# Ukraine - Superthread



## CougarKing

Hopefully, this won't lead to another dispute similar to the 2009 one between Ukraine and Russia which left Western European nations without gas.



> *Ukraine leader ignores Putin warning on EU path*
> Reuters
> By Richard Balmforth
> 
> KIEV (Reuters) - *Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich on Saturday re-affirmed his commitment to signing key agreements with the European Union, including on trade, despite a threat by Russia's Vladimir Putin of possible retaliatory measures.
> 
> Russia, the ex-Soviet republic's biggest trading partner, last week signaled growing alarm at Kiev's policy of European integration by conducting laborious extra customs checks on imports from Ukraine, causing delays at the border.*
> 
> Though Russia ended the customs checks after a few days, Putin last Thursday added to fears in Kiev of a possible trade war by saying that a free trade deal between Ukraine and the EU might "squeeze out" Russian goods.
> 
> *He warned that members of the Eurasian Customs Union linking Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan might have to take "protective measures" to defend their markets.
> 
> In an Independence Day speech on Saturday, Yanukovich, once regarded as being more Russia-friendly than his nationalist predecessor Viktor Yushchenko, pointedly ignored Putin's comments.*
> 
> While pledging to deepen relations with Russia and other customs union members, he indicated that Kiev was committed to signing agreements on political association and free trade with the EU at a summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, in November.
> 
> "For Ukraine, association with the European Union must become an important stimulus for forming a modern European state," he declared.
> 
> "At the same time, we must preserve and continue deepening our relations (and) processes of integration with Russia, countries of the Eurasian community, other world leaders and new centers of economic development," he said.
> 
> *Ukraine's economy relies heavily on exports of steel, coal, fuel and petroleum products, chemicals and grain. More than 60 percent of its exports go to other former Soviet republics, with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan the most important.
> 
> Ukrainian commentators see last week's customs checks as a warning shot by Moscow providing a foretaste of what can be expected if Ukraine opts for turning towards Europe and away from its former Soviet ally.*
> 
> Yanukovich, backed by powerful and wealthy business figures who see greater prosperity in European markets, has resisted entreaties by Moscow to join the Customs Union - a move which would be incompatible with a free trade agreement with the EU.
> 
> *But with Kiev still hopeful of securing a lower price for deliveries of costly Russian gas for the Ukrainian economy, Yanukovich needs to maintain good relations with Moscow.
> 
> He is sending his prime minister, Mykola Azarov, there on Monday to try to calm Russia's fears over Ukraine's moves towards Europe*.
> 
> In an Independence Day message of congratulations to Yanukovich, Putin on Saturday avoided any discord, expressing Russia's readiness to increase cooperation with Ukraine across the board.
> 
> It is far from a foregone conclusion that a political association agreement, including a free trade deal, will be signed in Vilnius in November even though Yanukovich wants it.
> 
> *Many EU member states are disappointed at the pace of democratic reform in Ukraine since Yanukovich was elected in February 2010 and are pressing particularly for the release from jail of former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, his fiercest political adversary.
> 
> Tymoshenko was jailed in late 2011 for seven years for abuse of office after what the EU says was a politically-motivated trial.*
> 
> (Editing by Tom Pfeiffer)


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## a_majoor

The Ukraine is in a difficult position, straddling the border between the Christian Civilization of Europe and the Orthadox Civiliation of Russia to use Samuel Huntington's terms. Perhaps the long term result might be the actual dismemberment of the Ukraine along the Dneiper River, with the western half becoming part of Europe while the eastern half becomes part of Russia.

Unless and until something like that happens, there will always be tension in the Ukraine as one half of the country is upset at the direction the other half wants to take (and the regional powers weigh in as well).


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## Kirkhill

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25292909

I don't think we've being paying enough attention to this situation.  I certainly haven't been hearing much about it.  

It seems that Ukraine is in the midst of a civil war in slow motion between the Moscow oriented horsemen-turned-coalminers on the east bank of the Dnieper, led by Yanukovych and the Western oriented farmers-turned-capitalists on the west bank.  The Orange Revolution / Civil War continues. (Or is it the Kulak War continues?)

Moscow has an emotional stake in this game.  Moscow's origins are as a Rus trading post among the Eastern Tribes at the edges of the Rus trading empire (kind of like York Factory).  The Rus are tightly connected to Sweden, Finland and Estonia - which share a common predilection with Ukraine for Blue and Gold as national colours. Moscow's ruling elements always considered themselves Rus, and have come to dominate the territory they call Russia.

But like many rulers in an effort to survive amongst their subjects they have essentially gone native.  They no longer share the same culture or value system as the people they claim to be.

The Dniepr represents the dividing line between the Rus heartland on the West Bank and the Steppes on the east bank.   For the Moscovites to lose the West Bank would leave them isolated from their "family" and adrift amongst people they don't really see as equals.

Short form, Moscow will fight for Kiev.  They may not be willing to put tanks on the street yet but they might if invited in after things turn violent.


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## Edward Campbell

There's another option ...

The EU offered Ukraine a bad deal, a half deal and the Ukrainians are calling their bluff by pursuing ties with Moscow.

Like it or not, Ukraine is a very Eastern European country with close and deep economic ties with Russia ... it really doesn't want to break many of those links.

This could just be another round in a process ...


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## Kirkhill

Indeed it just could be a ploy....

But there is a demonstrated cultural divide across the Dniepr that defines Ukraine (u = beside, krai = edge, border - Link) and an equally well demonstrated division in polities and personalities.

Yes the border region demonstrates a degree of schizophrenia but does that extend to towns or individuals?  Are the individuals on the west bank more eastern or western in their outlook?  Are the towns?

I know that a Ukrainian politician has to walk a tight-rope between east and west to maintain a peaceful society that can prosper.  But equally that divide can be exploited by those that might not wish to see the Ukraine prosper, at least not independently.

Either way I think it bears watching as another flashpoint - both for what it may mean for Russia (very little I believe) and what it may mean for Europe in general and the EU in particular (quite a lot due to the tottering economics and politics of that structure).


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## a_majoor

Actually it means a great deal for Russia. The Ukraine is an area rich in natural resources, which Russia can pillage to keep the tottering Russian economy afloat for a while longer. It is also the pathway to markets in Europe, which is the main source of Russia's income to date.

As well, it provides domestic and international legitimacy to Russia's claims to be a Regional and Great Power. If the Ukraine were to go to the EU, this would be a massive psychological blow to the Russian people.

So the Russians have a huge vested interest in keeping the Ukraine in the Russian orbit, while the West should be looking very carefully into how to extract the Ukraine from the Russian orbit into the Western one. Because of the historical and social history of the Ukraine on the borderland between two of Huntinton's "Civilizations", the ultimate answer may not be to have the Ukraine go from one to the other at all, but have "two" Ukraines, split along the Dnieper river (although this sort of solution would be very long term and not without severe difficulties of its own).


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## Kirkhill

Fair comment Thuc - the Ukraine is a nice to have "hold" for the Muscovites but I don't know if I consider it critical at anything beyond the emotional level.

Is there anything that Russia can't do if it doesn't hold Ukraine?  It can communicate with Europe by going north around through Byelorussia and Poland, or through the Baltic.  It can't get out of the Baltic without permission. But equally it can't get out of the Black Sea without permission either.  There is nothing that Ukraine produces (to my knowledge) that Russia doesn't have or can't produce on its own. Conversely Ukraine, like the EU, appears to need Russian hydrocarbons.

If Russia fails to hold onto Ukraine's Crimea then that would be a problem for the Black Sea fleet - a source of immense national pride but limited strategic value - due to that permission thing.

If the Ukraine were to split along the Lower Dniepr that would leave Odessa in Ukrainian hands but the Crimea and the Sea of Azov to the Russians.

The Black Sea Nations would then be Russia, Georgia, Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania and Ukraine with Turkey holding the lion's share of the coast - as well as the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles - and back to that permission thing.

I don't see Ukraine as anything other than an emotional issue - and as a result all the more dangerous a flashpoint.

Fighters motivated by the heart will hang in a lot longer than those motivated by the head..... as we are seeing in Syria with the rising dominance of the "fanatic" Islamists.


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## pbi

Thucydides said:
			
		

> Actually it means a great deal for Russia. The Ukraine is an area rich in natural resources, which Russia can pillage to keep the tottering Russian economy afloat for a while longer...As well, it provides domestic and international legitimacy to Russia's claims to be a Regional and Great Power. If the Ukraine were to go to the EU, this would be a massive psychological blow to the Russian people....



Which is why we probably want to step carefully here. I look at Russia as a mortally sick but still formidable monster, one which becomes much more dangerous as it becomes more desperate. IMHO, Russians do not react well to "_massive psychologicial blows_", particularly when these are perceived as having been engineered by hostile, scheming foreigners--the same villains who wrecked the Good Old Days (or was that the "Gulag Days"..oh, well..) and brought in a "phony" democracy and bandit capitalism.

I doubt that it would be very hard for Putin to convince the average ignorant, nationalistic, xenophobic Russian man in the street that it was necessary to intervene in the Ukraine just as it was in Georgia and Chechniya.

The last two or three days in Ukraine have been interesting, and maybe even encouraging, but I am waiting for the backlash of the "Russian Ukraine" and its patons in Moscow.


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## a_majoor

It looks like the protesters may have forced a decision for the EU after all:

http://www.cnn.com/2013/12/12/world/europe/ukraine-protests/



> *Ukraine leader intends to sign EU deal, diplomat says*
> By Marie-Louise Gumuchian and Diana Magnay, CNN
> updated 11:12 AM EST, Thu December 12, 2013
> 
> Ukraine battle over barricades
> STORY HIGHLIGHTS
> EU diplomat: Yanukovych "assured me ... he does intend to sign" deal on closer ties
> Vladimir Putin hopes "all political forces ... will manage to come to an agreement"
> Opposition dismisses Yanukovych's call for negotiations
> Protesters remain in Kiev square, paralyze center of capital
> 
> (CNN) -- Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych intends to sign a deal on closer European Union ties, the bloc's top diplomat has said, after weeks of mass protests that have rattled the Eastern European country.
> 
> Ukrainian protesters, angry about the government's decision last month to spurn a free-trade agreement with the EU in favor of closer economic ties with Moscow, have stood their ground in Kiev's Independence Square, or Maidan, paralyzing the center of the capital.
> 
> They have remained there, undeterred by authorities' overnight crackdown early Wednesday in which police tore down barricades they had set up.
> After meeting Yanukovych this week, EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said he had assured her of his intent.
> 
> Ukraine: 'How did things get so bad?' Russia gas reliance key in Ukraine The economics of Ukraine protests
> 
> "He indicated he still wishes to sign the Association Agreement with the European Union," she told CNN in Kiev on Wednesday.
> 
> "From our perspective, we think that's good for this country. But the present crisis that's happening right now needs to be resolved."
> A statement from the EU in Brussels, Belgium, on Thursday quoting Ashton echoed this: "The President has assured me when I've met him that he does intend to sign the Association Agreement."
> 
> Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Serhiy Arbuzov traveled to Brussels on Thursday, where he met Stefan Fule, European commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy, an EU spokesman in Kiev said.
> 
> In Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin briefly touched on the situation in the Ukraine in his State of the Nation address to the Federal Assembly on Thursday.
> 
> "I very much hope that all political forces of the country will manage to come to an agreement in the interest of the Ukrainian people and solve all the piles of problems," he said.
> 
> Opposition dismisses talks
> 
> Pressed by Europe and the United States, Yanukovych on Wednesday offered to meet opposition leaders to find a way out of a crisis that blew up last month when thousands poured into the streets of the capital, demanding his resignation.
> 
> "I invite representatives of all political forces, priests, public figures to hold the nationwide dialogue," he said in a statement on the official presidency website.
> 
> The statement also called on the opposition not to "choose the path of confrontation and ultimatums."
> 
> However, opposition leaders have dismissed the offer of talks, insisting that Yanukovych must quit for favoring ties with Russia over the EU.
> In a statement on her website, Yanukovych's jailed chief political opponent, Yulia Tymoshenko, urged Ukrainians to "stand up," and she repeated previous opposition calls for early elections.
> 
> U.S. 'disgust' at crackdown
> 
> Kiev's handling of the pro-EU protests has been met with stern responses from the European Union and United States.
> 
> Police moved into the main protest camp early Wednesday, using chainsaws to tear down the barriers, which had been manned by pro-Western demonstrators. Clashes led to reports of injuries on both sides.
> 
> "The United States expresses its disgust with the decision of Ukrainian authorities to meet the peaceful protest in ... Maidan Square with riot police, bulldozers, and batons, rather than with respect for democratic rights and human dignity," U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said in a prepared statement.
> 
> "This response is neither acceptable, nor does it befit a democracy."
> 
> In Washington, State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki told reporters Wednesday that "all options" were under consideration in Ukraine, including sanctions.
> 
> UK Foreign Secretary William Hague said he was "deeply concerned" about the Ukraine government's decision to send in riot police against peaceful protesters.
> 
> Thousands of demonstrators have been camped out for days in Independence Square. They also continue to occupy Kiev's City Hall.
> 
> The scenes of protest are reminiscent of the uprising that swept Yanukovych from office as prime minister nine years ago during the Orange Revolution.
> 
> East vs. West
> 
> Ukraine is split between pro-European regions in the west of the country and a more Russia-oriented east.
> 
> Protesters say an EU agreement would open borders to trade and set the stage for modernization and inclusion. They accuse Yanukovych of preparing to take the country into a Moscow-led customs union.
> 
> Moscow has leverage that may have affected Yanukovych's decision last month to backpedal on the EU talks because Russia supplies Ukraine with natural gas.
> 
> The EU is also pressuring Yanukovych to free Tymoshenko, who has languished in jail for two years after being convicted of abuse of power in 2011. The EU and other critics decried the verdict as a sham.
> 
> The Orange Revolution that swept Yanukovych from office in 2004 also brought the pro-Western Tymoshenko to power.
> 
> At the rallies in Independence Square, protesters have carried her picture.


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## a_majoor

The situation is getting worse in the Ukraine. The Russians have essentially bribed the Ukrainian leadership to turn away from the West, how the West reacts will be critical in how the Ukrainian people proceed (the shameful actions of the then new Obama administration ignoring the "Green revolution" in Iran and allowing the hard liners to win when at little cost they could have derailed a serious foreign policy threat should be something to keep in mind):

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/367372/how-we-can-help-ukraine-robert-zubrin



> *How We Can Help Ukraine*
> The brave men and women at the barricades in Kiev are fighting for freedom and rule of law.
> By Robert Zubrin
> 
> As the new year begins, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians are manning barricades in the central square of Kiev, continuing their month-long demonstrations demanding a path towards freedom from the corrupt Yanukovych dictatorship. Imprisoned opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko has called upon the West to support the Ukrainian people by freezing the out-of-country bank accounts that Viktor Yanukovych and his cronies use to sock away their loot.
> 
> It’s a good idea. Sanctions of that sort won’t harm the Ukrainian people at all, but will hit the regime’s ruling criminals right where it will hurt them the most. Vladimir Putin might be interested in pursuing his adviser Alexander Dugin’s dream of constructing a fascist “Eurasian Union” stretching from the Rhine to Vladivostok and from the Arctic to the Persian Gulf, but Yanukovych and his pals are in it for the money. They just scored $15 billion filched from the Russian people’s National Welfare Fund, courtesy of Mr. Putin’s Duginite geopolitical delusions, but it will do them little good if there is no place where they can safely stash the cash.
> 
> A number of European leaders have voiced support for the sanctions plan. The question is, will the Obama administration join them in striking a forceful blow for human dignity and liberty?
> This is a time when America should shine. But there is cause to doubt that it will. The reason is that in the midst of this crisis, the president has chosen to appoint as White House counsel Mr. John Podesta, a man whose brother, Anthony Podesta, is a high-level paid agent of the Yanukovych regime.
> 
> I know it sounds incredible, but there is no doubt about it whatsoever. According to Reuters, Anthony Podesta’s lobbying firm, the Podesta Group, has received over $900,000 in payments from the regime, using its European Center for a Modern Ukraine front organization as an intermediary. Other top Washington lobbyists are also serving the regime, including, to be nonpartisan about the matter, former Romney adviser Vin Weber. But Weber’s lack of principle is a private matter. Podesta has a direct connection to the president of the United States.
> 
> Americans need to wake up. The events unfolding in Ukraine right now are of global historic importance. The stakes are not just whether Ukraine will have a free-trade agreement with the European Union or the proposed Eurasian Union.  That is a substantial matter — Ukraine would do well to have free trade with Europe (as would Russia!) — but, as was the case with tea taxes in our own revolution, it is mainly a trigger. The real issue is whether a people has a government that reports to them, that rules in accordance with laws enacted with their consent, and that thus dignifies them with the rights and honors of citizenship, or whether human beings are to be subject to governments owned by oligarchical cliques, who use their misappropriated power to degrade and prey upon the ruled.
> 
> The Yanukovych regime is a mafia, which regularly threatens, imprisons, murders, or disappears political opponents as well as those whose possessions it covets. Dugin’s project is even worse: He envisions the creation of a Eurasian bloc, including not only the republics of the former Soviet Union, but also Germany, Central and Eastern Europe, Turkey, and Iran, united under the iron heel of a new totalitarian “fourth political theory” to oppose the West. According to Dugin, who bases most of his allegedly novel synthesis of Communism and Fascism on the geopolitical, legal, philosophical, and occult ideas of Nazi theorists Karl Haushofer, Rudolf Hess, Carl Schmitt, and Arthur Moeller van der Bruck, such a “Eurasist” continental block is needed to defeat the nefarious influence of the secret “Atlantic Order,” or “Atlantis” — the global mercantile maritime/cosmopolitan conspiracy whose liberal ideas have supposedly subverted traditional hierarchy-based landed societies since ancient times. “Liberalism,” says Dugin — meaning the whole Western consensus — “is an absolute evil. . . . Only a global crusade against the U.S., the West, globalization, and their political-ideological expression, liberalism, is capable of becoming an adequate response. . . . The American empire should be destroyed.”
> 
> It is to this dark program, which threatens not only the prospects for freedom in Ukraine and Russia, but the peace of the world, that Yanukovych has sold “his” country. It is against this program that the brave demonstrators in the Maidan are taking their stand.
> 
> They deserve America’s support. And, in such a crisis, America deserves a political leadership that does not include people who are taking silver from the other side.
> 
> — Robert Zubrin is president of Pioneer Energy and the author of Energy Victory. The paperback edition of his latest book, Merchants of Despair: Radical Environmentalists, Criminal Pseudo-Scientists, and the Fatal Cult of Antihumanism, has just been published by Encounter Books.


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## a_majoor

More on the situation ion the Ukraine. As the Pro Russian side seems to have effectively won this round, their attempts to suppress the pro Western half of the Ukraine suggests that a prolonged period of instability is going to begin on Europe's borderlands:

http://www.the-american-interest.com/articles/2014/01/19/yanukovych-is-courting-disaster-in-ukraine/



> *Yanukovych is Courting Disaster in Ukraine*
> HANNAH THOBURN
> 
> Ukraine’s Victor Yanukovich is stuck between a rock and a hard place. How he responds to the latest violence could fatally deepen rifts in an already divided country.
> 
> Published on January 19, 2014
> Pitched battles continue to rage in central Kiev after clashes erupted today between police and protestors. Gutted police vehicles burn and dozens have been injured after a huge protest against new government abuses and overreach turned violent.
> 
> The spark for this new wave of popular anger against the government was the Ukrainian parliament’s unceremonious adoption of a set of laws whose goal is to smother the anti-government protests that first emerged in November. Their effect may be the complete disintegration of the last 23 years worth of hard-fought democratic progress. As the Kyiv Post’s Katya Gorshchinskaya put it, “Welcome to the new police state. We call it Little Russia.”
> 
> And it is growing Russian influence—and the Ukrainian government’s attendant turn away from Western values—that triggered the start of protests in late November. When President Viktor Yanukovych declined to sign a long-planned Association Agreement with the European Union and opted instead for Russian money and suzerainty, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians took to streets around the country and pleaded for him to reconsider.  Instead of engaging in a dialogue with the protesters, Mr. Yanukovych has entrenched himself and chosen Putin’s methods for dispersing pesky disturbances.
> 
> The list of new crimes enumerated in the documents that some Ukrainians are calling “The Law on Dictatorship” is long and targets all segments of Ukraine’s protesting population. For example, participants in the collective driving protest movement “AutoMaidan” now face a two-year suspension of their licenses and confiscation of their vehicles for driving a car that “moves in a column of more than five.”
> 
> The new laws also take a page from recent Putin initiatives and target civil society organizations. Now NGOs that receive foreign funding must register as “foreign agents” within three months or be dissolved. They will also have to pay an 18% income tax and submit to a strict reporting regime. Those that are branded as “extremist” will be closed.
> 
> Defamation has been re-criminalized and “extremist activity”—which is poorly and broadly defined—can be punished by large fines and up to three years in prison. Online media outlets that have flourished throughout the protests will now have to contend with requirements to register themselves as “information agencies” and a very real possibility that the state will order internet providers to block their websites.
> 
> Those who have stood on Kiev’s central Independence Square for the last two months are threatened with 15 days in prison for wearing masks or helmets that are similar to those worn by law enforcement. Bullhorns are also banned. Additional prison sentences have been established for erecting tents or stages without permission from the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
> 
> By their nature, protests are an attention-seeking instrument and the Ukrainian protests have been the focus of much media interest. But Mr. Yanukovych is counting on the silent portion of the country to support him in quelling dissent, quieting the bothersome protests and returning Ukraine to some semblance of stability (95 percent of Ukrainians have called the country’s political situation “unstable” or “explosive”). His gamble is well-founded. Polling from late December shows that while 43% of Ukrainians do want to join the European Union now (13 points higher than any other option), fully 50% of Ukrainians do not support the Kiev protests. That latter statistic marks a turnaround in Ukraine’s tolerance for the protest—only weeks prior a majority had supported them. More significantly, only 31% of Ukrainians believe that the outcome of the protests will be positive for Ukraine.
> 
> Today’s violent protests may only strengthen ordinary Ukrainians’ desire to see an end to the bedlam. Many are only too happy to trade freedoms that they rarely use for peace and quiet. Cognizant that, in a nation where stability sells, events like today’s do not acquit the opposition forces well, the movement’s leaders have called on protestors to refrain from violence. They warn that many of the angry young men in the street are provocateurs paid by Yanukovych’s party to create chaos and turn the tide of public opinion fully against the protest movement.
> 
> But Mr. Yanukovych must also be careful in determining his next steps. Were he to aggressively enforce the new legislations or authorize brutality towards the protestors, he is courting the danger of swinging public opinion against him and seeing larger, angrier and more energized crowds emerge. As was demonstrated twice over the past weeks, the use of violence towards the protestors in Kiev has had a maximizing effect on the size and scope of the protesting crowds. Further violence or police crackdowns on protest activities will only exacerbate the situation.
> 
> Internal politics also complicate Yanukovych’s options. A large percentage of Ukrainians hold Mr. Yanukovych personally responsible for solving the current political crisis, but his choosing one side over the other will polarize this already divided country more than it has been before. Yanukovych’s political base is in eastern Ukraine, where the majority speak Russian and identify strongly with Russia. Only 17 percent of eastern Ukrainians approve of the protest movement and would be only too happy to see their president quash it in whatever manner he deems necessary. Meanwhile, 80 percent of citizens in the western and more European-leaning part of the country approve of the protest movement and disapprove of the president’s recent decisions. They did not vote for him and will not support him.
> 
> Viktor Yanukovych is thus stuck between a rock and a hard place. He needs Russian money and low gas prices—and the political influence that comes along with it—to keep Ukraine’s struggling economy afloat and his supporters in eastern Ukraine satisfied. But the visceral anger shown by many other of Ukraine’s citizens at his original decision to reject the European Union, last week’s move against basic civil liberties, and ever-rising levels of corruption may create an irreparable rift in the fabric of an already divided country.
> 
> Hannah Thoburn is a Eurasia analyst based in Washington, DC whose work has appeared in The Washington Post, The Atlantic and The National Interest.


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## a_majoor

Assuming things do go south in the Ukraine, there is little doubt that the Russians will become embroiled in it, and a civil war raging on the doorstep of Europe isn't likely to make for economic stability in the EUZone either...

http://www.businessweek.com/printer/articles/666589?type=bloomberg



> http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-01-24/ukraine-warned-of-civil-war-by-eu-as-unrest-spreads-to-regions
> *Ukrainian Policeman Shot Dead as Foreign Mediation Urged*
> 
> By Daryna Krasnolutska, Ott Ummelas and Volodymyr Verbyany January 24, 2014
> A Ukrainian policeman was shot dead in the capital as violence resumed after the premier and the opposition called for foreign mediation to stem the unrest.
> 
> A 27-year-old police officer was found shortly before midnight in Kiev with a gunshot would to the head, the Interior Ministry said on its website. Prime Minister Mykola Azarov said yesterday that he’s speaking to Swiss President Didier Burkhalter, while opposition leader Vitali Klitschko urged an international presence at talks that have so far failed to quell the anti-government protests.
> 
> President Viktor Yanukovych is struggling to stem rallies against his November snub of a European Union cooperation deal, with police crackdowns fanning people’s anger. Four days of clashes left as many as six dead and 1,250 injured as laws to stem the protests took effect and police got special powers to quell the demonstrations. Opposition politicians have been frustrated in their demands for snap elections.
> 
> “The situation in Ukraine is very explosive,” billionaire ex-Economy Minister Petro Poroshenko, who backs the protest movement, said yesterday from Davos, Switzerland. “If the government behaves as if nothing is happening in the country, it will considerably complicate the search for a way out.”
> 
> The yield on government bonds due 2023 rose 19 basis points yesterday to 9.559 percent, advancing for a fifth straight day. The hryvnia was 0.1 percent higher at 8.435 per dollar, having declined by 0.7 percent in the previous session.
> 
> New Clashes
> 
> Clashes resumed shortly after 10 p.m. near parliament as protesters threw Molotov cocktails and rocks and police responded with rubber bullets and stun grenades. The Interior Ministry said witnesses heard shots and saw two people running away before the policeman’s body was discovered.
> 
> Azarov said Switzerland’s tradition of neutrality makes it a candidate to assist in negotiations with the opposition, who want snap elections and the repeal of the anti-protest laws. Klitschko said in a statement that Yanukovych wasn’t using “common sense” during their talks.
> 
> “Top Swiss officials haven’t made any comments that could be considered biased,” Azarov said yesterday in Davos. “Switzerland is a neutral country that currently chairs the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. OSCE help is very important in resolving of the conflict.”
> 
> The Swiss Foreign Ministry said by e-mail that Burkhalter offered Azarov the OSCE’s “support and expertise” to search for ways out of the crisis.
> 
> Building Seizures
> 
> While this week’s escalation in the protest movement occurred in Kiev, the focus has now switched to the regions as buildings of governors picked by Yanukovych were taken over by activists in the western cities of Lviv, Ternopil, Rivne, Lutsk, Ivano-Frankivsk and Khmelnytskyi.
> 
> Activists also targeted administrative offices in at least five more of the nation’s 24 regions, smashing their way in when police offered resistance, Ukrainian 5 TV reported. Police detained 58 protesters in the Cherkasy region for attempting a takeover, the Interior Ministry said.
> 
> European Union justice chief Viviane Reding warned of the risk of civil war, CNBC reported.
> 
> As the unrest spread, Yanukovych made personnel changes. He named Andriy Klyuyev as head of his administration, promoting the Security Council chief protesters have called on to resign after demonstrators were injured in 2012 clashes with police.
> 
> Yanukovych Exit
> 
> Even so, the president ceded some ground, promising a cabinet shuffle and changes to the anti-rally bill at an emergency parliament session called for Jan. 28. Klitschko told reporters later that protesters won’t be satisfied until the president resigns.
> 
> Parliament will also consider a no-confidence motion against the government next week, Svoboda party head Oleh Tyahnybok said Jan. 23 after hours of talks with Yanukovych. Crowds on Independence Square raged at the lack of concessions won by opposition politicians, whistling as Tyahnybok spoke.
> 
> As part of a deal struck two days ago, three of the 103 activists who’ve been detained were freed yesterday morning. It’s unclear when crisis negotiations will resume, Natalia Lysova, spokeswoman for jailed ex-premier Yulia Tymoshenko’s party, said yesterday by phone.
> 
> “I don’t see talks leading to anything -- it’s been tried so many times,” said Ivan, a 20-year-old in an army helmet who’s been at Independence Square for a month and who declined to give his last name. “We’ll achieve something once the president resigns.”
> 
> Ministry Occupied
> 
> Demonstrators seized the Agriculture Ministry building near their tent camp yesterday to shelter from temperatures of minus 18 degrees Celsius (zero Fahrenheit) and set up a first-aid point, Interfax reported.
> 
> The protests that have gripped Kiev since last year escalated this week with the first deaths. Police are investigating the discovery Jan. 22 of two bodies with gunshot wounds. Live ammunition caused the deaths, the Interior Ministry said Jan. 23, denying its officers fired the bullets.
> 
> The opposition says five people have died, including one who fell off a colonnade after being beaten and another who was identified by his relatives after police found a body outside Kiev with signs of torture. A thousand people have been injured, while an instigator of car protests that targeted officials’ homes is missing, activists say. About 250 policemen have sought medical help, the Interior Ministry said.
> 
> EU officials, who’ve said they may reassess their relations with Ukraine after the violence, are seeking to broker a peace deal in Kiev. Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Fule met Yanukovych and opposition yesterday, while Catherine Ashton, the bloc’s foreign-policy chief, is due. Jan. 30-31.
> 
> Sitting at Independence Square next to an old metal barrel with burning firewood, Oleksandr, a 54-year-old electrician from Kamyanets-Podilsky in western Ukraine who declined to give his last name, urged a negotiated end to the crisis.
> 
> “I don’t think opposition leaders should change what they’re doing -- it’s better to reach our goals through peaceful talks,” he said. “We’re all humans, we’re all Ukrainians, even though there are good and bad people on both sides.”
> 
> To contact the reporters on this story: Daryna Krasnolutska in Kiev at dkrasnolutsk@bloomberg.net; Ott Ummelas in Kiev at oummelas@bloomberg.net; Volodymyr Verbyany in Kiev at vverbyany1@bloomberg.net
> 
> To contact the editor responsible for this story: Balazs Penz at bpenz@bloomberg.net



The Russians occupying the Ukraine to the East bank of the Dneiper River formalizes the existing "civilizational" divisions, crossing the Dneiper is really an invasion of Europe, using force to apply "Slavic" or Orthadox" civilizational values on a "European" population.

Edit to add this interesting piece, which compares the situation in the Ukraine with the "Social Wars" fought by the _Res Publica Roma_ against its allied states in Italy:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2014/01/24/ukraine-and-the-social-war/



> *Ukraine and the “Social War”*
> BY DAVID POST
> January 24 at 11:27 am
> 
> For three years, beginning in 91 B.C., the Roman Republic was convulsed by the “Social War” – the war between Rome and its “Socii” (allies).   These Allies were semi-independent states on the Italian peninsula which had treaty relationships with Rome, under which Rome granted them a large degree of  (indeed, almost total) autonomy in their local affairs, in return for their promise to provide Rome with soldiers when needed.  Many of these treaties had been in place for hundreds of years.
> 
> Two things make this war of particular interest.  The first is how brutal and bloody it was.  The Allies knew how to fight just like, and as well as, the Romans; they had formed the bulk of the Roman army for many, many years, and they understood all too well the many secrets of the mighty Roman military machine.  So the war matched two armies that were basically carbon copies of one another, and the slaughter was prodigious because no one could gain the upper hand.
> 
> But even more astonishing, the Allies’ demand was simple — they were not fighting to throw off Roman domination and the yoke of the foreign power, they were fighting to get into, and under the umbrella of, Rome.  They wanted full Roman citizenship – to which they believed they were entitled, given the services they had performed for Rome in helping it to conquer the entire Mediterranean basin.  Fighting to get in, rather than to get out; maybe I’m just not that well-informed, but I can’t think of another war like it in history.
> 
> [And after three years of more-or-less stalemated military action, the allies largely prevailed and they became part of Rome, eligible for electing Rome's officers and legislators, and for the land and other benefits distributed to Roman citizens]
> 
> I have long thought that it is the crowning achievement, in a way, of the Roman Republic – that people wanted so much to become Roman citizens that they would die in the cause.
> 
> I thought of this when reading about the terrible events in Ukraine, which have too many earmarks of a catastrophe waiting to happen.  The “rebels” in the streets of Kiev want in, also – to “Europe,” and all that entails.  And though there are many things about the way Europe governs itself and manages its affairs that one can be critical of, it is something of a tribute to its current incarnation that it means as much as it does to the demonstrators.


----------



## Robert0288

I have a bad feeling that Ukraine is going to get much worse before it gets better.  Oh and add another dimension to this.  While the article mentioned that Ukraine needed Russian gas and oil, nowhere did it say that at any time Russia can cut off petroleum exports like they did in 2006.


----------



## Kirkhill

When you reach the stage where 43% of the population is adamant about a position (must join the EU) and are apparently willing to act in support of that position, or at least not oppose those so acting, the fact that 50% of the population would prefer it all just went away is irrelevant.

Northern Ireland, the American Revolution, even Quebec separatism, were all sustained with much lower levels of support.

Ukraine is back to its unfortunate historic geopolitical situation - the wildlands between competing tribes.  (Poland and Lithuania have shared much of that same dynamic).


----------



## George Wallace

There is no easy solution here.  Russia has for years been flooding the Eastern parts of the Ukraine with Russian émigrés to further protect and justify its strategic hold on the Ukrainian Black Sea coast.  Don't forget that the Russian Black Sea Fleet home ports are in the Ukraine.  Russia has some very serious Strategic interests here.


----------



## a_majoor

Robert0288 said:
			
		

> I have a bad feeling that Ukraine is going to get much worse before it gets better.  Oh and add another dimension to this.  While the article mentioned that Ukraine needed Russian gas and oil, nowhere did it say that at any time Russia can cut off petroleum exports like they did in 2006.



Things are a bit different now. Fracking is a demonstrated and mature technology. While the Greens may have a large influence on European politics, even they are not going to coonvince Europeans to freeze in the dark if an alternative exists (and Europe has "frackable" reserves of natural gas). Giant new gas fields off the coasts of Cyprus and Israel are being developed even now, and the United States can export NG as well. I rather doubt the Europeans would say "no" to a pipeline that delivered Albertan oil to the East Coast for export either.  

Some of these developments were actually in response to the last round of Russian thuggishness, but as most people know, oil and gas are fungable commodities, and people will go to where they can get their energy fix. Breaking the monopoly has the secondary effect of reducing one of the largest sources of cash flow to the Russian State, and hampers any number of initiatives that Putin and co. would like to take.


----------



## CougarKing

Seems the Ukrainian military is just as divided as the country. The Ukraine seems to be divided between those in the western part of the country (as in west of the Dnepr river which cuts the country in half) who support moving closer to the EU, while those in the industrial east have traditionally been closer to Russia.  

The article's writer below seems to say that the Ukrainian enlisted soldiers seem to support the west, while the officers seem to support the east/Russia/Yanukovych.

Defense News



> *Analysts: Army Loyalties Divided On Ukraine Protests*
> Feb. 3, 2014 - 03:24PM   |   By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESS
> 
> KIEV — Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych is unlikely to move the army against protesters despite opposition warnings about an imminent intervention — mainly because the loyalty of rank-and-file soldiers could be in doubt, analysts said.
> 
> *“The core of the army is made up of young people who grew up in an independent Ukraine,” said Valentyn Badrak, director of the Research Centre for the Army, Demilitarisation and Disarmament in Kiev.*
> 
> “They are members of a younger generation that feels very close to the aspirations of the Maidan,” or Independence Square in the center of Kiev, the epicenter of Ukraine’s protest movement, Badrak told AFP.
> 
> 
> *“The high command is made up mostly of officers and generals who grew up in Soviet times and they have a certain discipline*, they are ready to obey any order,” he said.
> 
> But lower ranks “feel the financial and social difficulties” in Ukraine, he said.
> 
> *The opposition has been warning for weeks that Yanukovych could be preparing to impose emergency rule by calling the army into the streets, prompting international concern.
> 
> The prospect appeared to become more concrete last Friday when the army asked Yanukovych to take “urgent measures” to end a two-month crisis that has claimed at least four lives and left parts of central Kiev looking like a war zone.*
> 
> The 63-year-old president has battled protests sparked by his decision to ditch key economic and political agreements with the European Union.
> 
> The pro-EU protest movement has turned into an all-out drive to oust Yanukovych.
> 
> 'In a pitiful state'
> 
> Since the country’s 1991 independence from the Soviet Union, the army has always remained neutral.
> 
> The military remained above the fray during the pro-democracy 2004 “Orange Revolution” which brought pro-Western opposition leaders to power in a confrontation over an election that was fraudulently won by Yanukovych.
> 
> Badrak said imposing emergency rule “will be virtually impossible” because of low morale in a country in which military spending has been a low priority.
> 
> *“The army is in a pitiful state. An officer with the rank of lieutenant colonel earns as much as a cashier at a supermarket” — or around €300 ($405) a month,* he said.
> 
> “And spending keeps going down,” he said.
> 
> Sergiy Zgurets, another military expert, said the army’s call on Yanukovych was only “a show of loyalty” to the president.
> *
> In fact “the military is divided,” he said.
> 
> The Ukrainian military’s chief-of-staff, General Volodymyr Zamana, struck a more conciliatory tone on Saturday saying that “no one has the right to use the armed forces to limit the rights of citizens.”*
> 
> Defence Minister Pavlo Lebedev also said that “a crushing majority of 87 percent” of the army supported Yanukovych — a statement that points to at least some dissent.
> 
> *“That means 13 percent of the army do not support hardline methods and military action to end the protests,” former Defence Minister Anatoliy Grytsenko, who is now an opposition politician, told AFP.*
> 
> “Even taking into account the pressure from the ‘tsar,’ this is a good result,” he said.
> 
> *Grytsenko also said that a telegram has been going round army units asking them to pledge loyalty to Yanukovych.*
> 
> “I know that despite the difficulty of the situation there are honest officers in the armed forces who are not signing it.
> 
> “I also know of some cases in which the high command is sacking them.”


----------



## CougarKing

Somehow I just can't imagine the Ukraine being an EU member despite the amount of support for it in the western part of the country and among Ukrainian youth. Unless the country splits.

Reuters



> *'Time is on our side', says EU in showdown over Ukraine*
> 
> BRUSSELS (Reuters) - If there is a consistent message the European Union has tried to send since Ukraine rejected a trade deal last November in favor of stronger ties with Moscow, it is that it does not want to end up in a tug-of-war with Russia.
> 
> But whether the EU likes it or not, that is precisely what has come to pass and the future of Ukraine - its 46 million people and its faltering economy - hangs in the balance.
> 
> In a speech to a security conference in Munich last weekend, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy laid out the nature of the struggle in simple terms.
> 
> The EU, he said, had offered Ukraine a free trade and association agreement to help it build bridges with its neighbors to the west. That offer still stood, as long as the conditions agreed between Kiev and Brussels were met.
> 
> *"Some people think Europeans are naive, that we prefer carrots to sticks," Van Rompuy told the conference, whose delegates included Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and a leader of Ukraine's opposition movement.
> 
> "Now I am not saying that we cannot sometimes play our hand more strongly. But surely it is a bad idea to let foul play undercut the very values that constitute our power of attraction in the first place - a power of attraction that brought down the Berlin Wall," he said.
> 
> "Our biggest carrot is our way of life; our biggest stick: a closed door."*
> 
> ARM WRESTLE
> 
> The targets of Van Rompuy's words, without being named, were Russia's Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich, who sparked the crisis by abruptly turning his back on an EU free trade deal and throwing his lot in with Moscow.
> 
> Yanukovich's security forces have cracked down on pro-EU demonstrators - at least five protesters have been killed - while Russia has enticed Kiev away from the EU with the promise of $15 billion in cheap loans and cut-price gas.
> 
> Some diplomats expected the EU to wash its hands and walk away. It cannot match Russia's inducements on either the financial or energy-security front. Instead, it appears to be playing a long game.
> 
> After EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton was quoted as saying Brussels and Washington were working on assistance for Kiev, EU officials were quick to say there was no new plan apart from the promise of financial help that Brussels had held out if it signed the trade agreement.
> 
> Even without the impact of the last four years of financial crisis, EU leaders are not about to open their coffers and disburse huge sums to Ukraine. It was hard enough to do so for Greece, Portugal and Ireland.
> 
> *And, dependent on Russian energy themselves, EU member states cannot hope to provide Kiev with the gas it needs, especially as much of it flows to them via Ukraine.*
> 
> What Europe has to offer is more conceptual: rule of law, democratic accountability, civil liberties and long-term trade and investment, as long as certain objectives are met.
> 
> Next to the sugar rush of money and cheap gas, it may not seem particularly attractive, especially given the costs Ukraine faces if it is ever to meet EU standards on judicial, industrial and environmental reform.
> 
> But as Van Rompuy pointed out, the course of history is not decided in a matter of weeks or months. The Berlin Wall may have collapsed almost overnight and the Soviet Union crumbled quickly, but those moments were years in the making.
> 
> "Sometimes in the heat of events, in the stream of declarations and tweets, we lose sight of the time factor," he told the Munich conference.
> 
> "We frantically look at hours and days, forgetting the years and decades. We lose sight of slow evolutions, of subtle trends. Subtler than the 'decline of the West' or the 'rise of the Rest'."
> 
> Moscow views Ukraine as a heartland of Russian culture and identity, a country that should never have left the Soviet Union. Russia remains Ukraine's biggest trading partner.
> 
> *Putin wants Ukraine to join his Eurasian Union, a new economic and trade bloc he hopes will some day rival the EU. In that regard, he sees Brussels' overtures to Kiev as a threat.
> 
> In an arm-wrestle with the EU, Russia has the muscle. But in a long-run contest involving a way of life and integration with the global economy, the EU hopes it has a persuasive case - and one it says is not to the detriment of Russia.*
> 
> "The offer is still there," Van Rompuy said of the agreement Yanukovich rejected last year. "We know time is on our side. The future of Ukraine belongs with the European Union."
> 
> (Editing by Mike Peacock)


----------



## CougarKing

Sigh. So much for her being a diplomat if she can't contain herself...  

Agence-France Presse via the Times of India



> *'F*** THE EU' | Americans red-faced over top diplomat's leaked phone call*
> 
> By:  Agence France-Presse
> February 7, 2014 7:22 PM
> 
> KIEV -* The United States tried to contain fallout Friday from a leaked phone conversation in which a top diplomat uses the "f-word" regarding the European Union's handling of the crisis in Ukraine.*
> 
> The embarrassing diplomatic incident comes as Ukraine's President Viktor Yanukovych was due to hold crisis talks with Russian counterpart and ally Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics in Sochi.
> 
> Washington and Brussels have engaged in a diplomatic standoff with Kiev and Moscow over mass protests that erupted in Ukraine in November when Yanukovych rejected a pact with the EU in favour of closer ties with former Soviet master Russia.
> 
> But the leaked phone call appears to reveal US frustration with the EU over the handling of the long-running crisis.
> 
> Washington's new top diplomat for Europe, *Victoria Nuland*, apologized Thursday for her comments.
> 
> *"F*** the EU," Nuland says in what appeared to be a recent phone call with US ambassador to Kiev, Geoff Pyatt, which was somehow intercepted and uploaded onto YouTube accompanied by Russian captions.*
> 
> 'New low in Russian tradecraft'
> 
> *The US State Department was left fuming after the leak, pointing the finger at Russia for allegedly bugging the diplomats' phones.
> 
> "Certainly we think this is a new low in Russian tradecraft," said spokeswoman Jen Psaki, who did not dispute the authenticity of the call.*
> 
> In the recording, which went viral after being re-posted by an aide to Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, Nuland and Pyatt discuss frankly which opposition figures should go into the new Ukrainian government.
> 
> "That would be great I think to help glue this thing and have the UN glue it and you know, frig the EU," Nuland says, in apparent frustration at policy differences.
> 
> The conversation appeared to have been held shortly after Yanukovych accepted his pro-Russian government's resignation on January 28.
> 
> Nuland, currently in Kiev, is expected to speak with the media later Friday.
> 
> *State Department spokeswoman Psaki said Nuland had already apologised to her counterparts in Brussels, who refused to be drawn into the controversy on Friday.*
> 
> "The EU is engaged in helping the people of Ukraine through the current political crisis. We don't comment on leaked alleged telephone conversations," said a spokeswoman for EU foreign affairs head Catherine Ashton, refusing further comment.
> 
> Russia also had no official reaction to the call while the aide who posted it, Dmitry Loskutov, said that he was browsing the Internet when he saw it on his "friend's feed in a social network."
> 
> The leak came as diplomatic tensions over Ukraine flared between the two former Cold War foes, with Putin's economic adviser Sergei Glazyev accusing Washington of funding the protesters and even supplying them with ammunition.
> 
> "According to our information, American sources spend $20 million a week on financing the opposition and rebels, including on weapons," Glazyev, a hawkish advisor viewed as the Kremlin pointman on Ukraine told the Ukrainian edition of Kommersant newspaper shortly before the leak went viral.
> 
> Time ticking for Ukraine's economy
> 
> In Russia's Black Sea city of Sochi, Yanukovych was expected to discuss a critical bailout deal for his crisis-hit country.
> 
> In December, Putin promised Yanukovych the $15 billion bailout but said last week the financing would not be released in full until the formation of a new government in Kiev.
> 
> Only $3 billion has so far been transferred to Ukraine.
> 
> Yanukovych flew to Sochi shortly after naming his close ally Sergiy Arbuzov as acting prime minister and is likely to try to convince Moscow that the government is still committed to the terms of the bailout.
> 
> *Meanwhile a prominent Ukrainian activist who was kidnapped, tortured and left for dead last month said he believed Russian special forces were behind the ordeal.
> 
> Dmytro Bulatov, who was dumped in a forest outside Kiev in late January, said his captors were most interested in his alleged connections to the United States.
> 
> "I told them that the American ambassador had given me $50,000," said Bulatov, the organiser of protest group Automaidan. "It was so scary, it was so painful that I asked them to kill me. I lied because I could not stand the pain."
> 
> "I had a thought that they were Russian special forces" because of the way they spoke and "professionally" inflicted wounds, he said in a press-conference in Vilnius.*


----------



## pbi

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> Seems the Ukrainian military is just as divided as the country. The Ukraine seems to be divided between those in the western part of the country (as in west of the Dnepr river which cuts the country in half) who support moving closer to the EU, while those in the industrial east have traditionally been closer to Russia.
> 
> The article's writer below seems to say that the Ukrainian enlisted soldiers seem to support the west, while the officers seem to support the east/Russia/Yanukovych.
> 
> Defense News



I think this is an inherent danger in the armies of authoritarian states (as distinct from the police and security services, which are usually more politically reliable). It gets worse in conscripted armies (although the Ukrainian Army recently moved to an all volunteer force). The officer class are probably politically indoctrinated and reliable, but the lower NCOs and privates are probably less so., and may actively identify with the protestors.

This probably explains why most authoritarian states have some kind of intermediate or heavy gendarmerie force that can counterbalance the Army if needed. (Think of the SS, or the KGB ground forces)

IIRC , during the Solidarity crisis in Poland, the Communist govt relied wholly on the police because the conscript Army was unreliable.


----------



## CougarKing

pbi said:
			
		

> (Think of the SS, or the KGB ground forces)



Or even China's 1.5 million strong People's Armed Police (PAP), who have their Mi8 helos and APCs as well. Their main mission is to crush all dissent or internal threats to the Chinese Communist Party, such as the unrest in Xinjiang and Tibet. (even if the regular Chinese military- the PLA- also does these missions as well as respond to external threats)


----------



## 57Chevy

Articles and videos are shared with provisions of The Copyright Act

(video) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hvds2AIiWLA&feature=youtu.be

(video) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFUYcKo2g_k



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2561895/Protesters-clash-police-Ukraines-capital.html

Ukraine's political crisis took a deadly turn today, as at least 14 people, including six police officers, were reported to have been killed with dozens more injured in violent clashes between protesters and police outside Ukraine's parliament.

In the worst day since the demonstrations erupted 12 weeks ago, protesters on Independence Square responded to riot police with petrol bombs, fireworks and stones. 

As darkness fell, opposition leaders warned that security forces may be preparing to clear a sprawling protest tent camp on Kiev's Independence Square. Law enforcement agencies vowed to bring order to the streets and shut down subway stations in the capital. 

WARNING: GRAPHIC CONTENT


----------



## Kirkhill

Note to self:

Testudo ineffective against Molotovs.

I can't help feel sorry for the poor buggers with the shields.  The other side seems to equipped by the same Quartermaster.


----------



## tomahawk6

Image of a priest standing between police and protestors.


----------



## 57Chevy

An important and interesting short history

Ukraine: 
 The Most important Soviet  Republic
 Nasser Qaedi   February, 1998

Ukraine:
'The Bread Basket of Europe'
Jessica Dean, February, 1998

http://econc10.bu.edu/economic_systems/NatIdentity/FSU/Ukraine/bread_basket.htm

                                         Combined articles at link are shared with provisions of The Copyright Act


----------



## Kirkhill

67 dead and 562 wounded

Video Link

Edit:  Crowd Control - Soviet Style


----------



## Hisoyaki

The economic future of Ukraine is very bleak. Standard and Poors have just downgraded its credit rating yesterday.

http://www.businessinsider.com/standard-and-poors-on-ukraine-2014-2


----------



## vonGarvin

A bankrupt Ukraine with no chance of economic recovery has apparently decided to join the ranks of Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, etc.   

Enjoy the cold winters ahead.


----------



## CougarKing

A major change in Ukraine as Yanukovich flees to the pro-Russian eastern half of the country: let's hope this doesn't lead to civil war.

National Post



> *Ukraine President Viktor Yanukovych flees east as protestors cement control of Kyiv*
> 
> KYIV, Ukraine — *Protesters took control of Ukraine’s capital Saturday, seizing the president’s office as parliament sought to oust him and form a new government*.
> 
> *President Viktor Yanukovych left Kyiv for his support base in the country’s Russian-speaking east*, where lawmakers questioned the legitimacy of central authorities and called for volunteer militias to uphold order.
> 
> After a tumultuous week that left scores dead and Ukraine’s political destiny in flux, fears mounted that the country could split in two.
> 
> (...)- EDITED


----------



## vonGarvin

Correlation isn't causation necessarily, but...


----------



## Cdn Blackshirt

I'm very worried what Putin will do here....

Very scary situation.


M.


----------



## tomahawk6

Putin's real interest is the naval base it leases from Ukraine.Maybe he makes a move to incorporate that area into Russia ?


----------



## devil39

Interesting STRATFOR geopolitical analysis that further highlights Russia's interest in the Ukraine... Russia's  indefensibility.  If nothing else the Ukraine offers tactical depth.

http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Articles/Detail/?lng=en&id=171826

Part 1



> The Geopolitics of Russia: Permanent Struggle
> Border guard outpost near Khushet, North Caucasus, courtesy of RIA Novosti/Wikimedia Commons
> Creative Commons - Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported Creative Commons - Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported
> 
> Border Guard Outpost near Khushet, North Caucasus
> 
> Stratfor thinks that Russia is locked into a permanent regional security dilemma. Instability along its borders has led to policies that aim to protect the center from ‘local’ security problems. These policies, however, are now a problem in their own right – they threaten to undermine the very fabric of the Russian state.
> 
> Russia's defining characteristic is its indefensibility. Unlike the core of most states that are relatively defensible, core Russia is limited to the region of the medieval Grand Principality of Muscovy. It counts no rivers, oceans, swamps or mountains marking its borders -- it relies solely on the relatively inhospitable climate and its forests for defense. Russian history is a chronicle of the agony of surviving invasion after invasion.
> STRATFOR Geopolitics of Russia Image 1
> Copyright
> 
> Muscovy's geographic challenges.
> 
> Traditionally these invasions have come from two directions. The first is from the steppes -- wide open grasslands that connect Russia to Central Asia and beyond -- the path that the Mongols used. The second is from the North European Plain, which brought to Russia everything from the Teutonic Knights to the Nazi war machine.
> 
> To deal with these vulnerabilities, Russia expanded in three phases. In the first, Russia expanded not toward the invasion corridors to establish buffers but away from them to establish a redoubt. In the late 15th century, under Ivan III, Russia did creep westward somewhat, anchoring itself at the Pripet Marshes, which separated Russia from the Kiev region. But the bulk of Russia's expansion during that period was north to the Arctic and northeast to the Urals. Very little of this territory can be categorized as useful -- most was taiga or actual tundra and only lightly populated -- but for Russia it was the only land easily up for grabs. It also marked a natural organic outgrowth of the original Muscovy -- all cloaked in forest. It was as defensible a territory as Russia had access to and their only hope against the Mongols.
> 
> STRATFOR Geopolitics of Russia Image 2
> Copyright
> 
> Russian expansion phases.
> 
> The Mongols were horsemen who dominated the grasslands with their fast-moving cavalry forces. Their power, although substantial, diminished when they entered the forests and the value of their horses, their force multipliers, declined. The Mongols had to fight infantry forces in the forests, where the advantage was on the defender's side.
> 
> The second phase of expansion was far more aggressive -- and risky. In the mid-16th century, Under Ivan IV, Russia finally moved to seal off the Mongol invasion route. Russia pushed south and east, deep into the steppes, and did not stop until it hit the Urals in the east and the Caspian Sea and Caucasus Mountains in the south. As part of this expansion, Russia captured several strategically critical locations, including Astrakhan on the Caspian, the land of the Tatars -- a longtime horse-mounted foe -- and Grozny, which was soon transformed into a military outpost at the foot of the Caucasus.
> 
> Also with this expansion, Ivan IV was transformed from Grand Prince of Moscow to Tsar of All Russia, suggesting the empire to come. Russia had finally achieved a measure of conventional security. Holding the northern slopes of the Caucasus would provide a reasonable defense from Asia Minor and Persia, while the millions of square kilometers of steppes gave birth to another defensive strategy: buffers.
> 
> Russia -- modern, medieval or otherwise -- cannot count on natural features to protect it. The Pripet Marshes were small and could in many cases simply be avoided. There is no one who might wish to attack from the Arctic. Forests slowed the Mongol horsemen, but as Muscovy's predecessor -- Kievan Rus -- aptly demonstrated, the operative word was “slowed,” not “stopped.” The Mongols conquered and destroyed Kievan Rus in the 13th century.
> 
> That leaves buffers. So long as a country controls territory separating itself from its foes -- even if it is territory that is easy for a hostile military to transit -- it can bleed out any invasion via attrition and attacks on supply lines. Such buffers, however, contain a poison pill. They have populations not necessarily willing to serve as buffers. Maintaining control of such buffers requires not only a sizable standing military for defense but also a huge internal security and intelligence network to enforce central control. And any institution so key to the state's survival must be very tightly controlled as well. Establishing and maintaining buffers not only makes Russia seem aggressive to its neighbors but also forces it to conduct purges and terrors against its own institutions in order to maintain the empire.
> 
> The third expansion phase dealt with the final invasion route: from the west. In the 18th century, under Peter and Catherine the Great, Russian power pushed westward, conquering Ukraine to the southwest and pushing on to the Carpathian Mountains. It also moved the Russian border to the west, incorporating the Baltic territories and securing a Russian flank on the Baltic Sea. Muscovy and the Tsardom of Russia were now known as the Russian Empire.
> 
> Yet aside from the anchor in the Carpathians, Russia did not achieve any truly defensible borders. Expansions to the Baltic and Black Seas did end the external threat from the Cossacks and Balts of ages past, but at the price of turning those external threats into internal ones. Russia also expanded so far and fast that holding the empire together socially and militarily became a monumental and ongoing challenge (today Russia is dealing with the fact that Russians are barely a majority in their own country). All this to achieve some semblance of security by establishing buffer regions.
> 
> But that is an issue of empire management. Ultimately the multi-directional threat defined Muscovy's geopolitical problem. There was a constant threat from the steppes, but there was also a constant threat from the west, where the North European Plain allowed for few natural defenses and larger populations could deploy substantial infantry (and could, as the Swedes did, use naval power to land forces against the Muscovites). The forests provided a degree of protection, as did the sheer size of Russia's holdings and its climate, but in the end the Russians faced threats from at least two directions. In managing these threats by establishing buffers, they were caught in a perpetual juggling act: east vs. west, internal vs. external.
> 
> The geography of the Russian Empire bequeathed it certain characteristics. Most important, the empire was (and remains) lightly settled. Even today, vast areas of Russia are unpopulated while in the rest of the country the population is widely distributed in small towns and cities and far less concentrated in large urban areas. Russia's European part is the most densely populated, but in its expansion Russia both resettled Russian ethnics and assimilated large minorities along the way. So while Moscow and its surroundings are certainly critical, the predominance of the old Muscovy is not decisively ironclad.
> 
> STRATFOR Geopolitics of Russia Image 3
> Copyright
> 
> Russian population densitiy.
> 
> The result is a constant, ingrained clash within the Russian Empire no matter the time frame, driven primarily by its size and the challenges of transport. The Russian empire, even excluding Siberia, is an enormous landmass located far to the north. Moscow is at the same latitude as Newfoundland while the Russian and Ukrainian breadbaskets are at the latitude of Maine, resulting in an extremely short growing season. Apart from limiting the size of the crop, the climate limits the efficiency of transport -- getting the crop from farm to distant markets is a difficult matter and so is supporting large urban populations far from the farms. This is the root problem of the Russian economy. Russia can grow enough to feed itself, but it cannot efficiently transport what it grows from the farms to the cities and to the barren reaches of the empire before the food spoils. And even when it can transport it, the costs of transport make the foodstuffs unaffordable.
> 
> Population distribution also creates a political problem. One natural result of the transport problem is that the population tends to distribute itself nearer growing areas and in smaller towns so as not to tax the transport system. Yet these populations in Russia's west and south tend to be conquered peoples. So the conquered peoples tend to distribute themselves to reflect economic rationalities, while need for food to be transported to the Russian core goes against such rationalities.
> 
> Faced with a choice of accepting urban starvation or the forcing of economic destitution upon the food-producing regions (by ordering the sale of food in urban centers at prices well below market prices), Russian leaders tend to select the latter option. Joseph Stalin certainly did in his efforts to forge and support an urban, industrialized population. Force- feeding such economic hardship to conquered minorities only doubled the need for a tightly controlled security apparatus.
> 
> The Russian geography meant that Russia either would have a centralized government -- and economic system -- or it would fly apart, torn by nationalist movements, peasant uprisings and urban starvation. Urbanization, much less industrialization, would have been impossible without a strong center. Indeed, the Russian Empire or Soviet Union would have been impossible. The natural tendency of the empire and Russia itself is to disintegrate. Therefore, to remain united it had to have a centralized bureaucracy responsive to autocratic rule in the capital and a vast security apparatus that compelled the country and empire to remain united. Russia's history is one of controlling the inherently powerful centrifugal forces tearing at the country's fabric.
> 
> Russia, then, has two core geopolitical problems. The first is holding the empire together. But the creation of that empire poses the second problem, maintaining internal security. It must hold together the empire and defend it at the same time, and the achievement of one goal tends to undermine efforts to achieve the other.
> 
> Geopolitical Imperatives
> 
> To secure the Russian core of Muscovy, Russia must:
> 
> · Expand north and east to secure a redoubt in climatically hostile territory that is protected in part by the Urals. This way, even in the worst-case scenario (i.e., Moscow falls), there is still a “Russia” from which to potentially resurge.
> 
> · Expand south to the Caucasus and southeast into the steppes in order to hamper invasions of Asian origin. As circumstances allow, push as deeply into Central Asia and Siberia as possible to deepen this bulwark.
> 
> · Expand as far west as possible. Do not stop in the southwest until the Carpathians are reached. On the North European Plain do not stop ever. Deeper penetration increases security not just in terms of buffers; the North European Plain narrows the further west one travels making its defense easier.
> 
> · Manage the empire with terror. Since the vast majority of Russian territory is not actually Russian, a very firm hand is required to prevent myriad minorities from asserting regional control or aligning with hostile forces.
> 
> · Expand to warm water ports that have open-ocean access so that the empire can begin to counter the economic problems that a purely land empire suffers.
> 
> Given the geography of the Russian heartland, we can see why the Russians would attempt to expand as they did. Vulnerable to attack on the North European Plain and from the Central Asian and European steppes simultaneously, Russia could not withstand an attack from one direction -- much less two. Apart from the military problem, the ability of the state to retain control of the country under such pressure was dubious, as was the ability to feed the country under normal circumstances -- much less during war. Securing the Caucasus, Central Asia and Siberia was the first -- and easiest -- part of dealing with this geographic imbroglio.
> 
> The western expansion was not nearly so "simple." No matter how far west the Russians moved on the European plain, there was no point at which they could effectively anchor themselves. Ultimately, the last effective line of defense is the 400 mile gap (aka Poland) between the Baltic Sea and Carpathian Mountains. Beyond that the plains widen to such a degree that a conventional defense is impossible as there is simply too much open territory to defend. So the Soviet Union pressed on all the way to the Elbe.
> 
> At its height, the Soviet Union achieved all but its final imperative of securing ocean access. The USSR was anchored on the Carpathians, the Black Sea, the Caucasus and the Urals, all of which protected its southern and southwestern flanks. Siberia protected its eastern frontier with vast emptiness. Further to the south, Russia was anchored deeply in Central Asia. The Russians had defensible frontiers everywhere except the North European Plain, ergo the need to occupy Germany and Poland.
> 
> Strategy of the Russian Empire
> 
> The modern Russian empire faces three separate border regions: Asian Siberia, Central Asia and the Caucasus (now mostly independent states), and Western Europe.
> 
> First, Siberia. There is only one rail line connecting Siberia to the rest of the empire, and positioning a military force there is difficult if not impossible. In fact, risk in Russia's far east is illusory. The Trans-Siberian Railroad (TSR) runs east-west, with the Baikal Amur Mainline forming a loop. The TSR is Russia's main lifeline to Siberia and is, to some extent, vulnerable. But an attack against Siberia is difficult -- there is not much to attack but the weather, while the terrain and sheer size of the region make holding it not only difficult but of questionable relevance. Besides, an attack beyond it is impossible because of the Urals.
> 
> East of Kazakhstan, the Russian frontier is mountainous to hilly, and there are almost no north-south roads running deep into Russia; those that do exist can be easily defended, and even then they dead-end in lightly populated regions. The period without mud or snow lasts less than three months out of the year. After that time, overland resupply of an army is impossible. It is impossible for an Asian power to attack Siberia. That is the prime reason the Japanese chose to attack the United States rather than the Soviet Union in 1941. The only way to attack Russia in this region is by sea, as the Japanese did in 1905. It might then be possible to achieve a lodgment in the maritime provinces (such as Primorsky Krai or Vladivostok). But exploiting the resources of deep Siberia, given the requisite infrastructure costs, is prohibitive to the point of being virtually impossible.
> 
> We begin with Siberia in order to dispose of it as a major strategic concern. The defense of the Russian Empire involves a different set of issues.
> 
> STRATFOR Geopolitics of Russia Image 3
> Copyright


----------



## devil39

part 2



> Russian population densitiy.
> 
> Second, Central Asia. The mature Russian Empire and the Soviet Union were anchored on a series of linked mountain ranges, deserts and bodies of water in this region that gave it a superb defensive position. Beginning on the northwestern Mongolian border and moving southwest on a line through Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the empire was guarded by a north extension of the Himalayas, the Tien Shan Mountains. Swinging west along the Afghan and Iranian borders to the Caspian Sea, the empire occupied the lowlands along a mountainous border. But the lowlands, except for a small region on the frontier with Afghanistan, were harsh desert, impassable for large military forces. A section along the Afghan border was more permeable, leading to a long-term Russian unease with the threat in Afghanistan -- foreign or indigenous. The Caspian Sea protected the border with Iran, and on its western shore the Caucasus Mountains began, which the empire shared with Iran and Turkey but which were hard to pass through in either direction. The Caucasus terminated on the Black Sea, totally protecting the empire's southern border. These regions were of far greater utility to Russia than Siberia and so may have been worth taking, but for once geography actually helped Russia instead of working against it.
> 
> Finally, there is the western frontier that ran from west of Odessa north to the Baltic. This European frontier was the vulnerable point. Geographically, the southern portion of the border varied from time to time, and where the border was drawn was critical. The Carpathians form an arc from Romania through western Ukraine into Slovakia. Russia controlled the center of the arc in Ukraine. However, its frontier did not extend as far as the Carpathians in Romania, where a plain separated Russia from the mountains. This region is called Moldova or Bessarabia, and when the region belongs to Romania, it represents a threat to Russian national security. When it is in Russian hands, it allows the Russians to anchor on the Carpathians. And when it is independent, as it is today in the form of the state of Moldova, then it can serve either as a buffer or a flash point. During the alliance with the Germans in 1939-1941, the Russians seized this region as they did again after World War II. But there is always a danger of an attack out of Romania.
> 
> This is not Russia's greatest danger point. That occurs further north, between the northern edge of the Carpathians and the Baltic Sea. This gap, at its narrowest point, is just under 300 miles, running west of Warsaw from the city of Elblag in northern Poland to Cracow in the south. This is the narrowest point in the North European Plain and roughly the location of the Russian imperial border prior to World War I. Behind this point, the Russians controlled eastern Poland and the three Baltic countries.
> 
> The danger to Russia is that the north German plain expands like a triangle east of this point. As the triangle widens, Russian forces get stretched thinner and thinner. So a force attacking from the west through the plain faces an expanding geography that thins out Russian forces. If invaders concentrate their forces, the attackers can break through to Moscow. That is the traditional Russian fear: Lacking natural barriers, the farther east the Russians move the broader the front and the greater the advantage for the attacker. The Russians faced three attackers along this axis following the formation of empire -- Napoleon, Wilhelm II and Hitler. Wilhelm was focused on France so he did not drive hard into Russia, but Napoleon and Hitler did, both almost toppling Moscow in the process.
> 
> Along the North European Plain, Russia has three strategic options:
> 
> 1. Use Russia's geographical depth and climate to suck in an enemy force and then defeat it, as it did with Napoleon and Hitler. After the fact this appears the solution, except it is always a close run and the attackers devastate the countryside. It is interesting to speculate what would have happened in 1942 if Hitler had resumed his drive on the North European Plain toward Moscow, rather than shift to a southern attack toward Stalingrad.
> 
> 2. Face an attacking force with large, immobile infantry forces at the frontier and bleed them to death, as they tried to do in 1914. On the surface this appears to be an attractive choice because of Russia's greater manpower reserves than those of its European enemies. In practice, however, it is a dangerous choice because of the volatile social conditions of the empire, where the weakening of the security apparatus could cause the collapse of the regime in a soldiers' revolt as happened in 1917.
> 
> 3. Push the Russian/Soviet border as far west as possible to create yet another buffer against attack, as the Soviets did during the Cold War. This is obviously an attractive choice, since it creates strategic depth and increases economic opportunities. But it also diffuses Russian resources by extending security states into Central Europe and massively increasing defense costs, which ultimately broke the Soviet Union in 1992.
> 
> Contemporary Russia
> 
> The greatest extension of the Russian Empire occurred under the Soviets from 1945 to 1989. Paradoxically, this expansion preceded the collapse of the Soviet Union and the contraction of Russia to its current borders. When we look at the Russian Federation today, it is important to understand that it has essentially retreated to the borders the Russian Empire had in the 17th century. It holds old Muscovy plus the Tatar lands to the southeast as well as Siberia. It has lost its western buffers in Ukraine and the Baltics and its strong foothold in the Caucasus and in Central Asia.
> 
> To understand this spectacular expansion and contraction, we need to focus on Soviet strategy. The Soviet Union was a landlocked entity dominating the Eurasian heartland but without free access to the sea. Neither the Baltic nor Black seas allow Russia free oceangoing transport because they are blocked by the Skagerrak and the Turkish straits, respectively. So long as Denmark and Turkey remain in NATO, Russia's positions in St. Petersburg, Kaliningrad, Sevastopol and Novorossiysk are militarily dubious.
> 
> There were many causes of the Soviet collapse. Some were:
> 
> · Overextending forces into Central Europe, which taxed the ability of the Soviet Union to control the region while economically exploiting it. It became a net loss. This overextension created costly logistical problems on top of the cost of the military establishment. Extension of the traditional Russian administrative structure both diffused Russia's own administrative structure and turned a profitable empire into a massive economic burden.
> 
> · Creating an apparent threat to the rest of Europe that compelled the United States to deploy major forces and arm Germany. This in turn forced the Russians into a massive military buildup that undermined its economy, which was less productive than the American economy because of its inherent agricultural problem and because the cost of internal transport combined with the lack of ocean access made Soviet (and Russian) maritime trade impossible. Since maritime trade both is cheaper than land trade and allows access to global markets, the Soviet Union always operated at an extreme economic disadvantage to its Western and Asian competitors.
> 
> · Entering an arms race with much richer countries it could compete against only by diverting resources from the civilian economy -- material and intellectual. The best minds went into the military-industrial complex, causing the administrative and economic structure of Russia to crumble.
> 
> STRATFOR Geopolitics of Russia Image 4
> Copyright
> 
> Russian perspective.
> 
> In 1989 the Soviet Union lost control of Eastern Europe and in 1992 the Soviet Union itself collapsed. Russia then retreated essentially to its 17th century borders -- except that it retained control of Siberia, which is either geopolitically irrelevant or a liability. Russia has lost all of Central Asia, and its position in the Caucasus has become tenuous. Had Russia lost Chechnya, its eastern flank would have been driven out of the Caucasus completely, leaving it without a geopolitical anchor.
> 
> The gap between Kazakhstan in the east and Ukraine in the west, like the narrowest point in the North European Plain, is only 300 miles wide. It also contains Russia's industrial heartland. Russia has lost Ukraine, of course, and Moldova. But Russia's most grievous geopolitical contraction has been on the North European Plain, where it has retreated from the Elbe in Germany to a point less than 100 miles from St. Petersburg. The distance from the border of an independent Belarus to Moscow is about 250 miles.
> 
> To understand the Russian situation, it is essential to understand that Russia has in many ways returned to the strategic position of late Muscovy. Its flank to the southeast is relatively secure, since China shows no inclination for adventures into the steppes, and no other power is in a position to challenge Russia from that direction. But in the west, in Ukraine and in the Caucasus, the Russian retreat has been stunning.
> 
> We need to remember why Muscovy expanded in the first place. Having dealt with the Mongols, the Russians had two strategic interests. Their most immediate was to secure their western borders by absorbing Lithuania and anchoring Russia as far west on the North European Plain as possible. Their second strategic interest was to secure Russia's southeastern frontier against potential threats from the steppes by absorbing Central Asia as well as Ukraine. Without that, Muscovy could not withstand a thrust from either direction, let alone from both directions at once.
> 
> It can be said that no one intends to invade Russia. From the Russian point of view, history is filled with dramatic changes of intention, particularly in the West. The unthinkable occurs to Russia once or twice a century. In its current configuration, Russia cannot hope to survive whatever surprises are coming in the 21st century. Muscovy was offensive because it did not have a good defensive option. The same is true of Russia. Given the fact that a Western alliance, NATO, is speaking seriously of establishing a dominant presence in Ukraine and in the Caucasus -- and has already established a presence in the Baltics, forcing Russia far back into the widening triangle, with its southern flank potentially exposed to Ukraine as a NATO member -- the Russians must view their position as dire. As with Napoleon, Wilhelm and Hitler, the initiative is in the hands of others. For the Russians, the strategic imperative is to eliminate that initiative or, if that is impossible, anchor Russia as firmly as possible on geographical barriers, concentrating all available force on the North European Plain without overextension.
> 
> Unlike countries such as China, Iran and the United States, Russia has not achieved its strategic geopolitical imperatives. On the contrary, it has retreated from them:
> 
> · Russia does hold the northern Caucasus, but it no longer boasts a deep penetration of the mountains, including Georgia and Armenia. Without those territories Russia cannot consider this flank secure.
> 
> · Russia has lost its anchor in the mountains and deserts of Central Asia and so cannot actively block or disrupt -- or even well monitor -- any developments to its deep south that could threaten its security.
> 
> · Russia retains Siberia, but because of the climatic and geographic hostility of the region it is almost a wash in terms of security (it certainly is economically).
> 
> · Russia's loss of Ukraine and Moldova allows both the intrusion of other powers and the potential rise of a Ukrainian rival on its very doorstep. Powers behind the Carpathians are especially positioned to take advantage of this political geography.
> 
> · The Baltic states have re-established their independence, and all three are east and north of the Baltic-Carpathian line (the final defensive line on the North European Plain). Their presence in a hostile alliance is unacceptable. Neither is an independent or even neutral Belarus (also on the wrong side of that line).
> 
> Broader goals, such as having a port not blocked by straits controlled by other countries, could have been pursued by the Soviets. Today such goals are far out of Russian reach. From the Russian point of view, creating a sphere of influence that would return Russia to its relatively defensible imperial boundaries is imperative.
> 
> Obviously, forces in the peripheral countries as well as great powers outside the region will resist. For them, a weak and vulnerable Russia is preferable, since a strong and secure one develops other appetites that could see Russia pushing along vectors such as through the Skagerrak toward the North Sea, through the Turkish Straits toward the Mediterranean and through La Perouse Strait toward Japan and beyond.
> 
> Russia's essential strategic problem is this: It is geopolitically unstable. The Russian Empire and Soviet Union were never genuinely secure. One problem was the North European Plain. But another problem, very real and hard to solve, was access to the global trading system via oceans. And behind this was Russia's essential economic weakness due to its size and lack of ability to transport agricultural produce throughout the country. No matter how much national will it has, Russia's inherently insufficient infrastructure constantly weakens its internal cohesion.
> 
> Russia must dominate the Eurasian heartland. When it does, it must want more. The more it wants the more it must face its internal economic weakness and social instability, which cannot support its ambitions. Then the Russian Federation must contract. This cycle has nothing to do with Russian ideology or character. It has everything to do with geography, which in turn generates ideologies and shapes character. Russia is Russia and must face its permanent struggle.
> 
> Editor's note:
> 
> This article was originally published by STRATFOR on 15 April 2012. Republished with permission.


----------



## Kirkhill

Technoviking said:
			
		

> Correlation isn't causation necessarily, but...








See ya and raise ya  - Trypillian sites - 4800 to 3000 BC  
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	




The divide is a very long time in the making.


----------



## Kirkhill

> The period without mud or snow lasts less than three months out of the year. After that time, overland resupply of an army is impossible. It is impossible for an Asian power to attack Siberia.



Stop me if you've heard this one...... courtesy of Wikipedia ( a great place for lists)
.


> Iron Age / Classical Antiquity
> Cimmerians Issedones Wusun Parthians Parni Saka Issedones Massagetae Scythians Sarmatians Sigynnae Yuezhi Hephthalites
> Migration period
> Alans Avars Gepids Goths Huns Rugians Xiongnu
> Middle Ages
> Bashkirs Burtas Bulgarsa Jurchen Kalmuks (Mongols) Khazars Kimaks Kipchaks Magyars Mongols Nogais Petchenegs Seljuks Slavs Tartars
> Modern
> Kalmuks (Mongols) Kazakhs Kyrgyz Qaraqalpaqs



How many of those chaps have hove up at the gates of Vienna?

Russia is very vulnerable from the east and that has always kept the Slavs hiding away in the Muskeg and Forests of the Taiga and the Pripet Marshes.


----------



## Edward Campbell

This is a bit of a dilemma for the Europeans.

Some folks here will remember that we got involved in the Balkans after the original _allied_ decision was that it, the Balkans, was an _internal_ European problem and the EU, and "greater Europe," in general should use its political acumen and wealth to sort it all out ... we all remember how well that worked.

Well, this is another European problem. Let's see how well they manage this time.





French President Hollande and German Chancellor Merkel ...
... examining their _common_ EU foreign policy?


----------



## Kirkhill

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> French President Hollande and German Chancellor Merkel ...
> ... examining their _common_ EU foreign policy?



I've seen that picture before....


----------



## vonGarvin

Side note: it's Ukraine,  not the Ukraine.


----------



## devil39

Technoviking said:
			
		

> Side note: it's Ukraine,  not the Ukraine.




Side side note: 

Both have been used in the past, correctly or incorrectly.

My relatives referred to it as The Ukraine and they were from the Lvov area, before the Soviet times.  So that is how I (mostly unconsciously) refer to it.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Technoviking said:
			
		

> Correlation isn't causation necessarily, but...




Maybe the problem is starting to solve itself:

    The Euro_ish_ North West separates and tries to join Europe; and

    The South and East, which Putin really wants for its Black Sea ports, allies itself with Russia.


----------



## CougarKing

Cdn Blackshirt said:
			
		

> I'm very worried what Putin will do here....
> 
> Very scary situation.
> 
> 
> M.



You saying that Putin might conduct a "Georgia 2008-style" invasion of Ukraine? (probably after the Olympics?)

Could Eastern Ukraine be a future parallel to Georgia's former regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia?


----------



## Kirkhill

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> You saying that Putin might conduct "Georgia 2008-style" invasion of Ukraine? (probably after the Olympics?)
> 
> Could Eastern Ukraine be a future parallel to Georgia's former regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia?



Perhaps Eastern Ukraine or perhaps limited support for the Crimea.

Washington Post


----------



## tomahawk6

The Russian Army isn't in very good shape.They had a hard time with Georgia and would fail if they tried to invade Ukraine.Putin would be smart to just sit on the sidelines.


----------



## Kirkhill

I don't know where to put this.  It applies to the situation in Ukraine but in my view it speaks volumes about the speakers.



> Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, who helped negotiate the deal agreement signed by Yanukovych and the opposition, said there was “no coup in Kiev,” and that parliament is acting legally. Yanukovych said in a statement published on his presidential website that he wouldn’t resign and deemed all of the new acts illegal.
> 
> The U.S. White House urged “the prompt formation of a broad, technocratic government of national unity” in Ukraine.
> 
> “The unshakeable principle guiding events must be that the people of Ukraine determine their own future,” the White House press secretary’s office said in an e-mailed statement.
> 
> Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed his “gravest concern.” The opposition “was following the lead of ‘‘armed extremists and thugs whose actions pose a direct threat to the sovereignty and constitutional order in Ukraine,’’ Lavrov said, according to a statement.



The Russian can't understand that power doesn't reside in Leader and so doesn't recognize that the Executive serves only with the permission of the electorate.

The Whitehouse recognizes the "will of the people" but calls for a government of technocrats..... ???

The only position that I can recognize as "democratic" is that of the Poles which recognizes the supremacy of one body: Parliament.

Perhaps we should get the Poles to send missionaries to Canada to teach us the merits of the British system we have been gifted.

Stuff yer constitutions  >

PS - T6:  I hope you're right.


----------



## a_majoor

Perhaps the idea that the Ukraine will be split down the Dneiper river isn't as far fetched or long term as I had thought:

http://hotair.com/archives/2014/02/21/apocalypse-soon-ukrainian-president-reportedly-flees-kiev/



> *Apocalypse soon: Ukrainian president reportedly flees Kiev*
> POSTED AT 6:37 PM ON FEBRUARY 21, 2014 BY ALLAHPUNDIT
> 
> The comment counts on our Ukraine threads make me think some readers have tuned out this story. Now’s the moment when you’ll want to tune in.
> 
> If what The Interpreter’s hearing is true, Yanukovych has left Kiev for the city of Kharkiv. Maybe that’s because he’s lost control of the capital or maybe, as the State Department claims, he’s gone to Kharkiv to, ahem, shore up support. Either way, though, there’s no scenario where the government simply abdicates and the opposition takes over. Russia won’t relinquish the country that easily. So either things are about to get even rougher in Kiev as Putin fills the power vacuum or Yanukovych is planning a new move. What does that mean? Naval War College prof John Schindler fears the worst:
> 
> Here’s the latest from a story highlighted by The Interpreter:
> 
> Tomorrow President Viktor Yanukovych will take part in a Congress of the “Ukrainian Front” which is being organised by the Kharkiv governor, Mikhail Dobkin.
> 
> Sources at Kharkiv airport told Hvilya that the aeroplane carrying Yanukovych will land in Kharkiv within half an hour.
> 
> Furthermore, our sources in the Presidential Administration reported that all of the most combat ready of the Berkut and army forces have been transferred to Kharkiv and the southeast.
> 
> There is, in theory, a deal between Yanukovych and the opposition to reform the government, but Russia’s apparently not interested and neither are the Euromaidan protesters. They want Yanukovych to resign; meanwhile, the woman he defeated for the presidency four years ago could be out of prison within the next few days and ready to help lead the opposition. All the makings of civil war are present, in other words, from powerful national sponsors to ethnic tensions between Russian descendants living in the country and native Ukrainians. Someone just needs to give the word, whether Yanukovych or his boss. And even if Yanukovych resigns, depriving Putin of his proxy, the word may still come down. That’s what “Little Russia” means to Moscow.
> 
> How serious it it? This serious:
> 
> Russia is prepared to fight a war over the Ukrainian territory of Crimea to protect the ethnic Russian population and its military base there, a senior government official has told the FT.
> 
> “If Ukraine breaks apart, it will trigger a war,” the official said. “They will lose Crimea first [because] we will go in and protect [it], just as we did in Georgia.” In August 2008, Russian troops invaded Georgia after the Georgian military launched a surprise attack on the separatist region of South Ossetia in an effort to establish its dominance over the republic…
> 
> However, many government officials say in private that Ukraine falls inside Russia’s sphere of influence. “We will not allow Europe and the US to take Ukraine from us. The states of the former Soviet Union, we are one family,” said a foreign policy official. “They think Russia is still as weak as in the early 1990s but we are not.”
> 
> The speaker of the Crimean parliament has already said it’s possible the region would turn to Russia for “protection” if the country fractures. That’s likely to be one of the first flashpoints. What better way to celebrate a successful Olympics than with a big irredentist blowout on the peninsula?
> 
> If Russian tanks roll, how does the EU answer? While you mull that over, follow The Interpreter’s liveblog for updates.


----------



## Kirkhill

> If Russian tanks roll, how does the EU answer?



It was Stingers for the Afghans.

Javelins for the Ukrainians?


----------



## tomahawk6

The potential for civil war is quite good as well as continued Russian meddling.Hopefully the nationalists will prevail.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> I don't know where to put this.  It applies to the situation in Ukraine but in my view it speaks volumes about the speakers.
> 
> The Russian can't understand that power doesn't reside in Leader and so doesn't recognize that the Executive serves only with the permission of the electorate.
> 
> The Whitehouse recognizes the "will of the people" but calls for a government of technocrats..... ???
> 
> The only position that I can recognize as "democratic" is that of the Poles which recognizes the supremacy of one body: Parliament.
> 
> Perhaps we should get the Poles to send missionaries to Canada to teach us the merits of the British system we have been gifted.
> 
> Stuff yer constitutions  >
> 
> PS - T6:  I hope you're right.




Slightly  ff topic: but ...

It is the rise of the "technocrats" that worries me, and others (see e.g Philip Coggan, _The Last Vote, The Threats to Western Democracy_, London 2013). The most obvious, and most powerful _technocratic_ institution that _intrudes_, sometimes massively, into the _machinery of government_ is the central bank. But it's not the only one. Consider, for example, sundry human rights commissions and tribunals and so on ~ many, and "one is too many" in this case, with judicial powers. Too many democratic government are willing, even eager to _delegate_ powers ~ most of which in my opinion ought not to be delegated or even delegatable (if that's a word) ~ to (as they are called in the UK) quasi autonomous non-governmental organizations. Many (most?) people, being ill informed, _believe_ that some non-governmental agency is, inherently, more trustworthy than a team of elected politicians: what errant nonsense! What puerile rubbish! Most of these quasi autonomous bodies are staffed by failed politicians or ex political back-room boys ~ the "hacks, flacks and bagmen" ~ and _quasi_ is the operative word, many of these bodies are nothing more than thinly disguised special (often partisan political) interest groups.

By the way: I have no better answer to making monetary policy than an _independent_, apolitical central bank.

Other _independent_ bodies with considerable powers include law societies or bar associations and the like which _regulate_ the legal profession, which is fair enough, but which, also, vet and, in many cases, have considerable power over judicial appointments.


----------



## The Bread Guy

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> The potential for civil war is quite good as well as continued Russian meddling.Hopefully the nationalists will prevail.


And the Russians are already setting up interesting messaging via their Foreign Ministry Twitter account ....


> Nazis comeback? MT @Yaro_RT Not only Lenin toppled in Ukraine. Red army soldiers died combating Nazis are targets too


----------



## Edward Campbell

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from _The Economist_ is an article which guesses that Putin's Russia may, for the moment, sit on the sidelines:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/easternapproaches/2014/02/ukraines-new-dawn


> Ukraine's new dawn
> *Shots called, now what?*
> 
> Feb 22nd 2014
> 
> AT FIRST sight it seems utterly confusing. Even as the outside world was digesting the deal between the Ukrainian regime and the protesters, and the unexpectedly helpful role of Russia in the European Union’s mediation efforts, everything changed.
> 
> President Viktor Yanukovych fled the capital, Kiev, for an unknown destination. The riot police and other security guards vanished from the streets. Protesters who only hours earlier had been dodging sniper bullets found themselves guarding the presidential palace and other government buildings.
> 
> Now big questions are burning holes on policymakers’ desks.
> 
> First, what happened to Mr Yanukovych? The most likely explanation is that he simply lost his nerve. He had promised Vladimir Putin that he would deal with the protesters, as part-price of the deal to salvage the Ukrainian economy with loans and cheap gas, rather than accepting the EU’s reform-for-cash deal. He was willing to dip his hands in blood. But not deep enough. Faced with the protesters’ resistance, and the splintering of his own camp, he broke and fled.
> 
> One reason is that the deal brokered by the EU involved early presidential elections. That would be a fatal blow to his presidential authority. Whatever Ukrainians think about the EU, history, language and economic reform, the detestation of Mr Yanukovych’s authoritarian, corrupt and incompetent rule is all but universal. He was able to win the last presidential election only as a result of the spectacular failure of the country’s previous “Orange” rulers. As the likely loser in December (or earlier) he would be a lame-duck president.
> 
> Already, on the day of the talks, Mr Yanukovych had lost his parliamentary majority. His grip on the country was slipping. His Russian allies had signalled their desire for a deal, not a showdown. Even a substantial and resilient figure would have quailed in such a situation. For a man of notoriously limited mental and emotional resources, it must have seemed overwhelming.
> 
> The second question is why the security forces stood down with such remarkable speed and comprehensiveness, within 45 minutes of the deal being signed. Was that a gesture of goodwill by the regime? Was it because the power ministries scented Mr Yanukovych’s exit and feared retribution from the protesters? Or is it part of a “Plan B” from the Yanukovych camp? Their top man may be gone, but their huge financial interests remain. Their ties with Russia are deep. They may have decided that the best thing for now is to retreat in the hope that the opposition will be unable to control its radical fringe. For now, Ukrainians and the West want change more than stability. But looting and mayhem in Kiev and elsewhere might change that, making it possible for elements of the old regime (and their Russian friends) to stage a comeback.
> 
> The third question is: Who runs the country now? A BBC correspondent said on Saturday morning that “power is lying on the street in Kiev—the question is who will pick it up”. That is a bit of an exaggeration. Parliament is in charge. That is better than nothing, though Ukraine’s Rada is a motley crew: many legislators have struggled to dispel the suspicion that their political careers have been an extension of their business interests.
> 
> An interim government will be formed imminently, with some “babysitting” from the EU (a special envoy is likely to be nominated soon, and more foreign ministers and other bigwigs will be packing their bags for Kiev). America has signalled that it will support emergency IMF intervention.
> 
> But keeping Ukraine afloat will be a major task. Will the Russian bail-out package, which had been drip-feeding cash to the Yanukovych regime, now be withdrawn? What will the gas price be? The West will find that supporting a large, heavily indebted country in the throes of a chaotic political transformation is a costly business (though far less costly, it should be noted, than dealing with that country’s disintegration and civil war). Will the EU now have the guts to say clearly that when Ukraine reaches the right standards, it has a real chance and choice of membership?
> 
> And what of the oligarchs? People such as Rinat Akhmetov and Viktor Pinchuk have made clear their distaste for Mr Yanukovych’s sticky-fingered approach and for his failed crackdown, and for Russia’s asset grabs. But what do they want now? Presumably they and the old regime’s cronies will now be haggling over who gets what in the new order. And what about Yulia Timoshenko, a politician whose erratic and idiosyncratic rule is responsible for much of the mess that Ukraine is now in? In struggles over billions of dollars, clean outcomes are unlikely.
> 
> Equally uncertain is how the protesters will cope with the messy tedium of normal democratic politics. Once you have gained a taste for adrenaline-flavoured simplicity, it can become addictive. Ukraine needs a decade of hard work on reform to recover the chances squandered in the past 25 years, building the institutions, habits and attitudes needed for honest, lawful government. That will require patience and expertise, not courage and barricades.
> 
> A further question is Russia’s role. Many have blamed Russia for escalating the crisis, forcing Mr Yanukovych into a corner, and insisting on seeing Ukraine’s future as a zero-sum game, in which any integration with the EU means a defeat for Russia’s geopolitical interests.
> 
> So why did Russia back off? The swaggering bombast of recent days has vanished. It sent to the talks one of the few figures in Russian public life likely to be acceptable to the protesters and the West—the human-rights ombudsman Vladimir Lukin. He came as a witness, not as a participant to the deal reached on Friday; Russia says through diplomatic channels that though it is not a party to that agreement, it will not sabotage it. The Kremlin seems to have stood down its separatists in Crimea, a stronghold of Russian interests (and home to a large Russian naval base). Does it prize Ukrainian territorial integrity more than the chance to meddle?
> 
> One explanation is that Mr Putin, not for the first time, misread the situation. The Orange Revolution of 2004-5 was sparked by Mr Yanukovych’s election-rigging—enthusiastically supported and advised by Russia. Perhaps the Kremlin had been fooled by its own propaganda, in which the protesters were merely a unrepresentative bunch of Western-financed anarchists and fascists. Perhaps it was worried by the prospect of chaos in its largest European neighbour. In the event of collapse or upheaval, refugees would be heading north as well as west.
> 
> Perhaps too it was impressed by the West’s belated but impressive intervention. As the crisis deepened, America stepped up its engagement notably, with lengthy phone calls from Vice-President Joe Biden to Mr Yanukovch, and from President Barack Obama to Mr Putin. The three EU foreign ministers, Radek Sikorski of Poland, Frank-Walter Steinmeier of Germany and Laurent Fabius of France, were Europe's diplomatic equivalent to a carrier battle group of the US Navy. Mr Putin may have realised that the outside world was blaming him, not the West, for meddling in Ukraine. At the very least it was time for a tactical retreat.
> 
> But what will Russia do now? Most likely it will sit on the sidelines for a while. It can leave the West to try to manage the deal it has brokered. It will take years before Ukraine’s economy and public administration are strong enough to withstand Kremlin mischief. That gives plenty of time. Some would say that even the presence of the sensible and sympathetic Mr Lukin as a witness to the deal has established something of a precedent for formal Russian involvement in Ukrainian domestic affairs.
> 
> These are troubling questions and it would be naïve to say that the future looks sunny. Yet it is worth noting that the outlook this weekend is hugely brighter than at any time for months. Mr Yanukovych, one of the worst European leaders in decades, is down. Russia, at least for now, is out. We don't know who is in. But it might even be possible to argue that the high tide of the Putinist revanche was reached in Kiev last week, and that it is now in retreat.




Those are all good questions. I share _The Economist's_ view that the situation is _hopeful_.


----------



## Edward Campbell

And the _Financial Times_ is reporting that the EU is preparing to loan "billions" of _euros_ to Ukraine.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

The revolution captured on camera:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2565995/In-pictures-week-shook-Ukraine-Dramatic-photographs-chronicle-days-violent-clashes-ousting-president.html


----------



## Edward Campbell

The German Foreign Ministry is _Tweeting_ that "Chllr #Merkel spoke to Pres. #Putin today. Both leaders agree, that the territorial integrity of #Ukraine must be preserved." 

That may be the right aim, but I'm guessing that it could provoke a civil war. An early partition, on the line separating the pro Euro-Yellow from pro Russian-Blue on the map the Technoviking posted, might be the better course of action.


----------



## Cdn Blackshirt

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> You saying that Putin might conduct a "Georgia 2008-style" invasion of Ukraine? (probably after the Olympics?)
> 
> Could Eastern Ukraine be a future parallel to Georgia's former regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia?



I think it's probable Putin is formulating a plan to stage a situation in Southeastern Ukraine in which a new Russian-aligned entity attempts to declare its own autonomy and immediately requests Russian assistance.  For all intents and purposes I think if he can establish any kind of justification and backing for this new Russian-aligned state, he would not hesitate to do it.


M.


----------



## CougarKing

Despite divisions seething within the Ukrainian military, it has largely kept out of the current political crisis gripping the country.

Defense News



> *NATO Praises Ukraine Army for Staying Out of Crisis*
> Feb. 23, 2014 - 04:27PM   |   By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
> 
> (...)- EDITED
> 
> Ukraine’s army on Saturday ruled out any involvement in the country’s unfolding crisis, after the police pledged support to the people following deadly violence in anti-government protests.
> 
> “Ukraine is a close partner to NATO and NATO is a friend of the Ukrainian people,” Rasmussen said. “We look forward to continue cooperation with Ukraine based on the NATO-Ukraine Charter,” established after the end of the Cold War.
> 
> (...)
> 
> -END EXCERPT-


----------



## a_majoor

A look at some of the tactics used to defeat the riot police and allow the protestors to achieve a win (for now) Several embedded videos as well.

https://medium.com/war-is-boring/a292fc7a40c2



> *The Medieval—and Highly Effective—Tactics of the Ukrainian Protests*
> Military-style methods help Euromaidan overwhelm state forces
> Robert Beckhusen in War is Boring
> 
> Ukraine’s Euromaidan movement is in control of the capital. The autocratic and ostrich-raising Pres. Viktor Yanukovych has fled Kiev, and the Ukrainian parliament has voted him out of power.
> 
> For now, it’s a dramatic victory for the protesters, who have sought closer ties with the European Union and an end to the corruption represented by Yanukovych. It’s especially stunning considering the protesters had—on several occasions—seemed close to defeat.
> 
> But to understand why the protests succeeded in toppling Yanukovych, it’s worth taking a glance at its strategies and military-style tactics. The protesters not only built a broad and inclusive coalition, but innovated where it mattered most: on the streets.
> 
> Really, it turned medieval.
> 
> Protesters shot fireworks with makeshift launchers. In combination with throwing stones and using slingshots, they overwhelmed disoriented Berkut special forces units, who were pelted with flying objects as fireworks exploded around them.
> 
> Protesters wore military helmets and carried makeshift—or captured—shields. Wooden boards were used to protect their lower legs from shrapnel the police taped to exploding stun grenades.
> 
> Among the array of homemade weapons, some were perhaps a little too ambitious. A crude trebuchet—a type of medieval catapult which uses a counterweight to fling objects—was overrun and dismantled.
> 
> To shield themselves from the onslaught, the police special forces units known as Berkut adopted distinct tetsudo formations. This packed shield formation was used by the Roman Empire, developed to shield infantry units from arrows. The first line holds its shields forward, with each preceding line holding their shields towards the sky.
> 
> The problem with this tactic? It makes you much slower.
> 
> 
> Euromaidan kitchen on Dec. 15, 2013. Joe Luis Orihuela/Flickr photo
> Euromaidan’s long tail
> But behind the barricades, there were thousands of people working together to support the front lines. It’s an important lesson that logistics is what ultimately wins battles.
> 
> While the demonstrators at the barricades skewed younger, older Maidan activists ferried supplies and filled sandbags.
> 
> Others staffed portable kitchens set up at the main encampment at Kiev’s Independence Square. When there was ample snow on the ground, they shoveled it into bags to bolster the barricades up to 10 feet high.
> 
> These jobs were not only necessary, they also provided a sense of purpose for demonstrators, who through age, health or disability couldn’t risk the fast and brutal nature of street fighting.
> 
> The protesters helped recruit women into street-fighting groups through a female-led women’s brigade. The brigade also schooled hundreds of female volunteers in self-defense and riot tactics.
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwf9EjesvtM
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3Q9SbBxbRo
> All of this added up to enable the demonstrators to resist stronger, better trained and better equipped riot police.
> 
> In one of the more stunning scenes on Feb. 18, a 15-ton BTR-80 armored vehicle drove directly towards the Maidan barricades when it was set ablaze by dozens of Molotov cocktails.
> 
> Workshops could quickly produce large numbers of Molotovs around the clock. Activists tore stones and bricks from the pavement and passed them to the barricades.
> 
> A triage centers—and a morgue—set up in the Hotel Ukraine treated the wounded and housed the dead.
> 
> Protesters armed with clubs were able to surround and capture isolated police units, stealing their shields and equipment. When the police resorted to killing demonstrators with sniper fire, the protesters used walls of burning tires to block out the snipers’ scopes.
> 
> 
> Barricades in Kiev on Dec. 15, 2013. Jose Luis Orihuela/Flickr photo
> And they have a broad coalition
> There are important lessons here for democratic movements facing down authoritarian regimes.
> 
> For one, get people involved. Make sure participants have a purpose. Use several tactics at once, and combine them for an overwhelming advantage. Force the authorities to respond to your tactics, rather than the reverse.
> 
> The protesters were also inclusive, which helped bolster their numbers. But this remains controversial.
> 
> In addition to the two main—and moderate—opposition parties and thousands of unaffiliated activists, the protests included far-right nationalists associated with the extreme right-wing Svoboda party and the fighting units known as the Right Sector.
> 
> The result was an awkward non-aggression pact between left and right.
> 
> According to Anton Shekhovtsov, a researcher at University College London who specializes in Eastern European far right movements, one reason for the truce is necessity. The main target was Yanukovych. The other reason? Once Yanukovych is gone, the far right parties will have a harder time finding new recruits.
> 
> The protests are “among other things, a national revolution against the Kremlin’s imperialism and a nationalist uprising against Russia’s destructive influence on Ukraine,” he blogged.
> 
> That’s helping fuel the far right.
> 
> “Those who separate these two issues or crack down on the Ukrainian far right without recognizing the urgent need for national independence will never be successful in their attempts to neutralize the far right,” he added. “Moreover, they can make the situation worse.”
> 
> But if there’s anything that tipped the balance, at least for now, it’s the protesters’ willingness to fight. “I’m ready to fight for my human rights and my country, and the better life of my country,” a women’s brigade fighter told Al Jazeera. “Even to death.”
> 
> Sign up for a daily War is Boring email update here. Subscribe to WIB’s RSS feed here and follow the main page here.


----------



## Journeyman

Thucydides said:
			
		

> There are important lessons here for democratic movements facing down authoritarian regimes.


But don't forget that _non_-democratic movements are likely also taking notes.  As a personal PD session, give some thought to how you would counter these same tactics (notwithstanding the real situation unfolding in "Independence Square.")

.....and/or, how you would _improve_ upon the rioters' TT&Ps


----------



## tomahawk6

People are touring the Yanukovych estate and are shocked by what they see.

http://news.yahoo.com/documents-ukraine-leader-39-home-detail-spending-193927272.html?vp=1


----------



## vonGarvin

Those shields, etc did bugger all against 5.45 mm bullets.


----------



## Edward Campbell

_The Economist_ suggests that the "huge question is whether the revolution presages Ukraine’s disintegration." The article suggests that disintegration is likely, and that Putin's Russia is equally likely to have decided that "since Ukraine’s shift towards Europe now looks all but inevitable, grabbing Crimea quickly is the best Russia can do." My guess is that it will grab more than just the Crimean peninsula, itself ~ it is likely to grab a few of the South-East provinces, too and North-West Ukraine may be well rid of them.


----------



## Remius

Journeyman said:
			
		

> But don't forget that _non_-democratic movements are likely also taking notes.  As a personal PD session, give some thought to how you would counter these same tactics (notwithstanding the real situation unfolding in "Independence Square.")
> 
> .....and/or, how you would _improve_ upon the rioters' TT&Ps



Fight fire with fire.  Get medieval on them.  Or rather go ancient Rome.   Protesters barricaded themselves in.  They set up defensive works.  Surround them and barricade them in.  Like the Romans did to the Gauls.  Build barricades around their barricades, cut off their supply routes.   Nothing in, nothing out.  Wait them out.  It seems they were successful at holding off riot police who tried to break them up.  Wait them out until they try a sortie or to rush the government buildings. 

Not sure how effective this would be, but, fire hoses/trucks.  In winter.  Hose them down, hose the barricades and hose the protesters.  Constantly.  Heck if they had a water bomber even lol.

And war pigs  ;D


----------



## vonGarvin

"Generals gathered in their masses
Just like witches at black masses..."


----------



## 57Chevy

Technoviking said:
			
		

> "Generals gathered in their masses
> Just like witches at black masses..."


 
NATO's supreme allied commander in Europe, Gen. Philip Breedlove, discussed events in Ukraine
with Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff of Russia's armed forces, and they agreed 
to keep each other informed about developments in the country.

 The Associated Press  Vladimir Isachenkov 24 Feb

                                          Shared with provisions of The Copyright Act


----------



## a_majoor

I think the big differences between the protesters in the Ukraine and the ones *we* are familiar with like "Black Bloc" anarchists, the "Occupy" movement and various native protestors is the protesters in the Ukraine have a very clear cause that is easy to articulate, is highly motivational and inspires people to fight and even die for. The cause is so compelling that the crowds in the central square in Kiev numbered in the thousands, if not tens of thousands, and equally large and motivated crowds are active in major cities in the western Ukraine.

As for Putin "grabbing" the Eastern half of the Ukraine, in the long run it is better for everyone. The cultural divide across the Dneiper is very bitter and deep, Europe (especially Eastern Europe, which I class as a separate subunit inside Europe) gets the more productive part and cuts away the less productive part to Russia. The prosperous Western Ukraine (or whatever name they come up with. Any Eastern European/Russian history buffs out there?) will help anchor and stabilize Eastern Europe and shield the Balkans and "Latin" Europe from Russia as well.


----------



## a_majoor

The "magic moment" when the regime lost legitimacy and the protestors won:

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/371778/ukraine-changed-forever-live-tv-john-fund



> *Ukraine, Changed Forever on Live TV *
> A journalist exposes the complicity of the media in covering up the regime’s crimes.
> By John Fund
> 
> Every revolution has moments where the hinge of history seems to swing wide and everything is different and the old regime is delegitimized. In Ukraine’s revolution, the moment that’s likely to be immortalized is when protestors charged police barricades in Kiev’s Independence Square (“Maidan”) last Thursday, reportedly capturing a number of police troops, only to have dozens of protesters then gunned down by snipers. Even a face-saving compromise brokered the next day by Western diplomats couldn’t save President Viktor Yanukovych. His security forces withdrew their support, leaving him unguarded. At 2 a.m. last Saturday, helicopters ferried him and his stooges away from his Michael Jackson–style presidential palace to the Russophone eastern sector of Ukraine. He remains in hiding.
> 
> But for many Ukrainians, there was another moment when they realized the ground was shifting beneath them. It came last Friday evening, during one of the most popular talk shows on Inter, the most-watched Ukrainian network. Lidia Pankiv, a 24-year-old television journalist, was invited on by host Andriy Danylevych to discuss the need for reconciliation following the agreement signed by Yanukovych and dissidents earlier that day. While reporting on the Maidan protests, Pankiv had helped persuade the Berkut riot police not to use further violence against the activists, and she had disclosed that one of the Berkut officers was now her fiancé. But reconciliation was not what Pankiv wished to discuss. As relayed by journalist Halya Coynash, Pankiv had a different message:
> 
> "_You probably want to hear a story from me about how with my bare hands I restrained a whole Berkut unit, and how one of the Berkut officers fell in love with me and I fell in love with him. But I’m going to tell you another story. About how with my bare hands I dragged the bodies of those killed the day before yesterday. And about how two of my friends died yesterday. . . . I hate Zakharchenko, Klyuev, Lukash, Medvedchuk, Azarov. I hate Yanukovych and all those who carry out their criminal orders. I came here today only because I found out that this is a live broadcast. I want to say that I also despise Inter because for three months it deceived viewers and spread enmity among citizens of this country. And now you are calling for peace and unity. Yes, you have the right to try to clear your conscience, but I think you should run this program on your knees. I’ve brought these photos here for you, so that you see my dead friends in your dreams and understand that you also took part in that. And now, I’m sorry, I don’t have time. I’m going to Maidan. Glory to Ukraine._"
> 
> Danylevych immediately tried to return to the night’s topic of reconciliation. But he was stopped by guest Konstantin Reutsky, a human-rights activist from Luhansk. Reutsky agreed with Pankiv, saying that Inter journalists had “lied and distorted information about Maidan over the last three months.” Danylevych tried to interrupt Reutsky, who went on to say that the protestors had tried for months to avoid bloodshed. “But what happened yesterday is a point of no return,” Reutsky continued. “After that you can no longer say, ‘Sorry, we got carried away, let’s turn the page and start afresh without offense.’ What happened yesterday is impossible to forget.” Danylevych, after shouting down Reutsky’s further attempt to discuss the crimes committed by the government, changed the topic. But a chief media mouthpiece of the regime, owned by the president’s oligarch backers, had been exposed. Hours later, the president fled his palace.
> 
> After the broadcast, several Inter journalists approached Reutsky and thanked him for speaking out. Earlier that day, 16 journalists at the network had issued an open letter disagreeing with Inter’s coverage of the protests.
> 
> Reporter Halya Coynash points to the Yanukovych regime’s record of media control and censorship: “It proved unnervingly easy within a matter of months of Yanukovych’s [2010] election to remove most critical analysis, negative reports about those in power, and inconvenient information from television.” Whatever new government is formed, that sorry record must not be repeated in a new Ukraine.
> 
> As someone who reported from Eastern Europe during the fall of Communist regimes there, I recognized a recurring pattern in the collapse a quarter century later of the regime in Kiev. Regimes can stay in power in an age of mass media only if they have enough murderers willing to gun down people in the street. Snipers were willing to kill their fellow countrymen in the streets around the Maidan last Thursday, but their superiors reached a breaking point when the shots didn’t achieve the desired level of fear. “The shooting stopped when the security chiefs realized the game was over — not because they didn’t have enough Kalashnikovs, but because they proved ineffective: For one person killed, many more came out on the Maidan,” Maria Semykoz, a Ukrainian economist from Lvov, told me by e-mail.
> 
> Now that the regime is gone, Ukraine will face wrenching change. Even if Russia doesn’t attempt to stir up separatist sentiment in Ukraine’s Russophone regions, it has in the past shown it can play economic hardball. In recent years, it has limited imports from Ukraine, creating huge lines at customs posts on the border. At times during winter, Russia has cut off critical natural-gas shipments to Ukraine. The sway Russia holds is probably the main reason Yanukovych abandoned a trade treaty with the European Union last November in favor of a deal signed in December with Vladimir Putin. The financial assistance Putin promised in that deal would no doubt be withheld if the government in Kiev turned decidedly toward Europe and the West.
> 
> Ukraine’s immediate problem is that it is on the edge of economic collapse. To become a normal nation anchored in the global trading system, Ukraine will have to endure decisive and deep economic reforms, including state spending cuts, privatization, and the implementation of a tax system that is simpler and less loophole-ridden.
> 
> “The problem is, the people will likely hate the politicians brave and honest enough to implement those reforms,” Semykoz tells me. “We need now a generation of political kamikazes, who, like the protestors on the Maidan are ready to risk their future by doing the right thing today.” It’s not clear whether any such leaders are ready to step forward in Ukraine.
> 
> But, for now, there is cause to celebrate. The ghosts of Ukraine’s Soviet past have not been banished, but they are fading. It’s not a coincidence that Ukrainians are now tearing down dozens of Lenin monuments, though the statues remained standing at the time of Ukrainian independence in 1991 and even during the Orange Revolution of 2004. For the first time since independence, Ukrainians seem to be getting serious about putting individual rights and freedoms at the center of their political system. Here’s hoping that the U.S. and Europe, both of which have largely avoided engagement with Ukraine in recent months, will now step forward to help the Ukrainian people succeed in their aspirations.
> 
> — John Fund is national-affairs columnist for NRO


----------



## Edward Campbell

Assuming, as I am, that this is the official website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation then this statement is pretty bold:

http://mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/0/86DDB7AF9CD146C844257C8A003C57D2


> Statement by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding the events in Ukraine
> 
> 
> 361-24-02-2014
> 
> *Russia is extremely concerned about the development of the situation in Ukraine.*​
> There have been armed confrontations between violent youths, extreme right nationalist organisations and units of law enforcement agencies, who defended peaceful civilians and interests of the state, in the capital and several other cities recently.
> 
> The agreement on settlement of the crisis in Ukraine of the 21 February is not observed despite the fact that its signature was certified by Foreign Ministers of Germany, Poland and France, as well as the United States, the European Union and other international bodies welcomed this document.
> 
> Militants have not been unarmed, they refuse to leave the streets of cities, which are actually under their control, refuse to free administrative buildings, continue acts of violence.
> 
> We are surprised that several European politicians have already sprung to support the announcement of presidential elections in Ukraine this May, although the agreement of the 21 February envisages that these elections should take place only after the completion of the constitutional reform. It is clear that for this reform to succeed all the Ukrainian political forces and all regions of the country must become its part, but its results should be approved by a nationwide referendum. We are convinced that it is necessary to fully take into account concerns of deputies of eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, the Crimea and Sevastopol, which were expressed at the conference in Kharkov on the 22 February.
> 
> We are deeply concerned about the actions in the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada in terms of their legitimacy. Actually referring to the “revolutionary appropriateness” only, they are stamping “decisions” and “laws”, including those aimed at deprivation of humanitarian rights of Russians and other national minorities living in Ukraine.
> 
> There are calls to prohibition the Russian language almost fully, lustration, liquidation of parties and organisations, closing of undesirable mass media, removal of restrictions for propaganda of Nao-Nazi ideology.
> 
> The course is to suppress those, who do not agree to this, in different Ukrainian regions by dictatorship and even terrorist methods.
> 
> There are threats to Orthodox sanctities.
> 
> National radicals continue to scoff at monuments in different Ukrainian cities, while like-minded persons in some European countries besmear memorials to Soviet warriors.
> 
> Such development of events disrupts the Agreement of the 21 February, discredits its initiators and guarantors, and creates a threat to civil peace, stability in the community and safety of nationals.
> 
> We are forced to note that some of our western partners are not concerned about the fate of Ukraine, but rather their own unilateral geopolitical considerations. There are no principled assessments of criminal actions of extremists, including their Neo-Nazi and anti-Semitic manifestations. All the more so, such actions are intentionally or unintentionally promoted. We cannot but get a sustainable impression that the Agreement of the 21 February with silent consent of all its external sponsors is used as a cover only to promote the scenario of change of Ukrainian power by force through the creation of “facts on the ground”, without any wish to search for a Ukraine-wide consensus in the interests of national peace. We are especially worried about the attempts to involve international structures, including the UN Secretariat, into the approval of this position.
> 
> We insistently appeal to all those who are part of this crisis in Ukraine to demonstrate maximum responsibility and to prevent further degradation of the situation, to return it to the ambit of the law, and to decisively stop those extremists, who are seeking power.
> 
> 24 February 2014​


----------



## semper

Is anyone else greatly disturbed by J. Trudeau's "joke" re: the current situation in Ukraine and Russia's reaction?

While I understand some things may have been lost in translation, I worry that it reflects a trend in Western (and especially North American) society of the general citizenry displaying ostrich-like behaviour; if we are not immediately faced with a situation that impacts our daily lives, it's not worth our attention. 

Which is especially troubling coming from our politicians.


----------



## The Bread Guy

semper said:
			
		

> Is anyone else greatly disturbed by J. Trudeau's "joke" re: the current situation in Ukraine and Russia's reaction?
> 
> While I understand some things may have been lost in translation, I worry that it reflects a trend in Western (and especially North American) society of the general citizenry displaying ostrich-like behaviour; *if we are not immediately faced with a situation that impacts our daily lives, it's not worth our attention*.


This is news?



			
				E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Assuming, as I am, that this is the official website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation then this statement is pretty bold:
> 
> http://mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/0/86DDB7AF9CD146C844257C8A003C57D2



Threats to minority Russian language rights?  Check.

Threats to Orthodox churches?  Check.

Reminder of some neo-Nazis getting in on the act (bringing back a bit of historical angst)?  Check.

Lookit what they're doing to our glorious history of "liberation" during WW2?  Check.

Standby for warning order?


> Russia is believed to be deploying military ships carrying troops in the disputed autonomous Crimea region of Ukraine, as Moscow continues to refuse to recognise the interim administration which has taken control of Kiev.
> 
> Reports suggest the movement of Russia's large landing ship Nikolai Filchenkov, with at least 200 soldiers onboard, at the Russian Black Sea Fleet's base at Sevastopol.
> 
> The ship is said to be accompanied by at least four other vessels with an unknown number of Special Forces Troops onboard, sailing from the Russian port of Anapa to the Crimean/Ukrainian Sevastopol.
> 
> Oleh Tyahnybok, leader of the nationalist Ukrainian Svoboda, said he has proof of the movement in the form of a text message.
> 
> Citing security sources in Crimea, Tyahnybok said: "I can show sms. Today at 12:00 foreseen arrival of Temryuk port in the Russian Federation in the city of Sevastopol large landing ship 'Nikolai Fil'chenkov' from the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation ....


----------



## semper

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> This is news?


What's worse, it's dominating social media and mainstream media channels since reports of Trudeau's comments surfaced yesterday. When people SHOULD (imnosho) be paying attention to what's actually happening in the Ukraine, they're busy playing partisan politics instead. Sure, there's lots of information about the current situation in the Ukraine available to those who know to look for it (to the Googles!).  But prior to Trudeau's statement it appeared that many were more engrossed in the minutia of the Olympics than in the situation in Ukraine.


----------



## Edward Campbell

I'm _guessing_ that if Russia does decide on a _coup de main_ in Crimea/South East Ukraine, resulting in a _de facto_ partition, they will have done "good work" for Europe. Supreme Leader President Putin will have managed to get what Russia needs (a Black Sea naval base) and, simultaneously, he will have spared the EU the agony of dithering, yet again, about events in the peripheral regions. 

I'm also guessing that Russia wants _marches_ between it and the West: Kaliningrad Oblast, Belarus and now Eastern Ukraine ~ not a perfect armed buffer zone but pretty good for the 21st century.


----------



## CombatMacguyver

semper said:
			
		

> What's worse, it's dominating social media and mainstream media channels since reports of Trudeau's comments surfaced yesterday. When people SHOULD (imnosho) be paying attention to what's actually happening in the Ukraine, they're busy playing partisan politics instead. Sure, there's lots of information about the current situation in the Ukraine available to those who know to look for it (to the Googles!).  But prior to Trudeau's statement it appeared that many were more engrossed in the minutia of the Olympics than in the situation in Ukraine.



Maybe people simply realize there's not a whole-hell-of-a-lot Canada can do about the instability in Ukraine?


----------



## Old Sweat

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> I'm also guessing that Russia wants _marches_ between it and the West: Kaliningrad Oblast, Belarus and now Eastern Ukraine ~ not a perfect armed buffer zone but pretty good for the 21st century.



Somewhat on a tangent, in December 1991 I was in J3 Plans and was tasked to examine the provision of aid to the former Soviet Union which was going through a very bad spell then. Some of the wild ideas included deploying the Field Hospital and using 4 CMBG to transport food, POL, etc to Russia. 

This is where it gets interesting re the traditional Russian mistrust of Europe, I recalled a briefing I had attended several years ago and confirmed the info with J2. *There is no real direct, high quality road network from the Polish frontier to Moscow and ditto for fuel stockpiles/depots. *This is by design to impose delay on any invading army. A bit of math demonstrated that most of the 4 CMBG vehicles would be devoted to carrying fuel for Canadian consumption en route.

By the way, most of the proposed course of action were equally impractical. At 0700 I recommended to the DCDS that we should only offer assistance if needed and allow the Soviets to decide if they could unbend enough to ask for aid from NATO. He saw the logic of it and at the morning daily executive meeting on the 13th Floor had the satisfaction of being ahead of the CDS and DM when they raised the issue with him.


----------



## George Wallace

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> I'm _guessing_ that if Russia does decide on a _coup de main_ in Crimea/South East Ukraine, resulting in a _de facto_ partition, they will have done "good work" for Europe. Supreme Leader President Putin will have managed to get what Russia needs (a Black Sea naval base) and, simultaneously, he will have spared the EU the agony of dithering, yet again, about events in the peripheral regions.
> 
> I'm also guessing that Russia wants _marches_ between it and the West: Kaliningrad Oblast, Belarus and now Eastern Ukraine ~ not a perfect armed buffer zone but pretty good for the 21st century.



Then again, he can pump more money into Sochi and guarantee its continued prosperity after the Olympics with a large Naval presence and facilities to train his Army hockey team..... >


----------



## Kirkhill

Thucydides said:
			
		

> ....
> The cultural divide across the Dneiper is very bitter and deep, Europe (especially Eastern Europe, which I class as a separate subunit inside Europe) gets the more productive part and cuts away the less productive part to Russia. The prosperous Western Ukraine (or whatever name they come up with. Any Eastern European/Russian history buffs out there?) will help anchor and stabilize Eastern Europe and shield the Balkans and "Latin" Europe from Russia as well.



No buff me but interested amateur....

IMO the key elements of interest are two separate peoples: The Rus and the Khazars.

The Khazars are/were descendants of Attila's Huns, the Avars and the Gokturks.  They dominated the Silk Road from the Dniepr to the Altai (and apparently had a Jewish connection - as well as just about every other religion).

The Rus are usually considered by Westerners to be Vikings and by the Russians to be indigenous Slavs.  IMO - probably a bit of both.

The Timeline:

630 AD - Constantinople starts treating the Khazars as a fellow state with Anti-Arab interests.

750 AD - Vikings settling on Lake Ladoga

775 AD - Khazars marry into the Byzantine royal family and Leo the Khazar is emperor of Byzantium - causes a ruckus with Rome because he doesn't like graven images.

859 AD - Rus or Vikings at a York Factory type trading post at Novgorod

882 AD - Rus seize the Kiev trading post from the Khazars

969 AD - Rus seize the Khazar capital of Atil on the Volga delta draining into the Caspian sea - Khazars lose control of the Silk Road

1147 AD - Rus have established a trading post among the Slavs at Moscow

1223 to 1240 AD - Mongol conquest of the Rus

Mongols' Golden Horde holds the Silk Road until bypassed by Vasco da Gama and later the Dutch East India Company.

I leave it others to figure out who holds title to which lands under what names.   (I haven't touched the Bulgar claims to the lands).


----------



## Kirkhill

Old Sweat said:
			
		

> Somewhat on a tangent, in December 1991 I was in J3 Plans and was tasked to examine the provision of aid to the former Soviet Union which was going through a very bad spell then. Some of the wild ideas included deploying the Field Hospital and using 4 CMBG to transport food, POL, etc to Russia.
> 
> This is where it gets interesting re the traditional Russian mistrust of Europe, I recalled a briefing I had attended several years ago and confirmed the info with J2. *There is no real direct, high quality road network from the Polish frontier to Moscow and ditto for fuel stockpiles/depots. *This is by design to impose delay on any invading army. A bit of math demonstrated that most of the 4 CMBG vehicles would be devoted to carrying fuel for Canadian consumption en route.
> 
> By the way, most of the proposed course of action were equally impractical. At 0700 I recommended to the DCDS that we should only offer assistance if needed and allow the Soviets to decide if they could unbend enough to ask for aid from NATO. He saw the logic of it and at the morning daily executive meeting on the 13th Floor had the satisfaction of being ahead of the CDS and DM when they raised the issue with him.



Which probably explains why the Russians have spent so much money on beasts like these:






They exploit the rivers which are the traditional trade routes, run north and south parallel to the borders and disrupt the east west movement of the Mongols and their heirs and successors.

That is why I think the Russians would (unwillingly) accept a saw-off along the Dniepr that allowed them to hold the Donbass, Volgograd and the Crimea.  It would mean sacrificing the "Russians" in the South of the Ukraine but Ukraine needs Odessa as a seaport.  If Ukraine needs support on anything it is in securing Odessa.


----------



## CougarKing

The threat of Russian intervention to seize the areas sympathetic to Yanukovich looms again...perhaps we might see the Russians come in with an invasion similar to their 2008 campaign in Georgia?

While Ukraine's future remains uncertain since a new government has not been formed as of this posting, it seems they've found the hiding place of deposed President Yanukovich...

National Post



> *
> Russia threatens to intervene as Ukraine’s fugitive president holes up near Soviet-era submarine base*
> 
> A senior Russian lawmaker said Tuesday that Russia will protect its compatriots in Ukraine if their lives are in danger.
> 
> Tuesday’s statement by Leonid Slutsky, who heads a parliamentary committee in charge of relations with other ex-Soviet republics, reflected tensions in Ukraine’s Crimea, a mostly Russian-speaking Black Sea peninsula that hosts a major Russian naval base.
> 
> “If lives and health of our compatriots are in danger, we won’t stay aside,” Slutsky said at a meeting with activists in Simferopol, the regional capital of the Crimea. He refused to elaborate.
> 
> (...)- END EXCERPT


----------



## The Bread Guy

For a bit of reference, two maps attached - top map shows the breakdown of the last election (generally speaking, blue = pro-Russians, red/other = anti-Russian), and bottom maps show concentration of Russian speakers (darker/redder = mo' Russian speakers).


----------



## Kirkhill

Divisions in the Crimea



> Hunt for fugitive president in the Light Brigade's Valley of Death
> A century and a half after the charge of the Light Brigade, tensions are again building on the Crimean peninsular
> 
> 
> By Roland Oliphant, Balaclava 9:48PM GMT 24 Feb 2014
> 
> Amongst the wild apricot blossom just off the road on the rolling hills above Balaclava, a black cannon ball perches on a granite slab.
> In October, it will be 160 years since 600 British cavalry charged Russian guns across the fields below in one of the most infamous military disasters of the Franco-British campaign to capture Russia’s naval base and strong hold at Sebastopol.
> 
> Today, there is little to see, the Valley of Death is a tranquil patchwork of meadows and vineyards - some of the few that survived Mikhail Gorbachev’s ill-fated war on alcohol.
> 
> But a century and a half after the charge of the Light Brigade, tensions are again building on the Crimean peninsular that has been a bloody flashpoint throughout history.
> 
> In 1854, Balaclava was one stop on the road to the Russian stronghold in Sebastopol. Locals recall that so many British soldiers passed through the small harbour here during the 1850s that the place was called “little London”.
> 
> *Built around a tiny cove between cliffs riddled with tunnels and home to a top-secret Soviet-era submarine base, the port at Balaclava today could have been purpose built as a bolt hole for a villain on the run.*
> 
> Whether or not that is what Viktor Yanukovych’s son had in mind when he built a luxury yacht club here in the late 2000s, locals here say it played just that role last weekend.
> 
> Mr Yanukovych, the fugitive former president of Ukraine who is now wanted on accusations of mass murder, apparently took refuge in one of the green-roofed mansions looking out at the submarine tunnels bored into the cliffs opposite, some time on Sunday.
> “First, he turned up at the military airport at Belbek [10 kilometres north of Sebastopol]. They turned him away, so he drove down here. Then he was seen leaving sometime on Sunday evening,” said Roman Reitz, a local fisherman.
> 
> Locals described how a 95ft, cherry coloured yacht called the Centurion that was moored at the yacht club while Mr Yanukovych was there put out to sea and headed southeast along the coast shortly before he left by car - perhaps to rendezvous with the vessel somewhere less visible to the local coast guard.
> 
> Viktor Yanukovych has been missing since he fled Kiev on Friday night in the face of a popular uprising that has now become a revolution.
> 
> He has since been sighted in various places in his former electoral strongholds in Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine, including Kharkov, where he gave a television interview on Saturday night denouncing the Kiev protesters who overthrew him as Nazis, and later in his home town of Donetsk, where border guards say they denied a plane he boarded permission to take off.
> 
> Although several Balaclava locals gave consistent confirmation of the story, none claimed to have actually seen the ex-president with their own eyes.
> 
> “Everyone’s heard, no one has seen!” joked a yachtsman coiling rope on the yacht-club’s quayside.
> 
> *It is a struggle to find anyone with a good word to say about the deposed president in this sleepy port town*, however. “All he did was steal, steal, steal,” said Mr Reitz. “Fishermen have been working here for a thousand years. And then he comes and puts fences around half the land. You see up there? That’s a new road they built for former prime minister Mykola Azarov’s new house. It’s disgusting.”
> 
> *But the overthrow of Viktor Yanukovych by a pro-European uprising in Kiev has sent many people in this historically Russian district of Ukraine into a panic - and even talk about turning to Russia for salvation*.
> 
> *About 60 percent of Crimeans are ethnic Russia, and 25 percent Ukrainain.
> 
> And to make things even more complicated, about 13 percent are Crimean Tatars, the descendants of the Mongol armies that rampaged through Eurasia in the 13th century.
> *
> 
> The peninsular was indeed part of Russia until Nikita Krushchev transferred it to the Ukrainian SSR as a “gift” in 1954 - a move which at the time was only significant on paper.
> 
> But when the Soviet Union collapsed 37 years later, the strategic peninsular that Russians spilt so much blood to defend in both the Crimean and Second World Wars found itself in another country.
> 
> It is an indication of the deep divide between these parts of Ukraine that *Sevastopol-based police units retuning from battling protesters in Kiev received a hero’s welcome.*
> 
> *In nearby Sevastopol - the site of a Russian naval base and home to a large ethnic Russian population - fears are growing of a crack down on Russian national identity and language.*
> 
> The post-revolution parliament has already passed a bill making Ukrainian the only official language - a move that for many betrays the true nature of the protesters.
> 
> *“We are here because we don’t want to live under fascists,” said Igor Klimenchenko, a 58 year old retired navy officer among over 1000 people who rallied outside Sebastopol City Hall on Monday night.*
> 
> “We want our councillors to elect a new mayor who will appoint an executive committee to run the city independently of the illegitimate government installed in Kiev by bandits and Nazis.”
> 
> “The police defended the elected president against bandits. For months they were showered with sticks, with rocks, with molotov cocktails. They are heroes,” said Mr Klimenchenko.
> 
> “Those stories about snipers were fabricated. The footage they showed on television was three years old from Kazakhstan. It was a falsification,” he added.
> 
> The Russians defended Sevastopol tooth and claw in the Crimean war, in a heroic but ultimately doomed feat of arms that went down in national myth.
> 
> Nearly a century later, they repeated the feat in the face of a Nazi onslaught in 1941, holding out for a remarkable eight months in second siege.
> 
> Now, many feel like they are up against it again.
> 
> “We did not go through 1941 to be ruled by fascists again,” said Nina Antonova, a 43-year-old teacher. “Putin will come to save us.”



Yanukovych deserted by the Police and Military (and his own guards) in Kiev.
Turned back from airports at Kharkiv, Donetsk and Balaclava (his "friendly" turf).
Crimea split.
No friends in Balaclava.
Sevastopol can only turn out 1000 angry ex-Navy protesters.
Russia sending an LST with 200 troops to Sevastopol....

If I were the Russians in Sevastopol I would be concerned about the 200 Russians in the LST..... Putin may want to pull a page from Schickelgruber's play book for the Sudetenland and Poland.   But maybe they relish the idea of being martyrs for the Fatherland...


----------



## George Wallace

Old Sweat said:
			
		

> ...........*There is no real direct, high quality road network from the Polish frontier to Moscow and ditto for fuel stockpiles/depots. *[/u]This is by design to impose delay on any invading army. ...



Although I was not that serious in my remarks about Sochi, and moving the Black Sea Fleet to the East, Sochi is not in the Ukraine, but in Russia.  Putin built a super highway and rail link to Sochi for the Olympics.  Having his Fleet on his own soil would seem a logical thing to do.  One can only wonder how long it will be before the Ukraine does follow the other former Warsaw Pact nations to join in their aspirations to join the EU.  A decade.  Two decades.  Maybe more.  Maybe less.  Having a large chunk of your military on foreign soil is expensive, as Canada and other NATO nations have already learned.  Eventually the Black Sea Fleet will leave the Ukraine.  It is only a matter of time.


----------



## tomahawk6

Whats more likely is Ukraine gives up the Crimea in a deal with Putin.


----------



## George Wallace

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> Whats more likely is Ukraine gives up the Crimea in a deal with Putin.



That may be a logical and appeasing move by the new government of the Ukraine.  Return to Russia the lands of the Crimea that were gifted to them in 1954.  They would then rid themselves of a large Russian speaking population who want nothing of the desires to join the EU.  The Ukraine could then be free to make up their own mind to join the 'WEST' and prosper, and the Crimean peninsula would be free to live as Russians in a relative less than prosperous manner.  Russia would once again have the Black Sea Fleet on home soil.  Win/Win scenario.


----------



## Edward Campbell

George Wallace said:
			
		

> Although I was not that serious in my remarks about Sochi, and moving the Black Sea Fleet to the East, Sochi is not in the Ukraine, but in Russia.  Putin built a super highway and rail link to Sochi for the Olympics.  Having his Fleet on his own soil would seem a logical thing to do.  One can only wonder how long it will be before the Ukraine does follow the other former Warsaw Pact nations to join in their aspirations to join the EU.  A decade.  Two decades.  Maybe more.  Maybe less.  Having a large chunk of your military on foreign soil is expensive, as Canada and other NATO nations have already learned.  Eventually the Black Sea Fleet will leave the Ukraine.  It is only a matter of time.




Unless he makes the Crimea Russian.

I can imagine that the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov _might_ suggest: "Go for it, now! Take Crimea and the surrounding provinces quickly and cleanly ~ minimum violence but absolute, 100% control. Do not explain, do not apologize, especially not to the EU or the USA. Just say: "effective today these territories are an integral part of the Russian Federation. Those people who do not wish to remain in Russia may sell their homes and businesses and leave; those in Ukraine who wish to become Russian are welcome to immigrate."

A Russian _coup de main_ can work. Neither America nor Europe nor the two combined and supported by the UN is in any position to do anything about it.


----------



## tomahawk6

At this juncture it may appeal to the revolutionaries in Kiev to give up the Crimea in exchange for Putin's endorsement of Ukraine joining the EU.


----------



## vonGarvin

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Unless he makes the Crimea Russian.
> 
> I can imagine that the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov _might_ suggest: "Go for it, now! Take Crimea and the surrounding provinces quickly and cleanly ~ minimum violence but absolute, 100% control. Do not explain, do not apologize, especially not to the EU or the USA. Just say: "effective today these territories are an integral part of the Russian Federation. Those people who do not wish to remain in Russia may sell their homes and businesses and leave; those in Ukraine who wish to become Russian are welcome to immigrate."
> 
> A Russian _coup de main_ can work. Neither America nor Europe nor the two combined and supported by the UN is in any position to do anything about it.


The Russian army is designed for quick action such as these, as seen in 1956,1968, 1979 and again in 2008. Obama can draw all the imaginary red lines he wants, and the EU can make all the hissy fits it wants, but neither has the means nor the will to back up their words.
I fear that Ukraine will be split up and Europe will face a cold winter or two as Gazprom shuts off the taps.


----------



## vonGarvin

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> At this juncture it may appeal to the revolutionaries in Kiev to give up the Crimea in exchange for Putin's endorsement of Ukraine joining the EU.


I dont think Putin is concerned one iota about the revolutionaries.  He'll just take it.

And I wonder if Tymoschenko is related to Timoschenko...

Also, will Putin borrow a page from von Manstein in taking Sebastopol?


----------



## The Bread Guy

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> At this juncture it may appeal to the revolutionaries in Kiev to give up the Crimea in exchange for Putin's endorsement of Ukraine joining the EU.


I'm guessing too much Soviet colonial history to drive short-term decisions in that direction on the UKR side, especially in these heady, early "we kicked the Russians out" days.


			
				Technoviking said:
			
		

> I dont think Putin is concerned one iota about the revolutionaries.  He'll just take it.


 :nod:

Meanwhile ....


> Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird is going to Ukraine to get a first-hand look at the situation in the troubled country.
> 
> Prime Minister Stephen Harper says Baird and a delegation of Ukrainian-Canadian leaders and parliamentarians will travel to Kyiv, the capital and the epicentre of the political unrest that has rocked Ukraine for months.
> 
> Harper says Baird will offer Canada's support for efforts to restore democracy in Ukraine.
> 
> News of the trip comes as Russia's ambassador to Canada says talk about the possibility of Russian troops invading Ukraine is nonsense.
> 
> Georgiy Mamedov says it's an insult to the intelligence of Canadians even to suggest that might happen in light of recent events in Kyiv ....


CP, via CTV, 25 Feb 14


----------



## vonGarvin

FFS....he'll only see what they want him to see...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Technoviking said:
			
		

> FFS....he'll only see what they want him to see...


True, but there's a _lot_ of Ukrainian voters here to keep happy - can't be seen to be doing nothing, can we?  ;D

Also, it _must_ be important if the PM is sending him.


----------



## tomahawk6

Putin has about 100,000[Marines,Airborne,Spetznaz] reliable troops for any invasion of Ukraine.The Marshall's are probably cautioning against an invasion.


----------



## Kirkhill

Technoviking said:
			
		

> FFS....he'll only see what they want him to see...



I thought Potemkin was Russian... not Ukrainian.


----------



## 57Chevy

Shared with provisions of The Copyright Act

 A Pyrrhic victory is a victory with such a devastating cost that it is tantamount to defeat. Someone who wins a Pyrrhic victory has been victorious in some way; however, the heavy toll negates any sense of achievement or profit.



 TIME (opinion) 
 Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg and Garry Kasparov  (06 Jan 14)
---
---
---
A somewhat overlooked aspect of the contest over Ukraine is the role Berlin has played in it. Germany is the country that has often emphasized the importance of building bridges to Russia, and has come up with policies like “change through rapprochement.” But by now, Putin’s zero-sum game mentality and hard power push have provoked even the otherwise not-so-confrontational German Chancellor to take action. Germany has embraced the cause of Ukraine’s association with the E.U., it has offered to provide medical treatment for the imprisoned politician Yulia Tymoshenko, and its Foreign Minister traveled to Kiev to meet with demonstrators. While scoring a probably Pyrrhic victory, Putin has alienated an important partner. Ironically, he also achieved what no pleas from the U.S. President or fellow European leaders could do: Germany finally assumed leadership on a difficult foreign policy issue.


Moreover, Putin also made the E.U. look much better than it otherwise does these days. On first sight, the E.U. Association Agreement is a remarkably boring document, whose benefits only become evident in the long term. Yet its adoption has become synonymous with signing up for democracy, the rule of law and economic progress. We have gotten all too used to popular protest against the E.U.’s undemocratic power grabs, to politicians likening Brussels to the Moscow of the Soviet era and to discussions about different countries’ potential exits from the grand European project. Ukrainians have now reminded us of the transformative influence that the always too slow and never too effective E.U. can still have on young democracies.


Whether they are real successes or not for Putin, recent events should serve as a wake-up call for leaders on both sides of the Atlantic. The U.S. should return to long-term and extensive foreign policy planning. The primary reason for Putin’s self-aggrandizing behavior is the astonishing leadership vacuum in the world. Washington’s recent preference to let other nations, including Russia, lead on international affairs has eroded the U.S.’s authority. However, the U.S. seems to slowly realize now that to influence Putin it must speak his language, that of power. Still, it has to use the right tools. The Magnitsky Act, designed to punish Russian officials for human-rights abuses, is one of the available tools, but so far Washington seems to lack the will to use it.


As for Europe, it finally seems to recognize that it needs to be capable of taking care of its own neighborhood. The frozen conflicts in the post-Soviet space have been ignored for far too long. Why did it take a war in Georgia to realize that Tbilisi required more assistance from Europe? Why did it come as a surprise that Armenia, a country on the brink of an open confrontation with Azerbaijan, could be ruthlessly pressured into anything by Russia as long as Moscow is the one providing for its security? Will it now be spurred by another country retreating from the Eastern Partnership program, or will the E.U. face the problem of how vulnerable the Transnistria conflict makes Moldova?


Russia’s behavior toward Ukraine might hand Europe an opportunity to become more united and effective in its foreign policy. This would not be the first time Putin’s aggressive policies backfired. One of the most remarkable achievements of the E.U. recently is how it has learned to stand up against Gazprom’s monopolistic practices. A few years ago, the E.U.-Russia energy relations were all about the former’s defenselessness. Today, the news is about raids in Gazprom’s European offices, the European Commission’s plans to try the energy giant in an antitrust case and most recently, Brussels’ calls for the renegotiation of Gazprom’s bilateral agreements. As a result, it is now Gazprom that has started working toward a settlement with the E.U.


Full Article at link


----------



## tomahawk6

Russia holds a trump card with regard to the EU.They are the supplier of natural gas.They can shut it off or raise prices and its winter in Europe.


----------



## larry Strong

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> Russia holds a trump card with regard to the EU.They are the supplier of natural gas.They can shut it off or raise prices and its winter in Europe.



Well if the EU ends up freezing in the dark, they might consider re-looking their own domestic shale gas. There is more than enough to replace the Russians



Larry


----------



## The Bread Guy

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> Russia holds a trump card with regard to the EU.They are the supplier of natural gas.They can shut it off or raise prices and its winter in Europe.


And not just natural gas, either ....





And this little reminder from what things looked like in *2009*






			
				Larry Strong said:
			
		

> Well if the EU ends up freezing in the dark, they might consider re-looking their own domestic shale gas. There is more than enough to replace the Russians


That's not an overnight solution, though ....


----------



## larry Strong

No you are correct. However necessity might force the Western EU to put practicality ahead of ideology. Besides with KXL dead in the water, and the Northern Gateway in a similar position we are going to need to send our Dilbit somewhere. And though there is resistance to the reversal of line 9 at least the pipeline is already in the ground so there is no construction required - said somewhat tongue in cheek ;D



Larry


----------



## a_majoor

An article from The American Interest. The fight by the people of the Western Ukraine to prevent the imposition of an authoritarian government reflects the cultural heritage of that part of the Ukraine. It was part of the "European" sphere for a very long time (as part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire) and Poland fought for it as recently as 1922. The Ukrainian "Greens" fought both the Bolshevik "Reds" and the Imperial Russian "Whites" during the civil war, and campaigned against the USSR even as late as the 1950's (having fought both the Communists and the Nazis as partisans during the Second World War). Putim may "grab" pieces of the Ukraine that are ethically and culturally Slavic east of the Dneiper river, and I suspect the remainder of the Ukraine will be better off after the severance.

http://www.the-american-interest.com/articles/2014/02/24/the-lessons-of-kiev/

http://www.the-american-interest.com/articles/2014/02/24/the-lessons-of-kiev/



> *The Lessons of Kiev*
> ANDREW WOOD
> The seismic shift in Ukraine was achieved by its people—not by outside forces, and not by its politicians.
> 
> Published on February 24, 2014
> The seismic shift in Ukraine was achieved by its people, not outside forces, and not its politicians. There was no conspiracy, no mob violence let alone “pogroms”, and no march of eastern Ukraine against the west and center of the country in defense of Yanukovych. Of course there were fears and divisions, and the future is uncertain, but the central, momentous fact was this: the refusal of the Ukrainians to accept that their rulers have the right to compel them to obedience, and the lesson that, on the contrary, Ukraine’s rulers must govern in the interests of the people, as their servants not their masters.
> 
> It will be some considerable time before the implications of this decisive change sink in. The notion that the war Yanukovych waged on his own people was the product of a geopolitical struggle between Russia and the West, with Ukraine as the victim, had, and probably still has, deep roots. It fitted a major plank of those arguing in the United States for a strategic reset in relations between Washington and Moscow. This is an argument that took—sometimes explicitly—the Russian claim to a particular national interest in Ukraine as having a higher value than the hopes and wishes of the people of Ukraine themselves. It fitted with those in EU countries who continued to believe that disputing Russian ambitions to restore its hegemony in the former Soviet space, and Ukraine above all, would scupper the superior objective of gradually persuading the Kremlin that Russia’s true interests lay in realizing shared European destiny and values. The strongly articulated Russian assertions that Ukraine was the object of Western subversion, a geopolitical prize to be seized by fair means or foul at the expense of a disinterested Russia and at the risk of chaos in Europe, played into a Cold War set of attitudes.
> 
> It was telling that, while there was anger within the European Union at the way that Russian pressure and inducements achieved Yanukovych’s volte-face on the Association Agreement this past November, the general assumption was that Ukraine’s European option had been shut down. That assumption failed to account for two factors within Ukraine itself: first, that Ukrainians themselves understood that Yanukovych’s November choice implied that he was moving towards the Russian model of centralized authoritarian governance and accepting the dominance of Moscow; and second, Yanukovych’s brutal incompetence in an increasingly desperate attempt to shore up his rule. From the time snipers began picking off victims on the Maidan it was obvious that this was not so much about Ukraine’s relationship with the EU as its future chances of becoming Poland rather than Belarus.
> 
> Neither the United States nor the European Union was driving events in Ukraine. The Americans were ahead of the Europeans in working for sanctions. One can sympathize with the all too human outburst of Assistant Secretary Nuland about what she saw as EU inaction. But Washington did not give much of a lead either. It took time for the West as a whole to comprehend the direction and gravity of what was happening in Ukraine, and to realize that Russia, too, was being carried forward by events. None of that altered, however, the fact that those forces in Ukraine, West, Central or East, that wished to avoid an eventual Yanukovych dictatorship saw a viable relationship with the European Union as a necessary guarantee of their future, and a closer relationship with Russia as a threat to it. There were hesitations, divisions, and reservations within the European Union, as one would expect of a group of 28 countries facing a possible common commitment to a Ukraine with an uncertain future. The last minute deal negotiated with Yanukovych by the Polish, German, and French Foreign Ministers was an admirable product of diplomatic reasoning, and one that played its part in Yanukovych’s surrender to the inevitable. But that deal was already overtaken by events when it was signed, and Yanukovych knew it as he prepared to flee Kiev.
> 
> But if the West fumbled the pass, the Kremlin was the victim of its own illusions. The Moscow establishment consistently misread Ukrainian reality, just as it did in 2004. Misled by understandable if patronizing assumptions as to the power of cultural and historical associations between the Russian and Ukrainian peoples, and the economic benefits as Moscow saw them of closer integration between the two countries, the Russian authorities put their faith in compulsion as the means to force through a permanent alliance and lasting friendship between Russia and Ukraine (with Belarus and Kazakhstan as partners in it). The further and highly questionable assumption that Ukraine’s future would be decided either by the West or by Russia fed into the deep-seated belief that it was in Russia’s “national interest” to ensure that Moscow won, a belief encouraged by the fear that a different system of governance in Ukraine, and a closer adherence by that country to wider European norms, would threaten Russia’s present ruling paradigm.
> 
> Putin and his Russia now face an agonizing choice. It would be easier to retreat further into aggrieved isolation and to blame the West for Moscow’s troubles than to acknowledge to themselves, however tacitly, that strategic as well as tactical mistakes should be addressed, and their consequences corrected. It would be wrong for the rest of us either to despair of the possibility of reflection, even though such a rethink would have to cover a far wider field than the issue of why Moscow failed to impose its will on Kiev, or to expect that it will soon take place. “The weak get beaten” is a fundamental article of Putin’s faith. He and his close associates may find it impossible to see the destruction now of the hopes they thought were assured four months ago in any other way. There is on the other hand at present no clear way ahead of them of reviving the possibility of Ukraine returning to the ex-Soviet fold. Russia’s best bet is to swallow as much pride as it can, and to wait upon events. Ukraine may want more independence from Russia than Moscow might wish, but both countries still need each other.
> 
> The West, the European Union not least, will also need to absorb the lessons of the past several months. No one, I take it, supposes that Ukraine will soon turn into a settled country with a defined future. That would be optimistic even if there were no outside forces and internal factions to cloud the possibility. It will still be the duty of the European Union, the United States, and even Russia, if it can bring itself to do so constructively, to support Ukraine in its recovery from the violence and misrule that it has endured. The West has been brought by events to recognize that duty. The outside world ought to be encouraged by the way that Ukraine has begun to recover from its trauma. The outside world should, lastly, fully accept that Ukraine has earned the right to defend and determine its own future. It is a state, not a piece of meat for jackals to dispute.
> 
> Andrew Wood is associate fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, and served in the British Embassy in Moscow from 1964–66, 1979–82 and 1995–2000, the last as Ambassador.


----------



## vonGarvin

Everyone, please stop using the definite article when referring to Ukraine.  Not only is it irritating, it's wrong.


> Граудина, Л. К.; Ицкович, В. А.; Катлинская, Л. П (2001). Грамматическая правильность русской речи [Grammatically Correct Russian Speech] (in Russian). Москва. p. 69. "В 1993 году по требованию Правительства Украины нормативными следовало признать варианты в Украину (и соответственно из Украины). Тем самым, по мнению Правительства Украины, разрывалась не устраивающая его этимологическая связь конструкций на Украину и на окраину. Украина как бы получала лингвистическое подтверждение своего статуса суверенного государства, поскольку названия государств, а не регионов оформляются в русской традиции с помощью предлогов в (во) и из.



Anyway, when referring to "the Ukraine", the implication js that it is part of a larger region, such as in this case the USSR.  In Canada, we may refer to regions such as "the Mirimachi", as an example. Others include "the Prairies" or "the Sudeten land" or, more appropriately,  the Crimea,  since it is part of a larger region, in this case, Ukraine. 


/rant


----------



## The Bread Guy

The latest from Russia's ambassador to Canada:


> .... Georgiy Mamedov said categorically that a Russian invasion was not in the cards, despite recent events in Kyiv that have pushed Ukraine away from renewed ties with Moscow.
> 
> *“It’s very simple. We are no NATO, it’s not Libya, you won’t see any Russian troops in Ukraine,”* he said.
> 
> “Whoever discusses rumours about Russian military intervention in Ukraine is committing an insult to the intellect of the Canadian public, full stop.” ....


Does that mean:
1)  If troops go, we won't see them?
2)  If troops go, we get the "hey, _this_ isn't Ukraine - lookit all these Russian speakers giving the lads flowers as we roll in - so it might as _well_ be Russia, right?" messaging?
>


----------



## Old Sweat

The old Soviet Union had a reputation for toughness, see Hungary 1955 and Czechoslovakia 1968, but this was not uniform as it also allowed Poland to fester on its own in the early 80s. Recent past history indicates that Putin's Russia is not loath to act to trouble on its frontiers. I would not give too much credence to the Ambassador's statement as he is acting as a conduit and may or may not have real inside knowledge, or he may just be making reassuring noises.

A possible scenario is if the old government can make a convincing argument that it is the victim of a coup. It does not have to be telling all the truth or even very much of it. All it needs to do is to convince enough useful idiots that it has a case, and then perhaps the Russians can accept an invitation to deliver their Ukrainian brothers and sisters from oppression. 

I am not sure what the response from Washington would be. The Obama administration has demonstrated it talks loudly and carries a little stick. The EU can be relied upon for noise, but not much else. My conclusion is that Russia is in the driver's seat and has more or less a free hand.

Perhaps the Baird delegation that is travelling to the Ukraine today is intended as a deterrent, or perhaps internal Canadian political imperatives has trumped common sense once again. If the government thinks the presence of a Canadian official delegation could sway Putin away from taking action later or sooner, they are hopelessly optimistic.


----------



## Journeyman

Old Sweat said:
			
		

> If the government thinks the presence of a Canadian official delegation could sway Putin away from taking action later or sooner, they are hopelessly optimistic.


It's merely the diplomatic equivalent of an NDHQ Staff Annoyance Assistance Visit.  They'll show up without knowing the actual situation on the ground, have not the slightest intention of getting their hands dirty but not hesitating to tell everyone how they'd be doing things better, take pictures and go souvenir shopping at the local market for bragging rights back home, then disappear having contributed nothing.


Baird _et al_ are simply adding to the storyline that "while the Liberals shamelessly _~tsk tsk~_ make hockey jokes at the expense of these poor people, we're here doing......._something_!"  [ie - Ukrainian voters in Western Canada take note]


----------



## tomahawk6

Putin has ordered military drills across western Russia.Odd time for a readiness drill,but then again maybe not. :nod:


----------



## Oldgateboatdriver

It's to keep all those troops in Sochi from getting bored now that the Olympics are over  .


----------



## CougarKing

Putin preparing to move troops to annex Eastern Ukraine and Crimea?

Yahoo News



> *Putin orders massive military exercises amid tensions over Ukraine*
> 
> The Canadian Press
> By The Associated Press
> 
> MOSCOW - President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday ordered massive exercises involving most military units in western Russia amid tensions in Ukraine.
> 
> Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said in a televised statement made at a meeting of top military brass in Moscow that the exercise is intended to "checks the troops' readiness for action in crisis situations that threaten the nation's military security."
> 
> In remarks carried by Russian news agencies, Shoigu said that the manoeuvrs involve some *150,000 troops, 880 tanks, 90 aircraft and 80 navy ships*.
> 
> *He said the exercise is unrelated to the developments in Ukraine, where tensions remain high following the toppling of Russia-backed President Viktor Yanukovych.*
> 
> But Shoigu added that the exercise will be held near Russian borders, including the border with Ukraine. He also said, according to Russian news reports, that his ministry will take steps to strengthen security of the facilities of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula, without elaborating.
> 
> (...)- EDITED


----------



## vonGarvin

880 ish tanks is a combined arms army of four motor rifle divisions and a tank division...


That's a huge force, especially in this post cold war era...


----------



## The Bread Guy

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> Putin has ordered military drills across western Russia.Odd time for a readiness drill,but then again maybe not. :nod:


Hey, the narrative has been set ....


			
				E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Assuming, as I am, that this is the official website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation then this statement is pretty bold:
> 
> http://mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/0/86DDB7AF9CD146C844257C8A003C57D2





			
				milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Threats to minority Russian language rights?  Check.
> 
> Threats to Orthodox churches?  Check.
> 
> Reminder of some neo-Nazis getting in on the act (bringing back a bit of historical angst)?  Check.
> 
> Lookit what they're doing to our glorious history of "liberation" during WW2?  Check.


----------



## Kirkhill

> KYIV — A former presidential aide despised by protesters has been shot and wounded, his spokesman said Tuesday, raising fears of retaliation as Ukraine charts a new tumultuous political course.
> 
> Andriy Klyuyev, who was President Viktor Yanukovych’s chief of staff until Sunday, was wounded by gunfire on Monday and hospitalized, his spokesman, Artem Petrenko, told The Associated Press.



You can add this to the narrative from yesterday's National Post

By the way I detest the hyped headline.  Not useful at any time but especially not now.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> By the way I detest the hyped headline.  Not useful at any time but especially not now.


Like they say, if it bleeds, it leads ....


----------



## Kirkhill

Technoviking said:
			
		

> 880 ish tanks is a combined arms army of four motor rifle divisions and a tank division...
> 
> 
> That's a huge force, especially in this post cold war era...



How many runners?

How many after running 100 km and the Vodka has been drained from the Hydraulics?  (Pace Viktor Suvorov - The Liberators).

How many after the RPGs get done with them?

How many can you concentrate at a given place in a useful number?


----------



## CougarKing

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> How many after the RPGs get done with them?



In the case of a Russian annexation/incursion...

Wouldn't the Russian armoured columns not face much resistance in Southeastern Ukraine/Crimea though? At least until affer the Dnepr River?

Wouldn't the ethnic Russians living in those areas welcome and assist their compatriots?

Furthermore, as said in this earlier article, the Ukrainian Army's officer corps overwhelmingly support deposed President Yanukovich (who supports Russia), while the enlisted personnel seem to mostly support western Ukraine/the EU.

So far most of the Ukrainian military has stayed out of the political crisis gripping the country, but that may change..


----------



## MilEME09

Most of the Ukrainian army is in the west as well, If i recall correctly only a handful of units would actually be close enough to slow down the Russian Army until the bulk including Ukraine's armoured units arrive.


----------



## vonGarvin

I'd wager that most are runners.  And with reactive armour, RPG warheads would be virtually useless.

And backing all this up one can assume battalions of SP Artillery. 18 tubes per regiment.  That's 360 2S1s (122mm). Plus the 2S3s. And an unknown number of 9A52-2 Smerch-M...and on it goes.


----------



## 57Chevy

Shared with provisions of The Copyright Act

Russian military move on Ukraine would echo HITLER annexing the Sudetenland, expert warns

 Express  Owen Bennett  25Feb

A DECISION to send Russian tanks into Ukraine would have echoes of the catastrophic invasion of Czechoslovakia by Adolf Hitler 76 years ago, according to a leading international security expert.

Dr Jonathan Eyal, International Director of the security think-tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) said a such Russian move would be President Vladimir Putin’s “Sudetenland option”.

He was referring to the annexation of the German-speaking part of Czechoslovakia in 1938 when Hitler claimed he was merely trying to protect the ethnic German population in the area, a move that led eventually to the Second World War.

It is now feared President Putin could seek to take over the eastern part of Ukraine to protect the ethnic-Russians in the region, following the ousting of pro-Moscow president Viktor Yanukovych last weekend.

Dr Eyal warned that state-owned Russian media outlets are already focusing on the suffering of ethnic-Russians in the region, just as Nazi Germany did with its propaganda in 1938.

The expert warned any military move by Russia could usher in a new Cold War with the West.

He said: "Putin understands Ukraine will never be part of Russia again, but he wants Ukraine to look on Russia as a big brother.

"The Sudetenland option is not his first priority, but it is his fail safe priority.

"He has no chance of engaging with the west of Ukraine, and at the end of the day the Sudetenland option remains in the back of most Russian leaders minds.

"The West's failure has been trying to persuade him that the Sudetenland option is a mistake for Russia, but he is not getting the message."

Dr Eyal added if the the annex did happen, it could set diplomatic relations between Russia and the West back to the days of the Cold War.

Since Mr Yanukovych was deposed last weekend, President Putin has been tight-lipped on events in Ukraine.

President Putin was a strong supporter of the former President, backing him for power twice - first in 2004 and again in 2010.

Civil unrest began to mount in Ukraine last November, when Mr Yanukovych abandoned an agreement with the European Union in favour of closer ties with Russia.

Within weeks, the protest expanded to include outrage about corruption and human rights abuses and calls for Mr Yanukovych's resignation. 

Dr Eyal believes the silence emanating from Moscow is merely "the calm before the storm" and President Putin will not take being embarrassed so publicly lightly.

He said: "Putin's main strength at the moment is his ambiguity, as it keeps us all guessing.

"Ambiguity is the strongest card Moscow has - but he will encourage local Russian-speaking activists in the east of Ukraine to rise up."

Hitler's claims for the Sudetenland was one of the direct precursors to the Second World War.

The territory was officially annexed to Germany as part of the infamous Munich Agreement in September 1938 - the height of British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain's policy of appeasement.

The agreement was signed by Chamberlain, Hitler, Italian leader Benito Mussolini and French Prime Minister Édouard Daladier.

No Czechoslovakian representative was presents, and the Czechs were told to either accept the deal or face the Nazi's alone.

In exchange for the land, Hitler signed a peace deal between Germany and the UK, which Chamberlain famously described as guaranteeing "peace for our time" upon his return to London.

Other ways Russia could exert pressure on the new Ukrainian government include limiting the country's energy supply and demanding repayment of loans.

Dr Eyal believes the UK and Nato will only become involved in a military capacity to strengthen the Ukrainian border with Poland and Romania in order stop any disquiet spreading, and would not send any troops into Ukraine itself.

In a vist to Ukraine's Crimea region today, a senior Russian lawmaker vowed Moscow will protect its compatriots there if their lives are in danger.  

Leonid Slutsky, who heads a committee in charge of relations with other ex-Soviet republics in the Russian parliament, reflected tensions in the Crimea, a mostly Russian-speaking Black Sea peninsula that hosts a major Russian naval base.  

Mr Slutsky, speaking at a meeting with local activists, didn't spell out what action Russia might take.  

His statement followed comments by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who said that Moscow has no intention of interfering in Ukraine's domestic affairs and warned the West against trying to turn the situation there to its advantage. 

Dr Eyal believes the UK and Nato will only become involved in a military capacity to strengthen the Ukrainian border with Poland and Romania, in order stop any disquiet spreading.

photos at link.


----------



## pbi

I find the echoes from pre-breakup FRY pretty frightening. This isn't going anywhere good.


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukraine, Crimea, Donbass, Chechenya, South Ossetia, Georgia, Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan, Kurds, Syria, Iraq, Iran.

Greece and Turkey not looking particularly strong.

What does it say when the strongest regional countries are Romania and Bulgaria?


----------



## wannabe SF member

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> Ukraine, Crimea, Donbass, Chechenya, South Ossetia, Georgia, Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan, Kurds, Syria, Iraq, Iran.
> 
> Greece and Turkey not looking particularly strong.
> 
> What does it say when the strongest regional countries are Romania and Bulgaria?



Surely you speak of stability when you use the term strength. Am I wrong?


----------



## Kirkhill

You're right Inky.

Stability is a better word.


----------



## The Bread Guy

More on the "you won't _see_ Russian troops" front ....


> Ukraine’s sovereignty over the southern region of Crimea appeared to be under threat Wednesday, as Russian-backed fighters moved dozens of kilometres outside their base in this Black Sea port, establishing a checkpoint on the main road connecting Sevastopol to the regional capital.
> 
> The Globe and Mail saw least a dozen men wearing fatigues – supported by an armoured personnel carrier – standing under a Russian flag at a checkpoint erected roughly halfway along the 80-kilometre road from Sevastopol to Simferopol, putting it close to the administrative border that separates the Sevastopol municipality from the rest of Crimea and Ukraine.
> 
> The men, some wearing balaclavas, used flashlights to look inside each vehicle approaching Sevastopol. They reportedly later told journalists they were local “volunteers.”
> 
> Earlier in the day, at least two armoured personnel carriers were seen maneuvering in the centre of this port city, which has historic ties to Russia and hosts Russia’s Black Sea Fleet under an agreement between Moscow and Kiev. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said the Kremlin was “carefully watching what is happening in Crimea” and would take “measures to guarantee the safety of facilities, infrastructure and arsenals of the Black Sea Fleet.” ....


----------



## tomahawk6

The combat readiness of Russian armored units is thought to be iffy.Ukraine has the advantage of interior lines if it comes to that.But I actually think all of this talk of invasion sets the table for a deal to be worked out.The bottom line is that the Crimea will become part of Russia.


----------



## CougarKing

Don't most of the warships of the Ukrainian Navy actually share port at Sevastopol with the Russian Black Sea Fleet?

Wouldn't it be awkward if Russia moved into Eastern Ukraine to try to link up with their forces in Crimea, leading to the Ukrainians and Russian warships in port to start trading shots?

Would it be a foregone conclusion that the Russian Black Sea Fleet comes out victorious mainly because of superior firepower?

*another uncertain factor is how many ships will remain loyal to the new regime in Kiev, or loyal to the deposed President Yanukovich, who is pro-Russia and reportedly hiding in an abandoned sub base in the Crimea.


----------



## Kirkhill

Ready for another Wild Card?



> In the regional capital of Simferopol, 10,000 *Muslim Crimean Tatar*s rallied in support of Ukraine's interim leaders, waving Ukrainian flags and *chanting "Ukraine is not Russia" and "Allahu Akbar*," while a smaller pro-Russian rally nearby called for stronger ties with Russia and waved Russian flags.
> Protesters shouted and punched each other in ongoing scuffles outside the regional assembly, as police and leaders from both sides struggled to keep the two groups apart.



Outstanding: Slavs of Muscovy facing a coalition of Varangians and Muslim Mongols.


----------



## CougarKing

Speaking of the Tartars mentioned above:



> Yahoo News
> 
> MOSCOW - *A local leader of the Tatar community in Ukraine's Crimea region says armed men have seized two government buildings in the regional capital, Simferopol.*
> 
> Refat Chubarov wrote on his Facebook page early Thursday that the buildings of the local government and legislature were seized overnight by uniformed men.
> 
> Phone calls to the Crimean legislature are ringing unanswered, and its website is down.
> 
> But the Interfax news agency reports that the legislature's press office has confirmed the building has been seized.
> 
> (Edited)




While Moscow tries to ensure the security of its Black Sea Fleet:


Defense News



> *Minister: Russian Navy Taking 'Security Measures' in Crimea*
> 
> 
> Feb. 26, 2014 - 04:27PM   |
> By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
> MOSCOW — Russia is taking measures to ensure the security of its Black Sea naval fleet based on Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, Russia’s defense minister said Wednesday as President Vladimir Putin ordered snap checks of the armed forces.
> 
> “We are watching carefully what is happening in the Crimea, what is happening around the Black Sea fleet. We are taking measures to ensure security of sites, infrastructure and arsenals of the Black Sea fleet,” minister Sergei Shoigu said, Russian news agencies reported.
> 
> (...)-EDITED


----------



## Robert0288

> *UPDATE 3-Armed men seize government HQ in Ukraine's Crimea, raise Russian flag*
> 27 Feb 2014 03:01 EST
> Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/27/ukraine-crisis-crimea-idUSL6N0LW0AY20140227
> 
> * Armed men seize regional government, parliament buildings
> 
> * Police outside, Russian flag flying
> 
> * Door barricaded with chairs, tables
> 
> * Russia says it will defend compatriots' right
> 
> By Alessandra Prentice
> 
> SIMFEROPOL, Ukraine, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Armed men seized the regional government headquarters and parliament on Ukraine's Crimea peninsula on Thursday and raised the Russian flag in a challenge to the country's new rulers.
> 
> It was not immediately known who was occupying the buildings in the regional capital Simferopol and they issued no demands, but witnesses said they spoke Russian and appeared to be ethnic Russian separatists.
> 
> Interfax news agency quoted a witness as saying there were about 60 people inside and they had many weapons. It said no one had been hurt when the buildings were seized in the early hours by Russian speakers in uniforms without designating marks.
> 
> "We were building barricades in the night to protect parliament. Then this young Russian guy came up with a pistol ... we all lay down, some more ran up, there was some shooting and around 50 went in through the window," Leonid Khazanov, an ethnic Russian, told Reuters.
> 
> "They're still there ... Then the police came, they seemed scared. I asked them (the armed men) what they wanted and they said 'To make our own decisions, not to have Kiev telling us what to do'," said Khazanov.
> 
> Crimea, the only Ukrainian region with an ethnic Russian majority, is the last big bastion of opposition to the new political leadership in Kiev following the ouster of President Viktor Yanukovich on Saturday.
> 
> Part of Russia's Black Sea fleet is based in Crimea, in the port of Sevastopol
> 
> Ukraine's new leaders have been voicing alarm over signs of separatism there. The seizure of the building was confirmed by acting interior minister Arsen Avakov, who said the attackers had automatic weapons and machine guns.
> 
> "Provocateurs are on the march. It is the time for cool heads," he said on Facebook.
> 
> About 100 police were gathered in front of the parliament building. The streets around the parliament were mostly empty apart from people going to work.
> 
> The regional prime minister said he had spoken to the people inside the building by telephone but they had not made any demands or said why they were inside. They had promised to call him back but had not done so, he said.
> 
> RUSSIAN WARNINGS
> 
> Russian President Vladimir Putin has ignored calls by some ethnic Russians in Crimea to reclaim the territory handed to then Soviet Ukraine by Soviet Communist leader Nikita Khrushchev in 1954.
> 
> The United States says any Russian military action would be a grave mistake.
> 
> But Russia's foreign ministry said in a statement that Moscow would defend the rights of its compatriots and react without compromise to any violation of those rights.
> 
> It expressed concern about "large-scale human rights violations", attacks and vandalism in the former Soviet republic.
> 
> Ethnic Tatars who support Ukraine's new leaders and pro-Russia separatists had confronted each other outside the regional parliament on Wednesday.
> 
> Yanukovich was toppled after three months of unrest led by protesters in Kiev. He is now on the run being sought by the new authorities for murder in connection with the deaths of around 100 people during the conflict.
> 
> Crimea is the only region of Ukraine where ethnic Russians dominate in numbers, although many ethnic Ukrainians in other eastern areas speak Russian as their first language.
> 
> The Tatars, a Turkic ethnic group, were victimised by Soviet dictator Josef Stalin in World War Two and deported en masse to Soviet Central Asia in 1944 on suspicion of collaborating with Nazi Germany.
> 
> Tens of thousands of them returned to their homeland after Ukraine gained independence with the collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991.


----------



## Robert0288

> *Ukraine's acting president calls on Russian forces in Crimea not to leave naval base*27 Feb 2014
> Highlight:
> _SIMFEROPOL, Ukraine — Ukraine's acting president has warned Russian forces not to leave their naval base in the Crimea region after gunmen seized government buildings in the regional capital.
> President Oleksandr Turchynov said: "Any movements of troops, especially with troops outside that territory will be considered military aggression."……_
> 
> Source: http://www.startribune.com/world/247435411.html


----------



## Edward Campbell

Yes, indeed, the _strategic_ view (big hand, small map) is fairly simple: South & East to Russia, North & West to Europe. The local (tactical) view is, as always, more detailed, more nuanced and much more complex.

I'm _guessing_ the Presidents Putin and Obama and Chancellor Merkel are all _strategic_ folks ... only too happy to sweep the details aside and leave the cleanup to others.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Found him!


> Viktor Yanukovych has made an address to the people of Ukraine to declare that he still considers himself the legitimately elected President of Ukraine. "I, Viktor Fyodorovych Yanukovych, am addressing the people of Ukraine. I still believe myself to be the legitimate head of the Ukrainian state elected in a free vote by Ukrainian citizens," he said in the statement.
> 
> (....)
> 
> "I have to ask the Russian authorities to provide personal security from extremists for me," the statement continues.
> 
> (....)
> 
> The Russian authorities have met Viktor Yanukovych's request on ensuring his personal security.
> 
> "Considering that President Yanukovych has appealed to the Russian authorities to ensure his personal security, I am informing you that this request has been granted on the territory of the Russian Federation," a Russian government source said.
> 
> Earlier it was reported that ousted Ukrainian President Victor YAnukovych is in Russia, in Moscow region ....


----------



## pbi

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> ...The bottom line is that the Crimea will become part of Russia...



Agree completely. They are busily creating the "Danzig" or "Sudetenland" type situations that they need to justify what they are doing. Although, I'm not clear to whom they are going to "justify" anything. The average Ivan/Ivanka on the street probably doesn't like foreigners anyway, bitterly mistrusts Muslims and Asiatics, and instinctively worships the "strong Russia" that Putin and his gang have retailed since they took power. I don't think the Russian public wants much justification. 
And the rest of the world won't believe it anyway.


----------



## Old Sweat

The following story from the electronic edition of The Globe and Mail is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act.

Canada’s foreign minister lands in Ukraine as tensions mount

KATHRYN BLAZE CARLSON
Ottawa — The Globe and Mail
Published Thursday, Feb. 27 2014, 12:30 PM EST
Last updated Thursday, Feb. 27 2014, 12:36 PM EST

Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird has landed in Kiev, just as tensions in Ukraine are reaching fever pitch with Russian troops on alert at the border and NATO urging Moscow not to escalate the already volatile situation.

Mr. Baird is in the Ukrainian capital to lead a Canadian delegation that is expected to meet Friday with members of the new government, opposition parties, civil society and religious groups. Despite the apparent threat to Ukraine’s sovereignty over the southern region of Crimea and with international anxiety brewing over Russia’s next move, the scheduled meetings have not been cancelled or postponed.

As it stands, the one-day program will continue as planned and no changes have been made as a result of the events evolving in Ukraine, a government source said. Mr. Baird is expected to launch the program with a visit to Kiev’s Independence Square, where he will pay respect to those who lost their lives in the uprising that ousted President Viktor Yanukovych.

Russian media have reported that Mr. Yanukovych, a Moscow ally who last fall accepted a $15-billion Russian bailout in favour of signing a popular association agreement with the European Union, had been seen in a Moscow hotel and is now staying in a Kremlin sanatorium just outside the city.

“Canada fully supports the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine,” said Rick Roth, a spokesman for Mr. Baird who is travelling with the minister. “Any outside involvement in Ukraine’s democratic aspirations would be a dangerous development. All countries should be working together in the pursuit of unity, freedom and democracy.”

When asked about safety concerns regarding the delegation, Mr. Roth said he could not comment on security matters.

The tumult in Ukraine has set up a diplomatic tug-of-war between the West, which has expressed support for the demonstrators, and Moscow, which has questioned the legitimacy of the interim government, saying it will find it difficult to work with “Kalashnikov-toting people in black masks.” But now that Russia has assumed control of the main access to a Ukrainian port city that is home to a major naval base, and now that more than 150,000 Russian troops and hundreds of tanks and helicopter gunships are on alert for war games in the areas bordering the former Soviet state, western leaders fear more than a war of words.

Russia says the military exercise is meant to check combat readiness. Still, U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel warned Russia to stay out the crisis, and the secretary-general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, of which Canada is a member, told reporters the events in Crimea are “dangerous and irresponsible,” the New York Times reported. The newspaper also noted it was uncertain how far NATO could go in its admonishments of Russia, since Ukraine is not part of the western alliance.

Canada’s delegation includes three Conservative caucus members and four Ukrainian-Canadian community leaders – a composition that drew criticism Wednesday from opposition leaders who said they’d liked to have sent representatives, too. Paul Grod, the head of the Ukrainian Canadian Congress and a delegate member, is also now in Kiev.


----------



## pbi

> ....Still, U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel warned Russia to stay out the crisis...



Stay out or what? 

Really now, are we going to war over Russia being nasty in its own back yard? Did we go to war over Georgia, or Chechnya, or Czechoslovakia, or the Hungarian Uprising? What if Russia made a similar threat to the US over US military involvement in hypothetical situations in Mexico or South America? The Americans would react about the same as the Russians will to this. "Manifest Destiny" has its Russian equivalent, I'm sure.

Hopefully the US thinks this through before: a) making more threats that it won't back up (like Syria), thus looking stupid and weak again; or b) trying to bully Russia in its own arena, miscalculating it, and causing a conflict we don't need or want, for dubious reasons.


----------



## Kirkhill

As always, Monty  has the answer.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9V7zbWNznbs


----------



## Robert0288

Here's some more goodies from tonight so far.



> *Pro-Russian group seizes airport in Ukraine's Crimea region: reports*27 Feb 2014 20:35 EST
> Source: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/ousted-ukrainian-president-resurfaces-russia-lawful-ruler-article-1.1703569
> 
> _About 50 men stormed the Simferopol Airport and took it over peacefully early Friday. The report came hours after mysterious heavily armed pro-Russia gunmen seized control of a government building in Crimea and hoisted the Russian flag.
> Armed men sympathetic to the Russians seized an airport in Ukraine's strategic Crimea early Friday as tensions in the region escalated.
> The 50 or so men who stormed the Simferopol Airport wore "Russian Navy ensigns" insignia and may have been associated with the dozens of pro-Russia gunmen who seized control of government buildings in the region's capital on Thursday and raised the Russian flag.
> The airport was reportedly operating normally after the peaceful takeover, according to reports………._





> *Crimea airport in Ukraine blocked by Russian army, Ukraine says*
> 28 Feb 2014, 2:09 EST
> Source: http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/crimea-airport-in-ukraine-blocked-by-russian-army-ukraine-says-1.2554798
> 
> _The Russian military are blocking an airport in the Black Sea port of Sevastopol in Crimea near the Russian naval base, Ukraine's interior minister says.
> Arsen Avakov_ (Interim Interior Minister)_ said in a Facebook post that the Belbek international airport in Sevastopol is blocked by military units of the Russian navy. Avakov called the blockade "military invasion and occupation."
> Separately, dozens of armed men in military uniforms without markings were patrolling the airport on Friday as tensions in the country's Russian-speaking southeast escalated.
> Russian state television quoted eyewitnesses saying the men arrived at the Simferopol airport in the early hours on Friday._



Here is one of the pictures I've found over twitter rebroadcasted over the news.  Those to me don't look like civilian "volunteers".  Especially since they all have the same boot.  Hell thats something that we can't even do.


----------



## Robert0288

2nd Airport taken



> *Armed Men Take Over Two Airports in Crimea*
> 28 Feb 2014, 3:20 EST
> Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/01/world/europe/ukraine.html?_r=0
> 
> _SIMFEROPOL, Ukraine — Amid the specter of a possible showdown between Ukraine’s fledgling government and the Kremlin, news agencies quoted the Ukrainian interior minister on Friday as saying armed men were in control of two airports in the region.
> 
> “I consider what has happened to be an armed invasion and occupation in violation of all international agreements and norms,” Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said on his Facebook page, according to Reuters.
> 
> At Simferopol, the regional capital, a large number of masked armed men were patrolling the international airport Friday morning. They were dressed in camouflage uniforms and carrying assault rifles but their uniforms bore no insignia and it was not clear who they were. The men took up positions around the main administrative building but did not appear to be attempting to enter the terminals and the airport appeared to be operating normally.
> 
> One local resident who was at the airport said he didn’t know who the armed men were. “They’re not talking,” he said.
> 
> Mr. Avakov said Russian naval forces also took over a military airport near at Belbek near Sevastopol where the Russian Black Sea fleet is based, Reuters said._


----------



## The Bread Guy

And here's what the dudes at Simferopol airport apparently look like ....





Meanwhile, Russia's foreign ministry continues to feed the narrative via Twitter ....

"Russian Foreign Ministry to give tough response to violations of compatriots’ rights"
"Russia calls on Ukraine to avoid religion-based conflicts"
"The besmearing of historical monuments in Ukraine continues.Now they violated memory of the warriors-liberators ***"
*** - Meaning WW2, with the monuments in question marking "70 years of liberation of Ukraine" - from the Nazis, not the Communists


----------



## The Bread Guy

The Sergeants Major for these "Crimean Self-Defence" forces must be beaming - pretty damned uniform, with almost zero non-issue kit to be seen on the mystery men walking around Crimea's airports .....












More here.

Not to worry, though - Russian media say it's not a "takeover" ....


> A group of unidentified armed men in military uniforms raided Simferopol International Airport in the capital of the Crimean Autonomous Region, Ukraine. They have since left the airport terminal, but are still patrolling it from outside.
> 
> According to eyewitnesses, in the middle of the night at least three KamAZ trucks without license plates drove to the airport with about 50 men.
> 
> At first the group cordoned off the airport’s domestic flights terminal, but then pushed forward.
> 
> An airport spokesman, however, rejected reports of a takeover. He said that about 50 armed men arrived at the airport to search for Ukrainian airborne troops. However, after finding out that there were no military personnel present on the tarmac, they apologized and left the territory, Igor Stratilati told Echo of Moscow radio.
> 
> Speaking later to the Dozhd (Rain) TV channel, Stratilati said those people weren’t from the Russian military. He added about 30 of them were still outside the airport ....



Edited to add:  They could be "military tourists", too, according to one Ukrainian media account (in Ukrainian - Google English here):


> The Russian social networks gather troops "tourists" in Ukraine, which asked men to go from 18 to 45 years of experience serving in the army.
> 
> In social networks call for Russian men to go to the Crimea, Donetsk and Kharkiv as the most important "points of resistance".
> 
> "The more we have," Russian tourists "will be out in the territory of a neighboring state, the more formal studies in leadership of our country to apply the necessary steps to protect its citizens abroad," - said in one of the calls.
> 
> "Now in the Crimea the fate of all the Russian people and the fate of our entire Great", - explained the organizers of "tourism".


----------



## Robert0288

Here's a video of a road block.  Seems like they have a bunch of Mil pattern trucks as well.  For a random bunch of 'volunteers'  They sure are equipped well.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26380646


----------



## The Bread Guy

Ukraine:  this certainly isn't a _policing_ issue, shared here in accordance with the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the _Copyright Act_ ....


> Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov has said that he sees the situation with the blocking of airports in Crimea as an "armed invasion and occupation," he has written on his Facebook page.
> 
> "I assess what is happening as an armed invasion and occupation, in violation of all international treaties and norms. This is a direct provocation of armed bloodshed on the territory of a sovereign state," Avakov said.
> 
> "This is no longer the competence of the Interior Ministry. This is the competence of the National Security and Defense Council. While there is no direct armed conflict, diplomats have to speak," he said.
> 
> He noted that the Interior Troops and the Interior Ministry of Ukraine had intensified patrols near the airports, but the tension is rising.
> 
> "The law enforcement agencies will not be able to resist regular military units," he said.


Minister's statement in Ukrainian on Facebook

Ukrainian media version of "those guys with guns" at Simferopol Airport in Crimea:


> A group of armed men in military uniform without signs of identification seized Simferopol Airport in Crimea in the early hours of Friday.
> 
> About 50 people were armed and in the same gear as those who seized the buildings of the Crimean parliament and government on Thursday morning, eyewitnesses told an Interfax-Ukraine correspondent.
> 
> The men arrived at the airport in three KAMAZ vehicles without license plates and signs of identification.
> 
> A group of people with Russian Navy ensigns gathered at the airport's building.
> 
> At the beginning, the armed men surrounded the airport's domestic flights terminal, then moved farther.
> 
> The goal of the seizure isn't known at the moment.



Thanks to Twitter, this didn't take long ....


----------



## George Wallace

Robert0288 said:
			
		

> Here's some more goodies from tonight so far.
> 
> Here is one of the pictures I've found over twitter rebroadcasted over the news.  Those to me don't look like civilian "volunteers".  Especially since they all have the same boot.  Hell thats something that we can't even do.



...And Ukrainian Tire only stocks one type of assault rifle in their sporting goods section.   >


----------



## Journeyman

They also seem to have uniformly-applied ROE, given that in none of the pics posted here do the troops have mags on; they seem to understand the escalation process.


----------



## wannabe SF member

They're wearing the new Russian digital pattern and I think I recognize their helmet.  6B7-1M kevlar helmet to be more precize (although I could be wrong because the camo cover hides the shape a bit)


----------



## CougarKing

Here we go... 



> *Ukraine crisis live: Russia admits its troops are moving in Crimea*
> 
> The Telegraph
> By Roland Oliphant, in Crimea and Harriet Alexander
> 
> 4:14PM GMT 28 Feb 2014
> 
> *Russian troops have moved into Crimea in what Moscow is calling a mission to “protect Black Sea Fleet’s positions” but which the Ukrainian government has denounced as an “armed intervention.”
> 
> The Russian foreign ministry said Friday that it had informed the Ukrainian government that armoured units from the Black Sea Fleet base near Sevastopol had entered Crimea in order to protect fleet positions.*
> 
> “The Ukrainian side was also passed a note regarding the movement of armoured vehicles of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, which is happening in full accordance with the foundation Russian-Ukrainian agreement on the Black Sea Fleet,” the ministry said in a statement posted on its website on Friday afternoon.
> 
> In the same note the Russian foreign ministry said it had declined a Ukrainian request for “bilateral consultations” on events in Crimea because they are “the result of recent internal political processes in Ukraine.”
> 
> Unconfirmed reports were emerging late on Friday that a convoy of armoured vehicles were moving up the Sevastopol highway toward Simferopol, the regional capital.
> 
> 
> Earlier armed men in unmarked uniforms occupied key transportation hubs in the Crimea on Friday, in what the Ukrainian government denounced as an “armed intervention” by Russian troops.
> 
> Men in unmarked camouflage uniforms occupied two airports and blocked the road between Simferopol and Sevastopol before dawn, while a Russian warship was reported to have blockaded the entrance to the bay at Balaklava, the home of the Ukrainian coast guard.
> 
> Several dozen men in camouflage uniforms and carrying AK-74 assault rifles and PK 7.62 mm machine guns occupied a restaurant and patrolled the car park and forecourt of Simferopol international airport early on Friday morning.
> 
> The soldiers, who wore no identifying insignia, refused to answer questions from journalists as they strolled up and down outside the airport.
> 
> The troops made no apparent attempt to interfere with the running of the airport or take over key infrastructure, contenting themselves with strolling up and down the car park at a leisurely place, apparently deliberately for the benefit of television cameras.
> 
> *While those patrolling the car park carried assault rifles without magazines attached, belt ammunition could be seen loaded into two medium machine guns carried by sentries outside the occupied restaurant building. Some rifles carried telescopic sights and under-barrel grenade launchers.
> 
> They were backed by civilian volunteers wearing the orange and black St George’s ribbon, a symbol of Russian military prowess that has been adopted by pro-Russian activists in Crimea as an identifying mark.*
> 
> “We are here for your safety,” said one man, who described himself as a member of the “people’s militia and ordered journalists away from the restaurant the troops had occupied. “If you don’t move away from this building maybe someone will throw a grenade at you,” he said. He denied he was threatening journalists, citing an incident yesterday when armed men in the regional parliament building reportedly answered shouted questions with a stun grenade.
> 
> “It is an unpredictable situation and we want to make sure everything remains calm. We are just people from this city who want to protect their families,” he said.
> 
> The man refused to give his name, but said he and his group arrived at the airport at 6 AM. He refused to say who controlled his "militia" or whether they accompanied or knew the identity of the mysterious soldiers.
> 
> *Meanwhile, at least 20 men wearing the uniform of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet carrying automatic riffles were reported to have surrounded a Ukrainian border guard post in the port city of Sevastopol on Friday.
> 
> A serviceman who identified himself as a Black Sea Fleet officer said “we are here…so as not to have a repeat of the Maidan,” Reuters reported.*
> 
> *A Russian warship is reported to have blocked the bay at Balaklava, where the Ukrainian coast guard is based.*


----------



## Kirkhill

Here's another thought.  KGB Propagandist VV Putin rides onto the Maidan on a Harley backed by his Russian brothers.

I think Putin might have the brass ones necessary to try it.  He understands the importance of symbolism and also seems keen to not be seen as firing the first shot.



> Night Wolves, Putin's 'Biker Brothers,' To Ride To Ukraine To Support Pro-Russia Cause
> Agence France Presse  | by
> Posted: 02/28/2014 1:06 pm EST Updated: 02/28/2014 10:59 am EST
> 
> A group of Russian bikers called the Night Wolves that regularly rides with President Vladimir Putin is heading to Ukraine to back pro-Russian protests, its leader said Friday.
> 
> Putin has ridden a Harley-Davidson with the bikers and called them his "brothers". He is said to be close to its long-haired leader, Alexander Zaldostanov, nicknamed "the Surgeon".
> 
> The patriotic group opposes Ukraine's European integration and the protest movement that has taken power in Kiev. Its website says its members are "ready to die like warriors".
> 
> "Tomorrow people are organising an action called Russian Spring," Zaldostanov told the RIA Novosti news agency, saying the event would start from the town of Popasnaya in eastern Ukraine.
> 
> "The column will start at 8:00 am (0600 GMT) and ride across the whole eastern part of Ukraine," he said, adding that he himself was going to the Crimean port of Sevastopol, where Russia's Black Sea fleet is based.
> 
> The overwhelmingly Russian-speaking peninsula of Crimea has emerged as a flashpoint in Ukraine after the ousting of president Viktor Yanukovych, with many residents openly hostile to the new authorities in Kiev.
> 
> The bikers' leader said members also planned to deliver "humanitarian aid" to Sevastopol on four-wheeler bikes.
> 
> Putin has several times appeared at bike rallies with Zaldostanov, a towering figure who wears studded leather and ties his long hair back in a pony tail.
> 
> Last year, Putin personally decorated Zaldostanov with a state honour after the group helped restore a monument symbolic of Soviet war heroism in the southern city of Volgograd.
> 
> In 2011, Putin, riding a Harley-Davidson, led a column of the bikers at a rally held on a former Soviet warship in the Russian Black Sea port city of Novorossiisk.
> 
> The club has its own Kiev branch, which says its aim is to "spread Russian influence around the world".



Link

Somewhat reminiscent of that OTHER 1745 battle, Fontenoy.







The French and Hanoverian troops advanced to within musket shot of each other then offered the other side the "privilege" of the first shot.


----------



## pbi

_"Hello: I am a tourist not a Captain of Naval Infantry, and these men are members of a local biathlon society not Fleet Marines. That is not a Naval Infantry IFV it is a bus. OK- a bus with armour plate. Shut up with saying things like that or some people I don't know anything about and have no control over will throw a grenade at you.

Those vessels ar not blockading the fascist provocateurs of the Ukrainian Coast Guard: they are conducting harbour sight-seeing tours.

What? No, those are not attack helicopters. They just aren't, that's all. Remember what I said about the grenade?

Yes, our outfits do match quite amazingly well, don't they? No, we are not in the military. We are not even Russian. Turn off that cell phone camera."_


----------



## The Bread Guy

pbi said:
			
		

> _"Hello: I am a tourist not a Captain of Naval Infantry, and these men are members of a local biathlon society not Fleet Marines. That is not a Naval Infantry IFV it is a bus. OK- a bus with armour plate. Shut up with saying things like that or some people I don't know anything about and have no control over will throw a grenade at you.
> 
> Those vessels ar not blockading the fascist provocateurs of the Ukrainian Coast Guard: they are conducting harbour sight-seeing tours.
> 
> What? No, those are not attack helicopters. They just aren't, that's all. Remember what I said about the grenade?
> 
> Yes, our outfits do match quite amazingly well, don't they? No, we are not in the military. We are not even Russian. Turn off that cell phone camera."_


 :rofl: - milpoints inbound


----------



## wannabe SF member

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> Here's another thought.  KGB Propagandist VV Putin rides onto the Maidan on a Harley backed by his Russian brothers.
> 
> I think Putin might have the brass ones necessary to try it.  He understands the importance of symbolism and also seems keen to not be seen as firing the first shot.
> 
> Link
> 
> Somewhat reminiscent of that OTHER 1745 battle, Fontenoy.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The French and Hanoverian troops advanced to within musket shot of each other then offered the other side the "privilege" of the first shot.



Kirkhill, as an avid student of 18th century warfare, I must admit I do not understand your analogy. Care to enlighten this young man bit?


----------



## dapaterson

So, how long does it take to drive half a league (2.778km) on a Harley?


----------



## Journeyman

...and why are they riding Harleys instead of Urals?


Typical social climbers   :


----------



## The Bread Guy

And what's the Ukrainian military up to?
1)  Waiting for a state of emergency to be declared.


> .... Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine Andriy Parubiy stated during a televised briefing that the two airports were occupied by separate groups commanded by Moscow, and that Ukraine could not deploy military forces in Crimea without introducing a state of emergency. He then made clear that in the event of direct aggression, the Ukrainian army and border guards would make an appropriately measured response. At the moment, no military facilities in Crimea are occupied by Russian forces ....


2)  Welcoming a new military boss.


> Acting President of Ukraine, Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Oleksandr Turchynov has signed a decree appointing Mykhailo Kutsyn to the post of chief of general staff – commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
> 
> Corresponding decree No. 172/2014 was published on the Web site of the head of state on February 28.
> 
> Kutsyn was born in 1957 in the village of Svoboda, Berehove district, Zakarpattia region, according to the web site of the Defense Ministry of Ukraine.
> 
> Prior to this appointment, he served as deputy minister of defense of Ukraine from March 2010.


3)  Helping load (Czech) planes with seriously injured folks.


> Twenty-seven Ukrainians who were wounded in the recent clashes between protesters and the government forces will be flown from Kiev to Prague for medical treatment by two Czech air force planes tonight, the transfer's coordinator Rene Kocik told CTK.
> 
> Penetration wounds and fractures prevail among the Ukrainian patients' injuries, Kocik, from the People in Need Czech humanitarian organisation, said.
> 
> The youngest patient, aged 17, is threatened with a leg amputation due to a bad gunshot wound. The transfer is a chance for his leg to be saved, Kocik said.
> 
> The wounded Ukrainians will be treated in three Prague hospital, Health Minister Svatopluk Nemecek (Social Democrats, CSSD) told journalists.
> 
> The patients suitable for treatment in Prague were selected in Kiev by People in Need's six-member team in the past days.
> 
> Kocik said the list of patients has been closed, no more people will be added to it ....


4)  Listening to complaints about Russia violating Ukrainian airspace.


> Ukraine protested on Friday to Russia that it had violated its airspace and broken the terms of an agreement under which Moscow leases a base for its Black Sea fleet in Crimea.
> 
> The Foreign Ministry gave no details but the Ukrainian border guard service said more than 10 Russian military helicopters had flown from Russia into Ukrainian airspace over the Crimea region.
> 
> Russian servicemen also blocked off a unit of Ukrainian border guards near the port city of Sevastopol, where part of Russia's Black Sea fleet is based, a Reuters correspondent said ....



Meanwhile ....

_".... The Russian foreign ministry said Friday that it had informed the Ukrainian government that armoured units from the Black Sea Fleet base near Sevastopol had entered Crimea in order to protect fleet positions ...."_ (more in the official statement in Russian here)
Russian consulate issues Russian passports to former Ukrainian "elite Berkut riot police" now in Crimea
_"The regional parliament of Crimea, a largely Russian-speaking part of Ukraine, has formed a new Cabinet of ministers, parliamentary speaker Vladimir Konstantinov told reporters Friday, APA reports quoting Itar-Tass.  The speaker and the newly appointed pro-Russia prime minister, Sergei Aksenov, said the names of the other ministers would later be released by the parliament’s press service ...."_

And the U.N.?  Holding an emergency Security Council meeting.

How about Canada?


> Canada warned Russia on Friday not to breach the sovereignty of its Ukraine neighbour, joining other countries in sending a strong message to Moscow.
> 
> "As Canadians we emphasize our very strong support — and we emphasize this to all the countries in the region — our very strong support for the territorial integrity and the respect of the territorial integrity of Ukraine," Prime Minister Stephen Harper said at an event in Toronto.
> 
> "We remain very supportive of the Ukrainian people in their desire for democracy and a better future."
> 
> While not specifically naming Russia in his comments, Harper called the reports out of Ukraine "worrying."
> 
> Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird, speaking from Kyiv, went further, singling out Russia directly.
> 
> Baird said he was calling on Ukraine's neighbours to respect its sovereignty "and avoid any actions that could prove and appear provocative."
> 
> "With this in mind I am concerned that Russian military exercises so close to the Ukrainian border are not helpful at this time when emotions and when tensions are running high."  ....



Finally, a bit of AFV pRon .....








.... and at least one dude with at least the belt in:


----------



## Kirkhill

Inky said:
			
		

> Kirkhill, as an avid student of 18th century warfare, I must admit I do not understand your analogy. Care to enlighten this young man bit?



At Fontenoy the British Hanoverians marched towards the French lines.  At the point where the British expected the French to open fire they held their fire so the British continued to advance.  By regimental lore the advance only stopped when the officers were at swords points of each other.
The French continued to hold their fire.  The British did likewise.  It was a stalemate.

The reason for holding fire was that convention held that the first side to fire lost because the "target" side was seldom badly damaged by the first volley but they could then charge into the mass of the "firing" side while the firing side was blinded by their own powder smoke and struggling to reload.

I see the current situation having echoes of that standoff.  I think Putin would prefer that the Ukrainians or NATO were seen as the aggressor so he will do everything provocative that he can, short of firing the first shot.

By the way, at Fontenoy, the British broke the French lines but the French won the battle.


----------



## Kirkhill

dapaterson said:
			
		

> So, how long does it take to drive half a league (2.778km) on a Harley?



And where is Capt Nolan when you need him?


----------



## Old Sweat

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> And where is Capt Nolan when you need him?



Don't forget Captain Dunn.


----------



## George Wallace

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Finally, a bit of AFV pRon .....



BTR 80's


----------



## CougarKing

150 troops per plane...is this typical Russian infantry company strength?

National Post




> *Obama warns Putin of 'costs' of Ukraine military action as Russian planes land*
> 
> (...)- EDITED
> 
> A day after gunmen seized the Ukrainian parliament in Crimea and raised the Russian flag, a representative of Oleksandr Turchinov said *13 Russian aircraft had landed on the Black Sea peninsula with 150 personnel on board each one.
> 
> Separately, a spokesman for the Ukrainian border service said eight Russian transport planes have landed in Crimea with unknown cargo.*
> 
> Serhiy Astakhov told The Associated Press that the Il-76 planes arrived unexpectedly Friday and were given permission to land, one after the other, at Gvardeiskoye air base, north of the regional capital, Simferopol.
> 
> Astakhov said the people in the planes refused to identify themselves and waved off customs officials, saying they didn’t require their services.
> 
> Earlier Friday, Ukraine’s UN ambassador said he had told the UN Security Council that *Russian military helicopters and transport planes are entering his country and that Russian armed forces seized Crimea’s main airport.
> 
> Russia’s Interfax agency cited Serhyi Kunitsyn, a Ukraine presidential envoy to Crimea, telling ATR television that 13 Russian planes carrying 150 Russian troops each landed at Gvardeiskoye air base. *That report could not be confirmed.
> 
> Turchynov, who stepped in as president after Viktor Yanukovych fled Kyiv last weekend, said Friday that the Ukrainian military will fulfill its duty but will not be drawn into provocations.
> 
> Heavily armed men in military uniform arrived at strategic facilities in Crimea, prompting Ukraine to accuse Russia of “military invasion and occupation” — a claim that brought an alarming new dimension to the crisis.
> 
> (...)- EDITED


----------



## Kirkhill

About the question of how many runners in the CAAG:

How about a 50 km road move from Sevastopol to Simferopol in the wheeled BTR 80 and not being able to complete it?



> 16.40
> 
> Journalists in Crimea have spotted a convoy of* nine Russian armored personnel carriers and a truck* on a road between the port city of Sevastopol and the regional capital, Sinferopol.
> 
> The Russian tricolor flags were painted on the vehicles, which were *parked on the side of the road near the town of Bakhchisarai, apparently because one of them had mechanical problems.*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia is supposed to notify Ukraine of any troop movements outside the naval base it maintains in Sevastopol under a lease agreement with Ukraine.
> 
> 
> — Robert Caruso (@robertcaruso) February 28, 2014



Telegraph

Also there is this interesting piece:



> 10.10
> 
> Our foreign correspondent Harriet Alexander says worried politicians inside Ukraine’s parliament have pleaded with Britain and the US to come to their rescue.
> 
> The two Western powers signed a memorandum with Ukraine in 1994, which Kiev’s parliament now wants enforcing. The Budapest Memorandum, signed by Bill Clinton, John Major, Boris Yeltsin and Leonid Kuchma – the then-rulers of the USA, UK, Russia and Ukraine – promises to uphold the territorial integrity of Ukraine, in return for Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons.
> 
> Article One reads: “The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine ... to respect the Independence and Sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.”
> 
> And Kiev is now claiming that their country’s borders are not being respected.



David Cameron: Churchill or Chamberlain?

Perhaps David could arrange for his Paras to conduct an expedient training exercise with the Poles.  Purely coincidental in timing with the Russian exercises.

The Uhlan Eagle exercises between Britain and Poland called for the Brits to send 16 AAB and one of the resident Armour Brigades in Germany into Poland to exercise alongside a Polish Armoured Division.

1998 Uhlan Eagle Exercise Video

Is Putin bluffing and can it be called?


----------



## MilEME09

This has been making the rounds the past few hours, somehow it doesn't look too friendly

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=287_1393605865


----------



## Kirkhill

> 22.13 US President Barack Obama "deeply concerned" about reports of Russian military activity in Ukraine and warned of "costs" to any infringement of its sovereignty.
> 
> QuoteThe United States will stand with the international community in affirming that there will be costs for any military intervention in Ukraine/ We are now deeply concerned by reports of military movements taken by the Russian Federation inside of Ukraine.



I think the Ukrainians would prefer that Obama offered to stand with them rather than the "International Community"

Nor do I think they will be thrilled with this:



> Obama recognized that Russia had interests and cultural and economic ties with Ukraine...



A bit early to be playing "honest broker".


----------



## wannabe SF member

I'm sure a lot of people (me included) are seriously questioning the fact that Ukraine would be so valuable as to lead us into a diplomatic stand-off with the Russians. IS it really worth it? I feel like Russia has a lot more to gain from changing the situation than we have in maintaining the status Quo. 

I also feel that we might have shot ourselves in the foot when we contributed to upsetting the status Quo by giving moral and diplomatic support to the Maidan Protesters and by not taking further steps to insure the agreement between the Yanukovych and the opposition was respected.

I feel that given Obama's track record and the EU's abysmal track record, we're likely to end up with another big win for Putin. 

Right now the Russians are putting boots on the ground and clearly indicating that they're willing to expend their relatively resources on defending their sphere of influence. I don't see any situation in which we will even come close to sending forces in Western Ukraine let alone in the east.


----------



## MilEME09

Inky said:
			
		

> I'm sure a lot of people (me included) are seriously questioning the fact that Ukraine would be so valuable as to lead us into a diplomatic stand-off with the Russians. IS it really worth it? I feel like Russia has a lot more to gain from changing the situation than we have in maintaining the status Quo.
> 
> I also feel that we might have shot ourselves in the foot when we contributed to upsetting the status Quo by giving moral and diplomatic support to the Maidan Protesters and by not taking further steps to insure the agreement between the Yanukovych and the opposition was respected.
> 
> I feel that given Obama's track record and the EU's abysmal track record, we're likely to end up with another big win for Putin.
> 
> Right now the Russians are putting boots on the ground and clearly indicating that they're willing to expend their relatively resources on defending their sphere of influence. I don't see any situation in which we will even come close to sending forces in Western Ukraine let alone in the east.



The similarities between Ukraine and Georgia in 2008 at the moment are rather strong, just after the Olympics, action threatened by west but nothing done, Russia wins in the end.


----------



## Edward Campbell

I'm having a little trouble with the "win/lose" narrative. Russia/Putin is acting to preserve the _status quo_ during a disturbance.

That _status quo_ centres on the Russians have a major naval base in Crimea. 

Are we suggesting that the West/USA/Obama-Merkel should do something to upset that?


----------



## vonGarvin

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> About the question of how many runners in the CAAG:
> 
> How about a 50 km road move from Sevastopol to Simferopol in the wheeled BTR 80 and not being able to complete it?
> 
> Telegraph
> 
> Also there is this interesting piece:
> 
> David Cameron: Churchill or Chamberlain?
> 
> Perhaps David could arrange for his Paras to conduct an expedient training exercise with the Poles.  Purely coincidental in timing with the Russian exercises.
> 
> The Uhlan Eagle exercises between Britain and Poland called for the Brits to send 16 AAB and one of the resident Armour Brigades in Germany into Poland to exercise alongside a Polish Armoured Division.
> 
> 1998 Uhlan Eagle Exercise Video
> 
> Is Putin bluffing and can it be called?


----------



## Kirkhill

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> I'm having a little trouble with the "win/lose" narrative. Russia/Putin is acting to preserve the _status quo_ during a disturbance.
> 
> That _status quo_ centres on the Russians have a major naval base in Crimea.
> 
> Are we suggesting that the West/USA/Obama-Merkel should do something to upset that?



I'm certainly not doing that.  I AM suggesting that we demonstrate a more forceful posture by demonstrating a practical willingness to uphold the guarantees of sovereignty that were given to Ukraine.  That could be accomplished by having the Poles and the Hungarians "invite" foreign troops in on exercises.

The intent of the overarching exercise is just to demonstrate willingness and to be better placed to march forward to the sword-point.  

I don't propose going into the Crimea.  I do propose being in position to discourage the Russians from going into Ukraine proper.  

I would point out that the Crimea is a peninsula connected to the Eastern Ukraine by an isthmus.  If Russia doesn't hold the Donbass the only access it would have to the Crimea would be by sea across the Sea of Azov.   Russia has a strong imperative to hold both East Ukraine AND the Crimea.

Additionally, I think we are missing something in this discussion, and that is about the Russian mentality.  I believe the problem is not that the Russians see the Ukrainians as Russians but that they see themselves as Ukrainians.

The Rus originated west of the Dniepr with their capital in Kiev.  500 years later the Kievan Rus established Moscow.  Now the Kievan Rus are telling the Muscovite Rus that they are not the same.  They, the Muscovite Rus, or Muskalis, are not Rus - they have too much of the Mongol and the Khazar about them to be "proper" Rus.

World War 1 started for Britain over a Belgian guarantee of sovereignty.

World War 2 started for Britain despite ignoring Czech sovereignty.

Neither play prevented war.


----------



## vonGarvin

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> I'm having a little trouble with the "win/lose" narrative. Russia/Putin is acting to preserve the _status quo_ during a disturbance.
> 
> That _status quo_ centres on the Russians have a major naval base in Crimea.
> 
> Are we suggesting that the West/USA/Obama-Merkel should do something to upset that?


If I were king, I would make some noise and harumph.  But wouldn't do a bloody thing.

And kirkhill: one side tracked afv isn't abnormal for any army.

Previous question on company size: Russian companies are smaller than ours, with no integral echelon and a small HQ. They number around 100 soldiers in three platoons.


----------



## Kirkhill

Technoviking said:
			
		

> If I were king, I would make some noise and harumph.  But wouldn't do a bloody thing.
> 
> And kirkhill: one side tracked afv isn't abnormal for any army.
> 
> Previous question on company size: Russian companies are smaller than ours, with no integral echelon and a small HQ. They number around 100 soldiers in three platoons.



True on the AFV TV  but I am just having difficulty with pace at which this situation is developing.  And the numbers.  In all honesty I am a bit underwhelmed.

The supporting "crowds" in the Crimea have been thin and seemingly limited to Sevastopol.  The largest crowd size I have seen reported is 1000.
The crowd seems to be largely middle aged Russians, possibly ex-service personnel?

The "Invaders" originally were 200 light infantry (possibly Naval Infantry or even Spetsnaz.  They may have been reinforced by an additional 2000 light infantry delivered by Fixed Wing and Rotary assets.

This doesn't feel like Czechoslovakia '68 or even Afghanistan '80.   And this is happening right on Russia's borders.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Journeyman said:
			
		

> They also seem to have uniformly-applied ROE, given that in none of the pics posted here do the troops have mags on; they seem to understand the escalation process.



Spetznaz???


----------



## Edward Campbell

According to a BBC report the Rusians are preparing to answer a "call" from Crimea for "help." I'm guessing the Rusians can/will use the Budapest memorandum as a cover fig leaf ...






We had to do it ... we were asked!


----------



## Edward Campbell

Who reads Russian?

Does this, reported as being graffiti on a wall in Simferopol, next to Crimean interior ministry, really say "The Russians Are Coming!"?


----------



## The Bread Guy

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Does this, reported as being graffiti on a wall in Simferopol, next to Crimean interior ministry, really say "The Russians Are Coming!"?


According to Google Translate, yup.

This Tweet seems to sum up a whole lot here ....


> Russia can pass laws legalizing their actions faster than the west can consult a thesaurus for new synonyms for “Concern.”



Meanwhile, a quick update, from the Russian foreign ministry:


> .... "Unidentified armed men sent from Kiev attempted to seize the building of the Interior Ministry of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea in the early hours of March 1. The treacherous provocation resulted in casualties. Self-defense units' resolute actions helped avert the attempt to seize the Interior Ministry building. These events confirm the desire of well-known political circles in Kiev to destabilize the situation on the peninsula," says the statement available on the Russian Foreign Ministry website.
> 
> "We are calling on those who issue such orders from Kiev to exercise restraint. We view the attempts to further escalate the already tense situation in Crimea as extremely irresponsible," it said ....


Gleiwitz 2014?


----------



## AirDet

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Who reads Russian?
> 
> Does this, reported as being graffiti on a wall in Simferopol, next to Crimean interior ministry, really say "The Russians Are Coming!"?



That's exactly what it says. Русские идут! The Russians are coming! Maybe I shouldn't admit to speaking Russian. It's friggin cold there this time of year.


----------



## CougarKing

Crimea now has a pro-Russia "Prime Minister"?

All eyes are now on how Ukraine's new regime in Kiev and how the West/US will respond...

Does anyone think that the Ukrainian military will try to retake Crimea?

Seems there are also unconfirmed reports of a skirmish between Russian and Ukrainian warships...



> From the Associated Press via Yahoo News
> 
> 
> *Pro-Russian leader of Ukraine's Crimea claims control of military, police; asks Putin for help*
> 
> 
> The Canadian Press
> 
> By Dalton Bennett And David McHugh
> 
> SEVASTOPOL, Ukraine - The pro-Russian leader of Ukraine's Crimea region claimed control of the military and police there Saturday and appealed to Russia's President Vladimir Putin for help in keeping peace, sharpening the discord between the two Slavic neighbour countries.
> 
> It was the latest escalation following the ouster of Ukraine's pro-Russian president last week by a protest movement aimed at turning Ukraine toward the European Union and away from Russia.
> 
> Armed men described as Russian troops took control of key airports and a communications centre in Crimea on Friday. Ukraine has accused Russia of a "military invasion and occupation" — a claim that brought an alarming new dimension to the crisis, and raised fears that Moscow is moving to intervene on the strategic peninsula where Russia's Black Sea fleet is based.
> 
> Ukraine's population is divided in loyalties between Russia and Europe, with much of western Ukraine advocating closer ties with the European Union while eastern and southern regions look to Russia for support. Crimea is mainly Russian-speaking.
> 
> *Crimean's prime minister, Sergei Aksyonov, declared that the armed forces, the police, the national security service and border guards in the region will answer only to his orders.
> *
> 
> Ukraine's Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk opened a cabinet meeting in the capital, Kyiv, by calling on Russia not to provoke discord in Crimea, a peninsula on the Black Sea.
> 
> (...)-EDITED


----------



## The Bread Guy

Retired AF Guy said:
			
		

> Spetznaz???


According to some, maybe, or, according to a security analyst, "Russian Blackwater"?
Another bit of vehicle pRon ....




.... alleged to be "Russian army blocked Ukrainian Sea Guard Unit in Balaklava, near Sevastopol."



			
				S.M.A. said:
			
		

> Does anyone think that the Ukrainian military will try to retake Crimea?


Good question - the latest from the UKR MoD, in Ukrainian (GoogEng here):


> Leadership of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine learned that from 2 nd to 5 o'clock in the morning the night from February 28 to March 1, 2014 radical forces plan to carry out illegal activities, namely, to enter the military units stationed in the Crimea and disarm personnel.
> 
> Ministry of Defence of Ukraine warns against committing criminal intent, and officially reported: in the case of these actions unknowns, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will act in accordance with the laws of Ukraine and Regulations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.



Meanwhile, UKR announces a new navy boss, too, after naming a new chief of staff yesterday (all Google English) - thrown into the deep end, eh?


----------



## CougarKing

Oh, how "thoughtful" of Putin...asking his parliament to rubber stamp an action...which he's already done even before asking.  :

Also, it seems the US, UK (and other allies?) did sign a 1994 treaty, called the Budapest Memorandum giving Ukraine a security guarantee. Will the West hold up its end of the agreement? We'll see.

National Post



> *Putin asks Russian parliament for permission to use military inside Ukraine*
> 
> KYIV, Ukraine — *Russian President Vladimir Putin has asked parliament for permission to use the country’s military in Ukraine, the Kremlin said Saturday.
> 
> Putin said the move is needed to protect ethnic Russians and the personnel of a Russian military base in Ukraine’s strategic region of Crimea.*
> 
> “I’m submitting a request for using the armed forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine pending the normalization of the socio-political situation in that country,” Putin said in a statement released by the Kremlin.
> 
> He sent the request to the Russian legislature’s upper house, which has to approve the motion, according to the constitution.
> 
> *In Crimea, the pro-Russian regional prime minister, Sergei Aksyonov, had earlier claimed control of the military and police there and asked Putin for help in keeping peace, sharpening the discord between the two Slavic neighbour countries.*
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## Edward Campbell

It's part of that 'fig leaf' that uses things like 'requests' and the _Budapest Memorandum_ and rubber stamp parliaments to put lipstick on a pig.


----------



## CougarKing

Here's more on the treaty called *The Budapest Memorandum*, signed in 1994 by the US and UK, etc., which effectively gives Ukraine a security guarantee in return for Kiev giving up its nuclear weapons during the 1990s disarmament of former Soviet nuke arsenals across all the then newly independent former satellite republics.

So, as said, will the US/West respond to this violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and uphold its end of the treaty? We'll see.

More about the treaty from this UK Daily Mail excerpt, with the article's highlights;




> *Revealed: The forgotten treaty which could drag the US and UK into WAR with Russia if Putin's troops intervene in Ukraine*
> 
> The agreement sees signatories promise to protect Ukraine's borders
> 
> *It was signed by Bill Clinton, John Major, Boris Yeltsin and Leonid Kuchma in 1994
> 
> Ukrainian parliament has now reached out directly to all the countries who signed the treaty*
> 
> Putin currently has 150,000 troops on Ukraine's borders and it is reported some have crossed into the country
> 
> President Obama says he is 'deeply concerned' by the news
> 
> The US and Britain have both made 'crisis calls' to President Putin to warn him to respect territorial boundaries
> 
> 
> (SNIPPED)


----------



## George Wallace

And now for the Big Guns:

http://www.interpretermag.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/140301-RUS-SPG-UKR.png


----------



## Journeyman

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Russia can pass laws legalizing their actions faster than the west can consult a thesaurus for new synonyms for “Concern.”





			
				S.M.A. said:
			
		

> President Obama says he is '_deeply_ concerned'  by the news


...or add adjectives   




			
				George Wallace said:
			
		

> And now for the Big Guns:
> http://www.interpretermag.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/140301-RUS-SPG-UKR.png


"Russian _'tanks'_ in Ukraine"     :facepalm:


----------



## Old Sweat

At the risk of demonstrating my blinding flash of the obvious, the occupation was clearly well planned and probably had been on the books for quite a while.


----------



## George Wallace

Journeyman said:
			
		

> ...or add adjectives
> 
> "Russian _'tanks'_ in Ukraine"     :facepalm:



Actually Artillery.  What level though, are being seen?  Bn? Regt? Div? Corps?  Identifiers as to what else is/will be showing up.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Old Sweat said:
			
		

> At the risk of demonstrating my blinding flash of the obvious, the occupation was clearly well planned and probably had been on the books for quite a while.


At least on the part of the Russians.  Oh .....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Journeyman said:
			
		

> ...or add adjectives


Like with us now....


> .... Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird, speaking from Kyiv Friday, said he was “*tremendously concerned*” with Russian troop movements inside Crimea, a predominantly ethnic-Russian region on the Black Sea coast ....


----------



## Edward Campbell

In this article, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Coppyright Act from _The New Republic_, Julia Ioffe, senior editor at _The New Republic_ and  previously, Moscow-based correspondent for _Foreign Policy_ and _The New Yorker_ offers some insights into the _whys_ of Russia's/Putin's actions:

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/116810/putin-declares-war-ukraine-why-and-what-next


> Putin's War in Crimea Could Soon Spread to Eastern Ukraine
> And nobody—not the U.S., not NATO—can stop him
> 
> Julia Ioffe
> 
> March 1, 2014
> 
> Vladimir Putin has asked the Federation Council—the upper chamber of Russia's dummy parliament—to authorize the use of force not just in Crimea, but "on Ukraine's territory until the socio-political situation is normalized." And though American spies and the Washington Post categorically ruled this out just days ago, this was not entirely unexpected. The situation is changing rapidly, but here are some initial thoughts.
> 
> *Why is Putin doing this?* Because he can. That's it, that's all you need to know. The situation in Kiev—in which people representing one half of the country (the Ukrainian-speaking west) took power to some extent at the expense of the Russian-speaking east—created the perfect opportunity for Moscow to divide and conquer. As soon as the revolution in Kiev happened, there was an unhappy rumbling in the Crimea, which has a large Russian population and is home to the Russian Black Sea Fleet. It was a small rumbling, but just big enough for Russia to exploit. And when such an opportunity presents itself, one would be foolish not to take it, especially if one's name is Vladimir Putin.
> 
> *We didn't think Putin would do this.* Why, exactly? This has often puzzled me about Western analysis of Russia. It is often predicated on wholly Western logic: surely, Russia won't invade [Georgia, Ukraine, whoever's next] because war is costly and the Russian economy isn't doing well and surely Putin doesn't want another hit to an already weak ruble; because Russia doesn't need to conquer Crimea if Crimea is going to secede on its own; Russia will not want to risk the geopolitical isolation, and "what's really in it for Russia?"—stop. Russia, or, more accurately, Putin, sees the world according to his own logic, and the logic goes like this: it is better to be feared than loved, it is better to be overly strong than to risk appearing weak, and Russia was, is, and will be an empire with an eternal appetite for expansion. And it will gather whatever spurious reasons it needs to insulate itself territorially from what it still perceives to be a large and growing NATO threat. Trying to harness Russia with our own logic just makes us miss Putin's next steps.
> 
> *Pessimism always wins.* One of the reasons I left my correspondent's post in Moscow was because Russia, despite all the foam on the water, is ultimately a very boring place. Unfortunately, all you really need to do to seem clairvoyant about the place is to be an utter pessimist. Will Vladimir Putin allow the ostensibly liberal Dmitry Medvedev to have a second term? Not a chance. There are protests in the streets of Moscow. Will Putin crackdown? Yup. There's rumbling in the Crimea, will Putin take advantage and take the Crimean peninsula? You betcha. And you know why being a pessimist is the best way to predict outcomes in Russia? Because Putin and those around him are, fundamentally, terminal pessimists. They truly believe that there is an American conspiracy afoot to topple Putin, that Russian liberals are traitors corrupted by and loyal to the West, they truly believe that, should free and fair elections be held in Russia, their countrymen would elect bloodthirsty fascists, rather than democratic liberals. To a large extent, Putin really believes that he is the one man standing between Russia and the yawning void. Putin's Kremlin is dark and scary, and, ultimately, very boring.
> 
> *Remember the U.N.?* Russia loves the U.N. Anytime the U.S. or Europe want to do anything on the world stage, Russia pipes up, demanding the issue be taken to the U.N. for the inevitable Russian veto. As Steven Lee Meyers, Moscow correspondent for the New York Times, pointed out, Russia does not seem to even remember that the institution exists today. Ditto for all that talk of "political solutions" and "diplomatic solutions" and "dialogue" we heard about in Syria. In other words, what we are seeing today—Russia's unilateral declaration of war—is the clearest statement yet of Russia's actual position: Putin empathizes with Bashar al-Assad as a fellow leader holding his country back from the brink and doing the dirty work that needs to be done to accomplish that, and the U.N. is just a convenient mechanism for keeping nay-sayers with large armies at bay.
> 
> As I wrote earlier this month, Russia, like the U.S., projects its own mindset onto the rest of the world. So when you hear Putin and his foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and the talking heads on Russia Today crowing about American cynicism and machinations, well, keep in mind whom they're really talking about.
> 
> *Speaking of America.* Today's meeting of the Federation Council was an incredible sight to behold. Man after Soviet-looking man mounted the podium to deliver a short diatribe against...you name it. Against Ukrainian fascism, against Swedes, and, most of all, against America. One would think that it wasn't the illegitimate government in Kiev occupying Russian Crimea—which, lordy lord, if we're going to get ethnic, let's recall who originally lived there—but the 82nd Airborne. The vice speaker of the Council even demanded recalling the Russian ambassador to Washington. America was amazingly, fantastically behind events in Kiev and proved utterly inept at influencing them, and yet none of that seemed to matter. America, the old foe, was everywhere, its fat capitalist fingers in every Slavic pie. Watching the Federation Council, where few of the speakers seemed to be under the age of 60, I couldn't escape the feeling that this was an opportunity for Russia not just to take back some land it's long considered its rightful own, but to settle all scores and to tie up all loose ends. You know, while they're at it.
> 
> *Double standards.* This is another howl you often hear rending the skies over Moscow: Western double standards. But let's get real for a second. We've spoken already about the U.N., but what about the holy Russian mantra of non-interference in a nation's internal affairs? When it comes to Syria, to take a most recent example, the fight between Assad and the rebels is something only the Syrians can sort out. Ditto every other country in the world—unless it's in Russia's backyard, where Russia still experiences phantom limb syndrome. The internal issues of former Soviet republics, you see, are not truly internal issues of sovereign nations. This is because, by Stalin's very conscious design and very deliberate border drawing and population movement, most former Soviet republics are ethnic hodgepodges. So Ukraine has a sizable Russian population. Ditto Estonia, ditto Georgia, ditto Kazakhstan. And, according to Putin's unspoken doctrine, anywhere Russian citizens are determined to be at risk, Mother Moscow can intercede with force on their behalf.
> 
> In other, blunter words, *Russian ethnicity and citizenship trump national sovereignty.* At the very least, they provide a convenient pretext for territorial expansion, as they did in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, where Russia was also ostensibly protecting Russian citizens—also newly minted for the occasion. Just this week, for instance, Russia introduced a law to make it easier for Ukrainians to get Russian citizenship—you know, to give Russia someone to protect.
> 
> *Russia manufactured this crisis to create a pretext for a land-grab.* There are now protests swinging Russian flags and hailing Russia's glory not just in Crimea but all over the Russian-speaking east of Ukraine. I was just in Donetsk, Yanukovich's hometown, on Monday. It was calm, calmer than calm. There were a couple dozen people guarding the Lenin statue in the center of the city from vandals, but that was it. A muckety-muck in the city's administration told me, "If they send new people in to replace us, we'll leave peacefully, we won't try to hang on." The same was the case in Simferopol, in Crimea. And then, out of nowhere, men with unmarked uniforms were taking over government buildings and airports, and huge demonstrations were pumping on town squares all over the regions. The Kremlin often refers to "a well-organized informational war" when their enemies broadcast something they don't like on repeat. And now, looking at the alarmist, blanket coverage on Russian television—now all loyal to the Kremlin—about fascists and radicals staging a coup in Kiev, it's hard to think of a better term. This was indeed a well-organized informational war.
> 
> *Neither America nor NATO can stop this.* They've shown they won't in Georgia, because nobody wants to start a war with nuclear-armed Russia, and rightly so. So while Washington and Brussels huff and puff about lines and sovereignty and diplomacy, Russia will do what it needs to do and there's not a thing we can do about it.
> 
> *Russia's next target is eastern Ukraine.* Because pessimism conquers all, don't bet that Putin is going to stop once he wrests Crimea from Kiev's orbit. Eastern, Russian-speaking Ukraine—and all its heavy industry—is looking pretty good right now. And if you're thinking "Why would Putin take eastern Ukraine?," well, you haven't been reading very carefully.




I see nothing, at all, with which I would take issue. Ms Ioffe is, I think, spot on.


----------



## tomahawk6

Its a fait acompli,the Russians now control the Crimea.I have stated from the beginning that I thought this was Putin's goal.If correct this should end the crisis.If he wants eastern Ukraine then things could get bad,very bad.There isn't much the US can do its could be Ukraine vs Russia using the Georgia model,where they took South Ossetia and called it good.


----------



## Edward Campbell

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> Its a fait acompli,the Russians now control the Crimea.I have stated from the beginning that I thought this was Putin's goal.If correct this should end the crisis.If he wants eastern Ukraine then things could get bad,very bad.There isn't much the US can do nor can/will Germanyits could be Ukraine vs Russia using the Georgia model,where they took South Ossetia and called it good.




Things will not go "bad." Russia will maintain its strategic position in the Black Sea region. Ukraine will be the loser. But Ukraine matters ... why?   :dunno:


----------



## tomahawk6

It matters to the Ukrainians I suspect.They forced out Putin's sock puppet and now Putin gets the Crimea.Putin is probably liking the situation.

http://www.armytimes.com/article/20140301/NEWS08/303010010/Russia-executes-de-facto-takeover-Crimea-region

Since no one in the White House has read the book Anticipating Surprise: Analysis of Strategic Warning by Cynthia Grabo,I highly suggest the book.Be more informed than Washington.
http://ni-u.edu/ni_press/pdf/Anticipating_Surprise_Analysis.pdf


----------



## OldSolduer

AirDet said:
			
		

> That's exactly what it says. Русские идут! The Russians are coming! Maybe I shouldn't admit to speaking Russian. It's friggin cold there this time of year.


----------



## Kirkhill

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Things will not go "bad." Russia will maintain its strategic position in the Black Sea region. Ukraine will be the loser. But Ukraine matters ... why?   :dunno:




Because......


Because somewhere along the line doesn't somebody have to say you can't do that?  What are you saying to the Bulgarians, Romanians, Latvians, Lithuanians and Estonians?

What are you saying to all those poor cynical jaded youngsters in Europe?

What are you saying to the Stans?

Just hang about ..... Uncle Vlad will be along shortly?  Might as well get used to Vlad's rules.  And forget all this talk about democracy, liberal, conservative or otherwise.

It's just not on.

We can't stop the Russians from securing the Crimea.  We can stand with Kiev and face Vlad down west of the Dniepr.  We might even be able to disuade him from intervening  in Kharkiv.


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> Because......
> 
> 
> Because somewhere along the line doesn't somebody have to say you can't do that?  What are you saying to the Bulgarians, Romanians, Latvians, Lithuanians and Estonians?
> 
> What are you saying to all those poor cynical jaded youngsters in Europe?
> 
> What are you saying to the Stans?
> 
> Just hang about ..... Uncle Vlad will be along shortly?  Might as well get used to Vlad's rules.  And forget all this talk about democracy, liberal, conservative or otherwise.
> 
> It's just not on.
> 
> We can't stop the Russians from securing the Crimea.  We can stand with Kiev and face Vlad down west of the Dniepr.  We might even be able to disuade him from intervening  in Kharkiv.



While I dont believe it will happen, I believe NATO are the ones who need to draw that line, Ukraine has apparently asked for NATO support which will be discussed at a NATO emergency summit tomorrow(according to the news story on CTV) I am sure both Poland, and Romania who share borders with Ukraine, more so Romania because of the black sea may push for action less they have the Russians on their border. Poland being traditionally anti-russian historically may lead that charge.


EDIT: in the interest of not double posting, here is CNN, and some one who just may of slipped up and find him self in Gulag soon.

http://edition.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/world/2014/03/01/nr-magnay-russian-soldiers-present.cnn.html


----------



## vonGarvin

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Who reads Russian?
> 
> Does this, reported as being graffiti on a wall in Simferopol, next to Crimean interior ministry, really say "The Russians Are Coming!"?


Yes it does.


----------



## vonGarvin

George Wallace said:
			
		

> Actually Artillery.  What level though, are being seen?  Bn? Regt? Div? Corps?  Identifiers as to what else is/will be showing up.


Those are exclusively regimental artillery, the 2S1.  18 per manoeuvre regiment


----------



## Journeyman

George Wallace said:
			
		

> Actually Artillery.  What level though, are being seen?  Bn? Regt? Div? Corps?  Identifiers as to what else is/will be showing up.


Come on George, don't leave people hanging -- you love this stuff.  They're obviously 2S1s, rather than 2S3, 2S5!!, or 2S9!s .......so what does that tell us?   ;D



[Edit: posted before I read Technoviking's post.  The question, other than dismissing it as 'merely Regimental' stands though]


----------



## tomahawk6

Technoviking said:
			
		

> Those are exclusively regimental artillery, the 2S1.  18 per manoeuvre regiment



The 2S31's shown in pictures are from the 810 Naval Infantry Brigade's 1613 FA battery.


----------



## upandatom

Videos of some super low flying helos as well. 

I have a feeling this is going to get bad. Russia and the US have been on edge since the start of Syria. 

Now that the Olympics are over, i wouldn't be surprised if we see major troop movements/shifting around of US assets in the east especially after Russia moves into Ukraine.


----------



## tomahawk6

The President seems disengaged from this crisis,as he skipped a national security meeting.


----------



## MilEME09

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> The President seems disengaged from this crisis,as he skipped a national security meeting.



I would say most leaders outside of eastern Europe are disengaged, unfortunately I dont think any major group of countries will take a serious stand. Russia says its protecting Ethnic Russians, well I'd make the case after watching some video that its the Ethnic Ukrainians that actually need protecting. If no stand is taken, some other former soviet republic will be next, We already had Georgia, now Ukraine, where will the world draw the line? Estonia? Belarus?


----------



## vonGarvin

Journeyman said:
			
		

> Come on George, don't leave people hanging -- you love this stuff.  They're obviously 2S1s, rather than 2S3, 2S5!!, or 2S9!s .......so what does that tell us?   ;D
> 
> 
> 
> [Edit: posted before I read Technoviking's post.  The question, other than dismissing it as 'merely Regimental' stands though]


I only meant that in regiments are the only place you find these. Of course I didn't mention the employment,  normally at the battalion level, with the regiment heavily augmented with even more  and bigger artillery.


----------



## Journeyman

You_ know _ I was only trying to get George pumped.....


----------



## muskrat89

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-01/invasion-so-far-visual-summary-russian-forces-and-movements?fb_action_ids=10152314358218343&fb_action_types=og.likes&fb_source=aggregation&fb_aggregation_id=288381481237582


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some tidbits from Russian media ....


> President Vladimir Putin has not yet made any decision on the use of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Vesti v Subbotu television programme on Saturday, March 1.
> 
> “Now that the Federation Council [upper house of parliament] adopted the relevant decision, the president has received the full array of means needed for settling the situation both in terms of using troops and in terms of making a decision on the head of our diplomatic mission in the United States,” Peskov said.
> 
> But “the president has not yet made either decision. He will make these decisions depending on how the situation evolves. “We would like to hope that the situation will not develop the way it has been developing up to date - escalation and threat to the Russian-speaking population in Crimea,” the spokesperson said.
> 
> Earlier in the day, the Federation Council gave the green light to the use of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine pending normalisation of the situation in that neighbouring country.
> 
> The MPs voted by show of hands and adopted the decision unanimously.
> 
> Putin submitted a letter to the Federation Council “in connection with the extraordinary situation in Ukraine, the threat to the lives of citizens of the Russian Federation, our compatriots, the personnel of the military contingent of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation deployed in the territory of Ukraine (Autonomous Republic of Crimea) in accordance with an international treaty, and pursuant to Article 102-1(d) of the Constitution of the Russian Federation.”
> 
> The letter followed the Federation Council’s appeal to Putin to take “exhaustive measures” to protect Russians in Ukraine ....


ITAR-TASS, 1 Mar 14

A bit of Putin's letter ....


> .... “In connection with the extraordinary situation in Ukraine, the threat to the lives of citizens of the Russian Federation, our compatriots, the personnel of the military contingent of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation deployed in the territory of Ukraine (Autonomous Republic of Crimea) in accordance with an international treaty, and pursuant to Article 102-1(d) of the Constitution of the Russian Federation, I hereby submit to the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation a letter on the use of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the territory of Ukraine pending normalisation of the public and political situation in that country,” the presidential press service said ....



Russian politician:  it's for their own good!


> The decision adopted on Saturday, March 1, by the Federation Council, upper house of the Russian parliament, which allows the president to send troops to Crimea, an autonomy within neighbouring Ukraine, aims to protect life and security, Irina Yarovaya, chair of the Security and Anti-Corruption Committee in the State Duma (lower house of parliament), said.
> 
> “Terrorism is the most dangerous crime around the world. But it is fascism and terrorism that have proclaimed their power in Ukraine and pose a real threat to the life and security of Russian citizens living in Ukraine and undoubtedly to the brotherly people of Ukraine,” she said ....


----------



## CougarKing

The Ukrainian Navy's flagship just defected to the Russian side/deposed President Yanukovich's cause...

I wonder how many of the 27 or so of the other active Ukrainian warships have defected as well. They do share a homeport with Russia's Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol.



> *Ukraine Navy flagship takes Russia’s side – report*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine’s Navy flagship, the Hetman Sahaidachny frigate, has reportedly refused to follow orders from Kiev, and come over to Russia’s side and is returning home after taking part in NATO operation in the Gulf of Aden flying the Russian naval flag.
> 
> Full Story:  http://rt.com/news/ukraine-navy-flaghsip-protest-389/


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, this from Canada's PM following a meeting with some of his Cabinet members (highlights mine) ....


> In response to the very serious developments today, Prime Minister Stephen Harper convened a meeting of Cabinet Ministers this afternoon, and spoke with President Obama, to discuss the situation in Ukraine. After the meeting, Prime Minister Harper issued the following statement:
> 
> “We join our allies in condemning in the strongest terms President Putin’s military intervention in Ukraine. These actions are a clear violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. They are also in violation of Russia’s obligations under international law.
> 
> “Canada recognizes the legitimacy of the Government of Ukraine. Ukraine’s sovereign territory must be respected and the Ukrainian people must be free to determine their own future.  We call on President Putin to immediately withdraw his forces to their bases and refrain from further provocative and dangerous actions.
> 
> “*Canada has suspended its engagement in preparations for the G-8 Summit*, currently planned for Sochi, and *the Canadian Ambassador in Moscow is being recalled for consultations*. Canada supports the immediate deployment of international monitors from the United Nations and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to Ukraine.  We are also engaged in discussions aimed at developing a financial aid package for Ukraine.
> 
> “We will continue to cooperate closely with our G-7 partners and other allies. *Should President Putin continue on this course of action, it will lead to ongoing negative consequences for our bilateral relationship*.”


Oooooohhhh ....


----------



## slayer/raptor

Above post didn't work out like I wanted it to.

But a reply to Journeyman's post:

behind the BnAG, the BAG and DAG are never too far...


----------



## CougarKing

Events are moving so fast...now pro-Russia sympathizers in other parts of Eastern Ukraine such as Kharkiv are taking to streets waving Russian flags. Perhaps it's only a matter of time before Russian armoured columns cross the border and begin their race for the Dnepr River?

Video: Russian flag raised over Kharkiv


----------



## The Bread Guy

slayer/raptor said:
			
		

> Above post didn't work out like I wanted it to.
> 
> But a reply to Journeyman's post:
> 
> behind the BnAG, the BAG and DAG are never too far...


Fixed....


----------



## OldSolduer

upandatom said:
			
		

> Videos of some super low flying helos as well.
> 
> I have a feeling this is going to get bad. Russia and the US have been on edge since the start of Syria.
> 
> Now that the Olympics are over, i wouldn't be surprised if we see major troop movements/shifting around of US assets in the east especially after Russia moves into Ukraine.



I wouldn't be surprised if we all rolled over  and went back to sleep.

This will come to nothing. Russia will do what it wants, NATO, the UN and the USA will send a letter....and if that doesn't work they will send a STRONGLY worded letter.


----------



## Edward Campbell

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Meanwhile, this from Canada's PM following a meeting with some of his Cabinet members (highlights mine)
> 
> 
> 
> ...
> “Canada has suspended its engagement in preparations for the G-8 Summit, currently planned for Sochi, and the Canadian Ambassador in Moscow is being recalled for consultations. Canada supports the immediate deployment of international monitors from the United Nations and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to Ukraine.  We are also engaged in discussions aimed at developing a financial aid package for Ukraine.
> 
> “We will continue to cooperate closely with our G-7 partners and other allies. Should President Putin continue on this course of action, it will lead to ongoing negative consequences for our bilateral relationship.”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ....Oooooohhhh ....
Click to expand...



Actually these are both important _diplomatic_ actions and, in my opinion, both are good policy, too. It is time to bounce Putin/Russia from the G-8 ~ no matter what Washington (both Democrats and the GOP) says.


----------



## Bird_Gunner45

slayer/raptor said:
			
		

> Above post didn't work out like I wanted it to.
> 
> But a reply to Journeyman's post:
> 
> behind the BnAG, the BAG and DAG are never too far...



Their extensive use of air assets would also seem to align nicely with our decision to divest the Air Defence and subsequent attempts to refocus it on C-RAM.

One sign that has been missing has been a lack of movement forward of key GBAD systems the Russians possess- S-300, S-400, SA-11, etc.  I suspect that if we see these assets pushed into the Crimea it would be an indication that the Russians intend to stay and that they're preparing for the west and not Ukrainian forces. Mobile artillery plays well on TV, but the movement of high level AD would be a key indicator of any Russian intent as well.


----------



## Edward Campbell

There is a good report from Matthew Fisher, a journalist I trust, in today's _Ottawa Citizen_.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some of the latest from the UKR side:


> ....  Ukraine's security council ordered the general staff to immediately put all armed forces on highest alert, the council's secretary Andriy Parubiy announced.
> 
> The Defense Ministry was ordered to conduct a call-up of reserves - theoretically all men up to 40 in a country with universal male conscription, though Ukraine would struggle to find extra guns or uniforms for significant numbers of them.
> 
> "If President Putin wants to be the president who started the war between two neighboring and friendly countries, between Ukraine and Russia, so: he has reached this target within a few inches. We are on the brink of disaster," Yatseniuk said in televised remarks in English, appealing for Western support ....



This, from the UKR defence ministry info-machine:


> Some foreign media spread the message about the alleged abandonment of his Ukrainian military units in the Crimea.
> 
> Office of Press and Information of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine officially declares that the common information is not true and is a provocation.
> 
> There is absolutely untrue extended release information about the mass of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from military service.
> 
> The personnel stationed in the Crimea military units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, blocked by armed persons, keep quiet and trying through negotiations to prevent bloodshed, knowing full responsibility for their families and civilians.
> 
> Requirements to surrender the Armed Forces of Ukraine refused to comply.
> 
> Yes, Sevastopol Alexander Pokryshkin military tactical aviation brigade declared allegiance Military oath and refused to surrender their weapons at the request of armed men who seized the airfield Belbek (Sevastopol).
> 
> This morning, March 2, in the brigade was officially hoisted the National Flag of Ukraine, and soldiers said they remain loyal to the oath of allegiance to the Ukrainian people.
> 
> Despite the attempts of armed men to take control of the P. Nakhimov Academy of Naval Forces, senior military personnel of the school said they did not surrender weapons and would not allow armed men to the territory of the Academy.
> 
> “We’re on OUR land and swore allegiance to the people of Ukraine,” — Ukrainian sailors stressed. —The military units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are controlled by Ukrainian soldiers."



And how things look, on the Russian side ....









.... and the Ukrainian side:


----------



## George Wallace

Journeyman said:
			
		

> You_ know _ I was only trying to get George pumped.....



Sorry JM.  I was out of the room...  ;D

Not many picked up on the nuances, so it was great that you addressed some of them.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Jim Seggie said:
			
		

> I wouldn't be surprised if we all rolled over  and went back to sleep.
> 
> This will come to nothing. Russia will do what it wants, NATO, the UN and the USA will send a letter....and if that doesn't work they will send a STRONGLY worded letter.



The big question is not what the U.S,/EU/NATO do, its what the Ukrainians are going to do? Are they going to roll over and let the Russians trample all over them or do they fight back??


----------



## AirDet

Jim Seggie said:
			
		

> I wouldn't be surprised if we all rolled over  and went back to sleep.
> 
> This will come to nothing. Russia will do what it wants, NATO, the UN and the USA will send a letter....and if that doesn't work they will send a STRONGLY worded letter.



I'm waiting for the ultimate recourse; the issue of a Mk1 bitchslap.  :nod:

Seriously there isn't much that can be done. The UN Security council is out because Russia holds a veto. 

It is their backyard so to speak.  Maybe we're coming at this all wrong. Maybe there's another way without escalating things. What does Russia and the Ukraine really want? Peace, security, financial security, etc?


----------



## Old Sweat

In my opinion, Putin expected this kind of reaction from the West and doesn't care all that much. Recalled ambassadors, strong letters, cancelled attendance at meetings and the rest count for squat against getting firm control of a warm weather, year round naval base. Our leaders all know this and are taking the SOP obligatory actions in the diplomatic equivalent of controlled road rage.


----------



## George Wallace

Retired AF Guy said:
			
		

> The big question is not what the U.S,/EU/NATO do, its what the Ukrainians are going to do? Are they going to roll over and let the Russians trample all over them or do they fight back??



We still have at least two weeks before Putin really makes any move that could seriously create the scenarios that everyone are currently discussing.  The Para Olympics are a week away in Sochi, and any actions on the part of the Russians in the Crimea or Ukraine prior to their successful completion could jeopardize Putin and Russia's position on the world stage.  It is all about saving face.  What we are seeing now is a 'show of force' to intimidate.  I doubt there will be any 'use of force' until after the Para Olympics are over.  By then, with all the discussions on the various diplomatic levels, saner minds may prevail.


----------



## MilEME09

Latest news being reported by CTV is Ukraine has called up all Reserves, giving them a boost of about 1 million extra man power. That would allow Ukraine to in theory win the numbers game against the western and southern military districts of Russia who I assume would be leading the charge. Problem is much of Ukraine's equipment is in storage, in various states of condition I imagine, including over 1000 T-72's, and dozens of fighter jets. With the Reserves coming up I imagine they may be starting to pull that equipment out and dust it off but can they get it ready in time?


----------



## GAP

If the Crimea really wants to split from the Ukraine, then simply hold a referendum ......if the majority want to go back to Russia, let them.....

Is it any different than Quebec separating.....vote, negotiate, based on the vote result, voila!!

 :2c:


----------



## Edward Campbell

AirDet said:
			
		

> I'm waiting for the ultimate recourse; the issue of a Mk1 bitchslap.  :nod:
> 
> Seriously there isn't much that can be done. The UN Security council is out because Russia holds a veto.
> 
> It is their backyard so to speak.  Maybe we're coming at this all wrong. Maybe there's another way without escalating things. What does Russia and the Ukraine really want? Peace, security, financial security, etc?




I think you are seeing the "end game."

Russia gets ~ I think because it *must have* ~ its secure Black Sea port in Crimea. It also gets a "buffer state" in South-Eastern Ukraine, in the form of a new, separate country.

Ukraine (minus) get Europe: aid and money and EU membership, and, and, and ...

Russia gets some _slaps_, it is booted out of the G-8, for example, but there is nothing that conflicts with Putin's aims.


----------



## Journeyman

From a Russian perspective, their actions are perfectly rational.

The legally-elected President is deposed, your ethnic brethren in the south are threatened, your major warm-water port is at risk....

The question is, how much further do they go?  Hold at Crimea, ensure a land corridor long the Azov coast or further inland, secure to the Dnieper?  Will these options be through direct annexation to Russia or through negotiations with a separated 'Crimean Rus'?

Going back to the 'fig leaf' post by ER Campbell, Putin is going through the internationally-recognized motions, but regardless he is doing what is deemed best for 'the clan' -- the ethnic Russians in Ukraine.



Edit: Good timing.  "The common measure of brilliance lay in how much someone agrees with you"   ;D


----------



## AirDet

GAP said:
			
		

> If the Crimea really wants to split from the Ukraine, then simply hold a referendum ......if the majority want to go back to Russia, let them.....
> 
> Is it any different than Quebec separating.....vote, negotiate, based on the vote result, voila!!
> 
> :2c:



Like George said, "saner minds may prevail". I think if the Ukraine takes the time to think this thru they will come to the same conclusion. They are already behind the eight ball with the Russians already holding key military positions and support from the people in the Crimea.

This is hard for me to say being an ex-grunt but, it's time for the diplomats to earn their pay.


----------



## AirDet

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> I think you are seeing the "end game."
> 
> Russia gets ~ I think because it *must have* ~ its secure Black Sea port in Crimea. It also gets a "buffer state" in South-Eastern Ukraine, in the form of a new, separate country.
> 
> Ukraine (minus) get Europe: aid and money and EU membership, and, and, and ...
> 
> Russia gets some _slaps_, it is booted out of the G-8, for example, but there is nothing that conflicts with Putin's aims.



Agreed. So long as both sides remain professional and restrained, this will be but a minor post cold war border adjustment.


----------



## George Wallace

AirDet said:
			
		

> Seriously there isn't much that can be done. The UN Security council is out because Russia holds a veto.



Not that obvious a 'conflict of interest' is it.


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

GAP said:
			
		

> If the Crimea really wants to split from the Ukraine, then simply hold a referendum ......if the majority want to go back to Russia, let them.....
> 
> Is it any different than Quebec separating.....vote, negotiate, based on the vote result, voila!!
> 
> :2c:



Not quite that simple...........like I tell the few true separatists I know, " You can separate all you want, but the land stays with us".


----------



## The Bread Guy

AirDet said:
			
		

> Agreed. So long as both sides remain professional and restrained, this will be but *a minor post cold war border adjustment*.


You sure you don't work for Public Affairs?  >


----------



## daftandbarmy

Sounds like history is repeating itself in many ways and, as George Santayana once said "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it":

The Crimean War

According to Shepard Clough, professor of history at Columbia University, the war:
"was not the result of a calculated plan, nor even of hasty last-minute decisions made under stress. It was the consequence of more than two years of fatal blundering in slow-motion by inept statesmen who had months to reflect upon the actions they took.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_War


----------



## tomahawk6

Bird_Gunner45 said:
			
		

> Their extensive use of air assets would also seem to align nicely with our decision to divest the Air Defence and subsequent attempts to refocus it on C-RAM.
> 
> One sign that has been missing has been a lack of movement forward of key GBAD systems the Russians possess- S-300, S-400, SA-11, etc.  I suspect that if we see these assets pushed into the Crimea it would be an indication that the Russians intend to stay and that they're preparing for the west and not Ukrainian forces. Mobile artillery plays well on TV, but the movement of high level AD would be a key indicator of any Russian intent as well.



Except that with long range systems they can cover Ukraine's air space from Russia.


----------



## Lightguns

The Uks were foolish to get rid of the nucs in exchange for a treaty to protect their borders.  They should have asked the Poles about the West and their border protection treaties!  Crimea is now Russian, although a lot of Ukrainians will have to die for that fact yet.  USA and EU will sit on their hands with every UN resolution voted by the Occupier.  Ahhh, cold war how I have missed you.


----------



## tomahawk6

The so called Budapest Memorandum guaranteeing Ukraine's sovereignty has been violated by all sides.

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2014/03/does_the_1994_budapest_memorandum_obligate_the_us_to_intervene_in_ukraine.html

"According to the agreement, the US, UK and Russia all agreed to protect the sovereignty and “territorial agreement” of Ukraine".

"According to the agreement, the US, UK and Russia all agreed to protect the sovereignty and “territorial agreement” of Ukraine, meaning any Russian support for an attempt to declare Crimean independence would be in violation of their international obligations.

The three powers committed to “respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine” and “refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine”.

Significantly, the wording suggests Russia’s insistence that Ukraine forgo an EU trade deal may have already breached the terms of the agreement."


----------



## Robert0288

> *New head of Ukraine's navy 'defects' in Crimea*
> 2 Mar 2014 12:49 EST
> source: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26410431
> _
> The newly appointed head of Ukraine's navy has sworn allegiance to the Crimea region, in the presence of its unrecognised pro-Russian leader.
> Rear Admiral Denis Berezovsky was only made head of the navy on Saturday, as the government in Kiev reacted to the threat of Russian invasion......_






> *Ukrainian Navy flagship takes Russia’s side – report*
> 01 March 2014 21:11 EST
> source: http://rt.com/news/ukraine-navy-flaghsip-protest-389/
> 
> _Ukraine’s Navy flagship, the Hetman Sahaidachny frigate, has reportedly refused to follow orders from Kiev, and come over to Russia’s side and is returning home after taking part in NATO operation in the Gulf of Aden flying the Russian naval flag.
> 
> There has been conflicting information on where exactly the vessel is, but a Russian senator has confirmed to Izvestia daily that the frigate defected to the Russian side.
> 
> “Ukraine’s Navy flagship the Hetman Sahaidachny has come over to our side today. It has hung out the St Andrew’s flag,” Senator Igor Morozov, a member of the committee on the international affairs, told Izvestia daily. _




Also the governments of Lithuania, Poland and Latvia have called for a NATO meeting under article 4.


----------



## Kirkhill

I am still of the belief that we (NATO) should be pushing back.  And one way to push back is to move troops forward into countries neighbouring Ukraine that are willing to host them.

This isn't Georgia.  It certainly isn't Afghanistan. NATO has good lines of communication right up to, and beyond, Ukraine's western border.  Georgia was isolated.  Ukraine isn't.

Escalation is being discussed as a bad thing here.  I believe a little escalation is called for.  And there is room for a considerable amount of escalation before triggering a force-on-force event.

The countries most concerned by the latest turn of events are:

Estonia,
Latvia,
Lithuania,
Poland,
Hungary
Czechs (not sure about the Slovaks)
Romania
Bulgaria.

Why do you suppose those are the same countries that offered troops both in Iraq and Afghanistan?  Perhaps to buy some street-creds?  Define whose side they were on?   Learn a bit about how NATO does business?  Make friends?

If even one or two of those countries were to receive even small contingents of Western troops on training exercises it would match Putin's moves on Russian soil.

Do I want WW3?  H**L no!

But:



> It is ill that men should kill one another in seditions, tumults and wars; but it is worse to bring nations to such misery, weakness and baseness
> as to have neither strength nor courage to contend for anything; to have nothing left worth defending and to give the name of peace to desolation.
> Algernon Sidney in Discourses Concerning Government, (1698)



Your Humble Servant, Sirs.


----------



## Robert0288

Everything I've been reading in the Russian news papers and journals suggests that the west will talk big, might pull out of the G8, and the very most some economic sanctions.  I agree with Kirkhill, a little escalation is called for.  There is a good reason why the rest of the eastern european countries are starting to shit bricks.  They all remember being occupied for a couple generations.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> I am still of the belief that we (NATO) should be pushing back.  And one way to push back is to move troops forward into countries neighbouring Ukraine that are willing to host them.
> 
> This isn't Georgia.  It certainly isn't Afghanistan. NATO has good lines of communication right up to, and beyond, Ukraine's western border.  Georgia was isolated.  Ukraine isn't.
> 
> Escalation is being discussed as a bad thing here.  I believe a little escalation is called for.  And there is room for a considerable amount of escalation before triggering a force-on-force event.
> 
> The countries most concerned by the latest turn of events are:
> 
> Estonia,
> Latvia,
> Lithuania,
> Poland,
> Hungary
> Czechs (not sure about the Slovaks)
> Romania
> Bulgaria.
> 
> Why do you suppose those are the same countries that offered troops both in Iraq and Afghanistan?  Perhaps to buy some street-creds?  Define whose side they were on?   Learn a bit about how NATO does business?  Make friends?
> 
> If even one or two of those countries were to receive even small contingents of Western troops on training exercises it would match Putin's moves on Russian soil.
> 
> Do I want WW3?  H**L no!
> 
> But:
> 
> Your Humble Servant, Sirs.



Glass half full? 

We have a training focus again and we can dust off the Cold War doctrine.


----------



## Bird_Gunner45

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> Except that with long range systems they can cover Ukraine's air space from Russia.



True, but the Crimea offers better Long Range positions owing to it's strategic position on the Black Sea.  Now the Russians can, in theory, intercept US/NATO aircraft and Ballistic Missiles from Turkey, the middle east and eastern Europe 200km sooner than they used to be able to.  With positions in Sevastopol Russian AD could identify and engage NATO aircraft as far away as S Turkey, providing far better depth.  Finally, with the positions in the S they can engage threats from the S without notifying their neighbours or violating foreign airspace (whether they would have or not) in defence of their black sea fleet and Southern approaches.

The movement of S-400 particularly could represent the Russian version of the US anti ballistic missile shield.  If they move high level systems in and Flanker/Pak-FA aircraft into the area it is a message to NATO and the US, not the Ukraine.


----------



## Bird_Gunner45

daftandbarmy said:
			
		

> Glass half full?
> 
> We have a training focus again and we can dust off the Cold War doctrine.



Without a legitimate GBAD capability any Canadian involvement against a first rate military such as Russia would be risky and potentially come with high casualties (unless the US lend us some Air Defence).


----------



## Old Sweat

We went from 1951 to 1975 without any AD at all and then took Blowpipe into service. ADATS came along in the late 80s. Ignorance on our part is indeed bliss.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Bird_Gunner45 said:
			
		

> Without a legitimate GBAD capability any Canadian involvement against a first rate military such as Russia would be risky and potentially come with high casualties (unless the US lend us some Air Defence).



Well, unfortunately, I'd argue that it's been at least 30 years since we even practised with all those assets at the right level i.e., armoured division and higher, so it's a bit of a moot point anyway AFAIC.


----------



## Old Sweat

The following report by the CP of a statement by Minister of Foreign Affairs John Baird is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act:


Baird rules out military response to Soviet-style intervention in Ukraine

By Joan Bryden — CP — Mar 2 2014

OTTAWA - Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird is ruling out western military intervention to force Russia to pull its troops out of Ukraine.

But he's not ruling out further sanctions, including expelling Russia's ambassador to Canada.

"I don't think there's anyone talking about western military intervention, none of our friends or allies," Baird said Sunday in an interview with Global's West Block.

"What we are doing is working together to say in no uncertain terms that this is completely unacceptable and to condemn (it) in the strongest language possible."

Baird's own language was harsh. He called the invasion of Russian troops "old Soviet-style" aggression and dismissed Russian arguments that it needs to protect its Black Sea naval fleet, which is based in Sevastopol on Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula, and the Russian-speaking population in that region.

"There is absolutely no justification whatsoever," Baird said.

"The claims that President (Vladimir) Putin puts forward are absurd and ridiculous. He has no right to invade another country, a neighbouring country that's struggling for freedom and democracy.

"The excuses and the rhetoric that's coming out of Moscow are unacceptable. No one is buying them in the western world and they make President Putin look ridiculous."

On Saturday, Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced that Canada is withdrawing its ambassador from Russia and will boycott preparatory meetings of ministers and officials for the G8 summit, which is supposed to be held in June in Sochi, where the Winter Olympic games just ended.

"Next month there's a G8 foreign ministers' meeting and if (Putin) continues with this provocative action, there's certainly no way I or Canada would want to have anything to do with Russian world leadership," Baird said.

Whether the G8 leaders' summit itself goes ahead will be up to Putin, he added, stressing that Russia must be made to realize that its actions "will have a major effect on Russia's relationship, not just with Canada but the entire free and democratic world."

Baird was returning Saturday from Kyiv, where he led a Canadian government delegation to show support for Ukraine's new pro-western government.

In his absence, he said his deputy minister called in Russia's ambassador to Canada, Georgiy Mamedov, and reamed him out "in the strongest terms certainly in my time at Foreign Affairs."

He did not rule out expelling the ambassador.

"We'll obviously be revisiting this on an hour by hour basis," he said, adding that Canada wants to act "in unison" with its allies.

At a later news conference in Toronto, Baird did not rule out further sanctions, including freezing Russian assets, trade and investment penalties and a ban on visas.

"It's certainly something we'll consider in the next few days."

However, Baird significantly turned down the volume on his own rhetoric, adopting a more diplomatic tone during the news conference. For instance, rather than repeat his assertion that Putin's explanations for the invasion are absurd and ridiculous, he said: "We just disagree in the strongest of terms with the justifications, with the so-called justifications that are being put forward."

He stressed the need "to be careful that we take measured responses that actually will support the Ukrainian people" and insisted "our first goal is to de-escalate the situation."

On Saturday, Harper spoke with U.S. President Barack Obama and the two agreed to "co-ordinate closely" their response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Harper has also spoken to German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister David Cameron.

As well, Harper spoke Saturday with NDP Leader Tom Mulcair.

Harper said Canada supports the United Nations sending international monitors to Ukraine and is involved in multilateral talks to put together a financial aid package for Ukraine, which is on the brink of defaulting on its sovereign debt.

Employment Minister Jason Kenney told CTV's Question Period on Sunday that Canada has indicated "support in principle" for an International Monetary Fund aid package. He said "basic economic stability for Ukraine at this sensitive moment is critically important."

Despite the sanctions, Canada does not intend to withdraw its athletes from the Paralympics, set for March 7-16 in Sochi.

"We don't want the athletes to pay the price for this," Baird said.

However, he said no government representative will attend the games "to somehow glorify Russia's time in the spotlight."


----------



## Robert0288

Sounds like the Russian papers called it.  They even toned down some of the harsh language.


----------



## MilEME09

And as suspected NATO comes out swinging with a strongly worded press release but no action. Mean while Russia continues it's take over. Congrats NATO you are completely useless as a organization


----------



## devil39

NATO is the new UN.  

My latest experiences with NATO remind me of my UN experiences in the early '90s.  15 percent of staff officers doing 85 percent of the work....etc.


----------



## George Wallace

Bird_Gunner45 said:
			
		

> True, but the Crimea offers better Long Range positions owing to it's strategic position on the Black Sea.  Now the Russians can, in theory, intercept US/NATO aircraft and Ballistic Missiles from Turkey, the middle east and eastern Europe 200km sooner than they used to be able to.  With positions in Sevastopol Russian AD could identify and engage NATO aircraft as far away as S Turkey, providing far better depth.  Finally, with the positions in the S they can engage threats from the S without notifying their neighbours or violating foreign airspace (whether they would have or not) in defence of their black sea fleet and Southern approaches.
> 
> The movement of S-400 particularly could represent the Russian version of the US anti ballistic missile shield.  If they move high level systems in and Flanker/Pak-FA aircraft into the area it is a message to NATO and the US, not the Ukraine.



Let's not forget that the Black Sea Fleet has its own integral AD assets.


----------



## KerryBlue

Here's the cut and paste statement most world governments will make: 
"Both myself [insert head of state here] and the government of [insert country here] strongly condemn Russia's military actions against Ukraine, violating both their sovereignty and their right to a peaceful, political resolution to the turmoil that is going on within their country. Russia's aggression towards Ukraine will severely harm [insert country here]'s diplomatic ties with Russia, and further repercussions are being debated by my council/cabinet. We would like to urge Russia to immediately end all military campaigns within Ukraine and withdraw their troops immediately. At this time [insert country here] stands behind the people of Ukraine, because we are all Ukrainians."

Within two weeks a new conflict will occur and everyone will forget about Crimea.


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:
			
		

> Glass half full?
> 
> We have a training focus again and we can dust off the Cold War doctrine.



Maybe you can justify advancing the ALAAWS project to the head of the procurement list?  1 or even 2 per 6 man section carried by  LAVs with a 3 man crews to form an Anti-Armour Battle Group - as a show of solidarity with the Poles.


----------



## tomahawk6

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> I am still of the belief that we (NATO) should be pushing back.  And one way to push back is to move troops forward into countries neighbouring Ukraine that are willing to host them.
> 
> This isn't Georgia.  It certainly isn't Afghanistan. NATO has good lines of communication right up to, and beyond, Ukraine's western border.  Georgia was isolated.  Ukraine isn't.
> 
> Escalation is being discussed as a bad thing here.  I believe a little escalation is called for.  And there is room for a considerable amount of escalation before triggering a force-on-force event.
> 
> The countries most concerned by the latest turn of events are:
> 
> Estonia,
> Latvia,
> Lithuania,
> Poland,
> Hungary
> Czechs (not sure about the Slovaks)
> Romania
> Bulgaria.
> 
> Why do you suppose those are the same countries that offered troops both in Iraq and Afghanistan?  Perhaps to buy some street-creds?  Define whose side they were on?   Learn a bit about how NATO does business?  Make friends?
> 
> If even one or two of those countries were to receive even small contingents of Western troops on training exercises it would match Putin's moves on Russian soil.
> 
> Do I want WW3?  H**L no!
> 
> But:
> 
> Your Humble Servant, Sirs.



The US but ISAF as well need to withdraw from Afghanistan using Russian bases as well as to sustain the force until withdrawal begins.If Putin closes off our supply line that leaves us with a vulnerable supply route in Pakistan.Putin has us by the short hairs so to speak.


----------



## Lightguns

For sure, he has.  He has out flanked the Western World.  Thing is, it was easy, we were all busy watching the Olympics.  The only reason he will not take all the Ukraine is that he can have a lot more fun sucking 2 billion dollars in gas bills out of them by: gas on, gas off; gas on, gas off.  When he is done the Ukraine will beg him to be a Russia SSR again.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> I am still of the belief that we (NATO) should be pushing back.  And one way to push back is to move troops forward into countries neighbouring Ukraine that are willing to host them.
> 
> This isn't Georgia.  It certainly isn't Afghanistan. NATO has good lines of communication right up to, and beyond, Ukraine's western border.  Georgia was isolated.  Ukraine isn't.
> 
> Escalation is being discussed as a bad thing here.  I believe a little escalation is called for.  And there is room for a considerable amount of escalation before triggering a force-on-force event.
> 
> The countries most concerned by the latest turn of events are:
> 
> Estonia,
> Latvia,
> Lithuania,
> Poland,
> Hungary
> Czechs (not sure about the Slovaks)
> Romania
> Bulgaria.
> 
> Why do you suppose those are the same countries that offered troops both in Iraq and Afghanistan?  Perhaps to buy some street-creds?  Define whose side they were on?   Learn a bit about how NATO does business?  Make friends?
> 
> If even one or two of those countries were to receive even small contingents of Western troops on training exercises it would match Putin's moves on Russian soil.
> 
> Do I want WW3?  H**L no!
> 
> But:
> 
> Your Humble Servant, Sirs.




I'm reminded of Robert Bolt's fine play, _A man for all seasons_. In the scene covering the trial of Sir Thomas More Sir Richard Rich gives (perjured?) testimony which is sufficient to condemn More. More has only one question: 

(More)        "There is one question I would like to ask the witness. That's a chain of office you're wearing. May I see it? (looking) The Red Dragon. What's this?"
(Cromwell) "Sir Richard is appointed the Attorney General for Wales."
(More)        "For Wales. Why Richard, it profits a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world. *But for Wales?"*

I think there are reasons to risk and, if need be, face WW3, but my question is: *"But for Ukraine?"*


----------



## CougarKing

Slight off-topic:

This Russian invasion of Crimea, more 2 decades after the Ukraine first left the USSR in the 1990s, got me thinking what would happen if Premier Marois got her wish and Quebec secedes.

Then a few years later, things are so bad economically under their government that many Quebecers (even the most ardent PQ supporters) want Canada to take them back.

Many Ukrainians of Russian descent in Crimea and the rest of Eastern Ukraine certainly wanted Russia want to take them back, reportedly:



> *Many Ukrainians Want Russia To Invade*
> Pro-Russian citizens genuinely fear the new Ukrainian government is fascistic and will persecute them
> 
> To many in Ukraine, a full-scale Russian military invasion would feel like a liberation. On Saturday, across the country’s eastern and southern provinces, hundreds of thousands of people gathered to welcome the Kremlin’s talk of protecting pro-Russian Ukrainians against the revolution that brought a new government to power last week. So far, that protection has come in the form of Russian military control of the southern region of Crimea, but on Saturday, Russian President Vladimir Putin got parliamentary approval for a broad military intervention in Ukraine. As that news spread, locals in at least four major cities in the east of Ukraine climbed onto the roofs of government buildings and replaced the Ukrainian flag with the Russian tricolor.
> 
> Read more: Many Ukrainians Want Russia To Invade | TIME.com http://world.time.com/2014/03/01/many-ukrainians-want-russia-to-invade/#ixzz2uoWJsOlm


----------



## pbi

Inky said:
			
		

> I'm sure a lot of people (me included) are seriously questioning the fact that Ukraine would be so valuable as to lead us into a diplomatic stand-off with the Russians. IS it really worth it? I feel like Russia has a lot more to gain from changing the situation than we have in maintaining the status Quo.





			
				E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> I think there are reasons to risk and, if need be, face WW3, but my question is: *"But for Ukraine?"*



Agree completely. This is a horrible, sad situation, and reminds us of Russia's real nature (after the recent Sochi distraction) but it isn't worth risking general war over. There are no immediate US or Canadian interests at risk. The Ukraine is Russia's strategic backyard, just as Mexico or Canada is that of the US. Moral and economic support, maybe. Going to war, or making threats about going to war, no.


----------



## Edward Campbell

According to today's media reports the US Government is making the right noises:

     "U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned Russia Sunday that it is in danger of expulsion from the G8 group of industrialized nations and could be hit with trade sanctions and asset freezes unless it withdraws its military forces to their bases.

     In a series of appearances on U.S. Sunday morning news shows, Kerry said the world’s leading industrialized nations are suspending plans for the upcoming G8 meeting in Sochi, Russia, in retaliation for Russia’s “incredible act of aggression”
     against the Ukraine."


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> And as suspected NATO comes out swinging with a strongly worded press release but no action. Mean while Russia continues it's take over. Congrats NATO you are completely useless as a organization


Meanwhile, Russia talks with various folks on the phone, sharing some messages (highlights mine) from their Info-machine ....


> Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with President of the United States Barack Obama on the American side’s initiative.
> 
> The two presidents discussed in detail various aspects of the extraordinary situation in Ukraine.
> 
> In reply to Mr Obama’s concern over the possibility of the use of Russian armed forces on the territory of Ukraine, *Vladimir Putin drew his attention to the provocative and criminal actions on the part of ultranationalists who are in fact being supported by the current authorities in Kiev.
> 
> The Russian President spoke of a real threat to the lives and health of Russian citizens and the many compatriots who are currently on Ukrainian territory. Vladimir Putin stressed that in case of any further spread of violence to Eastern Ukraine and Crimea, Russia retains the right to protect its interests and the Russian-speaking population of those areas*.





> Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to discuss the crisis in Ukraine.
> 
> Vladimir Putin noted that *in case of any escalation of violence against the Russian-speaking population of the eastern regions of Ukraine and Crimea, Russia would not be able to stay away and would resort to whatever measures are necessary in compliance with international law.
> 
> Both parties stressed the need to prevent further exacerbation of the crisis in Ukraine*.





> As per prior agreement, Vladimir Putin spoke by telephone with Federal Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel.
> 
> In response to Ms Merkel's concern regarding the developments in Crimea and Ukraine as a whole, *Vladimir Putin drew the Federal Chancellor's attention to the unrelenting threat of violence by ultra-nationalist forces, endangering the lives and legitimate interests of Russian citizens and the entire Russian-speaking population. It was stressed that the measures being taken by Russia correspond fully to the extraordinary current situation.*
> 
> Mr Putin and Ms Merkel agreed to continue consultations both in the bilateral format (through the two nations' Foreign Ministries) and multilaterally to promote the stabilization of the situation in Ukraine.





> Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with President of France Francois Hollande on the French side’s initiative.
> 
> At the request of Francois Hollande, Vladimir Putin shared his assessment of the situation in Ukraine, stressing that *there exists a real threat to the lives of Russian citizens and our compatriots*.
> 
> The two presidents exchanged views on possible ways of resolving the situation in Ukraine and agreed to continue contacts.


----------



## Nemo888

Probably feeling pretty stupid right about now for trading those nukes for a promise of international noninterference. How is that working out for ya Ukraine? 



			
				tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> The so called Budapest Memorandum guaranteeing Ukraine's sovereignty has been violated by all sides.
> 
> http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2014/03/does_the_1994_budapest_memorandum_obligate_the_us_to_intervene_in_ukraine.html
> 
> "According to the agreement, the US, UK and Russia all agreed to protect the sovereignty and “territorial agreement” of Ukraine".
> 
> "According to the agreement, the US, UK and Russia all agreed to protect the sovereignty and “territorial agreement” of Ukraine, meaning any Russian support for an attempt to declare Crimean independence would be in violation of their international obligations.
> 
> The three powers committed to “respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine” and “refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine”.
> 
> Significantly, the wording suggests Russia’s insistence that Ukraine forgo an EU trade deal may have already breached the terms of the agreement."


----------



## Kirkhill

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> I'm reminded of Robert Bolt's fine play, _A man for all seasons_. In the scene covering the trial of Sir Thomas More Sir Richard Rich gives (perjured?) testimony which is sufficient to condemn More. More has only one question:
> 
> (More)        "There is one question I would like to ask the witness. That's a chain of office you're wearing. May I see it? (looking) The Red Dragon. What's this?"
> (Cromwell) "Sir Richard is appointed the Attorney General for Wales."
> (More)        "For Wales. Why Richard, it profits a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world. *But for Wales?"*
> 
> I think there are reasons to risk and, if need be, face WW3, but my question is: *"But for Ukraine?"*




But Sir Richard sought personal aggrandizement in Wales. 

I would answer your question with another:  If not Ukraine then what?

We have spent a lot of time discussing cultural affinity in the past.  And I have voiced the opinion that the further from the dinner table the harder it is to find that affinity.

Perhaps my personal problem is that this British refugee in Canada, who married a French Canadian girl in Saskatchewan discovered that as a result he had a large number of Ukrainian in-laws and friends.  Both of 1905 and 1935 vintage.  We share dinner tables regularly.


----------



## Kirkhill

> a quarrel in a far away country between people of whom we know nothing.


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Meanwhile, Russia talks with various folks on the phone, sharing some messages (highlights mine) from their Info-machine ....
> 
> 
> 
> Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with President of the United States Barack Obama on the American side’s initiative.
> 
> The two presidents discussed in detail various aspects of the extraordinary situation in Ukraine.
> 
> In reply to Mr Obama’s concern over the possibility of the use of Russian armed forces on the territory of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin drew his attention to the provocative and criminal actions on the part of ultranationalists who are in fact being supported by the current authorities in Kiev.
> 
> The Russian President spoke of a real threat to the lives and health of Russian citizens and the many compatriots who are currently on Ukrainian territory. Vladimir Putin stressed that in case of any further spread of violence to Eastern Ukraine and Crimea, Russia retains the right to protect its interests and the Russian-speaking population of those areas.
Click to expand...


In comparison, here's the U.S. President's Info-machine's summary of the same call ....


> President Obama spoke for 90 minutes this afternoon with President Putin of Russia about the situation in Ukraine. President Obama expressed his deep concern over Russia’s clear violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity, which is a breach of international law, including Russia’s obligations under the UN Charter, and of its 1997 military basing agreement with Ukraine, and which is inconsistent with the 1994 Budapest Memorandum and the Helsinki Final Act. The United States condemns Russia’s military intervention into Ukrainian territory.
> 
> The United States calls on Russia to de-escalate tensions by withdrawing its forces back to bases in Crimea and to refrain from any interference elsewhere in Ukraine. We have consistently said that we recognize Russia’s deep historic and cultural ties to Ukraine and the need to protect the rights of ethnic Russian and minority populations within Ukraine.  The Ukrainian government has made clear its commitment to protect the rights of all Ukrainians and to abide by Ukraine’s international commitments, and we will continue to urge them to do so.
> 
> President Obama told President Putin that, if Russia has concerns about the treatment of ethnic Russian and minority populations in Ukraine, the appropriate way to address them is peacefully through direct engagement with the government of Ukraine and through the dispatch of international observers under the auspices of the United Nations Security Council or the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).  As a member of both organizations, Russia would be able to participate. President Obama urged an immediate effort to initiate a dialogue between Russia and the Ukrainian government, with international facilitation, as appropriate. The United States is prepared to participate.
> 
> President Obama made clear that Russia’s continued violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity would negatively impact Russia’s standing in the international community. In the coming hours and days, the United States will urgently consult with allies and partners in the UN Security Council, the North Atlantic Council, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, and with the signatories of the Budapest Memorandum. The United States will suspend upcoming participation in preparatory meetings for the G-8. Going forward, Russia’s continued violation of international law will lead to greater political and economic isolation.
> 
> The people of Ukraine have the right to determine their own future. President Obama has directed his Administration to continue working urgently with international partners to provide support for the Ukrainian government, including urgent technical and financial assistance. Going forward, we will continue consulting closely with allies and partners, the Ukrainian government and the International Monetary Fund, to provide the new government with significant assistance to secure financial stability, to support needed reforms, to allow Ukraine to conduct successful elections, and to support Ukraine as it pursues a democratic future.


----------



## Fishbone Jones

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Actually these are both important _diplomatic_ actions and, in my opinion, both are good policy, too. It is time to bounce Putin/Russia from the G-8 ~ no matter what Washington (both Democrats and the GOP) says.



Sorry, just catching up today.

Would bouncing them not be taking the chance that they just say, "What the hell, what have we got to lose?"

Would it not also be possible for the UN to suspend them?

As far as what Washington has to say, under Obama, they appear to have become a toothless dog anyway. I don't think Putin takes him serious. It hasn't swayed his opinion anywhere else the Soviets back conflict.

Would sanctions and world rhetoric, like what happened in S Africa during Apartheid work? However, the Soviets supply a lot of natural gas to the rest of Europe. We might have to wait for warmer weather.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> ...
> I would answer your question with another:  If not Ukraine then what?
> ...




I can think of at least a few things that would lead me to a war against Russia; and a few, albeit fewer, that would lead me to war against China.

Issues regarding "freedom of the seas," and seabed "territoriality" (sovereignty) ~ issues that currently divide  Russia from Canada and the USA ~ are amongst them.

In the case of Ukraine:

     1. I sympathize and support the legitimate desire of many, but not all, Ukrainians to have closer economic and political ties with Western Europe.

     2. But I, equally, sympathize with the equally legitimate desire of some, but, again, not all, Ukrainians to have closer ties with Russia.

          There is nothing fundamentally wrong with either position; but they are incompatible in a single state. (Think Lord Durham and all that.)

     3. Russia has a _strategically_ valid claim to Crimea. The fact, and it is a fact, that Putin is a thug, running a thuggishly aggressive state, is neither here not there.

     4. Partition of Ukraine _may_ be the best of a bad lot of 'solutions.' Ukraine loses. There's no question about that. It loses a lot. It ceases to exist, for all practical purposes. But Ukrainians, broadly, get what they want.

I remain unconvinced that the territorial integrity of Ukraine is an acceptable _casus belli_. It may be that demise of the former Czechoslovakia is the right model. There will be, perhaps needs to be some "voluntary" _ethnic cleansing_ ~ banks and other agencies, public and private, in (and beyond) both new states can, with a wee tiny bit of good will and some enlightened self interest, facilitate the desirable shifting of people.


----------



## Infanteer

_The whole of the Balkans is not worth the bones of a single Pomeranian grenadier_

 ???


----------



## Fishbone Jones

KerryBlue said:
			
		

> Here's the cut and paste statement most world governments will make:
> "Both myself [insert head of state here] and the government of [insert country here] strongly condemn Russia's military actions against Ukraine, violating both their sovereignty and their right to a peaceful, political resolution to the turmoil that is going on within their country. Russia's aggression towards Ukraine will severely harm [insert country here]'s diplomatic ties with Russia, and further repercussions are being debated by my council/cabinet. We would like to urge Russia to immediately end all military campaigns within Ukraine and withdraw their troops immediately. At this time [insert country here] stands behind the people of Ukraine, because we are all Ukrainians."
> 
> Within two weeks a new conflict will occur and everyone will forget about Crimea.



Please quote your sources and their ability to conject what makes them think this will be the unified message amongst nations.


----------



## Edward Campbell

recceguy said:
			
		

> Sorry, just catching up today.
> 
> Would bouncing them not be taking the chance that they just say, "What the hell, what have we got to lose?" That is, certainly, a risk. But, despite some, limited improvements in Russia's economic position, it remains a weak state. And anything Russsia does in the West might leave it open to pressures from the East. Russia fears China ... with good reason
> 
> Would it not also be possible for the UN to suspend them? I think not. Russia's SC veto makes it hard. We (Dean Acheson, Ernest Bevin and Louis St Laurent) thought up "Uniting for Peace" in 1950, but the Russians are unlikely to have forgotten that ploy ... plus I'm not sure our 21st century statesmen are up to that intellectual standard.
> 
> As far as what Washington has to say, under Obama, they appear to have become a toothless dog anyway. I don't think Putin takes him serious. It hasn't swayed his opinion anywhere else the Soviets back conflict.
> 
> Would sanctions and world rhetoric, like what happened in S Africa during Apartheid work? However, the Soviets supply a lot of natural gas to the rest of Europe. We might have to wait for warmer weather. Yes, I think so ... but I think they are going to be hard to organize for the reason to cite.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Putin has clearly read Halford Mackinder's "The Geographical Pivot of History"







"Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland;
who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island;
who rules the World-Island controls the world."
(Mackinder, Democratic Ideals and Reality, p. 106)

Maybe America and the EU should pick up a copy.  If they want something a little more up to date perhaps I can recommend the following:


----------



## Kirkhill

I would accept the partition of the Ukraine as a win.  He can have Crimea back - It's kind of like a Russian Gibraltar.  Even Donetsk could be acceptable.  I am not sure about the entire eastern bank of the Dniepr.  There are Ukrainians east of the Northern Dniepr and Russians west of the Southern Dniepr.  Strategically it makes more "sense" to saw off along the line of the Dniepr and have Russia retain Sebastopol and Ukraine Odessa.  However that would leave both Russians and Ukrainians hostages to fate on both sides of the river....Is that necessarily a bad thing?  Especially if, as you cite in the case of the Czech Slovak split a bit of voluntary ethnic cleansing were permitted.

I am not convinced that Putin will accept Crimea if he can have Kiev as well.  I am inclined to believe the only way to convince him that he can't have Kiev is to make it more likely he risks confronting an opposing force.

Even if that risks moving the Berlin Wall east.


----------



## Kirkhill

MacKinder may want to go back and check his archaeology.

Horses have been ridden on the steppes at least since the Botai domesticated them in Kazakhstan 6000 years ago






Chariots have been part of the network since at least 4000 years ago with the Andronovo.






I am not aware of any stable organizations in that area since those eras that could be charitably called an empire.  Instability has been the hallmark of that part of the world - and while there has been a whole lot of raiding and trading going on there has been nothing like a central authority that can impose its will over its own people, much less recalcitrant neighbours.


----------



## pbi

Putin, nasty thug that he may be, presiding over a xenophobic kleptocracy as he may do, is smart. He is deploying arguments and justifications which other nations will find hard to challenge without appearing utterly hypocritical.

Chief among these, IMHO, is the "need" to protect the lives and livelihoods of  Russians (both citizens and ethnic) living in the Ukraine, particularly the East, and specifically in Crimea. It might be worth remembering that, with the possible exception of the current administration, the US has historically rarely hesitated to use military force to protect its nationals if it felt they were in  danger in a foreign crisis. Now, granted that a NEO by a small MEU is not the same as what the Russians are engaging in right now, but the underlying principle is one that, I think both the US and probably the UK (and, certainly, France...) would not want to see undermined.

Pinning any hope on China in this situation is nonsense. The Chinese  are well known to avoid blanket condemnations of the use of force by nations for internal matters, or even "neighborhood" matters, (except possibly for condemnations against the US) lest that same condemnation be used against them at some point. They are likely only too happy to see the West tied up in knots, and Russia engaged in something that has the potential to turn nasty, thereby  keeping them busy.

The sensible (if painful and not very proud) solution is the partition of the Ukraine. Recent events have revealed that the country had "ethnic cancer", anyway, such that a violent separation might only have been a matter of time.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> MacKinder may want to go back and check his archaeology.
> 
> Horses have been ridden on the steppes at least since the Botai domesticated them in Kazakhstan 6000 years ago
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Chariots have been part of the network since at least 4000 years ago with the Andronovo.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I am not aware of any stable organizations in that area since those eras that could be charitably called an empire.  Instability has been the hallmark of that part of the world - and while there has been a whole lot of raiding and trading going on there has been nothing like a central authority that can impose its will over its own people, much less recalcitrant neighbours.



That's the point though, instability has marked that part of the world because it is the geographical pivot.  He who manages to gain control of it will dominate the world.  Some of Mackinder's ideas have been disproven but I believe this theory holds some merit.  Karl Haushofer (His ideas were what the Nazi's based their expansionist strategies on) certainly thought so as well and whatever we may believe, WWII was won and lost in the Eastern European theatre of war.

Mackinder's theories were also extremely influential on American strategic policy during the Cold War.  If you read Kaplan's book he puts fourth a good case on why Mackinder, Mahan and other prominent geographers theories were cast away at the end of the Cold War but why they still matter.  The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq were the smacks in the face to this reality but I am unsure if they woke us up yet, hopefully this will.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

pbi said:
			
		

> Putin, nasty thug that he may be, presiding over a xenophobic kleptocracy as he may do, is smart. He is deploying arguments and justifications which other nations will find hard to challenge without appearing utterly hypocritical.
> 
> Chief among these, IMHO, is the "need" to protect the lives and livelihoods of  Russians (both citizens and ethnic) living in the Ukraine, particularly the East, and specifically in Crimea. It might be worth remembering that, with the possible exception of the current administration, the US has historically rarely hesitated to use military force to protect its nationals if it felt they were in  danger in a foreign crisis. Now, granted that a NEO by a small MEU is not the same as what the Russians are engaging in right now, but the underlying principle is one that, I think both the US and probably the UK (and, certainly, France...) would not want to see undermined.
> 
> Pinning any hope on China in this situation is nonsense. The Chinese  are well known to avoid blanket condemnations of the use of force by nations for internal matters, or even "neighborhood" matters, (except possibly for condemnations against the US) lest that same condemnation be used against them at some point. They are likely only too happy to see the West tied up in knots, and Russia engaged in something that has the potential to turn nasty, thereby  keeping them busy.
> 
> The sensible (if painful and not very proud) solution is the partition of the Ukraine. Recent events have revealed that the country had "ethnic cancer", anyway, such that a violent separation might only have been a matter of time.



Good point, using the idea of "responsibility to protect" is a smart move by Putin and at the end of the day he may have a point.  I also agree that the Ukraine seems to have "ethnic cancer" and by doing this Putin may actually be preventing another Yugoslavia from occurring.


----------



## Kirkhill

I can see why Putin would want to gain control over the landmass - thus creating Mackinder's Eurasia to Mahan's Oceania - but the reality is that nobody has been able to prevent the teeter tottering while standing at the balance point.  As much as many have tried.

Putin has interests in Ukraine, right enough, and perhaps no bigger interests than those defined in this article



> It was a little over 48 hours since enraged protesters based at Kiev’s Maidan opposition camp had driven Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych from power, but the shockwaves were already being felt on the glitzy streets of central Moscow.
> 
> “If there is no freedom in Russia, there will be a Maidan!” ...
> 
> “Things can’t go on like this forever,” sighed Olga, a rosy-cheeked young woman sporting ear muffs and the white ribbon that is the symbol of discontent with “national leader” Vladimir Putin’s long rule, as police snatched another activist from the crowd. “The people of Kiev rose up to kick out Yanukovych, and we’ll do the same to Putin one day.” ....
> 
> For many in the protest movement, however, the Kremlin’s current crackdown is simply a temporary setback ahead of what they believe is Putin’s inevitable downfall.
> “History demonstrates that all authoritarian regimes, be they in Ukraine, Libya, Tunisia or Russia, eventually share the same fate,” insisted Dmitry Gudkov, a snappily dressed thirtysomething who is one of just a handful of MPs openly to side with the anti-Putin movement. “If the people are denied the chance to change their leaders democratically, they will find other means.”....
> 
> Russia’s protesters have, however, so far proven largely unwilling to demonstrate the kind of spectacular commitment to change exhibited by their counterparts in Kiev. Brief attempts by more radical members of the opposition to establish a permanent protest camp in Moscow after Putin’s controversial 2012 election victory were met with alarm and bewilderment by mainly middle-class protesters. If a sustained attempt to dislodge Putin is to materialise, then its “muscle”, as in Ukraine, is likely to be supplied by the far-Right. “For Russia to get its own Maidan, we need the participation of at least 7,000 nationalist activists and 150,000 ordinary citizens, hipsters and the like,” said Dmitry Dyomushkin, the ex-head of the outlawed ultra-Right Slavic Union movement.
> 
> “In this case, we’d see an escalation, victims and open confrontation, and so on,” Dyomushkin added. “But so far the protests have all been hijacked by liberal protest leaders.”...



Putin can't allow Assad and Yanukovych to fall because then the unthinkable becomes thinkable.


----------



## a_majoor

If we want to make non military counter moves that will help Ukraine and the West while punishing Russia, then Canada holds two high cards:

1. Sign a fee trade agreement with the new government of the Ukraine (stipulating that it covers the territory controlled by said government. Russian controlled areas need not apply), and:

2. Start pumping oil and natural gas as fast as possible to Europe. Build whatever infrastructure it takes, but do it on a crash basis.

Both moves undermine the threat of Russian economic blackmail against Ukraine and Europe, and also cut a nice chunk out of Putin's oil and gas export revenues. Since he has gained a section of land full of Russians (with Russian cultural mores and attitudes), I have some  *doubts* that he has gained a lot economically, and paying through the nose to keep the Crimea propped up and the locals happy (especially when they can look across the Dneiper and see the economy gradually growing and strengthening on the west bank of the Dneiper and start to wonder why the **** things are not looking up on the east bank) will be an interesting conundrum for the Russians to solve.


----------



## The Bread Guy

A snippet from inside a UKR compound ....


> .... The troops may not wear insignia on their uniforms, but they arrived in trucks with Russian military plates and are well armed. Privately, the commanders admitted to Ukrainian troops that they were Russian regular troops. Given that some of them were personally acquainted, there was not much point in hiding it.
> 
> As Major Lomtev in Feodosia put it: "We know a lot of them, because we have done a lot of joint exercises together and have close links with them. To be honest, I don't think they are very proud of the orders they are carrying out at the moment."
> 
> At Perevalnoye, not far from the regional capital, Simferopol, more than a dozen trucks stood nearby as more than 100 soldiers patrolled the perimeter and nearby hills. The Ukrainian coastguard division inside said they would not give up the base, staring out at the Russians from behind the gate.
> 
> After negotiations, the two sides agreed not to point their guns at each other, but the standoff remained tense, with a priest from the nearby Ukrainian orthodox church reciting prayers and brandishing a cross.
> 
> (....)
> 
> Inside the base at Feodosia, word came that the order had come from Kiev that all marines should give up their weapons voluntarily to the Russians. One of the marines then read on Facebook that the news was apparently fake, and rushed off to inform his superiors who were in negotiations with Russians. Many of the marines were on the phone to friends at other bases, asking whether they had been forced to give up their weapons.
> 
> Russian state media reported widespread desertions to the Crimean forces. It was difficult to verify whether this really was happening. Even an official representative of the Ukrainian defence ministry seemed unclear. Ruslan Semenyuk said: "I don't know of any cases where soldiers have voluntarily given up their arms, but there is one base where the Russians seized the weapons, and then moved them to another Ukrainian base. We don't know why they did this, maybe just as a display of force. About other cases, I don't know."
> 
> At Feodosia, the Russians came back, led by a lieutenant-general and a retired general, for more talks. After meeting the commanders, a group of three dozen officers assembled to be briefed by the Russians. The Guardian was asked to leave the room during the talks, as the Russians refused to speak in front of journalists. Afterwards, the Ukrainians said they had again been asked, "firmly but politely" to give up their weapons, and had again refused.
> 
> One marine, carrying his kalashnikov through the grounds of the base late in the evening, did not want to be identified but was happy to share his allegiances.
> 
> Asked what would happen if, next time, the Russians came with orders rather than requests, the men claimed to have no doubt. "I am Russian myself, I was born there," he said. "But we are professional soldiers and we have given an oath of duty. We will not give up this place without a fight."





			
				Thucydides said:
			
		

> If we want to make non military counter moves that will help Ukraine ....


At this point, I'm not seeing a whole lot of will to do anything to help Ukraine, much less building pipelines like crazy next to (eventually) Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine - pipelines that'll eventually be cut off at some point, given Russia's proclivities.


----------



## Kat Stevens

That groovy graphic is very cool and all, but to my mind the centre of everything has shifted a few thousand kilometres to the East and South.  Russia has influence over Russian and it's immediate neighbours, mostly because they play that ridiculous Slavic card of "Russia is anywhere Russians are", somewhat like their Serbian brethren to the South.  My woefully uneducated opinion of course.


----------



## Old Sweat

The following story which provides a platform for two retired senior diplomats to vent - some might say petulantly - is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provision of the Copyright Act.

Ottawa reduced to ‘gestures’ on Ukraine response, say former top envoys

By Mike Blanchfield — CP — Mar 2 2014

OTTAWA - The Harper government's response to the Russia-Ukraine crisis smacked of empty gestures from a country that has become increasingly marginalized on the world stage, two retired Canadian ambassadors charged Sunday.

Those scathing reviews came from two of the county's most distinguished ex-diplomats: Jeremy Kinsman, who has served as Canada's senior envoy to Russia, Britain, Italy and the European Union, and Paul Heinbecker, the former ambassador to the United Nations and an adviser to past Conservative and Liberal prime ministers.

They were highly critical of Prime Minister Stephen Harper's decision Saturday to temporarily withdraw Canada's ambassador to Russia, and of Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird for not ruling out the expulsion of Russia's ambassador to Canada, Georgiy Mamedov, in a later televised interview.

Both dismissed the Canadian response as "gestures" that underscored Canada's lack of clout on the world stage, especially since its historic failure to win a temporary seat on the United Nations Security Council in 2010.

"We are the great practitioners of grand gestures," Kinsman said Sunday in a telephone interview from California.

"Pulling your ambassador out for consultations — I happen to believe always you don't do that. That's strictly a gesture. This is the one time when you want your ambassador there."

Kinsman said that recalling Canada's ambassador and suggesting the Russia's envoy to Ottawa could be next is "silly" and that the government simply wants to be "seem to be doing something."

"That's just childish," he added. "Georgiy Mamedov is the dean of the diplomatic corps. He's being there for 11 years, he's been dealing with Canada for 30. He's a professional."

Heinbecker said at times like these it is essential to maintain high-level diplomatic contact — not cut it off.

"Mamedov is one of the guys you really want to be able to talk to," Heinbecker said in an interview in Ottawa.

"Mamedov was the guy who negotiated the end of the Kosovo war. He knows a little bit about how to cope with these kind of West-versus-Russia situations."

Heinbecker said he hopes Canada's envoy returns to his post in Moscow within days and that the Harper government recognizes the need to keep its embassy there, and Russia's in Ottawa, functioning at full strength.

"It's a government given to gestures. It's foreign-policy by declaration and by gesture, all calculated with an eye on the next election," Heinbecker said of Ottawa's general response to the crisis.

Fen Hampson, director of the global security at Waterloo, Ont.'s Centre for International Governance Innovation, defended the government's decision as "a principled step in the right direction." He also praised Baird for visiting protesters in Kyiv in December.

On Saturday, Harper also announced that Canada planned to boycott preparatory meetings of ministers and officials for the G8 summit, which is supposed to be held in June in Sochi, where the Winter Olympics just ended.

Hampson said Canada should begin discussions with other G8 members about expelling Russia, "which was admitted on our watch at the Halifax summit" in 1995. He also said Canada has an influential role to play in NATO.

"As a NATO member, we should also be pressing to beef up NATO forces in Central Europe and the Balkans while also ensuring in ongoing talks between NATO and Russia that the situation does not escalate or get out of hand," he added.

Roland Paris, director of the University of Ottawa's Centre for International Policy Studies, said Canada needs to do more to reinforce its commitment to NATO.

"These events also underscore the ongoing importance of the NATO alliance. There is a perception among some officials at NATO headquarters that Canada's commitment to the alliance has waned in recent years."

Senior Foreign Affairs Department officials also summoned Mamedov on Saturday, and reamed him out "in the strongest terms certainly in my time at Foreign Affairs," Baird told Global's West Block on Sunday. Baird did not rule out expelling Mamedov, saying "we'll obviously be revisiting this on an hour by hour basis."

Kinsman and Heinbecker said all the bluster underscored the fact that Canada's ability to influence world events has been greatly diminished since loss of the Security Council seat in 2010. Baird has since said Canada won't mount a repeat campaign to win a seat.

This past weekend there was a reminder of Canada's failure to win a temporary seat on the United Nations Security Council in 2010. Had Canada succeeded its two-year term would've expired by now.

However, tiny Luxembourg chaired Saturday's crucial council meeting on the crisis, as part of the rotating duties that the rotating cast of non-permanent countries is allowed to perform at the influential world body.

"Generally speaking, you can see that the big issues do get discussed at the UN Security Council," said Heinbecker.

"When you take yourself out of that game, you lose one of the vehicles you have for having some influence."

Added Kinsman: "If you're not there, you're not involved. It's the same as pulling out your ambassador. You need to be present for any discussion. Outcomes always involve compromise."

Baird is flouting the "evidence" that compromise is a necessary feature of international diplomacy and you need to be at the table to negotiate it, said Kinsman.

The reality, said Kinsman, is that Ukraine is Russia's neighbour and the two have to be encouraged by the West to find a diplomatic solution to the current crisis.

Heinbecker said there is no prospect that NATO countries will ride into Ukraine like the "calvary" based on the lack of military intervention to save Georgia or in Syria.

The only way out of the situation, said Heinbecker, is a diplomatic effort, "a mixture of carrots and sticks."

Instead of simply boycotting the G8 meeting the other member countries should convene a separate G7 at the same time as the Sochi meeting would have taken place, he said.

"That would send some kind of a message to Putin.


----------



## Fishbone Jones

It looks like the Diplomatic Corps is still smarting from the bitch slap the PM gave them a while back.

Sour grapes?


----------



## Edward Campbell

Jeremy Kinsman and Paul Heinbecker held very senior appointments, at or near the _political centre_ during the period while Canada's international capabilities were being (consciously) reduced to a level where can do nothing more than offer "empty gestures."

I have nothing but contempt for Mr. Kinsman and I think even less of Mr. Heinbecker. They are both Liberal shills.


----------



## jeffb

And yet, withdrawing ambassadors does not seem to be a very wise decision in the face of potential hostilities. This is not some rogue nation the West is dealing with. Russia's nuclear, and even its conventional, arsenals, represent the only significant threat to the West at present (notwithstanding the rise of China). We simply can not afford a return to a "us versus them" mentality and, if now is not the time for dialogue, I'm not sure when it is. We, and I mean the West in general, really only have three options here. We can either risk open conflict by dispatching troops to the region, we can put economic and diplomatic pressure on Russia or we can side with Russia over Ukraine. I think option 1 and 3 are untenable for a variety of reasons found in this thread (not the least of which is financial). This leaves western governments with the remaining option of economic and diplomatic pressure. Pulling out diplomats seems to me to fly in the face of this. 

If we were really serious about sending a message to Moscow we'd send a BG on an extended exercise with Poland, ideally in western Poland, as part of a Multinational Division or some other NATO country in the region but I don't foresee that happening. It would require some serious political will in both Europe and the United States which I think, at this point at least, is absent.


----------



## devil39

pbi said:
			
		

> Putin, nasty thug that he may be, presiding over a xenophobic kleptocracy as he may do, is smart. He is deploying arguments and justifications which other nations will find hard to challenge without appearing utterly hypocritical.
> 
> Chief among these, IMHO, is the "need" to protect the lives and livelihoods of  Russians (both citizens and ethnic) living in the Ukraine, particularly the East, and specifically in Crimea. It might be worth remembering that, with the possible exception of the current administration, the US has historically rarely hesitated to use military force to protect its nationals if it felt they were in  danger in a foreign crisis. Now, granted that a NEO by a small MEU is not the same as what the Russians are engaging in right now, but the underlying principle is one that, I think both the US and probably the UK (and, certainly, France...) would not want to see undermined.
> 
> Pinning any hope on China in this situation is nonsense. The Chinese  are well known to avoid blanket condemnations of the use of force by nations for internal matters, or even "neighborhood" matters, (except possibly for condemnations against the US) lest that same condemnation be used against them at some point. They are likely only too happy to see the West tied up in knots, and Russia engaged in something that has the potential to turn nasty, thereby  keeping them busy.
> 
> The sensible (if painful and not very proud) solution is the partition of the Ukraine. Recent events have revealed that the country had "ethnic cancer", anyway, such that a violent separation might only have been a matter of time.



Not a lot of good options here....but sounding a lot like "Peace in our time"  Simplistic, yes....but I can only imagine how the Ukrainian state must feel.  

Granted Adolf Hitler wasn't holding nukes....but he was pulling a very similar move.  I guess we have to believe this time that there is not a larger campaign plan....

I go back to the stratfor geopolitical analysis of Russia I posted last week....there are certain imperatives.  Crimea won't be the end of this, there will likely be further partition.


----------



## Fishbone Jones

jeffb said:
			
		

> And yet, withdrawing ambassadors does not seem to be a very wise decision in the face of potential hostilities. This is not some rogue nation the West is dealing with. Russia's nuclear, and even its conventional, arsenals, represent the only significant threat to the West at present (notwithstanding the rise of China). We simply can not afford a return to a "us versus them" mentality and, if now is not the time for dialogue, I'm not sure when it is. We, and I mean the West in general, really only have three options here. We can either risk open conflict by dispatching troops to the region, we can put economic and diplomatic pressure on Russia or we can side with Russia over Ukraine. I think option 1 and 3 are untenable for a variety of reasons found in this thread (not the least of which is financial). This leaves western governments with the remaining option of economic and diplomatic pressure. Pulling out diplomats seems to me to fly in the face of this.
> 
> If we were really serious about sending a message to Moscow we'd send a BG on an extended exercise with Poland, ideally in western Poland, as part of a Multinational Division or some other NATO country in the region but I don't foresee that happening. It would require some serious political will in both Europe and the United States which I think, at this point at least, is absent.



You realize that a Cdn BG is but a small pimple on the enemy ops board, right?

No significant equipment, no significant threat, easily bypassed.........

In the end, we'll stop shit or provide any kind of deterrent, let alone a political one.


----------



## vonGarvin

pbi said:
			
		

> Putin, nasty thug that he may be, presiding over a xenophobic kleptocracy as he may do, is smart. He is deploying arguments and justifications which other nations will find hard to challenge without appearing utterly hypocritical.
> 
> Chief among these, IMHO, is the "need" to protect the lives and livelihoods of  Russians (both citizens and ethnic) living in the Ukraine, particularly the East, and specifically in Crimea. It might be worth remembering that, with the possible exception of the current administration, the US has historically rarely hesitated to use military force to protect its nationals if it felt they were in  danger in a foreign crisis. Now, granted that a NEO by a small MEU is not the same as what the Russians are engaging in right now, but the underlying principle is one that, I think both the US and probably the UK (and, certainly, France...) would not want to see undermined.
> 
> Pinning any hope on China in this situation is nonsense. The Chinese  are well known to avoid blanket condemnations of the use of force by nations for internal matters, or even "neighborhood" matters, (except possibly for condemnations against the US) lest that same condemnation be used against them at some point. They are likely only too happy to see the West tied up in knots, and Russia engaged in something that has the potential to turn nasty, thereby  keeping them busy.
> 
> The sensible (if painful and not very proud) solution is the partition of the Ukraine. Recent events have revealed that the country had "ethnic cancer", anyway, such that a violent separation might only have been a matter of time.


This current administration, less than 24 hours ago as I type this, used lethal force in a sovereign state that was not its own. (Drone strike in Yemen).  You make good points, but this current administration is no less interventionist than any other.


----------



## Old Sweat

Matthew Fisher, in the electronic version of The National Post, provides an update and summary that is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provision of the Copyright Act:

Little stands in Putin’s way

Postmedia News

The military conquest of the Crimea by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s armed forces continued to be a straightforward, bloodless walkover on Sunday.

With Russian forces operating freely in Crimea, Ukraine’s caretaker prime minister, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, put Ukrainian forces on “red alert” on Sunday and warned that if Russia seized more territory this would be considered “a declaration of war against my country.”

With Ukraine on what he termed “the brink of disaster,” Mr. Yatsenyuk appealed to the West for immediate help to counter the Russian forces.

There seemed to be no chance of that. Stunned Western leaders and diplomats blustered and issued feeble threats again Sunday as Mr. Putin’s military juggernaut completed its stranglehold on the Black Sea peninsula.
With Western nations already paralyzed by what has so far happened in Ukraine, Mr. Putin threatened U.S. President Barack Obama that he would broaden the invasion to include mining cities in northeastern Ukraine such as Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv if Russia found it necessary “to protect its own interests and those of Russian speakers,” the official RIA/Novosti news agency reported from Moscow.

Such an action could lead to Ukraine breaking in two. Were that to happen, with lots of Ukrainians all over eastern Ukraine and some Russians in the west of the country, there would certainly be violent recriminations and quite possibly civil war.

Speaking with residents of Kyiv and Sevastopol it already seems as if Ukraine is two countries, not one, with ferocious rhetoric emanating from both sides. “The people of western Ukraine are the grandchildren of those who betrayed us by collaborating with the Nazis,” said Yuri Kovalenko who signed up with the Organization for the Defence of Crimea which sprang up when Ukraine’s pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych fled on Feb. 22 after several days of bloody street battles between his security forces and activists who want Ukraine to cast its lot with western Europe.

Outside the self-defence headquarters in an industrial college on Sevastopol’s Sovietskaya Street, large groups of men gathered to denounce “the fascists” who now ran things in Kyiv.

“Russia has come to defend us and it makes us happy,” said Yuri Stupin, who worked for two years as a truck driver in Toronto.

But it was difficult to see who the Russian forces, or their allies in the ragtag civil defence unit, might have to defend the Crimea from as there has not been a whiff of opposition to them anywhere in Sevastopol.

“We have not seen the enemy here,” spokesman Stanislav Nagoril said with an awkward smile. “But we see them on TV all the time. Our volunteers must be ready to defend ourselves against any provocateurs.”

Nagoril went to great lengths to refute the notion that Crimeans were separatists.

“We are citizens of Ukraine and what we want is the return of our democratically elected government,” he said.
Why then, he was asked, was he standing under a Russian flag which had been raised when the Ukrainian flag had been taken down.

“That isn’t the flag of another country,” he said, referring implausibly to the Russian tricolour. “It is the flag of Russian speaking people everywhere.”

In a new development Sunday, thousands of Ukrainian sailors and soldiers were locked inside their own bases across Crimea by Russian troops or by pro-Russian Crimeans apparently acting in close concert with them.

One of the last Ukrainian military installations that Russian troops surrounded was an army base at Perevalnoye, about two hours drive to the north of Sevastopol, where Ukrainian and Russian troops stared grimly at each other from a distance of only a few metres.

By the terms of a treaty with Ukraine signed after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has the right to moor its Black Sea Fleet and base about 6,000 sailors and marines at or near Sevastopol until 2042. But that lease agreement specifically forbade Russia from deploying forces elsewhere in Crimea or to bring in more troops from Russia without the Ukrainian government’s consent.

The tactics at Perevalnoye were virtually an exact repeat of what happened one day earlier at Balaklava where 300 Russian marines backed by armoured personnel carriers seized the storied port from which survivors of the infamous Charge of the Light Brigade made their way home to England in 1854.

The Russian troops that occupied Balaklava actually wore black balaclavas similar to those worn by British troops during the Crimean War. Where today’s Russian troops at Balaklava were subsequently ordered to move to was not known, but it could not have been far. The Crimea is only half the size of Nova Scotia.

Ukraine’s top sailor, Denis Berezovsky, who had only held the job for two days, defected Sunday. He was shown on local television swearing allegiance to the new Crimean Navy, which he will now lead. It was the first high-level defection from the Ukrainian armed forces. Ukraine’s immediate response was to charge Adm. Berezovsky with treason. Despite reports of mass defections in the Russian media, it does not appear as if many members of Ukraine’s armed forces have yet walked away or switched sides.

In what clearly was a strategic repositioning of forces rather than a retreat, the Russians in Balaklava vanished in the wee hours of Sunday from the doorstep of the Ukrainian Coast Guard and border police headquarters, which backs on to the harbour. But not before residents of the town had greeted them like conquering heroes.

“The Ukrainian navy and coast guard are still under Kyiv’s control and have told us that they will not take orders from Sevastopol,” said Sergei Napran who sits on the city council. “But they have agreed to not put any of their vessels to sea.”

Among the military facilities that local self-defence groups laid siege to on Sunday were the Ukrainian navy’s headquarters in Sevastopol.

Closely watched by about 20 pro-Russia Crimeans, the distraught mother of a Ukrainian officer showed up at the headquarters with bottles of water for her son because there was none available inside.

“They are saying there may be a provocation,” the middle aged woman said before hurrying away. “Local groups are telling him to go home.”


----------



## Edward Campbell

Source: http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21597948-ukraine-biggest-test-eus-policy-towards-countries-its-borderlands-how-be-good
Reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the _Economist_

You can, with equal accuracy, substitute, NATO or US or UN for the "EU Neighbourhood Policy."


Edit: capitalization


----------



## a_majoor

Technoviking said:
			
		

> This current administration, less than 24 hours ago as I type this, used lethal force in a sovereign state that was not its own. (Drone strike in Yemen).  You make good points, but this current administration is no less interventionist than any other.



Yemen is such a permissive environment that it is practically a hunting preserve. The point about the Administration isn't that they "won't" intervene, its that they don't want to be placed in a position where there may be hard choices or messy political consequences to their actions. Libya was practically interpretive dance (why were the United States and Canada there again?), but the larger pattern strting with the Green Revolution in 2009 and continuing with schizophrenic responses to provocations in the South China Sea (flying American bombers through the Chinese "Air Defense Zone" while at the same time telling commercial carriers to respect it and register their flights), Syria (meaningless "Red Lines"), the theatrical surge in Afghanistan, toothless responses to Iranian nuclear and conventional adventurism etc. certainly emboldens Putin.

I suspect that he is willing to seize the land to the East bank of the Ukraine by force knowing that the worst e will receive may be a paper cut as he opens the latest strongly worded letter, and perhaps he won't be invited to quite so many international events.

This is why a response like a Canadian pipeline building program to ship oil and gas to the East Coast for export to Europe will actually hurt; it isn't overtly threatening, but it removes a large portion of the economic leverage Russia has over Europe and curtails Russia's export earnings, which power the Russian economy and provide Putin with the cash to bribe or coerce his counterparts in Russia and the Near Beyond. Where else did the $15 billion bribe to the former Presidfent of Ukraine to spurn the EU deal come from?

Grabbing Russia by the economic short and curly's, while providing the Europeans and Ukrainians with a reliable source of energy will serve multiple purposes. We already know the negative effects to Russia, but the economic boost of building new infrastructure in Europe to deal with the imported Canadian energy (plus the additional boost of reliable, low cost energy) will allow our allies to economically pull away, while Russia will have to spend far more of its declining revenues on bribes and subsidies to keep its people satisfied, or at least less aware of their economic disadvantages vs the *West*.


----------



## Robert0288

> 11:58: The Ukrainian State Border Service says two Russian assault landing ships arrived illegally in the port of Sevastopol, Crimea, on Sunday. It named the ships as the Olenegorskiy Gornyak from the Northern Fleet and the Georgy Pobedonosets of the Baltic Fleet. Russia's Black Sea Fleet is based in Sevastopol.


Source: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26413953

I think they might be these guys: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ropucha_class_landing_ship

Capacity from wiki:
10 main battle tanks and 200 troops or 12 BTR and 340 troops or 3 main battle tanks, 3 2S9 «Nona-S», 5 MT-LB, 4 army trucks and 313 troops or 500 tons of cargo


----------



## Edward Campbell

This is unlikely to be a "win-win" for Russia.

While I _accept_ that Russia is, mainly, just trying to maintain the _status quo ante_, and I understand their _strategic_ imperative to do that, their aggression must not be rewarded.

First: we, the US led West, must tell President Putin that Western Ukraine is off limits. While we can/will _accept_ Russia's claim to Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, the rest of Ukraine must be allowed to decide its own future in its own way, without Russian pressure. That _may_ require that we, the US led West, actually station troops, temporarily, in Ukraine. (One of my young, serving, friends has considerable experience in Ukraine and has told me that we and the Ukrainians can work together in reasonably good order.)

Second: Russia must pay, economically, for this. The _ruble_ is already in trouble, Russia is now selling junk bonds on the world markets (7+% this morning.). We need to keep it that way. They *must* be expelled from the G8 and the G20, the US led West has enough power to do that, even though one or to G20 members _may_ object. (My guess is that China will not object to punishing Russia for this.)

Third: the EU must fast track Ukraine into the EU.

Fourth: NATO should invited Ukraine to join. (I remain convinced that an enlarged NATO is a 'weaker' NATO but it is, now, politically important to 'defend' Eastern Europe.)


----------



## Edward Campbell

In an article, which is reproduced here under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from _Business Insider_, respected political scientist Ian Bremmer says that Ukraine is the "most seismic geopolitcal event since 9/1:"

http://www.businessinsider.com/ian-bremmer-on-ukraine-2014-3


> We're Witnessing The Most Seismic Geopolitical Events Since 9/11
> 
> IAN BREMMER
> 
> MAR. 2, 2014
> 
> _The following guest column comes courtesy of Eurasia Group President and Founder Ian Bremmer._
> 
> As Russia conducts direct military intervention in Ukraine, the US and Europe condemn it, and the Ukrainian army goes on high alert, we're witnessing the most seismic geopolitical events since 9/11.
> 
> A big part of the problem is that Russia is a declining power, and it’s in the West's best interest to let that slowly play out over time. But the recent response on Ukraine pushed too hard, prompting President Vladimir Putin to retaliate with a decisive response. To say the US-Russia relationship is presently broken is an understatement. Going forward, there are three central questions that should prove most interesting.
> 
> First, what will the West’s direct response be? We won’t see much, although there will certainly be some very significant finger-pointing. President Obama will cancel his trip to Sochi for the upcoming G-8 summit, and it's possible that enough of the other leaders will join him that the meeting will need to be scratched. It's conceivable the G-7 nations would vote to remove Russia from the club.
> 
> U.S Secretary of State John Kerry warned: “There’s a unified view by all of the foreign ministers I talked with yesterday — all of the G-8 and more — they’re simply going to isolate Russia; that they’re not going to engage with Russia in a normal business-as-usual manner.”
> 
> It's possible we see an emergency United Nations Security Council session to denounce the intervention — which the Russians would no doubt veto — but it would be very interesting to see if the Chinese join them, and to see who abstains in voting. NATO will have to fashion some response, possibly by sending ships into the Black Sea. But given the depth of economic ties, it is very hard to see significant European powers actually breaking relations with Russia at this point.
> 
> In fact, it’s hard to envision serious sanctions coming together, given the coordination it would take between the US and the various European powers (Germany in particular). In short, shots won't be fired, but markets will get fired up.
> 
> Second, what international complications can Russia stir up? Events in Ukraine will significantly complicate all areas of US-Russia ties. Russia doesn't want an Iranian nuclear weapon, but they'll be somewhat less cooperative with the Americans and Europeans around Iranian negotiations ... possibly making them more likely to offer a "third way" down the road that undermines the American deal.
> 
> On Syria, an intransigent Russia will become very intransigent, making it more difficult to implement the chemical weapons agreement; Moscow will provide greater direct financial and military support for Bashar Assad's regime. And if Russia were to invade Eastern Ukraine, a host of other issues would surface, including energy concerns surrounding major pipelines and the maintained flow of natural gas.
> 
> Lastly, will events in Ukraine result in a broader geopolitical shift? Russia will see its key opportunity as closing ranks more tightly with China. While we may see symbolic coordination from Beijing, particularly if there's a Security Council vote (where the Chinese are reasonably likely to vote with the Russians), the Chinese are trying hard to maintain a balanced relationship with the United States ... and accordingly won't directly support Russian actions that could undermine that relationship.
> 
> Leaving aside China, Russia's ability to get other third party states on board with their Ukrainian engagement is largely limited to the "near abroad" – Armenia, Belarus, and Tajikistan – which is not a group the West is particularly concerned with. But it is, more broadly, a significant hit to American foreign policy credibility.
> 
> Coming only days after Secretary of State John Kerry took strong exception to "asinine, "isolationist" views in Congress that were framed as if the United States is a "poor country," a direct admonition from the United States and its key allies was willfully and immediately ignored by the Russian president.
> 
> That will send a message of weakness and brings concerns about American commitment to allies around the world. All of this reinforces the prevailing geopolitical dynamic: we are in a world with a distinct and dangerous lack of global, coordinated leadership.




The key point is: "Russia is a declining power."

We should help it decline, gracefully, into geo-strategic irrelevance ... Mr Bremmer thinks "we" may have pushed too hard in Ukraine, by _actively_ encouraging the pro-Europe forces. 

I any event, the die is now cast and "we" must _do something_ ... see above for some ideas.


Edit: format


----------



## vonGarvin

It would take years to replace Europe's source of gas. The nightclub visiting youth of Europe dont want to wait. They want it now.  And Putin can deliver...for a price. Which is why the EU isn't so sure about sanctions. Putin has all the cards, and there's nothing we can do about it. Nothing.


----------



## Nemo888

We were blatantly trying to pull Ukraine out of Russia's sphere of influence. They openly warned us when they released Nuland's (unencrypted WTF) cell phone intercept. 
“Yats is the guy. He’s got the economic experience, the governing experience. He’s the guy you know. … Yats will need all the help he can get to stave off collapse in the ex-Soviet state. He has warned there is an urgent need for unpopular cutting of subsidies and social payments before Ukraine can improve.”
Arseniy Yatsenyuk was made PM after the coup. We pushed too far and Nuland's, "F*%k the EU," attitude got us more blowback than the State Department expected.

I think pulling Ukraine into NATO this year would be a terrible risk. In 5 years maybe, but currently even seriously talking about it is going to make trouble. Imagine if Russia fermented separatism in Quebec then suggested they to join the Wolf Pack and put in missile defenses. I would send in the troops immediately. Russia may be in decline, but they have not declined sufficiently to make that a wise option.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Technoviking said:
			
		

> It would take years to replace Europe's source of gas. The nightclub visiting youth of Europe dont want to wait. They want it now.  And Putin can deliver...for a price. Which is why the EU isn't so sure about sanctions. Putin has all the cards, and there's nothing we can do about it. Nothing.




 :goodpost:


----------



## tomahawk6

Here are several actions that the US and NATO might take to get Putin's attention.

1.Cancel the G8 meeting
2.Expel Russia from the G8
3.Move NATO troops into Poland and other Eastern European nations and the Baltic states
4.Move ABM missiles into Poland and the Czech Republic
5.Cut off Russian banks access to the EU and Japanese banking facilities


----------



## vonGarvin

Other than the first one, they would only make it worse.


----------



## tomahawk6

Actually it would make people in eastern Europe feel a bit safer.Russia's economy isnt really G8 material anyway.Poland and other former communist countries have been very helpful in the GWOT.Its time to man up.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Technoviking said:
			
		

> Other than the first one, they would only make it worse.




I agree that expelling Russia from the G8 would "only make it worse" but I _suspect_ it, making things worse, might be worth the effort: short term pain for long term gain, etc.

If Russia stops then: fine. If it continues to act aggressively then expel it from the G20, too.

Repeat as necessary with stiffer sanctions.

It's a bit like training a dog, no?


----------



## Edward Campbell

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> Actually it would make people in eastern Europe feel a bit safer.Russia's economy isnt really G8 material anyway.Poland and other former communist countries have been very helpful in the GWOT.Its time to man up.




But, remember the Technoviking's excellent post, just above, about Europe's oil and gas.


----------



## tomahawk6

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> But, remember the Technoviking's excellent post, just above, about Europe's oil and gas.



Europe is Russia's customer and cutting of gas hurts Russia's pocket book at a time where their economy is rather weak.


----------



## Journeyman

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> Europe is Russia's customer and cutting of gas hurts Russia's pocket book at a time where their economy is rather weak.


Russia appears more than willing to 'cut off its nose to spite its face.'  I suspect that it will take the economic hit should it apply the sanctions of cutting off gas to Europe; even the threat of such action is probably already influencing European hesitancy to act in this case.


----------



## Kirkhill

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> Europe is Russia's customer and cutting of gas hurts Russia's pocket book at a time where their economy is rather weak.



What he said.

Yes Russia can gamble that the Europeans will keep buying because it is cold they lack real choice (save for re-opening the coalmines, fracking, re-commissioning and building nuclear plants - all of which take time).

But if Russia cuts off the Gas they cut off their welfare payments and their military reconstruction. 

Equally, it is not just the Euro-Kids that are out Clubbing.  It is also the Russian Kids.   The Pro-Russian mobs in Crimea, Ukraine and Russia are all middle-aged ex-Soviets.  You don't see much evidence of youth on parade.

Russia is not the Soviets of 1982, much less 1967.


----------



## Robert0288

> Russia gives Ukrainian forces deadline to surrender
> 
> Russia's Black Sea Fleet has given forces in Crimea until 5 a.m. Tuesday local time (7 p.m. Monday PST) to surrender or face an all-out assault.
> Source: https://twitter.com/News1130radio


----------



## Kirkhill

recceguy said:
			
		

> You realize that a Cdn BG is but a small pimple on the enemy ops board, right?
> 
> No significant equipment, no significant threat, easily bypassed.........
> 
> In the end, we'll stop crap or provide any kind of deterrent, let alone a political one.



The same could have been said about 4CMBG.... if that were the only force in place.  The same could equally be said about those independent companies of Estonians and Romanians in the "sandbox".

But...

Symbolism matters at times like these, and a Canadian BG doesn't look so bad when all the US has got on the ground in Europe is a Stryker Regiment, an Airborne Brigade Group and a Combat Aviation Brigade.

In addition you have to look at what the Ukrainians, Poles, Romanians etc are willing to do for themselves.


----------



## George Wallace

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> ......when all the US has got on the ground in Europe is a Stryker Regiment, an Airborne Brigade Group and a Combat Aviation Brigade.



The US has returned M1s to Germany.  They do have the capability still to reinforce troops in Europe.


----------



## Robert0288

Further information:
Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10672417/Ukraine-live.html


> 15.25: More on that ultimatum: This from Reuters:
> 
> Russia's Black Sea Fleet has told Ukrainian forces in Crimea to surrender by 5 a.m. (0300 GMT) on Tuesday or face a military assault, Interfax news agency quoted a source in the Ukrainian Defence Ministry as saying.
> 
> The ultimatum, Interfax said, was issued by Alexander Vitko, the fleet's commander.
> 
> The ministry did not immediately confirm the report and there was no immediate comment by the Black Sea Fleet, which has a base in Crimea, where Russian forces are in control.
> 
> "If they do not surrender before 5 a.m. tomorrow, a real assault will be started against units and divisions of the armed forces across Crimea," the agency quoted the ministry source as saying.


----------



## Old Sweat

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> The same could have been said about 4CMBG.... if that were the only force in place.  The same could equally be said about those independent companies of Estonians and Romanians in the "sandbox".
> 
> But...
> 
> Symbolism matters at times like these, and a Canadian BG doesn't look so bad when all the US has got on the ground in Europe is a Stryker Regiment, an Airborne Brigade Group and a Combat Aviation Brigade.
> 
> In addition you have to look at what the Ukrainians, Poles, Romanians etc are willing to do for themselves.



The mere threat of the ASIC should have them quaking in their boots.  >


----------



## tomahawk6

The Russian stock market is down as is the Ruble vs the dollar.

http://news.yahoo.com/russia-hikes-rates-amid-market-carnage-over-ukraine-100455087.html


----------



## Kirkhill

Old Sweat said:
			
		

> The mere threat of the ASIC should have them quaking in their boots.  >



Ouch... That hurt. 

OK - some symbols are less than others.  ASIC probably doesn't qualify as a symbol.  It may qualify as a cymbal - the musical equivalent of one hand clapping.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some of the latest ....


----------



## midget-boyd91

On the breaking news bar at CNN there's reports stating that Russia has given an 11 hour ultimatum for Ukranian forces to leave Crimea, or face a "Military Storm."  The clock is really ticking now.


----------



## Robert0288

The clock just sped up a little.



> *KIEV, Ukraine — Ukraine says Russian forces controlling the strategic region of Crimea are demanding that the crew of two Ukrainian warships must surrender.*Source: http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/ea0b8cefc63c4753af6c356108b51377/EU--Ukraine
> 
> _Russian solders walk as a local resident waves with Russian flag outside of a Ukrainian military base in the village of Perevalne, outside of Simferopol, Ukraine, on Sunday, March 2, 2014. Hundreds of armed men in trucks and armored vehicles surrounded the Ukrainian military base Sunday in Crimea, blocking its soldiers from leaving. (AP Photo/Ivan Sekretarev)
> 
> Ukrainian Defense Ministry spokesman Maksim Prauta said four Russian navy ships were blocking Ukraine's anti-submarine warship Ternopil and the command ship Slavutych in Sevastopol's harbor.
> 
> He said the Russians ordered the crew to surrender within the hour or face Russians storming and seizing the ships and crew._


----------



## Lightguns

The report I got from the Jerusalem Post.  Stated that Ukrainian Police and Military Forces were to surrender their arms and equipment before leaving and to take their families with them.  Sorta voluntary ethnic cleansing.


----------



## Lightguns

Robert0288 said:
			
		

> Source: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26413953
> 
> I think they might be these guys: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ropucha_class_landing_ship
> 
> Capacity from wiki:
> 10 main battle tanks and 200 troops or 12 BTR and 340 troops or 3 main battle tanks, 3 2S9 «Nona-S», 5 MT-LB, 4 army trucks and 313 troops or 500 tons of cargo



OK RCN types, what the average sailing time from the North Sea Fleet home port to Crimea.  With that you have the Russian planning window.  While we watched the Olympics!

Edit:  Someone must have seen that ship leave!  Was the Russian navl incrusion into UK a cover?


----------



## Kat Stevens

Lightguns said:
			
		

> The report I got from the Jerusalem Post.  Stated that Ukrainian Police and Military Forces were to surrender their arms and equipment before leaving and to take their families with them.  Sorta voluntary ethnic cleansing.



What's voluntary about this?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Robert0288 said:
			
		

> Russia gives Ukrainian forces deadline to surrender
> 
> Russia's Black Sea Fleet has given forces in Crimea until 5 a.m. Tuesday local time (7 p.m. Monday PST) to surrender or face an all-out assault.
> Source: https://twitter.com/News1130radio


Black Fleet spox:  Lies!  All lies!


> Russia denies reports that it issued an ultimatum to Ukrainian armed forces in Crimea, the Interfax news agency reports citing the an official of Russia's Black Sea Fleet. The official representative of the Russian Defense Ministry called the information about the ultimatum 'total nonsense'.
> 
> The Russian Black Sea fleet based in Crimea denied Monday there were plans to storm Ukrainian military positions on the peninsula, calling reports of an ultimatum "nonsense," Interfax said.
> 
> "That is complete nonsense," a representative of the fleet was quoted as saying after Ukraine's regional military said it had received an ultimatum to surrender early Tuesday or face attack.
> 
> "We are used to daily accusations about using force against our Ukrainian colleagues," he said. "Efforts to make us clash won't work."
> 
> For now there is no need to deploy the Armed Forces of Russia in Ukraine, State Duma Speaker Sergei Naryshkin has said on Monday, following the Russian Foreign Ministry's statement made earlier in the day that Russia's Black Sea Fleet units currently stationed in Crimea aren’t interfering into the internal events of the Ukrainian politics ....


----------



## Robert0288

Or an ingenious ploy to make them cry wolf.


----------



## pbi

devil39 said:
			
		

> Not a lot of good options here....but sounding a lot like "Peace in our time"  Simplistic, yes....but I can only imagine how the Ukrainian state must feel.
> 
> Granted Adolf Hitler wasn't holding nukes....but he was pulling a very similar move.  I guess we have to believe this time that there is not a larger campaign plan....
> 
> I go back to the stratfor geopolitical analysis of Russia I posted last week....there are certain imperatives.  Crimea won't be the end of this, there will likely be further partition.



I was thinking about Old Neville and his scrap of paper when I wrote this: I was expecting that "Peace in Our Time" would be raised at some point. (Let's not forget though, who declared war on Germany: it wasn't Churchill...)

However, I am a severe skeptic of the old saw that "history always repeats itself". This is an easy thing to say, and sometimes saves us from doing much analysis, just because some particular event seems to resemble an earlier one, and leads us to think that we should always have exactly the same response. 

If we follow that logic, why didn't we go to war over the Russian invasion of Hungary, or the invasion of Czechoslovakia? Or Georgia?

I guess Neville C. and I share one thing in common: we want to know exactly what it is in this situation that will be worth the lives of our fellow citizens. 

We must be careful about making military threats if we don't mean to back them up. The Russians may call the bluff (Putin, who has created this "Peter The Great/Stalin/movie hero" persona for Russian popular consumption, may feel he has no choice if he is to stay in power)

And, if we do mean to back these threats up, where is the line to be drawn, and just where does that lead us? Isn't an analysis of risk versus gain a basic part of military planning, as opposed to "_Draw Sabres_!"?

If Canadians are going to die, (which is where the threat of military force ultimately leads) what will that be for, and what will it change?


----------



## JesseWZ

What happens when the "mob" mentality of Pro-Soviet or Pro-Ukranian civilians begin to control the message and anger bubbles to the surface...

Not to sound tin-foil hat like, but it wouldn't surprise me if one side or the other has persons who want to fight.


----------



## pbi

JesseWZ said:
			
		

> What happens when the "mob" mentality of Pro-Soviet or Pro-Ukranian civilians begin to control the message and anger bubbles to the surface...
> 
> Not to sound tin-foil hat like, but it wouldn't surprise me if one side or the other has persons who want to fight.



In that world of disinformation and factions upon factions, it might just suit somebody's interests to provoke the Ukrainian forces into a violent pre-emptive reaction, even if it was only a single local commander who acted. Once triggers start getting pulled, things can go right out of control. That single isolated local reaction might be all the "justification" that somebody wants. 

The question is who, and justification for what?


----------



## CougarKing

The Ukranian Navy Admiral who defected came back to his base to convince the rest of the Navy defect as well.

In response, the rest of the Navy sailors stood side by side and sang the Ukranian National Anthem in his face.

Those are some brave men... and NATO better get it's damn act together or those men are going to spill their blood.

quote from the _Associated Press via Canada's National Post_:



> *Surrender or ‘face storm,’ Russia tells Ukraine as Duma prepares a bill to annex Crimea*
> 
> 
> David McHugh And Dalton Bennet, Associated Press | March 3, 2014 8:30 AM ET
> More from Associated Press
> 
> (-SNIPPED)
> 
> The head of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet Aleksander Vitko set the deadline and threatened an attack “across Crimea,” reported Russian Interfax, quoting the Ukrainian Interior Ministry. The Ukrainian navy was given until 7 p.m. local time Monday to surrender and Ukrainian troops stationed on Crimea’s mainland until 5 a.m. Tuesday.
> 
> Interim president Oleksandr Turchynov said Russia gave Ukraine a similar ultimatum two days earlier, with the deadline of 5 a.m. on March 2. “They didn’t start storming the bases on 5 a.m., but the situation is still tense there,” he said.
> 
> In Sevastolpol, two senior Ukrainian naval commanders — one who only hours earlier had defected to the pro-Russian government in Crimea — competed for the loyalties of their sailors in an extraordinary standoff Monday.
> 
> *The sailors erupted into a rendition of the national anthem Monday after rejecting a plea from Rear Admiral Denis Berezovsky to defect with him to the Pro-Russian Crimean government.*
> 
> (...END EXCERPT)


----------



## Edward Campbell

pbi said:
			
		

> I was thinking about Old Neville and his scrap of paper when I wrote this: I was expecting that "Peace in Our Time" would be raised at some point. (Let's not forget though, who declared war on Germany: it wasn't Churchill...)
> 
> However, I am a severe skeptic of the old saw that "history always repeats itself". This is an easy thing to say, and sometimes saves us from doing much analysis, just because some particular event seems to resemble an earlier one, and leads us to think that we should always have exactly the same response.
> 
> If we follow that logic, why didn't we go to war over the Russian invasion of Hungary, or the invasion of Czechoslovakia? Or Georgia?
> 
> I guess Neville C. and I share one thing in common: we want to know exactly what it is in this situation that will be worth the lives of our fellow citizens.
> 
> We must be careful about making military threats if we don't mean to back them up. The Russians may call the bluff (Putin, who has created this "Peter The Great/Stalin/movie hero" persona for Russian popular consumption, may feel he has no choice if he is to stay in power)
> 
> And, if we do mean to back these threats up, where is the line to be drawn, and just where does that lead us? Isn't an analysis of risk versus gain a basic part of military planning, as opposed to "_Draw Sabres_!"?
> 
> If Canadians are going to die, (which is where the threat of military force ultimately leads) what will that be for, and what will it change?




Exactly! There are good, solid, valid reasons to send my son and our friends and colleagues into battle, again ... but this time against a near peer foe. As things stand, I don't *believe* Ukraine provides such a reason. I'm not sure that a full scale Russian attack on and conquest of Ukraine would be enough. Hungary, in 1956 and Czechoslovakia, in 1968, weren't enough, nor was Poland in 1988.

My guess, maybe just hope, is that Russia will be satisfied with a fully Russian Crimea and a separate, dependent puppet state in what is now South-Eastern Ukraine. I'm not sure Russia really wants all of Ukraine: why beg for a strong, militant, separatist problem where none needs to exist.

If that's the case, if Ukraine can be, peacefully, albeit unwillingly dismembered, then I think scolding from the sidelines and _economic_ retaliation are sufficient.  

I am willing to restart the cold war.

I think another cold war will be enough to expose Russia for the backward, shambling, rattletrap of a nation-state it really is. It can and probably will collapse into a bloody, agonizing civil war and eventual partition into a handful of European, Eurasian and Asian states ~ and we should stand aside while that happens.

President Putin is a thug. There is no point in being nice, even polite to him. Russia is a farce. It is a big and well armed farce (even if I doubt that all (not even much) of  its equipment actually works) but we can defeat it economically. If Russia tries to compete with the capitalist West its people will either eat grass or, far more likely, rebel and murder their rulers.


----------



## Journeyman

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> ... and NATO better get it's damn act together or those men are going to spill their blood.


You do know that Ukraine isn't a NATO member, right?


----------



## MilEME09

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> The Ukranian Navy Admiral who defected came back to his base to convince the rest of the Navy defect as well.
> 
> In response, the rest of the Navy sailors stood side by side and sang the Ukranian National Anthem in his face.
> 
> Those are some brave men... and NATO better get it's damn act together or those men are going to spill their blood.
> 
> quote from the _Associated Press via Canada's National Post_:



Brave is definitely a word i would use, I am sure they are all aware of the situation they face if Russia attacks, that said even if NATO as a whole does nothing maybe countries like Poland might take action on their own to supply equipment and ammo to the Ukrainian Military


----------



## CougarKing

Journeyman said:
			
		

> You do know that Ukraine isn't a NATO member, right?



Well aware they are not.  Still, didn't the US and the UK sign the Budapest Memorandum that gives a security guarantee to Ukraine in return for Kiev giving up its nuclear weapons back in the late 1990s?


----------



## Journeyman

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> Well aware they are not.  Still, didn't the US and the UK sign the Budapest Memorandum that gives a security guarantee to Ukraine in return for Kiev giving up its nuclear weapons back in the late 1990s?


Yep....and there are 26 other countries in NATO who signed no such agreement, and I'd just as soon you not commit us to a war that's not our problem, thanks.


----------



## MilEME09

Source Via NATO's facebook page



> The North Atlantic Council, which includes the ambassadors of all 28 NATO Allies, will meet on Tuesday 4 March, following a request by Poland under article 4 of NATO's founding Washington Treaty.
> 
> Under article 4 of the Treaty, any Ally can request consultations whenever, in the opinion of any of them, their territorial integrity, political independence or security is threatened.
> 
> The developments in and around Ukraine are seen to constitute a threat to neighboring Allied countries and having direct and serious implications for the security and stability of the Euro-Atlantic area.



http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/news_107711.htm


----------



## Journeyman

Yes, and Article 4 only commits us to "consultations." Given that the Russians would have to get through about 1500 km of Ukrainian real estate to even reach the Polish border, I suspect this may be a bit of a flinch on their part, and still not sufficient justification for NATO to "get it's damn act together."


----------



## Bird_Gunner45

daftandbarmy said:
			
		

> Well, unfortunately, I'd argue that it's been at least 30 years since we even practised with all those assets at the right level i.e., armoured division and higher, so it's a bit of a moot point anyway AFAIC.



It's a moot point up until 1 Mi-24 destroys the combat team.  Just because it's happened for 30 years doesn't make it right, or any less foolish today than it was 30 years ago.


----------



## MilEME09

Bird_Gunner45 said:
			
		

> It's a moot point up until 1 Mi-24 destroys the combat team.  Just because it's happened for 30 years doesn't make it right, or any less foolish today than it was 30 years ago.



Dont worry we have those C-7 anti-aircraft drills! that will save said combat team


----------



## a_majoor

The economic fallout of this is already starting to affect Russia, but of course everyone else is being pulled by the undertow. One can only hope that the Russians do receive their well deserved just desserts as capital flows from the country and the economy becomes ever more pinched (and adding a greater or lesser number of Ethnic Russians with all their cultural attitudes and traits is not exactly what I would call an economic gain for Russia either). 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-03/russian-stocks-crash-central-bank-scrambles-hikes-rates-most-1998-default



> *Russian Stocks Crash As Central Bank Scrambles, Hikes Rates Most Since 1998 Default*
> Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/03/2014 08:25 -0500
> 
> Following a 150bps rate hike by the central bank - the largest since the 1998 default -desperate to halt capital outflows and a collapsing currency, Russian stocks have crashed 11% led by some of the country's largest banks. USDRUB rose to just shy of 37 - the weakest RUB rate on record - but rallied back a little on the rate hike but the MICEX stock index tumbled 11% to almost 2-year lows with Sberbank (Russia's largest bank) down 17% and VTB (2nd largest bank) down 20%. Between the threat of economic sanctions from the West and simple risk-aversion-based capital flight, as one analyst noted, "uncertainty risks a further escalation in domestic capital outflow."
> 
> MICEX is down 11% today alone...
> 
> Ruble at record lows against the USD...
> 
> It was the biggest increase in a Russian benchmark rate since June 1998, less than two months before Russia defaulted on domestic sovereign bonds and devalued the currency. The refinancing rate used to be the central bank’s main reference.
> 
> The Banks have been battered...
> 
> •Sberbank, Russia’s biggest bank, drops 17%, loses most since 2008
> •VTB, Russia’s second-bigest lender, tumbles 20%
> •Bank St. Petersburg falls 16%
> •Bank Vozrozhdenie declines 10%
> •Nomos Bank slides 12%
> 
> European and U.S. leaders have threatened sanctions against Russia, creating risks that economic growth will stall, demand for the country’s assets will dry up and a selloff in the currency will deepen. "There is a risk of international backlash against Russia at a time when the economy faces an increasing need for foreign capital inflows... This uncertainty risks a further escalation in domestic capital outflow."
> 
> Around the world, stock markets are tumbling with Europe down around 2% - almost its largest drop in 7 months; and Japan down 600 from Friday's highs.


----------



## x_para76

A friend of mine is working over in the Ukraine at the moment and just sent a message saying that the timings have been moved from 0500L to 0300L for the Russian assault, and that local civil defence (pro russian) have just attacked a ukrainain naval base in svestopol.


----------



## ArmyGuy99

Interesting photos, I bet they wished they had kept them now.  Hindsight is always 20/20.

Shared with the usual provisions, 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2572149/Stunning-images-huge-abandoned-tank-graveyard-Ukraine-machines-come-retirement-tensions-Russia-continue-escalate.html




> These incredible photographs show a huge tank graveyard in the Ukraine - home to hundreds of the abandoned vehicles which the country may desperately need if tensions with Russia continue to escalate.
> Filled with rows upon rows of slowly rusting relics, the once deadly war machines now lie dormant in a secret depot in the city of Kharkiv in the Slobozhanshchyna region of eastern Ukraine - just 20 miles from the border with Russia.
> Despite it being heavily guarded, photographer Pavel Itkin, 18, was able to sneak into the plant and spent several hours taking photographs.
> 
> Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2572149/Stunning-images-huge-abandoned-tank-graveyard-Ukraine-machines-come-retirement-tensions-Russia-continue-escalate.html#ixzz2uwLiX1ej
> Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook


----------



## vonGarvin

This whole thing is a mess, and it's none of our business.

The first mistake was to side with protesters who were opposing a guy who wanted to make Ukraine a bit friendlier with Russia than with the EU.  Why did we side with them?  Because in spite of what many may think, Russia is and always was a geopolitical adversary.  Not enemy, but competition, if you will.  Yanukovich may be corrupt or whatever, but that doesn't matter: he was elected in fair elections.  
Consider the alternate, in a different land.  Say in the US for example.  "Obamacare" is highly unpopular.  Its roll out was a disaster, and even Democrat lawmakers were hesitant to approve it.  Imagine, if you will, protests against it, and Obama himself, went violent in Washington.  Would that give anyone anywhere the right to say that he was no longer the legitimate president of the United States, just because he was unpopular, or instituted an unpopular program?

I really am worried by the trend that "Mob Rule = Democratic Action".  That's not democracy.  That's Anarchy rules.  He with the loudest mouth wins?  I'm sorry, but if I were Russia, I'd be rather worried about places such as e.g. Crimea, the Don Basin, Kharkiv, etc.  Let's not forget that even in the recent "Euromaidan" protests, those parts of Ukraine were all too happy to remain closer to Russia than to the EU.  And the worst part is that Tymoschenko has been released from prison after the laws were changed to make her embezzlement actions legal.  And who changed the laws?  The self-appointed "president" of Ukraine.

So, all this to say: stay out of Ukraine.  Poland, et al have nothing to worry about, because Russia has no desires to be stuck in the eastern half of Central Europe again. And if it _did_ come to blows, I'm afraid that in spite of the well-deserved shabby reputation of the Russian military, there could be ~1000 tanks in Paris by the end of next week.

Meanwhile, Canada would be working out plans to deploy the Theatre Activation Team, and setting up an HLTA plan...


----------



## Edward Campbell

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> This is unlikely to be a "win-win" for Russia.
> 
> While I _accept_ that Russia is, mainly, just trying to maintain the _status quo ante_, and I understand their _strategic_ imperative to do that, their aggression must not be rewarded.
> 
> First: we, the US led West, must tell President Putin that Western Ukraine is off limits. While we can/will _accept_ Russia's claim to Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, the rest of Ukraine must be allowed to decide its own future in its own way, without Russian pressure. That _may_ require that we, the US led West, actually station troops, temporarily, in Ukraine. (One of my young, serving, friends has considerable experience in Ukraine and has told me that we and the Ukrainians can work together in reasonably good order.)
> 
> Second: Russia must pay, economically, for this. The _ruble_ is already in trouble, Russia is now selling junk bonds on the world markets (7+% this morning.). We need to keep it that way. They *must* be expelled from the G8 and the G20, the US led West has enough power to do that, even though one or to G20 members _may_ object. (My guess is that China will not object to punishing Russia for this.)
> 
> Third: the EU must fast track Ukraine into the EU.
> 
> Fourth: NATO should invited Ukraine to join. (I remain convinced that an enlarged NATO is a 'weaker' NATO but it is, now, politically important to 'defend' Eastern Europe.)




But, according to a report in today's _Globe and Mail_ consunsus on this measure may be difficult, even impossible, because Germany ~ which has many complex political and economic dealings and ties with Russia ~ objects. Part of the reason, is, almost certainly, provided by the Technoviking:



			
				Technoviking said:
			
		

> It would take years to replace Europe's source of gas. The nightclub visiting youth of Europe dont want to wait. They want it now.  And Putin can deliver...for a price. Which is why the EU isn't so sure about sanctions. Putin has all the cards, and there's nothing we can do about it. Nothing.



But Germany's concerns are, I think, deeper than that. Germany remains attracted to its own _vision_: _Mitteleuropa_.







Now Ukraine is not part of _Mitteleuropa_ but it is one of the _marches_ that separates Germanic _Mitteleuropa_ from Slavic Eastern Europe (or Western Eurasia if you prefer). Germany needs Russia to anchor Eastern Europe while it, Germany, recreates Europe by shifting the main axis of power from London-Paris-Berlin to Berlin. 

I don't suggest this is a conscious German policy, but I do think it underlies much of Germany's world view.


----------



## blacktriangle

Technoviking said:
			
		

> And if it _did_ come to blows, I'm afraid that in spite of the well-deserved shabby reputation of the Russian military, there could be ~1000 tanks in Paris by the end of next week.
> 
> Meanwhile, Canada would be working out plans to deploy the Theatre Activation Team, and setting up an HLTA plan...



Come on! We got this! Small arms AA drills and HLTA, what could possibly go wrong? We will be back for summer block leave!


----------



## Nemo888

Technoviking said:
			
		

> This whole thing is a mess, and it's none of our business.
> 
> The first mistake was to side with protesters who were opposing a guy who wanted to make Ukraine a bit friendlier with Russia than with the EU.  Why did we side with them?  Because in spite of what many may think, Russia is and always was a geopolitical adversary.  Not enemy, but competition, if you will.  Yanukovich may be corrupt or whatever, but that doesn't matter: he was elected in fair elections.
> Consider the alternate, in a different land.  Say in the US for example.  "Obamacare" is highly unpopular.  Its roll out was a disaster, and even Democrat lawmakers were hesitant to approve it.  Imagine, if you will, protests against it, and Obama himself, went violent in Washington.  Would that give anyone anywhere the right to say that he was no longer the legitimate president of the United States, just because he was unpopular, or instituted an unpopular program?
> 
> I really am worried by the trend that "Mob Rule = Democratic Action".  That's not democracy.  That's Anarchy rules.  He with the loudest mouth wins?  I'm sorry, but if I were Russia, I'd be rather worried about places such as e.g. Crimea, the Don Basin, Kharkiv, etc.  Let's not forget that even in the recent "Euromaidan" protests, those parts of Ukraine were all too happy to remain closer to Russia than to the EU.  And the worst part is that Tymoschenko has been released from prison after the laws were changed to make her embezzlement actions legal.  And who changed the laws?  The self-appointed "president" of Ukraine.



From the Maidan on the ousting of Yanukovich prior to snipers murdering 84 protesters. It is perhaps a bit more nuanced and by their own admission other than getting rid of Yanukovitch they did not have many shared goals;


> So, there is always a large part of population which hates the current president and they only need a trigger to start protesting against him (especially since Kyiv, the capital, is in the “opposition” part). This time there was a trigger: an EU hysteria provoked by the government itself! For the whole year 2013 they were constantly talking about how Ukraine is going to sign that agreement with the EU. They’ve roused the expectations of the “pro-European” part of the population, and then, when suddenly they made a U-turn, people were extremely frustrated and angry. That was the initial impulse.
> 
> But, obviously, there are very real reasons for people to hate the government, too. When Yanukovych became president in 2010, he started pushing for unpopular neo-liberal steps. The natural gas tariffs were growing; the government launched medical reform which will eventually lead to closure of many medical institutions and to introducing the universal medical insurance instead of the unconditional coverage; they pushed through extremely unpopular pension reform (raising pension age for women) against the will of more than 90% of population; there was an attempt at passing the new Labour Code which would seriously affect workers’ rights; the railway is being corporatized; finally, they passed a new Tax Code which hit small business. But eventually this assault wasn’t very successful, and the government had to back off. The tariffs of natural gas, electricity, heating, water are frozen at a level which is one of the lowest in Europe and ex-USSR; the Labour Code is buried in the parliament; the next stage of the pension reform (introducing compulsory pension saving plans instead of the solidarity system) is halted. They saw they can’t move on with such low levels of support. But still, the welfare of the working classes, as well as the general state of the economy leaves much to be desired, and people have all legitimate reasons to demand better living standards. Sadly, these grievances are dressed in the false consciousness of nationalism.
> 
> Finally, there’s one more important detail. Since 2010, Viktor Yanukovych, who had initially been just a puppet of powerful oligarchs, has become an ambitious businessman himself. His elder son has accumulated vast powers; “The Family” occupied important positions in the government, monopolized control over capital flows, and started fighting with Rinat Akhmetov, Dmitry Firtash and other oligarchs who had been their sponsors previously. Naturally, the traditional oligarchic clans didn’t like this, so the current protest has also an elite dimension.


http://avtonomia.net/2014/02/20/maidan-contradictions-interview-ukrainian-revolutionary-syndicalist/


----------



## Bird_Gunner45

Technoviking said:
			
		

> This whole thing is a mess, and it's none of our business.
> 
> The first mistake was to side with protesters who were opposing a guy who wanted to make Ukraine a bit friendlier with Russia than with the EU.  Why did we side with them?  Because in spite of what many may think, Russia is and always was a geopolitical adversary.  Not enemy, but competition, if you will.  Yanukovich may be corrupt or whatever, but that doesn't matter: he was elected in fair elections.
> Consider the alternate, in a different land.  Say in the US for example.  "Obamacare" is highly unpopular.  Its roll out was a disaster, and even Democrat lawmakers were hesitant to approve it.  Imagine, if you will, protests against it, and Obama himself, went violent in Washington.  Would that give anyone anywhere the right to say that he was no longer the legitimate president of the United States, just because he was unpopular, or instituted an unpopular program?
> 
> I really am worried by the trend that "Mob Rule = Democratic Action".  That's not democracy.  That's Anarchy rules.  He with the loudest mouth wins?  I'm sorry, but if I were Russia, I'd be rather worried about places such as e.g. Crimea, the Don Basin, Kharkiv, etc.  Let's not forget that even in the recent "Euromaidan" protests, those parts of Ukraine were all too happy to remain closer to Russia than to the EU.  And the worst part is that Tymoschenko has been released from prison after the laws were changed to make her embezzlement actions legal.  And who changed the laws?  The self-appointed "president" of Ukraine.
> 
> So, all this to say: stay out of Ukraine.  Poland, et al have nothing to worry about, because Russia has no desires to be stuck in the eastern half of Central Europe again. And if it _did_ come to blows, I'm afraid that in spite of the well-deserved shabby reputation of the Russian military, there could be ~1000 tanks in Paris by the end of next week.
> 
> Meanwhile, Canada would be working out plans to deploy the Theatre Activation Team, and setting up an HLTA plan...



I agree with your statements on the apparent "righteousness" of protestors... Another example would be the Russians seeing native protests in Canada and deciding to intervene on behalf of the natives.  Canadians understanding of politics in CANADA is weak at best.  our understanding of a situation like that in Ukraine is beyond a level in which we can make a real educated decision on the matter outside of "Russians are bad, so they must be doing something bad!".  The Ukrainian people have no historical love loss for the Russians, and vice versa.  Also, no one knows that the AIM of the Russians intervention is.  Is it the start of a larger endgame, or are they simply just really trying to protect Russians and Russian political interests? We dont know.

As for the HLTA plan... someone should let the Russians know that we decided in the FSE that we'd never again fight an opponent that could put more than a Coy in opposition so that they fight the war that we want them to fight.  Doing otherwise would be unsporting!


----------



## CougarKing

Poland has invoked Article 4  of the NATO charter for fear of threats to its security and border. 

Other countries that lie close to Ukraine are also in consultation.

Poland Invokes Article 4

Plus, an update on those surrounded Ukrainian sailors who have been offered an ultimatum by Russia:

Military.com



> *Russian Admiral Orders Ukraine Ships to Surrender*
> 
> Russian forces backed up an ultimatum issued Monday to Ukrainian sailors in the Crimea to surrender and give up their ships or face attack, Ukrainian military spokesmen said.
> 
> The ultimatum with a deadline of early Tuesday morning followed a dramatic confrontation in which* Ukrainian sailors at a Crimean base surrounded by Russian troops pledged their allegiance to Ukraine and rejected pleas to defect from renegade Ukrainian Rear Adm. Denis Berezovsky.
> *
> Four ships from Russia's Black Sea fleet were blocking the Ukrainian anti-submarine warship Ternopil and the command ship Slavutych from leaving dock in Crimea's Sevastopol harbor following the demand to defect from Crimean Regional Prime Minister Sergey Aksyonov, a Moscow ally, the Associated Press reported.
> 
> There were no immediate reports of clashes between Ukrainians loyal to the new government in Kiev and Russian forces in Crimea. However, Aksyonov declared the creation of "Crimea's Naval Forces" and said that Berezovsky was the naval chief.
> 
> "The Republic will have its own Navy, which will be commanded by Rear Adm. Berezovsky," Aksyonov told reporters.
> 
> (...EDITED/END EXCERPT)


----------



## tomahawk6

The Ukrainians should just scuttle their boats at least keep them out of Russian hands.


----------



## Journeyman

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> Poland has invoked Article 4  of the NATO charter for fear of threats to its security and border.



If only some people would read more, mindlessly cut & paste less.  Yep, more than 5 hours ago:





			
				MilEME09 said:
			
		

> The North Atlantic Council, which includes the ambassadors of all 28 NATO Allies, will meet on Tuesday 4 March, following *a request by Poland under article 4* of NATO's founding Washington Treaty.
> http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/news_107711.htm




And in other breaking 'news'.....


> *Ukrainian-Russian Tensions Dividing U.S. Citizens Along Ignorant, Apathetic Lines*
> 
> WASHINGTON—According to a poll released Monday by the Pew Research Center, the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine has left Americans sharply and bitterly divided along ignorant and apathetic lines, with the nation’s citizenry evenly split between grossly misinformed and wholly indifferent factions.


----------



## Journeyman

And the reality of a 'unified' League of Nations United Nations NATO response is summed up in this recent StratforTM post



> .....Washington will need to take into account the concerns of its European allies, who are not interested in opening themselves up to a backlash from the Russians while the Americans sit comfortably an ocean away. While the United States spent Monday vowing sanctions against Russia, the French government said it has no intention of canceling its military agreements with Moscow.
> 
> Meanwhile, British Prime Minister David Cameron, who has been one of the strongest European critics against Russia, said that the United Kingdom would not support trade sanctions or close London's financial center to Russians.
> 
> Germany is avoiding sanctions talk altogether and prioritizing direct negotiations with the Russians over Ukraine. Any meaningful sanctions effort by the United States would likely be a lonely one.


Yep.  Done deal.  Well played Putin.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Much chatter in the media this morning, including from Julia Ioffe, whose take on Russia's/Putin's motive I share, about Putin "tap dancing" around several issues ~ trying, Ms Ioffe says, to keep all his options open even as he ditches (former? deposed? absentee?) President Viktor Yanukovych as a political liability.

One wonders if Russian business interests have gotten through to him ...


----------



## Old Sweat

CNN just reported "Warning shots fired in the [sic] Ukraine."


----------



## Old Sweat

Old Sweat said:
			
		

> CNN just reported "Warning shots fired in the [sic] Ukraine."



No follow up 60 minutes later. False alarm?


----------



## SARgirl

Ukraine: Russian troops fire 'warning shots' at Crimea airbase
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10675146/Ukraine-Russian-troops-fire-warning-shots-at-Crimea-airbase.html
and
http://news.sky.com/story/1220477/ukraine-russian-troops-fire-warning-shots


----------



## observor 69

PBS NEWSHOUR interview with an academia cold war expert and my idol at the time "Stephen Cohen."
Very illuminating on the reality of how we got to this state of affairs.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/debating-moscows-military-moves-crimea/


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Journeyman said:
			
		

> If only some people would read more, mindlessly cut & paste less.  Yep, more than 5 hours ago:
> 
> And in other breaking 'news'.....



Easy there JM............we're all on the same side here.


----------



## Kirkhill

Baden Guy said:
			
		

> PBS NEWSHOUR interview with an academia cold war expert and my idol at the time "Stephen Cohen."
> Very illuminating on the reality of how we got to this state of affairs.
> 
> http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/debating-moscows-military-moves-crimea/



Problem for Mr. Cohen:

The discussion is not just between the Kremlin and the Whitehouse as it was in his day.

Today the Ukrainians in the street also get a say.  As do the Poles, Hungarians, Czechs, Balts, Romanians, and yes, even the Scandinavians.  All of whom have a much better sense of Russian realities than any of us over here.


----------



## CougarKing

As reported by the UK's TELEGRAPH, Russian troops at the rest of Eastern Ukraine's borders return to base after their exercises.

Furthermore,  here's a TIME article on why Putin is already starting to lose more than his gains in Crimea, aside from the economic fallout already reported by Thucydides on the previous page: 

Time.com



> *4 Reasons Putin Is Already Losing in Ukraine*
> Time.com
> 
> By Simon Shuster / Simferopol
> 
> (...)- SNIPPED/EDITED
> 
> *At home, this intervention looks to be one of the most unpopular decisions Putin has ever made.* The Kremlin’s own pollster released a survey on Monday that showed 73% of Russians reject it. In phrasing its question posed in early February to 1,600 respondents across the country, the state-funded sociologists at WCIOM were clearly trying to get as much support for the intervention as possible: “Should Russia react to the overthrow of the legally elected authorities in Ukraine?” they asked. Only 15% said yes — hardly a national consensus.
> 
> That seems astounding in light of all the brainwashing Russians have faced on the issue of Ukraine. For weeks, the Kremlin’s effective monopoly on television news has been sounding the alarm over Ukraine. Its revolution, they claimed, is the result of an American alliance with Nazis intended to weaken Russia. And still, nearly three-quarters of the population oppose a Russian “reaction” of any kind, let alone a Russian military occupation like they are now watching unfold in Crimea. The 2008 invasion of Georgia had much broader support, because Georgia is not Ukraine. Ukraine is a nation of Slavs with deep cultural and historical ties to Russia. Most Russians have at least some family or friends living in Ukraine, and the idea of a fratricidal war between the two largest Slavic nations in the world evokes a kind of horror that no Kremlin whitewash can calm.
> 
> Indeed, Monday’s survey suggests that the influence of Putin’s television channels is breaking down. The blatant misinformation and demagoguery on Russian television coverage of Ukraine seems to have pushed Russians to go online for their information. And as for those who still have no Internet connection, they could simply have picked up the phone and called their panicked friends and relatives in Ukraine.
> 
> So what about Russia’s nationalists? The war-drum thumping Liberal Democratic party, a right-wing puppet of the Kremlin, has been screaming for Russia to send in the tanks. On Feb. 28, as troops began appearing on the streets of Crimea, the leader of that party, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, was on the scene handing out wads of cash to a cheering crowd of locals in the city of Sevastopol, home of Russia’s Black Sea fleet. “Give it to the women, the old maids, the pregnant, the lonely, the divorced,” he told the crowd from atop a chair. “Russia is rich. We’ll give everybody everything.” But in Monday’s survey, 82% of his party’s loyalists rejected any such generosity. Even the adherents of the Communist Party, who tend to feel entitled to all of Russia’s former Soviet domains, said with a broad majority – 62% – that Russia should not jump into Ukraine’s internal crisis.
> 
> That does not necessarily mean Putin will face an uprising at home. So far, the anti-war protests in Moscow have looked almost pathetically temperate. But sociologists have been saying for years that Putin’s core electorate is dwindling. What underpins his popularity – roughly 60% approved of his rule before this crisis started – is a total lack of viable alternatives to Putin’s rule. But this decision is sure to eat away at the passive mass of his supporters, especially in Russia’s biggest cities.
> 
> In Monday’s survey, 30% of respondents from Moscow and St. Petersburg said that Russia could see massive political protests of the kind that overthrew the Ukrainian government last month. Putin’s only means of forestalling that kind of unrest is to crack down hard and early. So on Feb. 28, Russia’s most prominent opposition activist Alexei Navalny was put under house arrest less than six months after he won 30% of the vote in the Moscow mayoral race. Expect more of the same if the opposition to Putin’s intervention starts to find its voice.
> 
> *
> The economic impact on Russia is already staggering.* When markets opened on Monday morning, investors got their first chance to react to the Russian intervention in Ukraine over the weekend, and as a result, the key Russian stock indexes tanked by more than 10%. That amounts to almost $60 billion in stock value wiped out in the course of a day, more than Russia spent preparing for last month’s Winter Olympic Games in Sochi. The state-controlled natural gas monopoly Gazprom, which accounts for roughly a quarter of Russian tax revenues, lost $15 billion in market value in one day – incidentally the same amount of money Russia promised to the teetering regime in Ukraine in December and then revoked in January as the revolution took hold.
> 
> The value of the Russian currency meanwhile dropped against the dollar to its lowest point on record, and the Russian central bank spent $10 billion on the foreign exchange markets trying to prop it up. “This has to fundamentally change the way investors and ratings agencies view Russia,” said Timothy Ash, head of emerging market research at Standard Bank. At a time when Russia’s economic growth was already stagnating, “This latest military adventure will increase capital flight, weaken Russian asset prices, slow investment and economic activity and growth. Western financial sanctions on Russia will hurt further,” Ash told the Wall Street Journal.
> 
> *Even Russia’s closest allies want no part of this. * The oil-rich state of Kazakhstan, the most important member of every regional alliance Russia has going in the former Soviet space, put out a damning statement on Monday, marking the first time its leaders have ever turned against Russia on such a major strategic issue: “Kazakhstan expresses deep concern over the developments in Ukraine,” the Foreign Ministry said. “Kazakhstan calls on all sides to stop the use of force in the resolution of this situation.”
> 
> (...)
> 
> *Russia’s isolation from the West will deepen dramatically.* In June, Putin was planning to welcome the leaders of the G8, a club of western powers (plus Japan), in the Russian resort city of Sochi. But on Sunday, all of them announced they had halted their preparations for attending the summit in protest at Russia’s intervention in Ukraine. So much for Putin’s hard-fought seat at the table with the leaders of the western world.
> 
> (EDITED)


----------



## Robert0288

Well just as things where starting to calm down a little bit.


> *Russia test-fires ICBM amid tension over Ukraine*
> Source: http://www.trust.org/item/20140304184241-xtvm6
> 
> _MOSCOW, March 4 (Reuters) - Russia said it had successfully test-fired an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) on Tuesday, with tensions high over its seizure of control in the Crimea and its threat to send more forces to its neighbour Ukraine.
> 
> The Strategic Rocket Forces launched an RS-12M Topol missile from the southerly Astrakhan region near the Caspian Sea and the dummy warhead hit its target at a proving ground in Kazakhstan, the state-run news agency RIA cited Defence Ministry spokesman Igor Yegorov as saying._


----------



## Old Sweat

Robert0288 said:
			
		

> Well just as things where starting to calm down a little bit.



Not a real big deal as the Americans had been alerted previously as per treaty. If it had been cancelled, that might have been cause for concern and speculation.


----------



## KerryBlue

http://www.thetrumpet.com/article/11421.18.0.0/world/military/russia-deploys-troops-near-polish-and-lithuanian-borders





> Russia Deploys Troops Near Polish and Lithuanian Borders
> 
> 
> More than 3,500 Russian soldiers have started tactical maneuvers on the Baltic coast of the Kaliningrad region near the borders of Poland and Lithuania, Polish Radio reported on March 3.
> 
> The unexpected, large-scale military drills began after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a snap inspection of the forces stationed there. In addition to the troops, the exercises involve more than 450 units of military hardware, including BMP-2 armored carriers, T-72 tanks and self-propelled artillery installations. Troops are training for both offensive and defensive operations.



Russia really seems to be flexing its military muscle near any ex-soviet states that have made their intentions to protect Ukrainian Sovereignty. NATO really does need to start flexing their muscles or Russia will just keep steam rolling through Ukraine.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

And just what exactly should NATO do?  Please explain/elaborate.


----------



## MilEME09

Eye In The Sky said:
			
		

> And just what exactly should NATO do?  Please explain/elaborate.



While Dangerous NATO could do some posturing of it's own, for example if Patriots were set up along the polish-Romanian-Ukrainian Border Area's It would position NATO to no fly zone Ukraine. They could move ships into the Black Sea. Exercises in Poland or Romania. Issue is these would also be a escalation on NATO's part and Russia would more then happily go tit for tat with NATO.


----------



## Privateer

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> NATO ... could move ships into the Black Sea...



... and then ground them (USS Taylor).  :not-again:


----------



## MilEME09

Privateer said:
			
		

> ... and then ground them (USS Taylor).  :not-again:



I never said they had to move back out after


----------



## KerryBlue

Eye In The Sky said:
			
		

> And just what exactly should NATO do?  Please explain/elaborate.



To be completely honest with you I have no idea, but as a Ukrainian Canadian with the family farm and members still in the mother country this is very near and dear to my heart. My experience with military/world politics is limited to 4 university courses, so anything I say will more then likely be shot down by you more senior and experienced members here. But I will try to add something constructive. 

http://www.stripes.com/news/american-tanks-return-to-europe-after-brief-leave-1.264910

The article above outlines that American armour has been returned to Germany after a brief hiatus. Perhaps using the newly positioned stocks they could begin running large scale exercises coupled with the Stryker BDE there, to flex their own military muscle. As Ukraine and Poland have both called upon NATO to help them in their situation, perhaps a joint exercise could be run with Poland, the USA, and Ukraine in the western regions of Ukraine to flex their own military muscle. Could that escalate the situation? Yes. But by keeping the troops in the pro-EU side of the Ukraine and far away from the Russian military it may be enough of a show of force by NATO to run a exercise like that, that Russia may back down. Or perhaps NATO sends in military advisors a la MACV-SOG style to the regions and Ukrainian military bases in the south which are being hotly contested to ensure no shooting breaks out between the Ukraine forces and the occupying Russian forces.

My  :2c: I'm sure you senior members will poke my theory full of holes.


----------



## Edward Campbell

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Much chatter in the media this morning, including from Julia Ioffe, whose take on Russia's/Putin's motive I share, about Putin "tap dancing" around several issues ~ trying, Ms Ioffe says, to keep all his options open even as he ditches (former? deposed? absentee?) President Viktor Yanukovych as a political liability.
> 
> One wonders if Russian business interests have gotten through to him ...




Markets have closed in Europe, and will close here in a few minutes, having regained pretty much all the ground lost yesterday. The _Wall Street Journal_ says that "the benchmark Micex stock index in Moscow closed 5.3% higher Tuesday, recovering almost half the losses it suffered Monday."

The Russian Ruble is up 1.2% from its record low against the dollar yesterday. That slide prompted the central bank to raise interest rates and sell dollars to try and ease the pressure.

One _guesses_ that even President Putin is not immune to the *will* of the bond market* ...

_____
* President Bill Clinton's campaign strategist James Carville, the _Rajin' Cajun_, famously quipped that if there is reincarnation he wanted to come back as the bond market because everyone, including the US president, lives in fear of the bond market.


----------



## Old Sweat

KerryBlue

Ask yourself what could go wrong with the course of action you proposed?

Hopefully in the area of confrontation people will keep their macho in the closet and, I hasten to add, their vodka in the cupboard. We should be careful not to do anything to raise tensions there.


----------



## KerryBlue

Old Sweat said:
			
		

> KerryBlue
> 
> Ask yourself what could go wrong with the course of action you proposed?
> 
> Hopefully in the area of confrontation people will keep their macho in the closet and, I hasten to add, their vodka in the cupboard. We should be careful not to do anything to raise tensions there.



I believe there are plenty of things that could go wrong, I simply posted a starting position as to POTENTIAL courses of action that could be taken. I stated that I am no expert and that my opinion should not be taken without a grain of salt due to my inexperience in world affairs


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Don't sweat it;  I have been in the CAF for a few years and I have no real idea on the 'right thing to do' myself.  I'm just an operator down at the tactical level.

So at times like these on threads like these, I tend to read lots and try to gain some perspective and education from those who can speak intelligently about stuff like this.


----------



## AirDet

:goodpost: :ditto:


----------



## KerryBlue

Eye In The Sky said:
			
		

> Don't sweat it;  I have been in the CAF for a few years and I have no real idea on the 'right thing to do' myself.  I'm just an operator down at the tactical level.
> 
> So at times like these on threads like these, I tend to read lots and try to gain some perspective and education from those who can speak intelligently about stuff like this.



This whole situation is very near and dear to my heart simply because of my Ukrainian heritage. That coupled with the fact that family, and the family farm is till there leaves me worried about what the future of Ukraine holds.


----------



## KerryBlue

> *Russia reports ballistic missile test amid Crimea tension*
> 
> The Russian military says it has test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile, as tension continues over Ukraine's Crimea region.
> 
> A Topol RS-12M missile was launched from Russia's Kapustin Yar test range near the Caspian Sea to the Sary Shagan range in Kazakhstan, it said.
> 
> It comes after the US accused Russia of an "act of aggression" in Crimea.



More at link---- 
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26442381


----------



## Nemo888

I think before things went south only 9% of Uk's wanted partition. The great majority wanted to play both sides and get as many freebies as possible. It is a very nationalistic country. Russia getting mired  in an expensive and unwinnable occupation may be in our long term interest. We cab bankrupt them both financially and diplomatically for the price of throwing Ukraine under the bus. I wonder what we would have to do to push Putin over the edge? This tactic worked incredibly well in Afghanistan and during the Iraq/Iran war.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

So all we have to do on the international stage is throw a country under the bus.  And see what will push someone over the edge who is obviously willing to throw some weight around.

Yup.  Sounds like a great COA.


----------



## AirDet

Nemo888 said:
			
		

> I think before things went south only 9% of Uk's wanted partition. The great majority wanted to play both sides and get as many freebies as possible. It is a very nationalistic country. Russia getting mired  in an expensive and unwinnable occupation may be in our long term interest. We cab bankrupt them both financially and diplomatically for the price of throwing Ukraine under the bus. I wonder what we would have to do to push Putin over the edge? This tactic worked incredibly well in Afghanistan and during the Iraq/Iran war.



Perhaps that would work but why would we want to do that? Things are pretty stable comparatively.  I still maintain this was an oversight following the break-up of the USSR in 1992. The Crimean Peninsula really should've stayed with Russia.

So long as the Ukraine Army doesn't do anything stupid this will find a natural and bloodless solution. 

I say, let the people in Crimea vote on their own future.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the _Financial Post_ is an article that describes President Putin as clever, tough, sardonic and deeply cynical:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ce064c7c-a3ac-11e3-88b0-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=intl


> Classic performance as Russia’s Vladimir Putin breaks his silence
> 
> By Neil Buckley
> 
> March 4, 2014
> 
> Vladimir Putin came out on Tuesday with a classic performance: clever, tough, sardonic and deeply cynical.
> 
> In an hour-long press conference at his Novo-Ogaryovo residence, Russia’s president took at least one step back from confrontation. Possibly he blinked in the face of threatened western sanctions over Russia’s creeping occupation of the Black Sea peninsula, or Monday’s 11 per cent fall in the Moscow stock market. More likely, after the slickly executed Crimea operation, and the far more serious threat to send Russia’s army into eastern Ukraine, he felt he had made his point – for now.
> 
> There was, he said, “no need” for Russian military force in Ukraine, which would happen only in an “extreme case” – though Russia still had the option. Crucially, he said, the need for actual use of force in Crimea had “dissipated”. And, he added: “I believe that it will not be necessary for us to do anything like that in eastern Ukraine.”
> 
> Mr Putin also said Russia did not plan to annex Crimea. Many in the west will be reluctant to take such claims at face value, when Mr Putin also claimed, straining credibility, that armed men surrounding Ukrainian military sites in Crimea were “not Russian soldiers”, but members of a local volunteer force.
> 
> There were potentially worrying signals, too. Mr Putin warned Russia might not recognise the results of Ukraine’s presidential election, called for May 25, as the polls were unlikely to be fair.
> 
> What about the Budapest Memorandum, signed in 1994 when Kiev gave up its nuclear arsenal, which bound Russia, the US and the UK to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity? Mr Putin suggested, slightly ominously, that after Ukraine’s latest revolution, a “new state” might arise within its borders – and Russia had not signed the Budapest agreement with that state.
> 
> Self-assured as ever, and showing less sign of strain over recent events than some western counterparts, Mr Putin had his own narrative.
> 
> Ukraine, he said, had witnessed an “unconstitutional seizure of power” by western-backed extremists, some of them wearing “armbands with swastikas”.
> 
> What had happened in Kiev was another dangerous US attempt at social engineering, he jabbed. “They sit there across the pond . . . sometimes it seems they feel like they’re in a lab and they’re running all sorts of experiments on the rats without understanding the consequences of what they’re doing.”
> 
> Yet perhaps the clearest message from Mr Putin’s press conference was his contempt for Viktor Yanukovich – hours after Russia’s ambassador to the UN cited a letter from the ousted president requesting Moscow to use force in Ukraine as a justification for its actions in Crimea.
> 
> Mr Putin had told his Ukrainian counterpart he had “no chance of being re-elected”. Mr Yanukovich had no political future, Mr Putin added. Did he sympathise with him?
> 
> “A person who is head of state has certain rights and certain duties. The first duty is to implement the will of the people who elected him . . . You have to analyse if he did that.”
> 
> One mooted scenario in recent days had been that Russia might invade eastern Ukraine and install a puppet government in Kharkiv, the east’s biggest city, under Mr Yanukovich. While plenty of other scenarios remain possible, that one, at least, seems dead.




I have some trouble imaging how Russia _cannot_ annex Crimea thus, _de facto_, creating the new state that it might not recognize.  :

The future of the region would, actually, be easier had President Putin taken bolder, quicker action ~ which he may have avoided because his military is logistically unable to take bold, quick actions.  :dunno:

There appear to be clear ethnic, linguistic and socio-political splits between North-West Ukraine and South-East Ukraine, but it now appears likely that we will have a _united_ rump of Ukraine, bereft of Crimea.

So, as in so many Slavic folk-tales: someone (Ukraine in this case) loses but nobody wins.


Edit: changed logo to a smaller, clearer one


----------



## George Wallace

AirDet said:
			
		

> Perhaps that would work but why would we want to do that? Things are pretty stable comparatively.  I still maintain this was an oversight following the break-up of the USSR in 1992. The Crimean Peninsula really should've stayed with Russia.
> 
> So long as the Ukraine Army doesn't do anything stupid this will find a natural and bloodless solution.
> 
> I say, let the people in Crimea vote on their own future.



I think this will eventually happen.  As Crimea was "gifted" to Ukraine in the 1950's, and Russia has ensured that they migrated ethnic Russians to the region over all these decades, it would seem a wise choice to cede it back to Russia.  The Quebec style "Language Laws" to force all schools in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine to teach only Ukrainian can only flame separatist sentiments in the regions majority ethnic Russian population.  

If both sides, Russia and the West, can negotiate an amiable partition and allow Ukraine to join the EU, but not entry into NATO, the problem may be resolved.  Allow Ukraine to be that 'neutral' link between Western Europe and Russia.  Convince the Ukrainians they have the chance to have the best/choice of two worlds.  

What I find interesting is that no one seems to be making any mention of Russia's more serious security concerns to the East with Chechnya and the Stans.  For them to come to the brink of war with the West, would place them in a position of fighting on multiple fronts, fighting both a "religious" war and a conventional war.  I think it would be a grave mistake for Putin to further alienate the West, particularly Europe, in a 'war on terror'.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Any truth to John Kerry telling Putin that he can't just make crap up and go to war over it? heard that somewhere, thought it was great.


----------



## Kirkhill

Russia and Ukraine are now in direct contact.  I don't think the "West" needs to be negotiating chunks of Ukraine.  If Ukraine wants to do that they are quite capable.

I have been more than a little impressed by the ability of the Ukrainian troops to hold their ground - especially when unarmed.  

"Contact" apparently doesn't have to mean "Fire".

Birkenhead.


----------



## Nemo888

ObedientiaZelum said:
			
		

> Any truth to John Kerry telling Putin that he can't just make crap up and go to war over it? heard that somewhere, thought it was great.


Kerry 2002: “Saddam Hussein is sitting in Baghdad with an arsenal of weapons of mass destruction” 
Kerry this Sunday: “You just don’t in the 21st Century behave in 19th Century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped-up pretext.”


----------



## Jarnhamar

Nemo888 said:
			
		

> Kerry 2002: “Saddam Hussein is sitting in Baghdad with an arsenal of weapons of mass destruction”
> Kerry this Sunday: “You just don’t in the 21st Century behave in 19th Century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped-up pretext.”



That's epic.


----------



## AirDet

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> Russia and Ukraine are now in direct contact.  I don't think the "West" needs to be negotiating chunks of Ukraine.  If Ukraine wants to do that they are quite capable.
> 
> I have been more than a little impressed by the ability of the Ukrainian troops to hold their ground - especially when unarmed.
> 
> "Contact" apparently doesn't have to mean "Fire".
> 
> Birkenhead.



You're right. They are proving to be remarkably professional and restrained. I think there is every reason to believe this will have a universally equitable resolution


----------



## CombatDoc

"Game, Set and Match". A novel of the Crimean, by Vladimir Putin (with apologies to Len Deighton).


----------



## Retired AF Guy

ArmyDoc said:
			
		

> "Game, Set and Match". A novel of the Crimean, by Vladimir Putin (with apologies to Len Deighton).



Which was followed by "Hook, Line and Sinker" and "Hope, Faith, Charity."


----------



## daftandbarmy

Eye In The Sky said:
			
		

> So all we have to do on the international stage is throw a country under the bus.  And see what will push someone over the edge who is obviously willing to throw some weight around.
> 
> Yup.  Sounds like a great COA.




“An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile - hoping it will eat him last” 


 Winston Churchill


----------



## a_majoor

I suspect that some of the analysis in the article is wishful thinking on the part of Time. OTOH, it is indisputable that the negative fallout in the Russian stock market and currency has sent a very strong signal to Putin and Co. that this is a very risky play and could quite easily backfire in unpredictable ways. My long term guess is that the Russians keep the Crimea for its naval base, but end up with a never ending drain on the treasury in order to appease the Russians living there and subsidize their standard of living. Given the shaky economic foundations of Russia, this may be more of a win-lose scenario for Putin:

http://world.time.com/2014/03/03/putin-ukraine-crimea-russia/



> *4 Reasons Putin Is Already Losing in Ukraine*
> 
> As Russia's Ukraine power play reaches boiling point in Crimea, there are clear signs a Russian invasion may be a disaster for its architect, President Vladimir Putin
> 
> By Simon Shuster / Simferopol @shustryMarch 03, 2014253 Comments
> 
> Russia's President Vladimir Putin and head of the Russian army's main department of combat preparation Ivan Buvaltsev watch military exercises at the Kirillovsky firing ground in the Leningrad region on March 3, 2014
> 
> Even a week ago, the idea of a Russian military intervention in Ukraine seemed far-fetched if not totally alarmist. The risks involved were just too enormous for President Vladimir Putin and for the country he has ruled for 14 years. But the arrival of Russian troops in Crimea over the weekend has shown that he is not averse to reckless adventures, even ones that offer little gain. In the coming days and weeks, Putin will have to decide how far he is prepared to take this intervention and how much he is prepared to suffer for it. It is already clear, however, that he cannot emerge as the winner of this conflict, at least not when the damage is weighed against the gains. It will at best be a Pyrrhic victory, and at worst an utter catastrophe. Here’s why:
> 
> At home, this intervention looks to be one of the most unpopular decisions Putin has ever made. The Kremlin’s own pollster released a survey on Monday that showed 73% of Russians reject it. In phrasing its question posed in early February to 1,600 respondents across the country, the state-funded sociologists at WCIOM were clearly trying to get as much support for the intervention as possible: “Should Russia react to the overthrow of the legally elected authorities in Ukraine?” they asked. Only 15% said yes — hardly a national consensus.
> 
> That seems astounding in light of all the brainwashing Russians have faced on the issue of Ukraine. For weeks, the Kremlin’s effective monopoly on television news has been sounding the alarm over Ukraine. Its revolution, they claimed, is the result of an American alliance with Nazis intended to weaken Russia. And still, nearly three-quarters of the population oppose a Russian “reaction” of any kind, let alone a Russian military occupation like they are now watching unfold in Crimea. The 2008 invasion of Georgia had much broader support, because Georgia is not Ukraine. Ukraine is a nation of Slavs with deep cultural and historical ties to Russia. Most Russians have at least some family or friends living in Ukraine, and the idea of a fratricidal war between the two largest Slavic nations in the world evokes a kind of horror that no Kremlin whitewash can calm.
> 
> (MORE: Russia Says Ousted Ukrainian Leader Requested Invasion)
> 
> Indeed, Monday’s survey suggests that the influence of Putin’s television channels is breaking down. The blatant misinformation and demagoguery on Russian television coverage of Ukraine seems to have pushed Russians to go online for their information. And as for those who still have no Internet connection, they could simply have picked up the phone and called their panicked friends and relatives in Ukraine.
> 
> So what about Russia’s nationalists? The war-drum-thumping Liberal Democratic Party, a right-wing puppet of the Kremlin, has been screaming for Russia to send in the tanks. On Feb. 28, as troops began appearing on the streets of Crimea, the leader of that party, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, was on the scene handing out wads of cash to a cheering crowd of locals in the city of Sevastopol, home of Russia’s Black Sea fleet. “Give it to the women, the old maids, the pregnant, the lonely, the divorced,” he told the crowd from atop a chair. “Russia is rich. We’ll give everybody everything.” But in Monday’s survey, 82% of his party’s loyalists rejected any such generosity. Even the adherents of the Communist Party, who tend to feel entitled to all of Russia’s former Soviet domains, said with a broad majority — 62% — that Russia should not jump into Ukraine’s internal crisis.
> 
> That does not necessarily mean Putin will face an uprising at home. So far, the antiwar protests in Moscow have looked almost pathetically temperate. But sociologists have been saying for years that Putin’s core electorate is dwindling. What underpins his popularity — roughly 60% approved of his rule before this crisis started — is a total lack of viable alternatives to Putin’s rule. But this decision is sure to eat away at the passive mass of his supporters, especially in Russia’s biggest cities.
> 
> In Monday’s survey, 30% of respondents from Moscow and St. Petersburg said Russia could see massive political protests of the kind that overthrew the Ukrainian government last month. Putin’s only means of forestalling that kind of unrest is to crack down hard and early. So on Feb. 28, Russia’s most prominent opposition activist Alexei Navalny was put under house arrest less than six months after he won 30% of the vote in the Moscow mayoral race. Expect more of the same if the opposition to Putin’s intervention starts to find its voice.
> 
> The economic impact on Russia is already staggering. When markets opened on Monday morning, investors got their first chance to react to the Russian intervention in Ukraine over the weekend, and as a result, the key Russian stock indexes tanked by more than 10%. That amounts to almost $60 billion in stock value wiped out in the course of a day, more than Russia spent preparing for last month’s Winter Olympic Games in Sochi. The state-controlled natural-gas monopoly Gazprom, which accounts for roughly a quarter of Russian tax revenue, lost $15 billion in market value in one day — incidentally the same amount of money Russia promised to the teetering regime in Ukraine in December and then revoked in January as the revolution took hold.
> 
> The value of the Russian currency meanwhile dropped against the dollar to its lowest point on record, and the Russian central bank spent $10 billion on the foreign-exchange markets trying to prop it up. “This has to fundamentally change the way investors and ratings agencies view Russia,” said Timothy Ash, head of emerging-market research at Standard Bank. At a time when Russia’s economic growth was already stagnating, “this latest military adventure will increase capital flight, weaken Russian asset prices, slow investment and economic activity and growth. Western financial sanctions on Russia will hurt further,” Ash told the Wall Street Journal.
> 
> Even Russia’s closest allies want no part of this. The oil-rich state of Kazakhstan, the most important member of every regional alliance Russia has going in the former Soviet space, put out a damning statement on Monday, marking the first time its leaders have ever turned against Russia on such a major strategic issue: “Kazakhstan expresses deep concern over the developments in Ukraine,” the Foreign Ministry said. “Kazakhstan calls on all sides to stop the use of force in the resolution of this situation.”
> 
> What likely worries Russia’s neighbors most is the statement the Kremlin made on March 2, after Putin spoke on the phone with U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. “Vladimir Putin noted that in case of any escalation of violence against the Russian-speaking population of the eastern regions of Ukraine and Crimea, Russia would not be able to stay away and would resort to whatever measures are necessary in compliance with international law.” This sets a horrifying precedent for all of Russia’s neighbors.
> 
> (PHOTOS: Russian Troops Infiltrate Crimea)
> 
> Every single state in the former Soviet Union, from Central Asia to the Baltics, has a large Russian-speaking population, and this statement means that Russia reserves the right to invade when it feels that population is threatened. The natural reaction of any Russian ally in the region would be to seek security guarantees against becoming the next Ukraine. For countries in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus, including Armenia, a staunch Russian ally, that would likely stir desires for a closer alliance with NATO and the E.U. For the countries of Central Asia, Russia’s traditional stomping ground on the geopolitical map of the world, that would mean strengthening ties with nearby China, including military ones.
> 
> China, which has long been Russia’s silent partner on all issues of global security from Syria to Iran, has also issued cautious statements regarding Russia’s actions in Ukraine. “It is China’s long-standing position not to interfere in others’ internal affairs,” the Foreign Ministry reportedly said in a statement on Sunday. “We respect the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.”
> 
> So in the course of one weekend, Putin has spooked all the countries he wanted to include in his grand Eurasian Union, the bloc of nations he hoped would make Russia a regional power again. The only gung-ho participants in that alliance so far have been Kazakhstan (see above) and Belarus, which is known as Europe’s last dictatorship. Its leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has so far remained silent on the Russian intervention in Ukraine. But last week, Belarus recognized the legitimacy of the new revolutionary government in Kiev, marking a major break from Russia, which has condemned Ukraine’s new leaders as extremists and radicals. The Belarusian ambassador in Kiev even congratulated Ukraine’s new Foreign Minister on taking office and said he looks forward to working with him.
> 
> As for the impoverished nation of Armenia, a latecomer to Russia’s fledgling Eurasian alliance, it has also recognized the new government in Kiev while stopping short of any official condemnation of Putin’s intervention in Ukraine so far. But on Saturday, prominent politicians led an anti-Putin demonstration in the Armenian capital. “We are not against Russia,” said the country’s former Minister of National Security David Shakhnazaryan. “We are against the imperial policies of Putin and the Kremlin.”
> 
> Russia’s isolation from the West will deepen dramatically. In June, Putin was planning to welcome the leaders of the G-8, a club of Western powers (plus Japan), in the Russian resort city of Sochi. But on Sunday, all of them announced they had halted their preparations for attending the summit in protest at Russia’s intervention in Ukraine. So much for Putin’s hard-fought seat at the table with the leaders of the Western world.
> 
> In recent years, one of Russia’s greatest points of contention with the West has been over NATO’s plans to build a missile shield in Europe. Russia has seen this as a major threat to its security, as the shield could wipe out Russia’s ability to launch nuclear missiles at the West. The long-standing nuclear deterrent that has protected Russia from Western attacks for generations — the Cold War doctrine of mutually assured destruction — could thus be negated, Russia’s generals have warned. But after Russia decided to unilaterally invade its neighbor to the west this weekend, any remaining resistance to the missile-shield project would be pushed aside by the renewed security concerns of various NATO members, primarily those in Eastern Europe and the Baltics. Whatever hopes Russia had of forestalling the construction of the missile shield through diplomacy are now most likely lost.
> 
> No less worrying for Putin would be the economic sanctions the West is preparing in answer to Russia’s intervention in Ukraine. Depending on their intensity, those could cut off the ability of Russian companies and businessmen in getting Western loans and trading with most of the world’s largest economies. Putin’s allies could also find it a lot more difficult to send their children to study in the West or to keep their assets in Western banks, as they now almost universally do. All of that raises the risk for Putin of a split in his inner circle and, potentially, even of a palace coup. There is hardly anything more important to Russia’s political elite than the security of their foreign assets, certainly not their loyalty to a leader who seems willing to put all of that at risk.
> 
> And what about the upside for Putin? There doesn’t seem to be much of it, at least not compared with the damage he stands to inflict on Russia and himself. But he does look set to accomplish a few things. For one, he demonstrates to the world that his redlines, unlike those of the White House, cannot be crossed.
> 
> (MORE: A Tense Standoff at a Crimean Village)
> 
> If Ukraine’s revolutionary government moves ahead with their planned integration into the E.U. and possibly NATO, the military alliance that Russia sees as its main strategic threat would move right up to Russia’s western borders and, in Crimea, it would surround the Russian Black Sea fleet. That is a major redline for Putin and his generals.
> 
> By sending troops into Crimea and, potentially, into eastern Ukraine, Russia could secure a buffer around Russia’s strategic naval fleet and at its western border. For the military brass in Moscow, those are vital priorities, and their achievement is worth a great deal of sacrifice. Over the weekend, Putin’s actions showed that he is listening carefully to his generals. At the same time, he seems to be ignoring the outrage coming from pretty much everyone else.
> 
> Read more: How Putin's Ukraine Invasion Is a Disaster for Russia | TIME.com http://world.time.com/2014/03/03/putin-ukraine-crimea-russia/#ixzz2v3ejvewW


----------



## a_majoor

And info and cyber warfare are also playing a pert in the current situation:

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/525336/watching-for-a-crimean-cyberwar-crisis/



> *Watching for a Crimean Cyberwar Crisis*
> An info-war is under way as websites are blocked and telecom cables to Crimea are mysteriously cut.
> 
> By David Talbot on March 4, 2014
> 
> WHY IT MATTERS
> 
> More serious cyberattacks could be considered acts of war.
> 
> Russia’s takeover of the Crimean peninsula has been accompanied by a elements of an information-control campaign:  telecom cables connecting that region to the rest of Ukraine have been severed, and the Russian government has moved to block Internet pages devoted to the Ukrainian protest movement.
> 
> But so far there is no public evidence of more serious cyberattacks against military or government institutions. Indeed, Russia may need to tread a fine line with such tactics, since they could be seen as acts of war under evolving military doctrine. A report from a NATO group chaired by Madeleine Albright has said that if NATO infrastructure were the victim of a cyberattack, it could lead to a physical response such as a bombing.
> 
> 
> So far, anyway, “Russia has limited themselves to the things they usually do in the onset of a conflict to try to shape opinion, stifle critics, and advance their own viewpoint,” says James Lewis, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington, D.C. “They are doing the informational side, which is the opening move in the playbook.” Over the weekend, though, Ukraine’s national telephone company, Ukrtelecom, said that unknown vandals had seized telecommunications nodes and cut cables, severing much of the data and voice links between Crimea and the rest of Ukraine.
> 
> Info-war tactics have been seen on the Ulrainian side too. Also over the weekend, someone sympathetic to the Ukrainian cause managed to hack the Russian government’s English-language news organ, Russia Today, and substitute the word “Nazi” for “military” in some headlines, with results such as “Russian Senators Vote to Use Stabilizing Nazi Forces on Ukrainian Territory.”
> 
> The region has a colorful history of cyberattacks against smaller states and organizations seen as opposing the Kremlin. In Estonia in 2007, the local government antagonized Russia by relocating a bronze statue commemorating Russian soldiers. A flood of attacks against government, media, and telecom websites in Estonia followed, paralyzing them for weeks. (The attacks were “denial-of-service” events, flooding servers with page requests to overload them.) The Russian government denied responsibility, saying “patriotic hackers” were to blame.
> 
> In 2008, similar events played out when Russia invaded South Ossetia, part of the neighboring republic of Georgia. Again, the attacks—on sites associated with government offices and the embassies of the United States and United Kingdom, among others—could not be provably linked to Russia’s government (see “Georgian Cyberattacks Traced to Russian Civilians”).
> 
> Ukraine may be something of a different case. Both Ukraine and Russia are well-known centers of international cybercrime, and both are home to talented computer engineers. But for whatever reason, this sort of mass cyberattack is not happening. “In Georgia you had cyber incidents coördinated with military operations. But the Russians haven’t done that here,” Lewis says. “If violence breaks out in the Crimea, I think they will bump it up a notch.”
> 
> The events provide a way for the United States to see what Russia’s cyberwar capabilities are, says Stewart Baker, a former policy chief at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and now a lawyer in private practice. “From the U.S. point of view, it is an opportunity to watch one country that has integrated cyber [tactics] into their military–Russia–and see what their current doctrines suggest they do,” he said. “But it may be they have decided they don’t need to show what they’ve got, and won’t do it.”
> 
> Four years ago, Vladimir Sherstyuk, a member of Russia’s National Security Council and director of the Institute for Information Security Issues at Moscow State University, boasted of significant capacities. “Cyberweapons can affect a huge amount of people, as well as nuclear,” he said in an interview with MIT Technology Review (see “Russia’s Cyber Security Plans”). “But there is one big difference between them. Cyberweapons are very cheap—almost free of charge.”


----------



## vonGarvin

Too long; didn't read.
Mr. Putin et al don't behave as westerners, because they're not. He got what he wanted, and his economy isn't about to tank. Markets are fickle, and he knows that. He has plenty of raw materials, a small debt, a trade surplus, a friend (for now) in China.
He also has, in Europe, a natural gas addicted client, that is hesitant to do anything to upset him.

He has his port safe and sound, Ukraine is still politically and economically bankrupt, and Ukraine will be of no threat to ethnic Russians in the lower Don River basin.  Soon enough they'll be back, hat in hand, as Ukraine does nothing but drain the EU.

Putin won.

Side note: the U.S. is no moral authority on anything relating to international diplomacy.  They flaunt the rules when it comes to their use of lethal military force in sovereign lands, are financially bankrupt and the writing is on the wall for them, I fear.


----------



## McG

Discounting Soviet era invasions to deny popular reform or political change (Hungary 1956 and Czechoslovakia 1968), the modern Russian motivation seems to be ethnic-nationally motivated where military force is used to suppress minority succession from Russia (Chechnya) or to enable succession of Russian  or “desirable” ethnic minorities from former Russian or Soviet nations(Georgia x 2).  Arguably, another example of ethnic relationship driven use of military force is the Russian abandonment of Bosnian Peacekeeping positions to seize key Yugoslavian infrastructure ahead of NATO in 1999.

Some lite media analysis of “when Russia attacks” here:  http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/crisis-in-ukraine-what-happened-last-time-russian-troops-got-involved-1.1711733 
... and a contrast of Russian and Ukrainian military power here: http://globalnews.ca/news/1184789/a-look-at-russian-ukrainian-militaries/ 

I wonder if this crisis is not an ideal candidate for the classic blue beret mission.  Not the mythic, altruistic run to save the unfortunate people stuck at the flash-point, but rather the face-saving insertion of UN forces (composed of “middle powers”) to displace belligerent forces and prevent small conflicts escalating to where they bring great powers into war with each other … the UNEF model of the Sanai.
... not that I am suggesting we (Canada) should do this.

In other related news, the CAF has suspended all military cooperation with Russia as a result of the current crisis:  http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canada-suspends-military-activity-with-russia-effective-immediately-1.1713273


----------



## Journeyman

MCG said:
			
		

> In other related news, the CAF has suspended all military cooperation with Russia as a result of the current crisis:  http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canada-suspends-military-activity-with-russia-effective-immediately-1.1713273


.....and then I read the comments.....   :facepalm:

There has to be some "Godwin-like" rule wherein 'the least informed are the most shrill'  [no, it doesn't just apply to news comments]


......with a possible subset of '_everything_ is Harper/Obama's fault'


----------



## CougarKing

Wow. Even Russia's own state-funded news anchors can't stand what Putin did...

Abby Martin, an American working for RT, stood up during an RT program to slam the Russian government for what it did...

Perhaps she'll be looking for a new job after this.

CNN

Youtube video: Abby Martin speaking out



> *State-funded network's news anchor: 'What Russia did is wrong'*
> 
> By Greg Botelho, CNN
> 
> (...SNIPPED/EDITED)
> 
> *
> Yet that is exactly what one of RT's anchors, Abby Martin, said Monday night at the end of her "Breaking the Set" program. Moscow was not her lone target -- she also expressed disappointment over coverage and "disinformation" emanating "from all sides of the media spectrum" -- but it was clearly the most noticeable.*
> 
> 
> Apparently, her bosses took notice.
> 
> 
> *While RT didn't immediately respond to a CNN request for comment, the Telegraph reported -- and Martin herself acknowledged -- that the network told her to go to Crimea, the peninsula on the Black Sea where Russian troops reportedly played a part in besieging Ukrainian military bases in the days after that country's Russian-leaning president was ousted.
> 
> "But I am not going to Crimea despite the statement RT has made," Martin tweeted.
> 
> *
> 
> The next move for Martin, whose show is based out of Washington, or the network remains to be seen. Still, what's transpired already did offer an interesting glimpse into the volatile situation in Ukraine, Russian state media and RT, in particular.
> 
> The Ukrainian crisis has been brewing since last November, when protesters angry about then President Viktor Yanukovych's move away from a European Union trade pact and toward an apparently closer relationship with Moscow.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## vonGarvin

There are suggestions that the sniping in Maidan was started by....the Maidan group itself.


----------



## AliG

Of which the doctor at the source of this report did not say anything like this.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10677370/Ukraine-Russia-crisis-live.html

At the 15:17 entry.

Lots of claims and counter claims. I just can't bring myself into believing anything coming out of RT as being anything even close to the whole picture.


----------



## Jarnhamar

> YEEEEEEAAAAAAAAHHHHHH


----------



## Privateer

per CBC:  [Canadian] Government to send military observers to Ukraine



> ...
> 
> Canada plans to send a couple of military observers to Crimea, Ukraine, to assist in the safeguarding of human rights.
> 
> In the House of Commons during question period, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said, "Canada will contribute observers to an important military observer mission in a co-ordinated effort to better monitor the Russian military mission in Crimea."
> 
> Two Canadians will be part of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe mission.
> 
> The pair are already in Europe and are on their way to Ukraine. On Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called on Russia to allow observers and said the U.S. wants to see large numbers of them in Crimea.
> 
> ...



More at link:  http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/government-to-send-military-observers-to-ukraine-1.2561288


----------



## OldSolduer

Human rights.....yes of course.


I think Putin et al view what we call "human rights" they may term "Western rights" - and not applicable here.

By the way....great picture - Crimea river.....

  >


----------



## pbi

Technoviking said:
			
		

> Too long; didn't read.
> Mr. Putin et al don't behave as westerners, because they're not. He got what he wanted, and his economy isn't about to tank. Markets are fickle, and he knows that. He has plenty of raw materials, a small debt, a trade surplus, a friend (for now) in China.
> He also has, in Europe, a natural gas addicted client, that is hesitant to do anything to upset him.
> 
> He has his port safe and sound, Ukraine is still politically and economically bankrupt, and Ukraine will be of no threat to ethnic Russians in the lower Don River basin.  Soon enough they'll be back, hat in hand, as Ukraine does nothing but drain the EU.
> 
> Putin won.
> 
> Side note: the U.S. is no moral authority on anything relating to international diplomacy.  They flaunt the rules when it comes to their use of lethal military force in sovereign lands, are financially bankrupt and the writing is on the wall for them, I fear.



 I am with Technoviking on this one. The US has, over the last few decades, under both Democrat and Republican leadership, progressively whittled down its ability to take a moral stance on much of anything: use of military force, torture, support of nasty foreign governments, etc. This is very sad, and needs to be reversed so that the US can once again be a beacon for the world to look up to. We really need a beacon right about now. The statement by Kerry about "19th Century behaviour" could, in the wrong hands, easily be turned against the US. It's hard to imagine that, confronted with the same situation on their own border with, say, Mexico, the US would not act exactly as it saw fit, deploying many of the same arguments that Putin has."Manifest Destiny" and all that, right?


----------



## observor 69

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> Russia and Ukraine are now in direct contact.  I don't think the "West" needs to be negotiating chunks of Ukraine.  If Ukraine wants to do that they are quite capable
> 
> Birkenhead.



'Tough' Ukraine talks to continue after Paris summit
"Russia's Sergei Lavrov refused to meet his Ukrainian counterpart, whose government Moscow does not recognise."

And further in this news  item:
"Robert Serry, the secretary-general's envoy to Crimea, was forced to leave Ukraine after being besieged by an angry mob chanting pro-Russia slogans."

And back to Paris:
"The talks ended with no firm deal, and without a direct meeting between Mr Lavrov and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Deshchytsia."

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26461029

Sounds like Putin hasn't given Mr.Lavrov much manoeuvring room.


----------



## vonGarvin

Baden Guy said:
			
		

> "Russia's Sergei Lavrov refused to meet his Ukrainian counterpart, whose government Moscow does not recognise."


He has a point. Yanukovich was elected in what were deemed to be fair elections.  The method to change governments in a democracy is not by mob rules, even if he makes an unpopular trade deal. If that were the case, then the mob could very well have taken down Mulroney over Free Trade, or heck even Obama over the Affordable Care Act.  But that's not how it works.  

And there are some reasons to suggest that there may have been some radicals involved in the demonstrations turned riots.


----------



## Old EO Tech

Technoviking said:
			
		

> He has a point. Yanukovich was elected in what were deemed to be fair elections.  The method to change governments in a democracy is not by mob rules, even if he makes an unpopular trade deal. If that were the case, then the mob could very well have taken down Mulroney over Free Trade, or heck even Obama over the Affordable Care Act.  But that's not how it works.
> 
> And there are some reasons to suggest that there may have been some radicals involved in the demonstrations turned riots.



While I admit I'm certainly no Ukrainian constitutional expert, but from media reports, Yanukovich was removed by parliament, who are elected officials via what ever legal constitutional process in the Ukrainian constitution.  Much like a US President can be impeached.  So while I'm sure the will of the "mobs" might have motivated the elected MP's it was still a legal process, and they have promised to hold presidential elections as soon as practical.


----------



## Kirkhill

:ditto: :goodpost: :goodpost: :goodpost:


----------



## Edward Campbell

There are (unconfirmed) reports (rumours?) that the Russians have sunk a ship in the narrows at the Crimean town of Yevpatoria that, effectively, bottles up the Ukrainian Navy.






Source: https://twitter.com/elizapalmer/status/441530780477829120/photo/1

Edit: to add ~

Maybe it's more than a rumour ... I don't know how authoritative _Navaltoday_ might be but it, too, is reporting the same thing with a new photo.






The _Navaltoday_ report says, _"The information was confirmed by the Ukrainian military of the South Naval Base who were observing the operation."_


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> There are (unconfirmed) reports (rumours?) that the Russians have sunk a ship in the narrows at the Crimean town of Yevpatoria that, effectively, bottles up the Ukrainian Navy.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Source: https://twitter.com/elizapalmer/status/441530780477829120/photo/1
> 
> Edit: to add ~
> 
> Maybe it's more than a rumour ... I don't know how authoritative _Navaltoday_ might be but it, too, is reporting the same thing with a new photo.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The _Navaltoday_ report says, _"The information was confirmed by the Ukrainian military of the South Naval Base who were observing the operation."_



Dirty move!  In other news, Barack Obama is trying to negotiate a settlement with Vlad the Impaler, here is a snapshot of their discussion:


----------



## tomahawk6

The Russians pulled a junked vessel out into the waterway and sank it.The vessel was the Ochakov an anti-submarine vessel.
Nice catch ER !! 
The MSM has yet to pick up on this event.


----------



## muskrat89

Crimea's parliament has voted to join Russia.

Reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act   http://news.yahoo.com/big-power-talks-ukraine-crisis-little-progress-003521587--business.html



> SIMFEROPOL, Ukraine (Reuters) - Crimea's parliament voted to join Russia on Thursday and its Moscow-backed government set a referendum within 10 days on the decision in a dramatic escalation of the crisis over the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula.
> 
> The sudden acceleration of moves to bring Crimea, which has an ethnic Russian majority and has effectively been seized by Russian forces, formally under Moscow's rule came as European Union leaders gathered for an emergency summit to find ways to pressure Russia to back down.
> 
> U.S. President Barack Obama took steps to punish those involved in threatening the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, ordering the freezing of their U.S. assets and a ban on travel into the United States.
> 
> The U.S. Navy announced a guided-missile destroyer, the USS Truxton, was heading to the Black Sea in what it said was a long-planned training exercise and not a show of force.
> 
> The Crimean parliament voted unanimously "to enter into the Russian Federation with the rights of a subject of the Russian Federation".


----------



## a_majoor

A slowly gathering Western response:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-talks-to-russia-but-moves-more-warplanes-to-region/2014/03/05/97dc7e4c-a4af-11e3-b865-38b254d92063_story.html



> *U.S., allies slowly put squeeze on Russia*
> 
> Kevin Lamarque/Reuters -  U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, right, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meet at the Russian ambassador's residence in Paris on March 5, 2014.
> 
> By Anne Gearan and Karen DeYoung, Published: March 5 E-mail the writers
> 
> PARIS — The United States and its European allies incrementally tightened the noose of their disapproval around Russia on Wednesday, agreeing to send more money to Ukraine, dispatching international observers and more U.S. aircraft to the region, and edging closer to direct sanctions against Moscow.
> 
> With little movement reported on the ground in Crimea, the autonomous Ukrainian region where Russian troops have taken control, attention focused on a chaotic day of diplomatic meetings in Europe.
> 
> Secretary of State John F. Kerry held his first direct meeting with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, since street protests in the Ukrainian capital turned deadly last month and led to the ouster of Kiev’s pro-Russia government. No progress was reported after the session, held at the home of Russia’s ambassador to France, but Kerry and Lavrov agreed to keep talking.
> 
> Kerry cautioned against assuming “that we did not . . . have serious conversations. We have a number of ideas on the table,” he told reporters, even as he reiterated the U.S. position that Russia’s military movement into Crimea is unacceptable.
> 
> Lavrov did not show up at a separate meeting with Kerry, British Foreign Secretary William Hague and Ukraine’s acting foreign minister, Andrii Deshchytsia, who flew here on Kerry’s plane from Kiev.
> 
> Kerry later told reporters that he had had “zero expectation” that Lavrov would accept an invitation to come to that meeting but that it would have been “inappropriate” for world powers to discuss Ukraine’s fate without that country’s representative.
> 
> Asked at a news conference about the Ukrainian minister — part of a government that Russia claims is illegitimate — Lavrov replied: “Who is it?”
> 
> A photo of Kerry and Lavrov tweeted by Russia’s Foreign Ministry showed the two looking in opposite directions, with a caption noting that although they didn’t always see eye to eye, communication was important.
> 
> No similar quips emerged from a meeting of the NATO-Russia Council in Brussels. A NATO diplomat, describing the session as “tense,” said alliance members one by one confronted Alexander V. Grushko, Russia’s representative to NATO, with charges that Moscow was violating international law in Crimea and concocting threats against ethnic Russians there to justify its actions.
> 
> “It was quite an uncomfortable meeting,” said the diplomat, speaking on the condition of anonymity about the closed-door session. When it was over, NATO announced that it was suspending collaboration with Russian armed forces on several fronts, including planning for Russia to provide a maritime escort for the U.S. ship that is to destroy Syrian chemical weapons at sea in the spring.
> 
> Before meeting with the Russians, alliance ambassadors traveled from NATO headquarters across town in Brussels for a rare meeting with representatives of the European Union’s policy and security committee.
> 
> E.U. representatives gave preliminary approval to a $15 billion aid package of loans and grants to Ukraine over the next several years, on top of a U.S. announcement Tuesday of $1 billion in energy loan guarantees.
> 
> The European package, to be approved at an E.U. summit Thursday, would be partially conditioned on reforms to Ukraine’s tanking economy. Kiev estimates that it needs $35 billion in international rescue loans over the next two years.
> 
> The European Union announced Thursday morning that it was imposing sanctions on 18 Ukrainians, including former officials, accused of looting the national treasury.
> 
> In Washington, a senior official said there were ongoing discussions within the administration about whether the United States should unilaterally impose sanctions on Ukrainian and Russian individuals tied to corruption and the recent violence in Ukraine. Although the administration is prepared to move forward within days, “we want to coordinate with the Europeans to be most effective,” said the senior official, who was not authorized to speak on the record about the discussions.
> 
> Some European governments with significant financial equities in Russia are reluctant to move toward major sanctions against that nation’s economy and have urged the sequential approach that the administration and its partners are now taking.
> 
> The Pentagon also announced, in response to what officials said were requests from Eastern European NATO members over the past week, that it would more than double the number of aircraft it has based in Lithuania as part of a regular alliance air-defense patrol.
> 
> The patrols over the Baltic nations were initiated a decade ago and are rotated quarterly among NATO members that have the appropriate aircraft. The United States, by coincidence, is in charge of the patrols this quarter and is sending six F-15 fighter jets and a KC-135 tanker to add to the four F-15s already deployed at Lithuania’s Siauliai Air Base.
> 
> In testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, the Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman, Gen. Martin Dempsey, said his Russian counterpart told him Wednesday that the troops in Crimea “were not regular forces. They were well-trained militia forces responding to threats to ethnic Russians in the Crimea.”
> 
> Dempsey said he could not “at this time” tell Congress “where the military forces inside the Crimea came from.” But “I did suggest” to Gen. Valery Gerasimov “that a soldier looks like a soldier looks like a soldier, and that the — that distinction had been lost on the international community.”
> 
> To emphasize that point, the State Department issued what it said was a “fact sheet” titled “President Putin’s Fiction,” disputing point by point the Russian leader’s claims that the troops in Crimea did not include newly deployed Russian forces, that in any case Russia’s actions were legal under international agreements, and that ethnic Russians and Russian bases in Crimea were under threat from Ukrainian “extremists.”
> 
> 
> In a separate meeting Wednesday in Vienna, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said 18 of its participating states were sending 35 observers to Ukraine “to dispel concerns about unusual military activities.”
> 
> The United States and its allies have warned Russia not to extend its military deployments into eastern Ukraine, where ethnic Russians dominate. More immediately, they have called on Russia to return its troops to Crimean bases, where they are stationed under a long-standing agreement with Ukraine; to accept international monitors to verify the situation in Crimea; and to open talks with the interim Ukrainian government.
> 
> As of Wednesday, the senior administration official said, the Russians “are not backing down from their ridiculous claims, but also have not taken further steps. So it’s status quo.”
> 
> DeYoung reported from Washington.


----------



## tomahawk6

Six more F-15's for Baltic Air Policing rotation.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/03/05/hagel-says-us-stepping-up-support-to-nato-allies-in-europe-amid-ukraine-crisis/


----------



## Bird_Gunner45

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> Six more F-15's for Baltic Air Policing rotation.
> 
> http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/03/05/hagel-says-us-stepping-up-support-to-nato-allies-in-europe-amid-ukraine-crisis/



6 F-15s? That's about as token as token gets....


----------



## Journeyman

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> Six more F-15's for Baltic Air Policing rotation.


 I'll take "Meaningless Gestures Effecting Nothing in the Ukraine for 500" Alex.


----------



## tomahawk6

Its an increase to 10 which is a gesture of support. :camo:


----------



## tomahawk6

Maybe deploy the Euro Brigade to Poland ?  ;D


----------



## a_majoor

A bit of editorial cartoon humour: how Putin is outplaying Obama


----------



## tomahawk6

The USS Truxtun is headed for the Black Sea. :

http://www.stripes.com/news/destroyer-uss-truxtun-heads-for-black-sea-amid-heightened-tensions-over-crimea-1.271401


----------



## The_Falcon

Some people around here need to heed this http://forums.army.ca/forums/threads/114290.new.html#new  let try to keep jab's at others jobs out of this (and other discussions).  This is fair warning for everyone, don't heed it and you get to go up the warning system.  

Now back on track.

Staff.


----------



## McG

Only a few days after declaring the CAF has ceased military cooperation with the Russians, nine Russian soldiers are given 24 hours to get out of this country.  http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/russian-soldiers-training-in-canada-given-24-hours-to-leave-country-1.1717172


… And surprise of surprises, propaganda may already be employed by the opposing sides of this conflict:  http://knlive.ctvnews.ca/propaganda-has-people-viewing-ukraine-conflict-very-differently-1.1718095


----------



## Gooba97531

I found this on Reddit. Not sure it's 100% true, but it seems about right. 

http://www.reddit.com/live/3rgnbke2rai6hen7ciytwcxadi


----------



## a_majoor

Two pieces of fallout from this.

1. The Iranians now seem set to walk away from whatever agreement they have made WRT their nuclear ambitions (perhaps they may not publicly announce this, but if they are emboldened to place the editorial cartoon shown in the English section of their news site for everyone to see the implication is clear:

http://nypost.com/2014/03/07/how-irans-rulers-see-obama/



> *How Iran’s rulers see Obama*
> By Mark CunninghamMarch 7, 2014 | 12:30am
> Modal Trigger
> 
> In the wake of the Russian putsch in Crimea, defenders of President Obama have been falling all over themselves insisting that our commander-in-chief is not seen as weak by other nations’ leaders.
> 
> This cartoon is damning evidence to the contrary — since it speaks to Obama’s image on three key fronts.
> 
> The image itself links our president’s famous “red line” on use of chemical weapons by the rulers of Syria (which he said would be a “game changer”) with his veiled threats over the weekend against Russian action in the Ukraine crisis.
> 
> In the event, the only change in the Syrian game was that the nation’s dictator, Bashar al-Assad, has been steadily strengthened since he was caught massacring innocents with his chem weapons. (And, of course, Obama, with his red-line threat, had tacitly walked away from his earlier “Assad must go” tough talk.)
> 
> By the way, Syria’s still “working” on handing over its chems.
> 
> On Ukraine, the cartoon suggests, Obama can’t credibly threaten to do much of anything, because he never made good on his last threat. The fact that he bought into Vladimir Putin’s offer of a face-saving way out of enforcing his threat just adds to the sting.
> 
> The third front? The cartoon comes to us from the English portion of the website of the Fars News Agency — which is the de facto official news agency of the Iranian regime.
> 
> In other words, Iran’s rulers are watching Obama lurch from crisis to crisis, and they’re not impressed.
> Indeed, if this cartoon is a window into their thinking, it’s a safe bet that Tehran is already planning to walk away from the “interim” deal now that it has loosened the global sanctions that had been crimping Iran’s economy.
> 
> Iran’s rulers certainly aren’t going to worry about Obama’s vague talk of “all options” being “on the table.” When it comes to getting tough on the world stage, they see him as all talk and no stick — and they’re not even hiding their contempt.



2. A longer pice in The American Interest which shows how Russia has essentially ignored any and all diplomatic responses, secure in the knowledge they have nothing to fear and everything to gain:

http://www.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2014/03/06/russia-blows-past-obamas-off-ramp/



> Russia Blows Past Obama’s “Off Ramp”
> Yet another western plan for Ukraine ended in failure today. Will this hurt Obama’s standing in the Middle East?
> 
> Yet another western plan for Ukraine went down in flames today as the Russians blew past the ‘off-ramp’ Washington and its allies had prepared as a way to defuse the crisis. It’s the third western plan to flame out since November.
> 
> First came plan A: Get Yanukovych, a leader based in the east, to sign an EU trade agreement that would set a united Ukraine on a westward path. Putin disrupted that plan by getting Yanukovych to switch and go east.
> 
> Then came Plan B: When unrest swept Kiev and Yanukovych’s government reacted with blind and brutal thuggishness, western diplomats decided to help the protestors replace the Yanukovych regime with a new government that could unite the country and bring it toward the West. That plan failed when Russia took advantage of the chaos in Ukraine to occupy Crimea and demonstrate its ability to threaten the east.
> 
> Plan C, which Putin shot down in the last 24 hours, was apparently based on the hope among some policy makers that a confused and misguided President Putin had made a dreadful blunder in Crimea. The plan was to offer the poor, trapped Russians a graceful way out of their predicament that would ultimately restore Ukrainian unity as the country moved West. The plan collapsed when Lavrov blew off the West and refused to even meet with Ukraine’s foreign minister and now the Russians are kicking the fragments to bits as the Crimean regional authorities announce plans for a referendum on annexation by Russia.
> 
> 
> Far from thinking that its incursion was a foolish blunder, Russia appears to be acting in the belief that it has inflicted a humiliation on the West and made solid gains on the ground in Ukraine. It is doubling down on the policy, and as far as one can read the mixed signals from the Kremlin, appears to be saying that the West must swallow the annexation of Crimea or watch as Russia further destabilizes eastern Ukraine.
> 
> Putin cares much less than many westerners seem to think about any sanctions that the West is likely to impose. Russia isn’t part of the West and things work differently there. Western commentators pointed breathlessly to large declines in Russian stock markets after the invasion, for example, to show how Putin must be feeling the errors of his ways.
> 
> Not really; Putin does not worry nearly as much about the Russian stock market as western leaders worry about financial markets in their own countries. Putin broke the oligarchs as a political force years ago; in Russia, corporations exist to serve the state and not the other way round. He is not worried that business leaders will lose confidence in him; in Putin’s Russia, it is business leaders who worry about losing the trust of the country’s political master.
> 
> As for banking crackdowns and visa limits, it will help Putin, not hurt him, if powerful Russians are unable to leave the country or move their money around in the West. One of his worries is that various oligarchs and power brokers can put enough money in the west to be able to get out from under his thumb. He would like all of his backers to be dependent on him for continued enjoyment of wealth and property. If the West wants to fence his backers in, so be it. (If the west goes after Putin’s own golden horde of ill-gotten simoleons, estimated by many to be north of $50 billion, the calculation might change.)
> 
> As for the value of the ruble, Putin probably thinks of this as a problem for the technocrats to solve. In any case, global political instability, in which there is a bull market these days, tends to drive up the price of Russia’s gas and oil exports, and this is the bottom line the Russian president probably watches most closely. Trouble in Europe and trouble in the Middle East brings more money into Russia’s coffers, not less.
> 
> Putin cares about the economy, and Russia’s economic weakness is one of the permanent disadvantages that hobbles Russia at every turn—but the effect of any of the likely western sanctions on Russia is probably less serious than many of his opponents would wish.
> 
> As for other trade sanctions, the disunity and economic selfishness of the western response has made the West look ridiculous. France will deliver warships, Germany will buy gas, and Britain’s banks are open for Russian business. Putin must be quaking in his boots at this awesome display of resolve.
> 
> Far from agreeing with the line that he’s fallen into a clever western trap, Putin probably thinks that he’s still got a shaky US administration pretty much where he wants it. Wrecking three western plans for Ukraine in a row has left him with what he probably sees as a stronger position than he had three months ago. He’s blocked his worst case outcome—a united Ukraine moving to the West with the eastern political leadership backing the move. The West is largely stuck with the financial support for Ukraine (meaning that US and EU taxpayers will be paying Ukraine’s back bills to Gazprom and other Russian entities), and now that he has Crimea in hand, the divisions between east and west can be exploited by Russia down the road.
> 
> Looking at the bigger picture, Putin probably also thinks the United States needs him more than he needs us at the moment. The Obama administration, he likely believes, is desperate to avoid further trouble in the Middle East. In Syria, in the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, and in the Iranian negotiations, it is out on a limb, engaged in very high stakes diplomacy where the odds don’t favor it. Russia can’t do a lot about the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, but it can probably spoil the Iran negotiations and make Syria an even more horrible diplomatic and political problem for the Obama administration than it already is. Indeed, Samantha Power is now stating that Syria is dragging its feet in negotiations over the destruction of chemical weapons facilities. The U.S. should not expect any help from Russia as it searches for progress in Syria.
> 
> Putin can therefore inflict a great deal of pain on President Obama and American diplomacy if he chooses, and one suspects that he likes that. It’s possible that in happier times there were people in the Obama administration who believed that Putin would help them out diplomatically either because Russia and the US have common interests win Syria or over the Iranian issue or because he would prefer to help liberal, presumably more dovish Democrats consolidate power in Washington rather than making them look bad and easing the path for Republicans back into the White House.
> 
> Putin, however, doesn’t look at things that way. He appears to believe that under its dovish rhetoric the Obama administration was trying to detach Ukraine from Russia—a mortal threat to Russia’s vital interests as the Kremlin sees them. The Obama administration’s human rights rhetoric and its habit of making irritating though not genuinely wounding gestures (like sending gay delegates to the Sochi Olympics) angered the Russians without weakening them, and we can be sure that Putin believes in his gut that if some kind of Kiev style protest movement rose up in Moscow to drive him from office, that the United States would give it as much help as we dared.
> 
> From a Russian point of view, there already was a cold war between Moscow and Washington, and the West’s effort to snatch Ukraine last fall was a unilateral escalation of that conflict and an existential threat to the foundations of both the Putin government and the Russian national project. Putin believes he is fighting back and it looks as if his interest in punishing Obama over Ukraine is greater than his (limited and conditional) desire to keep working with Obama on issues like arms control.
> 
> From Putin’s point of view, there is much less difference between liberal Democrats and conservative Republicans than narcissistic westerners might think. He sees the whole United States as his geopolitical arch-rival and sees differences between liberals and conservatives as arguments about the best sauce to cook Russia with. Reagan brought the Soviets down and George H. W. Bush reunified Germany and anchored it in NATO, but the Clinton administration rammed NATO expansion down a weak Yeltsin’s throat and Obama was ready to scoop Ukraine into the western swag bag if Russia hadn’t stopped him.
> 
> Just as Jimmy Carter did not understand that his human rights advocacy ruined his hopes for a new era of detente and arms negotiations with the Soviet Union, the Obama administration’s policy makers don’t seem seem to understand that their Ukraine policy (which they don’t ever seem to have thought much about one way or the other) contradicted their reset policy in a way that would alienate and enrage the Russians. Now, from the Kremlin’s point of view, it may be the Obama administration that has fallen into a trap. Domestic political pressures are meshing with the President’s own sense of legality and morality in international affairs to push the United States towards trying to make it look as if our sanctions and other responses are imposing. In fact, they will and must be fairly ineffective, and Russia can use its influence over events in Syria and Iran to cause more pain to Obama and more damage to America’s international standing.
> 
> Russian diplomats expect to be getting urgent calls for help from desperate American diplomats trying to get Iran to an acceptable agreement and perhaps also to keep the Syrians within some kind of bounds. They are probably also expecting some interesting calls from Saudis, and from Egyptian generals with Saudi money in their bank accounts, looking to punish the Obama administration by creating the appearance of a new Russian role in Egyptian military affairs. It’s quite possible that the value of some Saudi backed arms deals with Egyptians and maybe Pakistanis could more than offset the cost of western sanctions to the Russian economy. In any case, Russia thinks it has some running room in foreign policy now, and we should expect it to take advantage where it can.
> 
> There may still be some people in Washington who think Putin has blundered into a weak position, but from Tokyo and Beijing to Teheran and Damascus, Putin is probably looking like a stronger horse today, and Uncle Sam like a weaker one.
> 
> We shall see, but the most important question now probably isn’t what happens next in Ukraine. The question is how does the breakdown of the Obama administration’s Russia policy affect America’s position in the Middle East. Will Iran now assume that it can have more backing from Russia and will that harden its stance in the nuclear talks? Will Assad now conclude that he has less to fear from the Americans than ever before? Will that be reflected in a continual hardening of his stance on chemical weapons?
> 
> If those things happen, how will the Obama administration reshape its stance in the Middle East? If Iran and Syria negotiations deteriorate, and Russia is being the reverse of helpful, what is America’s next move?
> 
> Meanwhile, let’s see what the West comes up with for Plan D in Ukraine.


----------



## CougarKing

Seems there are a large number of residents of Crimea who also still want to be part of Ukraine, in spite of the reported ethnic Russian majority there:

Video: Rally in Simferopol for Ukrainian unity/territorial integrity


----------



## Old Sweat

This oped piece from the Ottawa Citizen which discusses the Canadian response to the Ukraine crisis vis a vis the response of certain critics is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act.

Column: Courage and conviction in foreign policy


BY TERRY GLAVIN, OTTAWA CITIZEN MARCH 5, 2014 

Whenever a foreign-policy hullabaloo starts taking up the bigger headlines of the national newspapers’ front pages, it’s dead certain that sooner or later some windbags will be given space to drone on about Canada having been lately reduced to a marginal and much-diminished presence “on the world stage.” This has been so ever since at least the days of Jean Chrétien, when to say such things was to actually tell the truth.

Cavilling of this kind often accompanies the assertion that Ottawa is guilty of pursuing foreign policy only as a cheap means of pandering to domestic audiences. This is a crudely elitist grievance, owing to its foundation in the unspoken understanding that some usually “ethnic” section of the electorate should be disregarded so that preference might be given to the wiser counsel of some reliably disgruntled former ambassadors, also usually and not coincidentally from the Chrétien era.

These weird civic rituals have been repeating themselves in the usual way around the approach Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Foreign Minister John Baird have been taking towards the crisis in Ukraine. All the more remarkable, then, that the Liberal party’s formidable Chrystia Freeland, whose talents include an expertise in Russian and Ukrainian politics and economics, is bravely breaking with the idiocy of these partisan and boring customs.

Freeland’s win in last November’s byelection in Toronto-Centre happened to coincide almost exactly with the first convulsions of revolutionary protest in Kyiv’s Independence Square. She’s an authority on Russia’s tragic descent from a buccaneering post-communist euphoria to the dismal gangster state now run by former secret police boss Vladimir Putin (it’s the subject of her book, Sale of the Century). She’s fluent in Ukrainian, she’s lived and worked in Kyiv, and in recent weeks, her analyses have been showing up in extended essays for the New York Times and Britain’s Prospect magazine.

In Kyiv this week, Freeland was offered a wide-open shot at Harper and Baird. She didn’t take it. “It’s really important for me right now as a Canadian MP outside Canada in a country which is in grave jeopardy to present a united front with the government,” Freeland told the CBC on Tuesday. “I will say that people here in Ukraine are grateful for Minister Baird’s visit. They are delighted that the Ukrainian flag flew in Ottawa today. I’ve heard people say that they are pleased about the recall of the ambassador … there’s no dissent between me and the Liberal party and the prime minister and the foreign minister on Ukraine right now.”

It is instructive to contrast Freeland’s commentaries with the widely reported and predictably dreary gripings of Paul Heinbecker, a congenitally disaffected career diplomat whose last big assignment was at the UN in New York, ending a decade ago.

Canada has lost influence on the world stage, Heinbecker complained. Canada is engaging in empty gestures in Ukraine, Canada should not be recalling its ambassador from Moscow, Canada could have had that seat at the UN Security Council, and so on.

A clue: The lofty heights to which Heinbecker admonishes Canada to aspire are the secretarial functions currently being performed at the UN Security Council by plucky little Luxembourg. Another clue: Heinbecker was a supporter of Paul Dewar’s calamitous bid for the NDP leadership — which is fair enough, but it is also a fact that rarely warrants mention, for some reason.

It also says rather a lot that Heinbecker was especially distressed last weekend about the dressing-down Baird’s deputy minister had just administered to Russian ambassador Georgiy Mamedov. “Mamedov is one of the guys you really want to be able to talk to,” Heinbecker told The Canadian Press, crediting Mamedov with (among other things) having almost single-handedly ended the war in Kosovo in the late 1990s.

But then Vladimir Putin embarked upon an ugly imperialist belligerence in Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula and Mamedov’s Svengali-like powers were seeming maybe not so astonishing, because only the week before he’d been telling reporters: “Whoever discusses rumours about Russian military intervention in Ukraine is committing an insult to the intellect of the Canadian public, full stop … you won’t see any Russian troops in Ukraine. It’s the last thing you should be worried about.”

Baird could do a lot more to reach out to the brighter lights in the opposition, so as to build cross-partisan consensus in crises like these. Freeland’s call to prepare punishing sanctions on the belligerents in Russia’s criminal oligarchy should be heeded right quickly. But all in all, events have vindicated Canada’s refreshingly militant support for Ukraine’s embattled democrats.

Ottawa’s approach has enjoyed the counsel and the backing of the Ukrainian-Canadian Congress — one of those dreaded “domestic audiences” to which Ottawa is routinely told it must not “pander.” Also, by Tuesday, the House of Commons had given its unanimous consent to a motion that (among other things) condemned Putin’s military provocations in Crimea, affirmed Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, backed Baird’s decision to temporarily recall Canada’s ambassador to the Kremlin and also supported Harper’s commitment to suspend G8 summiteering with Moscow.

Whatever the objections of yesterday’s men, this is how foreign policy should be done.


----------



## Journeyman

Old Sweat said:
			
		

> Column: Courage and conviction in foreign policy


_Excellent_ post.  Thanks for sharing.



And yes, I had to look up "cavilling"    ;D


----------



## CougarKing

Seems there are still Ukrainian troops still holding out in some places in the Crimean peninsula., aside from the two aforementioned trapped Ukrainian warships and the other Ukrainian airbase featured in this video...

National Post



> *Ukrainian base in Crimea under siege by Russian soldiers; no shots have been fired so far: reports*
> 
> KYIV, Ukraine — *A Russian military truck broke down the gates of a Ukrainian base in the Crimean port city of Sevastopol and the installation is under siege by Russians on Friday, the Interfax news agency reported. No shots have been fired.
> 
> About 100 Ukrainian troops are stationed at the base in Sevastopol, Interfax reported, citing a duty officer and Ukraine’s defense ministry. About 20 “attackers” threw stun grenades, the report said.*
> 
> The Ukrainians barricaded themselves inside one of their barracks, and their commander began negotiations, Interfax said.
> 
> Russia has been swept up in patriotic fervor for bringing Crimea, its old imperial jewel, back into its territory – as tens of thousands of people thronged Red Square in Moscow on Friday waving flags and chanting “Crimea is Russia!” while a parliamentary leader promised the peninsula would be welcomed as an “equal subject” of Russia.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## Edward Campbell

I'm not sure what president Obama is supposed to have done.

For Russia/Putin this is a _*vital* strategic_ matter: the enduringly important warm water port. For the US led West it is just another regional crisis.

Russia has, according to various reports, moved somewhere between 5,000 and 30,000 troops into Crimea. That's not enough, and it wasn't fast enough, for the _coup de main_ that I think Putin and Lavarov wanted ... but it is much, much more than Europe/NATO and the US could have managed in the same time frame. 

But NATO troops are, never were, in the cards. For a whole host of social, economic, partisan political and historical reasons Europe is hugely divided on this issue. 







There is lots of finger wagging but there is no consensus that anything should be done.

I also think that Prime Minister Harper has been amongst the most consistent and sensible of Western leaders. He has identified this for what it is, wanton aggression, but he has ruled out the use of force. He's a realist.

Sending a few warships and some money is about the best that I think any leader could manage.


Edit: format


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Two Femen protesters were arrested in Crimea’s capital Simferopol on Thursday after staging a topless demonstration against Russia’s intervention in Ukraine in front of the regional parliament. 

Photos  here. Note nudity and violence involved.


----------



## daftandbarmy

I like the New Yorker... they're so un-American. 

Oh, and they're one of the few top drawer publications that you can read online for free... that's good too   ;D

Crimea and the Hysteria of History

Well, that was fast. At the beginning of the year, it seemed apt to meditate on the catastrophes of a century past, and on the chance that we might, once again, be passengers on some Titanic of history, with a small flaw in the hull opened by some unforeseen iceberg. And it seemed worth stressing that what had brought the ship down—in short, what made 1914 happen—was, above all, the vulnerability of open societies to the panicked appeal to honor and the fear of humiliation. “The relentless emphasis on shame and face, on position and credibility, on the dread of being perceived as weak sounds an icy note through the rhetoric of 1914—from the moment Franz Ferdinand is shot to the moment the troops are sent to the Western Front,” I wrote in the magazine. “When someone says, ‘Ram the iceberg! We can’t afford to let it make us look weak,’ it’s time to run for the deck.” 


And here we are, chilly breezes blowing indeed. With Ukraine and Crimea suddenly looming as potential Sarajevos, the usual rhetoric of credibility and the horrors of appeasement comes blaring from the usual quarters. People who, a week ago, could not have told you if Crimea belonged to Ukraine—who maybe thought, based on a vague memory of reading Chekhov, that it was Russian all along—are now acting as though the integrity of a Ukrainian Crimea is an old and obvious American interest. What they find worse than our credibility actually being at stake is that we might not act as though it always is. The ins and outs, the explication of Ukrainian specificities—the expulsion of the Crimean Tatars, Khrushchev’s gift of Crimea to Ukraine in 1954—must be left to those who know them. But certain historical continuities appear at once to anyone with a memory of history’s grosser follies. 

Russia, as ugly, provocative, and deserving of condemnation as its acts may be, seems to be behaving as Russia has always behaved, even long before the Bolsheviks arrived. Indeed, Russia is behaving as every regional power in the history of human regions has always behaved, maximizing its influence over its neighbors—in this case, a neighbor with a large chunk of its ethnic countrymen.

In response, we should be doing what sane states should always be doing: searching for the most plausible war-avoiding, nonviolent arrangement, even at the cost of looking wishy-washy. If we transfer the complexities of Ukraine to somewhere we know better—imagine French-speaking Quebec nationalists insisting on ousting a government with a large Anglophone-Canadian contingent—we may see that the simple view is likely to sink a ship with a lot of passengers. The parallel with the failure of appeasement in the thirties is false, because that circumstance was so particular to its moment. The underlying truth then was that there was no point in appeasing Hitler because there was no possibility of appeasing him. The German Army was the most powerful force in Europe, indeed, in the world, and Hitler had long before decided on a general European war. He wanted one, and for him it was only a question, at best, of delaying it until his odds were marginally better. If Putin wants a general European war, we will know it when he invades a NATO nation. There is no shortage of real trip wires in the region, and no need to discover new ones. 

One should be similarly skeptical about the eager talk of a renewed Cold War. The point of the Cold War, at least as it was explained by the Cold Warriors, was that it wasn’t a confrontation of great global powers but, rather, something more significant and essential: a struggle of values, waged on a global scale, between totalitarians and liberals. Russia as a nation was incidental—if the Soviets had given up Marxism and on the utopian (or dystopian) remaking of the world, and had been content to act as a regular power, we would have had no war, cold or hot. That, anyway, was what the Cold Warriors claimed—indeed, those who saw Soviet ideology as mere Russian behavior were regarded as historically naïve. And here we are, with a restored Russia, paranoid about encirclement, increasing their leverage in the neighborhood. It may be ugly and it may be wrong, and Ukraine deserves the moral support that small nations always deserve when they are bullied—but it is also historically normal. If we become hysterical every time historical forces assert themselves, there will be no end to the hysteria.

For a great many people, in the past and in the present, it is hard to resist the thrill of war fever, the excitement of “seriousness,” and the call of history—the romance of the iceberg even as it sinks the boat. The most shocking thing about the onset of the First World War, a century later, is how many intellectuals and ideologues—people we would now call pundits—were delighted by its arrival. As I’ve written, the intellectuals of 1914 didn’t want the moral equivalent of war; they wanted war as a way of driving out moral equivalence, of ending relativism and decadence and materialism. They exulted in the moral clarity of the coming confrontation after the debasing decades of bourgeois pleasures, and they welcomed the end of their long holiday from history. 

We know the price they paid. The worst pretense of empire is that every rattle on the edges is a death knell to the center. This is absurd, and it is dangerous because it creates the kind of melodramatic hysteria that leads to self-slaughter. The pressures of modern life have led fourteen-year-old kids to no longer say to each other anything as extended as “calm down.” Now, in moments of potential panic, they just say, “Calm.” It’s sound advice. Calm. 

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/comment/2014/03/crimea-and-the-hysteria-of-history.html


----------



## devil39

Retired AF Guy said:
			
		

> Two Femen protesters were arrested in Crimea’s capital Simferopol on Thursday after staging a topless demonstration against Russia’s intervention in Ukraine in front of the regional parliament.
> 
> Photos  here. Note nudity and violence involved.



The sequence of three photos of the crazy old man coming up the stairs and choking out the protester is unreal... a little bit emotional?


----------



## devil39

And further would indicate that there is enough "human tinder" potential to start something even more serious than we are currently seeing.....


----------



## vonGarvin

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> For Russia/Putin this is a _*vital* strategic_ matter: the enduringly important warm water port. For the US led West it is just another regional crisis.


And Putin doesn't give one fraction of a f*ck what anyone else thinks.  And we (the West) bought the Ukrainian Protest propaganda as fact.


As this video goes to show, it's high quality, there's the sombre music, and all the key words are hit ("freedom"..."dictatorship"...)

When in fact the president chose a trade deal with Russia.

"I am the Ukrainian.  The native of Kyiv"  




Gimme a break.


----------



## devil39

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> For Russia/Putin this is a _*vital* strategic_ matter: the enduringly important warm water port. For the US led West it is just another regional crisis.
> 
> Russia has, according to various reports, moved somewhere between 5,000 and 30,000 troops into Crimea. That's not enough, and it wasn't fast enough, for the _coup de main_ that I think Putin and Lavarov wanted ... but it is much, much more than Europe/NATO and the US could have managed in the same time frame.
> 
> But NATO troops are, never were, in the cards. For a whole host of social, economic, partisan political and historical reasons Europe is hugely divided on this issue.



I think that the Russians have pulled off the closest example of a "coup de main"  in the Crimea they could have hoped for.  The impediments that they are dealing with right now do not appear to be much more than speed bumps.   If all that was desired by Russia was the Crimea....then as others have stated, quite well played.  

Agree on NATO....non starter.


----------



## observor 69

Deleted, out of date comment.


----------



## Kirkhill

"The commons who sat in the chapter house (of Westminster Abbey).....was in a restive mood....merchants, knights, county gentry....put forward a remarkable series of reforms and legal processes against royal government and those they felt were corrupting it......The commons began by giving one another oaths mutual support in the chapter house, before compiling all of their grievances about corruption and misgovernment in a single lenthy petition.           Then they elected as their speaker Sir Peter de la Mare....
All those accused by the commons were brought to trial before parliament in June 1376.  When de la Mare was asked who brought charges against the accused, he replied that they did so 'in common'.  Thus the process of impeachment before parliament was born."

Dan Hodges Jones, "The Plantagenets: The Kings Who Made England", William Collins 2012, pp 517-523 ff.

Edit to offer apologies to the author: Dan Jones.


----------



## vonGarvin

Posted without further comment.  This is a photo from Twitter, and is allegedly on the road between Kerch and Simferopol, Crimea


----------



## Kirkhill

> The Pope! How many divisions has he got?


  Stalin to Pierre Laval 1935.

Stalin's answer to his own question.



> Ideas are more powerful than guns. We would not let our enemies have guns, why should we let them have ideas?
> As quoted in Quotations for Public Speakers : A Historical, Literary, and Political Anthology (2001) by Robert G. Torricelli, p. 121



Stalin's weapon of choice.



> The press must grow day in and day out — it is our Party's sharpest and most powerful weapon.
> Speech at The Twelfth Congress of the R.C.P.(B.) (19 April 1923)


----------



## Kirkhill

> 16.10 Russia's foreign ministry has just said the following:
> 
> And a great response from Vitaly Churkin, the Russian ambassador to the UN. I thought a canard was the French word for a duck; it also means "an unfounded rumour or story". So now you know.
> QuoteRussian Ambassador to the UN Vitaly Churkin says the statements, ascribed to him, that Moscow and Kiev have severed diplomatic relations between them are a canard.
> I've never discussed diplomatic relations either in public, or during Security Council meetings, so the canard in question is totally unfounded.



Daily Telegraph

So, apparently Russia and Ukraine never severed diplomatic communications.....

But there again all those troops coming down the highway from Kerch in unmarked trucks and uniforms are not Russian soldiers but self-defence volunteers.

It might appear that the Russians are having major discipline problems in that event. A lot of their gear and people seem to have gone off reservation.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Technoviking said:
			
		

> Posted without further comment.  This is a photo from Twitter, and is allegedly on the road between Kerch and Simferopol, Crimea


With some videos claimed to be Ukrainian troops moving from one place to another (and what looks like a police car escort for one of the convoys leaving a base leaves me scratching my head).


----------



## a_majoor

The Pope! How many divisions has he got?

Pope Pius XII said, 


> "You may tell my son Joseph he will meet my divisions in heaven. ..."



And Pope John Paul !! did not need any divisions of soldiers to free Poland.

in the end, _ideas_ are the power behind everything. Let's hope the people of Ukraine can hang onto the winning ideas of freedom from oppression, individual and property rights and the Rule of Law.


----------



## Old EO Tech

Well if I was the Ukrainian PM, and those are truly renegade Russian soldiers or armed civilians, that makes them nothing more than terrorist/criminals, and Mr. Putin would have no issues with us arresting terrorists just like he battles terrorism on his home soil :-/


----------



## Kirkhill

This is distressing.  I find myself in agreement with a Liberal.  Ah well. Tant pis.

Chrystia Freeland - New York Times Sunday Review.



> KIEV, Ukraine — OVER the past two weeks, residents of Kiev have lived through its bloodiest conflict since the Second World War, watched their reviled president flee and a new, provisional team take charge, seen Russian troops take control of part of the country, and heard Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, assert his right to take further military action. Yet the Ukrainian capital is calm.
> 
> Revolutions often falter on Day 2, as Ukraine has already bitterly learned twice — once after the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union and then again in 2005 after the Orange Revolution. That could happen again, but the new revolution is enjoying a prolonged honeymoon, thanks to Mr. Putin, whose intervention in Ukrainian foreign and trade policy provoked the uprising in the first place, and whose invasion has, paradoxically, increased its chance of long-term success.
> 
> Kiev smells like a smoky summer camp, from the bonfires burning to keep the demonstrators still out on Independence Square warm, but every day it is tidier. Sidewalks in the city center are checkerboarded with neat piles of bricks that had been dug up to serve as missiles and are now being put back.
> 
> The police, despised for their corruption and repression, are returning to work. Their squad cars often sport Ukrainian flags and many have a “self-defense” activist from the protests with them. A Western ambassador told me that the activists were there to protect the cops from angry citizens. My uncle, who lives here, said they were also there to stop the police from slipping back into their old ways and demanding bribes.
> 
> This revolution may yet be eaten by its own incompetence or by infighting. A presidential election is scheduled for May, and the race, negative campaigning and all, has quietly begun. The oligarchs, some of whom have cannily been appointed governors of the potentially restive eastern regions, are jockeying for power. But for now, Ukrainians, who were brought together by shared hatred of the former president, Viktor F. Yanukovych, are being brought closer still by the Kremlin-backed invasion.
> 
> “Yanukovych freed Ukraine and Putin is uniting it,” said Iegor Soboliev, a 37-year-old ethnic Russian who heads a government commission to vet officials of the former regime. “Ukraine is functioning not through its government but through the self-organization of its people and their sense of human decency.”
> 
> Mr. Soboliev is a former investigative journalist who grew frustrated that carefully documented revelations of government misbehavior — which he says “wasn’t merely corruption, it was marauding” — were having no impact. He and a few friends formed Volya, a movement dedicated to creating a country of “responsible citizens” and a “state worthy of their trust.”
> 
> “People in Odessa, Mykolaiv, Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk are coming out to defend their country,” Mr. Soboliev said. “They have never liked the western Ukrainian, Galician point of view. But they are showing themselves to be equally patriotic. They are defending their country from foreign aggression. Fantastical things are happening.”
> 
> This conflict could flare into Europe’s first major war of the 21st century, and Crimea may never again be part of Ukraine. But no matter what happens over the next few months, or even years, Mr. Putin and his vision of an authoritarian, Russian-dominated former Soviet space have already lost. Democratic, independent Ukraine, and the messy, querulous (but also free and law-abiding) European idea have won.
> 
> So far, the only certain victory is the ideological one. Many outsiders have interpreted the past three months as a Yugoslav-style ethno-cultural fight. It is nothing of the kind. This is a political struggle. Notwithstanding the bloodshed, the best parallel is with Prague’s Velvet Revolution of 1989. The emphasis there on changing society’s moral tone, and each person’s behavior, was likewise central to the protests that overthrew Mr. Yanukovych.
> 
> For Ukraine, as well as for Russia and much of the former U.S.S.R., the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was only a partial revolution. The U.S.S.R. vanished, but the old nomenklatura, and its venal, authoritarian style of governance remained. Mr. Putin is explicitly drawing on that heritage and fitfully trying to reshape it into a new state capitalist system that can compete and flourish globally. An alliance with Mr. Yanukovych’s Ukraine was an essential part of that plan.
> 
> That effort has now failed. Whatever Mr. Putin achieves in Ukraine, it will not be partnership with a Slavic younger brother enthusiastically joining in his neo-imperialist, neo-Soviet project.
> 
> The unanswered question is whether Ukraine can be a practical success. The economy needs a total structural overhaul — and that huge shift needs to be accomplished while either radically transforming, or creating from scratch, effective government institutions.
> 
> This is the work Central Europe and the Baltic states did in the 1990s. Their example shows that it can be done, but it takes a long time, requires a patient and united populace, and probably also the promise of European partnership.
> 
> The good news is that Ukraine may finally have achieved the necessary social unity. The bad news is that it isn’t clear if Europe, struggling with its economic malaise and ambivalence toward its newish eastern members, has the stomach to tutor and support Ukraine as it did the Visegrad countries — Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland — and the Baltic states.
> 
> THIS should be Ukraine’s biggest problem. But with Russian forces in Crimea, the more urgent question Kiev faces is whether it will find itself at war.
> 
> The answer depends in large part on Russia. Sergei Kovalev, a former dissident who became a member of the Russian Parliament in the 1990s, once told me that a good rule for understanding Russian strongmen was that “eating increases the appetite.” Mr. Putin has thus far lived up to that aphorism.
> 
> Thanks to his agility in Syria, his successful hosting of the Sochi Olympics and even, at first, his masterful manipulation of Mr. Yanukovych, Mr. Putin has won himself something of a reputation as a master strategist. But he has made a grave miscalculation in Ukraine.
> 
> For one thing, Mr. Putin misunderstands the complexities of language and ethnicity in Ukraine. Certainly, Ukraine is diverse, and language, history and culture play a role in some of its internal differences — just as they do in blue- and red-state America, in northern and southern Italy, or in the north and the south of England.
> 
> The error is to believe there is a fratricidal separation between Russian and Ukrainian speakers and to assume that everyone who speaks Russian at home or voted for Mr. Yanukovych would prefer to be a citizen of Mr. Putin’s Russia. The reality of Ukraine is that everyone in the country speaks and understands Russian and everyone at least understands Ukrainian. On television, in Parliament, and in the streets, bilingual discussions are commonplace.
> 
> Mr. Putin seems to have genuinely believed that Ukraine was Yugoslavia, and that his forces would be warmly welcomed by at least half of the country. As Leonid D. Kuchma, a former president of Ukraine and once a senior member of the Soviet military-industrial complex, told me: “His advisers must have thought they would be met in eastern Ukraine with flowers as liberators. The reality is 180 degrees opposite.”
> 
> Many foreign policy realists wish the Ukrainian revolution hadn’t happened. They would rather Ukraine had more fully entered the corrupt, authoritarian zone the Kremlin is seeking to consolidate. But we don’t get to choose for Ukraine — Ukrainians do, and they have. Now we have to choose for ourselves.
> 
> Chrystia Freeland is the author of “Sale of the Century: Russia’s Wild Ride From Communism to Capitalism” and a Liberal member of the Canadian Parliament.


----------



## vonGarvin

The only thing Yanukovich did was to ink a better trade deal. With Russia. Ukraine is piss broke and Russia, rightly or wrongly, offered a better deal than the EU.  The part of Ukraine that voted against Yanukovich in the election protested. And things went south. Did the government start shooting? Or was it a bloc within the protest?  I don't know and I don't care.
I'm not sure where property rights fits into this. But I do know that the so called Maidan group had (has?) a slick propaganda machine.
It's a regional conflict.  An insurrection from one part of the country led Russia move into Crimea to protect its fleet. And, fortuitously for them, many in Crimea welcome them. But they probably dont really care about them, because if they did, Russia would have also moved into the lower Don River valley, Kharkov,  etc.
Leave them be, and once next winter hits, we'll see how successful this insurrection will have been.


----------



## KerryBlue

Technoviking said:
			
		

> The only thing Yanukovich did was to ink a better trade deal. With Russia. Ukraine is piss broke and Russia, rightly or wrongly, offered a better deal than the EU.  The part of Ukraine that voted against Yanukovich in the election protested. And things went south. Did the government start shooting? Or was it a bloc within the protest?  I don't know and I don't care.
> I'm not sure where property rights fits into this. But I do know that the so called Maidan group had (has?) a slick propaganda machine.



I'm sorry but I'm going to interject on the side of the Maidan protestors, why? Because many of my friends went over to join them, and spent 2-3 months there, most staying even after the shooting started. The Protestors of Maidan understand that the trade deal with Russia was a better economic move for them, I have no doubt about that. BUT by taking that trade deal and continuing to align themselves with Russia Yanukovich and his boys, would continue to run the Ukrainian Economy into the ground to better themselves financially. Successful independent business owners would find themselves being removed from the business that they had started by corrupted friends of the government or they'd find themselves paying protection the mafia, which would in turn kick back money to corrupted members of government. Students in Ukraine cannot afford university, or to pay of their debts because the jobs in Ukraine were going to family and friends of corrupted politicians. But at the same time those students weren't being given visa's or permission to leave the country and to find jobs somewhere else around the world. 

When maidan started it was a peaceful protest, where Ukrainians of all ages came together to speak up against a corrupted Soviet Style Government. The maidan propaganda machine is so effective because it is being run by people who care, who are sick and tired of the old system and want change to make their lives better. While no doubt existed that the Russian Trade deal would be better economically, for Ukrainians it would result in no change in the quality of their lives. They would still be oppressed, and stuck in a system that has been eradicated in other ex-soviet bloc countries (i.e. Poland, Lithuania). Yanukovich was elected to power because of his promise to align with the EU and the west, and for a while he was going through all the steps to make it look like it was legitimately going to happen he pulled the plug at the last second because of Russia. 

Russia has been pulling his strings, and as a matter of fact are primarily the reason he was installed as the President of Ukraine. Look back to the Orange revolution of 2004-2005. Where massive corruption and tampering were found during the "democratic elections" most of it being perpetrated by the Russian backed  Yanukovich. When he ran again in 2009, his campaign again was again accused by many people of being rigged in the ballot run off, financially corrupted and backed by Russia, and when it came down to him vs. Yulia Tymoshenko in the final run off vote for president he refused to debate with her. His whole rise to power in Ukraine is shrouded in corruption and fraud and the people of the west finally had enough and stepped up to protest and bring an end to Russian interference in Ukraine. 

People keep looking at this as a government v. government, or ideology v ideology where we should be looking at this on a more personnel level. We should be looking at the quality of life of the Ukrainian people, a people who have for almost the entire history of the country been oppressed by one country or another. Be it the Poles, Belarus, Soviets, the people of Ukraine have always been oppressed and have finally taken a decisive stand those who oppress them, and as a result one of the historic oppressor's is back at their usual game of trying to control something that is no longer theirs and that they gave away. 
 :2c:


----------



## wannabe SF member

Technoviking said:
			
		

> The only thing Yanukovich did was to ink a better trade deal. With Russia. Ukraine is piss broke and Russia, rightly or wrongly, offered a better deal than the EU.  The part of Ukraine that voted against Yanukovich in the election protested. And things went south. Did the government start shooting? Or was it a bloc within the protest?  I don't know and I don't care.
> I'm not sure where property rights fits into this. But I do know that the so called Maidan group had (has?) a slick propaganda machine.
> It's a regional conflict.  An insurrection from one part of the country led Russia move into Crimea to protect its fleet. And, fortuitously for them, many in Crimea welcome them. But they probably dont really care about them, because if they did, Russia would have also moved into the lower Don River valley, Kharkov,  etc.
> Leave them be, and once next winter hits, we'll see how successful this insurrection will have been.



+1

I used to be a regular reader of the National Post but this whole conflict turned me off mainstream western media in a big way. Everywhere I look I'm seeing propaganda by people who support the western protesters on a purely ideological basis. Everywhere the same creepy sounding prophecies about Russia having lost even though they're the clear winners, about some sort of monolithic democratic bloc having triumphed in the battle of ideas. The level of delusions exhibited by our media has been worrying. Seriously, it all feels surreal how much supposedly educated journalists can so quickly suspend critical judgment and just jump on the bandwagon.

You're right Technoviking, the strength of the Euromaidan movement has been their ability to spin events the right way from the start and, doing so, to acquire the support of influential backers on our side.


----------



## McG

Building on the new/second cold war speculation, Russia is contemplating a halt to US military inspections conducted under a treaty.  There is also some speculation that Russia needs European oil money more than Europe needs Russian oil and that the tendency for Russia to turn-off the pipe is more likely to accelerate permanent substitution through North American natural gas.

More signs of rising tensions as warning shots are fired against OSCE observers, a Ukraine border patrol plane comes under small-arms fire, and the “not Russian” soldiers are becoming more restrictive of media.  The same article raises specific questions about deliberate exclusion of dissenting opinions from political representation in the Crimean government, and notes the population already rejected union with Russia in a previous referendum.





> Crimean opposition parliamentarians say most lawmakers were barred from the besieged building, both for the vote that installed Aksyonov and the one a week later that declared Crimea part of Russia, and the results were falsified. Both votes took place behind closed doors.
> 
> Crimea has a narrow ethnic Russian majority, but it is far from clear that most residents want to be ruled from Moscow. When they were last asked in 1991, they voted for independence along with the rest of Ukraine. Western countries have dismissed the upcoming referendum as illegal and likely to be falsified.



Reports are also indicating Russian build-up has included the amphibious landing of reinforcement in the Crimean peninsula.  The article concludes with some off-topic speculation from the NATO Secretary-General as to what this might mean for alliance members who had all been planning military capability reductions to manage cost.





> Speaking on BBC on Saturday, NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said that while there is no military response to the recent events of Crimea, the crisis was a reminder of threats to European security and stability.
> 
> “I do believe that politicians all over NATO will now rethink the whole thing about investment in security and defense,” he told the BBC. “Obviously, defense comes at a cost but insecurity is much more expensive.”


----------



## vonGarvin

LOL @ "not Russian" soldiers.  +300 inbound!


----------



## vonGarvin

KerryBlue: you only confirm for me that Maidan was les than honest. Foreigners going over to protest? And here I thouht it was Vox Populi....


----------



## McG

Putin just needs a better spokesman to deliver his message.


----------



## Bird_Gunner45

On the lighter side, the "Oromocto Spouses" facebook page featured wives who were stressed out because their husbands had told them they were going to be going on "tour" to Ukraine soon... Would have been an ideal time to stir the pot!


----------



## Edward Campbell

devil39 said:
			
		

> I think that the Russians have pulled off the closest example of a "coup de main"  in the Crimea they could have hoped for.  The impediments that they are dealing with right now do not appear to be much more than speed bumps.   If all that was desired by Russia was the Crimea....then as others have stated, quite well played.
> 
> Agree on NATO....non starter.




I agree, it was as close as anyone was going to get. I'm not sure what Russia's/Putin's _wish list_ was (still is), but it certainly included, as a bare minimum, absolute Russian *control* over Crimea.

I guess Russia/Putin will be happy enough with a weak, dismembered Ukraine which is not in the EU or NATO.

Ukraine is, as others have noted, an economic disaster zone: no one really _wants_ it ~ that's why the EU _offer_ was so poor. The Germans and Finns feel they are supporting enough _have nots_, they really don't need another, especially not another when Russia/Putin wants them left alone.

The sort of _liberal democracy_ that we, Anglo-Americans, take for granted is not easily transplanted. There are at least as many _illiberal_ democracies in Europe as there are _liberal_ ones ~ and even within the _liberal democracies_ there are nuances of meaning of both _liberal_ and _democracy_. It's not clear to me that Poland, just as an example, has the _history_ to make _liberal_ democracy a nice, neat fit. It seems far more likely, to me, that it will follow France, Italy, Spain and others into the _illiberal democracy_ group, so I'm guessing, will Ukraine, if it remains a democracy at all.

(There are, by the way, a few _conservative democracies_, too, but they are all in Asia.)


Edit: grammar  :-[


----------



## The Bread Guy

Technoviking said:
			
		

> KerryBlue: you only confirm for me that Maidan was les than honest. Foreigners going over to protest? And here I thouht it was Vox Populi....


That saidIf this happening, it's not just _one_ side with "foreign volunteers" reportedly coming to "offer a hand" - this, from Serbian media.


> Several volunteers from Serbia arrived in the city of Sevastopol, to help local self-defense units and Cossacks to ensure order at checkpoints around the city, ITAR-TASS reported.
> 
> “We represent ‘Chetnik Movement’ organization, you can compare them with the Cossacks in Russia. Our goal – to provide support on behalf of the Serbian people to the Russian people. Now you have the same thing as it was in Serbia. West and the EU give money to the opposition and tell them how people live well in Europe, but it’s all a lie,” said the leader of Serb volunteers Milutin Malishich.
> 
> “We came at the invitation of the Cossacks. During the civil war in Yugoslavia, many Russian volunteers came to support the Serbian people. We are a small nation and we can not send a large number of people, but we have a great love for the Russian people,” said Malishich ....


Hmmm ....  Chetniks, invited by Cossacks, offering to help maintain law and order in (at its kindest) a contested area with a mixed ethnic makeup (including a not-insignificant Sunni Mulsim population with long-time roots and history of getting jerked around) - what could _possibly_ go wrong?


----------



## KerryBlue

Technoviking said:
			
		

> KerryBlue: you only confirm for me that Maidan was les than honest. Foreigners going over to protest? And here I thouht it was Vox Populi....



Sorry should have been clearer, the people I know who went over did not go to join into the protest rather they were their as photographers and journalists WITH proper credentials given to them. 

This piece was written by an acquaintances, a Ukrainian immigrant, and musician who was there. Give it a read. 

http://www.nowtoronto.com/news/story.cfm?content=196955


----------



## OldSolduer

The Cetniks eh.

Will the Ustachi join the Ukranians?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Jim Seggie said:
			
		

> The Cetniks eh.
> 
> Will the Ustachi join the Ukranians?


Well, that would reinforce the "Catholics on one side of the fracas" bit of the analogy comparing Ukraine to one of the key players during the (latest) Balkan breakup.

Meanwhile, a bit of background on someone claiming to be the commander of the "Crimean Self Defense Volunteers"....


> .... Vladimir Karpushenko was recognized by journalists as the ‘Commander of the Crimean Self Defense Volunteers, while he is also the Deputy Commander of the 810th Brigade, deployed in Crimea.  Vladimir Karpushenko is a “Hero of Russia”, appearing in a Wikipedia listing of Heroes, here.  Reason: “… courage and heroism displayed during a counterterrorism operation in the North Caucasus…”[11]  “Герой России Карпушенко Владимир Валерьевич”. Warheroes.ru ....


He could also be on PD leave, too - last mentioned as a LCOL in the Russian Marines as of late 2011 here (original in Russian here) ....


----------



## vonGarvin

KerryBlue: fair enough.

And to clarify my own view: *all* sides (not both) are pumping out propaganda on this, not just Mr Putin.


----------



## Kirkhill

Technoviking said:
			
		

> KerryBlue: fair enough.
> 
> And to clarify my own view: *all* sides (not both) are pumping out propaganda on this, not just Mr Putin.



TV - 'Twas ever thus. When did that stop us from choosing up sides in the past?

I fail to see the difference between "Ich bin ein Berliner" and offering to supply similarly empty gestures to those members of Comecon that are now members of NATO.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> TV - 'Twas ever thus. When did that stop us from choosing up sides in the past?
> 
> I fail to see the difference between "Ich bin ein Berliner" and offering to supply similarly empty gestures to those members of Comecon that are now members of NATO.




There was, very briefly, room for useful empty gestures (bluffs) about a week ago. We, the US led West, lacked nerve or failed to appreciate the situation or decided that dithering is a productive activity ... I don't know why we didn't act (bluff) when the bluffs (visits to Kiev by Herman Van Rompuy (President of the European Council) and Anders Fogh Rasmussen (NATO Secretary General) would have required a bit of nerve, would have needed (more than just) a touch of decisiveness and _might_ well have given President Putin pause to wonder a bit ... which may have been enough. The visits would have been empty gestures, but they might have worked. It's too late now.






But, honestly, there wasn't much of
anything *he* could have done.


----------



## vonGarvin

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> I fail to see the difference between "Ich bin ein Berliner" and offering to supply similarly empty gestures to those members of Comecon that are now members of NATO.



[German Geek mode]
In German, adding the indefinite article to "Berliner" means that you are speaking about a pastry named for Berlin, where if you leave it out, you are speaking of a person from Berlin.  So, instead of saying "Ich bin Berliner", which would have meanr "I am a Berliner", instead Kennedy said "Ich bin ein Berliner", which means "I am a jelly-doughnut".
[/German Geek mode]

You raise a good point, of course, but I just want others to be clear that the woman, The Native of Kyiv, is a product of a slick machine.  But there are a few simple facts:
Yanukovich made a good deal with Russia.
*Any* deal with Russia will be viewed as suspect by western Ukrainians
*All* sides have opportunists ready to exploit the situation for personal gain
Russia cares less than one iota for *any* resident of Ukraine, Russian, Moldovan or otherwise.
Russia cares very dearly about her ports in Crimea

(edited for sloppy spelling)


----------



## Kirkhill

But what happens to Putin's reputation if the Russian Mob (and the Russian mob) wake up to discover that as a result of Putin's machinations he has Sevastopol but the Berlin Wall has moved east to the Dniepr?  Has he won or has he lost?


By the way, I happen to like jelly doughnuts.


----------



## vonGarvin

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> But what happens to Putin's reputation if the Russian Mob (and the Russian mob) wake up to discover that as a result of Putin's machinations he has Sevastopol but the Berlin Wall has moved east to the Dniepr?  Has he won or has he lost?
> 
> 
> By the way, I happen to like jelly doughnuts.


As long as Europe wants his gas (and the Mob's gas), it matters not where any walls are, I think...

And, as for Berliners....


----------



## Kirkhill




----------



## wannabe SF member

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> But what happens to Putin's reputation if the Russian Mob (and the Russian mob) wake up to discover that as a result of Putin's machinations he has Sevastopol but the Berlin Wall has moved east to the Dniepr?  Has he won or has he lost?
> 
> 
> By the way, I happen to like jelly doughnuts.




Is that such a significant change from the staus Quo given everything that happened beforehand? 

Consider the following:

The baltic states are in NATO's pockets and, as such, untouchable (That or I seriously underestimated Obama's ability to abandon allies)
The Western Ukrainians' succesful ploy of wresting political power from the east would, in all likelihood, lead to the loss of Ukraine as a satellite
Belarus is firmly on the Russian side for now

The lines were, for the most part, already drawn, Putin, through careful maneuvering, merely managed to affect a small (but strategically significant) modification to the regional situation by safeguarding his Black Sea port for good.

Will this particular incident become more significant in light of future events? Perhaps. But the pundits and media houses who have been peddling the idea that this is a seismic event in world politics are being crassly sensationalistic and those who have tried to categorize the chain of events as being part of some ongoing greater ideological struggles _à la_ Cold War are being blindly ideological themselves. 

Putin played his game well, secured a vital strategic asset and, doing so, got a nice boost in personal popularity. That's it, that's all.

Edit for spelling


----------



## Kirkhill

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> There was, very briefly, room for useful empty gestures (bluffs) about a week ago. We, the US led West, lacked nerve or failed to appreciate the situation or decided that dithering is a productive activity ... I don't know why we didn't act (bluff) when the bluffs (visits to Kiev by Herman Van Rompuy (President of the European Council) and Anders Fogh Rasmussen (NATO Secretary General) would have required a bit of nerve, would have needed (more than just) a touch of decisiveness and _might_ well have given President Putin pause to wonder a bit ... which may have been enough. The visits would have been empty gestures, but they might have worked. It's too late now.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> But, honestly, there wasn't much of
> anything *he* could have done.



I don't think I agree.  I think there is an increasing amount of opportunity for action.  As the situation settles in to a Ukraine vs Ukraine discussion,  and Ukrainians start to vote with their feet,   I think there is ample opportunity to offer material support the ex-Comecon NATO countries and to make gestures such as that proposed by William Hague (increasing NATO defence budgets) or increasing the training exercise or forward position of resources, or Canada offering to take on an additional Baltic Patrol or two.....or......

On the economic front - support for eastern europe....

And Inky, 

Sorry, but I grew up in an era where ideology was not a bad thing.  We called it "believing in something".   But that is so 1960's I guess.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Starting the day w/an editorial cartoon ....


----------



## Edward Campbell

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> I don't think I agree.  I think there is an increasing amount of opportunity for action.  As the situation settles in to a Ukraine vs Ukraine discussion,  and Ukrainians start to vote with their feet,   I think there is ample opportunity to offer material support the ex-Comecon NATO countries and to make gestures such as that proposed by William Hague (increasing NATO defence budgets) or increasing the training exercise or forward position of resources, or Canada offering to take on an additional Baltic Patrol or two.....or......
> 
> On the economic front - support for eastern europe....
> 
> And Inky,
> 
> Sorry, but I grew up in an era where ideology was not a bad thing.  We called it "believing in something".   But that is so 1960's I guess.




Oh, of course we can "take action" and "make gestures" but Ukraine is a regional _problem_, maybe even a _crisis_, for the US led West while it is a *vital strategic issue* for Russia. We were always in the _gesture_ business while Putin/Russia was always, of necessity, decisive and focused.

Now, I believe that the strategic cost of depriving Russia of Crimea's ports would not be worth the gains. Russia can, at great expense to be sure, develop a sea port on the Russian Black Sea coast. We had no good _strategic_ reason to force them into that option. Russia is a declining power. It is resource rich but culturally poor in terms of its political and economic culture. It is threatened, in Putin's mind, on three sides: by the US led West, by the Islamic South and by China. We may argue that we are not threatening anyone but I doubt it looks that way from inside the Kremlin. The threats from the Islamic South and China are very, very real. Russia has things China wants needs. China will be happy to pay for them ... but only for so long as Russia obeys the terms of its contracts. China is not Europe; Russia will only cut off China's gas once, after that it will be China's gas ... and oil, and minerals and, above all, water.


----------



## Journeyman

Inky said:
			
		

> The age of Nationalism is a bygone era .....





			
				Inky said:
			
		

> ...... part of some ongoing greater ideological struggles _à la_ Cold War are being blindly ideological themselves.



So you don't believe in nationalism or ideology.  How do you explain the crises and conflicts that have occurred throughout your entire life (assuming your profile age is correct)?

    op:


----------



## George Wallace

Journeyman said:
			
		

> So you don't believe in nationalism or ideology.  How do you explain the crises and conflicts that have occurred throughout your entire life (assuming your profile age is correct)?
> 
> op:



Interesting perspective on the part of Inky.   I have a feeling that the study of history, or even current events, are not his/her forte.  One doesn't have to look very far to see that nationalism is alive, even right here with our current Canadian predicament.  

I concur:

op:


----------



## Edward Campbell

I'm still trying to wrap my head around all this, but I'm sticking with this analysis:

     1. For Russia/Putin this is a _*vital* strategic interest_, worth all the risks he is taking and more; but

     2. For the US led West this is a _regional_, European, _problem_ that, almost, rises to the level of _crisis_. Not 'worth' much.

Do you remember when (1990) Gen (Ret'd) John de Chastelain went on TV, back during the _Oka_ crisis to explain to Canadians that, having been called out "in aid of the civil power," the CF _could_ not lose? It wasn't an option. The CF was, is the last resort in that situation. It was/is the same for Putin/Russia. It is not for the US led West. Plus, this is not as _black and white_ as some in the Western media make it appear. There is plenty of _wrong_ to go around, on all sides and not a whole lot of _right_.


----------



## YZT580

"For Russia/Putin this is a vital strategic interest, worth all the risks he is taking and more;"  

except he already had his Black Sea port.  There was no reason other than paranoia to believe that any change in Ukraine was going to affect that agreement.  Rather it is more likely he needed either a distraction for the Muscovites or with Obama and Cameron and Merkel at their respective helms he wants to see just how far he can go with rebuilding a Russian powerhouse.  So far, he has gotten away with everything he has attempted and at relatively little cost.  I see no reason for him to change tactics.  He will wait a little bit until the dust settles, whilst weathering the few months of token restrictions and then advance his line again in another direction.  He has slapped Obama in the face with Syria, Iran, and now the Crimea.  Why should he stop?


----------



## Edward Campbell

YZT580 said:
			
		

> "For Russia/Putin this is a vital strategic interest, worth all the risks he is taking and more;"
> 
> except he already had his Black Sea port.  There was no reason other than paranoia to believe that any change in Ukraine was going to affect that agreement.  Rather it is more likely he needed either a distraction for the Muscovites or with Obama and Cameron and Merkel at their respective helms he wants to see just how far he can go with rebuilding a Russian powerhouse.  So far, he has gotten away with everything he has attempted and at relatively little cost.  I see no reason for him to change tactics.  He will wait a little bit until the dust settles, whilst weathering the few months of token restrictions and then advance his line again in another direction.  He has slapped Obama in the face with Syria, Iran, and now the Crimea.  Why should he stop?




That's certainly a fully acceptable analysis; I see nothing wrong with it. But, I think mine is at least as valid.


----------



## GR66

YZT580 said:
			
		

> "For Russia/Putin this is a vital strategic interest, worth all the risks he is taking and more;"
> 
> except he already had his Black Sea port.  There was no reason other than paranoia to believe that any change in Ukraine was going to affect that agreement.  Rather it is more likely he needed either a distraction for the Muscovites or with Obama and Cameron and Merkel at their respective helms he wants to see just how far he can go with rebuilding a Russian powerhouse.  So far, he has gotten away with everything he has attempted and at relatively little cost.  I see no reason for him to change tactics.  He will wait a little bit until the dust settles, whilst weathering the few months of token restrictions and then advance his line again in another direction.  He has slapped Obama in the face with Syria, Iran, and now the Crimea.  Why should he stop?



No reason other than paranoia?  The Russian lease of the base in Sevastopol expires in 2042.  Public opinion in the Ukraine is deeply split along ethnic lines.  A democratically elected government concluded an economic deal to strengthen economic ties with Russia.  A portion of the population wanted to break that deal and develop closer economic ties with Western Europe instead.  The elected government was toppled by a popular (in the Western part of the country) revolution and a pro-EU government put in its place.  The pro-Western Ukrainians have been very vocal in their anti-Russian feelings.  They certainly have the historical right to have strong anti-Russian feelings.  Who's to say in 28 years that the Ukrainians will renew the Russian lease to Sevastopol?  Especially if that 28 years (a whole generation) is spent strengthening ties with Western Europe and struggling with a restive, pro-Russian minority in the East?  Who's to say that in 28 years of pro-Western economic integration that Ukraine is not by then a member of the EU...or even NATO?  Is that a potential cause for concern for Russia?  Should they feel secure about the fate of their warm-water port at Sevastopol?

I'm with Mr. Campbell that Russia has more direct strategic interest in Crimea than we in the West do.  I'm certainly not pro-Putin and certainly don't think that the previous Ukrainian government met with our Western standards of democracy.  But the fact is that we DID recognize the legitimacy of that government at the time and that they DID have the legal authority to conclude economic deals with Russia.  

It may be easy for us to pick the side we "like" in this unfortunate conflict, but by picking that side we must be aware that we are clearly also siding AGAINST another significant portion of the population that has its own legitimate wishes and desires for the future which may not be the same as what "our" side wants.  There is much more Grey than the Black and White that the media (and participants) would like us to believe in this conflict.


----------



## Kirkhill

I'm starting to sense that we are using "The West" too broadly.

I agree that Canada has less direct strategic interest in Crimea than does Russia.  Canada has less direct strategic interest anywhere than does anyone else on the planet.  (Part of  The Problem with the CAF).

However the closer you get to Crimea the more of a problem you perceive.   It is certainly a major problem for our friends that border Russia and Belarus.

Those friends, for good or for ill, have been afforded the same mutual defence guarantees that they gave us and that we gave Britain,  West Germany and the rest of Western Europe (minus the Swiss, Swedes, Finns and French).

What is the point of entering into treaties if you are not going to honour them? (Sorry for the use of that old-fashioned word).

Here's an article from Condoleeza Rice on the issue.

Push back is required.


----------



## muskrat89

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/03/10/russians-enter-town-north-crimea-say-ukrainians/



> KHERSON, UKRAINE –  Ukrainians in the Kherson province just north of Crimea say Russian operatives have moved into the territory, an incursion which, if true, could show Vladimir Putin has more than just the Black Sea peninsula in his sights.
> 
> Residents of the village of Chonhar, in the Kherson region of Ukraine, say Russian troops showed up last week in armored personnel carriers, prompting the dispatch of Ukrainian troops and a standoff.  The suspected Russian troops pulled back and established a checkpoint on a major road leading north from the Crimean capital of Simferopol.



This is interesting too, but I'm not familiar with Red Flag News - looks like an online version of a tabloid?

http://www.redflagnews.com/headlines/alert-30-russian-nuclear-bombers-amass-unusual-number-of-eams-being-broadcasted-to-us-naval-vessels-worldwide



> (by Susan Duclos, BIN) --  According to Turner Radio Network, Russia has amassed 30 nuclear bombers at an airfield adjacent to Russia’s Borisoglebsk national level nuclear weapons storage facility and US satellites have seen “numerous transfers from the storage facility to the aircraft.”
> 
> Is this Russia’s way of visibly showing they will strike out with nuclear weapons if attacked? Are they preparing for a retaliatory attack or their own offensive attacks?
> 
> As of March 4, 2014, according to the satellite imagery, there were only two bombers parked at that airport and now there are 30, loaded up and ready to strike, as evidenced by Auxiliary Power Units (APU’s) attached.


----------



## Journeyman

muskrat89 said:
			
		

> According to Turner Radio Network, Russia has amassed 30 nuclear bombers at an airfield adjacent to Russia’s Borisoglebsk national level nuclear weapons storage facility and US satellites have seen “numerous transfers from the storage facility to the aircraft.”


Sorry, but they _show_ one picture of two "bombers" (which look potentially photoshopped), then _claim_ that there's another picture with 30 bombers....with APUs.

Why not show the second photo?  Sorry, I want a bit more than "trust us, it's there" before hauling out the tac vest.


----------



## muskrat89

> Why not show the second photo?  Sorry, I want a bit more than "trust us, it's there" before hauling out the tac vest.





Thus my caveat: 





> looks like an online version of a tabloid?


----------



## MilEME09

Journeyman said:
			
		

> Sorry, but they _show_ one picture of two "bombers" (which look potentially photoshopped), then _claim_ that there's another picture with 30 bombers....with APUs.
> 
> Why not show the second photo?  Sorry, I want a bit more than "trust us, it's there" before hauling out the tac vest.



picture they did show is not shopped i verified via google earth. Then again looking at  Turner Radio Network's site it doesnt look that reliable


EDIT:

*Ukraine in near state of war, foreign minister says*

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2014/03/10/ukraine_in_near_state_of_war_foreign_minister_says.html



> KYIV, UKRAINE—Ukraine’s foreign minister said Monday that his country was practically in a state of war with Russia, as Moscow further ratcheted up pressure on Kyiv, claiming that Russian-leaning eastern regions have plunged into lawlessness.
> 
> Russian forces have effectively taken control of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in what has turned into Europe’s greatest geopolitical crisis since the end of the Cold War. On Sunday the region is to hold a referendum on whether to split off and become part of Russia, which the West says it will not recognize.
> 
> “We have to admit that our life now is almost like . . . a war,” Foreign Minister Andrii Deshchytsya said before meeting his counterparts from Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg. “We have to cope with an aggression that we do not understand.”
> 
> Deshchytsya said Ukraine is counting on help from the West. Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk is to meet with U.S. President Barack Obama in Washington on Wednesday.
> 
> On Monday, the Russian Foreign Ministry said lawlessness “now rules in eastern regions of Ukraine as a result of the actions of fighters of the so-called ‘Right Sector,’ with the full connivance” of Ukraine’s new authorities.
> 
> Right Sector is a grouping of several far-right and nationalist factions whose activists were among the most radical and confrontational of the three-month-long demonstrations in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, which eventually ousted President Viktor Yanukovych.
> 
> The Kremlin statement also claimed Russian citizens trying to enter Ukraine have been turned back at the border by Ukrainian officials.
> 
> Pro-Russia sentiment is high in Ukraine’s east and there are fears Russia could seek to incorporate that area as well.
> 
> Obama has warned that the referendum in Crimea would violate international law. But on Sunday, Russian President Vladimir Putin made it clear that he supports the vote, in phone calls with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Minister David Cameron.
> 
> “The steps taken by the legitimate leadership of Crimea are based on the norms of international law and aim to ensure the legal interests of the population of the peninsula,” said Putin, according to the Kremlin.
> 
> On Monday, Putin was briefed by Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, on the contents of a document Lavrov received from Secretary of State John Kerry explaining the U.S. view of the situation in Ukraine.
> 
> That document contains “a concept which does not quite agree with us because everything was stated in terms of allegedly having a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and in terms of accepting the fait accompli,” Lavrov said. The Kremlin contends Yanukovych was ousted by a coup.
> 
> In Washington, the State Department said it was still waiting to hear from Moscow whether it would accept a U.S. proposal for negotiating an end to Ukraine crisis.
> 
> A statement released Monday said Kerry, in weekend discussions with Lavrov, reiterated Washington’s demand that Moscow pull back its troops from Ukraine and end attempts to annex the Crimean peninsula. Kerry also called on Russia to cease what the statement described as “provocative steps” to allow diplomatic talks to continue.
> 
> Meanwhile, Obama spoke by telephone with Chinese President Xi Jinping late Sunday, trying to court China’s support for efforts to isolate Russia over its military intervention in Ukraine.
> 
> Obama appealed to Beijing’s vehement opposition to outside intervention in other nations’ domestic affairs, according to a White House statement.
> 
> China has been studiously neutral since Ukraine crisis began and it remained unclear whether China would side with the U.S. and Europe or with Moscow.
> 
> The UN Security Council, meanwhile, met on Ukraine for the fifth time in 10 days to hear closed-door briefings from UN political chief Jeffrey Feltman and Ukraine’s UN ambassador, Yuriy Sergeyev. The council has been unable to take any action because Russia has veto power.
> 
> France’s UN ambassador, Gerard Araud, said the goal was to “send a message to the Russians . . . ‘No referendum, you have to respect the Ukrainian constitution and negotiate.’”
> 
> Lara Jakes, Matthew Lee and Julie Pace in Washington, and Edith M. Lederer at the United Nations contributed to this report.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> Ukraine in near state of war, foreign minister says[/b]
> 
> http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2014/03/10/ukraine_in_near_state_of_war_foreign_minister_says.html


Meanwhile, the other side says it's close to war, alright, but a civil one - this, via Russian media, from the guy popping up from cover these days ....


> Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych has accused the new Ukrainian authorities of attempt to unleash civil war. He said this at his news conference in Russia's Rostov-on-Don.
> 
> He added that he remained the legitimate president of Ukraine and Supreme Commander-in-Chief. "I would like to remind that I remain the only legitimate president of Ukraine, as well as Supreme Commander-in-Chief. I didn't terminate my authority ahead of time, I'm alive, I wasn't dismissed from office according to a procedure stipulated by Ukraine's Constitution."
> 
> "The US and several other countries say that I allegedly lost legitimacy because I fled from the country," Yanukovych recalled. "I repeat: I have not fled anywhere. When the radicals were seizing governmental facilities and the presidential administration, when the anti-constitutional seizure of power took place with the use of arms, I was, as it is known, in Ukraine." ....


Meanwhile, a few hardware pix from an NYT reporter who's written a book about guns .....

"Russian Tigr-M mobile electronic warfare vehicle roaming western #Crimea today ...."






"Fuller view of weps carried by "self-defense forces"/#Crimea. Suppressed AKM-S, @ L, possible silenced 9mm VSS, @ R"





"Russian soldier (officially local self-defense patriot w/o state support) happens to have silenced AK ...."


----------



## George Wallace

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> picture they did show is not shopped i verified via google earth.



You do realize that Google Earth images are not "taken yesterday", but could be several years old, don't you?


----------



## CombatMacguyver

George Wallace said:
			
		

> You do realize that Google Earth images are not "taken yesterday", but could be several years old, don't you?



Agreed, that image is actually timestamped 2006.

There's another picture of the Tu-22M's at the link below.  No way to tell where the image really came from though; it's probably just another google earth pull from another Russian AFB

http://beforeitsnews.com/war-and-conflict/2014/03/30-russian-nuclear-bombers-amass-who-is-russia-preparing-to-bomb-2450908.html

edit:  typo


----------



## The Bread Guy

And the Crimean independence referendum page is up (http://referendum2014.ru/ (Russian) - Google English translation), counting down to 16 March, with some support from a referendum Twitter feed (in Russian).


----------



## Robert0288

I see the Crimean self defense force has a pretty large budget already to have a couple of these guys rolling around.






https://twitter.com/cjchivers/status/443178110213951488/photo/1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWFteWseDa8#t=64
http://www.armyrecognition.com/russia_russian_army_wheeled_armoured_vehicle_uk/tigr-m_mktk_re_pp_leer-2_vpk-233114_mobile_electronic_warfare_system_ew_vehicle_technical_data_sheet.html


----------



## Bird_Gunner45

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> I agree that Canada has less direct strategic interest in Crimea than does Russia.  Canada has less direct strategic interest anywhere than does anyone else on the planet.  (Part of  The Problem with the CAF).



why is this a problem for the CAF? The CAF is here to protect Canada not Ukraine.


----------



## MilEME09

Bird_Gunner45 said:
			
		

> why is this a problem for the CAF? The CAF is here to protect Canada not Ukraine.



implying we have the ability to even do that these days, and really its not about protecting Ukraine it self its more upholding the norm you dont invade a country and annex its territory and get away scot free


----------



## Bird_Gunner45

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> implying we have the ability to even do that these days, and really its not about protecting Ukraine it self its more upholding the norm you dont invade a country and annex its territory and get away scot free



Canada is not an international policeman and has no strategic interest in Ukraine.  We also dont know the facts, and at least from the outside the majority of people in Crimea are pro-Russian and want to be annexed. Will the referendum be completely honest? Not likely. 

Further, the US has invaded Iraq and Afghanistan, not to mention Grenada and Panama. Further, they have bombed targets in neutral nations such as Pakistan and, in the more distant past, Cambodia and Laos, unilaterally. France invaded Mali.  The US and France did these things because they were deemed to be in the national interest. Russia deems its strategic interests to be in the Crimea to, at least outwardly, defend Russians from a Ukrainian government they dont see as legitimate. Western moralism aside, why is Russia any less able to "invade" a country to secure it's national interests than a western nation? I doubt, if this were the US, anyone in Canada would be crying for a military intervention.

T


----------



## Hisoyaki

Bird_Gunner45 said:
			
		

> Western moralism aside, why is Russia any less able to "invade" a country to secure it's national interests than a western nation?
> 
> T



Because your country is part of the West and Russia is supporting amongst other things the regimes in Iran and Syria?

There`s quite a difference in motivation behind Western and Russian intervention.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, some of those Crimean Tatars are making interesting noises ....


> "Russia risks a repeat of its bloody entanglements in Chechnya if it annexes Crimea, a senior Crimean Tatar leader has warned, with extremist elements in the community threatening jihadi-style violence against Russian troops occupying the peninsula.
> 
> Mustafa Jemilev, a member of the Ukrainian parliament, said a number of militant Tatars had approached him to say they would fight the Russians.
> 
> “We have Islamists, Wahhabis, Salafis ... groups who have fought [with the opposition] in Syria,” he said in an interview in Simferopol, the Crimean capital. “They say: ‘an enemy has entered our land and we are ready’.
> 
> “We can’t stop people who want to die with honour,” he said, making he clear he did not endorse a jihadist campaign ...."



No worries, though - in spite of the sortid history of the Tatars in the area, the "Crimean parliament" and Russian media says they'll be juuuuuust fine ....


> A resolution passed by the Crimean parliament guarantees proportional representation in the republic’s legislative and executive bodies for the Crimean Tatar ethnic minority and grants their language official status, among other things.
> 
> The resolution provides for constitutional reform that would amend several key provisions of Crimea’s basic law. Under the amended constitution, the Crimean Tatar language would be granted official status, on a par with Russian and Ukrainian in Crimea.
> 
> It stipulates proportional representation in future parliaments and provides for at least 20 percent of seats in the republic’s executive for Crimean Tatars. They would have guaranteed representation in the lower levels of government as well.
> 
> The parliament also wants to recognize as official the self-governance bodies of the Crimean Tatars, starting with the Kurultai, a general assembly of the Tatars ....



Meanwhile, Russian paras are limbering up via (an alleged) CPX - involving a drop of 3,500 troops (Russian - Google English):


> Today began a four-day divisional command post exercise with a compound of the Airborne Troops (VDV), stationed in Ivanovo.
> 
> Divisions and units alerted and moved to areas of concentration. Staffs started working out the planning activities and organization of command and control during conditional counter-terrorist operation.
> 
> The exercise for the first time in more than a 20-year period will be held dropping about 3.5 thousand paratroopers. Venues amphibious operations command compound was obtained during the exercise.
> 
> Airborne Troops Commander Colonel General Vladimir Shamanov when setting targets for teaching have "units in the areas of concentration to be ready for operational use in different latitudes and conditions with equal efficiency. Commanders and staffs in the course of clarifying the tasks and giving instructions to use modern automated facilities management and communication. " ....


----------



## McG

I see several pictures in the media of new Crimean defence militias being sworn-in while wearing what appear to be old Russian uniforms.  It looks like the "not Russian" soldiers are recruiting, equipping and training the "self-defence force" that they claim to be.  I can see these new militias being pushed to the front whenever it is decided violence will occur, and the Russians will be able to say "see, not us" having effectively armed the civil war.

... or maybe I am reading too much between lines.


----------



## MilEME09

In Related news, CTV was reporting tonight on its national news that the current Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk will officially ask for Western Military intervention in the coming days. Poland at the same time is asking NATO, more so the United States for more troops to be brought in to beef up its own security


----------



## Robert0288

Sorry for double posting the EW thing earlier, should have caught that.  So I instead I present you with this.



> *Kiev will not use army to stop Crimea seceding, says Ukraine president*
> 12 March 2014 08.29 GMT
> Source: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/12/kiev-army-crimea-ukraine-acting-president
> 
> _Ukraine's acting president has said the country will not use its army to stop Crimea from seceding, in the latest indication that a Russian annexation of the peninsula may be imminent.
> The interim leader said intervening on the south-eastern Black Sea peninsula, where Kremlin-backed forces have seized control, would leave Ukraine exposed on its eastern border, where he said Russia has massed "significant tank units".
> "We cannot launch a military operation in Crimea, as we would expose the eastern border and Ukraine would not be protected," Oleksandr Turchynov told Agence France-Presse.
> "They're provoking us to have a pretext to intervene on the Ukrainian mainland … [but] we cannot follow the scenario written by the Kremlin."............_


----------



## FAL

I am wondering if the Ukraine gets bolstered by a sufficient commitment by the West militarily, will it prevent a war by dint of show of strength?

I also wonder how many "armed men" of "unknown origin" are holding the Ukrainian military in its bases.

I find it hard to imagine that Moscow would start shooting at NATO troops in the Ukraine. Especially if the Ukraine gov't had asked for their assistance. So many questions. Questions many have, I think.

But, the politicos have it as their job to deal with this stuff. But it makes me think of Hitler's orders to the German troops marching (not _marching_ per se, as that could bring the bridge down, but _walking_) over a bridge to enter the Rhineland pre-WWII. In _Rise and Fall of the Third Reich_ it's pointed out that when the Germans moved into the Rhineland, they had orders to fall back if they met any resistance.

Will we fail to provide ANY resistance again when just SOME resolve would be all that was needed? Again, just something I'm wondering about.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Robert0288 said:
			
		

> *Kiev will not use army to stop Crimea seceding, says Ukraine president*
> 12 March 2014 08.29 GMT
> Source: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/12/kiev-army-crimea-ukraine-acting-president



Meanwhile, Ukraine proposes forming militia/national guard ....


> Acting Ukrainian President and Verkhovna Rada Chairman Oleksandr Turchynov announced Tuesday that a national guard is being created to mobilize, along with the armed forces, "to protect the country and citizens."
> 
> Turchynov made the declaration during a parliamentary session on Tuesday in Kiev.
> 
> "It's necessary to create the National Guard on the basis of the Ukrainian Troops, whose purpose will be to protect the country and citizens against all criminals, external and internal aggression. It's necessary to announce partial mobilization into the National Guard and the Armed Forces of Ukraine." ....



Also, "the usual suspects" line up to share their "the West can ever do any good" takes:

rabble.ca  _"It's difficult to know which is the more disturbing aspect of the crisis in Ukraine. Is it the deliberate obfuscation of the truth by Western leaders like Stephen Harper (and their complicit media)? Or is it the truth itself -- the casual acceptance by the West of an illegal, coup-installed regime in Kyiv populated by neo-Nazis and anti-Semites?  You don't have to choose between them. You should be very concerned about both ...."_
globalresearch.ca  _“History is repeating itself. The US and its allies support fascists in Europe again. Just like when they supported the Nazis in Germany to target the Soviet Union, they are now supporting ultra-nationalist fascists in Ukraine with the aim of targeting Russia ….”_
_Workers World  “In recent days the U.S. imperialists and their junior EU partners have escalated the confrontation against Russia and the Ukrainian people diplomatically, militarily and economically.  Washington is using the upcoming referendum in Crimea and the strengthening of Russian military positions on the peninsula as a pretext to inflame the situation in Ukraine and stoke the fires of confrontation ...."_


----------



## Edward Campbell

FAL said:
			
		

> I am wondering if the Ukraine gets bolstered by a sufficient commitment by the West militarily, will it prevent a war by dint of show of strength?
> 
> I also wonder how many "armed men" of "unknown origin" are holding the Ukrainian military in its bases.
> 
> I find it hard to imagine that Moscow would start shooting at NATO troops in the Ukraine. Especially if the Ukraine gov't had asked for their assistance. So many questions. Questions many have, I think.
> 
> But, the politicos have it as their job to deal with this stuff. But it makes me think of Hitler's orders to the German troops marching (not _marching_ per se, as that could bring the bridge down, but _walking_) over a bridge to enter the Rhineland pre-WWII. In _Rise and Fall of the Third Reich_ it's pointed out that when the Germans moved into the Rhineland, they had orders to fall back if they met any resistance.
> 
> Will we fail to provide ANY resistance again when just SOME resolve would be all that was needed? Again, just something I'm wondering about.




"West," etc are loaded terms.

I do not endorse this map but it illustrates the a problem: who is who?







It is often said that we need to see 'Europe' as a fairly small peninsula (plus a few islands) jutting out into the Atlantic from the Eurasian landmass.






Some political scientists define an "Atlantic Europe" subset consisting of only those nations that have Atlantic (and Baltic) coastlines ~ not Italy, not Greece, not, certainly any of the Balkan, Slavic or 'Near East' states. I'm not advocating that view but nor do I agree that 'Western Europe' includes e.g. Ukraine.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Next:  a G7 (via the EU) nasty-gram ....


> We, the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States, the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission, call on the Russian Federation to cease all efforts to change the status of Crimea contrary to Ukrainian law and in violation of international law. We call on the Russian Federation ...to immediately halt actions supporting a referendum on the territory of Crimea regarding its status, in direct violation of the Constitution of Ukraine.
> 
> Any such referendum would have no legal effect. Given the lack of adequate preparation and the intimidating presence of Russian troops, it would also be a deeply flawed process which would have no moral force. For all these reasons, we would not recognize the outcome.
> 
> Russian annexation of Crimea would be a clear violation of the United Nations Charter; Russia’s commitments under the Helsinki Final Act; its obligations to Ukraine under its 1997 Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership; the Russia-Ukraine 1997 basing agreement; and its commitments in the Budapest Memorandum of 1994. In addition to its impact on the unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, the annexation of Crimea could have grave implications for the legal order that protects the unity and sovereignty of all states. Should the Russian Federation take such a step, we will take further action, individually and collectively.
> 
> We call on the Russian Federation to de-escalate the conflict in Crimea and other parts of Ukraine immediately, withdraw its forces back to their pre-crisis numbers and garrisons, begin direct discussions with the Government of Ukraine, and avail itself of international mediation and observation offers to address any legitimate concerns it may have. We, the leaders of the G-7, urge Russia to join us in working together through diplomatic processes to resolve the current crisis and support progress for a sovereign independent, inclusive and united Ukraine. We also remind the Russian Federation of our decision to suspend participation in any activities related to preparation of a G-8 Sochi meeting until it changes course and the environment comes back to where the G-8 is able to have a meaningful discussion.


----------



## Journeyman

:   More repeated responses for those who post, but don't/can't read:



			
				MilEME09 said:
			
		

> In Related news, CTV was reporting tonight on its national news that the current Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk will officially ask for Western Military intervention in the coming days.


The only three countries that are obligated, by treaty, to intervene are Britain, Russia (awkward), and the US.



			
				MilEME09 said:
			
		

> Poland at the same time is asking NATO, more so the United States for more troops to be brought in to beef up its own security


Poland can ask, under NATO's Article 4, for consultations only.  In the absence of a single Russian soldier crossing the Polish border, Article 5's "common defence" clause is irrelevant.



			
				FAL said:
			
		

> I am wondering if the Ukraine gets bolstered by a sufficient commitment by the West militarily, will it prevent a war by dint of show of strength?


We have no strategic interest that would cause us to "bolster" them militarily. Sending in troops with any mission other than to close with and destroy is foolish and will most likely lead to a general war.  

Are you personally planning on being there as #2 rifleman?  Didn't think so; but then, strategic glibness is easier that way.





			
				milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Next:  a G7 (via the EU) nasty-gram ....


Finally, the west has 'acted.'  That should turn things around.
     op:


----------



## Kirkhill

......Ah Skip it. 

I was going to chase round the mulberry bush one more time but there isn't any point.

Cheers lads.

Back to your popcorn.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Journeyman said:
			
		

> Finally, the west has 'acted.'  That should turn things around.
> op:


More like  :crickets:


----------



## McG

Journeyman said:
			
		

> The only three countries that are obligated, by treaty, to intervene are Britain, Russia (awkward), and the US.


What treaty (treaties) oblige UK and US?


----------



## vonGarvin

The Budapest Memorandum may be the document in question:


From here:



> It is not a formal treaty, but rather, a diplomatic document under which signatories made promises to each other as part of the denuclearization of former Soviet republics after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
> 
> Under the memorandum, Ukraine promised to remove all Soviet-era nuclear weapons from its territory, send them to disarmament facilities in Russia, and sign the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Ukraine kept these promises.
> 
> In return, Russia and the Western signatory countries essentially consecrated the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine as an independent state. They did so by applying the principles of territorial integrity and nonintervention in 1975 Helsinki Final Act -- a Cold War-era treaty signed by 35 states including the Soviet Union -- to an independent post-Soviet Ukraine.


----------



## Infantryman2b

Lets hope Ukraine isn't the next Sarajevo. Funny how its exactly 100 years ago. Let Russia take the Crimea, the people are pro-Russian. America thinks there the only country with the right to intervene in other countries.


----------



## observor 69

Very informative discussion on "What’s Russia’s ambition in Eastern Europe?"
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/whats-russias-ambition-in-eastern-europe/

The former USSR liked having countries  buffering it from NATO and I can't see Putin giving up on losing influence over Ukraine.


----------



## Journeyman

MCG said:
			
		

> What treaty (treaties) oblige UK and US?
> 
> 
> 
> The Budapest Memorandum
Click to expand...

Although "treaty" may not be the correct term. 

In exchange for Ukraine joining the Non-Proliferation Treaty and shipping its nuclear arsenal to Russia, the signatories provided several security guarantees, _viz_.:
1. Respect Ukrainian independence and sovereignty within its existing borders.
2. Refrain from the threat or use of force against Ukraine.
3. Refrain from using economic pressure on Ukraine in order to influence its politics.
4. Seek United Nations Security Council action if nuclear weapons are used against Ukraine.
5. Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against Ukraine.

For those who are adamant that we bring our massive combat power to bear, *Canada is NOT a signatory*  -- nor is any NATO country except US/UK  


(Not you MCG; you merely asked a question)


----------



## Kirkhill

It is not that we have any massive combat power to contribute....(separate debate).

It is the fact that nobody is willing to contribute - separately or jointly.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> It is not that we have any massive combat power to contribute....(separate debate).
> 
> It is the fact that nobody is willing to contribute - separately or jointly.




And the (good) reason that nobody, except Russia, is willing to 'contribute' any military power is that nobody, except Russia, has a *vital strategic interest* in the region.


----------



## The Bread Guy

More AFV recognition pRon ....

Some (unconfirmed) reports of Russian vehicles (lookin' like BMDs?) on the move around Belgorod near the Russian border (YouTube video here) ....








.... remembering the Russian airborne forces' "command post" exercise under way (Russian - Google English) some ways away in/around Ivanovo.  Linked?  Maybe, maybe not ....


----------



## vonGarvin

Any casual student of WW2 History will recognise Belgorod as being near Kursk, sight of a massive battle in 1943.


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> More AFV recognition pRon ....
> 
> Some (unconfirmed) reports of Russian vehicles (lookin' like BMDs?) on the move around Belgorod near the Russian border (YouTube video here) ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> .... remembering the Russian airborne forces' "command post" exercise under way (Russian - Google English) some ways away in/around Ivanovo.  Linked?  Maybe, maybe not ....



Russia's defence minister:  nothing to see here, folks - this, in Google English - highlights mine:


> The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation drew attention to the statement by Mr. I. Tenyukh on March 11, in which he noted that "the Russian Armed Forces conduct exercises near the eastern borders of Ukraine and Crimea." According to him, allegedly established group of Russian troops numbering 220 thousand, 1.8 thousand tanks, more than 400 helicopters.
> 
> In this connection we would like to note the following. Today is unlikely to continue to escalate the situation in Russian-Ukrainian relations. Looks like Mr. Tenyukh exactly this does. Solved with the goals and objectives outlined himself he openly calling parliamentary deputies to urgently provide the armed forces of Ukraine "with the necessary resources and means."
> 
> *We think that as a professional soldier, Mr. Tenyukh well aware that in the Western and Central Military Districts on March 3 completed the active phase of a sudden inspection of troops (forces) and March 7 all military units returned to their places of permanent deployment.*
> 
> Obviously, and figures describing "the Russian military forces" on the borders of Ukraine, they also announced to "impress" nervous some parliamentarians and "broad international community."
> 
> At the same time Ukrainian Defense Ministry is well known that the Russian Southern and Western military districts together account for not named Mr. Tenyukh number of tanks and helicopter gunships. A number of personnel, "stationed in the border zone with Ukraine," in all probability, calculated based on military families.
> 
> By the way, March 11 Ukrainian side approached us with a request to hold a so-called emergency observation flight over the territory of the Russian Federation.
> 
> Such a mission is requested for the first time in the framework of the Open Skies Treaty since its signing in 1992 and although we have no obligation to receive Ukrainian aircraft no, we took the decision to allow the observation group to carry out such a mission.
> 
> *We hope that our neighbors will be convinced that there is no military activities that threaten the security of Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces on its boundary are not.
> 
> At the same time would like to note that attempting to conduct large-scale exercises themselves Ukrainian armed forces on the eastern and southern Ukraine, near the areas in which are mass protests against the coup, very risky, could lead to further reinforced the political situation in Ukraine.*


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Russia's defence minister:  nothing to see here, folks - this, in Google English - highlights mine:


Meanwhile, more details from Russian media (also attached if link doesn't work):


> In accordance with the combat training plan, military units and detachments of the Russian army are building up the intensity of field exercise at ranges in Rostov, Belgorod, Kursk and Tambov Regions. The Defense Ministry’s press service said this on Thursday. The main goal of the exercise is to comprehensively check the units’ cohesiveness with further fulfillment of combat training mission on unfamiliar territory and untested ranges.
> 
> The field ingresses are carried out in two stages. During the first stage, “commanders and contingent of infantry, artillery and tank detachments gained experience during route marches from permanent dispositions in a combined method: afoot, by train and by air transport to final march objectives with further deployment afield. They followed up issues of cooperation with representatives of Russian Railways (RZD) and of uploading equipment on flat wagons”.
> 
> This stage of exercise also features a “set of practical trainings, when servicemen within their units have worked the standards of driving military and special equipment on unfamiliar territory, route reconnaissance, engineer reconnaissance, fortification of positions and special tactical training. In the planned activities, special focus is placed on stealth of movement and camouflage security in staging areas.”
> 
> At present, the units’ commanders “are training the methods of staging different types of combat, detachment control and control of fire when fulfilling the combat training missions, learning to act unconventionally, fooling the enemy and achieving unexpectedness. During the training, a complex, combat type tactical environment with imitation of actions of the imaginary enemy is created.”
> 
> On the last stage of the combat training, the servicemen “at the ranges will master a set of practical exercises aimed at combat cohesiveness of units, with firearms training and battle firing, and the commanders will also check their ability to control artillery fire”.
> 
> The field training will continue until late March.


Note the caption on this photo ....




*"Ukraine army placed in maximum operational readiness"*
Never knew Russia had a "Ukraine army" ....

Meanwhile, included in the latest U.S. package to help Ukraine ....


> (....)
> 
> *Immediate Assistance*
> 
> (....) Department of Defense (DoD) personnel will organize a Humanitarian Assistance Planning Conference with the Ukrainian Armed Forces. *DoD will provide Meals Ready to Eat (MREs) to the Ukrainian Armed Forces* ....


Apart from the humanitarian implications of sharing MRE's with the Ukrainians, this Twitter weisenheimer seems to have summed it up well:


> We are sending MREs to Ukraine to stave off a Soviet invasion. I hope not the pizza or 4 fingers of death.


----------



## CombatMacguyver

Send them the "Omelette in Mushroom Sauce" IMP.  That'll stop the war right there.


----------



## OldSolduer

CombatMacguyver said:
			
		

> Send them the "Omelette in Mushroom Sauce" IMP.  That'll stop the war right there.



Ham n Egg omelette aka Lung in a Bag.


----------



## MilEME09

Jim Seggie said:
			
		

> Ham n Egg omelette aka Lung in a Bag.



Maybe they can call for peace by trading enough Tabasco?


----------



## CougarKing

Another exercise or a Georgia-style campaign in the making?

National Post



> *Prepare for war ‘at any moment,’ Ukrainian president warns after Putin sends 8,500 soldiers, 270 tanks to border*
> 
> Ukraine must be ready for a full-scale Russian invasion “at any moment,” the country’s acting president warned Thursday, as officials announced the emergency call-up of a 60,000-strong national guard force.
> 
> Oleksander Turchynov said Moscow was “ready” to go much further than the annexation of the Black Sea territory of Crimea, which is expected to vote to secede from Ukraine in a referendum on Sunday.
> 
> Only clear international pressure could halt slow the momentum of the Kremlin, he said. “All of civilized humanity supports our country,” said Mr. Turchynov. “I am sure that this united effort in the international arena, bringing together all democratic countries, can still allow us to halt this aggression.”
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## Edward Campbell

This is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the _Financial Times_:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ccca2080-ab6e-11e3-8cae-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=intl


> Russia sounds alarm over eastern Ukraine
> 
> By Neil Buckley in London, Roman Olearchyk in Kiev and Andrew Byrne in Brussels
> 
> March 14, 2014
> 
> Russia warned on Friday it was prepared to intervene in eastern Ukraine after clashes in which at least one person died, as US secretary of state John Kerry and Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov began crisis talks in London.
> 
> The talks and Moscow’s warning came as Russia continued to intensify a military build-up around Ukraine’s eastern borders. Russia’s defence ministry said on Thursday it was conducting training exercises involving thousands of troops in western Russian regions close to Ukraine.
> 
> They also came as Ukraine’s Black Sea peninsula of Crimea prepares to hold a referendum on Sunday on whether to reunite with Russia, which the EU and the US have described as illegal.
> In a strongly worded statement, Russia’s foreign ministry said clashes late on Thursday between pro-Russian and pro-Kiev demonstrators in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk showed the “leadership in Kiev does not control the situation in the country”.
> 
> At least one pro-Kiev demonstrator was stabbed to death, with dozens of other people injured.
> 
> “Russia is conscious of its responsibility for the lives of compatriots and citizens in Ukraine and reserves the right to take these people under its protection,” it added.
> 
> Moscow accused “rightwing radicals” of sparking the violence in Donetsk – a claim contradicted by several witness and internet video accounts. One local witness suggested the violence had been orchestrated by
> “Russian tourists” bussed in to Donetsk from Russia.
> 
> Donetsk-based Rinat Akhmetov, the richest of Ukraine’s billionaire oligarchs, on Friday called for calm.
> 
> “No politics can justify victims, and what happened is unacceptable,” he said. “We must act unemotionally, We must be prudent and tolerant to each other. We must respect different views. We should stop sorting out relationships in the streets and squares as it can take lives and bring suffering.”
> 
> Moscow used a similar pretext of the need to protect Russian citizens in Crimea for handing president Vladimir Putin authority on March 1 to deploy the Russian military in Ukraine.
> 
> Russia says it has not yet done so – though senior western military officials say they have identified well-armed soldiers who have taken control of Crimea as Russian soldiers.
> 
> In London, Mr Kerry was set to call on Russia’s Mr Lavrov to halt Sunday’s planned referendum and return Russian troops to their bases. The US and EU are preparing to impose sanctions on Russia on Monday if the referendum goes ahead.
> 
> Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany on Thursday warned Russia could face “massive” political and economic harm if it continued with its current policies in Ukraine.
> 
> Meeting Mr Kerry in Downing Street ahead of his talks with Mr Lavrov, Britain’s prime minister David Cameron said “we want to see progress as much as you do”.
> 
> “We want to see Ukrainians and the Russians talking to each other. And if they don’t then there are going to have to be consequences,” Mr Cameron said.
> 
> Mr Kerry responded: “We’re all hoping that we don’t get pushed into a place where we have to do all this. But we’ll see what happens.”
> 
> Analysts say the Crimean referendum seems certain to go ahead. But the US secretary of state told a Senate panel on Thursday he would urge Russia to accept “something short of a full annexation” of the peninsula.
> 
> In Brussels, EU diplomats on Friday began what were expected to be all-day negotiations over the list of Crimean and Russian officials that EU foreign ministers could target for visa bans and asset freezes when they meet in Brussels on Monday.
> 
> Diplomats said divisions remained over whether to focus solely on officials on the ground in Crimea or to include Russian officials in Moscow.
> 
> “What you are talking about is a Russian list but I am talking about a list of individuals who are infringing the sovereignty of Ukraine,” said one senior EU official.



At a _guess_, nothing more, the Russian/Putin _appreciation of this situation_ is that the US led West is unable/unwilling to counter Russia's aggression and it can continue for bit more.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Worthwhile read from PBS on how the info-war is unfolding - some excerpts:


> (....)
> 
> Ten days ago, Russia’s Channel 1 reported that 140,000 refugees were forced to flee to Russia. They illustrated the story with footage of cars crossing out of Ukraine — but they showed old images of cars crossing into Poland from Ukraine’s western borders. The story has been repeated across Russian media, but no one has produced images of the hordes of refugees.
> 
> (....)
> 
> I visited a Ukrainian military base in the Crimean town of Bakhchysarai, where commandoes with machine guns patrolled, supplemented by locals who had formed their own paramilitary groups. Across the road, hundreds of women and children from the ethnic Tatar minority were chanting “Crimea is Ukraine”, asking the Russian soldiers to go home and allow the Ukrainian soldiers inside the base to go free.
> 
> Realizing the terrible PR impact of armed men in balaclavas facing off with women and children, pro-Russian volunteers got on their walkie-talkies. Within half an hour, a bus full of pro-Russian women arrived to counter the Tatar demonstration. One of these women told me, “There’s a lot of misinformation and a lot of lies being written. We have peace, thanks to the Russians who are protecting us against this fascism. In Ukraine, there is turmoil. We want peace, just like them. It’s a good thing that there IS a Russia. That is our defense, and they are protecting us and maintaining our order and protection against terrorists and radicals in Crimea. We are glad that we are being protected by the Russian soldiers.”
> 
> A particularly ebullient man with an enormous Russian flag told me, “Those people across the street, the protesters, they’re simply provocateurs who came here proclaiming glory to Ukraine…. to us, their chants are no better than them saying ‘Heil Hitler.’”
> 
> (....)



Meanwhile, a bit on the "damned if you do, damned if you don't" referendum ballot....


> Sunday's vote in Ukraine's Crimea is being officially billed as a chance for the peninsula's peoples to decide fairly and freely their future - but in fact there is no room on the ballot paper for voting "Nyet" to control by Russia.
> 
> The Crimean voter will have the right to choose only one of two options in the March 16 referendum which the region's pro-Russian leadership, protected by Russian forces, announced earlier this month.
> 
> According to a format of the ballot paper, published on the parliament's website, the first question will ask: "Are you in favour of the reunification of Crimea with Russia as a part of the Russian Federation?"
> 
> The second asks: "Are you in favour of restoring the 1992 Constitution and the status of Crimea as a part of Ukraine?"
> 
> At first glance, the second option seems to offer the prospects of the peninsula remaining within Ukraine .... This foresees giving Crimea all the qualities of an independent entity within Ukraine - but with the broad right to determine its own path and choose relations with whom it wants - including Russia ....


How do you say "sovereignty association" in Russian?


----------



## The Bread Guy

PM to drop by next weekend while in the neighbourhood ....


> Prime Minister Stephen Harper today announced that he will travel to Ukraine to meet with the interim Government of Ukraine to discuss the evolving situation there and how Canada can, along with its allies, continue to provide support. The Prime Minister will be in Kyiv on March 22 to meet with Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk. Prime Minister Harper is the first G-7 leader to announce plans to travel to Ukraine since the beginning of this crisis ....


----------



## Robert0288

> *At Least 2 Dead as Eastern Ukrainian City Explodes in Violence*
> Source: http://mashable.com/2014/03/14/ukraine-donetsk-two-dead/
> 
> _KIEV, Ukraine — At least two pro-Ukraine protesters participating in an anti-war demonstration were killed and more than a dozen others injured late on Thursday after their group was violently attacked by men from an opposing pro-Russia demonstration in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk.
> 
> The pro-Ukraine participants had been waving blue and yellow Ukrainian flags as part of a "For a United Ukraine" rally on Donetsk's Lenin Square when pro-Russian activists began heaving firecrackers, eggs and stun grenades at them, chanting, “Russ-i-a!” and “On your knees!”, according to eyewitnesses and journalists from local news site Novosti Donbassa who spoke with Mashable.
> ..........
> The entire world has seen footage of this terrible massacre. The utmost cynicism of all this is that the blood of Ukrainian citizens who attended a rally in support of our country's unity was spilled in their own home city," Turchynov said in a statement published on his official website. "This is the true face of the Cossack separatists who were sent there and who triggered the violence. The lives of the people that they supposedly gathered to defend are not important to them and their masters in the Kremlin. Every Ukrainian must realize that."
> ........._


----------



## Kirkhill

Oh jeez.....

We're killing Ukrainians too quickly.  We must intervene to stop ourselves.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> Oh jeez.....
> 
> We're killing Ukrainians too quickly.  We must intervene to stop ourselves.


Stop being so rabble.ca!  >


----------



## KerryBlue

This one is in Ukrainian but if your using Chrome it translates pretty decently into English. (Although Chrome says its Russian  :facepalm: ) 

http://www.theinsider.ua/politics/5322d8f4664cf/



> *Three peace terms from Putin*





> and three days before the referendum in the Crimea mood in Parliament pessimistic. Deputies are waiting for the results of a trip premiere Arseniy Yatsenyuk in the U.S. and information, whether Ukraine will receive military aid from one of the guarantors of its independence.
> .........
> 
> It seems that Russia is ready to make concessions and abandon military intervention. But their price may be the translation of presidential elections, the failure to sign agreements with the EU and NATO.



Kremlin's 3 conditions to ending occupation of Ukraine:

1) Ukraine cannot join NATO.
2) Ukraine cannot sign EU Association Agreement.
3) Postpone elections in Ukraine.

Basically Putin isn't even trying to hide the fact that he is meddling in the foreign affairs of Ukraine. Wonder where we go from here. 



Edited to add: 


If anyone else is interested Vice News has been doing a bunch of short news dispatches dealing with the Ukraine Russia issue. Link below

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNKsLlK52ss&list=PLw613M86o5o5zqF6WJR8zuC7Uwyv76h7R


----------



## CougarKing

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> It is the fact that nobody is willing to contribute - separately or jointly.



At least one US official wants to use some assets to discourage any further Russian aggression:

I wonder if we will soon see American F22s exercising with Polish F16s and Ukrainian Su27s to discourage a Russian invasion?

Defense News



> *Inhofe: Putting F-22s, Aegis Ships Near Ukraine Would Not Escalate Conflict*
> Mar. 14, 2014 - 12:23PM   |   By JOHN T. BENNETT
> 
> WASHINGTON — A senior Republican senator says his call to surround Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine-occupying forces with America’s most-advanced weapons would not amount to an escalation that could trigger a major conflict.
> 
> Western presidents and chancellors, as well as senior secretaries and ministers, are focused on using economic and diplomatic maneuvers to force the Russian president to remove his forces from Ukraine’s Crimea region. No Western leader is talking about using military force to push Putin’s forces from the region.
> 
> (...EDITED)



Meanwhile, pro-Russian forces claimed to have shot a US drone over Crimea:

Agence-France-Presse



> *Russia says intercepted US drone over Crimea: arms group*
> 
> Moscow (AFP) - A United States surveillance drone has been intercepted above the Ukranian region of Crimea, a Russian state arms and technology group said Friday.
> 
> "The drone was flying at about 4,000 metres (12,000 feet) and was virtually invisible from the ground. It was possible to break the link with US operators with complex radio-electronic" technology, said Rostec in a statement.
> 
> The drone fell "almost intact into the hands of self-defence forces" added Rostec, which said it had manufactured the equipment used to down the aircraft, but did not specify who was operating it.
> 
> *"Judging by its identification number, UAV MQ-5B belonged to the 66th American Reconnaissance Brigade, based in Bavaria,"* Rostec said on its website, which also carried a picture of what it said was the captured drone.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## vonGarvin

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> How do you say "sovereignty association" in Russian?



Суверенитет ассоциации


----------



## cupper

Haven't seen any other reports on this, could be Russian Poo Poo Ganda.

*Russia says intercepted US drone over Crimea: arms group*

http://news.yahoo.com/russia-says-intercepted-us-drone-over-crimea-arms-180430584.html



> Moscow (AFP) - A United States surveillance drone has been intercepted above the Ukranian region of Crimea, a Russian state arms and technology group said Friday.
> 
> "The drone was flying at about 4,000 metres (12,000 feet) and was virtually invisible from the ground. It was possible to break the link with US operators with complex radio-electronic" technology, said Rostec in a statement.
> 
> The drone fell "almost intact into the hands of self-defence forces" added Rostec, which said it had manufactured the equipment used to down the aircraft, but did not specify who was operating it.
> 
> "Judging by its identification number, UAV MQ-5B belonged to the 66th American Reconnaissance Brigade, based in Bavaria," Rostec said on its website, which also carried a picture of what it said was the captured drone.
> 
> The photograph appeared to show an apparently armed drone in flight, rather than debris.
> 
> The Crimean port of Sevastopol is home to Russia's Black Sea Fleet, which is believed to be equipped with detection equipment.
> 
> Crimea, where pro-Kremlin forces have control, is to hold a referendum on Sunday on the peninsula joining Russia, in what Moscow says is a fair expression of self identity but the West views as an illegal annexation of sovereign territory.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

> The Crimean port of Sevastopol is home to Russia's Black Sea Fleet, which is believed to be equipped with detection equipment.



OOOOOoooooohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.  I've heard of this "RAY-DAHR" gadget that is rumoured to be on so ships and planes.

Guess the rumours are true!!!!

Maybe it's just me, but that has the same WOW! factor as saying "it is believed hockey players have sticks".


----------



## cupper

Could be time to send in Moose and Squirrel. ;D


----------



## KerryBlue

I apologize for posting a video which is in Ukrainian, even then its the Russian/Ukrainian mix so it's hard for to understand everything but I've gotten the gist of what is being said. (The title helps  ;D )

Russian troopers told about what is gonna happen in Crimea after referendum

http://ukrstream.tv/videos/rosiis_ki_viis_kovi_rozpovili_shcho_budie_z_krimom_pislia_riefieriendumu_russian_troopers_told_about_what_is_gonna_happen_in_crimea_after_referendum

The undercover journalist speaks with Russian troops, who claim there will be a push to take Kharkiv, in addition to storming Ukrainian military bases in Crimea on the 17th of March. The 17th being the day after the referendum in Crimea is to happen. To add to that their are reports that 2.5 millions ballots have been printed for this referendum, but their are only 1.5 register voters so there is talk that we might see some Soviet style mathematics. That said, we can probably assume that the referendum will be a yes and that the Russian military might cut the country in half so to speak by using the E105 highway to go north up to Kharkiv. Which they could justify as the region to the west of the E105 is one that is predominately Pro-Russian.


----------



## a_majoor

Fracking and other technologies will help out in the end, but here are some of the issues that the Europeans need to fix first:

http://www.the-american-interest.com/blog/2014/03/09/uk-shale-struggles-a-reminder-of-why-america-succeeded/



> *UK Shale Struggles a Reminder of Why America Succeeded*
> 
> The mood is downright gloomy at the Shale UK conference this week, where various stakeholders in the country’s fledgling industry are bemoaning a lack of progress in tapping the countries estimated 1.3 quadrillion cubic feet of natural gas trapped in shale. Despite having some of the thicker—and therefore easier to drill—shale in Europe, faulted stratigraphy, stunted support infrastructure, and a byzantine regulatory environment are preventing Britain from imitating America’s shale success. The FT reports:
> 
> Exploration is expensive and it is easy to spend more on drilling a well than the value of gas that comes out of the ground. Drilling costs are significantly higher in the UK than the US. The nascent supply chain and long licensing process are largely to blame.
> 
> “It’s a lot slower than in the US,” says Francis Egan, Cuadrilla chief executive. “We have to apply for eight or nine permits for each exploration well.”
> 
> Geology is another factor. While UK shale gas reserves appear to be thicker than those in the US, the UK’s geological make-up is likely to prove more challenging. “The UK is highly faulted by comparison to a typical North American shale area like Marcellus or Eagle Ford,” says Joe Cartwright, Shell Professor of Earth Sciences at Oxford university. “Our areas are intrinsically more complex.”
> 
> America remains the sole state to capitalize on its shale oil and gas resources, and difficulties in countries like the UK and China remind us that the shale revolution was more than just the result of applying the dual techniques of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal well drilling to underground hydrocarbon reservoirs. Rather, the US energy revolution was the product of a mature oil and gas drilling industry, replete with robust supply chains. The boom depended on a unique set of mineral rights that provided landowners with a financial incentive to invite drillers on to their land, on a deep pool of capital, and on a variety of small wildcatting firms willing to take on the risk of drilling exploratory wells. And it couldn’t have happened without a bit of natural providence: US shale is neatly layered, like a “wedding cake,” making it easier to drill the requisite horizontal wells, and drillers weren’t hampered by water scarcity the way their Chinese counterparts have been.
> 
> This isn’t to say that shale can’t be tapped elsewhere, just that it’s going to be a more difficult process than many world leaders not named Obama might like. But the race to produce even a pale imitation of America’s experience is more important to European energy security now than ever, given the situation in Ukraine. Europe sources nearly a third of its natural gas from Russia, and that’s a lever Brussels is keen to rid itself of as it maneuvers against Moscow. Lawmakers in Washington have made the case that American LNG could help on that front, but so too could the continent’s significant domestic supply of shale gas. The Crimean crisis may be the strongest incentive yet for Europe to frack.


----------



## The Bread Guy

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> I wonder if we will soon see American F22s exercising with Polish F16s and Ukrainian Su27s to discourage a Russian invasion?


In related news, _"Russia Sends 6 Fighter Jets to Belarus"_


> Six Russian Su-27 fighter jets and three military transport planes with ground support personnel arrived Thursday at an airbase in Belarus to boost the airspace defenses of the two countries' Union State, the Russian Defense Ministry said.
> 
> The ministry said the aircraft from the Western military district have been deployed to the Babruysk airbase in line with a bilateral agreement on the joint protection of the Union State's airspace.
> 
> The planes will reinforce the four Russian Su-27 Flanker fighter jets already at the nearby Baranovichi airbase.
> 
> The Su-27 Flanker is a highly-maneuverable, all-weather fighter jet that could be used in a variety of combat missions, including reconnaissance and the interception of enemy aircraft.
> 
> Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko had said earlier that Belarus would ask Russia to deploy up to 15 combat aircraft on its territory in response to increased NATO military activity along the country’s borders ....





			
				S.M.A. said:
			
		

> Meanwhile, pro-Russian forces claimed to have shot a US drone over Crimea:
> 
> Agence-France-Presse


A bit of the REST of the story on that.  The original news release on the Russian arms company's web page is no longer there (you can see it in Russian in the Google cache here, on Dropbox.com here or in Google Translate here).

If you go to the company's web page where the original news release used to be (Russian – Google English), you get a statement sounding more like "hey, we didn't see the UAV go down - we attributed it to "Military Observer" magazine, so they're responsible for how true the information is, really."


----------



## CougarKing

Aren't larger warships above a certain tonnage, such as aircraft carriers, technically not allowed into the Black Sea because of the Montreux Convention?

If I can recall correctly, the 1936 Montreux Convention, which governs the passage of ships through the Bosporus Straits and Dardanelles, restricts the tonnage, number, and types of ships that non-Black Sea nations can pass through the straits, and the number of days they may remain in the Black Sea.  It also requires that Turkish authorities be notified in advance before ships can pass through the straits.




> *Eye on Ukraine, Carrier Stays in the Med*
> 
> The Virginian-Pilot | Mar 15, 2014 | by Mike Hixenbaugh
> 
> 
> *The aircraft carrier George H.W. Bush will remain in the Mediterranean Sea longer than planned as part of an effort to reassure U.S. allies worried about the crisis in Ukraine.*
> 
> The Norfolk-based carrier and its strike group will delay its trip to the Persian Gulf for "few more days" said Col. Steve Warren, a Pentagon spokesman.
> 
> The Pentagon is not saying when the Bush will continue with its original mission, but Warren said the departure would likely happen within the next several days.
> 
> 
> *One ship in the Bush strike group, the guided missile destroyer Truxtun, broke away last week and steamed to the Black Sea, where defense officials say it has been participating in a previously planned training mission, unrelated to the turmoil in Ukraine.*
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## KerryBlue

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-crisis-military-repels-russia-incursion-into-area-next-to-crimea-1.2574094


> *Ukraine crisis: military repels Russia incursion into area next to Crimea*
> 
> Ukraine's military scrambled aircraft and paratroops on Saturday to repel an attempt by Russian forces to enter a long spit of land belonging to a region adjacent to Crimea, Ukraine's defence ministry said.
> 
> "Units of Ukraine's armed forces today ... repelled an attempt by servicemen of the armed forces of the Russian Federation to enter the territory of Kherson region on Arbatskaya Strelka," a ministry statement said. "This was repelled immediately."
> 
> It said the Ukrainian military used aircraft, ground forces and its aeromobile battalion in the operation. The territory in question is a long spit of land running parallel to the east of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula, now controlled by Russian forces.



The area in question is part of the Kherson Oblast and is close to 5 hours north of the Sevastopol, and separated from the Crimean peninsula by the Dnieper river, what Russians are doing in undoubtedly sovereign Ukrainian territory is beyond comprehension at this point.


----------



## Journeyman

I think what's inflaming most of the tensions is the use of  

*really big, bold fonts*   anic:


----------



## Kirkhill

I think they feel they have to speak up to be heard over the noise of popcorn munching.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> I think they feel they have to speak up to be heard over the noise of popcorn munching.



Why is the mainstream media still referring to Russian Armed Forces soldiers as paramilitary when they are clearly members of the Armed Forces of Russia?


----------



## The Bread Guy

RoyalDrew said:
			
		

> Why is the mainstream media still referring to Russian Armed Forces soldiers as paramilitary when they are clearly members of the Armed Forces of Russia?


Has any reporter checked their ID?  

Can't be all bad if the Ukrainian navy has enough free troops to form national symbols (while in riot gear) for their Info-machine:






Meanwhile, how about a bit of crowdsource funding for the Ukrainian military?


> Action on logistic and medical support for Ukrainian Armed Forces. Just call ‘565’ from mobile phone and transfer UAH 5 for needs of the Ukrainian Army.
> 
> If you want to transfer other amounts there have been opened accounts:
> 
> Beneficiary: Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
> 
> Code of Single Register of Enterprises and Companies of Ukraine: 00034022
> 
> Bank: State Treasury Service of Ukraine, Kyiv
> 
> Sort Code MFO: 820172
> 
> Registration accounts:
> 
> 31254307218611 – logistic support
> 
> 31257304218611 – medical support


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Has any reporter checked their ID?



I'm sure most "paramilitary" groups don't get their hands on what looks to be an HK417


----------



## The Bread Guy

KerryBlue said:
			
		

> http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-crisis-military-repels-russia-incursion-into-area-next-to-crimea-1.2574094
> 
> The area in question is part of the Kherson Oblast and is close to 5 hours north of the Sevastopol, and separated from the Crimean peninsula by the Dnieper river, what Russians are doing in undoubtedly sovereign Ukrainian territory is beyond comprehension at this point.


C'mon, now, the Russians say it's those "self-defence units" just protecting petro-assets ....


> Crimean self-defence units prevented an act of sabotage on a gas pipeline on Saturday, March 15.
> 
> Prime Minister Sergei Aksyonov said the saboteurs had identified themselves as Ukrainian Border Guard Service officials.
> 
> “Crimean self-defence personnel prevented an attempt to block the gas pipeline to Crimea at the Arbatsky Spit. To prevent such attempts [in the future], the gas distribution station was put under protection. The persons who tried to damage the equipment - up to 40 people, according to preliminary information - and who identified themselves as Ukrainian Border Guard Service officials left the station in a hurry,” Aksyonov said.
> 
> He asked Russian Black Sea Fleet Commander Alexander Vitko to take the gas transportation system in this area under protection “in order to ensure energy security of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and uninterrupted operation of crucial facilities.”
> 
> Crimea has also created a month’s worth of water reserves and is installing diesel generators in case the Ukrainian authorities cut off electricity supplies to the peninsula.
> 
> “There are about 900 diesel generators in the autonomy. With the consumption of 300 to 500 tonnes of diesel fuel a day, we can have enough mobile generators to cover the entire peninsula,” Aksyonov said.
> 
> He admitted, though, that “there may be some problems with electricity supplies for two or three days [if Ukraine cuts off electricity to Crimea], but we have all the sites ready, equipment is here and is being installed,” the prime minister said ....


----------



## 57Chevy

From Eastern Mirror article (d/13Mar) and shared with provisions of The Copyright Act
---
[In an unusually robust and emotionally worded speech, German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned of “catastrophe” unless Russia changes course.
“We would not only see it, also as neighbors of Russia, as a threat. And it would not only change the European Union’s relationship with Russia,” she said in a speech in parliament. “No, this would also cause massive damage to Russia, economically and politically.”]
---

 Russia holds war games near Ukraine; Merkel warns of catastrophe


----------



## Journeyman

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Prime Minister Sergei Aksyonov said the saboteurs had identified themselves as Ukrainian Border Guard Service officials.


Because, if you're going to sabotage something, the first thing you do is pull out your business card or AMEX to ID yourself...   

Their IA people are even worse than ours   :


----------



## Good2Golf

Journeyman said:
			
		

> Because, if you're going to sabotage something, the first thing you do is pull out your business card or AMEX to ID yourself...
> 
> Their IA people are even worse than ours   :



Perhaps they were taking cues from Muhammed Saeed al-Sahaf?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Funny how Russia can (reportedly) agree to not do anything in Crimea when they have no troops there ....


> The defense ministries of Ukraine and Russia have agreed on a truce in Crimea until March 21, Ukraine's acting defense minister said on Sunday.
> 
> "An agreement has been reached with (Russia's) Black Sea Fleet and the Russian Defense Ministry on a truce in Crimea until March 21," Ihor Tenyukh told journalists on the sidelines of a cabinet meeting.
> 
> "No measures will be taken against our military facilities in Crimea during that time. Our military sites are therefore proceeding with a replenishment of reserves." ....


Reuters, 16 Mar 14


----------



## The Bread Guy

RoyalDrew said:
			
		

> I'm sure most "paramilitary" groups don't get their hands on what looks to be an HK417


I guess the reporters who don't call them "Russian troops" missed the flags at around 2:14 in this Russian media video and compared them to the one behind Russian paras at about 1:58 here - or to a flag you can buy for $25 here - screen captures also attached for reference.


----------



## Kirkhill

Meanwhile, checking Left of Arc:



> Russia lays down conditions to Moldova over Transnistria political status
> 13 march 2014, 13:14 print out copy link Share to Facebook Share to Twitter Share to LiveJournal Share to Delicious
> Russia calls on Moldova to abolish the Law “On the Main Provisions of a Special Legal Status of the Populated Areas on the Left Nistru Bank” issued in 2005.
> 
> Russian Foreign Ministry said in a press release that only after this move the government is willing to negotiate the political status of the Transnistrian region.
> 
> Russia acts as a mediator in the “5+2” talks, which is the official conflict settlement mechanism.
> 
> The statements emerged after Moldovan Deputy Minister for Transnistrian conflict Eugen Carpov spoke frankly in a talk show at UNIMEDIA news platform about ways to deal with the conflict, adding that the European Union and the United States should become mediators in this conflict.
> 
> EU and the US are currently observers in the “5+2” conflict resolution format. However, Russia does not want the two parties to become direct mediators of this conflict.
> 
> Authorities in Moscow seem to be affected by the comments, saying that the “it is not an accepted practice in international relations to disclose the positions of participants in multi-sided talks in such a detail. It is even stranger to hear this from Mr. Carpov, who always calls for restraint in relations with the press,” the Russian statement reads.
> 
> The Russian diplomacy claims it has been subject to accusation by the Moldovan official and it feels constrained to reply.
> 
> “If one was to put aside diplomatic vocabulary and plain ruses, for Moldova this is simply about extending the jurisdiction of this law to the left bank while completely ignoring the views of Tiraspol [so-called capital of separatist region],” the statement reads.
> 
> Kremlin added: “The calls by the Moldovan partners “to imagine that this law does not exist” cannot find the expected response. In circumstances when one of the sides has already solved the problem for itself, all discussions on this subject are too reminiscent of medieval scholastic debates about how many devils may fit upon the point of a needle.”



Link

To which the EU counters

EU Council votes for liberalizing visa regime for Moldova

Herman Van Rompuy congratulates Moldova on obtaining visa free regime with EU

And Moldova responds

Government of Moldova says Crimea referendum is illegal

Tiraspol is 100 km NW of Odessa.

Given that "Russian" forces have already jumped the choke points out of Crimea (troops at Strilkove and Chonhar on the eastern exits and at Armyansk on the western exit) I'm watching for Novooleksiivka and Antonivka to show up in the news shortly.  

I believe Odessa is the prize.


----------



## Kirkhill

Bulgaria  - the Opposition



> Volen Siderov, leader of *nationalist party Ataka, has demanded an extraordinary parliamentary sitting*   (not too loud I hope?)  on Monday on the situation in Ukraine and the Crimea secession referendum.
> 
> In a Sunday statement, Siderov called on Parliament Speaker Mihail Mikov to summon an extraordinary sitting during which the declarations of the parliamentary groups on the matter would be reviewed.
> 
> The nationalist leader demanded maximum transparency of the discussion and live coverage of the debates via the Bulgarian National Television and the Bulgarian National Radio, stressing that the people had to see for themselves the stance of each party.
> 
> Siderov yet again noted that *Ataka was adamant in its insistence on Bulgaria's neutrality on the conflict in Ukraine, adding that the party would recognize the outcome of the referendum in Crimea as legitimate.*
> 
> *He insisted that the intervention of the US in the domestic affairs of Ukraine had to be condemned*.
> 
> The leader of nationalist party Ataka argued that it was Bulgaria's Parliament and not the Foreign Minister which had to come up with a stance which reflected the interests of Bulgarians in Ukraine and Bulgaria's national interests.
> 
> - See more at: http://www.novinite.com/articles/158976/Bulgarian+Nationalists+Seek+Parliament+Sitting+on+Crimea+Referendum#sthash.U5lDJ1II.dpuf


----------



## Kirkhill

Serbia - Snap parliamentary elections called by Pro-EU government



> Serbia is holding early parliamentary elections on Sunday and local elections in Belgrade and a number of other towns.
> 
> Around 6.7 million Serbian nationals are eligible to vote for a new 250-seat parliament and they will be able to cast ballots by 20:00 CET on Sunday, according to reports of the BBC News.
> 
> The first official results are expected Sunday before midnight.
> 
> The early parliamentary elections were initiated by Serbia's Deputy Prime Minister and head of the governing center-right Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) Alexander Vucic.
> 
> In January, Vucic insisted that his party needed a stronger mandate to implement reforms and bring Serbia closer to EU membership. Polls show that the SNS-lead coalition has a clear lead.
> 
> SNS, head of a coalition of several smaller political parties, is expected to win a 45% vote share, according to a survey of the Center for Free Elections and Democracy CeSID.
> 
> The Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) of Ivica Dacic, the country's second largest political party, is expected to be backed by 13% of the voters, followed by the opposition Democratic Party of former Belgrade mayor Dragan Djilas with 10% and New Democratic Party of Boris Tadic with 8%.
> 
> - See more at: http://www.novinite.com/articles/158970/Serbia+Holds+Snap+Parliamentary+Elections%2C+Belgrade+Local+Elections#sthash.tHmZkvfK.dpuf


----------



## wannabe SF member

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> Meanwhile, checking Left of Arc:
> 
> Link
> 
> To which the EU counters
> 
> EU Council votes for liberalizing visa regime for Moldova
> 
> Herman Van Rompuy congratulates Moldova on obtaining visa free regime with EU
> 
> And Moldova responds
> 
> Government of Moldova says Crimea referendum is illegal
> 
> Tiraspol is 100 km NW of Odessa.
> 
> Given that "Russian" forces have already jumped the choke points out of Crimea (troops at Strilkove and Chonhar on the eastern exits and at Armyansk on the western exit) I'm watching for Novooleksiivka and Antonivka to show up in the news shortly.
> 
> I believe Odessa is the prize.



Would there be any major strategic gains to be obtained from capturing Odessa and essentially land locking Ukraine? I mean, that would be a major escalation!


----------



## Kirkhill

And the Centre (Moscow)

Massive Rallies in Moscow, Conflicting Numbers Reported - See more at: http://www.novinite.com/articles/158966/Massive+Rallies+in+Moscow%2C+Conflicting+Numbers+Reported#sthash.hqfaetWo.dpuf



> Thousands of people have taken to the streets of Russia’s capital Moscow to attend rallies both in support of and against the referendum in Crimea.
> 
> The Russian news agency ITAR-TASS reported 15,000 people marched in support of Crimea’s secession, while the counter-rally had numbered around 3,000.
> 
> Meanwhile, the BBC claims that “up to 50,000 people attended the rally in Moscow to oppose the government’s intervention in Crimea”.
> 
> There is no information about clashes between the opposing rallies, however RIA Novosti reports of several people detained in the anti-intervention march.
> 
> Ukraine’s autonomous region of Crimea will hold a referendum on Sunday to decide whether it will join the Russian Federation. The results will be recognized by Moscow, but not by the West
> 
> - See more at: http://www.novinite.com/articles/158966/Massive+Rallies+in+Moscow%2C+Conflicting+Numbers+Reported#sthash.hqfaetWo.dpuf



Followed by 



> On Wednesday, the owner of leading independent news website Lenta.ru fired its chief editor, Galina Timchenko, following official complaints over the outlet's coverage of Ukraine.
> 
> The communications regulator said Lenta.ru breached a law banning dissemination of extremist material by linking to comments by Dmytro Yarosh, a nationalist Ukrainian leader wanted in Russia on charges of instigating terrorism.
> 
> Ominously for online outlets, closure of websites deemed to contain "extremist" material or incitements to join unauthorized rallies can as of this year be closed without a court order.
> 
> One day after the Lenta.ru editor was fired, a handful of websites notable for their criticism of the government, and a blog run by prominent opposition leader Alexei Navalny, were summarily banned on a request from prosecutors.



Yahoo News

Meanwhile Ukraine is banning Russian language broadcast stations......

The deafness continues.


----------



## The Bread Guy

The latest decent OSINT map in English ....






.... while Eastern Ukraine heats up (thanks to pro-Russia folks)


> Protesters, on behalf of Kharkov’s assembly, asked Putin to “guarantee their rights and freedoms” and pass to the United Nations their demands regarding a referendum on the federalization, which they plan for April 27, reported Ukrainian National News (UNN) website. Additionally, activists asked to deploy Russian peacekeepers to Kharkov region, adding that they fear for their lives and property.
> 
> The demonstrators then marched to the nearby consulate of Poland, protesting against Western interference into Ukrainian affairs.
> 
> Kharkov protesters also looted the building housing offices of radical-nationalist organizations, including the Right Sector group, reported Interfax-Ukraine. The activists broke into the building, took out books and nationalist symbols and burnt them ....


----------



## Kirkhill

Inky said:
			
		

> Would there be any major strategic gains to be obtained from capturing Odessa and essentially land locking Ukraine? I mean, that would be a major escalation!



I'm not sure it would be a major escalation.  The British expression is "in for a penny, in for a pound" or "hanged for a sheep or a lamb".  I don't think the response to Russia taking Odessa is going to be any different than Russia taking Crimea and Kharkiv.

I think Vlad seas the Black Sea the same way we see the Great Lakes .... and in his lifetime he used to control all of that northern coast from Tbilisi to the Danube.

Now he sees NATO (the Dutch) building warships (JLSS) in his backyard (Galati in Romania).

Concurrently he sees Islamic Instability reaching out from Syria and Iraq, across Kurdistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey to Chechenya, Crimea (Tatars) and Bosnia.

The North Shore of the Black Sea is his line of Defence against Islam.  The Dniepr keeps Europe at bay.

Then he only has to worry about China and the Stans.....

Poor old Vlad.  Everybody is out of step except for him.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> .... Concurrently he sees Islamic Instability reaching out from Syria and Iraq, across Kurdistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey to Chechenya, *Crimea (Tatars)* and Bosnia.
> 
> The North Shore of the Black Sea is his line of Defence against Islam ....


Best to be careful about them.


----------



## Kirkhill

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Best to be careful about them.



It is not just the Tatars that are receiving "support" from foreigners.  Outsiders include Cossacks and Chetniks as well as Rus.





Link





Link


----------



## CougarKing

Surprise, surprise. The rigged referendum exit poll results are as follows:

So was there even a "No/Nyet" on the ballot?

 : :

National Post



> *‘Together with Russia’: 93% of Crimeans voted to join ‘motherland,’ exit polls show*
> 
> Bloomberg News | March 16, 2014 | Last Updated: Mar 16 4:35 PM ET
> 
> A majority of Crimeans chose to join Russia in a disputed referendum, exit polls showed, deepening the worst crisis between Russia and the West since the end of the Cold War.
> 
> A total of 93% voted today in favour of leaving Ukraine to become part of Russia, the Republican Institute of Social and Political Studies said, citing exit polls from the vote in the Black Sea peninsula. The Ukrainian government, the European Union and the U.S. all consider the referendum illegal. About 1.5 million Crimean voters were eligible to take part, according to the region’s prime minister.
> 
> As the West threatens to ratchet up sanctions if Russia doesn’t back down from annexing Crimea, Russia has deployed about 60,000 troops along the Ukrainian border, the government in Kyiv said. Ukraine closed border crossings to Russia and will mobilize as many as 15,000 volunteers in the next 15 days to defend the nation, officials said today.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## The Bread Guy

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> So was there even a "No/Nyet" on the ballot?


Nope.


			
				milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Meanwhile, a bit on the "damned if you do, damned if you don't" referendum ballot....
> 
> 
> 
> Sunday's vote in Ukraine's Crimea is being officially billed as a chance for the peninsula's peoples to decide fairly and freely their future - but in fact there is no room on the ballot paper for voting "Nyet" to control by Russia.
> 
> The Crimean voter will have the right to choose only one of two options in the March 16 referendum which the region's pro-Russian leadership, protected by Russian forces, announced earlier this month.
> 
> According to a format of the ballot paper, published on the parliament's website, the first question will ask: "Are you in favour of the reunification of Crimea with Russia as a part of the Russian Federation?"
> 
> The second asks: "Are you in favour of restoring the 1992 Constitution and the status of Crimea as a part of Ukraine?" ....
> 
> 
> 
> How do you say "sovereignty association" in Russian?
Click to expand...


----------



## Kat Stevens

At least in these days of democracy (coff coff) they haven't lost that ability to make referendums and elections entertaining, if nothing else.


----------



## Good2Golf

...at least it wasn't 100% for...   :


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> Meanwhile, checking Left of Arc:
> 
> Link
> 
> To which the EU counters
> 
> EU Council votes for liberalizing visa regime for Moldova
> 
> Herman Van Rompuy congratulates Moldova on obtaining visa free regime with EU
> 
> And Moldova responds
> 
> Government of Moldova says Crimea referendum is illegal
> 
> Tiraspol is 100 km NW of Odessa.
> 
> Given that "Russian" forces have already jumped the choke points out of Crimea (troops at Strilkove and Chonhar on the eastern exits and at Armyansk on the western exit) I'm watching for Novooleksiivka and Antonivka to show up in the news shortly.
> 
> I believe Odessa is the prize.



That is an interesting perspective Kirkhill.  If Odessa REALLY IS the prize then that would allow them to link up with Transnistrian forces which would have a wider impact on regional security.  It would also allow for the potential formation of one unified Pro-Russian Puppet State that would be too large to ignore.


----------



## vonGarvin

Utterly ridiculous reaction by The West (tm).  They see a plebiscite by secret ballot to be illegal and un-democratic, but a mob takeover of Kyiv because of a trade deal with Russia is?  I get it that sometimes it's necessary to storm the Bastille, but don't call it "democracy" when it happens.

By the way, Mr. Harper (et al) ought to be happy with this plebiscite.  I mean, when Kosovo (part of the sovereign territory of Serbia) opted to leave that area, and then violence ensued, guess what?  We (NATO) picked a side to help those people self-determine.  And if Quebec were to leave Confederation, and if part of Quebec wanted no part of it, would we ignore such a vote?

And the arrogance of us (The West) to criticize a people for voting, because a foreign power invaded.  The same could be said of Afghanistan that voted when we (The West) were fighting in Afghanistan.  And no, we weren't invited in, we invaded when Mullah Omar ran the joint, *and then* we set up a government, whom we supported (of course).

Let Russia have Crimea.  It doesn't want Ukraine, and the EU can go to Hell over this for all I care.  :2c:


----------



## CougarKing

Technoviking said:
			
		

> It doesn't want *western Ukraine but may want eastern Ukraine which has a lot of ethnic Russians* and the EU can go to Hell over this for all I care.  :2c:



TFTFY

(There, Fixed That for You), Herr Oberst!  ;D


----------



## vonGarvin

False.  Putin doesn't give a rat's behind about eastern Ukraine. His forces haven't gone in there, and they won't (barring some sort of odd-ball provocation), but they *did* go to Crimea.  Why?  The ports.  The Black Sea Fleet.  The means by which Russia can project its power globally.

The Don basin is nice and all, but means very little to Russia.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Technoviking said:
			
		

> Utterly ridiculous reaction by The West (tm).  They see a plebiscite by secret ballot to be illegal and un-democratic, but a mob takeover of Kyiv because of a trade deal with Russia is?  I get it that sometimes it's necessary to storm the Bastille, but don't call it "democracy" when it happens.
> 
> By the way, Mr. Harper (et al) ought to be happy with this plebiscite.  I mean, when Kosovo (part of the sovereign territory of Serbia) opted to leave that area, and then violence ensued, guess what?  We (NATO) picked a side to help those people self-determine.  And if Quebec were to leave Confederation, and if part of Quebec wanted no part of it, would we ignore such a vote?
> 
> And the arrogance of us (The West) to criticize a people for voting, because a foreign power invaded.  The same could be said of Afghanistan that voted when we (The West) were fighting in Afghanistan.  And no, we weren't invited in, we invaded when Mullah Omar ran the joint, *and then* we set up a government, whom we supported (of course).
> 
> Let Russia have Crimea.  It doesn't want Ukraine, and the EU can go to Hell over this for all I care.  :2c:



 :goodpost:


----------



## CougarKing

Technoviking said:
			
		

> False.  Putin doesn't give a rat's behind about eastern Ukraine. His forces haven't gone in there, and they won't (barring some sort of odd-ball provocation), but they *did* go to Crimea.  Why?  The ports.  The Black Sea Fleet.  The means by which Russia can project its power globally.
> 
> The Don basin is nice and all, but means very little to Russia.



Then what was the point of the Russian forces' incursion yesterday into the Kherson region of Ukraine- outside of Crimea- which was turned back after they were confronted by Ukrainian forces?

"A reconnaissance in force" to test Ukrainian resolve to defend their territory as the mainstream media says? 

And so you're essentially dismissing the pro-Kremlin sentiment that's turned into unrest in many parts of Eastern Ukraine?


----------



## vonGarvin

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> And so you're essentially dismissing the pro-Kremlin sentiment that's turned into unrest in many parts of Eastern Ukraine?


No not at all.  

Here's some video from Donetsk.  Remember that no such protests happened in Crimea, yet Russia went in.  For the port, for the fleet.  

As for going into Kherson?  Who knows.  But I do know that if Russia wanted Ukraine, they wouldn't tippy-toe in, they would go in much as they did in Berlin in 1945


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Edit:  Interesting article that lends a little bit of credibility to Kirkhill's argument that Odessa may be the real prize. 


Source:  http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2014/03/03/odessa_putins_next_stop_in_ukraine_107117.html


> March 3, 2014
> Odessa: Putin's Next Stop in Ukraine?
> By CDR Victor Vescovo, USN (Ret.)
> 
> 
> Russia's primary national security interest in Ukraine was and likely always will be the sprawling naval base of Sevastopol in southwest Crimea. Without it, Russia would not have the ability to project military power or even sustain a major naval fleet in the Black Sea and by extension, the Mediterranean. Furthermore, without Sevastopol, Russian air power would be confined to limited air bases in the eastern part of the Black Sea basin, thus ceding airspace dominance in the western portion of the Black Sea to Ukraine and the NATO countries that border it.
> 
> 
> For decades, the key to Russian influence over Ukraine has been its supply of natural gas to the country. Ukraine imports approximately 65% of its natural gas from Russia, giving Russia major influence over the country's foreign as well as domestic affairs. Whenever Ukraine has strayed too far from the Russian orbit, Russia has "turned off the tap" to quite literally freeze the Ukrainian people and their industries. Likewise, Russia has extended very lucrative natural gas terms to Ukraine to achieve political objectives, such as a long-term lease on Sevastopol that now extends until 2042, with an option to extend it to 2047.
> 
> Ukraine can import crude oil and gasoline via its bulk fuel terminals in Sevastopol and Odessa, the two major ports in Ukraine. Until recently, it hasn't been economical or even technically possible to import large amounts of natural gas into Ukraine via the sea. However, this has changed in the past five years and there are now serious discussions underway to build liquefied natural gas (LNG) receiving terminals in Odessa in order to break the Russian grip on Ukraine's energy supply. According to energy industry reports, Ukraine has considered building at least one major LNG receiving terminal to be operational by 2018 at five potential sites. All five are at, or within 50 miles of, Odessa.
> 
> If Odessa and its environs remain free from Russian interference, Ukraine could significantly diversify its energy supply in the next 10 years and reduce its dependence on Russian energy.
> 
> But if Russia pushes beyond the Crimean peninsula to capture the city of Odessa and the nearby coastal areas of southern Ukraine, Russia would eliminate Ukraine's ability to import significant volumes of LNG directly and prolong its ability to influence Ukraine through manipulation of its natural gas supply.
> 
> Ukraine has limited alternatives for reducing its dependence on Russia. More natural gas could be obtained from Western sources via pipelines in Poland or Romania, for example. However, major pipelines to carry the required natural gas do not exist and pipeline construction might take even longer to permit and construct than building coastal LNG terminals. Poland and Romania might be better gas pipeline partners than Russia, but the security risk would remain.
> 
> Ukraine could also pursue greater natural gas drilling using hydraulic fracturing techniques, which have had major success in the United States. Ukraine has large potential shale gas fields that are now only being tested for their gas-generation ability, however, it is not clear if those fields will be economical to exploit. Early attempts to exploit Polish shale fields have met with failure due primarily to the more difficult geology of the formations compared to those in the U.S. Ukraine could very well be similar given their geographic proximity.
> 
> The situation for Ukraine is made worse by the fact that most of the Odessa region's population are Russian-speakers and the region voted primarily for Viktor Yanukovych in the last election. Just as in Crimea, Russia could use the excuse of protecting Russian-speakers from violent Ukrainian nationalists to justify intervention.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The key to Ukraine’s energy independence from Russia and, therefore, its ability to determine its own political future lies in Odessa – the city, its port area and energy infrastructure, and the access to Black Sea it provides. Crimea is likely lost. But if Ukraine is to survive, all of its current focus should be on Odessa and preventing any Russian movements against this vital region from Crimea, Transnistria, or Russian territory.
> 
> The government in Kiev’s control of the Ukrainian military is in question. But if the military is to serve any defense purpose in this hour of need, it must secure control of all airport, communications, and port facilities in and around Odessa.
> 
> Further, the military should block major and minor roads Russian forces could use to access Odessa. This should begin with the highways leading out of the Crimean peninsula through the cities of Armyans'k and Chonbar, 200 and 250 miles from Odessa respectively. It should also send forces to block the longer coastal route from Russia on Ukraine’s eastern border.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia could potentially secure Odessa via amphibious assault from Sevastopol and other Russian ports along the Black Sea such as Novorossiysk, but amphibious attacks are among the most difficult of all military operations and would likely only be attempted if Odessa was left relatively undefended. Hence, even a limited garrisoning and defense of the Odessa-area coast might succeed in deterring such an action.
> 
> Finally, Russia could use its forces in the breakaway state of Transnistria, currently estimated to be at approximately 1,200 heavily armed troops, to move directly to the Odessa area. The Russian-occupied capital, Tiraspol, is only 60 miles from Odessa, putting Russian troops within a few short hours from Odessa on the M-16 highway. If the Ukraine military does not block that road to Odessa, it might be read as an open invitation to take the crucial city. Russia could fly a significant number of airmobile troops directly from Russia to Tiraspol to execute a larger movement of troops over time. Curioiusly, there seems to be little or no general reporting about the disposition or movement of troops in the Transnistria.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So far, Russia’s conquest has been bloodless. Ukraine may succeed in preventing further Russian aggression by raising the military stakes with an affirmative defense of Odessa.
> 
> Therefore, while all the world is focused on Crimea and the Russian anschluss of that key province, the Ukrainian government and military should do its very best to prevent another Russian fait accompli by securing its permanent access to the sea. With the Crimea solidly in Russian hands, the future of Ukraine lies in Odessa.
> 
> Commander Vescovo served for 20 years as a Navy Reserve intelligence officer with specialties in operational targeting and counter-terrorism. The opinions reflected herein are those of the author and do not represent the views of the United States Navy.


----------



## Edward Campbell

I think taking Odessa would be going too far.

While no one, I think, wants to deprive Russia of *a* Black Sea port, taking the biggest and best would fundamentally alter the balance in the Black Sea and, suddenly, we, the US led West, _might_ have a _*vital* strategic interest_, too.

A port too far, so to speak.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Edited to add PM's statement:


> Prime Minister Stephen Harper today issued the following statement on the results of the Crimean “referendum”:
> 
> “The so-called referendum held today was conducted with Crimea under illegal military occupation. Its results are a reflection of nothing more than Russian military control.
> 
> “This “referendum” is illegitimate, it has no legal effect, and we do not recognize its outcome. As a result of Russia's refusal to seek a path of de-escalation, we are working with our G-7 partners and other allies to coordinate additional sanctions against those responsible.
> 
> “Any solution to this crisis must respect the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine as well as the constitution of Ukraine. Mr. Putin's reckless and unilateral actions will lead only to Russia's further economic and political isolation from the international community.”



Meanwhile, is someone dropping by for "a goodwill visit"****?


> Amid fears of a wider conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the (U.S.) Army still plans to conduct an exercise in Ukraine this July, a spokesman for U.S. European Command told Army Times.
> 
> Exercise Rapid Trident 2014 is expected to take place near L’viv, Ukraine and will involve units from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Canada, Georgia, Germany, Moldova, Poland, Romania, the United Kingdom and Ukraine, said Lt. Col. David Westover Jr.
> 
> Planning for the exercise is scheduled for May.
> 
> Notably, the exercise will focus on training for peacekeeping, not repelling an enemy invader.
> 
> “As of today, the plan is to train a U.S.-Ukrainian combined battalion headquarters in a Field Training Exercise with a peace support operations scenario,” Westover said in an email Friday to Army Times. “Exercise planning will continue until we are told otherwise.” ....


_Military Times_, 16 Mar 14


** - based on this exchange from this episode of _"Yes, Prime Minister"_


----------



## Kirkhill

One other point about Odessa.

With Odessa in Ukraine hands then two governments separate Russia from Europe.  Poland on the Baltic and its neighbour Ukraine on the Black Sea.

Russia and Europe would be definitively separated.


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> One other point about Odessa.
> 
> With Odessa in Ukraine hands then two governments separate Russia from Europe.  Poland on the Baltic and its neighbour Ukraine on the Black Sea.
> 
> Russia and Europe would be definitively separated.



agreed, I think Putin wants his buffer states back, any way possible, Georgia is too close to NATO (Turkey), and if Ukraine went west then NATO troops would be on Russias border


----------



## Kirkhill

Two interesting articles about the future of warfare:

Mind the Gap: Putin’s Actions and the Future of War

Playing by Putin’s tactics

Short form -

The future is not about tanks, aircraft and rifles.

It is about tv cameras, Potemkin, dezinformatsiya, criminals, irregulars, riots and civil disobedience.  The man with the gun only shows up when he is invited in.

Ukraine has bought its Western support not by killing a thousand Russians but by sacrificing 100 Ukrainians.

Vlad can't be seen to be slaughtering Ukrainians.  He aspires to be seen as preventing Ukrainians from slaughtering Russians.

The non-violent, disciplined tactics of the Ukrainian forces are also an effective response.    Russians killing Ukrainian soldiers who merely hold their ground and do not respond in kind would not make for the type of images Vlad needs and wants.

Gandhi's Soldiers.  Or the anti-thesis of Patton.


Edit:  The New Face of War


----------



## Kirkhill

> 18.36 The Russian media is starting to refer to a broad belt of land in southern Ukraine as Novorossiya, or New Russia, the Tsarist-era name for the region.



Daily Telegraph






Link from an apparently Russian oriented source - (It's the Internet for Gawdsake)


----------



## Kirkhill

Check the Map below (including Novorossiya) 

If true then who's next?


----------



## Kat Stevens

Now, let me think... where have we seen all this before?  Protecting ethnic (insert name here) from persecution?  What's the Russian word for Lebensraum again?


----------



## YZT580

The stiff sanctions imposed should have an affect. :-[ :-[As soon as they were announced the Soviet stock market went up.  Refusing Disneyland passes  to 11 diplomats is hardly going to cause anyone to back off.  But it wouldn't surprise me if some movement alert notices were sent out very shortly.  Even if the french and english have forgotten about 1938/39 you can be sure that the Czech republic and Poland haven't and they will be agitating loud and hard for some physical demonstration of solidarity with the Ukraines.  After all, they spent 4 decades under Putin style rule, they don't want it to happen again.  

And truly, I don't believe it would take a lot.  A squadron of F18s and a platoon of infantry from each Nato country lined up on the border would draw a definite line without being overly belligerent.


----------



## GR66

I think that Western governments made a serious strategic error in not recognizing the fairly unique situation in Crimea.  The Russians have a very specific strategic interest in the Crimean peninsula and their takeover was somewhat of a "perfect storm".  The Russian majority in Crimea seems happy and willing to rejoin the motherland.  Russia has the strategic imperative of keeping hold of its Black Sea Harbour.  The Crimea itself is unique among the Russian speaking regions of Ukraine in that it is an autonomous Oblast with it's own constitution and its own Prime Minister (within the Ukrainian constitution) and was "gifted" to the Ukrainian SSR from Russia only in 1954.

Once the Russian take-over was in effect a "done deal" there was virtually no chance that it would be undone by anything the West or Ukraine could (or would be willing) to do.  NATO was not going to start a war to re-liberate Russian Crimeans that don't want to be re-liberated.  There appears to be no prospect of non-Russian Crimeans rising up against the Russian occupation, and the (new) Ukrainian government is (wisely) unlikely/incapable of trying to retake the region by force.  

Now I certainly don't agree with or like what the Russians have done, but honestly there is not much we can do (or could have done) to stop it.  The rest of Russian-speaking Ukraine is a different story.  However we've wasted our diplomatic firepower fighting a lost cause and demanding that the Russians give up the Crimea and our efforts have failed.  Now the Russians know we are timid and fairly toothless in backing up our righteous indignation and may be emboldened to try and "liberate" even more of their Russian brothers and sisters from other parts Eastern and Southern Ukraine.

If however we had been smarter we might have recognized that Crimea was a lost battle and instead focused our efforts on preventing further Russian expansion.  We could have let the Russians know that we accept that Crimea is was a "special"' situation but let Putin know that further Russian expansion into Ukraine would be unacceptable.  We could have offered the new Ukrainian government economic aid but at the same time pushed them to restore linguistic freedom to the Russian areas in the East so as to take away a Russian pretext for moving in to "protect" their oppressed Russian neighbours.  Russia was willing to defy the world in order to get the Crimea.  The West demanded they stop and did nothing of meaning.  Russia had enough strategic interest there to call our bluff and were proved correct.  Putin may now think that he can call our bluff again in other Russian regions of Ukraine.  If instead we had allowed him his already achieved victory in Crimea (with the expected diplomatic bluster in response) and focused all our efforts on protecting the REST of Ukraine he might have been left wondering if it is worth calling our bluff over regions where he has less strategic interest.


----------



## Kirkhill

What are we going to do to ensure that Ukraine (whatever shape it finally ends up with) and the Baltic Countries have at least the same level of freedom the Finns secured for themselves during the Cold War?


----------



## YZT580

As GR66 stated, the Crimea is theoretically a unique situation.  True, but it wasn't one that required any form of military intervention.  There was little to no pressure on Russia to evacuate: they had an agreement that was good for the foreseeable future (2042).  They had their warm water naval base and the infrastructure to support it.  There was therefore no need to force the issue.  Therefore there are other issues that are more important to them that they feel need to be addressed and the main one is the lose of influence on Eastern Europe to the EU.  This was evidenced in their attitude towards Serbia, Romania to a lesser extent and made obvious by their invasion of Georgia.  Once they lose their energy grip on Europe most of their control is gone and that will happen what with the US and Canada both net energy exporters within a few years and the potential for fracking within Europe itself.  I suspect that they feel that from this point on they can only grow weaker and thus now is the time to cement their sphere of influence.  Without a Maggie Thatcher or Ronald Reagan to provide some form of moral leadership not one of the current leaders in the west has the cojones to stand up, say no more and be believed.  Sadly, the only question left to be answered is "who's next?"


----------



## Kat Stevens

Putin has sat back and watched "The West" throw it's money and it's sons and daughters into a couple of drawn out wars with no clear result when the dust settled.  The people of "The West" are tired of it, the governments are tired of it, and are unwilling to go again over a place that is "way over there", and not really our problem.  He threw the dice and rolled a 7, how many more throws do we think he's going to try?


----------



## Bird_Gunner45

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> What are we going to do to ensure that Ukraine (whatever shape it finally ends up with) and the Baltic Countries have at least the same level of freedom the Finns secured for themselves during the Cold War?



What are we the US and Germany going to do to ensure that Ukraine (whatever shape it finally ends up with) and the Baltic Countries have at least the same level of freedom the Finns secured for themselves during the Cold War?

FTFY. Canada has the square root of n/5 with n=f**k all to offer to this situation. Frankly, this is a eastern european matter. The comparisons to Germany prior to WW2 are silly and reflect a modicum of historical understanding. One has to remember that France and England declared war on Germany, not vice versa. Any argument that states what Germany may or may not have done had the allies not declared war is counter factual. 

Even, suppose for a moment, that Russia DOES in fact intend on taking Odessa. So what? Even if they take back predominantly Russian areas than Russia is still weaker than they were in 1991. They still have zero ability to project real power against the west. And they are still a declining power. 

If the future of warfare is indeed changing, as has been suggested, than it would, by default, have a limit on its ability. TV presence and assymetric can achieve limited goals in limited conflict. they cannot obtain unlimited offensive action. If Russia wants to force itself on unwilling neighbours than it is symetric and not assymetric threats that will tell the tale.


----------



## 57Chevy

Shared with provisions of The Copyright Act


 US, Germany inspectors to fly over Russia amid Ukraine tensions 

American and German inspectors will make observation flights over Russia and Belarus within the framework of the international treaty on Open Skies. The mission is set to verify the true position of Russian troops and military equipment.

Starting from March 17, military inspectors from the United States and Germany will perform flights over European Russia and Belarus to check the real whereabouts of Russian troops following accusations from Ukraine that Russia is consolidating military forces close to its borders. The inspection will continue through March 21. 

“The flights will be performed on the Swedish observation plane SAAB-340,” head of the National Nuclear Threat Reduction Center, Sergey Ryzhkov, told Itar-Tass. 

Ryzhkov specified that the flights will be performed on agreed routes only and that representatives of the Russian and Belarus military will be present onboard to ensure that the observation equipment on board is used strictly in accordance with the treaty’s provisions and that the flight adheres to coordinated parameters.

article continues...

info. (Wikipedia)
 Treaty on Open Skies


----------



## a_majoor

Putin is enjoying putting the boots to the West and this administration in particular. In his and many Russian's minds, this is a very agreeable payback for decades of (what they see as) humiliation and loss of Russia's "Imperial" status in the family of nations. I am pretty sure the Russians will continue to rub our collective noses in this for as long as they think they can get away with it. Based on the response so far, I expect this will be a long time indeed:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2014/03/the-1930s-are-calling.php



> *THE 1930S ARE CALLING*
> 
> Commentators with a cruel memory have recalled the moment from one of the 2012 presidential debates when President Obama cited Mitt Romney’s warning about the growing threat from Russia and dismissed it with a superficially sophisticated remark: “The 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back.”
> 
> When I hear President Obama threatening to impose consequences on Vladimir Putin et al., or imposing them, as he did today, I think: “The 1930s are now calling to ask for their piece of paper back.” The piece of paper would be the one Obama carries in his pocket whenever he meets with a tyrant.
> 
> Neville Chamberlain waved it upon his return to London from Munich in 1938, declaring that it represented “peace for our time.” “Our time” was roughly ten months.
> 
> Having sized up Obama and his Team of Nitwits, Putin won’t even give them a fig leaf. Why bother?
> 
> Putin is to Obama what Samuel Johnson was to James Boswell and Bishop Berkeley. He is a walking refutation of Obama’s fantasy world of the “international community” and “smart power.” When you see Vladimir Putin, think Samuel Johnson:
> 
> _After we came out of the church, we stood talking for some time together of Bishop Berkeley’s ingenious sophistry to prove the nonexistence of matter, and that every thing in the universe is merely ideal. I observed, that though we are satisfied his doctrine is not true, it is impossible to refute it. I never shall forget the alacrity with which Johnson answered, striking his foot with mighty force against a large stone, till he rebounded from it — “I refute it thus.”_
> 
> Putin refutes Obama “thus.”
> 
> Putin is making Marx look good. I mean Marx the pundit, not Marx the economist. The guy who said history repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce.
> 
> For the record, this is what the sanctions announced by Obama wrought today:
> 
> The new executive order Obama signed Monday targeted seven Russian government officials — Vladislav Surkov, Sergey Glazyev, Leonid Slutsky, Andrei Klishas, Valentina Matviyenko, Dmitry Rogozin and Yelena Mizulina — and used an existing order to sanction four Ukrainians, including the country’s former president.
> 
> Four others are targeted under the executive order Obama issued earlier this month: Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and former chief of staff Viktor Medvedchuk, as well as Crimea separatist leaders Sergey Aksyonov and Vladimir Konstantinov.
> 
> Monday’s order authorizes Treasury Secretary Jack Lew to work with Secretary of State John Kerry to impose asset freezes and travel restrictions on “any individual or entity that operates in the Russian arms industry, and any designated individual or entity that acts on behalf of, or that provides material or other support to, any senior Russian government official,” the White House said in a statement.
> 
> The sanctions are intended to “impose costs on named individuals who wield influence in the Russian government and those responsible for the deteriorating situation in Ukraine,” the White House said in its statement.
> 
> “We expect that these sanctions will be effective,” a senior administration official said. “Going forward, we have the ability to ramp up our pressure.”
> 
> I’m guessing there is a good reason the senior administration official required anonymity. He prefers not to out himself as a fool.
> 
> When the official announces that the Team of Nitwits expects the sanctions will be effective, do you suppose that they expect them to result in the restoration of Crimea to Ukraine? The stated expectation is ambiguous, but I doubt even they believe that. *Rather, they will be “effective” in a Pickwickian sense. They will make those announcing them feel better.*
> 
> Obama intensely wants to sell out to Putin, but Putin isn’t buying. He prefers to take without the patina of agreement. He views Obama with the utmost contempt, and he is proving himself a rather more perceptive student of character than his Western counterparts, Obama foremost among them.


----------



## Journeyman

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> What are we going to do to ensure that Ukraine (whatever shape it finally ends up with) and the Baltic Countries have at least the same level of freedom the Finns secured for themselves during the Cold War?


*Neither Ukraine nor the Finns are NATO members*; the three Baltic countries are. 

As much as I have little use for NATO, I suspect that _any_ Russian move towards those countries would be a different game.



And until such moves happen, I'm backing away from this thread.  Have at 'er.


----------



## vonGarvin

Kat Stevens said:
			
		

> Now, let me think... where have we seen all this before?  Protecting ethnic (insert name here) from persecution?  What's the Russian word for Lebensraum again?


среда обитания


----------



## vonGarvin

Thucydides said:
			
		

> Putin is enjoying putting the boots to the West and this administration in particular. In his and many Russian's minds, this is a very agreeable payback for decades of (what they see as) humiliation and loss of Russia's "Imperial" status in the family of nations. I am pretty sure the Russians will continue to rub our collective noses in this for as long as they think they can get away with it. Based on the response so far, I expect this will be a long time indeed



Only Putin can be Putin.  And he's doing rather well at it.


----------



## Old Sweat

This piece in the National Post by John Ivison is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act. 

John Ivison: Crimea crisis forcing Harper to rethink NATO, Arctic defence


John Ivison | March 17, 2014 | Last Updated: Mar 17 8:01 PM ET


For many Canadians, the events in Crimea constitute a quarrel in a far-away country between people of whom they know nothing, to quote Neville Chamberlain on the 1938 Sudeten crisis.

But Russia is not that far away. It borders our Arctic frontier. It’s a country with which we have conflicting claims over sovereignty of the Arctic sea-bed and, perhaps, its waters. And it’s a country that has shown itself prepared to use military force to satisfy its territorial ambitions.

There is a growing consensus the Harper government’s hard line over events in Ukraine is going to require a radical new defence doctrine, prepared for the contingency of an expansionist Russia.

Stephen Harper has soured on NATO, viewing it through the prism of Afghanistan, where the alliance was deemed to have placed an undue burden on a small number of participating members.

In 2011, senior Canadian bureaucrats worried that participating in a NATO exercise in northern Norway “could be misconstrued to contradict government policy in the Arctic.”

Mr. Harper himself warned NATO’s secretary-general that the alliance had “no role” in the Arctic and that pressure for involvement was coming from nations who wanted to exert their influence in a region “where they don’t belong,” according to a U.S. diplomatic cable released as part of the Wikileaks package.

Canada voted with its wallet in 2012, when it pulled out of NATO’s air surveillance program, AWACS, ostensibly to save money. The U.S. did likewise, cutting its funding contribution by 20%.

But Russia’s adventures in Crimea have breathed new life into NATO and diplomats in Brussels are waiting to see whether Mr. Harper will find renewed enthusiasm for the alliance, and for other collective security measures like ballistic missile defence.

Signs of Russian ambition in the Arctic have been apparent since it sent a mini-submarine to plant a flag on the sea-bed beneath the North Pole. The Putin regime has been steadily increasing its military capability there since 2007 and has been clear that it deems any foreign interests — be they government, commercial or environmental — as hostile.


NATO commanders say they have been increasingly concerned about Russian “muscle-flexing” but, according to a paper by Padrtova Barbora of the Centre for European and North Atlantic Affairs, “NATO’s role in the Arctic is uncertain and unfocused.”

Both Russian and Canadian policy in the Arctic has been cartoonish in its own way, designed for domestic consumption, with rhetoric far outstripping capability.

But while the Russians have been re-arming — building a new generation of nuclear powered icebreakers; new ballistic missile submarines; and, creating two special army brigades to be based in the Arctic — Canada is still talking.

“Everything is still in the planning stages but it is a plan that never comes forward,” said Rob Huebert, associate professor in the department of political science at the University of Calgary, referring to the Arctic patrol vessels, supply ships and replacement fighter jets that remain very much works in progress.

There is no doubt that Mr. Harper is in the vanguard of those who want to reverse Russia’s actions in the Ukraine. I remember talking to him about Vladimir Putin after the invasion of Georgia in 2008. “Showing weakness or hesitation encourages this type of behaviour on the part of the Russians,” he said.

But Mr. Putin knows Canada is a paper tiger. Most of the increased military spending in the last decade went into the army — new fighter jets have not yet been ordered and, according to two officers of parliament, there is unlikely to be enough money in the kitty to replace the warships that are due to be decommissioned.


The Senate defence committee is taking another look at ballistic missile defence, but Mr. Harper has yet to engage with the Obama administration.

The current priority for the Harper government is to balance the budget in time for the 2015 election. But foreign crises seldom respect the parliamentary calendar.

In a defence world that has just been turned upside down, the current budget cuts may need to be re-thought.

The recent Strategic Outlook by the CDA Institute made three specific recommendations in this regard — Canadian participation in a continental ballistic missile defence shield; creation of a maritime NORAD, integrating Canada’s navy and coast guard with that of the U.S.; and, a sufficient number of ships to patrol Canada’s three coastlines.

David Bercuson, director at the Centre for Military and Strategic Studies at the University of Calgary, talks about the “Finlandization” of Europe — the concept that smaller countries try not to challenge larger neighbours in foreign policy, while attempting to maintain national sovereignty. “We’re back to Finlandization, on a smaller scale. There’s no undoing it, even if the Russians pull out of Crimea,” he said.

The prospect is already causing a radical re-think of policy in countries like Sweden, which is flirting with the idea of NATO membership, after nearly 200 years of “splendid isolation.” Jan Bjorklund, Sweden’s deputy prime minister, floated the idea, warning Russia could seize Gotland, a Swedish island province in the Baltic Sea, if it chose to attack Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

The only concept Mr. Putin does appear to understand is Cold War orthodoxy, the balance of power.

On its own, Canada is as impotent as Finland. But in a re-energized, re-financed NATO, the united military potential dwarfs that of the Russians.

“Canada has to frame its defence policy in this reality,” said Dr. Bercuson.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Ukrainian Ministry of Defence:  operators are standing by for your donations for our logistical/medical needs!


> *Within the "Support the Ukrainian army" on account of the Ministry has received almost 9.9 million USD*
> 
> | 18.03.2014 | | 09:42 |
> 
> As of March 17 to the accounts of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine within the "Support the Ukrainian army" has received almost 9.9 million USD from businesses and individuals as an aid to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
> 
> In particular, legal persons by transfer of about 1.9 million, of which USD 119 thousand - for health, others - on the logistics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
> 
> Individuals in the accounts of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine received 5,746,000 USD (5.336 million USD for logistical and 410 thousand - for medical care).
> 
> With a single call to a mobile number "565" in support of the Ukrainian army lists 2 million 235 thousand UAH (all - on the logistics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine).


UKR MoD, 18 Mar 14 (Google English) - original in Ukrainian



> *Attention citizens of Ukraine! Cash donations for the logistical and medical support Ukraine's Armed Forces is now possible to make also in foreign currency*
> 
> | 18.03.2014 | | 09:11 |
> 
> Attention! Due to the numerous appeals of individuals and legal entities - non-residents of Ukraine wishing to make monetary donations (in foreign currency) for logistical and medical support to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine established the relevant details for the transfer.
> 
> PS UAH equivalent donations (after the implementation of the established order of foreign currency) zarahovuvatymetsya the relevant treasury bills of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and used for its intended purpose ....


UKR MoD, 18 Mar 14 (Google English) - original in Ukrainian


----------



## Nemo888

But didn't we start this by forcing out a democratically elected leader by coup and installing "Yats" who was our chosen puppet? Like any game of Risk you played as a kid when you take Ukraine from someone their is always the possibility of them flipping over the board. Victoria Neuland thought she was winning and getting NATO on Russia's doorstep. She blew it.


----------



## vonGarvin

Nemo888 said:
			
		

> Like any game of Risk you played as a kid when you take Ukraine from someone their is always the possibility of them flipping over the board.


----------



## Journeyman

Nemo888 said:
			
		

> But didn't *we* start this by forcing out a democratically elected leader .....


      :Tin-Foil-Hat:

 I know for a fact it wasn't _me_.   :not-again:


----------



## Kirkhill

Journeyman said:
			
		

> :Tin-Foil-Hat:
> 
> I know for a fact it wasn't _me_.   :not-again:



Nor me.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Back to reality, some *initial* reports of shooting and attempts to seize UKR military facilities.



			
				Journeyman said:
			
		

> :Tin-Foil-Hat:
> 
> I know for a fact it wasn't _me_.   :not-again:





			
				Kirkhill said:
			
		

> Nor me.


:Tin-Foil-Hat: 





:Tin-Foil-Hat:


----------



## KerryBlue

I guess its sort of official now, Crimea is now back in the USSR(whoops Russia) 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26630062



> *Ukraine crisis: Putin signs Russia-Crimea treaty*
> 
> 
> President Vladimir Putin and the leaders of Crimea have signed a bill to absorb the peninsula into Russia.
> 
> Mr Putin told parliament Crimea had "always been part of Russia" and he had corrected a "historical injustice".
> 
> Crimea was taken over by pro-Russian forces in late February after Ukraine's president was ousted, and declared independence from Ukraine on Monday.
> 
> Kiev said it would never accept the treaty and the US has called a G7-EU crisis meeting next week in The Hague.
> 
> US Vice-President Joe Biden, speaking in Poland, said Russia's involvement in Crimea was "a brazen military incursion" and its annexation of the territory was "nothing more than a land grab" by Moscow.




More at link


----------



## Edward Campbell

We need to remember the old story* of _The Walrus and the Carpenter_ ... 

Putin is the walrus, I guess Merkel represents the carpenter, complaining only about how thickly the butter is spread. Ukraine, whatever's left of it, and Crimea, whatever's made of it, are the Oysters. Crimea was the fattest one, the one "of the largest size," the one the wily walrus ate first!

_____
* Well, it's not all _that_ old, only about twice as old as me, actually.  :nod:


----------



## The Bread Guy

Interesting analysis - highlights mine ....


> If Russia succeeds with its Anschluss of Crimea, *Moscow will be in a position to dramatically expand its naval base a Sevastopol and thus change the military balance in the Black and Mediterranean seas*, an outcome that could have geopolitical consequences as severe as Vladimir Putin’s efforts to dismantle and humble Ukraine.
> 
> The Sevastopol base has always been a key player in the politics of Crimea – it allowed Moscow to flex its military muscle there with only a relatively small introduction of additional forces – but in the anger and euphoria of the so-called “referendum” and Putin’s indication that Crimea will join Russia, few have considered how Moscow will exploit the base now that it will be on domestic rather than foreign soil.
> 
> An exception is an article posted on the Svobodnaya Pressa portal yesterday, in which commentators Sergey Ishchenko and Vasily Vankov suggest that “after the return of the Crimea, there will be an opportunity to sharply strengthen [Russia’s] military presence” there and thus in the region as a whole (http://svpressa.ru/war21/article/83846/).
> 
> *Prior to the Crimean vote, many in the Russian navy and general staff felt that the prospects for the base were anything but positive, given that the Maidan very much opposed its continued presence on Ukrainian soil*. But now that Crimea and Sevastopol have become “finally and irreversibly” part of Russia, the two say, everything has been turned upside down.
> 
> Instead of being restricted by Ukrainian rules and facing further declines in the size and readiness of its naval and air forces in Sevastopol, Ishchenko and Vankov say, *Moscow military planners can now plan for greater freedom of action, the expansion of the fleet, and what may be especially important the reopening of a shipyard for the construction of new vessels*.
> 
> Just how important this is for Russia was highlighted, the two continue, by the *difficulties Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu faced in trying to reanimate Russia’s Mediterranean squadron, difficulties that will be largely overcome first by having Sevastopol as a domestic base and then by filling it with new or overhauled ships*.
> 
> Some new vessels have already arrived and more are on the way, they say, and “it is not excluded” that a French-built helicopter carrier that was supposed to go to the Pacific will now be based in Sevastopol instead. That could provide a new nucleus for the Black Sea fleet by 2016.
> 
> But the shift in physical control from Ukraine to Russia has more immediate consequences. One the one hand, several Russian ships now will be able to leave their ports for exercises and not be “prisoners” of the Ukrainians. And on the other, Russia may be able to absorb some or all of the Ukrainian navy vessels now on the peninsula.
> 
> *In Kyiv, the two analysts say, defense officials still are operating under “the illusions” that they will be able to get their ships and personnel back*. But those who are there already will not have that option, and Russian officials certainly will not allow any new Ukrainian vessels to come to Crimea ....


----------



## Edward Campbell

Things that make you go _"Hmmm ..."_ in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the _Financial Times_:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7dbb5ffc-ae4f-11e3-bc07-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=intl


> Global stocks advance after Putin speech
> 
> By Jamie Chisholm and Dave Shellock
> 
> Tuesday 15:30 GMT.
> 
> Global stocks are extending earlier gains as participants take comfort from comments by Vladimir Putin that Moscow is not intending to expand its military presence in Ukraine.
> 
> There was a brief wobble in the markets following reports that troops in Simferopol, the Crimean capital, were “storming” a Ukrainian military base – although it remained unclear who was behind the incident. One Ukrainian officer was reported to have been wounded.
> 
> Instead, the chief driver of market action has been Mr Putin’s exhortation not to believe “those who say that Russia will take other regions following Crimea.”
> 
> “Evidently, frayed investor nerves have been soothed for now by Mr Putin’s statement that there will be no further split up of neighbouring Ukraine after the Crimea referendum, and Russian energy minister Alexander Novak telling reporters that he expects gas transit through Ukraine to continue as normal,” said Samarjit Shankar, global strategist at BNY Mellon.
> 
> Though Mr Putin reiterated a call for Crimea to be annexed by Russia, the tone of his comments were possibly less bellicose than some traders had feared. They seem to have bolstered investor hopes that the Ukraine crisis can be contained without further military action or a significant ratcheting up of economic sanctions between Russia and the international community.
> 
> On Wall Street, the S&P 500 is currently up 0.6 per cent at 1,870 – just 8 points below its recent record closing high. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 has turned initial losses into a 0.9 per cent gain.
> 
> Moscow’s Micex index jumped 4.1 per cent and the rouble, which was weaker by 0.5 per cent at one point, is currently softer by just 0.2 per cent – though at Rbs36.21 it remains close to record lows against the dollar.
> 
> Similarly, measures of Russia’s credit risk are easing back from recent highs. Moscow’s 10-year implied borrowing costs are down 10 basis points to 9.33 per cent and the cost of insuring the country’s five-year debt is easing 15bp to 255bp, according to Markit.
> 
> As tensions ease, so demand for bolt-holes fades. The 10-year US Treasury yield had been down 3 basis points but is now just 1bp lower at 2.68 per cent, with traders again shrugging off a poor house building report as weather-affected. Equivalent maturity Bund yields are flat at 1.57 per cent. Gold is dropping $10 to $1,356 a troy ounce.
> 
> Moves in forex have been volatile. Traders’ favourite currency haven, the yen, swiftly lost ground on Mr Putin’s comments, only to strengthen again, an indication perhaps that not all investors are convinced about the broader market’s newfound risk appetite.
> 
> The euro has also been wobbly, supported by news that Germany’s constitutional court confirmed the legality of the bloc’s bailout fund but hampered by falling German economic confidence and Kiev’s rejection of Crimea’s accession into Russia.
> 
> Currently, the yen is up 0.3 per cent to Y101.46 per dollar and the single currency is down 0.1 per cent at $1.3905.
> 
> In turn, the dollar index is 0.1 per cent higher at 79.46, just a dozen or so pips shy of a four-month low as investor attention turns to what new Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen may say about the economy at her press conference following the central bank’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday.
> 
> The Fed is widely expected to continue reducing its monthly bond buying programme, trimming purchases by $10bn to $55bn and Ms Yellen may outline changes to forward guidance on policy.
> 
> Earlier in Asia, the mood was always more positive as bourses tracked Wall Street’s overnight gains. In Japan the Nikkei 225 rallied 0.9 per cent, but that came when the yen was weak at the start of the session. The yen’s subsequent bounce – given additional momentum by news that Japan’s land prices rose for the first time in six years – has pushed Nikkei futures lower and that suggests a soft open on Wednesday.
> 
> Moves in Greater China were more circumspect. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong added 0.5 per cent and on the mainland the Shanghai Composite inched up just 0.1 per cent after property prices showed signs of cooling.
> New home prices in China’s 70 major cities rose 8.7 per cent in February, year-on-year, versus a 9.6 per cent increase the previous month, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
> 
> The data came as reports emerged that Chinese property developer Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate does not have enough cash to repay its debts, exacerbating concerns about a swath of defaults damaging sentiment in the world’s second-biggest economy.
> 
> Meanwhile, the onshore renminbi exchange rate is down 0.2 per cent to 6.19 per US dollar, a fresh 11-month low. On Monday, the Chinese currency dropped 0.5 per cent, one of its biggest daily declines since China reformed its currency regime in 2005, after the People’s Bank of China doubled the currency’s trading band to 2 per cent over the weekend.
> 
> _Additional reporting by Patrick McGee in Hong Kong_




So, the markets have spoken ... for whatever _that's_ worth.


----------



## The Bread Guy

A bit more detail ....


> Troops stormed a Ukrainian base on the outskirts of Simferopol on Tuesday, according to a Ukrainian military spokesman.
> 
> One Ukrainian officer was initially reported to have been wounded in the neck. The Interfax and Reuters news agencies reported that a soldier had been killed.
> 
> Kyiv has blamed Russia for the attack.
> 
> A reporter for the AFP news agency said a burst of gunfire had been heard from a Ukrainian military unit in a suburb northeast of Simferopol. Two ambulances were seen driving into the area.
> 
> Immediately after the incident, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk said the conflict had moved from a political to a military stage.
> 
> "Today, Russian soldiers began shooting at Ukrainian servicemen," said Yatseniuk. "This is a war crime." ....



And the Russian version, according to an ABC reporter?


> #Russia version of Simferopol shooting says #Crimea "self-defense fighters were shot by a sniper," 1 killed.


----------



## midget-boyd91

> "Today, Russian soldiers began shooting at Ukrainian servicemen," said Yatseniuk. "This is a war crime." ....



This just sounds odd... 
He's already stated that Russia has essentially declared war, and the conflict is now a military one....

 A war crime for one armed faction to fire on the opposing armed faction is hardly a war crime IMO... regardless of how much I disagree with Russia's blatant aggression and annexation.


----------



## Edward Campbell

There is a useful interactive _infographic_ in this article at _Bruegel_, a European think tank specializing in economic issues. Click on the *Gazprom Imports* (% of Gas Consumption) button.


----------



## Kirkhill

It is interesting to compare Poland to Ukraine in the CIA's World Fact Book.

Poland has fewer "natural" advantages than Ukraine but is rapidly moving into Western European standards of living.  Unlike Ukraine.

One of Poland's advantages, and Germany's for that matter, is that they are still mining coal.

While most of Ukraine's coal is mined in the Donbass the Galician fields mined by the Poles used to be mined by the Ukrainians as well.

"Europe" could back foot Putin by putting a moratorium on their Green Policies and reactivating coal fields - both for coal and for gas (or coke and coal gas if you prefer).

Europe has alternate energy supplies, if it wants to use them.  What other sources of quick cash does Putin have?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> "Europe" could back foot Putin by putting a moratorium on their Green Policies and reactivating coal fields - both for coal and for gas (or coke and coal gas if you prefer).
> 
> Europe has alternate energy supplies, if it wants to use them.  What other sources of quick cash does Putin have?


Good lever, actually.  

I get the impression, though, that the European greens/left may be underwhelmed by this - and they wield a fair bit of clout.  They have to be convinced that coal is the best alternative to having no more Russian oil/gas.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Is it true the EU backed Ukraine side of the house wanted to ban all minor languages?


----------



## Kirkhill

It doesn't get any dirtier than Brown Coal and no one is Greener than Germany.



> Germany Plans to Raze Towns for Brown Coal and Cheap Energy
> Villages face the bulldozer as one of Europe’s renewable energy leaders leans more heavily on an old habit.



National Geographic FEBRUARY 11, 2014


----------



## Kirkhill

Its true OZ.  But that has since been withdrawn.

Having said that.  Ukraine isn't Canada.  Most former members of the USSR dealt with language bans.  Nobody ever banned French in Quebec.....



> 1911 – Resolution VIIth congress of the nobility in Moscow's only Russian-language education and the inadmissibility of the use of other languages in schools in Russia.
> 1914 – Prohibition of celebrating the 100th anniversary of Taras Shevchenko, the decree of Nicholas II prohibition of the Ukrainian press.
> 1914, 1916 – Russification campaign in western Ukraine, the prohibition of the Ukrainian word, education, church.
> 1922 – Part of the proclamation of the Central Committee of the RCP (b), and the Communist Party (b) the "theory" of the struggle between the two cultures in Ukraine – city (Russian) and peasant (Ukrainian), which should win the first one.
> 1924 – Law of the Republic of Poland on limiting the use of the Ukrainian language in the administration, judiciary, education subservient to the Polish Ukrainian lands.
> 1924 – Kingdom of Romania law on the obligations of all the "Romanians" who "lost their mother language," to educate children only in Romanian schools.
> 1925 – Ukrainian final closure of the "secret" of the university in Lviv
> 1926 – Stalin's letter to "Comrade. Kaganovich and other members of the Politburo of the Central Committee of the CP (B) U with the sanction of the struggle against the "national bias", the beginning harassment of "Ukrainization".
> 1933 – Stalin's telegram to stop "Ukrainization".
> 1933 – Abolition in Romania Ministerial Decree of 31 December 1929, which permits a few hours a week of the Ukrainian language in schools with a majority of students with the Ukrainians.
> 1934 – A special order of the Ministry of Education of Romania's dismissal "for the hostile attitude of the State and the Romanian people" of all Ukrainian teachers who demanded the return to school of Ukrainian.
> 1938 – SNK and the CPSU (B) "Compulsory study of the Russian language in the schools of the national republics and regions", the corresponding decision SNK USSR and the Central Committee of the CP(b)U.
> 1947 – "Operation Vistula", resettlement of ethnic Ukrainians from the Ukrainian lands "scattered" among the Poles in western Poland to speed up polonisation.
> 1958 – Enshrined in Art. 20 Principles of Legislation of the USSR and the Union Republics on Public Education of the situation on the free choice of language learning, the study of all languages except Russian, at the request of students' parents.
> 1960–1980 – Ukrainian mass closure of schools in Poland and Romania.
> 1970 – Order of the thesis defense only in Russian.
> 1972 – Prohibition of party bodies to celebrate the anniversary of the museum Kotlyarevskyi in Poltava.
> 1973 – Prohibition to celebrate the anniversary of I. Kotlyarevskogo "Aeneid."
> 1974 – Resolution of the Central Committee of the CPSU "On preparing for the 50th anniversary of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics", which first proclaimed the creation of a "new historical community – the Soviet people", the official policy of denationalization.
> 1978 – The decision of the Central Committee of the CPSU and the USSR Council of Ministers "On measures to further improve the study and exposition of the Russian language in the Soviet republics" ("The Brezhnev Circular").
> 1983 – The decision of the Central Committee of the CPSU and the USSR Council of Ministers "On additional measures to improve the study of the Russian language in schools and other educational institutions of the Union Republics" ("Andropov decree").
> 1984 – Resolution of the Central Committee of the CPSU and the USSR Council of Ministers "On further improvement of secondary education for young people and improving the working conditions of secondary school."
> 1984 – Back to the USSR payments increased by 15% of the salary for teachers of the Russian language in comparison with teachers of Ukrainian language.
> 1984 – Order of the Ministry of Culture of the USSR on the transfer proceedings in all the museums of the Soviet Union, the Russian language.
> 1989 – Resolution of the Central Committee of the "Legislating the Russian language as a nation-wide."
> 1990 – Adopted by the Supreme Soviet of the USSR Law on the Languages of the Peoples of the USSR, where Russian is granted official status.



Courtesy of Wikipedia


----------



## KerryBlue

ObedientiaZelum said:
			
		

> Is it true the EU backed Ukraine side of the house wanted to ban all minor languages?



They repealed a law passed in 2012 by Yanukovich's government allowing minority language(Russian, Hungarian etc but primarily Russian)  to be used in in local government. It's main impact was on eastern Ukrainians who are primarily Russian speakers. 

http://rt.com/news/ukraine-language-lavrov-asselborn-627/


----------



## Kirkhill

Interesting Link to EuraCoal 

Edit:

And an Economist article on Shale Gas and Fracking (Which Germany permits and has done for some decades)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> It doesn't get any dirtier than Brown Coal and no one is Greener than Germany.
> 
> National Geographic FEBRUARY 11, 2014





			
				Kirkhill said:
			
		

> Interesting Link to EuraCoal
> 
> Edit:
> 
> And an Economist article on Shale Gas and Fracking (Which Germany permits and has done for some decades)


Thanks for those - much appreciated info to ponder.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Has anyone transmitted "Rocking Horse" yet?  ;D


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Things are beginning to escalate



> *Shots fired in Crimea; Ukraine soldier killed*
> Michael Winter, USA TODAY 10:11 p.m. EDT March 18, 2014
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine authorities authorized soldiers to shoot in self-defense Tuesday after an officer was killed when gunmen attacked a besieged military base near the capital of Crimea, according to news reports.
> 
> The shooting came hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin and Crimean leaders signed a treaty that makes the Black Sea peninsula part of the Russian Federation, a move the White House and European leaders called an illegal annexation. Residents of Crimea voted Sunday to secede from Ukraine.
> 
> The soldier's death was the first since Russian troops took control of Crimea in February after pro-Moscow President Viktor Yanukovych fled Ukraine following deadly mass protests over his decision to scrap closer ties with the European Union.
> 
> A witness told the BBC that armed men got out of two unmarked vehicles outside Simferopol and stormed the mapping facility, firing automatic weapons. A junior officer manning a tower was killed, along with a Crimean self-defense force member, the Interfax News Agency reported. Another Ukrainian officer was wounded in the neck.
> 
> MORE: Putin's move on Crimea bolsters popularity back home
> 
> The attackers detained other soldiers, who wore Russian uniforms, the Ukrainian News Agency reported, citing a defense ministry official.
> 
> A pro-Russian news outlet created by Crimean authorities gave a different account, claiming snipers fired on the base and on self-defense forces checking a report of armed men at the facility. One self-defense brigade members was also killed, a police spokesman told Interfax.
> 
> "The conflict is moving from a political one to a military one because of Russian soldiers," Ukrainian Prime Ministe Arseniy Yatsenyuk said at the defense ministry. "Today, Russian soldiers began shooting at Ukrainian servicemen and this is a war crime without any expiry under a statute of limitations."
> 
> Acting President Aleksandr Turchinov authorized Ukrainian troops in Crimea to use firearms to "defend their lives" after the shooting.



Source: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/03/18/ukraine-crimea-shooting-soldier-killed/6576697/


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

The French begin to up the ante?  Then again why they were ever selling Russia weapons in the first place goes to show how "reliable" some of our non five eyes NATO partners really are.



> *Ukraine: France warns Russia it could cancel warships deal*
> French foreign minister says £1bn contract for two high-tech Mistral warships could be blocked if situation escalates
> Kim Willsher in Paris theguardian.com, Tuesday 18 March 2014 11.58 GMT
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The French naval vessel, Tonnerre. The ship is an example of a Mistral warship of the type the French are selling to Russia. Photograph: Arnaud Roine/AP
> 
> France might cancel a controversial deal to sell two state-of-the-art warships to Russia but only if Britain also acted against Russian oligarchs in London, according to the French foreign minister.
> 
> Speaking after Russian president Vladimir Putin approved a draft bill for the annexation of Crimea before the parliament in Moscow, Laurent Fabius warned he "could envisage" blocking the €1.2bn (£1bn) sale.
> 
> France is due to deliver two high-tech Mistral warships to Russia. The first, christened the Vladivostok, has already undergone sea trials from the port of Saint-Nazaire. A second, called the Sevastopol, is due to be completed by the end of next year.
> 
> "If Putin continues doing what he is doing we could envisage cancelling the sales," Fabius told TF1 television on Tuesday. "This would be part of a third level of sanctions. For the moment we are at the second level.
> 
> "But we will ask others, and I'm thinking namely the British, to do the same with the assets of the Russian oligarchs in London. Sanctions have to be shouldered by everyone."
> 
> Fabius admitted cancelling the contracts would be "negative for the French" - and his comments drew swift criticism from Russia's deputy prime minister, Dmitry Rogozin.
> 
> "France is starting to undermine confidence in it as a reliable provider in the very sensitive sector of military and technical co-operation," Rogozin, who oversees the military sector, said on Twitter.
> 
> Fabius's comments mark an apparent change of tack by Paris, which had previously ruled out blocking the deal. Even as the Crimea crisis erupted, the French president, François Hollande, insisted the contract would be honoured. Asked if the deal would be cancelled last Thursday, Fabius replied: "We'd rather not reach that point."
> 
> The deal, the first between Russia and a Nato country, had already raised deep misgivings among France's allies when it was signed by former centre-right president Nicolas Sarkozy in 2011, just three years after the Russian invasion of Georgia in the Caucasus.
> 
> The Mistral – a 180-metre, 22,000-ton vessel – is capable of carrying 16 helicopters, four landing craft, 60 armoured vehicles, 13 battle tanks and between 450 and 700 soldiers for up to six months and will give the ageing Russian naval fleet a new lease of life. The vessel is known by the French navy as a military "Swiss army knife" for its multiple attack capabilities and use as a command centre, hospital as well as helicopter and troop carrier. The Russians have taken an option on a further two Mistral warships.
> 
> In 2008, Commander Vladimir Vysotsky, head of the Russian navy, said his forces would have been victorious in Georgia "in just 40 minutes" if his ageing Black Sea fleet had been equipped with the French warships.
> 
> Shortly afterwards, Putin said during a visit to Paris: "I can assure you that if we purchase this armament, we will use it wherever deemed necessary."
> 
> At the time of the deal both Washington and several of Russia's neighbours, including the three Baltic states, criticised Paris's decision to sell the warships to Moscow, which was still referring to Nato as an enemy.
> 
> Republican senators wrote to the French ambassador in Washington complaining the sale was inappropriate because it would suggest France approved of Russia's "increasingly aggressive and illegal" conduct. In 2010, former American defence secretary Robert Gates made no secret about the US's disapproval of the Mistral deal.
> 
> "Yes, we [the US and the French] did discuss it. We had a good and thorough exchange of views. I will leave it at that," Gates said.
> 
> France, however, was jubilant with the Elysée declaring: "France's naval industry has won." Sarkozy also rejected criticism at the time. "The cold war is finished … we have to consider Russia as a friend and have to work with her to build a vast area of security and prosperity together," he said.
> 
> France has insisted it is not fitting the ships with weapons technology. However, Moscow has said the deal includes the technology from France to produce the Mistral's command and control system itself.


----------



## FAL

Technoviking said:
			
		

> среда обитания



жилой площади
операция Барбароса?


----------



## The Bread Guy

An interesting tidbit:  is this a live webcam feed of a (still) Ukrainian base?

Also, another domino falls - the Russian media account ....


> Over 30 Ukrainian servicemen have left the Ukrainian Navy HQ in the town of Sevastopol on the Crimean Peninsula after demonstrators stormed the premises early in the morning.  Rear Admiral Sergey Gaiduk of the Ukrainian Navy has walked out of the HQ along with the 30 servicemen without any interference from the Crimean self-defense forces or activists from Sevastopol, according to Interfax.  People began protesting outside the HQ at 08:00 GMT. Several thousand participants cut fences, stormed inside and changed the flags on the flagpoles. Some of the participants of the rally were singing the Russian national anthem.  There were no immediate reports of violence ….


.... versus a mainstream media account:


> Russian troops and unarmed men stormed Ukraine's naval headquarters in the Crimean port of Sevastopol on Wednesday and raised the Russian flag in a tense but peaceful takeover that signals Moscow's intent to neutralise any armed opposition.
> 
> Russian soldiers, and so-called "self-defence" units of mainly unarmed volunteers who are supporting them across the Black Sea peninsula, moved in early in the morning and quickly took control.
> 
> Shortly after the incident, Ukraine's acting Defence Minister Ihor Tenyukh said in Kiev that the country's forces would not withdraw from Crimea even though Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a treaty to make it part of Russia.
> 
> But an hour later, Ukrainian servicemen, unarmed and in civilian clothing, began walking out of the headquarters.
> 
> Interfax Ukraine news agency said the commander of the Ukrainian navy, Admiral Serhiy Haiduk, was among those who left and was driven away by officers of Russia's FSB intelligence service. The report could not be independently confirmed ....





















_ - edited to fix operator format #$%^-up -_


----------



## Journeyman

FAL said:
			
		

> операция Барбароса?


 :  If we're not going to Ukraine, we're certainly not going to Russia


----------



## a_majoor

I'd be very interested to see where the funding for these people is actually coming from. Judging by how Canadian "environmentalists" carefully launder funding from the Tides Foundation, I imagine the funding for US environmentalists also goes through several layers to disguise the true source. Ask yourself, "_Cui bono_?":

http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/201093-greens-pressure-obama-to-reject-expansion-of-natural-gas-exports



> *Greens pressure Obama to reject expansion of natural gas exports*
> 
> By Timothy Cama
> 
> Environmental groups called on President Obama Tuesday to reject pending applications to build liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals, citing the negative impacts from natural gas throughout its life cycle.
> 
> The pressure from green groups comes amid Republican calls for the administration to speed up the application process in response to Russia’s use of its natural gas resources as political leverage over Europe. Russia supplies most of Ukraine’s natural gas and is also a major supplier throughout much of Europe.
> 
> The GOP argues the U.S. could loosen Russia’s grip over Ukraine and Europe by building more terminals and exporting more natural gas.
> The environmental groups focused their argument on Cove Point, a proposed terminal in Lusby, Md., but also argued that the idea of increasing exports of natural gas to help Ukraine was misguided because most of the exports would likely go to Asia, where prices are higher.
> 
> The Sierra Club, 350.org and the Chesapeake Coalition, along with other allied groups, specifically asked Obama to have the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to conduct a full environmental review of Dominion Resources Inc.’s proposed Cove Point terminal.
> 
> “The proposed Cove Point LNG terminal would certainly make gas companies richer, but it would make our own country more poor,” Michael Brune, executive director of Sierra Club, told reporters Tuesday. “Building a new LNG terminal doesn’t strengthen our nation, and it further disrupts our climate.”
> 
> The groups argue increasing production of natural gas would lead to more hydraulic fracturing, commonly known as fracking, a natural-gas extraction process they said causes massive harm to the environment while releasing large amounts of greenhouse gas.
> 
> Bill McKibben, founder of 350.org, warned that supporting natural gas could be politically detrimental to the president.
> 
> “Everybody’s watching now, this kind of stuff. And Democratic politicians who thought they might get by with a wink and a nod aren’t,” McKibben said. “Fracking’s become a dirty word, for good reason. “
> 
> In a statement responding to the letter, Dominion said natural gas could cut greenhouse gas emissions in half compared to using coal for electricity.
> 
> “Slowing or preventing natural gas exports from the United States is a step in exactly the wrong direction for those who are concerned about climate change,” Pamela Faggert, Dominion’s chief environmental officer, said in the statement.
> 
> FERC did not respond to requests for comment.
> 
> A bill sponsored by Rep. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) would force the Obama administration to approve all pending LNG export terminal applications.
> 
> This story was posted at 2:58 p.m. and updated at 7:43 p.m.
> .
> 
> Read more: http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/201093-greens-pressure-obama-to-reject-expansion-of-natural-gas-exports#ixzz2wPew5ej9
> Follow us: @thehill on Twitter | TheHill on Facebook


----------



## The Bread Guy

Journeyman said:
			
		

> FAL said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> операция Барбароса?
> 
> 
> 
> :  If we're not going to Ukraine, we're certainly not going to Russia
Click to expand...

Still, _someone_ seems worried ....


> *Dozens of volunteers from the Donbas Region in eastern Ukraine have been setting up checkpoints to prevent Ukrainian military personnel from reaching the Russian border*, one of the organizers of the movement told RT.
> 
> The unarmed activists are being coordinated by a local group called People’s Militia of Donbas and there are currently over 20 posts that have been set up on various roads in the region, the group’s Deputy Director Sergey Tsyplakov told RT.
> 
> The purpose of the posts is to prevent the Ukrainian military equipment from reaching the eastern border with Russia, averting further escalation of the conflict.
> 
> “There are 10 to 30 people at each post and they continuously switch with one another,” Tsyplakov said.
> 
> The majority of the checkpoints have been set up alongside the police posts and “the road police is helping out.” But, in more isolated spots there are more volunteers taking initiative. “People are helping around with tents and firewood,” Tsyplakov added.
> 
> People call in to donate or they bring supplies themselves to various posts, while the People’s Militia of Donbas just provides logistical support.
> 
> “People are volunteering to help out with delivering food and supplies to keep the posts going … We coordinate and send people out to different posts,” Tsyplakov stated.
> 
> “The first one out there were just the general public who saw military equipment coming, so they blocked rivers used to transport military equipment … They blocked railways used to bring in military supplies as well,” he said ....


What helpful, community-spirited (not to mention reasonably well and uniformly equipped) folk those pro-Russians seem to be.

All joking aside, if this is indeed happening, sounds pretty "Yugoslav" to me - and not in a good way.


----------



## a_majoor

China scatters the cards from the Administration's already weak hand:

http://www.the-american-interest.com/blog/2014/03/16/china-to-west-dont-you-dare-sanction-russia/



> *China to West: Don’t You Dare Sanction Russia*
> 
> In an interview with Reuters, China’s ambassador to Germany offered a stark warning to the West as it seeks to sanction top Russian officials over the Ukraine invasion. ”We don’t see any point in sanctions,” said Ambassador Shi Mingde. “Sanctions could lead to retaliatory action, and that would trigger a spiral with unforeseeable consequences. We don’t want this.”
> 
> No doubt few countries are watching the Ukraine crisis as closely as China. Both Russia and China share an interest in limiting the West’s ability to interfere in certain sensitive areas. As Beijing continues building a formidable navy and coast guard, and flexing its muscles in the South and East China Seas, policy-makers are paying close attention to how much provocation the West is willing to endure. As Gideon Rachman, the FT‘s foreign affairs guru, wrote this week, “If President Vladimir Putin gets away with it then other governments, such as China and Iran, may decide defying America is getting less risky.”
> 
> The question of how the US, which has defense pacts with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, will react to increased and ongoing Chinese belligerence in Asia is one of the most important geopolitical questions of the moment, and one of the top reasons to pay attention to what’s happening in Ukraine. In this age of deep economic links between countries that rival each other for political and strategic power—like China and the US—sanctions can inflict pain on the sanctioner almost as much as on the target country. Rachman writes: “In theory, the US could restrict the imports of Chinese goods – or even, in extremis, use the US navy to block China’s energy imports. But, like the Russians, the Chinese would have plenty of economic weapons with which to retaliate, from the disruption of the supply chains of American corporations to a refusal to buy US Treasury bills.”
> 
> Ultimately, Rachman concludes, “Even if the Ukraine crisis makes the west look temporarily weak, the long-run trends are still much more favourable to the US and the EU than to Russia.” With China however, which is playing this game with a much stronger hand than Russia’s, that conclusion is far from certain.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Someone who reads Russian will, I hope, help us with this, but I'm told that this article announces a $1.5B railway bridge to connect continental Russia to Crimea across the Strait of Kerch.






Apparently the notion of this bridge goes back to Albert Speer in 1943.

Based on the costs of the Sochi Olympics we should _quesstimate_ the budget as $15 Billion.


----------



## vonGarvin

I can read *a bit* of Russian, and yes, it talks of a bridge between the Taman Peninsula and Kerch.  For that very price.  Also, it notes in the article (at the end) that there was a rail bridge built there in 1944 based on a draft plan they captured from the Germans.  It collapsed due to the lack of ice-breaking design factors.


----------



## The Bread Guy

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Someone who reads Russian will, I hope, help us with this, but I'm told that this article announces a $1.5B railway bridge to connect continental Russia to Crimea across the Strait of Kerch.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Apparently the notion of this bridge goes back to Albert Speer in 1943.
> 
> Based on the costs of the Sochi Olympics we should _quesstimate_ the budget as $15 Billion.


Good catch, E.R.C. - here's what Agence France-Presse is saying, shared with the usual caveats:


> Russia will build a rail and road bridge from Crimea to southern Russia, President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday, confirming the long-planned project would go ahead after Russia seized the peninsula.
> 
> "Here we need a bridge to take both cars and trains," Putin said at a meeting with his ministers, cited on the Kremlin website.
> 
> The bridge would allow Russia to deliver people and cargoes directly to Crimea without going through mainland Ukraine. Currently there is only a basic car and pedestrian ferry service across the 4.5 kilometre (2.8 mile) wide Kerch strait.
> 
> Transport minister Maxim Sokolov earlier this week estimated the project would cost a minimum 50 billion rubles ($1.4 billion) and take at least three-and-a-half years.
> 
> Ukrainian officials previously put the cost at $1-3 billion.
> 
> Sokolov told Putin that Russia was also studying the option of building a rail tunnel under the seabed, where he said there were "complex geological and hydrological conditions."
> 
> "We will carry out all these parallel processes as quickly as possible in order to start the construction of the bridge as soon as possible," the transport minister said.
> 
> A spokesman for state monopoly Russian Railways, cited by RIA Novosti news agency, said the company was "ready to take part in developing the project".
> 
> Early this month, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev put federal road agency Rosavtodor in charge of the bridge project.
> 
> The project had been agreed in December between Russia and the former Ukrainian government of now ousted president Viktor Yanukovych.
> 
> A bridge between the Crimean town of Kerch and the long Chushka spit on the Taman peninsula in Russia's Krasnodar region has been envisioned for decades since the Soviet era.
> 
> The German army began to construct a link in 1943, when the Crimea was under Nazi occupation.
> 
> Soviet authorities later finished the bridge, but it was destroyed by shifting ice even before the end of World War II.
> 
> In the 1990s, a new bridge was lobbied for by then-mayor of Moscow Yury Luzhkov, with reports estimating the cost at about $1 billion at the time.


----------



## vonGarvin

[tangent]
The film "Cross of Iron" by Sam Pekinpah is set on the Taman Peninsula.  In it, the Germans are pushed back towards Anapa, thence to the Kerch peninsula.





[/tangent]


----------



## a_majoor

Building the bridge is only part of it, electrical infrastructure and natural gas pipelines will also hae to be laid to the Crimea from Russian territory (among other things).


----------



## a_majoor

Info ops and information warfare has been a big part of the Russian and Ukrainian operations. Here is a forecast of how things are changing with info ops (via Strategy Page)

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htiw/articles/20140317.aspx



> *Information Warfare: Antidote For The Big Lie*
> 
> March 17, 2014: The Russian campaign to annex Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine is encountering problems from Internet based organizations that are using material found on the web to debunk the Russian disinformation campaign. In Russia the national media is state controlled but the Internet censorship system the government has been trying to install is still not complete. Thus information found on the Internet gets through. There’s a lot of popular opposition to government censorship of the Internet which has slowed government efforts to shut down this annoying antidote for official media deceptions.
> 
> What the Russian government is trying to do is use a series of outright but constantly repeated lies about what is going on in Ukraine to justify Russian military moves to annex parts of Ukraine. They used the technique successfully in 2008 when they went after the tiny Caucasus state of Georgia and annexed six percent of Georgian territory. This is called the “Big Lie” technique and while often attributed to the Nazi founder Adolf Hitler (who boasted in print of using it) it’s actually thousands of years old. We have written evidence of the ancient Pharaoh’s using it as did Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar and Napoleon.
> 
> At the end of World War I, as Russia collapsed into civil war, the small Russian Communist Party used the Big Lie a lot. The most obvious example was calling themselves the “Bolsheviks” (Russian for majority) even though they were hardly that.  Because of squabble with other faction in the socialist movement the communists needed all the help they could get. The faction led by Vladimir Lenin continued to call his group Bolsheviks until they really were. After the establishment of the Soviet Union in the early 1920s the Big Lie went on to become a standard tool for Information War operations. The Soviets admired how the Germans used the Big Lie while Hitler admired how the Soviet Police state so effectively (and ruthlessly) dealt with dissent.
> 
> When the Soviet government dissolved in 1991 the Big Lie fell into disfavor for a while but having been such an essential part of the political landscape for so long it was soon back in action. One reason the current Russian government has made such energetic efforts to impose Internet censorship is because the Internet has proved to be an effective and cheap antidote for the Big Lie. The use of the Internet to quickly cripple Big Lies may yet cause Russia serious problems in Ukraine. Then again state control of the mass media enables the Russian government to quickly pump out Big Lies faster than Internet based debunking web sites can expose the falsehoods. The Internet does not kill Big Lies on contact but does shorten the lifespan of Big Lies and diminishes the use of Big Lies for whatever issue they are being applied to. So Russia may well achieve its goals in Ukraine before the Internet can cripple all the Big Lies Russia deployed in support of their land grab.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Not to mention the oppression faced by our brothers and sisters in  Brighton Beach  >


> Russia signaled concern on Wednesday at Estonia's treatment of its large ethnic Russian minority, comparing language policy in the Baltic state with what it said was a call in Ukraine to prevent the use of Russian.
> 
> Russia has defended its annexation of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula by arguing it has the right to protect Russian-speakers outside its borders, so the reference to linguistic tensions in another former Soviet republic comes at a highly sensitive moment.
> 
> Russia fully supported the protection of the rights of linguistic minorities, a Moscow diplomat told the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva, according to a summary of the session issued by the U.N.'s information department.
> 
> "Language should not be used to segregate and isolate groups," the diplomat was reported as saying. Russia was "concerned by steps taken in this regard in Estonia as well as in Ukraine," the Moscow envoy was said to have added.
> 
> The text of the Russian remarks, echoing long-standing complaints over Estonia's insistence that the large Russian minority in the east of the country should be able to speak Estonian, was not immediately available.
> 
> But amid the growing Crimea crisis, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - which like Ukraine were all parts of the old Soviet Union - have expressed growing apprehension over Moscow's intentions ....


Reuters, 19 Mar 14


----------



## Kirkhill

> Moldova's Trans-Dniester region pleads to join Russia



BBC 18 Mar 2014


----------



## Kirkhill

> *“Prime Minister” of Crimea appeals to Odessa to secede Ukraine*
> 
> MARCH 11, 2014 BY NIKOLAI HOLMOV 1 COMMENT
> 
> Well here is an interesting appeal.
> 
> The Prime Minister (perhaps) of Crimea, making an appeal to the people of Odessa to overthrow the politicians, demand a referendum and secede from Ukraine.
> 
> http://vk.com/video18631635_167893324?list=961b907af95f7b5a69&og=1
> 
> I’m not quite sure how much traction he thinks his appeal is going to get, but I suspect he is going to be very disappointed.  The only Russian flag flying in Odessa at the moment is raised over the Russian Consulate.  Everywhere else the flag of Ukraine flutters in the sea breeze.
> It may be that Odessa is a Russian speaking city.  It may be that residents of Odessa may see things through a slightly different lens to those in Lviv and Kyiv – but it is also true that they see things in a slightly different way to those in Donetsk and Kharkiv too.
> There is a saying repeatedly heard in Odessa born out of centuries of cosmopolitan exposure via the ports that perhaps other parts of Ukraine have never really been subjected to  – “Ukraine is Ukraine, but Odessa is Odessa”.  In normal circumstances that is entirely true.  Normally nobody here pays much attention to who says what in Kyiv or Donetsk or Lviv – no matter how important those people may think they are.
> 
> But these are not normal circumstances.
> 
> Flags of Ukraine and the Odessa City flags are far more noticeable than ever before.  Not simply on government buildings as is normally the case, but on commercial premises, domestic property, and hung out of car windows.
> 
> Odessa collectively will continue to speak Russian as the language of first choice – come what may, of that there is no doubt.  But be also of little doubt that there is a strong Ukrainian patriotism that is equally robust and stubborn that will not wilt to the overtures of appeals from Crimea – or strong arm tactics from The Kremlin should they come.
> 
> As an aside, unsurprisingly, Moscow has PR firms now rapidly canvassing those with previous election monitoring experience to go to Crimea to monitor the referendum.
> 
> As always the ultimate issue with monitoring is who writes the reports – and who decides who writes the report.
> 
> The issue at hand for Moscow is how to make an illegitimate referendum appear a little more legitimate – naturally.



Link


----------



## Kirkhill

Here's another new map - Prompted by an article in the Telegraph of a Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian Brigade standing up.

This is the map Vlad doesn't want.  But his actions may have created.

On the other hand - suppose this is the beginning of the Easterners in NATO taking a more self-centred view on defence and setting the Westerners to one side.

A BalTO focused on maintaining a Finnish association with both Russia and the EU?


----------



## CougarKing

For those wondering about China's angle on the Ukraine crisis:

Ukraine's defense industry: China's interest in Ukraine


----------



## The Bread Guy

And to shift gears for a moment, any suggested captions here?




First crack - "What do you mean "no face visible, no service" ?"


----------



## vonGarvin

"Can I get some Tartar with my Perogis?"


----------



## Jungle

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> And to shift gears for a moment, any suggested captions here?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> First crack - "What do you mean "no face visible, no service" ?"



Guy on the left: "_Give us three of those prosciutto and brie sandwiches, with bavarian mustard_"
Guy in the center: "_Yeah, Russian cooks realy suck... what's with that f*&k*&g chinstrap!! Our helmets suck too, and I had to buy the goggles to look cool_."
Guy on the right: "_I didn't build that gut on cabbage soup... I'll take 3 bags of chips and 2 chocolate bars with that..._"


----------



## SARgirl

This video was sent to me the other day via email.  

I thought perhaps someone with more knowledge than I have about all of this could give some thoughts on this video.  My knowledge on this subject/situation is mostly from what I catch on Army.ca and the media, here and there.

I'm wondering if the English translations are correct, and if the information given in the video is correct?  

The mention of Obama's grey hair makes me wonder if this guy is serious or not, but perhaps that's something he's using to sell what he's saying.  

Also, at 0:40 surveys are shown- I'm wondering what it says?  The video shows the translation of what the man is saying, but it doesn't give the translation of the survey text shown on the screen behind him.

Is this just a Russian propaganda video?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S7zey2uWkH8


----------



## KerryBlue

SARgirl said:
			
		

> The mention of Obama's grey hair makes me wonder if this guy is serious or not, but perhaps that's something he's using to sell what he's saying.
> 
> Also, at 0:40 surveys are shown- I'm wondering what it says?  The video shows the translation of what the man is saying, but it doesn't give the translation of the survey text shown on the screen behind him.
> 
> Is this just a Russian propaganda video?
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S7zey2uWkH8



I'm very confused by this video, it seems to be Russian propaganda but it is posted by the Ukrainian Nationalist Maidan Group. 

The survey's shown are Presidential approval ratings, If I'm reading the Russian right. The video is without a doubt Russian propaganda and it is the kind of thing eastern Ukrainians as well as Russians see everyday.


----------



## 57Chevy

KerryBlue said:
			
		

> it seems to be Russian propaganda



BBC reported that Putin put him in charge of a new state-run news entity called Rossiya Segodnya, which translates as "Russia Today" 
---
The new agency is to be headed by Dmitry Kiselev, one of Russian TV's most notorious anchors, known for his extreme anti-Western and homophobic views.

Mr. Putin's decree states that Russia Today's role will be to transmit to foreign audiences information about the "Russian Federation's state policy and public life in Russia."

It seems likely, therefore, that it will complement the work of the state-funded foreign-language TV station, RT, which when it was launched in 2005 was also known as Russia Today.

The new agency will be a "huge machine for propaganda in the West"

Article from NewsBusters is shared with provisions of
The Copyright Act here:  Russian propaganda


----------



## vonGarvin

SARgirl said:
			
		

> This video was sent to me the other day via email.
> 
> I thought perhaps someone with more knowledge than I have about all of this could give some thoughts on this video.  My knowledge on this subject/situation is mostly from what I catch on Army.ca and the media, here and there.
> 
> I'm wondering if the English translations are correct, and if the information given in the video is correct?
> 
> The mention of Obama's grey hair makes me wonder if this guy is serious or not, but perhaps that's something he's using to sell what he's saying.
> 
> Also, at 0:40 surveys are shown- I'm wondering what it says?  The video shows the translation of what the man is saying, but it doesn't give the translation of the survey text shown on the screen behind him.
> 
> Is this just a Russian propaganda video?
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S7zey2uWkH8


From my limited Russian, the translations *appear* to be accurate.  I couldn't tell what exactly the surveys said (other than the names of Putin and Obama), but I believe it was the popularity of each in their respective countries.


----------



## SARgirl

Thank you all.


----------



## The Bread Guy

SARgirl said:
			
		

> This video was sent to me the other day via email.
> 
> I thought perhaps someone with more knowledge than I have about all of this could give some thoughts on this video.  My knowledge on this subject/situation is mostly from what I catch on Army.ca and the media, here and there.
> 
> (....)
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S7zey2uWkH8



Good catch - thanks for sharing.

I leave the translation to those who know Russian.  Based on a quick Google-fu over lunch of some of the terms used in the newscast (done by Rossia 1, one of the Russian-state-controlled networks), it appears to be a U.S.-bashing commentary by one of the staff - think a harsh Rex Murphy-ski commentary.  Here's some other analysis of the same video (caveat lector/consider the various sources):

"State TV says Russia could turn US to 'radioactive ash' " (MSM - Agence France-Presse)
" “We can turn the US to dust,” Russia says in 2014. “We will bury you,” the USSR said in 1956. They didn’t do it then, and they can’t do it now." (Euromaidan blog)
"Russia can turn US into 'radioactive ash': Russian journalist" (Iranian state media)
"Russia Openly Mocks Obama’s Attempt To Manage Crimea Crisis" (Before It's News page, a site who's second most popular story is "Lee Harvey Oswald Did Not Shoot President Kennedy")
A bit more background on how said "journalist" in question does his job ("to describe him as Russia’s Glenn Beck would be a major understatement")here.


			
				SARgirl said:
			
		

> Is this just a Russian propaganda video?


One man's "propaganda" is another man's "editorial comment" - at least one other Russian media outlet (in their own "editorial comment") has called the guy in the video "The Kremlin's New Chief Propagandist", so feel free to judge  ;D


----------



## SARgirl

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Good catch - thanks for sharing.


  
You're welcome.   

Thank you for the other information and links you posted in your reply as well.


----------



## KerryBlue

For those who do not know about Stephan Bandera, this article is a nice piece about why he his Putin's favourite scapegoat. 



> *Putin's Ghost Under the Bed*
> 
> 
> That Putin would view such a symbol as a threat should hardly come as a surprise. In his understanding of Russia and the Soviet Union, every attempt by Ukrainians to assert their independence amounts to a betrayal of Russia and Russians. According to Putin, "it pains our hearts to see what is happening in Ukraine at the moment, see the people's suffering and their uncertainty about how to get through today and what awaits them tomorrow. Our concerns are understandable because we are not simply close neighbors but, as I have said many times already, we are one people. Kiev is the mother of Russian cities. Ancient Rus is our common source and we cannot live without each other."
> 
> Like Bandera and his comrades, millions of Ukrainians today believe that they can live without Russia. In fact, they believe that Ukraine can live only without Russia. Ironically, Putin and his propaganda machine are only reinforcing that view. If his aggressive behavior and warmongering rhetoric continue, he may very well succeed in accomplishing what the nationalists failed to do -- uniting the vast majority of Ukrainians around an anti-Russian nationalist agenda



http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/03/20/ghosts_ukraine_stepan_bandera_putin_crimea



Edited for spelling


----------



## CougarKing

Major update on those last Ukrainian warships trapped in Crimea:



> From the Associated Press via another site
> 
> *Pro-Russian crowds seize 3 Ukrainian warships*
> 
> By JIM HEINTZ and DAVID RISING, Associated Press
> 
> Updated 2:08 pm, Thursday, March 20, 2014
> 
> KIEV, Ukraine (AP) — Pro-Russian forces seized three Ukrainian warships Thursday and Ukraine said its troops were being threatened in Crimea as the U.S. announced a new round of sanctions against Russia for its annexation of the Black Sea peninsula.
> 
> Tensions in the region remained high despite the release of a Ukrainian naval commander held by pro-Russian forces.
> 
> *Shots were fired but there were no casualties as the Ukrainian corvette Khmelnitsky was seized in Sevastopol, according to an AP photographer at the scene. Another ship, the Lutsk, was also surrounded by pro-Russian forces. An AP photographer later saw Ukrainian servicemen disembarking a third ship, the Ternopil corvette.*
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## a_majoor

An interesting example of how some people are totally disconnected from what is going on in the world:



> ​Support Conscience Canada's Peace Tax Return Campaign
> 
> Dear Ceasefire.ca supporter,
> 
> I believe that peace groups need to work together, so I want to introduce you to a group I have admired for many years: Conscience Canada.
> 
> Visit their site and see how your tax dollars are used for war, then sign up to participate in their “Peace Tax Return” campaign: http://consciencecanada.ca/ceasefire/
> 
> Conscience Canada is a group of people who want to know that all the funds that we, as citizens, turn over to government will be used only for peaceful purposes.
> 
> I am concerned about this, too. Canada is spending $19.047 billion each year -- we are the 6th largest military spender among the 28 nations of NATO.
> 
> According to Conscience Canada, the Department of National Defence now accounts for 8.3% of total federal government spending.
> 
> Just think what we could do with even a small portion of those dollars -- better health care, job training, accessible education, more public transit, and advances in renewable energy.
> 
> Instead, we get over-priced stealth fighters, attack drones, and broken, useless submarines.
> 
> Join me and Conscience Canada in working to promote peace, and stop paying for war. Sign up for their campaign to learn how: www.consciencecanada.ca/ceasefire
> 
> Thanks for everything you do for peace.



Perhaps we should donate enough to hook their office up with CBC Newsworld... >


----------



## The Bread Guy

KerryBlue said:
			
		

> For those who do not know about Stephan Bandera, this article is a niece piece about why he his Putin's favourite scapegoat.
> 
> http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/03/20/ghosts_ukraine_stepan_bandera_putin_crimea


Good one - and if an alleged former Soviet int officer and his research into old archives are to be believed, Putin's dad may have worked for the Nazis in the WW2 (for a while, anyway, until they switched sides), too.





More here (in Ukrainian) and here, and "Vlasov's Army" (aka "Russian Liberation Army") here and (with usual Wikipedia GIGO caveats) here.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Just spotted these tidbits from the Ukrainian Info-machine - enjoy!

Via the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), the "Ukraine under attack" page with PDF newsletters - latest one here
also via the MFA, the StopFake.org page, aiming to deal with what's coming out of the Russian Info-machine (URL registered to a Ukrainian URL-holding company, IP appears to be linked to Google) - English version here, Russian version here

Also, what used to be a web cam looking at the entrance of a Ukrainian base in Crimea appears to have frozen at 1:50am - new management, maybe?


----------



## dimsum

Thucydides said:
			
		

> An interesting example of how some people are totally disconnected from what is going on in the world:
> 
> Perhaps we should donate enough to hook their office up with CBC Newsworld... >



I'm sure their "Peace Tax Return" won't raise any flags at all with CRA.  

I would like to know where our "attack drones" are....ya know, as a concerned citizen and all that.


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Also, what used to be a web cam looking at the entrance of a Ukrainian base in Crimea appears to have frozen at 1:50am - new management, maybe?


As of this post, web cam feed "unstuck", with facility shown looking like it's still under Ukrainian management.


----------



## KerryBlue

While there has been no media coverage since the 19th about the Hostages(including a Ukrainian Navy Commander) :blotto: taken when pro-Russian forces stormed a Ukrainian military base per;

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/19/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/

There have been some updates via a Ukrainian Human Rights centre.



> *Crimean hostages put in an electric chair, beaten, shot at*
> 
> Most of the hostages released on March 20 were subjected to torture while held in captivity by members of the so-called "Crimean security service"
> 
> Shchekun was beaten and may have fractured ribs, an x-ray has been taken in the Kherson hospital where he is now receiving treatment. Serhiy Kovalsky says that his torturers were interested in two things - Shchekun’s possible links with Pravy Sector and his sources of financing.



More at links below 

http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1395363214
http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1395310681


----------



## Kirkhill

My Bias: Ukraine Good.  Russia Bad.

That said.  I now don't believe a word I see anywhere from anyone about anything about events in Ukraine.

I am trying to read the ripples in the neighbouring states to determine their level of concern.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> That said.  I now don't believe a word I see anywhere from anyone about anything about events in Ukraine.


I still find it interesting as a "he says, she says" exercise.

For anyone who has time, try this compare-and-contrast case study between the UN Sec-Gen's speech in Russia, UN Info-machine coverage of the meeting here, Russian media coverage here and here and MSM here and  here.  Expect a similar mix/range of results from the SG's visit to Ukraine today.  You'll learn quickly why lots of people here say, "don't just trust JUST one source".  



			
				KerryBlue said:
			
		

> While there has been no media coverage since the 19th about the Hostages(including a Ukrainian Navy Commander) :blotto: taken when pro-Russian forces stormed a Ukrainian military base per;
> 
> http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/19/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/


There was some MSM coverage of his release, as well as Ukrainian MoD confirming he'd been released (Ukrainian), and the Russian MoD said they asked Crimean authorities to let the guy out (Russian).


----------



## KerryBlue

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> There was



Jesus, I don't know how I missed all that.....


----------



## The Bread Guy

SARgirl said:
			
		

> Is this just a Russian propaganda video?
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S7zey2uWkH8


An update:  the EU's latest list o' sanction targets includes the guy speaking in this piece, described as a "Central figure of the government propaganda supporting the deployment of Russian forces in Ukraine".

Again, feel free to judge  ;D


----------



## The Bread Guy

KerryBlue said:
			
		

> Jesus, I don't know how I missed all that.....


There's no shortage of stuff coming out of the news fire hose in general, so missing this may not be surprising.

Also, with Slavic names transliterated from Cyrillic, I find there's often more than one way to spell someone's name in Roman alphabet, making it hard to find sometimes.


----------



## KerryBlue

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> There's no shortage of stuff coming out of the news fire hose in general, so missing this may not be surprising.
> 
> Also, with Slavic names transliterated from Cyrillic, I find there's often more than one way to spell someone's name in Roman alphabet, making it hard to find sometimes.



The Ukrainian stuff, and to a certain extent Russian language stuff coming out is not to much of a problem for me being Ukrainian. Most of what I actually find comes from my facebook, where the vast majority of my friends who are Ukrainian share different articles from various areas. Vice News Channel has also been doing a great series called *Russian Roulette: The Invasion of Ukraine* I'ts pretty interesting and heavy stuff. The latest dispatch, Number 16 can be found here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_fzoZww-9g&list=PLw613M86o5o7DfgzuUCd_PVwbOCDO472B


----------



## CombatMacguyver

Thucydides said:
			
		

> An interesting example of how some people are totally disconnected from what is going on in the world:
> 
> Perhaps we should donate enough to hook their office up with CBC Newsworld... >



If people get to "opt out" of the military funding portion of their taxes I want to opt out of Health Care, Equalization Payments, Subsidized Day Care (yes I have children), and a myriad of other things I'll suddenly, and conveniently, "cconscientiously object" to.


----------



## CougarKing

Or so Moscow says...

Military.com



> *Russia: No Military Moves Planned Against Ukraine*
> 
> WASHINGTON -- Russia's defense chief assured Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel on Thursday that Russian forces along Ukraine's eastern border have no intention of crossing into Ukrainian territory.
> 
> A Pentagon spokesman, Navy Rear Adm. John Kirby, said Hagel discussed Ukraine with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in an hour-long phone conversation.
> 
> "Secretary Hagel appreciated Minister Shoigu's time and the minister's assurance that the troops he has arrayed along the border are there to conduct exercises only, that they had no intention of crossing the border into Ukraine and that they would take no aggressive action," Kirby said.
> 
> (..EDITED)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Progress (of a sort):  they're being _"asked"_ this time ....


> *Ukraine's breakaway region of Crimea will ask Tatars to vacate part of the land where they now live in exchange for new territory elsewhere in the region, a top Crimean government official has said.*
> Crimean Deputy Prime Minister Rustam Temirgaliyev said Tuesday that the new government in Crimea, where residents voted Sunday to become part of Russia, wants to regularize the land unofficially taken over by Crimean Tatar squatters following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
> 
> "We have asked the Crimean Tatars to vacate part of their land, which is required for social needs," Temirgaliyev said. "But we are ready to allocate and legalize many other plots of land to ensure a normal life for the Crimean Tatars," he said.
> 
> Temirgaliyev emphasized that members of the Tatar community could receive senior political positions in the new government, in an apparent move to ease ethnic tensions in the region.
> 
> "I think that Crimean Tatars will be well represented in the government and parliament," he said.
> 
> The Crimean Tatars, a historic people of the region, were deported en masse to Central Asia by Soviet leader Joseph Stalin 70 years ago. Although many of them returned in the early 1990s, they were unable to reclaim the land they had possessed before their deportation.
> 
> Many Crimean Tatars have taken over unclaimed land as squatters by building houses, farms and mosques. Ukrainian authorities have in the past failed to settle the land disputes ....


_Moscow Times_, 20 Mar 14


----------



## The Bread Guy

Via Twitter here and here, a bit of compare & contrast of kit....


----------



## KerryBlue

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Via Twitter here and here, a bit of compare & contrast of kit....




Sorry maybe I'm missing it because it's so obvious but is it that they are super similar or dissimilar....


----------



## The Bread Guy

KerryBlue said:
			
		

> Sorry maybe I'm missing it because it's so obvious but is it that they are super similar or dissimilar....


Yes  >

Seriously, to my old, jaded eye, they look kinda-sorta close, but as someone else said, maybe that was the only kit left at the Crimean Ukrainian Tire stores.


----------



## KerryBlue

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Crimean Ukrainian Tire stores.



Considering the Ukrainian military for the most part is using leftover soviet stuff from the 80's and 90's that stuff looks a little to high end to just be found in a surplus store in Crimea. 
Vice did a recent piece on the Ukrainian National Guard. Looking at what they are issued the Crimean self defence force looks much better equpied then the Ukrainian Army
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_fzoZww-9g&list=PLw613M86o5o7DfgzuUCd_PVwbOCDO472B


----------



## CougarKing

KerryBlue said:
			
		

> Considering the Ukrainian military for the most part is using leftover soviet stuff from the 80's and 90's that stuff looks a little to high end to just be found in a surplus store in Crimea.
> Vice did a recent piece on the Ukrainian National Guard. Looking at what they are issued the Crimean self defence force looks much better equpied then the Ukrainian Army
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_fzoZww-9g&list=PLw613M86o5o7DfgzuUCd_PVwbOCDO472B



Kerry,

You should take a look at what I posted earlier, in another thread about Ukrainian military surplus being of interest to China.


----------



## KerryBlue

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> Kerry,
> 
> You should take a look at what I posted about Ukrainian military surplus being of interest to China.



Granted their military industrial complex left over from the Soviets is probably huge, but the equipment being used by this so called "self defence force" which is entirely made up of regular civilians who purchased surplus gear is using more modern Russian looking equipment then Ukrainian or Soviet era. I.e the digital camo, of which I believe only Ukrainian special forces use and even then they use western looking multi-cam.


----------



## midget-boyd91

Turned on the webcam that shows live footage of one of the gates at a base to watch for a few minutes.. appears to have been some sort of commotion resulting in a number of members running out through the gate over to where a crowd soon gathered..

Also: A wiener dog tried to jump up into the open door of a truck blocking the gate and fell flat on its ass. I laughed. Hard.


----------



## midget-boyd91

The camera was just hit by something, but is still active, and there is now an armoured vehicle at the gate looking like its going to break through.. for anyone interested...

http://belbek62.com.ua/online-translyacii/

Edit: A few minutes after the gate was broken down and an ambulance rushed in, the camera was taken down.


----------



## CougarKing

There's only so much you can do, especially with the sequestrations. 

*Pentagon proposes cuts on military aid to Ukraine*



> The Obama administration proposed a 28% spending cut for a Pentagon program that supports modernizing the military of Ukraine and other former Soviet Union republics, Pentagon budget records show. The move could endanger efforts to boost Ukraine's armed forces as they face threats from Russia.
> (...EDITED)



link source: USA Today site.


----------



## The Bread Guy

uncle-midget-Oddball said:
			
		

> The camera was just hit by something, but is still active, and there is now an armoured vehicle at the gate looking like its going to break through.. for anyone interested...
> 
> http://belbek62.com.ua/online-translyacii/
> 
> Edit: A few minutes after the gate was broken down and an ambulance rushed in, the camera was taken down.


Yup, it appears Belbek's no longer under Ukrainian management - some YouTube video snippets of the BTR-80'ish running the gate here (providing some lessons learned to anyone considering setting up a roadblock in a similar situation).

Another tidbit:  Former Ukrainian paras appear to be getting called up for a "partial mobilization" (Ukrainian version - Google English version).

Also, Ukraine's MoD has issued ANOTHER statement (Ukrainian - Google English) telling Ukrainian troops in Crimea (presumably, contrary to what Russian self-defence forces are saying) that, 1)  they won't be considered traitors if they return to the mainland, and 2)  they'll be moved to other bases, with housing to be provided for their families.

Finally, a bit of a political face-off on the Ukrainian horizon?

_"*Several hundred people gathered in front of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense in Kyiv on March 22 to demand that Defense Minister Ihor Tenyuk* give clear and consistent orders to the 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers in Crimea* and insisted that the government not leave them without support ...."_
_"*Acting President of Ukraine, Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov ** said that information about absence of clear instructions to military men in Crimea from authorities is not true* ...."_
_"*Tymoshenko initiates creation of operative HQ for reaction to military aggression of Russia* -- Leader of the Batkivshchyna party, ex Prime Minister of Ukraine *Yulia Tymoshenko**** held a meeting with specialists of defense and military areas, and offers to create a permanent headquarters, which will elaborate decisions for reaction to threats, which Ukraine faces due to the military aggression of Russia. ...."_

* - One of only a handful of members of the right-wing/nationalist Svoboda party in cabinet.
** - Member of the (for now) ruling Fatherland party.
*** - _Leader_ of the Fatherland party, back in the game after back treatments in Germany.


----------



## CougarKing

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> And Moldova responds
> 
> Government of Moldova says Crimea referendum is illegal
> 
> Tiraspol is 100 km NW of Odessa.
> 
> Given that "Russian" forces have already jumped the choke points out of Crimea (troops at Strilkove and Chonhar on the eastern exits and at Armyansk on the western exit) I'm watching for Novooleksiivka and Antonivka to show up in the news shortly.
> 
> I believe Odessa is the prize.



And speaking of Moldova, the Transdniesterian region and Odessa:

REUTERS



> *NATO commander warns of Russian threat to separatist Moldova region*
> 
> Reuters
> By Adrian Croft
> 
> BRUSSELS (Reuters) - *NATO's top military commander said on Sunday that Russia had a large force on Ukraine's eastern border and he was worried it could pose a threat to Moldova's separatist Transdniestria region.
> 
> The warning comes a day after Russian troops, using armored vehicles, automatic weapons and stun grenades, seized the last military facilities under Ukrainian control in Crimea, the Black Sea peninsular that Russian President Vladimir Putin formally annexed on Friday.*
> 
> "The (Russian) force that is at the Ukrainian border now to the east is very, very sizeable and very, very ready," NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove, told an event held by the German Marshall Fund think-tank.
> 
> Russia's seizure of Crimea, which has a majority Russian population, after the ousting of Ukraine's pro-Russian president by mass protests has triggered the worst East-West crisis since the Cold War.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## Edward Campbell

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> And speaking of Moldova, the Transdniesterian region and Odessa:
> 
> REUTERS




My comments are here.


----------



## Kirkhill

Moldovan News Integrator here


----------



## Kirkhill

Equivalent site for Georgia here


----------



## Kirkhill

Putin has essentially screwed the pooch on this one.

He has demonstrated that it is not worth negotiating with him.  He is going to do what he wants to do regardless of what anyone else does.

In consequence he has tightened the perimeter around Russia.

Next problem.

What will be the response when the noose starts to bite?


----------



## KerryBlue

This wasn't posted anywhere on here so thought I'd share



> * Russian Navy Takes Over Ukrainian Sub In Crimea*
> 
> The Russian Navy said Saturday that it took over Ukraine’s only submarine, based in Sevastopol, Crimea.
> 
> It is now part of Russia’s historic Black Sea Fleet and brings the number of Russian subs stationed in the Crimean peninsula to four.
> 
> Captain Anatoly Varochkin, the commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet’s submarine unit, told RIA Novosti that half of the Zaporizhzhia’s crew, including the sub’s captain, left for Ukraine while the remainder of the vessel’s crew will reportedly serve the Russian navy.  Law enforcement authorities in Crimea have released from duties Sergei Gaiduk, the commander of the Ukrainian navy, along with seven others detained Wednesday in the Crimean city of Sevastopol, the KrymInform news agency reported Thursday.



http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2014/03/22/russian-navy-takes-over-ukrainian-sub-in-crimea/


I find it very odd this whole situation regarding the sub. The sub itself is quite old and outdated, besides taking it for the sole reason of saying you can't have this there is no real reason for the Russians to take it..


----------



## GAP

to lighten things up.....


----------



## The Bread Guy

It's official - let the withdrawal begin ....


> *The National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (NSDC) has instructed the Defense Ministry to redeploy military units stationed in Crimea, Acting Ukrainian President and Verkhovna Rada Chairman Oleksandr Turchynov has said.*  “The National Security and Defense Council has made the decision regarding the instruction to the Defense Ministry to conduct the redeployment of military units that are in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea,” Turchynov said at a meeting of the conciliatory council of the heads of parliamentary factions and committees.  He said that the National Security and Defense Council had ordered the Cabinet of Ministers to evacuate the families of servicemen ….



Meanwhile, on the Odessa front (Ukrainian media) ....


> The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) detained in Odesa on March a sabotage group of four men armed with AKS-7.62 assault rifles and pistols.
> 
> "The leader of the group, observing the measures of secrecy, was in contact with representatives of the Russian special services in Crimea," the SBU's press center reported on Saturday.
> 
> According to the report, the group planned to carry out an armed attack on a military unit stationed in Odesa region and take possession of firearms. Attackers also planned to involve in illegal activities up to a hundred trained individuals with experience of military service or participation in hostilities.
> 
> "The main goal of the saboteurs was to destabilize the socio-political situation in Odesa region and organize separatist mass disorder," the report says.
> 
> "In order to draw a wide response during mass rallies they planned to seize administrative buildings, commit violence against civilians and resist representatives of the authorities with the use of weapons and explosives," the SBU's press center reported.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Tit for tat from Russia - this, from state-funded RT Online (party colour highlighting mine):


> Moscow has imposed sanctions on Canada in response to sanctions that Ottawa earlier introduced against some Russian officials in connection with the situation in Ukraine, the Russian Foreign Ministry has said.
> 
> “This step comes in response to unacceptable actions by the Canadian side which seriously hurt bilateral relations,” the Ministry's spokesman, Aleksandr Lukashevich, said.
> 
> The sanctions were slapped on 13 high-ranking Canadian officials, lawmakers and public activists.
> 
> Russia, however, remains open for constructive and honest cooperation with Canada, which was notable for its pragmatism and a large area of mutual interests, particularly regarding Arctic region issues, Lukashevich said.
> 
> “But we need this cooperation as much as Ottawa does. That said, we make no secret that we will react accordingly to unfriendly moves – no matter what motives they are explained by. We hope that Canadian officials and politicians will draw adequate conclusions,” the diplomat added.
> 
> Moscow “regrets” that Ottawa ignored the free declaration of the will of the people in Crimea, the overwhelming majority of whom decided in favor of reunion with Russia at the March 17 referendum, Lukashevich said. He underlined that the voting was held “in full accordance with international law and the UN Charter.” But Canada chose to support current “illegitimate regime in Kiev.”
> 
> The list of the Canadian citizens who are banned from entering the territory of the Russian Federation was published Monday on the Foreign Ministry’s website. It includes:
> 
> 1. *Christine Hogan* – foreign affairs and defense policy adviser to the Prime Minister
> 
> 2. *Wayne G.Wouters* - Clerk of the Privy Council and Secretary to the Cabinet
> 
> 3. *Jean-Francois Tremblay* – Deputy Secretary to the Cabinet
> 
> 4. *Andrew Sheer* – House of Commons Speaker
> 
> 5. *Peter Van Loan* - faction leader of the Conservative Party in the House of Commons
> 
> 6. *Raynell Andreychuk* – the chairwoman of the Senate’s committee on Foreign Affairs and International Trade
> 
> 7. *Dean Allison* – the chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Development, House of Commons
> 
> 8. *Paul Dewar* – deputy chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Development, House of Commons
> 
> 9. *Irwin Cotler* – vice-chairman of the Subcommittee on International Human Rights of the Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Development, House of Commons
> 
> 10. *Ted Opitz* – Conservative MP
> 
> 11. *Christia Freeland* – Liberal MP
> 
> 12. *James Bezan* – Conservaite MP
> 
> 13. *Paul Grod* – President of the Ukrainian Canadian Congress ....


----------



## Journeyman

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Tit for tat from Russia:


It looks like they were having a tough time coming up with 13 significant, relevant Canadians to 'punish'   ;D


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Meanwhile, on the Odessa front (Ukrainian media) ....


If you can read Ukrainian, here's the news release straight from the UKR int svc's info-machine.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Journeyman said:
			
		

> It looks like they were having a tough time coming up with 13 significant, relevant Canadians to 'punish'   ;D


Do you think there's anybody saying, "hey, why wasn't *I* important enough to end up on that list?!?"  >


----------



## KerryBlue

Journeyman said:
			
		

> It looks like they were having a tough time coming up with 13 significant, relevant Canadians to 'punish'   ;D



Paul Grod is a pretty significant figure in the Ukrainian Canadian community. He has met with the PM, Foreign Affairs minister and spent a large chunk of his time in Ukraine with the new temporary government, and during the Maidan. Ted Optiz and James Bezan also just returned from a trip to Ukraine to meet with the new government....So it kinda makes sense, not the biggest names in the game but better then nothing.


----------



## Bird_Gunner45

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Tit for tat from Russia - this, from state-funded RT Online (party colour highlighting mine):



Too bad we couldn't ban Christia Freeland from Canada... maybe the Russians are on to something  ;D


----------



## Edward Campbell

Bird_Gunner45 said:
			
		

> Too bad we couldn't ban Christia Freeland from Canada... maybe the Russians are on to something  ;D




 :hellyeah:

Milpoints inbound for making me   :rofl:


----------



## Edward Campbell

And, according to a report in the _Globe and Mail_, the G8 is, _de facto_, dead, at least for now.

The G7 leaders have cancelled the proposed G8 meeting in Sochi and have, instead, scheduled a G7 meeting for Brussels.

The article says, "The G7, which announced the measures after an emergency meeting on the sidelines of a nuclear security summit in The Hague, stopped short of formally expelling Russia from the G8." But it's a substantial foreign policy win for Prime Minister Harper because I suspect it was done over the objections of the USA (who want Russia "in," despite the fact that they were never _qualified_ in any sane way), France and Germany.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Here, from the _Globe and Mail_ website, is a _Reuters_ Video Report on sanctions which actually are working.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Ukrainian defence ministers, change - ROUND!


> In a day of accusations and recriminations over Ukraine's inability to repel Russia militarily from the Crimean peninsula, parliament on March 25 voted to replace its defense minister.
> 
> Lawmakers named Colonel-General Mykhailo Koval, 58, as the new acting defense minister with 251 out of 450 votes.
> 
> While adressing the deputies, Koval said he understands his responsibility and said that "he believes in the armed forces of Ukraine." Koval, who previously headed the special group of the State Border Service on the situation in Crimea, was kidnapped on March 5 near Yalta by Russian troops. He was surrounded by a group of 40 armed people, but released later in the day.
> 
> Koval, who holds the rank of colonel general of Ukraine's border guard troops, was born in the town of Iziaslav on Feb. 26, 1956.
> 
> Koval's appointment came after the Verkhovna Rada accepted the resignation of interim Defense Minister Ihor Tenyukh, who has been under fire for the military's slow response to the Russian invasion. Before the vote, Tenyukh talked about war-time preparations. "We prepared nine military units in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast to accommodate the militants and I need to stress that all Ukrainian troops will be redeployed to the mainland" and that the army is on full alert now and the mobilization campaign continues.
> 
> But Tenyukh's resignation was backed by 228 votes, a majority in the 450-seat parliament.
> 
> The change is just one sign that Ukraine's leaders are struggling in their response to Russia's annexation of the Crimean peninsula and the possible broader military invasion of the Ukrainian mainland.
> 
> Ukraine's interim President Oleksandr Turchynov called Russia's annexation of the nation's Crimean peninsula "our general tragedy."
> 
> Vitali Klitschko, the leader of Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reforms party, said that all officials who can't do their jobs should be fired ....


----------



## CombatMacguyver

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> (who want Russia "in," despite the fact that they were never _qualified_ in any sane way)



As far I know Canada only got into the G6 club at the instistence of the Americans, who were weary of another European dominated organization.  

Nevermind the fact the G8 no longer represents "the worlds richest nations" or the worlds "most industrialized nations".  Brazil and India passed Canada a long time ago.  

But yea, digression from the topic at hand.  Mac out


----------



## a_majoor

An analysis from "The American Interest". While it is too early to say if this Administration is willing to do anything concrete, I think the author has identified a key issue: the role of Poland in this new security environment. I strongly suspect that Poland, being the largest and best organized of the Eastern European nations, may become the core of an "Eastern European" block. The Poles look suspiciously both East and West, they don't want to be dominated by Russia again, but also don't want to fall into the orbit or influence of Germany either. While leaving NATO or the EU is not a realistic option, the Poles could still create an informal regional block within the EU to advance their interests:

http://www.the-american-interest.com/articles/2014/03/24/doubling-down-on-nato/



> *Doubling Down On NATO*
> Andrew A. Michta
> 
> The United States needs to respond to Moscow’s partition of Ukraine. Redeploying NATO forces in Eastern and Central Europe would be a good first step to a comprehensive deterrence strategy.
> 
> Published on March 24, 2014
> 
> Just a few months ago the overwhelming majority of Western politicians and pundits thought a Russian military move into Ukraine inconceivable.  And yet thus far, Vladimir Putin’s determination to restore Russia’s imperial prerogative in Europe’s East has been met with only limited economic and banking sanctions, visa denial to a handful of Russian officials, and plenty of statements condemning Russia for its “nineteenth century behavior” at a time when liberal norms and postmodern standards are supposed to rule supreme.  As Russia moved swiftly to reconfigure Europe’s East, the United States was left gasping for air. Instead of developing a strategy we have been arguing about conditions for negotiations, allowing Moscow to continue to try to make linkages to the Iran nuclear arms issue, cooperation over Syria, Afghanistan withdrawal and nuclear arms control.  This needs to change.
> 
> The U.S. administration and European governments should set aside their expressions of righteous anger and respond to the new environment along NATO’s periphery.  Geopolitics is back in Europe in force, and it should be clear that earlier assumptions about Central Europe being somehow “done” after the Cold War have been shown to be not much more than the gaseous byproduct of inside-the-beltway punditry rather than a reflection of power realities on the ground.  Nowhere has the tectonic shift been felt more acutely than in Poland and the Baltic States—NATO’s frontier states in facing the hardening periphery of Russia.
> 
> In the aftermath of Russia’s partition of Ukraine, the principal U.S. strategic objective in North-Central Europe should be to increase the costs of any future Russian expansionism.  This requires two types of action: first, reassurance through political means; second, increased direct U.S. assistance to ensure that the region can credibly deter Russia’s military pressure, and, if need be, defend itself and inflict serious pain on the aggressor.  These two are interconnected and mutually reinforcing.  Political reassurance without a credible military component will not suffice.  Without an enhanced viable military strategy along NATO’s northeastern periphery, the credibility of the alliance will be forfeited over time. Russia knows this. Its parallel goal of rebuilding its empire has been to undermine NATO.
> 
> Putin is closely watching how Washington behaves in the coming weeks in order to determine the extent of America’s will to maintain NATO as a force to be reckoned with.  On the political side of the ledger, the steps taken thus far have been positive. The prompt dispatch of additional F-15s to the Baltic air policing mission in Lithuania, plus the 12 F-16 jets and 300 personnel deployed to Poland have provided immediate symbolic reassurance. Vice President Biden’s visit further underscored the fact that America was re-engaging with Europe, refocusing on the core transatlantic security relationship after years of “resets” and “pivots.” The message to Putin is clear: while our response to the partition of Ukraine has lagged, the U.S. remains committed to NATO.  So far so good.
> 
> But Washington still needs to do some deeper thinking on how it has provided for the security of Central Europe and the Baltics up until now, and how this needs to change going forward.  Simply put, now is the time to put real U.S. military assets into North-Central Europe and to focus on helping those allies improve their defense capabilities against Russia.  The strategy should be to help the countries in the region to leverage their own effort in combination with U.S. assets and assistance.  For starters, the Administration needs to make clear that if there was ever any implied or explicit understanding that NATO military assets would not be deployed on the new allies’ territory, Putin’s partition of Ukraine has nullified that.  The U.S. needs to expand its presence on the ground in Central Europe to send a clear message to Vladimir Putin that NATO’s defensive perimeter has not been compromised by his action in the East.
> 
> The starting point of any future engagement with Moscow should be the following: Russia’s partition of Ukraine has transformed the security landscape in East Europe, posing a direct challenge to the transatlantic security system. While efforts to ease tensions with Russia should continue, the West needs to understand that, unless checked, Putin will stay the course of his neo-imperial drive.  His actions in Crimea have already undermined any residual trust in the region’s relations with Russia, nullifying the prospect of a rapid settlement of the Ukrainian crisis.  Putin is in this for the long haul, and at present NATO remains the only viable vehicle for anticipating contingencies and preparing to respond should Russian aggression in the region resume.  We should avoid the temptation to engage in another round of spurious debate about whether Europe should provide its own defenses; the European Union is not set up to address hard security issues, regardless of how many claims to the contrary have been made since the Balkan wars.
> 
> The focal point of U.S. assistance in the region should be Poland, a midsize power and lynchpin of regional security.  The initial steps are straightforward: the temporary transfer of U.S. F-16s should become permanent so long as the threat persists, and it should be expanded further with additional aircraft and personnel.  The Obama administration should move ground assets to Poland—preferably a brigade–size force to strengthen near-term deterrence.  Most importantly, however, the focus should be on assisting Poland in accelerating and expanding its own military modernization programs currently underway.
> 
> The Polish government has demonstrated its commitment to addressing the country’s vulnerabilities, including an Air and Missile Defense (AMD) program, naval modernization, helicopter tenders and additional armor.  The Obama administration can help Poland by facilitating defense industrial cooperation and accelerating licensing for weapons purchases. It should ask Congress to move forward quickly to release the extended range Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile system (JASSM) to sell to Poland.  There is a precedent for such a sale in the region, as Finland was allowed to purchase the JASSM, even though it is not a NATO country.  Finding a solution that includes long-term defense industrial cooperation with Poland’s partners ought to be measured against the requirement to field a working AMD system to shorten the deployment cycle. To put it differently: the United States should assist Poland in getting modern proven equipment into the field fast.
> 
> The United States remains the key player to forming workable strategy in North-Central Europe post-Crimea, and NATO is the ideal vehicle for getting the Europeans on the same page.  The Obama administration needs to make clear that regardless of how quickly and how far Putin pushes, whether in Ukraine or along Russia’s periphery in Europe and Central Asia, the United States will lead Europe toward developing a counter-strategy.  We must be prepared to move proactively to enhance not just defense, but also deterrence in the region.
> 
> Andrew A. Michta is the M.W. Buckman Professor of International Studies at Rhodes College and a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).


----------



## Kirkhill

I get a sense that an Eastern Association is starting to crystallize.

Poland is reaching out to Lithuania and Ukraine in a tri-national brigade.

Romania has reached out to Moldova, Georgia and Albania to ink various economic,  political and friendship agreements.

The Czech Republic has supplied military flights to exfiltrate Ukrainian injured to Czech hospitals.

Those folks aren't waiting around to see what Washington and London will do.  

(Right now I'm betting they are thinking fondly of those nasty interventionists Bush and Blair  - Ah for the good old days of BMD and Divisional exercises in Poland).


----------



## The Bread Guy

Back inside Ukraine, yet ANOTHER militia coming together ....


> Veterans initiate creation of power structures in Ukraine Special Forces "Hort" to assist the State to defend the territorial integrity of the country and maintain order.
> 
> "We announce the formation of Special Forces" Hort "- a professional organization established on the basis of social organization" Coordination Center of Public Security of Ukraine ", Association of Veterans of Ukrainian special forces of the Public Security of Ukraine", - said the head of "Public Security Coordination Centre of Ukraine" on Paul Pataretsky press conference in Kiev on Tuesday.
> 
> According to him, the organization works on a voluntary basis, and aims to help ensure the integrity of Ukraine, the safety of its citizens and the protection of the domestic legal order.
> 
> (....)
> 
> the commander of the special forces of Ukraine "Berkut" Kiev until 2005 Gennady Abramchuk noted that in the special forces "Hort" will including veterans of "Berkut", but only those who do not "stained" themselves ....


Interfax Ukraine, 25 Mar 14 (Russian - Google English)


----------



## Kirkhill

From Bulgarian news service Novinite





> *Ukrainian Far-Right Leader Killed*
> 
> Oleksandr Muzychko, a Ukrainian ultra-nationalist leader, died after a special forces operation.
> 
> Officials announced Tuesday that Muzychko, alsko known as Sashko Bily, was shot dead in a cafe in the town of Rivne, Western Ukraine, the BBC has reported.
> 
> He was a leader of the Right Sector, a far-right group which actively took part in anti-government protests and gave ground to claims of violence, fascism and anti-Semitism voiced by those opposing shift of power in the country.
> 
> Moscow is among the staunchest critics of the organization, seeing it as posing threat to Ukraine's large ethnic Russian minority. Interior Ministry officials explained Muzychko died short after police launched the raid to arrest him and other ultra-nationalists in the cafe. He opened fire at security forces and tried to flee.
> 
> "Sashko Bily" and his fellow far-right members were described as a "criminal gang" by Ukrainian authorities.
> 
> Rivne's Right Sector structures have vowed revenge, issuing threats to Interior Minister Arsen Avakov.
> 
> A Ukrainian MP has however presented another version of events, declaring no police operation had been carried out, and Muzychko was dragged into a car, his body being found later on.Website Lenta.ru, citing earlier reports, suggested Muzychko was killed near his home.
> 
> Apart from Ukraine, which earlier condemned acts committed by Muzychko, Moscow had issued an arrest warrant for him over atrocities against Russian soldiers in Chechnya in the 1990s.
> 
> Meanwhile, in Ukraine's capital Kiev, a cabinet reshuffle took place on Tuesday, as Parliament accepted the resignation of Defense Minister Ihor Tenyukh. Tenyukh leaves the goverment after being accused of mishandling Russia's threat to Ukraine posed by the military takeover of Crimea. He offered to leave voluntarily, but Parliament firstly declined his request.
> 
> Gen Mykhaylo Koval, who has served in Ukraine's Border Service, has now taken his portfolio.
> 
> - See more at: http://www.novinite.com/articles/159233/Ukrainian+Far-Right+Leader+Killed#sthash.q149XEFF.dpuf


----------



## The Bread Guy

And elsewhere in the neighbourhood ....


> Russia's military staged training exercises on Tuesday in Transdniestria, a breakaway sliver of Moldova that is a focus of tension following Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region.
> 
> NATO's top military commander said on Sunday he was worried that Russia might have its eye on Transdniestria, a largely Russian-speaking region that borders western Ukraine, after seizing Crimea, which has a narrow ethnic Russian majority.
> 
> The Interfax news agency quoted a spokesman for Russia's Western Military District, Colonel Oleg Kochetkov, as saying that Russian forces stationed in Transdniestria had "conducted an anti-terrorism drill and practiced operations to rebuff an attack on their military base".
> 
> Transdniestria, with a population of half a million, has run its own affairs since 1992 after fighting a brief war against the Moldovan government over fears that it might join Romania after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and Russia has a permanent garrison of peacekeepers there.
> 
> Russia has held several military drills during months of political upheaval in Ukraine. Some have brought large Russian forces close to Ukraine's eastern border, adding to concerns of an invasion after President Vladimir Putin secured permission from parliament to send in troops to protect Russians if needed ....


Reuters, 25 Mar 14

If your Russian is good, here's the Russian Info-machine's version of the exercise (as well as a clunky English translation here):  here's the Info-machine's photo, too





The blue bands on the helmets appear to indicate the Russians' self-proclaimed status as "peacekeeping troops" in the area.


----------



## KerryBlue

Watching some Vice Documentaries today, and I saw this...





It appears to be a Canadian Forces Extreme Cold Weather Parka, even has the maple leaf still on the Left shoulder. Not really news or anything, just interesting to see where old surplus gear can turn up in the world. Or maybe this is the western intervention pro-Russian continue to talk about...... >


----------



## George Wallace

KerryBlue said:
			
		

> Watching some Vice Documentaries today, and I saw this...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It appears to be a Canadian Forces Extreme Cold Weather Parka, even has the maple leaf still on the Left shoulder. Not really news or anything, just interesting to see where old surplus gear can turn up in the world. Or maybe this is the western intervention pro-Russian continue to talk about...... >



Or it is a Canadian Journalist freelancing in Ukraine, who just happened to have purchased the parka at a Surplus Store.


----------



## KerryBlue

George Wallace said:
			
		

> Or it is a Canadian Journalist freelancing in Ukraine, who just happened to have purchased the parka at a Surplus Store.



From the video, no he was a member of the maidan and didn't speak a word of English, only Ukrainian..


----------



## Rifleman62

> Or it is a Canadian Journalist freelancing in Ukraine, who just happened to have purchased the parka at a Surplus Store.



To intelligent looking to be a Canadian "journalist".


----------



## MilEME09

Global National reported tonight in what they called an "exclusive" story that Canada and other NATO countries are quietly preparing for the possibility of a Russian incursion in the far north in order for it to lay claim to the resources there.


----------



## Hisoyaki

I'm sure that he means well, but that guy with the nightstick looks very very goofy...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, PETA remains concerned that they'll be coerced into taking Russian citizenship to avoid reprisals ....


> The combat dolphin program in the Crimean city of Sevastopol will be preserved and redirected towards the interests of the Russian Navy, an employee at the facility where the dolphins are trained told RIA Novosti.
> 
> The program, dating to the 1960s, was previously scheduled to be disbanded by the Ukrainian navy in April, but the facility and the dolphins themselves have now become Russian following the reunification of Crimea with Russia last week.
> 
> "The oceanarium's engineers are developing new instruments for new applications to boost the operational efficiency of the dolphins underwater," the employee said, requesting anonymity. The employee added the animals are currently outfitted with extremely outdated equipment.
> 
> The dolphins are trained to patrol open water and attack or attach buoys to items of military interest, such as mines on the sea floor or combat scuba divers trained to slip past enemy security perimeters, known as frogmen. Man-made sonar systems are often incapable of detecting such small objects in crowded environments such as harbors ....


RIA Novosti, 26 Mar 14


----------



## Nemo888

Rifleman62 said:
			
		

> To intelligent looking to be a Canadian "journalist".


Not tot mention too well dressed.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Is it only me, or is the situation clarifying itself?

May take:

     1. None of America, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands and all the other _allis_ are willing to go to war with Russia over Ukraine. In fact, none of America, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands and all the other
         _allis_ are willing to go to war with anyone over much of anything. There was an interesting discussion on CBC Radio in which Margaret MacMillan, a historian and professor at Oxford, and Lawrence Korb, a Senior Fellow at the Centre for American Progress
         and the former Assistant Secretary of Defence in the USA, agreed that A Third World War is very unlikely but nations can, often do miscalculate and push one another into untenable positions ~ think China and its neighbours and islands in the
         China Seas, too;

     2. Russia has _legitimate_ and *vital strategic interests* in Crimea and, indeed, in the whole Black Sea region;

     3. Odessa is a horse of another colour ~ we, the US led West, _may_ (should, in my opinion) have a *vital strategic interst* in not allowing Russia to turn the Black Sea into a Russian lake;

     4. Europe is badly divided: West, _Mittel_ and Easter Europe are not one, _cohesive_ whole. There cannot be a _cohesive_ European policy towards Russia; therefore there cannot be a Western policy, either;

     5. Russia is _united_, but it lacks a realistic, achievable _strategy_ ~ it is, as always, in the invidious position of being sandwiched, _strategically_, between a modern (potentially) powerful and German and a modernizing, powerful China;

     6. Russia has, in Siberia, what China needs: oil, minerals and, above all, water. This _should_ give Russia a _strategic_ 'trump card' but Russia, appears, to me, to qualify for Abba Eban's famous quip about "never missing an opportunity to miss an opportunity;"

     7. Economic sanctions can, often do, work. The Russian economy is weak. It is more vulnerable to sanctions than is almost any other major power;

     8. The US led West is, mostly, bereft of _leadership_ ~ we are _reacting_ because we have no considered _strategy_ (I'm thinking of a _grand strategy_ towards Russia, like _containment_ was in past decades); and

     9. Putin is not in full _control_; he is being driven by internal, domestic _demands_ and ambitions. Therefore, the situation is, for the moment, stable but dangerous.


Edit: format


----------



## Kirkhill

Broad agreement throughout.

Dismay with the obvious reality of point 1.

Agreement on points 2 to 4.

On 4 I can see a revival of the Polish-Lithuanian Confederacy, or the Austro-Hungarian Empire, perhaps even with the Northern elements of the Ottomans, as being in the cards.   

A big question mark on 5.  I question if Russia is united.  The "pur laine" Rus may be united but there are many others within Russia who have no love for Russia or Russians.  (Chechens and Tatars immediately come to mind but I think you can find evidence of ambivalence among the young and the Siberians)
Another point is how we are defining Russia vs how Vlad sees Russia.   Russia became the USSR.  The USSR became the CIS.  Vlad wants the CIS to become the Eurasian Union with Moscow making the calls.  Unfortunately his actions in Crimea have made that less likely because he demonstrates he is an untrustworthy partner to any negotiations.  This has become evident in places like Ukraine and Georgia that have withdrawn from the CIS and other places like Moldova and Romania that have drafted legislation to withdraw from it.  Even the Stans are getting nervous and while NATO might be nervous about having its Afghan LOC exposed by running through Kazakhstan I can't help but wonder if Kazakhstan isn't happy to have at least figleaf of military support to counter Vlad's negotiating tactics.

Agreed on 6 but does Russia really have the strength and the reach to hold that which it claims.  I think that is an open question.  And I doubt if anybody would complain too loudly at the UNSC if tomorrow China headed north to Sakha (at which point China would have a legitimate claim on the Arctic....).   On the other hand if there were one thing likely to trigger a nuclear exchange (Moscow on Beijing) that would likely do it.

On item 7 I have been pleasantly surprised to see just how effective a few targeted personal sanctions have been.... apparently the politicians have learned well from George Soros.  The Stock Market is fickle and skittish and easily stampeded.  Give it a nudge and watch it scatter.

Item 8.  There is no cohesive West.  And there is no leadership in the US.  And there seems to be precious little appetite anywhere to have anyone lead (Washington or Brussels)

Agreed on item 9.

Putin is crystallizing the situation but not in the manner he probably envisaged.  He may have demonstrated the weakness and ineffectiveness of NATO, the EU, Washington, London and Brussels - as he likely intended.  But I think he has created conditions to drive his near neighbours to be more independent politically and militarily (at least with respect to the West, Moscow and Beijing) and more communally reliant on each other.  Economically those countries will continue to pursue their own national interests and make what money they can trading with both Beijing and Brussels.  Ultimately that will isolate Russia more comprehensively than the "West" ever could.   Russia risks finding itself reduced to the ancient Duchy of Muscovy.








Crystallization is an interesting process.  It usually involves seeding a mixture with small crystals and concentrating the mixture to permit the crystals to grow.  Some processes, for example the making of sugar, require a short, sharp, shock to complete the process.  Pycric Acid, when crystalline, does not react at all nicely when shocked - in fact it reacts quite energetically.

Here's hoping it isn't Pycric Acid we're creating.


----------



## The Bread Guy

On point 7, I'm interested to see how long Russia's oligarchs entrepreneurial class will remain unaffacted by the sactions - and how _they_ might twist  Putin's arm.


----------



## Kirkhill

On Point 5 - Russian Unity 

How about a Chechnyan Referendum? Moscow Times



> Crimea Vote Galvanizes Separatists in Russia
> 14 March 2014
> By Yekaterina Kravtsova
> 
> 
> For separatist groups in Dagestan, Tatarstan and other regions of Russia, the Kremlin's support of a referendum on independence in Ukraine's Crimea peninsula would seem to provide an opportunity for their own movements, which have long been repressed by Russian authorities.
> The Kremlin, evidently, does not agree. President Vladimir Putin has long been a vocal opponent of regional separatist movements in Russia, having risen to power by waging a bloody war against rebels in Chechnya, and last year he signed into law a bill that stipulates prison time for those who make separatist appeals.
> Ruling party lawmakers hold a similar position, arguing that the situation in Crimea is fundamentally different from that in the North Caucasus and in multiethnic republics of Russia that have active separatist movements.
> But some observers believe that in the long term, the Kremlin will not be able to restrain the activity of separatist movements across Russia if it supports measures like the Crimea referendum.
> "Russia must never support any referendums [on independence]," opposition leader and anti-corruption campaigner Alexei Navalny wrote Wednesday on his popular LiveJournal blog. "The economy will become weak and we will not be able to give wagons of money to [Chechen leader Ramzan] Kadyrov anymore. This will happen sooner or later."
> "No one doubts that he will immediately organize a referendum on independence. There are no Russians there anymore, the result is clear," Navalny warned.
> Chechnya and Dagestan are seen as the main centers of separatism in Russia, but there are also separatist movements in regions including Tatarstan, Tuva, Bashkortostan, Sakha, and even regions where the majority of the population is Russian, such as exclave Kaliningrad and the Primorsky region in the Far East.
> In recent years, the Kremlin has initiated a policy of settling Russians from former Soviet republics in these regions, giving them Russian citizenship immediately and a place to live. Less than a decade ago, an ethnic Russian moving from a former Soviet country was required to live for five years in Russia to qualify for citizenship.
> At the same time, Russia adheres to a tough policy of suppressing separatist movements. In Chechnya, Putin installed Kadyrov, the son of a former rebel who is now fiercely loyal to the Kremlin, and annually allocates millions of dollars to the republic partly in exchange for Kadyrov's efforts to quash separatist violence there.
> Russia conducted two wars against Chechen separatists following the Soviet collapse. In 1991, Chechnya was declared an independent state by a leader of one of its nationalist movements, Dzhokhar Dudayev, who later became its president. It remained de facto independent until Russian troops invaded in 1994.
> Troops were withdrawn in 1996 after thousands of casualties on each side, and a decision about Chechnya's status was postponed until 2001. The second war, which officially was a counter-terrorist operation, was held from 1999 until 2009, with combat operations lasting until 2001. According to official statistics, up to 160,000 people died during the two wars.
> Putin typically reacts aggressively to any calls for self-determination in regions of Russia, even when such appeals appear to represent no real threat.
> In October, when university professor Sergei Medvedev said he believed the Arctic should be under international control in order to prevent damage to the environment, Putin called him a "fool" and said his position was "anti-national and unpatriotic."
> And late last year, Putin signed into law a measure that stipulates prison time for those who call for independence from the Kremlin. The authorities said the law would prevent the rise of possible separatist tendencies and actions that may lead to Russian regions becoming parts of other countries.
> Given Putin's position on the issue, groups in Russia seeking independence for their regions see the Kremlin's support of Crimea splitting from Ukraine as highly hypocritical.
> "[We] condemn Russia's ongoing double-standard policy in international and home affairs," separatist group the All-Tatar Civic Center said in a statement posted online earlier this month. "It supports any pro-Moscow national movements in former Soviet republics with all [possible] means … while on its own territory conducts a policy of brutal Christianization and Russification of enslaved peoples, with those who oppose such policy being unjustly prosecuted."
> In 1992, Tatarstan held a referendum on independence and 61 percent voted for Tatarstan to be an independent country, but Russia refused to acknowledge the results of the vote.
> Kremlin-loyal lawmakers and observers argued that Russia's support of the Crimea referendum was not hypocritical due to crucial differences between the Ukrainian region and Russian republics.
> Robert Shlegel, a State Duma deputy from the ruling United Russia party, said the referendum in Crimea would be different from separatist initiatives in Russia because Ukraine was "in a state of anarchy."
> "Moreover, Crimea is not a Russian region right now, so separatism movements in Russian regions will not take it as a sign that they can also have a referendum on independence," he said by phone. "That is why in this particular political situation holding a referendum in Crimea is a logical decision."
> Another United Russia deputy, Dagestan native Gadzhimet Sarafaliyev, said he believed the Crimea referendum was legal because the peninsula was historically Russian and it was a mistake to have given it to Ukraine in the first place.
> "We are talking about helping Crimea here," he said by phone. "We do not have any geopolitical interests — Crimea has always been Russian and it must be Russian again."
> He said he was not concerned that the referendum might trigger an escalation of separatist movements in the turbulent Dagestan republic. "How can we talk about an escalation of something that does not exist? Dagestan is the most adapted to Russian society of all regions — there has never been any talk about it becoming a separate country."
> The majority of Dagestan's population is ethnically non-Russian, with some 26 different nationalities living there, and an Islamic separatist movement is active in the republic, although the movement's adherents typically call for the creation of an independent state that would include territories from other North Caucasus republics.
> Meanwhile, Russia's state-controlled media compares the Crimean referendum with upcoming referendums in Britain's Scotland and Spain's Catalonia and refers to Western support of Kosovo's separation from Serbia in 2008.
> Alexei Makarkin, a deputy head of the Center for Political Technologies, a Moscow-based think tank, said that Russia has a clear division into "us and them," allowing everything for "us" and nothing for "them."
> Makarkin's point was demonstrated by Safaraliyev, who insisted that Turkey must have only cultural and humanitarian cooperation with Tatars in Crimea and must not interfere in Ukraine's affairs, since it was a NATO member.
> According to pro-Kremlin pundit Alexei Mukhin, who heads the Center for Political Information think tank, the Kremlin decided to support the Crimea referendum because it realized it would not inspire separatist sentiments in Russia, since all separatist movements in Russia are under the tight control of regional authorities.
> But he argued that the Kremlin's support of the referendum was no more than a bluff in order to "bring to life Ukraine's political system that is stuck in mess and mayhem."
> "When the Federation Council approved the president's decision to send troops to Ukraine, everyone thought war had already begun, which was not true. The same thing holds here — support of the referendum does not mean that the Crimea is already a part of Russia," Mukhin said, adding that Russia would act within the confines of international law in any case.
> But Makarkin said he believed there is no logic in the Kremlin's move and that in the long term it could motivate independence movements in certain Russian regions.
> "Now separatist movements fear the central authorities, who can easily destroy them, but many of them will definitely think, 'Why can't we have such a referendum?'" he said. "The Kremlin has no other answer besides, 'You cannot because it is prohibited.'"
> Makarkin said that the process of fanning separatist sentiments was closely tied with the country's economic situation. "When the economy is weak, separatist movements get an additional argument for their activity," he said.
> All those interviewed by The Moscow Times agreed that Russia would need to allocate significant funds to Crimea if it became part of Russia, making Russia's policy similar to that in Chechnya.
> "The difference is that even though Chechnya was in an extremely disastrous state after two wars, Russia allocated money there at a time when there was economic growth in the county," Makarkin said.
> "But now it would be difficult for the Kremlin both to give money to Crimea and to keep all its social promises, especially if sanctions against Russia come into effect."
> Contact the author at e.kravtsova@imedia.ru



And this abstract from 2000



> Support for Separatism in Ethnic Republics of the Russian Federation
> 
> Louk Hagendoorn, Edwin Poppe, Anca Minescu
> Source: OAI
> ABSTRACT This study examines popular support for separatism among Russians and non-Russian titular nationalities (titulars) in 10 ethnic republics of the Russian Federation: Karelia, Komi, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Udmurtia, Adygea, Dagestan, Kabardino-Balkaria, Sakha-Yakutia and Tuva. A survey was carried out in the urban regions of these republics in 1999 and 2000 in which 5,233 Russians and 4,703 titulars participated. We found that perceived negative inter-group relations significantly contribute to support for separatism among titulars, but reduce support for separatism by Russians. In contrast, indicators of prosperity of the republic and prior separatist elite-activism predict support for separatism among both titulars and Russians.



Short form - Locals like the idea of separation from Mother Russia.  Russians are not thrilled but could be convinced if the local economy outperforms that of the motherland.

_- mod edit to fix formatting -_


----------



## Infantryman2b

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/27/world/europe/obama-europe.html


----------



## The Bread Guy

From a think tank blog keeping track of events:


> .... 1757 GMT: More reports on build-ups of Russian military forces near the Ukrainian border. Censor.NET reports sightings of units of the elite 2nd Taman Motor Rifle Division near the border with Ukraine. About 400 troops in BMP and BTR vehicles and a company of 10 tanks were reported near the settlements of Kalinovka and Amon in the Kursk oblast, less than 10km from the Ukrainian border.
> 
> Russian forces have also been reported near Belgorod, around 40km from the border. The reported units include three battalions of the 76th Pskov Airborne Assault Division and two battalions of the 106th Tula Airborne Assault Division – around 1,100 people and 120 vehicles ....


----------



## Infantryman2b

http://guardianlv.com/2014/03/ukraine-russian-military-buildup-at-novozybkov-50-km-from-chernihiv-border-video/


----------



## Jungle

> The reported units include three battalions of the 76th Pskov Airborne Assault Division and two battalions of the 106th Tula Airborne Assault Division – around 1,100 people...



5 Battalions for 1100 troops ?? We call those Cbt Tms...


----------



## a_majoor

Agree that since Russia has exposed herself as an unreliable neighbour, many of the nations surrounding Russia will be less, rather than more compliant to Russian demands. Putin may have simply made himself more enemies and created more problems in the Near Beyond rather than strengthen his position.

I am also interested to see how the various independence movements within Russia fare. I suspect they will see the heavy hand of Russian security forces, rather than open referenda on their separation from Russia, but that will simply impose another drain on Russian manpower and the economy. Short term gain may well equal long term pain.

Canada should still consider playing its high cards: offer a Free Trade deal with Ukraine (i.e. all territory under control of the government of Ukraine) and build out the pipeline infrastructure to the East Coast and start selling oil to the EU to supplement or even replace Russian energy sales. Ukraine has the public support of a G7 nation and the possibility of getting the economy back on its feet, while the Russians get their major source of hard currency throttled (and I would expect the Chinese would drive a very hard bargain for Russian energy since they are equally not keen on seeing a resurgent and aggressive Russia in her backyard either).


----------



## vonGarvin

Ukraine is a political and financial basket case and doesn't deserve a plug nickel from us.  Not one.


----------



## MilEME09

Thucydides said:
			
		

> Canada should still consider playing its high cards: offer a Free Trade deal with Ukraine (i.e. all territory under control of the government of Ukraine) and build out the pipeline infrastructure to the East Coast and start selling oil to the EU to supplement or even replace Russian energy sales. Ukraine has the public support of a G7 nation and the possibility of getting the economy back on its feet, while the Russians get their major source of hard currency throttled (and I would expect the Chinese would drive a very hard bargain for Russian energy since they are equally not keen on seeing a resurgent and aggressive Russia in her backyard either).



Actually Harper has opened up the FTA door for Ukraine and they took it, talks were put on hold in 2012 but as a card they could deal recently Harper said those talks would be restarted.


----------



## CombatMacguyver

Anyone come across this yet?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXooBkkCMP0


----------



## The Bread Guy

Thucydides said:
			
		

> Canada should still consider playing its high cards: offer a Free Trade deal with Ukraine (i.e. all territory under control of the government of Ukraine) ....





			
				MilEME09 said:
			
		

> Actually Harper has opened up the FTA door for Ukraine and they took it, talks were put on hold in 2012 but as a card they could deal recently Harper said those talks would be restarted.


Funny you should mention this - this appears to be zackly one of the things Ukraine sought (this from Interfax Ukraine, an independent Ukrainian wire service ....


> Ukraine has asked Canada to create a Free Trade Area (FTA), Ukraine's Premier Arseniy Yatseniuk has reported.
> 
> "We asked our Canadian friends to resume the talks on the creation of a free trade area that have been terminated two years ago," the premier said at a joint press conference with Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper in Kyiv on Saturday.


.... and got:


> .... Mr. Harper, who stopped near Independence Square to lay a wreath to those killed during an uprising against Ukraine’s former pro-Russian government, also announced he will restart free trade talks with Kiev, a show of support for the beleaguered country’s government ....



Taking the idea a step further today, even the UKR pres is saying:  Wanna help Ukraine?  Buy Ukrainian instead of Russian!


> It was stated today by Acting President of Ukraine, Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov during the meeting with Chairman of the Board of Yalta European Strategy, former President of the Republic of Poland Aleksander Kwasniewski.
> 
> In the course of meeting, the Parties discussed the situation in Ukraine and the future YES (Yalta European Strategy) forum.
> 
> According to Oleksandr Turchynov, today, the new government is dealing with overcoming deep economic and socio-political crisis under extremely difficult conditions. “We have initiated real efficient changes in the country. However, the movement we would like to accelerate is now being inhibited by the Russian Federation’s aggression,” he added.
> 
> Moreover, Oleksandr Turchynov noted that the government was working on creating conditions for attracting investments to Ukraine.
> 
> “Our task is to create new plants and jobs, create conditions under which the Ukrainian economy is interesting for those who want to invest in it,” he said.
> 
> Oleksandr Turchynov also stressed that the assistance of Europe, the EU and other civilized countries of the world that are against Russian aggression in Crimea and are introducing sanctions against Russia “regarding substituting Russian goods with Ukrainian ones in connection with the fact that Russia is carrying out not only military aggression but also economic war against Ukraine” can be efficient ....



FYI, one Ukrainian media estimate:  the Crimean troubles cost Ukraine CDN ~$1.8B, for things like _"51 ship, among them - submarine "Zaporozhye", large and medium landing ship "Konstantin Olshansky" and "Kirovograd" two sea tralery "Chernigov" and "Odessa", six corvettes, including two missile , tankers, boats, training and rescue vessels, tug and technical equipment, such as a floating crane"_ (excuse the clunky Google translation - check here if your Ukrainian is good)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Lest it all be gloom & doom  ;D


----------



## The Bread Guy

Interesting summary of *a Russian journalist's*** analysis (screen capture attached) of Putin's "red lines" ....


> .... (Yevgeny) Krutikov devotes his article to where these lines are. According to him, they include any further expansion of NATO eastward, especially involving Georgia and Ukraine, designed to encircle Russia. Instead, Putin’s first “red line” is that Ukraine, Georgia, Sweden and Finland must retain their “neutral status as ‘buffer countries.’”
> 
> A second Putin “red line” concerns Georgia in particular. Moscow isn’t interested in restoring normal ties with Georgia, Krutikov says, because it will insist “on the preservation of the independent status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as part of the general structures of international politics,” something that will block NATO and Western expansion there.
> 
> A third Putin “red line” is in the Baltic countries. Krutikov insists that Russia has no plans to “destabilize” the situation “in the Baltic direction.” The economies of Latvia and Estonia, he says, are “a virtual joke” and imposition of sanctions on Russia will hit them hard.
> 
> “For the Russian Federation,” the Vzglad journalist says, “’a red line’ could arise only if there were an effort to strengthen the NATO grouping in the region with offensive forces of high precision and greater radius of action,” something Moscow believes “would be a violation of international agreements.”
> 
> In addition, he writes, Moscow would consider “absolutely unacceptable” any “unfriendly actions” by Lithuania and Poland toward Kaliningrad or toward Russian shipping and other commerce in the Baltic region.
> 
> A fourth Putin “red line” would be any manipulation of oil and gas prices designed to punish Russia as a major exporter. That line is unlikely to be crossed, Krutikov says, because any moves in that direction would hurt those who initiated such an action as well.
> 
> A fifth such line, he continues, would be an American or Western threat to or action against any of Russia’s allies around the world such as Syria. “Attacking the weak is a tactic as ancient as the world,” but if the West does this in the current crisis, Putin will view it as yet another “red line” violated.
> 
> A sixth “red line” for Putin is any terrorist action on the territory of the Russian Federation that Moscow could find “a trace” of American influence and thus hold the US responsible.
> 
> A seventh is the further militarization of the Arctic intended to reduce Russia’s pre-eminence there.
> 
> An eighth is the American push for further nuclear draw-downs at both the strategic and tactical level, an effort that Krutikov says the Kremlin views as part of a general effort to weaken Russian power.
> 
> And a ninth is American support for “a ‘fifth column’” of opposition figures in the Russian Federation and especially any encouragement for demonstrations against the Putin regime ....


LOTS more detail in the Russian piece about each "red line".

**** - This blog calls the author of the original article "a Russian journalist, who in the early 1990s worked as Assistant to the Prime Minister of South Ossetia"


----------



## Kirkhill

Short form: "Move.... and I kill you."  I'm pretty sure I've seen that movie.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> Short form: "Move.... and I kill you."  I'm pretty sure I've seen that movie.


Agreed - Russia can ALWAYS cry "Wahhhh, NATO's pressing in on me/us/ethnic Russians", even in the middle of NATO member territory.  When will their oppression end, right?


----------



## Edward Campbell

UN general Assembly resolution calling on all members to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine garnered 100 or so _Yeas_ and 57 countries abstained. Ten countries joined Russia in voting _Nay_:

Russia
Armenia
Belarus
Bolivia
Cuba
DPRK (North Korea)
Nicaragua
Sudan
Syria
Venezuela
Zimbabwe







Canadian aid (2012) went to: Armenia: $4 Million; Bolivia: $31 Million; Cuba: $6 Million; DPRK: $7 Million; Nicaragua: $22 Million; Russia: $56 Million; Sudan and South Sudan: $120 Million; Syria: $7 Million; Zimbabwe: $29 Million ... well, look at that, I've found a way to save over $175 Million (I wouldn't cut aid to South Sudan) which means we can afford to beef up Canada's NATO commitments.  :nod:


----------



## Journeyman

All of the -stans, China, and Mongolia either abstained or were absent for the vote.  Interesting how shared borders and distance from Europe influence one's thinking.


----------



## Kirkhill

Journeyman said:
			
		

> All of the -stans, China, and Mongolia either abstained or were absent for the vote.  Interesting how shared borders and distance from Europe influence one's thinking.



I agree.   Interesting how even with shared borders the Stans  and Mongolia decided to abstain rather than feel they had to support Putin.  

The Revenge of the Scythians.....


----------



## YZT580

Reports today say that Russia has doubled the cost of Natural Gas to Ukraine and has moved a further 50,000 troops to their border.  But they are just practicing.


----------



## Kirkhill

Nathan Forrest would be appreciative of Putin's efforts to date.  Now he holds Ukraine hostage to fate.

Beef up the Baltics?  Invade Ukraine.

Exercise in Poland?  Invade Ukraine

Watch the price of Russian gas fall?  Invade Ukraine

Add BMD installation in Romania?  Invade Ukraine.......


----------



## vonGarvin

Not quite doubled. It will increase 50%, because they will be ending the subsidies they had in place.  This has been widely reported.
I haven't seen anything on a fresh batch of 50, 000 troops. Do you have a link?


----------



## Edward Campbell

Journeyman said:
			
		

> All of the -stans, China, and Mongolia either abstained or were absent for the vote.  Interesting how shared borders and distance from Europe influence one's thinking.




China would never vote for a motion like this. It policy is to oppose everything and anything that _might_ even hint at the UN interfering in the internal affairs of member states. It is, actually, a wee bit surprising that they only abstained ~ it's a bit of a slap at Putin/Russia. (I don't know if China formally abstained or simply wasn't in the room.)


----------



## GAP

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Canadian aid (2012) went to: Armenia: $4 Million; Bolivia: $31 Million; Cuba: $6 Million; DPRK: $7 Million; Nicaragua: $22 Million; Russia: $56 Million; Sudan and South Sudan: $120 Million; Syria: $7 Million; Zimbabwe: $29 Million ... well, look at that, I've found a way to save over $175 Million (I wouldn't cut aid to South Sudan) which means we can afford to beef up Canada's NATO commitments.  :nod:



I think we should gather our marbles back home and rethink about just who and why we are giving $$ to.... :


----------



## Edward Campbell

We _give_ aid for a number of reasons: the most common is to create markets for our goods and services.

We were famous, in the 1960s, for building "railways to nowhere" in order to "give away" locomotives and rail cars made in Canadian factories. In effect our foreign aid was, mainly, a domestic job creation programme.

Sometimes our aid, especially _untied_ government to government payments are nothing more than bribes ~ that type of aid is far, far less common today and that, not our policy towards Israel, is why we weren't elected to the UNSC.

Other aid is designed to "grease the wheels" in countries in which we want to do business.

Some aid actually tries to help the least fortunate in the world ... but not much.


----------



## GAP

I have difficulty wondering who's wheels we are greasing for some on that list such as Syria, NK, and Zimbabwe....just for a couple of examples. 

Nothing we do or pay for is going to help us or the needy in those countries.


----------



## wannabe SF member

http://rt.com/news/right-nationalists-storm-ukraine-701/

Assuming this isn't another one of those exaggerated reports by RT, this won't help with the low level of trust the Ukrainian public currently has in the Ukrainian government.


----------



## The Bread Guy

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> UN general Assembly resolution calling on all members to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine garnered 100 or so _Yeas_ and 57 countries abstained. Ten countries joined Russia in voting _Nay_:
> 
> Russia
> Armenia
> Belarus
> Bolivia
> Cuba
> DPRK (North Korea)
> Nicaragua
> Sudan
> Syria
> Venezuela
> Zimbabwe


.... leading to this headline from the ITAR-TASS Russian government information service:


> *Vote on Ukraine resolution in UN GA shows Russia not in isolation*





			
				Inky said:
			
		

> http://rt.com/news/right-nationalists-storm-ukraine-701/
> 
> Assuming this isn't another one of those exaggerated reports by RT, this won't help with the low level of trust the Ukrainian public currently has in the Ukrainian government.


C'mon, now - Ukrainian authorities said right wing activist guy shot _himself_.  Chill, folks, move along, now - nothing to see here ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Another map to share (attached) showing how one Ukrainian media outlet is showing how it's surrounded by Russian troop threats.

In other news ....


			
				milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Meanwhile, PETA remains concerned that they'll be coerced into taking Russian citizenship to avoid reprisals ....
> 
> 
> 
> The combat dolphin program in the Crimean city of Sevastopol will be preserved and redirected towards the interests of the Russian Navy, an employee at the facility where the dolphins are trained told RIA Novosti.
> 
> The program, dating to the 1960s, was previously scheduled to be disbanded by the Ukrainian navy in April, but the facility and the dolphins themselves have now become Russian following the reunification of Crimea with Russia last week.
> 
> "The oceanarium's engineers are developing new instruments for new applications to boost the operational efficiency of the dolphins underwater," the employee said, requesting anonymity. The employee added the animals are currently outfitted with extremely outdated equipment.
> 
> The dolphins are trained to patrol open water and attack or attach buoys to items of military interest, such as mines on the sea floor or combat scuba divers trained to slip past enemy security perimeters, known as frogmen. Man-made sonar systems are often incapable of detecting such small objects in crowded environments such as harbors ....
> 
> 
> 
> RIA Novosti, 26 Mar 14
Click to expand...

Not quite PETA, but close enough ....


> *Dolphins are Not Military Equipment! Russia Takes Over Ukraine’s Dolphin Navy*
> 
> .... It’s time for us to realize that, just because we share our lives with other beings, it does not give us full reign over them.


----------



## AliG

Inky said:
			
		

> http://rt.com/news/right-nationalists-storm-ukraine-701/
> 
> Assuming this isn't another one of those exaggerated reports by RT, this won't help with the low level of trust the Ukrainian public currently has in the Ukrainian government.



I'll offer the other side... 

http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-liveblog-russia-likely-to-invade-ukraine-says-u-s-intelligence/

Starts at about the 1910GMT entry.

Now, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle if at all.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Technoviking said:
			
		

> Correlation isn't causation necessarily, but...




And, going all the way back to Page 2 of this thread, we see the ethno-political _nature_ of Ukraine, and now, in a report on _ITAR-TASS_ (yes, good ol' TASS is still there, still pumping out the Kremlin's _party line_) we _may_ see Putin's/Russia's _end game_: "Viktor Yanukovych, Ukraine's legitimate president who had to quit the country, in an address to the Ukrainian people has called for holding a referendum on the status of each region within Ukraine," the article says.

I doubt such a referendum would produce results that would differ, much, from the map the Technoviking posted and such a referendum would give Putin all the _moral authority_ he needs (100 countries might disagree) to partition Ukraine on ethno-political lines.

There _may_ be an economic argument in favour of _part_ of that ~ my suspicion is that _productivity_ in the blue (South-East) sections is measurably lower than in the North-West, but it is only a guess  with NO evidentiary foundation.


----------



## vonGarvin

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> There _may_ be an economic argument in favour of _part_ of that ~ my suspicion is that _productivity_ in the blue (South-East) sections is measurably lower than in the North-West, but it is only a guess  with NO evidentiary foundation.



This map is in Ukrainian, and I can only decypher a wee bit of it, but it _suggests_, I think that there are two _hubs_ of industry in Ukraine: one near the border with Poland, and the other, more significant region, in the south and east.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Do some of those bigger _pies_ show coal fields? Industrial concentrations are often coincident with coal; but being close to one's energy supply, while advantageous, does not, very often, relate much to _productivity_ which, generally, is a matter of good management, not resources. My general _sense_ is that the _closer_ you are, culturally, to Moscow (or to Paris, Rome or Madrid for that matter) the less likely you are to have "good" management.


----------



## vonGarvin

From what I can tell, from top to bottom on the chart on the lower left:
Electroenergy (Hydro electric?)
Fuel
Iron Ore
Chemical works (?)
Engineering (Heavy industry?) (red)
Food is the yellow (second from bottom)


----------



## Kirkhill

Both the eastern and western concentrations are coincident with the coalfields.    The Western coalfields are older but I believe they are played out as conventional energy sources - on the other hand both areas are still viable as FRAC'd gas and In Situ Coal Gas suppliers.

The western mines have seen closures and privatization while the eastern mines are largely state owned

Euracoal notes this:



> The productivity of Ukrainian miners is rather low at 28.3 tonnes per month per miner. State-owned mines have a productivity of 21.5 tonnes, whilst private mines have a productivity of 42.2 tonnes per month per miner.



Meanwhile there is believed to be considerable Fracing potential in Poland, Lithuania, Ukraine and the Baltic according to this report







And then there is the Coal Gas


My take on the situation is that Putin is facing the problem of every other unreliable supplier - the market is finding workarounds.  In this case Western Europe can become more reliant on indigenous energy and Poland et al, sitting astride the lines to deliver Russian gas to Europe, can start substituting their own gas for the Russian gas.   Add in some coal fired electric plants and Poland and Western Ukraine have the capability to make Russia irrelevant to Europe.    And that is Vlad's biggest problem - irrelevance means no cash flow.


By the way, Donetsk was apparently developed by a Welshman, John Hughes and was originally named for him - prompting this referendum


----------



## Infantryman2b

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/deposed-ukrainian-president-demands-vote-on-each-regions-status/article17715750/

Ex president wants all regions in Ukraine to hold referendums to determine there future status with Ukraine.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Here's one way to crank up the old mobilization pool ....


> The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine passed legal changes concerning army mobilization.
> 
> The new law will enable Ukrainians aged 40-55 "to realize their constitutional duty of protecting the territorial integrity of Ukraine," according to a memo.
> 
> The Code of Labor Laws will now include a clause that employees called up to the military service during a mobilization campaign for a maximum period of one year will be guaranteed the protection of their jobs and positions within institutions and organizations regardless of subordination and form of ownership, as well as their average salary, one of the authors, Oleksandr Kuzmuk (member of the Economic Development parliamentary group) said before the voting.
> 
> The bill was favored by 267 deputies during the vote on Thursday evening, an Interfax-Ukraine correspondent said.
> 
> The new law will also allow the increase of social guarantees for military service members called up for military service during a mobilization campaign.
> 
> The law also clarifies a procedure for "fulfilling military-transport duty."


Can't find a ref, but I think the old obligation age was 50.


----------



## YZT580

http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-claims-100-000-russian-troops-near-border-151112283.html  My apologies for being so tardy with the information.  Above link says 100000 troops but other reports have varied between 25000 and 50000.  Regardless, it is a lot more than are normally involved in drills etc.  All the experts to the contrary I expect more "rescue" missions to protect Russian speaking citizens in other areas until or unless NATO moves even a few platoons into each potential trouble spots after the appropriate publicly broadcast diplomatic request to provide unbiased assistance to the local police forces hence guaranteeing neutrality.  I don't believe even Putin would order troops to fire on a known British, Canadian or French representative.


----------



## The Bread Guy

YZT580 said:
			
		

> .... I expect more "rescue" missions to protect Russian speaking citizens in other areas *until or unless NATO moves even a few platoons into each potential trouble spots* after the appropriate publicly broadcast diplomatic request to provide unbiased assistance to the local police forces hence guaranteeing neutrality.  I don't believe even Putin would order troops to fire on a known British, Canadian or French representative.


I'm as pro-Ukrainian as the next guy, but even though the SecGen talked about "commitment to the defence of our Allies is unbreakable and at the same time we are firm in our support of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity", I'm not seeing the blue-over-yellow on this list.

On a related note, a reminder via this commentary by retired general Lewis MacKenzie:


> .... In the aftermath of NATO’s failures in Afghanistan, there is the possibility of a three-tier alliance emerging once the post-mission evaluation is completed:
> 
> Tier 1: Those countries who will.
> 
> Tier 2: Those countries who won’t.
> 
> Tier 3: Those countries who can’t.


----------



## Journeyman

Infantryman2b said:
			
		

> Ex president wants all regions in Ukraine to hold referendums to determine there future status with Ukraine.


Yes, it was already posted here, thank you.  Maybe it's time to give that whole "reading" thing a try.


----------



## Infantryman2b

I read plenty thanks. I missed it because I just woke, my apologies.


----------



## YZT580

Having actually lived in Brussels for a number of years sadly, I concur with General Mackenzie.  Europe lacks the prime requirement for positive action in any situation:leadership!


----------



## vonGarvin

The sabre rattling appears to be ongoing.




> US President Barack Obama has urged Russia to "move back its troops" on Ukraine's border and lower tensions.
> 
> Russia is believed to have massed a force of several thousand troops close to Ukraine's eastern frontier.
> 
> Mr Obama told CBS News it may "be an effort to intimidate Ukraine, or it may be that [Russia has] additional plans."
> 
> Meanwhile, a Russian security official has said intelligence measures are being stepped up to counter Western threats to Moscow's influence.



From here:


----------



## McG

On a weak optimistic note, Russia is offering to return some Ukrainian military equipment that is in Crimea.
... of course, the Russian military perspective is probably that they are giving them back their garbage.


----------



## Lightguns

If it is anything like the way they return lend lease, everyone will have a good dump in it first!


----------



## Bird_Gunner45

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> I'm as pro-Ukrainian as the next guy, but even though the SecGen talked about "commitment to the defence of our Allies is unbreakable and at the same time we are firm in our support of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity", I'm not seeing the blue-over-yellow on this list.
> 
> On a related note, a reminder via this commentary by retired general Lewis MacKenzie:



Railroad, but why the h*%l did Luxembourg get into NATO? Iceland I get.  But luxembourg? really??? what, is Andorra too good for NATO!


----------



## KerryBlue

Vice news website just put out this piece half an hour ago..interesting perspective..



> [size=12pt]*Predictions Are Stupid … But Russia Is About to Invade Ukraine*[/size]
> 
> Predicting world events is hard. It’s much easier to stay away from concrete predictions and instead stick to frightening hypotheticals, like “Warmongering Aliens From a Distant Star Could Enslave Us All.” Discussing scary possibilities is fast and easy, while prediction — saying something is going to happen rather than merely bringing up the fact that it could — often leaves people looking foolish later on. And if there’s one thing any self-appointed authority hates, it’s looking like a moron in public.
> 
> But barring a major change in the next 24 hours or so, I think we might in theory be close to … ah, screw it. Russian troops are about to march on the rest of Ukraine, and I'm going to tell you what's making me so sure(ish).



https://news.vice.com/articles/predictions-are-stupid-but-russia-is-about-to-invade-ukraine



Thoughts?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Bird_Gunner45 said:
			
		

> Railroad, but why the h*%l did Luxembourg get into NATO? Iceland I get.  But luxembourg? really??? what, is Andorra too good for NATO!


And how special does _San Marino_ THINK it is?!?!  ;D

Back on track, "Depart with Dignity, Kiev Edition" - outgoing guy on the right, incoming guy on the left  (Google English - Ukrainian) ....


> Today, March 28, Kyiv hosted the ceremony of transfer of authority of the Minister of Defense of Ukraine.  The event was attended by Acting Minister of Defence of Ukraine, Colonel-General Mykhaylo Koval, his predecessor as head of the Defense Ministry, Admiral Igor Tenyukh, Chief of Staff - Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Michael Kutsin, military personnel and employees of the Ministry of Defence and the General Staff of Ukraine ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Something to read for journalists/pundits/apologists still calling them "pro-Russian forces" or "self-defence militias" ....


> Russian President Vladimir Putin praised the Russian military's professionalism on Friday, saying their actions helped prevent bloodshed in Crimea, which rejoined Russia last week after 60 years as part of Ukraine.
> 
> Putin said the precision and professionalism of the Russian military helped ensure peaceful conditions for holding a referendum in Crimea earlier this month, which international observers certified as free and fair.
> 
> "The recent events in Crimea were a serious test, demonstrating the quality of the new capabilities of our military personnel, as well as the high moral spirit of the staff," Putin said at a ceremony attended by senior commanders.
> 
> The president also thanked the officers and sailors of the Black Sea Fleet as well as other units stationed in Crimea for their endurance and personal courage ....



In other news ....


> Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has declared that Russia will not order its forces into eastern Ukraine, despite US intelligence reports that 50,000 Russian troops have been mobilised along their shared border.
> 
> *"We have absolutely no intention and no interests in crossing the Ukrainian border,"* Russia's chief diplomat told Russian state television.
> 
> "We (Russia and the West) are getting closer in our positions," he added.
> 
> Lavrov said that recent discussions with other leaders showed the promise of a "possible joint initiative which could be presented to our Ukrainian colleagues" ....


On that bit in orange, here's another way it might be put (courtesy of a satirical Putin Twitter feed) ....


> I'm not paying for my vodka. We had a vote & agreed. Me, the barman & my guards who held a taser to his nuts. So it's democratic. #crimea


----------



## Kirkhill

Here's another interesting piece of data out of Kazakhstan.



> Russia to deploy Iskander missiles at Kazakhstan border
> Friday, 28.03.2014, 20:23
> 
> Russia to deploy Iskander missiles at Kazakhstan border
> Iskander, mobile theater ballistic missile system. ©RIA Novosti
> Russia will deploy its missiles at the border with Kazakhstan, Tengrinews reports citing Izvestiya. The missiles expected at the border are Iskander mobile theater ballistic missile systems.
> 
> These short-range ballistic missiles can be equipped with several different warheads, including a cluster munitions warhead, a fuel-air explosive enhanced-blast warhead, a high explosive-fragmentation warhead, an earth penetrator for bunker busting and an electro-magnetic pulse device for anti-radar missions. The missiles can also carry nuclear warheads.
> 
> Russian Federal Agency for Special Construction is planning erect storage facilities for Iskander-M missile systems 100 kilometers away from the Kazakhstan border before the end of this year. Based on its agreements with Kazakhstan, Russia will be able to quickly deploy the short-range missiles to the Kazakhstan territory. Such operations have become possible thanks to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) agreements.
> 
> Russian Defense Ministry plans to finished construction of pads for Iskander missiles in Totskoye-2 village in Orenburg Oblast by the end of the year. Special Construction Agency confirmed that it is working on the project, but declined to provide any details. Guided Missile Brigade #92 deployed in Totskoye-2 village will be ready to accept the new Iskander-M systems in December 2014. The brigade was transferred to the Kazakh border - from Kamenka in Penzenskaya Oblast to the Orenburg Oblast - in autumn 2012.
> 
> A brigade will have 12 launch complexes at its disposal. The Iskander-M operational range makes 500 kilometers and can be increased to 2,000 kilometers by use of P-500 cruise missiles. This means that with the missile systems deployed at the Kazakhstan border the Russian army would be able to target most anything as far as the southern and south-eastern borders of Kazakhstan.
> 
> Chief Editor of Moscow Defense Brief Vasily Kashin said that the Central Asian vector is viewed by Russian as the most troublous *because of the withdrawal of the Allied Forces from Afghanistan. In his opinion, reduction of the American presence in the area could lead to destabilization in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan*. “In this case the forces of the Central Military District of Russia must be ready to close in and help Kazakhstan protect the border, because Kazakhstan's own forces are not very large,” Kashin said.
> 
> President of Institute of Strategic Assessments, a Russian NGO, Aleksandr Konovalov shared the chief editor's opinion. Afghanistan can become engulfed in radical Islam, he said. “And this influence will be spreading beyond the borders of Afghanistan, first of all into the post-Soviet countries of Central Asia. (…) We share common interests with Kazakhstan. And the military equipment, including the Iskanders, will give us a big advantage over the Islamists,” the expert said.
> 
> For more information see: http://en.tengrinews.kz/military/Russia-to-deploy-Iskander-missiles-at-Kazakhstan-border-252507/
> Use of the Tengrinews English materials must be accompanied by a hyperlink to en.Tengrinews.kz



Taken together with this:



> Kazakhstan suspends Russian missile tests
> Russian rocket and missile tests on Kazakh lands halted after rocket explodes near village.


  Al Jazeera and Tengrinews

As well as the absence of Kazakhstan's name on the list of  nations supporting Russia's move into Crimea



> The 11 that opposed the resolution were Armenia, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, North Korea, Nicaragua, Russia, Sudan, Syria, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe.



Taken all together it suggests that Russia's CIS and Eurasian Union may be in a bit of difficulty.  

Add in China's ambivalence on supporting Russia and Ukraine's best safeguard may in fact be Russia's vulnerable Asian flanks.

The Stans may not initiate military action but they might decide that they can afford a bit more independence by playing Beijing, New Delhi and Washington against Moscow: A situation that would ultimately play to China's benefit.


----------



## Kat Stevens

"We have absolutely no intention and no interests in crossing the *insert country here* border," - Said every government just before an invasion throughout history.  I think Caesar said the same thing in Calais looking across at those lovely white cliffs.


----------



## midget-boyd91

Kat Stevens said:
			
		

> "We have absolutely no intention and no interests in crossing the *insert country here* border," - Said every government just before an invasion throughout history.  I think Caesar said the same thing in Calais looking across at those lovely white cliffs.



I believe Putin also said something along the lines of having no intention of annexing Crimea when reports of Russian troops flooding in by helicopter began to surface. How long did that last?


----------



## Kirkhill

uncle-midget-Oddball said:
			
		

> I believe Putin also said something along the lines of having no intention of annexing Crimea when reports of Russian troops flooding in by helicopter began to surface. How long did that last?


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> .... Meanwhile, included in the latest U.S. package to help Ukraine ....
> 
> 
> 
> (....)
> 
> Immediate Assistance
> 
> (....) Department of Defense (DoD) personnel will organize a Humanitarian Assistance Planning Conference with the Ukrainian Armed Forces. DoD will provide Meals Ready to Eat (MREs) to the Ukrainian Armed Forces ....
> 
> 
> 
> Apart from the humanitarian implications of sharing MRE's with the Ukrainians, this Twitter weisenheimer seems to have summed it up well:
> 
> 
> 
> We are sending MREs to Ukraine to stave off a Soviet invasion. I hope not the pizza or 4 fingers of death.
> 
> Click to expand...
Click to expand...


According to the Ukrainian MoD (original in Ukrainian), the rations made it there - funny how the Yanks look happier to be handing them off than the Ukrainians are to be taking them  >


----------



## Journeyman

*Putin responds to Europe and the West*  anic: 

[I was channelling my inner S.M.A.  :nod: ]




> *Thanks For Being So Cool About Everything*
> 
> Commentary • Opinion • ISSUE 50•11 • Mar 20, 2014
> By Vladimir Putin
> 
> 
> 
> As you know, the last few weeks have been kind of crazy around here. Last month, protests in Ukraine ousted the country’s Kremlin-allied president and ignited a wave of Ukrainian nationalism that threatened to destabilize Russia’s economic and military interests in the region. Of course, I couldn’t simply stand by and let that happen, so I intervened and ordered a forceful takeover of the strategically important peninsula of Crimea—a territory with historical ties to Russia that our nation had long desired. It’s certainly no easy task to forcefully annex an entire province against another country’s will, so I just wanted to thank you—the government of the United States, the nations of western Europe, and really the entire world population as a whole—for being super cool about all of this.
> 
> Seriously, you guys have been amazing. All of you. I really appreciate it.
> 
> I totally owe you one, no question about that.
> 
> There is one thing I want to say though, and I feel a little silly admitting this, but there was actually a moment earlier when I did feel a little dread. For one unnerving second there, I thought you imposed sanctions on Russia’s broad national economy, but then I saw the sanctions were just directed at a few of my advisers and some bank I don’t care about. Boy, talk about a major relief!



Complete article at  link


----------



## Edward Campbell

My _*opinion*_:

     1. Ukraine is, as it has been for a generation, a pawn ~ the EU doesn't really want Ukraine, it doesn't _'fit'_, but then nor do Romania and Bulgaria which are, I _suspect_, only there because of an original mistake: Greece; but

     2. The EU and Russia got in a low level _bidding war_ for Ukraine ~ more to have a _buffer_ than a "member" in each case ~ although Russia does have a deep historical/emotional attachment to Ukraine, and myths do matter;

     3. Crimea is a separate issue ~ it, as the home of Russia's traditional and still _strategically *vital*_ "warm water port;"

     4. There are very few if any "good guys" in all this, but there are "bad guys" aplenty;

     5. Russia/Putin _bluffed_. Russia/Putin had (still has) a weak hand but played it aggressively. The US led West had (again, still has) a much stronger hand but, to continue that analogy and strain it a bit, the cards are divided amongst several players:
         NATO, the EU, Washington and Berlin and none of the players is allowing the others to 'see' the whole hand. Russia/Putin doesn't, really, have a _grand strategy_ ~ he's making it up on the fly, so to speak, but then, neither do Obama,
         Cameron, Hollande, Merkel, Harper, _et al_. (We, the EU and NATO, could have _bluffed_, too, in the early going, but we didn't (couldn't?) Russia/Putin was much more nimble);

     6. Despite _some_ good news, which the Technoviking has explained elsewhere, Russia is _strategically_ weak. Worse, from Russia's perspective, it is threatened on three fronts: by the Western European's economic strength; by China's _strategic_ (economic,
         military and cultural) power; and by restless Muslims in the South;

      7. Russia still maintains a large massive capacity to make mischief ~ in Europe and in the _Islamic Crescent_;

      8. We, the US led West have nothing to gain from a new 'cold war,' but Russia/Putin _might_ think it can be useful to allow the _leadership_ to harness national _emotions_ to advance certain projects that, on their own merits, don't make much sense; and

      9. This does provide an opportunity to _isolate_ Russia, economically, which might be a _strategically_ useful course of action.

_I'll take my  :2c: in Hong Kong dollars, please ..._


Edit: format


----------



## The Bread Guy

Another tile in the mosaic - the latest open source guess-timate (from a Ukrainian military official via Reuters) of Russky troops on the Ukrainian border: +/- 10K:


> The number of Russian troops deployed on the border with Ukraine is decreasing, a Ukrainian Defense Ministry official said on Monday, but he cautioned that this might not represent a pull-back of forces.
> 
> Major-General Oleksandr Rozmaznin told journalists the drop in numbers might reflect a scheduled rotation of conscripts rather than a withdrawal, and he would not confirm the numbers involved.
> 
> "The number of soldiers has fallen, but the exact figure is pretty approximate. I can not confirm the number," said Rozmaznin when asked if as many as 10,000 soldiers might have left the border area.
> 
> "The number has definitely dropped and it (the situation) has calmed down. We won't rejoice and shout 'Hurray'. It doesn't matter how many of them there are, we just need to make sure our defenses are strong," he said.
> 
> Conscripts made up a large part of the Russian army and "a certain number of conscripts could be stood down and swapped for others", Rozmaznin said ....


----------



## Edward Campbell

A couple of German "elder statesmen" weigh in on the situation but, according to this article, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the _Globe and Mail_, their motives are suspect:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/rob-insight/merkels-predecessors-reject-wests-ukraine-strategy/article17721124/#dashboard/follows/


> Merkel’s predecessors reject West’s Ukraine strategy
> 
> SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
> 
> CARL MORTISHED
> LONDON — Special to The Globe and Mail
> 
> Published Monday, Mar. 31 2014
> 
> Two former German chancellors have spoken out in defence of the Russian annexation of Crimea. Helmut Schmidt, who led a Social Democrat government at the height of the Cold War, dismissed the sanctions targeted at Russian individuals as “nonsense” and said that he could well understand President Vladimir Putin’s actions in Crimea. His remarks follow a critique of the West’s strategy towards Ukraine by fellow Social Democrat Gerhard Schroeder, who has compared the Russian annexation of Ukraine with NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in 1999.
> 
> Mr. Schroeder’s sympathy for the Russian position has provoked accusations of self-interest and that he is spreading Russian propaganda; the former German chancellor who led the country from 1998-2005 is known to be a personal friend of the Russian leader and is currently chairman of Nord Stream, the operator of the Baltic gas pipeline linking Russia with Germany. During the crisis in the former Yugoslavia, Mr. Schroeder played a key role in supporting the use of force in deterring Serbian aggression in Kosovo. Yet in forcing Ukraine to choose between Europe and Russia, he argues the West has made a mistake.
> 
> Self-interested or not, Mr. Schroeder’s criticism is echoed by a high-profile political opponent, Helmut Kohl, a Christian Democrat former chancellor and political mentor of the current chancellor Angela Merkel. Earlier this month, Mr. Kohl lamented the bulldozing Western policy in Ukraine. “The upheaval in Ukraine was not handled intelligently. There’s also been a lack of sensitivity with our Russian neighbours, especially with President Putin.”
> 
> The skeptical commentary from some leading German political figures is a warning to Washington that the most powerful European state is ambivalent about, if not indifferent to Ukraine, nor does it share the black and white view of the Russian annexation of Crimea. Indeed, a recent poll commissioned by Spiegel, the German news magazine, found that 54 per cent of Germans accepted the Russian annexation of Crimea as a fait accompli while 55 per cent said that Crimea was part of Russia’s sphere of influence. It strongly suggests that Ms. Merkel’s strong backing for European sanctions is a political gambit and does not fully reflect German attitudes – notably Ostpolitik, the consensus policy of engagement with Russia which started with Chancellor Willy Brandt during the Cold War and which continued with Helmut Schmidt and Helmut Kohl.
> 
> Some would argue that Germany, like Mr. Schroeder, is speaking with its wallet. Its business interests are knitted closely to Russia through oil and gas pipelines, as well as manufacturing alliances. To his acute embarrassment, Joe Kaeser, the chief executive of Siemens AG, found himself hijacked into a photo call this week during a long-scheduled meeting in the Kremlin with the Russian president. Others have been more forthright, including Johannes Teyssen, the chief executive of E.ON AG, the utility which is a leading customer of Gazprom and has invested €6-billion ($9.1-billion) in Russian power generation. In a recent interview with Spiegel, Mr. Teyssen said that the company had a 40-year relationship with Russia and the Ukraine political crisis was “no reason for concern.”
> 
> Indeed, Germany is not alone in having developed complex business relationships with Russia. American interests too are exposed, notably those of ExxonMobil which operates one of the largest foreign join ventures in Russia, Sakhalin 1, producing huge volumes of oil in Eastern Siberia. The American oil major hopes to do more, having signed further joint venture agreements with Rosneft, the state oil company.
> 
> Underlying the commercial argy-bargy is something more fundamental, however. There is genuine concern among an older (and some would say wiser) generation of politicians that the aggressive courting of Ukrainian nationalists by Brussels, Ottawa and Washington may be mistaken. German social democrats worry that the nationalist putsch in Kiev was backed heavily by far right and anti-semitic groups. The support in recent years given by Washington to uprisings in North Africa and the Middle East appears in retrospect naive and in some cases clumsy and even disastrous.
> 
> Several weeks after he penned it in the New York Times, the commentary from Henry Kissinger, another Cold War veteran, about the events in Ukraine and the proper response seems apt. He notes that Ukraine has only been independent for 23 years, had been part of Russia for hundreds of years and under some form of foreign occupation since the 14th century. It should never be allowed to join NATO. “Far too often the Ukrainian issue is posed as a showdown: whether Ukraine joins the East or the West,” he wrote. “But if Ukraine is to survive and thrive, it must not be either side’s outpost against the other – it should function as a bridge between them.”
> 
> That is probably what the old Cold Warriors and most sensible people want. From where we are now, it is not clear how we get back to that path.




As for me ~ I'm "elder," after all ~ I'm with Kissinger.


----------



## Kirkhill

And Poland is not much older than Ukraine  (1919 or 1945) .... but neither is Germany  (1871 or 1990).

The only thing is nobody managed to convince the Germans or the Poles they didn't deserve their own country.


----------



## YZT580

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> And Poland is not much older than Ukraine  (1919 or 1945) .... but neither is Germany  (1871 or 1990).
> 
> The only thing is nobody managed to convince the Germans or the Poles they didn't deserve their own country.



Poland has been around longer than France.  It was established as an independent monarchy just before 1000 A.D. and survived until the Russians decided to incorporate it into their empire during the french revolution when everyone else was watching Napoleon.  It was also one of the earliest democracies.  The poles fought back for almost 50 years but didn't regain independence until the end of the first world war.  So it has both a long history of independence and a long history of struggles with Russia.


----------



## Kirkhill

I understand you YZT.

My point was that borders have come and gone but tribes last forever.


----------



## YZT580

speaking of tribes.  The Tartars may have some input to this a little down the line.  They are not happy that Mother Russia has come to the rescue.  They should be able to keep at least a couple of divisions bogged down in Crimea for the next decade or two.


----------



## vonGarvin

YZT580 said:
			
		

> So it has both a long history of independence and a long history of struggles with Russia.


A Pole is walking along the Vistula and finds a lamp.  He polishes it and out comes a genie who grants him three wishes.  
"I wish for the Chinese to invade Poland".  The genie is confused, but grants the wish.  The Chinese army come, invade Poland, and then go home.
"I wish for the Chinese to invade Poland again" is his second wish.  The genie shrugs his shoulders and grants his wish. 
"Once again, I wish for the Chinese to invade Poland," says the Pole.  The genie then speaks up.  "I will grant your wish, but please, tell me, why do you wish for the same thing to happen three times?  Isn't once enough?"
"Oh, no, you don't get it," says the Pole.  "For the Chinese to invade here three times, they have to invade Russia six times: once on the way over, again on the way back, and so on"


So, even though they would suffer, it would be double on Russia.  And I think that this joke is somewhat accurate for the position that Poles have about Russia...


----------



## MilEME09

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/nato-suspends-co-operation-with-russia-orders-plan-to-reinforce-security-1.1755111

*NATO suspends co-operation with Russia, orders plan to reinforce security*



> BRUSSELS, Belgium -- NATO foreign ministers moved Tuesday to beef up the defences of front-line alliance members feeling menaced by a more assertive Russia, with Secretary of State John Kerry proclaiming the U.S. commitment to their security is "unwavering."
> 
> The ministers from NATO's 28 member nations also ordered suspension of all "practical civilian and military co-operation" with Vladimir Putin's Russia, though they made sure a line of communication with the Kremlin remains open at the ambassadorial level.
> 
> The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, keystone of U.S. and European security since the end of World War II, is facing its most acute geopolitical crisis in years: the fallout from Moscow's unilateral annexation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula, which the Obama administration and its allies condemn as a brazen, illegal land grab.
> 
> On Tuesday, an estimated 35,000 to 40,000 Russian troops equipped with tanks, other armoured vehicles and fixed and rotary wing aircraft remained positioned near the border with Ukraine, a NATO military official told The Associated Press, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the information.
> 
> The military official described the Russian buildup as "a complete combat force" that was highly threatening to Ukraine.
> 
> Those troops, and future aggressive moves that Putin's Kremlin may make, have become a troubling concern for NATO countries, especially the alliance's eastern-most members -- the Baltic states, Poland, and Romania, all of which were once in Moscow's orbit.
> 
> To reassure those skittish allies, Kerry told a news conference, the U.S. has already sent six F-15 fighters to perform air patrols over the Baltic, deployed a dozen F-16s to Poland and dispatched the USS Truxtun, a guided-missile destroyer, to the Black Sea.
> 
> "And more U.S. support is on the way," Kerry said.
> 
> At the Tuesday afternoon meeting he attended with the foreign ministers, the secretary said, "more allies pledged their own contributions to make sure every ally from the Baltic to the Black Sea feels secure." He did not provide details.
> 
> A senior U.S. defence official said the U.S. was also likely to send a small team of soldiers to Europe and was encouraging NATO allies to contribute more aircraft to the Baltic air patrol mission.
> 
> Despite annexing Crimea, Putin and other Kremlin officials have said that Russia has no intention of invading other areas of Ukraine. Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu insisted Tuesday the Kremlin wants a "political settlement that would take interests and rights of the entire Ukrainian people into account."
> 
> Meeting behind closed doors, Kerry and his Canadian and European colleagues agreed unanimously on steps NATO must take in response to Russian actions.
> 
> A civilian alliance official who attended the session and briefed reporters afterward on condition of anonymity said the measures include possible deployment and reinforcement of military assets in NATO member countries that feel Moscow's actions may pose a security threat, as well as an increase of readiness levels for NATO rapid response forces. Other steps include a review of NATO's crisis response plans, as well as military training and exercise schedules.
> 
> While NATO ordered the suspension of "all practical civilian and military co-operation" with Russia, Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said later he thought some mutually beneficial co-operation programs with the Russians might continue, such as the project to train anti-narcotics personnel in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia.
> 
> The four-star U.S. Air Force general who is NATO's supreme military commander, Philip Breedlove, has been ordered to devise plans to provide visible reassurance to alliance countries in Central and Eastern Europe that other NATO nations are ready to help protect them "on land, air and at sea," Kerry said.
> 
> America's commitment to NATO's core principle -- that an attack on one alliance member shall be considered an attack on all -- is "unwavering," the secretary said.
> 
> NATO ministers also met Tuesday with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Deshchytisa. Kerry said "they stood together in defence of Ukraine's right to choose its future and in defence of international law." Kerry blasted what he called Russia's "tactics of intimidation, especially deployment of unprecedented forces around Ukraine's borders."
> 
> On Monday, Russia's Defence Ministry said one battalion -- about 500 troops -- had been pulled back, but NATO's secretary general downplayed talk of a major withdrawal.
> 
> "This is not what we have seen," Rasmussen told reporters. "And this massive military buildup can in no way contribute to a de-escalation of the situation -- a de-escalation that we all want to see. So I continue to urge Russia to pull back its troops, live up to its international obligation and engage in a constructive dialogue with Ukraine."
> 
> Deshchytisa, the Ukrainian foreign minister, told a separate news conference that NATO ministers had treated Ukraine's situation with "understanding and support and knowledge."
> 
> His country doesn't need weapons, the Ukrainian official said, but is hoping for "military technical equipment." He said a delegation of experts from NAT0 member countries was expected to visit Kyiv next week for consultations.
> 
> In other developments, Russia sharply hiked the price for natural gas to Ukraine and threatened to reclaim billions in previous discounts, raising the heat on Ukraine's cash-strapped government.
> 
> Alexei Miller, the head of Russia's state-controlled Gazprom natural gas giant, said the company has withdrawn December's discount that put the price of gas at $268.50 per 1,000 cubic meters and set the price Tuesday at $385.50 per 1,000 cubic meters for the second quarter.
> 
> The move is expected to eventually hit Ukrainian consumers hard. Household gas prices in Ukraine are set to rise 50 per cent beginning May 1.
> 
> The Russian discount was part of a financial lifeline that Putin offered Ukraine's now fugitive president, Viktor Yanukovych, after his decision to ditch a pact with the European Union in favour of closer ties with Moscow. The move fueled three months of protests that sent Yanukovych fleeing to Russia in February.
> 
> Also Tuesday, the Russian parliament annulled its deal with Ukraine to rent its Black Sea Fleet's base in Crimea until 2042 for $98 million a year as well as discounts for Russian natural gas.
> 
> In Kyiv, Ukrainian police moved to disarm members of a radical nationalist group after a shooting spree. Such groups played a key role in Yanukovych's ouster, but quickly fell out with the new government in Kyiv. Many activists are still encamped on Kyiv's Independence Square, known as the Maidan, and have signalled their intent to remain until the May 25 presidential election.
> 
> Last week, a leader of the most prominent radical group, the Right Sector, was shot dead while resisting police. Right Sector members then besieged parliament for hours, demanding the resignation of Interior Minister Arsen Avakov. They lifted the blockade after lawmakers set up a panel to investigate the killing.
> 
> Late Monday, a Right Sector member shot and wounded three people outside a restaurant adjacent to Independence Square, triggering a standoff that lasted overnight.
> 
> Police responded by surrounding the Dnipro Hotel, which Right Sector had commandeered as its headquarters, demanding that the radicals lay down their weapons and leave. Avakov said Right Sector members agreed Tuesday to do so.


----------



## CougarKing

Let's see if Putin attempts to take the rest of Eastern Ukraine...

Reuters



> *Russia could achieve Ukraine incursion in 3-5 days: NATO general*
> Reuters
> 
> By Adrian Croft
> 
> BRUSSELS (Reuters) - *Russia has massed all the forces it needs on Ukraine's border if it were to decide to carry out an "incursion" into the country, and it could achieve its objective in three to five days, NATO's top military commander said on Wednesday.
> 
> Calling the situation "incredibly concerning", NATO's supreme allied commander in Europe, U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove, said NATO had spotted signs of movement by a very small part of the Russian force overnight but had no indication that this was part of a withdrawal to barracks.*
> 
> Russia's seizure and annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region has caused the deepest crisis in East-West relations since the Cold War, leading the United States and Europe to impose sanctions on Moscow. They have said they will strengthen these if Russia moves beyond Crimea into eastern Ukraine.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## MacIssac

Two days ago.. 


Number Of Russian Troops On Ukrainian Border Decreases

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/31/russian-troops-ukraine-border_n_5062092.html

KIEV, March 31 (Reuters) - The number of Russian troops deployed on the border with Ukraine is decreasing, a Ukrainian Defense Ministry official said on Monday, but he cautioned that this might not represent a pull-back of forces.

Major-General Oleksandr Rozmaznin told journalists the drop in numbers might reflect a scheduled rotation of conscripts rather than a withdrawal, and he would not confirm the numbers involved.

"The number of soldiers has fallen, but the exact figure is pretty approximate. I can not confirm the number," said Rozmaznin when asked if as many as 10,000 soldiers might have left the border area.

"The number has definitely dropped and it (the situation) has calmed down. We won't rejoice and shout 'Hurray'. It doesn't matter how many of them there are, we just need to make sure our defenses are strong," he said.

Conscripts made up a large part of the Russian army and "a certain number of conscripts could be stood down and swapped for others", Rozmaznin said.

The Russian military build-up on Ukraine's eastern and southern borders, as Russian forces moved into Crimea and Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Moscow reserved the right to defend Russian-speakers in Ukraine, caused alarm in Kiev at the prospect of a broader military invasion.

Russia says the build-up represents military exercises and Russian officials say there are no plans for moving forces across the border into Ukraine's eastern and southern areas where the heaviest concentration of Russian-speakers live.

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry was cautious at reports of a pull-back.

"We have information that the Russian Federation is carrying out unfathomable manoeuvres on the borders with Ukraine - in some border places they are taking away troops, in others they are coming closer," ministry spokesman Evhen Perebiynis said.

"Such action can not fail to cause concern especially since we today do not have a clear explanation from the Russian Federation about the aims of these movements," Perebiynis told journalists.

U.S. officials last Friday said Russia's reinforcement of troops near Ukraine had brought the total forces there to as many as 40,000, though European sources have been estimating lower numbers at around 30,000.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said, after talks with Russian Foreign Ministry Sergei Lavrov on Sunday in Paris, that progress on resolving the crisis over the Russian annexation of Crimea depended on a Russian troop pull-back from Ukraine's borders.

Although Moscow says the buildup is part of military exercises, it has also been pressing diplomatically for Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine to be given greater autonomy and for the Russian language to be upgraded to the status of a state language in Ukraine. (Reporting by Natalia Zinets and Pavel Polityuk; Writing by Alessandra Prentice and Richard Balmforth; Editing by Alison Williams)


----------



## vonGarvin

There seems to be a lot of speculation in both of those articles.  All we know for certain is the following:

1.  Russia continues to border Ukraine.
2.  Russia continues to have a standing army.


That is all.


----------



## The Bread Guy

As the UKR military pulls its forces out of Crimea, it seems some sorting out of bank cards is in order (Google translation in quote box, highlights mine - original from Ukrainian MoD here or screen capture attached):


> On this day, March 31, during a briefing at the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine Deputy Chief of the Armed Forces Command Center Ukraine Maj. Gen. Alexander Rozmaznin.
> 
> He said the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine continues to negotiate with Russia to withdraw Ukrainian troops together with the technique of time-occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea.
> 
> - This week is outstanding in terms of the final determination of the schedule of withdrawal of our troops temporarily-occupied territory - said Maj. Gen. Alexander Rozmaznin.
> 
> Also, *a representative of the General Staff said that at present there is a problem with the financial support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, still in the Crimea.
> 
> - Unfortunately , payroll cards , which we transferred funds for our troops , not activated in the Crimea - he said . - However, the Ministry of Defence and have a situation "with activists and concerned citizens " small amounts of money in cash equivalents were sent to our servicemen.
> 
> - We are working to problems that arise are resolved soon - said Deputy Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine command center* ....


Hi, I'm from Kiev, and I'm here to help you  ;D


----------



## CougarKing

Technoviking said:
			
		

> There seems to be a lot of speculation in both of those articles.  All we know for certain is the following:
> 
> 1.  Russia continues to border Ukraine.
> 2.  Russia continues to have a standing army.
> *3. Russia has concentrated a portion of that standing army- 100,000 troops- on that border with Ukraine. *
> 
> That is all.



There, fixed that for you. 

 ;D


----------



## Kirkhill

Capability - 100,000 troops = taking Ukraine in 3 - 5 days
Intent - Unknown

Standing Down troops but leaving Logistics in Place ..... Add 2 to 3 days for troops to fall back in on kit.

Next question:  Who has Vlad's attention now?  Pollsters, Oligarchs, Bankers, or Chinese?  Pretty sure it isn't Washington or Brussels.


----------



## The Bread Guy

And in the "Hindsight being 20-20" category ....


> *Ukraine's ousted president, Viktor Yanukovych, said Wednesday that he was "wrong" to invite Russian troops into Crimea, and vowed to try to persuade Russia to return the Black Sea peninsula.*
> 
> In his first interview since fleeing to Russia in February, Yanukovych told The Associated Press and Russia's state NTV television that he still hopes to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin to get back the coveted region.
> 
> Russia annexed Crimea last month following a hastily called referendum held after Russian troops took control of the region. Ukraine and the West have rejected the move as illegal.
> 
> "Crimea is a tragedy, a major tragedy," Yanukovych told The AP, insisting that Russia's takeover of Crimea wouldn't have happened if he had stayed in power. He fled Ukraine after three months of anti-government protests against his rule ....


Let us know how that "negotiating with Russia to get Crimea back to Urkraine" works out for you.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Could this be why Yanukovych is trying to share his "really, I thought I was doing the right thing by asking the Russians to help" messaging?


> Top Ukrainian officials have insinuated that Russian security services had a hand in the violence that led to more than 100 deaths in Kiev last month, as Moscow claimed 25 Ukrainians had planned terror attacks in Russia last month and had been detained.
> 
> At a press conference in Kiev, Arsen Avakov, Ukraine's interim interior minister, claimed his predecessor Vitali Zakharchenko, who is currently on the run, was directly involved in giving orders to shoot at protesters, along with the SBU security services. He said a dozen Ukrainian police officers had been detained on suspicion of carrying out the shooting.
> 
> Valentyn Nalivaichenko, the new head of the SBU, added that a number of officers from Russia's FSB had been consulting with the SBU in Kiev in December and January, and that Russian citizens were present at SBU headquarters.
> 
> He also claimed that explosives and weapons were delivered to Ukraine from Russia during the protest period, including on the day of the bloodiest violence, 20 February ....


How's your Ukrainian?  SBU's original statement on this one is attached.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the border, from ITAR-TASS ....


> Russian secret services have detained 25 citizens of Ukraine on suspicion of preparing subversive acts on the territory of Russia, the Moscow-base NTV channel said.
> 
> “According to the information from the secret services, the terrorist acts were due to take place from March 14 through to March 16 in the Rostov, Volgograd, Tver, Oryol, and Belgorod regions, as well as in the constituent republic of Kalmykia and Tatarstan,” the report said.
> 
> “A total of twenty-five persons including three activists of the Right Sector (Ukraine’s ultra-rightwing radical organization - Itar-Tass) were detained,” NTV said. “They admitted they had been receiving instructions from Ukraine’s Security Service.”
> 
> The scope of their tasks believably included gathering the data on redeployments of army vehicles in the parts of Russia adjoining the border with Ukraine and establishing contacts with radical organizations in Russia, the report said ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Apart from the humanitarian implications of sharing MRE's with the Ukrainians, this Twitter weisenheimer seems to have summed it up well:
> 
> According to the Ukrainian MoD (original in Ukrainian), the rations made it there - funny how the Yanks look happier to be handing them off than the Ukrainians are to be taking them  >


Well, well, well .... - highlights mine ....


> *The Central Directorate of Military Cooperation and Peacekeeping Operations of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine denied information spread in some mass media concerning resale of MRE rations.
> 
> On March 29, 2014, 300,000 MRE rations arrived to Ukraine be vehicles and after customs procedures they will be directed to military units.*
> 
> “U.S. rations will be supplied to military units after customs procedures. *Tomorrow the Ministry of Social Policy will consider the possibility to replace the status of cargo from military technical aid’ to ‘humanitarian aid’,” announced Central Directorate of Military Cooperation and Peacekeeping Operations.*


Fingers of death for everyone!


----------



## McG

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/nato-suspends-co-operation-with-russia-orders-plan-to-reinforce-security-1.1755111
> 
> *NATO suspends co-operation with Russia, orders plan to reinforce security*


Oh good.  Strong, timely sabre rattling from NATO.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, Ukrainian military fundraising continues apace ....


> *‘Support Ukrainian Army’ Campaign: MoD of Ukraine received over UAH 80 mln.*
> 
> Friday, April 4. KYIV – As of April 3 within the ‘Support Ukrainian Army’ Campaign the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine received over UAH 80 mln. (~CDN $ 8 million) from legal and physical entities.
> 
> UAH 76 mln. 577 thousand (~CDN $7.7 million) – for logistic support, the rest – for medical support of the Ukrainian Armed Force.
> 
> Via ‘565’: UAH 20 mln. 963 thousand (~CDN $2.1 million) (for logistic support).
> 
> In addition, MoD has received US$ 25,100 and €27,400.
> 
> Ministry of Defense, Armed Forces of Ukraine thank all persons joining this campaign.


Ukrainian MoD Info-machine, 4 Apr 14 (official English version)



> Today, April 4, when the Ukrainian army needs the support of those it protects, "Retro FM" opens the collection of medicinal products for "First-aid" units.
> 
> When there is a first aid kit on hand - you feel calmer and more confident, because the cases are different. Especially if you - the soldier.
> 
> Disinfecting and painkillers, antibiotics, simple bandages, cotton wool, iodine - all this will help our soldiers to be in service in the truest sense of the word. And everyone can help!
> 
> Medicines taken April 4 at
> 
> 04080, Kyiv, str. Frunze, 104a
> 
> Retro FM Ukraine
> 
> More information about the event online www.retrofm.ua .
> 
> In a healthy body - healthy competitive spirit!
> 
> Support the troops, help Ukrainian Army!


Ukrainian MoD Info-machine, 4 Apr 14 (Ukrainian - Google English)

Anyone willing to help crowdsource support some Ukrainian paras?


> 287 Nicholas paratroopers that are currently in Chongar - professionals and patriots really worthy sons of the Ukrainian people. Today they have the moral and material support solely on civilians from all over Ukraine. Now they have enough food and fuel, but most lack the ammunition. Unfortunately, we can not expect improvements from politicians or generals.
> 
> In this connection will be established People's commando battalion. Our paratroopers are provided naysuchashnishym military equipment ....


http://narodniy.org.ua/ (Ukrainian) - Google English translation


----------



## The Bread Guy

The "blessing of the kit" continues around Ukraine (no, I'm not making this up):  
_"Metropolitan on the West-North of #Ukraine blessed armament for Ukrainian #Army"_






In related news, *"Ukrainian Orthodox Church Kiev Patriarchate transferred to the account of the Ministry of Defence 500 thousand (~CDN $50,000) to support the Armed Forces" * (Ukrainian - Google English)


----------



## vonGarvin

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> The "blessing of the kit" continues around Ukraine (no, I'm not making this up):


Why did you feel it necessary to say that you weren't making this up? Is it something to be mocked?


----------



## YZT580

When the shells start flying even the most diehard atheist cries out "oh God".  With so little going for them vis-a-vis their opposition a little bit of help from on high would probably be very welcome.


----------



## Kirkhill

The only appropriate response to TV and YZT is, without irony, "Amen".

And why do I feel it necessary to qualify my statement? ...The times in which we live.

In 1939 the Poles made an impression by facing tanks with horses.  The Ukrainians appear to be in considerably poorer condition.

Somebody would appear to have done an excellent job of disarming a country with a thriving weapons industry....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Technoviking said:
			
		

> Why did you feel it necessary to say that you weren't making this up? Is it something to be mocked?


Sincere apologies for the misplaced tone - not meant to mock or disrespect at all.  Just sharing some Eastern religious traditions, as well as the church's contribution to the still-fundraising Ukrainian military.


			
				YZT580 said:
			
		

> When the shells start flying even the most diehard atheist cries out "oh God".  With so little going for them vis-a-vis their opposition a little bit of help from on high would probably be very welcome.





			
				Kirkhill said:
			
		

> The only appropriate response to TV and YZT is, without irony, "Amen".


Agreed.
P.S. - This isn't just done on the Ukrainian side - this appears to be the blessing of the ships on the Russian side:




_"In the main naval base of the Baltic Fleet (BF) Baltiysk solemn ceremony of consecration and transmission crews large amphibious ships (BDK) "King" and "Alexander Shabalin" marching Orthodox churches.  The ceremony was attended by representatives of the command BF, Kaliningrad diocese, crews, relatives and friends of sailors, command representatives Connection amphibious ships ...."_ (Russian MoD, in Russian and Google Translation)


----------



## larry Strong

We do the same thing with our colours...........






Larry


----------



## Edward Campbell

We are not above this sort of thing.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Larry Strong said:
			
		

> We do the same thing with our colours...........
> 
> Larry





			
				E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> We are not above this sort of thing.


I know about colours, but I haven't heard of specific ceremonies linked to hardware in our military - unless any Senior Service® types can straighten me out/educate me about religious rituals linked to ships.


----------



## Robert0288

Oh Lord, 
Please protect this LSVW from spontaneously bursting into flames and entering the hell in which it belongs.
May the breaks not fail and wheels not pop.
And the fuel tank not fall out the bottom.

... until after I exit the vehicle.
Amen.


----------



## The Bread Guy

The east heating up?


> Crowds of pro-Russian demonstrators stormed government buildings Sunday in several major cities in eastern Ukraine, where secessionist sentiment has sparked frequent protests since Ukraine's Russia-friendly president was ousted in February.
> 
> In Donetsk, 80 kilometers (50 miles) west of the Russian border, a large group of people, including many in masks carrying sticks and stones, surged into the provincial government building and smashed windows.
> 
> A gathering of several hundred, many of them waving Russian flags, then listened to speeches delivered from a balcony emblazoned with a banner reading "Donetsk Republic." Activists in the building said they want to see a referendum for the Donetsk province to join Russia.
> 
> An AP photographer reported seeing people bringing car tires to be used as barricades against any presumed attempt by authorities to retake the building ....


What a Donetsk gov't building looks like ....




.... and some more Russian airborne forces fans elsewhere in the east:


----------



## CombatMacguyver

YZT580 said:
			
		

> When the shells start flying even the most diehard atheist cries out "oh God".



I hate that saying.  

That's got nothing to do with a sudden epiphanic belief in a diety and everything to do with it being an extremely common cultural figure of speech.  

Don't imply that I merely need some traumatic event to begin believing in your God.


----------



## midget-boyd91

CombatMacguyver said:
			
		

> I hate that saying.
> 
> That's got nothing to do with a sudden epiphanic belief in a diety and everything to do with it being an extremely common cultural figure of speech.
> 
> Don't imply that I merely need some traumatic event to begin believing in your God.



Like you said, it's a figure of speech.  If you recognize that, then there's little reason to 'hate' that figure of speech for what it is... and no reason for you to infer that anyone is trying to make you believe that a traumatic event is what is needed to have belief (or disbelief) in God.
It is afterall just a figure of speech.


----------



## Journeyman

CombatMacguyver said:
			
		

> Don't imply that I merely need some traumatic event to begin believing in your God.



        :nod:


----------



## McG

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> The east heating up?


I would say the seeds are laid for the next stage of "not Russian" invasion.

Ethnic Russians seize government buildings.  On one side there are accusations of minority mistreatment, and the other side is accusing Putin to be supporting the new protestors.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/04/06/russian-flag-raised-over-seized-government-buildings-in-ukraine-as-protesters-call-for-more-referendums/


----------



## vonGarvin

MCG said:
			
		

> I would say the seeds are laid for the next stage of "NotRussian" invasion.
> 
> Ethnic Russians seize government buildings.  On one side there are accusations of minority mistreatment, and the other side is accusing Putin to be supporting the new protestors.
> 
> http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/04/06/russian-flag-raised-over-seized-government-buildings-in-ukraine-as-protesters-call-for-more-referendums/



There, remember, it's "Not Russian", not "not Russian".....


----------



## vonGarvin

YZT580 said:
			
		

> When the shells start flying even the most diehard atheist cries out "oh God".


I think you're thinking of the fake orgasms in porns....


----------



## vonGarvin

As for invoking Divine blessings, the Ukrainians aren't alone:


----------



## The Bread Guy

Technoviking said:
			
		

> There, remember, it's "Not Russian", not "not Russian".....


Good one - milpoints inbound!


----------



## a_majoor

MCG said:
			
		

> I would say the seeds are laid for the next stage of "not Russian" invasion.
> 
> Ethnic Russians seize government buildings.  On one side there are accusations of minority mistreatment, and the other side is accusing Putin to be supporting the new protestors.
> 
> http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/04/06/russian-flag-raised-over-seized-government-buildings-in-ukraine-as-protesters-call-for-more-referendums/



Even if Ukraine is fully partitioned along the Dneiper river, the "not Russians" on the west are culturally more European than the "Not Russians" on the east, so the remaining part of Ukraine will more likely become more successful, wealthier and vibrant compared to the part east of the Dneiper. Grabbing an anchor isn't always the best COA, especially in the long term.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MCG said:
			
		

> I would say the seeds are laid for the next stage of "not Russian" invasion.
> 
> Ethnic Russians seize government buildings.  On one side there are accusations of minority mistreatment, and the other side is accusing Putin to be supporting the new protestors.
> 
> http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/04/06/russian-flag-raised-over-seized-government-buildings-in-ukraine-as-protesters-call-for-more-referendums/


And the next parts of the script unfold ....


> *Donetsk region People’s Council established by local pro-federalization demonstrators on Monday declared its plans to create the republic of Donetsk and join Russia if people so vote during the referendum which is due to take place no later than May 11*, RIA Novosti correspondent reported Monday.
> 
> "People's Republic of Donetsk is to be created within the administrative borders of Donetsk region. This decision shall enter into force immediately after the referendum," one of the leaders of Donetsk People's council said at a meeting in the building of regional administration Monday.
> 
> A group of protesters pushing for broader regional autonomy stormed government buildings in Donetsk, Lugansk and Kharkov in eastern Ukraine on Sunday, according to local media reports.
> 
> Nearly 3,000 people reportedly took control of the national bank’s building in Lugansk. Demonstrators flooded the streets in the city, waving Russian flags and chanting “Russia! Russia!” ....


RIA Novosti (Russian government information agency), 7 Apr 14



> *The council of recently proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic turned to the Russian president, asking him to introduce a temporary peacekeeping contingent.*
> 
> The lawmakers unanimously supported the address of the Republican Council of the Donetsk People’s Republic.
> 
> Earlier, the deputies of the Donetsk regional council proclaimed the state sovereignty of the Donetsk People’s Republic. The corresponding bill was read at the council’s session ....


ITAR-TASS (main Russian Government information agency), 7 Apr 14


----------



## The Bread Guy

This, from Vladimir Putin, speaking to intelligence/security officials ....


> .... Russia’s laws today give us the conditions we need for non-governmental and public organisations to work freely and transparently. But we will never accept for them to be used for destructive purposes. We will not accept a situation such as happened in Ukraine, when in many cases it was through non-governmental organisations that the nationalist and neo-Nazi groups and militants, who became the shock troops in the anti-constitutional coup d’état, received funding from abroad.
> 
> I ask you to pay attention too, to setting up the FSB’s branches in the new Russian Federation constituent entities of Crimea and Sevastopol. Their tasks will include making sure that people with a criminal past and advocates of various radical and extremist movements – people who want to prevent the region’s normal development, in other words - do not burrow their way into government bodies there ....


Is this, in the words of one analyst blog ....


> .... The Russian government appears to be saying now that the entire leadership in Kiev is illegitimate, that it is supported by non-government organizations and foreign backers who destabilized the country, and that it represents, or at least mirrors, the kinds of existential threats that the FSB is tasked with defeating.
> 
> Is Russia now making the next stage of a rhetorical argument for invading eastern Ukraine?



Meanwhile, Wikipedia already has a "Donetsk People's Republic" page up & running (for now, anyway).


----------



## Journeyman

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Meanwhile, Wikipedia already has a "Donetsk People's Republic" page up & running (for now, anyway).


The page's history sure is a whole bunch of "updated" then "revision deleted" -- some kids aren't playing well.   ;D


----------



## The Bread Guy

Journeyman said:
			
		

> The page's history sure is a whole bunch of "updated" then "revision deleted" -- some kids aren't playing well.   ;D


As can happen with some "disputed" places  ;D


----------



## The Bread Guy

Interesting statement out of Russia on calls for "temporary peacekeepers" in Donetsk ....


> *The head of the Defense Committee of the Federation Council excludes the deployment of Russian peacekeepers in the east of Ukraine without an adequate decision from the Security Council of the United Nations.*
> 
> Russian peacekeepers can be deployed into the territory of another state only in the framework of existing international norms, but not at the request of local authorities, the head of the Committee on Defense and Security of the Federation Council, Viktor Ozerov said, commenting on the address from the Donetsk People's Council to deploy a Russian peacekeeping contingent in the Donetsk region of Ukraine.
> 
> "Russian peacekeepers can act only within the framework of international legal norms. We had examples of the deployment of peacekeeping forces on the territory of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, but it all was within the framework of the CIS. Deploying peacekeepers at the request of local authorities in Donetsk or somewhere else is contrary to international norms and principles," Interfax quoted Ozerov as saying.
> 
> "Russia does not have the right to do it single-handedly. However, if the UN Security Council decides to deploy peacekeepers there, then Russia, being a permanent member of the Security Council and a member of the Agreement on Cooperation and Security in Europe, can join the peacekeeping contingent to provide security in this or that region," said the official.


Pravda Russia, 7 Apr 14

And a little reminder, care of this ITAR-TASS story:


> .... March 1, 2014, Russia’s Federation Council gave its consent to the president for using the armed forces on the territory of Ukraine. The relevant decision was unanimously adopted by the upper house of Russian parliament at an extraordinary session. Earlier, Vladimir Putin submitted to the Federation Council an address on using the armed forces of Russia on the territory of Ukraine until the normalization of the socio-political situation in that country. This initiative was proposed with regard to a plea by Ukraine’s legitimate president Viktor Yanukovych ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some of the latest:

UKR launches "anti-terror" ops against occupied buildings in E. UKR (European Commission news aggregator)
Ukrainian military fundraising continues apace (~CDN $8.8 million collected to date) (Ukrainian MoD)
_"Russia's Foreign Ministry on Tuesday warned Kiev that amassing troops in eastern Ukraine has the potential to "unleash civil war," ...."_ (Moscow Times - daily English paper owned by Finnish company Independent Media)
Put another way, _"Russia urges Ukraine to halt military preparations to avert civil war"_ ITAR-TASS (main Russian Government information agency)
Russia's Foreign Minister is calling for reps from south, eastern UKR to be at the table (as well as Europe) for talks on Ukraine (ITAR-TASS)


----------



## Journeyman

From Stratfor (their copyright)


> *NATO Increases Baltic Air Cover*
> April 8, 2014
> 
> Summary
> Lacking the capability to secure their sovereign airspace, the Baltic states have long relied upon NATO members to provide assistance and support. As Russia continues to assert itself across its Western periphery, the issue of collective defense has become compelling for many former Soviet states. For countries such as Bulgaria, which can only respond to airspace incursions with a small number of aging aircraft, a mission like the Baltic air patrol would solve many problems.


Now that it's evident Russia has no present designs on the Baltic nations, NATO moves in.  You go, NATO!


.....or as Lew MacKenzie said in NATO: The multiple-choice alliance, "All the West’s rhetoric about Ukraine is meaningless, because Russia knows NATO is incapable of taking on any high-risk intervention – _anywhere_."


----------



## McG

I see John Kerry is making new warnings for Russia not to destabilize things farther ... I suppose this Monty Python warning techniques.

With the Ukrainian parliament devolving into fistfights, some merit seems to be given to Russia's predictions of civil war possibilities.  Of course, one could speculate that the Russian warning to avoid a Ukrainian military build-up in the east is really about minimizing resistance and potential casualties that might face a "Not Russian" invasion.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MCG said:
			
		

> Of course, one could speculate that the Russian warning to avoid a Ukrainian military build-up in the east is really about minimizing resistance and potential casualties that might face a "Not Russian" invasion.


Or, if one were truly cynical and believed Russia's hand is behind the unrest, it could be seen as blaming the victim.

Meanwhile, at least some of the alternative media is siding with Russia/against Ukraine:


> Thousands of Eastern Ukrainians reject Kiev putschists. Perhaps millions. They want local sovereignty. They want autonomy rights.
> 
> They want them respected. They reject fascist rule. They demand their own referendum. They want Ukraine federalized.
> 
> Protests continue in Kharkov (Ukraine's second largest city), Donetsk (its largest industrial city), Dnepropetrovsk, Lugansk, Odessa, Nikolayev and elsewhere.
> 
> They're growing. They're spreading. They have legs. Maybe parts of Western Ukraine will join them.
> 
> Ukrainians are long-suffering. They rejected Orange Revolution rule years earlier. Perhaps Orange Revolution 2.0 won't fare better. It remains to be seen what happens going forward.
> 
> Will Eastern Ukrainian resistance spread? Will it do so nationwide? Will Ukrainians overwhelmingly reject fascist/predatory IMF rule? Will they demand equitable change?
> 
> Will they protests en masse like before? Will they sustain it long enough to matter? Will they refuse what demands rejection?
> 
> Eastern Ukrainians reacted first. On April 7, RT International headlined "Pro-Russian protesters seize govt buildings in Ukraine's Donetsk, Lugansk and Kharkov."  ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

1)  RUMINT:  This guy is predicting a Russian invasion within hours .....


> We, the group "Information Resistance," have received from our reliable sources the satisfactory confirmation of the statement of Ukrainian Foreign Ministry that the observed activity of the separatists in eastern Ukraine which has been lasting for the last three days is nothing but the beginning of the second phase of the scenario for the Russian invasion in our country.
> 
> In particular, according to our information, the separatist leaders, who follow the plan of General Headquarters of Russian Armed Forces, have been given the instructions to organize a "corridor" through the state border of Ukraine for passage of the convoys of military equipment from the Russian territory at the night of April 8-9.
> 
> Separatists also have received the orders to organize provocations with the casualties in the cities of the region which could be interpreted by the Russian side as "terror against the people organized by Ukrainian authorities."
> 
> In addition, the coordinators of Russian Directorate General of Intelligence of General Headquarters of Russian Armed Forces, who work in the region, have instructed the separatists to use gunfire weapon in case the attempts to liberate the occupied administrative buildings are taken.
> 
> According to our information, Ukrainian law enforcement agencies and special services are now taking the necessary measures to block the groups of the separatists.
> 
> State Border Service and the Armed Forces of Ukraine are carrying out the activities on blocking and defense of the state border in the respective areas.


I only include this because a few MSM outlets are also reporting the prediction.  Here's a bit more about him from a Ukrainian paper he sometimes writes for:


> Editor's Note: To counter Russian propaganda lies about the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine's Crimean peninsula on Feb. 27, Dmitry Tymchuk has set up the Center of Military and Political Research in Kyiv. He served in the Army air defense from 1995-1998, the National Guard from 1998-2000 and in the Defense Ministry in subsequent years on missions to Iraq, Lebanon and Kosovo. His blogs are translated into English by Voices of Ukraine. The Kyiv Post has not independently verified his findings, but will correct any misinformation brought to our attention at news@kyivpost.com or 38-044-591-3344 or any of our contacts at www.kyivpost.com/contacts.


I guess we'll soon see just how right (or not) this guy is.

1)  RUS acccuses UKR of using American "mercenaries" ....


> The Russian government today claimed there are more than 100 American “mercenaries” from a defense contracting company disguised as Ukrainian troops in the embattled former Soviet nation, a claim the American firm and top U.S. officials deny.
> 
> The Russian Foreign Ministry made the allegation in a statement today that accused Ukrainian military forces of working with “illegal armed militias” and others, saying the ministry is “especially concerned” about the involvement of 150 American mercenaries from the private company Greystone Ltd., a former affiliate of Blackwater ....


Here's the Russian MFA statement in Russian


----------



## The Bread Guy

From the "Turnabout's Fair Play" department (loving the headline), this from Voice of Russia (state-run external service, broadcasts in English and other languages):


> *NATO threatens to deprive Scotland of 'nuclear umbrella' if it votes for independence*
> 
> Former NATO Secretary-General Lord Robertson has said in Washington that Scotland’s independence would prove a world-scale disaster and create huge problems, especially because of the current geopolitical instability. He urged the United States to energetically come out against it. Scotland is due to hold a referendum on its independence on September 18th.
> 
> Robertson's visit to the United States is in line with what has recently become a general trend. After the events in Crimea and Ukraine and after Washington offered its support for the Maidan-approved neo-Nazi Cabinet in Kiev, those opposed to any self-determination clearly prefer staying in the immediate vicinity of the White House.
> 
> Lord Robertson, who is a Scot and former UK Defence Secretary, was NATO Chief from 1999 to 2003. According to a Scottish politician, a person who headed NATO albeit once is genetically modified for the rest of their life.
> 
> The Briton's statement prompted immediate reactions from quick-tempered Celts. Deputy First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon referred to his words as insulting and shocking. She says she is not surprised at all by what Lord Robertson said, since he has always been a most belligerent and vociferous opponent of Scotland's independence.
> 
> She points out that claiming that independence would become a disaster for Scotland and would serve to destabilize the West is beyond the framework of commonsense and reasonable debating. She says she believes that many people would find such words to be insulting ....


----------



## McG

John Kerry is now accusing Russia of manipulating the situation in the Ukraine through special forces, provocateurs and “agents” sent to send the country into chaos.  He has a lot of good little sound bites for this:  “create a contrived crisis with paid operatives across an international boundary.”


----------



## The Bread Guy

MCG said:
			
		

> John Kerry is now accusing Russia of manipulating the situation in the Ukraine through special forces, provocateurs and “agents” sent to send the country into chaos.  He has a lot of good little sound bites for this:  “create a contrived crisis with paid operatives across an international boundary.”


Good one!  Also joining the chorus now is our Foreign Affairs Minister:


> Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird today issued the following statement:
> 
> “Canada strongly condemns the agents provocateurs that are fomenting unrest in the three Ukrainian oblasts of Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk.
> 
> "Canada calls for calm and for Ukraine’s territorial integrity to be respected. Russia must not interfere in the affairs of a sovereign state.
> 
> “Russia’s continued provocative actions in Crimea and elsewhere are completely unacceptable.
> 
> “If this pattern persists, Russia will continue to face increased isolation from the international community and suffer further serious consequences as a result of its actions.”


----------



## Privateer

The current situation with Russia renews my fury at the actions of Paul Delisle.  Who knows what stolen intelligence may be benefiting Russia in the current situation?


----------



## vonGarvin

So, outrage at the agents provacateurs in the east, but what of those in the west?


Anyway, no matter.  The cold war is back ON.


It's on, like Donkey Kong!!!!


----------



## Robert0288

Does that mean we get all that cold war cash now?


----------



## Kirkhill

Technoviking said:
			
		

> So, outrage at the agents provacateurs in the east, but what of those in the west?
> 
> 
> Anyway, no matter.  The cold war is back ON.
> 
> 
> It's on, like Donkey Kong!!!!



The Great Game was never OFF.


----------



## vonGarvin

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> The Great Game was never OFF.



True, but we declared victory in the Cold War (though The Game was on, even though the current President of the USA said to his opponent about Russia that "...the 1980s called and they want their foreign policy back....")


----------



## Kirkhill

Technoviking said:
			
		

> True, but we declared victory in the Cold War (though The Game was on, even though the current President of the USA said to his opponent about Russia that "...the 1980s called and they want their foreign policy back....")



More fool him..... and us for letting him think that.


----------



## vonGarvin

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> More fool him..... and us for letting him think that.


Don't blame me, I didn't vote for him


----------



## Infanteer

Technoviking said:
			
		

> So, outrage at the agents provacateurs in the east, but what of those in the west?
> 
> 
> Anyway, no matter.  The cold war is back ON.
> 
> 
> It's on, like Donkey Kong!!!!



Whew, now we can put all those Afghan vet guys in the corner of the mess where they belong!


----------



## vonGarvin

Infanteer said:
			
		

> Whew, now we can put all those Afghan vet guys in the corner of the mess where they belong!



And get cool-looking jets again!


----------



## Kirkhill

Cool jets indeed.

But why are the Village People standing in front?


----------



## GAP

By coincidence, I clicked on the Military Channel tonight. I thought I was watching a documentary of the Crimea issue, hmpt......


it was the methods and sequence of how Hitler absorbed the countries around him.....identical... :


----------



## vonGarvin

Posted without further comment:
http://www.aco.nato.int/imagery-reveals-destabilizing-russian-forces-near-ukraine-border-nato-plans-balanced-response-to-reassure-allies.aspx


----------



## OldSolduer

Technoviking said:
			
		

> So, outrage at the agents provacateurs in the east, but what of those in the west?
> 
> 
> Anyway, no matter.  The cold war is back ON.
> 
> 
> It's on, like Donkey Kong!!!!



Thank heavens for small miracles. I, like NATO, have been looking for a purpose since 1991.


----------



## McG

Russia's voting privileges have now been revoked in the European Parliament:  
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/Russian+delegation+boycotts+European+assembly+Moscow+faces/9722843/story.html


----------



## The Bread Guy

And the gas card is played ....


> President Vladimir Putin warned European leaders on Thursday Russia would cut natural gas supplies to Ukraine if it did not pay its bills and said this could lead to a reduction of onward deliveries to Europe.
> 
> In a letter to the leaders of 18 countries, he demanded urgent talks with Europe on pulling Ukraine's economy out of crisis but made clear his patience was running out over Kiev's $2.2 billion gas debt to its former Soviet master.
> 
> His comments were Russia's most explicit threat to cut off gas to Ukraine, a move that could worsen a dispute over Moscow's annexation of Crimea that has resulted in the worst East-West crisis since the end of the Cold war in 1991.
> 
> "...Gazprom is compelled to switch over to advance payment for gas deliveries and, in the event of further violation of the conditions of payment, will completely or partially cease gas deliveries," Putin said in the letter, sent to European leaders including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose country is the largest consumer of Russian gas in the 28-nation EU ....


Here's the ITAR-TASS text of President Putin's letter (screen capture of official text also attached):


> Ukraine’s economy in the past several months has been plummeting. Its industrial and construction sectors have also been declining sharply. Its budget deficit is mounting. The condition of its currency system is becoming more and more deplorable. The negative trade balance is accompanied by the flight of capital from the country. Ukraine’s economy is steadfastly heading towards a default, a halt in production and skyrocketing unemployment.
> 
> Russia and the EU member states are Ukraine’s major trading partners. Proceeding from this, at the Russia-EU Summit at the end of January, we came to an agreement with our European partners to hold consultations on the subject of developing Ukraine’s economy, bearing in mind the interests of Ukraine and our countries while forming integration alliances with Ukraine’s participation. However, all attempts on Russia’s part to begin real consultations failed to produce any results.
> 
> Instead of consultations, we hear appeals to lower contractual prices on Russian natural gas – prices which are allegedly of a “political” nature. One gets the impression that the European partners want to unilaterally blame Russia for the consequences of Ukraine’s economic crisis.
> 
> Right from day one of Ukraine’s existence as an independent state, Russia has supported the stability of the Ukrainian economy by supplying it with natural gas at cut-rate prices. In January 2009, with the participation of the then-premier Yulia Tymoshenko, a purchase-and-sale contract on supplying natural gas for the period of 2009-2019 was signed. The contract regulated questions concerning the delivery of and payment for the product, and it also provided guarantees for its uninterrupted transit through the territory of Ukraine. What is more, Russia has been fulfilling the contract according to the letter and spirit of the document. Incidentally, Ukrainian Minister of Fuel and Energy at that time was Yuriy Prodan, who today holds a similar post in Kiev’s government.
> 
> The total volume of natural gas delivered to Ukraine, as stipulated in the contract during the period of 2009-2014 (first quarter), stands at 147.2 billion cubic meters. Here, I would like to emphasize that the price formula that had been set down in the contract had NOT been altered since that moment. And Ukraine, right up till August 2013, made regular payments for the natural gas in accordance with that formula.
> 
> However, the fact that after signing that contract, Russia granted Ukraine a whole string of unprecedented privileges and discounts on the price of natural gas, is quite another matter. This applies to the discount stemming from the 2010 Kharkiv Agreement, which was provided as advance payment for the future lease payments for the presence of the (Russian) Black Sea Fleet after 2017. This also refers to discounts on the prices for natural gas purchased by Ukraine’s chemical companies. This also concerns the discount granted in December 2013 for the duration of three months due to the critical state of Ukraine’s economy. Beginning with 2009, the total sum of these discounts stands at 17 billion US dollars. To this, we should add another 18.4 billion US dollars incurred by the Ukrainian side as a minimal take-or-pay fine.
> 
> In this manner, during the past four years, Russia has been subsidizing Ukraine’s economy by offering slashed natural gas prices worth 35.4 billion US dollars. In addition, in December 2013, Russia granted Ukraine a loan of 3 billion US dollars. These very significant sums were directed towards maintaining the stability and creditability of the Ukrainian economy and preservation of jobs. No other country provided such support except Russia.
> 
> What about the European partners? Instead of offering Ukraine real support, there is talk about a declaration of intent. There are only promises that are not backed by any real actions. The European Union is using Ukraine’s economy as a source of raw foodstuffs, metal and mineral resources, and at the same time, as a market for selling its highly-processed ready-made commodities (machine engineering and chemicals), thereby creating a deficit in Ukraine’s trade balance amounting to more than 10 billion US dollars. This comes to almost two-thirds of Ukraine’s overall deficit for 2013.
> 
> To a large extent, the crisis in Ukraine’s economy has been precipitated by the unbalanced trade with the EU member states, and this, in turn has had a sharply negative impact on Ukraine’s fulfillment of its contractual obligations to pay for deliveries of natural gas supplied by Russia. Gazprom neither has intentions except for those stipulated in the 2009 contract nor plans to set any additional conditions. This also concerns the contractual price for natural gas, which is calculated in strict accordance with the agreed formula. However, Russia cannot and should not unilaterally bear the burden of supporting Ukraine’s economy by way of providing discounts and forgiving debts, and in fact, using these subsidies to cover Ukraine’s deficit in its trade with the EU member states.
> 
> The debt of NAK Naftogaz Ukraine for delivered gas has been growing monthly this year. In November-December 2013 this debt stood at 1.451,5 billion US dollars; in February 2014 it increased by a further 260.3 million and in March by another 526.1 million US dollars. Here I would like to draw your attention to the fact that in March there was still a discount price applied, i.e., 268.5 US dollars per 1,000 cubic meters of gas. And even at that price, Ukraine did not pay a single dollar.
> 
> In such conditions, in accordance with Articles 5.15, 5.8 and 5.3 of the contract, Gazprom is compelled to switch over to advance payment for gas delivery, and in the event of further violation of the conditions of payment, will completely or partially cease gas deliveries. In other words, only the volume of natural gas will be delivered to Ukraine as was paid for one month in advance of delivery.
> 
> Undoubtedly, this is an extreme measure. We fully realize that this increases the risk of siphoning off natural gas passing through Ukraine’s territory and heading to European consumers. We also realize that this may make it difficult for Ukraine to accumulate sufficient gas reserves for use in the autumn and winter period. In order to guarantee uninterrupted transit, it will be necessary, in the nearest future, to supply 11.5 billion cubic meters of gas that will be pumped into Ukraine’s underground storage facilities, and this will require a payment of about 5 billion US dollars.
> 
> However, the fact that our European partners have unilaterally withdrawn from the concerted efforts to resolve the Ukrainian crisis, and even from holding consultations with the Russian side, leaves Russia no alternative.
> 
> There can be only one way out of the situation that has developed. We believe it is vital to hold, without delay, consultations at the level of ministers of economics, finances and energy in order to work out concerted actions to stabilize Ukraine’s economy and to ensure delivery and transit of Russian natural gas in accordance with the terms and conditions set down in the contract. We must lose no time in beginning to coordinate concrete steps. It is towards this end that we appeal to our European partners.
> 
> It goes without saying that Russia is prepared to participate in the effort to stabilize and restore Ukraine’s economy. However, not in a unilateral way, but on equal conditions with our European partners. It is also essential to take into account the actual investments, contributions and expenditures that Russia has shouldered by itself alone for such a long time in supporting Ukraine. As we see it, only such an approach would be fair and balanced, and only such an approach can lead to success.


.... with a nice graphic:





Meanwhile, a Russian Airborne "old boy's" get together in Eastern UKR ;D


----------



## The Bread Guy

Even with the threat of bad guys at the gates, it seems Ukraine may be in need of better job protection legislation, too ....


> On this day, April 10, Deputy Chief of the Armed Forces Command Center Ukraine Maj. Gen. Alexander Rozmaznin during a briefing at the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine.
> 
> - According to the current legislation of Ukraine, they have the right to sue and recover their positions. Employers know this and will be held accountable. If people fired from their jobs due to the fact that they were called to mobilize employers are required to renew their work, and to pay an average monthly salary - said Maj. Gen. Alexander Rozmaznin.
> 
> He also said that all the citizens are called upon during mobilization for military service, guaranteed to remain a place of employment, position, average earnings in the enterprise, institution, organization, regardless of their subordination and forms of ownership. At the same time they get allowance as soldiers ....


Ukrainian MoD, 10 Apr 14, in Ukrainian and Google English


----------



## The Bread Guy

Divide and conquer, Russian style:


> For quite awhile now the Russians have had a long term strategy for undermining the European Union. Why would the Russians want to do such a thing? It’s certainly not because of any principled objection to supranational institutions or a unique understanding of sovereignty. The Russians are in the process of creating their own “Eurasian Union” which deliberately echoes the EU in both its name and structure, and have no problem working within the confines of the UN, APEC, and other similar groups.
> 
> (....)
> 
> The other day Putin released a letter to the heads of state of 18 different countries that purchase large supplies of Russian gas, including 13 members of the European Union. The letter stated that Ukraine was no longer capable of paying its bills and that Russia “might” be forced to cut off supplies if Kiev’s debts continue to go unpaid. Putin suggested that there was only one way out of the impasse: immediate high-level negotiations between the respective economic, finance, and energy ministers of all countries concerned. The goal of such negotiations would be to stabilize Ukraine’s economy and ensure the continued delivery and transit of Russian gas.
> 
> Like many Russian proposals, the proposal contained within Putin’s letter sounds perfectly reasonable at first glance. Who could be against negotiation? Isn’t it perfectly sensible to get all of the interested parties together so they can figure a way out of this mess? A summary from Kommerstant, though, makes it perfectly clear what the real Russian goal is. Here’s a translation of the relevant paragraph (emphasis added):
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _The president’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, explained to Kommersant that they had in mind negotiations with every European country, and not with representatives of the European Commission. “Since every one of these countries is a purchaser of gas, every one of them should be a part of the negotiations” he said. *“Holding negotiations only with the European Commission is impossible because they are not a purchaser.”* The Commission has for the past several years been trying to get the EU to present a united front against Russia in matters of energy, and has counterracted Gazprom's attempts to make individual deals with every country. The most striking representation of this position was the Comission’s blocking of “South Stream” despite the fact that Gazprom had successfully reached agreements with all of the EU members participating in the project. In Brussels no one has yet commented on Putin’s proposal. A Kommerstsant source in Brussels explained that on Thursday *neither the European Commission nor the EU had received a copy of the letter* ....._
Click to expand...

Forbes.com, 11 Apr 14


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some highlights ....

-- The Ukrainian Defence Ministry (Ukrainian - Google English) says Ukrainian paratroopers "began combat missions in certain areas", while a Ukrainian wire service report in English says paratroopers are reported to be "performing combat tasks."

-- Twitter is aflutter with reports that "men in unmarked green uniforms" are getting involved in the seizure of more eastern Ukraine buildings, with this compare-and-contrast between a photo from Crimea and a photo from one of said buildings:




Also note difference in uniform, boots between the NotRussian holding up his hand in the foreground of the left-hand photo and the NotRussian (looking more like the NotRussians that popped up in the night around Crimea early on) on the left of the same photo.

-- _Headline Buzzword Watch_:  One man's "separatist" is another man's "federalization supporter" and yet another's "pro-Russian".


----------



## vonGarvin

Cold War 2!  I called it!


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some of the latest ....

European Commission news aggregator:  _"Fighting erupts in two east Ukraine towns"_
Ukraine:  It's them NotRussians Russians (again)****
U.S.:  Easy there, Russia
Russia:  It's not us ....
.... because we don't want to invade ....
.... but you better not fight whoever these guys are, Ukraine, if you want us at any negotiating table
**** -- And here's how we figured out it really _was_ Russians the last time in Crimea.


----------



## Journeyman

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> **** -- And here's how we figured out it really _was_ Russians the last time in Crimea.


Very good article.  Thanks.   :nod:


----------



## vonGarvin

> Mismanagement, changes in plans, corruption, manning issues, and economic constraints have complicated this restructuring



Is he talking about us?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Journeyman said:
			
		

> Very good article.  Thanks.   :nod:


Glad you found it useful.  The site, in general, seems to work hard to confirm & share info without the fevered pitch of either side.



			
				Technoviking said:
			
		

> Is he talking about us?


Tough room, tough room ....

Meanwhile, some of the very latest from the European Media Monitor (EMM) ****:

_"Ukraine sends special forces to take back police HQ in eastern city"_
_"'Dead, wounded' on both sides in east Ukraine police raid"_

**** - EMM is a computerized news aggregator run by the European Commission.  It's quite handy - you can choose stories by country, language, issue or headline, and it allows you to do neat graphs connecting people, places and organizations.


----------



## vonGarvin

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Tough room, tough room ....



Rats.  I put that reply up on my mobile phone.  Apparently my sarcasm smiley didn't take.  :/


----------



## Edward Campbell

And here is an interesting article, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisons of the Copyright Act from _Foreign Policy_, by Adm (Ret'd) James Stavridis is the Dean of The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University:

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/04/10/the_seven_lessons_of_counterinsurgency_101_in_ukraine


> The Seven Lessons of Counterinsurgency 101 in Ukraine
> *How to fend off the Russians, in seven simple steps.*
> 
> BY JAMES STAVRIDIS
> 
> APRIL 10, 2014
> 
> Ukraine hangs at a precarious moment, twisting in an uncertain wind. Russian troops are still massed along the eastern border, and President Vladimir Putin seems intent on keeping his options open: Will he choose invasion, destabilization, or negotiation? The most likely path forward seems to be a Russian attempt to destabilize Ukraine through a covert campaign. The United States and its NATO allies should lean in to help the Kiev regime prepare to conduct counterinsurgency operations, given what appears to be obvious Russian support to violent separatists.
> 
> Step one should be assessing the potential for an effective insurgency and understanding the historical and cultural pressures that create it. The good news about the Russian annexation of Crimea is that it effectively reduces the remaining Russian ethnic population in the rest of Ukraine. While exact numbers are hard to define precisely, most observers believe the remaining pro-Russian ethnic population is around 15 percent: hardly a critical mass, let alone an oppressed majority. The bad news about the annexation -- in addition to losing a significant chunk of territory and the Ukrainian Navy -- is that
> 
> Counterinsurgency 101 has a few basic ingredients, and many Western nations have recent first-hand experience in this complex activity in Afghanistan and Iraq. Clearly, the new regime in Kiev will need sound advice, political support, economic assistance, security equipment, logistical support, and intelligence analysis. Here are the seven specific lessons for Ukraine's Counterinsurgency 101:
> 
> *1. Undercut the insurgency by all political and economic means.*
> 
> In practical terms, this means a powerful campaign of strategic communications that makes the case -- a strong one -- that a unified, cohesive Ukraine is a home to all Ukrainians, whatever first language they speak and from wherever their ancestors hailed. A sincere and inclusive message will win over some number of ethnic Russians (but fistfights in parliament don't help). A significant part of the message is that Ukraine's best future lies not in policies that are pro-Russian or pro-NATO, but pro-Ukrainian -- meaning the freedom to evaluate where the best opportunities for the nation lie. This can be a powerful force in undermining an insurgency's message of hate, separatism, and total alignment under Russian domination.
> 
> *2. Provide an economic future that makes sense.*
> 
> The West must offer healthy economic inducements in the form of International Monetary Fund grants, EU assistance, and U.S. funding -- all of which appears to be on track and in the pipeline. Much of counterinsurgency is in providing alternatives to the "employment options" offered by insurgent leaders; fortunately, most young people would rather have a job or an education than be out planting car bombs.
> Providing funding to allow Kiev to offer those kind of job inducements is key.
> 
> *3. Protect the population of Ukraine from the effects of the insurgents.*
> 
> This means strong military and police presence where necessary, controlling violence in demonstrations (which must be allowed in a democratic nation), using sensible strategies to keep government services flowing, retaking government buildings with a minimum of force, and continuing to deliver government services -- from marriage licenses to courts of justice -- in order to undercut counterinsurgent strategy.
> 
> *4. Get control of the borders.*
> 
> This is a lesson painfully learned in Afghanistan and Vietnam, but crucial to a successful counterinsurgency strategy. This will be challenging, given Russian resources and geographic position -- especially now that they have annexed Crimea. This is where Western military support in intelligence, surveillance, information sharing, logistics, basic equipment (such as night-vision devices and communications gear), and advice and training could be very valuable without escalating the situation.
> 
> *5. Defend and protect from cyberattacks.*
> 
> In this emerging 21st century of conflict, a fifth element of must be understanding the plans and strategy of the opposition in this medium, and working to counter it. There is a role for traditional information sharing using signals intelligence, overhead sensors, and technical assistance here, but the fundamental activity is occurring in the cyber-world. Ukraine is under constant cyberattack from Russia and needs help and protection in order to operate effectively in countering a violent opposition.
> 
> *6. Legitimize the new government in Kiev.*
> 
> Popular elections, due to be held in early May, are crucial to countering the insurgent narrative of an "illegal putsch" that has taken the capital by force. Thus far, the elections are on track and demographics favor a strongly pro-Kiev vote.
> 
> *7. Provide military capability to counter insurgents.*
> 
> Russia has and will continue to supply intelligence, weapons and ammunition, and probably troops (in the form of Spetznaz) to guide their insurgency to destabilize and delegitimize Kiev. This pressure will only ramp up after the upcoming elections. The West should consider military-to-military assistance (short of boots on the ground), including intelligence, information, advice and mentorship, defensive weapons systems, tactical signals intelligence capability, small arms, light sensors, canine assistance, and other classic counterinsurgency tools for the Ukrainian military. This could be done easily through NATO channels given the alliance's excellent military-to-military partnership with Ukraine.
> 
> Fighting insurgencies is hard work, as we have learned all too clearly in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. But we have learned lessons that can and should be applied in these early days. Hopefully, Russia will choose neither an invasion, nor an active role in supporting an insurgency. And there is still hope for negotiations and a course of action that leaves the future in the hands of the people of Ukraine, not those pulling levers in Moscow.
> 
> But if Ukraine faces a Russian-sponsored insurgency, we have tools that can be applied. And we should be ready.




While I don't dispute the seven lessons, I'm not at all sure that Ukraine (or NATO, for that matter) has the tools to apply them.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Technoviking said:
			
		

> Rats.  I put that reply up on my mobile phone.  Apparently my sarcasm smiley didn't take.  :/


No worries - I figured it was a bit of a zinger.

Meanwhile, a few photos from the Ukrainian interior ministry of whazzup in the east ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Let the countdown begin ....


> Ukraine has given pro-Russian separatists a Monday morning deadline to disarm or face a "full-scale anti-terrorist operation" by its armed forces, raising the risk of a military confrontation with Moscow.
> 
> Angered by the death of a state security officer and the wounding of two comrades near the flashpoint eastern city of Slaviansk, acting president Oleksander Turchinov gave rebels occupying state buildings until 0600 GMT to lay down their weapons.
> 
> "The National Security and Defence Council has decided to launch a full-scale anti-terrorist operation involving the armed forces of Ukraine," Turchinov said in an address to the nation ....


0600 GMT Monday = 0900 Kiev time = ~7 hours from now (0200 Eastern)


----------



## Infanteer

It's on.  Ball is in Russia's court.  What do you do Mr. Putin?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some of the latest ....

Twitter ablaze over pro-Russians/pro-federalists/anti-Ukrainians/NotRussians/Russian-leaning seizing an airport in eastern UKR
Ukrainian interim president signs paperwork to get the "anti-terrorist operation" going (Ukrainian version - Bing/Microsoft Translator into English
Meanwhile, the interim president's also reportedly asking for U.N. peacekeepers for eastern Ukraine (which'll it be:  the Cyprus model or Yugoslavia model?)
Putin:  yeah, I've been taking some calls asking for help
A little reminder via a Putin satirical (?) Twitter feed:  _"Remember, 'i've no intention of invading (the rest) of #Ukraine' is NOT the same as 'i won't invade (the rest) of Ukraine. Important point."_


----------



## Jungle

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Some of the latest ....
> 
> Meanwhile, the interim president's also reportedly asking for U.N. peacekeepers for eastern Ukraine (which'll it be:  the Cyprus model or Yugoslavia model?)



Does the interim president of Ukraine know that Russia is a permanent member of the UNSC, with veto powers ??


----------



## The Bread Guy

Jungle said:
			
		

> Does the interim president of Ukraine know that Russia is a permanent member of the UNSC, with veto powers ??


Noooo problem, according to faux Putin via Twitter:


> I think UN peace keepers would help stabilize #Ukraine. It just so happens i've a bunch of soldiers nearby that would suit perfectly...


Besides, the Russians are not unfamiliar with "peacekeeping".


----------



## Journeyman

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Besides, the Russians are not unfamiliar with "peacekeeping".


Ah yes, the biggest problems we had in Kosovo were always with our Russian "allies"   :


----------



## The Bread Guy

Journeyman said:
			
		

> Ah yes, the biggest problems we had in Kosovo were always with our Russian "allies"   :


Do "allies" and "alleged" have the same root word in this case?   ;D

Meanwhile, a  :tsktsk: to Russia for this one ....


> A Russian fighter aircraft made repeated low-altitude, close-range passes near a U.S. ship in the Black Sea over the weekend, the Pentagon said on Monday, condemning the action at a time of heightened U.S.-Russian tensions over Ukraine.
> 
> "This provocative and unprofessional Russian action is inconsistent with their national protocols and previous agreements on the professional interaction between our militaries," said Colonel Steve Warren, a Pentagon spokesman.
> 
> Warren said a Russian Su-24 aircraft, or Fencer, made 12 passes at low altitude near the USS Donald Cook, a destroyer that has been in the Black Sea since April 10. It appeared to be unarmed, he told reporters.
> 
> The incident lasted 90 minutes and took place on Saturday evening while the U.S. ship was conducting a patrol in international waters in the western Black Sea, Warren said. The ship is now in a Romanian port.
> 
> The Russian plane, accompanied by another Fencer that did not fly close to the U.S. ship, did not respond to multiple attempts by the Donald Cook to communicate with its pilot, he said ....


----------



## CougarKing

12 passes?

Defense News



> *Pentagon Condemns 'Provocative' Russian Military Action Against US Navy Ship*
> Apr. 14, 2014 - 01:20PM   |   By ANDREW TILGHMAN
> 
> *A Russian fighter jet on Saturday made repeated “provocative” close-range, low-altitude passes above the US Navy destroyer Donald Cook while it was steaming in the Black Sea, heightening Cold War-style tensions that have continued to escalate for weeks, a defense official said.*
> 
> *The Russian SU-24 Fencer made a total of 12 passes above the destroyer that is equipped with the powerful Aegis missile defense system. The incident occurred in international waters about 48 hours after the Navy ship arrived in the Black Sea.
> 
> The aircraft did not respond to multiple queries from the Donald Cook’s bridge. The Navy destroyer did not respond and the incident ended after about 90 minutes.* The fighter jet did not appear to be carrying missiles under its wings, official said.
> 
> “This provocative and unprecedented Russian action is inconsistent with international protocols and previous agreements on the professional interaction between our militaries,” Army Col. Steve Warren, a Pentagon spokesman, said Monday.
> 
> Warren said the incident was unprecedented. The US and Russia have had no contact since the incident, he said.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Russian for "Come at me, Bro"


----------



## Journeyman

....and _already_ posted in the Ukraine thread.


(And now apparently merged for those who'd rather post frantically, than read what's already here first   : )


----------



## McG

The CBC is now pondering the level (or perhaps willingness) of Canada's level of support if NATO ask for a stronger European presence/demonstration.  The prediction: reluctant.


----------



## The Bread Guy

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> 12 passes?
> 
> 
> 
> Pentagon Condemns 'Provocative' Russian Military Action Against US Navy Ship
> Apr. 14, 2014 - 01:20PM   |   By ANDREW TILGHMAN
> 
> A Russian fighter jet on Saturday made repeated “provocative” close-range, low-altitude passes above the US Navy destroyer Donald Cook while it was steaming in the Black Sea, heightening Cold War-style tensions that have continued to escalate for weeks, a defense official said.
> 
> The Russian SU-24 Fencer made a total of 12 passes above the destroyer that is equipped with the powerful Aegis missile defense system. The incident occurred in international waters about 48 hours after the Navy ship arrived in the Black Sea.
> 
> The aircraft did not respond to multiple queries from the Donald Cook’s bridge. The Navy destroyer did not respond and the incident ended after about 90 minutes. The fighter jet did not appear to be carrying missiles under its wings, official said.
> 
> “This provocative and unprecedented Russian action is inconsistent with international protocols and previous agreements on the professional interaction between our militaries,” Army Col. Steve Warren, a Pentagon spokesman, said Monday.
> 
> Warren said the incident was unprecedented. The US and Russia have had no contact since the incident, he said.
> 
> (...EDITED)
> 
> 
> 
> Defense News
Click to expand...

No worries - the U.S. is on it, according to this (faux?) Yanukovich Twitter post:


> First, MIGs will mix it up with F16s over Black Sea. Next, Mav & Goose will give them the finger, and we'll all play shirtless volleyball!


Sometimes, I learn more from the parody Tweets than from the real ones  >


----------



## The Bread Guy

Just spotted this interesting "Russian military before-and-after" GEOINT assessment of Sevastapol in Crimea - here's the conclusion .....


> Analysis of the port city of Sevastopol, which houses the Russian Black Sea Fleet, has revealed a number of observations that can be considered warning signs of a potential armed conflict. These include the movement of combat and logistics vehicles, the construction of roadblocks, and the establishment of a maritime blockade of strategic ports and harbors. Particularly in the case of maritime actions, these observations suggest a level of coordination and organization consistent with the interpretation that the armed groups which seized control of Crimea in February-March 2014 were not solely “spontaneous self-defense militias”. The apparent use of Russian naval vessels to blockade the port of Sevastopol strongly suggests that such actions are at the very least supported by the Russian military. Of course, alternate interpretations of the imagery are possible, particularly with respect to the deployment and disposition of land-based forces. Nevertheless, when viewed in light of reports alleging the presence of Russian troops on the ground alongside irregular units, this analysis lends credibility to the involvement of Russian military forces in the takeover of Sevastopol.
> 
> Upcoming reports in this series will focus on other Russian and Ukrainian military bases throughout Crimea to determine whether high-resolution satellite imagery can provide further clarification of this evolving situation, and identify further warning signs of a possible future armed conflict between these two countries.


Stay tuned!


----------



## Bird_Gunner45

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> 12 passes?
> 
> Defense News



Thank god we got rid of our GBAD capabilities... never need those again!


----------



## The Bread Guy

Conclusions from attached study out of the Swedish Defence Research Agency (highlights mine) on Russia's chances in the even of another push into Ukraine of one sort or another:


> .... Retaining Crimea would likely require up to two manoeuvre brigades with additional support units. Russia would likely be able to manage such a deployment, but doing so would nevertheless reduce Russia’s ability to handle instability elsewhere, primarily in the Caucasus and Central Asia.
> 
> If Russia decides to solve Crimea’s supply problems by securing a land corridor or seizing a larger buffer zone, two to three more armies may be needed, first to push into territory but probably also over time to secure that taken. Most of Russia’s available forces west of the Urals would then be needed. This would weaken not only Russia’s response capability but also its initial capability to handle instability in volatile areas. It would also affect Russia’s balance of forces with NATO and perhaps even with China in the far east. If Russia gets bogged down in Ukraine, this will affect its long-term ability to handle its military-strategic environment. Such operations, if successful, would leave Russia with freedom of action primarily with its airborne forces, Special Forces, and stand-off warfare assets.
> 
> If the forces available as reinforcements in quickly emerging local and regional wars are reduced by the commitment of Russian forces to Ukraine, the threshold for the use of non-conventional military means might also be lowered. Additionally, in our assessment the Russian concept of nuclear de-escalation, i.e. using a few tactical nuclear devices to deter an adversary from further escalation, is especially worrying in this context.
> 
> In conclusion, *there are military-strategic reasons for Russia not committing additional forces to an extended operation in Ukraine. The risk of military overstretch is significant if forces get bogged-down. Even the less ambitious options outlined, such as repeating Crimea-style operations elsewhere, would tie up a considerable share of Russia’s available forces west of the Urals. However, it should be noted that this may not prevent the political leadership from deciding to intervene on a wider scale. Furthermore, if Russian military planners do not expect any significant armed resistance in Ukraine, the risk of temporarily committing forces for a large-scale invasion may be considered acceptable in view of the prospective gains. However, forecasting the size and duration of military force commitments is difficult, as both the Soviet and NATO operations in Afghanistan and the Russian counter-insurgency operations in Chechnya have shown*.



Meanwhile ...

Twitter's a-flutter over Ukrainian forces (allegedly) retaking an eastern UKR airfield from anti-Ukrainian/pro-Russian/pro-federalist/NotRussian forces
Kiev media with more detailed allegations (who, where) of RUS troops being in Ukraine:


> .... While attending the funeral of a slain SBU captain in Poltava today, First Deputy Prime Minister Vitaliy Yarema said several hundred armed Russian military soldiers are in Luhansk, Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts who were covertly and gradually sent there over a long period of time, reported local online news source Poltavashchyna.
> 
> “Right now, they’ve concentrated their strength in Krasniy Lyman, Horlivka, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk (all in Donetsk Oblast); the terrorists are committing violent acts against police officers and are taking over government buildings,” said Yarema.
> 
> According to the minister, it has been determined that some are from the 45th Airborne Regiment**** of the Russian army based near Moscow.
> 
> The Kremlin still maintains that none of its troops are in Ukraine and that it isn’t behind the terrorist acts in eastern Ukraine ....




**** - A really quick Google-fu brings up some references to a Guards airborne recce/spetznaz regiment near Moscow - Wikipedia here and a Russian media July 2011 article on the unit here - here's a picture of some of the lads using red condoms to prepare for an ambush:


----------



## OldSolduer

MCG said:
			
		

> The CBC is now pondering the level (or perhaps willingness) of Canada's level of support if NATO ask for a stronger European presence/demonstration.  The prediction: reluctant.



Are there still a batch of "useful fools" in the Canadian public who think Vlad and Russia are big friendly bears?


----------



## Journeyman

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Conclusions from attached study.......


Military Intelligence-type assessment at its finest.   :stars:



I wouldn't call  " :dunno: " much of a conclusion.


----------



## SupersonicMax

Bird_Gunner45 said:
			
		

> Thank god we got rid of our GBAD capabilities... never need those again!



Just wondering how GBAD could have helped more in a case like this?


----------



## SeaKingTacco

I think he is referring more to the general necessity in a "peer to peer" fight for GBAD, than this particular incident.


----------



## vonGarvin

It begins?
http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_04_15/Up-to-11-people-killed-in-Kramatorsk-airfield-battle-media-4043/


----------



## The Bread Guy

Journeyman said:
			
		

> Military Intelligence-type assessment at its finest.   :stars:
> 
> I wouldn't call  " :dunno: " much of a conclusion.


OK, howzabout this one (13 page PDF), from the UK's RUSI****, with these maps laying out different scenarios?   ;D









**** - Interesting "who knew?" bit for me from this one is on pages 6 and seven, where it outlines how Russia relies on some pretty important bits of military machines made in, you guessed it, southeast Ukraine (think bits of some nuclear missile guidance systems, 20% of civvy/military uranium and some jet engines, among others).


----------



## Bird_Gunner45

SeaKingTacco said:
			
		

> I think he is referring more to the general necessity in a "peer to peer" fight for GBAD, than this particular incident.



SKT- That is what I was referring to.  The extensive use of helos and now jets indicates that in a peer to peer fight GBAD is still required.  Particuarly that close to Russia, a country with S-300, S-400, SA-11 which would make the CF-18s have a really bad day.  We have to remember that Russia isn't Iraq, and an air war would be slow developing and costly.


----------



## SupersonicMax

In all honesty, we never had anything other that point defence systems.  Since we will most likely be operating from a coalition base with its integral point defence systems, we never had anything to bring to the fight, especially with enemy stand-off weapons.  What we would need is a deployable, integrated area defence umbrella which we never had or will have.

The systems you talk about would definitely be a challenge but with our big brother with us, it would not be impossible to breach.

Back in 1991, Iraq's IADS was considered to be one of the best in the world, almost like a mini-Russia, definitely one of the densest around.  The coalition crushed it in a matter of days by dominating the EW environment.


----------



## Bird_Gunner45

SupersonicMax said:
			
		

> In all honesty, we never had anything other that point defence systems.  Since we will most likely be operating from a coalition base with its integral point defence systems, we never had anything to bring to the fight, especially with enemy stand-off weapons.  What we would need is a deployable, integrated area defence umbrella which we never had or will have.
> 
> The systems you talk about would definitely be a challenge but with our big brother with us, it would not be impossible to breach.
> 
> Back in 1991, Iraq's IADS was considered to be one of the best in the world, almost like a mini-Russia, definitely one of the densest around.  The coalition crushed it in a matter of days by dominating the EW environment.



I doubt that it would be "days" as you say, even with big brother.  And the Russians learned from the Iraqi, which is why they developed the Pantsyr C-PGM system, made their larger scale assets mobile and networked for survivability, and went to mobile C2 nodes.  The Iraqi air defences took roughly 30ish days to degrade enough for ground operations despite the fact that the west, including the US was able to dedict the mass of their assets due to the fall of the USSR and the lack of a credible Iraqi fixed wing air fore (100-ish airframes all sorts).

The Russians, on the other hand have a large number of GBAD and AD fighters, modern weapons, and a reasonably sophisticated AD network, plus their Naval AD assets in the Black Sea.  Plus, it must be remembered that Iraq was a targeteers dream as it was an open desert with little cover, whereas Russia offers a great deal of cover. Finally, due to the proximity to Russia, dominating the EW spectrum would be far more difficult.

and the 35mm/skyguard, ADATS, and Javelin was a solid GBAD package that could reasonably defend against most stand off threats within their threat umbrella.  Aside from long range ARM/Cruise missiles, which clearly are outside that umbrella, the bulk of anti armour, rocket, missile, and even guided bombs have anywhere from a 2km-10km stand off from the target.  Assuming that the bulk of likely AI targets for FW are located well behind the FLOT, the 8km range of the ADATS would only require augmentation by 2 km from the target to overmatch the line of weapon release.  And the 35mm could engage munitions to do VP defence of key assets with the AHEAD ammo. The Javelin, being highly mobile could also provide localized defences or augment other systems.  Linked into an IADS (which, BTW, the ADATS 400 could do as it could push a LAP to the ASCC and receive the COP from the ASCC and teh ASCC can monitor the ADCCN) with PATRIOT for BM and potentially a system such as NASAMS it could be quite effective in a coalition setting.

Finally, Army GBAD would be focussed on aviation and UAS, vice air threats which would be your (the air force) responsibility.  Stand off with those systems is easily within the range of an ADATS with good positioning, or an avenger.  UAS, used for targeting for precision weapons (after all, GPS guided bombs are useless without mensurated grids unless you want to accurately miss a target) would be a primary target.  

But we've had this discussion before, so I digress


----------



## Infanteer

Had it before or not, great post - it's important to remember the capabilities we've shed so, perhaps one day, we can rebuild humpty.


----------



## a_majoor

Curious, since ADATS no longer really exists or is being manufactured, what systems are out there now for the medium range engagements that would be suitable for the CF?


----------



## SeaKingTacco

ADATS was a SHORAD system, meaning it filled the niche of below 10,000 ft, out to 8 (ish) kms.  Medium systems, IIRC, worked out to the 30-50km range band. They were systems like HAWK.

I'm not sure what fill the GBAD bill for the CF today. Maybe a point system or a MANPADS coupled with a system like GLAMRAAM (to leverage a missile already in CF service).  :dunno:


----------



## MilEME09

Thucydides said:
			
		

> Curious, since ADATS no longer really exists or is being manufactured, what systems are out there now for the medium range engagements that would be suitable for the CF?



I think think much actually does exist in the medium range any more, most are long range like patriot batteries, or short range like stingers. I know the MEADS program is on going between europe and the US which will fill that role and replace the patriot but it wont be online for years.


----------



## Old Sweat

And to give us some more food for thought, here is an article discussing the state of play by NATO. It is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provision of the Copyright Act.

Canada, NATO allies to consider military deployment over Ukraine


BY LEE BERTHIAUME, POSTMEDIA NEWS APRIL 15, 2014

OTTAWA — The possible deployment of Canadian military forces into Eastern Europe will be top of mind Wednesday when senior NATO officials present alliance members with options for dealing with the crisis in Ukraine.

The so-called “re-assurance package” to be presented to NATO members was drawn up amid concerns from Poland, Latvia and other Eastern European NATO members about Russia’s larger intentions in the region.

While the package hasn’t yet been presented, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen has said it will focus on three areas: reinforced defence plans; enhanced training exercises; and “appropriate deployments” of NATO forces into the region.

Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird, who will tour Eastern Europe later this week, has said the government is waiting for the package of recommendations before determining any future military involvement in the region.

Canada has taken a hard line with Russia over its actions in Ukraine, with Prime Minister Stephen Harper this week describing the Russian government as “clearly aggressive, militaristic and imperialistic,” and “a significant threat to peace and stability in the world.”

Environment Minister Leona Aglukkaq announced Tuesday that Canada will not attend Arctic Council meetings set to take place in Moscow this week, the latest in a string of measures aimed at isolating Russia.

Canada has also voiced its strong support for Eastern European NATO members, who joined the alliance after the fall of the Soviet Union to escape Russia’s influence. Harper spoke to Latvian Prime Minister Laimdota Straujuma on Tuesday, with the conversation largely focused on the situation in Ukraine.

It’s unclear to what degree Canada and other governments are willing to contribute militarily to help bolster Eastern Europe in the face of Russian aggression. Canada has previously helped train forces and bolster capabilities in surrounding countries during crises in Mali and Syria, and has provided non-lethal equipment to militaries in Central America. Similar high-level efforts in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia would likely be inexpensive and involve little risk.

However, the deployment of CF-18 fighter jets, naval ships or troops on the ground would be a much larger and much more politically sensitive contribution.

Canada pulled the last of its troops from Afghanistan only last month, and the Defence Department is facing deep budget cuts as the Harper government tries to balance the books for next year’s federal election.

But the government also has not come down on whether it thinks NATO should boost its presence in Eastern Europe in the first place.

Fellow NATO members are sharply divided: While the United States and Eastern European countries strongly favour such a move, Western European members fear it will prompt retaliation from Russia, a nuclear power.

The divisions are not only geographic, but also based on how much each alliance member’s economy relies on Russia.

The U.S. has already deployed 18 additional fighter jets as well as several warships to the region since the crisis erupted in February, and has indicated its willingness to post more forces, including hundreds of troops, on a rotational basis.


----------



## vonGarvin

SupersonicMax said:
			
		

> The systems you talk about would definitely be a challenge but with our big brother with us, it would not be impossible to breach.



If Big Brother wants to use nuclear assets, you're right.


----------



## The Bread Guy

And how's the takeback going?  Maybe _not_ generally as well as planned - some photos from Russian media (and some UKR media) of Ukrainian (BMDs?) sent east, and now flying the Russian tricolour.
















Some accounts talk about the Ukrainian (paras?) changing sides, other accounts of Ukrainian troops being held hostage.

Meanwhile, the UKR Ministry of Defence says fundraising continues apace - +100 million UAH (~CDN $8.4 million) and growing!


----------



## wannabe SF member

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> And how's the takeback going?  Maybe _not_ generally as well as planned - some photos from Russian media (and some UKR media) of Ukrainian (BMDs?) sent east, and now flying the Russian tricolour.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Some accounts talk about the Ukrainian (paras?) changing sides, other accounts of Ukrainian troops being held hostage.
> 
> Meanwhile, the UKR Ministry of Defence says fundraising continues apace - +100 million UAH (~CDN $8.4 million) and growing!



Is this actually such a surprise? Sending conscripts in to supress their own people wasn't exactly a bright idea especially given the tenuous grip that Kiev holds over the rest of the region.



> If Big Brother wants to use nuclear assets, you're right.



Or we could heed the lessons of the past and stay as far away from the East European plains as possible.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Inky said:
			
		

> Is this actually such a surprise? Sending conscripts in to supress their own people wasn't exactly a bright idea especially given the tenuous grip that Kiev holds over the rest of the region.


Very true, but are Ukrainian paras**** conscripts or volunteers?  It's one thing for conscripts with a few weeks of training to jump the fence, quite another for "professionals" to do so.

Then again, this _is_ a military that's using radio station cut-ins to collect medical supplies and actively canvassing donations, so perhaps different rules apply.

**** - my assumption based on what looks like Ukrainian BMD's being captured/handed over.


----------



## Rifleman62

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2014/04/15/george_will_this_is_foreign_policy_from_monty_python.html

Obama’s approach -





> “Some presidents take their foreign policy from the idealism of Woodrow Wilson, some from the realism of Henry Kissinger. This is foreign policy from Monty Python.”


 – George Will on “Special Report with Bret Baier.”]


----------



## Bird_Gunner45

SeaKingTacco said:
			
		

> ADATS was a SHORAD system, meaning it filled the niche of below 10,000 ft, out to 8 (ish) kms.  Medium systems, IIRC, worked out to the 30-50km range band. They were systems like HAWK.
> 
> I'm not sure what fill the GBAD bill for the CF today. Maybe a point system or a MANPADS coupled with a system like GLAMRAAM (to leverage a missile already in CF service).  :dunno:



NASAM (Norwegian advanced surface to air missile) is a decent SHORAD choice. used by Spain, Netherlands, Norway, and being trialled by the US.  Towable, airmobile, and a range of 15-25km.  That, with a system like the RBS 70 BOLIDE with a range of 8 km would be a good mix


----------



## SupersonicMax

Technoviking said:
			
		

> If Big Brother wants to use nuclear assets, you're right.



No need for nukes.  In fact, I don't believe it to be a weapon of choice for S/DEAD.

Having seen first hand what the US can do (ie: not the watered down version) to tier 1 exercices like Red Flag Alaska, I have every reason to believe the US has the capabilities to face up against modern IADS and protect a coalition.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some of the latest ....

*"NATO ups military presence amid Russian threat"*
From NATO Sec-Gen statement:  _".... NATO's core task is to protect and defend our Allies. We have already taken a series of steps, including enhancing our Air Policing mission in the Baltic States, and AWACS surveillance flights over Poland and Romania.  *Today, we agreed on a package of further military measures to reinforce our collective defence and demonstrate the strength of Allied solidarity.  We will have more planes in the air, more ships on the water, and more readiness on the land.  For example, air policing aircraft will fly more sorties over the Baltic region. Allied ships will deploy to the Baltic Sea, the Eastern Mediterranean and elsewhere, as required. Military staff from Allied nations will deploy to enhance our preparedness, training and exercises. Our defence plans will be reviewed and reinforced.  We will start to implement these measures straight away.* More will follow, if needed, in the weeks and months to come.  Our decisions today are about defence, deterrence and de-escalation. They are entirely in line with our international commitments ...."_
This from The Canadian Press:  _"NATO has laid out plans to beef up its presence in eastern Europe, and Canada is noticeably absent from the list of countries that have acknowledged they'll send military forces.  Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the alliance's secretary general, said Wednesday it will deploy additional air, sea and land forces to former East Bloc countries in response to the worsening crisis in Ukraine.  The United States, Britain, Denmark, Poland, Portugal and Germany are all planning to contribute fighter jets to increase air patrols over the Baltic region. France and the Czech Republic have also offered aircraft, but they might be employed in missions over Poland ....  *The Harper government is still studying how to respond, despite being one of the harshest voices condemning Russian interference.  "Canada takes its role in NATO very seriously, and we have been, and continue to review ways that Canada can play a constructive role in this reassurance package," Adam Hodge, spokesman for Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird, said in an email* ...."_


----------



## The Bread Guy

From the horse's mouth ....


> *Russian military servicemen assisted in providing security when Crimea held a referendum on secession from Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday.*
> 
> Speaking at his annual Q&A session, Putin said he never kept it a secret with his foreign colleagues that Russian military helped to provide security during the Crimean referendum “so that there (in Crimea) would be no tanks, combat detachments of nationalists and extremist-oriented people armed with automatic weapons.”
> 
> “That is why Crimean forces of self-defense were backed up by our (Russian) troops, who acted in an appropriate, but determined and professional way,” the president said.
> 
> Putin said “it would have been impossible to hold an open and honest referendum” without the security provision by the Russian military.
> 
> “Keep it in mind that there were over 20,000 well-armed (Ukrainian) soldiers at that time in Crimea, 38 S-300 missile air-defense systems, arms depots and loads of ammunition,” he said. “It was necessary to cut off any access to these weapons so that they would not be used against civilians.” ....


----------



## vonGarvin

Here's that six pack....

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-sending-6-cf-18s-for-nato-operation-in-eastern-europe-1.2613636


----------



## Kirkhill

From Open Europe:  Divide on Hawks and Doves






Pleasant Surprises :  Belgium, Ireland  - more aggressive than I anticipated

Mild Curiosity :  Finland - a bit less so - perhaps they don't see a need to be aggressive if others are.

Certainly appears that the primary corridor is via the Baltic.  

Can Moscow go after Novorossiya and Odessa at the same time as Kaliningrad and St Petersburg are blockaded?

If Moscow gains the Black Sea what benefit does it gain if it were denied passage of the Dardanelles and Bosphorus?

If Moscow can claim the Dardanelles as international waters and use it as a sally port to the Med to visit its friends in Syria then Washington is equally free to move US destroyers from the Dardanelles into the Black Sea to visit its friends in Georgia and Romania.

Vlad's playing a short game for the home crowd.  It continues to make me wonder how secure he is amongst the Oligarchs - especially with the capital flight he is experiencing.

Nudder curiousity - fascinating how many of the anti-intervention crowd were fascists during WW2 - and that includes the Netherlands.


----------



## Kirkhill

Technoviking said:
			
		

> Here's that six pack....
> 
> http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-sending-6-cf-18s-for-nato-operation-in-eastern-europe-1.2613636



Gawd Bless the Brylcreem Boys.  Always there when you need them - and none of that expensive tent and portapotty stuff.  All you need is a decent 43 star hotel.

How soon can we buy them F-35s?


----------



## Journeyman

Technoviking said:
			
		

> Here's that six pack....
> http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-sending-6-cf-18s-for-nato-operation-in-eastern-europe-1.2613636





> *Canada sending 6 CF-18s for NATO operation in eastern Europe*
> 
> Sources tell CBC News that this is "incremental posturing" ......


Not just posturing, but _incremental_ posturing~!   


If in doubt, make up new mission verbs   :nod:


----------



## Jungle

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> How soon can we buy them F-35s?



We won't be able to afford them after housing the 200 or so Air Force personnel in the best hotels Poland has to offer, feed them in the best local restaurants and rent 100 cars so they don't have to share when they need to get away from work.


----------



## vonGarvin

Journeyman said:
			
		

> If in doubt, make up new mission verbs   :nod:



Don't forget their planning tool:

http://www.cntraveler.com/readers-choice-awards/europe/best-hotels-eastern-europe


----------



## MilEME09

New cold wars, better call it early a use up tons of money and stand up 4 CMBG again >


----------



## Griffon

Jungle said:
			
		

> We won't be able to afford them after housing the 200 or so Air Force personnel in the best hotels Poland has to offer, feed them in the best local restaurants and rent 100 cars so they don't have to share when they need to get away from work.



That's a bit of a stretch...the best I ever stayed in was _second_ best, and they'll only get 80 cars.  In Poland, probably Mercedes... >

Seriously, they don't normally travel in such an extravagant manner.  Tenting it? No. But there's no 5 star hotel with expensive catering either.


----------



## Robert0288

> *Donetsk leaflet: Jews must register or face deportation*
> http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4510688,00.html
> 
> A leaflet distributed in Donetsk, Ukraine calling for all Jews over 16 years old to register as Jews marred the Jewish community's Passover festivities Monday (Passover eve), replacing them with feelings of concern.
> 
> The leaflet demanded the city's Jews supply a detailed list of all the property they own, or else have their citizenship revoked, face deportion and see their assets confiscated........
> 
> ......"Dear Ukraine citizens of Jewish nationality," the flyer began, "due to the fact that the leaders of the Jewish community of Ukraine
> supported Bendery Junta," a reference to Stepan Bandera, the leader of the Ukrainian nationalist movement which fought for Ukrainian independence at the end of World War II, "and oppose the pro-Slavic People's Republic of Donetsk, (the interim government) has decided that all citizens of Jewish descent, over 16 years of age and residing within the republic's territory are required to report to the Commissioner for Nationalities in the Donetsk Regional Administration building and register."
> 
> The leaflet detailed what type of documents the Jewish citizens would need to supply: "ID and passport are required to register your Jewish religion, religious documents of family members, as well as documents establishing the rights to all real estate property that belongs to you, including vehicles.".......


----------



## Quirky

All these modern jets already in place from the US, Britian etc and Harper sends in 6 70s era jets into a modern Russian air defence network. I'm glad I'm not a Canadian fighter pilot right now.


----------



## cupper

Did anyone let CANEX know that there would be a run on leather jackets?


----------



## The Bread Guy

NOW we have a solution, kids - this from the attached joint statement from four-way talks in Geneva:


> Representatives   of   the   European   Union,   the   United   States,   Ukraine   and   the   Russian  Federation  issued  today  the  following  statement:
> 
> "The  Geneva  meeting  on  the  situation  in  Ukraine  agreed  on  initial  concrete  steps  to  de-escalate  tensions  and  restore  security  for  all  citizens.  All  sides  must  refrain  from  any  violence,  intimidation  or  provocative  actions.  The  participants strongly   condemned   and rejected   all   expressions of   extremism,   racism   and   religious intolerance,  including  anti-semitism.
> 
> All  illegal  armed  groups  must  be  disarmed;  all  illegally  seized  buildings  must  be  returned  to legitimate  owners;  all  illegally  occupied  streets,  squares  and  other  public  places  in  Ukrainian  cities  and  towns  must  be  vacated.
> 
> Amnesty  will  be  granted  to  protestors  and  to  those  who  have  left  buildings  and  other  public  places  and  surrendered  weapons,  with  the  exception  of  those  found  guilty  of  capital  crimes.
> 
> It  was  agreed  that  the  OSCE  Special  Monitoring  Mission  should  play  a  leading  role  in  assisting  Ukrainian  authorities  and  local  communities  in  the  immediate  implementation  of  these  de-escalation  measures  wherever  they  are  needed  most,  beginning  in  the  coming  days.  The  US, EU and  Russia  commit  to  support  this  mission,  including  by  providing  monitors.
> 
> The  announced  constitutional  process  will  be  inclusive,  transparent  and  accountable.  It  will
> include  the  immediate  establishment  of  a  broad  national  dialogue,  with  outreach  to  all  of
> Ukraine’s   regions   and   political   constituencies,   and   allow   for   the   consideration   of   public comments  and  proposed  amendments.
> 
> The  participants  underlined  the  importance  of  economic  and  financial  stability  in  Ukraine  and would  be  ready  to  discuss  additional  support  as  the  above  steps  are  implemented.


----------



## cupper

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> From Open Europe:  Divide on Hawks and Doves
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Pleasant Surprises :  Belgium, Ireland  - more aggressive than I anticipated
> 
> Mild Curiosity :  Finland - a bit less so - perhaps they don't see a need to be aggressive if others are.
> 
> Certainly appears that the primary corridor is via the Baltic.
> 
> Can Moscow go after Novorossiya and Odessa at the same time as Kaliningrad and St Petersburg are blockaded?
> 
> If Moscow gains the Black Sea what benefit does it gain if it were denied passage of the Dardanelles and Bosphorus?
> 
> If Moscow can claim the Dardanelles as international waters and use it as a sally port to the Med to visit its friends in Syria then Washington is equally free to move US destroyers from the Dardanelles into the Black Sea to visit its friends in Georgia and Romania.
> 
> Vlad's playing a short game for the home crowd.  It continues to make me wonder how secure he is amongst the Oligarchs - especially with the capital flight he is experiencing.
> 
> Nudder curiousity - fascinating how many of the anti-intervention crowd were fascists during WW2 - and that includes the Netherlands.



I'd be interested in where the Turks fall in this spectrum. (basic curiosity and for somewhat selfish reasons as well)

Not sure that Pooty-Poot would be willing to stir up that hornet's nest to make points.


----------



## SeaKingTacco

Quirky said:
			
		

> All these modern jets already in place from the US, Britian etc and Harper sends in 6 70s era jets into a modern Russian air defence network. I'm glad I'm not a Canadian fighter pilot right now.



I am a little curious to know when you think F15s and F16s were designed.

(Hint- they both pre- date F-18s...)


----------



## dapaterson

SeaKingTacco said:
			
		

> I am a little curious to know when you think F15s and F16s were designed.
> 
> (Hint- they both pre- date F-18s...)



And you may also want to investigate about lifecycle upgrades - systems on today's CF-18s are not the same as when they first entered service.

See also: http://www.rcaf-arc.forces.gc.ca/en/aircraft-current/cf-188.page for information on some of the past, current, and ongoing upgrades to the fleet.


----------



## cupper

SeaKingTacco said:
			
		

> I am a little curious to know when you think F15s and F16s were designed.
> 
> (Hint- they both pre- date F-18s...)



Damn, that's right, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18. Yep. ;D


----------



## Jungle

cupper said:
			
		

> Damn, that's right, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18. Yep. ;D



So the F-117 was REALLY futuristic !!!


----------



## midget-boyd91

Jungle said:
			
		

> So the F-117 was REALLY futuristic !!!



Nah, someone sneezed while writing out the proposed name for the aircraft and accidentally marked in an additional line before "17." One of those simple, honest mistakes.


----------



## Griffon

uncle-midget-Oddball said:
			
		

> Nah, someone sneezed while writing out the proposed name for the aircraft and accidentally marked in an additional line before "17." One of those simple, honest mistakes.



Nope.  17 was taken by the YF-17, the precursor to the F/A-18.  The F-117's designation comes from a very different place, and does not follow any of the conventions currently in place for U.S. military aircraft.

...or it's really from the future...


----------



## midget-boyd91

Griffon said:
			
		

> Nope.  17 was taken by the YF-17, the precursor to the F/A-18.  The F-117's designation comes from a very different place, and does not follow any of the conventions currently in place for U.S. military aircraft.
> 
> ...or it's really from the future...



Yeah, I was aware of that... but I like my special reality better. There's just something strangely appealing about a reality where things are named what they are because of accidental sneeze marks. Although I do like the future idea... even though it's already retired. Hmm, how does a future aircraft become retired before it's designed?


----------



## Jungle

uncle-midget-Oddball said:
			
		

> Although I do like the future idea... even though it's already retired. Hmm, how does a future aircraft become retired before it's designed?



It's not retired, it's back to the future.


----------



## tomahawk6

SACEUR says that Russian troops are posing as pro-Russian demonstrators.Not a surprise and FSB agents have been shown to be among the leaders of the pro-Russia movement.A page out of the Nazi playbook.

http://www.armytimes.com/article/20140417/NEWS/304170055/4-star-Armed-attackers-Ukraine-Russian-troops-disguise

The Russians aren’t fooling anyone.

That’s the stark message from the Supreme Allied Commander Europe and four-star chief of U.S. European Command, Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove.

In a blunt post on his blog Thursday, Breedlove said he rejects the Russians’ claim that their military is not conducting operations in the towns of eastern Ukraine.


----------



## Kirkhill

Problem  solved - Geneva Accord

Then again - Maybe not

Will Vlad's Private Army - which isn't deployed in any event - withdraw?

"Facta, non verba." indeed.


----------



## vonGarvin

We see the power of the press.  A single, Israeli news source reported that Jews in Eastern Ukraine were ordered to register as such.  Now it's taken on a life of its own, and accepted as true, in spite of denials by all in the region.  Were pamphlets produced and sent out?  Maybe.  Maybe not.  I doubt it was by an "government", official or not.  

But the pounding of the drums by all sides is troubling to me.  We have our own CF 188 pilots brushing off Russian AD assets as "not a big problem" and we have a six-pack of fighters heading over, along with other jets by NATO partners.

That it's the 100th anniversary of the beginning of the First World War only adds irony.


----------



## a_majoor

More from Time, as Russians move into Eastern Ukraine:

http://time.com/66419/ukraine-putin-force-justified/



> *Putin: I Would Be Justified Using Force in Ukraine*
> Simon Shuster / Donetsk @shustry  April 17, 2014
> Russian President Vladimir Putin warned during a live televised Q&A on Thursday that he would send troops to protect the people of eastern Ukraine and that Kiev gave him just the visuals he needed to revive his faltering narrative about civilians under threat
> 
> Vladimir Putin could not have picked a better day than Thursday, April 17, to hold his annual call-in show on Russian television. Two days earlier, Ukraine’s government had sent its military to fight armed Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine. The result on Wednesday in the region of Donetsk was a series of clashes and confrontations between the military and the local separatists. So on Thursday, when Putin appeared live on TV, he clearly felt he had every excuse to move one step closer toward a Russian intervention.
> 
> “The people in the eastern regions have started arming themselves,” Putin said in response to a question about the Ukrainian crisis. “And instead of realizing that something isn’t right in the Ukrainian state and moving toward a dialogue, [the government in Kiev] began threatening more force and even moved in tanks and planes against the peaceful population. This is yet another very serious crime of Ukraine’s current rulers.” He then reminded viewers that the Russian parliament has given him approval to send troops into Ukraine. “I really hope that I’m won’t be forced to use that right,” he says.
> 
> But Russia has been warning for months that it would take eastern Ukraine “under its protection” if the local population came under threat of military force. The Kremlin’s television channels have meanwhile been hyping that threat with all the subtlety of a jackhammer. Their narrative has been simple: Ukraine’s revolution brought fascists to power in February; those fascists are out to repress the Russian-speaking regions of southern and eastern Ukraine; salvation lies in separatism and, if needed, in Russia’s protection.
> 
> MORE: Should Vladimir Putin be on the 2014 Time 100? Vote now.
> 
> In late February, when Russia began its invasion of Crimea on the pretext of protecting its residents from Ukraine’s revolution, that story was an easy sell. The new government in Kiev was only a week old at the time, and most people in Ukraine’s outlying regions had no clear idea of the leaders who would emerge from the revolution. Many people in Crimea bought into the Russian line that nationalist thugs were on their way from Kiev to terrorize the local population.
> 
> But in the past few weeks, the Kremlin’s narrative had grown increasingly hard to maintain. The people of eastern Ukraine have had nearly two months to size up their new leaders and compare them to the fascist cabal depicted on Russian TV, and they could see that Russia’s warnings were overblown. “It’s all lies,” says Vera Oleynik, a pensioner in the city of Donetsk who said she stopped watching the news – Russian and Ukrainian – weeks ago. “It’s enough to give you heart trouble,” she says. “I only believe what I see with my own eyes.” And it has been clear enough to the locals that no nationalist thugs have come to cause havoc, while Kiev’s choice for the new governor of the Donetsk region, Serhiy Taruta, turned out last month to be a local tycoon who runs the region’s football club. Even if his constituents do not like him, they know him well enough to tell that he’s no fascist.
> 
> For the region’s pro-Russian separatists, that has been a frustrating development. The crowds that have come out to support them in eastern Ukraine have been thin, numbering a few thousand people at most, many of them idle gawkers or truant teenagers. Opinion polls suggest that there is nowhere near a majority of people in these regions would favor breaking away from Ukraine and joining Russia, as the separatists managed to do last month in Crimea.
> 
> But in the past two days, the tanks rolling into eastern Ukraine have helped Russia revive its narrative and build its case for an intervention. That effort has involved large doses of deception. In his call-in show, for instance, Putin neglected to mention what exactly these tanks were doing in eastern Ukraine. So far, they have mostly been surrendering to the local gunmen rather than firing a shot. In the village of Pchyolkino, a column of Ukrainian tanks was surrounded for hours on Wednesday by a mix of civilians and uniformed gunmen, and rather than forcing their way through, the soldiers abandoned their tanks and armored vehicles to the crowd.
> 
> Though humiliated, those soldiers most likely avoided a bloodbath at the cost of their pride and their careers. (The government in Kiev pledged on Thursday to put them on trial for “cowardice.”) But the separatists in eastern Ukraine still managed to get the gunfight they have been trying to provoke for days. On Wednesday night, a group of gunmen arrived at a military base in the south of the Donetsk region and demanded the Ukrainian soldiers surrender their weapons and “come over to the side of the people.” Though it is not clear who fired the first shot, the ensuing firefight reportedly left a dozen people wounded and as many as three dead before midnight.
> 
> The Russian state media jumped on this news immediately. The Kremlin-funded Russia Today network reported that the casualties resulted from a “confrontation between anti-government protesters and soldiers.” Its report neglected to mention that the protesters were armed with Kalashnikov assault rifles, which they were not shy in firing at the military servicemen. But those details are easily lost in the Kremlin’s broader picture of peaceful civilians being overrun by the Ukrainian army.
> 
> Across the Donetsk region, the increasing brazenness of the separatist attacks now seems geared to provoke that kind of violence. On Wednesday morning, for instance, a group of masked gunmen stormed city hall in the region of Donetsk. Calling themselves members of a group called Oplot – in English, Bulwark – the two dozen men walked into the building with shotguns and assault rifles and set up positions at every entrance. One of their leaders, a pudgy man in his fifties who identified himself as Igor, told TIME near the backdoor of the building that they were simply there to make sure that local officials “do their job without interference” from the central government in Kiev. And what if Kiev sends its military to interfere? “I don’t know,” Igor said, lifting his surgical mask to drag on a cigarette. “Maybe Moscow will help us.”


----------



## Kirkhill

Coincidental timing TV - I was just combing the news as you were posting when I came across this article.  It's a funny old world when I find myself citing Al Jazeera.  

The article is about "Far-Right" connections.  

Having said that, I don't think the issue for Vlad is ideology.  I think he is using the techniques he was taught at school with the KGB.  He understands those techniques.  He has applied them.  He has seen them work where Brezhnev's techniques failed - as 25,000 rusting tanks can attest.

Destabilization. Disinformation.  Denial.  

For Vlad it really doesn't matter what a particular individual or party believes in an "enemy" state.  So long as they are slowing down national and local governments, preventing them  from taking effective action and alienating the general population from the institutions that govern then they are doing Vlad's work.

I believe that Vlad believes that the KGB and the GRU were and are the most effective tools in the Kremlin's tool box and he has been giving free-rein to the successor forces as he generally applies the techniques and tactics he was schooled in when dealing with the world at large.  And "friends" at home.


----------



## Kirkhill

And to the question: What does Russia gain if it holds Black Sea but not the Dardanelles?  As well as the position of Turkey and Bulgaria amongst the "Hawks and Doves".




Turkey to Allow South Stream Passage "if Russia Requests It"

Russian Energy Minister: We Will Proceed with South Stream

The European Parliament is due to vote a resolution aimed at halting construction of the South Stream gas pipeline project. 

All courtesy of Novinite news in Bulgaria

For Reference: South Stream Pipeline







And here is the Baltic version - Nord Stream






South Stream is dependent on Russia holding the Black Sea (at which point Turkey becomes a cypher), Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary.  It feeds Southern European clients and bypasses Ukraine and Romania.

Nord Stream also bypasses Ukraine and Romania, and Poland, but the Northern clients are less dependent on Russian gas and have more alternatives - including North Sea gas, nuclear power, "frac gas" and coal.  Turning up coal production is a political decision and not a technical problem.  As the Green Germans demonstrate with their increased use of Brown Coal.


----------



## Journeyman

Technoviking said:
			
		

> But the pounding of the drums by all sides is troubling to me.



OK I pre-emptively regret asking, but why is this troubling?  

Not saying you are, but for the past 10-15 pages you've _come across_ as Russia's most ardent cheerleader here.  That the West is finally doing _something_ -- and I see this as very modest in comparison with Russian actions -- is now somehow troubling?  I'd never previously thought that you believed "cause & effect" was simply a theory devised to show Monica Belluci's cleavage in Matrix 2 and 3.




> A single, Israeli news source reported that Jews in Eastern Ukraine were ordered to register as such.


With all the outright lies surrounding this event, on numerous sides, this is the only one prompting you to call foul?
  



> That it's the 100th anniversary of the beginning of the First World War only adds irony.


If nothing else, it's good to see "Canadian content" regulations adopted; you apparently have Alanis Morrisette's understanding of the term "irony"


----------



## devil39

I think it is not necessarily a bad thing to have the West/NATO demonstrate a little bit of resolve.   A bit of resolve combined with a bit of diplomacy seems a better option than letting Russia ignore the internationally recognized territorial integrity of a sovereign state.  

Of course there is no black and white when it comes to this situation.  All things being equal I will give the benefit of the doubt to the West/NATO over Russia.


----------



## Jungle

devil39 said:
			
		

> All things being equal I will give the benefit of the doubt to the West/NATO over Russia.



All the time.


----------



## Bird_Gunner45

Technoviking said:
			
		

> We see the power of the press.  A single, Israeli news source reported that Jews in Eastern Ukraine were ordered to register as such.  Now it's taken on a life of its own, and accepted as true, in spite of denials by all in the region.  Were pamphlets produced and sent out?  Maybe.  Maybe not.  I doubt it was by an "government", official or not.
> 
> But the pounding of the drums by all sides is troubling to me.  We have our own CF 188 pilots brushing off Russian AD assets as "not a big problem" and we have a six-pack of fighters heading over, along with other jets by NATO partners.
> 
> That it's the 100th anniversary of the beginning of the First World War only adds irony.



When I read the story about the Jewish registry, I wondered about how legitimate that was too... Russia has a history of anti-semitism (though the Ukrainians, by all historic accounts, were far worse than the Russians during the Pogroms) but they aren't openly anti-semetic.  Why would Russia or their puppets (as the story goes) enact a policy that would so clearly irritate the west when they dont do the same thing in the mother country? When the Germans invaded their neighbours they HAD anti-semetic policies in place and in hind sight their actions weren't a surprise.  In the end, is it a ploy by the Ukraine to sell support to their cause, the fact that the seperatists are apparently really anti-semetic, or Russian soldiers who went maverick? who knows

I also sense from people on this blog (inluding CF-188 pilots) and at work that people are looking at this as an Afghan type deployment.  A war against Russia, as France and Germany learned, will be more difficult than anyone seems to want to believe.  Russia is not Iraq- the Iraqi's were poorly trained, poorly led, largely Shia conscripts.  Their AD system was not destroyed when the ground war started, nor was their armour (the air war in the Gulf war was, largely over-rated and most combat was against largely in tact Iraqi formations).  Because of the fall of the USSR the US and allies could also mass air power and resoures.  Will the US mass resources in Europe in a war like this? Will their carriers be able to go anywhere near the black sea? How much US air power will stay in the US or operate in the east? How will China react? Iran? North Korea? If you were those nations, and the US was going into a full war with russia that would be a great time to enact your own dreams (taiwan, shia parts of Iraq, S Korea).


----------



## vonGarvin

devil39 said:
			
		

> All things being equal I will give the benefit of the doubt to the West/NATO over Russia.


Not me. Not after they called an armed coup an action of democracy, but a plebiscite as undemocratic and illegal.  We are not different than they.   None of this is our concern.  But I fear that very soon, it will be very much our concern.


----------



## vonGarvin

Journeyman said:
			
		

> That the West is finally doing _something_



Why should we do *anything*?  It is none of our concern.  Given the shit-state of the World, and our inaction in it, why ought we even frown over Ukraine and the region around it?  Especially when MENA is in an active shooting war with massive atrocities on all sides?


----------



## devil39

Technoviking said:
			
		

> Why should we do *anything*?  It is none of our concern.  Given the crap-state of the World, and our inaction in it, why ought we even frown over Ukraine and the region around it?



Now, I'm not a lawyer.....however......

The rationale probably has something to do with the Westphalian State system, the norms of international law and territorial integrity I would expect.   Unchecked aggression, the violation of international boundaries is something all states on the planet should be concerned about.  Without the acceptance and support of these norms there is no check against unscrupulous, aggressive nations.  

The argument against territorial integrity might well be the idea of self determination of peoples, however there are probably more acceptable ways for eastern (Russian) Ukrainians to achieve this internally vice the imposition of military force from a neighbouring nation (Russia).  

Again there is no black and white here, and there rarely is in the politics and international relations between competing nations.


----------



## vonGarvin

devil39 said:
			
		

> Now, I'm not a lawyer.....however......
> 
> The rationale probably has something to do with the Westphalian State system, the norms of international law and territorial integrity I would expect.   Unchecked aggression, the violation of international boundaries is something all states on the planet should be concerned about.  Without the acceptance and support of these norms there is no check against unscrupulous, aggressive nations.
> 
> The argument against territorial integrity might well be the idea of self determination of peoples, however there are probably more acceptable ways for eastern (Russian) Ukrainians to achieve this internally vice the imposition of military force from a neighbouring nation (Russia).
> 
> Again there is no black and white here, and there rarely is in the politics and international relations between competing nations.


*nods*
And what of the USA's frequent ingnoring of other states in the execution of its War on Terrorism?  

Why pick on Russia? While at the same time, ignoring the sins of the USA, Syria, Iran, etc?  

And what of China?


----------



## vonGarvin

Now, to add onto a previous post in this thread, I'm both stupid and a cheerleader for Russia (apparently, but it must be true, coming from Journeyman), so please feel free to ignore any posts I make, but I find that we are accusing them of the very things we ourselves are doing.  (Somehow pointing that out makes me a Russophile).  I'd just rather not be a blind cheerleader of The West when in fact there is, as you say, no black and white here.  But Russia is acting as anyone ought to expect Russia to act, especially with the West encroaching on it.


But what do I know? 


I guess I ought instead to just wave the  and cheer on the home team.  Go team!


----------



## Quirky

SeaKingTacco said:
			
		

> I am a little curious to know when you think F15s and F16s were designed.
> 
> (Hint- they both pre- date F-18s...)



I'm more curious to know what sort of contribution 6 F-18s will make. I'm sure Russia is really sweating now...  :


----------



## SeaKingTacco

I suppose that it is meant to show solidarity with Poland.  Of course, look how well that worked out last time...


----------



## George Wallace

Quirky said:
			
		

> I'm more curious to know what sort of contribution 6 F-18s will make. I'm sure Russia is really sweating now...  :



 :

Youth today really don't understand what membership in NATO is all about, nor the responsibilities of member nations.


----------



## Kirkhill

Technoviking said:
			
		

> Now, to add onto a previous post in this thread, I'm both stupid and a cheerleader for Russia (apparently, but it must be true, coming from Journeyman), so please feel free to ignore any posts I make, but I find that we are accusing them of the very things we ourselves are doing.  (Somehow pointing that out makes me a Russophile).  I'd just rather not be a blind cheerleader of The West when in fact there is, as you say, no black and white here.  But Russia is acting as anyone ought to expect Russia to act, especially with the West encroaching on it.
> 
> 
> But what do I know?
> 
> 
> I guess I ought instead to just wave the  and cheer on the home team.  Go team!



TV? TV?  Technoviking?  Where are you?  And why is Marvin calling himself Technoviking?






 I have a million ideas, but, they all point to certain death.


----------



## OldSolduer

It's not the amount of aircraft or personnel, it's the appearance of Canada working within NATO. 





			
				Quirky said:
			
		

> I'm more curious to know what sort of contribution 6 F-18s will make. I'm sure Russia is really sweating now...  :


----------



## Bird_Gunner45

Technoviking said:
			
		

> Now, to add onto a previous post in this thread, I'm both stupid and a cheerleader for Russia (apparently, but it must be true, coming from Journeyman), so please feel free to ignore any posts I make, but I find that we are accusing them of the very things we ourselves are doing.  (Somehow pointing that out makes me a Russophile).  I'd just rather not be a blind cheerleader of The West when in fact there is, as you say, no black and white here.  But Russia is acting as anyone ought to expect Russia to act, especially with the West encroaching on it.
> 
> 
> But what do I know?
> 
> 
> I guess I ought instead to just wave the  and cheer on the home team.  Go team!




 :goodpost: :endnigh:

We have to remember too that since the end of the Cold War the west has experienced an unprecedented period of global hegemony which allowed it (and by it I mean the US) to act unitarily without threat of retaliation from another power.  Instead of bringing Russia into the fold and fostering relations, we, the west, spent the time basially s***ing on their cornflakes, attempting to make them permanently weaker than us, and engaging in arbitrary and useless wars for political reasons and our own economic benefit.

For all the people who like to make the historical connections between Russia and Germany, the historic connection of the actions of the west since the end of the Cold War and the actions of the allies between 1919 and 1939 should not be lost.

In the interwar years France and GB attempted to wedge the Germans in, economically supress them, and engaged in colonial wars (and an invasion of germany) inevitably forcing the rise of the NAZI party by stripping the Germans of their national pride and strength.  In this, the west basically set set the conditions for WW2, a fact we seem to conveniently forget.

We had a chance with Russia, but threw it away.  The fact that the Russians have pride in themselves and want to improve their living and social conditions shouldn't be a surprise.  There are ways we (the west) and Russia can achieve all of these goals peacefully.  Altering international borders to reflect real conditions (through internationally monitored referendums), fostering economic agreements for pipelines, energy exports etc, and giving Russia a real voice in the world (not just ignoring them by say invading Afghanistan and Iraq) could do this. Instead, we prefer to engage in self righteous worship and move towards war.

Will we win a war with Russia? Almost guaranteed.  Is it something we can do without high casualties? Not likely.


----------



## Bird_Gunner45

The link attached is another example of the historial "back to the future" trek we seem to be so excited to take.  Op UNTHINKABLE was the British plan to continue WW2 into Russia.  The documents are interesting in that many of the issues identified in 1945 are still valid today, including the reality that war with Russia is essentially a zero sum game.

https://web.archive.org/web/20101116152301/http://www.history.neu.edu/PRO2/

One final example of the west's decision making being a reason for the current Russian actions.  The intervention of the west into Yugoslavia and Kosovo against the Serbs was seen in Russia as being anti-slavic and painted a picture in Russia as the west being against them.  When the west backed the Croats and Bosnians against the Serbs we forgot some of the historic context for the civil wars- the Bosnian muslims and the Croats committed incredible attrocities against the Serbs in WW2 as they were allied with the Germans.  In fact, Bosnian muslim SS units were used to occupy particularly troublesome slavic areas as they were especially ruthless. This is why the Russians moved into Kosovo so quickly-they legimately fear the wests influence in slavic affairs.

http://www.fantompowa.net/Flame/yugoslavia_collaboration.htm

Now, juxtapose the traditional role of Russia as the defender of the Orthodox slavs onto this backdrop, add the wests defence of traditional enemies of this group, and then further add in the west (NATO) incorporating nations increasingly close to Russia into an alliance that is, in reality, aimed at defeating Russia.  

If you were Russia would you not feel somewhat threatened by this? Would you expect the US to act differently if, say, Mexicans rebelled in New Mexico, drew historical parallels to their inclusion in the Mexican empire, and asked Mexico for assistance? Do you believe that the US would appreciate Russian intervention on behalf of the poor Mexican minority? There are parellels all around, and most dont point to blind "us vs them" analysis.

If we want to make parallels to the Russians=the Germans pre-WW2 than we ought to at least make the same parellels to ourselves.  After all, the study of history is supposed to allow us to analyze past mistakes for a better future, not to remake the same mistakes because of a poor, or heavily biased, understanding of the same history.


----------



## Kirkhill

More news from the top of the fence:

Bulgaria on the European Parliament's position of South Stream in light of the Ukrainian situation.



> The European Parliament has adopted a resolution opposing the South Stream gas pipeline and recommending a search for alternative sources of gas supplies for the EU.
> 
> In a resolution on Russian pressure over Ukraine adopted on Thursday, MEPs insisted on more sanctions against Russia and especially its energy companies.
> 
> The resolution was not backed by the group of Socialists & Democrats (S&D), who were among its initiators but subsequently backed out of it, according to reports of dnevnik.bg.
> 
> Due to the reservations of the S&D group towards the South Stream provisions, they were put to a separate vote and were endorsed by a large majority of MEPs.
> 
> After the vote, Bulgarian MEP Iliyana Yotova (S& D) told journalists that the non-legislative resolution of the EP only served as a recommendation.
> 
> Yotova argued that the EP resolution would probably be used for election purposes.
> 
> MEP Andrey Kovachev (European People's Party, EPP) noted that center-right party GERB (Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria) was in favor of the South Stream gas pipeline project provided that it was fully compliant with EU law, according to reports of the Bulgarian National Radio (BNR).
> 
> According to the EP resolution, the EU must step up sanctions targeting individual Russians and be ready to impose economic sanctions on Russia immediately.
> 
> MEPs also called for EU measures against Russian firms and their subsidiaries, especially in the energy sector, and Russia's EU assets, against a background of violence designed to destabilize the east and south of Ukraine.
> 
> MEPs expressed concern over the fast-deteriorating situation and bloodshed in the east and south of Ukraine and urged Russia to immediately stop supporting violent separatists and armed militias, led by Russian special forces, as well as to remove its troops from the eastern border of Ukraine.
> 
> MEPs expressed hopes that the imminent four-party meeting of the EU, the US, Ukraine and Russia in Geneva could pave the way for a diplomatic solution to the crisis, stressing that Ukraine's future choices could only be made by the Ukrainian people themselves, through a democratic, inclusive and transparent process.
> 
> "Parliament welcomes, in principle, the idea of holding a nationwide referendum on future status and territorial set-up as suggested by Acting President Turchynov," according to the resolution.
> 
> MEPs also called on the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Special Monitoring Mission gathering information on atypical paramilitary activity, provocative actions and human rights situation in Ukraine to be expanded.
> 
> MEPs underscored that no attacks, intimidations or discriminations of Russian or ethnic Russian citizens or other minorities had been reported in Ukraine recently.
> 
> The European Parliament welcomed the Ukrainian government's intention to hold early parliamentary elections
> 
> - See more at: http://www.novinite.com/articles/159923/MEPs+Oppose+South+Stream%2C+Seek+Sanctions+against+Russian+Energy+Firms#sthash.Dal6zFGt.dpuf



Bulgaria wants/needs South Stream, wants/needs to be seen to be supporting Russia, wants/needs to be seen to be supporting Ukraine, wants/needs to be part of the EU and NATO.

And they are heading into their own elections.

At the same time the EU and NATO want/need to stop Euros flowing back up those gas pipelines into Russia.

What happens to Vlad if he does turn off the taps and....nobody notices.







I think Europe could manage in the short term (1 to 3 years) simply by increasing the rate of exploitation of existing reserves, putting a moratorium on the moratorium on coal and coal fired plants and CO2 capture and increasing the amount of energy imported by sea.

The sea-borne route may result in higher costs than Russian gas but I would be willing to bet the moratorium on the moratorium on coal would actually result in reduced costs.  Either way both avenues are likely to be less expensive than manning a new Iron Curtain along the Dniepr.  And considerably cheaper than  a new shooting war with tanks that neither side has.


----------



## vonGarvin

Yep. Right now, the short term will suck. But they (the EU) will have to find sustainable sources.

The sad thing is that though both sides have many fewer tanks, they have many more than we...


----------



## Journeyman

Technoviking said:
			
		

> Now, to add onto a previous post in this thread, I'm both stupid and a cheerleader for Russia.....



Which is why I specifically said:


> Not saying you are, but for the past 10-15 pages you've _come across _ as Russia's most ardent cheerleader here.


 Now stop pouting and/or drinking while posting; it's unbecoming.


----------



## vonGarvin

Journeyman said:
			
		

> Now stop pouting and/or drinking while posting; it's unbecoming.



Jawohl


----------



## Edward Campbell

I'm not so sure Russian gas and oil is the key, or a key, to almost anthing. Go back to page 2 of this thread, please, to the Technoviking's map ...






Ukraine is a deeply divided state: the orange parts are Ukrainian speaking and European; the blue bits are Russian speaking and they favour Russia.

Russia has, understandably, _defended_ its own, lomg standing *vital strategic interests* in Crimea. It is, also understandably, making a power grab in East and South Ukraine because President (or is he Supreme Leader now?) Putin senses that the US led West is irresolute because it (we) don't have *vital strategic interests* in Ukraine or Crimea.


----------



## MilEME09

On the subject of Canadian commitments, this is an interesting national post article




> *Matt Gurney: Ukraine crisis shows need for larger Canadian military*
> 
> Though it feels absurd to say this — like a bad joke at a lame 80′s themed party — the Canadian government has announced that this country is sending reinforcements to our NATO allies in Europe. Six CF-18 fighter jets and necessary support personnel will soon deploy to an Eastern European location (expected, but not confirmed, to be Poland), to join other NATO forces in a “patrol” mission. Roughly 20 staff officers will join their alliance peers at NATO headquarters in Belgium, to assist in contingency planning. HMCS Regina, currently deployed in the Arabian Sea on anti-terror duties, may join allied warships assembling in European waters.
> 
> Whatever bland bureaucratic euphemisms these efforts will be saddled with, this is a military buildup in response to recent Russian moves against Crimea and its military mobilization across the border from the rest of Ukraine, as well as some posturing off the frontier of Estonia, a NATO member. NATO’s Eastern European members, for whom Soviet domination is a not-too-distant memory, called for reinforcements, and after typical delays, the allies are responding.
> 
> At the risk of stating the obvious, any armed conflict between Russia and the West would be a very bad thing. Putin would have to be a mad man to provoke such a clash, with its literally apocalyptic risks. But, alas, NATO doesn’t really have a choice. Yes, Putin would need to be a mad man to pick a fight with the allies. But our defence posture must accept the possibility that Putin is indeed a mad man. He may not be — indeed, he probably isn’t. But the alliance would not be acting in a responsible manner if it adopted as its official response to this crisis a policy of, “Meh, we’ve probably seen the worst of it.” So, yes. Reinforcements must be sent, and Canada is right to do its part.
> 
> But, gosh, that part sure is awful tiny.
> 
> We are a G8 nation, an economic giant. We have the second largest landmass in the world. Our population of 35 million may not be huge, but we’re not exactly Andorra. And yet, the military commitment that has been announced or even hinted at — six jets, a few dozen officers and, maybe, a warship — constitutes a frighteningly large percentage of our total available military assets. The six CF-18s, in particular, represent a shockingly tiny contribution, and a major effort, at the same time.
> 
> Currently, Canada’s air fleet includes 80 relatively recently modernized CF-18 jets. These aircraft are more than three decades old, but remain capable. Should it be necessary to fight the Russians, the CF-18s and their pilots would acquit themselves well. But there’s still only 80 of them, and not all of those are actually assigned to combat squadrons. Some aircraft are needed for training and scientific purposes, and aircraft are always being rotated in and out of service for maintenance. Indeed, as of 2012, barely half of our 80 jets — 48 total — were actually assigned to combat squadrons.
> 
> Canada fields four squadrons of 12 jets each, two squadrons each to Alberta and Quebec. As if that wasn’t bleak enough, those squadrons only maintain a “readiness rate” of 70%, at best (readiness rate meaning how many of the aircraft are actually immediately available for service at any given moment). Do the math on that — 48 x .7 — and you get 34 planes, rounded up to the nearest jet. Again, that’s the best-case scenario, assuming that every squadron meets its readiness goal.
> 
> That’s not enough to protect a country of this size. Even if you write off the vast swathes of Canadian territory that are only populated by moose and black flies, 34 jets still isn’t enough to cover all of our population centres, and our military knows it. According to sensitive information publicized by WikiLeaks in 2012, Royal Canadian Air Force contingency planning assigns the available jets to cover four defence zones 24/7 — Vancouver, Calgary-Edmonton, Toronto, and Montreal-Ottawa. Saskatchewan, Winnipeg, Quebec City, all of Atlantic Canada and the entire Arctic — sorry, fellas. No jets for you.
> 
> Think of that for a minute. Thirty five million people — 34 jets. You need a city the size of Edmonton or Ottawa to keep one CF-18 in the air? Really?
> 
> The Air Force is too small. There’s no way around that. We don’t have enough jets to cover our own territory, even when we are using all of them at home. And that’s almost never the case. Our jets often take part in important training exercises with allied nations. We assist the U.S. in patrolling the vast air approaches to North America — several years ago, after an accident grounded the U.S. jet fleet in Alaska, Canadian jets assumed temporary responsibility for the defence of that entire state. And now, of course, we’re sending half a dozen of our precious few planes on an important mission abroad to support our allies and maintain international stability. This is what I mean when I said that our contribution is both tiny and a major commitment. As bleak as it is to admit this, our paltry six jets is probably more than we can really spare.
> 
> I’ve focused on the Air Force here, but the other service branches aren’t much better off. The Army, which benefitted from new equipment and relatively lavish funding during the Afghan War, isn’t in bad shape, and could probably put together a modest land battlegroup with a decent mixture of infantry, armoured vehicles and artillery if it was asked to. It would be light on helicopters, drones and would be using elderly supply trucks, but it could do it. But the Navy is a disaster. Michael Byers, a frequent contributor to the commentary pages of the National Post, recently wrote an oped for us where he took a close look at the state of our maritime readiness, with particular attention paid to tensions in Ukraine. Space constraints do not permit me to recap his findings in full, but suffice it to say, if the Russian Army decided to make a break for Paris tomorrow, Canada could probably send … a ship. Maybe two, but probably not.
> 
> Canada is never going to be a major global military power, and when compared to many of our allies, a disproportionate percentage of our military power will always be needed here at home, looking after our gigantic landmass and the air and sea approaches that surround it. But even with only 35 million souls, a country this rich ought to be able to patrol its own coastline and vital ocean trade routes, provide adequate search-and-rescue services throughout its territory and provide minimal air cover to all of its major populated areas, while still possessing enough strength to contribute modestly, but meaningfully, to international operations. Right now, we fail, miserably, in each and every one of those categories.
> 
> The typically progressive Canadian response to talk of this nature is to scoff, and demand to know what Canada needs a military for. The absence of apparent international threats is held up as proof that Canada doesn’t need a military, beyond what’s required for domestic security. But make no mistake — first of all, Canada does not currently meet even the modest military thresholds required to provide said domestic security, and on the international scene, threats materialize faster than we can muster the strength to respond to them. On the morning of Sept. 10, 2001, the idea of Canada waging war in southern Afghanistan would have seemed ridiculous. In 2010, sending an air and naval group to Libya would have been science fiction. Mounting a major humanitarian intervention in Haiti after a devastating earthquake wasn’t on anyone’s radar until after the earthquake struck. And reinforcing NATO against Russian adventurism? As if.
> 
> And yet all of these things have happened, in recent memory, and with little or no warning. The world is not as nice or stable a place as millions of Canadians continue to pretend it is. We need a military capable of securing our home and helping out abroad. We don’t have it. This should embarrass us all — but especially our “troop supporting” Tory government. It’s great that the troops are so valued. Too bad there’s so few of them.
> 
> National Post


----------



## Infanteer

Perhaps Balkanizing it and giving the Russian part to the Russians is the key to long terms stability?   :dunno:


----------



## Edward Campbell

Infanteer said:
			
		

> Perhaps Balkanizing it and giving the Russian part to the Russians is the key to long terms stability?   :dunno:




It is blindingly obvious to say that doing that with Czechoslovakia in 1938 didn't solve anything, but I'm not sure that we can do much except lie back and await the inevitable, etc.

As I said: we, the US led West, doesn't have a *vital strategic interest* there, Russia does. Are we going to deny them that interest? Would that be smart? Possible, yes, I think, albeit difficult, but smart? No.

Do we draw a line - President Obama's very good a drawing red lines, he's a little less effective at doing anything about them - where the orange meets the blue on the Technoviking's map? That would work ... but why would we do it? Is Ukraine worth a war with Russia?

What is worth a war with Russia? An attack on a NATO member, obviously, is the _casus belli_ that would be needed to go head-to-head in full scale, long, bloody combat with Russia. Do we have the resources? Yes, but not near at hand. Can we win? Yes, the US led West can crush Russia ... eventually, and at considerable cost. Is it worth the cost? What about China? Will they join in the fun? Would _that_ be in our interests?


Edit: grammar  :-[


----------



## vonGarvin

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Is Ukraine worth a war with Russia?


My opinion, at the risk of sounding like a dove, is no.



			
				E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> What is worth a war with Russia? An attack on a NATO member, obviously, is the _casus belli_ that would be needed to go head-to-head in full scale, long, bloody combat with Russia. Do we have the resources? Yes, but not near at hand. Can we win? *Yes, the US led West can crush Russia ... eventually, and at considerable cost.* Is it worth the cost? What about China? Will they join in the fun? Would _that_ be in our interests?



That part is terrifying.  We would have to see this once again:


----------



## Edward Campbell

Technoviking said:
			
		

> Quote from: E.R. Campbell on Yesterday at 23:20:38
> 
> 
> 
> Is Ukraine worth a war with Russia?
> 
> 
> 
> My opinion, at the risk of sounding like a dove, is no.
> 
> Quote from: E.R. Campbell on Yesterday at 23:20:38
> 
> 
> 
> What is worth a war with Russia? An attack on a NATO member, obviously, is the casus belli that would be needed to go head-to-head in full scale, long, bloody combat with Russia. Do we have the resources? Yes, but not near at hand. Can we win? Yes, the US led West can crush Russia ... eventually, and at considerable cost. Is it worth the cost? What about China? Will they join in the fun? Would that be in our interests?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> That part is terrifying.  We would have to see this once again:
Click to expand...



I agree with you, TV. Notwithstanding the domestic partisan political considerations - the large, generally Conservative friendly, Ukrainian diaspora in Canada - Ukraine, even the very existence of Ukraine as an independent nation, is not one of our *vital strategic interests*. It is worth some sable rattling, by a _six pack_ of CF-18s, anyway, but not much more.

But, suppose Russia/Putin decides that *a)* reconnecting Kaliningrad to _Mother Russia_ is another of its *vital strategic interests*; and notes that *b)* Russian speakers in Southern Lithuainia, a NATO member, are being 'abused,' in its/his opinion; and notes, further, that *c)* the American led West is reluctant to face up to Russian aggression; and, then, *d)* decides that it/he can "take another bite of the apple?" What do we do then?


----------



## vonGarvin

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> What do we do then?


Before that happens, we make it clear that Lithuania is a NATO state, and as such, any attack in it will be an attack on all, including subversive attacks, etc.  And personally, I would agument this message by packing a carrier battlegroup off the coast of the Baltics as soon as any such shenanigans started up.  A clear reminder that Lithuania isn't Crimea.  And issue an equally clear reminder that we have absolutely zero interest in that part of Russia that used to be East Prussia.




But if Mr. Putin et al ignore that, then we have no choice.  War.  And I fear it wouldn't go well.


----------



## dimsum

Technoviking said:
			
		

> Before that happens, we make it clear that Lithuania is a NATO state, and as such, any attack in it will be an attack on all, including subversive attacks, etc.  And personally, I would agument this message by packing a carrier battlegroup off the coast of the Baltics as soon as any such shenanigans started up.  A clear reminder that Lithuania isn't Crimea.  And issue an equally clear reminder that we have absolutely zero interest in that part of Russia that used to be East Prussia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> But if Mr. Putin et al ignore that, then we have no choice.  War.  And I fear it wouldn't go well.



:goodpost:

I'll be honest and admit that I haven't been keeping up with Russian current events, but I wonder what (if any) power the other major players in Russia have over this?  Obviously they can't be overtly opposing Putin, but if the Russian oligarchs have international interests (and I'm sure they do), war would be the last thing they would want.


----------



## McG

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> It is worth some sable rattling, by a _six pack_ of CF-18s, anyway, but not much more.


What about a nice, big combined joint Ex COTTAGE ... Send a reminder that we can show up at the back door.


----------



## Infanteer

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> It is blindingly obvious to say that doing that with Czechoslovakia in 1938 didn't solve anything, but I'm not sure that we can do much except lie back and await the inevitable, etc.



Yes, but I've also seen literature suggesting it did work in the Balkans in the 1990s.  Yugoslavian multi-ethnic villages were burned out in the 1990s and the ethnic map became far more sharply divided.  No civil war when all the Serbs live in one area, all the Croats in another and all the Bosnian Muslims in a third.  Let the conditions that create ethnic enclaves work themselves out.  Can we live with Putin taking the pro-Russian areas of the Ukraine, pushing to the Dnepr River under the conditions that the orange areas are left alone?  It definitely gives him less of political crutch to continue his current course of action.


----------



## Kirkhill

Balkanization presupposes Balkan tribes.  I am yet to be convinced that the situation in Ukraine is analogous to the Balkans.  The Pro-Russian crowds seem to be a bit thin on the ground, although well armed.

If the populace comes out in mass, I can be convinced.  Not yet.


----------



## Fishbone Jones

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> The Pro-Russian crowds seem to be a bit thin on the ground, although well armed.



There are only so many Russian soldiers that you can pass off as local civilians


----------



## Quirky

Jim Seggie said:
			
		

> It's not the amount of aircraft or personnel, it's the appearance of Canada working within NATO.



If that's the case then why not just send in a few office personnel rather than unnecessarily risk our pilots?

To me this seems more of a reason to justify new fighter jets to the Canadian public (we need them anyways). Perhaps once the news gets back that our rather outdated aircraft keep getting lit up by modern Russian A/A, stealth fighter jets would be an easier sell.


----------



## McG

Quirky said:
			
		

> If that's the case then why not just send in a few office personnel rather than unnecessarily risk our pilots?


You are not really shoulder-to-shoulder with allies if you are both a lightweight and a risk avoider ... and we might not have a brigade of RMS clerks available to be a heavyweight risk-avoider.


----------



## KerryBlue

Apparently the "peaceful" pro-Russian protesters are not as peaceful as they claim to be. 



> *Ukraine alert as politician 'killed'*
> 
> Ukraine's acting president has ordered the relaunch of military operations against pro-Russian militants in the east after two men, one a local politician, were "tortured to death".
> 
> Oleksandr Turchynov said the body of politician Vladimir Rybak was found near rebel-held Sloviansk.
> 
> "The terrorists who effectively took the whole Donetsk region hostage have now gone too far," he said.
> 
> The move came as US Vice-President Joe Biden was visiting Ukraine.



http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27118875


Also, the protesters in the Donetsk region who apparently don't take hostages or use violence are holding Vice News reporter Simon Ostrovsky hostage after a press conference yesterday.   

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/04/22/vice-simon-ostrovsky-held-ukraine_n_5192590.html


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Quirky said:
			
		

> If that's the case then why not just send in a few office personnel rather than unnecessarily risk our pilots?
> 
> To me this seems more of a reason to justify new fighter jets to the Canadian public (we need them anyways). Perhaps once the news gets back that our rather outdated aircraft keep getting lit up by modern Russian A/A, stealth fighter jets would be an easier sell.



I can't see the CAS throwin' a few Hornets and drivers out the door for a reason like you suggest.  I don't think you thought this one thru before you hit 'post'.

 :2c:


----------



## dimsum

Quirky said:
			
		

> If that's the case then why not just send in a few office personnel rather than unnecessarily risk our pilots?
> 
> To me this seems more of a reason to justify new fighter jets to the Canadian public (we need them anyways). Perhaps once the news gets back that our rather outdated aircraft keep getting lit up by modern Russian A/A, stealth fighter jets would be an easier sell.



But we are sending 20 or so staff officers to NATO as well.  And as MCG suggested, no one will really take you seriously if you don't bring some assets to the cause.


----------



## Kirkhill

From The New Yorker



> PUTIN AND THE EXILE
> BY DAVID REMNICK
> APRIL 28, 2014
> 
> ....
> Vladimir Putin listened to the counsel of Sergei Guriev until that counsel, inflected with notes of disapproval and an urge for profound reform, became intolerable. So now, in Paris, Guriev, a slight, handsome man in his early forties, sat in the sun and provided a convincing assessment of the ominous transformation that has led to masked thugs in the streets of Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Lugansk; xenophobic propaganda on the Russian airwaves; a wholesale rejection of the West and an increasingly close alliance in the United Nations with the likes of Assad’s Syria and Mugabe’s Zimbabwe.
> 
> Putin came to office in 2000. Russia was at its nadir: an economy in ruins; a political system with no authority; fourteen per cent unemployment. His timing was uncanny. Energy prices rose. G.D.P. growth shot up to as high as nine per cent. Unemployment dropped by more than half. A financial sector developed, which brought greater investment and productivity. By 2008, average citizens—far from all Russians, but tens of millions of them––were living better than they had lived at any time in the nation’s history. Russian billionaires, like the sheikhs of yesteryear, bought up the prime real estate of Mayfair, Fifth Avenue, and the Côte d’Azur. And with that new wealth and welcome stability came enormous popularity for Vladimir Putin. His compact with the Russian people, however, was stark: Stay out of politics and thrive. Interfere, presume, overstep, and you will meet a harsh fate.
> 
> But *now, as the [Russian] economy sputters*, the compact has become much more severe. *Inflation is high. Foreign investment, the stock market, and the ruble have declined––and this is all before the pain of Western sanctions and the costs of the Ukrainian adventure have fully registered. Capital flight has reached as much as seventy billion dollars this year. Growth is now at about one per cent and, according to Guriev, “heading toward zero.”* Corruption, cronyism, re-nationalization, and opacity are enemies of progress, advisers like Guriev have long insisted, but Putin has not wanted to hear it. He has come to insist on public pledges of loyalty; a figure like Guriev can no longer remain an adviser to the regime.
> 
> *The occupation of Crimea, the maneuvers in eastern Ukraine––it is all part of a short-term, and highly successful, political diversion to maintain Putin’s domestic rating. It is also a road to nowhere. *Never mind the interests of the Ukrainian people, who have suffered one kleptomaniacal leader after another. Putin will hardly rescue them. The tentative cooling-off agreement that Russia and Ukraine struck late last week might curtail further violence, and yet on the same day Putin chose to emphasize his right to send troops into the country and used the centuries-old, highly nationalist term Novorossiya––New Russia––to describe southeastern Ukraine.
> 
> *Putin’s current tactics for social contro*l are cunning and effective. His popularity rating––a vexed statistic in an authoritarian country––is at eighty per cent.* “For less sophisticated people, he relies on brainwashing,” Guriev said. “For more sophisticated but less honest people, he needs to bribe them. For honest, sophisticated people, he uses repression.” *The President doesn’t much care if he has pushed an independent mind like Guriev out of the country. *He knows that his real cronies––the men from the K.G.B., from his judo club, from Ozero, his dacha co-op near St. Petersburg––have nowhere to go. They will either suffer the Western sanctions, which could cut into their billions, or make the highly dangerous move of plotting against their patron.*
> 
> As Guriev was discussing all this, his phone rang. It was his wife. Eighty boxes had arrived that day from Moscow—“our worldly possessions”––and he had to go and help out. But, before leaving, he noted that* there were limits to how long Putin could sustain his diversion, much less his power. “When people see that Putin can’t deliver, there will be trouble,” he said, adding that he did not know how bad things would get before they begin to change, but, for his part, he was counting on another turn. Not soon, necessarily, but one day.* Guriev had not sold his apartment in Moscow. “We’re only renting here,” he said. “I plan on going home.” ♦



Guriev's analysis makes sense to me.... for whatever that is worth.


----------



## vonGarvin

Call me a skeptic or whatever you wish, but all I see from pundits in the west are variations on the theme of "Putin is failing".  He may yet fail, but so far, he's yet to even trip.  Once.  

Do we care about Ukraine?  Probably.  But not because it's Ukraine, but only because it's Russia on the other side.  After all, it seems we have forgotten about Syria and the real tragedy that is going on there.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some commentary in Russian media by a guy who seems to have written a bit about the Russian military .... 


> .... Former Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov's military reforms were primarily aimed at ending the concept of a mass-mobilization army that had prevailed in Russia for almost 150 years. Serdyukov rejected the myth that hundreds of thousands of conscripts could quickly and effectively fill the ranks, opting instead to form a dozen battle-ready groups composed of professional soldiers who can deploy within hours of receiving orders. The world witnessed Russia's new rapid deployment capability during its Crimean special operation.
> 
> The question is whether Moscow will manage to follow the same scenario in eastern and southern Ukraine. When the Kremlin began creating its rapid-deployment forces, it had no idea it might need them to capture Ukraine. Once international coalition forces withdraw from Afghanistan, radical Islam threatens to spill over into the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. Russia shares an even longer border with Kazakhstan than it does with China, and that border exists more on paper than in fact. Russia is hurriedly forming rapid deployment forces to counter this potential threat. They will probably include four divisions and five brigades of airborne troops, four brigades and eight individual regiments of Marines, units of the Main Intelligence Directorate, or GRU, three or four elite army formations and support forces for the Air Force and Navy. Defense Ministry plans indicate that those forces will be composed of volunteer soldiers in the coming years. Of the 50,000 contract soldiers the Russian Army recruits annually, it sends a significant number to staff these forces. The Russian Air Force already has up to 20 battalions composed entirely of contract soldiers, and there is every reason to believe that the 30,000 to 40,000 troops assembled near Ukraine's southern and eastern border in February represent the backbone of Russia's future rapid-deployment forces.
> 
> Under the current conditions, those forces are adequate for seizing the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine. The question is whether it will be possible for Moscow to hold those territories. After all, it was easy enough to sever Crimea from the rest of Ukraine by simply blocking the highway and railway through the narrow Isthmus of Perekop. But it would not be that easy to do in the Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv regions of Ukraine. Russian forces would have to create a full-fledged border where none had ever existed, severing hundreds of roads linking the captured regions with the rest of Ukraine. It would mean setting up checkpoints on all of the major roads to prevent Ukrainian forces from entering the captured territory. That task would need an occupation force of at least 100,000 professional soldiers and officers — more than Russia has ....


----------



## Edward Campbell

Technoviking said:
			
		

> Call me a skeptic or whatever you wish, but all I see from pundits in the west are variations on the theme of "Putin is failing".  He may yet fail, but so far, he's yet to even trip.  Once.
> 
> Do we care about Ukraine?  Probably.  But not because it's Ukraine, but only because it's Russia on the other side.  After all, it seems we have forgotten about Syria and the real tragedy that is going on there.




I agree, broadly, with the pundits: Russia/Putin is *failing*; Russia/Putin is in an inevitable, irreversible decline but, as you point out, that doesn't mean he's not going to win this round. Thus far the US led West seems chronically unable to do anything ... because there is no consensus that anything _useful_ can or should be done.


----------



## Kirkhill

In the absence of an American President Poland's Donald Tusk is doing an awful lot these days to find useful measures to hinder Putin.  I've already alluded to his recent surge of treaty making with Romania, Moldova, Ukraine, Lithuania, Georgia and Albania.  Now he is promoting a European Energy Union based on allowing the EU countries to exploit their own energy resources, primarily coal, and internally sharing them, rather than forcing countries to leave energy in the ground and make them reliant on foreign/Russian sources.

Tusk's efforts include continuing to build up his own defenses while inviting all and sundry NATO allies to come to Poland - for both short and long stays.









I have posted this image before, as the new face of war.  I still believe it to be valid.  This is how you defeat insurgencies, whether solely of domestic origin, as exploited by external agencies or entirely generated by foreigners.  

Vlad is demonstrating what I have long held to be the most important phase in war:  The advance to contact.  It demonstrates a willingness to act.  It doesn't have to mean further violent action.

The follow-on actions are containment, blockade, isolation and starvation.

Ukraine's problem is that it doesn't have a disciplined force of those young, fresh faced privates at its disposal.  Both its police and army have been seriously degraded - and the development of a tradition of discipline that allows youngsters like that one depicted to stand their ground in the face of provocation doesn't occur over night.

I have vague/clear recollections of being in Gagetown and conducting battle drills.  After Prepping, and advancing the next phase, or escalation, was reacting to "effective" enemy fire.   I well remember the course Warrant (Muise) loudly informing us, after the first cracks from the opposing force and us all going to ground to seek cover, as per reaction drills, that we were only to react after the fire was "effective" and that "higher" would inform us when that point had been reached.  The obvious implication was that we were not independent agents on the battlefield but instruments of government policy as interpreted by higher command - and higher would determine how many casualties it was willing to accept before it decided to relinquish the "offense" (advance)  and revert to the "defense" (dash, down, crawl, observe, sights, fire).

As I think of it, firing - killing the enemy - came a long way down the chain of actions.

But Ukraine is not completely with out serving personnel that understand the nature of the conflict and how to manage it.






I can point to another, American, incident in a similar vein: Najaf, 2003










This is a war of symbols.  It is a propaganda war - perhaps, ultimately, the only one that really counts as it goes to the heart of the matter - the will of the general population to attack or defend.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Where various countries stand on cranking up the economic sanctions:




Source


----------



## The Bread Guy

Wanted:  Canadian election observers for Ukraine - apply here before noon 28 Apr 14!


----------



## McG

It seems the opposition parties support the CF-18 deployment, but want more information about how the fighters will be employed.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/opposition-wants-more-details-on-cf-18-deployment-to-eastern-europe-1.1789703


----------



## devil39

Quote from: Quirky on April 22, 2014, 13:59:59


> If that's the case then why not just send in a few office personnel rather than unnecessarily risk our pilots?
> 
> To me this seems more of a reason to justify new fighter jets to the Canadian public (we need them anyways). Perhaps once the news gets back that our rather outdated aircraft keep getting lit up by modern Russian A/A, stealth fighter jets would be an easier sell.





			
				Eye In The Sky said:
			
		

> I can't see the CAS throwin' a few Hornets and drivers out the door for a reason like you suggest.  I don't think you thought this one thru before you hit 'post'.
> 
> :2c:



I think you might be a little harsh on this one.  Do you really believe that the desire for new fighters and a "use it or lose it" perspective wasn't a possible factor in the estimate for the deployment of a "6 pack"?  (regardless of the "getting lit up" comment)


----------



## Journeyman

MCG said:
			
		

> http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/opposition-wants-more-details-on-cf-18-deployment-to-eastern-europe-1.1789703
> 
> Liberal defence critic Joyce Murray: "Perhaps what we're seeing now is the effect of the Conservative government's stealth cuts to the Canadian Armed Forces. When you slash the department's budget for equipment and readiness, it makes the deployment of Canadian assets that much more difficult."


Liberals....criticizing cuts to Defence spending..... :stars:


----------



## The Bread Guy

Two views via cartoon ....




Source

Meanwhile, some of the latest:

Putin parody Twitter feed:  _"There will be consequences for #Ukraine's army entering a town in Ukraine and interfering in Ukraine."_
Reuters:  _"Russia says starts military drills in response to Ukraine, NATO"_
_Wall Street Journal_:  _"Ukraine Pauses Slovyansk Operation Amid "Heightened Risk" of Russia Attack - Senior Security Official"_


----------



## McG

Looks like Russia is now accusing NATO of plans to seize the Ukraine ... although, getting into the text of the article you will note that might not mean seize by military force (as the headline implies).

Meanwhile, Canada will send 500 elections observers to oversee the coming elections in the country.  I wonder if that election will be allowed to happen through all parts of the country, or will various belligerents (including Not Russians) block it.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

devil39 said:
			
		

> I think you might be a little harsh on this one.  Do you really believe that the desire for new fighters and a "use it or lose it" perspective wasn't a possible factor in the estimate for the deployment of a "6 pack"?  (regardless of the "getting lit up" comment)



Not any more of a factor than the decision to send Leo C1A2s to the sandbox was before the Leo 2 was part of the ORBAT.  Do you believe the CAF did that to support the "we need new tanks!" chorus line?


----------



## McG

It seems Russia is not committed to gaining the release of Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) military observers who have been captured and accused of spying by separatists.  

Meanwhile, the Ukraine has determined it must seek NATO membership for its survival.  Of course, I suspect we would come to the same conclusion if we were not already NATO members and Russia took Ellesmere Island.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MCG said:
			
		

> It seems Russia is not committed to gaining the release of Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) military observers who have been captured and accused of spying by separatists.


The observers are apparently not _with_ OSCE (in spite of being described as such in various reports).  according to OSCE, it's a team that was invited by Ukraine under the terms of a 2011 agreement signed in Vienna - OSCE is calling it a "Military verification team," as opposed to its own "OSCE Special Monitoring Mission."

Meanwhile, here's one of the "political prisoners" separatists/federalists/anti-Ukrainians/NotRussians @ the barricades reportedly want to trade for the military observers - the photo is an older one, but you know what they say about leopards and spots ....




More on the flag/symbols in the right-hand photo here.


----------



## The Bread Guy

A couple of updates:

Russian media eyes a new (possibly hot?) spot:  Soledar in eastern Ukraine - more here, here and here
Vets of the Ukrainian National Army/SS Galicia Division discouraging public parades, events on anniversary of unit formation (Ukrainian version - Google English translation)


----------



## The Bread Guy

A new twist, if sources who don't want their names used are to be believed - CF-18's headed to Romania instead of Poland....


> Canadian fighter jets are leaving for Europe Tuesday morning to join NATO patrols as tensions rise over Russia’s efforts to destabilize neighbouring Ukraine, sources say.
> 
> The warplanes depart as Group of Seven countries including Canada announce they are imposing new sanctions on Russia because of Moscow’s attempts to foment rebellion in eastern Ukraine.
> 
> Six CF-18 Hornets are being deployed to Romania and the jets leaving from Canadian Forces Base Bagotville in Quebec ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> A new twist, if sources who don't want their names used are to be believed - CF-18's headed to Romania instead of Poland....


Now confirmed by NATO's Info-machine:


> Fighter jets from Poland, the United Kingdom and Denmark take over NATO air policing duties over the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania on Thursday (1 May 2014) as part of enhanced collective defence measures agreed to by Allies earlier this month.
> 
> French fighter aircraft arrived in Poland on Monday (28 April 2014) to conduct training activities and air policing duties and *Canadian jets left Canada on Tuesday (29 April) for deployment to Romania* for similar duties there.
> 
> A ceremony is planned on Wednesday ( 30 April 2014) at the Siauliai airbase in Lithuania when the United States will hand over responsibility for the mission to Poland, the United Kingdom and Denmark. The three countries will officially take over the task on Thursday (1 May 2014). The United States led the mission from 1 January to 30 April 2014. Poland will lead the mission and provide four MiG-29 aircraft. They will be backed up by four British Typhoon jets. The Polish and British aircraft will operate out of Siauliai airbase in Lithuania.
> 
> Four Danish F-16 jets will start patrols from Amari airbase in neighboring Estonia. The three Allies will conduct air policing duties for a four month period.
> 
> In addition, four French Rafale jets will operate out of the Malbork airbase in Poland. *The six Canadian CF-18 fighter aircraft will be based in Romania as part of the NATO efforts to reassure Allies in Central and Eastern Europe* ....


----------



## MilEME09

From what I've heard Romania doesn't have any fighters of its own that could really go stand upto Russian aircraft (They still use Mig-21's until an order of used F-16's are delivered) so putting our birds their may just score us some political points with the Romanian government


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some of the latest ....

_” *‘Support Ukrainian Army’ Campaign: MoD of Ukraine received over UAH 114 mln.* — As of April 29 within the ‘Support Ukrainian Army’ Campaign the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine received over UAH 114,6 mln. (CDN $ 11.1 million) from legal and physical entities ….”_ 
_“*Ukraine separatists push east as US intercepts Moscow orders* – John Kerry says US has proof that Russia is behind rebellion in country’s east, as militants seize regional government building in Luhansk ….” _ (The Telegraph (U.K.))
_*“Russia Fears Put Ukraine On ‘Full Combat Alert’ “*_  (European Commission news aggregator)
_*“Separatists seize buildings in east Ukraines Horlivka”*_ – more  (European Commission news aggregator) – more (Google News search “Horlivka”)


----------



## winnipegoo7

> Canada is dispatching the frigate HMCS Regina to join the NATO military alliance’s efforts to beef up security in central and eastern Europe as the crisis in Ukraine deepens.



http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/canada-sending-frigate-to-nato-security-effort-in-eastern-europe/article18343817/

Presumably to the Mediterranean.

and 





> ... also announced that a team of navy clearance divers would deploy next month for an exercise in Latvia..



http://www.baytoday.ca/content/news/national/details.asp?c=61390


----------



## The Bread Guy

From the PM ....


> Prime Minister Stephen Harper today issued the following statement announcing an additional measure that Canada is taking to promote security and stability in Central and Eastern Europe:
> 
> “Russia’s illegal occupation of Ukraine and provocative military activity remains a serious concern to the international community.
> 
> “Canada remains committed to working with our NATO Allies to promote the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.
> 
> “To further demonstrate Canada’s support for Alliance solidarity, our Government is today announcing that we are committing the HMCS Regina, currently deployed in the Arabian Sea, to NATO Standing Maritime Forces, as part of NATO’s reassurance package.
> 
> “Our Government will continue taking steps to enhance security and stability in Central and Eastern Europe.”



This, from the Minister of Defence:


> The Honourable Rob Nicholson, P.C., Q.C. M.P for Niagara Falls, Minister of National Defence, today announced members of the Canadian Armed Forces will participate in Operation OPEN SPIRIT 2014 in Latvia alongside personnel from the Latvian Naval Flotilla (LNF) and military members from Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Norway, Sweden, Finland, France, Poland, Germany, Lithuania, Turkey, the United States and the Standing NATO Mine Countermeasures Group 1 (SNMCMG1). Operation OPEN SPIRIT is an annual multinational disposal of maritime explosive remnants of war that will be based out of the Latvian Naval Base in Liepaja, located in west Latvia on the Baltic Sea between May 9 and 22, 2014. The Canadian Armed Forces will be contributing the Royal Canadian Navy clearance diving team ....


More on OP OPEN SPIRIT 2014 here.


----------



## MilEME09

> *Canada takes over leadership of military observer mission in Ukraine as it moves warship into strategic position
> *
> 
> DONETSK, Ukraine — Canada is stepping into the increasingly tense showdown between Kyiv and Moscow over the future of eastern Ukraine by taking over leadership of an Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s military observer mission in the central European country.
> 
> Three Canadians from the Directorate of Arms Control Verification are to lead a nine-member team, Defense Minister Rob Nicholson said in a statement released Wednesday. The other members will come from Ukraine, France, Moldova and the U.S.
> 
> A Canadian warship is being routed to Eastern Europe to help NATO in its tense standoff with Russia over the crisis in Ukraine, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said Wednesday. HMCS Regina, one of the navy’s 12 frigates, had been patrolling with allies in the Arabian Sea as part of a multinational counter-terrorism mission, and is the latest Canadian military contribution in response to the Ukrainian crisis.
> 
> It is the first time that Canada has led such a mission. Its job will be to monitor the deteriorating security situation across Ukraine until May 11.
> 
> Such observer duty does not come without hazards in the current situation. Seven members of another OSCE team were kidnapped and have been held hostage since last week by pro-Russian militias in the town of Slovyansk. Those holding that German-led team of observers have demanded the release of some of their supporters who have been jailed by the Ukrainian government and the dismantling of barricades in the centre of Kyiv that played a central role in the coup that toppled the pro-Russian former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych.
> 
> “This mission constitutes a strong show of support to Ukraine and is a concrete demonstration of Canada’s commitment to the security, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Ukraine,” Nicholson said in a statement.
> 
> Canada’s participation “as lead inspectors constitute a concrete contribution to mitigating the crisis using existing arms control mechanisms,” said Maj.-Gen. Michael Hood, who is director of the strategic joint staff in Ottawa. “They possess the necessary training and experience to undertake missions of this nature.”
> 
> Where the Canadian-led team will conduct inspections has not yet been decided. They have been invited in by Ukraine because of “concerns of unusual military activity in the region,” a Department of National Defence statement said. The OSCE is made up of 57 participating states, including all NATO allies. “This mission constitutes a strong show of support to Ukraine and is a concrete demonstration of Canada’s commitment to the security, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Ukraine.”
> 
> Six CF-18 fighters jets as well as about 250 associated support crew members left Tuesday for Romania, where the aircraft will patrol with allies in a show of strength intended to reassure Poland and the Baltic States, and convince Russia to backdown. The frigate is crewed by 250 sailors, one of whom died last month while the ship was docked in Tanzania. Leading Seaman Brandon South was a sonar operator aboard the Regina. Officials said at the time they were still investigating his cause of death.
> 
> The announcement came as Ukrainian security forces were placed on full combat alert Wednesday after the acting president, Oleksandr Turchynov, told regional governors that his government’s security forces were “helpless” to stop pro-Russian militias in eastern Ukraine and must now try to save cities outside the region such as Odessa and Kharkiv from a similar fate.
> 
> Turchynov’s ominous declaration came as another swarm of armed supporters of union with Russia easily captured another municipal building and police headquarters in the eastern city of Horlivka and a city council building in the nearby town of Alchevsk. These unopposed takeovers — walkovers is more like it — followed by a day a similar action in the border city of Luhansk.
> 
> With Wednesday’s assaults, there were now at least 14 cities and towns in the coal and steel-producing Donbass region where separatists sympathetic to Moscow who call themselves part of the People’s Republic of Donetsk now appear to control the political destiny of several million Ukrainians.
> 
> In each case, Ukrainian police provided little resistance. In a few cases they joined those attacking the buildings they were supposed to be defending.
> 
> “Our main task is to prevent the terrorist threat from spreading to other regions of Ukraine,” Turchynov said as he announced the security alert. There was a “real danger of continental war (being) unleashed against Ukraine,” he said, alleging a campaign by Russian intelligence operatives and special forces troops to create chaos and fear.
> 
> The swift, apparently well coordinated takeovers were designed by “the Russian leadership” to prevent Ukraine from staging presidential elections scheduled to take place on May 25, Turchynov said. He became interim leader after a pro-western coup in Kyiv two months ago and is to step aside after the ballot.
> 
> The confused security situation across eastern Ukraine, which shares a long border with Russia, has created jitters everywhere. Perhaps nowhere are apprehensions higher than among the two million mostly ethnic Russians who live in the heavily industrialized city of Donetsk where separatist gangs seized municipal and regional offices on April 7.
> 
> With files from Lee Berthiaume



http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/04/30/as-canada-takes-over-leadership-of-military-observer-mission-in-ukraine-as-it-moves-warship-into-strategic-position/


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> *Canada takes over leadership of military observer mission in Ukraine as it moves warship into strategic position* ....
> 
> 
> 
> http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/04/30/as-canada-takes-over-leadership-of-military-observer-mission-in-ukraine-as-it-moves-warship-into-strategic-position/
Click to expand...

I'm guessing this team is replacing another team who's .... engaged elsewhere.

More from the Info-machine here:


> Three members of the Canadian Armed Forces from the Directorate of Arms Control Verification (DACV), as part of a nine person team, are leading a Vienna Document 2011(VD11) mission in Ukraine from 26 April to 11 May 2014.
> 
> In light of current events, Ukraine has requested that participating States from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) conduct a coordinated series of VD 2011 missions within Ukraine (except Crimea). This mission is being conducted in order to dispel concerns regarding unusual military activities in Ukraine, and to ensure a continuous international military presence on the ground.
> 
> Quick Facts
> 
> The Canadian Armed Forces members taking part on this mission are joined by representatives from France, the Republic of Moldova, Ukraine and the United States.  The mission marks the first time a VD11 visit has been led by Canada to Ukraine during the current crisis.
> 
> Canada provided two observers as part of the initial multinational military observer mission to Ukraine, at the outset of the Ukraine crisis in March 2014.
> 
> Canada is working in close cooperation with the Ukrainian authorities to determine the exact locations that will be subject to the inspections.
> 
> These inspections are at the invitation of Ukraine over concerns of unusual military activity in the region.
> 
> Canada is also prepared to contribute inspectors for similar missions in Ukraine led by other participating States from the OSCE.
> 
> Canada routinely and reguarly participates in OSCE missions in Eastern Europe.
> 
> The OSCE, the world’s largest regional security organization – comprised of 57 participating States, including all NATO Allies – has been employing a range of arms control and confidence- and security-building measures to respond to the crisis in Ukraine.
> 
> The VD11, a politically binding agreement amongst participating States of the OSCE, is one of the arms control mechanisms that has been used so far in Ukraine. Under the VD11, participating States can conduct inspections and observation visits to increase openness and transparency concerning military activities ....


God speed, folks!


----------



## The Bread Guy

A few updates:

One guesses things can't be going well for Ukraine if it's reinstating military conscription (UKR MoD, in Ukrainian).
NATO's Deputy Sec-Gen is reportedly using the word "adversary" to describe Russia to the media (although he used the term _conditionally_ - as in, _"If President Putin continues to guide Russia along its present path of aggression, confrontation and escalation, we will be forced to consider Russia less of a partner and more of an adversary"_ in a speech about a month ago - too).
Also, a lot of analysts and media seem to "trust" this guy, so here's his "here's the latest" map:


----------



## The Bread Guy

More of the latest:

Ukrainian security forces push on eastern Ukrainian city of Slavyansk - more 
Bing/Microsoft English translation:  reports of MANPADS**** shooting down Ukrainian military choppers in Slavyansk push (original in Ukrainian from Ukraine's Ministry of Defence)
_"Crimeans rush to the aid of the militia in the south- east of Ukraine"_  (RIA-Novosti, in Russian)
_"OSCE representatives conduct negotiations on liberation of group of military monitors captured on April 25 in Slavyansk"_ (UKR MoD)

**** -- Here's one theory re:  where NotRussian/separatist/federalist/pro-Russian/anti-Ukrainian forces could have gotten MANPADS.


----------



## The Bread Guy

New hotspot today:  Odessa - more here (Google News) and here (Twitter).


----------



## Old Sweat

And the Patricias are off to Poland. This story from National Newswatch, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act, reports that a platoon from 3 PPCLI will be joining Allied troops on an exercise in Poland.

*Cda sending soldiers for exercises in Poland*

By The Canadian Press — CP — May 2 2014

LONDON, Ont. - Canadian soldiers will take part in military exercises in Poland as part of NATO reassurance measures in response to the Ukraine crisis, Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced Friday.

"The (Vladimir) Putin regime's persistent military aggression and its ongoing illegal occupation of Crimea and other parts of Ukraine threaten the stability and security of central and eastern Europe," he said in London, Ont.

The NATO exercises will run in Swidwin, Poland from May 5 to 9 and will include about 50 soldiers from the 3rd Canadian Division based in Edmonton, comprised of a platoon from 3rd Battalion, Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry and support staff. They were set to leave Friday, Harper's office said in a news release.

"They will conduct training in parachuting, airborne operations and infantry skills alongside Polish and American counterparts in this United States-led exercise with a view to enhancing Alliance interoperability and readiness," the prime minister's office said in the statement.

Canada has also diverted frigate HMCS Regina, which is currently on counter-terrorism and anti-piracy patrols in the Arabian Sea, to help NATO's efforts to send a message of resolve to Russia.

Harper did not say where the ship is headed, but NATO announced earlier this month it was beefing up maritime patrols in both the Baltic Sea and the Mediterranean.

Six Canadian CF-18 fighter jets left their base in Bagotville, Que., this week, headed for an air base in Romania, and eventual patrols along that country's border with Ukraine — and possibly over the Black Sea.

The government also said this week that a Canadian military officer is heading an international arms-control verification team investigating "unusual military activity" in Ukraine, but the inspections won't include the disputed Crimea region, which was annexed by Russia.

National Defence has also announced that a team of navy clearance divers would deploy next month for an exercise in Latvia, one of the Baltic states under threat.

_- mod edit to embed story link in headline -_


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some highlights ....

Initial reports of at least 30 ProRussian/separatist/federalist folks killed as the other side takes back labour building in Odessa (Google News)
_"*Slavyansk: Servicemen of 95th Detached Airborne Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces repel attacks of armed extremists* -- As of 21.30, near Slavyansk a group of armed extremists attacked with small arms the servicemen of the 95th Detached Airborne Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Currently, it is known that two Ukrainian servicemen are killed ...."_  (UKR MoD)


----------



## The Bread Guy

More of the latest:

Fighting in Kramatorsk - more (European Commission news aggregator
Odessa's top cop canned, probe under way****, two days mourning as death toll from yesterday's fracas passes 40
Alleged MANPAD firers nabbed by Ukrainian authorities (Interfax-Ukraine)

**** - link to Ukrainian MoD statement in Ukrainian


----------



## Kirkhill

Heads up for Friday May 9.

Moldova Standing-To



> Events that can generate profound crisis likely on May 9
> 
> 3 may 2014, 17:46
> 
> The Supreme Security Council of Moldova, including the National Army, must be on the alert because events that can generate a profound crisis are possible on May 9, director of the Institute for Political Analysis and Consultancy "Politicon" Anatol Taranu said in the program "Fabrika" on Publika TV channel.
> 
> Political commentator Roman Mihaes considers that Russia will try to thwart the signing of the Association Agreement because, after the accord is signed, Moldova will be politically protected by the EU. "Russia, if it pursues expansionist policies in this area, will come face to face with the EU," he stated.
> 
> Political analyst Nicolae Negru noted that the developments in Ukraine are not accidental "It is a maneuver aimed at moving the separatist hotbed to Odessa so as to destabilize the situation," he said.
> 
> The invitees of the program underlined the necessity of the Moldovan authorities holding talks with the Western states so that they are assisted if need be.



Also note this report:



> 300 hurt and 36 killed in Odessa clashes
> 
> 3 may 2014, 15:42
> 
> Ukrainian rescuers took over 300 persons out of the Trade Unions House in Odessa, which caught fire in the afternoon of May 2. Thirty-six persons died in the blaze, IPN reports.
> 
> The fire started as a result of violent clashes between Pro-Russians and groups of supporters of the pro-European administration of Ukraine. Bottles with an inflammable substance were thrown into the government building. The authorities announced that the flames engulfed two of the upper stories of the building. Many people suffered injuries when jumping out. *The press reported that those who died included Moldovans living in the Transnistrian region.*
> 
> The doctors in Odessa called on the residents of the city to donate blood for those who were seriously hurt. A number of mobile points were set up for the purpose.
> 
> The government announced three days of national morning for the victims of the Odessa clashes starting with May 3.



Transnistria is the Russophile section of Moldova, one hour Northwest of Odessa, that doesn't recognize Moldovan suzerainty and that Russia has reinforced with additional troops (just as in Crimea).

That would suggest that the Odessa "insurrection" is also Moscow driven.


----------



## Cdn Blackshirt

Putin is not a man to be trusted.....


----------



## wannabe SF member

_Au contraire._

He can be trusted to act in what he perceives to be his empire's interest and in an unpredictable fashion to boot.


----------



## The Bread Guy

More tidbits ....

_"Heavy fighting after Ukrainian forces ambushed on edge of Slaviansk"_ - more (European Commission news aggregator)
_“Security Service seized from illegal traffic in hazardous radioactive substance – Counterintelligence Security Service of Ukraine seized a source of ionizing radiation to the possible content of uranium -235 weighing about 1.5 kg ….”_  (Security Service of Ukraine, in Ukrainian)
New top UKR cop named in Odessa Region (UKR Ministry of Interior, in Ukrainian)
_“Russian Foreign Ministry presents White Book on human rights abuses in Ukraine – The main task of the White Book is to familiarize the public with real facts and reports on developments in Ukraine ….”_  (ITAR-TASS)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some of the latest:

UKR names new Army boss (Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, in Ukrainian)
_“Ukraine says more than 30 separatists killed in Slaviansk fighting”_  (European Commission news aggregator)
_“Ukrainian Police Confirm 46 Dead, 3 Missing in Odessa Clashes” _  (RIA Novosti)
_“Events in Odessa on May 2 are ‘act of genocide’ – (Russian) State Duma Speaker”_  (Voice of Russia)


----------



## observor 69

Always great to hear from the German perspective as voiced by Der Spiegel (in English).

Editorial: No Special Path for Germany in Ukraine Crisis

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/spiegel-editorial-on-the-ukraine-crisis-a-967586.html


----------



## Kirkhill

To the editors of Der Spiegel:






War is politics by other means.  But war is not just bullets flying.  War is the active struggle to impose a desired endstate.  Open warfare only occurs when one side fails to read the other side and things go pear-shaped.

Unfortunately for Der Spiegel, the Germans, the West and Putin things are going pear-shaped - and there is no realistic breathing space available.  Every space plays to Putin's advantage. The only options now are to push back hard -  More forward deployments of significant forces.   Start with Moldova and Transnistria.  Start with Eastern Poland.  Start with the Baltic.  Start with the Black Sea.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Star with the banks ...

Organize, secretly, the EU, Australia, Canada, America, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong and China to refuse to buy Russian bonds. Let them eat grass.


----------



## observor 69

Start with the rich Russian money stashed in banks, businesses and real estate outside Russia.

Very informative interview with Russia’s former foreign minister discussing Putin’s motivations in Ukraine.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/russias-former-foreign-minister-discusses-putins-motivations-ukraine/


----------



## observor 69

And some more writing on the same vein as Der Spiegel :

Why Germans Love Russia

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/06/opinion/why-germans-love-russia.html?hp&rref=opinion


----------



## The Bread Guy

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Star with the banks ...
> 
> Organize, secretly, the EU, Australia, Canada, America, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong and China to refuse to buy Russian bonds. Let them eat grass.


Good idea - as a China watcher, E.R.C., how would one get the folks in orange above onside?  Especially given China's support (so far) of Russia?


----------



## Edward Campbell

A few years ago (2009?) the Russian proposed to the Chinese that they (China) have a _fire sale_ of their (massive) US bond holdings - it _might_ have come very, very near to causing a full blown American collapse. The Chinese both *a)* declined and *b)* warned the US of Russia's games. The Chinese rationale was, and still is, simple: America is the largest and (despite many, many problems) the most diverse and productive economy in the world; China needs America. China wants, even needs Russian resources but its economic relationship with Russia is nothing like its relationship with the USA.

The Chinese _despise_ the Russians. ( I don't think _despise_ is too strong a word - it's a cultural thing, cultural chauvinism at its worst.) They may, often do, make common cause with them against the West, but that's tactics, not strategy. _Strategically_ China is trying to build a bi-polar world order in which a Chinese led Asia _competes_ in all marketplaces, including the marketplace of ideas, with the US led West and, slowly but surely, gains ascendancy over it. Russia doesn't count: it's not Asian and it's not Western, it's just there. The (many? just some?) Chinese believe that, sooner or later Asian Russia, Central and Eastern Siberia, everything East of the Yenisei River, will be _separate_ from Russia - not Chinese, but not Russian, either. If the Chinese feel that _economic warfare_ against Russia will further their own long term interest they might join in. Hong Kong will join if it is a concerted Western effort that will, likely, return a profit.


----------



## PanaEng

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Good idea - as a China watcher, E.R.C., how would one get the folks in orange above onside?  Especially given China's support (so far) of Russia?


Another thing that article does not mention (interestingly so) is Taiwan; could also mention  areas in Vietnam and the SCS and disputed Islands; and although Mongolia may seem too far fetched, they would not explicitly exclude it. There is a strong parallel there and China is all ears and eyes on these developments and the reaction of the West.


----------



## Kirkhill

Baden Guy said:
			
		

> And some more writing on the same vein as Der Spiegel :
> 
> Why Germans Love Russia
> 
> http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/06/opinion/why-germans-love-russia.html?hp&rref=opinion



And guess who was in charge of the Dating Agency?



> After a few years spying on foreigners in Leningrad, Putin was summoned to Moscow in the early 1980s to attend the elite foreign intelligence training institute, and then was assigned to East Germany. He arrived in Dresden at age 32 when East Germany was a major focus of Moscow's attention. The German Democratic Republic was home to 380,000 Soviet troops and Soviet intermediate-range missiles. Berlin was a constant source of Cold War tensions and intrigue.
> 
> At the time, several thousand KGB officers reported to a headquarters at Karlshorst, outside Berlin; Soviet military intelligence also was stationed in East Germany. But the biggest intelligence operation was the East German secret police, the Stasi, who monitored hundreds of thousands of citizens and kept millions of documents on file.
> 
> The broad Stasi network was used often by the KGB, and the raw intelligence sent directly to Moscow. The East German dictatorship, headed in those years by Erich Honecker, remained steadfastly rigid even as Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev was beginning to experiment with political and economic reforms at home.
> 
> In Dresden, the KGB outpost at No. 4 Angelikastrasse was located directly across the street from the city's main Stasi headquarters. The Stasi poked into every aspect of life; in Dresden alone, the documents they preserved on citizens now stretch nearly seven miles in the archives here, according to Konrad Felber, a spokesman for the commission that maintains the documents.
> 
> 
> The former headquarters of the Stasi secret police in Dresden, East Germany. ( TWP - David Hoffman )
> There is little information about Putin's specific tasks in Dresden, but specialists and documents point to several assignments, including recruiting and preparing agents. The work likely involved Robotron, a Dresden-based electronics conglomerate, which was the Eastern Bloc's largest mainframe computer maker and a microchip research center.
> 
> At the time, a major KGB effort was underway to steal Western technology. The Soviet Bloc was so far behind, according to a German specialist, that agents at Stasi headquarters often preferred to work on a Western-made Commodore personal computer rather than on their office mainframe.
> 
> The presence of Robotron may have provided Putin with legends for sending technicians to the West, or for recruiting Westerners who came to East Germany from such large electronics companies as Siemans or IBM. Putin may also have been interested in military electronics and intelligence about NATO from informers in the West.
> 
> The KGB was known to the Stasi as "the friends," and it relied on the Stasi for support. For years, the Stasi prepared fake passports and driver's licenses for "the friends" to create cover stories for agents. Tens of thousands of people in East Germany were "registered," or marked in the secret files of the Stasi, as being "of interest" to the KGB. According to the German specialist, some were marked because the KGB was searching for people with plausible cover stories for trips abroad.
> 
> "You needed a guy with a background that looked good, a professor who had to go to an international conference or had to do business in the West," he said. "You needed such a legend."
> 
> Later, Erich Mielke, the East German state security minister, tried to rein in the Stasi's assistance to the KGB, which led to one case in which Putin is known to have been involved. On March 29, 1989, Maj. Gen. Horst Bohm, then the head of the Dresden branch of the Stasi, wrote a memo to Putin's boss, Gen. Vladimir Shirokov. While some names in the letter are blacked out, sources said the case involved Putin.
> 
> Bohm complained the KGB was recruiting reservists from the East German military who had gone into civilian life. They were being recruited "frequently" for temporary, special missions, Bohm said.
> 
> One reservist was called in, he said, to the Dresden "recruitment center" and was sent to talk with two Soviet civilians. "These talks included the issue of special training for wireless communications and also a short mission once each quarter of the year," the letter says. But Bohm complained that the agent was already working for the Stasi and urged the KGB to keep its hands off. "It is not possible" to recruit the East German army reservists for wireless communications training, he insisted.
> 
> Bohm later committed suicide, but one of his aides, Horst Jemlich, said in a brief telephone interview that the KGB was interested in procuring Western technology.
> 
> A puzzling and unexplained aspect of the Bohm letter is a reference to Soviet "military intelligence," which was a different agency from the KGB, to which Putin belonged. It is possible Putin was targeting Western military operations.
> 
> Putin also turned to the Stasi for help with routine logistics, such as obtaining a telephone – they were strictly controlled – and apartments. Putin was formally assigned to run a Soviet-German "friendship house" in Leipzig and carried out the duties, but this apparently was his own cover story. Intelligence specialists and political scientists said Putin may have had a political assignment to make contact with East Germans who were sympathetic to Gorbachev, such as the Dresden party leader Hans Modrow, in case the Honecker regime collapsed.
> 
> Putin's work with the Stasi won him a bronze medal in November 1987 from the East German security service, but the reasons for the award are unknown. It was described by one source as the next level up from the lowest, basic award for service.



The greatest tool that was put in Putin's hands was all of those true-believers, fellow-travellers and "friends"  that became instant agents at the heart of the European Project after the wall fell.  He not only had access to the small faction of disenchanted "West Germans" to influence Bonn and thus Brussels but now he had all of the Apparatchiks of the East voting in German elections and creating new European policy.  Socialists and Greens, Climate Change and Putin - all, conveniently, served Russian interests.  Now it seems that Schroeder did as well.

Perhaps not all the Osti were popping corks when the wall fell.


----------



## vonGarvin

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> Perhaps not all the Osti were popping corks when the wall fell.


No they weren't.  Many did not want to become part of the very thing they grew up to loathe.  And that divide is still there, almost 24 years later.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some of the latest ....

Some UKR Interior Ministry HR changes:  military aged cops get to avoid military service and retired cops helping "protect public order" in "special units" get to keep collecting their pensions - with a pep talk from Ukraine's top cop to boot (all links in Ukrainian)
Ukraine “tightens cordon” around Slovyansk – more (European Commission news aggregator)
_“Breedlove Says NATO May Need Permanent Troops in East Europe”_  (Bloomberg)


----------



## Kirkhill

Technoviking said:
			
		

> No they weren't.  Many did not want to become part of the very thing they grew up to loathe.  And that divide is still there, almost 24 years later.



And it shows as NATO mulls rearmament (Deutsche Welle)

See also this thread on redeploying 4 CMBG and NATO armaments.

http://army.ca/forums/threads/101118/post-1307853#msg1307853



> NATO Members Mull Rearmament
> 
> 
> (Source: Deutsche Welle German radio; posted May 7, 2014)
> 
> 
> 
> NATO Secretary General Rasmussen is asking for increased armaments due to the Ukraine crisis. But many in Germany see overwhelming strength in NATO and don't view Crimea as a catalyst for instant upgrades.
> 
> 
> "After all that we have experienced in Ukraine, we will undoubtedly place more weight on defending territorial integrity in the future," said NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen in an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung newspaper.
> 
> The annexation of Crimea by Russia, he added, was a turning point in NATO's security policy, comparable to the fall of the Berlin Wall and the attacks on September 11, 2001."We must react to this situation," said Rasmussen. His answer? Armament.
> 
> "We can't carry on as before."
> 
> For many European countries, that had previously meant cutting defense spending after the end of the Cold War. Germany in 1990, for example, spent 2.8 percent of GDP on defense; today it spends 1.3 percent.
> 
> NATO recommends two percent, but hardly any member country hits this target. Russia, by contrast, generally spends more than four percent on its military and is investing large amounts to upgrade military equipment considered to be outdated. It wants to spend 600 billion euros ($835 billion) on new weapons by 2020, according to Alexander S. Neu, a Left Party politician on the defense committee of German parliament.
> 
> Russia as bogeyman
> 
> Defense expert Neu doubts, however, that Russia will be able to raise that much money. He also thinks the Russian threat to Europe is overestimated.
> 
> "Not a single NATO country is in any way threatened," he told DW."It's artificial hysteria which is used to improve the public image of NATO." The defense alliance has lost its old bogeyman - the Soviet Union - and now Russia has to serve as bogeyman once more, he says.
> 
> Nor does the German government support the Secretary General's demands for armament. German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen recently said on German television that, for now, Europe's priority is to further increase its regained economic stability.
> 
> Security expert Christian Mölling at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin (SWP) says that's particularly true with regard to countries like Spain, Italy and also France.
> 
> "These countries are battling against a completely different enemy - problems in their social and fiscal systems. And that's far more important than spending more money on armament and the military," he told DW.
> 
> Defense Minister von der Leyen thinks that it's not about "raising the defense budget."
> 
> "NATO is strong," she says, "and I think Russia knows that."
> 
> Superiority with weak points
> 
> That strength, says defense expert Mölling, is in the numbers. "European NATO members alone outnumber Russia. That applies for the number of troops as well as for the size of the tank fleet and other military units."And NATO also is qualitatively superior to Russia," he added.
> 
> While NATO certainly has some weak points, they're unrelated to the Crimea crisis, according to Mölling. The defense alliance has to invest in drone and satellite reconnaissance and in logistics, for example, and in large transport aircrafts.
> 
> "We need to spend money on things like that, but that's not new."
> 
> These acquisitions, he says, should be purchased in masse. Were they projects and purchases to be made transnationally, up to 30 percent of the cost could be saved.
> 
> Utilize potential savings
> 
> The transnational aspect is what Left Party politician Neu views as unfeasible. "That generally doesn't work too well. When the division of labor is too wide, the defense suppliers don't work well together."
> 
> Current co-operations are exemplary: The Eurofighter warplane, with its difficulties in the development process, or the A400M military transport aircraft, whose development costs ballooned.
> 
> Those costs could be reduced, according to military experts, if countries were to take special responsibility for a single military task: Great Britain might provide the navy, for example, with Germany responsible for logistics and transport.
> 
> Neu, however, says such a scenario is politically questionable.
> 
> "Such projects create a participatory mechanism. If the majority of the countries want a military operation, then Germany would be more or less forced to take part in it because of the multinational military staff."
> 
> In that line of reasoning, national parliaments like Germany's Bundestag, which typically has the decision-making authority in issues of deployment, would be subordinated.
> 
> Parting shot
> 
> Not one of the experts thinks the Ukraine crisis should mark the beginning of a new arms race, as NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen has requested.
> 
> SWP expert Mölling would like to see armament "in homeopathic doses and at the right place." He added that, "We are not talking about hundreds of billions of euros, as Rasmussen is currently dreaming of."
> 
> Mölling sees Rasmussen's statement as a parting shot at the end of his time in office. NATO will have a new Secretary General by autumn.
> 
> Alexander S. Neu goes a step further, suggesting Rasmussen is a "Washington man" who intends to transplant US military costs onto European shoulders.
> 
> "The Europeans are increasingly having to undertake tasks which, up until now, had been managed by the US alone. That's why [the Europeans] are supposed to beef up their defense budgets."
> 
> The Left politician also added that he views Rasmussen as the executive body of US policy wishes.




The Left/left argument is that everything is too hard, takes too long, costs too much, is impossible and unnecessary....... and NATO isn't legitimate in any event 

Collective when necessary but not necessarily collective.

Meanwhile Putin


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> Collective when necessary but not necessarily collective.


There's a t-shirt slogan right there.


----------



## Kirkhill

And from Moldova ...

May 9th is what was known as VE-Day or Victory in Europe.

This article explains why it is a flash point - It is related to ongoing battles over Soviet war memorials, Lenin statues, the use of Russian and the presence of Russian "settlers" left over from the Armies of Occupation/Liberation



> Russia will not hesitate to profit from May 9 to show its influence on Moldova
> 7 may 2014, 15:32 print out copy link Share to Facebook Share to Twitter Share to LiveJournal Share to Delicious
> In the current regional situation, Russia will not hesitate to profit from the day of May 9 to ostentatiously show the influence it has on Moldova, considers Lina Grau, expert of the Foreign Policy Association (APE). Asked by IPN to pronounce on the issue, she said the concerns about possible provocations on May 9 are fully justified given the situation in the region.
> 
> “Regretfully, the probability that conflicts will be avoided on this day is the lowest. The date of May 9 always aroused controversy in Moldovan society. The Soviet-style commemoration events with red flags always disgusted the pro-European side of society, especially the young people and the Romanian-language speaker. They prefer Moldova to celebrate Europe Day on May 9, alongside the European community which our country hopes to join,” stated Lina Grau.
> 
> She is convinced that on May 9 we will witness the mobilization of the pro-Russian parties, the young people and the part of civil society that are financed by Moscow. They will march through public places all over the country, carrying red flags and bicolor black and orange ribbons. “A small rehearsal took place on May 5, when a ribbon of several dozen meters was stretched around the Government Building. The demonstration will serve as a background for the visit to Tiraspol by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitrii Rogozin, who is known for his threats to the pro-European course of Chisinau,” said Lina Grau. She expressed her fear that there may be provocations aimed at causing conflicts or even confrontation and at increasing tensions to the maximum.
> 
> Lina Grau stated she would like the Moldovan authorities to have clarified the May 9 subject long ago. The cohesion of the political class was needed to declare this day a day of European solidarity. “Unfortunately, now we are in a very unfavorable moment to do this. What the authorities can do now is to make effort to keep the situation under control, not to stir things up and to prevent violence,” she added.
> 
> The expert believes that May 9 will reveal the division degree of the Moldovan society, on the one hand, and the geopolitical offensive of Russia aimed at restoring the former USSR, on the other hand. The next six months will be decisive for Moldova’s European course and will determine its future over the next decades.
> 
> A number of political parties announced their programs for May 9. Some of them celebrate the Day of Victory over fascism, while others Europe Day.


----------



## McG

No movement is visible to NATO, but Russia claims it has pulled its forces away from the Ukraine boarder and Putin is encouraging the separatists to *not* conduct independence referendums on Sunday ... at least, with his public voice he is sending this message. 

Positive signs perhaps?


----------



## The Bread Guy

MCG said:
			
		

> No movement is visible to NATO, but Russia claims it has pulled its forces away from the Ukraine boarder and Putin is encouraging the separatists to *not* conduct independence referendums on Sunday ... at least, with his public voice he is sending this message.
> 
> Positive signs perhaps?


Interesting - 4 days ago, Putin's spokesperson said they couldn't control the E.Ukrainian "federalists".  What a difference 4 days makes.

Then again, if Ukraine is OK to talk (UKR cabinet statement, in Ukrainian), the EU is OK to talk and Russia is OK to talk, one keeps one's fingers crossed for better days.


----------



## Kirkhill

Daily Telegraph

Not a big believer in photographs as indicators of much of anything (air-brushing, editors, sources all have their impact) but this photo doesn't suggest that Vlad is his usual ebullient self.






In recent weeks his buddies have had their accounts frozen, their mobility impeded, the value of their stock holdings slashed and the Europeans and Canadians talking about taking his source of income away entirely.  In addition Visa and Mastercard have put all transactions on hold and Putin has been forced to stand up his on Visa-ski system in very short order. 

 http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/visa-mastercard-face-restrictions-in-russia-1.2634954

Forget the RT robo-polls - Putin's image is whatever his "backers" want it to be.  If he is screwing up he won't last any longer than Trotsky on a Mexican vacation.


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Then again, if Ukraine is OK to talk (UKR cabinet statement, in Ukrainian) ....


Things can change mighty quick, no?


> Today Presidents of the Russian Federation and the OSCE Chair Switzerland announced intents to de-escalate the situation in Ukraine.
> 
> Despite a front of the "good faith" gesture, the content and rhetoric that were voiced at the Kremlin have nothing in common with true search of a settlement.
> 
> Discussion of the peaceful settlement in Ukraine, but without Ukraine is senseless and unacceptable.
> 
> Instead of statements we need real actions.
> 
> First of all, Russia should implement obligations assumed under Geneva accords and distance itself from terrorist activities in the east of Ukraine, publicly call upon separatist factions to lay down their arms and cease actions by subversive groups.
> 
> Withdrawal of Russian armed forces from Ukrainian borders should be genuinely confirmed.
> 
> Any so-called "terrorist referenda" in the east of our country are illegal by definition. Thus, an appeal to «postpone» them is just a mockery and by no means a sign of goodwill. Such scenario Russia has already implemented in Crimea.
> 
> Substitution of notions should be terminated. There is no civil war in Ukraine. The essence of the conflict is aggression of the Russian Federation against our country, occupation of Crimea and impudent interference in internal affairs, accompanied by support for terrorist actions against Ukrainian citizens and territorial integrity of the state.
> 
> (....)
> 
> Ukraine welcomes and supports the important role of the OSCE in international efforts aimed at de-escalating the situation. Particularly valuable will be those efforts of the Organization that will facilitate continuation of a nationwide dialogue in Ukraine, implementation of a mandate of the Special Monitoring Mission and engagement of international observers to monitor the elections of the President of Ukraine on May 25, 2014.
> 
> The statements made on May 7th in Moscow demonstrate the first results of consolidated international pressure on the Kremlin in response to the aggression committed against Ukraine.
> 
> The position of our country consistently remains open to dialogue in bilateral and multilateral dimensions, as well as aimed at peacefully averting threats to Ukraine and our people.


Sounds like OSCE+Russia Talking-UKR in the room = Talking Behind UKR's back ....


----------



## CougarKing

Meanwhile in neighbouring Georgia...

*Take note that this was the same frigate that ran aground in the Black Sea before/during last February's Olympics.

Defense News



> *US Warship Arrives in Georgia Amid Ukraine Crisis*
> May. 8, 2014 - 02:06PM   |   By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
> 
> BATUMI, GEORGIA — A US warship arrived on Thursday in Georgia’s port of Batumi, the US embassy said, sending a message of support to NATO allies amid the spiraling crisis in neighboring Ukraine.
> 
> *The USS Taylor’s “presence in Georgia reaffirms the United States’ commitment to strengthening ties with NATO allies and partners like Georgia, while working toward mutual goals of promoting peace and stability in the region,” the embassy said in a statement.*
> 
> The US 6th Fleet frigate arrived in Georgia for three days of exercises with the country’s coastguard in the Black Sea after completing joint live-fire exercises and an anti-submarine warfare scenario along with Romanian ships
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## The Bread Guy

This (in Russian) from lenta.ru, a Russian online news service owned by a Russian oligarch magnate - shared - highlights mine - without comment:


> On Thursday, may 8, in an informal meeting of the heads of States members of the collective security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Together with his counterparts from Belarus, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan President Vladimir Putin visited management training the armed forces of Russia. The main topic of the meeting was the development of the situation in Ukraine. *Experts do not rule out that Moscow is preparing to conduct a peacekeeping operation in Ukraine and is seeking the support of allies*.
> 
> Visit of the Presidents of Belarus, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan was not planned in advance. Alexander Lukashenko, SERZH SARGSYAN, Almazbek Atambaev, and Emomali Rahmon, Vladimir Putin summoned to Moscow for urgent talks, the main theme of which is the situation in Ukraine. The invitation was initially with military overtones. The heads of State attended a training session on the management of the armed forces of Russia. Reflection and practice of a nuclear strike, according to the Russian Commander-in-chief, was successful. The Ukrainian question will now be discussed by Putin and in bilateral meetings with colleagues.
> 
> ( .... )
> 
> According to experts, the escalation of violence in Ukraine can lead to the need of the Russian peacekeeping intervention. Furthermore, the preparation of such an operation, in fact, is already underway. So, the militia managed to open the Grand Prince in Lugansk region between Russia and Ukraine for the free movement of people and technology. In parallel, over the past week, a group of 20 people managed to destroy several Ukrainian RADAR, undercutting any Ukrainian army control over part of its airspace. President of the Academy of geopolitical problems, Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov said that Ukraine should enter a peacekeeping force under the auspices of CSTO. Head of strategic planning for the Association of cross-border cooperation Alexander Sobyanin believes that use of the CSTO for peacekeeping operation in Ukraine "is not necessary. "Russia could announce its decision to introduce a peacekeeping contingent to protect innocent citizens from the Nazis ' violent and seek to Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and some other States to support the anti-Nazi stance of Russia's participation in peacekeeping operation in Ukraine, said the Tape Ministry Sobyanin ....


More in the Bing/MS translation here.


----------



## CougarKing

A real Russian Colonel or another "Walt" in Russian fatigues?  ;D

Agence France Presse



> *Purported Russian colonel tapped to lead Ukraine rebels*
> 
> By: Agence France-Presse
> May 9, 2014 7:26 PM
> 
> SLAVYANSK - On the same day that Russian President Putin is in Crimea to preside over a massive parade commemmorating a WW2 victory, pro-Russian rebels fighting in eastern Ukraine on Friday tapped a man authorities in Kiev suspect is a colonel in the Russian security services to lead their insurgency.
> 
> *Igor Strelkov, currently heading the militants in the flashpoint city of Slavyansk*, has been "put forward" to become "the commander of all self-defence forces in (the region of) Donbass," said the self-proclaimed governor of Donetsk, Pavlo Gubarev.
> 
> Gubarev was addressing a large crowd in Slavyansk, which has become the epicentre of rebel activity, as the town of more than 110,000 marked the anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany.
> 
> *Strelkov, 43, is known to the Ukrainian secret service as Russian GRU colonel Igor Girkin who lives in Moscow. He denies this.
> 
> He was linked to the capture and detention of seven OSCE monitors in Slavyansk who were eventually released* after an eight-day ordeal following intervention from Moscow.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## CougarKing

Seems Putin overlooked something critical when he took Crimea...  ;D



> *Russian Military Needs Ukrainian Spare Parts: Kiev's arms embargo could cripple the Kremlin*
> Michael Peck
> War is Boring
> 
> *Russia can nuke Ukraine off the map. But those Russian nukes can't fly without Ukrainian spare parts.*
> 
> While Russia only obtains 4.4 percent of its total imports from Ukraine, around 30 percent of Ukrainian military exports to Russia "are unique and cannot currently be substituted by Russian production."
> 
> Now Russia is about to find out why it's better to have Ukraine as a friend than as an enemy. Ukroboronprom, the Ukrainian state-owned conglomerate that controls military production, has frozen arms sales to Russia.
> 
> This is bad news for Russia's Strategic Rocket Forces. Its *SS-18 ICBMs* are designed, manufactured and maintained by Ukraine's state-owned Yuzhmash enterprise in Dnepropetrovsk. The *SS-19 and SS-25 ICBMs* are designed and produced in Russia, but their guidance systems come from the Khartron company in Kharkov.
> 
> These three types account for more than 80 percent of the missiles in Russia's rocket forces.
> 
> 
> *Also:*
> - 20 per cent of the natural uranium currently consumed by Russia's nuclear industry comes from Zholti Vody in Ukraine.
> 
> - Russia requires Ukrainian-produced gears for 60 percent of the surface combatants planned for its navy.
> 
> - Ukraine's Motor-Sich plant manufactures jet engines for Russian transport aircraft, engines for all Russian combat and transport helicopters and auxiliary power units for many types of aircraft and helicopters.
> 
> - Ukraine also makes auxiliary equipment, such as hydraulics and drogue parachutes, for advanced Russian fighters such as the *Su-27*, *Su-30* and *Su-35*.
> 
> - Ukrainian companies manufacture the *R-27 air-to-air missile* as well as seekers for the *R-73* carried by those fighters.
> 
> 
> 
> *War Is Boring/Medium.com*


----------



## tomahawk6

All the more reason for Putin to absorb the entire country.


----------



## The Bread Guy

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> Seems Putin overlooked something critical when he took Crimea...  ;D


A bit more detail about what bits get made where in a Brit think tank study here.


----------



## wannabe SF member

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> All the more reason for Putin to absorb the entire country.



Why? So he can sit behind a wall of nukes in a ruined economy. The Russians will have his head if he can't provide them the prosperity they sacrificed their freedoms for.

Just as the Europeans can diversify their energy sources in time, the Russians can develop their own production capabilities in the mid term. I still believe that this whole thing is happening to make us forget about Crimea.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MOAR folks on Canada's naughty list ....


> Canada is imposing economic sanctions against the following Ukrainian and Russian individuals who bear political responsibility for the crisis:
> 
> Russian Individuals
> 
> -Valery Vasilevich Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, First Deputy Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation, General of the Army.
> -Igor Girkin (also known as Igor Strelkov), member of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
> -Sergei Ivanovich Menyailo, acting Governor of the Ukrainian annexed city of Sevastopol and former Russian Black Sea Fleet Assistant Commander.
> -Sergei Ivanovich Neverov, Deputy Chairman of State Duma, United Russia.
> -Oleg Genirokhovich Savelyev, Minister for Crimean Affairs.
> -Ludmila Ivanovna Shvetsova, Deputy Chairman of State Duma, United Russia.
> 
> Ukrainian Individuals
> 
> -Olga Fedorovna Kovatidi, member of the Russian Federation Council from the annexed Autonomous Republic of Crimea.
> -German Prokopiv, active leader of the “Luhansk Guard” and a leader of the youth wing.
> -Valeriy Bolotov, retired officer, chair of airborne troop veterans of Luhansk oblast.
> -Andriy Purgin, head of the self declared “DonetskRepublic”.
> -Denys Pushylin, one of the leaders of the self declared “DonetskRepublic”.
> -Sergey Gennadevich Tsyplakov, one of the leaders of the ideologically radical organization “People’s Militia of Donbass”.


More from the PM here.


----------



## tomahawk6

http://www.armytimes.com/article/20140513/NEWS08/305130043/Russia-no-longer-needs-invade-Ukraine-analysts-say

European analysts say there is no need for Russia to invade eastern Ukraine now that it has gained ultimate authority over much of the country by its takeover of Crimea and declarations of independence in the pro-Russian east.

"The referendum actually advantages Russia," Keir Giles, analyst at Chatham House's International Security and Russia and Eurasia Program London.

"They do not need to have physical control of these regions to achieve their objective for the Ukraine, which is always has been to render Ukraine ungovernable."


----------



## Kirkhill

Example:

Odessa 

Odessa is not held by Russia - but - pinched between Crimea and Transdnistria and with rioting in the streets (40 plus victims)  Odessa is not considered a viable port for international trade.

Russia has land-locked Ukraine.

Unfortunately they have recreated Ukraine on its border.  Ukraine was, as I understand it, the name for the ungovernable wildlands.  Something like a cross between the Anglo-Scots Border, Ireland and the Wild West.    So if Western Ukraine signs up with the EU and both Russia and Ukraine claiming the East then Russia will have independent criminals operating on its borders.

Putin can't rely on his eastern front - Kazakhstan etc are not following suit.  He can't control his Western Borders - Poland and the Balts (and Scandinavians) won't allow it.  Leaving an ungovernable south will not assist in his campaigns in the Caucasus against his "Muslim Hordes".  Equally his recognition of referenda on membership leaves him vulnerable on the propaganda front to internal "separatist" referenda.  Failure to recognize them will result in further tensions between the Russians of Russia and the Civic Russians (ethnics).

I don't think he has the tools at hand to be able to keep all those forces in line.


----------



## MilEME09

While I agree with you fully Kirkhill, I also think Putin may be loosing control of his puppets in eastern Ukraine who are now more after their own ambitions and not concerned by Putin's time table and carefully planned Chess game.


----------



## The Bread Guy

> The Conservative government is preparing to keep Canadian warplanes on a NATO mission in Romania for another three months and possibly until late 2014, military purchasing documents indicate.
> 
> The government has declined to give Canadians a timeline for its new military commitment to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s reassurance mission in Europe, a deployment intended to safeguard NATO’s European members anxious over Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.
> 
> (....)
> 
> .... new records show Ottawa is making plans to station military planes in Romania until at least August and possibly an additional three months.
> 
> The federal government Wednesday posted a notice of proposed procurement for the supply and delivery of bulk aviation fuel to Romania. The deadline for responses to a Canadian government contact in Germany is May 26.



Bulk fuel purchase notice here (also attached in case link doesn't work).


----------



## Journeyman

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> .... new records show Ottawa is making plans to station military planes in Romania until at least August and possibly an additional three months.



Strategic cynicism:
"Look government; look how absolutely vital fighter aircraft are.....imagine how awesome Canada would be with F-35s"


Tactical cynicism:
With the Op UNIFIED PROTECTOR - LIBYA medal precedent of requiring 30 consecutive or 60 cumulative days in location....even more fighter-types will have the opportunity to rotate through and get_ something _on their DEU to offset the absence of an Afghan medal.


----------



## dapaterson

Journeyman said:
			
		

> Tactical cynicism:
> With the Op UNIFIED PROTECTOR - LIBYA medal precedent of requiring 30 consecutive or 60 cumulative days in location....even more fighter-types will have the opportunity to rotate through and get_ something _on their DEU _*new leather jacket*_ to offset the absence of an Afghan medal.




FTFY


----------



## dimsum

Journeyman said:
			
		

> Strategic cynicism:
> "Look government; look how absolutely vital fighter aircraft are.....imagine how awesome Canada would be with F-35s"
> 
> 
> Tactical cynicism:
> With the Op UNIFIED PROTECTOR - LIBYA medal precedent of requiring 30 consecutive or 60 cumulative days in location....even more fighter-types will have the opportunity to rotate through and get_ something _on their DEU to offset the absence of an Afghan medal.



_Surely_ no one in the Fighter community is thinking that.  If they wanted a GCS-SWA, they could have flown UAVs.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Canada fine tuning its black list


> Canada broke with the United States and did not impose sanctions on two key allies of Russian President Vladimir Putin because the pair had Canadian business interests, according to sources familiar with the matter.
> 
> The revelation puts into question the government’s tough line on Russia over the crisis in Ukraine. Prime Minister Stephen Harper recently compared Putin’s actions to those of Adolf Hitler in the run-up to World War Two.
> 
> (....)
> 
> unlike the United States, Canada has not moved against Sergei Chemezov, who heads state-owned industrial and defense conglomerate Rostec, and Igor Sechin, CEO of oil giant Rosneft . Both men, who are close to Putin, have business ties to Canada.
> 
> Rosneft owns some 30 percent of a Canadian oil field, while Rostec has an aircraft assembly joint venture lined up with Bombardier Inc. The venture is vital to the Canadian plane and train maker, as the fate of a roughly $3.4-billion aircraft sale deal is tied to it.
> 
> Asked about the decision not to go after either Sechin or Chemezov, a Canadian government source familiar with Ottawa’s sanctions strategy told Reuters: “Our goal is to sanction Russia, it is not to go out of our way to sanction or penalize Canadian companies.” ....


----------



## vonGarvin

Now for a bit of levity:


----------



## CougarKing

An update on the Tartars in the region:

Military.com



> *Putin tells Tartars the Future Lies with Russia*
> 
> Vladimir Putin has told Crimea's Tatars that they must accept that their future lies with Russia, on the eve of the 70th anniversary of their mass deportation from their ancestral homeland.
> 
> Putin's comments came as the UN warned that the Tatars have been the subject of harassment and persecution since the Black
> Sea peninsula was annexed from Ukraine in March.
> 
> Speaking after meeting Tatar representatives, Putin said: "Today we must all realise that the interests of the Crimean Tatars today are tied to Russia."
> 
> He said: "We are ready to work with all people" but added: "None of us can allow the Crimean Tatar people to become a bargaining chip in disputes … especially in disputes between Russia and Ukraine."
> 
> Meanwhile, Crimea's prime minister issued a decree forbidding all public demonstrations until 6 June, in an apparent attempt to prevent the annual rally on Sunday commemorating Stalin's deportation of the Tatars in 1944.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## Kirkhill

Poland continues its outreach programme:



> Prince Harry commemorates sacrifice of Polish soldiers who captured Monte Cassino
> Prince Harry joins Polish Second World War veterans as he commemorates the sacrifice of servicemen in capturing Monte Cassino in 1944
> 
> .....The Prince joined more than 50 Polish veterans of the battle, their prime minister Donald Tusk and many dignitaries for an open-air mass at the Polish Military Ceremony where those who paid the ultimate sacrifice are buried....
> 
> ....The Second World War battle is an important part of Polish history and seen as a crucial element of their struggle for self determination.
> The Polish prime minister told the congregation in a speech that ''it was a fight for our freedom and all the successive generations throughout the world''.
> 
> He added that Poland ''was not idle, we were not helpless, we were able to prove to the whole world there is no hill that cannot be attained''.



Daily Telegraph


Interestingly, in this Battle of Symbols, Harry was just despatched to Estonia 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/prince-harry/10837192/Prince-Harry-makes-sombre-visit-to-Estonia-as-Cressida-Bonas-parties.html

In propaganda terms Harry is worth a Brigade all by himself.


----------



## OldSolduer

A question here about the Tartars.


Are they not descended from the Mongol Hordes or linked to them in some way?


----------



## Old Sweat

Jim

Here is a link to a fairly obtuse Wikipedia article on the Tatars, alt Tartars:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tatars

There will be a test.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Jim Seggie said:
			
		

> A question here about the Tartars.
> 
> 
> Are they not descended from the Mongol Hordes or linked to them in some way?




Yes ... there _may_ have been, after the death of Genghis Khan, three _hordes_: the other two were the Blue Horde or left wing and the White Horde or the right wing. That _suggests_ some sort of manoeuvre organization with the Golden Horde in the centre but I'm not sure that's correct. These terms were applied to a 13th century phenomenon by later (16th century) foreign (Russian) sources. The Golden Horde was left in place around the Black and Caspian seas when Genghis Khan died and Batu Khan and his brothers, who led the great hordes, returned to Mongolia to elect a near great khan. (Gross oversimplification ~ it, the succession, was much more politically involved.) The Mongols settled in place and interbred with the locals to produce the modern _Turkic_ peoples of Western and Central Asia.

So, yes the Tartars are - partially, anyway - Mongols.

(It may be that the word _Tartar_ is like the word _Barbar_, from which we derive _barbarian_, a way of describing people whose language was incomprehensible: _"bar-bar"_ or _"tar-tar"_ being used to describe incomprehensible speech.)


----------



## Kirkhill

A thought about the Steppes.

We tend to think of the Steppes as being vacant with hordes rolling over them from the east every generation or so.  But perhaps we should consider them as "sparsely populated".  The difference is significant.

If the Mongols (Gokturks, Scythians, Kurgans) moved west of the Altai into empty lands then everything that was left after them was Mongol.

But if the lands were populated to any extent then another phenomenon is possible.  

Assuming that the resident population couldn't beat an invading force they had the option to join them.  If they joined them then they would adopt the battle flags of the invaders, grab their horses and head west with the rest of the mob for an enjoyable bit of rape and pillage.  Given that they were all nomads and hand no concerns about defending territory - all their property was mobile - then it was easy enough just to tag along.

Once the seasonal madness was over everybody stopped in place and went back to doing exactly what they had been doing before.  Genghis and his sons headed back home.  The blizzard of nomads he had driven westward was left in place and identified by the non-nomads as the Mongol Horde long after the Mongol driving force had died down.

I think it is possible to see the Mongol Horde as being a horde belonging to the Mongols for a while, just as it has belonged to Khazars, Alans, Huns, Turks and Scythians for a while, rather than as a horde of Mongols that relocated in their entirety.

Yes, Mongols left Mongolia and headed to Vienna, Constantinople and Baghdad.  But I don't believe that all of the Golden Horde were Mongols.

If you take a look at the rise and fall of the Khazars,  which predated the Khanates of the Hordes, you find tribes/clans that were suborned by the Khazars, rebelled against the Khazars, escaped the Khazars and set up their own territories - often to the chagrin of local residents.  The Magyars and the Bulgars immediately come to mind - now Hungarians and Bulgarians respectively.

The nomadic horse nations, like the Tatars, have to be seen, I believe, more as familial confederacies, or clans rather than through the lens of the sedentary territorial nations.

I don't believe it has ever been possible to impose order on that mob.  The best that anybody has ever been able to do, likely, is stampede them.  Once the storm passes, like contented cattle they go back to grazing.

That is a long winded way of saying that I don't think it much matters to the outsider what name you apply to the nomads of the steppes.  They are all one and the same.  

I also wouldn't put much store in their variety of Islam.  I don't think the Arabs (Wahabi Sunnis) and the Turks enjoy much love for each other.  Equally the Turks and the Persians (Shia) are sure of only one thing - they are not like each other.

Most of the problems in the Islamic world are associated with Wahabi Sunni Arabs of Saudi/Yemen vs the Shia of Persia (previously known as Elam to the Semites).


----------



## Kirkhill

Another angle on the Russian takeover from the New York Times:

Before on top
After on bottom
Russia's claim is in purple stripes and Ukraine's in orange.






Perhaps it is not enough for Vlad to have most of the oil and gas feeding Europe - Perhaps he really doesn't like competition.

Also, it seems that it is not enough for Ukraine to be friendly towards Russia.  He seems to be going out of his way to deny it any opportunity to succeed as a viable independent entity.





_- mod edit to fix code to make graphic visible -_


----------



## Edward Campbell

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> ...
> Also, it seems that it is not enough for Ukraine to be friendly towards Russia.  He seems to be going out of his way to deny it any opportunity to succeed as a viable independent entity.




This was one element against the expansion of NATO. Many thought that it was sufficient to gloat, quietly, at the breakup of the USSR; Russia, it was argued, should be allowed to retain some sort of tangible _sphere of influence_ over, say, Poland, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria along with Belarus and Ukraine. They could, it was suggested, join the EU but not NATO: the former could be seen as _embracing the East_ but there was (still is?) no way to disguise the latter as anything but an unfriendly act towards Russia.


----------



## Kirkhill

But is it possible to disconnect the military from the political from the economic?

Russia seems just as perturbed at the loss of economic clients to the EU as it does to the loss of military clients to NATO.

The map below is one that I am maintaining.

The green spaces are the Turko-Scythian nations (and I include the Mongols in that complex).  The blue spaces are the nations of the Rus of Kiev (apologies to all the other ancient entities), an admixture of Scandinavians and Eastern Slavs.

The white spaces are areas where Moscow has been forced to cede control since the era of perestroika.  Those areas are also historically heavily influenced by the Turko-Scythians. It includes Chechenya and all of the South Caucasus.

The white lines indicate major trade routes: Bourdeaux to Vienna by way of Vienne, France and the river Vienne; Gdansk to Odessa by way of the Vistula, Bug and the Dniepr and; the Iron Gates of Romania on the Danube to the Dzungarian Gate from the Steppes to Xinjiang by way of Khazar Itil and the Silk Road.

When I look at that map I see a Moscow isolated - off the beaten path.   It has limited trade potential.

The next thing I notice is that there is a distinct shape and pattern to the districts that surround Moscow.  Close in they are roughly the same size as the Moscow district proper they spiral outward from the center in a snail like pattern.  They appear like concentric lines of defence.  That pattern holds for a radius of 400 to 500 km from the centre.  

But the farther from the centre the more that pattern breaks down.  That region reflects the Grand Duchy of Muscovy up to the time that it escaped the Tatar Yoke and stopped paying tribute to the Golden Horde.  The era of Ivan the Terrible.  Since then Moscow has seen five centuries of expansion and conquest and has dominated its ancient dominators.

In 1989 Moscow's area of influence was at its greatest.  It's western border was 1500 km from the Kremlin.  With the fall of the Wall its borders have been pushed back to the borders of ancient Muscovy - 400 km from the Kremlin.   Putin's "Greatest Catastrophe".

It has lost the silk road.  It has lost all of the lands gained through the 19th century.  It has lost the lands gained by Ivan, Katherine and Peter.

And it happened 1000 years after the fall of a previous empire.  In 968 the principle Khazar trading city of Itil (at the mouth of Volga on the Caspian Sea) fell to Kievan Rus.  By 989 the Khazars were no longer receiving tribute from the Rus they were paying the Rus tribute.

Two hundred years later the Rus built the Kremlin at Moscow (1156).  That only lasted until the Mongols razed the place in 1237.  Moscow survived as a client of the Mongols until the 1400s.  In 1480 the Moscovites rebelled agains the Horde (now known as Tatars). In 1571 the Tatars, raiding out of the Crimea, razed Moscow again.

There is no permanency on the steppes.  And Moscow and Vlad seem, in my opinion, to be well aware of this.  In their view the modern mantra of "if you are not growing then you are dying" is the key to existence.  And the key to growth - well the exemplars are Sviatoslav I, Ivan the Terrible, Peter the Great, Catherine the Great, Lenin and Stalin.

From our stand point - do we just stand back and let Vlad be Ivan?

Or even his Basarab namesake "The Impaler"?


----------



## The Bread Guy

> Prime Minister Stephen Harper today announced that Senator Raynell Andreychuk and former Ontario Premier Mike Harris will lead the Canadian bilateral election observation mission to Ukraine. They will join the hundreds of Canadian election observers arriving in Ukraine.
> 
> The Canadian bilateral mission will be led by Senator Raynell Andreychuk. Having previously led Canada’s delegations for the 2010 and 2012 elections, Senator Andreychuk is a leader in the Ukrainian Canadian community, and brings significant experience in election observations and knowledge of the Ukrainian political system.
> 
> For these key elections, she will be joined by the Honourable Mike Harris, former Premier of Ontario. Having served as provincial Premier for seven years, Mr. Harris will bring insights and expertise from the democratic process and executive leadership.
> 
> Canada is sending a total of 500 observers to Ukraine to monitor the first and second rounds of the election: 338 of the observers will form part of Canada’s independent Ukraine 2014 Presidential Election Bilateral Observation Mission. This includes approximately 38 long-term observers and 300 short-term observers who will undertake electoral analysis, stakeholder engagement and support the Canadian election observer mission.
> 
> The remaining 162 observers will participate as part of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), and the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly observation missions ....


PM's Info-machine, 20 May 14


----------



## McG

Russia announces further military pull-back from the Ukraine.  Meanwhile, Ukrainians begin to show exhaustion with the beligerants in their midst.


> *Russian army pullout to create 'favourable' conditions for Ukraine election: Putin*
> Vladimir Isachenkov, The Associated Press
> CTV News
> 21 May 2014
> 
> MOSCOW -- Russian President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday he ordered troops to pull out from the regions near Ukraine to help create a positive environment ahead of the nation's presidential vote, but added the continued fighting will make it hard for the Kremlin to deal with the winner.
> 
> The pullout announced Monday was meant to create "favourable conditions for Ukraine's presidential vote and end speculation," Putin told reporters in Shanghai, China, where he attended a security summit.
> 
> In comments broadcast on Russian television, Putin referred to U.S. and NATO remarks that they aren't seeing any sign of the withdrawal, saying "those who aren't seeing it should look better." He said the pullout will be clearly visible in satellite images.
> 
> The numbers of troops and armour are quite large, and their pullout requires serious preparation. If the weather is good, they will see it all from space," Putin said.
> 
> The Russian Defence Ministry said that its military units in the regions near Ukraine have started moving to railway stations and airfields en route to their home bases, which they are expected to reach before June 1.
> 
> NATO, which estimates that Russia has 40,000 troops along the border with Ukraine, repeated Wednesday it could not yet see any signs of a Russian withdrawal.
> 
> Putin's pullout order and his statement welcoming the election, which he had previously urged to postpone, has suggested that he has no immediate intention to send the Russian army into Ukraine, where pro-Russian insurgents have seized government buildings and clashed with Ukrainian government forces in weeks of fighting that has left dozens dead.
> 
> Putin's moves reflected an apparent desire to ease tensions with the West over Ukraine and avoid further sanctions.
> 
> But the Russian leader also said Wednesday it will be "very difficult for us to develop relations with people who come to power amid a punitive operation in southeastern Ukraine."
> 
> Putin added that Russia has helped establish a dialogue between the central government in Kyiv and people in the southeast, but didn't give any details.
> 
> Many in eastern Ukraine resent the new authorities in Kyiv, which came to power after the toppling of Ukraine's pro-Russian president after months of protests. They see the new government as a group of nationalists bent on repressing Russian-speakers.
> 
> Russia supports a peace plan brokered by Switzerland and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which envisages a broad amnesty and the launch of a national dialogue that focuses on decentralization of government and upholding the status of the Russian language.
> 
> A third round table under the plan is being held Wednesday in the southern city of Mykolaiv.
> 
> Gen. Vladimir Shamanov, the chief of the Russian Airborne Forces, said in televised remarks that battalions from three airborne divisions would return to their home bases within 10 days, but didn't specify how many troops that included.
> 
> Russian television broadcast footage of columns of tanks and howitzers towed by heavy trucks. It wasn't immediately clear where the footage was taken.
> 
> The Ukrainian government and the West have seen the Russian military buildup in the areas near the border as a possible precursor for grabbing more land following Russia's annexation of Crimea in March. The United States and the European Union slapped sanctions on members of Putin's entourage after Russia took Crimea, and have threatened more crippling sanctions if Moscow tries to invade eastern Ukraine or derail its presidential vote set for this Sunday.
> 
> Putin on Wednesday sought to offset the Western pressure by visiting China, where he oversaw the signing of a $400 billion, 30-year deal to export Russian gas to China.
> 
> Meanwhile, clashes between the rebels and Ukrainian government forces continued on Wednesday in eastern Ukraine. The insurgents have faced a challenge from Ukraine's richest man, metals tycoon Rinat Akhmetov, who demanded an end to the mutiny which he said was destroying eastern Ukraine and called on workers to hold protests. They have also faced angry local residents, increasingly exasperated over being caught in cross fire that have destroyed their housing and endangered their lives.


http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/russian-army-pullout-to-create-favourable-conditions-for-ukraine-election-putin-1.1830897


----------



## The Bread Guy

Interesting piece on why the Ukrainian military has to fundraise to get food, medical supplies and some equipment to the troops - highlights mine.


> Here’s a contrast that sums up the David and Goliath aspect of the Ukraine crisis. Picture the sleek, white-hulled vessel Vladivostok, one of two Mistral class warships France is selling to Russia, and compare the bedraggled tents some Ukrainian soldiers sleep in with donations of food jumbled outside and rain-soaked blankets drying over a brushwood fire.
> 
> The Russian behemoth outmatches its smaller and weaker neighbor, intrinsically. But the gap did not have to be so stark. Nor did the task of confronting irregular separatist militias have to be so hard. At fault is what drove the Maidan protesters to the streets in the first place: corruption. Ukraine is a case study in one of the ways corruption threatens international security: it guts armies. It makes them useless for defending their borders and as allies. United States officials in their rush to aid the Ukrainian military should resist the temptation to turn a blind eye to lingering venality. Ukraine’s future depends on some tough love.
> 
> “A modern country cannot exist without a modern army,” Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Petro Mehed said at a press conference last month announcing a major military overhaul. “In recent years, [the Ukrainian] army has been systematically destroyed and disarmed, and its best personnel dismissed.”
> 
> _In a 2012 analysis  Leonid Polyakov, another senior defense official, detailed the corrupt workings with remarkable candor. Chronic underfunding “enhanced the role of the human factor” in choosing among operational priorities. Ostensibly outdated equipment was sold “at unreasonably understated prices” in return for kickbacks. Officers even auctioned off defense ministry land. Gradually, Kyiv began requiring the military to cover more of its own costs, forcing senior officers into business, “which is…inconsistent with the armed forces’ mission,” and opened multiple avenues for corruption. Commanders took to “using military equipment, infrastructure, and…personnel [to] build private houses, [or] make repairs in their apartments.” Procurement fraud was rife, as were bribes to get into and through military academies, and for desirable assignments_ ....



Edited to add attached more-detailed 2012 Polyakov analysis on corruption in the UKR military


----------



## Kirkhill

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Interesting piece on why the Ukrainian military has to fundraise to get food, medical supplies and some equipment to the troops - highlights mine.
> Edited to add attached more-detailed 2012 Polyakov analysis on corruption in the UKR military



The gutting of Ukraine couldn't have been done better if it had been planned in Moscow................


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> The gutting of Ukraine couldn't have been done better if it had been planned in Moscow................


Interesting how "past management" was happy to gut the (then-conscript) military, but also keen on beefing up the police/Berkut folks.  Who do YOU trust?


----------



## Kirkhill

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Interesting how "past management" was happy to gut the (then-conscript) military, but also keen on beefing up the police/Berkut folks.  Who do YOU trust?



Damfino... But I don't think we can afford to leave them to their own devices.


----------



## The Bread Guy

A bit more on why Ukraine's military is the way it is ....


> Russian President Vladimir Putin is celebrating Victory Day in Simferopol today, admiring the Crimean peninsula that he so winningly stole from Ukraine this spring. Not too far away, in the city of Mariupol, Ukrainian police began the holiday with a deadly gun battle with separatists. Over 100 people have died in Ukraine since May 2, and despite reports that Ukraine's "anti-terrorist operation" was successfully driving out separatists in the east, it does not look like the fighting will stop anytime soon. Victory Day celebrations in Ukraine must carry an ironic tone today, as the conflict has revealed the extent to which its armed forces were systemically mismanaged since the country declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, leaving Ukraine almost entirely helpless to stave off the Russian invasion. Here are a few reasons why:
> 
> Ukraine inherited the Soviet military machine when it gained independence.
> 
> (....)
> 
> The Russians infiltrated all branches of the Ukrainian armed forces, experts agree.
> 
> (....)
> 
> Thanks to a dire lack of funding, the Ukrainian armed forces have no training in this type of conflict.
> 
> (....)
> 
> Internal Ukrainian politics are hampering the military’s ability to act.
> 
> (....)


----------



## The Bread Guy

So far, if you believe exit polls, a 48-year-old pro-Western billionaire/oligarch/whatever appears to be the next Ukrainian president -- more about him here (Wikipedia), here (BBC) and here (Forbes profile as #1333 of the world's top billionaires).


----------



## Kirkhill

Can anybody make out the patch on the Self-Defence soldier's sleeve?

Some other interesting photos in this series from Donetsk in the Telegraph


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> Can anybody make out the patch on the Self-Defence soldier's sleeve?
> 
> Some other interesting photos in this series from Donetsk in the Telegraph


Not quite like the Donbass People's Mo' patch ....




.... but tapping into the colours of the People's Republic of Donetsk flag:




... so might be a locally-produced variation.


----------



## George Wallace

That flash has the Russian Federation flag on it.


----------



## Kirkhill

George Wallace said:
			
		

> That flash has the Russian Federation flag on it.



And he and his buddies at the airport seem particularly well-dressed and equipped "militiamen".


----------



## Jungle

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Not quite like the Donbass People's Mo' patch ....



More like the _Dumbass_ militia...



			
				milnews.ca said:
			
		

> .... but tapping into the colours of the People's Republic of Donetsk flag



That reminds me of a Ronald Reagan quote, that went something like:

"_Someone told me the difference between a democracy and a people's democracy; it's the same as the difference between a jacket and a straight jacket_"


----------



## MilEME09

From the news i've been hearing those at the airport had a pretty bad day. That said with the election of the new president it looks like the pressure on the insurgents has been kicked up, I don't recall hearing about airstrikes before now


----------



## Journeyman

Based only on the first few letters visible, I'd say the first word is "Russian" and the third word is "Army" -- the one in the middle _MAY_ be "Liberation" (Организацией) but I'm betting neither cash nor Jack Daniels on it.



Taking Russian in university happened several brain-cells ago....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Jungle said:
			
		

> More like the _Dumbass_ militia...
> 
> That reminds me of a Ronald Reagan quote, that went something like:
> 
> "_Someone told me the difference between a democracy and a people's democracy; it's the same as the difference between a jacket and a straight jacket_"


Reminds me of the line that most "people's democratic republics" may be republics, but don't give a rat's a** about the people or democracy.





			
				Kirkhill said:
			
		

> And he and his buddies at the airport seem particularly well-dressed and equipped "militiamen".


Hey, hey, hey, take it easy, there - Russian media call these poor guys "unarmed protesters".


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> From the news i've been hearing those at the airport had a pretty bad day. That said with the election of the new president it looks like the pressure on the insurgents has been kicked up, I don't recall hearing about airstrikes before now



I think the new president went to the same School of Negotiation as Putin.  Apparently they used to be buddies/acquaintances.

The new guy's solution may look like Grozny.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Journeyman said:
			
		

> Based only on the first few letters visible, I'd say the first word is "Russian" and the third word is "Army" -- the one in the middle _MAY_ be "Liberation" (Организацией) but I'm betting neither cash nor Jack Daniels on it.
> 
> Taking Russian in university happened several brain-cells ago....


Good eyes, bud.

A Twittterite says it _might_ also be Русская православна армія for "Russian Orthodox Army", a federalist/separatist/pro-Russian group accused of kidnapping eastern UKR folks recently.


----------



## Journeyman

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> A Twittterite says it _might_ also be Русская православна армія for "Russian Orthodox Army"


I'd definitely go for that; once you know the word you can easily make out "Pravos...." and when added to the cross on the badge's Russian flag, it all comes together. 

_Collectively_.....we have a working brain.   ;D





			
				Kirkhill said:
			
		

>



.....and that's the "Nothing to Declare" line -- just imagine if you were bringing any souvenirs or duty free in!


----------



## George Wallace

So.....There we go:

 Русская православна армія      https://vk.com/pravoslavnuydonbass



> Russian Orthodox Army
> 
> "Warriors of the Faith" We are brothers of Great Russia! We will unite the entire South-East!
> 
> Handling the founder of the Russian Orthodox Army Dmitry Boytsova. Brothers and sisters, in this hour I wish you strength and courage in the fight against our common enemy. For almost two months we hold in an unequal battle with the superior forces of Nazi Guard of Ukraine and in many ways it is already winning. First of all, thanks to you, those who began the defense of their homeland and family and in spite of everything continues to resist the Nazis and Western mercenaries seeking to destroy our common Fatherland and enslave the population of the South-East. You - heroes of our time! You - the force that still stops brown plague, without letting it destroy something that is so dear to the heart. War Russian Orthodox Army, you deserve to wear the proud name of Defenders of the Motherland, and God give you strength as zealously fight with evil spirits, and more! Comrade, believe: she rises, Captivating Star of Happiness, Russia will rise from sleep, and on the ruins of autocracy write our names!


----------



## Kirkhill

Neat stuff George .... and the rest of the Hive. 

That mob sounds as if they would elect Rasputin to sainthood.


----------



## Kirkhill

Curious little article from the Moscow Times 1999





> Cherkessia Split Illegal
> By UnknownSep. 02 1999 00:00
> 
> 
> 
> MOSCOW -- Justice Minister Yury Chaika on Wednesday condemned Cherkess ethnic separatists in Karachayevo-Cherkessia, a semi-autonomous region of the North Caucasus, saying attempts to split the region were illegal, Itar-Tass reported.
> 
> 
> *The Cherkess on Tuesday threatened to break off and form their own autonomous region after their candidate was officially pronounced to have lost a local presidential pol*l. (emphasis added)
> 
> 
> The Cherkess have been demonstrating for six days against a court ruling that proclaimed Vladimir Semyonov, representing the dominant Karachai ethnic group, victor in a poll marred by numerous irregularities.
> 
> 
> There is no indication, however, that the Cherkess want to break free of federal rule.









The map comes from the blog Springtime of Nations

And Wiki has an interesting summary of the provenance of the South East that  the Russian Orthodox Army wishes to hold: The Taman Peninsula



> The Maeotae and Sindi settled in the area from ancient times. In the classical period it became part of the Bosporan kingdom; its inhabitants included Sarmatians, Greeks, Anatolian settlers from Pontus, and Jews. In the 4th century CE the area fell to the Huns; it was later the capital of Great Bulgaria and fell to the Khazars in the mid-7th century. Following the breakup of the Khazar Khaganate in c. 969, the peninsula formed part of a Khazar Jewish successor state under a ruler named David. By the late 980s it came largely into the possession of the Kievan Rus and of the Russian Principality of Tmutarakan before falling to the Kipchaks c. 1100. The Mongols seized the area in 1239 and it became a possession of Genoa, along with Gazaria in Crimea, in 1419.
> 
> 
> For most of the 15th century the Guizolfi (Ghisolfi) family, founded by the Genoese Jew Simeone de Guizolfi, ruled the peninsula on behalf of Gazaria. The rulership of the region by Jewish consuls, commissioners or princes has sparked much debate over the extent to which Khazar Judaism survived in southern Russia during this period. The Khanate of Crimea seized the Taman Peninsula in 1483, and it fell to the Ottoman Empire in 1783. In 1791, during the Second Russo-Turkish War, it passed into the control of the Russian Empire. Russia ceded it back to the Ottomans in 1792. It finally passed to Russia in 1828.



With this little nugget about Sochi



> Sochi is considered by many Circassians as their traditional capital city.[8] According to Circassians, the 2014 Winter Olympic village is built in an area of mass graves of Circassians after their defeat by the Russians in 1864.[9]



And Circassia -



> Circassia’s historical great range extended from the Taman Peninsula in the west, to the town of Mozdok in today’s North Ossetia–Alania in the east. Historically, Circassia covered the southern half of today’s Krasnodar Krai, the Republic of Adygea, Karachay-Cherkessia, Kabardino-Balkaria, and parts of North Ossetia–Alania and Stavropol Krai, bounded by the Kuban River on the north which separated it from the Russian Empire.



I guess the point that I am bumping up against here is that there is no principle at play in Putin's world - at least none beyond "Россия".

Moscow has less claim to Ukraine and the Caucasus than Britain had to India.  They may have interests.  They don't have rights.


----------



## The Bread Guy

George Wallace said:
			
		

> So.....There we go:
> 
> Русская православна армія      https://vk.com/pravoslavnuydonbass


Thanks, George & Journeyman, for the first-rate hive adds.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some tidbits:

Federalist/separatist/pro-Russian forces shoot down UKR chopper, reportedly killing UKR general among 14 reported dead - more on this here
Some OSCE observers are "guests" of federalists/separatists/pro-Russian forces in E UKR
Ukraine's Foreign Ministry says, "thanks, but no thanks" to Russian "humanitarian aid" (UKR MFA site, in Ukrainian)


----------



## The Bread Guy

As pro-Russian "Vostock Battalion" forces kick pro-Russian "People's Republic of Donetsk" forces out of some government buildings in Donestk, Ukrainian prosecutors are preparing to look into dismissed officers/officials accused of "abuses in the (military) supply chain" (in Ukrainian) - all while UKR troops remain in contact.

Curiouser and curiouser .....


----------



## Kirkhill

Further to Poroshenko's negotiating style:

From the Telegraph three days ago



> Ukrainian government warplanes carried out airstrikes against pro-Russian rebels who seized Donetsk international airport on Monday as both sides mounted an aggressive show of force following the election of a new president.
> 
> Black smoke was seen billowing from the area of the airport after about two hours of repeated explosions and gunfire, while jets roared overhead. A security official also said that paratroops had landed in one of the fiercest clashes since violence broke out in the east two months ago.
> 
> Saying that a deadline had passed at 1 p.m. (1000 GMT) for separatist militants to lay down their arms, a spokesman for the Ukrainian joint forces security operation in the region said two Sukhoi Su-25 jets had carried out strafing runs, firing warning shots around Sergei Prokofiev International Airport.
> 
> "In reply, the guerrillas opened fire at random from all types of weapon," he said, before a MiG-29 jet also took part.
> A second spokesman, Vladislav Seleznyov, said: "A MiG-29 carried out an airstrike on the area where the terrorists were concentrated."
> 
> The first spokesman said the militants had then spread out across the territory of the airport, whose state-of-the-art main terminal was built only for the 2012 European soccer championships held in Ukraine. "Right now at the airport, paratroops have landed and are cleaning up the area."
> 
> ......
> 
> In the morning, Reuters journalists saw three trucks carrying armed militants heading towards the airport and also spotted at least four armed men positioned on the roof. Representatives of the Donetsk People's Republic said they had taken over the airport and were attempting to clear it of government forces stationed there.



Truck heading to the Airport






Same truck upon arrival?











To summarize.

Invite rebels to surrender
Herd rebels into a concentration with SU-25 Frogfoots and Mi-24 Hinds
Drop bomb from Mig-29 on concentration
Deliver air assault troops to mop up survivors

When locals attempt to reinforce eliminate reinforcements.

Ria Novosti and Bulgarian news reported that the Russians claim the dead had been shot while being delivered by truck to a hospital - claiming war crime.

Poroshenko did say he didn't expect the violence to last long.

Who do I trust? Damfino.


----------



## Kirkhill

Interesting how language suffers in the translation.  Article

The title says that a Ukrainian Army convoy was shelled.....usual interpretation "hit by an artillery concentration".

The article says that the last truck in the convoy had its windows blown out but was still driveable after it was hit by something smaller than a grenade launcher - probably "just a gun".  The truck "was shelled" - it was turned into a shell?



> Ukrainian military convoy was shelled in Kharkiv
> Lightning 8 hours ago
> Gunmen of the so-called “Donetsk People’s Republic” have shelled a convoy of the Ukrainian Army.
> 
> Reports journalist Arkady Babchenko
> 
> “Just now militants of the DPR shelled a convoy of the Ukrainian Army. It happened 20 minutes before we arrived. They fired on the last “Kamaz”. Some say that it was a grenade launcher, but I saw this “Kamaz” – it is shelled, no windows, but it was still driving and there was no fire. So, I think it was just a gun.
> 
> The ambush was organized in Kharkiv region, not far from Izum.
> 
> According to some information – one killed and three wounded, some others say that one killed and one wounded. But as there were few ambulances, I think there are three wounded. I do not know, there is no official information yet.
> 
> A group went into the woods, working there. I cannot hear a battle, so far only individual shots.
> 
> The road is completely blocked, no one allowed through or near. When anyone tries to come near, he is put with the face on the ground.
> 
> The victim is lying on the pavement. An investigation group is working.
> 
> I wrote a month ago that according to tactic of a guerrilla war one must expect attacks on convoys.”
> 
> This record is also available in: Russian, Ukrainian




I'm reminded how a radio report out of Yugoslavia described "hundreds, uh, thousands" of casualties.  That became "hundreds of thousands of casualties"  I remember hearing both the original radio report (on As It Happens) and then seeing the headlines the next day.


----------



## The Bread Guy

> At around 19:00 yesterday the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) to Ukraine lost contact with some members of its Luhansk-based team.
> 
> The team was stopped in the town of Severodonetsk (100km north of Luhansk) by armed men.
> 
> The team consists of four international SMM members, as well as one Ukrainian language assistant travelling in two vehicles.
> 
> The detained team is in addition to one currently missing in the East that was last heard from on the evening of May 26. That group consists of four internationals ....


OSCE news release, 30 May 14


----------



## vonGarvin

Where's the International outcry?

Small arms used in Kyiv results in howls of outrage in the West, but this gets nothing?









The whole place is a shit-show.


----------



## Kirkhill

The "Vostok Battalion" of Volunteers  - Mac-Pap for Russians.

According to this article in Today Online - approximately 1000 in strength in Donetsk.  Concentrated in a Ukrainian army base.  Spreading through Donetsk to commit Poroshenko to an urban battle (Stalingrad, Grozny, Fallujah).

Would Londonderry or Belfast be an acceptable result?  A low grade, long running constabulary action rather than an all out assault?

I have to say that concentrating in an army base doesn't seem to me to be their best course of action  at this time.  Not after the airport.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Russia's trying to get a U.N. resolution pressing UKR for a ceasefire and "humanitarian corridors" into Eastern Ukraine.


> Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has announced Moscow will submit a draft resolution to the United Nations Security Council.
> 
> Lavrov used a joint press conference with the Foreign Minister of Mauritania, who was on a visit to Russia to reveal the details of the resolution which he hoped would result in a sustainable ceasefire in Ukraine.
> 
> “The resolution will include demands for an immediate end to violence and a start of actual negotiations with the aim of establishing a stable and reliable ceasefire.
> 
> ‘Also, this draft resolution will include a demand for the creation, without delay, of humanitarian corridors through which peaceful civilians can leave combat zones if they wish,” Sergei Lavrov told reporters ....


In spite of a reportedly coolish reception so far, does anyone else see where this might be going?  Especially if a ceasefire can't be agreed to?


----------



## Old Sweat

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Russia's trying to get a U.N. resolution pressing UKR for a ceasefire and "humanitarian corridors" into Eastern Ukraine.In spite of a reportedly coolish reception so far, does anyone else see where this might be going?  Especially if a ceasefire can't be agreed to?



Wherever it is going depends upon the new Ukraine government being able to keep its head. I suggest there is a possibility if the Russian resolution is vetoed and the violence towards pro-Russian factions continues, at the least Russian forces will move back into the border regions, if they ever really left. The response of the West will not be united and perhaps the best we can hope for in the next step is a Russian clamp down on exports to Ukraine.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Old Sweat said:
			
		

> Wherever it is going depends upon the new Ukraine government being able to keep its head. I suggest there is a possibility if the Russian resolution is vetoed and the violence towards pro-Russian factions continues, at the least Russian forces will move back into the border regions, if they ever really left. The response of the West will not be united and perhaps the best we can hope for in the next step is a Russian clamp down on exports to Ukraine.


Some are going as far as saying this could set the Russians up for being "peacekeepers" - "we're here to protect the Russian folk since the Ukrainians won't stop their offensive."

Interesting times ....


----------



## Old Sweat

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Some are going as far as saying this could set the Russians up for being "peacekeepers" - "we're here to protect the Russian folk since the Ukrainians won't stop their offensive."
> 
> Interesting times ....



That has occurred to me, and I almost posted "Where is Lester Pearson when we really need him?" I suspect the CPC aren't as gooey about getting a Nobel Peace Prize as the Grits were a while back.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Old Sweat said:
			
		

> That has occurred to me, and I almost posted "Where is Lester Pearson when we really need him?" I suspect the CPC aren't as gooey about getting a Nobel Peace Prize as the Grits were a while back.


Have to agree ....


----------



## a_majoor

Old Sweat said:
			
		

> Wherever it is going depends upon the new Ukraine government being able to keep its head. I suggest there is a possibility if the Russian resolution is vetoed and the violence towards pro-Russian factions continues, at the least Russian forces will move back into the border regions, if they ever really left. The response of the West will not be united and perhaps the best we can hope for in the next step is a Russian clamp down on exports to Ukraine.



It seems to me (from a far remove from much up to date newscasting) that the Russians are using their "big" assets like gas exports and conventional military power as a red cape to distract our attentions and paralize the decision makers from taking action, while "nibbling" Ukraine bit by bit from within. Taking a police station here, killing a mayor there, occupying a piece of infrastructure, taking over a television station or internet node....

All these small actions individually don't cal for a massive response by Ukraine or the West (as mentioned upthread, this would be more like the "Troubles" in Northern Ireland or perhaps dealing with the EKOA in Cyprus), but collectively they disrupt the civil society of Ukraine, sap the attention of the decision makeers and gradually pull parts of Ukraine (my bet is the end result is everything east of the Dneiper River) into the Russian orbit as some sort of puppet state. 

Western Ukraine, riven by corruption and exhausted materially and socially by a decade long conflict will fall into the orbit of Poland (which is historically where it "belongs", even to the point of the Poles and Russians fighting a war over the Ukraine in the 1920's) as an exhausted rump state, which will be a challenge for the Poles and the EU for a long time to come.

There are no "happy" outcomes here, and I don't think *we* in Canada or the West have the option of remaining unengaged.


----------



## vonGarvin

Thucydides said:
			
		

> It seems to me (from a far remove from much up to date newscasting) that the Russians are using their "big" assets like gas exports and conventional military power as a red cape to distract our attentions and paralize the decision makers from taking action, while "nibbling" Ukraine bit by bit from within. Taking a police station here, killing a mayor there, occupying a piece of infrastructure, taking over a television station or internet node....
> 
> All these small actions individually don't cal for a massive response by Ukraine or the West (as mentioned upthread, this would be more like the "Troubles" in Northern Ireland or perhaps dealing with the EKOA in Cyprus), but collectively they disrupt the civil society of Ukraine, sap the attention of the decision makeers and gradually pull parts of Ukraine (my bet is the end result is everything east of the Dneiper River) into the Russian orbit as some sort of puppet state.
> 
> Western Ukraine, riven by corruption and exhausted materially and socially by a decade long conflict will fall into the orbit of Poland (which is historically where it "belongs", even to the point of the Poles and Russians fighting a war over the Ukraine in the 1920's) as an exhausted rump state, which will be a challenge for the Poles and the EU for a long time to come.
> 
> There are no "happy" outcomes here, and I don't think *we* in Canada or the West have the option of remaining unengaged.


Bullshit.  There's a coup in Kyiv, and you call what is happening in the east of Ukraine as disruptive to civil society of Ukraine?  Those in the west didn't like the trade deal with Russia.  With that, they protested, it morphed into fighting for freedom, then a very West Friendly "government" takes over from a legitimately elected government (Yanukovich).  No wonder that those in the east felt threatened.  I mean, if a bunch of hooligans can oust someone from power, then be called democratic by The West, it only followed that the Russian minorities in the east and south felt that they could be next.  They lost their voice, and now Ukraine has the luxury of conducting air strikes against built up areas, and nary a peep from The Moral West.

We have no fucking business there.  It's a fight between Ukraine and Russia, and the end result will be a natural division of borders along ethnic lines, whether we, the Russians or the Ukrainians like it or not.


----------



## Kirkhill

Technoviking said:
			
		

> We have no ******* business there.  It's a fight between Ukraine and Russia, and the end result will be a natural division of borders along ethnic lines, whether we, the Russians or the Ukrainians like it or not.



Is there any situation in which the blanks could be filled? 

If the answer is no then is there any reason for Canada to continue to fund an expeditionary capability?

I'm not trying to be unduly provocative.  I'm just curious as to where this line of reasoning might end.  

We can agree, perhaps, that this is a particular circumstance and it might not be appropriate to choose up sides.  (Not my own personal perspective but a valid one).  But are we at a point where there are no circumstances justifying intervention by Canadian forces?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Technoviking said:
			
		

> Bullshit.  There's a coup in Kyiv, and you call what is happening in the east of Ukraine as disruptive to civil society of Ukraine?  Those in the west didn't like the trade deal with Russia.  With that, they protested, it morphed into fighting for freedom, then a very West Friendly "government" takes over from a legitimately elected government (Yanukovich).  No wonder that those in the east felt threatened.


There's now a new legitimately elected government (even one Putin is willing to work with), so that shouldn't be an issue.  And as for the east not voting, their choice - consider those ballots "declined with extreme prejudice"  

This can play both ways ....


			
				Technoviking said:
			
		

> if a bunch of hooligans can oust someone from power, then be called democratic protesters by The West Russia, it only followed that the Russian Ukrainian minorities in the east and south felt that they could be next.



All that said ....


			
				Technoviking said:
			
		

> We have no fucking business there.  It's a fight between Ukraine and Russia, and the end result will be a natural division of borders along ethnic lines, whether we, the Russians or the Ukrainians like it or not.





			
				Kirkhill said:
			
		

> But are we at a point where there are no circumstances justifying intervention by Canadian forces?


Gotta side with TV on this one for now - Ukraine's not on this list, so they not guaranteed Article 5 protection.  NATO's SG can say all he wants about helping "allies," but it's up to individual nations to respond.


----------



## Kirkhill

I accept that we are under no obligation to act.


----------



## vonGarvin

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> I accept that we are under no obligation to act.


Exactly.  And we are two-faced when we call one set of protests "rising up against tyranny" and the other "a proxy war fed by Russian lies".  I mean, who are we, the Third Reich?   :-\


----------



## The Bread Guy

Back to a more Canadian angle, via the Associated Press, shared here in accordance with the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the _Copyright Act_ ....


> Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper says his country is sending more soldiers than initially planned to a military exercise in Eastern Europe in response to Russia's recent actions in Ukraine.
> 
> Harper's announcement in Warsaw on Wednesday comes a day after President Barack Obama pledged to boost U.S. military deployments and exercises throughout Europe.
> 
> Harper's office said Canada plans to send a contingent of about 75 soldiers to Latvia this month to participate in Saber Strike 2014, a U.S.-led exercise. Those are in addition to 45 Canadians who were to take part in the exercise in Poland.
> 
> The Canadians are joining some 2,000 other troops from nine countries for the exercises. It takes place June 9-21 in Poland, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania.


More on Saber Strike 2014 here.


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Back to a more Canadian angle, via the Associated Press, shared here in accordance with the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the _Copyright Act_ ....More on Saber Strike 2014 here.


And this from the Info-machine ....


> *Participation of Canadian Armed Forces in allied security cooperation exercise in Eastern Europe  *
> On June 4, 2014, Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced that members of the Canadian Armed Forces will deploy to Latvia to participate in Exercise SABER STRIKE 2014, a long-standing, multilateral, multifaceted, U.S. Army Europe-led security cooperation exercise.
> 
> A Canadian Armed Forces contingent of approximately 75 soldiers – from 3rd Battalion, Princess Patricia’s Canadian Light Infantry based in Edmonton, Alberta – will join more than 2,000 personnel, including approximately 45 Canadian soldiers already deployed, from nine other countries participating in this annual exercise which is being held this year in Latvia, Estonia, Poland and Lithuania from June 9 to 21. The Canadian contingent will be attached to the United States Army’s 1st Battalion, 503rd Infantry Regiment.
> 
> Exercise SABER STRIKE 2014 provides commanders and their staff with practical experience in organizing, controlling and supporting coalition operations with a view to enhancing interoperability between military partners. The exercise uses a brigade-level command post and computer assisted exercises, as well as company-level field and situational training exercises. It also features the integration of U.S. close-air support with partner nation ground forces and provides a demonstration of U.S. Expeditionary Medical Support capability.
> 
> The Exercise will allow Canada, the United States and other participating nations to demonstrate the unique roles they can take on when contributing to international operations to promote regional and global stability.
> 
> Participating nations include the three Baltic States: Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, as well as Canada, Finland, the United Kingdom, Norway, Denmark, Poland, and the United States.
> 
> Canadian Armed Forces personnel also participated in Exercise SABER STRIKE 2012 in Estonia with a dismounted infantry platoon and a modest support element.


----------



## Kirkhill

Technoviking said:
			
		

> Exactly.  And we are two-faced when we call one set of protests "rising up against tyranny" and the other "a proxy war fed by Russian lies".  I mean, who are we, the Third Reich?   :-\



I don't think we are the Third Reich just because we choose up sides.  We are no more the Third Reich than the BBC was equivalent to Goebel's propaganda machine.

Nor do I think we are expansionist just because we allow people to join our clubs.  I believe that the difference between Comecon and the Warsaw Pact, in contrast to the EU and NATO, is that Poland was forced to become a member of the eastern clubs and voluntariy applied to become a member of the western clubs.  The alternative to not accepting them and the other ex-easterners into the western clubs would have been to have left a group of unsupported, resentful, motivated individuals in a no-man's land between east and west.

I see this situation in Eastern Europe as a classic Cabinet intervention case where the government is empowered to act within the limits of its capabilities.  We may not like the intervention.  We may not agree with the government's interpretation of what are our critical interests and obligations.  But we did give them the authority, through the ballot box, to act.  And we get to chuck them out if we don't like their course of action.


----------



## Kirkhill

Coincidence, I'm sure.



> *Mr Borodai makes no secret of being a Muscovite*. How he suddenly emerged at the helm of a pro-Russian rebellion in Ukraine is unclear. Improbable though it may sound, he has passed from being a consultant to a Russian investment fund to* “prime minister” of a “People’s Republic”.*
> 
> But the known facts of his biography make this transformation less mysterious. Mr Borodai was *one of a circle of ardent Russian nationalists who worked for the far-right “Zavtra” newspaper* in the 1990s. He* took part in the rebellion in Moldova which carved out the enclave of Transdniestria* for the country’s Russian minority.
> 
> Earlier this year, he was* in Crimea as an adviser to Sergei Aksyonov*, the separatist prime minister who oversaw the territory’s annexation by Russia. So Mr Borodai has long experience of carving out secure enclaves for Russians who found themselves becalmed in former Soviet republics after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
> 
> By his account, he* came to Ukraine at the invitation of Igor Strelkov*, another Russian citizen now believed to be commanding rebel forces in the town of Slavyansk, 70 miles north of Donetsk. Mr Strelkov appears on a European Union sanctions list, where he is described as being *on the “staff” of Russia’s military intelligence service, the GRU.*
> 
> Some have interpreted Mr Borodai’s arrival as a further sign of Russia strengthening its control over the Donetsk rebellion. But the “prime minister” says that he is nothing more than a volunteer, no different from many other volunteers who have come from Russia and elsewhere to fight Ukraine’s “neo-fascist” regime.



Daily Telegraph


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> Coincidence, I'm sure.


Hey, everybody's gotta be somewhere, Comrade  ;D

Meanwhile, this pretty concise summary from a NY Times reporter behind the federalist/separatist/pro-Russian lines ....


> Surface-to-air missiles pilfered from army bases. Defectors from Ukraine’s elite special forces. Russian fighters who slipped across a porous border.  These are some of the biggest problems facing Ukraine’s military in the rebellious east ….


.... and those borders appear to be getting even more porous.

Meanwhile, operators are still standing by for your donations to the Ukrainian military - more than CDN $11.2 million raised so far!


----------



## Kirkhill

Cossacks heading for home?



> Fighting continued in and around the stronghold of Kremlin-backed insurgents in Slovyansk and neighbouring Kramatorsk on 8 June, a day after Petro Poroshenko vowed in his presidential inaugural address to seek out and destroy separatists 'with blood on their hands.' Poroshenko in his speech said Ukraine would endeavour to open a corridor for Russian fighters to Russia's neighbouring Rostov province if they laid down their weapons and made an orderly retreat. In Luhansk province, meanwhile, *Armed Don Cossacks were preparing to return to their native Russia*.



If they do, what is likely to be their reception?

Do the Russians have form on this?

Repatriations

Hard to say.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> Cossacks heading for home?
> 
> If they do, what is likely to be their reception?
> 
> Do the Russians have form on this?
> 
> Repatriations
> 
> Hard to say.


Well, if one believes media reports (here, in Russian and here), the _dead_ ones heading back to Russia are being given a .... minimalist reception.  It might also depend whether they've won or lost.

A Canadian angle to share:  this BBC documentary podcast (~30 minute mp3) about the Ukrainian National Guard includes some audio from a guy saying he's a Canadian with military experience (there apparently training the National Guard) and saying other Canadians are there, too.

Meanwhile, not much of a honeymoon for the new Ukrainian president:  border guards are pissed at being stood up by Ukrainian army units after calling for help (screen capture of web page, in Ukrainian), and a regional military boss is underwhelmed with how much body armour the lads got on their way east (Ukrainian media in Russian).


----------



## Kirkhill

Russia Opens a Eurasian Pandora's Box

If Kazakhstan can deny Putin a Eurasian parliament, Kyrgyzstan can extort cash from Putin for their membership and Belarus's Lukashenko is expressing opposition to the Crimean takeover (no matter how timidly)...... How strong is Putin's position?


----------



## Edward Campbell

In an article in the _Ottawa Citizen_, _Postmedia's_ Matthew Fisher tells Canadians to "...  stop the charade in the West that there is no firm proof that Russia is involved in eastern Ukraine. Of course it is, up to its eyeballs." Russia/Putin, he says, "... has been playing one of the oldest games in international brinkmanship: He created dangerous problems in Ukraine and then generously offered to play peacemaker."

"There is," Matthew Fisher writes, "a window right now for diplomacy," but he adds, despite that small window of opportunity, "about a dozen towns and cities in eastern Ukraine are already on fire. What happens next might be uglier than anything that has happened so far."

Ukraine is not innocent in all this nor has it, especially its political leadership, been very smart, but despite Ukraine's many, manifest social, political and economic blunders it is a victim, just one victim, of Russian aggression. We need to be clear on that: Russia is not anyone's friend. Russia lies, cheats and steals at the highest political, economic and military levels. It, Russia/Putin, cannot be trusted with anything. It is an enemy ... we didn't go looking for another enemy, we, the US led West, tried to make Russia a friend, or, at least, a civil competitor. Russia refused. It is time we, the US led West, stopped believing in fairy tales and it is time we look at Russia for what it is: a baleful, untrustworthy, aggressive foe.


----------



## YZT580

Sorry E.R.  but we are not the U.S. led west.  The U.S. has abdicated from the leadership role and no one has stepped forward to replace them.  The west hasn't been so weak and indecisive since 1938.  For decades the EU has let the states cover the costs and take the flak that comes with world leadership.  Well guess what: 6 years ago the U.S. elected an unleader and now the EU are going to have to make decisions and pay the costs all by themselves and I don't think they are up to it.  The closest thing that the EU has to a leader is Poland and we are not far enough removed from the era of polish jokes to make them a viable option.  Harper talks a good war but he doesn't have either the people or the infrastructure to back it up.


----------



## CougarKing

Fodder for Ukrainian Hind helos or newer MBTs?

Defensetech.org



> *Video: Ukraine Separatists Try To Crank Up WWII Tank*
> 
> Separatists in eastern Ukraine are trying to crank up a 1943-vintage Soviet tank that was part of a World War II memorial in their fight for an independent republic linked to Russia, according to Russian news outlets.
> 
> For decades,* the IS-3 tank* has been sitting on a stone pedestal as a monument in the town of Kostiantynivka, the Russian ITAR-Tass news agency reported last week. (The “IS” stands for the late Soviet dictator Joseph, or Iosif, Stalin.)
> 
> The press agency of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic said that “Our craftsmen have managed to start the engine of the IS-3 tank displayed on a platform in a park,” ITAR-Tass said. “The tank is being prepared and will engage in combat soon.”
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## MilEME09

Even our poor M72's could break its armour, an IS-3 would just be a death trap, not to mention the tank had a lot of mechanical issues that made it not as great as the Soviets made the west believe


----------



## The Bread Guy

> Russia’s top diplomat on Wednesday acknowledged for the first time an official relationship with pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, the same day that one of their top leaders made a surprise appearance in Moscow to whip up support for his cause.
> 
> Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that after Ukrainian leaders declined Moscow’s request in late May to allow Russian humanitarian aid into eastern Ukraine, Russia started to send it in anyway — via the pro-Russian separatist forces who earlier this month punched gaping holes into the border between eastern Ukraine and Russia.
> 
> “We are trying to provide humanitarian aid to those who have not left the conflict zone yet,” Lavrov told Lamberto Zannier, the secretary general of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, at a meeting in Moscow. “We applied to the Ukrainian authorities with a request in late May for permission to deliver such aid. We were refused with an official note, so we are providing aid with the support of self-defense forces, who are worried about their fathers, mothers, wives and children.”
> 
> Lavrov did not give details, and a spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry declined to comment. Russia’s Emergency Situations Ministry, the agency that typically coordinates humanitarian aid, said it was not involved in any efforts to help residents of eastern Ukraine. The Russian Foreign Ministry said May 30 that eastern Ukrainians had requested “humanitarian aid, primarily medicine.” ....


_Washington Post_, 11 Jun 14


----------



## The Bread Guy

*"INITIAL REPORT ONLY" CAVEAT!*​


> Ukraine's interior minister has said that three tanks have crossed the border from Russia into rebel areas of the east and fighting is under way.
> 
> The tanks entered Ukraine along with other armour through a checkpoint controlled by rebels in the Luhansk region, Arsen Avakov said.
> 
> (....)
> 
> Mr Avakov said the tanks had crossed the border from Russia along with armoured personnel carriers and artillery pieces in the Dyakove area of Luhansk region before moving into the neighbouring Donetsk region.
> 
> There, Ukraine's interior minister said, the tanks headed for the town of Snizhne on Thursday morning. Two then proceeded to the town of Horlivka and were attacked by government forces.
> 
> "The fight is under way," Mr Avakov said. "I cannot say about its final outcome, but part of this column has been destroyed."
> 
> Unverified video has been posted on YouTube of a battle tank rolling down a street said to be in Snizhne. The footage was shot from a flat overlooking the street ....


BBC, 12 Jun 14



> Russia has sent three tanks to Donetsk region, but they were intercepted by Ukrainian troops near the town of Snizhne, Donetsk region, the Censor.NET online newspaper has reported, citing Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov.
> 
> "Tonight, three T-72 tanks crossed Ukraine's state border from Russia. One tank is in the town of Snizhne. Two other tanks moved out of the town. In the vicinity of Snizhne these tanks were intercepted by Ukrainian troops. The fight is ongoing. There are reports that a Russian T-72 was hit," the newspaper quoted Avakov as saying.
> 
> According to Censor.NET, the Russian military in the immediate vicinity of the border with Ukraine have additional forces - armor and Grad BM-21 multiple rocket launcher systems - that could also be sent into Ukraine at any time.
> 
> Earlier, the head of the Information Resistance group, Dmytro Tymchuk, wrote on his page on Facebook that illegal armed groups in Snizhne had received two tanks, thought to be T-72s.
> 
> "In Ukraine, these tanks were decommissioned from the arsenal of the Armed Forces. However, they are in service with the Russian army. There is also evidence that APCs available to militants in Snizhne were previously captured by Russian soldiers in Crimea at the military units of Ukrainian coastal defense troops," Tymchuk said ....


Interfax-Ukraine, 12 Jun 14
*"INITIAL REPORT ONLY" CAVEAT!*​
Meanwhile, elsewhere in the Perogie Kingdom, Ukrainian media say protesters are pissed enough at border guards to rally at the border guard HQ and there's word in Russian media of a National Guard unit not being entirely satisified with how it's being treated in the anti-terror op (ATO).  

The good news (in Ukrainian)?  ATO troops are being promised a raise!


----------



## PanaEng

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> Even our poor M72's could break its armour, an IS-3 would just be a death trap, not to mention the tank had a lot of mechanical issues that made it not as great as the Soviets made the west believe


It's not the asset that's important; it's the image it portrays - of poor, local freedom fighters resorting to museum pieces to defend their homeland and wishing mother Russia will lend a hand...


----------



## KerryBlue

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Meanwhile, elsewhere in the Perogie Kingdom, Ukrainian media say protesters are pissed enough at border guards to rally at the border guard HQ and there's word in Russian media of a National Guard unit not being entirely satisified with how it's being treated in the anti-terror op (ATO).



Vice interviewed many members of the "Donbass" battalion, and they are not an official National Guard Unit. They are pro-Ukrainians living in donbass who have through their own initiative came together to counter the pro-russian forces. 



> With the Ukrainian army struggling to contain the grab for power by the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) in the Donetsk Oblast, armed pro-Ukrainian militias have been quietly taking matters into their own hands.
> 
> One of these groups, the Donbas Battalion, has been attacking DPR checkpoints and occupied buildings.



More at link
https://news.vice.com/video/russian-roulette-dispatch-39


----------



## The Bread Guy

KerryBlue said:
			
		

> Vice interviewed many members of the "Donbass" battalion, and they are not an official National Guard Unit. They are pro-Ukrainians living in donbass who have through their own initiative came together to counter the pro-russian forces.
> 
> More at link
> https://news.vice.com/video/russian-roulette-dispatch-39


The Vice-mentioned "Donbass Battalion" is, indeed, a volunteer pro-Ukrainian militia.  This Russian media article refers specifically to the UKR National Guard, part of the Interior Ministry.   To add to the confusion, the UKR NG unit members often have to buy their own kit or get it donated, too.


----------



## MilEME09

http://www.funker530.com/white-phosphorus-possibly-used-against-pro-russian-forces/


Here is a video reportedly of Ukrainian forces using White Phosphorus rounds against pro-russian forces, while un-confirmed, it would be a dangerous move by Ukraine, I do believe using WP against personal is against the Geneva convention.


----------



## KerryBlue

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> The Vice-mentioned "Donbass Battalion" is, indeed, a volunteer pro-Ukrainian militia.  This Russian media article refers specifically to the UKR National Guard, part of the Interior Ministry.   To add to the confusion, the UKR NG unit members often have to buy their own kit or get it donated, too.



Well the National Guard was stood up again in March 2014, after 14 years inactive as a result of Kuchma's cost cutting measures. 3 months isn't a lot of time to get an army organized and ready. Logistics issues should be expected, it is unfortunate however that these units are the ones being deployed to the east instead of ones that have counter insurgent operational experience learned in Iraq.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KerryBlue said:
			
		

> Well the National Guard was stood up again in March 2014, after 14 years inactive as a result of Kuchma's cost cutting measures. 3 months isn't a lot of time to get an army organized and ready. Logistics issues should be expected, it is unfortunate however that these units are the ones being deployed to the east instead of ones that have counter insurgent operational experience learned in Iraq.


Tru enough, but it sounds like the Ukrainian army also has logistical issues, too, and they were around before the NG, so it appears "logistics" is a major issue for everyone there.

Meanwhile here's a good source for some detailed analysis of the reports/imagery of (Russian?) tanks in Eastern Ukraine.


----------



## vonGarvin

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> I do believe using WP against personal is against the Geneva convention.


You are mistaken.  WP can be used as a casualty producer.


----------



## Journeyman

Technoviking said:
			
		

> You are mistaken.  WP can be used as a casualty producer.



Well I was taught that if WP is used to produce smoke, and injuries are sustained _coincidentally_, such is war.

But if you're using WP specifically for the burning properties to be "a casualty producer," then the causing of those injuries or death prohibits its use, being now considered as a 'chemical weapon' rather than an 'obscurant.'


Although, a) I may be mistaken, and b) I doubt many in that current AO give a rat's buttock about nuances of war-fighting conventions.


----------



## CougarKing

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> *"INITIAL REPORT ONLY" CAVEAT!*​BBC, 12 Jun 14



Mr. Milnews, 

Any further news of armoured incursions other than the BBC report and other initial sources above? 

Could it be possible that these particular armoured troops might not be following their chain of command's orders and thus acting independently because of pro-separatist sympathies?  While trying to provoke an escalation and thus more direct, conventional military action by Moscow?


----------



## McG

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> Could it be possible that these particular armoured troops might not be following their chain of command's orders and thus acting independently because of pro-separatist sympathies?  While trying to provoke an escalation and thus more direct, conventional military action by Moscow?


... or, so the Russian IO campaign will claim.


----------



## The Bread Guy

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> Mr. Milnews,
> 
> Any further news of armoured incursions other than the BBC report and other initial sources above?


Yes


			
				milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Meanwhile here's a good source for some detailed analysis of the reports/imagery of (Russian?) tanks in Eastern Ukraine.


Also, this ....


> .... Where the tanks came from is also unknown. Whether they rolled across the border from Russia, as Ukrainian Interior Minister Arseny Avakov said, or are from a Ukrainian military stockpile, as the rebels say, is up for debate.
> 
> Regardless of the answer, the two tanks seen by Reuters correspondents represent the heaviest weaponry yet seen in the hands of the rebels fighting to push their self-proclaimed territories in eastern Ukraine out of Kiev's orbit.
> 
> "We got them from a military warehouse," said one of the rebels wearing a loose-fitting camouflage balaclava, as the tanks rolled out of the rebels' makeshift headquarters on the grounds of a coal mine ....


Anything you want to share will happily add to the "open source stew" here.



			
				S.M.A. said:
			
		

> Could it be possible that these particular armoured troops might not be following their chain of command's orders and thus acting independently because of pro-separatist sympathies?  While trying to provoke an escalation and thus more direct, conventional military action by Moscow?


Nothing is impossible, especially in this fight.

That said, if the tanks _had_ defected, the pro-federalist/Russian/separatist forces may have been more likely to _say_ that as a shot against the Ukrainian government.  After all, in an environment where the Ukrainian Info-machine is sharing open letters where one part of the security apparatus is feeling left in the lurch by another (in Ukrainian), a defection would be an IO bonus to the "Fighting Easterners".

But that's just the take of one geek guy sitting in his gym shorts & t-shirt in the basement, heavily dependant on Google Translate and Twitter - YMMV.


----------



## KerryBlue

Youtube video of the 3 tanks and trucks in the city of Makiivka. Makiivka is 25 km from the capital Donetsk. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q977zU2J1ww

To my untrained eye these tanks look to be T-72's with ERA, and the trucks are the Kamaz 5350. 

For some reason watching the video they don't look to be Ukrainian. The lead truck flying a Russian Flag is also probably not good for the whole "we're not involved" image Russia is going for. 

But it's all guess work at this point.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KerryBlue said:
			
		

> Youtube video of the 3 tanks and trucks in the city of Makiivka. Makiivka is 25 km from the capital Donetsk.
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q977zU2J1ww
> 
> To my untrained eye these tanks look to be T-72's with ERA, and the trucks are the Kamaz 5350.


Proponents of the "Ukrainian tanks stolen/borrowed/liberated" theory say they're T-64s - been too long since my last AFV recognition classes for me to call for certain.  I'll leave it to those with better eyes than mine


----------



## Journeyman

I'm saying T-64 because of the road wheels, exhaust on right rear corner, and I couldn't see the IR light that tends to be on the right side of the main armament on the T-72s.


.....and because I'd rather play this game than watch TV's 'time-filling' as election results trickle in; I'll read about it in the morning


----------



## a_majoor

Looking upthread at reports that the Ukrainian forces have used WP, I think it is only a matter of time before the "not Russians" begin responding with thermobaric rockets and other flame weapons. Russian forces have been huge proponents and users of such weapons in places like Afghanistan and Chechnya, so if some somehow fall into the hands of the "not Russians", the Ukrainian forces will have a deterrent against using WP or flame weapons against separatist forces in eastern Ukraine.

Blasting border posts, police stations or other government infrastructure in parts of Ukraine with flame weapons will also accelerate the ability of the separatists to destabilize the government's hold on its territory.


----------



## MilEME09

While leaning towards T-64BM due to the placement of the ERA, and the type of ERA. At the same time though I can't find any images of Ukrainian T-64BM's using reactive armour on the upper Glacious plate which seems to look like its there in a V pattern on the tank in question. If it wasn't there then we could make out the distinctive V blade on the front if it was a T-72. Also the Ukrainian Army only has a handfull of T-64BM Bulats in their inventory I have doubts they were just captured from a military depot. It could be an attempt to disguise Russian tanks as Ukrainian ones to help funnel kit to the separatists.


----------



## vonGarvin

Journeyman said:
			
		

> Well I was taught that if WP is used to produce smoke, and injuries are sustained _coincidentally_, such is war.
> 
> But if you're using WP specifically for the burning properties to be "a casualty producer," then the causing of those injuries or death prohibits its use, being now considered as a 'chemical weapon' rather than an 'obscurant.'
> 
> 
> Although, a) I may be mistaken, and b) I doubt many in that current AO give a rat's buttock about nuances of war-fighting conventions.



Such is my understanding, as out dated as it is by 14+ years since my Adv Mortar course.

(I think it was on a laundry list of "uses of WP ammunition": screening, blinding, signalling, casualty producing....)


----------



## KerryBlue

http://www.stopfake.org/video-2004-goda-iz-iraka-predstavili-kak-aktualnye-sobytiya-pod-slavyanskom/


Not going to say much other then the top video is the one being purported to be the use of WP in Ukraine as seen of the Funker530 website. The one below is a video from CNN during the Iraq war. 

In my eyes they look eerily similar, and wouldn't be the first time Russia/eastern Ukraine used video and image from different conflicts and tried to pass them off as there own...

http://www.examiner.com/list/russia-s-top-20-lies-about-ukraine

*adjust for slight Ukrainian bias*


----------



## The Bread Guy

This, from the other side of the fence ....


> At least one Ukrainian armored vehicle crossed the Russian border with Ukraine Friday overnight and stopped in the Rostov Region, according to Russia’s Security Service. The military abandoned the vehicle and returned to Ukraine.
> 
> The Ukrainian armored vehicle stopped in near the village of Millerovo, said the head of the press department of the Federal Security Service (FSB) in Rostov Region, Vasily Malaev.
> 
> Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the Foreign Ministry to issue a formal protest to Ukraine’s government, said his press secretary Dmitry Peskov.
> 
> There are also reports that there was not one, but two armored vehicles. A source from the FSB told LifeNews Channel that two armored vehicles crossed the Russian border.
> 
> Initially just one APC entered Russian territory, however it broke down, LifeNews was told. It was discovered by the Border Service, however, Russia’s troops failed to take the Ukrainian military personnel captive as another armored vehicle came to the rescue from Ukraine’s Lugansk Region.
> 
> After that the Ukrainian troops fled the territory, returning to Ukraine, leaving the dsabled vehicle behind in Russia.
> 
> In response to the incident, the Ukrainian Border Service said that the military was surrounded by self-defense forces so they were forced to cross the Russian border to reach new locations of their units, NTV TV channel reported. Border authorities also assured that all 26 border officers returned to Ukraine via another checkpoint ....



Here's what it was said to have looked like, according to Russian TV (source):


----------



## KerryBlue

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> This, from the other side of the fence ....
> Here's what it was said to have looked like, according to Russian TV (source):



But wait don't the pro-Russian insurgents control most of the border points in that region, how did a Ukrainian military convoy get lost and end up in Russia....

This is turning into a tit for tat accusation. Ukraine claims they shoot down a Russian drone, Russian claims they shot down a Ukrainian drone, Ukraine claims Russian tanks breach the border, Russia does the same...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Coincidentally, it seems to be getting busier in the skies of our NATO member nation buddy Latvia - these from Latvia's military Twitter feed since Tuesday:

"NATO Baltic Air Policing QRA Mig-29 jets on 10 June scrambled RU Armed Forces Il-20 over the Baltic Sea."
"NATO Baltic Air Policing QRA F-16 jets on 10 June scrambled RU Armed Forces 4x Su-27, 1x An-26 over the Baltic Sea."
"NATO Baltic Air Policing QRA F-16 jets on 11 June scrambled RU Armed Forces A-50 over the Baltic Sea."
"NATO Baltic Air Policing QRA Mig-29 jets on 11 June scrambled RU Armed Forces Il-76 over the Baltic Sea."
"NATO Baltic Air Policing QRA Mig-29 jets on 11 June scrambled RU Armed Forces Il-76, Su-24 over the Baltic Sea."
"NATO Baltic Air Policing QRA Mig-29 jets on 12 June scrambled RU Armed Forces 4x Il-76; F-16 jets - 1x Tu-134, 7x Su-34, and 1x Su-24."
"NATO Baltic Air Policing QRA F-16 jets on 12 June scrambled RU Armed Forces Il-76. It was alrerady 4st scramble today."
"NATO Baltic Air Policing QRA F-16 jets on 13 June scrambled RU Armed Forces An-26 over the Baltic Sea."
"NATO Baltic Air Policing QRA F-16 jets on 13 June scrambled RU Armed Forces Su-24 over the Baltic Sea."
"NATO Baltic Air Policing QRA Mig-29 jets on 13 June scrambled RU Armed Forces Il-20 over the Baltic Sea."


----------



## MilEME09

That looks more like a 2S1 rather then an APC, I don't recall any APC's having rear turrets in the Russian/ Ex-soviet countries


----------



## KerryBlue

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> That looks more like a 2S1 rather then an APC, I don't recall any APC's having rear turrets in the Russian/ Ex-soviet countries


It looks about right for a BMP-1. Long angled nose, mid mounted turret and what appears to be the larger oval crew hatches near the rear...


----------



## a_majoor

Maybe a BMP-2. The main gun seems more like a 30mm cannon than the 73mm the BMP-1 sported.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> That looks more like a 2S1 rather then an APC, I don't recall any APC's having rear turrets in the Russian/ Ex-soviet countries



Definitely not a 2S1.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Thucydides said:
			
		

> Maybe a BMP-2. The main gun seems more like a 30mm cannon than the 73mm the BMP-1 sported.



Thats what I was thinking, but it still doesn't look right. Unfortunately the photo is so blurry that its pretty hard to make out.

Attached is an image of an Finnish BMP-2 for comparsion.


----------



## George Wallace

Retired AF Guy said:
			
		

> Definitely not a 2S1.



Agreed.  Barrel too small.....I will go with the BMP 2......Again, the barrel is too small to be a BMP 3.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Link to BBC report on the mysterious MBT that has appeared in Ukraine. Includes satellite imagery released by NATO.

 Russia and Ukraine's mystery tanks


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, a UKR transport plane was shot down in the East, killing 49 troops.  

While one separatist source speaking to Ukrainian media*** is quoted saying it was shot down because it was in a separatist-imposed "no fly zone", another separatist source speaking to Russian media says the Ukrainians may have shot it out of the air themselves.

Let the IO games continue ....

*** - Links to article in Ukrainian.


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Meanwhile, a UKR transport plane was shot down in the East, killing 49 troops.
> 
> While one separatist source speaking to Ukrainian media*** is quoted saying it was shot down because it was in a separatist-imposed "no fly zone", another separatist source speaking to Russian media says the Ukrainians may have shot it out of the air themselves.
> 
> Let the IO games continue ....
> 
> *** - Links to article in Ukrainian.


Yet another thoeory is tossed into the IO pot, this one from Ukraine's defence minister ....


> *One version of the destruction of a Ukrainian military transport aircraft in Luhansk with 49 servicemen on board is a betrayal on the part of air traffic controllers.* — Ukraine’s acting Defense Minister Mykhailo Koval said this live on the Ukraina television channel.  “The criminals who fired at this plane were very well prepared. This crime was prepared professionally. There could be a betrayal among air traffic controllers who tracked the flight. Militants wanted to shot down the plane as two missiles were launched and fire was opened with a large-caliber machine gun to destroy the aircraft,” Channel 5 quoted Koval as saying ….



Meanwhile, _"Russia to cut gas supply to Ukraine"_ - should be feeling THAT soon enough ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

If yuu're a Russian orbat geek enthusiast, here's an assessment (in Ukrainian - also attached - translated below via Google) of what Russian forces are allegedly near/approaching the UKR border, via the Ukrainian Secretary of the National Security and Defence Committee, Andrei Parubiy:


> .... According to him, June 15, Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to the border areas of Ukraine redeployed *some units of the 76 th Pskov landing assault division*. In addition, *four military transport aircraft Il-76 was made overturning the personnel of about 150 soldiers and Technology 76 th landing assault division Millerovo* to the airport, which is located 20 kilometers from the border with Ukraine.  Andrew Parubiy also noted that according to available information, it is planned to send to the border regions of Ukraine and *battalion task force troops north shore fleet****. "The size of the Armed Forces of Russia, which are concentrated near the state border of Ukraine, has 16 thousand soldiers. Also in the Crimea to 22 thousand troops and in the PMR - up to 3500 soldiers who are ready at any time to move to a more proactive, "- he added ....


*** -  Translated elsewhere as meaning Russia's Northern Fleet


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some highlights:

_"*Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko ordered his forces to cease fire Friday and halt military operations for a week against pro-Russia separatists in the country's east* — the first step in a peace plan he hopes will end the conflict that has cost hundreds of lives ...."_ (Reuters)
_"*The self-defence forces of the Lugansk People’s Republic have refused to lay down arms in response to today’s statement of Ukrainian President Pyotr Poroshenko on unilateral ceasefire in southeast Ukraine until June 27, Agence France Presse Valery Bolotov, the head of the Lugansk People’s Republic, as saying*.  “Our people will not lay down arms until Ukraine does not pull out all troops from our territory,” Bolotov said ...."_  (ITAR-TASS)
_"*Ukrainian President Pyotr Poroshenko’s statement on ceasefire more looks like an ultimatum to Ukraine’s Southeast, the Russian presidential press service told Itar-Tass on Friday.*  “In the current situation, the Russian side should thoroughly analyze the text of a relevant decision by the Ukrainian president and the procedure of its implementation,” the press service said.  “A primary analysis unfortunately shows that this is not an invitation to peace and talks but an ultimatum to Ukraine’s Southeastern militiamen to lay down arms,” it said ...."_  (ITAR-TASS)
_"*Moscow expresses resolute protests over the shelling of Russian territory by the Ukrainian military and it demands an immediate investigation of this provocative act, the Foreign Ministry said in a statement Friday night.*  "Friday, June 20, Russia's Novoshakhtinsk border checkpoint (in the southern Rostov region Itar-Tass) underwent shelling by the Ukrainian military," it said. "The incident has inflicted a partial destruction and a customs officer has received sever wounds."  "The Russian side expressed a resolute protest over the aggressive action," the statement said. "We demand that Kiev do an urgent and prompt investigation of all the circumstances attendant to this crime, which broke the basic norms and principles of international law." ...."_  (ITAR-TASS)
_*"Ukraine: Russian Forces On 'Full Combat Alert' "*_ (European Commission news aggregator)

Finally, from the "I couldn't make this up" file, Donetsk militant/insurgent/federalist/pro-Russian forces are recruiting tank crew members via Twitter (in Russian).


----------



## CougarKing

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Finally, from the "I couldn't make this up" file, Donetsk militant/insurgent/federalist/pro-Russian forces are recruiting tank crew members via Twitter (in Russian).



Speaking of which...more Russian armour rolls into Ukraine:

Business Insider



> *Ukraine Wants A Ceasefire — Russia Is Sending A Bunch Of Tanks Into Ukraine*
> 
> BRETT LOGIURATO
> 
> JUN. 20, 2014, 1:16 PM
> 
> (...EDITED)
> 
> The Ukrainian government briefed Western diplomats in Kiev on Friday and told them it has evidence* that 10 additional tanks, along with fuel trucks and supporting vehicles, crossed the border between the countries in the last 24 hours*. The U.S. official said the U.S. government has independently confirmed additional tanks departed from a deployment site in southwest Russia on Thursday.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## The Bread Guy

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> Speaking of which...more Russian armour rolls into Ukraine:
> 
> Business Insider


1)  No, no, no - you mean "local self-defence armour", sorta like these guys a while back @ Simferopol airport?




2)  An interesting anniversary today (22 Jun) for those tracking the "Ukrainians as Nazis/fascists" story line.

Meanwhile, Canada extends sanctions against Eastern rebels/federalists/separatists and Russia's airborne boss:


> .... *Russian Individuals*
> 
> Vladimir Shamanov, commander of the Russian Airborne Troops.
> 
> *Ukrainian Individuals*
> 
> Petr Grigorievich Jarosh, acting head of the Federal Migration Service office for Crimea.
> 
> Oleg Grigorievich Kozyura, acting head of the Federal Migration Service office of Sevastopol.
> 
> Viacheslav Ponomariov, self-declared “mayor” of Slaviansk.
> 
> Igor Mykalaiovych Bezler, one of the leaders of the self proclaimed militia of Horlivka.
> 
> Igor Kakidzyanov, one of the leaders of the militia of the self proclaimed “Donetsk People’s Republic.”
> 
> Oleg Tsariov, member of the Ukrainian parliament who publicly called for creation of a new “Federal Republic of Novorossia.”
> 
> Roman Lyagin, head of the “Donetsk People’s Republic” Central Electoral Commission.
> 
> Aleksandr Malykhin, head of the “Luhansk People’s Republic” Central Electoral Commission.
> 
> Natalia Vladimirovna Poklonskaya, prosecutor of Crimea.
> 
> Igor Sergeievich Shevchenko, acting prosecutor of Sevastopol.
> 
> *Entity (Ukrainian)*
> 
> Feodosia Enterprise, Crimea-based oil company expropriated/nationalized by the self-declared CrimeanRepublic on March 17, 2014 ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some highlights ....

_“Lawmakers to consider Putin’s request against use of Russian army in Ukraine on June 25″_  (ITAR-TASS)
_“Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko thinks that the cancellation by President Vladimir Putin of his decision to use the Russian army in Ukraine is the first practical for the settlement of the situation in Donbas, the press service of the head of state has reported .... ”_ (ukrinform.ua)
_“Donetsk talks result in agreements on ceasefire, release of hostages – Parubiy”_  (Interfax-Ukraine)
10 x UKR troops released from captivity in Eastern Ukraine (Ukrainian Ministry of Defence Facebook, in Ukrainian)


----------



## vonGarvin

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> 2)  An interesting anniversary today (22 Jun) for those tracking the "Ukrainians as Nazis/fascists" story line.



I think that this also made 22 June an interesting anniversary.


----------



## The Bread Guy

General Disorder said:
			
		

> I think that this also made 22 June an interesting anniversary.


I really _do_ learn something new every day.  Another _very_ interesting anniversary - thanks for sharing!


----------



## Kirkhill

Ceasefire in the air - except for the occasional helo and the odd recalcitrant faux-republic.

Vlad doesn't win everything he wants but he leaves southern Ukraine destabilized between the enclaves of Novorossiya and Transdniestria.

On the other hand with Crimean Tatars siding with Ukrainians and Chechens and Ossetians siding with Vlad (maybe?) I am not convinced that anybody is in control of much of anything outside of Kyiv and Moskva.


----------



## Edward Campbell

And Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has completed a 180o course correction and, according to a report in the _Globe and Mail_, he has signed the deal with the EU that former President Viktor Yanukovych rejected, provoking, first, internal dissent in Western Ukraine and, later, _separatist_ movements in South and Eastern Ukraine.


----------



## The Bread Guy

The latest:  Ukraine wraps up ceasefire, says it'll start push to take back land (more here and here), while the OSCE cuts back its monitors until it gets safer and the Ukrainian military continues to fundraise for first aid supplies.


----------



## The Bread Guy

More talking = yet another multi-lateral declaration (this time, by the Foreign Ministers of Russia, Ukraine, Germany & France) - highlights mine:


> The Foreign Ministers of Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine strongly reconfirm their commitment to sustainable peace and stability in Ukraine. In this context they stress the necessity of a sustainable ceasefire, to be agreed upon swiftly and to be observed by all concerned, thus putting an end to violence in Eastern Ukraine.
> 
> *Ministers urge that the Contact Group should resume no later than July 5th with the goal of reaching an unconditional and mutually agreed sustainable cease-fire.  This cease-fire should be monitored by the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine in conformity with its mandate.*  In that respect, Ministers agree to take all necessary measures and use their influence on the concerned parties with a view to achieving this goal. Ministers stress the importance of a swift release of all hostages.
> 
> *Ministers welcome Russia's readiness to grant Ukrainian border guards access to Russian territory in order to participate in the control of border crossings at the checkpoints Gukovo and Donetsk while the mutually agreed cease-fire is in place*. This shall be done in close collaboration between Russian and Ukrainian border authorities and pending the return of the Ukrainian checkpoints Izvarino and Krasnopartizansk to Ukrainian government control.
> 
> *Ministers invite the OSCE to take all necessary steps to deploy OSCE-observers in response to the Russian invitation at the Russian checkpoints Gukovo and Donetsk while the mutually agreed cease-fire is in place*. All sides must contribute to a secure environment.
> 
> Ministers stress that this would contribute to an effective control of the Russian-Ukrainian border and called for regular and expeditious exchange of relevant information between Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE.
> 
> Ministers emphasize the need to ensure safety and security of journalists working in the area of violence.


We'll see ....


----------



## CougarKing

Is it possible that these T-64s are not Russian and could have come from other CIS/former Warsaw Pact states?



> *Ukraine captures 'Russian' T-64 MBT near Donetsk*
> 
> Nicholas de Larrinaga, London - IHS Jane's Defence Weekly
> 30 June 2014
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence (MoD) published pictures on 29 June of a T-64BV main battle tank (MBT), captured in east Ukraine, that it claims has come from Russian military stocks.
> 
> _"Based on a preliminary analysis of these samples of weapons and equipment, most likely we can speak of the Russian Federation as the country of origin of seized vehicles and weapons,"_ an MoD statement read.
> 
> The T-64 in question was captured during an attack on the Ukrainian military near Artemivsk, in Donetsk region, the MoD stated, adding it _"was not and is not"_ registered as part of the inventory of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
> 
> The MoD states that the _"T-64BV under this serial number was issued in October 1987 at the Kharkov Tank Factory and sent to a military unit, which at that time was stationed in Russia. Currently, there is an opportunity to argue that the tank... until recently, was on the list of the 205th Infantry Brigade, which is stationed in the Russian city of Budenovskiy. These serial numbers are the tank hull number, the numbers of its units and batteries manufactured at a business in St Petersburg"_.
> 
> Images of T-64 MBTs - at first wrongly identified at T-72s - in rebel hands in east Ukraine first emerged on 12 June, which were claimed by both the MoD and NATO to have been shipped across the Russian border. NATO subsequently published satellite imagery on 14 June of MBTs at a Russian facility at Rostov-na-Donu apparently ready to be shipped into Ukraine.
> 
> The T-64B is the final production configuration of the T-64, including a new hull and new turret armour package, with the T-64BV version being fitted with explosive reactive armour (ERA). The MBT is armed with a 125 mm smoothbore 2A26M2 gun guided by an integrated fire-control system, has a crew of three and features a combat weight of 42.5 tonnes. Outwardly the tank appears similar to the T-72 (particularly when fitted with ERA), but there are several distinguishing differences, including the location of its infrared searchlight (on the left-side of the T-64s turret; on the right-side of the T-72s turret); its road wheels (solid on a T-64; indented on the T-72); and its exhaust.
> 
> It is unclear how many MBTs may currently be in rebel hands, at least three are known (prior to this capture), while unconfirmed reports indicate that their numbers may reach double figures.
> 
> *IHS Jane's 360*


----------



## The Bread Guy

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> Is it possible that these T-64s are not Russian and could have come from other CIS/former Warsaw Pact states?


Some on Twitter say they could have been built in Ukraine before being sold to USSR/Russians (with the pro-Russians saying, "hey, they were built in Ukraine, reappear in Ukraine, and you're blaming the Russians?!?").


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest from the UKR President's office (in Ukrainian):  changes coming in the defence team line-up, probably in part because ....


> .... even in the face of today's challenges to the state when all forces must mobilize recorded evidence of corruption on the part of military leaders ....


More from media here, here and here.


----------



## CougarKing

Putin: "Gavno! (s***!) Foiled again!"

Military.com



> *Ukraine Claims Victory in Rebel Stronghold*
> 
> Associated Press | Jul 05, 2014 | by Yuras Karmanau and Balint Szlanko
> DONETSK, Ukraine -- *A rebel stronghold in east Ukraine has been taken by government troops*, the country's president and a spokesman for the rebels said Saturday.
> 
> President Petro Poroshenko said in a statement that government troops took the city of Slovyansk, a city of about 100,000 that has been a center of the fighting between Kiev's troops and the pro-Russian insurgents, after a night of fighting.
> 
> Poroshenko commanded the armed forces to "raise the government's flag" over Slovyansk, which has been under rebel control since early April when they seized the city's administrative and police buildings.
> 
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## MilEME09

If thats the case I would call this a critical turning point against the rebels


----------



## midget-boyd91

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> If thats the case I would call this a critical turning point against the rebels


Perhaps, but maybe not as well.. Could be such thing as Ukraine making too many advances back to the East, too close for Russia to ignore the opportunity to launch another intervention "on behalf of and in defense of Russians in Ukraine."
There's also many examples of rebels suffering defeats very publicly and costly but still managing to emerge victorious in the end run despite the losses.... 

....Hoth being an obvious example


----------



## The Bread Guy

.... to Lithuania - this from the Info-machine:


> Upon the conclusion of training with NATO Allies operating in Romania in August, Royal Canadian Air Force CF-18 aircraft will relocate to Lithuania to augment the NATO Baltic Air Policing (BAP) mission block 36 from September to December 2014.
> 
> “Our Government is steadfast in our support for Ukraine and will not stand idly by while its sovereignty and territorial integrity are threatened,” said Minister of National Defence Rob Nicholson. “We will continue to stand by our NATO allies to promote security and stability in Central and Eastern Europe. Through the hard work of our men and women in uniform, Canada will continue to demonstrate the strength of allied solidarity in response to Russian aggression.” ....


----------



## Fishbone Jones

> “We will continue to stand by our NATO allies to promote security and stability in Central and Eastern Europe. Through the hard work of our men and women in uniform, Canada will continue to demonstrate the strength of allied solidarity in response to Russian aggression.” ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, Russian and other media say Russia's underwhelmed at reports of mortar shells falling into Russia (with Ukrainian denials).

Also, even by Ukraine's own government map (attached), there appears to still be a good chunk of the east to "unfederalize".


----------



## Retired AF Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Meanwhile, Russian and other media say Russia's underwhelmed at reports of mortar shells falling into Russia (with Ukrainian denials).
> 
> Also, even by Ukraine's own government map (attached), there appears to still be a good chunk of the east to "unfederalize".



If the map is accurate, then the Ukrainians next move should be an offensive along the Ukrainian/Russian border, isolating the pro-Russian rebels from their Russian support bases.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Retired AF Guy said:
			
		

> If the map is accurate, then the Ukrainians next move should be *an offensive along the Ukrainian/Russian border*, isolating the pro-Russian rebels from their Russian support bases.


And here's today's map (usual caveats about info-machines notwithstanding), showing maybe just that.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some more of the latest:

Ukrainian reports of a rocket/missile firing from Russia shooting down a Ukrainian plane (with reports of yet another UKR warplane shot down via MANPAD).
Russian reports of UKR rockets hitting Russian villages.
The U.S. _"assess(es) that Russia continues to provide them with heavy weapons, other military equipment and financing, and continues to allow militants to enter Ukraine freely,"_ with word of a “Donetsk Peoples’ Republic” recruiting office going up in Moscow.
Maidan and Right Sector folks are reportedly occupying government buildings in Kiev.
Now, back to your regularly-scheduled s**t show ....


----------



## Colin Parkinson

So what are the odds that it would crash into a military conflict zone?


http://www.ndtv.com/article/world/malaysian-passenger-plane-crashes-in-ukraine-near-russian-border-interfax-news-agency-560455
Kiev:  A Malaysian passenger airliner with 295 people on board crashed in Ukraine near the Russian border on Thursday, the Interfax news agency cited an aviation industry source as saying.

The Boeing plane was flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, it said. Reuters could not immediately confirm the report.

The Interfax report said the plane came down 50 km (20 miles) short of entering Russian airspace. It "began to drop, afterwards it was found burning on the ground on Ukrainian territory," the unnamed source said.

The plane appeared to have come down in a region of military action where Ukrainian government forces are battling pro-Russian separatists.

A separate unnamed source in the Ukrainian security apparatus, quoted by Interfax, said the plane disappeared from radar at a height of 10,000 metres after which it came down near the town of Shakhtyorsk.


----------



## KerryBlue

> Malaysia Airlines passenger jet reportedly shot down in Ukraine
> 
> A Malaysian Airlines passenger plane with 295 aboard was shot down by a surface-to-air missile in Ukraine near the Russian border, according to multiple reports.
> 
> Gerashenko says on his Facebook page the plane was flying at an altitude of 33,000 feet when it was hit Thursday by a missile fired from a Buk launcher. A similar launcher was seen by Associated Press journalists near the eastern Ukrainian town of Snizhne earlier Thursday.




http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/07/17/malaysia-airlines-jet-reportedly-crashes-in-ukraine/


For some reason if the reports are true and it was shot down, I can't see a trained Ukrainian air defense solider shooting down a passenger plane. However I can see an untrained seperatist seeing a big blip on the radar screen and clicking the shoot button.

Anyways if it does prove to be the separatists and the weapon used is traced back to Russia I foresee things getting quite ugly in Eastern Ukraine. 


<<<<Edited to add>>>>>


Here is what Igor Strelkov, Russian leader of Lugansk People Republic terrorist group, writes in his VKontakte account:
17.07.2014 17:50 (Moscow time)
In the region of Torez AN-26 plane has been shot, it is somewhere near the “Progress” mine.
We have warned them – not to fly “in our sky”.
Here is video-proof of yet another “bird fall”.
The bird has fallen behind the terricone, it missed the residential quarters. Peaceful citizens were not hurt.
There is also information on the second shot plane, “Su” as it seems

It looks like separatists mistook the airliner for a military transport plane.. no one has confirmed anything as of yet


http://vk.com/strelkov_info


----------



## The Bread Guy

KerryBlue said:
			
		

> Malaysia Airlines passenger jet reportedly shot down in Ukraine
> 
> A Malaysian Airlines passenger plane with 295 aboard was shot down by a surface-to-air missile in Ukraine near the Russian border, according to multiple reports.
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/07/17/malaysia-airlines-jet-reportedly-crashes-in-ukraine/
Click to expand...

Further to that ....

Russian media (1):  _"... A well-informed source informed with reference to objective control data that on Wednesday, a battery of Buk antiaircraft missile systems of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was deployed near Donetsk. At present, another battery of the same missile systems is being loaded in Kharkiv, the source said. He also noted that aircraft flying at the altitude of more than 10 thousand meters might be hit only with weapons like S-300 or Buk. According to the source, the militias don’t have such weapons, and cannot afford them. "_
Russian media (2), about 3 weeks ago:  _"The self-defense forces of Donetsk People’s Republic seized control of a Ukrainian anti-air military installation, RIA Novosti reports.  "The forces of Donetsk People’s Republic assumed control of A-1402 military base," the militia's representative said. According to him, it is an anti-aircraft missile forces facility equipped with Buk mobile surface-to-air missile systems ...."_ - original RIA-Novosti article in French and in Russian
 (screen capture of RUS version attached in case link doesn't work for you)
op:


----------



## KerryBlue

KerryBlue said:
			
		

> Here is what Igor Strelkov, Russian leader of Lugansk People Republic terrorist group, writes in his VKontakte account:
> 17.07.2014 17:50 (Moscow time)
> In the region of Torez AN-26 plane has been shot, it is somewhere near the “Progress” mine.
> We have warned them – not to fly “in our sky”.
> Here is video-proof of yet another “bird fall”.
> The bird has fallen behind the terricone, it missed the residential quarters. Peaceful citizens were not hurt.
> There is also information on the second shot plane, “Su” as it seems
> 
> It looks like separatists mistook the airliner for a military transport plane.. no one has confirmed anything as of yet





			
				milnews.ca said:
			
		

> http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/07/17/malaysia-airlines-jet-reportedly-crashes-in-ukraine/
> Further to that ....
> 
> Russian media (1):  _"... A well-informed source informed with reference to objective control data that on Wednesday, a battery of Buk antiaircraft missile systems of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was deployed near Donetsk. At present, another battery of the same missile systems is being loaded in Kharkiv, the source said. He also noted that aircraft flying at the altitude of more than 10 thousand meters might be hit only with weapons like S-300 or Buk. According to the source, the militias don’t have such weapons, and cannot afford them. "_
> Russian media (2), about 3 weeks ago:  _"The self-defense forces of Donetsk People’s Republic seized control of a Ukrainian anti-air military installation, RIA Novosti reports.  "The forces of Donetsk People’s Republic assumed control of A-1402 military base," the militia's representative said. According to him, it is an anti-aircraft missile forces facility equipped with Buk mobile surface-to-air missile systems ...."_ - original RIA-Novosti article in French and in Russian
> op:




Strelkov went from claiming they shot down a An-26 today to immediately denying they had involvement in shooting down the 777 


> 17.07.2014 Moscow, INTERFAX.RU - Guide Donetsk's Republic denies involvement in the fall of Malaysian aircraft "Boeing-777" near Donetsk. "Interfax" said a member of the Security Council of the Republic Sergey Kavtaradze.
> According to him, there is no available militia armament capable of shoot down the plane at an altitude of 10,000 kilometers. Consisting armed DNI portable anti-aircraft missiles have a maximum range of fire of three thousand meters.



seeing how no An-26 have been reported shot down today, they might have just inadvertently confessed to involvement with he shoot down. Coupled with the reports of rebels in possession of heavy air defense assets this could be the spark the national community needs to finally involve themselves.

If a link is established between AD assets and Russia they're gonna be in a lot of hot water with the international community.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KerryBlue said:
			
		

> If a link is established between AD assets and Russia they're gonna be in a lot of hot water with the international community.



And this breakdown by a McGill political scientist, via Twitter, re:  how U.S. int may track this to see *if  it was, indeed, shot down*:


> How might the US intelligence community determine who shot down #MH17, assuming it was shot down? (1/10)
> 
> SIGINT:  As @finriswolf notes, incidents like this often accompanied by panicked chatter among officials  “oops what did we just do” (2/10)
> 
> ELINT: Electronic emissions may ID SAMs in area and if launched, unlikely to tell from exactly where unless collection very proximate (3/10)
> 
> ELINT: There might also be some Ukrainian radar coverage of missile track, although unlikely. (4/10)
> 
> IMINT: Location of possible SAMs responsible via overhead imagery, although not 100% (collection gaps, weather, mobile systems) (5/10)
> 
> OSINT: Open source reports from media, social media, etc helpful in determining presence of possible SAM system (6/10)
> 
> OSINT: Also reported rebel claims of shoot-down (7/10)
> 
> PIR: Possible satellite detection of IR signature of weapons launch. Coverage and discrimination likely spotty though. (8/10)
> 
> HUMINT: Maybe someone inside knows something, although other technical means likely more useful in this case. (9/10)
> 
> In the end, it is is likely to be multiple overlapping sources all pointing in same direction. (10/10)


----------



## KerryBlue

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> And this breakdown by a McGill political scientist, via Twitter, re:  how U.S. int may track this to see *if  it was, indeed, shot down*:




Noticing and interesting trend with the Russian media. They seem to always shot themselves in the foot when they make claims. 2 weeks ago they're bragging how the rebels seized a military base with AD capabilities needed to shoot down a plane, and even the exact launcher being claimed to have shot down the plane. Now the rebels possibly shoot down a civi plane with captured AD asset and Russian media denies they have any such assets...

 :facepalm:


----------



## George Wallace

KerryBlue said:
			
		

> Noticing and interesting trend with the Russian media. They seem to always shot themselves in the foot when they make claims. 2 weeks ago they're bragging how the rebels seized a military base with AD capabilities needed to shoot down a plane, and even the exact launcher being claimed to have shot down the plane. Now the rebels possibly shoot down a civi plane with captured AD asset and Russian media denies they have any such assets...
> 
> :facepalm:



 >  Next we will have a Russian television crew film a reporter denying such a claim as he/she stands in such a system targeting and firing.  Memories of Iraq's Comical Ali


----------



## upandatom

Dafuq was a Civilian plane doing in a known area of conflict?

Malaysian Airlines, REALLY needs to get its shit sorted out. When I originally saw the Malaysian Airlines headline en Francais, I thought it was saying that the Russians actually shot it down from the ORIGINAL plane that went missing, then I found the English story and just shook my head. 

I am fairly certain there was not many civilian planes flying over around Afghanistan if they didnt have to, or Kabul/KAF wasnt their destination. What clown thought it would be ok to fly over a country in turmoil that has some of the best AA weaponry at its disposal??


----------



## George Wallace

upandatom said:
			
		

> I am fairly certain there was not many civilian planes flying over around Afghanistan if they didnt have to, or Kabul/KAF wasnt their destination. What clown thought it would be ok to fly over a country in turmoil that has some of the best AA weaponry at its disposal??



I am sure that if you look at it, a lot of airlines flying between Europe and India, Australia, Japan, China, Korea and other SE Asian destinations have been flying over, not only Afghanistan, but Chechnya, and other countries in turmoil in that region, many of whom have Anti Aircraft systems.


----------



## jollyjacktar

The Daily Mail is reporting a SAM brought it down.


----------



## Edward Campbell

upandatom said:
			
		

> Dafuq was a Civilian plane doing in a known area of conflict?
> 
> Malaysian Airlines, REALLY needs to get its shit sorted out. When I originally saw the Malaysian Airlines headline en Francais, I thought it was saying that the Russians actually shot it down from the ORIGINAL plane that went missing, then I found the English story and just shook my head.
> 
> I am fairly certain there was not many civilian planes flying over around Afghanistan if they didnt have to, or Kabul/KAF wasnt their destination. What clown thought it would be ok to fly over a country in turmoil that has some of the best AA weaponry at its disposal??




Here's the great circle path from KUL to AMS, as you can see it passes over Eastern Ukraine.

A lot of long haul flights fly, very high, over conflict zones. There are several areas of restricted or closed airspace but, mostly, the world is, properly, wide open and "high fliers" (30,000+ feet) are, generally thought to be safe. But the _Daily Mail_ is suggesting that Ukraine may close some of its airspace or, I suppose national administrations could order their flag carriers to avoid it - dding time and costs to flights.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

If other international carriers had already pulled their flights over the conflict zone and Malaysia did not, then there will be hell to pay. I doubt very much the insurance company is going to cough up on this one, claiming that Malaysia should have known that heavy AD was in use in the area and taken the appropriate steps. Either way no one is going to be flying that route for a bit.


----------



## KerryBlue

A few questions that arise from all the emerging media reports.

1. Who will investigate the crash site seeing how it is currently in the middle of a war zone and the site itself is currently controlled by rebels?
2. What happens if it is confirmed that the rebels shot down the plane? 
3. What happens if there is a proven link between the shoot down weapon and Russia?
4. If the rebels are responsible does Malaysia have any grounds to deploy there own military forces? (Is shooting down a sovereign civilian aircraft cause for war?).
5. What will the response of the world be to armed rebels shooting down a civi plane?


----------



## Old Sweat

I was surfing and hit Fox News Channel in time to hear a report that a Russian news source is reporting it was an attempt by Ukraine authorities to assassinate Putin whose aircraft was scheduled to fly the same corridor 15 to 20 minutes later. This may be an attempt to muddy the waters, or just an example of classic Russian paranoia or . . .


----------



## KerryBlue

Old Sweat said:
			
		

> I was surfing and hit Fox News Channel in time to hear a report that a Russian news source is reporting it was an attempt by Ukraine authorities to assassinate Putin whose aircraft was scheduled to fly the same corridor 15 to 20 minutes later. This may be an attempt to muddy the waters, or just an example of classic Russian paranoia or . . .



Seems totally plausible.... :


----------



## The Bread Guy

Old Sweat said:
			
		

> I was surfing and hit Fox News Channel in time to hear a report that a Russian news source is reporting it was an attempt by Ukraine authorities to assassinate Putin whose aircraft was scheduled to fly the same corridor 15 to 20 minutes later. This may be an attempt to muddy the waters, or just an example of classic Russian paranoia or . . .


In eastern Ukraine, separatists in Donetsk are quoted by Russian media saying _"I think it’s all crystal clear. The militia has only Manpads [portable air defense systems] and missile systems. Their fire range is only at 2-3 kilometers. So it was either Ukrainian aviation or anti-missile defense .... We deplore the actions of the Ukrainian military.”_  Guess they must have lost these in the past 3 weeks.

Meanwhile, _"Lufthansa, Transaero say diverting transit flights from Ukrainian airspace"_.


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> And this breakdown by a McGill political scientist, via Twitter, re:  how U.S. int may track this to see *if  it was, indeed, shot down*:
> 
> 
> 
> How might the US intelligence community determine who shot down #MH17, assuming it was shot down? (1/10)
> 
> SIGINT:  As @finriswolf notes, incidents like this often accompanied by panicked chatter among officials  “oops what did we just do” (2/10)
> 
> ELINT: Electronic emissions may ID SAMs in area and if launched, unlikely to tell from exactly where unless collection very proximate (3/10)
> 
> ELINT: There might also be some Ukrainian radar coverage of missile track, although unlikely. (4/10)
> 
> IMINT: Location of possible SAMs responsible via overhead imagery, although not 100% (collection gaps, weather, mobile systems) (5/10)
> 
> OSINT: Open source reports from media, social media, etc helpful in determining presence of possible SAM system (6/10)
> 
> OSINT: Also reported rebel claims of shoot-down (7/10)
> 
> PIR: Possible satellite detection of IR signature of weapons launch. Coverage and discrimination likely spotty though. (8/10)
> 
> HUMINT: Maybe someone inside knows something, although other technical means likely more useful in this case. (9/10)
> 
> In the end, it is is likely to be multiple overlapping sources all pointing in same direction. (10/10)
Click to expand...

Well, if the Wall St Journal int reporter is to be believed, THAT didn't take long:  _"U.S. intelligence confirms surface-to-air missile fired at Malaysian jet but are divided over origin."_

Meanwhile, airlines are learning pretty quick - not the absence of planes over E.Ukr:


----------



## Kirkhill

I wonder how Putin's health is holding up?

Shortly after Korean Airlines 007 was shot out of the sky in 1983 Andropov's health seemed to fail him completely.  A fairly common occurrence in the Kremlin.

Of course it could have been a Ukrainian launch.  But who benefits from diverting all civil traffic away from Ukraine?


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> Of course it could have been a Ukrainian launch.  But who benefits from diverting all civil traffic away from Ukraine?



Of course the question is why would the Ukrainian military be launching a high-altitude SAM? After all,  the rebels don't have any aircraft, let alone one flying at 30,000+ feet.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Initial media reports here (NLD media) and here (CBC) quoting NLD gov't indicate 1 Canadian on board MH17.


----------



## McG

KerryBlue said:
			
		

> Is shooting down a sovereign civilian aircraft cause for war?).


It was not a plane but RMS Lusitania may be precedent.


----------



## YZT580

Notice how all claims of downing an AN26 have vanished from the airwaves.  The time frame and location of the alleged military take-down are extremely close.  The question for me is how much control does Putin actually have over the rebel forces?  The first reports I heard were that there were 23 Americans and a half dozen french on board amongst other Europeans: unlisted as of now.  

Is the BUK system heat seeking and if so, I wonder if the heat signature of a B777 at Fl330 would deflect the tracking system from an AN26 at say 16000?  Whatever, it is a horrendous incident that could end up being the beginning of the end of the rebellion, I hope.


----------



## SupersonicMax

Radar guided, fairly lethal.


----------



## vonGarvin

YZT580 said:
			
		

> Whatever, it is a horrendous incident that could end up being the beginning of the end of the rebellion, I hope.


The rebellion started in Maidan and is now continuing.  It won't end with this.  This is just the beginning.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

KerryBlue said:
			
		

> A few questions that arise from all the emerging media reports.
> 
> 1. Who will investigate the crash site seeing how it is currently in the middle of a war zone and the site itself is currently controlled by rebels?
> 2. What happens if it is confirmed that the rebels shot down the plane?
> 3. What happens if there is a proven link between the shoot down weapon and Russia?
> 4. If the rebels are responsible does Malaysia have any grounds to deploy there own military forces? (Is shooting down a sovereign civilian aircraft cause for war?).
> 5. What will the response of the world be to armed rebels shooting down a civi plane?



Besides me thinking you have too much caffeine at times when you post, where exactly would Malaysia deploy their 'forces' and to do what exactly?


----------



## Journeyman

Eye In The Sky said:
			
		

> Besides me thinking you have too much caffeine at times when you post.....


   ;D


----------



## Retired AF Guy

SupersonicMax said:
			
		

> Radar guided, fairly lethal.



During the little dust-up between Georgia and Russia a few years back, the Georgians took out a Russian TU-22M Backfire using a SA-11. 

More info on the SA-11/17: http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-9K37-Buk.html


----------



## Cloud Cover

There are at least 4 different versions of Buk out there, with variations on missile type for each system. Following that, the Infra red and radar signatures of the TELAR systems are likely somewhat different for each operating country [more than a dozen countries have the system, not including Chinese and Iranian knock-offs].    

Right now, I guarantee you that there are a lot of skilled EW people in the US and UK searching databases for previously fingerprinted TELAR units, and matching that to the ELINT collected today as it becomes available, of which there is a probably a good amount given NATO's interest in the region over the past few months.

Without going further and crossing OPSEC, I have no doubt that the operating entity of the missile that was launched will be identified to a very high degree of probability, perhaps even certainty once all the C2 SIGINT is added to the matrix.


----------



## KerryBlue

Eye In The Sky said:
			
		

> where exactly would Malaysia deploy their 'forces' and to do what exactly?



No clue, I was discussing with my some friends and someone brought that question up.



			
				Eye In The Sky said:
			
		

> Besides me thinking you have too much caffeine at times when you post


Super slow day at the office and about 4-5 cups of and you hit the nail on the head


----------



## George Wallace

KerryBlue said:
			
		

> No clue, I was discussing with my some friends and someone brought that question up.



WOW!...I do think some of your friends should be doing some a lot of reading into current affairs.


----------



## George Wallace

whiskey601 said:
			
		

> There are at least 4 different versions of Buk out there, with variations on missile type for each system. Following that, the Infra red and radar signatures of the TELAR systems are likely somewhat different for each operating country [more than a dozen countries have the system, not including Chinese and Iranian knock-offs].
> 
> Right now, I guarantee you that there are a lot of skilled EW people in the US and UK searching databases for previously fingerprinted TELAR units, and matching that to the ELINT collected today as it becomes available, of which there is a probably a good amount given NATO's interest in the region over the past few months.
> 
> Without going further and crossing OPSEC, I have no doubt that the operating entity of the missile that was launched will be identified to a very high degree of probability, perhaps even certainty once all the C2 SIGINT is added to the matrix.



I am sure that the Americans manning the 'Missile Shield' in Turkey and Poland have a very good idea where the launch came from


----------



## George Wallace

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10974050/Malaysia-Airlines-plane-crashes-on-Ukraine-Russia-border-live.html




> The airline said the plane was carrying a total 298 people, including three infants - 283 passengers and 15 crew. It earlier said it had been carrying 295 people which did not account for the three young children.
> Netherlands   154
> Malaysia          43
> Australia          27
> Indonesia          2
> United Kingdom  9
> Germany           4
> Belgium             4
> Philippines          3
> Canada              1
> Unverified         41


----------



## a_majoor

Link to the NYT blog post on the subject. The post has lots of embedded video and imagery, so does not format well here, follow the link:

http://news.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/07/17/latest-updates-on-malaysia-airlines-plane-crash-in-ukraine/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0


----------



## Cloud Cover

George Wallace said:
			
		

> I am sure that the Americans manning the 'Missile Shield' in Turkey and Poland have a very good idea where the launch came from



The "where from" is definitely important, but the "who" and the "why" will also be gleaned.


----------



## midget-boyd91

whiskey601 said:
			
		

> The "where from" is definitely important, but the "who" and the "why" will also be gleaned.



Scenerio 1: Rebels got their hands on some Russian hardware, saw a great big juicy target pop up and fired assuming they were firing at another cargo/transport aircraft.

Scenerio 2: Russian air defense picks up an aircraft flying  over a warzone minutes away from entering their airspace and fires. 

Personally I'm leaning towards scenerio 1.


----------



## X Royal

uncle-midget-Oddball said:
			
		

> Scenerio 1: Rebels got their hands on some Russian hardware, saw a great big juicy target pop up and fired assuming they were firing at another cargo/transport aircraft.


Seems most-likely as the only radar info they would have would be from the missile system.



> Scenerio 2: Russian air defense picks up an aircraft flying  over a warzone minutes away from entering their airspace and fires.
> 
> Personally I'm leaning towards scenerio 1.


In scenario 2 Russian air defense would also have civilian air traffic information available to them.


----------



## OldSolduer

Not meant to derail, but I remember a young German lad evading the most advanced AD system in the world and landing his plane in or near Red Square.
I believe the head of the Soviet Union Air Defense was fired and so were a bunch of others. The message is "shoot first, ask questions later."

This could have been the same type of situation.


----------



## upandatom

KerryBlue said:
			
		

> A few questions that arise from all the emerging media reports.
> 
> 1. Who will investigate the crash site seeing how it is currently in the middle of a war zone and the site itself is currently controlled by rebels?
> 2. What happens if it is confirmed that the rebels shot down the plane?
> 3. What happens if there is a proven link between the shoot down weapon and Russia?
> 4. If the rebels are responsible does Malaysia have any grounds to deploy there own military forces? (Is shooting down a sovereign civilian aircraft cause for war?).
> 5. What will the response of the world be to armed rebels shooting down a civi plane?



1. Wont happen, The Russians wont allow a team in to Investigate if it was the AD that the rebels captured, they would continue to shell the area until there is no trace or it would be completely inconclusive. 
2. A stern talking to? Putin "condemning" the seps while giving them a "good game" on the bottom? 
3. Nadda- more sanctions? Not much more can go on besides an all out war. (more so then what is occuring now)
4. I wouldnt be so worried about Malaysia as this may have woken up the sleeping bear that is Fueled by war and their economy thrives off it, US and British citizens were on that plane. The one thing you can always rely on is American Patriotism and Fear. When their fellow countrymen die, needlessly, and in an instance such as this, they have a tendency to start blaring the battle horn.  
5. Probably a whole lot of eff all. Not much is being done about anything these days. ISIS, Ukraine, Africa, UN is utterly useless, people are up on warcrimes and not showing up to court even when the UN knows their location and whereabouts. 




			
				X Royal said:
			
		

> Seems most-likely as the only radar info they would have would be from the missile system.
> 
> In scenario 2 Russian air defense would also have civilian air traffic information available to them.



Agreed, Scenario one, most feasible, Russian Soldiers would know what is incoming civilian wise.


----------



## George Wallace

upandatom said:
			
		

> 1. Wont happen, The Russians wont allow a team in to Investigate if it was the AD that the rebels captured, they would continue to shell the area until there is no trace or it would be completely inconclusive.



Investigators are already on the ground, although being hampered in their efforts by belligerents.



			
				upandatom said:
			
		

> 2. A stern talking to? Putin "condemning" the seps while giving them a "good game" on the bottom?



You are implicating Russia, when there is currently NO proof.



			
				upandatom said:
			
		

> 3. Nadda- more sanctions? Not much more can go on besides an all out war. (more so then what is occuring now)





			
				upandatom said:
			
		

> 4. I wouldnt be so worried about Malaysia as this may have woken up the sleeping bear that is Fueled by war and their economy thrives off it, US and British citizens were on that plane. The one thing you can always rely on is American Patriotism and Fear. When their fellow countrymen die, needlessly, and in an instance such as this, they have a tendency to start blaring the battle horn.



Just as speculative and informed as KerryBlue's comments.  



			
				upandatom said:
			
		

> 5. Probably a whole lot of eff all. Not much is being done about anything these days. ISIS, Ukraine, Africa, UN is utterly useless, people are up on warcrimes and not showing up to court even when the UN knows their location and whereabouts.





			
				upandatom said:
			
		

> Agreed, Scenario one, most feasible, Russian Soldiers would know what is incoming civilian wise.



NATO has enough surveillance of the region to have a very good idea of what is going on.   To reiterate what was posted about the 'Missile Shield':

http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/18/world/europe/ukraine-malaysia-airlines-crash/index.html?hpt=wo_c2



> *Radar system provides details*
> 
> The United States has concluded that a missile shot down the plane but has not placed any blame, a senior U.S. official said.
> 
> A radar system saw a surface-to-air missile system turn on and track an aircraft right before the plane went down, the senior U.S. official said. A second system saw a heat signature at the time the airliner was hit, the official said. The United States is analyzing the trajectory of the missile to try to learn where the attack came from, the official said.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from _Foreign Affairs_ is an overview:

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141645/alexander-j-motyl/war-comes-to-ukraine


> War Comes to Ukraine
> *The Consequences of the Crash in Donetsk*
> 
> By Alexander J. Motyl
> 
> JULY 17, 2014
> 
> Yesterday afternoon, by most accounts, pro-Russian separatists shot down Malaysia Airlines flight 17 over eastern Ukraine. The attackers ostensibly thought that the Boeing 777 was a Ukrainian plane about to enter Russian airspace. Soon after the attack, Igor Girkin, the self-styled commander of the Donetsk People’s Army, bragged on his website that “We just shot down an AN-26 plane near Torez; it’s scattered somewhere around the Progress mine. We warned them not to fly in ‘our sky’.” Soon after, RIA Novosti, a Russian news agency, seconded Girkin’s claim.
> 
> After it became apparent that the plane was not Ukrainian, Girkin erased his post and Aleksandr Borodai, the prime minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, tried to put the blame for the attack, which killed 295, on Ukrainian authorities. Later in the day, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that it was “unquestionable that the state over whose territory this took place is responsible for this terrible tragedy.”
> 
> The atrocity comes three days after Russian militants shot down a Ukrainian transport plane flying over Krasnodon district in Luhansk province and one day after a missile -- which Ukrainian authorities believe was fired by Russia -- brought down a Ukrainian SU-25 jet over Donetsk province.
> 
> This week also saw a major escalation of Russian military involvement in Ukraine; in the early morning hours of Sunday, July 13, about 100 Russian armored personnel carriers and other vehicles crossed from Russia into Luhansk province in Ukraine. Unlike earlier Russian deployments into Crimea and eastern Ukraine, these carriers were openly adorned with Russian insignia and flags. The flow of Russian tanks and soldiers into the area has since continued, and Ukrainian authorities estimate that up to 400 additional “little green men” (a term coined during the Crimea invasion for Russian troops without insignia) have infiltrated into eastern Ukraine’s Donbas.
> 
> Until yesterday, that escalation had gone relatively unremarked in Western media. But now, no matter who fired the missile, things are set to change. The downing of a civilian plane may conceivably qualify as a war crime, inasmuch as it entailed the unwarranted militarily destruction of a civilian target. At any rate, it was certainly an atrocity and an act of terrorism. And if Girkin -- an ethnic Russian who hails from Russia and who, by some accounts, is still an officer in the Russian military intelligence service, which would make him officially subordinate to Russia’s president -- really was involved, Putin might arguably be politically responsible for the crime.
> 
> Politically and economically, that couldn’t be worse news for Putin, who launched a charm offensive just last week at the World Cup in Rio de Janeiro. Putin, worried about the Ukrainian army’s rapid advances on insurgent positions, met with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and convinced her to agree to negotiations with the insurgents. His efforts -- presumably deemed insincere by Washington -- collapsed on Wednesday when the Obama administration imposed new financial sanctions on several important Russian banking and energy institutions, including Gazprombank, Novatek (an independent natural gas producer), the Rosneft Oil Company, and the VEB Bank for Development and Foreign Economic Affairs. Hours later, the Russian stock market took a nosedive and the ruble fell.
> 
> Putin might have managed to muddle along. Although most of the West has been deeply critical of Russia and its support for separatist groups in eastern Ukraine, European and American policymakers have been hesitant to impose the most severe sanctions and have seemed ready to move on to other foreign policy issues, such as Iraq and the war between Israel and Hamas. Even the Obama administration’s recent round of sanctions was not as far-reaching as many critics of the president would have liked.
> 
> But the Malaysia Airlines crash will force both the United States and Europe to come to terms with unpleasant realities. First, Russia has effectively embarked on a war against Ukraine. Kiev is no longer fighting homegrown insurgents and separatists; it is fighting Russian soldiers and Russian military equipment under Russian military command. War, unthinkable in Europe for so long, has truly come to the continent. Second, Russia also apparently believes that Donbas, the region over which the Malaysian flight was travelling, is Russian territory and that terror is a perfectly justified means for keeping control of it. As a new Amnesty International report has made clear, Russian forces have systematically engaged in human rights abuses against civilians in the eastern Ukrainian regions they rule.
> 
> In a word, even before yesterday, Donbas was well on its way to becoming Ukraine’s Bosnia -- with Putin playing the part of Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic, Russia playing the part of Serbia, and Putin’s Donbas supporters playing the part of Bosnian Serb irregulars. Once Bosnia became a killing field, Europe and the United States could no longer turn a blind eye. NATO forces intervened in September 1995 with Operation Deliberate Force; two months later, the war ended with the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement.
> 
> A direct Western military intervention in Ukraine remains unlikely. But other military assistance has now become possible for the simple reason that, if it did down the plane, Russia has already crossed the very red line that Washington had feared a more robust response in Ukraine would lead it to transgress. The United States, for its part, has ample military equipment in Iraq and Afghanistan, which could easily be diverted to Ukraine.
> 
> This week’s tragedy could remove any last shred of hope that Putin could be a valuable interlocutor in the Ukraine crisis. It is not impossible that he will realize that continued war with Ukraine is a lose-lose proposition and decide to use the crash as an opportunity to reinvent himself as a peacemaker who can pressure the separatists in Ukraine, hammer out some deal with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, and declare victory. That doesn’t seem likely. But if he doesn’t, Russia’s cold war with the West could warm up considerably.




Two key points:

     "First, Russia has effectively embarked on a war against Ukraine. Kiev is no longer fighting homegrown insurgents and separatists; it is fighting Russian soldiers and Russian military equipment under Russian military command. War,
      unthinkable in Europe for so long, has truly come to the continent."

     "Second, Russia also apparently believes that Donbas, the region over which the Malaysian flight was travelling, is Russian territory and that terror is a perfectly justified means for keeping control of it."

This whole thing started, in my _opinion_, because the EU didn't really want Ukraine ... it made an offer, a very niggardly one, because Germany, especially, didn't need another "weak sister" in the community. But many Ukrainians thought a bad deal with the EU was preferable to a better (still not good) deal with Russia.

But the real problem wasn't the EU, it was, and still is Russia. Putin inserted Russia into Ukraine's internal affairs and lit the flame of _separatism_; then he fanned the flames and now the fire is burning out of control.

I oppose Western military action ... for now.

But it is time to turn the real screws on to Russia.

First, Germany *must* lead. Step one; say, clearly, directly, we (Europe) *will* wean ourselves off Russian oil and gas, and then take concrete steps to start that process.

Second, London and Wall Street have to turn on the big screws. The Russian economy is a ramshackle mess - like Russia, itself - and it can be brought to its knees with relatively little (but some, measurable) pain to Western business. China will not bail out Russia, it will pick over the carcass, a bit, for its own advantage.


----------



## vonGarvin

uncle-midget-Oddball said:
			
		

> Scenerio 2: Russian air defense picks up an aircraft flying  over a warzone minutes away from entering their airspace and fires.


Scenerio (sic) 2 is impossible.  The aircraft was shot down/crashed/came down out of range of the Ukrainian/Russian border for the 9K37 Бук("Beech", or as we call them, the SA-11 Gadfly/SA-17 Grizzly), and as for the C-400 Триумф ("S-400 Triumph", aka "SA-21 Growler"), the closest battalions are in Novorossisk, well out of range.


----------



## vonGarvin

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> This whole thing started, in my _opinion_, because the EU didn't really want Ukraine ... it made an offer, a very niggardly one, because Germany, especially, didn't need another "weak sister" in the community. But many Ukrainians thought a bad deal with the EU was preferable to a better (still not good) deal with Russia.
> 
> But the real problem wasn't the EU, it was, and still is Russia. Putin inserted Russia into Ukraine's internal affairs and lit the flame of _separatism_; then he fanned the flames and now the fire is burning out of control.


I disagree about the source of the problem.  It *includes* Russia, but also includes (to a greater degree, in my opinion)the EU and especially the US.  They saw those protests against an economic agreement by a democratically elected government as a fight against tyranny.  The propaganda war included the very attractive "Maidan Maiden" (as I call her) who used clever speech to talk about the human rights tragedy in Kiev.  The flames of separatism were fanned not by Putin, but by Kiev and Maidan itself.  When the western Ukrainians stormed the Bastille and tossed aside the legitimate government (which had as its base of support in the East), those ethnic Russians in the south and the east were legitimately scared for their well being.  Crimea was a no brainer to go back home to Russia.  Donbas?  Not so much.  (And of course, Putin's fleet is in Sevastapol and Simferopol, so that only helped....)


			
				E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> I oppose Western military action ... for now.


I oppose Western military action.  Period.


			
				E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> But it is time to turn the real screws on to Russia.


Disagree.  Time to toss Ukraine aside and let it flounder on its own.  It's as much of a mess as any other despot nation.  When it gets cold in December, they'll supplicate to Russia, and the problem goes away.


			
				E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> First, Germany *must* lead. Step one; say, clearly, directly, we (Europe) *will* wean ourselves off Russian oil and gas, and then take concrete steps to start that process.
> 
> Second, London and Wall Street have to turn on the big screws. The Russian economy is a ramshackle mess - like Russia, itself - and it can be brought to its knees with relatively little (but some, measurable) pain to Western business. China will not bail out Russia, it will pick over the carcass, a bit, for its own advantage.


Germans leading opposition to Russia never turns out well 




(/sarcasm)

But in all seriousness, if Germany wants, they have the power to do this.  I'm not so certain that the Russian economy is any worse off than e.g. Ontario or any other Western Nation.  At least their debt to GDP ratio is a slight fraction of ours. 

(I'm secretly waiting for our own society to collapse long before Russia's does....)


----------



## upandatom

GW- By no means did I intend that I had proof, or there was. Putin has been captured several times stating/implying his intent to restore "Mother Russia" to its all powerful glory. Not being speculative there. 

I also believe that hundreds of Soldiers in uniform and armored vehicles, wearing RU insignia or not is considered proof. What are they considered then? Not wearing the RU flag, do they become Insurgents? Terrorists? 

NATO has enough surveillance for sure, but do they have the current ability,and stregnth to step in and do something. I severely doubt the Canada will volunteer Combat or even Observers to a NATO mission so short after Aghanistan. Under the current budget constraints I dont see this being plausible. 

Much of NATOs members participation has been lacking at best. With the exception of a few major players, some countries need to step it up and start being key members. 

I do Agree that EU needs to back off the Russian Oil, it has caused a you need us mentality and yes russian economy will always be frail for years to come. Money is Money, Oil is Oil its needed to make the world go round.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some of the latest from Federalist leader Strelkov, via Russian media (in Russian):  early reports from his people suggest some of the people found in the debris of yesterday's MH17 crash may have been dead for days - more (again in Russian) here.


----------



## George Wallace

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Some of the latest from Federalist leader Strelkov, via Russian media (in Russian):  early reports from his people suggest some of the people found in the debris of yesterday's MH17 crash may have been dead for days - more (again in Russian) here.



 :  Even the Russian Federation has its 'Conspiracy Theorists'.

(Igor Strelkov is a Russian footballer.)


----------



## The Bread Guy

George Wallace said:
			
		

> (Igor Strelkov is a Russian footballer.)


This is the OTHER "Strelkov" (in this case, it's his nom de guerre).



			
				George Wallace said:
			
		

> :  Even the Russian Federation has its 'Conspiracy Theorists'.


"Da, we LOVE National Enquirer!"


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Well Murphy's law says it's quite possible it crashed into an area full of fighting and dead soldiers/rebels/little green men or even where a war crime against civilians took place.


I won't be flying Malaysian Air anytime soon that's for sure.


----------



## KerryBlue

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> This is the OTHER "Strelkov" (in this case, it's his nom de guerre).
> "Da, we LOVE National Enquirer!"



Strelkov loosely translates to Shooter in Russian, he is known as Igor the Shooter essentially.


----------



## George Wallace

Colin P said:
			
		

> Well Murphy's law says it's quite possible it crashed into an area full of fighting and dead soldiers/rebels/little green men or even where a war crime against civilians took place.



Nothing is impossible.  Wonder if you put that theory forward to them, what their response would be?


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Meanwhile those sneaky Canadians 


http://english.pravda.ru/news/world/16-07-2014/128061-canada_fighter_aircraft_ukraine-0/#.U8k0ayjJ2So

The Ukrainian combat aviation received reinforcements from Canada. The Canadian government proposes to deliver nearly 20 combat aircraft CF-18A to the Ukrainian military.

The information appeared on social networks. Russian English-language television channel Russia Today reported the same.

These 20 aircraft can be delivered to the Ukrainian side for free, as they had been written off from service at the Air Forces of Canada in connection with the purchase of new aircraft. In addition, Canada offers to send a dozen experts to Ukraine to train Ukrainian pilots and perform aircraft maintenance, the Press of Ukraine reports.

McDonnell Douglas CF-18 Hornet is a multirole fighter of the Royal Canadian Air Force, developed on the basis of US fighter bomber F/A-18 Hornet. The plane was produced by McDonnell Douglas in 1982-88 years; 138 aircraft had been produced in total. The aircraft had taken part in combat operations during the Gulf War, the bombing of Yugoslavia and the international military operation in Libya.

The Canadian Air Force had lost the total of 18 CF-18 Hornet during operation, although there were no combat losses incurred.


----------



## George Wallace

Colin P said:
			
		

> Meanwhile those sneaky Canadians
> 
> 
> http://english.pravda.ru/news/world/16-07-2014/128061-canada_fighter_aircraft_ukraine-0/#.U8k0ayjJ2So
> 
> The Ukrainian combat aviation received reinforcements from Canada. The Canadian government proposes to deliver nearly 20 combat aircraft CF-18A to the Ukrainian military.
> 
> The information appeared on social networks. Russian English-language television channel Russia Today reported the same.
> 
> These 20 aircraft can be delivered to the Ukrainian side for free, as they had been written off from service at the Air Forces of Canada in connection with the purchase of new aircraft. In addition, Canada offers to send a dozen experts to Ukraine to train Ukrainian pilots and perform aircraft maintenance, the Press of Ukraine reports.
> 
> McDonnell Douglas CF-18 Hornet is a multirole fighter of the Royal Canadian Air Force, developed on the basis of US fighter bomber F/A-18 Hornet. The plane was produced by McDonnell Douglas in 1982-88 years; 138 aircraft had been produced in total. The aircraft had taken part in combat operations during the Gulf War, the bombing of Yugoslavia and the international military operation in Libya.
> 
> The Canadian Air Force had lost the total of 18 CF-18 Hornet during operation, although there were no combat losses incurred.



Will never happen.  Such an action would have serious diplomatic implications with Canada's relations with the United States and would have serious consequences on all our military purchases.

CTAT is part of the ITAR and would totally alienate Canada from the US and Five Eyes community.  

Have a look at the Controlled Goods Program.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Don't worry George I have no doubt Pravada is pining for the good old days and smoking some crack at the same time.


----------



## Kirkhill

And speaking of smoking crack - I thought I would indulge myself and inflict another half-baked theory on you.







Looking at this map from the Economist, posted by ERC on May 01, I see Russia being reduced to the territory it held in prior to Ivan, Peter and Katherine, when it was an isolated fur trading post called Muscovy.  The Han, Rus (or perhaps it is more exact to say the Slavs) and Parthians are still fighting to control the Turks who are in fitful sympathy with their Mohameddan brethren the Arabs.

Ukraine, Kiev in particular, became a major centre as it connected the Turkic controlled Silk Road to the Viking controlled Baltic - making both the Vikings and the Khazars very rich.

Russia claims the salient to the east of Ukraine, the Caucasus. But I feel it is more exact to describe it as Debatable Lands.

Vladimir does not hold the Caucasus.  That has already reverted to Khaganates.  I believe he can't, personally, professionally or politically, face the prospect of having a successful, wealthy Ukraine (ie up to the standards of Poland and the Balts) on the border of a Russia that is failing on his watch.  Bad things happen to people that upset the Boyars (Oligarchs in their original form) in Russia.  If he lost his Streltsy (Praetorian Guard) as well he would not be long for this world.  Every downgrade in the ruble, I believe, means another unhappy Boyar.

Vlad's best game is to reduce Ukraine to the same state as the Caucasus - an ungovernable Debatable Land of Khaganates.   That would preclude trade (oil and gas) between the Turks and Europe via Ukraine and push Europe to buy from the "safe, secure and reliable" supplier that Russia is known to be.  (Delusions are everywhere).

Vlad is making common cause with the Han and the Persians to establish the environment on the steppes.  The Han have their own Debatable Lands, Xinjiang of the Mohammedan Turks and Tibet.

The Persians are trying to reclaim lands from the Turks on both their eastern borders, Afghanistan and Baluchistan, and their western borders Syria and Lebanon.

In the west the Persians are also bumping into the Arabs who occasionally ally with, but cordially detest, the Turks.    There are also remnants of peoples that have never accepted the Persians in their neighbourhood: Assyrians, Phoenicians, Mitanni, Hittites, Kurds, Armenians.......

We know that these people have been beating each other up since at least 3500 BC.  In all that time nothing like order has ever lasted more than the lifetime of a very few notables, often with very nasty temperaments, and over limited geographic areas.

Generally I am inclined to believe that the source of problems lies with those that refuse to accommodate chaos and demand that "ordnung muss sein".

But Vlad is playing the spoiler - I believe that he is not working to impose order - I don't believe he has the capabilities to do that.  He is playing to reduce everybody else to his level.  This is in keeping with his KGB training and its efforts to support anybody that would create problems for any sitting governments deemed to be enemies.

He can't mount a conventional military assault of more than a Brigade, perhaps a Division, without seriously weakening himself elsewhere.  The excursion into Luhansk is probably as much of an effort as is possible.  The fact that he is mounting it at all is probably out of embarrassment - he has been embarrassed by the "rebels" who he sent into Ukraine and has failed to support even as they fail to meet their objectives.

So.... Vlad, under pressure, limited courses of action, embarrassed.....highly volatile. 

He needs to be gently and firmly faced down until such time as the Boyars take care of him.  

We need to continue the military exercises on NATO territory, support Ukraine economically and with military aid - while not setting foot inside their borders - and continue to squeeze the Boyars.













*


----------



## Edward Campbell

General Disorder said:
			
		

> I disagree about the source of the problem.  It *includes* Russia, but also includes (to a greater degree, in my opinion)the EU and especially the US.  They saw those protests against an economic agreement by a democratically elected government as a fight against tyranny.  The propaganda war included the very attractive "Maidan Maiden" (as I call her) who used clever speech to talk about the human rights tragedy in Kiev.  The flames of separatism were fanned not by Putin, but by Kiev and Maidan itself.  When the western Ukrainians stormed the Bastille and tossed aside the legitimate government (which had as its base of support in the East), those ethnic Russians in the south and the east were legitimately scared for their well being.  Crimea was a no brainer to go back home to Russia.  Donbas?  Not so much.  (And of course, Putin's fleet is in Sevastapol and Simferopol, so that only helped....)
> 
> I oppose Western military action.  Period.
> 
> Disagree.  Time to toss Ukraine aside and let it flounder on its own.  It's as much of a mess as any other despot nation.  When it gets cold in December, they'll supplicate to Russia, and the problem goes away.Germans leading opposition to Russia never turns out well ...
> (/sarcasm)
> 
> But in all seriousness, if Germany wants, they have the power to do this.  I'm not so certain that the Russian economy is any worse off than e.g. Ontario or any other Western Nation.  At least their debt to GDP ratio is a slight fraction of ours.
> 
> (I'm secretly waiting for our own society to collapse long before Russia's does....)




I think, that there are sound _strategic_ reasons for beating up (economically) on Russia, right now. And, I think Russia is vulnerable. (I don't believe any of Russia's official numbers. I don't believe China's, either, but the difference is that I am about 99% sure that there is a set of *real* books in Beijing, which the _leadership_ understands; I think everyone in Russia lies to everyone else and no one knows everyone is afraid to ask the real questions.) I think this is a time when we and China have coincidental interests in seeing Russia _reduced_. Might Russia lash out, militarily? Yes. Would that be an easy problem to solve? No, not really easy, but, inevitably, we would win, and win big in any military contest, and Putin and his generals know that ... plus, of course, there are "hordes of screaming Chinamen" on his other flank.

As to Ukraine, I'm not going to disagree with you on either fault (even if it's not Putin's fault this is still an opportune time to kick him, hard, in the economic nuts) or fate (yes, indeed, leave 'em to stew in their own Slavic juices).


----------



## The Bread Guy

Wanted:  Russia Today correspondent in U.K. ....


> A London-based correspondent of Kremlin-funded news channel Russia Today has resigned in protest at its coverage of the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17.
> 
> Sara Firth, who worked at Russia Today for five years, described the channel’s reporting of the crash in which 298 people were killed, including a former BBC journalist, as the “straw that broke the camel’s back”.
> 
> Russia Today, which has been criticised as a propaganda mouthpiece for the Russian government, suggested Ukraine was to blame for the crash, while most media organisations have said it was shot down by a suspected Russian-made missile.
> 
> “It was the most shockingly obvious misinformation and it got to the point where I couldn’t defend it any more,” Firth told the Guardian.
> 
> “When this story broke that was the moment I knew I had to go. I walked into the newsroom and there was an eyewitness account making allegations [against Ukraine] and analysis, if you can call it, from our correspondent in the studio.
> 
> “It was just appalling, in a situation like that where there are families waiting to be informed and a devastating loss of life.”
> 
> She added: “I have always fought against this argument that RT is an evil network but you wake up and think, that’s just wrong.
> 
> “It was not an easy decision, I started my career at RT, and I respect many of the team there. In the end it got to the point where I couldn’t defend it and I didn’t believe there was something to defend. A story like this really highlights it.” ....


----------



## Kirkhill

George Wallace said:
			
		

> Will never happen.  Such an action would have serious diplomatic implications with Canada's relations with the United States and would have serious consequences on all our military purchases.
> 
> CTAT is part of the ITAR and would totally alienate Canada from the US and Five Eyes community.
> 
> Have a look at the Controlled Goods Program.



Here's another thought:

Where are the CF-18s out of Romania flying?  I  doubt they are flying over Ukraine.  But what happens if they are flying over the Black Sea?

Is Putin setting the stage for knocking a CF-18 out of the sky (he has now demonstrated capability and intent) and claiming he thought it was being flown by Ukrainians?

Message from Vlad to PM Harper: "Regret the downing of your aircraft and the loss of the pilot - bad intelligence.  We all know how hard it can be to get good information."  Kind of along the lines of "Really nice kids you have there.  It would be a shame to see an accident happen."


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> Here's another thought:
> 
> Where are the CF-18s out of Romania flying?  I  doubt they are flying over Ukraine.


Based in Lithuania and flying o'er the Baltics these days now that they've left Romania.



			
				Kirkhill said:
			
		

> But what happens if they are flying over the Black Sea?
> 
> Is Putin setting the stage for knocking a CF-18 out of the sky (he has now demonstrated capability and intent) and claiming he thought it was being flown by Ukrainians?
> 
> Message from Vlad to PM Harper: "Regret the downing of your aircraft and the loss of the pilot - bad intelligence.  We all know how hard it can be to get good information."  Kind of along the lines of "Really nice kids you have there.  It would be a shame to see an accident happen."


Fair bit o' geography between the Baltics (X in attached map) and the Black Sea (Y), so I'm guessing that's not likely to happen at this point.

Then again, I'd never have guessed someone would suggest a crashed airliner flying from Holland to Malaysia was full of already-dead people, so anything's possible in this Wonderland.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Canadian confirmed dead ....


> A 24-year-old Ontario medical student was among the 298 people killed when a Malaysia Airlines plane was downed over Ukraine, his family said Friday.
> 
> Andrei Anghel was studying in Romania but was travelling to Bali on that flight for a vacation, his father Sorin Anghel said.
> 
> “We got the information that the flight was shot down and we knew that he took that flight so we just assumed. Later we got the confirmation, from actually Durham police came here and they gave us the official,” Anghel said, trailing off.
> 
> Anghel was attending Iuliu Hatieganu University of Medicine and Pharmacy in Cluj-Napoca, which is Romania’s second-largest city ....


----------



## Kirkhill

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Based in Lithuania and flying o'er the Baltics these days now that they've left Romania.
> Fair bit o' geography between the Baltics (X in attached map) and the Black Sea (Y), so I'm guessing that's not likely to happen at this point.
> 
> Then again, I'd never have guessed someone would suggest a crashed airliner flying from Holland to Malaysia was full of already-dead people, so anything's possible in this Wonderland.



Much appreciate the correction Toni.

Back to my can of brew.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> Back to my can of brew.


Hope you're having a nice summer day to enjoy it!


----------



## McG

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Fair bit o' geography between the Baltics (X in attached map) and the Black Sea (Y), so I'm guessing that's not likely to happen at this point.


Russia has Baltic real estate on a plot of land that used to be the eastern most parts of Prussia ... But I wouldn't use that to support any theory that they are/will be gunning for a Canadian Fighter.





			
				General Disorder said:
			
		

> Scenerio (sic) 2 [that Russia shot the airline] is impossible.  The aircraft was shot down/crashed/came down out of range of the Ukrainian/Russian border for the 9K37 Бук("Beech", or as we call them, the SA-11 Gadfly/SA-17 Grizzly), and as for the C-400 Триумф ("S-400 Triumph", aka "SA-21 Growler"), the closest battalions are in Novorossisk, well out of range.


Is it impossible?  Maps seem to show it going down near Luhansk, and the Russian Army had already pushed into Luhansk.  Their reach is not necessarily constrained back to the boarder region.  That being said, I think it is improbable that the Russians fired the missile(s).


----------



## McG

Not the classiest of news sources, but some are suggesting that the launch vehicle has been whisked out of country.


----------



## George Wallace

MCG said:
			
		

> Not the classiest of news sources, but some are suggesting that the launch vehicle has been whisked out of country.



So?  Now captured Ukrainian military assets are being removed from the country?


----------



## McG

I don't think the article has a convincing "so what" ... But there are a few entertaining pictures.


----------



## George Wallace

All the reporting from the region is so out to lunch, none of it can really be accepted with much credibility and accuracy.


----------



## Edward Campbell

This sums it all up ...





Source: http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/

Edited to add: The cartoon is from _The Times_ (London)


----------



## vonGarvin

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> This sums it all up ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Source: http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/
> 
> Edited to add: The cartoon is from _The Times_ (London)



This cartoon is typical of the finger pointing out of a knee jerk reaction from the West.  Putin had bugger all to do with the downing of that plane.  So many factors involved, and this tragedy is all to reminiscent of the unintentional downing of the Iranian jet liner in the late 1980s.  Mistakes happen, and people ought to be held accountable, but that jet ought not to have been there as well.  I'm fairly confident in saying that even the hardest of rebels wanted to bring down a civilian jet liner.  And this is the last thing Putin wanted.

If anything, this may see him press his thumb down on these guys even more.  That or cut them off completely.


----------



## SeaKingTacco

Putin, the GRU, and the rebels certainly did not want to intentionally shot down an airliner.

And yet, one was shot down. After the Russians (pretty cynically) flooded the area with weapons, money, technical advisors and encouragement, to meet their own political and strategic goals.

It is not enough to say that the airliner should not been there. Professional military forces make sure that they (or their proxies) do not shoot civilian targets.  I am afraid that the Russians are, at least somewhat culpable for what has happened.  

So what now?  I don't know, but these things do have a way of taking on a life of their own.  I would give Russia a wide berth, internationally, in trade and diplomacy.


----------



## Edward Campbell

I'm not interested, actually, in who did what to whom or why. I reiterate: this is a very good excuse to put the economic boots to Russia and there is, in my _opinion_ a good, sound _strategic_ reason to want to weaken Russia.

Russia, as currently structured (since the 18th century), is too big, too powerful, and, potentially, too rich to be a "good neighbour" to Europe. I don't think Germany's dream of a cohesive, German dominated _Mitteleuropa_ can exist with Russia as a baleful, hostile force on its borders. (I also think a German dominated _Mitteleuropa_ is essential for the economic security of all of Europe.) Now would be a good time to use economic and diplomatic tools to destabilize Russia ... most of the actions I would anticipate are broadly legal (albeit not always _fair_), and the ones that aren't would work because Russia has no support in e.g. the WTO.

I would not care what happens to Far Eastern Russia, but I guess that if the US led West took strong economic action against Russia its control over its Far Eastern regions would weaken more and more and embolden Siberian (Asian) _separatists_.

It (attacking Russia economically) is a win-win-win, I think, for the US, Europe and China.


----------



## Kirkhill

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> I'm not interested, actually, in who did what to whom or why. I reiterate: this is a very good excuse to put the economic boots to Russia and there is, in my _opinion_ a good, sound _strategic_ reason to want to weaken Russia.
> 
> Russia, as currently structured (since the 18th century), is too big, too powerful, and, potentially, too rich to be a "good neighbour" to Europe. I don't think Germany's dream of a cohesive, German dominated _Mitteleuropa_ can exist with Russia as a baleful, hostile force on its borders. (I also think a German dominated _Mitteleuropa_ is essential for the economic security of all of Europe.) Now would be a good time to use economic and diplomatic tools to destabilize Russia ... most of the actions I would anticipate are broadly legal (albeit not always _fair_), and the ones that aren't would work because Russia has no support in e.g. the WTO.
> 
> I would not care what happens to Far Eastern Russia, but I guess that if the US led West took strong economic action against Russia its control over its Far Eastern regions would weaken more and more and embolden Siberian (Asian) _separatists_.
> 
> It (attacking Russia economically) is a win-win-win, I think, for the US, Europe and China.




 :goodpost:  As usual ERC.


----------



## FJAG

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> I'm not interested, actually, in who did what to whom or why. I reiterate: this is a very good excuse to put the economic boots to Russia and there is, in my _opinion_ a good, sound _strategic_ reason to want to weaken Russia.
> 
> . . .
> 
> It (attacking Russia economically) is a win-win-win, I think, for the US, Europe and China.



"Putting the economic boots" to Russia isn't all that simple. Currently Europe imports in excess of thirty percent of its oil and around forty percent of its natural gas from Russia. The percentages vary widely from one European country to another. Russia does need the foreign capital but Putin using a "get tough" stance could undoubtedly survive an economic war with Europe much better than Europe's democratically elected leaders. Europe is entirely to fragmented to be able to offer a good united front to Russia and several former eastern block countries (like the Baltic states) have internal Russian populations that could trigger the same situation currently shaking the Ukraine. Putin's Russia under serious economic attack would feel it had little to lose by spreading further chaos on Europe's fringes. 

I don't think Europe sees this as a win-win-win. They don't have the political will to carry it out. I think in Europe's eyes they are trying to cobble together a Munich Pact which will not carry the stigma of the original.

Finally, one should care who's at fault here and I have very little doubt that it's Putin. The actions in the Ukraine very much mirror those of Georgia and Chechnya; proxies being unleashed under FSB management and support. Putin has set this whole program into motion (with massive Russian approval) and under every tenant of legal command responsibility is liable for the criminal or negligent actions of his minions. 

For those who follow history, the whole "Putin Doctrine" right now reminds me of Hitler's "Lebensraum" programs and their focus on uniting the "Volksdeutsche" in Alsace, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Austria and beyond under one regime. Unfortunately we all know where that ended up.

 :Tin-Foil-Hat:

 :cheers:


----------



## Edward Campbell

Those are four good points FJAG, and I'm certainly not minimizing either the risks inherent in or difficulty of accomplishing what I suggest ... I just think it is a 'happy' coincidence of motive and opportunity, as they say on the TV shows.


----------



## FJAG

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Those are four good points FJAG, and I'm certainly not minimizing either the risks inherent in or difficulty of accomplishing what I suggest ... I just think it is a 'happy' coincidence of motive and opportunity, as they say on the TV shows.



There was one more point I forgot to put down.

Within the Russian leadership and bureaucracy they will definitely have known what happened and why. I wonder if the latter part of the Ukraine campaign and the MH17 incident in particular will have greatly undermined Putin's position with his peers. The whole thing smacks of incompetence and negligence (and maybe hubris). He may have lost a considerable amount of internal credibility and status. 

Interesting times we live in.

 :cheers:


----------



## The Bread Guy

Interesting discussion ....


			
				FJAG said:
			
		

> .... I wonder if the latter part of the Ukraine campaign and the MH17 incident in particular will have greatly undermined Putin's position with his peers ....


I hear variations on this theme here and there (especially with respect to the affects of sanctions), but the pessimist in me thinks someone as seemingly cut-throat as Putin will always ensure Putin stays around, no?  Or are there real chinks in the armour there?


----------



## Kirkhill

Putin isn't Stalin - he doesn't have a few million corpses in his wake to demonstrate his credentials.  The fate of Gorbachev and Yeltsin is still pretty fresh in Russia.

His oligarchs are a whole lot better supported than Stalin's, or even Gorbachev's opponents.

In any event, short of dropping a PGM on his Harley one Friday night, it is the only real hope of cutting his reign short.


----------



## YZT580

He was head of the KGB, there are bodies.  He is just more selective.  As for having commercial traffic overhead a war zone, if, as they claimed, the terrorists didn't have any high altitude missiles, there should never have been a problem.  In fact, traffic overhead was normal up until this point in time.  

There are numerous airways that overfly military zones that are used for artillery and other middle to low altitude weapons.  We have them here in Canada.  As a pilot one learns to be very cognizant of the location of those areas marked CYR.  

 I believe the guy when he said on the internet that he had just downed an AN26.  We told them to stay out of our airspace.  He said it, no one else so any retractions or denials are just a little short on believability.  Sadly for the 295 absolutely nothing will end up happening.  Mistakes happen in the fog of war and all that stuff.


----------



## brihard

I've read some interesting hypothesizing about increased Ukraininan involvement with NATO, and increased Western support of Moldova against similar separatists as a result of this gong show. Sure as hell the west will make this sting for Russia. It's just a matter of how, when, and where. We'll never get much of the story, but the players will know.


----------



## a_majoor

Canada and the US can put the boots to Russia and help our NATO allies by shipping oil to Europe as a means of supplanting unreliable Russian oil. Indeed, even by simply pumping the stuff as fast as possible from the Bakken fields, US shale oil formations and our own oil sands for domestic consumption we could collapse the price of oil and put a big dent not only in Putin's piggy bank, but a few other ones with plenty of cash funding projects (like ISIS or propping up Assad and Hezbollah) that are not in *our* best interests.

The US has finally woken up to this and is demonstrating some positive action by opening up Atlantic off shore sites for exploration and development. I think the Administration will finally allow exploration and drilling on Federal lands that has been blocked (by the Administration) up to now as well, since the need for energy independence is staring them in the face. The fact that this will unleash an economic boom and boost job creation (bringing U3 below 10%) can't hurt either.

As a bit of a "twofer", here is a short piece on Russia's cyberwar efforts WRT the downing of a civilian airliner:

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2014/07/russia-caught-editing-wikipedia-entry-about-downed-malaysian-airliner/



> *Russia caught editing Wikipedia entry about downed Malaysian airliner*
> Twitter bot that monitors Wikipedia edits catches Russian TV network in the act.
> 
> by Kadhim Shubber July 18 2014, 5:41pm EDT
> 
> The world is still reeling from the shock of the deaths of 298 people on Malaysian flight MH17, which was shot down in Ukraine yesterday, but the battle to write and rewrite history has already begun online.
> 
> Thanks to a Twitter bot that monitors Wikipedia edits made from Russian government IP addresses, someone from the All-Russia State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company (VGTRK) has been caught editing a Russian-language Wikipedia reference to MH17 in an article on aviation disasters.
> 
> Статья в Википедии Список авиационных катастроф в гражданской авиации была отредактирована ВГТРК http://t.co/peZ60q07Fj
> 
> — Госправки (@RuGovEdits) July 18, 2014
> The tweet reads: "Wikipedia article List of aircraft accidents in civil aviation has been edited by RTR [another name for VGTRK]" (Google Translate).
> 
> The edit was in response to an initial edit to the MH17 section that said the plane was shot down "by terrorists of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic with Buk system missiles, which the terrorists received from the Russian Federation," according to the website Global Voices.
> 
> In a counter-edit less than an hour later, the entry was changed to say, "The plane was shot down by Ukrainian soldiers."
> 
> Edit wars in Wikipedia are nothing new. Politicians, PR companies, and individuals of all stripes have been caught editing Wikipedia pages to better suit their interests and reputations.
> 
> With deeply controversial and breaking news events like the shooting down of MH17, the motivation to rewrite the first draft of history is even stronger. Although the evidence appears to place the blame at the hands of pro-Russian Ukrainian rebels ( with The Sun going even further with their front-page headline "Putin's Missile"),  Russia has denied any involvement in the incident.
> 
> Luckily edits on Wikipedia are recorded, and the IP addresses of the person editing it are publicly viewable, meaning that, at the very least, underhanded editing can be exposed.
> 
> The Twitter bot that spotted the edit, @RuGovEdits, is one of a host of government-monitoring bots that include the US congress-focussed @CongressEdits, which were inspired by the UK's @ParliamentEdits.
> 
> This story originally appeared on Wired UK.


----------



## vonGarvin

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> I don't think Germany's dream of a cohesive, German dominated _Mitteleuropa_ can exist with Russia as a baleful, hostile force on its borders. (I also think a German dominated _Mitteleuropa_ is essential for the economic security of all of Europe.)



I hate to say it, but Herr Schickelgrüber said essentially the same thing in the 1920s.  He was right then, and I think you're right now.

So, 2 points.

1.  Germany still has a dream of dominating (economically?  socially?  culturally?) Mitteleuropa.  Russia, even two countries over (the Kaliningrad enclave notwithstanding) is still a threat to that dream.

2.  For all of Europe to prosper, it needs a strong hub.  That hub is Germany.  See point 1.


----------



## Edward Campbell

General Disorder said:
			
		

> I hate to say it, but Herr Schickelgrüber said essentially the same thing in the 1920s.  He was right then, and I think you're right now.
> 
> So, 2 points.
> 
> 1.  Germany still has a dream of dominating (economically?  socially?  culturally?) Mitteleuropa.  Russia, even two countries over (the Kaliningrad enclave notwithstanding) is still a threat to that dream.
> 
> 2.  For all of Europe to prosper, it needs a strong hub.  That hub is Germany.  See point 1.




I know, it's horrid, isn't it? But inevitable, I guess.


----------



## vonGarvin

To go further along that, the last time Europe had one major currency was when it had the Reichsmark.  That was a very corrupt period, and I imagine that it was "less than efficient" (to say the least).



Anyway, Russia cannot be under estimated.  The Russian has a way to be resilient; however, it can be defeated, much as it was in 1917 by the Germans: through political subversion.  


One just has to be careful to make sure that the subversion doesn't come back to bite you in the arse:


----------



## Edward Campbell

My _opinion_ (guess is a better word) is that the best way to bring down Russia is, as it was a century ago, through internal revolt. I _think_ (guess again) that Russia is an unnatural socio-political construct. My _ideal_ Russia is a country that stretches from Sevastopol (and yes, I think Crimea IS Russian) to St Petersburg and Murmansk, in the West, to the Urals; I hope for two or three new states in the East and Far Eastern Regions to _buffer_ the Chinese as Belarus and Ukraine should _buffer_ Europe. 

I think, but I'll gladly defer to those with more knowledge and experience - many, many of you, that there is a cultural tension or friction between the Germanic peoples and the Slavs.

I reiterate that it was a mistake to enlarge NATO to include former Warsaw Pact members ... we forgot the AIM of NATO and, needlessly, provoked Russian nationalists by rubbing their noses in their Cold War defeat. Instead of deterring the Russian we poked them in the eye.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Maybe, at least according to this article, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the _Financial Times_, a few countries, are starting to lose patience with the "let's not be beastly to the Russians" nonsense:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ba4b5ff0-0f3c-11e4-89b6-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz380Qzv9iv


> UK and Netherlands call for review of EU-Russia relations
> 
> By Roman Olearchyk in Grabove, Suzanne Blumsom and David Firn in London and Kathrin Hille in Moscow
> 
> July 20, 2014
> 
> The UK and the Netherlands have called on the EU to review its ties with Russia as evidence mounted that pro-Russia separatists in eastern Ukraine shot down Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 on Thursday.
> Key developments
> 
> Raising the expectation of further sanctions against Russia, David Cameron, the British prime minister, and Mark Rutte, his Dutch counterpart, said on Saturday that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin needed to “actively engage with the international community and use his influence on the separatists to ensure they allow access to the crash site”.
> 
> Downing Street said Mr Cameron and Mr Rutte had agreed that the EU would need to “reconsider its approach to Russia in light of evidence that pro-Russia separatists brought down the plane”.
> 
> Ukraine said armed men at the site of the crash in rebel-held territory had prevented government experts from collecting evidence and had threatened to detain them.
> 
> “The terrorists, with the help of Russia, are trying to destroy evidence of international crimes,” the government said.
> 
> More than a dozen observers from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe also found their path to the main crash site initially blocked by a bus that rebels had placed across the road.
> Frans Timmermans, Dutch foreign minister, said the Netherlands was “angry, furious” at news that some of the 298 bodies at the site were not being “treated properly”.
> 
> He said the Netherlands would not rest until those responsible, and those that supported them, were brought to justice.
> 
> The US state department said it was “deeply concerned” at the separatists’ refusal to allow OSCE monitors unfettered access to the crash site, and criticised the reported removal of bodies and aircraft parts and potential tampering with evidence.
> 
> “This is unacceptable and an affront to all those who lost loved ones and to the dignity the victims deserve,” said Jen PsakI, state department spokeswoman. “It is critical that there be a full, credible, and unimpeded international investigation as quickly as possible. Russia-backed separatists committed Thursday to allowing full access to international observers and response teams and Russia supported an OSCE statement calling for the same. We urge Russia to honor its commitments and to publicly call on the separatists to do the same.”
> 
> Philip Hammond, the new UK foreign secretary, complained that Britain was “not getting enough support from the Russians”.
> 
> “The world’s eyes will be on Russia to see if she delivers on her obligations in the next couple of hours,” Mr Hammond said.
> 
> In a rare admission by Russia of its role in the conflict, Moscow pledged on Saturday to use its influence with the rebels to move towards a political solution, in what observers said was a small signal that Moscow might become more co-operative.
> 
> Moscow said Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, and John Kerry, US secretary of state, agreed in a phone call on Saturday that both parties in the Ukrainian conflict should observe the April Geneva Declaration, which called for the end of violence.
> 
> Mr Kerry called for investigators to receive “full, immediate, and unfettered access” to the crash site.
> 
> Downing Street said Mr Cameron would also support moves by Tony Abbott, Australia’s prime minister, to try to block Mr Putin from attending a G20 summit in November if he failed to help with the investigation.
> 
> US President Barack Obama said on Friday that the aircraftwas brought down by a missile fired from territory controlled by pro-Russia separatists and that the rebels in eastern Ukraine had received training from Russia in the use of anti-aircraft weaponry.
> 
> The calls for Russia to bring the rebels to heel came as Ukraine accused Russian military personnel of firing the missile that downed MH17. Kiev released photographs  of a Buk rocket system – the missile widely believed to have been used – it said were taken on Thursday in territory held by the separatists near the crash site. One image showed a trail of smoke, which the state security service said was left by a rocket after it was fired at the airliner on Thursday.
> 
> “Russia is trying to cover its tracks and claim that another party is responsible for the act of terrorism,” said Vitaliy Nayda, the head of counter-intelligence.
> 
> _Additional reporting by Andrew Parker in London, Jamie Smyth in Sydney and Geoff Dyer in Washington_




The _FT_ also reports that Australia has threatened to try and block Russian president Vladimir Putin from attending a G20 summit in November. If that proves legally impossible then delegations, including, one hopes, Australia, Canada, Germany, India, Japan, Republic of Korea, Mexico, the United Kingdom, the United States and the European Union, should refuse to sit at the table with Putin - boycott the G20, in other words and start the process of complete isolation of Russia as an international pariah (criminal) state.


----------



## Old Sweat

My guess is that there is little to be gained in looking at ways to destabilize Russia. Most some of the European countries are more or less fine with the status quo ante Ukraine crisis. 

On another tack, the shooting down of the airliner may actually act as a restraint on Putin et al in the short to mid term. The world's attention is focused on the region - albeit along with Gaza - and it would take a finding blaming Ukraine by an impartial panel based on a load of very strong evidence for the Russians not to be tarred with some of the blame at least indirectly. The balance of opinion is probably in the Ukraine camp and is not likely to shift in the foreseeable future. The rebels now are painted as the bad guys and Putin could conceivably toss them under the bus or the tracks of a AD missile launcher.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Listen to what Max Boot (_Council on Foreign Relations_) has to say, *especially from 2:50 to 3:40*, in this clip from _Fox News_.

There are real, punishing, non-military actions the US can take. (I agree, somewhat, with Mr Boot: send weapons to Ukraine; I disagree: do not send 'advisors;' I *strongly agree* with denying Russia the use of dollars - it will hurt, badly. The ruble is junk, no one with brains the gods gave to green peppers trades with 'em; the _Euro_ is weak; the dollar is what everyone uses to conduct international transactions.)


----------



## pbi

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> ...I reiterate that it was a mistake to enlarge NATO to include former Warsaw Pact members ... we forgot the AIM of NATO and, needlessly, provoked Russian nationalists by rubbing their noses in their Cold War defeat. Instead of deterring the Russian we poked them in the eye.



 I am with ERC here. This points out the difficulty in dealing with Russia: striking a balance between calm, firm but essentially defensive measures to keep it in check, and more aggressive (but no doubt more satisfying...) measures that provoke an inflamed  and unpredictable reaction from a country that has xenophobia, paranoia and mindless nationalism running very deep in its veins. I could add the toxic chemicals of neo-fascism and an alliance of religion and nationalism, but those aren't confined to Russia these days.

Russia is not, IMHO, really a "European" country and will not necessarily react in ways that we might expect any other European country to do.  My (limited) read of its history is that it has a very deep-rooted siege mentality (for good reasons, I should add), and thrives on its heritage of massive suffering and sacrifice.  The average Russians can probably tolerate far more than most Western populations if they feel that Holy Mother Russia is in peril. It is the rich who will feel the pinch more, since they have more to lose and are more likely to have assets and ventures outside the country.

The worst possible move that could occur now would be to make Ukraine a NATO member: this will be exactly what the Putin regime's propaganda machine (and those deep seated Russian beliefs I referred to..) are expecting. It would add little or nothing to NATO, saddle the Alliance with yet another weak member of questionable value and political stability, and add fuel to the fire in Russia.

Much better to hurt Russia and its oligarchy as hard as we can, and maintain a firm but calm military front that is credible but not provocative. Demonstrating the massive ISR capability that the West has, and publicizing more Russian military movements including with FMV clips, would be useful. This would have to be done judiciously to avoid compromising sources, but it would be a good counter to the massive Russian disinformation program that has been going on for months now.


----------



## FJAG

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Maybe, at least according to this article, . . . , a few countries, are starting to lose patience with the "let's not be beastly to the Russians" nonsense:



I applaud the recent statements coming out of the Netherlands. Their tone was entirely appropriate considering how many of their citizens died in this criminal act.

It's perhaps easier for the UK and the Netherlands to call a spade a spade. They are the two European countries that are the least dependent on Russian energy.

 :cheers:


----------



## McG

Seems odd to apply the domestic law concept of criminal negligence, but I suppose it is easier than explaining LOAC and the requirement for discrimination in force application.





> *Lack of Radar could have prevented missile operators from knowing plane was a jetliner
> Missile fired without attempting to identify the aircraft would be criminal negligence*
> Danica Kirk & John-Thor Dahlburg
> CTV News
> 19 July 2014
> 
> LONDON -- If Ukrainian rebels shot down the Malaysian jetliner, killing 298 people, it may have been because they didn't have the right systems in place to distinguish between military and civilian aircraft, experts said Saturday.
> 
> American officials said Friday that they believe the Boeing 777 was brought down by an SA-11 missile fired from an area of eastern Ukraine controlled by pro-Russian separatists. U.N. Ambassador Samantha Power said the Russians might have provided technical help to the rebels to operate the systems.
> 
> But to function correctly, an SA-11 launcher, also known as a Buk, is supposed to be connected to a central radar command -- as opposed to acting alone -- to be certain of exactly what kind of aircraft it is shooting at.
> 
> From the information that has come to light so far, the rebels don't appear to have such systems, said Pavel Felgenhauer, a respected defence columnist for Novaya Gazeta, a Moscow-based newspaper known for its critical coverage of Russian affairs.
> 
> "They could easily make a tragic mistake and shoot down a passenger plane when indeed they wanted to shoot down a Ukrainian transport plane," he said.
> 
> On Friday, Russia's state-owned RIA Novosti news agency also quoted Konstantin Sivkov, director of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, as saying Buk missiles "should be provided with external systems of target identification, that is, radio-location systems. It's an entire system. And the insurgents certainly don't have radio-location."
> 
> Without a backup, a missile can be fired by operators who are not totally sure of what they are aiming at.
> 
> "Just seeing a blip on a radar screen was in no away sufficient to make a targeting decision," said Keir Giles, associate fellow for international security and Russia and Eurasia programs at the Royal Institute of International Affairs. "You need an additional radar system to which these weapons systems can be connected for additional information."
> 
> Social media postings from the rebels in the immediate aftermath of Thursday's Malaysia Airlines disaster also suggested they had assumed civilian aircraft were avoiding the area and that anything in the air was hostile.
> 
> If a missile was fired without attempting to identify the aircraft, the destruction of Malaysia Flight 17 would be an act of criminal negligence, said retired U.S. Air Force Maj. Gen. Robert Latiff. He said commercial airliners operate on known communications frequencies and emit signals that identify them and give their altitude and speed.
> 
> "It doesn't sound like the separatists were using any of this (information), or tried for that matter," said Latiff, who oversaw advanced weapons research and development for the Air Force and now teaches at the University of Notre Dame.
> 
> "My guess is the system's radar saw a return from a big 'cargo' plane flying at 30,000 feet or so and either automatically fired, or some aggressive, itchy operator fired, not wanting to miss an opportunity. It doesn't seem they chose to seek any additional data before pulling the trigger," Latiff said.
> 
> A NATO military officer, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to make public statements, said a Buk launcher, which is a self-propelled tracked vehicle resembling a tank, is ordinarily under the orders of a separate command post vehicle.
> 
> "In a totally textbook way of setting up, the command post vehicle assigns targets and designates the firing units -- launcher 1 or launcher 2," the NATO officer said.
> 
> Once targeted by such a potent weapon, the Boeing wide-body twinjet would have had little chance. Edward Hunt, a senior consultant for IHS Jane's, which provides news and analysis on defence and geopolitical issues, said a commercial plane is not a difficult target for someone who knows how to operate a surface-to-air missile system.
> 
> "Civilian aircraft fly in a straight line," Hunt said. "A civilian aircraft doesn't try to take evasive action. It probably didn't even know it was targeted."
> 
> In her remarks to the U.N. Security Council, Power said that a journalist had reported seeing an SA-11 system early Thursday in separatist-controlled territory near Snizhne, "and separatists were spotted hours before the incident with an SA-11 SAM system close to the site where the plane came down."
> 
> Power didn't identify the reporter. But on Thursday, AP journalists saw a rocket launcher near Snizhne.
> 
> Rebels also bragged in June 29 report carried by Russia's Itar-Tass news agency that they had gotten hold of some Buk missile systems from Ukrainian stocks, though they did not say how many or describe their condition.
> 
> A few weeks later, rebels shot down a Ukrainian Antonov 26, a military transport plane that can fly at altitudes of up to 7,500 metres (24,750 feet).
> 
> If Thursday's disaster was due to mistaken identity, it would not be the first.
> 
> Soviet air defences in 1983 accidentally shot down Korean Airlines Flight 007, killing 269. In 1988, the USS Vincennes, a guided missile cruiser, brought down Iran Air Flight 655, with 290 people aboard, after mistaking it for an attacking warplane.
> 
> In October 2001, Siberian Airlines Flight 1812, travelling from Tel Aviv, Israel, to Novosibirsk, Russia, plunged into the Black Sea, killing all 78 aboard. The Ukrainian military at first denied responsibility but later admitted its military mistakenly shot down the plane during a training exercise.


----------



## Bird_Gunner45

MCG said:
			
		

> Seems odd to apply the domestic law concept of criminal negligence, but I suppose it is easier than explaining LOAC and the requirement for discrimination in force application.



While the lack of an IFF mod would have made POSITIVE identification of the aircraft impossible, PROCEDURAL methods, include the aircrafts speed, the fact that it was within a defined airspace corridor designed for civilian traffic, altitude etc would have tipped off a professional air defender that this was not a military aircraft or at least delayed it's engagement. I dont imagine that this was the first airliner to use this corridor, so there would have been precedent. On the flipside, if the Ukrainians used the flight corridor to mask their own flights than that in and of itself would be a violation of the international flight laws/standards and would, IMHO, make Ukraine as liable for the incident as russia.

The Buk is a complex system so I doubt strongly that the rebels just magically learned to use it (ie- Russian air defenders either operated or Left seat/right seated some militia operator for appearance). Assuming that it's a Russian system with some level of russian expertise than it's hard to believe that they wouldn't have sent in the acquisition radar, targetting radar, and the IFF mod. If they did than perhaps we really dont have anything to worry from the Russian air defences....

As for it being a captured Ukrainian piece, it's a possibility. However, being complex equipment that is not "intuitive" I imagine that someone from Russia was sent to assist.


----------



## McG

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> I don't think Germany's dream of a cohesive, German dominated _Mitteleuropa_ can exist with Russia as a baleful, hostile force on its borders. (I also think a German dominated _Mitteleuropa_ is essential for the economic security of all of Europe.)





			
				E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> I reiterate that it was a mistake to enlarge NATO to include former Warsaw Pact members ... we forgot the AIM of NATO and, needlessly, provoked Russian nationalists by rubbing their noses in their Cold War defeat.


I suppose the NATO eastern expansion would have made sense from the perspective of enabling a German dominated Central Europe.  Could the wrong move for western members of the alliance whale been the logical progression for proponents of the Mitteleuropa vision?


----------



## Edward Campbell

MCG said:
			
		

> I suppose the NATO eastern expansion would have made sense from the perspective of enabling a German dominated Central Europe.  Could the wrong move for western members of the alliance whale been the logical progression for proponents of the Mitteleuropa vision?




It would have been, I think, if it had been a German idea. But my memory suggests that both expansions (1999 and 2004) were American initiatives: Bill Clinton/Madeleine Albright and George W Bush/Colin Powell, respectively, were advocates of using NATO as a diplomatic wedge to 'reward' Eastern Europe. My _sense_ is that the Germans (Gerhard Schröder and Joschka Fischer, throughout both expansions) were less keen on NATO, generally, and might even have wished to reduce NATO's importance, not enlarge it.


----------



## FJAG

Bird_Gunner45 said:
			
		

> . . . On the flipside, if the Ukrainians used the flight corridor to mask their own flights than that in and of itself would be a violation of the international flight laws/standards and would, IMHO, make Ukraine as liable for the incident as russia. . . .



As I understand it the B777 was flying at around 33,000 feet in designated flight lane L980 which was open to civilian traffic above 32,000 feet at the time. There are literally dozens of airways that criss-cross the Ukraine and its almost impossible to fly in the sky without being in or crossing a designated airway.

Altitudes are critical in those circumstances where dangerous operations (guns, rockets or missiles) are in play below.

Note that the B777 is a high-level, 300-400 pax, wide body two engine jet that cruises at around 900 kph. The An-26 (which the rebels apparently thought they were engaging) is a mid-level 40 pax turboprop military transport that typically cruises at 400 kph and has a max service ceiling of around 25,000 feet.

It is impossible to have an AN 26 use the flight airway in the way that the B777 was using it. 

There are only two groups of people responsible for this incident. The idiots that caused a high level missile intercept system to be deployed in this region (read Russians) and the idiots who engaged a high flying jet liner travelling within a recognized airway on a published schedule thinking it was a slow flying, lower altitude capable military transport (read Russians and maybe their surrogates)

My sole question is did the Russians just cause the Buk launchers with their integral target acquisition/targeting radar system to be deployed or did they also deploy one of the the command and control systems that refines the process to include identification, prioritization and engagement command? Deploying isolated Buks without their command element in this type of environment appears at the very least tactically stupid and reckless.

 :cheers:


----------



## Kirkhill

Bird_Gunner45 said:
			
		

> While the lack of an IFF mod would have made POSITIVE identification of the aircraft impossible, PROCEDURAL methods, include the aircrafts speed, the fact that it was within a defined airspace corridor designed for civilian traffic, altitude etc would have tipped off a professional air defender that this was not a military aircraft or at least delayed it's engagement. I dont imagine that this was the first airliner to use this corridor, so there would have been precedent. On the flipside, if the Ukrainians used the flight corridor to mask their own flights than that in and of itself would be a violation of the international flight laws/standards and would, IMHO, make Ukraine as liable for the incident as russia.



Courtesy of the BBC











MH17 doesn't appear to have been flying alone through empty skies.  She had company up there.  

I'm suspecting vodka and testosterone.....

As to the issue of NATO eastern expansion: couldn't we, just as easily, be debating whether or not we should have allowed Germany to reunite under NATO?   Is there any way that could have been prevented?  I fail to see, especially given the "living memory" aspects of Munich in Czechoslovakia, the Danzig Corridor in Poland and Yalta generally in the rest of the east, how the West could have responded any differently.

For many of the easterners we're not the good guys.  Not because we, the west, opposed Russia.  But because we didn't oppose Russia (and Germany) soon enough and hard enough.


----------



## Bird_Gunner45

FJAG said:
			
		

> As I understand it the B777 was flying at around 33,000 feet in designated flight lane L980 which was open to civilian traffic above 32,000 feet at the time. There are literally dozens of airways that criss-cross the Ukraine and its almost impossible to fly in the sky without being in or crossing a designated airway.
> 
> Altitudes are critical in those circumstances where dangerous operations (guns, rockets or missiles) are in play below.
> 
> Note that the B777 is a high-level, 300-400 pax, wide body two engine jet that cruises at around 900 kph. The An-26 (which the rebels apparently thought they were engaging) is a mid-level 40 pax turboprop military transport that typically cruises at 400 kph and has a max service ceiling of around 25,000 feet.
> 
> It is impossible to have an AN 26 use the flight airway in the way that the B777 was using it.
> 
> There are only two groups of people responsible for this incident. The idiots that caused a high level missile intercept system to be deployed in this region (read Russians) and the idiots who engaged a high flying jet liner travelling within a recognized airway on a published schedule thinking it was a slow flying, lower altitude capable military transport (read Russians and maybe their surrogates)
> 
> My sole question is did the Russians just cause the Buk launchers with their integral target acquisition/targeting radar system to be deployed or did they also deploy one of the the command and control systems that refines the process to include identification, prioritization and engagement command? Deploying isolated Buks without their command element in this type of environment appears at the very least tactically stupid and reckless.
> 
> :cheers:



I guess from a procedural perspective it would depend on the specs of the flight corridor to what aircraft would be able to fly within it. Corridors for military flight would be published seperately and would be VERY specific, especially in a threat environment. See that the Ukrainians were aware that there was a Buk in the area it seems unlikely that they wouldn't have planned for it in their flight routes. military aircraft would (at least should) avoid civilian flight routes whenever possible to avoid such incidents. That the civilian ATC wouldn't have modified the flight route means that intelligence wasn't shared or they didn't appreciate the threat.

 That said, one would have to make the assumption that the russians were aware of the air corridors/lanes. If they weren't and didn't have IFF could they be held liable (particularly if it's shown that Ukrainian military aircraft used the same routes)?

Finally, I agree fully that sending AD systems into an environment like this without AT LEAST an IFF mod is tactically/operationally/strategically imbecilic to say the least. Someone in Russia is, I assume, being given a hard lesson in airspace control in a warzone.


----------



## jeffb

Bird_Gunner45 said:
			
		

> The Buk is a complex system so I doubt strongly that the rebels just magically learned to use it (ie- Russian air defenders either operated or Left seat/right seated some militia operator for appearance). Assuming that it's a Russian system with some level of russian expertise than it's hard to believe that they wouldn't have sent in the acquisition radar, targetting radar, and the IFF mod. If they did than perhaps we really dont have anything to worry from the Russian air defences....



Why could the rebels have not figured out how to use the Buk? The system has been around for 30 years now in one form or another. It is not inconceivable that there are those amongst the rebels who at some point served, and have been trained, on this kit. I can't even begin to imagine how many people served in these over the years and now find themselves amongst the rebels. Of course, it's just as likely that the Russian's are providing technical expertise here.


----------



## Bird_Gunner45

jeffb said:
			
		

> Why could the rebels have not figured out how to use the Buk? The system has been around for 30 years now in one form or another. It is not inconceivable that there are those amongst the rebels who at some point served, and have been trained, on this kit. I can't even begin to imagine how many people served in these over the years and now find themselves amongst the rebels. Of course, it's just as likely that the Russian's are providing technical expertise here.



I would agree that there could be someone on the rebel side that trained on the kit and now finds themselves in it on the other side just like any other piece of kit the rebels have (including field arty, tanks, APCs, etc). The reason I believe that Russians would be providing expertise would be the more technical nature of the system vs other systems the rebels have (skill fade, etc), the heavier requirement for maintenance of the system, and the fact it's believed to have moved into Russia after the attack. 

I have seen guys who trained on the ADATS for years, get posted out for 2-3 years, and come back to be lost on the system so I would imagine it would be the same for this piece of kit.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Too bad we don't have an Armoured Division handy that could roll in there at short notice and secure the disaster site on behalf of the international community. 

Oh, and teach them a lesson too, on behalf of the families involved.


----------



## McG

daftandbarmy said:
			
		

> Too bad we don't have an Armoured Division handy that could roll in there at short notice and secure the disaster site on behalf of the international community.
> 
> Oh, and teach them a lesson too, on behalf of the families involved.


I can't see such a solution doing more than making things worse.


----------



## a_majoor

A rather bizarre sidebar to the conflict; evidently various Russian and Ukrainian SF writers were penning scenarios about the war before it ever started. Now living on the ground there they would certainly have a much better sense of what people are like and what they want and fear, so maybe this isn't very surprising (after all, there was a rash of war fiction about conflict between the UK and Germany well in advance of the Great War), but it is still rather weird:

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2014/07/science_fiction_writers_predicted_ukraine_conflict_now_they_re_fighting.html



> The Sci-Fi Writers’ War
> 
> They predicted and possibly inspired the conflict in the Ukraine, and now they’re fighting it.
> 
> By Cathy Young
> Slavyansk, Ukraine
> A pro-Russia activist hangs a flag of the“Donetsk People’s Republic” on the regional administration building seized by separatists as armed men guard the premises in Slavyansk, Ukraine, on April 21, 2014.
> Photo by Genya Savilov/AFP/Getty Images
> 
> A pro-Western, NATO-backed Ukrainian government faces a stubborn insurgency in the pro-Russian East. Fighting rages around Donetsk, with civilians dying in artillery fire and airstrikes, while Russian troops mass on the Ukrainian border. The latest headlines? No, a two-novel series by Russian-Ukrainian science-fiction writer Fedor Berezin: War 2010: The Ukrainian Front and War 2011: Against NATO.
> 
> In a startling plot twist, Berezin, a 54-year-old former Soviet Army officer and Donetsk native, is now living inside a real-life version of his own story: He is deputy defense minister of the embattled “Donetsk People’s Republic.” And this is just one of many bizarre overlaps between fantasy and reality in the current conflict in Eastern Ukraine—a convergence that prompted one Russian commentator, novelist Dmitry Bykov, to dub this conflict “the writers’ war.”
> 
> In the apocalyptic novel, a brutal Kiev regime seeks to quash rebellion in the East with NATO help.
> Berezin’s War 2010/War 2011 books, published in 2009 and 2010, respectively, were no uniquely prophetic vision; actually, they were the last in a string of novels depicting a near future in which Ukraine becomes a battleground in a larger East-West confrontation. A forerunner of the genre, Omega, by veteran sci-fi/fantasy writer Andrei Valentinov, came out in 2005, shortly after Ukraine’s pro-Western Orange Revolution. It depicted three alternate-history versions of 2004, one of them a dystopia in which Crimea had been invaded and occupied by NATO forces in 1995; while the main characters were resistance fighters, they were both anti-Moscow and anti-NATO. (Valentinov, a Russian-speaking Ukrainian whose real name is Andrei Shmalko and who lives in Kharkiv, one of Eastern Ukraine’s major cities, has professed equal distaste for “Russian chauvinists,” “Ukrainian nationalists,” and “American globalists”; more recently, he has strongly affirmed his loyalty to Ukraine.)
> 
> A far more straightforward vision of Russian good vs. Western evil is offered in The Age of the Stillborn by Gleb Bobrov, who like Berezin is an ethnic Russian from Eastern Ukraine (Luhansk) and an Afghanistan war veteran. The apocalyptic novel, set in a near future in which a brutal Kiev regime seeks to quash rebellion in the East with NATO help, was first published online in 2006 and became a hit on the Russian Internet before going to print in 2007. Donetsk citizen Grigory Savitsky made his literary debut in 2009 with Battlefield Ukraine: The Broken Trident, which depicts a scenario uncannily similar to Berezin’s saga, right down to 2010 as the start of the war. The back cover summary refers to “ ‘Orange’ Nazis” who provoke a civil war in Ukraine and unleash genocide against the Russian-speaking population, “wiping entire cities off the face of the earth”—aided by NATO “peacekeeping” troops and American air power.
> 
> The stream of Russo-Ukrainian war literature published in Russia at the end of the 2000s—both speculative fiction and conspiracy-theory nonfiction—alarmed Ukrainian politician Arsen Avakov, then governor of the Kharkiv region and now Ukraine’s minister of internal affairs. In an emotional March 2009 post on the Ukrainska Pravda website titled, “Do the Russians want war?” Avakov suggested that the books were part of a deliberate Kremlin strategy to build up popular support for war against Ukraine by playing to Soviet nostalgia among older readers and ignorance among younger ones.
> 
> Avakov was particularly scandalized by Berezin’s involvement in the orgy of anti-Ukraine saber-rattling—because, in yet another quirk of fate, the two men knew each other fairly well from their Ukrainian science-fiction fandom. In his spare time away from politics, Avakov happens to be a sci-fi enthusiast; he founded and co-chaired the annual sci-fi/fantasy convention in Kharkiv, Star Bridge. (Launched in 1999, the convention was indefinitely suspended in 2012 due to squabbling between Avakov and Kharkiv's new pro-Russian mayor, Gennady Kernes.) Berezin was a Star Bridge regular for years and won numerous fiction awards at the convention, starting with first prize in the “debut novel” category for his 2001 novel Ash. “I know Fedor personally!” Avakov lamented in his post, sparing no punctuation marks in his dismay. “How could he let himself be pulled into such things???”
> 
> Five years later, Berezin and Avakov are literally on the opposite sides of the barricades. Avakov, who stepped down as governor in 2010 after the Orange leadership in Kiev fell to the pro-Moscow Viktor Yanukovych and then joined the new government after Yanukovych’s ouster in February 2014, urges tough action against the rebels in the East and bluntly refers to them as “terrorists.” Berezin is one of those rallying the rebel troops—and waging war in the social media, directing his zingers at the “Ukros,” “Maidowns,” “little Nazis,” and lovers of “gaymocracy.”


----------



## Kirkhill

Tangent Alert ... Kind of...Maybe... I think ..... Change the reference to Russians ... or maybe not.


Pace Noel Coward.....circa 1944.




> Don't let's be beastly to the Germans
> Now our victory is ultimately won
> Let us treat them very kindly
> As we would a valued friend
> We might them out some bishops
> As a form of lease and lend
> 
> Let's be sweet to them
> And day by day repeat to them
> That sterilization simply isn't done
> Let's sweetly sympathize again
> And help the scum to rise again
> But don't let's be beastly to the Hun
> 
> We must be kind
> And with an open mind
> We must endeavor to find a way
> To let the Germans know
> That now the war is over
> They are not the ones who have to pay
> 
> We must be sweet
> And tactful and discreet
> And now they've suffered defeat
> We mustn't let them feel upset or ever get the feeling
> That we're cross with them or hate them
> Our future policy must be to reinstate them
> 
> Don't let's be beastly to the Germans
> For they're civilized
> When all is said and done
> Though they gave us science, culture, art, and music, to excess
> They also gave us two world wars and Dr. Rudolph Hess
> 
> Let's be meek to them
> And turn the other cheek to them
> And try to arouse their latent sense of fun
> Let's give them full air parity
> And treat the rats with charity
> But don't let's be beastly to the Hun
> 
> Don't let's be beastly to the Germans
> You can't deprive a gangster of his gun
> Though they've been a little naughty
> To the Czechs and Poles and Dutch
> I can't believe those countries
> Really minded very much
> 
> Let's be free with them
> And share the BBC with them
> We mustn't prevent them basking in the sun
> Let's soften their defeat again
> And build their bloody fleet again
> But don't let's be beastly to the Hun
> Read more at http://www.songlyrics.com/noel-coward/don-t-let-s-be-beastly-to-the-germans-lyrics/#T2CxcO4k32SODMrV.99


----------



## vonGarvin

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> As to the issue of NATO eastern expansion: couldn't we, just as easily, be debating whether or not we should have allowed Germany to reunite under NATO?


Apparently a condition of the German Democratic Republic merging with the Federal Republic of Germany was the creation of the Euro.  Not sure what else was involved.


----------



## pbi

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> Tangent Alert ... Kind of...Maybe... I think ..... Change the reference to Russians ... or maybe not.
> 
> 
> Pace Noel Coward.....circa 1944.


So what did Noel Coward want? A repeat of 1919? That worked out well for the world, didn't it?

I still believe (perhaps myopically or fondly) that staying a calm, firm course with Russia is the way to go. Some people may want to characterize this as "_not being beastly to the Russians_". I would say it's more like not being jingoistically stupid.  There is, in my opinion, a world of difference between firm prudence and appeasement.

We might be heading for the Big One, finally. Who knows?   Apparently some people (not Kirkhill...)  are quite keen to see that happen, or at least to try to provoke it.  I'm not. If human history tells us anything, it's that these confrontation things have a horrible way of getting out of control and developing an irresistible momentum, once fear and misunderstanding get in the way.  Making bombastic  statements for domestic political consumption is not really going to do much good.

-Keep steady, specifically targeted pressure on the Russian diplomatic, economic and financial fronts. Remember that broad brush sanctions are usually never enforceable and don't normally hurt the elite and their apparatus;

-maintain a credible but not overtly aggressive military capability. This means Europe taking a more active role in its own defence.; and

-finally, be ready to fight if this thing spreads to the borders of the "real" NATO. Because, in the end, fighting is what you are left with if deterrence fails. And deterrence without the determination to fight is just a hollow threat. I don't want to see this third step happen, but it may be necessary. I sincerely hope that, if we go this way, we consider the possible results.

I remain hopeful that the downing of  the Malay airliner may actually have a positive effect: it might make Putin think twice (if only briefly) about the gang of savages he has unleashed in the Eastern Ukraine, and how hard it is to exert control over groups like this once they get going. Maybe he will see that continuation of hte fighting is doing more harm to Russia than good.  I would say that he has an opportunity for statesmanship, but I'm not sure the he is really a statesman.


----------



## vonGarvin

:goodpost:

Putin is less statesman and more Czar.  I'm not sure if he's the only one responsible for the "savages" in the east of Ukraine.  I think that they have very real grievances over the happenings in Kyiv; however, there are other ways to show your displeasure.  Then again, the "savages" in the west of Ukraine were successful in their coup d'état, so I guess these "savages" thought they may as well see how successful they can be...


----------



## The Bread Guy

A few recent tidbits to add to the discussion crock pot ....

_"Netherlands opens war crimes investigation into airliner downing"_ (Reuters)
_“President of Ukraine Poroshenko encourages all maximally facilitate the work of international experts to study the circumstances of the tragedy of the plane “Malaysian Airlines”.  The President announced that ordered the military to immediately cease operations within 40 kilometres around the blast site in order to provide experts an opportunity to work ….”_  (Press Service of the President of Ukraine, in Ukrainian)
_“Rada will consider decree on partial mobilization Tuesday – (Parliamentary Chairman) Turchynov“_  (ukrinform.ua)
_".... the first international investigators reached eastern Ukraine on Monday.  Three members of a Dutch disaster victims identification team arrived at a railway station near the crash site where rebels say 247 bodies have been stored in refrigerated wagons.  About two thirds of the crash victims were Dutch.  The head of the team inspected the storage of the bodies in the rail cars and, despite an overwhelming stench of decomposition when the doors were opened, said it was fine.  "The storage of the bodies is of good quality," said Peter van Vliet, whose team went through the wagons dressed in surgical masks and rubber gloves.  Mr Van Vliet said he had been told the train would be leaving the station at Torez later on Monday so that bodies could be taken to where they could be identified and repatriated. He could not say where it was going ...."_ (Reuters) 
_“A pro-Russian rebel who calls himself “Novorossiya”, or New Russia, on Twitter tweeted on Sunday that the black boxes belonging to the downed Malaysian airliner had been brought to Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.   Sergei Kavtaradze, a senior official of the pro-Russian rebels’ self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), declined to comment on the report, which was also carried on Russia’s Interfax news agency ….”_ (Reuters)


----------



## pbi

General Disorder said:
			
		

> :goodpost:
> 
> Putin is less statesman and more Czar.  I'm not sure if he's the only one responsible for the "savages" in the east of Ukraine.  I think that they have very real grievances over the happenings in Kyiv; however, there are other ways to show your displeasure.  Then again, the "savages" in the west of Ukraine were successful in their coup d'état, so I guess these "savages" thought they may as well see how successful they can be...



I'm not a boy scout when it comes to the Ukraine, either. A cursory read of the history of that part of the world will remind the reader that neither Russians nor Ukrainians have the corner on savagery. This is one of the reasons that I counsel caution, as opposed to a blind "Good Guy/Bad Guy" solution.

That said, IMHO the bigger villain at the moment, or the "nearest alligator" is the force created by Russia and its ethnic brethren in the eastern Ukraine.


----------



## The Bread Guy

A little mo' ....

Canada imposes mo' sanctions against mo' folks:  _".... Following consultation and coordination with our closest international partners and allies, the Government of Canada will be imposing new sanctions against a broad range of entities related to various Russian sectors ...."_
Official word of pro-UKR militias in east:  _"Small partisan groups are operating against terrorists in Donetsk and Luhansk.  Spokesman of the Information and Analytical Center of the National Security and Defense Council Andriy Lysenko told a briefing, a Ukrinform correspondent reports.   "We already have information that both in Donetsk and Luhansk there are self-organized small groups of people, who are also fighting the terrorists," Lysenko said ...."_  (ukrinform.ua)
Russian media:  _"Russian Military Says Detected Ukrainian Su-25 Fighter Plane Close to MH17 Before Crash"_
Editor of AEROSPACE (via Twitter):  _"Note on the Ukr Su-25 alleged to be in vicinity of #MH17 (33,000ft) - service ceiling of Su-25 - 23,000ft."_
_"Dep Prime Min #Ukraine Volodymyr Groysman says there is deal to move bodies of victims #MH17 by train to Kharkiv"_ (NYT reporter via Twitter)


----------



## Edward Campbell

Derek Burney and Fen Hampson, both pretty season foreign policy types, offer their assessment and prescriptions in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the _Globe and Mail_:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/seven-steps-the-west-must-take-to-counter-putin/article19688320/#dashboard/follows/
My, colour coded and in larger text, comments are added



> Seven steps the West must take to counter Putin
> 
> DEREK BURNEY AND FEN OSLER HAMPSON
> Contributed to The Globe and Mail
> 
> Published Monday, Jul. 21 2014
> 
> _Derek H. Burney was Canada’s ambassador to the U.S. from 1989-1993. He was directly involved in negotiating the Free Trade Agreement with the U.S.; Fen Osler Hampson is a distinguished fellow and director of Global Security at
> the Centre for International Governance Innovation and Chancellor’s Professor (on leave) at Carleton University. They are the authors of_ Brave New Canada: Meeting the Challenge of a Changing World.
> 
> Just when the eye of the global storm seemed focused on violence erupting throughout the Middle East, the murderous missile assault on a Malaysian jetliner jolted attention back to Russia’s incursion in Ukraine and a conflict that strikes at the core principles of security in Europe, including the inviolability of borders.
> 
> The attack on innocent civilians is a colossal blunder, one that has outraged the entire world and should prompt a firm response from the West, particularly from the Europeans. Russian President Vladimir Putin, like any schoolyard bully, will push against what he perceives as weakness until he is confronted and compelled to pull back.
> 
> Fingers of blame are pointed in all directions but the evidence strongly suggests that the plane was shot down by a surface-to-air missile launched either by the Russian-backed rebels holding the area where the attack took place or by the Russians themselves. It is important to note that both the political and military leaders of the ‘rebel’ group hail from Moscow. That international observers are being denied proper access to the crash site simply confirms the target of guilt. But it also provides room for them to fabricate a different verdict.
> 
> Mr. Putin’s basic motives since his “smack and grab” seizure of Crimea is not only to destabilize Ukraine sufficiently to prevent it from moving closer to the West, but also to project Russian power throughout Eurasia and even into the Middle East, as we see in his continuing support for Syrian leader Bashir Assad and his meddling in Iraq. Thus far, his determination to project Russian power and influence is much stronger than the response of the West to contain his revanchist ambitions.
> 
> Mr. Putin is clearly thriving on the domestic support his takeover of Crimea and Russian separatist efforts in Eastern Ukraine have generated. Perversely, his actions flouting basic international norms have also inspired popular support for him in Europe and elsewhere where examples of “strong” leaders are in short supply.
> 
> What no-one really knows is how far Mr. Putin will go in pursuing his objectives and whether the West can now muster a more coherent and credible response.
> 
> Some believe that Mr. Putin will distinguish between those countries already solidly in the Western camp, especially those already in NATO, and those, like Ukraine, Moldova and Armenia, not yet formally committed. Others argue that there is no guarantee that Mr. Putin will show any more respect for NATO’s Article 5 safeguards than he did for the inviolability of borders or the terms of the Budapest Accord – the pact that formally consigned Crimea to Ukraine in 1994.
> 
> Mr. Putin must draw some satisfaction from the fact that more than one-third of UN members, including all other BRICS countries, tacitly accepted Russia’s illicit land grab. At least until now he has been winning the propaganda war. As Hillary Clinton acknowledged recently, Russian media messaging has been much more consistent and effective than the inchoate response from the West.
> 
> To date, the western powers have had no clear strategy on what to do to check Mr. Putin’s “New Russia” dream. For one thing, the Europeans have been divided; some put more emphasis on economic self-interest vis-a-vis Russia, e.g., for energy supply, than to any concern about the sanctity of borders or even the security of those close to Russia.
> 
> But there are things that could and should be done to bolster Ukraine and to thwart broader military incursions. The downing of the Malaysian jetliner could prove to be a catalyst for collective resolve. Here’s what must be done:
> 
> - A concerted EU/NATO economic assistance package for Ukraine would be a good start, one that would reinforce the credibility of the Poroshenko government and also reduce Ukraine’s economic vulnerability to blackmail by Russia.
> Germany is best placed to lead this initiative;
> Disagree re: NATO. The EU doesn't, really, w3ant Ukraine, either.
> 
> - tangible civil society and advisory support to help Ukraine tackle endemic corruption and provide a broader base for the rule of law – a clear role for Canada;
> Agree, and it's good domestic politics, too
> 
> - direct military supplies for Ukraine to balance what Russia is providing the pseudo-separatists; the U.S. has the capacity. The naval ships France wants to sell to Russia should be purchased by NATO;
> Not sure about the utility of adding arms, but agree about the French ships. Q: who pays?
> 
> - increased NATO military preparations and manoeuvers in and with former Soviet satellites that are now in NATO and safe-guarded under Article 5 to serve notice of an actual trip-wire. Led again by the U.S.;
> Agree but carefully
> 
> - suspending landing rights for Russian airlines until a proper investigation is permitted and the responsibility for the missile attack is clearly assigned;
> YES!!!
> 
> - the Europeans should take steps now to wean themselves off Russian gas supplies – the most effective leverage Mr. Putin has left;
> YES!!!, again
> 
> - and, most importantly, an unequivocal ultimatum putting Russia on notice to cease and desist support for its puppet rebels in Eastern Ukraine or face the consequences of full, Level III sectoral sanctions that include energy and
> financial services. A credible threat of unified sanctions may have more value than sanctions themselves.
> [size=11pt]Agreed, but I think they are being timid
> 
> Total quarantine of Russia serves no strategic purpose. But, the West must show sufficient and calibrated resolve to knock Mr. Putin off his game before matters get completely out of hand. It is not a time for nuance. If this incident does not give the Western Europeans some backbone and inspire more assertive, U.S. leadership, nothing will.


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR government's view of what they want to share about whazzup (source), as of noon local time 21 Jul 14, attached (original in Ukrainian here).

Meanwhile, what RUS's Ministry of Defence is sharing about what they say they saw (in Russian), and here's what the U.S. Embassy in Moscow is saying:


> We assess that Flight MH17 was likely downed by a SA-11 surface-to-air missile from separatist-controlled territory in eastern Ukraine. We base this judgment on several factors.
> 
> Over the past month, we have detected an increasing amount of heavy weaponry to separatist fighters crossing the border from Russia into Ukraine. Last weekend, Russia sent a convoy of military equipment with up to 150 vehicles including tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery, and multiple rocket launchers to the separatist. We also have information indicating that Russia is providing training to separatist fighters at a facility in southwest Russia, and this effort included training on air defense systems.
> 
> Pro-Russian separatist fighters have demonstrated proficiency with surface-to-air missile systems and have downed more than a dozen aircraft over the past few months, including two large transport aircraft.
> 
> At the time that flight MH17 dropped out of contact, we detected a surface-to-air missile (SAM) launch from a separatist-controlled area in southeastern Ukraine. We believe this missile was an SA-11 ....



Finally, reports from the separatist side of tanks in Donetsk flying American, NATO flags.


----------



## vonGarvin

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> _".... the first international investigators reached eastern Ukraine on Monday.  Three members of a Dutch disaster victims identification team arrived at a railway station near the crash site where rebels say 247 bodies have been stored in refrigerated wagons.  About two thirds of the crash victims were Dutch.  The head of the team inspected the storage of the bodies in the rail cars and, despite an overwhelming stench of decomposition when the doors were opened, said it was fine. * "The storage of the bodies is of good quality," said Peter van Vliet*, whose team went through the wagons dressed in surgical masks and rubber gloves.  Mr Van Vliet said he had been told the train would be leaving the station at Torez later on Monday so that bodies could be taken to where they could be identified and repatriated. He could not say where it was going ...."_ (Reuters)


Contrast this to what President Obama said about an hour ago, when he accused the rebels of not treating the bodies with due respect.  Also contrast to the rebel leader, photographed with a teddy bear:





And the video (I can't link at work), where it shows him displaying the bear, replacing it to the ground, and then crossing himself.  Photo op, yes, but the outrage in the West was a bit....harsh.

Any way you slice it, this whole thing is a soup sandwich...


----------



## The Bread Guy

General Disorder said:
			
		

> Any way you slice it, this whole thing is a soup sandwich...


And that's the most _polite_, optimistic assessment I've seen in a bit.


----------



## vonGarvin

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> And that's the most _polite_, optimistic assessment I've seen in a bit.




Thank you, thank you  
:bowing:



;D


----------



## Edward Campbell

This article from _Time_ suggests that pressure is mounting on Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott to refuse to seat Russia or, at least, Vladimir Putin at the November G20 meeting which Australia is hosting. Some experts question whether the host nation can refuse to seat a delegation, and maybe they're right, but a nation can refuse entry to an individual, like Putin, no matter who (s)he is.

I think isolating Russia/Putin is a good move, for a whole host of reasons, the Ukrainian imbroglio being just one.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Doesn't happen often, but here's the resolution the U.N. Security Council passed _unanimously_ today:


> .... Resolution
> 
> The full text of resolution 2166 (2014) reads as follows:
> 
> “The Security Council,
> 
> “Deploring the downing of a civilian aircraft on an international flight, Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, on 17 July in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, with the loss of all 298 passengers and crew on board,
> 
> “Reaffirming the rules of international law that prohibit acts of violence that pose a threat to the safety of international civil aviation and emphasizing the importance of holding those responsible for violations of these rules to account,
> 
> “Recalling its press statement of 18 July 2014,
> 
> “Stressing the need for a full, thorough and independent international investigation into the incident in accordance with international civil aviation guidelines, noting in this regard the crucial role played by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in aircraft accident and incident investigations, and welcoming the decision by ICAO to send a team to work in coordination with the Ukrainian National Bureau of Incidents and Accidents Investigation of Civil Aircraft in this investigation, following a request for assistance by Ukraine to ICAO and others,
> 
> “Expressing serious concern that armed groups in Ukraine have impeded immediate, safe, secure and unrestricted access to the crash site and the surrounding area for the appropriate investigating authorities, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine and representatives of other relevant international organizations assisting the investigation in accordance with ICAO and other established procedures,
> 
> “1.   Condemns in the strongest terms the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 on 17 July in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine resulting in the tragic loss of 298 lives;
> 
> “2.   Reiterates its deepest sympathies and condolences to the families of the victims of this incident and to the people and governments of the victims’ countries of origin;
> 
> “3.   Supports efforts to establish a full, thorough and independent international investigation into the incident in accordance with international civil aviation guidelines;
> 
> “4.   Recognizes the efforts under way by Ukraine, working in coordination with ICAO and other international experts and organizations, including representatives of States of Occurrence, Registry, Operator, Design and Manufacture, as well as States who have lost nationals on MH17, to institute an international investigation of the incident, and calls on all States to provide any requested assistance to civil and criminal investigations related to this incident;
> 
> “5.   Expresses grave concern at reports of insufficient and limited access to the crash site;
> 
> “6.   Demands that the armed groups in control of the crash site and the surrounding area refrain from any actions that may compromise the integrity of the crash site, including by refraining from destroying, moving, or disturbing wreckage, equipment, debris, personal belongings, or remains, and immediately provide safe, secure, full and unrestricted access to the site and surrounding area for the appropriate investigating authorities, the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission and representatives of other relevant international organizations according to ICAO and other established procedures;
> 
> “7.   Demands that all military activities, including by armed groups, be immediately ceased in the immediate area surrounding the crash site to allow for security and safety of the international investigation;
> 
> “8.   Insists on the dignified, respectful and professional treatment and recovery of the bodies of the victims, and calls upon all parties to ensure that this happens with immediate effect;
> 
> “9.   Calls on all States and actors in the region to cooperate fully in relation to the international investigation of the incident, including with respect to immediate and unrestricted access to the crash site as referred to in paragraph 6;
> 
> “10.  Welcomes in this regard the statement on 17 July 2014 by the Trilateral Contact Group of senior representatives of Ukraine, the Russian Federation and the OSCE and demands that the commitments outlined in that statement be implemented in full;
> 
> “11.  Demands that those responsible for this incident be held to account and that all States cooperate fully with efforts to establish accountability;
> 
> “12.  Urges all parties to the Convention on International Civil Aviation to observe to the fullest extent applicable, the international rules, standards and practices concerning the safety of civil aviation, in order to prevent the recurrence of such incidents, and demands that all States and other actors refrain from acts of violence directed against civilian aircraft;
> 
> “13.  Welcomes the full cooperation of the United Nations offered by the Secretary-General in this investigation, and requests the Secretary-General to identify possible options for United Nations support to the investigation and to report to the Security Council on relevant developments;
> 
> “14.  Decides to remain seized of the matter.” ....



Here's what Canada had to say:


> .... GUILLERMO RISHCHYNSKI (Canada), welcoming the 17 July statement by the Trilateral Contact Group, said, however, that declarations were not enough.  The Russian Federation and pro-Russian militants must match words with deeds and cooperate fully with the investigation.  Pointing to President Putin’s continued support for the armed groups in the area, he said that the President had the ability to end the conflict by ending his support to pro-Russian forces and the build-up of troops on the Ukrainian border, as well as by withdrawing his troops from Crimea and using his country’s “considerable influence” to broker a ceasefire ....


----------



## Edward Campbell

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Derek Burney and Fen Hampson, both pretty season foreign policy types, offer their assessment and prescriptions in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the _Globe and Mail_:
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/seven-steps-the-west-must-take-to-counter-putin/article19688320/#dashboard/follows/
> My, colour coded and in larger text, comments are added
> 
> 
> 
> ...
> - direct military supplies for Ukraine to balance what Russia is providing the pseudo-separatists; the U.S. has the capacity. The naval ships France wants to sell to Russia should be purchased by NATO;
> Not sure about the utility of adding arms, but agree about the French ships. Q: who pays?[/siz]
> ...
Click to expand...



More on this in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the _Financial Times_:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/36d15660-1163-11e4-a17a-00144feabdc0.html#axzz380Qzv9iv


> [size=14pt]Row erupts over French warship ahead of European sanctions talks





> By Hugh Carnegy in Paris and Peter Spiegel in Brussels
> 
> July 22, 2014
> 
> A dispute over two warships France is building for Russia is threatening to overshadow a high-stakes meeting of EU foreign ministers that is expected to discuss toughening sanctions against Moscow following the downing of a Malaysian airline which left 298 dead.
> 
> President François Hollande said on Monday that France will go ahead with the supply of a helicopter assault ship to Russia later this year but in an apparent concession to critics added that the delivery of a second vessel under the controversial €1.2bn contract would depend on Moscow’s attitude to the conflict in Ukraine.
> 
> It was the first sign that Mr Hollande may be bowing to pressure from the US and other Nato allies to at least suspend the contract since the shooting down of the Flight MH17 jet last week. Although Washington has been pressing for months for the deal to be halted, until now Paris has insisted it must honour the contract and 400 Russian sailors have been training to operate the ship at a western French port for three weeks.
> 
> A group of hardline countries, led by the UK but including Poland and the Baltic countries, said they would push for tougher sanctions against the Kremlin, including an arms embargo at a summit of European foreign ministers in Brussels on Tuesday.
> 
> Carl Bildt, the hardline Swedish foreign minister, also called for an arms embargo upon arriving in Brussels and, while he did not mention the Mistral deal specifically, said: “To deliver arms in this situation is somewhat difficult to defend, to put it mildly.”
> 
> Heading into the meeting, both the Latvian and Lithuanian foreign ministers chided Paris for failing to scupper the contract and said they would push for the Mistral-class ships to be included in a new arms embargo.
> 
> “It is very difficult to explain to our own public, and also now to publics in other European countries, that we are selling ships, but not only ships, but also other kinds of military technology, to the country that has been behind . . . providing anti-aircraft missiles to terrorists and separatists,” said Edgars Rinkevics, the Latvian minister. “That has to stop.”
> 
> Linas Linkevicius, his Lithuanian counterpart, added: “It is not logical we’re not doing [an arms embargo] with a country we’re accusing of conducting aggression. There are some deals we can explain economically, but we cannot understand [the Mistral contract].”
> 
> David Cameron, the British prime minister, told his parliament on Monday that it was “unthinkable” the UK would go ahead with such a contract.
> 
> In Ukraine, meanwhile, a train carrying the remains of people killed in the Malaysia Airlines crash arrived in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv on Wednesday on their way to the Netherlands. Meanwhile, pro-Russian rebels in have handed over two flight-data recorders from the downed MH17 plane to Malaysian experts.
> 
> Mr Hollande told reporters on Monday night that the first Mistral class ship built under the sale concluded in 2011 under former President Nicolas Sarkozy was “almost ready and should be delivered in October”, according to the news agency AFP and other French media.
> 
> “The Russians have paid. We would have to repay €1.1bn” if the first ship, called the Vladivostok, was not delivered, Mr Hollande was reported as saying. About 400 Russian sailors have been in France since last month training on the Vladivostok, which has been undergoing sea trials.
> 
> But asked if the rest of the contract would be honoured, Mr Hollande said: “That depends on the attitude of Russia. But at this stage, there are no sanctions imposed that would oblige us to renounce [the contract].”
> He said if sanctions covering military contracts were decided by the EU, they would only affect future sales, something British diplomats have been arguing as a way to win French support.
> 
> The second Mistral, called Sevastopol and set to join the Russian Black Sea fleet based in Crimea, is due to be delivered next year.
> 
> The contract supports 1,000 jobs in France’s shipbuilding and defence industries and Paris has been reluctant to reverse the deal, which would expose it to costly penalties.
> 
> French officials also play down the military significance of the ships and the impact of the cancellation of the deal on Moscow.
> 
> One official said the ships were being supplied unarmed and were “not sophisticated”.
> 
> Paris has also argued that an arms embargo would unfairly hit France while leaving other EU economies relatively unscathed. A French official said UK sanctions on Russian business interests in London would be “much more important financially and economically” against Moscow, citing Chelsea football club, owned by Roman Abramovich, the Russian oligarch.
> 
> “If Mr Cameron wants to sanction Russia, he would do better to sanction Chelsea and support Paris Saint-Germain instead,” he said.
> 
> But François Heisbourg, special adviser at the Foundation for Strategic Studies in Paris, said the French position could change. “The notion that the ships were deliverable was already questionable. [The Malaysian airliner incident] makes them undeliverable morally, politically and increasingly economically,” he said.
> 
> Mr Heisbourg said a greater threat would be the potential loss to France of future contracts from fellow Nato members, especially Poland, which has a €20bn military investment programme in the coming years.
> 
> Catherine Ashton, the EU’s foreign policy chief who will be chairing today’s meeting of foreign ministers, said she believed ministers would “go forward” with new sanctions, but hinted they may not go further than measures agreed before the downing of Flight MH17.
> 
> She added ministers would likely be guided by Frans Timmermans, the Dutch foreign minister. Dutch diplomats have raised concerns that precipitous actions against Moscow may make it more difficult to repatriate the accident victims and gain access to the crash site for a thorough investigation.
> 
> “They will be guided in that in terms of timing and so on very much by what the Dutch foreign minister asks us to do because getting the people home, getting the inquiry started is absolutely at the top of our agenda,” said Lady Ashton upon arriving for the meeting.
> 
> The near 200 metre-long Mistral assault ship can carry 16 heavy helicopters, as well as armoured vehicles and 450 troops. The sale to Moscow was first agreed in 2008 after Russia’s invasion of South Ossetia in Georgia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Vladivostok Mistral warship leaves a shipyard in Saint-Nazaire, western France
> 
> A Russian general was quoted as saying that if Moscow had possessed a Mistral at the time it could have completed the South Ossetia operation in “40 minutes instead of 26 hours”.




One can understand why France might be unwilling to pay, all alone, a €1.1 Billion price to satisfy Europe's the West's desire to "do something."


----------



## The Bread Guy

A few more tidbits:

INITIAL REPORTS ONLY:  _"Three servicemen and a driver were killed when a minibus exploded at a checkpoint as clashes between pro-Russian separatists and government troops in the country’s eastern regions continue.  A suicide attack is one of several scenarios under investigation for the incident near Kamyanka, a village in the Donetsk region, according to the Defense Ministry. Other versions for the blast, which happened yesterday evening, include a radio-controlled vehicle, ministry spokesman Vladyslav Seleznyov said today by phone ...."_ (Bloomberg News) - UKR media report in Russian here
OSCE extending UKR monitoring mission into March 2015 (OSCE news release)
_"MH17 bodies expected tomorrow (23 July), IDs could take months: Dutch PM"_
One way the UK is twisting Russia's arm:  _"Secretary of State for the Home Department (Theresa May):  I am announcing today the government’s decision to establish an inquiry under the Inquiries Act 2005 to investigate the death of Mr. Alexander Litvinenko in November 2006. The (public) inquiry will be established by the Home Office. The inquiry will be chaired by Sir Robert Owen, a senior judge who is the current Coroner in the Inquest into Mr. Litvinenko’s death ...."_ (UK Home Office announcement) - more from BBC - more Litwinenko backstory (usual Wikipedia caveats apply) here and here


----------



## pbi

> ...The contract supports 1,000 jobs in France’s shipbuilding and defence industries and Paris has been reluctant to reverse the deal, which would expose it to costly penalties...



Never, ever underestimate the power of domestic politics to drive foreign policies. especially where voters' jobs are concerned.

Ahh, the French...always doing just exactly what they want to. No wonder they make the US so angry.


----------



## Kirkhill

I fail to understand the position on the Mistral deal.

In my view, if France, a sovereign nation, has determined that Russia has transgressed the world order, surely it is within its rights to impose whatever sanctions it sees fit?  That, of a certainty, could include the Mistrals.  No compensation need be paid.

If a local grow op is seized by the police no one supplies the miscreants with compensation for the seizure.   It is a punishment.  It is meant to punish.  It is meant to hurt.

Vlad understands this principle well enough.  He has applied it often enough himself.  Both domestically, with businesses owned by Russian and foreign nationals, and abroad when countries, like the Ukraine, act in ways that don't appeal to him*.

The correct French response is simply to send the Russian sailors home immediately.  Transfer the Vladivostok into the French Navy.  Tell Vlad he isn't getting the ship or any more like it, or any other French military technology and pound sand.  

The only reasons I can see for France not adopting this course of action are:

A) France is no longer a sovereign nation and really believes it has to wait for the EU to tell it what to do on this matter
B) M. Hollande does not have the strength of his convictions (or perhaps doesn't have convictions to start with)
C) This sale has never been about the ships from the beginning but is a continuation of the concerns that kept the French armament industry isolated for decades from British and US technology.  It was considered an unreliable partner and was essentially a conduit for western technology to enemy states.  Russia and Argentina come to mind.

*Russia seizes 20 BUSD Shell gas project

Edit to add this piece from the Financial Post.

It addresses not just Vlad's predilection for making up rules as he goes along but also the impact of sanctions on various oligarchs.

(side note - I do wish that people would show facts as they are and not as they wish them.  The accompanying graphic in the article is a disgrace and is more a propaganda piece than a fair representation.  Using two scales, one for total worth and one for losses, over-estimates the effects of the sanctions).


----------



## Edward Campbell

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> ...
> 
> The only reasons I can see for France not adopting this course of action are:
> 
> A) France is no longer a sovereign nation and really believes it has to wait for the EU to tell it what to do on this matter
> B) M. Hollande does not have the strength of his convictions (or perhaps doesn't have convictions to start with)
> C) This sale has never been about the ships from the beginning but is a continuation of the concerns that kept the French armament industry isolated for decades from British and US technology.  It was considered an unreliable partner and was essentially a conduit for western technology to enemy states.  Russia and Argentina come to mind.
> 
> ...



M. Hollande is French, is he not? So why expect convictions?


----------



## Kirkhill

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> M. Hollande is French, is he not? So why expect convictions?



Bien dites, Monsieur.


----------



## The Bread Guy

1)  Latest UKR government map (22 Jul) attached (source)

2)  A touch of (optimistic?) analysis of some before-and-after mapping over two months:


> .... Put your JPME to good work there shipmate. Look at what has happened in the last two months.
> 1. Ukraine secured its maritime territory.
> 2. Ukraine managed to re-establish control over most of its borders  - though in a thin salient in some places. Not firm control as we know traffic is getting through, but at least partial control to the point they are willing to claim it.
> 3. They are pushing to widen the salient in the south while increasing its SE bulge, pushing north along the Russian border.
> 4. From the north, they are pushing south along the Russian border.
> 5. Yes kiddies, we have a classic pincer movement to envelope a pocket of the enemy, nee - a double envelopment at that. As a matter of fact, a secondary double envelopment is about to take place in that middle thumb centered on Lysychansk - or at least there is an opportunity for one.
> 
> Cut off the Lysychansk based separatists there while at the same time cutting off their unopposed access to the Russian border - and then you can destroy the pro-Russian separatists piecemeal at your leisure ....


Map this is based on:


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> .... what RUS's Ministry of Defence is sharing about what they say they saw (in Russian) ....


Official English translation now available - see attached if link above (scroll down for English version) doesn't work.


----------



## Edward Campbell

_Reuters_ suggests  that France will go ahead with the delivery of the _Mistral_ and that the government's dcision, which involves thumbing's France's nose at America and Britain, is very popular with the public.


----------



## vonGarvin

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> _Reuters_ suggests  that France will go ahead with the delivery of the _Mistral_ and that the government's dcision, which involves thumbing's France's nose at America and Britain, is very popular with the public.



If I'm not mistaken, France and Russia have a very close relationship, no?  I think back to 1914, in general.  But also think back to the thing about Mitteleuropa, and Germany being the hub to a strong European economy.  So, could this have more to do with opposition to the Herrenvolk and less to do with thumbing noses at the USA and the UK?


----------



## Kirkhill

http://www.rms-republic.com/reference/43Ananich160.pdf

An interesting piece on Franco-Russian financial relations from the 19th century.  Russia was to France as the US was to the UK:  a market and an investment opportunity.  Leading to the Entente Cordiale.  (Germany was heading towards the Ottomans at the time).

White Russian aristocracy found refuge in France after the Russian Revolution.  French Socialists (comme M. Hollande) have always been tight with Moscow.  

There have been concerns raised about NATO and the easterners.  France has always been a worry to NATO.  It wanted to be with NATO when it suited it but not of it.  That suited both de Gaulle and the Socialists.  France still doesn't qualify as a "team player" and shouldn't be allowed anywhere near western technology.


----------



## cupper

The US has released some of the "intelligence" which points to the Russian Separatists as the guilty party and by extension the culpability of the Russian Government.

*U.S. discloses intelligence on downing of Malaysian jet* 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-discloses-intelligence-on-downing-of-malaysian-jet/2014/07/22/b178fe58-11e1-11e4-98ee-daea85133bc9_story.html?hpid=z1



> The Obama administration, detailing what it called evidence of Russian complicity in the downing of a Malaysian airliner, on Tuesday released satellite images and other sensitive intelligence that officials say show Moscow had trained and equipped rebels in Ukraine responsible for the attack.
> 
> Senior U.S. intelligence officials cited sensors that traced the path of the missile, shrapnel markings on the downed aircraft, voiceprint analysis of separatists claiming credit for the strike, and a flood of photos and other data from social-media sites.
> 
> The officials also for the first time identified a sprawling Russian military installation near the city of Rostov as the main conduit of Russian support to separatists in Ukraine, describing it as a hub of training and weapons that has expanded dramatically over the past month. The officials said that tanks, rocket launchers and other arms have continued to flow into Ukraine even after the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, which killed 298 civilians.
> 
> Analysts at the CIA and other U.S. intelligence agencies are continuing to examine information about the crash, but U.S. officials said the intelligence assembled in the five days since the attack points overwhelmingly to Russian-backed separatists in territory they control in eastern Ukraine.
> 
> Senior U.S. intelligence officials said they have ruled out the possibility that Ukrainian forces were responsible for the attack.
> 
> “That is not a plausible scenario,” said one senior U.S. official, who noted that American intelligence agencies have confirmed that Ukraine had no antiaircraft missile system within range of the Malaysian flight at the time it was struck.
> 
> The official was one of three senior U.S. intelligence officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity during a briefing arranged for reporters in Washington to provide more detailed information on the assertions made by administration officials in recent days, as well as to rebut Russian claims.
> 
> “We are seeing a full-court press by the Russian government to instruct affiliated or friendly elements to manipulate the media environment to spread Russia’s version of the story,” the official said. “What this looks like again is a classic case of blaming the victims.”
> 
> The U.S. intelligence officials, who included experts on Russia’s military and its relationship with separatists in Ukraine, said they do not know the identities or even the nationalities — whether Russian or possibly defectors from Ukraine’s military — of those who launched the missile from an SA-11 surface-to-air battery.
> 
> Nor have U.S. spy agencies reached any conclusions on the motive for the attack, except to say that the reaction among separatists recorded on social media indicates they believed they were targeting a Ukrainian military transport plane.
> 
> In part, officials said, that may have been because the rebels operating the missile battery were poorly trained and did not have access to other radar systems and equipment that ordinarily accompany an SA-11 system and are designed to help distinguish military targets from civilian planes.
> 
> U.S. officials said earlier that they had seen “indications” of advanced antiaircraft systems being moved into eastern Ukraine from Russia and being removed after the jet was shot down.
> 
> Images claim to show the movements of a surface-to-air missile launcher and the build up of Russian military activity across the border.
> 
> Intelligence officials said spy agencies were not aware that an SA-11 system was in eastern Ukraine until the attack had happened. They declined to answer questions about whether warnings about the Russian military buildup over the past month had been shared with international aviation authorities.
> 
> The officials also declined to provide more details on the satellites and other sophisticated sensors that enabled them to trace the path of the missile, citing concerns about compromising secret U.S. capabilities.
> 
> Still, the administration released information that had been kept secret until Tuesday, providing the most explicit illustration to date of the extent to which it has mobilized intelligence resources to track the conflict in Ukraine.
> 
> In particular, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released images taken of the Russian military facility near Rostov over the span of a month, before-and-after slides that officials said showed a substantial buildup after Russia had pledged to pull back from Ukraine.
> 
> Russia has gone to significant lengths to disguise that flow of weaponry, the officials said, by delivering equipment that matches the inventory of Ukraine’s military. In some cases, the officials said, Russia appears to have pulled aging and inactive tanks out of storage because shipping newer ones would make it obvious that Russian arms were flowing into Ukraine.
> 
> “We think they’re continuing to do it” in the aftermath of the strike on the Malaysian aircraft, one of the intelligence officials said.
> 
> Russia appears to have “felt compelled to increase the level of support” for separatists, the official said,because Ukraine’s military has become increasingly effective against the rebels, retaking the city of Slovyansk.
> 
> In recent days, the Ukrainian government has posted online what it has described as incriminating communications among rebel leaders and units, calls and radio transmissions apparently intercepted by Kiev.
> 
> The U.S. officials said they have confirmed the authenticity of some of those recordings, including one in which the self-proclaimed defense minister of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Igor Strelkov, claimed responsibility for shooting down a military transport plane at the time the Malaysian aircraft was struck.
> 
> Analysis comparing that audio clip to other confirmed recordings of Strelkov’s voice “confirmed these were authentic conversations,” one of the officials said.
> 
> The officials noted that separatists had shot down aircraft on about a dozen other occasions over the past month — mostly helicopters and Ukraine military planes flying far below the 33,000-foot altitude at which the Malaysian flight was hit. Ukraine’s military, by contrast, is focused on the ground threat posed by separatists and has yet to fire on an aircraft, the officials said.
> 
> U.S. intelligence analysts have examined photos from the crash site and identified damage consistent with that caused by an SA-11 missile, officials said, but they stressed that such analysis is preliminary.
> 
> The briefing also revealed the extent to which U.S. spy agencies are relying on Twitter, Facebook and other social-media sites to monitor the conflict. The officials cited verbal exchanges among rebels posted on YouTube indicating separatists arriving at the scene of the wreckage were surprised to discover civilians.
> 
> “If you listen to YouTube you get that: ‘We’re finding civilians,’ ” a senior U.S. intelligence official said. Partly for that reason, the official said, “the most plausible explanation to me is [it was] a mistake.”



I have to question one point in the article, the portion I highlighted in yellow.

I recall that there was an interview over the weekend with a senior administration official (possibly John Kerry) who said that they monitored the heat bloom of the missile launch on one of the satellites over that portion of Eastern Europe, and that this was definitive evidence that the launch came from rebel controlled territory.


----------



## McG

> *Crash conspiracies dominate Russian headlines*
> Laura Mills, Associated Press
> CTV News
> 22 Jul 2014
> 
> MOSCOW -- An assassination attempt against Russian President Vladimir Putin. A desperate ploy to draw the West into the battle for Ukraine's east. A botched mission to commit mass murder against Russian citizens.
> 
> Russian news consumers are getting plenty of explanations for the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, which killed 298 people. While they vary wildly in content, all point the finger at Ukraine. None admits the possibility that Russia may bear responsibility.
> 
> The story of the airline tragedy that is unfolding for Russians differs starkly from the one that people are following in the West. As U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry told American TV viewers that rebels shot down the plane with Russian weaponry, Russians were being fed a diet of scenarios about forces in Ukraine conspiring to commit an atrocity in the skies.
> 
> Yekaterina Andreyeva, one of Russia's most famous TV anchors, delved into one theory hours after news of the crash broke: Putin, travelling home from Brazil, passed along the same flight path as the Malaysian passenger jet less than one hour before it was hit -- suggesting an assassination attempt.
> 
> By Friday morning, the assassination theory was replaced by other scenarios.
> 
> One focused on the Buk missile launcher that Ukraine says brought down the plane. State-owned Rossiya TV pinned blame on Kyiv by saying the rebels did not own one, while Ukraine recently deployed a Buk launcher to the area. An Associated Press journalist saw a Buk launcher -- which rebels have bragged about owning in social media -- in rebel-held territory near the crash site hours before the plane was brought down.
> 
> Rossiya further said that the red, white, and blue of the Malaysia Airlines logo "resembles the Russian tricolour" -- hinting at a Ukrainian attempt to blow up a Russian passenger jet.
> 
> Komsomolskaya Pravda, Russia's most-read tabloid, took another tack. It claimed that Ukrainian air traffic controllers redirected the Malaysia Airlines plane to fly directly over the conflict zone, publishing pictures from flight-tracking websites that appeared to show fluctuations in the plane's route.
> 
> Russia media have suggested that Ukrainian authorities orchestrated the downing to make it look like a rebel attack, in hopes it would be the catalyst for luring Western powers into military intervention.
> 
> Russian state-controlled television, which is where a majority of Russians get their news, tends to toe the official line and abrupt changes in language on the air can reflect changes in Kremlin strategy. In June, Putin began soft-pedaling his rhetoric on Ukraine after recognizing May 25 presidential elections, in an apparent attempt to stave off Western sanctions.
> 
> After the airline tragedy, Putin led the shift to a more aggressive tone.
> 
> "This tragedy would not have happened if there were peace on this land, if the military actions had not been renewed in southeast Ukraine," Putin said. "And, certainly, the state over whose territory this occurred bears responsibility for this awful tragedy."
> 
> Outrage has grown in the West over what appears to be a bungled start to the investigation. Rebels allowed a group of monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe only a superficial inspection of the crash site on Saturday before firing warning shots when two Ukrainian members of the group attempted to study wreckage.
> 
> In Russia, meanwhile, news reports repeat that the rebels have been co-operating with the observers -- and blame Kyiv for stalling the arrival of international investigators.
> 
> "Yesterday the OSCE group worked in the field all day at the scene of the plane crash," First Channel's Sunday broadcast began. "So far the Ukrainian authorities do not want to send a group of international specialists to Donetsk."


We have missiles!  We shot down the enemy!  No; we did not shoot anything.  There was no missile.  It was the enemy's missile .... they were trying to kill or president.

I think somebody has found himself a new employer.


----------



## The Bread Guy

cupper said:
			
		

> The US has released some of the "intelligence" which points to the Russian Separatists as the guilty party and by extension the culpability of the Russian Government.
> 
> *U.S. discloses intelligence on downing of Malaysian jet*
> 
> http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-discloses-intelligence-on-downing-of-malaysian-jet/2014/07/22/b178fe58-11e1-11e4-98ee-daea85133bc9_story.html?hpid=z1



Some other coverage of the same news conference:

_"Senior U.S. intelligence officials said Tuesday that Russia was responsible for "creating the conditions" that led to the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, but they offered no evidence of direct Russian government involvement ...."_  (Associated Press)
_"Malaysian flight MH17 may have been shot down by "mistake" by ill-trained pro-Russian separatists, US intelligence officials said Tuesday, while dismissing Moscow's accounts of the incident ...."_  (Agence France-Presse)
_"Rebels likely downed Malaysian jet 'by mistake' - US officials"_ (Reuters)


----------



## ringo

I'd like to see the Mistral's in RCN, HMCS Vimy Ridge HMCS Juno Beach, if France proceeds with sale of Mistrals to Russia Canada should prohibit France from competing in future CAF procurement programs.


----------



## GR66

The CBC is reporting that the pro-Russian rebels have shot down a pair of Ukraine Su-25s:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/2-ukraine-fighter-jets-shot-down-by-pro-russian-rebels-1.2715224


----------



## wannabe SF member

ringo said:
			
		

> I'd like to see the Mistral's in RCN, HMCS Vimy Ridge HMCS Juno Beach, if France proceeds with sale of Mistrals to Russia Canada should prohibit France from competing in future CAF procurement programs.



Sure, let'S impose sanctions on France when we are about to sign a Free Trade Agreement with the EU. That wouldn't be seen as an extremely hostile economic move and a cynical attempt to clamp down on foreign competition. No Sir!

Also, where would we find the money to buy and operate a frigging Helicopter Carrier??


----------



## GAP

Inky said:
			
		

> Also, where would we find the money to buy and operate a frigging Helicopter Carrier??



Tonka has a great line.....maybe they would consider scaling their's up a bit.......



 ;D


----------



## dapaterson

Inky said:
			
		

> Also, where would we find the money to buy and operate a frigging Helicopter Carrier??



Well, there's at least one AOR that won't be doing much - those operating costs could be redirected to a Helicopter Carrier.

And I'm certain some other savings could be identified as well - if this was a priority.


----------



## Oldgateboatdriver

Inky said:
			
		

> Also, where would we find the money to buy and operate a frigging Helicopter Carrier??



Actually, operating a Mistral is a lot cheaper than operating a frigate or a destroyer ... and it just so happen that we have a destroyer stuck in harbour with cracks in the hull problems. Just saying.

Vimy Ridge was a pure land battle, as great as it was. My preference would be HMCS DIEPPE and HMCS JUNO (no need to specify beach): Two amphibious (or as they called them then "combined") operations, one a great success the other a disaster but both reminding their users what is at stake by their very name.


----------



## KerryBlue

> *Russia led missile attack on Malaysia plane*
> 
> Ukrainian officials said “irrefutable evidence” proves that Russia’s military operated the missile system that blew a Malaysia Airlines jet from the sky, killing 298 people.
> 
> “This terrorist act was committed with the help of the Russian Federation. We know clearly that the crew of this system were Russian citizens,” Vitaly Naida, Ukraine’s chief of counterintelligence, told reporters on Saturday.



http://nypost.com/2014/07/20/how-the-russians-led-the-missile-strike-that-downed-flight-mh17/



The evidence they display here doesn't really seem to me all that irrefutable. But I'm sure there is more to this story then the press is reporting.


----------



## sandyson

The destruction of the civil airliner was probably not intentional but rather a simple error in war. Eastern Ukraine would be smarter just to admit it and move on. Both the US and USSR did in the case of their 'accidents'. What I find significant is that the East has such sophisticated weapons. They must be at least very well trusted by Russia. I stretch this to say that Western Ukraine cannot remove the Eastern government and NATO has no interest in a war with Russia. So, East of the Dnieper has been lost. Is it time to redraw the map or wait and see if Putin intends to take all of Ukraine? He has played a very good hand of international poker and at relatively low cost.


----------



## daftandbarmy

sandyson said:
			
		

> The destruction of the civil airliner was probably not intentional but rather a simple error in war. Eastern Ukraine would be smarter just to admit it and move on. Both the US and USSR did in the case of their 'accidents'. What I find significant is that the East has such sophisticated weapons. They must be at least very well trusted by Russia. I stretch this to say that Western Ukraine cannot remove the Eastern government and NATO has no interest in a war with Russia. So, East of the Dnieper has been lost. Is it time to redraw the map or wait and see if Putin intends to take all of Ukraine? He has played a very good hand of international poker and at relatively low cost.



And he has taken advantage of the Appeasers:

“An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last.” 

― Winston Churchill


----------



## The Bread Guy

sandyson said:
			
		

> What I find significant is that the East has such sophisticated weapons.


Keep in mind:
1)  Some of the weapons in eastern hands used to be Ukrainian military weapons.
2)  Some hardware Russia used/uses was built in Ukraine, so it's not entirely without capacity here.


----------



## The Bread Guy

And here's the latest map from the Ukrainian government - I don't see a lot of shrinkage in the size of the brown "thumbs up fist" in the east there ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Bumped with Canada's latest reassurance measure ....


> Minister Nicholson will announce the immediate deployment of Her Majesty’s Canadian Ship (HMCS) Toronto to join NATO Reassurance measures in the Mediterranean.
> 
> Media are invited to attend the departure ceremony for HMCS Toronto as the ship sets sail for the Mediterranean Sea. There will be no media availability.
> 
> HMCS Toronto will be replacing HMCS Regina, which has been part of Standing NATO Maritime Forces since May 2014.
> 
> When: Thursday, July 24th, 2014 at 10:00 a.m.
> 
> Where: Canadian Forces Base Halifax Dockyard ....



More on OP Reassurance here


----------



## wannabe SF member

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> And here's the latest map from the Ukrainian government - I don't see a lot of shrinkage in the size of the brown "thumbs up fist" in the east there ....



I find it very interesting that this map now shows Russian MLRSs firing from the Russian border. Scary is the fact that several Ukrainian Units are still pocketed in between the Russian border and the Rebel area. The push to cut-off the rebels from Russian territory and supplies earlier in the month is turning out to be a disaster.

When the smoke clears, the number of confirmed casualties on the Ukrainian side will mount very quickly, especially if those remaining units don't break out.


----------



## vonGarvin

In Kyiv, the world was outraged by the violence that killed a few dozen protestors.  Now the Ukrainian army shells cities with impunity.  If one side were all saints and the other side all sinners, then I'd concur. 

I don't concur for very obvious reasons. 

As an aside, I see that the Ukrainians have resorted to branding their enemy not as rebels or separatists, but as terrorists. 

As an even further aside, the place names remind me of the battles fought there circa 1941 - 1943.


----------



## KerryBlue

General Disorder said:
			
		

> In Kyiv, the world was outraged by the violence that killed a few dozen protestors.  Now the Ukrainian army shells cities with impunity.  If one side were all saints and the other side all sinners, then I'd concur.
> 
> As an aside, I see that the Ukrainians have resorted to branding their enemy not as rebels or separatists, but as terrorists.



Unarmed protestors being beaten, shot and killed in the streets by the pro-Russian government who broke promises to make some movements towards the EU, versus armed men who are shooting down military air craft, talking over an entire region and engaging in warfare with the Ukrainian military all while being back and supported by Russia. 

At least in Kyiv all the different groups of the Maidan were united over one central ideal, where it seems in the east all the individual separatist are just fighting for the sake of either fighting or hoping to draw in Russia to flatten Ukraine.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest UKR sitrep map attached


----------



## wannabe SF member

KerryBlue said:
			
		

> Unarmed protestors being beaten, shot and killed in the streets by the pro-Russian government who broke promises to make some movements towards the EU, versus armed men who are shooting down military air craft, talking over an entire region and engaging in warfare with the Ukrainian military all while being back and supported by Russia.
> 
> At least in Kyiv all the different groups of the Maidan were united over one central ideal, where it seems in the east all the individual separatist are just fighting for the sake of either fighting or hoping to draw in Russia to flatten Ukraine.



The killing of protesters did not start after quite a few weeks of Maidanists running roughshod over the security and forces in Kiev. I'll also remind you that quite a few police died in that event. Also, we don't actually know who shot those protesters.

The rebels in the east thought that if a bunch of disgruntled pro European rioters could impose their political will on the country, they might as well do the same in their corner of the country. One thing's for sure, a lot more civilians have died at the hands of the Maidan controlled Army than during the protests.

I see very little legitimacy on any side of the conflict but the hypocrisy present in Western media in how we deal with the Maidan Regime and the propaganda suggesting that the current Ukrainian government is legitimate and democratic is starting to be quite frustrating.  

The Maidan were only united in their hatred of Yanukovych (and by extension, the russian speaking east) and their will to depose a President who was not willing to accede to Western Ukrainian ambition even if he was clearly elected by the East of the country.

The whole thing was a mob imposed coup and it smells of S**t through and through

Edit: Coup might not be the best term in this situation, rather, we<re talking about a mob imposed regime change


----------



## vonGarvin

KerryBlue said:
			
		

> Unarmed protestors being beaten, shot and killed in the streets by the pro-Russian government who broke promises to make some movements towards the EU, versus armed men who are shooting down military air craft, talking over an entire region and engaging in warfare with the Ukrainian military all while being back and supported by Russia.
> 
> At least in Kyiv all the different groups of the Maidan were united over one central ideal, where it seems in the east all the individual separatist are just fighting for the sake of either fighting or hoping to draw in Russia to flatten Ukraine.



This is exactly what I mean.  Both sides can use such blatant over simplification to justify their actions.  To wit:

Police officer beaten down by "unarmed" and "peaceful" protesters at Maidan:






Photo of an armed man who was trying to flatten Ukraine:






Don't kid yourself.  There are no saints on either side.  Maidan was no more peaceful nor justified than those in the east of Ukraine right now.  

PS: If a government breaking a promise is justification for a coup d'état, then why don't they happen here?


----------



## KerryBlue

Inky said:
			
		

> The killing of protesters did not start after quite a few weeks of Maidanists running roughshod over the security and forces in Kiev. I'll also remind you that quite a few police died in that event. Also, we don't actually know who shot those protesters.



I'll remind you that the Maidan protestors only became violent and grew after November 30th. When the Berkut attacked the protestors in an attempt to clear them out of the square they were peacefully occupying. But I concur neither side was innocent in these riots, however it would seem that Berkut overstepped and became to violent. I'm sure you saw the video's and pictures of the square.



			
				Inky said:
			
		

> The rebels in the east thought that if a bunch of disgruntled pro European rioters could impose their political will on the country, they might as well do the same in their corner of the country. One thing's for sure, a lot more civilians have died at the hands of the Maidan controlled Army than during the protests.



Granted, but look at the way the Eastern separatists are going about trying to impose there political will. With assault weapons, stolen armoured vehicles, vehicles and training supplied by Russia, Foreign mercenaries etc.. They are engaging in guerilla warfare in the major cities in the East and as a whole do not have a singular unified ideal which they stand by. Some want regional autonomy, some want the eastern Ukraine to be reabsorbed by Russia and some are simply opportunists looking for a fight. At least the maidan protestors had a single message, get rid of Russian influence in Ukraine and attempt to finally integrate west ward. 



			
				Inky said:
			
		

> I see very little legitimacy on any side of the conflict but the hypocrisy present in Western media in how we deal with the Maidan Regime and the propaganda suggesting that the current Ukrainian government is legitimate and democratic is starting to be quite frustrating.



The current government was democratically voted in to office after the people called for the removal of the old government. Maidan did not physically go in and hang Yanuykovych or force him from power. He fled the country with the rest of his cronies back to mother Russia. The only reason he was elected, and many in the west voted for him was his promise of some EU integration. When he went back on his promise the people had had enough.



			
				Inky said:
			
		

> The Maidan were only united in their hatred of Yanukovych (and by extension, the russian speaking east) and their will to deose a President who was not illing to accede to Western Ukrainian ambition even if he was clearly elected by the East of the country.



The west does not hate the Russian speaking east.... The primary language heard in Kyiv is Russian, not Ukrainian. Many of my friends from Ukraine speak better Russian then Ukrainian. Again see above but Yuschenko was elected by the east because he is from them and the west elected him because he promised to make some movement to the EU.



			
				General Disorder said:
			
		

> This is exactly what I mean.  Both sides can use such blatant over simplification to justify their actions.  To wit:
> 
> Police officer beaten down by "unarmed" and "peaceful" protesters at Maidan:
> 
> Don't kid yourself.  There are no saints on either side.  Maidan was no more peaceful nor justified than those in the east of Ukraine right now.
> 
> PS: If a government breaking a promise is justification for a coup d'état, then why don't they happen here?



Maidan started peacefully, Berkut violently escalated then the protestors escalted. Not debating that either side is innocent or didn't resort to violence. 

The promise of European integration for the younger generations meant a chance to finally live a proper life. A life where if your small business was successful it wouldn't be taken over by the government or mobsters in cahoots with the government. Where after finishing university you could get a good job and pay off your student loans. A world where you didn't need to be the son or daughter of a politician to get a decent paying job. 

Also not like all of Ukraine is calling for Yanukovych to come back, his approval rating is lower the Mayor Fords

http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2014/05/19/7025792/


----------



## Edward Campbell

Inky said:
			
		

> The killing of protesters did not start after quite a few weeks of Maidanists running roughshod over the security and forces in Kiev. I'll also remind you that quite a few police died in that event. Also, we don't actually know who shot those protesters.
> 
> The rebels in the east thought that if a bunch of disgruntled pro European rioters could impose their political will on the country, they might as well do the same in their corner of the country. One thing's for sure, a lot more civilians have died at the hands of the Maidan controlled Army than during the protests.
> 
> I see very little legitimacy on any side of the conflict but the hypocrisy present in Western media in how we deal with the Maidan Regime and the propaganda suggesting that the current Ukrainian government is legitimate and democratic is starting to be quite frustrating.
> 
> The Maidan were only united in their hatred of Yanukovych (and by extension, the russian speaking east) and their will to deose a President who was not illing to accede to Western Ukrainian ambition even if he was clearly elected by the East of the country.
> 
> The whole thing was a mob imposed coup and it smells of S**t through and through




 :goodpost:

I agree, Inky, and that's why I oppose any military intervention for Ukraine and I vehemently oppose adding it to NATO. If the EU wants to offer Ukraine a weak deal, well that's their business.


----------



## The Bread Guy

You'd think this was Italy or Israel - this from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty....


> Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk has resigned after two major partners in his coalition announced their withdrawal to allow President Petro Poroshenko to start the procedure for new parliamentary elections.
> 
> As he announced his resignation on July 24, Yatsenyuk lashed out at lawmakers for failing to pass laws on energy and on a budget increase to fund the armed forces.
> 
> "I announce my resignation due to the coalition break-up and blocking of governmental issues," Yatsenyuk said.
> 
> Yatsenyuk said he could not agree to form a new coalition with the Party of Regions and Communist Party factions in parliament so he had no choice but to leave his post.
> 
> As for the failure of lawmakers to pass legislation on energy and increased spending on the military, Yatsenyuk said, "That is understandable -- who wants to go to elections and simultaneously vote for unpopular laws?"
> 
> Following Yatsenyuk's resignation, parliament speaker Oleksandr Turchynov asked the UDAR and Svoboda parties to nominate a "technical candidate" to fill the prime minister's post "until parliamentary elections are held."
> 
> UDAR, led by former heavyweight boxing champion Vitali Klitschko, and the nationalist Svoboda party were the two parties that pulled out of the coalition earlier in the day ....


Another election - what could possibly go wrong?

Also, this, further west ....


> Britain and its Nato allies will be asked to transform a military base in eastern Europe to help the alliance respond faster to any threat posed by Russia.
> 
> The shift in posture is being proposed by General Philip Breedlove, Nato's top commander in Europe. He plans to recommend placing supplies — weapons, ammunition and ration packs — at the headquarters to enable a sudden influx of thousands of Nato troops to be ready for action in the event of a crisis.
> 
> A number of Nato bases are being considered for the role but the leading contender is Multinational Corps Northeast, in Szczecin, Poland.
> 
> General Breedlove "wants to use an existing headquarters in the Nato structure and focus them fully on the Article 5 mission", an alliance source said, referring to one of the founding principles of Nato — that an attack on one is an attack on all.
> 
> "It would be a 24/7 fully functioning headquarters that forces could quickly fall in on to respond rapidly when needed," the source said. . . .
> 
> The general told a briefing in Naples this week that Nato needed "pre-positioned supplies, pre-positioned capabilities and a basing area ready to rapidly accept follow-on forces. . . ." ....


----------



## Edward Campbell

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> I'm not interested, actually, in who did what to whom or why. I reiterate: this is a very good excuse to put the economic boots to Russia and there is, in my _opinion_ a good, sound _strategic_ reason to want to weaken Russia.
> 
> Russia, as currently structured (since the 18th century), is too big, too powerful, and, potentially, too rich to be a "good neighbour" to Europe. I don't think Germany's dream of a cohesive, German dominated _Mitteleuropa_ can exist with Russia as a baleful, hostile force on its borders. (I also think a German dominated _Mitteleuropa_ is essential for the economic security of all of Europe.) Now would be a good time to use economic and diplomatic tools to destabilize Russia ... most of the actions I would anticipate are broadly legal (albeit not always _fair_), and the ones that aren't would work because Russia has no support in e.g. the WTO.
> 
> I would not care what happens to Far Eastern Russia, but I guess that if the US led West took strong economic action against Russia its control over its Far Eastern regions would weaken more and more and embolden Siberian (Asian) _separatists_.
> 
> It (attacking Russia economically) is a win-win-win, I think, for the US, Europe and China.




Stephen Blank agrees with me, Russia must be punished, in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the _Globe and Mail_:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/if-putin-isnt-punished-europe-risks-a-wider-war/article19736987/#dashboard/follows/


> If Putin isn’t punished, Europe risks a wider war
> 
> STEPHEN BLANK
> Contributed to The Globe and Mail
> 
> Published Thursday, Jul. 24 2014
> 
> _Stephen Blank is a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council._
> 
> The tragic downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 on July 17 by Russian-armed troops provides another occasion for the West to use its superior power to bring Russia’s war in Ukraine to an end. This assertion may sound surprising but nobody denies that the West, if it acts in unison, possesses more than enough power to force Russia to stop its war in Ukraine, withdraw its soldiers who shot down this plane, and move out all of its weapons. Yet the West has only employed a fraction of its power to date, driven as it is by commercial considerations and misplaced geopolitical fear of Russia’s reaction. It is precisely this disunity that has allowed Vladimir Putin to keep raising the ante in Ukraine because it lets him indulge his belief that he can outlast any Western pressure. After all, major energy firms have signed big deals with Rusisa while this fighting was taking place, confirming his belief in the West’s essential decadence and greed.
> 
> Moreover he has so identified himself with the nationalist passion in Russian politics that he himself has generated that to retreat now would undermine his domestic political position and acknowledge a stunning geopolitical defeat caused solely by his obstinacy. If the West does not exploit this opportunity to impose truly powerful sanctions, Mr. Putin will likely continue to raise the stakes in Ukraine and be drawn into a deeper and still more protracted aggression that would truly increase the possibility for a general war.
> 
> In other words, because nothing until now has convinced Mr. Putin to stop and because he has hitherto seen his enemies as weak and divided, unless they impose such severe sanctions that make the message of Western resolve crystal clear, he is likely to keep plunging. If the West wants to deter a greater or wider war from breaking out it must now seize control of the so called ladder of escalation. By imposing severe sectoral sanctions on the key sectors of Russia’s economy – energy, banking, and finance – it can send Mr. Putin a message that continuing this war risks a wider war that Russia can neither win nor sustain.
> 
> The French Revolutionary Louis St. Just once acidly observed that those who make revolution by half steps are only digging their own graves. This insight also applies to the deterrence that the West should have provided before this crisis and since it began until now. Instead, the timorous half-steps and warnings backed up by nothing but air have led Mr. Putin to conclude that he can stand the sanctions imposed to date since they will probably not last and in any case the West is divided.
> 
> Moreover he has convinced himself that he cannot let Ukraine be an independent westward-looking state, for that spells the end of his system at home. As a result he has put the security and stability of Russia itself and Europe at greater risk than anyone has done in years. Paradoxically, a strong Western response, along the lines being called for by President Barack Obama and Prime Minister David Cameron are essential to impose deterrence upon Russia, rescue it, Ukraine, and Europe from a wider war, and begin the task of pacifying post-war Ukraine. Another round of half-steps will only confirm St. Just’s observation although the forum for that justification will be war not revolution.
> 
> Indeed, the pathetically divided and hesitant Western response until now has allowed Mr. Putin to widen the war and maintain the strategic initiative. The sight of stronger, richer states cowering before Mr. Putin is more than a little reminiscent of the appeasers of the 1930s who feared what Hitler or Mussolini might do if they acted forcefully to thwart their aggressions in their early stages. While Mr. Putin is not Hitler – although he evidently aspires to something like Mussolini’s status – the same lesson holds today. Those who resist aggression by half-steps are only digging their own (and others’) graves. Thus the nearly 300 victims of the Flight 17 demonstrate the costs of inaction, along with the brutality and corruption of the Russian forces, largely composed of Russian intelligence, paramilitary, military, and volunteer forces.
> 
> The West must also act because Mr. Putin has repeatedly shown that he will not accept responsibility for his actions. This should not have surprised anyone. As a veteran KGB officer he and his colleague have long ago internalized the notion that their all their crimes were actually committed by the victims while they were saving the state. To let this kind of behaviour go unpunished, not only risks a wider war, it also further corrupts both Russia’s and Europe’s public morality. Once again the West has the opportunity to deter a war, rescue the latest victims of Russian aggression from its grasp and continue its historic mission to civilize international politics. If we forfeit that chance by not imposing the deterrence, punishments, or sanctions clearly required here, who knows when, if ever, we will get a second chance to do the right thing.




I'm going to repeat myself: Russia cannot be a 'good neighbour' to Europe. It needs to be slowed, defanged, destabilized - take your pick - and this situation (especially MH-17) presents a good 'cause' to take all manner of punishing non-military actions to accomplish that.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Ukraine is a political/economic basket case - which is why the EU is so lukewarm towards it, the last thing Finland, Germany and the Netherlands need is another "weak sister." See this report from _Reuters_ on the latest screw-up.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

I support a robust NATO basing strategy in Poland. Close enough to deter, far enough to be a minimal threat.  Plus it makes it clear that NATO takes it responsibility for protecting Poland far more than the Allies did in the late 30's. That would also make the Poles feel safer as well.


----------



## The Bread Guy

NY Times small arms expert tracks where the rounds appear to be coming from based on a small sample of spent casings (80) picked up around an area that had changed hands once or twice.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Media reporting artillery fire from Russia at Ukraine troops


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Colin P said:
			
		

> Media reporting artillery fire from Russia at Ukraine troops



According to CBC radio this morning the U.S. is saying they have evidence that the Russians are firing from inside Russia on Ukrainian forces.


----------



## vonGarvin

Retired AF Guy said:
			
		

> According to CBC radio this morning the U.S. is saying they have evidence that the Russians are firing from inside Russia on Ukrainian forces.














Yemen wedding hit by deadly air strike

Any criticism by the United States on the use of force by one nation in another nation's sovereign space is slightly (ha!) hypocritical.


----------



## McG

Meanwhile, the EU discusses stepping up sanctions significantly, with formerly hesitant states now pushing for action.  Options include export ( particularly tech exports) restrictions, arms embargoes (not affecting the Mistral carriers), and barring of business with Russian national banks.

And, as Russia denies involvement with the MH17 shooting, a separatist leader confirms that Russia did provide SA-11 but probably took it back after the incident.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/ukraine/article19736185/


----------



## Remius

General Disorder said:
			
		

> Yemen wedding hit by deadly air strike
> 
> Any criticism by the United States on the use of force by one nation in another nation's sovereign space is slightly (ha!) hypocritical.



Or this forgotten gem...  http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655


----------



## McG

Of course, appeal to hypocrisy does not make a logical argument.  So what is the point?  That it was okay for Russia to provide the capability without controls (oversight or C2 systems) to enable the oblivious downing of a civilian airliner?  That fires engagement of Russian Army is a healthy escalation of this conflict?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, the Netherlands and Australia are sending cops to help secure the MH17 crash site.


----------



## KerryBlue

Crantor said:
			
		

> Or this forgotten gem...  http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655



Not unlike this one http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Airlines_Flight_007

Neither the US or Russia is innocent when it comes to things like this.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some of the latest from the Slavic poop-storm ....

Human rights group:  _"Unguided Grad rockets launched apparently by Ukrainian government forces and pro-government militias have killed at least 16 civilians and wounded many more in insurgent-controlled areas of Donetsk and its suburbs in at least four attacks between July 12 and 21, 2014 ...."_
Reports of UKR shells hitting RUS targets
Reports of RUS shells/rockets hitting UKR targets
Word of Russia offering/sending "the big guns" to Ukrainian rebels, maybe soon


----------



## The Bread Guy

Canada's PM in an op-ed piece in the _Globe & Mail_, shared here in accordance with the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the _Copyright Act_:


> The world is saddened and rightfully outraged by images of the charred remnants of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, and by the loss of almost 300 people from 11 countries, strewn across fields in eastern Ukraine. While the grim work of identifying victims’ remains and tracking down the perpetrators of this appalling crime is just beginning, the world can be certain of one thing: There can be no weakening of our resolve to punish the Putin regime for threatening the peace and security of eastern and central Europe.
> 
> Although we may refer to militants in eastern Ukraine as “pro-Russian separatists,” we are not confused by who, and what, they really are: an extension of the Russian state. They derive their material, political and logistical support from the Putin regime, and their criminal aggression and recklessness reflect the values of their Russian benefactors. Some have suggested that these agents of the Putin regime may have shot the plane down by accident. We do not, and may never, know. But accident or no accident, the blood is on the hands of the men who took such a risk and of the government that encouraged them to do so. Even if they did not intend to kill hundreds of innocent civilians, there is no denying their intent to continue waging a war on behalf of a regime that remains in violation of international law for its illegal occupation of Crimea.
> 
> Russia’s aggressive militarism and expansionism are a threat to more than just Ukraine; they are a threat to Europe, to the rule of law and to the values that bind Western nations. Canada will not stand idly by in the face of this threat.
> 
> That is why we have taken a strong stand, imposing a broad range of sanctions against those entities and individuals responsible for the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. Since the start of the crisis in Ukraine, Canada has imposed sanctions on nearly 150 individuals and entities. Earlier this week we broadened our approach, announcing economic sanctions against key sectors of the Russian economy.
> 
> It is why Canada has pledged more than $220-million in loan and loan guarantees which, once the appropriate conditions have been met to ensure that the funds are being used for their intended purposes, will help Ukraine to stabilize its economy and promote economic and social development. It is why we are providing training for the Ukrainian military, as well as Canadian military personnel and equipment to NATO’s reassurance package in eastern and central Europe.
> 
> It is also why, last spring, G7 leaders decided to suspend preparations for the 2014 G8 Summit scheduled to take place in Sochi and convened instead as the G7 in Brussels. Through its actions, Russia under President Vladimir Putin has demonstrated that it does not share the values of this community of nations, dedicated as we are to democracy, international security, and the rule of law. Given this, it is difficult to foresee any circumstance under which Mr. Putin’s Russia could be readmitted to the family of G7 nations.
> 
> Along with the sanctions imposed by our American and European allies, the measures undertaken by the international community are having an impact on the Russian economy. Investments are dropping and capital is leaving the country.
> 
> The steps Canada has taken have not been made without careful consideration of their potential impact on Canadian business interests abroad and at home. Like our allies, we will put our national interests first, but we will not allow business interests alone to dictate our foreign policy. With Mr. Putin’s Russia increasingly autocratic at home and dangerously aggressive abroad, now is not the time to ease the diplomatic and economic pressure on the regime. Sustained, strong and co-ordinated action among like-minded countries is the best way to ensure that our actions have the maximum impact on the Putin regime.
> 
> Mr. Putin claims to abide by notions of stability, the rule of law and the peaceful settlement of international disputes, and yet we have seen reports this week of more Russian troops being moved to the border with Ukraine, while weapons and other supplies continue to flow freely over the border with his approval. It is time Mr. Putin matched his words with actions. He must reverse his course in Ukraine. He must withdraw his troops from the Ukrainian border, stop the flow of weapons and militants into Ukraine, and use his influence to persuade the militants, currently operating with the support of his regime, to lay down their weapons and cease the violence. He must also work to ensure that those investigating the shooting down of MH17 are not impeded in any way in their efforts to uncover the truth behind the deliberate or reckless targeting of innocent civilians.
> 
> The choice is Mr. Putin’s. He can take these actions to recommit Russia to peace, democracy, and the rule of law or he can persist with the politics of intimidation and aggression, in which case Canada – and its allies – must take further, more punitive steps to isolate Russia from the rest of the world’s democratic states. The values and principles we cherish as Canadians, and for which so many generations have fought and died, demand it.


----------



## meni0n

General Disorder, you seem to have a real hate on for anything Pro Western in Ukraine and I don't really understand your reasoning as it makes no sense.

According to you, a President can make promises to his people in order to get elected and then turn around and backtrack on them and expect no repercussions. Ukraine is not Canada and the people in the Western part of Ukraine have had enough of the corruption and broken promises by Yanukovich hence why Maidan happened. 

I don't see how you can equate what is happening in Eastern Ukraine right now to Maidan as I somehow missed all the tanks, rocket launchers, APCs, and all the other US supplied weaponry supplied to Maidan in order to have their, as you say it, coup d'etat. Which according to you, when elected officials vote a President out due to corruptions and all those promises and replace him with already ELECTED officials within the government. I must have missed all those armed men present when the voting was taking place, oh wait I remember where that happened before, you might also know that name, Crimea maybe?

You also forget that the party in power , party of the regions, when Yanukovich was President was representing a minority of Ukrainians since there are 49 million of them and only a fraction of them live in the East.  

And now comes the next part, out of those 49 million Ukrainians, the only problems seem to be coming from a region where only a maximum 4-5 million people live. For all this coup d'etat and all this outrage you suppose have happened in Ukraine, for some reason there hasn't been any armed revolts or uprisings anywhere else in Ukraine, but lo and behold only in the region that was Yanukovich's power base. 

Now, you call the new government illegitimate, although you don't quiet explain how you came to that conclusion. Ukraine just held Presidential voting and a new president was elected and all the members of the government are elected officials, which let's remember, were elected prior to Maidan by Ukrainians. So please point out the illegitimacy in that.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some of the latest ....

Latest UKR govt update map (28 Jul) attached
UN report:  _"A total breakdown of law and order and a reign of fear and terror have been inflicted by armed groups on the population of eastern Ukraine, according to a new report issued today by the Office of United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights.  The report documents how these armed groups continue to abduct, detain, torture and execute people kept as hostages in order to intimidate and “to exercise their power over the population in raw and brutal ways.” Well organized and well equipped militarily, these armed groups have intensified their challenge to the Government of Ukraine, the report says. In response, there has been an acceleration of Government security operations during July in the areas still under the control of the armed groups ...."_ - report (65 page PDF) here
Trying, again, to get to the MH17 crash site  _"Australian forn minister in #Kiev: convoy intl investigators now en route wreckage site #MH17 with agreement #Ukraine military & separatists .... Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop in #Kiev says rebels still control wreckage site #MH17, OSCE negotiating access intl investigators"_ (NY Times reporter Twitter feed)


----------



## vonGarvin

meni0n said:
			
		

> General Disorder, you seem to have a real hate on for anything Pro Western in Ukraine and I don't really understand your reasoning as it makes no sense.
> 
> According to you, a President can make promises to his people in order to get elected and then turn around and backtrack on them and expect no repercussions. Ukraine is not Canada and the people in the Western part of Ukraine have had enough of the corruption and broken promises by Yanukovich hence why Maidan happened.
> 
> I don't see how you can equate what is happening in Eastern Ukraine right now to Maidan as I somehow missed all the tanks, rocket launchers, APCs, and all the other US supplied weaponry supplied to Maidan in order to have their, as you say it, coup d'etat. Which according to you, when elected officials vote a President out due to corruptions and all those promises and replace him with already ELECTED officials within the government. I must have missed all those armed men present when the voting was taking place, oh wait I remember where that happened before, you might also know that name, Crimea maybe?
> 
> You also forget that the party in power , party of the regions, when Yanukovich was President was representing a minority of Ukrainians since there are 49 million of them and only a fraction of them live in the East.
> 
> And now comes the next part, out of those 49 million Ukrainians, the only problems seem to be coming from a region where only a maximum 4-5 million people live. For all this coup d'etat and all this outrage you suppose have happened in Ukraine, for some reason there hasn't been any armed revolts or uprisings anywhere else in Ukraine, but lo and behold only in the region that was Yanukovich's power base.
> 
> Now, you call the new government illegitimate, although you don't quiet explain how you came to that conclusion. Ukraine just held Presidential voting and a new president was elected and all the members of the government are elected officials, which let's remember, were elected prior to Maidan by Ukrainians. So please point out the illegitimacy in that.



Where to start?
First, I don't hate everyone and everything in the West.  I just see that what's happening there as not a case of good vs. evil.  

Just a few points.

First, regarding a politician and his promises, broken once elected.  This is commonplace, and if we were to "storm the Bastille" every time that happened, our governments would last days, if not hours.  And the promise that was broken was an economic trade deal, and in the end, Yanukovich chose to side with Russia, because that deal was better for Ukraine (and it probably didn't hurt that he is a Rus, and not a Uke, or whatever the term is for an ethnic Ukranian)

Your point about Maidan being democracy in action is ignorant at best, and downright dangerous at worse.  Force was used to oust a legitimately elected government.  It may not have been tanks and such, but it was force, and it was localized, and most likely involved foreign intervention, albeit covertly.  It was overtly supported by The West as a "rising up against tyranny", when it was nothing more than sour grapes.

As for the Donbass, etc, the Rus in that area fear, rightly or wrongly, that the coup d'état would put them in a precarious position with regards to the balance of power.  So, in their case of "Sour grapes" (I don't think that they have justification for fearing the worst out of the new regime in Kyiv), they arm themselves, again, with support from Mother Russia (covertly as well as they can...)

So, it's not a case of East = Good and West = Bad.  I just think that the whole rotten mess isn't a case of a good revolution on one side, and a bad one on the other.  And I do note the thunderous silence over the use of area weapons in populated areas of dubious military value.  (as in the use of Artillery in cities). 

I just think that in this case, "our" prejudice against Russia is causing us to immediately judge them as the bad guy, and by default, the Ukranians as the good guys.

As for the minority rising up, if you recall Maidan, it was mostly in the west.  Now it's in the East.  Yanukovich somehow won a majority in the East, and enough in the west to win overall as President.  Now?  

Soup Sandwich.  

And it's none of our business.


----------



## meni0n

If you have proof that localized force was used with as you say covert support, please share because that is not the case at all. Maidan drew all sorts of people, which make up a society. I still don't see where the force was used when elected MPs in parliament voted out Yanukovich. Once again, there weren't any armed people present when the vote was done so I don't see your point being at all.


Definition of coup d'etat: s the sudden and illegal seizure of a government,usually instigated by a small group of the existing state establishment to depose the established government and replace it with a new ruling body, civil or military.

So which government was replaced then? All elected MPs still sit and none of them were replaced. You really need to stop using coup d'etat since it's an entirely wrong term.

I am not ignorant of the facts at all, in fact, I have a lot more knowledge  than you about the whole situation and I can tell you right now that your statements are just false and bordering tin foil paranoia.


----------



## Edward Campbell

I don't know that anyone, including the people*s* (the plural matters) in Ukraine and the region, *know* what's going on.

I am prepared to state, categorically that no one, not a single soul in Washington, London, Brussels, New York or Ottawa knows (or cares, very much) what's going on. 

What I do know, and what should be obvious to everyone is:

     1. Ukraine matters to Canada because there is a large, politically savvy (and active) Ukrainian _diaspora_ in Canada;

     2. Ukraine is a social, political and economic mess;

     3. Ukraine matters to Germany, but it is not an essential component of _Mitteleuropa_;

     4. Ukraine, evidently, matters to Russia/Putin, though the gods alone know why; and

     5. No one, regardless of ethnicity, language or political disposition, is blameless in this current mess.

Maybe it's not evident, but I suspect it is true, is that this will end badly for almost everyone.


----------



## vonGarvin

meni0n said:
			
		

> If you have proof that localized force was used with as you say covert support, please share because that is not the case at all. Maidan drew all sorts of people, which make up a society. I still don't see where the force was used when elected MPs in parliament voted out Yanukovich. Once again, there weren't any armed people present when the vote was done so I don't see your point being at all.
> 
> 
> Definition of coup d'etat: s the sudden and illegal seizure of a government,usually instigated by a small group of the existing state establishment to depose the established government and replace it with a new ruling body, civil or military.
> 
> So which government was replaced then? All elected MPs still sit and none of them were replaced. You really need to stop using coup d'etat since it's an entirely wrong term.
> 
> I am not ignorant of the facts at all, in fact, I have a lot more knowledge  than you about the whole situation and I can tell you right now that your statements are just false and bordering tin foil paranoia.


You're a fucking idiot.  

You saw no violence at Maidan?  Blind as a bat, I suppose.






(In this photo, we see a peaceful Maidan protester giving a dose of good wishes to the Evil police)


You perfectly defined what happened at Kyiv when you define Coup d'état.  The president was ousted.  Enough on that.

Finally, you are a fucking, 100%, bonafide loon.  An idiot.  And of course, on my ignore list, because, as the HAL 9000 said to David Bowman as the latter sat in his pod outside the Discovery: "This conversation can serve no purpose anymore.  Goodbye."


----------



## KerryBlue

General Disorder said:
			
		

> You're a fucking idiot.
> 
> You saw no violence at Maidan?  Blind as a bat, I suppose.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> (In this photo, we see a peaceful Maidan protester giving a dose of good wishes to the Evil police)





Ah nothing like using RT as a unbiased source. 

Since in your eyes it was only the protestors who were being violent lets have some evidence of the opposite. 






Lemme count, 4 riot cops with shields, helmets body armour and clubs v one protestor on the ground 

Only Maidan protestors threw Molotov's at the riot police(Berkut) right.....






When's the last time you heard of a Mountie throwing molotov's at protestors...

How about this guy who they kept naked in the winter while cops stood around him






Again the Maidan protests started as peacefully and didn't turn violent until after Nov 30th, when Berkut violently tried to disband the protests. And it's not like there history of violence is limited to the Euromaidan. Berkuts violent history goes back to 1995. They have been dissolved in all of Ukraine, less Crimea where they have now been given Russian passports and the over 1000 who  are fighting with the separatist in the east.


----------



## meni0n

I guess whoever doesn't agree with General Disorder  gets called names and ignored so that his point of views cannot be challenged with facts. 

I just don't quiet understand the paranoia from someone who serves in the CF.


----------



## George Wallace

meni0n said:
			
		

> I just don't quiet understand the paranoia from someone who serves in the CF.



Well.  One comment I can make to this comment of yours is that quite often members in certain occupations of the CAF have a lot clearer picture of world current events than those who do not serve and rely solely on the MSM spin.


----------



## meni0n

Alas George, I am in an occupation that's in a better position to have that clearer picture than he is.


----------



## Good2Golf

...which might make it a good time for you to stop the to'ing and fro'ing with him playing the "I know more about what's going on so my opinion is more correct than yours" game...


----------



## PuckChaser

meni0n said:
			
		

> Alas George, I am in an occupation that's in a better position to have that clearer picture than he is.



Then you should probably be careful what you post, because if you have more information that than open source, you don't want to be posting classified stuff out in the open here.


----------



## meni0n

I've posted all info that's available open source, don't worry I've been very careful. I guess I'll bow out now.


----------



## Edward Campbell

meni0n said:
			
		

> Alas George, I am in an occupation that's in a better position to have that clearer picture than he is.




 :bullshit:  Sorry to be rude, but see my comments, above ... your "picture" may (or may not) be "clearer" than that available to others, but your interpretation is just as imperfect as his, or mine.


----------



## George Wallace

meni0n said:
			
		

> Alas George, I am in an occupation that's in a better position to have that clearer picture than he is.



Perhaps.  Perhaps not.  Judging by your avatar, it could be on some level, but not necessarily a complete picture.   Remember that what little may be released by the ACE, is only a small part of a larger puzzle.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Thought I'd break up the "who knows more" thing with the latest UKR info-machine's sitrep map ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest EU sanctions out (PDF)....


> .... In order to restrict Russia's access to EU capital markets, EU nationals and companies may no more buy or sell new bonds, equity or similar financial instruments with a maturity exceeding 90 days, issued by state-owned Russian banks, development banks, their subsidiaries and those acting on their behalf. Services related to the issuing of such financial instruments, e.g. brokering, are also prohibited.
> 
> In addition, an embargo on the import and export of arms and related material from/to Russia was agreed. It covers all items on the EU common military list.
> 
> Coreper also reached agreement on a prohibition on exports of dual use goods and technology for military use in Russia or to Russian military end-users. All items in the EU list of dual use goods are included (see latest list in annex to regulation 428/2009).
> 
> Finally, exports of certain energy-related equipment and technology to Russia will be subject to prior authorisation by competent authorities of Member States. Export licenses will be denied if products are destined for deep water oil exploration and production, arctic oil exploration or production and shale oil projects in Russia.
> 
> The measures will apply to new contracts. These restrictions will now be formally adopted by the
> Council through a written procedure. They will apply from the day following their publication in the EU Official Journal, which is scheduled for late on 31 July.
> 
> Additional restrictions for Crimea and Sevastopol
> 
> In addition, the Coreper meeting of 28 July agreed on trade and investment restrictions for Crimea and Sevastopol, as requested by the European Council of 16 July. These comprise a ban on new investment in the following sectors in Crimea and Sevastopol: infrastructure projects in the transport, telecommunications and energy sectors and in relation to the exploitation of oil, gas and minerals. Key equipment for the same six sectors may not be exported to Crimea and Sevastopol; finance and insurance services related to such transactions must not be provided ....


----------



## Kirkhill

Leading with the financial sector, and including dual use technology, takes the heat out of the French argument on the Russian Mistrales. France claimed that Britain was ready to fight to the last French job. 

Britain will be taking a major hit on financial services immediately.  The inclusion of dual use technology should also address concerns that Britain was still exporting stuff like sporting arms, batons and night vision equipment.

Although the arms embargo applies only to future contracts, perhaps the screws can now be turned on France to cancel both the Sevastopol and Vladivostok deliveries.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> .... Although the arms embargo applies only to future contracts, perhaps the screws can now be turned on France to cancel both the Sevastopol and Vladivostok deliveries ....


It didn't take long for Russian media to start counter-messaging on that one:


> *Ban on defence product supplies to Russia not to be automatically applicable to Mistral*
> 
> BRUSSELS, July 29. /ITAR-TASS/. France’s contract for Mistral supplies to Russia will not be automatically covered by a ban on supplies of defence-related products to Russia, *a European diplomatic source* told ITAR-TASS on Tuesday.


----------



## The Bread Guy

The latest UKR Info-machine ATO map attached - although some progress seems to be being made under the thumb of the "thumbs up fist" covering rebel territory, that salient on the south side near Stepanivka ("Степанівка") is looking miiiiiiiiiighty thinner these days than in previous maps.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest UKR Info-machine ATO map attached.

Also, it appears international observers & investigators were able to make it to the crash site.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest UKR Info-machine map ....


----------



## George Wallace

OPPPPS!

Soldier’s Geotagged Instagram Selfies Land Russia and Putin in Hot Water

That damn technology and today's kids.


----------



## The Bread Guy

George Wallace said:
			
		

> OPPPPS!
> 
> Soldier’s Geotagged Instagram Selfies Land Russia and Putin in Hot Water
> 
> That damn technology and today's kids.


Good catch!  The lad's Instagram account (while it's still online and/or public, anyway) appears to be an intriguing collection of snapshots of Russian military life, including what some barracks look like, and a bit of NBCD training, not to mention what looks like the female (sister?) platoon:


----------



## McG

That article might have been more interesting if it had included a screen capture of the photomap showing what images it claims were in the Ukraine and where.  I don't use the site.  Is there anyone here who would know how to pull up that map?


----------



## The Bread Guy

MCG said:
			
		

> That article might have been more interesting if it had included a screen capture of the photomap showing what images it claims were in the Ukraine and where.  I don't use the site.  Is there anyone here who would know how to pull up that map?


I'm not an Instagram member, so I can't pull up the geo-location, either.

Anyone?  Anyone?

Unless, of course, buddy turned it off by now.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest map from the UKR info-machine attached


----------



## McG

Der Spiegel suggests that NATO needs to start considering the plan for when not-Russian soldiers appear in Latvia or Estonia.  The UK's David Cameron also seems to think it is time for NATO to _change the relationship_ with Russia.



> NATO must rethink relationship with Russia: David Cameron
> CTV News
> 02 Aug 2014
> 
> LONDON -- Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron says NATO must rethink its long-term relationship with Russia following its "illegal" actions in Ukraine.
> 
> Writing to alliance leaders, Cameron says it is clear that Russia views NATO as an adversary. He says NATO must strengthen its ability to respond quickly to any threat, and agree on how to sustain a robust presence in Eastern Europe.
> 
> The letter, which was released Saturday, comes six weeks before the meeting in Wales, the first NATO summit in the U.K. since Margaret Thatcher hosted the alliance 1990 as the Cold War was coming to a close.
> 
> Cameron says that today's world is more unpredictable as "Russia has ripped up the rulebook with its illegal annexation of Crimea and aggressive destabilization of Ukraine."


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest UKR Info-machine map attached (in English).

Also, this interesting tidbit from Russian media:


> More than 180 of 438 Ukrainian servicemen crossing into Russia’s Rostov region overnight to Monday are heading back home, a Russian Federal Security Service official said.
> 
> “The FSB border department for the Rostov region has organized the transfer of Ukrainian military who decided to return home,” its spokesman Vassily Malayev said. The servicemen are heading home on buses and armored vehicles.
> 
> The rest of the group are still staying in Russia.
> 
> On Monday night, a group of 438 Ukrainian servicemen and border guards asked for permission to enter Russia, and a humanitarian corridor was opened for them.
> 
> A group of Ukrainian servicemen had to cross into Russia overnight to Monday after they had run out of ammunition in a fight against militia, said a spokesman for the military operation headquarters following earlier reports about Ukrainian military fleeing to Russia.
> 
> Alexei Dmitrashkovsky said Ukrainian military had been surrounded by militiamen while running out of ammunition. “Their military hardware was damaged,” Dmitrashkovsky said, adding that the servicemen had to cross the border.
> 
> Meanwhile, a Russian Federal Security Service official reported earlier on Monday that more than 400 Ukrainian military said to have served in Ukraine's Mechanised Brigade 72 and with the border guards crossed into Russia overnight to Monday seeking an asylum ....


Russian media video here.

Denials of the asylum bit from the Ukrainian side here, with word that Ukraine's keeping in touch with some troops in Russia here.


----------



## CougarKing

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Latest UKR Info-machine map attached (in English).



Apparently there's a discrepancy in the number who actually crossed:

Ukrainian troops in Russia...but it's not what most people would think at first glance.

Reuters



> *Ukrainian troops cross into Russia to avoid fighting, talks underway*
> Reuter
> By Natalia Zinets and Richard Balmforth
> 
> KIEV (Reuters) - Ukraine said on Monday it was in talks with Moscow over the return of *311 Ukrainian soldiers and border guards who had been forced by fighting with separatists to cross into Russia, but Russian border authorities said the troops were seeking asylum*.
> 
> Both sides seemed set to use the fate of the troops to score propaganda points as Ukrainian government forces extended steady gains it has made against the pro-Russian separatists since a Malaysian airliner was downed over a rebel-held area on July 17.
> 
> Ukrainian defence spokesman Andriy Lysenko said a group of soldiers and border guards, who had been caught between the Russian border to the east and rebel positions in the west, had crossed into Russia in the early hours of Monday.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## The Bread Guy

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> Apparently there's a discrepancy in the number who actually crossed:


Reports of some (disarmed) UKR troops returning from RUS - with rebels reportedly shooting at them as they leave.  Reported numbers all over the place today as well.

Also, the latest UKR info-machine map attached.

Meanwhile, while a big advocate of federalism with the neighbours, Russia not _quite_ as supportive of "federalism" within its own borders.


----------



## McG

I see they have added graphics to show where Russia is firing multiple rocket launchers across the boarder.


----------



## CougarKing

Military.com



> *US Military Deploys Team of Troops to Ukraine*
> 
> Aug 06, 2014 | by Richard Sisk
> 
> About a dozen American troops from U.S. European Command on Tuesday arrived in Ukraine to help recover remains and investigate the downingof the Malaysian airliner  that killed all 298 passengers aboard, officials said.
> 
> The State Department requested the team to "assess, advise, and provide recommendations to the U.S. Embassy" about support for the recovery operation, Navy Rear Adm. John Kirby, the Pentagon press secretary, said at a briefing with reporters.
> 
> Kirby said that the troops will not go to the crash scene in eastern Ukraine near fighting between the forces of the central government in Kiev and separatists backed by Russia.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, MOAR sactions from Ottawa:


> Prime Minister Stephen Harper today issued the following statement announcing additional economic sanctions and travel bans against 19 Russian and Ukrainian individuals, and economic sanctions against 22 Russian and Ukrainian groups and economic entities:
> 
> “The Putin regime’s continued illegal occupation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula and its provocative military activity in eastern Ukraine remains a grave concern to Canada and the international community.
> 
> “Last week, Canada announced its intent to impose additional sanctions on Russia to further increase economic and political pressure on the Putin regime and those closest to it.
> 
> “Today, we are announcing those measures, which include additional economic sanctions and travel bans against Russian and Ukrainian individuals, and economic sanctions against Russian and Ukrainian entities. These sanctions, imposed in close coordination with partners in the United States and Europe, will further increase pressure on those responsible for the crisis in Ukraine. Export restrictions announced by the European Union with respect to military and military dual-use goods destined to Russia, are already in place in Canada. We are also committed to imposing the necessary regulations to enact export restrictions on technologies used in Russia’s oil exploration and extraction sector. Those will be implemented in parallel with our allies.
> 
> “President Putin has not provided any indication that he is prepared to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity or use his control over Russian-backed agents to end the violence in Ukraine. On the contrary, reports indicate that, despite the criminal downing of MH 17, Russia continues to provide logistical support and sophisticated weapons to its agents in eastern Ukraine.
> 
> “Together with our allies and partners, we stand ready to take further actions if the Putin regime’s military aggression continues.”



The newest add-on's to the Canada's black list:


> .... *Individuals (Russian)*
> ■Sergei Orestovoch Beseda, Commander of the Fifth Service of the Russian Federal Security Service and Commander of the Service for Operational Information and International Communications of the Russian Federal Security Service.
> ■Aleksandr Vasilievich Bortnikov, permanent member of the Russian Federation’s Security Council and Director of the Russian Federal Security Service.
> ■Mikhail Vladimirovich Degtyarev, member of the State Duma.
> ■Mikhail Efimovich Fradkov, permanent member of the Russian Federation’s Security Council and Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service.
> ■Boris Vyacheslavovich Gryzlov, permanent member of the Russian Federation’s Security Council.
> ■Ramzan Akhmadovich Kadyrov, President of the Republic of Chechnya.
> ■Vladimir Georgyevich Kulishov, First Deputy Director of the Russian Federal Security Service, Chief of the Border Guards.
> ■Konstantin Valerevich Malofeev, Russian business figure and financier of secessionist groups in Ukraine.
> ■Rashid Gumarovich Nurgaliev, permanent member and Deputy Secretary of the Russian Federation’s Security Council.
> ■Nikolai Platonovich Patrushev, permanent member and Secretary of the Russian Federation’s Security Council.
> ■Nikolay Terentievich Shamalov, CEO and majority shareholder of Bank Rossiya.
> ■Igor Shchegolev, aide to the President of the Russian Federation and the former Minister of Communications and Mass Media.
> ■Alexander Nikolayevich Tkachyov, Governor of Krasnodar Krai.
> ■Valerii Yuriovych Travkin, officer in the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
> 
> *Individuals (Ukrainian)*
> ■Sergey Abisov, “Minister of Interior” of the “Republic of Crimea.”
> ■Pavel Yurevich Gubarev, one of the self-described leaders of the so called “Donetsk People’s Republic.”
> ■Ekaterina Yurevna Gubareva, so called “Minister of Foreign Affairs” of the “Donetsk People’s Republic.”
> ■Boris Litvinov, Chairman of the “Supreme Council” of the so called “Donetsk People’s Republic.”
> ■Oksana Tchigrina, spokesperson of the so called “government” of the ”Luhansk People’s Republic.”
> 
> *Entities (Russian)*
> ■Bank of Moscow
> ■Dobrolet (Dobrolyot) Airlines
> ■Russian Agricultural Bank (Rosselkhozbank)
> ■Russian National Commercial Bank
> ■United Shipbuilding Corporation
> ■VTB Bank OAO (former Vneshtorgbank)
> 
> *Entities (Ukrainian)*
> ■“Army of the Southeast”
> ■“Crimean enterprise ‘Azov distillery plant’”
> ■“Donbass People’s Militia”
> ■“Federal State of Novorossiya”
> ■“International Union of Public Associations ‘Great Don Army’”
> ■“Luhansk Guard”
> ■“Resort ‘Nizhnyaya Oreanda’”
> ■“Sobol”
> ■“State concern ‘National Association of producers Massandra’”
> ■“State enterprise ‘Factory of sparkling wine Novy Svet’”
> ■“State enterprise ‘Kerch commercial seaport’”
> ■“State enterprise ‘Magarach of the national institute of wine’”
> ■“State enterprise ‘Sevastopol commercial seaport’”
> ■“State enterprise ‘Universal-Avia’”
> ■“State ferry enterprise ‘Kerch Ferry’”
> ■“Vostok battalion”


----------



## The Bread Guy

A very interesting read here from Time.com about counsellors having to deal with the mental health effects of "information/propganda overload" from both sides, even once the "bad guys" are gone.  Shows rebels as not all evil, and Ukrainian security forces taking a gentle hand in at least one re-occupied area.  Another interesting tidbit:  the tension between those (both Russian and Ukrainian) saying, "you know, just because they helped the rebels doesn't make them evil" and "why aren't you rounding up all those collaborators, dagnabit?!?"  The video focuses more on the "Ukrainian forces as bad guys" meme, but the article is pretty nuanced for something this short.


----------



## cupper

> Commander of the Fifth Service of the Russian Federal Security Service and Commander of the Service for Operational Information and International Communications of the Russian Federal Security Service.



I'd like to see that on a business card.  ;D


----------



## MilEME09

cupper said:
			
		

> I'd like to see that on a business card.  ;D



size 2 font


----------



## Kirkhill

Pot stirring time....

Re-reading the NATO treaty I can't find any exclusionary language there with respect to Article V.

The reason I bring this up is that there seems to be a rising tide of concern that Putin may have backed himself into a corner and finds a "humanitarian invasion" of Novorossiya his only viable out.

If ..... Putin invades
And If ...... Poland, Romania, Moldova and the Balts decide to adopt a forward defence of a fraternal state against a demonstrably existential threat
And If ...... Russia counters by attacking the supporting belligerents by any means available


Then what?

Any neutral states been guaranteed protection by any great powers in the last 100 years or so?  Excluding Ukraine of course.....


----------



## McG

Russia has announced more military exercises in the boarder region, and NATO suggests there is already a division size force assembled and positioned to invade at any time.  

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-crisis-russia-could-be-poised-to-invade-nato-says-1.2728720


----------



## vonGarvin

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> Any neutral states been guaranteed protection by any great powers in the last 100 years or so?  Excluding Ukraine of course.....



Well, *exactly* 100 years ago, a "scrap of paper" got the British Empire to duke it out with the German Empire...


----------



## The Bread Guy

A few tidbits ....

Latest UKR info-machine map attached (with a touch more detail re:  where Russian MRLS's are allegedly firing into Ukraine).
Ukrainian media report _"Five Ukrainian servicemen who are held in Russia have been charged with the alleged shelling of Russian territory, National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) information and analytical center spokesman Andriy Lysenko has said ...."_
Meanwhile, some of the Ukrainian troops returning from their shortish visit to Russia didn't appear to like where they were being taken, so they got off the train with their families until it was agreed to send them somewhere closer to the capital.
Although the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine isn't saying much about his resignation, he goes out of his way to say on Twitter in English that he'll continue to _"help our guys on the frontline, first of all to the volunteer battalions"_.
It was all cops, molotov cocktails and burning tires (again?) at a Maidan tent camp in Kiev.


----------



## Kirkhill

General Disorder said:
			
		

> Well, *exactly* 100 years ago, a "scrap of paper" got the British Empire to duke it out with the German Empire...



Interesting "You are there" series in the Telegraph.....

It bears reading from the Aug 1 reiteration of events.

Where interests and honour collide.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, from the "Russia Denies It Can Do Anything with those feisty Eastern Ukrainian Federalism Fighters" file, over in the Donetsk People's Republic, Muscovite "PM" Alexander Borodai is stepping down (following " "consultations" in Moscow") and being replaced by Ukrainian rebel forces leader**** Alexander Zakharchenko.





**** - Translation:  _"commander of a paramilitary unit made up of members of a martial arts club"_ according to Reuters, or, according to _The Guardian, "a murky sporting organisation and fight-club, Oplot ("stronghold" in Russian) .... closely linked with pro-Kremlin groups. And with organised crime ...."_

The first rule of "Russian Fight in Ukraine Club" is:  there is no Russian ....


----------



## dapaterson

Canada to ship military equipment to the Ukraine.

MND is in Trenton at a press conference right now making the announcement.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-to-get-military-equipment-from-canada-to-help-protect-border-1.2729999


----------



## Good2Golf

dapaterson said:
			
		

> Canada to ship military equipment to the Ukraine.
> 
> MND is in Trenton at a press conference right now making the announcement.
> 
> http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-to-get-military-equipment-from-canada-to-help-protect-border-1.2729999



...I see boots are not on the list?


----------



## The Bread Guy

This from the PM's Info-machine (highlights mine):


> Prime Minister Stephen Harper today issued the following statement announcing non-kinetic (non-lethal) security assistance to Ukraine:
> 
> “Canada’s response to Russian expansionism and militarism in eastern Ukraine has been swift, targeted and unequivocal.
> 
> “In keeping with the values and principles we cherish as Canadians, I am proud of the role we have taken in the international community against this aggression by imposing a broad range of sanctions against those responsible for the crisis in Ukraine, by helping train the Ukrainian military, by isolating Russia at the G-7, and by supporting Ukraine’s economy.
> 
> “I am pleased today to announce yet another action that Canada is taking to help the people of Ukraine put an end to the insurgency.
> 
> *“Today, a CC-130J Hercules from Canadian Forces Base Trenton will be departing for Ukraine in the first of a series of flights to deliver non-kinetic military equipment that Ukraine will be able to use to secure and protect its eastern border against Russian aggression.
> 
> “This equipment – which includes helmets, ballistic eyewear, protective vests, first aid kits, tents and sleeping bags – will provide physical and medical protection to those on the front lines against the insurgency. The logistic equipment provided will allow Ukrainian security and border authorities to better detect and track the movement of illicit goods and people. * It is what Ukraine has asked us for and we are delivering.
> 
> “Canada remains committed to working with its allies and partners to preserve and promote a free, democratic, and peaceful world.  We stand prepared to continue to apply further economic and political pressure if the Putin regime’s military aggression and provocative actions continue.”





			
				Good2Golf said:
			
		

> ...I see boots are not on the list?


Especially not mukluks, right?


----------



## KerryBlue

Good2Golf said:
			
		

> ...I see boots are not on the list?




Looking at pictures and videos of the ATO in the east many Ukrainian government troops are wearing sneakers....seems lack of boots is not just a Canadian issue


----------



## CougarKing

Here we go again; renewed unrest in Kiev's streets.

From Australia Channel 7 News via Yahoo News



> *Smoke and tensions rise over remains of Kiev protest camp*
> 
> AFP
> August 8, 2014,
> 
> 
> *Thick smoke from burning tyres once again billowed into the blue sky over Kiev's iconic Independence Square on Thursday as a rump of demonstrators still living in the protest camp scuffled with authorities trying to clear the area.*
> 
> Demonstrators hurled stones and set debris alight as they halted a short-lived push by municipal workers backed by interior ministry troops to dismantle barricades around the entrance to the central square with bulldozers.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Maidan self-defence activists clash with fighters of Kiev-1 volunteer battalion on Independence Square in Kiev on August 7, 2014.(AFP Photo / Sergei Supinsky)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> An Orthodox priest throws a tyre as Maidan self-defence activists clash with fighters of Kiev-1 volunteer battalion on Independence Square in Kiev on August 7, 2014.(AFP Photo / Sergei Supinsky )


----------



## down on the upside

tires tires everywhere, does nobody drive to dump them, in the marketsquare? 

Seriously, those tires don't look half bad.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Another .... interesting theory about the airliner shootdown from the UKR security service info-machine:


> During the investigation of Malaysia Airlines Boeing-777 downing the law enforcement and intelligence bodies established that terrorists and militants have cynically planned the terrorist attack at Aeroflot civil aircraft, AFL-2074 Moscow-Larnaca, which was flying over the territory of Ukraine at that moment. Hereof informed the Head of the Security Service of Ukraine Mr. Valentyn Nalyvaichenko during the briefing today.
> 
> He underlined – the crime was planned as a ground for bringing of Russian troops into Ukraine, that is – CASUS BELLI for the Russian military invasion.
> 
> According to the official Ukrainian data, June 17, 2014, at the mentioned time two regular international flights were operating over the territory of Ukraine following the filed requests for aircraft clearance – MAS17 plane of the Malaysia Airlines and AFL-2074 one of Aeroflot.
> 
> The routes of the mentioned international flights were approaching the sky over Donetsk. At 16:09 in the area of Novomykolaivka town the routes of the mentioned flights crossed. It is worth noting that the flight specifications of the aircrafts were almost identical – the Malaysian aircraft flew at a height of 10,100 m at a speed 909 km/h, while the Russian one - at a height of 10,600 m at a speed 768 km/h ....



OK ....


----------



## Flavus101

*Ukraine to get helmets, vests from Canada to help protect border*



> Canada will send military equipment to help Ukraine protect its eastern border, Defence Minister Rob Nicholson said Thursday.
> 
> "Ukraine has asked for this and once again we are delivering," Nicholson said at CFB Trenton, a busy air base located a 90-minute drive east of Toronto.
> 
> "[Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s failure to end his support to armed rebel groups constitutes a real threat to international peace and security​."
> 
> Ukraine conflict: Russia must 'step back from the brink,' NATO chief says
> Are sanctions on Russia beginning to bite?​
> The equipment includes helmets, ballistic eyewear, protective vests, first-aid kits, tents and sleeping bags, according to a news release from the Prime Minister's Office.
> 
> The release says the equipment "will allow Ukrainian security and border authorities to better detect and track the movement of illicit goods and people."
> 
> NATO says it fears Russia is poised to invade Ukraine, with 20,000 soldiers positioned along the country's border.



The full article can be viewed here: Click


----------



## McG

Clearly I am underutilizing my helmet.  How can I use it to detect illicit movement?


----------



## YZT580

Lift it up so it is no longer covering your eyes


----------



## Kirkhill

YZT580 said:
			
		

> Lift it up so it is no longer covering your eyes


 :rofl: :cheers:


----------



## The Bread Guy

YZT580 said:
			
		

> Lift it up so it is no longer covering your eyes


Oh, so not like this ....






Meanwhile, the UKR Info-machine's "map o' the day" attached.


----------



## cupper

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Another .... interesting theory about the airliner shootdown from the UKR security service info-machine:
> OK ....



If this was indeed true, it would seem that the Russians were hoisted by their own petard.


----------



## vonGarvin

If we aren't at war against Russia in six months, I'll be surprised...


----------



## The Bread Guy

cupper said:
			
		

> If this was indeed true, it would seem that the Russians were hoisted by their own petard.


This, from a U.S. Naval War College national security affairs prof on the latest Ukrainian security service allegation about an Aeroflot plane really being the rebels'/federalists' target:


> .... I’ve been getting a lot of questions about this remarkable claim by Kyiv, specifically: Where’s the hard evidence? I find this story to be plausible, given known Russian intelligence tradecraft, what they call konspiratsiya, but the evidence we’ve seen to date isn’t exactly rock solid (I won’t say “a slam dunk,” thank you very much). The SBU has set a high bar for itself with its aggressive, and highly successful, public outreach in recent months, including its own YouTube channel where it has posted a lot of nearly raw intelligence, mainly SIGINT .... That Kyiv has not done so here tells me one of three things is going on:
> 
> 1. The SBU has access to high-level Kremlin SIGINT, meaning they have cracked top-grade Russian codes, and releasing that SIGINT would compromise a very valuable source that Kyiv very much needs right now.
> 
> 2. The SBU has a high-placed HUMINT asset in the Kremlin camp and compromising that source by releasing too much information here would be stupid as war with Russia looms.
> 
> 3. This is an analytically-derived conclusion, based on a lot of evidence from many sources, none of them conclusive alone but which, taken together, lead to a firm conclusion based on multi-INT analysis ....



A few eclectic tidbits ....

UKR media:  _"Body armor provided to 86% of ATO military"_
RUS media:  _"Five Ukrainian servicemen have been detained in Russia on suspicion of war crimes, a spokesman for the Russian Investigative Committee said Friday.  The detained servicemen are suspected of using phosphorus bombs against the civilian population of eastern Ukraine and shelling Russian territory ...."_
RUS media:  _"Russia is ready to mediate talks between the Kiev government and southeastern Ukraine independence supporters, the secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev told RIA Novosti in an interview Friday.  "Russia is not a party to the conflict, but the above-mentioned events take place near our borders. We are interested in peace in Ukraine and in bringing the sides to the negotiating table so that they could settle their disputes," he said ...."_
Reuters:  _"As he announced his resignation from the post of the self-styled prime minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, Aleksandr Borodai reminded journalists on August 7 he was a "native Muscovite" who had come to eastern Ukraine from Russia as a "crisis manager." ...."_
How Putin is squeeeeezing the EU via the food import bans (via Sean's Russia Blog)


----------



## Kirkhill

Reference your last Tony.  

Currently involved with a company that "luckily" anticipated a variant of this crisis.  A double shuffle and side step and they have prepared a plant that is equipped to redirect "Russia-bound" raw material into Asian markets that were being serviced by Russia at lower cost.

My client has, in 24 hours,  seen its traditional market collapse, its raw material supply increase manifold, its raw material cost drop 20% and the value of its new, untried product, rise 10% as potential customers and brokers come out of the woodwork to offer contracts FOB the plant sight unseen.

At least one individual corporation is extremely grateful to Vladimir Putin.

As one of the client's managers said: there is a reason it is called Russian roulette.

Only thing is - Vlad has been playing with 5 rounds chambered.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> Reference your last Tony.
> 
> Currently involved with a company that "luckily" anticipated a variant of this crisis.  A double shuffle and side step and they have prepared a plant that is equipped to redirect "Russia-bound" raw material into Asian markets that were being serviced by Russia at lower cost.
> 
> My client has, in 24 hours,  seen its traditional market collapse, its raw material supply increase manifold, its raw material cost drop 20% and the value of its new, untried product, rise 10% as potential customers and brokers come out of the woodwork to offer contracts FOB the plant sight unseen.
> 
> At least one individual corporation is extremely grateful to Vladimir Putin.


Good one - thanks for sharing.



			
				Kirkhill said:
			
		

> As one of the client's managers said: there is a reason it is called Russian roulette.
> 
> Only thing is - Vlad has been playing with 5 rounds chambered.


 :nod:


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> A few eclectic tidbits ....
> 
> RUS media:  _"Five Ukrainian servicemen have been detained in Russia on suspicion of war crimes, a spokesman for the Russian Investigative Committee said Friday.  The detained servicemen are suspected of using phosphorus bombs against the civilian population of eastern Ukraine and shelling Russian territory ...."_


Update (UKR media, quoting RUS media) -   reportedly no longer detained:


> Five Ukrainian officers detained earlier in Russia on suspicion of using prohibited means and methods of warfare in the east of Ukraine will not be prosecuted and will be allowed to return home, Russian Investigative Committee spokesman Vladimir Markin said.
> 
> "It turned out in the course of an investigation that 72nd brigade of the Ukrainian armed forces servicemen Ivan Voitenko and four of his subordinates were obeying orders from their superiors and did not commit crimes against civilians in Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine," Markin told Interfax on Saturday.
> 
> "Following the principle of humanity, it has been decided not to indict them and provide them with the opportunity to return to the Ukrainian territory," Markin said.


----------



## jollyjacktar

General Disorder said:
			
		

> If we aren't at war against Russia in six months, I'll be surprised...


I hope you'll be surprised in 6 months time.  25+ years ago, they were getting my stink eye along with everyone else.  

Today, I don't want to see a fight with them.  Islamists are the one's I want to see dropping.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Recent tidbits on humanitarian convoys (alleged & proposed) .... 

UKR:  We busted a RUS (military) convoy claiming to be humanitarian trying to get into UKR.
RUS:  Lies, all lies!
International Committee of the Red Cross:  _".... The ICRC also acknowledges receipt of the offer from Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov, about organizing aid convoys to the affected areas in Ukraine. “In the current situation, any humanitarian initiative is welcome to alleviate the suffering of civilians”, explained (Michel Masson, who heads the ICRC operations in Ukraine). “We are exploring the possibility of distributing additional aid in the conflict zones; this implies the involvement, endorsement, and support of all concerned parties. Any ICRC action will be taken in strict adherence to our fundamental working principles of neutrality, impartiality, and independence. Furthermore, the ICRC teams also need safe access to perform their work.” ...."_
U.N. Secretary General Statement:  _“…. If there is further deterioration of the humanitarian situation (in Eastern Ukraine), or if nationally-led response efforts are not sufficient to meet humanitarian needs, the UN is ready to consider additional measures of support. At this stage, the situation is being handled appropriately by the Government of Ukraine, in coordination with international partners ….”_
UKR President (via Twitter - Google translation fm Ukrainian):  _"Discussed with Merkel sending a humanitarian mission in Lugansk: We are ready to receive humanitarian assistance, but if the mission is international."_


----------



## The Bread Guy

Interesting .....


> In an anonymous military classroom somewhere in Moscow, 12 portraits in identical tortoiseshell frames stand on a metal bench placed on a dais. In front of each picture is a bunch of six roses, red and pink.
> 
> The dead, according to a source who showed the Financial Times photographs of last month’s quiet memorial – an individual with intimate knowledge of the Kremlin’s intelligence community – were operatives of Russian special forces. All 12 died in Ukraine in recent weeks. Officially, they were all on holiday ....


Russia's response:


> The Russian Defence Ministry on Saturday denied Western media reports alleging that 12 Russian Army Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) commandos had been killed in Ukraine and described them as “a fake”.
> 
> It said the same allegations had already been carried by Ukrainian mass media several weeks ago. Now they were reported by The Financial Times.
> 
> “Sam Jones [the author of the article], who specialises in Russian affairs and who has numerous sources in the MI-6 [British intelligence service] has deeply swallowed the fake that was played out several weeks ago by Ukrainian mass media. But he barely digested it as can be seen from his article,” Defence Ministry spokesperson, Major General Igor Konashenkov said.
> 
> He said the whole text was riddled with “cliches and copied passages from Wikipedia.” ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Bumped with the latest UKR info-machine map ....


----------



## vonGarvin

jollyjacktar said:
			
		

> I hope you'll be surprised in 6 months time.



As do I.  I rather like surprises.


----------



## McG

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Bumped with the latest UKR info-machine map ....


I have read the Donetsk rebels are ready to discuss a ceasefire now that their support line to Russia is cut.  Maybe there is hope that things can cool.


----------



## Kirkhill

MCG said:
			
		

> I have read the Donetsk rebels are ready to discuss a ceasefire now that their support line to Russia is cut.  Maybe there is hope that things can cool.



Read the same thing and have the same hopes.

A couple of other interesting gambits in the works

Poland has a port (Elblag) that can only reach the Baltic by passing through Russian waters.  Kaliningrad controls the only exit from the Vistula Lagoon.
Poland is now proposing cutting a canal across the sand spit that defines the lagoon and create an all Polish route.  I believe that has been a sore point for the Poles since the days of the Teutonic Order.

More interestingly:

Ukraine is considering shutting off the supply of ..... Russian gas to Europe.



> Ukraine, which no longer receives any gas from Russia but acts as a conduit for its neighbor’s European customers, is considering a “complete or partial ban on the transit of all resources” across its territory, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk told reporters today in Kiev. It may also ban Russian planes from its airspace and cut defense-industry cooperation.



This is Clark's Northern Gateway Gambit with a twist.

If there is nothing in it for Ukraine/BC why would they allow Russia/Alberta to export across their turf?
The immediate negative impact is on Russia/Alberta who are deprived of revenues.

The twist is that if the EU can't get their act together enough to support Ukraine and insist in permitting the sale of Anti-Ukrainian weaponry to Russia (Mistrals) then perhaps the prospect of being as cold as the Ukrainians might encourage a change in behaviour.  "We feel your pain, brothers".

Ukraine is so far in the weeds just now - a couple of used helmets just doesn't signify - that it is being "encouraged" to take measures as drastic as Vlad (and potentially just as dangerous).

Sidenote: Ukraine is bordered by Russian tanks and Poland and Romania - both of whom are familiar with Russian tanks.  Poland and Romania have also chosen to equip themselves with copious quantities of Spike Anti-Tank missiles manufactured by the eternal "pariah-du-jour" Israel.  They have selected the 4000 and 8000 m LRs and ERs.   Effective military aid to Ukraine would be to permit the stealing of Polish and Romanian weapons by the Ukrainians (carelessly left on the border) and supply the Poles and Romanians with funds to make up their losses.

Canadian Precedent of WW2 - US aircraft "stolen" by Canada



> By October the first Hudsons had arrived at St. Hubert and, with the assistance of RCAF and Trans-Canada Airlines groundcrew, preparations proceeded at a frantic pace to check them out, to prepare them and their crews, and to fly them to the British Isles via Newfoundland. G*etting the planes to Montreal required an imaginative circumvention of the U.S. neutrality laws*. American law prohibited citizens of a belligerent power from flying planes in the United States and decreed that aircraft could not be flown out of the country for the use of a nation at war. To get around this, *American civilians employed by Lockheed Corporation flew them from the factory in California to Pembina, North Dakota. There, horses pulled them a few yards across the 49th parallel to Emerson, Manitoba*, before crews of the CPR Air Services Department finished the journey to Montreal along the Trans-Canada Airway (built as a make-work project during the Great Depression). It is interesting to note that, while the practice of towing aircraft across the border ceased in the spring of 1941, i*t did happen with a considerable number of aircraft at more than one location, from Sweetgrass, Montana to the maritime provinces*.


----------



## CougarKing

Meanwhile, in Crimea...   :facepalm:

Associated Press



> *Report: US actor Steven Seagal performs in Crimea*
> 
> MOSCOW (AP) — The Russian news RIA Novosti says American actor and musician Steven Seagal has performed at a concert in the breakaway region of Crimea on a stage decorated with the flag of pro-Russian separatists fighting in eastern Ukraine.
> 
> Seagal, who knows Russian President Vladimir Putin, performed with his blues band Saturday night in the Black Sea port city of Sevastopol at a concert organized by a motorcycle gang of Russian nationalists known as the Night Wolves. Russia annexed the Ukrainian region in March.
> 
> (...EDITED)



Please note a story from back in February where he said he was mulling Russian citizenship.


----------



## Kirkhill

Was she sighted along with him?  If so we know that he is working deep undercover.


----------



## Kirkhill

For those having difficulty recognizing her....


----------



## Good2Golf

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> Meanwhile, in Crimea...   :facepalm:
> 
> Associated Press
> 
> Please note a story from back in February where he said he was mulling Russian citizenship.



To quote 'Jack Ryan' (with a cinematically un-related reference to CPO Casey Ryback): "a (...)damned cook!"


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest UKR info-machine map ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Talk of humanitarian missions, details on who's leading & who's on board to follow ....

Russian pres, talking to EU pres:  _".... The President noted that *Russia, working together with International Red Cross officials, is sending a humanitarian convoy to Ukraine* ...."_
Ukrainian pres, talking to EU pres:  _".... The interlocutors discussed the situation in the Donbas and the initiative of the Ukrainian President on *conducting the international humanitarian mission for Luhansk under the aegis of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC)* ...."_
Ukrainian pres, talking to U.S. pres:  _"The U.S. President expressed support to the actions of the Ukrainian President, particularly, to his initiative on *the international humanitarian mission for Luhansk under the aegis of the International Committee of the Red Cross with participation of the EU, Russia, Germany and other partners*. Barack Obama confirmed *the intention of the USA to take active part in the international humanitarian mission* ...."_


----------



## McG

So, is this to be our next major blue beret deployment?


----------



## The Bread Guy

MCG said:
			
		

> So, is this to be our next major blue beret deployment?


As soon as everyone stops shooting at each other, right?  That would make all sides in the former Yugo look positively Kumbaya ....

Re:  the "humanitarian mission", just spotted the EC President's take on the whole thing:


> .... Speaking with President Poroshenko, President Barroso emphasised the EU’s readiness to increase its support to the Ukrainian government-led humanitarian response efforts as well as to international humanitarian organisations. The President of the Commission welcomed President's Poroshenko willingness to seek international humanitarian assistance. In this vein President Barroso announced that the European Commission would take this week an emergency Decision on additional humanitarian support as a contribution to the UN-led international response plan.
> 
> (....)
> 
> Speaking with President Putin, President Barroso said that the EU would join in international efforts to assist people in need as a result of the conflict.
> 
> (....)



And Ukraine's National Security Council spokesperson?  Uh, no, there won't be Russian vehicles in that run, thank you (UKR media, in Ukrainian).


----------



## The Bread Guy

And now that everyone's crystal clear on that humanitarian convoy thing, this from RUS media:


> Russian convoy with humanitarian aid will depart to Eastern Ukraine shortly without any military escort - Kremlin spokesman


 op:


----------



## KerryBlue

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> And now that everyone's crystal clear on that humanitarian convoy thing, this from RUS media: op:



Boy they sure had that convoy ready quickly, almost like this has been planned for a long time....

For some reason, a Russian convoy going into Ukraine just seems like a really bad idea.


----------



## vonGarvin

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> And now that everyone's crystal clear on that humanitarian convoy thing, this from RUS media: op:



:rofl:


This is like watching a really bad "B" movie, like Sharknado...


----------



## The Bread Guy

General Disorder said:
			
		

> :rofl:
> 
> 
> This is like watching a really bad "B" movie, like Sharknado...


Yeah, it does feel sorta like the information's sorta puking out stutteringly, doesn't it?





Meanwhile, a touch more clarity from the Red Cross:


> .... In response to the latest initiative of the authorities of the Russian Federation to hand over humanitarian assistance to the ICRC in order to help people and areas affected by conflict in eastern Ukraine, the ICRC is ready to facilitate such an operation with the involvement, endorsement, and support of all sides concerned.
> 
> Today the ICRC met with the Ukrainian and the Russian authorities and shared a document which specifies the manner in which such an operation could take place. This includes the agreement by all sides that the ICRC will be allowed to deliver the aid with due respect for its fundamental working principles of neutrality, impartiality and independence.
> 
> The document also stipulates, among other matters, that prior to beginning of the operation, the ICRC should receive without undue delay from the authorities of the Russian Federation all necessary details concerning the aid, including the volume and type of items, and requirements for transport and storage. All parties must also guarantee the security of ICRC staff and vehicles, for the entire duration of the operation, in view of the fact that the organization does not accept armed escorts.
> 
> "The practical details of this operation need to be clarified before this initiative can move forward," said (Laurent Corbaz, the ICRC's head of operations for Europe and Central Asia) ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

The latest:  RUS Emergency Ministry says (in Russian) 280 x vehicles containing 2K tonnes of "food, baby food, medicines, drinking water" is on its way to Ukraine from Moscow.  UKR media says it'll be coming via Kharkiv area by Wednesday.

A UKR pres spokesperson says the aid'll be "reloaded onto other transport vehicles (at the border) by the Red Cross," adding RUS military or emergency ministry pers will not be allowed into Ukraine.

Edited to add:  So far, the Red Cross is saying _"We've been told by Russian authorities that an aid convoy is heading to #Ukraine border. We're not in charge of this convoy at the moment."_


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest UKR Info-machine map attached.

Also, latest from RUS Foreign Affairs Ministry with more details about the (reportedly) Kharkiv-bound aid convoy (Google translation from original in Russian)....


> .... During the humanitarian action planned to use 262 units of motor vehicles, of which 198 vehicles with trailers loaded with material resources and power plants with a total weight 1809.9 m.
> 
> The composition of the cargo included: power - 69 sets; different groats*** - 400 tons; canned meat - 340 tons; salt - 30 tons; Sugar - 100 tons; canned milk - 60 tons; Tea - 0.8 tons; bottled water - 679.5 tons; baby food - 62.4 tons; medical property - 54 tonnes; sleeping bags - 12 300 pieces.
> 
> Delivery of the goods, will be implemented through an agreed between the Russian and Ukrainian sides checkpoint "Shebekino- Pletnevka" on the border of the Belgorod (Russian Federation) and Kharkov (Ukraine) regions. After crossing the Russian-Ukrainian border column will proceed under the auspices of the International Committee of the Red Cross ....



*** - Groats:  translation of "крупа" (krupa), which some also say could mean "cereals" or "grains" in certain contexts.


----------



## The Bread Guy

General Disorder said:
			
		

> :rofl:
> 
> 
> This is like watching a really bad "B" movie, like Sharknado...


Further along those lines, gotta love a place where, on the same day, a supermarket magnate donates a BRDM to the National Guard, and a T-72 goes "missing" at a tank plant (both links in Ukrainian).


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest ATO map attached (in Ukrainan) and graphic (from RUS media) of what's supposed to be in the humanitarian run vehicles ....

Also, on that convoy thingy, this from French media:


> Hundreds of Russian aid trucks bound for rebel-held east Ukraine halted in the southern Russian city of Voronezh on Wednesday after Kiev said they would not be allowed to cross the border before being vetted by the Red Cross.
> The estimated 280 white vehicles lay idle at a Voronezh military base after driving there from the outskirts of Moscow the day before.
> 
> (....)
> 
> An (International Committee of the Red Cross) spokeswoman in Geneva said Russia had provided a "general list" of the convoy's cargo to Ukrainian authorities and the ICRC, but said the aid agency needed a more detailed inventory and that logistical details still needed to be hammered out.
> 
> "A number of important issues still need to be clarified between the two sides, including border crossing procedures, customs clearance and other issues," Anastasia Isyuk said ....



And from the UKR Prez's Info-machine?


> .... No civilized country refuses humanitarian assistance. Due to the actions of terrorists, Luhansk has no light, water and medicines for 11 days already.
> 
> All this time Ukraine has been looking for an opportunity to deliver assistance to this Ukrainian city. However, it is controlled by terrorists that do not allow doing this.
> 
> How can we direct assistance to Luhansk?
> 
> The Committee of the Red Cross offered to become a guarantor of the delivery of the international humanitarian mission to Luhansk. This organization reached an agreement with the Russian Federation about the international humanitarian aid for Luhansk including Russian humanitarian cargo.
> 
> Yesterday, Ukraine agreed to accept Russian part of humanitarian assistance in case it will be reloaded to the trucks hired by the Red Cross and will be accompanied solely by the Red Cross representatives.
> 
> But Russia rejected the given proposal.
> 
> So, today we have three scenarios of future developments:
> 
> First. Direct invasion of the Ukrainian territory under the pretense of humanitarian cargo delivery.
> 
> Second. Provocations with cargo on the territory of Kharkiv region with high probability of Russian aggression.
> 
> Third. Assistance to Luhansk will pass through the checkpoint which is the nearest to this Ukrainian city. Our customs officers, border guards and the OSCE representatives will be able to scan the cargo on the Ukrainian-Russian border. The mission will be moving through the territory controlled by militants. After the arrival to Luhansk, the Red Cross will distribute the assistance among civilians.
> 
> The decision to accept the assistance for Luhansk and prevent the large-scale invasion by Russia was adopted at the meeting of the President, the Prime Minister, the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada and security ministers in the night of August 12-13 ....



In other UKR military/political news, Ukraine's President has also appointed a new advisor to (after how many days in contact with foreign-supplied insurgents?) _"increasing the anti-corruption civic activity to enhance the transparency and efficiency of procurement for the Ukrainian army"_ with the Prez saying _"Those who were stealing or *continue stealing* from our militaries must be punished as soon as possible."_  

As much as I'm pro-Ukraine in this fight, it's not easy supporting/defending a side who still has to tell some senior officers/officials "hey, quick stealing from the troops."


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest UKR Info-machine map attached.

Meanwhile, the Russian convoy seems to have changed course, pulling up (surprise, surprise) next to Eastern Ukraine,  with the International Red Cross saying they still don't have details about the load, and the Russian Red Cross saying they're happy to help distribute the stuff "if all sides reach an appropriate agreement".

Nothing to see here ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Latest UKR Info-machine map attached.
> 
> Meanwhile, the Russian convoy seems to have changed course, pulling up (surprise, surprise) next to Eastern Ukraine,  with the International Red Cross saying they still don't have details about the load, and the Russian Red Cross saying they're happy to help distribute the stuff "if all sides reach an appropriate agreement".
> 
> Nothing to see here ....


Oh, the convoy has some "company", according to a reporter from _The Guardian_ ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

While RUS says they've talked to the Red Cross, Red Cross says they've made initial contact with the convoy headed towards E. UKR, saying _"Many practical details to be clarified."_ 

Meanwhlile, more "company" ("Column of over 20 APCs, 10km from the Ukraine border, and heading closer pic.twitter.com/OMvJmHzsx1") for the convoy headed towards E.UKR?





op:


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some of the latest ....

Latest UKR Info-machine ATO map attached
Ukraine's aid convoy on the road (UKR Info-machine)
UKR checking out Russian convoy (RUS media) ....
.... while reports continue of RUS military hardware near or across UKR's border (Reuters, UKR media)
An interesting (and timely?) six minute lesson on Soviet (Russian?) "salami" tactics from _"Yes, Prime Minister"_ (YouTube)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Lookit what reporters (here, here and here) are seeing in Russia 10km from eastern Ukraine.












Meanwhile ....


> NATO accused the Kremlin on Friday of escalating the conflict in Ukraine, following reports that a small column of Russian armoured vehicles had crossed overnight into an area of Ukraine where pro-Moscow rebels are battling government forces.
> 
> The Russian government denied its troops had entered Ukraine, but the media reports risked further inflaming tensions between Moscow and the West, which have already imposed costly economic restrictions on each other.
> 
> "If confirmed, they are further evidence that Russia is doing the very opposite of what it's saying. Russia has been escalating the conflict, even as it calls for de-escalation," NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu said ....



Edited to add what appears to be a map of whazzup in E. UKR from the separatst info-machine (in Russian), attached.


----------



## KerryBlue

Very brief and non-descriptive but this looks like it could be big news



> *Ukraine artillery destroys part of Russian armoured column - Poroshenko*
> 
> Separately, a Ukrainian military spokesman said Ukrainian forces had tracked the Russian armoured column as soon as it crossed onto Ukrainian soil.
> 
> "Appropriate actions were undertaken and a part of it no longer exists," military spokesman Andriy Lysenko told journalists.
> 
> (Writing By Richard Balmforth; Editing by Christian Lowe)
> 
> This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good catch KB - here's Reuters' version:


> Ukrainian artillery destroyed a "significant" part of a Russian armoured column that crossed into Ukraine during the night, President Petro Poroshenko told British Prime Minister David Cameron on Friday, according to the presidential website.
> 
> Separately, a Ukrainian military spokesman said Ukrainian forces had tracked the Russian armoured column as soon as it crossed onto Ukrainian soil.
> 
> "Appropriate actions were undertaken and a part of it no longer exists," military spokesman Andriy Lysenko told journalists.
> 
> Russia's foreign ministry, meanwhile, said Ukrainian forces are engaging in intense fighting in Eastern Ukraine to stop humanitarian aid to the region ....


----------



## vonGarvin

milnews.ca said:
			
		

>



"Customs control zone"


----------



## Privateer

I wonder if they have anything to declare?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Privateer said:
			
		

> I wonder if they have anything to declare?


Since it appears the separatists control the closest crossing point, I'm guessing they may get the "express line" treatment  

This, just out from the UKR Pres' info-machine (highlights mine):


> President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko had a phone conversation with Prime Minister of Great Britain David Cameron.
> 
> The parties coordinated their actions on the response to the information regarding *the entry of Russian military machines to the territory of Ukraine that has been clearly witnessed by international journalists, particularly of "Guardian" newspaper*. The President informed that the given information was trustworthy and confirmed because the majority of that machines had been eliminated by the Ukrainian artillery at night.
> 
> The British Prime Minister once again reaffirmed his *strong and gradual* support to Ukraine and the actions of the President ....


Re:  that bit in orange - the Ukrainian version of the statement Google translates that into "strong & consistent" support.

Meanwhile, Russia's response to the allegations of RUS mil vehicles in UKR?  Reports are _"based on fantasies and assumptions, they are not worth discussing"_

Here's some Reuters wire service video of what look like RUS airborne BMD's of some sort waiting near the UKR border.


----------



## McG

Looks like Russia was ready to use its aid convoy as a way of bringing troops and combat vehicles across the boarder.



> Laurent Corbaz, the International Committee of the Red Cross' director of operations in Europe, described a tentative plan in which the trucks would enter Ukraine with a single Russian driver each — as opposed to the current crew of several people in each truck — accompanied by a Red Cross worker. In line with Red Cross policy, there would be no military escort, he said.
> 
> However, some Russian military vehicles near the aid convoy were seen Friday carrying a Russian acronym standing for "peacekeeping forces" — a signal that Moscow was considering a possible military escort.


http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-says-it-destroyed-russian-military-vehicles-crossing-border-1.2737240


----------



## The Bread Guy

A few eclectic tidbits:

Newest UKR Info-machine map, attached.
One man's foreign fighter-interloper (in Russian) is another man's "internationalist brigadista".
Maybe _now_ people will believe Russia's backing the Eastern "federalists".
Latest excuse for Ukraine's wanting the East, according to Russian media and a separatist blog:  fracking for gas.
Who's to blame for problems in Eastern Ukraine?  If you believe the Deputy PM of the Donetsk People's Republic, _"Ukraine Nazis and Freemasons of Europe and the United States"_


----------



## CougarKing

The pro-Russian separatists back to using the Buk SAM system or was it simply MANPADS that brought it down?

Military.com



> *Ukraine Says Rebels Down Fighter*
> 
> Associated Press | Aug 17, 2014 | by Jim Heintz
> KIEV, Ukraine -- *Separatists have shot down a Ukrainian fighter plane amid fighting between pro-Russian rebels and Ukrainian government forces in the eastern part of the country, a Ukrainian military spokesman said Sunday.*
> 
> Oleksiy Dmitrashkovsky said that the plane was shot down over the Luhansk region after launching an attack on rebels. The pilot ejected and was taken to a secure place, he said.
> 
> Further details about the incident or the condition of the pilot were not immediately available.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Bumped with the latest maps, from the UKR and the separatist (SEP) info-machines, in English and Russian respectively.


----------



## The Bread Guy

A few more tidbits ....

UKR OK's RUS aid convoy in packets
Word of (empty?) RUS mil vehicles headed back from UKR to RUS
UKR claiming to make progress in the fight
_"In a sign that separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine are struggling with discord in the ranks, Donetsk separatists announced Monday they were setting up military tribunals and bringing in the death penalty.  The self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, or DNR, said it would bring in military tribunals with the right to pass the death sentence for a string of offences including treason, espionage, attempts on the lives of the leadership and sabotage ...."_
One analyst's take:  _".... If the Russians ever come genuinely to invade, then it will come as a thunderbolt, with massed airstrikes and artillery bombardments intended to shatter the command structures, supply lines, morale and cohesion of the Ukrainian forces. Moscow would use its overwhelming air superiority to strike deep into Ukraine, not least to prevent quick reinforcement of the frontline forces, cratering runways to prevent aircraft taking off and landing, blasting bridges and ripping railway lines .... Such an invasion would not only galvanize Ukraine’s resistance (and there are still thousands more reservists to muster if need be), it would trigger an unprecedented Western reaction. While there is no real prospect of NATO personnel intervening, everything from direct transfers of hardware through to extensive intelligence and electronic support would be forthcoming, along with a sanctions regime designed to do everything possible to cripple the Russian economy.  Whatever the success of the initial onslaught, Russian advances would likely be met with resistance by the Ukrainian units on the ground. Even if fighting piecemeal, with no common strategy, they would likely inflict serious losses on the attackers .... the military aspect of Russia’s campaign looks unlikely to be about to escalate. But without some political settlement between Moscow and Kiev, it is likely simply to be succeeded by a more covert but equally destructive phase of underground subversion."_


----------



## The Bread Guy

What could POSSIBLY go wrong with this plan (highlights mine)?


> Ukraine's Defense Ministry showed off its pilot program designed to train the civilian population to fight a war if it ever comes to it. The program, provisionally called Preparation of Population to Total Resistance, is being polished and will first start in larger cities, according to Oleksandr Danyliuk, adviser to the defense minister and author of the program. It's not clear when it will start, however.
> 
> A couple dozen journalists were taken to a training ground some 30 kilometers from Odesa on Aug. 16-17, and forced to take a crash course in fighting a partisan war. *They were shown how to set up a military camp in the middle of a field, shoot from a whole range of weapons, including machine guns. They were also trained how to behave in case they get ambushed by the enemy, and how to organize a guerilla-style raid against the enemy camp, as well as a crash-course in explosives and how to set them up. There is a total of nine modules in the program.  *
> 
> The program will be based on the training course for the students of the Odesa Military Academy of the Ground Forces, one of the oldest in the country.
> 
> “Ideally, we would like to arrive to the stage when every citizen would take a two-month course,” Danyliuk said. “But realistically it will probably be 72 hours of theoretical and practical training.”
> 
> He said the ministry of defense will be cherry-picking those who show aptitude for this type of activity, and offer then further training to be able to set up underground civilian networks that could be activated in case of a war. He said having such a network would mean a compete change of the nation's military doctrine.
> 
> “This is a search of the new Ukrainian formula, but as an example we're taking the Swiss and Israeli experience,” Danyliuk said ....


----------



## Transporter

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> What could POSSIBLY go wrong with this plan (highlights mine)?



I hear that after completing the nine modules participants must pass the FORCE test in order to be truly worthy of defending the motherland.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest info-machine maps, UKR in English, rebel/separatist in Russian


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest maps from UKR, separatist info-machines (in English & Russian respectively) and from Russian media outlet RIA Novosti (in English, including a bit of a "who's who" re:  who's funding some UKR militia battalions - without sharing the same info on the separatist side, of course).


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest ATO maps (UKR in English, separatist in RUS) attached.

Also, while the UKR Defence Ministry says they've captured Russian paratroopers, equipment in Ukraine (links to statement in Ukrainian) from the Pskov airborne division (or, maybe, the 76th Guards Air Assault Division), Russia denies this.


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Also, while the UKR Defence Ministry says they've captured Russian paratroopers, equipment in Ukraine (links to statement in Ukrainian) from the Pskov airborne division (or, maybe, the 76th Guards Air Assault Division), Russia denies this.


Bumped with a Ukrainian journalist's FB posting alleging to show one of said vehicles and bits of kit (some of the pix attached).


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some of the latest:

ATO map, 22 Aug 14 (UKR MoD, in Ukrainian)
ATO map, 10-22 Aug 14 (pro-separatist site, in Russian)
Ukrainian Border Guard Service (in Ukrainian):  _"We were inspecting Russia's aid trucks, they complained about it taking too long, so they're going in without full clearance."_
Russian Foreign Ministry (English - Russian):  _"We do what the Ukrainians asked, we wait, then they tell us 'gotta wait because of shelling up ahead'.  In other words:  Ukraine shelling up ahead to block convoy.  Screw that, we're headed in."_


----------



## Infantryman2b

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-crisis-russian-aid-convoy-crosses-border-without-kyiv-ok-1.2743706

In goes the convoy towards Luhansk.


----------



## The Bread Guy

A bit more ....

Russian media:  _"Russian officials have completed customs clearance of all humanitarian aid convoy vehicles, a spokesman for Russia’s Southern Customs Directorate, Rayan Farukshin, said Friday.  “At 16:00 [Moscow time, noon GMT] Russian customs officers completed customs procedures of the whole humanitarian convoy,” the spokesman said, adding that the trucks are currently leaving the Russian border crossing ...."_
UKR Border Guard Service (in Ukrainian):  Only 34 vehicles checked so far
Red Cross (in Russia via Twitter):   _"Russian convoy moves on the territory of Ukraine. We did not accompany the convoy due to the unstable security situation .... Our representatives in # Lugansk reported heavy shelling of the night. We have not received sufficient security guarantees from the warring parties"_
Reuters:  _"Ukraine declared on Friday that Russia had launched a "direct invasion" of its territory after Moscow sent a convoy of aid trucks across the border into eastern Ukraine where pro-Russian rebels are fighting government forces.  Moscow, which has thousands of troops close to the Russian side of the border, warned against any attempt to "disrupt" the convoy it said was a purely humanitarian operation; but it did not say what action it might take if Kiev's military intervened.  Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko described the entry of the trucks without Kiev's permission as a "flagrant violation of international law."  But a senior security chief said Ukrainian forces would not attack the trucks, and had allowed them in, even without proper clearance, to avoid "provocations" ...."_
Meanwhile, isn't everything making it to the front?  _"The Ukrainian Government has allocated UAH 9.1 billion (~ CDN $ 744 million) to provide anti-terrorist operations. This was announced by Prime Minister of Ukraine Arseniy Yatsenyuk on Friday, August 22, during a visit to the factory of the company "Practice" that produces armored equipment for ATO .... "By now more than 200 vehicles have been delivered to the National Guard alone. 600 armored vehicles have been ordered and will be delivered by the end of the year. For the Armed Forces 11000 items of arms and equipment have been resurrected, helmets and body armor purchased ".  "But the main issue is the delivery of these helmets, body armor, providing military personnel with the armor. There is equipment, tanks, the money has been transferred. [Required – edit.] logistics and relevant military superior orders," stressed the Prime Minister.  "The orders have been signed, the money allocated, the company is capable to produce minimum one armored vehicle a week. We have provided funding, production and upgrading. Military officials must ensure the delivery and use of equipment in ATO", - emphasized Arseniy Yatsenyuk."_


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> A few more tidbits ....
> 
> _"In a sign that separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine are struggling with discord in the ranks, Donetsk separatists announced Monday they were setting up military tribunals and bringing in the death penalty.  The self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, or DNR, said it would bring in military tribunals with the right to pass the death sentence for a string of offences including treason, espionage, attempts on the lives of the leadership and sabotage ...."_


Amnesty International chimes in ....


> The armed group calling itself the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) must not carry out a reported threat of killing prisoners facing life sentences, Amnesty International said today.
> 
> On Friday Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council announced that fighters from the group had seized a penitentiary institution in Donetsk and threatened to kill all prisoners facing life sentences, forcing the others to join their ranks.
> 
> “Killing prisoners is strictly prohibited under the Geneva Conventions, to which all parties must adhere in a time of conflict,” said Denis Krivosheev, Amnesty International’s Deputy Director for Europe and Central Asia.
> 
> “If genuine, this threat would demonstrate how desperately lawlessness is spiralling out of control in eastern Ukraine.”
> 
> The DPR introduced what it refers to as a Criminal Code on 17 August, providing the ‘death penalty’ for a number of crimes including treason, looting and espionage.


----------



## The Bread Guy

NATO's latest expression of concern ....


> I condemn the entry of a Russian so-called humanitarian convoy into Ukrainian territory without the consent of the Ukrainian authorities and without any involvement of the International Committee of the Red Cross. This is a blatant breach of Russia’s international commitments, including those made recently in Berlin and Geneva, and a further violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty by Russia. It can only deepen the crisis in the region, which Russia itself has created and has continued to fuel. The disregard of international humanitarian principles raises further questions about whether the true purpose of the aid convoy is to support civilians or to resupply armed separatists.
> 
> These developments are even more worrying as they coincide with a major escalation in Russian military involvement in Eastern Ukraine since mid-August, including the use of Russian forces.  In addition, Russian artillery support – both cross-border and from within Ukraine – is being employed against the Ukrainian armed forces. We have also seen transfers of large quantities of advanced weapons, including tanks, armoured personnel carriers, and artillery to separatist groups in Eastern Ukraine. Moreover, NATO is observing an alarming build-up of Russian ground and air forces in the vicinity of Ukraine.
> 
> Instead of de-escalating the situation, Russia continues to escalate it, despite the efforts of the international community to find a political  solution to the crisis. This can only lead to Russia’s further isolation.  I strongly urge Russia not to take further provocative actions, to stop destabilising Ukraine and to take genuine steps to resolve this dangerous situation with full respect of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and international law.


----------



## CougarKing

Russian mobile artillery in Eastern Ukraine?  



> Friday, August 22, 2014 11:55 AM EDT
> 
> *Russian Forces in Ukraine Are Firing Artillery, NATO Says *
> 
> *The Russian military has moved artillery units manned by Russian personnel inside Ukrainian territory in recent days and is using them to fire at Ukrainian forces*, NATO officials said on Friday.
> 
> The West has long accused Russia of supporting the separatist forces in eastern Ukraine, but this is the first time it has said it had evidence of the direct involvement of the Russian military.
> 
> The Russian move represents a significant escalation of the Kremlin’s involvement in the fighting there and comes as a convoy of Russian trucks with humanitarian provisions has crossed into Ukrainian territory without Kiev’s permission.
> 
> READ MORE »
> 
> Source: NY Times


----------



## CougarKing

Putin backing down? Unless their cargo was troops and equipment they already delivered to the rebels?    

Military.com



> *Russian Aid Trucks Begin to Leave Ukraine*
> 
> Associated Press | Aug 23, 2014 | by Alexander Roslyakov
> DONETSK, Russia -- Hundreds of trucks from a bitterly disputed Russian aid convoy to rebel-held eastern Ukraine rolled back across the border into Russia on Saturday.
> 
> An Associated Press reporter counted 225 of the white tarp-covered trucks as they drove from Ukraine into a Russian border town called Donetsk, which bears the same name as the largest rebel-held city in Ukraine. A second AP reporter on the Ukrainian side of the border was able to look inside about 40 of the tractor-trailers side and confirmed they were empty.
> 
> One driver who declined to give his name said the rest of the 260-truck convoy was expected to return within hours to Russia. The state news agency RIA Novosti cited the Russian customs service as saying the trucks were moving in six groups.
> 
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR Info-machine ATO map attached (in Ukrainian), and a Russian media map here (in English) showing who's where and who's paying for which Ukrainian militias (but not who's paying for the eastern ones).

Meanwhile, on UKR Independence Day #23, the Ukrainians show off a bit of hardware and troops ....









.... while separtatists in eastern Ukraine show off Ukrainian POW's in their own parade ....


----------



## George Wallace

Interesting.  The variety of uniforms on the PWs would indicate to me that they were 'staged actors' and not Ukrainian troops.


----------



## PuckChaser

Isn't using POWs in parades or showing them off on a humiliating manner a LoAC violation? Stay classy, seperatists.


----------



## McG

Soviet practice was to use blue for enemy and red for friendly on maps.  I imagine that Ukraine has continued the practice.  So, not being able to read the legend, would someone know if those big blue arrows in the south indicate the Russian Army advance across the boarder that NATO has reported?


----------



## The Bread Guy

George Wallace said:
			
		

> Interesting.  The variety of uniforms on the PWs would indicate to me that they were 'staged actors' and not Ukrainian troops.


Maybe, but other points to consider:
1)  If they're capturing members of privately-funded militias, there's been a pretty wide range of uniforms on those guys - hell, even the Interior Ministry's National Guard hasn't always exactly been a Sergeant Major's dream ....












2)  If they've been "guests" of the rebels, they may no longer have their own uniforms and living off whatever their "hosts" give them.


----------



## The Bread Guy

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> Isn't using POWs in parades or showing them off on a humiliating manner a LoAC violation? Stay classy, seperatists.


Some say so ....


> .... Apparently inspired by a parade of 60,000 German prisoners of war in Moscow in 1944, rebel forces in Donetsk decided to mark Ukrainian Independence Day with a blatant violation of the laws of war. A few days ago, pro-rebel media said that “Prime minister of DPR, A. V. Zakharchenko, just now ordered the presentation of damaged military vehicles of the Ukrop [Ukrainian] army on the Lenin square on August 24. And prisoners will be escorted through the city, like their German inspirers were in Moscow.”
> 
> The Geneva Conventions’ common article 3, which applies to all non-international armed conflicts, prohibits “outrages upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment.” This parade is a clear violation of that absolute prohibition, and may be considered a war crime ....


----------



## Fishbone Jones

'The Geneva Conventions’ common article 3, which applies to all non-international armed conflicts, prohibits “outrages upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment.” This parade is a clear violation of that absolute prohibition, and may be considered a war crime ....'

Guess we better put some more vegetables on the list of banned items Russia can import or stop a couple of more millionaire banker friends of Putin from vacationing on the French Riviera.

That'll show 'em. :


----------



## FJAG

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> Isn't using POWs in parades or showing them off on a humiliating manner a LoAC violation? Stay classy, seperatists.



This kind of question is exactly why God created lawyers.

Article 13 of the Third Geneva Convention re POWs states:

"Prisoners of war must at all times be humanely treated. Any unlawful act or omission by the Detaining Power causing death or seriously endangering the health of a prisoner of war in its custody is prohibited, and will be regarded as a serious breach of the present Convention. In particular, no prisoner of war may be subjected to physical mutilation or to medical or scientific experiments of any kind which are not justified by the medical, dental or hospital treatment of the prisoner concerned and carried out in his interest.
Likewise, prisoners of war must at all times be protected, particularly against acts of violence or intimidation and against insults and public curiosity.
Measures of reprisal against prisoners of war are prohibited."

But the Convention deals with war of an international nature between signatories to the convention.

The bulk of conflict since then have been of a non-international armed conflict in which case Additional Protocol II applies which at articles 4 & 5 calls for the humane treatment of any person (combatant or not) whose liberty has been restricted. This prohibits "outrages upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment . . ."

Just to complicate matters more, Additional Protocol I states that "armed conflicts in which peoples are fighting against colonial domination, alien occupation or racist regimes are to be considered international conflicts." In these circumstances the combatants, if captured are entitled to full POW status as per the Third Convention.

I won't even try to analyse as to whether this boondoggle is a war between signatories (Russia and Ukraine), an internal conflict per AP II or an AP I war of liberation (I'll leave that to academics who like debating how many angels can dance on the head of a pin) but in all three cases what is being done is contrary to the provisions.

Last point. Under the Geneva Conventions and protocols, there is a distinction between "Grave Breaches"  and "Breaches". Grave Breaches are the most serious types of offences such as murder, genocide, hostage taking, torture etc and these are what are "War Crimes". Minor breaches, while they are prohibited under the LoAC, are technically not "War Crimes". 

This leads to an interesting problem because the law in general concerns itself mostly with the "Grave Breaches" issue (see for example our Geneva Conventions Act).

Here's one article on the "Minor Breaches" regime that you might find of interest.

http://repository.law.umich.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1009&context=mjil

 :cheers:


----------



## vonGarvin

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> Isn't using POWs in parades or showing them off on a humiliating manner a LoAC violation? Stay classy, seperatists.



Paris, 1944:






It's been done.


----------



## PuckChaser

FJAG said:
			
		

> This kind of question is exactly why God created lawyers.



That's a far better answer than the "Probably" I'd get during LoAC refresher in IBTS! Much appreciated.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MCG said:
			
		

> So, not being able to read the legend, would someone know if those big blue arrows in the south indicate the Russian Army advance across the boarder that NATO has reported?


Even on their English-language maps, the red & blue arrows aren't in the legend.  Based on recent news reports (usual caveats), it appears the blue arrows are alleged Russian incursions into Ukraine.  

A few more of the latest maps - UKR Info-machine in Ukrainian, rebel info-machine in Russian, and a map done by whoever is posting to the @WarfareStudies Twitter feed - no identifying info on the feed (lots of Spanish defence and government accounts being followed).  Zero idea of what kind of folks are assembling said maps, or where they get their info, but the details are pretty damned granular.  In all three cases, caveat lector ....


----------



## Kirkhill

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Based in Lithuania and flying o'er the Baltics these days now that they've left Romania.
> Fair bit o' geography between the Baltics (X in attached map) and the Black Sea (Y), so I'm guessing that's not likely to happen at this point.
> 
> Then again, I'd never have guessed someone would suggest a crashed airliner flying from Holland to Malaysia was full of already-dead people, so anything's possible in this Wonderland.



We might have been a bit premature on this one Tony:



> Canadian Air Task Force Completes Mission In Romania
> 
> (Source: Canada Dept. of National Defence; issued August 22, 2014)
> 
> OTTAWA --- The Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) completed their Air Task Force’s (ATF) training mission in Romania today and was honoured with a parade and flag-lowering ceremony at the Romanian Air Force 71st Air Base in Campia Turzii.
> 
> The RCAF CF-18 aircraft will now relocate to Lithuania to augment the NATO Baltic Air Policing mission from September to December 2014 as Canada remains committed to supporting Ukraine promoting security and stability in Central and Eastern Europe.
> 
> A parade and flag-lowering ceremony marking the completion of the Canadian Air Task Force’s (ATF) training mission in Romania was held today at the Romanian Air Force 71st Air Base in Campia Turzii.



Pace Defense-Aerospace


----------



## Lightguns

General Disorder said:
			
		

> Paris, 1944:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It's been done.



To be fair, the organizers of that Paris parade are the Marquis, although recognized as combatants by the Allies, they were not by the AXIS.  I wonder how that would apply?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Lightguns said:
			
		

> Kirkhill said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> We might have been a bit premature on this one Tony:
> 
> Pace Defense-Aerospace
> I stand corrected - belated thanks for that.
> 
> 
> 
> To be fair, the organizers of that Paris parade are the Maquis, although recognized as combatants by the Allies, they were not by the AXIS.  I wonder how that would apply?
Click to expand...

Maybe the same way as if the Taliban did the same thing?


----------



## FJAG

General Disorder said:
			
		

> Paris, 1944:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It's been done.



Remember that the Geneva Conventions didn't get created until 1949, after WWII, although many concepts contained within them had already been accepted as customary law of war.

While I can't speak for the above image, one must not forget that sometimes it is necessary to move prisoners to major collecting points--the fact that they may have to move through civilians is different from a "show parade" which is designed to ridicule them.

For those who might be interested in a different twist on how western allies committed war crimes against German POWs late in WWII there is a book called "Other Losses" by James Bacque. Here's a link to the Wikipedia page. Note that the book is understandably quite controversial. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Other_Losses.

This page will point you towards the issue of German POWs held by Russia after WWII http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_prisoners_of_war_in_the_Soviet_Union

I'll let this be my last post on this issue as I seem to be wandering  ff topic:

 :cheers:


----------



## George Wallace

FJAG said:
			
		

> Remember that the Geneva Conventions didn't get created until 1949, after WWII,



Actually you are wrong.  The Geneva Conventions comprise four treaties, and three additional protocols, that establish the standards of international law for the humanitarian treatment of war. The singular term Geneva Convention usually denotes the agreements of 1949, negotiated in the aftermath of the Second World War (1939–45), which updated the terms of the first three treaties (1864, 1906, 1929), and added a fourth treaty.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geneva_Conventions



> Conventions
> 
> In diplomacy, the term convention does not have its common meaning as an assembly of people. Rather, it is used in diplomacy to mean an international agreement, or treaty. The first three Geneva Conventions were revised, expanded, and replaced, and the fourth one was added, in 1949.
> 
> The Geneva Convention for the Amelioration of the Condition of the Wounded and Sick in Armed Forces in the Field was adopted in 1864. It was significantly revised and replaced by the 1906 version, the 1929 version, and later the First Geneva Convention of 1949.
> 
> The Geneva Convention for the Amelioration of the Condition of Wounded, Sick and Shipwrecked Members of Armed Forces at Sea was adopted in 1906.  It was significantly revised and replaced by the Second Geneva Convention of 1949.
> 
> The Geneva Convention relative to the Treatment of Prisoners of War was adopted in 1929.   It was significantly revised and replaced by the Third Geneva Convention of 1949.
> 
> The Fourth Geneva Convention relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War was adopted in 1949.
> 
> With three Geneva Conventions revised and adopted, and the fourth added, in 1949 the whole set is referred to as the "Geneva Conventions of 1949" or simply the "Geneva Conventions". The treaties of 1949 were ratified, in whole or with reservations, by 196 countries.



===============================================================

........and back on topic.


There is no excuse for the POW photos today.  Even from the links that FJAG provided, we can see that there have been problems in that Region with recognizing or abiding by the Geneva Conventions on the treatment of POWs.  

This indicates that the Separatists/Rebels/Soviet insurgents/or whomever is fighting the Ukrainian government forces are not abiding by the Laws of War and are acting more like criminals/gangsters; an unruly/undisciplined mob that will be difficult to fight due to their unpredictability and use of guerrilla style tactics.


----------



## a_majoor

The sad fact of the matter is most of our potential enemies seem to have read the LOAC and turned it entirely around the better to confound us. So long as *we* don't act like barbarians or wild animals, then there is still an area of moral high ground for us to stand on, and something for the civilians in the conflict zone to remember when deciding who to support in the conflict. It won't be the only consideration, and by itself it might not be enough, but it is one thing *we* have that they don't.


----------



## FJAG

George Wallace said:
			
		

> Actually you are wrong.  The Geneva Conventions comprise four treaties, and three additional protocols, that establish the standards of international law for the humanitarian treatment of war. The singular term Geneva Convention usually denotes the agreements of 1949, negotiated in the aftermath of the Second World War (1939–45), which updated the terms of the first three treaties (1864, 1906, 1929), and added a fourth treaty.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geneva_Conventions



Sigh  :facepalm:

Don't forget the Hague Regulations of 1899 and 1907 which also incorporated the customs of war on this subject into treaties.  ... and then there was the Lieber Code.

But I digress.

eace:


----------



## FJAG

Thucydides said:
			
		

> The sad fact of the matter is most of our potential enemies seem to have read the LOAC and turned it entirely around the better to confound us.



Almost two decades ago I was involved in running LoAC scenarios as part of an NATO Reserve Officers competition which was attended by several former Warsaw Pact contestants (at the time Partners for Peace, now new NATO members.)

I was actually pleasantly surprised by their knowledge of the LoAC and their ability to put it into effect in practical challenges.

Unfortunately there is frequently a difference (even within our own forces) between academic knowledge and putting that knowledge into effect in the real world.

 :cheers:


----------



## vonGarvin

The whole area is a mess. The Rebels/Terrorists/NotRussians are all over the map and the Ukrainian language must not have a word for "proportionality"...


----------



## The Bread Guy

I wonder if this is going to be one of the ways Russia will offer to "help" at some point?  Russian MoD original in Russian - Google English translation below ....


> *In the Russian Defense Ministry formed a unique regiment for Emergency Response*
> 
> In suburban Alabino formed 100th separate regiment security which will be a part of logistics (MTO) of the Armed Forces.
> 
> The uniqueness of this military unit is in the fact that its main purpose - to provide comprehensive assistance in emergencies, man-made disasters, fires, floods on the territory of the Russian Federation and, if necessary - Strengthening (central?) military districts and fleets.
> 
> In the state of the regiment provided such unique units like repair and refurbishment platoon to eliminate potential accidents utilities on critical infrastructure garrisons on trucks with high cross, a company of heavy machines, equipped with graders and heavy equipment, similar to the one that worked during the floods in the Altai the current year and in the Far East in 2013
> 
> The regiment has a high mobility, and if necessary, it can quickly throw anywhere in Russia to assist in emergencies or man-made disasters.
> 
> Also in the regiment there platoon boats, car companies on various types of vehicles for transportation of materiel, including fuel and heavy tracked vehicles, unit bath and laundry service and field bakery.
> 
> August 31 in the suburban Alabino Deputy Defense Minister Gen. Dmitry Bulgakov Battle banner commander formed the 100th separate regiment security.
> 
> The event will also be accompanied by an exhibition of unique technique consisting in service with the regiment, visit the media infrastructure of the military camp, briefing Deputy Defense Minister Army General Dmitry Bulgakov.
> 
> Accreditation for the event will be held until 20:00 August 29, 2014 Responsible - Major Drobyshevskiy Vladimir Aleksandrovich, tel .: 8 (926) 464-34-41 E-mail: ps-mto@mil.ru.
> 
> The event starts at 11:00 am August 31, 2014 Address: Naro-Fominsk district, Moscow region. PPC 2nd Guards Motorized Rifle Taman Division (between pos. Kalininets and village. Yushkovo).


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest UKR, separatist info-machine maps attached (English, Russian respectively)

Also, it appears Russia is admitting some paras ended up in Ukraine by mistake - BAAAAAAD GPS!!!  More here (European Commission news aggregator).


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> .... it appears Russia is admitting some paras ended up in Ukraine by mistake - BAAAAAAD GPS!!!  More here (European Commission news aggregator).


Meanwhile, one of the more awkward handshakes in diplomatic history takes place in Minsk this hour ....





In the words of one of the parody Twitter feeds, "_as awkward as post-coital pillow talk in prison"_.


----------



## Kirkhill

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Latest UKR, separatist info-machine maps attached (English, Russian respectively)
> 
> Also, it appears Russia is admitting some paras ended up in Ukraine by mistake - BAAAAAAD GPS!!!  More here (European Commission news aggregator).



If only they didn't have to rely on that capitalist navigation system.  Things would be much better if the Franco-Russian Galileo system were up an running.....

Soyuz Launched from French Guiana Inserts First Two Galileo Satellites in Wrong Orbit

Link



> ... we would like to offer our sincere excuses to ESA and the European Commission....



With any luck at all the Franco-Russian Mistrals will be using the same navigation system and end up foundering somewhere.


----------



## Kirkhill

A Battalion of Little Green Men.....

Reuters



> "It looks like direct invasion," said Alexei.
> 
> He said he and a friend counted what they said was 38 armored personnel carriers, 2 fuelling trucks and numerous military transport vehicles full of people in Kolosky and the immediate vicinity.
> 
> Heavy shelling around the village began as soon as the armored cars arrived, though Alexei said it was not clear who was doing the shelling.
> 
> Both said they first saw new military hardware on Sunday, which included anti-aircraft systems as well as artillery guns.





> Kolosky is about 7 km (4 miles) from Dzerkalniy, a settlement where Ukrainian officials said they had detained the 10 Russian troops featured in the video footage.
> 
> Russian news agencies cited a source in the Russian defense ministry as saying the paratroopers had strayed into Ukraine by mistake during an exercise. One of the men said in video footage released by Ukraine's security services that they had been instructed to put on white arm-bands.
> 
> WHITE CIRCLES
> 
> The two witnesses who spoke to Reuters said the armed men did not have any insignia on their uniforms or vehicles that would explicitly identify them as Russian troops, but they said there were more subtle signs.
> 
> Dmitry Chistyukhin, a resident of Kolosky, said some of the men were trading their military-issue ready-to-eat meals with villagers for home-made preserved fruit and vegetables. He said the writing on the ration packs was Russian, not Ukrainian.
> 
> They had painted over identifying marks on their military vehicles with white circles, he added.
> 
> When residents approached their checkpoint and asked if they were allowed to travel on to the next village, called Komsomolske, the armed men asked, according to Chistyukhin: "Where's that?"



And finally - "We're from the government and we're here to help....."



> Another witness, Alexei, who was in Kolosky on Monday, said that the armed men, when asked who they were, told residents only that they had come "to protect them".
> 
> That was an answer given by Russian military officers after they first seized state buildings in Crimea.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Meanwhile, one of the more awkward handshakes in diplomatic history takes place in Minsk this hour ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In the words of one of the parody Twitter feeds, "_as awkward as post-coital pillow talk in prison"_.



Mr Poroshenko is a very big man


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest UKR (in English) and separatist (in Russian) maps attached ....


----------



## Edward Campbell

This is from the Council on Foreign Relations:

     "NATO's secretary general announced that the alliance will deploy forces at new bases (Guardian) in eastern Europe for the first time as it responds to the Ukraine crisis, a move that will likely trigger a strong reaction from
      Moscow. Meanwhile, Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko agreed during talks in Minsk (NYT) on Wednesday with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin that he will work on a cease-fire plan (FT) to end the separatist conflict
      in the east of the country, although he gave no details of what the plan may entail. Separatist rebels shelled a town in southeastern Ukraine on Wednesday (AP), raising fears of a counter-offensive on government-controlled areas of the region."

I agree with Ian Bremmer who wrote in the _Straits Times_ that, "Russia's conflict with the West over Ukraine will grow more dangerous. Tougher US and European sanctions won't change Russia's approach to Ukraine, because President Vladimir Putin is determined that this country will remain in Russia's orbit."


----------



## The Bread Guy

Interesting Tweet from Canada's NATO delegation:


> Geography can be tough. Here’s a guide for Russian soldiers who keep getting lost & ‘accidentally’ entering #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/RF3H4IXGSp







Map also attached in case link doesn't work.


----------



## Kirkhill

Russia pushing to link up with Crimea.  

Does the move along the coast indicate a reduction in the war aims?  Instead of taking the whole of the south east are they now just playing for a thin http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_CorridorDanzig Corridor to link with Crimea?



> NOVOAZOVSK, Ukraine (AP) — Pushing west in a new offensive along Ukraine's strategic coastline, heavily armed Russian-backed separatist forces captured new territory Wednesday far from their previous battles with government troops.
> 
> The bold offensive along a new southeastern front raised the prospect that the separatists are seeking to create a land link between Russia and Crimea, which also would give them control over the entire Azov Sea.
> 
> After a third day of heavy shelling that sent many residents fleeing, rebel fighters with dozens of tanks and armored vehicles entered Novoazovsk, a resort town of 40,000 on the Azov Sea, the mayor told The Associated Press.
> 
> Novoazovsk lies along the road linking Russia to the Ukrainian port of Mariupol and onto Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that Russia annexed in March.
> 
> The separatist attack appears to have caught government forces off guard, and they were scrambling Wednesday to build up defenses. The offensive also adds to growing evidence that the rebels receive Russian support.
> 
> Oleg Sidorkin, the mayor of Novoazovsk, told the AP by telephone that the rebel forces had rolled into town from positions near Ukraine's southernmost border with Russia.
> 
> To travel to this spot through Ukraine from the main front line around Donetsk and Luhansk, far to the north, the rebels would have had to cross territory controlled by government troops. The more logical conclusion is that they came across the nearby Russian border.
> 
> Ukraine and Western governments have long accused Russia of playing a direct role in the conflict, supplying troops and weaponry to the rebels. Russia consistently denies the claims, but its stance is increasingly dismissed abroad.
> 
> "Information, which in recent hours has gained another hard-facts confirmation, is that regular Russian units are operating in eastern Ukraine," Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Wednesday. "This information, coming from NATO and confirmed by our intelligence, is in fact unequivocal."
> 
> The U.S. government accused Russia on Wednesday of orchestrating a new military campaign in Ukraine that is helping rebel forces expand their fight and sending in tanks, rocket launchers and armored vehicles.
> 
> "These incursions indicate a Russian-directed counteroffensive is likely underway in Donetsk and Luhansk," State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki told reporters. She also voiced concern about overnight deliveries of materiel in southeast Ukraine near Novoazovsk and said Russia was being dishonest about its actions, even to its own people.
> 
> Russian forces, she said, are being sent 30 miles (48 kilometers) inside Ukraine, without them or their families knowing where they are going. She cited reports of burials in Russia for those who've died in Ukraine and wounded Russian soldiers being treated in a St. Petersburg hospital.
> 
> Associated Press journalists on the border have seen the rebels with a wide range of unmarked military equipment — including tanks, Buk missile launchers and armored personnel carriers — and have run into many Russians among the rebel fighters. Ukraine also captured 10 soldiers from a Russian paratrooper division Monday around Amvrosiivka, a town about 20 kilometers (12 miles) from the Russian border.
> 
> On Wednesday, AP reporters saw more than 20 shells fall around Novoazovsk in a one-hour span. Many people were leaving the town, while others were rushing back in to evacuate relatives. Later in the day, access from the west was blocked by Ukrainian soldiers and the presence of rebels in Novoazovsk could not be independently confirmed.
> 
> A spokesman for Ukraine's security council, Col. Andriy Lysenko, said he had no information that Novoazovsk had been occupied. Earlier, he said the shelling around the town was coming from both Ukrainian and Russian territory. Ukrainian security officials said nearby villages had also come under shelling.
> 
> The artillery shells in Novoazovsk appeared to be flying between rebel and government positions.
> 
> "It hit a tree, there was a blast and the shrapnel came down here," said Alexei Podlepentsov, an electrician at the Novoazovsk hospital, which was struck by shelling Tuesday.
> 
> In Mariupol, a city of 450,000 about 30 kilometers (20 miles) to the west, defenses were being built up. A brigade of Ukrainian forces arrived at the airport on Wednesday afternoon, while deep trenches were dug a day earlier on the city's edge. Other troops were blocking traffic from leaving the port heading east.
> 
> Ukraine has already lost more than 750 kilometers (450 miles) of coastline in Crimea, along with a major naval port and significant mineral rights in the Black Sea.
> 
> If the separatists were to seize a land bridge to Crimea that would be a further loss of more than 250 kilometers (150 miles) of coastline. This would also give them or Russia control over the entire Azov Sea and any offshore oil and gas reserves.
> 
> This would leave Ukraine with about 450 kilometers (270 miles) of coastline to the west of Crimea.
> 
> Fighting also persisted elsewhere Wednesday, and Lysenko said 13 Ukrainian troops had been killed over the past day.
> 
> In Donetsk, the largest rebel-held city further north, at least three people were killed on a main road when their cars were hit by shrapnel from falling artillery shells.
> 
> Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart, Petro Poroshenko, met Tuesday for their first one-on-one meeting, but there was no indication of a swift resolution to the fighting that has claimed at least 2,000 civilian lives.
> 
> Poroshenko called the talks "overall positive" and said Putin had accepted the principles of his peace plan, which includes an amnesty for those in the east not accused of serious crimes and calls for some decentralization of power.
> 
> Putin, however, insisted that only Kiev could secure a cease-fire deal with the separatists, saying the conflict was "Ukraine's business" because Russia was not in the fight.
> 
> "I think we are in for more bad news," said Maria Lipman, an independent political analyst in Moscow. "This may be the first step toward what eventually may become de-escalation, but it is not a direct step."
> 
> German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke with Putin on Wednesday about the situation in Ukraine, both governments said. Merkel stressed Russia's responsibility for a de-escalation and for surveillance of its border, her spokesman, Steffen Seibert, said in a statement.
> 
> Ukraine wants the rebels to hand back the territory they have captured in eastern Ukraine, while Putin wants to retain some sort of leverage over the mostly Russian-speaking region so Ukraine does not join NATO or the European Union. Putin has so far ignored requests from the rebels to be annexed by Russia.
> 
> In Moscow, Denis Pushilin, one of the leaders of the pro-Russia insurgency, told reporters he had no information about whether Russian soldiers had entered Ukraine near Novoazovsk. But he said the Ukrainian separatists have been joined by many volunteers from Russia and also Serbia.
> 
> AP reporters in eastern Ukraine have heard a variety of Russian accents from all over the country among the rebel fighters.
> 
> ___
> 
> Jim Heintz in Kiev, Ukraine, Nicolae Dumitrache in Donetsk, Monika Scislowska in Warsaw, Poland, Kirsten Grieshaber in Berlin, and Lynn Berry and Laura Mills in Moscow contributed to this report.



http://bigstory.ap.org/article/government-held-ukraine-town-hit-rebel-shells


----------



## a_majoor

The sad thing is while this is actually a big deal, it is virtually ignored by the news now:

http://reason.com/blog/2014/08/27/from-russia-to-ukraine



> *Russia Hardly Even Trying to Disguise 'Stealth' Invasion of Ukraine*
> Zenon Evans|Aug. 27, 2014 5:00 pm
> 
> World Economic ForumWorld Economic ForumSo much for those peace talks. Russia's military launched another attack in Ukraine, according to Kiev.
> 
> From The New York Times:
> 
> Tanks, artillery and infantry have crossed from Russia into an unbreached part of eastern Ukraine in recent days, attacking Ukrainian forces and causing panic and wholesale retreat not only in this small border town but a wide swath of territory, in what Ukrainian and Western military officials described on Wednesday as a stealth invasion.
> 
> The attacks outside this city and in an area to the north essentially have opened a new, third front in the war in eastern Ukraine between government forces and pro-Russian separatists, along with the fighting outside the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk.
> 
> Exhausted, filthy and dismayed, Ukrainian soldiers staggering out of Novoazovsk for safer territory said Tuesday they were cannon fodder for the forces coming from Russia. As they spoke, tank shells whistled in from the east and exploded nearby.
> 
> State Department Spokeswoman Jen Psaki describes it as a likely "Russian-directed counteroffensive."
> 
> For what it's worth, the self-designed leader of the so-called People's Republic of Donetsk assured last week that something like the current scenario would happen soon.
> 
> The Associated Press (AP) suggests that "the bold offensive along a new southeastern front" indicates that "separatists are seeking to create a land link between Russia and Crimea, which also would give them control over the entire Azov Sea." Logistically, it would be near impossible for fighters in the separatist-held cities of Donetsk and Luhansk to have reached this front on their own, the mayor of the newly-embattled city of Novoazovsk told AP. The fighters would have to cross a large amount of Ukrainian-controlled territory, whereas Russia could easily send troops from just across the border.
> 
> Although Russian regular soldiers were captured in Ukraine on Monday and admitted that they are, in fact, Russian soldiers, the Kremlin continues to deny any involvement, and claims it can't really help the situation. Says President Vladimir Putin:
> 
> We, Russia, cannot talk about any cease-fire conditions whatsoever, or possible agreements between Kiev, Donetsk and Luhansk. We can only facilitate the creation of an environment of trust in the course of this possible and much needed, in my opinion, negotiation process.
> 
> Putin does admit that sometimes soldiers accidentally cross the border.
> 
> Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who insists that the war is a "domestic armed conflict," says that he intends to send another humanitarian aid convoy into Ukraine, despite objections from the international community and the fact that the last one brought little aid (but did bring plenty of armored vehicles) and stole Ukrainian military equipment on its way out.
> 
> About 400 Russian mothers have just told Russian media that it's their Russian soldier sons coming home to Russia in Russian body bags, or you know, sometimes just disappearing without a word.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest UKR (in Ukrainian), separatist (in Russian) maps.

A few tidbits ....

_" '4,000 Russians are fighting for Ukraine rebels' "_ (European Commission news aggregator)
_"Poroshenko cancels visit to Turkey, calls urgent Security and Defense Council meeting due to use of Russian troops in Ukraine"_ (Interfax-Ukraine)
_"US says Russia 'directly involved' in Ukraine fighting"_ (Agence France-Presse)


----------



## The Bread Guy

A bit more of the latest:

_"UN Security Council to hold emergency mtg on #Ukraine at 2pm ET, requested by Lithuania, #NATO member & #Russia neighbor"_ (CNN, via Twitter)
Russian media:  _"*Hundreds of people have gathered in front of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry in Kiev, demanding resignation of President Petro Poroshenko and the defense minister over the poor handling of the military operation in the southeast.*  The demonstrators, many of whom were mothers and wives of the soldiers involved in the fighting in the Donetsk and Lugansk Regions, have blocked traffic at one of the capital’s arterial roads, the Vozdukhoflotsky Boulevard.  They called on the army to urgently send reinforcements, including tanks and other heavy military vehicles, to the city of Ilovaysk in the Donetsk Region.  This strategic town was retaken by the self-defense forces after several days of fighting on Wednesday, which led to the encirclement of a large group of Kiev’s troops.  The protesters also insisted on the resignation of defense minister Valery Geletey and all other top commanders of Kiev’s so-called “anti-terrorist operation” in southeast Ukraine ...."_ (RT Online)
_"Where U.S. President Barack Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have failed to make Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledge his ever-more-overt invasion of Ukraine and think about pulling back, Valentina Melnikova, the head of Russia’s famous Soldiers’ Mothers Committee, might just have a chance.  Early Thursday morning, Melnikova started getting phone calls from Russian army bosses. All of them, from the deputy defense minister to the paratrooper division commanders, wanted to meet with the great matriarch of the Russian military. She had accused the entire high command, along with Commander-in-Chief Vladimir Putin of invading Ukraine and of committing a crime against Russian citizens by sending Russian soldiers to "the bloody battlefields" without declaring the war, without signing legal papers with the servicemen, without letting Russian mothers know where exactly their drafted sons ended up dying ...."_ (The Daily Beast)


----------



## Infantryman2b

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russian-and-ukraine-troops-battle-in-south-prompting-fears-of-widescale-invasion/2014/08/28/04b614f4-9a6e-40f4-aa21-4f49104cf0e4_story.html

Russian troops have blasted there way across the border. Things just escalated big time.


----------



## Kirkhill

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> _"Where U.S. President Barack Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have failed to make Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledge his ever-more-overt invasion of Ukraine and think about pulling back, Valentina Melnikova, the head of Russia’s famous Soldiers’ Mothers Committee, might just have a chance.  Early Thursday morning, Melnikova started getting phone calls from Russian army bosses. All of them, from the deputy defense minister to the paratrooper division commanders, wanted to meet with the great matriarch of the Russian military. She had accused the entire high command, along with Commander-in-Chief Vladimir Putin of invading Ukraine and of committing a crime against Russian citizens by sending Russian soldiers to "the bloody battlefields" without declaring the war, without signing legal papers with the servicemen, without letting Russian mothers know where exactly their drafted sons ended up dying ...."_ (The Daily Beast)



This may the most important piece of the puzzle today.

The problem is that if Putin is forced to bring his war out into the open then his ability to massage the message is reduced.  Reality becomes less what State Media says it is and more what the Mothers say it is.

This in turn could cause Putin to take more gambles, commit more troops openly and pick up the tempo. It might also cause him to reduce his strategic goal to trying to control the coastal strip between Crimea and Novoazovsk.  In one sense the Ukrainians might be better off letting him have that highway and then make him try to defend it - a 500 mile kilometer by 10 mile 20 kilometer corridor with the sea on one side.  IEDs can be your friend.

I still believe that Putin is constrained by the lack of quality ground troops and that if he were able to launch a divisional/corps assault he would have done so long before now.  I also think that the longer he waits the less likely he will be able to carry the Oligarchs and the Mothers with him - which puts himself under an "existential threat".

Edit to get my distances right - still a long, skinny line of communication


----------



## Kirkhill

And here was the primary purpose of that "Humanitarian Convoy".



> LuhMash-43 LLC Luhansk mechanical engineering plant specialized in production of high precision mechanical parts and engineering assemblies has relocated its production to Russia's Chuvash Republic, according to 'Vesti' Russian Internet publication.



Ukraine has been a key supplier of technical goods to the Russian military for decades.

I suggest this is yet another sign of things NOT going well for Vlad.  He tried to prevent Ukraine leaving his orbit and failed.  He tried to prevent them aligning with the West and failed.  He tried to divide Ukraine - and I suggest - this move indicates that he doesn't believe he can do that effectively.  Or in other words he is tacitly admitting failure.

This ties in with my belief that his war aims are now limited to the fig-leaf of a coastal highway link to Crimea.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> .... if Putin is forced to bring his war out into the open then his ability to massage the message is reduced.  Reality becomes less what State Media says it is and more what the Mothers say it is ....


How do you think this'll play into that calculus?


> Almost 60 percent of Russians consider the current crisis in Ukraine a civil war, and the same share of those polled do not expect the strain in Russia-Ukraine relations to develop into a ‘hot’ military conflict.
> 
> The latest research conducted by the VTSIOM public opinion center shows the number of Russian citizens who call the Ukrainian crisis a full scale civil war at 59 percent, double the 27 percent of six months ago.
> 
> Only six percent of those polled call the events in Ukraine a coup d’état, compared to about25 percent in late February and 16 percent call the events just anarchy andarbitrariness, compared to 29 percent in the beginning of the year.
> 
> For the first time a group of Russians, 15 percent of those polled, called the events in Ukraine terrorism and genocide of civilians.
> 
> According to the poll most Russians do not expect a war between Russia and Ukraine in the near future – 15 percent called such a scenario absolutely impossible and another 44 percent estimated its probability as extremely low. Only 28 percent of those polled said they considered such a military conflict possible ....





			
				Kirkhill said:
			
		

> It might also cause him to reduce his strategic goal to trying to control the coastal strip between Crimea and Novoazovsk.  In one sense the Ukrainians might be better off letting him have that highway and then make him try to defend it - a 500 mile by 10 mile corridor with the sea on one side.  IEDs can be your friend.


That's a LOT of territory to take _*and*_ to hold, especially if this is the case ....


			
				Kirkhill said:
			
		

> I still believe that Putin is constrained by the lack of quality ground troops and that if he were able to launch a divisional/corps assault he would have done so long before now.


.... between the government-allowed militias, and "Partisan 101" training alleged to be under way, for all of Ukraine's problems, it could still be a tough go for Mother Russia.


----------



## Kirkhill

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> How do you think this'll play into that calculus?....



It certainly doesn't help Vlad.

And I agree with you.  It could be a rough go for Mother Russia.  It could end up being like the dog that finally caught the car....







Now what?


----------



## George Wallace

Isn't it curious that 'his other Front', Chechnya, is not in the news; along with all Russia's troubles in the other 'Stans?


----------



## Kirkhill

I think he is accumulating a lot of unfinished business.


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Interesting Tweet from Canada's NATO delegation:
> 
> 
> 
> Geography can be tough. Here’s a guide for Russian soldiers who keep getting lost & ‘accidentally’ entering #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/RF3H4IXGSp
Click to expand...

And here's Russia's NATO delegation's response:


> Helping our Canadian colleagues to catch up with contemporary geography of #Europe @CanadaNATO







OOOoooooooooo ..............


----------



## MilEME09

Read as, "The world according to Russia" the sad thing is, with reports of Russian forces crossing the border in force I doubt anything will greatly change, Putin has an objective in mind and he will probably go for it come hell or high water. Some articles I've read call this Russia creating a "Danzig corridor" to Crimea. While I believe Ukrainian forces have proven capable it would take stroke of luck to stop the bear cold, or serious outside help which would have to come from the Anti-Russia Countries like Poland and Georgia.


Photo released by NATO


----------



## CougarKing

Meanwhile...some can view this as the US response to Russian armoured columns spotted in Ukraine, as reported above.

Defense News



> *US Military To Send Tanks To E. Europe for Drills*
> Aug. 28, 2014 - 03:12PM   |  By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
> 
> WASHINGTON — US Army troops equipped with tanks will head to Eastern Europe soon to reassure NATO allies anxious over Russia’s intervention in Ukraine, Pentagon officials said Thursday.
> About 600 troops from the 1st Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division are due to deploy in October to Poland and the Baltic states for training exercises with alliance members, replacing paratroopers from the 173rd Airborne Brigade, said spokeswoman Lt. Col. Vanessa Hillman.
> 
> “It’s a three-month rotation,” Hillman said. The drills are “focused on small unit and leader training.”
> 
> Unlike the outgoing unit, the troops from the “Iron Horse brigade,” based in Fort Hood, Texas, will deploy with M-1 Abrams tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, she said.
> 
> US commanders have organized an array of exercises and training efforts on NATO’s eastern border to reassure allies dismayed over Russia’s support of separatists in Ukraine. Washington also has sent F-16 fighter jets to Poland and joined air policing missions over the Baltic states.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## The Bread Guy

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> Meanwhile...some can view this as the US response to Russian armoured columns spotted in Ukraine, as reported above.
> 
> 
> 
> US Military To Send Tanks To E. Europe for Drills
> Aug. 28, 2014 - 03:12PM   |  By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
> 
> WASHINGTON — US Army troops equipped with tanks will head to Eastern Europe soon to reassure NATO allies anxious over Russia’s intervention in Ukraine, Pentagon officials said Thursday.
> About 600 troops from the 1st Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division are due to deploy in October to Poland and the Baltic states for training exercises with alliance members, replacing paratroopers from the 173rd Airborne Brigade, said spokeswoman Lt. Col. Vanessa Hillman.
> 
> “It’s a three-month rotation,” Hillman said. The drills are “focused on small unit and leader training.”
> 
> Unlike the outgoing unit, the troops from the “Iron Horse brigade,” based in Fort Hood, Texas, will deploy with M-1 Abrams tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, she said.
> 
> US commanders have organized an array of exercises and training efforts on NATO’s eastern border to reassure allies dismayed over Russia’s support of separatists in Ukraine. Washington also has sent F-16 fighter jets to Poland and joined air policing missions over the Baltic states.
> 
> (...EDITED)
> 
> 
> 
> Defense News
Click to expand...

U.S. imperialist tanks on Russia's border - when will Russia's encirclement/oppression end?!?!?


----------



## The Bread Guy

He says ....


			
				milnews.ca said:
			
		

> .... Russian media:  _"*Hundreds of people have gathered in front of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry in Kiev, demanding resignation of President Petro Poroshenko and the defense minister over the poor handling of the military operation in the southeast.*  The demonstrators, many of whom were mothers and wives of the soldiers involved in the fighting in the Donetsk and Lugansk Regions, have blocked traffic at one of the capital’s arterial roads, the Vozdukhoflotsky Boulevard.  They called on the army to urgently send reinforcements, including tanks and other heavy military vehicles, to the city of Ilovaysk in the Donetsk Region.  This strategic town was retaken by the self-defense forces after several days of fighting on Wednesday, which led to the encirclement of a large group of Kiev’s troops.  The protesters also insisted on the resignation of defense minister Valery Geletey and all other top commanders of Kiev’s so-called “anti-terrorist operation” in southeast Ukraine ...."_ (RT Online) ....


.... she says (Google Translation from original in Ukrainian from the UKR MoD):


> *Soldiers volunteer battalions, community activists and volunteers discussed with the Ministry of Defence and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine painful issue of ATO*
> 
> Today, August 28, the Central building of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Povitroflotskyi Avenue came over a thousand people. Among them were a mother and wife, relatives and friends of members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - members of the antiterrorist operation, veterans of military service, combatants, commanders and soldiers of volunteer departments, representatives of voluntary organizations.
> 
> The main issues that interested citizens concerning emergency units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, performing tasks under Ilovajskij and other towns of Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
> 
> Also discussed about the existing problems of logistics, psychological and medical support soldiers - members of ATO, providing them arms and ammunition, including heavy weapons, the prospects of rotation of forces, the problem of improving the regulatory framework and more ....


----------



## cupper

So how soon before we see the Bush Carrier Group transit through the Dardanelles, Sea of Marmara and the Bosphorus?


----------



## The Bread Guy

.... this time from the Presidents of UKR and Russia (both official English translations) on whazzup over the past day or two, for the record.



			
				cupper said:
			
		

> So how soon before we see the Bush Carrier Group transit through the Dardanelles, Sea of Marmara and the Bosphorus?


Sooner rather than later *IF* (and it's as mighty big "if") this guy and this guy are right about Russia wanting to cut off Ukraine's Black Sea access ....




.... although I'm betting it's WAY too much for even the Russians to bite off - and hold.


----------



## Kirkhill

I believe that map accurately describes the original war aims back in the spring.  Now, I think/hope that the scope has been reduced to just the coastal corridor.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Usual maps attached (note that new flesh-coloured bit on the UKR map in the far south - start of alleged push toward Odesssa?), with some goodies from the UKR info-machine:

_"NSDC decision: Ukraine asks the UN, NATO, EU, OSCE and strategic partners for help"_ (UKR President's Office)
_"Security Service urges citizens to refrain from panic deliberately created on the Internet"_ (UKR President's Office)


----------



## CougarKing

Here's an English version of one of the maps posted in Russian at the post immediately above:






From the Business Insider


----------



## GR66

As things look like they are heating up (again) in Ukraine what should Canada's position be?  It's easy to get caught up in the passions of "protecting poor Ukraine from the evil Russian Bear" but what does a detached, unemotional analysis of the situation suggest we should do?

Ukraine is 17% Russian by ethnicity.  They are Russia's 4th largest export market (5.7% of exports) and 3rd largest import market (5.5% of imports).  By comparison, Ukraine doesn't even make the top 20 export of import markets for Canada, the United States or Germany.  Obviously the change in government direction in the Ukraine from Russian-leaning to Western-leaning is hoped/designed to change that.  

From a Russian point of view would this be seen as Western expansion at their expense and a direct economic and strategic threat to their country?  I'm in no way trying to paint Putin and the Russians as "good guys" in this situation.  I'm simply trying to point out that the Western supported take-over of the government of the Ukraine by the pro-EU elements has much more serious negative effects for Russian than would be faced by the West if Ukraine remained pro-Russian.

That being the case, what level of Canadian involvement in this conflict makes sense in terms of our national interest?  The Canadian government has been rather bullish so far in its opposition to the Russians.  Is this the correct approach for us to take?  We're putting combat units (our CF-18s) right up to the Russian border in the Baltic States.  How far should we push this?  Is Ukraine (or the Baltic States for that matter) important enough to our self interest to risk military confrontation with Russia?  Are they worth deploying ground forces for their defence?  Are they ultimately worth risking outright military conflict with Russia if it drifts into that situation?


----------



## CougarKing

"The straw that broke the camel's back?" 



> *Ukraine to seek Nato membership, says PM Yatsenyuk*
> 
> 
> Arseny Yatsenyuk said the government was sending a bill to MPs urging that Ukraine's non-bloc status be cancelled.
> 
> The remarks come as Nato holds an emergency meeting to discuss the crisis in eastern Ukraine
> 
> (...)
> 
> "The government is entering a bill to Verkhovna Rada [parliament] about the cancellation of Ukraine's non-bloc status and resumption of Ukraine's course for Nato membership," Mr Yatsenyuk said
> 
> 
> Source: BBC


----------



## Edward Campbell

GR66 said:
			
		

> As things look like they are heating up (again) in Ukraine what should Canada's position be?  It's easy to get caught up in the passions of "protecting poor Ukraine from the evil Russian Bear" but what does a detached, unemotional analysis of the situation suggest we should do?
> 
> Ukraine is 17% Russian by ethnicity.  They are Russia's 4th largest export market (5.7% of exports) and 3rd largest import market (5.5% of imports).  By comparison, Ukraine doesn't even make the top 20 export of import markets for Canada, the United States or Germany.  Obviously the change in government direction in the Ukraine from Russian-leaning to Western-leaning is hoped/designed to change that.
> 
> From a Russian point of view would this be seen as Western expansion at their expense and a direct economic and strategic threat to their country?  I'm in no way trying to paint Putin and the Russians as "good guys" in this situation.  I'm simply trying to point out that the Western supported take-over of the government of the Ukraine by the pro-EU elements has much more serious negative effects for Russian than would be faced by the West if Ukraine remained pro-Russian.
> 
> That being the case, what level of Canadian involvement in this conflict makes sense in terms of our national interest?  The Canadian government has been rather bullish so far in its opposition to the Russians.  Is this the correct approach for us to take?  We're putting combat units (our CF-18s) right up to the Russian border in the Baltic States.  How far should we push this?  Is Ukraine (or the Baltic States for that matter) important enough to our self interest to risk military confrontation with Russia?  Are they worth deploying ground forces for their defence?  Are they ultimately worth risking outright military conflict with Russia if it drifts into that situation?




In my _opinion_ the primary 'driver' of our "bullish" position is domestic politics: namely the large Ukrainian-Canadian _diaspora_.

Ukraine has no business being in NATO and NATO should stay out of Ukraine ... *but* Germany can and should take a lead in smacking Putin back down to size: economically and politically. It will hurt, but we, the West (I often say the US led West but the US appears to be unable to lead anything these days) can and should punish Russia, beginning with real, painful economic and political sanctions. If, and it is a highly unlikely "if," Russia decides to challenge us militarily then we *can* defeat them, massively and painfully, there, too.


----------



## Kirkhill

A Moscow appreciation of war aims?

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.ca/



> Paul Goble
> 
> 
> 
> Staunton, August 29 – “Voyennoye obozreniye,” an online Moscow journal directed at the Russian military and military analysts, has published today  list of seven targets Russian forces are likely to attack in the course of what it describes as “the probable future of the war for Novorossiya.”
> 
> Of course, which ones the Kremlin and Russian commanders will attack and in what order depends not only on Ukrainian resistance but also on the reaction of the West to Moscow’s moves. But this list itself says something about the nature and scope of Vladimir Putin’s intentions in Ukraine (topwar.ru/57093-veroyatnoe-buduschee-voyny-za-novorossiyu.html).
> 
> While the fighting in eastern Ukraine is intense and while not everything is going well for Russian and pro-Moscow forces, the post suggests that it is nonetheless possible to speak about “major breakouts” as it describes these actions or attacks as they would certainly be perceived by the Ukrainian side.
> 
> The first target, the “Voyennoye obozreniye” article says, is Mariupol, where Ukrainian forces have concentrated themselves and from which they must be dislodged so that the insurgents can continue to be supplied by Russia.
> 
> The second, it continues, is Volnovakha, again a site where Ukrainian forces are concentrated and one that represents a potential “place des armes for cutting off the Azov group of forces from the main ones.
> 
> The third is Donetsk and especially the airport there which currently is in Ukrainian hands. “The enemy must be driven out of well-fortified places where it has already been sitting for two to three months,” the Moscow publication says.
> 
> The fourth target is Debaltsevo which must be taken by a flanking operation in order to destroy “the lion’s share” of Ukrainian artillery and thus defeat the Ukrainian forces in the region as a whole.
> 
> The fifth is the Lisichansk-Rubezhnoye-Severodonetsk area, a naturally defendable position which the Moscow journal says Ukrainian forces have been fortifying in the course of recent weeks and from which they must be driven.
> 
> The sixth is Luhansk and the areas around it to relieve pressure on the insurgents there.  And the seventh and perhaps most important are efforts to prevent Ukraine from bringing reserves into play by mobilizing the population. The journal implied that military attacks must be coordinated with the requirements of information war in this regard.
> 
> In the immediate future, the publication says, there is going to be “a difficult struggle” for Novorossiya.” Indeed, it says, “what is taking place now can be compared with the historic battle near Moscow” during World War II.  But just like with that battle, it says, pro-Russian forces can change the course of this war.
> 
> And Moscow’s “Voyennoye obozreniye” concludes that the insurgents can look forward to a better future if they do. Those forces, it says, “need [only] resist for a couple more months, and then the forces of the [Ukrainian] junta will become” a much less serious problem for Novorossiya and Russia as well.




Just as a reminder...

When this exercise started in the spring there were "uprisings" in Kharkiv, Odessa, Donetsk and Lugansk.  All of the oblasts of the south east were at risk.

Kharkiv and Odessa have been quiet for months now.  The cities of Donetsk and Lugansk are isolated from their oblasts by contested ground.

The Russians and Ukrainians in those contested areas are now yelling at each other "We have you surrounded. Surrender" "No. You surrender.  We have you surrounded".

As long as there is a contested area then both sides can declare victory but neither side can control the situation.

Having said that Ukraine generally has been successful to date in isolating, containing, reducing and disrupting the rebel area in their Southeast.  But they still have a long ways to go.....especially with Russia feeding just enough oxygen to keep the fire alight.

WRT NATO - I think the issue is how long will Poland continue to be constrained by NATO.  When will Tusk start "assisting" Ukraine independently and more directly.


----------



## Kirkhill

And here's the problem with NATO (and the EU)






They can't see each other and they all speak different languages......


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> A Moscow appreciation of war aims?
> 
> http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.ca/


Very good catch - thanks for sharing.



			
				Kirkhill said:
			
		

> .... The Russians and Ukrainians in those contested areas are now yelling at each other "We have you surrounded. Surrender" "No. You surrender.  We have you surrounded" ....


Leading to headlines like _“Separatists say will allow ‘trapped’ Ukrainian forces to withdraw”_ and _“Putin calls on pro-Russian rebels to let Ukraine troops leave encirclement” _



			
				Kirkhill said:
			
		

> I think the issue is how long will Poland continue to be constrained by NATO.  When will Tusk start "assisting" Ukraine independently and more directly.


Given Poland's history, and having that bit o' Russia right on its border, that WILL make an interesting-to-watch potential wild card.


----------



## jollyjacktar

Shared from the National Post.



> Canadian troops off to Europe as part of NATO plan to rein in Putin’s ambitions
> Matthew Fisher, Postmedia News | August 28, 2014
> 
> As many as 1,000 Canadian troops at a time are expected to soon be constantly rotating through Europe. It will be the first time that Canada has so many troops across the pond since it closed two bases in Germany’s Black Forest when the Cold War ended.
> 
> The Canadians are to be part of an urgent NATO plan to try to rein in Vladimir Putin’s revanchist ambitions in eastern Europe, which appears to be rapidly transitioning this week from a covert to an overt war for eastern Ukraine with the opening of a new front south of Donetsk.
> 
> The alliance is following the Pentagon’s script for the forward deployment of U.S. Marines in northern Australia because of its relative proximity to China. NATO’s civilian boss, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, told me in an interview a couple of months ago that what the Marines were doing Down Under was a likely model for alliance deployments in eastern Europe.
> 
> Rasmussen confirmed to European journalists ahead of next week’s NATO summit in Wales that the alliance will open new bases in eastern Europe. Troops from countries such as Canada will rotate through these bases for stays of several months at a time. But Rasmussen went further, declaring the creation of a spearhead within an existing rapid reaction force to deal with potential emergencies in the east.
> 
> By not permanently stationing troops in Poland or the three Baltic statelets, NATO will save on some infrastructure costs as well as the considerable costs of housing and schooling the troops’ families.
> 
> The most important selling point is political. NATO can claim that the bases are not permanent, which is a much easier sell in western Europe and Canada. Semantics aside, by talking about this now rather than waiting for the summit, Rasmussen was probably trying to pre-empt opposition from German Chancellor Angela Merkel who remains wobbly about confronting Moscow because her country, like most of western Europe, is heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas.
> 
> Merkel was raised in Communist East Germany and speaks Russian well. She is regarded as the only western leader who understands Putin. Whether this is true or not, Merkel has been the West’s only real interlocutor with the Russian strongman since he began his Ukrainian gambit.
> 
> It has taken awhile but there have been rumblings recently that Merkel’s patience with Putin has been wearing thin. However, Germany and several other NATO allies still fear that by shoring up its feeble eastern flank the alliance could provoke Russia’s unpredictable strongman to do something even more dangerous.
> 
> However, with Russia occupying Crimea, having acknowledged this week that some of its troops somehow found themselves about 50 kilometres inside Ukraine by mistake and having recently held funerals in the northwestern Russian city of Pskov for Russian troops killed in Ukraine, the question really is: Who is provoking whom?
> 
> Poland has for some time wanted NATO to permanently base two army brigades there. That will not happen but NATO is legally obliged to defend Poland as well as Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. The three former Soviet territories are particularly anxious because they each have substantial Russian minorities whose alleged interests Putin has vowed to defend.
> 
> Since Russia seized Crimea in March, NATO has run a series of back-to-back exercises in eastern Europe involving ground troops. It has sent warships into the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. It is quadrupling the number of fighter jets it has on call to scramble to defend alliance airspace from potential Russian incursions. But none of that, nor until now fairly modest economic sanctions, has curbed Putin’s appetite for bloody mischief in Ukraine.
> 
> With virtually no domestic political discussion about what Canadian Forces might end up having to do in eastern Europe, the Harper government as well as allies such as Britain have provided NATO with a template for how future deployments will try to assist NATO’s easternmost allies.
> 
> HMCS Regina was recently replaced by HMCS Toronto in waters near the Black Sea. Infantry from Alberta that had been on exercise with Polish and American troops in Poland were replaced last month by a somewhat larger group of infanteers from Ontario as part of a process that is likely to become commonplace as NATO’s strategy to contain Russia evolves. Four Canadian CF-18s from Quebec that had been training with the Romania Air Force, are about to become something like an aerial tripwire when they go on armed alert next week at Siauliai, Lithuania, which at one time was one of the Soviet Union’s biggest airbases.
> 
> The Kremlin argues that such developments contravene the NATO-Russia Act of 1997. NATO insists that the agreement is not binding if the security environment has changed. Even if you accept the increasingly absurd Russian assertion that it none of its troops have been involved in fighting inside Ukraine and has not been arming insurgents or directing them, with tens of thousands of Russian troops now mustered near the Ukrainian border, the security situation in Europe has obviously changed for the worse.
> 
> As Jane’s Defence correspondent Bruce Jones wrote Thursday, what Russian forces have been up to in the past few days inside Ukraine “will entirely wrong foot the NATO Summit, overturning prepared plans and statements as heads of states will be trying to decide on a constantly moving situation.”
> 
> Germany’s Merkel will have a big say in what is coming after these latest Russian provocations inside Ukraine. If she finally concludes that enough is enough, all bets are off. Canadians may have to quickly get used to the idea that their troops are operating close to the front lines in an extremely volatile situation.


----------



## The Bread Guy

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> "The straw that broke the camel's back?"


And here's NATO SG Rasmussen's initial response to UKR wanting to join NATO:


> _*Question : (Wall Street Journal) Prime Minister Yatseniuk this morning said he wanted Ukraine to move toward NATO membership and I wanted to ask for your reaction to that whether it came up at all at today’s meeting and whether it will be discussed at the Summit in Wales.*_
> 
> _*Secretary General :*_ First of all let me stress that we fully respect Ukraine’s decisions as regards Ukraine’s security policy and alliance affiliations. This is a fundamental principle that each and every nation has an inherent right to decide itself on security policies and its alliance affiliations.I’m not going to interfere with political discussions in Ukraine but let me remind you of NATO’s decision taken at the Bucharest summit in 2008 according to which Ukraine will become a member of NATO provided of course Ukraine so wishes and provided that Ukraine fulfil the necessary criteria. In the meantime Ukraine has decided to pursue a so called non-alliance policy, we fully respect that, we fully respect if the Ukrainian Parliament decides to change that policy because we adhere to the principle that each and every nation has a right to decide itself without interference from outside and we hope that other nations adhere to same principle.


----------



## Kirkhill

Link to Telegraph's live feed for today

Edit: (Can't access it just now)  Found!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11062950/Ukraine-Russia-crisis-live.html

Summary:

Ukraine want's material and materiel help. Romania and Poland very concerned and calling for NATO to assist.
Sweden and Finland equally concerned and signing closer co-operation agreements with NATO
Old NATO, as exemplified, by the Netherlands don't want to know and wish the problem would go away.
NATO members will not increase their budgets, will not send troops to Ukraine but will send troops to Poland, Romania and the Baltic States (tripwire light).
NATO will pass the hat and throw some spare change into a trust fund for Ukraine to buy materiel.
EU is equally disinclined to do anything but might increase sanctions if Russia doesn't cease and desist at some point indeterminate.
France has accepted there are Russian troops on Ukraine soil and accepts that sanctions (Mistral deliveries) might have to be imposed at some point indeterminate.

WRT the situation on the ground - despite the Russian map showing the contrary - Telegraph's reporter indicates that Mariupol is not cut off.  He drove into the city and tweeted from there.

Finally with respect to Canada's involvement I would note that the nations most concerned by Vlad appear to be those that share a border with him: Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Finland and Sweden.  Other concerned nations at risk include Georgia, Romania, Moldova, Norway and Denmark (Greenland bumps into Russia).  

I would note that Canada also shares a border with Russia.  

How many salami slices of our Arctic claim are we willing to cede to Russia before determining that the pot we are in is too hot and that we are at risk of being boiled?

Do we have internal communities that could be exploited by Russia in the same manner as the Donbas coal miners?


----------



## Colin Parkinson

While I have noticed a significant increase in Russian and other slavic languages on the streets of Vancouver, i suspect a healthy amount of that population has no interest in stirring up trouble in Canada. in fact the rather large Ukrainian population will be pushing for more help to their mother country, most who grew up on stories of Soviet abuse.


----------



## Kirkhill

Colin: 

I wasn't necessarily thinking of ethnic Russians,  more along the lines of what we used to call "fellow travelers".


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> I wasn't necessarily thinking of ethnic Russians,  more along the lines of what we used to call "fellow travelers".


More like these guys?  They're certainly doing their best to help spread the anti-Ukrainian side of the narrative.


----------



## Kirkhill

Interesting GIF of the Ukrainian maps Tony has been posting.

August 21 to 28 by Business Insider.

Link http://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-fighting-war-invasion-russia-separatists-2014-8


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukrainian instability?

How about Putin's instability?



> It's tempting to assume that Vladimir Putin always has a master plan.
> 
> And why not? He's cunning and shrewd. He's steely and ruthless. He's cold and calculating. And his political life has been so charmed that many Russians, as well as many Kremlin-watchers, think he has an almost supernatural -- or at least preternatural -- ability to come out on top.
> 
> It's also long been conventional wisdom that important decisions in Russia are made by a so-called "collective Putin," a cabal of oligarchs and security-service veterans close to the Kremlin leader who make up the inner sanctum of Russia's deep state. It reached decisions by consensus with Putin acting as the ultimate decider and arbiter.
> 
> But recently, Kremlin policy appears erratic, inconsistent, and sometimes downright incoherent.
> 
> Over the past couple weeks it appeared that Putin was looking for a face-saving way to wind down the conflict in eastern Ukraine.
> 
> But even as the Kremlin leader was meeting with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on August 26, he was escalating the conflict and sending in Russian troops.
> 
> Is that all just part of the plan? Or is Putin himself becoming erratic? And is the collective Putin coming unglued?
> 
> There have certainly been signs that this might be the case. There have been whispers in Moscow, for example, that Putin has become increasingly withdrawn and isolated. He's appearing live on television less frequently, and when he does it only adds to the speculation that something isn't quite right.
> 
> For example, Putin was scheduled to make a major address to the nation on August 7, only to have the speech cancelled without explanation.
> 
> Then, on August 14, the Russian president addressed a group of officials and lawmakers in Yalta, an event the Kremlin had been hyping for weeks. ITAR-TASS said that it would be a "major" speech and the meeting with lawmakers would be "profound and comprehensive." The state-run Rossia-1 television channel said it would be "the political event of the week."
> 
> But at the last minute, the Kremlin pulled the plug on a planned live broadcast of the event.
> 
> Writing on Facebook, opposition journalist Sergei Parkhomenko called it "Putin's second false start," adding, "I wonder what it is he cannot bring himself to do?"
> 
> Journalist and political analyst Yevgenia Albats suggested on Ekho Moskvy that the confusion illustrated a deep split in Putin's inner circle. "I have the impression that there is a struggle" between "very dark forces" seeking to "intimidate" the West and "more pragmatic comrades who realize that, after all, their money is there," she said on August 18.
> 
> If such a battle was going on -- and I suspect it was -- the hard-liners appear to have won a round with Russia's escalation in Donbas over the past week.
> 
> But when Putin appeared live on television in the early morning hours on August 27, as that escalation was getting under way in earnest, something was clearly amiss.
> 
> Throughout his remarks in Minsk after his two-hour meeting with Poroshenko -- remarks that were fairly unremarkable -- Putin swayed to-and-fro and made odd gestures. His facial expressions were off. It definitely wasn't the cocksure Putin we've come to expect.
> 
> "Something appears to be wrong with him. He twitches and grimaces at random," Yelena Rykovtseva of RFE/RL's Russian Service wrote on Facebook. "Maybe this is why they didn't show him in Crimea."
> 
> And Putin's latest remarks on the conflict on August 29, in which he lauded pro-Russian separatists for "undermining Kiev's military operation" were not televised. Instead, they came were released on the Kremlin website in the early morning hours.
> 
> -- Brian Whitmore



http://www.rferl.org/content/putins-plan-or-kremlin-chaos/26556263.html

Consider the source (Radio Free Europe) but what if?

I'd rather a rational Putin with a plan than an irrational Putin, under threat, with a bomb....


----------



## stellarpanther

Sorry if this has already been posted but I haven't read all 58 pages of this thread.  I just read an article in the National Post that says Canada is planning on sending 1000 troops at a time to rotate to Eastern Europe.  While I don't agree with Russia entering the Ukraine, it's not our fight in my opinion.  I also don't think Russia has any intentions of making a move against Poland or any other NATO countries in the area.  This is starting to get really ridiculous in my opinion.


----------



## Kirkhill

Three really good articles on developments.

Bloomberg - Leonid Bershidsky 
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-08-29/moscow-strategists-view-world-as-war-theater



> Moscow Strategists View World as War Theater
> 
> If you're wondering what Russia is doing in Ukraine and beyond, a January 2013 speech by the head of Russia's General Staff provides a good explanation. It's fighting a multi-modal war against the West because its leadership is convinced the West is also waging one against Russia.
> 
> Army General Valery Gerasimov, who distinguished himself in Moscow's second war against Chechen separatists and who has headed the General Staff since 2012, delivered the speech to a general meeting of the Academy of Military Sciences -- the biggest gathering of Russian military strategists and historians. "In the 21st century there is a tendency to erase the differences between the states of war and peace," he said. "Wars are no longer declared, and once they start, they do not follow the customary mold." Then he elaborated:
> 
> The emphasis in the confrontation methods employed is shifting toward the broad use of political, economic, information, humanitarian and other non-military measures, taken along with the use of the population's protest potential. All that is supplemented with covert military measures, such as information warfare activities and the actions of special operations forces. The open use of force, often under the guise of peacekeeping and crisis resolution, only occurs at a certain stage, mainly to achieve ultimate success in a conflict.
> 
> Asymmetrical actions, which allow a side to level out the adversary's fighting advantage, are becoming widespread. They include the use of special operations personnel and internal opposition to create a permanently open front throughout the territory of the adversary state, as well as influence through information, whose forms and methods are continuously perfected.,,,,,



Bloomberg - Marc Champion
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-08-29/arm-ukraine-if-you-re-ready-to-fight-for-it



> Arm Ukraine If You're Ready to Fight for It
> 
> Should the North Atlantic Treaty Organization start arming Ukraine? That's an inevitable question following the entry of regular Russian troops, tanks and artillery into the fight there.....
> 
> Andrei Illarionov, a former chief economic adviser to President Vladimir Putin and now among his fiercest critics, described how the parliament in Moscow has passed legislation to enshrine Putin's vision of a new "Russian World" stretching from the middle of Ukraine to northern Kazakhstan. To help realize this post-imperial dream, Moscow asserts the right to intervene militarily on behalf of Russian speakers in its near abroad. "The only result can be war," he said.
> 
> Each Russian military success would breed further appetite while attracting admirers of the Putin style. Already, Hungary's leader, Viktor Orban, has begun to talk about the appeal of Putin's authoritarian approach compared with the perceived weakness and decline of liberal democracies.
> 
> I'm not so sure. The U.S. and Europe have made it clear that they will not go to war with Russia -- a nuclear superpower -- to defend Ukraine's borders. That may not be fair, but it is rational. And no matter how many weapons the U.S. and European allies supply to Ukraine, Russia will deploy more of them, wielded by better trained troops.
> 
> The logical progression of a NATO armament program for Ukraine is broader conflict. Putin would proceed, knowing that, in the end, Ukraine's allies would not have its back. The calculation could change if Putin decides to push his military deeper into Ukraine -- realizing fears of a wider conflict while heightening the security concerns of nearby Poland. For now, however, a formal arms program seems unwise.....



And meanwhile, back in Russia

Deutsche Welle
http://www.dw.de/disowned-and-forgotten-russian-soldiers-in-ukraine/a-17888902

In its entirety



> Disowned and forgotten: Russian soldiers in Ukraine
> 
> A Russian parliamentarian and human rights observers are demanding Russia finally admit its own soldiers are fighting in Ukraine. The soldiers are risking their lives, they say, in an undeclared war.
> 
> The official Russian version of events is as follows: In eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian army is battling Ukrainian army rebels, the so called "people's militia." A civil war is taking place between the nation's own people.
> 
> Russian human rights observers, however, assume that Russian soldiers have long been involved in the war in eastern Ukraine. They are convinced that not only volunteers or mercenaries are fighting there, but regular Russian army soldiers. Many of them are in a tragic situation, risking their lives in a war that, according to their own country's account, isn't being led by Russia at all.
> 
> Up to 12,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine?
> 
> Parliamentarian Lev Schlosberg says the use of Russian troops is 'criminal'
> 
> Lev Schlosberg, representative of the deputy assembly for the Pskov district in northwest Russia, was the first to speak openly about secret burials of soldiers from the Pskov parachute division.
> 
> "The community must know what's really happening. To my great regret, the civil authorities as well as the defense ministry are not telling the truth," Schlosberg told DW. "There is enough evidence that regular Russian troops - disguised as units of the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk - are taking part in the fighting in Ukraine."
> 
> Valentina Melnikova of the Union of the Committee of Soldiers' Mothers of Russia, an organization that works to exposes human rights violations committed by the Russian military, spoke of an exceptionally high numbers of troops.
> 
> "By my estimate, between 10,000 and 12,000 soldiers are taking part in the fighting in Ukraine," Melnikova said. "That is my estimate - only the defense minister knows the exact number. There are parachutists and infantry. We're not taking about mercenaries or volunteers, but regular soldiers."
> 
> No authorization
> 
> The legal status of the Russian troops in Ukraine is also unexplained.
> 
> "There are units that were trained on Russian Federation territory. They are crossing illegally over the Ukrainian border and are taking part in combat actions," Schlosberg said. "It is known that the council of the Russian Federation authorized the implementation of Russian force outside its own territory at the personal request of Putin himself. Without this authorization, neither the commander nor the defense minister has the right to send soldiers into conflict in other countries. What is happening here is criminal activity."
> 
> Schlosberg finds it "terrible" that the families of parachutists who have landed in Ukraine were not informed of their use in this war. They are told the soldiers are taking part in regular troop exercises. The Pskov parachute division is supposedly ready to be deployed in many battles, in Afghanistan und Chechnya, but never as an illegal armed group, the representative said.
> 
> "The officers with whom I've spoken are outraged. They believe that the Russian leadership has betrayed the soldiers. It's a shame to send regular armed troops disguised as partisans to a foreign country, and then to deny those losses and bury the dead secretly."
> 
> Melnikova wants to make Russians aware that their troops are engaged in an 'illegal war'
> 
> The mysterious burial of soldiers in the Pskov cemetery a few days ago alarmed human rights observers and members of the military. Shortly after the funeral, even the names of the victims and the wreaths from their army comrades were removed. While two cases of secret burial are known about, the figure is assumed to be higher.
> 
> Melnikova worries about the legal rights of Russian soldiers who've been taken prisoner in Ukraine. They are supposedly neither partisans nor saboteurs, neither mercenaries nor terrorists.
> 
> "Why should they not be treated as prisoners of war? They fight in uniform with their weapons and equipment under their regular commander. The Geneva conventions clearly lay out who qualifies as a combatant and who does not. Our soldiers have all the characteristics of combatants," Melnikova said.
> 
> Putin draws criticism
> 
> What does Melnikova say about Putin's claims there are no Russian troops in Ukraine? Or that, even if there were troops there, they had become lost?
> 
> Western politicians and journalists would have to be pretty naive to believe such nonsense, the activist says.
> 
> "Putin has been the supreme commander of the Russian armed forces since 2000. If he really believed his parachutists were so clumsy, he'd need to send the entire army home."
> 
> Ukraine army forces continue battling to regain territory held be pro-Russian rebels
> 
> All Russian soldiers sent to Ukraine, Melnikova advises, should refuse orders and write complaints to their army command and to state prosecutors. It is illegal to invade a foreign country without an official order. The soldiers would be taking part in a war crime.
> 
> Melnikova hopes that a discussion will begin in Russia now. A shift in Russian attitudes could occur if the mothers of soldiers protest to bring their sons home, she says.



Life may be getting interesting for Vlad....which means interesting times for the rest of us, will ye, nill ye.

It also raises the interesting point of discussion - in the modern world how does any nation transition from the use of Special Forces (GRU-Spetsnaz-SAS-JTF2) to Regular Forces (Pskov Airborne - Paras - RCR)..... No answer here. ???


----------



## Kirkhill

Update on Lev Schlosberg from Reuters
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/30/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-funerals-idUSKBN0GU0B020140830



> Russian politician beaten after report on soldier burials
> BY ALEXEI ANISHCHUK
> MOSCOW Sat Aug 30, 2014 12:11pm EDT
> 
> (Reuters) - A Russian politician said on Saturday he had been badly beaten after publicising the mysterious funerals of two soldiers who may have died while fighting in Ukraine.
> 
> Lev Shlosberg, a newspaper publisher who represents the liberal opposition Yabloko party in the regional assembly in the northwestern city of Pskov, said he was attacked on Friday evening near his home.
> 
> "They attacked me from behind, I did not see any of them,"
> 
> Shlosberg said in a phone interview from his hospital ward.
> 
> "Apparently, they knocked me unconscious with their first punch, threw me to the ground, beat me up and then ran away. Those people were very good professionals in their nasty business."
> 
> Shlosberg's paper published the investigation into the funerals of two Pskov-based paratroopers last week. The report added to a trail of evidence suggesting that Russian soldiers have been killed in eastern Ukraine, contradicting denials by Moscow that it is lending military support to separatist rebels there.
> 
> The report has raised awkward questions for the Kremlin.
> 
> When a Reuters reporter went on Wednesday to the cemetery where the soldiers were alleged to have been buried, he was stopped from entering and threatened by two young men with shaven heads.
> 
> Shlosberg said he believed he had been attacked for presenting evidence that Russia's military was taking part in the Ukraine conflict and sustaining casualties.
> 
> "I hope police will at least find the culprits," he said. "This would be hard to do...but I don't see grounds for police to intentionally hamper the investigation."
> 
> Shlosberg said he did not want to discuss his injuries, but doctors had told him he would take 10 days to recover.
> 
> The local governor demanded a thorough investigation of the attack, a demand echoed by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
> 
> A Kremlin spokesman has said that the relevant authorities will look into the reports about the soldiers' burials.
> 
> (Additional reporting by Jason Bush, Denis Pinchuk; Editing by Mark Trevelyan and Stephen Powell)


----------



## Ostrozac

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> It also raises the interesting point of discussion - in the modern world how does any nation transition from the use of Special Forces (GRU-Spetsnaz-SAS-JTF2) to Regular Forces (Pskov Airborne - Paras - RCR)..... No answer here. ???



You can re-role small groups of conventional forces for covert action (as the USAF famously did in Laos back in the day), but the bigger your footprint the less covert you can be. Right now the Russian presence in Ukraine isn't exactly what you'd call plausible deniability. They are simply bringing too many guys and too much stuff to keep it low profile.


----------



## stellarpanther

I think a huge part of this problem is that NATO continues to expand right up to Russia's border.  Something that Russia was promised would not happen.  Can you imagine what the US would be doing if all of a sudden Canada had an election and a new government decided to join a pact with Russia.  The U.S. would not stand for it.  I think and hope that the west tells Ukraine that they are not welcome to join NATO period.  I also think our current government needs to get a little more diplomatic and shut it mouth.  They sound like a bunch of teenagers who think their tough.


----------



## Edward Campbell

stellarpanther said:
			
		

> I think a huge part of this problem is that NATO continues to expand right up to Russia's border.  Something that Russia was promised would not happen.  Can you imagine what the US would be doing if all of a sudden Canada had an election and a new government decided to join a pact with Russia.  The U.S. would not stand for it.  I think and hope that the west tells Ukraine that they are not welcome to join NATO period.  I also think our current government needs to get a little more diplomatic and shut it mouth.  They sound like a bunch of teenagers who think their tough.




Some people agree, but others don't. I am, philosophically, aligned with John J. Mearsheimer, but I accept what Mary Elise Sarotte says: that the just recently released documentary evidence shows "that the United States, with the help of West Germany, soon pressured Gorbachev into allowing Germany to reunify, without making any kind of written promise about the alliance’s future plans. Put simply, there was never a formal deal, as Russia alleges -- but U.S. and West German officials briefly implied that such a deal might be on the table, and in return they received a “green light” to commence the process of German reunification ... [and] ... The dispute over this sequence of events has distorted relations between Washington and Moscow ever since."


----------



## YZT580

stellarpanther said:
			
		

> I think a huge part of this problem is that NATO continues to expand right up to Russia's border.  Something that Russia was promised would not happen.


The one thing we should do is quit rationalizing Putin's actions.  He promised to respect Ukraine's sovereignty too if Ukraine gave up its nucs.  When he annexed Georgia and other states all bets were off.  He has yet to live up to a single promise and now he has de facto declared war on Ukraine and invaded the same.  What the west has to decide is if they are going to stand firm (somewhere) and then take actions to prove it i.e. establish a base right on Putin's western border or roll over and allow the tanks to roll wherever he decides to send them.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

YZT580 said:
			
		

> The one thing we should do is quit rationalizing Putin's actions.  He promised to respect Ukraine's sovereignty too if Ukraine gave up its nucs.


  What are you talking about?  Ukraine got rid of their nukes back in 1994... I don't think Putin was President then LOL


----------



## George Wallace

RoyalDrew said:
			
		

> What are you talking about?  Ukraine got rid of their nukes back in 1994... I don't think Putin was President then LOL




If as head of Federal Security and an officer in the KGB, he missed that point, it may say something.


----------



## Kirkhill

Interesting comment by Putin reported by Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-30/eu-vows-more-russia-sanctions-if-war-in-ukraine-worsens.html



> While Putin said he has an agreement with Poroshenko on a peaceful solution of the conflict, it’s impossible to predict when the crisis will end as the situation in the country is complicated by the political campaign ahead of October 26 parliamentary elections, he said in the TV interview.
> 
> Those who expect Ukrainian rebels to sit and wait for talks while the area is torn by fighting, are captives of their illusions, Putin said.
> 
> “We must strive toward implementing the plan we agreed upon,” he said. “We must immediately commence substantive talks and not only on technical issues, but also on the political organization of society and *the statehood status of south-east Ukraine* in order to serve the interests of people living there.”



Emphasis added.

Meanwhile - as predicted, the EU (under Angela Merkel)  is offering sanctions this year, next year, sometime never.  

And as to military aid?



> Leaders disagreed about possible military assistance to Ukraine, with Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite telling reporters before the meeting: “We need militarily to support and send military materials to Ukraine.”
> 
> Merkel said she opposes sending arms to Ukraine because it would be a signal the conflict has a military solution. “But I don’t think that,” she said.



Merkel will end up splitting the EU, especially now that Donald Tusk holds the Presidency of the European Council for the next 5 years.

She is just not up to facing down Vlad.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

George Wallace said:
			
		

> If as head of Federal Security and an officer in the KGB, he missed that point, it may say something.



Ukraine is in Russia's sphere of influence which is why the US and the West doesn't have a leg to stand on when it talks tough to Russia.  As well, it's well known that Russia, like the former Soviet Union is ruled by a small group of clans/factions, some call it "Politburo 2.0".  Putin is the arbiter/moderator of this group but he is not the one really pulling the strings, he is merely the public face of this organization.  Russia is a Mafiocracy, Putin is the face of this mafia, if you want to hurt the mafia, attack them where it hurts... their wallets.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Anne Applebaum, a Pulitzer Prize-winning author, former editor at _The Economist_, and a member of the editorial board of The Washington Post (2002–2006) and Slate Magazine who is, incidentally, married to Poland's Minister of Foreign Affairs Radosław Sikorski, is a long time commentator on the development of civil society in Central and Eastern Europe. This contribution is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from _The Washington Post_:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/anne-applebaum-war-in-europe-is-not-a-hysterical-idea/2014/08/29/815f29d4-2f93-11e4-bb9b-997ae96fad33_story.html


> War in Europe is not a hysterical idea
> 
> By Anne Applebaum Columnist August 29
> 
> WARSAW
> 
> Over and over again — throughout the entirety of my adult life, or so it feels — I have been shown Polish photographs from the beautiful summer of 1939: The children playing in the sunshine, the fashionable women on Krakow streets. I have even seen a picture of a family wedding that took place in June 1939, in the garden of a Polish country house I now own. All of these pictures convey a sense of doom, for we know what happened next. September 1939 brought invasion from both east and west, occupation, chaos, destruction, genocide. Most of the people who attended that June wedding were soon dead or in exile. None of them ever returned to the house.
> 
> In retrospect, all of them now look naive. Instead of celebrating weddings, they should have dropped everything, mobilized, prepared for total war while it was still possible. And now I have to ask: Should Ukrainians, in the summer of 2014, do the same? Should central Europeans join them?
> 
> I realize that this question sounds hysterical, and foolishly apocalyptic, to U.S. or Western European readers. But hear me out, if only because this is a conversation many people in the eastern half of Europe are having right now. In the past few days, Russian troops bearing the flag of a previously unknown country, Novorossiya, have marched across the border of southeastern Ukraine. The Russian Academy of Sciences recently announced it will publish a history of Novorossiya this autumn, presumably tracing its origins back to Catherine the Great. Various maps of Novorossiya are said to be circulating in Moscow. Some include Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk, cities that are still hundreds of miles away from the fighting. Some place Novorossiya along the coast, so that it connects Russia to Crimea and eventually to Transnistria, the Russian-occupied province of Moldova. Even if it starts out as an unrecognized rump state — Abkhazia and South Ossetia, “states” that Russia carved out of Georgia, are the models here — Novorossiya can grow larger over time.
> 
> Russian soldiers will have to create this state — how many of them depends upon how hard Ukraine fights, and who helps them — but eventually Russia will need more than soldiers to hold this territory. Novorossiya will not be stable as long as it is inhabited by Ukrainians who want it to stay Ukrainian. There is a familiar solution to this, too. A few days ago, Alexander Dugin, an extreme nationalist whose views have helped shape those of the Russian president, issued an extraordinary statement. “Ukraine must be cleansed of idiots,” he wrote — and then called for the “genocide” of the “race of bastards.”
> 
> But Novorossiya will also be hard to sustain if it has opponents in the West. Possible solutions to that problem are also under discussion. Not long ago, Vladimir Zhirinovsky — the Russian member of parliament and court jester who sometimes says things that those in power cannot — argued on television that Russia should use nuclear weapons to bomb Poland and the Baltic countries — “dwarf states,” he called them — and show the West who really holds power in Europe: “Nothing threatens America, it’s far away. But Eastern European countries will place themselves under the threat of total annihilation,” he declared. Vladimir Putin indulges these comments: Zhirinovsky’s statements are not official policy, the Russian president says, but he always “gets the party going.”
> 
> A far more serious person, the dissident Russian analyst Andrei Piontkovsky, has recently published an article arguing, along lines that echo Zhirinovsky’s threats, that Putin really is weighing the possibility of limited nuclear strikes — perhaps against one of the Baltic capitals, perhaps a Polish city — to prove that NATO is a hollow, meaningless entity that won’t dare strike back for fear of a greater catastrophe. Indeed, in military exercises in 2009 and 2013, the Russian army openly “practiced” a nuclear attack on Warsaw.
> 
> Is all of this nothing more than the raving of lunatics? Maybe. And maybe Putin is too weak to do any of this, and maybe it’s just scare tactics, and maybe his oligarchs will stop him. But “Mein Kampf” also seemed hysterical to Western and German audiences in 1933. Stalin’s orders to “liquidate” whole classes and social groups within the Soviet Union would have seemed equally insane to us at the time, if we had been able to hear them.
> 
> But Stalin kept to his word and carried out the threats, not because he was crazy but because he followed his own logic to its ultimate conclusions with such intense dedication — and because nobody stopped him. Right now, nobody is able to stop Putin, either. So is it hysterical to prepare for total war? Or is it naive not to do so?




"So," she asks, "is it hysterical to prepare for total war? Or is it naive not to do so?"

In my opinion most of the West is following a _naif_ in Barack Obama. We need to be prepared, yet again, as Truman and Eisenhower, Churchill, Atlee and Macmillan were, to face and _contain_ Russia: risking and being prepared to fight an all out war if necessary.

(I appreciate that at my age my personal _risk_ is less than the ones many of you face.)


----------



## George Wallace

RoyalDrew said:
			
		

> .......  Russia is a Mafiocracy, Putin is the face of this mafia, if you want to hurt the mafia, attack them where it hurts... their wallets.



I tend to agree with you.   It is the "Wild West" with crime syndicates running the majority of operations; business, politics, government, etc.


----------



## Kirkhill

Further to Putin's comments about statehood for Donetsk (see above)http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/thomson-reuters/140831/putin-spokesman-says-ukraines-east-should-remain-part-the-count



> Putin spokesman says Ukraine's east should remain part of the country
> 
> CHELYABINSK Russia (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin's spokesman said on Sunday that areas of eastern Ukraine where pro-Russian separatists are fighting Kiev government forces should remain part of the country and he called the conflict a domestic one.
> 
> Dmitry Peskov was speaking after Putin was quoted by Russian media as calling for meaningful talks between the separatists and Kiev on issues including "society's political organisation and statehood in southeastern Ukraine to protect legitimate interests of people living there".
> 
> "This is not a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, this is a domestic Ukrainian conflict," Peskov told reporters. Asked if "Novorossiya" - the name the rebels give to the region in dispute - should remain part of Ukraine, he said: "Of course."
> 
> (Reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin; Writing by Katya Golubkova; Editing by Mark Heinrich)





Was Putin misquoted, off-script or freelancing and publicly being pulled back on message?

Are there cracks starting to show?


----------



## GR66

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> (I appreciate that at my age my personal _risk_ is less than the ones many of you face.)



When you're talking about open war between nuclear-armed NATO and nuclear-armed Russia your ultimate risk may really be the same as for those in uniform.  

Where does a "limited" war between NATO and Russia in Ukraine end?  With NATO armoured divisions lined up along the border of Russia?  Are airfields in Russia, Poland, Germany, etc. valid military targets if they are supporting the opposing side in Ukraine?  What are the risks of such a conflict creeping out of control once opposing ground forces are engaged?    

The UN is a very imperfect creation and unsatisfying in many, many ways but it HAS up to now fulfilled it's primary purpose which is to prevent another major war between the great powers.  Direct NATO military involvement in Ukraine opposing direct Russian military involvement may make it difficult for either side to step back from the edge once the bodies begin piling up.  That's why I agree with your earlier statements that it was a big, HUGE mistake to push the borders of NATO right up to the borders of Russia without some kind of buffer in between.  Ukraine should definitely NOT be admitted into NATO as a full member in my opinion and NATO forces should NOT be directly committed to combat there.  

The situation in eastern Ukraine is very messed up with a large ethnically Russian population and divided economic loyalties between Russian and the West.  Should we ultimately risk nuclear war and our own destruction over a region where a significant portion of the affected local population may actually prefer to join with Russia rather then be a minority in a Ukrainian nation state?  

This in no ways does this mean I'm pro-Russia or pro-Putin in this case.  They are clearly taking advantage of the situation on the ground to enrich themselves and their thugish nation.  However I think we (the collective West) needs a new approach to dealing with a resurgent Russia.  I think it's crazy to rely on US military power and ultimately the US nuclear arsenal as the primary check on Russian threats to central Europe.  

The nations of Europe have to step up and take responsibility for their own defence.  They had an excuse at the end of WWII to ride the US' coat-tails because their countries were devastated by the war and the Soviet Union's military was at it's high tide.  Now however the situation is different.  Russia is shrinking and weakening.  The populations of just Germany (82 mil), Ukraine (45 mil) and Poland (38 mil)...the three most directly threatened European nations is 165 million vs. a total Russian population of 143 million.  The combined GDP's of these three countries (Gemany 3,401 billion USD, Ukraine 176 billion USD, and Poland 488 billion USD) at $4,065 billion USD is also twice the Russian GDP of $2,022 USD.  These nations (not to mention the rest of Western Europe) have the population and economic capacity to easily on their own face down Russia if they are willing to pay the price.  

THEY should be the countries to take the lead and be the deterrent to Russian expansion Westward.  To rely on the US military to protect them across the Atlantic where it's direct national interests are questionable and ultimately on the US nuclear arsenal should things get out of control is not only unfair but also dangerous. Let those countries support the Ukrainian government forces with training, supplies, equipment, intelligence, etc., but don't get NATO directly involved.  Leave both Russia and the West with a face saving way of climbing back from this while it's still a fight over limited objectives*.  Let a non-NATO EU military force (Poles and Germans, etc) stand by to face the Russians if they push beyond the ethnically Russian areas in the East and attempt to take all of Ukraine or threaten other countries in the region.  Then punish Russia with serious economic measures to make it clear to them that their "salami tactics" are not worth it going forward.

This may be an unpopular opinion with many but it is my opinion.

* I fully realize that to Ukrainians these are not "limited objectives" but in the grand scheme of things to the West as a whole Eastern Ukraine is of limited consequence.


----------



## Rifleman62

While Obama golfs and goes to fundraisers.

http://epaper.nationalpost.com/epaper/viewer.aspx

*Putin has turned Eastern Europe into a land of fear*

 National Post - 30 Aug 14 - Anne Applebaum in Warsaw - The Washington Post

Putin has turned Eastern Europe into a land of fearOver and over again — throughout the entirety of my adult life, or so it feels — I have been shown Polish photographs from the beautiful summer of 1939: the children playing in the sunshine, the fashionable women on Krakow streets. I have even seen a picture of a family wedding that took place in June 1939, in the garden of a Polish country house I now own. All of these pictures convey a sense of doom, for we know what happened next. September, 1939 brought invasion from both east and west, occupation, chaos, destruction, genocide. Most of the people who attended that June wedding were soon dead or in exile. None of them ever returned to the house.

In retrospect, all of them now look naïve. Instead of celebrating weddings, they should have dropped everything, mobilized, prepared for total war while it was still possible. And now I have to ask: Should Ukrainians, in the summer of 2014, do the same? Should central Europeans join them?

I realize that this question sounds hysterical, and foolishly apocalyptic, to American or Western European readers. But hear me out, if only because this is a conversation many people in the eastern half of Europe are having right now. In the past few days, Russian troops bearing the flag of a previously unknown country, Novorossiya, have marched across the border of southeastern Ukraine. The Russian Academy of Sciences recently announced it will publish a history of Novorossiya this autumn, presumably tracing its origins back to Catherine the Great. Various maps of Novorossiya are said to be circulating in Moscow. Some include Kharkov and Dnipropetrovsk, cities that are still hundreds of miles away from the fighting. Some place Novorossiya along the coast, so that it connects Russia to Crimea and eventually to Transnistria, the Russian-occupied province of Moldova. Even if it starts out as an unrecognized rump state — Abkhazia and South Ossetia, “states” that Russia carved out of Georgia, are the models here — Novorossiya can grow larger over time.

Russian soldiers will have to create this state — how many of them depends upon how hard Ukraine fights, and who helps them — but eventually Russia will need more than soldiers to hold this territory. Novorossiya will not be stable as long as it is inhabited by Ukrainians who want it to stay Ukrainian. There is a familiar solution to this, too. A few days ago, Alexander Dugin, an extreme nationalist whose views have helped shape those of the Russian president, issued an extraordinary statement. “Ukraine must be cleansed of idiots,” he wrote — and then called for the “genocide” of the “race of bastards.”

But Novorossiya will also be hard to sustain if it has opponents in the West. Possible solutions to that problem are also under discussion. Not long ago, Vladimir Zhirinovsky — the Russian member of parliament and court jester, who sometimes says things that those in power cannot — argued on television that Russia should use nuclear weapons to bomb Poland and the Baltic countries — “dwarf states,” he called them — and show the West who really holds power in Europe: “Nothing threatens America, it’s far away. But Eastern European countries will place themselves under the threat of total annihilation,” he declared. Vladimir Putin indulges these comments: Zhirinovsky’s statements are not official policy, the Russian president says, but he always “gets the party going.”

A far more serious person, the dissident Russian analyst Andrei Piontkovsky, recently published an article arguing, along lines that echo Zhirinovsky’s threats, that Putin truly is weighing the possibility of limited nuclear strikes — perhaps against one of the Baltic capitals, perhaps a Polish city — to prove that NATO is a hollow, meaningless entity that won’t dare strike back for fear of a greater catastrophe. Indeed, in military exercises in 2009 and 2013, the Russian army openly “practiced” a nuclear attack on Warsaw.

Is all of this nothing more than the raving of lunatics? Maybe. And maybe Putin is too weak to do any of this, and maybe it’s just scare tactics, and maybe his oligarchs will stop him. But Mein Kampf also seemed hysterical to Western and German audiences in 1933. Stalin’s orders to “liquidate” whole classes and social groups within the Soviet Union would have seemed equally insane to us at the time, if we had been able to hear them.

But Stalin kept to his word and carried out the threats, not because he was crazy but because he followed his own logic to its ultimate conclusions with such intense dedication — and because nobody stopped him. Right now, nobody is able to stop Putin, either. So is it hysterical to prepare for total war? Or is it naïve not to do so?


----------



## Kirkhill

GR66:

You say that the Europeans can and should do more.  

I don't disagree with that.  In fact I agree strongly with that.

But  you also say that Europe should not rely on the US and the US nuclear arsenal.

The dichotomy you suggest invites the possibility that you don't mind the Euros and the Russians slaughtering each other but you want to be left out of it.

I would remind that both the French and the Brits have their own nuclear warheads to respond if Vlad decides to make Warsaw glow.  That probably wouldn't do much for our standard of living either - and it would leave us with fewer friends to assist us in inviting him courteously to stay out of our backyard.

With respect to NATO expansion - I don't think Vlad makes much of a distinction amongst Helsinki, Warsaw or Berlin, full NATO member, Partner for Peace or Westward leaning Neutral.  If they are not part of his power structure, part of his network of clan chiefs, they are threats.  

I will go farther.  I think that given a choice between a NATO constrained Warsaw and a Westward leaning Neutral Warsaw, Vlad is just as happy to see Warsaw constrained by its alliances.   At the same time it gives him a glorious opportunity for propagandizing to the masses in dear old Mother Russia clamouring for bread, vodka and a free trip to Crimea on their pension.

I am of the school that there is no negotiating with this character because he has no interests beyond the personal.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Just a quibble. Some people are making much of President Obama's golfing, but ... he's played less than 100 games since he became president six years ago; that's a far cry from the 800 game President Eisenhower played in his eight years in office. But President Eisenhower played golf for two important reasons:

     1. He like it; it helped him relax, to think more clearly ~ important when the world was much, *Much, MUCH* more likely to explode in a nuclear flash than it is today; and

     2. It reassured the American people. Every time, damned near every week they saw a picture in _Life_, or _Time_ or the _Saturday Evening Post_ of a much admired president out on the links; it made them feel better.
         We usually list "maintenance of morale" as the second principle of war; Ike understood that.


----------



## Rifleman62

ERC:  





> It reassured the American people. Every time, damned near every week they saw a picture in Life, or Time or the Saturday Evening Post of a much admired president out on the links; it made them feel better.



I am sure you remember President Eisenhower's campaign slogan: "I like Ike". I believe the people admired Ike, probably from his Second World War record.

The right wing media is not belabouring President Obama's golf/vacations, but combined with endless fundraising.......

Optics.


----------



## CougarKing

For those wondering what Ukrainian maritime units are doing...



> *Ukraine: rebels fire on border guard vessel*
> 
> *On Sunday, a spokesman for Ukraine's offensive against Russia-backed rebels said a border guard vessel has been fired on with artillery *— apparently the first incident at sea in the fighting.
> 
> The spokesman, Oleksiy Dmitrashkovsky, said the attack occurred Sunday afternoon but he had no further information, including how many people were aboard the boat.
> 
> The attack took place amid heightened concern that the rebels are trying to seize a land bridge between Russia and the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed in March.
> 
> *Until this week, the area along the Azov Sea had escaped the fighting that has gripped areas farther north since April.*
> 
> 
> (...SNIPPED)
> 
> 
> Yahoo News


----------



## cupper

And lets not forget that thanks to Bush 43, Texas can now say that it is completely free of scrub brush. >


----------



## McG

US Senators, Robert Menendez and John McCain, are calling on the US government to start providing arms for the Ukraine army to fight-off the Russian invasion.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29007631


----------



## Edward Campbell

The _New York Times_ suggests, in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from that newspaper, that there is a clear "winner" in the Ukraine crisis:

http://mobile.nytimes.com/blogs/sinosphere/2014/09/01/ukraine-conflict-has-been-a-lift-for-china-scholars-say/?emc=edit_tnt_20140901&nlid=18733852&tntemail0=y


> Ukraine Conflict Has Been a Lift for China, Scholars Say
> By JANE PERLEZ
> SEPTEMBER 1, 2014
> 
> Which country has emerged as a winner in the Ukraine crisis?
> 
> Almost certainly China: That was the consensus at a gathering of American, European and Chinese scholars held by the German Marshall Fund of the United States. While the United States and European Union, facing the gravest East-West crisis since the end of the Cold War, have imposed economic sanctions on Russia over its interventions in eastern Ukraine, China has been able to stand apart and gain concrete advantages, Bobo Lo, a specialist in Chinese and Russian foreign policy, told participants at the conference last weekend in Stockholm.
> 
> “It has secured a long-delayed gas deal, Chinese companies are expanding into upstream Russian energy projects, oil imports are set to increase substantially, and there are good prospects for major arms sales,” said Mr. Lo, a former Australian diplomat in Moscow and currently an associate fellow at the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House in London.
> 
> China has also established a “neo-colonial economic relationship” with Russia that allows Beijing to exploit its neighbor’s gas and minerals to its cost advantage, Mr. Lo said, and has gained a “reputational dividend” in some quarters by virtue of not being an aggressor like Russia.
> 
> But the West, worried about the intentions of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, should not fret too much about the possibility of a China-Russia alliance, Mr. Lo said. Beijing and Moscow do have some common interests, he said, including a distaste for the West’s willingness to intervene and opposition to Washington’s deployment of missile defense systems in Europe and Asia. Unlike Moscow, however, Beijing wants to maintain a semblance of good relations with Washington, and there is too much long-held mutual suspicion for an effective relationship between Beijing and Moscow.
> 
> “The notion of a Sino-Russian authoritarian axis against the West is nonsensical,” Mr. Lo said. “Although Putin has consistently downplayed the ‘China threat,’ this is never far away in Russian thinking.”
> 
> Mr. Lo didn’t quite say it, but the Ukraine crisis, according to his assessment, was providing another free ride to China and its leader, President Xi Jinping, the kind of easy diplomatic gains President Obama complained of in a recent interview with Thomas L. Friedman, a columnist for The New York Times.
> 
> As it turns out, Mr. Xi has been somewhat more involved in Ukraine than is commonly known. Just before Russia annexed the Ukrainian region of Crimea last March, Mr. Xi called Mr. Putin and urged him to find a political settlement, according to Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University of China in Beijing.
> 
> “This was not an easy thing for President Xi to do because of the strategic relationship between China and Russia,” Mr. Shi said. Mr. Xi also telephoned Mr. Obama to express China’s opposition to Western economic sanctions against Russia, he said.
> 
> Recently, China has moved away from its “strict neutrality” on Russia’s actions with regard to Ukraine toward being more sympathetic toward Moscow, he said. This is another way for China to signal displeasure with the United States at a time of souring relations between the countries. Moreover, he said, Mr. Xi admires Mr. Putin’s “strong leadership style.”




The Sino-Russian _relationship_ is long - in terms of history and shared borders - and, broadly and generally, unfriendly. (My personal _sense_ is that the Chinese 'see' Americans (and Canadians and Australians) as open,* friendly and likable; they see the Russians as the prototypical barbarians and as untrustworthy.) 

_____
* Something the Chinese find strange but endearing


----------



## Edward Campbell

And Matthew Fisher of _Postmedia News_ suggests that Canada will join a British led division sized force in Poland, one aimed to "bolster the alliance’s eastern flank in an effort to check Russia’s creeping military takeover of eastern Ukraine."

The source of Mr Fisher's report is found, here, in the _Financial Times__.
_


----------



## GR66

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> GR66:
> 
> You say that the Europeans can and should do more.
> 
> I don't disagree with that.  In fact I agree strongly with that.
> 
> But  you also say that Europe should not rely on the US and the US nuclear arsenal.
> 
> The dichotomy you suggest invites the possibility that you don't mind the Euros and the Russians slaughtering each other but you want to be left out of it.
> 
> I would remind that both the French and the Brits have their own nuclear warheads to respond if Vlad decides to make Warsaw glow.  That probably wouldn't do much for our standard of living either - and it would leave us with fewer friends to assist us in inviting him courteously to stay out of our backyard.
> 
> With respect to NATO expansion - I don't think Vlad makes much of a distinction amongst Helsinki, Warsaw or Berlin, full NATO member, Partner for Peace or Westward leaning Neutral.  If they are not part of his power structure, part of his network of clan chiefs, they are threats.
> 
> I will go farther.  I think that given a choice between a NATO constrained Warsaw and a Westward leaning Neutral Warsaw, Vlad is just as happy to see Warsaw constrained by its alliances.   At the same time it gives him a glorious opportunity for propagandizing to the masses in dear old Mother Russia clamouring for bread, vodka and a free trip to Crimea on their pension.
> 
> I am of the school that there is no negotiating with this character because he has no interests beyond the personal.



You're right.  If Russia and Europe (both with nuclear weapons) wish to shed their children's blood and ultimately risk turning their countries into sheets of glass over which side owns the pocketbooks of a few Russian speaking people on the Ukraine/Russia frontier then I say let them.  Keep me and my children out of it.  

If Russia wants to go even further and expand their empire to subjugate all of Ukraine then I'm all in favour of arming and supporting the inevitable insurgency and completely isolating Russia economically and politically.  No trade at all with the West.  No gas and oil out and no food and materials in.  

Do I think that Russia has even the slightest intention of triggering an automatic war with NATO by attacking Poland?  No.  They would be absolutely insane to do so as they have exactly ZERO chance of winning such a war.  Even without the US and Canada NATO is superior to Russia in all areas...Total Population (560 million vs 143 million), Military Personnel including Reserves (4,833,273 vs 2,801,000) and economic power - GDP ($15,991 billion USD vs. $2,022 billion USD).  It's simply not a war Russia is capable of winning conventionally and there is no winner if they have to resort to non-conventional weapons because the West (of course including the US) will retaliate in kind and totally destroy Russia.  

Is it possible that Putin is totally insane and out of touch with this reality and is crazy enough to launch such an attack?  Even if he is, do you think for a minute that the rest of the people in power that are NOT totally insane will risk their inevitable destruction and allow him to do such a thing?  I don't believe it.


----------



## Kirkhill

I can't do better than this chap.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/01/opinion/arm-ukraine-or-surrender.html?_r=0



> Arm Ukraine or Surrender
> By BEN JUDAH
> AUG. 31, 2014
> 
> MOSCOW — Russia and Ukraine are now at war. At least 2,200 people have died in the conflict; thousands more may die yet. The Western powers — America, Europe, NATO — now have no good options, but they cannot do nothing. President Vladimir V. Putin has left us with two dire choices, both fraught with risk: Either we arm Ukraine, or we force Kiev to surrender and let Mr. Putin carve whatever territories he wants into a Russian-occupied zone of “frozen conflict.”
> 
> It is a stark choice, and Mr. Putin is not rational. Any rational leader would have reeled from the cost of Western sanctions. Russia’s economy is being hit hard by a credit crunch, capital flight, spiraling inflation and incipient recession. This will hurt Mr. Putin’s surging popularity at home. But none of this has deterred the smirking enigma.
> 
> Ukraine cannot win this war. Mr. Putin has made it clear that the Russian Army will annihilate Ukrainian forces if they attempt to liberate Donetsk and Luhansk. Ukraine’s ramshackle army cannot rout the crack troops and conscript forces of an oil-fueled giant.
> 
> The West needs to be honest with Ukraine. We talk as though this country were one of us — as if, one day, it will become a member of the European Union and the NATO alliance. That is Kiev’s wish, but the West is not giving Ukraine the means to fight this war.
> 
> Ukraine is being destroyed. The economy is in tatters. The military will not survive a Russian offensive. Ukrainians are taking refuge in romantic nationalism and preparing for partisan warfare. The costs are mounting — continuing to fight will cost thousands of lives — and the liberal dreams of the revolution are drowning in the jingoistic fury and hysteria of war.
> 
> A few more months without meaningful Western help and Ukraine will have lost the fighting core of its army — and its infatuation with the West. This will be replaced by a sense of betrayal, and there will be no way for Ukraine’s pro-European liberals to survive the backlash. The far-right extremists now on the fringe will ride into Kiev’s parliament on the lids of the caskets being shipped back from the front. Ukraine will become a ravaged conflict zone: a European Syria, or a hideously enlarged Bosnia.
> 
> We cannot let this happen. If we believe that Ukraine will one day become a member of the European Union and NATO, then we should be ready to arm it. We must face the fact that the costs of unlimited European Union and NATO expansion have meant war with Russia by proxy — and then fight the war. Having reignited the hottest moments of the Cold War, we must deal with the consequences of encouraging democratization in Eastern Europe.
> 
> This logic demands that we send Western military advisers to Kiev, and give the Ukrainians full intelligence and satellite support. And we must ship them guns, tanks, drones and medical kits by the ton. We must even be ready to deploy NATO troops if Russian tanks roll toward Crimea, as many fear they will, to build a land bridge to the mainland of southern Russia.
> 
> Continue reading the main storyContinue reading the main storyContinue reading the main story
> No question, this path involves enormous risks. Russia will throw its might into Ukraine. American and British special forces should be dispatched to plant the flag and protect the airports of Kiev and Odessa. But Mr. Putin may call our bluff: Russian forces might — in an echo of the 1999 Kosovo war — encircle them.
> 
> But if we are not prepared to take these risks, then we must force the Ukrainians to abandon their deadly delusion. It would be up to us to prevent Russia from slaughtering Ukrainian conscripts in vain.
> 
> The only way to achieve this is for the West to oblige Ukraine to surrender. Ukraine is completely dependent on the International Monetary Fund, which is Western money. We must tell Kiev to accept as a fait accompli that Russia has carved out a South Ossetia in the east — or we turn the money off. We can console them: Being another Georgia is not the worst thing in the world.
> 
> We could save thousands of lives this way, but it would be a crushing defeat for the West. Russia would have restored itself as an empire — the former Soviet Union once more under the sway of the Kremlin. The West would thus concede, in effect, that Russia may invade or annex any of these territories as it pleases. And in these lands, the appeasers would flourish, and democracy wilt.
> 
> Russia would have triumphed over the world order imposed by the West after the Soviet Union lost the Cold War. This would mean the destruction of American geopolitical deterrence. America’s enemies, from China to Iran, would see this as an invitation to establish their own spheres of influence amid the wreckage.
> 
> Russia would not stop there. Mr. Putin wants to undermine NATO, and the smell of weakness would tempt him further. It would be merely a matter of time before Moscow exploited the Russians in the Baltic States to manufacture new “frozen conflicts.” Poland would feel compelled to act as though NATO did not exist, creating a defensive military alliance of its own with the Baltics; it might even establish a buffer zone in western Ukraine.
> 
> There is no easy way out now. But we must not let thousands of Ukrainians die because we dithered. We must be honest with them if we are not willing to fight a new Cold War with Russia over Ukrainians’ independence. But if we force Ukraine to surrender, rather than sacrifice lives in a fight for which we have no stomach, then we must accept that it is a surrender, too, for NATO, for Europe and liberal democracy, and for American global leadership. That is the choice before us.
> 
> Ben Judah is the author of “Fragile Empire: How Russia Fell In and Out of Love With Vladimir Putin.”



Crudely put:  Get in or get out.  Stop f*cking about.


----------



## Kirkhill

So many places to put this one:
http://khpg.org.ua/en/index.php?id=1409512010

When is a fascist, not a fascist? When the fascists say so.



> A number of fascists and neo-Nazis descended on Yalta this weekend, with members of prominent fascist parties like Hungary’s Jobbik due to attend.  They joined Sergei Glazyev, senior adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Maxim Shevchenko a member of Putin’s human rights council, Kremlin-backed militants and their Russian comrades from various far-right and neo-Nazi parties in discussing the fight against the ‘fascist junta in Kyiv’.  A star attraction was surely the proposed formation of a Russian ‘Anti-fascist Council’.
> 
> It is unclear at present how many of the invited members of Belgium’s neo-Nazi Parti Communautaire National-Européen’; fascist Jobbik; far-right British National Party and others actually attended the Aug 29-31 conference on “Russia, Ukraine and Novorossiya: global problems and challenges”.  Reports mention only that people from the relevant countries were present.
> 
> Absence would not, however, indicate lack of support.  A number of the announced guests or parties were involved in something euphemistically called ‘observing’ the Crimean ‘referendum’ on March 16.  Many have since continued to actively defend Russia’s ‘right’ to the Crimea and Kremlin policies generally.....



So, to summarize:  The fascists of the world get together and agree with Putin's mouth piece that Ukraine's "Maidan junta" needs to be opposed because it is fascist......

Is George Orwell or Lewis Carroll writing this script?


----------



## GR66

Putin = Bad.  Yes.  No disagreement.  However I don't get the leap from the Russians taking Eastern Ukraine to Russian tanks pouring through the Fulda Gap because they sense our weakness.  This is nonsense.  Russia does not have the military or economic strength or the population to be able to take on Western Europe in a war.  Period.  

Does that mean we should sit back and let him do whatever he wants?  Of course not.  But let's at least be honest about the different situations.  Ukraine turning away from Russia to the EU is a HUGE threat to Russia.  Ukraine is Russia's 4th largest export market and their 3rd largest import market.  Ukraine also has a very significant Russian population, largely concentrated in the East...exactly the area where the conflict is taking place.  I'm not an expert on the Ukrainian economy but my impression is that much of Ukraine's heavy industry is located here as well.  So both the Russian population and the economic concentration in the East are direct vital national interests to Russia.  Letting them both go to the West will further weaken Russia compared to the West.  

I personally think that Russia is being stupid and will ultimately lose more through it's ham-fisted attempt to hold on to Eastern Ukraine than if they let them go and instead liberalized their economy and sought better integration with the EU.  I don't claim they are smart but I do think they can be trusted to act in defence of their national interests.  How does attacking NATO member Poland fit into any kind of Russian national interest?  They can't hope to defeat NATO in a military conflict.  There is no Russian minority in Poland to speak of (in fact according to Wikipedia there are 10 times as many ethnic Germans in Poland as Russians).  There is no positive end game for Russia in attacking Poland...or the rest of Western Europe for that matter.  Do they occupy it and face permanent insurgency supported by the outside world which will bleed their economy dry (assuming they are capable of occupying it in the first place)?

Russia certainly may try and slice off key tidbits around the edges that will strengthen their position and slow their decline but I do not see them committing national suicide by attacking NATO in force.  The Baltic States (Estonia and Latvia in particular with large - 25% - Russian minorities) may be the exceptions which is why I think it was profoundly stupid for NATO to admit these countries as members since a conflict over them now becomes MUCH bigger than it really should be.  Fortunately both their populations and economies are quite small so Russia may not feel direct conflict over them is worth the risk (unlike Ukraine).

I think the panicked drum beating over the Russian military threat to the West is dangerous.  It could land us into a conflict that simply is not in the national interests of virtually anybody in NATO.  Once the bullets start flying between NATO and Russian forces nobody can guarantee that it will not escalate into something much, much more.


----------



## Kirkhill

GR66

You could well be right.  Perhaps Putin is bothered by European resolve and won't act against Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia, or Moldova in support of maltreated Russian minorities. (Minorities comprised of Russians who made a career out of maltreating the locals - but I digress - as usual).

I sincerely doubt that a Guards Army Group is going to barreling through Poland in the direction of Fulda anytime soon.  But a Ukrainian-style non-invasion, as presaged in Georgia, is entirely possible.

But, Putin is leaving himself a number of options.

The Kazakhs may well be in his sights next.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/kazakhs-worried-after-putin-questions-history-of-country-s-independence/506178.html



> Kazakhs Worried After Putin Questions History of Country's Independence
> 
> President Vladimir Putin has said Kazakhstan's history of independent statehood is scant and its people's desire for closer ties with Russia is profound — a rhetoric reminiscent of Moscow's stance on Ukraine — and inhabitants of Kazakhstan are worried.
> ...



Kazakhstan would be a softer target than Ukraine.  Less Western interference likely.  The Chinese position would be interesting to see.
And there have been some interesting issues with Russia moving missiles into the border area with Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan shutting down Baikonur, failed missile launches dropping debris on Kazakh villages.


----------



## McG

GR66 said:
			
		

> I personally think that Russia is being stupid and will ultimately lose more through it's ham-fisted attempt to hold on to Eastern Ukraine than if they let them go ...



That is a popular opinion, but it will take western conviction to follow through for it to be true.



> Vladimir Putin’s rusty iron curtain: Editorial
> Vladimir Putin is isolating Russia by bullying Ukraine and dragging his country into a ruinous, long-term confrontation with far superior military and economic powers.
> Toronto Star
> 29 Aug 2014
> 
> Little by little Russian President Vladimir Putin is drawing a rusty iron curtain back across Europe at Ukraine’s expense, 25 years after the old one fell apart. He has seized Crimea, provided comfort and aid to pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk, and now he is sending Russian troops across the border to threaten Mariupol and the Sea of Azov region.
> 
> This brazen aggression in what Putin ominously refers to as “New Russia” aims to bring all of Russified, heavily industrialized southeastern Ukraine under Moscow’s intimidating shadow, if not into outright annexation. Frustrated in his bid to bully Ukraine into a Moscow-led Eurasian Union, Putin is planting the imperial flag where he can. And Russians are proud of his cynical audacity.
> 
> Against Putin’s serial invasion and the loss of 2,600 Ukrainian lives, the cautious response from U.S. President Barack Obama and the European Union looks feckless. No one is prepared to go to war for Ukraine, at least for now. So the Kremlin can continue with impunity to destabilize Ukraine’s government, demoralize its people and threaten its integrity.
> 
> That’s Putin’s short-term calculation, at any rate. But he is taking Russia down a calamitous path by attacking a neighbour and turning his back on 25 years of bridge-building with the West. He has isolated Russia and dragged it into a ruinous, long-term confrontation with far superior military and economic powers.
> 
> Putin had an option. He could have recognized the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s new government, accepted Kyiv’s decision to join the European Union economic zone, and held Poroshenko to his pledge to give Ukraine’s ethnic Russian regions more political and economic autonomy. Instead, Putin opted for aggression.
> 
> The decision to send regular Russian troops, tanks, missile launchers and artillery into Ukraine this past week to come to the separatists’ aid will have profound consequences.
> Politically, Putin has sealed Russia’s isolation from its closest European neighbours and trading partners, and made Russia unwelcome in the powerful Group of Eight club of leading industrial democracies.
> 
> Militarily, Moscow’s adventurism has forced the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization to strike a tougher stance. American and Canadian forces have been scrambled to Europe. There are plans for new forward bases, and moves to strengthen NATO’s rapid reaction forces. While only Ukrainians can defend their turf, pressure is building in advance of the NATO summit in Wales next week to help out with military advisers and weapons. And Kyiv wants to be admitted to the alliance.
> 
> Economically, Putin has set up Russia for yet another punishing round of sanctions that can only undermine the devil’s bargain that the public has struck with him to tolerate his corrupt autocracy in exchange for better living standards. Compared to the G-7’s $35-trillion output, Russia’s struggling $2-trillion economy is badly outmatched. And the oligarchs who surround Putin know it.
> 
> If ordinary Russians haven’t yet felt the pinch in lost jobs, lower living standards and unpaid salaries and pensions, they soon will.
> 
> Officials in Moscow acknowledge that economic growth has fallen to “close to zero,” a far cry from the 7- to 8-per-cent growth of Putin’s early years a decade back. Meanwhile, American, British, German and other major foreign lenders are denying Russia the credit it needs to refinance its debt, upgrade infrastructure and increase energy production. Capital is fleeing at an annualized rate of $200 billion. Foreign direct investment fell by $50 billion this year, a vote of non-confidence in the economy. Consumer prices are soaring, along with interest rates. And the ruble has crashed to an all-time low.
> 
> Russian economists fear a harsher downturn than during the global economic crisis of 2009 when output plunged 8 per cent, and thousands of Muscovites rallied behind red banners under a statue of Karl Marx, calling for a return to Communism. There is real hardship ahead.
> None of this is much consolation to Ukraine’s beleaguered people, bullied by their cousin and neighbour. But over time Russia stands to pay the heavier price, as Putin walls it off again.


http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/2014/08/29/vladimir_putins_rusty_iron_curtain_editorial.html

Russia has shown it will take military action to secure its financial aims.  That calls for a strong NATO posture in the east so that Russia does not think it can carve a chunk out of Poland without NATO reaction.  The continued escalations in the Ukraine suggest that Russia believes it is getting away with its actions.  So, why could it not  carve off a Polish province or two and then settle for peace before NATO can get anywhere?


----------



## Edward Campbell

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> GR66
> 
> You could well be right.  Perhaps Putin is bothered by European resolve and won't act against Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia, or Moldova in support of maltreated Russian minorities. (Minorities comprised of Russians who made a career out of maltreating the locals - but I digress - as usual).
> 
> I sincerely doubt that a Guards Army Group is going to barreling through Poland in the direction of Fulda anytime soon.  But a Ukrainian-style non-invasion, as presaged in Georgia, is entirely possible.
> 
> But, Putin is leaving himself a number of options.
> 
> The Kazakhs may well be in his sights next.
> http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/kazakhs-worried-after-putin-questions-history-of-country-s-independence/506178.html
> 
> Kazakhstan would be a softer target than Ukraine.  Less Western interference likely.  The Chinese position would be interesting to see.
> And there have been some interesting issues with Russia moving missiles into the border area with Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan shutting down Baikonur, failed missile launches dropping debris on Kazakh villages.




The Chinese don't like the Kazakhs or the Uzbeks or Tajiks or any of the Turkik peoples, including their own Uyghurs ... they want them as _buffers_ against Russia, not as part of _Greater Russia_. My guess is that any reintegration of any of the Stans into Russia would be unacceptable to China, and I'm also guessing that if Putin doesn't already know that he soon will.


----------



## GR66

What kind of "non-Invasion" can you see taking place in Poland?  It has a population of 38 million of which only 12,000 identify themselves as having at least partial Russian ethnicity.  Where is the Russian base of support there?  Same with Romania, Hungary and Slovakia.  These Russian "salami tactics" need a wedge in order to work.  That Russian wedge doesn't exist in these countries and THAT in my opinion is where the hard NATO wall should have ended.  Let's be very clear.  I'm all in favour of a militarily strong NATO that will brook no Russian interference beyond this wall.  No inciting (even non-Russian) minorities to dissent.  No economic blackmail.  No smuggling of arms or supporting criminal gangs.  Russian actions against this NATO wall should be punished economically and if required militarily.  

Beyond this hard NATO wall - Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Belarus, Moldova - it is much more unclear to me.  The populations are much more split with significant Russian populations in all of them (except perhaps Lithuania with only around 5-6%) and murkier histories where they were all at one time or another controlled by Russia.  I certainly don't like the idea of just turning our backs on the majorities in these nations and letting Russia have its way with them.  But like Eastern Ukraine and Crimea, the situations here are not always as clear cut as we'd like to portray them. 

This is Russia's back (front?) yard and somewhat similar to the Middle East I'm not sure I'm willing to spend significant Canadian blood and treasure to put ourselves in the middle of their ethnic battles.  The Baltic States have the most sympathy from me as I think due to their history they are much more culturally aligned with Western Europe than the other nations in the Russia/EU frontier/buffer zone.  Since they have already been admitted to NATO our commitment to defend them is a done deal and we'll have to live with that decision.  Hopefully they are small enough fish that they don't trigger a conflict with Russia before their Russian minorities are eventually absorbed to the point of irrelevance.  

I think we can certainly support liberal, pro-EU, non-Russian ethnic majorities in Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova.  We can give them money, training, trade deals, intelligence, etc.  However I don't think we should become directly involved militarily with them.  I doubt if Russia really wants to have to deal with occupying the large non-Russian majorities in these countries either.  My guess is that they will gladly gobble up the pro-Russian parts they can and any strategic tidbits they can hold on to but will likely benefit as much from a buffer of sorts from the West as much as we will.

 :2c:


----------



## Kirkhill

GR66

You don't need ethnic Russians within your borders to find populations that could be exploited by external forces.  I am sure that in all of the eastern bloc countries there have been many "losers" resulting from the shift to the west.  East German neo-Nazis, Hungarian Jobbiks, nationalists of many stripes.  What do you think the Yalta conference of "Right" thinking groups was about this weekend?

Again, I quote:



> A number of fascists and neo-Nazis descended on Yalta this weekend, with members of prominent fascist parties like Hungary’s Jobbik due to attend.  They joined Sergei Glazyev, senior adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Maxim Shevchenko a member of Putin’s human rights council, Kremlin-backed militants and their Russian comrades from various far-right and neo-Nazi parties in discussing the fight against the ‘fascist junta in Kyiv’.  A star attraction was surely the proposed formation of a Russian ‘Anti-fascist Council’.
> 
> It is unclear at present how many of the invited members of Belgium’s neo-Nazi Parti Communautaire National-Européen’; fascist Jobbik; far-right British National Party and others actually attended the Aug 29-31 conference on “Russia, Ukraine and Novorossiya: global problems and challenges”.  Reports mention only that people from the relevant countries were present.
> 
> Absence would not, however, indicate lack of support.  A number of the announced guests or parties were involved in something euphemistically called ‘observing’ the Crimean ‘referendum’ on March 16.  Many have since continued to actively defend Russia’s ‘right’ to the Crimea and Kremlin policies generally.


----------



## Marchog

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> So many places to put this one:
> http://khpg.org.ua/en/index.php?id=1409512010
> 
> When is a fascist, not a fascist? When the fascists say so.
> 
> So, to summarize:  The fascists of the world get together and agree with Putin's mouth piece that Ukraine's "Maidan junta" needs to be opposed because it is fascist......
> 
> Is George Orwell or Lewis Carroll writing this script?


The political parties you are describing are not fascists. They are New Right nationalist parties commonly described as such by their opponents, but they do not necessarily adhere to Mussolini (et al)'s ideology. On the other hand, it is true that there are card-carrying, open, self-describing National Socialists and capital-F Fascists involved in some of the pro-UKR private paramilitaries. Yep, the real deal, the real McCoy. 

It seems that a lot of people in the West are confused as to exactly what the overused terms "fascist" and "Nazi" mean, to the point that they are unable to distinguish the real thing when it comes along.


----------



## The Bread Guy

The latest maps from Ukraine (in English - note how Donestsk & Luhansk no longer have a ring of Ukrainian-held land around them anymore, and the herniated border into Ukraine towards Mariupol in the south isn't being pushed back) and from the separatists  (25-31 Aug, in Russian) attached.


----------



## McG

Ukraine separatists now say they will settle for an internal autonomous region.  Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov states that Russia will not intervene militarily ... I guess those were more Not-Russians that just invaded.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-crisis-separatists-soften-stance-on-independence-1.2752227


----------



## MilEME09

MCG said:
			
		

> Ukraine separatists now say they will settle for an internal autonomous region.  Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov states that Russia will not intervene militarily ... I guess those were more Not-Russians that just invaded.
> 
> http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-crisis-separatists-soften-stance-on-independence-1.2752227



just volunteers from the Russian Army who were on "vacation" with their equipment and joy riding tanks


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> just volunteers from the Russian Army who were on "vacation" with their equipment and joy riding tanks


Or paratroopers who got lost ....

Latest maps (UKR info-machine in English, separatist info-machine in Russian) attached.

Also, some products from what appears to be a newish info-machine venue populated by the UKR government and the UKR national press agency:

_"Martial law vs. Anti-terrorist operation -- Why Ukraine did not impose martial law?"_
_Ukraine's volunteer battalions: The new model army -- Volunteer battalions, mistakenly called «paramilitary groups», are military units under the command of the police or army, that have been created to stop the spread of separatism inside Ukraine and for the protection of Ukraine’s borders in the face of Russian aggression ...."_


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Poland has historical concerns about being left out to hang by itself. Having a functioning NATO base in Poland gives them some sense of security and likely better training areas. It would also be an excellent staging point to support Lativa and Estonia if required. Not to mention adding protection to Slovakia and Hungry.


----------



## Lightguns

Poland has a huge base regularly used by the Brits and German does it not?  Both pulled out of Canada to invest in Poland.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Colin P said:
			
		

> Poland has historical concerns about being left out to hang by itself.


As well as a sometimes-forgotten border with (a bit of) Russia to the north where some of these puppies are now based....


----------



## MilEME09

The questions becomes what direction will NATO take after the NATO summit? if they do not come out with a clear hard plan Russia will continue to see NATO (and as a result Europe) weaker. Or maybe we will see of something like CAST being set up (though thats in my opinion is at the low end of military options and just leads to more HQ in the CF) or at the far end which i doubt we would see is 4 CMBG being stood back up in Poland.


----------



## CougarKing

MCG said:
			
		

> Ukraine separatists now say they will settle for an internal autonomous region.  Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov states that Russia will not intervene militarily ... I guess those were more Not-Russians that just invaded.
> 
> http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-crisis-separatists-soften-stance-on-independence-1.2752227



More about the rebels' backing off from wanting full independence, even if they are advancing with the help of Russian armoured columns, as mentioned at the bottom of this post:

680 News Radio



> *New round of Ukraine talks opens with rebels backing off from full independence*
> 
> Lynn Berry, The Associated Press and Vladimir Isachenkov And Jim Heintz, The Associated Press
> Sep 1, 2014 08:31:44 AM
> 
> MOSCOW – Pro-Russian rebels softened their demand for full independence Monday, saying they would respect Ukraine’s sovereignty in exchange for autonomy — a shift that reflects Moscow’s desire to strike a deal at a new round of peace talks.
> 
> The insurgents’ platform, released at the start of Monday’s negotiations in Minsk, the Belarusian capital, represented a significant change in their vision for the future of Ukraine’s eastern, mainly Russian-speaking region.
> 
> It remains unclear, however, whether the talks can reach a compromise amid the brutal fighting that has continued in eastern Ukraine. On Monday, the rebels pushed Ukrainian government forces from an airport near Luhansk, the second-largest rebel-held city, the latest in a series of military gains.
> 
> (...EDITED)




BBC



> *Ukraine crisis: Troops abandon Luhansk airport after clashes*
> 
> Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from the airport of the eastern city of Luhansk after all-night clashes with pro-Russian rebels, the military says.
> 
> Security officials said the Ukrainian troops had come under attack from a column of Russian tanks.
> 
> Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has urged negotiators meeting in the Belarus capital, Minsk, to make an "immediate ceasefire" their priority.
> 
> Some 2,600 people have died in eastern Ukraine since fighting began in April.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## Kirkhill

A workable strategy for Ukraine?  Could any Ukrainian leader deliver on such a strategy?

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141946/alexander-j-motyl/putins-trap



> Putin's Trap
> Why Ukraine Should Withdraw from Russian-Held Donbas
> By Alexander J. Motyl SEPTEMBER 1, 2014
> 
> By now, most observers of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine assume that Russian President Vladimir Putin aims to annex the Donbas region of Ukraine and, possibly, other parts of the country’s southeast, which his regime has taken to calling “New Russia.” But that leaves open two questions: First, why didn’t Putin invade Ukraine immediately after he seized Crimea in early March; and second, why, if he intends to hold the Donbas, would he allow his proxies to shell cities, kill civilians, and destroy mines, plants, schools, and other infrastructure?
> 
> In a recent interview with Marat Gelman, a political commentator for the liberal Russian publication Novoye Vremya, Vladimir Lukin, a veteran policymaker who served as Putin’s human rights commissioner from February 2004 to March 2014 and who represented Russia in the West’s negotiations with Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and the democratic opposition on February 20, offered some answers.
> 
> According to Lukin, the Donbas isn’t the goal at all: “No one in the Kremlin needs the Donetsk People’s Republic, the Luhansk People’s Republic [the self-styled secessionist entities in the Donbas], or New Russia,” he said. Indeed, “to win the Donbas and to lose Ukraine would be a defeat for the Kremlin.” When pressed further about the purpose of the Kremlin’s agitation in the region, Lukin responded that one should “forget the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. The goal is to demonstrate to [Ukrainian President Petro] Poroshenko that he cannot win.” Russia, he said, would “introduce as many [troops] as necessary to persuade Poroshenko that he must negotiate with whomever Putin chooses.” In his commentary about the interview, Gelman went on to explain that, according to Lukin, both Donetsk and Luhansk will serve “as guarantees of [Ukraine’s] nonmembership in NATO.” After all, “any referendum on joining any bloc would have to take place in every region, and if only one were against, then the country could not join.” The Kremlin’s ideal outcome, according to Lukin, is that “everything should go back to as it was under Yanukovych, but without Yanukovych.”
> 
> When asked how long the violence would continue, Lukin explained, “We’re in no hurry. [Poroshenko] is the one who needs to hurry. Or else the girl with the braid” -- former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko -- “will eat him up. Poroshenko’s chair is on fire beneath his butt, not ours.” But people do not need to continue to die. “It was because of the false certainty of the Ukrainians that they could win that they proceeded so actively with the Anti-Terrorist Operation,” Lukin explained. Now, “everyone sees they cannot win” and so “the most militarily active stage has passed.”
> 
> Lukin’s statements make some sense. First, they provide an answer to the question of why Putin didn’t seize the opportunity to invade Ukraine earlier in the conflict. The Ukrainian government and army were completely disorganized after the Maidan revolution, and a quick strike could have won Putin Kiev. If Lukin is right, an invasion may never have been in the cards. Instead, Putin may have placed his hopes on the secessionist movements that formed the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics as a way to get him what he wanted at lower cost. When those failed to win a decisive victory and to prevent a Ukrainian rollback, Putin intervened. In the last few days, he seems to have halted and partially reversed the Ukrainian advance.
> 
> Second, Lukin’s talking points explain the mass destruction. As a result of separatist rule and the ensuing war, several thousand civilians have been killed and wounded, and hundreds of thousands have fled their homes. In addition, industrial production in Donetsk Province has fallen by 29 percent. In Luhansk, it has crashed by 56 percent. Taken together, both provinces have experienced a 46 percent decline in light industry, a 41 percent drop in the chemical industry, a 34 percent crash in machine building, a 22 percent fall in construction materials, a 19 percent decrease in pharmaceutical production, a 13 percent loss in metallurgy, and a 13 percent drop in the coal industry.
> 
> If the proxies’ goal was to “liberate” the Donbas and its Russian residents, then why destroy the territory and make life impossible for the residents? But if, as Lukin suggests, the goal was to ensure that the Donbas remains within Ukraine to thwart integration with NATO and to provide Russia with leverage over Kiev, then maximal devastation would go a long way toward promoting Russia’s political goals. A devastated region would be an economic drain on Kiev’s scarce resources and a source of never-ending political instability. It would also invite continued Russian offers of humanitarian aid, particularly for the region’s reconstruction, which would enable the Kremlin to continue influencing politics in Ukraine without having to try to swallow the whole country.
> 
> Seen in this light, defeating the pro-Russian rebels and the Russian regular forces (estimated to number between 5,000 and 15,000) could be impossible, and accommodating them would be counterproductive. Even if Ukraine liberated the region, as it promises, it will be saddled with a devastated, unstable, and permanently insecure rust belt that will continue to do what it has done since independence in 1991: serve as a channel for Russian influence on Ukraine’s internal affairs and a home to political forces -- whether among the separatists or among Yanukovych’s formerly dominant Party of Regions -- that oppose reform and integration with the West.
> 
> If that is the case, then Kiev’s best way out of Putin’s trap may be to withdraw from the Donbas territories controlled by Russian troops and separatists. The goal would be to turn them not into autonomous federal units within a weak Ukraine, as Putin desires, but into an independent entity, as he pointedly does not. Having turned the tables on Putin, Kiev could then request Western assistance for enhancing its military’s defensive capacities, including building fortifications along its new frontier with Russia and the rump Donbas. Russia and its proxies would then have to clean up the mess they made in the Donbas, Ukraine would be free to pursue integration with the West and the world, and the United States and Europe could breathe a little easier, knowing that the bloodshed had come to an end.
> 
> Of course, all this assumes that Lukin really does know Putin’s mind and was honest in his exchange with Gelman. There is evidence to support both assumptions. On August 31, Putin called on Kiev to begin “substantive, content-filled negotiations about the . . . political organization of society and the state in southeastern Ukraine,” suggesting that the goal of the recent Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine was to lure Kiev into agreeing to some form of federalization for the Donbas. But even if Lukin’s account was inaccurate, Kiev would still have to realistically assess its chances of retaking those parts of the Donbas controlled by Russia -- and of trying to rule those territories afterward. If it decides that its chances of success are small and declining, and that the territories would be impossible to manage, formally abandoning the Donbas and attempting to rebuild a Western country may permit Ukraine to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. By the same token, saddling Putin with two economic sinkholes -- Crimea and the Donbas -- could only hasten his regime’s decline.
> 
> Understandably, Ukrainians -- and especially their ambitious political leaders and courageous volunteer battalions -- will be unwilling to accept such a solution, arguing that soldiers’ and civilians’ lives weren’t sacrificed for the satisfaction of Putin’s imperial designs and that calls to withdraw from the Donbas enclave controlled by Russia are tantamount to treason. Morally, they will be right. And Putin, no doubt, is banking on such morally uncompromising views to influence Ukrainian policy as well. Considering the alternatives, however, Ukrainians might be wise to refuse to play the game on his terms and focus only on what is best for them and their country. If they come to believe that the choice is between constant war, a return to things as they were “under Yanukovych, but without Yanukovych,” or genuine independence within manageable frontiers, they may decide that abandoning an ungovernable stretch that was always Ukraine’s odd man out would actually be a stunning example of Ukraine’s commitment to real sovereignty.
> 
> And who knows? When Putin eventually exits the political stage and Russia tires of Putinism’s misdeeds, the Donbas and perhaps even Crimea may come knocking on Ukraine’s door. If they do, Ukraine could readmit them on its own terms, not on the Kremlin’s.


----------



## cupper

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> just volunteers from the Russian Army who were on "vacation" with their equipment and joy riding tanks



Cause the last thing I want to do on my vacation is the same thing that I do while I am at work.  :nod:


----------



## Retired AF Guy

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> just volunteers from the Russian Army who were on "vacation" with their equipment and joy riding tanks



Can't wait for when a couple bn's of Polish "volunteer's" show-up with Leopard-2 MBTs.


----------



## Edward Campbell

RoyalDrew said:
			
		

> The French begin to up the ante?  Then again why they were ever selling Russia weapons in the first place goes to show how "reliable" some of our non five eyes NATO partners really are.




And now, it appears, according to a report in the _National Post_, "France is suspending the delivery of a hulking warship to Russia amid security concerns about Moscow’s actions in neighbouring Ukraine ... The Vladivostok, the first of two Mistral-class helicopter carriers ordered by Russia, was to be delivered next month. The second — named Sevastopol, ironically, after a port in Russian-annexed Crimea — has been slated for delivery next year."


----------



## Bird_Gunner45

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> And now, it appears, according to a report in the _National Post_, "France is suspending the delivery of a hulking warship to Russia amid security concerns about Moscow’s actions in neighbouring Ukraine ... The Vladivostok, the first of two Mistral-class helicopter carriers ordered by Russia, was to be delivered next month. The second — named Sevastopol, ironically, after a port in Russian-annexed Crimea — has been slated for delivery next year."



With the reputation that French equipment has, perhaps the west should have pushed the sale... I think Canada could help the cause by "donating" some Sea King helicopters to modernize their aging Hip fleet....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Interesting choice of English here by the Russian ITAR-TASS state news agency ....


> A district court in the Ukrainian Black Sea port city of Odessa has arrested the commander of the Prikarpatye battalion on charges of desertion for *finking out* of the combat operations zone in eastern Ukraine, a spokesman for the local military prosecution office said on Thursday.
> 
> According to the spokesman, Vitaly Komarov was taken into custody for a term of two months.
> 
> Last week, about 400 soldiers of the Prikarpatye battalion *finked out* of the zone of combat operations near the town of Ilovaisk. Armed soldiers and officers returned home, to the Ivano-Frankovsk region, by buses and military vehicles. Attempts were made to stop and disarm them in the Kirovograd region. Commander of Ukraine’s land troops Anatoly Pushnyakov arrived there for negotiations with the deserting servicemen, who refused to turn in their weapons and marched further on ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Bumped with the latest UKR, separatist ATO maps (attached) and some interesting news out of the UKR and RUS presidents' offices (highlights mine)....


> President of Ukraine discussed regime of complete ceasefire with President of Russia -- President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko had a phone conversation with President of Russia Vladimir Putin.  *The conversation resulted in an agreement on ceasefire regime in the Donbas*. The parties reached mutual understanding on the steps that will facilitate the establishment of peace.





> Telephone conversation with President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko -- Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko.  The two presidents continued their detailed discussion of the military and humanitarian crisis in Ukraine and exchanged views on priority steps needed to bring about a swift end to the bloodshed in Ukraine’s southeast.  *Mr Putin and Mr Poroshenko expressed to a large extent similar views on possible ways out of the crisis*.


.... as well as from Canada's PMO, via Sun Media:


> The Ukrainian ambassador to Canada has been begging for boots on the ground.
> 
> Wednesday he got his wish with the announcement of Exercise Rapid Trident — an annual multinational exercise being held this month in Ukraine.
> 
> It was announced out of the Wales NATO Summit that Canada will be among 15 nations who will be sent to the war-torn country for the exercise.
> 
> Thirteen Canadian Army soldiers will participate in the exercise, “as Canada continues to support our allies in Eastern Europe,” the Prime Minister’s Office said Wednesday. *Four officers from 5 Canadian Division Headquarters will provide mentorship and support to Ukrainian officers in command positions, while nine Canadian Army Counter Improvised Explosive Device (C-IED) instructors from 4 Engineer Support Regiment “will hone the skills and knowledge of participating soldiers’ C-IEDs methods and techniques,” PMO spokesman Jason MacDonald said* ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest ATO maps (UKR in English, separatists in Russian) attached.

Also, here's a summary of Russia's proposal for a ceasefire:




I wonder how happy Ukraine will be about the proposed "Separatists, stand fast -- Ukrainian forces, 1000 paces step back - MARCH"?

Also, re:  point 7, looks like that could be a good job for the recently-formed Russian military Emergency Response Regiment.


----------



## Good2Golf

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> ...Also, re:  point 7, looks like that could be a good job for the recently-formed Russian military Emergency Response Regiment.



Are their vehicles painted white?   ;D


----------



## McG

Reporters did recently note that they saw several Russian fighting vehicles painted with the label "Peacekeeping Force" on the Russian side of the boarder.


----------



## Kirkhill

Going back to this summary of Russian war aims vs the peace proposals.
http://army.ca/forums/threads/111881/post-1324947.html#msg1324947


Paul Goble



            Staunton, August 29 – “Voyennoye obozreniye,” an online Moscow journal directed at the Russian military and military analysts, has published today  list of seven targets Russian forces are likely to attack in the course of what it describes as “the probable future of the war for Novorossiya.”

            Of course, which ones the Kremlin and Russian commanders will attack and in what order depends not only on Ukrainian resistance but also on the reaction of the West to Moscow’s moves. But this list itself says something about the nature and scope of Vladimir Putin’s intentions in Ukraine (topwar.ru/57093-veroyatnoe-buduschee-voyny-za-novorossiyu.html). 

            While the fighting in eastern Ukraine is intense and while not everything is going well for Russian and pro-Moscow forces, the post suggests that it is nonetheless possible to speak about “major breakouts” as it describes these actions or attacks as they would certainly be perceived by the Ukrainian side. 

            The first target, the “Voyennoye obozreniye” article says, is Mariupol, where Ukrainian forces have concentrated themselves and from which they must be dislodged so that the insurgents can continue to be supplied by Russia. 

*Based on subsequent actions - a lack of heavy force commitment by the Russians to this area I suggest that Mariupol was a feint designed to pull Ukrainian forces away from the encirclement of Donetsk and Luhansk*.

            The second, it continues, is Volnovakha, again a site where Ukrainian forces are concentrated and one that represents a potential “place des armes for cutting off the Azov group of forces from the main ones.

Reducing the forces in Volnovakha may have been the primary focus of the Novoazovsk-Mariupol axis - as noted above - the move towards Mariupol may have caused the Ukrainians to commit their reserves to the defence of Mariupol and thus leaving the Iliovsk forces isolated and vulnerable. 

            The third is Donetsk and especially the airport there which currently is in Ukrainian hands. “The enemy must be driven out of well-fortified places where it has already been sitting for two to three months,” the Moscow publication says. 

The Russians have yet to achieve this aim - but the peace proposal would achieve it for them.

            The fourth target is Debaltsevo which must be taken by a flanking operation in order to destroy “the lion’s share” of Ukrainian artillery and thus defeat the Ukrainian forces in the region as a whole. 

As above - the Russians have yet to achieve this aim but the peace proposals would get the job done for them. Debaltsevo is that Ypres-like salient between Luhansk and Donetsk that both the Russian and Ukrainian maps show. 

            The fifth is the Lisichansk-Rubezhnoye-Severodonetsk area, a naturally defendable position which the Moscow journal says Ukrainian forces have been fortifying in the course of recent weeks and from which they must be driven. 

This war aim has not been achieved and the peace proposal would not address it directly.  However the proposal would obviate the value of the Ukrainians holding this ground by them ceding all the other war aims.

            The sixth is Luhansk and the areas around it to relieve pressure on the insurgents there. 

This has been, together with the drive for Donetsk, the primary focus of Russian efforts on the ground.  The corridor towards Luhansk, together with that to Donetsk, has been where the Russians attacked with their armoured battle groups.

 And the seventh and perhaps most important are efforts to prevent Ukraine from bringing reserves into play by mobilizing the population. The journal implied that military attacks must be coordinated with the requirements of information war in this regard. 

Ukraine and its government has been cowed by its reverses and the knowledge that the Russians can maintain this pace of activity indefinitely while Ukraine is force to make extraordinary efforts to oppose the Russians.

A little bit of armoured force appropriately directed at a feint here and precisely targeted intervention there (estimated at a brigade's worth of battle groups - 3 or 4). 
A suitable bit of misdirection but a timely bit of information release (these entire war aims)
A continuing campaign of "partisan" warfare.
And the sieges of Luhansk and Donetsk are lifted. 


            In the immediate future, the publication says, there is going to be “a difficult struggle” for Novorossiya.” Indeed, it says, “what is taking place now can be compared with the historic battle near Moscow” during World War II.  But just like with that battle, it says, pro-Russian forces can change the course of this war. 

            And Moscow’s “Voyennoye obozreniye” concludes that the insurgents can look forward to a better future if they do. Those forces, it says, “need [only] resist for a couple more months, and then the forces of the [Ukrainian] junta will become” a much less serious problem for Novorossiya and Russia as well.

I would say that Moscow is in sight of proving the validity of those last two paragraphs.

In my opinion I think the Ukrainians need to hold onto Debaltsevo the same way that the Israelis continue to hold their positions in the Golan Heights.  Volnovakha needs to be held along with the ground in the Lysychansk area.  That would contain the Russian incursion to the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk and their supply corridors to the Russian border.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some of the latest from the Twitter-verse:

_"DNR authorities and LNR are ready to cease fire on September 5"_ (TV Zvezda, RUS military-owned network, in Russian
_"Tomorrow at 14:00 Trilateral meeting to take place team. The planned signing of the Peace Implementation Plan for Ukraine"_ (UKR president feed, in Ukrainian)
_"Fighting Breaks Out Near Mariupol; Azov Rushing to Defense."_ (The Interpreter analyst blog) - loads of TWIT-INT coming in on Mariupol - caveat lector ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Another tile in the TWIT-INT mosaic:  UNCONFIRMED reports of Russian military ships looking like they're near the entrance to the Sea of Azov (maybe to park off Mariupol?) - some maps to orient self here:





Bit of UKR ATO map showing Mariupol area as of today:


----------



## CougarKing

Meanwhile US paratroopers head to Ukraine for exercises:

Military.com



> *Sky Soldiers Head to Ukraine for Joint Exercises*
> 
> About *200 paratroopers* from the U.S. Army's 173rd Airborne Brigade will join allied military exercises in Ukraine next week despite Moscow's warnings against a NATO presence during the ongoing crisis in eastern Ukraine, the Pentagon said Wednesday.
> 
> *The "Sky Soldiers" of the 173rd, based in Vicenza, Italy, will focus on patrolling, de-mining and convoy clearance training* from Sept. 15-26 with Ukrainian troops and units from 14 other nations in the annual Rapid Trident exercise, said U.S. Army Col. Steve Warren.
> 
> The exercise will involve approximately 1,300 personnel from nations including Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Canada, Georgia, Germany, Britain, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Norway, Poland, Romania, and Spain.
> 
> *In addition, the U.S. guided-missile destroyer Ross will participate with Ukrainian ships in Sea Breeze naval exercises in the Black Sea from Sept. 8-10*, Warren said.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Mo' help from Canada!


> Prime Minister Stephen Harper today announced that Canada will be providing support for two initiatives that will help Ukraine as well as NATO allies counter the threat posed by Russia’s militarism in the region.
> 
> Support will be provided through the NATO Trust Funds, with a focus on building up Ukrainian command and control and communications and computer capabilities to assist in improving personnel management systems and reform logistics and standardization within the Armed Forces.
> 
> In addition, the three NATO Centres of Excellence in the Baltic region – Cyber Security, Energy Security and Strategic Communications – will each receive support to help Baltic States strengthen the regional framework for addressing the crisis situation ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Usual maps o' the day attached (UKR in English, separatist in Russian).

Other tidbits:

It appears there's a signed ceasefire agreement in place - more from the European Commission's news aggregator and Google News.
UKR President's statement:  _".... The entire world strives for peace, the entire Ukraine strives for peace, including millions of Donbas residents. The highest value is human life. We must do everything possible and impossible to terminate bloodshed and put an end to people’s suffering ...."_
UKR PM statement:  _"To attain peace we need three points: ceasefire, withdrawal of the Russian army, The Wall project"_
Separatists:  Ceasefire =/= independence desires going away


----------



## dapaterson

The New York Times is reporting that parts of the Russian Orthodox Church may be providing support to rebel forces.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/07/world/europe/evidence-grows-of-russian-orthodox-clergys-aiding-ukraine-rebels.html?hpw&rref=world&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&version=HpHedThumbWell&module=well-region&region=bottom-well&WT.nav=bottom-well&_r=0



> ...
> The next morning, he said, heavily armed masked men emerged from the same church cultural center and made their way on foot through back alleys to Slovyansk’s main police station. Within minutes, they had seized the police station and helped ignite what became a brush fire of assaults by pro-Russian rebels on Ukrainian security and government buildings across the east of the country.
> 
> The Russian Orthodox Church, like the Kremlin, has strenuously denied any role in stirring up or aiding separatist turmoil in Ukraine. But as Slovyansk and other towns seized by pro-Russian rebels have fallen over the summer to a since-stalled Ukrainian government offensive in the east, evidence has begun to accumulate of close ties between the church, or at least individual Orthodox priests, and the pro-Russian cause.
> ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR ATO map attached (English) - note the continued rebel push toward Mariupol in the south (maybe to get a port for "New Russia" before the border wall goes up?)

Also, a few tidbits:

Ceasefire _JUST_ holding in spite of reports of shell fire in Donetsk & Mariupol (European Commission news aggregator)
_"Ukrainian militia and separatist forces are responsible for war crimes, Amnesty International said today ...."_ (Amnesty International)


----------



## Kirkhill

One heck of ceasefire there. 

I can only assume that it poor quality Ukrainian gunners that are dropping shorts behind those exposed Ukrainian positions.  Surely the non-Russians wouldn't be dishonourable enough to violate their own ceasefire!


----------



## The Bread Guy

The latest Info-machine maps (UKR in English, separatist in Russian) attached.


----------



## The Bread Guy

The latest:  EU pushes MOAR sanctions (but not right this minute), Russia's PM saying RUS _"will respond “asymmetrically” to new sanctions over the Ukraine crisis, possibly targeting flights over Russia"_.


----------



## jollyjacktar

> Russian military plane circles HMCS Toronto in Black Sea
> 
> HMCS Toronto left Halifax for Mediterranean in late July
> 
> CBC News Posted: Sep 08, 2014 5:41 PM ET|
> 
> Russia's military acted in an "unnecessarily provocative" manner when its aircraft circled a Canadian ship in the Black Sea on Sunday, says Canada's minister of national defence.
> 
> "The acts perpetrated by Russia were unnecessarily provocative and are likely to increase tensions further," said Rob Nicholson in a written statement, saying it did not matter if the aircraft circling HMCS Toronto had posed no threat.
> 
> The frigate HMCS Toronto left Halifax in late July to replace HMCS Regina, which has been a part of the Standing NATO Maritime Forces since May.
> 
> "Canada and its allies are involved in security measures taken by the acts of military aggression perpetrated by the Putin regime and because of the invasion of Ukraine," he said, calling on Russia to stop its "irresponsible actions."
> 
> This ship has about 250 crew on board.


----------



## cupper

Oh the games people play.

Looking more and more like we're going back to the Cold War.

Laissez les bonne temps rouler! ;D


----------



## jollyjacktar

Yes.  The more things change, the more they stay the same.


----------



## Cdn Blackshirt

Can anyone explain why we keep sending non-FELEX frigates to the Black Sea?

HMCS Regina is there now and HMCS Toronto enroute.  

Are the FELEX upgraded vessels having not considered combat-ready?


Matthew.


----------



## MilEME09

Cdn Blackshirt said:
			
		

> Can anyone explain why we keep sending non-FELEX frigates to the Black Sea?
> 
> HMCS Regina is there now and HMCS Toronto enroute.
> 
> Are the FELEX upgraded vessels having not considered combat-ready?
> 
> 
> Matthew.



Most of the ships in the Atlantic fleet are still in dry dock for those upgrades from my understanding


----------



## The Bread Guy

Russia on HMCS Toronto fly-by:  lies, all lies!


----------



## Baz

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> Most of the ships in the Atlantic fleet are still in dry dock for those upgrades from my understanding



At any given time only 1 or 2 are actually in refit on the east coast.

Roughly 4 are done on the east coast, 2 are in, and 1 is left to go (Toronto, the last of the non-HCM deployments).

Lead ship has to do trials, first working up is Fredericton.


----------



## The Bread Guy

The latest maps ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

A chart (in Ukrainian) showing some of the shoulder flashes showing up in eastern Ukraine these days (source, in Ukrainian).


----------



## The Bread Guy

What a difference a few days of ceasefire can make - here's what southern UKR (allegedly) looked like a week ago (similar to UKR's map from Tuesday)....


			
				milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Bit of UKR ATO map showing Mariupol area as of today:


Compare the map of the 9th (attached) with today's (also attached) attached -- quite the corridor of land now in flesh tones roughly between Donetsk and the Black Sea coast.


----------



## The Bread Guy

This just in - "special regime" kicks in for parts of south UKR (highlights mine):


> .... These regime restrictions are not "curfew" and do not limit the rights of citizens who follow these rules.
> 
> 1.*The movement of vehicles and people on the above-mentioned territories is limited*. This does not apply to people who go to or return from work, activities of emergency services, activities of special services which must be confirmed. Entry and movement on these areas are limited for non-resident or those who can not confirmation the purpose of their movement. In other cases, the movement of vehicles and people in the period from 8:00 pm to 6:00 am is not allowed.
> 
> 2.Citizens should bear identification documents while traveling through these territories - national passport with registration record, the documents confirming the purpose of travel (pass, IDs with the details – photograph, actual expiration date, signature of officials, seal).
> 
> 3. *The movement of groups and columns of vehicles (including 2 or more units) is forbidden*, also movement of engineering machinery, large vehicles, including buses is not allowed without permission. This paragraph does not apply to regular bus route. The maximum speed: 40 km per hour.
> 
> 4. *Unauthorized mass events are forbidden. Meetings, concerts and weddings must be agreed with thehead of village council and ATO commanders in advance*. Persons who want to hold a public events should refer to village council and after consultation with ATO commanders the event can take place, but must end until 8:00 pm.
> 
> 5. Citizens without identification documents are not allowed to entry these territories.
> 
> 6. Approaching to the ATO forces dislocation is forbidden without prior coordination with ATO command.
> 
> 7. *The usage of the radio stations, devices for filming, video recording, taking photos are forbidden, photographing and filming the locations, military facilities and infrastructure are not allowed*. If necessary, photo and video must be coordinated with ATO command.
> 
> 8. Fishing, hunting, carrying weapons and ammunition by the civilians, starting the fires, burning areas, usage of fireworks are banned.
> 
> 9.*Police unit patrolling without the involvement of State Border Service of Ukraine employees is prohibited* ....


#9 raises the question:  are we talking Internal Affairs cops, or "militias" when we talk "police"?  If the former, how much faith does the government have in its own cops?

Meanwhile, this from the Ukraininan PM:


> If a peaceful way to settle the situation in Donbas brings no results, there will be no alternative to the introduction of martial law.
> 
> Verkhovna Rada Chairman Oleksandr Turchynov said this in an interview with the Focus magazine published on Thursday.
> 
> "If Donbas is not cleansed in a peaceful way, we will have no alternative to cleansing it from invaders by introducing martial law and mobilizing all resources of the country. I am also convinced that if Russian aggression does not stop, we will be able to see the effect of sanctions from the West, which will lead to the economic collapse of the Russian Federation," the Verkhovna Rada's press service quoted him as saying.
> 
> He said that the presence of Russian troops in Donbas and the invasion of the territory of an independent state had no legal justification, describing this as direct military aggression ....


 op:


----------



## vonGarvin

> we will be able to see the effect of sanctions from the West, *which will lead to the economic collapse of the Russian Federation*


If I were a betting Russian, I'd bet that Gazprom would be turning off the taps to Ukraine right about.....now.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest UKR map attached.
A few tidbits:

_"An Air Force exercise involving the U.S., Canada and Russia was cancelled because of Russia's military intervention in Ukraine, a spokesman for NORAD said ...."_
A touch of message softening from Ukraine's president?  _"Granting special status regions of Donetsk and Lugansk regions not threaten the sovereignty of Ukraine – President"_ (UKR Pres page, in English)



			
				General Disorder said:
			
		

> we will be able to see the effect of sanctions from the West, *which will lead to the economic collapse of the Russian Federation*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> If I were a betting Russian, I'd bet that Gazprom would be turning off the taps to Ukraine right about.....now.
Click to expand...

1)  I'd bet the same way - although Russia's had chances in the past to twist arms this much and hasn't.
2)  I'm intrigued by the harder line UKR's PM is taking compared to the President (good cop-bad cop? "talking" to different bases?).
3)  Even the Russian side's starting to run with the "if Ukraine wins, Russia'll be destroyed" message track baton ....


> Igor Strelkov, the former commander of pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, said Thursday he was relocating to Moscow to protect President Vladimir Putin from enemies and traitors.
> 
> "The West and the 'fifth column' are making no secret of their plans to overthrow Putin. Their path is that of dragging out the war [in Ukraine] as long as possible," Strelkov was cited by LifeNews as saying at a news conference.
> 
> Strelkov, a 43-year-old Muscovite also known by the surname Girkin, said he had no plans to return to eastern Ukraine and would instead stay in Moscow — the new battle front, according to him.
> 
> "I support Putin and am against the 'fifth column.' Russian people need to completely reject any opposition activity," Strelkov was cited as saying in the report ....


More on the same theme in some detail attributed to Strelkov here (in English).


----------



## Colin Parkinson

More likely internal strife in the Pro-Russian camp and sticking around would mean he will get whacked by a competitor or learn the hard way someone is transmitting his position to the other side. A long term fight means winter warfare and that will quickly separate out the hardcore from the wannabes.


----------



## Good2Golf

General Disorder said:
			
		

> If I were a betting Russian, I'd bet that Gazprom would be turning off the taps to Ukraine right about.....now.



What if terrorists were to sabotage Gazprom's infrstructure within the UKR, even if RUS didn't turn off the gas...you know, the gas that was intended to pass through UKR for the rest of Europe...

    ???


----------



## Kirkhill

Good2Golf said:
			
		

> What if terrorists were to sabotage Gazprom's infrstructure within the UKR, even if RUS didn't turn off the gas...you know, the gas that was intended to pass through UKR for the rest of Europe...
> 
> ???



Chilly Europeans and Broke Russians.....

Vlad would add to his domestic problems:

Terrorists in the Caucasus; separatists in Novosibirsk, the Kuban (adjacent to Ukraine and the Caucasus) and Smolensk (between Moscow and Belarus); heart broken mothers and peeved troops in Psovskaya (between Moscow and the Baltics and home of the majority of the "volunteered" in Ukraine); fired Governor in Bryansk (Russian oblast between Moscow and Ukraine) for allowing anti-war protests; 50,000 Anti-war protesters in Moscow in March and another Moscow protest planned for Sept 22.

The one thing Vlad doesn't need is a bunch of broke oligarchs looking for someone to blame.

Meanwhile the price of Natural Gas in Europe is falling despite all the disruption....

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/07/11/could-falling-natural-gas-prices-kill-some-lng-projects/?__lsa=f2e4-6288

Who would you rather be? Stephen Harper or Vlad?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> Chilly Europeans and Broke Russians.....


Yup - already working on that ....


> Russia's gas supplies to Poland have dropped by 45%, Poland's state gas firm PGNiG says, amid tensions over Ukraine.  The news came just hours after Poland stopped providing gas to Ukraine through "reverse-flow" pipelines ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest maps (UKR government in Ukrainian, pro-Ukrainian site in Ukrainian, Russian and English)


----------



## McG

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-29188776

Russian rebels resume offensive operations to take the Donetsk airport, and another Russian convoy enters Ukraine without permission.  Both Russia and Ukraine now describe this as a national war of survival.  The situation is not going to get better any time soon.


----------



## The Bread Guy

A photo from the UKR MoD Info-machine of Canada's troops @ Rapid Trident 2014 in Ukraine, attached -  stay safe, folks!


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest maps (UKR info-machine in English, separatist info-machine in Russian) attached

Also, a few tidbits ....
-- Check out the French fire control system on the Russian T-72 nabbed in Ukraine:









-- UKR Border Guard Service getting ready for winter (in Ukrainian - English translation attached)


----------



## MilEME09

i'm sure france will be taking some more flak now, maybe they should let Ukraine know of any weaknesses in that FCS?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest maps here (UKR gov't in Ukrainian) and here (separatist site, in Russian).

A bit o' the latest:

UKR President in Canada, calling us ‘most Ukrainian country outside Ukraine’ (The Canadian Press)
UKR gov't:  war's costing ~CDN $6.7 million/day (UKR media)
Nothing ensures loyalty among employees from previous management like testing their loyalty (BBC News)
RUS:  time to beef up the military in Crimea (RUS media)
_“*Oligarchs and international donors to rebuild Donbas* — The Ukrainian government is planning to establish a special fund to finance restoration work in Donbas, and oligarchs and international donors will replenish this fund ...."_ (UKR media)
Deja Vu from Yugo (1):  _"The creation of any “people’s police” units in certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions is possible only if they are fully subordinated to the Ukrainian authorities ...."_ (UKR media)
Deja Vu from Yugo (2):  _"Donetsk, Luhansk armies to form armed forces — The new structure will be called the United Armed Forces of Novorossiya …."_ (RUS media)


----------



## vonGarvin

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> i'm sure france will be taking some more flak now, maybe they should let Ukraine know of any weaknesses in that FCS?


That FCS and associated photos are from Russian sources; it's Russian you read there, not Ukrainian.  I suspect those are Ukrainian army tanks.


----------



## KerryBlue

General Disorder said:
			
		

> That FCS and associated photos are from Russian sources; it's Russian you read there, not Ukrainian.  I suspect those are Ukrainian army tanks.



I was under the impression from some friends serving in the UKR army that most of their T-72's have either been sold off or they do not have parts for them and they sit. 

edited to add:

If you read all the comments on the twitter page there seems to be some suggestions and evidence that that particular tank is Russian, was captured by Ukr military and used, then recaptured by rebels/Russian..


----------



## MilEME09

KerryBlue said:
			
		

> I was under the impression from some friends serving in the UKR army that most of their T-72's have either been sold off or they do not have parts for them and they sit.
> 
> edited to add:
> 
> If you read all the comments on the twitter page there seems to be some suggestions and evidence that that particular tank is Russian, was captured by Ukr military and used, then recaptured by rebels/Russian..



my understanding is their 72's were all in reserve at the start of the conflict, sounds like they may be trying to field as many as they can, I do know where they did the work but if they could get the T-84 lines going it may help them.


----------



## KerryBlue

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> my understanding is their 72's were all in reserve at the start of the conflict, sounds like they may be trying to field as many as they can, I do know where they did the work but if they could get the T-84 lines going it may help them.



Understood, but from what I know they were in reserve because they do not have parts to run them. Doesn't make sense to me if they have the Thales FCS installed on tanks they don't use/sit in reserve because they don't have spare parts for them if they break down.


----------



## McG

I don't know about T-72 FCS, but France has been feeding Russian AFV development (including FCS).  http://en.ria.ru/military_news/20130925/183718541/Russia-France-Develop-New-Infantry-Fighting-Vehicle.html



> Russia, France Develop New Infantry Fighting Vehicle
> 25 Sep 2013
> 
> MOSCOW, September 25 (RIA Novosti) – Russia’s Uralvagonzavod and France’s Renault are jointly developing a new infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) with an increased firing range of up to 16 kilometers, the Russian company said Wednesday.
> 
> “We [Uralvagonzavod and Renault Trucks Defense] unveiled today a prototype of a future IFV,” Uralvagonzavod general director Oleg Sienko said at Russian Arms Expo-2013, which opened Wednesday in the Urals city of Nizhny Tagil.
> 
> “*The French side provided us with* the transmission, the engine, the concept and *the fire control system*,”  he said.
> 
> According to Sienko, the new IFV will be highly competitive on global markets because it is equipped with a powerful 57-mm gun, instead of the 30-mm variant that is standard for current IFVs.
> 
> “With its maneuverability and fire power, we are certain that this product will be in high demand on the market,” Sienko said, adding that a joint Russian-French venture could be formed to set up localized production of the new IFV in Russia.
> 
> Renault, France’s second-biggest carmaker, has made the Russian market one of its priorities for international development. Russia is already Renault’s fourth-largest automobile market.
> 
> In 2014, the Renault-Nissan Alliance will get a majority stake in a joint venture with the Russian Technologies State Corporation, called Alliance Rostec Auto BV, which will control AvtoVAZ, leader of the Russian car market.



... and it is available to buyers now:  http://21stcenturyasianarmsrace.com/2014/05/11/russia-is-now-selling-a-french-apc/


----------



## The Bread Guy

KerryBlue said:
			
		

> General Disorder said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That FCS and associated photos are from Russian sources; it's Russian you read there, not Ukrainian.  I suspect those are Ukrainian army tanks.
> 
> 
> 
> If you read all the comments on the twitter page there seems to be some suggestions and evidence that that particular tank is Russian, was captured by Ukr military and used, then recaptured by rebels/Russian..
Click to expand...

Good points, all.  On further digging, here's a few more tidbits from those shots:
1)  The original Tweet w/the pix talks about a Belarussian sighting system with the French Thales "Camera Catherine".
2)  The attached screen capture from the YouTube video showing the tank shows what looks like a plug in the end of the main gun.  I have ZERO experience with tanks, and I would love to hear from some who do, but that said, it appears to be a pretty solid, semi-permanent kind of plug for a vehicle allegedly captured recently in Eastern Ukraine after a road trip from Russia to fight.  If it's of any help, here's what Google Translate says the YouTube caption says (as Gen. Disorder said, in Russian):


> First militia seized a machine. This is an upgraded T-72, almost the maximum combat obvese. The crew threw a tank after being hit by a projectile in the side and a tower. Damage to the combat capability of the machine is not affected. E-filling of foreign manufacture. Allows you to track the movement of tanks ally in the group. This so-called command tank. Very soon he gets up in the sun DNR order.


Thanks, all, for the detailing to help keep me honest (or at least more skeptical)  ;D


----------



## The Bread Guy

I wonder who prepared President Poroshenko's briefing binder (or at least his info-machine's) in preparation for this shot?







> In the course of the working visit to Canada of President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko, the Agreement on the provision of loan guarantees in the amount of CAD 200 million for Ukraine by the Government of Canada has been concluded.
> 
> In the presence of the Ukrainian President and the Canadian Prime Minister, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Pavlo Klimkin and *Minister of Finance of Canada Michael Flaherty* exchanged texts of the Agreement.


Two strikes in one photo - wrong guy named next to PMSH, and wrong guy named as Canadian finance minister.  Ooopsie ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> I wonder who prepared President Poroshenko's briefing binder (or at least his info-machine's) in preparation for this shot?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Two strikes in one photo - wrong guy named next to PMSH, and wrong guy named as Canadian finance minister.  Ooopsie ....


Well, they at least fixed the Finance Minister's name, even if he's not in the photo.


----------



## Edward Campbell

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Well, they at least fixed the Finance Minister's name, even if he's not in the photo.




Yes he is; unless my eyes are worse than even I think, that's Joe Oliver on the right, holding the blue folder.

Edited to add:

And I think Joe Oliver's presence matters. I just heard on the radio that the _Ukrainian diaspora_ is not centered, any longer, in the prairie provinces. The Canadians of Ukrainian descent who appear to care most about the situation in the "old country" are, in fact, third or fourth generation Canadians, the grandchildren and great-grandchildren of the Ukrainian "sodbusters" who came to the prairies at the turn of the last century. They are now living in suburban Ontario ridings ... ridings the Tories need to hold in 2015. Looks, to me, like we'll be sending money ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Yes he is; unless my eyes are worse than even I think, that's Joe Oliver on the right, holding the blue folder.


I had to enlarge it a bit, but I'm wrong and you're right.  It looked, in smaller format, like Tony Clement.

Edited to add:



			
				E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> And I think Joe Oliver's presence matters. I just heard on the radio that the _Ukrainian diaspora_ is not centered, any longer, in the prairie provinces. The Canadians of Ukrainian descent who appear to care most about the situation in the "old country" are, in fact, third or fourth generation Canadians, the grandchildren and great-grandchildren of the Ukrainian "sodbusters" who came to the prairies at the turn of the last century. They are now living in suburban Ontario ridings ... ridings the Tories need to hold in 2015. Looks, to me, like we'll be sending money ...


Interesting .... During the Balkan wars in the '90's, I heard a lot of people say it was second- and third-generation folks who were _more_ pumped here about the situation than some who left the old country itself.


----------



## Edward Campbell

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> ...
> Interesting .... During the Balkan wars in the '90's, I heard a lot of people say it was second- and third-generation folks who were _more_ pumped here about the situation than some who left the old country itself.




I've heard the same thing; I haven't seen any documented evidence (but I haven't looked, either). It strikes me as being a bit strange, but ... I'm a fifth or sixth generation Canadian of (mostly) British descent but I really don't care, overly much, about what happens to Scotland, for example, except in real economic terms - how will it effect my investments?  - and in more or less academic terms - how will a "Yes" vote play out? Maybe I'm odd ... I regard myself as Canadian, period.


----------



## Lightguns

I recall a small riot outside a Serb Friendship Society hall in Oshawa during the push into Croatia.  Croats were protesting some unflattering comments about Croats by the local Serbs in the local rag.  The end result was a huge police presence for days around the hall.


----------



## a_majoor

Some observations about the use of artillery in the current conflict. It is not too surprising that the Russians are better at it, historically they considered Artillery to be Бог войны (The God of War), and were quite proficient in the application and use. The Ukrainians seem to lack sufficient trained artillery officers to plan and conduct operations, and are obviously deficient in combined arms tactics as well. although Russian "Info Ops", use of Spetsnaz units and civilian irregular/auxiliary forces certainly complicates matters, since regular fire plans and the other skillets, doctrine and equipment of "peer to peer" conflict are not designed for "Non Linear" war the way the Russians practice it. (Some consideration should also be given to the fact that the Chinese doctrine of "Unrestricted Warfare" also offers far fewer venues for Peer to Peer fighting as well):

http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/military/weapons/the-right-and-wrong-way-to-use-artillery-ukraine-edition-17223080?click=pm_news



> *The Right (and Wrong) Way to Use Artillery: Ukraine Edition*
> When Russia-Ukraine becomes an artillery war, everyone loses.
> By Joe Pappalardo
> September 18, 2014 5:30 PM
> 
> It just wouldn't be a European war without the bang-whistle-bang of artillery shells flying back and forth. Maybe it’s something about nations warring with their neighbors, but European militaries have taken to bombarding each other with alarming frequency ever since the cannon was invented. That goes for the current battle in Ukraine, too. And these days, truck-mounted rocket artillery has joined the fight.
> 
> Tactically speaking, there are wise and unwise ways of using artillery. The good, bad, and ugly of artillery tactics can be seen in the battle for Donetsk. In general, the Ukrainians have not put artillery good use as the Russians, and are suffering because of it.
> 
> Shock and Awe
> 
> The obvious use for artillery is to kill the other guy at a distance, but it's also a tool for simply keeping foes of balance. Reuters caught a good moment of this when they were talking to separatist leaders. During the interviews, shells began to fall, scattering them into a cellar.
> 
> But the demoralizing nature of a shelling—the shock and awe effect—must be combined with action and success. As the U.S. Marine Corps puts it: Shooting without maneuver is a waste of ammo. At Donetsk, Ukraine was using artillery to cover its advance: With artillery softening Donetsk’s defenses and morale, Ukrainian government forces moved in—at least until the momentum bogged down when the Russians intervened.
> 
> But the Ukrainians haven't always been following the Marines' adage. All too often, their artillery is being used in stalemate situations. For example, the government shelled the city of Luhansk for weeks to no avail, as the sepratist Luhansk People’s Republic hunkered down and endured. Not only that, but the images of damaged buildings make for a useful psychological weapon within Russia and the battered city. Being bombed makes a population angry and can increase morale—if it’s not overwhelming and/or followed by ground action. And it allows the other side to set up an artillery duel. Like most of these in history, it will end with no conclusive winner. A diplomat or foot soldier will finish the fighting, not a shell or rocket.
> 
> And civilians are the ones who lose an artillery duel. Human Rights Watch members in the city "examined remnants of 122 mm unguided Grad rockets and artillery projectiles of various calibers, up to 152 mm," one report reads. “These remnants of ordnance had been collected from populated areas where attacks had killed and injured civilians." Since both sides use the same ordnance, it’s not often clear who’s to blame. HRW says 300 civilians have been killed since May, many in these indiscriminate artillery attacks.
> 
> Siege
> 
> In a tactical sense Russian troops have been smarter in their application of artillery, using it in clever and sly ways to maximize its impact. For one, they have taken shots from Russian soil, ruling out retaliation. (The Ukrainian government knows that if it shot back, the Russians would use that as a pretext for more severe actions—like a full scale invasion instead of this shadowy one. Finding a way to shoot without being shot at is a cornerstone of ranged combat, and Russia is winning at it.
> 
> The vital town of Ilovaisk, outside Donetsk and sitting on a rebel resupply route, is a perfect example of the use of another artillery tactic by which Russia and the separatists are beating Ukraine. The separatists saw Ukrainian forces reinforcing parts of this strategic city, and simply hemmed them in by pounding them with indirect fire. It became the nightmare of warfare: a siege. Modern weapons makes the inability to maneuver a death sentence. (The best write up of the siege in English comes from the Financial Times.)
> 
> Stalemate
> 
> Critical strategic areas like airports have changed hands several times recently, and a stalemate has developed. And despite a cease-fire, the artillery duel goes on—it's a cheap and easy way to keep the other guy from advancing or getting too comfortable. Soldiers with any sense are dug into bunkers and buildings.
> 
> Meanwhile, innocent people die. This Wednesday, it was a handful of civilians who caught shrapnel. Two died. And on goes the shelling.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest maps (UKR government in Ukrainian, separatist map in Russian) attached.

The latest out of Minsk - might end up more Cyprus than Yugoslavia?


> Participants in the Minsk talks of the Contact Group on Ukraine in the early hours of Saturday agreed on the creation of a buffer strip, which will be at least 30 kilometers wide, in the conflict zone in the east of Ukraine.
> 
> "A memorandum [on the peaceful settlement of the conflict in the east of Ukraine, which was adopted by the Contact Group on Ukraine in Minsk] stipulates the removal by each side of large-caliber weapons at a distance of at least 15 kilometers. Thus, a safety zone, which will be at least 30 kilometers wide, will be created," former Ukrainian president Leonid Kuchma told reporters after the negotiations in Minsk.
> 
> The memorandum also suggests the removal of large-caliber weapons from the contact line and bans the use of heavy weaponry near villages, towns and cities.



More on the deal here (Google News).


----------



## George Wallace

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.



> Newsweek Europe Exclusive: Russian Soldiers Reveal the Truth Behind Putin's Secret War
> 
> NEWSWEEK EUROPE
> By Anna Nemtsova / September 10, 2014 11:37 AM EDT
> 
> yudmila Malinina’s voice trembled as she described the secret funeral she witnessed on a recent night in her small town of Sudislavsky in the Kostroma region of central Russia. At about 8pm, a truck parked at the cemetery a few yards away from her wooden house. The truck’s headlights stayed on to illuminate the ground for several men to hurriedly dig the grave, “as if they were thieves hiding something”, Luydmila says.
> 
> More neighbours popped out of their windows and doors to watch and discuss the strange scene, wondering why anybody would bury a relative at this hour. Besides, that part of the graveyard was reserved for the deceased in war, as somebody pointed out.
> 
> While Nato sat down for a summit to decide what to do about the war in Ukraine, and Vladimir Putin negotiated a ceasefire deal with Kiev, Russian society recoiled from reports about secret funerals of soldiers killed in Ukraine: missing sons, calls from husbands begging their wives to save them from ­battle, bodies with missing limbs arriving in coffins to Nizhny Novgorod, Orenburg, Pskov, Murmansk, Dagestan and other regions of Russia. The death toll for Russian soldiers jumped to more than 200 soldiers in a few days, between August 12th and September 2nd, in a war that was, officially, not happening
> 
> Russian army wives have a special term for dead soldiers returning home from the front lines in zinc coffins: they are called “cargo 200” – a phrase that has echoed like a curse to a Russian ear since the days that a tide of zinc packages came in from Afghanistan during the Soviet war of 1980s. The secrecy around their husbands’ deployments “was like a trap created by a schizophrenic”, one of the Kostroma paratroopers’ wives says.
> 
> One of the soldier contractors, who served in Ukraine, described “the longest August” of his life on the front, in a phone interview with Newsweek. What was the worst part? Wounded friends dying in Rostov hospitals; the men in zinc, the “200s” being sent home, and a high risk of becoming one. “When we were on the train to Rostov last month, I had no idea we were to go to Ukraine; we all believed they brought us to a base for the usual routine exercises. If I knew it was for war, I’d have quit back in Kostroma, as I have two little children at home,” the paratrooper of the 331st regiment of Russia’s 98th Guards Airborne Division, says.
> 
> What mattered to the paratrooper most were the men on his left and right, his children and wife waiting for him in his hometown of Kostroma, 320km north of Moscow. Among his fellow men, he says, there was little understanding of Putin’s idea to establish Novorossiya, or New Russia, as a separatist state in eastern Ukraine.
> 
> Who was Russia’s main enemy? That answer seemed instantly ready: “America.” In a few days on the front lines under constant fire, the Kostroma paratrooper “dried up down to the bones”, not from the lack of food but from the constant fear of death, he said, that he had never experienced before.
> 
> Earlier that day, his regiment was brought back to the base in Rostov region, to wash in the banya, or Russian steam bath, and have one night of solid sleep. The soldiers had their first chance for a break from battle, for a quick chat with families since they crossed the Ukrainian border on August 18th. So as not to be identified as Russian regular forces, commanders ordered the paratroopers to change into the Western military surplus desert camouflage their wives had to buy for them, with their own money.
> 
> Nobody asked the servicemen to sign any additional papers, though current contracts did not stipulate deployment to a foreign state. “I never volunteered for this; but any attempts to quit would be useless – they are sending us back to the meat grinder tomorrow; if somebody told me earlier about the truth, none of us would have signed up for $1,000 a month to get fried alive in Ukraine,” says the officer in his thirties, who requested his identity be concealed.
> 
> The use of misleading uniforms to sneak into foreign territory for a secret operation does not surprise Russian military experts. One Moscow-based army analyst recalled the earlier “masquerades” or false flag operations under Soviet military doctrine, sending Soviet and Russian commandos dressed as locals in Afghanistan and in Chechnya: “Our forces conducted secret operations in the Middle East and in Africa this way. Putin’s strategy is not unique,” says the analyst who declined to be named.
> 
> While the Russian leaders stuck to their denials, mobile phone chats and social media forums fill up with images of ­the country's artillery and “Grad rocket” launchers rolling across Ukrainian border. Russian internet users across the country watched videos of army mothers and wives covering their wet-with-tears faces with both hands, begging Putin to free their loved ones “in God’s name”, as well as video interviews with soldiers captured by Ukrainian forces.
> 
> Early each morning, paratroopers’ wives crowded on Nikitskaya Street outside the Airborne Division, waiting to hear more official explanations about their husbands “participating in military drills in Rostov”.
> 
> The women spoke to their husbands on the phone and knew the truth. “My boy asked me to go to church and light candles for his survival, as they were herded back to Ukraine,” one of the terrified wives, Veronika Tsiruyeva, says.
> 
> The invasion of Ukraine has been happening in slow motion since spring. On the afternoon of April 16th, professional-looking militia in green uniforms surrounded the perimeter of the administration building on the Square of October Revolution in Slaviansk, a city in eastern Ukraine.
> 
> “We are ‘polite green men’, born in the USSR, just the same as in Crimea,” one of them told me. A few days later, rebels occupied one more Ukrainian town, Horlivka. Their commander Anatoly Starostin described what “a great relief” it was to have support from Russian special forces. “They are about 60 top-class professionals, unspeakably well-trained,” Starostin said of the “polite green men”. Russian special forces took over television transmitters, so locals would watch only Russian state channels covering the Kremlin’s official line.
> 
> It wasn’t long before the first truck with a large, crookedly written “200” on its side rolled into Russia on June 2nd, bringing back 31 bodies of Russian “volunteer” soldiers, mostly in their late 30s to early 40s. Afterwards, members of the press in the courtyard of Kirovsky Hospital’s morgue in Donetsk, watched doctors and rebels whispering over the wooden coffins: “Let them receive them on the other side and figure out where to send the refrigerator,” they muttered, clueless about the final destination.
> 
> No Russian state channels mentioned the 31 red coffins making their way home across the sunflower fields; it took days for families of “the volunteers” to break through the wall of secrecy and find the frozen bodies of their men.
> 
> This month, Russian commanders planned to demonstrate unprecedented nuclear forces exercises involving Supersonic MiG-31 fighter-interceptors and Su-24MR reconnaissance aircrafts. The Kremlin warned the west against welcoming Ukraine to join Nato, as the alliance began their drills on Ukraine’s western border. As the sides of the conflict sat down for talks, Putin’s security advisers changed the military doctrine, lowering Russia’s threshold for using nuclear weapons. As mainstream television channels pumped the anti-Americanism muscle on a daily basis, commanders drilled soldiers to fight the war against America and Nato.
> 
> Meantime, back in Sudislavskoye village, news about the secret burial travelled fast, from door to door until the entire neighbourhood spoke the truth: “The deceased man in the grave was Dmitry Kustov, a drafted soldier, serving in the army since last year,” Lyudmila says. For some reason wholly unknown to his family, Dima ended up fighting a war in a foreign country, Ukraine, in late July. “He hadn’t lived long enough,” locals say of the 20-year-old soldier quietly buried in the twilight.



More on LINK


----------



## The Bread Guy

And in Kherson, in southern Ukraine, they held a telethon to raise a few bucks for the military (UKR MoD, in Ukrainian) - a few pix:












The article says they raised about CDN$6,800 in cash, and CDN$7,250 in non-cash donations.


----------



## Kirkhill

The BBC on anti-war demonstrations in Moscow and St Petersburg as well as on the ceasefire that has seen artillery rounds expended at the same rate as before the ceasefire

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29300213


----------



## a_majoor

More on the anti war rallies:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russian-peace-march-draws-tens-of-thousands-in-support-of-ukraine/2014/09/21/c5a45f35-b07c-4e7b-81ae-8c7d8fcaa0bd_story.html



> *Russian peace march draws tens of thousands in support of Ukraine*
> 
> Demonstrators clash during an anti-war rally and march Sunday in downtown Moscow. Thousands marched through central Moscow to protest the fighting in Ukraine. (Pavel Golovkin/Associated Press)
> By Karoun Demirjian September 21 at 7:35 PM 
> 
> MOSCOW — A march for peace in Ukraine drew tens of thousands to downtown Moscow Sunday in a show of protest against Russia’s involvement in the conflict.
> 
> The demonstration drew a mixed crowd of old and young, families and organized factions, who walked the route chanting songs and slogans — the most common being a simple, “No to war.”
> 
> “This march is to show the people that there’s quite a number of people who are against the war and don’t think that most Ukrainians are fascists,” said Mikhail Garder, 28. “The government knows that. The people don’t.”
> 
> Participants walked on either side of a divided boulevard under heavy police supervision, many carrying or dressed in the colors of the Ukrainian flag, while others brought handmade signs calling for an end to the bloodshed, the return of Crimea and the rejection of Russian President Vladimir Putin — sometimes depicted with a Hitler-style mustache. The event attracted a variety of subgroups as well, such as feminist activist groups and representatives of various opposition parties.
> 
> But the march — which took place on a sunny, warm afternoon — seemed to draw as many curious observers to walk the route as it did dedicated demonstrators.
> 
> A woman wears a traditional Ukrainian flower headband during the anti-war rally in downtown Moscow. (Pavel Golovkin/Associated Press)
> 
> People paused to take photographs and applaud those who stood along the route with signs bearing comical slogans — such as one man whose poster read, “Putin, our hemorrhoids,” a play in Russian on “Putin, our hero” — and lengthier demands, such as Yuri Smagurov’s plea to Putin to “stop the armed and political aggression” in Ukraine.
> 
> “A war with Ukraine, that’s the most ridiculous, the most idiotic thing that Putin could have come up with,” Smagurov said. “We have put ourselves in such a position that we’re against everybody — against Europe, against ourselves, against the United States, against normal life.”
> 
> The march is the second peace rally to be held this year but the first since open hostilities commenced in eastern Ukraine.
> 
> Ukrainian government troops and pro-Russian separatists are operating under a tenuous, Kremlin-endorsed cease-fire that NATO officials have said is effective “in name only.” Western nations have accused Russia of fomenting the conflict by supporting the rebels and sending Russian tanks and troops over the border.
> 
> In Russia, officials have denied the accusations, and the mostly state-run media have portrayed a different picture of what is happening in Ukraine — one in which rebels are fighting to maintain minority rights against the alleged abuses of a purportedly fascist government. Polls have indicated that Kremlin policy toward Ukraine is overwhelmingly popular.
> 
> Counterprotesters bearing pro-separatist flags and a banner reading “March of Traitors” echoed those sentiments Sunday, but most of them were kept at bay outside the security barriers.
> 
> Yet the message still hit too close to home for many participants in Sunday’s march.
> 
> Protesters carry Ukrainian flags during the anti-war rally in Moscow. (Maxim Shemetov/Reuters)
> 
> “I have a Russian passport, but I am Ukrainian,” said Irina Kiseleva, 34, who walked wrapped in a Ukrainian flag alongside her husband, Igor Kiselev, wrapped in a Russian flag. With tears in her eyes, she said that when she hears Ukrainians referred to as fascists, “that hurts me.”
> 
> Certain protesters sought to counter the Russian messaging with signs pleading: “Forgive us, Ukraine” and “Remember to turn off the television.”
> 
> But many worried that Sunday’s showing would not be effective.
> 
> Habitual protesters hoped that the crowd would at least rival the 50,000 who rallied for peace in March, just before Russia annexed Crimea. Though tens of thousands did participate in Sunday’s demonstration — the official police estimate of 5,000 seemed quite low — it fell short of the goal.
> 
> “Then, the war wasn’t active, at least, but now there’s an active war between our countries,” said Irina Ginesina, 37. “The people are total zombies as to what is happening.”
> 
> But others thought that the gathering, though perhaps not as large as past demonstrations, was a net positive for bringing people out to the street at a time when dissent is being stifled.
> “There are many new faces — that’s really important,” said Olga Mazurova, 53. “The more people realize this isn’t right for our country, the better.”
> “We must always show [Putin] that there are people who think differently,” said Tatyana Komendant, 62. “There is a lot of propaganda — but you write that we don’t all think that way.”


----------



## The Bread Guy

This from the Info-machine:


> Approximately 100 Canadian Army soldiers from the 3rd Battalion, The Royal Canadian Regiment (3 RCR) departed Trenton, Ontario, today for Eastern Europe as part of military activities undertaken by the Canadian Armed Forces to support NATO assurance measures in the wake of the Putin regime’s aggression.
> 
> The 3 RCR contingent, part of 2 Canadian Mechanized Brigade Group based in Garrison Petawawa, will relieve another contingent of soldiers who are currently participating in Operation REASSURANCE and returning to Canada on September 24 ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

According to a Google translation of this from the Ukrainian National Guard page (screen capture and Google translation attached), Nat Gd reps met with (what appear to be) Probably CADSI Vice-president Operations Gerry Champagne and Director, Global Defence and Security Sales for the Canadian Commercial Corporation Stan Jacobson (even though the article calls him "Senator", there's no Senator Jacobson in the Senate) in September.  

If the translation is to be believed, they _"discussed the legal basis for continued cooperation and agreed to transfer to special units of the National Guard of Ukraine three armored Sherpa Scout 4x4 for testing during the military operations in the east."_


----------



## Old EO Tech

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> And in Kherson, in southern Ukraine, they held a telethon to raise a few bucks for the military (UKR MoD, in Ukrainian) - a few pix:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The article says they raised about CDN$6,800 in cash, and CDN$7,250 in non-cash donations.



Maybe we should try this for some extra NP funds


----------



## CougarKing

A sign that the Ukraine ceasefire will hold much longer? Or a temporary movement away from Ukraine on the part of the Russian military?

Reuters



> *NATO sees significant pullback of Russian troops from Ukraine*
> 
> BRUSSELS (Reuters) - NATO has observed a significant withdrawal of Russian forces from inside Ukraine, but many Russian troops remain stationed nearby, an alliance military spokesman said on Wednesday.
> 
> *"There has been a significant pullback of Russian conventional forces from inside Ukraine, but many thousands are still deployed in the vicinity of the border,"* Lieutenant-Colonel Jay Janzen said in an e-mailed response to a request from Reuters for comment.
> 
> "Some Russian troops remain inside Ukraine. It is difficult to determine the number, as pro-Russian separatists control several border crossings and troops are routinely moving back and forth across the border. Further, Russian special forces are operating in Ukraine, and they are difficult to detect," he said.
> 
> (...EDITED)




Military.com



> *Kiev Notes Progress on Eastern Ukraine Cease-Fire*
> 
> Associated Press | Sep 22, 2014
> KIEV, Ukraine — Both government troops and pro-Russian rebels began withdrawing heavy artillery in the east of the country, Ukrainian officials said Monday, a significant step toward implementing an effective cease-fire in the region.
> 
> Col. Andriy Lysenko, spokesman for Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, said Kiev's forces had started withdrawing from frontline positions. He said the rebels had also begun their withdrawal of heavy artillery, although it was "not as massive as we expected."
> 
> "We are seeing a trend that (the rebels) are reducing their use of heavy armed weaponry," Lysenko told journalists in Kiev. He said neither Kiev nor the rebels had completed their withdrawals, but said he hoped the rebels "will follow the example of the Ukrainian servicemen."
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## CougarKing

Perhaps it was inevitable this ceasefire would be violated yet again...

Military.com



> *Cease-Fire In Eastern Ukraine Reportedly Violated
> *
> Associated Press | Sep 24, 2014 | by Darko Vojinovic
> DONETSK, Ukraine — *Mortar fire struck an apartment block in the rebel-held east Ukraine city of Donetsk overnight, yet another violation of a cease-fire between government forces and pro-Russian insurgents.*
> 
> While both sides said Tuesday they saw progress on the ground in fulfilling an agreement to pull back heavy artillery weapons from the front-line, on Wednesday Kiev accused the rebels of violating a cease-fire imposed Sept. 5.
> 
> "The situation remains difficult," Col. Andriy Lysenko, spokesman for Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, told journalists in Kiev on Wednesday. "Ukrainian detachments comply with the cease-fire regime but the terrorists continue provocations," he said, referring to the pro-Russian separatists.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Like THIS isn't going to stir up a bit of controversy ....


> Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said it is worth considering assigning the status of combatant to veterans of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists - Ukrainian Insurgent Army (OUN-UPA).
> 
> "This is a very important issue and one that was raised in a very timely manner. Previously, this issue split the country and was not on the agenda... Now is the right time," he told a press conference in Kyiv on Thursday.
> 
> The president also added that he sees OUN-UPA fighters as examples of heroism.


Usual caveats apply, but here's Wikipedia's consolidated take on the OUN-UPA - one man's "time to put history behind us" is another man's "honouring ethnic cleansers".


----------



## Edward Campbell

Now, according to this article, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the _Financial Times_, Vladimir Putin is threatening “immediate and appropriate retaliatory measures” if Ukraine moves to implement any parts of the recently ratified EU-Ukraine trade deal:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a4de51ae-44ca-11e4-9a5a-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz3ELzMaymc


> Putin demands reopening of EU trade pact with Ukraine
> 
> By Peter Spiegel in Brussels
> 
> September 25, 2014
> 
> Vladimir Putin has demanded a reopening of the EU’s recently-ratified trade pact with Ukraine and has threatened “immediate and appropriate retaliatory measures” if Kiev moves to implement any parts of the deal.
> 
> The demand, made in a letter to European Commission President José Manuel Barroso, reflects Russia’s determination to put a brake on Ukraine’s integration into Europe and other Euro-Atlantic organisations such as Nato, even after annexing Crimea and creating a pro-Russian separatist entity in the east of the country.
> 
> It also comes amid a fresh crackdown on Russia’s oligarchs, exemplified by the recent house arrest of billionaire businessman Vladimir Yevtushenkov, which was extended by a court on Thursday.
> 
> The integration treaty was the spark that set off the 10-month Ukraine crisis after the country’s then-president, Viktor Yanukovich, backed out of the deal. Petro Poroshenko, the new Ukrainian president, has made integration with the EU a key objective of his presidency.
> 
> But this is strongly opposed by Moscow, which is determined to keep Ukraine within its own economic sphere of influence.
> 
> Mr Putin’s letter argues that a 15-month delay in implementing part of the deal – which Kiev and the EU agreed to earlier this month – should be used to “establish negotiating teams” to make wholesale changes to the deal.
> 
> Ukraine and the EU agreed to the delay under Russian pressure but view it only as a means of reassuring the Kremlin that it will not harm Russian economic ties to Ukraine.
> “We still believe that only systemic adjustments of the association agreement, which take into account the full range of risks to Russian-Ukrainian economic ties and to the whole Russian economy arising from implementation of the agreement, will allow [us] to retain existing trade and economic considerations between the Russian Federation and Ukraine,” Mr Putin says in his letter.
> 
> EU officials have remained adamant the treaty cannot be changed despite Kremlin demands that as many as 2,400 tariff lines be modified in the pact.
> 
> “We are creating a kind of ‘time out’; you could call this a ‘peace clause’,” Karel De Gucht, the EU’s trade chief who negotiated directly with Mr Putin last month in Minsk, said in an interview. “The Russians, of course, they do not see this as a period of clarification but as a time they can put on the table a personne interposée [third party] – in fact emptying the agreement.”
> 
> Mr Putin’s letter appeared part of a growing realisation in Moscow that the 15-month hiatus had not won the Kremlin any concrete concessions since it allowed the treaty’s ratification to proceed. According to one person briefed on internal Kremlin deliberations, the hiatus led to a bust-up within the Russian government shortly after it was agreed.
> 
> “There was a complete breakdown in communication within the administration, and those participating in the talks including economy minister [Alexei] Ulyukaev got scolded really badly,” said the person.
> 
> In the letter, sent the day after the Ukrainian and European parliaments simultaneously ratified the pact, Mr Putin warns any move towards changing Ukrainian laws to better align them with EU regulations would be considered “an infringement” of the hiatus warranting retaliation.
> 
> “It’s like a scud that’s prepared. It’s not yet launched, but it’s ready to be launched,” said Mr De Gucht. He insisted the agreement had no provisions preventing Kiev from adjusting its domestic standards during the hiatus.
> 
> Mr Poroshenko on Thursday set out an ambitious plan designed to get Ukraine ready to apply for EU membership by 2020, an indication he is unwilling to delay legislative reforms despite the Russian threat. The plan included measures to fight corruption, decentralise power, reduce Ukraine’s reliance on Russian energy and reform the justice systems.
> 
> The new stand-off over the treaty comes ahead of a meeting on Tuesday of EU diplomats tasked with weighing whether to suspend sanctions imposed on Russia. A senior Nato diplomat said conventional Russian troops had mostly withdrawn from Ukraine and a recent exchange of prisoners was a sign Mr Putin, for the first time, may be serious about de-escalation.
> 
> But EU diplomats said it remains highly unlikely Brussels would back off any measures next week, saying the largest European countries – particularly Germany – believe the Kremlin has not done nearly enough to warrant such a move.
> 
> Although the European Commission has been tasked with drawing up options to suspend the sanctions, Mr De Gucht said it was unlikely to recommend such actions. “At this moment in time, there is no reason whatsoever to change anything to the sanctions,” he said. “What you really should have is a peace plan respecting the territorial integrity of Ukraine. That’s not yet in place.”
> 
> _Additional reporting by Neil Buckley in London and Kathrin Hille in Moscow_




This is a "line in the sand,' a real one, not a _namby-pamby_ Washington 'line in the sand,' and I _suspect_ that Putin is prepared to take on the entire EU. I _doubt_ the EU has the spine to stand up to him; I'm 99.99% sure America doesn't.


----------



## vonGarvin

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> This is a "line in the sand,' a real one, not a _namby-pamby_ Washington 'line in the sand,' and I _suspect_ that Putin is prepared to take on the entire EU. I _doubt_ the EU has the spine to stand up to him; I'm 99.99% sure America doesn't.



Things just got a whole lot more "interesting".  The marching on Kyiv and the plebiscite (licit or not) in Crimea are nothing compared to this pissed-off Russian.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Depends, If the US parked a full division in Western Ukraine ans said nothing, Putin would get the message and bluster, but nothing else. The idea is show him your serious but let him have a way out.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Colin P said:
			
		

> Depends, If the US parked a full division in Western Ukraine ans said nothing, Putin would get the message and bluster, but nothing else. The idea is show him your serious but let him have a way out.




 :rofl:  :rofl:  :rofl:  
.
.
.
.
.
.
... you're not being serious, are you?


----------



## vonGarvin

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> :rofl:  :rofl:  :rofl:
> .
> .
> .
> .
> .
> .
> ... you're not being serious, are you?



One US division in Ukraine?  

Putin is not amused...  

;D


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Actually Putin would understand such a message and likely respect it, it is after all in his language. The waffling by western leaders likely feeds his need to take yet another bite. Putin cannot afford a war with the West and he knows it, but he also knows that the US is for now a lame duck, NATO is weak and he has enough forces and enough justification to act now and allow the "possession is 9/10th of the law" effect to take hold. It's unlikely that the conditions to take this territory without real risk will stay aligned for long.


----------



## McG

"Playing chicken" was a factor in the starting the First World War.

In the unlikely event of a US Division deployment into the Ukraine, the west would successfully ensure that any escalation immeadeatly becomes the next Great War ... and it would not matter if the west thought it was only bluffing.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Depends without other moves, and without making to many demands and keeping it to the western edge would be a sign that no escalation is wanted. Putin grew up on this stuff, he knows how the game was played.


----------



## George Wallace

Colin P said:
			
		

>



Ah!  Check Point Charlie.   So famous.  Such a disappointment to actually see it.  The Wall and amount of Security 'Guards' on the East German side was impressive though.

Sorry for the sidetrack.


----------



## CougarKing

George Wallace said:
			
		

> Ah!  Check Point Charlie.   So famous.  Such a disappointment to actually see it.  The Wall and amount of Security 'Guards' on the East German side was impressive though.
> 
> Sorry for the sidetrack.



Are those US M103 or M48 tanks in the picture? Not sure what the Berlin brigade had...


----------



## George Wallace

Looks like M48's facing off T-54s.


----------



## a_majoor

Slight sidestep here: Ukrainians demonstrate how to treat politicians who are not "up to par":

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/frustrated-over-lack-of-justice-ukrainians-throw-officials-to-trash-video-366120.html

I think *we* could learn a thing or two from them...... :nod:


----------



## vonGarvin

Thucydides said:
			
		

> I think *we* could learn a thing or two from them...... :nod:


Although the thought of tossing rubbish into the trash is rather appealing, I'm not certain if our brand of democracy is ready to be replaced by Maidan Thuggery.


----------



## CougarKing

The ceasefire is strained by new violence:

Reuters



> *Seven Ukrainian soldiers killed in rebel attack, straining ceasefire*
> BY NATALIA ZINETS
> KIEV Mon Sep 29, 2014 1:21pm EDT
> 
> (Reuters) - Seven Ukrainian soldiers were killed when separatist shelling hit their armoured vehicle near Donetsk airport in eastern Ukraine, a military spokesman said on Monday, putting a fragile ceasefire under further strain.
> 
> It was the largest loss of life among Ukrainian soldiers in a single incident since the ceasefire came into force on Sept. 5 and cast a shadow over President Petro Poroshenko's upbeat assertion last week that the worst of the war against the separatists was over.
> 
> Military spokesman Andriy Lysenko said tank fire from the separatists struck a large armoured carrier on Sunday night during rebel attempts to storm Donetsk international airport, which is held by government forces
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Been a while, so here's the latest maps, UKR and separatist, both in English.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest maps (both in English), with a couple of tidbits ....

Army, National Guard, Interior cops/troops and Border Guards getting ready for winter - more here, here, here, here and here (all in Ukrainian).
Looks like Russia's Ministry of Defence may be interested in declaring October 7th "Little Green Men" day in honour of those "people in the military outfit unmarked that provide security and order during the referendum in the Crimea" (in Russian).


----------



## Kirkhill

http://army.ca/forums/threads/111881/post-1324947.html#msg1324947

If you compare the maps above with the target list described in my August 29 post it would appear that the campaign plan has not changed.

Where are the clashes?



> The first target, the “Voyennoye obozreniye” article says, is Mariupol, where Ukrainian forces have concentrated themselves and from which they must be dislodged so that the insurgents can continue to be supplied by Russia.
> 
> *Mariupol is quiet but under threat*
> 
> The second, it continues, is Volnovakha, again a site where Ukrainian forces are concentrated and one that represents a potential “place des armes for cutting off the Azov group of forces from the main ones.
> 
> *Volnovakha is the focus of a continuing drive*
> 
> The third is Donetsk and especially the airport there which currently is in Ukrainian hands. “The enemy must be driven out of well-fortified places where it has already been sitting for two to three months,” the Moscow publication says.
> 
> *The Donetsk airport is particularly subject to attacks*
> 
> The fourth target is Debaltsevo which must be taken by a flanking operation in order to destroy “the lion’s share” of Ukrainian artillery and thus defeat the Ukrainian forces in the region as a whole.
> 
> *Debaltsevo is regularly shown as being boxed in by artillery fire and clashes*
> 
> The fifth is the Lisichansk-Rubezhnoye-Severodonetsk area, a naturally defendable position which the Moscow journal says Ukrainian forces have been fortifying in the course of recent weeks and from which they must be driven.
> 
> *Activity continues south of this line*
> 
> The sixth is Luhansk and the areas around it to relieve pressure on the insurgents there.  And the seventh and perhaps most important are efforts to prevent Ukraine from bringing reserves into play by mobilizing the population. The journal implied that military attacks must be coordinated with the requirements of information war in this regard.
> 
> *Luhansk is virtually a dead letter as far as Ukraine is concerned*



The cease fire seems not to have changed the plan.  It might only have changed the pace and forced the Ukrainians on the back foot.


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> http://army.ca/forums/threads/111881/post-1324947.html#msg1324947
> 
> If you compare the maps above with the target list described in my August 29 post it would appear that the campaign plan has not changed.
> 
> Where are the clashes?
> 
> The cease fire seems not to have changed the plan.  It might only have changed the pace and forced the Ukrainians on the back foot.



I agree, though I think since the pace is slower it gives time for the Ukrainian government to hopefully move quickly to secure arms deals with countries like Poland, and restock, retrain (with the help of foreign partners) and once ready go on the offensive.


----------



## CougarKing

The Battle for Donetsk airport continues:

Reuters



> *Ukraine says its forces killed 12 rebels at Donetsk airport*
> KIEV Sat Oct 4, 2014 9:01am EDT
> 
> (Reuters) - Pro-Russian separatists have suffered their worst casualties since a ceasefire officially began on Sept.5, losing 12 men in attacks on buildings at Donetsk airport, Ukrainian military officials said on Saturday.
> 
> The ceasefire in eastern Ukraine has become increasingly frayed in recent days, leading to the death of a number of civilians and soldiers as well as a Red Cross worker in the rebel stronghold of Donetsk.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## The Bread Guy

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> The Battle for Donetsk airport continues:
> 
> Reuters


But the Russian media says different ....


> Self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) upholds the agreements on ceasefire adopted in the Belarusian capital Minsk, the press department of the DPR Defence Ministry told Itar-Tass on Saturday.
> 
> “DPR keeps up to the ceasefire and other agreements,” the defence ministry said. “However, Ukrainian military have violated the ceasefire for so many times that we failed to register all the cases.” ....


Meanwhile, BAAAAD Russian soldier - this from the OSCE mission in Ukraine:


> .... Upon arriving at the “Joint Coordination Center for Ceasefire Monitoring” in Soledar, the SMM noticed that one military officer from the Russian Federation was wearing an OSCE patch on his uniform as well as carrying an ID card with the OSCE logo. The SMM  made the necessary demarches in response to this unauthorized use of OSCE insignia ....


----------



## Kirkhill

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> But the Russian media says different ....Meanwhile, BAAAAD Russian soldier - this from the OSCE mission in Ukraine:



Russian engaging in subterfuge?  Say it ain't so.  Who does he think he works for?  The GRU?


----------



## CougarKing

Despite the truce, the battle rages on in Donetsk...

Reuters



> *Truce bypasses Donetsk airport, symbol of conflict in eastern Ukraine*
> Mon Oct 6, 2014 10:45am EDT
> 
> By Gabriela Baczynska
> 
> DONETSK Ukraine (Reuters) - While fighting in much of eastern Ukraine has been calmed by a month-old truce, it rages unabated at the airport near Donetsk, turning a shiny symbol of the country's Western integration into a shattered mirror of its future prospects.
> 
> The new terminal European soccer fans used in 2012 to reach some of the matches hosted by Ukraine is now a pitted hulk, a strategic target for the pro-Western Kiev government and the rebels pulling the ex-Soviet republic back into Moscow's orbit.
> 
> The airport sits some 10 km (six miles) from the city center. *For the Ukrainian military, which wrested it from the rebels in fierce fighting in late May, it is their closest position to Donetsk, an industrial hub and separatist stronghold where the rebels declared a "people's republic" in April.*
> 
> The separatists fear Kiev troops may use the compound as a way into Donetsk. "The airport is practically inside the city limits," Eduard Basulin, a deputy defense minister in the "Donetsk People's Republic" (DNR), told Reuters.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Interesting analysis from the CDR Salamander blog:


> For those who had so much hope in the progress made over the summer in Ukraine, as fall shows up, the situation has not continued to move in our direction.
> 
> When the pro-Russian amateurs were getting their a55 handed to them, the Russians stepped up their game as this was no time for defeat. You have to give them credit; this slow roll hybrid war is working for them.
> 
> Not so much a blitzkrieg, but a kreepkrieg.
> 
> Just look at the map on the right; the professionals are taking over and getting results.
> 
> The pro-Russian forces have solidified their lines to a more defensible and logistically efficient arrangement. They have expanded their areas of control and access to a variety of supply lines. For the Ukrainians, mostly alone in this struggle, they are facing a very rough next nine months.
> 
> Why nine months? Simple; winter is coming. Winter does not play games in Ukraine and Russia.
> 
> Normally, one thinks of the impact of the cold on armies. The last to feel its fury was the Germans - a good account can be found here and here.
> 
> That would be a good topic for discussion if this were a conventional conflict, but this isn't. No, this is something else.
> 
> Once Winter comes and the cold hits - we will see how accurate the Russian Center of Gravity analysis has been. The Ukrainian Strategic Center of Gravity (COG) is the support of the Ukrainian people for their government. A government's primary role is to support the people. Hunger and cold are very real and personal. If those in areas under pro-Russian control are warm and fed, while free-Ukraine is cold and hungry - spring could have a very different look.
> 
> One would think that the West - especially NATO nations - would see this and would do all they can to not weaken the Ukrainian COG.
> 
> (....)
> 
> As fall comes, watch the weather. Watch the reports of access to and price of natural gas to free-Ukraine. Watch who in NATO helps, and who demurs.
> 
> Oh, and watch the money. Always watch the money.


----------



## The Bread Guy

I know that "anecdote" is not the singular of "data," but this sums up a whole lot about why the UKR military still appears to be sub-par:


> This summer I received an official letter informing me that I had been called up for service in the Ukrainian Army, and that in a few weeks I would be deployed to the east, where our soldiers are fighting Russian-backed separatists.
> 
> I care deeply about my country and I want to defend it. But I was facing a dilemma: Should I go to war knowing that I will have to pay more than $2,000 out of my own pocket to get the military equipment that could save my life because official corruption has left the Ministry of Defense without enough adequate supplies to issue to new recruits? Or should I pay a $2,000 bribe to obtain papers falsely testifying that I am medically unfit and should thus be taken off the conscript list?
> 
> I’ve always been deeply opposed to corruption, a major problem in my country, not least for our soldiers fighting the insurgency. My brother, who is serving in the east, wasn’t issued anything but an old-fashioned AK-47 when he joined the army. My family, like too many others, had to spend their own money to buy what he needed: We found a secondhand NATO uniform, body armor, a helmet, a gun sight for his weapon, and kneepads and boots, all for roughly $2,400, including winter gear.
> 
> We were fortunate to have the money. The median monthly salary in Ukraine is about $260, which means that it’s impossible for the average family to equip their sons and brothers for war. The salary of a conscripted soldier varies from $185 to $417, depending on rank and specialty.
> 
> ( .... )
> 
> As of now, the fighting in the east has quieted down and I may not have to be deployed after all. In any case, if it flares up again and it turns out that I am called to service, I have decided not to bribe my way out of the army. After all, I am 33 years old, and fit and able to serve. But if I am called to fight for my country, I want to be properly equipped to be able to defend myself. If I put my life on the line, I want to know that my government is committed to giving me the best protection it can afford. At this moment, I cannot be so sure. And I fear for my brother, who is still at the front.
> 
> _Aleksandr Lapko is a senior specialist-assistant in the NATO Liaison Office in Ukraine._


----------



## Kirkhill

A call from Kyiv Post for "Tougher Sanctions"



> We are heartened that more people are sensibly coming around to our way of thinking, hawkish though it may be: Ukraine is in a war instigated by Russian President Vladimir Putin; the West -- led by the United States -- should arm, train and supply Ukrainians to defend themselves.
> 
> The latest analyst to come to the right conclusion is former U.S. Defense Secretary and CIA Director Leon Panetta. He told Fox News on Oct. 7: “I would have taken some very tough positions with regards to Putin. Not just sanctions but I would have also provided military aid to the Ukrainians, resurrected the whole issue of missile defense. I would make sure that NATO was strengthened in terms of the surrounding countries, and I would have provided additional energy resources to make clear to Russia, to make clear that they alone could not blackmail these countries through energy. That’s the kind of tough position that needs to be taken if we’re going to confront Putin. When you deal with Putin, you better deal with him from strength.”
> 
> Bingo. Panetta’s right and his reasoning should silence softies in the European Union who are already trying to get the mild sanctions against Russia lifted. Thank goodness that German Chancellor Angela Merkel is against rescinding sanctions now and double thanks to Poland for moving the conversation in the right direction – to toughening sanctions.
> 
> The West’s aim in sanctions is to get Russia out of Ukraine, not to necessarily remove Putin from power, but his departure would be a welcome consequence as well. The West will only succeed, however, if it takes tougher steps. It has the power to deliver crushing measures against Russia, but has so far avoided those – such as banning Russia from the SWIFT international financial banking transfer system, working with energy-rich nations and others to drive down the price of oil and natural gas, ostracizing Russia from international events, spending more on NATO and helping countries on Russia’s borders arm themselves.
> 
> The West needs to turn up the heat on Putin, not lower it.



I agree with the article - especially in light of the comments posted by McG on the "Russia in the 21st Century" thread.

http://army.ca/forums/threads/111880/post-1331880/topicseen.html#new

And also in light of the interest Putin has been showing in Estonian, Latvian and Moldovan Russian speakers.

We don't have a problem giving  Kurds our weapons and money and training to go defend themselves from ISIL.

We do have a problem giving Ukrainians our weapons and money and training to defend themselves from Putin. 

(Note - I do not use Russia.  Putin does not equal Russia.  Currently he commands Russia.  How long will he control it?).


----------



## The Bread Guy

In a non-political vein, Russian government media outlet RIA Novosti shares photos of some of the women on both sides of the fight - enjoy!





"A Ukrainian servicewoman stands in Horlivka, September 18, 2014."





"A woman fighting for the self-proclaimed DPR, poses with her weapon in Donetsk, September 10, 2014"





"A Ukrainian servicewoman Stella, 33, poses for a picture in the village of Schastya, near the eastern Ukrainian town of Luhansk, September 26, 2014"





"A DPR female soldier at a checkpoint on the outskirts of Gorlovka"





"A woman fighting for the self-proclaimed DPR in the town of Nizhnaya Krinka, eastern Ukraine, September 23, 2014"





"Irina, nicknamed Gaika, former croupier, turned to the artillery specialist at the DPR Army, Makievka, eastern Ukraine, October 6, 2014"





"Irina, a petrol station employee, is now a member of a reconnaissance team of freedom fighters in the town of Makievka, eastern Ukraine, October 6, 2014"





"A female freedom fighter gets ready to take position near the International Airport during fighting with Ukrainian government forces in the town of Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, October 4, 2014"


----------



## CougarKing

This should have been evident months ago when some rebel units that had these tanks were obviously more than just the "Russian soldiers-turned-holiday volunteers" Putin claims they were.

Reuters



> *Exclusive: Charred tanks in Ukraine point to Russian involvement*
> 
> By Maria Tsvetkova and Aleksandar Vasovic
> 
> HORBATENKO Ukraine (Reuters) - The burnt-out remains of dozens of tanks and armored vehicles in fields near this small village bear witness to the ferocity of a battle that turned the tide of the conflict in eastern Ukraine.
> 
> Most of the tanks were used by the government forces routed in August near Horbatenko, 40 km (25 miles) southeast of the rebel stronghold of Donetsk, a defeat so demoralizing that days later Kiev agreed a ceasefire with pro-Russian separatists.
> 
> But among the debris Reuters found the blackened carcasses of what military experts have since identified as two Russian army tanks, supporting statements by Kiev and the West that the rebels were backed by troops and equipment sent by Moscow.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Thought this one was hilarious! Sitting in a bunker in camo, with a assault rifle and she's applying make-up. Love it!!


----------



## CougarKing

There seems to be a picture of formerly incarcerated, recently released former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko among the candidate election posters at the pic at the link below.

Reuters



> *Ukraine votes in poll likely to elect pro-West assembly*
> BY RICHARD BALMFORTH AND TIMOTHY HERITAGE
> 
> (Reuters) - *War-weary Ukrainians voted on Sunday in an election that is likely to install a pro-Western parliament and strengthen President Petro Poroshenko's mandate to end separatist conflict in the east*, but could fuel tension with Russia.
> 
> People wrapped up warmly on a cold, clear day to vote in the first parliamentary poll since protests in the capital Kiev last winter forced Moscow-backed leader Viktor Yanukovich to flee and ushered in a pro-Europe leadership under Poroshenko.
> 
> *In eastern regions controlled by the army, soldiers armed with automatic rifles and wearing bulletproof jackets guarded polling stations under the yellow and blue Ukrainian flag.
> 
> There was no voting in areas held by pro-Russian rebels who will underline their autonomy with a separate leadership election on Nov. 2.*
> 
> *"There was shelling all yesterday as we were preparing the voter lists,"* said Nadezhda Danilchenko, a member of the election committee at a polling station in Volnovakha, a town about 50 km (30 miles) south of Donetsk in east Ukraine.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Sporadic fighting continues...with barely a mention in international news agencies now...

Reuters



> *Six Ukraine soldiers die in eastern clashes with rebels: military*
> Sat Nov 1, 2014 10:18am EDT
> 
> IEV/DONETSK (Reuters) - Six Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the past 24 hours, a military spokesman said on Saturday, as a fragile ceasefire in the east was tested by heavy mortar fire in the separatist stronghold of Donetsk ahead of a rebel election.
> 
> The deaths follow the killing of seven Ukrainian servicemen on Thursday, as tension grows in the run-up to Sunday's election for a separatist leadership that has been denounced as illegal by Kiev and criticized as illegitimate by the West.
> 
> "In the past 24 hours our casualties included six killed and 10 wounded," spokesman Volodymyr Polyovy said at a televised briefing.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## McG

... And is the Not-Russian Army again moving to secure the bits of Donetsk that separatists have been unable to capture while make-believe organizations attempt to legitimize the elections?



> Sham observer org for Ukrainian separatist strongholds invented days before election
> MARK MACKINNON
> The Globe and Mail
> 01 Nov 2014
> 
> There will be a facsimile of an election Sunday in the Donetsk People’s Republic, which is just a faint facsimile of a state. So it’s fitting that a facsimile of an election observer organisation was invented to watch over the process.
> The Agency for Security and Cooperation in Europe, or ASCE, was unveiled Saturday evening at a bewildering press conference here in the centre of this war-battered city. The ASCE’s would-be founder - who was evicted last year from Austria’s far-right Freedom Party - changed the new organization’s name back and forth during the press conference, freely switching between calling it the “Agency” and the “Association.” He also slammed Western governments for not respecting Sunday’s vote, and called for European countries to quit the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (the better-known OSCE) and join his new group since the the OSCE had allegedly shown its political bias by refusing to deploy observers to Donetsk and Lugansk for Sunday’s vote.
> 
> But the ACSE’s frontman, Ewald Stadler, also admitted he had only been in Donetsk for “five minutes” and fumbled a question about how many monitors the new group would be able to deploy to observe the vote (though he bragged that one of his monitors was an American citizen who was the “grand-nephew of Martin Luther King.”)
> 
> The elections Sunday in the Donetsk People’s Republic and adjacent Lugansk People’s Republic were already going to be controversial, even without the advent of the ASCE to watch over them. The votes have been condemned by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and most Western governments as a stage-managed sham, though Moscow has already indicated it will recognize them.
> 
> The idea of holding elections here is as astonishing and surreal as almost everything about the Donetsk People’s Republic.
> 
> Heavy gunfire and shelling could be heard throughout the day, hours before those who haven’t joined the refugee exodus from Donetsk and Lugansk will be asked to choose directly elected prime ministers and “people’s councils.” There’s little question over who will win, with Aleksandr Zakharchneko, the main separatist leader, and his party - the Donetsk People’s Republic - being by far the most visible candidates. The incumbents are also expected to coast to victory in smaller Lugansk.
> 
> Complicating the job of any election observation mission, there’s no list of eligible voters in the territories under the separatists’ control, nor a decent estimate of how many people still live in the region.
> 
> But Dennis Pushilin, the first head of state of the DPR - and the man who proclaimed its independence following an equally controversial referendum in April - said in an interview that the elections were necessary to give legitimacy to the agenda of creating an independent state.
> 
> “We’re moving to the next step. The revolution period has already passed, and now we’re building a new state and we have a lot to do,” he said in what used to be the local Coal Ministry and is now the office of the “People’s Front of Novorossiya,” an organization dedicated to unifying the areas of Donetsk and Lugansk under separatist control. “Novorossiya,” or “New Russia,” is a Tsarist-era term frequently used by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
> 
> Saturday was a tense day in Donetsk, with heavy fighting around Donetsk’s airport, and multiple sightings of an unmarked military convoy approaching the city from the east. But Mr. Pushilin - a 33-year-old with a murky background including times as a Ponzi scheme salesman - said he believes the ceasefire agreed to in September between the Ukrainian government and the separatist leadership can hold and become something more permanent.
> 
> If the ceasefire holds, the next step will be to rebuild the war-damaged region and try and make it attractive enough to lure other Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine into joining it.
> 
> “Our main goal is to reconstruct [Donetsk and Lugansk], to build the state system to increase salaries and pensions, and improve our industries. We need to make Novorossiya attractive to other residents of the former Ukraine,” he said.
> 
> “I think after several years Europe will realize that we are not separatists, that we are integrating into the greater Russian world. Our goal is not to build a border in the west, but to break down the border in the east.”


----------



## The Bread Guy

MCG said:
			
		

> ... And is the Not-Russian Army again moving to secure the bits of Donetsk that separatists have been unable to capture while make-believe organizations attempt to legitimize the elections?


And close enough to "OSCE" to fool folks not reading closely enough - nice.


----------



## CougarKing

More of Putin's "volunteer" troops on "holiday" in Eastern Ukraine:  :

Military.com



> *NATO: 300 Russian Troops in Eastern Ukraine Train Rebels*
> 
> Nov 03, 2014 | by Richard Sisk
> 
> Russia maintains about 250-300 troops in eastern Ukraine to train, advise and equip rebel forces who guarded elections over the weekend to solidify their separation from the central government in Kiev, Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove said Monday.
> 
> Russia also moved mechanized units closer to the border over the weekend to "make sure that the elections went according to the separatist plans," Breedlove, the commander of NATO and the U.S. European Command, said at a Pentagon news conference.
> 
> Breedlove disputed published reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin had inserted as many as 4,000 troops into eastern Ukraine as part of his "hybrid warfare" campaign to carve out a second Russian-speaking enclave from Ukraine following the takeover in Crimea.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Perhaps such a stalemate would only serve Russia by using "Novorossiya" (the Eastern Ukraine rebel positions) as a buffer against what Putin sees as NATO/EU expansion?

Reuters



> *Ukraine peace plan in tatters, 'frozen conflict' takes shape*
> 
> By Richard Balmforth and Thomas Grove
> 
> KIEV/DONETSK Ukraine (Reuters) - Kiev said on Wednesday it would halt payment of state funds in areas controlled by pro-Moscow rebels, as both sides hardened positions in what is rapidly becoming a "frozen conflict": a long-term stalemate that the West believes is Russia's aim.
> 
> A day after the rebels held inauguration ceremonies for their leaders, the separatists and the central government each accused each other of violating a September peace deal and signaled they would withdraw support for some of its terms.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## a_majoor

As a land buffer it is laughable, but as a means of distracting the government of Ukraine and applying leverage, influencing Russian speakers around the periphery of Russia and keeping the West paralyzed it is invaluable.

The downside to Russia is it is a drain on resources, has a huge negative impact on trade and internatinal relations (affecting Russia's economy) and drives Russia into China's orbit, which is probably not in Russia's long term interests (and as I understand the concept of the Eurasian Movement, this is not thier ultimate goal).


----------



## a_majoor

This could go in a lot of different threads (Europe, Grand Strategy for the United States, Russia in the 21rst Century), but since this is the nexus:

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2014/11/07/While-Americans-Mull-Over-Election-Others-Prepare-War



> *Putin and Europe Are Still Preparing for War*
> Political "doublespeak" includes the word “ceasefire.”
> 
> Putin and his rebels have ignored the agreement, killing hundreds.
> Russia’s aggression extends beyond Ukraine, and NATO knows it.
> 
> Donetsk fighting resumes after teenage deaths
> BY ANDREW L. PEEK,
> The Fiscal Times
> November 7, 2014
> 
> In his Wednesday press conference in Louisville, the newly elected Senate Majority Mitch McConnell sounded upbeat about the legislative agenda after the Republicans’ election night wins. He mentioned progress on trade, tax reform, and forcing a vote at last on the Keystone XL pipeline, which has been hanging fire for the better part of a decade. But “the first thing I need to do,” he said, “is get the Senate back to normal, and that means working more.”
> 
> Far to the east, the newly elected speaker of the Ukrainian rebel regions’ parliament also sounded optimistic about the upcoming legislative session.  “I am certain that we must close the circle,” said Oleg Tsarov. “The civil war that started in Odessa must end in Odessa, as well.” That’s Odessa, Crimea, or Odessa, Russia, depending on how permanent you believe Russia’s annexation of Crimea to be.  But it’s certainly not Odessa, Ukraine, which is what it was in February.
> 
> Related: Ukraine’s Election Poses Big Questions for the U.S.
> 
> Doublespeak is endemic to politics, pleasant fictions and meaningless words of a game where so much is for show. There’s some in the American system, where McConnell, for instance, might not actually be that optimistic about getting legislation passed. There’s much more in the separatist’s system. Oleg Tsarov is not “elected,” nor a “Speaker,” and certainly not in a “parliament,” in the Westminster sense of political representatives who make laws.  But that’s how he styles himself and a “speaker” he will likely remain.
> 
> Perhaps the most doublespeak word is “ceasefire,” as in the September 5th Minsk-agreed ceasefire between Ukrainian rebels and Ukrainians and Russians.  According to the Minsk protocol, any vote in the rebel areas had to be conducted under the auspices of the Ukrainian government and in any case couldn’t happen before December 7th.  Western European leaders like David Cameron have thus called the elections illegal, and urged Putin to condemn them.
> 
> Unfortunately, Putin doesn’t really care, and neither do his rebels. Still, it’s nice that somebody still believes in the Minsk agreement, because the antagonists themselves mostly do not. Since the Sept 5th ceasefire, hundreds of people have been killed in random shelling, assaults, and the anonymous violence of civil wars. Ukrainian forces holding the Donetsk airport are still under siege by rebels, and the Ukrainian president Poroshenko has ordered reinforcements to the front.
> 
> The deteriorating situation in Ukraine might deserve its low profile if it was just violence in Ukraine. But it’s not. It’s symptomatic of renewed Russian pressure all along the frontier with Europe. Days after the cease-fire came into force (again, escaping doublespeak is impossible), Russian forces abducted an Estonian security service officer and spirited him away in a car into Russia. It’s not clear if he’s back.  A mystery submarine was near Stockholm, and on October 28thNATO fighters from several countries scrambled to intercept four groups of Russian aircraft conducting potential nuclear drills along the alliance’s periphery.
> 
> Related: Ukraine Crisis Deepens After Rebel Vote in East
> 
> The objective of this pressure is ostensibly to split NATO.  In the short run, according to Tsarov, the Russians and their rebels seem to be aiming at capturing enough of Ukraine’s coastline to create a land bridge to the Crimean peninsula, which is now accessible to them only by water.  But over the long run, Russia’s intent is to force the states along NATO’s periphery to react strongly; to react as if, per John Kerry, there is a 19th century threat.
> 
> They will; and that reaction will be profoundly unsettling for many Western European nations, which make up the bulk of traditional NATO and often have the unfortunate diplomatic tic of acting puzzled by aggression, like somebody who violated the seating chart at dinner.  After the rebels’ November 2 elections, for example, the German government responded that the vote was unlawful because it was not in compliance with the Minsk agreement, Ukrainian law or the Ukrainian constitution.  Angela Merkel’s office said it could not understand how Russia could consider recognizing the elections.
> 
> Related: Ukraine Peace Plan in Tatters
> 
> But the periphery states understand. States like Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Finland, and Sweden have to understand that the doubletalk is newspeak--that it’s almost meaningless, and they have to take the Russian threat seriously. Poland has responded to the ceasefire by realigning its entire force structure east, to fight the Russians in case of invasion.  Both Sweden and Finland are examining ways to deepen cooperation with NATO, and Moldova is edging towards changing its traditionally neutralist stance.
> 
> In one form or another, these states are preparing for war.  Eventually, one or many – but most likely the Poles – are going to push back against Russian aggression in Ukraine, either surreptitiously with “volunteers” or overtly with some sort of joint units. And then there will be a crisis, because some NATO states will be in a war and others will back them up.
> 
> So despite the doublespeak, despite the conferences, despite the de-escalatory frameworks and timetables, NATO is heading towards a crisis that could remake the face of Western security. The Senate Republicans might pass some landmark legislation over next few years, and even confirm a judge or two, but America will be shaped more by Sunday’s elections in Luhansk and Donetsk than Tuesday’s in Boulder and Louisville.
> 
> - See more at: http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2014/11/07/While-Americans-Mull-Over-Election-Others-Prepare-War#sthash.oBds4Tco.dpuf


----------



## vonGarvin

Aren't *we* in China's orbit? :/


----------



## The Bread Guy

And now, for a bit of distraction from the bang-bang aspects of the fight, here's some pin-up's from the Ukrainian side:


----------



## McG

> *Ukraine shelling heaviest in a month despite ceasefire*
> Standoff with Russian-backed separatists in Donetsk area has intensified in past week
> CBC News
> 09 Nov 2014
> 
> East Ukraine's rebel stronghold Donetsk was pummelled on Sunday by the heaviest shelling in a month, and the OSCE said it spotted an armoured column of troops without insignia in rebel territory that Kyiv said proved Moscow had sent reinforcements.
> 
> A two-month-old ceasefire to end a war that has killed 4,000 people has appeared shakier than ever in the past few days, with both sides accusing the other of having violated the terms of the peace plan.
> 
> Reuters journalists inside Donetsk, who have been there throughout the fighting, said the shelling sounded more intense than at any time since early October, a period when a playground was struck killing at least 10 people. Sunday's strikes appeared to come from territory held by both government and rebel forces.
> 
> Ukraine's military said its standoff with the Russian-backed separatists in the east had intensified in the past week, which saw the rebels swear in new leaders after elections the government says violated the terms of the truce pact.
> 
> *Ukraine has accused Russia of sending a column of 32 tanks and truckloads of troops into the country's east* to support the pro-Russian rebels in recent days. Moscow has long denied its troops operate in east Ukraine, although many have died there.
> 
> The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which includes Russia and Ukraine as well as the United States and NATO countries, operates in East Ukraine with the blessing of all sides and is widely seen as neutral.
> 
> Its statement that it spotted an unidentified armoured column in rebel territory helps support Kiev's position that Moscow has been sending in reinforcements to protect separatist enclaves the Kremlin now refers to as "New Russia."
> 
> In one 40-vehicle convoy, "*19 were large trucks — Kamaz type, covered, and without markings or number plates — each towing a 122-mm howitzer and containing personnel in dark green uniforms without insignia*," the watchdog said in statement.
> 
> Ukraine said it had no doubt the new troops were Russians.
> 
> "Although the OSCE did not specify to whom the equipment and soldiers belonged, the Ukrainian military has no doubt of their identity," said military spokesman Andriy Lysenko.
> 
> "The past week was characterized by an increase in the intensity of shelling and the transfer of additional force: ammunition, equipment and personnel, to terrorist groups," Lysenko said.
> 
> Reuters reporters in rebel-held Donetsk said intense shelling by heavy artillery continued throughout the night and into the early hours, and then picked up again later on Sunday morning. The shelling could be heard in the centre of the city, which had a pre-conflict population of more than 1 million.
> 
> Large clouds of black smoke could be seen over the ruins of the airport, which is still under government control but which the separatists are seeking to seize.
> 
> There were no immediate reports of new civilian casualties. Lysenko said three Ukrainian soldiers had been killed in the past 24 hours and a further 13 injured.
> 
> OSCE Chairman Didier Burkhalter said on Saturday he was "very concerned about a resurgence of violence in the eastern regions of Ukraine and about activities leading to more fragility instead of further stabilization of the situation."
> 
> ...


http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-shelling-heaviest-in-a-month-despite-ceasefire-1.2829183


----------



## Kirkhill

MCG said:
			
		

> http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-shelling-heaviest-in-a-month-despite-ceasefire-1.2829183



Think I'm detecting a pattern.  Kyiv starts getting the upper hand. Russian tanks get lost and rumble over the border. 



> Kyiv Says 200 Rebels Killed, Russian Tanks, Troops Cross Over Border
> 
> By RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service
> Last updated (GMT/UTC): 07.11.2014 14:16
> 
> Ukrainian authorities say artillery fired by government forces has killed up to 200 pro-Russian separatists in the country's east amid reports of Russian tanks and soldiers crossing the border.
> 
> The number of insurgent casualties is much higher than most previous tolls reported for a single day of fighting in the conflict, which has killed more than 4,000 combatants and civilians since April, and could not be independently confirmed.
> 
> The press center of Kyiv's "Antiterrorist Operation" (ATO) said on its Facebook page on November 7 that "militants who were firing at Ukrainian military positions on the grounds of Donetsk airport on November 6 were eliminated by artillery units of the ATO forces."
> 
> It said "verified information" indicates the artillery fire "killed up to 200 militants" and destroyed or damaged four tanks and several other pieces of military equipment.
> 
> The Donetsk airport, which is mostly held by government forces, has been a focus of persistent fighting despite a September 5 cease-fire.
> 
> The fighting at the airport comes amid a report by a Ukrainian military spokesman that 32 tanks, other heavy weapons, and soldiers entered the eastern Ukrainian region of Luhansk from Russia on November 6.
> 
> Andriy Lysenko said that along with the tanks, 16 howitzer artillery systems and 30 trucks carrying ammunition and troops had also entered Ukraine.
> 
> He said another column of trucks and three mobile radar stations had crossed from Russia into Ukraine at a nearby border point.
> 
> Lysenko added that five Ukrainian soldiers had been killed and at least 16 other troops wounded in fighting in the past 24 hours.
> 
> Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said on November 7 that he told Germany's Angela Merkel via phone that the separatist conflict in eastern Ukraine was escalating due to "significant" violations of the September 5 cease-fire deal.
> 
> In Moscow, a senior Kremlin aide reiterated Russia's "respect" for elections held on November 2 by pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine but said Moscow has deliberately stopped short of saying it "recognizes" the votes.
> 
> Yury Ushakov, President Vladimir Putin's foreign policy aide, told reporters on November 7 that Russia set out its position in a Foreign Ministry statement on November 3 that said it "respects the will" of residents who voted in the elections, which were condemned as illegitimate by Ukraine and the West.
> 
> Asked whether respecting the elections is the same as recognizing the elections, Ushakov said it was not.
> 
> "These are different words," he said. "The word 'respect' was chosen deliberately. We fundamentally respect the voters' expression of will."
> 
> Ushakov said Russia remains committed to a September 5 cease-fire in eastern Ukraine and wants further talks to be held to build on some peace moves.
> 
> Ushakov said there is no specific plan for a meeting between Putin and U.S. President Barack Obama during upcoming summits in Asia, but that they would have good opportunities to meet "on their feet."
> 
> With reporting by Interfax, AFP, TASS, and Reuters


----------



## Cdn Blackshirt

Yep.  It appears Putin has no intention of losing his Novorussian territories, regardless of if they reside within the internationally recognized sovereign borders of Ukraine, or not.

Definitely not a trustworthy partner on any stage....


M.


----------



## a_majoor

It might be interesting to see how much he and the Russians enjoy the Novorussian territories when all these Novorussians start demanding pensions, medical care, economic development, jobs etc...

And Ukraine and the West washes their hands of handing over any money, economic development or even infrastructure building in "novorussia".


----------



## vonGarvin

Thucydides said:
			
		

> It might be interesting to see how much he and the Russians enjoy the Novorussian territories when all these Novorussians start demanding pensions, medical care, economic development, jobs etc...



You still think of Russians in terms of The Western Man.  (tm)   

They don't think like us, and they don't have the same motivations.  They aren't trying to fight their way into Russia or its sphere for materialistic reasons; they are fighting for more ascetic reasons.

I say let them fight.  And burn.  Both sides.


----------



## Kirkhill

General Disorder said:
			
		

> You still think of Russians in terms of The Western Man.  (tm)
> 
> They don't think like us, and they don't have the same motivations.  They aren't trying to fight their way into Russia or its sphere for materialistic reasons; they are fighting for more ascetic reasons.
> 
> I say let them fight.  And burn.  Both sides.



If only we could be sure it would stay local.....


----------



## The Bread Guy

From the _Globe & Mail_:


> Stephen Harper told Russian President Vladimir Putin flatly that he needs "to get out of Ukraine," when the two met at a Group of 20 summit of major economies in Brisbane.
> 
> A spokesman for the Canadian Prime Minister relayed the details of the encounter and, according to director of communications Jason MacDonald, "Mr. Putin did not respond positively."
> 
> (....)
> 
> Mr. Harper's encounter with Mr. Putin came Saturday morning when the Canadian Prime Minister was speaking to a group of leaders.
> 
> The Russian Leader stuck out his hand.
> 
> Mr. Harper accepted the gesture but said to the Russian Leader: "I guess I'll shake your hand but I have only one thing to say to you, you need to get out of Ukraine."‎ ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

AFV recognition, brought to you by the British Foreign Office via Twitter:


----------



## The Bread Guy

A fairly detailed (but still one-sided) account of how separatist military boss/Russian int guy Igor Strelkov (aka Igor Girkin) says he "pulled the trigger" to get things rolling in eastern Ukraine - this, from Ukrainian media ....


> Girkin says he and his special ops team started conflict in Donbas
> 
> Igor Girkin, the one-time “defense minister” of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, has said that he and his squad of Russian special services soldiers started the war in east Ukraine.
> 
> He made the claim in an interview published on Thursday in the Russian right-wing newspaper Zavtra.
> 
> "It was me who pulled the trigger of war,” Girkin said.
> 
> “If our squad had not crossed the border, everything would have come to an end, like in Kharkiv, like in Odesa,” Girkin said, referring to failed attempts earlier in the year to overthrow the local authorities in these cities.
> 
> “There would have been a few dozen killed, burnt, arrested - and that would have been it. But this flywheel war, which is still going on, was started by our group," he said.
> 
> He also said that he was not from the military, but from the "secret services," and confirmed that Russian regular army units are involved in the war ....


.... and this from Zavtra in Russian (Google English version here)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Remember this from the summer?  _*"Canada to donate 24 CF-18 fighters to Ukraine"*_

Here's apparently why they didn't take them, shared under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act (R.S.C., 1985, c. C-42) ....


> Maintenance costs and the lack of trained pilots made Ukrainian government refuse to receive up to 20 fighter-bombers F-18, former Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Leonid Polyakov who is a consultant of Ukrainian parliamentary committee for national security and defence told TV channel 24.
> 
> This was reported in the summer of 2014 that as part of modernisation of its Air Force Canadian government might hand over gratis up to 20 fighter jets F-18 decommissioned earlier in the country.
> 
> Kiev denied Canada’s offer for several reasons, Polyakov said.
> 
> “First of all, these are financial reasons, because each pilot is served by several thousand special staff providing for his flight,” he said.
> 
> Meanwhile, piloting of this warplane would require advanced training courses for pilots, because most of them had been training to steer Soviet warplanes before this, he said.


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Remember this from the summer?  _*"Canada to donate 24 CF-18 fighters to Ukraine"*_


The Canadian Embassy in Kiev apparently straightened someone out on this one - this from the UKR media:


> Canada has never offered to supply Ukraine with F-18 fighter jets, Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs Anton Herashchenko has said in a post on his Facebook page, with reference to the Canadian Embassy.
> 
> "I’ve got a response from the Canadian embassy about the ill-fated F-18 fighters. Canada has never offered to supply Ukraine with F-18 fighter jets. Perhaps, some brokers were offering something - it was not clear. At the state level, this question has never arisen," Herashchenko said ....


----------



## KerryBlue

http://news.yahoo.com/canada-dress-ukrainian-soldiers-winter-warfare-225948403.html



> Canada to dress Ukrainian soldiers for winter warfare
> 
> Ottawa (AFP) - Canada's Defense Minister Rob Nicholson announced Wednesday the sending of winter coats, boots and gloves to dress 30,000 Ukrainian soldiers fighting pro-Moscow separatists in east Ukraine



We can find 30,000 uniforms to send to Ukraine but can't equip our own troops with mukluks and the likes? Am I missing something here?


----------



## Kirkhill

KerryBlue said:
			
		

> http://news.yahoo.com/canada-dress-ukrainian-soldiers-winter-warfare-225948403.html
> 
> 
> We can find 30,000 uniforms to send to Ukraine but can't equip our own troops with mukluks and the likes? Am I missing something here?



KerryBlue, I'm willing to bet the difference is that one is handled in the same manner as humanitarian relief (buy what you can, where you can and deliver it as quickly as possible) while the other gets mired in decision making with no sense of urgency beyond that urgency born of desperation to preserve phoney baloney management jobs.

Pace Mel Brooks.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> KerryBlue, I'm willing to bet the difference is that one is handled in the same manner as humanitarian relief (buy what you can, where you can and deliver it as quickly as possible) while the other gets mired in decision making with no sense of urgency beyond that urgency born of desperation to preserve phoney baloney management jobs.
> 
> Pace Mel Brooks.


Here's how the Info-machine messages it ....


> .... The donation from National Defence, *deemed surplus by the Canadian Armed Forces*, includes approximately 30 000 coats, 30 000 pairs of pants, 70 000 pairs of Gore-Tex boots and 4 500 pairs of gloves.
> 
> The first shipment will be transported via Royal Canadian Air Force CC177 Globemaster and is scheduled to arrive by the end of November. The remainder of the equipment will be transported by a separate sealift.
> 
> This donation is in addition to the $5 million in non-lethal military equipment the Government of Canada has previously donated to the country and is expected to enhance capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces ....


That bit in orange?  Standby for the photo opportunity ....


----------



## Flavus101

Really, we have 70k goretex boots to spare? I've been told repeatedly that the system is all out and I have to wait until the new boots come in.


----------



## Kirkhill

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Here's how the Info-machine messages it ....That bit in orange?  Standby for the photo opportunity ....



Withdrawing left foot from mouth (without boots or mukkies).   Standing by to insert right foot on my own time. 

On the other hand, maybe the Ukrainians are all clustered in those sizes that were surplus.  Are the combative Ukrainians particularly bigger or smaller than combative Canadians?


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Flavus101 said:
			
		

> Really, we have 70k goretex boots to spare? I've been told repeatedly that the system is all out and I have to wait until the new boots come in.



Not shocked by this.  A few years ago I spent almost six months down in Jamaica, I ran into some Jamaican Special Ops soldiers who were all outfitted with the latest SWAT boots, paid for by the Government of Canada through MTAP.  Meanwhile I haven't had a pair of issued boots in almost 5 years and any time I try and get a pair they don't have my size and the wait list is a couple of months.  I buy my own boots now and have for the past few years.

Boots weren't the only things they had either, brand new harris radios, latest fighting rigs, etc... etc...

Meanwhile we are stuck using 522's that don't work and going to battle with what is essentially a fishing vest  ;D

EDIT:

Don't get me wrong, MTAP is a real good program and we are doing good work by providing training and equipment to some of our key partners but it stings a little when you see that they have better gear in some cases then we do and we paid for it.  But hey, better them having to fight the drug war then us, right?


----------



## The Bread Guy

This from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe:


> .... On 29 November, in Luhansk, the SMM was present at a meeting of the head of the Ukrainian contingent to the Joint Centre for Control and Co-ordination (JCCC), Lt Gen Askarov; the head of the Russian Representation in south-east Ukraine, Lt Gen Lentsov; and members of the “LPR”. Participants continued to dispute aspects of the disengagement phase of the Generals’ plan of 13 November. (See SMM Daily Report of 14 November). Nonetheless, *all agreed in principle to a total ceasefire along the entire line of contact between Ukrainian Armed Forces and those under control of the “LPR”, to be effective from 5 December*. Members of the “LPR” insisted that they were in control of all Cossack units and that these units, too, would adhere to this proposal. They also agreed that the withdrawal of heavy weapons would start on 6 December ....


We'll see - attached map shows UKR info-machine's read of who's where.


----------



## The Bread Guy

> The Russian Black Sea Fleet’s Special Forces have held their first training exercises with combat dolphins since the Crimean Peninsula was reunited with Russia, a military source in Crimea told RIA Novosti on Wednesday.
> 
> “Training exercises were held with combat dolphins in the Sevastopol Oceanarium in the search of military equipment at a depth of over 60 meters. An object that looked like a mine was spotted by a dolphin and tagged with a buoy,” the source said.
> 
> After the fall of the Soviet Union the military dolphin program was passed to the Ukrainian Navy. After Crimea rejoined Russia in March 2014, the program was returned to the Russian Defense Ministry ....


sputniknews.com, 3 Dec 2014


----------



## Kirkhill

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/12/04/russia-sends-in-forces-to-liquidate-chechen-rebels-as-fierce-gun-battle-kills-at-least-19/

Perhaps Ukraine should offer to intervene as a mediator between Moscow and the freedom-loving Chechens.....

And in related news 

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/12/04/putin-defends-aggressive-foreign-policy-as-necessary-for-russias-survival-we-will-be-sovereign-or-dissolve/

Please be understanding.  Negotiation is not an option.


----------



## The Bread Guy

This from the Info-machine:


> Canada today signed a Declaration of Intent with Ukraine to explore opportunities to conduct joint military training and capacity building in response to Russia's aggression toward Ukraine.
> 
> The agreement was signed by the Honourable Rob Nicholson, P.C., Q.C., M.P. for Niagara Falls, Minister of National Defence, at the conclusion of a visit to Kyiv, Ukraine, where he affirmed Canada’s steadfast friendship and strong bilateral relations, and officially announced Canada’s intention to collaborate on current and future security concerns, and towards developing broader military defence cooperation.
> 
> Russia has violated the territorial integrity of Ukraine and continues its efforts to intimidate and undermine the democratically elected government in Kyiv. Canada will continue to play a leading role in the Western response to the situation in Ukraine as well as continue its military training and cooperation, building upon the success of current efforts contributing toward Ukraine self-determination and security ....


More detail from the Backgrounder:


> .... Canada and Ukraine are committed to continue working together to strengthen the capacity of the Ukrainian government and its security forces to defend Ukraine’s territorial integrity and its people, and to uphold and promote the institutions that serve the wellbeing of its society.  We have already achieved important successes in this regard, from years of military training and cooperation offered through Canada’s Military Training and Cooperation Program, to bilateral financial and equipment contributions, to strengthening multilateral collaboration through the Joint Commission.
> 
> We declare our intent to continue working together to explore ways in which to build upon these gains, particularly as concerns defence capacity-building through the provision of general support training such as military police, medical and personal protective measures.
> 
> Through such future cooperation we seek to contribute to the enhancement of democratic Ukrainian institutions by working shoulder to shoulder to exploit opportunities to collaborate on current and future security concerns ....


----------



## Kirkhill

"I don't want her. 
You can have her.
She's too fat for me.
She's too fat for me."



> Cash-Strapped Russia Won't Support Ukrainian Separatist Regions Of Donetsk And Luhansk
> 
> As a new ceasefire begins Tuesday between Ukraine and pro-Russia separatists in the east of the country, the Kremlin plunged the political fate of the contested regions of Donetsk and Luhansk into uncertainty. According to the left-leaning Russian daily newspaper Novaya Gazeta, which cited officials within the Kremlin, sources within the cabinet of ministers and pro-Russian insurgents, Russia has abandoned the idea of either war-torn region becoming an independent state, instead preferring that both remain autonomous regions within Ukraine.
> 
> While the reason for this change of policy within the Kremlin was not revealed in the report, it is believed that independence would push both regions to rely on Russia financially as they recover from war and begin operating as independent states, something that a financially troubled Russia is keen to avoid.
> 
> “Russia clearly doesn’t want to absorb these states into Russia itself,” said Sarah Lain, research fellow with expertise on Russia and the former USSR at the London-based Royal United Services Institute, an independent think tank on defense and security. “And I do imagine that independence would mean that it adds more pressure on Russia because those regions will be asking to be closer to Russia than Kiev."
> 
> It was thought that both regions in Eastern Ukraine would be taken under Russian control in the same way Crimea was, after a vote in September, but Russia has been subjected to crippling financial sanctions from the European Union and the U.S. since entering Crimea in February of this year and annexing it just one month later. On top of falling oil prices, that is hurting Russia financially.
> 
> This leaves both Luhansk and Donetsk in a quandary. The population that voted in both those regions chose overwhelmingly to become independent states and move away from Kiev's rule -- hoping, Lain said, that Russia would prop them up financially. In response to the move, not recognized internationally, Ukraine Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk cut off payments to the two regions totaling $2.6 billion, largely in public-sector salaries and pensions, leaving the regions and the people living there largely adrift from central government.
> 
> That quandary extends to Moscow, too. “Russia can’t afford to take on that responsibility, especially given the problems with its economy,” said Lain. “However, Russia also can’t afford to step back either, because Putin’s popularity in Russia rides on him protecting the ethnic Russians living in Ukraine.”
> 
> But finances are not the only reason Putin would rather see Donetsk and Luhansk remain as autonomous regions. Putin may also have geopolitical reasons to keep both regions locked in "frozen conflicts," whose persistence would make it almost impossible for Ukraine to join the EU and even NATO and leave Russia's sphere of influence in favor of Western affiliation.
> 
> “They [Russia] are attempting to create what’s known as a ‘frozen conflict,’ the same condition as was seen in the [2008] conflict with Georgia, which resulted in the creation of the semi-autonomous states of South Ossetia and Abkhazia,” said Emma Ashford, a Russia analyst with the Cato Institute in Washington.
> 
> The key for Russia, Lain said, is to push separatists to retain their autonomy, which “keeps the tie to the Kiev government, meaning it kind of stays Kiev’s problem."



Next move for Ukraine....Give Donbass its freedom.


----------



## Kirkhill

Burn the witches! Burn them!



> The first two documented denunciations, Radio Svoboda writes, were at the beginning of October.  One is from Iryna Filatova, so-called LPR ‘minister of culture’ though best known for rather provocative poses in a bikini.   It reads:
> 
> “Please take measures to detain and punish according to martial law Olena Krasnovska who lives at [address].  I have learned that during the early hours of Oct 14, 2014 when the Bandera-supporting junta celebrate UPA [Ukrainian Insurgence Army] Day, Krasnovska visited the local Luhansk cemetery in order to hold rituals aimed at weakening the statehood of the Luhansk people’s republic and to damage the health of its citizens. She called for example on the spirit of the commander of the banderivtsi Roman Shukhevych. According to testimony from her neighbours she is a supporter of the Kyiv junta and against LPR and Donbas. Please take measures to investigate Krasnovska’s subversive activities and assign just punishment, including execution, according to martial law”.
> 
> Radio Svoboda managed to ascertain that this elderly woman, denounced by ‘neighbours’ with whom she had lived for decades as in the worst years of the Stalinist Terror, aroused suspicion as a teacher of Ukrainian and supporter of the relatively small Donetsk EuroMaidan.



And still the comedy continues.  :'(

http://khpg.org/index.php?id=1418084920


----------



## The Bread Guy

Interesting numbers game with the winter kit Canada donated to Ukraine - our info-machine says this ....


> .... The donation from National Defence, deemed surplus by the Canadian Armed Forces, includes approximately 30 000 coats, 30 000 pairs of pants, 70 000 pairs of Gore-Tex boots and 4 500 pairs of gloves ....


.... while the Ukrainian MoD info-machine says this (via Google English from Ukrainian):


> .... In general, the connection gained more than 1,200 sets of winter form ....


Let's see who ELSE in the Ukrainian system gets Canadian winter kit.

Meanwhile, some pix from the UKR Info-machine:


----------



## Kirkhill

Russia is moving to a post-war phase in a war that never happened and wants Ukraine to assist in paying for establishing separatist states.

Now is the time for No.10(X) Commando to be reformed. If the Russo-Donbass border is porous it means that it is as easy for anti-Kremlin influences to get in as it is for anti-Kyiv tanks to get lost.

Tatars of Crimea could find their way over to Chechenya and northeast to Tatarstan as well as over the Urals to Novosibirsk (anti-Kremlin graffiti and demonstrations ) 
https://vk.com/typical_nsk?w=wall-32258596_2019070  
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/05/russia-bans-siberia-independence-march-extremism-law

I mean, little green men can come from anywhere.



> Russia Takes Breathing Pause From Military Hostilities in Ukraine
> 
> Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 11 Issue: 222December 12, 2014 05:12 PM Age: 1 day
> By: Vladimir Socor  Link
> 
> (Source: greanvillepost.com)
> Russia seems about to suspend the military phase of its multi-dimensional assault on Ukraine. The Kremlin’s “Novorossiya” project (see EDM, May 27) is shelved until further notice. Instead, Moscow is switching to what Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov has termed “a post-war phase, so to speak” (RIA Novosti, December 9).
> 
> Since December 9, the intensity level of Russian and proxy attacks on Ukrainian positions in Donbas (eastern Ukrainian area encompassing Donetsk and Luhansk provinces) has markedly subsided. On that date, a “silence regime” (informally agreed ceasefire) went into effect (Sprotyv.info, December 9–11), coordinated in the field by senior representatives of the Ukrainian and Russian general staffs. It is plausibly surmised (although no evidence has surfaced in the public domain) that the Ukrainian and Russian presidential administrations have coordinated to instruct their respective general staffs to introduce the silence regime.
> 
> According to Ukrainian General Staff estimates, Russian troops in Donbas currently total 32,000, including between 6,000 and 10,000 regular Russian Army personnel, the remainder being irregulars recruited locally and from Russia (Ukrinform, December 11). The September armistice agreements had ended full-scale hostilities, but only to mark a transition to positional warfare. The Russian side continually attacked Ukrainian positions, attempting in vain to capture logistical hubs or otherwise to shift the demarcation line (see below). If the silence regime introduced on December 9 holds, it would mark a second transition—from positional warfare to “freezing” the military conflict. This corresponds with a freeze on the diplomatic process (see accompanying article).
> 
> Moscow’s shift reflects, on one hand, a recognition that it has exhausted the opportunities for the overt use of force against Ukraine at this time. On the other hand it reflects Russia’s priority goal to consolidate the gains achieved thus far, as a basis to any further course of action against Ukraine, contingent on opportunities.
> 
> After three months of continually breaching the ceasefire, Russian and proxy forces have failed to expand beyond the ceasefire lines. Ukrainian forces have successfully defended the Donetsk airport, Debaltseve salient, and other positions under attack on the line of contact. The Ukrainians have also blocked Russian probing moves on Mariupol and the land route toward the Russian-annexed Crimea.
> 
> Winter, in any case, imposes a halt to offensive operations. Any further Russian advance would require a full-scale use of heavy conventional forces, at a prohibitive cost in terms of new Western sanctions on Russia. Falling oil and gas prices would exacerbate the impact of new sanctions in that case. Moscow must also realize that continuing military attacks can only contribute to the political consolidation of Ukraine. Halting that political consolidation, however, is Moscow’s main goal in Ukraine, potentially more rewarding to Russia than seizing additional bits of Donbas.
> 
> Before considering any follow-up actions, Russia needs a pause in order to stabilize the occupied territory. Moscow intends to turn the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (DPR, LPR) into proto-states with an institutional setup, which they currently lack. Although they staged “elections” on November 2, both “republics” are in the throes of political chaos (the “LPR” is even less institutionalized than the “DPR”). Military commanders in the field, often rivals, have carved out bailiwicks for themselves.
> 
> Russia’s military and security services have recently started cleaning up the rogue, insubordinate elements from the two “republics’ ” paramilitary forces. The Russians have removed such field commanders as Igor Bezler and Nikolai Kozitsyn and are also screening out some middle and lower ranks (while planning to replace these with new recruits). The Russian high command is undertaking to create a DPR-LPR combined force under a single command, within the Russian Armed Forces’ chain of command. That combined force is supposed to include seven infantry “brigades,” one artillery and one tank brigade, and some specialized battalions (Sprotyv.info, December 12).
> 
> Russia currently occupies less than one half of the territory of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, with more than one half of their combined population. Moscow must now provide for an estimated 3.5–4 million people there (including refugees from there on Russia’s territory). Periodic truck convoys of humanitarian aid (Russia is preparing the tenth such convoy at the moment) are only an emergency procedure. Already saddled with Crimea’s annexation costs, Moscow must find the ways and means to support the occupied territory in Donbas on a sustainable basis.
> 
> Moscow wants Ukraine to pay at least some of the costs of restoring the economy in the Russian-occupied territory. This consideration has begun to affect Moscow’s choice of words about “DPR-LPR’s” status in relation to Ukraine. Suddenly, Moscow is reminding Kyiv that Donbas is a part of Ukraine after all, and that Kyiv should restore economic links with the “republics” if it wants to maintain Ukraine’s territorial integrity (Interfax, December 6–10).
> 
> All those considerations compel Russia to suspend active military actions against Ukraine, shifting to what Lavrov now terms “a post-war phase” (relativized by Lavrov’s own “so-to-speak” codicil—see above). Russia’s massive military forces in Donbas will remain a constant source of threat to Ukraine. The Kremlin may again order some military move for demonstrative effect, if Ukraine upholds its interests firmly in the Contact Group negotiations. However, Moscow may calculate that the suspension of hostilities would strengthen the hand of those in the West who oppose supplying Ukraine with defensive weapons.
> 
> Russia will mainly rely on diplomacy, political operations, disinformation, and violent subversive activities in this new phase of its conflict against Ukraine. The overall goals are to perpetuate Russia’s gains in Donbas, undermine Ukraine politically, discourage and disrupt Western engagement with Ukraine, and exploit the country’s dysfunctionalities to the hilt. On its own timing and terms, Russia takes a breathing pause from military conflict. However, Russia will try to deprive Ukraine of the respite it needs for addressing the country’s problems effectively.


----------



## The Bread Guy

> Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, responding to a question from Interfax as to whether Crimea can be regarded as a location to place Russian nuclear weapons: "Crimea has now become part of a country that has such weapons under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons."
> 
> "And by international law, the Russian state has all grounds to dispose of its legitimate nuclear arsenal in accordance with its interests and in accordance with its international legal obligations," Lavrov said.
> 
> Lavrov said Crimea has never been a "nuclear-free zone" in the sense of international law. "It was part of Ukraine, which is a country that has no nuclear weapons," he said.
> 
> "The term 'nuclear-free zone' has never been used for Crimea. This term characterizes a specific international legal agreement. Nuclear-free zones exist in Latin America, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia," he said ....


Interfax-Ukraine, 15 Dec 14


----------



## vonGarvin

So.....nukes then?


----------



## The Bread Guy

General Disorder said:
			
		

> So.....nukes then?


Nukes if necessary, but not necessarily nukes?


----------



## The Bread Guy

From the PMO:


> Prime Minister Stephen Harper (yesterday) issued the following statement announcing additional economic sanctions and travel bans against 20 Russian and Ukrainian individuals, and new export restrictions on technologies used in Russia’s oil exploration and extractive sector:
> 
> “Since the onset of the conflict, the Putin regime has continuously violated the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine.
> 
> “Canada will not accept the illegal occupation of Crimea and persistent, provocative military activity in eastern Ukraine.  As such, we are once again announcing additional economic sanctions and travel bans against Russian and Ukrainian individuals. We are also imposing new restrictions on the export of technology used in Russia’s oil exploration and extractive sector and further defining existing debt and equity financing prohibitions.
> 
> “The sanctions we have taken to date, in close collaboration with our allies and partners, are putting real economic pressure on Russia to cease militarism in Ukrainian territory.
> 
> “Canada will stand in steadfast support of the Ukrainian people as they continue to struggle for peace and freedom against the Putin regime. We stand ready to take further proposed measures with our allies and partners if required.”



List of newly-sanctioned folk ....


> Canada is imposing additional economic sanctions and travel bans against the following Russian and Ukrainian individuals:
> 
> Russian
> 
> Leonid Ivanovich Kalashnikov, First Deputy Chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the State Duma.
> Igor Vladimirovich Lebedev, Deputy Speaker, State Duma.
> Oleg Vladimirovich Lebedev, First Deputy Chairman of the Committee on Relations with CIS Countries.
> Nikolai Vladimirovich Levichev, Deputy Speaker, State Duma.
> Ivan Ivanovich Melnikov, First Deputy Speaker, State Duma.
> Vladimir Stepanovich Nikitin, First Deputy Chairman of the Committee on Relations with CIS Countries.
> Andrei Nikolaevich Rodkin, Moscow representative of the so-called “Donetsk People’s Republic.”
> Vladimir Abdualiyevich Vasilyev, Deputy Speaker of the State Duma.
> Viktor Petrovich Vodolatsky, Chairman of the Union of the Russian and Foreign Cossack Forces, and Deputy of the State Duma.
> Yuri Leonidovich Vorobyov, Deputy Speaker of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation.
> Svetlana Sergeevna Zhurova, First Deputy Chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, State Duma.
> 
> Ukrainian
> 
> Oleh Bereza, so-called “Internal Affairs Minister” of the so-called “Donetsk People’s Republic.”
> Oleksandr Karaman, so-called “Deputy Prime Minister for Social Issues” of the so-called “Donetsk People’s Republic.”
> Volodimir Kononov (a.k.a. “Tsar”), so-called “Defence Minister” of the so-called “Donetsk People’s Republic.”
> Georgiy L’vovich Muradov, so-called “Deputy Prime Minister” of Crimea and Plenipotentiary Representative of Crimea to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
> Andriy Yurevich Pinchuk, so-called “State Security Minister” of the so-called “Donetsk People’s Republic.”
> Miroslav Vladimirovich Rudenko, a Commander of the Donbass People’s Militia.
> Mikhail Sergeyevich Sheremet, so-called “First Deputy Prime Minister” of Crimea.
> Gennadiy Nikolaiovych Tsypkalov, so-called “Prime Minister” of the so-called “Luhansk People’s Republic.”
> 
> Olexandr Zakharchenko, so-called “Prime Minister” of the so-called “Donetsk People’s Republic.”



.... and more on _"Restrictions on technologies used in Russia’s oil exploration and extractive sector"_


> .... on December 19, 2014, Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced that Canada will introduce restrictions on the export of technology in relation to Arctic, deep water and shale oil explorations and extraction to Russia. These actions complement similar measures being undertaken by the European Union and the United States.
> 
> The new Canadian export restrictions, which will be applied under Canada’s Special Economic Measures Act, prohibit the export, sale, supply or shipment of a specified list of goods to Russia, or any person in Russia, for use in the following: (a) deep water oil exploration and production; (b) Arctic oil exploration and production; or (c) shale oil exploration and production. These restrictions will also prohibit the provision to Russia, or any person in Russia, financial, technical or other services related to the prohibited goods.
> 
> The export restrictions will apply to the following items:
> 
> 1. Seamless stainless steel line pipe of a kind used for oil or gas pipelines;
> 
> 2. Seamless iron or steel line pipe of a kind used for oil or gas pipelines, other than line pipe made of stainless steel or cast iron;
> 
> 3. Seamless iron or steel drill pipe of a kind used in drilling for oil or gas, other than drill pipe made of cast iron;
> 
> 4. Seamless iron or steel tubing of a kind used in drilling for oil or gas, other than tubing made of cast iron;
> 
> 5. Iron or steel line pipe of a kind used for oil or gas pipelines that has circular cross-sections and an external diameter exceeding 406.4 mm;
> 
> 6. Iron or steel casing of a kind used in drilling for oil or gas that has circular cross-sections and an external diameter exceeding 406.4 mm;
> 
> 7. Welded iron or steel line pipe of a kind used for oil or gas pipelines that has an external diameter not exceeding 406.4 mm, other than line pipe made of cast iron;
> 
> 8. Welded casing and tubing of a kind used in drilling for oil or gas that has an external diameter not exceeding 406.4 mm and is made of flat-rolled steel or iron products, other than casing and tubing made of cast iron;
> 
> 9. Interchangeable rock-drilling or earth-boring tools that have working parts made of sintered metal carbides, cermets, diamond or agglomerated diamond;
> 
> 10. Power-driven reciprocating positive displacement pumps for liquids, other than pumps with measuring devices, concrete pumps and fuel, lubricating or cooling medium pumps for internal combustion piston engines;
> 
> 11. Power-driven rotary positive displacement pumps for liquids, other than pumps with measuring devices and fuel, lubricating or cooling medium pumps for internal combustion piston engines;
> 
> 12. Liquid elevators and their parts, other than pumps;
> 
> 13. Non-hydraulic or non-self-propelled boring or sinking machinery, and their parts, for boring earth or extracting minerals or ores, other than tunnelling machinery and hand-operated tools;
> 
> 14. Parts for lifting, handling, loading or unloading machinery;
> 
> 15. Parts for
> 
> (a) derricks, cranes, mobile lifting frames and other lifting machinery;
> 
> (b) self-propelled bulldozers, scrapers, graders, levellers, shovel loaders and tamping machines; and,
> 
> (c) other moving, grading, scraping, levelling, excavating and extracting machinery;
> 
> 16. Parts for hydraulic or self-propelled boring or sinking machinery;
> 
> 17. Mobile drilling derricks;
> 
> 18. Floating or submersible drilling or production platforms;
> 
> 19. Fire-floats, lightships and floating docks or cranes, other than dredgers.


----------



## McG

The U.S. also imposed new sanctions yesterday, as did the EU earlier in the week.  The U.S. sanctions apply to dealings with/in Crimea.  Russia claims no concern, and that it will ride out the sanctions as it has an historic right to Crimea.  

http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/russia-dismisses-new-u-s-sanctions-declares-historic-rights-to-crimea-1.2156807


----------



## a_majoor

Maybe Canada can claim a military exemption from various NAFTA and WTO rules in funding more production in the oilsands and pumping enough to flood the markets even further. Using various wartime laws and acts of Parliament could also push multiple pipelines across Canada to bring the oil to market.

this would not only hurt Russia, but also Saudi Arabia, Iran, ISIS and various other actors who are not working in our interests anyway....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Thucydides said:
			
		

> Maybe Canada can claim a military exemption from various NAFTA and WTO rules in funding more production in the oilsands and pumping enough to flood the markets even further. Using various wartime laws and acts of Parliament could also push multiple pipelines across Canada to bring the oil to market.


Pushing pipelines through places is hard enough now, so I don't think it would be any easier under "wartime laws" - especially given that we're not at war with Russia at this point.

Now, cranking open the tap on the REST of Canada's non-tar sand oil production?  No idea re:  the legal restraints, but crank 'er up!


----------



## The Bread Guy

Make of this what you will/caveat emptor - a statistical factoid shared by the UKR Info-machine, from an article on the DefMin & Chief of Defence Staff reviewing protective equipment (original in Ukrainian - Google English translation):


> .... (Chief of the General Staff and Commander-in-Chief) Colonel-General Viktor Muzhenko informed that in the area of ​​operations often antyterorestychnoyi soldiers injured limb.
> 
> .... *- According to statistics, 60% of all injuries go through limbs, 25% - head injury, 12% - chest and abdomen, 2.5% - neck injury, etc.,* - the chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and representatives of the company pointed out that in his view items in this model body armor can be removed ....


----------



## George Wallace

Perhaps those figures:


> .... *- According to statistics, 60% of all injuries go through limbs, 25% - head injury, 12% - chest and abdomen, 2.5% - neck injury, etc.,* - the chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and representatives of the company pointed out that in his view items in this model body armor can be removed ....



are the results of having body armor and the prevention of more wounds statistically to chest and abdomen, and neck.  Remove the body armor and those statistics will change with more wounds to the centers of body mass.


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Interesting numbers game with the winter kit Canada donated to Ukraine - our info-machine says this ....
> 
> 
> 
> .... The donation from National Defence, deemed surplus by the Canadian Armed Forces, includes approximately 30 000 coats, 30 000 pairs of pants, 70 000 pairs of Gore-Tex boots and 4 500 pairs of gloves ....
> 
> 
> 
> .... while the Ukrainian MoD info-machine says this (via Google English from Ukrainian):
> 
> 
> 
> .... In general, the connection gained more than 1,200 sets of winter form ....
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Let's see who ELSE in the Ukrainian system gets Canadian winter kit.
Click to expand...

More on this sort of thing, from the Kyiv Post:


> …. When in late November the Canadian government sent *3,000* sets of winter outfits for Ukrainian soldiers, it was the volunteers who met the plane at the airport and sent the clothes to the war zone.  Other volunteers received the Canadian outfits at the places of their destination, counting them on arrival and then delivering to soldiers.  “Now all the cargos will be supervised by representatives of Council of Volunteers and Ukrainian-Canadian Congress,” prominent volunteer Daviv Arakhamia, who now assists the defense ministry in procurement issues, wrote on his Facebook. “This is a personal order by prime minister of Canada, who hinted that when once again these goods disappear or in unknown way appear at the market – that would be the last help for our country.”


WTF's with the arithmetic here?  Unless they all mean "here's what's arrived so far".  We'll have to wait and see ....

Meanwhile, the International Crisis Group has prepared a report with some recommendations for all sides in the fight - I've attached a short (3 page) excerpt highlighting the events (and how Russia/its military was involved) from August through September.  The entire report makes for interesting reading, especially the bits on how Russia may have been (and continues to be) a touch more subtle than first thought with Ukraine's eastern rebels/separatists/federalists.


----------



## a_majoor

Sanctions by the West and Saudi Arabia's undeclared oil war against Iran and Russia are all having negative effects on the Russian economy. The question is how much "pain" is Putin willing to take in order to continue on his present path, and how much "pain" will the Russian elites be willing to take before they withdraw their support for Putin (I suspect their "pain" tolerance will be much lower that tat of the Russian people, since they have so much more to lose):

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/25/us-russia-crisis-rouble-idUSKBN0K30FC20141225



> R*ussia says ruble crisis over as reserves dive, inflation climbs*
> BY ELENA FABRICHNAYA AND ALEXANDER WINNING
> MOSCOW Thu Dec 25, 2014 9:22am EST
> 
> RELATED NEWS
> Russian reserves fall below $400 billion, first time since 2009
> ANALYSIS & OPINION
> Cuba’s biggest export are teachers, doctors – not revolution
> The reason oil could drop as low as $20 per barrel
> 
> (Reuters) - Russia said on Thursday its currency crisis was over even though its forex reserves have plunged and annual inflation has climbed above 10 percent, adding to the problems facing the government as it fights its worst economic crisis since 1998.
> 
> The ruble plunged to all-time lows last week on heavy falls in the price of oil, the backbone of the Russian economy, and Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis that made it near impossible for Russian firms to borrow on Western markets.
> 
> But it has since rebounded sharply after authorities took steps to halt its slide and bring down inflation, which after years of stability threatens President Vladimir Putin's reputation for ensuring the country's prosperity.
> 
> Those measures included a hike in interest rates to 17 percent from 10.5 percent, curbs on grain exports and informal capital controls.
> 
> "The key rate was raised in order to stabilize the situation on the currency market. ... That period has already, in our opinion, passed. The rouble is now strengthening," Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told the upper house of parliament on Thursday.
> 
> He added that interest rates would be lowered if the situation remained stable.
> 
> Standard & Poor's credit ratings agency said this week it could downgrade Russia to junk as soon as January due to a rapid deterioration in "monetary flexibility".
> 
> Keen to avert a downgrade, Russia said it had started talks with ratings agencies to explain the government's actions. Siluanov said the budget deficit next year would be "significantly more" than the 0.6 percent of gross domestic product originally planned.
> 
> The ruble slumped to 80 per dollar in mid-December from an average of 30-35 in the first half of 2014. It has strengthened in the last few days to trade as strong as 52 per dollar on Thursday, in part thanks to government pressure on exporters to sell hard currency.
> 
> Russians have tracked the exchange rate closely since the collapse of the Soviet Union, when hyper-inflation wiped out their savings over several years in the early 1990s. The central bank had to spend heavily in recent months to prop the currency.
> 
> Last week, Russia's gold and foreign currency reserves dropped by as much as $15.7 billion to below $400 billion for the first time since August 2009 and down from over $510 billion at the start of the year.
> 
> Analysts said around $5 billion were spent on propping up the ruble, while around $7 billion was due to foreign currency loaned to banks as part of repo operations, meaning the money will be returned to the regulator at a later stage.
> 
> INFLATION SPIKE
> 
> Russia imports large amounts of food, high-tech equipment and cars. As the ruble weakens it has to pay more for its imports, which pushes up inflation at home and in turn encourages people to protect their earnings by buying dollars, thereby adding to the pressure on the rouble.
> 
> Putin's economic aide Andrei Belousov said on Thursday that annual inflation was at 10.4 percent and could reach around 11 percent by the end of the month, surpassing the psychologically key 10 percent mark for the first time since the 2008/09 global financial crisis.
> 
> Prices for some goods, such as beef and fish, have risen 40 to 50 percent in recent months after Russia slapped an import ban on certain Western food products in retaliation for European Union and U.S. sanctions over Ukraine.
> 
> Bank officials say they saw a spike in withdrawals from ruble deposits in mid-December as Russians rushed to convert their savings into hard currencies.
> 
> The deputy head of top state lender Sberbank, Alexander Torbakhov, said this week that demand for hard currencies spiked to five times usual levels last week, when the rouble plummeted to all-time lows.
> 
> But he added that the bank had seen depositors returning in large numbers after most lenders ramped up their deposit rates, some offering as much as 20 percent in annual interest.
> 
> "We have managed to cope (with deposit withdrawals). Can the situation be repeated? Yes, it can," Torbakhov said, declining to discuss what could trigger a new flurry of withdrawals.
> 
> Analysts say that apart from oil prices, they will watch ratings agency decisions.
> 
> S&P warned this week there was at least a 50 percent chance it would cut Russia's sovereign rating below investment grade within 90 days. Moody's ratings agency warned this week that Russia's GDP could contract by 5.5 percent in 2015 and 3 percent in 2016 due to weaker oil prices and the ruble's slide.
> 
> (Writing by Dmitry Zhdannikov; Editing by Hugh Lawson)


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukraine? Russia in the 21st Century? The EU? Why Europe Keeps Failing?  Or just WTF  :facepalm:

http://www.defense-aerospace.com/article-view/release/159930/russia%27s-rosneft-signs-deal-to-buy-160-agustawestland-aw_189-helicopters.html

Italians building 160 8 tonne helicopters in Russia............. F*ck me gently.



> Rosneft, Rostec and Finmeccanica Agree on Production of AW189 Helicopters in Russia
> 
> 
> (Source; Rosneft; issued Dec 31, 2014)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Rosneft, Russia's largest offshore oil operator, has signed a deal to buy 160 AW189 helicopters which will be made in Russia by a joint venture with AgustaWestland (AW photo) Rosneft, Rostec Corporation and Italian group Finmeccanica signed trilateral agreement for strategic partnership. The document was signed by the Head of Rosneft Igor Sechin, Rostec Corporation CEO Sergey Chemezov and the Head of Finmecanica group Mauro Moretti on December 29.
> 
> As part of the signed document the parties will establish a Joint Venture (JV) of the Russian Helicopters holding and AgustaWestland (subsidiaries of Rostec and Finmeccanica). The JV will be based on the HeliVert plant situated in the Moscow Region. Rosneft will become a new partner of the Russian-Italian JV. It is planned to launch production of the medium helicopters AW189.
> 
> Rosneft will form a bid and become the first customer for the AW189 helicopters. By 2025, HeliVert is envisaged to sell and deliver up to 160 helicopters to Rosneft. In compliance with the reached agreements the assembly, supplies, aftersales service and training of AW189 helicopters will be carried out. As part of the project, localization of the AW189 production is planned to be implemented in stages up to 2025.
> 
> Commenting on the signing Rosneft Head Igor Sechin said: ”Offshore projects development is a strategic priority for Rosneft. It is impossible to accomplish this mission without state-of-the-art arctic and marine equipment, oil and gas rigs, modern aeronautical engineering. We are glad to reach these agreements, thanks to which strategic cooperation in such an important area is being created”.
> 
> In his turn Sergey Chemezov noted that: “The production of AW189 in Russia will create large opportunities for the continuation of our succesfull cooperation with our Italian partners, Finmeccanica - AgustaWestland. The project will be implemented on the basis of an exclusive license agreement, which gives HeliVert the right to produce such helicopters, their distribution in Russia and the CIS. The participation of the leader of the Russian oil industry, Rosneft, in our project can give a new boost to the development of the joint venture and production expansion”.
> 
> BACKGROUND NOTES:
> 
> Utility helicopter AW 189 produced by AgustaWestland is referred to super medium category with maximal takeoff mass of 8.3 tonnes. The helicopter is optimized for offshore transport and search and rescue missions. It is also used for transportation carriage, passenger transportation and other shipping operations.
> 
> The standard cabin of AW 189 is designed for transportation of 16 people. The maximal cruise speed is 287 km per hour, maximal flying range (with additional tanks) is 600 nautical miles (1111 km).
> 
> The start-up of local assembly of the AW189 is a new large-scale project implemented at HeliVert plant. The joint venture has been assembling AW139 6.4-6.8 ton helicopters since June 2012. The locally assembled AW139 made its maiden flight in December 2012. In autumn 2014, Russian Helicopters and AgustaWestland announced the creation of a maintenance and repair centre for AW139 helicopters.
> 
> Today, the centre provides a comprehensive maintenance and repair service to various AW139 helicopters produced both in Russia and Italy.


----------



## McG

I wonder how long Putin can ride nationalist support for the Crimea annexation?  At some point in time, does the average Russian not inseparably link the military annexation with the current financial crisis such that mention of the first evokes feelings of dissension for the latter?


> Putin calls annexation of Crimea an historic landmark
> By Vladimir Isachenkov, Associated Press,
> (Nataliya Vasilyeva in Moscow contributed to this report)
> National Post
> 01 Jan 2015
> 
> MOSCOW — Russian President Vladimir Putin has used his New Year’s speech to hail his country’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea Peninsula as an achievement that will “forever remain a landmark in the national history.”
> 
> Putin’s comment in his pre-recorded annual address on Wednesday already has been broadcast in Russia’s far eastern regions, where the holiday was celebrated hours ahead of Moscow, given the time difference.
> 
> The Kremlin also published several dozen New Year’s messages that Putin has sent to heads of state and international organizations, including one to President Barack Obama.
> 
> Putin reminded Obama of the upcoming 70th anniversary of the allied victory in World War II, and said that should serve as a reminder of “the responsibility that Russia and the United States bear for maintaining peace and international stability.” Moscow is anxious for those bilateral relations to advance, but only as long as there is “equality and mutual respect.”
> 
> After Ukraine’s former Russia-friendly president was driven from power in February, Moscow sent troops to overtake Crimea, home to a Russian naval base. Those forces blocked Ukrainian military garrisons and set the stage for a hastily called referendum on Crimea joining Russia, which Ukraine and the West rejected as illegal.
> 
> The West has imposed crippling sanctions against Russia over the annexation of Crimea and Moscow’s support for a pro-Russian insurgency in eastern Ukraine, where the fighting between the government troops and the rebels has killed more than 4,700 since April.
> 
> Under the combined blow of the sanctions and slumping oil prices, the Russian ruble has lost about half its value this year and the national economy has drifted into recession. Putin has promised that the economy will rebound in two years, but he has failed to offer a specific plan for easing Russia’s heavy dependence on oil and gas revenues.
> 
> In his speech, Putin praised Crimea’s “return home,” a view widely backed by many Russians who saw Ukraine’s control over the Black Sea region a historic injustice. Crimea only became part of Ukraine when Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev gave the peninsula to his native land in 1954. That mattered little until the Soviet Union broke up in 1991 and Crimea ended up in an independent Ukraine.
> 
> Experts have warned that Putin’s popularity, which soared after the annexation of Crimea, could fizzle quickly amid his nation’s economic downturn. But the Russian leader refrained from directly referring to Russia’s economic woes in his New Year address, praising his citizens for their readiness to stay united “both in days of triumphs and at a time of trials” and to maintain their “unity and solidarity.”


----------



## The Bread Guy

MCG said:
			
		

> At some point in time, does the average Russian not inseparably link the military annexation with the current financial crisis such that mention of the first evokes feelings of dissension for the latter?


So far, it appears narrative to the effect of, "Crimea was always ours, so we should have it - and the U.S. is breaking our balls for taking back what was always ours" seems to be drowning out the negative link between Crimea & the financial crisis.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

From the 29 Dec issue of the National Post:



> *Russia’s body count is rising in Ukraine, despite army officials’ denials*
> 
> Tom Parfitt, The Telegraph | December 29, 2014 | Last Updated: Dec 29 1:08 PM ET
> 
> Anton Tumanov gave up his life for his country, but his country won’t say where and it won’t say how.
> 
> His mother knows. She knows that Mr. Tumanov, 20, a junior sergeant in the Russian army, was killed in eastern Ukraine, torn apart in a rocket attack on Aug 13.
> 
> Yelena Tumanova, 41, learned these bare facts about her son’s death from one of his comrades, who saw him get hit and scooped up his body.
> 
> “What I don’t understand is what he died for,” she says. “Why couldn’t we let people in Ukraine sort things out for themselves?” As the year draws to a close, the Kremlin continues to insist that not a single Russian soldier has entered Ukraine to join the pro-Moscow separatist militia who have been fighting government forces since April.
> 
> Earlier this month, Vladimir Putin, the president, said that all Russian combatants in Ukraine’s Donbas region were volunteer militiamen answering “a call of the heart.”
> 
> The story of Mr. Tumanov and the shadowy deaths of scores of other Russian servicemen since this summer belie that claim.
> 
> Rights activists have recorded cases of at least 40 serving soldiers suspected of dying in the conflict, and many believe the figure is in the hundreds, but prosecutors refuse to investigate their deaths.
> 
> Denied any legal status by the lies and obfuscation that muffle their stories, these men and their families have been left in limbo. They are casualties of an undeclared war.
> 
> Officially, Mr. Tumanov died while “carrying out responsibilities of military service” at an unnamed “point of temporary deployment of military unit 27777″, part of the army’s 18th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, whose permanent base is in Kalinovskaya, Chechnya. His death certificate records that he died from an “explosion injury”, receiving “multiple shrapnel wounds to the lower limbs” that resulted in “acute, massive blood loss.” The certificate leaves unticked a box saying the cause of his injuries was “military hostilities”, preferring instead “origin not established.”
> 
> Mrs. Tumanova, 41, waited “five agonizing days” for her son’s body to be brought home after she received notice of his death.
> 
> A sanitary inspector, she lives with her husband and Tumanov’s two younger brothers on the second floor of a wooden house in Kozmodemyansk, a small, crumpled town by a bend in the Volga, 400 miles east of Moscow. The sealed zinc coffin containing her son arrived on a Wednesday. “There was a little window in the top so you could look at his face,” she recalled.
> 
> Mrs. Tumanova spoke to a major in Chechnya by telephone who confirmed the young man had perished in Ukraine, but refused to explain why he was sent there or give any details. The order to go there, “came from above in verbal form only”, he said.
> 
> Mr. Tumanov had served as a conscript soldier after school and he decided to return to the forces as a career soldier when he couldn’t find a job. In June he was sent to Chechnya. “I tried to persuade him not to go because of what was happening in Ukraine,” said Mrs. Tumanova. “But our president said that none of our soldiers would be sent there – ’it’s just Ukrainians fighting each other’ – and I believed that. So in the end I did not argue.”
> 
> Mr. Tumanov had not been in Chechnya 10 days before he and other soldiers at the base were approached and asked if they would go to Donbas to fight as volunteers.
> 
> He and his friends refused, he told his mother by telephone. “Who wants to die?” she said. “That was their thinking. Nobody was attacking Russia; if they had been, Anton would have been first in the queue.”
> 
> By the middle of July, things had changed. Now 27777, his regular army unit, was dispatched to a temporary camp in the Rostov region, near the border with Ukraine, officially “for exercises.”
> 
> Soon he was telling Nastya Chernova, his fiancee, that he was going on short trips into Ukraine to accompany deliveries of arms and military vehicles to the rebels.
> 
> This was the moment when pro-Moscow militia in eastern Ukraine were on the brink of caving in to government forces, who had almost surrounded the separatist capital, Donetsk. Over the next month, Russia would stage a major intervention, sending tanks and troops across the border to help reclaim rebel territory.
> 
> On Aug 10, Mr. Tumanov telephoned his mother and said: “Tomorrow they are sending us to Donetsk [the rebel capital]. We’re going to help the militia.”
> 
> The next day he told her: “We’re handing in our documents and our phones. They’ve given us two grenades and 150 rounds of ammunition each.”
> 
> Miss Chernova, a slender 17-year-old high school student, says her fiancee went against his will. “The last time we spoke he told me he and some friends discussed running away but they were a long way from home, they didn’t have food,” she said.
> 
> Mrs. Tumanova knows what happened next from one of her son’s comrades. The soldier gave her a handwritten description.
> 
> “On Aug 11 we were given an order to remove the identification plates from our military vehicles, change into camouflage suits and tie white rags on our arms and legs,” the soldier wrote.
> 
> “At the border we received supplies of ammunition. On the 11th and 12th we crossed on to Ukrainian territory. On Aug 13 at lunchtime our column was hit by a rocket strike, during which Anton Tumanov died. At that moment we were in Ukraine, in Snezhnoye [a town not far from Donetsk].” Other soldiers suggested that as many as 120 men had died when the volley of Ukrainian Grad missiles hit.
> 
> Sergei Krivenko, the head of Citizen and Army, a civil group in Moscow which helps soldiers and their families protect their rights, says activists are sure of at least 40 deaths of Russian servicemen this summer and autumn, but suspect the total may be significantly higher. “Russia is officially not at war so there should be a criminal investigation into every death, but the authorities refuse our requests to open them,” he added. Many relatives are too frightened to speak about their loved ones’ deaths.
> 
> Probing the deaths can be a risky business. Lyudmila Bogatenkova, a 73-year-old representative of the Soldiers’ Mothers Committee in Stavropol, was charged with fraud after she investigated other deaths in Snezhnoye.
> 
> The St Petersburg chapter of the same group was added to Russia’s list of Foreign Agents – a blacklist of NGOs with foreign funding – after it publicized reports of scores of injured being brought to a hospital in the city.
> 
> In Kozmodemyansk, Miss Chernova cannot forget her boyfriend. She posts poems about Mr. Tumanov on social media and remembers the moment she woke up abruptly with a bad feeling inside on the day he died.
> 
> “Anton was not a volunteer,” she says forcefully. “He didn’t want to go to Ukraine to fight and kill people. He didn’t have that aggression inside him. He joined up to defend his country.” Mrs. Tumanova is still waiting for an explanation. She asked state prosecutors via a civil-rights group to investigate her son’s last days but there has been no reply.
> 
> At the town’s military commissariat, employees said they had no information about Mr. Tumanov. A senior official at the medical centre in Rostov where his death was recorded also refused to comment.
> 
> “For me, what’s important is that our government doesn’t hide what happened,” said Mrs. Tumanova.
> 
> “Our children are nameless, like homeless tramps. If they sent our soldiers there, let them admit it. It’s too late to bring Anton back but this is just inhuman.”



 Article Link


----------



## McG

Despite the title, I did not see anything in the article to support the idea that "Not-Russian" soldiers are still being killed in the Ukraine.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MCG said:
			
		

> Despite the title, I did not see anything in the article to support the idea that "Not-Russian" soldiers are still being killed in the Ukraine.



Open source (OS) (English), 12 Nov 2014:  "On 11 November (2014), the (OSCE monitoring team) observed a van marked with signs “gruz 200” [“Cargo 200” which is a well-known Russian military code used for “military personnel killed in action”] crossing from the RF to Ukraine and returning several hours later."

OS (Russian), 29 Dec 2014:  "Next batch "cargo-200" has arrived in the Rostov region." - Ukrainian Twitter source

OS (Ukrainian source, in Russian), 2 Dec 2014:  "As far Ussuriisk (Far East Russia) came from the Donbass 17 zinc "packages" with "cargo 200" "


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Very Soviet, we lie and don't care if the facts don't fit, we will lie until it becomes the truth. This will comeback to haunt Putin, the dead soldiers cannot be properly honoured for their sacrifice and that will bother the Russian people, families and eventually the military.


----------



## a_majoor

The situation in Ukraine has also had serious financial implications. A default by Ukraine will throw potential allies for a loop, and as a worst case cause a chain reaction of defaults in other financially weak nations:

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/01/07/ukraine-in-bond-trouble/



> *Ukraine in Bond Trouble*
> 
> Reading the tea leaves of Ukrainian bond prices, a leading indicator of future economic health, does not inspire confidence. The FT reports on the sorry state of Ukraine’s economy:
> 
> 
> The IMF initially assumed that the Ukrainian economy would contract 5 per cent last year, but even the subsequent revision to a 6.5 per cent recession now looks optimistic. Some economists estimate gross domestic product shrank 8 per cent last year, and the central bank governor has said output could have fallen as much as 10 per cent.
> 
> Add in the resulting budget slippage and a deeper devaluation of the currency than forecast and the FT’s interactive debt software indicates that Kiev’s debt-to-GDP ratio is likely to approach 90 per cent in 2015 — more than doubled from 2013 and at a level that the IMF often deems unsustainable.
> 
> The IMF estimates that Ukraine needs another $15bn to avert a default, but the fund, the US and the EU are wrangling over who will foot the bill. Time is running out because the IMF is not allowed to make the next disbursement from the existing programme unless it can say to a high degree of confidence that Kiev’s debts are sustainable.[…]
> 
> Unless Kiev’s western backers come up with more money soon, Ukraine could be forced to default, a prospect that has led the country’s creditors to dump their bonds. The $2.6 billion Ukrainian government bond maturing in 2017 sank to a record low of 58 cents on the dollar on Tuesday, equal to a yield of over 35 per cent.
> 
> Ukraine’s problems with Russia are just part of the enormous set of obstacles it faces going forward, the worst of which are primarily economic. If Russia’s strength relative to the West decides the course of the Ukrainian war, Putin is doomed. But, if the weakness of Ukraine is the decider, Putin has a much better chance of getting a deal that works for him. This news about the truly fragile state of Ukrainian finance will put smiles on the faces of at least some of the worried men in the Kremlin.


----------



## McG

The Christmas peace begins to unravel with increased artillery fires, including the destruction of a civilian commuter bus with its passengers.  Looks like more Not-Russian supply convoys moving materiel forward too.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/ukraine-bus-attack-kills-11-could-herald-grim-future-as-truce-staggers-1.2186090


----------



## MilEME09

December seemed to be a bitter peace for both sides thats now over, the rebels are getting a steady supply of everything they need from Russia, Ukraine on the other hand is getting plenty of non-leathal aid, but is quickly running out of vehicles, trucks, tanks, jets and other critical equipment. They can't help them selves to must either due to the South East of Ukraine being the industrial heart land of the country. So Ukraine is in a sticky situation, they need funding, but their economy is in bad shape.


----------



## a_majoor

Fighting continues at the Donetsk airport. Social media, bringing war to your desktop:

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2015/01/16/huge-explosions-at-donetsk-airport-key-battleground-in-ukraine/?print=1



> VIDEO: Huge Explosions At Donetsk Airport, Key Battleground In Ukraine
> Posted By David Steinberg On January 16, 2015 @ 12:24 pm In Politics | 5 Comments
> 
> UPDATE (3:45 p.m.): The Interpreter blog offers the following analysis, closed by the key observation that the shelling appears to have come from Russian-backed areas — which would conflict with the Donetsk People’s Republic’s claim that they had captured the airport earlier today, as reported by the NY Times:
> 
> The video is dramatic. First there is a strange noise, then a massive series of explosions on the horizon. The title of this video suggests a massive airstrike has just hit Donetsk. It was shot within the last hour.
> 
> That scenario, however, is unlikely. It’s not clear what payload a single aircraft could deliver that would cause that many explosions spread out over a very wide area. The roar we hear before the explosions is likely the sound of rockets traveling through the air, many rockets since this appears to be the result of a multiple-launch-rocket-system, perhaps a Grad strike.
> 
> The fact that we hear the rockets before seeing the explosions means that they likely came from behind the camera – territory held by the Russian-backed fighters.
> 
> Most of the rockets hit the western half of the airport, and all of those explosions give off about the same amount of light and sound.
> 
> However, there are two more things that are odd about this video. The first is that there are several much louder and brighter explosions in the center.
> 
> The second is that there are a long series of explosions far off to the right after this initial wave. These explosions are the last of the series, are much fainter flashes, and don’t appear to give off any sound.
> 
> So what just happened? Here’s our theory.
> 
> A multiple-launch-rocket-system, likely a Grad launcher, struck the airport. This would account for the large amounts of explosions in a tight cluster.
> 
> A different weapon fired the shots that hit in the center of the screen. We used a stop watch to time the gap between the light and the sound of these explosions. It took approximately 8.57 seconds for the sound to reach the camera, which means that the explosion was approximately 1.86 miles away. What this means is that those shells are much closer than the ones that hit on the right side of the screen. But it’s also possible, as we see on this map, that they may have hit a series of fuel storage tankers which are near the airport (the same ones filmed by Graham Phillips earlier today). Might that account for the fact that four of the explosions appear to be much larger than the rest? Either way, this indicates a coordinated strike between multiple artillery batteries:
> 
> 
> The last set of explosions may also be Grad rockets, but they likely targeted the Ukrainian position near Avdiivka. Interestingly, though, these explosions are much further to the east than we’re used to seeing. Perhaps they missed their target?
> 
> Either way, if the Russian-backed fighters are the ones shelling the airport, then it’s another sign that they do not fully control this location.
> 
> ——————————————
> 
> Russia Today has posted the below security camera video, in which several large explosions begin around the :46 mark.
> 
> Earlier today, the NY Times ran an article claiming the Donetsk People’s Republic, a pro-Putin group, announced they had gained control of the airport.
> 
> 
> The airport was already in ruins from months of shelling, as per this drone footage also posted today, yet still considered a strategic site:
> 
> On the below video posted today by Euronews:
> 
> A Ukrainian military spokesman said six of his troops were killed in attacks by separatists in 24 hours of clashes. Another 18 were wounded.
> 
> Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko refuted claims that rebels had taken hold of the airport and said they had been repelled completely from around the new terminal, a strategic site in the east of the country.
> 
> This tweet comes from Oliver Carroll, a reporter in Ukraine:
> 
> Further to the last post, sounds in Donetsk centre mostly due to outgoing artillery – which has, in past few hours, been strangely silent
> 
> — Oliver Carroll (@olliecarroll) January 16, 2015
> 
> There is much other talk on Twitter that the sounds in the above security video just prior to the explosions may be a jet engine, indicating an air strike, but so far there is no confirmation of this:
> 
> VIDEO: Recording from #Donetsk which seems to contain sound of a jet before a series of large explosions https://t.co/EmCTErX16B v @MarQs__
> 
> — Conflict News (@rConflictNews) January 16, 2015
> 
> 
> 
> Russian separatists have also claimed to have been hit by an airstrike at #Donetsk airport, so this seems to jive with that report.
> 
> — Conflict News (@rConflictNews) January 16, 2015
> 
> Article printed from The PJ Tatler: http://pjmedia.com/tatler
> 
> URL to article: http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2015/01/16/huge-explosions-at-donetsk-airport-key-battleground-in-ukraine/


----------



## McG

Ukraine forces launch a counter offensive that reclaims territory taken by rebels over recent weeks.  Boundaries set in the September peace agreement are restored.  Russia is unhappy.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-forces-reclaim-donetsk-airport-in-new-offensive-1.2917053


----------



## a_majoor

Lithuania is getting ready for Russian agression as well. Don't think this will stop in Ukraine; Russia wants to re integrate it's "Near Beyond" and be seen and treated as a great power again. Vladimir Putin's 2007 speech in Munich laid out his aspirations and subsequent actions since then have only made this clear:

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/514426.html



> *Lithuania's War Manual to Prepare Citizens for Russian Invasion*
> Reuters
> Jan. 15 2015 15:45
> Last edited 15:45
> 
> Lithuania is publishing a manual to advise its citizens on how to survive a war on its soil as the country's Defense Minister warn its Russian neighbor "is not friendly."
> 
> "Keep a sound mind, don't panic and don't lose clear thinking," the manual explains. "Gunshots just outside your window are not the end of the world."
> 
> The manual, which the Defense Ministry will send to libraries next week and also distribute at army events, says Lithuanians should resist foreign occupation with demonstrations and strikes, "or at least doing your job worse than usual."
> 
> In the event of invasion, the manual says Lithuanians should organize themselves through Twitter and Facebook and attempt cyber attacks against the enemy.
> 
> Lithuania spent much of the last century incorporated in Soviet Union, along with Latvia and Estonia, and upon independence in 1991 quickly sought to join the Western NATO alliance and the European Union.
> 
> It is increasingly worried about Russia, not least because of a military drill in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad last month that featured 9,000 soldiers and more than 55 naval vessels.
> 
> "The examples of Georgia and Ukraine, which both lost a part of their territory, show us that we cannot rule out a similar kind of situation here, and that we should be ready," Defense Minister Juozas Olekas said.
> 
> "When Russia started its aggression in Ukraine, here in Lithuania our citizens understood that our neighbor is not friendly," Olekas added.
> 
> The Lithuanian army and its paramilitary reserve force have seen increased recruitment since the crisis in Ukraine.
> 
> The government is also considering requiring all future buildings to incorporate a bomb shelter on the premises.
> 
> Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine last year, and Western governments say they have overwhelming evidence that it is supplying troops and weaponry to pro-Russian separatists who have seized parts of eastern Ukraine, an accusation that Moscow denies.
> 
> See also:
> 
> NATO Looking at Increasing Drills in Baltic Region, Top General Says
> 
> Lithuania Joins Euro as Tensions With Neighboring Russia Rise
> 
> Lithuania May Block Two More Russian TV Channels for Biased Coverage


----------



## vonGarvin

Thucydides said:
			
		

> Lithuania is getting ready for Russian aggression as well. Don't think this will stop in Ukraine; Russia wants to re integrate it's "Near Beyond" and be seen and treated as a great power again.


The only way this won't stop is if NATO keeps upping the ante.  Why it even bothers is beyond me.


----------



## George Wallace

Not just Lithuania, but all three Baltic nations that were formerly under the Warsaw Pact governance.  All three have large Russian populations as a result of Russian policies following WW II and the implementation of the Warsaw Pact.


----------



## Kirkhill

General Disorder said:
			
		

> The only way this won't stop is if NATO keeps upping the ante.  Why it even bothers is beyond me.



For clarification: Are you saying that if NATO stops responding then Putin will stop pushing?


----------



## YZT580

If you believe that, call me, I have a small acreage in Florida I would like to sell you.


----------



## midget-boyd91

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/russian-activist-382-russian-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine-during-last-three-days-377786.html

Although taken from a media outlet based in Kiev, and therefore very very biased in terms of actual bodycount figures, I'd be interested in just how many 'non-Russian' soldiers have in fact been killed. I read a number of articles from different media outlets on either side of the conflict a few weeks ago that quoted a Russian combatant in saying that during the peak of the fighting there were Russian units taking 90 to 100 fatalities on a weekly basis.



> Respected Russian human rights activist Elena Vasilieva has announced that 382 Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine during the last three days.
> 
> "_ came back from the war zone. It is impossible to call it an ATO zone - it is a real merciless war there," Vasilieva writes on her official website. "I'm already afraid to write these numbers. The Russian army has huge losses over the past three days. 382 people - selected Special Forces, marines, paratroopers. Up to 500 injured. More likely the number of wounded is much higher. But we have no access to the full information about the injured from the Russian side."
> 
> The activist said that, counting the most recent 382 deaths, the total loss on the Russian side is 6,242 killed.
> 
> It's impossible to verify Vasilieva's claim because the Russian government insists that no Russian soldiers are fighting in Ukraine -- only volunteers -- and the Ukrainian government also does not have reliable figures on the number of enemy casualties._


----------



## wannabe SF member

I'm sorry but her figure of 6000+ russian soldiers (not NAF militiamen) killed is absolutely ludicrous. Let's not get caught up in Kiev's propaganda machine here.


----------



## The Bread Guy

George Wallace said:
			
		

> Not just Lithuania, but all three Baltic nations that were formerly under the Warsaw Pact governance.  All three have large Russian populations as a result of Russian policies following WW II and the implementation of the Warsaw Pact.


Not to mention all members of NATO now, subject to that pesky "collective defence" thing ("Collective defence means that an attack against one Ally is considered as an attack against all Allies.")



			
				Inky said:
			
		

> I'm sorry but her figure of 6000+ russian soldiers (not NAF militiamen) killed is absolutely ludicrous. Let's not get caught up in Kiev's propaganda machine here.


That does seem a bit high - Russian sources (quoted here, outlined in detail - in Russian - here) call it closer to +250.


----------



## MilEME09

Cease fire is off, the battles begin, but without proper military aid how long can Ukraine hold out?



> *10 killed by rocket fire in east Ukraine city of Mariupol*
> 
> KIEV, Ukraine -- A crowded open-air market in Ukraine's strategically important coastal city of Mariupol came under rocket fire Saturday morning, killing at least 10 people, regional police said.
> 
> Mariupol lies on the Azov Sea and is the major city between mainland Russia and the Russia-annexed Crimean Peninsula. Heavy fighting in the region in the autumn raised fears that Russian-backed separatist forces would try to establish a land link between Russia and Crimea.
> 
> Rebel forces have positions within 10 kilometres from Mariupol's eastern outskirts.
> The Interior Ministry said rockets struck homes, setting them alight, as well as the market and shops. A Ukrainian military checkpoint on a road leading out of the city toward rebel-held areas was also hit, police said.
> 
> Rocket strikes on Mariupol come as separatists have declared their intention to mount a multi-pronged offensive aimed at vastly increasing the territory under their control. That would definitively upend recent European attempts to mediate an end to the fighting.
> 
> Mariupol city council urged residents not to panic and to ignore rumours that Ukrainian armed forces were planning to withdraw.
> 
> "On the contrary, all units are on fully battle-ready. Security measures in the city have been strengthened," the council said in a statement.
> 
> No armed separatist units have been noted moving toward the city, the statement added.
> 
> Clashes are taking place across the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, where separatist insurgencies emerged in April following Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula.
> 
> Fighting has also been intensifying in recent days for the government-held town of Debaltseve. Main roads to the town lie in separatist control and speculation is mounting that Ukrainian forces stationed there could soon be fully encircled.
> 
> Russia insists that it does not support the rebels, but Western military officials say the sheer number of heavy weapons under rebel control belies that claim.
> 
> A peace deal signed in September in the Belarusian capital of Minsk envisaged a cease-fire and a pullout of heavy weapons from a division line in eastern Ukraine. It has been repeatedly violated by both sides, and heavy artillery and rocket barrages have increased the civilian death toll in the last few weeks.
> 
> Foreign ministers from Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany agreed Wednesday to revive that division line, but fighting has continued unabated. The UN human rights agency on Friday raised its estimate of the conflict's overall death toll to nearly 5,100 since April.



http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/10-killed-by-rocket-fire-in-east-ukraine-city-of-mariupol-1.2203945


----------



## McG

Apparently the rebels have announced an offensive to take the port city.
Meanwhile, there are arguments as to wether Ukraine special forces or an internal rebel power struggle has left one rebel leader dead.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30964970


----------



## The Bread Guy

MCG said:
			
		

> Apparently the rebels have announced an offensive to take the port city.


Which the separatists say is really Ukraine shelling itself ....


> Kiev’s claims that Donetsk militia carried out Saturday’s deadly attack in the city of Mariupol are a “provocation” aimed at escalating the armed conflict in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, the deputy speaker of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) parliament said ....



Latest UKR government sitrep map attached (in Ukrainian)


----------



## MilEME09

I'm going to make a guess that this latest offensive by the rebels is a final desperate act to take over the region, with sanctions and low oil prices crippling the Russian economy. I bet the rebels are finding their support drying up, so they need to move fast while they still can. That said the loss of  Donetsk airport is a blow to the government, even if only symbolic. As a symbol of resistance, the fact that it took from last may until now to fall to the rebels I think says a lot about the Ukrainian troops fighting in that region. That said what Ukrainian forces really needs is air power, especially SEAD missiles to take out those Russian donated anti-air systems.


----------



## The Bread Guy

The latest maps - UKR government in English, pro-separatist forces in Russian.


----------



## McG

The UN has called the Mariupol rocket attack a war crime.  I suspect the rebels do not care.


http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/deadly-attack-on-ukrainian-city-of-mariupol-could-be-a-war-crime-un-1.2207208


----------



## MilEME09

MCG said:
			
		

> The UN has called the Mariupol rocket attack a war crime.  I suspect the rebels do not care.
> 
> 
> http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/deadly-attack-on-ukrainian-city-of-mariupol-could-be-a-war-crime-un-1.2207208



it's not like its going to get the world to act, the Rebels are getting a steady flow of everything from Russia, Ukraine is trying to build and buy from where it can, which I highly doubt is at a sustainable level. Perhaps we should play hard politics with Russia, Georgia has been promised NATO membership for awhile but the fear of upsetting Russia holds it back, maybe its time to ignore the bear this once. Even Finland is quietly moving closer to NATO.


----------



## a_majoor

Ukraine is rearming:

http://nextbigfuture.com/2015/01/ukraine-upgrading-and-replacing-t64-ifv.html



> *Ukraine upgrading and replacing T64 IFV tank variant and heavy lift cargo plane*
> 
> Ukraine is usually the 4th largest arms exporter in the world and is currently in a war with Russia. Russia is the second largest arms exporter in the world.
> 
> Ukraine has renewed development of heavy infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) based on the T-64 main battle tank (MBT), Ukroboronprom has announced.
> 
> The Kharkov Morozov Machine Building Design Bureau had previously created prototypes of a new IFV based on the T-64 but work is understood to have ceased some years ago.
> 
> Now the firm has resumed development of the heavy IFV in order to ready the designs for serial production. According to Ukroboronprom, this work could be completed in time to allow for mass production to begin before the end of the year.
> 
> Instead of the 125 mm armed main turret of the T-64, a new IFV turret has been added to the vehicle. Boasting an impressive amount of firepower, the original prototype features a turret armed with a ZTM-1 30 mm automatic cannon and a 7.62 mm machine gun. Two anti-tank missiles are mounted on the left-hand side of the turret, while two banks of three grenade launchers are attached to the front of the turret. In addition, the commander's hatch on the roof of the turret features a cupola armed with a twin GSh-23 mm cannon and a 30 mm automatic grenade launcher.
> 
> The T-64 IFVs armour protection has also been increased with the incorporation of Nozh ('Knife') advanced dynamic protection system (explosive reactive armour - ERA), although a defensive aid suite (DAS) was not known to have been installed on the original prototype.
> 
> 
> Ukraine is restarting the development of a heavy infantry fighting vehicle based on the T-64 MBT chassis. Ukroboronprom hopes to be ready to begin serial production of the IFV, if ordered by Ukraine, this year. Source: Ukroboronprom
> 
> Ukraine has suffered massive losses among its armoured vehicle inventories. While exact numbers are hard to pin down, it has likely lost at least 150 MBTs and a further 350 IFVs of various types during the conflict.
> 
> The T-64-based IFV is understood to weigh in at around 34.5 tonnes, making it well over double the weight of the 14.3 tonne BMP-2 and more akin to the 32.7 tonne weight of the US Army's Bradley M2A3 IFV.
> 
> Converting MBT hulls into IFVs is not a new concept, with Israel in particular well known for converting first Centurion tank hulls, and now Merkava tank hulls into heavy IFVs - due to their utility in urban warfare, where speed is less relevant and all-round protection is key. The Ukrainian T-64 IFV is, however, dwarfed by the Merkava-derived Namer IFV, which weighs 62 tonnes.
> 
> 47 ton airlift AN-70
> 
> Ukraine has approved production of the Antonov An-70 transport aircraft and will introduce it into service with its armed forces
> 
> Serial production will now begin, although the company did not specify numbers or timelines.
> 
> The An-70 is a four-engined propfan that has been jointly developed by Ukraine and Russia. With a cargo hold measuring 22.4 m in length, 4.80 m in width, and 4.40 m in height, the airlifter has a hold volume of 425 m cubed. This, combined with a range of 6,598 km (with a 20,000 kg payload) and a maximum payload of 47,000 kg, place the An-70 in the same category of airlifter as the A400M Atlas from Airbus Defence and Space.
> 
> With a forecasted global heavy-lift market valued at about USD30 billion over the next decade, the An-70 is likely to find itself competing not just with the A400M, but against the Embraer KC-390 and the Lockheed Martin C-130J-30 Hercules also.


----------



## McG

Looks like the weekend's violence will bring new sanctions against Russia.



> Ukraine conflict: EU to debate fresh Russia sanctions
> BBC News
> 29 Jan 2015
> 
> EU foreign ministers are due to meet in Brussels to discuss imposing further sanctions on Russia following an upsurge in fighting in east Ukraine.
> 
> The meeting was called after pro-Russian rebels attacked the port of Mariupol at the weekend.
> 
> The EU and the US have already slapped asset freezes and travel bans on Russian individuals and businesses as well as Ukrainian separatist leaders.
> 
> Nato says hundreds of Russian tanks and armoured vehicles are in east Ukraine.
> 
> Moscow denies direct involvement but says some Russian volunteers are fighting alongside the rebels.
> 
> BBC Europe Correspondent Damian Grammaticas says EU ministers will discuss fresh sanctions as well as extending the duration of existing measures.
> 
> EU leaders meeting on 12 February will have to confirm any new measures. They may also discuss possible new financial sanctions on Russia, co-ordinated with the US, our correspondent adds.
> 
> Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius told the BBC that European values were under attack in Ukraine.
> 
> If we see no signs of improvement we should proceed with further sanctions," he said. "How many people should be killed in order to realise that lines were crossed many times?"
> 
> The White House gave a strong signal on Wednesday that it was considering further sanctions against Russia over its support for the separatists.
> 
> US Vice President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko spoke on the phone after which the US condemned "Russian-backed separatists" and the "heavy toll that the Russian-backed offensive in the east was having on Ukraine's civilian population".
> 
> "As long as Russia continues its blatant disregard of its obligations... the costs for Russia will continue to rise," Mr Biden was reported to have told Mr Poroshenko.
> 
> EU leaders issued a rare joint statement on Tuesday instructing foreign ministers "to consider any appropriate action" after the violence in Mariupol.
> 
> ...


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31033924


----------



## wannabe SF member

Not so sure about THE EU since Greece got that election 9 theirs. The ruling party seems inclined to block new sanctions and EU decision making is consensus based.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, in goofy separatist news - wonder how Texas separatists will like working with "them Rooskies" ....


> The DPR plans to held “summit of unrecognized states’ with participation of delegations from Abkhazia, *Texas*, Flandreau, Venice, Southern Ossetia, LPR and DPR.
> 
> It is planned to announce about Liga of the Newest States at the session. (Donetsk and *Hyuston*, Lugansk, *Dallas*, such Firm Union. It was announced by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the DPR Alexandr Kofman.
> 
> The head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the DPR states that ‘negotiations with these countries have been already held, and the agreement has been given’. He announced that it is planned to announce about establishment of Liga of the Newest States.
> 
> The Ministry of Foreign Affairs Ossetia announced that it is planned to sign documents concerning establishment of diplomatic relations with the DPR. The head of the DPR Alexandr Zaharchenko announced that the republic lots upon the recognition from Abkhazia.



More on the Texas secession movement here (usual Wikipedia caveats), here and here.


----------



## upandatom

Inky said:
			
		

> Not so sure about THE EU since Greece got that election 9 theirs. The ruling party seems inclined to block new sanctions and EU decision making is consensus based.


Just read that they were going to agree to the newest set of sanctions, and then two stories later on news.google.ca a different view shows that they are rekindling the russian romance....huh....

BBC was the first one, I would have a tendency to follow that story first.


----------



## MilEME09

Now im no economic expert but is it just me or does it seem like Europe could cause a total collapse of the Russian economy right now if it targeted oil and gas from russia in sanction namely gas.


----------



## McG

EU extends (but does not increase) sanctions and considers adding more Russians to travel bans.  While the new leadership in Greece has show some favoritism toward Russia, the speculation is that they can be bought with EU debt forgiveness.  

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31033924


----------



## MilEME09

reading the Ukrainian twitter feed (https://twitter.com/NSDC_ua) it seems like the rebels are concentrating on the towns of Debaltseve and Vuhlehirsk, the taking of these towns would give separatists control of the M103 highway between Donetsk and Luhansk which would be a blow to the Ukrainian government and puts the separatists in range to attack another major city.


----------



## Lightguns

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> Now im no economic expert but is it just me or does it seem like Europe could cause a total collapse of the Russian economy right now if it targeted oil and gas from russia in sanction namely gas.



The gas dependence is huge, such sanctions would likely collapse EU before Russia.  The EU is a pretty hollow economic alliance right now.  The UK is moving toward a majority opinion on getting out, France, Italy and Spain are not really complying with any EU economic directives and Greece is in near open revolt economically.  There is a near toothless USA that cannot be counted on by the EU.  Only Germany seems to be holding the EU together on the Russian question and that's driven by a seemingly personal relationship of German politicans and Russian oligarchs.  It's a rotten house of cards waiting to be pushed in.


----------



## a_majoor

WRT oil and gas, the EU *could* shift away from Russian imports and buy American and Canadian hydrocarbons "now" (very near term), and in the longer term there are large gas fields identified in the Med which can allow the EU to get away from both Russian and ME sources (since some of the fields are potentially in the Greek economic zone, this could also help the Greeks paper over their problems in the short term. Knowing politicians, it seems very unlikely they will make the structural changes needed to actually repair their economy with any new hydrocarbon monies that come in).

This is contingent on the EUrocrats and politicians to pull their beds out of their neither regions and actually address the issue, something which does not seem likely ATT.


----------



## MilEME09

Thucydides said:
			
		

> WRT oil and gas, the EU *could* shift away from Russian imports and buy American and Canadian hydrocarbons "now" (very near term), and in the longer term there are large gas fields identified in the Med which can allow the EU to get away from both Russian and ME sources (since some of the fields are potentially in the Greek economic zone, this could also help the Greeks paper over their problems in the short term. Knowing politicians, it seems very unlikely they will make the structural changes needed to actually repair their economy with any new hydrocarbon monies that come in).
> 
> This is contingent on the EUrocrats and politicians to pull their beds out of their neither regions and actually address the issue, something which does not seem likely ATT.



I would wager that it will be these far left and right anti-austerity parties that will actually do something about it, elections in Spain coming this year will be a good sign how EU politics is shifting.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

For those interested http://www.militaryphotos.net/ has a forum dedicated to uploaded imagery from the fighting in Ukraine. 

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?236005-Situation-in-the-Ukraine-Crimea-*Photos-Videos*-ONLY/page310


----------



## MilEME09

Update on Ukraine via Ukrainian government.


----------



## CougarKing

And speaking of more goofy separatist news... 

This reminds me of the time some pro-Russian separatists tried to re-start an IS-3 tank on a WW2 memorial pedestal as stated earlier in the thread.



> *Ukrainian separatists show off 'air force'*
> 
> IHS Jane's 360
> 
> Separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine are attempting to return combat aircraft from the Luhansk aviation museum to an airworthy state, a video posted online on 29 January appears to show.
> 
> <snipped>
> 
> While the Su-25 is seen being painted in the colours of the self-styled separatist state of Novorossiya, nothing in the video suggests it is functional. The L-29, however, is powered up and performs a low-speed taxi trial. Both aircraft are armed - the Su-25 with four underwing rocket pods and the L-29 with two underwing dumb bombs - but it is not possible to tell if these munitions are live or museum props.
> 
> Two days prior to the video being posted, the Ukrainian military said it had destroyed a number of aircraft in the possession of the separatists.* These, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) said, included an Aero L-39 Albatros light attack jet, a Yakovlev Yak-52 basic trainer and light attack prop, two Antonov An-2 'Colt' tactical transport aircraft, as well as four Mil Mi-24 'Hind' attack helicopters.* From the list provided by the MoD, it would seem that the Su-25 and L-29 located at Luhansk, close to the border with Russia, were not targeted on this occasion.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A screenshot from a video showing separatists taxiing an L-29 jet they recovered from the Luhansk aviation museum. A bomb can be seen under the wing (and one is carried under the other wing), but it is unclear if these are real or just museum props. Source: Southeast - Ukraine - information agency


----------



## MilEME09

Ukrainian air defense units must be giddy to shoot those down, wonder what one of those will look like after an S-300 or a Buk land a missle on it


----------



## MilEME09

The twitter account run by National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine reports another batch of military gear and Uniforms arrived from Canada. As far as I have seen Canada is the only country they usually name when it comes to aid coming from the outside.


----------



## CougarKing

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> Ukrainian air defense units must be giddy to shoot those down, wonder what one of those will look like after an S-300 or a Buk land a missle on it



Do you think these museum props-turned-warplanes could actually just be a cover for the pro-Russian rebels "miraculously" finding some MiG29s and Su27s later that are flown by Russian AF pilots on "holiday"?  ;D


----------



## MilEME09

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> Do you think these museum props-turned-warplanes could actually just be a cover for the pro-Russian rebels "miraculously" finding some MiG29s and Su27s later that are flown by Russian AF pilots on "holiday"?  ;D



Oddly enough I was thinking that just today, Don't forget Mi-24's were mentioned in there. Luckly the Ukrainian forces don't have any airbases in the area the rebels claim they want to control. Donetsk airport is out of the question for use leaving Luhansk airport, take that out of the picture, and no more airforce for the rebels. Problem is to get to get the Ukrainians have to advance some 30+ kilometers at the shortest point. However I feel the government forces are unable to mount a large counter attack right now and are in a re-equip and reorganize phase. I don't think we will see any counter blows until spring or summer from the government side and instead they will do their best to hold what they have. Personally I'd stay defensive in Donetsk and put the majority of pressure on Luhansk since rebels control less of that Oblast.


----------



## KerryBlue

Well something big just went boom in Donetsk. 
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=9a2_1423433645
http://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/2v8ddh/enormous_explosion_in_donetsk_ukraine_the_cause/
http://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/2v8au5/donetsk_right_now/

From reports/unsubstantiated internet rumors either a Russian "humanitarian aid" convoy got hit or a separatist ammo dump got hit. 

There is a facebook post from a Ukrainian soldier claiming it was Ukrainian artillery hitting some Russian stuff destroying "20 Grads, 30 vehicles with ammo, 200 insurgents." 
https://www.facebook.com/dyastrub/posts/780219525388267?pnref=story


----------



## MilEME09

Now the DPR is saying it was a chemical plant, Ukrainian government twitter has this today as well



> NSDC of Ukraine @NSDC_ua  ·  6h 6 hours ago
> 
> ATO press center does not confirm information about 2 Russian fighter jets over #Debaltseve



and in other news



> NSDC of Ukraine @NSDC_ua  ·  11h 11 hours ago
> 
> Ukrainian servicemen hijacked a T-72 tank that belonged to pro-Russian insurgents. T-72 isn’t produced in Ukraine.



A few days ago they also reported destroying a TOS-1 Buratino, if true they kind should show that off as since Ukraine doesn't have that in its inventory Russia would have some explaining to do.


----------



## jollyjacktar

Reminds me of this.   ;D    SCTV Farm Report


----------



## McG

Sounds like the Canadian RADARSAT-2 will start helping the Ukraine military track Not-Russian mechanized troop movements in rebel held territory.


> Ottawa plans to provide valuable satellite images to Ukrainian forces
> CTV News
> 11 Feb 2015
> 
> Ottawa plans to help Ukraine’s beleaguered armed forces by providing them with high-resolution images from Canada’s powerful RADARSAT-2 satellite, CTV News has learned.
> 
> Twice a day, the satellite will cross over Ukraine, providing precise details on what is happening on the ground -- day or night.  That will allow the Ukrainians to redeploy their troops and use them more strategically against Russian-backed separatists.
> 
> The satellite is “really good at detecting military hardware,” Retired Col. Andre Dupuis of Space Strategies Consulting told CTV’s Ottawa Bureau Chief Robert Fife.
> 
> The stakes are high because there is no guarantee that the current ceasefire between Ukraine and the rebels will hold.  If the ceasefire fails, the U.S. could move to arm the Ukrainian forces.
> 
> The leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine met in Minsk Thursday to try to negotiate an end to the bloodshed in eastern Ukraine. The talks come amid intense fighting in recent weeks.
> 
> If the U.S. ends up supplying Ukraine with lethal arms, Canada may do the same. New defence minister Jason Kenney said that Ottawa is in “very close contact with our allies to see what the next steps might be.”


http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/ottawa-plans-to-provide-valuable-satellite-images-to-ukrainian-forces-1.2232388


----------



## The Bread Guy

MCG said:
			
		

> Sounds like the Canadian RADARSAT-2 will start helping the Ukraine military track Not-Russian mechanized troop movements in rebel held territory.http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/ottawa-plans-to-provide-valuable-satellite-images-to-ukrainian-forces-1.2232388


And in addition to a bit of SATINT help ....


> The country’s new defence minister left the door open Wednesday for Canadian troops to join the U.S. in training Ukrainian forces and for an extension of the combat mission against the Islamic State.
> 
> Jason Kenney, speaking on CBC’s Power and Politics, echoed Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s comments in saying that “all options are on the table” when it comes to opposing Russian interference in eastern Ukraine, but was more specific on the issue of training.
> 
> He said: “if there is consensus that we could play a role in terms of training, we would be open to doing so, but no decisions have been taken.” ....


----------



## vonGarvin

I may be a bit off here, but isn't providing military intelligence to a nation involved in combat an active participation in that combat?


----------



## The Bread Guy

General Disorder said:
			
		

> I may be a bit off here, but isn't providing military intelligence to a nation involved in combat an active participation in that combat?


Maybe they'll just be using the imagery to co-ordinate humanitarian support and convoys, as I'm sure the imagery of other nations may be being used elsewhere in the immediate region?  >

Seriously, that _is_ an interesting question.  Does it make Canada any more of an "active" participant than, say, sending stores that end up on the backs/feet of combatants?  Or sending cash?  Slippery slope (and, to use another cliche, thin edge of the wedge), but I'd say (knowing only what the media says so far) no.

If I was the info-machine, I could message it as "we're sharing satellite pictures*** to help a NATO ally**** - _they're_ developing the intelligence*****."  

But I'm in a particularly cynical frame of mind this morning  ;D

*** - The raw data
**** - Not "member", but sounds close enough to feel really close and snuggly to the base, and deniable to opponents
***** - The analysis and finished product


----------



## McG

General Disorder said:
			
		

> I may be a bit off here, but isn't providing military intelligence to a nation involved in combat an active participation in that combat?


I think you really have to be stretching definitions and word smithing, in an opposition party invent-a-scandals sort of way, to start suggesting Canada is involved in combat in the Ukraine.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

General Disorder said:
			
		

> I may be a bit off here, but isn't providing military intelligence to a nation involved in combat an active participation in that combat?



Well NATO has released overhead imagery showing Russian equipment in Ukraine so I think that bridge has already been crossed.


----------



## McG

So, another ceasefire is reached between Ukraine, rebels, and Russia.  The EU threatens to hammer Russia with more sanctions if this agreement fails to take-hold and/or last.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31447930


----------



## vonGarvin

MCG said:
			
		

> I think you really have to be stretching definitions and word smithing, in an opposition party invent-a-scandals sort of way, to start suggesting Canada is involved in combat in the Ukraine.


No.  Providing a service that assists in targeting is a hell of a long way from boots, helmets and the like.


----------



## KerryBlue

MCG said:
			
		

> So, another ceasefire is reached between Ukraine, rebels, and Russia.  The EU threatens to hammer Russia with more sanctions if this agreement fails to take-hold and/or last.
> 
> http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31447930



Yep all the while 



> Critical battle at Logvinovo right now. The goal is to unblock Debaltsevo before the 15th.


http://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/2vnxh3/critical_battle_at_logvinovo_right_now_the_goal/



> #BREAKING Fifty tanks entered Ukraine from Russia during peace talks: Kiev


https://twitter.com/AFP/status/565831227140481024



> Shelling of Lugansk tonight.


http://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/2vp099/shelling_of_lugansk_tonight/


----------



## McG

General Disorder said:
			
		

> Providing a service that assists in targeting is a hell of a long way from boots, helmets and the like.


Sure but, unless you are a Liberal or NDP in opposition, it is not Canada engaging in combat.


----------



## Marchog

I wonder how many hours the latest peace deal will last. 

Been there, done that, got the t-shirt.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian MoD's info-machine is still sorting out how much "ATO participants/combatants" are making in what appear to be top-up bonuses ....


> *Clarification on payment of additional bonuses*
> 
> Thursday, February 12. KYIV — The Order of the Minister of Defense of Ukraine approves the procedure and the terms of bonuses payment and the mechanism of certification of accomplishment of particular tasks during the ‘anti-terror’ operation (ATO).
> 
> *For direct participation in the ATO the servicemen will receive the full monthly wage* or UAH 3,000 (CDN $147)per month, whatever is greater. If a soldier participates in the ATO less than one calendar month the payment amount will be proportional to the number of participation days.
> 
> The bonus is also paid during hospital treatment of wounded in action.
> 
> *For successful accomplishment of combat task the unit will receive the additional bonus.* The results of combat task accomplishment are assessed on the basis of the document of higher command on combat task assignment, combat order of the unit leader, operations record book, and report document of a military unit on combat task accomplishment defining each serviceman participating in the accomplishment, as well as the ATO HQ order on evaluation of the combat task accomplishment results.
> 
> 
> *For direct participation in combat operations* after issue of combat order the servicemen will receive additional *bonus of UAH 1,000 (CDN $49) per each day of participation*.
> 
> *The additional bonus for destruction of the enemy’s equipment* is paid to a unit or particular persons on the basis of appropriate documents and photo and video evidences.
> 
> Additional bonuses are also paid to taken prisoners, missing in action or deceased servicemen. In such cases the bonus will be paid to serviceman family members.


I'm suuuuuuuuuuuuuure there's no room for abuse in that bit in yellow, right?


----------



## Kirkhill

General Disorder said:
			
		

> No.  Providing a service that assists in targeting is a hell of a long way from boots, helmets and the like.



Heh. If there is an issue then just put all of the Radarsat feed directly onto the net.  It becomes a public service.  The Russians could use it too...but they have their own stuff. Right?


----------



## McG

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-ceasefire-fighting-intensifies-in-day-before-pact-1.2957687

In the final hours prior to the cease fire, Ukraine rebels press offensives to maximize their controlled areas.  In the area of Debaltseve, media observe an increase of professional soldiers on the rebel side, and support of "Russian guests" is confirmed at one rebel checkpoint.


----------



## McG

http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/ceasefire-period-begins-in-ukraine-after-day-of-fighting-1.2236279

The timeline for the ceasefire has been met, but media have not yet confirmed that fighting has stopped.  Unnamed rebels have apparently declared that the ceasefire agreement leaves authority for them to continue offensive operations against Debaltseve.


----------



## McG

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31475744

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-ceasefire-poroshenko-orders-ceasefire-shelling-stops-in-line-with-pact-1.2957687 

Ukrainian forces have been ordered to cease fire and media report the silence of artillery in City of Donetsk


----------



## vonGarvin

The for.er leader of Ukraine was raked over the coals by the West for using tear gas and then rifle fire at Maidan. The current leader of Ukraine gives a presser wearing a military uniform,  and his forces have been using artillery, and gets a free pass from the West.

No wonder Putin is pissed...


(Yes, I understand that the rebels are no saints either. The whole region is a bloody mess...)


----------



## Kirkhill

General Disorder said:
			
		

> The for.er leader of Ukraine was raked over the coals by the West for using tear gas and then rifle fire at Maidan. The current leader of Ukraine gives a presser wearing a military uniform,  and his forces have been using artillery, and gets a free pass from the West.
> 
> No wonder Putin is pissed...
> 
> 
> (Yes, I understand that the rebels are no saints either. The whole region is a bloody mess...)



Sorry, Friend.  I'm afraid we have a major bone of contention.  I believe we passed the point of moral equivalency long ago.

The rules of the world are:

The will of the people is supreme.
The borders of nations are inviolate.

Except when 

The will of the people is NOT supreme.
The borders of nations are  NOT inviolate.

At that point all bets are off and we choose up sides according to our various predilections ..... including friendships.


----------



## MilEME09

Well here we are the latest map from the Ukrainian info machine, lets see how long this stays accurate though I suspect the rebels will use this time to regroup for another push like last time, while the government will dig in around key areas.

As of February 15, 12:00 EET.


----------



## McG

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukrainian-rebels-reject-ceasefire-in-town-where-fighting-rages-1.2958636

Rebels refuse to recognize ceasefire in Debaltseve and continue to press assault (directly assisted by Russian armed forces according to US).  Ukraine has declared it will not withdrawl heavy weapons while ceasefire is not being respected by other side, and EU applies new sanctions to Russia and rebels.

That did not take long to come undone.


----------



## MilEME09

Debaltseve is apparently now surrounded and is running low on ammo and supplies according to media reports. If the Ukrainians don't mount a operation to break the siege I fear they won't have any one to save in the city. Hope they realize the chance for diplomacy is gone now


----------



## Kirkhill

I don't think it is the Ukrainians that were expecting diplomacy to get them the results they were looking for.

Nor was it the Poles, the Lithuanians, Estonians or Latvians.  Nor even Don Cherry's favourite punching bag the Swedes.

The Ukrainians problem is with the pusillanimous, weak-kneed, glaikit scunners in France and Germany and in the White House.  Those daft bastards will have us in a proper war yet.


----------



## Cdn Blackshirt

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> Debaltseve is apparently now surrounded and is running low on ammo and supplies according to media reports. If the Ukrainians don't mount a operation to break the siege I fear they won't have any one to save in the city. Hope they realize the chance for diplomacy is gone now



It sounds like the government/military leadership in Kiev have abandoned their guys in Debaltseve.  

Not sure if they are doing it because they believe it will earn them political points with the West, but it's pathetic.....


----------



## Kirkhill

Here is an interesting bit of analysis - tracking the deployment of Multiple Rocket Launch Systems.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/17/russia-shelled-ukrainians-from-within-its-own-territory-says-study

Even if the conclusions of the study are set aside the visual evidence pertaining to the target zones strongly supports those that have always suggested that Stalin's Organs are more psychologically effective than physically effective.


----------



## Old Sweat

While the unnamed expert may be correct in stating that crater analysis of satellite imagery is scientifically unproven, the technique of crater analysis on the ground is mature and was practiced successfully by Canadian gunners as recently as Afghanistan. I suspect there are agencies that have the capability to apply some sophisticated technology to the imagery to work out accurate locations of firing positions. Mind you, modern weapon locating radar can give you a real time answer, if you have any in the theatre.


----------



## Kirkhill

Old Sweat said:
			
		

> While the unnamed expert may be correct in stating that crater analysis of satellite imagery is scientifically unproven, the technique of crater analysis on the ground is mature and was practiced successfully by Canadian gunners as recently as Afghanistan. I suspect there are agencies that have the capability to apply some sophisticated technology to the imagery to work out accurate locations of firing positions. *Mind you, modern weapon locating radar can give you a real time answer, if you have any in the theatre*.



On that subject - US Army training Ukrainians in the use of Light Weight Counter Mortar Locating Radar 




> Radar Mission to Ukraine Proves Challenging, Successful
> (Source: US Army; issued Feb 12, 2015)
> TOBYHANNA ARMY DEPOT, Pa. --- A team of Army personnel that included two depot technicians gave the Ukrainian army the ability to accurately track mortar rounds.
> 
> Lightweight counter mortar radars that backtrack incoming mortar rounds, enabling quick countermeasures recently were delivered to Ukraine. According to the Department of Defense website, the radar systems are the first to be delivered so U.S. Army military and civilian personnel can train members of the Ukrainian armed forces.
> 
> Team Tobyhanna arrived in-country and spent two weeks at the International Peace Keeping and Security Center in Yavoriv training Ukrainian soldiers to deploy, operate and troubleshoot the radars.
> 
> The Department of Defense's website said that the radar systems are part of the $118 million in equipment and training the United States has committed to assisting Ukraine's armed forces.
> 
> Ed Mickley, a depot spokesman, said the training included classroom instruction, hands-on equipment assembly and disassembly, tactical deployment and emplacement. The team taught a cadre of Ukraine army officers how to use the radars.
> 
> "The students had extensive hands-on training acquiring live mortar rounds and troubleshooting common equipment faults in the field," Mickley said. "Practical real-world experience was the focus of the radar training."
> 
> "The Ukrainians were very receptive to the training," said a U.S. Army radar trainer. "They had a very positive attitude and were eager to learn, knowing that the equipment would help prevent the deaths of fellow [Ukrainian] soldiers."
> 
> One of the depot technicians said the Ukrainians are very good soldiers, well educated, knew radars and had done their homework. "They were thrilled to get these radars," he said. "They asked a lot of questions and thoroughly tested the system's capabilities."
> 
> "Our initial work was to check three to make sure they functioned as teaching aids," said an electronics technician in the depot's Production Engineering Directorate. They had to modify the radars to accept 220 volt electrical power, the standard in Europe.
> 
> By the end of the training, the Ukrainian soldiers could set up the radar as fast as U.S. Soldiers.
> 
> "The most challenging part of this mission was the language barrier," Mickley said. "Several translators from the Ukraine Army and the American embassy helped a lot."
> 
> "Working with Tobyhanna personnel has always been very beneficial to me," said the Army radar trainer. "I look forward to learning as much as possible from the skilled technicians. This information ensures the training soldiers receive is accurate and current."
> 
> The trainer said that he is looking forward to working with Tobyhanna in the future and commends the employees on their knowledge of the systems.
> 
> Tobyhanna Army Depot is a recognized leader in providing world-class logistics support for command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, or C4ISR, systems throughout the Department of Defense. Tobyhanna's corporate philosophy, dedicated workforce and electronics expertise ensure the depot is the Joint C4ISR provider of choice for all branches of the armed forces and industry partners.
> 
> Tobyhanna's unparalleled capabilities include full-spectrum support for sustainment, overhaul and repair, fabrication and manufacturing, engineering design and development, systems integration, technology insertion, modification, and global field support to warfighters.
> 
> 
> About 3,100 personnel are employed at Tobyhanna, which is located in the Pocono Mountains of northeastern Pennsylvania. Tobyhanna Army Depot is part of the U.S. Army Communications-Electronics Command. Headquartered at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland, the command's mission is to research, develop, acquire, field and sustain communications, command, control computer, intelligence, electronic warfare and sensors capabilities for the armed forces.



http://www.defense-aerospace.com/article-view/release/161057/us-army-details-radar-mission-to-ukraine.html

Motivated students.


----------



## a_majoor

Western paralysis and inaction = a ceasefire that isn't, and a continuing reduction of our power and influence (and ability to influence) elsewhere:

http://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2015/02/17/the-trail-of-lies/?print=1



> *The Trail of Lies*
> Posted By Richard Fernandez On February 17, 2015 @ 1:02 am In Russia,Ukraine | 59 Comments
> 
> Imagine a ceasefire in First Indochinese War where the battle of Dien Bien Phu was allowed to continue.  Could it still be called a ceasefire? Could you call the suspension of hostilities between Ukraine and Russian a truce except for the continued reduction of the Debaltseve pocket? The New York Times’ Andrew Kramer [1] reports that a force of 8,000 Ukrainian troops, three fourths as large as the doomed French garrison, is surrounded and being ground down.  He speaks of the last road into the garrison.
> 
> The status of this stretch of potholed asphalt has become a sticking point in the cease-fire and threatens to unravel the deal. The separatists say their control of the road means they have the Ukrainians surrounded. President Petro O. Poroshenko of Ukraine has denied their claim, because conceding the point would force him either to negotiate for the release of the trapped soldiers or resume fighting to extricate them.
> 
> A dozen or so soldiers escaped on Sunday, and on Friday a small group reportedly managed to walk out through the fields. Otherwise, nobody has left the town since Thursday. …
> 
> Ilkka Kanerva, the president of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, issued a statement welcoming the general success of the cease-fire but deploring “the illegal separatists’ false and counterproductive insistence that the deal does not apply to Debaltseve, a government-held town.”
> 
> Still it’s a “ceasefire”. Words don’t change facts, except in politics. The facts are that Putin is winning the round and not about to stop punching simply because the Europeans have rung the bell. The physical reality is that he’s going for a knockout, stomping on his foe lying on the canvas.  The political problem for the West is how to keep calling it a truce.
> 
> Having apparently lost on the battlefield, Ukraine now will appeal for diplomatic pressure on Russia to prevail upon the separatists to open the road. But European leaders and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia were unable to solve the Debaltseve riddle during intense negotiations in Minsk last week, and it remains an open question whether they can now.
> 
> The Europeans have protested the military operations but the Russian forces have been unyielding. According to Reuters [2] the “rebels” have turned back European monitors trying to reach the pocket. Why are the Europeans desperately clinging to an empty phrase? Because words are important and nowhere more than in politics. Charles Krauthammer [3] observed that the Obama administration was similarly performing rhetorical somersaults in an effort to avoid describing [4] ISIS as an ideologically — or if you prefer, religiously — motivated group.  Call them just folks; call them random guys.  Call them anything but who they are.
> 
> “The ideology of ISIS is clearly supremacist,” said Krauthammer on Monday’s Special Report, “in the sense that anybody who is not Islamic in their understanding is to be either enslaved or eradicated. This is a genocidal movement. You kill Christians, you kill Jews, you kill Yazidis (but you may in certain circumstances enslave them). That’s what we’re up against, and we have an administration that will not even admit that there’s a religious basis underlying what’s going on.”
> 
> That refusal is alarming, said Krauthammer: “Churchill saved England and civilization because in 1940 he was able to enlist the English language, and he put it to work on behalf of civilization. What this administration is doing is precisely the opposite. It’s sort of deconstructing any resistance with its refusal to acknowledge the obvious.”
> 
> But in fairness to both the Obama administration and the Franco-Germans, their spokesmen are torturing the language for a reason.  They are doing it to maintain a facade as long as they are able; to avoid the use of certain terms, which once uttered, would imply the need for action. Words like “war” or “invasion” for instance, must be eschewed at all costs.  For these dread phrases, once officially spoken, would make even the dumbest voter sit up and realize that something was wrong. Using the right words would force the politicians to admit to the actual situation and compel them to act — which is precisely what they don’t to do.
> 
> Both Obama and Merkel are in the position of a cuckolded husband who pauses at a bedroom door, knowing what he will find on the other side and yet reluctant to cross the threshold for fear of having to do something once the situation becomes undeniable. To avoid conflict he pauses at the doorway to give himself the benefit of the doubt. Unfortunately the sounds emanating from within grow ever more unmistakable and the only question is not if, but when the truth must be faced.
> 
> Both the Obama administration and the Franco-Germans are as trapped as the Ukrainians in Debaltseve.  The Ukrainian troops are surrounded by the Russian troops, while the Western leaders are imprisoned by their own lies.  The soldiers are invested by encroaching lines.  The statesmen are trapped in a high wall of political bricks comprised of their own falsehoods. Having led their nations forward with false assurances of safety, both the EU leaders and the Obama administration are struggling to find an escape without admitting error.
> 
> They will not find it easy.  Both cornered groups are hoping the cavalry will arrive before the last cup of water runs out.  The soldiers are hoping for the European monitors to ride to the rescue, while  Merkel and Hollande for their part must also be looking for a miracle.  Maybe Putin will relent.  As for Obama, he must be praying as he has never prayed before that ISIS will have a change of heart.
> 
> The former head of Britain’s MI6 Sir John Sawers [5] has publicly warned that the West is in proximate danger of sliding into conflict with Russia.  It’s an astonishing situation to be in only a comparatively short time since the Fall of the Berlin Wall and only a few years since Obama was actually trying to “reset” with the Kremlin.
> 
> “Sanctions on Russia are imposing costs. But the Ukraine crisis is no longer just about Ukraine. It’s now a much bigger, more dangerous crisis, between Russia and Western countries, about values and order in Europe,” he said.
> 
> Western countries could “take on Moscow” by providing weapons to Ukraine so it can defend itself and introducing more stringent sanctions, he said.
> 
> But Sir John warned Russian President Vladimir Putin was likely to respond.
> 
> “As long as Mr Putin sees the issue in terms of Russia’s own security he will be prepared to go further than us. So he would respond with further escalation on the ground. Perhaps cyber attacks against us.
> 
> “We have thousands of deaths in Ukraine. We could start to get tens of thousands, then what?”
> 
> Eight thousand surrendered troops is a long way toward that “then what?” Well since Charles Krauthammer brought Winston Churchill up, we might as well quote him on the point. For he too wondered how the statesmen of his day could have turned an unbeatable hand into a loss. Well might we also ask ourselves that identical question. What we did do with the legacy of Ronald Reagan?
> 
> For five years I have talked to the House on these matters, not with very great success. I have watched this famous island descending incontinently, fecklessly the stairway which leads to a dark gulf. It is a fine broad stairway at the beginning, but after a bit the. carpet ends. A little further on there are. only flagstones, and a little further on still these break beneath your feet. Look back over the last five years. It is true that great mistakes were made in the years immediately after the War. At Locarno we laid the foundation from which a great forward movement could have been made. Look back upon the last five years, since, that is to say, Germany began to rearm in earnest and openly to seek revenge. If we study the history of Rome and Carthage, we can understand what happened and why. It is not difficult to understand and form an intelligent view about the three Punic Wars; but if mortal catastrophe should overtake the British nation and the British Empire, historians a thousand years hence will still be baffled by the mystery of our affairs. They will never understand how it was that a victorious nation, with everything in hand, suffered themselves to be brought low and to cast away all that they had gained by measureless sacrifice and absolute victory — ” gone with the wind.”
> 
> Simple. Our genius leaders judged it as tainted and threw it away.


----------



## McG

And Canada follows the EU with new sanctions against Russia and rebels.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-conflict-canada-issues-new-sanctions-1.2961110


----------



## MilEME09

interesting tweet by the Ukrainians today



> Russia violates Minsk II. Insurgents detained a group of RU soldiers who shelled Donetsk. Provokes both Ukraine and insurgents



Another layer to the fighting, I wonder if its true though, and if so can incidents like these provoke the rebels to revolt against their russian over lords


----------



## The Bread Guy

A few maps from all sides - take all with a grain of salt ....


----------



## McG

The Ukraine forces are pulling out of Debaltseve.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/ukraine-government-troops-retreating-from-debaltseve-1.2241267


----------



## The Bread Guy

MCG said:
			
		

> The Ukraine forces are pulling out of Debaltseve.
> 
> http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/ukraine-government-troops-retreating-from-debaltseve-1.2241267


If you believe the UKR president (in Ukrainian), only just a bit  ;D


> Already I can announce that this morning the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the National Guard completed the planned and organized withdrawal of forces from Debaltsevo. We can say that even as of now got 80% of the parts. We expect two columns. Came fighters 128 Brigade, units of the 30th Brigade, the rest of the 25th and 40th Battalion, Special Forces, (National Guard) police ....


Google English version of Prez's statement here


----------



## McG

Ukraine asks for UN Peacekeepers.  

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31527414

If I remember from a few months back, the Russians already have their vehicles painted for the job.  I am sure they would be happy to race in under that mandate and forcibly evict Ukraine forces from ground they securely occupy yet has really been in rebel control since prior to the cease fire.


----------



## MilEME09

Look how well that worked in Georgia, if Ukraine can survive a few months, I predict the fall out of the latest events will lead to changes in leadership and more action from Ukraine


----------



## vonGarvin

MCG said:
			
		

> If I remember from a few months back, the Russians already have their vehicles painted for the job.  I am sure they would be happy to race in under that mandate and forcibly evict Ukraine forces from ground they securely occupy yet has really been in rebel control since prior to the cease fire.



They would be just as legitimate as us if they were to go in as "Peacekeepers".


So, the solution (I believe) if there were to be a peacekeeping force would be for a Third Party (an actual third party) with no vested interest in the region.  If such a third party could not be found, then just as was in Kosovo, "We" and "They" could go in as one big happy family.


----------



## MilEME09

Technoviking said:
			
		

> They would be just as legitimate as us if they were to go in as "Peacekeepers".
> 
> 
> So, the solution (I believe) if there were to be a peacekeeping force would be for a Third Party (an actual third party) with no vested interest in the region.  If such a third party could not be found, then just as was in Kosovo, "We" and "They" could go in as one big happy family.



So India perhaps? or the chinese? both want to keep good relations with the west and Russia


----------



## The Bread Guy

You know it's over when the fat lady sings ....


> President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko has noted that he had made a decision on the withdrawal of troops from Debaltseve to save lives of the Ukrainian servicemen.
> 
> "Militaries have done their job. They have demonstrated to the world that Ukraine strictly complies with peaceful agreements. Motivation of my decision  was to save lives of the Ukrainian soldiers and hold an operation that preserves the best potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," the President noted at the NSDC meeting after his return from the ATO area.
> 
> The Head of State has informed that earlier, at 13:00, he had ordered to coordinate the operation on the planned pullback of the Ukrainian troops from Debaltseve. The OSCE was informed that it was done due to the absence of opportunity for the OSCE to verify the withdrawal of heavy weaponry and compliance with of the ceasefire regime.
> 
> The international partners have also been informed about this decision. The President has noted that USA, Germany, France, EU and NATO had clearly supported the position of Ukraine and recognized that Ukraine had strictly complied with the Minsk agreements whereas the disruption of the peace process was the responsibility of Russia and Russian-backed militants.
> 
> "It was a difficult yet decent operation, which was carried out at night under the powerful shelling of Russian artillery," the President informed. "We have demonstrated that there was no encirclement, our troops were able to fulfill the operation and leave Debaltseve," the Head of State noted ....



Latest maps attached - note the line of APC markers in the Debeltseve map threading their way back from red to blue country.

More on the peacekeepers, and martial law, also from the UKR pres:


> The NSDC chaired by the President has made a decision to request the UN regarding the sending of the peacekeeping mission to Ukraine, which will act under the mandate of the UN Security Council.
> 
> Opening the session, the Head of State has informed that the given issue had already been elaborated pursuant to his instruction. “The best format for us is the police mission of the EU. It will be the most efficient guarantor of security in the situation when the word of peace is not observed either by Russia or those who are supported by it”.
> 
> Petro Poroshenko has informed that in the course of the Minsk agreements, he had previously discussed the given issue with Presidents of France and Russia, as well as with the Chancellor of Germany, assuming that the Minsk agreements may not be fulfilled. The President has informed that official consultations that may ensure peace would begin.
> 
> Besides, the NSDC has adopted the amendments to the Law on martial law elaborated pursuant to the instruction of the President. These amendments take into account the experience and peculiarities of the hybrid war. The President hopes that the NSDC and the Parliament will support those amendments. “We have to be ready to defend the state,” Petro Poroshenko noted ....





			
				Technoviking said:
			
		

> So, the solution (I believe) if there were to be a peacekeeping force would be for a Third Party (an actual third party) with no vested interest in the region.


Agreed, even if that last bit in yellow could make it tough to find participant countries.


----------



## Kirkhill

Technoviking said:
			
		

> They would be just as legitimate as us if they were to go in as "Peacekeepers".
> 
> 
> So, the solution (I believe) if there were to be a peacekeeping force would be for a Third Party (an actual third party) with no vested interest in the region.  If such a third party could not be found, then just as was in Kosovo, "We" and "They" could go in as one big happy family.



For a change we're on the same page.  

The problem with that region is that there is no one on the Eurasian continent that does not have a vested interest in controlling that turf.  And as far as the "Easterners" are considered we in the Americas are just transplanted "Westerners".

The misfortune of both the Russians and the Ukrainians is to live on accessible, indefensible ground that is extraordinarily rich in agricultural and mineral resources.


----------



## tomahawk6

If there is a peacekeeping force it should come from the EU and offer Putin a few billion under the table to let the Ukraine go.It turns out that he is a billionaire now.


----------



## McG

Technoviking said:
			
		

> So, the solution (I believe) if there were to be a peacekeeping force would be for a Third Party (an actual third party) with no vested interest in the region.  If such a third party could not be found, then just as was in Kosovo, "We" and "They" could go in as one big happy family.


Agreed.  



			
				tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> If there is a peacekeeping force it should come from the EU ...


Neither NATO nor Russia could provide a UN force without making the problem worse.  That does not leave many options if you want a force drawn from the EU.


----------



## Kirkhill

Best case scenario is to repeat Berlin 1945-1989 ....... There was a "peacekeeping" force of sorts in place then.  The difference between there and then and here and now is, presumably, the "Easterners" want to be behind the wall. Or is it that they want the "Westerners" behind the wall? Or maybe it is the "Westerners" want the "Easterners" behind the wall......

O bugger it.  I hate it when Monty Python starts to sound like the heights of logic....

A wall is needed.  They need to be on one side.  We need to be on the other.


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> Best case scenario is to repeat Berlin 1945-1989 ....... There was a "peacekeeping" force of sorts in place then.  The difference between there and then and here and now is, presumably, the "Easterners" want to be behind the wall. Or is it that they want the "Westerners" behind the wall? Or maybe it is the "Westerners" want the "Easterners" behind the wall......
> 
> O bugger it.  I hate it when Monty Python starts to sound like the heights of logic....
> 
> A wall is needed.  They need to be on one side.  We need to be on the other.



My fear is that wall might be the Dnieper River, with the two states being Ukraine and New Russia, with Kiev on the front line.


----------



## Kirkhill

That is a real fear.  And a real possible outcome.  Steps should be taken to minimize the possibility of that occurring.

However, in the event that it does occur I would remind that Berlin used to be the front line - and was for 44 years.  The Cold War used to be a fact of life - a permanent feature of my life - but the Wall came down 26 years ago. In 2033 it will be 44 years since the Wall came down.  

The Cold War left scars but Europe survived (after a fashion).

The thing is, I don't think Vlad can survive another Wall.  He is no Joseph Stalin, as much as he wants to be.  The Russians are not all Stalin era pensioners.  There is a good proportion of Russians that don't support their sons and their classmates dying for the Greater Glory of the Oligarchs - and they have seen what is possible.  The existence of Georgia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine demonstrates that Vlad can't control everything.

There is the stink of Potemkin around this whole exercise.

Vlad is a creature of the KGB, an organization dedicated to deception.  His function in Germany was to make friends in order to sow doubt, disorder and chaos among the enemies of Russia.

He is working hard at recreating/maintaining the image of the Russian Behemoth,  and many folks are buying it.

But...

In terms of conventional forces (fortunately reasonably well defined the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty, even though Vladimir abrogated the treaty 4 years ago) most of his available stock is Cold War vintage - not just in design but in fact.  And it has not be stored in climate conditioned warehouses, or maintained by companies dedicated to keeping them operating, or upgraded.  It does not have the companies with those skills (which is why it was inviting the French to show them how to build modern ships, the Italians to build modern helicopters and the Swedes (Volvo) to build modern Tanks and APCs).  

Nor does it have the millions of conscripts ready to suck up bullets while yelling Oorah Stalino.

What Vlad does have is:

A restive population of 144 million scattered over a land area of 17 mio km2 or almost twice the size of Canada and only 186,000 Interior Troops to control them.  Chechenya and the Caucasus has not stopped festering. Nor has Siberia, nor Tatarstan, nor Kaliningrad, nor Transdniestria - and now Crimea.

A perimeter of 60,000 km (20,000 land and 40,000 sea) with enemies or uncertain allies on all sides and the following troops available to hold it.

766,000 Regulars made up of 
- 322,000 Ground Troops (down from 2 mio in 1985)
- 35,000 Airborne Troops
- 10,000 Naval Infantry
- 10 to 15,000 GRU (little green men)
- the 186,000 Interior Troops mentioned above
- the remainder are Air Forces and Navy.

The "Go To" Troops are the GRU, Naval Infantry and the Airborne and those are being worn down in Ukraine - if not in numbers then certainly morale if reported letters and phonecalls to Mothers are to be believed.  The efforts to reduce the load by Volunteering conscripts are only making matters worse faster.

In terms of weaponry Global Security lists the following

Tanks - 21,280 
which includes 1200 T54/55s, 2000 T62s, 4300 T64s and 9700 T72s - all of which were obsolete when I was in the Highlanders and which can be penetrated by a LAVs 25mm.  That leaves 4500 T80s and 150 T90s.  The tanks in Ukraine seem to be T72s and earlier models with added Explosive Reactive Armour bolted on.

AFVs-25,975
which includes 6000 wheeled BTRs dating all the way back to the BTR 50 and including BTR 60s, 70s, 80s and 152s.
Also included are 2000 BRDM-2s and 700 BRM-1Ks
That leaves 12700 BMPs - of all generations (1 to 3), 1800 of the airborne version (BMD 1 to 3) and 150 vintage PT76 recce tanks as well as 4800 MT-LBs.

Not many AFVs seem to feature in Ukraine.

Armoured forces generally seem to be husbanded and used in battle groups, 4 or 5 at a time, whenever Vladimir wants to push the Ukrainians back.  They do not stay in Donbas but seem to "fire and retire".

The one branch that the Russians can continue to rely on is the Artillery.  Even an old gun can shoot, particularly if one is not overly concerned about accuracy.  And that is particularly true of the Rocket Artillery.  Old launchers can fire new rockets to extended ranges quite easily.  If you have enough launchers and rockets then you don't have to worry about accuracy.  And lots of inaccurate rocket exchanges seems to be a defining characteristic of Donbas fighting.

Russia has 4700 Self Propelled Mortars, Guns and Howitzers  and another 10,000 towed variants, that range in calibers from 240mm to 122mm and include 3000 100mm Anti Tank Guns.  The vintages date all the way back to 1937 and not all guns can fire all ammunition types.

On the rocket front Russia has 100x 300mm Smerch launchers, 675x 220mm Uragans, 1800x 122mm Grads and even a few old Katyushas.

In short, Vlad can put up a good display for a short time in a few places but if he was ever pressed on all his borders concurrently, while trying to keep his internal enemies in check, he would have a very hard time of it indeed.

The difference between Vlad and Potemkin, of course, is the threat of the Mushroom Cloud.   Which is why it serves Vlad's interests to be thought mad - mad enough to use it.  Just the way Reagan convinced the Russians that he might just be mad enough to use it as well.

So, is Vlad mad?  Or is he bluffing?


http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/army-equipment.htm
http://mdb.cast.ru/mdb/1-2014/item4/article2/


----------



## MilEME09

If given time both sides will begin pumping modern equipment into the battle, Ukrainian BMP-4's have been spotted in small amounts, and I imagine countries like Poland, and Georgia might be helping to get war stocks of tanks and AFV's back into action and upgraded. The problem is I think to really go on the offensive I think the government needs control of the air. Problem is they don't have the SEAD ability to deal with all the powerful AA systems the rebels have to retake the air.


----------



## Altair

The situation in Ukraine is perfect for Vladimir Putin. A bunch of weak Western leaders so afraid of conflict that they bend time and time again to unacceptable behaviour. Looking back in history there have been similar concessions. Crimea=Austria. Eastern Ukraine = sudetenland. All for a "peace of our time" 

This could have been nipped in the bud over a year ago in one of three ways. a strong Western leader looking Putin in the eyes and saying that if this continues there will be war. Preferably the USA,  but a Britain or France would have the military power to get the Russians to back off.  For all those who say that it's not worth going to war over the Ukraine,  well,  the same applies to Russia. 

Another would be to start bombing the hell out of those separatist "rebels". Nobody negotiated  with isil before bombing them. Same standard should have applied to the Russians in Ukraine. A few weeks of bombing would have decimated the rebel ranks and given Putin a reason to think twice about sending Russians soldiers over the border to fight. 

The least invasive option to stop,  or at least slow down Putin would  be to flood Ukraine with arms. Make the Russians pay a high price for every action they take. Right now they can get away with a few hundred dead a year. If that were thousands putin might actually adhere to a ceasefire. 

I cannot imagine a weaker group of leaders to be leading the West through this crisis. Obama completely does not care and is leaving it up to Europe. Hollande and Merkel seem  to think that peace should look like  a Russia controlled Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. I wonder what they will think when Mariupol falls next week.


----------



## CougarKing

Altair said:
			
		

> The situation in Ukraine is perfect for Vladimir Putin. A bunch of weak Western leaders so afraid of conflict that they bend time and time again to unacceptable behaviour. Looking back in history there have been similar concessions. Crimea=Austria. Eastern Ukraine = sudetenland. All for a "peace of our time"



Altair, 

If you're going to compare historic parallels, at least get them right. Georgia(South Ossetia)= Hitler's "Auchluss" of Austria, while Eastern Ukraine and Crimea= Sudetenland. 

Some here may not necessarily agree on those parallels though.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> Altair,
> 
> If you're going to compare historic parallels, at least get them right. Georgia(South Ossetia)= Hitler's Auchluss of Austria, while Eastern Ukraine and Crimea= Sudetenland.
> 
> Some here may not necessarily agree on those parallels though.



So in any case, how long until Poland get invaded again?


----------



## MilEME09

rmc_wannabe said:
			
		

> So in any case, how long until Poland get invaded again?



If history is any tell, it will be during or just after the Olympics when Putin makes his move, he did for Georgia, and he did in Ukraine


----------



## vonGarvin

If those parallels are true, then Maidan was what? The burning of the Reichstag? 

Of course, those parallels aren't valid. Remember that before this whole thing started, Russia had "Sovereign Base Areas" in Sevastopol and Simferapol. Once the coup d'état was complete in Kyiv, then stiffening the Russian presence in those areas was vital for Russia to maintain its strategically vital ability to influence world politics through those bases.

As for the people of Crimea: they saw a suddenly hostile government in Kyiv throw out the results of the previous election through force. Yes, the government failed to keep a campaign promise; however, if that were the reason to toss out the incumbent through violence, then Washington would be an ash heap and Obama would be either dead or in exile. The worst part for the Crimeans is the the West supported Maidan through words, if not deeds. The riots and violence was called "democracy in action", but the vote by Crimeans (assessed as fair by any reasonable standard by those who monitored it, such as the Press Corps from Europe) was declared invalid by the West...

The rest is just a result of East vs West cold war politics, mostly (bot not uniquely) agitated by the West. 

No matter the "would have/should have" statements. The keen ought to be saying "now what?"

They have stopped.fighting...for now. We (the West) ought to stop pointing fingers at Putin and instead work with him to end this.  He can influence the rebels, and we can influence Kyiv. The Donbas is lost to Kyiv. The people there ought to either move out and join Russia the old fashioned way: by foot.  Or allow the people to stay and have a politic arrangement with Kyiv to protect their unique identity.  Or whatever.

If not, this will escalate out of control, and say what you will, but Russia has the means to deal NATO a very serious and grievous blow, if not a fatal one.

Write Putin off as a sort of modern day Hitler wannabe if you will, but you do so at your own peril.


----------



## Kirkhill

Technoviking said:
			
		

> .....and say what you will, but Russia NATO  has the means to deal NATO Russia/Moscow/Putin a very serious and grievous blow, if not a fatal one.
> ......



I do not disagree that Putin in Moscow is dangerous.  I only disagree that he will become less dangerous if we leave him alone.

The problem with Putin is that he is paranoid.  But even paranoiacs have enemies - and Putin has plenty. Take a look at first map below.  Every one of those yellow pins, outside of Ukraine, represents a capital city of a country or region that is inimical to Moscow.  It either wants to leave Moscow's orbit, has left and doesn't want to rejoin, or fears being swept up by Moscow.

If he can't continue to give the impression of at least driving the agenda, if not being in control, he loses control and probably his life.

Putin's first concern is with retaining control of the immediate regions south and east of Moscow.  If he can't hang onto the Caucasus, that salient south of the Volga Bend and threatened on its flanks by a canny Kazakhstan and a turbulent Ukraine then the next "domino" to fall is likely to be the collection of Tatar dominated regions between Moscow and the Urals.  At which point Moscow is reduced to the Duchy of Moscow and Ivan, Peter and Katherine need never have bothered.

In the Caucasus, in addition to the Georgians and Chechens, Vlad faces calls for separation, or at least autonomy, from Ingushetians, Alanians, Circassians, Ossetians, Kalmykians and Abkhazians. Even the Cossacks, traditionally seen as Moscow's guarantors in the south, the Don, Kuban and Terek Hordes have all expressed a desire for autonomy. The Don Horde in particular is interesting because it is centred on Rostov, the launching point for Vlad's Ukrainian operations.

Vlad is weak. He is not strong. It is his weakness that makes him dangerous. Doing nothing is not going to make him less dangerous.

I agree that doing something is also likely to be dangerous but......


----------



## a_majoor

Keeping the Russian people pumped up for the conflict. Given the deteriorating economic climate, I think we will see a lot more of these rallies and other things (television specials, "patriotic" movies, cultural events etc.) to keep the population in check and heading in the "right" direction:

http://news.yahoo.com/pro-kremlin-demo-vows-no-maidan-russia-131139803.html



> *40,000 attend Moscow pro-Putin rally*
> By Anna Smolchenko
> 23 hours ago
> 
> Moscow (AFP) - Tens of thousands of strongman Vladimir Putin's supporters rallied Saturday near the Kremlin walls, a year after protests in neighbouring Ukraine led to the fall of its pro-Russian president.
> 
> The demonstrators, some dressed in fatigues, waved Russian flags and many sported the black and orange St George ribbon, a symbol of victory over Nazi Germany that pro-Russian Ukrainian separatists have adopted as their badge of honour.
> 
> Police said up to 40,000 people turned out with around 1,000 attending a similar rally in the second city of Saint Petersburg. Critics claimed many were paid to attend or bussed in.
> 
> "Yankee go home and take the Maidan with you," read one massive banner referring to Ukraine's pro-Western uprising that came to be known as the Maidan protests.
> 
> "We don't need Western ideology and gay parades," said another placard, while a column of Cossacks brandished a banner reading "The Maidan is a disease. We will treat it."
> 
> Established early this year, the umbrella movement that organised the rally, Anti-Maidan, includes several groups representing bikers, Cossacks, athletes and Russian veterans of the Afghan and Chechen wars, some of whom have fought alongside rebels in eastern Ukraine.
> 
> Members employed highly emotive, aggressive language to rouse the crowd at the apparently choreographed event in support of Putin, who has accused the West of stirring the Ukraine unrest.
> 
> "I am calling on you to rally around the Russian president at a time when all of Russia's enemies are mobilising," Alexander Zaldostanov, the leather-clad leader of biker gang the Night Wolves, told the rally.
> 
> One organiser, Nikolai Starikov, speaking from the stage, called the Kiev protests "a smile of an American ambassador" and an "embryo of Goebbels," referring to Hitler's propaganda minister.
> 
> "A Maidan will not take place in Russia," announced singer Victoria Tsyganova, dressed in a red coat and red kerchief.
> 
> - 'Yankee go home' -
> 
> The instantly recognisable strains of "The Holy War", a famous WWII-era song, emanated from loudspeakers.
> 
> A worker from UralVagonZavod, a maker of battle tanks in the Urals -- which publicly supported Putin during the height of winter protests in 2011-2012 -- accused the opposition of betraying Russia reeling from the effects of the economic crisis and Western sanctions.
> 
> "Now that the country is going through hardships the opposition are rubbing their hands," said Alexei Balyberdin.
> 
> "I fully support Putin's policies," said a 37-year-old demonstrator, Ivan Blagoi in St Petersburg. "I don't want the collapse of the country and a civil war brought on in Ukraine by the Maidan."
> 
> Critics say the Moscow event was organised with the help from authorities, with many participants brought in on buses or paid to be there. Organisers deny the claims.
> 
> After the Kiev uprising ousted Kremlin-backed president Viktor Yanukovych last February, Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine and has since backed a separatist insurgency in the east of the country.
> 
> Starikov said the march was the movement's first major rally aimed at discouraging the pro-Western opposition from plotting a coup in Russia.
> 
> "Don't even try. Don't make any attempts to rock the boat in Russia," he said in televised remarks.
> 
> State television gave ample coverage to Saturday's event and said similar rallies had been held across the country.
> 
> - 'I'll be back' -
> 
> The opposition plans a protest on March 1 against the Ukraine conflict as well as Russia's economic crisis, which has been exacerbated by Western sanctions over Moscow's support for the separatists.
> 
> Earlier this week a court jailed top opposition activist Alexei Navalny for two weeks in a move that will most likely prevent him from leading next weekend's rally.
> 
> The protest is set to take place in southeastern Moscow, after authorities denied permission for the activists to march through the city centre.
> 
> Putin remains Russia's most popular politician despite hardships brought on by the economic crisis and Western sanctions.
> 
> Ukraine's ousted leader Yanukovych, who lives in Russia sheltered from prosecution back at home, said he would like to return to his country as soon as he can.
> 
> "I'll be back and will do everything in my power to make life easier in Ukraine," he told Russia's Channel One in an excerpt of interview which will be broadcast in its entirety on Monday.


----------



## vonGarvin

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> The problem with Putin Russians is that he is they are paranoid.



You're quite right.  And looking at the map of "creeping NATO", he has some grounds, right or wrong, to think so.  Add to this our automatic support for Maidan (which was all about an economic deal with the EU after all), and old Vlad is mad.  






And you're right, NATO has the means to deal Russia a mortal blow as well.  But....that comes practically only in this form:





And from practically only the USA.  Given all the US's problems with ISIS, etc, I'm not certain that they are ready to make good on anything more than targeted sanctions, etc.

Meanwhile, Donetsk burns as the US readies for the Oscars....


----------



## Kirkhill

Meanwhile - in Kharkiv



> Ukraine Today: Ukraine Kharkiv deadly terror attack; at least three killed at Euromaidan anniversary peace march (VIDEO)


Link

While the Russians say the rebels are ready to pull back their heavy weapons



> Ukraine Today: East Ukraine heavy weapons pullback; Russian general says militants ready to withdraw (VIDEO)


Link

Prior to reassignment to Mariupol?? 



> Near Mariupol, Ukraine soldiers embittered by orders not allowing them to return Russian fire


LInk

And Bloomberg speculates on the speed of any NATO response in the Baltic area.



> Bloomberg: NATO's response to Putin's odd war games won't be fast


Link


----------



## Kirkhill

Technoviking said:
			
		

> You're quite right.  And looking at the map of "creeping NATO", he has some grounds, right or wrong, to think so.  Add to this our automatic support for Maidan (which was all about an economic deal with the EU after all), and old Vlad is mad.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And you're right, NATO has the means to deal Russia a mortal blow as well.  But....that comes practically only in this form:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And from practically only the USA.  Given all the US's problems with ISIS, etc, I'm not certain that they are ready to make good on anything more than targeted sanctions, etc.
> 
> Meanwhile, Donetsk burns as the US readies for the Oscars....



Actually, mad or not is immaterial, I agree the risk is of the mushroom cloud but my expectation is that it wouldn't take much to cause Vlad's carefully constructed Potemkin Village to be exposed for what it is.  In which case the concern is that Vlad would be the first to punch that particular button.  And again - I agree that it is a legitimate concern.

So we have to play Vlad by his own rules and keep the game unofficial and make his life as miserable as he is making ours.  We have lots of scope for action in that regards - just look at the range of useful "allies" in his backyard - starting with the Ukrainians but including the Kazakhs, Tatars, Balts, Poles and Prussians. 

Unfortunately I have to agree with your final point - 






Link to the world's greatest motivational speech


----------



## Kirkhill

But on the off-chance it does matter -

Maybe we should be planning for more Maidans and not less.  Backfoot Vlad by supporting little fires all over his turf, all at the same time, or in other words, on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of 1968, do the same to him that his teachers did to us.  Co-ordinated insurrections have happened before.  They can happen again. In addition to 1968 there were the risings of 1832 and 1848.  

Do you think Vlad would survive if he had a year like the Americans had in 1968, or the French?


----------



## cupper

Putin may need to continue on the path he is on with Ukraine for the simple point of deflecting attention from the domestic situation. 

And there is precedence for starting conflicts to maintain power, or keep certain things from being looked at too closely. The Chechen Wars are two examples that stand out.

They were able to justify putting off elections under the guise of being in a state of war, to allow Putin to gain some popular support in his initial run for the Presidency to replace Yeltsin. By starting the war in Chechenia, it kept Yeltsin's group in control and prevented opposition groups from gaining the Presidency, and keeping everyone safe from investigation and prosecution. As PM, Putin was able to claim the war as the reason for postponing elections, holding power for the Yeltsin cabal long enough for Putin to gain enough public recognition to make him a viable candidate to replace Yeltsin, and keep the cabal safe from prying eyes.

Putin has a lot of zombies in the closet (skeletons just don't measure up to the level of what he has been suspected of) that if released will come looking to feed, and Putin will be the sacrifice to save the people who he was put in place to protect in the first place.


----------



## vonGarvin

cupper said:
			
		

> Putin may need to continue on the path he is on with Ukraine for the simple point of deflecting attention from the domestic situation.


Same goes for Kyiv.  Like it or not, Kyiv is heavily dependent on Moscow for its economic health.  Ironically, the more we pressure Moscow, the worse it hurts Kyiv.

This article from earlier this month (article is by Forbes) explains how bad it is in Ukraine, economically speaking.

Link



> It might be inconvenient to note, but Russia is positively crucial to Ukraine’s economy not merely as a source of raw materials and energy but as a destination for industrial production that would otherwise be unable to find willing customers. According to Ukrainian government data, Russia accounted for roughly a quarter of the country’s total foreign trade. The equivalent figure from the Russian side? Somewhere between 6 and 7%. Given that reality, Russia’s leverage over Ukraine is obviously much greater that Ukraine’s leverage over Russia.


----------



## cupper

Technoviking said:
			
		

> Same goes for Kyiv.  Like it or not, Kyiv is heavily dependent on Moscow for its economic health.  Ironically, the more we pressure Moscow, the worse it hurts Kyiv.
> 
> This article from earlier this month (article is by Forbes) explains how bad it is in Ukraine, economically speaking.
> 
> Link



And it's not like the Euro Zone is going to be of any help economically, considering the problems they are dealing with in that questionable experiment.


PS: Welcome back TV. That General Disorder guy was a poor substitute.


----------



## vonGarvin

cupper said:
			
		

> PS: Welcome back TV. That General Disorder guy was a poor substitute.


Ha!  Thanks


Actually, I think I have a solution to the whole mess: boot Greece out of the Eurozone and give them to Russia!  After all, Saint Cyril gave the slavs their alphabet, so why not give them the whole damned country?


----------



## SeaKingTacco

Not bad...not bad....


----------



## MilEME09

government map as of today Feb 22







Seems all is calm on the northern front, then again things have been quiet with the LPR for awhile, everyone is focused on the DPR and the south. It also continues to reinforce my view that if major fighting breaks out again the government needs to hold the line in Donetsk, while going on the offensive in Luhansk


----------



## Retired AF Guy

cupper said:
			
		

> And it's not like the Euro Zone is going to be of any help economically, considering the problems they are dealing with in that questionable experiment.



Correct me if I'm wrong, but I seem to remember a while back that the IMF was promising to give Ukraine a few billion??


----------



## cupper

Retired AF Guy said:
			
		

> Correct me if I'm wrong, but I seem to remember a while back that the IMF was promising to give Ukraine a few billion??



But the IMF is not the Eurozone, and although both may deny it, the US has a big say in IMF policy decisions.


----------



## Cdn Blackshirt

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> government map as of today Feb 22
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Seems all is calm on the northern front, then again things have been quiet with the LPR for awhile, everyone is focused on the DPR and the south. It also continues to reinforce my view that if major fighting breaks out again the government needs to hold the line in Donetsk, while going on the offensive in Luhansk



I'm not sure I agree with that.

If the LNR is abiding by the peace agreement, I think leaving them alone makes a lot of sense.

On the other hand where the DNR violates the terms of the agreement, Kiev should take the gloves off.


M.


----------



## MilEME09

Well I did say if majopr fighting breaks out, which includes the north, but yes if the DPR keeps up with violations, leave Luhansk alone, maybe even have a settlement with Luhansk. If Ukraine deals with the two regions pro-russian groups individually they might be able to pull Luhansk back into Ukraine. Such a major shift in the front line would cause the DPR major problems. Maybe ukraine could even bring Luhansk's military forces under its own command (which could heavily expose Russia's influence).


----------



## Kirkhill

My sense is that Rostov is directing the military activity and that it can only sustain a short assault on one axis at a time.  Generally speaking the locals are allowed to play soldiers and maintain a ground-level of harassing activity which prompts Kiev to try and tidy up the mess with an assault.  Like Rostov, and likely even moreso, they can not sustain a continuous advance and are forced to concentrate what forces they have at their disposal.  They initially have success against the locals at which point Rostov steps in and sends a brigade into the area, backed by tons of artillery rockets and takes the head off the Ukrainians.  This has the effect of removing the most motivated troops from the Ukrainian order of battle and convincing the general populace, on both sides of the line, that Kiev is not up to the task.

Kiev needs the tools to knock those MLRS units out of the game - Iron Dome, or something like it, perhaps and counter battery systems - and effective anti-tank systems.

I am attaching a link to a 2010 document that I have yet to read fully, I just found it recently, but on first review I think it is well worth reading if you haven't already.

It describes the reforms to that date in the Russian Army from the Russian viewpoint.  As interesting as the plans are the tale of all of the attempted reforms is even more illuminating.  It also shows that even the Russians are not immune from the same problems as us in Canada or as the Americans when it comes to Command and Control.  They can't seem to decide if they want to split things geographically or operationally.

Also the article describes a 1988 army of 132 divisions but with manpower only sufficient to man 10% of them at full strength. 20 Divisions were manned at the 70% level and the rest at 10%.  Fully 1/3 of the total available manpower was spent maintaining old tanks in warehouses just in case it might come in handy one day.

When they converted to a professional army and hired contract soldiers one anecdote describes a Bde that signed contracts with 2700 troops only to have 2300 fail to renew a year or so later because the oil patch paid better, married quarters were abysmal, there were no day care centers and wives had no job opportunities or places to shop.......Stop me if you have heard this one before.

When the Army went into South Ossetia "after Georgia invaded" it was found that there were too many Generals and too few troops as well as too little functioning airlift...... Again.  Stop me if you have heard this.

Here's the link.

 http://www.cast.ru/files/book/NewArmy_sm.pdf

The document has since been cancelled, no doubt superseded by yet another reform attempt but I think it is useful in that I can't imagine the circumstances and conditions improving radically in the last four years.

One other interesting point is that the GRU troops seem to have been "disbanded" then directly attached to the District Command - not just OpCon but actually put under command.  I wonder if that is to improve the quality of the generality of the forces available.  Can they no longer afford a separate "elite"?


----------



## vonGarvin

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> My sense is that Rostov is directing the military activity and that it can only sustain a short assault on one axis at a time.


Another theory discussed here at work involves the Russians putting in just enough leadership, etc, in order to gain combat experience that translates into professional competence throughout their military.

Another analogy is that there is just a trickle of Russians going in in order to damage Ukraine to the point where it is even moreso dependent on Russia, economically speaking.  (Think Verdun).  Let's face it: if Putin wanted, he could have all Ukraine under the Russian boot in a week or two.

Again, just talk around the water fountain at work.


----------



## Kirkhill

Funny you should mention Verdun - Up until Debaltseve fell Verdun (and Ypres) kept coming to mind.  Two salients that were more important psychologically than militarily.  And the direct Debaltseve parallel was the Voie Sacree.

PS - and I don't think the two theories (limited capabilities and spreading the learning wealth) are mutually incompatible.


----------



## vonGarvin

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> PS - and I don't think the two theories (limited capabilities and spreading the learning wealth) are mutually incompatible.



Agreed.


----------



## CougarKing

Technoviking said:
			
		

> They have stopped.fighting...for now.



The "for now" didn't quite last quite as long in Eastern Ukraine even if we're talking about other places aside from the disputed town of Debaltseve.

There goes the tenuous ceasefire that was never really honoured by the rebels in the first place...

Reuters



> *Kiev says cannot withdraw heavy weapons as attacks persist*
> By Pavel Polityuk and Anton Zverev
> 
> KIEV/DONETSK, Ukraine (Reuters) - *Kiev accused pro-Russian rebels of opening fire with rockets and artillery at villages in southeastern Ukraine on Monday, all but burying a week-old European-brokered ceasefire deal.*
> 
> The Ukrainian military said it could not pull weapons from the front as required under the tenuous truce, as long as its troops were still under attack.
> 
> Ukraine's currency, nearly in freefall this month, fell a further 10 percent on Monday on fears that the truce could collapse. The central bank said it would tighten currency rules to sustain the hryvnia. The value of Ukrainian debt also fell, with bonds now trading at 40 cents in the dollar.
> 
> *The reported shooting came closer to killing off the truce, intended to end fighting that has killed more than 5,600 people, which rebels ignored last week to capture the strategic town of Debaltseve in a punishing defeat for Kiev.*
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## MilEME09

> Ukraine conflict has Russian conscripts fearing forced fighting
> The Associated Press
> 
> When Alexander was due to finish his year of mandatory military service in October, his commander told him he had no choice: He had to sign a contract to extend his stay in the army and head to southern Russia for troop exercises.
> 
> The 20-year-old knew that meant he might end up fighting alongside pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine. Other soldiers he talked to had been sent there.
> 
> His commanders "didn't talk about it, but other soldiers told us about it, primarily paratroopers who had been there," Alexander said in an interview with The Associated Press, which is not using his surname for his safety.
> 
> The former private first class ended his military service earlier this month. He avoided being sent to Ukraine — although not without first being threatened with prison for desertion.
> Human rights complaints
> 
> Human rights groups have received dozens of complaints in the past month alone from Russian conscripts like Alexander who say they have been strong-armed or duped into signing contracts with the military to become professional soldiers, after which they were sent to participate in drills in the southern Rostov region.
> 
> "We receive messages from all over in which (soldiers) say that they're being sent again to Rostov for military exercises," said Valentina Melnikova, head of the Committee of Soldiers' Mothers, a group with a three-decade history of working to protect soldiers' rights.
> 
> "Those who have been there (to the Rostov region) before know that in actual fact it means Ukraine."
> 
> Because only contract soldiers can legally be dispatched abroad, worries are spreading among families that inexperienced young conscripts could be sent to fight in eastern Ukraine.
> 
> While Russia has denied it is sending arms and troops to support the separatists, since the summer dozens of soldiers have been reported killed by explosions during drills in the Rostov region — deaths that rights groups actually attribute to the conflict over the border in Ukraine. Weapons appear to flow freely across the frontier, and one group of Russian paratroopers was even captured in August, 50 kilometres  inside the war zone.
> 
> So far, the Russian government has been able to keep a tight lid on information about any soldiers in eastern Ukraine through a shroud of official denials, harassment of independent reporters who cover the deaths, and carrot-and-stick pressure on the families of those killed. But rising concerns among families with young sons could pose a risk for President Vladimir Putin.
> 
> Russia's secrecy about the soldiers' deaths has an important precedent: During the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan in the 1980s, the government released little information about those killed in the conflict. When the true numbers of casualties became known, the intervention turned unpopular.
> No numbers on soldiers killed
> 
> More than 5,600 people have been killed since April in the fighting between Ukrainian troops and the rebels. It is unclear how many Russian soldiers have died in the conflict, as the Defence Ministry has rejected rights groups' requests on the number of soldiers killed on duty in 2014. But the rising casualty count among Russian soldiers specifically could prove decisive in Putin's thinking as he comes under pressure to prevent an expansion of the conflict that might put more Russians in the line of fire.
> Ukraine Russia Soldiers� Fears
> 
> It's unclear how many Russian soldiers have died in the conflict, as the Defence Ministry has rejected rights groups' requests on the number of soldiers killed on duty in 2014. ( Mstyslav Chernov/Associated Press)
> 
> "This is a conflict that reaches pretty deep into the psyche of the Russian people. It's not a foreign conflict. ... It's something very close to home," said Dmitri Trenin, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment in Moscow. "This is something that's at the back of a lot of people's minds, and in particular, people with sons of draft age are worried.
> 
> "Military conquest, in my view, would not be supported by the Russian people, and I think everyone knows it," he added.
> 
> In October, Alexander was preparing to return to his hometown of Inta, a city of 30,000 people that skirts the Arctic Circle, when he and a dozen other recruits were told to report immediately to their base outside of Moscow.
> 
> "They told us: You have to go on a trip," he said as he wolfed down a full tray of food at the local McDonald's. "At first there wasn't any talk about a contract, but later they said that in order to go on the trip we would have to sign a contract, because we can't go as conscripts."
> 'We had to go'
> 
> Russia requires almost all young men to serve in the army for one year at age 18, although many find ways to defer or avoid it. Those who want to have careers in the army can become professional soldiers by signing contracts for two or three years.
> 
> Alexander and his best friend in the unit both have pregnant girlfriends and had no intention of extending their army service. But they were told that they had already agreed to the trip, and that they couldn't back out.
> 
> "We wanted to refuse," he said. "But they refused our refusal, and we had to go."
> 
> Adelya Kamelatdinova's 19-year-old son was serving as a recruit in the army in July when he sent her a text message saying he was being sent to military exercises in Rostov. Then in August, he disappeared for weeks — only to resurface in September and tell her had been stationed in the Ukrainian region of Luhansk, in a village about 80 kilometres from the Russian border.
> 
> When she went to the local recruitment office to complain with another mother whose son had been hospitalized with a concussion, nobody listened: "They told us that our sons were participating in exercises and there aren't any soldiers in Ukraine; that it was a fantasy we thought up."
> 
> Kamelatdinova, who asked that her son's name not be used for fear of retribution, said he had not signed a contract but that he had been forced to sign a statement in which he agreed to cross the Ukrainian border.



http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-conflict-has-russian-conscripts-fearing-forced-fighting-1.2966149?cmp=fbtl&utm_content=bufferea204&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer


----------



## a_majoor

The US parades troops in the Baltic Republics to demonstrate resolve. OTOH, as Instapundit says, 



> "Frankly, I approve — but only if this represents actual, as opposed to symbolic, determination"



http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2015/02/24/u-s-military-vehicles-paraded-300-yards-from-the-russian-border/?tid=pm_pop



> *U.S. military vehicles paraded 300 yards from the Russian border*
> By Michael Birnbaum February 24 at 5:44 PM 
> 
> MOSCOW — U.S. military combat vehicles paraded Wednesday through an Estonian city that juts into Russia, a symbolic act that highlighted the stakes for both sides amid the worst tensions between the West and Russia since the Cold War.
> 
> The armored personnel carriers and other U.S. Army vehicles that rolled through the streets of Narva, a border city separated by a narrow frontier from Russia, were a dramatic reminder of the new military confrontation in Eastern Europe.
> 
> The soldiers from the U.S. Army’s Second Cavalry Regiment were taking part in a military parade to mark Estonia’s Independence Day. Narva is a vulnerable border city separated by a river from Russia. It has often been cited as a potential target for the Kremlin if it wanted to escalate its conflict with the West onto NATO territory.
> 
> [Estonia’s president: Russia is threatening ‘the entire post-World War II order’]
> 
> Russia has long complained bitterly about NATO expansion, saying that the Cold War defense alliance was a major security threat as it drew closer to Russia’s borders. The anger grew especially passionate after the Baltic states joined in 2004, and Russian President Vladimir Putin cited fears that Ukraine would join NATO when he annexed the Crimean Peninsula in March last year.
> 
> Take a look at those stars and stripes. U.S. military vehicles in Narva, Estonia, on Feb. 24. (Estonian Defense Forces)
> 
> Russia’s Baltic neighbors, meanwhile, have said that what happened in Ukraine demonstrates exactly why they wanted to join NATO in the first place.
> 
> U.S. tanks rolled through the streets of Riga, Latvia, in November for that nation’s Independence Day parade, another powerful reminder of U.S. boots on the ground in the region. The United States has sent hundreds of military personnel to joint NATO exercises in the Baltics. NATO nations committed in September to forming a rapid reaction force that could deploy quickly to eastern Europe if they are invaded.
> 
> [In Latvia, fresh fears of aggression as Kremlin warns about Russian minorities]
> 
> Michael Birnbaum is The Post’s Moscow bureau chief. He previously served as the Berlin correspondent and an education reporter.


----------



## vonGarvin

Thucydides said:
			
		

> The US parades troops in the Baltic Republics to demonstrate resolve.



The Russians are crazy for being paranoid...


:


----------



## McG

The US and UK will be sending military advisors into the Ukraine.  Canada is considering the same.



> *Canada quietly moves toward a dangerous Ukraine-Russia war*
> Thomas Walkom
> Toronto Star
> 25 Feb 2015
> 
> As debate over Canada's role in the latest Iraq war rages, Ottawa is quietly being drawn into a second, more dangerous, conflict.
> 
> That second war is in Ukraine. The U.S. and Britain are sending military advisers there to help Ukraine's embattled central government fight Moscow-backed secessionists. Defence Minister Jason Kenney says Canada might do the same.
> 
> Kenney told both Global News and the CBC that any Canadian soldiers in Ukraine would stay far away from the fighting.
> 
> This, of course, is the same assurance that the government gave last fall when it dispatched 69 commandos to advise Kurdish troops in Iraq. As it turned out, those advisers did end up under fire on the front lines.
> 
> For Canada, there are two big differences between the war against Islamic State militants in Iraq and the war in Ukraine.
> 
> The first is that the Ukrainian conflict is more serious. It has reopened Cold War fissures between the world's preeminent nuclear powers.
> 
> Both the United States and Russia say they don't want to go to war against one another over Ukraine. But events are pushing both in that direction.
> 
> Washington has gradually ramped up its non-lethal military aid to Ukraine. The Ukrainians also want weapons and U.S. President Barack Obama says he may oblige.
> 
> Obama has already agreed to send a battalion of soldiers next month to western Ukraine to train government forces. On Tuesday, British Prime Minister David Cameron said that he'd send up to 75 military advisers.
> 
> Last fall, roughly 1,300 NATO troops carried out a joint exercise with the Ukrainian army in the country's west.
> 
> Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, continues to provide military aid - and troops - to rebels in eastern Ukraine, even as he insists he is not.
> 
> The possibility of a collision between Russian and Western forces cannot be ruled out.
> 
> The second big difference is that, so far at least, all three major Canadian political parties have taken the same position on Ukraine.
> 
> The Liberals and New Democrats oppose Prime Minister Stephen Harper's decision to join the war against the Islamic State group. New Democratic Party Leader Tom Mulcair has argued forcefully that the current Iraq war is not Canada's battle.
> 
> But neither Mulcair nor any other opposition MP has said that about Ukraine. Indeed, the opposition's only criticism to date is that the government hasn't been tough enough in its dealings with Russia.
> 
> In the Commons, MPs compete with one another to see who can be most pro-Kyiv.
> 
> In part, this is standard political pandering. Ukrainian-Canadians constitute a significant and vocal voting bloc.
> 
> But in part, the Ukrainian crisis seems to fit a familiar template. In an uncertain world, it is almost reassuring to be transported back to a Cold War time when Russia was bad, we were good and our job was to stand up to bullies.
> 
> In fact, there is nothing simple about this.
> 
> Ukraine has a long proud history as a nation but only a short one as a modern independent state.
> 
> In the 17th and 18th centuries, it was divided among Poland, Russia and Austro-Hungary. Following the Hitler-Stalin pact of 1939, it was reassembled and absorbed completely into the Soviet Union.
> 
> During the 1930s, it suffered under Soviet rule. During the Second World War, it suffered under German occupation. Since becoming independent in 1991, the country has had more than its share of corrupt politicians.
> 
> But Ukraine's real curse is geography. Save for a brief period in the 1990s, Moscow has never been willing to abandon its influence over eastern Ukraine, an area it sees as strategically crucial to Russia's very existence.
> 
> It is within this history that Putin's actions must be understood. He may be a thug. He is almost certainly a gangster. But in his hard-nosed approach to Ukraine, he is classically Russian.
> 
> Economic sanctions have weakened neither him nor his popularity. Western leaders, including Obama, understand the danger of escalating this conflict by sending weapons and military advisers into Ukraine. But they don't seem to know what else to do. They are hoping that this time Putin will blink.
> 
> What if he doesn't? Does the U.S. know how far it is willing to go? Does Canada?


----------



## MilEME09

The latest map






looks like more hot spots are appearing, i'd give it a week at most before we are back to how things were


----------



## CougarKing

Wouldn't she count as a Prisoner of War (POW) then?

Reuters



> *Russia defends Ukraine pilot's detention; U.N., U.S. demand release*
> 
> By Michelle Nichols
> 
> UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - The United Nations, the United States and Britain demanded during a United Nations Security Council meeting on Friday that Russia release Ukrainian military pilot *Nadezhda Savchenko*, but Russia defended her detention as legal.
> 
> Pro-Russia forces captured Savchenko eight months ago and handed her over to Russia, where she is being held on charges of aiding the killing of two Russian journalists in east Ukraine.
> 
> The 33-year-old, who has been on a hunger strike since December, has become a national hero in Ukraine and a symbol of resistance to Russian aggression. She denies the Russian accusation, but could be jailed for 20 years if found guilty.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## MilEME09

There is also a case right now that a Ukrainian politician has been arrested in connection for a fire on Odessa that killed several Russian citizens. In both cases there is no Russian jurisdiction to charge and in one case violation of international law via diplomatic immunity with no actual charges filled. Seems to me the Russians are just harassing Ukrainians as much as possible.


----------



## McG

Russia's "ambiguous war" in eastern Ukraine is also outside international law.  They do not seemed worried about going there.


----------



## Fishbone Jones

Russia is playing the end game. They can just wait it out until the next generation just accepts it that the boundaries are where they are supposed to be. Until someone tries to assimilate them and their village, then it's too late.

The majority of the world could care less about the Ukraine. Old news, move on. It's not even on their radar. If they see something on or in the newspaper, they gloss over it and quit reading after about two sentences. If it's on the radio, or other audio media, they change channels or just tune it out.

Other than ex pat Ukrainians, I'd hazard a guess, that the most of the people in Canada that care what's happening, are right here on this forum.


----------



## vonGarvin

The Russians sound like the Americans: extending their law (and jurisdiction) into other countries.


----------



## MilEME09

Now just like Georgia, this will turn into a stalemate and fade into background until russia makes its next move some time around the next Olympics


----------



## CougarKing

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> Now just like Georgia, this will turn into a stalemate and fade into background until russia makes its next move some time around the next Olympics



I doubt it has it anything to do with just the Olympics per se...I don't recall any Russian incursions during the 2010 Vancouver winter Olympics and the 2012 London Olympics.

Anyways, here's something about Putin's intentions that may interest those who also regularly read the "Russia in the 21st century" thread, but it's not really surprising:

Reuters



> *Putin says plan to take Crimea hatched before referendum*
> 
> MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he ordered officials to start work on taking control of Crimea weeks before a referendum which, the Kremlin has asserted until now, prompted the region's annexation from Ukraine.
> 
> Russian state television channel Rossiya-1 aired a brief extract of an interview in which Putin said he had called an emergency meeting in February last year to discuss the overthrow of Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovich hours earlier.
> 
> Yanukovich, a Russian ally, had fled to the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk after being forced out by anti-government protests.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

I suppose this includes moving SSBNs from Russia's northern fleet to those former Ukrainian navanl bases in Crimea?

Reuters



> *Russia says has right to deploy nuclear weapons in Crimea: report*
> 
> MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia has the right to deploy nuclear arms in the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which Moscow annexed from Ukraine last year, a Foreign Ministry official said on Wednesday, adding he knew of no plans to do so.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## a_majoor

Some indication of the scale and scope of Russian intervention in Ukraine. If it is as stressful on the Russian military machine as suggested, then the proper COA for the West is to keep drilling and pumping oil, supressing the price and preventing the Russians from replenishing their resources:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/11/russia-struggling-ukraine-military-operations-report



> *Scale of Russian military intervention in Ukraine revealed, says report *
> Moscow’s involvement in conflict has been so intense and on such a scale that strain on its military is starting to show, says report
> Julian Borger Diplomatic editor
> Wednesday 11 March 2015 09.48 GMT Last modified on Wednesday 11 March 2015 12.31 GMT
> 
> Large-scale intervention in eastern Ukraine by regular Russian troops began last August, reaching a peak of 10,000 in December, and Moscow has been struggling to maintain operations on such a scale and intensity, according to a report.
> 
> The report, by the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), claims small teams of reconnaissance and Spetsnaz special operations units crossed the border earlier, in mid-July after Ukrainian government forces had won a series of battles and had pushed pro-Moscow separatists out of territory they had previously occupied.
> 
> The Rusi report also confirms the findings of a February investigation, based on analysis of satellite imagery by the Bellingcat group of investigative journalists, that Russian artillery shelled Ukrainian positions from inside Russian territory.
> 
> More on this topicRussia shelled Ukrainians from within its own territory, says study
> 
> Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, has admitted planning the invasion and annexation of Crimea last March, but his government continues to deny any direct involvement in the gruelling conflict in eastern Ukraine. However, the Rusi report says that a total of 42,000 Russian troops from 117 combat and combat-support units have been involved, either being rotated in and out of the front lines in Ukraine or pouring artillery fire from inside Russia.
> 
> “The first operational successes of Ukrainian forces in late June and early July 2014 first prompted Russian artillery fire from within Russian territory, targeted against advancing Ukrainian troops on their own soil, from mid-July onwards,” the report’s author, Igor Sutyagin, writes. “Direct intervention by Russian troops in combat roles then followed in the middle of August, when the prospect of rebel defeat had become realistic. The presence of large numbers of Russian troops on Ukrainian sovereign territory has, more or less, since become a permanent feature of the conflict.”
> 
> The report says that the Russian troops serve as the most capable strike force against the Ukrainian army, adding that “rebel formations have in essence been used as cannon fodder”.
> 
> More on this topicRussian military vehicles enter Ukraine as aid convoy stops short of border
> 
> Sutyagin said the effort of sustaining that level of involvement was beginning to put strains on the capacity of the Russian military.
> 
> “Indeed, it is obvious that there are insufficient resources – military and financial – under the Kremlin’s command to sustain military operations at the current level for over a year: the military capabilities required to carry out the operation are already reaching their limits,” the report says.
> 
> There have been increasing reports of conscripts having been pressganged or tricked into taking part in a covert war in Ukraine, and the Rusi report says enforcer units have been deployed to stop them fleeing the frontlines. It says these “barrier squads”, or anti-retreat troops, are drawn from the interior ministry’s Dzerzhinskiy division.
> 
> Sutyagin, a Russian military researcher and arms control expert, spent 11 years in prison, mostly in a penal colony in Russia’s Arctic north, after having been convicted of espionage charges, which he has denied.
> 
> More on this topicIgor Sutyagin is odd man out in spy swap deal
> 
> He was hired to write reports for a British company and says his reports were compiled from information in the public domain. Moscow freed him as part of a spy-swap in 2010, but Sutyagin said he was included as a face-saving ploy by Russian intelligence. He has lived in Britain since his release.


----------



## vonGarvin

The harder you suppress Russia economically, the worse off Ukraine is.


Besides, why the fuck do we even care to try to suppress Russia? I mean, really?  We helped orchestrate the coup d'etat, Russian Strategic assets in Crimea were threatened, and of course they move to return it to Russia (right or wrong, but the "coup d'etat/annexation" there was done by balloting, not by MLRS attacks on grid squares). 

And yes, of course they can (and already probably have) nuclear assets in Crimea.  Who cares?

I still think that this is all linked to egg on the face of the West over Syria.  After all, it was Russia who led in that area, influencing Syria much more effectively than we were.  By stirring up the shit storm in Kyiv, we were able to divert Russia away from the middle east.

I'm sorry, but by backing either side in Ukraine we're backing the wrong side.  

I'm more worried about ISIS, Boko Haram, etc, who have demonstrated a "clear and present danger" to the West, certainly not Russia.

:2c:


----------



## CougarKing

Technoviking said:
			
		

> I'm more worried about ISIS, Boko Haram, etc, who have demonstrated a "clear and present danger" to the West, certainly not Russia.
> 
> :2c:



I take it you are aware that Russia has sold weapons to other entities who are far from being friends of the west, namely Syria's Assad regime and Iran as well as North Korea. 

Furthermore, I don't agree with your previous posts about "Russia just needs its own corner of Europe where it can be the big kid on its own block" argument. That argument can be used to justify Hitler's annexation of the Sudetenland or the Axis invasion of the Soviet Union in WW2 under Hitler's "to clear the Slavic peoples to create Lebensraum/living space for his Aryan people" justification. 

So just because there are ethnic Russians in Baltics, you would argue that Putin would be right to bite off segments of those countries too just as what happened in Ukraine? How long till they engineer more uprisings in the Baltics or Belarus or even other CIS states using the "we need to protect the ethnic Russians in these countries" justification?

Ukraine may have its own host of problems like corruption, etc., but that's characteristic of many Eastern European nations already. Russia slowly gobbling up Eastern Ukraine using the Novorossiya rebel pretext is just another case of a strong nation bullying its weaker neighbours. 

That will only embolden Russia to not only bully more of Europe, but us as well eventually. 

But you can take the "isolationist/it's not my fight/it's not in our country's interest" track; fortunately our Prime Minister doesn't agree with you, as one can see from the Harper government's many recent statements saying "Canada stands with Ukraine". 

-------------------

*And as for the nuclear war threat you keep mentioning in previous posts which you constantly remind us that might come with an escalation, isn't the fear of M.A.D. (mutually assured destruction) also preventing the Russians from launching a first strike in the first place? And people wonder why China, in contrast to Russia, has a "no-first strike" nuke policy.

Even if a Russia politician recently tweeted that they could "turn the US to ashes", I think Putin is more pragmatic than let it escalate to that level.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Technoviking said:
			
		

> The harder you suppress Russia economically, the worse off Ukraine is. Agreed
> 
> Besides, why the fuck do we even care to try to suppress Russia? I mean, really?  We helped orchestrate the coup d'etat, Russian Strategic assets in Crimea were threatened, and of course they move to return it to Russia (right or wrong, but the "coup d'etat/annexation" there was done by balloting, not by MLRS attacks on grid squares). Irrelevant
> 
> And yes, of course they can (and already probably have) nuclear assets in Crimea.  Who cares? Agreed
> 
> I still think that this is all linked to egg on the face of the West over Syria.  After all, it was Russia who led in that area, influencing Syria much more effectively than we were.  By stirring up the shit storm in Kyiv, we were able to divert Russia away from the middle east. Also irrelevant
> 
> I'm sorry, but by backing either side in Ukraine we're backing the wrong side. Agreed BUT dismantling Putin's Russia is a good idea on its own merits
> 
> I'm more worried about ISIS, Boko Haram, etc, who have demonstrated a "clear and present danger" to the West, certainly not Russia. Disagree, Russia has real, long range capacity to do serious harm. The various and sundry terrorist organizations can terrorise us, a lot, now and again, but they cannot manage much else.
> 
> :2c: (My comments are worth 2¢ less than that)


----------



## Kirkhill

The Swedish Report Link would suggest much the same thing as the RUSI report

The biggest problems are manpower, logistics and command and control.

On manpower - 

By law the Russian Armed Forces are authorised to 1,000,000 PYs
Because of Recruiting Problems this is to be reduced to 915,000 PYs in 2017.
The Ministry of Defence acknowledges 800,000 in uniform
Russian media claims 700,000
The Swedes counted 657,000.  Or a shortfall of 35% (350,000 PYs)

Of those 657,000 some 220,000 are officers (often doing jobs that you would have Master Corporals doing).

Another 250,000 are conscripts who are taken into service in two drafts a year for one year's service.  So half of these bodies are at 0 to 6 months and the other half at 6 to 12 months and then they are released.  They are of limited military value.

The Russians have experimented with "professional" soldiers.  They used to have a semi-pro class of NCOs and Warrant Officers for technical trades, like sigs and logistics, but they released all of those when they thought they were going to an all volunteer force. 

In the Causasus they resorted to hiring willing bodies on three year contracts - often these were navy techs and strategic missile conscripts that had no relevant military training and had to be trained from scratch.   They released once their contracts were up.

The Russians are now trying out "professional" NCOs and conscript privates - with unsatisfactory results.

The other problem the Russians face is that the Army is last in line for manning.

Before the Army gets manned the manning priorities are:

Command
Nuclear Forces
Navy
Air Force
Air Defence

And within the troops on the ground the priorities are Spetsnaz, Airborne and then the Army proper.

Within the Army the priorities are the Southern Military District  (Caucasus - Ukraine at 90%) and then everbody else.

In practice what this means is that the 3 to 5 manned Tank Brigades and  33 to 38 manned Motor Rifle Brigades are not all manned and most of them are training platforms for conscripts.  

Even the Airborne is 2/3 conscripts (24,000 out of 35,000) with the other third being 4000 Officers and 7000 Professionals.

"Permanent" forces are not employed as entities but are harvested for sub-units and individuals to create Battle Groups.

The equipment varies from Brigade to Brigade.  Most of it was built during the Reagan years.  Maintenance is poor.  Logistics administration is short.  Logistics infrastructure is poor.

Internal Lines of Communication are virtually non-existent.  There is no internal road network.  Rail is still the best east west connection but there is still only the Trans-Siberian Railway, which is located very close to the Kazakh and Mongol Borders and at best can move a Brigade from Petropavlovsk to Petersburg in a week.

Air lift is limited to the Ilyushin 76s and whatever Ukrainian built Antonovs they can keep flying.  They have enough to lift a Regiment of Paras without their BMDs or a Battalion with them.  The airfields are widely dispersed (meaning they are not close to everywhere) and they are poorly maintained.

Aircraft are being stood down faster than new ones are being built.  Only the biggest ships are being maintained and only at about 60% readiness.  And as for nuclear forces, more than 50% of the available force is scheduled for retirement in the next 5 years.  No new missiles have been built in any numbers since the 1980s.  

The industrial base can't support UAVs or PGMs or even new Radar systems.  It is struggling with developing replacement aircraft.  It is having difficulty developing new rockets.

In short, Vlad is bluffing.  He is weak and he knows it and he is only going to get weaker.


----------



## a_majoor

Kirkhill, unmanned units, shortage of technical personnel, overmanned officer corps; are you sure you were not posting about the Canadian Forces on this thread?  

Now to really ensure a final and crushing defeat, we need to force Russia to abide by our Treasury Board rules....


----------



## Kirkhill

Thucydides said:
			
		

> Kirkhill, unmanned units, shortage of technical personnel, overmanned officer corps; are you sure you were not posting about the Canadian Forces on this thread?
> 
> Now to really ensure a final and crushing defeat, we need to force Russia to abide by our Treasury Board rules....



I swear, reading those reports on the Russians, I became convinced that somehow we had insidiously infiltrated them with a bunch of Carleton MBAs.


----------



## McG

Technoviking said:
			
		

> Besides, why the fuck do we even care to try to suppress Russia?


To advantage our position in the Arctic?


----------



## MilEME09

I agree with the assumption that Russia is weak, it's why Russia wants buffer states, but its capability to wage conflict is limited, Georgia and Ukraine prove that. Russia is throwing its best troops at the problem, eventually something is going to break within Russia.

Edit: the latest map from the government


----------



## The Bread Guy

It now appears official - this from Ukrainian media ....


> Ukraine has sent a formal request to the UN to deploy the peacekeeping mission to eastern Ukraine.
> 
> Spokesman for Foreign Ministry of Ukraine Yevhen Perebyinis has said this in commentary to the Associated Press.
> 
> "The size and scope of the proposed mission would be worked out in consultation with the U.N.," Perebyinis said.
> 
> According to the spokesman, the preliminary request for the mission has been submitted to U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and that another would follow after the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine approves the proposal.


.... and this from Russian media:


> The UN Secretariat confirmed on Friday they received a preliminary request from Kiev on deploying peacekeepers in eastern Ukraine.
> 
> Spokesman for UN Secretary General Stephane Dujarric told reporters on Friday that the letter was received on February 23 underlining the world organization’s Security Council would make a relevant decision on sending the "blue helmets" to Ukraine, but not the secretary general.
> 
> On Thursday Russia’s Ambassador to the UN Vitaly Churkin told TASS that Kiev’s idea to send peacekeepers to Donbas is a "propagandistic thing that even Ukrainians themselves do not know how to treat." ....


And here's the latest map from the UKR Info-machine:


----------



## PuckChaser

And we'll get to see how useless the UN is again, as Russia vetoes the mission when it hits the security council.


----------



## MilEME09

and with more and more hot spots showing up as the days go on, the cease fire is dead, its only a matter of time before the heavy weapons get moved back, for a massive rebel offensive in the south i bet.


----------



## The Bread Guy

So far, the Russians seem underwhelmed at the idea of U.N. peacekeepers -- this from Russian media ....


> Moscow will abstain from voting in the UN Security Council on the deployment of UN peacekeepers to Ukraine, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.
> 
> On Tuesday, the Ukrainian parliament (Verkhovna Rada) approved Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko's proposal to appeal to the UN Security Council and the Council of the European Union for an international operation to maintain peace and security in Ukraine, where Kiev launched a military operation against independence supporters in April, 2014.
> 
> "We will not even vote," Lavrov said on Saturday, in an interview broadcast on Russia's Rossiya-1 television channel ....


.... and this from Ukrainian media:


> Russia will not vote in the UN Security Council on the draft resolution to deploy peacekeepers in Ukraine.
> 
> This has been stated by Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov on the air of the Russia 1TV channel, TASS reports.
> 
> "We will not even vote," the minister said, when asked about Russia's actions in case such a draft is submitted to the UN Security Council.
> 
> "If this story goes to the Security Council, the Council immediately requests the Secretary General to report on how this initiative is treated by both sides - in this case the Kyiv authorities, Donetsk and Luhansk. There are no other peacekeeping operations," Lavrov said ....


Meanwhile, separatist media in eastern Ukraine say here's another option ....


> *Collective Security Treaty Organization has been ready to send peacemakers* -- (C)STO agrees to send peacemakers to Donbass if it get appropriate permit from the UNO. It was announced by the general secretary of military-politic union Nikolay Bordyuzha.  He reported that the organization has enough peacemaking contingents that passed necessary mission of preparing.  Ukrainian has not expressed their reaction yet ....


And who's the CSTO?


> .... Current members
> 
> Armenia (2002)
> Belarus (2002)
> Kazakhstan (2002)
> Kyrgyzstan (2002)
> Russia (2002)
> Tajikistan (2002)
> 
> Observers
> 
> Afghanistan (2013)
> Serbia (2013)
> 
> Possible candidates
> 
> Iran ....


----------



## a_majoor

Ukraine is starting to take some long overdue steps to clean up the corruption that has sapped its viability as a state. In the long run, this might be far more important than the military campaign in the east, since a "clean" Ukrainian government will be appealing to _everyone_ in Ukraine (and the various rebel groups might discover that dealing with Russia isn't as pleasant as they expected):

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/03/25/ukraine-starts-cleaning-its-augean-stables/



> *Ukraine Starts Cleaning Its Augean Stables*
> 
> Ukraine appears to have taken some very deliberate, forceful, and very welcome steps towards fighting the corruption that has been at the heart of its state since independence.
> 
> First, in a bid to end a dangerous standoff that had developed over the weekend, President Petro Poroshenko late last night fired upstart oligarch Igor Kolomoisky from his appointed post as governor of Dniepropetrovsk. Kolomoisky, chafing under a recent law which had restricted his veto power in two state-owned energy enterprises, had sent armed men to Kyiv to occupy the offices of the state oil company earlier this week. Poroshenko had given Kolomoisky 24 hours to stand down. Yesterday, Kolomoisky was already signaling that he was softening, saying in an interview on his own television station that he had spoken to Poroshenko, and they had agreed that “this is not the way things should happen.”
> 
> We wrote as far back as June of last year about the threat that empowered oligarchs present to the viability of the Ukrainian state. If Kolomoisky has gone quietly, as it initially appears he has, this is a big step toward finally establishing the rule of law in the country. Of course, the devil is always in the details. The thing to watch for next is if and how the militias Kolomoisky has been funding are integrated into Ukraine’s security services, and what kind of compromise, if any, was struck with Kolomoisky over his stake in the energy sector.
> 
> But that’s not all. In a second surprise move, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk arrested (and fired) the head of its State Service for Emergency Situations (GosChS) Sergei Bochkovskiy, and his deputy Vasiliy Stoitskiy, for corruption—in the middle of a cabinet meeting being televised on live TV.  According to the Interpreter, the GosChS had made fuel purchases from Lukoil and Alliance without receiving competing bids from other firms, and then skimmed off the top:
> 
> At a later stage, the GosChS transferred money to these companies for the fuel, after which 15% of those funds were transferred into the accounts of non-residents and other foreign companies. These, in turn, transferred funds to the GosChS managers’ own accounts, said the MVD investigator.
> 
> The footage is dramatic: (go to link to see video)
> 
> Having the arrest made in full public view is sending a very strong signal: the Ukrainian government sees that rooting out this kind of corruption is a priority.
> 
> A good day in Ukraine today, then, and a good start. The fight against the oligarchs is far from over, as young parliamentarian and Maidan organizer Mustafa Nayyem wrote after Kolomoisky’s ouster. And Ukraine’s finances are in as bad a shape as ever, with Moody’s downgrading the country to its second-to-lowest rating and warning about an imminent default. But events like these give one hope that eventually Ukraine might be able to turn the corner after all.


----------



## PPCLI Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> So far, the Russians seem underwhelmed at the idea of U.N. peacekeepers --



That would be a win for them - it would "freeze" the conflict and would legitimise their claim.....


----------



## MilEME09

PPCLI Guy said:
			
		

> That would be a win for them - it would "freeze" the conflict and would legitimise their claim.....



They did the same thing in Georgia, so I don't see why not. I think if the Ukrainian government can show they are successfully battling corruption, and get the message into the east it may turn peoples opinions if they believe the Ukraine of old is gone and that the new Ukraine will be more fair with better opportunity.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> I think if the Ukrainian government can show they are successfully battling corruption, and get the message into the east it may turn peoples opinions if they believe the Ukraine of old is gone and that the new Ukraine will be more fair with better opportunity.


Agreed, with a bit "IF" -- if said message is able to get through given, 1)  the uber-messaging coming from pro-Russian/separatist media, and 2)  what I'm guessing is a bit of .... persuasion by the separatists to avoid co-operating with the Ukrainians.


----------



## The Bread Guy

This from the UKR MoD Info-machine -  highlights mine:


> Colonel General Viktor Muzhenko, Chief of General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine, held talks with Mr. Roman Vashchuk, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Canada to Ukraine, and Lt. Col. Pierre St-Cyr, Canadian Defense Attaché to Ukraine.
> 
> The parties discussed the bilateral cooperation on training of Ukrainian servicemen and units along with U.S. and Canada representatives at Ukrainian ranges and provision of non-lethal material technical support to Ukraine.
> 
> “We have a package of initiatives proving our assistance to Ukraine and demonstrating our readiness to support your country in development of modern armed forces”, Mr. Roman Vashchuk emphasized.
> 
> According to him, *Canada is ready to support Ukraine in reforms of military law enforcement service, training and equipping of EOD specialists, as well as improvement of flight safety system*.
> 
> “There are no problems with organization of training for our servicemen by professional instructors. We have well-equipped training centers and are ready for such cooperation”, Colonel General Viktor Muzhenko stressed.


----------



## The Bread Guy

A couple of tidbits, both from Russian media:


> *Crimea Ready to Deploy Nuclear Weapons Systems on Russian President's Order*
> 
> Crimea will welcome the deployment of nuclear weapons in the republic if Russian President Vladimir Putin deems it necessary, Crimean head Sergei Aksenov told Sputnik.
> 
> “If there is such an order from the supreme commander, we would support it,” Aksenov said.
> 
> On Wednesday, the chair of Russian State Duma Defense Committee, Vladimir Komoyedov, said that needed, Russia was ready to place nuclear weapons in Crimea ....





> *NATO Not Moving East, Eastern Europe Wanting to Join Alliance - Stoltenberg*
> 
> NATO is not expending east, it is eastern Europe countries that want to join the block, Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg said Friday.
> 
> "It's independent nations that have knocked on the door and wanted membership. It's not NATO in any way moving east — it's the east wanting to join NATO and/or the European Union. And that's the sovereign right of every sovereign nation to decide," Stoltenberg said in an interview with Canada's magazine Maclean's.
> 
> Choosing a security arrangement is fundamental right of every country, NATO chief stressed, if Ukraine applies to join the block, we will assess the application.
> 
> "So this idea that this is something that is lost for Russia and gained by the European Union is the wrong concept," Stoltenberg noted, commenting on the interviewer's remark on the European Union expansion and Russia giving up territories ...."


----------



## McG

Dutch prosecutors are looking for witnesses who had seen the Buk launcher associated with the MH17 downing.  New evidence from the crash site has added further credence to the theory of a SAM being the cause.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32120644


----------



## cupper

Well, perhaps we finally have confirmation of what even a blind and deaf observer could tell you was going on.

*Russian Soldiers Have Given Up Pretending They Are Not Fighting in Ukraine*

https://news.vice.com/article/russian-soldiers-have-given-up-pretending-they-are-not-fighting-in-ukraine



> For the past year, the Kremlin has strenuously denied that its troops are supporting pro-Russia rebels in eastern Ukraine — but fighters on the ground are apparently no longer bothering to keep up the farce.
> 
> St. Petersburg native Dmitry Sapozhnikov, who went to Ukraine in October to fight alongside the rebels, told the BBC Russian service in a candid interview from Donetsk that Russian military units have played a decisive role in rebel advances, including the operations in February that led to the capture of the transport hub of Debaltseve. Russian officers directly command large military operations in eastern Ukraine, he noted.
> 
> "Tanks and Russian units came through the LPR," Sapozhnikov said, referring to the self-declared Luhansk People's Republic on the border with Russia. "But I don't think that this is a secret anymore, everyone admits it, and the Russians admit it.… Thanks to the Russian forces, we're able to take positions quickly. We were located near Debaltseve and thinking, well, we're going to hold them in this encirclement for another month, it will drag on.… But in the end we took it in three days."
> 
> Sapozhnikov said that tank units from Siberia were aiding the rebels. His account corresponds with an interview given by an injured Russian soldier in a hospital in Donetsk to the independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta, in which he said that his tank unit had helped take Debaltseve.
> 
> Throughout the conflict, which the United Nations says has killed more than 6,000 people, evidence of Russian military support for the rebels has mounted. Ten Russian paratroopers were captured in Ukraine last August, and NATO published satellite photographs showing what it described as Russian tanks crossing the border that summer. Rebel leader Alexander Zakharchenko even admitted around the same time that active-duty Russian troops were fighting with his men, though he claimed that they had chosen to fight while on vacation.
> 
> Russian officials including President Vladimir Putin have repeatedly denied that their soldiers are in Ukraine, arguing that the Russians who are fighting there are all volunteers.
> 
> Sapozhnikov himself is one such volunteer, a leader of a fringe monarchist party in St. Petersburg who said he left his business renovating homes to help defend Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine and oppose Kiev's shift toward the West. As the leader of a special forces unit of the Donetsk People's Republic, he also took part in the bloody battle for the Donetsk airport, which the rebels captured in January after months of fighting.
> 
> He admitted the Russian military has been instrumental to their success.
> 
> "Naturally, all operations, especially large-scale ones like encirclements, are directed by Russian soldiers, Russian generals," Sapozhnikov said. "They make plans together with our commanders. I often had to go to the headquarters to provide some information."
> 
> The Novaya Gazeta interview with tank crewmember Dorji Batomunkuev, who was recovering from severe burns that left his hands and face covered in bandages, offered further details about how Russian soldiers have been secretively deployed to Ukraine.
> 
> Drafted into the army in 2013, Batomunkuev was placed in a newly created battalion last fall. The battalion's 31 tanks and their crews were sent to the border region of Rostov, ostensibly for training, but Batomunkuev said that he knew they would be sent to Ukraine. They painted over the emblems and numbers on their tanks, removed the patches and chevrons from their uniforms, and turned in their passports, phones, and military IDs. After three months of exercises, they were sent forward one day and only realized that they had crossed into Ukraine when they started seeing road signs for Donetsk.
> 
> "We understood that the whole war depended on us," he said. "That's why they'd beaten the training into us those previous three months. We were well prepared, both our snipers and other troops."
> 
> The unit eventually was deployed near Debaltseve, where it shelled Ukrainian positions. Batomunkuev was injured when an enemy shell hit his tank. Although he sympathized with the conscripts on the Ukrainian government side, he also argued that Ukrainian forces had killed civilians and hired "mercenaries" from Poland and Chechnya.
> 
> Batomunkuev called Putin "crafty" for denying that he had sent troops to Ukraine, and stressed that Kiev's turn to the West was endangering Russia's interests.
> 
> "From what I've read and the history I've studied, Russia's opinions have started to be reckoned with in recent years," he said. "Nowadays, we're on the rise again, we are being treated with contempt again, but we haven't disintegrated yet."
> 
> Asked why the Kremlin has continued to deny the presence of its soldiers in Ukraine, Sapozhnikov said that he thought there might be a "secret agreement" between Russia, the European Union, and the United States to look the other way. He expressed that Putin was likely using the same strategy that he employed with the annexation of Crimea in March: initially denying the deployment of Russian troops, then admitting it once the territory had been won.
> 
> "If the EU and the USA wanted to prove that Russia's forces are located here, I think it would be easy to do," Sapozhnikov said. "They would just go and photograph the armor and everything. But they're not doing that, they're closing their eyes. And the Russians for their part close their eyes to the presence of American and European soldiers on the Ukrainian side."
> 
> He claimed that 300 foreign soldiers, including Americans and Europeans, had been captured in Debaltseve, and that "most of them were snipers" — although he admitted that he hadn't seen any of them himself.
> 
> Although the US and United Kingdom have sent military advisors to Ukraine this year, and a handful of European volunteers have been known to be fighting on Kiev's side, no Western combat troops have been reported. The West has also been sending non-lethal military supplies to Ukraine, including a shipment of US Humvees that arrived last week.
> 
> Sapozhnikov also said that his unit had been preparing earlier this month for a potential assault on Mariupol, a strategic port city that pro-Russia forces briefly held last year. Although the ceasefire declared in February has been mostly observed in recent weeks, Kiev worries that the city will be the next target of separatist forces.
> 
> "We're going to fight until we free the territory of Donbas," Sapozhnikov said, referring to the coal-mining area that comprises the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. "I hope that happens in the near future, but I'm ready to be here for another year or two."


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, in Ukraine's east, it's "no booze for YOU!" for the separatist forces:


> Head of the Luhansk military-civilian administration Gennady Moskal has ordered to ban selling alcohol to the military in border regions and in cities of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR), the press service of LPR head said on Wednesday.
> 
> With the aim of minimizing the risk of terrorist attacks, protecting national security and preventing offenses in the region, "the presence of foreigners without registration is prohibited, along with presence of people without documents in settlements from 10pm until 5am (local time), long stops of vehicles, etc."
> 
> Temporary regime restrictions are introduced in nine out of 19 districts in the Luhansk region bordering on Russia. Selling alcohol to the military is also prohibited in three towns under the regional jurisdiction — Severodonetsk, Lisichansk and Rubezhny.
> 
> A similar measure was introduced in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic in March ....


----------



## McG

Amnesty International accuses Ukraine separatists of murdering their war prisoners, and the group presents some evidence.  Meanwhile, a Russian national commanding separatist forces appears to admit to have personally conducted several such executions. 


> Ukraine soldiers 'summarily killed'
> BBC News
> Apr 8, 2015
> 
> The allegations come amid an uneasy ceasefire in eastern Ukraine
> 
> Amnesty International has said it has evidence pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine summarily killed four Ukrainian soldiers in their captivity.
> 
> Witnesses told the group that one government soldier was shot at point-blank range by a separatist commander.
> 
> Amnesty also said it had videos of three others shown alive in captivity, then dead in a morgue with bullet wounds to their heads and upper bodies.
> 
> A fragile ceasefire has been in force in eastern Ukraine since February.
> 
> The killings are tantamount to war crimes, Amnesty said.
> 
> "These claims must be promptly, thoroughly and impartially investigated, and the perpetrators prosecuted in fair trials by recognized authorities," said Denis Krivosheev, Europe and Central Asia Deputy Director at the organisation.
> 
> The allegations come after one separatist commander told the Ukrainian newspaper Kyiv Post he personally killed 15 soldiers captured from the Ukrainian armed forces.
> 
> An adviser to the rebels told the BBC last year they had carried out executions in one separatist-held area "to prevent chaos".
> 
> Rights groups have accused both sides in the conflict of abuses.
> 
> Some 6,000 people have been killed since fighting broke out in eastern Ukraine between pro-Russian separatists and the Ukrainian government a year ago.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32228336


----------



## The Bread Guy

This from the UKR MoD Info-machine:


> Sumy volunteers presented fire adjustment devices to servicemen of the 27thRocket Artillery Regiment from Canadian Diaspora.
> 
> Ten tablets with topo maps and satellite imagery installed help to localize the enemy in a rapid and correct manner. The soldiers also got ‘La Crosse’ weather station. This station is rather small and light, provides 24-hour forecast.


----------



## George Wallace

Meanwhile in Germany, and a NATO QRF:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32257543



> *Germany to bring 100 mothballed tanks back into service*
> BBC
> 10 April 2015
> From the section Europe
> 
> *Germany plans to bring 100 mothballed tanks back into service in what is widely seen as a response to rising tensions with Russia over Ukraine.
> *
> The tanks were sold to industry as part of defence cuts after the Cold War.
> 
> The German defence ministry said it would spend €22m (£16m;$24m) on bringing its total of tanks to 328.
> 
> Nato officials agreed in February to create a quick-reaction force to meet the challenges posed by the Ukraine crisis and by Islamic extremists.
> 
> *Nato defence ministers* have also agreed to more than double the size of the alliance's Response Force.
> 
> The moves were seen as a signal that Nato regards Russia's seizure of Crimea and its military forays into eastern Ukraine as much more than a temporary crisis.
> 
> German defence ministry spokesman Jens Flosdorff confirmed a *report by Der Spiegel* (in German), saying 100 Leopard 2 battle tanks will be bought back from the defence industry, which has kept them in storage.
> 
> The spokesman said Germany has to ensure that it can deploy troops with the correct equipment to the right place in a short period of time, given the new goals of flexibility and swift reaction times.
> 
> "This can only succeed if the equipment does not need to be first moved around through the country," Mr Flosdorff said.
> 
> The tanks will begin to be modernised in 2017.
> 
> The move partially reverses a decision made four years ago to cut the total number of German tanks from 350 to 225.


----------



## MilEME09

With Estonia calling for a permanent standing NATO force in their country, and the conflict not ending in Ukraine, I see this escalating quickly, I even expect the CAF to see increased spending after the election.

On the ukrainian front, this is the latest map,


----------



## CougarKing

Not surprising despite all the Russian foreign ministry's denials.

Reuters



> *U.S. says Russia air defense systems inside Ukraine*
> 
> WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States on Wednesday accused Russia of building up air defense systems inside eastern Ukraine and of involvement in training exercises of pro-Russian rebels in breach of a European-brokered truce.
> 
> *"This is the highest amount of Russian air defense equipment in eastern Ukraine since August," State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf said in a statement.*
> 
> She said the increasingly complex nature of the training exercises "leaves no doubt that Russia is involved."
> 
> *"The training has also incorporated Russian UAV's (unmanned aerial vehicles), an unmistakable sign of Russian presence," Harf added.*
> 
> (...SNIPPED)



Defense News




> *Kiev Lists Russian Military Units Allegedly in Ukraine*
> 
> (...SNIPPED)
> 
> Muzhenko insisted: "We have details of all the Russian units, where they are deployed, their numbers and their weapons," he said.
> 
> He named among them the *Russian army's 15th Mechanized Infantry Brigade, the 8th Mechanized Infantry Brigade, the 331st Airborne Regiment and the 98th Airborne Division*.


----------



## a_majoor

The real question isn't "who's in Ukraine now?" but rather what can we do about it (in a meaningful and effective way). AS pointed out ion an article on the Russia in the 21rst century thread, tactical responses are unlikely to be successful and play right into Russia's long suit (they are on the ground, have the numbers and equipment to counter anything less than an all out assault and are across a pours border, so have sanctuary), so *we* need to work a lot harder to play our long suits, especially in economics, "soft power" and diplomacy.

Sadly, I'm not smart enough to propose many solutions, so waiting for the grown ups to get a move on.


----------



## MilEME09

Thucydides said:
			
		

> The real question isn't "who's in Ukraine now?" but rather what can we do about it (in a meaningful and effective way). AS pointed out ion an article on the Russia in the 21rst century thread, tactical responses are unlikely to be successful and play right into Russia's long suit (they are on the ground, have the numbers and equipment to counter anything less than an all out assault and are across a pours border, so have sanctuary), so *we* need to work a lot harder to play our long suits, especially in economics, "soft power" and diplomacy.
> 
> Sadly, I'm not smart enough to propose many solutions, so waiting for the grown ups to get a move on.



Force can't work at all unless NATO played deterrent, UA forces are ill equipped and trained to fight, and the level of russian infiltration into the UA military means any large scale effort is doomed to fail before it begins. If somehow Ukraine could get it's hands on a list of insiders and clean house they might have a chance if a conflict breaks out. All we can do is keep hitting Russia, especially Europe, France and the UK especially need to block all current military contracts with Russia, some RU equipment uses components made in those two countries, without it the RU war machine may slowly grind to a hault.


----------



## The Bread Guy

A few tidbits:  

OSCE says loads o' fighting going on in Shyrokyne, near the critical Ukrainian city of Mariupol - UKR info-machine map attached.  With Ukraine seeking a "demilitarization" of that area, I'm guessing it means they're not exactly winning.  To give a bit of geographic perspective, if Mariupol was Gagetown, the bad guys would be shooting 'er up around Cambridge Narrows or Salmon Creek.  If Mariupol was Wainwright, the bad guy's are in around Heath.  Halifax?  Think East Preston.
While Russian media allege UKR forces have asked separatist forces to fire on a militia-unit-pulled-into-the-UKR-forces battalion, some Ukrainian Radical Party member apparently accused Queen Elizabeth, because of her blue coat/hat and yellow daffodils channelling the UKR flag, of being "An aggressive, cynical Bandera follower, a punisher granny, a loyal adherent of the Kiev junta (with) Her secret of youth is that she drinks fresh blood of (babies from separatist Eastern Ukraine)."
One more bit for the UKR info-machine:  a cover of Barry Sadler's "Ballad of the Green Beret", with new Ukrainian lyrics (YouTube) - the black & white video has the feel of video from the Yugo war (with troops being better equipped and a touch more uniform).


----------



## vonGarvin

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> A few tidbits:
> 
> OSCE says loads o' fighting going on in Shyrokyne, near the critical Ukrainian city of Mariupol - UKR info-machine map attached.  With Ukraine seeking a "demilitarization" of that area, I'm guessing it means they're not exactly winning.  To give a bit of geographic perspective, if Mariupol was Gagetown, the bad guys would shooting 'er up around Cambridge Narrows or Salmon Creek.  If Mariupol was Wainwright, the bad guy's are in around Heath.  Halifax?  Think East Preston.



If Canada (and NATO) is serious about this, then we need a new mindset.  Dont' think Balkans or even Afghanistan; think nightmare.  No longer will they be "tours" if things go wrong, but rather think of "campaign".  No HLTA, no "high readiness BG", no "x line of operation".  Think more than a BG or even a Bde Group.  And we (Canada) will need integral Anti Tank and Anti Air.  And lots of it.  And that's just a start.

If we're not prepared for the above, then we better find a different tack.

/$0.02[/list]


----------



## Kirkhill

Technoviking said:
			
		

> If Canada (and NATO) is serious about this, then we need a new mindset.  Dont' think Balkans or even Afghanistan; think nightmare.  No longer will they be "tours" if things go wrong, but rather think of "campaign".  No HLTA, no "high readiness BG", no "x line of operation".  Think more than a BG or even a Bde Group.  And we (Canada) will need integral Anti Tank and Anti Air.  And lots of it.  And that's just a start.
> 
> If we're not prepared for the above, then we better find a different tack.
> 
> /$0.02




 :goodpost:

(except for that "nightmare" bit - a tad histrionic  ;D )


----------



## MilEME09

We should stop doing things half assed too, going to deploy? send an entire CMBG in force, none of this oh ill grab a unit from here, and here and here


----------



## vonGarvin

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> :goodpost:
> 
> (except for that "nightmare" bit - a tad histrionic  ;D )




By "Nightmare" I just mean things like "No Air Supremacy, no freedom of movement, no 96 hour planning cycles"


----------



## Retired AF Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> One more bit for the UKR info-machine:  a cover of Barry Sadler's "Ballad of the Green Beret", with new Ukrainian lyrics (YouTube) - the black & white video has the feel of video from the Yugo war (with troops being better equipped and a touch more uniform).



Not to shabby I must say. Somebody put a lot of effort to match the Urania lyrics to the original song.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Interesting view of tensions between the UKR military, security services and some militias ....

Right Sector blog (in Ukrainian):  Ukrainian paras surrounded our base
UKR MoD Info-machine (English):  Paras were doing training, as well as "The parties discussed issues of preliminary agreements concerning cooperation and integration of the Volunteer Ukrainian Corps into the Armed Forces of Ukraine"
Security Service of Ukraine boss (English):  "“Pravyi Sector” fighters, experienced in battles for the independence of Ukraine, will enhance the Ukrainian Army, Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, the SSU Head, stated on his return from the anti-terrorist operation zone"
An interesting overview of this one in English at a pro-Ukrainian blog here.

Meanwhile, Canadian MP's appear to be on the ground, and Canada helps the National Guard get night vision.


----------



## Kirkhill

Retired AF Guy said:
			
		

> Not to shabby I must say. Somebody put a lot of effort to match the Urania lyrics to the original song.





Yes it is propaganda.  Just as "Lili Marlene" and "We'll Meet Again" were propaganda.  No less heart felt.


----------



## The Bread Guy

1)  An interesting update from Russian media on the (alleged) "getting a grip on private militias" story - highlights mine:


> Unidentified special task forces are conducting a special operation in the area of the township of Avdeyevka in Donbas to render harmless a battalion of Ukrainian nationalists, Eduard Basurin, an official spokesman for the Defence Ministry of the self-proclaimed unrecognized Donetsk People’s Republic said on Thursday.
> 
> "About 5 a.m., our reconnaissance registered a brief exchange of fire at the positions of the Ukrainian armed units," he said. "Our reconnaissance officers said in their reports that an unknown unit of commandoes had stormed and seized a platoon-level fortified strongpoint set up by punitive expeditioners from a nationalistic battalion."
> 
> The case in hand might be precisely targeted elimination of the freewheeling warlords in charge of nationalistic Ukrainian battalions by foreign mercenaries dispatched to the zone of the conflict, Basurin said.
> 
> (....)
> 
> *"However, an open question remains over who did the elimination - a foreign private military company or a special task force from a NATO member-state dispatched to the zone of conflict and described the OSCE monitors in their reports as a third party," Basurin said.*



2)  As WW2 anniversaries are getting closer, UKR is now adopting the poppy as a symbol of remembrance of WW2:





Take THAT, Russia!


----------



## vonGarvin

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> 2)  As WW2 anniversaries are getting closer, UKR is now adopting the poppy as a symbol of remembrance of WW2:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Take THAT, Russia!


As Ukraine makes itself more "West" and less "East", I wonder if they will return to Poland the territory that the USSR took from it in 1939.  (Hint: much of that ground is in Ukraine)

Before:





During:





After (and today):


----------



## Kirkhill

Howcum Germany "Invaded" but Russia "Occupied"?  Where are you getting you're info TV?

As to whether Galicia - Volhynia is part of Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, or even Moldavia is a bit of a moot point.  A point that was resolved after WW2 when everybody (but the Russians) agreed to recognize the borders of 1945 as final.






Looking at this map the Kazakhs or the Cossacks or any other remnants of the Golden Horde might have an equally valid claim.  Certainly their claim to Crimea is  arguably more valid than the Russian claim. Except that the Kazakhs are the Russians "Indians".


----------



## meni0n

Technoviking said:
			
		

> As Ukraine makes itself more "West" and less "East", I wonder if they will return to Poland the territory that the USSR took from it in 1939.  (Hint: much of that ground is in Ukraine)



Sure, if only Poland returns what they got from Germany.


----------



## McG

Technoviking said:
			
		

> As Ukraine makes itself more "West" and less "East", I wonder if they will return to Poland the territory that the USSR took from it in 1939.  (Hint: much of that ground is in Ukraine)





			
				meni0n said:
			
		

> Sure, if only Poland returns what they got from Germany.


Who gets Koenigsberg?


----------



## McG

US and NATO accuse combined separatist-Russian Forces of exploiting ceasefire to prepare and position for next major offensive.  



> Russia repositioning forces for new offensive in Ukraine, U.S. commander says
> Bradley Klapper and Ken Dilanian, The Associated Press
> CTV News
> 30 Apr 2015
> 
> WASHINGTON -- The top U.S. commander for NATO said Thursday that America needs better intelligence on the ground in Ukraine, but that it appears Russian forces have used a recent lull in fighting to reposition for another offensive.
> 
> Gen. Philip Breedlove, commander of NATO forces in Europe, told the Senate Armed Services Committee, that the situation in Ukraine is volatile and fragile and urged Congress to bolster U.S. intelligence capabilities to better understand President Vladimir Putin's intent in the region.
> 
> "Russian military operations over the past year in Ukraine, and the region more broadly, have underscored that there are critical gaps in our collection and analysis," Breedlove said. "Some Russian military exercises have caught us by surprise and our textured feel for Russian involvement on the ground in Ukraine has been quite limited."
> 
> He said the number of Russia intelligence experts has dwindled since the Cold War and intelligence assets of all kind have been shifted to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
> 
> "We cannot be fully certain what Russia will do next and we cannot fully grasp Putin's intent. What we can do is learn from his actions," Breedlove said. "What we do see suggests growing Russian capabilities, significant military modernization and an ambitious strategic intent."
> 
> "Russian forces used the opportunities presented by the recent lull in fighting to reset and reposition while protecting their gains," he said. "Many of their actions are consistent with preparations for another offensive."
> 
> The United States now sees the Ukrainian rebels as a Russian force.
> 
> American officials briefed on intelligence from the region say Russia has significantly deepened its command and control of the militants in eastern Ukraine in recent months, leading the U.S. to quietly introduce a new term: "combined Russian-separatist forces." The State Department used the expression three times in a single statement last week, lambasting Moscow and the insurgents for a series of cease-fire violations in Ukraine.
> 
> The shift in U.S. perceptions could have wide-ranging ramifications, even if the Obama administration has cited close linkages between the pro-Russian separatists and Putin's government in Moscow since violence flared up in Ukraine a year ago.
> 
> By describing them as an integrated force in the east of the country, the U.S. is putting greater responsibility on Russia for the continued fighting. That will make it harder for Russia to persuade the U.S. and Europe to scale back sanctions that are hurting its economy, and for Washington and Moscow to partner on unrelated matters from nuclear nonproliferation to counterterrorism.
> 
> U.S. intelligence agencies signed off on the new language last week, after what officials outlined as increasing evidence of the Russians and separatists working together, training together and operating under a joint command structure that ultimately answers to Russia. The officials weren't authorized to be quoted by name and demanded anonymity.
> 
> Some of that evidence was presented in a statement released by State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf on April 22 after Secretary of State John Kerry raised his concerns by telephone with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
> 
> Harf spoke of Russia's deployment of air defence systems closer to the front lines, increased troop levels near Kharkov, Ukraine's second largest city, and intensified training sessions involving the use of Russian drones. She called the unmanned aerial vehicles "an unmistakable sign of Russia's presence."
> 
> The uprising began after protesters chased Ukraine's pro-Russia president out of power and Moscow responded by annexing the Ukrainian region of Crimea. The insurgency started with miners, farmers and others without military training rebelling against the new government, and quickly expanded. More than 6,000 people have died and a million have been displaced by the conflict.
> 
> Russia's air defence concentration in eastern Ukraine is now at its highest level since August, the U.S. says. Russia has more ground forces at the border than at any point since October. These developments and others have American officials fearful that Moscow and the separatists may be planning an offensive in the coming weeks.
> 
> Associated Press writers Nataliya Vasilyeva in Moscow and Deb Riechmann in Washington contributed to this report.


http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/russia-repositioning-forces-for-new-offensive-in-ukraine-u-s-commander-says-1.2352186


----------



## midget-boyd91

meni0n said:
			
		

> Sure, if only Poland returns what they got from Germany.



They're all waiting on us to set the precedent by returning Grand Manan Island to Maine.


----------



## Kirkhill

They get Grand Manan when we get the Angle  ;D


----------



## MilEME09

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> 1)  An interesting update from Russian media on the (alleged) "getting a grip on private militias" story - highlights mine:



This could also mean the Ukrainian higher ups are going hands off to prevent plans leaking to the Russians. Sounds like they were caught off guard by the raid


----------



## vonGarvin

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> Howcum Germany "Invaded" but Russia "Occupied"?  Where are you getting you're info TV?



Good catch.  I didn't notice the "variations" on the "military exercises" in Poland coming from the East 

I guess it's perspective?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Technoviking said:
			
		

> As Ukraine makes itself more "West" and less "East", I wonder if they will return to Poland the territory that the USSR took from it in 1939.  (Hint: much of that ground is in Ukraine) ....


Ah, just like Yugoslavia - more history than land.  



			
				MilEME09 said:
			
		

> This could also mean the Ukrainian higher ups are going hands off to prevent plans leaking to the Russians. Sounds like they were caught off guard by the raid


Another theory:  are militias fighting amongst themselves, maybe?  Earlier stories talked about UKR paras dealing with one militia battalion, but only Russian media has shared the "arm's-length-outsider purge" theory.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> Howcum Germany "Invaded" but Russia "Occupied"?


Also part of the current UKR anti-communist line (given some bits of UKR-USSR history) - how one Russian media outlet portrays it:

_"Ukrainian Memorial Project Presents USSR-Free Version of WWII"_
_"Hijacking History: Ukraine Erasing USSR's Contribution to Victory in WWII"_
 and, taken the next step ....

_"Sweeping Dark Past Under Legal Rug: Ukraine Recognizes Ultranationalists as Freedom Fighters"_


----------



## KerryBlue

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Also part of the current UKR anti-communist line (given some bits of UKR-USSR history) - how one Russian media outlet portrays it:
> 
> _"Ukrainian Memorial Project Presents USSR-Free Version of WWII"_
> _"Hijacking History: Ukraine Erasing USSR's Contribution to Victory in WWII"_
> and, taken the next step ....
> 
> _"Sweeping Dark Past Under Legal Rug: Ukraine Recognizes Ultranationalists as Freedom Fighters"_



This whole thing with UPA(Ukrainian Insurgent Army) bothers me. My grandfather fought with them during WWII, and they are portrayed poorly by both sides. They were young men who were fighting to protect their country and were at the raw end of the stick because they were smack dab in between the Russian's who they loathed and the German's who used them and treated them as if they were below them. The men of UPA did what they had to do to survive and try fighting against both sides. My grandfather would never consider himself an ultra nationalist and certainly didn't take place in any ethnic cleansing. Also the 14th SS=/= UPA/OUN.  Considering that UPA and OUN were propsed and formed as early as 1941/42 and the 14th SS wasn't formed until 1943 its pretty safe to say that those in the 14th did not represent those in UPA/OUN.


----------



## Kirkhill

KerryBlue said:
			
		

> This whole thing with UPA(Ukrainian Insurgent Army) bothers me. My grandfather fought with them during WWII, and they are portrayed poorly by both sides. They were young men who were fighting to protect their country and were at the raw end of the stick because they were smack dab in between the Russian's who they loathed and the German's who used them and treated them as if they were below them. The men of UPA did what they had to do to survive and try fighting against both sides. My grandfather would never consider himself an ultra nationalist and certainly didn't take place in any ethnic cleansing. Also the 14th SS=/= UPA/OUN.  Considering that UPA and OUN were propsed and formed as early as 1941/42 and the 14th SS wasn't formed until 1943 its pretty safe to say that those in the 14th did not represent those in UPA/OUN.



KerryBlue

Your grandfather had lots of company.  The whole nation of Finns found themselves in a similar position.

Russia invaded Finland in 1939 and Finns on skis were the darlings of the newsreels.  But they got no help from the west (just like the Poles, Czechs and Ukrainians and a bunch of others).  After Barbarossa - on the principle of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" - they were equipped by the Germans (and their aircraft wore the Swastika in the same manner that all of the Allied gear wore the Invasion Star).   After the war everybody forgot about the Winter War period and only remembered the Swastika.

Just like after the war everybody forgot about the Soviet inflicted Holodomor and only remembered the images of Ukrainians (or Galicians and  Ruthenians as they were commonly known when they first came to the Prairies) welcoming Germans on to their soil.

In horse country it is easier to define peoples than it is to define lands.  But our whole "Geo"-political system is based on lands with borders for nations of people.  Rivers don't work so well as boundaries because they are equally highways.


----------



## larry Strong

The Finns use of the swastika predates the Continuation War by decades if not centuries  - Finnish folk lore -......just saying....they still use it on some Air Force flags.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Training_Air_Wing,_Finnish_Air_Force



Cheers
Larry


----------



## Kirkhill

Thanks Larry - the education process continues


----------



## The Bread Guy

KerryBlue

I agree that not every anti-Communist was a Nazi or genocidal anti-Semite.

Still, the UPA was fighting the Soviets, albeit sporadically, until the mid-1950's (usual wikipedia caveats), fuelling hatred on the now-Russian side.  Further muddying the waters:  a number of these guys were also involved in fighting the Communists/helping the Germans, further tainting the anti-Communist brand.  All this feeds into the Russians' "all those Ukrainians are Nazis" messaging.  

On the other side, there's no shortage of Communist history in Ukraine to leave a LOT of folks with a bad taste in their mouths about anything "Soviet" or Communist, too.

Again with the "too much history" cliche ....


----------



## CougarKing

Ukraine trying to regain the initiative:

International Business Times



> *Ukraine Attacks Donetsk People’s Republic With Tanks, Grenade Launchers: Is Kiev Violating Ceasefire Deal?*
> 
> Ukraine's military reportedly attacked territory in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic with tanks, infantry combat vehicles, armored vehicles, grenade launchers and small arms for more than 24 hours, according to Tass, a Russian state-run media outlet. In all, Kiev launched more than 30 attacks against the area held by pro-Russia rebels, the DPR’s defense ministry said on Saturday.
> 
> "A total of 30 ceasefire violations have been registered, including three artillery shellings, 11 mortar shellings and the launch of an anti-tank guided missile," the ministry representative said. There is no information about the casualties, he added.
> 
> Ukrainian military officials, meanwhile, accused the separatist rebels of killing two Ukrainian serviceman in attacks on government forces in eastern Ukraine on Friday. "In the past 24 hours the situation in the conflict zone remained not quiet, but under control. Rebels continue to use weapons banned under the Minsk agreement," military spokesman Andriy Lysenko said, according to Reuters.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## Cdn Blackshirt

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> Ukraine trying to regain the initiative:
> 
> International Business Times



Not sure if I'd take anything from TASS, RU, Sputnik, LifeNews, etc. too seriously....they've proven to be mouthpieces for the Kremlin misinformation campaign in this conflict.  I remember reading their 'reports' on the Crimea and the 'Kiev Junta' and just slapping myself in the forehead in disbelief.  In this case, my big worry is that the Kremlin media organs are rolling out their casus belli to justify another DNR/LNR offensive.  Let's all hope that's not the case.


----------



## MilEME09

Things are for sure heating up, over the past 3 days the number of hot spots as increased daily, heres the latest map.


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> Things are for sure heating up, over the past 3 days the number of hot spots as increased daily, heres the latest map.



Those cunning Ukrainians - blowing themselves up like that.  It would be far to obvious a strategy to blow things up "inside" the Russian held territory.


----------



## MilEME09

> *Ukraine erects 'Project Wall' on Russian border, critics fear expensive failure*
> 
> nna Varenitsa, The Associated Press
> Published Wednesday, May 6, 2015 10:26AM EDT
> 
> HOPTIVKA, Ukraine -- The flimsy, razor wire-topped fences popping up along bare expanses of Ukraine's eastern frontier are the first line of defence against a much-feared Russian invasion. Trenches fortified by timber have been hollowed out for soldiers to take up positions. And bulky, metallic obstacles looped together with more barbed wire are laid across the fields to halt advancing tanks and infantry.
> 
> A little more than a year and-a-half ago, the very idea of creating such fortifications -- reminiscent of First World War trench warfare -- would have struck many as perverse. But the project was announced with fanfare in summer as fighting against Moscow-backed separatists reached peak intensity. In December, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said that the program, dubbed "Project Wall," would cost almost $520 million and take four years to complete.
> 
> Now doubts are creeping in.
> 
> With much of eastern Ukraine in the hands of Russian-backed separatists, large swaths of the border remain impossible to secure -- meaning enemy troops can just sneak in through areas under rebel control. And cash-strapped authorities have already had to revise budgets downward, so there's little money for building defences.
> 
> The project is for now centred on the Kharkiv region, which lies north of the conflict zone and shares a 315-kilometre border with Russia. To insulate that region from any separatist offensive, another layer of protection is being built on the frontier with areas under rebel control.
> 
> Views are mixed among residents in the city of Kharkiv, the regional capital, about the wisdom of building defences.
> 
> Some in the economic powerhouse of 1.4 million people embrace the idea, and look with distress to the fate that befell the neighbouring, mainly Russian-speaking Donetsk and Luhansk regions. More than 6,000 people have died to date as a result of fighting between government and rebel forces.
> 
> "We need to protect ourselves somehow," said Sergei Kotlyar, 46. "But, of course, this won't give us 100 per cent guarantees, even if it holds back the enemy for a little time."
> 
> Others believe investing in fences and trenches is a waste of money, noting that anti-tank defences will be of limited use against the rocket launchers widely deployed over the course of the war.
> 
> "Who is it going to stop?" said 22-year old Kharkiv resident Anatasia Duda. "A country like Russia definitely has the means to deal with slabs of metal. And what's the use of that wall when the border with Donetsk isn't even under control?"
> 
> In earlier times, lines separating the republics of the Soviet Union were viewed as little more than a formality, so families and communities straddled inconspicuously across borders. On paper, that changed with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
> 
> But scant security along the 2,300-kilometre (1,400-mile) demarcation between Russia and Ukraine has for two decades ensured a smuggler's dream. Farmers and their livestock blithely crisscrossed in areas where it has never quite been entirely clear which country one was in.
> 
> Separatist fighters in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions have exploited the porous borders, moving about with ease. Ukraine accuses Russia of pouring its own army's equipment and manpower across the border to assist rebel offensives. Moscow dismisses all satellite imagery and anecdotal evidence underpinning those claims.
> 
> Ukrainian border guards fought bitterly to keep the frontier sealed against overwhelming odds.
> 
> "We know from the experience of fighting in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions that fire comes from the neighbouring state (of Russia) without them having to cross the border," said Oleksandr Kruk, head of the Kharkiv regional division of the border service.
> 
> On top of creating physical barriers, Ukraine is also fortifying obstacles of red tape to deter the numerous Russian citizens known to have voluntarily joined forces with local separatists.
> 
> Rules for crossing official frontier points have been stiffened. In Hoptivka, people stand impatiently in crowded and slow-moving lines to get into Russia for work or to visit relatives.
> 
> Russian citizens can only enter Ukraine on their international travel passports, whereas they could formerly sail through with their national ID cards. Closer checks by border guards have also slowed things down.
> 
> Fifty kilometres of fences have already gone up, but not without complications. The exact co-ordinates for the location of the fence are hard to fix since the process of demarcating borders after the collapse of the Soviet Union was never properly completed.
> 
> Rather than wait around for a laboriously negotiated agreement, Ukraine's security leadership last June unilaterally marked out what it sees as the country's eastern limits.
> 
> Although it is illegal to own property within 50 metres of the border, people near the new fences have been granted control over the land all the same, said Kharkiv regional government Igor Raynin.
> 
> "We are not prepared to tell people that this was not done properly and to confiscate land through the courts," Raynin said.
> 
> The fortifications under construction go further back than the immediate line with Russia itself. Trenches, shelters and parking areas for armoured vehicles have been built along highways running southward from Russia past Kharkiv, a hive of Soviet-built industry.
> 
> With the government forced to cut costs across the board as the economy struggles under the weight of war, the budget for the project has been reduced twofold.
> 
> But Raynin insists the project is still sound.
> 
> "This has been done in such a way that the quality of the wall will not suffer adversely," he said.
> 
> Peter Leonard contributed from Kyiv, Ukraine.
> 
> http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/ukraine-erects-project-wall-on-russian-border-critics-fear-expensive-failure-1.2361407


----------



## The Bread Guy

So, for the WW2 victory parades, are Russian military vehicles taking part in parades in eastern Ukraine (Luhansk), or are the separatists using the same logo as the Russians and committing some sort of copyright violation?

Discuss.


----------



## MilEME09

While slightly different, it shows once again the links between the separatists and the Russian military, if they have the same paint scheme its easy for Russia to give them equipment thats already the right colour right?


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> While slightly different, it shows once again the links between the separatists and the Russian military, if they have the same paint scheme its easy for Russia to give them equipment thats already the right colour right?


Could be - Or are Russian units being ballsy enough to parade in occupied Ukraine?


----------



## MilEME09

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Could be - Or are Russian units being ballsy enough to parade in occupied Ukraine?



I suspect both, But judging from the maps put out by the government, the NATO predictions of a offensive after Victory day may come true.


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Interesting view of tensions between the UKR military, security services and some militias ....
> 
> Right Sector blog (in Ukrainian):  Ukrainian paras surrounded our base
> UKR MoD Info-machine (English):  Paras were doing training, as well as "The parties discussed issues of preliminary agreements concerning cooperation and integration of the Volunteer Ukrainian Corps into the Armed Forces of Ukraine"
> Security Service of Ukraine boss (English):  "“Pravyi Sector” fighters, experienced in battles for the independence of Ukraine, will enhance the Ukrainian Army, Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, the SSU Head, stated on his return from the anti-terrorist operation zone"
> An interesting overview of this one in English at a pro-Ukrainian blog here.
> 
> Meanwhile, Canadian MP's appear to be on the ground, and Canada helps the National Guard get night vision.


Some of the latest friction between government and the Right Sector, via the UKR Info-machine ....


> Right Sector Website Statement*** regarding an alleged military crackdown of soldiers of the Volunteer Ukrainian Corps (DUK ‘Pravyi Sector’) at Desna Training Centre in case of their refusal to leave the territory till the evening May 9 is false.
> 
> Today, DUK soldiers stay in a building on the territory of the 169th Training Centre of the Ukrainian Land Forces. There was taken a decision to repair this building and use it for training of Ukrainian servicemen. The DUK leaders were informed about this decision in advance and they were asked to speed up the process of DUK joining to the army.
> 
> High officials of the Armed Forces of Ukraine keep in touch with DUK leaders regarding the process of integration of its soldiers to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, thus, there is no any military confrontation.
> 
> On May 10, the MoD working group will explain advantages and social guarantees of the Ukrainian servicemen specified in the current law to DUK soldiers.


*** - Link to statement in Ukrainian

Meanwhile, UKR's DefMin says "nothing to see here, all is well."


----------



## CougarKing

Putin's military units in Ukraine now facing a morale/mass desertion problem?

Reuters



> *Special Report: Russian soldiers quit over Ukraine*
> 
> By Maria Tsvetkova
> 
> MOSCOW/DONETSK (Reuters) - *Some Russian soldiers are quitting the army because of the conflict in Ukraine, several soldiers and human rights activists have told Reuters. Their accounts call into question the Kremlin's continued assertions that no Russian soldiers have been sent to Ukraine, and that any Russians fighting alongside rebels there are volunteers.*
> 
> Evidence for Russians fighting in Ukraine – Russian army equipment found in the country, testimony from soldiers' families and from Ukrainians who say they were captured by Russian paratroopers – is abundant. Associates of Boris Nemtsov, a prominent Kremlin critic killed in February, will soon publish a report which they say will contain new evidence of the Russian military presence in Ukraine.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## MilEME09

latest map





notice small gains have been made by the rebels, Debaltseve is now well inside rebel territory for example. The cease fire is in taters, and heavy weapons are no longer being brought back, and fighting is increasing, the calm of winter is over, i expect heavy fighting this summer.


----------



## Kirkhill

Volnovakha.  

It is the one war aim previously telegraphed from Moscow that has not yet been taken.  And it is quiet in that area.


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> Volnovakha.
> 
> It is the one war aim previously telegraphed from Moscow that has not yet been taken.  And it is quiet in that area.



Maybe there is another objective they want to take first? or being quiet there could be the most basic of ploys, divert resources elsewhere


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> Maybe there is another objective they want to take first?


Like, say, maybe a port city?

Meanwhile, MOAR Canadian help to Ukraine ....


> The Honourable Rob Nicholson, P.C., Q.C., M.P. for Niagara Falls, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today announced new support to enhance the capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in their fight to defend their country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Canada will contribute $1.2 million to build additional capacity within the medical system of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence.
> 
> Canada also delivered individual tactical medical kits today to 100 Ukrainian soldiers at a military base in Desna, north of Kyiv. The delivery, Canada’s latest transfer of non-lethal equipment to Ukraine, took place at an event attended by Roman Waschuk, Canada’s Ambassador to Ukraine, and Colonel Oleksiy Vukolov, commander of the Desna military base.
> Quick Facts
> 
> Today’s announcement follows two days of training that prepared Ukrainian soldiers to treat combat-related injuries and to use these Canadian medical kits. This training was an initiative of Toronto’s Ukrainian World Congress and was provided by Patriot Defence, a Kyiv-based volunteer group.
> Canada is providing a total of 1,600 tactical medical kits and a mobile field hospital. This is in addition to the donations provided in the last months, with Canada having provided the Ukrainian Armed Forces approximately 30,000 sets of coats, pants and ballistic eyewear, 70,000 pairs of cold and wet weather boots, 7,000 helmets, 2,300 protective vests, 300 first aid kits, 100 tents and 735 sleeping bags; 238 night-vision goggles are also being provided.
> Canada will deploy approximately 200 Canadian Armed Forces personnel to Ukraine until March 31, 2017, to develop and deliver military training and capacity-building programs for Ukrainian forces personnel.
> 
> (....)


----------



## Kirkhill

Volnovakha sits on the road and rail link between Donetsk and Mariupol.


----------



## CougarKing

Another Russian/separatist offensive brewing?

Reuters



> *NATO: Russia has equipped Ukraine rebels to attack at short notice*
> 
> By Adrian Croft
> 
> BRUSSELS (Reuters) - NATO's chief said on Monday that Russia had built up forces on the border with Ukraine and sent more military hardware into eastern Ukraine, enabling pro-Russia separatists to launch attacks with little warning if they chose.
> 
> "There has been a Russian build-up, both along the borders between Russia and Ukraine but also inside eastern Ukraine, with a steady flow of heavy equipment, tanks, artillery, ammunition, air defense systems and a lot of training," alliance Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told a news conference.
> 
> "So they have the capacity, the capability to launch new attacks with very little warning time. But of course no one can say anything with certainty about the intention."
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## KerryBlue

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> I suspect both, But judging from the maps put out by the government, the NATO predictions of a offensive after Victory day may come true.


  

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ribbon_of_Saint_George 

Since 2005 its basically a anti-Ukraine, pro Russia symbol. So the Russian equipment wearing it during the May day parade is a big F U to the west and Ukraine.


----------



## The Bread Guy

A few updates ....

UKR to make it easier for foreigners, "stateless" people to join the military.
No more free-wheeling cell phone use by UKR troops in the war zone.
UKR parliament passes possible martial law rules that could allow Russian citizens to be "relocated" if necessary.


----------



## The Bread Guy

While Russians captured in Ukraine claim to be from a Spetznaz brigade in Togliatti, Russia, BBC (in Russian) reports a protest has popped up outside the base regarding some missing military folk.


----------



## MilEME09

in similar news this was posted by the Ukrainian government

GS of Ukraine will host a briefing ‘Participation of RF servicemen in armed conflict in east of Ukraine’


> Today, on May 18, at 04:00 p.m., the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will host a briefing ‘Participation of RF servicemen in armed conflict in the east of Ukraine’.
> 
> Because of capture of RF servicemen on May 16 near town of Shchastya (Luhansk oblast), the General Staff of Ukraine will host a briefing ‘Participation of RF servicemen in armed conflict in the east of Ukraine’.
> 
> Chief of General Staff Col. Gen. Viktor Muzhenko, Commander of the 92nd Detached Mechanized Brigade Col. Viktor Nikolyuk will take part in the briefing.
> 
> You will have an opportunity to communicate with captured RF servicemen after the briefing at a defined place.



http://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2015/05/18/attention!-at-0400-p-m-gs-of-ukraine-will-host-a-briefing-%E2%80%98participation-of-rf-servicemen-in-armed-conflict-in-east-of-ukraine/


----------



## McG

I guess these guys are legally not POW either, since Russia claims they are all there on leave (with their fighting vehicles) and not as agents of Russia.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MCG said:
			
		

> I guess these guys are legally not POW either, since Russia claims they are all there on leave (with their fighting vehicles) and not as agents of Russia.


A Twitter giggle from a former Swedish PM along these very lines ....


> I hear Russian general saying men caught in Ukraine “not active soliders at the moment of their detention”. Clearly not. Only just before.



Meanwhile, a bit more from the Ukrainian MoD Info-machine here and here on this ....


> Servicemen of the 3rd Brigade of Special Forces, Main Intelligence Directorate of the RF General Staff, quickly leave Bryanka town in Luhansk oblast. The personnel return to permanent disposition. An aircraft which will airlift them to Russian Samara landed on the airfield in Millerovo (Rostov oblast, RF).
> 
> The redeployment of Russian special forces soldiers started when the Ukrainian party demonstrated to the whole world the evidence of the presence of the Russian servicemen in the east of Ukraine.
> 
> Thus, Russian Federation tries to conceal the fact of the presence of the Russian soldiers in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts ....





> The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces hosted a briefing of Col. Gen. Viktor Muzhenko, Chief of General Staff, and Col. Viktor Nikolyuk, Commander of the 92nd Detached Mechanized Brigade.
> 
> “On May 16, about 03:00 p.m., there was a fighting between sabotage and reconnaissance group of militants and Ukrainian forces units near Shchastya (Luhansk oblast). During this fighting, servicemen of the 92nd Detached Mechanized Brigade captured two Russian Special Forces soldiers. Russian servicemen were wounded,” Col. Gen. Viktor Muzhenko stated.
> 
> According to him, these servicemen are Capt. Euvhen Yerofeyev, Leading Officer of the Special Forces Group, 3rd Brigade of the RF Armed Forces, and Sgt Olexander Aleksandrov.
> 
> Representatives of defence security intelligence interviewed them and defined they were servicemen of the 3rdDetached Guard Brigade of Special Forces of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the RF General Staff (military unit 21208, Tolyatti, Commander — Col. Shchepin S.A.).
> 
> RF servicemen had RF assault rifle and special sniper rifle which Russian Special Forces soldiers are armed with.
> 
> ‘This is 9 mm special sniper rifle (also called Serdyukov Sniper Rifle, VSS, ‘Vintorez’). Ukrainian servicemen are not armed with such rifles. This is a Russian weapon used by Special Forces units. This rifle is nearly silent and has high penetration capability. 9 mm bullet easily penetrates 1-2nd class armour vest, bullet with tungsten carbide slug penetrates 8-10 mm of armour or 4th class armour vest from a distance of 100 m. The 3rd class armour vest may be destroyed from a distance of 400 m.
> 
> Qualified medical aid was rendered to the captured servicemen in Kramatorsk city hospital. According to Capt. Euvhen Yerofeyev and Sgt Olexander Aleksandrov, they arrived to militants-controlled territory within their brigade in March 2015 and accomplished sabotage and reconnaissance tasks against the Ukrainian units.
> 
> On May 16, they received a task to carry out the reconnaissance of Luhansk thermal power plant, define the state of its protection for its further capture by militants of so-called LDR. There are evidences proving the Russian citizenship of captured servicemen, their addresses, education, employment, relatives living in the Russian Federation.
> 
> The 92nd brigade lost one serviceman; three servicemen were wounded during this fighting.
> 
> When the militants understood that RF servicemen were captured they shelled servicemen with roving mortars. It was obvious they tried to kill them in order to prevent their capture.
> 
> Captured servicemen witnessed that servicemen of Russian regular army were present in Ukraine.



More on the 3rd Guards Separate 'Warsaw-Berlin Red Banner Order of Suvorov 3rd degree' Spetsnaz Brigade (usual Wikipedia caveats) here.


----------



## The Bread Guy

On the lighter side, Russian media headline writers get a chance to have some fun with the UKR government still seeking to punish a Crimea-based prosecutor who defected to the Russians ....







> *Crimea's Poklonskaya: Putting The 'Cute' in 'Prosecute'*
> 
> Natalia Poklonskaya, Prosecutor General of Crimea, celebrates her birthday on the same day when the republic and the Russian government signed the treaty of reunification in 2014.
> 
> Natalia Poklonskaya, Prosecutor General of Crimea, who became one of the symbols of the so-called "Russian spring", celebrates her 35th birthday on March 18.
> 
> It may seem like a curious coincidence, but she celebrates her birthday on the same day when Crimea and the Russian government signed the treaty of reunification in 2014.
> 
> Poklonskaya was born in the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic of the Soviet Union, and later her family moved to Crimea. She worked as an attorney in Ukraine from 2002 to 2014 in various offices ....


She apparently also has a following among anime fans ....












Go, Natalia!


----------



## The Bread Guy

Really?
_"Russia Is Using Mobile Crematoriums to Hide Ukraine's Dead"_

Over in Ukraine, the "pitchforking through the manure pile" continues ....

_“(UKR) Military Prosecutor’s Office in conjunction with Security Service exposed a number of corrupt officials among military personnel in ATO area”_ - UKR Prosecutor's Office statement (in Ukrainian) 
_“Ukrainian Defense Minister assigned check on the fact of non-payment of cash collateral to servicemen. Perpetrators will be brought to justice – Ministry of Defence”_
_“Prosecutors: Corrupt Ukrainian officials on border with separatist territories sell passports, help draft dodgers”_

Meanwhile, the UKR MoD's fundraising drive has pulled in more than CDN $9M - keep those pledges coming!


----------



## McG

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Really?
> _"Russia Is Using Mobile Crematoriums to Hide Ukraine's Dead"_


National Post ran the same story of Russia burning their dead to hide the existence of casualties.
http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/u-s-lawmakers-say-russia-trying-to-hide-their-casualties-by-taking-mobile-crematoriums-into-ukraine

If the Russian government will go so such length to hide casualties, it makes one wonder what care surviving casualties can hope to get.


----------



## MilEME09

MCG said:
			
		

> National Post ran the same story of Russia burning their dead to hide the existence of casualties.
> http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/u-s-lawmakers-say-russia-trying-to-hide-their-casualties-by-taking-mobile-crematoriums-into-ukraine
> 
> If the Russian government will go so such length to hide casualties, it makes one wonder what care surviving casualties can hope to get.



Atleast VAC acknowledges the conflicts we've been in, feel bad for these guys


In other News



> Exclusive: Russia masses heavy firepower on border with Ukraine - witness
> 
> Russia's army is massing troops and hundreds of pieces of weaponry including mobile rocket launchers, tanks and artillery at a makeshift base near the border with Ukraine, a Reuters reporter saw this week.
> 
> Many of the vehicles have number plates and identifying marks removed while many of the servicemen had taken insignia off their fatigues. As such, they match the appearance of some of the forces spotted in eastern Ukraine, which Kiev and its Western allies allege are covert Russian detachments.
> 
> The scene at the base on the Kuzminsky firing range, around 50 km (30 miles) from the border, offers some of the clearest evidence to date of what appeared to be a concerted Russian military build-up in the area.
> 
> Earlier this month, NATO military commander General Philip Breedlove said he believed the separatists were taking advantage of a ceasefire that came into force in February to re-arm and prepare for a new offensive. However, he gave no specifics.
> 
> Russia denies that its military is involved in the conflict in Ukraine's east, where Moscow-backed separatists have been fighting forces loyal to the pro-Western government in Kiev.
> 
> Russia's defense ministry said it had no immediate comment about the build-up. Several soldiers said they had been sent to the base for simple military exercises, suggesting their presence was unconnected to the situation in Ukraine.
> 
> Asked by Reuters if large numbers of unmarked weaponry and troops without insignia at the border indicated that Russia planned to invade Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said during a conference call with reporters:
> 
> "I find the wording of this question, 'if an invasion is being prepared', inappropriate as such."
> 
> The weapons being delivered there included Uragan multiple rocket launchers, tanks and self-propelled howitzers -- all weapon types that have been used in the conflict in eastern Ukraine between Kiev's forces and separatists.
> 
> The amount of military hardware at the base was about three times greater than in March this year, when Reuters journalists were previously in the area. At that time, only a few dozen pieces of equipment were in view.
> 
> Over the course of fours days starting on Saturday, Reuters saw four goods trains with military vehicles and troops arriving at a rail station in the Rostov region of southern Russia, with at least two trainloads traveling on by road to the base.
> 
> A large section of dirt road leading across the steppe from the Kuzminsky range to the Ukrainian border had been freshly repaired, making it more passable for heavy vehicles.
> 
> The road leads to a quiet border crossing typically only used by local residents. On the other side is Ukraine's Luhansk region, which is controlled by separatists and has been the scene of intense fighting.
> 
> MARCHING ORDERS
> 
> Valentina Melnikova, a human rights campaigner who works closely with families of Russian servicemen, said she had information that Rostov region was being used as a staging post for troops on their way to Ukraine.
> 
> She said the information came from the mother of a serviceman stationed in the town of Totskoye, in the Orenburg region near Russia's border with Kazakhstan.
> 
> Melnikova said the serviceman heard from commanders that "they are going to be transferred to Rostov region after May 20 and then to Ukraine. They signed papers about non-disclosure of information and about acting voluntarily.
> 
> "Of course it was an order. How could it be voluntarily? They are servicemen," said Melnikova, who runs the Moscow-based Alliance of Soldiers' Mothers Committees.
> 
> Her account could not be independently verified by Reuters.
> 
> In some cases where Russian citizens have been captured in Ukraine by forces loyal to Kiev, Russian officials have said they were there of their own accord and were either on leave from the armed forces or had quit the military.
> 
> More military hardware trundles into the Matveev Kurgan railway station on goods trains every day.
> 
> A train that pulled in on Tuesday was carrying 16 T-72 tanks, and a number of military trucks.
> 
> A local woman who was at the station with a pre-school age girl looked at the tanks on flat-bed rail cars, sighed, and said: "Nothing surprises me any more."
> 
> Over the four days, trains arrived delivering a total of at least 26 tanks, about 30 Uragan launchers, dozens of trucks as well as several armored personnel carriers and self-propelled howitzers.
> 
> On two occasions, after the trains had been unloaded, reporters followed the column of vehicles to the firing range -- a location that has already been linked indirectly to the fighting in Ukraine.
> 
> Bellingcat, a British-based group of volunteers who use social media to investigate conflicts, analyzed postings by Russian soldiers on social network accounts, including geo-location tags on photos, and concluded that some of those in Ukraine had earlier been at the Kuzminsky range.
> 
> A former Russian soldier said last year, when he was on active military service, that he underwent training at the range and was later sent up to the Ukrainian border. Once at the border he was ordered to fire Grad rockets, although he said he could not be certain they were fired into Ukraine. He also said some members of his unit had crossed into Ukraine.
> 
> "That's a very big firing range. We studied for two weeks, we had a quick course. After that we got the order and went to the border," said the former soldier, who did not want to be identified because the operation has not been made public.
> 
> http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/27/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-military-idUSKBN0OC2K820150527?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews


----------



## McG

President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree to make losses of Russian troops in peacetime a secret.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/putin-signs-law-banning-publication-of-peacetime-military-casualties-1.3091950

So, I know Russia has a tradition of spending its soldiers' lives as a sort of currency ... But, when a nation sends it soldiers into harms way, denies they have sent soldiers int harms way, incinerates bodies to hide the evidence, and makes it criminal to publish that there have been casualties, how long can that nation maintain its soldiers' moral and loyalties?


----------



## a_majoor

MCG said:
			
		

> President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree to make losses of Russian troops in peacetime a secret.
> 
> http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/putin-signs-law-banning-publication-of-peacetime-military-casualties-1.3091950
> 
> So, I know Russia has a tradition of spending its soldiers' lives as a sort of currency ... But, when a nation sends it soldiers into harms way, denies they have sent soldiers int harms way, incinerates bodies to hide the evidence, and makes it criminal to publish that there have been casualties, *how long can that nation maintain its soldiers' moral and loyalties?*



As long as they can put unreliable soldiers into penal battalions and follow advancing troops with _zagraditelnye otriady_ to prevent desertion...


----------



## a_majoor

Eastern Europe makes more moves to assert their departure from the Russian sphere is permanent. At the current time, the idea that the US will act as a "trip wire" is somewhat problematic, but as the article points out, many of the Eastern European nations are now embarking on "self help" programs as well:

http://www.strategypage.com/on_point/2015060220758.aspx



> *Confessions of a NATO Trip Wire: Why Poles and Balts Want US Trip Wire Forces*
> by Austin Bay
> June 2, 2015
> 
> Occasionally referred to as The Three Musketeers Clause, the NATO treaty's Article 5 exemplifies the hard diplomacy that won the Cold War. The daring French musketeers promised one for all and all for one. Article 5 made a similar serious commitment.
> 
> Unfortunately, in 2015, as Vladimir Putin's Kremlin attacks Ukraine, NATO's Eastern European members --particularly Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia -- are no longer certain Article 5's pledge is iron-clad.
> 
> In Article 5, NATO members agreed, "that an armed attack against one or more of them ... shall be considered an attack against them all." Each member would then take "action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain" NATO security. The enemy had to attack a member's territory or member "forces, vessels or aircraft" operating "in or over" NATO territory.
> 
> That last clause told the Kremlin that an attack on U.S. soldiers in West Germany would trigger Article 5. Observers referred to U.S. soldiers on the "intra-German border" as "trip wires." And we were. I served a year in a U.S. Army armored cavalry regiment covering the Fulda Gap invasion corridor. From one of our observation posts we could watch the Soviet tank regiment stationed in Meiningen, East Germany, exercise on a live-fire range a short seven kilometers from the border. The regiment had over 100 T-62 main battle tanks. Four Russian divisions were positioned to follow the forward regiment. Occasionally, our ready-to-go reaction force consisted of two tanks. However, if the Russians "attacked from garrison" (a type of surprise attack), they would have to fight us. Even if this first battle was fatally brief, our resistance guaranteed Moscow faced a global war. The Russians knew the U.S. Air Force could shatter their tank divisions. The U.S. Navy would maul the Soviet fleet.
> 
> Our physical presence sent two strategic diplomatic messages. Hey, Obama administration smart diplomacy practitioners, listen up.
> 
> Message One: We encouraged aggressive Kremlin war planners to avoid actualizing their aggression. Think twice; then go have a shot of vodka.
> 
> Message Two: We assured other NATO members that the U.S. would fulfill its Article 5 commitment. We were there to deter conflict. We bet that George Kennan was right. Contain the Soviets. After frustrating their aggression, at some point they would "mellow."
> 
> Vladimir Putin and his Kremlin pals have "de-mellowed." According to Putin, NATO and the U.S. are enemies, and our policies provocations. This repeats 1975 Soviet agitprop, which described my out-gunned unit as an imperialist occupier. Hey, Vlad, let me abuse words just like you do, buddy, to satirize your lies. We sure were provocative. We provoked second thoughts, you old KGB colonel, you. We intentionally provoked frustration in you and other Communist imperialists.
> 
> NATO's 21st-century eastern flank needs trip wires. To Poles and Balts, Putin's 2014 seizure and annexation of Crimea confirmed his aggressive intent. It also confirmed his disregard for treaties and high-stakes inclination to test U.S. resolve. In pulling off the Crimea caper, Putin shattered the 1994 Budapest Accord, in which Russia guaranteed Ukrainian territorial sovereignty in exchange for Ukraine's nuclear weapons.
> 
> Last year, Poland's foreign minister said NATO should station two heavy (armored) brigades on Polish soil. In May 2015, senior officials in the Baltic states asked the U.S. to establish permanent military garrisons in their countries. At the present time, the U.S. will briefly send units to Poland and the Balts (rotational units). NATO also conducts fairly robust exercises in these countries.
> 
> To Eastern Europeans, rotation, unfortunately, implies transitory.
> 
> This is not a case where our allies are asking Uncle Sam to bear the burden while they party in France. *In February, Poland launched a $36 billion defense modernization and expansion program.* Poles and Balts want U.S. forces to, you know, provoke Putin -- provoke the wisdom of peaceful second thoughts.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, from Russian government-owned media, on the OTHER side of Ukraine ....






> *Kiev’s Blockade of Transnistria Fraught With New War*
> 
> On May 21 the Ukrainian parliament voted to suspend all military cooperation with Russia. The new law effectively terminated the 1998 agreement on the transit of Russian military units to Transnistria through the territory of Ukraine.
> 
> Kiev's decision to scrap its military cooperation agreements with Russia, including transit rights for Russian peacekeepers and equipment to Transnistria, have created the potential to destabilize regional security, says Transnistrian Foreign Minister Nina Shtanski.
> 
> Simultaneously, Moldova tightened the rules of transit for Russian military personnel traveling via Chisinau airport.
> 
> Chisinau had periodically blocked and deported Russian soldiers who were not clearly identified as international peacekeepers or who had failed to give sufficient advance notice.
> 
> Even though much cooperation was of course already suspended, throughout the current crisis Russia had been able to use Ukrainian territory to supply its peacekeepers in Transnistria, a narrow strip of land on Ukraine's western border. No longer.
> 
> Russia’s response was quick and stern.
> 
> "The Ministry of Defense is left with no other option than to supply Russian forces with all the necessities by air bridge, with military-transport aircraft," Yuri Yakubov, a senior Russian MoD official, said after the Ukrainian vote.
> 
> "The Russian contingent will be supplied under any circumstances," he added.
> 
> Adding to Russia’s worries, the Moldovan authorities have reportedly been arresting and deporting Russian soldiers who try to fly into Moldova en route to Transnistria.
> 
> Moldova hasn't stopped all Russian soldiers from traveling through its territory — only those not in the Moldova-supported peacekeeping mission, and only those who don't give a month's notice that they will be traveling to Moldova.
> 
> Of the roughly 1,500 Russian troops stationed in Moldova, about 1,000 are in the Operational Group of Russian Forces in Moldova, which Moldova does not support; the rest are peacekeepers regulated by the Joint Control Commission, which includes representatives of Moldova, Transnistria, and Russia ....



More from the _Financial Times_:


> *Transnistria shapes up as next Ukraine-Russia flashpoint *
> 
> Keep an eye on Transnistria, the pro-Russian breakaway state in Moldova. On Monday, Dmitri Trenin, one of Russia’s best-known foreign policy analysts and a man with good Kremlin antennae, tweeted: “Growing concern in Moscow that Ukraine and Moldova will seek to squeeze Transnistria hard, provoking conflict with Russia.” On Tuesday, a columnist in the pro-Kremlin Izvestia newspaper warned that Russia “seriously faces the prospect of a repeat of the [2008] situation” – when it went to war with Georgia – “this time around Transnistria”.
> 
> What sparked the tensions was a May 21 vote in Ukraine’s parliament to suspend military co-operation with Russia. That included a 1995 agreement giving Russia military transit rights across Ukraine to reach Transnistria, which borders Ukraine’s Odessa region.
> 
> Russian peacekeepers have been deployed in the unrecognised statelet since its brief war for independence from ex-Soviet Moldova in 1992, and Russia has a base there with about 1,350 soldiers and heavy weapons. Losing access via Ukraine means Russia must resupply its base by air through Chisinau, the Moldovan capital, and across Moldovan territory.
> 
> But Moscow complains Moldova has recently detained and deported several Russian soldiers. Mr Trenin alleged to the FT, moreover, that Ukraine had deployed S-300 air defence systems near the border.
> 
> Cue claims by Russian and Transnistrian officials that Ukraine and Moldova are imposing an economic blockade; civic leaders in Transnistria last week appealed to Russian president Vladimir Putin to protect them “in case of emergency”. On Monday, Dmitry Rogozin, Russia’s hard-line deputy premier, assured Transnistria’s leadership that “Russia will always be there” to ensure regional security ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Heating up around Marinka/Maryinka (see attached maps for location) - this from the OSCE observer mission:


> *Summary*
> 
> Fighting erupted around the government-controlled town of Marinka (23km west-south-west of Donetsk city centre) in the morning of 3 June. The SMM observed the movement of a large amount of heavy weapons in “Donetsk People’s Republic” (“DPR”)-controlled areas – generally in a westerly direction towards the contact line – close to Marinka, preceding and during the fighting. Calm was restored by the early evening.
> 
> *Detail*
> 
> Between 22:30hrs on 2 June and 05:30hrs on 3 June, the SMM – positioned in the “Donetsk People’s Republic” (“DPR”)-controlled Tekstilshchik area of Donetsk city (14km east-north-east of Marinka) – made a number of observations. It observed, inter alia, eight tracked armoured vehicles moving west, four of which were main battle tanks (MBT) at 22:30hrs; four MBTs at 23:03hrs; a military-type truck moving west, towing a 122mm artillery piece at 23:45hrs; two T-64 MBTs moving west at 04:30hrs; and a column of one infantry fighting vehicle (BMP-2), three military trucks (one carrying an ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft gun), and two T-72 MBTs, moving west, at 04:50hrs. In addition, the SMM – at the same location – heard approximately 100 outgoing artillery rounds fired from a location 1-5km north-north-west of its position between 04:30 and 04:40hrs; an outgoing salvo of BM-21 multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) Grad rockets fired from a location 1-5km west of its position at 04:55hrs; and, 100 outgoing artillery rounds fired from a location 5km north-north-west of its position.
> 
> Between 04:30 and 05:00hrs, the SMM – positioned in Donetsk city-centre – heard several salvos of outgoing MLRS rockets and approximately 100 incoming heavy-artillery rounds.
> 
> Between 07:00 and 08:00hrs, the SMM – mobile in an area 6-9km east of Marinka – observed seven T-64 MBTs facing west. In addition, it heard, on two separate occasions, more than five salvos of outgoing MLRS (BM-21) rockets and heavy-mortar rounds; and 12 outgoing MLRS Grad rockets and mortars.
> 
> At approximately 06:00hrs, an SMM unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) observed intense shelling targeting an intersection of the H15 highway 3.5km south-west of Marinka. The UAV spotted four 2S3 Akatsiya 152mm self-propelled howitzers 9km south-west of the town at 15:30hrs.
> 
> The SMM made several attempts between 10:45 and 12:11hrs to contact high-ranking “DPR” personnel – including the “DPR” “prime minister”, “parliamentary speaker”, “minister of defence” and “chief of the general staff” – in order to facilitate a cessation to the fighting around Marinka. Either they were unavailable or did not wish to speak to the SMM.
> 
> At 15:00hrs the SMM received a letter from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, saying Ukrainian Armed Forces heavy weapons would be placed on the contact line in order to deal with the “real threat” posed by the fighting in Marinka, which they said had started at 06:00hrs that morning. Ukrainian officials later publicly acknowledged that the weapons had been used, saying their use was necessary in thwarting a “DPR” attack.
> 
> The Representative of the Russian Federation Armed Forces to the Joint Centre for Control and Co-ordination told the SMM at 15:00hrs that a ceasefire around Marinka would take effect at 17:00hrs. He told the SMM at 21:00hrs that the situation around Marinka was currently calm. At around 19:00hrs a representative of the Anti-Terrorist Operation command in Kramatorsk and the “DPR” “ministry of defence” confirmed to the SMM that Marinka was under government control.
> 
> The SMM will follow up on reports of civilian and military casualties in Marinka.


Loads of coverage from Ukrainian and pro-separatist forces on this - more via Google News here.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Interesting development ....


> The leaders of the Donetsk and Luhansk Peoples’ Republics militant organizations are ready to recognize the special status territory of the Donbas as "an integral part of Ukraine” in proposed amendments to the Ukrainian Constitution, news agency RBK-Ukraine has reported, with reference to militant-controlled media that published the text of amendments ....


You can read the original RBK-Ukraine report in Russian here.


----------



## MilEME09

Could this mean they are upset with their russian overlords and trying a new option?


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> Could this mean they are upset with their russian overlords and trying a new option?


It could be the other way around (masters wanting tenants off their backs) - this from an interview Putin gave to an Italian paper earlier this month:


> .... the leaders of the self-proclaimed republics have publicly stated that under certain conditions – meaning the implementation of the Minsk Agreements – they are ready to consider themselves part of the Ukrainian state. This is a fundamental issue. I think this position should be viewed as a sound precondition for the start of substantial negotiations ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Meanwhile, from Russian government-owned media, on the OTHER side of Ukraine ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> More from the _Financial Times_:


A bit more on whazzup on Ukraine's western border from TASS:


> Mechanized infantry units of the Russian military group in Transdniestria will practise elimination of a hypothetical enemy’s manpower and materiel with grenade launchers and machine-guns, the Western Military District’s spokesman, Colonel Oleg Kochetkov, has told the media.
> 
> "The troops will perform training tasks to eliminate light armored vehicles, fire emplacements and manpower of a hypothetical enemy with AGS-17 grenade launchers Plamya and heavy machineguns Utyos.
> 
> Kochetkov said both weapons were very effective against frontline and low-flying attack aircraft. The troops will practise use of these weapons to repel an attack by a Sukhoi-25 fighter-bomber and a Mi-24 helicopter gunship.
> 
> Also, there will be reconnaissance and tactical camouflage technique training sessions ....


And on the Ukrainian side of that border, here's what the former President of Georgia, rebranded as the newest Governor of Odessa Oblast, is up to, again via TASS ....


> Ukraine’s Odessa region Mikhail Saakashvili said on Tuesday he plans to reinforce Ukraine’s border with the unrecognized republic of Transdniestria.
> 
> "We have two major tasks - to reinforce the border and curb corruption. Drug and weapons trafficking across this border mean nothing good," he told a news conference in Odessa.
> 
> He pledged Ukraine would take efforts to "restore lawfulness along the line of contact." "We have a presidential programme that provides financing for border reinforcement measures," he said. "It is quite realistic to fulfil it after we curb corruption in all power bodies. No barbed wire will help if a customs or border office overlooks contraband. Everything is pointless in this case."
> 
> Engineering works aiming to block movement of military hardware and contraband started at the Transdniestrian section of the Ukrainian-Moldovan border ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Digging in around UKR's major port city in the south ....


> Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has said that the fortifications on the demarcation line in Donbas should be built by mid-July.
> 
> "All the fortifications should be built by mid-July," the president told reporters after the inspection of platoon strongpoint outside Mariupol on Thursday.
> 
> The third defense facility on the line has been completed on schedule and the construction works are going according to schedule, he added.


More here and here - latest UKR government map also attached for bigger picture.


----------



## Kirkhill

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> ....an interview Putin gave to an Italian paper earlier this month:



From that interview, in places the tone suggested to me that Putin has lost some of his fire.  The "no regrets" line resonated.

The old saw that it is better to be thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt may have a parallel here.

Putin was anxious/desperate to have Russia accepted as the giant he remembered from his youth.  He tried some rough, realpolitik diplomacy early in his career looking for "friends" in the West among the legitimate governments.  He didn't get the freedom of movement he was looking for.

I suggest that prompted him to push harder and start brandishing his military, "opening his mouth".  

I don't think that has had the effect he was looking for either.  Oil prices are down.  The ruble is down.  Access to other governments are down.  He has a vocal opposition at home.  He has had to retask his Spetsnaz to line duties because he can't create a "professional" military.  His old weapons systems are failing. His new weapons systems are not up to the task.  And he has to keep looking over his shoulder at the Oligarchs that sponsored his rise.....

I think it is arguable that "he has removed all doubt" and that he recognizes it.

He probably sees the real reports on the exercises and excursions and those are likely to be less flattering than the news that filters out.  

That is, unless he is lying to himself or prefers that others lie to him - just like the old Soviets.


----------



## MilEME09

I bet it's a case that Putin is believing his own propaganda, with the Kremlins control of the media Russia it self is dancing in his hand. Worst case scenario he gambles something bigger to trying and get out of this.


----------



## MilEME09

Looks like fighting is really kicking into high gear for the summer


----------



## The Bread Guy

It appears some in the east aren't keen on being human shields of sorts ....


> Several hundred Ukrainians in the country's war-torn east demanded Monday that pro-Russian insurgents remove scores of rocket launchers from crowded city neighbourhoods and stop provoking return government fire on their homes.
> 
> The small but unusual demonstration outside the offices of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic suggested that an undercurrent of resentment with the new authorities was running through the streets of eastern Ukraine's main rebel-held town.
> 
> Districts around Donetsk and Lugansk -- capital of a neighbouring separatist region -- have witnessed the return of intense fighting that has claimed more than 50 lives this month ....


----------



## MilEME09

When you loose the faith of the people, your bound to fail, I recently watched a VICE news report that tracked down several russian soldiers. During the investigation they talked with civilians in eatern ukraine who said russian soldiers were well behaved while DPR/LPR troops would steal, pillage and so on from the local population. People don't like them, and it seems more and more want the Ukrainian government to retake the area sooner then later.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Saw that as well. That clip should be required viewing for the young soldiers as how they can compromise security.


----------



## YZT580

WHY IS IT THAT THE REBELS ARE ABLE TO FIELD NEW TANKS, ARTILLERY, AND THE LIKE ALL CLEARLY MARKED "MADE IN THE USSR" BUT NO ONE IS ABLE TO SEND SO MUCH AS A BOX OF GRENADES TO THE LEGITIMATE GOVERNMENT OF THE COUNTRY WITHOUT SOMEONE SCREAMING "ESCALATION"?


----------



## Edward Campbell

YZT580 said:
			
		

> WHY IS IT THAT THE REBELS ARE ABLE TO FIELD NEW TANKS, ARTILLERY, AND THE LIKE ALL CLEARLY MARKED "MADE IN THE USSR" BUT NO ONE IS ABLE TO SEND SO MUCH AS A BOX OF GRENADES TO THE LEGITIMATE GOVERNMENT OF THE COUNTRY WITHOUT SOMEONE SCREAMING "ESCALATION"?




Because a certain segment of the _our_ population, well represented in the media, _"knows"_ that the US led West is a hotbed of greedy, evil capitalists who despoil the planet for profit, while Russia is, essentially (and despite Putin (who is, these good folks _believe_, a temporary aberration)) a peace loving state, and a victim, that is just trying to recover a bit of what was stolen from it by the rapacious Americans. 


The "party line" didn't disappear with the demise of the USSR and Leninist-Stalinist Communism; it's still being propagated and the same gullible people* in the West are still _believing_ it.

_____
* Many of whom were pioneering journalists like John Reed (1887-1920) and Lincoln Steffans (1866-1936) who served as role models for some of the people who became journalism professors in the 1960s


Edited for clarity


----------



## vonGarvin

YZT580 said:
			
		

> WHY IS IT THAT THE REBELS ARE ABLE TO FIELD NEW TANKS, ARTILLERY, AND THE LIKE ALL CLEARLY MARKED "MADE IN THE USSR" BUT NO ONE IS ABLE TO SEND SO MUCH AS A BOX OF GRENADES TO *THE LEGITIMATE GOVERNMENT* OF THE COUNTRY WITHOUT SOMEONE SCREAMING "ESCALATION"?


That part I have highlighted is the part they have contention with.  If you recall, there was a coup d'etat in Kiev about 18 months ago, and the legitimate government (of the day) was forced out over a trade deal.  After the new legitimate government (of the day) took over, those in the east and the south (Donbas and Crimea) felt afraid; VERY afraid, because the former government is one they supported, and supported them, and allowed them to live their lives as Ukrainian citizens, even though they were largely Russian.  

Of course those in the east and the south think that Big Money engineered the coup d'etat, and that the trail of blood leads to the EU and "others" in the West.  So, any further help from the west is seen only as a continuation of that coup.  

Anyway, the Russian is a different person from you and I.  He thinks in different terms, and in fact is very skeptical about *anything* that comes from the West.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Technoviking said:
			
		

> .... the Russian is a different person from you and I.  He thinks in different terms, and in fact is very skeptical about *anything* that comes form the West.


 :nod:


----------



## Edward Campbell

Technoviking said:
			
		

> ... the Russian is a different person from you and I.  He thinks in different terms, and in fact is very skeptical about *anything* that comes form the West.




I agree, also ... The Russians are "neither fish nor fowl nor good red herring." They are not, really, _historic_ Slavs, even though they use their Slavic _nature_ as an excuse to be "big brother" to all the other Slavs ...

         
	

	
	
		
		

		
			




         The historic Slav homeland in the 6th and 7th centuries

     ... nor are they Asians, but, starting in the 10th century waves of Mongol and Turkik invaders dominated Russia and much of Eastern Europe and l;eft an indelible imprint on both Russia and China. (The Chinese see the ethnic Russians
          as the archetypical _barbarians_ and the Russians hate a fear the Chinese for the same reason.)


----------



## meni0n

Technoviking said:
			
		

> That part I have highlighted is the part they have contention with.  If you recall, there was a coup d'etat in Kiev about 18 months ago, and the legitimate government (of the day) was forced out over a trade deal.  After the new legitimate government (of the day) took over, those in the east and the south (Donbas and Crimea) felt afraid; VERY afraid, because the former government is one they supported, and supported them, and allowed them to live their lives as Ukrainian citizens, even though they were largely Russian.
> 
> Of course those in the east and the south think that Big Money engineered the coup d'etat, and that the trail of blood leads to the EU and "others" in the West.  So, any further help from the west is seen only as a continuation of that coup.
> 
> Anyway, the Russian is a different person from you and I.  He thinks in different terms, and in fact is very skeptical about *anything* that comes form the West.




So what part of the current government do you consider illegitimate? Elections were held and had international monitors.


----------



## Edward Campbell

_I think_ that's it's fair to contend that the process of _ejecting_ the previous, equally legitimate government and making way for new elections was problematical for some (many?) Ukrainians.


----------



## vonGarvin

meni0n said:
			
		

> So what part of the current government do you consider illegitimate? Elections were held and had international monitors.



After reading and re-reading my post, I fail to find any suggestion that I find the current government to be illegitimate.  Nor did I suggest that the previous government was illegitimate.  If you read my quote again, you'll find that I refer to them both as the legitimate government (of the day).  




			
				Technoviking said:
			
		

> That part I have highlighted is the part they have contention with.  If you recall, there was a coup d'etat in Kiev about 18 months ago, and the legitimate government (of the day) was forced out over a trade deal.  After the new legitimate government (of the day) took over, those in the east and the south (Donbas and Crimea) felt afraid; VERY afraid, because the former government is one they supported, and supported them, and allowed them to live their lives as Ukrainian citizens, even though they were largely Russian.
> 
> Of course those in the east and the south think that Big Money engineered the coup d'etat, and that the trail of blood leads to the EU and "others" in the West.  So, any further help from the west is seen only as a continuation of that coup.
> 
> Anyway, the Russian is a different person from you and I.  He thinks in different terms, and in fact is very skeptical about *anything* that comes from the West.


----------



## The Bread Guy

HERE's the answer!


> "The Littlest Hobo," "Anne of Green Gables," maybe even "Flashpoint" could find a new lease on life in Ukraine as the country's broadcasting council scrambles to fill TV screens with something other than Russian programming, says a senior Ukrainian official.
> 
> To counter — both real and perceived — propaganda throughout the war-torn country, President Petro Poroshenko's government pulled the plug on the Russian signals, leaving a dramatic hole in entertainment and information schedules, said Iurii Artemenko.
> 
> The country needs both hardware to improve its own radio and television signals and replacement programming.
> 
> "We try to find something," Artemenko said in an interview with The Canadian Press. He recently returned from a trip to South Korea, where he was pleading for content.
> 
> "We need high-quality content, shows, dramas, movies, cultural programs," he said at the same time as expressing his fondness for Quebec cinema.
> 
> Artemenko says Canadian programs — dramas and comedies — would welcome and an important uplift for an anxious population.
> 
> In terms of equipment, Ukraine "doesn't need money, but tuners and transmitters" to increase coverage in border regions ....


----------



## vonGarvin

So...we *are* sending lethal weapons


----------



## Kirkhill

Technoviking said:
			
		

> So...we *are* sending lethal weapons



Canadian Psyops - Electronic Trypanosomiasis.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Technoviking said:
			
		

> So...we *are* sending lethal weapons


Or, in some cases, cruel and unusual punishment  ;D


----------



## a_majoor

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Or, in some cases, cruel and unusual punishment  ;D



Maybe we can beam CBC television and radio programs at the Russians and Donbas rebels. Although we would probably be accused of war crimes for doing so, the programs will certainly sap their will to resist (and indeed their ability to carry out tasks requiring rational thought)   >


----------



## Colin Parkinson

We can beam all of our election ads over every frequency at them, until they just fall into a complete despair and lose all hope.


----------



## srayne

Ukraine is, understandably, in a panic over Russian aggressions in both the Crimea and the eastern portion of the country. Unfortunately, rather than focusing on the real threats this nation is facing from its neighbor, we continue to see evidence of Ukraine’s long-lasting leadership failures.

According to a recent statement from a senior Ukrainian defense official — Oleksandr Turchynov, the head of Ukraine’s National Security Council, “Ukraine is open to considering proposals to place a ballistic missile-defense system on its territory to ward off the risk of attacks from Russia.”


----------



## The Bread Guy

srayne said:
			
		

> Ukraine is, understandably, in a panic over Russian aggressions in both the Crimea and the eastern portion of the country. Unfortunately, rather than focusing on the real threats this nation is facing from its neighbor, we continue to see evidence of Ukraine’s long-lasting leadership failures ....



1)  Welcome, and as someone who writes about these things, it'll be interesting to hear some of what you have to say.
2)  (Wearing my moderator hat) We hope you'll be sharing more than _just_ links to your pieces in the discussion.

According to the headline of the article you linked, _"Ukraine Needs to Focus on *Increasing Defense Spending*, Not Irrelevant Distractions"_.  Some would say more spending without reforming how it's spent is just pouring more money into a leaky bucket without fixing the holes.


----------



## Fishbone Jones

srayne said:
			
		

> Ukraine is, understandably, in a panic over Russian aggressions in both the Crimea and the eastern portion of the country. Unfortunately, rather than focusing on the real threats this nation is facing from its neighbor, we continue to see evidence of Ukraine’s long-lasting leadership failures.
> 
> According to a recent statement from a senior Ukrainian defense official — Oleksandr Turchynov, the head of Ukraine’s National Security Council, “Ukraine is open to considering proposals to place a ballistic missile-defense system on its territory to ward off the risk of attacks from Russia.”


  

And with my Mod hat on, I hope your not just posting links to your own blog to increase your hits. That would be too much like advertising and against site policy without the Owners permission.

Until we determine which way you're going, or you indicate such, your link has been removed.

---Staff---


----------



## The Bread Guy

All well and good while the summer lasts, but the clock'll be REALLY ticking once it gets cool again ....


> GAS giant Gazprom says it is halting all natural gas supplies to Ukraine after pricing talks broke down in the latest row between Russia and its war-torn former Soviet neighbour.
> 
> "UKRAINE did not pay for July gas supplies," Gazprom chief Alexei Miller said in a statement on Wednesday.
> "Gazprom has halted gas supplies to Ukraine from 10am (0700 GMT) July 1."
> 
> Mr Miller stressed that no more gas would be sent to the pro-Western country without prepayment no matter what the future price will be, adding that the gas pricing formula for Ukraine would not be changed until late 2019.
> 
> The Kremlin declined to comment.
> 
> The announcement came after Ukraine declared on Tuesday it was suspending all purchases of natural gas from Russia after EU-mediated negotiations in Vienna aimed at keeping supplies running broke down.
> 
> Ukraine's state energy company Naftogaz indicated gas supplies to Europe would not be affected, saying it would continue transporting Russian gas supplies westward to its other European clients.
> 
> Ukrainian Energy Minister Volodymyr Demchyshyn said on Wednesday Kiev was ready to continue talks.
> 
> A senior European official said gas supplies to Ukraine and the EU would not be endangered ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Just what Ukraine needs - armed militias disagreeing with the government ....


> Members of Ukrainian volunteer battalions and activists of various nationalistic organizations, including Right Sector, which is banned in Russia, on Friday evening were rallying to demand that the fighting in Donbas be resumed in front of the Dynamo stadium in Kyiv, where first clashes between opposition activists and security forces took place during the 2014 events in the Ukrainian capital.
> 
> About 1,000 people, among them many wearing military uniforms, gathered near a monument to Valeriy Lobanovsky on Friday evening, an Interfax-Ukraine correspondent reported from the scene.
> 
> The demonstrators were demanding that the authorities stop prosecuting and discrediting members of volunteer battalions and the entire volunteer movement and resuming the fighting in eastern Ukraine to liberate "the occupied territories." ....


More here.


----------



## vonGarvin

They want the fighting in Donbass to resume in front the of Dynamo stadium?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Technoviking said:
			
		

> They want the fighting in Donbass to resume in front the of Dynamo stadium?


Gotta start SOMEWHERE, I guess ....


----------



## vonGarvin

It's just their grammar in that sentence is a bit...confusing ;D


----------



## Oldgateboatdriver

At least, their spelling is fine: They didn't say they wanted the fighting in Dumb Ass to resume  ;D.


----------



## Robert0288

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Just what Ukraine needs - armed militias disagreeing with the government ....More here.



Could they have possibly played into Russian Soviet propaganda any further?  I can see absolutely no way that this would help anyone in Ukraine.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Robert0288 said:
			
		

> Could they have possibly played into Russian Soviet propaganda any further?  I can see absolutely no way that this would help anyone in Ukraine.


Unfortunately, this is part of the base Ukrainian leaders have to "play" to, 1)  because the influence is far from zero, and 2)  self-raised militias are pulling a LOT of the load re:  fighting the separatists in some spots - a bit of a two-edged sword, these guys.


----------



## Kirkhill

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Unfortunately, this is part of the base Ukrainian leaders have to "play" to, 1)  because the influence is far from zero, and 2)  self-raised militias are pulling a LOT of the load re:  fighting the separatists in some spots - a bit of a two-edged sword, these guys.



Partisan warfare is not unknown in that part of the world.  Sometimes it escalates to include states.  Other times it dies down to the level of brigandage and more of a constabulary issue.  (As on Corsica and Sicily, and Northern Ireland).


----------



## FJAG

It would be nice if the pro-Ukrainian militias took a few seconds to cut the German flag off their surplus Bundeswehr jackets. Just what Putin needs to show the folks back home.

 :cheers:


----------



## George Wallace

FJAG said:
			
		

> It would be nice if the pro-Ukrainian militias took a few seconds to cut the German flag off their surplus Bundeswehr jackets. Just what Putin needs to show the folks back home.
> 
> :cheers:



If we go back a few months, we also saw some Canadian surplus parkas being worn.


----------



## cupper

Watching NBC's Meet The Press this weekend, Chuck Todd interviewed author and journalist Daniel Silva. Silva has some interesting views on Putin, what is happening in Ukraine / Crimea region.

Silva believes that the next move that Putin will make will be in the Baltic states.

http://player.theplatform.com/p/2E2eJC/nbcNewsOffsite?guid=a_mtp_presspassfull_150705


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Apparently we are destroying the Eryx missiles and launchers rather than giving it to them. According to the Ministers they are not trained to use them. I guess those rebels in Syria took US training in the use of TOWs? I suspect giving jackets and such is fine , but real weapons is to much of a hot potato and any excuse will do.


----------



## The Bread Guy

One headline about a touchy shootout/standoff in the far west of Ukraine seems to hit a number of the "WTF's the problem?" buttons ....

*"Right Sector on Mukacheve: Local gangsters, police revenge for blocked smuggling"*

More on the fracas via Google News here.


----------



## Kirkhill

http://khpg.org/index.php?id=1436617897



> *Several dozen Russian contract soldiers could face up to 10 year prison sentences for having left a military unit in the Rostov oblast, fearing that they would be sent to fight in Ukraine*.  Soldiers allege that were offered up to 8 thousand roubles a day for ‘volunteering’ to go to Ukraine, and effectively held there until they agreed.
> 
> Gazeta.ru has spoken with soldiers facing trial for going absent without leave or deserting, their mothers, as well as a lawyer representing 5 men.  On a video which the newspaper was shown, a military official rubbishes all claims that men are being sent to Ukraine.  The journalists’ attempts to speak directly to the man on the video or representatives of the Russian Defence Ministry were all unsuccessful.
> 
> *All the soldiers are from the Maikop reconnaissance brigade and on contract service. 23-year-old Anatoly Kudrin has already received a 6 month term of imprisonment for going absent without leave, and two others are facing similar charges.  Their lawyers say that the young men left the Kadamovsky unit in the Rostov oblast (which borders Donbas) as they believed they would be sent to Ukraine.*
> 
> The men are now facing charges under Article 337 of the criminal code (going absent without leave) which carries a sentence of up to 5 years imprisonment and Article 338 (desertion) – up to 10 years.
> 
> *All the men complain of appalling conditions, *but are adamant that they left because they were under heavy pressure to go to Ukraine and were not prepared to take part in the fighting there – for any amount of money.
> 
> *27-year-old Pavel Tynchenko, who had previously served for 7 years in the Northern Fleet, is in custody, charged with going absent without leave.   His mother explains after he had been sent on training in conditions so bad that he tried to resign.  This was ignored and he and several others were simply put on trucks and taken to the Rostov oblast where he was officially on military training from Oct 15 to Nov 14.*
> 
> Gazeta.ru quotes the statement Tynchenko issued to the judge of the Maikop military court in which he informs the court that the ruling “has not included my testimony regarding “disobeying an order”.  I did not carry out a criminal order since I did not wish to go against the oath which I took and did not want to take part in military action on Ukrainian territory. I would ask that this is added to the court’s ruling”.
> 
> Tynchenko's statement
> 
> Tatyana Chernetskaya, the lawyer representing 5 contract soldiers says that according to her information dozens of criminal cases have been initiated.  This is borne out by the Maikop court’s statistics.  *62 soldiers have been convicted of going absent without leave since the beginning of 2015,* against 35 for the entire period from 2010 through 2014.
> 
> Chernetskaya reports that the circumstances were the same for all of the several dozen soldiers facing charges of desertion or going AWOL.  They all left the Rostov unit between the end of September, 2014 and the middle of November.  They complained both of the inhuman conditions and of the pressure on them to serve as ‘volunteers’ in the so-called ‘Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics’.
> 
> *The conditions certainly appear to have been intolerable with men forced to sleep on blankets on the ground (in October and early November), and with virtually no water available, even to drink.
> *
> It is not only Tynchenko, however, who stresses that fear of being sent to Ukraine was at least as strong a reason.
> 
> The men recount how they were pestered by recruiters in camouflage gear without insignia who tried to get them to fight in Donbas for money, with 8 thousand per day offered.  All agree that these recruiters were not from their unit, so were clearly there with permission from the military command.
> 
> None of them was enticed by the 8 thousand per day offered, Chernetskaya explains, and they made their way back to their unit in Maikop.  There they tried to hand in formal resignations but these were not even considered, and they are now facing serious charges.
> 
> They are, however, alive, unlike many other Russian soldiers sent to Ukraine to fight.  Gazeta.ru explains the considerable efforts they took to speak with Russian official sources.  They confronted the same difficulties reported by journalists trying to find out about the two Russian spetsnaz officers captured in Ukraine whom Russia is trying to claim were not active military servicemen.   All suggestions by the Kremlin and Defence Ministry that the two were ‘volunteers’ have been totally rejected by the men themselves.
> 
> Moscow has also tried to deny the deaths of Pskov paratroopers in Ukraine, as well as other soldiers.  Human rights activists and journalists like Lev Schlosberg and Ludmila Bogatenkova have faced attacks and hate campaigns, or actual criminal prosecution.
> 
> President Vladimir Putin has also come up with a new method.  In his decree from May 28 he classified information about Russian military losses during “special operations in peacetime”, thus potentially enabling prosecution and imprisonment for divulging details about the deaths of Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine.
> 
> The numbers of soldiers killed is becoming impossible to hide, and there are more and more reports from reputable journalists and human rights groups.  Soldiers have now also understood how Russia will abandon them to their fate in order to maintain a lie which no longer has power to convince anybody.



If true it suggests that even the better brigades are now reaching pretty deep to fill their ranks (sailors as soldiers, contracts instead of long service, high rates of pay, coercion).  It also seems that logistics are still not a Russian strong suit (limited water, no shelter, no sleeping bags).


----------



## McG

The living conditions are probably not a logistic problem but a deliberate tool of duress.


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> One headline about a touchy shootout/standoff in the far west of Ukraine seems to hit a number of the "WTF's the problem?" buttons ....
> 
> *"Right Sector on Mukacheve: Local gangsters, police revenge for blocked smuggling"*
> 
> More on the fracas via Google News here.


One of the _other_ militias offers to help as the Right Sector stokes the sympathy protest fires and makes various demands.

More via Twitter here and here.


----------



## vonGarvin

Russians historically "get" logistics.  They don't offer comfort as part of the logistical package, however.


----------



## Kirkhill

Technoviking said:
			
		

> Russians historically "get" logistics.  They don't offer comfort as part of the logistical package, however.



If I recall from our Cold War expectations after 72 hours of combat the remainders of our divisions expected to be withdrawn and reformed.  The expectation for the Russians were that they would be dead and replaced by another division. Russian soldiers, like bullets, were expendables - and wooden rounds at that.

Our logistics devote a lot of carrying capacity to maintaining the soldier.  The Americans, traditionally, even more so.  The Russians, I think we agree, not so much.

And MCG - I also agree with you.  I have no doubt that the conditions were part of the duress and coercion to encourage volunteers.  A mentality that could be seen as counter-productive and contributory to the Russians difficulty in getting volunteers at any price for any duration in any duty.

I may be a victim of my 1980s Figure 11 conditioning, but the only things that ever bothered me about the Russians were Mass, the unpredictable nature of their leadership and their possession of significant nuclear capabilities.  Two of those three are significantly degraded, both in quantity and quality.  Only the unpredictable leadership remains the same.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> http://khpg.org/index.php?id=1436617897
> 
> 
> 
> *Several dozen Russian contract soldiers could face up to 10 year prison sentences for having left a military unit in the Rostov oblast, fearing that they would be sent to fight in Ukraine ....*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> If true it suggests that even the better brigades are now reaching pretty deep to fill their ranks (sailors as soldiers, contracts instead of long service, high rates of pay, coercion).  It also seems that logistics are still not a Russian strong suit (limited water, no shelter, no sleeping bags).
Click to expand...

Kremlin Info-machine response:  whatchoo talkin' 'bout, Willis?


> .... "I have not seen, unfortunately, and have not read this publication," (Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry) Peskov said. "I am unaware of this and cannot tell you whether the president is aware of the issue, I just don’t know." "But this is a question that should rather be addressed to the Defense Ministry. After all, the army has its statute. We all served in the army and we know what it is all about," he said ....



Meanwhile ....


> It was one of those events that simply appeared and disappeared during the bloody, swift-moving events of Ukraine in the winter revolution of 2014.
> 
> Canada’s embassy in Kyiv was used as a haven for several days by anti-government protesters during the uprising that toppled the regime of former president Viktor Yanukovych.
> 
> The Harper government never fully acknowledged — during the upheaval or since — the depth and extent of the security breach, which has had far-reaching implications on how Canadians are perceived in the region.
> 
> The Canadian Press has spent months piecing together the events surrounding the extraordinary incident, which started on Feb. 18, 2014 and occurred at the height of the violent crackdown against pro-European protesters ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm ....


> Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) Secretary Oleksandr Turchynov said the Ukrainian administration is prepared to put martial law in place if the situation in eastern Ukraine escalates.
> 
> If military action intensifies, "we will have no alternative to putting in place martial law," he said in an interview with Interfax.
> 
> Turchynov said that the previous law in this sphere was adopted a long time ago, "when no one thought about the real military threat and when pacifism dominated in foreign policy." "For this reason, the old legislation in this sphere was not functional. The changes made to the law made it effective," he said.


It would be interesting trying to impose martial law when some of the private/political militias may be better armed than the military - you don't see the Azov Battalion fundraising like the UKR military does ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

What's a diaspora for, after all, right?  >


> Supporters of Ukraine’s Right Sector extremist group rallied in Ottawa Sunday amid the radicals’ ongoing standoff with police in western Ukraine.
> 
> The rally outside the Ukrainian embassy was organized by the Right Sector’s representative office in the Canadian capital, 112 Ukraine TV channel reported, citing the Facebook account of the  so-called Ukrainian Volunteer Corps.


Some photos from the Right Sector web page:


----------



## cupper

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> What's a diaspora for, after all, right?  >Some photos from the Right Sector web page:



I don't know. Some minor changes and you could say it was just about any Walmart in the US.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some of the fallout from the Right Sector/militia fracas in western Ukraine:  customs officials suspended (who was cutting whose grass re:  illicit cigarette sales was said to be the catalyst), with calls for even more "staffing realignment"), new district governor appointed, resignations from all sorts of district chairmen, a new secret service boss for the district, and a quick drop-in by the President.

"Purge" is such a harsh term ....  ;D


----------



## The Bread Guy

The latest:  rumours of (and denials of) a coup and/or disbandment of the "Donetsk Peoples Republic's" Ministry of Defence (all links in Russian).   This after a couple of assassination attempts against separatist leaders over the past few days.

op:


----------



## The Bread Guy

From the UKR MoD's Info-machine:


> Mr. Roman Vashchuk, Canadian Ambassador to Ukraine, presented a mobile military hospital for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
> 
> Mr. Ihor Dolgov, Deputy Minister of Defence of Ukraine for European Integration, Col. Andriy Verba, other military high officials of the Ukrainian MoD attended the event as well.
> 
> “The Ukrainian army urgently needs this mobile hospital provided by the Canadian Government. It meets the military medical requirements in the context of the reforms within the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” Mr. Dolgov remarked.
> 
> He stressed the Canadian contribution to fighting and victory of the Ukrainian people would help to save lives of many Ukrainian soldiers on the frontline.
> 
> Deputy Minister of Defence announced that in September the Canadian instructors would start to train the Ukrainian military.
> 
> According to Mr. Roman Vashchuk, the mobile hospital meets the Canadian up-to-date technologies and is fully compatible with the Ukrainian equipment.
> 
> “Hospital may be deployed during six hours and disassembled during four hours. It’s a high mobile hospital suitable for use in any conditions. I present this equipment and I know it will save hundreds, maybe, thousands of lives,” he underlined.
> 
> Ambassador underlined the Canadian Party praised the cooperation with the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence.


More from the UKR MoD on where it's headed, and some more info from UKR media.


----------



## The Bread Guy

George Wallace said:
			
		

> If we go back a few months, we also saw some Canadian surplus parkas being worn.


Like the attached info-machine photo of a Canadian official giving a little something to Ukrainian security forces?

As for the field hospital, this from Canada's foreign affairs info-machine ....


> The Honourable Rob Nicholson, P.C., Q.C., M.P. for Niagara Falls, Minister of Foreign Affairs, issued the following statement regarding the delivery of a mobile field hospital to Ukraine’s armed forces in Kyiv yesterday:
> 
> “Canada is proud to be at the forefront of international support to Ukraine. This mobile field hospital is a durable, transportable structure that comes complete with 20 beds, power generators and a functioning heating, cooling and ventilation system. The structure will be primarily used for surgeries and other procedures that require a sanitary and safe environment in areas affected by conflict.
> 
> “This mobile field hospital is part of the Government of Canada’s $11-million assistance package for non-lethal equipment announced in November 2014 and is one example of Canada’s continued support to Ukraine. It is our hope that this hospital will help save lives and provide much-needed relief in light of brutal violence.
> 
> “We continue to support Ukraine in its efforts to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russia’s continued military aggression and we commend the bravery of the Ukrainian people as they work toward a stable and unified country.”


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Like the attached info-machine photo of a Canadian official giving a little something to Ukrainian security forces?
> 
> As for the field hospital, this from Canada's foreign affairs info-machine ....



Wow the Ukrainian Army must be really trying to model themselves after us!  No soldier is wearing the same piece of equipment  ;D


----------



## The Bread Guy

RoyalDrew said:
			
		

> Wow the Ukrainian Army must be really trying to model themselves after us!  No soldier is wearing the same piece of equipment  ;D


Never too late to donate - at least $9.4 million raised so far  ;D


----------



## The Bread Guy

The latest nexus of "Ukraine's 'underground' economy" and "Russia's back in charge of Crimea" ....


> Russian border guards have detained the Ukrainian Smolny tanker in the Black Sea with over 1,160 tonnes of undocumented diesel fuel on its board, the Crimean border guard department of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) reported on Thursday.
> 
> The tanker was presumably the illegal buyer and seller of fuel at open sea, the FSB said.
> 
> "The inspection has showed the tanker has no captain. The crew consisting of 10 members lacked the entire service documentation and the automated identification system," the Crimean border guard department said.
> 
> "This means the ship was actually a ghost invisible for state controlling bodies," the border guards said.
> 
> The ship has been arrested and delivered to the port of Kerch ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Maps showing the occupied areas in Ukraine compared to various bits of Canada (source)


----------



## The Bread Guy

While private militias help keep the separatists at bay, the Ukrainian military looks at .... new uniforms/buttons & bows! 
Source


----------



## a_majoor

RoyalDrew said:
			
		

> Wow the Ukrainian Army must be really trying to model themselves after us!  No soldier is wearing the same piece of equipment  ;D



And now a focus on buttons and bows. We are obviously working for Vladimir Putin....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some tidbits ....

In case you hadn't heard, Russia vetoed the U.N. Security Council's resolution on setting up a tribunal to look into the shot-down MH-17 (with all the expected rhetorical responses from all sides, but Russia's still willing to help.
Ukraine's top cop:  time to set up a professional, all-volunteer military, Mr. President, given mobilization hasn't gone without its glitches.
As Russia grows its airborne forces, some may end up in Crimea (although the English-language Russian media story doesn't mention it, a Russian-language version of the story headlines the possible Crimean angle - and Ukrainian media sure picked up on THAT quick).


----------



## The Bread Guy

This from the PMO:


> Prime Minister Stephen Harper today announced the extension of Operation REASSURANCE, Canada’s contribution in support of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) Assurance Measures in Central and Eastern Europe, until June 2016. Canada’s continued support of NATO’s efforts to promote security and stability in Central and Eastern Europe demonstrates the Government's steadfast commitment to our Allies in the region.
> 
> It is also part of Canada’s broader response to the Putin regime’s aggression in Ukraine. Canada’s position on Ukraine has been clear: we recognize the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and will never recognize the illegal Russian occupation of Crimea or any region of that country.
> 
> Operation REASSURANCE refers to the military activities undertaken by the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) to support NATO Assurance Measures through the provision of military capabilities for training, exercises, demonstrations and assigned NATO tasks ....


----------



## Edward Campbell

Technoviking said:
			
		

> Russians historically "get" logistics.  They don't offer comfort as part of the logistical package, however.




Russia _might_ "get" logistics but, in the 15th through the 20th centuries, anyway, Russian _culture_ was too _weak_ to implement anything like a coherent logistical system: everything was stolen before it ever reached the combat forces. The Russians were, and _I guess_ still are, irredeemably corrupt and, in the military realm, logistics is the first thing that corrupt politicians, officials, officers and sergeants pillage ... and the Russians were (still are?) corrupt from top to bottom. It, corruption, is a major societal _weakness_ and if they cannot fix it they can never, ever become a great nation.


----------



## The Bread Guy

From the "we just want to help" department, a former UKR PM, still wanted by Interpol for _"Misappropriation, embezzlement or conversion of property by malversation, if committed in respect of an especially gross amount, or by an organized group"_, is creating a "Salvation Committee":


> Ukraine’s former prime minister Mykola Azarov has announced Monday establishing Ukraine Salvation Committee.
> 
> "We state that Committees of Salvation of Ukraine have been established and are working in Ukraine," Azarov told a press conference in Moscow. "We ask all citizens, political parties, labor union and social movements to unite and restore order in our home by joint efforts," he added.
> 
> Azarov said that he cannot name all members of the newly-established committee because "they live and work in Ukraine, and this is very dangerous." "Time will come when we will introduce them, first of all to the Ukrainian people. I can assure you that they are patriots who have no ties neither with current authorities nor with former authorities," Azarov stressed.
> 
> "We know who carried out the coup in Ukraine, who refused to hold dialogue with their own people. [Ukraine] Salvation Committee thinks that it is impossible to restore accord without changing the political leadership. Salvation Committee is unfortunately set up outside of Ukraine, but I am sure that we will come back. We address the Ukrainian people — we are ready to assume responsibility for restoring Ukraine’s development," he noted ....


One Russian government media outlet is calling the group (which the Kremlin says it has nothing to do with) a "government in exile".

More, in Russian, here.


----------



## The Bread Guy

I like to root for the underdog, but this far into the war, Ukrainian MoD officials are asking media and volunteers (via Ukrainian state radio) to let them know if there's any situations where front-line troops aren't getting ammo (article in Ukrainian, Google translation here - also attached in case links don't work)?  
I'm not surprised the story hasn't been translated into English yet .... :facepalm:


----------



## MilEME09

something tells me there is more to this story then whats in the article. Is this more a comms issue, or perhaps enemy EW is preventing troops from sending it up that they need ammo.


----------



## McG

OSCE observers claim they are being bullied and intimidated to leave & to stop watching Donetsk after four up-armoured vehicles are destroyed by arson.  

Ukraine conflict: OSCE cars torched in rebel Donetsk
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33841003


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> something tells me there is more to this story then whats in the article. Is this more a comms issue, or perhaps enemy EW is preventing troops from sending it up that they need ammo.


I really hope you're right, but if it was a comms problem, I don't think they'd be asking media or the public to let them know if the troops weren't getting ammo - the troops would find other ways to get word through.



			
				MCG said:
			
		

> OSCE observers claim they are being bullied and intimidated to leave & to stop watching Donetsk after four up-armoured vehicles are destroyed by arson.
> 
> Ukraine conflict: OSCE cars torched in rebel Donetsk
> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33841003


A bit more on that from the OSCE here:


> At approximately 02:25hrs on 9 August, the SMM observed that four OSCE armoured vehicles parked outside the residence of SMM monitors in Donetsk city were on fire. At 02:33hrs, the SMM heard four loud bursts, most probably as a result of tires of the armoured vehicles exploding. By 03:22hrs, the firefighters managed to extinguish the fire. The SMM noted that three of its vehicles were completely destroyed, one vehicle heavily damaged and three other vehicles partially damaged by the heat from the fire. SMM monitors were not injured and no damage to other OSCE vehicles was observed.
> 
> The SMM informed members of the “Donetsk People’s Republic” (“DPR”) who came to the scene and looked at the remains of the vehicles.


----------



## CougarKing

An update with a possible "smoking gun" on the MH17 downed airliner case; Buk missile fragments? 

Canadian Press/Associated Press



> *Dutch prosecutors say possible fragments of Buk missile system found at MH17 crash site*
> 
> By Mike Corder, The Associated Press | The Canadian Press – 2 hours 58 minutes ago
> 
> THE HAGUE, Netherlands - Dutch prosecutors said Tuesday they have found what they believe could be parts of a Buk missile system at the site in eastern Ukraine where Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was brought down last year.
> 
> The announcement represents the first time prosecutors have confirmed possible physical evidence of a missile bringing down the plane and killing all 298 people on board.
> 
> *Fred Westerbeke, the Dutch prosecutor leading the investigation, told The Associated Press that investigations have established that the parts "probably are parts of a missile system and probably a Buk missile system."*
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## McG

The EU notes that increasing violent aggression by separatist and Russian alliance is violating and threatening the Ukraine ceasefire.  

Ukraine surge in fighting violates ceasefire - EU
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33880342


----------



## MilEME09

A forced shake up of the DPR chain of command,



> Top militant battalion commander arrested by Ukraine's Security Service
> 
> The suspect nicknamed ‘Trump' enlisted into insurgent ranks in April 2014, Ukrainian officials claim
> 
> Ukraine's Security Service have detained a commander of a militant brigade from the self-styled Donetsk People's Republic.
> 
> Officials say the fighter nicknamed ‘Trump' joined insurgency ranks in April last year and was directly involved in fighting against government troops in areas including Slovyansk, Ilovaisk and Debaltseve.
> 
> Criminal proceedings have been opened against the Ukrainian native, on charges of being involved in what the law says is terrorist activity.



http://uatoday.tv/politics/top-militant-battalion-commander-arrested-by-ukraine-rsquo-s-security-service-471986.html


----------



## Kirkhill

http://www.newsweek.com/putins-war-swedish-sniper-ukraine-362883

A really interesting article about a Swedish volunteer in the Azov battalion.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> http://www.newsweek.com/putins-war-swedish-sniper-ukraine-362883
> 
> A really interesting article about a Swedish volunteer in the Azov battalion.


Interesting history on this dude ....

Meanwhile, it appears the pretty important port city of Mariupol's getting "gunners' attention", while Putin plans to drop by Crimea to chat up tourism and the U.N. says (PDF) as of end of July, _"at least 6,832 people (both military and civilians) have been killed and 17,087 were injured wounded in the conflict zone of eastern Ukraine."_

Latest UKR sitrep map attached.


----------



## Kirkhill

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Interesting history on this dude ....



According to the Newsweek article: that was then.  This is now.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> According to the Newsweek article: that was then.  This is now.



Man had totally changed his views.  He now says his old views were wrong.  An interesting character.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> According to the Newsweek article: that was then.  This is now.


All true, but a good case in point about how the various "info-machines" play it.


----------



## Kirkhill

RoyalDrew said:
			
		

> Man had totally changed his views.  He now says his old views were wrong.  An interesting character.



What appeals to me is that he doesn't attempt to dodge.  He admits his previous attitudes ..... and clearly states that he was wrong.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> What appeals to me is that he doesn't attempt to dodge.  He admits his previous attitudes ..... and clearly states that he was wrong.


And that's generally the best approach - fess up early, rather than let it bit you later.

Problem is, though, that those info-machines munching on the past and regurgitating it are aimed at folks who either can't or don't want to hear "the rest of the story".


----------



## Kirkhill

The Facts.

The Truth.

Not synonymous.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> The Facts.
> 
> The Truth.
> 
> Not synonymous.


With The History thrown in to make it a bit of a (sometimes) noxious stew.


----------



## McG

Operation Konserv continues.  Each side accuses the other of aggression suggestive of the prelude to offensive operations.

Shelling in east Ukraine kills nine as clashes escalate
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33962356


----------



## The Bread Guy

And here's why the country's top cop has suggested maybe it's time for a professional, all-vol UKR military - shared with the usual disclaimer ....


> Ukraine wound up the sixth part of its partial mobilization campaign on Aug. 17, and experts say it’s been the least successful one so far.
> 
> Starting on June 19, the two-month long mobilization drafted only 60 percent of the targeted number of men into the Ukrainian army, or 13,000 out of a planned 25,000.
> 
> The mobilization was not aimed at increasing the size of Ukraine’s army. Instead, paratroopers, tankmen and artillerymen who were called up for military service last year were to have been demobbed and replaced by fresh draftees.
> 
> Experts blamed a fall in patriotism in Ukraine for the failure of the sixth mobilization.
> 
> “By the end of the six wave (of mobilization), the government had managed to call up only 13,000 out of 25,000 people,” said Mykola Sungurovsky, Director of Military Programs at the Razumkova Center non-governmental think tank. “If the government doesn’t want to take charge of the war, there’s no use asking the people to do it instead.”
> 
> But the deputy head of the Ukrainian General Staff’s mobilization department, Olexander Pravdyvets, thinks the problem is not just one of a lack of patriotism.
> 
> “Draft evaders usually tend not to open the door to accept their call-up papers. They quit their jobs, or even flee the country,” he said at a briefing on Aug. 18.
> 
> Although Pravdyvets said the government has no plans to implement a seventh or an eighth conscription campaign this year, Deputy Minister of Defense Petro Mekhed said a further escalation of the conflict in the war zone might force the government to call up more people.
> 
> “Depending on the situation in the east of Ukraine, it is possible that there will be a seventh, eighth and ninth (conscription campaign),” Mekhed said at a briefing on Aug. 11.
> 
> One way out of Ukraine’s conscription problems might be for the country to have an entirely professional army working on contract, Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said on July 30 in comments on his Facebook page.
> 
> “It’s much more effective to create a smaller, but more professional army, well trained and equipped,” Avakov. “We can’t afford not to have professional army.”
> 
> Presidential Adviser Yury Biryukov told the Hromadske television channel in an interview on Aug. 4 that such an army was beyond Ukraine’s current means. “It will cost approximately Hr 100 billion per year. How would it be possible, given that the overall Ukrainian budget is Hr 40 billion?” Biryukov said.
> 
> Around 100,000 people were recruited during the three conscription campaigns in 2014. As a result, the Ukrainian Armed Services increased its overall strength from 130,000 to 232,000 soldiers.
> 
> The government had planned to increase this to 250,000 in 2015.


----------



## The Bread Guy

And the latest from the "getting harder to support the underdog" files ....


> The Defense Ministry of Ukraine has created a working group to check the actions of persons responsible for storage and allocation of fuel in a part of Ukrainian Armed Forces, particularly in the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) zone and neighboring areas, Ukrainian Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak has said.
> 
> "A working group has been created to check the facts of illegal actions by certain officials responsible for storage and usage of fuel and [the facts] of illegal fuel trade in areas neighboring with the ATO zone. The group consists of representatives of the Home Front Service, Armament Service and the Military Law Enforcement Service of Ukraine," Poltorak wrote on Facebook ....


 :facepalm:


----------



## MilEME09

it goes without saying that Ukraine's hidden war against corruption may be just as if not more important then the battle against Russian rebels.


----------



## a_majoor

Stratfor on Russia's "creeping offensive". While this is bad news for Ukraine, the endless drain on resources is also bad for Russia as oil prices remain depressed.

http://www.strategypage.com/on_point/20150818215011.aspx



> *Violent Patterns Emerge in Putin's War on Ukraine*
> by Austin Bay
> August 18, 2015
> 
> Russian dictator and shameless propagandist Vladimir Putin has accused Ukraine of escalating warfare in eastern Ukraine's Donbas region. "I hope there won't be full-scale direct clashes," Putin said while visiting the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula.
> 
> Putin delivered his accusation in what I call his "Vlad, Ace of Spies and KGB Colonel" mode. This patterned shtick is Cold War tough guy by design, theatrical photo-op Viagra for aging Communists. Along with his accusation, Reuters published a photo of Putin riding in a bathyscaphe (deep-sea ocean research submersible). As the bathyscaphe's bubble capsule submerges, Vlad (wearing a relaxed open-collar shirt, circa James Bond in Jamaica) gives the Black Sea depths an iron-man stare.
> 
> Putin's accusation repeats another pattern. Based on past events, accusing Ukraine of escalation is propaganda cover, a cynical signal that his soldiers and proxy forces have begun new offensive operations. Putin has escalated, with calculation, and shattered the Minsk agreement ceasefire of February 2015. A wily propagandist, Putin always works a thread of truth into his lies. Full-scale direct clashes can be avoided -- if Ukrainian defenders surrender or retreat.
> 
> Violating agreements is yet another pattern: By invading and annexing Crimea, Putin shredded the 1994 Budapest accord. That deal traded Ukraine's nukes for Russia's guarantee that it would not violate Ukraine's territory. The Clinton administration supported the accord.
> 
> Despite the Minsk agreement, fighting in eastern Ukraine has never stopped, nor has Putin's propaganda war. It's another pattern: Since spring 2014, combat in Ukraine has spiked and then lapsed. It takes time, but solid evidence collects that Russian soldiers or proxies have spiked the combat. This repeats a historical pattern: the creeping war of aggression. This is not a new form of warfare. In 1991, Serb dictator Slobodan Milosevic ran one in Croatia and Bosnia.
> 
> Many observers expected a late-summer offensive, likely a drive on the Ukrainian Sea of Azov port of Mariupol. This fits a grand pattern. In Europe, August is a good month for vacations and war. The days are long and dry. An attacker can seize territory through late September, and then General Winter will help slow counterattacks.
> 
> This week, a U.S. State Department spokesman accused Russia and its proxy separatists of launching new attacks "just as they escalated the conflict last August."
> 
> Mariupol lies between Russian-occupied areas and the Crimean peninsula. Seizing it is a logical operation, militarily and politically. Militarily, taking Mariupol robs Ukraine of a seaport and is a big step toward securing a land route to Crimea. A land corridor permits rapid tank and mobile infantry movement to and from Crimea.
> 
> It would be a major escalation, but Russian forces in Crimea could support the Mariupol attack by launching sorties north and east to pin Ukrainian units. With Russia and Crimea connected, Russian forces are poised for more grandiose ventures, such as isolating eastern Ukraine or attacking toward Kiev.
> 
> The grandiose options, however, incur grave risks. NATO soldiers have begun training Ukrainian soldiers. Putin's best bet is to continue to creep. But creeping wars take time. The oil price decline has damaged Russia's economy. A dollar bought 30 rubles in 2013; it now buys 65. Muscovite whisperers call Ukraine a quagmire.
> 
> Seizing Mariupol would give Putin a much-needed short-term domestic political boost. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Observation Mission reported it has evidence that Russian forces have used Grad rocket barrages in recent fighting. Though fighting began to intensify during the first week of August, a Radio Free Europe report suggests the Russian offensive began on August 13, when Ukrainian forces noted "the heaviest exchanges of tank and rocket fire" since the February ceasefire.
> 
> Now heavy fighting has erupted around "a strategic highway linking ... Mariupol with Donetsk."
> 
> Putin's Guns of August are blazing.


----------



## MilEME09

Once again the west will just watch an offer token support to ukraine, the biggest help for Ukraine has been in eastern europe. Poland and the Baltic states have been slowly increasing their support. Sanctions do seem to be biting, but I think we need to hit Russia hard economically in one push to really get them to back off or retreat. The other option is to start arming Ukraine with enough weapons to enable them to use their new training effectively. No use giving them counter battery radar if their gunners can't effectively fire back.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Thucydides said:
			
		

> Stratfor on Russia's "creeping offensive". While this is bad news for Ukraine, the endless drain on resources is also bad for Russia as oil prices remain depressed.
> 
> http://www.strategypage.com/on_point/20150818215011.aspx


There are also those saying the current "frozen war" suits Russia just fine - trickle in enough "humanitarian aid" to keep the fundraising UKR army and it's government off balance, keep supporting the separatists pushing for governance systems that won't let UKR be totally independent of Russia's "tickling", but not enough to have to take it on as a pretty big financial liability.  It apparently cost more than expected to hang on to/take care of Crimea, but Russia has revenue-generating assets (and bases) there.  I'm guessing it would cost a fair bit more to beef up the now-war-and-corruption-ravaged bits of eastern Ukraine calling themselves "republics".  

I guess there's a reason why it's been a while since Putin's used the term "Novorossia" ....

Meanwhile, good to hear Russia's veto on the MH17 shoot down helped prevent WW 3 (at least according to Russian government media, anyway).


----------



## The Bread Guy

Oopsie ....


> *Russia Inadvertently Posts Its Casualties In Ukraine: 2,000 Deaths, 3,200 Disabled*
> 
> Russian president Vladimir Putin has decreed that all Russian casualties “in peacetime” be a state secret. In addition to criminal charges arising from divulging state secrets, families risk losing pensions and lump-sum payments if they reveal that their sons were killed in Ukraine. Mothers of soldiers’ associations have been branded “foreign agents” for collecting data on Russian casualties. Dissident Boris Nemtsov was murdered shortly before completing his study of Russian casualties in Ukraine. Russian civil rights organizations, working against the fog of official resistance, could confirm only several hundred battlefield deaths.
> 
> Business Life (Delovaya Zhizn) reports on markets, finance, entrepreneurship, finance, and leisure, scarcely an outlet for sensational information. Its innocuously entitled “Increases in Pay for Military in 2015,” however, reveals what appear to be official figures on the number of Russian soldiers killed or made invalids “in eastern Ukraine.” Russian censors quickly removed the offending material but not before it had been webcached by the Ukrainian journal Novy Region (New Region).  Here is the “top secret” material the censors removed (my translation):
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> “Compensation of military personnel taking part in military actions in Ukraine in 2014-2015.” In addition, the Russian government, in a decision about the monetary compensation of military personnel taking part in military action in eastern Ukraine, approved compensation for families of military personnel who were killed taking part in military action in Ukraine of three million rubles (about $50,000). For those who have become invalids during military action, the compensation is one and a half million rubles (about $25,000). A payment of 1,800 rubles is envisioned for contract “fighters” for every day of their presence in the conflict zone. In all, as of February 1, 2015, monetary compensation had been paid to more than 2,000 families of fallen soldiers and to 3,200 military personnel suffering heavy wounds and recognized as invalids (my italics).” ....



Also, there's another date set for a "really, honest, this time" ceasefire:  1 September.  No pun intended, but watch, and shoot ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, in Russia, one man goes to jail for joining a hard-right pro-Ukrainian political group, while another man sets up a "Union of Donbas Volunteers" to help recruit for the anti-Ukrainian militias.


----------



## The Bread Guy

If you're into ORBATs, here's a summary of one for the Russian-Not-Russian-Anti-Ukrainian forces released by the Ukrainian Info-machine - the blogger in question (who says he's done ORBATs before) says it sorta-kinda looks like Serbian forces in Bosnia:


> .... this closely resembles the relationship during the 1992-95 Bosnian War, when the Bosnian Serb Army (VRS), while consisting largely of local rank-and-file troops, had most of its command, and nearly all of its financing and logistics, coming from neighboring Serbia and its military — which, in practice treated the VRS as merely as an extension of itself, as in fact it was ....


Some diagrams attached - will share more if the UKR Info-machine is willing to share with me you can check out the English deck from the UKR info-machine here (18 page PDF, via Dropbox.com).


----------



## The Bread Guy

Usual "initial report" caveats apply ....

*"Fierce clashes as Ukraine MPs back more autonomy for rebels"*


> At least 90 people mainly police were wounded in fierce clashes outside the Ukrainian parliament on Monday as lawmakers gave initial backing to deeply controversial reforms granting more autonomy to pro-Russian separatists.
> 
> A loud blast was heard outside the parliament building in Kiev and vast clouds of black smoke billowed into the air as demonstrators fired off what security forces said were live grenades shortly after MPs backed the first reading of the constitutional amendments.
> 
> It was the worst unrest in the capital since a sometimes bloody popular uprising ousted Kremlin-backed Viktor Yanukovych early last year, an event that set in train the separatist insurgency in Ukraine's eastern industrial heartland.
> 
> Interior Minister Arsen Avakov wrote on Facebook that protesters had detonated "several" explosive devices, and that there were about 90 people wounded, some in critical condition.
> 
> Riot police in helmets and armed with batons were seen clashing with the demonstrators.
> 
> Interior ministry advisor and top lawmaker Anton Gerashchenko said attackers had thrown a hand grenade at National Guard troops in what he called an "act of provocation" ....


Ukraine's top cop confirms via Twitter (in Ukrainian) that a National Guardsman was killed, reportedly by members of a hard-right wing anti-communist nationalist party - it's a party that's had at least one unit that's been fighting in eastern Ukraine for the government.

More from BBC here.


----------



## The Bread Guy

OSCE observers' version of events in Kiev today:


> On 31 August beginning at 09:00hrs, the SMM monitored protests in front of the national Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) building in Kyiv. Some 3,000 persons (male and female of all ages) carrying “Svoboda”, “Radical Party” and “Ukrop” flags were protesting against constitutional amendments that were being voted on inside the Parliament. The event was initially peaceful and orderly with no signs of unrest. During both the morning and afternoon, the building was heavily secured by a ring of riot police (approx. 1,000) and in addition national guards (approx. 1,000) with anti-riot equipment. Former Members of Parliament and current leaders of “Svoboda” and “Radical Party” were visible in the crowd of protesters.
> 
> At approximately 13:00hrs, the protestors grew agitated after they learned the constitutional amendments had been passed. They started to burn tires and wood in front of the main entrance and confronted the servicemen (physically with clubs and verbally) that were cordoning the building with full anti-riot gear. The servicemen held their lines against the surging protestors using their batons and shields. At least 50 front row protestors were involved in the clashes with the servicemen. Some were armed with chains and some including women with batons. In addition, the SMM observed around 20 male and female protestors covering their faces, some of them wearing balaclavas. Among all the protestors, around 150 protestors were dressed in camouflage, among them individuals with “Legion of Svoboda”, “Donbas”, “Pravyi Sektor”, “Tornado” and “Sich” patches.
> 
> The SMM observed tear gas canisters and smoke bombs being thrown by both servicemen and back row protestors causing small explosions. Behind the servicemen cordon, journalists were filming the protests. At 13:45hrs the SMM heard a very loud explosion assessed to have been a grenade explosion. After the explosion, the SMM observed wounded servicemen bleeding heavily and some protestors with less serious injuries. The SMM observed ambulances arriving at the scene behind the cordon, and at least eight servicemen being carried towards them. The scene was chaotic.
> 
> The press office of the main department of the Ministry of Interior in Kyiv Municipality, a national guard press officer and the hospital of the Ministry of Interior confirmed that approximately 120 servicemen were injured, four of them seriously, and that one had died. A representative of the Hospital of the Ministry of Defence stated to the SMM (by phone) at 18:30hrs that 24 National Guard soldiers and Police Officers plus one injured civilian are hospitalised.
> 
> At the time of writing the report, SMM was still at the scene and observed that there were only 50 protesters left.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Update from the weekend's Kiey riots:  One (maybe two?) more National Guardsmen dead, for a total of 3 killed.

Also, nothing like calling "dibs" on things in someone else's back yard ....


> *Russia can deny access to subsoil assets of Black Sea and Sea of Azov — decree*
> 
> According to new rules approved by the Russian government, holders of Ukrainian licenses could be denied the right to use subsoil assets of the Black and Azov seas in case of a threat to the defense and security of the Russian Federation. The corresponding decree was published Tuesday on the government website.
> 
> According to the website, "the decision is aimed at ensuring national defense and security in the Black and Azov seas."
> 
> The decree affects licenses issued by Ukraine before the reunification of Crimea with Russia.
> 
> The Government approved the rules for determining the order for applying to the Federal Agency for the Subsoil Use (Rosnedra) for holders of Ukrainian licenses for receiving the right to access to subsoil, as well as preparing the conclusions by the Russian Defense Ministry and the Federal Security Service on whether it poses a threat to the country’s security.


----------



## The Bread Guy

In a trick possibly learned by the Russian non-troops in the east ....


> *Sich battalion member detained after Rada clashes signed letter of resignation before rally – battalion commander*
> 
> Ihor Humeniuk, who is suspected of involvement in the deadly clashes outside the Ukrainian parliament on August 31, is a soldier in the Sich special operations battalion who tendered his resignation on August 29 after expressing discontent with his low wage and expressing a desire to serve in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Sich battalion commander Oleksandr Pysarenko has said.
> 
> "The suspect really is a member of the battalion, but on August 29 he tendered his resignation. In a private talk he said he wished to be transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine," he said at a briefing in Kyiv on Tuesday.
> 
> Deputy battalion commander responsible for human resources Tetiana Pecherska presented the letter (addressed to the chief of the Main Department of Interior Ministry in Kyiv) and read it aloud, quoting Humeniuk as saying he wanted to resign as "he was dissatisfied with the size of his wage." ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

.... UKR has approved a new military doctrine that points to Russia as the bad guy:


> *The Cabinet of Ministers in its draft military doctrine of Ukraine has defined Russia as an enemy and an aggressor state*, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk has said.
> 
> "The draft military doctrine for the first time in the history of Ukraine's independence has defined an opponent and aggressor, which is Russia," he said at a briefing in Odesa on Tuesday ....


A bit more from the Chair of the National Security & Defence Council (Google English below - original in Ukrainian here):


> September 2 a session of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, in which it was approved and proposed for approval by the President of Ukraine a new draft Military Doctrine of Ukraine.
> 
> Military Doctrine of Ukraine is a conceptual document that examines the nature and character of modern military conflicts defines the principles and ways to prevent their occurrence, preparation of state to the threat of military conflict, the use of military force to protect state sovereignty, territorial integrity and other vital national interests.
> 
> Military Doctrine of Ukraine based on the National Security Strategy of Ukraine and is the basic document of defense planning and the basis for the development of the concepts and state programs of reform and development of the Armed Forces and other military units, weapons and military equipment, defense-industrial complex.
> 
> The project has a public discussion involving both representatives of the government of Ukraine and experts of NGOs and foreign advisors accredited to the Office of NATO in Ukraine.
> 
> New Military Doctrine of Ukraine:
> 
> defines military opponent of the Russian Federation and Ukraine conditions of release temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine;
> 
> comes with high probability of large-scale use of military force against Ukraine as the main threat to Ukraine's national security in the military sphere;
> 
> confirming the rejection of the policy of non-alignment and restore the strategic course of Euro-Atlantic integration;
> 
> identifies signs of armed conflict in Ukraine, including those inspired by foreign countries;
> 
> taking into account the growing role of information and psychological operations;
> 
> emphasizes the need to improve the system of mobilization preparation and mobilization and substantial increase in the professional component of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other military formations;
> 
> formulates the preparations for defense of state needed for the restoration of state sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as the tasks of defense and security potential of Ukraine as a prerequisite repulse armed aggression and so on.
> 
> National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine supported the proposal of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and the Security Service of Ukraine and decided to extend the list of legal and physical entities of the Russian Federation and other countries in respect of which the sanctions. These persons engaged in terrorist activities, are involved in terrorist financing or other support of criminal activity, as well as in violation of international law by the Russian Federation supported the annexation of the territory of Ukraine.
> 
> This decision is due to the need to respond effectively to the continuing armed aggression of Russia against Ukraine, promoting and funding its terrorist activities that led to the violation of the territorial integrity of Ukraine, rights and freedoms of its citizens, temporary occupation of the territory of Ukraine, numerous casualties, causing real and potential threats to national interests, national security and sovereignty of Ukraine.
> 
> Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine jointly with the Security Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine and the Prosecutor General of Ukraine proposed to ensure the implementation and monitoring of the effectiveness of sanctions.


The President says it also helps prepare for UKR to meet NATO military standards by 2020 - meanwhile, operators are (still) standing by for your donations!


----------



## The Bread Guy

Subtle headline from the Russian Info-machine ....


> *'Slavic Brotherhood' Exercises Aimed at Crushing Potential Maidan Scenario*
> 
> Arriving at a base outside the southwestern Russian Black Sea coast city of Novorossiysk earlier this week, Belarusian and Serbian airborne forces have joined with their Russian counterparts for a training exercise dubbed 'Slavic Brotherhood'. The drills include exercises against a 'Maidan scenario' aimed at destabilizing national governments.
> 
> The drills, which began Wednesday and are set to continue until Saturday, feature nearly 700 personnel from the three countries, including a reinforced battalion from Russia's 7th Guards Airborne-Assault (Mountain) Division, two companies of Belarusian special forces troops, and a company-sized detachment from Serbia. The maneuvers include the use of about 20 Russian transport planes and helicopters, along with over 100 vehicles, including 22 Belarussian BTR-80 armored personnel carriers ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Found a new source of maps, still based on UKR info-machine data here - see the difference (I like the cleaner infographics version better) in attached.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Russia (not) in Georgia vs. Russia (not) in Ukraine - compare & contrast.

Meanwhile, both sides seem to agree ceasefire is holding - for now, anyway.


----------



## The Bread Guy

A longish, if clunkily translated, piece on how much pull Canadians have in Ukraine as a pretty big part of the diaspora (1.2 million out of a total of around 3 million Ukrainians living outside Ukraine or Russia).


----------



## Flanker

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> A longish, if clunkily translated, piece on how much pull Canadians have in Ukraine as a pretty big part of the diaspora (1.2 million out of a total of around 3 million Ukrainians living outside Ukraine or Russia).



I think now it is obvious why the current Canadian PM and related media are really biased in regard of the current conflict in Ukraine.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Flanker said:
			
		

> I think now it is obvious why the current Canadian PM and related media are really biased in regard of the current conflict in Ukraine.


If you've got better sources, feel free to share, and I'm sure folks here'll be happy to give you feedback  ;D

Meanwhile ....


> *Three Ukrainian paratroopers possibly abducted near occupied Crimea*
> 
> The press service of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported on Facebook that three soldiers from 79th separate airmobile brigade went missing in the early hours of September 5 near the administrative border with the Russian-occupied Crimea.
> 
> "In the morning of September 5, we became aware of the three soldiers from the 79th separate airmobile brigade gone missing - senior soldier Yurov, soldiers Orlenko and Mekshun. In the course of search operations, after serving duty at the observation post... they put on plain clothes and went to swim at the dam, according to their fellow soldiers. The dam is located in the area adjacent to the illegally occupied territory of Crimea," reads the statement
> 
> According to the General Staff, it was later found that on the same night, two vehicles (an URAL truck and UAZ) drove close to the said area from the illegally occupied territory of Crimea. Therefore, our troops might have been illegally captured by the Russian military ....


----------



## Flanker

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> If you've got better sources, feel free to share, and I'm sure folks here'll be happy to give you feedback  ;D
> 
> Meanwhile ....



I agree with you that there is a big Ukrainian community in Canada that is pretty well organized.
My point is not about sources but more about a biased position of Canadian officials in the Ukrainian conflict.
As an example, it is very disappointing to see how Canadian mainstream media degrade by reproducing all false and unverified info that the Ukrainian officials distribute.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Flanker said:
			
		

> My point is not about sources but more about a biased position of Canadian officials in the Ukrainian conflict.


I'm sorry - I guess I misunderstood what you wrote:


			
				Flanker said:
			
		

> I think now it is obvious why the current Canadian PM and *related media are really biased* in regard of the current conflict in Ukraine.





			
				Flanker said:
			
		

> As an example, it is very disappointing to see how Canadian mainstream media degrade by *reproducing all false and unverified info that the Ukrainian officials distribute*.


For example?


----------



## The Bread Guy

A few tidbits ....

Possible traders for Russia?  _"The border guards of the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation reported they had detained three soldiers of the 79th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Crimea suspected of illegally crossing Russia's state border ...."_
Stoltenberg to drop by:  _"NATO chief to make first visit to Ukraine amid strains with Moscow"_
UKR president thanks troops on Mil Int Day:  _"President congratulated military intelligence officers on professional holiday: Intelligence officers are an example of self-devotion, courage and heroism"_


----------



## a_majoor

The Georgian conflict could have ended up much worse for Georgia. Here we see that swift action and resolve can indeed cause the Russians to pause (even if you don't fire a shot at the Russians yourself:

http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2015/09/04/revealed-how-bush-saved-georgia-from-russia/



> *REVEALED: HOW GEORGE W. BUSH SAVED GEORGIA FROM RUSSIA*
> by SPYRIDON MITSOTAKIS4 Sep 201551
> 
> Earlier this month, coinciding with the seventh anniversary of Russia’s war on Georgia, Dmitri Shashkin, former Georgian defense minister, revealed the role of the Bush administration in stopping the Russian invaders from conquering the whole of the former Soviet Captive Nation.
> 
> Shashkin’s comments were published in Russian by Radio Liberty.
> 
> As reported by Paul Goble, who understands and translates Russian for his blog:
> 
> Shashkin published in Georgia a message he received from the White House on August 14, 2008: ‘President’s press conference is in 45 min. Gates will lead the operation. 6th fleet is on its way, Herculeses in the air. GEO will be safe’
> 
> In his memoir, Duty, Former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates refers to this incident only in passing, writing that the airlift of 1,800 Georgian Peacekeepers from Iraq to Georgia “began on August 10 and was completed the next day, and on August 13 I directed that the humanitarian assistance begin. There was no interference from the Russians.”
> 
> But this was not the whole story.
> 
> According to Shashkin, the reasons “Tbilisi was not taken by storm” were thanks to the “Georgian army, international support and specific steps by the US” which “stopped Russia.”
> 
> Shashkin reveals:
> 
> Many do not know that our peacekeeping brigade returned from Iraq to Tbilisi on American military planes which under the circumstances of war was direct military support by the US.
> 
> “Many do not know that Russia could not bomb the Tbilisi airport because American Hercules planes were on the tarmac,” Shishkin continues.”Many do not know that the flagship of the US Fifth Fleet which entered the Black Sea monitored on its radars the airspace in the Tbilisi-Moscow-Volgograd triangle.”
> 
> And “many do not know that the August 14 Hercules flights from Jordan were accompanied by (American) fighters. Many do not know that the statement of the commander of these fights that ‘any activity of Russian planes in the Georgian sky will be considered an attack on the United States of America,’ thus effectively closing the Georgian sky to Russian planes.”
> 
> By contrast, then-Senator Barack Obama’s weak response – calling for “a United Nations mediator to address this crisis,” to “convene other international forums to condemn this aggression,” and even calling for Georgia to “refrain from using force” in the provinces Russia had wrenched away from the already small country (South Ossetia and Abkhazia constitute about 1/3 of the Republic of Georgia) – prompted Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to remark:
> 
> After the Russian Army invaded the nation of Georgia, Senator Obama’s reaction was one of indecision and moral equivalence, the kind of response that would only encourage Russia’s Putin to invade Ukraine next.
> 
> Shishkin offers this analysis:
> 
> Putin is an ordinary KGB officer who knows that the USSR fell apart as a result among other things of the war in Afghanistan when zinc coffins came to Russian cities and villages. After the war in Georgia, they concealed their losses; now in Ukraine, they are burning the bodies … [so that] zinc coffins will not come to Russia [again].
> 
> On August 25, a Russian newspaper accidentally revealed that, according to Goble’s translation, “‘For the families of those who have died in the course of military actions in the east of Ukraine, monetary compensation has been set at three million rubles [40,000 US dollars] and for those who have become invalids during the military actions at 1.5 million rubles [20,000 US dollars].’ … As of February 1, 2015, Moscow had already paid monetary compensation ‘for more than 2000 families of soldiers who had been killed and for 3200 soldiers who were seriously wounded and recognized as invalids.'”


----------



## vonGarvin

Didn't the press vilify Mrs Palin over her comments?


----------



## MilEME09

Technoviking said:
			
		

> Didn't the press vilify Mrs Palin over her comments?



it's even sadder that she was right, now look were it has gotten us. Maybe if something like the US response to Georgia would of slowed or stopped Russian intervention. Ukraine can't even control it's own coast ATM because of Russia, which makes it much harder to deal with the rebels.


----------



## The Bread Guy

A few more tidbits ....

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight .... _"Russia promises to fine and return abducted Ukrainian paratroopers (detained near Crimean border)"_
Once the accusation's made, and spread, don't matter if it's true, right?  _"The Russian Investigation Committee has questions to Ukraine’s Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk who fought against the Russian troops in Chechnya in the mid-1990s, Alexander Bastrykin, the head of the Russian Investigation Committee, said in an interview with (newspaper "published by the new Russian state") Rossiyskaya Gazeta that will appear in the daily’s issue on September 9 and on the newspaper’s website***.  Bastrykin said that Arseniy Yatsenyuk was linked to crimes committed against Russian servicemen and Interior Ministry troops during the anti-terror operation in Chechnya in 1994-1995 along with Dmitry Korchinsky, Igor Mazur, Dmitry Yarosh, Valery Bobrovich, Oleg Tyagnibok and Andrey Tyagnibok as well as Vladimir Mamalyga ...."_ - he appears to have been in law school during that time, but no word about military service (or not)
First step toward nailing separatists for war crimes?  _"Ukraine accepts ICC (International Criminal Court) jurisdiction over alleged crimes committed since 20 February 2014"_ (ICC news release)
*** - Links to article in Russian


----------



## Kirkhill

Technoviking said:
			
		

> Didn't the press vilify Mrs Palin over her comments?



They're good at that sort of thing.

I see Obama was in Alaska to do a Bear Grylls ad for Gerber knives.  Too bad he didn't make it out to Little Diomede.  He could have seen Russia from there (Big Diomede).


----------



## The Bread Guy

A few more tidbits ....

Ukrainian and (some) separatists agree ceasefire seems to be holding
- maps attached.

(Other) separatists still want to be part of Russia- more
Russia's Foreign Minister:  Yeah, the separatists'll hold elections according to Ukrainian rules.  Some separatists (in Russian):  Whatchoo talkin' 'bout, Willis?
When it's Ukrainians doing it, it's "Nazis training kids with guns."  When it's separatists doing it, it's, _" “Ready for Labor and Defense” – created in the Soviet Union, a program of sports training in educational, professional, and sports organizations in the single fundamental and state-supported system of patriotic education of youth ...."_ (article in Russian)


----------



## The Bread Guy

This from Russian government media ....


> Employees of the Ukrainian security service on Saturday kidnapped and took to Ukrainian territory a Russian serviceman and his civilian brother, the press service of the Russian Defense Ministry stated.
> 
> "Today, on September 12, at about 6 a.m. [04:00 GMT] employees of the Ukrainian security service kidnapped Russian contract serviceman Viktor Barsukov from the village of Chertkovo in the Rostov Region, and took him to the territory of Ukraine," the ministry said in a statement.
> 
> According to the statement, the Russian serviceman’s civilian brother Nikolay Barsukov was also kidnapped from the Russian village of Chertkovo located on the border with Ukraine.
> 
> In the statement, the ministry urged the Ukrainian side to free the captured Russians and to stop such provocations ....


Maybe some traders for some Russia has?  Or stand by for the "uh, we got lost" gambit?


----------



## The Bread Guy

And the Ukrainian border guard info-machine version? Original statement in Ukrainian attached - translation via Google English ....


> *In Luhansk for illegal border crossing detained two Russian citizens, one of whom soldier from Voronezh region*
> 
> September 12, 2015
> 
> September 12 morning at the site of the department "Melovoye" employees Lugansk border detachment arrested two offenders who illegally crossed the state border of Ukraine. Fact violation derzhrubezhu guards recorded using night vision device.
> 
> The detainees were dressed in military uniforms and unmarked were citizens of the Russian Federation. When checking one of the men was carrying a passport inside of, and the other - military ID, under which it is the Armed Forces of the one of the military units of the Voronezh region.
> 
> Violators were taken to the border unit. Been informed of the SBU, the Interior Ministry and the WRC. Conducted filtration steps and set all circumstances. In addition to this fact was reported to the Russian side.





			
				milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Or stand by for the "uh, we got lost" gambit?


That didn't take long  ;D
_*" "They lost their way": Ukrainian border guards told the Defense Ministry, a soldier with their brother appeared in Ukraine"*_ (original in Russian) - Google English translation


----------



## The Bread Guy

Putin's measured words to media on Novorossia Donbass, via the Kremlin Info-machine (their English translation):


> .... _*Question: Mr President, yesterday on the esplanade people from Donbass were shouting to you asking to take in Donbass. The situation with the Minsk agreements is very complicated now. In your opinion, should you respond to these calls from the people of Donbass or should the Minsk agreements be extended?*_
> 
> Vladimir Putin: We are with Donbass in our hearts, but unfortunately, such matters are not resolved in the street. There are serious issues that have to do with the future of all of Russia and of the people living in Donbass.
> 
> As regards the implementation of the Minsk agreements, I believe there is no alternative to bringing calm and peace to this territory. The most important thing that should be done is establishing direct contact between the Kiev authorities and the authorities in Donetsk and Lugansk republics to implement the Minsk agreements.
> 
> I would like to remind you that they say clearly that amendments to the constitution and the law on local elections should all be adopted upon approval from Donbass. Such approval is not being sought, and this is the main problem.
> 
> Besides, there should be a law on amnesty in place. How can you have a dialogue with people who are under criminal prosecution? And the fourth is that the law on the special status of these territories, approved by the Rada earlier, should finally be made effective. These are all key elements of a political settlement.
> 
> Besides, this territory needs rehabilitation in socioeconomic terms. Thank God, coal, as I know, is now coming to Kiev from Donbass. This means that we can also start with extra supplies of coal.
> 
> I believe we will also resolve the issues dealing with gas and power supply, if necessary. Overall, we need to restore the entire range of relations.
> 
> _*Question: Should the term of the Minsk agreement be extended?*_
> 
> Vladimir Putin: Mr Kuchma said they probably cannot get everything done within the given timeframe. Generally speaking, we could consider some sort of extension, but it would be best to try to achieve everything we agreed on in Minsk – to try to get everything done in time.
> 
> It is good to know, of course (this is probably most important) that the shelling of Donbass by Ukrainian army and so-called Ukrainian volunteer battalions has ceased – there are no more strikes. I believe that this is the main achievement for today.


Q&A's from the Kremlin in Russian here.


----------



## cupper

Interesting article on Vice.com about a Mad Max style tank factory in Ukraine.

*A Tour of Ukraine's 'Mad Max' Tank Factory*

http://motherboard.vice.com/read/a-tour-of-ukraines-mad-max-tank-factory



> Roads in the east of Ukraine are littered with signs of war: roadblocks, craters, tanks, and camo-painted trucks. Occasionally a Mitsubishi L200 pickup painted in a striking black and grey geometric pattern will roll by. That’s Azov Battalion. Its trademark camo print covers its trucks and personnel carriers, and announces the battalion's arrival to battle on its custom-built tanks and armored vehicles.
> 
> Motherboard spoke to a few Azov soldiers and found out where these Mad Max tanks, as Azov soldiers referred to them, are built. We headed to the suburbs of Kyiv, where the Azov Engineering Group keeps its headquarters in an old tractor factory. On top of the front building sits a rusty model tractor and a mechanical wheel embellished with the Soviet hammer and sickle. A huge Azov flag is pinned underneath.
> 
> A guard and a surprisingly friendly German shepherd welcome us into the enormous industrial complex. The tractor factory was abandoned years before the war, and the land was earmarked for residential development but fell victim to bureaucratic red tape and squatters.
> 
> Azov member and factory foreman Bogdan Zvarych says the group moved into the compound earlier this year after police requested their help to clear it out. “It was overrun with criminals. There were people with guns, drugs, making fake alcohol," he said. "Normal police couldn’t come here, it was too difficult.”
> 
> Realizing they’d stumbled upon the ideal workshop, Azov signed a lease and set up.
> 
> “Before we were preparing our trucks in normal garages around Kyiv. These cars with all this armored equipment and anti-tank rockets were sitting in the garage of a private person,” he laughs. “This is our reality, Ukraine reality.”
> 
> Ukraine’s military budget went into decline after the country left the Soviet Union in 1991, a trend that's only reversed recently. When separatist aggression started in the east in March 2014, the country’s defense force numbered 150,000 (out of a population of 45 million), only 5,000 of whom were battle ready. To tighten the slack, volunteers hastily organized themselves into battalions and headed to the front.
> 
> Most of the volunteer battalions, including Azov, have now been incorporated into the Ukrainian defense force, but they continue to operate pretty autonomously with their own structure of command—"We’re all brothers,” Zvarych tells us—their own recruitment and training programs, and in Azov’s case, their own tanks.
> 
> “We are the only volunteer battalion with our own tank factory,” Zvarych proudly tells us.
> 
> Azov have a controversial reputation, in no small part because of its white supremacist founder and penchant for Nazi symbolism: The battalion’s insignia, (which many members have inked on their forearms) is a modified Nazi Wolf’s Hook overlaying another neo-Nazi favorite, the Black Sun symbol. Many Azov members laugh off the Neo-Nazi label, emphasising that Russia is their only enemy. However the reputation has had serious consequences for the battalion, including exclusion from the US military training program.
> 
> Azov and some of the other volunteer battalions do have government-issued tanks, but Zvarych emphasises the government can take them back any time. Not so with their tanks, which belong to the battalion from tracks to turret.
> 
> Zvarych invited us inside the workshop, where a small team of student welders, engineers, and guys who worked here back when the factory made tractors, are finishing off their latest creation, "Azovette."
> 
> The battalion has a hodgepodge fleet of armored vehicles, including a converted garbage truck which they affectionately call "Pechyvo," Ukrainian for "Cookie." But today they’re working on converting a tank-turned-farm-tractor back to a tank.
> 
> Zvarych walks us around the metal beast, pointing out the layers of armor, each 7cm thick and lined with explosives intended to disperse the impact of any strike. Most projectiles capable of penetrating the 7cm of armor will be shaped-charged missiles, consisting of a hollow cone that lays concave to the tip of the projectile and is backed by explosives. When detonated, the explosives hit the apex of the cone and propel it forward, effectively turning the cone inside out and forming a focussed jet of explosive energy that drives the projectile forward for maximum impact. The explosives in Azovette’s armor are intended to counteract the shaped-charge by driving energy in the opposite direction so the cone can’t turn inside out to focus the blast.
> 
> The armor is spaced out in layers, creating chambers that keep any damage contained to that layer of armor. There are seven chambers of this reactive armor up front and three on the sides.
> 
> “Usually a tank has 10 or 20cm of armor (in the front) but we put in 1.4m. This tank can take anything, even a big missile from a plane. It can take all the modern equipment of all the armies,” says Zvarych.
> 
> He says Azovette is the perfect tank and compares the 50 tonne 5-seater to Nazi Germany’s super-tank, Panzer VIII Maus, a fully enclosed, 188 tonne goliath of mythological proportions that never passed the prototype stage.
> 
> A tank’s tracks are always one of its weak points so Azov engineers have reinforced Azovette’s track skirt with layers of custom armor. Zvarych says projectiles would have to hit the skirt three times in the exact same spot to get through to the vehicle.
> 
> Beneath all the armor, there’s an old T-64 battle tank, the best Soviet tank model ever made according to Zvarych.
> 
> “The new tanks, the T-52, T-80 aren’t as good,” he says. “The T-64s were only made for Russia and Ukraine, they weren’t given to export because they are the best.”
> 
> It turns out an old T-64 is pretty easy to come by in Ukraine. During Ukraine’s peace time, starting with its independence in 1991 and ending with the current conflict in March 2014, the tanks were put to other uses.
> 
> “The plant that made the tanks legalized them for everyday use. They made bulldozers and farm equipment using the tracks,” Zvarych says, pointing to a bright yellow tractor body that once belonged to the T-64 currently under construction. “Anyone can buy these.”
> 
> “A tank costs around $2 million to buy from the government but this tractor cost less than $50,000 and with the help of our engineers we can build a much better tank," he says.
> 
> Azov’s Engineering Group is about ten men working under the creative direction of the battalion’s own “crazy professor,” Mykola Stepanov.
> 
> Stepanov worked as an engineer and deputy director at Malyshev Factory for 46 years. The state-owned plant was the biggest tank manufacturer in the USSR and the birthplace of the T-64 currently in front of us.
> 
> “He can design any tank he wants,” Zvarych says.
> 
> Stepanov is in the zone when we visit. He spends the whole time standing at a workstation with glasses resting on the tip of his nose, still and silent except for an occasional pencil strike against his design sheet.
> 
> “For him this is a dream job. He’s our mad scientist,” Zvarchy says. “It’s much easier to build the tanks he wants here because he doesn’t need to have big meetings just to decide the placement of every bolt.”
> 
> Once Stepanov puts pencil to paper, the engineers and welders make it a reality. “If the Russians tried to make something like this it would take them 10 years. In Ukraine, maybe 8 years. In Azov, it takes around six months," Zvarych says.
> 
> Zvarych reckons Azovette will be ready to roll out in the next two months.
> 
> The tank will be fitted with two double barrelled 23mm caliber cannons that each fire around 3,400 round per minute plus a missile launcher with 8 missiles. Inside, the cabin has no viewing windows. Instead the crew rely on cameras on the front, back and sides of the tank and operate the turret and guns by joystick.
> 
> “It’s like a video game inside,” says one of the Azov soldiers.
> 
> Zvarych walks us through the workshop to a hall that looks like a machine graveyard. “They might look ugly, but there are some very unique machines in here,” he tells us.
> 
> “We use a lot of the equipment that was left behind. During the Soviet Union they made these machines to work 50 years," he says. "They’re still very good and very accurate. In the USSR, everything was like that. A very simple car should run. It runs shitty, it looks ugly, but it runs. And it will run for 50 years.”
> 
> As well as making the most of the abandoned machines, the battalion has scavenged scrap metal from the compound and relies on donated cash and materials from Ukrainian civilians and businesses.
> 
> “We have 1,200 fighters but around 50,000 people around us, working with Azov. We have a lot of people who just want to help us,” says Zvarych. “Every Ukrainian sees our government is useless. That’s why people help us with their work, money, food, clothing. They know with Azov they will be safe. With the government, they will not be.”
> 
> It’s true that distrust for Ukraine’s government runs deep here. Military bases, coffee shops and social media are swarmed with rumors of corruption, incompetence and disloyalty.
> 
> “The Ukrainian government couldn’t build this tank. Why? Because they steal the money much faster than they can spend it,” quips Zvarych.
> 
> Earlier this week a soldier told Motherboard about how he and his colleagues had “liberated” 40 sets of night vision goggles from government storage. He said the goggles were donated to Ukraine by the US and Canada as part of those countries’ non-lethal assistance programs but, the soldier says, the Ukrainian government locked them in storage around 50km from the frontline. He speculates the government intended to sell the goggles rather than provide them to the troops. The soldier’s story is unconfirmed, but it’s a good illustration of the little faith many Ukrainians have for their government.
> 
> “Trust me, our government doesn’t want this tank to have life,” says Zvarych. He says the government is more concerned about money than people, an attitude that just doesn’t fly with Azov. “The armor on this tank costs $100,000 but the five people inside it are worth much more.”
> 
> Zvarych echoes a sentiment we’ve heard before from soldiers in Ukraine: the government is not pulling its weight. Zvarych says that since Azov was incorporated into the Ukrainian defense force, it's received government support, including uniforms and weapons. But, he tells us, "Usually they are such shitty weapons. I have a pistol made in 1960... 1960!” A passing soldier holds up a small rock and says, "this is better.”
> 
> Azov's dissatisfaction with the Ukrainian government and its equipment is why it hopes to add weapons to its production line in the near future. But despite the Mad Max vibe in this compound, we’re not in some lawless dystopia, and Azov still has to clear some regulatory hurdles before it can expand its arms manufacturing.
> 
> “We have a lot of specialists who know what a gun should work and look like so when we get our own license we can make our own kind of weapon,” Zvarych says.
> 
> So does that mean Azov has a license for Azovette and her fellow Mad Max tanks?
> 
> “No, this is a tractor. For paperwork purposes it’s a tractor,” Zvarych says with mock innocence, “We put metal on our own tractor. Why would we need a license for this?”



Picts at the link are worth a view as well.


----------



## a_majoor

And the fallout continues to spread:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/09/14/uk-security-estonia-idUKKCN0RE12X20150914



> *Wary of Russia, Estonian volunteers rush to join militia*
> PALA, Estonia | By David Mardiste
> 
> Members of Estonia's part-time militia crouch in a sandy trench on a hilltop as machine gun fire echoes through rain washed forest. Russia may be some way off but it is wariness of a vast neighbour that is swelling the force's ranks, drawing labourers and office workers alike to a gruelling exercise.
> 
> The Defence League of the Baltic State has grown 10 percent to almost 16,000 soldiers since Russian President Vladimir Putin's annexation of Crimea last year and support for rebels in eastern Ukraine raised security fears in the small NATO nation.
> 
> "Young people today want to do their bit for the defence of their country," medic Riho Mannik, 35, said near a dug-in mortar position during the exercise of 700 volunteers, near the village of Pala 160 kms (100 miles) from the Russian border.
> 
> Mannik, who works as an ambulance team leader in his normal job, said young people can also learn skills from the military to help "their civilian life and their job prospects."
> 
> The Kremlin denies Western charges it fomented rebellion in Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine. But Tallinn fears the Kremlin could incite unrest among Estonia's own ethnic Russian, who account for some 25 percent of the population, concentrated in Tallinn and around Narva near the border.
> 
> Its fears are shared by the other Baltic states ruled from Moscow from World War Two until 1991 - Lithuania and Latvia.
> 
> Weary after a night in early September camping out in the rain in teams of attackers and defenders, an assault on the hilltop starts with simulated 81 mm mortar rounds and bursts of machinegun and small arms fire - all blanks.
> 
> Soldiers in camouflage gear run around the forest's hills and gullies and eventually, exercise umpires with blue tags on their uniforms say the attackers have suffered heavy losses and been repulsed.
> 
> But they are expected to regroup and hit the dug-in positions again in the exercise, dubbed "Northern Frog".
> 
> Apart from worries about Ukraine, many Estonians were angered by the sentencing in Russia last month of an Estonian police officer, Eston Kohver, to 15 years in prison on charges of espionage.
> 
> Tallinn say he was illegally abducted at gunpoint from a border crossing in September 2014 by Russians using radio jamming equipment and smoke grenades. Russia says Kohver was on Russian territory.
> 
> "The kidnapping ... made communication security and cyber defence even more important parts of our defence," Lieutenant Colonel Marek Laanisto, commander the Viru district of the Defence League, said as soldiers wearing headphones in a light truck tapped away on laptops.
> 
> NATO accuses Moscow of stepping up its military air and sea activity in the Nordic region. But Moscow denies any aggression and argues that the Western alliance has adopted a threatening posture towards Russia by incorporating the Baltic states into NATO after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
> 
> 
> SURGE
> 
> In the first half of this year, the number of soldiers in the Defence League, under the command of the Estonian Ministry of Defence and military HQ, rose by 504 to 15,577.
> 
> Numbers surged by 935 in 2014, almost all after Russia's annexation of Crimea in March. By contrast, just 324 people joined in all of 2013.
> 
> With an ageing, declining population of just 1.3 million, the regular Estonian defence forces have around 3,200 professional personnel. Estonia is one of few NATO nations to spend a NATO goal of two percent of gross domestic product on defence.
> 
> The smallest of the three Baltic countries, Estonia has maintained conscription for men over 18 since independence from the former Soviet Union in 1991, so it has a reserve of 60,000 who have completed basic military training.
> 
> Many in the Defence League - aged from 18 with no upper limit although all have to pass a fitness test - volunteer their weekends and week nights for training and attending yearly exercises like Northern Frog.
> 
> An emergency force, it can also be used to help in civil emergencies such as floods.
> 
> On a nearby hill, sergeant 1st class Taavi Saimre, who signed up this spring and is a member of the cyber defence unit, listens to the radio chatter.
> 
> "I was also influenced to join by the events in Ukraine," said Saimre, 41.
> 
> 
> (Reporting by David Mardiste, editing by Alister Doyle and Ralph Boulton)


----------



## The Bread Guy

While the Kremlin is upset about journalists being sanctioned in Ukraine (even though UKR stepped in it, a bit, banning then unbanning some BBC folks), it sentences a Crimean to hard time for posting articles criticizing Russia's annexation of Crimea.  Said Crimean apparently isn't the only Crimean being screwed over following the re-embracement of the penninsula into Soviet Russian hands.  All of this seems to be sparking, a bit of a protest starting this weekend.  

Meanwhile, the separatists are planning their own elections separate from the rest of Ukraine, and UKR Security Service bosses are being arrested for corruption during senior management meetings and separatists are nabbed for smuggling prosthetics into the east.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some pretty comprehensive open-source information mining about Russia not being in eastern Ukraine:

_"Russia's Path to War"_ (PDF, produced by British investigative journalists at bellingcat)
_"An Invasion by Any Other Name"_ (PDF, developed by the analysts at The Interpreter blog)
Lots of detailed reading, but loads o' detail - enjoy!


----------



## The Bread Guy

U.N. rapporteur:  both sides have some 'splainin' to do (highlights mine)....


> ....*A.           In areas controlled by the Government of Ukraine*
> (i)           Indiscriminate shelling
> 
> I am concerned that forces on the Government side are using weapons in the course of hostilities that are either inherently insufficiently precise  to justify within the context of a highly urban and civilian-populated conflict zone, or that weapons with a known level of precision are being used outside or without regard to proper Standard Operating Procedures to guide targeting.
> 
> Moreover I have not been convinced during my engagement with the relevant authorities that there is a proper investigation conducted when allegations of civilian casualties are brought to their attention. The answer that I got from some of the military authorities to the question when an investigation into allegations of excessive civilian casualties would be triggered, was that such a situation will never arise, because there was an order by the Minister of Defence that this should not happen. Such a denial that a problem could exist makes a solution veryvery difficult to achieve.
> 
> While I understand the difficulties of conducting investigations in territory outside the control of the Government’s armed forces, such difficulties should not be understood, as suggested in many of the meetings I had, as a reason to reject any possibility to verify civilian casualties caused by shelling or to assess alleged violations of international humanitarian law. The conflict is currently being closely monitored by several international organizations, which publicly report the occurrence of civilian casualties on both sides of the “contact line”. Combined with Ukraine’s military records on the use of artillery, and the possibility to contact families of casualties, morgues, hospitals or other sources for verification, it would be possible for the Government to assess the damage caused by its use of artillery.
> 
> Damage assessments conducted this way may not always amount to evidence solid enough to allow accountability for possible violations of international humanitarian law. However, credible estimations of civilian casualties would enable the armed forces to evaluate and strengthen precautionary measures taken to mitigate the impact of shelling among civilians.
> 
> (ii)          Detention
> 
> I have received several allegations of secret detention, in which individuals claim to have been detained for varying periods of time before being formally introduced to the penitentiary service. In some cases this initial detention takes place at the hands of officials thought to be of the SBU, in other cases such individuals have been apprehended by members of former volunteer battalions.
> 
> One facility that is mentioned frequently in this regard is the military base at Mariupol airport.  During my visit to Mariupol I attempted to conduct a pre-announced visit to this base, however I regret that, despite the advance notice, I was denied access to the facility. Other such detention facilities reportedly include the former detention facility (SIZO) of the SBU in Karkhiv, and the SBU office in Kramatorsk.
> 
> The existence of unacknowledged, secret detention facilities almost completely undermines the effective work being conducted by the National Preventive Mechanism and the Office of the Ombudsperson.  It is disappointing that judges and prosecutors, who are in many cases presented with quite clear prima facie cases of ill-treatment at the point that the detainee is presented formally to be remanded, do not respond more robustly to uphold the detainee’s rights. The impunity that exists for acts of violence in such conditions poses a clear and direct threat to the right to life.
> 
> (iii)        Alleged summary killings
> 
> I am concerned by reports of bodies discovered near Makiivka, in the Donetsk Region in September last year.  While several of these bodies appear to be members of the armed groups who died in combat, some are reported to bear signs of having been executed after being detained by Government forces.
> 
> (iv)         Integration of armed militias in command and control
> 
> At the time of the start of the conflict, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were underprepared for the nature or scale of the challenge that would confront them. Not all of the regular forces, to say nothing of the volunteer battalions, had been properly trained in military warfare, let alone International Humanitarian Law standards that should regulate the conduct of hostilities.
> 
> I want to underline questions concerning the responsibility for the actions of volunteer battalions, both now that the majority have been formally incorporated into the Ukrainian Armed Forces and during earlier stages of the conflict. Any extent to which the State is tolerating the existence of politically-motivated armed militias on its territory is a concern. The extent to which the State has been actively collaborating with those militiasmilitias, in order to participate in joint military operations against a common enemy suggests that the State’s responsibility for the actions of the members of those groups may be even more direct.
> 
> It seems that these “battalions” and groups operate in a climate of impunity, partly as a result of the pressure which they exercise on prosecutorial or judicial authorities if they attempt to pursue cases against members perceived by these groups of being “patriotic”.
> 
> (v)          The impact of restrictions on movement on the right to life
> 
> I am concerned by the potential (and in some cases realised) humanitarian impact of the limitations imposed by the government on free movement of people and goods in the Donbas region. The long queues which the resulting checkpoints inevitably entail have been the target of shelling.  The extent to which the barriers impede the transfer of vital medical supplies to hospitals on the eastern side of the “contact line” also raises serious questions about its appropriateness.
> 
> *B.           In areas not controlled by Ukrainian authorities*
> 
> As noted above, despite extensive efforts on the part of HRMMU, I was not able to meet with many representatives of the self-proclaimed ‘Donetsk people’s republic’ or self-proclaimed ‘Luhansk people’s republic’. This was extremely disappointing, given the number and gravity of allegations that have been made about the protection of human rights, including the right to life, in those territories.
> 
> (i)           Indiscriminate shelling and the positioning of artillery in civilian areas
> 
> Allegations have been made that the forces on the non-Government controlled side are deliberately positioning their artillery within close range of built-up civilian areas and occupying hospitals and schools, so as effectively to use civilians as a shield, or to entice government troops to cause civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure, which can then be used for political purposes.
> 
> The salience of this problem is demonstrated by the extent to which local populations have taken to the streets to protest it.  For example, there are reports that protests were held to this effect in Donetsk on 15 and 16 June 2015. In situations where people are reportedly reluctant to express dissent, this speaks to the severity of the threat to life posed by the tactics of these armed groups.
> 
> (ii)          Summary executions of detainees
> 
> There are allegations of the killing of detainees held by fighters of the self-proclaimed Luhansk people’s republic in Sievierodonetsk, as they were retreating from the city in July 2014. While local police had remained in control of their headquarters on Partyzanski Avenue the fighters had taken over the police IVS next door. On the day of the retreat, police reported hearing shots fired from within the IVS at around 5a.m. Several hours later, after the Ukrainian forces had arrived, the police re-entered the IVS, and discovered and documented two corpses in separate cells, each shot either in the neck or in the head. The corpses also showed signs of beatings.
> 
> (iii)        Allegations of quasi-judicial executions
> 
> I have been alarmed by allegations of executions taking place in quasi-judicial circumstances.  This has allegedly occurred both in the context of ‘military justice’ and in more civilian, ‘criminal justice’ context.  For example, it is alleged that in May 2014 the ‘minister of defence’, Igor Strelkov (Ghirkin) sentenced to death by firing squad two local commanders for looting, armed robbery, kidnapping and desertion. It is not known whether they were executed.
> 
> Summary executions may have been carried out under the pretext of criminal legal authority. In July 2014, when the Ukrainian Government regained control of Sloviansk, documents were found in the SBU building, which had been used as a detention facility by armed groups of the ‘Donetsk people´s republic’, that armed groups had given death sentences and carried out executions of at least three persons, reportedly based on legislation dating back to 1941.
> 
> In August 2014, it was reported that the ‘Donetsk people’s republic’s’ de facto authorities had introduced a document that they referred to as the 1960 criminal code, which included provisions for imposing the death penalty for the ‘gravest crimes’. Lawyers I spoke with, however, stated that the ‘constitution’ of the DPR proclaimed the right to life and that the imposition of capital punishment as provided in the criminal code would thus be incompatible with it.
> 
> (iv)         Threats against certain groups
> 
> Amnesty International found strong signs of alleged drug dealers having been executed by forces of the self-proclaimed ‘Luhansk people’s republic’ in the area of Sievierodonetsk. Their commander Oleksii Mozhovyi had publicly threatened anyone involved in drug trafficking on 3 June. On 13 June, the police found three bodies of persons they identified as suspected drug dealers.
> 
> In May and July 2014, there were reports of summary executions by self-proclaimed ‘Luhansk people´s republic’ forces in the area of Sievierodonetsk, Rubizhne and Lysychansk, in the Luhansk Region.
> 
> (vi)         Targeting of those hors de combat
> 
> As reported by the HRMMU, on 19 August, part of the town of Ilovaisk came under the control of Ukrainian armed forces. By 27 August, the Ukrainian troops in Ilovaisk were surrounded by the armed groups of the self-proclaimed ‘Donetsk people´s republic’. The same day, a safe corridor was negotiated for Ukrainian forces to leave Ilovaisk. However, at least one column of Ukrainian troops was heavily shelled while leaving Ilovaisk. Between 107 and more than 200 Ukrainian servicemen were killed, many of which were wounded soldiers being evacuated.
> 
> In January 2015, following the shelling of a bus station in which several people were killed, Oleksandr Zakharchenko, leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk people’s republic, made a statement on television announcing that his troops would give no quarter, and take no soldiers of the Ukrainian forces as prisoner. Making such a statement is a war crime. However, available evidence does not seem to indicate that this statement was implemented.
> 
> Also in January, Ukrainian soldier Ihor Branovytskyi was allegedly summarily executed while in captivity of the armed groups of the ‘Donetsk people’s republic’. Branovytskyi was among a group of 12 soldiers captured and taken to the base used by the so-called ‘Sparta battalion’ and severely beaten. When Mr Branovytskyi collapsed and fainted he was reportedly executed by the battalion commander Arsenii Pavlov (‘Motorola’). During my meeting with the Office of the commissioner for human rights’ of the ‘Donetsk people’s republic’ the ‘deputy ombudsman’ agreed to investigate this case.
> 
> (vii)        Downing of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17
> 
> On 17 July 2014, the downing of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 caused the death of 298 persons, becoming one of the most tragic events in the ongoing conflict. Despite initial difficulties to secure access to the site, international investigators now led by the Dutch Safety Board are expected to issue their final report in October. I welcome the progress achieved by the investigating team so far, and hope that the outcome of their work will serve as basis for accountability and provide relief to the families of victims....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Another good report just out from the Institute for the Study of War:  _"Putin’s Information Warfare in Ukraine: Soviet Origins of Russia’s Hybrid Warfare"_ (28 pg PDF) - also downloadable here if previous link doesn't work for you.


----------



## The Bread Guy

If you're an ORBAT geek enthusiast, UKR's Info-machine has posted a slideshare deck here outlining who's who in the Russian military zoo not working in eastern Ukraine, including names/photos, alleged C&C links back to Moscow, and individual unit numbers.


----------



## The Bread Guy

It's now official ....


> President Petro Poroshenko signed a Decree to enact the NSDC decision of September 2, 2015 “On the New Edition of the Military Doctrine of Ukraine”.
> 
> Under the document, *Ukraine is currently facing an acute military threat – Russian armed aggression, which includes temporary occupation of Crimea and aggression in certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Possible Russia’s military buildup in close proximity to the state border, inter alia, deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Crimea, militarization of temporarily occupied territories, presence of military contingent of Russia in Transnistria, intensification of Russian special forces in reconnaissance and subversive activities aimed to destabilize the internal situation in Ukraine pose a great threat to our country as well.*
> 
> The activity of illegal armed groups in Ukraine aimed to destabilize the internal social and political situation, intimidate people, suppress their will to resist, disrupt functioning of the state authorities, industries and infrastructure is another threat.
> 
> The Doctrine outlines military-political challenges that can transform into a threat of using military force against Ukraine. The first of them are Russia’s interference in the internal affairs of Ukraine, counteraction to the European choice of Ukrainians and to the formation of collective security system with participation of Ukraine.
> 
> *The Doctrine also stipulates scenarios that can endanger military security of Ukraine. The main scenario is full-scale armed aggression of Russia against Ukraine with decisive military-political goals.*
> 
> The main purposes of military politics, under the Doctrine, are based on the fact that “Ukraine wants to maintain friendly relations with all countries of the world based on the international agreements concluded on the basis of equality, non-interference in internal affairs, mutual respect for independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity”.
> 
> The Military Doctrine stipulates that the key task aimed to create conditions for the restoration of state sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine is comprehensive reform of the national security system to a level acceptable for the membership in the European Union and NATO; creating an effective security and defense sector, which provides ample capacity of national defense to repel armed aggression. Another purpose is the development of AFU under the western standards and achievement of interoperability with NATO Forces.


How's your Ukrainian?  So far, only the Ukrainian version of the pronouncement/doctrine is posted - will share a link to any English translation if/when one appears.

Meanwhile, in the east, a child is killed in an explosion at a separatist "tank biathalon" (something done in Russia, too - variation on the (old?) Canadian Army Trophy?) - with at least one official saying it may look like a "terrorist attack" (links to Russian-language article from separatist DNR government).


----------



## McG

UN and NGO humanitarian organizations are being ordered out of Luhansk by rebels:  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34355394


----------



## The Bread Guy

MCG said:
			
		

> UN and NGO humanitarian organizations are being ordered out of Luhansk by rebels:  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34355394


According to the Luhansk security service, Those Doctors without Borders folks were importing "psychotropic" drugs without approval (not to mention sending them to places not agreed to by the Luhansk separatist government) (links to article in Russian) - not much detail re:  why the others were punted - although they can apply again to come back in 3 months (another Russian-language article link)  Wonder if the Luhansk authorities'll keep the drugs, given how unsafely they were brought in & stored?

The Russian text also downloadable here if you don't want to give the Lugansk separatist authorities the satisfaction of hits to their web page  ;D


----------



## The Bread Guy

That's not a big Russian military base going up near Ukraine's border, it's just a big "military housing complex".


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> .... in the east, a child is killed in an explosion at a separatist "tank biathalon" (something done in Russia, too - variation on the (old?) Canadian Army Trophy?) - with at least one official saying it may look like a "terrorist attack" (links to Russian-language article from separatist DNR government).


The separatist government in Donetsk appears to be blaming an IED of some sort planted on an SA-13/Strela-10 for the explosion in this statement (in Russian) - also attached if link doesn't work.  I've also attached a PDF of the photos of the damaged Strela-10 from the page (second attachment).


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> According to the Luhansk security service, Those Doctors without Borders folks were importing "psychotropic" drugs without approval (not to mention sending them to places not agreed to by the Luhansk separatist government) (links to article in Russian) - not much detail re:  why the others were punted - although they can apply again to come back in 3 months (another Russian-language article link)  *Wonder if the Luhansk authorities'll keep the drugs, given how unsafely they were brought in & stored?*


As per the bit in yellow, the UKR Security Service's Info-machine says (in Ukrainian) the separatist health minister, who is also reportedly the "Former head of the regional pharmaceutical industry enterprises" before new management took over in Luhansk, is helping get meds & drugs (including those in Russia's humanitarian convoys) to separatist fighters illegally.

In other highlights, a big explosion at Odessa's UKR Security Svc HQ, the Dutch are _still_ repatriating bodies from the MH-17 crash site +400 days after the crash and a second-hand report that Putin may accept "international peacekeepers" of some kind in eastern Ukraine.


----------



## The Bread Guy

In spite of the bad taste being Soviet left in a lot of Ukrainians' mouths, the UKR military paid respects while re-burying Soviet soldiers killed during WW2 (article in Ukrainian) - photo attached.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Man bites dog!

You have a separatist leader and a Ukrainian military spokesperson saying the latest ceasefire is essentially the end of the war in Donbas.

You'd think all that fraternal assistance (former, not) Russian military force now (not) in eastern Ukraine may be needed elsewhere - or is Syria a way to keep the U.S. distracted from Ukraine (links to satirical Twitter post)?


----------



## Kirkhill

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Man bites dog!
> 
> You have a separatist leader and a Ukrainian military spokesperson saying the latest ceasefire is essentially the end of the war in Donbas.
> 
> You'd think all that fraternal assistance (former, not) Russian military force now (not) in eastern Ukraine may be needed elsewhere - or is Syria a way to keep the U.S. distracted from Ukraine (links to satirical Twitter post)?



I think that Putin can't be in two places at once.  Even if the contribution is in the form of small packets of aging aircraft and special forces.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Heh heh heh ....


> Kyiv mayor Vitaliy Klitschko has suggested to rename the street on which the Russian Embassy to Ukraine is located after Russian opposition leader and Vladimir Putin's vocal critic Boris Nemtsov, who was killed in Moscow on February 27, 2015 ....


----------



## Good2Golf

...or Star Spangled Way, or Democracy Avenue, etc... ;D


----------



## Kirkhill

Good2Golf said:
			
		

> ...or Star Spangled Way, or Democracy Avenue, etc... ;D



Or even "Ottawa Crescent".


----------



## The Bread Guy

From the UKR MoD Info-machine:


> Mr. Petro Mekhed, Deputy Minister of Defence — Head of Administration, held talks with Mr. Richard Fadden, National Security Advisor of the Prime Minister of Canada.
> 
> Mr. Petro Mekhed spoke about current situation in the east of Ukraine. According to him, the intensity of militants’ attacks has considerably decreased. Meanwhile, there are factors of situation escalation.
> 
> Deputy Minister thanked the Canadian party for assistance and praised the level of Canadian-Ukrainian defence cooperation.
> 
> “We thank the Canadian people and Canadian Government and the Ukrainian community in Canada for assistance,” Deputy Defence Minister stressed, “Everyone understands that this war is not just against Ukraine. It’s a global threat. We’ll continue to develop the Armed Forces of Ukraine, carry out reforms with our partners in order to develop independent, democratic European state.”
> 
> Mr. Richard Fadden reassured the Ukrainian party of the Canadian party readiness to continue the cooperation.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Fingers crossed ....

Separatists agree (after being "asked"?) to hold off on elections in the east (until February, anyway - link in Russian).
Both sides say the ceasefire generally seems to be holding.
Everybody seems to be (with maaaaaaaaaaaybe some exceptions?) taking their toys home for the moment.
Latest UKR info-machine map attached.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Fundraising update:  Ukrainian operators are (still) standing by for donations, now up to just under CDN $9.8 million - lotsa ways to donate for lotsa things!


----------



## The Bread Guy

An interesting tale about a UKR patients' safety group wanting to destroy more than 3M doses of polio vaccine (made by France, paid for by Canada & distributed by the WHO) because it partially thawed while being transported to UKR.  This appears to be the "nut" paragraph:


> .... The country’s health ministry believes some lobbyists are trying to destroy public confidence in overseas vaccines.
> 
> “They are targeting the international organisations that provided vaccines as humanitarian assistance,” said the deputy health minister Ihor Perehinets. “Someone doesn’t want to have procurement outsourced to international organisations – which are much more transparent while conducting procurement in Ukraine and abroad.” ....


Two cases of polio have been identified in UKR, which is why WHO is keen on getting the vaccine out there ASAP.


----------



## CougarKing

I could have sworn there was a separate MH17 issue thread, but can't seem to find it in a search.

Reuters



> *Dutch Safety Board set to say MH17 downed by Russian-made missile, but not point finger*
> Mon Oct 12, 2015 12:29pm EDT
> 
> By Toby Sterling
> 
> AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - The Dutch Safety Board, issuing long-awaited findings on Tuesday of its investigation into the crash of a Malaysian passenger plane over eastern Ukraine, is expected to say it was downed by a Russian-made Buk missile but not say who was responsible for firing it.
> 
> MH17 was shot down over territory held by pro-Russia rebels in eastern Ukraine on July 17, 2014, killing all 298 people aboard, most of them Dutch citizens.
> 
> Experts and Western governments believe rebels shot down the aircraft, possibly mistaking it for a Ukrainian military plane. Moscow has offered alternative theories, including that it might have been shot down by a Ukrainian fighter, or by Ukrainian forces.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## MilEME09

In reality because they didn't want to sound political no real new information (IE motive or blame) was released. On the otherhand Almaz-Antei air defense consortium decided to do a press conference to present their own version of events.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Proof to the separatists that you don't get something for nothing when you get help from Uncle Vlad .....


> In the occupied areas of Donbas militants opened items for mobilizing volunteers to be sent to Syria.
> 
> This was reported in the (UKR) Main Intelligence Department.
> 
> “There were observed at least two such items in Donetsk and also distribution of propaganda materials calling to join the” international battalion “Crusader” in Khartsyzk and Makiyivka towns”, – added the Department.
> 
> “Thus, mercenaries, apart from the high money reward for their participation in hostilities, were not given any social guarantees”, – added the Main Intelligence ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

The latest:  Elections went reasonably OK (even if monitors said more needed to be done to ensure voters could vote in the occupied areas - wonder why the separatists won't let folks vote ....), a medical NGO's been banned in occupied Donestk because of spying & drugs (the NGO denies it), another Canadian medical team's headed to UKR to help fix up the wounded, and fundraising efforts have netted more than CDN $9 million for the UKR military so far (operators continue to stand by).

Latest UKR Info-machine map attached.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Ooopsie ....

_“Suspended OSCE monitor confirms he’s Russian GRU officer”_
_“Drunk Russian ‘ex-Spetsnaz’ officer at OSCE fired from Ukraine mission”_
_“Following an incident involving a monitor in Severodonetsk last week of highly-inappropriate behaviour the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine took immediate steps the very same day to separate the individual from the mission ….”_ (OSCE statement on Facebook)


----------



## The Bread Guy

OSCE to both sides:  easy there, fella ....


> The Chief Monitor of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) to Ukraine Ertugrul Apakan today deplored the recent increase in the number and the gravity of ceasefire violations in eastern Ukraine, and urged the sides to honour their commitments under the Minsk agreements.
> 
> Since the beginning of November SMM monitors have reported that the level of violence has increased, especially near the remains of Donetsk airport.
> 
> “I am particularly concerned by the use of heavy weapons in Staromykhailivka, Krasnohorivka and the Kuibyshevskyi district of Donetsk city,” the Chief Monitor said.
> 
> He recalled the clear commitments to the ceasefire made by the sides in the Minsk Protocol and Memorandum of September 2014 and the Package of Implementation Measures of February 2015.
> 
> “SMM monitors have observed and reported two months of relative calm, and tentative steps by people in some areas towards rebuilding their lives and communities. We urge all sides not to turn back the clock on these positive developments and to honour their commitments and work towards a durable peace,” Apakan said.


Latest UKR Info-machine map attached.


----------



## The Bread Guy

A bit of a Crimea update:  power line pylons go "boom", no power for Crimea, can't tell how long it'll be until it comes back, Crimean Tatars are making it hard to fix (sometimes), Russia is underwhelmed and Ukraine's cutting off more than just power - here's why.
op:


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> A bit of a Crimea update:  power line pylons go "boom", no power for Crimea, can't tell how long it'll be until it comes back, Crimean Tatars are making it hard to fix (sometimes), Russia is underwhelmed and Ukraine's cutting off more than just power - here's why.
> op:


That whole power outage thing appears to be escalating a touch:  _"Russia Ramps Up Offensive Group in North Crimea; Brings Tanks, Grads to Border"_


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> That whole power outage thing appears to be escalating a touch:  _"Russia Ramps Up Offensive Group in North Crimea; Brings Tanks, Grads to Border"_


The latest:  <Boris Badinov voice>"You want to keep us in dark?  See how you like in cold"</Boris Badinov voice> -- _"Russia says to halt gas supplies to Ukraine, mulling coal cut off over Crimea"_


----------



## The Bread Guy

21 years ago today, Russia signed this ....


> .... The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm *their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations* ....


.... and now, this:  _"The Burning Road to Mariupol: Attacks from Russia during the Novoazovs’k Offensive of August 2014"_:


> This report investigates the claims of Russian involvement in the attacks leading up to and during the assault on Novoazovs’k between 23 and 27 August 2014. The report analyzes open source evidence to determine the source of artillery fire on Ukrainian units, as well as the origin of armored vehicles sighted inside Ukraine in the Novoazovs’k area.  Evidence from social media and satellite imagery shows that artillery attacks and armored vehicles sighted in the area of Novoazovs’k in July / August 2014 came from Russia (summarized in Figure 1 and Table 1). Two artillery attacks on 23 August 2014 came from Russian territory, and two T-72Bs and one 2s19 Msta-S sighted in Novoazovs’k after its capture were transported from Russia ....


----------



## vonGarvin

I guess the Russians assert that the political independence of Ukraine was violated by the West in the coup in 2014, thereby nullifying the treaty.


----------



## The Bread Guy

On the lighter side, from the separatist Info-machine (Google Translation - original in Russian) ....
*"After the war, the mayor's office of Donetsk plans to open the DNR residence of Santa Claus"*


----------



## vonGarvin

:rofl:


----------



## The Bread Guy

Technoviking said:
			
		

> :rofl:


If the Info-machine opened the window, I felt I had to go through it ....  ;D


----------



## The Bread Guy

A few quick news hits ....

U.N.:  +9K dead in the fighting so far
Russia:  We'll start sending you coal again ....
.... but about that money you owe us ($3B), it's off to court for YOU!


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some highlights:

UKR's Security Service nabs some wanna-be saboteurs (including some Russians)
Polio worries _still_ not put to rest
Russian state media trying to pull Turkey into the Crimean blackout fracas?
Separatist authorities clamp down on illegal Christmas trees (original in Russian - Google English version)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some tidbits:

Connecting the dots re:  the next possible flash point?  _"Russia violates Ukraine marine economic zone by setting drilling rig there" - "Kyiv Says Russia Loots $357 Million Oil Rigs In Black Sea" - "(RUS) FSB sends escort ship to protect Chernomorneftegaz boring rigs from Ukrainian warships" - "Crimean official calls not to underestimate Kiev’s provocations near Black Sea oil rigs"_ - check out the map below on one reason RUS may have been so keen to get Crimea back 
UKR to Crimea:  No goods for YOU!  _"Ukraine to Suspend Trade With Crimea in 30 Days: PM Yatseniuk"_
Meanwhile, _"Russia launches second line of power bridge to Crimea"_
Won't be getting Crimea back THAT way ... _"ICC can’t open case on Crimea annexation by Russia"_
Kiev court bans Communist Party in Ukraine (Google News hits)






(map source)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Putin:  we're there, but we're not really _there_, if you catch my meaning ...


> Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Russia did have personnel in eastern Ukraine who were carrying out certain military tasks but denied Moscow had deployed regular troops there.
> 
> "We never said there were no people there who were carrying out certain tasks including in the military sphere," Putin told an annual news conference.
> 
> "But that does not mean there are Russian (regular) troops there, feel the difference." ...


----------



## Kirkhill

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Putin:  we're there, but we're not really _there_, if you catch my meaning ...



I feel him.   [  Christ.

He isn't wrong this time.  What he isn't saying is that he has no "regular" army.

He has had to resort to converting his true believers of the GRU, the Spetsnaz, into regular army troops assigned to Army Divisions and it is those troops, together with some hired hands (I find it difficult to call them "professionals" they are more like the old time mercenaries) that are being employed - them together with the VDV and the Naval Infantry.    The masses of conscripts, even the masses of trained civilians, are no more.  And the army doesn't seem to be a very attractive employer to many.


----------



## The Bread Guy

How computer servers in Montreal are helping in the UKR-RUS info-fight ....


> Amid frosty relations, Ottawa is tackling a request from the Kremlin to go after a Ukrainian website, hosted in Canada, that is publishing identifying details of Russian soldiers fighting the Islamic State.
> 
> The website, which bills itself as a community of volunteers, has posted pictures, Facebook profiles, and even passport information of dozens of Russian soldiers stationed — semi-officially, unofficially, and secretly — in Syria. Many of the posts place the Russian soldiers at specific points in the country, citing geotags and geographic features in the photos.
> 
> The website says it is publishing the information in retaliation for Russia breaking a ceasefire in the Donbas region of Ukraine. A lookup of the site's .org domain name shows that it was registered to an address just South of Kyiv, while the servers themselves are located just south of Montreal, Quebec.
> 
> The website claims to show the substantial special forces and military hardware now on the ground, defending Assad's government and fighting the Islamic State.
> 
> Those tanks arrived in Syria in September, and have since become a large part of the ongoing fighting in the war-torn country, although the government of President Vladimir Putin has avoided officially recognizing the ground mission.
> 
> Russia's embassy in Canada confirmed on Thursday that a request was sent from Putin's government to the still fresh-faced Trudeau administration, asking them to remove the sensitive information that had been published on Canadian servers.
> 
> "At this point we can confirm that the Canadian side was duly informed on this matter. The Russian side expects appropriate reaction on this security-related issue," said a spokesperson from the Russian embassy ...


Could it be this site RUS is so upset about?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Chris Pook said:
			
		

> I feel him.   [  Christ.
> 
> He isn't wrong this time.  What he isn't saying is that he has no "regular" army.
> 
> He has had to resort to converting his true believers of the GRU, the Spetsnaz, into regular army troops assigned to Army Divisions and it is those troops, together with some hired hands (I find it difficult to call them "professionals" they are more like the old time mercenaries) that are being employed - them together with the VDV and the Naval Infantry.    The masses of conscripts, even the masses of trained civilians, are no more.  And the army doesn't seem to be a very attractive employer to many.


Now we hear NATO misunderstood what Putin said - at least according to RUS state media:


> NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg misunderstood Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statement by assuming that Russian “volunteers” located in eastern Ukraine meant “members of the military,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday.
> 
> “There was a war going on and people went there to fight, to shoot, and to participate in combat…that’s the military sphere,” Peskov told journalists in response of what the Russian president had in mind when he was speaking about military issues during his annual press conference on December 17.
> 
> When journalists asked Peskov to be more precise of what Putin was speaking about when discussing the military in eastern Ukraine that he meant Russian volunteers had been there and not regular military troops, Peskov said, “Yes.”
> 
> “That’s completely incorrect,” Peskov said in regard to Stoltenberg’s interpretation of Putin’s statement ...


Ahhhhh ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some tidbits ...

_"In Kamenetz-Podolsk Ukrainian and Canadian military determined the best in football and tug of war"_  (UKR MoD, in Ukrainian)
_“Ukraine, Separatists Agree To Cease-Fire During Holidays”_
Separatists poking closer to strategic port city Mariupol  _“Russian proxy fighters occupy strategic village on approaches to Mariupol”_ - _"(Separatist) Militants “cleaning” Kominternove – ATO headquarters"_ (in Ukrainian)
_“Russia to hit Ukraine with food embargo over new free trade deal with EU”_
_“The Militarization of Crimea under Russian Occupation”_ (Atlantic Council report)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some recent tidbits ...

UKR's president seeking EU peacekeepers - more - more
_"Moscow Red Cross Official Says Russia Used ‘Humanitarian’ Convoys to Ship Arms to Militants in Ukraine"_
_"93.1% of Crimea residents oppose electricity supplies on Ukraine’s conditions - pollster"_
_"In Ukraine, High Voltage Transmission Lines Collapse ,,Again ? Only 10% Of The Peninsula’s Crimea Republic’s Demand"_
Latest UKR Info-machine maps attached.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Conservative MP, no longer on the winning side, now calls for NATO to sell lethal weapons to UKR ...


> The NATO countries need to provide Ukraine with lethal weapons, which will allow it more effectively resisting the Russian aggression.
> 
> James Bezan, MP for Selkirk-Interlake in the Conservative Government of Canada, expressed such opinion in an exclusive interview with Ukrinform.
> 
> "The NATO, in particular the United States together with Canada, should consider the issue on providing Kyiv with lethal equipment as Russia does not fulfill the Minsk agreements. It will give Ukraine the possibility to defend its territory," Bezan said.
> 
> "Ukraine needs to be able to defend properly itself against the Russian troops. I sent a request to the Defense Ministry of Canada on a number of redundant equipment. We will examine this list to find out whether it meets the needs of Ukraine," he said.


----------



## Good2Golf

Didn't we already give the Grizzlies and Cougars to African nations? ???

Clearly, boots would be out of the question...


----------



## Journeyman

Good2Golf said:
			
		

> Clearly, boots would be out of the question...


Badges...we can clearly help them out with badges.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:
			
		

> Clearly, boots would be out of the question...


Been there, done that already, in fact ...


----------



## McG

Good2Golf said:
			
		

> Didn't we already give the Grizzlies and Cougars to African nations? ???
> 
> Clearly, boots would be out of the question...


Well, we have have signed the contract for TAPV and since decided we don't want to use it in the job most were bought for.  Maybe we could donate that.


----------



## Good2Golf

Aren't their old BRDMs better? ;D


----------



## The Bread Guy

An intriguing Canadian reference of _some_ sort ...

The UKR Defence Int web page has a story about volunteers in Zaporizhia having assembled what looks like a radio monitoring van for the UKR army.  Here's what a 14 Feb 2016 posting at the UKRDefInt page has to say (highlights mine):


> *Zaporizhia volunteers developed and sent an intelligence complex to the frontline*
> 
> Warriors of the 72nd separate mechanized brigade received the complex
> 
> There are some inventions of "Army SOS" and *some developments of the Canadian intelligence*. We united them and created an electronic intelligence vehicle", – Zaporizhia volunteer Vasyl Mezentsov tells. Almost a three-month work of the whole volunteer team preceded it.
> 
> Having developed the carborne complex, the volunteers gave the servicemen of the 72nd separate mechanized brigade an opportunity to listen to the radio communication of the militants for tens of kilometers. It has saved lives of the defenders of Ukraine many times ...


The Ukrainian-language version, translated (Google Trans), says this ...


> "There are some design" Army SOS "and *some developing Canadian intelligence*. We joined them and made the car radio intelligence "- says Basil Mezentsov Zaporozhye volunteer. This was preceded by nearly three-month work of a team of volunteers ...



There's an 8 1/2 minute UKR-language video on YouTube (uploaded 11 Feb 2016), attributed to Public TV Zaporozhye, showing the van, with some views inside ~4 minutes in.  The caption on the YouTube video uses the same wording as the UKRDefInt Ukrainian-language statement.

I'm guessing the video was shot around Christmas time because 1)  there's a couple of shots in the video of boxes wrapped in festive paper, and 2)  in one of the shots (see attached frame grab - gotta love the hats on the volunteers who helped put this thing together, no?), the truck is seen with a little Santa Claus tacked to the front.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Deja vu all over again, two years later?

_"‘Revolutionary forces' build camp after Maidan shootings anniversary"_
_"Maidan: Clashes between law enforcement and activists"_
_"Timoshenko says Ukraine’s president should call for parliament’s emergency session"_
_"Protesters light fires, spend evening on Independence Square"_
op:


----------



## MilEME09

and


Ukraine warns of amphibious landing prep near Mariupol
http://uatoday.tv/politics/ukraine-intel-reports-russian-army-s-preparation-for-amphibious-landing-near-mariupol-595860.html - Ukraine Today

No truce here, but thats not news
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/22/world/europe/fighting-in-ukraine-picks-up-sharply.html - NY Times


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some tidbits:

:  talking to UKR about lethal weapons, or _"not in direct talks"_?
_“(UKR) President awarded three Canadian doctors for assisting Ukrainian servicemen: Thank you for your care”_
OSINT trackers ID Russian troops involved in MH-17 shootdown


----------



## MilEME09

New documentary released about the battle of Debaltseve, I very much enjoyed it, though it seems more patriotic and doesn't address any of the issues that lead to the defeat at Debaltseve for Ukrainian forces.

https://youtu.be/SIzED67nk-E


----------



## CougarKing

Will this mean more ERA on Russian/Donbass separatist T-72s/T-64BVs to counter this ?

Defense News



> *EUCOM Nominee Would Consider Javelin in Ukraine*
> Aaron Mehta, Defense News 12:42 p.m. EDT April 21, 2016
> 
> 
> WASHINGTON — The likely next head of US forces in Europe believes there is a need in Ukraine for anti-tank weapons, and indicated a willingness to provide the Javelin system to Ukrainian forces during a hearing Thursday.
> 
> Appearing at his confirmation hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, the White House pick to lead US European Command (EUCOM), also said he would be interested in exploring whether a permanent brigade in Europe makes more sense than the current rotational plan.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## a_majoor

Ukraine rebuilds and modernizes its BMP-1 fleet to make them more effective. The new RWS is interesting:

http://nextbigfuture.com/2016/05/ukraine-makes-upgraded-bmp-1-armored.html



> *Ukraine makes an upgraded BMP-1 armored vehicle*
> 
> Ukrainian industry has developed to the prototype stage a major upgrade package for the Russian BMP-1 tracked infantry fighting vehicle (IFV).
> 
> The first prototype vehicle, designated the BMP-1 UM IFV, is being tested in Ukraine.
> 
> The BMP-1 was a Soviet amphibious tracked infantry fighting vehicle. BMP stands for Boyevaya Mashina Pekhoty 1, meaning "infantry fighting vehicle". The BMP-1 was the first mass-produced infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) of USSR.
> 
> Over 20,000 original BMP-1 and variants were produced in the USSR.
> 18000 were produced in Czechoslovakia)
> Another 3000 were produced in China
> 800 were made in India
> 
> The extensive modifications include the replacement of the original one-man BMP-1 turret, which was armed with a 73 mm 2A28 smoothbore gun, a 7.62 mm PKT co-axial machine gun (MG), and a KBM 9K11 Malyutka (Sagger) anti-tank guided weapon (ATGW) that was originally mounted on top of the main gun's barrel.
> 
> Many operators have removed the original wire-guided ATGW as it is difficult to control, especially in windy conditions.
> 
> In the upgrade, the baseline turret has been replaced by the locally developed Shkval overhead weapon station (OWS), production quantities of which have been developed for installation on a number of platforms including the locally manufactured BTR-3 8x8 series of armoured personnel carriers (APCs).
> 
> The OWS is armed with a stabilised 30 mm ZTM-1 dual-feed cannon, 7.62 mm KT coaxial machine gun (MG), and a 30 mm AG-17 automatic grenade launcher, which is mounted externally on the left side of the turret.
> 
> The ZTM-1 has an effective range in the ground-to-ground role of up to 2,000 m and can also be used to engage some types of aerial targets. It has a maximum muzzle velocity of 960 m/s.
> 
> Ready-use ammunition typically consists of 225 rounds of 30 mm ammunition and 2,500 rounds of 7.62 m ammunition; additionally it can carry 116 rounds of 30 mm grenade ammunition (of which 29 are ready use).



[/quote]


----------



## MilEME09

that 30mm cannon will be nothing to laugh at, this variant is clearly influenced by the current conflict completely and is designed to kill infantry and light vehicles.


----------



## cupper

Nothing really new here, but interesting no the less.

*Russian Military Involved In Shooting Down Flight MH17, Researchers Say*

http://www.npr.org/2016/05/07/477168263/russian-military-involved-in-shooting-down-flight-mh17-researchers-say?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_content=20160507



> Russian officials are trying to discredit a new report that implicates the Russian military in the shoot-down of Malaysia Airlines flight 17. Nearly two years ago, that attack in the skies over eastern Ukraine killed 298 people.
> 
> The latest report comes from a U.K.-based organization called Bellingcat, which bills itself as a group of citizen investigative journalists. Much of their work is done by volunteers, who sift through open source information on the web, using social media and satellite imagery. The group was launched with a crowd-funding campaign, and says it now receives a grant from Google.
> 
> Bellingcat has focused on a number of big stories such as the war in Syria and the terror attacks in Paris. The team has been interested in the MH17 case ever since the plane was shot down in July 2014.
> 
> Early on, the group found photographs of an anti-aircraft missile launcher that were taken in eastern Ukraine on the day the plane was shot down. Eliot Higgins, one of the founders of Bellingcat, says his group linked the missile launcher, called a Buk, to the Russian 53rd air defense brigade. That unit is stationed in the Russian city of Kursk, not far from the Ukrainian border.
> 
> "We discovered quite quickly that the soldiers there were using a lot of social media, posting photographs of each other, posting photographs of the base," Higgins says.
> 
> The photographs included pictures of their equipment, such as their Buk missile launchers. The launcher that was believed to have shot down the Malaysian airliner had an identification number that was partly worn away, but the researchers were able to pick out other unique characteristics. They included a dent in the side of the launcher and even the pattern formed by soot around the exhaust pipe.
> 
> "We looked at all these details and we were able to establish the number of the missile launcher, which was 332," Higgins says.
> 
> In other words, Bellingcat is saying that MH17 was shot down by a specific Russian missile launcher that was documented to be in eastern Ukraine at the time.
> 
> Spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, dismissed the Bellingcat report. She says it was the work of amateurs who ignored the information put forward by Russian experts and professionals.
> 
> Zakharova says the motives behind it are sinister. "We consider this whole campaign to be an attempt by certain destructive forces to demonize Russia by creating an image in the mass consciousness that's very far from reality."
> 
> Eliot Higgins says much of the information provided by the Russian experts has been refuted. He says there's a simple reason why Russia has been so adamant in rejecting any suggestion its troops were involved in the shoot-down.
> 
> Russia has continually denied it ever sent any troops or equipment across the border into Ukraine, Higgins says, because "to admit that they were responsible for MH17 is not only admitting to the murder of 298 people, but also admitting that they were lying for months and months to their own countrypeople."
> 
> The Safety Board in the Netherlands, where the flight originated, recently completed its investigation, saying the plane was most likely shot down by a Buk missile, originating from territory controlled by the Russian-backed separatists.
> 
> Dutch police are now conducting a criminal investigation into the attack, which may finally determine who fired the missile.


----------



## The Bread Guy

In case there's any doubters left out there, it's official:  the little green men/polite men weren't "local defence militia" after all.  This, from Russian state media (original in Russian, Google Translation below) from an article about a statue commemorating the little green men in Crimea unveiled this week:


> ... "Courteous people" call GRU unit of marines and paratroopers, who played a key role in maintaining peace during the reunification of the Crimea with Russia ...


Pix of the new monument, paid for by voluntary donations from Russians on the penninsula and beyond, attached.


----------



## The Bread Guy

A couple of slides attached from the latest deck from UKR's Defence Intelligence Info-machine (covering 15-21 July).


----------



## PuckChaser

Those rebels are sure well equipped and trained, they even have EW systems!


----------



## The Bread Guy

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> Those rebels are sure well equipped and trained, they even have EW systems!


Funny that, eh?

Maybe they're holding bake sales & fundraising like the Ukrainian military, and doing really, really well.


----------



## The Bread Guy

The deputy commander of one of UKR's mechanized brigades has been demoted & fired for selling arms & ammo - niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice - this, via Google English translation (original in Ukrainian here) from UKR's Prosecutor General's Office:


> July 22, 2016 by investigators of the Main Military Prosecutor's Office in conjunction with the staff of the Chief Directorate for Combating Corruption and Organized Crime of the Security Service of Ukraine conducted a special operation in the area ATO, which resulted in exposed while sales of ammunition deputy commander of 53 separate mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
> 
> Established that the said army officer being involved in the ATO in Donetsk region, during June and July 2016 for personal gain zbuv a civilian over 5000 units of ammunition (ammunition 7.62 mm and 5.45 mm, grenades RGD -5), for which he received 66 800 hryvnia***.
> 
> The suspect arrested in the order of art. 208 CCP Ukraine immediately after the last episode of committing a crime.
> 
> Ongoing priority of investigative and search actions aimed at establishing the origin of ammunition and other accomplices.
> 
> The issue of notification detainee suspected of committing crimes under Part. 1, Art. 263, p. 3. 410 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine (kidnapping a military official ammunition of abuse of power committed in a particular period, sales of ammunition) and a preventive measure in the form of detention.


*** - That works out to just under CDN $3,550.


----------



## MilEME09

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Funny that, eh?
> 
> Maybe they're holding bake sales & fundraising like the Ukrainian military, and doing really, really well.



If it's that easy to get good kit like that, maybe the CF should start selling cookies  >


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> If it's that easy to get good kit like that, maybe the CF should start selling cookies  >


Who's going to start the crowdfunding page, then?  >

IIRC, the UKR military has raised something in the order of double-digit millions of bucks this way.  There seems to be a post-Soviet practice of bringing food, goods and other stuff to the troops because people know the system can't keep up.


----------



## PuckChaser

So you want to go to a two way range? Here's what its like to be on the receiving end of a harassing attack...

https://www.funker530.com/poorly-dug-position-ukrainian/ (Subtitled swearing, unless you speak Russian/Ukrainian).


----------



## MilEME09

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> So you want to go to a two way range? Here's what its like to be on the receiving end of a harassing attack...
> 
> https://www.funker530.com/poorly-dug-position-ukrainian/ (Subtitled swearing, unless you speak Russian/Ukrainian).



Decent use of indirect fire at the end to keep their heads down, not bad for an AGS


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest wrap-up from the UKR Defence Intelligence Info-machine - map of suspected routes of RUS "fraternal assistance" to separatists attached:


> The situation in the area of anti-terrorist operation remains complicated and is defined by:
> 
> reinforcement/rotation of the enemy leading units and maintaining of tension along all the contact line through the continuation of shootings by the Russian occupation troops, especially on Mariupol direction;
> stepping-up of all the types of ISR, including UAVs, sabotage-reconnaissance groups and modern Russian EW systems;
> enhancement of combat efficiency of the military units of the 1st and 2nd Army Corps through active conducting of operational and combat training exercises during the summer training;
> on-going accumulation of weapons and military equipment, ammunition, POL and other materials, delivered from Russia.
> 
> During a current week, the intelligence agencies of Ukraine registered a considerable number of violations of Minsk agreements regarding withdrawal of weapons and military equipment. In particular, there was found out 60 facts of violations (over a previous week there were – 47), as follows:
> 
> within 15 km zone (there were discovered arty sys up to 100-mm caliber and tanks) – there were reported 27 facts, registering no less than 20 tanks and 7 mortars, the most part of which were found in the areas of Horlivka, Debaltseve, Donetsk, Luhansk, Makiyivka, Staromykhailivka, Shyroka Balka inhabited localities;
> within 25 km zone (there were discovered arty sys from 100-mm caliber and SP arty sys) – there were established 29 facts, registering more than 100 arty sys and SP arty sys, the most part of which were found in the areas of Almazna, Horlivka, Debaltseve, Donetsk, Mykolaivka, Luhansk, Olenivka, Stakhanov, Telmanove (Boikivske), Khriashchuvate inhabited localities .
> 
> Moreover, within 35 km zone, there were registered 10 facts, registering nineteen 122-mm MLRS “Hrad” in the areas of Debaltseve, Donetsk, Mykolaivka, Luhansk, Oleksandrivka, Torez (Chystiakove) inhabited localities ...


_More via link_


----------



## The Bread Guy

In case you're interested, _"Little Green Men: A Primer on Modern Russian Unconventional Warfare, Ukraine 2013-2014"_, courtesy of U.S. Army Special Operations Command - from the executive summary:


> This document is intended as a primer—a brief, informative treatment—concerning the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. It is an unclassified expansion of an earlier classified version that drew from numerous classified and unclassified sources, including key US Department of State diplomatic cables. For this version, the authors drew from open source articles, journals, and books. Because the primer examines a very recent conflict, it does not reflect a comprehensive historiography, nor does it achieve in-depth analysis. Instead, it is intended to acquaint the reader with the essential background to and course of the Russian intervention in Ukraine from the onset of the crisis in late 2013 through the end of 2014. The document’s key points are summarized below.
> 
> Part I. Context and Theory of Russian Unconventional Warfare
> 
> Key Principles
> Strategy to deal with states and regions on the periphery of the Russian Federation
> Primacy of nonmilitary factors: politics, diplomacy, economics, finance, information, and intelligence
> Primacy of the information domain: use of cyberwarfare, propaganda, and deception, especially toward the Russian-speaking populace
> Persistent (rather than plausible) denial of Russian operations
> Use of unidentified local and Russian agents
> Use of intimidation, bribery, assassination, and agitation
> Start of military activity without war declaration; actions appear to be spontaneous actions of local troops/militias
> Use of armed civilian proxies, self-defense militias, and imported paramilitary units (e.g., Cossacks, Vostok Battalion) instead of, or in advance of, regular troops
> Asymmetric, nonlinear actions
> For the purpose of clarity and uniformity within this study, the authors use the term unconventional warfare to embrace the wide variety of military, informational, political, diplomatic, economic, financial, cultural, and religious activities Russia employed in Ukraine.
> Evolution of Russian unconventional warfare. Russian intervention in Ukraine has featured refined and modernized techniques evolved through observation and analysis of Western methods (the color revolutions, Arab Spring) and Russian experiences since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Specifically, they drew lessons from interventions in:
> Lithuania, 1991
> Transnistria, 1990–1992
> Chechnya (and Dagestan), 1994–1996 (1999–2009)
> Georgia, 2008
> Russian information warfare has emerged as a key component of Russian strategy. Igor Panarin and Alexandr Dugin are the primary theorists.
> Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov’s model for interstate conflict reflects the growing importance of nonkinetic factors in Russian strategy.
> 
> Part II. Russian Unconventional Warfare in Ukraine, 2013–2014
> 
> Historical Context
> Ukraine’s historical, cultural, religious, and economic ties to Russia make it a vital interest to Moscow.
> Western encroachment into the Russian sphere of influence, primarily through North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) expansion and European Union (EU) economic ties, stimulated a reactionary movement among Russian conservatives to stop the loss of peripheral states to the West.
> The Crimean peninsula, with a majority of ethnic Russians, includes Russia’s Black Sea naval base of Sevastopol and is a vital interest to Moscow.
> The Maidan movement is viewed as a product of Western—especially American—conspiracy.
> Vladimir Putin has boosted his popularity by portraying himself as the defender of Russian nationalism and Russian Orthodoxy in Ukraine.
> Russian Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures in Ukraine, 2013–2014
> Political organization within the conflict region to create and sustain pro-Russian political parties, unions, and paramilitary groups
> Recruitment and support of regional SPETSNAZ
> Importation of “little green men”—unidentified Russian agents (usually SPETSNAZ) to organize and lead protests and paramilitary operations
> Importation of Cossack, Chechen, Serbian, and Russian paramilitary “volunteers”
> Persistent (rather than plausible) denial of Russian operations, even in the face of photographic evidence and firsthand testimonials
> Domination of television, radio, and social media through the use of highly trained operatives, including “hacktivists” and seemingly independent bloggers; use of Russia Today television as a highly effective propaganda tool; use of professional actors who portray themselves as pro-Russian Ukrainians
> Use of blackmail, bribery, intimidation, assassination, and kidnapping against regional political opponents and government officials, including police and military officials
> Use of “relief columns” to import weapons, soldiers, equipment, and supplies to pro-Russian forces
> Small-scale invasion and precision operations by conventional Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) based along the Russian border
> Issuing Russian passports to pro-Russian populations and touting Moscow’s need to defend the Russian diaspora against alleged abuses
> 
> Conclusion
> 
> Driven by a desire to roll back Western encroachment into the Russian sphere of influence, the current generation of Russian leaders has crafted a multidisciplinary art and science of unconventional warfare. Capitalizing on deception, psychological manipulation, and domination of the information domain, their approach represents a notable threat to Western security.
> The new forms of Russian unconventional warfare challenge the structure of the NATO Charter, because they obviate the appearance of “armed invasion.”


----------



## The Bread Guy

Separatist eastern UKR leader survives urban IED strike - this from the OSCE:


> On 6 August at 07:51hrs the SMM heard an explosion approximately 3.9km east of its location in Luhansk city.
> 
> The SMM went to the site from where it had heard the explosion located at the intersection of Karpynsky and Vatutyn Street in Luhansk city, 500m north-east of SMM’s accommodation. The site was cordoned off, by so-called “LPR” “police” and the SMM could assess from a distance of approximately 15-30 meters, that an explosion had likely been caused by an improvised explosive device (assessed as approximately 1kg of high explosives) placed next to or in, a lamp post about two meters away from the vehicle, which was damaged and downed, at the side of the road. The SMM saw a black sport utility vehicle “Toyota Landcruiser Prado” severely damaged with windows shattered and front and side airbags deployed.
> 
> “LPR” “police” members at the site told the SMM that there were two casualties, without giving further details. Mr Vladislav Deynego, “LPR” member, told the SMM that Mr Plotnitsky was “in a bad condition and not able to receive visitors.”  At the time of writing, the SMM could not reach personnel at either of the two hospitals in Luhansk city for confirmation.
> 
> The SMM will continue following up to confirm the information, and observe further developments.


This from the Luhansk Info-machine (Google English - original in Russian here):


> LNR Ministry of State Security informs that today, 08.06.2016, at about 8 am, in Lugansk, on the crossroads of Karpinski and Vatutin street car occurred undermining the Head of the Luhansk People's Republic. As a result, two people were injured. They are currently hospitalized in the medical facility, where they are given the necessary medical assistance. According to doctors, the state of health of the Head of the Republic is not in danger.
> 
> For the investigation of a crime, an interdepartmental commission from among the representatives of the General Prosecutor's Office, Interior Ministry and the Ministry of State Security LNR.
> 
> The different versions of the incident, including the actions of the Ukrainian DRG. Operative-search measures, as well as forensic investigations. The issue of opening a criminal case.
> 
> Currently, in the Republic announced a plan to intercept the identification of sabotage and reconnaissance groups.


Some LNR Info-machine video & pix here.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Whazzup in Crimea ...

_"Activists: Russian Military Hardware Sighted Along Northern Crimea Border"_ (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty)
_"Russia massing tanks near Crimean Dzhankoy at border with mainland Ukraine – witnesses"_ (UT - UKR media)
_"Situation along checkpoints with Crimea remains tense - Ukraine Border Guards"_ (UT - UKR media)
_"Border traffic was limited due to the Russian military exercises in Crimea"_ (Events in Crimea page, generally pro-UKR)
_"Tense atmosphere on the border with Crimea is explained by rotation of Russian troops - Hordeyev"_ (112-international, UKR television/online media)
... and from what some of the others are saying?

_"Ukraine claims Russian invasion possible ‘at any minute’ "_ (_Irish Times_)
_"(Donetsk's separatist Chairman) Denis Pushilin: War Against Ukraine may be Imminent"_ (Fort Russ, generally pro-RUS)
_"(UKR Chair of Nat'l Security & Def Council) Oleksandr Turchynov: Martial law can be imposed only upon the existence of threats to the sovereignty and security of Ukraine"_ (UKR gov't Info-machine)
_"Oleksandr Turchynov: The Kremlin’s two scenarios against Ukraine"_ (UKR gov't Info-machine)


----------



## Kirkhill

Any sign of activity in Tiraspol or Transdnistria generally?

Armyansk is 300 km from Mariupol with, apparently, flat, open, hard ground between them.

Armyansk is also 230 km from Odessa but the Russians would have to cross the Dnieper.  On the other hand, they have a secure airhead at Tiraspol on the same side of the Dnieper as  Odessa and only 90 km away.

With a friendly Turkey and the Ukrainian coast secured the Black Sea would become a Russian lake again.  Especially if Bulgaria switched sides again.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Chris Pook said:
			
		

> Any sign of activity in Tiraspol or Transdnistria generally?


They asked for NATO to replace "fraternal" RUS troops not too long ago, but that's not happening  ;D



			
				Chris Pook said:
			
		

> Armyansk is 300 km from Mariupol with, apparently, flat, open, hard ground between them.
> 
> Armyansk is also 230 km from Odessa but the Russians would have to cross the Dnieper.  On the other hand, they have a secure airhead at Tiraspol on the same side of the Dnieper as  Odessa and only 90 km away.
> 
> With a friendly Turkey and the Ukrainian coast secured the Black Sea would become a Russian lake again.  Especially if Bulgaria switched sides again.


All good points - it'll be interesting to keep watching ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some maps of what UKR Defence Intelligence says is happening in Crimea (source).


----------



## The Bread Guy

Poke ... poke, poke, poke ...

_"FSB Russia prevented the commission of the Republic of Crimea terrorist attacks prepared by the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine"_ (FSB news release, in Russian - also attached) -- Google English translation
_"SBU***: Ukraine does not try to regain Crimea by force"_ (112-international, UKR private media)
_"Russian FSB foils terrorist attacks plotted by Ukrainian intel agents in Crimea"_ (RT, RUS state TV)
_"Russia allegedly arrests Ukraine Spec Ops who planned terrorist attacks in Crimea"_ (Ukraine Today, private UKR media)
_"Russia accuses Ukraine of armed Crimea incursion, says two killed"_ (Reuters, UK-based wire service)
_"Ukrainian General Staff Denies Kiev Involved in Plotting Attacks in Crimea"_ (RIA Novosti, RUS state media))
*** - UKR Security Service


----------



## The Bread Guy

And this from UKR Defence Intelligence (original in Ukrainian - Google English below) ...


> *The grouping of Russian troops in the Crimean out the anti-terrorist measures threats*
> 
> August 10, 2016
> 
> A related activity as occupiers at the border and at other strategic sites in Crimea
> 
> The grouping of the Armed Forces Fleet in Crimea is working on anti-terrorism measures threats. The broadcast said the representative of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Vadym Skibitskyy.
> 
> "Units of the Black Sea Fleet units Interior Natshvardiyi work out the issue of strengthening the protection of strategic facilities, safety measures and prevent terrorist acts. A related activity both at the border and around other strategic facilities in the Crimea ", - said Vadim Skibitskyy.
> 
> "We do not exclude provocations, which can be implemented on the territory of Russia occupied Crimea and other occupied territories of our country," - said the representative of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine.


... with this reminder, also from UKR DefInt (links to article in Ukrainian):  _*"Russian forces in Crimea are able to use nuclear weapons"*_


----------



## Kirkhill

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Poke ... poke, poke, poke ...
> 
> _"FSB Russia prevented the commission of the Republic of Crimea terrorist attacks prepared by the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine"_ (FSB news release, in Russian - also attached) -- Google English translation
> _"SBU***: Ukraine does not try to regain Crimea by force"_ (112-international, UKR private media)
> _"Russian FSB foils terrorist attacks plotted by Ukrainian intel agents in Crimea"_ (RT, RUS state TV)
> _"Russia allegedly arrests Ukraine Spec Ops who planned terrorist attacks in Crimea"_ (Ukraine Today, private UKR media)
> _"Russia accuses Ukraine of armed Crimea incursion, says two killed"_ (Reuters, UK-based wire service)
> _"Ukrainian General Staff Denies Kiev Involved in Plotting Attacks in Crimea"_ (RIA Novosti, RUS state media))
> *** - UKR Security Service



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gleiwitz_incident


----------



## The Bread Guy

Chris Pook said:
			
		

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gleiwitz_incident


Great minds think alike - or fools seldom differ  ;D

I figured you or Technoviking would punch that in


----------



## Kirkhill

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Great minds think alike - or fools seldom differ  ;D
> 
> I figured you or Technoviking would punch that in



TV would have -  but he is conflicted  >


----------



## The Bread Guy

The latest:  Putin uses the "T" word ...


> Kiev has turned to the “practice of terrorism” instead of trying to peacefully resolve Ukraine’s crisis, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in commenting on an FSB report that it had foiled terrorist attacks in Crimea plotted by Ukrainian intelligence.
> 
> Ukraine is “playing a dangerous game,” the Russian leader said when talking to reporters on Wednesday, while calling Kiev’s actions “stupid and criminal.”
> 
> *Moscow cannot turn a blind eye to the deaths of its servicemen who were killed during special operations to prevent terrorist attacks in Crimea*, Putin said.


Re:  that bit in yellow - unlike these RUS servicemen killed, right?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Just added to previous RUS state media account:


> ... Given that the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (HUR MOU) was allegedly behind the thwarted terrorist attacks in Crimea, it is “pointless” to meet with Ukraine’s current authorities to seek a solution to the country’s crisis, Putin said.
> 
> The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France, and Germany were to meet in the so-called “Normandy format” to discuss the peace process in Ukraine on the sidelines of the upcoming G20 in China.
> 
> However, Kiev has demonstrated that it’s not interested in peaceful negotiations, the Russian president told reporters, adding that he would like to address the matter with Moscow’s American and European partners as well.
> 
> “I think it’s obvious that Kiev’s current authorities are not seeking for ways to solve problems through negotiations, but have turned to terrorism,” Putin said, adding that this new development is rather alarming ...


And this via RUS military TV (link in Russian):


> ... Vice-Speaker of the Crimean parliament Remzi Ilyasov said that the penetration of Ukrainian spies on Russian territory and preparation of acts of terrorism should be considered as a tacit declaration of war. This he told RIA Novosti. According to Ilyasov, diversion is an act of aggression, in accordance with the UN resolution ... "Given that in this attempt to sabotage attempt of state terrorism, is the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, it can be considered, in fact, a declaration of war", - said the Deputy Speaker ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

One last update for the moment -- from the horse's mouth, Putin's comments from the official RUS Pres page, English version:


> ..._* Question: I have a question on settlement too, though on a somewhat different subject.  Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke in Baku of the possibility of a Normandy format meeting taking place on the sidelines of the G20 in China. Mr President, what is the likelihood of such a meeting taking place, particularly when, as reports say, the Russian intelligence services have just prevented the Ukrainian intelligence services from carrying out terrorist attacks on Crimean soil?*_
> 
> Vladimir Putin: Yes, these are very worrying reports. Indeed, our intelligence services prevented a sabotage and reconnaissance group from the Ukrainian Defence Ministry from infiltrating Crimean territory. In this situation, a Normandy format meeting would not make much sense right now, all the more so in China.
> 
> Judging by the situation, those who seized power in Kiev back then and still hold it now are not seeking the sort of compromise solutions I spoke of with regard to the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement process, and instead of working towards a peaceful solution have decided to turn to terror.
> 
> This brings to mind the attempt on the life of the head of the Lugansk People’s Republic, which seems to fit into this same context. And now we have this attempt to infiltrate Crimea. I think that the media have already reported that Russia has casualties and lost two military servicemen in this incident. We cannot ignore such matters, of course.
> 
> However, I would like to appeal to our American and European partners too. I think it is now clear to all that the authorities in Kiev today are not looking for a solution to the problem through negotiations, but are resorting to terror. This is a very worrying development.
> 
> What we have seen just now in Crimea looks like a foolish and criminal action. It is foolish because you cannot have a positive impact on the people in Crimea in this manner, and it is criminal because people have lost their lives.
> 
> However, I think that the situation is actually even more worrying because acts such as this have no sense other than to divert the people in Ukraine itself from the lamentable economic situation and the serious difficulties in which many people there live today.
> 
> This attempt to provoke a flare-up of violence and spark a conflict is nothing other than a desire to divert public opinion at home from those who seized power in Kiev and who continue to hold it and to rob their own people in order to remain in power as long as they can and create conditions for continuing to rob their people. This was an act committed using low and base means, and it is a very dangerous game.
> 
> We will do everything we can, of course, to ensure security at infrastructure facilities and protect people, and we will take additional security measures, serious additional measures, technical and others.
> 
> Most important of all, those who support the current authorities in Kiev must decide just want they want. Do they want their clients to continue carrying out provocations of this kind, or do they want to genuinely reach a peaceful settlement? If they do want this, and I very much hope they do, it is time to finally take some real steps to put the needed pressure on the current authorities in Kiev.


Comments in Russian, if you can read Russian, of course  ;D


----------



## The Bread Guy

A few updates ...

_"Militarization of Crimea: Bastion and BAL Coastal Defense Missile Systems"_ (InfoNapalm pro-UKR OSINT group) - _"Russian troops in Crimea receive S-400 antiaircraft missile system"_ (TASS - RUS state news agency)
_"Russian PM says Moscow could break off diplomatic ties with Ukraine"_ (RT - RUS state TV) - _"Why Russia may sever diplomatic ties with Ukraine "_ (_Christian Science Monitor_ newspaper)
_"The Ukrainian Canadian Congress (UCC) strongly condemns the Russian Federation’s military escalation, its aggressive, provocative statements, and continued refusal to honour a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine ..."_ (UCC statement) - UCC briefing note for Canadian MP's (10 pages) attached


----------



## cupper

Sounds like Putin may have an idea that moving in the near future on fabricated provocations will throw the US and Europe into a quandry.

Obama is in the final 6 months of his presidency, and a US election that has become more reality television than serious choice. His outright disgust for Clinton, and Trump's loving tributes might well be giving Putin the idea that now would be a good time to start consolidating his position make some expansion room.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Three days - pretty timely response (not) ...


> The Honourable Stéphane Dion, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today issued the following statement:
> 
> “I am concerned by the heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and by the actions and rhetoric that are contributing to these tensions. We have seen no evidence to support recent Russian accusations. At this critical time, Canada urges all sides to intensify their diplomatic efforts and make every effort to avoid provocations.
> 
> “Canada continues to condemn Russia’s violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and we are resolute in our position that we do not recognize the illegal annexation of Crimea. We also underscore, as have our partners and allies, the need for full implementation of the Minsk agreements, in order to end the violence and bring about a peaceful and durable solution in eastern Ukraine.”


----------



## The Bread Guy

A few slides from the UKR Defence Intelligence Info-machine (source) on their read of the situation 5-11 Aug 2016.


----------



## MilEME09

Given Russia's history, August will be when something happens, right after the Olympics. My guess is a false flag move to invade Ukraine, in either case any large scale action against Ukraine, would probably result in Ukraine loosing, they just lack the EW, air, and counter battery assets to mount a consolidated defense against well trained VDV forces.


----------



## Lumber

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> Given Russia's history, August will be when something happens, right after the Olympics. My guess is a false flag move to invade Ukraine, in either case any large scale action against Ukraine, would probably result in Ukraine loosing, they just lack the EW, air, and counter battery assets to mount a consolidated defense against well trained VDV forces.



But surely, all those Western troops participating in various "Op Reassurance" type operations will intervene to protect them, won't they?


----------



## George Wallace

Lumber said:
			
		

> But surely, all those Western troops participating in various "Op Reassurance" type operations will intervene to protect them, won't they?



That is quite a difficult question to answer.  With the number of nations involved, 100% consensus in any matter is likely to be difficult to do.  Currently, in the safety of 'peace' the optics are good for those nations to participate.  If, however, a conflict begins, then you have each of those nations now having to make the political decisions of what they want their troops to do and what ROE they can apply.  Do each of those nations have the 'courage' to send their troops head-on into battle or will they have reservations?  The answer will vary among all nations involved.


----------



## Lumber

George Wallace said:
			
		

> Do each of those nations have the 'courage' to send their troops head-on into battle or will they have reservations?



As long as the US is involved, I think they'd have the cojones. 

For Canada, and any other nation providing troops that aren't directly threatened by Russia, I'd give them until the first Russian Artillery barrage takes out an entire company of our/their troops. After that, the public will cry fowl and the government will pull everyone home.


----------



## Kirkhill

Lumber said:
			
		

> As long as the US is involved, I think they'd have the cojones.
> 
> For Canada, and any other nation providing troops that aren't directly threatened by Russia, I'd give them until the first Russian Artillery barrage takes out an entire company of our/their troops. After that, the public will cry fowl and the government will pull everyone home.



And the US election is on November 8 with inauguration on January 20.....

Vlad has a two to five month window under Obama and the prospect of either Trump or Clinton after that.  The EU has its collective minds on other matters.


----------



## McG

Lumber said:
			
		

> But surely, all those Western troops participating in various "Op Reassurance" type operations will intervene to protect them, won't they?


Reassurance is not about protecting the Ukraine.  Reassurance is about protecting NATO nations.


----------



## Lumber

MCG said:
			
		

> Reassurance is not about protecting the Ukraine.  Reassurance is about protecting NATO nations.



I said Op Reassurance "type" operations; but fine, OP UNIFIER than.

Just can't please anyone these days...


----------



## McG

Lumber said:
			
		

> I said Op Reassurance "type" operations; but fine, OP UNIFIER than.
> 
> Just can't please anyone these days...


You are right.  You used vague/incorrect language, but my clairvoyance clearly should have lead me to understand that 





			
				Lumber said:
			
		

> ... Western troops participating in various "Op Reassurance" type operations ...


is a reference to other NATO nations' soldiers deployed on a mission that has nothing in common with Canada's Op Reassurance but rather with Canada's Op Unifier.

In any case, I assume that Op Unifier pers (and other nations' pers participating in similar missions) have contingency plans to extract from the country if Russia launches across the boarders in force.  Unifier is a training mission; it is not a deterrence or reinforcing mission.


----------



## MilEME09

MCG said:
			
		

> In any case, I assume that Op Unifier pers (and other nations' pers participating in similar missions) have contingency plans to extract from the country if Russia launches across the boarders in force.  Unifier is a training mission; it is not a deterrence or reinforcing mission.



Since much of the training is done near the polish border, I imagine it's as simple as a convoy rolling north across the border


----------



## Lumber

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> Since much of the training is done near the polish border, I imagine it's as simple as a convoy rolling north across the border



Yep. We're there to help! Unless they actually need help...


----------



## PuckChaser

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> Since much of the training is done near the polish border, I imagine it's as simple as a convoy rolling north across the border


Crash moves aren't easy, especially if you're an inherently tied down organization with no real combat capacity in a training role. How much notice would they even get? Video on CNN? We don't even know if UNIFIER has enough integral lift for every butt to a seat.


----------



## Lumber

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> Crash moves aren't easy, especially if you're an inherently tied down organization with no real combat capacity in a training role. How much notice would they even get? Video on CNN? We don't even know if UNIFIER has enough integral lift for every butt to a seat.



If recent experience aboard Fredericton while deployed in the Mediterranean, then yes, CNN/BBC would be their first indication.

I wonder if they have ROE for if the Ukrainian units they are sequestered with come under attack. Self-defence obviously...


----------



## PuckChaser

If they have weapons handy, and ammo...


----------



## MilEME09

A win declared for Ukraine after a British company manages to reduce drug costs in Ukraine by as much as 25%
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/23/uk-crown-agents-cuts-cost-medicines-quarter-ukraine-health-service

looks like a win for fighting corruption, atleast in the medical/health services field


----------



## The Bread Guy

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> Those rebels are sure well equipped and trained, they even have EW systems!


More on that (from pro-UKR OSINT group) ...


> ... In Ukrainian and foreign press, there have been repeated reports of Rtut-BM, an upgraded Russian station for jamming radio controlled proximity fuses of ammunition being used in Donbas hostilities. However, there have been no photos or video footage confirming these statements yet. In the course of OSINT activities the volunteers of InformNapalm found pictures of the mentioned station on a female terrorist’s social network page.
> 
> On the photo posted by the female terrorist in late July 2015, a tactical sign “25 in a rhomb” is visible on the armor of the station. Russian occupation troops use such tactical signs in the territory controlled by the DPR terrorist organization. This sign is likely to belong to the so-called separate EW company, (military unit 08821), located in Donetsk (today the tactical sign of this unit is modified to “25 in a trapezoid”). Also, on the vehicle body one can see the original vehicle side number 412 , which they obviously have tried to wipe off ...


Photo in question attached - a bit of open source triangulation on the possible location here.


----------



## MilEME09

For those eager to get to a two way range, here is some sober thought. On the other hand well put together video by the Ukrainians

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMpE_G2FJvw


----------



## Oldgateboatdriver

Always impressive to see those Katyusha in action - but I definitely would not like being on the receiving end.


----------



## Journeyman

Oldgateboatdriver said:
			
		

> Always impressive to see those Katyusha in action - but I definitely would not like being on the receiving end.


Yes, that old adage definitely applies:  "it's better to give than to receive."     ;D


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR DefInt's take of where RUS troops are with the big "Caucasus 2016" (alleged, at least) exercise - some slides attached.

Here's RUS MoD's take on the ex, with a slick graphic:


> (Monday) the strategic command-and-staff exercise of the Russian Armed Forces Caucasus-2016 has started in the Southern Military District.
> 
> It aims to check the level of readiness of the military command bodies to control interservice groupings of forces; commanders and staffs will gain experience in planning, preparation and conducting of combat operations.The Caucasus-2016 is held on September 5-10 and will become the final training event in a series of exercises, trainings and unannounced inspections in 2016.
> The peculiarities of the Caucasus-2016 are: the organization of troops control at all levels, tactical episodes with simulated enemy on the other side of the barricade, testing of new military equipment in field conditions, organization of mobilization and territorial defence, wide usage of aviation and maritime forces of the Black Sea Fleet and the Caspian flotilla.
> 
> Within the strategic command-and-staff exercise, formations and units of the Land Forces, the Aerospace Forces, the Navy and the Airborne Troops will practice tactical episodes at the Southern MD ranges.
> 
> The Caucasus exercise is participated by about 12,500 servicemen, as well as aviation, military hardware and warships.












Finally, a map attached showing where the UKR General Staff say the RUS troops that aren't in the East are coming from (source).


----------



## The Bread Guy

NLD government probe:  it was a shoot-down by a missile fired from occupied UKR:


> ... Based on the above the JIT (Joint Investigation Team) concludes that flight MH17 was shot down on 17 July 2014 by a missile of the 9M38 series, launched by a BUK-TELAR, from farmland in the vicinity of Pervomaiskiy (or: Pervomaiskyi). At that time, the area was controlled by pro-Russian fighters. Furthermore, the investigation also shows that the BUK-TELAR was brought in from the territory of the Russian Federation and subsequently, after having shot down flight MH-17, was taken back to the Russian Federation ...


English-language report also attached in case link above doesn't work for you.

Russian state media response?  _*"MH17 int’l probe’s only sources are Ukrainian intel & internet - Russian MoD"*_

More from Google News here.

Let the pro-RUS doubt-mongering begin!!!!!!!


----------



## MilEME09

I find it funny Russia complained that the data came from the Ukraine, and western sources. However the investigation asked for Russian data and was told no.


----------



## McG

The plane started its flight in the west, so the physical evidence is biased.    
? rly: ?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Why Russia is Reviving Its Conventional Military Power

Bettina Renz

http://strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/parameters/issues/Summer_2016/6_Renz.pdf


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> I find it funny Russia complained that the data came from the Ukraine, and western sources. However the investigation asked for Russian data and was told no.


Yeah - funny that, indeed ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, this from Russian state media:


> *The militia command of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) has received information that the helicopter downed by the militia on Thursday, was carrying some instructors from NATO’s member states*, the DPR Operations Command Spokesman Eduard Basurin told journalists on Friday.
> 
> "There were several military instructors from NATO member states onboard during the combat flight," the Donetsk News Agency quoted Basurin as saying. According to the DPR sources, the helicopter landed on the outskirts of the Krasnogorovka settlement. Sources in the command elaborated that the area was locked down and mobile communication was turned off ...


Usual caveats re:  separatist and Russian state media often being ... creative ... with the truth -- no confirmation from NATO at this point.

A reminder:  Canada has some flight safety training folk in UKR as well.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Separatists allege Canadian "mercenaries" in Donbass fighting for UKR ...


> Reconnaissance units from the self-proclaimed Lugansk People's Republic have spotted the arrival of hundreds of foreign mercenaries on the contact line in eastern Ukraine, says LPR People's Militia Chief of Staff Oleg Anaschenko. The fighters are believed to come from countries including the US, Canada, the Baltic states and Poland.
> 
> _*"According to information received from human intelligence sources in settlements near the line of contact, several hundred mercenaries from the United States, Canada, the Baltic countries and Poland have arrived in the area, armed with small arms and equipment," Anaschenko said at a briefing, quoted by Russia's RIA Novosti news agency.* *_
> 
> According to LPR Militia, three camps have been created in the Ukrainian-controlled settlements of Bobrovskoye and Bobrovo, near Severodonetsk. There, foreign instructors are said to be training Ukrainian army personnel in reconnaissance, as well as urban combat.
> 
> "We have also recorded the presence of training camps in the village of Schastye [on the contact line] where American and Polish instructors teach sharpshooters and sabotage and reconnaissance groups for their further actions on the territory of the LPR," Anaschenko added.
> 
> The officer also said that the settlement of Polovinkino in Starobelsk district has seen the arrival of about 150 foreign mercenaries in off-road vehicles, BMPs and BTRs, armed with US-made assault rifles. According to LPR intelligence sources, foreign mercenaries armed with NATO-standard small arms have also been spotted in the village of Trehizbenka in the Slavyanoserbsk district ...


*** - If you can read Russian, you can check out the RIA Novosti article here.

More from the Lugansk separatist info-machine (mentioning Polish "mercenaries") here:


> Kiev reinforced its units in the so-called "counterterrorist operation zone" (CTOZ) with fighters from nationalistic volunteer squadrons and foreign mercenaries, a LPR People's Militia representative said.
> 
> Major Andrey Marochko speaking at a press conference in Lugansk Media Center told journalists that "the situation in LPR People's Militia area of responsibility remains tense" and reminded that Ukrainian forces shelled militia's positions overnight.
> 
> "Ukrainian Command keeps reinforcing its grouping in the so-called "CTO zone" with nationalistic volunteer squadrons. Units of Pravyi Sektor (Right Sector, a far-right Ukrainian nationalist political and paramilitary group of neofascist ideology) were reported to arrive to checkpoints in Popasnaya and Artyemovsk area, as well as Zakarpatskaya Sech and UPA squadrons. Ukrainian servicemen were quartered in houses of locals in Novozvanovka, the village from where LPR People's Militia positions have been shelled almost daily," Marochko explained.
> 
> "We also know that in Trekhizbenka area (Slavyanoserbskiy district) an unidentified unit is based. It differs from Ukrainian armed forces units and nationalistic squadrons with equipment of a higher quality. Some of the fighters are of African descent and speak English among themselves," he said.
> 
> Earlier Marochko said that Ukrainian Command sent a company of Polish mercenaries to Donbass to carry out sabotage acts. Due to the lack of servicemen in Ukrainian army a women unit was deployed to a checkpoint in Popasnaya area.


----------



## MilEME09

Even the Kremlin is not immune to hacking,

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/28/world/europe/ukraine-russia-emails.html



> Ukrainian Hackers Release Emails Tying Top Russian Official to Uprising
> 
> MOSCOW — A group of Ukrainian hackers has released what it says are the emails of a senior Kremlin official that show a direct Russian role in creating and directing the rebel uprising in eastern Ukraine in 2014.
> 
> The group claimed to have hacked the account of Vladislav Y. Surkov, for years President Vladimir V. Putin’s chief domestic political adviser and now the top official overseeing Russia’s Ukraine policy.
> 
> The group released what it says are thousands of letters to and from Mr. Surkov’s office email account, adding a fat dossier to this year’s vast spill of emails around the world and showing high-level Kremlin meddling in Ukraine.
> 
> While the authenticity of the documents has yet to be fully established, several of the people who corresponded with Mr. Surkov confirmed that the messages of theirs released by the hackers were the ones they sent.
> 
> In a telephone interview, Yevgeny A. Chichvarkin, a Russian entrepreneur living in exile in London, confirmed the authenticity of his emails to Mr. Surkov’s aides. “Yes, this is my original text,” he said.
> 
> The Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank, analyzed the emails and determined they were genuine, based partly on the routing information.
> 
> The Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, flatly denied that emails had been leaked, saying somebody “must have had to sweat quite a lot” to forge so many messages.
> 
> Mr. Peskov also said that Mr. Surkov does not use email. And, in fact, only aides to Mr. Surkov answered the correspondence, leaving the extent of his personal involvement unclear.
> 
> While Russia’s hand in Ukraine has hardly been a secret, the emails, if genuine, provide fine-grained detail of Mr. Surkov’s office in setting up separatist enclaves in Ukraine’s east.
> 
> They also shed light on the workaday activity of a propaganda shop, including a rare example of a draft text apparently edited in Mr. Surkov’s office that can be compared with a final version.
> The Ukrainian group, calling itself CyberHunta — a mocking reference to the Russian assessment that the Kiev government is a fascist junta — released 2,337 emails from the address prm_surkova@gov.ru, many from 2014 as the eastern Ukrainian separatists established their mini-states.
> 
> The correspondence included the spreadsheet of a budget to set up a small newspaper in Donetsk, the capital of the breakaway Donetsk People’s Republic.
> 
> One email alerted Mr. Surkov’s office to rebel casualties in June 2014 that included a paratrooper from Pskov, a town in northern Russia. At the time, there was considerable political sensitivity over the deaths of Russian soldiers in Ukraine.
> 
> In another letter, lists of candidates for separatist government positions arrived in Mr. Surkov’s inbox before their appointments.
> 
> Mr. Surkov, a former advertising executive, is widely seen as an architect of Mr. Putin’s domestic political framework and the post-Communist ideology of “sovereign democracy,” a term he coined. In 2013, he told an audience in London, “I am the author, or one of the authors, of the new Russian political system.”
> 
> Mr. Surkov apparently received in his email inbox a letter from a Moscow magazine editor with a draft of an “open letter from residents of the Donbas,” ostensibly written by local people in Donetsk to describe the horrors of war.
> 
> While it is unclear if Mr. Surkov edited it personally, the changes that appear in the published letter suggest a deft eye for trimming and sharpening a text.
> 
> “Ukrainian soldiers and Donbas militiamen are dying,” the original read. “Few of them want to risk their lives and kill, most realize this is a fratricidal war.”
> 
> The punchier “Ukrainian soldiers and Donbas militiamen are dying. Most realize this is a fratricidal war,” wound up in the final version.
> 
> In another edit, the original — “Our testimony in your eyes should be weightier than the assertions of specialized propagandists” — became the subtly improved, “Our testimony in your eyes outweighs the assertions of specialized propagandists.”
> 
> The Obama administration has accused the Kremlin of hacking into the computers of the Democratic National Committee and various Democratic officials and institutions in an effort to discredit the American political system. In recent weeks, there have been reports of high-level meetings at the White House to discuss ways to punish Moscow, including sanctions and covert action against Russian targets.


----------



## Lightguns

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Separatists allege Canadian "mercenaries" in Donbass fighting for UKR ...*** - If you can read Russian, you can check out the RIA Novosti article here.
> 
> More from the Lugansk separatist info-machine (mentioning Polish "mercenaries") here:



"Some of the fighters are of African descent and speak English among themselves" because black folks speaking Ukrainian is quite a regular thing to see?  I love propaganda, they try to fit in every trigger til it makes little sense.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Lightguns said:
			
		

> ... they try to fit in every trigger til it makes little sense.


Even just in the headlines (all they missed was "Nazi" in that one) ;D


----------



## The Bread Guy

Russia underwhelmed with newest UKR Defence Intelligence logo (attached) ...


> *Moscow outraged by new logo of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence*
> 
> The emblem depicts an owl aiming its sword at the Russian territory
> 
> Russia is indignant about the new emblem of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence of the Defense Ministry.
> 
> The picture shows an owl holding a sword which penetrates the territory of Russia. Around the picture, a motto reads in Latin "Sapiens dominabitur astris" which means "The wise will dominate stars".


----------



## Good2Golf

Poor Ivan.   :'(  Perhaps they would prefer an insignia with a UKR AD battery shooting down an Aeroflot airliner over the Donest?


----------



## The Bread Guy

A bit of longer reading, but worthwhile.  The latest (as of 27 Oct 2016) from the Congressional Research Service (42pg PDF @ link), with the summary attached.  This, on reading Russia's intent/goals, from the report:


> … Many experts on Russia have stated that Putin’s key objective in kraine has been and continues to be to weaken and discredit the pro-Western government in Kyiv and Western policy generally.  And, according to some, Moscow’s policy in Ukraine’s east continues  to look more likely to  strengthen the Donetsk and  Luhansk People’s Republics . For instance, according to the  International Crisis Group (ICG),  after showing little interest in building political institutions in  the DNR and LNR or enthusiasm for funding social policies, Moscow has been bankrolling pensions, social benefits, and salaries of local officials and the separatist military. Others have suggested that most of the daily activities in the two areas, including financing, taxation, and  electric power, are actually planned and administered by Russian ministries in Moscow, making  the two regions somewhat like Russian statelets. The ICG suggested that  these measures are  increasingly clear signs  that  Moscow has decided to transform th e crisis into a frozen conflict.
> 
> At best, the outcome would likely amount to a cease - fire in place, with Russia continuing to  control the Russia - Ukraine border, given the unlikelihood of an agreement between Kyiv and the  separatists on elections and decentralization. Such an outcome could still provide Moscow with leverage over Kyiv but might not afford the same opportunity to destabilize Ukraine as continuing the war.  The one unanswered question at the moment is how long would the leadership of the  DPR and LPR continue to adhere to Moscow’s  strict  line if little or no progress  is made with Kyiv.  Some believe the DPR, for instance, would like to become more independent of Moscow, at least exercising more control over the economic and business assets of the region.
> 
> On the other hand, some observers believe that Putin will eventually create the conditions for an  election and reintegration of the Donbas region into the country, not because he is prepared to  give up the region but because he could feel  such a move would  further  weaken European resolve  to continue the sanctions regime on Russia. Some Europeans have already suggested that sanctions could be incrementally lifted as parts of Minsk - 2 are implemented. Moscow also appears to believe that by reintegrating the Donbas and having pro-Russians elected to the Rada,  Moscow could gain even more leverage in Kyiv. Russia’s proxies could control a certain bloc of votes on key issues in the Rada, effectively blocking some reform progress and perpetuating political instability. This has raised some concern in Kyiv and has led some to suggest this could only become a politically divisive problem. 62 Such a move by Putin, although not likely, would also force Kyiv and the Rada to either honor democratically elected MPs from the Donbas and  offer them protection if they came to Kyiv  or  to  ignore the will of the people of Donbas and  refuse  to seat them in the Rada, potentially inviting criticism from the West.
> 
> On the other hand,  what has largely disappeared from official Russian rhetoric  for now  is the  concept of “Novorossiya” — that is, expanding the Russian - controlled area to include most of  eastern and southern Ukraine, perhaps linking Russian - controlled areas in southern Ukraine with Crimea. This goal may have seemed easily achievable to Putin in mid-2014 when he first used the term. Since then, however, Ukrainian military forces have become somewhat more capable, and it may appear to Putin that such an objective would now likely require a massive, and perhaps politically unacceptable, infusion of Russian military forces, with casualties to realize.  Nevertheless, given Putin’s past unpredictability, such a scenario cannot be ruled out …


----------



## The Bread Guy

Intriguing development with one of Ukraine's neighbours ...

_*"Ukraine ready to give ‘green corridor' for Russian troops to withdraw from Moldova"*_
_*"(Moldova's DefMin) Salaru: Ukraine is ready to give a "green corridor" for withdrawal of Russian troops from Moldova"*_
_*"Poltorak tells Salaru that Ukraine respects Moldovan desire to withdraw Russian military base from its territory"*_
Here's a reference map:





Hmmm ... Russian troops driving through Ukraine while Russia is supporting separatists in the East - what could possibly go wrong, right?


----------



## Altair

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Intriguing development with one of Ukraine's neighbours ...
> 
> _*"Ukraine ready to give ‘green corridor' for Russian troops to withdraw from Moldova"*_
> _*"(Moldova's DefMin) Salaru: Ukraine is ready to give a "green corridor" for withdrawal of Russian troops from Moldova"*_
> _*"Poltorak tells Salaru that Ukraine respects Moldovan desire to withdraw Russian military base from its territory"*_
> Here's a reference map:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hmmm ... Russian troops driving through Ukraine while Russia is supporting separatists in the East - what could possibly go wrong, right?


Let them fly over eastern Ukraine instead.

What could possibly go wrong?


----------



## Cdn Blackshirt

Putin's objective is to do everything possible to ensure a pro-Western Ukraine fails.  The reason being he knows if Ukraine turns into any kind of economic (or political) miracle, domestic support for how he wants to run Russia will disintegrate.

In reading about the reforms, it appears Putin's greatest hope is not the Russian-speaking east, but instead the kleptocrats that have embedded themselves in every level of the Ukrainian government.  

It's sad the next elections are not until 2019....


----------



## MilEME09

Exactly, Ukraines biggest battle in my opinion is not on the front line, it's in every government office, and institution. The war on corruption will make or break Ukraine, if they can get it under control then they have the chance to become a stable, booming democracy. On top of that it could help win the hearts and minds of the local populace of the east if they can say "Look we fixed our problems, our economy is growing, people are accountable"


----------



## The Bread Guy

Cdn Blackshirt said:
			
		

> ... Putin's greatest hope is not the Russian-speaking east, but instead the kleptocrats that have embedded themselves in every level of the Ukrainian government ...





			
				MilEME09 said:
			
		

> ... Ukraines biggest battle in my opinion is not on the front line, it's in every government office, and institution ...


 :nod:


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Intriguing development with one of Ukraine's neighbours ...
> 
> _*"Ukraine ready to give ‘green corridor' for Russian troops to withdraw from Moldova"*_
> _*"(Moldova's DefMin) Salaru: Ukraine is ready to give a "green corridor" for withdrawal of Russian troops from Moldova"*_
> _*"Poltorak tells Salaru that Ukraine respects Moldovan desire to withdraw Russian military base from its territory"*_
> ...


The plot thickens ...

_*"Transnistria opposes possible withdrawal of Russian troops"*_
_*"US-backed Ukraine and Moldova "withdrawal plan" threatens war in Transnistria"*_
_*"Russian MP calls speculations on withdrawal of peacekeepers from Transnistria provocative"*_
Ref map attached - a bit of recent Transnistrian back story (how it became a Russian statelet) here (usual Wikipedia caveats apply, but a decent overview) and here (shorter & sweeter BBC version).


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> The plot thickens ...
> 
> _*"Transnistria opposes possible withdrawal of Russian troops"*_
> _*"US-backed Ukraine and Moldova "withdrawal plan" threatens war in Transnistria"*_
> _*"Russian MP calls speculations on withdrawal of peacekeepers from Transnistria provocative"*_
> Ref map attached - a bit of recent Transnistrian back story (how it became a Russian statelet) here (usual Wikipedia caveats apply, but a decent overview) and here (shorter & sweeter BBC version).


Even shorter & sweeter headline from a separatist media outlet in eastern Ukraine:
_*"Russian Troops Will Not Leave Under Moldovan And Ukrainian Junta Commands, They Are Here To Stay ~ Transnistria President Shevchuk"*_


----------



## The Bread Guy

Separatist info-machine claims Canadian killed fighting for Ukrainians - original in Russian, and separatist version in English ...


> *Canadian mercenary of Kiev special task forces killed as Ukraine attacks DPR positions*
> December 05, 2016 15:23
> 
> Donetsk, Dec 5 – DAN. A Canadian mercenary enrolled in 73rd center for special operations of Ukrainian armed forces was killed as Kiev attempted to attack DPR positions on the south axis, DPR Operations Command deputy commander Eduard Basurin said speaking at a news briefing at Donetsk News Agency on Monday.
> 
> “A sabotage and reconnaissance squad was uncovered operating in the vicinity of Vodyanoye. The servicemen of 73rd center for special operations carried out an armed provocation in vicinity of our positions. As the result of the gunfight that followed Ukrainian troops pulled back to their initial positions, one enemy fighter was killed. According to our sources, a Canadian mercenary was killed,” Basurin said.
> 
> DPR intelligence routinely spots foreign mercenaries deployed by Kiev to Donbass frontline areas. On November 1st Ukrainian military command has accommodated mercenaries on the premises of an orphans health center in Svyatogorsk.


English/Russian reports also attached if you don't want to give UKR separatists any clicks online.


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Separatist info-machine claims Canadian killed fighting for Ukrainians - original in Russian, and separatist version in English ...


A spokesperson @ Global Affairs Canada says they haven't heard of any such death of a Canadian national in Ukraine - UKR's military info-machine hasn't responded.

Meanwhile, more Canadian mentions in the UKR separatist press - English version, Russian version (graphic from this one attached), and PDF of both @ non-separatist web site) ...


> *DPR Defense: foreign instructors and mercenaries of 4 countries spotted in Kiev’s territory*
> December 09, 2016 15:28
> 
> Donetsk, Dec 9 – DAN. DPR intelligence spotted military instructors and mercenaries from Canada, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia in Kiev-controlled territory, DPR Operations Command deputy commander Colonel Eduard Basurin told a news briefing at the Donetsk News Agency on Friday.
> 
> “I would like to point out the increased activity of foreign military instructors and mercenaries in Ukraine’s territory. Over the week we spotted military from Canada, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia.”
> 
> He showed journalists a Magnum Winchester cartridge of the kind that, Basurin said, is manufactured in NATO countries.
> 
> Supposedly the cartridge belonged to a Canadian citizen who arrived to Donbass for a ‘safari’. Earlier reports said a Canadian fighter had been killed in a clash with DPR militiamen in vicinity of Vodyanoye.
> 
> “Ukrainian gunmen organized a ‘safari’ in the ATO zone. Via social networks they call foreigners to join the hunt for separatists,” Basurin explained.


----------



## a_majoor

Russian cyber war extending into android devices:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-cyber-ukraine-idUSKBN14B0CU



> *Russian hackers tracked Ukrainian artillery units using Android implant: report*
> By Dustin Volz | WASHINGTON
> 
> A hacking group linked to the Russian government and high-profile cyber attacks against Democrats during the U.S. presidential election likely used a malware implant on Android devices to track and target Ukrainian artillery units from late 2014 through 2016, according to a new report released Thursday.
> 
> The malware was able to retrieve communications and some locational data from infected devices, intelligence that would have likely been used to strike against the artillery in support of pro-Russian separatists fighting in eastern Ukraine, the report from cyber security firm CrowdStrike found.
> 
> The findings are the latest to support a growing view among Western security officials and cyber security researchers that Russian President Vladimir Putin has increasingly relied on hacking to exert influence and attack geopolitical foes.
> 
> The hacking group, known commonly as Fancy Bear or APT 28, is believed by U.S. intelligence officials to work primarily on behalf of the GRU, Russia's military intelligence agency.
> 
> Both the CIA and FBI believe that Fancy Bear and other Russian hackers were responsible for hacks during the election that were intended to help President-elect Donald Trump defeat Hillary Clinton, according to two senior government officials.
> 
> Russia has repeatedly denied hacking accusations, and Trump has also dismissed the assessments of the U.S. intelligence community.
> 
> The malware used to track Ukrainian artillery units was a variant of the kind used to hack into the Democratic National Committee, CrowdStrike co-founder Dmitri Alperovitch said in an interview. That link, in addition to the high rate of losses sustained by the type of Ukrainian artillery units targeted by hackers, creates high confidence that Fancy Bear was responsible for the implant, he said.
> 
> "This cannot be a hands-off group or a bunch of criminals, they need to be in close communication with the Russian military," Alperovitch said.
> 
> The implant leveraged a legitimate Android application developed by a Ukrainian artillery officer to process targeting data more quickly, CrowdStrike said.
> 
> Its deployment "extends Russian cyber capabilities to the front lines of the battlefield", the report said, and "could have facilitated anticipatory awareness of Ukrainian artillery force troop movement, thus providing Russian forces with useful strategic planning information".
> 
> Downloads of the legitimate app were promoted on pages used by Ukrainian artillery on vKontakte, a Russian social media website, CrowdStrike said. There is no evidence the application was made available in the Android app store, limiting its distribution, the firm said.
> 
> The implant used on the legitimate app appears to be the first observed case of Fancy Bear malware used on the Android platform, according to the report.
> 
> (Reporting by Dustin Volz; Editing by Paul Tait)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Thucydides said:
			
		

> Russian cyber war extending into android devices:
> 
> http://www.reuters.com/article/us-cyber-ukraine-idUSKBN14B0CU


More, including a link to the CrowdStrike report itself (which is actually easy to read, even for non-technical types like myself) -- here.


----------



## Journeyman

While I believe the rough info of the various Russian cyber attacks, my inner 'doubting Thomas' would like to see more corroborating reports.  It _seems_  like all the reporting goes back to Crowdstrike and Dmitri Alperovitch.  It's very easy for limited sources to become circular reporting, since I've no doubt that the CIA and FBI are also using this open source info. 

It's a Missouri thing; kind of like hanging off every word of that Staples guy at the Rideau Institute.


----------



## MilEME09

This could be solved by, you know, not bringing your cell phones to a war zone? just sayin


----------



## PuckChaser

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> This could be solved by, you know, not bringing your cell phones to a war zone? just sayin



Insert complaints about how our radios don't work below...


----------



## The Bread Guy

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> Insert complaints about how our radios don't work below...


And in a country where they're still fundraising for the military, I wonder how useful the current fire-control computers are if this shareware was so popular?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Thucydides said:
			
		

> Russian cyber war extending into android devices:
> 
> http://www.reuters.com/article/us-cyber-ukraine-idUSKBN14B0CU


And -- surprise, surprise -- the UKR military denies it (interesting how it took a couple of weeks to deny - even if it is over the Xmas break, not to mention this week's Orthodox Christmas)...

_*"Def. Ministry comments on Russian hackers' 'attack' on AFU artillery"*_
_*"Defense ministry denies reports of alleged artillery losses because of Russian hackers' break into software"*_
_*"Information about the "loss of Armed Forces of Ukraine 80% howitzer D-30" is not true"*_ (UKR MoD, in Ukrainian) - Google English translation

Meanwhile, some OSINT tidbits ...

You can watch a posted five-minute YouTube video here of separatist troops training in eastern Ukraine (edited, polished separatist info-machine version).
You can watch a Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty video here talking about how civvy vehicles are being used to evac UKR tps from the front line because the mil ambulances are too beat up or not around.
Neither may give the ENTIRE story for different reasons, but it's interesting to see what's there -- and to think about what we _don't_ see/hear.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Russian media:

_*"Dutch journalists ordered to shut their mouths on MH17 disaster"*_ (Pravda)
_*"Dutch police have confiscated materials concerning the MH17 crash from two independent journalists returning form Donbass, one of the journalists, Stefan Beck, wrote on his Facebook page.  "All of the material collected by Michel Spekkers and me about the MH17 crash in Donbass (Lugansk and Donetsk) and other material, for example street interviews, has been confiscated by the police upon arrival to the Netherlands," he wrote ..."*_ (TASS)
_*"Two Dutch journalists proved it is not “too dangerous” to collect evidence at the MH17 crash site in eastern Ukraine when one visited the area, but Dutch police confiscated everything the reporters collected there, along with their cellphones and laptops ..."*_ (RT)

Ukraininan media:

_*"Police have detained Dutch journalist Michel Spekkers at Schipol airport in Amsterdam for attempting to smuggle pieces of the MH17 passenger plane [shot down over eastern Ukraine] into the Netherlands. Law-enforcement officials said parts of bodies from dead passengers aboard the plane could possibly be among them ..."*_ (Interfax-Ukraine)

Dutch Media:

_*"A journalist who brought back pieces of wreckage from a visit to the MH17 crash site in Ukraine has accused Dutch police who confiscated his camera and computer equipment of being needlessly heavy-handed. Michel Spekkers was interviewed by officers when he landed at Schiphol airport on Saturday. Police claimed he refused to hand over pieces of wreckage, including fragments of bone that could be human remains, that were in his luggage. They said Spekkers tried to smuggle the items into the country by getting a companion to carry his bag through customs ..."*_


----------



## The Bread Guy

On the lighter side, here's a link to a 2:08 YT video created by the separatist info-machine, showing how Ukraine tried to steal Christmas - unsuccessfully.  The info-machine's summary:


> ... The plot centers around a Ukraine’s military attempt to undermine New Year and Christmas festivities in the proud land of Donbass. The evil Kiev command dispatches the Big Bad Wolf to abduct gifts meant for DPR children, but the thief is intercepted by an elite paramilitary Bunny unit led by Ded Moroz (Father Christmas) himself.  As the junta’s agent is successfully neutralized, the freedom fighters distribute the gifts among the kids of the Republic ...


I personally love the bunny ears on top of the winter cam on the separatists  ;D


----------



## dapaterson

The Wall Street Journal is reporting more fighting in Eastern Ukraine.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/officials-say-at-least-seven-killed-in-fighting-in-eastern-ukraine-1485810561


----------



## The Bread Guy

dapaterson said:
			
		

> The Wall Street Journal is reporting more fighting in Eastern Ukraine.
> 
> https://www.wsj.com/articles/officials-say-at-least-seven-killed-in-fighting-in-eastern-ukraine-1485810561


Ya beat me to it  ;D  More via ...

_*Reuters*_ (UK wire service)
_*BBC*_
_*Euronews*_
_*Agence France-Presse*_ (French wire service)
_*112.ua*_ (UKR media)
_*Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty*_ (US gov't-run media)
_*"Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has tasked his aides with calling for the extraordinary session of the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine to discuss the situation near the town of Avdeevka, presidential administration deputy head Kostiantyn Yeliseyev said Monday ..."*_ (RIA Novosti - RUS state media)
_*"Ukrainian intel: About 60 Russian soldiers in Donetsk morgue after two-day fighting"*_ (UNIAN - UKR media)
_*"Pushilin: 'Ukraine does everything possible to resume full-scale hostilities' - TV Statement"*_ (Donbass News Agency - separatist "government" media)


----------



## The Bread Guy

And, according to RUS state media, it the Ukrainians' fault they want to take back their own land ...


> The latest escalation of violence in eastern Ukraine was caused by an attack from Ukrainian paramilitary units, the Kremlin said, citing its own data and rejecting accusations by Kiev, which said Russia is responsible for it.
> 
> Reports of intensified fighting between pro-Ukrainian forces and rebels along the disengagement line in eastern Ukraine came on Monday. According to Moscow’s data, the hostilities were provoked by Ukrainian paramilitary units, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday.
> 
> “[The paramilitary] tried to attack the territory controlled by the [self-proclaimed] republics of Donbass,” he told journalists. “Those units crossed the disengagement line with artillery fire support from the Ukrainian Army. The rebel militia was forced to fight back near the town of Avdeevka and take back the seized land.”
> 
> Peskov said that while the so-called “volunteer battalions” are not fully controlled by the government in Kiev, the support provided by regular Ukrainian troops indicates that Ukraine was willing to undermine the truce with the rebels under the Minsk agreement ...


... and an analyst's take from another RUS state-media outlet:


> ... Discussing the reasons of this latest escalation of the conflict in Donbass, the director of the Ukrainian Institute of CIS Studies Denis Denisov said that with Donald Trump now in the White house and clear signs of Ukraine’s western partners losing faith in Kiev, the Ukrainian leaders were “losing their nerve.”
> 
> “They know full well that within the next couple of months they are going to lose their key support in the world and that Poroshenko and his team will no longer be able to keep telling lies about what is really going on in Donbass,” Denisov told RT.
> 
> He explained the latest spike in the number of Ukrainian bombardments in Donbass by Kiev’s desire to provoke an adequate response from the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics and present this as an act of aggression against it.
> 
> “Kiev, and above all, members of the so-called ‘volunteer battalions’ realize that a month or two from now European and [US] representatives would no longer let them go on killing innocent  civilians in Donbass,” Denison noted ...


Latest UKR info-machine map attached.


----------



## The Bread Guy

A bit of summary/analysis over at the War is Boring blog on the latest UKR hot spot ...


> One of the most characteristically Russian methods of warfighting is the heavy use of artillery. In Syria, Russian artillery gave a boost to a Syrian army badly depleted by years of heavy fighting. In eastern Ukraine, combined Russian-separatist forces continue to exchange artillery fire with the Ukrainian army on a regular basis.
> 
> During the battles of Ilovaisk and Debaltseve, Russian and separatist artillery massacred cut-off Ukrainian troops in two of Kiev’s worst defeats in the war.
> 
> Over the weekend of Jan. 28, 2017, Russian-separatist artillery pounded Ukrainian troops in the worst fighting in months — “using all the might of their arsenal along all front lines,” the Ukrainian military stated according to the Financial Times.
> 
> Russian-backed separatists, however, claim they’re fighting back against a Ukrainian offensive. Indeed, there does appear to be a slow-motion Ukrainian offensive aimed at carving bits of separatist-controlled territory away, piece by piece, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Christopher Miller.
> 
> “Observers say the Ukrainians appear to be trying to create new facts on the ground, while officials and commanders insist they are fighting to stop the flow of contraband into separatist-controlled territories,” Miller wrote ...


... as well as a link to year-old study on "The Russian Way of War".


----------



## MilEME09

Slowly trying to chip away at the rebels would seem to be the best plan. Given corruption in the military russian/sepretists forces will know about any major offensive before it happens. Where as tell local commanders to exploit and sieze when possible you regain the element of surprise.

Sent from my LG-D852 using Tapatalk


----------



## The Bread Guy

Quick update w/two maps - first one's from the UKR MoD, second one is from southfront.org, a pro-RUS OSINT-sharing site.


----------



## MilEME09

Looks like a front wide offensive action, hot spots everywhere, I'd say this conflict just heated up again. From a stretegic view, without knowing what assets are on the ground I see at least two opportunities for Ukrainian forces to go after bulges in the line. Sounds like the brunt of the fighting is on Avdiivka, the site of the major cross roads in the area, control of it to the rebels would be a major victory for the rebels. Government forces need a victory here, they have been constantly on the defensive and very much loosing most battles. hopefully new equipment and western training Ukrainian troops have been receiving can help.


----------



## The Bread Guy

A bit of the latest ..

Pro-Ukrainian and pro-separatist sources say things are calming down at least a bit around Avdiivka - latest UKR info-machine map attached
And something for you if you're one of the few who still believe the Russians have noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooothing going on in eastern Ukraine:  _*"Russia gave written ceasefire guarantees, repair works should continue"*_
Separatists are mourning what looks like the car-bomb killing of one of their "senior militia" leaders - more from the OSCE on this one
Poroshenko & Trump chat (nothing on whitehouse.gov on the call as of this post) -- with a range of "what happens next" media coverage (including a potential Trump visit to UKR down the road)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some of the latest on the latest from the International Crisis Group - *highlights* mine:


> Renewed fighting in eastern Ukraine in the first weeks of U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has laid bare fears in Europe's East about Russia’s declared intent to restore its former dominance in the region – and about whether or not the U.S. will continue to provide a counterweight to Moscow’s assertiveness.
> 
> (...)
> 
> Kyiv’s positions are bound to get more entrenched if U.S. support weakens. *If the U.S. were to lift sanctions on Moscow relating to its actions since 2014 in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, some in Kyiv have informally told Crisis Group that Ukraine’s only choice may be to escalate. *
> 
> (...)


I'm as big a fan boy of the underdog as the next guy, but if UKR _could_ have won by now, methinks they _would_ have.

No pun intended, but watch & shoot, I guess ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> ... Separatists are mourning what looks like the car-bomb killing of one of their "senior militia" leaders - more from the OSCE on this one ...


Not a good week to be a separatist leader in eastern Ukraine, it appears ...

_*" Ukraine conflict: Rebel leader Givi dies in bomb attack"*_ (BBC)
_*" Key Ukraine rebel commander killed in 'act of terror' "*_ (French wire service)
_*" DPR battalion commander Mikhail Tolstykh aka Givi blown up in his office in Donetsk"*_ (UKR media)
_*" A separatist commander in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk has been assassinated, the Russia-backed separatists say.  Mikhail Tolstykh, better known by his nom de guerre Givi, died after a bomb exploded in his office in the separatist stronghold of Donetsk just after 6 a.m. local time on February 8, de facto separatist authorities and a source with ties to its military told RFE/RL by phone …"*_ (U.S.-government funded media)
_*" Commander of Somali unit of DPR armed forces Colonel Mikhail Tolstykh (call sign Givi) was killed in Donetsk in an explosion of a round of man-portable rocket launcher-flamethrower Shmel, according to preliminary information of DPR Operations Command …"*_ (Separatist media) -- more on RPO-A Shmel thermobaric rocket launcher here
_*" Ukraine's SBU still not confirming Givi's death"*_ (UKR media)
THAT was quick ... _*" Kremlin denies any Russian involvement in murder of Donbass militia commander"*_ (RUS state media)

And, as a bit of back story, here's what the International Crisis Group had to say in March of last year about separatist infighting in Ukraine.


----------



## The Bread Guy

I'm sensing a bit of a recurring theme in some stories coming out of separatist/pro-RUS media over the past couple of weeks ...

_*"Kiev prepares attack on Donbass, using acts of terror – Russian senator"*_
_*"Ukrainian Armed Forces Plan to Cut Across Seversky Donets River in Donbass"*_
_*"(UKR security services) Using Replica OSCE, Emergency Services Uniforms & Vehicles for Sabotage"*_ – source article in Russian
_*"A Ukrainian citizen was preparing a terrorist attack in Rostov-on-Don, informed the State Duma’s Deputy Sergei Zheleznyak this day ..."*_


----------



## The Bread Guy

The latest "tactical wordsmithing" out of Kiev, via UKR media ...

_*"Ukraine troops in Donbas on forced defensive – Poroshenko* -- Moscow is trying to share with Kyiv its responsibility for the escalation in Donbas; however, the Ukrainian army in Avdiyivka are on forced defensive, which is confirmed by NATO satellite imagery and intercepted communication of the militants, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said Friday during his working trip to Ivano-Frankivsk region ..."_
_*"Ukrainian military improve positions "on approaches" to Donetsk* -- Ukrainian troops have "counterattacked in Avdiyivka" and improved their positions on the approaches to Donetsk, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said.  "They attacked us because they wanted to push Ukrainian troops out of the Avdiyivka industrial zone... During clashes in the Avdiyivka area Russian troops used all kinds of artillery, multiple rocket launchers, mortars, tanks, other types of weapons strictly prohibited by the Minsk agreements," Poroshenko said during a trip to Ivano-Frankivsk on Friday.  "Moreover, as a result of the enemy attack, our military, our heroes counterattacked and improved our positions on the site that has become key on the approaches to the occupied Donetsk," Poroshenko said ..."_


----------



## Good2Golf

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> The latest "tactical wordsmithing" out of Kiev, via UKR media ...
> 
> _*"Ukraine troops in Donbas on forced defensive – Poroshenko* -- Moscow is trying to share with Kyiv its responsibility for the escalation in Donbas; however, the Ukrainian army in Avdiyivka are on forced defensive, which is confirmed by NATO satellite imagery and intercepted communication of the militants, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said Friday during his working trip to Ivano-Frankivsk region ..."_
> _*"Ukrainian military improve positions "on approaches" to Donetsk* -- Ukrainian troops have "counterattacked in Avdiyivka" and improved their positions on the approaches to Donetsk, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said.  "They attacked us because they wanted to push Ukrainian troops out of the Avdiyivka industrial zone... During clashes in the Avdiyivka area Russian troops used all kinds of artillery, multiple rocket launchers, mortars, tanks, other types of weapons strictly prohibited by the Minsk agreements," Poroshenko said during a trip to Ivano-Frankivsk on Friday.  "Moreover, as a result of the enemy attack, our military, our heroes counterattacked and improved our positions on the site that has become key on the approaches to the occupied Donetsk," Poroshenko said ..."_



I'm still trying to work my head around a quarter of JTF 2 being killed in the Donbas, from one of those links I followed from your previous post...  :stars:


----------



## MilEME09

Good2Golf said:
			
		

> I'm still trying to work my head around a quarter of JTF 2 being killed in the Donbas, from one of those links I followed from your previous post...  :stars:



oh DPR info machine, you so funny. I mean if they wanna fight JTF-2, I'm sure we could oblige them, but it would be a different ending


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> oh DPR info machine, you so funny. I mean if they wanna fight JTF-2, I'm sure we could oblige them, but it would be a different ending


Separatist firing alright, separatist -- stops!

Meanwhile, this is pretty clear if this is what was said (misnaming PM's notwithstanding) ...


> U.S. President Donald Trump made it clear he expects Russia to return Crimea to Ukraine and reduce violence in Ukraine, White House spokesman Sean Spicer said on Tuesday.
> 
> *"President Trump has made it very clear that he expects the Russian government to de-escalate violence in the Ukraine and return Crimea,"* Spicer said at a daily news briefing. "At the same time, he fully expects to and wants to get along with Russia." ...


Even RUS media spotted that  ;D


> US President Donald Trump has been tough on Russia and expects Moscow to “return” the Crimea peninsula to Ukraine, the White House spokesman told reporters.
> 
> Addressing the resignation of National Security Adviser Michael Flynn – hounded by the media over his contacts with Russian diplomats prior to Trump’s inauguration – Spicer pointed out that Russia “seized” Crimea under the Obama administration and that the Trump-appointed ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley has “strongly denounced the Russian occupation.”
> 
> "President Trump has made it very clear that he expects the Russian government to de-escalate violence in the Ukraine and return Crimea," Spicer said at the daily news briefing on Tuesday. “At the same time, he fully expects to – and wants to – get along with Russia."
> 
> “Crimea is a part of Ukraine. Our Crimea-related sanctions will remain in place until Russia returns control of the peninsula to Ukraine,” Haley said at the UN Security Council meeting on February 2.
> 
> Russian envoy Vitaly Churkin responded by citing the US Constitution and pointing out that Crimeans overwhelmingly voted to join Russia, after the US-backed coup in February 2014 overthrew the elected government in Kiev.
> 
> It is in the national and economic interest of the US to have a good relationship with Russia, Spicer explained, but said that Haley “speaks for the president” on the matter of Crimea ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Remembering Ukraine's war dead from Afghanistan:


> *Congratulation by Prime Minister of Ukraine on the occasion of the Day Honoring Combatants in the Territory of Other States*
> 15.02.2017 | 09:00
> INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION DEPARTMENT OF THE SECRETARIAT OF THE CMU***
> 
> Each year on February 15, Ukraine marks the Day of Honoring Combatants in the Territory of Other States and the withdrawal of troops from the Republic of Afghanistan.
> 
> 28 years ago there ended a decade of war that is still the stinging pain in the hearts of Ukrainian families these days, the war in which against their will were participating about 160 thousand compatriots, and 12 thousand were maimed.
> 
> Ukraine remembers its heroes, those 3380 Ukrainians, who did not return to their homes, leaving the eternal sorrow to their families. Immortal heroism of thousands of Ukrainians will forever remain in history, the heroism demonstrated while performing their military duty.
> 
> Today in the East of Ukraine the fire of war is ablaze. Many of You stood to defend sovereignty and territorial integrity of our State, showing the examples of heroism and selfless service to the Ukrainian people. We are grateful to You for your active participation in the development of the state, public life, patriotic upbringing of the younger generation, which You are protecting and with whom you are sharing invaluable experience.
> 
> It is traditional that together with this event we honor all the combatants in the territories of other States, who worthily performed and continue to perform their professional duties and to protect humanity.
> 
> I wish You good health, peace, personal and family well-being, inspiration and strength!
> 
> Your Motherland is proud of You!
> 
> 
> Sincerely,
> Prime Minister of Ukraine                                             Volodymyr GROYSMAN


*** - UKR's national cabinet office


----------



## The Bread Guy

And on that report that Trump wants Russia to give Crimea back?


> Chairman of Russia's Federation Council Committee on Defense and Security Viktor Ozerov has commented on U.S. President Donald Trump's statement on the return of Crimea to Ukraine, claiming it is as unrealizable as the return of U.S.-held Alaska to Russia, according to the Ukrainian news outlet Novoye Vremia ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Highlights mine ...


> Ukraine has declared a state of emergency for its energy sector that could lead to rolling blackouts as officials try to dramatically reduce electricity consumption across the country.
> 
> The February 15 decision was made at a cabinet meeting in Kyiv focusing on *how to respond to a two-week strike by far-right protesters who have blocked a rail line between coal-producing eastern regions and the rest of Ukraine.*
> 
> Energy Minister Ihor Nasalyk called on all residents and industries to immediately try to save electricity.
> 
> He warned that conservation efforts may not be enough, saying the government "will implement rolling blackouts" if the energy savings are insufficient.
> 
> To fuel the country's power plants, *Kyiv continues to buy a specific type of coal produced only in eastern regions controlled by Russia-backed separatists.*
> 
> The exchange of goods has gone on despite a 34-month conflict in the east between separatists and Ukrainian government forces that has killed more than 9,750 people.
> 
> Protesters say Kyiv shouldn't be trading with the separatists.


On that bit in orange:  not if they want to _win_, anyway ...


----------



## MilEME09

A good article that sums up some of the reforms in Ukraine



> *Ukraine is making progress against tough odds. It deserves US support.*
> 
> Building a democracy isn’t easy, even in the best of circumstances. As a diplomat for over 40 years, I have seen firsthand how difficult it has been for the countries of Central and Eastern Europe to overcome the legacy of Soviet authoritarianism, root out corruption, and establish free societies and market economies based on the rule of law.
> 
> No country in this region has faced more formidable challenges than Ukraine.
> 
> In the 25 years after achieving independence in 1991, Ukraine squandered many opportunities for reform, disappointing the aspirations of its people for a European future based on justice, prosperity and accountable leaders and institutions. When former President Viktor Yanukovych, yielding to Russian pressure, suspended Ukraine's negotiations on partnership with the European Union in late 2013, the Ukrainian people made it clear that they had had enough.
> 
> Their frustration led to the Revolution of Dignity on Kyiv's Maidan square, Yanukovych's flight to Russia and, a few months later, the election of new, reformist leaders led by current President Petro Poroshenko.
> 
> Since that time, however, Ukraine has had to continue the reform process with a gun to its head, both literally and figuratively.
> 
> It has not been easy for Ukraine to start a reform process from the ground up, especially while it has been fighting to protect its freedom and independence from Russian aggression.
> 
> Russia has worked to undermine Ukraine through its illegal annexation of Crimea and sponsorship of an armed insurgency in Eastern Ukraine, coupled with economic intimidation and misinformation campaigns. Russia's actions are designed to portray Ukraine as a failed state that doesn't deserve support from the larger international community.
> 
> 
> 
> Yet, remarkably, Ukraine has persevered and is on the right track. Ukraine has embarked on a wide-ranging anti-corruption campaign to dismantle the institutional roadblocks that have thwarted reform in the past. With a focus on law enforcement, the civil service, public procurement and the energy sector, more institutions have been reformed in the last two years then in the preceding 23.
> 
> Addressing one of the most troublesome aspects of its own government, a new Ukraine National Police was formed in an effort to completely restructure an institution previously known for its corruption. The new police force has been launched in 32 cities thus far, and includes over 12,000 new officers.
> 
> Coupled with legal reforms, Ukraine has established new professional and ethical requirements, requiring evaluations of the performance of judges and consistent and secure handling of judicial files. Ukraine has also established several new institutions designed to investigate cases of corruption.
> 
> And to ensure its National Anti-Corruption Bureau, National Anti-Corruption Policy Council and National Agency for Prevention of Corruption serve the public interest, the country has conducted an open hiring process meant to give priority to true reformers.
> 
> Ukraine has also worked to hold its own politicians accountable to their constituents by instituting a mandatory online assets declaration. Officials from Poroshenko and Prime Minister Volodymyr Hroysman down to lower-level civil servants are now required to publicly declare and describe all assets they possess inside and outside of the country, as well as assets officially registered in the name of relatives. Attempts to conceal finances over the equivalent of $14,000 carry criminal liability.
> 
> The country has also cut its bloated civil servant corps, reducing its ranks by 16 percent, which in turn has increased efficiency, curbed graft and reined in government procurement, saving the country $1.2 billion to date.
> 
> Equally important as government reforms is Ukraine's effort to strengthen its economy through energy independence. By establishing an independent regulator, Ukraine has adjusted its utility rates to market levels, and slashed energy subsidies by 10 percent of its gross domestic product.
> 
> Not only has this saved the country billions and closed loopholes previously used for corruption; it has also ended Ukraine's energy dependence on Russia.
> 
> While collectively, these reforms have brought a much higher level of transparency and scrutiny to the country, democracy in Ukraine is still a work in progress, with more still to accomplish. Decentralization of power to the regions must still be carried out, and inter-institutional scuffles and remnants of the old guard must still be overcome.
> 
> But with continued encouragement and engagement by the international community, Ukraine can succeed.
> 
> It is of paramount importance that Ukraine be given the support it needs to foster democracy and overcome its post-Soviet legacy. The United States has been a leader in this regard, thanks to strong bipartisan support for Ukraine within Congress. Ukraine deserves continued political, economic and military support, including the possibility of lethal military assistance should Russia and its separatist proxies continue their aggression in Eastern Ukraine — a conflict that has claimed the lives of 10,000 Ukrainian citizens.
> 
> A sovereign, democratic Ukraine finds itself undermined at every turn by a provocative Russian neighbor desperate to see it fail, yet Ukraine is moving forward against all odds.
> 
> The Ukrainian people know firsthand how hard it is to build a democracy. They deserve our reassurance they are not in this alone.
> 
> Alexander Vershbow is a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council's Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security and an adviser to Rasmussen Global. He was NATO deputy secretary general from 2012 to 2016, and previously assistant secretary of Defense and U.S. ambassador to NATO, Russia and South Korea.


http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/international/319863-ukraine-is-making-progress-against-tough-odds-it-deserves-us


slashing the energy dependence on russia, and saving billions from efficiency and anti-corruption measures, that said Ukraine did just declare a state of emergency due to energy consumption, and word that coal is being important from eastern Ukraine. Protestors are now blocking rail lines used to transport that coal and calling it criminal that the government is buying coal from the separatist regions.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> slashing the energy dependence on russia, and saving billions from efficiency and anti-corruption measures, that said Ukraine did just declare a state of emergency due to energy consumption, and word that coal is being important from eastern Ukraine. Protestors are now blocking rail lines used to transport that coal and calling it criminal that the government is buying coal from the separatist regions.


And when the President says *"Participants of “blockade” in the east (keeping coal from separatist areas out of western Ukraine) first of all cause damage to the state,"* you know it's a ... complex situation.


----------



## The Bread Guy

More of the latest ...

_*Separatists seem all for the blockade preventing coal from getting into the rest of Ukraine.*_
How nice ... _*"LPR and DPR prepare humanitarian aid program for Kiev-occupied Donbass territories* —  The Heads of the DPR and LPR Igor Plotnitsky and Alexander Zakharchenko have developed a program for rendering humanitarian assistance to residents of Donbass Areas temporary occupied by Kiev*** ... "_
_*These OSINT curators seem to have identified a Russian mil-int guy who helped the missile carrier that shot down MH-17 get away.*_

*** - That may be a bit of a dig at how UKR refers to Crimea & occupied areas as "temporarily occupied."


----------



## The Bread Guy

A few tidbits ...

Eastern UKR separatists:  we're good to go to take ground from Ukrainian forces.
Russia:  _"... "Of course, such statements are not in line with the Minsk agreements," Russian Presidential Spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told reporters on Friday. "On the other hand, unfortunately, this could be the emotional background, which accompanies the tensions we can see along the separation line and which emerged after the aggressive actions by the Ukrainian armed forces and individual units."..."_
UKR separatists:  By the way, if Ukraine won't give you an amnesty for what you've done during the war, we'll be happy to oblige you (links to statement in Russian).


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> ... How nice ... _*"LPR and DPR prepare humanitarian aid program for Kiev-occupied Donbass territories* —  The Heads of the DPR and LPR Igor Plotnitsky and Alexander Zakharchenko have developed a program for rendering humanitarian assistance to residents of Donbass Areas temporary occupied by Kiev*** ... "_ ...


More offers of help from the separatists to Ukrainian-held areas ...

_*"30 DPR, LPR institutions to provide free education for residents of Kiev-occupied part of Donbass"*_
_*"DPR, LPR to provide free medical services to patients from Kiev-controlled Donbass areas"*_


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> And when the President says *"Participants of “blockade” in the east (keeping coal from separatist areas out of western Ukraine) first of all cause damage to the state,"* you know it's a ... complex situation.


More on the complexity that is the "UKR has to buy coal (and iron ore) from occupied areas to survive, but there's a blockade right now" story ...

UKR's top cop/interior minister:  time to break up that blockade, folks.
Separatists:  Don't want to lift the blockade?  Then we nationalize _"introduce external management at"_ UKR businesses on our side of the line.
Russia:  whazzup with this blockade continuing?
A short think-tank (Jamestown Foundation) summary on the forces at play in the "coal/iron ore from occupied areas" fracas here.


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> More offers of help from the separatists to Ukrainian-held areas ...
> 
> _*"30 DPR, LPR institutions to provide free education for residents of Kiev-occupied part of Donbass"*_
> _*"DPR, LPR to provide free medical services to patients from Kiev-controlled Donbass areas"*_


Rejigging the narrative further, this from separatist media:
_*"United Donbass Foundation, An Organization To Help Our Compatriots Living In The Occupied Part Of Donbass, “You Are Not Forgotten” "*_

Also, more of those pesky foreign (including Canadian) mercenaries mentioned in Russian army media (screen capture of photo of alleged mercs attached) -- one translation (pro-RUS source) here ...


> Several hundreds of foreign mercenaries arrived to the contact line in Donbass, stated the official representative of People's militia of the self-proclaimed Lugansk People's Republic (LPR) Andrey Marochko to journalists at a briefing.
> 
> _"According to available information, several hundred mercenaries from Canada, the Baltics, Poland, and Georgia arrived at the settlements located near the contact line, armed with small arms and light armored vehicles" reported the representative of the People's militia._
> 
> According to him, field camps were placed in various settlements where foreign military instructors train fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. They are armed with small arms corresponding to those used by NATO.  Marochko specified that the mercenaries train snipers, and carry out training for sweeping in urban conditions, and also train sabotage groups, which are planned to subsequently be sent to Donbass.


... with a Google Translate version of the Russian mil article here:


> *LNR has declared arrival of hundreds foreign mercenaries to a contact line in Donbass*
> 
> Several hundred foreign mercenaries arrived to the contact line in the Donbass, an official representative of the People's Militia of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) Andrei Marochko told reporters at a briefing.
> 
> "According to available information, several hundred mercenaries from Canada, the Baltic states, Poland and Georgia, armed with small arms and lightly armored vehicles, arrived in the settlements near the line of contact, " the representative of the People's Militia said.
> 
> According to him, field camps are located in various localities, where foreign military instructors train fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. They are armed with small arms that match the NATO models.
> 
> Marochko said that the mercenaries are training snipers, are trained in sweep operations in urban conditions, and also train sabotage groups, which are later planned to be sent to the Donbass.


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Rejigging the narrative further, this from separatist media:
> _*"United Donbass Foundation, An Organization To Help Our Compatriots Living In The Occupied Part Of Donbass, “You Are Not Forgotten” "*_



More from the separatists on their _"come on over, Ukrainians - we have money/aid/education/health care for you if Kiev's not giving it to you"_ plan:

_"The centres of social assistance and administrative services located in the territory of the DPR in the areas of checkpoints, within the framework of the humanitarian programme for the reunification of the Donbass people, will begin their work from April 1 ..."_
_"Residents of Kiev-held areas entitled to medical aid in 7 fields, including chemotherapy"_
UKR veterans*** can reportedly get 10,000 rubles (~CDN $230)**** @ the nearest Donbass post office, with all this aid "not at Republic's citizen's (sic.) expense." *****  (separatist newscast video, in Russian).

Meanwhile, riots break out in UKR over police arresting protesters trying to block the UKR government's purchase of coal et. al. from Donbass/Novorossia/occupied territories/liberated zones ...

_"Protests sweep across Ukraine over Kryvy Torets trade blockade dispersal"_
_"Ukrainian Lawmakers Criticize Arrests Of Activists Blockading Trade With East"_
_"Forty-five participants in a trade blockade with occupied areas in Donbas who were detained near the Kryvy Torets railway station on Monday have been released, the National Police's main department in Donetsk region has said ..."_

*** - I wonder if this includes UKR veterans of the current fight?
**** - This compares with an average UKR pension payment of US $70-85 (~CDN $100-115) a month (source, source).
***** - I'm *guessing* they can only spend it on the separatist side.


----------



## The Bread Guy

As we get closer to the anniversary of Russia annexing/invading/getting back Crimea, a reminder of the narrative progression ... (source)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Canada's take on the Crimea anniversary ...


> The Honourable Chrystia Freeland, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today issued the following statement:
> 
> “Today we mark three years since Russia’s illegal annexation and invasion of Crimea. We condemn unreservedly this violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
> 
> “Since the occupation of Crimea, there has been a severe suppression of human rights, including freedom of expression and association.
> 
> “Canada is deeply troubled by the politically motivated application of ‘anti-terrorist’ and ‘anti-extremist’ legislation; ongoing harassment of human rights activists, journalists and lawyers; arbitrary detentions; disappearances; and the persecution of Crimean Tatars and other minorities. We denounce the banning of the Mejlis, the self-governing body of the Crimean Tatars, and have called on Russia to reverse this illegal and immoral decision.
> 
> “It is shameful that Russia impedes access to Crimea for international human rights groups, including the Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine. The importance of this access was endorsed on December 19, 2016, in a UN General Assembly resolution co-sponsored by Canada.
> 
> “Canada is steadfast in its support for the people of Ukraine. Together, the international community must maintain its pressure, including through economic sanctions, until Russia respects international law and Ukraine’s sovereignty.”


----------



## The Bread Guy

In the words of @DarthPutinKGB, _"Do not believe anything until the Kremlin denies it™"_ ...

_*" "Donbass will enter Russia soon," DPR Head Zakharchenko in the Crimea"*_ (UKR separatist media)
_*"Russia-Donbass Integration Committee opens doors in Crimea"*_ (pro-RUS media)
_*"The participants of the constituent meeting taking place in Livadia Palace, Crimea, have unanimously supported the establishing of Integration Committee Russia-Donbass, as it was proposed by Russian MP Andrey Kozenko ..."*_ (UKR separatist info machine)
_*"Kremlin not considering scenarios of DPR, LPR integration into Russia - Peskov"*_ (UKR media)


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> In the words of @DarthPutinKGB, _"Do not believe anything until the Kremlin denies it™"_ ...
> 
> _*" "Donbass will enter Russia soon," DPR Head Zakharchenko in the Crimea"*_ (UKR separatist media)
> _*"Russia-Donbass Integration Committee opens doors in Crimea"*_ (pro-RUS media)
> _*"The participants of the constituent meeting taking place in Livadia Palace, Crimea, have unanimously supported the establishing of Integration Committee Russia-Donbass, as it was proposed by Russian MP Andrey Kozenko ..."*_ (UKR separatist info machine)
> _*"Kremlin not considering scenarios of DPR, LPR integration into Russia - Peskov"*_ (UKR media)


Aaaaaaaaand it appears the separatist info-machine's narrative has been ... further refined ...

_*“No Plans to Hold Referendum on LPR Joining Russia in Near Future – Head* — The head of the self-proclaimed Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR), Igor Plotnitsky, said that a referendum in LPR on joining Russia would be done “in proper time.”…”_ (RUS state media)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Huge ammo depot explosion in eastern Ukraine near Kharkiv, leading to evacuations and what appears to be a fair bit of UXO lying about -- UKR President says NATO's Euro-Atlantic Disaster Response Coordination Centre (EADRCC) is helping out.


----------



## Kirkhill

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Aaaaaaaaand it appears the separatist info-machine's narrative has been ... further refined ...
> 
> _*“No Plans to Hold Referendum on LPR Joining Russia in Near Future – Head* — The head of the self-proclaimed Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR), Igor Plotnitsky, said that a referendum in LPR on joining Russia would be done “in proper time.”…”_ (RUS state media)



Referenda?  We don't need no stinking referenda! Because 2017.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Ukrainian and Russian media outlets say ANOTHER ceasefire's coming 1 April (no irony there) ...

op:


----------



## MilEME09

Perfect timing for another false cease-fire

Sent from my LG-D852 using Tapatalk


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> Perfect timing for another false cease-fire


Yup - Ukrainians and separatists agree it's "back to your regularly-scheduled" insurrection ...

Meanwhile, the separatist info-machine has posted a short video highlighting a "mobilization assembly", with bus loads o' folks collecting in a field somewhere to prepare against "a perfidious attack on Donbass" - enjoy!


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR Chief of the General Staff:  We DID have a plan to take secure Crimea, but ... - shared under the Fair Dealings section of _the Copyright Act._


> _*Gen. Staff planned operation against "little green men" during Crimea seizure *_
> 
> At the beginning of the Russian occupation of Crimea, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces planned an operation that could drastically change the course of events, former deputy head, now Chief of the General Staff Viktor Muzhenko said in an interview with Ukrainian online newspaper Ukrainska Pravda.
> 
> "On March 1, 2014, together with Deputy Chief of the Main Operations Directorate, General Viktor Nazarov, we proposed an option to respond to the developments in Crimea. Then I submitted for the Chief of the General Staff (Mykhailo Kutsyn) a number of orders regarding our actions," he told UP.***
> 
> The plan was to conduct an amphibious operation: landing on the peninsula and seizing airfields across Crimea, strengthening our groupings there and carrying out certain actions that would prevent the Russian military from advancing in the relevant areas.
> 
> We planned to capture the narrow isthmus between Crimea and the Kerch peninsula with the use of the 95th Brigade units.
> 
> It was supposed to strengthen these groupings with the 1st Marine Battalion, which was stationed in Feodosia, and to deploy the 501st Battalion, which was stationed in Kerch. The units of the 95th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade had to be transferred by air to the Kirovsky airfield.
> 
> "We also deploy military hardware. The hardware of the 95th Brigade had to be deployed through the Arabat Split and get to the Feodosia outskirts," he said.
> 
> According to Muzhenko, the Russians were building up their forces from Sevastopol to Kerch. By that time, part of the units of our 36th coastal defense brigade had already reached the Angarskyi training range near Simferopol. We planned to transfer two battalions there: a tank mechanized battalion was to block the direction along the Sevastopol-Simferopol motorway, while a mountain infantry battalion was to block the Yalta-Simferopol highway on the Angarskyi Pass.
> 
> "Thus, we would have completely blocked access of Russian units to the steppe part of Crimea, It was a chance, we thought. Because all military facilities on the south coast were already blocked by the Russian forces," he said.
> 
> He recalled that on the same day, in the evening of March 1, a meeting of the National Security and Defense Council was held, which was attended by Chief of the General Staff and Acting Minister of Defense.
> 
> "And we were preparing the implementation of our plan at the premises of the Main Operations Department. The Commander of the Air Force had already received an appropriate order to provide air transfers and air force support," he said.
> 
> According to him, Chief of the General Staff and Acting Minister of Defense returned from the meeting late in the evening.
> 
> "The then first deputy chief of the General Staff, Colonel-General Vorobiov took me and a few more generals into the waiting room near his office and said: "Everyone halt everything!" I said: "How can it be "halted" if we aircraft are in the air heading to the airfields to pick up the assault forces?"
> 
> He asked: "On what orders are these actions being carried out?" I said: "Based on the order I had the Chief of the General Staff sign," Muzhenko said.
> 
> "I went to the chief of the General Staff and asked: “The operation has begun, the planes are in the air, the assault forces are at the airfields. What's next? "He asked: "What's going on?" I answered: "What do you mean?! The relevant actions are underway based on your orders." He said: "I did not sign such orders..." Muzhenko said.
> 
> "These orders signed by the Chief of the General Staff, General Mykhailo Kutsyn, are still out there – they are stored in a “to secret” folder... Why did it happen? I have no idea. Perhaps, the corresponding decision was taken at a meeting of the National Security and Defense Council. If there is no political decision, the military don’t take such decisions," he said.
> 
> "If we fulfilled that what we had planned, we had a chance to retain control over the steppe part of Crimea. This would not have made it possible to hold a "referendum," as they call it. But it's very difficult to predict how the events would have developed further... But there was a chance... The next day, Russia deployed to Crimea some eight or nine Il-76 military cargo aircraft and up to 12 helicopters," Muzhenko added.
> 
> In turn, the then head of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, Acting President Oleksandr Turchynov**** responded to the question whether the proposal for such an operation had been voiced and why it had been canceled: "I did not receive from the General Staff any separate proposals on the steppe and mountainous parts of Crimea, or any other operations on the peninsula. All official proposals of military leadership on the use of troops go through a classified paper flow, so any statements can always be verified."


*** - Original source article in Ukrainian.
**** - Currently the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council.


----------



## The Bread Guy

OSCE monitor team member killed in mine blast in occupied zone ...


> A paramedic who was part of a patrol of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM) died and two SMM monitors were taken to hospital today after their vehicle was heavily damaged by an explosion near Pryshyb in the non-government controlled Luhansk region ...


... with this from Canada's Global Affairs info-machine:


> The Honourable Chrystia Freeland, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today released the following statement regarding the killing and wounding of members of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s (OSCE’s) Special Monitoring Mission in Eastern Ukraine:
> 
> “The Government of Canada is horrified by the incident that left one OSCE monitor dead and two others injured near Luhansk (Ukraine). Our thoughts are with the family and friends of those affected and we wish a swift recovery for the wounded.
> 
> “This incident must be fully investigated, and those responsible held accountable. The work undertaken by the Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine is essential to improving the security situation in eastern Ukraine. Canada urges that the Special Monitoring Mission be given full, secure and unimpeded access to all conflict-affected areas.”


----------



## The Bread Guy

Ukraine:  no more electricity for YOU, separatists/rebels! (UKR media)
Separatists/rebels:  no worries - we've got this (separatist/rebel media)
Russia:  _Anything_ to help out a neighbour ... (RUS state media)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Ahhhh, silly me -- _this_ is all it takes ...





#HarderThanIThought?


----------



## PuckChaser

So if Trump successfully mediates a lasting peace and resolution to the Ukrainian conflict, will he get a Nobel Peace Prize?


----------



## The Bread Guy

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> So if Trump successfully mediates a lasting peace and resolution to the Ukrainian conflict, will he get a Nobel Peace Prize?


If health care and tax reform are harder than he expected, I'd put Ukraine somewhere between those and the sane, reasonable Middle East for difficulty to sort out.

And it doesn't count just because he _says_ he did it ...  ;D


----------



## PuckChaser

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> If health care and tax reform are harder than he expected, I'd put Ukraine somewhere between those and the sane, reasonable Middle East for difficulty to sort out.
> 
> And it doesn't count just because he _says_ he did it ...  ;D



To be fair, he's already doing more to help the peace process than Obama did...


----------



## The Bread Guy

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> To be fair, he's already doing more to help the peace process than Obama did...


Which one?  UKR or Mid East?


----------



## The Bread Guy

This, from the counter-UKR info-ops file, via RUS-state media:  *"Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin said that he did not use lobbyists and pay them in order to organise meeting with US President Donald Trump ..."*  Apparently, the UKR politician who made the claim appears to be a conservative who doesn't seem to be getting on with current management.

Meanwhile, from the separatists/rebels ...

_*"(DNR boss) Zakharchenko surprise: We have one goal - to reunite with Russia"*_
_*"Russia-Donbass integration committee meets in Donetsk"*_
_*"DPR holds first meeting of Integration Committee "Russia-Donbass" "*_


----------



## The Bread Guy

From the info-fight ...

_*"Ukraine Bans Dozens of Russian Websites "*_
_*"Ukraine's Poroshenko to block Russian social networks"*_
_*"Rada introduces fines for production, distribution of Saint George ribbons as propaganda"*_
RUS media response?***

_*"Kiev Ban on Russian Social Networks Deprives Ukrainians of Communication Rights"*_
_*"Ukrainian politician blasts social networks ban by Kiev as being on par with North Korea"*_
_*"Ukraine bans most popular social networks because they are Russian-owned"*_
*** -  Notwithstanding Russia's not-entirely unblemished relationship with media and social media outlets.


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> From the info-fight ...
> 
> _*"Ukraine Bans Dozens of Russian Websites "*_
> _*"Ukraine's Poroshenko to block Russian social networks"*_
> _*"Rada introduces fines for production, distribution of Saint George ribbons as propaganda"*_
> (...)


Some follow-up ...

_*"Ukraine accuses Russia of attack on president's website after web sanctions"*_
_*"Kremlin dismisses allegations* about Russian cyber attack on Ukrainian president’s website"*_
*** - Like this guy says, don't believe it until Russia denies it ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> From the info-fight ...
> 
> _*"Ukraine Bans Dozens of Russian Websites "*_
> _*"Ukraine's Poroshenko to block Russian social networks"*_
> _*"Rada introduces fines for production, distribution of Saint George ribbons as propaganda"*_
> ...


Now, we have a measurable timeline/benchmark ...
_*"President on the blocking of Russian online resources: When the last Russian soldier leaves the territory of Ukraine, we will be ready to revise our decision"*_ (UKR Pres Office's info-machine)


----------



## The Bread Guy

A bit of help from Canada's diaspora ...


> *Volunteers from “Free People” NGO continues to help Ukrainian reconnaissance men*
> May 18, 2017
> _*Ukrainian diaspora in Canada through the volunteers from “Free People” NGO provide assistance to our warriors*_
> 
> Next visit of the volunteers from “Free People” NGO was held on the frontline in the ATO area. A politico-military expert, a representative of Ukrainian diaspora in Canada Ihor Kozak along with the volunteers visited reconnaissance, tank and the Special Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine units.
> 
> “I have been favorably impressed of advance of the Ukrainian warriors since the time of my last visit: provision, armaments are improved, NATO standards are implemented step by step. I want to focus on a high professional level and fighting spirit of personnel. It is possible to not only due to financial assistance but to regular training of military instructors from NATO countries, in particular, mission of Canadian servicemen. In addition, the Ukrainian community from Canada last month managed to persuade country’s government to continue mission for another three years”, – underscored Ihor Kozak, while inviting defenders of Ukraine.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Mo' reports of "Canadian instructors" close to eastern Ukraine, courtesy of Russia's military TV network (original article in Russian - archive.org version in Russian - Google Translate version in English below) - *highlights* mine:


> *VSU (Ukrainian forces) draws Grads to the line of contact*
> 16:13*** 06/25/2017
> 
> A trainload with personnel and heavy armament of the Armed Forces, including the ML-21 Grad missile system, arrived in the area of ​​the village of Vladimirovka, south of Donetsk. This was announced by Eduard Bazurin, deputy commander of the operational command of the Democratic People's Republic of Donbas.
> 
> The Ukrainian siloviki used the "bread truce" in the Donbass to regroup their forces and assets in the conflict zone. This was stated by Eduard Bazurin, deputy commander of the operational command of the Democratic People's Republic of France.
> 
> "The existing situation on the contact line allows us to conclude that under the cover of the" bread truce "Ukrainian security forces are strengthening the units in the Donetsk and Mariupol directions, dispersing the prohibited weapons," said Basurin.
> 
> According to him, a railway train with personnel and heavy weapons, including the BM-21 Grad missile system, arrived in the area of ​​the village of Vladimirovka to the south of Donetsk. In addition, at Volnova, militiamen recorded three railroad echelons of goods wagons with ammunition for tanks, as well as shells for MLRS and shells and powder charges for 122 and 152-mm barrel artillery. Towards Avdeevka, a column of 28 tanks of the APU moves. And in the city itself there is a battalion of Ukrainian siloviki "Kharkov".
> 
> *About 50 American and Canadian instructors arrived at Konstantinovka. According to the intelligence of the DNR, foreign specialists plan to start work in Mariupol.*
> 
> From 00:00 on June 25 in the Donbass the so-called "grain truce" began at the time of harvesting . The silence mode should last until August 31.


*** - Moscow time = 0913 Eastern Daylight Time


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Mo' reports of "Canadian instructors" close to eastern Ukraine, courtesy of Russia's military TV network (original article in Russian - archive.org version in Russian - Google Translate version in English below) - *highlights* mine:*** - Moscow time = 0913 Eastern Daylight Time


It's official - a CJOC spokesperson says it quite clearly ...


> *I can confirm 100% that we do not have any personnel in Konstaninovka.*


(source)
Nice try, Dis-info-machine ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Tough week for Ukrainian int guys ...

_*"Colonel Yuriy Vozny, a member of the Security Service of Ukraine, was killed during the execution of his official duties in the Kostyantynivskyi district of Donetsk Oblast.  The previous version of the cause of death is a car blast ..."*_ (UKR Security Service statement, Google Translation of original linked in Ukrainian)
_*"Authorities say a bomb planted under or inside a car has killed a senior Ukrainian military intelligence officer in the country’s capital.*  Photos from the scene showed the mangled vehicle in the middle of a Kyiv intersection. Police say the car’s driver was killed immediately and two passersby were slightly injured in the Tuesday morning blast.  The Defence Ministry identified the victim as Col. Maxim Shapoval of the Chief Directorate of Intelligence. Ukrainian media reported that Shapoval was chief of military intelligence’s special forces ..."_ (Associated Press, via _Toronto Star_)


----------



## The Bread Guy

1)  Some $ (just under $7M) from Canada's Global Affairs for _"human rights monitoring, conflict resolution, and mine awareness, surveying and clearance"_.
2)  Let's see if this'll help ...


> *Secretary Tillerson Appoints Ambassador Kurt Volker Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations*
> Press Statement
> Heather Nauert
> Department Spokesperson
> Washington, DC
> July 7, 2017
> 
> Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson announced today his appointment of Ambassador Kurt Volker to serve as the United States Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations. Ambassador Volker, who has served previously as the U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs, and as Director for NATO and Western Europe on the National Security Council, will take responsibility for advancing U.S. efforts to achieve the objectives set out in the Minsk agreements. He will accompany the Secretary to Kyiv on Sunday, July 9, and is expected to continue to hold regular meetings with Ukraine and the other members of the Normandy Format: Russia, Germany, and France.
> 
> "Kurt's wealth of experience makes him uniquely qualified to move this conflict in the direction of peace," said Secretary Tillerson. "The United States remains fully committed to the objectives of the Minsk agreements, and I have complete confidence in Kurt to continue our efforts to achieve peace in Ukraine."


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR defence minister seems to want mo' NATO troops in mo' bases - highlights mine, via the UKR DefMin info-machine:


> Minister of Defence of Ukraine General of the Army of Ukraine Stepan Poltorak held talks with Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, Commander U.S. Army, Europe. General Poltorak underlined the key role of General Hodges in training missions conducted in Ukraine. “There are citizens in any country and if your country has patriots like Gen. Hodges, it’s honourable. Today, NATO assistance gives its practical results. The casualties among our soldiers have reduced and we prevail in military operations. It’s very important, as due to training, the professionalism of our soldiers has been increased”, Poltorak mentioned. The Minister also briefed on prospects of development and improvement of training infrastructure of military posts and training fields of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. *“I am sure we have to extend the geography of training in participation of the NATO instructors at the Ukrainian training fields”, the head of defence ministry underscored*. General Poltorak thanked General Hodges for a particular contribution to reforms of the Ukrainian army and presented him “For Development of Military Cooperation” medal.


----------



## Cdn Blackshirt

I'm betting the Ukrainian leadership recognizes that they need a profound culture shift, and best way to do that is have NATO guys around as much as possible....


----------



## MilEME09

Cdn Blackshirt said:
			
		

> I'm betting the Ukrainian leadership recognizes that they need a profound culture shift, and best way to do that is have NATO guys around as much as possible....



They also have taken hard earned lessons in battle to heart, their forces are very much shifting to a heavy mechanized force with Heavy IFV's based off the T-64 chassis coming off the production line, and new T-84's being built. Now if they could get their airforce updated a bit, and deal with spies/corruption they will having a fighting chance.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> ... if they could get their airforce updated a bit, and deal with spies/*corruption* they will having a fighting chance.


And as much as I like to root for the underdog, that bit in yellow seems hard to completely root out for the moment.


----------



## The Bread Guy

No more Novorossia -- all hail Malorossia (Little Russia)!  

This from the separatist Donetsk "Republic's" page - in Russian followed by English (via archive.org***):


> A historic event, the signing of the political declaration on the creation of a new state, which will become the legal successor of “Ukraine”, took place today, on July 18th, in the capital of the Donetsk People’s Republic. The new state formation will consist of 19 regions of the former Ukraine and will be called Malorossia with the center of the new state in Donetsk. Kiev remains a historical and cultural center without the capital city status. A correspondent of the official website of the DPR reported this from the scene.
> 
> “All of us have gathered here together to talk about the future. We propose a plan for the reintegration of the country through the law and Constitution. We must build a new country in which the concepts of conscience and honor are not forgotten. We offer Ukrainian citizens a peaceful way out of the difficult situation, without the war. This is our last offer not only to the Ukrainians, but also to all countries that supported the civil war in Donbass. I am convinced that we will do everything possible and impossible,” Head of the DPR Alexander Zakharchenko addressed the audience.
> 
> The event was visited by Head of the DPR Alexander Zakharchenko, adviser to the Head Zakhar Prilepin, Deputy Chairman of the Council of Ministers, Minister of Revenues and Duties of the Republic Alexander Timofeev, as well as representatives of most regions that formerly were part of Ukraine.
> 
> All present delegates unanimously voted in an open ballot for signing the political declaration on the creation of Malorossia with the center in Donetsk.
> 
> “Malorossia is a federal state with broad powers of autonomy of the regions. The right of regional languages ​​is guaranteed to be retained, the flag of Bogdan Khmelnitsky is recognized as the national flag,” Alexander Timofeev cited the constitutional act.


More ... (via archive.org)


> During the meeting with signers of the political declaration on the creation of the new State of Malorossia, delegates from various regions of the former Ukraine expressed the hope that the proclaimed federal state with the center in Donetsk would help to rid the ancestral Russian lands from the criminal Kiev regime. A correspondent of the official website of the Donetsk People’s Republic reported this.
> 
> “We have been waiting for this day for three long years! Just trust in us, and we will not fail you,” representatives of various regions of the former Ukraine concurred. “We will restore the lapsed power of our country. For the sake of our land and the memory of our ancestors, it is worth fighting.”
> 
> Head of the DPR Alexander Zakharchenko stated that the situation in Ukraine had reached a deadlock, and the way out of this situation could become the creation of the new state of Malorossia for a transition period of up to three years.
> 
> “To stop the civil war, we discussed the situation and came to the conclusion that Ukraine has shown itself as a failed state. The Kiev regime is not able to leave a civil war,” Zakharchenko said.
> 
> According to Alexander Zakharchenko, Malorossia will become an independent young federal state.
> 
> The DPR Commander-in-Chief is sure that the creation of Malorossia will help to stop the conflict in Donbass, but this requires support from the international community and inhabitants of the Republics.
> 
> He also called the creation of the new independent state the last offer to pull out of the civil war.
> 
> In his turn, Secretary of the Executive Committee Alexander Kazakov noted that the proclamation of Malorossia did not contradict the Minsk Agreements, “On the contrary, our proposal to the Ukrainian nation makes up for the Agreements. The war is now impossible, we are one nation,” he said.
> 
> “Our opponents will have to restart their rhetoric, because the people living here and in the territory of the now former Ukraine are not separatists or terrorists. These are people who peacefully made the decision to change the situation for good. The Donetsk People’s Republic has every reason to declare today the starting point of the new state,” Zakhar Prilepin said.


PDF of documents referred to in links (in Russian) & map (Little Russia in red) attached.

One thing, though ... This from the Luhansk separatist government (via archive.org, in Russian) - highlights of Google Translation mine:


> *The initiative to create Little Russia is untimely - Deynego*
> 
> The initiative to create a new state of Little Russia is untimely. This was announced today by the LIC, the authorized representative of the People's Republic of Finland at the Minsk negotiations, Vladislav Deynego.
> 
> *Earlier today, the head of the DNR, Alexander Zakharchenko, announced the creation of a new state on the territory of the former Ukraine - Little Russia - with the capital in Donetsk. According to him, this decision was allegedly supported by representatives of the People's Republic of China and a number of territories controlled by Kiev*. Representatives of the leadership of the DNR denied participation of the representatives of the Republic in the meeting in Donetsk, where it was announced about the creation of Little Russia.
> 
> "The initiative to create Little Russia, put forward today in Donetsk, is not timely," Deynego said.
> 
> *"We learned about it from the media, and nobody discussed this project with us," he said.*
> 
> "Sharing the position of the majority of residents of the south-eastern regions of Ukraine, who are opposed to the Kiev authorities, we consider it important to remain committed to the Minsk agreements and will continue to demand that Ukraine fulfill them," the authorized representative of the People's Republic of Lugansk stressed.
> 
> Participants of the Contact Group for the settlement of the situation in the Donbass on February 12, 2015 signed in Minsk, coordinated with the heads of the participating countries of the "Norman Quartet" (Russia, Germany, France and Ukraine) a set of measures to implement the Minsk agreements.
> 
> The document provides for a cease-fire, the removal of heavy weapons from the line of contact, the opening of a dialogue on restoring the socio-economic ties between Kiev and the Donbass, and the reform of Ukraine's constitution with the aim of decentralizing and securing the "special status of certain regions of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions."
> 
> LuganskInformCentre - July 18 - Lugansk


Time for a bit of divide & conquer by the Ukrainians?
op:

*** - When I clicked to the separatist web pages, my anti-malware protection went off, so I archived the pages and shared those safer links.


----------



## The Bread Guy

And Russia's public response to Donetsk's plans?


> The idea of the establishment of a new state Malorossiya is a personal initiative of Alexander Zakharchenko, Head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), Russian president’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday.
> 
> "The statement Zakharchenko made this morning about Malorossiya is his personal initiative. Moscow learnt about it from the press. We stay committed to the Minsk agreements," he stressed.
> 
> Earlier in the day, a project for the establishment of a new state - Malorossiya - that would be Ukraine’s successor and would include a number of its regions was announced at a public meeting in Donetsk. Two documents - a political declaration and a constitutional act - were adopted by voting. According to the project’s initiators, the initiative is geared "to stop the civil war and avoid further casualties."
> 
> The neighboring self-proclaimed Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR) said however it is not taking part in the project. "The LPR was established as an expression of people’s will and we have no right to make such steps without hearing people’s opinion," the press service of LPR Head Igor Plotnitsky said. "The republic thinks it important to stay committed to the Minsk agreements and will continue to demand Ukraine do the same."
> 
> Commenting on this initiative, Russia’s chief negotiator in the Contact Group for settlement of the crisis in eastern Ukraine Boris Gryzlov said it should not be taken as manifestation of real politics. "This initiative doesn’t fit into the Minsk process. I take it merely as an invitation for discussion. This statement has no constitutive effects," he said. "This initiative is rather a part of information warfare than a subject of real politics."


----------



## The Bread Guy

An interesting piece on why Russia can't afford to annex Novorossia/Malorossiya/occupied Ukraine, shared under the Fair Dealing provisions of the _Copyright Act (R.S.C., 1985, c. C-42)_ ...


> *Moscow Cannot Afford a South Ossetian Strategy in Ukraine’s Donbas*
> _Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 94
> By: Paul Goble
> July 18, 2017 08:12 PM_
> 
> Vladimir Putin has slammed the brakes on a much-ballyhooed Duma proposal to offer Ukrainians in the occupied Donbas region Russian citizenship on a simplified basis (Kommersant, July 18). Almost certainly, the initiative was abandoned because if these individuals were to obtain that status—as the residents of the breakaway “Republic” of South Ossetia did almost a decade ago—then Moscow would have to assume responsibility for them. And this is something the Kremlin clearly recognizes it cannot presently afford.
> 
> Numerous Duma members and others in Russia who support this idea see a simplified path to Russian citizenship as opening the way for the ultimate annexation of Donbas. But many in the Kremlin recognize such an outcome would be extremely costly financially and politically. Financially, it would put burdens on Moscow to come up with money to provide at least basic services to several million people; and politically, it would mean that the Kremlin would be eliminating the chief lever it hopes to have in Ukraine as well as further isolating the Russian Federation from the Western powers.
> 
> This turn of events suggests that Putin, if not all the members of the Duma, recognizes that while Moscow benefits in many ways from the so-called “frozen” conflict in Donbas, it could lose big by taking any dramatic step to further destabilize the situation. In turn, that means today’s announcement that the Moscow-backed leadership of Russian-occupied Donbas plans to form “a successor state” to Ukraine—“Malorossiya”—should be dismissed as nothing more than the latest incarnation of the Russian propaganda project “Novorossiya.” One may, thus, readily expect that this new iteration will ultimately fail to materialize just like “Novorossiya” did. And in fact, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko is already predicting such a fate (Spektr.press, July 18).
> 
> Putin’s decision to quash the Duma bill was reported in today’s (July 18) Kommersant and quickly picked up by Ukrainian outlets (Kommersant, Dsnews.ua, July 18). Deputy Konstantin Zatulin’s proposal on the simplification of citizenship procedures for non-Russians specifically covers “bearers of the Russian language” who live on the territory of the former Russian Empire or the Soviet Union. Putin’s objections to the Zatulin bill were cast by the paper in terms of the entire region, but the Kremlin leader’s decision applies in the first instance to Ukrainians, especially those already living in the Russian Federation or in the Russian-occupied Donbas.
> 
> Tomorrow, the Duma will consider the measure but without the sweeping provisions Zatulin had offered. According to Kommersant, the United Russia deputy has already pulled them “on the recommendation of Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, who suggested coordinating this with the Main Political Administration [of the parliament], the foreign ministry, the interior ministry, and the Russian government as a whole.” This brings to a halt what had appeared to be a runaway train. The Duma had already approved Zatulin’s idea on first reading because many of its members clearly felt that tens if not hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians would choose to become Russians overnight if they did not have to go through the current complicated system of obtaining written confirmation of their status as Ukrainians from the Ukrainian government. Kyiv has been slow to provide such confirmation documentation, according to Duma members.
> 
> Before Putin’s intervention, Duma members had been enthusiastic about the measure, convinced that it meant, in the words of Aleksey Polubota, a Svobodnaya Pressa commentator, that “Russia is preparing a ‘South Ossetian’ variant for Donbas.” The offer of Russian citizenship to people in the occupied regions would soon be followed by Moscow’s recognition of those regions as independent countries, he further predicted (Svobodnaya Pressa, July 15).
> 
> Duma deputies suggested that “by the most modest estimates,” some 700,000 Ukrainians would choose to become Russian citizens overnight, if the new simplified procedures were put in place. And many of them suggested this should have happened long before now, Andrey Yepifantsev, a Moscow analyst, told Polubota. The reason Moscow has moved in this direction, he said, was that Putin decided—on the basis of his recent meeting with United States President Donald Trump, in Hamburg—that the Minsk agreements on a Ukrainian ceasefire have no future. Rather, Yepifantsev argued that Russia must “repeat the steps it already took in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the handing out of its passports. This shows that Moscow will assume responsibility for the defense of its citizens in the unrecognized republics” that will then become independent countries.
> 
> Aleksandr Shatilov, the dean of the sociology and political science faculty at the government’s Finance University, agreed. He told the Svobodnaya Pressa commentator that “receipt of Russian citizenship by residents of Donbas will mean that they will be under the protection of the Russian state.” Russians support such a move, even if some in the “Russian elite” still have “illusions” that they can reach a deal with the West on Ukraine, Shatilov asserted.
> 
> But Putin’s intervention, signaled by Kommersant today, shows that whatever “illusions” some in Moscow may have, the Russian government clearly believes it cannot afford to do what the Russian parliament would like.


----------



## The Bread Guy

A bit of history, to provide lessons down the road (not just in Ukraine), shared under the Fair Dealing provisions of the _Copyright Act (R.S.C., 1985, c. C-42)_ ...


> *Why Ukrainian forces gave up Crimea without a fight - and NATO is alert*
> By Pavel Polityuk and Anton Zverev
> 
> The career of Sergei Yeliseyev helps to explain why Ukraine's armed forces gave up Crimea almost without a fight - and why NATO now says it is alert to Russian attempts to undermine military loyalty in its eastern European members.
> 
> His rise to become number two in the Ukrainian navy long before Russia seized Crimea illustrates the divided loyalties that some personnel in countries that once belonged to the Soviet Union might still face.
> 
> Yeliseyev's roots were in Russia but he ended up serving Ukraine, a different ex-Soviet republic, only to defect when put to the test. NATO military planners now believe Moscow regards people with similarly ambiguous personal links as potentially valuable, should a new confrontation break out with the West.
> 
> In 2014, Yeliseyev was first deputy commander of the Ukrainian fleet, then largely based in Crimea, when Russian soldiers in unmarked uniforms took control of Kiev's ships and military bases on the peninsula.
> 
> Instead of resisting, Yeliseyev quit and subsequently got a new job: deputy chief of Russia's Baltic Fleet.
> 
> Yeliseyev, now aged 55, did not respond to Reuters questions sent to him via the Russian defense ministry.
> 
> In Kiev, however, there is no doubt where his loyalties lay. "When he took an oath to Ukraine, these were empty words for him. He has always been pro-Russian," said Ihor Voronchenko, now commander of the Ukrainian navy, who once served with Yeliseyev.
> 
> In fact, the Russian soldiers were pushing at an open door in late February 2014 - Yeliseyev was just one of many to defect and almost all Ukrainian forces in Crimea failed to resist.
> 
> Russia annexed Crimea the following month, prompting a major row with the West which deepened over Moscow's role in a rebellion in eastern Ukraine that lasts to this day.
> 
> At the time, Moscow and its allies in Crimea exploited weaknesses within Kiev's military to undermine its ability to put up a fight, according to interviews conducted by Reuters with about a dozen people on both sides of the conflict.
> 
> The Russian defense ministry did not respond to questions on their accounts of the events in 2014 submitted by Reuters.
> 
> One NATO commander told Reuters that, in a re-run of the tactics it deployed in Crimea, Russian intelligence was trying to recruit ethnic Russians serving in the militaries of countries on its borders.
> 
> Speaking on condition of anonymity, the commander said the alliance was particularly sensitive to the risk in countries with high concentrations of ethnic Russians, notably the Baltic states.
> 
> NATO had to guard against this, said the commander, though the risk should not be overstated because having Russian roots did not necessarily mean that a person's loyalty is to Moscow.
> 
> Officials in the Baltic states, former Soviet republics which unlike Ukraine are NATO members, play down the danger.
> 
> NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg likewise said he trusted the armies of the Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Still, he told Reuters: "We always have to be vigilant. We always have to develop our intelligence tools and to be able to see any attempts to try to undermine the loyalty of our forces."
> 
> *Dropping the Guard *
> 
> Years before the Crimean annexation, a Ukrainian appointment panel appeared to drop its guard when it interviewed Yeliseyev for the deputy naval commander's post.
> 
> Yeliseyev was born near Moscow, graduated from a Soviet naval school in the Russian city of Kaliningrad in 1983 and served with the Russian Pacific fleet.
> 
> So the panel asked Yeliseyev what he would do if Russia and Ukraine went to war. He replied that he would file for early retirement, according to Myroslav Mamchak, a former Ukrainian naval captain who served with Yeliseyev. Despite this response, Yeliseyev got the job in 2006.
> 
> Mamchak did not disclose to Reuters how he knew what was said in the interview room but subsequent events bear out his account.
> 
> Relations between Russia and Ukraine dived as Kiev moved closer to NATO and eight years after his appointment, with the countries on the brink of conflict over Crimea, Yeliseyev stayed true to his word by quitting.
> 
> Russia's actions were not the only factor in the Crimean events. Ukraine's military had suffered years of neglect, there was a power vacuum in Kiev after the government was overthrown, and many Crimean residents felt more affinity with Moscow.
> 
> Still, Ukrainian service personnel with Russian ties switched sides when the annexation began and some officers pretended to put up resistance only to avoid court-martial. Moscow also intercepted orders from Kiev so they never reached the Crimean garrison.
> 
> "There was nothing spontaneous. Everything was organized and each fiddler played his role," said Mykhailo Koval, who at the time was deputy head of the Ukrainian border guard and is now deputy head of the Security Council in Kiev.
> 
> *Invitation to Defect *
> 
> Voronchenko, who was another deputy commander of the navy at the time of the annexation, said he had received invitations to defect to Moscow's side soon after the Russian operation began.
> 
> These, he told Reuters, came from Sergei Aksyonov, who was then head of Crimea's self-proclaimed pro-Russian government, as well as from the commander of Russia's southern military district and a deputy Russian defense minister.
> 
> Asked what they offered in exchange, Voronchenko said: "Posts, an apartment ... Aksyonov offered to make me defense minister of Crimea." Neither Aksyonov nor the Russian defense ministry responded to Reuters questions about the contacts.
> 
> Voronchenko, in common with many other senior Ukrainian officers, had been in the Soviet military alongside people now serving in the Russian armed forces. He had spent years in Crimea, where Russia leased bases from Ukraine for its Black Sea fleet after the 1991 break up of the Soviet Union.
> 
> "Those generals who came to persuade me ... said that we belong to the same circle, we came from the Soviet army," he said. "But I told them I am different ... I am not yours."
> 
> Naval chief Denis Berezovsky did defect, along with several of his commanders, and was later made deputy chief of the Russian Black Sea fleet.
> 
> Many in the ranks followed suit. At one Ukrainian signals unit, service personnel were watching Russian television when President Vladimir Putin appeared on the screen.
> 
> "To my surprise, they all stood up," said Svyatoslav Veltynsky, an engineer at the unit. "They had been waiting for this." The majority of the unit defected to the Russian side.
> 
> *Just a Show*
> 
> Even those willing to resist found themselves in a hopeless position. One member of the Ukrainian border guards told Reuters how his commander had despatched their unit's ships to stop them falling into Russian hands, and ordered his men to train their rifles on anyone trying to enter their base.
> 
> However, the base's military communications were not working, having been either jammed or cut by the Russians. Isolated from his own side, and outnumbered and outgunned by Russian troops outside, the commander struck a deal with the head of a Russian special forces unit.
> 
> Pro-Russian civilians were allowed to force the base's gate without reprisals. The Ukrainians "supposedly could not do anything; you cannot shoot civilians", the member of the unit said on condition of anonymity because he is still living in Crimea and feared repercussions.
> 
> Russian troops then followed the civilians in, taking over the base and offering the unit a chance to switch allegiance to Russia. About half agreed, although the base's chief refused and was allowed to leave Crimea.
> 
> "The commander did not resist," said the unit member. "On the other hand, he did what he could under the circumstances."
> 
> Two other people involved in the annexation - a former Ukrainian serviceman now on a Russian base in Crimea, and a source close to the Russian military who was there at the time - also described witnessing similar faked confrontations.
> 
> "You have to understand that the seizure of Ukrainian military units in Crimea was just a show," said the source close to the Russian military.
> 
> *Lessons Learned*
> 
> NATO's Baltic members differ significantly from Ukraine. Soviet-era commanders, for instance, largely left their armed forces after the countries joined the Western alliance in 2004.
> 
> Officials also point out that Russian speakers were among the seven members of Latvia's forces to die during international deployments to Afghanistan and Iraq.
> 
> Nevertheless, lessons have been learned from Crimea. "We learned, of course, that there was not only the issue of loyalty, but also false orders were submitted and there was a blockage of communication during the Crimea operation," said Janis Garisons, State Secretary in the Latvian defense ministry.
> 
> Latvia has changed the law so that unit commanders are obliged to resist by default. But Garisons said the simplest step was taken long before the annexation, with the introduction in 2008 of vetting by the security services for "everybody who joins the armed forces, from private to general".
> 
> Additional reporting by Margaryta Chornokondratenko in KIEV, Andrius Sytas in VILNIUS, Gederts Gelzis in RIGA, David Mardiste in TALLINN, and Robin Emmott in BRUSSELS; editing by David Stamp


----------



## The Bread Guy

Javelins, up?

_*Pentagon Asks White House to Give Lethal Weapons to Ukraine* -- "A recommendation to send high-tech tank-killing weapons to Ukraine to help in its fight against Russia is now at the White House, according to three U.S. officials.  The officials said a proposed aid package includes Javelin anti-tank missiles with an estimated cost of about $50 million ..."_ (NBC News)
_*"Reports: Pentagon seeks White House approval to arm Ukrainian forces"*_ (_Stars & Stripes_)
_*"US arming Ukraine? A look at how Moscow might respond"*_ (defensenews.com)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Russia's info-machine bringing up an interesting parallel on a relevant anniversary - shared under the Fair Dealing provisions of the _Copyright Act (R.S.C., 1985, c. C-42)_ ...


> *Ukraine Mulls Repetition of Croatia's 'Reintegration' of Serb Krajina in Donbass*
> RIA Novosti/Sputnik News, 5 Aug 2017
> 
> On August 4, 1995, Croatia launched “Operation Storm” against the Serb-inhabited territory of Krajina. As a result, the self-proclaimed Republic of Serbian Krajina ceased to exist, thousands of people were killed and over 220,000 driven from their homes. More than two decades on, the Ukrainian leaders are mulling a similar scenario for Donbass.
> 
> Model disciples
> 
> The idea of emulating the Croatian experience of “reintegration” in the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics has been circulating in Kiev’s corridors of power since the start of the armed conflict in Donbass three years ago.
> 
> “Croatia is a good example. While tolerating the existence of Krajina for three years, the Croats built up their economy and armed forces and then, in a matter of hours, their tanks wiped the separatists off the face of the earth,” Yuriy Lutsenko, then President Poroshenko’s political advisor, wrote on Facebook in 2014.
> 
> In 2016 Ukraine and Croatia set up a working group to provide consultative assistance to Ukraine on “reintegration of occupied territories.” Croatia’s then Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic said that his country was ready to share its experience of winning back lost territories.
> 
> The move invited an angry rebuff from Moscow.
> 
> “The casualties inflicted by the large-scale military operations in Croatia in 1995 – Operation Lightning and Operation Storm – are well known, as is the resulting forced exodus of around 250,000 Serbs who permanently resided there. We have reason to fear that recommendations by foreign “consultants,”, which might encourage dangerous illusions among the Kiev leadership that a military solution is possible in Donbass, will do anything but improve security in Ukraine’s southeast,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
> 
> Unfazed by this, Ukraine’s Prime Minister Volodymyr Groisman said in June 2017 that Ukrainian officials should emulate the experience of Croatia, which “after a bloody war provoked by the regime of Slobodan Milosevic managed to take back lost territories and restore peace.”
> 
> In an interview with RT, Yevsei Vasilyev, an expert on international security at the Russian State Humanitarian University in Moscow, said that Kiev was citing the Croatian experience in order “to apply its military aspect to the disobedient Ukrainians in the east.”
> 
> “There are two reasons why the Croatian model is so appealing to Kiev. First, because it would help solve the problem with the help of a large-scale military operation, and, secondly, it would absolve them from any responsibility for the loss of civilian lives, because ‘the winner gets it all,’” Vasilyev said.
> 
> “Advised by their Western and NATO mentors, the Ukrainian authorities would like to use the ‘Croatian scenario to get rid of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics and bring Donbass back under Kiev’s control. This is exactly what happened to the Republic of Serbian Krajina, which Croatia clawed back in 1995-1998,” the expert continued.
> 
> He added that, just like the Croatia of the 1990s, Ukraine was now run by nationalists leaning back on Western assistance in their standoff with Russia.
> 
> “However, there is one big difference between the Croatia of 1995 and present-day Ukraine, and this is Russia, which will not allow any repetition of the Western scenarios of war crimes against civilians, much less in the vicinity of its borders,” Yevsei Vasilyev emphasized.
> 
> The Donbass conflict erupted in April 2014 as a local counter-reaction to the Western-sponsored Maidan coup in Kiev that had toppled President Viktor Yanukovych in February.
> 
> Residents of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions held independence referendums and proclaimed the People's Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk. Kiev has since been conducting a military operation, encountering stiff local resistance.


In case you hadn't already heard about it, more on Croatia's Op STORM (usual Wikipedia caveats apply) here.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Partnership with Canadian & Brit companies coming up -- shared under the Fair Dealing provisions of the _Copyright Act (R.S.C., 1985, c. C-42)_ ...


> *British Stiletto Systems, Canadian MAGNUM ready to participate in tender to build new ammunition plant in Ukraine*
> 
> British-based Stiletto Systems Ltd. jointly with Canadian-based MAGNUM and its division Waterbury Farrel are considering the possibility of participating in a tender of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade to create a new production of shooting and artillery ammunition in Ukraine.
> 
> Head of Stiletto Ukraine Roman Karpenko told Interfax-Ukraine the British-Canadian alliance has practical experience in designing and building modern ammunition production facilities in a number of countries and is ready to provide the construction of a new ammunition plant in Ukraine.
> 
> "Stiletto Systems Ltd. in alliance with MAGNUM and its division Waterbury Farrel are interested in participating in a possible tender of the ministry and are ready to offer a wide range of infantry and artillery ammunition, taking into account the request of the Defense Ministry and the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," he said, noting that the alliance's proposals for cooperation in the project were submitted to the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine for familiarization in July.
> 
> British-based Stiletto Systems Ltd. specializes in the development of ammunition and small arms.


157 page proposal/package on the idea (dated October 2015) via Stiletto Systems page here.


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> No more Novorossia -- all hail Malorossia (Little Russia)! ...


Malorossia firing alright, Malorossia - STOPS!  This from the separatist info-machine ...


> *Zakharchenko: The idea to re-establish Ukraine has wide support, the name ‘Malorossiya’ off the agenda*
> 
> Donetsk, Aug 9 – DAN. The idea to re-establish Ukraine based on new principles generated a broad public discussion underscoring the urgency of the issue amidst the country’s deep ongoing crisis, DPR Head Alexander Zakharchenko said on Wednesday.
> 
> “The very idea to re-establish the state plunged into a deep economic and political crisis which is not making attempts to carry out major federalisation reforms or look for ways out of the collapse, has been given broad support,” Zakharchenko said as he replied a Donetsk News Agency journalist’s question.
> 
> “Already at this point we can say that the name Malorossiya will not be adopted as many resent it. There’ve been many interesting different recommendations and comments which shows that starting the discussion was the right thing to do.”
> 
> Zakharchenko said that Ukrainian incumbent authorities’ current policies threaten further existence of the state.
> 
> “Kiev should ponder the fact that continuing this pernicious policy and the inability to negotiate will result in the country’s breaking up,” he said.
> 
> On 26 July, the DPR leader said there would be more public discussion on Ukraine’s possible re-establishment based on new federal principles with the view of resolving the Donbass military conflict.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Ukraine seeks tips from Croatia re:  recovering occupied territory - and Russia's underwhelmed ...

_*"Ukraine will use the experience of Croatia in the process of re-integration of Donbas, Ukraine's Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman said ..."*_ (en.interfax.com.ua, UKR media)
_*"During a two-day working visit to Kiev, members of the Croatian government's working group for cooperation between Croatia and Ukraine presented the Croatian model of successful and peaceful reintegration of the Ukrainian territory, said on Friday at a press conference at the Foreign Ministry members of the delegation, pointing out that Croatia was doing nothing outside of the Minsk process and had “no hidden agenda,” ..."*_ (Total Croatia News)
_*"Russia voices concerns over Ukraine-Croatia contacts on regaining control over Donbass"*_ (TASS)
_*"Ukraine Mulls Repetition of Croatia's 'Reintegration' of Serb Krajina in Donbass"*_ (RIA Novosti - RUS state-funded media)
_*"We have noted the contacts between Ukrainian authorities and former Croatian Minister of Justice Vesna Skare-Ozbolt, former Deputy Interior Minister Josko Moric and former Head of the Directorate for Expellees, Returnees, and Refugees Lovre Pejkovic who arrived from Zagreb, at the end of August in Kiev.* Judging by the information available from the media, the issues discussed at the meetings included the “return of occupied territories” based on Croatia’s experience of the 1990s. That experience is more than controversial, it is negative, to put it bluntly. Suffice it to recall the approximately 250,000 Serbian refugees, forced out of Croatia by the military operations carried out by Zagreb in 1995, and the numerous civilian casualties ..."_ (RUS Ministry of Foreign Affairs)


----------



## The Bread Guy

"Not that we control anything on the separatist side, you understand ..." - highlights mine, shared under the Fair Dealing provisions of the _Copyright Act (R.S.C., 1985, c. C-42)_ ...


> *Putin’s threat: "Other conflict zones" may be attacked if U.S. gives lethal aid to Kyiv *
> _If the United States provides lethal aid to Ukraine, Russian militants may point their guns at other Ukrainian regions beyond the war-torn Donbas, Russian President Vladimir Putin told a press conference following the BRICS summit in China an UNIAN correspondent in Russia reports._
> unian.info, 10:20, 05 September 2017
> 
> "This is a sovereign decision [providing lethal aid to Ukraine] of the U.S., whom to sell weapons or supply them for free, and the country that is the recipient of such assistance. We will not be able to influence this process in any way," Putin said.
> 
> According to him, "there are international rules and approaches: the supply of weapons to the conflict zone does not contribute to the peace settlement, but only aggravates the situation."
> 
> "If this happens in this case, this decision will not fundamentally change the situation, in general will not affect the situation change, but the number of victims, of course, may grow," Putin said.
> 
> "I want to emphasize so that everyone understands - nothing will change," the Russian president vowed.
> 
> "There is one more point to which those bearing such ideas should pay attention. This is about the fact that _*the self-proclaimed republics have enough weapons, including those seized from the opposing side - from nationalist battalions and so on. And if American weapons will be delivered to the conflict zone, it will be difficult to say how the proclaimed republics will act. Maybe they will get their weapons to other conflict zones that are sensitive to those who create problems for them,"*_ Putin said.


Wonder what that "and so on" means?  See attached ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

NOW, Russia is happy to have U.N. peacekeepers in eastern Ukraine - he's apparently told his foreign minister to get 'er done at the U.N. - but only as long as the peacekeepers patrol the "line of contact" between Ukraine and separatist-occupied Ukraine, not the Russian border.  

Separatists are falling into line with Russia's new line, even going as far as telling their forces to do what they've always supposed to do:  let OSCE observers do their job.

Not surprisingly, Ukraine's thinking differently about where they should go -- as well as being clear about "no Russians allowed" among the peacekeepers.

op:


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> "Not that we control anything on the separatist side, you understand ..."


... or, put another way, see attached.

Meanwhile, an interesting take on the message sent:


> *Veiled Threat or Realistic Admission?*
> nobsrussia.com blog, 5 Sept 2017
> 
> Those who have been following Russia’s war on Ukraine have no doubt heard the increased buzz about the US potentially supplying lethal arms to the Ukrainian military. While I’m all for supplying Ukraine with military technology (though there’s a big difference between what they want and what they actually need), I find the hype to be ridiculous when you actually look at what US officials are saying. Basically Putin enthusiastically dumps tons of weapons and military vehicles into Ukraine without any reservations whatsoever, while US officials say things like “the US is now seriously considering the possibility of providing lethal weapons…” and the talking heads act like this is a sincere promise, as though the weapons are currently being crated for transport as we speak. Of course on the US side, and only the US side, there are also pundits who object to such transfers, but their arguments are typically poor.
> 
> Recently, Vladimir Putin reacted to the question of US arms for Ukraine during a press conference at the BRICS summit. His comments were rather ambiguous, with the first half seeming to indicate no reaction and the last half being a veiled threat about taking more territory in Ukraine. I give you his quotes here, translated by the Ukrainian UNIAN news service.
> 
> “This is a sovereign decision [providing lethal aid to Ukraine] of the U.S., whom to sell weapons or supply them for free, and the country that is the recipient of such assistance. We will not be able to influence this process in any way,” Putin said.
> 
> According to him, “there are international rules and approaches: the supply of weapons to the conflict zone does not contribute to the peace settlement, but only aggravates the situation.”
> 
> “If this happens in this case, this decision will not fundamentally change the situation, in general will not affect the situation change, but the number of victims, of course, may grow,” Putin said. “I want to emphasize so that everyone understands – nothing will change,” the Russian president vowed.
> 
> “There is one more point to which those bearing such ideas should pay attention. This is about the fact that the self-proclaimed republics have enough weapons, including those seized from the opposing side – from nationalist battalions and so on. And if American weapons will be delivered to the conflict zone, it will be difficult to say how the proclaimed republics will act. Maybe they will get their weapons to other conflict zones that are sensitive to those who create problems for them,” Putin said.”
> 
> As far as interpreting the statement as a veiled threat, it seems that UNIAN focused on the last quote, wherein Putin hilariously claims that the “self-proclaimed republics” are somehow well armed entirely from captured weapons and, presumably, weapons that they either somehow manufactured or acquired from abroad. I tend to think the key takeaway in Putin’s statement comes before that, where he stresses there will be no change. Basically he’s posturing, trying to signal to the West that he won’t back down in Ukraine. To understand why you have to look at what “arming Ukraine” means in Western parlance.
> 
> Since the battle of Debaltseve in 2015, “arming Ukraine” has basically been boiled down to one issue- Javelins. For those non-military types out there I’ll give you the quick crash course. The FGM-148 Javelin is arguably the most effective portable anti-tank weapon in the world right now. It is “fire-and-forget,” meaning the operator does not have to guide the missile to its target and therefore can relocate to another position upon firing. It has incredibly long range, over 4 kilometers or nearly 3 miles. It also attacks from the top, where tanks are most vulnerable.
> 
> Of course there are some caveats- the system is extremely expensive and it’s not exactly a magic “Make Tanks Go Away” wand. We cannot say for sure how they would have affected the outcome of a battle like Debaltseve. More importantly, plenty of experts have correctly pointed out that Ukraine actually produces plenty of high-quality anti-tank missiles on its own– the problem is that Ukraine’s arms industry often fails to adequately deliver its products to the front. Ukraine’s arms industry also produces another product which is good at knocking out Russian tanks- they’re called other tanks.
> 
> But Putin’s quote about arms not making a difference may serve as another reminder of why the arm Ukraine debate should constantly revolve around Javelins. I’ve been saying for some time that Javelins would make little difference given the situation and the Ukrainian government’s position on the war. They can only serve as a deterrent to a Russian attempt to advance in the Donbas, something which they don’t seem interested in doing. Putin’s comment would seem to confirm this. Everything in 2014 from the Crimean annexation to the attempt at creating “Novorossiya” was nothing but a big gamble to see what Russia could get away with. After Minsk II in 2015, Putin knows his limit of advance. So in other words, Javelins would definitely serve as a deterrent, but they’d be deterring something Russia’s not planning to do.
> 
> Just to be sure, the Javelins could serve as a deterrent to something I’ve long worried about, especially after the winter of 2016-2017, which is a sort of punitive raid or small offensive aimed solely at isolating and destroying a Ukrainian front-line unit, in a place like Avdiivka or the so-called Svitlodarsk bulge. But beyond this, the only thing Javelins would be good for is sniping the occasional tank which comes up to the front to take potshots from time to time. The Russians could simply halt this practice and rely on their long-range artillery to keep inflicting casualties on Ukrainian forces. They’d be better off for it.
> 
> Of course there are ways Ukraine could use Javelins in a more offensive manner to actually retake territory, but the government clearly doesn’t have the stomach for that and doing so would require the military to adopt unconventional, insurgent-style tactics, something that conventional military forces typically don’t do unless they’re absolutely forced to. The Ukrainian military has worked so hard just to achieve a minimum of professionalism as a conventional army that I can’t imagine there’d be anyone among the top brass willing to consider more revolutionary methods of warfare, which is a pity because personally I think Ukraine’s only hope lies in such bold, unconventional strategies and tactics.
> 
> Getting back to the topic at hand, one can still read Putin’s final comment as a veiled threat, but it’s most likely an empty one. The meat of this statement is that he’s calling the whole situation a stalemate by saying that new weapons won’t make a difference. For the moment, at least, arms can only serve as a deterrent to something he’s not planning to do.
> 
> Of course there is one scenario in which Putin might make good on his threat, and US leaders and other officials had better pay close attention. Although the Russians naturally tell themselves that the US has been arming Ukraine this whole time (this is the a priori justification that Russia’s leaders so often use), if they see the US seriously talking about the matter they might choose to act before those weapons arrive and rule out something like a small-scale offensive. This could serve as a major spoiler and let the Russians chalk up one more operational victory to go along with Crimea, Ilovaisk, and Debaltseve. Therefore if the US actually wants to help and thinks the arms will make a difference, it would be a lot better if they would stop making ambiguous statements and hinting signals at Putin and just provide the missiles. Realistically, what Ukraine actually needs is more advanced electronic warfare platforms, but the rapid shipment and deployment of Javelins could at least prevent or deter a potential “now-or-never” offensive action from the Russian side.
> 
> Then again, you might choose to ignore Putin’s comments as another example of his increasingly delusional, rambling statements. After all, this is the guy who seems to have no idea whether he wants to run for president next spring, nor does he seem to have any idea what is supposed to come after him. Perhaps the real key to Putin’s statement is when he said Russia can’t do anything to influence America’s decision. Maybe the confidence from 2014 is beginning to wear off like a crystal meth high, and he’s starting to realize that all this time he’s been punching far above his weight (it’s easy when your opponents are all centrist dipshits who can’t fathom the idea that someone would question their so-called “norms of behavior”). Fatigue, desperation, belligerence? Who can say what’s going through that little man’s mind at this point?


----------



## The Bread Guy

And in case one doesn't trust UKR media's take, this from the official RUS info-machine transcript of Putin's talk with media on Ukraine this week ...


> ... *Question:* I have a question about eastern Ukraine. Kiev has recently started promoting the idea of deploying UN peacekeepers there. Poroshenko speaks about this often, and there is even a plan according to which the idea should be taken to the UN General Assembly, which opens soon, if Russia blocks it at the Security Council. What do you think about this idea? Is it practicable, would it help?
> 
> *Vladimir Putin:* This is impossible to do via the General Assembly, because UN peacekeepers cannot function other than pursuant to Security Council resolutions. But that is not the point.
> 
> You are saying that someone wants to push something through. In fact, I do not see anything wrong with that. I have already said many times that I support the idea of arming the OSCE mission, but the OSCE itself refuses to arm its field personnel, since it has neither the relevant people nor the experience of such work.
> 
> In this context, I believe that the presence of UN peacekeepers, not even peacekeepers, but those who provide security for the OSCE mission, is quite appropriate and I do not see anything wrong with that; on the contrary, I believe that this would help resolve the situation in southeastern Ukraine. Of course, we can talk only about ensuring the security of the OSCE staff. This is my first point.
> 
> The second point is that, in this regard, these forces should be located on the demarcation line only and on no other territories.
> 
> Thirdly, this issue should be resolved only after disengaging the parties and removing the heavy equipment. This cannot be resolved without direct contact with representatives of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic and Lugansk People's Republic.
> 
> I believe that if all this is done, it would definitely benefit resolving the situation in southeastern Ukraine. We will consider this as instructions to the Foreign Ministry to submit a relevant resolution to the Security Council.
> 
> *Question:* Continuing the theme of Ukraine. Recently, more reports have been coming from Washington regarding discussions to provide lethal weapons to Ukraine. How serious do you think this is? If, indeed, such a decision is made, what consequences might it have?
> 
> *Vladimir Putin:* It is the sovereign decision of the United States whom to sell arms to or whom to supply them to free of charge. They decide what countries will be recipients of such aid. We are unable to influence this process in any way. However, there are general international rules and approaches: the supply of weapons to a conflict zone is not conducive to peace, but only aggravates the situation.
> 
> If this happens in this situation, the action, or the decision, will not change the situation fundamentally. It will not affect the situation in any way for that matter. But the number of victims could, of course, increase. I want to underscore this to make it clear for everyone: nothing will change. The number of victims may increase, which is unfortunate.
> 
> There is one more thing that those who have such ideas should pay attention to: the self-proclaimed republics have enough weapons, including those seized from the opposing side, nationalist battalions, and so on.
> 
> If American weapons start coming to the conflict zone, it is difficult to say how the proclaimed republics would react to it. They may dispatch their weapons to other conflict zones that are sensitive to those who create problems for them ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

A bit of movement on Putin's part re:  where U.N. peacekeepers should go in eastern Ukraine - this from the Kremlin info-machine ...


> At the initiative of the German side, Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with Federal Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany Angela Merkel ... Vladimir Putin spoke in detail on the Russian initiative to establish a UN mission to aid the protection of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (OSCE SMM). Taking into account the views communicated by Angela Merkel, the Russian leader expressed readiness to add to the functions of the above-mentioned UN mission proposed in the Russian draft resolution of the Security Council.
> 
> The protection of OSCE observers by the UN is envisioned not only on the contact line after the disengagement of the forces and equipment of both sides, but also in other places where the OSCE SMM conducts its inspection visits in accordance with the Minsk Package of Measures.


Full statement also attached in case link doesn't work.


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR Prez's dropping by ...


> Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko during his visit to Canada on September 22 and September 23 could meet Canada’s leadership to discuss the role of the country in the negotiation process on settling the situation in Donbas, Ukrainian Ambassador to Canada Andriy Shevchenko has told Interfax-Ukraine.
> 
> “We are preparing for the president’s visit to Toronto. The president will come to support the Ukrainian team in the Invictus Games… We also hope that during the visit there would be an opportunity of holding official meetings with Canada’s leadership. We hope that the role of Canada in the negotiation process on settling the conflict with Russia and Canada’s support in our ambitions to move to NATO would be discussed,” ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Post-UKR-pres-PMJT statements, via the various info-machines - highlights mine in the following PMO info-machine statement...


> *Joint Statement by Prime Minister Trudeau and President Poroshenko*
> Toronto, Ontario
> September 22, 2017
> 
> The Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau, and the President of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, meeting today on the margins of the Invictus Games in Toronto, in which Ukrainian servicemen and women are participating for the first time, affirmed strong and enduring ties between Canada and Ukraine and their joint commitment to the continued deepening of bilateral relations.
> 
> “This year, as we celebrate the 25th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Canada and Ukraine, we reflect on the important milestones achieved since we last met in Kyiv in July 2016.
> 
> *Expanding Economic Opportunities*
> 
> “The entry into force of the Canada-Ukraine Free Trade Agreement (CUFTA) represents a historic moment in our bilateral relations. We are committed to working closely together to ensure that Canadians and Ukrainians alike can take advantage of the benefits of CUFTA as soon as possible.
> 
> “Through the implementation of this agreement, we are looking forward to boosting bilateral trade between Ukraine and Canada in agriculture, information technology, energy and aerospace. Under CUFTA’s two-year review clause, we will examine the possibility of extending CUFTA’s coverage to additional areas, such as services and investment.
> 
> *Enhancing Security Cooperation*
> 
> “Canada is unequivocal in its support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Canada reiterates its non-recognition of Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and continues to condemn Russian military aggression in Donbas. Canada is committed to maintaining pressure on Russia to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to implement fully its Minsk commitments, including through ongoing sanctions.
> 
> “Operation UNIFIER supports the important military training and capacity building efforts undertaken by Ukraine to maintain its sovereignty and security, while fostering a mutually-beneficial learning environment for both Canadian and Ukrainian Armed Forces.
> 
> “Canada will continue to support Ukraine’s progress towards Euro-Atlantic integration and to adopt and implement NATO standards through its ambitious agenda of reforms. Canada values Ukraine’s commitment to its relationship with NATO and its significant contributions to Allied operations. Against the backdrop of shared security challenges, we reaffirm our common interest in international peace through our bilateral Defence Cooperation Arrangement (DCA) and our shared commitment to advancing Ukraine’s defence reform agenda. Canada supports Ukraine’s goal of achieving NATO interoperability by 2020, providing both tactical training and strategic advice.
> 
> *Sharing Common Values*
> 
> “Canada shares a strong bond with Ukraine, rooted in generations of Ukrainian migration to Canada. We look forward to building on our strong people-to-people ties, including through the promotion of youth mobility, to forge new bonds between our countries for generations to come.
> 
> “We recognize the strong progress made in Ukraine’s reform efforts and the launch of Agenda 2020, as well as Canada’s contribution to that progress. Sustained effort will be critical to ensuring durable institutional transformation, unblocking obstacles to reform and unlocking Ukraine’s full potential. We are guided in our efforts and in our outlook by our shared commitment to the values of inclusivity and respect for diversity.”


... and, from the Ukrainian side ...


> *President: We are really interested in the experience of Canada’s peacekeeping activities*
> 23 September 2017 - 02:01
> 
> In the course of the negotiations with Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau, President Petro Poroshenko presented Ukraine’s vision on how the two countries could level up their security and defense partnership with new initiatives.
> 
> “Today I presented Ukraine’s vision on how we could level up our security and defense partnership with new initiatives,” Petro Poroshenko informed following the negotiations.
> 
> “Earlier this year, we signed the bilateral Defense Cooperation Arrangement, which facilitates our cooperation in the military sphere. Also this year, Canadian Government extended Operation UNIFIER, which provides for continued training by Canadian instructors of our Armed Forces,” the President noted.
> 
> “I believe that having such good basis, it is high time to move forward,” Petro Poroshenko said.
> 
> The President thanked the Prime Minister of Canada and the Canadian Government for a staunch and unwavering position in support of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity as we face the ongoing Russian aggression.
> 
> “Such principled position of our allies and partners, continued political and sanctions pressure, and such leadership on the international arena as shown by Canada is crucial for stopping the war waged by Moscow as it seeks to redraw Europe’s borders by force,” the Head of State emphasized.
> 
> According to Petro Poroshenko, with the G7 Presidency Canada could play even more important role in bringing peace and stability back to Ukraine and Europe. “We see the G7 platform also conducive to lead the efforts of an international group of friends of de-occupation of Crimea, I mentioned recently. I believe that Canada fits for that role very well, since Crimea is, first of all, about human rights and freedoms,” he stressed.
> 
> The President also believes that diplomatic efforts should be underpinned with strong Ukraine’s defense and economic resilience.
> 
> In his turn, Justin Trudeau noted that there are mechanisms to fulfill common tasks answering the question about military assistance. “We will stand forever with Ukraine in the struggle against the illegal aggression of Russia. We fight against it,” the Prime Minister emphasized.
> 
> He reminded that Canada helps with the instructors who train the Ukrainian military and share their experience.





> *President: Ukraine and Canada can level up security and defense partnership*
> 23 September 2017 - 01:19
> 
> In the course of the negotiations with Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau, President Petro Poroshenko presented Ukraine’s vision on how the two countries could level up their security and defense partnership with new initiatives.
> 
> “Today I presented Ukraine’s vision on how we could level up our security and defense partnership with new initiatives,” Petro Poroshenko informed following the negotiations.
> 
> “Earlier this year, we signed the bilateral Defense Cooperation Arrangement, which facilitates our cooperation in the military sphere. Also this year, Canadian Government extended Operation UNIFIER, which provides for continued training by Canadian instructors of our Armed Forces,” the President noted.
> 
> “I believe that having such good basis, it is high time to move forward,” Petro Poroshenko said.
> 
> The President thanked the Prime Minister of Canada and the Canadian Government for a staunch and unwavering position in support of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity as we face the ongoing Russian aggression.
> 
> “Such principled position of our allies and partners, continued political and sanctions pressure, and such leadership on the international arena as shown by Canada is crucial for stopping the war waged by Moscow as it seeks to redraw Europe’s borders by force,” the Head of State emphasized.
> 
> According to Petro Poroshenko, with the G7 Presidency Canada could play even more important role in bringing peace and stability back to Ukraine and Europe. “We see the G7 platform also conducive to lead the efforts of an international group of friends of de-occupation of Crimea, I mentioned recently. I believe that Canada fits for that role very well, since Crimea is, first of all, about human rights and freedoms,” he stressed.
> 
> The President also believes that diplomatic efforts should be underpinned with strong Ukraine’s defense and economic resilience.
> 
> In his turn, Justin Trudeau noted that there are mechanisms to fulfill common tasks answering the question about military assistance. “We will stand forever with Ukraine in the struggle against the illegal aggression of Russia. We fight against it,” the Prime Minister emphasized.
> 
> He reminded that Canada helps with the instructors who train the Ukrainian military and share their experience.


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> A bit of movement on Putin's part re:  where U.N. peacekeepers should go in eastern Ukraine ...


... aaaaaand, back to the "why do you need peacekeepers between the Russian-Ukrainian border?"

_*"Kremlin spokesman says no plans to deploy UN mission to Russian-Ukrainian border"*_ (TASS)
_*"UN Peacekeepers at Russia-Ukraine Border in Donbass ‘Off The Table’ – Kremlin"*_ (RIA Novosti)


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Russian volunteer veterans get no love  https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-gore-no-glory-for-war-veterans/28681378.html


----------



## The Bread Guy

Colin P said:
			
		

> Russian volunteer veterans get no love  https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-gore-no-glory-for-war-veterans/28681378.html


Well, if Russia says they don't have troops there (just "vacationing volunteers"), I guess the state's OK with letting these guys swing in the wind.  After all, who in the Duma's going object, right? *#WatchYourTea*

Meanwhile, MO' meetings for UKR's president in Canada (all via the UKR info-machine) ...

_*"President met with Minister of Foreign Affairs of Canada"*_
_*"President met with representatives of Canadian business in Toronto"*_
_*"President held a meeting with the Premier of Ontario"*_
_*"President held a meeting with the group of Canadian MPs"*_
... as well as alleged commitments from earlier meetings this past week:

_*“Justin Trudeau backs UN peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, but stops short of offering to join in”*_ (CBC.ca)
_*"Ukraine, Canada may improve security, defense partnership – Poroshenko"*_ (Unian, UKR media)
_*"Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says the Canadian government will place Ukraine on a list of countries to which it will permit certain weapons exports.*  Trudeau made the comments after a meeting with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Toronto on Friday.  Trudeau says the government has begun to move forward with the lengthy process that would see Ukraine added to the Automatic Firearms Country Control List ..."_ (The Canadian Press, via _Globe & Mail_)
_*"Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada is “moving forward” on changes to regulations that will allow the sale of automatic weapons and heavier military equipment to Ukraine, where Russian-backed fighters are in the midst of a conflict in the country’s east ..."*_ (VICE News)
_*"Canada wants to lift restrictions on arms exports to Ukraine – Canadian PM Trudeau"*_ (UKR media)
_*"Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Friday he was moving forward on adding Ukraine to the list of countries allowed to receive supplies of lethal weapons, according to local reports ..."*_ (RIA Novosti, RUS media)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Not looking good ...

_*"In Ukraine, a Huge Ammunition Depot Catches Fire"*_
_*"Fire alarms didn't work at Kalynivka arsenal, half of security equipment was missing"*_
_*"It will be difficult for Ukraine to compensate for ammo losses over last 2 years"*_
_*"Ukraine says ammo depot explosions huge blow to combat capability"*_
... but a possible opportunity for Canadian/British businesses?

_*"Canada may join the construction of an ammunition plant in Ukraine, according to the Minister of Defense, Stepan Poltorak, as indicated in a press briefing, RBC-Ukraine news agency reports ..."*_ (27 Sept 2017)
_*"Stiletto Systems, Canadian Magnum plans to build new ammunition facility in Ukraine"*_ (14 Aug 2017)
_*"British Stiletto Systems, Canadian MAGNUM ready to participate in tender to build new ammunition plant in Ukraine"*_ (7 Aug 2017)


----------



## The Bread Guy

The diaspora speaks ...


> *Ukrainian Canadian community wants Canada to lead U.N. peacekeeping mission in Ukraine*
> _By Christopher Guly / Special to The Ukrainian Weekly, 29 Sept 2017_
> 
> The national president of the Ukrainian Canadian Congress (UCC) has called on Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to take the lead in a United Nations peacekeeping mission in eastern Ukraine.
> 
> Following a September 22 meeting with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Toronto, Prime Minister Trudeau told reporters at a joint news conference with both leaders that a U.N. mission could ensure that “people are able to live their lives in peace and security in a way that upholds the principles of international law that, quite frankly, Russia violated with its illegitimate actions.”
> 
> But he did not commit Canadian troops to such an operation, which President Poroshenko has requested for the Donbas region since 2015.
> 
> The UCC not only wants Canadian peacekeepers in Ukraine, it hopes that Canada would direct the U.N. mission there.
> 
> “Canada has the experience and the history of peacekeeping and is best positioned to do this,” said UCC President Paul Grod, who raised the issue in a discussion with Prime Minister Trudeau and President Poroshenko following their meeting on the margins of the Invictus Games in Toronto, an international sporting competition for injured soldiers that both leaders attended.
> 
> Canadian involvement in U.N. peacekeeping missions is almost synonymous with the country’s identity, thanks in large part to a future Canadian prime minister, Lester B. Pearson, who won the Nobel Peace Prize for helping to resolve the Suez Crisis in 1956 through his idea of a peacekeeping force, which at the time also involved Canadian troops.
> 
> That history, along with today’s geopolitical reality, makes Canada better suited to lead a U.N. mission in Ukraine than the United States, France or Germany, said Mr. Grod.
> 
> “The Trump administration is very unpredictable in terms of where it’s going to be positioned vis-à-vis Russia, Ukraine and the rest of Europe, and is not in the best position to bring together a coordinated effort by the international community,” he said in an interview.
> 
> “France has the drive and the interest to move this forward, but I think Ukraine is probably pretty low on the foreign-policy list for the French.”
> 
> Mr. Grod explained that Germany will be preoccupied with domestic issues in at least the short term following the recent German election that has left re-elected Chancellor Angela Merkel scrambling to assemble a coalition to govern in light of a historic showing by the right-wing Alternative for Germany party.
> 
> “When you look at the other nations that could potentially take the lead on a U.N. peacekeeping mission, Canada – politically – is the most stable, has support for Ukraine from all political parties in Canada, and has the opportunity to bring peace to Ukraine,” Mr. Grod said ...


*More @ link*


----------



## McG

How do you lead a peacekeeping mission when you have been one of the outspoken sabre-rattlers for one of the belligerent faction?


----------



## Journeyman

A couple of conflictinG options have been proposed; an overview is provided here

Edit:  typo


----------



## The Bread Guy

MCG said:
			
		

> How do you lead a peacekeeping mission when you have been one of the outspoken sabre-rattlers for one of the belligerent faction?


I guess it makes as much sense as putting the peacekeepers between the rebels and Ukraine instead of between Ukraine and Russia.


----------



## Kat Stevens

MCG said:
			
		

> How do you lead a peacekeeping mission when you have been one of the outspoken sabre-rattlers for one of the belligerent faction?



We were two months into OP HARMONY Roto 0, when His Most Regal Stupidness PM Mulroney declared loudly and proudly that the Serbs were the bad guys of record. We were in Serbian held Vukovar at the time, and the vibe there became very hostile, very quickly.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Russia seizes 3 Ukrainian Warships, tensions highly charged


This could go bad very quick.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/25/europe/russia-ukraine-kerch-strait-intl/index.html


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:
			
		

> Russia seizes 3 Ukrainian Warships, tensions highly charged
> 
> 
> This could go bad very quick.
> 
> https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/25/europe/russia-ukraine-kerch-strait-intl/index.html



UKR Pres signs martial law decree, CAN condemns RUS response - more in a timeline here by independent RUS media.


----------



## Journeyman

There is a bit more info, including video footage, at NavalToday.com:  "Russia fires on, seizes three Ukrainian Navy ships in Sea of Azov dispute escalation."


----------



## Spencer100

You watch some of the action from the British angle in the HMS Duncan  

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/744673/royal-navy-hms-duncan-buzzed-17-russian-fighter-jets-crimea-ukraine


----------



## CBH99

Been reading a lot about how Ukraine has called emergency sessions and is on the verge of declaring martial law.

Question - how on earth does declaring martial law free your sailors & ships from Russian custody?


----------



## MilEME09

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/744945/Ukraine-crisis-russia-kerch-strait-crimea-black-sea-ships-seized

Martial law has already been declared, some are saying its a move to cancel presidential elections. In the mean time it looks like the west is trying to confirm the claim of a military build up.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Bumped with some of the latest signs from The Institute for the Study of War - their summary:


> *Key Takeaway*: Russia will likely escalate militarily against Ukraine imminently. Russia is setting military conditions to prepare its forces for open conflict with Ukraine. Russia is already creating the pretext to escalate by circulating the false narrative that Ukraine and the West are preparing imminent attacks, including a chemical weapons attack, in Eastern Ukraine. Russia may fabricate evidence of a chemical weapons attack – or may itself conduct a chemical weapons attack -- near Russia-backed areas of Ukraine to create chaos, justify the overt involvement of the Russian Armed Forces, and set conditions for future military operations. NATO’s inaction following Russia’s escalation in the Sea of Azov is likely emboldening Putin to continue challenging the West in Ukraine. NATO must reassess the threat that Russia poses to European security and the rules-based international order and respond decisively to deter an increasingly likely Russian military escalation in Ukraine itself.


op:

Latest on Op UNIFIER here.

_*Mod note:  moved latest Kerch Strait incident info here to keep all UKR stuff together.*_


----------



## MilEME09

http://amn.one/rpUCR0k

"“Russia may be preparing to fabricate or launch a chemical weapons attack in Ukraine in order to create a false pretext to escalate against Ukraine,” the ISW suggested. “Russia likely perceives the lack of a unified NATO response to Moscow’s aggression in the Sea of Azov as an opportunity to escalate against Ukraine and elsewhere in the future.”"

Well if this comes to pass and the west does nothing i give up on understanding where the red line is.


----------



## Journeyman

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> Well if this comes to pass and the west does nothing i give up on understanding where the red line is.


For whatever it's worth, Ukraine ceased seeking NATO membership in 2010;  Yanukovych chose to seek non-aligned status.  There is no legal obligation to come to their aid (given the circumstances, any number of responses are possible, but nothing is obligatory).  

Our troops there have even less trip-wire value than those in Latvia ... or Mali (which is a different cluster- )


----------



## MilEME09

I meant more the Chemical weapons use


----------



## Journeyman

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> I meant more the Chemical weapons use


Oh, like in Syria..... [hint: no response beyond minor, short-lived hand-wringing]


----------



## The Bread Guy

On a less pessimistic note, some reasons to believe RUS isn't going to invade UKR (again/more) right now 

(Generally) bad idea to start a war in the winter (although RUS's been more successful than most in that respect, playing defence, anyway)
Potential for mo', worse sanctions (as well as maybe more unity to keep/press harder by Europe)
Potential for increase in U.S. weapons aid to UKR & _possible_ mil response from "allies" of UKR
Potential big cost in blood/treasure - both the fighting as well as reconstructing afterwards
Could RUS stick out a guerilla war in UKR?


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Create border incidents, Russia responds with force, turns off gas in the winter to Europe, Russian troops move into pre-defined areas and hunker down in defense, all while the West struggles to deal with the political side and UN declarations.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Glass is 1/2 empty - maybe ...


> Russia continues to build up and prepare its military forces for possible offensive operations against Ukraine from the Crimean Peninsula and the east. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has been warning that Russia could conduct such operations at short notice since December 11, 2018. It remains impossible to assess whether Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to launch an offensive or will do so, or whether the visible military preparations are intended to pressure Ukraine and its partners without escalating to additional open conflict. The data suggests that Putin is preparing to attack, although alternative interpretations are possible ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Martial law's over (for now, at least), Russia's building its wall against Ukraine in Crimea (with fan-boy media saying it's the wild west on the Ukrainian side***), another Christmas ceasefire coming, and a Russian volunteer gets a posthumous medal from the pro-Russian rebels***.

*** - Original links to pro-Russian sites, so this link is to an archive.org version of the article to avoid any nasties coming down the wire to your computer.


----------



## The Bread Guy

In the words of a Putin parody account on Twitter, _"Propaganda 101: Accuse your enemy of that which you are guilty"_ ...

3 Dec 2018:  _"(Pro-RUS rebel) DPR intelligence: Ukrainian offensive will begin with chemical attack and provocations"_ (in Russian) ***

Fast forward to ...

13 Dec 2018:  _"DPR says Ukraine amassed chemicals at central Mariupol factory"_***
13 Dec 2018:  _"DPR urges UN, OSCE, ICRC to prevent chemical attack in Mariupol"_***
19 Dec 2018:  _"Is the U.S Planning a Chemical Weapons False Flag in the Donbass?"_***

19 Dec 2018:  _"Russian mass media spread fake about allegedly prepared chemical attack in Donbas"_ (UKR media)

Fast forward to ...

29 Dec 2018:  _"Ukraine has seen evidence of Russia preparing chemical weapons in Donbas"_ (Defence Blog)

29 Dec 2018:  _"Russia is Preparing to Employ Chemical Weapons in the Occupied Territory of Donbas"_ (UKR MoD Defence Intelligence site, in English)

*** - Original links to pro-Russian sites, so this link is to an archive.org version of the article to avoid any nasties coming down the wire to your computer.


----------



## 211RadOp

*Ukrainian court finds ex-president guilty of treason*

The Associated Press 
Published Thursday, January 24, 2019 7:23AM EST  

MINSK, Belarus -- A court in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv on Thursday found former President Viktor Yanukovych guilty of treason and helping Russia annex the Crimean peninsula.

The Kyiv court began reading out the verdict in Yanukovych's case, a process that is expected to take at least the whole day. The judge already declared Yanukovych guilty of treason and premeditated actions to alter the country's borders, and will rule later on the other charges.

...

Earlier in the trial, Yanukovych testified via video link from Moscow. His lawyer has said that the former president would not be able to follow the verdict because he is in hospital after sustaining injuries on a Moscow tennis court in November.

Prosecutors have asked the court to sentence Yanukovych to 15 years in prison.



https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/ukrainian-court-finds-ex-president-guilty-of-treason-1.4266978


----------



## The Bread Guy

Speaking of treason ...


> The Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office (PGO) has announced opening a criminal case under "high treason" in connection with damaging the military defense capability of the country as a result of actions taken by former officials at Ukraine's Defense Ministry, Member of Parliament (Petro Poroshenko Bloc) Ivan Vinnyk has said.
> 
> 'There was a discussion about whether the actions of previous ministers of defense did not contain elements of a crime that qualifies under Article 111 (high treason). From the letter that the National Security and Defense Committee (NSDC) received from the PGO, we learned that the case is being pursued under Part 1 of Article 111 (high treason)," Vinnyk said at a meeting of the parliament's temporary investigative commission he heads to study information about the facts about plundering Ukraine's Armed Forces and undermining Defense Ministry capabilities during 2004-2017.
> 
> Prosecutor General Yuriy Lutsenko on February 4, 2019, at a meeting of the commission said actions of the chiefs of the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces and defense ministers from 1991 to 2017 contributed to a decrease in the country's defense capability and could be qualified as acts of treason.


... and the latest on peacekeepers:

*"Poroshenko Wants UN To Move Ahead With Peacekeeping Mission In Eastern Ukraine"* (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, USA gov't funded media)
*"Poroshenko suggests sending UN technical assessment mission to Donbas to prepare for introduction of peacekeepers"* (UKR media)
*"Head of State: Peacekeepers under the auspices of the UN can become a decisive factor in establishing peace in Donbas"* (UKR President's info-machine)


----------



## The Bread Guy

BTW, "happy" anniversary Crimea ... (source)


----------



## The Bread Guy

First round of UKR pres elections appear to be headed for a second round run-off, with the incumbent trailing in initial results behind a comedian who played an accidental president on TV.  

Canadian & other election observers are calling the election fair & "competitive". 

Meanwhile, HMCS Toronto is parked in Odessa for a few days.


----------



## MilEME09

Oh look what got spotted by the OSCE. Pretty sure the rebels didnt just find modern jamming kit laying around.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> Oh look what got spotted by the OSCE. Pretty sure the rebels didnt just find modern jamming kit laying around.


Ukrainian Radio Shack clearance sale?


----------



## FJAG

> Three Russians and one Ukrainian to face MH17 murder charges
> Four named as first to be charged over death of 298 people on flight downed over Ukraine
> 
> Luke Harding Wed 19 Jun 2019 15.17 BST First published on Wed 19 Jun 2019 12.26 BST
> 
> Four suspects will face murder charges for the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, three of them Russians, international investigators have said, with a trial due to start next March in the Netherlands.
> 
> Almost five years after the plane was downed over eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 people onboard, prosecutors said on Wednesday there was enough evidence to bring criminal charges.
> 
> The suspects were named as Igor Girkin, a former colonel of Russia’s FSB spy service; Sergey Dubinskiy, employed by Russia’s GRU military intelligence agency; and Oleg Pulatov, a former soldier with the GRU’s special forces spetsnaz unit. All were Russian soldiers previously sent abroad.
> 
> A fourth suspect, Leonid Kharchenko, is a Ukrainian. He led a military combat unit in the city of Donetsk as a commander, it was alleged.
> 
> Girkin was minister of defence in the Moscow-backed Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR). He was the commander of the DNR when the plane was shot down on 17 July 2014. Dubinskiy served as Girkin’s deputy in the DNR, and Pulatov was Dubinskiy’s deputy. Kharchenko was under their command.
> 
> Investigators said the soldiers “formed a chain linking the DNR with the Russian Federation”. This link was how the separatists obtained heavy equipment from Russia including the Buk launcher, which was used to fire at MH17 with “terrible consequences”.
> 
> The accused did not “push the button” themselves but were responsible for bringing the anti-aircraft system to eastern Ukraine, it was alleged. They could therefore be held criminally liable for the murders of 298 people, investigators said, adding that international arrest warrants had been issued.
> 
> ...



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/19/mh17-criminal-charges-ukraine-russia

 :cheers:


----------



## Retired AF Guy

> Three Russians and one Ukrainian to face MH17 murder charges
> Four named as first to be charged over death of 298 people on flight downed over Ukraine
> 
> Luke Harding Wed 19 Jun 2019 15.17 BST First published on Wed 19 Jun 2019 12.26 BST
> 
> Four suspects will face murder charges for the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, three of them Russians, international investigators have said, with a trial due to start next March in the Netherlands.
> 
> Almost five years after the plane was downed over eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 people onboard, prosecutors said on Wednesday there was enough evidence to bring criminal charges.
> 
> The suspects were named as Igor Girkin, a former colonel of Russia’s FSB spy service; Sergey Dubinskiy, employed by Russia’s GRU military intelligence agency; and Oleg Pulatov, a former soldier with the GRU’s special forces spetsnaz unit. All were Russian soldiers previously sent abroad.
> 
> A fourth suspect, Leonid Kharchenko, is a Ukrainian. He led a military combat unit in the city of Donetsk as a commander, it was alleged.
> 
> Girkin was minister of defence in the Moscow-backed Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR). He was the commander of the DNR when the plane was shot down on 17 July 2014. Dubinskiy served as Girkin’s deputy in the DNR, and Pulatov was Dubinskiy’s deputy. Kharchenko was under their command.
> 
> Investigators said the soldiers “formed a chain linking the DNR with the Russian Federation”. This link was how the separatists obtained heavy equipment from Russia including the Buk launcher, which was used to fire at MH17 with “terrible consequences”.
> 
> The accused did not “push the button” themselves but were responsible for bringing the anti-aircraft system to eastern Ukraine, it was alleged. They could therefore be held criminally liable for the murders of 298 people, investigators said, adding that international arrest warrants had been issued.
> 
> ...
> 
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/19/mh17-criminal-charges-ukraine-russia
> 
> :cheers:



Bellingcat has a long and detailed article (89 pages) about the downing of the airliner and the people involved in its destruction:

 Identifying the Separatists Linked to the Downing of MH17


----------



## The Bread Guy

Stand by for chaff-like counter-narratives -- this from a Twitter cynic ...


----------



## FJAG

An interesting article/video on open source analysis of Russian participation in Ukrainian conflict.



> New evidence emerges of Russian role in Ukraine conflict
> Research group Forensic Architecture collected images to use in ECHR case
> 
> Newly collated evidence documenting Russian military involvement in the conflict in Ukraine will be used to bolster legal claims against the Russian state by Ukrainian volunteer fighters.
> 
> Forensic Architecture, a London-based research group, has collected and catalogued evidence of Russian military involvement in the battle of Ilovaysk in August 2014, including the presence of a model of tank used only by the Russian armed forces at that time.
> 
> The evidence will be appended to a case to be ruled on by the European court of human rights (ECHR) and will be released on a publicly viewable online platform on Monday.
> 
> The evidence includes numerous satellite images of Russian armed convoys inside Ukraine and multiple sightings of the T-72B3 tank, a new model which at the time of the battle was operated only by the Russian armed forces.
> 
> ...



See rest of article and video here:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/18/new-video-evidence-of-russian-tanks-in-ukraine-european-court-human-rights

 :cheers:


----------



## daftandbarmy

Wow  :nod:

After a Kerch Strait confrontation, the US beefs up Ukraine’s maritime forces

Following a December 2018 incident at the mouth of the Sea of Azov between Russia and Ukrainian forces, the United States has accelerated its assistance to Ukraine’s maritime forces.

The Kerch Strait became a flashpoint when Russian coast guard vessels first rammed a Ukrainian tugboat, then later fired on two accompanying gunboats, attempting to transit the strait. The incident resulted in 24 Ukrainian service members, along with their three boats, being taken into Russian custody. Both the sailors and boats were returned to Ukraine last fall after months in Russia.

In June, the U.S. State Department announced it had approved the sale of up to 16 Mark VI Patrol Boats to Ukraine. The Mark VI is the same heavily armed boat used by the U.S. Navy’s Riverines. The U.S. version packs two stabilized, remote-operated, optically guided MK 50, .50-caliber Gun Weapon Systems; two MK 38 Mod 2 (25mm) Gun Weapon Systems (also remotely operated with an advanced optics system); and two crew-served .50-caliber machine guns.

The boat can sustain a firefight for up to 45 minutes, an operator told Defense News in 2019. The deal is worth about $600 million. The sale includes 32 MSI Seahawk A2 gun systems; 20 electro-optic/infrared radar, or FLIR systems; 16 Long Range Acoustic Device 5-kilometer range loudspeaker systems; 16 identification, friend or foe systems; 40 MK44 30mm cannons; and unspecified communications and support equipment.

https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2020/07/02/after-the-kerch-strait-confrontation-the-us-moves-to-beef-up-ukraines-maritime-forces/


----------



## MilEME09

Glad to see this, the Ukrainian Navy needs all the help it can get, they lost a lot when Russia took Crimea from my understanding. Now if only we can get them some heavier ships. 

If it were upto me, I'd accelerate our own CSC program and possibly a Kingston Replacement program. Then once boats are in the water sell the old ones to Ukraine. However this is my non-expert opinion I haven't been keeping up with Ukrainian events for a few months.


----------



## GR66

Defence Blog is reporting that both Belarus and Russia have deployed troops to their borders with Ukraine.

Belarus deploys troops to border with Ukraine

I'd think this would be a fairly costly show of force by Lukashenko in light of ongoing internal protests and dealing with COVID-19.  Also seems to be coordinated with a similar Russian build up and increased separatist activity.

Russia confirms deployment of its troops near Ukrainian border


----------



## MilEME09

GR66 said:


> Defence Blog is reporting that both Belarus and Russia have deployed troops to their borders with Ukraine.
> 
> Belarus deploys troops to border with Ukraine
> 
> I'd think this would be a fairly costly show of force by Lukashenko in light of ongoing internal protests and dealing with COVID-19.  Also seems to be coordinated with a similar Russian build up and increased separatist activity.
> 
> Russia confirms deployment of its troops near Ukrainian border


US European command has raised its alert level, Russian troops haven't gone home after Ex. I am willing to bet this is either Saber rattling or prelude to a new offensive. Ukraine has been retooling its armed forces as fast as it can, how well they will do in a conventional fight compared to 2014 is any ones guess.


----------



## MilEME09

Ukraine's envoy on Russia's build-up: Either joining NATO or restoring nuclear status
					

Melnyk says Ukraine's accession to NATO is the only way to prevent a military attack from Russia.




					www.unian.info
				




Ukraine playing hard ball now, either allow them to join NATO or nuclear rearmermant is on the table.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> Ukraine's envoy on Russia's build-up: Either joining NATO or restoring nuclear status
> 
> 
> Melnyk says Ukraine's accession to NATO is the only way to prevent a military attack from Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.unian.info
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine playing hard ball now, either allow them to join NATO or nuclear rearmermant is on the table.


Both Taiwan and Ukraine should have nukes.


----------



## Weinie

Altair said:


> Both Taiwan and Ukraine should have nukes.


Pour encourager (or discourage) les autres.


----------



## Altair

Weinie said:


> Pour encourager (or discourage) les autres.


Yeah, it's more and more clear that the west doesn't have the stomach to back up their words with actions in regards to defending Ukraine and Taiwan, and if push comes to shove, China and Russia will only face (limited) sanctions.

Hong Kong and Crimea should make it absolutely clear, Ukraine and Taiwan are on their own, and should just go and get the bomb in order to properly defend themselves.


----------



## MilEME09

Diane Francis: Ukraine — the line in the sand in the new Cold War
					

Tensions have eased for the moment, but the country is not out of the woods yet




					nationalpost.com
				




Good break down if the situation now as Ukraine because this cold wars Germany


----------



## daftandbarmy

I'm guessing that they were rehearsing the parade wearing the equivalent of their 'DEU' footwear, perhaps to break them in, but wearing more comfortable clothing...


*Ukraine army under fire for making female cadets march in heels*

Ukraine‘s defence minister is trying to walk back plans for female cadets to march in heels during independence day celebrations next month after critics called for him to kick the idea to the curb.

Defence Minister Andriy Taran had initially planned for the women to march in black pumps with heels for the parade on Aug. 24, which will mark 30 years since Ukraine declared its independence from the Soviet Union.

Social media users and several government officials have lambasted the idea, calling it outdated, sexist and insulting. Some even called for Taran to walk a mile in their shoes — or in this case, heels — at the parade.









						Ukraine army under fire for making female cadets march in heels - National | Globalnews.ca
					

Ukraine has been preparing dozens of women to march in heels for its independence day parade.




					globalnews.ca


----------



## MilEME09

Inside Modern Trench Warfare in Eastern Ukraine
					

Seven years later, the war in eastern Ukraine is far from over — on the front line, daily shelling, as well as sniper and drone attacks, continue to kill.




					coffeeordie.com
				




if anyone wants a long read, a good look at the current state of fighting in ukraine.


----------



## Czech_pivo

*Canada may send CF-18 fighters to Ukraine amid Russian troop buildup*









						Canada may send CF-18 fighters to Ukraine amid Russian troop buildup
					

Canadian Government is considering deployment of its troops in Ukraine to warn off a renewed invasion threat from Russian forces. On November 24, The Globe and Mail reported that Canada is considering larger deployments to Ukraine, including deploying hundreds of additional troops to support the...




					defence-blog.com
				




Posting this in the CF-188 replacement thread as well.


----------



## Czech_pivo

*Canada may send CF-18 fighters to Ukraine amid Russian troop buildup









						Canada may send CF-18 fighters to Ukraine amid Russian troop buildup
					

Canadian Government is considering deployment of its troops in Ukraine to warn off a renewed invasion threat from Russian forces. On November 24, The Globe and Mail reported that Canada is considering larger deployments to Ukraine, including deploying hundreds of additional troops to support the...




					defence-blog.com
				




"redeploying some of the CF-18 fighter jets currently based in Romania."

I thought that we had a total of 6 planes in Romania so I'm kind of wondering on how we would split these 6 between Romania and the Ukraine, 3 and 3, 2 and 4, 4 and 2?  I mean, seriously, sending 2 or 4 planes to Ukraine does what exactly?  Please don't tell me that it gets us to sit with the Adults and not at the kiddie table. *


----------



## The Bread Guy

More from the Globe (archived here):


> Canada is considering bolstering its military mission to Ukraine, amid a debate over whether additional NATO forces would deter Russian President Vladimir Putin from further aggression against his country’s neighbour.
> 
> Two sources with knowledge of the deliberations said Defence Minister Anita Anand is considering deploying hundreds of additional troops to support the Canadian soldiers already in Ukraine on a training mission. Other options being looked at include moving a warship into the Black Sea, or redeploying some of the CF-18 fighter jets based in Romania.
> 
> Any reinforcement would be intended as a message to Mr. Putin, who has raised alarm for the second time this year by amassing troops and equipment near his country’s borders with Ukraine. Videos posted online show thousands of battlefield weapons – including tanks, armoured personnel carriers and multiple-launch rocket systems – being moved toward Ukraine from their regular bases in other parts of Russia ...


Also shared in the OP UNIFIER thread here.


----------



## dimsum

Czech_pivo said:


> *I mean, seriously, sending 2 or 4 planes to Ukraine does what exactly?  Please don't tell me that it gets us to sit with the Adults and not at the kiddie table. *


Only being a little facetious, what's the diff between 4 and 6?


----------



## Czech_pivo

dimsum said:


> Only being a little facetious, what's the diff between 4 and 6?


The article talks about redeploying 'some' of the planes, so I assume that we wouldn't send all 6, only a portion of them.


----------



## dapaterson

dimsum said:


> Only being a little facetious, what's the diff between 4 and 6?


Two.


----------



## dimsum

dapaterson said:


> Two.


Oh you and your "math".


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> *Canada may send CF-18 fighters to Ukraine amid Russian troop buildup*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada may send CF-18 fighters to Ukraine amid Russian troop buildup
> 
> 
> Canadian Government is considering deployment of its troops in Ukraine to warn off a renewed invasion threat from Russian forces. On November 24, The Globe and Mail reported that Canada is considering larger deployments to Ukraine, including deploying hundreds of additional troops to support the...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> defence-blog.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Posting this in the CF-188 replacement thread as well.


I thought we don't just whip out our F-18s these days? I guess things change after 6 years


----------



## SeaKingTacco

dimsum said:


> Oh you and your "math".


I was told that there would be no math at Army.ca…


----------



## MilEME09

SeaKingTacco said:


> I was told that there would be no math at Army.ca…


It confuses the infantry, so we try not too, In all seriousness, moving these planes from Romania to Ukraine does what? other than being symbolic? being in ukraine means about right from take off they are likely being tracked by Russian AA unit's on donbas. Keeping them in Romania is strategically smarter, but this moves seems more political.


----------



## dimsum

MilEME09 said:


> but this moves seems more political.


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> It confuses the infantry, so we try not too, In all seriousness, moving these planes from Romania to Ukraine does what? other than being symbolic? being in ukraine means about right from take off they are likely being tracked by Russian AA unit's on donbas. Keeping them in Romania is strategically smarter, but this moves seems more political.


Very true, but Romania = NATO and moving them to Ukraine does not.   I've no doubt that if they moved them they would be stationed at the Ukraine's most western airfield, somewhere west of Lvov. But even there they would be tracked by Russian AA in Moldova (Transnistria) and Belarus well before the AA units in The Donbass even knew they were in the air.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Czech_pivo said:


> Very true, but Romania = NATO and moving them to Ukraine does not.   I've no doubt that if they moved them they would be stationed at the Ukraine's most western airfield, somewhere west of Lvov. But even there they would be tracked by Russian AA in Moldova (Transnistria) and Belarus well before the AA units in The Donbass even knew they were in the air.



Kaliningrad is also not to far on the Western Flank of Ukraine. even if they're not in Gun sights, they have EW and Radar at their disposal that can make life hard for our token contribution.


----------



## CBH99

That’s my question too… what does this accomplish?  Does this help us ‘pull our weight’?

In terms of the Ukraine mission, are we currently considered by some to not be pulling our weight?  

If not, what does pulling our weight look like?  🤷🏼‍♂️


----------



## GR66

Such a small number may be symbolic only, but IF Russia were planning an invasion of Ukraine the presence of NATO troops and aircraft could complicate any plans the Russians may have to launch a first strike against airfields to eliminate the Ukrainian Air Force.  NATO casualties would mean a higher risk of direct Western military response to an invasion than Ukrainian only casualties.


----------



## OldSolduer

MilEME09 said:


> It confuses the infantry, so we try not too,


fuckin excuse me? Just because we eat crayons doesn't mean we can't do math.....


----------



## Weinie

OldSolduer said:


> fuckin excuse me? Just because we eat crayons doesn't mean we can't do math.....


Because it is important to know how many crayons you have eaten. Wouldn’t want to over-indulge.


----------



## Czech_pivo

GR66 said:


> Such a small number may be symbolic only, but IF Russia were planning an invasion of Ukraine the presence of NATO troops and aircraft could complicate any plans the Russians may have to launch a first strike against airfields to eliminate the Ukrainian Air Force.  NATO casualties would mean a higher risk of direct Western military response to an invasion than Ukrainian only casualties.


The Ukraine is a large country west-east and loyalties can be fluid in certain parts of the country when progressing from west to east.

The Russians would love to have all of the Ukraine back in its fold but it realises that it can only chew, swallow and digest small pieces of it at a time. Thus it would most likely focus on consolidating its gains in and around The Donbass and then on the area around Mariupol and Melitopol in order to have a proper land bridge to the Crimea.  As much as they like to think the new bridge that connects Russia to the Crimea has been a success, it really has not. They need a proper land corridor to it to best provide proper services (water/gas/electricity/etc).  If all went well for them, they would try and push on further west to Kherson, on the west bank of the Dnieper, effectively cutting the Ukrainians main trade access to the Black Sea.  This would then make the Ukrainians hold on Odessa (last main port) almost impossible, pressured from the east by the Russians newly invested at Kherson and the existing Russian army at Tiraspol in Transnistria.  The loss of their access to the Black Sea (and Odessa if that occurred) would pretty much lead to Ukrainians throwing out the existing government and quite possibly breaking into a much large civil war or installing a new leader who is pro-Kremlin.
Something of this nature has the potential for some of the countries in that area to be looking to regain territory lost to them after 1945 (Poland, with its current right-wing Nationalist government, its former eastern territories, mainly eastern Galicia and its former capital Lvov, maybe even Tarnopol, possibly the Slovaks looking to regain Uzhhorod and Ruthenia, the Romanians with Moldova). It would make 1990-95 Yugoslavia look benign.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MOD NOTE:  Brought all the UKR stuff into the UKR thread (not into OP Unifier thread until any jets become part of that op) from the CF18 thread which now has its own news to chew on ....


Czech_pivo said:


> The Ukraine is a large country west-east and loyalties can be fluid in certain parts of the country when progressing from west to east.
> 
> The Russians would love to have all of the Ukraine back in its fold but it realises that it can only chew, swallow and digest small pieces of it at a time....


Considering how much it would cost Russia to maintain even a Russia-level of life standard in the areas it occupies, I don't know if Vlad's chequebook is quite strong enough right now.


Czech_pivo said:


> .... The loss of their access to the Black Sea (and Odessa if that occurred) would pretty much lead to Ukrainians throwing out the existing government and quite possibly breaking into a much large civil war or installing a new leader who is pro-Kremlin ...


... assuming, of course, that the remaining Ukrainians not under Russian occupation would be inclined to vote pro-Russia, which I don't think they'd be likely to do.


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> MOD NOTE:  Brought all the UKR stuff into the UKR thread (not into OP Unifier thread until any jets become part of that op) from the CF18 thread which now has its own news to chew on ....
> 
> Considering how much it would cost Russia to maintain even a Russia-level of life standard in the areas it occupies, I don't know if Vlad's chequebook is quite strong enough right now.
> 
> ... assuming, of course, that the remaining Ukrainians not under Russian occupation would be inclined to vote pro-Russia, which I don't think they'd be likely to do.


The average Ukrainian, they want a strong leader, order, stability and a paycheck - that's pretty much it.  Its the elites in Lvov and Kiev and maybe Odessa and Kharkov who want stronger ties to the West/EU. So, if someone comes along and gives them the 4 things I mentioned earlier and they happen to be more aligned with the Kremlin, the majority won't care.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> The average Ukrainian, they want a strong leader, order, stability and a paycheck - that's pretty much it.  Its the elites in Lvov and Kiev and maybe Odessa and Kharkov who want stronger ties to the West/EU. So, if someone comes along and gives them the 4 things I mentioned earlier and they happen to be more aligned with the Kremlin, the majority won't care.


True - it would depend on how much of Ukraine would be left unoccupied and what the preferences are in those areas.  

If the Russians were crazy enough to push as far west as they could, the remaining Ukrainians in unoccupied Ukraine may not be so keen to elect a Russian-y leader.  May even double down on pro-West, given their new neighbour.


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> True - it would depend on how much of Ukraine would be left unoccupied and what the preferences are in those areas.
> 
> If the Russians were crazy enough to push as far west as they could, the remaining Ukrainians in unoccupied Ukraine may not be so keen to elect a Russian-y leader.  May even double down on pro-West, given their new neighbour.


Yes, true, but if Kiev is gone, then the rest of the country is not viable. The Poles would be clambering for Lvov and area to be returned to them. 

There is still some smoldering embers of Religious tensions in that area. Catholic Poles vs Orthodox Ukrainians with the Greek Catholic Ukrainians caught in the middle. 

If we didn't fully understand the religious/historical angle of the civil war in Yugoslavia, then we will have difficulty understand these same issues in that area of Europe.  Many a Pole still longs for the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and its vast territory to be resurrected.


----------



## OldSolduer

Weinie said:


> Because it is important to know how many crayons you have eaten. Wouldn’t want to over-indulge.



Fucking exactly, and excuse the swearing. The RSM in me hasn’t left.

BTW that’s a great response 👍🏻


----------



## The Bread Guy

Glass is half full:  *"NATO chief warns Russia of 'costs' if it moves on Ukraine"* (Associated Press)
Glass is half empty:  _*"Principles of collective defense do not apply to Ukraine,- Stoltenberg*__ -- At the same time, the alliance supports Ukraine ..."_ (UKR media)


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> Glass is half full:  *"NATO chief warns Russia of 'costs' if it moves on Ukraine"* (Associated Press)
> Glass is half empty:  _*"Principles of collective defense do not apply to Ukraine,- Stoltenberg*__ -- At the same time, the alliance supports Ukraine ..."_ (UKR media)


First link is broken


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> First link is broken


Fixed - thanks for that!


----------



## armrdsoul77

Russian Air Defense Missile Systems Spotted Moving Closer To Ukraine


----------



## daftandbarmy

Czech_pivo said:


> Yes, true, but if Kiev is gone, then the rest of the country is not viable. The Poles would be clambering for Lvov and area to be returned to them.
> 
> There is still some smoldering embers of Religious tensions in that area. Catholic Poles vs Orthodox Ukrainians with the Greek Catholic Ukrainians caught in the middle.
> 
> If we didn't fully understand the religious/historical angle of the civil war in Yugoslavia, then we will have difficulty understand these same issues in that area of Europe.  Many a Pole still longs for the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and its vast territory to be resurrected.



Why fight your way into Kiev via a frontal assault when you can sneak in the back door via Transnistria? If you're going to 'Balkan', you need to Balkan like a Boss-ski 

*Transnistria*, officially the *Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic* (*PMR*),https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria#cite_note-10* is an unrecognised breakaway state located in the narrow strip of land between the river Dniester and the Moldovan–Ukrainian border that is internationally recognised as part of Moldova. Its capital and largest city is Tiraspol. Transnistria has been recognised by only three other unrecognised or partially recognised breakaway states: Abkhazia, Artsakh, and South Ossetia.[9] Transnistria is designated by the Republic of Moldova as the Administrative-Territorial Units of the Left Bank of the Dniester (Romanian: Unitățile Administrativ-Teritoriale din stînga Nistrului),[10] or Stînga Nistrului ("Left Bank of the Dniester").[11][12][13]

The region's origins can be traced to the Moldavian Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic which was formed in 1924 within the Ukrainian SSR. During World War II, the Soviet Union took parts of the Moldavian ASSR, which was dissolved, and of the Kingdom of Romania's Bessarabia to form the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1940. The present history of the region dates to 1990, amidst the disintegration of the Soviet Union, when the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic was established in hopes that it would remain within the Soviet Union should Moldova seek unification with Romania or independence, the latter occurring in August 1991. Shortly afterwards, a military conflict between the two parties started in March 1992 and was concluded by a ceasefire in July of the same year.









						Transnistria - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				



*


----------



## Czech_pivo

armrdsoul77 said:


> Russian Air Defense Missile Systems Spotted Moving Closer To Ukraine
> View attachment 67594


Not sure what this pic is supposed to portray as it’s clearly not the first or second week of December in western Russia in this pic.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Probably asked someone "google SA 11 GADFLY and get me a good still of it"!

Not the first time it's been used, either....



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh17-faq-surface-to-air-missiles-1.2711697


----------



## MilEME09

Litige sur l’approvisionnement  | Moscou gêné par un jugement évoquant des troupes russes en Ukraine
					

Une décision de justice mentionnant la présence de troupes russes dans les régions séparatistes en guerre dans l’est de l’Ukraine a mis jeudi dans l’embarras le Kremlin, qui a évoqué une « erreur » du tribunal.




					www.lapresse.ca
				




Russian courts accidently say Russian troops are in Ukraine. Ooops


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> Litige sur l’approvisionnement  | Moscou gêné par un jugement évoquant des troupes russes en Ukraine
> 
> 
> Une décision de justice mentionnant la présence de troupes russes dans les régions séparatistes en guerre dans l’est de l’Ukraine a mis jeudi dans l’embarras le Kremlin, qui a évoqué une « erreur » du tribunal.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.lapresse.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian courts accidently say Russian troops are in Ukraine. Ooops


Someone just bought themselves a one-way ticket to a Gulag in the Kolyma. Lovely this time of year.


----------



## The Bread Guy

China:  What Russia said ...


> Russian officials say Chinese President Xi Jinping supports Russia’s campaign to stop the expansion of the NATO alliance to the east.
> 
> Xi spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday by video call. Putin’s foreign policy advisor Yuri Ushakov said Putin spoke about “threats to Russia’s national interests from the U.S. and the NATO *bloc*.” He said they continually move military weapons and structures close to Russia’s borders.
> 
> Russian officials said Putin also told Xi about his recent talk with U.S. President Joe Biden.
> 
> Putin has been demanding guarantees that NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, will not expand to Ukraine or to deploy troops or weapons there. In recent weeks, however, Western nations have made diplomatic efforts to prevent a possible invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Russia has denied it has such plans. But thousands of Russian troops are reportedly deployed on Russia’s border with Ukraine.
> 
> The Russian leader told Xi that there was a need to hold talks with NATO and the United States to negotiate security guarantees ...


... Russia:  here you go, then


> The Kremlin said Thursday that Russia submitted draft documents outlining security arrangements it wants to negotiate with the United States and its NATO allies amid s piraling tensions over Ukraine.
> 
> Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said a senior Russian envoy stood ready to immediately depart for talks in a neutral country on the proposal.
> 
> Peskov told reporters that Russian President Vladimir Putin may have another call with U.S. President Joe Biden before the year’s end to discuss the security issue, but he said it hasn’t been agreed to yet.
> 
> In a video call with Putin last week, Biden voiced concern about a buildup of Russian troops near Ukraine and warned him that Russia would face “severe consequences” if Moscow attacked its neighbor.
> 
> Putin has denied plans  of launching an invasion and reversed the conversation by prodding Western leaders to provide legally binding guarantees precluding NATO’s expansion to Ukraine and the deployment of the alliance’s weapons there, calling such actions a “red line” for Moscow ...


----------



## KevinB

Same stuff different source








						Russia hands draft security pacts to US, expects quick talks
					

Moscow’s proposals were passed on to U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Karen Donfried.




					www.armytimes.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

Some interesting news just out from the Polish/Belarus border area.

Polish soldier reportedly crosses border into Belarus claiming asylum​








						Polish soldier reportedly crosses border into Belarus claiming asylum
					

The Belarusian authorities claim the soldier fled because he disagrees with Poland's border policies and treatment of refugees.




					notesfrompoland.com
				




EDIT - I'm also adding in this article.  It will give you all a sense of the inter-connectivity that is occurring between Poland and Ukraine.  Similar numbers for certain exist in the Czech Republic (I know this from first hand experience when I used to work/live there) and in Slovakia.

Number of Ukrainians With Valid Residence Permits in Poland Surpasses 300,000









						Number of Ukrainians With Valid Residence Permits in Poland Surpasses 300,000 - SchengenVisaInfo.com
					

The number of Ukrainians who hold a valid residence permit in Poland has surpassed 300,000, based on the figures provided by the Polish Office for Foreigners. According to the figures published by the same source, there has been a significant increase in the number of Ukrainians in Poland, since...



					www.schengenvisainfo.com


----------



## MilEME09

Report: Putin defies Biden, sends more Russian troops to Ukraine border
					

Russia is reportedly sending even more troops to its border with Ukraine, even after President Joe Biden warned Russian President Vladimir Putin that the




					americanmilitarynews.com
				




Satellite images spot an additional 6 Battalion tactical groups heading for Ukraine. Each of these are approximately 900 personal, and self sufficient.


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> Report: Putin defies Biden, sends more Russian troops to Ukraine border
> 
> 
> Russia is reportedly sending even more troops to its border with Ukraine, even after President Joe Biden warned Russian President Vladimir Putin that the
> 
> 
> 
> 
> americanmilitarynews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Satellite images spot an additional 6 Battalion tactical groups heading for Ukraine. Each of these are approximately 900 personal, and self sufficient.



This was a good observation I thought:

“The whole world now knows that there is a war in Ukraine,” said Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s national security and defense council.
“Before this, everyone thought that everything is fine here, but, in fact, the hot phase of war with Russia never stopped,” he added. “It’s basically been going on since February 2014.”



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/19/russia-ukraine-front-fighting/


----------



## CBH99

daftandbarmy said:


> This was a good observation I thought:
> 
> “The whole world now knows that there is a war in Ukraine,” said Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s national security and defense council.
> “Before this, everyone thought that everything is fine here, but, in fact, the hot phase of war with Russia never stopped,” he added. “It’s basically been going on since February 2014.”
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/19/russia-ukraine-front-fighting/


I’m pretty sure everybody knew there was a war happening in Ukraine against Russia.  I don’t many people thought “Everything is fine…”

If they did, what rock were they living under?


----------



## MilEME09

Russian state TV warns US 'will be turned to radioactive ash' over Ukraine moves
					

A Russian state television host threatened on Sunday that the U.S. could be "reduced to radioactive ash" if it does not meet the demands laid out by




					americanmilitarynews.com
				




Someone is drinking too much cool aid in Moscow....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Food for thought:  as long as NATO _says_ they'll help, but don't _really_, and doesn't do anything to let Ukraine into NATO, does Russia even need to invade?


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> Russian state TV warns US 'will be turned to radioactive ash' over Ukraine moves
> 
> 
> A Russian state television host threatened on Sunday that the U.S. could be "reduced to radioactive ash" if it does not meet the demands laid out by
> 
> 
> 
> 
> americanmilitarynews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Someone is drinking too much cool aid in Moscow....


If there were ever any tapes of the conversations between Bush/Clinton and Yeltsin where they had a 'gentleman's' agreement in which the former Warsaw Pact countries (minus E. Germany) were to become little 'Finlands' between Russia and NATO in the Russians hands and they decided to release them, now would be a good time. 
Would completely discredit NATO, would piss off the former Warsaw Pact countries and would create more uncertainty within the Baltics and Ukraine.  Even if the tapes were fake and created by the FSB it would create havoc.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> If there were ever any tapes of the conversations between Bush/Clinton and Yeltsin where they had a 'gentleman's' agreement in which the former Warsaw Pact countries (minus E. Germany) were to become little 'Finlands' between Russia and NATO in the Russians hands and they decided to release them, now would be a good time.
> Would completely discredit NATO, would piss off the former Warsaw Pact countries and would create more uncertainty within the Baltics and Ukraine.  Even if the tapes were fake and created by the FSB it would create havoc.


Don't give them ideas


----------



## Good2Golf

“Putin was asked where the tapes came from, and he said they were from government archives, and most definitely not fabricated based on the recent recommendation of a Canadian military think tank…”


----------



## MilEME09

Report: Russia now has 265,000 troops near Ukraine border
					

Russia now has about 265,000 troops stationed within 250 miles of its border with Ukraine, according to a new assessment of troop movements by Ukrainian




					americanmilitarynews.com
				




265k Russian troops now stationed within 400km of the Ukrainian Border. Play book rolling out the same as in 2014 with a heavy info war as a precursor to invasion.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> Report: Russia now has 265,000 troops near Ukraine border
> 
> 
> Russia now has about 265,000 troops stationed within 250 miles of its border with Ukraine, according to a new assessment of troop movements by Ukrainian
> 
> 
> 
> 
> americanmilitarynews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 265k Russian troops now stationed within 400km of the Ukrainian Border. Play book rolling out the same as in 2014 with a heavy info war as a precursor to invasion.


And still some time to go until February and the Olympics.


----------



## Infanteer

Is there a better news source than this website with an overabundance of pop-up ads?


----------



## MilEME09

Infanteer said:


> Is there a better news source than this website with an overabundance of pop-up ads?











						NSDC secretary says 122,000 Russian troops massed near Ukraine border
					

There are 122,000 Russian servicemen deployed at a 200-km distance to the borders of Ukraine, as well as another 143,500 at a distance of 400 km. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				








__





						Redirect Notice
					





					www.google.com
				




Ask and we shall deliver


----------



## Czech_pivo

Good2Golf said:


> “Putin was asked where the tapes came from, and he said they were from government archives, and most definitely not fabricated based on the recent recommendation of a Canadian military think tank…”


Madeleine Albright was the whisperer in Clinton's ear to add the Visegrad 4 into NATO.  She had Czech roots.


----------



## suffolkowner

It sure looks like Russia is planning on throwing everything at Ukraine. Pretty much everything they have at least in European Russia. The combined Western and Southern Military Districts have 250,000 troops and

123 T90's
196 T80's
667 T72's
*986 total tanks*

457 BMP3's
603 BMP2's
865 BTR's
866 MT-LB's
*2791 total AFV's

623 self-propelled artillery over 120mm*

versus Ukraines 200,000 troops and

480 T80's
700 T64's
300 T72's
*1480 total tanks*

1000 BMP2's
1000 BMP1's
500 BTR's
*2500 total AFV's

over 700 self-propelled artillery over 120mm*

It will be interesting to see how Ukraine is able to counter the Russians if they invade, they have been pumping out domestic manpads and anti-tank missiles but still lack in air defence and have a very limited air force. Too bad that NATO has refused to help with this. A 100 F-16's and some modern air defence systems like NASAAMS might change the Russian attitude.

* Russian numbers in particular are taken from Rands Russia's Limit of Advance


----------



## daftandbarmy

suffolkowner said:


> It sure looks like Russia is planning on throwing everything at Ukraine. Pretty much everything they have at least in European Russia. The combined Western and Southern Military Districts have 250,000 troops and
> 
> 123 T90's
> 196 T80's
> 667 T72's
> *986 total tanks*
> 
> 457 BMP3's
> 603 BMP2's
> 865 BTR's
> 866 MT-LB's
> *2791 total AFV's
> 
> 623 self-propelled artillery over 120mm*
> 
> versus Ukraines 200,000 troops and
> 
> 480 T80's
> 700 T64's
> 300 T72's
> *1480 total tanks*
> 
> 1000 BMP2's
> 1000 BMP1's
> 500 BTR's
> *2500 total AFV's
> 
> over 700 self-propelled artillery over 120mm*
> 
> It will be interesting to see how Ukraine is able to counter the Russians if they invade, they have been pumping out domestic manpads and anti-tank missiles but still lack in air defence and have a very limited air force. Too bad that NATO has refused to help with this. A 100 F-16's and some modern air defence systems like NASAAMS might change the Russian attitude.
> 
> * Russian numbers in particular are taken from Rands Russia's Limit of Advance



Bohica....


The next Russian invasion of Ukraine will be too big to hide, and Russia doesn’t care​
No 'Little Green Men' this time.


The Kremlin is making it clear that Russian forces could soon push deeper into Ukraine, and this time it may look more like the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan than the covert campaign Russia has waged since 2014.









						The next Russian invasion of Ukraine will be too big to hide, and Russia doesn't care
					

'Little Green Men from 2014 seems almost cartoonish now compared to what I expect we’ll see.'




					taskandpurpose.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

th


suffolkowner said:


> It sure looks like Russia is planning on throwing everything at Ukraine. Pretty much everything they have at least in European Russia. The combined Western and Southern Military Districts have 250,000 troops and
> 
> 123 T90's
> 196 T80's
> 667 T72's
> *986 total tanks*
> 
> 457 BMP3's
> 603 BMP2's
> 865 BTR's
> 866 MT-LB's
> *2791 total AFV's
> 
> 623 self-propelled artillery over 120mm*
> 
> versus Ukraines 200,000 troops and
> 
> 480 T80's
> 700 T64's
> 300 T72's
> *1480 total tanks*
> 
> 1000 BMP2's
> 1000 BMP1's
> 500 BTR's
> *2500 total AFV's
> 
> over 700 self-propelled artillery over 120mm*
> 
> It will be interesting to see how Ukraine is able to counter the Russians if they invade, they have been pumping out domestic manpads and anti-tank missiles but still lack in air defence and have a very limited air force. Too bad that NATO has refused to help with this. A 100 F-16's and some modern air defence systems like NASAAMS might change the Russian attitude.
> 
> * Russian numbers in particular are taken from Rands Russia's Limit of Advance





suffolkowner said:


> It sure looks like Russia is planning on throwing everything at Ukraine. Pretty much everything they have at least in European Russia. The combined Western and Southern Military Districts have 250,000 troops and
> 
> 123 T90's
> 196 T80's
> 667 T72's
> *986 total tanks*
> 
> 457 BMP3's
> 603 BMP2's
> 865 BTR's
> 866 MT-LB's
> *2791 total AFV's
> 
> 623 self-propelled artillery over 120mm*
> 
> versus Ukraines 200,000 troops and
> 
> 480 T80's
> 700 T64's
> 300 T72's
> *1480 total tanks*
> 
> 1000 BMP2's
> 1000 BMP1's
> 500 BTR's
> *2500 total AFV's
> 
> over 700 self-propelled artillery over 120mm*
> 
> It will be interesting to see how Ukraine is able to counter the Russians if they invade, they have been pumping out domestic manpads and anti-tank missiles but still lack in air defence and have a very limited air force. Too bad that NATO has refused to help with this. A 100 F-16's and some modern air defence systems like NASAAMS might change the Russian attitude.
> 
> * Russian numbers in particular are taken from Rands Russia's Limit of Advance


The Ukkie's have too much ground that they have to cover - all the north along the Belarus border, all the eastern border, pretty much their entire coastline and then along Transnistria - its too much to cover.  The old maxim by Freddie the Great, 'he who defends everything, defends nothing' will unfortunately ring true.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

suffolkowner said:


> It sure looks like Russia is planning on throwing everything at Ukraine. Pretty much everything they have at least in European Russia. The combined Western and Southern Military Districts have 250,000 troops and
> 
> 123 T90's
> 196 T80's
> 667 T72's
> *986 total tanks*
> 
> 457 BMP3's
> 603 BMP2's
> 865 BTR's
> 866 MT-LB's
> *2791 total AFV's
> 
> 623 self-propelled artillery over 120mm*
> 
> versus Ukraines 200,000 troops and
> 
> 480 T80's
> 700 T64's
> 300 T72's
> *1480 total tanks*
> 
> 1000 BMP2's
> 1000 BMP1's
> 500 BTR's
> *2500 total AFV's
> 
> over 700 self-propelled artillery over 120mm*
> 
> It will be interesting to see how Ukraine is able to counter the Russians if they invade, they have been pumping out domestic manpads and anti-tank missiles but still lack in air defence and have a very limited air force. Too bad that NATO has refused to help with this. A 100 F-16's and some modern air defence systems like NASAAMS might change the Russian attitude.
> 
> * Russian numbers in particular are taken from Rands Russia's Limit of Advance


The fact the Russians can mount an invasion force of 250,000 is impressive in itself. Considering the US and UK had under 250k to invade Iraq in 2003. 

Different circumstances of course and Russia is in their own backyard but the European NATO countries would struggle to mount anything of that size.


----------



## Good2Golf

Still think he’s going for everything east of the Dneiper and also Odessa, to land lock the remnants of UKR.


----------



## suffolkowner

Humphrey Bogart said:


> The fact the Russians can mount an invasion force of 250,000 is impressive in itself. Considering the US and UK had under 250k to invade Iraq in 2003.
> 
> Different circumstances of course and Russia is in their own backyard but the European NATO countries would struggle to mount anything of that size.


In another time it would have been suicidal in my opinion to do so as Poland and Finland would be too tempted to try their luck. As it is it leaves about 50000 regular troops to protect everything west of the Urals


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Czech_pivo said:


> th
> 
> 
> 
> The Ukkie's have too much ground that they have to cover - all the north along the Belarus border, all the eastern border, pretty much their entire coastline and then along Transnistria - its too much to cover.  The old maxim by Freddie the Great, 'he who defends everything, defends nothing' will unfortunately ring true.


The problem with comparing paper troop numbers and equipment is they don’t often reflect the reality on the ground.

The facts are that Continental Europe is woefully unprepared for a war with Russia.  Just like us, most of the European Militaries are paper Militaries with very low levels of personnel and equipment readiness.  



Good2Golf said:


> Still think he’s going for everything east of the Dneiper and also Odessa, to land lock the remnants of UKR.


It would make sense to link up with Crimea and Transnistria.  Gives Russia better control of the Black Sea.


----------



## suffolkowner

It's been an open Russian dream to establish a new Novorossiya. I don't know how open Ukrainians are to these ideas, prior to the Donbas conflict and Crimean seizure there were reportedly 8 million Russians in Ukraine but I think they may have been counting Russian speaking Ukrainians as well as Russians. I think that number is much less today with Crimea alone representing 2.5 million. I've read that even amongst Russian speaking Ukrainians (again maybe Russian maybe Ukrainian) that 75% are opposed to Russian intrusions.

Perhaps we should look to the Russians for ideas about military reform









						2008 Russian military reform - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## RangerRay

Hard to disagree with this analysis.  Read the entire thread. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1473362460673515527


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

suffolkowner said:


> It's been an open Russian dream to establish a new Novorossiya. I don't know how open Ukrainians are to these ideas, prior to the Donbas conflict and Crimean seizure there were reportedly 8 million Russians in Ukraine but I think they may have been counting Russian speaking Ukrainians as well as Russians. I think that number is much less today with Crimea alone representing 2.5 million. I've read that even amongst Russian speaking Ukrainians (again maybe Russian maybe Ukrainian) that 75% are opposed to Russian intrusions.
> 
> Perhaps we should look to the Russians for ideas about military reform
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 2008 Russian military reform - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org


What I find interesting about the Russian Military reforms is they were actually carried out by a Businessman as the Russian General Staff were completely untrustworthy.

Prior to becoming the Minister of Defence, Anatoly Serdyukov was the head of the Russian Federal Tax Service.  When he was appointed Minister of Defence, he brought in staff from the Russian Federal Tax Service to run the Department.

They audited the Department and put a bunch of General Staff in Jail for misappropriation of State funds.


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...UQFnoECBcQAQ&usg=AOvVaw3qAdcB_Z4V2JvJW_wsWDRo


----------



## suffolkowner

RangerRay said:


> Hard to disagree with this analysis.  Read the entire thread.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1473362460673515527


Yep looks like Putin's not afraid to be called on this, and probably getting too late to get the air defence systems and anti tank missiles needed in enough numbers to give enough of a pause. In my mind another foreign policy failure of the Biden administration.

Good post by Mark on the situation









						Ukraine: The Mis-shapen Mental Maps within Russia and the US/NATO, or…
					

…as a friend with wide international experience puts it: “A very sensible curse on both your houses perspective.” (Caption for photo at top of the post: “Ukrainian reservist…




					mark3ds.wordpress.com


----------



## blacktriangle

I think a coordinated move on both Ukraine & Taiwan (or one following the other to seize perceived opportunity) would paralyze Western decision makers, and make already risk-averse populations less likely to support any intervention efforts. Not to mention the obvious military challenges associated with such a scenario. Some part of me wonders if that's where things are going in 2022.


----------



## Altair

RangerRay said:


> Hard to disagree with this analysis.  Read the entire thread.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1473362460673515527


NATO, EU, US, western credibility about to hit rock bottom.

Taiwan, buckle up, you're next.


----------



## Brad Sallows

If Ukraine's territorial integrity is seriously at risk, not much to lose from interdicting every pipeline through Ukraine (it's winter) until Europe forces Russia to back down and retreat or joins Russia in dismembering Ukraine.


----------



## suffolkowner

Brad Sallows said:


> If Ukraine's territorial integrity is seriously at risk, not much to lose from interdicting every pipeline through Ukraine (it's winter) until Europe forces Russia to back down and retreat or joins Russia in dismembering Ukraine.


Nordstream 2 would seem to be a good target for an unknown origin of terrorism.

The thing I don't understand is why the NATO partner nations can't see the damage this is doing to their credibility. And in the case of the US how much it has to damage it's position on challenging China. What person could take anything seriously the US said on the topic. Taiwan is probably a tough nut for China to crack as its had decades to fortify and lots of air defence and anti tank weapons. Plus China is supposed to be limited in amphibious transport and as I understand it the best landing sites are all on the east side of the island. But I got to think they are on their own too


----------



## MilEME09

Altair said:


> NATO, EU, US, western credibility about to hit rock bottom.
> 
> Taiwan, buckle up, you're next.


If the west stands back and does nothing, NATO won't have an credibility left. We need to buck up to deter an invasion, or if it happens, hope our training if the Ukrainians will pay off long enough for reinforcements to arrive


----------



## Brad Sallows

Credibility is #2 on the list.  First for NATO is, "what if Ukraine goes down doing scorched earth" to deny Russia the spoils.  (Pipelines, transmission lines, rail routes, etc).  Yes, it'd all be temporary, but temporary is a long time in winter.  And Germany in particular is already feeling an energy crunch.  Cheaper to tell Russia that intervention is on the table and to make it credible.


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> If the west stands back and does nothing, NATO won't have an credibility left. We need to buck up to deter an invasion, or if it happens, hope our training if the Ukrainians will pay off long enough for reinforcements to arrive



As far as Russia's concerned it's OK, the agreement is only in Draft form:

Russia’s draft agreements with NATO and the United States: Intended for rejection?​
On December 17, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs took the unusual step of publishing draft U.S.-Russia and NATO-Russia agreements that encapsulate Moscow’s desired guarantees. The substance of the drafts and the way the Russians publicized them do not suggest a serious negotiating bid.

If the Kremlin is serious about negotiating and deescalates the situation near Ukraine, the West could engage on some elements of the drafts. Many, however, will go nowhere — as Moscow surely knew.

*DRAFT NATO-RUSSIA AGREEMENT*​Russia’s draft “Agreement on Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation and Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization” would require that NATO members commit to no further enlargement of the alliance, including in particular to Ukraine. There is little enthusiasm within NATO now for putting Ukraine on a membership track, as Putin and other Russian officials undoubtedly understand. However, the alliance will not reverse its long-standing “open door” policy. That would require consensus, and few allies, let alone all 30, would agree that Russia can dictate NATO policy in this way.

This suggests that a middle ground of “not now but not never” might offer a way to kick this thorny can down the road. That is, if Moscow wishes to defuse the situation.

Another article in the Russian draft would require that NATO deploy no forces or weapons in countries that joined the alliance after May 1997. That month, NATO committed not to permanently station substantial combat forces in new members and said it had “no intention, no plan, and no reason” to deploy nuclear weapons on their territory. From 1997 to 2014, NATO deployed virtually _no_ troops or equipment in new member states.

That changed following Russia’s seizure of Crimea. NATO now deploys, on a rotating basis, relatively small multinational battlegroups in the Baltic states and Poland. It is difficult to see NATO agreeing to withdraw them absent a significant change in Russia’s military posture. However, the draft treaty would impose no requirements for redeployment of Russian forces.

Such provisions will prove non-starters with the alliance. Others might get a more positive reception. These include language on consultative mechanisms, such as the NATO-Russia Council, and the establishment of a hotline between NATO and Russia. Indeed, NATO has proposed NATO-Russia Council meetings, though Moscow suspended diplomatic relations with NATO in October.

The draft treaty also would bar deployment of intermediate-range missiles in areas where they could reach the other side’s territory. Of course, the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty banned all U.S. and Russian intermediate-range missiles. However, Russia’s deployment of the intermediate-range 9M729 cruise missile in violation of the treaty led to its collapse.

This idea sounds like Putin’s 2019 proposal for a moratorium on deploying intermediate-range missiles in Europe. While NATO turned that aside, it might be worth a second look, provided that Russia affirmed that it would apply to the 9M729 and had appropriate verification measures.
The draft treaty’s proposed bar on any NATO military activity in Ukraine, eastern Europe, the Caucasus, or Central Asia is an overreach, but some measures to limit military exercises and activities on a reciprocal basis might be possible. There is a history of such provisions, for example, the Vienna Document’s confidence- and security-building measures.
*DRAFT U.S.-RUSSIA TREATY*​The draft “Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Security Guarantees” also contains unacceptable provisions. Washington likely will not agree to a requirement that the two countries “not implement security measures … that could undermine core security interests of the other Party.” Moscow has shown it has a very broad definition of what it thinks could undermine its security. Likewise, it is unrealistic to ask the United States to prevent further NATO enlargement; Washington will not agree to close the “open door,” and even if it were to do so, it could not persuade all 29 other allies to agree to change the policy.

While interest could develop in the draft NATO-Russia agreement’s provision on intermediate-range missiles, there will be no interest in the draft U.S.-Russia treaty provision which would effectively ban U.S. intermediate-range missiles from Europe while leaving Russia free to deploy such missiles against NATO countries. The provision limiting the ability of heavy bombers and surface warships to operate in and over international waters will find no fans in Washington or, for that matter, in the Russian military.
*








						Russia’s draft agreements with NATO and the United States: Intended for rejection?
					

Steven Pifer examines Russia's proposed draft agreements with NATO and the United States on security in Europe, and whether they could be an opening bid in serious negotiations or are intended to be rejected and used as a pretext for military action against Ukraine.




					www.brookings.edu
				



*​


----------



## Czech_pivo

Good2Golf said:


> Still think he’s going for everything east of the Dneiper and also Odessa, to land lock the remnants of UKR.


Yes I do. There are only 4 bridges over the Dnieper, if he grabs Dnipro via Kharkov, cut those bridges and the east falls.


----------



## Czech_pivo

blacktriangle said:


> I think a coordinated move on both Ukraine & Taiwan (or one following the other to seize perceived opportunity) would paralyze Western decision makers, and make already risk-averse populations less likely to support any intervention efforts. Not to mention the obvious military challenges associated with such a scenario. Some part of me wonders if that's where things are going in 2022.


Interesting - from China's angle, if this occurs during the Olympics all those young athletes would be great hostages to prevent the US et al's from supporting Taiwan.....


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> Yes I do. There are only 4 bridges over the Dnieper, if he grabs Dnipro via Kharkov, cut those bridges and the east falls.


So Ukraine must hold the bridges at all costs? Sounds like a tall order, the real question is, when the shooting starts, who will help? And who might take advantage of the situation? Would Georgia try to neutralize its break away regions while Russias forces are in Ukraine?


----------



## Altair

Brad Sallows said:


> If Ukraine's territorial integrity is seriously at risk, not much to lose from interdicting every pipeline through Ukraine (it's winter) until Europe forces Russia to back down and retreat or joins Russia in dismembering Ukraine.


We both know this would be the path of least resistance for Europe.


----------



## MilEME09

Altair said:


> We both know this would be the path of least resistance for Europe.


21st century Czechoslovakia?


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> So Ukraine must hold the bridges at all costs? Sounds like a tall order, the real question is, when the shooting starts, who will help? And who might take advantage of the situation? Would Georgia try to neutralize its break away regions while Russias forces are in Ukraine?


Its a very tall order. But how can they reinforce the east if those measly 4 bridges are taken out? Its impossible.


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> Its a very tall order. But how can they reinforce the east if those measly 4 bridges are taken out? Its impossible.


They do have a lot of bridging equipment, how much of it is operational is any ones guess, they would also need to protect their operations


----------



## Good2Golf

Czech_pivo said:


> Yes I do. There are only 4 bridges over the Dnieper, if he grabs Dnipro via Kharkov, cut those bridges and the east falls.


I shortcut and didn’t add the “I” to “I still think…”


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some options from the Institute for the Study of War (Part 1 - Part 2) full study attached)


> A full-scale Russian invasion would consist of numerous discrete operations, almost every one of which could also be conducted independently of the others to achieve more limited objectives at lesser cost and risk. The most salient of those operations include, in order from most- to least-likely:
> 
> 
> Deploying Russian airborne and/or mechanized units to one or more locations in Belarus that would support a planned attack on Ukraine as well as pose other threats to NATO member states;
> Deploying Russian mechanized, tank, artillery, and support units overtly into occupied Donbas;
> Breaking out from occupied Donbas to establish a land bridge connecting Russian-occupied Crimea with Russian territory near Rostov along the northern Sea of Azov littoral, as well as seizing the Kherson region north of Crimea and securing the Dnepr-Crimea canal;
> Conducting airborne and amphibious operations to seize Odesa and the western Ukrainian Black Sea coast; and
> Launching a mechanized drive to seize the strategic city of Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine ...


From the Table of Contents of Part 2:


> 10 Full-Scale Invasion
> 10 The Russian Plan
> 13 Likely Ukrainian Initial Responses to Full-Scale Invasion
> 13 Likely Situation Following Initial Invasion
> 15 How Would Putin Rule a Conquered Ukraine?
> 18 Courses of Action Subordinate to COA 1: A Full Invasion of Ukraine
> 18 Sub-COA 1a: Deploy Forces to Belarus
> 21 Sub-COA 1b: Overt Deployment in Donbas
> 22 Sub-COA 1c: Create a Land Bridge from Rostov to Crimea
> 24 Sub-COA 1d: Odesa
> 26 Sub-COA 1e: Kharkiv
> 28 Evaluation of COA 1 and Sub-COAs 1c through 1e


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> 21st century Czechoslovakia?





The Bread Guy said:


> Some options from the Institute for the Study of War (Part 1 - Part 2) full study attached)
> 
> From the Table of Contents of Part 2:


Thank you very much for posting this.  I'm going to go over this.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, in the info-fight, at least one fellow-traveller news site's alleging the U.S. is helping Ukraine stage some CBRN "provocation", citing/linking RUS state media saying so here & here (all links are to archived versions of the articles to keep you from linking to sketchy sites). Fellow-traveller text also in attached PDF.


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> Meanwhile, in the info-fight, at least one fellow-traveller news site's alleging the U.S. is helping Ukraine stage some CBRN "provocation", citing/linking RUS state media saying so here & here (all links are to archived versions of the articles to keep you from linking to sketchy sites). Fellow-traveller text also in attached PDF.


That's a new one for the playbook, but given our lack of response to Syria, is this a signal Russia may use chemical weapons?


----------



## Czech_pivo

One thing to look for is if the Russians start to quietly or not so quietly add to their fresh blood banks.  If they are serious about invading I would  think they would need to dramatically boost their reserves of blood needed for battlefield casualties. Trolling the various hospitals in western Russia to see if they are requesting volunteers to add to their blood banks would be a dead giveaway.


----------



## Brad Sallows

Russia can't afford to get too "stuck in" in Ukraine.  China probably hasn't shredded all its plans to help itself to bits of the Russian far east if Russia is preoccupied elsewhere.

If Russia moves on Ukraine and China moves on Taiwan, at least in principle a western coalition could handle a two-front war which is primarily land-air in Europe and sea-air in eastern waters.  China could at least in principle handle a two-front war which is primarily land-air in the north and sea-air in the south.  But Russia would be quite f*cked trying to fight two land wars in Europe/Asia.


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Some options from the Institute for the Study of War (Part 1 - Part 2) full study attached)
> 
> From the Table of Contents of Part 2:


_"The 1st Guards Tank Army elements observed moving into Belarus during the Zapad-2021 exercises included: 
• Elements of the 2nd Motor Rifle Division 

Company-sized element of the 15th Motor Rifle Regiment at the Brest Training Ground, *Brest*, Belarus.112 -
Company-sized element of the 147th Artillery Regiment likely at the Brest Training Ground, *Brest*, Belarus.113
Elements of the 69th Separate Logistic Brigade at the Obuz-Lesnovsky Training Ground in *Brest*, Belarus, on September 15.11
Unspecified engineering, reconnaissance, topographer, electronic warfare,
and battalion-sized artillery elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army at the Obuz-Lesnovsky Training Ground in *Brest*, Belarus, from September 11 to 15, 2021.1_
*Elements of the 76th VDV Division*
_Unspecified elements of the 76th Guards Air Assault Division trained at the ObuzLesnovsky Training Ground in *Brest*, Belarus, on September 10 and September 13, 2021.136_
*Elements of the 31st Airborne Brigade*
- E_lements of the 31st Airborne Brigade exercised at the Obuz-Lesnovsky Training Ground in *Brest*, Belarus on September 10.1_
*Elements of the 45th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade*
- _A company-sided airborne infantry force of 90 paratroopers of the Russian 45th Spetsnaz Brigade deployed from Kublina airfield in Moscow to the Brest Training Ground, in *Brest*, Belarus on September 15, 2021.13_
*Elements of the 106th Guards Airborne Division
- *_Elements of the 106th Guards Airborne Division exercised at the Brest Training Ground, in *Brest*, Belarus on September 10, 2021.140_


This is a very interesting piece of news. Brest is located adjacent to the highway that runs through Brest straight on to Warsaw (200km away, flat open land, no rivers).....The 1st Guards is the most elite unit in the Russian army.  Its placement here, along with Air Assault/Airborne units, are a clear and present warning to the Poles, don't fuck with us on this.


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> _"The 1st Guards Tank Army elements observed moving into Belarus during the Zapad-2021 exercises included:
> • Elements of the 2nd Motor Rifle Division
> _
> 
> _
> Company-sized element of the 15th Motor Rifle Regiment at the Brest Training Ground, *Brest*, Belarus.112 -
> Company-sized element of the 147th Artillery Regiment likely at the Brest Training Ground, *Brest*, Belarus.113
> Elements of the 69th Separate Logistic Brigade at the Obuz-Lesnovsky Training Ground in *Brest*, Belarus, on September 15.11
> Unspecified engineering, reconnaissance, topographer, electronic warfare,
> _
> _and battalion-sized artillery elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army at the Obuz-Lesnovsky Training Ground in *Brest*, Belarus, from September 11 to 15, 2021.1_
> *Elements of the 76th VDV Division*
> _Unspecified elements of the 76th Guards Air Assault Division trained at the ObuzLesnovsky Training Ground in *Brest*, Belarus, on September 10 and September 13, 2021.136_
> *Elements of the 31st Airborne Brigade*
> - E_lements of the 31st Airborne Brigade exercised at the Obuz-Lesnovsky Training Ground in *Brest*, Belarus on September 10.1_
> *Elements of the 45th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade*
> - _A company-sided airborne infantry force of 90 paratroopers of the Russian 45th Spetsnaz Brigade deployed from Kublina airfield in Moscow to the Brest Training Ground, in *Brest*, Belarus on September 15, 2021.13_
> *Elements of the 106th Guards Airborne Division
> - *_Elements of the 106th Guards Airborne Division exercised at the Brest Training Ground, in *Brest*, Belarus on September 10, 2021.140_
> 
> 
> This is a very interesting piece of news. Brest is located adjacent to the highway that runs through Brest straight on to Warsaw (200km away, flat open land, no rivers).....The 1st Guards is the most elite unit in the Russian army.  Its placement here, along with Air Assault/Airborne units, are a clear and present warning to the Poles, don't fuck with us on this.


It's also a stones throw to Lviv, that force may be reactionary in nature. If NATO intervenes, the 1st Guards can intercept any force going into Ukraine. That said, there is a lot if open Ground in that area, if NATO took Air superiority, the 1st Guards would be wiped out. There's also the question of if Belarus gets directly involved, if they do, it could be the last move Europe's last dictator makes.


----------



## Altair

Brad Sallows said:


> Russia can't afford to get too "stuck in" in Ukraine.  China probably hasn't shredded all its plans to help itself to bits of the Russian far east if Russia is preoccupied elsewhere.


Do you think for one second that China is at all interested in fighting Russia compared to fighting someone like Taiwan and facing off against the west?

If China hobbles Russia, then there is nobody to take interest off of Beijing and their workings. The west cannot suitably deal with both Russia and China at the same time, a fact that China and Russia probably know very well and thus I don't see either of them doing that.

Which is why you see more and more of this.









						China, Russia launch joint naval drills in Russian Far East
					

China and Russia are united in opposing the dominant U.S. influence in global affairs.




					www.militarytimes.com
				






> BEIJING (AP) — China and Russia are holding joint naval drills off the Russian Far East in the latest sign of their growing political and military alignment.
> 
> The exercises Joint Sea 2021 kicked off with a ceremony on Thursday in Russia’s Peter the Great Gulf and will run through Sunday.





> While such exercises have been held before, the reports said this is the first time China has sent anti-submarine warfare planes and destroyers of more than 10,000 tons in displacement for exercises abroad.
> 
> China and Russia are united in opposing the dominant U.S. influence in global affairs and have been harsh critics of Washington’s foreign policy stumbles in Afghanistan and elsewhere.





Brad Sallows said:


> If Russia moves on Ukraine and China moves on Taiwan, at least in principle a western coalition could handle a two-front war which is primarily land-air in Europe and sea-air in eastern waters.  China could at least in principle handle a two-front war which is primarily land-air in the north and sea-air in the south.  But Russia would be quite f*cked trying to fight two land wars in Europe/Asia.


Except the west will do nothing. Not to defend Ukraine, not to defend Taiwan.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> It's also a stones throw to Lviv, that force may be reactionary in nature. If NATO intervenes, the 1st Guards can intercept any force going into Ukraine. That said, there is a lot if open Ground in that area, if NATO Poland took Air superiority tried anything, the 1st Guards Poles would be wiped out. There's also the question of if Belarus gets directly involved, if they do, it could be the last move Europe's last dictator makes.


Fixed your post a bit.


----------



## suffolkowner

I don't think there's any doubt that China covets the Asian part of the Russian empire but are more likely to achieve influence through migration and economic influence, they need Russia's gas station and Russia needs them just as much especially as they've been cut off on American investment. It's unfortunate that events are driving Russia and China into greater cooperation but probably inevitable.

Putin really does sound like a madman, it's hard to believe anyone can take him seriously. To ease his anxiety Russia should be offered immediate entry into NATO that way he would not be so worried about a Ukrainian attack


----------



## Altair

suffolkowner said:


> I don't think there's any doubt that China covets the Asian part of the Russian empire but are more likely to achieve influence through migration and economic influence, they need Russia's gas station and Russia needs them just as much especially as they've been cut off on American investment. It's unfortunate that events are driving Russia and China into greater cooperation but probably inevitable.


Lets not forget that a large part of Russian Siberia is about to lose the permafrost and become more suitable places for resource extraction and development. Russia is the country that will benefit the most from climate change. It's going to need a boatload of people to settle that land and a boatload of investment to get things up and running and I bet that Russia is planning on Chinese migration for that and I think China is more than happy to facilitate it. 

The problem I see is that it's so mutually beneficial I doubt they go to war over it. Its like America invading Canada for its water and oil. It could, but it's probably just easier to buy it.


suffolkowner said:


> Putin really does sound like a madman, it's hard to believe anyone can take him seriously. To ease his anxiety Russia should be offered immediate entry into NATO that way he would not be so worried about a Ukrainian attack


He's not a madman though, he's a high stakes gambler. 

And he knows the west is playing a weak hand.


----------



## suffolkowner

Altair said:


> Lets not forget that a large part of Russian Siberia is about to lose the permafrost and become more suitable places for resource extraction and development. Russia is the country that will benefit the most from climate change. It's going to need a boatload of people to settle that land and a boatload of investment to get things up and running and I bet that Russia is planning on Chinese migration for that and I think China is more than happy to facilitate it.
> 
> The problem I see is that it's so mutually beneficial I doubt they go to war over it. Its like America invading Canada for its water and oil. It could, but it's probably just easier to buy it.
> 
> He's not a madman though, he's a high stakes gambler.
> 
> And he knows the west is playing a weak hand.


The west doesn't have a weak hand they're just playing like it


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> Do you think for one second that China is at all interested in fighting Russia compared to fighting someone like Taiwan and facing off against the west?
> 
> If China hobbles Russia, then there is nobody to take interest off of Beijing and their workings. The west cannot suitably deal with both Russia and China at the same time, a fact that China and Russia probably know very well and thus I don't see either of them doing that.
> 
> Which is why you see more and more of this.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> China, Russia launch joint naval drills in Russian Far East
> 
> 
> China and Russia are united in opposing the dominant U.S. influence in global affairs.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.militarytimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Except the west will do nothing. Not to defend Ukraine, not to defend Taiwan.


I disagree on Taiwan. The west cannot afford to allow China to control the chip manu that resides in Taiwan. If they lose that then expect a massive move out of China by dozens of US companies as the US govt will force them to onshore under the Defence Act to ensure US manu capability.


----------



## Altair

suffolkowner said:


> The west doesn't have a weak hand they're just playing like it


The west has ruled out any direct military support for Ukraine. 

What is left to stop Russia can only be summed up as a weak hand. 

Sanctions? Weak. 

Cut from international monetary system? Weak. 

Diplomatic action? Weak.

Cut energy exports? Europe cries uncle before Russia does, weak. 

Giving arms to Ukraine? Wont be enough and wont be there in time, weak. 

The second the USA said it would not be commiting ground troops to defend Ukraine, whatever hand the west played would pale in comparison to Russia willing to use military force.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> I disagree on Taiwan. The west cannot afford to allow China to control the chip manu that resides in Taiwan. If they lose that then expect a massive move out of China by dozens of US companies as the US govt will force them to onshore under the Defence Act to ensure US manu capability.


You know they would rather do this than face losses trying to defend Taiwan.


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> The west doesn't have a weak hand they're just playing like it


We have forgotten how to play this game, our resolve is weak, and so is our talk, we have weakened our own position by not doing anything when people call our bluffs. Putin knows we likely won't do anything in Ukraine, we barely did anything in Syria, we failed to stop NK from getting nukes, China from taking the south China sea. We are weak, because we refuse to engage in anything high risk, only operations that we have a definite advantage against the enemy who can't even fight us on equal terms. No one I  the west has the stomach for a near peer fight.


----------



## suffolkowner

Altair said:


> The west has ruled out any direct military support for Ukraine.
> 
> What is left to stop Russia can only be summed up as a weak hand.
> 
> Sanctions? Weak.
> 
> Cut from international monetary system? Weak.
> 
> Diplomatic action? Weak.
> 
> Cut energy exports? Europe cries uncle before Russia does, weak.
> 
> Giving arms to Ukraine? Wont be enough and wont be there in time, weak.
> 
> The second the USA said it would not be commiting ground troops to defend Ukraine, whatever hand the west played would pale in comparison to Russia willing to use military force.


mostly true but thats not having a weak hand thats playing a weak hand


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> Fixed your post a bit.


I completely disagree with your post. 
The Poles would not be ‘wiped out’ as you said. The Russians tried for decades and decades and decades to achieve this and utterly failed. Same with the Germans. 
Getting a bit tired of your anti-Pole rants and pro-Russian ones.


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> I completely disagree with your post.
> The Poles would not be ‘wiped out’ as you said. The Russians tried for decades and decades and decades to achieve this and utterly failed. Same with the Germans.
> Getting a bit tired of your anti-Pole rants and pro-Russian ones.


Not to mention polish tech has proven it self against Russia. Polish GROMs were very effective in Georgia against Russian aircraft.


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> We have forgotten how to play this game, our resolve is weak, and so is our talk, we have weakened our own position by not doing anything when people call our bluffs. Putin knows we likely won't do anything in Ukraine, we barely did anything in Syria, we failed to stop NK from getting nukes, China from taking the south China sea. We are weak, because we refuse to engage in anything high risk, only operations that we have a definite advantage against the enemy who can't even fight us on equal terms. No one I  the west has the stomach for a near peer fight.


I really don't think that the average joe in the west lacks the stomach for the fight so much as our so called leadership does. Strange to spend billions and trillions on national defence initiatives and strange wars with no apparent goal to avoid ones where the goals and outcomes are obvious


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> I completely disagree with your post.
> The Poles would not be ‘wiped out’ as you said. The Russians tried for decades and decades and decades to achieve this and utterly failed. Same with the Germans.
> Getting a bit tired of your anti-Pole rants and pro-Russian ones.


Get tired all you like, I really doubt the Poles 

A) Defy Washington and get involved in the first place

B) Based on their own results from a ex they ran, would go head to head versus the Russians


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> We have forgotten how to play this game, our resolve is weak, and so is our talk, we have weakened our own position by not doing anything when people call our bluffs. Putin knows we likely won't do anything in Ukraine, we barely did anything in Syria, we failed to stop NK from getting nukes, China from taking the south China sea. We are weak, because we refuse to engage in anything high risk, only operations that we have a definite advantage against the enemy who can't even fight us on equal terms. No one I  the west has the stomach for a near peer fight.


Add in Russia taking Crimea and China crushing Hong Kong


----------



## MilEME09

Altair said:


> Get tired all you like, I really doubt the Poles
> 
> A) Defy Washington and get involved in the first place
> 
> B) Based on their own results from a ex they ran, would go head to head versus the Russians


That was also a 1 v 1 fight against Russia, we are talking about Poland taking out a single BTG in Brest, which it could accomplish if it had the right strategy.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> That was also a 1 v 1 fight against Russia, we are talking about Poland taking out a single BTG in Brest, which it could accomplish if it had the right strategy.


It was a 1 vs 1 fight, but they lasted 4 days out of the expected 20. Results like that do not inspire confidence to go adventuring, especially with Washington loathe to get involved.


----------



## MilEME09

Altair said:


> It was a 1 vs 1 fight, but they lasted 4 days out of the expected 20. Results like that do not inspire confidence to go adventuring, especially with Washington loathe to get involved.


Table top Sims rarely go like they real thing. Look at the expected vs the result of desert storm. We also dont know what the conditions were of that war game, Russian surprise attack? Polish intervention followed by Russian counter offensive? Really hard to accurately gauge their chances when there are way to many variables to consider.


----------



## suffolkowner

For reference the Poles have

250 Leo2's
614 T72's
*864 total tanks

1800 AFV's *including over 1000 Patria's

*over 230 *120mm plus self propelled howitzers

more than what Russia has in the Western Military District and 1/4 of the fighter jets that Russia has in the WMD especially if the WMD and SMD are engaged in Ukraine leaving what the 50000 troops of the NMD.  

Maybe there's a little bit of reason behind Putin's paranoia


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> Table top Sims rarely go like they real thing. Look at the expected vs the result of desert storm. We also dont know what the conditions were of that war game, Russian surprise attack? Polish intervention followed by Russian counter offensive? Really hard to accurately gauge their chances when there are way to many variables to consider.


This is true, but they got smashed and that cannot leave them feeling confident of any engagement with Russia, especially if Washington wont back them up. 

And seeing as Washington is making absolutely clear that no US military assets will be fighting the Russians I think it's pretty clear Poland would be on its own, if not facing significant pressure from the USA to not get involved. 

This doesn't exactly scream that they would come out on top, does it?


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> Table top Sims rarely go like they real thing. Look at the expected vs the result of desert storm. We also dont know what the conditions were of that war game, Russian surprise attack? Polish intervention followed by Russian counter offensive? Really hard to accurately gauge their chances when there are way to many variables to consider.


I think that simulation was just a PR move by the Polish military to get approval for more expenditures including the addition of 250 M1A2v3 and 32 F35's

all Polish divisions were forward based in eastern Poland to defend the Suwalki gap 
it even included the addition of the Abrams and Lightnings

all the other PR on the F-35 must be total BS if Poland got overrun, makes one wonder how it wins so many NATO procurements


----------



## OceanBonfire

Looks like Russian mercenaries are present:









						Russian mercenaries deploy to eastern Ukraine - sources
					

Russian mercenaries have deployed to separatist-controlled eastern Ukraine in recent weeks to bolster defences against Ukrainian government forces as tensions between Moscow and the West rise, four sources have told Reuters.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Altair

suffolkowner said:


> I think that simulation was just a PR move by the Polish military to get approval for more expenditures including the addition of 250 M1A2v3 and 32 F35's


They are also doubling the size of their military to around 300k 

That exercise had far reaching consequences for Poland, I think it really did spook them. 


suffolkowner said:


> all Polish divisions were forward based in eastern Poland to defend the Suwalki gap
> it even included the addition of the Abrams and Lightnings


I didn't know the details were public, but if thats the case, its even worse. 


suffolkowner said:


> all the other PR on the F-35 must be total BS if Poland got overrun, makes one wonder how it wins so many NATO procurements


the F35s cannot stop the russian military on their own, no fighter can.


----------



## MilEME09

Altair said:


> the F35s cannot stop the russian military on their own, no fighter can.


Your right it can't, but if it can take out enemy air Défense and others A2AD assets, then all remaining ground assets the Russians have would be sitting ducks, even for Poland. The F35 isn't a hammer, it's a scalpel. Eliminate the air defense, and even the 1st Guards would be at the mercy of polish F16s and Su22s.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> Your right it can't, but if it can take out enemy air Défense and others A2AD assets, then all remaining ground assets the Russians have would be sitting ducks, even for Poland. The F35 isn't a hammer, it's a scalpel. Eliminate the air defense, and even the 1st Guards would be at the mercy of polish F16s and Su22s.


Do S400s take out the F35s though?


----------



## MilEME09

Altair said:


> Do S400s take out the F35s though?


Given Turkey has S400s, I bet we know. Syria also got S300s from Russia with modern radars which couldn't pick up Israeli F35s, given the knowns we have from OSINT, the S400 likely can't till its to late, and the S500 which is touted as anti stealth has only just started deliveries, of which the Moscow based defense units get first deliveries.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> Given Turkey has S400s, I bet we know.


I bet Russia knows too.


MilEME09 said:


> Syria also got S300s from Russia with modern radars which couldn't pick up Israeli F35s, given the knowns we have from OSINT, the S400 likely can't till its to late,


It will be interesting to see.


MilEME09 said:


> and the S500 which is touted as anti stealth has only just started deliveries, of which the Moscow based defense units get first deliveries.


I didn't even know this was being deployed. Great.

Still, I don't know the parameters of the exercise the Poles ran and how the F35s performed.


----------



## suffolkowner

I doubt the S400/500 can get a lock on the F-35 coming in, but I'm not sure if any anti radiation missiles have been cleared for internal weapons bay


----------



## MilEME09

Altair said:


> I bet Russia knows too.
> 
> It will be interesting to see.
> 
> I didn't even know this was being deployed. Great.


Russia reported tested the S500 is Syria and managed to lock and track the F35, but this is a claim from Russia media and unverified. Approximately 4 batteries of the S500 have been delivered since September of this year to the Moscow area.


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> I doubt the S400/500 can get a lock on the F-35 coming in, but I'm not sure if any anti radiation missiles have been cleared for internal weapons bay


From what I can find the AGM-88G can be internally mounted the the A and C models of the F35. The latest version of the AGM-88G has a reported range of 300km and a speed of Mach 4. Which means, with the exception of the 40N6E missile, the AGM-88G can out range the S400 system.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> Russia reported tested the S500 is Syria and managed to lock and track the F35, but this is a claim from Russia media and unverified. Approximately 4 batteries of the S500 have been delivered since September of this year to the Moscow area.


if the s500 can track and lock the F35, does it feed this information to the multitude of S400 systems for the kills?


----------



## suffolkowner

Altair said:


> if the s500 can track and lock the F35, does it feed this information to the multitude of S400 systems for the kills?


I doubt you can get a lock on a F35 at anywhere near 100km nevermind 300


----------



## Altair

suffolkowner said:


> I doubt you can get a lock on a F35 at anywhere near 100km nevermind 300


Again, depends on how the Polish ran the ex. Maybe they overestimate the S400/500 systems and underestimate the F35, or maybe they are on point.

Hope we never need to find out.


----------



## MilEME09

U.S. Considers Warning Ukraine of a Russian Invasion in Real-Time
					

U.S. officials say intelligence sharing is essential to the Ukrainian government’s survival, even as they try to avoid escalating the situation.




					www.google.com
				




US considering providing real time intelligence to Ukraine, redirecting equipment meant for the Afgjan National Army to Ukraine, among other measures on the table.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> U.S. Considers Warning Ukraine of a Russian Invasion in Real-Time
> 
> 
> U.S. officials say intelligence sharing is essential to the Ukrainian government’s survival, even as they try to avoid escalating the situation.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.google.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> US considering providing real time intelligence to Ukraine, redirecting equipment meant for the Afgjan National Army to Ukraine, among other measures on the table.


Holding their hand as they take it from russia.


----------



## CBH99

Oooohhhh…

Care to expand?  Intrigued 🤨


----------



## CBH99

The Bread Guy said:


> Food for thought:  as long as NATO _says_ they'll help, but don't _really_, and doesn't do anything to let Ukraine into NATO, does Russia even need to invade?


 Ooooohhhhh… Care to expand?  Intrigued 🤨


----------



## Brad Sallows

Taiwan is economically valuable, but China has plenty of economically valuable areas (Hong Kong, Shanghai).  Far eastern Russian possessions have actual in-the-ground resources and are a long ways from Moscow over limited routes.  People who trade a lot have more to lose if they fight, and - just a guess - China needs to trade with the west more than it does with Russia.

Agitators and people with budget axes to grind have been playing up "invincible Russians" for decades.  Not quite true.

Whatever NATO, or merely interested European countries publicly say they will or won't do right now, becomes irrelevant if Ukraine sees no future.  There is no reason for Ukraine to let anything usable fall into Russian hands since it just means more assets in Russian hands to prepare for the next, probably final, bite.  Europe is vulnerable and has a dog in this fight whether it likes it or not.

All kinds of speculation possible.  But bad things tend to happen during periods of instability and stress and perceived weakness, not during periods of peace and perceived strength.  I doubt there are any "President Biden is strong and energetic and capable" assessments floating around foreign capitals.  COVID is stressing everyone, but some may think it stresses others more than themselves.  Canada and the US are preoccupied with social change.  Not sure how many potentially competent fighting commanders have been ejected over social issues, but at least some.  Germany has backed itself into at least a temporarily embarrassing energy situation.  No idea what troubles the British and French right now.  Rough guess - for anyone up to no good, the general situation probably hasn't been this favourable for decades.

Citing again something which tends to be true and I can no longer place: any war longer than about 6 months becomes attritional.  The west has the deepest pockets if things go that way, and China's are deeper than Russia's.  No amount of shirtless photos will restore Putin's "big man" image if Russians know him as the man who lost a chunk of Russia to China.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Putin, angling for your lunch money 

Russia urges West to move quickly to guarantee Ukraine won't join NATO​
Russian President Vladimir Putin turned up the pressure ever so slightly on Thursday by restating his demands for security guarantees, including rolling back NATO's eastward expansion and urging the West to move quickly.

Speaking during his annual marathon news conference with the international media, the Russian leader sounded a positive note by welcoming talks with the U.S., which are set to start in Geneva next month.

He warned, however, that Moscow expects the discussion to produce quick results.

"We have clearly and precisely let them know that any further NATO expansion eastward is unacceptable," Putin said.

Russia wants a written guarantee that Ukraine and other former Soviet countries will not be allowed into NATO and that the alliance's deployments in Eastern Europe be pulled. The United States and NATO have already rejected the first demand, saying membership is open to any qualifying country.



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/putin-nato-ukraine-annual-news-conference-1.6296150


----------



## Altair

Brad Sallows said:


> Taiwan is economically valuable, but China has plenty of economically valuable areas (Hong Kong, Shanghai).  Far eastern Russian possessions have actual in-the-ground resources and are a long ways from Moscow over limited routes.  People who trade a lot have more to lose if they fight, and - just a guess - China needs to trade with the west more than it does with Russia.


China also needs fuel for its cities and industries. It's not so cut and dry.


Brad Sallows said:


> Agitators and people with budget axes to grind have been playing up "invincible Russians" for decades.  Not quite true.


Invincible no. Better than Ukraine, I would bet on that.


Brad Sallows said:


> Whatever NATO, or merely interested European countries publicly say they will or won't do right now, becomes irrelevant if Ukraine sees no future.  There is no reason for Ukraine to let anything usable fall into Russian hands since it just means more assets in Russian hands to prepare for the next, probably final, bite.  Europe is vulnerable and has a dog in this fight whether it likes it or not.


You're right, but this isn't going to dissuade Russia. For them its better to own it and rebuild it.


Brad Sallows said:


> All kinds of speculation possible.  But bad things tend to happen during periods of instability and stress and perceived weakness, not during periods of peace and perceived strength.  I doubt there are any "President Biden is strong and energetic and capable" assessments floating around foreign capitals.


Yeah, America is done. 3 straight presidents who all wanted nothing more than to bring the troops home, get out of conflicts, and focus on a cold war with China. It's not a coincidence, Americans are electing these men.


Brad Sallows said:


> COVID is stressing everyone, but some may think it stresses others more than themselves.  Canada and the US are preoccupied with social change.  Not sure how many potentially competent fighting commanders have been ejected over social issues, but at least some.  Germany has backed itself into at least a temporarily embarrassing energy situation.  No idea what troubles the British and French right now.  Rough guess - for anyone up to no good, the general situation probably hasn't been this favourable for decades.


And for a guy who has been playing a weak hand to great effect for a decade, yeah, this is the time.


Brad Sallows said:


> Citing again something which tends to be true and I can no longer place: any war longer than about 6 months becomes attritional.  The west has the deepest pockets if things go that way, and China's are deeper than Russia's.  No amount of shirtless photos will restore Putin's "big man" image if Russians know him as the man who lost a chunk of Russia to China.


Russia and China have similiar adversaries, which is why their ties are getting closer.


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> Russia reported tested the S500 is Syria and managed to lock and track the F35, but this is a claim from Russia media and unverified. Approximately 4 batteries of the S500 have been delivered since September of this year to the Moscow area.


From the same organization that turned a shipment of medical-grade Botox into a preemptive CBRN attack? 😉



> Russia wants a written guarantee that Ukraine and *other former Soviet countries* will not be allowed into NATO and that the alliance's deployments in Eastern Europe be pulled. The United States and NATO have already rejected the first demand, saying membership is open to any qualifying country.



Honestly, what’s left of the previous Warsaw Pact in Russia’s western flank that isn’t already NATO?

Belarus.  Ukraine.  🤔


----------



## daftandbarmy

Good2Golf said:


> From the same organization that turned a shipment of medical-grade Botox into a preemptive CBRN attack? 😉
> 
> 
> 
> Honestly, what’s left of the previous Warsaw Pact in Russia’s western flank that isn’t already NATO?
> 
> Belarus.  Ukraine.  🤔



Moldova's 'neutral or else', it seems.

Article 11 of the Constitution of Moldova states: "The Republic of Moldova proclaims its permanent neutrality. The Republic of Moldova does not allow the deployment of armed forces of other states on its territory."

Thus, since Moldova's neutrality is enshrined in its constitution, the country has no plans to join either NATO or CSTO.









						Moldova–NATO relations - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Good2Golf

Were they ever part of the WP?  I didn’t think they were, technically.


----------



## Altair

Good2Golf said:


> From the same organization that turned a shipment of medical-grade Botox into a preemptive CBRN attack? 😉
> 
> 
> 
> Honestly, what’s left of the previous Warsaw Pact in Russia’s western flank that isn’t already NATO?
> 
> Belarus.  Ukraine.  🤔


does georgia count?


----------



## MilEME09

daftandbarmy said:


> Moldova's 'neutral or else', it seems.
> 
> Article 11 of the Constitution of Moldova states: "The Republic of Moldova proclaims its permanent neutrality. The Republic of Moldova does not allow the deployment of armed forces of other states on its territory."
> 
> Thus, since Moldova's neutrality is enshrined in its constitution, the country has no plans to join either NATO or CSTO.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Moldova–NATO relations - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org


Except the Russian "peace keepers" in Transnistria


----------



## The Bread Guy

CBH99 said:


> Ooooohhhhh… Care to expand?  Intrigued 🤨


Well, if it's clear enough that NATO won't intervene, and they won't say "yes" to UKR joining NATO, then RUS saves itself a ton of blood & treasure just by, say, moving troops into Belarus (thus also c**k blocking Lithuania & Poland a bit with the Sulwaki Gap, depending on where the RUS troops end up) and maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe into the occupied Donbas.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> Were they ever part of the WP?  I didn’t think they were, technically.


Used to be part of the USSR proper, so it ended up becoming a sort of " 'Stan of the East," so to speak, when it became independent in '91.


----------



## OldSolduer

Good2Golf said:


> Were they ever part of the WP?  I didn’t think they were, technically.


I don`t recall but they are close enough to be influenced by Uncle Vlady. At least you know what he stands for.


----------



## Good2Golf

The Bread Guy said:


> Used to be part of the USSR proper, so it ended up becoming a sort of " 'Stan of the East," so to speak, when it became independent in '91.


I must have been confusing it with the similarly-named states in all those Hallmark Christmas movies…


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> Except the Russian "peace keepers" in Transnistria


Transnistria doesn't belong to Moldova although they do claim it.  

Interesting part of the World.  When the Soviet Union collapsed, the 14th Guards Army basically took over that part of Moldova and refused to leave.  They have been there ever since.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Transnistria doesn't belong to Moldova although they do claim it.
> 
> Interesting part of the World.  When the Soviet Union collapsed, the 14th Guards Army basically took over that part of Moldova and refused to leave.  They have been there ever since.


The place is a shithole, full of crooks, criminals and crime.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Czech_pivo said:


> The place is a shithole, full of crooks, criminals and crime.


I've heard they make real top quality spirits and liquor though!






						KVINT
					

KVINT




					www.kvint.md
				




You can even buy it at the LCBO it's that good! 



			https://www.lcbo.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/en/lcbo/wine-14/red-wine-14001/tiraspol-merlot-kosher-for-passover-2016-776963#.YcXvf2mIY0E


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I've heard they make real top quality spirits and liquor though!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> KVINT
> 
> 
> KVINT
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.kvint.md
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You can even buy it at the LCBO it's that good!
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.lcbo.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/en/lcbo/wine-14/red-wine-14001/tiraspol-merlot-kosher-for-passover-2016-776963#.YcXvf2mIY0E


Have a read. That wine very well could be owned by them.... 









						The Shadowy Business Empire Behind The Meteoric Rise Of Sheriff Tiraspol
					

A soccer team from Moldova's breakaway region of Transdniester has taken the sports world by storm with their success in Europe's top club competition. But behind the success of Sheriff Tiraspol lies a murky business empire operating in a largely lawless region.




					www.rferl.org


----------



## MilEME09

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-russia-possible-scenarios-1.6295949
		


Finally some Canadian media coverage


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Czech_pivo said:


> Have a read. That wine very well could be owned by them....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Shadowy Business Empire Behind The Meteoric Rise Of Sheriff Tiraspol
> 
> 
> A soccer team from Moldova's breakaway region of Transdniester has taken the sports world by storm with their success in Europe's top club competition. But behind the success of Sheriff Tiraspol lies a murky business empire operating in a largely lawless region.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rferl.org


I've read the article before.  BBC did a phenomenal piece of investigative journalism on Transistria around 15 years ago.  It has sadly disappeared from the web.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-russia-possible-scenarios-1.6295949
> 
> 
> 
> Finally some Canadian media coverage


I bet 99% of Canadians don't even know we already have soldiers in the Ukraine acting as Advisors.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I bet 99% of Canadians don't even know we already have soldiers in the Ukraine acting as Advisors.



.. or know where the Ukraine is. Or care, of course.


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I bet 99% of Canadians don't even know we already have soldiers in the Ukraine acting as Advisors.


And most couldn't care either, the Canadian population is so disconnected from world affairs we are essentially defacto isolationists even if our government is not (barely)


----------



## The Bread Guy

daftandbarmy said:


> .. or know where the Ukraine is. Or care, of course.


Let's not forget something in the neighbourhood of 4% of Canadians are of Ukrainian birth or extraction - and I can't find figures of how many Canadians are living in Ukraine right now.  

I'd bet a loonie or two that Ukrainians, as a bloc, would be able to twist political arms reasonably effectively in Canada if push came to shove.  What Canada would _do_ is another matter, but I don't think this is as misunderstood or forgotten as some think.

During the Yugo fracas in the early 90's, I suspect there were a lot fewer Croats & Serbs in Canada than that, and not only did they pay attention and make others pay attention, some of them went to fight.  Not huge numbers, to be sure, but still ....


MilEME09 said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-russia-possible-scenarios-1.6295949
> 
> 
> 
> Finally some Canadian media coverage


There's been a fair bit of Canadian media coverage (some picked-up wire service copy, but also a fair bit of chased stories as well) - check here from the end of October to 1 Dec.


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> And most couldn't care either, the Canadian population is so disconnected from world affairs we are essentially defacto isolationists even if our government is not (barely)


Oh, I think our federal government is right out of it, too. It thinks the Twitterverse is more real to the Neolurentian Elite, than anything outside our physical borders. 

Enough Canadians support Team Virtue Signal that we have what we have…
​


----------



## lenaitch

MilEME09 said:


> And most couldn't care either, the Canadian population is so disconnected from world affairs we are essentially defacto isolationists even if our government is not (barely)


We've come feel this way because many believe Big Brother will protect us and look after our interests, and no government has attempted to dissuade this.  It's cheaper to keep up the illusion.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

The Bread Guy said:


> Let's not forget something in the neighbourhood of 4% of Canadians are of Ukrainian birth or extraction - and I can't find figures of how many Canadians are living in Ukraine right now.
> 
> I'd bet a loonie or two that Ukrainians, as a bloc, would be able to twist political arms reasonably effectively in Canada if push came to shove.  What Canada would _do_ is another matter, but I don't think this is as misunderstood or forgotten as some think.
> 
> During the Yugo fracas in the early 90's, I suspect there were a lot fewer Croats & Serbs in Canada than that, and not only did they pay attention and make others pay attention, some of them went to fight.  Not huge numbers, to be sure, but still ....
> 
> There's been a fair bit of Canadian media coverage (some picked-up wire service copy, but also a fair bit of chased stories as well) - check here from the end of October to 1 Dec.


And don't forget that Chrystia Freeland  (Deputy PM, Finance Minister, etc, etc) is of Ukrainian descent and when she was an exchange student in Kiev in the late '80s worked tirelessly for Ukrainian independence. This G & M article from October details some of her activities and extracts from KGB reports who had her under surveillance.


----------



## Altair

Retired AF Guy said:


> And don't forget that Chrystia Freeland  (Deputy PM, Finance Minister, etc, etc) is of Ukrainian descent and when she was an exchange student in Kiev in the late '80s worked tirelessly for Ukrainian independence. This G & M article from October details some of her activities and extracts from KGB reports who had her under surveillance.


And what do you think she would have Canada do?


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Altair said:


> And what do you think she would have Canada do?


Herself? Not much, since its the PM/PMO who calls the shots. 

But things that Canada could do is increased sanctions against Russian entities (that haven't already been sanctioned); freezing assets held by Russian companies/oligarchs in Canada; increased economic aid to Ukraine; declaring a few Russian Embassy staff _persona non grata; _and, training Ukrainian military personnel here in Canada.


----------



## MilEME09

Retired AF Guy said:


> Herself? Not much, since its the PM/PMO who calls the shots.
> 
> But things that Canada could do is increased sanctions against Russian entities (that haven't already been sanctioned); freezing assets held by Russian companies/oligarchs in Canada; increased economic aid to Ukraine; declaring a few Russian Embassy staff _persona non grata; _and, training Ukrainian military personnel here in Canada.


Could also pitch to Ukraine ships, use the NSS to replace the Kingston early and give the Kingston to Ukraine.


----------



## Altair

Retired AF Guy said:


> Herself? Not much, since its the PM/PMO who calls the shots.
> 
> But things that Canada could do is increased sanctions against Russian entities (that haven't already been sanctioned); freezing assets held by Russian companies/oligarchs in Canada; increased economic aid to Ukraine; declaring a few Russian Embassy staff _persona non grata; _and, training Ukrainian military personnel here in Canada.


I'm not sure that would stop Russian tanks.


----------



## suffolkowner

Weren't they floating the idea of stationing CF-18's in Ukraine a month ago? Kinda risky


----------



## The Bread Guy

suffolkowner said:


> Weren't they floating the idea of stationing CF-18's in Ukraine a month ago? Kinda risky


If the _Globe & Mail_ got it right, yup - this from 24 Nov (archived version if previous link doesn't work) ...


> ... Two sources with knowledge of the deliberations said Defence Minister Anita Anand is considering deploying hundreds of additional troops to support the Canadian soldiers already in Ukraine on a training mission. Other options being looked at include moving a warship into the Black Sea, or redeploying some of the CF-18 fighter jets based in Romania ...


----------



## MilEME09

The last thing we need is some trigger happy Russian dropping an F18 over Ukraine.....


----------



## blacktriangle

MilEME09 said:


> The last thing we need is some trigger happy Russian dropping an F18 over Ukraine.....


Or a piece of a CF-18 dropping on a Russian...


----------



## MilEME09

Foreign Fighters Vow to Support Ukraine Against Russian Invasion
					

Should Russia attack Ukraine again, a wave of foreign fighters may join other foreigners already serving in Ukraine's military.




					coffeeordie.com
				




Interesting take on the number of foreign fighters on the Ukrainian side


----------



## The Bread Guy

Altair said:


> And what do you think she would have Canada do?


You're right about she, by herself, not necessarily having a lot of pull at the table.  But she becomes an informed voice at the table able to share the realities of the situation in Ukraine in a way that maybe someone else may not.  

And if she's smart, she'll get other Ukrainians and pro-Ukrainian groups start twisting party arms higher up the chain to get something done.

True, no guarantees given the central control that seems to be in play, but not zero influence, either.


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> Foreign Fighters Vow to Support Ukraine Against Russian Invasion
> 
> 
> Should Russia attack Ukraine again, a wave of foreign fighters may join other foreigners already serving in Ukraine's military.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> coffeeordie.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Interesting take on the number of foreign fighters on the Ukrainian side


3000 out of 4000 were Russians and no mention of any Canadians. 3 yr service contract very interesting


The Bread Guy said:


> You're right about she, by herself, not necessarily having a lot of pull at the table.  But she becomes an informed voice at the table able to share the realities of the situation in Ukraine in a way that maybe someone else may not.
> 
> And if she's smart, she'll get other Ukrainians and pro-Ukrainian groups start twisting party arms higher up the chain to get something done.
> 
> True, no guarantees given the central control that seems to be in play, but not zero influence, either.


I wouldn't downplay her pull rumour has it that it was only her word and support that kept Trudeau in as PM and that the PM was hers otherwise during the whole Gropegate/Blackface/Wegate debacle


----------



## The Bread Guy

suffolkowner said:


> ... rumour has it that it was only her word and support that kept Trudeau in as PM and that the PM was hers otherwise during the whole Gropegate/Blackface/Wegate debacle


If that's true, then he may owe her - and who knows if this'll be the file she'll call him on for a DEAL-deal.


----------



## Weinie

The Bread Guy said:


> If that's true, then he may owe her - and who knows if this'll be the file she'll call him on for a DEAL-deal.


Mayhaps, but what really can Canada do, other than pursue sanctions, which the Russians will ignore.


----------



## MilEME09

Weinie said:


> Mayhaps, but what really can Canada do, other than pursue sanctions, which the Russians will ignore.


If we were smart, and that's a big if, create and fast track a project to get LNG to Europe, if Europe can get off Russian gas, its check mate for russias economy


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> If we were smart, and that's a big if, create and fast track a project to get LNG to Europe, if Europe can get off Russian gas, its check mate for russias economy


That has been one of our biggest failures as a country from an energy/economic/and now clearly strategic errors over the last 40 yrs. Can it be fixed? Is it actually possible for us to get LNG online quickly? I know we have oil and gas lines running all over the place but getting new ones built has been an issue. This is one of the reasons I was never in favour of Energy East, I just didn't see the point of converting from NG to oil









						Canada Pipeline Maps & Facts | Trans Mountain Pipeline, Keystone XL, Enbridge Line 3
					

Canada's pipelines deliver energy to Canadians and export markets like the United States. Pipelines are the safest way to move large volumes of oil and natural gas.




					www.capp.ca


----------



## Weinie

MilEME09 said:


> If we were smart, and that's a big if, create and fast track a project to get LNG to Europe, if Europe can get off Russian gas, its check mate for russias economy


My math may be a bit off, but at approx 9 billion cubic metres daily use of natural gas for Germany, that would take approximately 100 LNG tankers a day for Germany alone.


----------



## suffolkowner

Weinie said:


> My math may be a bit off, but at approx 9 billion cubic metres daily use of natural gas for Germany, that would take approximately 100 LNG tankers a day for Germany alone.


so not likely then?!









						A Flotilla of U.S. LNG Cargoes Is Headed to Fuel-Starved Europe
					






					www.bloomberg.com
				




again too bad we can't help and take advantage of the situation


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> so not likely then?!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A Flotilla of U.S. LNG Cargoes Is Headed to Fuel-Starved Europe
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.bloomberg.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> again too bad we can't help and take advantage of the situation


Unfortunately the only alternative would be a long pipe line via green land and Iceland to the UK. Such a mega project would be an engineering nightmare. Canada and the US could provides Europe's natural gas needs, we just can't get it there for now


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> Unfortunately the only alternative would be a long pipe line via green land and Iceland to the UK. Such a mega project would be an engineering nightmare. Canada and the US could provides Europe's natural gas needs, we just can't get it there for now


Yeah not likely to happen if it hasn't already. I know theres always been lots of talk of LNG through BC but has there ever been any real attempts to move more NG east?


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> If we were smart, and that's a big if, create and fast track a project to get LNG to Europe, if Europe can get off Russian gas, its check mate for russias economy


"We" would have to be both smart *and* quick ...


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> If we were smart, and that's a big if, create and fast track a project to get LNG to Europe, if Europe can get off Russian gas, its check mate for russias economy


Can you imagine the catastrophic failure that would happen if after such a costly mega project Russia and Europe mend fences and Russian oil and gas would be much cheaper than NA oil and gas due to not needing to recoup costs from said mega project?


----------



## suffolkowner

I'm curious how Europe is going to compete with China for Russia's oil and gas in the near future?


----------



## suffolkowner

Some Russian troops reportedly withdraw from Ukraine border area
					

Russia's Interfax news, citing the military, reports that 10,000 troops are returning to their "permanent deployment points" from the border region.




					www.npr.org
				




an easing maybe or more deception?


----------



## Altair

suffolkowner said:


> I'm curious how Europe is going to compete with China for Russia's oil and gas in the near future?


Probably transition off of it before China goes all in on it.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> But she becomes an informed voice at the table able to share the realities of the situation in Ukraine in a way that maybe someone else may not.



Based on being an exchange student almost 40 years ago, or something more recent?


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> If we were smart, and that's a big if, create and fast track a project to get LNG to Europe, if Europe can get off Russian gas, its check mate for russias economy


Except we aren't smart:









						Philip Cross: A lump of hydrocarbon you really want in your stocking
					

This importance of low-cost energy to economic growth is seldom acknowledged in trendy calls for a transition from fossil fuels to renewables




					financialpost.com
				






> Canadians often seem embarrassed by their wealth of natural resources, especially the oil sands. Other countries, such as the U.S. and Russia, view their energy resources as a strategic asset. This is evident in the panicked reaction to Michigan’s threat to cut off oil shipments to Ontario through the Line 5 pipeline or Russia’s regular manipulation of natural gas exports to extract favours from client nations in Europe.


----------



## YZT580

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Except we aren't smart:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Philip Cross: A lump of hydrocarbon you really want in your stocking
> 
> 
> This importance of low-cost energy to economic growth is seldom acknowledged in trendy calls for a transition from fossil fuels to renewables
> 
> 
> 
> 
> financialpost.com


We can't even agree on a way to increase shipments to the east coast.  Witness the pipeline blockage at the Quebec border.


----------



## The Bread Guy

A few tidbits (archive links provided in case links don't work or if you don't want to link to a Russian server) ....

*"Training Civilians, Ukraine Nurtures a Resistance in Waiting"* (NY Times - archived link)
_"__*Russian mercenaries have deployed to separatist-controlled eastern Ukraine in recent weeks to bolster defences against Ukrainian government forces*__ as tensions between Moscow and the West rise, four sources have told Reuters ..."_
_*"Officials from the self-proclaimed Donbass republic have repeatedly accused Kiev of using foreign mercenaries and neo-Nazi volunteer battalions to compensate for a dearth of conscripts willing to fight* ..."_ (RUS state media - archived link)
*"Russian MFA expects world community to weigh in on neo-Nazism in Ukraine"* (RUS state media - archive link)
_*"Russian energy giant Gazprom has rejected accusations that Moscow is limiting gas deliveries to Europe*__ and denounced Germany's resale of gas to Poland amid soaring prices.  Poland this week accused Moscow of having stopped its deliveries via the Yamal-Europe pipeline that sends Russian gas to Western Europe, accusing Gazprom of "manipulation" ..."_  (AFP via RUS independent media)
*"If Ukraine chooses to use military force to resolve the crisis in Donbas, Russia will defend the region and the people living in it, Sergei Tsekov, a Senator of the Federation Council said ..."* (Pravda.ru - yeah, THAT Pravda -- archive link)


----------



## The Bread Guy

We'll see ....

*"The United States and Russia will hold much-anticipated talks in January, a White House official told AFP Monday, with the rivals due to negotiate on nuclear arms control and mounting tensions over Ukraine ..." *(Agence-France Presse)
_*"U.S. and Russian officials will hold security talks on Jan. 10 to discuss concerns about their respective military activity and confront rising tensions over Ukraine, the two countries said ..."*_ (Reuters)
_*"The United States and Russia will hold talks in January about nuclear arms control and tensions along the Russia-Ukraine border ..."*_ (Voice of America, U.S.-government-funded/"state" media)
_*"The Russian-US consultations on security guarantees are scheduled for January 10 in Geneva, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told TASS on Tuesday ..."*_ (RUS state media - archive link)


----------



## CBH99

The Bread Guy said:


> We'll see ....
> 
> *"The United States and Russia will hold much-anticipated talks in January, a White House official told AFP Monday, with the rivals due to negotiate on nuclear arms control and mounting tensions over Ukraine ..." *(Agence-France Presse)
> _*"U.S. and Russian officials will hold security talks on Jan. 10 to discuss concerns about their respective military activity and confront rising tensions over Ukraine, the two countries said ..."*_ (Reuters)
> _*"The United States and Russia will hold talks in January about nuclear arms control and tensions along the Russia-Ukraine border ..."*_ (Voice of America, U.S.-government-funded/"state" media)
> _*"The Russian-US consultations on security guarantees are scheduled for January 10 in Geneva, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told TASS on Tuesday ..."*_ (RUS state media - archive link)


Talking is better than not talking.  So that’s good news for all of us.  

I hate to say it, I have more faith that the Russian side will come very prepared with fairly accurate info.  

The US side will show up with fairly accurate info, but not a plan with the kind of depth that Russia will have.  



Putin didn’t get to where he is because he’s dumb.  It’ll be interesting to see how it all falls into place.


----------



## CBH99

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Except we aren't smart:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Philip Cross: A lump of hydrocarbon you really want in your stocking
> 
> 
> This importance of low-cost energy to economic growth is seldom acknowledged in trendy calls for a transition from fossil fuels to renewables
> 
> 
> 
> 
> financialpost.com


We aren’t even close to smart.  

We are the well dressed, articulate person who smiles and shakes hands.  Is charismatic and charming, and who makes the company they are with at ease.  

But when you take a step back and objectively listen to what that person says, they are dumb as a f**king brick.  

I feel like Canada, in it’s current form, is that person.  Ontario shouldn’t have to care whether Michigan turns off the oil taps…



And if Ottawa can tell Alberta NOT to build pipelines, can it also not tell Quebec TO build pipelines?

Alberta oil projects are among some of the most environmentally friendly in the world.   Were they always?  No.  

The industry, culture, technology, and regulations have changed drastically since then.  

Can Saudi Arabia say the same?


----------



## Spencer100

CBH99 said:


> We aren’t even close to smart.
> 
> We are the well dressed, articulate person who smiles and shakes hands.  Is charismatic and charming, and who makes the company they are with at ease.
> 
> But when you take a step back and objectively listen to what that person says, they are dumb as a f**king brick.
> 
> I feel like Canada, in it’s current form, is that person.  Ontario shouldn’t have to care whether Michigan turns off the oil taps…
> 
> 
> 
> And if Ottawa can tell Alberta NOT to build pipelines, can it also not tell Quebec TO build pipelines?
> 
> Alberta oil projects are among some of the most environmentally friendly in the world.   Were they always?  No.
> 
> The industry, culture, technology, and regulations have changed drastically since then.
> 
> Can Saudi Arabia say the same?


Canada has been played.   We have been out maneuvered by US and others interested in Canadian oil remaining in the ground. Using Environmental groups as fronts to stop pipelines and new development.   Every time the industry improves they move the goal posts.  Railways pay money to environment groups to stop pipelines, SA pays First Nations to stop oil sands development etc.  Others pay to stop other development because Canadian oil is sold at a discount into the US.  Its a game and we are less than pawns.  Behind every "environmental" group or First nations lobby is a international financial backer in the end.  We let this happen.  Because the power brokers in the big cities are one paid off, two using it as a political wedge, or three true believers and useful idiots.


----------



## KevinB

Weinie said:


> Mayhaps, but what really can Canada do, other than pursue sanctions, which the Russians will ignore.


Move 1 CBMG to the Ukraine for a Partnership for Peace Exercise.
   Sure it would be militarily insignificant, but Russia wouldn't want to do much to a fairly benign NATO country, because of the potential the US and UK would use that as an Article #5


----------



## MilEME09

Spencer100 said:


> Canada has been played.   We have been out maneuvered by US and others interested in Canadian oil remaining in the ground. Using Environmental groups as fronts to stop pipelines and new development.   Every time the industry improves they move the goal posts.  Railways pay money to environment groups to stop pipelines, SA pays First Nations to stop oil sands development etc.  Others pay to stop other development because Canadian oil is sold at a discount into the US.  Its a game and we are less than pawns.  Behind every "environmental" group or First nations lobby is a international financial backer in the end.  We let this happen.  Because the power brokers in the big cities are one paid off, two using it as a political wedge, or three true believers and useful idiots.


Part of the problem is we let these groups enjoy non-profit status, if they had to pay tax on the millions in donations, and had to have public record keeping, we could follow the money.


----------



## CBH99

KevinB said:


> Move 1 CBMG to the Ukraine for a Partnership for Peace Exercise.
> Sure it would be militarily insignificant, but Russia wouldn't want to do much to a fairly benign NATO country, because of the potential the US and UK would use that as an Article #5


My emoji says insightful.  It was meant vid genius.  

Smart strategic play.  👍🏻


----------



## MilEME09

CBH99 said:


> My emoji says insightful.  It was meant vid genius.
> 
> Smart strategic play.  👍🏻


Top it off with a couple ships rotating in and out of Odessa, and some F18s to support 1 CMBG, and you have a potent force


----------



## suffolkowner

KevinB said:


> Move 1 CBMG to the Ukraine for a Partnership for Peace Exercise.
> Sure it would be militarily insignificant, but Russia wouldn't want to do much to a fairly benign NATO country, because of the potential the US and UK would use that as an Article #5


Would article 5 apply if our forces were in or defending a non nato country?


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> Would article 5 apply if our forces were in or defending a non nato country?


It can, but that depends on what the alliance decides


----------



## suffolkowner

KevinB said:


> Move 1 CBMG to the Ukraine for a Partnership for Peace Exercise.
> Sure it would be militarily insignificant, but Russia wouldn't want to do much to a fairly benign NATO country, because of the potential the US and UK would use that as an Article #5


combine this with the new tank thread and just get Ukraine to supply us with new T-84's half in Ukraine and half in Canada problem solved all the way around. Money and support for Ukraine and new tanks for Canada


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> combine this with the new tank thread and just get Ukraine to supply us with new T-84's half in Ukraine and half in Canada problem solved all the way around. Money and support for Ukraine and new tanks for Canada


You really wouldn't want that, the T-84 still has all the weaknesses of the T-80 family. The T line is not designed for crew survivability, people are cheap in eastern block doctrine


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> You really wouldn't want that, the T-84 still has all the weaknesses of the T-80 family. The T line is not designed for crew survivability, people are cheap in eastern block doctrine


That's why we're rocking with the autolaoder and one less person  . The new ones are outfitte with reactive armour and a APS at least. Wikipedia says that instead of any ceramic armour they had to use rubber, anyway sounds questionable hopefully they have moved beyond that. Obviously it was a joke post but what would you say are it's real weaknesses?


----------



## KevinB

suffolkowner said:


> Would article 5 apply if our forces were in or defending a non nato country?


Yes, Article 5 doesn't have a requirement for you to be attacked within the sovereign area of your country -- Article 5 has been used for stuff in African and the Middle East...

 You could theoretically ask NATO to invoke Article 5 if you had a concentration of civilians in an area that was attacked.



MilEME09 said:


> It can, but that depends on what the alliance decides











						Collective defence and Article 5
					

The principle of collective defence is at the very heart of NATO’s founding treaty. It remains a unique and enduring principle that binds its members together, committing them to protect each other and setting a spirit of solidarity within the Alliance.




					www.nato.int
				




Given the Alliance effectively couldn't say no due to other incidents, I don't think it would be a long vote.


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> That's why we're rocking with the autolaoder and one less person  . The new ones are outfitte with reactive armour and a APS at least. Wikipedia says that instead of any ceramic armour they had to use rubber, anyway sounds questionable hopefully they have moved beyond that. Obviously it was a joke post but what would you say are it's real weaknesses?


Reliability and maintenance, and every T series stores ammo around the turret ring, one hit and it all goes up, dead crew.


----------



## Spencer100

KevinB said:


> Yes, Article 5 doesn't have a requirement for you to be attacked within the sovereign area of your country -- Article 5 has been used for stuff in African and the Middle East...
> 
> You could theoretically ask NATO to invoke Article 5 if you had a concentration of civilians in an area that was attacked.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Collective defence and Article 5
> 
> 
> The principle of collective defence is at the very heart of NATO’s founding treaty. It remains a unique and enduring principle that binds its members together, committing them to protect each other and setting a spirit of solidarity within the Alliance.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nato.int
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Given the Alliance effectively couldn't say no due to other incidents, I don't think it would be a long vote.


cough cough...Falklands.


----------



## MilEME09

Spencer100 said:


> cough cough...Falklands.


Was article 5 even invoked for that? I thought for national pride they went it alone


----------



## Spencer100

KevinB said:


> Move 1 CBMG to the Ukraine for a Partnership for Peace Exercise.
> Sure it would be militarily insignificant, but Russia wouldn't want to do much to a fairly benign NATO country, because of the potential the US and UK would use that as an Article #5


I guess we could but why?  As it looks now the USA is going to write the Ukraine off.  Germany will not lift a figire. With the current US admin it looks also like Taiwan is a goner too.   I think if we were starting to think about moving troops I would suspect someone would get a message from Washington that we are not allowed to do it.


----------



## Spencer100

MilEME09 said:


> Was article 5 even invoked for that? I thought for national pride they went it alone


 That and I was under the impression that the UK was encouraged not to bring it up as it would hurt the alliance.  Invoking Art. 5 could at that time could put a rift in the alliance and show weakness to the USSR.


----------



## MilEME09

Spencer100 said:


> I guess we could but why?  As it looks now the USA is going to write the Ukraine off.  Germany will not lift a figire. With the current US admin it looks also like Taiwan is a goner too.   I think if we were starting to think about moving troops I would suspect someone would get a message from Washington that we are not allowed to do it.


Some NATO members may not care but you can bet every former eastern block country does, and they don't want more Russian, and Russian friendly troops on their borders.


----------



## KevinB

Spencer100 said:


> That and I was under the impression that the UK was encouraged not to bring it up as it would hurt the alliance.  Invoking Art. 5 could at that time could put a rift in the alliance and show weakness to the USSR.


Actually at the time there was support in NATO - but the UK didn't chose to invoke it.
  There was a lot of support behind the scenes though.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> Some NATO members may not care but you can bet every former eastern block country does, and they don't want more Russian, and Russian friendly troops on their borders.


Best way to break up NATO is having some members respond to article 5 and others deciding they will not.


----------



## Spencer100

Altair said:


> Best way to break up NATO is having some members respond to article 5 and others deciding they will not.



I think that is some or the main calculus of the Russian moves.  I think Putin is playing the game well and see things as they are.  



MilEME09 said:


> Some NATO members may not care but you can bet every former eastern block country does, and they don't want more Russian, and Russian friendly troops on their borders.



I would not put it past the US (and some other EU countries too) to write those members off too at this point.  But I doubt it will come to that.  Putin will get a piece of what he is looking for.  Money and land.  Pull back and declare it a win.  Then monies with flow.  Oil prices will remain high.  Contracts signed with the EU.  No war.  

But there is always the chance of miscalculations.  One side move or push too hard.  As a society we totally and utterly unprepared  for any kind of war/conflict with a peer/near peer.   Just the cyberwarfare alone would knock much of the west off balance.  Imagine if people could not unlock the doors to there houses!  Or Tok Tik is down....come to think of it that one would remain up.   

I think it comes down to conflict we will have lost in the first few days even with shots not being fired.  Power generation down, internet down, large scale misinformation,  supply chain disruptions, fifth column attacks etc.  

So the people in Washington and else where know this.


----------



## KevinB

Spencer100 said:


> I think that is some or the main calculus of the Russian moves.  I think Putin is playing the game well and see things as they are.
> 
> 
> 
> I would not put it past the US (and some other EU countries too) to write those members off too at this point.  But I doubt it will come to that.  Putin will get a piece of what he is looking for.  Money and land.  Pull back and declare it a win.  Then monies with flow.  Oil prices will remain high.  Contracts signed with the EU.  No war.
> 
> But there is always the chance of miscalculations.  One side move or push too hard.  As a society we totally and utterly unprepared  for any kind of war/conflict with a peer/near peer.   Just the cyberwarfare alone would knock much of the west off balance.  Imagine if people could not unlock the doors to there houses!  Or Tok Tik is down....come to think of it that one would remain up.
> 
> I think it comes down to conflict we will have lost in the first few days even with shots not being fired.  Power generation down, internet down, large scale misinformation,  supply chain disruptions, fifth column attacks etc.
> 
> So the people in Washington and else where know this.


You seem to discount that the West has those same abilities.
   The difference is we have a lot of redundant systems the Russians don't.
 Our capability is signally larger - our will is the issue.


----------



## Spencer100

KevinB said:


> You seem to discount that the West has those same abilities.
> The difference is we have a lot of redundant systems the Russians don't.
> Our capability is signally larger - our will is the issue.


I think we have the point...it's the will.  You knock Russian power out.....in some places will they notice?    Or in reality the people will make do.  Russian or an American without power which will be better at dealing with it?


----------



## suffolkowner

In the end I think a deal will be made and water will be turned back on to the Crimea and the Donbas areas will remain separate entities. Russian pride satisfied and Ukraine forced to back down a little but in reality not give up much


----------



## Altair

suffolkowner said:


> In the end I think a deal will be made and water will be turned back on to the Crimea and the Donbas areas will remain separate entities. Russian pride satisfied and Ukraine forced to back down a little but in reality not give up much


Unless NATO pulls out all training missions in Ukraine, I don't think that will be enough for Russia.

They have laid out their ultimatum. Written guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO. If Russia cannot at least get western troops out of Ukraine, never mind the guarantee that NATO will not allow, then I think things go hot in February. Another Olympic invasion.


----------



## MilEME09

Altair said:


> Unless NATO pulls out all training missions in Ukraine, I don't think that will be enough for Russia.
> 
> They have laid out their ultimatum. Written guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO. If Russia cannot at least get western troops out of Ukraine, never mind the guarantee that NATO will not allow, then I think things go hot in February. Another Olympic invasion.


With how ridiculous their demands already are, these talks seem like cover for me. I'd even wager the invasion happens before the talks to give them a stronger hand at the table.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> With how ridiculous their demands already are, these talks seem like cover for me. I'd even wager the invasion happens before the talks to give them a stronger hand at the table.


Maybe, but I'm just going off of recent history right now. Georgia happened during the Olympics, Crimea happened right after the Olympics, so these talks happening in January with the Olympics in early February just seems too convenient for me to discount. 

To me these talks are the last ditch effort from Russia showing the west and NATO how serious they are when it comes to invading Ukraine if their demands are not met, and a last ditch effort from the west to convey how much serious they are when it comes to sanctions and financial punishment if Russia goes ahead, while meeting none of the Russian demands.


----------



## MilEME09

Sanctions mean nothing to Russia, they are superficial in most cases. The threat from the US to cut Russia off from the banking transfer system is about the biggest thing yet, but it's still fairly week, Russia is king of finding loop holes and ways around Sanctions.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> Sanctions mean nothing to Russia, they are superficial in most cases.


Absolutely. 


MilEME09 said:


> The threat from the US to cut Russia off from the banking transfer system is about the biggest thing yet, but it's still fairly week, Russia is king of finding loop holes and ways around Sanctions.


Agreed, especially if they can still bank in China. 

Which is why I say the west has been playing this incredibly poorly. They needed to threaten Russia militarily to get them to back down. Barring that, they needed to flood Ukraine with weapons. Barring that, they needed to fully cut Russian oil and gas out of the European market (with a marshall plan type effort to replace Russian oil and gas in Europe during the end of winter)

They will do none of that.


----------



## YZT580

Altair said:


> Best way to break up NATO is having some members respond to article 5 and others deciding they will not.


If Russia invades Ukraine and Europe keeps buying gas then NATO is toast anyways.


----------



## Altair

YZT580 said:


> If Russia invades Ukraine and Europe keeps buying gas then NATO is toast anyways.


NATO 1949-2022

RIP


----------



## CBH99

YZT580 said:


> If Russia invades Ukraine and Europe keeps buying gas then NATO is toast anyways.


Putin must realize this. 

And much of Europe doesn’t have a choice but to keep buying gas.  Especially during this time of year.


----------



## The Bread Guy

suffolkowner said:


> Some Russian troops reportedly withdraw from Ukraine border area
> 
> 
> Russia's Interfax news, citing the military, reports that 10,000 troops are returning to their "permanent deployment points" from the border region.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.npr.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> an easing maybe or more deception?


Good question .... 


> *Recent media reports about Russia withdrawing 10,000 troops from near Ukraine are inaccurate and primarily a result of misleading Western reporting, not a Russian misinformation campaign.* Russia’s Southern Military District (SMD) stated on December 25 that over 10,000 personnel from unspecified SMD units finished exercises in Rostov, Kuban, Crimea, Astrakhan, Volgograd, Stavropol, "in the Republics of the North Caucasus," Armenia, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia, and would redeploy to their permanent garrisons on December 25.[1] Kremlin media did not prominently cover the SMD announcement as it would if this were a Russian information campaign.
> 
> *The SMD statement did not frame this development as a de-escalation against Ukraine, and in fact, stressed the high readiness level of the SMD’s forces. *The statement claims that the SMD units completed training, that the equipment they used will be fully serviced and brought back into readiness before the end of 2021 “for further operation according to the plan for the winter training period,” and states that SMD units will be assigned new tasks to maintain high combat readiness to be able to respond to possible “emergency situations” during the New Year holidays ...


What else was happening in the broader neighbourhood, according to the RUS MoD English-language info-machine? (all links are to archived versions of the articles to avoid clicking on a RUS server)

_*"Baltic Fleet marines eliminate saboteurs in Kaliningrad region"*_
_*"A detachment of ships of the Black Sea Fleet passed the Strait of Gibraltar and entered the waters of the Mediterranean Sea"*_
*"The Su-27SM3 crews of the Southern Military District worked out fighter cover of an air patrol over the Black Sea"*


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> Good question ....
> 
> What else was happening in the broader neighbourhood, according to the RUS MoD English-language info-machine? (all links are to archived versions of the articles to avoid clicking on a RUS server)
> 
> _*"Baltic Fleet marines eliminate saboteurs in Kaliningrad region"*_
> _*"A detachment of ships of the Black Sea Fleet passed the Strait of Gibraltar and entered the waters of the Mediterranean Sea"*_
> *"The Su-27SM3 crews of the Southern Military District worked out fighter cover of an air patrol over the Black Sea"*


Seems like more posturing, my question is, are they stock piling fuel, munitions, and supplies near the front? Russia hasn't been known for having a good logistics train since the fall of the soviet union. While I have heard they have gotten better, it's not what it once was, and I question how long they could supply large scale operations.


----------



## Brad Sallows

Europe should agree to let Russia have part, or even all of Ukraine.  Russian ambition will end there, and Europe will enjoy peace in our time.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> Seems like more posturing, my question is, are they stock piling fuel, munitions, and supplies near the front? Russia hasn't been known for having a good logistics train since the fall of the soviet union. While I have heard they have gotten better, it's not what it once was, and I question how long they could supply large scale operations.


I don't know, they moved a 100,000 soldiers and with photos like these:






They clearly do logistics.  Russian logistics is centered on rail transport though and their gauge is only available in Eastern Europe.  They do maintain 10 railway brigades and have the ability to lay and repair track.

Their rail gauges run in to Belarus, Ukraine and the Baltic States.  They have the ability to move a lot of equipment relatively quickly over long distances in these areas.  Outside of that, they would need to rely on trucks.


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I don't know, they moved a 100,000 soldiers and with photos like these:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> They clearly do logistics.  Russian logistics is centered on rail transport though and their gauge is only available in Eastern Europe.  They do maintain 10 railway brigades and have the ability to lay and repair track.
> 
> Their rail gauges run in to Belarus, Ukraine and the Baltic States.  They have the ability to move a lot of equipment relatively quickly over long distances in these areas.  Outside of that, they would need to rely on trucks.


Notice though the lack of a dumping program, you aren't seeing large caches of anything, lots of trucks, but they could be empty


----------



## Czech_pivo

Brad Sallows said:


> Europe should agree to let Russia have part, or even all of Ukraine.  Russian ambition will end there, and Europe will enjoy peace in our time.


Wow.
You could have been used in March of ‘38. Worked wonders for the Czechs didn’t it?


----------



## Brad Sallows

I thought the sarcasm inherent in a "peace in our time" reference would have been obvious...

Given enough time, all the things people list under "never again" become tolerable.  Talk is much cheaper than effective deterrence, but effective deterrence is much cheaper than war.


----------



## YZT580

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I don't know, they moved a 100,000 soldiers and with photos like these:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> They clearly do logistics.  Russian logistics is centered on rail transport though and their gauge is only available in Eastern Europe.  They do maintain 10 railway brigades and have the ability to lay and repair track.
> 
> Their rail gauges run in to Belarus, Ukraine and the Baltic States.  They have the ability to move a lot of equipment relatively quickly over long distances in these areas.  Outside of that, they would need to rely on trucks.


and you don't think the tracks in Ukraine are already wired?


----------



## Blackadder1916

MilEME09 said:


> Notice though the lack of a dumping program, you aren't seeing large caches of anything, lots of trucks, but they could be empty



Russian Ground Forces may have changed considerably in the several decades since I paid close attention to the limitations of Soviet supply trains.  Back then it was as described in this report from the 1970s.

"At *division* and *regimental* levels, mobile supply dumps are established approximately 30 km and 15 km respectively from the FEBA.  *Supplies are kept loaded on motor transportation* as much as possible to insure rapid redeployment forward.  Off loading is kept to a minimum and if done , the supplies are usually palletized."

Apparently not much has changed as discussed in this recent commentary from War On The Rocks FEEDING THE BEAR: A CLOSER LOOK AT RUSSIAN ARMY LOGISTICS AND THE FAIT ACCOMPLI.

The commercial satellite photos are apparently showing "tactical battle groups" so it is not surprising that "dumps" (as we know them) are not visible nearby.  What would be more telling is the locations of these troop concentrations.  An analysis of what rail heads are in the communities nearby and the road networks that emanate from those railheads would tell the real story about their logistical chain.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Brad Sallows said:


> I thought the sarcasm inherent in a "peace in our time" reference would have been obvious...


I caught the ref, but I guess not everyone did.


Brad Sallows said:


> Given enough time, all the things people list under "never again" become tolerable ...


👍


----------



## Czech_pivo

YZT580 said:


> and you don't think the tracks in Ukraine are already wired?


Have to wonder in the Ukkie’s have a few tricks up their sleeves as well. Won’t be surprised if they have people in Russia who would be tasked with blowing some of the rail lines leading up to the border regions. UON-B managed to last over 10yrs after 1945 in the Ukraine as partisans blowing up the odd Soviet supply column or assassinating a Commissar here or there.


----------



## OldSolduer

Brad Sallows said:


> Europe should agree to let Russia have part, or even all of Ukraine.  Russian ambition will end there, and Europe will enjoy peace in our time.


I think we've seen this play a few times - and it rarely worked out.


----------



## OldSolduer

Brad Sallows said:


> Given enough time, all the things people list under "never again" become tolerable.  Talk is much cheaper than effective deterrence, but effective deterrence is much cheaper than war.


Never again - genocide. Not curbed at all.


----------



## MilEME09

OldSolduer said:


> I think we've seen this play a few times - and it rarely worked out.


Georgia, Crimea, Donbas, how many more times will we let it play out?


----------



## OldSolduer

MilEME09 said:


> Georgia, Crimea, Donbas, how many more times will we let it play out?


I was referring to Austria pre WW2


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> Have to wonder in the Ukkie’s have a few tricks up their sleeves as well ...


As good as the Russian military may be, I wouldn't underestimate the thugs who helped out early against the eastern separatists, then got disbanded and/or absorbed into the UKR military because ... who wants political or oligarch-linked militias, right?


----------



## Czech_pivo

Here’s some background reading on what occurred in the Ukraine from the fall of 44 until the early 1950’s. Most notably a lot of this occurred in western Ukraine, an area today that is still hotly anti-Russian and would undoubtedly give them the most trouble.

“
According to the information which was suppressed for many years in the soviet archives, in the period from February 1944 to May 1946 about 111,000 UIA fighters were killed, 250,000 were arrested and imprisoned, and 203,000 were deported from Ukraine and placed in concentration camps. Within the same period of time, about 14,000 Soviet troops and members of punitive detachments engaged in operations against the OUN-UIA, died in battle. By one account, over 35,000 members of the Soviet secret police system were killed by the OUN-UPA after World War II. 

The Soviet regime imprisoned or deported to Siberia more than 900,000 residents of Ukraine. The peak of the deportations was a special operation called Zakhid (West) which was carried out on 21 October 1947. During the course of that one day 76,192 people were forcibly deported from Western Ukraine. The goal of the mass deportations was to destroy the base of the insurgent movement. 

In 1945–46, the Ukrainian insurgents gradually changed course from an active offensive to defensive methods; similarly, the scale of their operations was also gradually reduced. By 1946, the UPA operated only in the Carpathian Mountains and the Zakerzonnia region. But by late 1949, pursuant to a resolution of the Ukrainian Supreme Liberation Council and on orders from the Supreme Command of the UPA, they too were disbanded or demobilized. 

Between 1945 and 1950, Ukrainian insurgents carried out a number of operations on the territory of the Belorussian SSR, Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Romania. In 1950, UPA soldiers made an unsuccessful bid to carry out a raid into Lithuania in order to join their efforts with the Lithuanian insurgents, who were known as “forest brothers.”

The UPA operated with large-scale forces until the summer of 1945, when it was forced to reorganize because of heavy losses. Individual units were turned into smaller ones, and ailing, battle-fatigued, and elderly insurgents, as well as those with large families, were demobilized or assigned to the OUN regional network. After the late 1940s, the larger UPA units were disbanded.

The Ukrainian freedom fighters continued to operate in the conditions of the enemy’s all-out offensive and blockade, which lasted from late 1945 until July 1946. In the period from December 1945 to February 1946, 15,562 military-secret service operations took place during the so-called “Great Blockade.” As a result of these tactics, over 4,200 Ukrainian insurgents were killed, and more than 9,400 people were taken prisoner or arrested. A total of 130 armed formations of the Ukrainian underground were eliminated.”



			https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/ukraine-40s.html
		


The fellow who was the best man at my wedding had an uncle, he’s fathers oldest brother, who worked in Munich in the mid 1950s through 1970’s for VOA’s Ukrainian section and he used to tell some hell good stories of what they got up to back then to stir the pot for the Soviets.


----------



## Spencer100

I saw this on Quora.  I know its photo shopped.  Would be funny if true. I guess it means "dick"  lol.


----------



## The Bread Guy

A few recent tidbits ....

_*"Law on foundations of national resistance enters into force in Ukraine*__ -- On Saturday, January 1, the law "On the foundations of national resistance" adopted by the Verkhovna Rada in July 2021 enters into force in Ukraine.  According to the law, national resistance is an integral part of the comprehensive defense of the state, which includes a set of measures for the widest possible involvement of citizens of Ukraine in ensuring military security, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country, deterring and repelling aggression ..."_ (UKR media)
*"Ukraine Requires Women To Register for Military Conscription as Russia Threat Looms"* (Coffee or Die blog)
*"Ukrainian government expands military conscription among women"* (World Socialists)
*"Defense Ministry plans to revise list of professions liable for military service for women 'towards reduction' "* (UKR media)
*"Estonia plans to supply Ukraine with anti-tank weapons, howitzers"* (UKR media)
_*"State planning artillery, missile system supply to Ukrainian armed forces*__ -- The state is planning to provide significant numbers of artillery and missile systems to Ukraine amid concerns over a build-up of Russian military forces on its borders. Under international rules, permission will be needed from the United States and also Finland and Germany, the countries of origin of the equipment, before the aid can go ahead ..."_ (EST govt-funded media)


----------



## The Bread Guy

The Bread Guy said:


> ... I wouldn't underestimate the thugs who helped out early against the eastern separatists, then got disbanded and/or absorbed into the UKR military because ... who wants political or oligarch-linked militias, right?


Hints that some of those paramilitary types are being found useful -- the former head of a hard-right-wing paramilitary group has been appointed as a special advisor to UKR's CinC.  More on Right Sector here (and an American-fighting-in-Ukraine connection here).


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> Hints that some of those paramilitary types are being found useful -- the former head of a hard-right-wing paramilitary group has been appointed as a special advisor to UKR's CinC.  More on Right Sector here (and an American-fighting-in-Ukraine connection here).


Part of the reason Russia is trying so hard to discredit these groups, they are so due hard nationalists, they aren't being bought off by Russian agents. Corruption is still riff in the Ukrainian armed forces and government. If they can't stop officers from selling troop movements and battle plans, they will always fail.


----------



## The Bread Guy

So, how'd the call go?

From Biden's info-machine take


> ... The tone of the conversation between the two presidents was serious and substantive.  They each framed their positions as they’ve done in previous calls and also as they have done publicly.
> 
> President Biden laid out two paths, two aspects of the U.S. approach that will really depend on Russia’s actions in the period ahead.  One is a path of diplomacy leading toward a de-escalation of the situation, and the other is a path that’s more focused on deterrence, including serious costs and consequences should Russia choose to proceed with a further invasion of Ukraine.  And those costs include economic costs, include adjustments and augmentations of NATO force posture in Allied countries, and include additional assistance to Ukraine to enable it to further defend itself and its territory, as we’ve laid out previously ....


From Putin's info-machine take (links to archived version of official English statement)


> ... Vladimir Putin detailed the fundamental approaches underlying the Russian drafts of the Treaty between the Russian Federation and the United States of America and the Agreement between the Russian Federation and the member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. He stressed that the negotiations needed to produce solid legally binding guarantees ruling out NATO’s eastward expansion and the deployment of weapons that threaten Russia in the immediate vicinity of its borders.
> 
> (...)
> 
> Vladimir Putin gave an exhaustive response to the mention once again by Joseph Biden of the possibility of imposing “large-scale” sanctions in the event of an escalation of the situation around Ukraine. He suggested that this would be a grave error, de facto fraught with the danger of a complete breakdown in Russia-US relations ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> Part of the reason Russia is trying so hard to discredit these groups, they are so due hard nationalists, they aren't being bought off by Russian agents.


Then again, some of these guys (or at least a certain percentage of them) can serve as their own worst enemies, only needing a bit of poking as needed.

There's also a bit of ... synergy between at least some Ukraininan nationalists and Russian nationalists, so it can be a murky situation.

Not to mention a few of their ilk "slipping through" to get trained by NATO forces (more on that from September 2021 here), too.


MilEME09 said:


> Corruption is still riff in the Ukrainian armed forces and government. If they can't stop officers from selling troop movements and battle plans, they will always fail.


No denying that ....


----------



## MilEME09

Subscribe to read | Financial Times
					

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication




					amp.ft.com
				




In related news, the leader of Finlands opposition and atleast one senior person in the ruling coalition say it is time for Finland to apply for NATO membership.

If Finland joins NATO, our northern flank will become much larger, but Finland also has a credible military, and would give us the ability to lock down the Baltic fleet in St.petersburg.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> ... If Finland joins NATO, our northern flank will become much larger, but Finland also has a credible military, and would give us the ability to lock down the Baltic fleet in St.petersburg.


And comes with a history of making the Soviets pay dearly for poking them, even if the Finns ended up losing ground.


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> …and would give us the ability to lock down the Baltic fleet in St.petersburg.


…an added bonus to bringing in a 2.15% GDP defense spender investor into NATO.


----------



## daftandbarmy

The Bread Guy said:


> And comes with a history of making the Soviets pay dearly for poking them, even if the Finns ended up losing ground.



They also come with a significant reliance on Russian energy imports:

"Finland is heavily dependent on energy imports (*65% of primary energy is imported*). Russia represented 63 % of the total value (in EURs) of energy imports in 2016 with particularly high shares of fossil fuel imports from Russia. The next largest import sources to Finland are Nordic countries (Sweden 18% and Norway 4%)."



			https://tietokayttoon.fi/documents/1927382/2116852/5_2018_Finland's+security+of+supply+and+Russia%E2%80%99s+ability+to+influence+through+energy+under+energy+transition/84657180-68de-49c8-9fd9-d964d82ff7c3/5_2018_Finland's+security+of+supply+and+Russia%E2%80%99s+ability+to+influence+through+energy+under+energy+transition.pdf


----------



## FJAG

MilEME09 said:


> Subscribe to read | Financial Times
> 
> 
> News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication
> 
> 
> 
> 
> amp.ft.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In related news, the leader of Finlands opposition and atleast one senior person in the ruling coalition say it is time for Finland to apply for NATO membership.
> 
> If Finland joins NATO, our northern flank will become much larger, but Finland also has a credible military, and would give us the ability to lock down the Baltic fleet in St.petersburg.


Just what NATO needs. Another reason for Russia to become even more paranoid.


----------



## MilEME09

FJAG said:


> Just what NATO needs. Another reason for Russia to become even more paranoid.


Gives the northern military district something to do


----------



## Weinie

FJAG said:


> Just what NATO needs. Another reason for Russia to become even more paranoid.


Or perhaps Russia could decide that their current demands are untenable, and even non-NATO countries are saying so.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Weinie said:


> Or perhaps Russia could decide that their current demands are untenable, and even non-NATO countries are saying so.


Never say never, but if there's face to be lost, I don't see Russia backing down soon.

Meanwhile, how'd the latest chat between bosses go?  Whitehouse info-machine ....


> President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. spoke today (2 Jan) with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine. President Biden made clear that the United States and its allies and partners will respond decisively if Russia further invades Ukraine. The leaders expressed support for diplomatic efforts, starting next week with the bilateral Strategic Stability Dialogue, at NATO through the NATO-Russia Council, and at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. President Biden underscored the commitment of the United States and its allies and partners to the principle of “nothing about you without you.” He reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. He also expressed support for confidence-building measures to de-escalate tensions in Donbas and active diplomacy to advance the implementation of the Minsk Agreements, in support of the Normandy Format.


... vs UKR President's info-machine (my pers fave verb of the day: de-oligarchization)


> President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy had the third in the recent period telephone conversation with U.S. President Joseph Biden, which lasted more than an hour and a half.
> 
> The key topic of the talks is the situation in the east and near the borders of our state. Zelenskyy praised the active role of the United States in its settlement, noting the importance of international legal steps planned for January 2022.
> 
> "I appreciate the support of the United States for our proposal to hold a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Commission in the coming days," the Ukrainian head of state said.
> 
> He expressed gratitude for the U.S. President's support for the principle of "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine," as well as for the readiness of the United States to take decisive action if Russia's aggression against our state escalates.
> 
> The parties discussed the steps Ukraine is taking within the Minsk and Normandy formats, and stressed the importance of further diplomatic efforts.
> 
> "Today, it is about the future not only of Ukraine, but it is also about European security and world order based on rules and democratic values," Zelenskyy said.
> 
> The two leaders also discussed economic and energy security challenges. The President of Ukraine informed Biden about the progress of economic reforms in our country and the steps taken to strengthen stability and de-oligarchization.
> 
> During the talks the United States' continued support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity and its European integration aspirations was reiterated.


Meanwhile, another reason for Belarus to be pissed at Ukraine (links to archived version of BLR state media article - full text also attached if link doesn't work) ...


> The Belarusian Embassy has expressed a strong protest in connection with the growing radicalization of the anti-Belarusian position of Ukraine, reads a statement posted on the website of the Belarusian diplomatic mission, BelTA has learned.
> 
> "The Belarusian Embassy in Ukraine sent a note to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine condemning mass participation of activists of the self-exiled Belarusian extremist opposition under the flags of Belarusian collaborators and Third Reich puppets in a nationalist march held in Kiev on 1 January with the tacit acceptance of the Ukrainian authorities, and with wide coverage in the Ukrainian media, including national TV," the diplomatic mission said ...


----------



## MilEME09

The funny thing is, the more Russia pushes, the more Finland, sweaden , and others may want to join NATO.


----------



## Weinie

The Bread Guy said:


> Never say never, but if there's face to be lost, I don't see Russia backing down soon.
> 
> Meanwhile, how'd the latest chat between bosses go?  Whitehouse info-machine ....
> 
> ... vs UKR President's info-machine (my pers fave verb of the day: de-oligarchization)
> 
> Meanwhile, another reason for Belarus to be pissed at Ukraine (links to archived version of BLR state media article - full text also attached if link doesn't work) ...


Yeah, get that. But if we don’t want another “there will be peace in our time” moment, the world has to step up.


----------



## Altair

Weinie said:


> Yeah, get that. But if we don’t want another “there will be peace in our time” moment, the world has to step up.


----------



## suffolkowner

Not sure if this was posted anywhere before but Gazprom is pumping natural gas out of Europe via Yamal line while pumping it in via Nordstream and others. Oh those sneaky Russians









						European gas prices hit record as Russian flows via Yamal reverse
					

European gas prices hit a new record high on Tuesday after a pipeline that brings Russian gas to Germany switched to flow east, a move the Kremlin said had no political implications, while two big German customers said Gazprom was meeting supply obligations.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Spencer100

Here is a happy article.  Basically says the US has written off the Ukraine and planning to arm a civil resistance against the Russian occupation.  Many thoughts spring to mind...first Taiwan better do a deal with the CCP and hope for the best or buy every arm it can get its hands on. Second is this really what has become of the US and the West?









						Biden Slouches towards Catastrophe in Ukraine | National Review
					

The White House is writing off an ally to appease an enemy.




					www.nationalreview.com


----------



## MilEME09

Spencer100 said:


> Here is a happy article.  Basically says the US has written off the Ukraine and planning to arm a civil resistance against the Russian occupation.  Many thoughts spring to mind...first Taiwan better do a deal with the CCP and hope for the best or buy every arm it can get its hands on. Second is this really what has become of the US and the West?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Biden Slouches towards Catastrophe in Ukraine | National Review
> 
> 
> The White House is writing off an ally to appease an enemy.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nationalreview.com


Are you surprised? We don't have the will to actually stand up to Russia, we elect politicians based on feel good policies, not substance.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good to see ....


> U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke on January 6 with his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu and discussed "risk reduction near Ukraine’s borders," the Pentagon said in a brief statement.
> 
> "We're obviously still very concerned by what we're seeing," a U.S. defense official told Reuters, without commenting on the call itself.
> 
> The conversation comes amid Western concerns that Russia's buildup of around 100,000 troops near Ukraine’s borders could part of preparations for a potential invasion. Moscow has denied it ...


(A tiny bit) more from the Pentagon's info-machine ...


> Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby provided the following readout:
> 
> On January 6, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III spoke with Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoygu.  They discussed risk reduction near Ukraine’s borders.


----------



## MilEME09

U.S,. NATO rule out halt to expansion, reject Russian demands
					

The United States and NATO have roundly rejected Russian demands that the alliance not admit new members amid growing concerns that Russia may invade Ukraine, which aspires to join the alliance.



					www.ctvnews.ca
				




NATO says it's ready to respond "forcefully" to further Russian incursions


----------



## MilEME09

__





						Subscribe to read | Financial Times
					

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication




					amp.ft.com
				




Bold words from the head of NATO


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Subscribe to read | Financial Times
> 
> 
> News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication
> 
> 
> 
> 
> amp.ft.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Bold words from the head of NATO


Paywall…


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> Paywall…








> Nato has warned Moscow to abandon its belligerent foreign policy and co-operate with the west or face a military alliance steeled for conflict, on the eve of a week of intense diplomacy aimed at averting a Russian assault on Ukraine.
> 
> Jens Stoltenberg, Nato secretary-general, said the US-led defence pact was prepared for “a new armed conflict in Europe” should negotiations fail, as western officials readied for potential discussions with Moscow on reducing the size of military exercises, arms control and a pledge not to deploy US missiles in Ukraine.
> 
> “I am aware of Russia’s history. For centuries they have experienced conflict with neighbours,” he told the Financial Times. “[But] Russia has an alternative: to co-operate, to work with Nato.”
> President Vladimir Putin has denied any plan to invade. But he has warned of possible military action if the US and Nato ignore Moscow’s demands for new defence agreements that would severely reduce US and Nato capabilities in Europe. Russia claims those capabilities are a threat to its borders.
> 
> “It is possible to find together a path, a political way forward, and also to address Russia’s concerns . . . But there continues to be a risk of conflict,” Stoltenberg said in an interview. “Nato’s deterrence is credible and strong . . . We have to hope and work hard for the best, but be prepared for the worst.”
> 
> His warning comes ahead of formal talks between Russian and US officials in Geneva on Monday, followed by a meeting of the 30-member Nato alliance and a Russian delegation on Wednesday. A third meeting hosted by the broader Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe is set for Thursday.
> 
> Russia’s demands include a ban on Ukraine and other countries joining Nato and a Kremlin veto on alliance activities in member states that joined after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Stoltenberg said both of those were unacceptable because they breached Nato’s “core principles” of offering membership to all and defending allies equally.
> 
> Instead, Stoltenberg said the US and Nato were prepared to speak with Russia about possible risk-reduction measures “like arms control, on efforts to try to have more transparency on military activity, exercises, and also on lines of communications”





> Ruling out US missile deployments in Ukraine and discussing broader rules on missile systems in Europe were two areas where Washington saw possible scope for agreement, a senior Biden administration official said ahead of the talks, adding that it would be dependent on whether “Russia is willing to make a reciprocal commitment”.
> 
> The US was also “willing to explore the possibility of reciprocal restrictions on the size and scope of [military] exercises, including both strategic bombers close to each other’s territory, and ground-based exercises as well”, the official said, adding that “no firm commitments” would be made in Geneva.
> 
> Washington has firmly denied media reports that it could offer to pull back some troops stationed in eastern Europe in exchange for Russia scaling down its deployment on the Ukrainian border. Instead, officials said the US and other Nato allies were ready to increase that presence if Putin took any military action.
> 
> The US, EU and other western partners have warned that they will impose financial sanctions on Russia in the event of military escalation. Officials said yesterday that the US was ready to “immediately impose severe and overwhelming costs on Russia’s economy”.
> 
> The US is also preparing potential trade curbs on Russia, and has been discussing the possibility of a range of export controls with allies and partners in Europe and Asia, according to people familiar with White House thinking.
> 
> While the Kremlin has voiced hope for quick solutions from the talks, Stoltenberg said he expected it would take “a series of meetings” to find any mutually acceptable outcomes.
> 
> “We are ready to strive for a better relationship,” said the former Norwegian prime minister. “We have proven before that we are able to make compromises and find solutions with Russia.”


----------



## Czech_pivo

A case of good cop / bad cop?


----------



## Blackadder1916

Czech_pivo said:


> Paywall…



Radio Free Europe









						NATO Chief: No Compromise On Core Principles As Alliance Prepares For Talks With Russia
					

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has pledged to engage "in good faith and on substance" in talks with Russia next week, but he said the alliance will not compromise on core principles, including the right of nations to decide whether they want to join.




					www.rferl.org


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest on Canada's position via CTV News


> Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly hasn't ruled out the possibility of Canada sending weapons to Ukraine as Russia amasses troops along the Eastern border, noting that her cabinet colleagues are working closely on the issue.
> 
> In an interview on CTV’s Question Period with host Evan Solomon airing Sunday, Joly says she’s had many conversations with her Ukrainian counterpart and Canada’s calls for Russian de-escalation remain firm.
> 
> “We call on Russia, along with all NATO allies to stop their military buildup next to Ukraine… when it comes to dealing with the threat that Russia poses right now, that is exactly why I had on Friday, an important meeting with all the foreign ministers of NATO because it is important as an alliance that we show strength and unity and resolve,” she said.
> 
> Pressed repeatedly on whether Canada would send weaponry to help defend Ukrainian troops in the circumstance of a Russian invasion, Joly said only that her team is actively engaged in the issue.
> 
> “The most important thing right now is really to work with Ukrainians to deal with their security threats. That's what we'll be doing. My colleague Anita Anand, the defence minister, is actively on this file as well with allies…Ukraine's security is Europe's security and therefore it is the world and Canada's security,” she said ...


We'll see ...


----------



## suffolkowner

The Bread Guy said:


> Latest on Canada's position via CTV News
> 
> We'll see ...


What weapons of consequence do we have that they would need?


----------



## CBH99

suffolkowner said:


> What weapons of consequence do we have that they would need?


None.  The US is in a much better position to provide arms if that’s the road they go down… ATGM, precise bombs and missiles, vehicles, various kinds of drones for ISR as well as loitering munitions, etc.  

Or perhaps a European ally would be a good choice also.  


We don’t produce any weaponry of real consequence that they couldn’t get elsewhere.  

And we sure as hell don’t have spares of anything!


----------



## Good2Golf

Amateur Hour in Canada:



> “We call on Russia, along with all NATO allies to stop their military buildup *next* to Ukraine…



But doesn’t rule out sending armaments directly INTO the Ukraine.

🤦🏻


----------



## Czech_pivo

CBH99 said:


> None.  The US is in a much better position to provide arms if that’s the road they go down… ATGM, precise bombs and missiles, vehicles, various kinds of drones for ISR as well as loitering munitions, etc.
> 
> Or perhaps a European ally would be a good choice also.
> 
> 
> We don’t produce any weaponry of real consequence that they couldn’t get elsewhere.
> 
> And we sure as hell don’t have spares of anything!


I'm pretty sure we've got some surplus Canadian Rangers rifles that are becoming available.  Excellent all-weather rifles, able to stop a polar bear, why not send them?


----------



## Halifax Tar

suffolkowner said:


> What weapons of consequence do we have that they would need?



Or, what exactly do we have to spare ?


----------



## CBH99

Halifax Tar said:


> Or, what exactly do we have to spare ?


No weapons of any real consequence, and even if we did, none to spare.  

Although with a low cost UOR, we could buy new mortars and donate our C-16 AGL systems to Ukraine…  just sayin’… 🤷🏼‍♂️



The Timberwolf .50cal rifles are pretty lethal.  And I’m sure the company would appreciate some orders.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> Amateur Hour in Canada:
> 
> 
> 
> But doesn’t rule out sending armaments directly INTO the Ukraine.
> 
> 🤦🏻


Then based on this premise ...

... RT and Tass will shortly be coming out with a statement saying Canada endorses Russian intervention in Ukraine because hey, they didn't say we couldn't?   😉


----------



## Czech_pivo

A few weeks old but still an interesting read.









						Taxi Drivers, Schoolteachers, Bankers: Meet The Ukrainian Guerrilla Army Preparing To Fight Russia
					

“I know for sure that I will not leave Ukraine [if Russia invades]. I will not live under occupation,” said a 51-year-old doctor, wife, mother of three, and gardener. “I would kill.”




					www.buzzfeednews.com


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> A case of good cop / bad cop?


I think a case of Biden realizing he will be impeached in House and Senate if he doesn't do something.  He ran on his extensive Foreign Policy knowledge and experiences - and right now he's been failing miserably at those - so much that his approval is in the toilet - and with the Mid Term elections coming up - he will be a lame duck for his last two years if he doesn't do something.

He keeps giving mixed messages - but it appears that now it just won't be sanctions, and the US Army will defend Ukraine.

Tomorrow who knows...


----------



## Czech_pivo

From Time -









						A Former Supreme Commander of NATO on What Putin's Up to in the Ukraine
					

Former Admiral James Stavridis breaks down Putin's strategic gamble in the Ukraine and what could happen next




					time.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

Here is something that is getting zero attention/notice here in the West.  Lushashenko's tweets over Orthodox Christmas (7 Jan).  This could be big

"We should unite with our brothers: Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. We will do everything to take back Ukraine."


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1479423021639208963


----------



## Czech_pivo

Ukraine says arrests Russian agent planning attacks in Odessa
					

Ukraine's SBU security service said on Monday it had detained a Russian military intelligence agent who was planning attacks on the country's largest Black Sea port of Odessa.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## KevinB

Russia Positioning Helicopters, in Possible Sign of Ukraine Plans
					

The step, which could be an indication that planning for an attack continues, comes as the number of Russian troops at the border has remained steady in recent weeks, despite U.S. expectations of a surge.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Russia Positioning Helicopters, in Possible Sign of Ukraine Plans
> 
> 
> The step, which could be an indication that planning for an attack continues, comes as the number of Russian troops at the border has remained steady in recent weeks, despite U.S. expectations of a surge.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com


If the call goes out from the hospitals for blood donors in Russia, then they are going in.


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> If the call goes out from the hospitals for blood donors in Russia, then they are going in.


Assuming they haven't been stock piling already, or been having troops from other regions donate to keep it quiet


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> Assuming they haven't been stock piling already, or been having troops from other regions donate to keep it quiet


yes, very true.


----------



## Lancaster

See below interesting article.

Ukraine's alliances are not a 'bargaining chip' in
talks with Russia, country's deputy PM says.



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-russia-nato-putin-stefanishyna-zelensky-1.6310279


----------



## Czech_pivo

Ukraine’s home-made anti-tank missiles.









						Ukraine’s Homemade Anti-Tank Missiles Have Been Blasting More And More Rebel Vehicles
					

A Stugna-P team. Ukrainian defense ministry photo The powerful Javelin anti-tank missiles that Ukraine has been getting from the United States tend to dominate the headlines. That makes sense. The Javelins aren’t just highly-effective weapons—they’re also symbols of U.S. support for Ukraine as a...




					news.google.com


----------



## KevinB

As the U.S. and Russia talk, Ukrainian troops brace for war, and they're "ready for battle"
					

A Ukrainian commander battling Russian-backed rebels tells CBS News they're "ready for battle," as Putin's posturing brings echoes of the Cold War.




					www.cbsnews.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

Once more into the breech...

'There is a real risk for new armed conflict in Europe' Stoltenberg says​
The threat of a new war in Europe is very real, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said today following talks with Russia at the military alliance's headquarters in Brussels.

Stoltenberg's warning was delivered as the Trudeau government faces rising political pressure from the vocal Ukrainian diaspora community in Canada to do more to help deter an invasion by Russia troops.

The meeting of the NATO-Russia Council ended without a firm commitment to more dialogue over Moscow's demands. Russia is insisting that Ukraine be denied NATO membership and that the deployment of alliance troops and equipment in eastern Europe be rolled back to 1997 levels.

Those demands have been rejected entirely by the alliance. Wednesday's four hour meeting between NATO ambassadors and a Russian delegation was a "defining moment for European security," Stoltenberg said.



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/nato-ukraine-putin-russia-stoltenberg-1.6312533


----------



## Czech_pivo

Things heating up a it.









						Poland warns Europe at risk of war as Russia says Ukraine talks hit dead end - National | Globalnews.ca
					

Russia said it was hitting a dead end as it tried to persuade the West to bar Ukraine from joining NATO and roll back decades of alliance expansion in Europe.




					globalnews.ca


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> Things heating up a it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Poland warns Europe at risk of war as Russia says Ukraine talks hit dead end - National | Globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> Russia said it was hitting a dead end as it tried to persuade the West to bar Ukraine from joining NATO and roll back decades of alliance expansion in Europe.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> globalnews.ca


This is Russian traditional playbook, make ot seem like it's the other sides fault. It seems like a major initiative to distract from domestic issues that have been dragging putins popularity


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> This is Russian traditional playbook, make ot seem like it's the other sides fault. It seems like a major initiative to distract from domestic issues that have been dragging putins popularity


Agree, but there has to be an ‘out’ for them, something that shows that they’ve came away with a win. Not sure what that will be at the moment.


----------



## Lancaster

Czech_pivo said:


> Agree, but there has to be an ‘out’ for them, something that shows that they’ve came away with a win. Not sure what that will be at the moment.


 Putin's big miscalculation.

 Is Russian President Vladimir Putin planning to 
invade Ukraine, potentially launching a new war in
 Europe? The answer remains elusive after a week 
of intensive diplomacy, with consecutive meetings 
between Russian officials and US, NATO and the 
Organization for Security and Cooperation in 
Europe envoys...








						Opinion: Putin's big miscalculation
					

Frida Ghitis writes that the more Russian President Vladimir Putin threatens Ukraine -- solidifying the Kremlin's image as a bully endangering its neighbor -- the more he strengthens both NATO and the desire of Russia's neighbors to join the military alliance.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## KevinB

Amid Russia crisis, Pentagon nominee criticizes Obama response to Crimea
					

A top Pentagon pick for President Biden has criticized the Obama administration’s response to Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea as “too slow and too incremental.”




					www.defensenews.com


----------



## Halifax Tar

Seems accurate


----------



## KevinB

US warns 'drumbeats of war' are sounding as Ukraine crisis talks with Russia end with no breakthrough
					

A senior US official warned Thursday that the "drumbeat of war is sounding loud" following a week's worth of diplomacy between the West and Russia that wrapped up Thursday.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Amid Russia crisis, Pentagon nominee criticizes Obama response to Crimea
> 
> 
> A top Pentagon pick for President Biden has criticized the Obama administration’s response to Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea as “too slow and too incremental.”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.defensenews.com


To be fair, though ....


> The CIA is overseeing a secret intensive training program in the U.S. for elite Ukrainian special operations forces and other intelligence personnel, according to five former intelligence and national security officials familiar with the initiative. The program, which started in 2015, is based at an undisclosed facility in the Southern U.S., according to some of those officials.
> 
> (...)
> 
> While the covert program, run by paramilitaries working for the CIA’s Ground Branch — now officially known as Ground Department — was *established by the Obama administration after Russia’s invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014*, and expanded under the Trump administration, the Biden administration has further augmented it, said a former senior intelligence official in touch with colleagues in government ...


Meanwhile, here at home ...


> Russia may face further Western sanctions as a consequence of its military buildup on the Ukrainian border, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Wednesday.
> 
> And Trudeau* appeared to confirm* that Canada will renew its modest commitment of 200 Canadian Forces personnel to a military training mission in Ukraine, amid rising tensions between the West and Russia.
> 
> The Ukrainian government has been waiting on Canada to publicly renew the commitment, set to expire at the end of March, as part of a show of NATO solidarity toward Russia at a time of rising tensions ...


We'll see ...


----------



## Czech_pivo

Here's a bit of interesting news. I've not read anything previously saying that any of our 200+/- troops were 'outside the wire' from their main base outside of Lvov.  That turns out to not be the case.

"_The Canadian troops under Gilbert's command are currently spread across 13 different locations in Ukraine. However, the mission commander said all of them are on the western side of the Dnieper River, which cuts the country almost in half.

"We are operating on military bases, mostly in the centre and west of the country," Gilbert said. "We have nothing east of the Dnieper River."

"While that means Canadian soldiers won't be on the front lines if Russian forces do start to pour across the border into Ukraine, it probably wouldn't take long for them to find themselves face to face with invading Russian troops and tanks."_

Does anyone know if we have any of our transport vehicles assigned to this mission?  If we've got 13 different locations spread across the country where we've go troops I can only imagine the logistics of getting these locations during a shooting war when everything is fluid. 
Also interesting to read that, at least accordingly to what's being said in the article, none of these troops have been recalled from said 13 locations.









						Canadian troops in Ukraine pressing ahead with training mission amid Russia tensions
					

The commander of Canadian troops in Ukraine says his soldiers are pressing ahead with their mission -- preparing the eastern European country's military for war -- amid the looming threat of a Russian invasion.




					www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## medic5

Cyberattack in Ukraine targets government websites
					

A cyberattack left a number of Ukrainian government websites temporarily unavailable Friday, officials said.




					www.ctvnews.ca
				




"Moscow had previously denied involvement in cyberattacks against Ukraine.

The websites of the country's cabinet, seven ministries, the Treasury, the National Emergency Service and the state services website, where Ukrainians' electronic passports and vaccination certificates are stored, were temporarily unavailable Friday as a result of the hack.

The websites contained a message in Ukrainian, Russian and Polish, saying that Ukrainians' personal data has been leaked into the public domain. "Be afraid and expect the worst. This is for your past, present and future," the message read, in part."


----------



## Czech_pivo

medic5 said:


> Cyberattack in Ukraine targets government websites
> 
> 
> A cyberattack left a number of Ukrainian government websites temporarily unavailable Friday, officials said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> "Moscow had previously denied involvement in cyberattacks against Ukraine.
> 
> The websites of the country's cabinet, seven ministries, the Treasury, the National Emergency Service and the state services website, where Ukrainians' electronic passports and vaccination certificates are stored, were temporarily unavailable Friday as a result of the hack.
> 
> The websites contained a message in Ukrainian, Russian and Polish, saying that Ukrainians' personal data has been leaked into the public domain. "Be afraid and expect the worst. This is for your past, present and future," the message read, in part."


A subtle reminder to the Polish, know which side to butter your bread.

Today is also 'Novy God' in Russia (and the Ukraine?), its Orthodox New Year's Day, so there is some symbolism in doing this.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Its a paywall which I don't have access to but the headline is interesting.

Russia Moves More Weaponry Toward Ukraine, Keeps the West Guessing​Tanks, missile launchers and other materiel are seen being shifted westward _from bases in the Russian Far East_​








						Russia Moves More Weaponry Toward Ukraine, Keeps the West Guessing
					

As diplomats held talks over the Ukraine crisis this week, the Kremlin began shifting tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, rocket launchers and other military equipment westward from bases in the Russian Far East.




					www.wsj.com


----------



## tomydoom

Czech_pivo said:


> Its a paywall which I don't have access to but the headline is interesting.
> 
> Russia Moves More Weaponry Toward Ukraine, Keeps the West Guessing​Tanks, missile launchers and other materiel are seen being shifted westward _from bases in the Russian Far East_​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia Moves More Weaponry Toward Ukraine, Keeps the West Guessing
> 
> 
> As diplomats held talks over the Ukraine crisis this week, the Kremlin began shifting tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, rocket launchers and other military equipment westward from bases in the Russian Far East.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.wsj.com


It has occurred to me and likely others on this forum, that Russia moving military resources out of the far east, plays into the medium term strategic goals of China.  I fully expect that one day, while he is busy playing silly bugger with the west,  Vlad will wake up to find his eastern frontier is the Urals and the Peoples Republic extends from there to the Pacific. It mystifies me, that Putin does not see China as the true threat.


----------



## daftandbarmy

tomydoom said:


> It has occurred to me and likely others on this forum, that Russia moving military resources out of the far east, plays into the medium term strategic goals of China.  I fully expect that one day, while he is busy playing silly bugger with the west,  Vlad will wake up to find his eastern frontier is the Urals and the Peoples Republic extends from there to the Pacific. It mystifies me, that Putin does not see China as the true threat.



Who says they've haven't made some kind of deal with each other to divide the spoils?

China Deepens Informal Alliance With Russia​China and Russia have strengthened their political, economic and military relations this year, despite their uneasy history in the past, as both countries say they resent what they call growing pressure from the West.

So far this year, the two have held a series of military exercises and issued joint diplomatic statements aimed at Western countries. On November 27, for example, an essay by both countries’ ambassadors to Washington protested the upcoming U.S.-led Summit for Democracy for creating divisions in the world. Neither Russia nor China appeared on the list of 110 invitees.

Russia depends on China’s massive industrial economy for oil and gas exports as environmental rules in the European Union complicate energy imports there, said Vassily Kashin, senior fellow at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

He said two-way relations were at their strongest since the 1950s.

“Most importantly, we have a common position concerning the global order, which is that we don’t like the U.S. global order, so this close partnership is based on common opposition to the U.S.-led global order,” Kashin said.

Western democracies from the United States to Australia and throughout Europe have strengthened their own ties this year at a time of concern about China’s policies. Western governments have signaled opposition to Beijing’s aggressive language on Taiwan, its crackdown on dissenters in Hong Kong and its policies targeting a Muslim minority in China's Xinjiang region.










						China Deepens Informal Alliance With Russia
					

Russia, for its part, wants a stronger role in Asian affairs




					www.voanews.com


----------



## tomydoom

daftandbarmy said:


> Who says they've haven't made some kind of deal with each other to divide the spoils?
> 
> China Deepens Informal Alliance With Russia​China and Russia have strengthened their political, economic and military relations this year, despite their uneasy history in the past, as both countries say they resent what they call growing pressure from the West.
> 
> So far this year, the two have held a series of military exercises and issued joint diplomatic statements aimed at Western countries. On November 27, for example, an essay by both countries’ ambassadors to Washington protested the upcoming U.S.-led Summit for Democracy for creating divisions in the world. Neither Russia nor China appeared on the list of 110 invitees.
> 
> Russia depends on China’s massive industrial economy for oil and gas exports as environmental rules in the European Union complicate energy imports there, said Vassily Kashin, senior fellow at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
> 
> He said two-way relations were at their strongest since the 1950s.
> 
> “Most importantly, we have a common position concerning the global order, which is that we don’t like the U.S. global order, so this close partnership is based on common opposition to the U.S.-led global order,” Kashin said.
> 
> Western democracies from the United States to Australia and throughout Europe have strengthened their own ties this year at a time of concern about China’s policies. Western governments have signaled opposition to Beijing’s aggressive language on Taiwan, its crackdown on dissenters in Hong Kong and its policies targeting a Muslim minority in China's Xinjiang region.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> China Deepens Informal Alliance With Russia
> 
> 
> Russia, for its part, wants a stronger role in Asian affairs
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.voanews.com


I am aware of the "deepening friendship and amity" between China and Russia; however it always looks to me like China is playing games with Russia and one day will swallow the parts they're interested in.  Putin just appears to be China's "useful fool".


----------



## Czech_pivo

tomydoom said:


> I am aware of the "deepening friendship and amity" between China and Russia; however it always looks to me like China is playing games with Russia and one day will swallow the parts they're interested in.  Putin just appears to be China's "useful fool".


I think that Putin wouldn't lose much sleep if China 'lost' 6-800 million people 'somehow'.


----------



## McG

Czech_pivo said:


> Here's a bit of interesting news. I've not read anything previously saying that any of our 200+/- troops were 'outside the wire' from their main base outside of Lvov. That turns out to not be the case.


Op UNIFIER has been spread across multiple locations from its inception.  The number of locations has also grown over the life of the mission.



tomydoom said:


> I am aware of the "deepening friendship and amity" between China and Russia; however it always looks to me like China is playing games with Russia and one day will swallow the parts they're interested in.  Putin just appears to be China's "useful fool".


It's not like this would be Russia's first Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact with a likely threat nation.


----------



## Czech_pivo

US claims Russia planning ‘false-flag’ operation to justify Ukraine invasion​








						US claims Russia planning ‘false-flag’ operation to justify Ukraine invasion
					

Officials say Moscow has already positioned saboteurs in Ukraine, on day Ukraine hit by ‘massive’ cyber-attack




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

McG said:


> Op UNIFIER has been spread across multiple locations from its inception.  The number of locations has also grown over the life of the mission.
> 
> 
> It's not like this would be Russia's first Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact with a likely threat nation.


I've not read previously any articles saying that our troops were located anywhere but at the main base outside of Lvov.  I have no issues with it.


----------



## CBH99

tomydoom said:


> I am aware of the "deepening friendship and amity" between China and Russia; however it always looks to me like China is playing games with Russia and one day will swallow the parts they're interested in.  Putin just appears to be China's "useful fool".


That is the rub though.  Putin isn’t a fool, he’s the furthest thing from.  However, neither is Xi.  

Could China use some more territory, given its population?  Ofcourse.  But there are a few places already well within China’s geographical sphere of influence that would be far less contested if suddenly annexed.  


Russia is a useful ally in that they have legitimate concerns about their western borders, and posture accordingly.  This causes western nations to take notice, and reinforce their posturing even further, etc etc

China is in turn a useful ally in that they have the ability to easily distract those same western nations by causing problems in the SCS, and beyond.  And when western nations respond to those concerns, they tend to be asset and manpower intensive just due to the nature of the deployment.  


Are China and Russia lovers, destined to be rock solid allies for the rest of time?  No.  

Are they embracing each other’s geographic & military usefulness to each other, due to a perceived common enemy? Absolutely.   


It’s like dangling a toy or string for your cat. You bounce it in the air, making all kinds of absurd noises to get it’s attention.  And then just as he’s about to smack it with his paw or pounce on it - wait, what’s this!?  The other hand starts up, and distracts him completely.  

The west is very much the cat.


----------



## JLB50

If the Russians decide to conduct a “false flag” operation, they will have taken a page from the Nazis in 1939 (the Gleiwitz Incident).  The Germans staged an attack on one of their own radio stations on the German/Polish border and made it seem like it was the Poles who had done so. The attac was then used as a pretext to justify an invasion of Poland.


----------



## Czech_pivo

McG said:


> Op UNIFIER has been spread across multiple locations from its inception.  The number of locations has also grown over the life of the mission.
> 
> 
> It's not like this would be Russia's first Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact with a likely threat nation.


what's interesting is in this set of pics on the Ukrainian site - Ukrinform.net - which shows the change of leadership pics to the current Canadian operation leader, LCol Sarah Heer, is all of the pics showing the awarding of plaques/books and such are in front of the Ukrainian flag and the NATO flag......
Is Op UNIFIER sanctioned/supported/approved by NATO?  If Swedish troops are under Canadian supervision for Op UNIFIER, why does their Ambassador agree to have their picture taken under the Ukrainian and NATO flags, does that make sense?









						Lieutenant-Colonel Sarah Heer takes command of Operation UNIFIER in Ukraine
					

Lieutenant-Colonel Ryan Stimpson transferred command of Operation UNIFIER to Lieutenant-Colonel Sarah Heer. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				





-  Swedish Ambassador to Ukraine, right in front of a NATO flag.

\

From an optics point of view, its no wonder that pics like this totally set the Russians off.  All Russians drink 'paranoia' straight from their mother's breast when they are born and this continues until the day they die.


----------



## Altair

tomydoom said:


> I am aware of the "deepening friendship and amity" between China and Russia; however it always looks to me like China is playing games with Russia and one day will swallow the parts they're interested in.  Putin just appears to be China's "useful fool".


Same reason why the USA hasn't invaded Alberta yet.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

daftandbarmy said:


> Who says they've haven't made some kind of deal with each other to divide the spoils?
> 
> China Deepens Informal Alliance With Russia​China and Russia have strengthened their political, economic and military relations this year, despite their uneasy history in the past, as both countries say they resent what they call growing pressure from the West.
> 
> So far this year, the two have held a series of military exercises and issued joint diplomatic statements aimed at Western countries. On November 27, for example, an essay by both countries’ ambassadors to Washington protested the upcoming U.S.-led Summit for Democracy for creating divisions in the world. Neither Russia nor China appeared on the list of 110 invitees.
> 
> Russia depends on China’s massive industrial economy for oil and gas exports as environmental rules in the European Union complicate energy imports there, said Vassily Kashin, senior fellow at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
> 
> He said two-way relations were at their strongest since the 1950s.
> 
> “Most importantly, we have a common position concerning the global order, which is that we don’t like the U.S. global order, so this close partnership is based on common opposition to the U.S.-led global order,” Kashin said.
> 
> Western democracies from the United States to Australia and throughout Europe have strengthened their own ties this year at a time of concern about China’s policies. Western governments have signaled opposition to Beijing’s aggressive language on Taiwan, its crackdown on dissenters in Hong Kong and its policies targeting a Muslim minority in China's Xinjiang region.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> China Deepens Informal Alliance With Russia
> 
> 
> Russia, for its part, wants a stronger role in Asian affairs
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.voanews.com


If the United States and the United Kingdom can form an Alliance with the Soviet Union to defeat Nazi Germany, after the Soviet Union made a deal with Nazi Germany to divide Poland, why is a Chinese-Russian Alliance so hard to imagine?

Countries don't have permanent friends, they have permanent interests.


----------



## armrdsoul77

Altair said:


> Same reason why the USA hasn't invaded Alberta yet.


----------



## KevinB

daftandbarmy said:


> Who says they've haven't made some kind of deal with each other to divide the spoils?
> 
> China Deepens Informal Alliance With Russia​China and Russia have strengthened their political, economic and military relations this year, despite their uneasy history in the past, as both countries say they resent what they call growing pressure from the West.
> 
> So far this year, the two have held a series of military exercises and issued joint diplomatic statements aimed at Western countries. On November 27, for example, an essay by both countries’ ambassadors to Washington protested the upcoming U.S.-led Summit for Democracy for creating divisions in the world. Neither Russia nor China appeared on the list of 110 invitees.
> 
> Russia depends on China’s massive industrial economy for oil and gas exports as environmental rules in the European Union complicate energy imports there, said Vassily Kashin, senior fellow at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
> 
> He said two-way relations were at their strongest since the 1950s.
> 
> “Most importantly, we have a common position concerning the global order, which is that we don’t like the U.S. global order, so this close partnership is based on common opposition to the U.S.-led global order,” Kashin said.
> 
> Western democracies from the United States to Australia and throughout Europe have strengthened their own ties this year at a time of concern about China’s policies. Western governments have signaled opposition to Beijing’s aggressive language on Taiwan, its crackdown on dissenters in Hong Kong and its policies targeting a Muslim minority in China's Xinjiang region.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> China Deepens Informal Alliance With Russia
> 
> 
> Russia, for its part, wants a stronger role in Asian affairs
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.voanews.com


Which is easier for China? Cross into Taiwan - against the USN and USAF, Australians as well as Japanese, and SK and of course Taiwanese forces - or make an overland venture against an occupied Russia?
   Keep in mind Russia and China have had sparring Div Arty matches across their border for years.


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> Which is easier for China? Cross into Taiwan - against the USN and USAF, Australians as well as Japanese, and SK and of course Taiwanese forces - or make an overland venture against an occupied Russia?
> Keep in mind Russia and China have had sparring Div Arty matches across their border for years.



And then there's India and Pakistan, of course


----------



## GR66

KevinB said:


> Which is easier for China? Cross into Taiwan - against the USN and USAF, Australians as well as Japanese, and SK and of course Taiwanese forces - or make an overland venture against an occupied Russia?
> Keep in mind Russia and China have had sparring Div Arty matches across their border for years.


How many nuclear weapons does Taiwan have?


----------



## KevinB

GR66 said:


> How many nuclear weapons does Taiwan have?


You should ask them?

But lets think about one aspect -- Israel and Pakistan had nukes long before they went public with them, and Taiwan isn't exactly technologically challenged.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> You should ask them?
> 
> But lets think about one aspect -- Israel and Pakistan had nukes long before they went public with them, and Taiwan isn't exactly technologically challenged.


and in SA.


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> You should ask them?
> 
> But lets think about one aspect -- Israel and Pakistan had nukes long before they went public with them, and Taiwan isn't exactly technologically challenged.


Sure, Taiwan may supply 63% of the Earth’s entire production of semiconductors….

😉


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Which is easier for China? Cross into Taiwan - against the USN and USAF, Australians as well as Japanese, and SK and of course Taiwanese forces - or make an overland venture against an occupied Russia?
> Keep in mind Russia and China have had sparring Div Arty matches across their border for years.


You know who wins in a China Russia nuke fest?

USA.

China and Russia are not stupid.


----------



## McG

Czech_pivo said:


> what's interesting is in this set of pics on the Ukrainian site - Ukrinform.net - which shows the change of leadership pics to the current Canadian operation leader, LCol Sarah Heer, is all of the pics showing the awarding of plaques/books and such are in front of the Ukrainian flag and the NATO flag......
> Is Op UNIFIER sanctioned/supported/approved by NATO? If Swedish troops are under Canadian supervision for Op UNIFIER, why does their Ambassador agree to have their picture taken under the Ukrainian and NATO flags, does that make sense?


Op UNIFIER is not NATO or under any NATO umbrella.

The likely reason that you see the NATO flags is because the location of the larges Canadian contingent is at a facility that that was built as a NATO PfP training facility many years before Russia invaded Ukrainian. A lot of the décor reflects that largely dormant function.


----------



## Lancaster

U.S. says Russia is creating possible 
"pretext for invasion" of Ukraine. see 
video 

...The official told CBS News on Friday the
 Russian operatives were "trained in urban 
warfare and in using explosives to carry 
out acts of sabotage against Russia's own 
proxy-forces," and could take action "several 
weeks before a military invasion, which could 
 begin between mid-January and mid-February."
U.S. says Russia is creating possible "pretext for invasion" of Ukraine


----------



## Altair

Lancaster said:


> U.S. says Russia is creating possible
> "pretext for invasion" of Ukraine. see
> video
> 
> ...The official told CBS News on Friday the
> Russian operatives were "trained in urban
> warfare and in using explosives to carry
> out acts of sabotage against Russia's own
> proxy-forces," and could take action "several
> weeks before a military invasion, which could
> begin between mid-January and mid-February."
> U.S. says Russia is creating possible "pretext for invasion" of Ukraine


If the invasion doesn't begin during or shortly after the Olympics I would be shocked.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> You know who wins in a China Russia nuke fest?
> 
> USA.
> 
> China and Russia are not stupid.





Altair said:


> If the invasion doesn't begin during or shortly after the Olympics I would be shocked.



People miscalculate all the time - NATO has already announced it's intent with the Ukraine.


  Frankly if I was NATO I would simply build up on the Belarus border - maybe invade that tin pot dictator for kicks to annoy Putin, that's a lot closer than the Ukraine to Moscow.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> People miscalculate all the time - NATO has already announced it's intent with the Ukraine.
> 
> 
> Frankly if I was NATO I would simply build up on the Belarus border - maybe invade that tin pot dictator for kicks to annoy Putin, that's a lot closer than the Ukraine to Moscow.


If you were NATO this wouldn't be happening.

We are in this situation because NATO isn't willing to risk military conflict with Russia.

As a further indication of how serious Russia is, I'm hearing talk of Russian forces being deployed to Cuba and Venezuela, which will no doubt make America very uneasy indeed.


----------



## MilEME09

Altair said:


> If you were NATO this wouldn't be happening.
> 
> We are in this situation because NATO isn't willing to risk military conflict with Russia.
> 
> As a further indication of how serious Russia is, I'm hearing talk of Russian forces being deployed to Cuba and Venezuela, which will no doubt make America very uneasy indeed.


The question is are we talking just Russian infantry, or S-400 batteries, or heaven forbid hypersonic missiles which would trigger Cuba missile crisis 2.0


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> The question is are we talking just Russian infantry, or S-400 batteries, or heaven forbid hypersonic missiles which would trigger Cuba missile crisis 2.0


Depends how mad Putin is about what NATO is doing. If we build up in the balkans or make things hard for them by supplying Ukraine I can see Hypersonic missiles in Cuba or Venezuela


----------



## blacktriangle

MilEME09 said:


> The question is are we talking just Russian infantry, or S-400 batteries, or heaven forbid hypersonic missiles which would trigger Cuba missile crisis 2.0


Perhaps some Blackjacks to Venezuela, they've done it before.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> If you were NATO this wouldn't be happening.
> 
> We are in this situation because NATO isn't willing to risk military conflict with Russia.
> 
> As a further indication of how serious Russia is, I'm hearing talk of Russian forces being deployed to Cuba and Venezuela, which will no doubt make America very uneasy indeed.


Russians again in Cuba or Venezuela would mean US troops - at the Corps level in Ukraine and a new flag in Belarus.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Russians again in Cuba or Venezuela would mean US troops - at the Corps level in Ukraine and a new flag in Belarus.


Yeah, well, that's the level of geopolitical chess we seem to be playing now.


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> Russians again in Cuba or Venezuela would mean US troops - at the Corps level in Ukraine and a new flag in Belarus.


Problem there is the Belarus has its own collective security alliance with Russia. If Russia let us take Belarus out, I'd be wonder what's going on in the Kremlin


----------



## MilEME09

Russia is preparing a ‘false flag’ event to invade Ukraine: US
					

The Kremlin says reports that Russia is preparing a provocation are ‘unfounded’, as tensions reach new heights.




					www.aljazeera.com
				



Good article breaking down everything we now know


----------



## Czech_pivo

McG said:


> Op UNIFIER is not NATO or under any NATO umbrella.
> 
> The likely reason that you see the NATO flags is because the location of the larges Canadian contingent is at a facility that that was built as a NATO PfP training facility many years before Russia invaded Ukrainian. A lot of the décor reflects that largely dormant function.


It’s not the issue of seeing NATO flags, it’s the fact that pics showing the CDN Ambassador and the former operations leader both accepting awards flanked by Ukrainian and NATO flags, not Ukkie and CDN flags. It’s gives the false sense that they are there under NATO and it’s things like this that further set the Russians off.


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> The question is are we talking just Russian infantry, or S-400 batteries, or heaven forbid hypersonic missiles which would trigger Cuba missile crisis 2.0


Why the assumption that Cuba would allow Russian troops or armaments now?


----------



## Quirky

If Varadero is any indication, the Russians have been in Cuba a long time.


----------



## MilEME09

Meanwhile in case of itchy trigger fingers, FEDEX is upping its game









						FedEx is trying to add anti-missile lasers to its cargo planes
					

The U.S. package delivery company FedEx recently applied for permission from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to modify some of its cargo planes




					americanmilitarynews.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson

I suspect it would be better to do it away from Ukraine, but that will cost real dollars.

_The flagship of the Ukrainian fleet, the Hetman Sahaidachnyi frigate, will be repaired and will undergo a large-scale modernization, reports Militarnyi with reference to the State Concern “Ukroboronprom”.









						The Ministry of Defense has signed a contract for the repair and modernization of Hetman Sahaidachnyi
					

The flagship of the Ukrainian fleet, the Hetman Sahaidachnyi frigate, will be repaired and will undergo a large-scale modernization




					mil.in.ua
				



_


----------



## MilEME09

Colin Parkinson said:


> I suspect it would be better to do it away from Ukraine, but that will cost real dollars.
> 
> _The flagship of the Ukrainian fleet, the Hetman Sahaidachnyi frigate, will be repaired and will undergo a large-scale modernization, reports Militarnyi with reference to the State Concern “Ukroboronprom”.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Ministry of Defense has signed a contract for the repair and modernization of Hetman Sahaidachnyi
> 
> 
> The flagship of the Ukrainian fleet, the Hetman Sahaidachnyi frigate, will be repaired and will undergo a large-scale modernization
> 
> 
> 
> 
> mil.in.ua
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _


given the situation? having the french or italians do it in a safe port would do well to prevent the russians from getting their hands or eyes on it


----------



## The Bread Guy

Let's see how much THIS'll do ....


> Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly will visit Kyiv next week to reaffirm support for Ukrainian sovereignty and reinforce efforts to deter "aggressive actions" by Russia, Ottawa said on Saturday.
> 
> ( ... )
> 
> Canada, with a sizeable and politically influential population of Ukrainian ethnic descent, has taken a hard line with Moscow since the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
> 
> "The amassing of Russian troops and equipment in and around Ukraine jeopardizes security in the entire region. These aggressive actions must be deterred," Joly said in a statement.
> 
> "Canada will work with its international partners to uphold the rules-based international order."
> 
> Joly will meet Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmygal and travel to the west of the country to speak to a 200-strong Canadian training mission that has been there since 2015 ...


----------



## Lancaster

U.S. says more evidence points to Russia 
preparing to invade Ukraine. See video.








						U.S. says more evidence points to Russia preparing to invade Ukraine
					

U.S. officials believe Russia is laying the groundwork to invade Ukraine. The National Security Council says Russia has positioned a group of operatives to conduct a so-called "false-flag operation" in eastern Ukraine. Meanwhile, a cyberattack knocked out several government websites in Ukraine...



					www.cbsnews.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

A good video on the breakdown of what Russia might face if they move on the Ukraine:


----------



## MilEME09

daftandbarmy said:


> A good video on the breakdown of what Russia might face if they move on the Ukraine:


I'd be interested to see what elements of OC west have been moved to any of the other regions. The Ukrainian airforce is basically out of the picture as without modern SEAD assets I doubt they can punch any holes in Russian/Separatist AD bubbles.









						War With No Air Power? Eastern Ukraine Could Be Too Dangerous For Russian And Ukrainian Planes
					

Two air-defense campaigns—in Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine’s Donbas region in 2014 and 2015—surely loom large in the minds of air-defense officers on both sides as Russia masses forces for a possible overt attack on Ukraine.




					www.google.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

daftandbarmy said:


> A good video on the breakdown of what Russia might face if they move on the Ukraine:


Thanks for posting this.


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> 2 armour brigades and another armour battalion in T-64b’s, that seems a bit thin….


Well their T-84s are with the Air Assault and naval infantry, though I do find it odd that the T72 is considered a second line tank, they must be lacking a lot of modernization, wonder if Poland would be willing to upgrade them to PT-91 standards


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Well their T-84s are with the Air Assault and naval infantry, though I do find it odd that the T72 is considered a second line tank, they must be lacking a lot of modernization, wonder if Poland would be willing to upgrade them to PT-91 standards


The T-72 was the cheap tank - the 64 was always the cream tank for Guards units in Russia - for years the 64 was a non export tank - because it was a better with more modern features than the 72 or even most 80's.
  Crawling in a 64B is very illuminating when you compare it to more modern 72's and 80's - and you can see why it was kept for certain units.

I suspect that the Ukrainians will be getting Leo2 and M1A2 tanks in short order, that they won't need to upgrade any 72's


----------



## The Bread Guy

Hmmm, reports of chemical leaks in occupied Ukraine, rash of bomb threats about, some kinda special reserve force being created - interesting rumbles.


KevinB said:


> I suspect that the Ukrainians will be getting Leo2 and M1A2 tanks in short order, that they won't need to upgrade any 72's


Fingers crossed, but I don't see the across-the-board will yet.


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Hmmm, reports of chemical leaks in occupied Ukraine, rash of bomb threats about, some kinda special reserve force being created - interesting rumbles.
> 
> Fingers crossed, but I don't see the across-the-board will yet.


Will to send equipment absolutely.
  Will to send Troops in the Equipment - questionable.   President Biden seems to waffle daily on what he is willing to do.
NATO effectively drew a line in the sand -- the question is are the member countries going to watch the line?

I do think that the USG in news releases here is setting to tone to deploy Troops - everything coming out of Washington is anti-Russian.


----------



## OceanBonfire

> ... a group known as UNC1151 and that it was cover for more destructive actions behind the scenes.











						EXCLUSIVE Ukraine suspects group linked to Belarus intelligence over cyberattack
					

Kyiv believes a hacker group linked to Belarusian intelligence carried out a cyberattack that hit Ukrainian government websites this week and used malware similar to that used by a group tied to Russian intelligence, a senior Ukrainian security official said.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## MilEME09

OceanBonfire said:


> EXCLUSIVE Ukraine suspects group linked to Belarus intelligence over cyberattack
> 
> 
> Kyiv believes a hacker group linked to Belarusian intelligence carried out a cyberattack that hit Ukrainian government websites this week and used malware similar to that used by a group tied to Russian intelligence, a senior Ukrainian security official said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


Belarus trying to stir the pot? If not sanctioned by Moscow that could leave them in a bad spot


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> Belarus trying to stir the pot? If not sanctioned by Moscow that could leave them in a bad spot


You’re kidding, right?  The White Russians are without a doubt ‘on orders’ from the Great Russians.  

The title of the article could also have been:  “US elements at Fort Meade identify Russian hackers operating through proxy hubs in Belarus attacking Ukraine government websites.”


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> ... The title of the article could also have been:  “US elements at Fort Meade identify Russian hackers operating through proxy hubs in Belarus attacking Ukraine government websites.”


Only if the reporter was quoting U.S. sources, not Ukrainian ones 😉


----------



## Good2Golf

The Bread Guy said:


> Only if the reporter was quoting U.S. sources, not Ukrainian ones 😉


Well, what’s good for the goose (calling out Russians proxying through Belarus) should be good for the gander (US support proxying through UKR ‘sources’). 😉


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Only if the reporter was quoting U.S. sources, not Ukrainian ones 😉


Europeans tend to distrust US Sources - so better leaked by the Ukrainians for this.


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> Europeans tend to distrust US Sources - so better leaked by the Ukrainians for this.


…but they don’t mind having US forces in and around them to put teeth into Europe’s ‘bite’…

Where’s the previously much-touted EUROCORPS to assure stability in on the continent? 🤔


----------



## MilEME09

Good2Golf said:


> …but they don’t mind having US forces in and around them to put teeth into Europe’s ‘bite’…
> 
> Where’s the previously much-touted EUROCORPS to assure stability in on the continent? 🤔


Probably still sitting in garrison in Strasburg, because even though deploying them would send a signal, NATO does not want to be the one to escalate first.


----------



## OceanBonfire

Follow up:









						Microsoft discloses malware attack on Ukraine govt networks
					

BOSTON (AP) — Microsoft said late Saturday that dozens of computer systems at an unspecified number of Ukrainian government agencies have been infected with destructive malware disguised as ransomware, a disclosure suggesting an attention-grabbing defacement attack on official websites was a...




					apnews.com
				












						Malware attacks targeting Ukraine government - Microsoft On the Issues
					

Today, Microsoft is sharing that we’ve observed destructive malware in systems belonging to several Ukrainian government agencies and organizations that work closely with the Ukrainian government. This information could help others in the cybersecurity community look out for and defend against...




					blogs.microsoft.com
				












						Destructive malware targeting Ukrainian organizations - Microsoft Security Blog
					

Microsoft Threat Intelligence Center (MSTIC) has identified evidence of a destructive malware operation targeting multiple organizations in Ukraine.



					www.microsoft.com


----------



## MilEME09

> The organizations affected by this malware include government agencies that provide critical executive branch or emergency response functions and an IT firm that manages websites for public and private sector clients, including government agencies whose websites were recently defaced.



Emergency response is a key right there, if they can't neutralize this before a Russian attack, this may cripple a Ukrainian response to invasion.


----------



## The Bread Guy

We'll see ...


> ... senior Biden administration officials are warning that the United States could throw its weight behind a Ukrainian insurgency should President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia invade Ukraine ... Administration officials interviewed this week said that plans to help Ukrainian insurgents could include providing training in nearby countries that are part of NATO’s eastern flank: Poland, Romania and Slovakia, which could enable insurgents to slip in and out of Ukraine. Beyond logistical support and weapons, the United States and NATO allies could also provide medical equipment, services and even sanctuary during Russian offensives. The United States would almost certainly supply weapons, the officials said ...


Archive link here if previous one doesn't work


----------



## YZT580

The Bread Guy said:


> We'll see ...
> 
> Archive link here if previous one doesn't work


Biden needs to shutup.  You can't win at poker or politics when you play with the cards face up.  Every time he makes a threat he backs NATO further into a corner and limits their response.


----------



## Halifax Tar

YZT580 said:


> Biden needs to shutup.  You can't win at poker or politics when you play with the cards face up.  Every time he makes a threat he backs NATO further into a corner and limits their response.



Biden is playing go fish, but he thinks it's poker... and the world cringes


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Halifax Tar said:


> Biden is playing go fish, but he thinks it's poker... and the world cringes


Crazy 8s 🤣

Not going to lie, I absolutely could not give a crap about the Ukraine, it's not worth one drop of Canadian blood.  

I don't think the Western Europeans care either, otherwise they would ween themselves off the teat of Russian Oil & Gas.  

I think everyone believes the Russians are bluffing, believes they are weak and wouldn't possibly do this.  

"Their GDP is so low compared to us"
"We won't let them bank with us, that'll teach them!"
"We will sanction them"

The West sounds like a spoiled fat kid with its bluster 🤣

If only the availability of a Starbucks Latté was a factor that actually mattered in War.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Crazy 8s 🤣
> 
> Not going to lie, I absolutely could not give a crap about the Ukraine, it's not worth one drop of Canadian blood.
> 
> I don't think the Western Europeans care either, otherwise they would ween themselves off the teat of Russian Oil & Gas.
> 
> I think everyone believes the Russians are bluffing, believes they are weak and wouldn't possibly do this.
> 
> "Their GDP is so low compared to us"
> "We won't let them bank with us, that'll teach them!"
> "We will sanction them"
> 
> The West sounds like a spoiled fat kid with its bluster 🤣
> 
> If only the availability of a Starbucks Latté was a factor that actually mattered in War.



I couldn't agree more.


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I don't think the Western Europeans care either, otherwise they would ween themselves off the teat of Russian Oil & Gas.
> 
> I think everyone believes the Russians are bluffing, believes they are weak and wouldn't possibly do this.



Russia will always have a card to play until Europe can become energy self sufficient, or atleast less sufficient on Russia.

The west doesn't believe Russia will play hard ball and actually invade, they think Russia won't risk the sanctions, even though they gave twice. No western leader wants to be the one to call Russia out on there shit, we all know Russia is In Ukraine, but we haven't had a moment of international embarrassment like when they were caught in Cuba. We have no cards we seem to be willing to play that will get Russia to back right off.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Russia will always have a card to play until Europe can become energy self sufficient, or atleast less sufficient on Russia.
> 
> The west doesn't believe Russia will play hard ball and actually invade, they think Russia won't risk the sanctions, even though they gave twice. No western leader wants to be the one to call Russia out on there shit, we all know Russia is In Ukraine, but we haven't had a moment of international embarrassment like when they were caught in Cuba. We have no cards we seem to be willing to play that will get Russia to back right off.


I'm not sure Russia really wants to see if NATO will react.
  Unlike the Crimea - US forces are not in Afghanistan or Iraq, and thus available for combat deployment.

As far as cards go, we have a robust Int and SOF apparatus that can turn up the heat on Russia, both inside and their border puppets.

When you look at Belarus, it was racked with rioting and protests against the Lukashenko election "win", the candle there is lit - it would be easy to arm and train an insurgency that would internally take over Belarus.

I think Putin understands that not only would he be facing a Ukrainian insurgency equipped and trained by US (at min) forces - but Belarus would be also on the table then.



Humphrey Bogart said:


> Crazy 8s 🤣
> 
> Not going to lie, I absolutely could not give a crap about the Ukraine, it's not worth one drop of Canadian blood.


Evil will triumph when good men doing nothing...

My view is that if Putin goes into Ukraine again - it is really not going to stop, until he's recreated the USSR to it's former borders.
  A lot more blood and treasure will be lost if it isn't squashed now -- appeasement isn't a valid COA.




Humphrey Bogart said:


> I don't think the Western Europeans care either, otherwise they would ween themselves off the teat of Russian Oil & Gas.
> 
> I think everyone believes the Russians are bluffing, believes they are weak and wouldn't possibly do this.
> 
> "Their GDP is so low compared to us"
> "We won't let them bank with us, that'll teach them!"
> "We will sanction them"
> 
> The West sounds like a spoiled fat kid with its bluster 🤣
> 
> If only the availability of a Starbucks Latté was a factor that actually mattered in War.


I don't think anyone in any sort of Mil or Gov leadership position thinks this -- I think they wish it was true - but they fully understand that Putin would and could. 
   The only question is what will the West do as a collective about it.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Halifax Tar said:


> Biden is playing go fish, but he thinks it's poker... and the world cringes


So what type of card game is Trudeau and Joly playing, ‘Uno’, hell we don’t even have 52 cards in our deck.


----------



## YZT580

Czech_pivo said:


> So what type of card game is Trudeau and Joly playing, ‘Uno’, hell we don’t even have 52 cards in our deck.


He is the guy standing behind the table.  He has no chips in the game but he does have an opinion as to which cards the others should play.  He is pandering to the Ukrainian vote knowing that he will never be called.


----------



## KevinB

YZT580 said:


> He is the guy standing behind the table.  He has no chips in the game but he does have an opinion as to which cards the others should play.  He is pandering to the Ukrainian vote knowing that he will never be called.


He's going to step on his dick.   He's going to get a call from the Ukraine - and then he's going to need to look at his chips, how few he has, and if he's willing to lose them.


----------



## Brad Sallows

Biden should declare a red line.  Those are never crossed.


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> He's going to step on his dick.   He's going to get a call from the Ukraine - and then he's going to need to look at his chips, how few he has, and if he's willing to lose them.


Someone needs to call him out, publicly, and brutally honest, if we leave Ukraine out to dry, the west's word is worth nothing.


----------



## Good2Golf

Czech_pivo said:


> So what type of card game is Trudeau and Joly playing, ‘Uno’, hell we don’t even have 52 cards in our deck.


Yeah Trudeau is 51.9 cards short of a full deck….



KevinB said:


> Evil will triumph when good men doing nothing...
> 
> My view is that if Putin goes into Ukraine again - it is really not going to stop, until he's recreated the USSR to it's former borders.


I think Putin is moving into new territory…the USSR was a past construct that doesn’t support his own nihilistic, anarchic destructive ideology.

An interesting piece about what it is that Putin truly wants…destabilizing and causing others to feel his deliberate destructiveness against global societies against which he feels aggrieved.  Ukraine destruction is but the vanguard of his lawless (or more accurately, ‘anti-law’) approach to take what he wants and destroy what others value. 

WHAT DOES VLADIMIR PUTIN WANT?


> CCuriously, little in-depth work examines what Vladimir Putin wants—his ultimate goals. Analyses tend to be superficial and focused on the latest manifestation of his will. It is easy to see that the Russian regime intends to dominate and neutralize Ukraine, preventing it from becoming a free and democratic regime. These are its goals in Belarus and Georgia, too, as well as the Caucasus, where it has de facto control over Armenia and a foothold in Azerbaijan, and Central Asia, where protests in Kazakhstan were immediately crushed by Russian troops. Likewise, Russia seeks to destabilize Africa, weaken Western democracies and the European Union, and encourage illiberal movements to the maximum possible extent. Finally, it seeks to corrode and ultimately render irrelevant international law, and to strengthen dictatorial and criminal regimes wherever it can—above all in Syria, but also in Venezuela, Cuba, and Myanmar. Supporting these regimes is, for Russia, a matter of principle.


More at article link.


----------



## Altair

YZT580 said:


> Biden needs to shutup.  You can't win at poker or politics when you play with the cards face up.  Every time he makes a threat he backs NATO further into a corner and limits their response.


People keep talking and acting as if America is at the height of its power. 

It's not. It has elected 3 men in a row that wanted nothing more than to bring every soldier home and put America first. That's not the kind of country that is interested in enforcing its will abroad.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> Someone needs to call him out, publicly, and brutally honest, if we leave Ukraine out to dry, the west's word is worth nothing.


The west, the military, politicians, they called out the USA when the former president left the Kurds at the merci of the Turks, it did nothing.


----------



## MilEME09

Altair said:


> The west, the military, politicians, they called out the USA when the former president left the Kurds at the merci of the Turks, it did nothing.


Syrian chemical weapons, Iran & North Korea nuclear programs.....the list goes on


----------



## Halifax Tar

Czech_pivo said:


> So what type of card game is Trudeau and Joly playing, ‘Uno’, hell we don’t even have 52 cards in our deck.



He (we) aren't allowed to sit at the card table with the adults.


----------



## Good2Golf

Altair said:


> People keep talking and acting as if America is at the height of its power.
> 
> It's not. It has elected 3 men in a row that wanted nothing more than to bring every soldier home and put America first. *That's not the kind of country that is interested in enforcing its will abroad.*



11 nuclear carrier strike groups say you’re quite wrong.


----------



## MilEME09

Good2Golf said:


> 11 nuclear carrier strike groups say you’re quite wrong.


Having the kit, and using it are two different things


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> Having the kit, and using it are two different things


Using what…the nuclear weapons in board?  Conventional weapons? Other capabilities?

You mean a force-in-being is insufficient, and you judge that those CSGs won’t ever be ordered to act as a force of influence?

What as the Kuzentsov done lately to demonstrate influence?

China’s Type 002 CV?

All ineffectual?


----------



## The Bread Guy

> WHAT DOES VLADIMIR PUTIN WANT?
> .... the Russian regime intends to dominate and neutralize Ukraine, preventing it from becoming a free and democratic regime. These are its goals in Belarus and Georgia, too, as well as the Caucasus, where it has de facto control over Armenia and a foothold in Azerbaijan, and Central Asia, where protests in Kazakhstan were immediately crushed by Russian troops ...


... all without the expense (blood/treasure as well as ongoing O&M) of having to occupy these places & run them as bits of Russia-Plus.


----------



## daftandbarmy

An interesting article from the NY Times.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion​If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

“A hypothetical Russian invasion of Ukraine would not undermine the security of the United States,” said Dmitry Suslov, an analyst in Moscow who gave a closed-door presentation on the standoff to Russian lawmakers last month. “The overall logic of Russian actions is that it is the U.S. and NATO that must pay a high price.”

And as Ukrainians were reminded anew on Friday, as the websites of the country’s ministries were defaced in a somewhat amateurish attack, Russia’s army of hackers can wreak havoc in Ukraine, but also in power grids from Munich to Michigan.

It could all be bluster, part of a Kremlin campaign of intimidation, and a way of reminding President Biden that while he wants to focus American attention on competing and dealing with China, Mr. Putin is still capable of causing enormous disruption.

The Russian leader telegraphed that approach himself by warning repeatedly in the past year that if the West crossed the ever-shifting “red line” that, in Mr. Putin’s mind, threatens Russia’s security, he would order an unexpected response.

“Russia’s response will be asymmetrical, fast and tough,” Mr. Putin said last April, referring to the kinds of unconventional military action that Russia could take if adversaries threatened “our fundamental security interests.”

The current crisis was touched off by the Kremlin’s release of a series of demands that, if the U.S. and its allies agreed, would effectively restore Russia’s sphere of influence close to Soviet-era lines, before NATO expanded into Eastern Europe. It has also demanded that all U.S. nuclear weapons be withdrawn from Europe, saying it felt threatened by their presence — though the types and locations of those weapons haven’t changed in years. And it wants a stop to all Western troop rotations through former Warsaw Pact states that have since joined NATO
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/01/07/world/europe/ukraine-maps.html
It has reinforced those demands, which the U.S. calls “non-starters,” with a troop buildup near Ukraine and repeated warnings it was prepared to use unspecified “military-technical means” to defend what it considers its legitimate security interests.

In response, the Biden administration has issued warnings of financial and technological sanctions if the Kremlin should follow through with its threats, particularly in regard to Ukraine. American officials say that for all the talk about moving nuclear weapons or using asymmetrical attacks, so far the U.S. has seen little evidence.

At a White House briefing on Thursday, Jake Sullivan, Mr. Biden’s national security adviser, declined to be drawn into the question of what kind of Russian action would trigger a U.S. response — whether, for example, the U.S. would respond to a cyberattack the way it would an incursion into Ukrainian territory.

“The United States and our allies are prepared for any contingency, any eventuality,’’ he said. “We’re prepared to keep moving forward down the diplomatic path in good faith, and we’re prepared to respond to fresh acts. And beyond that, all we can do is get ready. And we are ready.”

Of course, the most obvious scenario given the scale of troop movements on the ground is a Russian invasion of Ukraine — maybe not to take over the entire country but to send troops into the breakaway regions around the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk, or to roll all the way to the Dnieper River. At the Pentagon, “five or six different options” for the extent of a Russian invasion are being examined, one senior official reported.

Researchers tracking social-media footage have spotted numerous signs of additional Russian military equipment being shipped westward by train from Siberia. In Russia, state television has been filled with commentators’ warnings that Ukraine could soon attack Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine — fitting with Washington’s allegation on Friday that Russian operatives, with specialties in explosives and urban warfare, have infiltrated Ukraine and might be planning to stage a provocation to justify an invasion. Russia denied the allegation.
Yevgeny Buzhinsky, a retired lieutenant general and a regular Russian television commentator, predicted a looming “limited” war provoked by Ukraine that Russia would win in short order through devastating airstrikes.

“There will be no columns of tanks,” General Buzhinsky said in a phone interview. “They will just destroy all the Ukrainian infrastructure from the air, just like you do it.”

In Geneva, Russian diplomats insisted there were no plans to invade Ukraine. But there were hints of other steps. In one little-noticed remark, a senior Russian diplomat said Moscow was prepared to place unspecified weapons systems in unspecified places. That merged with American intelligence assessments that Russia could be considering new nuclear deployments, perhaps tactical nuclear weapons or a powerful emerging arsenal of hypersonic missiles.

In November, Mr. Putin himself suggested Russia could deploy submarine-based hypersonic missiles within close striking distance of Washington. He has said repeatedly that the prospect of Western military expansion in Ukraine poses an unacceptable risk because it could be used to launch a nuclear strike against Moscow with just a few minutes’ warning. Russia, he made clear, could do the same.

“From the beginning of the year we will have in our arsenal a new sea-based missile, a hypersonic one,” Mr. Putin said, referring to a weapon that travels at more than five times the speed of sound and could likely evade existing missile defenses.

In an apparent reference to the American capital, he added: “The flight time to reach those who give the orders will also be five minutes.”
Mr. Putin said he would deploy such missiles only in response to Western moves, and President Biden told Mr. Putin in their last conversation that the United States has no plans to place offensive strike systems in Ukraine.

Russian officials hinted again in recent days about new missile deployments, and American officials repeated that they have seen no moves in that direction. But any effort to place weapons close to American cities would create conditions similar to the 1962 crisis that was the closest the world ever came to a nuclear exchange.

Asked about the nature of what Mr. Putin has termed a possible “military-technical” response, Sergei A. Ryabkov, a deputy foreign minister, said in Geneva on Monday: “Right now there is no reason to talk about what systems will be deployed, in what quantity, and where exactly.”
​








						Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion
					

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

RUS state TV commentator/director:  they're part of us, reeeeeeeeally, right?


> Anton Krasovsky, director of broadcasting for the Russian state-funded RT channel, has used his chat show to assure Ukrainians, whom he calls ‘animals’, that Russia will invade on any sign that Ukraine is near joining NATO.  While Krasovsky’s blustering about Ukraine being “our Russian land” is, on the whole, spoken with his customary smirk, it comes amid an escalation in warmongering hysteria in the Russian state media reminiscent of the propaganda in 2014.  Ukraine has been accused of planning “the extermination of the civilian population” in Donbas,, while Russia claimed to have “600 thousand moral reasons to announce an operation on forcing peace on Kyiv” (with this being the number of Ukrainians whom Russia has illegally provided with Russian citizenship.)
> 
> Krasovsky was speaking with Aleksandr Baunov, a senior fellow from the Carnegie Moscow Center. When the latter stated that there is a small chance that Ukraine and Georgia will join NATO while Putin is in power in Russia, Krasovsky interrupted with the following smirking tirade, addressing Ukrainians:
> 
> _“No, we’ll send troops into Ukraine, it’s our land.  Fuck you!  That’s what you’ll get [making an indecent gesture], not NATO!  Don’t even dream of it, animals!_
> 
> Baunov just laughs, while Krasovsky continues, saying that it is clear for any Russian that “_there is no Ukraine_”, that it “_is our Russian land_” and that Ukraine will not decide anything ....


Archive link if previous link doesn't work


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> RUS state TV commentator/director:  they're part of us, reeeeeeeeally, right?
> 
> Archive link if previous link doesn't work


Sounds like Germany justifying it taking Austria and Czechaslovakia


----------



## Altair

Good2Golf said:


> 11 nuclear carrier strike groups say you’re quite wrong.


Yes, they have 11 nuclear carrier strike groups. Should have plopped them down in the middle of Kabul. 

Or put one in Kiev.


----------



## Good2Golf

daftandbarmy said:


> An interesting article from the NY Times.
> 
> Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion​If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.
> 
> VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.
> …



Subtle???

Russian submarine with 160 nukes on board surfaces off US coast. (Pravda.ru link)


> Russian nuclear submarine of the Borey project, which carries 16 Bulava ballistic missiles on board, unexpectedly appeared off the coast of the United States, having caused serious concerns in Washington.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Each of the missiles in service with the submarine is capable of carrying up to ten nuclear warheads. This created an extremely serious danger for the United States, given that the US military have not been able to track the Russian nuclear submarine.
> 
> 
> 
> According to _NetEase_ publication, Russian nuclear submarine of the Borey project (according to other sources, it was an Akula project submarine), approached the US coast unnoticed. It was possible to establish the whereabouts of the nuclear submarine with up to 160 nuclear warheads on boards after the sub started going back to the base. A submarine of this class is capable of destroying most of the territory of the United States of America in minutes.
> 
> Russian nuclear submarines will be able to constantly patrol the waters near the US coast in the event that Russia decides to build a naval base in Cuba or Venezuela, as representatives for the Russian Foreign Ministry earlier said.
> 
> 
> Читайте больше на Russian Borey class submarine carrying 160 nukes on board surfaced off US coast
Click to expand...


More at Pravda.ru article link.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> Subtle???
> 
> Russian submarine with 160 nukes on board surfaces off US coast. (Pravda.ru link)


At least allegedly - good catch!


----------



## Good2Golf

The Bread Guy said:


> At least allegedly - good catch!


Don’t forget the building Russian naval bases in Cuna and Venezuela bit…

Get into Putin’s mind…I think the Ukraine is just a pretext to let Vlad justify putting fear back into America by putting nukes (aside from SSBNs) within a stone’s throw of CONUS.


----------



## Altair

Good2Golf said:


> Don’t forget the building Russian naval bases in Cuna and Venezuela bit…
> 
> Get into Putin’s mind…I think the Ukraine is just a pretext to let Vlad justify putting fear back into America by putting nukes (aside from SSBNs) within a stone’s throw of CONUS.


I dunno, I think Vlad would be happier with the west and NATO ceding Ukraine to Russian influence rather than needing to invade it and position military assets in the Americas


----------



## Good2Golf

Altair said:


> I dunno, I think Vlad would be happier with the west and NATO ceding Ukraine to Russian influence rather than needing to invade it and position military assets in the Americas


Then you don’t understand Putin.  The Ukraine is but a means to an end, causing greater disruption amongst those whom he wishes to apply his nihilistic power.  The Ukraine is not at all an endpoint.


----------



## Altair

Good2Golf said:


> Then you don’t understand Putin.  The Ukraine is but a means to an end, causing greater disruption amongst those whom he wishes to apply his nihilistic power.  The Ukraine is not at all an endpoint.


It's not an endpoint, but I think he would be far more pleased to not have to use blood and treasure and just have the west roll over and give in to his demands. Do I think his demands end at Ukraine, no. He likely would want the same or similar demands on Finland just looking at the map.

But I don't think he would escalate to putting military assets in the Americas if he was getting his way in Europe.

As for I don't know Vlad, sure. But who in 2020, or early 2021 predicted a Russian invasion of Ukraine?


----------



## Good2Golf

Altair said:


> But I don't think he would escalate to putting military assets in the Americas if he was getting his way in Europe.


We’ll see. Getting his way in Europe is just one region he will see nations yield to him.



Altair said:


> As for I don't know Vlad, sure. But who in 2020, or early 2021 predicted a Russian invasion of Ukraine?


Really?   😆 

How about “Everybody who saw him in Georgia and oh, what was that other country he invaded in 2014?  Ummmm….uhhh…starts with….U….U…oh yeah, that it…Ukraine!”


----------



## Altair

Good2Golf said:


> We’ll see. Getting his way in Europe is just one region he will see nations yield to him.
> 
> 
> Really?   😆
> 
> How about “Everybody who saw him in Georgia and oh, what was that other country he invaded in 2014?  Ummmm….uhhh…starts with….U….U…oh yeah, that it…Ukraine!”


Hey, you show the posts where people said watch out for a Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and I'll give the appropriate kudos.


----------



## Good2Golf

Altair said:


> Hey, you show the posts where people said watch out for a Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and I'll give the appropriate kudos.


Ah, the ‘show me every post where people were tracking the death of 14,000 in the Donbas and anticipating subsequent invasion…didn’t happen’ game…no thanks.  You go back on ignore. 

You were insufferable enough with your arrogant “Everybody who doesn’t believe PMJT will get vaccinations for all Canadians by end-Sep 2021 (he didn’t - only 83%) will owe me to eat crow.”

Now it’s ‘Putin will stop at Ukraine’ and ‘nobody saw this coming’…

See ya later…


----------



## Altair

Good2Golf said:


> Ah, the ‘show me every post where people were tracking the death of 14,000 in the Donbas and anticipating subsequent invasion…didn’t happen’ game…no thanks.  You go back on ignore.


Please don't take me off ignore again please.  You're ignore, not ignore stuff reminds me of my ex girlfriends....in high school. 


Good2Golf said:


> You were insufferable enough with your arrogant “Everybody who doesn’t believe PMJT will get vaccinations for all Canadians by end-Sep 2021 (he didn’t - only 83%) will owe me to eat crow.”





			https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-vaccine-all-eligible-canadians-1.6118908
		



> CBC News · Posted: Jul 27, 2021 11:01 AM ET | Last Updated: July 27, 2021
> 
> Canada has enough COVID-19 vaccine doses to fully vaccinate everyone eligible in the country, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said at a Moncton, N.B., vaccine clinic this morning.
> 
> The arrival of five million doses this week will bring the total to over 66 million — enough for all 33.2 million Canadians 12 and older. Children under 12 are not yet eligible to receive a vaccine.
> 
> "With enough doses for everyone, there's no more excuses not to get your shot," Trudeau said.
> 
> The Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) and the government had set the end of September as the date when all Canadians who want to be fully vaccinated would be able to get both doses.


Why do you feel the need to lie so much?



> Now it’s ‘Putin will stop at Ukraine’ and ‘nobody saw this coming’…
> 
> See ya later…


Meh, you cannot back up what you say and you run when called out on it. 

Nothing new.


----------



## Brad Sallows

Putin feels about territory the way some people feel about money.  More.  That's all.


----------



## Halifax Tar

@Good2Golf and @Altair you guys should have a syndicated show on a 24 hours news channel.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some tidbits ....

_"... According to (BLR President) Aleksandr Lukashenko, __*the situation on the southern borders of Belarus is concerning. “Ukraine is building up its military presence deploying forces of the national guard from ‘radical nationalists'. This is more striking than NATO's troops. All that is going on near the State Border of our country. They are allegedly going to fight against migrants. Migrants will not go there in any case. They are not going to Ukraine, and we understand that*__. Ukrainian people are leaving their own country, and they are going to ‘protect themselves from migrants from Belarus',” Aleksandr Lukashenko said ironically ..."_ (Belarus state media, links to archived version of article)
*"Belarus Announces Joint Drills With Russia in February"* (RUS independent media) - Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty version
*"Opinion: Allied Resolve exercise is not a step towards confrontation wit collective West"* (Belarus state media, links to archived version of article)
*"Exercises on Russian soil not linked with intra-Ukrainian settlement, says envoy to OSCE"* (RUS state media, links to archived version of article)


----------



## Good2Golf

Halifax Tar said:


> @Good2Golf and @Altair you guys should have a syndicated show on a 24 hours news channel.


Yeah, it might be entertaining 😉 but not necessarily productive for the effort expended. 

My preference would to give periodic discussion of issues on principle, based on a mindful consideration of Putin’s adversarial, destructive actions and intents, vice the repetitive drone of unconsidered sound-bites that pretend to be insightful, but serve only to reinforce a cyclical hash of non-points.  Some folks depend on seeing “show me” post by others here as reinforcing or refuting points.  Others like to provide somewhat thought-provoking articles/writings as to an assessment/analysis of Putin’s motivation and potential extent of his actions. I choose the latter.


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> Some tidbits ....
> 
> _"... According to (BLR President) Aleksandr Lukashenko, __*the situation on the southern borders of Belarus is concerning. “Ukraine is building up its military presence deploying forces of the national guard from ‘radical nationalists'. This is more striking than NATO's troops. All that is going on near the State Border of our country. They are allegedly going to fight against migrants. Migrants will not go there in any case. They are not going to Ukraine, and we understand that*__. Ukrainian people are leaving their own country, and they are going to ‘protect themselves from migrants from Belarus',” Aleksandr Lukashenko said ironically ..."_ (Belarus state media, links to archived version of article)
> *"Belarus Announces Joint Drills With Russia in February"* (RUS independent media) - Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty version
> *"Opinion: Allied Resolve exercise is not a step towards confrontation wit collective West"* (Belarus state media, links to archived version of article)
> *"Exercises on Russian soil not linked with intra-Ukrainian settlement, says envoy to OSCE"* (RUS state media, links to archived version of article)


Joint drills in Feb with Russia you say? Hmmm sounds like a good time to invade


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> Joint drills in Feb with Russia you say? Hmmm sounds like a good time to invade


What?!?

Russia and Belarus have both said they wouldn’t invade…they are purely preparing to defend against a NATO invasion with its proxy Ukraine out front…


----------



## Altair

Halifax Tar said:


> @Good2Golf and @Altair you guys should have a syndicated show on a 24 hours news channel.


Yes yes, a very popular show it would be with G2G walking off every other show.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> Joint drills in Feb with Russia you say? Hmmm sounds like a good time to invade


... or to have some handy help on hand to, right?


----------



## Lancaster

The Bread Guy said:


> ... or to have some handy help on hand to, right?


Canada deploys special forces to Ukraine amid 
rising tensions with Russia.








						Canada deploys special forces to Ukraine amid rising tensions with Russia - National | Globalnews.ca
					

Global News has learned that a small contingent of Canadian special forces soldiers sent to aid Ukrainian government, plan for potential embassy evacuation should Russia invade.




					globalnews.ca
				




Is a war coming?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Movements for the big upcoming BLR-RUS ex (?)  Source

That's the BLR-UKR border in yellow @ the bottom of this map

Meanwhile, from the U.K. ...


> ... According to a statement given by the Defence Secretary in the House of Commons today, the 17th of January 2022.
> 
> _“As of today, tens of thousands of Russian troops are positioned close to the Ukrainian border. Their deployment is not routine, and they are equipped with tanks, armoured fighting vehicles, rocket artillery, and short-range ballistic missiles.
> 
> I can today confirm to the House that, in light of the increasingly threatening behaviour from Russia, and in addition to our current support, the UK is providing a new security assistance package to increase Ukraine’s defensive capabilities.
> 
> We have taken the decision to supply Ukraine with light, anti-armour, defensive weapon systems. A small number of UK personnel will also provide early-stage training for a short period of time, within the framework of Operation ORBITAL, before then returning to the United Kingdom ..._


----------



## Spencer100

Lancaster said:


> Canada deploys special forces to Ukraine amid
> rising tensions with Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada deploys special forces to Ukraine amid rising tensions with Russia - National | Globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> Global News has learned that a small contingent of Canadian special forces soldiers sent to aid Ukrainian government, plan for potential embassy evacuation should Russia invade.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Is a war coming?


It is a deployment of force to get people out.  In my mind it doesn't mean a force to show any support to Ukraine.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Spencer100 said:


> It is a deployment of force to get people out.  In my mind it doesn't mean a force to show any support to Ukraine.


So they've been there 8 days so far.  A decent amount of time to plan an evac out of Kiev that most likely won't be done from air (at least from Kiev).  Going to assume that some 8 wheeled transport may have gone with them and a drive to Poland might be in the works or somewhere much closer to Poland/Slovakia so some planes could be flown in.

Wondering if a plane load of Carl G's came with them


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> Wondering if a plane load of Carl G's came with them


Nah probably just some dusty old Eryx's


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> Nah probably just some dusty old Eryx's


Well we used to have over 400 launchers and 10X that number in missiles.


----------



## McG

Czech_pivo said:


> Kiev


That’s Russian.
You mean Kyiv.


----------



## SupersonicMax

McG said:


> That’s Russian


Or French….


----------



## Czech_pivo

McG said:


> That’s Russian.
> You mean Kyiv.


I learned it as Kiev here in Canada and it’s Kiev until the day I die. It’s also Lvov, not Lviv and I still say Burma, Calcutta and Bombay. It’s Brussels not Bruxelles, Liege not Luik, Aachen not Aix la Chapelle, Antwerp not Anvers. 
The old names work just fine.


----------



## MilEME09

Russian Troops Enter Belarus, Escalating Threat of Kyiv Encirclement
					

Russian military forces reportedly moved into Belarus Monday, adding to the warning signs that Moscow may attack Ukraine in the coming weeks.




					coffeeordie.com
				




Well this paints a grim picture of Russia preparing for war. Reserves being called up, troops and equipment being hauled all the way from the North Korean border region to Belarus, wasn't the last time they shifted people in mass from Siberia was 42........

Regardless, if this is a bluff, it is an expensive one, if it's not, unless Ukraine secretly kept a tactical nuke or two, 100 BTG's are going to roll eastern Ukraine, or we find out Russian forces aren't as good as we thought.

One thing I know for sure, if Russia goes In, they won't give it back.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> Russian Troops Enter Belarus, Escalating Threat of Kyiv Encirclement
> 
> 
> Russian military forces reportedly moved into Belarus Monday, adding to the warning signs that Moscow may attack Ukraine in the coming weeks.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> coffeeordie.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Well this paints a grim picture of Russia preparing for war. Reserves being called up, troops and equipment being hauled all the way from the North Korean border region to Belarus, wasn't the last time they shifted people in mass from Siberia was 42........
> 
> Regardless, if this is a bluff, it is an expensive one, if it's not, unless Ukraine secretly kept a tactical nuke or two, 100 BTG's are going to roll eastern Ukraine, or we find out Russian forces aren't as good as we thought.
> 
> One thing I know for sure, if Russia goes In, they won't give it back.


I think the only thing in question is where do the Russians seem fit to stop. 

Dnieper might be the best case scenario, but they might just want to crush Ukraine wholesale if they see the opportunity


----------



## The Bread Guy

The Bread Guy said:


> ... Meanwhile, from the U.K. ...


About those Brit flights with anti-tank weapons ....


> Diplomatic editor @MarkUrban01 reports that planes to Ukraine with British anti-tank missiles avoided German and Dutch airspace and there's speculation the Germans oppose sending the supplies to Ukraine ...


Bit more from this OSINT guy ...


> A second RAF C-17 is heading towards Ukraine this evening, both deliberately avoided German airspace. I wonder if Germany is refusing flights with weapons for Ukraine access to their airspace.


Map from the OSINT guy

🍿


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> I think the only thing in question is where do the Russians seem fit to stop.
> 
> Dnieper might be the best case scenario, but they might just want to crush Ukraine wholesale if they see the opportunity


The Ukraine government is making some fairly bold statements. Not seeing anything from our side in making an attempt to water down or deny.

"In particular, we discuss cooperation with Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Canada is currently making a visit to Kyiv. Canada and the United Kingdom confirmed that they would not react in any way to Putin's ultimatums to withdraw military training units from Ukraine. *Moreover, their activities will continue and intensify," Stefanishyna said.*

According to her, the Ukrainian side has no illusions that the NATO army will fight in our territory, while in the interests of the Allies to shore up Ukraine's defense capabilities. "This has also been confirmed," she said.

As noted, Ukraine is also in talks with a number of other NATO members to strengthen cooperation in the defense sphere. The Deputy PM refused to disclose details, noting these agreements began to be seriously discussed after the NATO-Ukraine Commission meeting.









						Google News
					

Comprehensive up-to-date news coverage, aggregated from sources all over the world by Google News.




					news.google.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> The Ukraine government is making some fairly bold statements ...


They have, but it's always the juggle between what was _said_, what was _heard_ and what was _shared with the media_ that make keeping track of this stuff (or any news story, for that matter) interesting.

Mind you, UKR has a history of "announcing" stuff involving the Canadians sooner than the official Canadian info-machine version comes out, too.


----------



## suffolkowner

The inability to compete in the air domain still looks to be Ukraines major weakness, however with troop and equipment movements from the Central and Eastern Military Districts it sure looks like Russia is getting ready to throw everything at Ukraine. I would have to think that this would put some major pressure on the nuclear non proliferation agreement.


----------



## Czech_pivo

suffolkowner said:


> The inability to compete in the air domain still looks to be Ukraines major weakness, however with troop and equipment movements from the Central and Eastern Military Districts it sure looks like Russia is getting ready to throw everything at Ukraine. I would have to think that this would put some major pressure on the nuclear non proliferation agreement.


There was an interesting snippet of information from some Sr Russian Officer where is said something like, ' we will take out their infrastructure from a distance, just like you do'.

If I can find that quote, I'll post it but I find it telling. It sounds like they are planning (or at least they want us to think this), to stand off (if it comes to a shooting war) and pound the Ukrainians from a safe distance to the point that organized resistance will be difficult and then drive right in.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Czech_pivo said:


> There was an interesting snippet of information from some Sr Russian Officer where is said something like, ' we will take out their infrastructure from a distance, just like you do'.
> 
> If I can find that quote, I'll post it but I find it telling. It sounds like they are planning (or at least they want us to think this), to stand off (if it comes to a shooting war) and pound the Ukrainians from a safe distance to the point that organized resistance will be difficult and then drive right in.


Found it -

“There will be no columns of tanks,” General Buzhinsky said in a phone interview. “They will just destroy all the Ukrainian infrastructure from the air, just like you do it.”


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> “There will be no columns of tanks,” General Buzhinsky said in a phone interview. “They will just destroy all the Ukrainian infrastructure from the air, just like you do it.”


Yup - from the NY Times - with far less GAF about collateral damage on the part of Team Russia, if armed push comes to shove.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Brush up on your Russian. Have a look at this guys twitter feed - @girkingirkin


----------



## The Bread Guy

A bit of analysis by Reuters


> NATO would be likely to reinforce its troop presence in the Black Sea and the Baltics while fending off cyberattacks if Russia were to invade Ukraine, diplomats and former officials said.
> 
> But with the Western military alliance under no treaty obligation to defend Ukraine, which is not a NATO member, some of the toughest decisions could fall on the European Union ...


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> A bit of analysis by Reuters


The Budapest memorandum though in theory could pull in the US, but still unlikely they would do much. Ukraine needs a lot more firepower to hold the Russians at bay.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Weather forecast 14 days out for Kiev and Kharkov range from 1c to -8c for the highs with lots of cloud cover and then fog from the 28th through 1Feb. Some snow in the 25-27th Jan time period. 
Donetsk will range from highs of 2c with rain to -5c, with sunny mix towards the end of the month.
Feb 1 there will be no moon in Kiev, same timing as fog for the weather. 
For the next two weeks there looks to be no big significant cold snap or snow storms. Not sure if any of this will factor into the Russian plans.  The end of Stalingrad closed out on 2 Feb.


----------



## Jarnhamar

MilEME09 said:


> Well this paints a grim picture of Russia preparing for war. Reserves being called up


I wonder if Russian reservists tell their CoC "no" because they have exams.


----------



## MilEME09

Jarnhamar said:


> I wonder if Russian reservists tell their CoC "no" because they have exams.


Their options are Ukraine or gulag


----------



## The Bread Guy

And this wise guy's back on Twitter at it hard


----------



## Czech_pivo

Interesting flight plan for this RAF Transport plane









						RRR7205 UK Royal Air Force Transport Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware
					

Track UK Royal Air Force Transport  #7205 flight from RAF Waddington to RAF Waddington




					flightaware.com
				





Same with this plane - Hunstville Alabama to Poland to Ukraine. An Antonov.....heavy lift plane.









						ADB323F Antonov Design Bureau Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware
					

Track Antonov Design Bureau  #323F flight from Leipzig/Halle to Al Maktoum Int'l




					flightaware.com


----------



## MilEME09

This one came up today in my OSINT feed,









						Russia Thins Out Its Embassy in Ukraine, a Possible Clue to Putin’s Next Move
					

The slow evacuation may be part propaganda, part preparation for a conflict or part feint, Ukrainian and U.S. officials say. It could be all three.




					www.nytimes.com
				




One usually doesn't evacuate all diplomatic staff unless preparing for something


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> This one came up today in my OSINT feed,
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia Thins Out Its Embassy in Ukraine, a Possible Clue to Putin’s Next Move
> 
> 
> The slow evacuation may be part propaganda, part preparation for a conflict or part feint, Ukrainian and U.S. officials say. It could be all three.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> One usually doesn't evacuate all diplomatic staff unless preparing for something


Lies, all lies 

_*"*_*Russia Insists Embassy Staff Have Not Been Evacuated From Ukraine Amid Invasion Fears”* (Newsweek)
*“Russian embassy in Kiev working as usual — foreign ministry”* (RUS state media)
*“Ukrainian MFA receives no information from Russia on Russian diplomats’ evacuation from Ukraine – spokesperson”* (UKR media)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> Same with this plane - Hunstville Alabama to Poland to Ukraine. An Antonov.....heavy lift plane.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ADB323F Antonov Design Bureau Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware
> 
> 
> Track Antonov Design Bureau  #323F flight from Leipzig/Halle to Al Maktoum Int'l
> 
> 
> 
> 
> flightaware.com


On this one, one can say it's closer to matching the great circle route between the two places


----------



## Good2Golf

The Bread Guy said:


> Lies, all lies
> 
> _*"*_*Russia Insists Embassy Staff Have Not Been Evacuated From Ukraine Amid Invasion Fears”* (Newsweek)
> *“Russian embassy in Kiev working as usual — foreign ministry”* (RUS state media)
> *“Ukrainian MFA receives no information from Russia on Russian diplomats’ evacuation from Ukraine – spokesperson”* (UKR media)


As they say, it’s all rumour until the Kremlin denies it! 😉


----------



## Spencer100

The Bread Guy said:


> And this wise guy's back on Twitter at it hard
> View attachment 68135
> View attachment 68136
> View attachment 68138View attachment 68139


Come on Scarlett take one for the team......she did date Spicoli at one time!


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> On this one, one can say it's closer to matching the great circle route between the two places
> View attachment 68140
> View attachment 68141


Were you aware of the fact that Huntsville Alabama is the where the US Army Aviation and Missile Command is located? 
And if you look at the logs, the plane was diverted to Rzeszow and then sent on to Ukraine. 
My neighbours are from the area just outside Rzeszow, there is little to no reason for there to be a regular flight service between it and Huntsville.


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> Were you aware of the fact that Huntsville Alabama is the where the US Army Aviation and Missile Command is located?
> And if you look at the logs, the plane was diverted to Rzeszow and then sent on to Ukraine.
> My neighbours are from the area just outside Rzeszow, there is little to no reason for there to be a regular flight service between it and Huntsville.


That brings even more questions as to what's on that plane, especially bring a heavy lift plane, I doubt it flew to Ukraine empty.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> Were you aware of the fact that Huntsville Alabama is the where the US Army Aviation and Missile Command is located?
> And if you look at the logs, the plane was diverted to Rzeszow and then sent on to Ukraine.
> My neighbours are from the area just outside Rzeszow, there is little to no reason for there to be a regular flight service between it and Huntsville.


Noted the diversion, and the subsequent arrival in UKR - knew there's US mil presence in Huntsville, but didn't know about that specific facility.

Interesting times ....


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> A bit of analysis by Reuters


Would be interesting to see if our 200+/- troops in Ukraine would be moved over to Latvia as a temporary boost to our boots on the ground if things go hot in Ukraine.  Not sure how much kit/equipment they would be bringing with them.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Do you think that the Russian's would tip off the int'l aviation community to leave Ukrainian airspace just before they move in?  
Don't know if they'd care or not about another Malaysian Airways disaster.


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> Do you think that the Russian's would tip off the int'l aviation community to leave Ukrainian airspace just before they move in?
> Don't know if they'd care or not about another Malaysian Airways disaster.


Most airlines won't go near Ukraine any way, so I doubt Russia cares, the Ukrainian air force is pretty much grounded in a conflict anyway due to russias superior AA. The S-400's is Crimea alone lock down southern Ukraine.


----------



## Good2Golf

Czech_pivo said:


> Do you think that the Russian's would tip off the int'l aviation community to leave Ukrainian airspace just before they move in?
> Don't know if they'd care or not about another Malaysian Airways disaster.


Lessons Learned from MH-17 would indicate no.


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> On this one, one can say it's closer to matching the great circle route between the two places
> View attachment 68140
> View attachment 68141


Interesting that Antonov is heading towards the Gulf. I wonder where it’s heading.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> ... Well this paints a grim picture of Russia preparing for war. Reserves being called up ...


Meanwhile, in UKR ...


> As part of the deployment of the Territorial Defense System in Ukraine, more than 150 battalions will be created, each soldier of which will be assigned a weapon, the press service of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry reported on Tuesday.
> 
> "As part of the Territorial Defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the formation of 25 brigades (one region - one brigade) continues, which will unite more than 150 battalions (one battalion per district). The permanent strength of the Territorial Defense in peacetime will be 10,000 military personnel. According to the state of the special period, the units of the Territorial Defense will number more than 130,000 people, for which an appropriate reserve will be formed," the message, released following the meeting on the deployment of a territorial defense system, says ...


Edited to add attached Google translation of UKR MoD statement on Territorial Def Forces (original in Ukrainian archived here)

Also, some YT video of Brit goodies arriving ....




More from the UKR MoD info-machine (Google translation of this in Ukrainian)


> Another consignment of international technical assistance from Great Britain to the Armed Forces of Ukraine has arrived in Ukraine. This time the partners provided new light anti-tank weapons.
> 
> Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine for European Integration Anatoliy Petrenko noted that this will strengthen Ukraine's defense capabilities, and the funds provided will be used exclusively for defense purposes.
> 
> "Undoubtedly, this will strengthen our troops, it will strengthen our defense capabilities. And I want to emphasize that this assistance will be used exclusively for defense purposes, to protect our troops, to protect critical infrastructure, and to protect civilians from any manifestations, any actions that could lead to escalation, "- Anatoliy Petrenko emphasized.
> 
> The Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine for European Integration also thanked the people and the Government of the United Kingdom for their support and expressed hope for further cooperation.


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Meanwhile, in UKR ...
> 
> Edited to add attached Google translation of UKR MoD statement on Territorial Def Forces (original in Ukrainian archived here)
> 
> Also, some YT video of Brit goodies arriving ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> More from the UKR MoD info-machine (Google translation of this in Ukrainian)


I saw that clip of the RAF plane on the Twitter feed of @girkingirkin

He's got alot of interesting clips from that area.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> Weather forecast 14 days out for Kiev and Kharkov range from 1c to -8c for the highs with lots of cloud cover and then fog from the 28th through 1Feb. Some snow in the 25-27th Jan time period.
> Donetsk will range from highs of 2c with rain to -5c, with sunny mix towards the end of the month.
> Feb 1 there will be no moon in Kiev, same timing as fog for the weather.
> For the next two weeks there looks to be no big significant cold snap or snow storms. Not sure if any of this will factor into the Russian plans.  The end of Stalingrad closed out on 2 Feb.


Winter Olympics start Feb 4th.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Altair said:


> Winter Olympics start Feb 4th.



More and more I am falling in line with you


----------



## Czech_pivo

Czech_pivo said:


> Interesting that Antonov is heading towards the Gulf. I wonder where it’s heading.


That plane looks to have a flight line to:
LOHEGAON AIR FORCE BASE AIRPORT (PUNE (POONA)) PNQ​








						ADB323F Antonov Design Bureau Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware
					

Track Antonov Design Bureau  #323F flight from Leipzig/Halle to Al Maktoum Int'l




					flightaware.com


----------



## Spencer100

Plus the US may move or have moved Ex Afghan MI-17's to the Ukraine.  4 to start of the about 2 dozen aircraft that escaped the fall of Kabul. 









						US considering providing ex-Afghan Mi-17 helicopters for Ukraine
					

The United States is considering providing Ukraine with more weapons, including Mil Mi-17 helicopters previously belonged to the Afghan Air Force, CNN reported Monday. On November 22, CNN reported that the Biden administration is weighing sending military advisers and new equipment to Ukraine as...




					defence-blog.com


----------



## Altair

Spencer100 said:


> Plus the US may move or have moved Ex Afghan MI-17's to the Ukraine.  4 to start of the about 2 dozen aircraft that escaped the fall of Kabul.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> US considering providing ex-Afghan Mi-17 helicopters for Ukraine
> 
> 
> The United States is considering providing Ukraine with more weapons, including Mil Mi-17 helicopters previously belonged to the Afghan Air Force, CNN reported Monday. On November 22, CNN reported that the Biden administration is weighing sending military advisers and new equipment to Ukraine as...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> defence-blog.com


How long do helicopters last in a scenario where Russia has total air superiority?

1 day or 2 days?

The US response to this has been completely asinine


----------



## Spencer100

Altair said:


> How long do helicopters last in a scenario where Russia has total air superiority?
> 
> 1 day or 2 days?
> 
> The US response to this has been completely asinine


Is it asinine or just enough to say you did something but not enough to really help?

I think the administration has already wrote off the Ukraine.  On to build back better.


----------



## Altair

Spencer100 said:


> Is it asinine or just enough to say you did something but not enough to really help?


Oh, it's clear they plan do next to nothing and then say it's up to Ukraine to defend itself, just like Afghanistan.

The rules have been written now, if you're outside of NATO and Russia or China wanted to conquer you, you're done. US will fun your insurgency.



Spencer100 said:


> I think the administration has already wrote off the Ukraine.  On to build back better.


Yup, just going to close their eyes and ignore the end of Ukraine. Just like they did with Crimea, just like they did with Hong Kong, just like they will do with Taiwan.


----------



## Altair

Remember the USA saying they would remove Russia from the international banking system dealing a severe blow to the Russian economy?



			Redirect Notice
		




> Western governments are no longer considering cutting Russian banks off from the Swift global payments system, Germany's Handelsblatt newspaper reported, citing German government sources.
> 
> 
> Handelsblatt reported that, according to its government sources, economic sanctions targeting major Russian banks were being considered as an alternative.



The west couldn't even commit to that. Just rolling over.


----------



## Spencer100

Altair said:


> Oh, it's clear they plan do next to nothing and then say it's up to Ukraine to defend itself, just like Afghanistan.
> 
> The rules have been written now, if you're outside of NATO and Russia or China wanted to conquer you, you're done. US will fun your insurgency.
> 
> 
> Yup, just going to close their eyes and ignore the end of Ukraine. Just like they did with Crimea, just like they did with Hong Kong, just like they will do with Taiwan.


So if you're Taiwan. Do you cut the best deal now or wait and go down fighting? Or the third option move the nuke program to high gear?  But in realty a couple nukes would probably not stop the CCP.


----------



## Good2Golf

Spencer100 said:


> So if you're Taiwan. Do you cut the best deal now or wait and go down fighting? Or the third option move the nuke program to high gear?  But in realty a couple nukes would probably not stop the CCP.


Prep for BIP’ing 2/3 of the World’s semiconductor production…


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Czech_pivo said:


> Found it -
> 
> “There will be no columns of tanks,” General Buzhinsky said in a phone interview. “They will just destroy all the Ukrainian infrastructure from the air, just like you do it.”



I think they’ve been practicing some in Syria…


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Maybe something, maybe nothing, Russia moves Landing craft around.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> Remember the USA saying they would remove Russia from the international banking system dealing a severe blow to the Russian economy?
> 
> 
> 
> Redirect Notice
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The west couldn't even commit to that. Just rolling over.


A spokesperson for the White House National Security Council rejected the Handelsblatt story.

It seems that the Germans are balking at this.  Could also be the Russians planting false/misleading info, which I sometimes wonder if that occurs on here.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Colin Parkinson said:


> Maybe something, maybe nothing, Russia moves Landing craft around.


Hopefully they suffer the same fate as the last Baltic Fleet that tried to sail past Hamburg.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> A spokesperson for the White House National Security Council rejected the Handelsblatt story.
> 
> It seems that the Germans are balking at this.  Could also be the Russians planting false/misleading info, which I sometimes wonder if that occurs on here.


As goes Germany, as goes Europe.

I don't know everything about SWIFT, is it a US run system?  Can the USA block Russia and Europe continues with business as usual?

Regardless, if this is the case we are seeing a huge public split on the response to Russia.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Czech_pivo said:


> That plane looks to have a flight line to:
> LOHEGAON AIR FORCE BASE AIRPORT (PUNE (POONA)) PNQ​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ADB323F Antonov Design Bureau Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware
> 
> 
> Track Antonov Design Bureau  #323F flight from Leipzig/Halle to Al Maktoum Int'l
> 
> 
> 
> 
> flightaware.com


That Antonov was in Goose Bay prior to landing in Huntsville Alabama....









						Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map | Flightradar24
					

The world’s most popular flight tracker. Track planes in real-time on our flight tracker map and get up-to-date flight status & airport information.




					www.flightradar24.com


----------



## FJAG

I guess it's time to start working on putting a non socialist Oceania together.


----------



## Spencer100

FJAG said:


> I guess it's time to start working on putting a non socialist Oceania together.


Nonsocialist? Where are we going to find that?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Spencer100 said:


> Nonsocialist? Where are we going to find that?



Singapore, for one, is a benevolent dictatorship. Indonesia? Not so benevolent...









						Lee Kuan Yew's Troubling Legacy for Americans
					

Singapore's late leader governed undemocratically but effectively. Which raises a question: What is the ultimate purpose of government?




					www.theatlantic.com


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> A spokesperson for the White House National Security Council rejected the Handelsblatt story.
> 
> It seems that the Germans are balking at this.  Could also be the Russians planting false/misleading info, which I sometimes wonder if that occurs on here.


Not surprising, considering it was the Germans who vetoed NATO from supplying  weapons to Ukraine.


----------



## MilEME09

Retired AF Guy said:


> Not surprising, considering it was the Germans who vetoed NATO from supplying  weapons to Ukraine.


I am suspecting the Germans have been pushning back a lot, possibly due to Nordstream 2, and other gas pipelines, Germany may realize how by the balls russia actually has Europe, and might be trying to not piss them off, as a lot of Russian gas goes directly to Germany.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> I am suspecting the Germans have been pushning back a lot, possibly due to Nordstream 2, and other gas pipelines, Germany may realize how by the balls russia actually has Europe, and might be trying to not piss them off, as a lot of Russian gas goes directly to Germany.


Price to fuel Europe this year, Ukraine.

Price to fuel Europe next Olympics, Finland?


----------



## MilEME09

John Ivison: Canada's neglected military reaching point of being 'irrelevant'
					

The problem is that lack of military capacity is not a political issue. It’s not a subject that is close to Justin Trudeau’s heart




					nationalpost.com
				




Meanwhile hitting the nail on the head


----------



## Eye In The Sky

MilEME09 said:


> John Ivison: Canada's neglected military reaching point of being 'irrelevant'
> 
> 
> The problem is that lack of military capacity is not a political issue. It’s not a subject that is close to Justin Trudeau’s heart
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nationalpost.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Meanwhile hitting the nail on the head




What is with the cam jobs in the first pic?   Christ...

*The government’s record on buying new equipment in the past decade, under both Liberal and Conservative ministries, has been abysmal.*

_Just_ the last decade?  

I can't say many of the observations and comments weren't ones I was nodding "yup" to...especially the "social policy is priority" one.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some of the latest ...

*“Minister Joly meets with Ukrainian Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister”* (Global Affairs Canada info-machine)
*“As invasion threat looms, Ukraine asks for weapons — and Canada makes evacuation plans”* (CBC News)
*“Zelensky, Canada’s FM Joly discuss security challenges”* (UKR media)
*“Russia accuses Canada of ‘ignoring numerous crimes’ by Ukraine amid rising tensions”* (Globalnews.ca)
*“Russian Embassy in Ottawa rips Canadian minister’s remark on alleged Ukraine-Russia war”* (RUS state media) - link to archived article here if you don't want to link to a RUS server
For those trying to read into Putin a bit, the Kremlin info-machine posted the attached essay attributed to him in July 2021, _”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“ _- more tea leaves to be read.


----------



## Halifax Tar

So if this does kick off... Other than evacuate our nationals and hope our gals and guys in Latvia are ok what can we do ?  Or does anyone actually think the west (Including Canada) will respond militarily ?

If be interested to know if a NATO TG is in the Black Sea right now. 

Looks too me like it might be two or three pronged with Russia coming south from Belarus and west from the Crimea and their already captured Ukranian territory.  And a possiblity of an amphibious landing from the baltic.


----------



## Czech_pivo

It's interesting that Joly isn't meeting in Berlin with German officials but only in Paris and Brussels.  It suggests a 'break' with our Deutsch Komrade's.


----------



## Bluebulldog

Eye In The Sky said:


> What is with the cam jobs in the first pic? Christ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Halifax Tar said:


> ... Looks too me like it might be two or three pronged with Russia coming south from Belarus and west from the Crimea and their already captured Ukranian territory.  And a possiblity of an amphibious landing from the baltic.


Also, let's not forget that if Russia's sending troops for an "exercise" in northern Belaus while we're all watching Ukraine, there's that little bit of geography connecting Poland & Lithuania to keep an eye on, too.  If Russia gets that corridor, Baltics will be literally (not just virtually) surrounded by Russia/Belarus.


----------



## Spencer100

The Bread Guy said:


> Also, let's not forget that if Russia's sending troops for an "exercise" in northern Belaus while we're all watching Ukraine, there's that little bit of geography connecting Poland & Lithuania to keep an eye on, too.  If Russia gets that corridor, Baltics will be literally (not just virtually) surrounded by Russia/Belarus.
> View attachment 68163


 I don't think Putin will take that big a bite.  He is going to get something but the Baltic states are round two.  Just my -2cents.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Spencer100 said:


> I don't think Putin will take that big a bite.  He is going to get something but the Baltic states are round two.  Just my -2cents.


I don't think he will risk touching Polish soil. He then will have to deal with NATO and I doubt that is on his agenda.


----------



## Good2Golf

Czech_pivo said:


> I don't think he will risk touching Polish soil. He then will have to deal with NATO and I doubt that is on his agenda.


He’d have to be pretty inventive to turn that one into a “We were only protecting a Russian oblast…” case for action.


----------



## Altair

Halifax Tar said:


> So if this does kick off... Other than evacuate our nationals and hope our gals and guys in Latvia are ok what can we do ?  Or does anyone actually think the west (Including Canada) will respond militarily ?
> 
> If be interested to know if a NATO TG is in the Black Sea right now.
> 
> Looks too me like it might be two or three pronged with Russia coming south from Belarus and west from the Crimea and their already captured Ukranian territory.  And a possiblity of an amphibious landing from the baltic.


...Where could an amphibious landing...land...from the baltic?


----------



## Halifax Tar

Altair said:


> ...Where could an amphibious landing...land...from the baltic?



Desolee, I meant the Black Sea.


----------



## Altair

Halifax Tar said:


> Desolee, I meant the Black Sea.


Ah, seen. 

If I were to place bets on which sort of specialist operation we would see, I would bet on a airborne assault somewhere, maybe a key logistical center that the Russians don't want the Ukrainians blowing up.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> Ah, seen.
> 
> If I were to place bets on which sort of specialist operation we would see, I would bet on a airborne assault somewhere, maybe a key logistical center that the Russians don't want the Ukrainians blowing up.


The bridges, 4-5 of them, across the Dnieper for certain. 
Would be comparable to the Germans grabbing the Dutch bridges across the Maas and Meuse in May 1940.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> The bridges, 4-5 of them, across the Dnieper for certain.
> Would be comparable to the Germans grabbing the Dutch bridges across the Maas and Meuse in May 1940.


Or operation market garden, depending on how we see any airborne operation playing out.


----------



## Altair

On an unrelated note, does anyone know any map making companies, I have a feeling a lot of new ones will need to be printed off.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> Or operation market garden, depending on how we see any airborne operation playing out.


I'm hoping that it is a Bridge Too Far scenario for the Ivan's.  Won't shed a tear if they break their teeth on this venture.


----------



## YZT580

Czech_pivo said:


> The bridges, 4-5 of them, across the Dnieper for certain.
> Would be comparable to the Germans grabbing the Dutch bridges across the Maas and Meuse in May 1940.


and you don't think they are already mined


----------



## Bluebulldog

Altair said:


> On an unrelated note, does anyone know any map making companies, I have a feeling a lot of new ones will need to be printed off.



They'll just take all the stock left in Germany and other NATO countries in 1991, and mark them up with a Sharpie......


----------



## Czech_pivo

YZT580 said:


> and you don't think they are already mined


I'm certain everyone is mined.  I'm pretty certain the Dutch had theirs's mined as well.

I remember a story a German friend told me of what it was like when he was conscripted into the German Engineers back in the very early 90s. He told me that virtually every single bridge in West Germany had placements built for them to mined and blown quickly.  I've sure the Ukkie's have done the same.


----------



## The Bread Guy

For the record ....


> *Readout of a telephone call between the defence ministers of Canada and Ukraine*​*From: National Defence*
> News release​January 19, 2022 – Ottawa, Ont. – National Defence / Canadian Armed Forces
> 
> Defence Minister Anita Anand spoke this week with Ukrainian Minister of Defence Oleksii Reznikov via videoconference.
> 
> Minister Reznikov thanked Minister Anand for the assistance Canada has provided to his country, in particular the training provided by the Canadian Armed Forces to Ukrainian security forces. Minister Anand emphasized the longstanding ties between the two nations, and reaffirmed Canada’s steadfast commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
> 
> The ministers discussed extensively their concerns with Russia’s ongoing aggressive and destabilizing actions in and around Ukraine. Both ministers condemned Russia’s actions, and underscored the need for Russia to de-escalate the situation and live up to its international commitments on transparency of military activities.
> 
> Minister Anand noted she has been engaged with her NATO counterparts, as well as with other partner nations, regarding the need for the international community to send a clear message to Russia that any further military incursion in Ukraine would have severe consequences and costs.
> 
> The ministers agreed to speak again in the near future. Minister Reznikov also extended an invitation for Minister Anand to visit him in Ukraine. Minister Anand indicated her significant interest in such a visit once their respective schedules permit.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Has anyone else in NATO, besides the US, UK and Turkey supplied arms to the Ukrainians? I’m aware of what Canada has supplied in terms of boots, etc.


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> For the record ....


_“The ministers agreed to speak again in the near future. Minister Reznikov also extended an invitation for Minister Anand to visit him in Ukraine. Minister Anand indicated her significant interest in such a visit once their respective schedules permit.”_

I’ve got a feeling this guys schedule will be wide open a few days after 4 Feb….look to see him shopping somewhere in the Bloor and Runnymede area of Toronto.


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> Has anyone else in NATO, besides the US, UK and Turkey supplied arms to the Ukrainians? I’m aware of what Canada has supplied in terms of boots, etc.


There was a Canadian company supplying sniper rifles, but not major government level effort. I believe Georgia has been helping them as well trying to upgrade equipment.


----------



## Czech_pivo

I see that the RAF is still ferrying in more anti-tank missiles.









						RRR6804 UK Royal Air Force Transport Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware
					

Track UK Royal Air Force Transport  #6804 flight from RAF Brize Norton to Kyiv Boryspil Int'l




					flightaware.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

Czech_pivo said:


> I see that the RAF is still ferrying in more anti-tank missiles.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> RRR6804 UK Royal Air Force Transport Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware
> 
> 
> Track UK Royal Air Force Transport  #6804 flight from RAF Brize Norton to Kyiv Boryspil Int'l
> 
> 
> 
> 
> flightaware.com


I guess this is some sort of pay back for all those FSB agents over the years operating in the UK and the poisonings.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Check out the historical flight plan of this helo!  Up, down, up, down, up, down, trying its best to stay off of someones radar.









						UR-HLE Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware
					

Track UR-HLE flight from Kajjansi Airfield to Kajjansi, Uganda




					flightaware.com


----------



## Spencer100

There is a lot of looking and listening going on by western airforces









						Massive intelligence gathering effort underway over Europe
					

Ten surveillance aircraft from multiple Western nations, including Britain, conducted intelligence-gathering missions over the Baltics and Ukraine today.




					ukdefencejournal.org.uk


----------



## Czech_pivo

Spencer100 said:


> There is a lot of looking and listening going on by western airforces
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Massive intelligence gathering effort underway over Europe
> 
> 
> Ten surveillance aircraft from multiple Western nations, including Britain, conducted intelligence-gathering missions over the Baltics and Ukraine today.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ukdefencejournal.org.uk


One interesting thing that I noticed in his maps of the flight overlays is that the Russian Army in Transnistria is not being considered. Either they are too small (at 1,500 men) to be of concern and/or they have no air defences to be worried about.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some are happy to help - as long as Team USA says yes ....


> At least three European allies are waiting for the U.S. State Department to approve their requests to send U.S.-made weapons to Ukraine, as fears grow of a multi-front invasion by Russian forces and the Biden administration prepares to ship a new batch of weapons to Kyiv.
> 
> Baltic NATO allies *Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia* are looking to transfer American-made lethal weapons such as anti-armor and ground-to-air missiles to Ukraine, according to officials from those countries and people familiar with the discussions. But U.S. export control regulations require these countries to obtain approval from the State Department before passing along the weapons ...


Meanwhile, France:  let us give it a try ...


> French President Emmanuel Macron called Wednesday on the European Union to quickly draw up a new security plan containing proposals to help ease tensions with Russia, as concern mounts that Russian President Vladimir Putin is planning an invasion of Ukraine.
> 
> The EU must in coming weeks “complete a European proposal building a new security and stability order,” Macron said. “We should build it among Europeans, then share it with our allies in the framework of NATO, and then propose it for negotiation to Russia.”
> 
> Macron’s remarks to EU lawmakers in Strasbourg, France, came the day after NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the military organization was in the process of finalizing its own security proposals ...


----------



## brihard

YZT580 said:


> and you don't think they are already mined


I don’t think the Russians would want the bridges so as to allow themselves to cross the Dnieper going west, but rather seize or destroy them to prevent the Ukrainians and any allies from reinforcing across the river headed east. Those bridges are strategic key terrain. I suspect Putin’s eyes are not cast farther west than the river, at least at this time. Bite, hold, consolidate. I could also see the river being a red line for foreign intervention.

As for Canada’s response: I think we can dispense with any notion that we’re at the big boys table here. Any response will be for domestic consumption first, and to show our allies we’re still here second. But we are not strategically relevant. We made that choice years ago.

If Russia has air superiority, Ukraine is in an extremely bad way. Conversely, if allies step in and Russia loses air superiority, different game. Air parity is still bad for Ukraine- but if the USAF and RAF decided to flex their technological edge, that could make for a very interesting and different campaign. Could Western air power meaningfully attrit Russian artillery? Could they at least make massed mechanized movement unviable?

If the west decides to move by air, what would that look like? Which countries would allow basing? I imagine a lot of aerial tanker movement, AWACS, and heavy lift carrying parts and munitions… But munitions by air are inefficient. Is there any indication of aerial munitions being moved to the theatre in bulk?

The public OSINT on this is fascinating to watch. Russian soldiers definitely seem to think they’re going in- and a friggin’ TON of kit is moving that only makes sense if Putin intends to at least credibly look like he is about to invade…


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Some are happy to help - as long as Team USA says yes ....
> 
> Meanwhile, France:  let us give it a try ...


I guess this snippet is being ignored.

_"According to agreements between Russia and NATO, exercises involving more than 9,000 troops require 42 days' notice, and if the drill includes more than 13,000 troops, international observers are required. Russia has given no notifications thus far.

“That's what normal looks like,” the State Department official said. “What this is, is something entirely different.”_


----------



## Czech_pivo

Turns out HMCS Montreal left today for the Black Sea posting.  Position this ship and the French FS Auvergne between Odessa and Mariupol, along with the ships from the US 6th Fleet and see what comes our way. 









						Trudeau promises to support Ukraine as Canadian warship departs for Black Sea
					

A Canadian warship departed for Europe and the Black Sea near Russia on Wednesday, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau admitted to fears of a Russian invasion in Ukraine.




					www.cp24.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

brihard said:


> I don’t think the Russians would want the bridges so as to allow themselves to cross the Dnieper going west, but rather seize or destroy them to prevent the Ukrainians and any allies from reinforcing across the river headed east. Those bridges are strategic key terrain. I suspect Putin’s eyes are not cast farther west than the river, at least at this time. Bite, hold, consolidate. I could also see the river being a red line for foreign intervention.
> 
> As for Canada’s response: I think we can dispense with any notion that we’re at the big boys table here. Any response will be for domestic consumption first, and to show our allies we’re still here second. But we are not strategically relevant. We made that choice years ago.
> 
> If Russia has air superiority, Ukraine is in an extremely bad way. Conversely, if allies step in and Russia loses air superiority, different game. Air parity is still bad for Ukraine- but if the USAF and RAF decided to flex their technological edge, that could make for a very interesting and different campaign. Could Western air power meaningfully attrit Russian artillery? Could they at least make massed mechanized movement unviable?
> 
> If the west decides to move by air, what would that look like? Which countries would allow basing? I imagine a lot of aerial tanker movement, AWACS, and heavy lift carrying parts and munitions… But munitions by air are inefficient. Is there any indication of aerial munitions being moved to the theatre in bulk?
> 
> The public OSINT on this is fascinating to watch. Russian soldiers definitely seem to think they’re going in- and a friggin’ TON of kit is moving that only makes sense if Putin intends to at least credibly look like he is about to invade…


----------



## Kilted

Czech_pivo said:


> _“The ministers agreed to speak again in the near future. Minister Reznikov also extended an invitation for Minister Anand to visit him in Ukraine. Minister Anand indicated her significant interest in such a visit once their respective schedules permit.”_
> 
> I’ve got a feeling this guys schedule will be wide open a few days after 4 Feb….look to see him shopping somewhere in the Bloor and Runnymede area of Toronto.


Feb 4th?


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> Turns out HMCS Montreal left today for the Black Sea posting.  Position this ship and the French FS Auvergne between Odessa and Mariupol, along with the ships from the US 6th Fleet and see what comes our way.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Trudeau promises to support Ukraine as Canadian warship departs for Black Sea
> 
> 
> A Canadian warship departed for Europe and the Black Sea near Russia on Wednesday, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau admitted to fears of a Russian invasion in Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cp24.com


I mean putting NATO vessels on Ukraine coast and doing joint drills may delay Plans a bit for the amphibious invasion of Odessa


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kilted said:


> Feb 4th?


Winter Olympics start date.  Some on here are of the belief that if something kicks off it will be during the Winter Olympics.


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> I mean putting NATO vessels on Ukraine coast and doing joint drills may delay Plans a bit for the amphibious invasion of Odessa


That is my thoughts exactly.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Recycling... it's a thing in the defence industry 


*The Ukrainian Armed Forces expects to receive new helicopters, including five Mi-17V5s and one Mi-8MTV, as part of U.S. military aid.*

The U.S. reportedly will provide Ukraine with six helicopters that previously belonged to the Afghan Air Force. The first batch of helicopters is expected to arrive in Ukraine this spring.

Reports from outlets in Afghanistan had suggested that about two dozen Mi-8/17 type helicopters of the Afghan Air Force are now outside the country and their fate remains unknown.

According to Scramble Magazine, these helicopters have undoubtedly been used during the fled of Afghan government leaders and military personnel to neighboring countries as Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

As CNN previously reported, the Biden administration is weighing sending military advisers and new equipment to Ukraine as Russia builds up forces near the border.

Citing multiple sources familiar with the plans, CNN reported that the Defense Department has been pressing for some equipment that would have gone to Afghanistan, like Mi-17 helicopters, to instead be sent to Ukraine.









						Ukrainian army to receive ex-Afghan helicopters
					

The Ukrainian Armed Forces expects to receive new helicopters, including five Mi-17V5s and one Mi-8MTV, as part of U.S. military aid. The U.S. reportedly will provide Ukraine with six helicopters that previously belonged to the Afghan Air Force. The first batch of helicopters is expected to...




					defence-blog.com


----------



## Jarnhamar

The US can always offer the Taliban some cash to ship some of the helicopters and equipment in their possession over to the Ukraine.


----------



## MilEME09

Jarnhamar said:


> The US can always offer the Taliban some cash to ship some of the helicopters and equipment in their possession over to the Ukraine.


US also has a bunch of tanks, and arty that the marines just stopped using, could send those Ukraines way.


----------



## Kilted

Czech_pivo said:


> Winter Olympics start date.  Some on here are of the belief that if something kicks off it will be during the Winter Olympics.


Well, they aren't hosting them this time around, so I guess they don't have to wait for the end.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Czech_pivo said:


> Turns out HMCS Montreal left today for the Black Sea posting.  Position this ship and the French FS Auvergne between Odessa and Mariupol, along with the ships from the US 6th Fleet and see what comes our way.
> 
> https://www.cp24.com/news/trudeau-p...ian-warship-departs-for-black-sea-1.5746458[/




Montreal is just going where the Feddy was until last month, and TOR was before that…etc.

So this isn’t a deployment in response to XYZ, it’s just normal rotation stuff.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> There was a Canadian company supplying sniper rifles, but not major government level effort. I believe Georgia has been helping them as well trying to upgrade equipment.


Bit of CAN government involvement in building an ammo plant in UKR, too (archived version here in case link doesn't work) - more here .


----------



## suffolkowner

A little late in the game to be talking about supplying weaponry when all along its been lets not doing anything to escalate things. Read an older article in the National Post the other day when the Ukrainians were begging for supplies including Eryx but I guess it was decided to just scrap them(?). I'm sure the Ukrainians could use more Manpads and anti-tank missiles but they need a big boost in higher end air defence to make the Russians think twice and probably 100 new F-16's


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> A little late in the game to be talking about supplying weaponry when all along its been lets not doing anything to escalate things. Read an older article in the National Post the other day when the Ukrainians were begging for supplies including Eryx but I guess it was decided to just scrap them(?). I'm sure the Ukrainians could use more Manpads and anti-tank missiles but they need a big boost in higher end air defence to make the Russians think twice and probably 100 new F-16's


Our government dragged its heals, they didn't say yes or no, like a lot if other things.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Have a listen to the click on CNN - Biden comes out and says a ‘little incursion’ into Ukraine might be ok. 









						Biden predicts Russia 'will move in' to Ukraine, but says 'minor incursion' may prompt discussion over consequences
					

President Joe Biden on Wednesday predicted Russia "will move in" to Ukraine, citing existential concerns by the country's president, Vladimir Putin, even as he acknowledged disunity within NATO over how to respond to a "minor incursion."




					amp.cnn.com


----------



## brihard

If that's being reported accurately, that's either a deliberate and calculated abandonment of Ukraine- or it was a dumb misspeak. I suspect the latter, and that we'll see clarification tomorrow, along the lines of 'response will be proportionate and commensurate to the level of Russian aggression' or something.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

brihard said:


> As for Canada’s response: I think we can dispense with any notion that we’re at the big boys table here. Any response will be for domestic consumption first, and to show our allies we’re still here second. But we are not strategically relevant. We made that choice years ago.


Very true, especially when it comes to weapons. Besides some small arms, the only weapon system that I could think of Canada providing is the CRV-7 rocket system.


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> Our government dragged its heals, they didn't say yes or no, like a lot if other things.


Basically it comes down to this - having the largest Ukrainian population outside of Ukraine/Russia means absolutely nothing here in Canada.
Trudeau and company did nothing like usual. It’s pitiful to watch them in action.


brihard said:


> If that's being reported accurately, that's either a deliberate and calculated abandonment of Ukraine- or it was a dumb misspeak. I suspect the latter, and that we'll see clarification tomorrow, along the lines of 'response will be proportionate and commensurate to the level of Russian aggression' or something.


I watched NBC Nightly News out of Boston and I heard Biden clearly say those words. I banged on the table when I heard it as I knew that it was Munich all over again.


----------



## Czech_pivo

brihard said:


> If that's being reported accurately, that's either a deliberate and calculated abandonment of Ukraine- or it was a dumb misspeak. I suspect the latter, and that we'll see clarification tomorrow, along the lines of 'response will be proportionate and commensurate to the level of Russian aggression' or something.


Listen to this clip.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1483961429292204034


----------



## Spencer100

Czech_pivo said:


> Listen to this clip.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1483961429292204034


Between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, and you will have war.


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> Listen to this clip.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1483961429292204034


hanging Ukraine out to dry, it is sickening to say the least if this is what our western governments think is okay.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Retired AF Guy said:


> Very true, especially when it comes to weapons. Besides some small arms, the only weapon system that I could think of Canada providing is the CRV-7 rocket system.


We could send some Honda CRV’s from Alliston to go with those CRV-7’s.


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> hanging Ukraine out to dry, it is sickening to say the least if this is what our western governments think is okay.


I don’t think it’s a matter of it being “ok”, but rather a calculation of interests.

Might be the strategic intent is _not_ to risk a major loss of combat power in direct confrontation, and instead to sap Russian strength by feeding one hell of an insurgency. The US has done that before.


----------



## MilEME09

brihard said:


> I don’t think it’s a matter of it being “ok”, but rather a calculation of interests.
> 
> Might be the strategic intent is _not_ to risk a major loss of combat power in direct confrontation, and instead to sap Russian strength by feeding one hell of an insurgency. The US has done that before.


Russia's history of not leaving it's occupied territories says other wise, look at Chechnya, and Dagistan, they never left, Georgia, still there, Ukraine still there since 2014. Will there be a force left in ukraine to run an insurgency?

On the political side, the Former president has returned to Ukraine to face charges, who want's to bet he made a deal to be put back in power after a Russian invasion?


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> Russia's history of not leaving it's occupied territories says other wise, look at Chechnya, and Dagistan, they never left, Georgia, still there, Ukraine still there since 2014. Will there be a force left in ukraine to run an insurgency?
> 
> On the political side, the Former president has returned to Ukraine to face charges, who want's to be he made a deal to be put back in power after a Russian invasion?


The timing of it is quite amazing.


----------



## Good2Golf

brihard said:


> Might be the strategic intent is _not_ to risk a major loss of combat power in direct confrontation, and instead to sap Russian strength by feeding one hell of an insurgency. The US has done that before.


…before getting caught in it, itself. 😉


----------



## Altair

brihard said:


> I don’t think the Russians would want the bridges so as to allow themselves to cross the Dnieper going west, but rather seize or destroy them to prevent the Ukrainians and any allies from reinforcing across the river headed east. Those bridges are strategic key terrain. I suspect Putin’s eyes are not cast farther west than the river, at least at this time. Bite, hold, consolidate. I could also see the river being a red line for foreign intervention.


Depends on the situation. If they break Ukraine in the east and they have nothing credible left in the west to stop them, why stop?

As for red lines, what will the west do if they cross the Dnieper that they wouldn't do if Russia invades in a few weeks?  

War?

More sanctions?

 What?


brihard said:


> As for Canada’s response: I think we can dispense with any notion that we’re at the big boys table here. Any response will be for domestic consumption first, and to show our allies we’re still here second. But we are not strategically relevant. We made that choice years ago.


Yup.


brihard said:


> If Russia has air superiority, Ukraine is in an extremely bad way. Conversely, if allies step in and Russia loses air superiority, different game. Air parity is still bad for Ukraine- but if the USAF and RAF decided to flex their technological edge, that could make for a very interesting and different campaign. Could Western air power meaningfully attrit Russian artillery? Could they at least make massed mechanized movement unviable?


And what are the chances that the USAF and RAF step in to help Ukraine? If these options were on the table, why would it not be used the second Russia invades?


brihard said:


> If the west decides to move by air, what would that look like? Which countries would allow basing? I imagine a lot of aerial tanker movement, AWACS, and heavy lift carrying parts and munitions… But munitions by air are inefficient. Is there any indication of aerial munitions being moved to the theatre in bulk?
> 
> The public OSINT on this is fascinating to watch. Russian soldiers definitely seem to think they’re going in- and a friggin’ TON of kit is moving that only makes sense if Putin intends to at least credibly look like he is about to invade…


I don't think this is a bluff.


----------



## MilEME09

Altair said:


> I don't think this is a bluff.



I agree, it is not a question of if Russia will invade, but when, and Joe Bidens comments are either bait or a sign that no discussions about ukraine without ukraine was a lie.


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> I agree, it is not a question of if Russia will invade, but when, and Joe Bidens comments are either bait or a sign that no discussions about ukraine without ukraine was a lie.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> ... Will there be a force left in ukraine to run an insurgency? ...


If I had to bet a loonie, my guess is that there's enough white-hot hate of Soviet Union 1.0 still there to crank up a fair bit of insurgency in Ukraine to avoid joining Soviet Union 2.0.

Meanwhile, *"U.S. clears Baltic states to send U.S.-made weapons to Ukraine"*


----------



## The Bread Guy

Interesting ....

*“Russia is one step closer to recognizing the (rebel) People’s Liberation Army, and regular troops can enter Donbass” *(USA govt-funded media in Ukrainian - Google English translation - archive link to RUS state media Telegram post with documents)

Declaration/request (in Russian) attached

 🍿


----------



## Czech_pivo

LOL, I'm certain Putin would love another direct call with Biden to talk about Ukraine, he'd love to get Biden taped on a call saying that a small incursion by Russia into the Ukraine would be ok. 









						Russia says it would welcome another presidential call with Biden over Ukraine | CNN
					

Russia would welcome another conversation between President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Joe Biden, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a call with journalists on Thursday.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Good2Golf

The Bread Guy said:


> Interesting ....
> 
> *“Russia is one step closer to recognizing the (rebel) People’s Liberation Army, and regular troops can enter Donbass” *(USA govt-funded media in Ukrainian - Google English translation - archive link to RUS state media Telegram post with documents)
> 
> Declaration/request (in Russian) attached
> 
> 🍿


Apparently they just have to shoot down another civilian airliner to gain admission…


----------



## Czech_pivo

This big Antonov's flight originated from Montreal this morning, destination is Kiev.  Gotta wonder what's in it.









						ADB307F Antonov Design Bureau Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware
					

Track Antonov Design Bureau  #307F flight from Hamad Int'l to Al Maktoum Int'l




					flightaware.com


----------



## SeaKingTacco

Czech_pivo said:


> This big Antonov's flight originated from Montreal this morning, destination is Kiev.  Gotta wonder what's in it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ADB307F Antonov Design Bureau Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware
> 
> 
> Track Antonov Design Bureau  #307F flight from Hamad Int'l to Al Maktoum Int'l
> 
> 
> 
> 
> flightaware.com


 Cold wet weather boots?

82 pattern rucksacks?


----------



## Good2Golf

15 Tri-walls of “IMP - Dinner #7 (Poutine)”


----------



## SeaKingTacco

Good2Golf said:


> 15 Tri-walls of “IMP - Dinner #7 (Poutine)”


Nice! Let’s get that out onto a tray…

(obscure reference for those who spend too much time on Youtube….)


----------



## daftandbarmy

Good2Golf said:


> 15 Tri-walls of “IMP - Dinner #7 (Poutine)”



Probably hair products. They've helped keep the PM out of trouble


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Czech_pivo said:


> This big Antonov's flight originated from Montreal this morning, destination is Kiev.  Gotta wonder what's in it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ADB307F Antonov Design Bureau Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware
> 
> 
> Track Antonov Design Bureau  #307F flight from Hamad Int'l to Al Maktoum Int'l
> 
> 
> 
> 
> flightaware.com



Do we still have those Lee Enfields we pulled back from the Rangers?


----------



## brihard

Altair said:


> As goes Germany, as goes Europe.
> 
> I don't know everything about SWIFT, is it a US run system?  Can the USA block Russia and Europe continues with business as usual?
> 
> Regardless, if this is the case we are seeing a huge public split on the response to Russia.


I meant to answer this earlier, sorry for the delay.

SWIFT is a messaging service. It lets bank A order a transfer of funds to bank B. It’s not the only such service, but it’s the biggest one.

With that said, the challenge there is that the US doesn’t truly control it, and also it can be worked around.  Othing stops Russia establishing its own service or using another existing one, though getting foreign banks to buy in would take work.

The real leverage the US has is the ability to sanction US dollar transactions. The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control is able to designate entities and even whole countries for sanctions regimes. Here’s where that matters:

Let’s say you’re the Sovereign People’s Republic of Fantasia. You produce a lot of coal but you need a lot of oil. You have a trading relationship with West Isle, who happen to produce quite a bit of oil.

Fantasia has the Fantasia People’s Bank, who deal with the Bank of West Isle. Thing is, major commodities aren’t traded in Fantasia Ruble or West Isle Dinars- they’re generally traded in US Dolllars for predictability, stability, and consistency. Neither the Fantasia People’s Bank nor the Bank of West Isle directly hold large US dollar holdings for trade. US law requires that US dollar banking happen through US banks. So, foreign banks will have a correspondent banking relationship with a US bank. They will hold an account (or accounts) at that bank, through which USD funds happen.

Say Fantasia buys $20m USD of oil from West Isle. The Fantasian People's Bank doesn't have the ability to directly send $USD to the Bank of West ISle. Istead, Fantasia People's Bank sends a message to their correspondent bank, JP Morgan Chase. They direct JP Morgan to send $20m USD to West Isle's correspondent bank account at Wells Fargo. The money is went, Wells Fargo test Bank of West Isle that they're now $20m USD richer, and boom, the oil is shipped. I'm simplifying, but this is the essence of it. Fantasia gives West Isle $20m USD, but those USD never actually leave the US banking sytem.

What the US can do is to block individuals, corporations, or whole countries from access to this correspondent banking, through sanctions regulations under various legislation. Say Fantasia commits hostilities against a neighbour and the US gives a shit, US can direct that no US bank will deal with Fantasian banks, in the extreme case, or maybe with any accounts linked to certain Fantasian political figures. This has the effect of cutting off their legitimate access to a lot of international trade that's $USD denominated. North Korea, for example, is almost completely cut off in such a fashion. Doesn't mean they aren't able to engage in some trade, but normally there are layers of money laundering needed to pull it off. That makes it more expensive for them, and every now and then, their camouflaged activities in US banks will be detected and assets frozen. The US can also seek civil forfeiture of identified assets.

So, what the US could do would be selectively or broadly cut off Russian access to $USD correspondent banking. This would be devastating in the short term... But would also screw allies who buy necessary commodities form or sell them to Russia. Narrower, more targeted sanctions would be more likely. Rather than cutting off German imports of Russian gas through wholesale excision of Russia from $USD banking, they could go after individuals in the Putin regime, and businesses near and dear to them. Make it hurt for the political leadership.

Obviously the risk is that if the US overplays its hand, Russia, probably with China, moves to start commodity trade relationships in another currency. While there are major barriers to this, the juice could end up being worth the squeeze. I could see Russia trading commodities with Europe in Euro. Yen could be another sufficiently capitalized and stable currency for commodities trading. I'm sure China would love to push the Yuan for such a purpose. So the US needs to be careful that it doesn't play into China's long term hand.

There are layers and layers and layers to sanctions matters when you're dealing with a major foreign power with a lot of bilateral trade relationships. Sanctions can be extremely surgical, or extremely blunt. Blunt may work for the DPRK... Probably not so much for Russia, other than _maybe_ as a short, sharp shock.


----------



## Czech_pivo

brihard said:


> I meant to answer this earlier, sorry for the delay.
> 
> SWIFT is a messaging service. It lets bank A order a transfer of funds to bank B. It’s not the only such service, but it’s the biggest one.
> 
> With that said, the challenge there is that the US doesn’t truly control it, and also it can be worked around.  Othing stops Russia establishing its own service or using another existing one, though getting foreign banks to buy in would take work.
> 
> The real leverage the US has is the ability to sanction US dollar transactions. The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control is able to designate entities and even whole countries for sanctions regimes. Here’s where that matters:
> 
> Let’s say you’re the Sovereign People’s Republic of Fantasia. You produce a lot of coal but you need a lot of oil. You have a trading relationship with West Isle, who happen to produce quite a bit of oil.
> 
> Fantasia has the Fantasia People’s Bank, who deal with the Bank of West Isle. Thing is, major commodities aren’t traded in Fantasia Ruble or West Isle Dinars- they’re generally traded in US Dolllars for predictability, stability, and consistency. Neither the Fantasia People’s Bank nor the Bank of West Isle directly hold large US dollar holdings for trade. US law requires that US dollar banking happen through US banks. So, foreign banks will have a correspondent banking relationship with a US bank. They will hold an account (or accounts) at that bank, through which USD funds happen.
> 
> Say Fantasia buys $20m USD of oil from West Isle. The Fantasian People's Bank doesn't have the ability to directly send $USD to the Bank of West ISle. Istead, Fantasia People's Bank sends a message to their correspondent bank, JP Morgan Chase. They direct JP Morgan to send $20m USD to West Isle's correspondent bank account at Wells Fargo. The money is went, Wells Fargo test Bank of West Isle that they're now $20m USD richer, and boom, the oil is shipped. I'm simplifying, but this is the essence of it. Fantasia gives West Isle $20m USD, but those USD never actually leave the US banking sytem.
> 
> What the US can do is to block individuals, corporations, or whole countries from access to this correspondent banking, through sanctions regulations under various legislation. Say Fantasia commits hostilities against a neighbour and the US gives a shit, US can direct that no US bank will deal with Fantasian banks, in the extreme case, or maybe with any accounts linked to certain Fantasian political figures. This has the effect of cutting off their legitimate access to a lot of international trade that's $USD denominated. North Korea, for example, is almost completely cut off in such a fashion. Doesn't mean they aren't able to engage in some trade, but normally there are layers of money laundering needed to pull it off. That makes it more expensive for them, and every now and then, their camouflaged activities in US banks will be detected and assets frozen. The US can also seek civil forfeiture of identified assets.
> 
> So, what the US could do would be selectively or broadly cut off Russian access to $USD correspondent banking. This would be devastating in the short term... But would also screw allies who buy necessary commodities form or sell them to Russia. Narrower, more targeted sanctions would be more likely. Rather than cutting off German imports of Russian gas through wholesale excision of Russia from $USD banking, they could go after individuals in the Putin regime, and businesses near and dear to them. Make it hurt for the political leadership.
> 
> Obviously the risk is that if the US overplays its hand, Russia, probably with China, moves to start commodity trade relationships in another currency. While there are major barriers to this, the juice could end up being worth the squeeze. I could see Russia trading commodities with Europe in Euro. Yen could be another sufficiently capitalized and stable currency for commodities trading. I'm sure China would love to push the Yuan for such a purpose. So the US needs to be careful that it doesn't play into China's long term hand.
> 
> There are layers and layers and layers to sanctions matters when you're dealing with a major foreign power with a lot of bilateral trade relationships. Sanctions can be extremely surgical, or extremely blunt. Blunt may work for the DPRK... Probably not so much for Russia, other than _maybe_ as a short, sharp shock.


 
If the US orders all US banks and extends that to include all world-wide banks that deal with US banks, to stop processing payments in USD to any Russian entity, then Russia is effectively shut out of the world wide banking system.

This is what they've done to Iran.  There are ways around it, but its extremely difficult and time consuming.

A number of years back the US implemented something called FATCA and basically forced all governments (banks) that deal with US banks to enforce this US led tax imitative.  We here in Canada were forced to do so, but only after an 'agreement' came into place that all US banks had to identify and report to the CRA all known Canadians who had bank/investments accounts in the US, just like all CDN banks were forced to report all known Americans living in Canada (outside Canada but had bank accounts or investment accounts here) to the IRA.  Each year all CDN banks/investment firms (and yes, it include Mutual Fund companies and things like RESP and TFSA)  send their lists of 'US Persons' to the CRA who in turn turn it all over to the IRS. This includes any/all dual Citizenships or anyone who was born in the US here in Canada - in essence about 1 million CDN's a year.

Back to SWIFT, if the US goes down this path it can/will cripple the Russian economy.   All that nat gas that goes to Europe, guess what, the Russians won't get paid for it, the Euro's freeze and the gas gets turned off.


----------



## The Bread Guy

SeaKingTacco said:


> Nice! Let’s get that out onto a tray…
> 
> (obscure reference for those who spend too much time on Youtube….)


#BobRossOfMREReviewers


----------



## Czech_pivo

RAF heading home after dropping off another load.  These guys are sending alot over the last week.









						RRR7206 UK Royal Air Force Transport Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware
					

Track UK Royal Air Force Transport  #7206 flight from RAF Waddington to RAF Waddington




					flightaware.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Interesting tidbit from a fact-checking service working in the same offices as US-government funded Voice of America ....


> During a visit to Kyiv, where Ukrainian leaders worry about a possible full-scale Russian invasion, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock echoed German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s position on Ukraine’s requests to buy arms.
> 
> “Our restrictive position to weapons supply is well-known and is rooted in history,” she said.
> 
> (...)
> 
> But that’s misleading.
> 
> Baerbock may represent the new ruling coalition that opposes arms sales to countries outside the EU and NATO, but as it stands Germany is ranked the fourth-largest global arms exporter, and the recipients of these arms are not limited to NATO allies or democratic governments ...


Would it be ... indelicate to remind Germany about how ... non-restrictive weapons supply policy re:  Ukraine was during WW2?   😉

A bit more nuance from Germany's public broadcaster ...


> ... Both the United States and the United Kingdom have announced arms deliveries, mostly handguns, ammunition and anti-tank weapons. A group of US senators visiting Ukraine earlier this week promised more weapons would be on the way.
> 
> German government officials have expressed concern that such deliveries could push tensions higher and make negotiations more difficult.
> 
> In their coalition agreement, the center-left SPD, the Greens and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) agreed on a restrictive arms export policy that does not allow any weapons deliveries to crisis regions.
> 
> Baerbock said her government's decision on weapons had a historical dimension — a reference to Germany's invasion of the Soviet Union during the Second World War.
> 
> "The idea that Germany delivers weapons that could then be used to kill Russians is very difficult to stomach for many Germans," Marcel Dirsus, a nonresident fellow at the Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University (ISPK), told DW ....


Interesting take on the WW2 history angle from Ukraine from this piece ...


> ... Ukraine is also a buyer. In 2020 and through the first half of 2021, Germany approved 97 exports totaling 5.2 million euros ($5.8 million), according to government reporting. These were mostly sidearms, diving equipment, and communications devices.
> 
> Ukrainian officials want to go bigger, most recently asking for warships and air defense systems. While Germany often cites its own belligerent history as grounds for sidestepping the military question, Ukraine is leaning into it.
> 
> "This responsibility should apply to the Ukrainian people, who lost at least 8 million lives during the Nazi occupation of Ukraine," Ukraine's ambassador to Germany, Andrij Melnyk, told the DPA news agency ...


----------



## brihard

Czech_pivo said:


> If the US orders all US banks and extends that to include all world-wide banks that deal with US banks, to stop processing payments in USD to any Russian entity, then Russia is effectively shut out of the world wide banking system.
> 
> This is what they've done to Iran.  There are ways around it, but its extremely difficult and time consuming.
> 
> A number of years back the US implemented something called FATCA and basically forced all governments (banks) that deal with US banks to enforce this US led tax imitative.  We here in Canada were forced to do so, but only after an 'agreement' came into place that all US banks had to identify and report to the CRA all known Canadians who had bank/investments accounts in the US, just like all CDN banks were forced to report all known Americans living in Canada (outside Canada but had bank accounts or investment accounts here) to the IRA.  Each year all CDN banks/investment firms (and yes, it include Mutual Fund companies and things like RESP and TFSA)  send their lists of 'US Persons' to the CRA who in turn turn it all over to the IRS. This includes any/all dual Citizenships or anyone who was born in the US here in Canada - in essence about 1 million CDN's a year.
> 
> Back to SWIFT, if the US goes down this path it can/will cripple the Russian economy.   All that nat gas that goes to Europe, guess what, the Russians won't get paid for it, the Euro's freeze and the gas gets turned off.


Before you get excited you need to reread the last three paras of my post, carefully. The US only retains this power as long as it’s in everyone else’s interest to go along with it. A trade bloc denominating commodities trading in a currency other than $USDis probably inevitable, but it’s not in America’s interest to speed that up.


----------



## YZT580

brihard said:


> Before you get excited you need to reread the last three paras of my post, carefully. The US only retains this power as long as it’s in everyone else’s interest to go along with it. A trade bloc denominating commodities trading in a currency other than $USDis probably inevitable, but it’s not in America’s interest to speed that up.


many thanks for the explanation


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Czech_pivo said:


> RAF heading home after dropping off another load.  These guys are sending alot over the last week.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> RRR7206 UK Royal Air Force Transport Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware
> 
> 
> Track UK Royal Air Force Transport  #7206 flight from RAF Waddington to RAF Waddington
> 
> 
> 
> 
> flightaware.com


Except they are likely stripping their own cupboard bare to do it.


----------



## Kirkhill

Czech_pivo said:


> RAF heading home after dropping off another load.  These guys are sending alot over the last week.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> RRR7206 UK Royal Air Force Transport Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware
> 
> 
> Track UK Royal Air Force Transport  #7206 flight from RAF Waddington to RAF Waddington
> 
> 
> 
> 
> flightaware.com



That flight path is interesting for a cargo flight.  They seemed to spend a lot of time "dragging their petticoats" just off Russian held territory on the Black Sea.  

The same kind of  path the Type 45s  followed when the QE was in the Med.

HIt me if your dare?


----------



## Kirkhill

Colin Parkinson said:


> Except they are likely stripping their own cupboard bare to do it.



NLAW / MBT LAW is manufactured in Britain by Thales UK.

It was taken into service in 2009.  It is a wooden round with a 20 year shelf life.  The first rounds manufactured would be 12 years old now.  They are ripe for divestment in any event.

And now would be a good time to refresh the inventory with Foreign Aid money.


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> NLAW / MBT LAW is manufactured in Britain by Thales UK.
> 
> It was taken into service in 2009.  It is a wooden round with a 20 year shelf life.  The first rounds manufactured would be 12 years old now.  They are ripe for divestment in any event.
> 
> And now would be a good time to refresh the inventory with Foreign Aid money.


Exactly, drop the old inventory to Ukraine, refresh your own. Wouldn't be surprised if we did the same with M72s.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

I also would not be surprised if Putin plays this game several times, gauging reactions and waiting for the time that there is only limited reaction to act.


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> Exactly, drop the old inventory to Ukraine, refresh your own. Wouldn't be surprised if we did the same with M72s.



For the record - the UK also manufactures the following missiles.

Brimstone
SPEAR
Sea SPEAR

Starstreak
Martlet









						Brimstone (missile) - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				











						Starstreak - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				











						Martlet (missile) - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




Some of them have variants that need a workout on a two-way range.  Good for the engineering and the marketing departments.


----------



## Kirkhill

Colin Parkinson said:


> I also would not be surprised if Putin plays this game several times, gauging reactions and waiting for the time that there is only limited reaction to act.



I think you wouldn't be wrong if you said it was his standard of play just now.

He fences in the West.  While China builds in the East.









						Fencing Fence GIF - Fencing Fence Olympic - Discover & Share GIFs
					

Click to view the GIF




					tenor.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

brihard said:


> Before you get excited you need to reread the last three paras of my post, carefully. The US only retains this power as long as it’s in everyone else’s interest to go along with it. A trade bloc denominating commodities trading in a currency other than $USDis probably inevitable, but it’s not in America’s interest to speed that up.


Good luck to the Chinese (or Russians) in convincing the rest of the world to start a new trading currency for commodities.  They routinely manipulate their currency, resulting in their currency being vastly undervalued against the USD. This is done to ensure that their products/manufacturing are continuously priced low.  China has no floating exchange rate.  
The IMF and World Bank are still dominated by the Euros and the Americans, until the link is broken and broken consistently, China (and Russia) will have little luck in moving forward with any of their goals. 
If you think that the developed countries of the world would be willing to 'leave' the USD and move over to trading in currency of a Communist country, good luck.
No one knows what the future may bring in 10, 25, 50 years.  But a world dominated by a repressive Communist country called China has little chance of occurring.  There are too many in the US (and the west?) that would rather 'end it all' than have the 'barbarians sack DC'.


----------



## blacktriangle

Kirkhill said:


> That flight path is interesting for a cargo flight.  They seemed to spend a lot of time "dragging their petticoats" just off Russian held territory on the Black Sea.
> 
> The same kind of  path the Type 45s  followed when the QE was in the Med.
> 
> HIt me if your dare?


Not a cargo flight.


----------



## daftandbarmy

blacktriangle said:


> Not a cargo flight.


----------



## AmmoTech90

I've had to work with the flight planners to route planes around countries that don't allow DG over flight, not too uncommon.

As far as the AT weapons go, they could be shipping off NLAW as that is their current disposable AT weapon- pretty pricey though and 8 years of shelf life is an eternity especially as they can usually be extended, see ADATS (don't mind Eryx off in the corner cracking open launch motors).  They might also have a bunch of M72 Anti-structure munitions from Afghanistan left over that for ease of explaining to media they called AT weapons, they look like a HEAT M72 from outside, except for the black tube...which according to NATO colour coding is armour defeating, but not in this case.


----------



## Kirkhill

AmmoTech90 said:


> I've had to work with the flight planners to route planes around countries that don't allow DG over flight, not too uncommon.
> 
> As far as the AT weapons go, they could be shipping off NLAW as that is their current disposable AT weapon- pretty pricey though and 8 years of shelf life is an eternity especially as they can usually be extended, see ADATS (don't mind Eryx off in the corner cracking open launch motors).  They might also have a bunch of M72 Anti-structure munitions from Afghanistan left over that for ease of explaining to media they called AT weapons, they look like a HEAT M72 from outside, except for the black tube...which according to NATO colour coding is armour defeating, but not in this case.



I can't create an image of the flight path but it doesn't look like it was making any attempt to avoid "enemy" airspace.  It looked more as if it was keeping just outside the 12 mile limit of the Crimea and the Russian coast.  With a couple of interesting circuits thrown in for good measure.

I think Black Triangle is on to something.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> Good luck to the Chinese (or Russians) in convincing the rest of the world to start a new trading currency for commodities.  They routinely manipulate their currency, resulting in their currency being vastly undervalued against the USD. This is done to ensure that their products/manufacturing are continuously priced low.  China has no floating exchange rate.
> The IMF and World Bank are still dominated by the Euros and the Americans, until the link is broken and broken consistently, China (and Russia) will have little luck in moving forward with any of their goals.
> If you think that the developed countries of the world would be willing to 'leave' the USD and move over to trading in currency of a Communist country, good luck.
> No one knows what the future may bring in 10, 25, 50 years.  But a world dominated by a repressive Communist country called China has little chance of occurring.  There are too many in the US (and the west?) that would rather 'end it all' than have the 'barbarians sack DC'.


What is to stop the Europeans and Russians from switching to Euros?


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> What is to stop the Europeans and Russians from switching to Euros?


Switching what? 
The EU won't be moving away from the relationship that they already have with all trading models.  Please don't try to suggest that the EU will be breaking with the US and jumping into bed with the Russians on trading or any other issues.
If the US ever decided to move out of Europe (of course they wouldn't leave the UK) and went back home, Putin would be moving into Europe within the month, don't ever forget that.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> Switching what?


The currency that commodities is traded in.


Czech_pivo said:


> The EU won't be moving away from the relationship that they already have with all trading models.  Please don't try to suggest that the EU will be breaking with the US and jumping into bed with the Russians on trading or any other issues.


The Europeans appear to be balking at the thought of banning the Russians from SWIFT, probably because they would freeze to death without Russian oil and gas.

In order to, you know, survive, instead of using USD for commodities trade Europe and Russia switch to Euros and the USA can't do a thing about it?



Czech_pivo said:


> If the US ever decided to move out of Europe (of course they wouldn't leave the UK) and went back home, Putin would be moving into Europe within the month, don't ever forget that.


SWIFT isn't tied to NATO.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> The currency that commodities is traded in.
> 
> The Europeans appear to be balking at the thought of banning the Russians from SWIFT, probably because they would freeze to death without Russian oil and gas.
> 
> In order to, you know, survive, instead of using USD for commodities trade Europe and Russia switch to Euros and the USA can't do a thing about it?
> 
> 
> SWIFT isn't tied to NATO.


Good luck.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> Good luck.


I don't imagine it to be an easy transition for either party, but Europe isn't a client state of the USA and can more or less do what it pleases. 

More than likely if Washington felt that this is the path Europe would take they would back down rather than begin the first steps of replacing the USD as the global reserve currency.


----------



## Kirkhill

The euro is plunging – and probably won't bounce back soon
					

To understand the euro’s weakness, you have to look at the US as well as Europe.




					theconversation.com


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> The currency that commodities is traded in.
> 
> The Europeans appear to be balking at the thought of banning the Russians from SWIFT, probably because they would freeze to death without Russian oil and gas.
> 
> In order to, you know, survive, instead of using USD for commodities trade Europe and Russia switch to Euros and the USA can't do a thing about it?
> 
> 
> SWIFT isn't tied to NATO.


No one is going to try to bend US over on the USD and switching, as we just make take our ball and go home, and everyone else likes to complain about us, but they enjoy a lot of safety from the weight of our balls.


----------



## Halifax Tar

KevinB said:


> No one is going to try to bend US over on the USD and switching, as we just make take our ball and go home, and everyone else likes to complain about us, but they enjoy a lot of safety from the weight of our balls.



I don't know why guys haven't done that already.  

I'd go full isolationism for a while and let these whiny Europeans and else take care of their own for a while.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Halifax Tar said:


> I don't know why guys haven't done that already.
> 
> I'd go full isolationism for a while and let these whiny Europeans and else take care of their own for a while.



Well, we all know what happens when we do that, don't we? Viz:









						World War I - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				












						World War II - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				












						Yugoslav Wars - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Halifax Tar

Time for a reminder ?


----------



## MilEME09

Russian ambassador to Canada says 'nobody cares' about threat of Western sanctions
					

Russia's Ambassador to Canada Oleg Stepanov says the threat of Western sanctions in response to a military buildup along the Ukraine border carries no weight.




					www.ctvnews.ca
				





Well he isn't wrong that Russia doesn't care


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> No one is going to try to bend US over on the USD and switching, as we just make take our ball and go home, and everyone else likes to complain about us, but they enjoy a lot of safety from the weight of our balls.


When the choices are switch to the euro to trade commodities or go along with banning Russia from SWIFT and freeze, well, its not much of a choice now is it?

As for the USA taking its ball and going home, again, article five and SWIFT are not tied at the hip are they?


----------



## Brad Sallows

The USD still commands a position as a widely-used unofficially recognized currency.  That is the part that would be hard to overcome.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Halifax Tar said:


> I don't know why guys haven't done that already.
> 
> I'd go full isolationism for a while and let these whiny Europeans and else take care of their own for a while.


How would going full isolationism impact American business interests abroad? Military alone the US has some 750 bases in some 80 countries, apparently.

I do agree everyone bitches about the US until shit hits the fan then it's red white and blue flags everywhere.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Jarnhamar said:


> How would going full isolationism impact American business interests abroad? Military alone the US has some 750 bases in some 80 countries, apparently.
> 
> I do agree everyone bitches about the US until shit hits the fan then it's red white and blue flags everywhere.



If they really wanted too they could withdraw militarily and use their Navy just protect trade routes. 

Their ability to consume alone will keep them as trading partners.  They could also reestablish their manufacturing power and rely less in others.  

Short term pain, long term gain.


----------



## MilEME09




----------



## KevinB

I’m not a fan of isolationism, I think it is short sighted and hurts America in the long run.    Basically I’m a big fan of fighting wars in other peoples homes and not mine. 

But, I also think that at a certain point, that everyone needs to pull their own weight.  Maybe losing a bit of Europe would reinforce that a point.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Halifax Tar said:


> If they really wanted too they could withdraw militarily and use their Navy just protect trade routes.
> 
> Their ability to consume alone will keep them as trading partners.  They could also reestablish their manufacturing power and rely less in others.
> 
> Short term pain, long term gain.


It would be sad to see this as parts of the world would see great upheaval and death. One of the areas the US would not turn their back on is Israel, for certain they would continue to be shaded by the US umbrella. 
The South Koreans and Japanese would come around pretty damn quick to the US new order and would gladly accept US hegemony over a vengeful China.
I could see India and Pakistan duking it out pretty quickly. Russia would try and run wild through as much of Europe as they could.  Parts of Africa would burn. Persia/Iran and the Saudi’s would go toe to toe. The Gulf States would plead for US protection. The list goes on and on.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> I’m not a fan of isolationism, I think it is short sighted and hurts America in the long run.    Basically I’m a big fan of fighting wars in other peoples homes and not mine.
> 
> But, I also think that at a certain point, that everyone needs to pull their own weight.  Maybe losing a bit of Europe would reinforce that a point.


But not the former Warsaw countries/Baltic’s. They have suffered enough under the Russian yoke and for the most most they take their participation in NATO seriously.


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> I’m not a fan of isolationism, I think it is short sighted and hurts America in the long run.    Basically I’m a big fan of fighting wars in other peoples homes and not mine.
> 
> But, I also think that at a certain point, that everyone needs to pull their own weight.  Maybe losing a bit of Europe would reinforce that a point.


Or maybe we need to hit back? What about those poor oppressed ethnic Poles, Ukrainians, germans, etc.. in Kaliningrad


----------



## Altair

Brad Sallows said:


> The USD still commands a position as a widely-used unofficially recognized currency.  That is the part that would be hard to overcome.


Hard yes, but certainly easier than freezing over winter.


----------



## YZT580

KevinB said:


> I’m not a fan of isolationism, I think it is short sighted and hurts America in the long run.    Basically I’m a big fan of fighting wars in other peoples homes and not mine.
> 
> But, I also think that at a certain point, that everyone needs to pull their own weight.  Maybe losing a bit of Europe would reinforce that a point.


Already lost a bit, how much more will be required?  Maybe Poland?


----------



## KevinB

YZT580 said:


> Already lost a bit, how much more will be required?  Maybe Poland?


I’d suggest based on German attitude currently that maybe some of German should be ceded 
   That may refresh them…


----------



## QV

Halifax Tar said:


> If they really wanted too they could withdraw militarily and use their Navy just protect trade routes.
> 
> Their ability to consume alone will keep them as trading partners.  They could also reestablish their manufacturing power and rely less in others.
> 
> Short term pain, long term gain.


You’re starting to sound like Peter Zeihan


----------



## Kilted

MilEME09 said:


> Or maybe we need to hit back? What about those poor oppressed ethnic Poles, Ukrainians, germans, etc.. in Kaliningrad


Now which country would it go to?


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> Or maybe we need to hit back? What about those poor oppressed ethnic Poles, Ukrainians, germans, etc.. in Kaliningrad



'Never interrupt your enemy while he is making a mistake.' Napoleon


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> I’m not a fan of isolationism, I think it is short sighted and hurts America in the long run.    Basically I’m a big fan of fighting wars in other peoples homes and not mine.
> 
> But, I also think that at a certain point, that everyone needs to pull their own weight.  Maybe losing a bit of Europe would reinforce that a point.





Czech_pivo said:


> But not the former Warsaw countries/Baltic’s. They have suffered enough under the Russian yoke and for the most most they take their participation in NATO seriously.



I'm with C_p on this one.

The problem is that most of the old Westerners will be only too happy to give up Poland, again.

It is a play they have used for a thousand years or more. 









						File:Territorial-changes-of-Poland-1635-2009.gif - Wikimedia Commons
					






					commons.wikimedia.org


----------



## MilEME09

Kilted said:


> Now which country would it go to?


logically i'd say Poland as it used to be Königsberg, and ethnically german till the soviets kicked them all out and shipped soviet citizens in. Pull off a little Green men operation and Russia looses the home base of the baltic fleet, and a major economic hub.










						Estonian president calls for more NATO troops to defend against Russia threat
					

‘We need a strong presence to make sure we are not going to be attacked,’ says Alar Karis.




					www.politico.eu
				




Baltic are getting Nervous and requesting more NATO forces.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> logically i'd say Poland as it used to be Königsberg, and ethnically german till the soviets kicked them all out and shipped soviet citizens in. Pull off a little Green men operation and Russia looses the home base of the baltic fleet, and a major economic hub.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Estonian president calls for more NATO troops to defend against Russia threat
> 
> 
> ‘We need a strong presence to make sure we are not going to be attacked,’ says Alar Karis.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.politico.eu
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Baltic are getting Nervous and requesting more NATO forces.


They saw how willing Washington, Ottawa, Paris and Berlin were all to willing to let Moscow have its way with Kiev and need reassuring that they are not as disposable.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> logically i'd say Poland as it used to be Königsberg, and ethnically german till the soviets kicked them all out and shipped soviet citizens in. Pull off a little Green men operation and Russia looses the home base of the baltic fleet, and a major economic hub.


That would take a _lot_ more political will than I'm seeing indications of from most of NATO ...

Meanwhile, from the Russian TASS info-machine (all links to archived article) ...

*"Canada’s weapons supplies to Ukraine will fuel conflict, Russian envoy warns"*
_*"Russia not concerned about Canada’s sanctions over Ukraine, ambassador says"*_
_*"State Duma to hash over draft appeal to president on recognizing DPR, LPR, says speaker"*_
_*"Russia’s demand for NATO pullout also applies to Bulgaria, Romania, says Foreign Ministry* -- It is about withdrawing foreign troops, equipment and weapons, as well as about other steps aimed at restoring the 1997 configuration of those countries who weren’t NATO members at that time ..."_


----------



## Halifax Tar

I had to google him.  Great another book to read lol


----------



## Czech_pivo

Interesting flight plan for this plane out of Diepholz Air base (actually, 'seen' near Diepholz, not sure if its from there).  Not sure whose aircraft it is (looks like a RC-135 from the USAF) but its the first I've seen out of Germany making these big sweeping loops back and forth across the northern of the Crimea and just west of the Donbass.  Maybe the Germans have seen the light?









						JAKE11 Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware
					

Track JAKE11 flight from Fernandina Beach, FL to Fernandina Beach, FL




					flightaware.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> ... Maybe the Germans have seen the light?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> JAKE11 Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware
> 
> 
> Track JAKE11 flight from Fernandina Beach, FL to Fernandina Beach, FL
> 
> 
> 
> 
> flightaware.com


"We let them fly around to take a look at things" is likely more palatable to Germany right now than "we sent Ukraine weapons (or helped that happen."


----------



## Czech_pivo

Lots' of interesting flights occurring around Poland right now.  A number of helo's in the air and lots of small planes flying circular flight patterns with variation to speed/altitude.









						BNI8M Alberni Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware
					

Track Alberni  #8M flight from Lodz Wladyslaw Reymont to Lodz Wladyslaw Reymont




					flightaware.com
				











						SP-SPO Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware
					

Track SP-SPO flight from Warsaw Babice to Warsaw Babice




					flightaware.com
				











						BNI8A Alberni Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware
					

Track Alberni  #8A flight from Lodz Wladyslaw Reymont to Lodz Wladyslaw Reymont




					flightaware.com
				











						BNI8A Alberni Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware
					

Track Alberni  #8A flight from Lodz Wladyslaw Reymont to Lodz Wladyslaw Reymont




					flightaware.com
				











						SP-KAS Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware
					

Track SP-KAS flight from Zielona Gora/Przylep




					flightaware.com
				











						SP-AER Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware
					

Track SP-AER flight from Mengen-Hohentengen to Perpignan Rivesaltes




					flightaware.com
				




Helo's in Poland








						SP-HPR Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware
					

Track SP-HPR flight from Katowice to Leszno-Strzyżewice




					flightaware.com
				











						SP-PSK Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware
					

Track SP-PSK flight from Rybnik, Silesia, Poland to Kaniów




					flightaware.com
				




No idea if today is just a good day to fly in Poland or if flight school training day is today but that's alot of smaller planes doing circles and such (there are more, I didn't post them all, probably triple the above numbers)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Speaking of flying, Transport Canada's issued a warning ....


> We’ve issued a NOTAM to Canadian air operators and owners of aircraft registered in Canada advising not to enter the Dnipropetrovsk and Simferopol regions of Ukraine airspace due to potential risk of military activity.


Text here from the NAV Canada web page (runs from 19 Jan to 19 April - for now, anyway)


----------



## AmmoTech90

The Brits have supplied NLAW, just saw a video of them being unloaded in Ukraine.








						Russia-Ukraine tensions: UK sends 30 elite troops and 2,000 anti-tank weapons to Ukraine amid fears of Russian invasion
					

British surveillance aircraft have also been spotted as part of a quiet but notable build-up of support to Ukraine's military by the UK.




					news.sky.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

Looking like some NATO countries are stepping up to the plate.

Spain - sending an additional warship to the Black Sea to supplement their patrol ship that was already scheduled for rotation there. Also considering fighter aircraft to Bulgaria.
Also, these words from the Spanish FM - “_Spain has a very clear [stance] on this. Should it prove necessary, we would act within the framework of the EU. Spain does not rule out sending its troops into the territory of Ukraine if the crisis aggravates,” he replied,_
Those words are in contrast to Biden saying that he won't send US troops to the Ukraine.









						Spain sends 2 warships to Black Sea for NATO exercise
					

Blas de Lezo and Meteoro will arrive in 3-4 days, says defense minister - Anadolu Agency




					www.aa.com.tr
				




France - has offered to send additional troops to Romania. 









						France ready to send NATO troops to Romania
					

The President of France, Emmanuel Macron, announced on Wednesday, January 19, that France would send troops to Romania as part of NATO operations to ensure the security of the eastern alliance states, G4media.ro reported. The statement comes amid a security crisis on NATO's eastern flank. "We...




					www.romania-insider.com


----------



## MilEME09

Yet still no movement of the eurocorp high readiness brigade, at this point I am suspecting because the germans are resisting any multilateral efforts involving their troops. Less the face Putin turning off the taps. We shall see how this plays our in Germany next election cycle, a soft hand during this crisis could handled Germany over to more nationalist parties on the right.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> ... We shall see how this plays our in Germany next election cycle, a soft hand during this crisis could handled Germany over to more nationalist parties on the right.


And there's no guarantee the right there would necessarily be anti-Putin ...


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> And there's no guarantee the right there would necessarily be anti-Putin ...


Little doubt that the FSB has compromising photos of all these POS with their Russian 'interpreters' during their trip the Crimea.

I'd also like to better understand how a non-EU citizen, this Tamara Volokhova, can become not only the Parliamentary Attaché to a MEP, but then the 'policy advisor' to an EU political group that elects members in the EP. By the end of 2020 she obtained French citizenship, after working in France for 8yrs. 

Do we here in Canada allow non-citizens to become Parliamentary Assistants and Policy Advisors to Canadian Political Parties?  I mean I guess a Chinese citizen who comes here to study university can then obtain a job offer as a Parliamentary Assistant to a sitting member of Parliament and that job offer would give then 'landed immigrant' status?  Is that true?


----------



## Good2Golf

Czech_pivo said:


> Little doubt that the FSB has compromising photos of all these POS with their Russian 'interpreters' during their trip the Crimea.
> 
> I'd also like to better understand how a non-EU citizen, this Tamara Volokhova, can become not only the Parliamentary Attaché to a MEP, but then the 'policy advisor' to an EU political group that elects members in the EP. By the end of 2020 she obtained French citizenship, after working in France for 8yrs.
> 
> Do we here in Canada allow non-citizens to become Parliamentary Assistants and Policy Advisors to Canadian Political Parties?  I mean I guess a Chinese citizen who comes here to study university can then obtain a job offer as a Parliamentary Assistant to a sitting member of Parliament and that job offer would give then 'landed immigrant' status?  Is that true?


Well we employ(ed) them in Level 4 bio labs, so a POLAD wouldn’t be stretching…


----------



## OldSolduer

To anyone deployed there I certainly hope cooler heads prevail


----------



## Jarnhamar

MilEME09 said:


> Yet still no movement of the eurocorp high readiness brigade, at this point I am suspecting because the germans are resisting any multilateral efforts involving their troops. Less the face Putin turning off the taps. We shall see how this plays our in Germany next election cycle, a soft hand during this crisis could handled Germany over to more nationalist parties on the right.


It wouldn't be the first time Germany and Russia wheeled and dealed behind everyone's back.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Good2Golf said:


> Well we employ(ed) them in Level 4 bio labs, so a POLAD wouldn’t be stretching…


Though I don’t agree with that occurring, I can ‘see’ that angle, professionally, making some sense, though not from a security perspective.
But to hire a person who was not raised there, only spent a few years in uni there, to hire that person, with zero understanding of how a democratically elected parliament functions, as a Parliamentary Attaché and then Policy Advisor is completely BS - and if we allow this to happen here, it will be the end of us.


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> Yet still no movement of the eurocorp high readiness brigade, at this point I am suspecting because the germans are resisting any multilateral efforts involving their troops. Less the face Putin turning off the taps. We shall see how this plays our in Germany next election cycle, a soft hand during this crisis could handled Germany over to more nationalist parties on the right.



Probably less about turning off the taps than being seen to incite a conflict that jacks up the price. The price of oil is at historic highs and could crush a few fragile economies. 

If Russia kicks it off on their own, without the Euro-trash mobilizing to incite it, at least they can mollify their electorates by blaming Putin as the bad guy.

#realeoilpolitik



Russia-Ukraine crisis could spark a surge in Europe’s gas prices, topping last year’s highs​

If the Russia-Ukraine crisis escalates, gas prices in Europe – which soared to highs last year – could surge further, research firm Capital Economics said in a note over the weekend.
“It’s a very tight gas market ... and there’s no question that this sense of imminent crisis building with Russia and Ukraine is also hanging over the market, particularly since Russia does provide about 35% of Europe’s gas,” energy expert Dan Yergin told CNBC on Monday.
A massive gas crunch in Europe last year led to European power prices spiraling to multi-year highs.
As it is, gas supplies from Russia were already lower than usual, Jefferies pointed out in a note on Sunday.









						Russia-Ukraine crisis could spark a surge in Europe's gas prices, topping last year’s highs
					

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have cast a shadow over energy markets, and the uncertainty could mean prolonged high gas prices for Europe, analysts say.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## MilEME09

It's curious the west is only sending AT weapons, no AA, wonder if intel suggests the Russian airforce won't play a big part


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> It's curious the west is only sending AT weapons, no AA, wonder if intel suggests the Russian airforce won't play a big part


Maybe its a question of what we know vs what we don't know. 
We know that they have had a couple of thousand AT weapons given to them over the short term recently.  What we don't know is if they've been given a few hundred stingers or equivalents as well.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Germans blocking Estonia from transferring Artillery to Ukraine that they received from Germany originally.

 As well as this.









						German chancellor turned down Biden invite to discuss Ukraine crisis - Der Spiegel
					

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz turned down an invite at short notice from U.S. President Joe Biden to discuss the Ukraine crisis, German magazine Der Spiegel said on Friday.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> It's curious the west is only sending AT weapons, no AA, wonder if intel suggests the Russian airforce won't play a big part


Are there any decent AA systems availble that are beyond a SHORAD capability?


----------



## suffolkowner

Don’t believe Putin’s propaganda. Sanctions are hurting Russia.
					

International sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014 in response to Moscow's attack on Ukraine continue to have a negative impact on the country's economy despite Kremlin efforts to claim otherwise.




					www.atlanticcouncil.org
				




this is a nice article on some of the financial repercussions


----------



## Kilted

Jarnhamar said:


> It wouldn't be the first time Germany and Russia wheeled and dealed behind everyone's back.


Yes, but that was Nazi Germany.


----------



## MilEME09

It's an interesting position for the 4th largest arms exporter in the world.


----------



## Czech_pivo

suffolkowner said:


> Don’t believe Putin’s propaganda. Sanctions are hurting Russia.
> 
> 
> International sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014 in response to Moscow's attack on Ukraine continue to have a negative impact on the country's economy despite Kremlin efforts to claim otherwise.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.atlanticcouncil.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> this is a nice article on some of the financial repercussions


I was sometimes was confused if this article was about Canada or Russia.
Some examples:

"economy is.....concentrated in a few regions and conglomerates, heavily dependent on technology imports....'
"Low growth and high inflation have severely affected Russian Canadian living standards...."
"notorious inefficiency of state-owned enterprises..."
"calculated that Russian Canadian energy companies relied on imports for over half of all basic drilling equipment and more than 90% of hydraulic fracturing and offshore drilling technology."
"China American reneged on financing allowing new oil and gas pipelines..."


Here's a nod to *Altair *and how successful alternative to SWIFT that Russia/China -

_Despite repeated agreements to use national currencies in mutual trade, dollars and euros continue to dominate. While *one* Chinese bank has joined *Russia’s alternative to the SWIFT payments system,* no others have followed. Just 23 foreign banks have signed up, but only 12 use the system. China’s alternative has about four times the number of members. Yet in 2021, Chinese bank usage of SWIFT reached its highest level since 2015._


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> It's an interesting position for the 4th largest and somewhat selective arms exporter in the world.


Yeah ...


> Germany is blocking North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally Estonia from giving military support to Ukraine by refusing to issue permits for German-origin weapons to be exported to Kyiv as it braces for a potential Russian invasion.
> 
> Unlike the U.S., Britain, Poland and other allies, the German government has declined to export lethal weapons directly to Ukraine.
> 
> In the case of Estonia, a small country on Russia’s northern border, Berlin is also refusing to allow a third country to send artillery to Ukraine because the weaponry originated in Germany, according to Estonian and German officials ...


More here


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> It's curious the west is only sending AT weapons, *no AA*, wonder if intel suggests the Russian airforce won't play a big part


Only a few Stingers, if the _Wall Street Journal_ is to be believed.


----------



## The Bread Guy

What the bad guys say Ukraine is up to (links to archived version of article in Russian - translation below via Google Translate)


> *Statement by the NM DPR on the preparation of Ukraine for an offensive in the Donbass*
> 
> The command of the People's Militia of the DPR records the preparation of units of the armed formations of Ukraine to unleash active hostilities in the Donbass.
> 
> The folding situation is formed on the basis of the following intelligence information:
> 
> - at the railway station of the settlement of Krasnoarmeysk (Ukr. Pokrovsk), six Smerch multiple rocket launchers and two Uragan MLRS with cluster munitions were unloaded;
> 
> - the last two weeks, the arrival in the zone of the so-called "operation of the joint forces" (in the areas of the settlements of Shumy, Marinka, Taramchuk and Chermalyk) of the nationalist units of the Right Sector DUK, as well as snipers from the 74th reconnaissance battalion and the special forces of the SBU " Alpha". Along the entire line of contact, an increase in enemy reconnaissance activities using unmanned aerial vehicles is recorded;
> 
> - active replenishment of ammunition is being carried out at field artillery depots in the JFO zone, an active supply of various ammunition to a depot near the Dobropolye settlement was noted;
> 
> - at the Anadol training ground, on the basis of the 25th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, enhanced training of the RCBZ units is being carried out, in connection with which there is still a possibility of provocations by the enemy using chemicals that were delivered to the settlements of Avdiivka and Krasny Liman at the end of 2021.
> 
> Also recently, NATO countries have been actively transferring various weapons and military equipment to the territory of Ukraine. In the past few days alone, 9 C-17 aircraft have arrived from the UK, delivering more than 460 tons of various lethal weapons, including about 2,000 NLAW anti-tank grenade launchers.
> 
> NATO countries have repeatedly stated that all the weapons supplied to Ukraine are not intended for use in the so-called "Joint Forces Operation" zone. At the same time, intelligence of the People's Militia of the DPR received reliable information about the arrival in the JFO zone of a large batch of NLAW anti-tank grenade launchers intended to equip military units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine located on the line of contact.
> 
> According to the information we have, these anti-tank weapons will be used by assault groups of the 25th and 95th airborne brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the so-called national battalions in the course of hostilities to seize the settlements of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics.
> 
> Previously, British military instructors had already prepared calculations for the use of these anti-tank grenade launchers. Their training took place at the 199th training center of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Zhytomyr region.
> 
> The transfer of NLAW anti-tank grenade launchers and other lethal weapons by the Ukrainian military command, the arrival of nationalist battalions to the line of contact once again confirms the fact that the Ukrainian army is preparing for active hostilities in the Donbass.
> 
> We call on Western countries to stop supplying Ukraine with lethal weapons and force the Kiev authorities to comply with the Minsk package.
> 
> *Deputy Head of the People's Militia Department of the DPR, Colonel Eduard Basurin*


Statement in Russian also attached


----------



## suffolkowner

a couple articles from the drive









						Russia's Landing Ships Are Headed To The Mediterranean To Join A Growing Armada (Updated)
					

The six Russian amphibious ships, a cruiser, and a destroyer are converging on the Mediterranean, where a U.S. carrier strike group is also sailing.




					www.thedrive.com
				




are all these ships going to be able to enter the Black Sea? How does Turkey and the Montreux Convention impact this?










						U.S. Clears The Way For Transferring Ex-Afghan Mi-17 Helicopters To Ukraine: Report
					

The United States and its allies are racing to deliver weapons and other military equipment to Ukraine ahead of a potential new Russian invasion.




					www.thedrive.com
				




So it looks like some of the helicopters are already in Ukraine for maintenance, every little bit helps

What Ukraine really needs is greater air defence and fighters. I wonder if there is an appetite from some NATO members to provide air support or failing that to transfer some common fighters to Ukraine as they transition to F-16's?


Mig-29Mig 21Su-22Su-24Su-25Poland2318Slovakia10Bulgaria118Romania24

I'm not sure if Ukraine would have use for Mig-21's or Su-22's but they already have Su-25's and Mig-29's. The 44 Mig-29's could easily be made up by NATO rotations


----------



## Czech_pivo

suffolkowner said:


> a couple articles from the drive
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia's Landing Ships Are Headed To The Mediterranean To Join A Growing Armada (Updated)
> 
> 
> The six Russian amphibious ships, a cruiser, and a destroyer are converging on the Mediterranean, where a U.S. carrier strike group is also sailing.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedrive.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> are all these ships going to be able to enter the Black Sea? How does Turkey and the Montreux Convention impact this?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> U.S. Clears The Way For Transferring Ex-Afghan Mi-17 Helicopters To Ukraine: Report
> 
> 
> The United States and its allies are racing to deliver weapons and other military equipment to Ukraine ahead of a potential new Russian invasion.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedrive.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So it looks like some of the helicopters are already in Ukraine for maintenance, every little bit helps
> 
> What Ukraine really needs is greater air defence and fighters. I wonder if there is an appetite from some NATO members to provide air support or failing that to transfer some common fighters to Ukraine as they transition to F-16's?
> 
> 
> Mig-29Mig 21Su-22Su-24Su-25Poland2318Slovakia10Bulgaria118Romania24
> 
> I'm not sure if Ukraine would have use for Mig-21's or Su-22's but they already have Su-25's and Mig-29's. The 44 Mig-29's could easily be made up by NATO rotations


Add in a French frigate, a Spanish frigate and a patrol ship and HMCS Montreal to that list in the Black Sea. Plus, Romanian and Bulgarian naval vessels. Turkish as well but I doubt they will move to Odessa area in support.


----------



## SupersonicMax

suffolkowner said:


> Are there any decent AA systems availble that are beyond a SHORAD capability?


A robust DCA umbrella


----------



## suffolkowner

SupersonicMax said:


> A robust DCA umbrella


What systems would that consist of though? Just looking at Sky Sabre and NASAAMS and even Patriot missiles systems they don't seem to have very large ranges


----------



## SupersonicMax

suffolkowner said:


> What systems would that consist of though? Just looking at Sky Sabre and NASAAMS and even Patriot missiles systems they don't seem to have very large ranges


F-22s and F-15Cs


----------



## MilEME09

SupersonicMax said:


> F-22s and F-15Cs


Would need some AGM88s to deal with all that Russian AA


----------



## SupersonicMax

MilEME09 said:


> Would need some AGM88s to deal with all that Russian AA


Or F-35s.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Kilted said:


> Yes, but that was Nazi Germany.


It's possible Germany doesn't trust Bidens USA to have their back so they're trying to buy off Russia. Seems weird that Germany would be so out of step with the US and UK. They're even blocking other countries from helping.

Command and Conquer didn't see _this _coming.


----------



## MilEME09

Jarnhamar said:


> Command and Conquer didn't see _this _coming.


We are at the part before the time machine


----------



## KevinB

suffolkowner said:


> What systems would that consist of though? Just looking at Sky Sabre and NASAAMS and even Patriot missiles systems they don't seem to have very large ranges


I suspect a lot of stuff is going to OT (Operational Testing) in the Ukraine. 
   Look at the origin of some of the flights from the US…


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> I suspect a lot of stuff is going to OT (Operational Testing) in the Ukraine.
> Look at the origin of some of the flights from the US…


If a shooting war goes off, a lot of data can be gathered on effectiveness vs Russian equipment


----------



## Kilted

Jarnhamar said:


> It's possible Germany doesn't trust Bidens USA to have their back so they're trying to buy off Russia. Seems weird that Germany would be so out of step with the US and UK. They're even blocking other countries from helping.
> 
> Command and Conquer didn't see _this _coming.


It's concerning that there is already a lack of cooperation in NATO. Apparently every member isn't as willing to stand up to the auld enemy as much as some of the others.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Kilted said:


> It's concerning that there is already a lack of cooperation in NATO. Apparently every member isn't as willing to stand up to the auld enemy as much as some of the others.


Hey they need to check with the polling companies first to see how that will impact votes


----------



## Good2Golf

Kilted said:


> It's concerning that there is already a lack of cooperation in NATO. Apparently every member isn't as willing to stand up to the auld enemy as much as some of the others.


Building a custom pipeline to supply your energy drugs directly from Uncle Vlad was what some would call I&Ws…


----------



## MilEME09

The alliance is more divided then we let on, because economic interests seem to Trump security situations.


----------



## Kilted

MilEME09 said:


> The alliance is more divided then we let on, because economic interests seem to Trump security situations.


And Ivan is looking to take advantage of it.


----------



## Brad Sallows

Coalitions are always at a disadvantage because the members' respective interests are not wholly congruent.  An ally who is right there beside you when it's his country being invaded often enough will be sticky when it's someone else's border being crossed.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> I suspect a lot of stuff is going to OT (Operational Testing) in the Ukraine.
> Look at the origin of some of the flights from the US…


You mean like Huntsville….


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> The alliance is more divided then we let on, because economic interests seem to Trump security situations.


Having 30 members by default means it’s going to be divided.


----------



## Czech_pivo

I’m assuming that you all have read about the 120$m loan that Trudeau announced for the Ukraine, but we’re you aware that it came with 1 condition? 
Not one penny can be used to buy weapons or military equipment…..
What the Ukrainians should use the 120$m for is to buy coffins and pay for the funerals for its soldiers if Russia invades  and publicize that Canada’s loan was used for those purposes. Now that would be a great fu to Trudeau.

_“There is one condition attached to Canada’s loan, stressed a Liberal source familiar with the matter: Ukraine cannot buy any weapons or military equipment with the money.”_









						Google News
					

Comprehensive up-to-date news coverage, aggregated from sources all over the world by Google News.




					news.google.com


----------



## MilEME09

If I was Ukraine  I'd buy weapons any way, how can Canada prove 120 million into their coffers was used for weapons vs tax dollars


----------



## Kirkhill

> On Friday, Trudeau said he did not close the door on sending weapons to Ukraine.
> “We are looking at what more we can do and how we can help even more. We will surely have more to say in the days and the weeks to come.”



Do we have weapons to send to Ukraine?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> Do we have weapons to send to Ukraine?



Yes. Yes we do.


----------



## KevinB

Use the money to get the Chechens rolling again…
    I mean we may as well get the Muslims killing Russians again, tends to disrupt stuff.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> ... I mean we may as well get the Muslims killing Russians again, tends to disrupt stuff.


... until they turn on the funders - eventually ...


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> If I was Ukraine  I'd buy weapons any way, how can Canada prove 120 million into their coffers was used for weapons vs tax dollars




Heck, Canada can’t even confirm where $600B of its own money went, much less a paltry $120M…


----------



## SeaKingTacco

MilEME09 said:


> If I was Ukraine  I'd buy weapons any way, how can Canada prove 120 million into their coffers was used for weapons vs tax dollars


Loans of this nature could be held at a Canadian banking institution. When bills come in, money gets paid out, so it is pretty easy to see what the money is being spent on.

The smart thing for the Ukrainians to do would be to use it to buy Canadian gold or a couple of tanker loads of crude oil (really, anything fungible) and then  re-sell it. The money is then clean and can be used to buy weapons and the Liberals can sleep soundly at night…


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> Yes. Yes we do.
> 
> 
> View attachment 68203



On the plus side, we know they work at -40.


----------



## RangerRay

I couldn’t resist. An oldie but a goodie!


----------



## Baloo

I've been looking around for decent OSINT feeds regarding the Russian build-up and I've found a couple that may interest some folks:



			https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka
		




			https://twitter.com/CITeam_en
		




			https://twitter.com/Danspiun
		


The last link contains a lot of photographs and videos of vehicle and equipment movement, current up to the last few hours.


----------



## Altair

suffolkowner said:


> Don’t believe Putin’s propaganda. Sanctions are hurting Russia.
> 
> 
> International sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014 in response to Moscow's attack on Ukraine continue to have a negative impact on the country's economy despite Kremlin efforts to claim otherwise.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.atlanticcouncil.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> this is a nice article on some of the financial repercussions


Western sanctions don't hurt Russia nearly as much as Russian bombs shells and bullets hurt Ukraine.


----------



## Kirkhill

Dec 17, 2021









						Russian court accidentally delivers guilty verdict on Putin’s Ukraine war
					

A Russian court in Rostov has accidentally issued a guilty verdict on Putin's Ukraine war by publishing official documents confirming the presence of Russian military units in Kremlin-occupied eastern Ukraine.




					www.atlanticcouncil.org
				






> The verdict in the case against V. H. Zabaluyev was originally published on November 10, 2021, but only came to the attention of journalists in mid-December. It states that Zabaluyev oversaw the procurement and delivery of food to “military units of the armed forces of the Russian Federation” deployed in the Kremlin’s two self-styled people’s republics in eastern Ukraine.
> 
> The verdict goes on to provide considerable detail about these deliveries, which apparently took place every two weeks over an extended period in 2018-2019. According to court papers, convoys of up to 70 trucks carried a range of food supplies from the Rostov region to Russian soldiers stationed in Kremlin-occupied eastern Ukraine. The sums of money and volumes of cargo indicated in official court documents suggest a Russian troop presence in eastern Ukraine numbering in the tens of thousands. Drivers reportedly received high salaries due to the perceived “complexity and danger of the route.”





> Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov attempted to play down the scandal by insisting it was all the result of human error. “We are probably talking about a mistake by those who wrote the text because it is impossible,” he told reporters. “There were and there are no armed forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of the self-proclaimed republics.”





> In a recent article addressing the stalled peace process, former US Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker noted that the current lack of clarity was hampering efforts to impose additional costs on the Kremlin. “Privately, French and German diplomats acknowledge Russia’s responsibility for the ongoing war, but for diplomatic reasons do not often state this publicly,” Volker observed. “There are signs that this Franco-German unwillingness to identify the aggressor is feeding through into a refusal to consider detailed sanctions at this juncture and even to deny defensive weaponry to Ukraine.”




Since December France has been supplying weapons to Ukraine



> Ukraine has been buying arms through deals with the United States, Britain, Lithuania, France and Turkey, which has been supplying armed drones.
> 
> Anti-missile and anti-aircraft systems, electronic warfare kits and cyber defense equipment are high on Ukraine’s shopping list. Ukraine is also eager to buy surface-to-surface missiles that can strike swarms of targets simultaneously.





> Germany is under mounting pressure from European allies to drop its long-standing refusal to supply weapons to Ukraine to help the country to defend itself from a Russian attack.
> 
> Britain flew short-range anti-tank missiles to Ukraine on Monday, avoiding German airspace.











						NATO Countries Urged to Supply More Weapons to Ukraine
					

Pressure mounts on Germany to drop a long-standing refusal to help the country defend itself in the event of a Russian attack




					www.voanews.com
				






Gerhard Schröder: former German chancellor and currently chairman of Rosneft, which brought some controversy in western countries as a result









						Alexey Miller and Gerhard Schroeder, Chairman of Shareholders’ Committee of Nord Stream AG, hold working meeting
					

A working meeting between Alexey Miller Chairman of the Gazprom Management Committee, and Gerhard Schroeder, Chairman of the Shareholders' Committee of Nord Stream AG, took place today at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum 2021.




					www.gazprom.com
				






> Business activities[edit]​Schröder's plans after leaving office as Chancellor and resigning his Bundestag seat included resuming his law practice in Berlin, writing a book, and implementing plans for twin pipelines for Gazprom, Russia's leading energy company. He was subsequently retained by the Swiss publisher Ringier AG as a consultant.[71] Other board memberships include the following:
> 
> 
> Herrenknecht, Deputy Chairman of the supervisory board (since 2017)[72]
> Nord Stream, Chairman of the Shareholders' Committee (since 2006)[73]
> CargoBeamer, Member of the Advisory Board
> N M Rothschild & Sons, Member of the European Advisory Council (since 2006)[74]
> Hannover 96, Chairman of the supervisory board (2016-2019)[75]
> TNK-BP, Member of the International Advisory Board (2009)[76]
> Other activities[edit]​In addition, Schröder has held several other paid and unpaid positions since his retirement from German politics, including:
> 
> 
> Berggruen Institute, Member of the Council for the Future of Europe and the 21st Century Council.[77]
> Bundesliga Foundation, Member of the Board of Trustees
> German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Member of the Advisory Council[78]
> Dresden Frauenkirche, Member of the Board of Trustees[79]
> Friedrich Ebert Foundation (FES), Member[80]
> Mädchenchor Hannover Foundation, Member of the Board of Trustees[81]
> Museum Berggruen, Member of the International Council[82]
> German Near and Middle East Association (NUMOV), Honorary Chairman of the Board[83]
> Wilhelm Busch Museum, chairman of the Board of Trustees (since 2013)
> InterAction Council of Former Heads of State and Government, Member[84]
> International Willy Brandt Prize, Member of the Jury[85]











						Gerhard Schröder - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				











						Rosneft - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## The Bread Guy

Something else to keep in mind re:  Germany's and France's less-than-robust response:  they're also co-sponsors, so to speak, of the Minsk accords (lay person's MSM summary of the key points here) that were supposed to bring the conflict to an end - this from a joint DEU-FRA statement in November:


> ... Against the backdrop of renewed concerns about Russian movements of troops and hardware near Ukraine, we call on Russia to adopt a posture of restraint and provide transparent information about its military activities. Any new attempt to undermine Ukraine’s territorial integrity would have serious consequences.
> 
> We called on Ukraine to maintain a posture of restraint. Already in Spring 2021, Ukraine contributed significantly to the de-escalation of the situation, despite Russian aggressive rhetoric and failure to provide transparent information in line with its international obligations.
> 
> We also shared concerns about the deteriorating humanitarian and security situation in Donbas. We called on Ukraine to continue the full implementation of the Minsk agreements and to maintain its full engagement into the discussions conducted in the Normandy format.
> 
> We remain committed to the resolution of the conflict on the basis of the Minsk agreements ...


Meanwhile, both sides say the other side's preventing the terms of the agreement from being implemented (RUS's fault here, UKR's fault here) - and FRA & DEU have signed on the dotted line with their presence @ the talks saying they'll work toward getting the (far less than ideal) agreement done.


----------



## Altair

The Bread Guy said:


> Something else to keep in mind re:  Germany's and France's less-than-robust response:  they're also co-sponsors, so to speak, of the Minsk accords (lay person's MSM summary of the key points here) that were supposed to bring the conflict to an end - this from a joint DEU-FRA statement in November:
> 
> Meanwhile, both sides say the other side's preventing the terms of the agreement from being implemented (RUS's fault here, UKR's fault here) - and FRA & DEU have signed on the dotted line saying they'll work toward getting the (far less than ideal) agreement done.


When one member of the accord is planning to eat in part or in whole, another member of the accord, then that accord is useful for only one thing. 

Toilet paper.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Altair said:


> When one member of the accord is planning to eat in part or in whole, another member of the accord ...


Yeah, that's about right - Russia got what it wanted.  And now France & Germany have to (at least look like they want to) make that happen.


----------



## suffolkowner

Baloo said:


> I've been looking around for decent OSINT feeds regarding the Russian build-up and I've found a couple that may interest some folks:
> 
> 
> 
> https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://twitter.com/CITeam_en
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://twitter.com/Danspiun
> 
> 
> 
> The last link contains a lot of photographs and videos of vehicle and equipment movement, current up to the last few hours.


You could try Rob Lee



			https://twitter.com/RALee85?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
		










						Moscow’s Compellence Strategy - Foreign Policy Research Institute
					

How ambitious are Russia's foreign policy objectives, and how much force does Moscow believe it must employ to achieve them? Moscow has submitted various




					www.fpri.org


----------



## MilEME09

The latest, western intelligence is now saying the Russians are planning pro Russian regime change  if so, invasion is inevitable.










						Russia-Ukraine tensions: UK warns of plot to install pro-Moscow ally
					

The Foreign Office takes the unusual step of naming a former Ukrainian MP as a potential Kremlin candidate.



					www.bbc.com
				






			The hawks are screeching over Ukraine. Will cooler heads prevail? - Macleans.ca
		










						Ukraine embassy calls on Canada to send weapons, sanction Russia after $120M loan announced
					






					nationalpost.com


----------



## Altair

suffolkowner said:


> You could try Rob Lee
> 
> 
> 
> https://twitter.com/RALee85?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Moscow’s Compellence Strategy - Foreign Policy Research Institute
> 
> 
> How ambitious are Russia's foreign policy objectives, and how much force does Moscow believe it must employ to achieve them? Moscow has submitted various
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.fpri.org


The joint exercise with Belarus ends February 20th, the same day as the closing ceremony of the Beijing Olympics?

You don't say...


----------



## Czech_pivo

German V-Admiral falls on his sword

_“Speaking at an event in India on Friday, vice admiral Kay-Achim Schoenbach had said Ukraine would not regain the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014. Schoenbach also said it was important to have Russia on the same side against China, and suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin deserved "respect."_

Ouch, tell us how you really feel Hans….









						German navy chief resigns following Ukraine, Putin comments
					

The head of the German navy resigned late Saturday after coming under fire at home and abroad for comments he made on Ukraine and Russia.




					www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## Weinie

Czech_pivo said:


> *German V-Admiral falls on his sword*
> 
> _“Speaking at an event in India on Friday, vice admiral Kay-Achim Schoenbach had said Ukraine would not regain the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014. Schoenbach also said it was important to have Russia on the same side against China, and suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin deserved "respect."_
> 
> Ouch, tell us how you really feel Hans….
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> German navy chief resigns following Ukraine, Putin comments
> 
> 
> The head of the German navy resigned late Saturday after coming under fire at home and abroad for comments he made on Ukraine and Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca


More like he stuck his sword up his own arsch.


----------



## FJAG

Czech_pivo said:


> German V-Admiral falls on his sword
> 
> _“Speaking at an event in India on Friday, vice admiral Kay-Achim Schoenbach had said Ukraine would not regain the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014. Schoenbach also said it was important to have Russia on the same side against China, and suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin deserved "respect."_
> 
> Ouch, tell us how you really feel Hans….
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> German navy chief resigns following Ukraine, Putin comments
> 
> 
> The head of the German navy resigned late Saturday after coming under fire at home and abroad for comments he made on Ukraine and Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca



And a whole bunch of other stupid stuff.

The video of his really dumb speech (in English) is available on the Daily Mail's article on this.



> Ukraine slams Germany for refusing to supply weapons to Kyiv
> 
> 
> Ukraine's foreign ministry also said Saturday it had also summoned the German ambassador to Ukraine over comments made by German navy chief Kay-Achim Schoenbach.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.dailymail.co.uk



🤦‍♂️


----------



## MilEME09

Makes me wonder if Fritz got drunk at the beer gardens and got back together with the Ex from 1938......


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> The latest, western intelligence is now saying the Russians are planning pro Russian regime change  if so, invasion is inevitable ...


RUS info-machine via Associated Press:  Lies, all lies!


Altair said:


> The joint exercise with Belarus ends February 20th, the same day as the closing ceremony of the Beijing Olympics?


CHN info-machine via RUS state media (archived link here) on China asking to hold off until after the Olympics? Lies, all lies!

Meanwhile, some interesting wordsmithing at Der Spiegel.  Longish article on why Germany has little manouver room on Ukraine (political/economic fallout, with a detailed analysis of the politics) without mentioning their status as key players with the Minsk Accords or the Normandy Four even once.


----------



## Blackadder1916

FJAG said:


> And a whole bunch of other stupid stuff.
> 
> The video of his really dumb speech (in English) is available on the Daily Mail's article on this.
> 
> 🤦‍♂️



I was a little confused about why he would be speaking English in what appeared to be a committee meeting, then the light bulb came on and I realized he was in India.  Accepting that his command of English is an infinite measure greater than my now decades past mangling of Deutsch, could his faux pas (_now we're into trilingualism_) be attributed to stumbling in another language during a conversation when free-flowing thoughts are more common than during a prepared and rehearsed presentation?

As for his speech . . . in addition to the taped meeting at the Daily Mail link, Admiral Schoenbach also gave a presentation available here






I haven't had the time to listen to all of it yet.


----------



## FJAG

Blackadder1916 said:


> Accepting that his command of English is an infinite measure greater than my now decades past mangling of Deutsch, could his faux pas (_now we're into trilingualism_) be attributed to stumbling in another language during a conversation when free-flowing thoughts are more common than during a prepared and rehearsed presentation?


I think his command of English is very good.

Maybe it's just me but my impression was he was somewhat arrogantly giving the Indian "peasants" a lecture on the "India-Europolitik" - especially the bit about roping Russia in with Europe against the Chinese. Europe and particulalry Germany, having awakened to the China threat, have for a few years now been courting India and vice versa. Merkel went there in 2020, I believe, and there have been many high level discussions on everything from trade to defence.

Like I said, I don't think it was a language issue. To me he sounded like he was talking down to the Indian delegates and got carried away with his own brilliance. That happens to us Germans from time-to-time.  😁 

🤷‍♂️


----------



## Czech_pivo

Blackadder1916 said:


> I was a little confused about why he would be speaking English in what appeared to be a committee meeting, then the light bulb came on and I realized he was in India.  Accepting that his command of English is an infinite measure greater than my now decades past mangling of Deutsch, could his faux pas (_now we're into trilingualism_) be attributed to stumbling in another language during a conversation when free-flowing thoughts are more common than during a prepared and rehearsed presentation?
> 
> As for his speech . . . in addition to the taped meeting at the Daily Mail link, Admiral Schoenbach also gave a presentation available here
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I haven't had the time to listen to all of it yet.


Well I listened to the whole link.
First, the guy said at least 10 times through the whole thing how much he views China as a threat. I remember him saying the same thing about week and a half ago when he was in Singapore.  He views Russia as the enemy of my enemy is my friend. 
Second, his command of English is perfectly fine. No issue there.
Third, he seemed to be more in favour of Merkel and her old government than the new government. He made a telling statement during this answer about Russia, he said he was a Roman Catholic and if I remember correctly, in Germany they typically vote for the Christian Democrats, Merkel’s old party. Because of this, and his comments on Putin and the pressure the new Chancellor is under from the US, I think the SD’s forced him out.
Lastly, I think the guy thinks like a military man, not a politician. He definitely believed that he was among friends there in India, especially when he told them that his son was marrying an Indian girl and that he was emigrating to India. He didn’t believe that someone would leak this comments out of rom that forum. He learned a very valuable lesson today, trust few people and keep your true opinions to yourself.


----------



## SeaKingTacco

FJAG said:


> I think his command of English is very good.
> 
> Maybe it's just me but my impression was he was somewhat arrogantly giving the Indian "peasants" a lecture on the "India-Europolitik" - especially the bit about roping Russia in with Europe against the Chinese. Europe and particulalry Germany, having awakened to the China threat, have for a few years now been courting India and vice versa. Merkel went there in 2020, I believe, and there have been many high level discussions on everything from trade to defence.
> 
> Like I said, I don't think it was a language issue. To me he sounded like he was talking down to the Indian delegates and got carried away with his own brilliance. That happens to us Germans from time-to-time.  😁
> 
> 🤷‍♂️


Hang on now- An arrogant German General Staff Officer?


----------



## Czech_pivo

USAF out scouting the border regions









						Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map | Flightradar24
					

View flight  on Flightradar24




					www.flightradar24.com
				




LOL, this is the #1 tracked flight in the world, with over 4,400 people tracking it with 4,300 being in Russia, lol.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some embassy staff families from the US, UK, Germany & Australia are scooting, France says "please don't go," and airlines are cancelling overnight flight stops.

OP edited 25 Jan to include DEU


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Some embassy staff families from the US, UK & Australia are scooting, France says "please don't go," and airlines are cancelling overnight flight stops.


So those airlines are effectively stopping flights to the Ukraine, are they doing the same for flights to Russia?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> So those airlines are effectively stopping flights to the Ukraine, are they doing the same for flights to Russia?


Don't know, but if I had to bet, their planes would less likely to be trapped in a potential invasion scenario at Sheremetyevo than at some airport in Kyiv should the balloon go up.

Meanwhile, from RUS state media (links to archived version of article):  *"West may stage Ukraine-related provocation ahead of Beijing Olympics — expert"*


----------



## Czech_pivo

And so it begins.
I’m sure our response will be swift and punishing.

Global Affairs Canada suffers ‘cyber attack’ amid Russia-Ukraine tensions: sources​








						Google News
					

Comprehensive up-to-date news coverage, aggregated from sources all over the world by Google News.




					news.google.com


----------



## Good2Golf

The Bread Guy said:


> Don't know, but if I had to bet, their planes would less likely to be trapped in a potential invasion scenario at Sheremetyevo than at some airport in Kyiv should the balloon go up.
> 
> Meanwhile, from RUS state media (links to archived version of article):  *"West may stage Ukraine-related provocation ahead of Beijing Olympics — expert"*


Interesting mention by RUS of potential conflict in the Black Sea, using HMS Defender as an example ‘violating’ Russian (Crimean) territorial waters…when it was confirmed it was AIS-spoofing that created an image of the Type 45 destroyer cruising close to Ukraine’s annexed peninsula.

Preemptive Russian gaslighting of what will actually be Western reactive measures to Russian first aggression.

Love that RUS is saying “the build up of troops on the Ukraine side of the border, helped by Western armament” is a bad thing….but of course RUS/BRS isn’t…


----------



## Czech_pivo

Good2Golf said:


> Interesting mention by RUS of potential conflict in the Black Sea, using HMS Defender as an example ‘violating’ Russian (Crimean) territorial waters…when it was confirmed it was AIS-spoofing that created an image of the Type 45 destroyer cruising close to Ukraine’s annexed peninsula.
> 
> Preemptive Russian gaslighting of what will actually be Western reactive measures to Russian first aggression.
> 
> Love that RUS is saying “the build up of troops on the Ukraine side of the border, helped by Western armament” is a bad thing….but of course RUS/BRS isn’t…


HMCS Montreal should be in the Black Sea in a few days. I hope they have a full weapons load. Also hope that someone has thought ahead and pre-positioned in Constanta a re-supply of arms in case it’s needed.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Czech_pivo said:


> HMCS Montreal should be in the Black Sea in a few days. I hope they have a full weapons load. Also hope that someone has thought ahead and pre-positioned in Constanta a re-supply of arms in case it’s needed.


Actually just did some digging. HMCS Montreal has not left for the Black Sea. Spent the weekend off Halifax doing some training and loading ammunition. Will possibly leave on Tuesday so they won’t be in the Black Sea a week or so.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Czech_pivo said:


> Actually just did some digging. HMCS Montreal has not left for the Black Sea. Spent the weekend off Halifax doing some training and loading ammunition. Will possibly leave on Tuesday so they won’t be in the Black Sea a week or so.



Ship movements used to be pretty secretive things.


----------



## dapaterson

Czech_pivo said:


> And so it begins.
> I’m sure our response will be swift and punishing.
> 
> Global Affairs Canada suffers ‘cyber attack’ amid Russia-Ukraine tensions: sources​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Google News
> 
> 
> Comprehensive up-to-date news coverage, aggregated from sources all over the world by Google News.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.google.com


Cyber attack or systems maintained by SSC?


----------



## Spencer100

Halifax Tar said:


> Ship movements used to be pretty secretive things.


So secret AIS show near Halifax at 9 Kns. 

MarineTraffic: Global Ship Tracking Intelligence | AIS Marine Traffic


----------



## Czech_pivo

Halifax Tar said:


> Ship movements used to be pretty secretive things.


I hate to say it but Twitter......


----------



## CBH99

The Bread Guy said:


> Don't know, but if I had to bet, their planes would less likely to be trapped in a potential invasion scenario at Sheremetyevo than at some airport in Kyiv should the balloon go up.
> 
> Meanwhile, from RUS state media (links to archived version of article):  *"West may stage Ukraine-related provocation ahead of Beijing Olympics — expert"*


Interesting.  I remember someone on this forum, maybe roughly 2 or 3 weeks ago, predicting that Russia would take some form of action around the beginning of the Beijing Olympics…

Seems some strategic thinking minds on both sides were thinking along the same lines.


----------



## Spencer100

This on a different forum made me laugh.  

 "but I bet Ukrainians are now regretting not finding kompromat on Biden when Trump asked for it."


----------



## OldSolduer

Czech_pivo said:


> And so it begins.
> I’m sure our response will be swift and punishing.
> 
> Global Affairs Canada suffers ‘cyber attack’ amid Russia-Ukraine tensions: sources​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Google News
> 
> 
> Comprehensive up-to-date news coverage, aggregated from sources all over the world by Google News.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.google.com


Yes we will send our Foreign Affairs minister to prattle on to Uncle Vlad - he'll gladly stop just to shut her up. 
Uncle Vlad reminds me of someone call Joe, although Vlady hasn't killed millions.....


----------



## GR66

While giving a specific potential timing for an alleged Ukrainian offensive action in the Donbass does sound like laying the ground work for a false flag operation there by Russia, ultimately the claim will turn out to be true.

Unless Ukraine makes the extremely unlikely decision to cede the Donbass to the Russian backed forces without a fight then inevitably they will at some point have to undertake some sort of military action against the rebels.  In effect the Ukrainians have a permanent "provocation" hanging over their heads.  Don't undertake any military actions in the East and the rebels can consolidate their control without opposition.  However if you undertake any military action against the rebels, the Russians can claim it as a "provocation".

It really is a no win situation if Russia really wants to invade.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Spencer100 said:


> So secret AIS show near Halifax at 9 Kns.
> 
> MarineTraffic: Global Ship Tracking Intelligence | AIS Marine Traffic





Czech_pivo said:


> I hate to say it but Twitter......



I think you both missed the passed tense in my speech


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Halifax Tar said:


> Ship movements used to be pretty secretive things.


The CAF got some real good tradecraft these days 😁

My personal opinion is warships should never be sailing around with AIS set to transmit but that's just me.


----------



## Czech_pivo

GR66 said:


> While giving a specific potential timing for an alleged Ukrainian offensive action in the Donbass does sound like laying the ground work for a false flag operation there by Russia, ultimately the claim will turn out to be true.
> 
> Unless Ukraine makes the extremely unlikely decision to cede the Donbass to the Russian backed forces without a fight then inevitably they will at some point have to undertake some sort of military action against the rebels.  In effect the Ukrainians have a permanent "provocation" hanging over their heads.  Don't undertake any military actions in the East and the rebels can consolidate their control without opposition.  However if you undertake any military action against the rebels, the Russians can claim it as a "provocation".
> 
> It really is a no win situation if Russia really wants to invade.


And along those exact same lines, forget about getting the Krim back.....its now officially part of the Rodina.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Humphrey Bogart said:


> The CAF got some real good tradecraft these days 😁
> 
> My personal opinion is warships should never be sailing around with AIS set to transmit but that's just me.



I'm with you.


----------



## The Bread Guy

GR66 said:


> ... Unless Ukraine makes the extremely unlikely decision to cede the Donbass to the Russian backed forces without a fight then inevitably they will at some point have to undertake some sort of military action against the rebels ...


And all it would take is a hot head or two to go bang bang, and we're off ....


----------



## MilEME09

Meanwhile American law makers trying yo speed up tanks to Poland









						Lawmakers ask Austin to rush Abrams sale to Poland
					

Top Republicans on Monday made a push to accelerate Washington’s proposed sale of 250 M1A2 Abrams tanks to NATO-ally Poland, which has been pending since last summer, in light of the escalating crisis with Russia.




					news.yahoo.com
				




And as usual our government has more commitment issues than a reservist.....









						Canada suggests non-essential Canadians leave Ukraine
					

As other countries begin to withdraw embassy and diplomatic staff from Ukraine over heightened concerns of a Russian invasion, Canada is suggesting any non-essential Canadians should leave.



					www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## The Bread Guy

Back here @ home ...


> Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s cabinet is weighing whether to ship small weapons like firearms and ammunition to Ukraine at the three-day virtual retreat underway now, sources tell Global News.
> 
> According to the sources, who spoke on background as they are not authorized to discuss the proposal publicly, the federal cabinet will be asked to decide on the possible shipment of the small weapons along with the potential for increased military capabilities support for Ukraine from the Canadian Forces.
> 
> That could include countering cyberattacks or increased intelligence sharing, the sources said. They added the weaponry being considered includes pistols, rifles, sniper rifles, machine guns and ammunition.
> 
> Trudeau is expected to make an announcement after the cabinet retreat ends on Wednesday ...


We'll see ...


----------



## Navy_Pete

Humphrey Bogart said:


> The CAF got some real good tradecraft these days 😁
> 
> My personal opinion is warships should never be sailing around with AIS set to transmit but that's just me.


Even without AIS on it doesn't matter anymore in terms of identifying the ship. Our movements through the Bosphorous straight were being live blogged in 2015, and this was during the attempted coup in Turkey so was already a bit nervous. Even with AIS off a lot of high traffic ships get tagged anyway (maybe fed from QHM?) so, sure outside coastal waters or somewhere similar makes sense limiting the detection range, but anyone with satellite coverage can follow ships in real time, and in places like the Med, good luck.

When ship wifi ECs take priority over safety ones, I stop thinking we'll bother taking EMSEC seriously. We may as well go the opposite way and pose as a cruise ship with some deceptive lighting and be extra noisy. But then we'd have to at least meet SOLAS, so even that would be a lie.


----------



## Kilted

The Bread Guy said:


> Back here @ home ...
> 
> We'll see ...


I'm kind of worried that our government may decide to do nothing regardless of what happens and what everyone else does.


----------



## dimsum

dapaterson said:


> Cyber attack or systems maintained by SSC?


And here I was thinking it was just Monday.


----------



## Spencer100

The Bread Guy said:


> Back here @ home ...
> 
> We'll see ...


In all reality how much is there to send from Canada's inventory?  Warstock?  Or would be more of a case of buying weapons and ammunition on the open market and shipping it?  Did we not send the old C7's to the Afgan Army? (Although I do remember their was a problem about compatability or something?)  

And with the world as it is right now should we not keep our powder dry so to speak?


----------



## MilEME09

What is Canada's obligation under NATO in the face of the Ukraine-Russia crisis?
					

In the face of the ongoing Ukraine-Russia crisis, NATO has played a prominent role in attempting to quell further escalations between Russia and the West. CTVNews.ca looks at what Canada’s obligations are to Ukraine as a member of NATO.



					www.ctvnews.ca
				




Translation we can do nothing that matters


----------



## daftandbarmy

Spencer100 said:


> In all reality how much is there to send from Canada's inventory?  Warstock?  Or would be more of a case of buying weapons and ammunition on the open market and shipping it?  Did we not send the old C7's to the Afgan Army? (Although I do remember their was a problem about compatability or something?)
> 
> And with the world as it is right now should we not keep our powder dry so to speak?



It's OK. We know a guy...


----------



## FJAG

😁


----------



## daftandbarmy

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/justin-trudeau-under-fire-for-ukraine-joke-1.2549392


----------



## Dana381

Actually not a bad idea, lets settle this David and Goliath style. Best of seven tournament Russia vs Canada. Russia wins and they get Ukraine, Canada wins and Russia leaves Ukraine alone!  Think Putin would go for it?


----------



## OldSolduer

The Bread Guy said:


> And all it would take is a hot head or two to go bang bang, and we're off ....


Like an assassination of a foreign dignitary.....


----------



## MilEME09

OldSolduer said:


> Like an assassination of a foreign dignitary.....


Or a NATO aircraft getting shot down


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> Or a NATO aircraft getting shot down


HMCS Montreal will arrive just before the Olympics start, not the best timing. Wonder if it’s possible for one of her sister ships to sail with her. Also, not possible for Windsor or Corner Brook to pass through the Straits, correct?
Having just 16 anti-air missiles is not the greatest….


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> HMCS Montreal will arrive just before the Olympics start, not the best timing. Wonder if it’s possible for one of her sister ships to sail with her. Also, not possible for Windsor or Corner Brook to pass through the Straits, correct?
> Having just 16 anti-air missiles is not the greatest….


Dial 911 or the USAF…
  There are a lot of eager F-22 and F-35 pilots who want to be the first aces in those birds.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Looking at other stuff and found this from *May 2018* - still an option?


> Andrew Scheer's Conservatives want the federal government to give Ukraine $9.5 million worth of military equipment originally intended to help Kurdish forces in their fight against Islamic militants in Iraq.
> 
> The Trudeau government announced (May 2017) that it would give the Kurds weapons - including rifles, machine-guns, light mortars, grenade launchers and anti-tank missiles - as part of Canada's revamped mission to help eradicate the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.
> 
> But there were delays in getting approvals from the Iraqi government, and in ensuring adequate safeguards were in place to prevent the weapons from winding up in the hands of paramilitary groups accused of committing war crimes in Iraq.
> 
> By the time the weapons were finally purchased late (2017)  , Iraqi and Kurdish forces had turned on each other over the Kurds' renewed push to carve out an independent state in northern Iraq.
> 
> To this day, those weapons remain in storage at a Canadian Forces supply depot in Montreal ...


----------



## Halifax Tar

Czech_pivo said:


> HMCS Montreal will arrive just before the Olympics start, not the best timing. Wonder if it’s possible for one of her sister ships to sail with her. Also, not possible for Windsor or Corner Brook to pass through the Straits, correct?
> Having just 16 anti-air missiles is not the greatest….



No one will last a long time in the Black Sea if Russia would rather see you as a reef. 

Like our BG in Latvia, they're a trip wire.


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Looking at other stuff and found this from *May 2018* - still an option?


‘In Montreal’……and where did I see that nice big Antonov fly out of last week…..Montreal.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Flight out of Dover Delaware to Kiev









						CMB314 U.S. Transportation Command Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware
					

Track U.S. Transportation Command  #314 flight from Travis Afb to Rzeszow/Jasionka




					flightaware.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

OldSolduer said:


> Like an assassination of a foreign dignitary.....


I was thinking more of some tired, pissed-off troop on the front lines, but that'll more than do, for sure.


----------



## calculus

Rumours of Canada supplying weapons from some cache that was apparently set aside for the Kurds, but not delivered:






						Canada could provide small arms and anti-tank weapons to Ukraine | Defense News January 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year
					

Canada could provide small arms and anti-tank weapons to Ukraine which were planned to be delivered to the Kurds in 2016.




					www.armyrecognition.com


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> Or a NATO aircraft getting shot down


I have a nagging feeling about a USN P-8…hope
I’m not clairvoyant.


----------



## MilEME09

Good2Golf said:


> I have a nagging feeling about a USN P-8…hope
> I’m not clairvoyant.


If you are, expect a pm about lottery numbers


----------



## Czech_pivo

calculus said:


> Rumours of Canada supplying weapons from some cache that was apparently set aside for the Kurds, but not delivered:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada could provide small arms and anti-tank weapons to Ukraine | Defense News January 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year
> 
> 
> Canada could provide small arms and anti-tank weapons to Ukraine which were planned to be delivered to the Kurds in 2016.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.armyrecognition.com


I noted last week that a Ukrainian Antonov left Montreal very early in the morning (like around 1:30am est) to Kiev.

I'm totally speculating here but that equipment could also be very welcomed by the BG in Latvia as added re-supply munitions as well, if they pull the 200 +/- troops from Unifier and re-position them into Latvia as a strengthening measure to the BG, this equipment would easily be used for those troops. Total speculation on my part.  The Commander of the BG in Latvia was talking about last week the need to lay in extra supplies and for an additional communication gear.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Less than 24hrs after Trudeau said they were staying put.

Canada orders diplomats' families to leave Ukraine​








						Google News
					

Comprehensive up-to-date news coverage, aggregated from sources all over the world by Google News.




					news.google.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Handy, this ....


----------



## MJP

Czech_pivo said:


> I noted last week that a Ukrainian Antonov left Montreal very early in the morning (like around 1:30am est) to Kiev.
> 
> I'm totally speculating here but that equipment could also be very welcomed by the BG in Latvia as added re-supply munitions as well, if they pull the 200 +/- troops from Unifier and re-position them into Latvia as a strengthening measure to the BG, this equipment would easily be used for those troops. Total speculation on my part.  The Commander of the BG in Latvia was talking about last week the need to lay in extra supplies and for an additional communication gear.


While more good comms gesr is always welcome, he was more likely referring to communication within the BG between the various countries tactically.  Something that has been a struggle since the BG inception


----------



## The Bread Guy

Evolution of NATO member Croatia's position ...

17 Jan:  *"Croatia FM: Good Relations with Ukraine Don't Rule Out Good Relations with Russia"*
19 Jan:  *"PM Says Croatia to Respond "Clearly and Resolutely" if Russia Attacks Ukraine" *
25 Jan:  *Croatian President Zoran Milanovic**:  "NATO is stepping up its presence, we don't have to do anything about it, nor will we have anything. If there is an escalation, we will withdraw our troops to the last Croatian soldier. It has nothing to do with Ukraine, but with Biden's policy, I see inconsistency and dangerous behavior. There are ways to save Ukraine, at least 99 percent, to help it economically ..."*
25 Jan (links to archive of RUS state media article):  _"The Croatian authorities will recall all troops from NATO forces in eastern Europe in case of a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, President Zoran Milanovic said on television on Tuesday.  "As the commander-in-chief I have been closely following statements indicating that NATO - not one country, not the United States - is building up its presence and sending some reconnaissance ships. __*We do not have any bearing on this and we will not have anything to do with this. I guarantee this," Milanovic said.  "Croatia will not send any troops in case of an escalation. On the contrary, it will recall all troops, to the last Croatian soldier,"*__ ..."_


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Evolution of NATO member Croatia's position ...
> 
> 17 Jan:  *"Croatia FM: Good Relations with Ukraine Don't Rule Out Good Relations with Russia"*
> 19 Jan: *"PM Says Croatia to Respond "Clearly and Resolutely" if Russia Attacks Ukraine" *
> 25 Jan:  *Croatian President Zoran Milanovic**:  "NATO is stepping up its presence, we don't have to do anything about it, nor will we have anything. If there is an escalation, we will withdraw our troops to the last Croatian soldier. It has nothing to do with Ukraine, but with Biden's policy, I see inconsistency and dangerous behavior. There are ways to save Ukraine, at least 99 percent, to help it economically ..."*
> 25 Jan (links to archive of RUS state media article):  _"The Croatian authorities will recall all troops from NATO forces in eastern Europe in case of a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, President Zoran Milanovic said on television on Tuesday.  "As the commander-in-chief I have been closely following statements indicating that NATO - not one country, not the United States - is building up its presence and sending some reconnaissance ships. __*We do not have any bearing on this and we will not have anything to do with this. I guarantee this," Milanovic said.  "Croatia will not send any troops in case of an escalation. On the contrary, it will recall all troops, to the last Croatian soldier,"*__ ..."_


Someone’s afraid of Russians not coming this summer to the Croatian coast and spending their money.


----------



## Fabius

The personnel deployed under Op UNIFIER have almost zero combat capability. Op UNIFIER is a capacity building mission and the TF is structured as such. Very few junior ranks and those are mostly the support trade types. Most of the force is composed on NCOs and mid level officers across a huge number of trades. 
Could its personnel be armed and conduct point security tasks sure but that's a waste of time and effort. Deploying a Infantry Coy is easier and more efficient and effective if your looking for a formed sub unit. Now if your plugging in personnel to the eFP to bulk up the staffs and round out the platoons it could be done and might be a good fit for 50-75% of the Op UNIFIER personnel.

I honestly doubt we would do any of that though.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Fabius said:


> The personnel deployed under Op UNIFIER have almost zero combat capability. Op UNIFIER is a capacity building mission and the TF is structured as such. Very few junior ranks and those are mostly the support trade types. Most of the force is composed on NCOs and mid level officers across a huge number of trades.
> Could its personnel be armed and conduct point security tasks sure but that's a waste of time and effort. Deploying a Infantry Coy is easier and more efficient and effective if your looking for a formed sub unit. Now if your plugging in personnel to the eFP to bulk up the staffs and round out the platoons it could be done and might be a good fit for 50-75% of the Op UNIFIER personnel.
> 
> I honestly doubt we would do any of that though.


Thanks for the analysis on this.


----------



## Booter

The Bread Guy said:


> I was thinking more of some tired, pissed-off troop on the front lines, but that'll more than do, for sure.


I believe “separatists” and Ukrainian forces have been having skirmishes for years now- and known Russian actors have been killed. The death toll since 2014 has been like 14000. Lots of soldiers and contractors in there.

Maybe it would be different now. I’m not sure anyone on either side is really ready to jump off in a peer conflict. 

But I’m like you. Just watching and guessing. With great interest


----------



## The Bread Guy

Booter said:


> ... I’m not sure anyone on either side is really ready to jump off in a peer conflict ...


True, on an individual basis, but I know who I'd bet on blowing an ND incident up into an "incursion/provocation" scenario for external consumption.

Meanwhile, some US legislators are headed over to take a peek ...


----------



## Underway

Czech_pivo said:


> Someone’s afraid of Russians not coming this summer to the Croatian coast and spending their money.


Or Serbia siding with Russia.


----------



## Kilted

Underway said:


> Or Serbia siding with Russia.


Didn't that go badly for everyone that one time?


----------



## KevinB

What Putin wants in the Ukraine standoff — and how he could get it
					

The Russian president has massed an estimated 100,000 troops on Ukraine's border. NBC News looks at what he might want from the standoff and how he could be planning to get it.




					www.nbcnews.com
				












						Ukrainian leaders: Stay calm, Russian invasion not imminent
					

Ukraine’s leaders are seeking to reassure the nation that a feared invasion from neighboring Russia is not imminent




					abcnews.go.com
				












						Anxiety in Ukraine as NATO, U.S. and Russia bolster forces and accuse each other of pushing toward war
					

A Russian lawmaker warned that Moscow would "respond appropriately" to any more U.S. troops arriving in countries near its western border.




					www.cbsnews.com
				




I'm wondering if they had the internet in 1913/14 would it have been a similar tale.


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> What Putin wants in the Ukraine standoff — and how he could get it
> 
> 
> The Russian president has massed an estimated 100,000 troops on Ukraine's border. NBC News looks at what he might want from the standoff and how he could be planning to get it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nbcnews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian leaders: Stay calm, Russian invasion not imminent
> 
> 
> Ukraine’s leaders are seeking to reassure the nation that a feared invasion from neighboring Russia is not imminent
> 
> 
> 
> 
> abcnews.go.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Anxiety in Ukraine as NATO, U.S. and Russia bolster forces and accuse each other of pushing toward war
> 
> 
> A Russian lawmaker warned that Moscow would "respond appropriately" to any more U.S. troops arriving in countries near its western border.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cbsnews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I'm wondering if they had the internet in 1913/14 would it have been a similar tale.


Na we would just have tik toks of the Kaiser doing dumb stuff.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Underway said:


> Or Serbia siding with Russia.


Like they've stopped recently or something?


----------



## The Bread Guy

NATO's boss to CNN ...


> NATO will send a written proposal to the Kremlin later this week to "try to find a way forward" amid growing tensions over Russia's troop build-up on Ukraine's border, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told CNN's Christiane Amanpour on Tuesday.
> 
> "We will outline that we are ready to sit down ... and discuss arms control, disarmament, transparency on military activities, risk reduction mechanisms, and other issues which are relevant for European security. And also to sit down and listen to Russian concerns," Stoltenberg said.
> 
> (...)
> 
> "NATO will not deploy NATO combat troops to Ukraine, but we need to be sure that there is no misunderstanding about our readiness, our commitment to defend all allies, especially in the eastern part of the alliance," Stoltenberg told CNN, explaining that was why the alliance had increased its presence in the eastern part of the alliance, in the Black Sea and Baltic regions ...


----------



## Underway

The Bread Guy said:


> Like they've stopped recently or something?


I was more referring to how Croatia needs to be concerned with their own security and geopolitics.  Helping NATO in Ukraine may be more friction with Serbia then they want to deal with.


----------



## OldSolduer

One of the techniques the Jerries used to give them an excuse to invade Poland was the use of "Poles" (nudge nudge wink wink) to attack ethnic Germans who lived in or near Poland. Of course the Fatherland would come to their rescue. 

I read this somewhere - can't recall where.


----------



## JLB50

Are you referring to the “Gleiwitz Incident” in which Germans took some Germans who were against Hitler, dressed them up in Polish uniforms, drugged them, raided a radio station on the German side, then shot the so-called Poles and claimed that it was the Poles who started WW2?


----------



## Jarnhamar

Does NATO actually have a leg to stand on? Ukraine isn't a part of NATO.


----------



## MilEME09

Jarnhamar said:


> Does NATO actually have a leg to stand on? Ukraine isn't a part of NATO.


Only nato trainers are killed, or NATO sets a red line, and actually stands by it.


----------



## KevinB

Jarnhamar said:


> Does NATO actually have a leg to stand on? Ukraine isn't a part of NATO.


As mentioned earlier - NATO can invoke Article 5 for attacks off National soil.
   NATO can come out and say - we will defend the Ukraine, and invoke Article 5 if Russian forces cross openly into new parts of the Ukraine.

However the table or chair is only as stable as its weakest leg - and very few of the legs at the NATO table want to dig into the Ukraine.

The gray area comes about if/when NATO forces get attacked while doing something like interdicting Russian air  - which leads one to believe the Russians won't use a lot of air - because Missiles are cheap and pilots and planes aren't...
    What NATO decided to enforce for a No Fly Zone will obviously play into that - as well as what NATO Long Range Fires may do in support of the Ukraine (or Ukraine Forces using loaned NATO items).

Even more problematic for NATO is that the membership is quite divided on what the Alliances role should be in assisting the Ukraine (if any).

 So if for instance the UK/US/FR etc forces where to become embroiled in a scuffle conducting No Fly Zone operations - what would the reluctant NATO side do (GER is the biggest example) IF one of those Nations decided that a Russian attack on its Aircraft/Airfield/or Ship was enough to go for an Article 5...

   Honestly I think that unknown is about the only thing hold Vlad back for the moment - and why I think the Russians will have a semi-limited incursion when they do go - is simply what happens if NATO decided F this guy - I mean for all of NATO fighting in Ukraine and Belarus is kind of a win - because its those countries and Russia that take the biggest pounding, assuming it stays in a limited conventional conflict.
  For those who feel like a showdown with Russia is inevitable - the best place to do it is there, and not on your own lawn - the Poles, and even Germany have that feeling - even if the Germans aren't sure that it is inevitable.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> As mentioned earlier - NATO can invoke Article 5 for attacks off National soil.
> NATO can come out and say - we will defend the Ukraine, and invoke Article 5 if Russian forces cross openly into new parts of the Ukraine.
> 
> However the table or chair is only as stable as its weakest leg - and very few of the legs at the NATO table want to dig into the Ukraine.
> 
> The gray area comes about if/when NATO forces get attacked while doing something like interdicting Russian air  - which leads one to believe the Russians won't use a lot of air - because Missiles are cheap and pilots and planes aren't...
> What NATO decided to enforce for a No Fly Zone will obviously play into that - as well as what NATO Long Range Fires may do in support of the Ukraine (or Ukraine Forces using loaned NATO items).
> 
> Even more problematic for NATO is that the membership is quite divided on what the Alliances role should be in assisting the Ukraine (if any).
> 
> So if for instance the UK/US/FR etc forces where to become embroiled in a scuffle conducting No Fly Zone operations - what would the reluctant NATO side do (GER is the biggest example) IF one of those Nations decided that a Russian attack on its Aircraft/Airfield/or Ship was enough to go for an Article 5...
> 
> Honestly I think that unknown is about the only thing hold Vlad back for the moment - and why I think the Russians will have a semi-limited incursion when they do go - is simply what happens if NATO decided F this guy - I mean for all of NATO fighting in Ukraine and Belarus is kind of a win - because its those countries and Russia that take the biggest pounding, assuming it stays in a limited conventional conflict.
> For those who feel like a showdown with Russia is inevitable - the best place to do it is there, and not on your own lawn - the Poles, and even Germany have that feeling - even if the Germans aren't sure that it is inevitable.


Germans look to the Poles as their buffer between them and the Russians, whereas the Poles look to the Ukrainians as their buffer to the Russians.  The same, to a less extent as the Slovaks, Hungarians and Romanians, the Ukrainians are their buffer to the Russians, none of them want to share a border with the Russians again.

If the Poles ever 'went down', the Germans would be re-arming and 'asking' for more US troops to be present again on German soil.  To an extent, its a 'game' of distance, the further you are from the Russian border, the less worried you are up until the point when your border is suddenly up against the Ivans.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> Germans look to the Poles as their buffer between them and the Russians, whereas the Poles look to the Ukrainians as their buffer to the Russians.  The same, to a less extent as the Slovaks, Hungarians and Romanians, the Ukrainians are their buffer to the Russians, none of them want to share a border with the Russians again.
> 
> If the Poles ever 'went down', the Germans would be re-arming and 'asking' for more US troops to be present again on German soil.  To an extent, its a 'game' of distance, the further you are from the Russian border, the less worried you are up until the point when your border is suddenly up against the Ivans.


I really don't expect Russia to attack any member of NATO. 

Even the Baltics. 

But any nation outside of NATO that is a thorn in Russias side I believe is fair game, with the next obvious target being Finland.


----------



## MilEME09

NATO could drop a BG in Kiev, essentially lock it down as a NATO protected area, which would prevent regime change.


----------



## ringo

NATO should deploy at least 4 divisions in Ukraine west of the Dnieper, enable Ukraine to redeploy there forces to border with Russia.

None of are leaders have the balls or brains to do it.


----------



## Czech_pivo

ringo said:


> NATO should deploy at least 4 divisions in Ukraine west of the Dnieper, enable Ukraine to redeploy there forces to border with Russia.
> 
> None of are leaders have the balls or brains to do it.


We’d need a fair amount of air cover to be included….along with some arty.


----------



## Underway

ringo said:


> NATO should deploy at least 4 divisions in Ukraine west of the Dnieper, enable Ukraine to redeploy there forces to border with Russia.
> 
> None of are leaders have the balls or brains to do it.


None of them are stupid enough to do this.  That would be idiotic.  Ukraine is a disposable piece that is not critical to any core NATO countries defense and the US certainly isn't going to get involved in a shooting war for a disposable geopolitical piece now that the Soviet threat is gone.

And where the US goes NATO goes.


----------



## MilEME09

Courtesy of Jane's.



> Estimates indicate there is equipment for 50–65 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) in regions bordering Ukraine in both Russia and Belarus. Around half of these are drawn from units permanently deployed within 250 km of the border, with the remainder having been deployed during the spring or the more substantial October build-up. The Russian MoD claims Russia has 168 permanent-readiness BTGs, indicating around a third of them are now stationed near the Ukrainian border. The ground forces units with equipment deployed around the border do not appear to be accompanied by the requisite number of troops required to operate all the equipment present. There are indicators that Russia has begun deploying troops to these garrisons. Unverified footage appearing on social media over the weekend of 15–16 January indicated the potential deployment of Russian troops from the Kemerovo region, which houses two units that have forward-deployed equipment to the Yelnya garrison: the 74th Motorised Brigade and the 120th Artillery Brigade. Subsequent satellite imagery of the camp captured on 19 January indicated a rise in personnel at the camp corresponding with this potential deployment. Some tents appeared to have had heating units turned on, melting the snow on their roofs, while the ground around the tents had been turned into a muddy slush indicating heavy footfall. Although Russia has activated some troops, it is still required to move a significant number to the camps; it is likely that this could be accomplished within around 72 hours, if required. Final indicators of military action would likely include the activation of the Russian Airborne Forces, military airlift, and the large-scale deployment of air assets to forward airbases.



In other words they preposition most of the kit but need 72 hours to get all the needed troops to the gear.


----------



## Underway

Lets be real here.  This move by Russia is entirely based on their own defense situation, not Putin's ego (he's far too much a calculating realist), and not a wish to return to Soviet times, and not for domestic popularity approvals.

Russia is facing a demographic cliff.  In the next 10 years, their conscripting age demographic will be half what it is now.  This means the Russian army will be half the number it is now.

This has driven a number of things, new armoured tech for smaller crew sizes, drones, asymetric warfare research, etc...

But the thing it has driven the most is Russia's aggressive stance on areas where it is normally invaded.  Russia's borders will be undefendable if the army goes to half strength.  But maybe if smart you can plug those gaps. This is literally the strategy that Russia has used since the Tzar's.  Every single Russian leader can read a map.



Northern invasion route: Plug this gap using submarines and naval assets.  Even Canada has invaded Russia this way during the Revolution.
Baltic Route: Tricky now that NATO has assets there and the Baltic states are part of NATO.
Northern European Plain: Use Belarussia as a friendly state to help give you buffer space from invasions this way. Ukraine is along this route to the south and provides for flanking of potential invasions.
Southern European Plain south of the Carpathian Mountains: this goes through Ukraine directly and Crimea is along this route as well.
Eastern invasion route: Space, winter, time.  Keep the states that are out in this direction weak or bought off.
The Russians know that Ukraine as a NATO ally would be a security disaster for them.  NATO countries backed the Orange Revolution which overturned the legally elected Pro-Russian government.  Seeing the writing on the wall Russia took Crimea (which was only Ukrainian because of Stalin's politicking, it never was before) and broke Ukraine so it won't be a threat and can't join NATO using the same tactics they did in Georgia and South Ossetia.

A broken Ukraine is now a liability for NATO and the US, and a chip to be bargained for.  If Russia can create even more territory in the Ukraine it will significantly increase their security and reduce the demands on their military manpower.

From Canada and the US's security perspective, Ukraine is irrelevant except on a check to Russian power, which since they are not threatening to overturn the world order is a European problem.  Back to great power competition, the US is looking for a nice way to make a deal, make Biden look good (to contrast to the pro Putin Trump) and cost them nothing.  Europe is probably pushing for more direct interventions (as is Turkey).  

Canada as normal will try to look tough for the people who live here that think they are Ukrainian (because their Grandma was and they like perogies and playing euchre, even though they don't know a single person who lives in Ukraine) for the votes but really do nothing.


----------



## MilEME09

Underway said:


> Lets be real here.  This move by Russia is entirely based on their own defense situation, not Putin's ego (he's far too much a calculating realist), and not a wish to return to Soviet times, and not for domestic popularity approvals.
> 
> Russia is facing a demographic cliff.  In the next 10 years, their conscripting age demographic will be half what it is now.  This means the Russian army will be half the number it is now.
> 
> This has driven a number of things, new armoured tech for smaller crew sizes, drones, asymetric warfare research, etc...
> 
> But the thing it has driven the most is Russia's aggressive stance on areas where it is normally invaded.  Russia's borders will be undefendable if the army goes to half strength.  But maybe if smart you can plug those gaps. This is literally the strategy that Russia has used since the Tzar's.  Every single Russian leader can read a map.
> 
> View attachment 68242
> 
> Northern invasion route: Plug this gap using submarines and naval assets.  Even Canada has invaded Russia this way during the Revolution.
> Baltic Route: Tricky now that NATO has assets there and the Baltic states are part of NATO.
> Northern European Plain: Use Belarussia as a friendly state to help give you buffer space from invasions this way. Ukraine is along this route to the south and provides for flanking of potential invasions.
> Southern European Plain south of the Carpathian Mountains: this goes through Ukraine directly and Crimea is along this route as well.
> Eastern invasion route: Space, winter, time.  Keep the states that are out in this direction weak or bought off.
> The Russians know that Ukraine as a NATO ally would be a security disaster for them.  NATO countries backed the Orange Revolution which overturned the legally elected Pro-Russian government.  Seeing the writing on the wall Russia took Crimea (which was only Ukrainian because of Stalin's politicking, it never was before) and broke Ukraine so it won't be a threat and can't join NATO using the same tactics they did in Georgia and South Ossetia.
> 
> A broken Ukraine is now a liability for NATO and the US, and a chip to be bargained for.  If Russia can create even more territory in the Ukraine it will significantly increase their security and reduce the demands on their military manpower.


Then the move to back Russia into a corner is to cater to Finland, and get them into NATO, Exposing Russian northern flank and locking down the Baltics. They would be in just as bad of a situation as if Georgia or Ukraine joined NATO, actually I'd argue worse because Finland has actually maintained funding for its military.


----------



## Underway

MilEME09 said:


> Then the move to back Russia into a corner is to cater to Finland, and get them into NATO, Exposing Russian northern flank and locking down the Baltics. They would be in just as bad of a situation as if Georgia or Ukraine joined NATO, actually I'd argue worse because Finland has actually maintained funding for its military.


As a chess move for sure, assuming Russia is the bad guy here.  Are there bad guys in geopolitics? Or only interests?

Sweden and Finland are both considering joining NATO I read somewhere.  Not sure what will come of that, but surely that is a terrible thing for Russia and would only serve to heighten their concern.  Do you want Russia feeling cornered or is it better for Russia to feel secure?

I'm of the opinion that NATO is already too big and that we can't contain the internal competing geopolitical friction much longer (see Turkey).


----------



## Altair

Underway said:


> None of them are stupid enough to do this.  That would be idiotic.  Ukraine is a disposable piece that is not critical to any core NATO countries defense and the US certainly isn't going to get involved in a shooting war for a disposable geopolitical piece now that the Soviet threat is gone.
> 
> And where the US goes NATO goes.


Yup. 

NATO is the illusion of collective defense, with collective decision making, but if Washington isn't backing something NATO isn't going to do it. And NATO members wont do anything either, individually.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> Then the move to back Russia into a corner is to cater to Finland, and get them into NATO, Exposing Russian northern flank and locking down the Baltics. They would be in just as bad of a situation as if Georgia or Ukraine joined NATO, actually I'd argue worse because Finland has actually maintained funding for its military.


Two things. 

First, Finland has to want to join NATO. If Finland comes out and says that they will never join NATO, or host NATO troops, then there is a good chance Russia leaves them alone. 


Secondly, if they do otherwise, there is a good chance Russia sweeps in before Finland can be accepted. If you're Finland, do you risk your country on NATO bureaucracy?


----------



## Underway

Altair said:


> Yup.
> 
> NATO is the illusion of collective defense, with collective decision making, but if Washington isn't backing something NATO isn't going to do it. And NATO members wont do anything either, individually.


Not only that, without US logistic support NATO can barely deploy from Europe to Africa (demonstrated by the Mali effort).


----------



## Spencer100

Underway said:


> None of them are stupid enough to do this.  That would be idiotic.  Ukraine is a disposable piece that is not critical to any core NATO countries defense and the US certainly isn't going to get involved in a shooting war for a disposable geopolitical piece now that the Soviet threat is gone.
> 
> And where the US goes NATO goes.


Biden is in no position to lead the US into war.  First the US is very war weary and second Biden has no credibility with the electorate.  His poll numbers are in the toilet worst than his predecessor.  I don't think a wag the dog moment will work either.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Finally.... disarming one of Russia's economic weapons:


US finalizing plans to divert gas to Europe if Russia cuts off supply​

The US has helped prepare for the diversion of natural gas supplies from around the world to Europe in the event that the flow from Russia is cut, in an effort to blunt Vladimir Putin’s most powerful economic weapon.


As fears of an invasion of Ukraine have grown, US officials said on Tuesday that they had been negotiating with global suppliers, and they were now confident that Europe would not suffer from a sudden loss of energy for heating in the middle of winter.

“To ensure Europe is able to make it through the winter and spring we expect to be prepared to ensure alternative supplies covering a significant majority of the potential shortfall,” a senior official said.

The preparation for bulk gas supplies deliveries is part of a campaign by the US and its European allies to show a united and coherent front to Putin in the hope of deterring him from invading Ukraine. Joe Biden said on Tuesday he would consider imposing personal sanctions on the Russian president himself.

If Russia attacked, Biden said, it would be the “largest invasion since World War Two” and would “change the world”.

Boris Johnson hinted that Germany was concerned about the imposition of sanctions against Russia because of its dependence on Russian gas and told MPs diplomatic efforts were being made to persuade Berlin and others to go further.

The British prime minister said that “European friends” had concerns about imposing the toughest possible sanctions on Moscow because of their “heavy dependence” on Russian gas – and also declared the UK would be willing to deploy more troops to eastern Europe if Ukraine was attacked.

His comments came as the French president, Emmanuel Macron, and Olaf Scholz, the new German chancellor, met in Berlin on Tuesday to coordinate their stances, after reports of rifts among the allies.

Macron said he was due to speak by phone to Putin on Friday, to “clarify” the Russian position. He said France and Germany would never abandon dialogue with Russia, but added: “If there is aggression, there will be retaliation and the cost will be very high.”

The Kremlin’s deputy chief of staff, Dmitry Kozak, is due in Paris on Tuesday for talks with political advisers from Ukraine, France and Germany, in a continued effort to keep talks going, with an estimated 130,000 Russian troops now massed around Ukrainian borders.

The Russian military announced it would carry out a new set of military exercises involving 6,000 troops near the Ukrainian border, and within Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula Moscow annexed in 2014. The drills will include exercises with live ammunition and feature fighter jets, bombers, anti-aircraft systems and vessels from Russia’s Black Sea and Caspian fleets, according to the defence ministry.

With the likelihood of war constantly rising, a senior US administration official claimed the convergence between the US and the EU on financial sanctions was “remarkable”, and the impact on Russia of the combined punitive measures would be far greater than the response to the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea.

“The gradualism of the past is out, and this time we’ll start at the top of the escalation ladder and stay there,” the official said.

Russia has already restricted the flow of natural gas through the pipeline running through Ukraine from about about 100m cubic metres a day to 50 MCM, US officials said. Washington now estimates that almost all of that can be replaced quickly if the pipeline is cut deliberately or as a result of conflict.

Fears that Putin would cut off gas supplies have made some European countries, such as Germany, wary of imposing sanctions on Putin if he proceeds with an invasion. The Biden administration also insists that US and European financial sanctions plans are converging, and that the US is preparing export controls on western technology which would cripple Putin’s efforts to diversify his economy.

One of the main alternative gas suppliers is Qatar, and it was announced on Tuesday that the emir, Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani would visit the White House at the end of the month with the “stability of global energy supplies” on the agenda. But the administration said its outreach was global.

“The conversation is really broad, with a lot of companies and countries around the world. It’s not centered on one or two suppliers,” an official said. “And by doing that you don’t need to ask any one individual company or country to surge exports by significant volumes, but rather smaller volumes from a multitude of sources.”

If gas were to be diverted to Europe it would largely have to be in the form of liquified natural gas (LNG), but at present the entire global market in LNG would not be sufficient to make up the shortfall if Russia cut off the gas supply through Ukraine to Europe.

The US also said it was preparing restrictions on exports to Russia of hi-tech software and hardware made by the US and its allies. Officials said the measures would affect Russian ambitions in the fields of aerospace, defence, lasers and sensitive, maritime technology, artificial intelligence and quantum computers.

“When we pick these sectors, it’s quite deliberate,” an official said. “These are sectors that Putin himself has, has championed, as the way forward for Russia to diversify its economy beyond oil and gas. And so that would lead to an atrophying of Russia’s productive capacity over time.”

Meanwhile, the flow of arms to Ukraine has accelerated. US officials confirmed that a plane carrying hundreds of anti-tank Javelin missiles had arrived in Kyiv, and a shipment of more Javelins is ready to go from Estonia.

“On the Javelins, this is decided and we have the endorsement from the US, so it’s just a matter of time when we’re going to send them out,” an Estonian official said, adding they would be sent “as soon as possible”.

The Estonian government also intends to sent Ukraine howitzer guns but is still waiting on approval from Germany, where the guns originated and Finland which supplied some of the guns to Estonia.

“With the howitzers, we don’t have an official answer from the Germans nor the Finns. So as far as we don’t have these, we cannot say if it’s going to be a yes or no. We are going to wait for it,” the official said. A joint German-Estonia delivery of field hospitals, planned last summer, is due to go ahead in the next few weeks.

Latvia and Lithuania are supplying Stinger anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine. The UK has sent 2,000 anti-tank missiles and Saxon armoured cars, and Turkey has supplied Bayraktar drones.

The US has put 8,500 troops on heightened alert for deployment to eastern Europe in a move intended to reassure Nato members in the region that Washington is committed to their defence. US officials indicated to Fox News that elite troops from the 101st and 82nd Airborne Divisions were among the troops on standby.

Ukraine is not a Nato member, and the alliance’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, made clear in a CNN interview on Tuesday that no combat troops from the alliance would be sent to Ukraine. There are currently a few hundred advisers in the country from the US, UK and other allies.



			US finalizing plans to divert gas to Europe if Russia cuts off supply


----------



## MilEME09

If true, and European gas is secure, then that could become the nuclear sanction that cripples the Russian economy.


----------



## Altair

Underway said:


> Not only that, without US logistic support NATO can barely deploy from Europe to Africa (demonstrated by the Mali effort).


And Libya.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> If true, and European gas is secure, then that could become the nuclear sanction that cripples the Russian economy.


Russia exports 230m cubic metres per day to Europe. 

Lets see if the USA can make up for that shortfall on short notice.

As for the nuclear sanction to Russia, yes, for now. But Russia seems to be shifting a lot of natural gas exports to China.


----------



## Altair

Russia’s ‘Gas Pivot’ to China Poses Challenge for Europe
					

Gazprom, Russia’s giant state-owned energy company, is slated to finalize a deal for a second huge natural gas pipeline running from Siberia to China




					www.voanews.com
				





> Gazprom, Russia’s giant state-owned energy company, is slated to finalize an agreement in 2022 for a second huge natural gas pipeline running from Siberia to China, marking yet another stage in what energy analysts and Western diplomats say is a fast-evolving gas pivot to Asia by Moscow.
> 
> They see the pivot as a geopolitical project and one that could mean trouble for Europe.
> 
> Known as Power of Siberia 2, the mega-pipeline traversing Mongolia will be able to deliver 50 billion cubic meters of Russian gas to China annually. It was given the go-ahead in March by Russian President Vladimir Putin, and when finished it will complement another massive pipeline, Power of Siberia 1, that transports gas from Russia’s Chayandinskoye field to northern China.
> www.voanews.com/a/russia-gas-pivot-to-china-poses-challenge-for-europe/6375859.html


----------



## KevinB

Underway said:


> Lets be real here.  This move by Russia is entirely based on their own defense situation, not Putin's ego (he's far too much a calculating realist), and not a wish to return to Soviet times, and not for domestic popularity approvals.
> 
> Russia is facing a demographic cliff.  In the next 10 years, their conscripting age demographic will be half what it is now.  This means the Russian army will be half the number it is now.
> 
> This has driven a number of things, new armoured tech for smaller crew sizes, drones, asymetric warfare research, etc...
> 
> But the thing it has driven the most is Russia's aggressive stance on areas where it is normally invaded.  Russia's borders will be undefendable if the army goes to half strength.  But maybe if smart you can plug those gaps. This is literally the strategy that Russia has used since the Tzar's.  Every single Russian leader can read a map.
> 
> View attachment 68242
> 
> Northern invasion route: Plug this gap using submarines and naval assets.  Even Canada has invaded Russia this way during the Revolution.
> Baltic Route: Tricky now that NATO has assets there and the Baltic states are part of NATO.
> Northern European Plain: Use Belarussia as a friendly state to help give you buffer space from invasions this way. Ukraine is along this route to the south and provides for flanking of potential invasions.
> Southern European Plain south of the Carpathian Mountains: this goes through Ukraine directly and Crimea is along this route as well.
> Eastern invasion route: Space, winter, time.  Keep the states that are out in this direction weak or bought off.
> The Russians know that Ukraine as a NATO ally would be a security disaster for them.  NATO countries backed the Orange Revolution which overturned the legally elected Pro-Russian government.  Seeing the writing on the wall Russia took Crimea (which was only Ukrainian because of Stalin's politicking, it never was before) and broke Ukraine so it won't be a threat and can't join NATO using the same tactics they did in Georgia and South Ossetia.
> 
> A broken Ukraine is now a liability for NATO and the US, and a chip to be bargained for.  If Russia can create even more territory in the Ukraine it will significantly increase their security and reduce the demands on their military manpower.
> 
> From Canada and the US's security perspective, Ukraine is irrelevant except on a check to Russian power, which since they are not threatening to overturn the world order is a European problem.  Back to great power competition, the US is looking for a nice way to make a deal, make Biden look good (to contrast to the pro Putin Trump) and cost them nothing.  Europe is probably pushing for more direct interventions (as is Turkey).
> 
> Canada as normal will try to look tough for the people who live here that think they are Ukrainian (because their Grandma was and they like perogies and playing euchre, even though they don't know a single person who lives in Ukraine) for the votes but really do nothing.


When you lay it out - the Ukraine and Crimea actually increases their frontage.

 1) The boarder with Finland is around 1155km long 
 2) The Estonia/Latvia Border is around 380km  
 3) Belarus adds to that frontage almost another 700km - and adds Poland - when you look at the Ukraine border the entire front is over 2800km
  - if Russian wanted to reduce its frontage - letting go of Belarus and the Ukraine removes it to 1800km - of course Belarus is very close to Moscow - so that is a major concern for Vlad - as well as a lot of the protests against his boy there and the "election".

 The only way Russia can reduce its border without attacking Lithuania, Estonia and Lativa is to push out the entire Ukraine and Moldova.

 Anyone thinking that a limited goal in the Ukraine makes sense to Russia is not looking at the long game - - 


 I'd rather draw a red line and if necessary fight Russia in the Ukraine now - than later, as I believe with my hand on my heart that it is not going to stop here, and frankly I think a lot of our forefathers would be rolling in their graves with the bullshit that is going on now.


----------



## FJAG

Altair said:


> Russia’s ‘Gas Pivot’ to China Poses Challenge for Europe
> 
> 
> Gazprom, Russia’s giant state-owned energy company, is slated to finalize a deal for a second huge natural gas pipeline running from Siberia to China
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.voanews.com


Maybe it's time the Germans got their heads out of their green butts and fired their eight shuttered nuclear power plants back up. They've got lots of coal mines to bury the nuclear waste in. 

Right now Germany gets about 13% of its electricity generated and 41% of its homes are heated through gas (and 32% of that comes from Russia), 7% from hard coal for its coal power plants (of which 53% comes from Russia) and 34% of its crude oil comes from Russia.



> Energy in Germany - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org





> Factbox: How dependent is Germany on Russian gas?
> 
> 
> Russian forces invaded Ukraine on Thursday, sending European gas prices higher and increasing the focus on gas supply in countries including Germany, which is Europe's largest economy and imports most of the gas it consumes.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com



🍻


----------



## Altair

FJAG said:


> Maybe it's time the Germans got their heads out of their green butts and fired their eight shuttered nuclear power plants back up. They've got lots of coal mines to bury the nuclear waste in.
> 
> Right now Germany gets about 13% of its electricity generated and 41% of its homes are heated through gas (and 32% of that comes from Russia), 7% from hard coal for its coal power plants (of which 53% comes from Russia) and 34% of its crude oil comes from Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 🍻


I think that Europe will ween itself off of Russian oil and gas sooner or later, either by going fully green, including nuclear, or finding alternative sources of oil and gas.

But it won't mean a thing to Russia, so long as China is there to buy up their supply.

The Moscow Beijing alliance, both militarily and economically will give the west fits as we try to find effective counters for them. If China buys their oil and gas, what good does sanctions do? It's going to be a case of military confrontation or simply let them do what they please.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> When you lay it out - the Ukraine and Crimea actually increases their frontage.
> 
> 1) The boarder with Finland is around 1155km long
> 2) The Estonia/Latvia Border is around 380km
> 3) Belarus adds to that frontage almost another 700km - and adds Poland - when you look at the Ukraine border the entire front is over 2800km
> - if Russian wanted to reduce its frontage - letting go of Belarus and the Ukraine removes it to 1800km - of course Belarus is very close to Moscow - so that is a major concern for Vlad - as well as a lot of the protests against his boy there and the "election".
> 
> The only way Russia can reduce its border without attacking Lithuania, Estonia and Lativa is to push out the entire Ukraine and Moldova.
> 
> Anyone thinking that a limited goal in the Ukraine makes sense to Russia is not looking at the long game - -
> 
> 
> I'd rather draw a red line and if necessary fight Russia in the Ukraine now - than later, as I believe with my hand on my heart that it is not going to stop here, and frankly I think a lot of our forefathers would be rolling in their graves with the bullshit that is going on now.


Red lines are a weird thing when the west has no stomach to back them up.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Red lines are a weird thing when the west has no stomach to back them up.


No argument here...


----------



## OldSolduer

KevinB said:


> No argument here...


Kinda like those lines in the sand????


----------



## YZT580

Altair said:


> I really don't expect Russia to attack any member of NATO.
> 
> Even the Baltics.
> 
> But any nation outside of NATO that is a thorn in Russias side I believe is fair game, with the next obvious target being Finland.


Whilst I agree with your last statement, Finland would be the last border country that Russia would tackle.  they have proven themselves as being very prickly.  An invasion there would cost Vlad more than he is willing to pay.


----------



## Altair

YZT580 said:


> Whilst I agree with your last statement, Finland would be the last border country that Russia would tackle.  they have proven themselves as being very prickly.  An invasion there would cost Vlad more than he is willing to pay.


The price would be high for both sides, more than what the Fins would be likely willing to pay compared to the low low cost of simply keeping NATO at bay.


----------



## FJAG

One view from Germany:



> Germany Has a Russia Problem
> 
> 
> Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking to shift the balance of power in Europe and is even threatening war. So far, the German government hasn’t provided a clear answer to that threat. The problem is primarily a product of the party of Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.spiegel.de



🍻


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> I really don't expect Russia to attack any member of NATO.
> 
> Even the Baltics.
> 
> But any nation outside of NATO that is a thorn in Russias side I believe is fair game, with the next obvious target being





KevinB said:


> When you lay it out - the Ukraine and Crimea actually increases their frontage.
> 
> 1) The boarder with Finland is around 1155km long
> 2) The Estonia/Latvia Border is around 380km
> 3) Belarus adds to that frontage almost another 700km - and adds Poland - when you look at the Ukraine border the entire front is over 2800km
> - if Russian wanted to reduce its frontage - letting go of Belarus and the Ukraine removes it to 1800km - of course Belarus is very close to Moscow - so that is a major concern for Vlad - as well as a lot of the protests against his boy there and the "election".
> 
> The only way Russia can reduce its border without attacking Lithuania, Estonia and Lativa is to push out the entire Ukraine and Moldova.
> 
> Anyone thinking that a limited goal in the Ukraine makes sense to Russia is not looking at the long game - -
> 
> 
> I'd rather draw a red line and if necessary fight Russia in the Ukraine now - than later, as I believe with my hand on my heart that it is not going to stop here, and frankly I think a lot of our forefathers would be rolling in their graves with the bullshit that is going on now.


From the West’s perspective having Ukraine independent from Russia creates a large buffer state between them and the Russians. This is both good and bad. 
Good, because it gives us space between ‘us’ and the Bear. Bad, because it gives us space between us and the Bear. It’s that extra space that allows the Germans, Danes, Belgians, Dutch and Czechs to keep their defence spending to a bare minimum. Remove that space and make Poland, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia the frontlines and the others will up their defence spending accordingly. 
The Poles would love to stop the Russians cold in the Ukraine and if the Ukraine was gone, the Germans would love to stop the Russians cold in Poland. Both Poland and Germany want someone else between them and the Russians.

The Russians want all of the Ukraine back, they want to have borders again with Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and put even more pressure on the Poles. Look how long of a frontier the Poles will have to defend against, it’s massive. They will play up tensions between Poles and Ukrainians with respect to the old western Galician lands in Poland, they will put pressure Romanians about suppressing native Hungarians in Transylvania and agitate for closer ties to their old religious brethren in Bulgaria. If they border Hungary/Romania again look to them to put pressure on them for easier access to Serbia via those two countries. 

The Ukraine is a mishmash of a country. Kiev west to the Polish border is a hotbed of Ukrainian nationalism. To the South and East much less so, with a melange of nationalities and loyalties. Ceding the lands east of the Dnieper to the Russians, keeping Kiev and the remaining lands part of the Ukraine and turning the whole place into a Finland or Austria could be an option. Outside of NATO, but eventually in the EU. 
It’s interesting that the Russians don’t seem to focus on the threat in the East from ChiCom. Frankly I believe that it’s because they would not hesitate to nuke them if they ever attempted to cross the border.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> From the West’s perspective having Ukraine independent from Russia creates a large buffer state between them and the Russians. This is both good and bad.
> Good, because it gives us space between ‘us’ and the Bear. Bad, because it gives us space between us and the Bear. It’s that extra space that allows the Germans, Danes, Belgians, Dutch and Czechs to keep their defence spending to a bare minimum. Remove that space and make Poland, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia the frontlines and the others will up their defence spending accordingly.
> The Poles would love to stop the Russians cold in the Ukraine and if the Ukraine was gone, the Germans would love to stop the Russians cold in Poland. Both Poland and Germany want someone else between them and the Russians.
> 
> The Russians want all of the Ukraine back, they want to have borders again with Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and put even more pressure on the Poles. Look how long of a frontier the Poles will have to defend against, it’s massive. They will play up tensions between Poles and Ukrainians with respect to the old western Galician lands in Poland, they will put pressure Romanians about suppressing native Hungarians in Transylvania and agitate for closer ties to their old religious brethren in Bulgaria. If they border Hungary/Romania again look to them to put pressure on them for easier access to Serbia via those two countries.
> 
> The Ukraine is a mishmash of a country. Kiev west to the Polish border is a hotbed of Ukrainian nationalism. To the South and East much less so, with a melange of nationalities and loyalties. Ceding the lands east of the Dnieper to the Russians, keeping Kiev and the remaining lands part of the Ukraine and turning the whole place into a Finland or Austria could be an option. Outside of NATO, but eventually in the EU.
> It’s interesting that the Russians don’t seem to focus on the threat in the East from ChiCom. Frankly I believe that it’s because they would not hesitate to nuke them if they ever attempted to cross the border.


What threat? 

Both Moscow and Beijing have similar geopolitical enemies, both Moscow and Beijing are increasing economic and military ties, and both Moscow and Beijing have other more pressing issues far away from their shared border. 

Moscow with Ukraine  and Beijing with Taiwan. 

This China Russia needing to be afraid of one another is a western pipe dream


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> What threat?
> 
> Both Moscow and Beijing have similar geopolitical enemies, both Moscow and Beijing are increasing economic and military ties, and both Moscow and Beijing have other more pressing issues far away from their shared border.
> 
> Moscow with Ukraine  and Beijing with Taiwan.
> 
> This China Russia needing to be afraid of one another is a western pipe dream


Any other places outside of India and Pakistan where countries have had DIV level Arty duels in the past 40 years?   

The Russians and the Chinese aren’t friends by any stretch, they both view each other with distain, and any relationships are out of convenience at this point, as I think they each trust the West more than the other.  

Taiwan doesn’t offer China the room it needs. 
The Ukraine doesn’t offer any real security to Russia.  
   It may be convenient currently to focus the West, but in the long term, there will be major issues between China and Russia, and they both know it and have prepared.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Altair said:


> What threat?
> 
> Both Moscow and Beijing have similar geopolitical enemies, both Moscow and Beijing are increasing economic and military ties, and both Moscow and Beijing have other more pressing issues far away from their shared border.
> 
> Moscow with Ukraine  and Beijing with Taiwan.
> 
> This China Russia needing to be afraid of one another is a western pipe dream



You, like millions of others, clearly have no idea about what's really at stake here:

Opinion: The threat of nuclear conflict is high. We need a new commitment to de-escalation.​
Tensions over Ukraine or Taiwan could get out of hand quickly, with uncertain outcomes. Just this past week, Russia made veiled threats of deploying more battlefield nuclear weapons in and around Ukraine. Worse, the United States, Russia and China are all rapidly modernizing or expanding their nuclear and missile capabilities, as are Britain, India, Pakistan and North Korea.

It is understandable that the international community welcomed the Jan. 3 statement by the United States, Russia, China, France and Britain, the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council collectively known as the P-5, that adopted the historic 1985 Reagan-Gorbachev statement for the first time. But despite their stated rejection of nuclear war in reality, the United States and Russia exercise daily for such war, and both invest heavily in nuclear weaponry.



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/01/17/threat-nuclear-conflict-is-high-we-need-new-commitment-de-escalation/


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Any other places outside of India and Pakistan where countries have had DIV level Arty duels in the past 40 years?


If a year is a long time in politics, 40 years is what?


KevinB said:


> The Russians and the Chinese aren’t friends by any stretch, they both view each other with distain, and any relationships are out of convenience at this point, as I think they each trust the West more than the other.


That's laughable to me. I dont think either trust or likes the west. And they wouldn't be holding joint military drills and having China buy up all of russias oil and gas if they were holding each other in disdain.


KevinB said:


> Taiwan doesn’t offer China the room it needs.
> The Ukraine doesn’t offer any real security to Russia.



What room does China need? Go look at a population map of China their western provinces have the population of Canada. Seriously, most of China lives on their coast and they have plenty of room within their own borders if they so wanted to use it. Couple that with the demographic crunch China is facing and I really don't think they are worried much about "room".

As for Russia, what does China have that they could want? Fact is, Russia needs access to the Chinese economy to counteract western sanctions.


KevinB said:


> It may be convenient currently to focus the West, but in the long term, there will be major issues between China and Russia, and they both know it and have prepared.


It's a pipe dream. Do they have plans for it, yeah, sure. Same as Canada having plans for war with the USA.

But I don't think Russia and China are any more likely to go to war with another than Canada and the USA are.

Again,

Economic ties.

Both are nuclear powers that would destroy each other.

Increased military ties.

And they both have the same geopolitical rivals, NATO and the USA.

Russia would not be moving troops from the far east to the Ukrainian border if they had anything to fear from China


----------



## Altair

daftandbarmy said:


> You, like millions of others, clearly have no idea about what's really at stake here:
> 
> Opinion: The threat of nuclear conflict is high. We need a new commitment to de-escalation.​
> Tensions over Ukraine or Taiwan could get out of hand quickly, with uncertain outcomes. Just this past week, Russia made veiled threats of deploying more battlefield nuclear weapons in and around Ukraine. Worse, the United States, Russia and China are all rapidly modernizing or expanding their nuclear and missile capabilities, as are Britain, India, Pakistan and North Korea.
> 
> It is understandable that the international community welcomed the Jan. 3 statement by the United States, Russia, China, France and Britain, the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council collectively known as the P-5, that adopted the historic 1985 Reagan-Gorbachev statement for the first time. But despite their stated rejection of nuclear war in reality, the United States and Russia exercise daily for such war, and both invest heavily in nuclear weaponry.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/01/17/threat-nuclear-conflict-is-high-we-need-new-commitment-de-escalation/


I really don't see nukes playing a part in this coming conflict.

I could be wrong on that but I doubt it


----------



## The Bread Guy

RUS ambassador to CAN:  I'm _sure_ the boss'll pick up if your PM calls (Globe & Mail link - over-the-paywall link) ...


> Moscow’s envoy in Canada is urging Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to telephone Vladimir Putin so he can hear the Russian President explain how there is “zero chance” that Russia will invade Ukraine.
> 
> Oleg Stepanov, the recently arrived Russian ambassador to Canada, told The Globe and Mail Tuesday that Mr. Putin would accept a phone call from Mr. Trudeau to discuss the crisis in Ukraine and Moscow’s massing of more than 100,000 troops on the Russian-Ukrainian border.
> 
> “I am 100 per cent sure my president would pick up the phone immediately,” Mr. Stepanov said, noting the two leaders have never sat down for a bilateral meeting in Mr. Trudeau’s seven years in office.
> 
> Mr. Putin would welcome the opportunity to make the case to Mr. Trudeau that he has no plans to invade Ukraine, and to explain the Kremlin’s opposition to NATO encroachment on its borders, Mr. Stepanov said ...


Survey commissioned by UKR diaspora group:  *"Canadians overwhelmingly support assisting Ukraine, providing weapons"* (archive link here) - highlights ....


One UKR media outlet's take on the polling here


----------



## Underway

That's a nice vague question.

Here's the real question.

Canada should send our military to fight a war with Russia for Ukrainian territorial integrity?

98% strongly disagree.


----------



## Underway

daftandbarmy said:


> You, like millions of others, clearly have no idea about what's really at stake here:
> 
> Opinion: The threat of nuclear conflict is high. We need a new commitment to de-escalation.​
> Tensions over Ukraine or Taiwan could get out of hand quickly, with uncertain outcomes. Just this past week, Russia made veiled threats of deploying more battlefield nuclear weapons in and around Ukraine. Worse, the United States, Russia and China are all rapidly modernizing or expanding their nuclear and missile capabilities, as are Britain, India, Pakistan and North Korea.
> 
> It is understandable that the international community welcomed the Jan. 3 statement by the United States, Russia, China, France and Britain, the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council collectively known as the P-5, that adopted the historic 1985 Reagan-Gorbachev statement for the first time. But despite their stated rejection of nuclear war in reality, the United States and Russia exercise daily for such war, and both invest heavily in nuclear weaponry.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/01/17/threat-nuclear-conflict-is-high-we-need-new-commitment-de-escalation/


You're coming on too strong there. 

Nuclear conflict is not at a high. This is classic little green men, political destabilization and puppet government crap.  Russia isn't going to invade, they are trying to drive the west to the negotiating table to try and make Biden with a weak hand trade away Ukrainian independence for peace.

Russia wants less interference not more.  They aren't stupid.  But for them, this is a survival situation and for NATO it's not.  They will apply every lever.  NATO will cave on multiple points and Russia will call it a victory.  Heck this article you're quoting is literally exactly what the Russians want!  They won't de-escalate without concessions. NATO isn't willing to go that far.  US really doesn't care (their caring is just Democrat legacy "must be different than Trump" caring)

@Altair  as for Russia China situation, Russia hates China. China hates Russia.  There is far more likelihood of a conflict between them than you give credit for.  They have competing geopolitical interests along their shared border that will always cause friction between them.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Underway said:


> That's a nice vague question.
> 
> Here's the real question.
> 
> Canada should send our military to fight a war with Russia for Ukrainian territorial integrity?
> 
> 98% strongly disagree.



I'm not sure Canadians, en mass, would take up arms to defend our own country.  

I think this support consists of FB posts, words and cash; and stops right before physical action.


----------



## Underway

Halifax Tar said:


> I'm not sure Canadians, en mass, would take up arms to defend our own country.
> 
> I think this support consists of FB posts, words and cash; and stops right before physical action.


Oh Canadians would for Canada. I worked in recruiting during Afghanistan.  We couldn't keep up with people wanting to joining the infantry.  Canadian nationalism (true nationalism, not smug anti-american crap), when stoked is terrifying.  Because it shows up when we are past our limits of self control.


----------



## KevinB

Underway said:


> You're coming on too strong there.
> 
> Nuclear conflict is not at a high. This is classic little green men, political destabilization and puppet government crap.  Russia isn't going to invade, they are trying to drive the west to the negotiating table to try and make Biden with a weak hand trade away Ukrainian independence for peace.
> 
> Russia wants less interference not more.  They aren't stupid.  But for them, this is a survival situation and for NATO it's not.  They will apply every lever.  NATO will cave on multiple points and Russia will call it a victory.  Heck this article you're quoting is literally exactly what the Russians want!  They won't de-escalate without concessions. NATO isn't willing to go that far.  US really doesn't care (their caring is just Democrat legacy "must be different than Trump" caring)
> 
> @Altair  as for Russia China situation, Russia hates China. China hates Russia.  There is far more likelihood of a conflict between them than you understand give credit for.  They have competing geopolitical interests along their shared border that will always cause friction between them.


The only niggling point to me is for Russia it isn't a survival situation - at least not in a country aspect -- individual political and nationalism are the only thing truly threatened.  They know in the grand scheme they are actually safer beside NATO - as NATO isn't going to do anything offensive to affect Russia.

However unlike the West, Russia has never fallen for the whole "The Enemy of my Enemy, is my Friend" type thing.

I'm not sure when Universities in the West stopped teaching critical thinking, I suspect it was in the late 70's.
 (unfair broad brush - but accurate at times)


----------



## Underway

KevinB said:


> The only niggling point to me is for Russia it isn't a survival situation - at least not in a country aspect -- individual political and nationalism are the only thing truly threatened.  They know in the grand scheme they are actually safer beside NATO - as NATO isn't going to do anything offensive to affect Russia.
> 
> However unlike the West, Russia has never fallen for the whole "The Enemy of my Enemy, is my Friend" type thing.
> 
> I'm not sure when Universities in the West stopped teaching critical thinking, I suspect it was in the late 70's.
> (unfair broad brush - but accurate at times)


Speaking of critical thinking you are spouting a western view. 

NATO backed the pro-western Orange Revolution that overturned a legitimately and internationally recognized legal election.  The Pro Russian guy who was elected was ousted with western help (Germany in particular).

In Russia's view we struck first, and we are the threat if we are going to do stuff like this.

For Russia, it IS a survival situation.  If you can't control your borders then it's even harder to control your internal ethnic challenges.  Russia for its entire history has oscillated between a strong central government with control of its borders to collapsed empire being invaded by external aggressors.

Better to be the predator than the prey.


----------



## Good2Golf

Russia’s survival position still ranks behind Putin’s personal survival position.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Underway said:


> That's a nice vague question.
> 
> Here's the real question.
> 
> Canada should send our military to fight a war with Russia for Ukrainian territorial integrity?
> 
> 98% strongly disagree.


Should Canada send our military to maintain a buffer zone between NATO (Poland) and Russia?  Are we willing to sacrifice 40m people just so we can continue to bury our head in the sand? 

Is Canada, with its long, deep cultural and historical ties to Ukrainians, willing to accept 100-150k+ in refugees if Russia invades? I mean if we can accept 40k Syrians where we had *ZERO* cultural or historical ties, we should be more than willing to accept 150k+ Ukrainians, right?  

Are we again going to be ok when the Russians slam the Ukrainian borders shut and not allow them to escape because it will be the youth of the Ukraine that will try to escape to the West? It would be East Germany in the late 1950's, early 1960's all over again when the youngest and brightest of the DDR was voting with their feet and moving to the West that forced the Wall to be built.  If Russia builds a new Wall along that border or even refuses to provide travel exit Visa's to anyone whose place of birth was within the old Ukraine, will we be ok with that?


----------



## KevinB

Underway said:


> Speaking of critical thinking you are spouting a western view.


Perhaps


Underway said:


> NATO backed the pro-western Orange Revolution that overturned a legitimately and internationally recognized legal election.  The Pro Russian guy who was elected was ousted with western help (Germany in particular).


  I'm not sure NATO backed is am accurate assessment - while Yanukovych may have been legally elected - he then went and did things counter to what his people wanted.   Rolling back articles of the 2000 Constitution, seeking closer ties to Russia, and crushing protests did him in, not NATO.


Underway said:


> In Russia's view we struck first, and we are the threat if we are going to do stuff like this.


Russia's view is whatever is good for Russia is acceptable...


Underway said:


> For Russia, it IS a survival situation.  If you can't control your borders then it's even harder to control your internal ethnic challenges.  Russia for its entire history has oscillated between a strong central government with control of its borders to collapsed empire being invaded by external aggressors.
> 
> Better to be the predator than the prey.


For Putin and Co. it is a survival situation - you don't want folks looking into your dealings and elections etc - and if the neighbors are doing it to your buddies, that doesn't bode well for you.


----------



## Czech_pivo

With HMCS Montreal still not officially on its way to the Black Sea, if anything kicks off in the Ukraine around the beginning of the Olympics its looking like Montreal might arrive late and may not even enter the Black Sea if the Turks decide to close the Straits if things get 'hot'. 

A bit convenient for Trudeau and the Liberals.


----------



## Altair

Underway said:


> @Altair  as for Russia China situation, Russia hates China. China hates Russia.  There is far more likelihood of a conflict between them than you give credit for.  They have competing geopolitical interests along their shared border that will always cause friction between them.











						China, Russia launch joint naval drills in Russian Far East
					

China and Russia are united in opposing the dominant U.S. influence in global affairs.




					www.militarytimes.com
				






> The exercises Joint Sea 2021 kicked off with a ceremony on Thursday in Russia’s Peter the Great Gulf and will run through Sunday.
> 
> 
> Chinese state media said the drills would encompass communications, anti-mine, anti-air and anti-submarine operations, joint maneuvering and firing on seaborn targets.
> 
> While such exercises have been held before, the reports said this is the first time China has sent anti-submarine warfare planes and destroyers of more than 10,000 tons in displacement for exercises abroad.
> 
> China and Russia are united in opposing the dominant U.S. influence in global affairs and have been harsh critics of Washington’s foreign policy stumbles in Afghanistan and elsewhere.











						China is ramping up coal imports from Russia — but not Australia
					

As China tries to resolve its power shortage, the country is importing three times as much coal from Russia than last year, China customs data show.




					www.cnbc.com
				






> China imported about 3.7 million tons of thermal coal from Russia in September, according to customs data accessed through Wind Information. That’s up 28% from August and more than 230% higher than a year ago.
> 
> The surge is not a one-off. China’s imports of thermal coal from Russia have either doubled or tripled from 2020 levels every month since May. The monthly figures this year also remain well above pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
> 
> “This demonstrates that China still needs the global trade system, despite its concerted efforts to reduce its dependence on trade,” said Stephen Olson, senior research fellow at the Hinrich Foundation, a nonprofit organization focused on trade issues.











						Moscow gambles on Beijing gas tie-up – DW – 01/12/2022
					

A pipeline linking Russian gas with China means that Moscow is driving ahead with gas exports to China, which could allow it to tighten the screws further on EU consumers. Others say it could blow up in Moscow's face.




					www.dw.com
				






> Even before the recent surrounding possible strategic gas supply cuts by Russia, Moscow's energy plans called for an increase in exports to China. Russia knows that it needs to diversify into new markets as the European Union lowers dependence on its supplies.
> 
> Meanwhile, China's demand for gas is growing alongside a perceived need to mitigate potential energy trade wars with the US, the EU and Australia.
> 
> China is moving to natural gas as part of its drive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. It is already the world's largest gas consumer and buys about 43% of its gas from abroad, including 89 billion cubic meters (bcm) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and 46 bcm of piped gas, according to the country's General Administration of Customs.
> 
> Europe's 541 bcm of annual gas consumption is more than China's 331 bcm, but the latter is expected to rise to 526 bcm by 2030 as Beijing reduces its dependence on coal. The consulting firm McKinsey estimates that China's demand for gas will double by 2035. Its annual gas consumption is expected to reach 620 bcm by 2040 and overtake oil as the leading fuel source by 2050, according to data made public in September by Sinopec, one of China's largest energy companies.











						China and Russia show solidarity, but likely won't support each other militarily, analysts say
					

International pressure may have pushed China and Russia closer together, but not enough for them to send military support to each other, political analysts say.




					www.cnbc.com
				






> BEIJING — International pressure may have pushed China and Russia closer together, but not enough for the two countries to send military support to each other, U.S.-based analysts said.
> 
> Chinese President Xi Jinping met his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin virtually for the second time this year on Wednesday. It came just days after the U.S. and the other Group of 7 major economies condemned Russia’s military build-up and “aggressive rhetoric towards Ukraine.”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> “Beijing and Moscow are forging closer ties because both governments view deeper bilateral cooperation as beneficial to their respective national interests, and not primarily because of an ideological affinity between Xi and Putin,” said Neil Thomas, analyst for China and northeast Asia at consulting firm Eurasia Group.
> 
> China and Russia would rather “divide Washington’s political attention between strategic hotspots in Europe and the Indo-Pacific,” he said in an email.
> 
> It’s not clear what Beijing’s position on Ukraine is, but China has come under similar international scrutiny over human rights issues, and territorial claims on the democratically self-ruled island of Taiwan.
> 
> This year, while Moscow has sent troops to the border with Ukraine, Beijing has increased military activity near Taiwan. U.S. President Joe Biden recently made confusing statements on whether Washington would defend Taiwan upon attack.
> 
> Beijing likely wants to ensure that if it were to take military action against Taiwan, “the Russians wouldn’t do anything,” said Angela Stent, professor emerita and director of the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies at Georgetown University.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> “I think both sides recognize, Putin knows, that if he invaded Ukraine, China [isn’t] going to send military help,” she said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Thursday. “But they’ll remain completely neutral and that allows them to do whatever they want in what they consider to be their sphere of influence.”




Yeah, sounds like they really hate each other, so much so that they would come to blows. 

Absolutely.

Certainly. 

Without a doubt.

/Sarcasm


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Yeah, sounds like they really hate each other, so much so that they would come to blows.
> 
> Absolutely.
> 
> Certainly.
> 
> Without a doubt.
> 
> /Sarcasm


Yes I am sure Russia said that about Nazi Germany too, that lasted long too...


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> China, Russia launch joint naval drills in Russian Far East
> 
> 
> China and Russia are united in opposing the dominant U.S. influence in global affairs.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.militarytimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> China is ramping up coal imports from Russia — but not Australia
> 
> 
> As China tries to resolve its power shortage, the country is importing three times as much coal from Russia than last year, China customs data show.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnbc.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Moscow gambles on Beijing gas tie-up – DW – 01/12/2022
> 
> 
> A pipeline linking Russian gas with China means that Moscow is driving ahead with gas exports to China, which could allow it to tighten the screws further on EU consumers. Others say it could blow up in Moscow's face.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.dw.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> China and Russia show solidarity, but likely won't support each other militarily, analysts say
> 
> 
> International pressure may have pushed China and Russia closer together, but not enough for them to send military support to each other, political analysts say.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnbc.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Yeah, sounds like they really hate each other, so much so that they would come to blows.
> 
> Absolutely.
> 
> Certainly.
> 
> Without a doubt.
> 
> /Sarcasm


China needs massive amounts of fresh water.
The north of China, where most of its industry is, is bone dry.  They have projects in the works to move water from the south of China, where most of the fresh water is, to the north, but at a devastation to the environment.

Where is there massive amounts of clean fresh water (and don't say Canada, lol)? In Siberia, where barely any Russians live and if you cut the 1 and only transportation life line, the Trans-Siberian, you effectively cut all resources to those urban areas east of the cut.

The Chinese will stab the Russians in the back the first chance they can, as long as the Russians can't nuke them as a result. 





__





						Wall Street Journal: China’s Water Problems Are Even Worse Than You Think
					






					waterfootprint.org
				



_"the so-called South-North Water Transfer Project — a $81 billion effort to re-route water from the south to the drier north"

"though China is home to 21% of the world’s population, it contains only 7% of the world’s freshwater supplies. Particularly in its north, the country is deeply parched – so much so that the government last week said it would begin encouraging people to eat potatoes, rather than more water-intensive traditional staples such as rice and wheat, to try and conserve water."

"In China, ~80% of the human population live in 10% of the land area."_









						In China, the water you drink is as dangerous as the air you breathe | Deng Tingting
					

Nearly half the country has missed its five-year water quality targets, Greenpeace research shows – so what can be done about water pollution?




					www.theguardian.com
				



In China, the water you drink is as dangerous as the air you breathe​_"In Beijing, 39.9% of water was so polluted that it was essentially functionless. In Tianjin, northern China’s principal port city and home to 15 million people, a mere 4.9% of water is usable as a drinking water source."_









						China’s Water Challenges: National and Global Implications - Association for Asian Studies
					

China’s environmental challenges have received wide attention in recent years. A variety of disturbing images and stories from media outlets have fueled a pervasive image of China as an environmental wasteland, while expanding scholarship has inventoried China’s air, water, and land problems...




					www.asianstudies.org
				



_"The Yellow River Valley and the North China Plain constitute one of the economic and social cores of China—generating over 20 percent of the nation’s grain supply and among the most densely populated regions in the world." 
"The North China Plain accounts for less than 10 percent of China’s total water resources, despite sustaining over 30 percent of its population."
"Water tables have declined by an average of 1.5 meters (1.64 yards) per year since 1990. In 1997, the river ran dry 780 kilometers (485 miles) upstream from the river mouth.3 At the same time, industrial, agricultural, and household pollutants have rendered water in downstream segments of the river unsafe for any use."_

'Parched' Chinese city plans to pump water from Russian lake via 1,000km pipeline​








						'Parched' Chinese city plans to pump water from Russian lake via 1,000km pipeline
					

Urban planners in Lanzhou have drawn up proposals to pipe water into the chronically dry region from Siberia’s Lake Baikal.




					www.theguardian.com
				




_"China is reportedly considering plans to build a 1,000km (620 mile) pipeline to pump water all the way from Siberia to its drought-stricken northwest."
“*Once the technical issues are resolved,* diplomats should sit down and talk to each other about how each party would benefit from such international cooperation,” said Li, the vice president of the China Society of Economic Reform, a state-run think tank."_
"“The government should attach great importance to water resources of which there is a severe scarcity ... and for which there are no alternatives.”"


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Yes I am sure Russia said that about Nazi Germany too, that lasted long too...


Yes, let's ignore all recent evidence that they clearly don't hate one another and are partners at least at a basic level and call up WW2 as the most recent comparable.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> China needs massive amounts of fresh water.
> The north of China, where most of its industry is, is bone dry.  They have projects in the works to move water from the south of China, where most of the fresh water is, to the north, but at a devastation to the environment.
> 
> Where is there massive amounts of clean fresh water (and don't say Canada, lol)? In Siberia, where barely any Russians live and if you cut the 1 and only transportation life line, the Trans-Siberian, you effectively cut all resources to those urban areas east of the cut.
> 
> The Chinese will stab the Russians in the back the first chance they can, as long as the Russians can't nuke them as a result.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Wall Street Journal: China’s Water Problems Are Even Worse Than You Think
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> waterfootprint.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _"the so-called South-North Water Transfer Project — a $81 billion effort to re-route water from the south to the drier north"
> 
> "though China is home to 21% of the world’s population, it contains only 7% of the world’s freshwater supplies. Particularly in its north, the country is deeply parched – so much so that the government last week said it would begin encouraging people to eat potatoes, rather than more water-intensive traditional staples such as rice and wheat, to try and conserve water."
> 
> "In China, ~80% of the human population live in 10% of the land area."_
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In China, the water you drink is as dangerous as the air you breathe | Deng Tingting
> 
> 
> Nearly half the country has missed its five-year water quality targets, Greenpeace research shows – so what can be done about water pollution?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In China, the water you drink is as dangerous as the air you breathe​_"In Beijing, 39.9% of water was so polluted that it was essentially functionless. In Tianjin, northern China’s principal port city and home to 15 million people, a mere 4.9% of water is usable as a drinking water source."_
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> China’s Water Challenges: National and Global Implications - Association for Asian Studies
> 
> 
> China’s environmental challenges have received wide attention in recent years. A variety of disturbing images and stories from media outlets have fueled a pervasive image of China as an environmental wasteland, while expanding scholarship has inventoried China’s air, water, and land problems...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.asianstudies.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _"The Yellow River Valley and the North China Plain constitute one of the economic and social cores of China—generating over 20 percent of the nation’s grain supply and among the most densely populated regions in the world."
> "The North China Plain accounts for less than 10 percent of China’s total water resources, despite sustaining over 30 percent of its population."
> "Water tables have declined by an average of 1.5 meters (1.64 yards) per year since 1990. In 1997, the river ran dry 780 kilometers (485 miles) upstream from the river mouth.3 At the same time, industrial, agricultural, and household pollutants have rendered water in downstream segments of the river unsafe for any use."_
> 
> 'Parched' Chinese city plans to pump water from Russian lake via 1,000km pipeline​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 'Parched' Chinese city plans to pump water from Russian lake via 1,000km pipeline
> 
> 
> Urban planners in Lanzhou have drawn up proposals to pipe water into the chronically dry region from Siberia’s Lake Baikal.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _"China is reportedly considering plans to build a 1,000km (620 mile) pipeline to pump water all the way from Siberia to its drought-stricken northwest."
> “*Once the technical issues are resolved,* diplomats should sit down and talk to each other about how each party would benefit from such international cooperation,” said Li, the vice president of the China Society of Economic Reform, a state-run think tank."_
> "“The government should attach great importance to water resources of which there is a severe scarcity ... and for which there are no alternatives.”"


Yes, so instead of buying it like they do with oil and gas, or coal, they will...invade Russia.

I honestly don't know if I'm trapped in some weird Tom Clancy novel where instead of a nation going the rational route they decide to test MAD with their neighbor that they have cordial to decent relations with or if you guys are stuck in the 1970s


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Yes, so instead of buying it like they do with oil and gas, or coal, they will...invade Russia.
> 
> I honestly don't know if I'm trapped in some weird Tom Clancy novel where instead of a nation going the rational route they decide to test MAD with their neighbor that they have cordial to decent relations with or if you guys are stuck in the 1970s


Let's face it the only reason Vlad is doing this is so no one starts sniffing around him.
   He's got to get the Ukraine back under his thumb - and keep the Stans and Belarus quiet - so internal dissent and anti-corruption efforts don't topple him.

China doesn't want a war with Russia - anymore than they want a war with the US/NATO, but you think they won't have tens of thousands of migrants start squatting in Siberia?  The Chinese are better than anyone at the Long Game - they don't think in election cycles, and at times even in generations...


----------



## Kat Stevens

KevinB said:


> Let's face it the only reason Vlad is doing this is so no one starts sniffing around him.
> He's got to get the Ukraine back under his thumb - and keep the Stans and Belarus quiet - so internal dissent and anti-corruption efforts don't topple him.
> 
> China doesn't want a war with Russia - anymore than they want a war with the US/NATO, but you think they won't have tens of thousands of migrants start squatting in Siberia?  The Chinese are better than anyone at the Long Game - they don't think in election cycles, and at times even in generations...


“If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by.”​
― Sun Tzu


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> Yes, so instead of buying it like they do with oil and gas, or coal, they will...invade Russia.
> 
> I honestly don't know if I'm trapped in some weird Tom Clancy novel where instead of a nation going the rational route they decide to test MAD with their neighbor that they have cordial to decent relations with or if you guys are stuck in the 1970s


How much water do you think that they would have to sell? We are talking about the daily water needs of something like 3-400 million people, and industry What do you think that the environmental effects of this would be? 
Putin is smart, little doubt about that, but there is zero chance that he would cripple Russia/Siberia why allowing something on that scale to occur. The people of Siberia would rise up.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kat Stevens said:


> “If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by.”​
> ― Sun Tzu


In today’s China that may no longer be accurate - some of their rivers have no water left.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Let's face it the only reason Vlad is doing this is so no one starts sniffing around him.
> He's got to get the Ukraine back under his thumb - and keep the Stans and Belarus quiet - so internal dissent and anti-corruption efforts don't topple him.


Yes, agreed. Vlad feels like he's been pushed enough, now he's pushing back.


KevinB said:


> China doesn't want a war with Russia - anymore than they want a war with the US/NATO, but you think they won't have tens of thousands of migrants start squatting in Siberia?  The Chinese are better than anyone at the Long Game - they don't think in election cycles, and at times even in generations...


At this point, neither do the Russians, so it's a wash. Vlad is more or less leader for life now, just like Xi, with Russian elections being more for show than anything else.

And yes  I know these is a large Chinese diaspora in eastern Russia, what of it? They are not simply going to hand the country over to China.


Sometimes, we should take things at face value. China is focused on grabbing Taiwan. They are using their air force to harass Taiwan. They are making statements about the unification of China.

Russia wants Ukraine, either in whole or as a puppet. They have taken the Crimea, they have supported rebels in East Ukraine, and they are amassing troops and supplies for a possible invasion.

This talk about China versus Russia doesn't fit those two realities. There isnt a Chinese army buildup in the Russian far east, there are not military tensions, there are not economic tensions.

All is quiet on the eastern front,  unlike the Russian western front which looks like it's going to go hot any day now.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> How much water do you think that they would have to sell? We are talking about the daily water needs of something like 3-400 million people, and industry What do you think that the environmental effects of this would be?
> Putin is smart, little doubt about that, but there is zero chance that he would cripple Russia/Siberia why allowing something on that scale to occur. The people of Siberia would rise up.


I find it hard to believe Ukraine may be fighting for its life in the coming weeks and we are talking about the non invasion of Russia by China.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Yes, agreed. Vlad feels like he's been pushed enough, now he's pushing back.
> 
> At this point, neither do the Russians, so it's a wash. Vlad is more or less leader for life now, just like Xi, with Russian elections being more for show than anything else.
> 
> And yes  I know these is a large Chinese diaspora in eastern Russia, what of it? They are not simply going to hand the country over to China.


Not now, but stop thinking like a Westerner.  Think multi-generationally.


Altair said:


> Sometimes, we should take things at face value. China is focused on grabbing Taiwan. They are using their air force to harass Taiwan. They are making statements about the unification of China.


 I honestly don't see it - harassing is far from trying to invade an island.



Altair said:


> Russia wants Ukraine, either in whole or as a puppet. They have taken the Crimea, they have supported rebels in East Ukraine, and they are amassing troops and supplies for a possible invasion.


 Honestly Russian doesn't want Ukraine - they just don't want the Ukraine to clean up into a thriving democracy.
   That would be bad for Vlad's buddy in Belarus, as well as the Stans, and then Vlad himself.



Altair said:


> This talk about China versus Russia doesn't fit those two realities. There isnt a Chinese army buildup in the Russian far east, there are not military tensions, there are not economic tensions.
> 
> All is quiet on the eastern front,  unlike the Russian western front which looks like it's going to go hot any day now.


Again - not talking in this election cycle, or even maybe my life time - but China is expanding into Russia, and Afghanistan slowly -- usually when folks realize China's true intentions it is to late for action.


----------



## Kirkhill

Nuclear De-escalation Threat.



			https://www.foi.se/rest-api/report/FOI-R--4326--SE
		


Section 4.4.3 p.112




> The role of nuclear weapons in Russian security policy is traditionally defined in the Military Doctrine, in nuclear deterrence policy documents, and in key speeches and declarations by the political leadership. At the doctrinal level there has been no public change in the Russian nuclear position. The revised Military Doctrine 2014 has the same wording as was previously used to explain Russia’s policy with respect to the use of nuclear weapons. Paragraph 27 states: “The Russian Federation reserves the right to utilize nuclear weapons in response to the utilization of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and (or) its allies, and also in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation involving the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is under threat. The decision to utilize nuclear weapons is made by the president of the Russian Federation.” However, the state in today’s Russia is closely associated with the political system built around President Vladimir Putin. This raises the question of whether the current political leadership makes a distinction between regime survival and the state.
> 
> According to the new National Security Strategy “strategic deterrence and the prevention of military conflicts are achieved by upholding nuclear deterrence at a sufficiently high level” (Strategiia natsionalnoi 2015: §36). This is slightly sharper than in the previous Security Strategy where the “importance of keeping the potential of the strategic nuclear forces” was underlined. In addition to the latest public declarations and the increase in nuclear exercises over the last three years (both in size and duration), a debate is going on in military newspapers and journals regarding the use of nuclear weapons to de-escalate a conflict. Nuclear de-escalation means the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons when a local war is escalating into a regional war. The use of nuclear weapons should, according to this line of thought, frighten the adversary and lead to a de-escalation of the conflict. In the military debate over the past few years, these ideas have become more frequent. Konstantin Sivkov, a known hardliner at the Academy for Geopolitical Problems, argued in March 2014 (before the revision of the Military Doctrine had been completed) that a preventive strike with non-strategic nuclear weapons against an enemy would be not only possible but also right (Sivkov 2014). He and others argued for a change in the official Doctrine that would explicitly regulate Russia’s possible use of a preventive nuclear strike. Makhmut Gareev has stated that the destruction of the intermediate-range ballistic missiles in the late 1980s and 1990s was a mistake. “Now the highest leadership of the Russian Federation also recognizes this mistake,” he wrote (Gareev 2013a). In addition, there are indications that the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) itself is being threatened in Russia (Arbatov 2016).



But, from the intro to the same section in the same report



> Strategic deterrence, with an emphasis on nuclear deterrence, is still a pillar in Russian security policy. Following the Russian annexation of Crimea, the possession of nuclear weapons has increasingly been used as an instrument of coercion. To give just two examples, the Russian Ambassador to Denmark threatened Denmark with Russian nuclear missiles should Denmark join NATO’s missile defence (Milne 2015), and at a meeting with the so-called Elbe Group in March 2015, the Russian envoys allegedly said that Russia would use its nuclear weapons if NATO moved more forces into Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia (Johnston 2015).



In both instances the Russians failed to deploy its nuclear weapons despite Western actions.

How many times can Vlad be seen to be bluffing?  How many times does the boy cry wolf before the wolf appears?

Potemkin is a Russian hero.

How do you deal with uncertainty?

I suggest you maintain contact, don't apply pressure, build up your options and let your options be seen.

There are enough motivated trigger pullers in Ukraine, and Eastern Europe generally, that the key element is just to ensure that they have an adequate supply of bullets, beans and bandages (and diesel).

The bigger problem is the irrelevance of Western Europe and Canada with respect to NATO.

The keen trigger pullers are found from Romania to Norway and include the previously neutral Swedes and Finns as well as the Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians, Poles, Hungarians, Czechs and Slovaks.

They present a problem for NATO and the Russians.  NATO can't "control" them.  Russia can't sustain a fight along a front that long.  Regardless of NATO and EU rules I suspect that Estonia and Latvia will buy whatever they can from wherever they can and feed it to Ukraine while sustaining their own forces.

The Brits, the Danes and the Dutch are leaning into the storm.   Canada is tending to side with the Franco-German view.

And then there is AUSUK and the Quad.

It is turning into another "Whose side are you on moment".


----------



## Kirkhill

Underway said:


> Speaking of critical thinking you are spouting a western view.
> 
> NATO backed the pro-western Orange Revolution that overturned a legitimately and internationally recognized legal election.  The Pro Russian guy who was elected was ousted with western help (Germany in particular).
> 
> In Russia's view we struck first, and we are the threat if we are going to do stuff like this.
> 
> For Russia, it IS a survival situation.  If you can't control your borders then it's even harder to control your internal ethnic challenges.  Russia for its entire history has oscillated between a strong central government with control of its borders to collapsed empire being invaded by external aggressors.
> 
> Better to be the predator than the prey.



From the same 2016 Swedish report I referenced above.




> Russia is seen as being under attack from a hostile West, and the Russian Armed Forces are to defend Russia’s historical and spiritual traditions. This development ties in nicely with the many government programmes on military-patriotic education and patriotic education. These state-run efforts clearly target the younger generation in Russia. The issue of what exactly the Russian spiritual and moral traditions consist of has been a subject of discussion in Russia, addressed not least by Putin himself. At the Valdai Club meeting in 2013 he devoted his speech to elaborating on his thinking on the Russian national identity (President of Russia 2013). Now, the particular features are specified in the National Security Strategy, including “priority for the spiritual over the material; collectivism; the historical unity among Russia’s people; our Fatherland’s historical heritage” (Strategiia natsionalnoi 2015: §78). This highlights the role of defence in the struggle with the West over values.
> This dovetails with Putin’s view of what it means to be Russian. In the Direct Line with the president on 17 April 2014 he claimed that people who live in a territory and share a common culture and history – and even climate – develop certain traits. A Russian, according to Putin, is characterized by being focused not on himself, but on the greater good. “We are spiritually more generous,” he claimed, and therefore different from the West. He said that, in the Russian world, “death is beautiful, and that to die for one’s friends, one’s people, the Fatherland is beautiful. This is one of the foundations of our patriotism” (President of Russia 2014b).
> Before examining the implications of this, it is vital to address the Russian view of soft power and colour revolutions. This is central for understanding how the Russian view of modern conflicts has evolved.





> 4.4.2
> Soft power, controlled chaos, and colour revolutions
> During the last couple of years, not least in the light of the Russian military aggression against Ukraine, a few new topics have emerged in Russian military thinking. One distinct feature is the view of soft power – albeit the Russian interpretation is quite different from the conventional view of increasing a country’s power of attraction (Nye 2004). A new factor in international politics, according to the Concept of Foreign Policy, is the use of soft power (Kontseptsiia vneshnei 2013: §20). On the one hand, soft power can be used as a complement to classic diplomacy. On the other, there is a risk of soft power being used as a tool to intrude into the domestic affairs of states, through “among other things to finance humanitarian projects and projects relating to human rights abroad”. Vladimir Putin defines it as “instruments and methods to achieve foreign policy objectives without the use of weapons – information and other levers of influence” (Putin 2012b). Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu is explicit: “The day has come when we all acknowledge that words, cameras, photographs, the internet, and information in general have become another branch of weapon, another branch of the Armed Forces” (Ministry of Defence 2015a, 2015b). This reflects a militarized view where soft power is seen as an instrument of statecraft.In the military theoretical debate soft power is seen as one weapon among others. Makhmut Gareev, an influential military theorist and a veteran of the Second World War, links the annexation of Crimea with soft power and strategic deterrence (Gareev 2014). It is, according to him, necessary to learn from Crimea in order to “perfect our soft power, political and diplomatic means, and information tools, and thus increase effectiveness in the system for strategic deterrence”.
> 
> It is noteworthy that soft power, in this line of thinking, is put at the same level as strategic deterrence – a level usually associated with nuclear weapons and high-precision long-range conventional weapons.
> Another term used in the Russian military theoretical debate is “controlled chaos” (upravliaemyi khaos). It is sometimes used in connection with a discussion of soft power. Gareev equates the two (Gareev 2013b). In connection with the Russian annexation of Crimea and the aggression in Donetsk and Luhansk, several articles in military theoretical journals are devoted to controlled chaos and to colour revolutions. Putin used the term “controlled chaos” used in his pre-election article on defence in 2012. It means that Russia was under attack from the West, which by various methods – political as well as economic – was destabilizing and undermining Russia’s neighbours, and ultimately Russia itself.
> Thoughts on the threat of colour revolutions were to be found in Russian military strategic thinking long before any actual colour revolutions occurred (Persson 2015a: 46–64). But the idea of the threat became much more developed after the Orange revolution in Ukraine in 2004–2005.
> Colour revolutions were one of the major topics at the annual security conference in Moscow in 2014 (Gavrilov 2014). This development was formalized in December 2015 when the term “colour revolution” was included into the National Security Strategy for the first time. It is described as a threat to Russia’s state security (Strategiia natsionalnoi 2015:§43).
> According to this line of thinking, both colour revolutions and controlled chaos are tools in the hands of the West and are being used to attack Russia. According to Fyodor Lukyanov, the colour revolution is a clear example of what happens when “soft” and “hard” forms of influence start to interact and clash with each other (Lukyanov 2015). He takes Ukraine as a case in point where he sees the United States as an aggressor.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> Russia wants Ukraine, either in whole or as a puppet. They have taken the Crimea, they have supported rebels in East Ukraine, and they are amassing troops and supplies for a possible invasion.


KevinB:​_Honestly Russian doesn't want Ukraine - they just don't want the Ukraine to clean up into a thriving democracy.
That would be bad for Vlad's buddy in Belarus, as well as the Stans, and then Vlad himself._

If the Ukraine is left alone, in its current state after all of this, no NATO and no EU,  it will still be bad for Belarus simply because over 300k Ukrainians now legally (and a substantial number illegally) live/work in Poland, directly across the border from Belarus/Ukraine and they are making much, much higher salaries and enjoy much more freedom than in either country.  These 300k will go back home regularly and talk about how good it is in Poland, they will send lots and lots of money back home to their elderly parents and struggling sibling still stuck in the Ukraine and all of this will lead more and more people wanting what the Poles have.   Young people in Belarus will read about this and most likely see it directly if they cross into Kiev or Lvov and they will continue to question why can't they have the same opportunities and such.  Belarus will not survive in its present state 7-10yrs from now if the Ukraine is not taken back completely under the Russian yoke.


----------



## Good2Golf

Czech_pivo said:


> The people of Siberia would rise up.


…both of them.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> KevinB:​_Honestly Russian doesn't want Ukraine - they just don't want the Ukraine to clean up into a thriving democracy.
> That would be bad for Vlad's buddy in Belarus, as well as the Stans, and then Vlad himself._
> 
> If the Ukraine is left alone, in its current state after all of this, no NATO and no EU,  it will still be bad for Belarus simply because over 300k Ukrainians now legally (and a substantial number illegally) live/work in Poland, directly across the border from Belarus/Ukraine and they are making much, much higher salaries and enjoy much more freedom than in either country.  These 300k will go back home regularly and talk about how good it is in Poland, they will send lots and lots of money back home to their elderly parents and struggling sibling still stuck in the Ukraine and all of this will lead more and more people wanting what the Poles have.   Young people in Belarus will read about this and most likely see it directly if they cross into Kiev or Lvov and they will continue to question why can't they have the same opportunities and such.  Belarus will not survive in its present state 7-10yrs from now if the Ukraine is not taken back completely under the Russian yoke.


Belarus isn't a backwater - they already see that - they have also seen several of their homegrown companies and wealthy bailing out in droves as well.
   Their election protesting went on for over 10 months.    Vlad had to move a lot of money to Lucashenko to quell the troubles, and make a lot of hollow promises he never plans on adopting.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Belarus isn't a backwater - they already see that - they have also seen several of their homegrown companies and wealthy bailing out in droves as well.
> Their election protesting went on for over 10 months.    Vlad had to move a lot of money to Lucashenko to quell the troubles, and make a lot of hollow promises he never plans on adopting.


All very true but that can and will only go so far. The kettle will boil over.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> ... Honestly Russian doesn't want Ukraine - they just don't want the Ukraine to clean up into a thriving democracy ...


Especially if they have to pay to occupy it.


----------



## Underway

Altair said:


> Yes, let's ignore all recent evidence that they clearly don't hate one another and are partners at least at a basic level and call up WW2 as the most recent comparable.


China and Russia still shoot at each other across their shared border.  They do hate each other.  But they have no other choice but to work together as the largest continental powers in Asia.  US is a bigger threat.  

This is a temporary situation.  Sort of like China being unified is a temporary situation.


----------



## MilEME09

UK and Nato allies consider US request to send more troops to eastern Europe
					

Reinforcements sought for Nato’s eastern flank as Russian forces mass on Ukrainian border




					www.theguardian.com
				




US has asked NATO allies for more troops for Eastern Europe, UK considering its next move.

Wonder if Canada was asked as well?


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> UK and Nato allies consider US request to send more troops to eastern Europe
> 
> 
> Reinforcements sought for Nato’s eastern flank as Russian forces mass on Ukrainian border
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> US has asked NATO allies for more troops for Eastern Europe, UK considering its next move.
> 
> Wonder if Canada was asked as well?


Probably not…it had excused itself to go to the washroom just before the US asked around the table.


----------



## MilEME09

Canada extends military operation in Ukraine for three years
					

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced on Wednesday the extension of Operation UNIFIER for three years, and the deployment of 60 more troops to Ukraine in the coming days.




					www.ctvnews.ca
				




Well thst answered my question, 60 more troops to Ukraine


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Canada extends military operation in Ukraine for three years
> 
> 
> Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced on Wednesday the extension of Operation UNIFIER for three years, and the deployment of 60 more troops to Ukraine in the coming days.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Well thst answered my question, 60 more troops to Ukraine


Note thought Canada sent troops to the Ukraine - which wasn't actually what the US wanted - they are looking for a CAF deployment to the Eastern European/Baltic NATO countries  - things like a CMBG, few squadrons of Hornets, etc.


----------



## YZT580

MilEME09 said:


> Canada extends military operation in Ukraine for three years
> 
> 
> Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced on Wednesday the extension of Operation UNIFIER for three years, and the deployment of 60 more troops to Ukraine in the coming days.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Well thst answered my question, 60 more troops to Ukraine


which neither reinforces Eastern Europe nor helps the Ukraines one iota.


----------



## Czech_pivo

YZT580 said:


> which neither reinforces Eastern Europe nor helps the Ukraines one iota.


Is anyone really, truly surprised by any of this?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Good2Golf said:


> Probably not…it had excused itself to go to the washroom just before the US asked around the table.


----------



## KevinB

YZT580 said:


> which neither reinforces Eastern Europe nor helps the Ukraines one iota.


Dead Canadians never play well on the world stage.  Even the negative Nelly Germans wouldn't argue against an Art 5 if a bunch of CAF personnel got killed by the Russians going into the Ukraine.


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> Dead Canadians never play well on the world stage.  Even the negative Nelly Germans wouldn't argue against an Art 5 if a bunch of CAF personnel got killed by the Russians going into the Ukraine.


Not sure if that was/is the plan from PMO/PCO/GoC…


----------



## Czech_pivo

Is this even remotely accurate?

"We have trained, _*our soldiers have trained over 30,000 Ukrainian soldiers*_. We should not underestimate the importance of this training mission,” said Anand."

And what the heck is this?  Did we send them a bunch of Nerf guns?

The government also announcement _*a shipment of non-lethal weapons*_ to Ukraine, intelligence sharing, and support to combat cyberattacks


----------



## KevinB

Good2Golf said:


> Not sure if that was/is the plan from PMO/PCO/GoC…


Well both Pierre and Fidel had a habit of using Military Personnel for various usages and considered them disposable to the need/want, I doubt the apple has fallen far...


----------



## Altair

YZT580 said:


> which neither reinforces Eastern Europe nor helps the Ukraines one iota.


Remember when people said Freeland would have Canada lead a vigorous response?

Those were heady days, no?


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Is this even remotely accurate?
> 
> "We have trained, _*our soldiers have trained over 30,000 Ukrainian soldiers*_. We should not underestimate the importance of this training mission,” said Anand."


Depends how the training/and what training is being done.
   If Canada conducts a segment of training, and it is a relatively short segment - then I have no doubt one could push that many through in the time that OP UNIFER has been running it could have done that.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Czech_pivo said:


> Is this even remotely accurate?
> 
> "We have trained, _*our soldiers have trained over 30,000 Ukrainian soldiers*_. We should not underestimate the importance of this training mission,” said Anand."
> 
> And what the heck is this?  Did we send them a bunch of Nerf guns?
> 
> The government also announcement _*a shipment of non-lethal weapons*_ to Ukraine, intelligence sharing, and support to combat cyberattacks



As of 2018, acording to Wiki:

The operation is part of Multinational Joint Commission, a larger body composed of the U.S., UK, Canada, Sweden, Poland, Lithuania and Denmark aimed at reforming Ukraine's military. The first Canadian troops to participate in the operation come from the 1st Battalion, Royal Canadian Regiment.[1][2] The Canadian contribution of training is provided by about 200 Canadian soldiers, rotating every 6 months. As of November 2018 there have been 230 course sessions and more than 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been trained under Operation Unifier.[3] Since 2018, a small Swedish contingent also operates within the framework. In December 2021, three Swedish officers were in Ukraine within the framework of Operation Unifier.[4]









						Operation Unifier - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Halifax Tar

Altair said:


> Remember when people said Freeland would have Canada lead a vigorous response?
> 
> Those were heady days, no?


Who said that ?


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> Remember when people said Freeland would have Canada lead a vigorous response?
> 
> Those were heady days, no?


She's in the background sharpening her knives.....

On a serious note, it is completely surprising that she has been non-existent during all of this.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Remember when people said Freeland would have Canada lead a vigorous response?
> 
> Those were heady days, no?


60 odd troops to add to UNIFER are easy peasy - I suspect that the various commands are having staff checks to see what from the cupboard could be shipped off.
   It may just be a Coy from the PPCLI with a Tank Troop - but I suspect Canada is going to offer some additional troops to Latvia,  I'd be shocked if it's more than that - but there are expectations down here that the CAF is going to sally something forth to NATO border countries.


----------



## Altair

Halifax Tar said:


> Who said that ?


There were a couple of people who said Freeland would force the PM to wholeheartedly throw his support behind Ukraine should things get serious.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> She's in the background sharpening her knives.....
> 
> On a serious note, it is completely surprising that she has been non-existent during all of this.


There is but one head of the LPC, and it's not her.

She's likely been told to stay in her lane and keep quiet, and with her wanting to win a future leadership battle, is likely doing just that.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> 60 odd troops UNIFER are easy peasy - I suspect that the various commands are having staff checks to see what from the cupboard could be shipped off.
> It may just be a Coy from the PPCLI with a Tank Troop - but I suspect Canada is going to offer some additional troops to Latvia,  I'd be shocked if it's more than that - but there are expectations down here that the CAF is going to sally something forth to NATO border countries.


Can the Americans deal with even more disappointment?


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Can the Americans deal with even more disappointment?


Well we haven't ousted our President yet, and the other meathead keeps yammering - so clearly yes 

Adding to OP Reassurance is an easy solution.  Looks good to NATO and doesn't make a NEW deployment.
Operation REASSURANCE - Canada.ca

I'm curious how the Change of Command planning is going on that...


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Well we haven't ousted our President yet, and the other meathead keeps yammering - so clearly yes
> 
> Adding to OP Reassurance is an easy solution.  Looks good to NATO and doesn't make a NEW deployment.
> Operation REASSURANCE - Canada.ca
> 
> I'm curious how the Change of Command planning is going on that...


After the midterms is going to be a fun time, isn't it?


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> After the midterms is going to be a fun time, isn't it?


IF I was Vlad, I'd wait for the midterms - totally dysfunctional USG then.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Well we haven't ousted our President yet, and the other meathead keeps yammering - so clearly yes
> 
> Adding to OP Reassurance is an easy solution.  Looks good to NATO and doesn't make a NEW deployment.
> Operation REASSURANCE - Canada.ca
> 
> I'm curious how the Change of Command planning is going on that...


Still wondering if HMCS Montreal has actually left Halifax yet. As of last night that hadn’t occurred.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> IF I was Vlad, I'd wait for the midterms - totally dysfunctional USG then.


Thats the passive approach.

But Vlad could have learned from the debacle that was the fall of Afghanistan, he could topple Ukraine and watch as the US electorate gets upset like they did after the fall of Kabul, and vote against the president.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Czech_pivo said:


> Still wondering if HMCS Montreal has actually left Halifax yet.



Just out of curiosity or as an some kind of indicator as to the GoC intent/will?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, what's Russian for Newspeak (links to archived article)?  *"Russian lawmaker says arms deliveries to Donbas would prevent war"*


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> ... And what the heck is this?  Did we send them a bunch of Nerf guns?
> 
> The government also announcement _*a shipment of non-lethal weapons*_ to Ukraine, intelligence sharing, and support to combat cyberattacks


Good question - no details from the info-machine ...


> ... the Honourable Anita Anand, Minister of National Defence, and the Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs, joined Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland to announce $340 million for immediate support to Ukraine and for the extension and expansion of Operation UNIFIER, the Canadian Armed Forces’ military training and capacity-building mission in Ukraine.
> 
> This extension and expansion of Canada’s military presence in support of Ukraine will ensure that members of the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) will continue to provide enhanced military training and mentorship to Ukraine’s security forces through to the end of March 2025. In the coming days an additional 60 troops will be deployed to Ukraine to join the approximately 200 women and men already on the ground, with the ability to increase the total number to 400 CAF personnel. The CAF will also work with the Communications Security Establishment on measures to support enhanced intelligence cooperation and cyber security and cyber operations. This increased support will help Ukraine strengthen its security and ability to defend itself against a range of threats ...


The Germans are sending helmets (leaving some Ukrainians .... underwhelmed) - maybe that sort of stuff?


----------



## Czech_pivo

Eye In The Sky said:


> Just out of curiosity or as an some kind of indicator as to the GoC intent/will?


The later. 
Twitter feeds are saying they’ve stayed around d for some extra training, some of which was with Asterix, which begs the question of why?


----------



## Czech_pivo

Eye In The Sky said:


> Just out of curiosity or as an some kind of indicator as to the GoC intent/will?


Have a read, as of this morning,
Curious as to why it had to load ammunition over the weekend, after it officially had left Halifax for the Black Sea. Why is that? You leave on the 19th to fanfare but then a few days later you come back and are then loaded with ammunition. Why not postpone the official the departure until everything is ready and done.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1484628447045758976
Also this tweet from today. You can that they are still in port.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1486307989627756544


----------



## Good2Golf

Did they also load the   #PutinLetsTalk  flag?


----------



## Eye In The Sky

I could be wrong, but I believe I’ve read or heard about similar activity before;  depart, do some workups “locally”, back into Bedford basin for some ammo, and then depart Canadian waters.  

I’ve no SA on what is actually going on;  just a thought.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Eye In The Sky said:


> I could be wrong, but I believe I’ve read or heard about similar activity before;  depart, do some workups “locally”, back into Bedford basin for some ammo, and then depart Canadian waters.
> 
> I’ve no SA on what is actually going on;  just a thought.


Very well could be the case but it’s a bit misleading isn’t it? New reports show that your leaving when in fact you’re hanging around for X days, slipping into port and then finally leaving. 
In the end it doesn’t matter really but in the case they won’t get to the Black Sea until mid/late the first week of Feb right when things may get dicey.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

yes, it’s not exactly accurate PA activity.


----------



## Quirky

Czech_pivo said:


> In the end it doesn’t matter really but in the case they won’t get to the Black Sea until mid/late the first week of Feb right when things may get dicey.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> Very well could be the case but it’s a bit misleading isn’t it? New reports show that your leaving when in fact you’re hanging around for X days, slipping into port and then finally leaving ...





Eye In The Sky said:


> yes, it’s not exactly accurate PA activity.


Info-machine wording was:  _"... the departure of HMCS Montreal for Op REASSURANCE, a 6-month overseas deployment in support of NATO assurance measures in the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions ..."_  OPSEC about routine aside, they could still be "on their way" even if they back-and-forth a bit - they didn't say they were going _straight_ there, right? 😉


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Yup, maybe they’re already pushed to CJOC.  I’ve been on Dets that have chopped to CJOC but we were in a holding pattern at a Wing while all the diplo stuff was playing out.


----------



## armrdsoul77

Needy Ukrainian Reserve Units Could Be Armed With Pre-World War II DP-27 Machine Guns
					

Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces personnel are in need of guns and the antique Soviet DP-27 machine gun might help solve that problem.




					www.thedrive.com


----------



## MilEME09

armrdsoul77 said:


> Needy Ukrainian Reserve Units Could Be Armed With Pre-World War II DP-27 Machine Guns
> 
> 
> Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces personnel are in need of guns and the antique Soviet DP-27 machine gun might help solve that problem.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedrive.com


old guns can still kill you, one would think we could supply enough small arms to them. It also goes to the desperation in the Ukrainian MoD, and civilians that people are buying up guns, any guns to arm them selves for a Russian invasion, it is stories like that, that send the signal to Russia that if they go in, they will be made to pay for every inch of Ukraine in blood.


----------



## Underway

Eye In The Sky said:


> I could be wrong, but I believe I’ve read or heard about similar activity before;  depart, do some workups “locally”, back into Bedford basin for some ammo, and then depart Canadian waters.
> 
> I’ve no SA on what is actually going on;  just a thought.


That happens fairly often if you aren't in a rush and need to pick up/drop off something or someone. Any number of reasons could have caused this from a fight in the mess, medical situation, greeting an important person to joint the TG, parts pick up, refuel after workups etc.. etc...


----------



## Czech_pivo

Sky News understands that NATO allies have been mulling the possibility of setting up new 1,000-strong battlegroups in Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia.

France has offered to lead any new battlegroup in Romania

They would be similar to so-called Enhanced Forward Presence deployments in the three Baltic states and Poland.









						Google News
					

Comprehensive up-to-date news coverage, aggregated from sources all over the world by Google News.




					news.google.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

armrdsoul77 said:


> Needy Ukrainian Reserve Units Could Be Armed With Pre-World War II DP-27 Machine Guns
> 
> 
> Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces personnel are in need of guns and the antique Soviet DP-27 machine gun might help solve that problem.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedrive.com



In other news, Ukrainian Reg Force centralizes all DP-27 MGs for annual courses and returns only half to Reserve units, broken


----------



## Jarnhamar

So in the 7 years we've collectively been there training these guys they haven't been producing or buying weapons and equipment?

Why would we train them if we didn't assume Russia would invade. Seems like bad logistics planning.


----------



## MilEME09

Jarnhamar said:


> So in the 7 years we've collectively been there training these guys they haven't been producing or buying weapons and equipment?
> 
> Why would we train them if we didn't assume Russia would invade. Seems like bad logistics planning.


part of the problem is, all of Ukraine's heavy industry is in the east, some of it is just gone in the occupation zone, or near it. so in 7 years they have been rebuilding, retoolings, designing new kit, etc... Karkiv for example has a tank plant they have retooled to bring old MBT's back to life, and manufacture new BTR's. If Russia invades, they will loose all their heavy industry, Ukraine will no longer be able to produce arms for them selves at all, and become a 90% agricultural economy.


----------



## FJAG

Jarnhamar said:


> So in the 7 years we've collectively been there training these guys they haven't been producing or buying weapons and equipment?
> 
> Why would we train them if we didn't assume Russia would invade. Seems like bad logistics planning.


Just a quick grab from Wikipedia:



> Strategic and defense complex[edit]​Ukraine's defense industry is organized around Ukroboronprom, a state owned conglomerate of over 130 companies. These companies include Soviet era giants such as Ivchenko-Progress aircraft design bureau that was opened in 1945, to newer companies such as RPC Fort which came into existence in the 1990s. Ukraine is also among the top 10 arms exporters in the world. The signing of recent large contracts may put Ukraine into 6th place among biggest arms traders, after the United States, Russian Federation, France, Germany and Israel.[126] The output of Ukrainian defense plants grew 58% in 2009, with largest growth reported by aircraft builders (77%) and ship builders (71%).[126]
> 
> In 2013, Ukraine's defense sector manufactured a total of 11.7 billion UAH worth of goods, 10 billion UAH of which were exported. In the first 9 months of 2014 Ukraine's defense sector produced a record 13 billion UAH worth of goods, the increase was largely due to government orders for the War in Donbass.[127]



There's an CBO brief on the Ukrainian Forces here: 



> https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11862





> Armed Forces of Ukraine - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org



In short, the full-time Army numbers around 145-150,000 with upgraded equipment organized into roughly 29 various manoeuvre and CS brigades and a reserve which is building and planned to grow into an additional 140,000 formed into 150 battalions in 25 local brigades.

Their equipment holdings are listed here:



> List of equipment of the Ukrainian Ground Forces - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org



They've got a lot more than we have - much of it older - on a budget a quarter of ours but nonetheless 3% of their GDP.

🍻


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Czech_pivo said:


> Sky News understands that NATO allies have been mulling the possibility of setting up new 1,000-strong battlegroups in Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia.
> 
> France has offered to lead any new battlegroup in Romania
> 
> They would be similar to so-called Enhanced Forward Presence deployments in the three Baltic states and Poland.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Google News
> 
> 
> Comprehensive up-to-date news coverage, aggregated from sources all over the world by Google News.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.google.com



And, if this article has any truth to it, we're not _really_ part of the planning...

Trudeau excluded from U.S. teleconference over Ukraine conflict​
The article puts a bit of a spin on the original Tweet, of course...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1485652537105600516


----------



## Eye In The Sky

MilEME09 said:


> If Russia invades, they will loose all their heavy industry, Ukraine will no longer be able to produce arms for them selves at all, and become a 90% agricultural economy slave-labour force producing whatever their jailer tells them to?


----------



## FJAG

Eye In The Sky said:


> Trudeau excluded from U.S. teleconference over Ukraine conflict​



Are we surprised?






🍻


----------



## Czech_pivo

Agent provocateur?

Soldier opens fire, kills five guards at Ukraine military plant​_The attacker opened fire with an assault rifle then fled the scene before being captured by police hours later._









						Soldier opens fire, kills five guards at Ukraine military plant
					

A Ukrainian National Guard soldier opened fire on security guards at a military factory in central Ukraine for reasons unknown, killing five people and wounding five others before fleeing. The incident took place in the early hours of Thursday in Dnipro at the Pivdenmash missile factory (Yuzhny...




					news.google.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Eye In The Sky said:


> And, if this article has any truth to it, we're not _really_ part of the planning...
> 
> Trudeau excluded from U.S. teleconference over Ukraine conflict​
> The article puts a bit of a spin on the original Tweet, of course...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1485652537105600516


Agreed CAN's a bit player on this issue (especially seeing ITA there), but if it _was_ a meeting of "European" leaders, is Canada part of Europe now?  I notice none of the Baltic countries were invited - aren't they "Transatlantic Allies" too?

That said, I haven't seen any missives re:  Team USA consulting with PMJT & Co., either.


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Agreed CAN's a bit player on this issue (especially seeing ITA there), but if it _was_ a meeting of "European" leaders, is Canada part of Europe now?  I notice none of the Baltic countries were invited - aren't they "Transatlantic Allies" too?
> 
> That said, I haven't seen any missives re:  Team USA consulting with PMJT & Co., either.


Maybe JT is off looking for that Heavy Bde that Canada has promised NATO...


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Maybe JT is off looking for that Heavy Bde that Canada has promised NATO...


Yeah, that would chisel a ton of time off one's calendar


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Yeah, that would chisel a ton of time off one's calendar


He might find it in the box of Shoreline, or maybe in the other box of Grid Squares...


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Agreed CAN's a bit player on this issue (especially seeing ITA there), but if it _was_ a meeting of "European" leaders, is Canada part of Europe now?  I notice none of the Baltic countries were invited - aren't they "Transatlantic Allies" too?
> 
> That said, I haven't seen any missives re:  Team USA consulting with PMJT & Co., either.


Interested in getting a sense of when people think the last time Canada wasn't considered 'a bit player'.


----------



## Good2Golf

Czech_pivo said:


> Interested in getting a sense of when people think the last time Canada wasn't considered 'a bit player'.


AFG and IRQ.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Good2Golf said:


> AFG and IRQ.


AFG I could see but IRQ is interesting.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> AFG I could see but IRQ is interesting.


Yeah, IRQ is definitely not on the list


----------



## Jarnhamar

FJAG said:


> Just a quick grab from Wikipedia:
> 
> 
> 
> There's an CBO brief on the Ukrainian Forces here:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In short, the full-time Army numbers around 145-150,000 with upgraded equipment organized into roughly 29 various manoeuvre and CS brigades and a reserve which is building and planned to grow into an additional 140,000 formed into 150 battalions in 25 local brigades.
> 
> Their equipment holdings are listed here:
> 
> 
> 
> They've got a lot more than we have - much of it older - on a budget a quarter of ours but nonetheless 3% of their GDP.
> 
> 🍻




Great info thank you. Ukraine formalized their separation with a referendum in 1991 so they've had 31 years knowing they have a very aggressive neighbor and should build up their forces. After Russia's land grab 8 years ago I figured it would have remotivated them.


----------



## dimsum

Czech_pivo said:


> AFG I could see but IRQ is interesting.


At one time we had a 6-pack of fighters, 2 CP-140s, tactical helicopters, and airlift supporting folks in country.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Czech_pivo said:


> Interested in getting a sense of when people think the last time Canada wasn't considered 'a bit player'.



AFG ?  And before that Korea.


----------



## dimsum

Halifax Tar said:


> AFG ?  And before that Korea.


uh, UNEF?  Maybe not "militarily" but definitely diplomatically/politically.


----------



## Halifax Tar

dimsum said:


> uh, UNEF?  Maybe not "militarily" but definitely diplomatically/politically.



Sure, if you say so.  I don't see it.


----------



## Czech_pivo

HMCS Montreal is off the entrance to Halifax harbour as of 2 mins ago.





__





						MarineTraffic: Global Ship Tracking Intelligence | AIS Marine Traffic
					

MarineTraffic Live Ships Map. Discover information and vessel positions for vessels around the world. Search the MarineTraffic ships database of more than 550000 active and decommissioned vessels. Search for popular ships globally. Find locations of ports and ships using the near Real Time ships...



					www.marinetraffic.com


----------



## Halifax Tar

Czech_pivo said:


> HMCS Montreal is off the entrance to Halifax harbour as of 2 mins ago.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> MarineTraffic: Global Ship Tracking Intelligence | AIS Marine Traffic
> 
> 
> MarineTraffic Live Ships Map. Discover information and vessel positions for vessels around the world. Search the MarineTraffic ships database of more than 550000 active and decommissioned vessels. Search for popular ships globally. Find locations of ports and ships using the near Real Time ships...
> 
> 
> 
> www.marinetraffic.com



It isn't as uncommon as it should be for a ship to "deploy" and then hang around the AOR completing tests and trials. 

As well she had to load ammunition that past weather conditions wouldn't allow for. 

Other than that I wont say anymore.  But this isn't completely out of the ordinary.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> HMCS Montreal is off the entrance to Halifax harbour as of 2 mins ago.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> MarineTraffic: Global Ship Tracking Intelligence | AIS Marine Traffic
> 
> 
> MarineTraffic Live Ships Map. Discover information and vessel positions for vessels around the world. Search the MarineTraffic ships database of more than 550000 active and decommissioned vessels. Search for popular ships globally. Find locations of ports and ships using the near Real Time ships...
> 
> 
> 
> www.marinetraffic.com


I know this is going to sound like me being unappreciative of what the Navy does, and I swear I'm not trying to be, but assuming that HMCS Montreal made it to the black sea tomorrow, what effect does this have on Russian tanks, artillery planes and infantry in any potential invasion?

What is 1 Canadian Frigate going to do nomatter when it shows up?


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> I know this is going to sound like me being unappreciative of what the Navy does, and I swear I'm not trying to be, but assuming that HMCS Montreal made it to the black sea tomorrow, what effect does this have on Russian tanks, artillery planes and infantry in any potential invasion?
> 
> What is 1 Canadian Frigate going to do nomatter when it shows up?


It will be one ship among many NATO ships, French, Spanish, American, patrolling in the Black Sea.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Altair said:


> I know this is going to sound like me being unappreciative of what the Navy does, and I swear I'm not trying to be, but assuming that HMCS Montreal made it to the black sea tomorrow, what effect does this have on Russian tanks, artillery planes and infantry in any potential invasion?
> 
> What is 1 Canadian Frigate going to do nomatter when it shows up?


Two ways to look at it ....

Glass-Half-Full:  We're showing the flag & supporting allies however we can (agree or disagree with how much "however we can" can be).

Glass-Half-Empty:  If we can't do much, why go at all (and maybe doing nothing might be a better option)?


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> It will be one ship among many NATO ships, French, Spanish, American, patrolling in the Black Sea.


Uh....huh.

I mean, I get that it's a gesture of...I dunno, support maybe?

But 1 CND frigate showing up before, during or after actually means...what exactly?

Is Putin in his war room basing his decision on whether or not go go into Ukraine guns ablazing on where the HMCS Montreal is? Is this group of ships just waiting in the Mediterranean for the HMCS Montreal to show up before going into the black sea like a bunch of recruits at basic waiting for the shitbird to show up to roll call?

If not, I really don't see the fixation on it. It's completely insignificant in the grand scheme of things, like most Canadian military contributions outside of the world wars, Korea and Afghanistan.


----------



## Altair

The Bread Guy said:


> Two ways to look at it ....
> 
> Glass-Half-Full:  We're showing the flag & supporting allies however we can (agree or disagree with how much "however we can" can be).
> 
> Glass-Half-Empty:  If we can't do much, why go at all (and maybe doing nothing might be a better option)?


Glass-being-a-glass: If someone is getting beat up and all you plan to do is show up to be moral support, it doesn't really matter when you get there.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Glass-being-a-glass: If someone is getting beat up and all you plan to do is show up to be moral support, it doesn't really matter when you get there.


Ships power project - they don't do Moral Support, and they can put up a very good Air Umbrella.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Ships power project - they don't do Moral Support, and they can put up a very good Air Umbrella.


Uh....huh.

So HMCS Montreal will project enough power to prevent Russia from going into Ukraine?

I mean, if that's the case, it should probably hurry up then.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Altair said:


> Uh....huh.
> 
> So HMCS Montreal will project enough power to prevent Russia from going into Ukraine?
> 
> I mean, if that's the case, it should probably hurry up then.


Go ahead & paint me naive, but if everybody says "what difference can I make by myself?", nobody ends up going but the U.S., Russia or China.  That a better option?


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Uh....huh.
> 
> So HMCS Montreal will project enough power to prevent Russia from going into Ukraine?
> 
> I mean, if that's the case, it should probably hurry up then.


Sigh.  You love to cherry pick out of context -- as others pointed out 1 ship isn't relevant, but a Fleet is.

ESSM's have a 50km+ range, which means the Fleet can provide an AA umbrella.
The Harpoons have a ~230km range.


----------



## Halifax Tar

KevinB said:


> Sigh.  You love to cherry pick out of context -- as others pointed out 1 ship isn't relevant, but a Fleet is.
> 
> ESSM's have a 50km+ range, which means the Fleet can provide an AA umbrella.
> The Harpoons have a ~230km range.



Sadly I don't suspect many Naval units to survive long if Russia wants them at the bottom of the Black Sea...

They are a trip wire... With slim hopes of escape.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Sigh.  You love to cherry pick out of context -- as others pointed out 1 ship isn't relevant, but a Fleet is.
> 
> ESSM's have a 50km+ range, which means the Fleet can provide an AA umbrella.
> The Harpoons have a ~230km range.


I get the fleet concept, but that fleet likely projects the same or at least very similar amount of power with or without the HMCS Montreal there.

And I'm being generous because I think that fleet matters exactly 0 iota to Putin and his plans for Ukraine. If he invades he does it whether the fleet is there or not, and definitely whether the HMCS Montreal is part of that fleet at the time or not.

So if the fleet doesn't stop Russia from invading Ukraine, what good is it exactly? Moral support, that's what.


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

So give us the plan then lad....


----------



## Altair

Halifax Tar said:


> Sadly I don't suspect many Naval units to survive long if Russia wants them at the bottom of the Black Sea...
> 
> They are a trip wire... With slim hopes of escape.


Russia knows better than to sink them and they know better than to engage Russia and it plays exactly zero role in helping Ukraine in any practical way. 

Ukraine would likely trade that entire fleet being there for a few extra anti tank weapons.


----------



## Altair

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> So give us the plan then lad....


The plan or my plan?

The official plan from the West? Watch and throw fists in the air in righteous indignation as Russia invades Ukraine while doing almost exactly nothing.

My plan would have been place NATO assets in eastern Ukraine under the Budapest Memorandum and see if Russia was willing to start WW3 over it.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Russia knows better than to sink them and they know better than to engage Russia and it plays exactly zero role in helping Ukraine in any practical way.
> 
> Ukraine would likely trade that entire fleet being there for a few extra anti tank weapons.


The fleet is what is going to stop an Amphibious push across the Black Sea by Russia.





__





						Task Forces
					





					www.cusnc.navy.mil
				



   Ask yourself if you would want to tangle with that?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Can't invade before the 'Russian Sports Team' cleans up:


US suggests Winter Olympics could influence Russia's military planning in Ukraine​
Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said that the Winter Olympics in Beijing could impact Putin's thinking about potential military action, noting at a virtual European think tank event Wednesday that she thinks Chinese President Xi Jinping "would not be ecstatic if Putin chose that moment to invade Ukraine."



https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/26/politics/russia-china-olympics-ukraine/index.html


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> The fleet is what is going to stop an Amphibious push across the Black Sea by Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Task Forces
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cusnc.navy.mil
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ask yourself if you would want to tangle with that?


Pfffffft.

Is the task force going to shoot Russian ships partaking in amphibious operations? 

I doubt it.


----------



## KevinB

It's always about Hockey...


----------



## Altair

daftandbarmy said:


> Can't invade before the 'Russian Sports Team' cleans up:
> 
> 
> US suggests Winter Olympics could influence Russia's military planning in Ukraine​Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said that the Winter Olympics in Beijing could impact Putin's thinking about potential military action, noting at a virtual European think tank event Wednesday that she thinks Chinese President Xi Jinping "would not be ecstatic if Putin chose that moment to invade Ukraine."
> https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/26/politics/russia-china-olympics-ukraine/index.html


Yeah, but the later the invasion starts, the less important oil and gas exports being cut off from Europe is going to matter as spring hits.

If the invasion isn't a go by February 20th-25th it may as well not happen.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Pfffffft.
> 
> Is the task force going to shoot Russian ships partaking in amphibious operations?
> 
> I doubt it.


Not specifically a first strike - but deter, annoy, run over, accidentally drop a mine field etc.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Not specifically a first strike - but deter, annoy, run over, accidentally drop a mine field etc.


But you see, KevinB, the plot of this story is known.









						Biden Says ‘No Intention’ To Deploy U.S. Troops In Ukraine– Here’s What The U.S. Is Prepared To Do Instead
					

Biden warned of possible personal sanctions against Vladimir Putin should the Russian president move forward with an invasion of Ukraine.




					www.google.com
				




No troops, no conflict, nothing that will actually deter Russia will be done. Not by the Americans, definitely not by the Europeans. So they will watch as the Russians sail politely by and do whatever they are going to do.

There is no strategic ambiguity here, just empty power projection. It's a show,  I'm just not sure who for. Either for domestic consumption, to show people back home that they did something, or for Ukraine....to show that they did something.

It's not for Russia, who already know that the west will do nothing.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> But you see, KevinB, the plot of this story is known.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Biden Says ‘No Intention’ To Deploy U.S. Troops In Ukraine– Here’s What The U.S. Is Prepared To Do Instead
> 
> 
> Biden warned of possible personal sanctions against Vladimir Putin should the Russian president move forward with an invasion of Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.google.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> No troops, no conflict, nothing that will actually deter Russia will be done. Not by the Americans, definitely not by the Europeans. So they will watch as the Russians sail politely by and do whatever they are going to do.
> 
> There is no strategic ambiguity here, just empty power projection. It's a show,  I'm just not sure who for. Either for domestic consumption, to show people back home that they did something, or for Ukraine....to show that they did something.
> 
> It's not for Russia, who already know that the west will do nothing.


Land has no Grey area -- the Water is always Grey.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Land has no Grey area -- the Water is always Grey.


What isn't Grey is that the USA will not risk blood and treasure over Ukraine. That's clear.

The Europeans are even less likely to risk blood, treasure and more importantly heating their homes.

So they will "project power" while never coming close to actually doing anything with said power.

Like I said, it's a show, the ships are the actors, everyone knows the plot (the ships will do nothing) so why does it matter when the actors show up?

Edit: Because people like looking way back in the past, it reminds me of the wholehearted defense of Poland by the western allies in WW2. Didn't send troops to Poland, didn't defend Poland from Russia, but they did do one half hearted offensive into the saar region and left shortly there after but they got to say they did "something". Not much good it did Poland being split between the victors after 4 weeks.


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> Land has no Grey area -- the Water is always Grey.



You've never walked the Irish border with Northern Ireland, have you


----------



## Underway

Altair said:


> What isn't Grey is that the USA will not risk blood and treasure over Ukraine. That's clear.
> 
> The Europeans are even less likely to risk blood, treasure and more importantly heating their homes.
> 
> So they will "project power" while never coming close to actually doing anything with said power.
> 
> Like I said, it's a show, the ships are the actors, everyone knows the plot (the ships will do nothing) so why does it matter when the actors show up?
> 
> Edit: Because people like looking way back in the past, it reminds me of the wholehearted defense of Poland by the western allies in WW2. Didn't send troops to Poland, didn't defend Poland from Russia, but they did do one half hearted offensive into the saar region and left shortly there after but they got to say they did "something". Not much good it did Poland being split between the victors after 4 weeks.


They'll do nothing until they do something.  That's the best part about the Navy.  It's not what you do, it's what you can do.  In 30 seconds a warship can switch from just showing the flag to putting holes into things.

Besides, Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey all appreciate extra NATO ships to guard their flanks.  This is just as much about making skittish NATO allies feel better as it is about making Ukraine feel better.


----------



## Altair

Underway said:


> They'll do nothing until they do something.  That's the best part about the Navy.  It's not what you do, it's what you can do.  In 30 seconds a warship can switch from just showing the flag to putting holes into things.
> 
> Besides, Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey all appreciate extra NATO ships to guard their flanks.  This is just as much about making skittish NATO allies feel better as it is about making Ukraine feel better.


Ah, it's a show for those NATO allies.

Okay, that makes sense.

I don't see Ukraine feeling much better.

I don't see the Ukrainians seeing Russian tanks rolling on Kiev will feel the least bit reassured that NATO has ships in the Black Sea doing nothing.


----------



## MilEME09

Underway said:


> They'll do nothing until they do something.  That's the best part about the Navy.  It's not what you do, it's what you can do.  In 30 seconds a warship can switch from just showing the flag to putting holes into things.
> 
> Besides, Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey all appreciate extra NATO ships to guard their flanks.  This is just as much about making skittish NATO allies feel better as it is about making Ukraine feel better.


A few anti ship missile battalions on Romania's coast, and some patriot batteries outta do it.


----------



## Rifleman62

> The government also announcement a shipment of *non-lethal *equipment to Ukraine, intelligence sharing, and support to combat cyberattacks.



Sums up Trudeau's impression/desire  of the CAF.

Impression:  an idea, feeling, or opinion about something or someone, especially one formed without conscious thought or on the basis of little evidence.

Desire: a strong feeling of wanting to have something or wishing for something to happen.


----------



## Blackadder1916

Czech_pivo said:


> Interested in getting a sense of when people think the last time Canada wasn't considered 'a bit player'.



May 7, 1945


----------



## Halifax Tar

Rifleman62 said:


> Sums up Trudeau's impression/desire  of the CAF.
> 
> Impression:  an idea, feeling, or opinion about something or someone, especially one formed without conscious thought or on the basis of little evidence.
> 
> Desire: a strong feeling of wanting to have something or wishing for something to happen.



Does a _"post nation state"_ need a military ?


----------



## Eye In The Sky

The Bread Guy said:


> Agreed CAN's a bit player on this issue (especially seeing ITA there), but if it _was_ a meeting of "European" leaders, is Canada part of Europe now?  I notice none of the Baltic countries were invited - aren't they "Transatlantic Allies" too?
> 
> That said, I haven't seen any missives re:  Team USA consulting with PMJT & Co., either.



Agree - that’s why I said the “puts a spin” part.  So, not part of Europe for sure and also looks like no one is interested in his thoughts regardless. 🙂


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Interested in getting a sense of when people think the last time Canada wasn't considered 'a bit player'.


As a Nation or as a Military, or as looking with sympathy at what Canada can offer from the empty cupboard?


daftandbarmy said:


> You've never walked the Irish border with Northern Ireland, have you


You knew what I meant...

   I'm not a boat person, but I've seen a lot of bumping and jostling with vessels - and you can cause a lot of mayhem on the water  - that isn't necessarily what could be called deliberate use of force, I mean accidents happen.
  Whereas on the ground - stepping into someones territory with weapons uninvited or picking up a rifle to help someone defend their territory is pretty cut and dried.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Altair said:


> Yeah, IRQ is definitely not on the list


Ya?  How much time do you have on that op?  None?  Ever even been there?


----------



## Eye In The Sky

dimsum said:


> At one time we had a 6-pack of fighters, 2 CP-140s, tactical helicopters, and airlift supporting folks in country.



And personnel deployed to other locations in Kuwait, Iraq (SOF in Erbil pretty much from the get go), people down at the ISRD, people in Targetting, the CAOC, the OS Hub.

Later it transitioned and we had boots on the ground in the “trg mission” in locations we both operated over when ISIS had control of those places.   I remember seeing the first pic of our TacHel flying near the dam in Mosul and thinking how weird THAT was after working over / around Mosul in late ‘16 on R4. 

And, the NATO mission later on…

End state, there’s a fairly significant number of CAF members with GCSs and GSMs w/ bars from that op. 

And 1 KIA - RIP Sgt Doiron.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Eye In The Sky said:


> And personnel deployed to other locations in Kuwait, Iraq (SOF in Erbil pretty much from the get go), people down at the ISRD, people in Targetting, the CAOC, the OS Hub.
> 
> Later it transitioned and we had boots on the ground in the “trg mission” in locations we operated over that when ISIS had control of those places.
> 
> And, the NATO mission later on…
> 
> End state, there’s a fairly significant number of CAF members with GCSs and GSMs w/ bars from that op.
> 
> And 1 KIA - RIP Sgt Doiron.


Thanks for breaking that down, I was aware that we are present in IRQ but other than training the Kurds and the SOF being there I didn't know the other pies we had our fingers in.


----------



## dimsum

Altair said:


> Yeah, IRQ is definitely not on the list


What's your reasoning for that?  Especially with @Eye In The Sky comments below.



Eye In The Sky said:


> And personnel deployed to other locations in Kuwait, Iraq (SOF in Erbil pretty much from the get go), people down at the ISRD, people in Targetting, the CAOC, the OS Hub.
> 
> Later it transitioned and we had boots on the ground in the “trg mission” in locations we operated over that when ISIS had control of those places.
> 
> And, the NATO mission later on…
> 
> End state, there’s a fairly significant number of CAF members with GCSs and GSMs w/ bars from that op.
> 
> And 1 KIA - RIP Sgt Doiron.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Altair said:


> Uh....huh.
> 
> So HMCS Montreal will project enough power to prevent Russia from going into Ukraine?
> 
> I mean, if that's the case, it should probably hurry up then.



One of your weaknesses is failure to assess Canada/NATO in any favourable manner. Putin doesn’t have to care about them, he can do what he wants with no care or concern for consequences.

MON is only a single FFH.  What can a single unit possibly do to stop a superior force right?

You incorporate way too many absolutes in your estimates.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Have a read of some of the drivel TASS is currently putting out.

LPR records ramped-up activities by Ukrainian army, particularly in Donbass, official says​








						LPR records ramped-up activities by Ukrainian army, particularly in Donbass, official says
					

According to Yan Leshchenko, the 55th Separate Artillery Brigade, which will be deployed to Donbass, is conducting drills at the 239th general military training range near the Orlovka settlement




					tass.com


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Thanks for breaking that down, I was aware that we are present in IRQ but other than training the Kurds and the SOF being there I didn't know the other pies we had our fingers in.


Even earlier - after a successful PR in Baghdad by DHTC, when directly asked if JTF-2 had left Iraq, PM Harper, responded by "All JTF-2 personnel have left Baghdad..."
    There are some OS pics with the Brits of some very Canadian looking stuff -->  look up the SAS guys captured in Basra


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Altair said:


> I get the fleet concept, but that fleet likely projects the same or at least very similar amount of power with or without the HMCS Montreal there.
> 
> And I'm being generous because I think that fleet matters exactly 0 iota to Putin and his plans for Ukraine. If he invades he does it whether the fleet is there or not, and definitely whether the HMCS Montreal is part of that fleet at the time or not.
> 
> So if the fleet doesn't stop Russia from invading Ukraine, what good is it exactly? Moral support, that's what.



You don’t really have any idea at all about anything “joint ops” related do you?

Naval surface and air units can “sense” and move.  That means they can also impact denial of same to the enemy, just by being somewhere. 

I’m the skipper of the MON.  I can launch my MH, have it perform passive and/or active ISR tasks, send info back real-time to Mother and feed that into the TF.

If you don’t appreciate the importance of that alone, I think that says a lot about the difference between having an opinion and having an informed opinion.

1 sensor in the right place at the right time can change the “worlds opinion”.


----------



## MilEME09

OSCE has reported over 400 violations in the past 24 hours, mostly on the rebel side including tanks and arty being massed close to the contact zone. Given some kit coming from eastern Siberia has their markings removed, I'm willing to bet some are in Ukraine right now.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> Have a read of some of the drivel TASS is currently putting out.
> 
> LPR records ramped-up activities by Ukrainian army, particularly in Donbass, official says​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> LPR records ramped-up activities by Ukrainian army, particularly in Donbass, official says
> 
> 
> According to Yan Leshchenko, the 55th Separate Artillery Brigade, which will be deployed to Donbass, is conducting drills at the 239th general military training range near the Orlovka settlement
> 
> 
> 
> 
> tass.com


... as well as the rebel info-machine and fellow-traveller outlets (all links in English to archived versions, not to servers in RUS or occupied UKR)

*"Ukrainian armed forces intensify preparations to invade Donbass - Basurin"*
*"Ukrainian nationalists intensify recruitment and train assault squads"* 
*"DPR Ministry of State Security seizes ammo, explosives from Ukrainian arms cache"*
*"DPR Intelligence: Ukraine sends more ammo to all three axes in Donbass"*
*"The Ukrainian army is stockpiling heavy weapons and mine clearance equipment in the Donbass, and the US is evacuating its embassy in Kiev"*


----------



## Czech_pivo

Eye In The Sky said:


> You don’t really have any idea at all about anything “joint ops” related do you?
> 
> Naval surface and air units can “sense” and move.  That means they can also impact denial of same to the enemy, just by being somewhere.
> 
> I’m the skipper of the MON.  I can launch my MH, have it perform passive and/or active ISR tasks, send info back real-time to Mother and feed that into the TF.
> 
> If you don’t appreciate the importance of that alone, I think that says a lot about the difference between having an opinion and having an informed opinion.
> 
> 1 sensor in the right place at the right time can change the “worlds opinion”.


Along those lines, subs are not permitted to access the Black Sea via the Straits, correct?


----------



## armrdsoul77

KevinB said:


> The fleet is what is going to stop an Amphibious push across the Black Sea by Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Task Forces
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cusnc.navy.mil
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ask yourself if you would want to tangle with that?


TF-56 Expeditionary Combat Forces has marine mammals on their roster. Do they really use dolphins? When they deploy do they just swim alongside or do they have onboard accommodation? Does Canada employ animals?


----------



## Kilted

armrdsoul77 said:


> TF-56 Expeditionary Combat Forces has marine mammals on their roster. Do they really use dolphins? When they deploy do they just swim alongside or do they have onboard accommodation? Does Canada employ animals?
> View attachment 68280


Only in Ottawa.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Czech_pivo said:


> Along those lines, subs are not permitted to access the Black Sea via the Straits, correct?



Assuming you mean Bosphorus…









						Russian Black Sea Sub Deployments to Mediterranean Could Violate Treaty - USNI News
					

The Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet recently has been deploying its submarines to the Mediterranean, despite a decades-old international treaty which many thought would prevent those deployments. The Montreux Convention, agreed to in 1936, prohibits submarines from passing through the Bosporus...




					news.usni.org


----------



## Spencer100

Kilted said:


> Only in Ottawa.


Well JT may need his troops in Ottawa soon....A "just watch me" moment is coming?

But are not Angry Sea Bass (TM) the preferred option now?


----------



## Czech_pivo

Eye In The Sky said:


> Assuming you mean Bosphorus…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian Black Sea Sub Deployments to Mediterranean Could Violate Treaty - USNI News
> 
> 
> The Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet recently has been deploying its submarines to the Mediterranean, despite a decades-old international treaty which many thought would prevent those deployments. The Montreux Convention, agreed to in 1936, prohibits submarines from passing through the Bosporus...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.usni.org


Yes I did.  So zero chance of us deploying a Vic with MON to the Black Sea?


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Spencer100 said:


> Well JT may need his troops in Ottawa soon....



Huh?


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Czech_pivo said:


> Yes I did.  So zero chance of us deploying a Vic with MON to the Black Sea?



I’m far from even “amateur status” when it comes to that stuff, but a read of Art 12 and 13 seems to make it possible? 🤷🏻‍♂️


----------



## Czech_pivo

Eye In The Sky said:


> I’m far from even “amateur status” when it comes to that stuff, but a read of Art 12 and 13 seems to make it possible? 🤷🏻‍♂️


Just curious, because as you mentioned earlier, a single asset in the right place, at the right time can tip the scales.

We could even try the angle of it needing repairs in Constanta.


----------



## Kirkhill

From 2019









						For Russia, war with the US never ended — and likely never will
					

During peacetime, war is simply conducted by non-military means through clandestine influence.




					thehill.com
				




From 2021









						NDC-Research
					






					www.ndc.nato.int
				




This is a game of cat and mouse with no end in sight.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Eye In The Sky said:


> Huh?


Just feeding the "martial law totalitarianism in Ottawa" narrative, it appears.


----------



## Altair

Eye In The Sky said:


> You don’t really have any idea at all about anything “joint ops” related do you?
> 
> Naval surface and air units can “sense” and move.  That means they can also impact denial of same to the enemy, just by being somewhere.
> 
> I’m the skipper of the MON.  I can launch my MH, have it perform passive and/or active ISR tasks, send info back real-time to Mother and feed that into the TF.
> 
> If you don’t appreciate the importance of that alone, I think that says a lot about the difference between having an opinion and having an informed opinion.
> 
> 1 sensor in the right place at the right time can change the “worlds opinion”.


I get area denial.

I get the sensors.

I still think Ukraine would trade all of that for more anti tank weapons on the grounds or actual allies helping it. 

I don't see what the naval TF can do to prevent Russian tanks or planes or artillery or soldiers from inflicting a hell of a lot of pain on Ukraine.

Obviously not your fault, you will do what you can do with the mandate you're given, I just don't see that as being sufficient given the situation facing Ukraine.

That said, best of luck to you and your crew.


----------



## Blackadder1916

Eye In The Sky said:


> Assuming you mean Bosphorus…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian Black Sea Sub Deployments to Mediterranean Could Violate Treaty - USNI News
> 
> 
> The Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet recently has been deploying its submarines to the Mediterranean, despite a decades-old international treaty which many thought would prevent those deployments. The Montreux Convention, agreed to in 1936, prohibits submarines from passing through the Bosporus...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.usni.org



The term "straits" in relation to those connected waterways is defined in the subject treaty CONVENTION REGARDING THE REGIME OF THE STRAITS. SIGNED AT MONTREUX, JULY 20TH, 1936. (go to p. 215 of the pdf)

". . . Straits of the Dardanelles, the Sea of Marmora and the Bosphorus comprised under the general term " Straits " . . ."


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> I get area denial.
> 
> I get the sensors.
> 
> I still think Ukraine would trade all of that for more anti tank weapons on the grounds or actual allies helping it.
> 
> I don't see what the naval TF can do to prevent Russian tanks or planes or artillery or soldiers from inflicting a hell of a lot of pain on Ukraine.


The Russians have staged a lot of Amphibious assets in the Crimea - which would allow them to do a Inchon type landing and encircle some of the Ukrainian forces.

    With a NATO fleet in the AO, it makes it much riskier to do that for Russia, as the firepower available to the fleet is very significant.
  What they are doing is effectively freezing some of Russias assets off the table - the NATO fleet doesn't even have to do much - their sensors will pass info to the "Ukrainian" missiles.




Altair said:


> Obviously not your fault, you will do what you can do with the mandate you're given, I just don't see that as being sufficient given the situation facing Ukraine.
> 
> That said, best of luck to you and your crew.


He's not the CO of the MON, he was just explaining what could be done.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Czech_pivo said:


> the angle of it needing repairs…



~ the rest of the world hearing that ~


----------



## Altair

dimsum said:


> What's your reasoning for that?  Especially with @Eye In The Sky comments below.


I'm sorry, did we not hear grumbling that Canada pulled it's fighters from the air campaign early and wasn't doing enough in the fight versus ISIL and had to be begged to leave assets in the region?


----------



## Fabius

I don't think it would be the 5th Fleet involved though if Russia does anything. More interesting to watch what the 2nd and 6th Fleets do, especially the movements of Destroy Squadron 60 ( TF 65)  with their 9 Destroyers in the Med.
Although movement of the 5th Fleet CSG into the Med to link up with TF 65 is possible.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> The Russians have staged a lot of Amphibious assets in the Crimea - which would allow them to do a Inchon type landing and encircle some of the Ukrainian forces.
> 
> With a NATO fleet in the AO, it makes it much riskier to do that for Russia, as the firepower available to the fleet is very significant.
> What they are doing is effectively freezing some of Russias assets off the table - the NATO fleet doesn't even have to do much - their sensors will pass info to the "Ukrainian" missiles.
> 
> 
> 
> He's not the CO of the MON, he was just explaining what could be done.


I will await the potential outbreak of hostilities and the Russian response to this fleet.

Maybe you're right and they won't launch any amphibious operations. Maybe they go over land instead. Or maybe they just do their amphibious ops anyways  regardless of any naval TF.

I don't know anymore than you in that regard, we shall see how things play out.

Tis my opinion however that with NATO making it clear from the get go that they would not be honoring the Budapest Memorandum,  that Russia will probably do whatever it wants with little to no pushback, so my expectations of any naval TF are low.


----------



## KevinB

Fabius said:


> I don't think it would be the 5th Fleet involved though if Russia does anything. More interesting to watch what the 2nd and 6th Fleets do, especially the movements of Destroy Squadron 60 ( TF 65)  with their 9 Destroyers in the Med.
> Although movement of the 5th Fleet CSG into the Med to link up with TF 65 is possible.


5th is apparently going to go, maybe just the surge the CSG.
   They seem to have scrubbed some stuff off their webpage in the last 24hrs though.   TF-50's page now 404 errors.


----------



## Spencer100

Eye In The Sky said:


> Huh?


Just having some fun.  I guess not as funny I think.  But interesting days!


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Altair said:


> That said, best of luck to you and your crew.





KevinB said:


> He’s not the CO of the MON, he was just explaining what could be done.



I hope I’m not at least.   I’m getting older and forgetful but man I’d feel stupid if they’re waiting for me in Hfx while I sit here watching CSI re-runs.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Altair said:


> I'm sorry, did we not hear grumbling that Canada pulled it's fighters from the air campaign early and wasn't doing enough in the fight versus ISIL and had to be begged to leave assets in the region?


 That was a snapshot in time as the mission transitioned, 7 years ago now.   We kept the LRP and AAR Dets going, added TacHel and Trans air assets and put (non-SOF) boots on the ground “NW of Baghdad”.   

I was there around that time on the tail end of R-O, no talk of ATF-I being stood down and Canada being “begged”.    

There were still plenty of bomb trucks in the BMA…and we (my crew) did co-op with Cdn fighters as late as May 2015 before we rotated out.


----------



## KevinB

Ukraine and Russia on the edge of war
					

A new build-up of Russian forces along Ukraine’s border prompts an international crisis.




					graphics.reuters.com
				




Interesting read with some graphics and incident timelines.


----------



## Altair

Eye In The Sky said:


> I hope I’m not at least.   I’m getting older and forgetful but man I’d feel stupid if they’re waiting for me in Hfx while I sit here watching CSI re-runs.


Explains why they haven't left yet.


----------



## Altair

Eye In The Sky said:


> That was a snapshot in time as the mission transitioned, 7 years ago now.   We kept the LRP and AAR Dets going, added TacHel and Trans air assets and put (non-SOF) boots on the ground “NW of Baghdad”.
> 
> I was there around that time on the tail end of R-O, no talk of ATF-I being stood down and Canada being “begged”.
> 
> There were still plenty of bomb trucks in the BMA…and we (my crew) did co-op with Cdn fighters as late as May 2015 before we rotated out.


If you insist that Canada went from participating in the air campaign in Iraq and Syria to pulling its fighter jets from the air campaign in Iraq and Syria, but still maintained enough of a presence to not be considered a bit player in the whole affair, then I suppose I'll take your word for it.

I'm not sure I have our contribution to the ISIL air campaign on par with Afghanistan or Korea or the WWs in terms of participation  but as you so politely pointed out, I wasn't there to personally judge all of them.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

It’s probably be better if we kept this thread to Ukraine stuff.  🤙🏻


----------



## KevinB

Russia not yet ready for full-scale attack says Ukraine
					

There are now more than 109,000 Russian troops near Ukraine's border, according to an assessment shared by Ukraine.




					www.militarytimes.com
				




Interesting take.

 My thoughts have always been we should have bombed the "Seperatists" as if they are simply "Seperatists" as Russia claims, they shouldn't feel bad when they get wiped out, right?


----------



## MilEME09

U.S. Rejects Russian Demand On NATO Expansion, But Offers 'Path' Out Of Ukraine Crisis
					

The United States has rejected Russia's demand to halt further NATO expansion eastward, but offered what it called a "serious diplomatic path" to resolve a heated confrontation between Moscow and the West amid a Russian military buildup near Ukraine.




					www.rferl.org


----------



## suffolkowner

With respect to Iraq did we not have a naval task force of 1 Tribal and 3 Halifax and a AOR in the Gulf?

Too bad we didn't give the Eryx and other equipment to Ukraine back in 2014/2015. Funny to read Liberal MP's riding the Harper on this at the time but still be in the same place 6/7 years later. I can't understand the delay in delivering the proposed Kurdish weapons but I guess it's just a case of the Trudeau government talking out of both sides of their mouth at the same time.

The Ukrainian military has made huge leaps forward since 2014 and supplies a lot of equipment domestically and has been upgrading approxiamately 15 tanks a month split evenly between the T-64/T-80/T-72's. They also make their own manpads and AT missiles









						ДК «Укроборонпром» — ми робимо Україну сильною!
					

Державний концерн «Укроборонпром» є стратегічним виробником озброєння та військової техніки в Україні. Концерн об’єднує підприємства оборонної промисловості держави.




					ukroboronprom.com.ua


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> U.S. Rejects Russian Demand On NATO Expansion, But Offers 'Path' Out Of Ukraine Crisis
> 
> 
> The United States has rejected Russia's demand to halt further NATO expansion eastward, but offered what it called a "serious diplomatic path" to resolve a heated confrontation between Moscow and the West amid a Russian military buildup near Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rferl.org


The most interesting aspect in reading everything that the US and NATO has said, is that while everything seems to come down on "no plans, or no intentions to sending troops" into the Ukraine at this time, is that what hasn't been said is what NATO will do IF Russia invades.
   The wiggle room some of these Politicians give themselves is large enough to drive a CVN through --- Biden could easily deploy troops into the Ukraine after a Russian invasion (as with other NATO countries) and point out they never said they wouldn't.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> The most interesting aspect in reading everything that the US and NATO has said, is that while everything seems to come down on "no plans, or no intentions to sending troops" into the Ukraine at this time, is that what hasn't been said is what NATO will do IF Russia invades.
> The wiggle room some of these Politicians give themselves is large enough to drive a CVN through --- Biden could easily deploy troops into the Ukraine after a Russian invasion (as with other NATO countries) and point out they never said they wouldn't.


I fear you think too much like a soldier and not enough like a politician.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> I fear you think too much like a soldier and not enough like a politician.


Do I think they will, no, but I think they actually craft their messages intentionally ambiguously to allow for voter response...


----------



## Lancaster

Putin has warned of 'military-technical
response' if Russia's security concerns
ignored. See video


			https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-ukraine-us-security-talks-1.6330025
		


Russia has warned NATO , does that mean war or keeping on talking?


----------



## Brad Sallows

> "What is the smallest British military force that would be of any practical assistance to you?" Wilson asked.
> 
> Like a rapier flash came Foch's reply, "A single British soldier - and we will see to it that he is killed."



- "The Guns of August", Barbara W Tuchman, p 49.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Do I think they will, no, but I think they actually craft their messages intentionally ambiguously to allow for voter response...


I mean, ya.

That would work a lot better if they didn't let the cat out of the bag earlier in the game by saying they would not send troops and will focus on sanctions, and if troop movements actually left for the possibility of this as opposed "being at the ready"

From top to bottom, the west has forgotten how to play this game.

When Russians brought tanks to border checkpoints, the west responded in kind. 

When Russians put missiles in Cuba, the west was ready to go to war over it.

Might was met with might, and the West and soviets were much more evenly matched than Russia versus the west.

If Russia put 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border, would 100,000 troops in Poland not have given Russia pause?

Nah, we get talks of sanctions and 8500 American troops on standby. So this flexible talk is just that, talk. Meaningless words tossed into the void. There is nothing to back them up, I know it, you know it, Putin knows it, Ukraine knows it.

So when I say you think too much like a soldier, I mean that you think the military has a role to play in this coming conflict. 

The politicians are maneuvering divisions of sanctions, and brigades of monetary punishment, with the spec ops of up to date Intel to feed to Ukraine.


----------



## Altair

Lancaster said:


> Putin has warned of 'military-technical
> response' if Russia's security concerns
> ignored. See video
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-ukraine-us-security-talks-1.6330025
> 
> 
> 
> Russia has warned NATO , does that mean war or keeping on talking?


If Russia backs down now it would be a unacceptable loss of face for Putin and the Russian government. 

Do we think Putin will tolerate that?


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> ... if they are simply "Seperatists" as Russia claims, they shouldn't feel bad when they get wiped out, right?


Well, now, the Russians consider a lot of folks in occupied Ukraine Russian - mostly because of streamlined citizenship processes in place for some time now.  At latest count (links to archived article from RUS state media), more than 720,000 are now Russian citizens out of (UKR estimates) of about 3.8 million in those occupied bits. That's just under one in five.

And we know how Putin & Co. feels about ... protecting the Russian diaspora ...


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Russia not yet ready for full-scale attack says Ukraine
> 
> 
> There are now more than 109,000 Russian troops near Ukraine's border, according to an assessment shared by Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.militarytimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Interesting take.
> 
> My thoughts have always been we should have bombed the "Seperatists" as if they are simply "Seperatists" as Russia claims, they shouldn't feel bad when they get wiped out, right?


Question, what are the rules of law when battling 'separatists'?


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> The most interesting aspect in reading everything that the US and NATO has said, is that while everything seems to come down on "no plans, or no intentions to sending troops" into the Ukraine at this time, is that what hasn't been said is what NATO will do IF Russia invades.
> The wiggle room some of these Politicians give themselves is large enough to drive a CVN through --- Biden could easily deploy troops into the Ukraine after a Russian invasion (as with other NATO countries) and point out they never said they wouldn't.


I sometimes think that they will do that on the west bank of the Deniper.  That river is long enough and in most places wide enough to be one hell of a natural 'Berlin Wall'.  The issue is, as someone astutely pointed out, the Ukraine would become an agricultural state and would lose to much of its treasure in terms of heavy industry and such be allowing this to occur.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> I sometimes think that they will do that on the west bank of the Deniper.  That river is long enough and in most places wide enough to be one hell of a natural 'Berlin Wall'.  The issue is, as someone astutely pointed out, the Ukraine would become an agricultural state and would lose to much of its treasure in terms of heavy industry and such be allowing this to occur.


Industry could be easily rebuilt with Western Aid, the old stuff turned to slag.



Czech_pivo said:


> Question, what are the rules of law when battling 'separatists'?


Tricky Question - and it depends on who is asking.
Paging @FJAG
   Internally - a Police action - no LOAC aspects, just internal policy (and international attitudes)

   Externally - as in NATO assistance forces looking at the Separatist issue depending on who they are and how they conduct themselves they could be viewed from Illegal Combatants - no protections, to an actual Armed Force - where rules do apply.

   From what I can see in the Ukraine - there are a bit of both - the Russian Army sorry I meant Organized Separatist Military, which is effectively an Army - with equipment and uniforms - but there are also other factions, from Criminal entities to Russian SOF, sorry I mean Irregular Ukrainian Separatists - who aren't wearing uniforms and conduction guerrilla actions -


----------



## KevinB

I should have also pointed out - if your Russians and you land "Peacekeepers" your do the whole village then...
   That's fine apparently.


----------



## MilEME09

'Every indication' Putin plans force by mid-February: US
					

The United States believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin remains poised to use force against Ukraine by mid-February despite a pressure campaign to stop him, a top diplomat said Wednesday.




					news.yahoo.com


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> 'Every indication' Putin plans force by mid-February: US
> 
> 
> The United States believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin remains poised to use force against Ukraine by mid-February despite a pressure campaign to stop him, a top diplomat said Wednesday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.yahoo.com


Strong pressure campaign is funny.

West:Stop this or we will impose sanctions!

Putin: I don't care about sanctions.

West:....stop this or we will impose sanctions!


----------



## The Bread Guy

This is the best consensus statement Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany could come up with from this week's Normandy Format*** meeting ....


> The advisors to the N4 heads of state and government, with the participation of representatives of the Foreign ministries convened in Paris on January 26, 2022.
> 
> They reaffirm that the Minsk agreements are the basis of the work of the Normandy format and are committed to reduce current disagreements on the way forward.
> 
> They support unconditional observance of the cease fire and full adherence to the measures to strengthen the cease fire of 22 July 2020 regardless of differences on other issues of the implementation of the Minsk agreements.
> 
> They discussed the importance for the TCG**** and its working groups to intensify their work with a view of swift progress in the implementation of the Minsk agreements.
> 
> They agree to meet again in two weeks in Berlin.


*** - A four-way (Ukraine, Russia, France & Germany) talking forum to try to sort things out - more here
**** - Trilateral Contact Group (a group of reps from Ukraine, Russia and the OSCE formed in 2014 to come up with diplomatic solutions - more here)


----------



## Kilted

So, I thought about this a different way.  The chances of an actual armed conflict between Russia and NATO are fairly low.  This is, in a sense a conflict over where the new Iron Curtain will sit in Europe for the next 50 years,


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> I mean, ya.
> 
> That would work a lot better if they didn't let the cat out of the bag earlier in the game by saying they would not send troops and will focus on sanctions, and if troop movements actually left for the possibility of this as opposed "being at the ready"
> 
> From top to bottom, the west has forgotten how to play this game.
> 
> When Russians brought tanks to border checkpoints, the west responded in kind.
> 
> When Russians put missiles in Cuba, the west was ready to go to war over it.
> 
> Might was met with might, and the West and soviets were much more evenly matched than Russia versus the west.
> 
> If Russia put 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border, would 100,000 troops in Poland not have given Russia pause?
> 
> Nah, we get talks of sanctions and 8500 American troops on standby. So this flexible talk is just that, talk. Meaningless words tossed into the void. There is nothing to back them up, I know it, you know it, Putin knows it, Ukraine knows it.
> 
> So when I say you think too much like a soldier, I mean that you think the military has a role to play in this coming conflict.
> 
> The politicians are maneuvering divisions of sanctions, and brigades of monetary punishment, with the spec ops of up to date Intel to feed to Ukraine.



1987

Divisions - NATO 26 - Warsaw Pact 64
Manpower - 840,000 to 1,700,000
Tanks - 14,000 to 29,300
Artillery - 4,760 to 14,300
Armed Helicopters - 540 to 1,690
Land Combat Aircraft - 2,010 to 3,560.

Challenge and Commitment white paper from SIPRI

Leaving aside that Sweden, Finland, Austria and Yugoslavia were all neutral,  that most of the Warsaw Pact is now in NATO and the USSR has broken up into a bunch of other countries, a number of which are also in NATO,  nobody can bring to the field the amount of kit that was facing off in 1987.

And we survived 45 years of that.  We're still here.

There may indeed by a bit of skirmishing but neither side can afford to bleed for long.

This is not Cold War 3, as much as Vlad would like to recreate it,  with some help from western industry.


----------



## The Bread Guy

A few intriguing tidbits ....

*"Putin’s Likely Course of Action in Ukraine: Updated Course of Action Assessment"* (Institute for the Study of War - usually a decent source of analysis)


> ... We ... currently forecast that:
> 
> Russia will not conduct a full mechanized invasion to conquer all of Ukraine this winter (unchanged).
> Russian mechanized forces will overtly deploy into occupied Donbas on a large scale by mid-February (increased likelihood).
> Russia may launch an air and missile campaign throughout unoccupied Ukraine in conjunction with an overt deployment into occupied Donbas (newly identified course of action).
> Russia may conduct limited ground incursions north and west from occupied Donbas and/or north from Crimea ....


*"Further armed conflict in Ukraine would have devastating consequences for the human rights of millions"* (Amnesty International - interesting, for sometimes pretty left-wing, anti-U.S. organization, is the generally huge focus of the statement on Russia's track record in "creating ceasefires" and less on potential for Ukraine issues)


> ... “The history of Russia’s military interventions – be it in Ukraine or Syria, or its military campaign at home in Chechnya – is tainted with blatant disregard for international humanitarian law. The Russian military repeatedly flouted the laws of war by failing to protect civilians and even attacking them directly. Russian forces have launched indiscriminate attacks, used banned weapons and sometimes apparently deliberately targeted civilians and civilian objects – a war crime,” said (AI Sec Gen) Agnès Callamard.
> 
> Amnesty International is also particularly concerned by the prospect of the creation of new militias on Ukrainian territory. Such Russia-backed armed groups in Donbas are notorious for their disregard of the rules of international humanitarian law and lack of accountability, as were the Ukrainian pro-government paramilitaries ...


Finally, one info-machine's "just checking things out (and maybe helping where I can)" is another's "bloodthirsty mercenary proving the other side's nefarious intentions" (usual vice.com caveats apply)


> An ex-U.S. soldier who came under fire for visiting the front line of the war in eastern Ukraine with the help of a far-right fighter, recently reappeared in war torn Donbas region as heightened tensions in the region near a fever pitch. Russian media wasted no time in using his presence among Ukrainian troops as proof of American mercenaries in Ukraine.
> 
> Russian state-controlled RT*** described Derrick Bales, who said he was in the 173rd Airborne Brigade and did a tour in Afghanistan, and other alleged American vets he was with as “soldiers of fortune” who went to Donbas with Ukrainian regulars. The article notes without any evidence that “Russian commentators” (they are never identified by name) say there might be American veterans currently training Ukrainian military personnel as a war looms ...


** *- links to archived version of RUS state media article


----------



## Kat Stevens

The Bread Guy said:


> SNIP
> 
> *"Further armed conflict in Ukraine would have devastating consequences for the human rights of millions"* (Amnesty International - interesting, for sometimes pretty left-wing, anti-U.S. organization, is the generally huge focus of the statement on Russia's track record in "creating ceasefires" and less on potential for Ukraine issues)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              SNIP




AI;  "There are terrible human rights abuses occurring here, something must be done!"
Something gets done.
AI;  "Well, we didn't mean THAT must be done..."


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kat Stevens said:


> AI;  "There are terrible human rights abuses occurring here, something must be done!"
> Something gets done.
> AI;  "Well, we didn't mean THAT must be done..."


Yeah, sometimes the "be careful what you wish for" rule applies ....


----------



## Good2Golf

Kat Stevens said:


> AI;  "There are terrible human rights abuses occurring here, something must be done!"
> Something gets done.
> AI;  "Well, we didn't mean THAT must be done..."


Reminds me about Jim Jeffries, the Aussie comedian, piece about his gig in Iraq, pointing out to the door gunner of the helo that picked him up for INFIL, that while the Iraqi on the ground’s pistol couldn’t reach them, the help’s door gun probably could….later, “I was just sayin’…”


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, one (interesting) man's opinion from RUS's Communist Party info-machine (links to pravda.ru) ....


> Dmitry Medvedev, who earlier served as Russia's Prime Minister and President, believes that discussing an opportunity to deploy Russian missiles and Cuba and Venezuela rises tensions even further ...


Text attached if you don't want to link.


----------



## Kirkhill

The backdrop against which all of this is playing out.  

Cultures.  Not States.









						Ah - More Ethnic Eurasia by Sharklord1 on DeviantArt
					






					www.deviantart.com


----------



## armrdsoul77

Exclusive: Russia moves blood supplies near Ukraine, adding to U.S. concern


----------



## Czech_pivo

armrdsoul77 said:


> Exclusive: Russia moves blood supplies near Ukraine, adding to U.S. concern


And that was what I was keeping an eye on.  If they do something like this, its serious.


----------



## Brad Sallows

Putin may not care about sanctions, but Putin's wealthy cronies probably do care.

Fareed Zakaria points out here that by taking part of Ukraine already, Putin essentially removed some of the people who felt strongly about favouring ties with Russia and made the remaining Ukraine mostly more pro-Ukraine.  The thing about ethnic Russians in Ukraine is not that they exist, but that they have effectively been diluted.


----------



## Brad Sallows

Russia isn't the only nation that can prepare for war.  If the Ukraine government hasn't been preparing to damage Russia's ability to trade with the rest of Europe, it hasn't been doing its job.  And the rest of Europe should wake up to this possibility and take firmer steps to deter war.


----------



## Lancaster

Brad Sallows said:


> Putin may not care about sanctions, but Putin's wealthy cronies probably do care.
> 
> Fareed Zakaria points out here that by taking part of Ukraine already, Putin essentially removed some of the people who felt strongly about favouring ties with Russia and made the remaining Ukraine mostly more pro-Ukraine.  The thing about ethnic Russians in Ukraine is not that they exist, but that they have effectively been diluted.


 
Defense Secretary says "conflict is not inevitable"
 in Ukraine.  See video .








						Defense Secretary says "conflict is not inevitable" in Ukraine
					

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley held a press conference Friday amid the Russian troop buildup near Ukraine. "Conflict is not inevitable. There is still time and space for diplomacy," Austin said. Watch the press conference.



					www.cbsnews.com
				




Please see very important  video in 1990s Russia
and the U.S. and Britain signed a memorandum
for Ukraine's sovereignty.


----------



## Brad Sallows

Words and memos don't mean sh!t without enforcement.


----------



## suffolkowner

Brad very true, if some Ukrainians weren't thinking of ways to hamstring Russian economic interests in Europe than they are not doing their job

With respect for Russians in Ukraine I'm not sure how many are left with Crimea and the conquered Donbas removed from the equation. Originally it was estimated at 8 million but some have also left the greater Donbas region due to the turmoil and there is a tendency by certain Russians to classify every Ukrainian Russian speaker as Russian when they are not


----------



## Good2Golf

Brad Sallows said:


> Russia isn't the only nation that can prepare for war.  If the Ukraine government hasn't been preparing to damage Russia's ability to trade with the rest of Europe, it hasn't been doing its job.  And the rest of Europe should wake up to this possibility and take firmer steps to deter war.


UKR pretty much tripled it’s Defence spending over the last 7/8 years.  They’re serious, no doubt about that.   There will be a few bloody noses shortly…I think SECDEF Austin is portraying the “there’s still some hope, but….” position.


----------



## suffolkowner

Reznikov: Number of our anti-tank weapons exceeds potential targets
					

Defense Minister of Ukraine Oleksii Reznikov has called the international military assistance to Ukraine very optimistic. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				




On the ground the Ukrainians should extract a heavy price from any Russian invasion. I'm not sure NATO is too upset with the situation, worst case scenario is that Russia gets saddled with an economic anchor and emboiled in some kind of insurgency


----------



## KevinB

suffolkowner said:


> Reznikov: Number of our anti-tank weapons exceeds potential targets
> 
> 
> Defense Minister of Ukraine Oleksii Reznikov has called the international military assistance to Ukraine very optimistic. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> On the ground the Ukrainians should extract a heavy price from any Russian invasion. I'm not sure NATO is too upset with the situation, worst case scenario is that Russia gets saddled with an economic anchor and emboiled in some kind of insurgency


My concern is the Russian will just heavily bombard areas with Artillery and Air, and only later move ground troops in.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> My concern is the Russian will just heavily bombard areas with Artillery and Air, and only later move ground troops in.


Or, like some analysts predict (guess?), heavily bombard w/arty & air, without having to push troops in, and keep bombing until they get more of what they want - sorta like holding UKR hostage while torturing it instead of pushing in with ground troops having to deal with pissed-off Ukrainian troops and insurgents.


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Or, like some analysts predict (guess?), heavily bombard w/arty & air, without having to push troops in, and keep bombing until they get more of what they want - sorta like holding UKR hostage while torturing it instead of pushing in with ground troops having to deal with pissed-off Ukrainian troops and insurgents.


They could do that now without a large build up - and as mentioned the Blood Drive has started which generally indicates heavy ground engagement is expected -- now they could be doing the blood drive for psychological reasons, to convince everyone they are going to go in, but Vlad has poured a lot of resources into the area - and I don't see him being okay with settling for area denial.

   Plus firing into Ukraine from Russia will invite counter fire - I suspect that the US might lend donate some Long Range Precision Fire tools and some of the stuff can make serious messes of Moscow from areas on the West side of the Ukraine.  Russia really can't complain if the Ukraine dropped some ordinance into Russia populated areas, if they are doing the same to the Ukraine.
  Also AA will be in issue for Russian AC, I am sure we are eager to find out how several of our newer systems work on Russian combat aircraft.


----------



## Kat Stevens

KevinB said:


> They could do that now without a large build up - and as mentioned the Blood Drive has started which generally indicates heavy ground engagement is expected -- now they could be doing the blood drive for psychological reasons, to convince everyone they are going to go in, but Vlad has poured a lot of resources into the area - and I don't see him being okay with settling for area denial.
> 
> Plus firing into Ukraine from Russia will invite counter fire - I suspect that the US might lend donate some Long Range Precision Fire tools and some of the stuff can make serious messes of Moscow from areas on the West side of the Ukraine.  Russia really can't complain if the Ukraine dropped some ordinance into Russia populated areas, if they are doing the same to the Ukraine.
> Also AA will be in issue for Russian AC, I am sure we are eager to find out how several of our newer systems work on Russian combat aircraft.


If I was Ukraine and had that capability, I'd kick shit out of Russia's petrochem facilities.


----------



## KevinB

Kat Stevens said:


> If I was Ukraine and had that capability, I'd kick shit out of Russia's petrochem facilities.


The first Russian across the border, and if I was the Ukraine, I'd have some folks lay Nord Stream all over the place.
   Anywhere they can be hurt, I would be looking to do it.


----------



## suffolkowner

KevinB said:


> The first Russian across the border, and if I was the Ukraine, I'd have some folks lay Nord Stream all over the place.
> Anywhere they can be hurt, I would be looking to do it.


Kevin I like the way you think!


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kat Stevens said:


> If I was Ukraine and had that capability, I'd kick shit out of Russia's petrochem facilities.


That means Rostov’s dock facilities


----------



## Czech_pivo

suffolkowner said:


> Kevin I like the way you think!


There is also the chance of Ukrainians inside of Russia causing pain and suffering.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Czech_pivo said:


> There is also the chance of Ukrainians inside of Russia causing pain and suffering.



And then there's Transnistria:


West reluctant to admit new Russian Cold War, and Putin's counting on it​
Today over 1,500 Russian troops and hundreds more so-called Russian “peacekeepers” occupy Transnistria, a region Russia conveniently calls a legitimate separatist region, which also happens to share a border with NATO ally Romania.









						West reluctant to admit new Russian Cold War, and Putin’s counting on it
					

The Russians have embraced full-on Cold War tactics, while the U.S. struggles to play catch up.




					thehill.com


----------



## KevinB

Plenty of things here to cause grief with...
      I'd call it a 2 for the Price of 1


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> View attachment 68299
> Plenty of things here to cause grief with...
> I'd call it a 2 for the Price of 1


Well there are 100’s of thousands of Ukkies in Poland….and that pipeline is pretty close to the Polish border.

On another note, this link is pretty interesting and lays things out that a simple naive thinking Canadian may in fact be able to understand.






						'In a very dangerous place': Why one expert says the Russia-Ukraine crisis won't be a traditional war
					

As tensions continue in the Russia-Ukraine standoff, and while global governments and intelligence services attempt to figure out what comes next, one expert says the current crisis won’t be a traditional war.




					beta.ctvnews.ca


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Well there are 100’s of thousands of Ukkies in Poland….and that pipeline is pretty close to the Polish border.


Honestly I would use the International Water area just after it leaves the Gulf of Finland - water depths in that area are IVO of 500'
  An ADS can easily work in that depth, even to the max depth of the Baltic Sea - and you could blow miles of it very easily.

Frankly it's a pretty easy and cheap operation.


Czech_pivo said:


> On another note, this link is pretty interesting and lays things out that a simple naive thinking Canadian may in fact be able to understand.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 'In a very dangerous place': Why one expert says the Russia-Ukraine crisis won't be a traditional war
> 
> 
> As tensions continue in the Russia-Ukraine standoff, and while global governments and intelligence services attempt to figure out what comes next, one expert says the current crisis won’t be a traditional war.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> beta.ctvnews.ca


Link didn't open for me.


----------



## Good2Golf

Hopefully Nord Stream 2 doesn’t get kinked and bent as it curves around Bornholm, DK… 🤔


----------



## Kat Stevens

Nice pipeline you have there, Vlad. Shame is something were to happen to it.


----------



## MilEME09

Kat Stevens said:


> Nice pipeline you have there, Vlad. Shame is something were to happen to it.


Or to all of them by coincidence  if i was a Ukrainian sleeper, I'd hit that new pipeline to China.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> There is also the chance of Ukrainians inside of Russia causing pain and suffering.


I suspect a lot of the Ukrainians in Russia may not be as passionate about fighting Ukraine's fight as those in the homeland would be.  

Also, it would not be beyond the realm of possibility for Putin & Co. to 1)  crank up the outrage machine in Russia about potential Ukrainian terrorists, and 2)  deal with them accordingly without worrying about another Amnesty International report.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

KevinB said:


> Plus firing into Ukraine from Russia will invite counter fire - I suspect that the US might lend donate some Long Range Precision Fire tools and some of the stuff can make serious messes of Moscow from areas on the West side of the Ukraine.  Russia really can't complain if the Ukraine dropped some ordinance into Russia populated areas, if they are doing the same to the Ukraine.


Similar to whats happening in Yemen, UAE and Saudi Arabia as we type.


----------



## Good2Golf

Russia will be careful to ensure that the Little Green Men and Wagner Group fire at Kyiv from the Donbas…no justification for UKR to fire into RUS as counter-battery.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> Russia will be careful to ensure that the Little Green Men and Wagner Group fire at Kyiv from the Donbas…no justification for UKR to fire into RUS as counter-battery.


... but enough justification (once UKR counter-battery fire begins) for Russia to "protect" all the newly-minted Russian passport holders in the occupied territories.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> They could do that now without a large build up - and as mentioned the Blood Drive has started which generally indicates heavy ground engagement is expected -- now they could be doing the blood drive for psychological reasons, to convince everyone they are going to go in, but Vlad has poured a lot of resources into the area - and I don't see him being okay with settling for area denial.
> 
> Plus firing into Ukraine from Russia will invite counter fire - I suspect that the US might lend donate some Long Range Precision Fire tools and some of the stuff can make serious messes of Moscow from areas on the West side of the Ukraine.  Russia really can't complain if the Ukraine dropped some ordinance into Russia populated areas, if they are doing the same to the Ukraine.
> Also AA will be in issue for Russian AC, I am sure we are eager to find out how several of our newer systems work on Russian combat aircraft.


You're doing that thinking like a military person versus politician thing again.


----------



## MilEME09

Pentagon chief says Putin now has full range of options in Ukraine
					

U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin says Putin could use any portion of his force of an estimated 100,000 troops to seize Ukrainian cities and ‘significant territories’




					www.theglobeandmail.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Honestly I would use the International Water area just after it leaves the Gulf of Finland - water depths in that area are IVO of 500'
> An ADS can easily work in that depth, even to the max depth of the Baltic Sea - and you could blow miles of it very easily.
> 
> Frankly it's a pretty easy and cheap operation.
> 
> Link didn't open for me.








						'In a very dangerous place': Why one expert says the Russia-Ukraine crisis won't be a traditional war
					

As tensions continue in the Russia-Ukraine standoff, and while global governments and intelligence services attempt to figure out what comes next, one expert says the current crisis won’t be a traditional war.




					beta.ctvnews.ca
				




Click on the first link, not the one on the bottom. If it doesn’t work it might be because your in the US.


----------



## Czech_pivo

One million refugees could come out of Ukraine to Poland.








						One million refugees could come to Poland if there is war in Ukraine
					

Poland could be hit by a wave of one million refugees if war breaks out in Ukraine, a deputy interior minister warned on Friday.




					www.thefirstnews.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

A pretty solid read. A good understanding of the issues.









						Putin's next move
					

A shock and awe campaign could overwhelm Ukraine




					unherd.com


----------



## Brad Sallows

All the pretexts people imagine are worthless.  At this point, virtually any possible pretext for war has been written and talked about so openly that anything Russia claims will be bullsh!t, and will be regarded as bullsh!t.  The only uncertainty is whether any foreign leaders are lickspittle enough to pretend the emperor is wearing clothes.


----------



## Altair

Brad Sallows said:


> All the pretexts people imagine are worthless.  At this point, virtually any possible pretext for war has been written and talked about so openly that anything Russia claims will be bullsh!t, and will be regarded as bullsh!t.  The only uncertainty is whether any foreign leaders are lickspittle enough to pretend the emperor is wearing clothes.


That's not an uncertainty.

We saw how the Crimea played out.


----------



## The Bread Guy

This, from the bought-and-paid-for _Toronto Star_ editorial board ....


> ... Canada’s action or lack of it won’t tip the scales in this crisis. Many other players have more important roles to play, and if saner heads prevail there’s every possibility of avoiding actual conflict.
> 
> But the gap between the government’s words and its actions will chip away again at Canada’s credibility on the world stage. We’ll pay a cost for that long after the crisis in Ukraine is history.


Also attached if link doesn't work.


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> This, from the bought-and-paid-for _Toronto Star_ editorial board ....
> 
> Also attached if link doesn't work.


We have credibility on the world stage? Huh learn something new every day


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> We have credibility on the world stage? Huh learn something new every day


Well, it doesn't exactly say _how much_, does it?


----------



## suffolkowner

Altair said:


> You're doing that thinking like a military person versus politician thing again.


One type of politician for sure but President Biden might want to reevaluate his foreign policy. Adding a failure in Ukraine to Afghanistan isn't going to help the Democrats midterm results at all. After the midterms Biden will be the most hamstrung US President we've seen in all likelihood giving Russia and China even carte blanche to do whatever they want


----------



## FJAG

We all know that the Ukraine isn't a NATO country and why we are all playing around the edges on this one, but has anyone heard anything from the UN lately on this issue? The last time that I looked, Section 4 of Article 2 of Chapter 1 stated:



> All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.



I know that Russia has succeeded the USSR as a permanent member of the SC but maybe the various former Soviet Republics should revisit their consent to that. It seems Russia has rethought the Russian-Ukrainian Friendship, Cooperation and partnership treaty it entered into in 1997 when the Ukraine handed over all of its nukes - and that's now lapsed after it was broken by Russia in 2014.

So no noise from the UN at all? All I see is a threat by Biden to bring it before the UN SC IF Russia invades. - As far as I see the "threat" part of Section 4 has been triggered.

🍻


----------



## The Bread Guy

FJAG said:


> We all know that the Ukraine isn't a NATO country and why we are all playing around the edges on this one, but has anyone heard anything from the UN lately on this issue? ... So no noise from the UN at all? All I see is a threat by Biden to bring it before the UN SC IF Russia invades ...


Coming to the Security Council Monday - the day before Russia takes over its turn (rotates monthly) as President/chair of the Security Council - with RUS state media calling it a _"shameful PR stunt_*".*

Not even listed in the UN info-machine's "In Focus" news page, though, as of this post ...


----------



## Blackadder1916

FJAG said:


> I know that Russia has succeeded the USSR as a permanent member of the SC but maybe the various former Soviet Republics should revisit their consent to that. It seems Russia has rethought the Russian-Ukrainian Friendship, Cooperation and partnership treaty it entered into in 1997 when the Ukraine handed over all of its nukes - and that's now lapsed after it was broken by Russia in 2014.
> 
> 
> 🍻



If one thinks past the obvious "has enough nuclear weapons to destroy half the world is criteria enough for a permanent seat" premise then the "legal" arguments for Russia being the successor state to the USSR's membership and SC seat are well discussed here.



			http://www.ejil.org/pdfs/3/2/2045.pdf


----------



## armrdsoul77

Cyberattack Targets Belarus' Rail Network To Slow Flood Of Russian Forces Into The Country


----------



## The Bread Guy

About those reports of RUS stocking blood/med supplies (via UKR media)


> The information spread on the Internet that Russia is sending medical materials and blood supplies to the border with Ukraine does not correspond to reality, said Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine Hanna Maliar.
> 
> "Now, the information is being spread on the Internet with reference to anonymous sources that Russia allegedly sent supplies of blood and other medical materials for the wounded to the Ukrainian border. This information is not true. Such 'news' is an element of information and psychological warfare," Maliar wrote on Facebook on Saturday.
> 
> "The purpose of such information is to spread panic and fear in our society," the deputy minister added ...


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> About those reports of RUS stocking blood/med supplies (via UKR media)


Some of the reports where Russian media…

I think the Ukrainians are doing a Baghdad Bob at this point trying to reassure their population so they don’t flee now.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Some of the reports where Russian media…
> 
> I think the Ukrainians are doing a Baghdad Bob at this point trying to reassure their population so they don’t flee now.


Oh, they've been clear about Western reports panicking people, for sure.

Meanwhile, Russian politician says "come on down!"


> A Russian MP is encouraging residents of the rebel-controlled Donbas area of Ukraine to join the Russian army.
> 
> This is seen as another sign that Moscow is continuing to try to integrate those territories as much as possible amid Western fears that Russia is planning to invade the country.
> 
> He also claimed that people in Donbas fear assaults by Ukrainian forces.
> 
> “If Russian citizens residing in the (territories) want to join the Russian Armed Forces, the Rostov regional military commissariat will register and draft them,” Vodolatsky, deputy chairman of parliament committee on relations with neighbours, told the state news agency Tass ...


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Oh, they've been clear about Western reports panicking people, for sure.
> 
> Meanwhile, Russian politician says "come on down!"


So recruiting for a foreign army in an occupied country.   Hmm not suspect at all…


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> So recruiting for a foreign army in an occupied country.   Hmm not suspect at all…


At the risk of sounding harsh, not the first time this has happened in this part of the world, right?


----------



## armrdsoul77




----------



## The Bread Guy

On the one hand ....


> President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Friday called on the West to avoid creating "panic" in the face of the Russian troop buildup on Ukraine's border.  "We don't need this panic," Zelensky told a news conference with foreign media ...


... while on the other (if completely true - _Washington Post_ link bypassing paywall)


> ... Ukrainian intelligence has moved sensitive files and equipment out of its headquarters in the capital to safe locations in the west of the country, according to officials familiar with the matter who, like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive operations ...


----------



## Dana381

KevinB said:


> So recruiting for a foreign army in an occupied country.   Hmm not suspect at all…



It will probably work too. Speaking to a Ukrainian expat at a customer's the other day. I asked what he thought of it all and he said it will be good as Russia has a good pension and reasonable costs. He claimed the utility prices are more than the monthly wages are impossible to afford. Most Ukrainians don't pay their utility bills because of this and the utilities may take their home some day to cover what's owed. He wants Russia to take over. There must be more like him there.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Dana381 said:


> It will probably work too ...


Did for her, sort of ....


----------



## MilEME09

Dana381 said:


> It will probably work too. Speaking to a Ukrainian expat at a customer's the other day. I asked what he thought of it all and he said it will be good as Russia has a good pension and reasonable costs. He claimed the utility prices are more than the monthly wages are impossible to afford. Most Ukrainians don't pay their utility bills because of this and the utilities may take their home some day to cover what's owed. He wants Russia to take over. There must be more like him there.


Sounds like corruption on the utility industry at its finest. It's why while we may be helping Ukraine, they need to help them selves if they want to get in the EU and NATO. If they could control the cost of living, etc....the population would be much more supportive


----------



## Dana381

He did say corruption is everywhere. No matter what you do you have to pay a bribe. If you want your kid to go to school, pay. If you want a driver's license, pay.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Dana381 said:


> He did say corruption is everywhere. No matter what you do you have to pay a bribe. If you want your kid to go to school, pay. If you want a driver's license, pay.



Sounds alot like Canada in many ways. Ironically


----------



## Brad Sallows

From 30,000 feet, fees are just institutionalized bribes.  Where agencies don't pay well enough, you get bribes.  Where agencies do pay well enough, they need funds to do so.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Nothing to see here ...


> Defence Minister Anita Anand says all Canadian troops stationed in Ukraine have been moved west of the country’s Dnieper River as worries about a possible Russian invasion continue to grow.
> 
> Though Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said last week that the 200-soldier Operation Unifier mission – which previously saw military trainers sent to nearly all regions of Ukraine – were now “focused all in western Ukraine where the risks are lowest,” Ms. Anand’s comments represented the most specific information about how Canada’s military posture has changed.
> 
> Ms. Anand, who is on a two-day visit to Kyiv, was speaking less than 48 hours after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized Western governments and media for overemphasizing the possibility of a Russian invasion. Mr. Zelensky said the war talk was creating “panic” that was damaging his country’s economy ...


Interesting carrot from the Kremlin info-machine, directing the RUS Council for the Development of Civil Society and Human Rights to (Google translation of attached screen grab of declaration from kremlin.ru) ...


> ... consider the issue of providing citizens of the Russian Federation residing in the territories of certain regions of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine with the possibility of submitting applications for social benefits and benefits using a single portal of state and municipal services without specifying registration at the place of residence in the territory of the Russian Federation and with the need to submit proposals for changing the procedure for providing relevant social payments and benefits ...


This version from UKR media


> Russian President Vladimir Putin has instructed the government to provide social benefits to residents of the occupied Donbas with Russian passports. This is stated in the list of instructions following the meeting of the Council for the Development of Civil Society and Human Rights, published on the Kremlin's website.
> 
> "Consider providing citizens of the Russian Federation living in certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine with the opportunity to apply for social benefits and privileges using a single portal of state and municipal services," the document reads.
> 
> At the same time, this category of persons will not be required to indicate registration at the place of residence on the territory of the Russian Federation. The government is also proposed to change the procedure for providing appropriate social benefits and privileges for residents of occupied Donbas with Russian passports ...


----------



## Altair

And now China is warning of war between the USA and China over Taiwan. 

2 things.

1) Clearly seeing what Russia is capable of getting away with and now trying their own hand at it.

2) So much for hating Russia and using a Russia Ukraine conflict to backstab Russia. They have their sights firmly set on Taiwan.


----------



## JMCanada

MilEME09 said:


> Sounds like corruption on the utility industry at its finest. It's why while we may be helping Ukraine, they need to help them selves if they want to get in the EU and NATO. If they could control the cost of living, etc....the population would be much more supportive



I found this today, it comes in the same direction.

And this article (dated Dec.) shows a way to avoid conflict, based on the Minsk II agreements. I have found it deeply descriptive and interesting (no matter its length).









						Ukraine: The Most Dangerous Problem in the World
					

But there’s already a solution.




					www.thenation.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Not much more than a bit of (almost) generic stuff & a "see ya again in March" from a statement following a meeting between CAN's and UKR's DefMins in UKR (original in Ukrainian from UKR MoD info-machine - Google translation in quote)


> *The Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov held talks with the Minister of National Defense of Canada Anita Anand*
> 
> 6 hours ago | ID: 66267
> 
> Today, January 31, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov held talks with the Minister of National Defense of Canada Anita Anand during her visit to Ukraine.
> 
> The Head of the National Defense Office expressed his personal gratitude to his colleague for the decision of the Government of Canada to provide assistance in support of Ukraine, as well as to continue the UNIFIER operation until 2025 and increase its staff.
> 
> During the meeting, the parties discussed the security situation in the temporarily occupied territories and around Ukraine's borders, Ukraine's cooperation with NATO and in a bilateral format.
> 
> Particular attention was paid to the aggravation of the security situation related to joint Russian-Belarusian military exercises near Ukraine's borders, further use of hybrid methods of warfare by Ukraine's military and political leadership against both Ukraine and NATO member states.
> 
> The parties stressed that Ukraine and Canada are strategic partners in the field of security and defense, who share a common vision to counter today's challenges and threats and are fully committed to peace and security in the Euro-Atlantic area, protection of common values and freedoms.
> 
> At the end of the meeting, Ms. Anita Anand stressed that Canada will continue to provide comprehensive support to Ukraine in the field of democracy development, reforms and capacity building of the Armed Forces, as well as the realization of Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic aspirations. Defense ministers agreed on the next meeting in Canada in March this year.


Meanwhile, RUS's envoy to Canada lays out what Russia wants in a _Toronto Star_ opinion piece: "The Russian community in Ukraine shall have the right to speak, be educated, and enjoy governmental and cultural services in their native tongue." (Ironic, given the USSR didn't allow that all that much in Ukraine).


----------



## Good2Golf

The Bread Guy said:


> Meanwhile, RUS's envoy to Canada lays out what Russia wants in a _Toronto Star_ opinion piece: "The Russian community in Ukraine shall have the right to speak, be educated, and enjoy governmental and cultural services in their native tongue." (Ironic, given the USSR didn't allow that all that much in Ukraine).


Invalid straw-man to create extreme arc for any negotiations…


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> ... Amy negotiations…


???  Or did your hardware "fix" the word "any"?


----------



## Good2Golf

The Bread Guy said:


> ???  Or did your hardware "fix" the word "any"?


It was a Russian Bot that did it!!!


----------



## The Bread Guy

We'll see ....


> ... (CAN DefMin) Anand, who was in Kyiv on a two-day visit to show Canada’s solidarity with Ukraine, said in an interview with The Globe and Mail that she had discussed “aid, writ large” in her meeting with Mr. Reznikov. While the Liberal government has thus far resisted sending lethal armaments to Kyiv, Ms. Anand said the issue was still under discussion.
> 
> She said she wouldn’t publicly discuss what type of weapons Ukraine had asked for, but Mr. Reznikov told The Globe in a recent interview that his country – which has a large and battle-hardened land army after eight years of fighting against Russian-backed forces in the Donbas region – was in dire need of anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems, as well as naval defences and electronic jamming equipment.
> 
> Ms. Anand said she had come to Kyiv to hear first-hand about the Ukrainian military’s requirements.
> 
> “I was here to gather information on that point, primarily, and specifics about what aid in particular would be most beneficial for Ukraine – and I committed … to take the conversation back to our Prime Minister and our cabinet to further discuss the aid that we’re providing to Ukraine,” Ms. Anand said. “We discussed all types of aid, and Canada stands continually ready to support Ukraine.” ... “All options are on the table,” she said ...


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> We'll see ....


_She said she wouldn’t publicly discuss what type of weapons Ukraine had asked for, but Mr. Reznikov told The Globe in a recent interview that his country – which has a large and battle-hardened land army after eight years of fighting against Russian-backed forces in the Donbas region – was in dire need of *anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems*, as well as naval defences and electronic jamming equipment._

Well they are asking the wrong house for toys of that type.  I mean there are things to ask Canada for, and things to ask not for, because the cupboard is bare.


----------



## suffolkowner

Some help from Poland with a focus on some air defence









						Poland handing over defense aid to Ukraine – Duda’s Office
					

Poland has decided to hand over to Ukraine a batch of security assistance. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## MilEME09

Any one else notice they asked for naval defense for the first time? They must be actually concerned about the black sea fleet, sounds like a potential NSS foreign customer.......


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> Any one else notice they asked for naval defense for the first time? They must be actually concerned about the black sea fleet, sounds like a potential NSS foreign customer.......


Maybe we slap the Bofors back on the Kingston's and donate them under a CIDA grant?


----------



## Blackadder1916

MilEME09 said:


> Any one else notice they asked for naval defense for the first time? They must be actually concerned about the black sea fleet, sounds like a potential NSS foreign customer.......



"Customer" suggests a buyer with cash to spend; not sure that readily applies to Ukraine.


----------



## The Bread Guy

suffolkowner said:


> Some help from Poland with a focus on some air defence
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Poland handing over defense aid to Ukraine – Duda’s Office
> 
> 
> Poland has decided to hand over to Ukraine a batch of security assistance. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net


More on Polish offers of help ...

_*“Poland to pass tens of thousands of defensive ammunition to Ukraine, – BNB head” (UKR media)*_
_*“Poland may hand over man-portable air defense systems, drones, ammunition to Ukraine — (POL) PM” (RUS state media)*_
_*“Poland to Supply Ukraine With Man-Portable Air-Defence Systems, Drones” (RUS state media)*_
_*“Poland offers Ukraine defensive ammunition” (Baltic News Network)*_
_*"Poland ready to receive wounded, evacuate people in worst-case scenario - Morawiecki" (UKR media)*_
_*"Polish company PGNiG buys gas from United States for Ukraine" (UKR media)*_
Meanwhile, if you're interested in last night's emergency debate in the House on Ukraine, transcript from Hansard (36 pg PDF) here.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Blackadder1916 said:


> "Customer" suggests a buyer with cash to spend; not sure that readily applies to Ukraine.


Potatoes, lots and lots of them.


----------



## Fishbone Jones




----------



## The Bread Guy

Spanish media sharing what they say is the U.S. and NATO response to Russia's offered-up security guarantee documents (RUS docs attached, alleged responses here in PDF - 12 pages - @ non-government page)


----------



## Good2Golf

So does NATO-RUS Article 6 prohibit non-NATO nations from themselves seeking membership (FIN/SWE)?  

And USA-RUS Article 5 means Russia will stop flying Tu-95 and Tu-160 flights in the NORAD ADIZ?  🤔

Since Putin has demonstrated an anti-law ideology, what’s the likelihood of him respecting any of those terms.  He didn’t respect the Budapest Memorandum and the was signed by him…


----------



## KevinB

Good2Golf said:


> So does NATO-RUS Article 6 prohibit non-NATO nations from themselves seeking membership (FIN/SWE)?  And USA-RUS Article 6 means Russia will stop flying Tu-95 and Tu-160 flights in the NORAD ADIZ?  🤔
> 
> Since Putin has demonstrated an anti-law ideology, what’s the likelihood of him respecting any of those terms.  He didn’t respect the Budapest Memorandum and the was signed by him…


Well it is moot since NATO rejected his suggestions.   As you mention, there isn't much expectation of him honoring SFA (not Status of Force Agreement  ) because he has a history of breaking agreements.



The Bread Guy said:


> Spanish media sharing what they say is the U.S. and NATO response to Russia's offered-up security guarantee documents (RUS docs attached, alleged responses here in PDF - 12 pages - @ non-government page)


Based on what was released to the public already, that seems to be a pretty likely original document that wasn't expected to be released (hence the Security classification) in whole.


----------



## FJAG

KevinB said:


> there isn't much expectation of him honoring SFA


I thought you meant the other "SFA".

Either way, I agree completely.


----------



## OldSolduer

Wasn't Vlady KGB in olde days of Soviet Union?

The KGB did not have a stellar reputation of respecting any laws. Ask Georgi Markov but you can't....


----------



## The Bread Guy

We'll see ....


> Defence Minister Anita Anand says the government believes in the importance of bolstering NATO's eastern flank in response to Russia's military buildup, and that discussions are underway around increasing Canada's military presence in eastern Europe.  Yet the minister, who was speaking on Wednesday from the Latvian capital of Riga - her last stop in a three-country tour that included visits to Ukraine and NATO headquarters in Brussels - declined to say when a Canadian decision could come ...


🍿


----------



## Spencer100

The Bread Guy said:


> We'll see ....
> 
> 🍿


Looks like Trudeau will need the army at home soon. 


Don't kill me....just making a bad joke


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> We'll see ....
> 
> 🍿


Still out looking for the Heavy Bde...


----------



## suffolkowner

Altair said:


> And now China is warning of war between the USA and China over Taiwan.
> 
> 2 things.
> 
> 1) Clearly seeing what Russia is capable of getting away with and now trying their own hand at it.
> 
> 2) So much for hating Russia and using a Russia Ukraine conflict to backstab Russia. They have their sights firmly set on Taiwan.


I don't think anyone was suggesting that Russia and China were going to war immediately just that in the medium term like 50/100/200 years they're going to be interesting bedfellows


----------



## Altair

suffolkowner said:


> I don't think anyone was suggesting that Russia and China were going to war immediately just that in the medium term like 50/100/200 years they're going to be interesting bedfellows


I don't disagree with that, but saying it has any bearing on Russia commiting to war against Ukraine is...questionable. 

This was directed to those saying they are wondering why Russia isn't concerned about China in their east when they are redeploying forces from their east to the west.


----------



## Spencer100

Altair said:


> I don't disagree with that, but saying it has any bearing on Russia commiting to war against Ukraine is...questionable.
> 
> This was directed to those saying they are wondering why Russia isn't concerned about China in their east when they are redeploying forces from their east to the west.


Because short term they both want something?  Ukraine and Taiwan?  It makes sense Enemy of my enemy?


----------



## Altair

Spencer100 said:


> Because short term they both want something?  Ukraine and Taiwan?  It makes sense Enemy of my enemy?


Yes, I agree. 

There are a few who don't agree with that though.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Yes, I agree.
> 
> There are a few who don't agree with that though.


Both of them will also toss the other to the West at a moment's notice if they think it will benefit them in the long run.


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> We'll see ....
> 
> 🍿


It will be like the peacekeeping QRF unit we promised, or the CAST brigade......won't happen I bet. CAF is already stretched thin because of attrition.


----------



## Quirky

MilEME09 said:


> It will be like the peacekeeping QRF unit we promised, or the CAST brigade......won't happen I bet. CAF is already stretched thin because of attrition.


Time to whip out our CF-18s to justify that capability gap purchase of Aussie hornets.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Both of them will also toss the other to the West at a moment's notice if they think it will benefit them in the long run.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> It will be like the peacekeeping QRF unit we promised, or the CAST brigade......won't happen I bet. CAF is already stretched thin because of attrition.


According to the Cdn Gov's own audit of the CAF, it is at 99.5%+ of its 121k authorized manning levels for 2021.

  I mean the Gov would never lie, or get anything wrong, right?


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> According to the Cdn Gov's own audit of the CAF, it is at 99.5%+ of its 121k authorized manning levels for 2021.
> 
> I mean the Gov would never lie, or get anything wrong, right?


considering we have already said we are short over 10k in the army, yeap thats BS


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> considering we have already said we are short over 10k in the army, yeap thats BS







__





						Information archivée dans le Web | Information Archived on the Web
					






					publications.gc.ca
				



2.1 Canadian Armed Forces are ready to conduct concurrent operations 79% according to the PDF.
   I was wrong it isn't 121k it was 101,500 personnel, and apparently only filled to 100,809.8 (not sure how .8 of a body works out -- we shall call him headless Bob.
 So 79,639.742 (Headless Bob also lost an arm) 

2.2 Military equipment is ready for training and operations whoops only 72% there for the CA...
   But the target for the CA was only 70%, while the RCN target was 90% and the RCAF was 85% (the RCAF didn't pass).

3.1 Canadian Armed Forces is growing towards its end state of 101,500 personnel*
  Reg force is 99.23% - and Res to 77.09%

Unfortunately only 90.51% of those personnel are fit for their Military Occupation 
  Which then wonders WHY only 79% are ready to conduct operations...


Anyway I got off on a tangent --the long and short of it is there is no reason why the CA cannot deploy a Bde somewhere.
   As long as they bring the working equipment


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> Anyway I got off on a tangent --the long and short of it is there is no reason why the CA cannot deploy a Bde somewhere.
> As long as they bring the working equipment


probably cause while they may dag green, many aren't qualified


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> probably cause while they may dag green, many aren't qualified


Qualified folks in trade in the Army where quite high a percentage -- at least Reg Force -- the SSE document hadn't identified what was wanted from the Reserves - so other than low manning there was no other data.

 Quite frankly if the CAF wanted to deploy TWO Bde they could (just not for any sustained period - unless they didn't rotate the units home)
   - the second Bde wouldn't have a lot of kit -- but there would be bodies in CADPAT some even with a rifle/carbine


----------



## FJAG

Worthwhile read:



> Russia Will Not Stop at Ukraine
> 
> 
> The current confrontation is not only about Ukraine; it is also about Moscow’s attempt to stifle Georgia’s sovereign choices.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> rusi.org



🍻


----------



## FJAG

KevinB said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Information archivée dans le Web | Information Archived on the Web
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> publications.gc.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 2.1 Canadian Armed Forces are ready to conduct concurrent operations 79% according to the PDF.
> I was wrong it isn't 121k it was 101,500 personnel, and apparently only filled to 100,809.8 (not sure how .8 of a body works out -- we shall call him headless Bob.
> So 79,639.742 (Headless Bob also lost an arm)
> 
> 2.2 Military equipment is ready for training and operations whoops only 72% there for the CA...
> But the target for the CA was only 70%, while the RCN target was 90% and the RCAF was 85% (the RCAF didn't pass).
> 
> 3.1 Canadian Armed Forces is growing towards its end state of 101,500 personnel*
> Reg force is 99.23% - and Res to 77.09%
> 
> Unfortunately only 90.51% of those personnel are fit for their Military Occupation
> Which then wonders WHY only 79% are ready to conduct operations...
> 
> 
> Anyway I got off on a tangent --the long and short of it is there is no reason why the CA cannot deploy a Bde somewhere.
> As long as they bring the working equipment


I remember looking at no end of performance metrics and dashboards while I spent three years in purgatory Ottawa. 

They are uniformly laugh out loud, roll on the floor laughing ridiculous pieces of crap. I guess that's what you do when you don't have profit and loss statements to help you measure success.

🍻


----------



## SupersonicMax

FJAG said:


> I remember looking at no end of performance metrics and dashboards while I spent three years in purgatory Ottawa.
> 
> They are uniformly laugh out loud, roll on the floor laughing ridiculous pieces of crap. I guess that's what you do when you don't have profit and loss statements to help you measure success.
> 
> 🍻


To be fair, it’s hard to measure our performance when we don’t have concrete goals….


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Qualified folks in trade in the Army where quite high a percentage -- at least Reg Force -- the SSE document hadn't identified what was wanted from the Reserves - so other than low manning there was no other data.
> 
> Quite frankly if the CAF wanted to deploy TWO Bde they could (just not for any sustained period - unless they didn't rotate the units home)
> - the second Bde wouldn't have a lot of kit -- but there would be bodies in CADPAT some even with a rifle/carbine


So we shouldn’t sell the Enfields?


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> Qualified folks in trade in the Army where quite high a percentage -- at least Reg Force -- the SSE document hadn't identified what was wanted from the Reserves - so other than low manning there was no other data.
> 
> Quite frankly if the CAF wanted to deploy TWO Bde they could (just not for any sustained period - unless they didn't rotate the units home)
> - the second Bde wouldn't have a lot of kit -- but there would be bodies in CADPAT some even with a rifle/carbine


This brings up a a valid question though, do we potentially need to look at our tour lengths to off set our challenges of being a smaller force? why 6 months and not 9? I am not advocating crazy times like 18 months tours our american cousins do but with the length of time we put into workup training etc.... do we maybe need to make tours longer?


----------



## FJAG

SupersonicMax said:


> To be fair, it’s hard to measure our performance when we don’t have concrete goals….


That's very true - unfortunately it doesn't stop agencies from making up pseudo metrics which make it look like they are achieving something.

Just as an example here's the JAG's Performance Monitoring Framework which in its introduction even makes this statement "A manageable and sustainable PMF should limit itself to relatively few simple and unequivocal KPIs."

Now take a look at their matrix:



> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Annex F : Military Justice System Performance Monitoring Framework - Canada.ca
> 
> 
> Link to Annex F : Military Justice System Performance Monitoring Framework
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.canada.ca



🍻


----------



## Dana381

Czech_pivo said:


> So we shouldn’t sell the Enfields?


Didn't they give the enfields away. I understand that the rangers were allowed to keep their service rifle if they had a civilian PAL when the replacements arrived.


----------



## Czech_pivo

What's your take?  Are the war drums beating a bit less or still at the same tempo?


----------



## daftandbarmy

FJAG said:


> That's very true - unfortunately it doesn't stop agencies from making up pseudo metrics which make it look like they are achieving something.
> 
> Just as an example here's the JAG's Performance Monitoring Framework which in its introduction even makes this statement "A manageable and sustainable PMF should limit itself to relatively few simple and unequivocal KPIs."
> 
> Now take a look at their matrix:
> 
> 🍻



The majority of my clients measure very little regarding performance on a formal basis relying mainly on personal relationships, interactions etc. 

This, of course, usually results in massive failures from time to time, of various natures, which is why they call us - and those like us - to help out.

There's got to be some kind of a balance as measuring nothing, and doing nothing about poor performance, is usually a recipe for failure of the greatest magnitude a la 'Ostrich Leadership'.

<cough> CAF Defence Ethics <cough>


----------



## MilEME09

daftandbarmy said:


> The majority of my clients measure very little regarding performance on a formal basis relying mainly on personal relationships, interactions etc.
> 
> This, of course, usually results in massive failures from time to time, of various natures, which is why they call us - and those like us - to help out.
> 
> There's got to be some kind of a balance as measuring nothing, and doing nothing about poor performance, is usually a recipe for failure of the greatest magnitude a la 'Ostrich Leadership'.
> 
> <cough> CAF Defence Ethics <cough>


What is the CAF in the 20's for 500


----------



## OldSolduer

MilEME09 said:


> What is the CAF in the 20's for 500


In the 1920s or 2020s? Or both....??


----------



## MilEME09

OldSolduer said:


> In the 1920s or 2020s? Or both....??


Wwll both are inter-war periods


----------



## KevinB

OldSolduer said:


> In the 1920s or 2020s? Or both....??


I blame the 1920's - the major rise of sports in the CAF.   If Hockey hadn't risen to be so important for so long, a lot of actual things may have been done.


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> I blame the 1920's - the major rise of sports in the CAF.   If Hockey hadn't risen to be so important for so long, a lot of actual things may have been done.


Funny that they just removed fitness as a scorable category on PERs.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Funny that they just removed fitness as a scorable category on PERs.


How does one then get judged for being fit for trade?


----------



## MJP

KevinB said:


> How does one then get judged for being fit for trade?


They pass the FORCE test or in some cases the trade specific fitness test.  Failing those have administrative actions so there is no need for it to be on an evaluation is the logic.  In the case of FORCE test that everyone has to do every year, on top of the admin measures if you are not current then your file doesn't go to the promotion board (there are exceptions to this) for your evaluation to be considered


----------



## SupersonicMax

MJP said:


> They pass the FORCE test or in some cases the trade specific fitness test.  Failing those have administrative actions so there is no need for it to be on an evaluation is the logic.  In the case of FORCE test that everyone has to do every year, on top of the admin measures if you are not current then your file doesn't go to the promotion board (there are exceptions to this) for your evaluation to be considered


I thought expired FORCE tests went to the boards but the test had to be valid before member is promoted?


----------



## Baloo

This thread is a microcosm of the CAF.

PERs taking precedence over operational discussions.


----------



## MJP

SupersonicMax said:


> I thought expired FORCE tests went to the boards but the test had to be valid before member is promoted?


That could be the case I couldn't remember which way it went , cuz I was at home and couldn't look at the source references.


Either way at the end of the day there is no need for it to be on any evaluation because there were other mechanisms that deal with poor fitness


----------



## KevinB

Baloo said:


> This thread is a microcosm of the CAF.
> 
> PERs taking precedence over operational discussions.


Dude we are building a headquarters here...


In other news - my daily AUSA Email told me 2k troops from the 82nd ABN are heading to Poland and Germany - and 1k Stryker troops from 2ACR already in Germany are being repositioned to Romania, and 8,500 more troops in XVIII Corps (assumably 82nd ABN) have been elevated to heightened alert status.








						AUSA Extra - February 3
					





					extra.ausa.org


----------



## kev994

SupersonicMax said:


> I thought expired FORCE tests went to the boards but the test had to be valid before member is promoted?


Yeah, the last promotion message I saw (November-ish) had a big note on it with stars all around it saying the unit was to ensure their force test was up to date prior to presenting the promotion, and here’s the date we have on file for the most recent test.


----------



## MilEME09

Back on topic,









						Social media posts call on Russians to join separatist forces
					

As the Ukraine crisis shows no sign of easing, Russians are being asked to support rebels in two separatist statelets.




					www.aljazeera.com
				












						Turkey, a Sometimes Wavering NATO Ally, Backs Ukraine
					

In a public rebuke of Russia, Turkey will expand supplies of one of the Ukrainian Army’s most sophisticated weapons, a long-range, Turkish-made armed drone.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, this from a Pentagon spokesperson today:


> ... we've discussed this idea of false flags by the Russians before. We've made no secret of that, and we do have information that it is -- that -- that -- that the Russians are likely to want to fabricate a pretext for an invasion, which again, is right out of their playbook.
> 
> One option is the Russian government; we -- we think is planning to stage a fake attack by Ukrainian military or intelligence forces against Russian sovereign territory or against Russian-speaking people the -- to therefore justify their action.
> 
> As part of this fake attack, we believe that Russia would produce a very graphic propaganda video, which would include corpses and actors that would be depicting mourners and images of destroyed locations, as -- as well as military equipment, at the hands of Ukraine or the West, even to the point where some -- some of this equipment would be -- to make -- made to look like it was Western-supplied, Ukrainian -- you know, to Ukraine equipment.
> 
> So this is just -- and this is just one example that we can talk about today. We're -- we're watching this across the board. We've -- we've seen these kinds of activities by the Russians in the past and we believe it's important, when we see it like this and -- and we can, to call it out ...


----------



## RangerRay

Question for someone more familiar with Poland and Eastern Europe…

Is the Polish Law and Justice Party sympathetic with Russia like Viktor Orban in Hungary is?  Or are they more distrustful as one would suspect the Poles being?


----------



## Czech_pivo

RangerRay said:


> Question for someone more familiar with Poland and Eastern Europe…
> 
> Is the Polish Law and Justice Party sympathetic with Russia like Viktor Orban in Hungary is?  Or are they more distrustful as one would suspect the Poles being?


It’s a Catholic centric party, so right off the bat they are no friends of the Russians.
It’s was primarily founded by 2 brothers, the Kaczynski’s twins, Lech and Jaroslav. Lech, who was President first, was killed in Russia back around 2010 in a plane crash where the Chief of the Polish Armed Forces and many, many Sr. govt officials, over 90 people, were killed as well. He was trying to fly into a memorial to the Katyn Massacre where the Russians (Soviets), murdered over 20,000 Polish military officers, professionals and religious officials. 
They are no friends of the Russians.


----------



## Fabius

> KevinB said:
> 
> 
> 
> In other news - my daily AUSA Email told me 2k troops from the 82nd ABN are heading to Poland and Germany - and 1k Stryker troops from 2ACR already in Germany are being repositioned to Romania, and 8,500 more troops in XVIII Corps (assumably 82nd ABN) have been elevated to heightened alert status.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> AUSA Extra - February 3
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> extra.ausa.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I wonder if the 82nd is starting to spinning as much as we are …
Click to expand...


----------



## daftandbarmy




----------



## Journeyman

Some thoughts on Canada's military and Ukraine.  Forwarded to me by a former PPCLI guy, currently teaching in the US.









						Tommy Conway: When soldiers show a dangerous contempt for reality
					

Even if we wanted to be useful in Ukraine, we don't have the capacity.




					theline.substack.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

This from the bought-and-paid-for Globe ....


> ... The Globe has also learned there is a Liberal government cabinet split about the feasibility of supplying small arms to Ukraine’s army, with some members expressing concerns about exacerbating tensions with Moscow.
> 
> The cabinet dispute over small arms is centred on the fact that Germany and other European countries have not supplied lethal weapons, although one senior Canadian source said the matter remains under active consideration ...


Reminds me of the "Yes, Minister" quote ...


----------



## daftandbarmy

Journeyman said:


> Some thoughts on Canada's military and Ukraine.  Forwarded to me by a former PPCLI guy, currently teaching in the US.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Tommy Conway: When soldiers show a dangerous contempt for reality
> 
> 
> Even if we wanted to be useful in Ukraine, we don't have the capacity.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> theline.substack.com



But we have a surplus of smugness


----------



## Journeyman

The Bread Guy said:


> there is a Liberal government cabinet split about the feasibility of supplying small arms to Ukraine’s army


Only this asshole government would think that providing our NATO-caliber small arms to a Soviet-caliber military would be a good idea. Shame LOGISTICS has so many syllables.


----------



## Altair

Journeyman said:


> Only this asshole government would think that providing our NATO-caliber small arms to a Soviet-caliber military would be a good idea. Shame LOGISTICS has so many syllables.





Lol.


----------



## KevinB

Turkey and Ukraine to coproduce TB2 drones
					

Ukrainian Defence Minister Olesii Reznikov told reporters in Kyiv that the coproduction compound would also include a training center where Ukrainian pilots would be trained.




					www.defensenews.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Canada:  here you go, then!


> Last night, as part of Canada’s recently announced immediate support to Ukraine and the extension and expansion of Operation UNIFIER, the Canadian Armed Forces’ (CAF) training and capacity-building mission in Ukraine, a CAF C-177 Globemaster departed CFB Trenton carrying non-lethal military equipment.
> 
> Canada is steadfast in its support of Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence. This equipment donation will further help the Ukrainian security forces defend against Russia’s threats and military buildup in and around Ukraine.
> 
> This equipment includes personal protective and load carriage equipment, as well as surveillance and detection equipment. A team of CAF personnel are accompanying the equipment to assist with its integration, and to ensure Ukrainian security forces are properly trained on its function and maintenance.
> 
> These CAF personnel will then remain in Ukraine to provide additional mentoring to the Ukrainian security forces. Exact locations and dates of the arrival of the additional CAF members committed as part of Canada’s extension and expansion of Operation UNIFIER will not be disclosed for operational security reasons ...


----------



## Good2Golf

The Bread Guy said:


> Canada:  here you go, then!


Well that won’t bother the Russians at all.  Way to dance the line, Canada. 

🙄


----------



## suffolkowner

I don't understand the reluctance to part with the equipment originally intended for the Kurds. I would be curious to know how the cabinet split breaks down on this


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> I don't understand the reluctance to part with the equipment originally intended for the Kurds. I would be curious to know how the cabinet split breaks down on this


Those that don't want to poke the bear with business interests vs those that dont


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

The Bread Guy said:


> Canada:  here you go, then!


Hahaha!

Thanks for the 82 Pattern Rucksacks Canada!

I bet this is some Supply Techs real clever way of conducting disposal.

Here is a live feed of our team of experts showing the Ukrainians how to integrate this equipment:


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Hahaha!
> 
> Thanks for the 82 Pattern Rucksacks Canada!
> 
> I bet this is some Supply Techs real clever way of conducting disposal.
> 
> Here is a live feed of our team of experts showing the Ukrainians how to integrate this equipment:


On that flight is all the arctic stoves that were just declared surplus and sent back go depot for "disposal"


----------



## MilEME09

Ukraine Approves Framework Agreement with the UK - Naval News
					

The Ukrainian Parliament on January 27 adopted the law on ratification of the Framework Agreement between Ukraine and the UK on financial support for the country's naval forces capacity building. This paves the way to the procurement of Babcock-built P-50U Fast Inshore Attack Craft (FIAC) by...




					www.navalnews.com
				




Ukraine signs framework agreement for two minesweeper and 8 fast attack craft from the UK


----------



## Halifax Tar

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Hahaha!
> 
> Thanks for the 82 Pattern Rucksacks Canada!
> 
> I bet this is some Supply Techs real clever way of conducting disposal.
> 
> Here is a live feed of our team of experts showing the Ukrainians how to integrate this equipment:



We do work out magic in very mysterious ways lol


----------



## daftandbarmy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Hahaha!
> 
> Thanks for the 82 Pattern Rucksacks Canada!
> 
> I bet this is some Supply Techs real clever way of conducting disposal.
> 
> Here is a live feed of our team of experts showing the Ukrainians how to integrate this equipment:



I hope we didn't send the left over stocks of Boots, Cold Wet Weather, Skating or we'll hardly be able to claim we sent them 'non-lethal' aid


----------



## The Bread Guy

Interesting ....


> To placate Russia, Israel told Baltics states it would block weapon transfers to Ukraine: Sources
> As Russian forces began massing along the Ukrainian border, the Israeli MoD sent word to the three Baltic nations that if they ask to transfer weapons to Ukraine, they will be denied, sources say ...​


----------



## MilEME09

Russian forces at 70% of level needed for full Ukraine invasion, U.S. officials say
					

Russia has in place about 70% of the combat power it believes it would need for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and is sending more battalion tactical groups to the border with its neighbor, two U.S. officials said on Saturday.




					www.reuters.com
				




The build up continues, only a couple weeks ago, intelligence suggested they had 50% of the forces they needed. At this pace they could have the forces they need in place in about two to three weeks.


----------



## Brad Sallows

>To placate Russia​Reminds me of a plea to "eat us last".


----------



## daftandbarmy

Brad Sallows said:


> >To placate Russia​Reminds me of a plea to "eat us last".


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> Russian forces at 70% of level needed for full Ukraine invasion, U.S. officials say
> 
> 
> Russia has in place about 70% of the combat power it believes it would need for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and is sending more battalion tactical groups to the border with its neighbor, two U.S. officials said on Saturday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The build up continues, only a couple weeks ago, intelligence suggested they had 50% of the forces they needed. At this pace they could have the forces they need in place in about two to three weeks.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Honestly I didn't even know the Olympics had started


----------



## Journeyman

Halifax Tar said:


> Honestly I didn't even know the Olympics had started


 

Don't care. Six Nations rugby is on, and none of the host nations take hostages for political purposes. Fuck China.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Journeyman said:


> View attachment 68533
> 
> Don't care. Six Nations rugby is on, and none of the host nations take hostages for political purposes. Fuck China.



Great matches yesterday


----------



## MilEME09

I was just thinking because Russia jas joint exercises in Belarus, what if Russia doesn't need 100% of the required forces? What if Belarus is providing say 20% of the manpower? How many Belarusian troops are on the border? We haven't been hearing those numbers.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> I was just thinking because Russia jas joint exercises in Belarus, what if Russia doesn't need 100% of the required forces? What if Belarus is providing say 20% of the manpower? How many Belarusian troops are on the border? We haven't been hearing those numbers.


Funny you should mention that ...


> Satellite images by a private U.S. company published on Sunday showed details of military maneuvres at the Belarus border with Ukraine ahead of joint drills announced by Moscow and Minsk that NATO has called the biggest deployment to Belarus since the Cold War.
> 
> Russia and Belarus have said they will hold joint exercises called Union Resolve 2022 on Feb. 10-20 aimed at training to repel an attack on southern borders of their alliance, and Russia has given some details of missiles and warplanes it is sending for the event.
> 
> 
> The new deployment and planned exercises are taking place at a time when tensions are high between Russia and the West over Russia's massing of troops near its border with Ukraine. Western countries have accused Russia of preparing to invade Ukraine while Moscow denies it has such plans.
> 
> The images from U.S.-based Maxar Technologies showed that military units armed with missiles, multiple rocket launchers and attack aircrafts had deployed to Belarus at three locations close to the border with Ukraine ...


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1490105106066513922
Its twitter, so take it for what it's worth, but dear gods.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1490105106066513922
> Its twitter, so take it for what it's worth, but dear gods.


More on that (including a range of estimated numbers) from the NY Times, attached.


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> More on that (including a range of estimated numbers) from the NY Times, attached.



Link to the article 



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/05/ukraine-russia-nato-putin-germany/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EBB%2002.07.2022


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

KevinB said:


> Link to the article
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/05/ukraine-russia-nato-putin-germany/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EBB%2002.07.2022


Only 5 million refugees?  Psssshhhhh amateur numbers!

That's proportionally on par with the number of anti-vaxxers we have in Canada, NBD 🤣


----------



## Czech_pivo

So the Germans look to be increasing their troop count in Lithuania.

With what's going on in Ottawa I doubt that we'll be adding our understrength battalion in Latvia. 

Germany prepares to beef up Lithuania force to show solidarity in Ukraine crisis​








						Germany prepares to beef up Lithuania force to show solidarity in Ukraine crisis
					

Olaf Scholz will fly to Washington as part of diplomatic effort to convince Nato he can be relied upon




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Only 5 million refugees?  Psssshhhhh amateur numbers!
> 
> That's proportionally on par with the number of anti-vaxxers we have in Canada, NBD 🤣


I do not think people are correctly understanding what those number of refugees can potentially do to both the EU and NATO.

The EU has had bitter, very bitter disagreements with how to deal with the massive numbers of refugees that have flocked to the EU states over the last 5-6yrs since the civil war in Syria and the massive problems in Iraq/Afghanistan and parts of Africa. The Germans alone have taken in over *1.3 million* just themselves during the last 5yrs (and we here in Canada clap ourselves on our backs for taking in 40,000 Syrians...). Now imagine if the Germans have to take in another 1.5-2.5 million more and other states in the EU have to take in the vast majority of the rest, what will happen to the existing civil support networks in these countries?  We here in Canada will proudly stand up and say, we'll take 75-100k and the US will offer a similar number, but who cares when there are still another 4.8m to be fed, housed, clothed, protected, integrated.

To me, this threat is just as big and just as serious, and it can certainly tear apart NATO and the EU. Putin wins twice, once by getting what he wants in the Ukraine and again for all the divisiveness that it will cause in the EU and NATO.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> I do not think people are correctly understanding what those number of refugees can potentially do to both the EU and NATO.





Czech_pivo said:


> To me, this threat is just as big and just as serious, and it can certainly tear apart NATO and the EU. Putin wins twice, once by getting what he wants in the Ukraine and again for all the divisiveness that it will cause in the EU and NATO.


Agreed, it will be an economic and humanitarian disaster.   I am actually not sure if NATO and the EU will survive at the end of the tunnel - and definitely not in the way they are today.

People argue that we should not spend blood and treasure in the Ukraine, but in the long run, standing up to Putin in the Ukraine, even if it means US and other NATO troops die is the best option for the Free World.
  Because not only will the potential 5 million Ukrainian refugees strain the alliance's - it will also allow the next country to be done that much easier by Putin.


----------



## CBH99

Czech_pivo said:


> I do not think people are correctly understanding what those number of refugees can potentially do to both the EU and NATO.
> 
> The EU has had bitter, very bitter disagreements with how to deal with the massive numbers of refugees that have flocked to the EU states over the last 5-6yrs since the civil war in Syria and the massive problems in Iraq/Afghanistan and parts of Africa. The Germans alone have taken in over *1.3 million* just themselves during the last 5yrs (and we here in Canada clap ourselves on our backs for taking in 40,000 Syrians...). Now imagine if the Germans have to take in another 1.5-2.5 million more and other states in the EU have to take in the vast majority of the rest, what will happen to the existing civil support networks in these countries?  We here in Canada will proudly stand up and say, we'll take 75-100k and the US will offer a similar number, but who cares when there are still another 4.8m to be fed, housed, clothed, protected, integrated.
> 
> To me, this threat is just as big and just as serious, and it can certainly tear apart NATO and the EU. Putin wins twice, once by getting what he wants in the Ukraine and again for all the divisiveness that it will cause in the EU and NATO.


What I’m about to say is going to sound cold, heartless, and arrogant.  I certainly don’t mean it as such - if I had a magic solution to this problem, I’d genuinely be vigorously pursuing it.  But I don’t.

The population of the planet can’t all immigrate to the west because of the problems of Africa, the Middle East, or even Eastern Europe as this case may be…


Causing proxy wars or instability may have perhaps worked in the past for the west, in terms of securing natural resources and overthrowing/replacing governments we didn’t like.  

But the population of the world was much, much smaller…the regional fallout was much less widespread.  


We can’t pretend like we can continue to accommodate everybody that wants to flee west.  The huge social and financial hardships faced by these countries cannot be overstated, not to mention the decline in quality of life that inevitably comes with overpopulation, increased unemployment, homelessness, etc.  

I know we (the west) bear plenty of responsibility for various current situations, but coldly we must find a solution to keep masses of undocumented people from moving across borders en-mass.  As a global society, it makes no sense for these mass migrations to be happening outside of a natural disaster.  

We don’t have the jobs, food, money, social networks, etc to support a mass influx of which the likes of Germany faces.  (As an example)


What does that solution look like?  I humbly leave my ears open…


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Link to the article
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/05/ukraine-russia-nato-putin-germany/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EBB%2002.07.2022


And here if the previous link doesn't work.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Interesting co-op between these two countries









						Untapped Potential: Turkey And Ukraine Join Forces To Develop Antonov Aircraft
					






					www.oryxspioenkop.com


----------



## Altair

Colin Parkinson said:


> Interesting co-op between these two countries
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Untapped Potential: Turkey And Ukraine Join Forces To Develop Antonov Aircraft
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.oryxspioenkop.com


Unless this bears fruit within the next 3 or so weeks, I don't think it will amount to much.


----------



## MilEME09

Anyone seen movement  from Russian NBC Decon units into Belarus? I ask because in order to encircle Kiev you have to go around the Chernobyl exclusion zone, but what if to save time they went through it.......


----------



## suffolkowner

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1490105106066513922
> Its twitter, so take it for what it's worth, but dear gods.


If I was Putin and someone told me it was only going to cost me 5000 to take even Eastern Ukraine I'd go for that


KevinB said:


> Agreed, it will be an economic and humanitarian disaster.   I am actually not sure if NATO and the EU will survive at the end of the tunnel - and definitely not in the way they are today.
> 
> People argue that we should not spend blood and treasure in the Ukraine, but in the long run, standing up to Putin in the Ukraine, even if it means US and other NATO troops die is the best option for the Free World.
> Because not only will the potential 5 million Ukrainian refugees strain the alliance's - it will also allow the next country to be done that much easier by Putin.


Maybe something Germany should have thought about a little harder then with regards to its stance on helping arm Ukraine


----------



## Kilted

MilEME09 said:


> Anyone seen movement  from Russian NBC Decon units into Belarus? I ask because in order to encircle Kiev you have to go around the Chernobyl exclusion zone, but what if to save time they went through it.......


I mean would the Ukrainians maybe be careful about what they shot at them in that zone?


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Unless this bears fruit within the next 3 or so weeks, I don't think it will amount to much.


3 Weeks, I think your being optimistic -- when are the closing ceremonies?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Question asked, and answered, via RUS state media (usual caveats about RUS servers - text of articles also attached) ...

*“Ukraine requests US to deploy THAAD missile defense systems — diplomatic source”* (RUS state media)
*“THAAD near Kharkov would be step towards destabilization — Kremlin spokesman”* (RUS state media)
I haven't seen any OS references to UKR seeking THAAD elsewhere, so grain of salt may be needed.


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Question asked, and answered, via RUS state media (usual caveats about RUS servers - text of articles also attached) ...
> 
> *“Ukraine requests US to deploy THAAD missile defense systems — diplomatic source”* (RUS state media)
> *“THAAD near Kharkov would be step towards destabilization — Kremlin spokesman”* (RUS state media)
> I haven't seen any OS references to UKR seeking THAAD elsewhere, so grain of salt may be needed.


I would have assumed it was already in place 
   Better question for the Russians why would an AIR DEFENSE System be destabilization - it really only has DEFENSIVE roles...


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> I would have assumed it was already in place
> Better question for the Russians why would an AIR DEFENSE System be destabilization - it really only has DEFENSIVE roles...


Also pretty sure someone would be fired for putting a THAAD in eastern Ukraine when it can cover that whole area safely from  Poland or Romania.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Also pretty sure someone would be fired for putting a THAAD in eastern Ukraine when it can cover that whole area safely from  Poland or Romania.


You put it on the very Western Edge - with Ukrainian troops and US advisors -- we learned that scam from the Russians...
   It's extremely rude to fire missiles from a country that isn't party to the conflict - and it makes then party to the conflict if it continues -- if it's in the Ukraine - you can simply point to the fact it would a Ukrainian Defensive measure...


----------



## blacktriangle

MilEME09 said:


> Also pretty sure someone would be fired for putting a THAAD in eastern Ukraine when it can cover that whole area safely from  Poland or Romania.


I'd also be concerned about potential capture of elements of a THAAD Bty, resulting in dissemination of technical int to adversaries around the world. Always ways to deal with that scenario, though.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> I would have assumed it was already in place
> Better question for the Russians why would an AIR DEFENSE System be destabilization - it really only has DEFENSIVE roles...


In the older days, the Soviets used to say Ballistic Missile Defence was just as destabilizing, and USSR 2.0 got the US to crank back some of its BMD in 2014 over similar criticism.

Anything that cancels out one of your handier tools must be destabilizing, I guess ...


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> In the older days, the Soviets used to say Ballistic Missile Defence was just as destabilizing, and USSR 2.0 got the US to crank back some of its BMD in 2014 over similar criticism.
> 
> Anything that cancels out one of your handier tools must be destabilizing, I guess ...


Well if BMD was successful to the point of eliminating Moscow’s second strike capability, that would be huge and we may be getting closer with laser tech.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest from Canada to folks in UKR:  GTFO or prepare to shelter in place ...


> Ottawa is telling Canadians to immediately leave Ukraine in the anticipation of a Russian invasion.
> 
> A warning was issued Monday to Canadians who are registered with the department of Global Affairs, telling them to get out of the country on the first available flight and to avoid travel to Ukraine, a senior government official confirmed. The Globe and Mail is not identifying the source because they were not authorized to publicly discuss the matter.
> 
> The Global Affairs’ e-mail advisory, obtained by The Globe, warned that consular services could become severely limited and that Canadians should leave “while commercial means are available.”
> 
> (...)
> 
> Canadians who don’t leave Ukraine should be “prepared to shelter in place,” the advisory said, warning of disruptions in electricity, water, telecommunications, medical care and food supply ...


----------



## Czech_pivo

CBH99 said:


> What I’m about to say is going to sound cold, heartless, and arrogant.  I certainly don’t mean it as such - if I had a magic solution to this problem, I’d genuinely be vigorously pursuing it.  But I don’t.
> 
> The population of the planet can’t all immigrate to the west because of the problems of Africa, the Middle East, or even Eastern Europe as this case may be…
> 
> 
> Causing proxy wars or instability may have perhaps worked in the past for the west, in terms of securing natural resources and overthrowing/replacing governments we didn’t like.
> 
> But the population of the world was much, much smaller…the regional fallout was much less widespread.
> 
> 
> We can’t pretend like we can continue to accommodate everybody that wants to flee west.  The huge social and financial hardships faced by these countries cannot be overstated, not to mention the decline in quality of life that inevitably comes with overpopulation, increased unemployment, homelessness, etc.
> 
> I know we (the west) bear plenty of responsibility for various current situations, but coldly we must find a solution to keep masses of undocumented people from moving across borders en-mass.  As a global society, it makes no sense for these mass migrations to be happening outside of a natural disaster.
> 
> We don’t have the jobs, food, money, social networks, etc to support a mass influx of which the likes of Germany faces.  (As an example)
> 
> 
> What does that solution look like?  I humbly leave my ears open…


Not addressing your concerns/comments, but this highlights Poland's stance on helping Ukrainians refugees and their current actual abilities.

Poland braces for ‘up to a million people’ fleeing war in Ukraine​ Poland braces for ‘up to a million people’ fleeing war in Ukraine

Personally, that number is way to low if Putin decides to take all of Ukraine or even the east bank of the Dnieper.


----------



## Czech_pivo

*Russian ships passing the Straits in Turkey today/tomorrow.*

The Russian defence ministry said the exercises the six ships will take part in are a planned movement of military resources, according to the Interfax news agency.

The vessels are scheduled to pass through Turkey's straits to the Black Sea on Tuesday and Wednesday, Turkish sources said.

They include the Korolev, the Minsk and the Kaliningrad, which are expected to navigate the Bosphorus on Tuesday, while the Pyotr Morgunov, the Georgy Pobedonosets and the Olenegorsky Gornyak are expected to go by on Wednesday.



HMCS Montreal, I assume, should be somewhere just around Malta in the Med, still a number of days away from passing the Straits in Turkey. If something starts up in the Black Sea shortly she will most likely be late for the party.


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Ukrainians seem to think Feb 10th onwards might be D-Day.

Ukraine's army plans drills with drones, anti-tank missiles from Feb 10​








						Ukraine's army plans drills with drones, anti-tank missiles from Feb 10
					

Ukraine's army will conduct military drills from Feb. 10 to Feb. 20 in response to Russian exercises in Belarus near the Ukrainian northern border, Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said late on Monday.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

Czech_pivo said:


> The Ukrainians seem to think Feb 10th onwards might be D-Day.
> 
> Ukraine's army plans drills with drones, anti-tank missiles from Feb 10​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine's army plans drills with drones, anti-tank missiles from Feb 10
> 
> 
> Ukraine's army will conduct military drills from Feb. 10 to Feb. 20 in response to Russian exercises in Belarus near the Ukrainian northern border, Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said late on Monday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com



After Feb 20th is probably more likely:


What to Know About the 2022 Winter Olympics Closing Ceremony​








						What to Know About the 2022 Winter Olympics Closing Ceremony
					

From the date to what happens during the event, here is everything you need to know about the Closing Ceremony of the Winter Olympics.




					www.nbcchicago.com


----------



## KevinB

daftandbarmy said:


> After Feb 20th is probably more likely:
> 
> 
> What to Know About the 2022 Winter Olympics Closing Ceremony​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What to Know About the 2022 Winter Olympics Closing Ceremony
> 
> 
> From the date to what happens during the event, here is everything you need to know about the Closing Ceremony of the Winter Olympics.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nbcchicago.com


21-22 Feb, lets the athletes get home from China, so they aren't stuck and tweeting about the Russian invasion...


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> 21-22 Feb, lets the athletes get home from China, so they aren't stuck and tweeting about the Russian invasion...


Kharkiv weather out by that date in the +2 to +6c for daytime highs.  It will be wet and mushy during the days, possible rain and lots of cloud cover.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> ... lets the athletes get home from China, so they aren't stuck and tweeting about the Russian invasion...


... or get arrested for spying ...


----------



## suffolkowner

Czech_pivo said:


> Kharkiv weather out by that date in the +2 to +6c for daytime highs.  It will be wet and mushy during the days, possible rain and lots of cloud cover.


A nice warm wet and early spring!


----------



## The Bread Guy

Niiiice ...

_*“Ukrainian bakery in Toronto vandalized with pro-Russian graffiti” (Global News)*_
_*“Etobicoke bakery vandalized with anti- Ukrainian graffiti” (CTV News)*_


----------



## Good2Golf

The Bread Guy said:


> ... or get arrested for spying ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, some U.S. Republican legislators want to block aid to UKR until _"the border wall system on the southern border is completed, and operational control of the southern border is achieved"_ ...


> Today, Representative Rosendale introduced the _Secure America’s Borders First Act._ This bill would prohibit the U.S. government from providing military and security assistance to Ukraine until the border wall system on the southern border is completed, and operational control of the southern border is achieved.
> 
> The United States has no legal or moral obligation to come to Ukraine’s aid, and it is not in our national interest to spill American blood and treasure in Eastern Europe.
> 
> As with portions of the border wall system built under the Trump Administration, the bill states that the border wall system must include a 30-foot high internally hardened steel-bollard physical barrier, all-weather access and patrol roads, perimeter lighting, enforcement cameras, sensors, and anti-tunnel detection technology.
> 
> _“It is far past time that American foreign policy actually serves our national interests and puts the American people first,” _*said Representative Rosendale.* _“In Joe Biden’s first year in office, we have seen an invasion of over 2 million illegal aliens at our southern border. While our nation has miserably failed to secure our own border and protect our own territorial integrity, we are now being told by ‘America Last’ politicians on both sides of the aisle, that it is our obligation to do so for Ukraine. Before warmongers rush America into another foreign conflict over the border of an Eastern European nation thousands of miles from our shores, at the very least they should ensure our southern border is secure first.”_
> 
> The bill is cosponsored by Representatives Andy Biggs (AZ-05), Bob Good (VA-05), Matt Gaetz (FL-01), Paul Gosar (AZ-04), Jody Hice (GA-10), Mary Miller (IL-15), Ralph Norman (SC-05), Bill Posey (FL-08), and Randy Weber (TX-14) ...


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Niiiice ...
> 
> _*“Ukrainian bakery in Toronto vandalized with pro-Russian graffiti” (Global News)*_
> _*“Etobicoke bakery vandalized with anti- Ukrainian graffiti” (CTV News)*_


I love going to Future Bakery. Used to walk over to their location in St Lawrence Market over lunch and bring back cookies, poppyseed cake and angel wings for the floor.


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> Meanwhile, some U.S. Republican legislators want to block aid to UKR until _"the border wall system on the southern border is completed, and operational control of the southern border is achieved"_ ...


Guess they forgot about the Budapest memorandum


----------



## TacticalTea

CBH99 said:


> What I’m about to say is going to sound cold, heartless, and arrogant.  I certainly don’t mean it as such - if I had a magic solution to this problem, I’d genuinely be vigorously pursuing it.  But I don’t.
> 
> The population of the planet can’t all immigrate to the west because of the problems of Africa, the Middle East, or even Eastern Europe as this case may be…
> 
> 
> Causing proxy wars or instability may have perhaps worked in the past for the west, in terms of securing natural resources and overthrowing/replacing governments we didn’t like.
> 
> But the population of the world was much, much smaller…the regional fallout was much less widespread.
> 
> 
> We can’t pretend like we can continue to accommodate everybody that wants to flee west.  The huge social and financial hardships faced by these countries cannot be overstated, not to mention the decline in quality of life that inevitably comes with overpopulation, increased unemployment, homelessness, etc.
> 
> I know we (the west) bear plenty of responsibility for various current situations, but coldly we must find a solution to keep masses of undocumented people from moving across borders en-mass.  As a global society, it makes no sense for these mass migrations to be happening outside of a natural disaster.
> 
> We don’t have the jobs, food, money, social networks, etc to support a mass influx of which the likes of Germany faces.  (As an example)
> 
> 
> What does that solution look like?  I humbly leave my ears open…


What makes me uncomfortable is knowing that often times, those emigrating from developing countries are those with education and the financial means to do so, thus leading to a brain drain and financial flight.


----------



## Czech_pivo

TacticalTea said:


> What makes me uncomfortable is knowing that often times, those emigrating from developing countries are those with education and the financial means to do so, thus leading to a brain drain and financial flight.


You just described immigration to Canada.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Russian state media *REALLY* seems to be worried about THAAD headed to Ukraine ....

_*“Speculations over THAAD deployment near Kharkov are anti-Russian provocation — diplomat” (RUS state media)*_
_*“Moscow on Potential Delivery of US THAAD Systems to Ukraine: Russia Urges to Avoid ‘Stupidity’ ” (RUS state media)*_
_*“Russia cautions US to refrain from unwise steps with potential THAAD deliveries to Ukraine” (RUS state media)*_


----------



## Czech_pivo

HMCS Montreal cleared GIB yesterday. A number of days away from crossing the 2 Straits and entering into the Black Sea.  Just over 3 weeks from when she left HAL on the 19th.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Czech_pivo said:


> HMCS Montreal cleared GIB yesterday. A number of days away from crossing the 2 Straits and entering into the Black Sea.  Just over 3 weeks from when she left HAL on the 19th.



I trust you are not meaning to be nefarious and I know its in the public sphere but it continues to erk me that our warship movements are just broadcast online.


----------



## MilEME09

Halifax Tar said:


> I trust you are not meaning to be nefarious and I know its in the public sphere but it continues to erk me that our warship movements are just broadcast online.


OS resources make it easy to track anything these days. I once was at a Seminar by CFINTCOMs OSINT group, the amount of data they pull just from public sources is scary. I even signed up on the DWAN for some of their daily reports, the days of troop movements being hidden is long gone.


----------



## Halifax Tar

MilEME09 said:


> OS resources make it easy to track anything these days. I once was at a Seminar by CFINTCOMs OSINT group, the amount of data they pull just from public sources is scary. I even signed up on the DWAN for some of their daily reports, the days of troop movements being hidden is long gone.



I am well aware.  That doesn't mean it doesn't erk me.  I'm a Chief, I can be erked at anything I want ;-)


----------



## Czech_pivo

Halifax Tar said:


> I trust you are not meaning to be nefarious and I know its in the public sphere but it continues to erk me that our warship movements are just broadcast online.


Its posted all over Twitter.  
Not trying to be 'nefarious' but when our own Navy posts tweets of themselves being replenished by Asterix off the coast of Spain/Gib.....


----------



## daftandbarmy

Czech_pivo said:


> Its posted all over Twitter.
> Not trying to be 'nefarious' but when our own Navy posts tweets of themselves being replenished by Asterix off the coast of Spain/Gib.....



And then there's stuff like this:

Newly leaked video shows F-35 crashing in flames on aircraft carrier​https://www.cnn.com/profiles/brad-lendon








						Newly leaked video shows F-35 crashing in flames on aircraft carrier | CNN
					

A video posted on social media over the weekend shows the stealth fighter that crashed on a US Navy aircraft carrier last month bursting into flames as it strikes the flight deck of the massive warship.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Remius

Surplus CORCAN cubicle walls.


Czech_pivo said:


> Its posted all over Twitter.
> Not trying to be 'nefarious' but when our own Navy posts tweets of themselves being replenished by Asterix off the coast of Spain/Gib.....


I’m sure it’s in some Russian daily INT report in the “oh yeah and these guys” part of it.


----------



## Booter

In my poor, uneducated opinion, when a man made incident makes millions of refugees perhaps it’s a thing worth throwing might against,

Todays common bad faith actors shrug at us calling them bad guys and continue to go against our half measures. Economic or force projection.

We either get down and push back or we re just pushing a larger conflict down the line. Like forest fires. A couple small and mediums or a catastrophic rip roaring blaze.


----------



## KevinB

Interesting take on the situation -- note the 20 Feb date for the Russians to have troops leaving Belarus (to where?)









						Putin Is Operating on His Own Timetable, and It May Be a Long One
					

The standoff between Russia and the West over Ukraine could turn into a drawn-out and dangerous diplomatic slog toward a difficult settlement.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## MilEME09

Ukrainians are using bitcoin to crowdfund Russian war, says blockchain analyst
					

Ukrainian paramilitary groups have been fighting Russian-sponsored forces in the eastern part of country at varying levels of intensity since Russia launched...




					www.marketwatch.com
				




Interesting angle on the flow of money to Para military groups


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Ukrainians are using bitcoin to crowdfund Russian war, says blockchain analyst
> 
> 
> Ukrainian paramilitary groups have been fighting Russian-sponsored forces in the eastern part of country at varying levels of intensity since Russia launched...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.marketwatch.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Interesting angle on the flow of money to Para military groups


Up to the point that it totally about 571k since the start.
   I've seen more the that in cash loaded onto a Blackhawk to pay folks off for a week...


----------



## Weinie

KevinB said:


> Up to the point that it totally about 571k since the start.
> I've seen more the that in cash loaded onto a Blackhawk to pay folks off for a week...
> *you can get 200k in a normal sized Hockey bag provided they are $100 bills are wrapped in 50k blocks.


You can get $400K, in 100's to fit easily in a briefcase. (I ran a pay parade on the Mattawa in the early nineties)


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Up to the point that it totally about 571k since the start.
> I've seen more the that in cash loaded onto a Blackhawk to pay folks off for a week...
> *you can get 200k in a normal sized Hockey bag provided they are $100 bills are wrapped in 50k blocks.


And that is one of the reasons why 1,000$ bills are no longer in circulation in Canada.....20 bundles of 50 1,000$ bills and you've got a cool 1m. An average size backpack.


----------



## Weinie

Weinie said:


> You can get $400K, in 100's to fit easily in a briefcase. (I ran a pay parade on the Mattawa in the early nineties)


I forgot to mention: CANEX, the Messes, downtown Pet stores, and the Barbershops were all pissed at me.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> And that is one of the reasons why 1,000$ bills are no longer in circulation in Canada.....20 bundles of 50 1,000$ bills and you've got a cool 1m. An average size backpack.


Pretty sure - same reason down here -- I tried to get some from the Bank - and imagine my frowny face when I was told they have been removed from circulation.


Weinie said:


> You can get $400K, in 100's to fit easily in a briefcase. (I ran a pay parade on the Mattawa in the early nineties)


I'm curious if Cdn $ are thinner than American.  


NVM - I looked up from old picks -- was more than 50k / wrap


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Pretty sure - same reason down here -- I tried to get some from the Bank - and imagine my frowny face when I was told they have been removed from circulation.
> 
> I'm curious if Cdn $ are thinner than American.
> 
> 
> NVM - I looked up from old picks -- was more than 50k / wrap


The old paper currency was pretty much the same thickness (like .0045 vs .0043 inches) but the new polymer bill are a nuisance to try and fold in half.


----------



## KevinB

That was $50k - the wraps where 500k.
   Now I now I should have walked off with one of the bags


----------



## Blackadder1916

Weinie said:


> You can get $400K, in 100's to fit easily in a briefcase. (I ran a pay parade on the Mattawa in the early nineties)



Some examples using props Prop Money Stacks & Piles - Dimensions & Measurements


*$1 Million Dollar Stack*
100 x $10,000, or 10 x 10 stacks measures 12" across x 13" front to back x approx. 5" tall.


*A Standard Size Brief Case*
is 18" x 13" x 6" deep, and will hold 40 money stacks.


*20" Expandable Duffel Bag* 
with a false bottom to raise the inner floor by 5", will hold about 50 money stacks.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> View attachment 68607
> That was $50k - the wraps where 500k.
> Now I now I should have walked off with one of the bags


I like the BB and the CDN passport.  The bill shown came from the Atlanta Federal Reserve bank in 2003.

Currently there is no reported tracking or location of the above bill.


----------



## Good2Golf

Here’s what $1.4B looks like in the back of a Chinook…


----------



## KevinB

Good2Golf said:


> Here’s what $1.4B looks like in the back of a Chinook…
> View attachment 68608


Cocaine doesn't count


----------



## The Bread Guy

Someone warn these guys to stay away from tea or unattended doorknobs (usual caveats about linking to RUS servers)....

_*“Retired Russian Generals Criticize Putin Over Ukraine, Renew Call for His Resignation” (justsecurity.org)*_
“Address of the All-Russian Officers’ Meeting to the President and citizens of the Russian Federation – January 31, 2022” (All-Russian Officers’ Assembly, in Russian) ***
Google translation ***
Archived links:  Original in Russian - Google translation
Text (Russian & Google translation) attached
* Links were working a few minutes ago, and now don't seem to be working for the moment - lucky there's a PDF around 

OP edit to add links to archived versions of the statement in case the original links still don't work


----------



## daftandbarmy

Czech_pivo said:


> The old paper currency was pretty much the same thickness (like .0045 vs .0043 inches) but the new polymer bill are a nuisance to try and fold in half.



It still rolls up pretty tight though, doesn't it?


----------



## Spencer100

Well you it's trouble when the yacht gets moved!



			Putin's superyacht abruptly left Germany amid sanction warnings over Russia-Ukraine tensions, report says


----------



## KevinB

Spencer100 said:


> Well you it's trouble when the yacht gets moved!
> 
> 
> 
> Putin's superyacht abruptly left Germany amid sanction warnings over Russia-Ukraine tensions, report says


They probably caught the KSK planting limpet mines...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest on whazzup in the Black Sea ...

_*“Russia Readies for ‘Naval Blockade’ of Ukraine Ahead of Missile Drills – Reports” (RUS independent media)*_
_*“Military drills Russia’s Black Sea maneuvers comply with international law, Kremlin assures” (RUS state media)*_
_*” OSINT Tracker: Russia’s Principle Anti-Ship Capabilities in Mediterranean & Black Sea, Feb 09 2022″ (hisutton.com, OSINT site)*_
_*“Ukraine’s MFA protests over Russia’s decision to block part of Black, Azov Seas, Kerch Strait waters” (UKR media)*_
_*“We expect a strong response from the partners: when the Russian Federation’s vessels will be not able to entry easily civilized ports, they will see the price for their impudence” (UKR MoD info-machine)*_
_*“Russia blocks shipping in Black and Azov Seas: Ukrainian Foreign Ministry protests” (UKR media)*_
_*“Preparations for the “sea blockade” of Ukrainian ports ” (blackseanews.net, in Russian) – Google translation – Archived version (Russian) – Archived version (Google English)*_
_*“The Presence of Russian Warships in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea in January 2022” (blackseanews.net)*_


----------



## MilEME09

With Russian Drills, navigation in the black sea is impossible near Ukraine, essentially paralyzing Ukrainian shipping. Hope Ukraine has good anti ship capabilities otherwise the black sea fleet will have a field day.


----------



## FJAG

Spencer100 said:


> Well you it's trouble when the yacht gets moved!
> 
> 
> 
> Putin's superyacht abruptly left Germany amid sanction warnings over Russia-Ukraine tensions, report says


Make's you wonder how a former KGB civil servant he can afford a $100 million yacht.


----------



## Czech_pivo

FJAG said:


> Make's you wonder how a former KGB civil servant he can afford a $100 million yacht.


It helps when you know where the bodies are buried.....since you're the one who put them there in the first place.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

FJAG said:


> Make's you wonder how a former KGB civil servant he can afford a $100 million yacht.


Rumour is Vlad is one of, if not, the richest man in the World.


----------



## KevinB

FJAG said:


> Make's you wonder how a former KGB civil servant he can afford a $100 million yacht.


Does it really though 
   He really didn't like the crackdown on corruption in the Ukraine, or the fact it spurred Belarus protesting...


----------



## The Bread Guy

USA State Dep't ....


> Travel Advisory
> February 10, 2022​
> Ukraine - Level 4: Do Not Travel​*Do not travel to Ukraine due to the increased threats of Russian military action and COVID-19*; *those in Ukraine should depart now via commercial or private means*. If remaining in Ukraine, exercise increased caution due to crime, civil unrest, and potential combat operations should Russia take military action. Some areas have increased risk ...


... while Biden says he won't be sending troops into harm's way if Russia orders "Driver - advance!" 


> President Joe Biden on Thursday urged Americans that are still in Ukraine to immediately depart the country as it faces the looming threat of a possible Russian invasion.
> 
> In a sit-down interview with NBC News anchor Lester Holt, the president issued a weighty warning, saying the United States would not send troops to rescue remaining American citizens in Ukraine if Russia attacks.
> 
> "It's not like we're dealing with a terrorist organization. We're dealing with one of the largest armies in the world," Biden said. "It's a very different situation and things could go crazy quickly."
> 
> The president told NBC there is no scenario in which he would send US troops in to rescue fleeing Americans if Russia launches a military offensive against Ukraine, noting the risk of US and Russian military personnel being pulled into conflict ...


Nothing like telegraphing your potential moves.


----------



## Altair

The Bread Guy said:


> USA State Dep't ....
> 
> ... while Biden says he won't be sending troops into harm's way if Russia orders "Driver - advance!"
> 
> Nothing like telegraphing your potential moves.


well, the only good news here is the slip of the tongue of the president going to war over taiwan might be considered telegraphing of moves. 

But yeah, Ukraine is on its own and its likely going to suffer a humiliating defeat not too long from now.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Putin, is definitely sending a msg, just like the time when he first met Merkel at his Dacha outside Moscow. Merkel is deathly afraid of dogs and when her and Putin were sitting down and talking for a while, in walks Putin’s dog into the room. The dog walks directly over to Merkel, ignoring Putin, and sits down directly in front of Merkel and just sits there staring at her, not moving at all. After a few minutes, Putin walks over and takes the dog by the collar and removes it from the room.

Putin sat far from Macron after French leader refused Russian COVID-19 test: sources​


			https://i-cbc-ca.cdn.ampproject.org/ii/w820/s/i.cbc.ca/1.6347390.1644535639!/fileImage/httpImage/image.JPG_gen/derivatives/16x9_620/vladimir-putin-and-emmanuel-macron-sitting-far-apart-at-a-very-large-table-in-moscow.JPG
		










						Putin sat far from Macron after French leader refused Russian COVID-19 test: sources
					

French President Emmanuel Macron refused a Kremlin request that he take a Russian COVID-19 test when he arrived to see President Vladimir Putin this week, and was therefore kept at a distance from the Russian leader, two sources in Macron's entourage told Reuters. Observers were struck by images...




					news.google.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> Putin, is definitely sending a msg, just like the time when he first met Merkel at his Dacha outside Moscow. Merkel is deathly afraid of dogs and when her and Putin were sitting down and talking for a while, in walks Putin’s dog into the room. The dog walks directly over to Merkel, ignoring Putin, and sits down directly in front of Merkel and just sits there staring at her, not moving at all. After a few minutes, Putin walks over and takes the dog by the collar and removes it from the room.
> 
> Putin sat far from Macron after French leader refused Russian COVID-19 test: sources​
> 
> 
> https://i-cbc-ca.cdn.ampproject.org/ii/w820/s/i.cbc.ca/1.6347390.1644535639!/fileImage/httpImage/image.JPG_gen/derivatives/16x9_620/vladimir-putin-and-emmanuel-macron-sitting-far-apart-at-a-very-large-table-in-moscow.JPG
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Putin sat far from Macron after French leader refused Russian COVID-19 test: sources
> 
> 
> French President Emmanuel Macron refused a Kremlin request that he take a Russian COVID-19 test when he arrived to see President Vladimir Putin this week, and was therefore kept at a distance from the Russian leader, two sources in Macron's entourage told Reuters. Observers were struck by images...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.google.com


Then again, he also did the long-distance thing with Hungary's PM, who may see Putin as a bit of a kindred spirit, too ...


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> Then again, he also did the long-distance thing with Hungary's PM, who may see Putin as a bit of a kindred spirit, too ...
> View attachment 68625


Probably for the camera, can't pat the PM on the back too much after blocking Ukraine from NATOs cyber security center


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> Probably for the camera, can't pat the PM on the back too much after blocking Ukraine from NATOs cyber security center


Yeah, there's a bit of ongoing tension between Kyiv & Budapest over Hungarian language rights in a bit of Ukraine bordering Hungary.


----------



## Good2Golf

The Bread Guy said:


> Then again, he also did the long-distance thing with Hungary's PM, who may see Putin as a bit of a kindred spirit, too ...
> View attachment 68625


…picture taken before the rest of the guest were brought in…then…


----------



## lenaitch

MilEME09 said:


> Probably for the camera, can't pat the PM on the back too much after blocking Ukraine from NATOs cyber security center


This, apparently:



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-france-putin-macron-meeting-covid19-test-1.6347370


----------



## daftandbarmy

*It looks like the role of the artillery is safe *​​Ukrainian Drone Drops Molotov Cocktails On Russian Proxy Trenches​An interesting video out of the Donbass region shows a Ukrainian drone dropping improvised incendiary munitions, with great accuracy, into Russian-proxy trenches and bunkers.

The construction of the various petrol bombs differs in each clip. One is housed in a modified water bottle, but the chemical composition and catalyst to create fire isn't known by us.

While the use of recreational type drones modified to drop explosives has become a common tactic in conflict areas across the world, the delivery of fire bombs is relatively rare in recorded video. While high explosive munitions may have a more immediate and deadly effect, the incendiary munitions are able to permeate into bunker areas built to defeat point-detonating explosives.

The burning fuel can be useful in damaging and destroying communications equipment and other sensitive material and even has the potential to cook off an ammunition storage bunker with precise delivery. The smoke from the resulting targets also makes an aiming point of reference for Ukrainian artillery and mortars. At the very least, the use of these improvised, drone-delivered molotov cocktails compound the psychological offensive against the Russian-backed militants, as they now have another threat to worry about.



Ukrainian Drone Drops Molotov Cocktails On Russian Proxy Trenches


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Ukraine tensions: Joe Biden says US citizens should leave Ukraine now

Meanwhile, while we are preoccupied with events on the homefront, seems some, including POTUS, think the tanks could begin rolling at any moment.

Also POTUS has already stated no cavalry will be coming to the rescue ala Kabul.


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Ukraine tensions: Joe Biden says US citizens should leave Ukraine now
> 
> Meanwhile, while we are preoccupied with events on the homefront, seems some, including POTUS, think the tanks could begin rolling at any moment.
> 
> Also POTUS has already stated no cavalry will be coming to the rescue ala Kabul.


I love the whole "it's not our fault", like really? Who outside of Russia believes that?


----------



## Czech_pivo

daftandbarmy said:


> *It looks like the role of the artillery is safe *​​Ukrainian Drone Drops Molotov Cocktails On Russian Proxy Trenches​An interesting video out of the Donbass region shows a Ukrainian drone dropping improvised incendiary munitions, with great accuracy, into Russian-proxy trenches and bunkers.
> 
> The construction of the various petrol bombs differs in each clip. One is housed in a modified water bottle, but the chemical composition and catalyst to create fire isn't known by us.
> 
> While the use of recreational type drones modified to drop explosives has become a common tactic in conflict areas across the world, the delivery of fire bombs is relatively rare in recorded video. While high explosive munitions may have a more immediate and deadly effect, the incendiary munitions are able to permeate into bunker areas built to defeat point-detonating explosives.
> 
> The burning fuel can be useful in damaging and destroying communications equipment and other sensitive material and even has the potential to cook off an ammunition storage bunker with precise delivery. The smoke from the resulting targets also makes an aiming point of reference for Ukrainian artillery and mortars. At the very least, the use of these improvised, drone-delivered molotov cocktails compound the psychological offensive against the Russian-backed militants, as they now have another threat to worry about.
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian Drone Drops Molotov Cocktails On Russian Proxy Trenches


Whatever it takes to make Putin pay as dearly as possible if he tries to invade.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Czech_pivo said:


> Whatever it takes to make Putin pay as dearly as possible if he tries to invade.


My worry is the response when Russia crosses the LOD will be this:






Things like Drones and Precision Guided attacks look really good if you want to keep casualties to a minimum.  If you don't give a shir about the Geneva or Hague Conventions and are totally cool with levelling grid squares, well that's going to be a problem. 

I'm also concerned about Chernobyl which almost nobody seems to be talking about.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Czech_pivo said:


> Whatever it takes to make Putin pay as dearly as possible if he tries to invade.





Humphrey Bogart said:


> My worry is the response when Russia crosses the LOD will be this:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Things like Drones and Precision Guided attacks look really good if you want to keep casualties to a minimum.  If you don't give a shir about the Geneva or Hague Conventions and are totally cool with levelling grid squares, well that's going to be a problem.
> 
> I'm also concerned about Chernobyl which almost nobody seems to be talking about.


In terms of Chernobyl - if  the Ukrainians really, true believe that they may go completely under, they could easily drop a few fuel rods from there into some Russian drinking sources......


----------



## Spencer100

CNN is all pumped up.  









						New intel suggests Russia is prepared to launch an attack before the Olympics end, sources say
					

Tensions between Moscow and Kyiv are at their highest in years, with a large Russian troop buildup near the shared borders of the two former Soviet republics. Follow for live news updates.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Altair

Spencer100 said:


> CNN is all pumped up.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New intel suggests Russia is prepared to launch an attack before the Olympics end, sources say
> 
> 
> Tensions between Moscow and Kyiv are at their highest in years, with a large Russian troop buildup near the shared borders of the two former Soviet republics. Follow for live news updates.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Czech_pivo said:


> In terms of Chernobyl - if  the Ukrainians really, true believe that they may go completely under, they could easily drop a few fuel rods from there into some Russian drinking sources......


Yep, If I were Russia, I would make capturing the exclusion zone a PRI 1 in any conflict.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Yep, If I were Russia, I would make capturing the exclusion zone a PRI 1 in any conflict.


And if I was the Ukraine I would have this option on the table as a viable option.


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> And if I was the Ukraine I would have this option on the table as a viable option.


That's why I mentioned Russian Decon units and if they are in Belarus


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Also, the Russian Navy has apparently blockaded Ukraine in all but name:









						Russia Looks Like It Wants To All But Wall Off Ukraine's Coastlines Next Week
					

The timing of Russian drills that could restrict access to much of the northern Black Sea and the Sea of Azov is concerning.




					www.thedrive.com
				










They've issues NOTAMs to all commercial vessels to avoid these areas due to live firing.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Spencer100 said:


> CNN is all pumped up.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New intel suggests Russia is prepared to launch an attack before the Olympics end, sources say
> 
> 
> Tensions between Moscow and Kyiv are at their highest in years, with a large Russian troop buildup near the shared borders of the two former Soviet republics. Follow for live news updates.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com



Of course they are!  War is big business for them.  Especially as their ratings have plummeted since the ousting of Trump and as Rogan continues to use them as a play toy.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Current location of the Russian ship Ustinov -





__





						MarineTraffic: Global Ship Tracking Intelligence | AIS Marine Traffic
					

MarineTraffic Live Ships Map. Discover information and vessel positions for vessels around the world. Search the MarineTraffic ships database of more than 550000 active and decommissioned vessels. Search for popular ships globally. Find locations of ports and ships using the near Real Time ships...



					www.marinetraffic.com
				




Have also spotted 2 German warships (F217 and F214) and a Spanish warship between Sicily and north of Mykonos.


----------



## Blackadder1916

daftandbarmy said:


> *It looks like the role of the artillery is safe *​Ukrainian Drone Drops Molotov Cocktails On Russian Proxy Trenches​An interesting video out of the Donbass region shows a Ukrainian drone dropping improvised incendiary munitions, with great accuracy, into Russian-proxy trenches and bunkers.



I didn't see a whole lot of activity in those trenches, but it could have been nap time.  In the one instance (at 1:21) where I noticed pers moving (_there could have been more, my attention span has diminished with age_) the thought that came to mind was "looks out of shelter and thinks that the section needs more training on stove lighting to avoid flare-up".

But still interesting.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Czech_pivo said:


> Current location of the Russian ship Ustinov -
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> MarineTraffic: Global Ship Tracking Intelligence | AIS Marine Traffic
> 
> 
> MarineTraffic Live Ships Map. Discover information and vessel positions for vessels around the world. Search the MarineTraffic ships database of more than 550000 active and decommissioned vessels. Search for popular ships globally. Find locations of ports and ships using the near Real Time ships...
> 
> 
> 
> www.marinetraffic.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Have also spotted 2 German warships (F217 and F214) and a Spanish warship between Sicily and north of Mykonos.


You'll note that NO NATO SHIPS are currently in the Black Sea.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MOAR countries say it's time to GTFO ....








						UK, Latvia, Montenegro, Norway urge their citizens to leave Ukraine immediately
					

British Foreign and Commonwealth Office announced the evacuation of diplomats and advises citizens not to visit Ukraine




					112.international


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> You'll note that NO NATO SHIPS are currently in the Black Sea.


I was wondering that.  Is that the case or have they turned off their locators?


----------



## Spencer100

Humphrey Bogart said:


> You'll note that NO NATO SHIPS are currently in the Black Sea.


I think that is smart.  They can control the entire Black sea.  Would ships not be sitting ducks?


----------



## Halifax Tar

Spencer100 said:


> I think that is smart.  They can control the entire Black sea.  Would ships not be sitting ducks?



The Russians, I suspect, would sink anyone they want with impunity in the Black Sea.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Czech_pivo said:


> I was wondering that.  Is that the case or have they turned off their locators?


There are none:









						‘Dangerous moment’: Russian naval buildup near Ukraine hits Cold War levels
					

While the world watches Russia's tanks and troops, a quiet and remarkable flotilla is growing.




					www.politico.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Also, the Russian Navy has apparently blockaded Ukraine in all but name:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia Looks Like It Wants To All But Wall Off Ukraine's Coastlines Next Week
> 
> 
> The timing of Russian drills that could restrict access to much of the northern Black Sea and the Sea of Azov is concerning.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedrive.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> They've issues NOTAMs to all commercial vessels to avoid these areas due to live firing.


Only *INITIAL* reports from UKR media, but at least some of the restrictions _may_ be being lifted.








						Russia cancels scheduled Azov Sea blockade, Black Sea still to be blocked
					

Earlier, on 9 February, Russia issued warnings about its closure of the Black and Azov Seas "for missile and artillery exercises," starting from 21:00 UTC 13 February 2022 to 21:00 UTC 19 February 2022. No corridors were provided for the passage of merchant ships. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs...




					euromaidanpress.com
				











						Russia cancels blocking of Sea of Azov – USPA
					

State-owned enterprise "Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority" (USPA) said Russia cancelled the blocking of the Sea of Azov.




					en.interfax.com.ua
				



Also confirmed by RUS state media, but, ya know ....


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> There are none:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ‘Dangerous moment’: Russian naval buildup near Ukraine hits Cold War levels
> 
> 
> While the world watches Russia's tanks and troops, a quiet and remarkable flotilla is growing.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.politico.com


So NATO bailed on Romania and Bulgaria?  WTF

All that show 2 weeks ago of Spain sending 2 warships to the Black Sea, of the Germans sending a frigate, the French sending a frigate - of us sending HMCS Montreal was all a farce then.  Wow.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Czech_pivo said:


> So NATO bailed on Romania and Bulgaria?  WTF


From the article:



> In total, the Black Sea deployment is the largest grouping of amphibious assets since the end of the Cold War.



Also Russia has a SAG in the Mediterranean shadowing the NATO TG.  I wouldn't be surprised if they had significant sub-surface assets in both the Med and Black Sea. 

You don't want the NATO TG stuck in the Black Sea.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> So NATO bailed on Romania and Bulgaria?  WTF
> 
> All that show 2 weeks ago of Spain sending 2 warships to the Black Sea, of the Germans sending a frigate, the French sending a frigate - of us sending HMCS Montreal was all a farce then.  Wow.


Just a show. I said it before, and I'm saying it now.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1492203844155150339


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

I am just wondering, if they do decide to launch, what will the Casus Belli be?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I am just wondering, if they do decide to launch, what will the Casus Belli be?


One UKR OSINT site's guess (PDF of English translation - original Telegram post in Ukrainian): false flag sabotage of bridge to Crimea.


----------



## Altair

Rocket launched at Russia

Russian ship sinks, all hand on board saved

Sabotage/terrorism.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Rocket launched at Russia
> 
> Russian ship sinks, all hand on board saved
> 
> Sabotage/terrorism.


The Russian don't do thing like that half assed -- they would sacrifice a ship and crew to gain "the moral high ground".


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> The Russian don't do thing like that half assed -- they would sacrifice a ship and crew to gain "the moral high ground".


You're not wrong, but it would be a riskier play and leave him open to criticism if .....

Yeah, I wont finish that ridiculous sentence.


----------



## suffolkowner

Altair said:


> well, the only good news here is the slip of the tongue of the president going to war over taiwan might be considered telegraphing of moves.


Did he actually say that? I didn't see it. I can't see how anyone would consider an American defence of Taiwan credible especially with this President


----------



## Altair

suffolkowner said:


> Did he actually say that? I didn't see it. I can't see how anyone would consider an American defence of Taiwan credible especially with this President











						Biden says United States would come to Taiwan's defense
					

The United States would come to Taiwan's defense and has a commitment to defend the island China claims as its own, U.S. President Joe Biden said on Thursday, though the White House said later there was no change in policy towards the island.




					www.reuters.com
				






> The United States would come to Taiwan's defense and has a commitment to defend the island China claims as its own, U.S. President Joe Biden said on Thursday, though the White House said later there was no change in policy towards the island.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> From the article:
> 
> 
> 
> Also Russia has a SAG in the Mediterranean shadowing the NATO TG.  I wouldn't be surprised if they had significant sub-surface assets in both the Med and Black Sea.
> 
> You don't want the NATO TG stuck in the Black Sea.


So the fact the the Med is basically the bathtub of the French, Spanish, Italian, Greek and Turkish navies, plus has substantial US and British assets in it and our single Frigate, plus 2 German frigates, means nothing? 
Is it being said that all of these assets (plus all the land based fighters) can’t manage what the Russians have brought to bear in the Med/Black Sea?
Pathetic


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I am just wondering, if they do decide to launch, what will the Casus Belli be?


Just because.


----------



## blacktriangle

Czech_pivo said:


> So the fact the the Med is basically the bathtub of the French, Spanish, Italian, Greek and Turkish navies, plus has substantial US and British assets in it and our single Frigate, plus 2 German frigates, means nothing?
> Is it being said that all of these assets (plus all the land based fighters) can’t manage what the Russians have brought to bear in the Med/Black Sea?
> Pathetic


The capability exists, but the intent does not.


----------



## suffolkowner

Altair said:


> Biden says United States would come to Taiwan's defense
> 
> 
> The United States would come to Taiwan's defense and has a commitment to defend the island China claims as its own, U.S. President Joe Biden said on Thursday, though the White House said later there was no change in policy towards the island.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


Ok I thought it was supposed to be in the other article.

Going to be a lot harder to oppose China than Russia


----------



## Altair

suffolkowner said:


> Ok I thought it was supposed to be in the other article.
> 
> Going to be a lot harder to oppose China than Russia


yeah, but its more about intent. 

The USA seems to have the goal to stop China, while taking their foot off of Russia.


----------



## MilEME09

blacktriangle said:


> The capability exists, but the intent does not.


We have more assets in the med, we would have a easier time hitting the Russians in Syria, and keeping them bottled up in the black sea, then using shore and air based anti ship missiles to clear them out. Then once clear move our own TF in ti hit Sevastopol.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> We have more assets in the med, we would have a easier time hitting the Russians in Syria, and keeping them bottled up in the black sea, then using shore and air based anti ship missiles to clear them out. Then once clear move our own TF in ti hit Sevastopol.


But people insisted that the NATO TF could deny areas in the Black sea to the Russian Navy, thus providing indirect support to Ukraine....


----------



## blacktriangle

MilEME09 said:


> We have more assets in the med, we would have a easier time hitting the Russians in Syria, and keeping them bottled up in the black sea, then using shore and air based anti ship missiles to clear them out. Then once clear move our own TF in ti hit Sevastopol.


Call me a cynic, but I think TPTB are hoping to drag Russia into a protracted insurgency. The MIC will get to sell some weapons, military brass will use it to lobby for increased defence spending, and the IC will use it as a collection opportunity.


----------



## Altair

blacktriangle said:


> Call me a cynic, but I think TPTB are hoping to drag Russia into a protracted insurgency. The MIC will get to sell some weapons, military brass will use it to lobby for increased defence spending, and the IC will use it as a collection opportunity.


We are assuming Russia is occupying Ukraine as opposed to a quick regime change operation. 

Any insurgency will only hurt Ukraine further.


----------



## suffolkowner

blacktriangle said:


> Call me a cynic, but I think TPTB are hoping to drag Russia into a protracted insurgency. The MIC will get to sell some weapons, military brass will use it to lobby for increased defence spending, and the IC will use it as a collection opportunity.


It's a mistake to think anyone cares about Ukraine. If we can bleed Russia dry thats just as good


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> yeah, but its more about intent.
> 
> The USA seems to have the goal to stop China, while taking their foot off of Russia.





Altair said:


> We are assuming Russia is occupying Ukraine as opposed to a quick regime change operation.
> 
> Any insurgency will only hurt Ukraine further.


It’s the same coin no matter if it’s heads or tails.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> It’s the same coin no matter if it’s heads or tails.


I don't think China is looking for regime change as opposed to annexation. 

Putin, for all appearances seems to want a federal Ukraine, so he can play the regions off of the central government, or simply a strongman ally in charge in Kiev. 

Neither scenario calls for Russian forces to be in Ukraine for an extended period of time.


----------



## blacktriangle

Altair said:


> Any insurgency will only hurt Ukraine further.


While I don't entirely disagree, that's not for us to decide. It's ultimately up to the citizenry of Ukraine to determine their future.


----------



## Altair

blacktriangle said:


> While I don't entirely disagree, that's not for us to decide. It's ultimately up to the citizenry of Ukraine to determine their future.


Yes, if the people of Ukraine want to fight against 

1) A newly federated Ukraine

or

2)Putins Puppet gov in Kiev

that is entirely up to the people of Ukraine. But I don't see Vlad shedding many tears for Ukrainian servicemen and women dying to Ukrainian insurgents.


----------



## Dana381

With tensions rising in Ukraine and Russia's history of flying Bear bombers near our northern airspace do you think the AOPS and a frigate or two will make a run up there soon? AOPS to break ice and Frigates for AD and ASW. I'm sure the RCN will be keeping an extra close watch on Russian subs in the Atlantic and Pacific also.

If Russia got a ballistic missile sub in range of Canada HMCS Montreal would be sailing over there for nothing.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Altair said:


> But people insisted that the NATO TF could deny areas in the Black sea to the Russian Navy, thus providing indirect support to Ukraine....



It would have to be one hell of a NATO TG to be victorious in the Black Sea.  

And any victory that might happen I can't see being long lived as resupply and sustaining the victory would be near impossible.


----------



## Altair

Halifax Tar said:


> It would have to be one hell of a NATO TG to be victorious in the Black Sea.
> 
> And any victory that might happen I can't see being long lived as resupply and sustaining the victory would be near impossible.


So all that talk of the TF not being for show was bunk?


----------



## blacktriangle

Altair said:


> But I don't see Vlad shedding many tears for Ukrainian servicemen and women dying to Ukrainian insurgents.


I suspect that sentiment broadly applies to the rich & powerful around the world, regardless of the who/what/where/why of a conflict.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Altair said:


> So all that talk of the TF not being for show was bunk?



I don't speak for others friend.  

I have 3 deployments into the Black Sea.   I am intimately aware of Russia's numerical superiority and the near impossibility or proper of effective sustainment.  I have never once provided orsupported an illusion of a possible victory in that sea.


----------



## Dana381

Russian tanks stuck
Over a dozen Russian tanks stuck in the mud during military exercise


----------



## suffolkowner

Dana381 said:


> Russian tanks stuck
> Over a dozen Russian tanks stuck in the mud during military exercise


our LAV 6's could handle that no problem lol


----------



## Czech_pivo

Halifax Tar said:


> I don't speak for others friend.
> 
> I have 3 deployments into the Black Sea.   I am intimately aware of Russia's numerical superiority and the near impossibility or proper of effective sustainment.  I have never once provided orsupported an illusion of a possible victory in that sea.


So where’s the news report by the Feds that HMCS Montreal will not be deployed to the Black Sea at this time as it’s too dangerous and the fact that the entire NATO TF has left the Black Sea entirely? 
They want there to be the illusion that we have a ship there and that we (and NATO) are actually doing something. 
Pathetic


----------



## Czech_pivo

suffolkowner said:


> our LAV 6's could handle that no problem lol


Would love to see some Ukkie artillery smash them.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Czech_pivo said:


> So where’s the news report by the Feds that HMCS Montreal will not be deployed to the Black Sea at this time as it’s too dangerous and the fact that the entire NATO TF has left the Black Sea entirely?
> They want there to be the illusion that we have a ship there and that we (and NATO) are actually doing something.
> Pathetic



You'll accept the Govs apologies if the don't consult or advise you directly about ship movements.  

If sent I have no doubt MTL will do her duty no matter the task.


----------



## suffolkowner

From a weather perspective it looks like Russia might have missed its window.

The Black Sea is a shooting gallery for anyone its not like its safe for Russian ships either. It's just I'm not sure if Ukraine has the capability to engage in that manner, unless the US has shipped some goodies over secretly

edit









						ДК «Укроборонпром» — ми робимо Україну сильною!
					

Державний концерн «Укроборонпром» є стратегічним виробником озброєння та військової техніки в Україні. Концерн об’єднує підприємства оборонної промисловості держави.




					ukroboronprom.com.ua


----------



## Czech_pivo

Dana381 said:


> Russian tanks stuck
> Over a dozen Russian tanks stuck in the mud during military exercise





suffolkowner said:


> our LAV 6's could handle that no problem lol


Here’s another view of that.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1492219682350407681


----------



## Czech_pivo

Halifax Tar said:


> You'll accept the Govs apologies if the don't consult or advise you directly about ship movements.
> 
> If sent I have no doubt MTL will do her duty no matter the task.


It’s a legitimate question to be asked.
If NATO has removed all ships (and ours never even made it there to begin with), then we have a right to know. it smacks too much of ‘we know better than you’. Our Feds and other countries governments, make a show of sending over ships to the Black Sea to support the Ukrainians and then when things begin to look dicey they withdraw the ships and don’t say a bloody word, bull crap.
And yes, I’m sure Montreal would do her duty admirably and with honour.


----------



## Altair

suffolkowner said:


> From a weather perspective it looks like Russia might have missed its window.
> 
> The Black Sea is a shooting gallery for anyone its not like its safe for Russian ships either. It's just I'm not sure if Ukraine has the capability to engage in that manner, unless the US has shipped some goodies over secretly
> 
> edit
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ДК «Укроборонпром» — ми робимо Україну сильною!
> 
> 
> Державний концерн «Укроборонпром» є стратегічним виробником озброєння та військової техніки в Україні. Концерн об’єднує підприємства оборонної промисловості держави.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ukroboronprom.com.ua





Yup, the weather in eastern Ukraine isn't looking great for armored divisions. 

Unless the plan is to pound them from afar until the ground hardens up some.


----------



## MilEME09

Over a dozen Russian tanks stuck in the mud during military exercise
					

Over a dozen main battle tanks were stuck in deep mud during military exercises led by the Russian army in the south of the country. The video, posted Thursday by Liveuamap, was allegedly taken at a military range near the Ukrainian border in the Rostov region. It shows at least a dozen tanks in...




					defence-blog.com
				




Well we can breath some relief for a few days, looks like some complex Russian recovery has to happen.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Halifax Tar said:


> It would have to be one hell of a NATO TG to be victorious in the Black Sea.
> 
> And any victory that might happen I can't see being long lived as resupply and sustaining the victory would be near impossible.


One very narrow way in and one very narrow way out.  A picketing force dream come true.  It would be the World's most deadly torpedo beaten zone.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> One very narrow way in and one very narrow way out.  A picketing force dream come true.  It would be the World's most deadly torpedo beaten zone.


Speaking of which, something from the RUS MoD info-machine from yesterday (links to archive of article in Russian):  _"Sea minesweepers of the Black Sea Fleet "Valentin Pikul" and "Vice-Admiral Zakharyin" worked out the setting of minefields"_

Also, maybe something else to watch for:  separatist rebel media (links to archived article) says Russia's Duma is set to consider recognizing the independence of the occupied eastern Ukraine, while an MSM wire service report says _"Russia's lower house of parliament may seek guidance from the government on whether to call for the recognition of two breakaway Ukrainian regions as independent, its speaker said on Friday, implying that the step could be delayed..."   🍿 _


----------



## Czech_pivo

Zero mention of our 4 CF-18s in Romania and no mention that NATO removed all ships from the Black Sea as well. Perfect example of having the population of the West believe that we actually have ships patrolling in the Black Sea still

NATO Secretary General praises transatlantic unity to protect the Black Sea region​








						NATO Secretary General praises transatlantic unity to protect the Black Sea region
					

On Friday (11 February), NATO Secretary General visited the Mihail Kogălniceanu Military Base (MK) in Romania to greet Allied deployments to the security of Romania and the Black Sea Region.




					www.nato.int


----------



## Czech_pivo

Stars and Stripes provides answers.

US Navy and NATO presence in the Black Sea has fallen since Russia took part of Ukraine, figures show​








						US Navy and NATO presence in the Black Sea has fallen since Russia took part of Ukraine, figures show
					

NATO activity in the Black Sea region has become less frequent since Moscow’s takeover of the Crimean Peninsula nearly eight years ago, sparking concerns that the West is falling short in checking further Russian ambitions in the strategically critical waterway.




					www.stripes.com
				




Sadly this article does not even mention once any Canadian presence in the Black Sea. It mentions Italian, Greek, French, British, US, German, Spanish and Dutch ships - but not CDN.


----------



## Czech_pivo

And this is great article, lots of information, even calls out that the French are to send ships into the Black Sea.









						Three NATO Carrier Groups Are Exercising Together In The Mediterranean
					

Two Russian Navy Slava class cruisers are also underway in the Mediterranean and could be joined by a third that’s now in the Black Sea.




					www.thedrive.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Today's lesson in wordsmithing ...

One country's *"evacuation of most embassy staff in Ukraine"* is another country's attempt to _*"optimize the staff of its diplomatic missions in Ukraine"*__*.*_


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some tidbits ...

Der Spiegel and Politico say sources tell them 16 Feb is (alleged, anyway) D-Day - UKR wants to see the proof while telling folks to be cool.

USA's DefSec is pulling 160 Florida Nat'l Guard troops outta UKR








						Florida National Guard troops ordered out of Ukraine by SECDEF
					

The soldiers, assigned to the 53rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team, have been ordered to reposition elsewhere in Europe,




					www.militarytimes.com
				




Biden, Macron & Blinken each workin' the phones with Putin today


----------



## Quirky

Czech_pivo said:


> Zero mention of our 4 CF-18s in Romania and no mention that NATO removed all ships from the Black Sea as well.


Pretty sure those aircraft left back in December and were replaced by Italian Eurofighters. I don't see us deploying fighters to eastern europe - Russia can actually shoot back.


----------



## McG

Looks like US & British training missions have been ordered to withdrawal from Ukraine.








						U.S., U.K. Pull Military Trainers Out Of Ukraine With Russian Attack Possible ‘Any Day Now’
					

The troops will be repositioned elsewhere in Europe “out of an abundance of caution,” according to the Pentagon.




					www.forbes.com


----------



## Altair

McG said:


> Looks like US & British training missions have been ordered to withdrawal from Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> U.S., U.K. Pull Military Trainers Out Of Ukraine With Russian Attack Possible ‘Any Day Now’
> 
> 
> The troops will be repositioned elsewhere in Europe “out of an abundance of caution,” according to the Pentagon.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.forbes.com


And now we can be sure that fireworks are about to go off.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Altair said:


> And now we can be sure that fireworks are about to go off.



And, with telegraphed moves like this, that's probably what they want Putin to think.


----------



## Altair

daftandbarmy said:


> And, with telegraphed moves like this, that's probably what they want Putin to think.


I think it's just risk management at this point. 

Lightly armed soldiers stuck in an active combat zone is just a bad look and potential diplomatic incident.


----------



## Quirky

McG said:


> Looks like US & British training missions have been ordered to withdrawal from Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> U.S., U.K. Pull Military Trainers Out Of Ukraine With Russian Attack Possible ‘Any Day Now’
> 
> 
> The troops will be repositioned elsewhere in Europe “out of an abundance of caution,” according to the Pentagon.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.forbes.com



Canadian training mission: "You guys got room for another 100 on board?"


----------



## The Bread Guy

Steady .....


> A powerful explosion thundered on the afternoon of February 12 in Donetsk. This is reported by the RT.
> 
> At the same time, the Ateo Telegram channel, citing local journalists, reports that a 152-mm shell exploded in the city.
> 
> There was also information that the military of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are firing from RPGs and mortars in the Horlivka and Donetsk direction.
> 
> It is worth noting that neither the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine nor the departments of unrecognized Donetsk People's Republiv have commented on the relevant information yet ...


Meanwhile, tough words from the UKR Ministry of Defence ...


> ‘Anyone who has ever looked into the eyes of our soldiers knows for sure that the aggressor will not take Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv or any other city’ - a joint statement of Minister of Defence of Ukraine and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces
> 
> “The army and volunteers managed to stand in 2014, when the ‘brother’ brazenly stabbed in the back. At that time, many people were not psychologically ready to resist those with whom they sat at the same table yesterday. Now the situation is completely different. The Kremlin is well aware of this, and it is an important deterrent. Today we have the most powerful army in Ukraine for the last 15 years and the most powerful army in Europe, our army is led by combat generals and officers. Ilovaisk, Debaltsevo left scars on its heart, but hardened its will. The heroic defence of Donetsk and Luhansk airports, the daily defence of dozens of settlements — from Stanytsia Luhanska to Shyrokyne — made the fighting spirit unbreakable. Anyone who has looked our soldiers in the eyes at least once is convinced that there will be no repeat of 2014, that the aggressor will not take Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, or any other city. Do not doubt, the Armed Forces are absolutely ready to fight back and will not give up the Ukrainian lands!” stressed Minister of Defence of Ukraine Oleksii Reznikov ...


Full statement also attached if link doesn't work


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Steady .....
> 
> Meanwhile, tough words from the UKR Ministry of Defence ...
> 
> Full statement also attached if link doesn't work


Reminds me of the words coming out from Yugoslavia in the early days of the war. About brothers/neighbours/friends/coworkers suddenly finding themselves on opposite sides and having to harden their heart and pull the trigger to defend the Rodina/Homeland.
This could get very ugly and bloody if the Ukkies can hold their ground and be willing to take large losses. The longer it drags on and the higher the Russian body count, the greater chance they have of winning.


----------



## Weinie

Czech_pivo said:


> Reminds me of the words coming out from Yugoslavia in the early days of the war. About brothers/neighbours/friends/coworkers suddenly finding themselves on opposite sides and having to harden their heart and pull the trigger to defend the Rodina/Homeland.
> This could get very ugly and bloody if the Ukkies can hold their ground and be willing to take large losses. The longer it drags on and the higher the Russian body count, the greater chance they have of winning.


Conversely, the higher the body count, the more incentive for Russia to use thermobaric and other near-WMD’s to force capitulation. It doesn’t bode well in any scenario.


----------



## Good2Golf

…pretty rapid identification of the artillery round’s calibre by the Russian media…

Maybe RT has a JCAT (journalistic crater analysis team) in its Donbas-region office?


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Weinie said:


> Conversely, the higher the body count, the more incentive for Russia to use thermobaric and other near-WMD’s to force capitulation. It doesn’t bode well in any scenario.


IMO for all the bluster coming out of the Ukrainian camp, I envision a rapid capitulation with sustained pressure from a massive Russian show of force.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> IMO for all the bluster coming out of the Ukrainian camp, I envision a rapid capitulation with sustained pressure from a massive Russian show of force.


... maybe poked along by selective RUS missile/air strikes until UKR cries uncle without having to send troops in?

Meanwhile ...


> Ottawa is relocating its embassy from Kyiv and is expected to move military trainers out of the country after U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced Saturday that he was ordering 160 U.S. troops to leave Ukraine in anticipation of a Russian invasion.
> 
> A senior Canadian official confirmed that Ottawa has been readying contingency plans to move about 260 soldier-trainers out of Ukraine, likely to Poland or Latvia where Canada has a contingent of troops.
> 
> The removal of Western military trainers is part of a co-ordinated plan, led by the United States, according to the official ...


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> And this is great article, lots of information, even calls out that the French are to send ships into the Black Sea.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Three NATO Carrier Groups Are Exercising Together In The Mediterranean
> 
> 
> Two Russian Navy Slava class cruisers are also underway in the Mediterranean and could be joined by a third that’s now in the Black Sea.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedrive.com


That is an absolute ass tonne of firepower.
    Enough to lay waste to anything in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov IF there was desire or will.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

The Bread Guy said:


> ... maybe poked along by selective RUS missile/air strikes until UKR cries uncle without having to send troops in?
> 
> Meanwhile ...


I mean, Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 pretty much without firing a shot.  Yes there has been a sustained border war in Donetsk and Luhansk but if a 100 BTGs cross the border?

Well that will be something else entirely.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I mean, Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 pretty much without firing a shot.  Yes there has been a sustained border war in Donetsk and Luhansk but if a 100 BTGs cross the border?
> 
> Well that will be something else entirely.


Slightly different situation to me, though.  They already had troops in Crimea (although they got more, to be sure), so it was (to truly wordsmith) less of an invasion and more of a "top up."  

If we assume RUS troops are in the occupied areas, there could be a "top up", but you're right about 100 BGs rolling into now-unoccupied UKR being a VERY different story.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I mean, Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 pretty much without firing a shot.  Yes there has been a sustained border war in Donetsk and Luhansk but if a 100 BTGs cross the border?
> 
> Well that will be something else entirely.


The UNA kept fighting the Soviets well into the 1950s in western Ukraine, long after they had any chance of winning. There are many who hate Russians for what they have been doing to Ukrainians since the Russian Civil War a hundred years ago.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Czech_pivo said:


> The UNA kept fighting the Soviets well into the 1950s in western Ukraine, long after they had any chance of winning. There are many who hate Russians for what they have been doing to Ukrainians since the Russian Civil War a hundred years ago.


Yes an insurgency is very likely if an occupation occurs.



The Bread Guy said:


> Slightly different situation to me, though.  They already had troops in Crimea (although they got more, to be sure), so it was (to truly wordsmith) less of an invasion and more of a "top up."
> 
> If we assume RUS troops are in the occupied areas, there could be a "top up", but you're right about 100 BGs rolling into now-unoccupied UKR being a VERY different story.


By comparison, Ukraine has a single Armoured Brigade to defend Kyiv.  If it kicks off this is going to look like Poland 1939.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Yes an insurgency is very likely if an occupation occurs.


And I'd bet an ugly insurgency, with militias happy to get nasty and ... colour outside the lines a bit like they did in 2014.  Mind you, RUS's not afraid of colouring outside the lines dealing with insurgents, either.


Humphrey Bogart said:


> By comparison, Ukraine has a single Armoured Brigade to defend Kyiv.  If it kicks off this is going to look like Poland 1939.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Yes an insurgency is very likely if an occupation occurs.
> 
> 
> By comparison, Ukraine has a single Armoured Brigade to defend Kyiv.  If it kicks off this is going to look like Poland 1939.


Time will tell. But I’ve got images of hundreds of small, hunter-killer groups armed with Javelins and those nifty Brit antitank weapons roaming all through the villages and towns.

If the Ukkies fall back and blend into the woodwork and pop up here, there and everywhere with these anti-tanks, it will be hell for the Russians to hold land.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Czech_pivo said:


> Time will tell. But I’ve got images of hundreds of small, hunter-killer groups armed with Javelins and those nifty Brit antitank weapons roaming all through the villages and towns.


We saw similar things in Syria.  The Russians have shown they aren't afraid to wipe out grid squares.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> We saw similar things in Syria.  The Russians have shown they aren't afraid to wipe out grid squares.


Quite possible, they did the same on the Eastern front in the last war.
But, if they are looking at regime change and a loving population that is meek and subservient, that will not be the way to do it. Memories are very very long in Eastern Europe. They know how to hold a grudge for centuries and payback is swift and brutal when it comes.


----------



## suffolkowner

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Yes an insurgency is very likely if an occupation occurs.
> 
> 
> By comparison, Ukraine has a single Armoured Brigade to defend Kyiv.  If it kicks off this is going to look like Poland 1939.


What are they doing with the rest I wonder?


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

suffolkowner said:


> What are they doing with the rest I wonder?


Well they only actually have four armoured brigades for the entire country.  One is defending Kyiv.


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Well they only actually have four armoured brigades for the entire country.  One is defending Kyiv.


They also have armour with their Airborne and naval infantry brigades adding another 4


----------



## suffolkowner

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Well they only actually have four armoured brigades for the entire country.  One is defending Kyiv.


Is that right? Their armoured vehicles are comparable or exceed the Russians Southern and Western Military Districts Combined and they have been refurbishing/upgrading with ERA, new engines etc.. 5 T64's, 5 T-72's and 5 T80's a month for well over a year now


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

suffolkowner said:


> Is that right? Their armoured vehicles are comparable or exceed the Russians Southern and Western Military Districts Combined and they have been refurbishing/upgrading with ERA, new engines etc.. 5 T64's, 5 T-72's and 5 T80's a month for well over a year now


20 Brigades in the Army, 4 of which are Armoured Brigades.  Each Armoured Brigade has 3 Tank Battalions and 1 Mechanized Infantry Battalion.  

Each Battalion has approx 40-50 vehicles w/ 400 soldiers each.

You also need to remember some of these units were destroyed in the war in Donbass and had to be completely reconstituted.  The 1st Armoured Brigade was almost entirely destroyed.


----------



## The Bread Guy

RUS state media (archive link):  West is pulling military instructors, so they _MUST_ be done preparing UKR for shenanigans ...


> ... "We were told these so-called instructors were to help Ukraine with self-defense in case of aggression. No aggression - they were there; no aggression - but they are already pulled out from there. It evidences their mission was completed there, they did something there," she noted.  The scenario planned by the West probably does not anticipate presence of military instructors in Ukraine, (RUS MFA spokesperson Maria) Zakharova added ...


----------



## Good2Golf

Humphrey Bogart said:


> IMO for all the bluster coming out of the Ukrainian camp, I envision a rapid capitulation with sustained pressure from a massive Russian show of force.


…true, but there are still a few UA BM-30 Smerch batteries to hand some stuff back to Vlad.  Less CDE on the return path, too…


----------



## suffolkowner

PM: International partners have supplied military aid worth about $1.5B to Ukraine
					

To date, the international partners have provided Ukraine with military and defensive assistance to the tune of about $1.5 billion. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				




$1.5B in military aid. Ukraine says thanks Canada for all the nice words

over 2000 NLAW and over 1000 Javelins


----------



## suffolkowner

This article describes the artillery available on the Ukrainian side pretty well









						A Russia-Ukraine War: A Missile and Artillery Battle Like No Other?
					

Does Ukraine Have Stand-off Strike Capabilities to Counter Russia’s Missiles and Artillery?: There is a significant possibility that the buildup of Russian forces around Ukraine may herald a new invasion in the coming days and weeks. One especially notable aspect of Ukraine’s vulnerability to...




					www.19fortyfive.com
				




also I found this interesting

"Recognizing Ukraine desperately needed more assets to neutralize Russian artillery, the U.S. reportedly donated to Ukraine from 2015-2019 thirteen AN/TPQ-36 Firefinder and 20 newer AN/TQP-53 Quick Reaction counterbattery radars. The latter can detect rockets out to 37 miles (60 km) away, and shells, 21 miles away (36 km) while scanning across a 90 degree arc, or out to shorter distance in 180 degree scan modes.

These radars arguably did more to enable Ukrainian forces than higher-profile donations of Javelin anti-tank missiles. Reportedly, Ukrainian units overwatched by these radars had casualty rates decrease from 47% to 18%."


----------



## Czech_pivo

suffolkowner said:


> This article describes the artillery available on the Ukrainian side pretty well
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A Russia-Ukraine War: A Missile and Artillery Battle Like No Other?
> 
> 
> Does Ukraine Have Stand-off Strike Capabilities to Counter Russia’s Missiles and Artillery?: There is a significant possibility that the buildup of Russian forces around Ukraine may herald a new invasion in the coming days and weeks. One especially notable aspect of Ukraine’s vulnerability to...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.19fortyfive.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> also I found this interesting
> 
> "Recognizing Ukraine desperately needed more assets to neutralize Russian artillery, the U.S. reportedly donated to Ukraine from 2015-2019 thirteen AN/TPQ-36 Firefinder and 20 newer AN/TQP-53 Quick Reaction counterbattery radars. The latter can detect rockets out to 37 miles (60 km) away, and shells, 21 miles away (36 km) while scanning across a 90 degree arc, or out to shorter distance in 180 degree scan modes.
> 
> These radars arguably did more to enable Ukrainian forces than higher-profile donations of Javelin anti-tank missiles. Reportedly, Ukrainian units overwatched by these radars had casualty rates decrease from 47% to 18%."


Any chance we could get the US to donate some of these to us, lol.


----------



## MilEME09

Chechens and Georgians in Ukraine preparing to continue fight against Putin on a new front
					

Ukraine and its chaotic democracy have become a magnet for many, including some dissident Russians, who are opposed to Mr. Putin and his increasing dominance over the post-Soviet space




					www.theglobeandmail.com
				




As battles lines are drawn, why Ukraine continues to draw in anti putin forces to join their ranks.


----------



## Kirkhill

Quoted in full because:  Pay wall

Maybe.... maybe not.



> From the frontlines to the Kyiv cafes, Ukrainians shrug as the West warns of apocalypse​After eight years of conflict, weary Ukrainian citizens are living as normally as possible amid extraordinary and terrifying events
> 
> ByRoland Oliphant, SENIOR FOREIGN CORRESPONDENT , IN BERDYANSK and Nataliya Vasilyeva MOSCOW13 February 2022 • 4:55pm
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Seven years ago, half of Lyuda Razimova's seaside family home, the two-storey garage, and much of the surrounding orchard was blown to bits by a Russian artillery barrage.
> 
> But she, her husband and their two children, then teenagers, refused to leave their frontline village. And they have no intention of leaving now, even if they are less than a mile from where Russian forces are likely to attack if Vladimir Putin gives the invasion order.
> 
> "Where would we go?" she said, with only a small hint of irritation when asked why she is still living in Berdyansk, once a pleasant resort on the Azov coast. "Mariupol is as likely to fall as here if it happens. Besides, do you know how much it costs to rent a flat in Mariupol? We couldn't afford to eat. You're better off on your own land."
> 
> If there is one thing the past eight years of war in Ukraine have shown it is that people find a way of carrying on with their lives amid the most extraordinary and terrifying events.
> 
> And never has it been more apparent than in the refusal by many here to be intimidated by the threat of an imminent invasion.
> 
> According to the British and American governments, Russia's invasion of Ukraine may begin on Wednesday. Embassies have begun evacuating staff and airlines cancelling flights.
> 
> If their prophecies are correct, the independent Ukraine that has existed since the fall of the Soviet Union may be facing destruction in a rain of fire poured down by Mr Putin's army.
> 
> And yet from the cafes of Kyiv to the shrapnel-scarred villages of rural Donbas, ordinary civilians have been almost united in a refusal to seriously entertain, let alone be intimidated, by such a prospect.
> 
> Part of the reason is that Ukrainians are already jaded by conflict.
> 
> There is not a town in the country without a war memorial bearing the portraits of young local men killed in the conflict in the east that Mr Putin's agents ignited in 2014.
> 
> Periodic scares about a more substantial invasion have failed to materialise and in Kyiv and other cities outside Donbas, the war is a distant rumble that barely affects daily life.
> 
> Many here are done with speculation and have learned not to panic - they will believe Russian troops have encircled Kharkiv, landed at Odessa or stormed Mariupol when they see it.
> 
> If in Kyiv and other cities the boy cried wolf a dozen times too often, the civilians in Donbas have just become accustomed to living with the wolf - and sometimes in between two of them.
> 
> “We live between two fighting sides. Sometimes shells fly. We’ve lost three windows and had some shrapnel in the roof, but the house is OK,” Tatiana, a 53-year-old whose house lies between two sets of opposing trenches, told the Telegraph last week.
> 
> Tatiana, who did not wish to give her surname, teaches Ukrainian language and literature in Granitnoye, a small country town reachable only by an almost impassable road over the crest of the Donbas ridge.
> 
> But she lives with her husband, daughter and five-year-old grandson in Stary Mariivka, a village just across the river which marked the limit of Ukrainian control when the Minsk agreements fixed the opposing armies in place nearly eight years ago.
> 
> It is a precarious existence, and not just because of the crossfire.
> 
> She works and usually does her shopping in Granitnoye, trudging every weekday morning - along with many of the school's students - through thick mud to the single wooden footbridge where Ukrainian troops allow locals to cross the lines.
> 
> But the nearest hospital is in Telmanove, the district centre now under the pro-Russian Donetsk People’s Republic. In a medical emergency, there is no question about which way to turn.
> 
> On both sides, she said, suspicious soldiers subject civilians to questioning and searches. It is prudent to avoid political questions.
> 
> For staff and roughly 150 pupils (half the pre-war student body) at the school overlooking no-man's land, the conflict has become like the weather, she says.
> 
> In September 2021, a rehearsal for the traditional parade marking the first day of the new academic year was interrupted by a light shower of mortar rounds. Once the bombardment had cleared up, the children and teachers were back to the rehearsal.
> 
> “Everyone who lives here is a hero. They are all heroes. The children are heroes especially,” said Tatiana. “They keep studying. They keep the town and the school alive. They keep life going.”
> 
> It is not only in war-weary Ukraine where an invasion seems impossible.
> 
> To most Russians, unless they work in media or political consulting, the risk of an impending war with Ukraine is as far-fetched as the chance of getting hit by a chunk of melting snow.
> 
> In Moscow, the outdoor skating rinks are full, a major exhibition of a 20th century artist is pre-booked for a month in advance and high street retailers all try to lure customers for a Valentine’s Day shopping spree.
> 
> Alexandra Turchenkova, 33, who works at a Moscow theatre, found out about the Ukraine crisis just a few weeks ago by stumbling upon an article shared on social media.
> Disaster is incomprehensible​“I didn’t know anything about that escalation until I saw some posts on Facebook,” Ms Turchenkova said. “Other than that, there isn’t much discussion about it. If I think about the people I met recently, this subject never came up. Not once."
> 
> Perhaps people are not talking about it because the scale of the disaster being discussed is incomprehensible
> For many in both countries the idea of Russia bombing Kyiv, a gem of Slavic culture universally loved in both, just seems demented.
> 
> Even after eight years of war and 14,000 deaths, the division of Russians and Ukrainians into mortal enemies is difficult for many to get their heads around.
> Tatiana is particularly disgusted by attempts by either side in the conflict to weaponise language as a tool of identity.
> 
> “I have acquaintances who are teachers in [Russian-controlled] Donetsk, and they say it is the same: they are trying to stamp out Ukrainian there the same way they have tried it with Russian here,” she said, referring to a language law that insists all classes are taught in Ukrainian.
> 
> “I am completely against it. You should speak every language you can,” she said.
> 
> It is a particular tragedy in Donbas, which had a unique multi-lingual culture in which locals could tell one another's home village simply by the particular mixed dialect they used, and especially in Granitnoye, which is by heritage neither Ukrainian nor Russian.
> 
> It was founded by Crimean Greeks who Catherine the Great resettled here in the 1780s. And although their Turkish-influenced language had almost vanished by the late Soviet period, the identity remains strong.
> 
> Larissa Azzheurova, the school's English teacher, has got hold of textbooks in a bid to teach herself a mother tongue she herself never knew. She will not be moving if there is an invasion. "We're patriots of our own land," she said, meaning the village.
> 
> Back in Berdyansk, silence fell as Lyuda’s son Dmitry finished chainsawing firewood and began stacking tools in the shelled-out house that now serves as a shed.
> His is 25, and his wife and three-year-old son also live in the family home.
> 
> Nearby, a hooded crow patrolled a deserted beach facing a white frozen sea. The war seemed a long way off.
> 
> “It has to end. It’s been eight years and we just have no more strength,” said Lyuda. “Is a compromise possible? Of course it is.”











						From the front lines to the Kyiv cafes, Ukrainians shrug as the West warns of apocalypse
					

After eight years of conflict, weary Ukrainian citizens are living as normally as possible amid extraordinary and terrifying events




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## Colin Parkinson

hmm interesting


----------



## daftandbarmy

Czech_pivo said:


> Any chance we could get the US to donate some of these to us, lol.



I have an idea I got from a movie I watched a few years ago:


----------



## The Bread Guy

The Bread Guy said:


> ... maybe something else to watch for:  separatist rebel media (links to archived article) says Russia's Duma is set to consider recognizing the independence of the occupied eastern Ukraine, while an MSM wire service report says _"Russia's lower house of parliament may seek guidance from the government on whether to call for the recognition of two breakaway Ukrainian regions as independent, its speaker said on Friday, implying that the step could be delayed..."   🍿_


Latest on this:  seems like (if Google translation's to be believed) two resolutions are moving up the chain (archive link to saved RUS state media article) with one of them _"a decision to appeal to the president on the recognition of the DPR and LPR "with preliminary consultations with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, so that the Foreign Ministry would study the legal and legal aspects".  _

Short version:  legislators are calling on Putin to recognize the occupied areas as independent.

Still steps to go, but still dangling over Ukraine's/the West's heads ....

Meanwhile, nothing inspires confidence like ....


> Ukrainian oligarchs and wealthy businessmen are fleeing the country as tensions with Russia reach a boiling point and Western countries order their citizens to leave, the Ukrainskaya Pravda news website reported Monday. At least 20 chartered flights departed from Kyiv on Sunday, more than at any other time in the last six years of flight observations, Ukrainskaya Pravda reported, citing flight logs. Ukraine's two richest men Rinat Akhmetov and Viktor Pinchuk are among those who have reportedly fled ...


Akhmetov is one of the guys whose steelworkers ran separatists outta town in Mariupol (pretty critical port & industrial city) in 2014, allowing it to stay in UKR control. If this guy's GTFO'ing ....


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Latest on this:  seems like (if Google translation's to be believed) two resolutions are moving up the chain (archive link to saved RUS state media article) with one of them _"a decision to appeal to the president on the recognition of the DPR and LPR "with preliminary consultations with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, so that the Foreign Ministry would study the legal and legal aspects".  _
> 
> Short version:  legislators are calling on Putin to recognize the occupied areas as independent.
> 
> Still steps to go, but still dangling over Ukraine's/the West's heads ....
> 
> Meanwhile, nothing inspires confidence like ....
> 
> Akhmetov is one of the guys whose steelworkers ran separatists outta town in Mariupol (pretty critical port & industrial city) in 2014, allowing it to stay in UKR control. If this guy's GTFO'ing ....


Akhmetov has most likely a price on his head, wanted 'Dead or Dead'.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Dana381 said:


> With tensions rising in Ukraine and Russia's history of flying Bear bombers near our northern airspace do you think the AOPS and a frigate or two will make a run up there soon? AOPS to break ice and Frigates for AD and ASW.



No



Dana381 said:


> I'm sure the RCN will be keeping an extra close watch on Russian subs in the Atlantic and Pacific also.



Depending on what you define “close watch” as;  if you mean “getting data from others who are doing that task” then I’d agree. 



Dana381 said:


> If Russia got a ballistic missile sub in range of Canada HMCS Montreal would be sailing over there for nothing.



They’re in range pretty much once they slips lines.  

 MONs location isn’t relevant to the NORAD task and likely won’t be reassigned to the “northern” ASW gig.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Dana381 said:


> With tensions rising in Ukraine and Russia's history of flying Bear bombers near our northern airspace do you think the AOPS and a frigate or two will make a run up there soon? AOPS to break ice and Frigates for AD and ASW. I'm sure the RCN will be keeping an extra close watch on Russian subs in the Atlantic and Pacific also.
> 
> If Russia got a ballistic missile sub in range of Canada HMCS Montreal would be sailing over there for nothing.



I don't want to alarm you but there are very strong chances, a near certainty, that Russian ballistic missile submarines are already off our coasts. Nothing restricts Russia from tooting about in international waters off our coasts.


----------



## OceanBonfire

How far some of the Russian forces have travelled to come near the Ukraine border:














						Russian Buildup Near Ukraine Features Potent Weapons Systems, Well-Trained Troops
					

The more than 130,000 troops Moscow has in the region are still too few to seize and occupy the whole of Ukraine, according to U.S. assessments. However, the deployments provide Russia’s commanders formidable advantages.




					www.wsj.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

One OSINT-ite's summary ...


----------



## OceanBonfire

> The Western security sources said mercenaries were deploying from Russian private military companies (PMCs) with close ties to the Federal Security Service (FSB), the main successor to the Soviet-era KGB, and the GRU military intelligence agency.
> 
> Among those deployed in recent weeks was a former GRU officer who also worked in the Wagner mercenary group. The former officer has gone to Donetsk, one of two regions in eastern Ukraine controlled by pro-Russian separatists since 2014, the sources said.
> 
> ...
> 
> The Russian mercenary groups have supplied weapons, experienced special operations personnel and military training to pro-Russian militias in eastern Ukraine, the sources said.
> 
> The sources also told Reuters that some operatives of the Wagner mercenary group have been embedded on the Ukrainian border after training at a GRU base near the southern Russian city of Krasnodar.











						EXCLUSIVE Russian mercenaries with spy links increasing presence in Ukraine
					

Russian mercenaries with ties to Moscow's spies have increased their presence in Ukraine in recent weeks, stoking fears among some NATO members that Russia could try to engineer a pretext for an invasion, three senior Western security sources said.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Blackadder1916

OceanBonfire said:


> How far some of the Russian forces have travelled to come near the Ukraine border:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian Buildup Near Ukraine Features Potent Weapons Systems, Well-Trained Troops
> 
> 
> The more than 130,000 troops Moscow has in the region are still too few to seize and occupy the whole of Ukraine, according to U.S. assessments. However, the deployments provide Russia’s commanders formidable advantages.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.wsj.com



A good graphic representation of Russian defence priorities.  It shows where they garrison troops, near the borders of potential adversaries on the most likely approaches to invade neighbours or to defend against invasion.  I note that nothing came from the vast northern centre of Siberia, that part with the coastline on the Arctic Ocean, similar to Canada.


----------



## KevinB

OceanBonfire said:


> EXCLUSIVE Russian mercenaries with spy links increasing presence in Ukraine
> 
> 
> Russian mercenaries with ties to Moscow's spies have increased their presence in Ukraine in recent weeks, stoking fears among some NATO members that Russia could try to engineer a pretext for an invasion, three senior Western security sources said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


Saying the Wagner Group are Mercenaries are like saying GRS contractors for the CIA are mercenaries.
  It's an Arm of the FSB in all reality -


----------



## Czech_pivo

Someone is flying some overwatch in the Black Sea.  I'm sure there's lots and lots to see right now.









						HOMER11 Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware
					

Track HOMER11 flight from Chania Int'l, Ioannis Daskalogiannis to Chania Int'l, Ioannis Daskalogiannis




					flightaware.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

Well the Ukkies are calling on Wednesday as their D-Day.


Ukraine's Zelenskiy says Wednesday will be "day of attack" by Russia​




Joanna Walters
A video address from Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy to his nation has been posted in English on Facebook, saying: “We are told that February 16 will be the day of attack.”




 Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv earlier today during his meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Photograph: Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters
Zelenskiy does not cite a source for the information. In a different translation on the Reuters news wire, he is quoted as saying: “They tell us February 16 will be the day of the attack.”
He then goes on to say, according to Reuters: “We will make it a day of unity. They are trying to frighten us by yet again naming a date for the start of military action.”
In the Facebook translation, Zelenskiy continues: “We are intimidated by a great war and once again set the date of the military invasion. This is not the first time.
“But our state is stronger today than ever. We strive for peace and want to solve all issues exclusively through negotiations.”
Such a statement is surprising and, if the president has been reliably informed of the timing of a planned incursion, or invasion, it is utterly extraordinary. The Hill also reported the Facebook post.
The Facebook post translation further says: “We have one great European aspiration. We want freedom and are ready to vote for it. 14 thousand defenders and civilians who died in this war [since the Russian aggression in Ukrainian territory since 2014] are watching us from the sky.
“And we will not betray their memory. We all want to live happily, and happiness loves the strong. We have never been able to give up and we are not going to learn that.Love Ukraine! We are at peace! We are strong! We are together!”


----------



## Kirkhill

OceanBonfire said:


> How far some of the Russian forces have travelled to come near the Ukraine border:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian Buildup Near Ukraine Features Potent Weapons Systems, Well-Trained Troops
> 
> 
> The more than 130,000 troops Moscow has in the region are still too few to seize and occupy the whole of Ukraine, according to U.S. assessments. However, the deployments provide Russia’s commanders formidable advantages.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.wsj.com


Does that look sustainable to anyone?

He has hollowed out every other force available.  Including, if I am reading the map right, troops from the NATO frontiers of Norway, Estonia and Latvia as well as the borders of the Caucasus.

It is a mighty big gamble to put all the available forces in one theater and then challenge the rest of the world to do something.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> Well the Ukkies are calling on Wednesday as their D-Day.
> 
> 
> Ukraine's Zelenskiy says Wednesday will be "day of attack" by Russia​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Joanna Walters
> A video address from Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy to his nation has been posted in English on Facebook, saying: “We are told that February 16 will be the day of attack.”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv earlier today during his meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Photograph: Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters
> Zelenskiy does not cite a source for the information. In a different translation on the Reuters news wire, he is quoted as saying: “They tell us February 16 will be the day of the attack.”
> He then goes on to say, according to Reuters: “We will make it a day of unity. They are trying to frighten us by yet again naming a date for the start of military action.”
> In the Facebook translation, Zelenskiy continues: “We are intimidated by a great war and once again set the date of the military invasion. This is not the first time.
> “But our state is stronger today than ever. We strive for peace and want to solve all issues exclusively through negotiations.”
> Such a statement is surprising and, if the president has been reliably informed of the timing of a planned incursion, or invasion, it is utterly extraordinary. The Hill also reported the Facebook post.
> The Facebook post translation further says: “We have one great European aspiration. We want freedom and are ready to vote for it. 14 thousand defenders and civilians who died in this war [since the Russian aggression in Ukrainian territory since 2014] are watching us from the sky.
> “And we will not betray their memory. We all want to live happily, and happiness loves the strong. We have never been able to give up and we are not going to learn that.Love Ukraine! We are at peace! We are strong! We are together!”


Full statement in English here








						Address of the President of Ukraine on the unity of Ukrainian society — Official website of the President of Ukraine
					

We are confident in our Armed Forces, but our military must also feel our support, our cohesion and our unity. The foothold of our army is the confidence of their own people and a strong economy.




					www.president.gov.ua


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:


> Does that look sustainable to anyone?
> 
> He has hollowed out every other force available.


Who's going to attack RUS - the Baltic countries, or China - now that those flanks are at least more open?


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> Who's going to attack RUS - the Baltic countries, or China - now that those flanks are at least more open?



As I noted.  

If all those garrisons are gathered in one location, one theater, and Putin gets it wrong, he turns all those troops and vehicles into targets.  He may not have many people that want to take him on tank for tank but he is short of friends if the east turns into Kazakhstan, Chechenya and Georgia.   Turkey may decide to assist Ukraine if it senses weakness.

And the West?  What happens if some of the West finds some backbone, or the Ukrainians treat the Russians the way the Turks and Azerbaijanis have been handling them and the Syrians.   Even in the Caucasus generally the Russians don't have a stellar track record.  Or Ukraine for that matter.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:


> ... What happens if some of the West finds some backbone ...


Based on what's happened so far, I'd be happily surprised if some Western backbone was found.


----------



## Kilted

The Bread Guy said:


> One OSINT-ite's summary ...
> View attachment 68700


Based on this, Russia has 10 of their 12 armies on the border with Ukraine.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> ... A video address from Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy to his nation has been posted in English on Facebook, saying: “We are told that February 16 will be the day of attack.” ... Zelenskiy does not cite a source for the information. In a different translation on the Reuters news wire, he is quoted as saying: “They tell us February 16 will be the day of the attack.”  ...


Also, he HAS been asking since earlier this week for some evidence after the initial Politico/Der Spiegel announcements.


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Based on what's happened so far, I'd be happily surprised if some Western backbone was found.


I find it interesting that embassy staff have been moved to Lwow/Lviv and not completely out of the country. Still of the belief that some western portion of the Ukraine lives to fight another day if things go hot.


----------



## Good2Golf

Kirkhill said:


> As I noted.
> 
> If all those garrisons are gathered in one location, one theater, and Putin gets it wrong, he turns all those troops and vehicles into targets.  He may not have many people that want to take him on tank for tank but he is short of friends if the east turns into Kazakhstan, Chechenya and Georgia.   Turkey may decide to assist Ukraine if it senses weakness.
> 
> And the West?  What happens if some of the West finds some backbone, or the Ukrainians treat the Russians the way the Turks and Azerbaijanis have been handling them and the Syrians.   Even in the Caucasus generally the Russians don't have a stellar track record.  Or Ukraine for that matter.


Speaking about those Chechens…and Georgians…









						Chechens and Georgians in Ukraine preparing to continue fight against Putin on a new front
					

Ukraine and its chaotic democracy have become a magnet for many, including some dissident Russians, who are opposed to Mr. Putin and his increasing dominance over the post-Soviet space




					www.theglobeandmail.com


----------



## MilEME09

OSINT now has identified the 1st Guards Tank Army is being relocated to the Ukrainian Border. This is the tip of the spear of their armoured formations. Once they are in place expect them to go in.



			StackPath
		



And related video 









						Massive Russian Helicopter Formation Filmed Along Ukrainian Border
					

A massive formation of over 20 Russian military rotary aircraft was recorded by a civilian along Russian and Ukrainian boundary lines, and the column included heavily armed attack aircraft, including KA-52 Alligators.




					funker530.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> OSINT now has identified the 1st Guards Tank Army is being relocated to the Ukrainian Border. This is the tip of the spear of their armoured formations. Once they are in place expect them to go in.
> 
> 
> 
> StackPath


----------



## Kirkhill

Kyiv, Ukraine 14 day weather forecast
					

Forecasted weather conditions the coming 2 weeks for Kyiv




					www.timeanddate.com
				




Kyiv Extended Forecast with high and low temperatures​

Feb 14 - Feb 20Feb 21 - Feb 27Feb 28 - Mar 6
See weather overview
2 Week Extended Forecast in Kyiv, Ukraine​
 ConditionsComfortPrecipitationSunDay TemperatureWeatherFeels LikeWind HumidityChanceAmountUVSunriseSunsetTue
Feb 15



5 / -4 °CSunny.0 °C16 km/h↑53%0%-0 (Low)7:09 am5:15 pmWed
Feb 16



7 / -2 °CIncreasing cloudiness.3 °C13 km/h↑71%5%-0 (Low)7:07 am5:16 pmThu
Feb 17



9 / 4 °CLight showers. Overcast.5 °C28 km/h↑68%58%3.4 mm0 (Low)7:05 am5:18 pmFri
Feb 18



6 / 3 °CLight showers. Increasing cloudiness.0 °C27 km/h↑79%57%1.9 mm0 (Low)7:04 am5:20 pmSat
Feb 19



9 / 2 °CLight rain. Mostly cloudy.4 °C27 km/h↑65%38%0.2 mm0 (Low)7:02 am5:22 pmSun
Feb 20



8 / 1 °CSprinkles late. Mostly cloudy.5 °C16 km/h↑49%24%0.1 mm0 (Low)7:00 am5:23 pmMon
Feb 21



7 / 2 °CSprinkles late. Cloudy.3 °C17 km/h↑50%24%0.4 mm0 (Low)6:58 am5:25 pmTue
Feb 22



7 / -1 °CSnow showers late. Cloudy.-2 °C15 km/h↑62%52%4.7 mm0 (Low)6:56 am5:27 pmWed
Feb 23



2 / -2 °CMorning clouds.-2 °C18 km/h↑41%48%5.0 mm3 (Moderate)6:54 am5:28 pmThu
Feb 24



4 / 0 °CSunny.3 °C6 km/h↑22%2%-0 (Low)6:52 am5:30 pmFri
Feb 25



4 / 0 °CLight snow late. Increasing cloudiness.1 °C13 km/h↑47%49%5.1 mm0 (Low)6:50 am5:32 pmSat
Feb 26



4 / -1 °CClearing skies.0 °C16 km/h↑56%5%-0 (Low)6:48 am5:34 pmSun
Feb 27



6 / -1 °CSunny.2 °C11 km/h↑47%5%-3 (Moderate)6:46 am5:35 pmMon
Feb 28



6 / 1 °CSunny.4 °C10 km/h↑29%1%-3 (Moderate)6:44 am5:37 pmTue
Mar 1



6 / 1 °CMostly sunny.3 °C15 km/h↑31%5%-3 (Moderate)6:42 am5:39 pm* Updated Monday, February 14, 2022 5:22:42 pm Kyiv time - Weather by CustomWeather, © 2022

I can't speak to Ukrainian mud and ice but this wouldn't be ideal conditions for working fields up here on the Prairies. Anybody know which is worse?  Prairie gumbo or the Ukrainian version?


----------



## suffolkowner

Kirkhill said:


> Does that look sustainable to anyone?
> 
> He has hollowed out every other force available.  Including, if I am reading the map right, troops from the NATO frontiers of Norway, Estonia and Latvia as well as the borders of the Caucasus.
> 
> It is a mighty big gamble to put all the available forces in one theater and then challenge the rest of the world to do something.


Has to be moving very specific pieces.

I believe the Central and Eastern Military Districts have 200,000 troops , the Northern 50,000 and the Western 150,000 and Southen 100,000. So maybe just the best are in place?


----------



## KevinB

Good2Golf said:


> Speaking about those Chechens…and Georgians…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Chechens and Georgians in Ukraine preparing to continue fight against Putin on a new front
> 
> 
> Ukraine and its chaotic democracy have become a magnet for many, including some dissident Russians, who are opposed to Mr. Putin and his increasing dominance over the post-Soviet space
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theglobeandmail.com


If I was a Chechen, I'd be making hay in the Russian backfield, same with the Georgians -- fighting the Russians not on their strengths but where they are weak -- it would be far more damaging to Putin's credibility - if they tore through Moscow and some other cities while the majority of the frontline army was away in the Ukraine.


----------



## KevinB

Meanwhile since he's hoping no one in Canada is watching anything but his Emergency Powers Act...








						Canada to give $500M loan, send $7.8M in lethal weapons to Ukraine: Trudeau
					

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says Canada will provide a $500-million loan and $7.8 million worth of lethal equipment and ammunition to Ukraine as the threat of a Russian invasion grows.




					www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## Kirkhill

suffolkowner said:


> Has to be moving very specific pieces.
> 
> I believe the Central and Eastern Military Districts have 200,000 troops , the Northern 50,000 and the Western 150,000 and Southen 100,000. So maybe just the best are in place?



But that is a pattern going back to at least the Georgian war in 2008.  There has been a reliance on Contractors, Spetsnaz and guys in blue and white striped t-shirts.



The Russian *telnyashka* (Russian: тельня́шка, IPA: [tʲɪlʲˈnʲaʂkə]) is an undershirt horizontally striped in white and various colors and which may be sleeveless. It is an iconic uniform garment worn by the Russian Navy, the Russian Airborne Troops (VDV) and the Russian marines. Dating back to the 19th century Imperial Navy, it was subsequently worn by the Soviet successors of these troops.

Even Spetsnaz were downgraded from GRU and brought back into operational roles because of the lack of reliable troops.


----------



## Kirkhill




----------



## dimsum

KevinB said:


> Meanwhile since he's hoping no one in Canada is watching anything but his Emergency Powers Act...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada to give $500M loan, send $7.8M in lethal weapons to Ukraine: Trudeau
> 
> 
> Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says Canada will provide a $500-million loan and $7.8 million worth of lethal equipment and ammunition to Ukraine as the threat of a Russian invasion grows.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca


He mentioned it in his remarks.


----------



## Kirkhill

From a couple of Swedish capability assessments (2013 and 2016)

Russian Military Capability in a Ten-Year Perspective 2016
Russian Military Capability in a Ten-Year Perspective 2013


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> But that is a pattern going back to at least the Georgian war in 2008.  There has been a reliance on _"Contractors"_, Spetsnaz and guys in blue and white striped t-shirts.


Fixed it for you...


----------



## suffolkowner

Kirkhill I've gotten most of my info on Russian army stuff from this Rand report









						Russia's Limit of Advance
					

Analysis of Russian military capabilities reveals stark limitations in Russia's ability to safely and effectively deploy and sustain ground forces around the world.




					www.rand.org


----------



## Kirkhill

Just noting that before Ukraine was Rus it was Khazar (Khazak) (Cossack) - which is to say it was Turk.  

The Khazar Khaganate - ca 650 to 969 and the fall of Atil to the Rus.

The *Khazars*[a] (/ˈxɑːzɑːrz/) were a semi-nomadic Turkic people that in the late 6th-century CE established a major commercial empire covering the southeastern section of modern European Russia, southern Ukraine, Crimea, and Kazakhstan.[10] They created what for its duration was the most powerful polity to emerge from the break-up of the Western Turkic Khaganate.[11] Astride a major artery of commerce between Eastern Europe and Southwestern Asia, Khazaria became one of the foremost trading empires of the early medieval world, commanding the western marches of the Silk Road and playing a key commercial role as a crossroad between China, the Middle East and Kievan Rus'.[12][13] For some three centuries (c. 650–965) the Khazars dominated the vast area extending from the Volga-Don steppes to the eastern Crimea and the northern Caucasus.[14]









						Khazars - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Kirkhill

suffolkowner said:


> Kirkhill I've gotten most of my info on Russian army stuff from this Rand report
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia's Limit of Advance
> 
> 
> Analysis of Russian military capabilities reveals stark limitations in Russia's ability to safely and effectively deploy and sustain ground forces around the world.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rand.org


Rand and the Swedes seem to concur.

Vlad has a limited ground and air game, and virtually no marine game.  

Which is why he is so eager to advertize his nuclear game - even locally.


----------



## MilEME09

Ukraine crisis: Biden and Johnson say still hope for diplomatic agreement
					

The US and UK leaders shared a call after Russia too suggested a diplomatic solution was still possible.



					www.bbc.com
				




Meanwhile western intelligence has spotted Russian forces moving closer to the border, what the pentagon is defining as starting positions, including artillery units digging in on the border. Sounds like getting ready for h hour to me. Ukraine has been warned D day is Wednesday


----------



## Altair




----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> Speaking about those Chechens…and Georgians…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Chechens and Georgians in Ukraine preparing to continue fight against Putin on a new front
> 
> 
> Ukraine and its chaotic democracy have become a magnet for many, including some dissident Russians, who are opposed to Mr. Putin and his increasing dominance over the post-Soviet space
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theglobeandmail.com


More on Chechen help headed that way ...








						Chechen Rosgvardia Troops Head for Ukraine - Jamestown
					

In a further indication that Russia continues to build up its forces on the border with Ukraine, a convoy with Chechen internal troops has recently been spotted moving northwest, through the North Caucasus, toward the potential war zone. At the end of last month, JaziraNews’s Twitter account...




					jamestown.org


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Meanwhile since he's hoping no one in Canada is watching anything but his Emergency Powers Act...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada to give $500M loan, send $7.8M in lethal weapons to Ukraine: Trudeau
> 
> 
> Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says Canada will provide a $500-million loan and $7.8 million worth of lethal equipment and ammunition to Ukraine as the threat of a Russian invasion grows.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca


In the info-machine's words ....




__





						Canada commits lethal weapons and ammunition in support of Ukraine - Canada.ca
					

Today, the Government of Canada announced that it has authorized the provision of additional military assistance to the government of Ukraine to further help the Ukrainian security forces defend against Russia’s unwanted and escalating aggression against Ukraine.




					www.canada.ca


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Meanwhile since he's hoping no one in Canada is watching anything but his Emergency Powers Act...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada to give $500M loan, send $7.8M in lethal weapons to Ukraine: Trudeau
> 
> 
> Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says Canada will provide a $500-million loan and $7.8 million worth of lethal equipment and ammunition to Ukraine as the threat of a Russian invasion grows.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca


My take on those weapons is that they won’t even make it to the Ukraine. Another case of a day late and a dollar short.
Does the article talk about timelines when the weapons will be delivered? If the media and others have called Wednesday as the possible D-Day, are we delivering the weapons tonight? Tomorrow morning? If it’s the weapons for the Kurds, who will be trained enough to use NATO small arms and 60mm motors and the Carl G in under 24hrs?

Noticing what looks to be a pattern here, Montreal leaves 8 days later than announced for the much fanfared OP Reassurance but never even makes it to the Black Sea, so scratch that contribution. And now, less than 30hrs from the possible D-Day we come out and say, oh, here are 7.8$m of weapons, but no one says the type or number of weapons. Also here is 500$M loan, again 30hrs before you might be invaded and if so, a great chance that we won’t have to honour any loan.
Pathetic - utterly pathetic.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> .... If the media and others have called Wednesday as the possible D-Day, are we delivering the weapons tonight? ...


Hey, hey, hey -- even the Russian deputy envoy to the U.S. says* "no reason for Russia to invade Ukraine on Feb 16" (especially now that everyone is expecting it) 

* - links to archived article, not RUS state media server


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Hey, hey, hey -- even the Russian deputy envoy to the U.S. says* "no reason for Russia to invade Ukraine on Feb 16" (especially now that everyone is expecting it)
> View attachment 68714
> * - links to archived article, not RUS state media server


Clearly it would be the 15th on the Russian calendar


----------



## KevinB

Maybe not?








						Russia says some forces pulling back amid Ukraine crisis
					

The announcement pushed world markets and the ruble up, but U.S. and Ukraine officials expressed skepticism.




					www.militarytimes.com


----------



## Halifax Tar

KevinB said:


> Maybe not?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia says some forces pulling back amid Ukraine crisis
> 
> 
> The announcement pushed world markets and the ruble up, but U.S. and Ukraine officials expressed skepticism.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.militarytimes.com



And then we have this









						Russia sending troops, equipment closer to Ukraine, satellite images show
					

Maxar Technologies collected new satellite images Sunday and Monday that reveal increased Russian military activity in western Russia, Belarus, and Crimea.




					www.militarytimes.com
				




Who knows what's actually happening


----------



## Czech_pivo

Halifax Tar said:


> And then we have this
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia sending troops, equipment closer to Ukraine, satellite images show
> 
> 
> Maxar Technologies collected new satellite images Sunday and Monday that reveal increased Russian military activity in western Russia, Belarus, and Crimea.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.militarytimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Who knows what's actually happening


Its a game of chess - ohhh,  he playing the Sicilian defence, what do we do, what do we do?


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> Its a game of chess - ohhh,  he playing the Sicilian defence, what do we do, what do we do?


He is playing chess while we are playing checkers


----------



## Good2Golf

Czech_pivo said:


> Its a game of chess - ohhh,  he playing the Sicilian defence, what do we do, what do we do?


Well, we know where his pieces are with 10-digit (MGRS) accuracy…


----------



## Spencer100

Czech_pivo said:


> Its a game of chess - ohhh,  he playing the Sicilian defence, what do we do, what do we do?


I know its it's a chess move but this pops in my head.

"The most famous is never get involved in a land war in Asia. But only slightly less well known is this: Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line!"


----------



## daftandbarmy

Spencer100 said:


> I know its it's a chess move but this pops in my head.
> 
> "The most famous is never get involved in a land war in Asia. But only slightly less well known is this: Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line!"



Irrelevant tangent:

Cave Dale in Derbyshire was an excellent hill for 'beasting' Junior Soldiers up and down during adventure training.

There is some beautiful climbing and walking to be had in Derbyshire, should you ever get the need for a bit of an adventure like that.









						Cave Dale - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Clearly it would be the 15th on the Russian calendar


Well, if you go by Orthodox Christmas vs. Rest of the World Christmas as a guide, it'll be a couple of weeks later - think on or about mid-first-week-of-March  

Ironically, in my part of the world, many call Orthodox Christmas "Ukrainian Christmas" given the number of Ukrainian heritage folks living here.


----------



## Kirkhill

Curious if Putin is moving Rosgvardia units in while moving combat units out.  MASSIVELY big IF.

But where is he anticipating the civil unrest to occur if he hasn't already occupied Ukraine?

The folks in the Rostov-Sochi area haven't been getting many good nights sleep for the last 7 years.  Or is that 15?  23?


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> He is playing chess while we are playing checkers


... and poorly ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

The G-word is out there now via Putin ...


> President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that Russia does not want a war in Europe, but described the situation in east Ukraine's breakaway regions as *"genocide"* and called for the conflict there to be resolved through the Minsk peace progress ....


Although RUS state media use the term in its English-language stories, it doesn't appear in either the Kremlin's official English or Russian comments (a transcript of sorts from the Kremlin info-machine talks about "In Ukraine, human rights are massively and systematically violated, discrimination against the Russian-speaking population is fixed at the legislative level", but not the G-word)


----------



## Good2Golf

If Bombast-level 3 gets rolled back, it’s still Bombast-level 2 or 1…ie. Still bombast.


----------



## GR66

I'm nowhere near smart enough to hazard a guess as to whether the Russians will actually invade or not, but to my mind Vlad is in a somewhat similar situation with Ukraine as the Chinese are with Taiwan.  

They are the big, strong, bullying neighbours and the threat of possible invasion hangs over Ukraine/Taiwan like the Sword of Damocles, figuring into their every decision.  However, IF Russia/China do actually invade then they are kind of in a "must win" situation.  If either Ukraine or Taiwan were to actually bloody the nose of their attacker or even halt their initial thrust, then the attacker could have a serious problem.

If they fail to achieve their objectives through initial force then they risk looking weak like a paper tiger and any future threats will be much less meaningful...but if they have to resort to extreme measures (for example massive firepower causing excessive civilian casualties or even limited WMD use), then they also risk both alienating any allies they have that don't wish to be painted with the same brush and/or mobilizing the rest of the free world against them in a meaningful way.


----------



## KevinB

GR66 said:


> I'm nowhere near smart enough to hazard a guess as to whether the Russians will actually invade or not, but to my mind Vlad is in a somewhat similar situation with Ukraine as the Chinese are with Taiwan.
> 
> They are the big, strong, bullying neighbours and the threat of possible invasion hangs over Ukraine/Taiwan like the Sword of Damocles, figuring into their every decision.  However, IF Russia/China do actually invade then they are kind of in a "must win" situation.  If either Ukraine or Taiwan were to actually bloody the nose of their attacker or even halt their initial thrust, then the attacker could have a serious problem.
> 
> If they fail to achieve their objectives through initial force then they risk looking weak like a paper tiger and any future threats will be much less meaningful...but if they have to resort to extreme measures (for example massive firepower causing excessive civilian casualties or even limited WMD use), then they also risk both alienating any allies they have that don't wish to be painted with the same brush and/or mobilizing the rest of the free world against them in a meaningful way.


They also need to be somewhat worried what the whimsical West would do if they bombed the crap out of their target(s).
   Western Governments lack any spine up until it hits the in the polls - if their voters get pissed with it, then politicians trigger a Mil Response.
 The Western Government can bring unfathomable power to bear - and we've seen in the recent times, that removing a head of state with a military strike is not off the table.


----------



## MarkOttawa

Conclusion of a post by Julian Lindsey-French:



> Frozen War: The Whiff of Munich?​...
> That Putin is even contemplating such a war – frozen or hot - is due in no small part to the strategic illiteracy of too many Western European leaders. Yes, there was the 2008-2010 financial and economic crisis and, yes, we have just faced the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it is the disastrous pieties of the post-Cold War which for too long Britain, France and Germany have clung to, which has led Europe into this new age of danger which has just dawned. It is the profoundly mistaken belief to which for too long political leaders have clung that geo-economics will trump the dark side of geopolitics. That they need recognise only as much threat as they thought they could afford politically or financially. It is the absence of leadership in Europe which has created the opportunity for Putin to impose his fiat on other Europeans. One can only hope that if Russia does force such a dreadful war upon Ukraine it would finally begin the long overdue bonfire of strategic illusions that has underpinned the denial which has afflicted Western Europe and its leaders.
> 
> The West will not intervene with force in Ukraine but Putin must be seen to pay a heavy price and that means real sanctions and the strengthening of NATO’s defence and deterrence posture so that there is no Alliance bluff Putin can also call. If President Putin succeeds in destroying Ukraine do not for a moment think his ambitions will stop there. Ukraine may be not be the whiff of Munich, but it has the scent of Singapore. It is time for democracies to stand firm, and together.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Frozen War: The Whiff of Munich?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> lindleyfrench.blogspot.com



Mark
Ottawa


----------



## MilEME09

We could take a page from the Russians, send in "volunteers" just as we happen to donate a few dozen F16s and munitions, or some A-10s....


----------



## OceanBonfire

Nothing like making the situation worse:









						Russian parliament to discuss draft bills on Donbass recognition
					

Russia's parliament will vote on Tuesday to decide whether to ask President Vladimir Putin to recognise two Russian-backed breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent, the speaker of the Duma lower house said.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## suffolkowner

Be lots of questions that can only be answered by a Russian invasion. The weather and ground conditions do not seem to be in Russia's favour as it looks like an early spring is in the works. Can Ukraine's air defence systems force Russia to use up its limited number of precision weapons and turn to unguided bombs delivered from altitude? Can the defend the marine approaches with missiles and mines? Forcing Russia to go toe to toe on the ground is Ukraines best hope.

Another interesting article









						Invading Ukraine is a really bad idea
					

Putin should just say no to pointless blunders




					www.slowboring.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

OceanBonfire said:


> Nothing like making the situation worse:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian parliament to discuss draft bills on Donbass recognition
> 
> 
> Russia's parliament will vote on Tuesday to decide whether to ask President Vladimir Putin to recognise two Russian-backed breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent, the speaker of the Duma lower house said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


So far, Russia's Parliament has agreed to movie it up to the Putin-meister to consider the idea.  Yet another thing to dangle over Ukraine's & the West's heads.

Mind you, he also must know how much it would cost to provide even MOAR "fraternal assistance" to these guys, based on how much they reportedly spend now.

Also, something that doesn't exactly inspire confidence ....








						Ukrainian Parliament approves bill banning MPs from leaving country
					

The same concerns Cabinet members, their deputies, heads of regional state administrations and other local governing agencies, as well as service staff of the Armed Forces, top-level law enforcers and leaders of strategically important offices




					112.international


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> So far, Russia's Parliament has agreed to movie it up to the Putin-meister to consider the idea.  Yet another thing to dangle over Ukraine's & the West's heads.
> 
> Mind you, he also must know how much it would cost to provide even MOAR "fraternal assistance" to these guys, based on how much they reportedly spend now.
> 
> Also, something that doesn't exactly inspire confidence ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian Parliament approves bill banning MPs from leaving country
> 
> 
> The same concerns Cabinet members, their deputies, heads of regional state administrations and other local governing agencies, as well as service staff of the Armed Forces, top-level law enforcers and leaders of strategically important offices
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 112.international


To be fair, they always seem to leave


----------



## Blackadder1916

The Bread Guy said:


> Also, something that doesn't exactly inspire confidence ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian Parliament approves bill banning MPs from leaving country
> 
> 
> The same concerns Cabinet members, their deputies, heads of regional state administrations and other local governing agencies, as well as service staff of the Armed Forces, top-level law enforcers and leaders of strategically important offices
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 112.international



Similar elements in a sub-plot of one of the episodes of Zelenskyy's TV show.  Guess Ukrainian public officials were known for "vacationing" outside the country in places with a reputation for bank secrecy.


----------



## The Bread Guy

The Bread Guy said:


> So far, Russia's Parliament has agreed to movie it up to the Putin-meister to consider the idea.  Yet another thing to dangle over Ukraine's & the West's heads.
> 
> Mind you, he also must know how much it would cost to provide even MOAR "fraternal assistance" to these guys, based on how much they reportedly spend now ...


Latest via RUS state media (archive link) on RUS parliament asking Putin to recognize the occupied areas of UKR:   Putin's spokesperson says _"noted, but if we did this, we wouldn't be following the plan (Minsk accords) that we forced on the Ukrainians to stop the shooting in 2014 or so and would still work in our favour."_

Not a clear "never happen", but not a "good idea, let me think about it", either.


----------



## Good2Golf

Putin: “Duma, ask me about endorsing the Donbas as independent.  I want it to appear as those it is the will of the Russian people, on behalf of their families in the Donbas, not just m me pressing my anti-West ideology.”

Duma: “Dear President Putin, we as a people believe the people of the Donbas should be recognized by you as an independent Russian oblast out of respect for their Russian heritage and support over the centuries.”

Putin: "Hmmm, thank you for bringing the people’s will to my attention!”


----------



## KevinB

Biden warns Russia that war on Ukraine would be ‘bloody and destructive’
					

The U.S. president's latest comments come amid conflicting reports of Russian intentions in the region.




					www.militarytimes.com
				




We will write you a nasty note...


----------



## daftandbarmy

Good2Golf said:


> Putin: “Duma, ask me about endorsing the Donbas as independent.  I want it to appear as those it is the will of the Russian people, on behalf of their families in the Donbas, not just m me pressing my anti-West ideology.”
> 
> Duma: “Dear President Putin, we as a people believe the people of the Donbas should be recognized by you as an independent Russian oblast out of respect for their Russian heritage and support over the centuries.”
> 
> Putin: "Hmmm, thank you for bringing the people’s will to my attention!”



I wish we had words like 'Oblast', 'Duma' and 'Pogrom'.


----------



## Czech_pivo

As of 10hrs ago -Dmitriy Rogochev crossing into the Black Sea





__





						MarineTraffic: Global Ship Tracking Intelligence | AIS Marine Traffic
					

MarineTraffic Live Ships Map. Discover information and vessel positions for vessels around the world. Search the MarineTraffic ships database of more than 550000 active and decommissioned vessels. Search for popular ships globally. Find locations of ports and ships using the near Real Time ships...



					www.marinetraffic.com


----------



## dimsum

daftandbarmy said:


> I wish we had words like 'Oblast', 'Duma' and 'Pogrom'.


I mean, you could call the HoC the "Duma" but I don't know if it'll help things...


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> *We will write you a nasty note...*


I thought that was the UN's job.


----------



## daftandbarmy

This gives some pretty interesting insights into how the crisis reflects has revealed varying levels of European unity regarding questions of security...


The crisis of European security: What Europeans think about the war in Ukraine​It may be unsurprising that the threat of Russian invasion has revived the West of the cold war era. But, intriguingly, it has also challenged the popular perception that, when it comes to security, eastern Europeans are ready to dismiss the EU because they view the US as their only reliable partner. In fact, in all surveyed countries except Germany, most people believe that both NATO and the EU should respond to Russian aggression.

It is true that Europeans differ on whom they trust to protect their interests in the event of another Russian invasion of Ukraine. Respondents in Poland, Germany, Romania, and Italy primarily trust NATO to do so, whereas those in France, Sweden, and Finland mostly trust the EU. Sweden and Finland are the only surveyed countries outside NATO but, as ECFR’s poll shows, in neither state is there a public consensus on whether to join the alliance. In Sweden, 30 per cent of respondents are glad that their country is not a member of NATO and 33 per cent say it is a bad thing; in Finland, these figures are 35 per cent and 25 per cent per cent respectively.









						The crisis of European security: What Europeans think about the war in Ukraine
					

Europeans are united around three key ideas about the war in Ukraine. The crisis will likely test their readiness to defend the European security order.




					ecfr.eu


----------



## Czech_pivo

daftandbarmy said:


> This gives some pretty interesting insights into how the crisis reflects has revealed varying levels of European unity regarding questions of security...
> 
> 
> The crisis of European security: What Europeans think about the war in Ukraine​It may be unsurprising that the threat of Russian invasion has revived the West of the cold war era. But, intriguingly, it has also challenged the popular perception that, when it comes to security, eastern Europeans are ready to dismiss the EU because they view the US as their only reliable partner. In fact, in all surveyed countries except Germany, most people believe that both NATO and the EU should respond to Russian aggression.
> 
> It is true that Europeans differ on whom they trust to protect their interests in the event of another Russian invasion of Ukraine. Respondents in Poland, Germany, Romania, and Italy primarily trust NATO to do so, whereas those in France, Sweden, and Finland mostly trust the EU. Sweden and Finland are the only surveyed countries outside NATO but, as ECFR’s poll shows, in neither state is there a public consensus on whether to join the alliance. In Sweden, 30 per cent of respondents are glad that their country is not a member of NATO and 33 per cent say it is a bad thing; in Finland, these figures are 35 per cent and 25 per cent per cent respectively.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The crisis of European security: What Europeans think about the war in Ukraine
> 
> 
> Europeans are united around three key ideas about the war in Ukraine. The crisis will likely test their readiness to defend the European security order.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ecfr.eu


The Poles have bought credit in the US, they backed the US in Iraq/Afghanistan, they have bought the F35, are modernizing their armed forces and are spending decent money on maintaining/expanding it. Its a bit harder for some of the other former Warsaw Pact countries to say the same.  The Poles want an actively engaged US presence in Europe and in fact, they would love to have the US shift troops from Germany and into Poland, helps them economically and offers a great deterrent to the Russians.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Czech_pivo said:


> The Poles have bought credit in the US, they backed the US in Iraq/Afghanistan, they have bought the F35, are modernizing their armed forces and are spending decent money on maintaining/expanding it. Its a bit harder for some of the other former Warsaw Pact countries to say the same.  The Poles want an actively engaged US presence in Europe and in fact, they would love to have the US shift troops from Germany and into Poland, helps them economically and offers a great deterrent to the Russians.



Tangent....

I know a guy who went into Poland after the Wall came down to set up some ranges for NATO.

His discussion of the impact area trace with the Range Control staff included things like:

'If you want to deploy poison gas as part of your battle run we usually put them over here as the prevailing winds from that part of the impact area don't drift into neighbouring villages...'

He loved working with the Poles as a result, of course


----------



## Czech_pivo

daftandbarmy said:


> Tangent....
> 
> I know a guy who went into Poland after the Wall came down to set up some ranges for NATO.
> 
> His discussion of the impact area trace with the Range Control staff included things like:
> 
> 'If you want to deploy poison gas as part of your battle run we usually put them over here as the prevailing winds from that part of the impact area don't drift into neighbouring villages...'
> 
> He loved working with the Poles as a result, of course


Of all the former Warsaw Pact members that we gained when the wall went down, the Poles are the most fun to be around, less dour than the Czechs/Slovaks and less fatalistic than the Romanians/Bulgarians.  I used to enjoy my times when I had to travel to Poland when I was working in the Czech Republic.  The first thing that I would notice was the use of 'colour' in the people's clothing choices, the Czech's were always grey/black but the Poles loved to use colour, especially the women, they always dressed/looked like they were going to the Ball.


----------



## KevinB

So NATO is looking at making some larger permanent force commitments to Eastern Europe









						NATO considering new battlegroups in Eastern Europe to deter Russia
					

“Our military commanders will now work on the details and report back within weeks,” alliance Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said in Brussels.




					www.defensenews.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> So NATO is looking at making some larger permanent force commitments to Eastern Europe
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> NATO considering new battlegroups in Eastern Europe to deter Russia
> 
> 
> “Our military commanders will now work on the details and report back within weeks,” alliance Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said in Brussels.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.defensenews.com



An example of the right kind of leader for this mission


----------



## Eye In The Sky

“…and our Commanders will report back in a few weeks after we see what Russia is actually going to do…”


----------



## Weinie

daftandbarmy said:


> I wish we had words like 'Oblast', 'Duma' and 'Pogrom'.


Pfft. We have Dildo, NFLD. The Defence rests, your Honour.


----------



## dimsum

Czech_pivo said:


> they would love to have the US shift troops from Germany and into Poland, helps them economically


_Cue massive influx of Polish girlfriends/wives to US bases_


----------



## Blackadder1916

Weinie said:


> Pfft. We have Dildo, NFLD. The Defence rests, your Honour.



Common sayings that don't work well for some locations.  "You can take the boy out of Dildo, but you can't take  . . . " - that just sounds wrong.


----------



## The Bread Guy

This from Estonian int ....


> ... In our assessment, the Russian armed forces are ready to embark on a full-scale military operation against Ukraine from the second half of February. Once military readiness has been achieved, only a political decision is required to launch the operation. If Russia chooses war, the level of military threat across Europe will rise. Although war in Ukraine would not pose an immediate military threat to Estonia or NATO, Russia’s political and military pressure on the Baltic states could increase in the long term should Russia achieve diplomatic and/or military success on the Ukraine issue. Even if Russia’s leadership can be persuaded to desist from military aggression, Estonia and other Western countries must prepare for increasingly sustained military pressure from Russia – direct threats of war have become an integral part of the foreign policy of Putin’s Russia over the past year.


Full summary attached


----------



## Kat Stevens

.


----------



## MilEME09

Weinie said:


> Pfft. We have Dildo, NFLD. The Defence rests, your Honour.


Thank god we never put a base there.....


----------



## Good2Golf

Kat Stevens said:


> .


----------



## The Bread Guy

More on the whole genocide thing (archive link to RUS state media) 


> The Russian Investigative Committee said on Wednesday it had opened a criminal case after the discovery of mass graves of civilians in Donbass.
> 
> "A criminal case was initiated on the discovery of mass graves of civilians in the territory of Donbass ... under part 1 of article 356 of the Russian Criminal Code — ill-treatment of the civilian population, the use of means and methods in an armed conflict prohibited by an international treaty", the statement says.
> 
> "The remains of at least 295 civilians who died as a result of indiscriminate shelling by Ukrainian armed forces in 2014 were exhumed from them. It is already known that among the remains there are bodies of women of different ages", the statement says ...


Let the Russian narrative unfold ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> Akhmetov has most likely a price on his head, wanted 'Dead or Dead'.


This just in:  oligarch back from a trip to Europe, visiting the site of old victories ....


> With President Zelensky calling for a National Day of Unity on Feb. 16, and for business leaders and politicians to demonstrate their support for Ukraine, the country’s leading investor, Donetsk-born, Rinat Akhmetov, returned to Ukraine after a visit to Europe and went to the port city of Mariupol in Ukraine’s east, close to the front-line.
> 
> The oligarch was there to launch a major $1billon investment in Metinvest’s steel facilities in the city and to support the development of the new Metinvest Polytechnic, Ukraine’s private sector technical university, which is being built in the Mariupol.
> 
> Speaking at the press conference in Mariupol, Akhmetov reaffirmed his commitment to the city and his confidence in Ukraine ...


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> More on the whole genocide thing (archive link to RUS state media)
> 
> Let the Russian narrative unfold ....


Sounds like a false flag to me


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> Sounds like a false flag to me


Could be - mind you, that part of the world, like Yugo and others, may have way more mass graves than one initially figures going back who knows how long ago.


----------



## Kirkhill

Somebody must have commented on this already but;

If only we had a pipeline and an LNG terminal or two.




> Over the weekend, Trudeau spoke with the Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy as well as German chancellor Olaf Scholz. According to a readout of the conversation sent out by the Prime Minister’s Office, among the issues discussed with the German leader was “potential future cooperation on liquefied natural gas.”
> 
> Germany is dependent on imported natural gas from Russia, and its supply is threatened by the prospect of conflict with Russia. Peter Tertzakian, managing director of ARC Financial, said there’s not much Canada could do to provide natural exports to Germany right away, because the necessary facilities are still in the process of being built.
> 
> “The need for the gas is now. We are not ready to ship anything, arguably for another two years,” he said. But any sanctions against Russia might last a long time, he noted, meaning Europe could need natural gas imports for years to come.
> 
> “The standoff and the animosity will be there for years,” Tertzakian said.











						Canada to send Ukraine $7.8M worth of lethal weapons and additional $500M loan: Trudeau
					

Justin Trudeau said the move is in response to 'Ukraine's specific request,' with the intent of deterring 'further Russian aggression'




					nationalpost.com


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> Somebody must have commented on this already but;
> 
> If only we had a pipeline and an LNG terminal or two.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada to send Ukraine $7.8M worth of lethal weapons and additional $500M loan: Trudeau
> 
> 
> Justin Trudeau said the move is in response to 'Ukraine's specific request,' with the intent of deterring 'further Russian aggression'
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nationalpost.com


It was pointed out to me earlier in the thread that we physically can't ship enough LNG to put a dent in Europe's gas needs. To fully ween off Russia you would need a massive pipe line system from Canada, through Green land, Iceland, the UK , then mainland Europe.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

MilEME09 said:


> It was pointed out to me earlier in the thread that we physically can't ship enough LNG to put a dent in Europe's gas needs. To fully ween off Russia you would need a massive pipe line system from Canada, through Green land, Iceland, the UK , then mainland Europe.


Poland has been stockpiling LNG, had we built another LNG terminal on the east coast (we have one on the east coast and one under construction on the west coast) We could make a lot of money being their backstop.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> It was pointed out to me earlier in the thread that we physically can't ship enough LNG to put a dent in Europe's gas needs. To fully ween off Russia you would need a massive pipe line system from Canada, through Green land, Iceland, the UK , then mainland Europe.


You could call it Canstream 1, or EABOD-VLAD Stream 1, I think the second has a great ring to it...
   Running across the Labrador Sea to south of Iceland and into the North Sea to Germany and would cut out any other countries if that was an issue.


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> It was pointed out to me earlier in the thread that we physically can't ship enough LNG to put a dent in Europe's gas needs. To fully ween off Russia you would need a massive pipe line system from Canada, through Green land, Iceland, the UK , then mainland Europe.


Or Nord Stream 3?


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> It was pointed out to me earlier in the thread that we physically can't ship enough LNG to put a dent in Europe's gas needs. To fully ween off Russia you would need a massive pipe line system from Canada, through Green land, Iceland, the UK , then mainland Europe.


So you’re saying there’s a chance?


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> You could call it Canstream 1, or EABOD-VLAD Stream 1, I think the second has a great ring to it...
> Running across the Labrador Sea to south of Iceland and into the North Sea to Germany and would cut out any other countries if that was an issue.


I think we call it Pipedream 1.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Czech_pivo said:


> So you’re saying there’s a chance?



LNG goes by ship.

Germany Tries to Loosen Its Ties to Russian Gas Pipelines​An increasingly belligerent Russia, an energy crunch and a new Green minister of economics all add up to a change of direction in Germany’s policy on natural gas.

“The geopolitical situation forces us to create other import opportunities and diversify supply,” Mr. Habeck, who is a member of the environmentalist Greens, said last week. “We need to act here and secure ourselves better. If we don’t, we will become a pawn in the game.”

Now the government is reviving plans for building a terminal for liquefied natural gas, or L.N.G., on Germany’s northern coast. That proposal, long pushed by Washington, was previously shelved as being too costly. But in recent months, liquefied natural gas, arriving via giant tankers from the United States, Qatar and other locations, has become a vital source of fuel for Europe as supplies piped in from Russia have dwindled.

Europe has more than two dozen L.N.G. terminals, including ones in Poland, the Netherlands and Belgium, but the one proposed for Germany’s coast would be the country’s first.









						Germany Tries to Loosen Its Ties to Russian Gas Pipelines
					

An increasingly belligerent Russia, an energy crunch and a new Green minister of economics all add up to a change of direction in Germany’s policy on natural gas.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> I think we call it Pipedream 1.


Only thing we could use to heat Europe, thats environmentally friendly is all the hot air in Ottawa. Could call it Ego Stream 1


----------



## Czech_pivo

daftandbarmy said:


> LNG goes by ship.
> 
> Germany Tries to Loosen Its Ties to Russian Gas Pipelines​An increasingly belligerent Russia, an energy crunch and a new Green minister of economics all add up to a change of direction in Germany’s policy on natural gas.
> 
> “The geopolitical situation forces us to create other import opportunities and diversify supply,” Mr. Habeck, who is a member of the environmentalist Greens, said last week. “We need to act here and secure ourselves better. If we don’t, we will become a pawn in the game.”
> 
> Now the government is reviving plans for building a terminal for liquefied natural gas, or L.N.G., on Germany’s northern coast. That proposal, long pushed by Washington, was previously shelved as being too costly. But in recent months, liquefied natural gas, arriving via giant tankers from the United States, Qatar and other locations, has become a vital source of fuel for Europe as supplies piped in from Russia have dwindled.
> 
> Europe has more than two dozen L.N.G. terminals, including ones in Poland, the Netherlands and Belgium, but the one proposed for Germany’s coast would be the country’s first.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Germany Tries to Loosen Its Ties to Russian Gas Pipelines
> 
> 
> An increasingly belligerent Russia, an energy crunch and a new Green minister of economics all add up to a change of direction in Germany’s policy on natural gas.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com


From what I've quickly read, a single LNG ship can heat for 1yr 75,000 US households.


----------



## Blackadder1916

Czech_pivo said:


> From what I've quickly read, a single LNG ship can heat for 1yr 75,000 US households.











						EU number of households by country 2021 | Statista
					

In 2021 there were approximately 41 million households in Germany, 31 million households in France, and 25.8 million households in Italy, with these three countries having the highest number of households among EU countries.




					www.statista.com
				



In 2020 there were approximately 40.1 million households in Germany, 30.3 million households in France, and 27.8 million households in the United Kingdom, with these three countries having the highest number of households among European countries.









						Germany: household heating sources 2020 | Statista
					

Natural gas and oil are the most common sources of heating in German households.




					www.statista.com
				



Natural gas and oil are the most common sources of heating in German households. In 2020, roughly 50 percent of homes were supplied with heat through natural gas, whilst a quarter of homes were heated with oil.









						Global LNG tanker fleet 2021 | Statista
					

The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker fleet encompassed a total of 700 vessels at the end of 2021.




					www.statista.com
				



The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker fleet encompassed a total of 642 vessels at the end of 2020. 

You do the math.


----------



## Brad Sallows

If you never start something, you're in no danger of ever finishing it.


----------



## TacticalTea

Kirkhill said:


> Somebody must have commented on this already but;
> 
> If only we had a pipeline and an LNG terminal or two.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada to send Ukraine $7.8M worth of lethal weapons and additional $500M loan: Trudeau
> 
> 
> Justin Trudeau said the move is in response to 'Ukraine's specific request,' with the intent of deterring 'further Russian aggression'
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nationalpost.com


You have no idea how much this angers me.

We had a whole project in Quebec that had WARREN BUFFETT's support and would've considerably relieved Russian pressure on Germany.

Gone... thanks to fake-ass activists funded by Big oil and foreign interests and supported by communist useful idiots.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Blackadder1916 said:


> EU number of households by country 2021 | Statista
> 
> 
> In 2021 there were approximately 41 million households in Germany, 31 million households in France, and 25.8 million households in Italy, with these three countries having the highest number of households among EU countries.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.statista.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In 2020 there were approximately 40.1 million households in Germany, 30.3 million households in France, and 27.8 million households in the United Kingdom, with these three countries having the highest number of households among European countries.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Germany: household heating sources 2020 | Statista
> 
> 
> Natural gas and oil are the most common sources of heating in German households.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.statista.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Natural gas and oil are the most common sources of heating in German households. In 2020, roughly 50 percent of homes were supplied with heat through natural gas, whilst a quarter of homes were heated with oil.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Global LNG tanker fleet 2021 | Statista
> 
> 
> The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker fleet encompassed a total of 700 vessels at the end of 2021.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.statista.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker fleet encompassed a total of 642 vessels at the end of 2020.
> 
> You do the math.


If you have 1 ship/day filling up and leaving somewhere on our East Coast and say you can operate the facility for only 330 days/year, the remaining 35 days for routine maintenance. That is 330 ships * 75,000 households = 24,750,000 households, you basically took care of the UK.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> If you have 1 ship/day filling up and leaving somewhere on our East Coast and say you can operate the facility for only 330 days/year, the remaining 35 days for routine maintenance. That is 330 ships * 75,000 households = 24,750,000 households, you basically took care of the UK.


Or you know, maybe German could fire up a few of their mothballed Nuclear plants...

The longer term solution would be a US/CDN -> Europe Pipeline, but it's to going to occur overnight - and the only short term solution to weaken the Russian energy chokehold in Europe is a restart on the Nuclear power option.

  Maybe CANDU should get their sales team spun up as well.


----------



## daftandbarmy

TacticalTea said:


> You have no idea how much this angers me.
> 
> We had a whole project in Quebec that had WARREN BUFFETT's support and would've considerably relieved Russian pressure on Germany.
> 
> Gone... thanks to fake-ass activists funded by Big oil and foreign interests and supported by communist useful idiots.



BC is in the same hurt locker right now.

And I'm sure that the global LNG industry is happy to _not have_Canadian competition to worry about 









						LNG, BC and Me: Five Surprising Things I’ve Learned over the Past Three Years
					

What I learned - and what you need to know - about the liquefied natural gas industry.




					www.cmc-canada.ca


----------



## Czech_pivo

daftandbarmy said:


> LNG goes by ship.
> 
> Germany Tries to Loosen Its Ties to Russian Gas Pipelines​An increasingly belligerent Russia, an energy crunch and a new Green minister of economics all add up to a change of direction in Germany’s policy on natural gas.
> 
> “The geopolitical situation forces us to create other import opportunities and diversify supply,” Mr. Habeck, who is a member of the environmentalist Greens, said last week. “We need to act here and secure ourselves better. If we don’t, we will become a pawn in the game.”
> 
> Now the government is reviving plans for building a terminal for liquefied natural gas, or L.N.G., on Germany’s northern coast. That proposal, long pushed by Washington, was previously shelved as being too costly. But in recent months, liquefied natural gas, arriving via giant tankers from the United States, Qatar and other locations, has become a vital source of fuel for Europe as supplies piped in from Russia have dwindled.
> 
> Europe has more than two dozen L.N.G. terminals, including ones in Poland, the Netherlands and Belgium, but the one proposed for Germany’s coast would be the country’s first.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Germany Tries to Loosen Its Ties to Russian Gas Pipelines
> 
> 
> An increasingly belligerent Russia, an energy crunch and a new Green minister of economics all add up to a change of direction in Germany’s policy on natural gas.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com


A proposed LNG terminal in NS is saying that it cuts 7-8 days time off the US Gulf or Qatar, a fairly significant timeframe, (roughly 10days from Halifax vs 18 days from Galveston, TX. Quicker turnaround time means less ships needed for a constant stream of incoming ships to say, Hamburg and less cost to operate.


----------



## MarkOttawa

An article by the estimable Heather Exnot-Poirot, a specialist in the Arctic and in indigenous peoples (her website here), at the _Calgary Herald_:




> *Opinion: We could’ve been a contender: Canada has missed the boat on LNG opportunities*





> Opinion: We could’ve been a contender: Canada has missed the boat on LNG opportunities
> 
> 
> As the West prepares for the possibility that Russia will invade Ukraine this winter, maintaining natural gas supply to Europe is a key consideration. To that…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> calgaryherald.com



Mark 
Ottawa


----------



## OldSolduer

daftandbarmy said:


> BC is in the same hurt locker right now.
> 
> And I'm sure that the global LNG industry is happy to _not have_Canadian competition to worry about
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> LNG, BC and Me: Five Surprising Things I’ve Learned over the Past Three Years
> 
> 
> What I learned - and what you need to know - about the liquefied natural gas industry.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cmc-canada.ca


I have my theories on who is responsible for the lack of pipelines and its not JT. He's a useful fool.


----------



## OceanBonfire

From UK's Ministry of Defence:








__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1494315294382297091


----------



## Weinie

Czech_pivo said:


> If you have 1 ship/day filling up and leaving somewhere on our East Coast and say you can operate the facility for only 330 days/year, the remaining 35 days for routine maintenance. That is 330 ships * 75,000 households = 24,750,000 households, you basically took care of the UK.


I posted about this a while ago. One of our calculations is wildly off. (and I am not arrogant enough to say it isn't my calculations, but here goes)

The EU consumes (per 2019 figures) about 470,000 million cubic metres of natural gas per year.(about 1.2 billion cubic metres a day). Germany consumes about 90,000 million cubic metres per year (about 245 million cubic metres a day)
List of countries by natural gas consumption - Wikipedia

A typical LNG carrier has about 20 billion gallons of natural gas, which equates to about 9 million cubic metres

LNG Tankers | LNG Carriers | LNG Carrier Size | LNG Carrier Capacity | LNG Tanker Explosion

So to serve the EU and Germany's needs about a third comes from Russia. (400 M a day for the EU, and about 80 M for Germany)

Germany isn't the only country that still needs cheap Russian gas.

So 9 ships a day, every day, for Germany alone, 45 a day for the EU.

Say 15 days transit time (loading/voyage/unloading) across the Atlantic, so each tanker can make 21 voyages annually.  9 x 365/21. Germany would account for about 160 dedicated LNG carriers alone, while the EU would eat up current global capacity.

For pipelines, a typical pipeline in Canada will move about 2 billion ft per day. This equates to about 3.33 million feet of LNG per day, assuming that there is capacity on one of the two coasts to convert it. 3.33 million cubic feet equates to about 95,000 cubic metres.  Each tanker would need about 100 pipelines to fill it.

Liquefied natural gas - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Nordstream, and Nordstream 2, will have an aggregated capacity of 110 billion cubic metres a year. BTW, Russian gas is also cheaper than LNG. (at least economically )

As KevinB said, fire up the boilers in the reactors. Canada and North America aren't capable of coming to Europe's rescue. I am sure that the Duma (Vlad) has factored that into their (his) current posture.

Edited to add: Sweden, with about 1/7th the population of the UK, consumes 1/78th of the natural gas that the UK does, so basically you could heat 1/11th of the UK with 330 ships.


----------



## Altair

Weinie said:


> I posted about this a while ago. One of our calculations is wildly off. (and I am not arrogant enough to say it isn't my calculations, but here goes)
> 
> The EU consumes (per 2019 figures) about 470,000 million cubic metres of natural gas per year.(about 1.2 billion cubic metres a day). Germany consumes about 90,000 million cubic metres per year (about 245 million cubic metres a day)
> List of countries by natural gas consumption - Wikipedia
> 
> A typical LNG carrier has about 20 billion gallons of natural gas, which equates to about 9 million cubic metres
> 
> LNG Tankers | LNG Carriers | LNG Carrier Size | LNG Carrier Capacity | LNG Tanker Explosion
> 
> So to serve the EU and Germany's needs about a third comes from Russia. (400 M a day for the EU, and about 80 M for Germany)
> 
> Germany isn't the only country that still needs cheap Russian gas.
> 
> So 9 ships a day, every day, for Germany alone, 45 a day for the EU.
> 
> Say 15 days transit time (loading/voyage/unloading) across the Atlantic, so each tanker can make 21 voyages annually.  9 x 365/21. Germany would account for about 160 dedicated LNG carriers alone, while the EU would eat up current global capacity.
> 
> For pipelines, a typical pipeline in Canada will move about 2 billion ft per day. This equates to about 3.33 million feet of LNG per day, assuming that there is capacity on one of the two coasts to convert it. 3.33 million cubic feet equates to about 95,000 cubic metres.  Each tanker would need about 100 pipelines to fill it.
> 
> Liquefied natural gas - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
> 
> Nordstream, and Nordstream 2, will have an aggregated capacity of 110 billion cubic metres a year. BTW, Russian gas is also cheaper than LNG. (at least economically )
> 
> As KevinB said, fire up the boilers in the reactors. Canada and North America aren't capable of coming to Europe's rescue. I am sure that the Duma (Vlad) has factored that into their (his) current posture.


Vlad is leaving his invasion to the very last minute. Spring is just around the border, and Europeans wont freeze to death in springtime. 

A quick thaw and he losses all leverage.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Vlad is leaving his invasion to the very last minute. Spring is just around the border, and Europeans wont freeze to death in springtime.
> 
> A quick thaw and he losses all leverage.


Well he does still have over 150k troops around the Ukraine. 

Admittedly his #'s advantage is already dwindling.
  The 82nd and elements of the 101st are nearly all in Poland on the Ukrainian border - and some of the Heavy Divisions and their tanks are moving is as well.
He lost 40k of his number advantage in the past 24hrs/


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Well he does still have over 150k troops around the Ukraine.
> 
> Admittedly his #'s advantage is already dwindling.
> The 82nd and elements of the 101st are nearly all in Poland on the Ukrainian border - and some of the Heavy Divisions and their tanks are moving is as well.
> He lost 40k of his number advantage in the past 24hrs/


You're cute.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> You're cute.


Point?
  It's Open Source news - Team USA is simply moving some assets into theatre to support our NATO allies - like Poland.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Point?
> It's Open Source news - Team USA is simply moving some assets into theatre to support our NATO allies - like Poland.


My point is it wouldn't matter a bit if the entire US military was in Poland if not a single one of them lifted a finger to assist Ukraine. 

So Russia has not lost any number advantage from forces that would actually be fighting.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> My point is it wouldn't matter a bit if the entire US military was in Poland if not a single one of them lifted a finger to assist Ukraine.
> 
> So Russia has not lost any number advantage from forces that would actually be fighting.


Except Team USA has brought an ass ton of gear - and as we have learned from the Russian examples, it's totally legit to have advisers on the ground to help shoot down the others aircraft, or show them how to make IED's, Lead Ambushes - that sort of stuff.

The only US personnel removed from Ukraine was the NG units.


----------



## Weinie

Altair said:


> You're cute.


Just when I almost think you are acting like an adult in a conversation,  you post a juvenile remark like this.


----------



## daftandbarmy

9er this is 19, shots fired, out


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Except Team USA has brought an ass ton of gear - and as we have learned from the Russian examples, it's totally legit to have advisers on the ground to help shoot down the others aircraft, or show them how to make IED's, Lead Ambushes - that sort of stuff.
> 
> The only US personnel removed from Ukraine was the NG units.


And when they end up on the wrong end of a 500Kg?

Yeah right.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> And when they end up on the wrong end of a 500Kg?
> 
> Yeah right.


You lack of knowledge of parts of the world is rather telling.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> You lack of knowledge of parts of the world is rather telling.


Okay, explain to me oh wise one, what happens when a US military advisor ends up blow to hell and back if the Russians attack?

Secret squirrel funeral?

Training accident? 

Military member on vaction to Ukraine in a war zone?

Please, enlighten me.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Weinie said:


> I posted about this a while ago. One of our calculations is wildly off. (and I am not arrogant enough to say it isn't my calculations, but here goes)
> 
> The EU consumes (per 2019 figures) about 470,000 million cubic metres of natural gas per year.(about 1.2 billion cubic metres a day). Germany consumes about 90,000 million cubic metres per year (about 245 million cubic metres a day)
> List of countries by natural gas consumption - Wikipedia
> 
> A typical LNG carrier has about 20 billion gallons of natural gas, which equates to about 9 million cubic metres
> 
> LNG Tankers | LNG Carriers | LNG Carrier Size | LNG Carrier Capacity | LNG Tanker Explosion
> 
> So to serve the EU and Germany's needs about a third comes from Russia. (400 M a day for the EU, and about 80 M for Germany)
> 
> Germany isn't the only country that still needs cheap Russian gas.
> 
> So 9 ships a day, every day, for Germany alone, 45 a day for the EU.
> 
> Say 15 days transit time (loading/voyage/unloading) across the Atlantic, so each tanker can make 21 voyages annually.  9 x 365/21. Germany would account for about 160 dedicated LNG carriers alone, while the EU would eat up current global capacity.
> 
> For pipelines, a typical pipeline in Canada will move about 2 billion ft per day. This equates to about 3.33 million feet of LNG per day, assuming that there is capacity on one of the two coasts to convert it. 3.33 million cubic feet equates to about 95,000 cubic metres.  Each tanker would need about 100 pipelines to fill it.
> 
> Liquefied natural gas - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
> 
> Nordstream, and Nordstream 2, will have an aggregated capacity of 110 billion cubic metres a year. BTW, Russian gas is also cheaper than LNG. (at least economically )
> 
> As KevinB said, fire up the boilers in the reactors. Canada and North America aren't capable of coming to Europe's rescue. I am sure that the Duma (Vlad) has factored that into their (his) current posture.
> 
> Edited to add: Sweden, with about 1/7th the population of the UK, consumes 1/78th of the natural gas that the UK does, so basically you could heat 1/11th of the UK with 330 ships.


I based my calcs of this:
“A Q‐Max tanker can carry about 266,000 cubic meters of LNG, equal to roughly 5.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas in the vapor form burned in furnaces, water heaters and kitchen ranges. That's enough to supply almost 75,000 U.S. households for a year.”

From pg 6. 


			https://www.arlis.org/docs/vol1/AlaskaGas/Paper/Paper_OFC_2014_LNG_CarriersCalledFloatingPipelines.pdf


----------



## Retired AF Guy

daftandbarmy said:


> 9er this is 19, shots fired, out


Taking place along the Donblass region between Ukrainian forces and Russian backed separatist forces. Being going on for what - the last eight years? Pretext for Russian Invasion?


----------



## Weinie

Czech_pivo said:


> I based my calcs of this:
> “A Q‐Max tanker can carry about 266,000 cubic meters of LNG, equal to roughly 5.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas in the vapor form burned in furnaces, water heaters and kitchen ranges. That's enough to supply almost 75,000 U.S. households for a year.”
> 
> From pg 6.
> 
> 
> https://www.arlis.org/docs/vol1/AlaskaGas/Paper/Paper_OFC_2014_LNG_CarriersCalledFloatingPipelines.pdf


Yeah, not fighting you on this, I am genuinely curious and have done some preliminary research IOT understand the box that Germany and the EU have placed themselves in. Gas for heating in Germany accounts for a little over half of consumption, electrical power generation, both for homes and industry, also eats up a substantial portion. So Germany (and by extension the EU) is bound by Maslow and economics.


----------



## Kat Stevens

Weinie said:


> Yeah, not fighting you on this, I am genuinely curious and have done some preliminary research IOT understand the box that Germany and the EU have placed themselves in. Gas for heating in Germany accounts for a little over half of consumption, electrical power generation, both for homes and industry, also eats up a substantial portion. So Germany (and by extension the EU) is bound by Maslow and economics.


Did GBs North Sea gas run dry? "Hey, EU, nice houses you got there, looks a bit chilly though. Shame, really."


----------



## The Bread Guy

Retired AF Guy said:


> Taking place along the Donblass region between Ukrainian forces and Russian backed separatist forces. Being going on for what - the last eight years?


Zackly - although the kindergarten shelling is gaining more traction today.


Retired AF Guy said:


> Pretext for Russian Invasion?


Depends who you ask:  UKR says it was the rebels, pro-RUS sites say "yeah, but was it _reeeeeeeeeally_ the separatists?", and UK's BOJO says it was a false flag.

Meanwhile, UKR MoD says civvies are being pulled out of forward areas in the occupied zone (Google translation), while it looks like the RUS embassy in Kyiv is a bit ... smokier than usual ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

OceanBonfire said:


> From UK's Ministry of Defence:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1494315294382297091


C'mon, Putin & Co. says it takes time to send troops home, ya know ...


----------



## FJAG

An interesting read from RUSI: The Plot to Destroy Ukraine by Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds



> https://static.rusi.org/special-report-202202-ukraine-web.pdf



🍻


----------



## KevinB

More on the cross border shelling etc.








						Russian-backed separatists to evacuate civilians from eastern Ukraine, stoking invasion fears — NBC News
					

The move comes amid a spike in shelling in the area, with tensions rising once again after the West disputed Moscow’s claims of a troop pullback.




					apple.news


----------



## Czech_pivo

A few comments from the Bulgarian PM on the current situation in Ukraine and on Russian nat gas.

Bulgaria’s prime minister, Kiril Petkov, despite its dependence on Russian gas, Bulgaria would support the sanctions if Ukraine was invaded."


> "We are the most dependent of the EU nations [on] Russian gas. Sometimes we are 100% dependent, which is staggering."
Click to expand...

Talk about someone/country that has boxed themselves into a corner.  The Bulgarians are no friends of the Turks, so any pipelines coming across their land border with them or under the Black Sea from Turkey are not possible.  

They are trying to finalise a new pipeline with Greece but its been repeatedly delayed. 

Also, adding to my earlier comments about the Poles and their having 'capital' with the US and being by far the most reliable (from a NATO perspective, don't ask me my opinion on the current gov't and their internal policies), this was just announced today:


"The US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, has announced the *planned sale of 250 Abrams tanks to Poland*,"
This is the _*most modern version of the Abrams*_, and will provide Poland with a highly advanced tank capability. It will also strengthen our interoperability with the Polish armed forces, boosting the credibility of our combined deterrence efforts and those of our other Nato allies.
Once these 250 tanks are delivered and integrated, Uncle Vlad will have a tough nut to crack.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> .... Once these 250 tanks are delivered and integrated, Uncle Vlad will have a tough nut to crack.


Check FlightTracker re:  how quickly this hardware can get there 

Meanwhile, this from one of the separatist rebel leaders (PDF of Google translation attached)


> "...  President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky will soon give an order to the military to go on the offensive, to implement a plan to invade the territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics ... *from today, February 18, a mass centralized departure of the population to the Russian Federation has been organized.  First of all, women, children and the elderly are subject to evacuation*.  We kindly ask you to listen and make the right decision. Temporary departure will save the life and health of you and your loved ones.  *By agreement with the leadership of the Russian Federation, places for the reception and accommodation of our citizens are ready in the Rostov Region. The evacuees will be provided with everything necessary. All conditions have been created for a quick transition at checkpoints.*  The heads of enterprises and institutions need to organize the departure of the families of employees. Headquarters of territorial defense - to provide transport for the evacuation of civilians ..."


Same same with the other bit of occupied Ukraine (PDF of sep-rebel article in English also attached)

OP edit to add - more from RUS independent media here
🍿


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Check FlightTracker re:  how quickly this hardware can get there
> 
> Meanwhile, this from one of the separatist rebel leaders (PDF of Google translation attached)
> 
> Same same with the other bit of occupied Ukraine (PDF of sep-rebel article in English also attached)
> 
> OP edit to add - more from RUS independent media here
> 🍿


These people know (at least those with the ability to think independently) that if they leave their homes that they will be looted by the Russian militia's in those areas.  It was done previously and it will occur again.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> These people know (at least those with the ability to think independently) that if they leave their homes that they will be looted by the Russian militia's in those areas.  It was done previously and it will occur again.


... with the Ukrainians being blamed, too, to add to the info-fight stew?

Meanwhile, my fave Putin parody Twitter feed sums the checklist up well

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1494592130391683085


----------



## Rifleman62

The UK troops deploying in response to Russia's military build-up - Feb 17, 2022​





































​


----------



## Czech_pivo

Rifleman62 said:


> The UK troops deploying in response to Russia's military build-up - Feb 17, 2022​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ​


I know others said that we would most likely not re-deploy our trainers from the Ukraine over to Latvia but since our cupboard is basically bare I'm still willing to say that this is being considered, if not for the questionable value they would add but for the PR optics of Canada standing tall and saying, 'We too are bolstering our troops presence and commitment to Latvia.'


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Germans seem to have forgotten what they allowed to occur for the Croats back in the mid-90's.

They definitely helped blow the lid off the simmering Yugo Civil when they pushed hard for Croatia to be recognized as Independent.

HOW WEST LET CROATIA SNEAK ARMS​"the beefing up of Croatia's fighting forces was _facilitated by the country's financial sponsors abroad, mainly Germany_ and rich Croatians in exile, and an apparently tacit agreement among NATO nations to allow $1.3 billion of weapons to be smuggled into the country."

_"German police inspectors have complained that tanks hidden under tarps and destined for Croatia were ferried up the Rhine River. They could do nothing about it, they said, because of bureaucratic restrictions."

"International arms dealers......siphoned off the bulk of the weaponry the Russians preferred to sell rather than take home as they withdrew from the former East Germany."_









						HOW WEST LET CROATIA SNEAK ARMS
					






					www.chicagotribune.com


----------



## Quirky

Czech_pivo said:


> I know others said that we would most likely not re-deploy our trainers from the Ukraine over to Latvia but since our cupboard is basically bare I'm still willing to say that this is being considered, if not for the questionable value they would add but for the PR optics of Canada standing tall and saying, 'We too are bolstering our troops presence and commitment to Latvia.'



Whatever commitment Canada provides from here on in would just be an annoyance to the real militaries. We would just get in the way.


----------



## KevinB

Quirky said:


> Whatever commitment Canada provides from here on in would just be an annoyance to the real militaries. We would just get in the way.


While not large, and poorly equipped, Canada does have a professional military.    The CAF could form (and has formed) the backbone of MultiNational Brigades that don't have as experienced HQ team.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Quirky said:


> Whatever commitment Canada provides from here on in would just be an annoyance to the real militaries. We would just get in the way.


I agree with you but Team Trudeau really does need some positive PR news right now, something to help deflect his ongoing internal troubles.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> The Germans seem to have forgotten what they allowed to occur for the Croats back in the mid-90's.
> 
> They definitely helped blow the lid off the simmering Yugo Civil when they pushed hard for Croatia to be recognized as Independent.
> 
> HOW WEST LET CROATIA SNEAK ARMS​"the beefing up of Croatia's fighting forces was _facilitated by the country's financial sponsors abroad, mainly Germany_ and rich Croatians in exile, and an apparently tacit agreement among NATO nations to allow $1.3 billion of weapons to be smuggled into the country."
> 
> _"German police inspectors have complained that tanks hidden under tarps and destined for Croatia were ferried up the Rhine River. They could do nothing about it, they said, because of bureaucratic restrictions."
> 
> "International arms dealers......siphoned off the bulk of the weaponry the Russians preferred to sell rather than take home as they withdrew from the former East Germany."_
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> HOW WEST LET CROATIA SNEAK ARMS
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.chicagotribune.com


Not that the U.S. was above such shenanigans w/Croatia in those days.  

Funny the difference in Germany's approaches to Croatia and Ukraine, given their ... similar history in both places.  I guess Germany was getting its gas from elsewhere in the 90's.


----------



## TacticalTea

Czech_pivo said:


> A few comments from the Bulgarian PM on the current situation in Ukraine and on Russian nat gas.
> 
> Bulgaria’s prime minister, Kiril Petkov, despite its dependence on Russian gas, Bulgaria would support the sanctions if Ukraine was invaded."
> 
> Talk about someone/country that has boxed themselves into a corner.  The Bulgarians are no friends of the Turks, so any pipelines coming across their land border with them or under the Black Sea from Turkey are not possible.
> 
> They are trying to finalise a new pipeline with Greece but its been repeatedly delayed.
> 
> Also, adding to my earlier comments about the Poles and their having 'capital' with the US and being by far the most reliable (from a NATO perspective, don't ask me my opinion on the current gov't and their internal policies), this was just announced today:
> 
> 
> "The US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, has announced the *planned sale of 250 Abrams tanks to Poland*,"
> This is the _*most modern version of the Abrams*_, and will provide Poland with a highly advanced tank capability. It will also strengthen our interoperability with the Polish armed forces, boosting the credibility of our combined deterrence efforts and those of our other Nato allies.
> Once these 250 tanks are delivered and integrated, Uncle Vlad will have a tough nut to crack.


All this talk of tanks and tanks and tanks...
Doesn't mean much without air superiority and strong Anti-Air Defense.

Frankly, I do not know how well Ukraine and Russia would hold up in that regard, but I'm just concerned about the lack of news regarding the air battlespace.


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Not that the U.S. was above such shenanigans w/Croatia in those days.
> 
> Funny the difference in Germany's approaches to Croatia and Ukraine, given their ... similar history in both places.  I guess Germany was getting its gas from elsewhere in the 90's.


Nuclear Power...


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Nuclear Power...


Pre-heavy-Green days - good point.


Czech_pivo said:


> These people know (at least those with the ability to think independently) that if they leave their homes that they will be looted by the Russian militia's in those areas.  It was done previously and it will occur again.


Another point here:  once they're in Russia, would they be considered guests, evacuees or hostages?

Meanwhile, on the evacuation, Moscow's having a tough time sorting its narrative out, it appears ...

_*"Russia has no information about Donbas residents evacuation,- Kremlin spokesperson"*_
*"Putin Orders Aid to Russia's Rostov Region Amid Influx of Refugees From Donbass"*(archive link to RUS state media article)
_*"DPR* emergencies ministry plans to evacuate 700,000 people to Russia"*  (archive link to RUS state media article)_
** *- Reminder that that's just one of the two self-proclaimed statelets in occupied UKR


TacticalTea said:


> All this talk of tanks and tanks and tanks...
> Doesn't mean much without* air superiority and strong Anti-Air Defense*.


True, but does Ukraine have enough of that?


----------



## TacticalTea

The Bread Guy said:


> True, but does Ukraine have enough of that?


My point exactly.

It's clear that Ukraine can't win an air battle - now or at any time in the foreseeable future -, but if they could at least ground Russian air assets, that would give them some freedom of movement on the ground.

And it's not just planes, helos, and drones they have to worry about, but also short and medium range missiles. They need every possible tool to shield themselves from the skyborne threat. (We can think of assets akin to PATRIOTs, Iron Dome - which Israel, frustratingly, has blocked -, etc)


----------



## KevinB

TacticalTea said:


> My point exactly.
> 
> It's clear that Ukraine can't win an air battle - now or at any time in the foreseeable future -, but if they could at least ground Russian air assets, that would give them some freedom of movement on the ground.
> 
> And it's not just planes, helos, and drones they have to worry about, but also short and medium range missiles. They need every possible tool to shield themselves from the skyborne threat. (We can think of assets akin to PATRIOTs, Iron Dome - which Israel, frustratingly, has blocked -, etc)


I don't think you have to worry about the Ukrainian AirDefense right now.
  I have a strong premonition they have cutting edge air defense systems and likely the most dense coverage in the world right now...


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> I don't think you have to worry about the Ukrainian AirDefense right now.
> I have a strong premonition they have cutting edge air defense systems and likely the most dense coverage in the world right now...


That's possible, and I would love it to be true, but I haven't seen evidence of that.
Do you know of any good reports on their current capabilities in that area?


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> I don't think you have to worry about the Ukrainian AirDefense right now.
> I have a strong premonition they have cutting edge air defense systems and likely the most dense coverage in the world right now...


Let's hope so, because RUS complained pretty early on about not wanting to see THAAD anti-missile defence there. 🤞


----------



## KevinB

TacticalTea said:


> That's possible, and I would love it to be true, but I haven't seen evidence of that.
> Do you know of any good reports on their current capabilities in that area?


One just needed to watch where the C-17's where departing from to know what capabilities where being brought over...
 I'll leave it at that.


The Bread Guy said:


> Let's hope so, because RUS complained pretty early on about not wanting to see THAAD anti-missile defence there. 🤞


I think the Russian complaint sparked some shipping interest...   My guess is THAAD will be about 10m inside the Ukrainian border - just close enough to dragged into Poland if need be.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> One just needed to watch where the C-17's where departing from to know what capabilities where being brought over...
> I'll leave it at that.
> 
> I think the Russian complaint sparked some shipping interest...   My guess is THAAD will be about 10m inside the Ukrainian border - just close enough to dragged into Poland if need be.


You mean like Huntsville?

If a THAAD(s) were placed just inside the Ukkie border with Poland, its 1,000km from Lviv to Kharkov......that's alot farther than the listed stats on the THAAD's on wikipedia....


----------



## armrdsoul77

Russia-Backed Separatists In Eastern Ukraine Tell Civilians To Evacuate To Russia


----------



## KevinB

Ukraine, UK, Poland announce security pact amid heightened tensions
					

The tie-up is meant to deepen Ukraine’s relationships with the two European nations in matters of cyber security, energy security and countering disinformation, said the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.




					www.defensenews.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

A few tidbits ...

UKR gov't telling those in occupied areas to go there, not Russia
Latest UKR estimate of RUS tps in the 'hood:  190K
Putin & Co.:  Looks like your occupied areas are falling apart, UKR (while preparing to shell out a few shekels to incoming evacuees)***
Reports of separatist rebels mobilizing 17-year-olds
*** - Average RUS pension:  US$212/month; average UKR pension:  ~US$106/month; evacuee payment:  $US130


----------



## Lancaster

The Bread Guy said:


> A few tidbits ...
> 
> UKR gov't telling those in occupied areas to go there, not Russia
> Latest UKR estimate of RUS tps in the 'hood:  190K
> Putin & Co.:  Looks like your occupied areas are falling apart, UKR (while preparing to shell out a few shekels to incoming evacuees)***
> Reports of separatist rebels mobilizing 17-year-olds
> *** - Average RUS pension:  US$212/month; average UKR pension:  ~US$106/month; evacuee payment:  $US130


 I am sorry bad news from the U. S. President Biden on (mad man) Putin
decision to invade Ukraine.









						Video President Biden addresses the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine
					

Biden: “Russian troops currently have Ukraine surrounded.”




					abcnews.go.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Lancaster said:


> I am sorry bad news from the U. S. President Biden on (mad man) Putin
> decision to invade Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Video President Biden addresses the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine
> 
> 
> Biden: “Russian troops currently have Ukraine surrounded.”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> abcnews.go.com


Similar from his foreign minister ...








						Blinken: shelling of Ukraine in last 48 hours is part of Russian scenario, aimed at creating false provocations to start aggression
					

The shelling of Ukraine, recorded over the past 48 hours, is part of the Russian scenario, which is already in operation and is aimed at creating false provocations to start Russia's aggression against Ukraine, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said.




					en.interfax.com.ua
				




Meanwhile, slick, well-lit briefings between Fearless Donbas Breakaway Leader & his defence minister and emergencies minister (YouTube, in Russian) here and here.

And an assessment from the Institute for the Study of War





						Institute for the Study of War
					

Russia may launch an attack on Ukraine on Saturday, February 19, 2022. The attack would likely begin with an air and missile campaign targeting much of Ukraine to decapitate the government and degrade the Ukrainian military as well as the ability of




					www.understandingwar.org


----------



## MilEME09

Lancaster said:


> I am sorry bad news from the U. S. President Biden on (mad man) Putin
> decision to invade Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Video President Biden addresses the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine
> 
> 
> Biden: “Russian troops currently have Ukraine surrounded.”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> abcnews.go.com


Russia has added almost 90k troops to the borders since Jan 30th, plus thousands of Belarusian troops, in all Ukraine is probably out numbered 2 to 1. In a traditional situation I would say the defenders have the advantage but Ukraine can't fight a 3 or 4 front war very long. 

Their best hope would be the neutralize the Black sea fleet, and Crimea so forces can shift east and north.


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> Russia has added almost 90k troops to the borders since Jan 30th, plus thousands of Belarusian troops, in all Ukraine is probably out numbered 2 to 1. In a traditional situation I would say the defenders have the advantage but Ukraine can't fight a 3 or 4 front war very long.
> 
> Their best hope would be the neutralize the Black sea fleet, and Crimea so forces can shift east and north.


The Dnieper south of Kiev to Dnipro is such a barrier, very wide and with few bridges that it can easily be a place to try and pin a large bulk of Ukrainian troops up against and force their surrender by their having no way out. 

Ukraine is really Poland September 1, 1939. Surrounded on three sides by Germany.


----------



## FJAG

Czech_pivo said:


> The Dnieper south of Kiev to Dnipro is such a barrier, very wide and with few bridges that it can easily be a place to try and pin a large bulk of Ukrainian troops up against and force their surrender by their having no way out.
> 
> Ukraine is really Poland September 1, 1939. Surrounded on three sides by Germany.


And on one side by the USSR who invaded Poland 16 days later.

🍻


----------



## Czech_pivo

FJAG said:


> And on one side by the USSR who invaded Poland 16 days later.
> 
> 🍻


Yes 17 September.
There’s a good book written by a Polish Canadian who was 16 when the war started. His cadet unit in eastern Poland (now Ukraine) was called up but the Soviets came into this town before anything happened to him. He tired escaping a few months later across the border into Romania but was caught by the Soviets and sentenced to prison in the Soviet Union. The book goes on to talk his time in the Soviet Union and then finally being allowed to join Anders forming his army in Palestine. The book ended when he boarded a ship across the Caspian to Iran. There was to be a second book but I think the poor fellow died before he could finish his story. 
The book is called Without Vodka.


----------



## The Bread Guy

For those who worried about PMJT not being invited to a meeting earlier this year about Ukraine, here you go ...








						Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks with President of the United States of America Joe Biden and European leaders on Russia and the situation in Ukraine
					

Today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke with the President of the United States of America, Joe Biden, and the leaders of the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, the European Commission, the European Council, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), to discuss...




					pm.gc.ca
				




Meanwhile ....








						Ukraine's Zelenskyy calls on Putin to meet as tensions soar
					

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, facing a sharp spike in violence in and around territory held by Russia-backed rebels and increasingly dire warnings that Russia plans to invade, on Saturday called for Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet him and seek resolution to the crisis.




					www.ctvnews.ca
				



... and this from RUS state media








						Shell explodes in Russia 1 km from border with Ukraine - source
					

Local residents reported the incident to law enforcement agencies, the source said




					web.archive.org


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some interesting info on separatist rebel media on how the Ukrainians plan to allegedly "clean" up the occupied territories in 5 days - Google English translations attached.  Here's the map the sep-rebels are sharing


----------



## Good2Golf

The Bread Guy said:


> For those who worried about PMJT not being invited to a meeting earlier this year about Ukraine, here you go ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks with President of the United States of America Joe Biden and European leaders on Russia and the situation in Ukraine
> 
> 
> Today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke with the President of the United States of America, Joe Biden, and the leaders of the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, the European Commission, the European Council, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), to discuss...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> pm.gc.ca



If that’s the pithiest word bite PMO could extract from the meeting’s minutes as an example of the PM’s and Canada’s deep inclusion in the affair…well then…

🤦🏻 




The Bread Guy said:


> ... and this from RUS state media
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Shell explodes in Russia 1 km from border with Ukraine - source
> 
> 
> Local residents reported the incident to law enforcement agencies, the source said
> 
> 
> 
> 
> web.archive.org



Looks like a DPR GPO got the gun line 180° out…


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> If that’s the pithiest word bite PMO could extract from the meeting’s minutes as an example of the PM’s and Canada’s deep inclusion in the affair…well then…
> View attachment 68792
> 🤦🏻


Yeah, "pithy" is the word, alright ....


Good2Golf said:


> Looks like a DPR GPO got the gun line 180° out…


Oopsie - nice family he has - shame if anything every happened to it ...

Meanwhile, about that rebel leader's "we gotta get outta this place" video?








						Videos By Russia-Backed Separatists In Eastern Ukraine Calling For 'Emergency' Evacuation Were Filmed Two Days Earlier
					

Videos of Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine ordering an “emergency” evacuation posted on February 18 were actually filmed on February 16, an analysis by RFE/RL’s Russian Service of metadata from the messaging app Telegram shows.




					www.rferl.org
				



Here's the video on YouTube in case you want to watch it


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> Looks like a DPR GPO got the gun line 180° out…


You could be righter than I thought, given this area is right next to occupied Ukraine (bit highlighted in yellow) -- someone's going to get "evacuated" (to use another Victor Suvorov GRU book term), alright (source) ....


----------



## Colin Parkinson

I bet JT is praying for an invasion of Ukraine right about now.


----------



## Kat Stevens

Colin Parkinson said:


> I bet JT is praying for an invasion of Ukraine right about now.


But, in line with the current thinking here in the forums, we don't live in Ukraine and are therefore not entitled to an opinion.


----------



## The Bread Guy

More on that reported shelling from Russia's Investigative Committee looking into it  - full statements attached (official English versions), but here's some photos they included ....


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> More on that reported shelling from Russia's Investigative Committee looking into it  - full statements attached (official English versions), but here's some photos they included ....
> View attachment 68817
> View attachment 68819


Any SMEs got a suggestion as to type and calibre?


----------



## Good2Golf

Kirkhill said:


> Any SMEs got a suggestion as to type and calibre?


Looks like a Russian MPL-50.


----------



## The Bread Guy

The Bread Guy said:


> More on that reported shelling from Russia's Investigative Committee looking into it  ...


More photos captured from RUS state media sources ....


----------



## Good2Golf

‘Captured’? 😆.   Awesome ‘crater analysis’ TT&Ps…”Step 1. Stand in center of crater.  Step 2. Wave metal detector around to look active.  3. Pretend that the 122mm ‘Grad’ rocket casing, which miraculously survived explosion of its 18kg warhead, wasn’t out there after the hole was dug late at night…”


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> ‘Captured’? 😆 ...


That's the technical term I've seen used for imagery collected via screen capture (vs downloaded) - don't want to be downloading the jpgs directly from RUS servers, right?


----------



## Good2Golf

The Bread Guy said:


> That's the technical term I've seen used for imagery collected via screen capture (vs downloaded) - don't want to be downloading the jpgs directly from RUS servers, right?


Ah….I figured they (RUS) were handing out ‘not-pre-made’ 😉 press release packages, hence wouldnt have thought of the terms ‘captured/acquired/etc.’


----------



## Kat Stevens

Good2Golf said:


> Ah….I figured they (RUS) were handing out ‘not-pre-made’ 😉 press release packages, hence wouldnt have thought of the terms ‘captured/acquired/etc.’


The official Canadian term is “grab”.  Y’know, screengrab, powergrab, all recognized terms.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> Ah….I figured they (RUS) were handing out ‘not-pre-made’ 😉 press release packages, hence wouldnt have thought of the terms ‘captured/acquired/etc.’


Well, as much as I enjoy finding stuff out online, my resources are limited for "stealing" such stuff if it wasn't public, given my "guy in the basement in his gym shorts & t-shirt" set up


----------



## MilEME09

Ukraine: What are Russia's possible attack routes?
					

Western governments think Russian troops could go much further than east Ukraine.



					www.bbc.com
				




Break down by the BBC of the possible axis of advance


----------



## PPCLI Guy

Kat Stevens said:


> The official Canadian term is “grab”.  Y’know, screengrab, powergrab, all recognized terms.


Journalist ass grab, young student grab, free vacation grab, money grab...

Sorry.  I thought we were talking about the Groper in Chief PM.


----------



## Kat Stevens

PPCLI Guy said:


> Journalist ass grab, young student grab, free vacation grab, money grab...
> 
> Sorry.  I thought we were talking about talking about the Groper in Chief PM.


I like the cut of your jib, mister.


----------



## The Bread Guy

A "thank you" from UKR's defence minister for a little something from Canada

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1495113341622181888This bit from the UKR MoD info-machine

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1495128191605919751


----------



## The Bread Guy

So, which is more likely? 

_*"Zelensky: Ukraine may reconsider its nuclear status"*_
*"CSTO says it could send peacekeepers to Donbass with Ukraine’s goodwill and UN mandate"*


----------



## Good2Golf

The Bread Guy said:


> *"CSTO says it could send peacekeepers to Donbass with Ukraine’s goodwill and UN mandate"*


As in, “re-task Wagner Group little green men with powder blue berets?” 😉


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> So, which is more likely?
> 
> _*"Zelensky: Ukraine may reconsider its nuclear status"*_
> *"CSTO says it could send peacekeepers to Donbass with Ukraine’s goodwill and UN mandate"*


If Ukraine renuclearized, I wonder how long it would take to have viable weapons?


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> A "thank you" from UKR's defence minister for a little something from Canada
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1495113341622181888This bit from the UKR MoD info-machine
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1495128191605919751


So what happened to the Carl G’s and the 60mm mortars?


----------



## YZT580

The Bread Guy said:


> More on that reported shelling from Russia's Investigative Committee looking into it  - full statements attached (official English versions), but here's some photos they included ....
> View attachment 68817
> View attachment 68819


just saying: if you were firing off the first shot in a war would you reveal your weapon's location by firing that very first round into a dirt road miles from anywhere?


----------



## MilEME09

YZT580 said:


> just saying: if you were firing off the first shot in a war would you reveal your weapon's location by firing that very first round into a dirt road miles from anywhere?


Doesn't matter much when your army is mechanized and can shoot and scoot in 5 minutes?


----------



## The Bread Guy

YZT580 said:


> just saying: if you were firing off the first shot in a war would you reveal your weapon's location by firing that very first round into a dirt road miles from anywhere?


Not to mention the area in question is next to _occupied_ Ukraine - like G2G said upthread, quite an aiming error on the part of the rebels ....

Meanwhile, what a difference a few days make ...

16 Feb:  *"Belarus Says 'Not a Single' Russian Soldier Will Stay After Joint Drills"*_*_
20 Feb: *"Russian Forces to Stay in Belarus as Ukraine Braced for War"*
*** - although technically, a lot of soldiers is "not a single" soldier, right?


----------



## Altair

How pissed must the average russian service member be right now?

On ex since bloody december. In russia.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Altair said:


> How pissed must the average russian service member be right now?
> 
> On ex since bloody december. In russia.


"Could always be worse, brother - you could be here in Belarus ..."

Meanwhile, tick, tick, tick?








						The Olympics Closing Ceremony Was A Massive Spectacle, & Fans Loved It
					

Olympic fans took to Twitter with their thoughts on the 2022 closing ceremony, which was full of huge spectacles and performances.




					www.elitedaily.com


----------



## Lancaster

The Bread Guy said:


> "Could always be worse, brother - you could be here in Belarus ..."
> 
> Meanwhile, tick, tick, tick?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Olympics Closing Ceremony Was A Massive Spectacle, & Fans Loved It
> 
> 
> Olympic fans took to Twitter with their thoughts on the 2022 closing ceremony, which was full of huge spectacles and performances.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.elitedaily.com


See Munich Security Conference boosts transatlantic
 ties for Germany in a crisis. See videos 'Ukrainian
 president appeals for 'real support, not just words'
and video "Ukraine has been serving as a shield
for eight years now". Ukraine  getting support from U.S. and
U.K.  and Canada, but very little  from Germany and a  veto
to NATO membership .








						Munich meeting boosts trans-Atlantic ties for Germany – DW – 02/20/2022
					

The timing of the Munich Security Conference gave Germany a chance to underline its commitment to trans-Atlantic alliances. But the Ukrainian president warned that old international security structures are under threat.




					www.dw.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Lancaster said:


> See Munich Security Conference boosts transatlantic
> ties for Germany in a crisis. See videos 'Ukrainian
> president appeals for 'real support, not just words'
> and video "Ukraine has been serving as a shield
> for eight years now". Ukraine  getting support from U.S. and
> U.K.  and Canada, but very little  from Germany and a  veto
> to NATO membership .
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Munich meeting boosts trans-Atlantic ties for Germany – DW – 02/20/2022
> 
> 
> The timing of the Munich Security Conference gave Germany a chance to underline its commitment to trans-Atlantic alliances. But the Ukrainian president warned that old international security structures are under threat.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.dw.com


... not to mention Hungary not keen on Ukraine coming into NATO ....


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> Any SMEs got a suggestion as to type and calibre?


Pretty hard to do the way the pictures are taken - usually the shape will give away if it is a shell or mortar bomb by the blast pattern.
 Mortars tend to blast backwards and artillery forward - same with rockets - 
  It is hard to tell if there is more material pushed up towards the center of the roadway the way the picture is taken.
Other aspect is the second picture has what looks like some sort of chemical or mineral that didn't combust in the detonation - not being familiar with the geology of the area - I don't know if it's native and was upset by the blast - or a component that didn't detonate when the main charge went.

It is also hard to tell if that is part of the rocket body beside the crater - and if so, it would seem it dint fully burn all it's fuel.

Honestly it looks more like someone set a cratering charge on the road and dragged the rocket body over later based on the pictures alone -- however that could be I naturally assume anything the Russians do is a scam.


----------



## AmmoTech90

Good2Golf said:


> ‘Captured’? 😆.   Awesome ‘crater analysis’ TT&Ps…”Step 1. Stand in center of crater.  Step 2. Wave metal detector around to look active.  3. Pretend that the 122mm ‘Grad’ rocket casing, which miraculously survived explosion of its 18kg warhead, wasn’t out there after the hole was dug late at night…”


Some theatre there and the crater might be dug, but in my experience it is quite possible to find the rocket motor in or near the crater.  The picture at night does seem to have the right shape and some side spray, but the side spray is very narrow.


----------



## Kilted

The Bread Guy said:


> "Could always be worse, brother - you could be here in Belarus ..."
> 
> Meanwhile, tick, tick, tick?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Olympics Closing Ceremony Was A Massive Spectacle, & Fans Loved It
> 
> 
> Olympic fans took to Twitter with their thoughts on the 2022 closing ceremony, which was full of huge spectacles and performances.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.elitedaily.com


So the Ides of March has come?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kilted said:


> So the Ides of March has come?


Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe - these guys are guessing 21 Feb .....


----------



## Altair

The Bread Guy said:


> Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe - these guys are guessing 21 Feb .....


I'm guessing Xi told Vlad not to overshadow his games.


----------



## suffolkowner

I'm still not sure what Putin can hope to achieve here. Even 200,000 troops does not seem near enough as an occupying force to me. Maybe Ukraine will capitulate quickly, however it sure seems like the US and Uk at least have set them up for a continued insurgency. As an observer from afar it will be interesting to see 

how the heavy formations will manage to manouver across the ground conditions
whether the Russians will manage to get more than one sortie a day out of an aircraft unlike Syria
How quickly the Russians will run out of precision munitions and whether they'll be willing to face the colateral losses of their Ukrainian brothers
Will Ukraine be able to mount any sort of air defence and keep it up against a clearly superior opponent
What role will drones play in this conflict

Whatever happens I'm sure CAF's leadership and the current government will be quick to adapt any lessons


----------



## Czech_pivo

suffolkowner said:


> I'm still not sure what Putin can hope to achieve here. Even 200,000 troops does not seem near enough as an occupying force to me. Maybe Ukraine will capitulate quickly, however it sure seems like the US and Uk at least have set them up for a continued insurgency. As an observer from afar it will be interesting to see
> 
> how the heavy formations will manage to manouver across the ground conditions
> whether the Russians will manage to get more than one sortie a day out of an aircraft unlike Syria
> How quickly the Russians will run out of precision munitions and whether they'll be willing to face the colateral losses of their Ukrainian brothers
> Will Ukraine be able to mount any sort of air defence and keep it up against a clearly superior opponent
> What role will drones play in this conflict
> 
> Whatever happens I'm sure CAF's leadership and the current government will be quick to adapt any lessons


The 10 day weather forecast for Kyiv ranges from 4 to 11c for the highs, Kharkiv is 3 to 1Oc for the highs. It’s going to be a muddy mess for anyone trying to move armour anywhere. 
As a result, Putin may have to pivot on the plans and try to sit back to pound from a distance before moving in the armour to mop up. Rasputitsa may have come already.


----------



## Altair

suffolkowner said:


> I'm still not sure what Putin can hope to achieve here. Even 200,000 troops does not seem near enough as an occupying force to me. Maybe Ukraine will capitulate quickly, however it sure seems like the US and Uk at least have set them up for a continued insurgency. As an observer from afar it will be interesting to see
> 
> how the heavy formations will manage to manouver across the ground conditions
> whether the Russians will manage to get more than one sortie a day out of an aircraft unlike Syria
> How quickly the Russians will run out of precision munitions and whether they'll be willing to face the colateral losses of their Ukrainian brothers
> Will Ukraine be able to mount any sort of air defence and keep it up against a clearly superior opponent
> What role will drones play in this conflict
> 
> Whatever happens I'm sure CAF's leadership and the current government will be quick to adapt any lessons


Putin isn't dumb. He isn't going to occupy Ukraine. He's going to invade it, set up a government more appealing to him and Russia, and leave.

Any insurgency will be Ukrainians killing Ukrainians, with Russian air support, which probably suits him just fine.

The only dumb nations who have tried to occupy nations in the last 30 years have been in the west.


----------



## OldSolduer

Have the Russians attacked yet?


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> Putin isn't dumb. He isn't going to occupy Ukraine. He's going to invade it, set up a government more appealing to him and Russia, and leave.
> 
> Any insurgency will be Ukrainians killing Ukrainians, with Russian air support, which probably suits him just fine.
> 
> The only dumb nations who have tried to occupy nations in the last 30 years have been in the west.


I just hope they make the Russians bled so much that some Oligarchs decide it’s time for Vladdy to take a dirt nap.


----------



## MilEME09

OldSolduer said:


> Have the Russians attacked yet?











						Russia-Ukraine updates: US to ban Russian carriers from its airspace
					

Live updates on the Russia-Ukraine crisis.




					abcnews.go.com


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> I just hope they make the Russians bled so much that some Oligarchs decide it’s time for Vladdy to take a dirt nap.


Why would oligarchs care if some plebs die in a field in Ukraine? 

Honestly, sanctions would piss off the oligarchs more but Russia has been weathering sanctions for 3 years short of a decade now and Vlad is still going strong. Especially with that growing economic partnership with China. 

I think the only way Vlad losses power is if he finds a way to lose militarily in Ukraine.


----------



## MilEME09

February 20 Ukraine-Russia news
					

Tensions between Moscow and Kyiv are at their highest in years, with a large Russian troop buildup near the shared borders of the two former Soviet republics. Follow here for the latest news updates.




					www.cnn.com
				




As of 48 mim ago, OSINT satellite images are showing most Russian forces on the border leaving their camps and heading to positions in the fields. Either part of their drills or taking up start line positions














						U.S. says Russia closer to invading Ukraine, agrees to meeting
					

Russia on Sunday rescinded earlier pledges to pull tens of thousands of its troops back from Ukraine's northern border, a move that U.S. leaders said put Russia another step closer to what they said was the planned invasion of Ukraine. Residents of Ukraine's capital filled a gold-domed cathedral...




					www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## FJAG

A recent view from Germany:



> Tensions Remain Acute on Ukrainian Border with Russia: The German Chancellor (Finally) Enters the Fray
> 
> 
> For weeks, it had looked as though Germany was more a hindrance than a help in the ongoing crisis on Ukraine's eastern border. But Chancellor Olaf Scholz has since taken a more active role in confronting the Russian threat. Will it be enough?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.spiegel.de



🍻


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> February 20 Ukraine-Russia news
> 
> 
> Tensions between Moscow and Kyiv are at their highest in years, with a large Russian troop buildup near the shared borders of the two former Soviet republics. Follow here for the latest news updates.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As of 48 mim ago, OSINT satellite images are showing most Russian forces on the border leaving their camps and heading to positions in the fields. Either part of their drills or taking up start line positions
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> U.S. says Russia closer to invading Ukraine, agrees to meeting
> 
> 
> Russia on Sunday rescinded earlier pledges to pull tens of thousands of its troops back from Ukraine's northern border, a move that U.S. leaders said put Russia another step closer to what they said was the planned invasion of Ukraine. Residents of Ukraine's capital filled a gold-domed cathedral...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca


Biden is stalling for spring.

It's smart.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Ya know it's serious when the rebel gov't info machine start running these banners on the page ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

RUS state media's alleging 2 x UKR AFV's of some sort were destroyed while in RUS territory in the Southern Military District - Pravda & TASS text in English attached.

RUS border svc/FSB also alleges shelling from UKR territory destroyed a Rostov-area border post as well








						Russia's FSB says shell from Ukrainian territory destroys Russian border guard post
					

Russia's FSB security service said on Monday a shell fired from Ukrainian territory had completely destroyed a border guard post in Russia's Rostov region but caused no casualties.




					www.reuters.com
				




🍿


----------



## SeaKingTacco

The Bread Guy said:


> RUS state media's alleging 2 x UKR AFV's of some sort were destroyed while in RUS territory in the Southern Military District - Pravda & TASS text in English attached.
> 
> RUS border svc/FSB also alleges shelling from UKR territory destroyed a Rostov-area border post as well
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia's FSB says shell from Ukrainian territory destroys Russian border guard post
> 
> 
> Russia's FSB security service said on Monday a shell fired from Ukrainian territory had completely destroyed a border guard post in Russia's Rostov region but caused no casualties.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 🍿


The Russians really don’t like to get that far off of a script, do they?


----------



## The Bread Guy

SeaKingTacco said:


> The Russians really don’t like to get that far off of a script, do they?


Why mess with success?  Saves the editors of all the amplifier sites a ton of time editing - just cut/paste.

Same song sheet from RIA Novosti (attached)


----------



## Good2Golf

Well if there was ever justification for amassing 1/10 Million soldiers on a border and declaring war, it’s the destruction of a guard hut by Wagner Group operatives and Separatist friends in the Donbas UKR forces… 👍🏼


----------



## MilEME09

Good2Golf said:


> Well if there was ever justification for amassing 1/10 Million soldiers on a border and declaring war, it’s the destruction of a guard hut by Wagner Group operatives and Separatist friends in the Donbas UKR forces… 👍🏼


I'm sorry I just woke up, did I time travel to August 31st 1939 or is it still 2022?


----------



## Good2Golf

You’d wonder, right?


----------



## Kirkhill




----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> I'm sorry I just woke up, did I time travel to August 31st 1939 or is it still 2022?


That was a radio station, not a border post  but close enough, as they say, for government work.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Good2Golf said:


> Well if there was ever justification for amassing 1/10 Million soldiers on a border and declaring war, it’s the destruction of a guard hut by Wagner Group operatives and Separatist friends in the Donbas UKR forces… 👍🏼


Well they've certainly made themselves comfortable in Africa 😆







Interestingly I was reading that the Malian public and Central African public strongly support Wagner.  In contrast with the French, who they absolutely despise it seems.









						Russia quietly gains military influence in growing number of African countries
					

From Libya to Central African Republic, mercenaries acting as Kremlin surrogates are active, and have been accused of committing atrocities as they fill power vacuum




					www.theglobeandmail.com


----------



## MilEME09

Blinken: Russian pretext to invade Ukraine could involve chemical weapons
					

Secy. of State Antony Blinken spoke at the United Nations Security Council meeting and warned that Russia plans to "manufacture a pretext" to launch an attack and invade Ukraine. The secretary urged diplomatic efforts to continue to avoid conflict.




					www.nbcnews.com
				





Warning of chemical weapons attacks.....lovely


----------



## Kilted

Putin is supposed to make an address soon.  Not sure what soon means i. This context, but I believe that it is already pretty late over there.









						February 21, 2022 Ukraine-Russia news
					

Tensions between Moscow and Kyiv are at their highest in years, with a large Russian troop buildup near the shared borders of the two former Soviet republics. Follow here for the latest news updates.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## MilEME09

Kilted said:


> Putin is supposed to make an address soon.  Not sure what soon means i. This context, but I believe that it is already pretty late over there.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> February 21, 2022 Ukraine-Russia news
> 
> 
> Tensions between Moscow and Kyiv are at their highest in years, with a large Russian troop buildup near the shared borders of the two former Soviet republics. Follow here for the latest news updates.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com


It's either going to be deal reached or this speech will contain the go word.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> Blinken: Russian pretext to invade Ukraine could involve chemical weapons
> 
> 
> Secy. of State Antony Blinken spoke at the United Nations Security Council meeting and warned that Russia plans to "manufacture a pretext" to launch an attack and invade Ukraine. The secretary urged diplomatic efforts to continue to avoid conflict.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nbcnews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Warning of chemical weapons attacks.....lovely


Funny how the other side (as well as some pro-UKR OSINT folks) was warning about the same thing a few days ago ....


----------



## Kilted

He is apparently speaking now.


----------



## MilEME09

Kilted said:


> He is apparently speaking now.






.sounds like he is making a case for war to me


----------



## OceanBonfire

MilEME09 said:


> It's either going to be deal reached or this speech will contain the go word.











						Putin orders troops to Ukraine after recognizing breakaway regions
					

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the deployment of troops to two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine after recognising them as independent on Monday, accelerating a crisis the West fears could unleash a major war.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> .sounds like he is making a case for war to me


Yeah, it's war.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> .sounds like he is making a case for war to me


Habemus two new Russian-recognized statelets as of this post - with "mutual aid" pacts for all!

🍿


----------



## Altair

The Bread Guy said:


> Habemus two new Russian-recognized statelets as of this post - with "mutual aid" pacts for all!
> 
> 🍿


Attack on one is an attack on all of Russia and its allies most likely. 

I guess that attack is happening shortly, as per the Russian time table.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Altair said:


> Attack on one is an attack on all of Russia and its allies most likely.
> 
> I guess that attack is happening shortly, as per the Russian time table.


Transdnistria East, here we come ...


----------



## Altair

The Bread Guy said:


> Transdnistria East, here we come ...


I think militants from Ukraine are about to destroy an oil production refinery in Nizhnevartovsk...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Altair said:


> ... I guess that attack is happening shortly, as per the Russian time table.


Well, there's also the possibility that RUS'll overtly occupy the statelets - both rebel leaders have been clear about restoring ties to RUS and how they'd welcome RUS help if sent.


----------



## RangerRay

Anne Applebaum says that while there have been no Chamberlains, there have been no Churchills either.









						There Are No Chamberlains in This Story
					

But there are no Churchills, either. And Ukraine will fight alone.




					www.theatlantic.com


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> Well, there's also the possibility that RUS'll overtly occupy the statelets - both rebel leaders have been clear about restoring ties to RUS and how they'd welcome RUS help if sent.


They did it with Georgia, now cause it's all the west knows how to do, sanctions will come against Russia, which will do nothing in the short term.


----------



## RangerRay

I heard last weekend on the radio Christian Lueprecht, who is a professor at Queens and RMC specializing in national security, thinks the invasion will happen with a “little green men” operation conducting an Astro-turf revolution, overthrowing the Ukrainian regime, then inviting the Russians in to “stabilize “ the country.


----------



## The Bread Guy

RangerRay said:


> I heard last weekend on the radio Christian Lueprecht, who is a professor at Queens and RMC specializing in national security, thinks the invasion will happen with a “little green men” operation conducting an Astro-turf revolution, overthrowing the Ukrainian regime, then inviting the Russians in to “stabilize “ the country.


A number of analysts have said that.  Another variation of that would be to start with the new statelets inviting Mother Russia in to overtly stabilize things, what with all the attacks UKR's MoD say aren't happening. 

With no UKR tps in the statelets, this would be a safer option than facing a real scrap in UKR, revived militias, insurgency & all.

I've been wrong before, though.


----------



## KevinB

RangerRay said:


> I heard last weekend on the radio Christian Lueprecht, who is a professor at Queens and RMC specializing in national security, thinks the invasion will happen with a “little green men” operation conducting an Astro-turf revolution, overthrowing the Ukrainian regime, then inviting the Russians in to “stabilize “ the country.


I suspect that we (the USA) may have some assets in country to ensure that doesn't occur...


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> I suspect that we (the USA) may have some assets in country to ensure that doesn't occur...


And one also hopes everyone learned about the "polite green men" from the last round.


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> And one also hopes everyone learned about the "polite green men" from the last round.


Yeah they go in the dumpster, and no one can ask questions about them...


----------



## Retired AF Guy

RangerRay said:


> I heard last weekend on the radio Christian Lueprecht, who is a professor at Queens and RMC specializing in national security, thinks the invasion will happen with a “little green men” operation conducting an Astro-turf revolution, overthrowing the Ukrainian regime, then inviting the Russians in to “stabilize “ the country.


For that to happen the Russians would have to have a large force hidden away some where in Kyiv waiting for the word to go.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Retired AF Guy said:


> For that to happen the Russians would have to have a large force hidden away some where in Kyiv waiting for the word to go.


When you put it that way, I wouldn't be at all surprised if there's more than a few Russian "tourists on leave) in the occupied areas who just have to ... end their vacation leave and put their regular patches back on.


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> When you put it that way, I wouldn't be at all surprised if there's more than a few Russian "tourists on leave) in the occupied areas who just have to ... end their vacation leave and put their regular patches back on.


Don't forget all the equipment that will get "lost" and magically end up in the hands of Separatists in Donesk


----------



## Retired AF Guy

So it begins. The War Zone is reporting that Russian troops are moving into the Breakaway Republics as Peace Keepers:









						Russia Orders Troops Into Ukraine (Updated)
					

Russia's move to overtly deploy troops into Ukraine's Donbas region is the latest worrisome development in the crisis between the two countries.




					www.thedrive.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Retired AF Guy said:


> So it begins. The War Zone is reporting that Russian troops are moving into Ukraine:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia Orders Troops Into Ukraine (Updated)
> 
> 
> Russia's move to overtly deploy troops into Ukraine's Donbas region is the latest worrisome development in the crisis between the two countries.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedrive.com


But they're "*peacekeepers*", though - and asked in by the hosts ...








						Putin Orders Russian Military to Act as 'Peacekeepers' in Ukraine Regions - The Moscow Times
					

President Vladimir Putin on Monday ordered Russia's military to act as peacekeepers in two breakaway regions of Ukraine, just hours after he recognized them as independent.




					www.themoscowtimes.com


----------



## Retired AF Guy

The Bread Guy said:


> But they're "*peacekeepers*", though - and asked in by the hosts ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Putin Orders Russian Military to Act as 'Peacekeepers' in Ukraine Regions - The Moscow Times
> 
> 
> President Vladimir Putin on Monday ordered Russia's military to act as peacekeepers in two breakaway regions of Ukraine, just hours after he recognized them as independent.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.themoscowtimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 68897


I've edited my post to reflect that, sorry for the mistake..


----------



## The Bread Guy

Retired AF Guy said:


> I've edited my post to reflect that, sorry for the mistake..


NP - some media outlets reported just that.

Meanwhile, part of the deal signed by Putin & Co. apparently includes terms allowing RUS to build all kindsa military infrastructure in Transdnistria East - Google translation of rebel media piece attached, as well as the decree in question (in Russian)


----------



## suffolkowner

Maybe the Ukrainian side should via the Minsk agreements

"Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on minimum 50 kilometres (31 mi) apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70 kilometres (43 mi) for multiple rocket launchers (MRLS) and 140 kilometres (87 mi) for MLRS Tornado-S, Uragan, Smerch, and Tochka U tactical missile systems:"

just so there's no confusion, not that reality has any bearing on what Putin is going to do


----------



## MilEME09

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/putin-russian-security-council-eastern-ukraine-1.6359253
		


It's okay everyone, PMJT has strongly condemned Russia, that will make them think twice..


----------



## The Bread Guy

From RUS state media's "Russia's never attacked anyone first" files, this ....


> ... "Now grateful descendants have demolished monuments to Lenin in Ukraine. This is what they call de-communization. Do you want de-communization? Well, this quite suits us. But you must not stop halfway. We are ready to show you what genuine de-communization means for Ukraine," Putin said in his address to the nation over the situation in Ukraine’s southeast ...


----------



## OldSolduer

MilEME09 said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/putin-russian-security-council-eastern-ukraine-1.6359253
> 
> 
> 
> It's okay everyone, PMJT has strongly condemned Russia, that will make them think twice..


Let me guess - a strongly worded letter....?


----------



## MilEME09

Latest Ukraine updates: Biden announces new Russia sanctions
					

Latest Ukraine crisis updates from February 22: Blinken cancels upcoming meeting with Russia’s Lavrov as tensions mount.




					www.aljazeera.com
				




Condemnation pretty unanimously from the African community for Russia's move


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/putin-russian-security-council-eastern-ukraine-1.6359253
> 
> 
> 
> It's okay everyone, PMJT has strongly condemned Russia, that will make them think twice..


Here's what Team Blue wants (via a news release from Hon. Kerry-Lynne Findlay, Conservative Shadow Minister for National Defence, and Hon. Michael Chong, Conservative Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs - attached):


> ... Conservatives support the imposition of tough new economic sanctions against Russian officials. These sanctions must be severe and proportional to reflect the seriousness of the threats Russia’s acts have to peace, freedom and democracy in Europe.  “The government must also take steps, in concert with our allies, to freeze any and all assets in Canada that are controlled by Putin and his inner circle ...


Nothing I've seen from Team Orange just yet.

Meanwhile, in case it wasn't clear yesterday, this from RUS state media (archive link to article) 


> Russia’s treaty with the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR) stipulates granting the right to build military bases on their territory and provide mutual military assistance, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko*** told a plenary session of the lower house of parliament on Tuesday.
> 
> "An important aspect: the treaty stipulates the intentions by the parties to interact in the field of foreign policy, the protection of sovereignty and territorial integrity and security provision, in particular, by way of rendering each other required assistance, including military aid, and granting the right to build, use and improve military infrastructure and military bases on their territory," the high-ranking Russian diplomat pointed out ...


** *- This would be the guy appointed as a sort of Russian government special envoy to keep the whole Transdnistria East enterprise going according to one of the declarations signed along with the "we see you as new countries" paperwork* - see attached in Russian.*


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> Latest Ukraine updates: Biden announces new Russia sanctions
> 
> 
> Latest Ukraine crisis updates from February 22: Blinken cancels upcoming meeting with Russia’s Lavrov as tensions mount.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.aljazeera.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Condemnation pretty unanimously from the African community for Russia's move


I'm guessing that's one of the results of all that soft power shared by China -- #BoughtAndPaidForByChina


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> I'm guessing that's one of the results of all that soft power shared by China -- #BoughtAndPaidForByChina


Piss enough people off though and a UNSC veto  an be over turned by a 2/3 majority.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> Piss enough people off though and a UNSC veto  an be over turned by a 2/3 majority.


It WOULD be interesting to see if that many could be swayed to knock down a veto.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> Piss enough people off though and a UNSC veto  an be over turned by a 2/3 majority.


A veto by a permanent member cannot be overturned.  The issue can be discussed still but the Security Council cannot Adopt a proposal vetoed by a permament member. 

See:  Article 27 UN Charter

Russia and China aligned should be a serious concern for the West and in particular, US Hegemony.  Sanctions against Russia are basically pointless at this point and will have very little effect due to the World Economy pivoting to Asia.

Interesting tidbit here from the recent gas deal signed between China and Russia:









						Russia, China agree 30-year gas deal via new pipeline, to settle in euros
					

Russia has agreed a 30-year contract to supply gas to China via a new pipeline and will settle the new gas sales in euros, bolstering an energy alliance with Beijing amid Moscow's strained ties with the West over Ukraine and other issues.




					www.reuters.com
				




Note the deal is to be settled in *Euro's *as opposed to US Dollars 

Europe needs Russian Energy as much if not more than China does, these facts are indisputable.  The Europeans are as addicted to Bread and Circus as we are in Canada and Russia knows this and they know that their population is unwilling to suffer a substantial decline in QoL and Rise in Costs that would be a consequence of looking elsewhere.  The European Union is about as threatening as a mouse 

Russia has been making moves towards this end for some time now:









						Russia’s Economic Pivot to Asia in a Shifting Regional Environment
					

This Emerging Insights paper analyses Moscow's ambitions for its 'pivot to the East', assesses its progress and evaluates the impact of the Indo-Pacific concept on Russian strategy.




					rusi.org
				




It seems that the Autocracies of the World have figured out a way to use Globalization (long thought of as a net benefit to the West) against us.  If it wasn't apparent before, it is now:

Great Power Competition is back in a big way.


----------



## KevinB

So all in favor of adding the Ukraine to NATO say AYE -- that's the correct move to tell Putin to GFHS


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

US:  "We will kick you out of the Swift Banking System"

Russia:  "That's ok, we've been working with our reliable partners to mitigate that risk"









						Russia And China To Develop SWIFT Avoiding International Financial Systems - Russia Briefing News
					

By Chris Devonshire-Ellis  Distrust of the United States is leading to the eventual rise of alternative global payment systems Russia and China have agreed to develop shared financial structures to deepen economic ties in a way that will not be affected by pressure of third countries. The move...



					www.russia-briefing.com
				






KevinB said:


> So all in favor of adding the Ukraine to NATO say AYE -- that's the correct move to tell Putin to GFHS



Take away the emotion for a minute and you start to realize just how impotent and inconsequential our actual options are unless we make some RADICAL changes to the status quo.


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Take away the emotion for a minute and you start to realize just how impotent and inconsequential our actual options are unless we make some RADICAL changes to the status quo.


Yup, plus you know he's not going to stop here.
   So either we roll over and ask him to use Lube, or we go to the QM and sign out a spine.


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> A veto by a permanent member cannot be overturned.  The issue can be discussed still but the Security Council cannot Adopt a proposal vetoed by a permament member.
> 
> See:  Article 27 UN Charter


Refer to resolution A/RES/377 A,  the UNSC cannot over rule the will of the UNGA. If a 2/3 majority of the UNGA vote on something, the UNSC cannot over rule as the UNGA is the primary body of the UN.

That is what I am referring to, the UNGA can over rule the UNSC.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> Refer to resolution A/RES/377 A,  the UNSC cannot over rule the will of the UNGA. If a 2/3 majority of the UNGA vote on something, the UNSC cannot over rule as the UNGA is the primary body of the UN.
> 
> That is what I am referring to, the UNGA can over rule the UNSC.


Have you taken a look at the Belt & Road Initiative + All the Russian Mercs ousting the French in Africa?  Those votes are bought and paid for mon ami 



KevinB said:


> Yup, plus you know he's not going to stop here.
> So either we roll over and ask him to use Lube, or we go to the QM and sign out a spine.



Every Country in the West except for the US, UK and a few others have forgotten that hard power actually matters.  It's sunny ways all round


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

The UN hasn't been relevant in about 30 years #changemymind


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> The UN hasn't been relevant in about 30 years #changemymind


40...


----------



## Kirkhill

I guess it qualifies as a minor incursion.









						How Big of a Mistake Did Biden Just Make on Ukraine?
					

The president seemed to imply that Putin could get a pass for a “minor incursion.” Oops?




					slate.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> The UN hasn't been relevant in about 30 years #changemymind



Last relevant act


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:


> I guess it qualifies as a minor incursion.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How Big of a Mistake Did Biden Just Make on Ukraine?
> 
> 
> The president seemed to imply that Putin could get a pass for a “minor incursion.” Oops?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> slate.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

Germany's not sending guns to the Ukraine IIRC, but they're bolstering Lithuania....


Germany sends PzH 2000 155mm self-propelled howitzers to Lithuania​According to Archynewsy, in order to strengthen the potential of the German-led international NATO battalion stationed in Lithuania, six Panzerhaubitze *PzH 2000* self-propelled howitzers are being sent to Lithuania, the German Ministry of Defense announced on Friday, February 11.

According to Minister Kristīne Lambrehte, howitzers in Münster have been loaded onto heavy tank transport trucks to be delivered to Lithuania. It has already been reported that as the region escalates, Germany has decided to send another 350 troops to Lithuania. It is planned to deploy an additional one hundred military vehicles in Lithuania.

Germany is leading a NATO-led battlegroup in Lithuania with more than 1,000 troops, one of four missions NATO sent to the Baltic states and Poland in 2017 in response to Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula. About 500 German soldiers are currently stationed in Lithuania. The Bundeswehr National Territorial Commander, Lt. Gen. Martin Schelleis, has taken over the command of the German reinforcements for the deployment to the NATO Enhanced Forward Presence in Lithuania. The Bundeswehr is increasing its contingent on NATO's eastern flank by around 350 soldiers and around 100 vehicles.

The Panzerhaubitze 2000 ("armoured howitzer 2000"), abbreviated *PzH 2000*, is a 155 mm self-propelled howitzer developed by Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW) and Rheinmetall for the German Army. In burst mode, it can fire three rounds in nine seconds, ten rounds in 56 seconds, and can—depending on barrel heating—fire between 10 and 13 rounds per minute continuously. The PzH 2000 has automatic support for up to 5 rounds of Multiple Rounds Simultaneous Impact (MRSI). The replenishment of shells is automated. Two operators can load 60 shells and propelling charges in less than 12 minutes. PzH 2000 has also been selected by the armies of Italy, Netherlands, Greece, Lithuania, Hungary, Qatar and Croatia, mostly replacing older systems like the M109 self-propelled howitzers.






						Germany sends PzH 2000 155mm self-propelled howitzers to Lithuania | Defense News February 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year
					

Germany sends six PzH 2000 155mm self-propelled howitzers to Lithuania




					www.armyrecognition.com


----------



## KevinB

Biden says Russia is beginning an 'invasion of Ukraine' as he unveils sanctions on Moscow
					

President Joe Biden described events now underway in Ukraine as "the beginning of a Russian invasion" as he unveiled tough new sanctions to punish Moscow on Tuesday.




					www.cnn.com
				












						Germany halts Nord Stream 2 and Russia responds with a stark warning
					

The West showed Tuesday it was ready to target Russia's huge energy industry — even at the risk of hurting itself — after Moscow ordered troops into parts of eastern Ukraine.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## MilEME09

Canadian press conference currently underway, sanctions plus 400 more personal for Op Reassurance, including another frigate, and a MPA.


----------



## GK .Dundas

The press conference just ended the MND also stated an artillery battery if I understood her attempt to mangle the English language to point of unintelligibility. It would be an ad hoc unit drawn from various bases.
I could be guessing here the whole conference seemed to be an exercise in vague 101.


----------



## Kirkhill

Any clarification as whether the 460 number includes the crew of the frigate and the MPA personnel?  Or are they separate and all 460 are destined for the ground force in Latvia? The EPF?


----------



## GK .Dundas

Kirkhill said:


> Any clarification as whether the 460 number includes the crew of the frigate and the MPA personnel?  Or are they separate and all 460 are destined for the ground force in Latvia? The EPF?


Includes both frigate and MPA.


----------



## Kirkhill

So not much reinforcement for the ground element.  Although the Arty battery is going to be welcome.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> Canadian press conference currently underway, sanctions plus 400 more personal for Op Reassurance, including another frigate, and a MPA.


A bit of info from The Canadian Press ...


> ... Trudeau said up to 460 more members of the Canadian Armed Forces are being sent to Latvia and the surrounding region to bolster NATO in response to what he described as a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
> 
> The new troops are being deployed alongside an additional naval frigate and Aurora surveillance aircraft, and are on top of the 540 Armed Forces members already deployed to Latvia where they are leading a NATO battlegroup ...


No details yet from the GoC info-machine.

Meanwhile, the arsonists warn people about matches ...








						DPR warns about danger of civil aircraft flights over Ukraine
					

Donetsk, Feb 22 - DAN. The Donetsk People’s Republic People’s Militia intelligence has spotted positions of Ukrainian army missile systems in areas




					dan-news.info


----------



## Good2Golf

The Bread Guy said:


> Meanwhile, the arsonists warn people about matches ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> DPR warns about danger of civil aircraft flights over Ukraine
> 
> 
> Donetsk, Feb 22 - DAN. The Donetsk People’s Republic People’s Militia intelligence has spotted positions of Ukrainian army missile systems in areas
> 
> 
> 
> 
> dan-news.info


Yup.

Said those who shot down MH17…


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> So not much reinforcement for the ground element.  Although the Arty battery is going to be welcome.


You mean returning the battery we had originally?


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> You mean returning the battery we had originally?


Learn something new every day.  We had a battery in support?


----------



## Fabius

Apparently so. Maybe this time we will declare it to NATO and plan for it to fight vs support training. 
I think we were already planning on sending it back after the Slovakian Arty leaves.


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> Learn something new every day.  We had a battery in support?


We had 777s in Latvia for a few years  they were quietly pulled out though, think that was around 2017 or 18


----------



## Fabius

I believe it was a battery deployed initially in 2017  and maintained until 2020, might be wrong on that last date. 
Technically the gunners never deployed as part of the official rotations but were TAVs into theatre.


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> We had 777s in Latvia for a few years  they were quietly pulled out though, think that was around 2017 or 18



Thanks for that.


----------



## KevinB

So is this a real battery of 6-8 guns or the CAF Lite Battery of 2-4?


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> So is this a real battery of 6-8 guns or the CAF Lite Battery of 2-4?


Canadian Forces Lite, same great Forces, half the budget


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> So is this a real battery of 6-8 guns or the CAF Lite Battery of 2-4?


I’m reading news reports of 100 troops for the artillery unit. So how many guns does that work out to be?


----------



## Eye In The Sky

MilEME09 said:


> Canadian press conference currently underway, sanctions plus 400 more personal for Op Reassurance, including another frigate, and a MPA.



Re: the MPA part:

"...a CP-140 Aurora long-range patrol aircraft will be deployed to the 'Euro-Atlantic area under NATO command' from Iceland where it is currently operating..."


----------



## Fabius

So rearranging and reannouncing three underway or planned activities with only minor tweaks equals robust commitment to NATO . 


This seems aimed at the domestic audience which doesn’t know better rather than either our Allies or the Russians.


----------



## brihard

Humphrey Bogart said:


> US:  "We will kick you out of the Swift Banking System"
> 
> Russia:  "That's ok, we've been working with our reliable partners to mitigate that risk"
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia And China To Develop SWIFT Avoiding International Financial Systems - Russia Briefing News
> 
> 
> By Chris Devonshire-Ellis  Distrust of the United States is leading to the eventual rise of alternative global payment systems Russia and China have agreed to develop shared financial structures to deepen economic ties in a way that will not be affected by pressure of third countries. The move...
> 
> 
> 
> www.russia-briefing.com


 
I remember speaking to this a few weeks ago…



brihard said:


> So, what the US could do would be selectively or broadly cut off Russian access to $USD correspondent banking. This would be devastating in the short term... But would also screw allies who buy necessary commodities form or sell them to Russia. Narrower, more targeted sanctions would be more likely. Rather than cutting off German imports of Russian gas through wholesale excision of Russia from $USD banking, they could go after individuals in the Putin regime, and businesses near and dear to them. Make it hurt for the political leadership.
> 
> Obviously the risk is that if the US overplays its hand, Russia, probably with China, moves to start commodity trade relationships in another currency. While there are major barriers to this, the juice could end up being worth the squeeze. I could see Russia trading commodities with Europe in Euro. Yen could be another sufficiently capitalized and stable currency for commodities trading. I'm sure China would love to push the Yuan for such a purpose. So the US needs to be careful that it doesn't play into China's long term hand.
> 
> There are layers and layers and layers to sanctions matters when you're dealing with a major foreign power with a lot of bilateral trade relationships. Sanctions can be extremely surgical, or extremely blunt. Blunt may work for the DPRK... Probably not so much for Russia, other than _maybe_ as a short, sharp shock.


----------



## FJAG

Czech_pivo said:


> I’m reading news reports of 100 troops for the artillery unit. So how many guns does that work out to be?


Rough numbers would indicate you could do a full tactical group (BC and FOOs) and two x two-gun troops and a very small echelon with 100 folks. A detachment is 10 which would mean 20 extra folks if its just one extra gun per troop and a bit over 30 if its a full two-gun troop.

The question I don't have an answer to is whether we already have a tactical group with the battlegroup or whether the FSCC and observers currently come from the Slovak unit. That would make a difference. My guess is we're sending a Tac Gp and two x two-gun troops.

🍻


----------



## KevinB

More US Deployment/redeployment








						US attack helos, F-35s and infantry heading to Baltics amid Ukraine invasion
					

The announcement came after President Joe Biden detailed new economic sanctions on Russia in reaction to Vladimir Putin’s moving new military forces into separatist-held parts of Ukraine.




					www.militarytimes.com
				






			https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/23/us-military-pentagon-ukraine-russia/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EBB%2002.23.2022
		


Pop Sci Article on EW in the Ukraine Theatre 








						How electronic warfare could factor into the Russia-Ukraine crisis
					

Russia might use electronic warfare as a tool against Ukraine if it invades. Here's what to know about this type of military technology.




					www.popsci.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

FJAG said:


> Rough numbers would indicate you could do a full tactical group (BC and FOOs) and two x two-gun troops and a very small echelon with 100 folks. A detachment is 10 which would mean 20 extra folks if its just one extra gun per troop and a bit over 30 if its a full two-gun troop.
> 
> The question I don't have an answer to is whether we already have a tactical group with the battlegroup or whether the FSCC and observers currently come from the Slovak unit. That would make a difference. My guess is we're sending a Tac Gp and two x two-gun troops.
> 
> 🍻


I’ve found some previous articles that talk about us having 4 M777’s in Latvia in the past and that the guns were left there and put into storage while the 100 troops were rotated back home. If the guns are still in Latvia, it’s a quick flight over for these 100 troops and they’ve good to go.
As for the sending over of another Frigate, not sure what it’s role will be when HMCS Montreal is not In the Black Sea still since all OP Reassurance ships were pulled from there. 
Still trying to understand the breakdown of the 460 troops - 100 troops for the artillery battery, roughly 240 for the Frigate and a single CP Aurora detachment comes in under 400.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Still trying to understand the breakdown of the 460 troops - 100 troops for the artillery battery, roughly 240 for the Frigate and a single CP Aurora detachment comes in under 400.


Inflation, I would assume some LNO's with that and some additional staff for the BG HQ


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Just pulling a number out the air without knowing for certain, but a typical LRP ATF with a single aircraft - about 40 people (air crew, maint, small ATF Comd org and Mission Support folks.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Not promising if entirely true ...








						Russia starts evacuation of all diplomatic missions in Ukraine
					

Earlier, Russia announced the evacuation of the embassy in Ukraine




					112.international


----------



## The Bread Guy

More help coming to the Baltics ....


> Washington announced it will deploy additional military troops and aircraft to several Baltic in response to Russian plans to send military personnel into eastern Ukraine to ‘maintain peace'.
> 
> “I will authorie the additional movements of US forces and equipment already stationed in Europe to strengthen our Baltic allies Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania. Let me be clear, these are totally defensive moves on our part. We have no intention of fighting Russia,” US President Joe Biden said during a 22 February televised statement. “We want to send an unmistakable message that the United States, together with our allies, will defend every inch of NATO territory.”
> 
> A senior Pentagon official said that in the “coming days” a variety of ground forces and aviation elements will move from other spots inside the US European Command area of operations to NATO's northeastern and southeastern flanks. These forces include an infantry battalion task force of approximately 800 personnel from Italy to the Baltic region, a battalion of 20 AH-64 Apache helicopters from Germany to several operating locations along NATO's eastern flank, up to eight F-35 Joint Strike Fighter aircraft from Germany to the Baltic region, and 12 AH-64 helicopters moving from Greece to Poland.
> 
> “These additional personnel are being repositioned to reassure our NATO allies, deter any potential aggression against NATO member states, and train with host-nation forces,” the senior US defence official wrote in the 22 February statement. “These moves are temporary in nature and are part of the more than 90,000 US troops already in Europe on rotational and permanent orders.”
> 
> In addition to the troop movements, Biden announced that the US would impose additional sanctions on two Russian financial institutionsVEB and Russia's military bank.


----------



## OceanBonfire

MilEME09 said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/putin-russian-security-council-eastern-ukraine-1.6359253
> 
> 
> 
> It's okay everyone, PMJT has strongly condemned Russia, that will make them think twice..





MilEME09 said:


> Latest Ukraine updates: Biden announces new Russia sanctions
> 
> 
> Latest Ukraine crisis updates from February 22: Blinken cancels upcoming meeting with Russia’s Lavrov as tensions mount.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.aljazeera.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Condemnation pretty unanimously from the African community for Russia's move



Meanwhile:









						Trump praises Putin as 'savvy' amid new escalations on Russia-Ukraine border
					

The former president lauded the Russian strongman for his recent declarations on Ukraine, while criticizing U.S. President Biden as "man that has no concept of what he's doing."




					www.npr.org


----------



## Quirky

OceanBonfire said:


> Meanwhile:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Trump praises Putin as 'savvy' amid new escalations on Russia-Ukraine border
> 
> 
> The former president lauded the Russian strongman for his recent declarations on Ukraine, while criticizing U.S. President Biden as "man that has no concept of what he's doing."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.npr.org



Trump isn't wrong there.


----------



## MilEME09

Russia vacates embassy in Ukraine as tensions escalate - National | Globalnews.ca
					

Already, the threat of war has shredded Ukraine's economy and raised the specter of massive casualties, energy shortages across Europe and global economic chaos.




					globalnews.ca
				




Russia has evacuated their embassy, nothing really to stop them now


----------



## The Bread Guy

On the periphery, but related, someone FINALLY gets it ....





						Estonian Greens: Europe must stop buying energy from Russia
					

TALLINN - According to the Estonian Greens, Europe must stop buying energy from Russia, because, through buying Russian energy, European nations...




					www.baltictimes.com


----------



## MilEME09

Russia Stages Phony "Ukrainian Invasion Of Russia" Video
					

Russia has been exposed faking yet another staged video, this time showing a bogus invasion by Ukrainian troops into Russia.




					funker530.com
				




The so called excursion Russia fended off confirmed as a false flag attempt after the vehicle used was identified as one only in service with Russia.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Russia Stages Phony "Ukrainian Invasion Of Russia" Video
> 
> 
> Russia has been exposed faking yet another staged video, this time showing a bogus invasion by Ukrainian troops into Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> funker530.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The so called excursion Russia fended off confirmed as a false flag attempt after the vehicle used was identified as one only in service with Russia.


When you cheap out on the scam and use your own car...


----------



## MilEME09

Ukraine crisis puts East Coast LNG back on the map
					

As Europe’s gas woes mount, at least two companies are exploring LNG options on Canada’s East Coast




					financialpost.com
				




Oh so finally  people are thinking strategically....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kremlin Says Ukraine Rebels Have Asked Russia for 'Help' Against Kyiv - The Moscow Times
					

The Kremlin on Wednesday said the heads of east Ukraine's rebel republics have asked Russian President Vladimir Putin for "help" to "repel aggression" from the Ukrainian army.  Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the separatist republics "ask the president of Russia for help in repelling the...




					www.themoscowtimes.com


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Putin's tanks roll into Ukraine over Belarus border amid full invasion
					

Russian forces have seized control of the Chernobyl power plant, 60 miles north of Kiev, with the condition of nuclear storage facilities 'unknown', officials in Kiev have said.




					www.dailymail.co.uk


----------



## NotSoWiseKingSolomon

For what's it worth https://mobile.twitter.com/OSINT_Ukraine


----------



## Czech_pivo

NotSoWiseKingSolomon said:


> For what's it worth https://mobile.twitter.com/OSINT_Ukraine
> View attachment 68937


From CNN

BREAKING: Putin announces a special military operation to protect Donbas​From CNN's Nathan Hodge in Moscow

Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced a special military operation to protect Donbas, the pro-Moscow separatist-held region in eastern Ukraine.


----------



## NotSoWiseKingSolomon

NotSoWiseKingSolomon said:


> For what's it worth https://mobile.twitter.com/OSINT_Ukraine
> View attachment 68937


----------



## Jarnhamar

KevinB said:


> When you cheap out on the scam and use your own car...



Needs more grey wolves.


----------



## Czech_pivo

I think things just kicked off.

CNN team reports explosions near Ukrainian capital​The CNN team on the ground is hearing several loud explosions near Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> I think things just kicked off.


CNN correspondence reporting shelling in Kharkov.

War is on


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Putin's tanks roll into Ukraine over Belarus border amid full invasion
					

Russian forces have seized control of the Chernobyl power plant, 60 miles north of Kiev, with the condition of nuclear storage facilities 'unknown', officials in Kiev have said.




					www.dailymail.co.uk


----------



## Czech_pivo

Man, I don’t know what to think. 
I believe that we should be standing with the Ukrainians, it will be judged a mistake in the end that we didn’t.


----------



## The Bread Guy

This from RUS state media (highlights mine)


> Russian President Vladimir Putin announced in a Thursday morning address that Russian forces have no plans to occupy Ukraine. However, Russia will defend itself if it is the only option presented, the president noted.  *Moscow has directed Russian forces to conduct a special operation in the Donbas region, according to February 24 remarks from Russian President Vladimir Putin.*  Putin remarked that the NATO-allied war machine supporting 'Neo-Nazis' in Ukraine is moving and closely approaching Russia's borders ...


As always, keep in mind breaking news caveats ...


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Putin says he 'wants to “demilitarise and de-Nazify” Ukraine'​More from Putin’s address:

The Russian president says he wants to *“demilitarise and de-Nazify”* Ukraine Putin has also *called on Ukrainian soldiers to put down their weapons* and go home, according to Reuters, citing the Russian news agency Tass.
The Russian president adds that *“in case of foreign interference, Russia will act immediately”*.
Responsibility for bloodshed will be on the hands of the “Ukrainian regime”
Russia’s response “will be instant if anyone tries to take it on”
He tells Ukrainians that “your fathers and grandfathers did not fight so you could help ‘neo-Nazis’”









						Markets shaken after Putin announces special military operation – as it happened
					

Explosions heard after Putin announces operation to ‘demilitarise’ Ukraine. Follow the latest news and updates




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## MilEME09

Eye In The Sky said:


> Putin says he 'wants to “demilitarise and de-Nazify” Ukraine'​More from Putin’s address:
> 
> The Russian president says he wants to *“demilitarise and de-Nazify”* Ukraine Putin has also *called on Ukrainian soldiers to put down their weapons* and go home, according to Reuters, citing the Russian news agency Tass.
> The Russian president adds that *“in case of foreign interference, Russia will act immediately”*.
> Responsibility for bloodshed will be on the hands of the “Ukrainian regime”
> Russia’s response “will be instant if anyone tries to take it on”
> He tells Ukrainians that “your fathers and grandfathers did not fight so you could help ‘neo-Nazis’”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Markets shaken after Putin announces special military operation – as it happened
> 
> 
> Explosions heard after Putin announces operation to ‘demilitarise’ Ukraine. Follow the latest news and updates
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com


So destroy them militarily, and remove the government...now what will the west do, if they want to save Ukraine, they better act fast


----------



## The Bread Guy

Eye In The Sky said:


> *Putin says he 'wants to “demilitarise and de-Nazify” Ukraine' ...*


Same thing from TASS (links to archived version -- Google translation from Russian)


> "... I decided to conduct a special military operation. Its goal is to protect people who have been subjected to abuse, genocide by the Kiev regime for eight years, and for To this end, we will strive for the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, as well as bringing to justice those who committed numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including citizens of the Russian Federation ..."


More from the same piece


> Russia will not allow Ukraine to have nuclear weapons, Putin added. The plans of the Russian Federation do not include the occupation of Ukrainian territories, he said.





> All responsibility for possible bloodshed will be entirely on the conscience of the Ukrainian regime, Putin believes.  As the President of the Russian Federation noted, in case of interference in the situation in Ukraine from the outside, Russia will respond immediately ... Putin is confident that the Russian servicemen will professionally and courageously fulfill their duty.  Putin urged Ukrainian servicemen to immediately lay down their arms and go home ...


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> So destroy them militarily, and remove the government...now what will the west do, if they want to save Ukraine, they better act fast


Unless they try and hold the western portion it’s too late.


----------



## MilEME09

First statement from the white house, was Essentially thoughts and prayers...we left Ukraine put to dry.


----------



## PuckChaser

MilEME09 said:


> First statement from the white house, was Essentially thoughts and prayers...we left Ukraine put to dry.


What else do you expect? Putin read weak woke leftists like a book. He knows the US will just change their Facebook profile pictures to a Ukrainian flag and do nothing else.


----------



## MilEME09

PuckChaser said:


> What else do you expect? Putin read weak woke leftists like a book. He knows the US will just change their Facebook profile pictures to a Ukrainian flag and do nothing else.


Pretty much,

Ukrainian interior ministry confirmed to CNN the invasion has begun, and Missile strikes are hitting near Kyivs airport


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> First statement from the white house, was Essentially thoughts and prayers...we left Ukraine put to dry.


Yup ....


> The prayers of the entire world are with the people of Ukraine tonight as they suffer an unprovoked and unjustified attack by Russian military forces. President Putin has chosen a premeditated war that will bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering. Russia alone is responsible for the death and destruction this attack will bring, and the United States and its Allies and partners will respond in a united and decisive way. The world will hold Russia accountable.
> 
> I will be monitoring the situation from the White House this evening and will continue to get regular updates from my national security team. Tomorrow, I will meet with my G7 counterparts in the morning and then speak to the American people to announce the further consequences the United States and our Allies and partners will impose on Russia for this needless act of aggression against Ukraine and global peace and security. We will also coordinate with our NATO Allies to ensure a strong, united response that deters any aggression against the Alliance. Tonight, Jill and I are praying for the brave and proud people of Ukraine.


----------



## daftandbarmy

UN Security Council debate, live:


----------



## Eye In The Sky

POTUS statement in summary:







I have equal faith in the UN...


----------



## Brad Sallows

As far as the words go, pretty much everyone knows Putin is full of sh!t.


----------



## Czech_pivo

If the initial reports are correct, the Russian look to be going for broke - troops landing in Odessa, crossing from Crimea heading north, through the border near Kharkov.


----------



## Brad Sallows

So another data point is lining up for the "Do aggressors usually, on net, lose?" debate.


----------



## MilEME09

daftandbarmy said:


> UN Security Council debate, live:


The Ukrainian ambassador taking a CBS reporter to task over Russia calling it a "special operation " was pure gold, it spoke of a man tired of BS.


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> If the initial reports are correct, the Russian look to be going for broke - troops landing in Odessa, crossing from Crimea heading north, through the border near Kharkov.


But nothing yet from the Belarus border. What's chilling though is Putin treating anyone from interference, almost threatening the west that any action against them would be met with force.


----------



## Kirkhill

The Mobile Crematorium - spare the cost of body bags, coffins and flags.  Highly cost effective.









						Russia deploys mobile crematoriums to follow its troops into battle
					

Ben Wallace, the Defence Secretary, suggests the vehicle-mounted incinerators will be used to hide evidence of battlefield casualties




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Czech_pivo said:


> If the initial reports are correct, the Russian look to be going for broke - troops landing in Odessa, crossing from Crimea heading north, through the border near Kharkov.



Ukraine’s state emergency service says attacks have been launched against 10 Ukrainian regions, primarily in the east and south of the country.

At least seven “powerful” airstrikes on Vasilkovsky airport outside Kyiv, where Ukraine’s military fighter bombers are kept, Kyiv command says

Guardian senior reporter *Peter Beaumont* tells us if the reports coming in from around Ukraine are accurate, this is far from a being a limited operation by Russia.

Instead it looks like military operations of different kinds are being launched in a broad crescent from Odessa in the south-west along the coast eastwards towards Mariupol, through to Kharkiv further north and finally Kyiv at the top of the crescent.

While a lot of reported attacks so far appear to have involved missile strikes, there are unconfirmed reports now via Ifax and elsewhere of troops landing in the south and crossing the border near Kharkiv too.









						Markets shaken after Putin announces special military operation – as it happened
					

Explosions heard after Putin announces operation to ‘demilitarise’ Ukraine. Follow the latest news and updates




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Russian god of war likely 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496707651362869248


----------



## blacktriangle

Took a quick look on Flightradar24 and it looked like the US retasked a Global Hawk that was RTB. Feet Wet, Black Sea.

Also noticed a civil track that appeared to divert as per the NOTAM...


----------



## MilEME09

my hope right now is those counter battery radars that we and others gave ukraine made it to the front in time, and saved lives in the opening salvos. I hope Ukraine is a tougher nut to crack then putin thinks it is.


----------



## MilEME09

Ukrainian Border forces have released a statement saying their forces have been attacked by Russian, and Belarusian Forces to the north, looks like Russia has decided every COA at once.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Is Ukraine expected to fight back or likely capulate?


----------



## GR66

Reports of amphibious landings at Odessa and Mariupol and that Russian airborne troops may have captured the Kyiv Airport.


----------



## MilEME09

GR66 said:


> Reports of amphibious landings at Odessa and Mariupol and that Russian airborne troops may have captured the Kyiv Airport.


Ukraine has multiple brigades tasked to defend Kyiv, I doubt the airport would be captured so swiftly, though reports of strikes against C2 and anti air defenses are confirmed.


----------



## GR66

MilEME09 said:


> Ukraine has multiple brigades tasked to defend Kyiv, I doubt the airport would be captured so swiftly, though reports of strikes against C2 and anti air defenses are confirmed.


Obviously things are very fluid at the moment and any report must be taken with a grain of salt, but that report was from a tweet by Senator Marco Rubio


----------



## daftandbarmy

Jarnhamar said:


> Is Ukraine expected to fight back or likely capulate?



My guess is that Putin's goal is to act fast and get the knife to their throat, then give them the choice...


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> So destroy them militarily, and remove the government...now what will the west do, if they want to save Ukraine, they better act fast


I fear it is too late.

Blitzkrieg was invented 80 years ago. War machines haven't gotten slower.


----------



## MilEME09

It was noted by CNN that Putin, in his invasion Address was wearing the exact same outfit as his speech on Monday, causing people to speculate it was a prerecorded Address.


----------



## Messerschmitt

I'm watching a bunch of cameras from Ukraine. I don't see anything unusual. This includes Odessa and Kiev.



			https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/ukraine/odessa/chernyakhovskoho-street.html


----------



## Messerschmitt




----------



## GR66

Messerschmitt said:


> I'm watching a bunch of cameras from Ukraine. I don't see anything unusual. This includes Odessa and Kiev.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/ukraine/odessa/chernyakhovskoho-street.html


Cool...all good then


----------



## GR66

From CNN

US senators have said the unfolding attack in Ukraine is in line with intelligence briefings they received about what to expect from a Russian invasion.

In a series of tweets, Sen. Marco Rubio, the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee, said that Russia was launching a “full scale and comprehensive military assault throughout Ukraine.”



> The attack involved “airborne and amphibious landings, missile strikes from air, ground and naval forces, electronic and cyber attacks and a large ground force to occupy a large swarth of territory," Rubio said.


He added that Russian airborne forces are also working to “take control of the airport in Kyiv (so) they can fly in forces to occupy the (capital) city." A source familiar with the matter said the tweets were based on US intelligence being shared with Intelligence Committee members.


----------



## Altair

Nice to see all the deterence the west put up has worked all so well.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Missile attack on airport

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496734064593674240


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Reports of a amphibious assault on Odessa, coupled with major bombardments of most military airfields.


----------



## Fishbone Jones

I don't  see Ukraine winning this. Nobody is coming in, under arms, to help. Maybe if they could get the UN to consider them as an independent country, neutral of either side. If they say and sign a treaty to never being NATO or Warsaw Pact (can we still call it that?) it might avoid bloodshed. That is really what Putin has been asking for the most.
All the threats about sanctions, freezing accounts, assets, trade and business, has been gamed through, thought about and contingencies planned. Putin dumped all his US Treasury bills and bought gold. He has a huge amount of a sought after commodity nobody can touch. He either has a solution or has decided it's acceptable losses. He's done his estimate and has his flow charts.

There is one sticky point that will be good watching. Ukraine is not a NATO Members, but they are NATO partners. The ball is in NATO's court now. If they walk away the alliance becomes untrustworthy and suspect.

It won't  matter, time moves on. Ukraine will become as forgotten the Crimea.

Well except for Brandon's oil investments 

All my opinion.😉


----------



## The Bread Guy

From UKR MoD's info machine so far here ....


> Today, on 24 of February, at 5.00 AM the armed forces of the Russian Federation launched an intensive shelling of our units on east, delivered missile/bomb strikes on airfields in Boryspil, Ozerne, Kulbakino, Chuhuiv, Kramatorsk, Chornobaivka, as well as on military infrastructure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the same time the aggressor started artillery shelling of the areas and settlements along the state border and administrative boundary with temporarily occupied territory of Crimea  .... In the Joined Forces Operation area 5 aircraft and 2 helicopters of Russian Aerospace Forces were shot, two tanks were damaged, several trucks of the armed forces of the Russian Federation were destroyed ...


... here ...


> Today, on February 24, at 5.00 am, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation began intense shelling of our units in the east and also launched missile and bombing raids on airdromes in Boryspil, Ozerne, Kulbakino, Chuguev, Kramatorsk, Chornobayivka, also on military facilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the same time, the aggressor started artillery shelling Ukrainian territory and settlements along the state border.  The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is repelling an air attack by an invader. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are in full combat readiness have taken and are holding defensive positions. Therefore, the situation is under control.  Information about the landing of Russian troops in Odessa is not valid.


... here ...


> ... In Chernihiv region, the enemy was stopped.  Fierce fights are taking place in the direction of Kharkiv and in the Joint Forces Operation area, where the enemy suffered casualties in men and materiel.  Our Forces have taken full control of MARIUPOL and SHCHASTIA. At least six planes, two helicopters and dozens of enemy armored vehicles have been destroyed.  The situation on Kharkiv direction is difficult, but the Ukrainian Defence Forces are fighting back the aggressor.


Full UKR mobilization?  Check.  UKR martial law for at least 30 days?  Check.  UKR diplomatic relations w/RUS severed?  Check.

From the other side, rebels say they're "liberating UKR-occupied areas" in a joint op w/RUS forces, all while asking RUS & allied media to join the info-fight.  No more evacuations to RUS from occupied areas.  RUS state media denying RUS losses reported by UKR and reporting UKR desertions.

Also, this from RUS state media ...








						Ukraine events can’t be called war, this is special military operation — Russia’s UN envoy
					

Vasily Nebenzya stressed that "we are not carrying out aggression against the Ukrainian people, this is against that junta, that seized power in Kiev"




					tass.com
				




I'd share some RUS MoD info-machine material, but their web page doesn't seem to be working ...


----------



## KevinB

Analysis: Why Putin's long-feared attack on Ukraine will rock America and the world
					

Just as diplomats at a last-minute United Nations Security Council meeting were pleading for peace, Russian fire began raining down on Ukraine.




					www.cnn.com
				




For the all the nay sayers who said that Putin wouldn't or couldn't - He did.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Analysis: Why Putin's long-feared attack on Ukraine will rock America and the world
> 
> 
> Just as diplomats at a last-minute United Nations Security Council meeting were pleading for peace, Russian fire began raining down on Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> For the all the nay sayers who said that Putin wouldn't or couldn't - He did.


For all those who thought that sanctions or financial penalties actually do anything...it doesn't.


----------



## lenaitch

Trump seems impressed:









						'This is genius': Trump praises Putin's actions in Ukraine
					

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has praised Russian President Vladimir Putin after the Kremlin announced it would recognize the breakaway regions of Eastern Ukraine as independent states.




					www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496800970298302465
Hostomel Airport outside Kyiv seized by Russian Airborne Forces.  Note the MANPAD engagement with no hits due to deployment of counter-measures.


----------



## Altair

Humphrey Bogart said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496800970298302465
> Hostomel Airport outside Kyiv seized by Russian Airborne Forces.  Note the MANPAD engagement with no hits due to deployment of counter-measures.


Dear gods.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496800970298302465
> Hostomel Airport outside Kyiv seized by Russian Airborne Forces.  Note the MANPAD engagement with no hits due to deployment of counter-measures.


If true it will make things more challenging to move west from Kiev.


----------



## KevinB

lenaitch said:


> Trump seems impressed:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 'This is genius': Trump praises Putin's actions in Ukraine
> 
> 
> Former U.S. President Donald Trump has praised Russian President Vladimir Putin after the Kremlin announced it would recognize the breakaway regions of Eastern Ukraine as independent states.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca


He makes me physically ill as a Republican.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Russian tanks have apparently already reached Kharkiv and are blocking civilians from leaving.

As well there is apparently heavy fighting in Donetsk with heavy losses to Ukrainian 53rd Brigade.

Russian Forces have also begun entering Ukraine from Crimea:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496751633388261378
Fighter jets are circling over Kyiv, apparently Russian which means the Ukrainian AD has been neutralized.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496810700949315589


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> If true it will make things more challenging to move west from Kiev.


I am very interested to see what the western trained Ukrainian forces do in the face of this.


----------



## Czech_pivo

For those of you  that have Twitter - try following @GirkinGirkin

He is posting clips of local Ukrainian successes - captured AFV and crew, captured Russian infantry, Russian plane shot down with pilot under canopy coming down, destroyed Russian AFV.  

No idea where within the Ukraine these are coming from but they do show that the Russians are taking casualties.


----------



## PuckChaser

Folks,

A lot of us still serve in the CAF and have friends who may be in harms way or you may have access to information that is not public knowledge. Please be extremely careful what you post here, and mindful of your password security. Russia has a robust Cyber capability and fully expect their troll army and OSINT skills to be deployed by now. This is especially true if Canada and NATO starts getting involved (including our publicly announcement deployments). OPSEC is everyone's problem, we're not countering the Taliban anymore.

- Milnet.ca Staff


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496829726790406149


----------



## Altair

Remius said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496829726790406149


Either a great move forward or its going to be seen as a provocation, especially by Finland.


----------



## Remius

Altair said:


> Either a great move forward or its going to be seen as a provocation, especially by Finland.


I suspect it will piss off Russia.


----------



## Halifax Tar

> Today, two F-16 Fighting Falcon aircraft of the Romanian Air Force in the NATO Air Command combat service took off, around 6.15 am, to clarify an air situation regarding an unauthorized flight in the northern part of Romania, which is close to national airspace.
> The two Romanian military aircraft strictly applied the national procedures and international rules applicable in such situations, proceeding to the interception and visual identification of the aircraft that had entered the Romanian airspace. The aircraft, a Sukhoi 27 belonging to the Ukrainian Air Force, was escorted for immediate landing at Bacau Air Base 95, which ended at 07.05.
> After landing, the Ukrainian military pilot made himself available to the Romanian authorities, and the legal measures required in these situations will be taken.



Read that on FB this am


----------



## The Bread Guy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> ... As well there is apparently heavy fighting in Donetsk with heavy losses to Ukrainian 53rd Brigade ...


Separatist rebels' info-machine allege the whole unit's gone over (Google English translation) - take that with the same grain of salt as Taliban reports of more than a dozen Canadians killed for each one actually killed.


----------



## Altair

Remius said:


> I suspect it will piss off Russia.


I mean, sure, it is.

What i mean is, if Finland and Sweden are fast tracked into NATO, all is well, Russia can go pound sand.

If they are not, Finland might have done the one thing to get a target put on its back.


----------



## MilEME09

Altair said:


> I mean, sure, it is.
> 
> What i mean is, if Finland and Sweden are fast tracked into NATO, all is well, Russia can go pound sand.
> 
> If they are not, Finland might have done the one thing to get a target put on its back.


I think its likely this will tip domestic opinions to favor joining NATO. 

The next 24 hours will be key to how this goes. Sanctions, as useless as they have been, are coming. If they are damaging enough, will putin retaliate like he threatened to? Absolutely I believe so, Putin reminds me of Hitler in the late stages of the war in terms of his mental state, and grip on reality. Except he has a army to command, and nuclear weapons.


----------



## Remius

From a market perspective Western Canada could see oil, wheat etc go up


----------



## dapaterson

EU gonna EU.  "Sanctions, sure, but carve out exemptions for luxury goods and diamonds."


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496758467943866374


----------



## MilEME09

dapaterson said:


> EU gonna EU.  "Sanctions, sure, but carve out exemptions for luxury goods and diamonds."
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496758467943866374


Road as Europe doesn't want to actually do anything meaningful


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> I think its likely this will tip domestic opinions to favor joining NATO.
> 
> The next 24 hours will be key to how this goes. Sanctions, as useless as they have been, are coming. If they are damaging enough, will putin retaliate like he threatened to? Absolutely I believe so, Putin reminds me of Hitler in the late stages of the war in terms of his mental state, and grip on reality. Except he has a army to command, and nuclear weapons.


I think the only retaliation comes if NATO intervenes militarily. Russia has taken sanctions before and they dont escalate based on that.

And if they do, it will be economically. Cut gas exports for example.


----------



## The Bread Guy

From UKR media








						Air threat declared in Kyiv, residents asked to go to shelters - Kyiv City Administration
					

Kyiv City State Administration reports an air threat in the Ukrainian capital.




					en.interfax.com.ua
				











						Four ballistic missiles launched from territory of Belarus in south-western direction - Commander-in-Chief of UAF
					

Four ballistic missiles were fired at the territory of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus, commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Zaluzhny said.




					en.interfax.com.ua
				



So far, BLR publicly denying any role at this point.


----------



## Halifax Tar

*BREAKING NEWS*


----------



## FM07

As world looks to Ukraine, did Russia just take Belarus? 

An article detailing how Russia has effectively occupied Belarus for the long term. I believe there are reports out there about Belarusian forces joining in on the invasion as well.


----------



## KevinB

FM07 said:


> As world looks to Ukraine, did Russia just take Belarus?
> 
> An article detailing how Russia has effectively occupied Belarus for the long term. I believe there are reports out there about Belarusian forces joining in on the invasion as well.


Lukashenko has been a Putin puppet before his last rigged election.   The RU forces in Belarus helped him quell a lot of internal opposition over the past few months, the Russians don't need to take Belarus, as they already had their puppet in place.

Several missiles have been reported to be fired from inside Belarus into Ukraine - which makes them party to the conflict (I think personally NATO should invade Belarus with "peacekeepers" and ask Vlad what he thinks of that one...)


----------



## TacticalTea

dapaterson said:


> EU gonna EU.  "Sanctions, sure, but carve out exemptions for luxury goods and diamonds."
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496758467943866374


Motherfuckers.
Absolutely useless and shameless pieces of trash.

Pardon my emotivity, but this is beyond my rational comprehension.

To be clear, I am utterly disgusted by their response.


----------



## Remius

TacticalTea said:


> Motherfuckers.
> Absolutely useless and shameless pieces of trash.
> 
> Pardon my emotivity, but this is beyond my rational comprehension.


Designer shoes and bling are priority items in war times.


----------



## FM07

KevinB said:


> Several missiles have been reported to be fired from inside Belarus into Ukraine - which makes them party to the conflict (I think personally NATO should invade Belarus with "peacekeepers" and ask Vlad what he thinks of that one...)


 Seen. They are just as much a 'principle' aggressor as RUS in this gambit as long as they aid the bear IMO.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> ... Several missiles have been reported to be fired from inside Belarus into Ukraine - which makes them party to the conflict (I think personally NATO should invade Belarus with "peacekeepers" and* ask Vlad what he thinks of that one*...)


Well, RUS's state media/info-machine says that question's been settled  








						Lukashenko says Putin promises he would regard attack on Belarus as attack on Russia
					

The Belarusian leader pointed out that NATO was quickly building up forces on the border with Belarus in Poland and in the Baltic countries




					tass.com


----------



## Jarnhamar

TacticalTea said:


> Motherfuckers.
> Absolutely useless and shameless pieces of trash.
> 
> Pardon my emotivity, but this is beyond my rational comprehension.
> 
> To be clear, I am utterly disgusted by their response.


No wonder so many British wanted to get the fuck away from the EU.


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496863144333168640


----------



## Remius

Jarnhamar said:


> No wonder so many British wanted to get the fuck away from the EU.


Makes brexit look good now eh?


----------



## dapaterson

Britain is the primary money launderer for Russian oligarchs, so they have no claim to moral superiority.


----------



## OceanBonfire

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496836765092569088


----------



## daftandbarmy

Remius said:


> Makes brexit look good now eh?



The English Channel is already the world's largest tank trap


----------



## QV

lenaitch said:


> Trump seems impressed:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 'This is genius': Trump praises Putin's actions in Ukraine
> 
> 
> Former U.S. President Donald Trump has praised Russian President Vladimir Putin after the Kremlin announced it would recognize the breakaway regions of Eastern Ukraine as independent states.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca


Out of context as usual. Trump isn't praising Putin, he's stating the obvious that Putin's actions and Biden's inactivity are leading to Putin's success in the region. Trump is cynical and also speaks sarcastically often (the "peace force" comments), its surprising that is not picked up on this forum.

This article is full blown bullshit out of context.


----------



## The Bread Guy

#AnArmedSocietyIsAPoliteSociety, continued ...








						Weapons given to all those willing, able to defend Ukraine - Zelensky
					

Everyone who has combat experience and can join the defense of Ukraine must immediately arrive at the relevant recruitment centers of the Ministry of Interior




					112.international


----------



## Scott

ADMIN POST

Rapidly changing situation and disinformation campaigns are a standard.

Please post only openly sourced information, and do some source checking to give us a chance at not promoting disinfo.

Reminder of OPSEC.

Opinions and info shared here may not please your employer, please consider this.

Thanks all.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> I don't  see Ukraine winning this.



Ukraine doesn't have to win the war; it just has to win the occupation.

After Ukraine, there aren't many non-NATO countries bordering on Russia from which to take bites.  Moldova, Finland.

There is no path to effective pressure against Russia which is going to be painless for everyone involved.  But if everything owned by everyone connected to Putin could be legally confiscated, that would help.  Internal Russian pressure would be much more effective.


----------



## Altair

Brad Sallows said:


> Ukraine doesn't have to win the war; it just has to win the occupation.
> 
> After Ukraine, there aren't many non-NATO countries bordering on Russia from which to take bites.  Moldova, Finland.
> 
> There is no path to effective pressure against Russia which is going to be painless for everyone involved.  But if everything owned by everyone connected to Putin could be legally confiscated, that would help.  Internal Russian pressure would be much more effective.


What occupation?

Russia is moving in, enacting regime change, moving out.


----------



## TacticalTea

EU Undecided on SWIFT

''Germany, Italy, Hungary and Cyprus, who have stronger economic ties to Russia and do not want SWIFT included in the new sanctions.

A senior EU diplomat said “there is a conversation happening” but believes it is “likely” the economic interests will win the argument and Brussels will not cut Russia from SWIFT.''

NONE of these four countries' commerce with Russia amount for more than 2% of their international trade.

The house is burning but let's mow the lawn instead of calling the fire department...


----------



## Kirkhill

Boris seems to be warming up his audience



> *The Russian invasion of Ukraine may have to be stopped "militarily", Boris Johnson has suggested*.
> 
> In an address to the nation after Vladimir Putin's declaration of war overnight, the Prime Minister accused the Russian president - who he labelled a "dictator" - of authorising a "tidal wave of violence".
> 
> "Our mission is clear," Mr Johnson said. "Diplomatically, politically, economically *and eventually militarily*, this hideous and barbaric venture of Vladimir Putin must end in failure."
> 
> He did not specify what military action may be needed or by whom. While Britain has supplied Ukraine with defensive weapons, it has not sent troops because Ukraine is not a fellow Nato member state.











						PM unveils 'largest and most severe economic sanctions Russia has ever seen'
					

Boris Johnson has announced that Britain will implement the "largest and most severe package of economic sanctions that Russia has ever seen" in response to the invasion of Ukraine.




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				












						United Kingdom, Poland and Ukraine foreign ministers' joint statement, February 2022
					

The UK Foreign Secretary, Polish Foreign Affairs Minister and Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister gave a statement on joint work to build resilience in Ukraine.




					www.gov.uk
				




Poland has been buying all sorts of western kit - Air Defence to Abrams tanks and lots of guns.

UK Defence programme has been to focus on Strategic Assets - ISR, SF, Rangers, SFABs, and creating a deployable Deep Strike capability with ISR and Rockets, together with the RAF's strike assets and the Army Air Corps - And, of course, the RN's independent strategic deterrent.

Alinsky, among others, said 

9. "The threat is usually more terrifying than the thing itself. "
1. "Power is not only what you have but what the enemy thinks you have."

Vladimir is starting to show his cards.  The more he shows the less the threat.  Not just from the material wastage of the physical threat but also from using the powers available to him and displaying both their capabilities and limitations.  The more he uses the more he is constrained and limited.

The situation is the same for his nuclear threat.  He has long said that his nuclear forces are on the table in a regional conflict like the Ukraine. The threat is real.  But it is a one shot deal.  

Kaliningrad seems to be an obvious counter, even with the risk.

Meanwhile there are tales of Chernobyl being weaponised.









						As it happened: Europe plunged into war as Russia invades Ukraine
					

The Chernobyl nuclear power plant has been seized by Russian forces, as their troops continue to advance on Kyiv.




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				




If Putin was struggling to find pretexts, and having to create them, he is handing his enemies pretexts aplenty on a platter.


----------



## YZT580

QV said:


> Out of context as usual. Trump isn't praising Putin, he's stating the obvious that Putin's actions and Biden's inactivity are leading to Putin's success in the region. Trump is cynical and also speaks sarcastically often (the "peace force" comments), its surprising that is not picked up on this forum.
> 
> This article is full blown bullshit out of context.


Isn't Trump 100% correct?  Putin has read the EU (world) exactly right.  All bovine gas and absolutely no meat.  Chamberlain could have crafted our response.  Unfortunately for Ukraine, there isn't a single Churchill in the western world.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Russia is moving in, enacting regime change, moving out.



Sure.  Sometimes the regime changes again.  We live in the era of the Soleimani Solution.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Isn't Trump 100% correct?



Mostly, but he expressed it in his usual pig-wrestling style, which always gets a few goats.


----------



## Kirkhill

dapaterson said:


> Britain is the primary money launderer for Russian oligarchs, so they have no claim to moral superiority.



Morality is something that nobody has ever put high on the British agenda.  Occasionally it serves a useful purpose, like offering the pretext of the Slave Patrol to put weight behind the claim to rule the waves - but by and large Britain is a pragmatic nest of pirates, freebooters and shopkeepers who like to hang on to their money and their liberties.  

Interest, not friends.  And you spell it principal, with an -al, not an -le.


----------



## Kirkhill

Remius said:


> I suspect it will piss off Russia.



That bear is already aggravated - 

What happens if the Border along the Western Front goes live and the Russia faces Western troops armed and entrenched on their frontiers?


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> That bear is already aggravated -
> 
> What happens if the Border along the Western Front goes live and the Russia faces Western troops armed and entrenched on their frontiers?


Well if Finland joins NATO, with over 2/3 of the Russian army near Ukraine, any pushes into Russia would face light opposition. Which would make the bear very desperate, and go full CBRN I bet.


----------



## Kirkhill

dapaterson said:


> EU gonna EU.  "Sanctions, sure, but carve out exemptions for luxury goods and diamonds."
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496758467943866374



How else are the oligarchs going to secure their wealth and make a run for it.  Their accounts are frozen.  Diamonds are a lot more portable than gold.


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> That bear is already aggravated -
> 
> What happens if WHEN the Border along the Western Front goes live and the Russia faces Western troops armed and entrenched on their frontiers?


Fixed it for you.
  Someone will jab - the question is when and how big the punch will be, and what happens after the first punch is thrown.


----------



## MilEME09

Russian stock market MOEX has already fallen over 40% in morning trading, if we want to cripple the Russian economy, now is the time to do it.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Russian stock market MOEX has already fallen over 40% in morning trading, if we want to cripple the Russian economy, now is the time to do it.


The World Economy (except probably China) will be a smoking ruin with the fallout from this - and China will take a dive too when people can't pay for their stuff anymore.


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> The World Economy (except probably China) will be a smoking ruin with the fallout from this - and China will take a dive too when people can't pay for their stuff anymore.


You bet. 
First the pandemic, then the resulting supply chain disruption and inflation, and now war.

Yet the fools in Brussels still think they can scrounge a few dollars more by compromising on fundamental values.


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> Well if Finland joins NATO, with over 2/3 of the Russian army near Ukraine, any pushes into Russia would face light opposition. Which would make the bear very desperate, and go full CBRN I bet.



Entirely possible, which is why the threat of a mobilized Finland (Norway, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Romania) together with Sweden and Denmark - all with open borders to their west and access to considerable funding and manufacturing are most likely to continue to be a threat rather than deployment.

And while Vlad may be inclined to go the razzle dazzle route it is an open question, in my mind, how many rounds he would get off before his fellow oligarchs decided an alternate course of action was called for.


----------



## Brad Sallows

Can't blame the fools for wanting to protect their assets after failing to competently use their powers to prevent a war.


----------



## MilEME09

Videos show multiple Russian attack helicopters shot down in Ukraine
					

Russian forces continued their invasion of Ukraine on Thursday, and suffered some cost as Ukraine fought back. Several videos taken near Hostomel, a town




					americanmilitarynews.com
				




Video by radio free Europe showing the shooting down of a bunch of Russian helicopters by a Ukrainian MIG-29 and manpads.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> The World Economy (except probably China) will be a smoking ruin with the fallout from this - and China will take a dive too when people can't pay for their stuff anymore.


Nah!

We've been here before.  Just as the rules constantly change militarily they are constantly changing economically.   As long as people breathe they will trade and accountants will track the trade and the wealth.  And people will find a way to work around any and all rules.  Stay balanced and Max Flex!


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> Nah!
> 
> We've been here before.  Just as the rules constantly change militarily they are constantly changing economically.   As long as people breathe they will trade and accountants will track the trade and the wealth.  And people will find a way to work around any and all rules.  Stay balanced and Max Flex!


Russian can't deal with the losses - and we can't deal with the refugees...


----------



## Jarnhamar

Have there been any tank or armor engagements noted yet?


----------



## Halifax Tar

Jarnhamar said:


> Have there been any tank or armor engagements noted yet?



I have seen pics of at least one wrecked Russian T90... but unsure if the details of the engagement.


----------



## Messerschmitt

Halifax Tar said:


> Read that on FB this am


The SU 27 had a technical problem so it entered Romanian airspace. 

Current situation


----------



## Kirkhill

TacticalTea said:


> You bet.
> First the pandemic, then the resulting supply chain disruption and inflation, and now war.
> 
> Yet the fools in Brussels still think they can scrounge a few dollars more by compromising on fundamental values.



And by the way, Brussels and the Low Countries have a long history of surviving economic upheavals.  

Dorestad - Gold town
Gelderland 
Brugge
Bourse
Bank of Amsterdam

The kids are all right.

Lack of morality is not unique to Britain.  Especially since the City of London started protecting Dutch interests in 1689.  And then opened a branch plant on Wall Street.


----------



## KevinB

Maps: Tracking the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
					

Ukraine captured more territory in the last week than Russia did in the last five months.



					www.nytimes.com
				



 May be behind paywall ( I have subscription) - but the Maps have a fairly decent update rate on the conflict zones.


----------



## suffolkowner

Interesting start so far where the lack of any viable options in the air domain have clearly hamstrung the Ukrainians as expected. Surprisingly it appears that the Ukrainians didn't actually expect an attack?

I still don't see a clear endgame for Russia here.


----------



## Kirkhill

Further to Britain's role

My personal opinion is the Boris and his government, and the opposition, are more inclined towards William Pitt, both of them.









						William Pitt, the Elder - Leadership during Seven Years’ War
					

The outbreak of the Seven Years’ War gave Pitt his supreme opportunity for statesmanship. The war began with heavy losses and considerable confusion of policy. The popular demand for Pitt became irresistible, and he declared, “I am sure I can save this country, and nobody else can.” In November...



					www.britannica.com
				











						United Kingdom - William Pitt the Younger
					

Pitt lived and died a bachelor, totally obsessed with political office. He was clever, single-minded, confident of his own abilities, and a natural politician. But perhaps his greatest asset in the early 1780s was his youth. He had entered Parliament in 1780 and was just 24 when he became first...



					www.britannica.com


----------



## KevinB

suffolkowner said:


> I still don't see a clear endgame for Russia here.


USSR 2.0
   It's back with twice the corruption and authoritarianism,  and none of the old Communist dogma


----------



## suffolkowner

KevinB said:


> USSR 2.0
> It's back with twice the corruption and authoritarianism,  and none of the old Communist dogma


Well Russia-Belarus-Ukraine is a good approximation of the Russian empire, I find it hard to believe that Putin is going to be able to hold Ukraine that close unless he pumps a ton of money in there.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Jarnhamar said:


> Have there been any tank or armor engagements noted yet?


At least a few media reports peppering their coverage








						Russian Armor 'Destroyed' On Outskirts Of Kharkiv
					

Images made on Kharkiv's ring road show what Ukraine's military say are Russian armored vehicles destroyed in battle.




					www.rferl.org
				











						Ukraine uses Javelins against Russian tanks in Sumy region
					

Near the town of Hlukhiv, Sumy region, Ukrainian troops used Javelin anti-tank missile systems and neutralized a convoy of Russian tanks. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				











						Sixteen Russian tanks attacking Ukrainian positions near Pyshchevyk - JFO
					

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are fighting Russian occupiers as of 15:00, the press service of the Joint Forces Operation has reported on Facebook. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				











						Column of Russian tanks enter Luhansk region, defense is underway – Interior Ministry
					

Columns of Russian tanks entered the Lugansk region at the turn of the settlements of Krasna Talivka, Milove, Horodysche, according to the Facebook page of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.




					en.interfax.com.ua
				




Just catching this now during my lunch break, so others may have more OSINT stuff out there.

OP edit to add attached Google Translation of UKR MoD statement


----------



## Colin Parkinson

KevinB said:


> USSR 2.0
> It's back with twice the corruption and authoritarianism,  and none of the old Communist dogma


Funny I just used that phrase talking to my wife about this.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> USSR 2.0
> It's back with twice the corruption and authoritarianism,  and none of the old Communist dogma



My thinking is the risk the actual end state will not be something Putin likes.









						Grand Duchy of Moscow - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## MilEME09

Canada just announced more sanctions, and canceled all export permits to Russia effective immediately


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> Canada just announced more sanctions, and canceled all export permits to Russia effective immediately


... not to mention "The Chat"








						National Post
					

Read latest breaking news, updates, and headlines. National Post offers information on latest national and international events & more.




					nationalpost.com


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> At least a few UKR media reports peppering their coverage
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine uses Javelins against Russian tanks in Sumy region
> 
> 
> Near the town of Hlukhiv, Sumy region, Ukrainian troops used Javelin anti-tank missile systems and neutralized a convoy of Russian tanks. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sixteen Russian tanks attacking Ukrainian positions near Pyshchevyk - JFO
> 
> 
> The Ukrainian Armed Forces are fighting Russian occupiers as of 15:00, the press service of the Joint Forces Operation has reported on Facebook. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Column of Russian tanks enter Luhansk region, defense is underway – Interior Ministry
> 
> 
> Columns of Russian tanks entered the Lugansk region at the turn of the settlements of Krasna Talivka, Milove, Horodysche, according to the Facebook page of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.interfax.com.ua
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Just catching this now during my lunch break, so others may have more OSINT stuff out there.



Good to know the Javelins work.


----------



## Kilted

Video: CNN reporter shows just how close Russian forces are to Ukraine capital | CNN
					

CNN's Matthew Chance shows what it looks like at an airbase outside the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, where Russian airborne troops are engaged in a fire fight with the Ukrainian military.




					www.cnn.com
				




I get the feeling that it's not entirely safe for the news crew to be there.


----------



## Halifax Tar

MilEME09 said:


> Canada just announced more sanctions, and canceled all export permits to Russia effective immediately



I think we can now see that doesn't mean much.  

Maybe over time... But right now it's pretty empty.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Fixed it for you.
> Someone will jab - the question is when and how big the punch will be, and what happens after the first punch is thrown.


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> ... not to mention "The Chat"
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> National Post
> 
> 
> Read latest breaking news, updates, and headlines. National Post offers information on latest national and international events & more.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nationalpost.com











						Petrol set for new record as oil hits $105 after Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine
					

Russian attack sends oil and gas prices soaring as western leaders vow further sanctions




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				












						John Ivison: How Canada can keep Europe's lights on
					

Sending troops is important. Sending natural gas could have a bigger impact




					nationalpost.com
				




And who knows, we might be able to make a buck.

Assuming it doesn't contravene WEF guidance.


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


>





> He either fears his fate too much,
> Or his deserts are small,
> That puts it not unto the touch
> To win or lose it all.











						My Dear and Only Love by James Graham, Marquis of… | Poetry Foundation
					

My dear and only Love, I pray




					www.poetryfoundation.org


----------



## KevinB

Russians seize the Chernobyl site








						Live Updates: Russian Forces Seize Chernobyl Site
					

The advance, part of a multipronged Russian assault against Ukraine, risked damaging the cement-encased nuclear reactor that melted down in 1986. Biden is expected to speak soon.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Halifax Tar

Why is that place important ?  Shouldn't be abandoned and overly radiated ?


----------



## KevinB

Halifax Tar said:


> Why is that place important ?  Shouldn't be abandoned and overly radiated ?


Lots of spend fuel rods and other irradiated items.
   Putin was spinning another yarn about UKR WDM programs too


----------



## Altair

From a purely objective outlook, it is interesting to watch a modern war against a near peer state.

A military more interested in warfighting and killing than gender and misconduct.

That said, is russia excercising restraint?

Are they slow walking this watching for the reaction from the west?

Or is the bears bite not as fierce as feared?


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496908378643177473
"Russia and China hate each other"


----------



## suffolkowner

Altair said:


> From a purely objective outlook, it is interesting to watch a modern war against a near peer state.
> 
> A military more interested in warfighting and killing than gender and misconduct.
> 
> That said, is russia excercising restraint?
> 
> Are they slow walking this watching for the reaction from the west?
> 
> Or is the bears bite not as fierce as feared?



I agree from the outside its an interesting look at a large scale confrontation that we haven't seen since the Gulf War

I think there is a bit of restraint being shown for the Ukrainians are just Russians by another name according to some so large scale dumb bombing is not in the works especially if they want anything useable left to govern


----------



## dapaterson

Halifax Tar said:


> Why is that place important ?  Shouldn't be abandoned and overly radiated ?


Looking at the map, it's a location to consolidate on the enemy side of a key bridge.

That interpretation plus $2.00 will get you a double double at Timmies.


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


>



528 bombs exploded above ground since 1945
1528 exploded under ground






						The Nuclear Testing Tally | Arms Control Association
					






					www.armscontrol.org
				




Nasty things.  We have had to develop tests to detect isotopes in milk because of fallout issues.  We've been living with them all this time.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> USSR 2.0
> It's back with twice the corruption and authoritarianism,  and none of the old Communist dogma


Do they get Gulag's 2.0 or just dust off the old ones and reuse?


----------



## Altair

suffolkowner said:


> I agree from the outside its an interesting look at a large scale confrontation that we haven't seen since the Gulf War
> 
> I think there is a bit of restraint being shown for the Ukrainians are just Russians by another name according to some so large scale dumb bombing is not in the works especially if they want anything useable left to govern


Yeah, they keep showing live shots of Kiev and its...relatively peaceful.

The USA definitely used more shock and awe during their opening campaigns against iraq 2 times and afghanistan that 1 time.


----------



## KevinB

suffolkowner said:


> I agree from the outside its an interesting look at a large scale confrontation that we haven't seen since the Gulf War
> 
> I think there is a bit of restraint being shown for the Ukrainians are just Russians by another name according to some so large scale dumb bombing is not in the works especially if they want anything useable left to govern


The other aspect is the Ukraine has a bunch of Nuclear reactors too -- don't want to bomb one of those by accident.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> The other aspect is the Ukraine has a bunch of Nuclear reactors too -- don't want to bomb one of those by accident.


Kiev, Kharkov, Lviv, there are other places they could have razed to the ground.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Lots of spend fuel rods and other irradiated items.
> * Putin was spinning another yarn about UKR WDM programs too*


That was Russia's take on this ....








						Zelensky: Ukraine may reconsider its nuclear status
					

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said at the Munich Security Conference that he would initiate consultations within the framework of the Budapest Memorandum. If the summit of the countries participating in the Budapest Memorandum does not take place or does not provide Ukraine with...




					uawire.org


----------



## Kirkhill

Halifax Tar said:


> Why is that place important ?  Shouldn't be abandoned and overly radiated ?



I was in Germany for a conference a couple of years back.  Folks from all over Europe, mainly youngsters.  One group of lads was just back from their Bachelor Weekend.  At Chernobyl.  It has become something of  a wild west playground.

In a densely populated part of the world it is open ground.  A great staging point if you were militarily inclined.  

And, according to the lads, there wasn't even much of a police presence.  Freedom.


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> Kiev, Kharkov, Lviv, there are other places they could have razed to the ground.



But they are not.  There is a degree of restraint.  A couple of demonstration shots at sites in Mariupol, Kiev, Odesa and Kharkiv, and the obligatory airborne seizure of an airfield near the capital.  But the rest of the game seems to have been a ground game?


----------



## Czech_pivo

Anyone have a sense of when Vlad needs this to wind down before things could start to look bad for him?  Two days?  Five days? A week?


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> I was in Germany for a conference a couple of years back.  Folks from all over Europe, mainly youngsters.  One group of lads was just back from their Bachelor Weekend.  At Chernobyl.  It has become something of  a wild west playground.
> 
> In a densely populated part of the world it is open ground.  A great staging point if you were militarily inclined.
> 
> And, according to the lads, there wasn't even much of a police presence.  Freedom.


It's still a contaminated area -- there is a time limit on safe exposure without PPE in the exclusion zone -


----------



## Kirkhill

Track Russia's invasion of Ukraine - Blog
					

In Odessa, 18 people were killed in an airstrike on a military base near Ukraine’s Black Sea port city, the local administration said. Ten of the victims were women and eight were men.  It was the deadliest single strike so far of the day reported by Ukrainian officials, who had earlier put the...




					world.bemoo.xyz


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Anyone have a sense of when Vlad needs this to wind down before things could start to look bad for him?  Two days?  Five days? A week?


-2 days ago


----------



## OldSolduer

MND looks like the adult in a room full of kids.


----------



## dimsum

OldSolduer said:


> MND looks like the adult in a room full of kids.


Her reputation was never in doubt.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> It's still a contaminated area -- there is a time limit on safe exposure without PPE in the exclusion zone -



But that is a matter of distance, as well as time.  And the Bachelor Party reported that the "fun" in the district was more important than the risk.  Even with dosimeters.

If you are working for Vlad you may not want to be posted to Chernobyl, but, as DAP says, it makes a great "lay down site" for consolidation.


----------



## KevinB

President Biden just threw Europe under the bus when talking about why Russia isn't getting locked out of SWIFT.


----------



## Altair

Kirkhill said:


> But they are not.  There is a degree of restraint.  A couple of demonstration shots at sites in Mariupol, Kiev, Odesa and Kharkiv, and the obligatory airborne seizure of an airfield near the capital.  But the rest of the game seems to have been a ground game?


A restrained ground game.

Either that or Ukraine doesnt have a lot of forces offering heavy resistance at the border regions.

Because we all know russia can flatten grid squares, but we have not really seen that outside the opening salvo near Kharkov.


----------



## Halifax Tar

3400 CDN Troops on notice to move...


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> President Biden just threw Europe under the bus when talking about why Russia isn't getting locked out of SWIFT.


Italy and Germany are refusing to allow it.


----------



## Halifax Tar

OldSolduer said:


> MND looks like the adult in a room full of kids.



I thought the foreign minister sounded very good as well.  Firm.


----------



## Kat Stevens

Halifax Tar said:


> 3400 CDN Troops on notice to move...


Fulda Gap Speed Bump v2.0.


----------



## KevinB

I guess being a Dictator has the down side of being the only one to blame...








						Live Updates: Biden Vows Putin Will Pay for Ukraine Invasion
					

“Putin chose this war, and now he and his country will bear the consequences,” President Biden said in his first public remarks since the assault began.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Halifax Tar

I'm hearing of anti war protests breaking out in Russia


----------



## MilEME09

Halifax Tar said:


> 3400 CDN Troops on notice to move...


Where is that figure coming from?


----------



## Halifax Tar

MilEME09 said:


> Where is that figure coming from?



CBC ticker


----------



## KevinB

Halifax Tar said:


> I'm hearing of anti war protests breaking out in Russia


Yeah I tried to upload a few links and OS pictures - but not working atm


----------



## Spencer100

Don't get to see this everyday.  The receiving end of a Su-27. wow and low





__ https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=519086162885598


----------



## Jarnhamar

Halifax Tar said:


> 3400 CDN Troops on notice to move...


Who said that?


----------



## MilEME09

Spencer100 said:


> Don't get to see this everyday.  The receiving end of a Su-27. wow and low
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=519086162885598


Targeting civilians?


----------



## Halifax Tar

Jarnhamar said:


> Who said that?



CBC Ticker


----------



## Jarnhamar

Halifax Tar said:


> CBC Ticker


Just seen the previous message. Thanks.


----------



## Remius

Halifax Tar said:


> I'm hearing of anti war protests breaking out in Russia


Yeah, and they are arresting them as they protest.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Jarnhamar said:


> Just seen the previous message. Thanks.



It's mentioned here too:

A rundown of Canada's sanctions and other actions against Russia​
OTTAWA — Canada and its allies have upped their sanctions on Russia as that country becomes increasingly aggressive against neighbouring Ukraine. Here is a rundown of the measures that have been put in place, and other actions Canada is taking.

— About 3,400 Canadian Armed Forces personnel have also been authorized to deploy to Europe should NATO require the assistance.





__





						CityNews
					






					toronto.citynews.ca


----------



## KevinB

Remius said:


> Yeah, and they are arresting them as they protest.


Over 400 arrested in Moscow -- clearly they should have brought Trucks...


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> Targeting civilians?


There is a inherent problem with arming every man and woman.


----------



## MilEME09

daftandbarmy said:


> It's mentioned here too:
> 
> A rundown of Canada's sanctions and other actions against Russia​
> OTTAWA — Canada and its allies have upped their sanctions on Russia as that country becomes increasingly aggressive against neighbouring Ukraine. Here is a rundown of the measures that have been put in place, and other actions Canada is taking.
> 
> — About 3,400 Canadian Armed Forces personnel have also been authorized to deploy to Europe should NATO require the assistance.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> CityNews
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> toronto.citynews.ca


so a full brigade is on Notice to move? believe 3 Div is on high readiness right now, I am betting kit checks are being double checked right now just in case.


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> A restrained ground game.
> 
> Either that or Ukraine doesnt have a lot of forces offering heavy resistance at the border regions.
> 
> Because we all know russia can flatten grid squares, but we have not really seen that outside the opening salvo near Kharkov.





The Bread Guy said:


> At least a few media reports peppering their coverage
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian Armor 'Destroyed' On Outskirts Of Kharkiv
> 
> 
> Images made on Kharkiv's ring road show what Ukraine's military say are Russian armored vehicles destroyed in battle.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rferl.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine uses Javelins against Russian tanks in Sumy region
> 
> 
> Near the town of Hlukhiv, Sumy region, Ukrainian troops used Javelin anti-tank missile systems and neutralized a convoy of Russian tanks. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sixteen Russian tanks attacking Ukrainian positions near Pyshchevyk - JFO
> 
> 
> The Ukrainian Armed Forces are fighting Russian occupiers as of 15:00, the press service of the Joint Forces Operation has reported on Facebook. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Column of Russian tanks enter Luhansk region, defense is underway – Interior Ministry
> 
> 
> Columns of Russian tanks entered the Lugansk region at the turn of the settlements of Krasna Talivka, Milove, Horodysche, according to the Facebook page of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.interfax.com.ua
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Just catching this now during my lunch break, so others may have more OSINT stuff out there.
> 
> OP edit to add attached Google Translation of UKR MoD statement



I think I have to disagree on the push back from the Ukrainians. Killing company columns of tanks with Man Portable ATGMs doesn't strike me as an ineffectual resistance.

It may speak more to the degree of commitment of Vlad to those northern approaches and whether or not those are demonstrations.  More to follow on that I guess.

Vlad's primary bombardment was a slow moving BM21 Grad barrage on the perimeter of the occupied Donbass.  Almost as if he were drawing a dotted line.


----------



## Remius

Anyone seeing any traffic about the Ukrainians retaking and holding the airport at Hostomel?  

There seems to be some reports of Ukrainian push back in a few spots.


----------



## MilEME09

Remius said:


> Anyone seeing any traffic about the Ukrainians retaking and holding the airport at Hostomel?
> 
> There seems to be some reports of Ukrainian push back in a few spots.


I wouldn't be surprised, seeing a lot of video of Javalin's and stingers being very effective against russian forces. They may be making limited counter attacks as needed.


----------



## Jarnhamar

MilEME09 said:


> so a full brigade is on Notice to move? believe 3 Div is on high readiness right now, I am betting kit checks are being double checked right now just in case.



What ever happened to our very high readiness brigade.


----------



## OldSolduer

MilEME09 said:


> Where is that figure coming from?


MND quoted it herself. Troops going on standby


----------



## The Bread Guy

Remius said:


> Anyone seeing any traffic about the Ukrainians retaking and holding the airport at Hostomel?
> 
> There seems to be some reports of Ukrainian push back in a few spots.


A few mentions in recent UKR media with mixed takes ...








						Active battles continue in Hostomel near Kyiv, there is danger of landing of Russian forces in govt quarter of Kyiv – advisor Podoliak
					

Adviser to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Mykhailo Podoliak announced the possibility of enemy troops entering the government quarter in the center of Kyiv to carry out a special operation to overthrow the Ukrainian government.




					en.interfax.com.ua
				











						National Guard of Ukraine pushes Russians out of Gostomel airfield
					

Ukrainian troops had to shell the local airport to stop the deployment of Russian assault landing group




					112.international
				











						Ukrainian Armed Forces recapture Hostomel from Russian aggressor – Arestovych
					

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have recaptured Hostomel (Kyiv region) from Russian invaders, Oleksiy Arestovych, advisor to head of the President's Office, said.




					en.interfax.com.ua


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> I think I have to disagree on the push back from the Ukrainians. Killing company columns of tanks with Man Portable ATGMs doesn't strike me as an ineffectual resistance.
> 
> It may speak more to the degree of commitment of Vlad to those northern approaches and whether or not those are demonstrations.  More to follow on that I guess.
> 
> Vlad's primary bombardment was a slow moving BM21 Grad barrage on the perimeter of the occupied Donbass.  Almost as if he were drawing a dotted line.


if you have twitter look at @girkingirkin for examples of local ukrainian successes.


----------



## Messerschmitt

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-protest-arrests-1.6362938
		


Putin does not have his population backing.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Remius said:


> Anyone seeing any traffic about the Ukrainians retaking and holding the airport at Hostomel?
> 
> There seems to be some reports of Ukrainian push back in a few spots.


The Russians went in on helo's, not sure how many but can't be more than half a battalion to a battalion with no heavy weapons or armour i'd guess.  Would be light on ammo as well unless constant resupply is happening.


----------



## Spencer100

Messerschmitt said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-protest-arrests-1.6362938
> 
> 
> 
> Putin does not have his population backing.


I really don't thinks that matters much in the short term.  He gets a win here all will be forgiven.


----------



## Altair

Messerschmitt said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-protest-arrests-1.6362938
> 
> 
> 
> Putin does not have his population backing.


Yes, he will definately lose the next election.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Czech_pivo said:


> The Russians went in on helo's, not sure how many but can't be more than half a battalion to a battalion with no heavy weapons or armour i'd guess.  Would be light on ammo as well unless constant resupply is happening.



It might be a feint. 

Go in light, get "captured", have justification to go in heavy to "rescue our valiant Comrades" and crush any further resistance.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Soooooooo, who's surrendering to who these days?








						Russia's 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade recon platoon surrenders to Ukraine's army
					

The servicemen gave up and their commander claimed they never thought they were going to war




					112.international
				











						Lugansk Media Centre – Ukraine’s  57th Brigade servicemen lay down arms, cross to LPR side
					





					lug-info.com


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> Soooooooo, who's surrendering to who these days?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia's 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade recon platoon surrenders to Ukraine's army
> 
> 
> The servicemen gave up and their commander claimed they never thought they were going to war
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 112.international
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Lugansk Media Centre – Ukraine’s  57th Brigade servicemen lay down arms, cross to LPR side
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> lug-info.com


capturing a recce platoon would certainly take out the eyes and ears in that sector for the Russians. It is starting to sound like Ukraine is giving russia a bit of a black eye. While Russia's elite forces have made great strides, it sounds like their regular forces might be struggling.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> capturing a recce platoon would certainly take out the eyes and ears in that sector for the Russians. It is starting to sound like Ukraine is giving russia a bit of a black eye. While Russia's elite forces have made great strides, it sounds like their regular forces might be struggling.


The problem here is we are hearing a lot of micro. 

The Macro isnt looking as good.


----------



## Brad Sallows

Patience.  There is very little so far that is much better than ignorant breathless correspondents endlessly speculating over repeated sequences of mayhem during the start of Gulf War '91.


----------



## MilEME09

Russian Citizens Begin Anti-War Demonstrations in Moscow and Saint Petersburg
					

Footage coming out of Russia shows waning support for the war against Ukraine as thousands of citizens fill the streets in protest of Putin's conquest of aggression.




					funker530.com
				




Protests continue to grow in Russia, estimated 1400+ arrested, Russia doesn't like people towing the line of King Putin


EDIT:

Ukraines ambassador to the US, also is claiming the 74th Guards Motor Rifle brigade has surrendered, if true, an entire brigade off the field would be a huge victory for Ukraine. In the press conference she said troops told Ukrainians they didn't know they were even attacking ukraine until it was happening.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Brad Sallows said:


> Patience.  There is very little so far that is much better than ignorant breathless correspondents endlessly speculating over repeated sequences of mayhem during the start of Gulf War '91.


You're right about early reports, but the UKR MSM media I've seen have tended to quote officials, so I'll take that as a sliver above "reporting live seeing only 50 square feet around me" or "from the studio, it looks like".


----------



## OceanBonfire

Russian strike near hospital:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496873598153216005


----------



## daftandbarmy




----------



## Spencer100

The Daily Mail has tons of video and pictures.  I know its the Daily Mail.  But this is the most I seen in one source.  









						Putin's tanks roll into Ukraine over Belarus border amid full invasion
					

Russian forces have seized control of the Chernobyl power plant, 60 miles north of Kiev, with the condition of nuclear storage facilities 'unknown', officials in Kiev have said.




					www.dailymail.co.uk
				




Question:  Do you blow the bridges over the Dnieper? You lose half the country but what do you do?


----------



## Czech_pivo

Spencer100 said:


> The Daily Mail has tons of video and pictures.  I know its the Daily Mail.  But this is the most I seen in one source.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Putin's tanks roll into Ukraine over Belarus border amid full invasion
> 
> 
> Russian forces have seized control of the Chernobyl power plant, 60 miles north of Kiev, with the condition of nuclear storage facilities 'unknown', officials in Kiev have said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.dailymail.co.uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Question:  Do you blow the bridges over the Dnieper? You lose half the country but what do you do?


You blow those bridges and you've trapped all units on the east side - all heavy equipment is written off.


----------



## OceanBonfire

Of course FOX News defends Putin:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496716061521047556

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496670043496660997


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Altair said:


>



I don't believe this will be the COA taken;  it is the start of "the end" of Putin and the Motherland.  Nucs are political weapons.


----------



## MilEME09

Eye In The Sky said:


> I don't believe this will be the COA taken;  it is the start of "the end" of Putin and the Motherland.  Nucs are political weapons.


strategic nukes no, I do not put it past Putin right now to use tactical nukes, and localized NBC warfare.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> strategic nukes no, I do not put it past Putin right now to use tactical nukes, and localized NBC warfare.


His own people would gas him first.
   NATO etc has a semi viable Missile Defense Capability - Russia does not...


----------



## OceanBonfire

Messerschmitt said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-protest-arrests-1.6362938
> 
> 
> 
> Putin does not have his population backing.



About 1,400 detained:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496921301705007116

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496923272742588422


----------



## KevinB

OceanBonfire said:


> About 1,400 detained:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496921301705007116
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496923272742588422


But did he declare an Emergency?


----------



## Czech_pivo

Well Pakistan has definitely hitched its wagon to the China/Russia merry-go-round.  Those pics of Khan laying wreaths at Russian War Memorial and having lunch is Putin should NOT be forgotten.


----------



## Czech_pivo

OceanBonfire said:


> About 1,400 detained:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496921301705007116
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496923272742588422


And those numbers will only grow if the Ukrainians can make the Russians continue to bleed and hold out longer than a few days.  Have seen somewhere that the US thinks Kiev can hold for 96hrs, we are 20hrs in so far.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

MilEME09 said:


> strategic nukes no, I do not put it past Putin right now to use tactical nukes, and localized NBC warfare.



Those differences exist only in texts and studies.  Nuc is nuc and I don't think the Russian national command apparatus will push the button...they don't want to be on the receiving end of return fire on Soviet Russian soil.  I believe they know, in that battlespace, they are like a 14 year old learning to box, and the West is like 19 year old Mike Tyson.


----------



## FM07

Czech_pivo said:


> Well Pakistan has definitely hitched its wagon to the China/Russia merry-go-round.  Those pics of Khan laying wreaths at Russian War Memorial and having lunch is Putin should NOT be forgotten.


Khan certainly deserves his chair at today's axis of evil table.The Pakistanis have a lot to gain from the North-South gas pipeline.  Pakistan’s PM Khan meets Putin in Moscow amid escalating war


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> His own people would gas him first.
> NATO etc has a semi viable Missile Defense Capability - Russia does not...


How well does that work on hypersonic?


----------



## Altair

Eye In The Sky said:


> I don't believe this will be the COA taken;  it is the start of "the end" of Putin and the Motherland.  Nucs are political weapons.


If the west started war against Russia, and things go south, its MAD.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Altair said:


> If the west started war against Russia, and things go south, its MAD.



The West doesn't need nucs to take the Bear down.  

If the Soviets flip the switch, they're done.  Over.  They know it.  Even conventionally, they can only push so far.  That's a simple matter of geography.

Watching PowerPlay with the MND;  it was just stated that 3,400 troops is "almost a Battalion".


----------



## MilEME09

Romania's president has stated he intends to invoke article 4 of the NATO treaty, which mans more talk but could lead to more deployments to europe.


----------



## Blackadder1916

KevinB said:


> But did he declare an Emergency?



How can you tell the difference between a state of emergency and normal freedom of protest in Russia?

At least they haven't (yet) tried to openly assassinate any of the more well known protest leaders.  However, once they arrest them it is entirely possible that they will become despondent while in jail and commit suicide.


----------



## TacticalTea

OceanBonfire said:


> Of course FOX News defends Putin:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496716061521047556
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496670043496660997


TIL: Being called a racist is somehow worst than invading Europe.

Got it, thanks Fucker Carlson.


----------



## MilEME09

interesting note on the cyber front, Funker530(and others) are reporting on their facebook a cyberattack has taken down their webpage shortly after they began posting about Russian Casualties. Look's like Russia is trying to prevent information on losses from getting out.


----------



## dapaterson

Blackadder1916 said:


> At least they haven't (yet) tried to openly assassinate any of the more well known protest leaders.  However, once they arrest them it is entirely possible that they will become despondent while in jail and commit suicide.


I believe the technical term is "Pull an Epstein".


----------



## RangerRay

The Bread Guy said:


> ... not to mention "The Chat"
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> National Post
> 
> 
> Read latest breaking news, updates, and headlines. National Post offers information on latest national and international events & more.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nationalpost.com


A dressing down by Melanie Jolie. The Ambassador must be shaking in his boots!

My question is why is he still here and why are the Russian Embassy and Consulates still open?


----------



## Kirkhill

Exclusive: 'All hell broke loose' – Ukrainian soldiers on front line reveal how Russian invasion started
					

Troops manning the defences at Kramatorsk airbase describe moments of chaos as the attack came without warning




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## dangerboy

Message from the CDS about the situation.

CDS Message to the Defence Team regarding the Invasion of Ukraine


----------



## TacticalTea

OldSolduer said:


> MND quoted it herself. Troops going on standby


Source? I have no idea where you guys saw the MND speak.


----------



## dapaterson

Press conference was held at 1300 EST, with the PM, Deputy PM, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister of National Defence.  MND announced it then.


----------



## dapaterson

dangerboy said:


> Message from the CDS about the situation.
> 
> CDS Message to the Defence Team regarding the Invasion of Ukraine





> The world has just become a much more dangerous place, and we must do all that we can to stand as one and be ready.
> 
> General Wayne Eyre
> 
> Chief of the Defence Staff


----------



## dangerboy

TacticalTea said:


> Source? I have no idea where you guys saw the MND speak.


It is mentioned in this news article: 3,400 Canadian Armed Forces members ready to be deployed for Ukraine | News



> Following Thursday’s attack, Canadian Minister of Defence Anita Anand said that the country was ready to “make it clear to Putin that we stand with our allies and our partners in the face of Russian aggression and destabilization efforts,” and confirmed that 3,400 personnel were ready to help control the situation if deployment orders are issued.


----------



## MilEME09

dangerboy said:


> It is mentioned in this news article: 3,400 Canadian Armed Forces members ready to be deployed for Ukraine | News


it should be noted this is it sounds like this is additional personal, not the already announced 460. NATO will apparently be making an announcement tomorrow, could this be the return of 4 CMBG?


----------



## Fabius

I think the CDS's comments are a bit delayed. The strategic situation changed in 2014 and Canada was just slow to realize/accept that fact.


----------



## Kirkhill

I'm seeing articles like this one from the Telegraph that compare the numbers of Ukrainians to those of the Russians.   The Ukrainians are routinely found wanting.









						How Russia's vast military compares with Ukraine's compact army and Nato's forces
					

Vladimir Putin has moved enough military equipment into south-eastern Ukraine to overwhelm the capital




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				




I'm inclined to think a lot of people don't understand the basic rules of the game. 

The uniformed members of this site don't need this but I thought I would post it anyway. 


_principles of war_–
Selection and maintenance of the aim;
maintenance of morale; 
offensive action;
surprise;
security;
concentration of force;
economy of effort;
flexibility;
co-operation; and
administration.

I just wanted take a look at those two lines towards the end

               Concentration of Force
               Economy of Effort

The Telegraph report is that the Russia has 900,000 Active servicemen while Ukraine only has 209,000.  Also Russia has 2,000,000 Reserves while Ukraine only has 900,000.  Obviously Ukraine is drastically outnumbered.

But.

Ukraine's Force is concentrated in Ukraine.  Russia's Force is dispersed across Russia.

Russia has managed to amass a force of 150 to 200 thousand on Ukraine's borders.
It is facing 209,000 Active Ukrainians (with 7 years of training and motivation behind them thanks to Vlad)
It is also facing 900,000 Reservists - Ukrainians with active service behind them in the last few years, again thanks to Vlad.

So the fight is between 200,000 Russians that Vlad has ordered to be there against 1,109,000 Ukrainians, with experience, that want to be there.

It is true that Vlad could always activate the Russian Reserves, and direct a larger portion of his Active Force to Ukraine.  But then who would guard the rest of his borders and keep his unruly neighbours and citizens in line? Which reminds us of the requirements for Economy of Effort.

Economy of Effort - Don't use more than you have to.
Concentration of Force - Apply what you have with precision.

Vlad probably has a path to victory.
But it is by no means certain.


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> I'm seeing articles like this one from the Telegraph that compare the numbers of Ukrainians to those of the Russians.   The Ukrainians are routinely found wanting.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How Russia's vast military compares with Ukraine's compact army and Nato's forces
> 
> 
> Vladimir Putin has moved enough military equipment into south-eastern Ukraine to overwhelm the capital
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.telegraph.co.uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I'm inclined to think a lot of people don't understand the basic rules of the game.
> 
> The uniformed members of this site don't need this but I thought I would post it anyway.
> 
> 
> _principles of war_–
> Selection and maintenance of the aim;
> maintenance of morale; offensive action;
> surprise;
> security;
> concentration of force;
> economy of effort;
> flexibility;
> co-operation; and
> administration.
> 
> I just wanted take a look at those two lines towards the end
> 
> Concentration of Force
> Economy of Effort
> 
> The Telegraph report is that the Russia has 900,000 Active servicemen while Ukraine only has 209,000.  Also Russia has 2,000,000 Reserves while Ukraine only has 900,000.  Obviously Ukraine is drastically outnumbered.
> 
> But.
> 
> Ukraine's Force is concentrated in Ukraine.  Russia's Force is dispersed across Russia.
> 
> Russia has managed to amass a force of 150 to 200 thousand on Ukraine's borders.
> It is facing 209,000 Active Ukrainians (with 7 years of training and motivation behind them thanks to Vlad)
> It is also facing 900,000 Reservists - Ukrainians with active service behind them in the last few years, again thanks to Vlad.
> 
> So the fight is between 200,000 Russians that Vlad has ordered to be there against 1,109,000 Ukrainians, with experience, that want to be there.
> 
> It is true that Vlad could always activate the Russian Reserves, and direct a larger portion of his Active Force to Ukraine.  But then who would guard the rest of his borders and keep his unruly neighbours and citizens in line? Which reminds us of the requirements for Economy of Effort.
> 
> Economy of Effort - Don't use more than you have to.
> Concentration of Force - Apply what you have with precision.
> 
> Vlad probably has a path to victory.
> But it is by no means certain.


What would be truely beautiful is if Russian forces no only got their butt's kicked back to Russia, but if they got bloodied so badly that Ukraine counter attacked, re-took Crimea, and the separatist regions. Anything is possible, but you are right, just going by the forces on the ground in Ukraine, the defender has the numbers game on their side right away, but that will not make a differance if they do not have the equipment to use them effectively.


these first hours are delaying actions by Ukraine, they need to buy time for their reservists to be called up, equipped, organized and moved to the front, if they can pull that off, Russia will be out numbered.


----------



## SupersonicMax

Halifax Tar said:


> I'm hearing of anti war protests breaking out in Russia


I am sure Putin will enact the _Emergencies Act_.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

rmc_wannabe said:


> It might be a feint.
> 
> Go in light, get "captured", have justification to go in heavy to "rescue our valiant Comrades" and crush any further resistance.



Might also be fairly standard airborne/air mobile force employment.  Put in a smallish, light force to hold a piece of ground until follow-on forces link up?


----------



## Remius

SupersonicMax said:


> I am sure Putin will enact the _Emergencies Act_.


Good thing his motion goes to his desk for sign off.  Then to him for second sober thought and then to him for royal ascent.  Then 60 days from now he will be the inquiry. 

So efficient.


----------



## Good2Golf

Eye In The Sky said:


> Might also be fairly standard airborne/air mobile force employment.  Put in a smallish, light force to hold a piece of ground until follow-on forces link up?


…but if the link-up doesn’t occur, they’re done.


----------



## suffolkowner

Altair said:


> How well does that work on hypersonic?


For some reason the US doesn't seem to be as excited by hypersonics as others at least officially


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Altair said:


> How well does that work on hypersonic?



While it might defeat ground based system....how many do they have?  They were claiming 'successful testing' only last summer...range on the Zircov Zircon is....1000nm or km or so? 

Hyper is Mach 5? 

Great.  Pretty fast, range similar to TLAM.

Now, let's talk real power.









						Ohio-class SSBNs: The Best Missile Submarines Ever?
					

Designed in the 1970s, the Ohio-class are the largest submarines ever built for the U.S. Navy. They hold the power to destroy entire nations.




					www.19fortyfive.com
				






			Vanguard class Ballistic Missile Submarine SSBN - Royal Navy
		







						Le Triomphant Class Ballistic Missile Submarine | Military-Today.com
					

The Le Triomphant class is a new generation of ballistic missile submarines. Le Triomphant was laid down at Cherbourg in 1989, launched in 1994 and entered service in 1997. Six boats were planned but this was reduced to four after the end of the Cold War.



					www.military-today.com
				




Nuclear deterrence is still real, and still happening.  Beneath the waves and above them.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Good2Golf said:


> …but if the link-up doesn’t occur, they’re done.



Yup, then I suspect they'll have 60 days to submit a grievance to their CO, who will have 10 days to determine if s/he can act as the IA...each trooper would have to submit their own, individual grievance as 'mass' ones are not permissible...


----------



## KevinB

suffolkowner said:


> For some reason the US doesn't seem to be as excited by hypersonics as others at least officially


Hypersonic is Mach 5+ most of our AD Systems (THAAD and MEADS for example) are Mach 8+ thus hypersonic as well.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

TacticalTea said:


> Source? I have no idea where you guys saw the MND speak.



The MND also did a short piece on Power Play around 1700ish Atlantic Time, confirmed the numbers and spoke quickly about possible tasking which did not include 'combat'.


----------



## KevinB

Russia has apparently lost both of it's "cutting edge" SU-57 strike aircraft deployed into the Ukraine (they apparently have 2 others that where not deployed) -- one was so 'stealthy' that appears to have been shot down by a Vietnam era ZSU-23-4, the other to MANPADS.

A lot of websites with Russian casualties and video of systems being destroyed have been taken down by Cyber attacks.


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> Russia has apparently lost both of it's "cutting edge" SU-57 strike aircraft deployed into the Ukraine (they apparently have 2 others that where not deployed) -- one was so 'stealthy' that appears to have been shot down by a Vietnam era ZSU-23-4, the other to MANPADS.
> 
> A lot of websites with Russian casualties and video of systems being destroyed have been taken down by Cyber attacks.


have a source about the Su-57's?


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> have a source about the Su-57's?


Site it was one with video is now down -- I am looking for one that is still up and running.
  Was cell phone video near the gun position - by the way it came apart I don't think the Pilot knew he was being tracked.


----------



## suffolkowner

Fabius said:


> I think the CDS's comments are a bit delayed. The strategic situation changed in 2014 and Canada was just slow to realize/accept that fact.


I'm sure we'll take this opportunity to modernize our Armed Forces and fast track a F-35 decision and the Polaris and Aurora replacements both of which have only one effective choice. 

And we are going to send more troops over with no anti-tank or air defence capabilities. What a joke of a government we have


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> I'm sure we'll take this opportunity to modernize our Armed Forces and fast track a F-35 decision and the Polaris and Aurora replacements both of which have only one effective choice.
> 
> And we are going to send more troops over with no anti-tank or air defence capabilities. What a joke of a government we have


how serious they take things will be telling in the next federal budget, as well if they finally decide to get procurement in order


----------



## Eye In The Sky

KevinB said:


> one was so 'stealthy' that appears to have been shot down by a Vietnam era ZSU-23-4



For whatever reason, that makes me grin.


----------



## kev994

MilEME09 said:


> how serious they take things will be telling in the next federal budget, as well if they finally decide to get procurement in order


My money is on adding another layer of bureaucracy to track something and ‘speed things up’.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> how serious they take things will be telling in the next federal budget, as well if they finally decide to get procurement in order


We call this the Peace UnDividend...


----------



## KevinB

Eye In The Sky said:


> For whatever reason, that makes me grin.


My son came home from school today grinning about that too- he still wants to be a F-22 Pilot...
  You know there are a lot of F-22 and F-25 pilots circling the region just looking to be the first Ace in that type of plane if a Russian AC makes a wrong move.


----------



## daftandbarmy




----------



## KevinB

Videos show the first heavy fighting in the northeastern city of Sumy.
					






					www.nytimes.com
				



Video of some low light fighting going on - fairly sporadic shooting - but someone thing earlier has set some trees on fire - and some tracer fire going into the apartments can be seen at the end.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

My post was removed about the HAL, what the MON is doing etc.

It's open source info, people.  I'm not fackin' daft.









						Canada commits troops, sanctions Russia as Kremlin orders troops into Ukraine
					

Canada announced plans Tuesday to deploy hundreds of additional troops to eastern Europe and impose new sanctions against Russia as Western democracies rushed to respond to the deployment of Russian forces into Ukraine.




					www.cp24.com
				




Canada is sending an additional 460 troops to reinforce the NATO military alliance in eastern Europe, Trudeau said. That includes a 100-soldier artillery unit to Latvia, which will join 540 other Armed Forces members leading a NATO battlegroup in the Baltic state.

_*A Canadian frigate, the HMCS Halifax, and a CP-140 Aurora patrol plane are also being deployed to eastern Europe, with all the promised forces expected in theatre by the end of March.*_

The prime minister said the measures are intended to “reinforce our commitment to NATO and promote peace and security in the region.”

Picture below is from the CAF Operations FB Page;  HMCS Montreal participation in DM; an annual ASW exercise.


----------



## MilEME09

CNN is reporting Ukrainian forces are blowing bridges and a dam east of Kharkiv to prevent Russian reinforcements from getting to the area


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> My son came home from school today grinning about that too- he still wants to be a F-22 Pilot...
> You know there are a lot of F-22 and F-25 pilots circling the region just looking to be the first Ace in that type of plane if a Russian AC makes a wrong move.


Takes just one Russian plane making the same mistake that one Ukrainian plane made yesterday.

Another potential flashpoint for international military involvement: If Russia fucks with Tchernobyl (beyond just occupying the area), thus directly endangering the whole of Europe.


----------



## KevinB

TacticalTea said:


> Takes just one Russian plane making the same mistake that one Ukrainian plane made yesterday.
> 
> One potential flashpoint for international military involvement: If Russia fucks with Tchernobyl (beyond just occupying the area), thus directly endangering the whole of Europe.


The UKR plane was apparently battle damaged - and landed in Romania as it's home field wasn't viable -- I am sure the Romanians will have it back up speed in no time (or paint its registration info, camo etc on one of theirs) to get it back to the fight.


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Eye In The Sky said:


> My post was removed about the HAL, what the MON is doing etc.
> 
> It's open source info, people.  I'm not fackin' daft.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada commits troops, sanctions Russia as Kremlin orders troops into Ukraine
> 
> 
> Canada announced plans Tuesday to deploy hundreds of additional troops to eastern Europe and impose new sanctions against Russia as Western democracies rushed to respond to the deployment of Russian forces into Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cp24.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada is sending an additional 460 troops to reinforce the NATO military alliance in eastern Europe, Trudeau said. That includes a 100-soldier artillery unit to Latvia, which will join 540 other Armed Forces members leading a NATO battlegroup in the Baltic state.
> 
> _*A Canadian frigate, the HMCS Halifax, and a CP-140 Aurora patrol plane are also being deployed to eastern Europe, with all the promised forces expected in theatre by the end of March.*_
> 
> The prime minister said the measures are intended to “reinforce our commitment to NATO and promote peace and security in the region.”
> 
> Picture below is from the CAF Operations FB Page;  HMCS Montreal participation in DM; an annual ASW exercise.


We are just being very careful......it could possibly happen again, if we screw up we'd rather screw up on the side of caution.
Bruce


----------



## KevinB

Russian forces are meeting more resistance near Kyiv and Kharkiv than farther south, analysts say.
					






					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

Eye In The Sky said:


> My post was removed about the HAL, what the MON is doing etc.
> 
> It's open source info, people.  I'm not fackin' daft.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada commits troops, sanctions Russia as Kremlin orders troops into Ukraine
> 
> 
> Canada announced plans Tuesday to deploy hundreds of additional troops to eastern Europe and impose new sanctions against Russia as Western democracies rushed to respond to the deployment of Russian forces into Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cp24.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada is sending an additional 460 troops to reinforce the NATO military alliance in eastern Europe, Trudeau said. That includes a 100-soldier artillery unit to Latvia, which will join 540 other Armed Forces members leading a NATO battlegroup in the Baltic state.
> 
> _*A Canadian frigate, the HMCS Halifax, and a CP-140 Aurora patrol plane are also being deployed to eastern Europe, with all the promised forces expected in theatre by the end of March.*_
> 
> The prime minister said the measures are intended to “reinforce our commitment to NATO and promote peace and security in the region.”
> 
> Picture below is from the CAF Operations FB Page;  HMCS Montreal participation in DM; an annual ASW exercise.


And MON is not even close to the Black Sea, never has been since leaving on the 28th of Jan - again public knowledge, previously posted.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> We are just being very careful......it could possibly happen again, if we screw up we'd rather screw up on the side of caution.
> Bruce



Copy and I get that.  Sorry, I should have posted the link and pic the first time.  I'll remember next time and not make your folks' job harder.

I don't agree with "how much" stuff the govt releases open source, like saying the Aurora currently operating out of Kef will be cut over to this new task.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Seeing some chatter about this:

Anonymous has taken down http://RT.com

No idea if it’s true or not. Would rather have them screw with the Russian railway switching system for the next week or so, but hey what do I know.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> Do they get Gulag's 2.0 or just dust off the old ones and reuse?


Yes


----------



## Czech_pivo

OSINT UKRAINE (@OSINT_Ukraine) Tweeted:
🇷🇺Anti-war protest in Russia's St. Petersburg earlier today. https://t.co/nZy8dSTlxs


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496986849595858944


----------



## The Bread Guy

OceanBonfire said:


> Of course FOX News defends Putin ...


.... and RUS state media (Russia Today:  where they cover everything but what's happening in Russia today) happy to amplify & "share".


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> Seeing some chatter about this:
> 
> Anonymous has taken down http://RT.com
> 
> No idea if it’s true or not. Would rather have them screw with the Russian railway switching system for the next week or so, but hey what do I know.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496965766435926039


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Czech_pivo said:


> OSINT UKRAINE (@OSINT_Ukraine) Tweeted:
> 🇷🇺Anti-war protest in Russia's St. Petersburg earlier today. https://t.co/nZy8dSTlxs
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496986849595858944



Fair size group;  anyone confirm what building they are in front of?


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496989634085097472
first 24h have been busy if true


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496989634085097472
> first 24h have been busy if true


Some more #'s from UKR media








						57 Ukrainians dead, 169 wounded due to Russian invasion
					

The data is correct as of late February 24




					112.international


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496989634085097472
> first 24h have been busy if true


At least 2 more Helo's, and 4 fixed wing than that is out there OS.


----------



## blacktriangle

Czech_pivo said:


> Seeing some chatter about this:
> 
> Anonymous has taken down http://RT.com
> 
> No idea if it’s true or not. Would rather have them screw with the Russian railway switching system for the next week or so, but hey what do I know.


Yeah, looks legit. No real loss there. 

It's one thing to go after adversary disinformation platforms, but targeting critical infrastructure becomes a slippery slope.


----------



## KevinB

blacktriangle said:


> Yeah, looks legit. No real loss there.
> 
> It's one thing to go after adversary disinformation platforms, but targeting critical infrastructure becomes a slippery slope.


I mean the Russians would never of that right


----------



## The Bread Guy

"Key Takeaways" @ end of Day 1 by the Institute for the Study of War:


> Ukrainian forces are successfully slowing Russian offensives on all axes of advance other than a Russian breakout from the Crimean Peninsula. Russian failure to ground the Ukrainian air force or cripple Ukrainian command and control is likely enabling these initial Ukrainian successes.
> Ukrainian forces are contesting the Hostomel military airport, 20 km northwest of Kyiv, as of 9:30 pm local time.[3] Russian VDV (Airborne) troops landed at Hostomel and have also failed to capture the Boryspil airport southeast of Kyiv. Ukraine’s contestation of the airport deprives Russian forces of any location to airlift forces onto Kyiv’s western flank overnight.
> Russian forces are rapidly advancing north from Crimea, securing Kherson city. Their deepest penetration to date is about 60 kilometers.
> Russian forces are advancing on Kyiv from Belarus on both sides of the Dnipro River. Russian forces secured the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone (on the west bank) at 7:30 pm local time, but Ukrainian forces have slowed Russian advances east of the Dnipro at Chernihiv.
> Russian forces likely seek to cut off Ukrainian troops on the line of contact in Donbas using an envelopment behind the Ukrainian front lines through Luhansk Oblast. Russian frontal assaults have taken little territory in Donetsk and Luhansk at this time.


Full report (4 pages) also attached in case link doesn't work.


----------



## blacktriangle

KevinB said:


> I mean the Russians would never of that right


No argument there, but...

I'm more concerned about non-state actors escalating geopolitical tensions. There are few things in life I believe should be left to government - but operations against critical infrastructure is definitely one of them. That goes well beyond hacktivism, and can have unintended consequences.


----------



## Kat Stevens

blacktriangle said:


> No argument there, but...
> 
> I'm more concerned about non-state actors escalating geopolitical tensions. There are few things in life I believe should be left to government - but operations against critical infrastructure is definitely one of them. That goes well beyond hacktivism, and can have unintended consequences.


They should be doing something useful like closing every automated valve that is normally open, and opening every one that is normally closed in Russian petrochemical installations.


----------



## Furniture

Kat Stevens said:


> They should be doing something useful like closing every automated valve that is normally open, and opening every one that is normally closed in Russian petrochemical installations.


Killing Russian civilians in industrial sabotage is likely to make everything worse, not better.


----------



## MilEME09

Furniture said:


> Killing Russian civilians in industrial sabotage is likely to make everything worse, not better.


Have better luck just shutting down rail and power networks in western Russia and Belarus


----------



## Kat Stevens

Furniture said:


> Killing Russian civilians in industrial sabotage is likely to make everything worse, not better.


I don't recall saying kill anyone. Besides, Ivan doesn't seem too averse to killing Ukrainian civilians.


----------



## KevinB

Kat Stevens said:


> I don't recall saying kill anyone.


I'm fine with it - I've yet to see any completing reason to change my philosophy of "the only good Russian, is a dead Russian..."


----------



## Furniture

Kat Stevens said:


> I don't recall saying kill anyone. Besides, Ivan doesn't seem too averse to killing Ukrainian civilians.


I'd imagine the valves that are off, are off for a reason, same with the ones that are closed... Mess with vital safety systems, and killing people is not an unlikely outcome.


----------



## KevinB

Furniture said:


> I'd imagine the valves that are off, are off for a reason, same with the ones that are closed... Mess with vital safety systems, and killing people is not an unlikely outcome.


Again, I fail to see the major loss with that outcome.


----------



## KevinB

Eye In The Sky said:


> Fair size group;  anyone confirm what building they are in front of?


I surfed Google Earth and dropped into street view on several likely spots -- one of the most likely was the "National Museum of Vodka" but the building colors where off from what I could tell.









						Massive protests erupted in Putin's hometown of St. Petersburg as Russians voice opposition to war in Ukraine
					

Videos posted to Twitter show a sea of people in St. Petersburg demonstrating against Russia's invasion into Ukraine.




					www.businessinsider.com
				




Palace Square apparently - from the news feed on Twitter, I had looked there and the color looked wrong - but...


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496987322553876480
If this is true, this is more evidence that airborne operations are a absolute hell to pull off. 

Also amazing that the Ukrainian air force is still up and running.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

I've been searching Google Images...can't seem to nail it down.

There is this post:  



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496896683401224197


----------



## Blackadder1916

Eye In The Sky said:


> Fair size group;  anyone confirm what building they are in front of?



I think it's "Great Gostiny Dvor".  It's a shopping centre on Nevsky Prospekt several blocks down from Palace Square.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Blackadder1916 said:


> I think it's "Great Gostiny Dvor".  It's a shopping centre on Nevsky Prospekt several blocks down from Palace Square.



I think you've nailed it.  Thanks!


----------



## MilEME09

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496987322553876480
> If this is true, this is more evidence that airborne operations are a absolute hell to pull off.
> 
> Also amazing that the Ukrainian air force is still up and running.


I think the bear may be finding out it's claws aren't as sharp as it thought


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497024504455139330
Konotop under siege.

I guess that's a move to cut off Chernihiv, and hold both sides of the Dnieper river as they push on Kiev


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> I think the bear may be finding out it's claws aren't as sharp as it thought


Well, advance elements, pathfinders, not being supported by the para drop because of effective AD in the area is a success story for the west. 

This goes down very differently if the entire VDV is allowed to get into the fight.


----------



## YZT580

Eye In The Sky said:


> For whatever reason, that makes me grin.


Those who rely on technology... it was a vintage 60's radar system that nailed the first F117 to be shot down over Yugoslavia


----------



## The Bread Guy

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496987322553876480
> If this is true, this is more evidence that airborne operations are a absolute hell to pull off.
> 
> Also amazing that the Ukrainian air force is still up and running.


Also if this is true, naughty, naughty boy ...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496984468141522945


----------



## suffolkowner

Altair said:


> Well, advance elements, pathfinders, not being supported by the para drop because of effective AD in the area is a success story for the west.
> 
> This goes down very differently if the entire VDV is allowed to get into the fight.


Ukraine should have been more ready especially for the push out of Crimea. But so far they look to be holding. Not sure why the Russians would hold the VDV back, should have been a huge advantage


----------



## Eye In The Sky

YZT580 said:


> Those who rely on technology... it was a vintage 60's radar system that nailed the first F117 to be shot down over Yugoslavia



Ok....neat but not grinning at that one.


----------



## The Bread Guy

suffolkowner said:


> Ukraine should have been more ready especially for the push out of Crimea. But so far they look to be holding. Not sure why the Russians would hold the VDV back, should have been a huge advantage


I stand to be corrected, but in the case of Hostomel, if they didn't capture the airport, as all sorts of OS is saying, could be a bit ... tetchy for big honkin planes fulla stuff coming into a spot where they know you're coming.  Or do you mean ACROSS the board "pour 'em in"?


----------



## Altair

suffolkowner said:


> Ukraine should have been more ready especially for the push out of Crimea. But so far they look to be holding. Not sure why the Russians would hold the VDV back, should have been a huge advantage


Imagine 5-10 out of 18-20 Il-76 going down on approach?


----------



## Altair

But I feel like this story could have been written about Crete, or Market garden, or the Suez.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, the clever rebel info-machine (links to Google English translation) is getting Afghan vets in the new statelets to try to get UKR tps to chill and "stop resisting" ...


> The chairman of the primary organization of the Union of Afghan Veterans of the Luhansk region, Sergei Shonin, appealed to the "Afghans" of Ukraine with an appeal to convince the military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to stop useless resistance in order to prevent mass bloodshed.
> 
> "The Union of Afghan Veterans of the Luhansk region appealed to the "Afghans" of Ukraine in order to call on the military to stop useless resistance in order to prevent mass bloodshed not only among the military, but also among the civilian population," he said ...


----------



## suffolkowner

The Bread Guy said:


> I stand to be corrected, but in the case of Hostomel, if they didn't capture the airport, as all sorts of OS is saying, could be a bit ... tetchy for big honkin planes fulla stuff coming into a spot where they know you're coming.  Or do you mean ACROSS the board "pour 'em in"?





Altair said:


> Imagine 5-10 out of 18-20 Il-76 going down on approach?


That's kinda the job of the VDV and supposed to be their best so I wonder about the lack of a full on commitment. I didn't think Russia had enough troops earmarked for this without them. We need more information but perhaps Ukraines AD performed better than expected and Russia's worse?


----------



## Eye In The Sky

suffolkowner said:


> That's kinda the job of the VDV and supposed to be their best so I wonder about the lack of a full on commitment. I didn't think Russia had enough troops earmarked for this without them. We need more information but perhaps Ukraines AD performed better than expected and Russia's worse?



Maybe the air corridor wasn't clear?  Maybe the never properly secured the airfield and weren't prepared to do a mass drop?  I read a book about the 82nd (Urgent Fury) back in the late 80s after Grenade, and the concept of "walking off the ramp" and "jumping" was discussed...I recall the message being "landing forces is always preferred to putting sticks in the breeze".

Combat estimates aren't combat guarantees;  maybe we'll see some night drops, or a larger mech push as a 2nd COA?


----------



## Altair

suffolkowner said:


> That's kinda the job of the VDV and supposed to be their best so I wonder about the lack of a full on commitment. I didn't think Russia had enough troops earmarked for this without them. We need more information but perhaps Ukraines AD performed better than expected and Russia's worse?


A combination of the west pouring in AD and AT weapons for weeks, Kiev having a QRF around the capital and Russia not doing a good enough job taking out Ukraine AD. Although to be fair, enough manpads in an area is going to make that a very hard thing to do.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Altair said:


> A combination of the west pouring in AD and AT weapons for weeks, Kiev having a QRF around the capital and Russia not doing a good enough job taking out Ukraine AD. Although to be fair, enough manpads in an area are going to make that a very hard to do.


They are excellent psychological weapons IMO, because they could be anywhere and everywhere and no where.  So you just assume the people on the ground below you all have one...

There is also the obvious "kinetic" benefits to them...


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496987322553876480
> If this is true, this is more evidence that airborne operations are a absolute hell to pull off.
> 
> Also amazing that the Ukrainian air force is still up and running.


What I take from this is the following: 
1) the Ukrainians took off the table from the Russians some elite, highly trained/motivated troops and supporting helos 
2) the Ukrainians held their own and more so, bolstering morale in that area of operations
3) the Russians tipped their hands in what they are trying to do, hopefully allowing the Ukrainians to counter this going forward
4) there are some significant number of dead, wounded, captured Russians from this
5) doubt/fear of anti-air may creep a bit farther into helo pilots heads, putting off their game plan


----------



## MilEME09

Legends being born in the fog of war, true or not it will boost morale


----------



## KevinB

Eye In The Sky said:


> Maybe the air corridor wasn't clear?  Maybe the never properly secured the airfield and weren't prepared to do a mass drop?  I read a book about the 82nd (Urgent Fury) back in the late 80s after Grenade, and the concept of "walking off the ramp" and "jumping" was discussed...I recall the message being "landing forces is always preferred to putting sticks in the breeze".
> 
> Combat estimates aren't combat guarantees;  maybe we'll see some night drops, or a larger mech push as a 2nd COA?


Air Corridor is probably not clear.  
  I doubt the Russians could do a night drop without losing more than a day jump.  

Keep in mind it’s OSI we are feeding radar etc info to the UKR - would be terrible if some AD or UKR AF splashed a bunch of IL’s on a jump run, just terrible /s


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> Imagine 5-10 out of 18-20 Il-76 going down on approach?


That would be a nice way to start the day off.


----------



## Spencer100

MilEME09 said:


> View attachment 68966
> 
> Legends being born in the fog of war, true or not it will boost morale


Ace.....when was the last ace in the world?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Spencer100 said:


> Ace.....when was the last ace in the world?


Vietnam I think.

Definitely the first European one since WWII.

Edit to add: Correction. Iran-Iraq War.


----------



## RaceAddict

Spencer100 said:


> Ace.....when was the last ace in the world?



Iran-Iraq war... an F-14 pilot I believe.

(Could be entirely wrong... my other guess would have been an Israeli pilot.)


----------



## TacticalTea

Not just an ace, though, we're talking about Ace in a day, here!


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Air Corridor is probably not clear.
> I doubt the Russians could do a night drop without losing more than a day jump.
> 
> Keep in mind it’s OSI we are feeding radar etc info to the UKR - would be terrible if some AD or UKR AF splashed a bunch of IL’s on a jump run, just terrible /s


There are going to be lessons learned from this war, and i swear, based on the history of airborne ops, that element of war is going to go the way of the battleship.

Helos and planes are too vulnerable to mobile AA, and lightly armed soldiers on the ground are too vulnerable if they cannot be reinforced.


----------



## Spencer100

Also some reports the AN-225 is destroyed.....boo Russia.


----------



## TacticalTea

Russian jet shot down over Kyiv
-Ukrainian Govt


----------



## Fabius

Eytan Stibbe, IAF became an ace in 1982 over the Beqqa Valley. Shot down 4 Syria jets in one sortie plus a fifth on an earlier sortie. Not in one day though. 😎


----------



## SupersonicMax

Spencer100 said:


> Ace.....when was the last ace in the world?





RaceAddict said:


> Iran-Iraq war... an F-14 pilot I believe.
> 
> (Could be entirely wrong... my other guess would have been an Israeli pilot.)


Jalil Zandi, an Iranian F-14 pilot.  Ironically, the most successful Tomcat driver…. On the US side, the last pilot coming close to being an Ace is “Rico” Rodrigez, an F-15C pilot.  He shot down a MiG-29 (Maneuver kill) and a MiG-23 (AIM-7 kill) during the Gulf War, and a MiG-29 during Op Allied Force (AIM-120 kill).  Cool fact: SOF recovered the HUD tapes of the MiG-23 he shot down and extracted the last recorded frame: a small dot (an F-15 in the distance) with a big AIM-7 pointed directly at the camera.  I met hm once and he is a living legend.


----------



## MilEME09

TacticalTea said:


> View attachment 68968Russian jet shot down over Kyiv
> -Ukrainian Govt


Interior ministry is saying a Ukrainian Su-27 was shot down over Kyiv, don't know if this is the sane scene


----------



## TacticalTea

Altair said:


> There are going to be lessons learned from this war, and i swear, based on the history of airborne ops, that element of war is going to go the way of the battleship.
> 
> Helos and planes are too vulnerable to mobile AA, and lightly armed soldiers on the ground are too vulnerable if they cannot be reinforced.


Do you think airbases will maintain Jumping Clubs, just like Naval Bases maintain sailing clubs?



MilEME09 said:


> Interior ministry is saying a Ukrainian Su-27 was shot down over Kyiv, don't know if this is the sane scene


I'm sure it is. It's not everyday you get to shoot down a Russian jet over your capital!
...
Well.


----------



## MilEME09

CNN is reporting the Ukrainian government is reporting an estimate of Russian casualties of about 800, of course this being a defensive war, of course this might be scaled up to show they are winning.


----------



## armrdsoul77




----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> CNN is reporting the Ukrainian government is reporting an estimate of Russian casualties of about 800, of course this being a defensive war, of course this might be scaled up to show they are winning.


USA said Russia would lose 10k soldiers.

12.5 days of fighting?


----------



## Messerschmitt

Altair said:


> The problem here is we are hearing a lot of micro.
> 
> The Macro isnt looking as good.


Everybody knows it's all about APM


----------



## FM07

Air raids just blared in Kiev during a live report, officials are saying an attack is imminent. Source Al Jazeera.


----------



## Blackadder1916

FJAG said:


> Make's you wonder how a former KGB civil servant he can afford a $100 million yacht.




Maybe it's routine KGB retirement thing.  A bit of an interesting spin on another yacht supposedly owned by a former comrade of Vlad.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496600826655408128


----------



## Colin Parkinson

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496854216488665090


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496710912648044548

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496712329345617920
Well now....Ukraine may win this one on a technicality


----------



## Altair

CNN camera crew head to Hostomel Airport to talk to the Ukrainian soldiers who have taken it back. 

Turns out the rumors of the Russian VDV being out of action were somewhat exaggerated.


----------



## Czech_pivo

A nice clip from @girkingirkin on Twitter from a few minutes ago.
Shows a number of towed Russian arty taken out. These guys definitely had a bad day.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497129210015625218


----------



## Czech_pivo

Well Twitter just suspended @OSTINT_Ukraine for some reason. Not sure why, didn’t find their stuff to violate any rules.


----------



## The Bread Guy

On a somewhat lighter note, in the midst of any crisis, there always seems to be _someone_ seeing an opportunity ...








						Man switches Tinder location to Ukraine to find 'hotties who need green card'
					

A TikTok user shared a video of himself claiming he changed his Tinder location to Ukraine in order to match with “hotties that need a green card.” The disturbing video comes amid President Vladimir Putin officially declaring war on Ukraine on Thursday, leaving dozens of people dead. He's since...




					www.indy100.com
				




Meanwhile, end of Day 1 map (source)

And a couple of UK MoD end-of-day summaries

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496935262487818247

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497015621082624003


----------



## Czech_pivo

This could go either way - very successful in stopping the Russians in urban areas (think Budapest 1956) or horribly wrong for civilians.

Kyiv officials ask residents to make petrol bombs as Russians close in on capital​It instructed residents to either stay at home or “make Molotov cocktails,” a kind of petrol bomb, to “neutralize the occupier.”

SOURCE: CNBC news


----------



## KevinB

These are the planes the US is using to watch Russia’s military movements
					

The Army’s first manned spy plane and an Air Force “nuke sniffer” have been among the surveillance aircraft watching Russia’s military movements during the Kremlin’s planning and execution of its latest invasion of Ukraine.




					www.stripes.com


----------



## KevinB

Photos: What Russia’s invasion of Ukraine looks like on the ground
					

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began, citizens began taking shelter or withdrawing cash, while others took what they could carry and fled.




					taskandpurpose.com


----------



## KevinB

‘We need as much Stinger and anti-tank weapons as possible,’ says Ukraine’s defense minister
					

Ukraine’s defense minister made a direct plea to the U.S. Congress on Thursday to send his besieged nation anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles through Poland to help it repel Russia’s military assault on Ukraine.




					www.defensenews.com


----------



## RangerRay

Altair said:


> CNN camera crew head to Hostomel Airport to talk to the Ukrainian soldiers who have taken it back.
> 
> Turns out the rumors of the Russian VDV being out of action were somewhat exaggerated.


I’m not sure if it means anything, but I saw that footage some time before seeing that the Ukrainians beat them back. 

But who knows at this point?


----------



## Retired AF Guy

RangerRay said:


> I’m not sure if it means anything, but I saw that footage some time before seeing that the Ukrainians beat them back.
> 
> But who knows at this point?


I also saw one report that said the Russians had taken the airport. Sounds like a battle of conflicting reports.


----------



## McG

Expect both sides will inflate their successes while amplifying transgressions of the other. You won't get an accurate picture if your sources are the invaders and the defenders themselves.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Been listening to various commentators this morning on the Ukrainian situation and couple of them have pointed out that Ukraine is very rich in manufacturing and natural resources.  So maybe behind all the Russian posturing there is an ulterior motive for the invasion?


----------



## MilEME09

Retired AF Guy said:


> Been listening to various commentators this morning on the Ukrainian situation and couple of them have pointed out that Ukraine is very rich in manufacturing and natural resources.  So maybe behind all the Russian posturing there is an ulterior motive for the invasion?


Well if you listen to putuns speech, it sure sounds like he wants a new Russian empire


----------



## ueo

Dumb question No 432- Just who has or might have tac/ low yeild Nuc munitions? Russia for sure, but what was left in place post USSR?


----------



## KevinB

ueo said:


> Dumb question No 432- Just who has or might have tac/ low yeild Nuc munitions? Russia for sure, but what was left in place post USSR?


Ukraine turned over their Nuclear weapons as did the other separate Former USSR republics to Russia (and Ukraine probably has regretted that ever since).   

So anything that goes like that is an RU thing. 
- at least in that area.  

Obviously NATO and other nuke powers have some of those assets, but only Russia when it comes to current parties to the conflict.


----------



## Remius

ueo said:


> Dumb question No 432- Just who has or might have tac/ low yeild Nuc munitions? Russia for sure, but what was left in place post USSR?


Ukraine got rid of all its nuclear arsenal post USSR.


----------



## The Bread Guy

McG said:


> Expect both sides will inflate their successes while amplifying transgressions of the other. You won't get an accurate picture if your sources are the invaders and the defenders themselves.


Yup, but still, #NothingHasEverythingButEverythingHasSomething, hence the need to go all over for info & read some tea leaves, too.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Ukraine turned over their Nuclear weapons as did the other separate Former USSR republics to Russia (and Ukraine probably has *regretted that ever since*) ....


Yup - that's why they were wanting to open up the Budapest agreement that made that happen, leading to RUS & fellow travellers amplifying it into "UKR wants to put nukes on our borders!" narrative.  

Which could also be (at least one reason, anyway) why RUS wants to hang on to Chornobyl.  Harder to make nukes if you don't have access to nuke-y stuff like reactors (even if they're not on).  Also, RUS has a good "nice reactor you have here - shame if anything ever happened to it" bargaining chip if they can hold it.


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> Also, RUS has a good "nice reactor you have here - shame if anything ever happened to it" bargaining chip if they can hold it.


That would be suicidal for putin, any major radioactive event would blow back to Russia, and potentially invoke article 5.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Meanwhile, in Hollywood:

Celebrities Go Full Cringe Responding to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Not qualified to speak on international politics? Not a problem!​

When a major military conflict preceded by a global pandemic breaks out on the world stage, people don’t want to seek reassurance from major political leaders, or learn the truth from vaunted media institutions. They want to hear from the a guy who made his name filming rich housewives and the woman who played a bitchy high-schooler on a in the CW reboot.

Over the past 24 hours, celebrities have come out in full force to weigh in on Putin’s invasion of the Ukraine. And while one would think that the disastrous reaction to the star-studded 2020 cover version of “Imagine” would have dissuaded them from weighing in on social media, one would be wrong.

Leading the charge was Andy Cohen, head of Bravo and dishy host of _Watch What Happens Live. _This morning, Cohen took a break from playing Barbies with drunk, rich white women to weigh in on the invasion. In a true demonstration of the principles of synergy, Cohen posted an Instagram Story that managed to combine one buzzy news story (the viral ascendance of the word game Wordle) with another (the shellbombing of millions of innocent civilians by a power-hungry despot):


*








						Celebrities Go Full Cringe Responding to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine
					

Not qualified to speak on international politics? Not a problem!




					www.rollingstone.com
				



*​


----------



## Quirky

daftandbarmy said:


> Meanwhile, in Hollywood:
> 
> Celebrities Go Full Cringe Responding to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
> 
> Not qualified to speak on international politics? Not a problem!​


----------



## MilEME09

Heavy fighting in Kherson in the south to control the bridge over the river. According to CNN Russia briefly got a foot hold on the west side but was pushed back. Russian forces are on the northern outskirts of Kyiv, possibly entering the city. 

The longer Ukraine holds, the more reserves they can get to the fight, but Russia has not even moved in some of their best units. The 1st Guards Tank Army is still on the Russian side of the border near Kharkiv


----------



## FM07

Ukraine says two commercial ships hit by Russian missiles near Odessa port
					

Ukraine said Russian warships shelled a Moldovan-flagged chemical tanker and a Panamanian-flagged cargo ship due to load grain near Odessa port in the Black Sea on Friday, one day after Russia began a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.




					www.reuters.com
				



  Ivans indiscriminately attacking neutral shipping now.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> That would be suicidal for putin, any major radioactive event would blow back to Russia, and potentially invoke article 5.


But bits of Europe, trying to steal UKR away (in his narrative), would also likely get a taste of the action, too.

Jealous abusive ex's have been known to be less-than-fully rational in these situations ....


----------



## Remius

FM07 said:


> Ukraine says two commercial ships hit by Russian missiles near Odessa port
> 
> 
> Ukraine said Russian warships shelled a Moldovan-flagged chemical tanker and a Panamanian-flagged cargo ship due to load grain near Odessa port in the Black Sea on Friday, one day after Russia began a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ivans indiscriminately attacking neutral shipping now.


I just saw a video of an armoured vehicle crushing a civilian car with someone in it on purpose.  So yeah, wouldn’t shock me.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> The longer Ukraine holds, the more reserves they can get to the fight, but Russia has not even moved in some of their best units.* The 1st Guards Tank Army is still on the Russian side of the border near Kharkiv*


At least one OS analysis says 1 GTA is in the fight, but everyone's guess is good these days ...


> *... Russian ground forces are advancing on four primary axes ... Kharkiv axis: *Russian forces, including confirmed elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army, are conducting a frontal assault on Kharkiv from northeastern Ukraine. Ukrainian forces are temporarily halting Russian advances but Russian forces will likely enter Kharkiv before the end of the day ...


----------



## FM07

Remius said:


> I just saw a video of an armoured vehicle crushing a civilian car with someone in it on purpose.  So yeah, wouldn’t shock me.


I saw that too, thank God that man got out alive and relatively unscathed. Meanwhile Putin commends his troops 'professionalism.'


----------



## Czech_pivo

I'm going out on a limb here, with there being so many unknowns but the true fight for Ukraine might be occurring in the south.  It could be here that dictates the ability of the Ukrainians to continue to resist.
The bridges of the Ukraine may be the key to resisting or taking the centre/eastern half of the country.  
Reports are saying that the Russians have moved up from the Crimea and are assaulting Kherson or have taken Kherson or that fighting occurred to the east of the city.  For any/all of these to have occurred the Russians would have had to take the key bridge to the east of the city.



I have not found anything mentioning any attacks on the second bridge located further east of Kherson but I have seen reports of the Russians being in Melitopol and reports of them being towards Zaporizhzhia to the north of Melitopol. Zaporizhzhia is the location of the last 3 bridges to the west bank of the Dneiper River. 



If the Russians take this city, all Ukrainian troops between Melitopol - Mariupol - Donetsk - Pavlohrod are  boxed on 3 sides and have their only escape route to the west of the Dniper running through Dnipro to the north-west. Air-assault that city and hold those bridges and the Ukrainians are toast in the entire south-south-east. 



The land to the west of Zaporizhzhia is mostly open farm land, low population, few cities of any size and no rivers/obstacles. Nice tank country.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> I'm going out on a limb here, with there being so many unknowns but the true fight for Ukraine might be occurring in the south.  It could be here that dictates the ability of the Ukrainians to continue to resist.
> The bridges of the Ukraine may be the key to resisting or taking the centre/eastern half of the country.
> Reports are saying that the Russians have moved up from the Crimea and are assaulting Kherson or have taken Kherson or that fighting occurred to the east of the city.  For any/all of these to have occurred the Russians would have had to take the key bridge to the east of the city.
> 
> View attachment 68978
> 
> I have not found anything mentioning any attacks on the second bridge located further east of Kherson but I have seen reports of the Russians being in Melitopol and reports of them being towards Zaporizhzhia to the north of Melitopol. Zaporizhzhia is the location of the last 3 bridges to the west bank of the Dneiper River.
> 
> View attachment 68979
> 
> If the Russians take this city, all Ukrainian troops between Melitopol - Mariupol - Donetsk - Pavlohrod are  boxed on 3 sides and have their only escape route to the west of the Dniper running through Dnipro to the north-west. Air-assault that city and hold those bridges and the Ukrainians are toast in the entire south-south-east.
> 
> View attachment 68980
> 
> The land to the west of Zaporizhzhia is mostly open farm land, low population, few cities of any size and no rivers/obstacles. Nice tank country.


It was concerning that Russia achieved a breakthrough on their first day near the Crimea. Once that happened Ukraine needed to strip other fronts of troops to cover the breakout and avoid being flanked and cut from their supply lines. The Russians moving fast in the south will only help them in the north and the east.


----------



## Altair

Retired AF Guy said:


> Been listening to various commentators this morning on the Ukrainian situation and couple of them have pointed out that Ukraine is very rich in manufacturing and natural resources.  So maybe behind all the Russian posturing there is an ulterior motive for the invasion?


Again, I don't see Russia hanging around after and occupying. 

But I do expect whoever is in charge of Ukraine after Russia is done with it to further integrate their economy into Russia


----------



## MilEME09

Altair said:


> It was concerning that Russia achieved a breakthrough on their first day near the Crimea. Once that happened Ukraine needed to strip other fronts of troops to cover the breakout and avoid being flanked and cut from their supply lines. The Russians moving fast in the south will only help them in the north and the east.


Makes you wonder where all their naval infantry brigades are, they had some of the best equipment.


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497171785657331714
"China and Russia hate one another"


----------



## The Bread Guy

FM07 said:


> I saw that too, thank God that man got out alive and relatively unscathed. Meanwhile Putin commends his troops 'professionalism.'


"Isolated incidents, brother ..."


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> Makes you wonder where all their naval infantry brigades are, they had some of the best equipment.


If their airborne operation exposed  vulnerabilities, what would a naval invasion do?


----------



## MilEME09

Altair said:


> If their airborne operation expressed vulnerabilities, what would a naval invasion do?


Their naval infantry have an entire tank brigade of T-64 and T84s, I am curious where in the fight for Kherson they are.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> Their naval infantry have an entire tank brigade of T-64 and T84s, I am curious where in the fight for Khersin they are.


Ah, seen. Seen nothing of it on open source media.


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> Yup - that's why they were wanting to open up the Budapest agreement that made that happen, leading to RUS & fellow travellers amplifying it into "UKR wants to put nukes on our borders!" narrative.
> 
> Which could also be (at least one reason, anyway) why RUS wants to hang on to Chornobyl.  Harder to make nukes if you don't have access to nuke-y stuff like reactors (even if they're not on).  Also, RUS has a good "nice reactor you have here - shame if anything ever happened to it" bargaining chip if they can hold it.



Which is related to the narrative of fears that has dominated discourse in this area as in every area of public discussion and debate.

We have created a fearful world.  One that has been trained to take counsel of its fears.  One where, if there is nothing of which to be fearful, fearsome things are manufactured.

And those fears can then be exploited to drive change.  And, to preserve the status quo.

All in the name of hope.  Hope that somebody knows what the hell is happening and will keep us safe from his fears.


That is why I think the current dialectic is, in my mind defined by Saul Alinsky and James Graham, Marquis of Montrose.  Alinsky described how to create and exploit fear.  Montrose, in my view, offered the counter.

Alinsky 

"The threat is usually more terrifying than the thing itself. "

Montrose  

"He either fears his fate too much,
    Or his deserts are small,
That puts it not unto the touch
    To win or lose it all."

We have come to fear uncertainty.  We have lost the love of gambling.  Of seeing opportunity in uncertainty.  And fearing failure.

Our ancestors lived in very different mindsets.  They couldn't afford not to gamble.  Everything was a risk.  And even failure offered hope.

Humph. Sorry. Doing it again amn't I?


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497214326213652480
this is good. If true.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497214423756197889
This is bad. What happens if Kiev falls, and the Ukrainian government falls? Do troops in the field continue to fight? Does command and control fall apart?


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Altair said:


> This is bad. What happens if Kiev falls, and the Ukrainian government falls? Do troops in the field continue to fight? Does command and control fall apart?


I'd imagine this was not unexpected and everyone down to a person has "what to do in case of" orders.


----------



## Old Sweat

One scenario was for the Russians to capture Kiev and replace the existing government with pro-Russian puppets. These folks would then declare a ceasefire and order their forces to lay down their arms. Whether this order would be obeyed by all the forces is another matter. Perhaps the statement this morning from Moscow inviting Ukraine to send a delegation for discussions in Belarus may be part of this scheme, or just something that can later be put forward as an example of Russian lack of aggressive intentions remains to be seen.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> I'd imagine this was not unexpected and everyone down to a person has "what to do in case of" orders.


By now it should be clear - to us, to the Russians and to the Ukrainian population - Ukrainians are willing to fight, kill and die for their country.  If Kiev falls, I think the battles will continue until they go completely under. 
They need to buy time to bring in the Reserves to the fight.


----------



## Kat Stevens

Old Sweat said:


> One scenario was for the Russians to capture Kiev and replace the existing government with pro-Russian puppets. These folks would then declare a ceasefire and order their forces to lay down their arms. Whether this order would be obeyed by all the forces is another matter. Perhaps the statement this morning from Moscow inviting Ukraine to send a delegation for discussions in Belarus may be part of this scheme, or just something that can later be put forward as an example of Russian lack of aggressive intentions remains to be seen.


I think the "lack of aggressive intention" schtick  went out the window about 36 hours ago.


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> At least one OS analysis says 1 GTA is in the fight, but everyone's guess is good these days ...





> *... Russian ground forces are advancing on four primary axes ... Kharkiv axis: *Russian forces, including confirmed elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army, are conducting a frontal assault on Kharkiv from northeastern Ukraine. Ukrainian forces are temporarily halting Russian advances but Russian forces will likely enter Kharkiv before the end of the day ...



The upper limit of estimates for Russian forces on the ground in the Ukraine region is something like 190,000.

4 axes of advance and 190,000 troops means up to 45,000 available for each one if each one were exploited equally.  But it is unlikely that they will.  
The book solution would be to advance down all of them as if you meant to attack down each of them. 
One or more of them may be feints and merely intended to district from the main effort.
The others may represent a co-ordinated effort to secure one objective from different directions or they may be alternative routes to different acceptable outcomes.  In all cases the first day efforts may not represent the next day's efforts, or even the end game.  

At all events Vlad has only got a limited number of reliable troops at his disposal and it is unlikely, in my opinion, that he will have committed all of them to this opening effort.  

He seems to be doing all the expected things in all the expected places but, in my opinion, from the information available, there seems to be a tentativeness to the efforts so far.  Now, that could be intentional or it could be the result of tentative troops, or the nature of an Advance to Contact effort or it could be as basic a problem as Operation Market Garden faced in 1944.  The ground is forcing the troops to keep to the highways.   

There was a videoclip from Belarus by a woman recording video from a civilian car on a highway in the middle of flat, open fields in Belarus.  The highway was blocked and converted into what appeared to be a logistical landing zone for helicopters (no troops were getting into or out of the helicopters).  The use of the highway rather than the fields could simply be a means to keep the helicopters clean and protect their running gear.  Alternately they may be on the road, rather than the field because the ground in the Spring is simply too soft to support them.

That might equally apply to the lands of the Donbas in the south east but would most likely be an issue in the Pripyat Marshes around Chernobyl, and the northern approaches to Kiev.

And if the axes of advance are being canalized along the roadways then the Russians are facing similar problems to XXX Corps on the advance to Arnhem and the Canadian Army faced in the Dutch Polders and around the Scheldt.

Reminder - pure speculation by an amateur based on poor information available to him at this time.  The reality is known only to the Ukrainian and Russian soldiers trading fire at this time.


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> Again, I don't see Russia hanging around after and occupying.
> 
> But I do expect whoever is in charge of Ukraine after Russia is done with it to further integrate their economy into Russia



I agree that Vlad won't want to hang around but will the Ukrainians give him an alternative.  Keep in mind that this latest round of unpleasantness started with Vlad trying to find puppets and keep them in power over the vigorous objections of the locals.

I don't think decapitating a regime and declaring mission accomplished is going to get the job done for him.   And he doesn't have the luxury of quitting and going home.

To paraphrase an old song, he's here because he's here because he's here...


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497171785657331714
> "China and Russia hate one another"



They do. 

So did Hitler and Stalin.
So did Stalin and Churchill.


----------



## The Bread Guy

A ballsy allegation from Russia's Communist Party (which has been happy to fuel the "they should be back in our fold" fires) media ....








						Putin wants to talk to Ukrainian military, rather than the neo-Nazi gang
					

"Take power in your own hands! It looks like it will be easier for us to come to an agreement with you, rather than with this gang of drug addicts and neo-Nazis




					english.pravda.ru


----------



## Kirkhill

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> I'd imagine this was not unexpected and everyone down to a person has "what to do in case of" orders.



Lviv seems a likely Step Up or Alternate.


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> A ballsy allegation from Russia's Communist Party (which has been happy to fuel the "they should be back in our fold" fires) media ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Putin wants to talk to Ukrainian military, rather than the neo-Nazi gang
> 
> 
> "Take power in your own hands! It looks like it will be easier for us to come to an agreement with you, rather than with this gang of drug addicts and neo-Nazis
> 
> 
> 
> 
> english.pravda.ru



Well it is always worth a try.


----------



## Spencer100

Well Ukrainian PR machine making heroes and martyrs. Soldier takes himself and the bridge out. 

But if true its shows determination. 

Ukrainian marine blows himself up with bridge to hold off Russians


----------



## OldSolduer

Spencer100 said:


> Well Ukrainian PR machine making heroes and martyrs. Soldier takes himself and the bridge out.
> 
> But if true its shows determination.
> 
> Ukrainian marine blows himself up with bridge to hold off Russians



Horatio at the bridge.


----------



## OceanBonfire

> NATO has activated its NATO Response Force, marking the first time the alliance has activated the potentially 40,000-person force for “a deterrence and defence" role, according to a NATO spokesperson. This means that the 8,500 American troops put on heightened alert in late January for this mission could soon be ordered to Europe.
> 
> The decision follows a meeting of NATO ministers Friday morning in Brussels.
> 
> To be activated, the 30 members of NATO must all agree to activate the force, which is under the command of Gen. Told Wolters, the Supreme Allied Commander of NATO.











						Russia-Ukraine updates: US to ban Russian carriers from its airspace
					

Live updates on the Russia-Ukraine crisis.




					abcnews.go.com
				












						NATO chief says alliance deploying parts of quick response force over Russian invasion - National | Globalnews.ca
					

The NATO chief said the alliance is resolute in imposing consequences on Russia as well as Belarus, which has supported the Russian invasion of Ukraine.




					globalnews.ca


----------



## Spencer100

OldSolduer said:


> Horatio at the bridge.


Then out spoke brave Horatius, the Captain of the Gate:
"To every man upon this earth, death cometh soon or late;
And how can man die better than facing fearful odds,
For the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods,"


----------



## Altair

Kirkhill said:


> They do.
> 
> So did Hitler and Stalin.
> So did Stalin and Churchill.


Well, they seem to have a really good working relationship for people who hate one another.


----------



## MilEME09

OceanBonfire said:


> Russia-Ukraine updates: US to ban Russian carriers from its airspace
> 
> 
> Live updates on the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> abcnews.go.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> NATO chief says alliance deploying parts of quick response force over Russian invasion - National | Globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> The NATO chief said the alliance is resolute in imposing consequences on Russia as well as Belarus, which has supported the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> globalnews.ca


Well thats 3400 Canadians troops heading to Europe then


----------



## Fabius

Not necessarily. Canada has no forces committed to the VJTF as far as I am tracking and NATO has not committed to the deployment of the entire NRF only elements there of, no idea if any Cdn elements will be moved forward or only have their readiness increased in some undefined way.


----------



## MilEME09

Fabius said:


> Not necessarily. Canada has no forces committed to the VJTF as far as I am tracking and NATO has not committed to the deployment of the entire NRF only elements there of, no idea if any Cdn elements will be moved forward or only have their readiness increased in some undefined way.


At yesterday's press conference the defense Minister said 3400 troops were on stand by for NATOs rapid response force, should it be required, Sounds like it just became required.


----------



## blacktriangle

Blackadder1916 said:


> I think it's "Great Gostiny Dvor".  It's a shopping centre on Nevsky Prospekt several blocks down from Palace Square.


For anyone interested, there still appears to be an elevated security forces presence at that location.  Livestream is avail from the metro station down the street.


----------



## Remius

blacktriangle said:


> For anyone interested, there still appears to be an elevated security forces presence at that location.  Livestream is avail from the metro station down the street.


Shopping mall?  Hmn.  May be a threat to that will get the Italians to grow a spine.


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> Well, they seem to have a really good working relationship for people who hate one another.


True that.

Although Stalin seemed to be something of a serial monogamist when it came to relationships.


----------



## lenaitch

Defiant last stand of UK border guard post:









						On Snake Island, Ukrainian border guards’ fierce stand against Russians becomes rallying cry
					

Tiny island outpost in Black Sea obliterated by warship after soldiers defiantly respond with a profanity to demand they surrender




					www.theglobeandmail.com


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> Makes you wonder where all their naval infantry brigades are, they had some of the best equipment.


Reports (the Guardian, open source) of amphibious landing at Mariupol


----------



## Altair

Also reports of Russian ground forces on the outskirts of Kiev on both sides of the Dnieper.


----------



## Spencer100

Over/Under on the 96 hour clock?  

Looks like they have some AA left.

Kiev about to be encircled?

How well the local militias perform?


----------



## Altair

Spencer100 said:


> Over/Under on the 96 hour clock?


The fog of war makes it hard to tell.


Spencer100 said:


> Looks like they have some AA left.


Yeah, but I fear Russia has a lot of planes left.


Spencer100 said:


> Kiev about to be encircled?


They are to the north, but how fast can they strike west and east and link up south?


Spencer100 said:


> How well the local militias perform?


How well do local militias ever perform?


----------



## Czech_pivo

Spencer100 said:


> Over/Under on the 96 hour clock?
> 
> Looks like they have some AA left.
> 
> Kiev about to be encircled?
> 
> How well the local militias perform?


Don't make the assumption that if Kiev is encircled that the gig is up.  If the C&C is still up and running and the resupply is working it will come down to the effectiveness of the remaining units and their willingness to fight.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> Don't make the assumption that if Kiev is encircled that the gig is up.  If the C&C is still up and running and the resupply is working it will come down to the effectiveness of the remaining units and their willingness to fight.


The problem is that while Ukraine has been playing the best game of defense that they can, we haven't seen them take back territory yet. 

So if Kiev is encircled, its not a matter so much of if Kiev will fall, but when Kiev will fall.  Unless the Ukrainians can break said encirclement, but again, we haven't seen many effective counteroffensives from the Ukrainians


----------



## Spencer100

Czech_pivo said:


> Don't make the assumption that if Kiev is encircled that the gig is up.  If the C&C is still up and running and the resupply is working it will come down to the effectiveness of the remaining units and their willingness to fight.


I think the idea is if they get Kiev with or without the President they will have the Presidential Palace.  They declare a new non "fascist" government.   Call it a win. Then just a policing action.  Then flood the country with bribes.


----------



## dapaterson

And the sanctions keep on coming.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497254180108570633


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Encircle Kiev, demand an orderly surrender and if none is forthcoming, pull an Aleppo and absolutely level it with overwhelming amounts of fires.

Also, quite clear the Russians were using conscripts as their initial echelon for cannon fodder because why commit your best troops to getting hit with PGMs?  Better to have them wasted on conscripts and fix the enemy in position so they can be mopped up by the elite forces.


----------



## kev994

Altair said:


> The problem is that while Ukraine has been playing the best game of defense that they can, we haven't seen them take back territory yet.
> 
> So if Kiev is encircled, its not a matter so much of if Kiev will fall, but when Kiev will fall.  Unless the Ukrainians can break said encirclement, but again, we haven't seen many effective counteroffensives from the Ukrainians


How long before the Ruskies lose interest if the Ukrainians switch to Guerilla warfare a la Afghanistan? Seems to have been pretty effective there for the last couple occupations.


----------



## KevinB

dapaterson said:


> And the sanctions keep on coming.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497254180108570633


Don’t follow the link to read it on Twitter.  I got my account suspended from that.  Not even posting…


----------



## Altair

kev994 said:


> How long before the Ruskies lose interest if the Ukrainians switch to Guerilla warfare a la Afghanistan? Seems to have been pretty effective there for the last couple occupations.


Again, I don't foresee a long occupation by Russian forces. They will secure the country, set up a strong man, have said strong man build a Ukrainian army and have Ukrainian guerillas fight the Ukrainian army with Russia providing air support.


----------



## Altair

dapaterson said:


> And the sanctions keep on coming.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497254180108570633




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497290129949478915


----------



## Spencer100

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497290129949478915


Oh too bad.  That would have gone a long way to end the war.    It may have been the hardest sanction yet!!!


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

KevinB said:


> Don’t follow the link to read it on Twitter.  I got my account suspended from that.  Not even posting…


Pornhub specifically tells you to keep your hands off of the girls....


----------



## Colin Parkinson

KevinB said:


> Don’t follow the link to read it on Twitter.  I got my account suspended from that.  Not even posting…


Your pornhub account?


----------



## Remius

dapaterson said:


> And the sanctions keep on coming.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497254180108570633


That is funny.  But I bet it’s effective.  It lets the Russian people know what the whole world is thinking about this.  More of this, for everything.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Altair said:


> How well do local militias ever perform?


In 2014, when UKR's military wasn't at the same level as it is today, a lot of oligarch/entrepreneur-funded militias helped keep the occupied areas as small as they ended up being before the latest RUS push.  Some of these guys got absorbed into UKR's military, but I suspect the hate-force'll be strong enough to see more enthusiastic resistance.  Will it be enough?  Will the oligarchs back them or have they packed their bags?  Time will tell ...

Meanwhile, on that guy's car that got run over by a tank/AFV ...








						Driver Pulled From Car Crushed By Armored Vehicle In Kyiv
					

A driver was pulled from the wreckage of his car after it was crushed by an armored vehicle on the outskirts of Kyiv as Russian forces pushed into the Ukrainian capital on February 25.




					www.rferl.org
				



... some of the neighbours continue to help as they can ...








						Poland hands over ammunition to Ukraine – Defense Minister
					

Poland has handed over ammunition to Ukraine, Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak has said.




					en.interfax.com.ua
				











						Estonia to provide Ukraine with additional batch of Javelins, ammunition – media
					

Estonia will send additional military assistance to Ukraine in the form of Javelin anti-tank missiles and anti-aircraft ammunition, Secretary General of the Estonian Ministry of Defense Kusti Salm said, according to err.ee.




					en.interfax.com.ua
				



... and hopes one of the friends helps more








						Zelensky says discusses defense assistance, antiwar coalition, Russia sanctions with Biden
					

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he discussed the tightening of sanctions on Russia, defense assistance, and the functioning of an antiwar coalition amid Russia's activities with regard to Ukraine with United States President Joe Biden.




					en.interfax.com.ua


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> The problem is that while Ukraine has been playing the best game of defense that they can, we haven't seen them take back territory yet.
> 
> So if Kiev is encircled, its not a matter so much of if Kiev will fall, but when Kiev will fall.  Unless the Ukrainians can break said encirclement, but again, we haven't seen many effective counteroffensives from the Ukrainians


It would be interesting to what happens then, the Russians hold pockets of the country and the Ukrainians other pockets.  That would force the Russians to 'govern' those areas under their control - food, water, health care, shelter, safety - 190k troops is not going to cut it.  That makes them look like an 'occupier' (which there are) and not someone doing a regime change.

Russians in an urban area, occupying, will result in Russian KIA and a resentful population.

If the Ukrainians are still holding out on Monday I suggest that you start seeing arms coming across the Polish border and possibly the Romanian/Slovak as well.  Send along another 1-2k stingers and NLAW's and the Russians will some more heat.


----------



## TacticalTea

It's not much... In fact in concrete terms it's nothing at all.

But it still feels good to see your provincial government trying to push things in the right direction.


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR's Def Min appeals to RUS moms (in Ukrainian) - wonder how many'll see/read this, though ....


> ... I want to address the residents of the Russian Federation.
> 
> Especially - to the wives, mothers, girlfriends of Russian soldiers and officers.
> 
> In a few days of intervention in Ukraine, as many Russian troops will be destroyed as in two Chechen wars. Thousands. Thousands.
> 
> The ruler of Russia has become a murderer. The killer is not only Ukrainians, but also Russians.
> 
> We know that now very young boys are being urgently taken into the army all over Russia. That they are preparing to transfer recruits without minimum combat skills. That contractors are not told where they are actually going. And what awaits them.
> 
> Hide your loved ones if they are dear to you. Don't send them to certain death! They will be killed from every window in every Ukrainian city.
> 
> Take to the streets. Demand to stop the war. Demand to withdraw the Russian army from Ukraine.
> 
> Do not be afraid! The truth is on your side. Now you can still change everything so as not to regret later.
> 
> When all information about the Kremlin's war crimes is revealed, your loved ones will be very grateful to you.


Screen capture of English translation also attached in case link doesn't work.


----------



## The Bread Guy

VERY early (less than 10 minutes) reports from pro-UKR media

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497319714057592832We'll see ...


----------



## Kat Stevens

OPERATION VALKYRE v2.0?


----------



## Remius

The Bread Guy said:


> VERY early (less than 10 minutes) reports from pro-UKR media
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497319714057592832We'll see ...


Interesting because the US just put personal sanctions on Putin.

Biden just spoke with the UKR president as well.


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> VERY early (less than 10 minutes) reports from pro-UKR media
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497319714057592832We'll see ...


Even if its to buy time to allow the Reserves to continue their call up and positioning. To allow the weapons from Poland and Estonia to be distributed, to give troops a chance to sleep, eat, mourn their dead comrades before things start up again.


----------



## Remius

If he meets him in Minsk he’s not coming back.


----------



## MilEME09

It also could buy time to evacuate the government from Kyiv, reestablish a front line, reorg and prepare


----------



## Remius

We’ve seen what a Russian cease fires look like lol.


----------



## The Bread Guy

The Bread Guy said:


> VERY early (less than 10 minutes) reports from pro-UKR media
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497319714057592832We'll see ...


More from UKR media quoting a spokesperson from the president's office








						Consultations underway on venue and time of negotiations with Russia - Nykyforov
					

Ukraine is ready to talk about a ceasefire and peace, and consultations are underway on the venue and time of the negotiation process with Russia. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Czech_pivo

Remius said:


> If he meets him in Minsk he’s not coming back.


Just like Alexander Dubcek,  the Czech who started the changes in Czechoslovakia that led to Prague Spring.

the Soviet Union and its Warsaw Pact allies invaded the country the night of August 20–21. Dubček and five other Presidium members were seized and taken to Moscow, where the Soviets wrested major concessions from them. On his return to Prague Dubček gave an emotional address to his countrymen, requesting their cooperation in the curtailment of his reforms.

History does repeat itself, over and over again and again.  The names/places change but the events are relived again and again.


----------



## Remius

Czech_pivo said:


> Just like Alexander Dubcek,  the Czech who started the changes in Czechoslovakia that led to Prague Spring.
> 
> the Soviet Union and its Warsaw Pact allies invaded the country the night of August 20–21. Dubček and five other Presidium members were seized and taken to Moscow, where the Soviets wrested major concessions from them. On his return to Prague Dubček gave an emotional address to his countrymen, requesting their cooperation in the curtailment of his reforms.
> 
> History does repeat itself, over and over again and again.  The names/places change but the events are relived again and again.


The Russians won’t take him.  the Belarusians will and Putin will shrug and say he respects their “ independence “ in this matter.


----------



## MilEME09

They can't kill him at this point, to many see him as the defiant last stand of a free Ukraine, kill him and he becomes a martyr for the cause of a free Ukraine


----------



## The Bread Guy

Tsk, tsk, tsk -- naughty, naughty hackers ....

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497299847350833157


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> Tsk, tsk, tsk -- naughty, naughty hackers ....
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497299847350833157


Could be an intelligence coup depending in the information. Now him about the hack and fund all of putins assets


----------



## Remius

MilEME09 said:


> They can't kill him at this point, to many see him as the defiant last stand of a free Ukraine, kill him and he becomes a martyr for the cause of a free Ukraine


Why kill him when you can make him a permanent guest.


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> The problem is that while Ukraine has been playing the best game of defense that they can, we haven't seen them take back territory yet.
> 
> So if Kiev is encircled, its not a matter so much of if Kiev will fall, but when Kiev will fall.  Unless the Ukrainians can break said encirclement, but again, we haven't seen many effective counteroffensives from the Ukrainians



Man, you do a lot of fearing.
The ball's in play!




From Old Solduer's Daily Mail posting about the modern day Horatio.

Take a look at the average depth of penetration 3 days of fighting.
Some places previously reported leaning are now reported hold.

Yes there are a lot of incursions but there is a lot of territory left to secure (and don't forget to remove Eastern Moldova, Crimea and Donbas from Vlad's gains.  He already held them on the 22nd.  They don't supply a useful measure of his troops successes since that date.

Ukraine, is a big place.  He is securing some border towns and has launched some interior demonstrations but he has a long way to go.  The problem for Kiev is it is effectively close enough to the border to  be considered a vulnerable border town.  Fortunate for them they have other ones.  Much closer to Poland than Russia.


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> The problem is that while Ukraine has been playing the best game of defense that they can, we haven't seen them take back territory yet.
> 
> So if Kiev is encircled, its not a matter so much of if Kiev will fall, but when Kiev will fall.  Unless the Ukrainians can break said encirclement, but again, we haven't seen many effective counteroffensives from the Ukrainians



It is a bit early in the game to be wasting troops retaking ground when you can use them to remove Vlad's attackers from the board first.  

Use up his bullets, shells, missiles, guns, tanks, helos, aircraft and men first.  The more the Ukrainians can eat up now the easier their recovery will be.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Yup.   Retrograde ops have a purpose…


----------



## Kirkhill

dapaterson said:


> And the sanctions keep on coming.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497254180108570633



Oh no! Not the Wankers!  Spare them!


----------



## Eye In The Sky

повага









						Heroic Ukrainian soldier blows himself up on bridge to prevent Russian advance
					

Ukrainian soldier Vitaly Skakun Volodymyrovych has been hailed as a hero for blowing himself up to destroy Henichesk bridge in an effort to stop Russian tanks from invading his country.




					nypost.com


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497338480061526018

Usual caveats on sources.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Prepare for battle...


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Remius said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497338480061526018
> 
> Usual caveats on sources.


Why is this a surprise?  They offered a transition of power in exchange for an orderly surrender.  

If that isn't forthcoming, well the other option is a prolonged siege to break the will of the people to resist.  

It's medieval warfare with modern weaponry.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Why is this a surprise?  They offered a transition of power in exchange for an orderly surrender.
> 
> If that isn't forthcoming, well the other option is a prolonged siege to break the will of the people to resist.
> 
> It's medieval warfare with modern weaponry.



The Machiavelli in me hopes that they do go completely mental and cause huge numbers of civilian casualties, unnecessarily.

Then NATO can be authorized by the UN to intervene under Chapter VI and VII (I think?)....


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Why is this a surprise?  They offered a transition of power in exchange for an orderly surrender.
> 
> If that isn't forthcoming, well the other option is a prolonged siege to break the will of the people to resist.
> 
> It's medieval warfare (as it has always been) with modern weaponry.




FTFY 




> Archaeologically speaking, the earliest battle evidence from the British Isles comes from the Neolithic or New Stone Age, when the farmers were first competing for limited resources. At Crickley Hill in Gloucestershire and Hambledon Hill in Dorset, the earthen ramparts of two settlements were attacked, some time around 3300 BC, and their defences partially levelled.







__





						When Was The First Battle In Britain? | HistoryExtra
					

The earliest written evidence for conflict in Britain comes from the testimony of a certain Roman general



					www.historyextra.com


----------



## Jarnhamar

daftandbarmy said:


> Prepare for battle...
> 
> View attachment 68997



You mean he didn't go into hiding? Funny that.


----------



## Kirkhill

Jarnhamar said:


> You mean he didn't go into hiding? Funny that.



Didn't even need to get his hair cut.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Jarnhamar said:


> You mean he didn't go into hiding? Funny that.


 well so far it’s just been air and ground attacks. No reports of honking and bouncy castles…yet.


----------



## dapaterson

Unconfirmed reports of a RUS IL-76 carrying paratroopers being shot down by UKR AD.


----------



## Remius

dapaterson said:


> Unconfirmed reports of a RUS IL-76 carrying paratroopers being shot down by UKR AD.


Saw that as well.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Utterly horrific if it's hitting a city

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496949962168586241


----------



## TacticalTea

Colin Parkinson said:


> Utterly horrific if it's hitting a city
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496949962168586241


It is. 
I saw footage of the rockets hitting the ground in an urban area earlier.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Today's round up from the Institute for the Study of War

OP edit to add other highlights mentioned elsewhere in this thread:  Hostomel airfield back in RUS hands (but cratered)


> The Ukrainian general staff reported Russian VDV (airborne) troops redeployed from Belarus to the *east *bank of the Dnipro River due to damage to the Hostomel military airport on the western bank, now in Russian hands after Ukrainian forces withdrew sometime early on February 25.[9] Russian forces failed to secure Hostomel airport by air assault and appear to have taken it only when mechanized units from Belarus arrived. Ukrainian defenders appear to have damaged the runway enough to make it unusable, preventing Russian forces from airlifting troops directly onto Kyiv’s western flank and causing Russian forces to reprioritize the eastern axis of advance.


... and maybe some misunderstanding re:  amphib assault @ Mariupol as of mid-Friday (25 Feb) afternoon


> ISW cannot confirm any Russian amphibious landings as of 3:00 pm EST. Several Western sources misreported a quote from an anonymous US official that there are indications of Russia’s capability to conduct an amphibious assault west of Mariupol with thousands of troops as meaning a landing had already occurred.[28] Russia may wait until forces from Crimea have fully secured crossings over the Dnipro River or gotten closer to Odesa before attempting to seize Odesa by air and sea.



General overview highlights ...


> Russian forces entered the outskirts of Kyiv on the west bank of the Dnipro on February 25. Russian sabotage groups in civilian clothes are reportedly active in downtown Kyiv.
> Russian forces have so far failed to enter Kyiv’s eastern outskirts. Ukrainian forces have successfully slowed Russian troops, which have temporarily abandoned the failed attempt to take the city of Chernihiv and are instead bypassing it.
> Elements of the Russian 76th VDV (Airborne) division have concentrated in southeastern Belarus likely for use along the Chernihiv-bypass axis toward Kyiv in the next 24 hours.
> Russian forces will likely envelop Kharkhiv in the next 24 hours after failing to enter the city through frontal assaults on February 24.
> Russian forces have achieved little success on frontal assaults or envelopments against Ukrainian forces in Donbas but may not have intended to do more than pin Ukrainian forces in the east.
> North of Crimea, Russian forces fully captured Kherson and are likely on the verge of seizing Melitopol in the east. Unconfirmed reports indicate that Russian forces had bypassed Kherson earlier and headed directly for Mykolaiv and Odessa.
> Russian forces may be assembling in Stolin, Belarus, to open a new line of advance against Rivne in western Ukraine.





> *Immediate items to watch*
> 
> Social media users observed a Russian armored column assembling in Stolin, Belarus, on February 25.[29] These forces could potentially conduct a new line of advance against Rivne in western Ukraine.
> Russian Naval Infantry have not yet conducted amphibious landings but retain the capability to do so against the Odesa or the Azov Sea coasts or both.
> Russian forces continue to refrain from using their likely full spectrum of air and missile capabilities. The Ukrainian air force also remains active. Russian operations will likely steadily wear down Ukrainian air capabilities and eventually take the Ukrainian air force out of the fight.
> Russian forces have not yet attempted the decapitation strike several analysts and outlets have forecasted and may attempt to do so in the near future.
> Russia has sufficient conventional military power to reinforce each of its current axes of advance and overpower the conventional Ukrainian forces defending them.




Also attached in case link doesn't work.


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496870638388142088
This will age well…


----------



## MilEME09

So when are we going to start talking about plain clothes Russian troops acting to sabotage Kiev, that's against the laws of armed conflict if I recall.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Remius said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496870638388142088
> This will age well…


Sure was goofy of Putin to try and drum up support by accusing his opposition of being nazis. Bad guys always try to dehumanize people.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> So when are we going to start talking about plain clothes Russian troops acting to sabotage Kiev, that's against the laws of armed conflict if I recall.


We should do something about it. 

Sanctions or something.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

The Bread Guy said:


> Today's round up from the Institute for the Study of War
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 69000
> Also attached in case link doesn't work.





> Russian forces have achieved little success on frontal assaults or envelopments against Ukrainian forces in Donbas but may not have intended to do more than pin Ukrainian forces in the east.



Like I said earlier, my feeling was opening thrusts were to fix the Ukrainians in place.  This was accomplished using conscripts, etc.

The Russians will bypass/surround cities then shell the crap out of them.


----------



## Altair

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Like I said earlier, my feeling was opening thrusts were to fix the Ukrainians in place.  This was accomplished using conscripts, etc.
> 
> The Russians will bypass/surround cities then shell the crap out of them.


Massive pincer movement?


----------



## KevinB

Jarnhamar said:


> Sure was goofy of Putin to try and drum up support by accusing his opposition of being nazis. Bad guys always try to dehumanize people.


Yes more odd when the UKR Leader is Jewish...
   I wonder when the IDF is going to arrive, I'm only partially joking...


----------



## KevinB

Remius said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496870638388142088
> This will age well…


Maybe you can drop him on China...


----------



## MilEME09

Meanwhile Kyiv mayor, former heavy weight champion, and millionaire seen preparing to defend the city.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

MilEME09 said:


> So when are we going to start talking about plain clothes Russian troops acting to sabotage Kiev, that's against the laws of armed conflict if I recall.



Ya.  Good thing the Allies didn’t do that in WWII…


----------



## Infanteer

MilEME09 said:


> Meanwhile Kyiv mayor, former heavy weight champion, and millionaire seen preparing to defend the city.


The picture is from a year or two ago, but I don't doubt that he is out there.


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> So when are we going to start talking about plain clothes Russian troops acting to sabotage Kiev, that's against the laws of armed conflict if I recall.


Is it really? All I seem to recall is that they're not protected by the LOAC, but not that their action would be prohibited.


----------



## MilEME09

TacticalTea said:


> Is it really? All I seem to recall is that they're not protected by the LOAC, but not that their action would be prohibited.


Right, had to refresh me self


----------



## RangerRay

Former president Petro Poroshenko has grabbed a Kalashnikov and joined the territorial battalions. 









						Video: Former Ukrainian president armed in Kyiv | CNN
					

Former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko speaks to CNN from the streets of Ukraine as the Russian military closes in on Kyiv.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## MilEME09

RangerRay said:


> Former president Petro Poroshenko has grabbed a Kalashnikov and joined the territorial battalions.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Video: Former Ukrainian president armed in Kyiv | CNN
> 
> 
> Former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko speaks to CNN from the streets of Ukraine as the Russian military closes in on Kyiv.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com


When your former friend who you kept in power grabs an AK to fight your invasion, you really gotta ask your self, am  I being as assh*le?


----------



## kev994

MilEME09 said:


> Right, had to refresh me self


You’re not allowed to wear the other country’s uniform/flag (Hague)


----------



## RangerRay

MilEME09 said:


> When your former friend who you kept in power grabs an AK to fight your invasion, you really gotta ask your self, am  I being as assh*le?


I believe Poroshenko was the first  “post-Russophile” president after Viktor Yanukovych was ousted.


----------



## MilEME09

kev994 said:


> You’re not allowed to wear the other country’s uniform/flag (Hague)


so cant do this?


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/t1g8w5


----------



## kev994

MilEME09 said:


> so cant do this?
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/t1g8w5


Nope, definitely a war crime. Pretty serious one at that.
Edit 
Here’s a bunch of references, if you scroll down to some of the older ones there pretty serious about it, ie POW status not applicable to those caught doing this. Reference


----------



## Jarnhamar

RangerRay said:


> Former president Petro Poroshenko has grabbed a Kalashnikov and joined the territorial battalions.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Video: Former Ukrainian president armed in Kyiv | CNN
> 
> 
> Former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko speaks to CNN from the streets of Ukraine as the Russian military closes in on Kyiv.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com



Easy to do when it's only tanks and paratroopers and not trucks.


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> So when are we going to start talking about plain clothes Russian troops acting to sabotage Kiev, that's against the laws of armed conflict if I recall.


If Putin was not anti-law, that might matter…


----------



## Kirkhill

Colin Parkinson said:


> Utterly horrific if it's hitting a city
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496949962168586241


On the plus side

It kind of gives the lie to an earlier report I saw claiming the Russians had taken Kharkiv.

I hope those Ukrainian shelters are deep.


----------



## MilEME09

now NATO can't no fly zone all of Ukraine without flashing with Russia, but what about a humanitarian corridor? let's say 100km from the polish border is now a NATO protected humanitarian corridor. Lviv is within that, evacuate Ukrainian government to Lviv, check mate Russia.


----------



## kev994

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496710912648044548
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496712329345617920
> Well now....Ukraine may win this one on a technicality


So…. Could Ukraine rename themselves to USSR and assume the veto seat? 👹


----------



## TacticalTea

kev994 said:


> So…. Could Ukraine rename themselves to USSR and assume the veto seat? 👹


I believe Kazakhstan was the last SSR.

But yeah, I see no reason the seat couldn't go to Ukraine. After all, as per Putin's logic, Russia used to be Ukrainian anyway. (Kievan Rus)


----------



## OceanBonfire

MilEME09 said:


> So when are we going to start talking about plain clothes Russian troops acting to sabotage Kiev, that's against the laws of armed conflict if I recall.





kev994 said:


> Nope, definitely a war crime. Pretty serious one at that.
> Edit
> Here’s a bunch of references, if you scroll down to some of the older ones there pretty serious about it, ie POW status not applicable to those caught doing this. Reference



Other very possible war crimes:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497226440961626121

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497236937458999296


----------



## MilEME09

TacticalTea said:


> I believe Kazakhstan was the last SSR.
> 
> But yeah, I see no reason the seat couldn't go to Ukraine. After all, as per Putin's logic, Russia used to be Ukrainian anyway. (Kievan Rus)


if Kyiv used the legal case to be the true successor of the USSR, russia would go crazy, and I'd just laugh


----------



## MilEME09

OceanBonfire said:


> Other very possible war crimes:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497226440961626121
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497236937458999296


ICC is reportedly already opening up an investigation into war crimes, time for an Uno-reverse card, go to meet for peace talks and it is putin who is taken away for his war crimes trial?


----------



## TacticalTea

Hmph! Reminiscent of another disconnect between US/UK and Euro intelligence from two decades ago... Perhaps they shouldn't be too smug about ''Not finding WMDs in Iraq'' when they can't even see an invasion as it stares them in the face.


----------



## MilEME09

Good point brought up by a retired col CNN brought in. Putin may have 150-200k forces, but hows that Teeth to tail ratio? He estimated actually combat troops are only in the range of 60 to 70k.

Also happening right now is apparently an amphibious invasion of Odessa. Against a defender who knows its coming, if true, Russian forces are attempting one of the riskiest tactics in military operations.


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukrainian source info.





__





						Interfax-Ukraine - news from Ukraine and the world
					

News about recent political developments in Ukraine, key Ukrainian economic news and major current events in the CIS and the rest of the world.




					en.interfax.com.ua
				












						Ukrinform - Ukrainian National News Agency
					

Ukraine and world news. Ukrinform brings the latest news, daily news, political news, business news, social news, cultural news, sports news, international news тАУ 24/7 live in Ukrainian, Russian, English, German and Spanish.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Kirkhill

Eye In The Sky said:


> Ya.  Good thing the Allies didn’t do that in WWII…


Ungentlemanly.


----------



## Blackadder1916

kev994 said:


> So…. Could Ukraine rename themselves to USSR and assume the veto seat? 👹



No.  That would be the same as Canada or Cuba or Haiti, or any of the other 48 UN founding member states (_and Ukraine and Belarus were original members separate and distinct from the USSR_) deciding they would change their name and claim the seat.

Some analysis of it here.



			http://www.ejil.org/pdfs/3/2/2045.pdf


----------



## Kirkhill

kev994 said:


> Nope, definitely a war crime. Pretty serious one at that.
> Edit
> Here’s a bunch of references, if you scroll down to some of the older ones there pretty serious about it, ie POW status not applicable to those caught doing this. Reference


Or this one?









						Russian military who seized two Ukrainian army vehicles neutralized – Defense Ministry
					

Russian servicemen, who seized two vehicles of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, changed into the uniform of the Ukrainian military and were moving at high speed to the center of Kyiv from Obolon, have been neutralized. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## RangerRay

Russian offensive unexpectedly slowed by fierce Ukrainian resistance
					

“We do assess that there is greater resistance by the Ukrainians than the Russians expected,” a senior U.S. defense official said.  “They are fighting for their country.”




					www.nbcnews.com


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> Good point brought up by a retired col CNN brought in. Putin may have 150-200k forces, but hows that Teeth to tail ratio? He estimated actually combat troops are only in the range of 60 to 70k.
> 
> Also happening right now is apparently an amphibious invasion of Odessa. Against a defender who knows its coming, if true, Russian forces are attempting one of the riskiest tactics in military operations.


Airborne op and amphibious op in the first week?

Ballsy. 

Although I keep hearing conflicting reports of whether they did one earlier at Mariupol


----------



## MilEME09

RangerRay said:


> Russian offensive unexpectedly slowed by fierce Ukrainian resistance
> 
> 
> “We do assess that there is greater resistance by the Ukrainians than the Russians expected,” a senior U.S. defense official said.  “They are fighting for their country.”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nbcnews.com


What do you expect when they hate Russia after 8 years, I saw videos of people welding hedge hogs, tank traps, doing their part to slow the Russians down. The entire nation is united in defending against Russia. While some western analysts are saying they and in dire straights, they aren't loosing, they may not be winning either nut they are not loosing.


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497425237104893952
Seems like reports of a II-76 loaded with Paratroopers going down may have been heading to Vasylkiv. 

Russians definitely trying to tie down the encirclement of Kiev now.


----------



## MilEME09

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497425237104893952
> Seems like reports of a II-76 loaded with Paratroopers going down may have been heading to Vasylkiv.
> 
> Russians definitely trying to tie down the encirclement of Kiev now.


Interior ministry says over 18,000 reservists have been kitted out in Kyiv over the past 24h. That is not a tiny number, if they have a good amount of anti armour and air, Kyiv could be a very hard nut to Crack.


----------



## Spencer100

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497425237104893952
> Seems like reports of a II-76 loaded with Paratroopers going down may have been heading to Vasylkiv.
> 
> Russians definitely trying to tie down the encirclement of Kiev now.


That could be costly in lives.  Would there be 200 paras on-board?


----------



## MilEME09

Spencer100 said:


> That could be costly in lives.  Would there be 200 paras on-board?


150 plus crew


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Appears a Russian artillery battery got caught on the move 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497122161047138318


----------



## daftandbarmy

Spencer100 said:


> That could be costly in lives.  Would there be 200 paras on-board?



In paratrooper terms, an 'appetizer'.


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497460675031056387
Reports from Russia and folks on the ground that Russia now controls Melitopol. Seems that if they push north from that point they can encircle a lot of Ukrainian troops in the east.


----------



## Altair

daftandbarmy said:


> In paratrooper terms, an 'appetizer'.


True as this may be, they seem to be 0/2 in terms of Paras taking over key areas in independent airborne ops.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> So when are we going to start talking about plain clothes Russian troops acting to sabotage Kiev ...


OS stuff out there on that ...


> Russian reconnaissance and sabotage units, many reportedly operating in civilian clothes or captured Ukrainian uniforms, are reportedly active in central Kyiv. A Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister reported Russian forces seized two Ukrainian trucks to break through Ukrainian lines into central Kyiv around noon local time.[10] The Ukrainian General Staff warned at 5:00 pm local time that Russian units in civilian clothes are operating in several unspecified Ukrainian cities.[11]





MilEME09 said:


> if Kyiv used the legal case to be the true successor of the USSR, russia would go crazy, and I'd just laugh


Well, Putin & Co. HAVE been saying it's where it all began for Mother Russia, right?  

And this morning's winner in the "Russia's Why We Fight" narrative contest is this gem from RUS's EU envoy, via RUS state media (archive link) ...


> ...  Territorial gains have _“never been our intention” ... “Actually, *what the Russian armed forces are doing is in support of the counterattack by the militias of the two now recognized Donbass republics”* ..._


----------



## OceanBonfire

Map of Kyiv as of February 26, 0930 GMT:








__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497536923904139264


----------



## The Bread Guy

Ukraine asks Red Cross to take away bodies of Russian soldiers
					

The minister emphasizes that the Russian Federation needs to know how many such bodies and how many occupants lie on Ukrainian soil today




					112.international
				




Also, highlights from this from UKR's DefMin this morning (about an hour ago, if I have the time difference sorted) - some broad stats ...


> As of this morning, the number of Russian occupiers killed has exceeded 3,000. More than 200 interventionists are captured. The number of captives is increasing. They did not expect such a response and themselves. Hundreds of armoured vehicles have been destroyed, including more than a hundred Russian tanks. Yesterday, seven helicopters were shot down by Stingers.


... a call for looking out for "dickers" ...


> As the rapid offensive by large columns faltered, the sabotage-reconnaissance group and landing force began to be used more vigorously. Our army and Territorial Defence Forces are effectively disarming them. But the Territorial Defence Forces need help to act ahead. I appeal to everyone. There are artillery observes in Kyiv, Kharkiv and other cities who can target your homes or lay a road for the way for Russian troops. They are the eyes of the enemy. If you see suspicious persons setting up marks, tagging or failing to clearly explain their purpose for being in a specific place, detain them yourself or inform the Territorial Defence Forces.


... a warning to wanna-be collaborators ...


> I appeal to those knowingly collaborating with the Russian occupiers or who may have been misled by promises of "extra income". Russian heartless beast has killed almost two hundred civilians in two days, including three children. Another 33 children were injured. In such circumstances, you may simply not be willing or able to be arrested alive. Give up your criminal intentions before it is too late


... and "please make it hard for the invaders to refuel"


> If a convoy of Russian armoured vehicles passes you, a convoy with fuel follows it after a while. Stop or burn it. The Russian tanks just stop. Our troops capture them and use them against the enemy.


PDF capture of text also attached in case link doesn't work.


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497528678871453711

This is pretty smart of them.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Remius said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497528678871453711
> 
> This is pretty smart of them.


It is a very smart move. 
Most Soviet soldiers have no known gravefrom WW2. Either a mass grave or no grave. Afghanistan and Chechnya was not much better.


----------



## The Bread Guy

A few more OS stats & tidbits compiled by an analyst/former politician via UKR media ...


> So far, Ukrainian defenders have destroyed 14 planes, 8 helicopters, 102 tanks, 536 infantry fighting vehicles, 15 guns,  1 Anti-aircraft missile system BUK 17 vehicles and more than 3000 personnel





> Russian occupation forces will continue to use airborne tactics as an attempt to seize bridgeheads to attack Kyiv. Gostomel and Vasylkiv managed to defend themselves. It is crucial right now to take control of the nearest airfield and airport near the capital city.


We'll see on this bit ....


> It seems that February 26 will be a relatively calm day that will be used to rest and regroup the military.


Nice graphic, too ...


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> A few more OS stats & tidbits compiled by an analyst/former politician via UKR media ...
> 
> 
> We'll see on this bit ....
> 
> Nice graphic, too ...
> View attachment 69013


If they can double that number over the next 36hrs Ivan is going to start to get desperate.


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> If they can double that number over the next 36hrs Ivan is going to start to get desperate.


That's already 13% of Russian IFVs taken out, thats no small number either


----------



## The Bread Guy

The non-military side of the fight ...








						Thousands Of Ukrainians Seek Safety In Romania, Moldova, And Poland, As They Flee Russian Invasion
					

Ukrainian families express fear and loss as they flee Russia's full-scale offensive aimed at subduing their country, trickling into Poland, Romania, and Moldova.




					www.rferl.org
				



Photo from Poland crossing

Also, UKR Parliament web site down as of this post


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Russian column got tore up pretty good.
Can anyone tell if it was an air strike, artillery or javelins?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497570462464942086


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> The non-military side of the fight ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Thousands Of Ukrainians Seek Safety In Romania, Moldova, And Poland, As They Flee Russian Invasion
> 
> 
> Ukrainian families express fear and loss as they flee Russia's full-scale offensive aimed at subduing their country, trickling into Poland, Romania, and Moldova.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rferl.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Photo from Poland crossing
> View attachment 69014
> Also, UKR Parliament web site down as of this post
> View attachment 69015


My next door neighbour has immediate family outside of Rzeszow (40km from Ukraine border) in Poland and he’s oldest son is in first year med school in Poznan. He said that university students living in dorms in Krakow and Lublin have been ordered to leave their dorms and find new accommodations as their rooms were going to incoming US soldiers.


----------



## Good2Golf

Czech_pivo said:


> The Russian column got tore up pretty good.
> Can anyone tell if it was an air strike, artillery or javelins?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497570462464942086


The pavement looks relatively intact around the vehicles, so I would lean towards NLAW/Javelin/other


----------



## Halifax Tar

Isnt that funny... Looks like a lack of logistical strength is really hampering Ivan... 

Seeing lots of vids and pics of abandoned vehicles and tanks that have run out of gas...


----------



## Remius

Halifax Tar said:


> Isnt that funny... Looks like a lack of logistical strength is really hampering Ivan...
> 
> Seeing lots of vids and pics of abandoned vehicles and tanks that have run out of gas...


What’s the saying?

Amateurs study tactics but professionals study logistics.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Remius said:


> What’s the saying?
> 
> Amateurs study tactics but professionals study logistics.



I'm not going to say the tail should wag the dog... But without a capable a strong supply train your shiny death machines and people tend to become ineffective fast.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Feel free to take political pot-shots at will, but thought I'd share this because I've been wondering how to help as an individual, given there's all sorts of groups out there looking for money to help - many legit, some hinkey, and I have a hard time telling which is more legit than the other.

Even if Canada should be sending more beans & bullets, for the moment, Canada'll pony up a buck for every buck you give the Red Cross for Ukraine help.




__





						Canada to match up to $10 million in donations from Canadians in response to humanitarian crisis in Ukraine - Canada.ca
					

Today, the Honourable Harjit S. Sajjan, Minister of International Development and Minister responsible for the Pacific Economic Development Agency of Canada, announced that Canada will match every donation made by individual Canadians to the Canadian Red Cross between February 24, 2022, and...




					www.canada.ca
				



It ain't everything that should be done, but if you want to help out as an individual, well, better to light a single candle than do nothing but bitch about the darkness, right?


----------



## kev994

Halifax Tar said:


> Isnt that funny... Looks like a lack of logistical strength is really hampering Ivan...
> 
> Seeing lots of vids and pics of abandoned vehicles and tanks that have run out of gas...


Logistics is trying to do their DLN before end of FY


----------



## armrdsoul77

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/t1xnnc


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Russians paid a heavy price here.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497584916443578373


----------



## RangerRay

From BBC. 



			https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60517447
		




> Footage is revealing Russian losses​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Mark Urban
> Newsnight Defence and Diplomatic Editor
> Across tweets, TikToks and Facebook posts there is a growing body of evidence of the scale of setbacks suffered by the Russian army.
> Prisoners are interrogated, some dazed from the shock of capture and death of comrades, mumbling that they never knew they were being sent to Ukraine. One young Russian sits with his head in his hands, hiding his face as local people shout abuse about President Putin. Another, asked if he has a message for his family, says, “I love you.”
> Along with the growing number of videos of prisoners there is grislier stuff of charred corpses in burnt out vehicles. The toll of dead and captured is unclear but UK defence ministry estimates of hundreds of fatalities are likely to be true, particularly if reports about two Russian transport aircraft being shot down in the early hours of Saturday are confirmed. There could be many tens of prisoners, given the videos circulating.
> The revelation of these losses back home could have serious consequences for Putin. There is a long legacy of protest by soldiers’ mothers, for example during the Afghan and Chechen wars. Hence reports that Russia began restricting access to Twitter and Facebook, perhaps to slow the spread of images and testimony.


----------



## Altair

RangerRay said:


> From BBC.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60517447


Hearing reports of Russia committing all reserves to the fight, which would mean some of those elite Russian forces on the sidelines are going to be moving in. 

But at this point, if Ukrainian continues to hold on, for another week or so, does anyone else get the feeling that its over for Putin?


----------



## Halifax Tar

Altair said:


> Hearing reports of Russia committing all reserves to the fight, which would mean some of those elite Russian forces on the sidelines are going to be moving in.
> 
> But at this point, if Ukrainian continues to hold on, for another week or so, does anyone else get the feeling that its over for Putin?



The only thing removing Putin is Russia its self.  I guess we will have to wait and see, but if he manages to survive this boondoggle even Trudeau will be jealous of his Teflon.


----------



## Eaglelord17

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has turned down an offer from the United States of evacuation from the capital city Kyiv, the Ukraine embassy in Britain said Saturday on Twitter.

"The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride," Zelensky told the U.S., according to the embassy.





__





						Zelensky refuses U.S. offer to evacuate, saying 'I need ammunition, not a ride'
					

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has turned down an offer from the United States of evacuation from the capital city Kyiv, the Ukraine embassy in Britain said Saturday on Twitter.




					beta.ctvnews.ca


----------



## Remius

Eaglelord17 said:


> Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has turned down an offer from the United States of evacuation from the capital city Kyiv, the Ukraine embassy in Britain said Saturday on Twitter.
> 
> "The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride," Zelensky told the U.S., according to the embassy.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zelensky refuses U.S. offer to evacuate, saying 'I need ammunition, not a ride'
> 
> 
> Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has turned down an offer from the United States of evacuation from the capital city Kyiv, the Ukraine embassy in Britain said Saturday on Twitter.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> beta.ctvnews.ca


This guy is going to go down in History as one of the greater leaders of this century.


----------



## KevinB

Remius said:


> This guy is going to go down in History as one of the greater leaders of this century.


Or at least the classiest/bravest one.
  I suspect the US offer was so he could run a Government out of Lviv or even Poland.


----------



## Czech_pivo

It’s a question of time to location  and trained personal now.


Germany lifts block on sending weapons to Ukraine​Damian McGuiness
BBC News in Berlin
Germany has dropped its block on the delivery of German-made lethal weapons to Ukraine via third countries. 
The move means the Netherlands will be able to send German 400 rocket-propelled grenade launchers to Ukraine. 
It marks a major shift in German policy and could allow an increase of European military assistance to Ukraine as many weapons in Europe are at least partly German-manufactured, which means Berlin has a say on their use and export.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has repeatedly referred to this policy in recent weeks when refusing to deliver lethal weapons to Ukraine.


----------



## Remius

Altair said:


> Hearing reports of Russia committing all reserves to the fight, which would mean some of those elite Russian forces on the sidelines are going to be moving in.
> 
> But at this point, if Ukrainian continues to hold on, for another week or so, does anyone else get the feeling that its over for Putin?


He is going to end up diminished that is for sure.  I think this was one big miscalculation on his part. And it may lead to regime changes.  Or may lead to escalation of insanity.  At what point does the inner circle take matters into their own hands…


----------



## Dana381

It's great to see Ukraine standing strong, Is there any remotely accurate estimates of Ukrainian losses so far. Just to give context. It seems to me Ukraine is fighting more effectively but I don't know.


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

KevinB said:


> Or at least the classiest/bravest one.
> I suspect the US offer was so he could run a Government out of Lviv or even Poland.


I think even if he's dead, but still in Kylv, he'd be leading the fight better then alive but somewhere else.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> Hearing reports of Russia committing all reserves to the fight, which would mean some of those elite Russian forces on the sidelines are going to be moving in.
> 
> But at this point, if Ukrainian continues to hold on, for another week or so, does anyone else get the feeling that its over for Putin?


I don’t think Russia can afford another week+ of this.  If they can’t make major headway’s in the next 48hrs, say end of Monday, they will take the gloves off and start carpet bombing areas in order to try the terror approach. It becomes a war of survival for Putin.


----------



## Altair

Halifax Tar said:


> The only thing removing Putin is Russia its self.  I guess we will have to wait and see, but if he manages to survive this boondoggle even Trudeau will be jealous of his Teflon.


If Putin can hand the Russian people Ukraine, back in the fold, he should be fine.

But if the Russian military is mauled, troops killed, and nothing tangible gained, economy tanked, I think those at home who can effect regime change start to whisper.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> I don’t think Russia can afford another week+ of this.  If they can’t make major headway’s in the next 48hrs, say end of Monday, they will take the gloves off and start carpet bombing areas in order to try the terror approach. It becomes a war of survival for Putin.


Yeah, to their credit, Russia has not unleashed their full might on Ukraine. Likely because they don't want the entire population with a blood debt to pay. 

But if it comes to survival of Putin versus civilian casualties, those civilians are going to get it.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Dana381 said:


> It's great to see Ukraine standing strong, Is there any remotely accurate estimates of Ukrainian losses so far. Just to give context. It seems to me Ukraine is fighting more effectively but I don't know.



I'd be wary of any casualty figures at this point in any conflict because:

"The first casualty, when war comes, is truth."

Hiram W Johnson


----------



## Remius

Altair said:


> Yeah, to their credit, Russia has not unleashed their full might on Ukraine. Likely because they don't want the entire population with a blood debt to pay.
> 
> But if it comes to survival of Putin versus civilian casualties, those civilians are going to get it.


That could lead to intervention.  Lots of polling data coming in about western nations and their people wanting to see more action on this.


----------



## Altair

Remius said:


> That could lead to intervention.  Lots of polling data coming in about western nations and their people wanting to see more action on this.


So the west risks WW3 over bombing of civilian areas, but not over the wholesale invasion of Ukraine?

While Russian forces are tied down and the rest of the country vulnerable, those nuke things are still ready to go, and that kind of limits things, no?


----------



## MilEME09

Altair said:


> Hearing reports of Russia committing all reserves to the fight, which would mean some of those elite Russian forces on the sidelines are going to be moving in.
> 
> But at this point, if Ukrainian continues to hold on, for another week or so, does anyone else get the feeling that its over for Putin?


Kyiv is becoming Putins Stalingrad, the defense is strong, determined, and not about to give up the fight. Ukraine has mobilized over 18,000 just in Kyiv, if they are well supplied to hold out, this will turn into brutal street to street fighting. Fighting has made no progress in Donbas, Kharkiv and others are holding. Russia is clearly frustrated at their lack of progress and the body bags are stacking up faster than they thought. 

Russias material losses alone will take years to replace already.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> Kyiv is becoming Putins Stalingrad, the defense is strong, determined, and not about to give up the fight. Ukraine has mobilized over 18,000 just in Kyiv, if they are well supplied to hold out, this will turn into brutal street to street fighting. Fighting has made no progress in Donbas, Kharkiv and others are holding. Russia is clearly frustrated at their lack of progress and the body bags are stacking up faster than they thought.
> 
> Russias material losses alone will take years to replace already.


4 years, next winter olympics?


----------



## Remius

Altair said:


> So the west risks WW3 over bombing of civilian areas, but not over the wholesale invasion of Ukraine?
> 
> While Russian forces are tied down and the rest of the country vulnerable, those nuke things are still ready to go, and that kind of limits things, no?


It might.

I’m just saying that electorates in western countries are not going to be happy to see Ukrainian citizens bombed.  There will be pressure.  We are already seing pressure. 


I could see no a fly zone or a limited area no fly zone established first as a possible escalation from NATO.


----------



## Altair

Remius said:


> It might.
> 
> I’m just saying that electorates in western countries are not going to be happy to see Ukrainian citizens bombed.  There will be pressure.  We are already seing pressure.
> 
> 
> I could see no a fly zone or a limited area no fly zone established first as a possible escalation from NATO.


No fly zones work really well when the enemy air assets don't shoot back.


----------



## TacticalTea

France intercepts Russian Cargo

Does this presage what's to come for our Canadian frigates? Boarding action on the horizon for SNMG1?


----------



## HiTechComms

MilEME09 said:


> Kyiv is becoming Putins Stalingrad, the defense is strong, determined, and not about to give up the fight. Ukraine has mobilized over 18,000 just in Kyiv, if they are well supplied to hold out, this will turn into brutal street to street fighting. Fighting has made no progress in Donbas, Kharkiv and others are holding. Russia is clearly frustrated at their lack of progress and the body bags are stacking up faster than they thought.
> 
> Russias material losses alone will take years to replace already.


Putin wants to declaw the Ukrainians and he will take the Donbas regions after crippling most of the military, this is where he will focus his deployment is my guess. They are ethnic Russians. Ukrainians screwed up in Crimea this is where it all started.  Putin knows what he is doing

Russia doesn't care about casualties.  Ukraine should have stayed neutral and avoided NATO and Putin was clear about their membership. 

Ukraine is corrupt and has been a hot bed of corruption and money laundering. Let them fight it out. NATO cannot and will not do anything. 

I guess starting a war is a good way to kick start the economy. As an eastern European its concerning but not that much.


----------



## Altair

And I want to say, I would fully back these things. 

But at what point in this has the West shown any backbone for a fight versus Russia?


----------



## TacticalTea

Altair said:


> And I want to say, I would fully back these things.
> 
> But at what point in this has the West shown any backbone for a fight versus Russia?


Therein lies the entire problem.

Putin's whole strategy is based on this lack of Western spine.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Wow! Watch this video and stop it at the point of impact. It certainly look like some brave Ukrainian threw a Molotov at the vehicle. The girl walking doesn’t even know it’s about to happen. Would love to know if the vehicle was destroyed.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497583185776971779


----------



## MilEME09

HiTechComms said:


> Putin wants to declaw the Ukrainians and he will take the Donbas regions after crippling most of the military, this is where he will focus his deployment is my guess. They are ethnic Russians. Ukrainians screwed up in Crimea this is where it all started.  Putin knows what he is doing
> 
> Russia doesn't care about casualties.  Ukraine should have stayed neutral and avoided NATO and Putin was clear about their membership.
> 
> Ukraine is corrupt and has been a hot bed of corruption and money laundering. Let them fight it out. NATO cannot and will not do anything.
> 
> I guess starting a war is a good way to kick start the economy. As an eastern European its concerning but not that much.


Putin can be clear all he wants, no nation, not even Russia should be able to dictate the destiny if another nation. The Ukrainian people have decided multiple times the want to look west not east they are battling corruption, but its a long fight. This situation is not the fault of Ukraine.


----------



## Remius

MilEME09 said:


> Putin can be clear all he wants, no nation, not even Russia should be able to dictate the destiny if another nation. The Ukrainian people have decided multiple times the want to look west not east they are battling corruption, but its a long fight. This situation is not the fault of Ukraine.


And I’m not sure Putin knows what he is doing at this point because it looks like his plan is being derailed and he isn’t used to that.  We’ll see what happens in the next few days.


----------



## Altair

TacticalTea said:


> Therein lies the entire problem.
> 
> Putin's whole strategy is based on this lack of Western spine.


It absolutely is. 

South Korea isn't a part of Nato. Neither is Japan. Just sticking 10k, 20k western soldiers in Ukraine and daring Russia to try anything would have stopped this in its tracks. Russia would have cried bloody murder, and cut gas to europe or something, but can anyone tell me in all honesty that that wouldn't be a better outcome than what we are seeing now?


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> 4 years, next winter olympics?


If Ukraine comes through this intact with the same leadership, I’m going to be the first to say that they get NATO membership and Putin won’t be able to do much about it. Poland, Romania, the Baltics, UK, Canada will want nothing less than Ukraine membership.


----------



## Good2Golf

Remius said:


> At what point does the inner circle take matters into their own hands…


when their kids living the western dream in London get their visas rescinded and put on a two-hop (no Aeroflot out of LHR anymore) flight back home, while their luxury apartments and cars are confiscated…

Edit: spelling


----------



## Altair

Remius said:


> And I’m not sure Putin knows what he is doing at this point because it looks like his plan is being derailed and he isn’t used to that.  We’ll see what happens in the next few days.


I seriously thing Russia tried a clean invasion, like how the USA invaded Iraq. Destroying the military, leaving civilians alone, taking out their leadership. 

But if that fails, Chechnya is likely the fallback strategy.


----------



## Halifax Tar

HiTechComms said:


> Putin wants to declaw the Ukrainians and he will take the Donbas regions after crippling most of the military, this is where he will focus his deployment is my guess. They are ethnic Russians. Ukrainians screwed up in Crimea this is where it all started.  Putin knows what he is doing
> 
> Russia doesn't care about casualties.  Ukraine should have stayed neutral and avoided NATO and Putin was clear about their membership.
> 
> Ukraine is corrupt and has been a hot bed of corruption and money laundering. Let them fight it out. NATO cannot and will not do anything.
> 
> I guess starting a war is a good way to kick start the economy. As an eastern European its concerning but not that much.



Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd we found our first Russian supporter!


----------



## Remius

We’ll maybe China isn’t as friendly as Russia or some may think.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497628213392068612








						China State Banks Restrict Financing for Russian Commodities
					

At least two of China’s largest state-owned banks are restricting financing for purchases of Russian commodities, underscoring the limits of Beijing’s pledge to maintain economic ties with one of its most important strategic partners in the face of sanctions by the U.S. and its allies.




					www.bloomberg.com


----------



## HiTechComms

Halifax Tar said:


> Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd we found our first Russian supporter!


I am not a Russian supporter, I just don't want WW3 because all my family is on the border with Russia and it is part of NATO. So excuse me for not wanting more of my family die to Russian scum bags in a possible nuclear war. Its quite convenient that you are sitting 6KM away from Danger.

Poland has done more for Ukraine then the rest of the west and Poland is under constant criticism for not taking african/middle east refugees by EU. Even if historically Poland fought many wars against Ukraine.

Ukraine has been a disaster that has been a dumping ground for corrupt American political games for a long time, where will Hunter Biden get his paychecks now. Funny how Biden got rid of Trump era sanctions and now re-applied them. Germans have a lot to do with this crap as well because of Nord Stream 2 which is Merkles disaster. Remember the coup against a Democratically elected Ukrainian president?

Ukraine should have never applied to NATO just like Georgia.  This is the same reason why China keeps propping up North Korea because they will not tolerate Korea unification and an American Ally.

Maybe the Clintons should have maybe accepted Russia request to discuss NATO membership but NOPE. Russia in American world view will always be bad guys as its convenient for the Politicans to have a boogy man while they are destroying their own country. So now Russia is forced into the corner and will have China as an Ally. Congratulations to creating more problems then solving.

Yeah Ukraine is not our monkeys or our circus.


----------



## dapaterson

I'm thinking that when your HHQ calls for a LOCSTAT, and you reply "Go Fuck Yourself" you're going to get into trouble, even if that is truly where you are.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497570179026403329


----------



## Altair

HiTechComms said:


> I am not a Russian supporter, I just don't want WW3 because all my family is on the border with Russia and it is part of NATO. So excuse me for not wanting more of my family die to Russian scum bags in a possible nuclear war. Its quite convenient that you are sitting 6KM away from Danger.
> 
> Poland has done more for Ukraine then the rest of the west and Poland is under constant criticism for not taking african/middle east refugees by EU. Even if historically Poland fought many wars against Ukraine.
> 
> Ukraine has been a disaster that has been a dumping ground for corrupt American political games for a long time, where will Hunter Biden get his paychecks now. Funny how Biden got rid of Trump era sanctions and now re-applied them. Germans have a lot to do with this crap as well because of Nord Stream 2 which is Merkles disaster. Remember the coup against a Democratically elected Ukrainian president?
> 
> Ukraine should have never applied to NATO just like Georgia.  This is the same reason why China keeps propping up North Korea because they will not tolerate Korea unification and an American Ally.
> 
> Maybe the Clintons should have maybe accepted Russia request to discuss NATO membership but NOPE. Russia in American world view will always be bad guys as its convenient for the Politicans to have a boogy man while they are destroying their own country. So now Russia is forced into the corner and will have China as an Ally. Congratulations to creating more problems then solving.
> 
> Yeah Ukraine is not our monkeys or our circus.


You started well then went full Russian supporter.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Infanteer said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497306630026936327
> ...and a reminder as to how deadly serious this is (and that those calling for a US-imposed no-fly zone are idiots), Russia is moving nuclear missiles on TEL into Moscow....





MilEME09 said:


> *Kyiv is becoming Putins Stalingrad, the defense is strong, determined,* and not about to give up the fight. Ukraine has mobilized over 18,000 just in Kyiv, if they are well supplied to hold out, this will turn into brutal street to street fighting. Fighting has made no progress in Donbas, Kharkiv and others are holding. Russia is clearly frustrated at their lack of progress and the body bags are stacking up faster than they thought.
> 
> Russias material losses alone will take years to replace already.


Hardly

Russia has 13,000 MBTs and 27,000+ AFVs.  

It's day 3 of the war and the Russians are advancing still.  



The Russians will move to link up the Forces in Kherson with those in the Donbass.  

The other move will be to link up those IVO Sumy in the NE with those advancing on Kiev from the North.  

Once that is complete, Breakout from Kherson to link up with the Kyiv Front and trap Ukrainian Forces on one side of the Dnieper.  

We will see what it looks like a week from now.


----------



## OceanBonfire

> Ukrainian Health Minister Viktor Lyashko said 198 civilians, including three children, had been killed in the conflict and 1,115 wounded.











						Russian troops ordered to advance in Ukraine
					

Russia on Saturday ordered its troops to advance in Ukraine "from all directions" as the Ukrainian capital Kyiv imposed a blanket curfew and officials reported 198 civilian deaths.




					news.yahoo.com
				





__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497615076920070148


----------



## KevinB

HiTechComms said:


> I am not a Russian supporter, I just don't want WW3 because all my family is on the border with Russia and it is part of NATO. So excuse me for not wanting more of my family die to Russian scum bags in a possible nuclear war. Its quite convenient that you are sitting 6KM away from Danger.


Life sucks wear a helmet.
   Tell them to start digging because Poland and the UK seem to be the biggest members of NATO to want to push ground troops in.



HiTechComms said:


> Poland has done more for Ukraine then the rest of the west and Poland is under constant criticism for not taking african/middle east refugees by EU. Even if historically Poland fought many wars against Ukraine.


 So we should blame Poland for this?



HiTechComms said:


> Ukraine has been a disaster that has been a dumping ground for corrupt American political games for a long time, where will Hunter Biden get his paychecks now. Funny how Biden got rid of Trump era sanctions and now re-applied them. Germans have a lot to do with this crap as well because of Nord Stream 2 which is Merkles disaster. Remember the coup against a Democratically elected Ukrainian president?


  Saying the Presidential Elections in the Ukraine pre 2014 where democratic is like saying that Belarus has democratic elections.


HiTechComms said:


> Ukraine should have never applied to NATO just like Georgia.  This is the same reason why China keeps propping up North Korea because they will not tolerate Korea unification and an American Ally.


Ukraine is free to pursue its own destiny - inside or outside of NATO
  You're clearly from Poland - but you realize that the same argument would be made for Poland if Vlad took the Ukraine over.



HiTechComms said:


> Maybe the Clintons should have maybe accepted Russia request to discuss NATO membership but NOPE. Russia in American world view will always be bad guys as its convenient for the Politicans to have a boogy man while they are destroying their own country. So now Russia is forced into the corner and will have China as an Ally. Congratulations to creating more problems then solving.


 Maybe he should have - lets not cry over spilt milk - Russia 


HiTechComms said:


> Yeah Ukraine is not our monkeys or our circus.


Thanks Chamberlain -- I prefer to adopt a view of the only thing needed for Evil to Triumph is if Good Mean do nothing.


----------



## RaceAddict

dapaterson said:


> I'm thinking that when your HHQ calls for a LOCSTAT, and you reply "Go Fuck Yourself" you're going to get into trouble, even if that is truly where you are.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497570179026403329



What's old is new again.

When Russian tanks rolled into Prague in 1968 the Czechoslovakians changed street names, took down house numbers and removed road signs to slow them.

This had gotten me wondering what, if any, kind of GPS (GLONASS/Galileo) denial is being used there. But then reading that we can still view traffic patterns on Google Maps makes me think they aren't using any at all since everyone's phones seem to be pinging as they normally would be.


----------



## FJAG

HiTechComms said:


> Ukraine has been a disaster that has been a dumping ground for corrupt American political games for a long time, where will Hunter Biden get his paychecks now. Funny how Biden got rid of Trump era sanctions and now re-applied them. Germans have a lot to do with this crap as well because of Nord Stream 2 which is Merkles disaster.


Explain to me how substituting Russian corruption for whatever there might be in the Ukraine is making the situation better?



HiTechComms said:


> Ukraine should have never applied to NATO just like Georgia. This is the same reason why China keeps propping up North Korea because they will not tolerate Korea unification and an American Ally.


So wanting to join a defence alliance because your neighbour is a psychotic a**hole with dreams of subjugating you makes it your fault that the a**hole invades?



HiTechComms said:


> Maybe the Clintons should have maybe accepted Russia request to discuss NATO membership but NOPE. Russia in American world view will always be bad guys. So now Russia is forced into the corner and will have China as an Ally. Congratulations to creating more problems.


That's because too many Russian leaders are corrupt "bad" guys. Russia had a perfect opportunity to join the western economy over the last twenty-five years without being a NATO member. In fact since the Iron Curtain came down they have taken many advantages in engraining themselves in the Western economy and becoming, at the time, valued member. You look at Nord Stream as a disaster when in fact it Nord Stream 1 was successfully put into place at a time when relations with Russia were good and there were hopes of a more integrated economy with Russia (not to mention another energy source for Germany). NS 2 was planned before Crimea and worked on even though there were numerous fits and starts and operating the pipeline has not been granted. 

You're attempts to lay this on Biden and Clinton (throwing in Hunter for bonus points) are a little thin.

The trouble is Russian leaders insist on maintaining a status quo vis a vis their former possessions which do not want to remain in thralldom to Moscow. 

Maybe rather than trying to cast a wide net, you should put the blame on exactly where it falls ... the guy who told his tanks to roll. I was once part of a group who was told by a Russian diplomat to Germany, while the Baltic states were still part of the PfP process, that should the Baltic States join NATO "the tanks would roll". I believed him and I still believe that the treat is still out there. At the time the Russian Army was in shit shape and couldn't roll. They've had time to get better and IMHO, the Ukraine was both a "low hanging fruit" opportunity and a practical test of whether the Army's reforms have succeeded.

The West didn't create this problem. It's been trying to manage the problem that is Russian leadership. Sometimes poorly, frequently with an edge of self-interest but reactively. 

🍻


----------



## HiTechComms

KevinB said:


> Life sucks wear a helmet.
> Tell them to start digging because Poland and the UK seem to be the biggest members of NATO to want to push ground troops in.
> 
> 
> So we should blame Poland for this?
> 
> 
> Saying the Presidential Elections in the Ukraine pre 2014 where democratic is like saying that Belarus has democratic elections.
> 
> Ukraine is free to pursue its own destiny - inside or outside of NATO
> You're clearly from Poland - but you realize that the same argument would be made for Poland if Vlad took the Ukraine over.
> 
> 
> Maybe he should have - lets not cry over spilt milk - Russia
> 
> Thanks Chamberlain -- I prefer to adopt a view of the only thing needed for Evil to Triumph is if Good Mean do nothing.


What ever. I don't care Ukraine has its problems not our job to fix them.

If Vlad wanted to invade Poland that's Article 5 and WW3.

I wonder if you would be so quickly to agree if China or Russia build a major base on our border or if Americans would tolerate the same thing?

Russia has opened up a can of worms with Ukraine let them deal with it, most likely they will win and occupy and 1 or 2 things will happen.

Russia was never welcomed by the west and they never wanted them part of the west lets not pretend. Culturally and politically they were always made out to be the bad guys, it was western wag the dog red herring.  Ironically enough the EU wants Russia's Energy same goes for Canada. Funny how they hate Alberta oil but have no problems importing Russia's for ages? Its all about control and politics. 

1. They will stay and then fight a prolonged war with insurgents, I highly doubt this.

2. They will take out Ukrainians leadership , cripple the military, take separatist areas, cause mass amount of infrastructure damage and then simply turn around and go home. West will be left holding its limp dick, looking like a bunch of ineffectual fools. Russia will do Russia things and nothing will change.

Simple matter of fact is that the "Western Hegemony" is decaying. If its not COVID its WARS. 

Its funny how everyone keeps citing if people chose this course of action no one should interfere. Does that apply to the Donbas region cause last time I checked Ukranians have been shelling them for 8 years. Would you stand with this opinion if this was happening in Canada and separatists (Last time I checked not so much with the FLQ)?


----------



## The Bread Guy

HiTechComms said:


> ... Ukraine should have stayed neutral and avoided NATO and Putin was clear about their membership ...


You know that TRULY "neutral" would mean no links to/affiliation with either NATO *or* Russia, right? 

And you think Putin & Co. would have been OK with THAT kind of "neutral"?


Czech_pivo said:


> ... Poland, Romania, the Baltics, UK, Canada will want nothing less than Ukraine membership.


Even if UKR comes out of this close to what it was like last week, though, will France, Germany - or Hungary for that matter - finally get on board and say "OK, let 'em in"?


----------



## HiTechComms

The Bread Guy said:


> You know that TRULY "neutral" would mean no links to/affiliation with either NATO *or* Russia, right?
> 
> And you think Putin & Co. would have been OK with THAT kind of "neutral"?


Yes I think they would leave them be. NATO membership just pushed them to comiting.

I think Donbas was a lost cause, Crimea was the first step and Ukrainians didn't deal with it. 

Lets not blame Putin for everything because it was their Representatives that voted on this. Russian people voted for these representatives.

Ukraines problems are for Ukraine to fix.

Upside is the west can unload their old stock weapons to test against an adversary, and to have a nice test bed for other weapons. Reminds me of the former Yugoslavia.

But you know if you kill your enemies they win!


----------



## Altair

HiTechComms said:


> What ever. I don't care Ukraine has its problems not our job to fix them.
> 
> If Vlad wanted to invade Poland that's Article 5 and WW3.
> 
> I wonder if you would be so quickly to agree if China or Russia build a major base on our border or if Americans would tolerate the same thing?
> 
> Russia has opened up a can of worms with Ukraine let them deal with it, most likely they will win and occupy and 1 or 2 things will happen.
> 
> Russia was never welcomed by the west and they never wanted them part of the west lets not pretend. Culturally and politically they were always made out to be the bad guys, it was western wag the dog red herring.  Ironically enough the EU wants Russia's Energy same goes for Canada. Funny how they hate Alberta oil but have no problems importing Russia's for ages? Its all about control and politics.
> 
> 1. They will stay and then fight a prolonged war with insurgents, I highly doubt this.
> 
> 2. They will take out Ukrainians leadership , cripple the military, take separatist areas, cause mass amount of infrastructure damage and then simply turn around and go home. West will be left holding its limp dick, looking like a bunch of ineffectual fools. Russia will do Russia things and nothing will change.
> 
> Simple matter of fact is that the "Western Hegemony" is decaying. If its not COVID its WARS.
> 
> Its funny how everyone keeps citing if people chose this course of action no one should interfere. Does that apply to the Donbas region cause last time I checked Ukranians have been shelling them for 8 years. Would you stand with this opinion if this was happening in Canada and separatists (Last time I checked not so much with the FLQ)?


I must say, that as a LPC supporter on this forum I kind of feel like the odd one out sometimes. 

I thank you for taking that mantel for the next little while.


----------



## HiTechComms

Altair said:


> I must say, that as a LPC supporter on this forum I kind of feel like the odd one out sometimes.
> 
> I thank you for taking that mantel for the next little while.


Not sure what that means. It doesn't matter who we vote for anymore its all a big uniparty anyway.
All politicians lie all the time. CPC, NDP, LPC. Same shit, different pile.


----------



## The Bread Guy

HiTechComms said:


> Yes I think they would leave them be.


I'd take that bet - against you, of course 


HiTechComms said:


> ... Lets not blame Putin for everything because it was their Representatives that voted on this. Russian people voted for these representatives ...


We'll have to agree to disagree on how ... representative & reflective Russia's government is of what Russian people want.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Hardly
> 
> Russia has 13,000 MBTs and 27,000+ AFVs.
> 
> It's day 3 of the war and the Russians are advancing still.
> 
> View attachment 69019
> 
> The Russians will move to link up the Forces in Kherson with those in the Donbass.
> 
> The other move will be to link up those IVO Sumy in the NE with those advancing on Kiev from the North.
> 
> Once that is complete, Breakout from Kherson to link up with the Kyiv Front and trap Ukrainian Forces on one side of the Dnieper.
> 
> We will see what it looks like a week from now.


Break out from Kherson hinges on their controlling the 2 bridges in that area, do they control them? 
If not, they will need to build a major bridge to support heavy machines and defend said bridge. Otherwise they aren’t crossing to the West Bank.


----------



## HiTechComms

The Bread Guy said:


> I'd take that bet - against you, of course
> 
> We'll have to agree to disagree on how ... representative & reflective Russia's government is of what Russian people want.


How would you know are you in Russia? 

I think the same comment can be made by about every government in the world. LPC only received 32% of the popular vote. 

I doesn't matter, so who cares.


----------



## armrdsoul77

"A number of other countries have now announced their own planned deliveries of additional military aid to Ukraine. Most significantly, Germany, which has previously refused to send weapons and other "lethal aid," and has blocked third-party transfers of German weapons, says it will now send Stingers and Panzerfaust 3 unguided anti-tank weapons. The German government will also allow the Netherlands, which is also considering deploying Patriot surface-to-air missiles in NATO territory opposite Ukraine as part of the alliance's own buildup to deter further Russian aggression, to transfer additional Panzerfaust 3s."


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497634672012152838


----------



## Altair

So open question. 

What are the benchmarks for Russian and Ukrainian success here?

Time to finish combat operations? 

If we go way back, it took Germany 35 days to invade poland

If we go back 19 years, it took the US 42 days to invade Iraq. 

Or are we basing this on losses inflicted?


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Czech_pivo said:


> Break out from Kherson hinges on their controlling the 2 bridges in that area, do they control them?
> If not, they will need to build a major bridge to support heavy machines and defend said bridge. Otherwise they aren’t crossing to the West Bank.


My understanding is they control the bridge at the Hydro Dam in Nova Kahkovka and they also now control the Antonovsky Bridge.  The Ukrainians attempted to retake the bridge last night but were unsuccessful.

Russian Forces are also moving rapidly towards Enerhodar which is the site of the largest Nuclear Power Plant in Europe.



Elsewhere, I've seen reports that Russian Forces are massing in Belarus North of Rivne IOT open up a new front.  This will most likely come during the next phase.


----------



## Czech_pivo

HiTechComms said:


> What ever. I don't care Ukraine has its problems not our job to fix them.
> 
> If Vlad wanted to invade Poland that's Article 5 and WW3.
> 
> I wonder if you would be so quickly to agree if China or Russia build a major base on our border or if Americans would tolerate the same thing?
> 
> Russia has opened up a can of worms with Ukraine let them deal with it, most likely they will win and occupy and 1 or 2 things will happen.
> 
> Russia was never welcomed by the west and they never wanted them part of the west lets not pretend. Culturally and politically they were always made out to be the bad guys, it was western wag the dog red herring.  Ironically enough the EU wants Russia's Energy same goes for Canada. Funny how they hate Alberta oil but have no problems importing Russia's for ages? Its all about control and politics.
> 
> 1. They will stay and then fight a prolonged war with insurgents, I highly doubt this.
> 
> 2. They will take out Ukrainians leadership , cripple the military, take separatist areas, cause mass amount of infrastructure damage and then simply turn around and go home. West will be left holding its limp dick, looking like a bunch of ineffectual fools. Russia will do Russia things and nothing will change.
> 
> Simple matter of fact is that the "Western Hegemony" is decaying. If its not COVID its WARS.
> 
> Its funny how everyone keeps citing if people chose this course of action no one should interfere. Does that apply to the Donbas region cause last time I checked Ukranians have been shelling them for 8 years. Would you stand with this opinion if this was happening in Canada and separatists (Last time I checked not so much with the FLQ)?


As someone whose family on my Mother’s side is from Galicia (on the Polish side of the border) and has friends/family in the area, I say you are wrong - full stop.
Poland better be praying, on their knees praying, that Ukraine stops Putin because if not, they and the Baltic’s are next. The Duchy of Warsaw is well within Putin’s memory, avenging the 1920 ‘Miracle on the Vistula’ will be next.  
If Ukraine falls, Poland suffers, economically, politically, militarily, socially - in every way. 
The Poles that I know have a backbone, know that freedom does not come cheaply and hate the Bear - even those that were Communists before 1989. 
It is your circus - the monkeys may not be yours, but it your circus. 

How much EU (cough, German, cough) money has been poured into Poland over the last 20yrs? Poland was a country full of small, inefficient farmers in 1990 with a smattering of rusting out heavy industry that was causing the people to die a slow death from pollution and environmental disasters thanks to the Communist planning that occurred for 45yrs. It was corrupt - I’ll say that again, it was corrupt during all of the 90’s and it wasnt until it was forced to adhere to EU rules/regulations that actual rule of law was finally implemented. It was the exact same in Prague when I worked/lived there in the 90s. I saw/experienced it first hand. 

Ukraine has huge, massive problems - but positive change has occurred and if allowed, will continue to occur. Romania was a basket case, worse off than Poland, but integration with the EU is forcing change. Too many people lived for decades/generations by turning over and just surviving and allowing others to decide their lives/future for them . But, given the chance, most will turn towards the light and make the choice of democracy and freedom.


----------



## Jarnhamar

The sudden reversal by Germany about allowing weapons to be sent to Ukraine seems very suspicious. Wonder if those weapons will actually make it into Ukraine hands. Could be an attempt to save face with NATO.


----------



## suffolkowner

Altair said:


> So open question.
> 
> What are the benchmarks for Russian and Ukrainian success here?
> 
> Time to finish combat operations?
> 
> If we go way back, it took Germany 35 days to invade poland
> 
> If we go back 19 years, it took the US 42 days to invade Iraq.
> 
> Or are we basing this on losses inflicted?


I expected more than this from both sides as of right now but its a win for NATO if Russia keeps losing equipment and manpower as they appear to be. Ukrainian success has to be Russian withdrawal. I'm not sure what would contitute a Russian success but 30 days is probably too long to "liberate" their brothers from another mother. Already you see more and more support for Ukraine building and for furthur sanctions against Russia and greater movement towards NATO from Sweden and Finland


----------



## Remius

Jarnhamar said:


> The sudden reversal by Germany about allowing weapons to be sent to Ukraine seems very suspicious. Wonder if those weapons will actually make it into Ukraine hands. Could be an attempt to save face with NATO.


I suspect the Dutch will make sure that happens.  They’ve seen this this show before and haven’t forgotten.


----------



## HiTechComms

Czech_pivo said:


> As someone whose family on my Mother’s side is from Galicia (on the Polish side of the border) and has friends/family in the area, I say you are wrong - full stop.
> Poland better be praying, on their knees praying, that Ukraine stops Putin because if not, they and the Baltic’s are next. The Duchy of Warsaw is well within Putin’s memory, avenging the 1920 ‘Miracle on the Vistula’ will be next.
> If Ukraine falls, Poland suffers, economically, politically, militarily, socially - in every way.
> The Poles that I know have a backbone, know that freedom does not come cheaply and hate the Bear - even those that were Communists before 1989.
> It is your circus - the monkeys may not be yours, but it your circus.
> 
> How much EU (cough, German, cough) money has been poured into Poland over the last 20yrs? Poland was a country full of small, inefficient farmers in 1990 with a smattering of rusting out heavy industry that was causing the people to die a slow death from pollution and environmental disasters thanks to the Communist planning that occurred for 45yrs. It was corrupt - I’ll say that again, it was corrupt during all of the 90’s and it wasnt until it was forced to adhere to EU rules/regulations that actual rule of law was finally implemented. It was the exact same in Prague when I worked/lived there in the 90s. I saw/experienced it first hand.
> 
> Ukraine has huge, massive problems - but positive change has occurred and if allowed, will continue to occur. Romania was a basket case, worse off than Poland, but integration with the EU is forcing change. Too many people lived for decades/generations by turning over and just surviving and allowing others to decide their lives/future for them . But, given the chance, most will turn towards the light and make the choice of democracy and freedom.


Poland will do Poland things.

Good the Germans never paid reparations for the atrocities they commited during WW2.  Poland in World court would have succeeded for the estimated 1T of dollars. So yeah screw the Germany. Poland would have done fine eventually. Russia and Germany both screwed Poland. To say EU came as the saviours because Poland was corrupt, yeah, thanks for the solution to the problem you caused. Again Screw Germany oh and pay up aholes.

Have some tough pills for you to swallow but the world all over is improving. Nothing to do with EU but all to do with opportunities, the boomers that were in charge are on the way out, thank fully.


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> My understanding is they control the bridge at the Hydro Dam in Nova Kahkovka and they also now control the Antonovsky Bridge.  The Ukrainians attempted to retake the bridge last night but were unsuccessful.
> 
> Russian Forces are also moving rapidly towards Enerhodar which is the site of the largest Nuclear Power Plant in Europe.
> 
> View attachment 69021
> 
> Elsewhere, I've seen reports that Russian Forces are massing in Belarus North of Rivne IOT open up a new front.  This will most likely come during the next phase.


Would be a terrible shame if someone accidentally flattened Belarus. 



Altair said:


> So open question.
> 
> What are the benchmarks for Russian and Ukrainian success here?
> 
> Time to finish combat operations?
> 
> If we go way back, it took Germany 35 days to invade poland
> 
> If we go back 19 years, it took the US 42 days to invade Iraq.
> 
> Or are we basing this on losses inflicted?


UKR success is to hold out for a few weeks. 
   Russian logistics aren’t terribly robust.  

Also eventually one NATO country leader will see the polls, and decided getting re-elected means pushing the Hawks.  
   I suspect it will start with enforcing a No Fly.  

I also think many will realize the Big Bad Russian Bear has a bad case of arthritis, and it’s as good time as any for a re-alignment.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Remius said:


> I suspect the Dutch will make sure that happens.  They’ve seen this this show before and haven’t forgotten.


The Dutch are still looking to ‘right’ the wrong that they committed at Screbenica…..


----------



## Altair

suffolkowner said:


> I expected more than this from both sides as of right now but its a win for NATO if Russia keeps losing equipment and manpower as they appear to be. Ukrainian success has to be Russian withdrawal. I'm not sure what would contitute a Russian success but 30 days is probably too long to "liberate" their brothers from another mother. Already you see more and more support for Ukraine building and for furthur sanctions against Russia and greater movement towards NATO from Sweden and Finland


NATO is absolutely the net winner in this, as Finland and Sweden like join and join quickly (and out of the window goes the argument that the SAAB Gripen isn't a nato plane).

Considering that Ukraine is worlds better and more advanced than Iraq, I would say that 30 days wouldn't be too long, so long as the combat tempo starts to wind down in a week or so. 

I would say for Russia, 50 days.

Ukraine is pretty simple, not be puppeted by Russia.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

KevinB said:


> Would be a terrible shame if someone accidentally flattened Belarus.
> 
> 
> UKR success is to hold out for a few weeks.
> Russian logistics aren’t terribly robust.
> 
> Also eventually one NATO country leader will see the polls, and decided getting re-elected means pushing the Hawks.
> I suspect it will start with enforcing a No Fly.
> 
> I also think many will realize the Big Bad Russian Bear has a bad case of arthritis, and it’s as good time as any for a re-alignment.


I wouldn't bank on it.  Any intervention by the West or formations crossing borders will be met with one response:

Nuclear Weapons

Considering the sophisticated technological capabilities possessed by NATO and the overt support for Ukraine, I am surprised info war against Russia hasn't been more pronounced than it has been.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Would be a terrible shame if someone accidentally flattened Belarus.


It would be such a terrible shame, but its not going to happen.


KevinB said:


> UKR success is to hold out for a few weeks.
> Russian logistics aren’t terribly robust.


At this point, I don't think either side has terribly robust supply lines. 


KevinB said:


> Also eventually one NATO country leader will see the polls, and decided getting re-elected means pushing the Hawks.
> I suspect it will start with enforcing a No Fly.


Yeah, that's not happening. Its like saying some nation would have enforced a not fly zone against the americans in Iraq, its laughable.


KevinB said:


> I also think many will realize the Big Bad Russian Bear has a bad case of arthritis, and it’s as good time as any for a re-alignment.


Nukes make realignment hard. But holy smokes, if nukes were not a thing, Russia would be a prime target for a little regime change.


----------



## Czech_pivo

HiTechComms said:


> Poland will do Poland things.
> 
> Good the Germans never paid reparations for the atrocities they commited during WW2.  Poland in World court would have succeeded for the estimated 1T of dollars. So yeah screw the Germany. Poland would have done fine eventually. Russia and Germany both screwed Poland. To say EU came as the saviours because Poland was corrupt, yeah, thanks for the solution to the problem you caused. Again Screw Germany oh and pay up aholes.
> 
> Have some tough pills for you to swallow but the world all over is improving. Nothing to do with EU but all to do with opportunities, the boomers that were in charge are on the way out, thank fully.


Lol, I was hoping you’d bring up the German issue. 
I’m certain the Germans would be more than willing to pay for these reparations if in return Poland vacated all land that was German on 31 Aug 1939. 

Sound fair?

You can then try talking to Putin about regaining Eastern Galicia.


----------



## HiTechComms

Czech_pivo said:


> Lol, I was hoping you’d bring up the German issue.
> I’m certain the Germans would be more than willing to pay for these reparations if in return Poland vacated all land that was German on 31 Aug 1939.
> 
> Sound fair?
> 
> You can then try talking to Putin about regaining Eastern Galicia.


Oh ok lets play that stupid game. Who decided to set the borders? Not the Poles. Blame, Brits, France, Americans, Russians.

Maybe we should then go back 1000+ years and really get to the bottom of it. Trolling effort is an F from me.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

…


----------



## TacticalTea

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497654369407225859
Finally, some good fucking food


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> It would be such a terrible shame, but its not going to happen.
> 
> At this point, I don't think either side has terribly robust supply lines.
> 
> Yeah, that's not happening. Its like saying some nation would have enforced a not fly zone against the americans in Iraq, its laughable.
> 
> Nukes make realignment hard. But holy smokes, if nukes were not a thing, Russia would be a prime target for a little regime change.


Russia would only go Nuclear if they saw a world without Russia.  
   I can’t see Russia wanting to test who’s maintained Nuclear Arsenal and Anti-Ballistic System works better.    

Realignment doesn’t mean no Russia, it just means a few Roll Backs. 

No Fly over the Ukraine a NATO Partner is nothing like someone trying to put a No Fly for the USAF over Iraq.   If we wanted to be really ‘slick’ about it, just allow a Ukrainian Foreign Legion Air Force - a la Flying Tigers etc and lend the pilots stuff. 
  UKR FLAF F-22 or F-35 squadrons could do a No Fly and Russia really could not bitch based on their own track record.


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Hardly
> 
> Russia has 13,000 MBTs and 27,000+ AFVs.
> 
> It's day 3 of the war and the Russians are advancing still.
> 
> View attachment 69019
> 
> The Russians will move to link up the Forces in Kherson with those in the Donbass.
> 
> The other move will be to link up those IVO Sumy in the NE with those advancing on Kiev from the North.
> 
> Once that is complete, Breakout from Kherson to link up with the Kyiv Front and trap Ukrainian Forces on one side of the Dnieper.
> 
> We will see what it looks like a week from now.


But not all that kit is on the front, ill have to do the research when I get home but they have a fraction of that attacking Ukraine, where Ukraine has everything to defend. We play the numbers game but it's a mistake to count all Russian forces.


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> Oh ok lets play that stupid game. Who decided to set the borders? Not the Poles. Blame, Brits, France, Americans, Russians.
> 
> Maybe we should then go back 1000+ years and really get to the bottom of it. Trolling effort is an F from me.


You started the historical trolling about Germany first lol.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Russia would only go Nuclear if they saw a world without Russia.
> I can’t see Russia wanting to test who’s maintained Nuclear Arsenal and Anti-Ballistic System works better.


Russia hasn't been vague about how they plan to use their nukes. 


KevinB said:


> Realignment doesn’t mean no Russia, it just means a few Roll Backs.


In the heat of the moment, nobody knows who stops short of MAD.


KevinB said:


> No Fly over the Ukraine a NATO Partner is nothing like someone trying to put a No Fly for the USAF over Iraq.   If we wanted to be really ‘slick’ about it, just allow a Ukrainian Foreign Legion Air Force - a la Flying Tigers etc and lend the pilots stuff.
> UKR FLAF F-22 or F-35 squadrons could do a No Fly and Russia really could not bitch based on their own track record.


That would be amazing, but we all know 0 chance of it happening. Especially if a f22/35 gets shot down and Russians nab it.


----------



## Remius

Altair said:


> Russia hasn't been vague about how they plan to use their nukes.
> 
> In the heat of the moment, nobody knows who stops short of MAD.
> 
> That would be amazing, but we all know 0 chance of it happening. Especially if a f22/35 gets shot down and Russians nab it.


If Russia starts using things like Thermobaric weapons, or indiscriminate carpet bombing I can totally see a no fly zone being put in place. 

I think your 0 chance assessment is off but I guess we’ll see.   The longer Russia keeps this up the more support Ukraine is getting.  And the more people want to see something done about it,


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR:  Turkey says they'll stop RUS ships from entering the Black Sea
RUS:  UKR says Turkey says says they'll stop RUS ships from entering the Black Sea
Turkey:  Uh, no we didn't ...


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> But not all that kit is on the front, ill have to do the research when I get home but they have a fraction of that attacking Ukraine, where Ukraine has everything to defend. We play the numbers game but it's a mistake to count all Russian forces.


You insinuated in your post that Russia wouldn't be able to replace losses and it would take years to recover and also that Kyiv was Russia's new Stalingrad.

I merely aimed to show you that this isn't the case.  Even if the numbers provided by Ukraine were true (they probably aren't remotely accurate) it's a very small fraction of their equipment holdings.

I think it's a little early to be making comparisons to Stalingrad 😉


----------



## Altair

Remius said:


> If Russia starts using things like Thermobaric weapons, or indiscriminate carpet bombing I can totally see a no fly zone being put in place.
> 
> I think your 0 chance assessment is off but I guess we’ll see.   The longer Russia keeps this up the more support Ukraine is getting.  And the more people want to see something done about it,


I will say this. 0 Chance of F-22s and F35s being sent. 

Surplus f15s, f16s, f18s? Yeah, maybe they get sent.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Remius said:


> If Russia starts using things like Thermobaric weapons, or indiscriminate carpet bombing I can totally see a no fly zone being put in place ...


Sadly, I doubt if NATO's appetite for engaging RUS in the skies is any greater than their appetite for engaging RUS on the ground.


----------



## TacticalTea

Remius said:


> If Russia starts using things like Thermobaric weapons, or indiscriminate carpet bombing I can totally see a no fly zone being put in place.
> 
> I think your 0 chance assessment is off but I guess we’ll see.   The longer Russia keeps this up the more support Ukraine is getting.  And the more people want to see something done about it,


IME: Anyone who says anything has 0% chance of happening is 100% wrong.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Russia hasn't been vague about how they plan to use their nukes.


It’s a lot of talk, that really just diminishes their credibility on it.   


Altair said:


> In the heat of the moment, nobody knows who stops short of MAD.


Based on releases of intercepts, Vlad seems to be much more likely to take a few to the back of the head if he tries that plan.   
 His own team doesn’t seem to be very happy with the current situation.  



Altair said:


> That would be amazing, but we all know 0 chance of it happening. Especially if a f22/35 gets shot down and Russians nab it.


F-16, F/A-18 etc could do it less effectively but less risk to tech. Tell use a towel turn on the floor   Heck one could try out the AI Drone concept easily on a lot of the older mothballed fighter in the Boneyard.


----------



## Altair

TacticalTea said:


> IME: Anyone who says anything has 0% chance of happening is 100% wrong.


0 percent chance of us getting married?


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> It’s a lot of talk, that really just diminishes their credibility on it.
> 
> Based on releases of intercepts, Vlad seems to be much more likely to take a few to the back of the head if he tries that plan.
> His own team doesn’t seem to be very happy with the current situation.
> 
> 
> F-16, F/A-18 etc could do it less effectively but less risk to tech. Tell use a towel turn on the floor   Heck one could try out the AI Drone concept easily on a lot of the older mothballed fighter in the Boneyard.


Ukraine has been holding its own using 80 era soviet tech. 

Give them enough F16/F18s to bloody Russia and watch as they make those things shine.

Russia would like nothing better than to get their hands on a F22 or F35 shot down over Ukraine.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> 0 percent chance of us getting married?


Stranger shit has gone down.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

The Bread Guy said:


> UKR:  Turkey says they'll stop RUS ships from entering the Black Sea
> RUS:  UKR says Turkey says says they'll stop RUS ships from entering the Black Sea
> Turkey:  Uh, no we didn't ...


There is a treaty in place allowing passage, not sure if it's in anyone interest to change that? Not sure what clauses in the Treaty might apply to this situation. A shutdown of traffic might cause issues with their Syrian support. Stirring up trouble for Assad might be a thing, forcing Putin to fight two fronts at the same time, while guarding multiple others.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Ukraine has been holding its own using 80 era soviet tech.
> 
> Give them enough F16/F18s to bloody Russia and watch as they make those things shine.
> 
> Russia would like nothing better than to get their hands on a F22 or F35 shot down over Ukraine.


I don’t think holding their own is apt.  The Russians may be advancing slower than many expected and taking more damage, but they are still moving forward.  

   Nor Is the 80’s era tech comment accurate. 
The vast majority of the vehicle and air kills appear to be being done with current era NATO provided systems.


----------



## blacktriangle

KevinB said:


> Based on releases of intercepts, Vlad seems to be much more likely to take a few to the back of the head if he tries that plan.
> His own team doesn’t seem to be very happy with the current situation.


It should be becoming increasingly obvious to everyday Russians that Putin doesn't have their best interests in mind. So I hope this invasion does eventually lead to regime change - just not the one that Putin had in mind.


----------



## Jarnhamar

TacticalTea said:


> IME: Anyone who says anything has 0% chance of happening is 100% wrong.


Only a sith deals in absolutes.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Stranger shit has gone down.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> I don’t think holding their own is apt.  The Russians may be advancing slower than many expected and taking more damage, but they are still moving forward.
> 
> Nor Is the 80’s era tech comment accurate.
> The vast majority of the vehicle and air kills appear to be being done with current era NATO provided systems.


Are Ukrainian air force planes not shooting down Russian transports and the like?


----------



## Oldgateboatdriver

CTV news just had a report where they indicated that UKR has requested the International Red Cross's services to return the dead Russians remains home. UKR claims more than 1000 Russian soldiers death.

That is a smart move: 1000 Russian soldiers have an almost equal number of mothers, and as Russia found out in AFG, no dictatorship can stop 1000 mothers from talking.


----------



## SupersonicMax

Altair said:


> Ukraine has been holding its own using 80 era soviet tech.
> 
> Give them enough F16/F18s to bloody Russia and watch as they make those things shine.
> 
> Russia would like nothing better than to get their hands on a F22 or F35 shot down over Ukraine.


You can’t just jump from a Mig-29 to a Hornet without some significant training…


----------



## suffolkowner

Their tanks and fighter jets were being modernized though. The tanks especially have been upgraded with ERA and active and passive protective systems


----------



## Altair

SupersonicMax said:


> You can’t just jump from a Mig-29 to a Hornet without some significant training…


same logic applies to the f22/35 but those were being suggested, no?


----------



## Czech_pivo

SupersonicMax said:


> You can’t just jump from a Mig-29 to a Hornet without some significant training…


But if Poland rolled up their MIG 29s and SU 22’s to the Ukrainian border and the Ukrainians did a quick paint job, that could work. The US then steps in and gifts the Poles some F35s as replacements…..

EDIT: For all we know this could have already happened.  Same with the Soviet era helos. I would not be surprised at all.


----------



## KevinB

SupersonicMax said:


> You can’t just jump from a Mig-29 to a Hornet without some significant training…


Hold my beer  

I think it was more in response to my concept for a Flying Tiger type squadron


----------



## Jarnhamar

SupersonicMax said:


> You can’t just jump from a Mig-29 to a Hornet without some significant training…



Suppose a CF18 pilot found themselves in the cockpick of a Mig-29. Without any cross training would they be able to:

1. Get it off the ground and do rudimentary manoeuvres?
2. Use any weapon systems?


----------



## SeaKingTacco

Jarnhamar said:


> Suppose a CF18 pilot found themselves in the cockpick of a Mig-29. Without any cross training would they be able to:
> 
> 1. Get it off the ground and do rudimentary manoeuvres?
> 2. Use any weapon systems?











						How A Canadian Pilot Became The First Westerner To Fly The Feared MiG-29 Fulcrum
					

With only minutes to prepare, CF-18 Hornet pilot Bob Wade was let loose in the cockpit of one of the Soviet Union’s latest fighter jets.




					www.thedrive.com
				




I give you Capt Bob Wade, CAF hornet driver.


----------



## Kat Stevens

Jarnhamar said:


> Suppose a CF18 pilot found themselves in the cockpick of a Mig-29. Without any cross training would they be able to:
> 
> 1. Get it off the ground and do rudimentary manoeuvres?
> 2. Use any weapon systems?


Wanted: CF-18 drivers, Passing familiarity with the Cyrillic alphabet preferred but not required.


----------



## SupersonicMax

Jarnhamar said:


> Suppose a CF18 pilot found themselves in the cockpick of a Mig-29. Without any cross training would they be able to:
> 
> 1. Get it off the ground and do rudimentary manoeuvres?
> 2. Use any weapon systems?


I am a test pilot, trained to fly unfamiliar aircraft.  It takes me a couple of days of fairly intense study (and I don’t consider myself a slow learner) to learn about an aircraft, safely start it, taxi, takeoff and land (I flew a Mig once). To effectively tactically employ an aircraft (using unfamiliar tactics and weapons) would take months of training to have a basic level employment level, and probably over a year to be solid.


----------



## Altair

Kat Stevens said:


> Wanted: CF-18 drivers, Passing familiarity with the Cyrillic alphabet preferred but not required.








There are ways around the alphabet thing.


----------



## suffolkowner

suffolkowner said:


> It sure looks like Russia is planning on throwing everything at Ukraine. Pretty much everything they have at least in European Russia. The combined Western and Southern Military Districts have 250,000 troops and
> 
> 123 T90's
> 196 T80's
> 667 T72's
> *986 total tanks*
> 
> 457 BMP3's
> 603 BMP2's
> 865 BTR's
> 866 MT-LB's
> *2791 total AFV's
> 
> 623 self-propelled artillery over 120mm*
> 
> versus Ukraines 200,000 troops and
> 
> 480 T80's
> 700 T64's
> 300 T72's
> *1480 total tanks*
> 
> 1000 BMP2's
> 1000 BMP1's
> 500 BTR's
> *2500 total AFV's
> 
> over 700 self-propelled artillery over 120mm*
> 
> It will be interesting to see how Ukraine is able to counter the Russians if they invade, they have been pumping out domestic manpads and anti-tank missiles but still lack in air defence and have a very limited air force. Too bad that NATO has refused to help with this. A 100 F-16's and some modern air defence systems like NASAAMS might change the Russian attitude.
> 
> * Russian numbers in particular are taken from Rands Russia's Limit of Advance





suffolkowner said:


> What Ukraine really needs is greater air defence and fighters. I wonder if there is an appetite from some NATO members to provide air support or failing that to transfer some common fighters to Ukraine as they transition to F-16's?
> 
> 
> Mig-29Mig 21Su-22Su-24Su-25Poland2318Slovakia10Bulgaria118Romania24
> 
> I'm not sure if Ukraine would have use for Mig-21's or Su-22's but they already have Su-25's and Mig-29's. The 44 Mig-29's could easily be made up by NATO rotations


A couple of my posts before detailing in particular the fighting strength of Russias Western and Southern Military districts and some NATO nations with maybe compatible fighters


----------



## armrdsoul77

Sophisticated flight simulator programs for desktop computers....could start learning cockpit layout and switchology for western aircraft.





__





						DCS: F/A-18C Hornet
					

Our Hornet is the culmination of more than 40 man years of intense research, technology development, art creation, and ground-breaking coding. The Hornet brings the first, true, multi-role fighter to the skies of DCS World with equally impressive air-to-surface and air-to-air capabilities. DCS...




					www.digitalcombatsimulator.com


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497677986136576002
Ukrainian MP saying that the next 30-60 minutes are about to get real interesting.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497677986136576002
> Ukrainian MP saying that the next 30-60 minutes are about to get real interesting.


It’s after 1am there, maybe a pre-dawn pounding before a daylight assault. Putin trying to wrap Kiev with a bow before Monday’s opening of the stock market.


----------



## lenaitch

blacktriangle said:


> It should be becoming increasingly obvious to everyday Russians that Putin doesn't have their best interests in mind. So I hope this invasion does eventually lead to regime change - just not the one that Putin had in mind.


Given their level of media control, we don't know what they do and don't know.


Oldgateboatdriver said:


> CTV news just had a report where they indicated that UKR has requested the International Red Cross's services to return the dead Russians remains home. UKR claims more than 1000 Russian soldiers death.
> 
> That is a smart move: 1000 Russian soldiers have an almost equal number of mothers, and as Russia found out in AFG, no dictatorship can stop 1000 mothers from talking.


Russia could warehouse the bodies until after this is over.


----------



## Remius

lenaitch said:


> Given their level of media control, we don't know what they do and don't know.
> 
> Russia could warehouse the bodies until after this is over.


I just saw an interesting analysis of that.  

Russia media seems to be using recorded prepared reports and nothing live.  As well they seem to be having difficulty countering social media that people are able to get around to accessing.


----------



## Czech_pivo

lenaitch said:


> Given their level of media control, we don't know what they do and don't know.
> 
> Russia could warehouse the bodies until after this is over.


They certainly could, but if the Red Cross documented/videoed each and everyone and posted it online, could of hear for Putin to suppress it.


----------



## Kirkhill

Czech_pivo said:


> The Russian column got tore up pretty good.
> Can anyone tell if it was an air strike, artillery or javelins?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497570462464942086


I'm going make a Wild Ass Guess and suggest that is a Rosgvardia "Battalion".   20 or so high capacity wheeled passenger vehicles, complete with buses, RVs and SUV with a couple of armoured Troop Carrying Trucks for good measure.

I wonder if there were any survivors?


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> A couple of my posts before detailing in particular the fighting strength of Russias Western and Southern Military districts and some NATO nations with maybe compatible fighters


2700 AFVs and their losses are already a 5th of that. Mind you we know forces were brought in from Siberia so not an exact estimate any more. Their losses are mounting though. Western estimates said 96 hours Kyiv would hold, every hour long they hold, is an hour more to buy time, and wear down the Russians. Russia is also going straight for Kyiv, their rear echelons probably aren't heavily reinforced, if the Ukrainian army can muster a large enough force, a counter attack could cut the Russians off.


----------



## Kirkhill

Halifax Tar said:


> I'm not going to say the tail should wag the dog... But without a capable a strong supply train your shiny death machines and people tend to become ineffective fast.



On the other hand, if you stay in your own backyard you can do wonders with an assault rifle, a panzerfaust (NLAW) and crate of Molotov cocktails.
The beer is on hand and nice and cold.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> 2700 AFVs and their losses are already a 5th of that. Mind you we know forces were brought in from Siberia so not an exact estimate any more. Their losses are mounting though. Western estimates said 96 hours Kyiv would hold, every hour long they hold, is an hour more to buy time, and wear down the Russians. Russia is also going straight for Kyiv, their rear echelons probably aren't heavily reinforced, if the Ukrainian army can muster a large enough force, a counter attack could cut the Russians off.


Problem with large forces in the open is they are extremely vulnerable to air power.


----------



## HiTechComms

The levels of propaganda on both sides is astounding.  5th Generational warfare.

Hard to believe anything.


----------



## lenaitch

Czech_pivo said:


> They certainly could, but if the Red Cross documented/videoed each and everyone and posted it online, could of hear for Putin to suppress it.


They could, but I'm not sure the ICRC would do that.  It would ruin their standing and ability to operate.  From their mission statement:

_The International Committee of the Red Cross is an impartial, neutral and independent organization whose exclusively humanitarian mission is to protect the lives and dignity of victims of armed conflict and other situations of violence and to provide them with assistance._​


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Russian army deploys its TOS-1 heavy flamethrower, capable of vaporizing human bodies, near Ukrainian border, footage shows
					

CNN footage from inside Russia shows a TOS-1 heavy flamethrower mounted on a T-72 tank chassis being deployed near Kharkiv, Ukraine.




					www.businessinsider.com
				




So.... thermobaric capable weapons entering the fold?


----------



## Kirkhill

Czech_pivo said:


> The Russians paid a heavy price here.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497584916443578373



I'm reckoning they are happy enough with the performance of the NLAW.

Walking up the middle of a road, towards a firefight, with burnt out vehicles all around you and bumping into a tank pointing your way. And continue walking, wondering if there might be a better target up the road.


----------



## Altair

rmc_wannabe said:


> Russian army deploys its TOS-1 heavy flamethrower, capable of vaporizing human bodies, near Ukrainian border, footage shows
> 
> 
> CNN footage from inside Russia shows a TOS-1 heavy flamethrower mounted on a T-72 tank chassis being deployed near Kharkiv, Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.businessinsider.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So.... thermobaric capable weapons entering the fold?


Without a doubt. 

Russia tried to do this the clean way, Ukraine resisted more than they anticipated, so its gloves off time now.


----------



## Altair

Makes me wonder who is running this show in Russia though. Are the generals free to do as they please, or is Putin making every decision on on the ground?

Because I feel like the generals would have wanted to open with thermobaric weapons as opposed to resorting to them when bogged down.


----------



## HiTechComms

When this is all over.. Russia will now have more ethnical motivated terrorists.  Hundreds of years of wrongs are gone result is some very nasty crap.


----------



## blacktriangle

Speculation on my part, but I think there's a chance Putin is suffering serious physical health issues. He doesn't seem to care anymore, more erratic etc. Perhaps this is a last shot at remaining relevant, an attempt to cement some kind of twisted legacy? Show of strength to demonstrate he's still in control?

Wounded animals are always more dangerous, aren't they? Perhaps the world won't have to wait long to be rid of Putin.


----------



## Altair

blacktriangle said:


> Speculation on my part, but I think there's a chance Putin is suffering serious physical health issues. He doesn't seem to care anymore, more erratic etc. Perhaps this is a last shot at remaining relevant, an attempt to cement some kind of twisted legacy? Show of strength to show he's still in control?
> 
> Wounded animals are always more dangerous, aren't they? Perhaps the world won't have to wait long to be rid of Putin.


While that would be comforting, that would have to mean that he's been suffering from health issues since 2014. 

Every year from 2014 he has been upping the pressure on Ukraine to change course, and every year Ukraine drifted more and more to the west. This invasion should shock nobody, Putin has been building up to this for 8 years.


----------



## HiTechComms

Altair said:


> While that would be comforting, that would have to mean that he's been suffering from health issues since 2014.
> 
> Every year from 2014 he has been upping the pressure on Ukraine to change course, and every year Ukraine drifted more and more to the west. This invasion should shock nobody, Putin has been building up to this for 8 years.


Started in 2004.

At least COVID is no longer a headliner for the MSM.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> I'm reckoning they are happy enough with the performance of the NLAW.
> 
> Walking up the middle of a road, towards a firefight, with burnt out vehicles all around you and bumping into a tank pointing your way. And continue walking, wondering if there might be a better target up the road.


Giant set of balls attached to a body containing a small sized brain….


----------



## Altair

HiTechComms said:


> Started in 2004.
> 
> At least COVID is no longer a headliner for the MSM.


Also saved the political careers of Trudeau and Johnson. 

Boris especially was facing an open caucus revolt before this. Trudeau was taking heat over the EA. Somehow made things worse for Biden though.


----------



## suffolkowner

The invasion isn't a shock but I can't figure it out. Not the realistic endgame or how it is being processed. It's early yet and Russia may tighten it all down in the next 30 days but at quite a large cost. The Germans and Italians are moving towards kicking Russia out of SWIFT and Finland is going to vote on NATO. Putin has also put himself in a bad situation by putting all his money in other peoples control at some point the temptation will be to get rid of him and keep it especially if they look to come under sanctions themselves. Hard to rule the jungle when you can't roar anymore and Putin is looking decidely weak to me right now


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kat Stevens said:


> Wanted: CF-18 drivers, Passing familiarity with the Cyrillic alphabet preferred but not required.


We have your man ...


----------



## Czech_pivo

HiTechComms said:


> Started in 2004.
> 
> At least COVID is no longer a headliner for the MSM.


It started in 1991 and then in 1943 and then in 1918 and then in 1775 and then in 1707 and finally in 1654.

Those are just some of the years that the Ukrainians said F - you to the Russians.


----------



## Altair

suffolkowner said:


> The invasion isn't a shock but I can't figure it out. Not the realistic endgame or how it is being processed. It's early yet and Russia may tighten it all down in the next 30 days but at quite a large cost. The Germans and Italians are moving towards kicking Russia out of SWIFT and Finland is going to vote on NATO. Putin has also put himself in a bad situation by putting all his money in other peoples control at some point the temptation will be to get rid of him and keep it especially if they look to come under sanctions themselves. Hard to rule the jungle when you can't roar anymore and Putin is looking decidely weak to me right now


I think its because we are looking at this from from a Ukraine undefeated viewpoint. 

If Russia can crush Ukraine, and suddenly pushed up to 3 more NATO countries, that does a lot to unsettle Europe.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Not to be culturally self-decrepit but when I read stories of Canadians claiming PTSD from horn honking, or Canadian soldiers getting no field MELS because they can't wash their hands, and compare that with the we're seeing people go through in Ukraine it's hard not to feel we're pretty fragile as a society.

Even after 20 years of the CAF becoming popular again with the media people still shit their pants when they see local reservists doing a ruck march.


----------



## Altair

Jarnhamar said:


> Not to be culturally self-decrepit but when I read stories of Canadians claiming PTSD from horn honking, or Canadian soldiers getting no field MELS because they can't wash their hands, and compare that with the we're seeing people go through in Ukraine it's hard not to feel we're pretty fragile as a society.
> 
> Even after 20 years of the CAF becoming popular again with the media people still shit their pants when they see local reservists doing a ruck march.


Do not make light of other peoples mental health. The which thing is worse thing is never the right way to approach mental health, everyone is effected differently and by different things.


----------



## The Bread Guy

blacktriangle said:


> ... Wounded animals are always more dangerous, aren't they? ...


Almost as much as much as pissed-off ex's, which is another comparison to the dynamic I've seen on social media.


HiTechComms said:


> The levels of propaganda on both sides is astounding.  5th Generational warfare.
> 
> Hard to believe anything.


True for all sides of any conflict, but remember, though, #NothingHasEverythingButEverythingHasSomething


Jarnhamar said:


> ... Even after 20 years of the CAF becoming popular again with the media people still shit their pants when they see local reservists doing a ruck march.


Remember, even during Afghanistan, "Canada" wasn't at war, bits of it were.  Support was, as others have said, a mile wide and an inch deep.


----------



## HiTechComms

Altair said:


> Also saved the political careers of Trudeau and Johnson.
> 
> Boris especially was facing an open caucus revolt before this. Trudeau was taking heat over the EA. Somehow made things worse for Biden though.


I think most Political leaders will be changing over.

Definitely worse for Biden, he lifted Trump sanctions and allowed russia more room. Now Biden is reapplying trump sanctions.  I don't know but it appears Trump was the only pres that didn't start shit but ended a lot.

Russia doesn't have much left to lose they have been under sanctions, they will most likely kicked from SWIFT.  They are at the point of "we don't care and we still have nukes".


----------



## HiTechComms

Jarnhamar said:


> Not to be culturally self-decrepit but when I read stories of Canadians claiming PTSD from horn honking, or Canadian soldiers getting no field MELS because they can't wash their hands, and compare that with the we're seeing people go through in Ukraine it's hard not to feel we're pretty fragile as a society.
> 
> Even after 20 years of the CAF becoming popular again with the media people still shit their pants when they see local reservists doing a ruck march.


Ruck.. hehe. I don't think any one is fit enough anymore.


----------



## Altair

HiTechComms said:


> I think most Political leaders will be changing over.
> 
> Definitely worse for Biden, he lifted Trump sanctions and allowed russia more room. Now Biden is reapplying trump sanctions.  I don't know but it appears Trump was the only pres that didn't start shit.
> 
> Russia doesn't have much left to lose they have been under sanctions, they will most likely kicked from SWIFT.  They are at the point of "we don't care and we still have nukes".


Soviet Russia survived not being integrated into the west for 40 years, I think Russia can withstand sanctions and being kicked from swift for as long as it takes the west to lose resolve. 

They are a petro state, and not very integrated into the European and North American economies.


----------



## suffolkowner

Altair said:


> I think its because we are looking at this from from a Ukraine undefeated viewpoint.
> 
> If Russia can crush Ukraine, and suddenly pushed up to 3 more NATO countries, that does a lot to unsettle Europe.


Sure and thats why its way too early to judge yet, but the Ukrainian populace are never going to be compliant enough for Russia to just walk away. The democratic and anti-corruption seed has been planted. And if Sweden or Finland or both join NATO versus a Ukraine which was at least 10 yrs away from joining. Plus the loss of equipment if it continues is going to neuter the Bear in the shorterm. Any fighter jet losses especially as Russia has been having a hard time building new ones


----------



## HiTechComms

Altair said:


> Soviet Russia survived not being integrated into the west for 40 years, I think Russia can withstand sanctions and being kicked from swift for as long as it takes the west to lose resolve.
> 
> They are a petro state, and not very integrated into the European and North American economies.


Actually SWIFT removal might be good for them. It will cause everyone to buy their energy with Rubbles and not petro dollars. I think the removal of the petro dollar might be more worrying to the Americans.

I am sure China will cozy up to Russians. They had initially 10 billion trade agreement now its up to 140 billion.


----------



## Czech_pivo

HiTechComms said:


> When this is all over.. Russia will now have more ethnical motivated terrorists.  Hundreds of years of wrongs are gone result is some very nasty crap.


If I know anything about my Polish side of the family, they have very very long memories of slights, transgressions, perceived transgressions, disagreements and such. All Putin and Russia is doing is giving more fuel to Ukrainians to hate Russians even more and it’s most likely reawakened Polish dislike of Russians as well.

My British side of the family is nothing like the above listed Polish side. It’s quite staid and boring, never wishing to offend anyone and always trying to ensure that the family name is well regarded, lol.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Hot off the press.

BREAKINGWestern allies will remove Russian banks from Swift​The EU, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States have just released a co-ordinated statement condemning the Russian invasion.


BBC as the source


----------



## HiTechComms

Czech_pivo said:


> If I know anything about my Polish side of the family, they have very very long memories of slights, transgressions, perceived transgressions, disagreements and such. All Putin and Russia is doing is giving more fuel to Ukrainians to hate Russians even more and it’s most likely reawakened Polish dislike of Russians as well.
> 
> My British side of the family is nothing like the above listed Polish side. It’s quite staid and boring, never wishing to offend anyone and always trying to ensure that the family name is well regarded, lol.


Reawakened? lol Never went away.

"Fear the Germans for what they can do and hate the Russians for who they are"


----------



## Jarnhamar

Altair said:


> Do not make light of other peoples mental health. The which thing is worse thing is never the right way to approach mental health, everyone is effected differently and by different things.


It's nuanced but you can point out someone is fragile without making light of them or their situation. Not all people with MH issues are fragile nor do all people who are fragile have MH issues.


----------



## Jarnhamar

blacktriangle said:


> Wounded animals are always more dangerous, aren't they?


Healthy animals are more dangerous.


----------



## Czech_pivo

HiTechComms said:


> Reawakened? lol Never went away.
> 
> "Fear the Germans for what they can do and hate the Russians for who they are"


The Germans of today have been neutered, they are not to be feared.


----------



## HiTechComms

Czech_pivo said:


> The Germans of today have been neutered, they are not to be feared.


Fool me once.. Fool me twice.. I don't think third time will happen.


----------



## dapaterson

Unconfirmed reports that Chechen general Magomed Tushayev has been KIA.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497657772980244483


----------



## Czech_pivo

dapaterson said:


> Unconfirmed reports that Chechen general Magomed Tushayev has been KIA.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497657772980244483


Enjoy finding out there isn’t any Virgins waiting for you in hell.


----------



## dapaterson

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497675529490767881


----------



## Jarnhamar

dapaterson said:


> Unconfirmed reports that Chechen general Magomed Tushayev has been KIA.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497657772980244483


Cap badge looks vaguely familiar.


----------



## TacticalTea

dapaterson said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497675529490767881


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

dapaterson said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497675529490767881


Spoke out too soon against Mr. Putin??


----------



## Kirkhill

Jarnhamar said:


> Cap badge looks vaguely familiar.


Quick! Give that man a quart of whitewash!


----------



## dapaterson

Jarnhamar said:


> Cap badge looks vaguely familiar.



Obviously The Royal Chechen Regiment.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

suffolkowner said:


> The invasion isn't a shock but I can't figure it out. Not the realistic endgame or how it is being processed. It's early yet and Russia may tighten it all down in the next 30 days but at quite a large cost. The Germans and Italians are moving towards kicking Russia out of SWIFT and Finland is going to vote on NATO. Putin has also put himself in a bad situation by putting all his money in other peoples control at some point the temptation will be to get rid of him and keep it especially if they look to come under sanctions themselves. Hard to rule the jungle when you can't roar anymore and Putin is looking decidely weak to me right now



How can you not figure it out?  This has been building for the past decade.  It started with Euro Maidan and the pivot of the Ukraine away from Russia and toward the EU, the ousting of Yanukovych.  

This led to the Russian annexation of the Crimea.  We've continued to pump weapons in to Ukraine, beef up their Military, etc.  We aren't innocent bystanders in this conflict by any means and Ukraine is a proxy-conflict between the West and Russia.

The Russian State/Putin Regime has made the determination that the current situation was/is untenable and a red line has bee  crossed.

Thus, the need to invade the Ukraine and annex it.

The entire Casus-Belli from the Russian perspective is there for all to see.



dapaterson said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497675529490767881



Probably had some help.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

dapaterson said:


> Obviously The Royal Chechen Regiment.



CFB Petawawa mobilizing!


----------



## Jarnhamar

Spacing and lack of winter whites really slaps.


----------



## suffolkowner

Humphrey Bogart said:


> How can you not figure it out?


I just can't see the win here for Russia. I also don't understand whats going on with the invasion plan, but like I said its early yet


----------



## Remius

suffolkowner said:


> I just can't see the win here for Russia. I also don't understand whats going on with the invasion plan, but like I said its early yet


Russia’s plan didn’t survive contact.


----------



## ArmyRick

To be honest, there are way too many X factors to call this war yet.

I am surprised Ukraine has put up such a good fight against the Russian Juggernaut. However when one defends their own home, it really changes things


----------



## dapaterson

Poland is boycotting a World Cup qualifying match with Russia.  So, how are the fractious political factions in Poland responding to each other over this?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497637701373382673


----------



## Altair

Remius said:


> Russia’s plan didn’t survive contact.


I know it feels like longer, but it has only been 3 days.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

suffolkowner said:


> I just can't see the win here for Russia. I also don't understand whats going on with the invasion plan, but like I said its early yet


I think reclaiming hegemony over a Country of 44 million people, gaining control of all gas infrastructure leading in to Europe, plus dominating the Black Sea are pretty big gains.  

Look at the alternatives from a Russian perspective and it makes sense.  They've been saying we haven't been taking them seriously, maybe now we will?

Our answer has been SANCTIONS, SANCTIONS, SANCTIONS. 

Make poor Country poorer, sounds like a way to make them take our point of view 🤣


----------



## HiTechComms

suffolkowner said:


> I just can't see the win here for Russia. I also don't understand whats going on with the invasion plan, but like I said its early yet


Maybe its not suppose to be a win in the normal metrics. 

I may not with but then I will not lose either strategy. The Russians will cripple Ukraine.


----------



## daftandbarmy

HiTechComms said:


> Maybe its not suppose to be a win in the normal metrics.
> 
> I may not with but then I will not lose either strategy. The Russians will cripple Ukraine.



This high intensity combat thing works both ways, apparently


----------



## HiTechComms

dapaterson said:


> Poland is boycotting a World Cup qualifying match with Russia.  So, how are the fractious political factions in Poland responding to each other over this?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497637701373382673


Poland has more of a culture of talking with the opposite side of the isle. We will drink vodka and beer and at the end we will have a discourse and shake hands and go home. Unlike the West, I don't like your political opinions thus you are Hitler and a Nazi.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> Hot off the press.
> 
> BREAKINGWestern allies will remove Russian banks from Swift​The EU, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States have just released a co-ordinated statement condemning the Russian invasion.
> 
> 
> BBC as the source




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497710808683491342
it begins


----------



## PPCLI Guy

HiTechComms said:


> Ruck.. hehe. I don't think any one is fit enough anymore.


Hmm.  What are you basing that on?  I assume that your hiatus since Nov is because you were doing BMOQ, but you have still, unless I am missing something, never been to a unit.  So what are you basing your judgment on?


----------



## Dana381

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497574564460650502
Ukrainian losses according to Russia.


----------



## HiTechComms

PPCLI Guy said:


> Hmm.  What are you basing that on?  I assume that your hiatus since Nov is because you were doing BMOQ, but you have still, unless I am missing something, never been to a unit.  So what are you basing your judgment on?


The CAF and the Pandemic happened that's what


----------



## PPCLI Guy

HiTechComms said:


> The CAF and the Pandemic happened that's what


Sorry what?  Are you seeing signs of this in the unit at which you are an Officer?  Every day when ypu go to work?  During morning PT?  I am confused...


----------



## HiTechComms

PPCLI Guy said:


> Sorry what?  Are you seeing signs of this in the unit at which you are an Officer?  Every day when ypu go to work?  During morning PT?  I am confused...


Nah its a comment on something else. Stupid inside joke. Ignore.


----------



## PPCLI Guy

Ok.  I'd still like to know how you came to your assessment of the CAF ability to ruck...is it because you see it in your unit?  Are your troops unfit?


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497714109521043462
Latest from the UK MOD


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> How can you not figure it out?  This has been building for the past decade.  It started with Euro Maidan and the pivot of the Ukraine away from Russia and toward the EU, the ousting of Yanukovych.
> 
> This led to the Russian annexation of the Crimea.  We've continued to pump weapons in to Ukraine, beef up their Military, etc.  *We aren't innocent bystanders in this conflict by any means* and Ukraine is a proxy-conflict between the West and Russia.
> 
> The Russian State/Putin Regime has made the determination that the current situation was/is untenable and a red line has bee  crossed.
> 
> Thus, the need to invade the Ukraine and annex it.
> 
> The entire Casus-Belli from the Russian perspective is there for all to see.
> 
> 
> 
> Probably had some help.



The problem is that we have been treating this as if we are a little bit pregnant!

A firmer demonstration of commitment might have provoked more sooner.  On the other hand it might have aborted the entire issue.


----------



## ModlrMike

The Ukrainians need to turn this into another "graveyard of empires".  From what I've seen online, and what my Ukrainian friends tell me, they're quite prepared to do just this. Make the effort far too costly.


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> The problem is that we have been treating this as if we are a little bit pregnant!
> 
> I firmer demonstration of commitment might have provoked more sooner.  On the other hand it might have aborted the entire issue.


Two months ago NATO could have stopped this by putting a few DIV into the Ukraine and giving Russia a red line to move back to (from Crimea, and the other occupation zones.   

It sure as hell would have stopped the invasion.   

All we did is sit and watch.  
  Worrying to much about our current standard of living as opposed to ‘manning the Fuck Up’ and doing the right thing.


----------



## Kirkhill

And yet, still,

Pace Robert Reich of the Guardian, and other places.



> 3. *Then why not impose sanctions on *_*them*_*?* Because that would seriously harm consumers in Europe and the US – pushing up energy prices and worsening inflation (now running at 7.5% annually in the US, a 40-year high). Although the US imports very little Russian oil or natural gas, oil and natural gas markets are global – which means shortages that push up prices in one part of the world will have similar effects elsewhere. *The price of oil in the US is already approaching $100 a barrel, up from about $65 a year ago. The price of gas at the pump is averaging $3.53 a gallon, according to AAA. For most Americans, that gas-pump price is the single most important indicator of inflation, not just because they fuel their cars with gas but because the cost is emblazoned in big numbers outside every gas station in America. *(The biggest beneficiaries of these price increases, by the way: energy companies like Halliburton, Occidental Petroleum and Schlumberger, which are now leading the S&P 500. Anyone in favor of putting a windfall profits tax on them?)











						Eight sobering realities about Putin’s invasion of Ukraine | Robert Reich
					

The US and allies must be clear-eyed about this: what might the economic and political ripple effects of the war be?




					www.theguardian.com
				




And what would that do to the Midterms?


----------



## TacticalTea

Kirkhill said:


> And yet, still,
> 
> Pace Robert Reich of the Guardian, and other places.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Eight sobering realities about Putin’s invasion of Ukraine | Robert Reich
> 
> 
> The US and allies must be clear-eyed about this: what might the economic and political ripple effects of the war be?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And what would that do to the Midterms?


None of this would be applicable if we hadn't shot ourselves in the foot with regards to oil and gas.

Obama made the US energy independent... and Biden undid his buddy's progress.

And we have our fair share of blame on this side of the border too, what with cancelling pipelines, tolerating terrorism against our pipelines, or blocking LNG terminal projects.

Total dog and pony show because climate change, yet no progress is made on nuclear power.

REGARDLESS of all that, there's still an easy solution: Remove all gas taxes, and still go ahead with sanctions on RUS O&G.


----------



## HiTechComms

Kirkhill said:


> And yet, still,
> 
> Pace Robert Reich of the Guardian, and other places.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Eight sobering realities about Putin’s invasion of Ukraine | Robert Reich
> 
> 
> The US and allies must be clear-eyed about this: what might the economic and political ripple effects of the war be?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And what would that do to the Midterms?


Midterms gone be interesting.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Altair said:


> Soviet Russia survived not being integrated into the west for 40 years, I think Russia can withstand sanctions and being kicked from swift for as long as it takes the west to lose resolve.
> 
> They are a petro state, and not very integrated into the European and North American economies.


Lots of difference between the citizenry of the Soviet Union and modern day Russia. The Soviet populace  were mostly uneducated, dirt poor peasants who lived a very rough, austere life. Modern day Russians on he other hand, especially the younger generation, are well educated and have grown-up with owning cars, TVs, the internet, and travelling. 

To use one example, every year millions of Russians travelled outside the country for holidays, a luxury very few Soviet peasants enjoyed. 



> *Where are Russian tourists travelling to?*
> 
> The top destinations for Russian tourists in the first half of 2018 were:
> 
> Turkey – 2,281,000 (+40%)
> Finland – 1,559,000 (+1%)
> Kazakhstan – 1,287,000 (+1%)
> _Ukraine – 1,074,000 (+8%)_
> China – 908,000 (-4%)
> Thailand – 679,000 (+18%)
> Estonia – 858,000 (+5%)
> Germany – 591,000 (+4%)
> UAE – 545,000 (+52%)
> 
> Link


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497751200665636868


----------



## Altair

Retired AF Guy said:


> Lots of difference between the citizenry of the Soviet Union and modern day Russia. The Soviet populace  were mostly uneducated, dirt poor peasants who lived a very rough, austere life. Modern day Russians on he other hand, especially the younger generation, are well educated and have grown-up with owning cars, TVs, the internet, and travelling.
> 
> To use one example, every year millions of Russians travelled outside the country for holidays, a luxury very few Soviet peasants enjoyed.


Could be possible that Russia has gone soft, but lets never forget this is the land of Catherine, Alexander I, Lenin, and Stalin. 

Russia has historically weathered a heck of a lot of suffering without crying uncle.


----------



## Altair

Remius said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497751200665636868


Better have a fighter escort because Ukraine has had success dropping big russian planes.


----------



## Good2Golf

Retired AF Guy said:


> Lots of difference between the citizenry of the Soviet Union and modern day Russia. The Soviet populace  were mostly uneducated, dirt poor peasants who lived a very rough, austere life. Modern day Russians on he other hand, especially the younger generation, are well educated and have grown-up with owning cars, TVs, the internet, and travelling.
> 
> To use one example, every year millions of Russians travelled outside the country for holidays, a luxury very few Soviet peasants enjoyed.


Finland’s probably going drop a bit on that list once it joins NATO… 😉


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Better have a fighter escort because Ukraine has had success dropping big russian planes.


More to eat…
  THAAD is hungry 😋


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> More to eat…
> THAAD is hungry 😋


I hope the USA has learned its lesson here, and floods Taiwan with AA and AT weapons.

It is clearly too late to prevent a Ukrainian invasion, but arm Taiwan to the teeth and it will make Beijing think twice after watching what is happening in Ukraine.

And Ukraine is, arguably, the easier of the two nations to invade.


----------



## OceanBonfire

Ten innocent civilians of Greek origin (were) killed today by Russian air strikes close to Mariupol:









						Greece says 10 expats killed in Ukraine, summons Russian ambassador
					

Ten Greek nationals have been killed and six others wounded by Russian bombing near the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, Greece said on Saturday, while saying it had summoned Russia's ambassador to the Foreign Ministry on Monday after a verbal demarche.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Haggis

Good2Golf said:


> Finland’s probably going drop a bit on that list once it joins NATO… 😉


Finland has been told by Putin "if you move to join NATO,  you're next".   The Russians are in for a hell of a fight if they go down that mountain road.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> I hope the USA has learned its lesson here, and floods Taiwan with AA and AT weapons.
> 
> It is clearly too late to prevent a Ukrainian invasion, but arm Taiwan to the teeth and it will make Beijing think twice after watching what is happening in Ukraine.
> 
> And Ukraine is, arguably, the easier of the two nations to invade.


I’m also sure the Chinese are paying very close attention to the effectiveness of NATO/US Missiles - both AA and ATGM, as well as the JSTAR/ISR links.


----------



## KevinB

Haggis said:


> Finland has been told by Putin "if you move to join NATO,  you're next".   The Russians are in for a hell of a fight if they go down that mountain road.


Finland says, hold my Vodka….


----------



## Good2Golf

Haggis said:


> Finland has been told by Putin "if you move to join NATO,  you're next".   The Russians are in for a hell of a fight if they go down that mountain road.


----------



## MilEME09

Good2Golf said:


> View attachment 69033


It's all of them isn't it?


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497753928129204224


----------



## TacticalTea

OceanBonfire said:


> Ten innocent civilians of Greek origin (were) killed today by Russian air strikes close to Mariupol:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Greece says 10 expats killed in Ukraine, summons Russian ambassador
> 
> 
> Ten Greek nationals have been killed and six others wounded by Russian bombing near the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, Greece said on Saturday, while saying it had summoned Russia's ambassador to the Foreign Ministry on Monday after a verbal demarche.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com





MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497753928129204224


 
In view of both those events... let me conduct a little cheerleader routine:


F!

L-Y!

Z!

O-N!

& E!

NO!

FLY ZONE!

GIVE ME A

NO FLY ZONE!


----------



## Kirkhill

TacticalTea said:


> In view of both those events... let me conduct a little cheerleader routine:
> 
> 
> F!
> 
> L-Y!
> 
> Z!
> 
> O-N!
> 
> & E!
> 
> NO!
> 
> FLY ZONE!
> 
> GIVE ME A
> 
> NO FLY ZONE!



You've done that before!


----------



## Infanteer

TacticalTea said:


> In view of both those events... let me conduct a little cheerleader routine:


Yeah, because NATO and Russian jets shooting at each other is all we need right now.


----------



## KevinB

Infanteer said:


> Yeah, because NATO and Russian jets shooting at each other is all we need right now.


Why not now rather than 2-3 weeks? 

I guess if we wait they probably won’t have fuel anyway.


----------



## brihard

HiTechComms said:


> I guess starting a war is a good way to kick start the economy. As an eastern European its concerning but not that much.



This one’s gonna age like milk.


----------



## RangerRay

From BBC:



			https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60542877
		




> Posted at 21:0021:00
> Ukraine defences hold as Russia hurls force at Kyiv - analysts​Social embed from twitter​
> ReportReport this social embed, make a complaint
> Military operation analysts at the US-based Institute for the Study of War have put out their latest assessment of Russia's campaign. After Saturday's fighting - Day 3 of the war.
> They say:
> 
> Russia has "failed to encircle and isolate Kyiv with mechanised and airborne attacks as it had clearly planned to do".
> The Russian advance is now focused on straightforward assaults on Ukraine's capital, with attacking drives from the city's north-east and a narrow flank of the Dnipro River, which lies next to Kyiv.
> Russian forces have "temporarily abandoned" their attacks on Chernikiv and Kharkiv, noting forces are appearing to bypass those cities to drive on to Kyiv.
> Russia's attacks on those north-east and eastern cities failed because they were "poorly designed and executed", and they faced "more determined and effective resistance than expected", the Institute said.
> But Russia's successes in Ukraine's south pose the most danger and "threaten to unhinge Ukraine's successful defences to the north and north-east".





> 20:44
> Ukraine's hotline for Russian military families flooded with calls​Earlier we reported that Ukraine had set up a hotline for the family members of Russian soldiers.
> The Kyiv Independent now reports the hotline has received "hundreds of calls" already.
> The service is called "Come back alive from Ukraine” and was launched on Saturday by Ukraine's Defence Ministry.
> "On this phone line, you can find out whether your relatives are still alive, taken prisoner, injured, and you can decide when and how to take the body of your deceased relative," an official said.
> The hotline is a direct appeal to Russians, thousands of whom have been protesting against President Putin's war in Ukraine despite being faced with arrest.
> Russians and Ukrainians have described each other as "like brothers and sisters" at anti-war protests around the world in recent days.


----------



## MilEME09

Russian Navy Suspected Of Firing On Civilian Tanker, Crew Injured
					

The Russian Navy is suspected of firing on a Moldova-flagged merchant chemical tanker in the Black Sea on Feb. 25, 2022, forcing all crew overboard and severely injuring two.




					funker530.com
				




Russia attacking civilian tankers bound for Ukraine in the black sea. Oh boy its war crime o clock in Russia I guess


----------



## HiTechComms

brihard said:


> This one’s gonna age like milk.


Which part the Kick start an economy or not being concerned?

Eastern Europeans are simply tough people, seen it all.

Economy kick start, some one has to produce weapons and sell them. (look who got rich after ww2, you know also those bombs for peace.)

World will go on. _shrug_ Then again I am bit cynical.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497754623729451009


----------



## brihard

HiTechComms said:


> Which part the Kick start an economy or not being concerned?
> 
> Eastern Europeans are simply tough people, seen it all.
> 
> Economy kick start, some one has to produce weapons and sell them. (look who got rich after ww2, you know also those bombs for peace.)
> 
> World will go on. _shrug_ Then again I am bit cynical.


When markets open Monday, the Russian economy is gonna shit itself like a college kid who hit Taco Bell after putting back a whole bottle of Bacardi. Replacing burnt out BTRs and lost AKs is not going to restore the colossal economic damage Putin has subjected Russia to.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Why not now rather than 2-3 weeks?
> 
> I guess if we wait they probably won’t have fuel anyway.


99 percent chance thats never going to happen.


----------



## TacticalTea

Altair said:


> 99 percent chance thats never going to happen.


You learn well, my son.


----------



## HiTechComms

brihard said:


> When markets open Monday, the Russian economy is gonna shit itself like a college kid who hit Taco Bell after putting back a whole bottle of Bacardi. Replacing burnt out BTRs and lost AKs is not going to restore the colossal economic damage Putin has subjected Russia to.


Russians are use to it. Here is the kicker they are still better of then the Ukrainians as far as wages are concerned.

Russians will survive, remember these crazy mothers ran into battle with half the soldiers with no guns during ww2. Don't underestimate the people they are tough as nails. Also they will find a way to exist just fine, see North Korea as an example. 

I doubt most North Americans would survive for long in those conditions.


----------



## RangerRay

Earlier in the thread, someone mentioned one of the boxers who ran for office in Ukraine a while back. The Klitschko brothers are in the fight. 









						Klitschko brothers, former heavyweight boxing champions, to take up arms for Ukraine
					

Vitali Klitschko, now mayor of Kyiv, says he will join his brother Wladimir in a ‘bloody war’ against Russian invaders




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> Russians are use to it. Here is the kicker they are still better of then the Ukrainians as far as wages are concerned.
> 
> Russians will survive, remember these crazy mothers ran into battle with half the soldiers with no guns during ww2. Don't underestimate the people they are tough as nails. Also they will find a way to exist just fine, see North Korea as an example.
> 
> I doubt most North Americans would survive for long in those conditions.


You watch too many movies and clearly get your history from that. 









						Was it really two men per gun? Soviet armament in WW2
					

Bombs explode in the distance. The soldiers hear the thump of artillery shells and duck away from a strafing fighter. They are urged forward by a




					www.warhistoryonline.com
				




Myths make for great stories but they aren’t really true.


----------



## Czech_pivo

HiTechComms said:


> Russians are use to it. Here is the kicker they are still better of then the Ukrainians as far as wages are concerned.
> 
> Russians will survive, remember these crazy mothers ran into battle with half the soldiers with no guns during ww2. Don't underestimate the people they are tough as nails. Also they will find a way to exist just fine, see North Korea as an example.
> 
> I doubt most North Americans would survive for long in those conditions.


Those crazy mothers ran into battle with half the soldiers with no guns - that was simply because the NKVD was pointing machine guns at then once they left their starting points and the moment they wavered or turned back to retreat, they opened up on them and shot them just as enthusiastically as the Germans did.


----------



## HiTechComms

Remius said:


> You watch too many movies and clearly get your history from that.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Was it really two men per gun? Soviet armament in WW2
> 
> 
> Bombs explode in the distance. The soldiers hear the thump of artillery shells and duck away from a strafing fighter. They are urged forward by a
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.warhistoryonline.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Myths make for great stories but they aren’t really true.


They did lose the most people in WW2. They are willing to do what's necessary. This conflict will change nothing.


----------



## Messerschmitt

Oh look, private plane from Nice, Cote d'Azur to Moscow. San Marino registered plane.


----------



## Jarnhamar

HiTechComms said:


> They did lose the most people in WW2. They are willing to do what's necessary. This conflict will change nothing.


Were there mass protests against fighting the Germans in WW2?


----------



## HiTechComms

Jarnhamar said:


> Were there mass protests against fighting the Germans in WW2?


Google is your friend








						A Timeline of U.S. Anti-War Movements
					

Anti-war movements date back to the birth of the United States.




					www.history.com


----------



## HiTechComms

Russian vodka pulled from shelves in US, Canada bars, liquor stores: ‘Every small thing makes a difference’​








						Russian vodka pulled from shelves in US, Canada bars, liquor stores: ‘Every small thing makes a difference’
					

Liquor stores across the U.S. and Canada have started throwing out their stocks of Russian vodka in protest of President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, according to reports.




					www.foxnews.com
				





We all know Polish Vodka is best


----------



## MilEME09

Western intelligence seems to suggest logistical problems for Russian forces, it makes it sound like their LogO's may of underestimated their combat estimates for supply needs for a 4 axis assault. Such an issue so early on can only play to Ukraine advantage as they increase their stock piles thanks to the west.


----------



## brihard

HiTechComms said:


> They did lose the most people in WW2. They are willing to do what's necessary. This conflict will change nothing.


Russians were then fighting to defend and avenge their homeland. Now their conscripts are fighting a war of naked aggression- all the moral high grounds of a drug gang’s home invasion. It’s the Ukrainian population now defending hearth and home, and they know a thing or two about doing that.

The path to a Russian loss is unclear, but a loss it will be, both tactically and strategically. This will usher Ukraine more quickly into closer ties with Western Europe, and could push up to three new countries into NATO. Russia will have to choose whether to hand Putin over to justice, or to remain a pariah state. Relegation to a second tier power and China’s economic bitch will likely not be appealing to the oligarchy.


----------



## MilEME09

Russia has been trying to cut Ukrainian internet so Elon Musk has now given them starlink.


----------



## Messerschmitt

MilEME09 said:


> Russia has been trying to cut Ukrainian internet so Elon Musk has now given them starlink.View attachment 69039


Don't they need the equipment to connect to starlink? Did they already had it? I doubt it since starlink wasn't available there. Are they going to parachute the equipment?



HiTechComms said:


> Russian vodka pulled from shelves in US, Canada bars, liquor stores: ‘Every small thing makes a difference’​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian vodka pulled from shelves in US, Canada bars, liquor stores: ‘Every small thing makes a difference’
> 
> 
> Liquor stores across the U.S. and Canada have started throwing out their stocks of Russian vodka in protest of President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, according to reports.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.foxnews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> We all know Polish Vodka is best


Isn't the vodka already paid for though? Makes sense to stop all imports, but the vodka which is already in NA makes no difference other than being symbolic.


----------



## MilEME09

Messerschmitt said:


> Don't they need the equipment to connect to starlink? Did they already had it? I doubt it since starlink wasn't available there. Are they going to parachute the equipment?
> 
> 
> Isn't the vodka already paid for though? Makes sense to stop all imports, but the vodka which is already in NA makes no difference other than being symbolic.


Plenty of land routes in still


----------



## PPCLI Guy

PPCLI Guy said:


> Ok.  I'd still like to know how you came to your assessment of the CAF ability to ruck...is it because you see it in your unit?  Are your troops unfit?


HTC

You don't get to skate.

You need to answer this.  If you are an officer, then you have troops....who you work for.  They are listening.

What is the state of fitness in your unit.


----------



## Jarnhamar

HiTechComms said:


> Google is your friend
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A Timeline of U.S. Anti-War Movements
> 
> 
> Anti-war movements date back to the birth of the United States.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.history.com


Were thousands of Russian civilians protesting against their government during WW2 for fighting against the Germans like they're protesting the invasion of Ukraine now?


----------



## MilEME09

MilEME09 said:


> Western intelligence seems to suggest logistical problems for Russian forces, it makes it sound like their LogO's may of underestimated their combat estimates for supply needs for a 4 axis assault. Such an issue so early on can only play to Ukraine advantage as they increase their stock piles thanks to the west.


More to this from the institute of war studies




__





						Institute for the Study of War
					

Russian forces’ main axes of advance in the last 24 hours focused on Kyiv, northeastern Ukraine, and southern Ukraine. Russian airborne and special forces troops are engaged in urban warfare in northwestern Kyiv, but Russian mechanized forces are not yet




					www.understandingwar.org
				





> *Russian forces in northeast Ukraine face growing morale and supply issues, likely due to poor planning and ad hoc command structures, as ISW previously forecasted.[5] *Several reports emerged on Ukrainian social media February 25-26 of Russian forces lost and running low on fuel in northeastern Ukraine.[6] A Russian riot police reportedly conducted an unsupported attack on eastern Kyiv and suffered heavy casualties late on February 25, likely symptomatic of wider Russian coordination issues.[7] Several US and European intelligence sources reportedly assess the Kremlin has had to adjust plans and commit more capabilities than anticipated at this point in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[8]


Russian offensive stalling due to lack of fuel


----------



## TacticalTea

Belarus Referendum could invite nuclearization, entry into war

How could and should NATO respond, if Belarus were to go ahead with both those courses of action?

To those hardliners opposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine; I am concerned that we may regret not having defended Ukraine and suppressed Belarus when the time comes to defend the Baltics and Poland.


----------



## MilEME09

TacticalTea said:


> Belarus Referendum could invite nuclearization, entry into war
> 
> How could and should NATO respond, if Belarus were to go ahead with both those courses of action?
> 
> To those hardliners opposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine; I am concerned that we may regret not having defended Ukraine and suppressed Belarus when the time comes to defend the Baltics and Poland.


NATO needs to red line Belarus directly entering the war. Putin cannot protect Belarus and fighting Ukraine at the same time, let's get our rapid reaction force in place, then tell Belarus back off or you'll find your president hanging from the light post. We may not be able to stop this war, but we need to do what we can to help Ukraine, including keeping Belarus out.


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> NATO needs to red line Belarus directly entering the war. Putin cannot protect Belarus and fighting Ukraine at the same time, let's get our rapid reaction force in place, then tell Belarus back off or you'll find your president hanging from the light post. We may not be able to stop this war, but we need to do what we can to help Ukraine, including keeping Belarus out.


If that happens, here's to hoping Biden redlines are more tangible than Obama redlines...


----------



## RangerRay

Wait…what?


> Russian forces in northeast Ukraine face growing morale and supply issues, likely due to poor planning and ad hoc command structures, as ISW previously forecasted.[5] Several reports emerged on Ukrainian social media February 25-26 of Russian forces lost and running low on fuel in northeastern Ukraine.[6] A Russian riot police reportedly conducted an unsupported attack on eastern Kyiv and suffered heavy casualties late on February 25, likely symptomatic of wider Russian coordination issues.[7] Several US and European intelligence sources reportedly assess the Kremlin has had to adjust plans and commit more capabilities than anticipated at this point in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[8]


----------



## Furniture

RangerRay said:


> Wait…what?


Could it be that they were moved up to secure Kyiv after it was captured, and got a bit too "enthusiastic"?

It would make sense to me that the Russians would move a constabulary force in to maintain the international pretense of liberation/peacekeeping.


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> More to this from the institute of war studies
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Institute for the Study of War
> 
> 
> Russian forces’ main axes of advance in the last 24 hours focused on Kyiv, northeastern Ukraine, and southern Ukraine. Russian airborne and special forces troops are engaged in urban warfare in northwestern Kyiv, but Russian mechanized forces are not yet
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.understandingwar.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian offensive stalling due to lack of fuel


It would seem that the logistical issues rest higher than tactical-level LogOs.

Putin fires General Gerasimov, Russia’s Chief of the General Staff:









						Начальник генштаба РФ отправлен в отставку за провал в Украине
					

Президент страны-агрессора Владимир Путин снял начальника Генерального штаба РФ Валерия Герасимова за провал операции по Украине.




					ua-news.translate.goog


----------



## Weinie

Good2Golf said:


> It would seem that the logistical issues rest higher than tactical-level LogOs.
> 
> Putin fires General Gerasimov, Russia’s Chief of the General Staff:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Начальник генштаба РФ отправлен в отставку за провал в Украине
> 
> 
> Президент страны-агрессора Владимир Путин снял начальника Генерального штаба РФ Валерия Герасимова за провал операции по Украине.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ua-news.translate.goog


Very interesting development. Vlad must be super pissed, as this guy has influenced Russian doctrine and playbooks for more than a decade. He has published some interesting stuff directed at the LCol (equiv) and above studying at Russian Academies.


----------



## Remius

Good2Golf said:


> It would seem that the logistical issues rest higher than tactical-level LogOs.
> 
> Putin fires General Gerasimov, Russia’s Chief of the General Staff:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Начальник генштаба РФ отправлен в отставку за провал в Украине
> 
> 
> Президент страны-агрессора Владимир Путин снял начальника Генерального штаба РФ Валерия Герасимова за провал операции по Украине.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ua-news.translate.goog


Because that happens when things are going well lol.


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497849912905674752
Latest from the UK MOD.


----------



## suffolkowner

Thread by @delfoo on Thread Reader App
					

@delfoo: 1/I am going to try to explain the irrational Russian Armed Forces behavior towards strategy, common thought, or even the chances repatriated SSO that are now POW try to murder a bunch of men with stars....…




					threadreaderapp.com
				




interested in everyones thoughts on this "analysis" of Russian performance


----------



## Remius

suffolkowner said:


> Thread by @delfoo on Thread Reader App
> 
> 
> @delfoo: 1/I am going to try to explain the irrational Russian Armed Forces behavior towards strategy, common thought, or even the chances repatriated SSO that are now POW try to murder a bunch of men with stars....…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> threadreaderapp.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> interested in everyones thoughts on this "analysis" of Russian performance


Looks like an assessment of the state of Russia’s military and the culture issues in it.  Very interesting read.


----------



## Dana381

suffolkowner said:


> Thread by @delfoo on Thread Reader App
> 
> 
> @delfoo: 1/I am going to try to explain the irrational Russian Armed Forces behavior towards strategy, common thought, or even the chances repatriated SSO that are now POW try to murder a bunch of men with stars....…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> threadreaderapp.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> interested in everyones thoughts on this "analysis" of Russian performance



In a totally unrelated podcast the other day two intellectuals were discussing that people can't lie without believing the lie at least in part. When people tell a lie they know to be false their belief actually changes toward the lie.

Also in a culture that is ruled by fear more than respect people lie often. I seen this played out while watching Hells Kitchen. People that normally don't lie start to lie during the dinner service when the fear starts to kick in.

It sounds like both of these phenomenon are at play here. Russian officials began believing the lies they were releasing to the media and their fear of their superiors and Putin had them lying up the command chain. Everyone begins to believe these lies and plans the invasion based on these beliefs. 

Anyone in the ranks that would dare to suggest the Ukrainians may be capable fighters or that supplies should be brought up for a longer war would be considered crazy or not having faith in the Russian forces and he would risk jail or execution for such dissension. Attitudes like that rise from needing to support the lies one is telling. Eg. If I say it will be easy to take Ukraine but agree to extra supplies I risk being outed as a liar. So I must shut you down quickly to save my own neck.

This shows why ruling with fear vs ruling with respect is so bad.


----------



## RangerRay

suffolkowner said:


> Thread by @delfoo on Thread Reader App
> 
> 
> @delfoo: 1/I am going to try to explain the irrational Russian Armed Forces behavior towards strategy, common thought, or even the chances repatriated SSO that are now POW try to murder a bunch of men with stars....…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> threadreaderapp.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> interested in everyones thoughts on this "analysis" of Russian performance


If true, wow!


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497926425516646405
Seing multiple chatter on this.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Altair said:


> I will say this. 0 Chance of F-22s and F35s being sent.
> 
> Surplus f15s, f16s, f18s? Yeah, maybe they get sent.



Why no F-22s?  It’s not like it’s the first time they’ve operated IVO Russian air and ground forces.  









						F-22 stealth jets got 587 aircraft to back off in their ‘combat surge’ over Syria
					

U.S. Air Force F-22s recently completed their first “combat surge” in operations over Syria, and in doing so deterred almost 600 Syria, Iranian and Russian combat aircraft in the crowded skies there, the Pentagon said.




					www.airforcetimes.com


----------



## suffolkowner

Theres lots of Ukrainian propaganda out there so its hard to know whats what. But I'm reading stories of Russian soldiers not just running out of fuel but dumping fuel on purpose and just hanging out with the locals.

Ukrainian TB2 seem to be still active and available and purposefully targeting fuel and ammo supplies worsening situation for Russians

Interested in the idea that the Russians are not able to get any coordinated actions together from air support/long range artillery and the BTG's. I would have thought this was an advantage the Russians had over the Ukrainians.

The BTG is flawed organizationally as a stand alone operational unit???

This looks like it could go real bad for Putin. Almost like a mutiny or the beginnings of an uprising


----------



## RangerRay

A while ago I posted an article about how there were no Chamberlains but no Churchills either. I think we found our Churchill. 









						Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky: The comedian president who is rising to the moment — BBC News
					

Ukraine's president had no experience of politics when when elected in 2019, but has emerged as a convincing war leader.




					apple.news


----------



## Dana381

RangerRay said:


> A while ago I posted an article about how there were no Chamberlains but no Churchills either. I think we found our Churchill.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky: The comedian president who is rising to the moment — BBC News
> 
> 
> Ukraine's president had no experience of politics when when elected in 2019, but has emerged as a convincing war leader.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> apple.news





> Be not afraid of greatness. Some are born great, some achieve greatness, and others have greatness thrust upon them.


William Shakespeare, Twelfth Night


----------



## KevinB

Remius said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497926425516646405
> Seing multiple chatter on this.


That’s only going to make it worse.  
    I don’t give Vlad much more than a week above ground.


----------



## Czech_pivo

suffolkowner said:


> Theres lots of Ukrainian propaganda out there so its hard to know whats what. But I'm reading stories of Russian soldiers not just running out of fuel but dumping fuel on purpose and just hanging out with the locals.
> 
> Ukrainian TB2 seem to be still active and available and purposefully targeting fuel and ammo supplies worsening situation for Russians
> 
> Interested in the idea that the Russians are not able to get any coordinated actions together from air support/long range artillery and the BTG's. I would have thought this was an advantage the Russians had over the Ukrainians.
> 
> The BTG is flawed organizationally as a stand alone operational unit???
> 
> This looks like it could go real bad for Putin. Almost like a mutiny or the beginnings of an uprising


Every day that this drags on contributes to a weaken Putin. When, or if his hold truly becomes untenable and he realizes it, the greater the chance of this escalating right out of control.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> That’s only going to make it worse.
> I don’t give Vlad much more than a week above ground.


Let’s just hope that millions of innocent people around Europe/world don’t join.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Next step:  the Ukrainian Foreign Legion - this*** from the UKR Pres' info-machine (highlights mine -- also attached if link doesn't work for you)


> Early in the morning of February 24, 2022, Russia launched a new military operation against Ukraine, an unjustified criminal and cynical intrusion. The Russian army is using very vile tactics with all elements of war crimes under Geneva 1949 Convention, killing civilians and destroying their homes with missiles and artillery.
> 
> Ukrainians have manifested the courage to defend their homeland and save Europe and its values from a Russian onslaught. This is not just Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This is the beginning of a war against Europe, against European structures, against democracy, against basic human rights, against a global order of law, rules and peaceful coexistence.
> 
> *The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy is addressing all citizens of the world, friends of Ukraine, peace and democracy*. Anyone who wants to join the defense of Ukraine, Europe and the world can come and fight side by side with the Ukrainians against the Russian war criminals.
> 
> According to Regulation on Military Service in the Armed Forces of Ukraine by citizens of their countries and stateless persons approved by Decree of the President of Ukraine # 248 of June 10, 2016, *foreigners have the right to join the Armed Forces of Ukraine for military service under Contract of a voluntary basis to be included in the Territorial Defense Forces of the Armed Forced of Ukraine. A separate subdivision is being formed of foreigners entitled the International Legion for the Territorial Defense of Ukraine. There is no greater contribution witch you can make for the sake of peace.*
> 
> For enrolment and details please contact the Defense Attaché of the Embassy of Ukraine in your country (contact information - on the website of the Embassy).
> Give Peace a chance by protecting Ukraine and stopping the criminal invaders!


** *- It seems some UKR media and gov't links aren't always working when clicked from servers outside UKR.  If you use a VPN, try a Ukrainian hub - for now, anyway ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, all sorts of "he says, she says" about alleged talks in Gomel, Belarus ....

"Russia initiated negotiations with Ukraine on the border - media" (UKR media, in Russian)
"The Russian delegation did not wait for the Ukrainian one in Gomel" (UKR media, in Russian)
"Ukraine rejects Russia's proposal to start talks in Belarus" (RUS Communist Party media)
"Ukraine rejects Belarus as Russia talks host, lists alternatives" (Al Jazeera)
" Ukraine - Gomel never approved as negotiation site, talks must only be held in neutral cities - Zelensky's advisor" (UKR media via MENAFN.COM)
"Ukrainian and Russian officials will meet for talks at a venue on the Belarusian border with Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky's office said on Sunday ..." (Reuters via Jerusalem Post)
"Russia: "The waiting period for talks with Kiev in Gomel has expired" " (TUR media, in French)
OP edit @ 0958E/1458Z/1658 UKR time - just posted to the UKR Pres site (txt also attached):


> 27 February 2022  - 16:28
> 
> Alexander Lukashenko called President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
> 
> The politicians have agreed that the Ukrainian delegation will meet with the Russian delegation without preconditions on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, near the Pripyat River.
> 
> Alexander Lukashenko has taken responsibility for ensuring that all planes, helicopters and missiles located on Belarusian territory remain on the ground during the Ukrainian delegation's passage, negotiations and return.


🍿


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497860218554023938
If true Russian logistics are almost dime existant


----------



## Remius

The Bread Guy said:


> Meanwhile, all sorts of "he says, she says" about alleged talks in Gomel, Belarus ....
> 
> "Russia initiated negotiations with Ukraine on the border - media" (UKR media, in Russian)
> "The Russian delegation did not wait for the Ukrainian one in Gomel" (UKR media, in Russian)
> "Ukraine rejects Russia's proposal to start talks in Belarus" (RUS Communist Party media)
> "Ukraine rejects Belarus as Russia talks host, lists alternatives" (Al Jazeera)
> " Ukraine - Gomel never approved as negotiation site, talks must only be held in neutral cities - Zelensky's advisor" (UKR media via MENAFN.COM)
> "Ukrainian and Russian officials will meet for talks at a venue on the Belarusian border with Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky's office said on Sunday ..." (Reuters via Jerusalem Post)
> "Russia: "The waiting period for talks with Kiev in Gomel has expired" " (TUR media, in French)


This is easy. 

DON'T BELIEVE RUSSIA


----------



## TacticalTea

Remius said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497849912905674752
> Latest from the UK MOD.


Any possibility those hasty RUS forces could get wiped from the back as the UKR frontline forces turn around and come relieve the pressure on Kyiv?


Also, Russians running out of fuel is cool, but that opportunity must be exploited if it is to mean anything. Ukrainians need to decommission those vehicles for good and neutralize the dismounted crews, and hopefully, regain the initiative, otherwise they're just delaying their demise.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497903640777998341


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497903640777998341


The Southern front is my most concern. They take Zaporizhzhia and it’s game over for the troops to the southeast. They will have to defend both east and west flanks.


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> Meanwhile, all sorts of "he says, she says" about alleged talks in Gomel, Belarus ....
> 
> "Russia initiated negotiations with Ukraine on the border - media" (UKR media, in Russian)
> "The Russian delegation did not wait for the Ukrainian one in Gomel" (UKR media, in Russian)
> "Ukraine rejects Russia's proposal to start talks in Belarus" (RUS Communist Party media)
> "Ukraine rejects Belarus as Russia talks host, lists alternatives" (Al Jazeera)
> " Ukraine - Gomel never approved as negotiation site, talks must only be held in neutral cities - Zelensky's advisor" (UKR media via MENAFN.COM)
> "Ukrainian and Russian officials will meet for talks at a venue on the Belarusian border with Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky's office said on Sunday ..." (Reuters via Jerusalem Post)
> "Russia: "The waiting period for talks with Kiev in Gomel has expired" " (TUR media, in French)
> OP edit @ 0958E/1458Z/1658 UKR time - just posted to the UKR Pres site (txt also attached):
> 
> 🍿


I think Russia has lost his edge in negotiations, Russian forces have been pushed out of Kharkiv, they aren't making any progress in Kiev, and they have taken an estimated 1000+ casualties over night. 

Russian forces appear to be in disarray, undersupplied, and lacking coordination. This is starting to look like the greatest military blunder of the 21st century.


----------



## TacticalTea

Czech_pivo said:


> The Southern front is my most concern. They take Zaporizhzhia and it’s game over for the troops to the southeast. They will have to defend both east and west flanks.


My concern as well, and the reason for my lack of excitement at RUS log issues. They're still advancing.

In other news, however, 



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497881750344806406 Germany to ''re-militarize'' (NATO 2%) and build two LNG terminals (And I take this opportunity to express my anger, once again, at Trudeau and Quebec's failure to get one of those built right here in Quebec.)


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497895706568237056
while no doubt inflated - that does take a chunk out of the Russian Bear and add to its arthritis


----------



## Remius

TacticalTea said:


> My concern as well, and the reason for my lack of excitement at RUS log issues. They're still advancing.
> 
> In other news, however,
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497881750344806406 Germany to ''re-militarize'' (NATO 2%) and build two LNG terminals (And I take this opportunity to express my anger, once again, at Trudeau and Quebec's failure to get one of those built right here in Quebec.)


So Putin was able to do what Trump couldn’t.  Get some NATO countries to starting paying their part.


----------



## Maxman1

HiTechComms said:


> Russians will survive, remember these crazy mothers ran into battle with half the soldiers with no guns during ww2





Czech_pivo said:


> Those crazy mothers ran into battle with half the soldiers with no guns - that was simply because the NKVD was pointing machine guns at then once they left their starting points and the moment they wavered or turned back to retreat, they opened up on them and shot them just as enthusiastically as the Germans did.



No they didn't. And the NKVD _Zagradotryad _blocking detachments did not put machine guns behind regular troops (penal battalions were a different story). That was made up for _Enemy at the Gates_.

Red Army soldiers could be sent in with a little one cartridge, but they were not sent in unarmed (that was known to occur in Imperial Russian forces in WWI). The _Zagradotryad _troops would only follow regular troops and beat the shit out of anyone who attempted to desert, then sent them back into combat (worse actions usually resulted in an arrest and court martial, and being sentenced to a penal battalion). Also, WWI-style mass charges were rare in WWII and never used in Stalingrad due to the layout of the city. Executions for cowardice and desertion were allowed under Directive 227, but were rare and almost always done by court martial, not summary executions; the Soviets were more than well aware of how destructive that was to morale. Directive 227 also didn't apply to charges, and the blocking detachments were disbanded in October 1942.



Messerschmitt said:


> Isn't the vodka already paid for though? Makes sense to stop all imports, but the vodka which is already in NA makes no difference other than being symbolic.



LCBO's contracts with distributors allow them to return product for any reason, and they usually pay 30-90 days _after _taking delivery. So it's the distributors' problems, not LCBO, which is the third largest alcohol buyer in the world so they have a tremendous negotiating power.

Can't speak for NSLC and BCLC or whatever.


----------



## FM07

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497895706568237056
> while no doubt inflated - that does take a chunk out of the Russian Bear and add to its arthritis


I was looking at this earlier too and I am wondering about the 2 ships/patrol boats, wonder which vessels they were and how they got taken out. I'd also be curious to know the the UKR navy is doing.


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497895706568237056
> while no doubt inflated - that does take a chunk out of the Russian Bear and add to its arthritis


If those fuel truck numbers are even remotely true, it would explain Russian issues.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Interesting development


> Ukrainian authorities on Sunday launched a website to help Russian families track down soldiers who have been killed or captured fighting in Moscow's invasion of the pro-Western country.
> 
> The site — 200rf.com — contains pictures of the documents and corpses of Russian soldiers Ukraine said had been killed since President Vladimir Putin launched the attack.
> 
> It also has videos of soldiers Ukraine says it has captured.
> 
> "I am talking to you in Russian because this site was created for you," Viktor Andrusiv, an adviser to the Interior Minister, said in a video posted on the site ...



The site includes scans of RUS ID booklets of the dead to help ID folks -- not EXACTLY a "lookit how many Russians we'll killed" page, but let's see what the RUS & separatist rebel info-machines make of this.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> If those fuel truck numbers are even remotely true, it would explain Russian issues.


There has been a lot of footage of logistics vehicles wiped out.  

But keep in mind the Russians where effectively on Ex for almost 6 months plus - you can’t do that without a massive logistics tail, which Russia really doesn’t have. 

So you start with the tank near empty, and things just get worse.


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> If those fuel truck numbers are even remotely true, it would explain Russian issues.


I think we've gotten capricious with regards to demanding video evidence before we accept anything as true.

Naturally, it's hard to believe numbers that very well could be inflated for propaganda, but everywhere I see comments of people denying everything until there is video evidence, as if that wasn't a luxury that has just now been introduced into our lives. (The Iphone's launch was yesterday in historical terms)


----------



## Dana381

The Bread Guy said:


> Interesting development
> 
> 
> The site includes scans of RUS ID booklets of the dead to help ID folks -- not EXACTLY a "lookit how many Russians we'll killed" page, but let's see what the RUS & separatist rebel info-machines make of this.



26 Id's of dead and 5 captives. Do they take them down after family contact? I would have expected more.


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497946283918729220


----------



## KevinB

Remius said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497946283918729220


It’s been reported before.  Hopefully this time it’s true.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Remius said:


> So Putin was able to do what Trump couldn’t.  Get some NATO countries to starting paying their part.



Canada's main effort will remain ensuring members of the CAF burn their vacation days before the end of the FY so no one accumulates leave.


----------



## RangerRay

Remius said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497946283918729220


Is this closing the barn door after the horses went in?


----------



## MilEME09

RangerRay said:


> Is this closing the barn door after the horses went in?


Trap the Russian fleet, hand Ukraine a ton of anti ship missiles, profit????


----------



## Czech_pivo

Maxman1 said:


> No they didn't. And the NKVD _Zagradotryad _blocking detachments did not put machine guns behind regular troops (penal battalions were a different story). That was made up for _Enemy at the Gates_.
> 
> Red Army soldiers could be sent in with a little one cartridge, but they were not sent in unarmed (that was known to occur in Imperial Russian forces in WWI). The _Zagradotryad _troops would only follow regular troops and beat the shit out of anyone who attempted to desert, then sent them back into combat (worse actions usually resulted in an arrest and court martial, and being sentenced to a penal battalion). Also, WWI-style mass charges were rare in WWII and never used in Stalingrad due to the layout of the city. Executions for cowardice and desertion were allowed under Directive 227, but were rare and almost always done by court martial, not summary executions; the Soviets were more than well aware of how destructive that was to morale. Directive 227 also didn't apply to charges, and the blocking detachments were disbanded in October 1942.
> 
> 
> 
> LCBO's contracts with distributors allow them to return product for any reason, and they usually pay 30-90 days _after _taking delivery. So it's the distributors' problems, not LCBO, which is the third largest alcohol buyer in the world so they have a tremendous negotiating power.
> 
> Can't speak for NSLC and BCLC or whatever.


I disagree, completely, theatres executions were rare and that they were almost always done by an independent, objective court martial where the defendant had proper military legal representation.

A report to the Commissar General of State Security (NKVD chief) Lavrentiy Beria on October 10, 1941, noted that since the beginning of the war, NKVD anti-retreat troops had detained a total of 657,364 retreating, spies, traitors, instigators and deserting personnel, of which 25,878 were arrested (of which 10,201 were sentenced to death by court martial and the rest were returned to active duty).

And that represents only the first 4 months of war.

I suggest you learn a bit more about the war atrocities committed by the NKVD over the years. I suggest reading some Solzhenitsyn to start with.


----------



## TacticalTea

Remius said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497946283918729220


Big if true, even if the effect is only diplomatic.

Is there a more direct source for this?

So far, from the wording, it seems false.

''Implementing the Montreux convention'' is what Turkey has been doing for decades and does not constitute a change in policy. Might be just poor interpretation or translation.

It would also represent a strange turnaround from just yesterday categorically saying NO to the idea of closing the straits.


----------



## suffolkowner

RangerRay said:


> Is this closing the barn door after the horses went in?


not quite









						Russian Navy Masses 16 Warships Near Syria - USNI News
					

Two Russian guided-missile cruisers from Russia’s North and Pacific fleets met off the coast of Syria as part of a 16-ship Russian Navy formation, according to satellite photos taken on Thursday. Slava-class cruisers RTS Marshal Ustinov (055) and RFS Varyag (011) were part of a 16-ship formation...




					news.usni.org
				




While Russian losses are quite large comparatively it looks likely that the Russians will connect Crimea and the Donbass  it may cost them double the losses they have incurred so far though

Oryx  documenting losses but lags behind a fair bit 









						Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine
					






					www.oryxspioenkop.com
				




the drive has some running threads as well









						Ukraine Claims It Has Been Resupplied With Air-To-Air Missiles
					

All the developments on and off the battlefield from the fourth day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.




					www.thedrive.com


----------



## dapaterson

Remember, smoking is bad for your health.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497931328322514947


----------



## Quirky

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497895706568237056
> while no doubt inflated - that does take a chunk out of the Russian Bear and add to its arthritis


----------



## Maxman1

Czech_pivo said:


> I disagree, completely, theatres executions were rare and that they were almost always done by an independent, objective court martial where the defendant had proper military legal representation.
> 
> A report to the Commissar General of State Security (NKVD chief) Lavrentiy Beria on October 10, 1941, noted that since the beginning of the war, NKVD anti-retreat troops had detained a total of 657,364 retreating, spies, traitors, instigators and deserting personnel, of which 25,878 were arrested (of which 10,201 were sentenced to death by court martial and the rest were returned to active duty).



That's pretty much exactly what I said.


> Executions for cowardice and desertion were allowed under Directive 227, but were rare and almost always done by court martial, not summary executions


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> the drive has some running threads as well
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine Claims It Has Been Resupplied With Air-To-Air Missiles
> 
> 
> All the developments on and off the battlefield from the fourth day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedrive.com


I wouldn't be surprised if Romania or Poland have repainted equipment to Ukrainian colours and gifted it.


----------



## The Bread Guy

TacticalTea said:


> Big if true, even if the effect is only diplomatic.
> 
> Is there a more direct source for this? ...


The wire service the Twitter poster works for has this version as of 0520E


> Turkey called Russia's invasion of Ukraine a "war" on Sunday in a rhetorical shift *that could pave the way* for the NATO member nation to enact an international pact limiting Russian naval passage to the Black Sea ...


Turkish media in English is a bit vague


> Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said Ankara was implementing an international pact on naval passage to the Black Sea.
> 
> "Turkey will implement all provisions of Montreux Convention in a transparent manner," the minister told a live interview with broadcaster CNN Türk.
> 
> Under the 1936 Montreux Convention, NATO member Turkey has control over the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits, linking the Mediterranean and Black seas. The pact gives Ankara the power to regulate the transit of naval warships and to close the straits to foreign warships during wartime and when it is threatened.
> 
> Turkey earlier called Russia's invasion of Ukraine a "war" on Sunday in a rhetorical shift that opened the way for the move ...


Even muddier here ...


> “Under these conditions, we will apply the Montreux agreement. Article 19 is pretty clear. In the beginning, it was a Russian attack and we evaluated it with experts, soldiers, and lawyers. Now it has turned into a war. This is not a military operation; it is officially a state of war,” he told private broadcaster CNN Türk on Feb. 27.
> 
> In this case, of course, Turkey will “apply the Montreux agreement this way,” he said.
> 
> He recalled that the warships of littoral states can return their fleet to their bases through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits and Turkey cannot prevent this passage.
> 
> “Here it is clear whether the [concerned] ship is registered to the base. There should be no abuse. She should not be involved in a war after saying she will go back to the base and passing through the Bosphorus,” the minister stated ...


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> I wouldn't be surprised if Romania or Poland have repainted equipment to Ukrainian colours and gifted it.


And contract out NATO pilots into Ukrainian service?


The Bread Guy said:


> The wire service the Twitter poster works for has this version as of 0520E
> 
> Turkish media in English is a bit vague
> 
> Even muddier here ...


Yeah that's what I read as well, hence my comment regarding loss in translation / interpretation.

Also, nothing on Turkey's FM website, yet they've been posting releases daily, so it's clearly an active website.


----------



## TacticalTea

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497842763676762113
Immediately after this beautiful scene, those Ukrainians were attacked and responded with sustained rocket fire.


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> I wouldn't be surprised if Romania or Poland have repainted equipment to Ukrainian colours and gifted it.



If only NATO had a couple of armoured division's worth of Russia's equivalent of Putin's 'Little Green Men'.


----------



## daftandbarmy

TacticalTea said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497842763676762113
> Immediately after this beautiful scene, those Ukrainians were attacked and responded with sustained rocket fire.



I had to look up 'Tigr' and found this In the WSJ:

5 hours ago
Russian Armored Vehicles Meet Tough Resistance in Kharkiv​By Yaroslav Trofimov

In Kharkiv, Ukraine's second city and where a Russian tank assault was stopped by Ukrainian forces on Thursday and Friday, Russian reconnaissance troops in Tigr-M armored vehicles managed to penetrate northern neighborhoods before dawn, Ukrainian officials said.
Kharkiv Gov. Oleh Synehubov warned that urban combat is under way and urged residents to stay in shelters. “Ukrainian armed forces are liquidating the enemy,” he said.

Footage shared by Ukrainian forces on Sunday morning showed five Tigr-Ms with Russian “Z” markings destroyed on a Kharkiv street, with Ukrainian soldiers helping themselves to Russian ammunition and equipment, including several antitank rockets.

A Tigr-M was also seen burning at another Kharkiv intersection. It wasn’t immediately clear how much of the city was under Russian control after the Ukrainian counterattack.









						Russian Armored Vehicles Meet Tough Resistance in Kharkiv
					

In Kharkiv, Ukraine's second city and where a Russian tank assault was stopped by Ukrainian forces on Thursday and Friday, Russian reconnaissance troops in Tigr-M armored vehicles managed to penetrate northern neighborhoods before dawn, Ukrainian officials said. Kharkiv Gov. Oleh Synehubov warned t




					www.wsj.com


----------



## MilEME09

daftandbarmy said:


> If only NATO had a couple of armoured division's worth of Russia's equivalent of Putin's 'Little Green Men'.


Send then into Belarus, take out putins last European ally.


----------



## kev994

*the acquisition of Canada Ukraine…will be a mere matter of marching. 
Jefferson Putin
Oops. *


----------



## suffolkowner

Kansalaisaloitepalvelu - Suomen Nato-jäsenyydestä kansanäänestys
					

Esitämme, että Suomen Nato-jäsenyydestä järjestetään neuvoa-antava kansanäänestys perustuslain 53 § mukaisesti. Esitämme alla lakiesityksen kansanäänestyksestä eduskunnalle. Laki neuvoa-antavasta kansanäänestyksestä Suomen liittymisestä Pohjois-Atlantin puolustusliittoon Eduskunnan päätöksen...




					www.kansalaisaloite.fi
				




petition for Finland to join NATO


----------



## daftandbarmy

From the Daily Prole 

Kharkiv governor claims Russian troops repelled from city​Oleh Synyehubov says Ukrainian soldiers are now ‘cleaning up’ the eastern city


Fighting on streets of Kharkiv after Russian tanks enter Ukrainian city – video


Ukrainian forces have repelled a Russian attempt to seize Kharkiv, the city’s governor has claimed, after fierce fighting and street battles with advancing Russian troops.

Kharkiv’s governor, Oleh Synyehubov, said Ukrainian soldiers were “cleaning up” the eastern city. He said Russian soldiers were surrendering in groups of five to 10 and throwing their equipment in the middle of the road.

“Control over Kharkiv is completely ours!” Synyehubov posted on Facebook. “A complete cleansing of the city from the enemy is happening. The Russian enemy is absolutely demoralised.”

Earlier on Sunday, the governor said Russian light military vehicles had broken “into the city”, including in central areas. They arrived in the northern suburbs at 8am, he said. He urged all civilians to stay inside, adding: “Citizens of Kharkiv, don’t leave shelter, don’t use transport.”

Videos on social media showed images of Russian troops moving through residential areas and past Soviet-era apartment blocks. Soldiers on foot used armoured vehicles as cover. Their vehicles were marked with Z, the symbol of Russia’s four-day invasion.

Other footage suggested the Ukrainian military had inflicted losses. There were images of a destroyed Russian column and a skirmish in the south-east of the city. A group of Russian soldiers took refuge in an empty school, number 88, witnesses said, close to Traktornyi Zavod subway station.

Ukrainian soldiers armed with Kalshnikovs and grenade launchers sheltered behind a wall and trees, emerging to open fire. There was fighting reported around Shevchenko Avenue. In another part of the city local fighters strolled around destroyed Russian vehicles, inspecting the damage and salvaging military equipment.

The attempted Russian operation to seize Kharkiv followed a night of heavy bombardment. At least one multistorey apartment block was hit. Residents said the attacks were “massive and indiscriminate”, with a missile landing in a children’s playground next to a see-saw.

Artem Volodymyrovich, a 31-year-old English teacher, said Russian units had advanced from the north. They passed Peremoha metro station, the final stop on the city’s green line, and headed towards the centre, he said, speaking from a basement shelter.

“Diversionary Russian groups have been getting into Kharkiv. We can hear gunshots. Our army is still in the city. Ukrainians are still in control, volunteers are working, the mayor is in charge, and we are fighting back,” he said at 11am local time.

Volodymyrovich said he was hiding in a basement with 30 others, mostly women, children and elderly people. One of the group was an electrician who had fixed the power supply, allowing people to charge their phones. It was his third night in a shelter, he said.

“The bombing has been really heavy. The metro stopped working on Thursday afternoon and is now being used as a bomb shelter. The trains have been opened. People are sleeping in them because there isn’t enough space on the platforms.”

The city would defeat occupying Russian forces, he predicted. “I think yes. We are at home. People are fighting for their own homes, their families, their loved ones. It’s invasion for them, defence for us.”

He added: “I’m not a military guy. But if it comes to it I will take a fucking machine gun before I die like this and sit inside being shot, if they storm the basement. Better to die with arms in your hands.”

Anton Herashchenko, an adviser to Ukraine’s interior minister, who posted videos of the battle on his Telegram channel, said the Russian army had overreached itself. “Kharkiv will become for Russians a Ukrainian Stalingrad,” he wrote.

It was too early to say on Sunday whether Moscow would mount a further attempt to capture Kharkiv. The brutal bombardment of a city of 1.4 million people showed Russia was deliberately shelling civilians in suburban areas, local people said.

In an address posted online, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, described the past night as brutal. He said: “Again shooting, again bombardments of residential areas, and civilian infrastructure.”

He added: “Today, there is not a single thing in the country that the occupiers do not consider an acceptable target. They fight against everyone. They fight against all living things – against kindergartens, against residential buildings and even against ambulances.”

He said Russian forces were “firing rockets and missiles at entire city districts in which there isn’t and never has been any military infrastructure.
“Vasylkiv, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv and many other towns in Ukraine are living in conditions that were last experienced on our lands during the second world war,” he said.









						Kharkiv governor claims Russian troops repelled from city
					

Oleh Synyehubov says Ukrainian soldiers are now ‘cleaning up’ the eastern city




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## HiTechComms

Trolling Russian Army. (not sure if this is legit but funny)


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497519061554630658


----------



## suffolkowner

HiTechComms said:


> Trolling Russian Army. (not sure if this is legit but funny)
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497519061554630658


jesus it looks legit. You'd have to think that the Russian Army sabotaged this invasion on purpose or something


----------



## PuckChaser

EU has just banned Russia Today from broadcasting in thier territory, as well as all Russian aircraft (including oligarch private planes).

Hitting those oligarchs is going to really apply pressure to Putin, as thier money props him up.


----------



## Quirky

HiTechComms said:


> Trolling Russian Army. (not sure if this is legit but funny)
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497519061554630658


Translation is spot on.

"Tow you back to Russia?"


----------



## MilEME09

Unconfirmed but I have read a report Ukrainian forces may have captured radios and crypto from the Russian 90th tank division near Kharkiv, if true, and the Russians don't know it, that would give the defenders the biggest advantage possible.


----------



## TacticalTea

PuckChaser said:


> EU has just banned Russia Today from broadcasting in thier territory, as well as all Russian aircraft (including oligarch private planes).
> 
> Hitting those oligarchs is going to really apply pressure to Putin, as thier money props him up.


Nice!

Also, in Canada, as of two hours ago:

Canadian airspace closed to Russian aircraft


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497934660982038532


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> Unconfirmed but I have read a report Ukrainian forces may have captured radios and crypto from the Russian 90th tank division near Kharkiv, if true, and the Russians don't know it, that would give the defenders the biggest advantage possible.



Well, if they're members of Army.ca, they know it now don't they?


----------



## suffolkowner

The top 50 or so oligarchs that have avoided sanctions so far that are all Putins KGB buddies and have all the hidden money are the last step in the noose. It's time to step up the pressure


----------



## Quirky

TacticalTea said:


> Nice!
> 
> Also, in Canada, as of those hours ago:
> 
> Canadian airspace closed to Russian aircraft
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497934660982038532



So flights into Toronto and Vancouver, also any overhead flights into the US?



> The top 50 or so oligarchs that have avoided sanctions so far that are all Putins KGB buddies and have all the hidden money are the last step in the noose. It's time to step up the pressure



As mentioned earlier in this thread, remove their kids' visas and seize all their assets and toys in the west.


----------



## Rifleman62

Makes you think how the Cdn Army would withstand a real war with the eqpt we have.

Is Trudeau already in a bunker.? He took another "personal day" Friday.


----------



## suffolkowner

Rifleman62 said:


> Makes you think how the Cdn Army would withstand a real war with the eqpt we have.
> 
> Is Trudeau already in a bunker.? He took another "personal day" Friday.


We can only provide assistance or filling out to an American operation. Our strength such as it is remains in our Air Force and Navy


----------



## Jarnhamar

> During his inaugural address in 2019, Zelensky told lawmakers: “I do not want my picture in your offices: the President is not an icon, an idol or a portrait. Hang your kids' photos instead, and look at them each time you are making a decision.”



Really champions servant style leadership.

The Ukraine president was an actor before entering politics. Talk about "your milage may vary" eh?


----------



## TacticalTea

Rifleman62 said:


> Makes you think how the Cdn Army would withstand a real war with the eqpt we have.
> 
> Is Trudeau already in a bunker.? He took another "personal day" Friday.


It's high time we get a government that will mirror what Chancellor Scholz just announced today. Stop dallying, get those pipelines and terminals built, and reach that NATO 2% target.

You know there's something wrong with Canada when Warren heckin Buffet pulls out of energy projects because of criminal activity targeting our infrastructure.

I went to have a look at our Foreign Ministry's (''Global affairs'') twitter to see if they posted anything interesting about Ukraine... all they had was irrelevant identity politics BS. I tire of this non-sense.

How ridiculous is it that we invoked the Emergencies act for a protest, but not for actual terrorism and sabotage...


----------



## Remius

Well one thing from all of this, is that I will be looking at the 80s red dawn movie with a different perspective…


----------



## Remius

suffolkowner said:


> We can only provide assistance or filling out to an American operation. Our strength such as it is remains in our Air Force and Navy


We also can’t really be invaded by anyone other than the US.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497941632209108992
Chechen forces are apparently combat ineffective and being rotated out from the front.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497974258735194115
US officials asses the defense of the city as strong. Ukraine likely doesn't want to loose the last link in the south to prevent Donbas troops from being encircled.


----------



## Eaglelord17

Rifleman62 said:


> Makes you think how the Cdn Army would withstand a real war with the eqpt we have.
> 
> Is Trudeau already in a bunker.? He took another "personal day" Friday.


I kinda thought we were moving more to a gendarmerie type role myself


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497982746123247623

Uh…well then…


----------



## dapaterson

Pro tip: If you're an oligarch who owns a multi-million euro yacht and is a senior executive at a Russian arms manufacturer, you may want to rethink hiring a Ukranian crew.









						Detenido un marinero ucraniano por hundir parcialmente el yate de lujo de su jefe ruso en Port Adriano
					

El propietario de la embarcación es un magnate responsable de la fabricación de armas para las tropas de Putin. El propietario de la embarcación es un magnate responsable de la fabricación de armas para las tropas de Putin.




					www-ultimahora-es.translate.goog


----------



## TacticalTea

Remius said:


> We also can’t really be invaded by anyone other than the US.


We're still built for COIN.



Eaglelord17 said:


> I kinda thought we were moving more to a gendarmerie type role myself


Not moving, but we moved there and didn't come back.

We have no peer-to-peer tools in our arsenal. Of note, no mobile air defense, no air power projection (no carriers or self-sufficient strategic air lift), no CAS capability, no naval area air defense, no tools against boat swarms, no real offensive intelligence capability, etc

If we are to reach that 2% of spending, I think most of it should go to the RCAF and RCN, given how distant our enemies are.


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Remius said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497982746123247623
> 
> Uh…well then…



So I have a question.  Looking at the above post, when exactly does supplying a country in a war "legally" toss you into that war?


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497941632209108992
> Chechen forces are apparently combat ineffective and being rotated out from the front.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497974258735194115
> US officials asses the defense of the city as strong. Ukraine likely doesn't want to loose the last link in the south to prevent Donbas troops from being encircled.


That clip shows the destruction of that column totally. Another few days of this and the Ukrainians will tip over to the offensive.


----------



## kev994

Remius said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497982746123247623
> 
> Uh…well then…


That sounds like a lot of rocket launchers


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> That clip shows the destruction of that column totally. Another few days of this and the Ukrainians will tip over to the offensive.


Russia is suffering 500-1000 casualties per day, they can't sustain that more then a week at best. Then Ukraine could counter attack, which puts retaking Crimea on the table, Donbas, but I don't think Ukraine would get greedy and cross the border except to maybe hit staging bases


----------



## ueo

HiTechComms said:


> They did lose the most people in WW2. They are willing to do what's necessary. This conflict will change nothing.


Biggest losses yes, not sure just how willing the folks being bombed or prodded forward were.


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> Next step:  the Ukrainian Foreign Legion - this*** from the UKR Pres' info-machine (highlights mine -- also attached if link doesn't work for you)
> 
> ** *- It seems some UKR media and gov't links aren't always working when clicked from servers outside UKR.  If you use a VPN, try a Ukrainian hub - for now, anyway ...



Mac-Pap Battalion?









						Mackenzie–Papineau Battalion - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




Zouaves?






						Bataillon canadien des zouaves pontificaux — Wikipédia
					






					fr.wikipedia.org
				




Machal?









						Canadian Machal volunteers - World Machal
					

Two of the surviving Canadian Machal volunteers mark 73 years since they saw action in 1948.




					www.machal.org.il
				





It is illegal.  But there is form.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

TacticalTea said:


> We're still built for COIN.
> 
> 
> Not moving, but we moved there and didn't come back.
> 
> We have no peer-to-peer tools in our arsenal. Of note, no mobile air defense, no air power projection (no carriers or self-sufficient strategic air lift), no CAS capability, no naval area air defense, no tools against boat swarms, no real offensive intelligence capability, etc
> 
> If we are to reach that 2% of spending, I think most of it should go to the RCAF and RCN, given how distant our enemies are.


The Halifax Class is actually very capable when it comes to defending against attacks from FIAC.  3P + CIWS would absolutely wreck a FIAC and ESSM is also an option and a good one.

Our problem is not the tools, it would be our posture and ROE that would let us down.  

The rest of your statements are basically on point though.


----------



## Haggis

MilEME09 said:


> Unconfirmed but I have read a report Ukrainian forces may have captured radios and crypto from the Russian 90th tank division near Kharkiv, if true, and the Russians don't know it, that would give the defenders the biggest advantage possible.


Just who's side are you on, really, comrade? 😜


----------



## Kirkhill

Remius said:


> This is easy.
> 
> DON'T BELIEVE RUSSIA



Another way to read tealeaves is to look for the stuff they are denying - apparently that message is important to them.  Also look for the stuff that isn't there.  That they don't deny.  That stuff may be more important to them.


----------



## MilEME09

Haggis said:


> Just who's side are you on, really, comrade? 😜


3rd Gen Ukrainian Canadian I'll let you guess


----------



## ueo

KevinB said:


> That’s only going to make it worse.
> I don’t give Vlad much more than a week above ground.


Many posts ago I requested information on who had what nukes left. Was assured that all were accounted for. Hmmm, Rus has them probably at all levels, but just how many tac level packages were missed/lost/sold/or just  missing? Who has them? Methinks that if and its a big if, that some might become "unlost" should Vlad start down that road.


----------



## Kirkhill

Czech_pivo said:


> The Southern front is my most concern. They take Zaporizhzhia and it’s game over for the troops to the southeast. They will have to defend both east and west flanks.



It is one thing to move troops around the board.  It is another thing entirely to have sufficient strength to make an impact (pun intended).


----------



## Good2Golf

__





						Two of Russia's billionaires call for peace in Ukraine
					

Two Russian billionaires, Mikhail Fridman and Oleg Deripaska, called for an end to the conflict triggered by President Vladimir Putin's assault on Ukraine, with Fridman calling it a tragedy for both countries' people.




					beta.ctvnews.ca
				





???


----------



## SeaKingTacco

Good2Golf said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Two of Russia's billionaires call for peace in Ukraine
> 
> 
> Two Russian billionaires, Mikhail Fridman and Oleg Deripaska, called for an end to the conflict triggered by President Vladimir Putin's assault on Ukraine, with Fridman calling it a tragedy for both countries' people.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> beta.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ???
> View attachment 69049


Here we go. Endgame.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497941632209108992
> Chechen forces are apparently combat ineffective and being rotated out from the front.


Thats a lot of death and destruction for one UAV!  

*Baykar Bayraktar TB2*


----------



## Good2Golf

Retired AF Guy said:


> Thats a lot of death and destruction for one UAV!
> 
> *Baykar Bayraktar TB2*


Ask the Armenians about the TB2…


----------



## ueo

Maxman1 said:


> That's pretty much exactly what I said.


Who was the power that decided guilt or innocence? I suspect that all "court" members were Uncle Joe's boycheks.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Good2Golf said:


> Ask the Armenians about the TB2…


Yes, and it uses the WESCAM MX-15D EO/IR/LD imaging and targeting sensor for engaging targets.


----------



## Remius

SeaKingTacco said:


> Here we go. Endgame.


I expect that that may have been a veiled message to Putin…


----------



## daftandbarmy

SeaKingTacco said:


> Here we go. Endgame.



"Dictators ride to and fro on tigers from which they dare not dismount. And the tigers are getting hungry."

- Winston Churchill


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Good2Golf said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Two of Russia's billionaires call for peace in Ukraine
> 
> 
> Two Russian billionaires, Mikhail Fridman and Oleg Deripaska, called for an end to the conflict triggered by President Vladimir Putin's assault on Ukraine, with Fridman calling it a tragedy for both countries' people.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> beta.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ???



Well if they both don't commit suicide by the end of tomorrow we probably know who will.


----------



## Kirkhill

suffolkowner said:


> not quite
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian Navy Masses 16 Warships Near Syria - USNI News
> 
> 
> Two Russian guided-missile cruisers from Russia’s North and Pacific fleets met off the coast of Syria as part of a 16-ship Russian Navy formation, according to satellite photos taken on Thursday. Slava-class cruisers RTS Marshal Ustinov (055) and RFS Varyag (011) were part of a 16-ship formation...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.usni.org












						A Short History Of The Dardanelles Campaign
					

The Dardanelles, a narrow 60-mile-long strip of water that divides Europe from Asia, has been of great strategic significance for centuries. Carefully secured by international treaty, it was the closing of the Dardanelles that eventually brought the Ottoman Empire into the war as a German ally...




					www.iwm.org.uk


----------



## FM07

Chechen leader Kadyrov calls for expanding Russia’s invasion ‘in all directions’
					

The pro-Kremlin leader of Russia's Chechnya region, Ramzan Kadyrov, called on Sunday for the Russian military to expand its military offensive in Ukraine




					english.alarabiya.net
				




Meanwhile in  sunny Chechnya, Kadyrov is calling for the all the out destruction of UKR, basically saying it would all be over and done by now if he was running the show. Let's hope he meets the same fate as his general who got iced along with his thugs yesterday in Kyiv.


----------



## MilEME09

Ukraine captures Russian tank battalion commander
					

The Ukrainian military claimed on Saturday to have captured the commanders and chief of staff of Russia’s tank battalion, 35th Motor Rifle Brigade, and




					americanmilitarynews.com
				




Ukraine says they have captured the leadership of the 35th motor Rifle brigade. Talk about taking out enemy C2.


----------



## TacticalTea

Humphrey Bogart said:


> The Halifax Class is actually very capable when it comes to defending against attacks from FIAC.  3P + CIWS would absolutely wreck a FIAC and ESSM is also an option and a good one.
> 
> Our problem is not the tools, it would be our posture and ROE that would let us down.
> 
> The rest of your statements are basically on point though.


Well, exactly. Our ROEs and posture would never let us initiate the fight until those tools were rendered ineffective. That is, the point at which the swarm has surrounded you and starts making demands.


----------



## Kirkhill

Some interesting tidbits from Interfax Ukraine 




__





						Interfax-Ukraine - news from Ukraine and the world
					

News about recent political developments in Ukraine, key Ukrainian economic news and major current events in the CIS and the rest of the world.




					en.interfax.com.ua
				




Ukrainian Info - take it for what it is worth.

18:43 27.02.2022
Foreigners wishing to join intl legion to be assisted as much as possible to enter Ukraine – Foreign Minister​
18:25 27.02.2022
TALK WITH LUKASHENKO WAS LONG AND SUBSTANTIVE, HE ASSURED THAT MISSILES AND TROOPS WILL NOT FLY FROM TERRITORY OF BELARUS – ZELENSKY​
18:21 27.02.2022
Damage to environment from fire at KLO oil depot in Vasylkiv estimated at nearly UAH 810 bln, Ukraine preparing lawsuit with UN – minister​
18:18 27.02.2022
Nearly 100,000 citizens mobilized in Ukrainian army in two days – Commander-in-Chief​
17:59 27.02.2022
Russian troops go into tactical retreat near Kyiv, Kharkiv – Arestovych​
I find myself wondering if the fire at the KLO fuel refinery in the Kherson area was a Russian missile or a Ukrainian match.  After all the Ukrainian government had just instructed it citizens to initiate the ancient scorched earth policy, especially with respect to fuel, and Russian logistics, and burn it all down.

Concurrently there have been reports of the Russians abandoning their westward drive from Kherson to Odessa with the Ukrainians regaining control of Kherson and the Antonivsky Bridge over the Dniepr while the Russians end up stranding a force between Odessa and Kherson.  They are apparently focusing those Crimean troops on a drive north while continuing their efforts to break in to Mariupol.

And, I believe, that the landing of Naval Infantry between the Crimea and Mariupol was not an opposed landing so much as an administrative move, perhaps, in part, brought about by a blown bridge and the sacrifice of a single soldier.


----------



## Kirkhill

TacticalTea said:


> And contract out NATO pilots into Ukrainian service?



Sudden surge in Mig Drivers taking a Leave of Absence?

I understand Ukraine is offering vacation plans.


----------



## Good2Golf

Retired AF Guy said:


> Yes, and it uses the WESCAM MX-15D EO/IR/LD imaging and targeting sensor for engaging targets.


Depending on production, maybe, maybe not.  After Fall 2020, Bayaktar moved to the indigenous Aselsan CATS EO-IR system when Canada cut Turkey off from advanced technology. 

I wonder if Canada is going to pursue End-User Agreements from restricting TB2 operators with MX-15 systems (UKR?) against lethal use? 🤔


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> 17:59 27.02.2022
> Russian troops go into tactical retreat near Kyiv, Kharkiv – Arestovych​


If true,it means the seige of Kyiv may be nearing it's end, which would be huge for Ukraine.


----------



## Good2Golf

> TALK WITH LUKASHENKO WAS LONG AND SUBSTANTIVE, HE ASSURED THAT MISSILES AND TROOPS WILL NOT FLY FROM TERRITORY OF BELARUS – ZELENSKY​



Mmmmmmmm…..yeah, sure….whatever… #semantics









						Russia Ukraine conflict: Belarus leader says his army not taking part in Ukraine invasion
					

Belarus’s leader Alexander Lukashenko said Thursday that his military is not taking part in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as Kyiv said Moscow’s troops



					english.alarabiya.net


----------



## TacticalTea

Kirkhill said:


> Ukrainians regaining control of Kherson and the Antonivsky Bridge over the Dniepr


This is huge if true.

Showing UKR gains on a map would do wonders for morale. Not to mention, preserving the integrity of the Dniepr line - if I may call it so - is a great tactical and strategic advantage.


----------



## Good2Golf

TacticalTea said:


> This is huge if true.
> 
> Showing UKR gains on a map would do wonders for morale. Not to mention, preserving the integrity of the Dniepr line - if I may call it so - is a great tactical and strategic advantage.


Is this the point where we see the RFN Amphib force try to egress the Black Sea and save itself for a later day well into the future?


----------



## Kirkhill

TacticalTea said:


> It's high time we get a government that will mirror what Chancellor Scholz just announced today. Stop dallying, get those pipelines and terminals built, and reach that NATO 2% target.
> 
> You know there's something wrong with Canada when Warren heckin Buffet pulls out of energy projects because of criminal activity targeting our infrastructure.
> 
> I went to have a look at our Foreign Ministry's (''Global affairs'') twitter to see if they posted anything interesting about Ukraine... all they had was irrelevant identity politics BS. I tire of this non-sense.
> 
> How ridiculous is it that we invoked the Emergencies act for a protest, but not for actual terrorism and sabotage...



Don't worry.  I'm sure that Justin will continue to follow Germany's lead.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498001025705385984
Ukraine doing its best to remove Russian AD to get control of the sky's in the south.


----------



## Kirkhill

Eaglelord17 said:


> I kinda thought we were moving more to a gendarmerie type role myself



I anticipate a German style course reversal imminently.


----------



## HiTechComms

MilEME09 said:


> 3rd Gen Ukrainian Canadian I'll let you guess


So you are really a Canadian with Ukrainian ethnic background?

I never understood Hyphenated Canadians that were born and raised in Canada. Most don't speak the language nor have citizenships. 
I mean this as no offense, but aren't you just a Canadian?

I am first gen, I wasn't born here, have a dual citizenship, I speak the language and I don't even use the hyphenated nomenclature.


----------



## MilEME09

Now I hope I am just crazy but, putin just put nuclear forces on alert, and they are pulling back from Kyiv and Kharkiv. Rationally I don't think they would do it, but putin is batshit crazy enough to launch this war, and threaten nukes.


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> Now I hope I am just crazy but, putin just put nuclear forces on alert, and they are pulling back from Kyiv and Kharkiv. Rationally I don't think they would do it, but putin is batshit crazy enough to launch this war, and threaten nukes.


I've read all that too. Would the Russian's actually let him do that though? I find it hard to believe. More like that would be the end for Tsar Putin


----------



## KevinB

I don't IG - but my wife sent it to me, pretty good IO work








						Clint Walker on Instagram: "Profound. #ukraine #standwithukraine"
					

Clint Walker shared a post on Instagram: "Profound. #ukraine #standwithukraine". Follow their account to see 3531 posts.




					www.instagram.com


----------



## Kat Stevens

Good2Golf said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Two of Russia's billionaires call for peace in Ukraine
> 
> 
> Two Russian billionaires, Mikhail Fridman and Oleg Deripaska, called for an end to the conflict triggered by President Vladimir Putin's assault on Ukraine, with Fridman calling it a tragedy for both countries' people.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> beta.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ???
> View attachment 69049


I'm surprised Roman Abramovich isn't all over this, can't even hire an uber to get to Stamford Bridge for the Chelski Chelsea matches.


----------



## KevinB

ueo said:


> Many posts ago I requested information on who had what nukes left. Was assured that all were accounted for. Hmmm, Rus has them probably at all levels, but just how many tac level packages were missed/lost/sold/or just  missing? Who has them? Methinks that if and its a big if, that some might become "unlost" should Vlad start down that road.


We have folks that track that stuff - and are really good at it...


----------



## rmc_wannabe

suffolkowner said:


> I've read all that too. Would the Russian's actually let him do that though? I find it hard to believe. More like that would be the end for Tsar Putin


This is where the Strategic Corporals come into play. I imagine if the conscript battalions in Belgorod are saying "Nyet", I pray that the RVSF folks have the same idea.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

MilEME09 said:


> Now I hope I am just crazy but, putin just put nuclear forces on alert, and they are pulling back from Kyiv and Kharkiv. Rationally I don't think they would do it, but putin is batshit crazy enough to launch this war, and threaten nukes.


While at the same time Russia and Ukraine have agreed to hold talks near the Pripyat River on the Ukraine-Belorussian border.


----------



## KevinB

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Foreign fighters in Kyiv <a href="https://t.co/yOmt0VtBoc">pic.twitter.com/yOmt0VtBoc</a></p>&mdash; C O U P S U R E (@COUPSURE) <a href="



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497987043921731599">February 27, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Some interesting gear...


----------



## Czech_pivo

HiTechComms said:


> So you are really a Canadian with Ukrainian ethnic background?
> 
> I never understood Hyphenated Canadians that were born and raised in Canada. Most don't speak the language nor have citizenships.
> I mean this as no offense, but aren't you just a Canadian?
> 
> I am first gen, I wasn't born here, have a dual citizenship, I speak the language and I don't even use the hyphenated nomenclature.


So if you don’t use the hyphenated nomenclature, are you a Canadian or a Pole?


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> Now I hope I am just crazy but, putin just put nuclear forces on alert, and they are pulling back from Kyiv and Kharkiv. Rationally I don't think they would do it, but putin is batshit crazy enough to launch this war, and threaten nukes.


The oligarchs could conceivably defenestrate Putin if he tries…some dominos are falling already.


Kat Stevens said:


> I'm surprised Roman Abramovich isn't all over this, can't even hire an uber to get to Stamford Bridge for the Chelski Chelsea matches.


He’s super smart, likely letting Fridman and Deripaska (junior oligarchs) take front point, and see how the winds blow…


----------



## HiTechComms

Czech_pivo said:


> So if you don’t use the hyphenated nomenclature, are you a Canadian or a Pole?


Canadian Citizen, (sometimes I will use Canadian Dual Citizenship holder).. That's is the legal definition for some one that is naturalized. I identify the word usage of "Canadian" as born in Canada.


----------



## Furniture

KevinB said:


> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Foreign fighters in Kyiv <a href="https://t.co/yOmt0VtBoc">pic.twitter.com/yOmt0VtBoc</a></p>&mdash; C O U P S U R E (@COUPSURE) <a href="
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497987043921731599">February 27, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
> 
> Some interesting gear...


I'm not an expert, but there looks to be a fair bit of high-speed, low-drag kit there, and mostly AR style rifles. 

Maybe some Polish/Western PMCs took a week or two of vacation for a hunting trip?


----------



## HiTechComms

Furniture said:


> I'm not an expert, but there looks to be a fair bit of high-speed, low-drag kit there, and mostly AR style rifles.
> 
> Maybe some Polish/Western PMCs took a week or two of vacation for a hunting trip?


Chechia has a lot of PMC training stuff. I wouldn't be surprised if most were of Slavic origin/ethnicity, dislike/hatred for Russia runs pretty deep.

I bet there is some North Americans in there too. Cray Cray people went to the middle east too.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> Unconfirmed but I have read a report Ukrainian forces may have captured radios and crypto from the Russian 90th tank division near Kharkiv, if true, and the Russians don't know it, that would give the defenders the biggest advantage possible.


Here's some docs recovered from RUS tps near Hostomel (still being fought over, I think) - hope your Russian's good  

Here's the latest from the best Putin satirist/analyst on Twitter

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498021154749128706


----------



## The Bread Guy

Now, from our "low hanging fruit" file ...








						Kharkiv Oblast: two Russian soldiers came to the police to ask for diesel fuel
					

Two Russian soldiers themselves came to the Regional Police Department in Shevchenkovo (Kupyanskiy District of Kharkiv Oblast) and asked for diesel fuel because their equipment stalled. The police immediately made […]




					mil.in.ua


----------



## rmc_wannabe

The Bread Guy said:


> Now, from our "low hanging fruit" file ...


Five worthless Rubles says these gentlemen didn't run out of diesel....


----------



## Furniture

The Bread Guy said:


> Now, from our "low hanging fruit" file ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Kharkiv Oblast: two Russian soldiers came to the police to ask for diesel fuel
> 
> 
> Two Russian soldiers themselves came to the Regional Police Department in Shevchenkovo (Kupyanskiy District of Kharkiv Oblast) and asked for diesel fuel because their equipment stalled. The police immediately made […]
> 
> 
> 
> 
> mil.in.ua


In their defence, might have been an easy way to get out of a war they didn't want to be in.


----------



## Altair

rmc_wannabe said:


> Five worthless Rubles says these gentlemen didn't run out if diesel....


I raise you 10 rubles that they actually did run out of diesel and used that as an excuse to get out of the war.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Altair said:


> I raise you 10 rubles that they actually did run out of diesel and used that as an excuse to get out of the war.


Bet! 😂


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Furniture said:


> In their defence, might have been an easy way to get out of a war they didn't want to be in.


Or they were literally fed  that "The Ukrainians want you there to protect them from their neo-nazi Govt." and thought they could just get help....


----------



## HiTechComms

This whole Ukraine thing.. 

Hypothetically speaking. If there was a conventional war and the NATO had to go against the Russians how the task of actually fighting a war there would be logistical nightmare for NATO or any force for the matter of fact.  I mean even going through Poland would be a nightmare because of the Road system but then going through something as vast Ukraine and then Russia would be almost impossible. It would be like trying fighting in Alberta and Saskatchewan and moving forces across such a land mass is a crazy notion.


----------



## Altair

Kirkhill said:


> Some interesting tidbits from Interfax Ukraine
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Interfax-Ukraine - news from Ukraine and the world
> 
> 
> News about recent political developments in Ukraine, key Ukrainian economic news and major current events in the CIS and the rest of the world.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.interfax.com.ua
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian Info - take it for what it is worth.
> 
> 18:43 27.02.2022
> Foreigners wishing to join intl legion to be assisted as much as possible to enter Ukraine – Foreign Minister​
> 18:25 27.02.2022
> TALK WITH LUKASHENKO WAS LONG AND SUBSTANTIVE, HE ASSURED THAT MISSILES AND TROOPS WILL NOT FLY FROM TERRITORY OF BELARUS – ZELENSKY​
> 18:21 27.02.2022
> Damage to environment from fire at KLO oil depot in Vasylkiv estimated at nearly UAH 810 bln, Ukraine preparing lawsuit with UN – minister​
> 18:18 27.02.2022
> Nearly 100,000 citizens mobilized in Ukrainian army in two days – Commander-in-Chief​
> 17:59 27.02.2022
> Russian troops go into tactical retreat near Kyiv, Kharkiv – Arestovych​
> I find myself wondering if the fire at the KLO fuel refinery in the Kherson area was a Russian missile or a Ukrainian match.  After all the Ukrainian government had just instructed it citizens to initiate the ancient scorched earth policy, especially with respect to fuel, and Russian logistics, and burn it all down.
> 
> Concurrently there have been reports of the Russians abandoning their westward drive from Kherson to Odessa with the Ukrainians regaining control of Kherson and the Antonivsky Bridge over the Dniepr while the Russians end up stranding a force between Odessa and Kherson.  They are apparently focusing those Crimean troops on a drive north while continuing their efforts to break in to Mariupol.
> 
> And, I believe, that the landing of Naval Infantry between the Crimea and Mariupol was not an opposed landing so much as an administrative move, perhaps, in part, brought about by a blown bridge and the sacrifice of a single soldier.


I read this but then hear this



			https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/27/kyiv-surrounded-says-mayor-fighting-on-fourth-day-of-russian-invasion-of-ukraine
		


Fog of war indeed.


----------



## The Bread Guy

An admission from RUS state media








						Russian defense ministry reports losses among Russian troops during special operation
					

Konashenkov also said that several Russian soldiers have been taken prisoner




					tass.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> I read this but then hear this
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/27/kyiv-surrounded-says-mayor-fighting-on-fourth-day-of-russian-invasion-of-ukraine
> 
> 
> 
> Fog of war indeed.



Its all information.  Some of it is right.  Some of it may be right at a given time.


----------



## HiTechComms

Kirkhill said:


> Its all information.  Some of it is right.  Some of it may be right at a given time.


I always wondered how the lack of gun depression on Russian tanks would impact their ability to be used in a defensive posture. I wonder if it makes a difference.


----------



## The Bread Guy

HiTechComms said:


> I always wondered how the lack of gun depression on Russian tanks would impact their ability to be used in a defensive posture. I wonder if it makes a difference.


Back in the day, they used to say the lack of depression was based on their generally "offence is the best defence" approach.  Don't know how much of that thinking continues on to this day.


----------



## dapaterson

Further EU support.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498029493033881601


----------



## Kirkhill

HiTechComms said:


> I always wondered how the lack of gun depression on Russian tanks would impact their ability to be used in a defensive posture. I wonder if it makes a difference.


Do you think it might encourage them to keep them out of the defense and husband them for counter-attacks?

They would then have to rely on RPGs, ATGMs and their artillery?


----------



## SeaKingTacco

dapaterson said:


> Further EU support.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498029493033881601


So, Romania, Hungary and Poland are getting a fighter force refresh, it would seem.


----------



## PPCLI Guy

PPCLI Guy said:


> HTC
> 
> You don't get to skate.
> 
> You need to answer this.  If you are an officer, then you have troops....who you work for.  They are listening.
> 
> What is the state of fitness in your unit.


So HiTechComms...I see you are back and posting, so I was wondering if you had given this any thought?


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> This whole Ukraine thing..
> 
> Hypothetically speaking. If there was a conventional war and the NATO had to go against the Russians how the task of actually fighting a war there would be logistical nightmare for NATO or any force for the matter of fact.  I mean even going through Poland would be a nightmare because of the Road system but then going through something as vast Ukraine and then Russia would be almost impossible. It would be like trying fighting in Alberta and Saskatchewan and moving forces across such a land mass is a crazy notion.


Russia already does not have the best logistics.

This article back in Novermber is actually quite prophetic.  I made note of it then and used in a few discussions with colleagues. And the author’s conclusions seem to be happening now. 









						Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look at Russian Army Logistics and the Fait Accompli - War on the Rocks
					

Editor's note: Don't miss our comprehensive guide to Russia's war against Ukraine.    Russia’s military buildup along the border with Ukraine has



					warontherocks.com
				




Add to that lack of a professional NCO corps which I see as a further weakness.


----------



## Czech_pivo

SeaKingTacco said:


> So, Romania, Hungary and Poland are getting a fighter force refresh, it would seem.


I’ve been wondering if Poland give the Ukrainians their remaining MIG 29s and SU 22s.


----------



## suffolkowner

SeaKingTacco said:


> So, Romania, Hungary and Poland are getting a fighter force refresh, it would seem.


hurry up those F-16's and F-35's


----------



## MilEME09

SeaKingTacco said:


> So, Romania, Hungary and Poland are getting a fighter force refresh, it would seem.


Funny I was just commenting on this


----------



## HiTechComms

The Bread Guy said:


> Back in the day, they used to say the lack of depression was based on their generally "offence is the best defence" approach.  Don't know how much of that thinking continues on to this day.


Aren't Russian tanks generally also lower in profile then western ones? Not to mention their tanks are also smaller in size.  Still their guns are pretty effective on paper. There will be good amount of intel after the conflict. I am not sure if the Russians are using the T90M and Armatas here, most likely not enough and to expensive to lose.


----------



## Eagle_Eye_View

Just watched our MND on CBC Live saying to expect significant investment into NORAD and the CAF. Is it too little too late? Let’s see where this takes us.


----------



## MilEME09

HiTechComms said:


> Aren't Russian tanks generally also lower in profile then western ones? Not to mention their tanks are also smaller in size.  Still their guns are pretty effective on paper. There will be good amount of intel after the conflict. I am not sure if the Russians are using the T90M and Armatas here, most likely not enough and to expensive to lose.


T90Ms have been seen with the 1st Guards, I haven't seen any OSINT spotting T14s


----------



## HiTechComms

TB said:


> Just watched our MND on CBC Live saying to expect significant investment into NORAD and the CAF. Is it too little too late? Let’s see where this takes us.


Buying insurance after you wrapped your car around a tree? CAF is a whipping boy of government budgets.


----------



## PPCLI Guy

HiTechComms said:


> Canadian Citizen, (sometimes I will use Canadian Dual Citizenship holder).. That's is the legal definition for some one that is naturalized. I identify the word usage of "Canadian" as born in Canada.


Well as an immigrant, I respectfully disagree with your characterisation.  I am a Canadian.  The Oxford English Dictionary agrees.



> adjective
> relating to or characteristic of Canada or its inhabitants.
> "a culture that is distinctly Canadian"
> noun
> a native or inhabitant of Canada.
> "a 27-year-old Canadian from Ontario


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> Buying insurance after you wrapped your car around a tree? CAF is a whipping boy of government budgets.


Sounds like Canada prior to WW1 and WW2.  And Afghanistan.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Seems running out of fuel is a National tradition. A lovely cold response from these Georgian sailors.









						Georgian Refueling Ship Tells Russian Ship Running on Empty to Paddle Home
					

The crew of a Georgian refueling ship has recently released footage of them telling a Russian transport ship that they can paddle themselves home if they're out of fuel.




					funker530.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Furniture said:


> In their defence, might have been an easy way to get out of a war they didn't want to be in.


About that ... 








						Russian POWs Say They Were Tricked, Threatened During Invasion
					

The Ukrainian Interior Ministry has set up a Telegram channel with videos that it says show captured, injured, and dead Russian soldiers. This video shows Russian soldiers being interrogated. The prisoners are being questioned by their Ukrainian captors.




					www.rferl.org


----------



## dapaterson

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497797398898176000


----------



## The Bread Guy

rmc_wannabe said:


> Seems running out of fuel is a National tradition. A lovely cold response from these Georgian sailors.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Georgian Refueling Ship Tells Russian Ship Running on Empty to Paddle Home
> 
> 
> The crew of a Georgian refueling ship has recently released footage of them telling a Russian transport ship that they can paddle themselves home if they're out of fuel.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> funker530.com


"Need a tow back to Russia, brother?"


----------



## HiTechComms

PPCLI Guy said:


> Well as an immagrant, I respectively disagree with your characterisation.  I am a Canadian.  The Oxford English Dictionary agrees.


As much as I would like to have discourse on this with you it doesn't add to the thread. 

"a culture that is distinctly Canadian" What exactly does that mean? I could pull up a Prime minister quote that would derail this line of reasoning. Its also fairly chauvinistic to assume that everyone has these values as Canada is a mosaic of different cultures.  To assume Canada is a monolithic culture is a bit farcical.


----------



## Kirkhill

HiTechComms said:


> Aren't Russian tanks generally also lower in profile then western ones? Not to mention their tanks are also smaller in size.  Still their guns are pretty effective on paper. There will be good amount of intel after the conflict. I am not sure if the Russians are using the T90M and Armatas here, most likely not enough and to expensive to lose.


I understand that the lower profile goes together with the restrictions on depression.

As the bit of the gun outside the turret  depresses  the bit inside the turret rises and eventually bumps into the ceiling.  It ca depress no more.  NATO turrets have higher ceilings.


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> As much as I would like to have discourse on this with you it doesn't add to the thread.
> 
> "a culture that is distinctly Canadian" What exactly does that mean? I could pull up a Prime minister quote that would derail this line of reasoning. Its also fairly chauvinistic to assume that everyone has these values as Canada is a mosaic of different cultures.  To assume Canada is a monolithic culture is a bit farcical.


Then why are you starting the derails?  Lol.  You asked the question FFS.


----------



## Furniture

dapaterson said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497797398898176000


Those 13 border guards from Snake Island have definitely had an impact on the war, even though it came at the cost of their lives.


----------



## HiTechComms

Kirkhill said:


> I understand that the lower profile goes together with the restrictions on depression.
> 
> As the bit of the gun outside the turret  depresses  the bit inside the turret rises and eventually bumps into the ceiling.  It ca depress no more.  NATO turrets have higher ceilings.


Wonder how much that would make a difference situations. Low profile smaller target to hit at a distance but then again with missiles would it make a huge difference.  Gone be a gold mine of intel.


----------



## suffolkowner

HiTechComms said:


> Aren't Russian tanks generally also lower in profile then western ones? Not to mention their tanks are also smaller in size.  Still their guns are pretty effective on paper. There will be good amount of intel after the conflict. I am not sure if the Russians are using the T90M and Armatas here, most likely not enough and to expensive to lose.


I've read some Armata's are on the way but there's not enough to matter

edit the 5000 AT4's from Sweden will have a bigger impact


----------



## dapaterson

TB said:


> Just watched our MND on CBC Live saying to expect significant investment into NORAD and the CAF. Is it too little too late? Let’s see where this takes us.


Upgrading the North Warning System (replaced the DEW line) would absorb a large amount of money.









						Beyond the North Warning System - War on the Rocks
					

Aug. 18 marked the 80th anniversary of the Canadian-U.S. Permanent Joint Board on Defense. This binational board of experts provides advice to the prime



					warontherocks.com


----------



## Remius

Furniture said:


> Those 13 border guards from Snake Island have definitely had an impact on the war, even though it came at the cost of their lives.


Only takes a small act of defiance in the face of overwhelming odds to have an impact.


----------



## MilEME09

Furniture said:


> Those 13 border guards from Snake Island have definitely had an impact on the war, even though it came at the cost of their lives.


There are unconfirmed reports some may have survived and are POWs in Crimea


----------



## TacticalTea

TB said:


> Just watched our MND on CBC Live saying to expect significant investment into NORAD and the CAF. Is it too little too late? Let’s see where this takes us.


We're not currently under invasion so I can only be pleased by this news.

More generally; I feel a certain satisfaction that what we had been discussing here just yesterday materialized so fast: Warsaw-Pact-turned-NATO Mig/Sukhoi operators giving their planes a paintjob and sending them over to Ukraine.


----------



## Furniture

MilEME09 said:


> There are unconfirmed reports some may have survived and are POWs in Crimea


Hopefully it's true, Ukraine will need living heroes as well as dead ones when this ends.


----------



## KevinB

HiTechComms said:


> I always wondered how the lack of gun depression on Russian tanks would impact their ability to be used in a defensive posture. I wonder if it makes a difference.


No.  You can build a run up that can account for that.  
  It can affect fire support during attacks on some ground, but insignificant to defense.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Kyiv is now surrounded, according to the mayor Klitschko.









						Kyiv mayor proud of citizens' spirit, anxious about future
					

As Russian troops draw closer to the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv’s mayor is filled with pride over his citizens’ spirit yet anxious about how long they can hold out.




					www.ctvnews.ca
				




Also, Mariupol is under heavy shelling as is Kherson which has been surrounded and cut off by the Russians.

The second echelon of Russian Forces appears to be professionals that look far more capable than the first wave of conscript cannon fodder they sent in.


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Kyiv is now surrounded, according to the mayor Klitschko.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Kyiv mayor proud of citizens' spirit, anxious about future
> 
> 
> As Russian troops draw closer to the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv’s mayor is filled with pride over his citizens’ spirit yet anxious about how long they can hold out.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Also, Mariupol is under heavy shelling as is Kherson which has been surrounded and cut off by the Russians.
> 
> The second echelon of Russian Forces appears to be professionals that look far more capable than the first wave of conscript cannon fodder they sent in.


Might be too late, we are talking about 100k plus Ukrainian reservists being equipped so far, they are starting limited counter attacks along the front. More equipment is pouring in to arm Ukrainian forces, combined with Russias supply problems, this could mean disaster for them.


----------



## HiTechComms

New Development








						Ukraine 'holds peace talks with Russia' amid scramble for second largest city | ITV News
					

Anton Geraschenko, an adviser to Ukraine's Minister of Internal Affairs, told ITV News that the two sides begun discussions late on Sunday afternoon. | ITV National News




					www.itv.com


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Massive explosion is Cherkasy:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498038593373224961


----------



## HiTechComms

Technology


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Massive explosion is Cherkasy:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498038593373224961


Fuel air bomb?


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Massive explosion is Cherkasy:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498038593373224961


That was frighteningly large.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

CTV has a live video feed of Kyiv. 23:20 Kyiv time.  Pretty quite, some rumbling in the distance, but I imagine the calm before the storm.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

KevinB said:


> That was frighteningly large.


Non-nuclear but possibly an ammo dump exploding or a MOAB thermobaric weapon being used.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Fuel air bomb?


Generally the wrong shape for one of those.
   Usually flatter/wider - based on a few I’ve seen - but I don’t think I’ve ever seen a Russian one, so they may use a lighter mix


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> That was frighteningly large.


That looks like a Thermobaric weapon to me. Possibly one of the TOS-1 batteries letting loose


----------



## HiTechComms

rmc_wannabe said:


> That looks like a Thermobaric weapon to me. Possibly one of the TOS-1 batteries letting loose


I think Thermobaric weapons (TS01, TS02)are under the Russian Nuclear, Biological and Chemical troops weapons branch which would explain why Putin told the Nuclear branch to standby.


----------



## Kirkhill

suffolkowner said:


> I've read some Armata's are on the way but there's not enough to matter
> 
> edit the 5000 AT4's from Sweden will have a bigger impact


Many of them.


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Kyiv is now surrounded, according to the mayor Klitschko.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Kyiv mayor proud of citizens' spirit, anxious about future
> 
> 
> As Russian troops draw closer to the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv’s mayor is filled with pride over his citizens’ spirit yet anxious about how long they can hold out.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Also, Mariupol is under heavy shelling as is Kherson which has been surrounded and cut off by the Russians.
> 
> The second echelon of Russian Forces appears to be professionals that look far more capable than the first wave of conscript cannon fodder they sent in.



I tend to look at reports of shelling as a good thing.  To me it means Vlad's troops are still on the outside looking in.  Again.

And a bridge that regularly changes hands in not a secure supply route in my opinion.


----------



## MilEME09

HiTechComms said:


> I think Thermobaric weapons (TS01, TS02)are under the Russian Nuclear, Biological and Chemical troops weapons branch which would explain why Putin told the Nuclear branch to standby.


There's unconfirmed reports a ballistic missile hit an ammunition depot


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> No.  You can build a run up that can account for that.
> It can affect fire support during attacks on some ground, but insignificant to defense.


 If you remember to fit dozer blades for the tanks or bring the D9.


----------



## TacticalTea

UNSC Calls 11th ever UNGA Emergency Special Session. Russia, sole ''No'' vote, will not have veto right at the UNGA ESS.

 Reuters article


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498042351582863363


----------



## HiTechComms

Kirkhill said:


> If you remember to fit dozer blades for the tanks or bring the D9.


I think a lot of the Russian tanks have self entrenchers. At least the modernized T72 and T80 do.


----------



## KevinB

HiTechComms said:


> I think a lot of the Russian tanks have self entrenchers. At least the modernized T72 and T80 do.


If they hadn’t sold it for booze money earlier…


----------



## HiTechComms

MilEME09 said:


> There's unconfirmed reports a ballistic missile hit an ammunition depot


Yeah if that is the case this is a real escalation of force by the Russians. I think the rest of the world might start worrying about this.


----------



## AmmoTech90

HiTechComms said:


> Yeah if that is the case this is a real escalation of force by the Russians. I think the rest of the world might start worrying about this.


Not really.  Tochkas and Iskandars are ballistic missiles, and Tochkas have been flying pretty much since day from both sides.


----------



## Kirkhill

Russian politicians break ranks with Kremlin to condemn Ukraine invasion
					

Officials say they are ‘devastated’ by Vladimir Putin’s move to wage war on neighbour, as protests and petitions for peace gain momentum




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Kirkhill said:


> Russian politicians break ranks with Kremlin to condemn Ukraine invasion
> 
> 
> Officials say they are ‘devastated’ by Vladimir Putin’s move to wage war on neighbour, as protests and petitions for peace gain momentum
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.telegraph.co.uk


I could see that happening, but not yet, there is no way yet Putin has lost that much control to silence, I'm going with that wonderful Ukrainian info-ops.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498051049831251980
Ruble plunges another 20% in early trading


----------



## TacticalTea

AmmoTech90 said:


> Not really.  Tochkas and Iskandars are ballistic missiles, and Tochkas have been flying pretty much since day from both sides.


Today, Iskanders launched from *Belarus* have hit an airfield in Ukraine.

-Ukrainian Ambassor at the UNSC


----------



## suffolkowner

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Kyiv is now surrounded, according to the mayor Klitschko.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Kyiv mayor proud of citizens' spirit, anxious about future
> 
> 
> As Russian troops draw closer to the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv’s mayor is filled with pride over his citizens’ spirit yet anxious about how long they can hold out.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Also, Mariupol is under heavy shelling as is Kherson which has been surrounded and cut off by the Russians.
> 
> The second echelon of Russian Forces appears to be professionals that look far more capable than the first wave of conscript cannon fodder they sent in.


what is the thinking behind this if true. It's like something from a super villain movie


----------



## HiTechComms

TacticalTea said:


> Today, Iskanders launched from *Belarus* have hit an airfield in Ukraine.
> 
> -Ukrainian Ambassor at the UNSC


Wouldn't that implicate Belarus as being in the War? What is the international law about hits?


----------



## Kirkhill

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> I could see that happening, but not yet, there is no way yet Putin has lost that much control to silence, I'm going with that wonderful Ukrainian info-ops.




Could be right.  It is always possible it could be disinformation.

Although the by line is from the UK's Telegraph's correspondent in Moscow.  



> Russian politicians break ranks with Kremlin to condemn Ukraine invasion​Officials say they are ‘devastated’ by Vladimir Putin’s move to wage war on neighbour, as protests and petitions for peace gain momentum
> 
> ByNataliya Vasilyeva, RUSSIA CORRESPONDENT, MOSCOW26 February 2022 • 7:43pm
> 
> 
> Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is proving so unpopular that several Russian MPs are withdrawing their support for the Kremlin.
> 
> The State Duma, the lower house of Russian parliament, last week voted to recognise the independence of eastern Ukraine’s separatist regions. President Vladimir Putin signed the motion into law on Monday.
> 
> Two days later, Russia’s upper house of parliament gave the green light to sending Russian troops “abroad”. However, it was not clear until Thursday morning that Putin had ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
> 
> Mikhail Matveyev, a member of the State Duma, called on the Kremlin on Saturday to stop the invasion.
> 
> “By voting to recognise the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, I voted for peace, not a war. For Russia to become a shield for the Donbas, not for bombing Kyiv,” he said.
> 
> Another MP, Communist Oleg Smolin, said on Friday he was “shocked” by the invasion and was sorry for the loss of life.
> 
> Their statements came amid a myriad of anti-war petitions from Russian teachers, scientists and doctors.
> 
> A famed Soviet photographer and author called on Putin and his entourage to retire in a video clip posted on Novaya Gazeta’s website.
> 
> “Why don’t you all have some rest? You did such a great job. You all are pension age. It’s time to retire,” said Kyiv-born 83-year-old Yuri Rost.
> 
> Even some of the most Kremlin-friendly pundits began to publicly question the rationale behind Moscow unleashing a war on a sovereign nation.
> 
> Andrey Kortunov, director of the Russian International Affairs Council that advises the foreign ministry, told the BBC on Saturday he had not advised Russians officials to launch an invasion and that many in the Russian government were shocked at the decision.
> 
> “I would say that many of us in the foreign office were surprised and I would say shocked and I would even say devastated to see what is happening,” he said.
> 
> “This is an important red line that was crossed by the Russian leadership and the repercussions are likely to be very significant.”
> 
> Russia’s foreign ministry sought to punish some of the country’s most respected journalists for speaking out against the invasion.
> 
> Elena Chernenko, a veteran foreign affairs reporter for the Kommersant newspaper who often travelled with Sergey Lavrov, the foreign minister, said on Friday she was ejected from his pool for “unprofessionalism”.
> 
> Condemnation of the war was spreading across Russian society on Saturday. Architects, doctors and psychiatrists all published their anti-war petitions to add to earlier appeals by representatives of other professions.
> 
> Sporadic protests were reported in several Siberian cities, while in Moscow, police sealed off a central square, fearing unrest.
> 
> In St Petersburg, activists came to the city’s Piskaryovskoye cemetery, the resting place for the victims of the Siege of Leningrad, where they donned masks depicting skulls and held placards saying: “There are no patriots among the dead.”
> 
> Garage Museum of Contemporary Art, Moscow’s major contemporary art foundation, said it would halt work on “all exhibitions until the human and political tragedy that is unfolding in Ukraine has ceased”.
> 
> “We cannot support the illusion of normality when such events are taking place,” the museum said in a statement.
> 
> The museum was founded in 2008 by Dasha Zhukova and her then husband Roman Abramovich. On its Facebook page, the museum posted a black square, a symbol of Russia’s burgeoning anti-war movement.
> 
> In Moscow and London, several staff at the Russian state-funded news outlet RT reportedly resigned in response to the invasion.
> 
> The Moscow Art Theatre, Russia’s legendary drama theatre, has redone the logo on its Facebook page, adding a dove with a peace branch to the seagull from Anton Chekhov’s eponymous play.
> 
> For the third consecutive day, Russian state media appeared on Saturday to avoid calling the invasion a “war” and described it as a “special operation in the Donbas”. Their coverage focused on incremental gains made by separatist fighters in the region of eastern Ukraine, propped up by Russian forces.
> 
> Russian authorities who on Friday threatened to go after independent media quoting “unofficial” sources in their coverage moved to ban the word “war.”
> 
> Russia’s communications watchdog asked 10 media outlets to delete articles containing reports of civilian deaths and air strikes on Ukrainian cities, which according to the Kremlin do “not correspond to reality”.
> 
> The watchdog also took issue with the media calling Russia’s military operation “an assault, an invasion or a declaration of war”.
> The media outlets that refuse to comply would have their websites blocked and face hefty fines.
> 
> Russian officials later on Saturday also appeared to make good on their threats to limit access to social media as Facebook and Twitter were taking longer than usual to load.


----------



## Kirkhill

PPCLI Guy said:


> Well as an immigrant, I respectfully disagree with your characterisation.  I am a Canadian.  The Oxford English Dictionary agrees.


Me too!

Another immigrant me!


----------



## KevinB

HiTechComms said:


> Wouldn't that implicate Belarus as being in the War? What is the international law about hits?


They already made their bed.  Allowing RUF to stage from there and launch AGM’s from their airspace.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> If they hadn’t sold it for booze money earlier…


Many a Boris the farmer in Belarus looked lovingly and longingly on those entrenchers and thoughts, ‘Bylat, I’d be the envy on the Collective if my horses could pull one of those in the fields come spring.’


----------



## suffolkowner

Czech_pivo said:


> Many a Boris the farmer in Belarus looked lovingly and longingly on those entrenchers and thoughts, ‘Bylat, I’d be the envy on the Collective if my horses could pull one of those in the fields come spring.’


speaking of which



			https://twitter.com/Arslon_Xudosi
		


i dont know how to twitter but if you scroll down you can see a Ukrainian farmer stealing a APC


----------



## RaceAddict

suffolkowner said:


> speaking of which
> 
> 
> 
> https://twitter.com/Arslon_Xudosi
> 
> 
> 
> i dont know how to twitter but if you scroll down you can see a Ukrainian farmer stealing a APC


Voila:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498020061398847495


----------



## blacktriangle

It sounds like the GoC won't interfere with Canadians that want to volunteer to fight in Ukraine. That's good news. 

On a different note, I really hope this invasion forces the US, Canada, & Europe to rethink their energy policies that only serve to empower bad actors around the world. And it's time to get serious about dealing with China - even if it hurts.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Many a Boris the farmer in Belarus looked lovingly and longingly on those entrenchers and thoughts, ‘Bylat, I’d be the envy on the Collective if my horses could pull one of those in the fields come spring.’


Probably bought the tank too. 
   I remember crossing into East Berlin when the wall was coming down, and if I had any money I could have bought pretty much anything they had.


----------



## HiTechComms

suffolkowner said:


> speaking of which
> 
> 
> 
> https://twitter.com/Arslon_Xudosi
> 
> 
> 
> i dont know how to twitter but if you scroll down you can see a Ukrainian farmer stealing a APC


Kinda like Gypsies stole a Russian tank


----------



## Colin Parkinson

If Russia succeeds in Ukraine, it means Belarus will be even more in Russian control, then a new iron curtain falls and new Cold war for at least a decade or more.


----------



## HiTechComms

blacktriangle said:


> It sounds like the GoC won't interfere with Canadians that want to volunteer to fight in Ukraine. That's good news.
> 
> On a different note, I really hope this invasion forces the US, Canada, & Europe to rethink their energy policies that only serve to empower bad actors around the world. And it's time to get serious about dealing with China - even if it hurts.


Does that mean Alberta will get a pipeline out east?


----------



## KevinB

suffolkowner said:


> speaking of which
> 
> 
> 
> https://twitter.com/Arslon_Xudosi
> 
> 
> 
> i dont know how to twitter but if you scroll down you can see a Ukrainian farmer stealing a APC


Correct term is reallocate


----------



## HiTechComms

KevinB said:


> Correct term is reallocate


Irregular Purchase?


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498015342978809860


----------



## The Bread Guy

HiTechComms said:


> Buying insurance after you wrapped your car around a tree? CAF is continues to be a whipping boy of government budgets.


FTFY 


KevinB said:


> Correct term is reallocate


Finders, keepers, losers, weepers ...


----------



## KevinB

Remius said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498015342978809860


You know you’re on the Naughty List when…


----------



## dapaterson

Unintended consequences...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498025983609348102


----------



## MilEME09

Anyone able to confirm this? This would be suicidal for Russia.


----------



## SeaKingTacco

dapaterson said:


> Unintended consequences...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498025983609348102


Well, that was unexpected.


----------



## Czech_pivo

HiTechComms said:


> Kinda like Gypsies stole a Russian tank


I had a number of run ins with them in Prague and CR in the mid 90s. My days of drinking in downtown Detroit when I lived in Windsor came in handy during those occasions.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498053260112019462





						Institute for the Study of War
					

The Russian military has likely recognized that its initial expectations that limited Russian attacks would cause the collapse of Ukrainian resistance have failed and is recalibrating accordingly. The Russian military is moving additional combat




					www.understandingwar.org


----------



## HiTechComms

Czech_pivo said:


> I had a number of run ins with them in Prague and CR in the mid 90s. My days of drinking in downtown Detroit when I lived in Windsor came in handy during those occasions.


When I was a kid its was, if ain't nailed down and Gypsies are around. 

There are a lot of stereotypes.


----------



## kev994

MilEME09 said:


> View attachment 69059
> Anyone able to confirm this? This would be suicidal for Russia.


Once it’s in Ukraine maybe? It’s going to be pretty hard to target enroute.


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498053260112019462
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Institute for the Study of War
> 
> 
> The Russian military has likely recognized that its initial expectations that limited Russian attacks would cause the collapse of Ukrainian resistance have failed and is recalibrating accordingly. The Russian military is moving additional combat
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.understandingwar.org


looks like lots of hard days left for Ukraine


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> View attachment 69059
> Anyone able to confirm this? This would be suicidal for Russia.


All I've seen before this is a Russian official quoted by a pro-RUS (amplifier?) site saying it _might_ happen ...


> On the territory of Ukraine, persons transporting Western weapons to Kiev may become targets for spot strikes, said head of the Russian Federation Council Commission for the Protection of State Sovereignty Andrey Klimov, _RIA Novosti_ reported on February 27.
> 
> Klimov wondered how the weapons could physically get to Ukraine. It’s not like money that can be deposited into the account in Ukraine.
> 
> “_I have a simple question – how will these weapons get there now? I’m just wondering – how? Well, the money I can still imagine: they will put it in their accounts there. But the weapons physically, how will they get there?_”  ... The senator compared weapons to apples, but pointed out that apples are easier to carry than weapons. Transportation of weapons can be traced quickly, he stressed. Once the weapons get into Ukraine, we can do whatever we want with them as Russia conducts demilitarization.
> 
> “_As soon as it gets into Ukraine … we demilitarize it. It’s not like they’re bringing in apples. Don’t you think we can’t trace these shipments? It’s not like a penknife in your pocket,_” Klimov said.


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> All I've seen before this is a Russian official quoted by a pro-RUS (amplifier?) site saying it _might_ happen ...


Polish Border - Polish Airstrips...
   You know the place the US Army has now ringed with AD systems...


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Polish Border - Polish Airstrips...
> You know the place the US Army has now ringed with AD systems...


As much as this seems to be a Putin Bucket List go, I don't think he'd be quite that dumb - then again, irrational, violent ex's have been known to be dumb.

For your viewing pleasure, here's a map captured (as opposed to downloaded with potentially nasty electronic greeblies) from a pro-RUS amplifier site allegedly ... helped out by RUS's FSB ...


----------



## dapaterson

Fleece as an outer garment?  Are there no RSMs in the UKR Army?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498008580485693443


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> As much as this seems to be a Putin Bucket List go, I don't think he'd be quite that dumb - then again, irrational, violent ex's have been known to be dumb.
> 
> For your viewing pleasure, here's a map captured (as opposed to downloaded with potentially nasty electronic greeblies) from a pro-RUS amplifier site allegedly ... helped out by RUS's FSB ...


If Kherson is in Ukrainian hands right now, they need to exploit that and encircle the forces trapped on the west side of the river.


----------



## OceanBonfire

Verified by Amnesty International, widely-banned cluster munitions kill civilians who took shelter inside a preschool, killing three of them, including a child, and wounding another child. This is the fourth attack in this conflict that has struck a school that Amnesty International has verified. While Russia and Ukraine are not parties to the ICC, in 2015 Ukraine accepted the court’s jurisdiction over alleged crimes committed on its territory from 20 February 2014:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497970704276328448








						Cluster munitions kill child and two other civilians in Ukrainian Nursery
					

The attack appears to have been carried out by Russian forces operating nearby.




					www.amnesty.org


----------



## HiTechComms

What I am surprised at is how much Russians have really avoided at destroying Ukraine. 

1. They have avoided destroying critical infrastructure: Telecoms, Water, Electricity.
2. Civilian casualties.

I mean the Americans targeted those specifically when they went into the middle east.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498062838778273795


----------



## TacticalTea

HiTechComms said:


> What I am surprised at is how much Russians have really avoided at destroying Ukraine.
> 
> 1. They have avoided destroying critical infrastructure: Telecoms, Water, Electricity.
> 2. *Civilian casualties.
> 
> I mean the Americans targeted those specifically when they went into the middle east.*


Not to be rude, but man, you sure say a lot of weird shit.

You know, one of the first things I learned years ago as an officer cadet was humility.

Now, answer PPCLIGuy's question so the poor bastard can move on.


----------



## FM07

HiTechComms said:


> 1.They have avoided destroying critical infrastructure: Telecoms, Water, Electricity.
> 2. Civilian casualties.


Not to sure about number 2 there boss. Lots of innocents killed so far. On purpose too.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498086823003885570








						Belarus referendum approves proposal to renounce non-nuclear status - agencies
					

A referendum in Belarus on Sunday approved a new constitution ditching the country's non-nuclear status at a time when the former Soviet republic has become a launch pad for Russian troops invading Ukraine, Russian news agencies said.




					www.reuters.com
				





I don't think this bodes well for the future of Belarus...


----------



## HiTechComms

FM07 said:


> Not to sure about number 2 there boss. Lots of innocents killed so far. On purpose too.


Civilian casualties are always terrible.
I expected more civilian casualties that's all. I am simply looking at








						Civilian deaths in Iraq war 2003-2022 | Statista
					

Between 2003 and October 2022, the number of civilian deaths due to the Iraq war has fluctuated significantly.




					www.statista.com
				




I am not seeing anything that show Russians are targeting civilians.

I think there is extreme polarization between West and East Ukraine.


----------



## KevinB

HiTechComms said:


> What I am surprised at is how much Russians have really avoided at destroying Ukraine.
> 
> 1. They have avoided destroying critical infrastructure: Telecoms, Water, Electricity.
> 2. Civilian casualties.
> 
> I mean the Americans targeted those specifically when they went into the middle east.


Are you fucking serious?  
 1) Yes some Telecom was removed - simply based on Mil Requirements - Water and Electricity ?
 2) I can only assume you are a troll at this point, please enjoy my ignore list.


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> Civilian casualties are always terrible.
> I expected more civilian casualties that's all. I am simply looking at
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Civilian deaths in Iraq war 2003-2022 | Statista
> 
> 
> Between 2003 and October 2022, the number of civilian deaths due to the Iraq war has fluctuated significantly.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.statista.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I am not seeing anything that show Russians are targeting civilians.


You aren’t looking that’s the problem.


----------



## Spencer100

Czech_pivo said:


> I had a number of run ins with them in Prague and CR in the mid 90s. My days of drinking in downtown Detroit when I lived in Windsor came in handy during those occasions.


It was called Wheelers and sometimes your car was not there when you came out.  The DPS sometimes cared.      Did we bump into each other?


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> As much as this seems to be a Putin Bucket List go, I don't think he'd be quite that dumb - then again, irrational, violent ex's have been known to be dumb.
> 
> For your viewing pleasure, here's a map captured (as opposed to downloaded with potentially nasty electronic greeblies) from a pro-RUS amplifier site allegedly ... helped out by RUS's FSB ...



Never underestimate the power of idiots.


----------



## HiTechComms

KevinB said:


> Are you fucking serious?
> 1) Yes some Telecom was removed - simply based on Mil Requirements - Water and Electricity ?
> 2) I can only assume you are a troll at this point, please enjoy my ignore list.


Looking at all the sources. At least they are negotiating end to hostilities. To early to say, but I am standing by my first assessment that Russians will get rid of some elements of Ukraine leadership, Donbas and Crimea. Lets wait and see what happens after negotiations.

What do Russians want? What do Ukrainians want?

Following things on the Table (What I have read)

Russia
No NATO
No Nukes
Donbas Regions
Crimea

Ukraine
West Alignment
No territory given

It will come down to the leverage.  Will Russia win or Ukraine hold Russians back. I am not agreeing with Russians on any sense but something has to give. 

Now the crappy part. Civilian casualties. Ukrainian ethnic and Ukrainian Russian ethnic people. Both sides are gone suffer. Its a crappy solution using Military to get a Political settlement. I think we can all agree people not wanting to have governance and future is a given. In Canada we have a political process but Ukraine does not.






						War in Donbas - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## suffolkowner

HiTechComms said:


> What I am surprised at is how much Russians have really avoided at destroying Ukraine.
> 
> 1. They have avoided destroying critical infrastructure: Telecoms, Water, Electricity.
> 2. Civilian casualties.
> 
> I mean the Americans targeted those specifically when they went into the middle east.


I take your point about the Russians using more discretion than we are used to compared to Syria for example. But to compare them to the Americans is ridiculous.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498101552984346626


----------



## suffolkowner

HiTechComms said:


> Looking at all the sources. At least they are negotiating end to hostilities. To early to say, but I am standing by my first assessment that Russians will get rid of some elements of Ukraine leadership, Donbas and Crimea. Lets wait and see what happens after negotiations.
> 
> What do Russians want? What do Ukrainians want?



The Ukrainians want to be able to live and run their own country without threat from a foreign entity. Russian wants shouldn't even be considered


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498101552984346626


It's like Emperor Putin wants a nuclear war


----------



## MilEME09

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-27-22/h_75a6c52e82f84a4c0f636f2a26558ffb
		


EU president says it wants Ukraine In the bloc and is willing to discuss membership.


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> If Kherson is in Ukrainian hands right now, they need to exploit that and encircle the forces trapped on the west side of the river.



The one observation that stands out for me is the uniformity of depth of penetration.  There is no one incursion that has advanced farther than any of the others, and that includes the Crimean incursion.  And they are all a long way from linking up.

And still there are these tales of poor logistics and lack of fuel.

Battle of the Bulge?


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> Looking at all the sources. At least they are negotiating end to hostilities. To early to say, but I am standing by my first assessment that Russians will get rid of some elements of Ukraine leadership, Donbas and Crimea. Lets wait and see what happens after negotiations.
> 
> What do Russians want? What do Ukrainians want?


At least they are negociating to end hostilities? 

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.


----------



## HiTechComms

suffolkowner said:


> I take your point about the Russians using more discretion than we are used to compared to Syria for example. But to compare them to the Americans is ridiculous.


How many civilians died in Iraq from the WMD false flag.  Seriously.


----------



## PPCLI Guy

suffolkowner said:


> The Ukrainians want to be able to live and run their own country without threat from a foreign entity. Russian wants shouldn't even be considered


Exactly.  I can't believe that anyone (other than maybe a Russian misinformationista) is entertaining Russia's "wants" after they invaded another country.

Maybe whataboutism is a bad idea?


----------



## FM07

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498086823003885570
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Belarus referendum approves proposal to renounce non-nuclear status - agencies
> 
> 
> A referendum in Belarus on Sunday approved a new constitution ditching the country's non-nuclear status at a time when the former Soviet republic has become a launch pad for Russian troops invading Ukraine, Russian news agencies said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I don't think this bodes well for the future of Belarus...


I agree, very ominous. Large scale train convoys of armour are apparently on the way to Brest, roughly 10km from the Polish border.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498086823003885570
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Belarus referendum approves proposal to renounce non-nuclear status - agencies
> 
> 
> A referendum in Belarus on Sunday approved a new constitution ditching the country's non-nuclear status at a time when the former Soviet republic has become a launch pad for Russian troops invading Ukraine, Russian news agencies said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I don't think this bodes well for the future of Belarus...



The idiots are coming out in force.  I'd watch for the next decree removing lamp posts from the capital cities.


----------



## Remius

PPCLI Guy said:


> Exactly.  I can't believe that anyone (other than maybe a Russian misinformationista) is entertaining Russia's "wants" after they invaded another country.
> 
> Maybe whataboutism is a bad idea?


Not going to lie.  It looks exactly like Russian misinformation style crap.


----------



## HiTechComms

FM07 said:


> I agree, very ominous. Large scale train convoys of armour are apparently on the way to Brest, roughly 10km from the Polish border.


I am sure Poland will be happy about that.


----------



## Jarnhamar

KevinB said:


> Are you fucking serious?
> 1) Yes some Telecom was removed - simply based on Mil Requirements - Water and Electricity ?
> 2) I can only assume you are a troll at this point, please enjoy my ignore list.



Condemning Russia on the surface while sliding in subtle praise discreetly. 

AKA Sealioning.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Remius said:


> At least they are negociating to end hostilities?
> 
> Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.


Yes maybe we're being too hard on Russia eh?


----------



## suffolkowner

HiTechComms said:


> How many civilians died in Iraq from the WMD false flag.  Seriously.


Yeah the Gulf War 2 was a bad war in my opinion as well. It has nothing to do with whats going on now


----------



## HiTechComms

Remius said:


> At least they are negociating to end hostilities?
> 
> Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.


Posted before. I think both sides don't want this Regional conflict to become an International one.









						Ukraine Agrees to Meet for Negotiations With Russia at Belarus Border
					

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky agreed to hold discussions with Moscow "without preconditions."




					truthout.org
				












						Russia-Ukraine war: Negotiations between the two countries begin amid escalating tensions
					

The announcement of peace talks came hours after Moscow announced that its delegation had arrived at Belarus for negotiations.




					www.republicworld.com
				












						Ukrainian and Russian negotiators agree to hold talks in Belarus
					

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's office said a delegation of the Ukrainian government will meet for talks with Russian officials near the Pripyat River in Belarus.




					www.npr.org
				




All we have to do is sit an wait before jumping onboard of ship of conclusions and projections.


----------



## HiTechComms

suffolkowner said:


> Yeah the Gulf War 2 was a bad war in my opinion as well. It has nothing to do with whats going on now


What do you think is happening? Because no one seems to know. So why not wait and see what negotiations turn out.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498065109381431301


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497682868985905154


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498065109381431301


Talk about a letdown.

Anonymous needs to use a dictionary and look up the word ''hijack''.


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> What do you think is happening? Because no one seems to know. So why not wait and see what negotiations turn out.


Russia is lying.  Like they always do.   

Trying to buy time because they are struggling against a much smaller foe and looking like hot garbage while doing it.


----------



## suffolkowner

HiTechComms said:


> What do you think is happening? Because no one seems to know. So why not wait and see what negotiations turn out.


I don't understand this war. Ive said that before. 

I think Zelensky going to meet the Russians bears a striking amount of courage I hope he comes back


----------



## KevinB

TacticalTea said:


> Talk about a letdown.
> 
> Anonymous needs to use a dictionary and look up the word ''hijack''.


I'm not one of the biggest fans of theirs, well up til a week ago  - but they don't do violent stuff.
  They are Hackers and believe in Truth and Transparency (and #FUCKPUTIN).

They are conducting an anal rape of Russian IT systems - and I will take that as a heartfelt win.


----------



## HiTechComms

Remius said:


> Russia is lying.  Like they always do.
> 
> Trying to buy time because they are struggling against a much smaller foe and looking like hot garbage while doing it.


Everyone is lying.

But the point is that they are both heading to the Negotiating Table.  Lets see what happens next. Once negotiations get covered then we will see. Why not wait the day or two. 

Is this another 6 day war?


----------



## Altair

Remius said:


> Not going to lie.  It looks exactly like Russian misinformation style crap.


I was going to say that, but I thought it might be rude.

Glad someone said it though.


----------



## kev994

Altair said:


> I was going to say that, but I thought it might be rude.
> 
> Glad someone said it though.


I just spent 10 mins looking at their post history, pretty much all looks like that.


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> Everyone is lying.
> 
> But the point is that they are both heading to the Negotiating Table.  Lets see what happens next. Once negotiations get covered then we will see. Why not wait the day or two.
> 
> Is this another 6 day war?


Why wait?  Russia could surrender now.  Why wait 2 days?


----------



## HiTechComms

KevinB said:


> I'm not one of the biggest fans of theirs, well up til a week ago  - but they don't do violent stuff.
> They are Hackers and believe in Truth and Transparency (and #FUCKPUTIN).
> 
> They are conducting an anal rape of Russian IT systems - and I will take that as a heartfelt win.


I am very familiar with IT systems. The Russians have been raping IT systems of the west far longer, criminal actors and political actors.


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497682868985905154


Well this should amp up domestic pressure


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> I am very familiar with IT systems. The Russians have been raping IT systems of the west far longer, criminal actors and political actors.


Good.  More reason to send their economy back to the Stone Age.  The rubble won’t be worth more than Monopoly money by tomorrow.


----------



## PuckChaser

Remius said:


> Good.  More reason to send their economy back to the Stone Age.  The rubble won’t be worth more than Monopoly money by tomorrow.


Social media is already showing huge lines at public ATMs, with Russian media trying to slow the damage by claiming there's nothing bad coming to prevent the run on banks. We really need to choke out their Oil and LNG exports, that's a permanent solution to Russian aggression.


----------



## MilEME09

Remius said:


> Good.  More reason to send their economy back to the Stone Age.  The rubble won’t be worth more than Monopoly money by tomorrow.


It's already down 30%, today, it's almost worthless now


----------



## suffolkowner

Remius said:


> Why wait?  Russia could surrender now.  Why wait 2 days?











						Thread by @RihoTerras on Thread Reader App
					

@RihoTerras: THREAD 1/7 Intel from a Ukrainian officer about a meeting in Putin’s lair in Urals. Oligarchs convened there so no one would flee. Putin is furious, he thought that the whole war would be easy...…




					threadreaderapp.com
				




more internet propaganda?

interesting ideas on missile limitations. Maybe Russia is more like European NATO members than the US in not having enough war stock


----------



## Altair

PuckChaser said:


> Social media is already showing huge lines at public ATMs, with Russian media trying to slow the damage by claiming there's nothing bad coming to prevent the run on banks. We really need to choke out their Oil and LNG exports, that's a permanent solution to Russian aggression.


Does china choke with the west ?


----------



## HiTechComms

Remius said:


> Good.  More reason to send their economy back to the Stone Age.  The rubble won’t be worth more than Monopoly money by tomorrow.


I think we should fight back on the IT security front,  Canada has had its head in the sand about this for a long time. Having said that I don't think collapsing a currency will just punish the people in charge but only the average Joe/Jane. Go after the big wigs that can afford to lose money.


----------



## kev994

PuckChaser said:


> Social media is already showing huge lines at public ATMs, with Russian media trying to slow the damage by claiming there's nothing bad coming to prevent the run on banks. We really need to choke out their Oil and LNG exports, that's a permanent solution to Russian aggression.


I’ll take solar panels and electric cars for 1000 Alex…. Couldn’t resist.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498042489260982277
Would be great if Ukraine had some Missiles or UCAVs on station to wreck this massive convoy.


----------



## HiTechComms

Altair said:


> Does china choke with the? west


They have three pipelines with Russia. They increased their trade agreement from 10 billion to 140 billion. In addition the Chinese have stated they will only buy resources which they have to since they are certain resource poor. What else does Russian sell besides resources?


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Does china choke with the west ?


China always does what is in Chinas best interests.
   I suspect they have been looking at how effective NLAW and Javelin are - and the ISR feeds.
They can extrapolate that to the Naval Systems - and a country that we'd also defend (Taiwan) - and decide that maybe the West is a much better partner, that they can subvert financially in the long game.


----------



## Altair

HiTechComms said:


> I think we should fight back on the IT security front,  Canada has had its head in the sand about this for a long time. Having said that I don't think collapsing a currency will just punish the people in charge but only the average Joe/Jane. Go after the big wigs that can afford to lose money.


Russians have a wonderful history of revolutions and regime change after losing a war.

Russo Japanene war, ww1, afghan war.

Would be nice to add the  Russo Ukraine war to that list.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> China always does what is in Chinas best interests.
> I suspect they have been looking at how effective NLAW and Javelin are - and the ISR feeds.
> They can extrapolate that to the Naval Systems - and a country that we'd also defend (Taiwan) - and decide that maybe the West is a much better partner, that they can subvert financially in the long game.


#FloodTaiwanWithAA+AT


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498042489260982277
> Would be great if Ukraine had some Missiles or UCAVs on station to wreck this massive convoy.


Wonder if that is the Belarus contingent joining the fight, or Russian second wave from Belarus.

20min flight from a Polish Airbase - if those Lend Lease AirCraft where able to fly out right now - just saying


----------



## suffolkowner

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/viewer.html?pdfurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.benning.army.mil%2Farmor%2Fearmor%2Fcontent%2Fissues%2F2017%2Fspring%2F2Fiore17.pdf&clen=588629&chunk=true

not sure if I posted this before but a look at the weaknesses of the Russian BTG. Please give me your coles notes analysis!


----------



## HiTechComms

KevinB said:


> China always does what is in Chinas best interests.
> I suspect they have been looking at how effective NLAW and Javelin are - and the ISR feeds.
> They can extrapolate that to the Naval Systems - and a country that we'd also defend (Taiwan) - and decide that maybe the West is a much better partner, that they can subvert financially in the long game.


Wait what? Serious you think its good to cozy up to a nation with concentration camps for Uighurs?

China's policy is the 100 year sprint push. They have chosen to economically conquer. China doesn't use militaristic intervention dogma.
Look at their success in Afghanistan.


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498098581928034311


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> Wait what? Serious you think its good to cozy up to a nation with concentration camps for Uighurs?
> 
> China's policy is the 100 year sprint push. They have chosen to economically conquer. China doesn't use militaristic intervention dogma.
> Look at their success in Afghanistan.


Except their economy might collapse before the 100 year mark the way they are going.


----------



## HiTechComms

MilEME09 said:


> It's already down 30%, today, it's almost worthless now


Sounds like a good opportunity on shorting the through FX. I know several Chinese that live in Canada and day trade in China they are probably making a fortune. Sounds like a good investment opportunity.


----------



## suffolkowner

Remius said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498098581928034311


good news is I have lots of those little allen wrenchs to send over


----------



## HiTechComms

Remius said:


> Except their economy might collapse before the 100 year mark the way they are going.


Possibility then again it might be just like the other financial crisis they had. Than again they killed like 80 million of their own people. SO.. I think its a long shot.


----------



## kev994

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498042489260982277
> Would be great if Ukraine had some Missiles or UCAVs on station to wreck this massive convoy.


Looks like A-10 porn… they’re even lined up for straffing


----------



## Prairie canuck

Russia keeps waving the big nuclear stick and NATO carefully tries to avoid any provocations because of the threat.
Introducing Nuclear weapons to Belarus is yet another increased threat to NATO.

At what point does the bluff get called? It has to get called doesn't it?


----------



## HiTechComms

kev994 said:


> Looks like A-10 porn… they’re even lined up for straffing


Maybe Frogfoot if they have them in Ukraine.

Speaking of which (Russian not Ukranian) Prolly propaganda but still cool video.


----------



## HiTechComms

Prairie canuck said:


> Russia keeps waving the big nuclear stick and NATO carefully tries to avoid any provocations because of the threat.
> Introducing Nuclear weapons to Belarus is yet another increased threat to NATO.
> 
> At what point does the bluff get called? It has to get called doesn't it?


Nothing stops a NATO nation engaging in war without involving NATO it self.  I am sure all Belarus bordering countries are thrilled with this.


----------



## PPCLI Guy

HiTechComms said:


> I am very familiar with IT systems. The Russians have been raping IT systems of the west far longer, criminal actors and political actors.





HiTechComms said:


> Wait what? Serious you think its good to cozy up to a nation with concentration camps for Uighurs?
> 
> China's policy is the 100 year sprint push. They have chosen to economically conquer. China doesn't use militaristic intervention dogma.
> Look at their success in Afghanistan.





HiTechComms said:


> Sounds like a good opportunity on shorting the through FX. I know several Chinese that live in Canada and day trade in China they are probably making a fortune. Sounds like a good investment opportunity.





HiTechComms said:


> Maybe Frogfoot if they have them in Ukraine.
> 
> Speaking of which (Russian not Ukranian) Prolly propaganda but still cool video.


I learn so much in just 10 minutes of reading your posts....

My experience and education were obviously a wasted effort.

I know, I am being mean.


----------



## lenaitch

KevinB said:


> I'm not one of the biggest fans of theirs, well up til a week ago  - but they don't do violent stuff.
> They are Hackers and believe in Truth and Transparency (and #FUCKPUTIN).
> 
> They are conducting an anal rape of Russian IT systems - and I will take that as a heartfelt win.


I think it is a hoot what they are doing, but it is a little disconcerting to see the vulnerability of systems in the face of skilled hackers.  CSE needs to hire some of these guys away.  Pension and benefits!


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498117784110309377


----------



## HiTechComms

PPCLI Guy said:


> I learn so much in just 10 minutes of reading your posts....
> 
> My experience and education were obviously a wasted effort.
> 
> I know, I am being mean.


I love you too.

You are getting free entertainment so what are you complaining about?

Plus I paid for my own education out of my own pocket and at least I wasted my own money and not the public tax dollars.


----------



## Remius

PPCLI Guy said:


> I learn so much in just 10 minutes of reading your posts....
> 
> My experience and education were obviously a wasted effort.
> 
> I know, I am being mean.


All you had to do was watch Enemy at Gates and you would know as much as him about Russian tactics and wailing mothers.

I expect a lot of wailing in Russia when someone tries to make a withdrawal tomorrow.  I expect even more from Putin’s bunker if Kiev is still in Ukrainian hands tomorrow.


----------



## Altair

Prairie canuck said:


> Russia keeps waving the big nuclear stick and NATO carefully tries to avoid any provocations because of the threat.
> Introducing Nuclear weapons to Belarus is yet another increased threat to NATO.
> 
> At what point does the bluff get called? It has to get called doesn't it?


Im waiting for a cuba and Venezuela play.


----------



## PPCLI Guy

HiTechComms said:


> I love you too.
> 
> You are getting free entertainment so what are you complaining about?


How about that fitness thing.  Anything?


----------



## PPCLI Guy

Altair said:


> Im waiting for a cuba and Venezuela play.


I think Turkey is pretty critical in all of this....and the I and the C of BRICS have staked out their approach in NY....


----------



## Altair

PPCLI Guy said:


> How about that fitness thing.  Anything?


Hitechcomms IRL whenever you ask that.


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498117784110309377


Here's a better source

Bloomberg USD/RUB Data

RUB has fallen well below 1c in value.

That's in excess of 80% drop in value since 2006, the year ROBLOX launched and their virtual currency ROBUX still stands at a 1.25c per unit, thus now exceeding the Russian Ruble.

In the memetime, DJIA comfortably at 34k, only 6% below the pandemic peak of 36k.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Im waiting for a cuba and Venezuela play.


Neither of those want visitors right now. 
   You know COVID and all that, the US visit might cause a super spreader event that leads to a lot of death and dying.


----------



## HiTechComms

PPCLI Guy said:


> How about that fitness thing.  Anything?


Social media and practice your google foo. I owe you no answers. Your not my mother


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> Social media and practice your google foo. I owe you no answers.


Ah so nothing practical to go off of.  Got it.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Jarnhamar said:


> Canada's main effort will remain ensuring members of the CAF burn their vacation days before the end of the FY so no one accumulates leave.



…while also completing PERs and PARs on personal computers while on said leave…


----------



## Jarnhamar

HiTechComms said:


> Social media and practice your google foo. I owe you no answers. Your not my mother


It looks like you were trying to pass yourself off as something you're not. That's a big credibility issue here.


----------



## Remius

Eye In The Sky said:


> …while also completing PERs and PARs on personal computers while on said leave…


Don’t forget CODE training.


----------



## Prairie canuck

HiTechComms said:


> Nothing stops a NATO nation engaging in war without involving NATO it self.  I am sure all Belarus bordering countries are thrilled with this.


It's concerning that a supposed current junior officer in my country's armed forces has a blatant bias towards Chinese and Russian doctrine and disregard for international norms. I would hope your peers and your superiors are made aware of such. That being said I would much prefer an answer from others in this forum who know where their loyalties lie. In words you may understand "Trump Monkeys need not apply".


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498042673667706884
Would appear we aren't the only army that doesn't follow or read our doctrine


----------



## Czech_pivo

Spencer100 said:


> It was called Wheelers and sometimes your car was not there when you came out.  The DPS sometimes cared.      Did we bump into each other?


Lol, we might have for sure! Remember the free pizza at midnight? What years did you used to go there?


----------



## HiTechComms

Prairie canuck said:


> It's concerning that a supposed current junior officer in my country's armed forces has a blatant bias towards Chinese and Russian doctrine and disregard for international norms. I would hope your peers and your superiors are made aware of such. That being said I would much prefer an answer from others in this forum who know where their loyalties lie. In words you may understand "Trump Monkeys need not apply".


Statement of fact, not a call to action.  Jumping the shark aren't we.

Russia did the exact same thing, not agreeing with it. I simply stated the fact.

I am not jumping to conclusions based on a bunch of twitter/facebook hearsay. Its a regional conflict that has nothing to do with Canada. I rather see how this pans out, hopefully the politicians actually accomplish something. To me this looks like the perfect opportunity to run a psy ops, propaganda and misinformation warfare.  I don't think any one wants to die because of lies. I don't agree with what Russia is doing, I need to understand  why they are doing it and I might not like cause as I have no love for Russians.  Echo Chambers are dangerous.

But to insinuate that my loyalties are else where because I disagree that is a bit of a stretch. Then the Trumpian insult. Lol.. I am not an American. Don't care about Trump or Biden they are literally not my presidents.


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498042489260982277
> Would be great if Ukraine had some Missiles or UCAVs on station to wreck this massive convoy.


You would think that the Russians would have constant air support over the column and a large number of troops along the flanks. This could turn into a ‘flight from Kuwait City back to Iraq’ kind of scenario if the Gods of War favour the Ukrainians tomorrow.


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> You would think that the Russians would have constant air support over the column and a large number of troops along the flanks. This could turn into a ‘flight from Kuwait City back to Iraq’ kind of scenario if the Gods of War favour the Ukrainians tomorrow.


This would make the highway of death look like a picnic


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> Im waiting for a cuba and Venezuela play.


You certain the Cubans want to get on this merry-go-round?


----------



## Good2Golf

Prairie canuck said:


> It's concerning that a supposed current junior officer in my country's armed forces has a blatant bias towards Chinese and Russian doctrine and disregard for international norms. I would hope your peers and your superiors are made aware of such. That being said I would much prefer an answer from others in this forum who know where their loyalties lie. In words you may understand "Trump Monkeys need not apply".


Well, in fairness to HiTechComms, our PM admires at least half of Team Bear-Dragon, so there’s that…


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> You certain the Cubans want to get on this merry-go-round?


Cubans are iffy, they had better relations ubder Obama that got turned back with Trump, and havent moved much under Biden.

But Venezuela is a near permanent pyriah state and Maduro owes Russia for backing him during his revolution.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

dapaterson said:


> Upgrading the North Warning System (replaced the DEW line) would absorb a large amount of money.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Beyond the North Warning System - War on the Rocks
> 
> 
> Aug. 18 marked the 80th anniversary of the Canadian-U.S. Permanent Joint Board on Defense. This binational board of experts provides advice to the prime
> 
> 
> 
> warontherocks.com



Also…





__





						Government of Canada awards in-service support contract for North Warning System - Canada.ca
					

Today Public Services and Procurement Canada, on behalf of the Department of National Defence, awarded a contract to Nasittuq Corporation, an Inuit owned company, for the operation and maintenance of the North Warning System (NWS).




					www.canada.ca


----------



## Czech_pivo

Is anyone thinking that if we (collective ‘we’) keeping adding more and more pressure and painting Putin into an ever smaller corner that he might just snap and something truly, utterly bad happens? 

The pessimist in me is starting to elbow the optimist in me in the head and rise up to the forefront.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Prairie canuck said:


> It's concerning that a supposed current junior officer in my country's armed forces has a blatant bias towards Chinese and Russian doctrine and disregard for international norms. I would hope your peers and your superiors are made aware of such. That being said I would much prefer an answer from others in this forum who know where their loyalties lie. In words you may understand "Trump Monkeys need not apply".


You guys are soft, back in my day we had to wait till a field ex for a junior officer with map and compass to really show how far they can screw up. Now you guys get to watch them do on social media while sipping a cold one.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> Is anyone thinking that if we (collective ‘we’) keeping adding more and more pressure and painting Putin into an ever smaller corner that he might just snap and something truly, utterly bad happens?
> 
> The pessimist in me is starting to elbow the optimist in me in the head and rise up to the forefront.


Kind of.

I will put my hand up and say i never expected Ukraine to be doing this well, and I keep looking for a feint from the Russian side.

Now I'm realizing that Russia doesn't know how to fight a war versus a highly motivated and well supplied enemy force, especially one using urban centers as hardpoints.

Couple this with the Russian political and military class taking increasing heat at home, and toss in the possibility they actually lose, and the likely downfall of Putin as a result, I am afraid they break out the strategic bombers and fuel air bombs and completely flatten centers of resistance.

I'm not scared of nukes, because thats the one thing that will draw in NATO. But every weapon just below nukes I fear will be dusted off.


----------



## brihard

Do the Oligarchs support Putin because of political ideology, or because of potential profit?

He does not rule on strength of character alone. What are the levers to pull to undermine his support? What would cause those who underlie the (horribly corrupted) power structure in Russia to feel that their fortunes would be better in someone’s hands?

Offering Russia an easy out may be beneficial here: give them the option of throwing Putin under the bus. Trade him for peace, and something resembling status quo ante. Offer an immediate easing of some sanctions in exchange for his ouster, easing of more for his handover to justice, and a route to restoration of normal economic and diplomatic relations - and even a post-Putin embrace from Europe, to keep them out of China’s grasp. Inflict minimal pain on a post war Russia. Boost Ukraine via a Marshall plan. Russia has been held back by a despotic decade. There’s room for a post war democratic reform, the oligarchs can still make a lot of money, and there can be peace.


----------



## Altair

brihard said:


> Do the Oligarchs support Putin because of political ideology, or because of potential profit?
> 
> He does not rule on strength of character alone. What are the levers to pull to undermine his support? What would cause those who underlie the (horribly corrupted) power structure in Russia to feel that their fortunes would be better in someone’s hands?
> 
> Offering Russia an easy out may be beneficial here: give them the option of throwing Putin under the bus. Trade him for peace, and something resembling status quo ante. Offer an immediate easing of some sanctions in exchange for his ouster, easing of more for his handover to justice, and a route to restoration of normal economic and diplomatic relations - and even a post-Putin embrace from Europe, to keep them out of China’s grasp. Inflict minimal pain on a post war Russia. Boost Ukraine via a Marshall plan. Russia has been held back by a despotic decade. There’s room for a post war democratic reform, the oligarchs can still make a lot of money, and there can be peace.


Medvedev will be no better.

You need to couple this with actually free and fair elections in Russia.


----------



## PPCLI Guy

Altair said:


> Medvedev will be no better.
> 
> You need to couple this with actually free and fair elections in Russia.


And free and fair elections have all sorts of outcomes, not all pleasant....but are still absolutely the way to go


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Altair said:


> . But every weapon just below nukes I fear will be dusted off.


He really doesn't have a lot of other options to save face.....if that's even possible now.   This whole thing has shown weakness, the mortal enemy of any Godfather figure.  
Politics in Russia are going to be an interesting  study very soon.


----------



## brihard

Altair said:


> Medvedev will be no better.
> 
> You need to couple this with actually free and fair elections in Russia.


Yes, certainly. But the metric for “suck a bit less than the other guy” has changed dramatically.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498102270059335684
Tanks unsupported, looks like they got their turret rings hit


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> Kind of.
> 
> I will put my hand up and say i never expected Ukraine to be doing this well, and I keep looking for a feint from the Russian side.
> 
> Now I'm realizing that Russia doesn't know how to fight a war versus a highly motivated and well supplied enemy force, especially one using urban centers as hardpoints.
> 
> Couple this with the Russian political and military class taking increasing heat at home, and toss in the possibility they actually lose, and the likely downfall of Putin as a result, I am afraid they break out the strategic bombers and fuel air bombs and completely flatten centers of resistance.
> 
> I'm not scared of nukes, because thats the one thing that will draw in NATO. But every weapon just below nukes I fear will be dusted off.


I’m starting to think 5-10 days out to places like Kharkiv, Mauripol and many many others, when the fresh fruit and vegetables are all gone, the meds start to run low, electricity/gas/water/sanitation is cut, what happens then? How does a city of 1.2m like Kharkiv continue to resist? I don’t think anything like the 900 day siege of Leningrad is going to reoccur but what will occur?
Ukraine is much like Canada, it relies on a lot of fresh vegetables/fruit to be flown in or trucked across a border. Fly8ng is not an option and food convoys into places like Kharkiv may not be feasible shortly. 
It may not be the Russian Army that breaks the Ukrainians, it might be the Spector of hunger.


----------



## HiTechComms

Czech_pivo said:


> Is anyone thinking that if we (collective ‘we’) keeping adding more and more pressure and painting Putin into an ever smaller corner that he might just snap and something truly, utterly bad happens?
> 
> The pessimist in me is starting to elbow the optimist in me in the head and rise up to the forefront.


I don't think he will snap. He is a lawyer and politician, contrary to the misinformation he was never a spy, he worked in the secret service but as a legal trained professional. I think he knows exactly what he is doing. That doesn't mean he is not a sociopath but I highly doubt he will sacrifice all the Russian lives for his ego. He is a nationalist probably a racist as well and I don't think he wants non Russians part of Russia again.

I think the Russian Duma and him saw the writing on the wall and they needed to act, they succeeded in Crimea so why not try again. I don't think its going all to well for them but hardly any plan survives contact with the enemy.  I think the catalyst was Donbas and he used the same laws and wrangling that NATO used to bomb the crap out of Yugoslavia/Serbia with genocide reasoning (not sure how true this is). I just think shit went a little sideway on the Russians. If the negotiation start we will know more, with out the twitterati and facebook bs psyops. 

I am hoping this stops before more casualties pile up, Poland already has at least 1+ million Ukranians refugees since 2014, its becoming a serious humanitarian issue. Poland got bad rap from EU for not taking refugees out of Africa they already had a lot of Ukranian refugees and Poland is not rich nation. Another 115k arrived recently. Wonder if the EU will step up in this case. Recently spoke with family there and they are just as clueless as we are here and its just as bad for misinfo and propaganda. Yeah. I rather not see this regional conflict escalate to an international one.


----------



## Altair

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> He really doesn't have a lot of other options to save face.....if that's even possible now.   This whole thing has shown weakness, the mortal enemy of any Godfather figure.
> Politics in Russia are going to be an interesting  study very soon.


Yeah. If he had the supplies, fuel,rations, and ammunition he could grind this out.

If the reports are to be believed that he has 2 weeks worth to keep fighting at this tempo he's going to facing a dire military situation.

I honestly can not believe that the domestic arms industry in Russia hasn't spent the last 3-4 years prepping for this. 

Because you're right, he does not seem to have the time for his army to learn on the fly and get better as this drags on. He needs to find a path to victory within the next week if those supply limitations are anywhere close to accurate.

So I can imagine fuel air bombs and carpet bombing are being considered as we speak. Because just throwing more troops at the problem is not working versus Ukraine.


----------



## TacticalTea

Altair said:


> So I can imagine *fuel air bombs and carpet bombing* are being considered as we speak. Because just throwing more troops at the problem is not working versus Ukraine.


If those don't lead to a no-fly zone...

Well I probably won't do anything but I'll be very depressed.


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> Yeah. I rather not see this regional conflict escalate to an international one.


you aren’t paying attention at all are you?


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Hard to install a puppet Govt when you've destroyed the strings and the stage though.


----------



## Altair

TacticalTea said:


> If those don't lead to a no-fly zone...
> 
> Well I probably won't do anything but I'll be very depressed.


It wont, because the calculas will not have changed.

What does the west do to enforce a no fly zone? Shoot down russian fighters and bombers?

Will that be an act of war? Does an act of war lead to a war versus russia and the west? Does a war versus russia and the west lead to nukes?

Nuke, nukes are the only thing i think that changes that calculas.


----------



## HiTechComms

Altair said:


> Yeah. If he had the supplies, fuel,rations, and ammunition he could grind this out.
> 
> If the reports are to be believed that he has 2 weeks worth to keep fighting at this tempo he's going to facing a dire military situation.
> 
> I honestly can not believe that the domestic arms industry in Russia hasn't spent the last 3-4 years prepping for this.
> 
> Because you're right, he does not seem to have the time for his army to learn on the fly and get better as this drags on. He needs to find a path to victory within the next week if those supply limitations are anywhere close to accurate.
> 
> So I can imagine fuel air bombs and carpet bombing are being considered as we speak. Because just throwing more troops at the problem is not working versus Ukraine.


Shock and awe strategy would never work against a modestly modern military.

My bet is once negotiations start it will change. My bets they will just turn around and go home. Russia has no interest in Ukraine as its a poor country that I don't think Russian tax payers want to pay for.  Its to get them to negotiate as previously nothing got them to sit at the table, yes its an unfair tactic but it is a strategy that will work.

What the estimates of Russian army 850k ? I mean how much is in Ukraine now 50-60k? If Russia wanted to over run Ukraine I think they could have done it but I don't think that is the long term goal.

No fly zone.. It will never happen. It didn't happen in Syria it will not happen in Ukraine. This would just escalate to international incident.


----------



## Altair

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> Hard to install a puppet Govt when you've destroyed the strings and the stage though.


If i were to guess, a puppet regime is already off the table. Nothing tied to putin at this point will be considered legitimate by Ukrainians.

I think we see the shift to federated Ukraine, where he can play the regions off of one another to get what he wants. With the donbass regions having some form of veto power over decisions made in Kiev.


----------



## Prairie canuck

TacticalTea said:


> If those don't lead to a no-fly zone...
> 
> Well I probably won't do anything but I'll be very depressed.


Would NATO impose a humanitarian corridor on the pretext of providing a safe route to refugees and push into Ukraine to defend it? kind of a narrow no fly/no ground forces zone?


----------



## Altair

Prairie canuck said:


> Would NATO impose a humanitarian corridor on the pretext of providing a safe route to refugees and push into Ukraine to defend it? kind of a narrow no fly/no ground forces zone?


Think one hard long minute of how NATO would enforce that.


----------



## HiTechComms

Remius said:


> you aren’t paying attention at all are you?


Its a regional conflict that has been made public via media and social media. International as in multiple actors; as in other nations Armies.. Nope its Ukrainians vs Russians.


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> Its a regional conflict that has been made public via media and social media. International as in multiple actors; as in other nations Armies.. Nope its Ukrainians vs Russians.


Good thing no one here takes you seriously.


----------



## Prairie canuck

Altair said:


> Think one hard long minute of how NATO would enforce that.


I am aware it would involve NATO land and air assets pushing into Ukraine. Thus poking the bear so to speak.


----------



## HiTechComms

No one takes the internet seriously.


----------



## MilEME09

Prairie canuck said:


> Would NATO impose a humanitarian corridor on the pretext of providing a safe route to refugees and push into Ukraine to defend it? kind of a narrow no fly/no ground forces zone?


I think we would have better luck telling Belarus to back off, or else, Putin wouldn't risk nuclear war for Belarus.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> If i were to guess, a puppet regime is already off the table. Nothing tied to putin at this point will be considered legitimate by Ukrainians.
> 
> I think we see the shift to federated Ukraine, where he can play the regions off of one another to get what he wants. With the donbass regions having some form of veto power over decisions made in Kiev.


I’m thinking that if Ukraine can manage to get into the EU and part of the price of admission is cutting ties with Donbass and Krim, they will do it.


----------



## HiTechComms

Czech_pivo said:


> I’m thinking that if Ukraine can manage to get into the EU and part of the price of admission is cutting ties with Donbass and Krim, they will do it.


Yep. Ironically that's what Putin wants as well.


----------



## MilEME09

3rd Ukrainian Drone Strike Hits Russian Targets
					

The Ukrainian military released a third video of a Bayraktar TB2 drone strike against Russian military vehicle formations.




					funker530.com
				




Looks like the Ukrainians hit the convoy


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498147133068873738


----------



## Kirkhill

brihard said:


> Do the Oligarchs support Putin because of political ideology, or because of potential profit?
> 
> He does not rule on strength of character alone. What are the levers to pull to undermine his support? What would cause those who underlie the (horribly corrupted) power structure in Russia to feel that their fortunes would be better in someone’s hands?
> 
> Offering Russia an easy out may be beneficial here: give them the option of throwing Putin under the bus. Trade him for peace, and something resembling status quo ante. Offer an immediate easing of some sanctions in exchange for his ouster, easing of more for his handover to justice, and a route to restoration of normal economic and diplomatic relations - and even a post-Putin embrace from Europe, to keep them out of China’s grasp. Inflict minimal pain on a post war Russia. Boost Ukraine via a Marshall plan. Russia has been held back by a despotic decade. There’s room for a post war democratic reform, the oligarchs can still make a lot of money, and there can be peace.


Brihard - no easy outs for him.

For a change let's follow the Ukrainians' lead.  We owe that to all the Easterners who have seen others define their borders.


----------



## brihard

Kirkhill said:


> Brihard - no easy outs for him.
> 
> For a change let's follow the Ukrainians' lead.  We owe that to all the Easterners who have seen others define their borders.


Read again. I’m not suggesting an easy out for Putin.


----------



## TacticalTea

Altair said:


> It wont, because the calculas will not have changed.
> 
> What does the west do to enforce a no fly zone? Shoot down russian fighters and bombers?
> 
> Will that be an act of war? Does an act of war lead to a war versus russia and the west? Does a war versus russia and the west lead to nukes?
> 
> Nuke, nukes are the only thing i think that changes that calculas.


By that logic, an invasion of Poland wouldn't change anything either.


----------



## Remius

Czech_pivo said:


> I’m thinking that if Ukraine can manage to get into the EU and part of the price of admission is cutting ties with Donbass and Krim, they will do it.


Pretty sure Putin would not be happy with Ukraine in the EU let alone NATO.  Something tells me though that will be the end result.  Putin won’t have achieved his goals but will try to save face with whatever scraps he can get and try to survive the fallout.


----------



## Altair

TacticalTea said:


> By that logic, an invasion of Poland wouldn't change anything either.


Not really. Putin isn't touching NATO members because it would start a war with NATO that could go nuclear. 

NATO isn't fighting with Ukraine because it might start a war that could go nuclear. 

NATO isn't going to enforce a no fly zone because it may start a war that could go nuclear. 

Russia and NATO are not going to get directly involved with one another in this war unless their hand is forced. That includes a no fly zone.


----------



## HiTechComms

Remius said:


> Pretty sure Putin would not be happy with Ukraine in the EU let alone NATO.  Something tells me though that will be the end result.  Putin won’t have achieved his goals but will try to save face with whatever scraps he can get and try to survive the fallout.


Both sides will have to compromise. At least they will be talking and not shooting (hopefully)


----------



## Remius

brihard said:


> Read again. I’m not suggesting an easy out for Putin.


He’s put himself in quite the corner.


----------



## Altair

HiTechComms said:


> Both sides will have to compromise. At least they will be talking and not shooting (hopefully)


----------



## Kirkhill

brihard said:


> Read again. I’m not suggesting an easy out for Putin.



Sorry.  Time to take a break for the day.  Jumping the gun. 

Cheers.


----------



## HiTechComms

Altair said:


>


Oh so many things.


----------



## MilEME09

HiTechComms said:


> Both sides will have to compromise. At least they will be talking and not shooting (hopefully)


Compromise? Russia is in no position to demand anything anymore


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498160087323627520


----------



## Colin Parkinson

HiTechComms said:


> Yep. Ironically that's what Putin wants as well.


He might have settled for that, this time last year. Now he is committed to taking all of it or leaving a barely functioning rump.


----------



## HiTechComms

MilEME09 said:


> Compromise? Russia is in no position to demand anything anymore


We will see in a few days. They did force Ukraine to the negotiate. Russians want a political solution not a military one. That doesn't mean they are not willing to use military to force a Political solution.

Russians did before. Forced Poland to drop all claims against (East)Germany of WW2 reparation's.


----------



## Good2Golf

HiTechComms said:


> Both sides will have to compromise. At least they will be talking and not shooting (hopefully)


Exactly. Putin must publicly atone for his unjustified destruction of another nation, and Zelenskyy should probably allow the Russian forces to drag what vehicles they have left that aren’t burning, back into Russian soil.

#WinWin


----------



## MilEME09

HiTechComms said:


> We will see in a few days. They did force Ukraine to the negotiate. Russians want a political solution not a military one. That doesn't mean they are not willing to use military to force a Political solution.
> 
> Russians did before. Forced Poland to drop all claims against (East)Germany of WW2 reparation's.


If they wanted a political solution they wouldn't have invaded. Now they are paying in blood and Kyiv will get Crimea back at this rate at the peace talks.


----------



## GK .Dundas

I believe that the Russian's should be allowed to walk away with as much face as they can....     But that's all they should be allowed to walk away with !


----------



## Kat Stevens

"March home, and beg forgiveness from every Ukrainian citizen you meet on the way"


----------



## brihard

Let the _Russians_ walk away. But make Putin’s death or surrender to custody a precondition for the restoration of anything close to normal economic relations.


----------



## HiTechComms

MilEME09 said:


> If they wanted a political solution they wouldn't have invaded. Now they are paying in blood and Kyiv will get Crimea back at this rate at the peace talks.


From my reading this is what I have learned. Its an understanding of the situation more so then agreement/disagreement. IT IS WHAT IT IS. Hindsight is 2020. I have no ability to change what's happening.

Except Ukraine would have never agreed to that. Not defending just stating some knowns. Crimea and Donbas regions both have predominantly Russian ethnic population they do not support Ukraine current government (Support for the current president in the east is like 17%). Background context. I think its a little arrogant to presume that everyone assumes everyone in Ukraine is Ukrainian ethnicity, they are not. They are very much a diverse country of ethnicities.

I know both are a little different at this point. After the Crimea response was non existent, and the over throw of the previous government and policies forced Donbas to say we want some autonomy and stop with your anti Russian policies such as forbidding Russian language (That's like saying in Quebec you cannot use French).  Ukraine government said no, long story short they decided they wanted out of Ukraine. Also they didn't like some of the dare I say it Ukrainian Neo-Nazi (Hard to believe it but it is true there have been ties to this since ww2-google it.) individuals in the government. Ukraine has no legal framework for session through peaceful measures. Civil war break outs, 8 years later here we are. (Could have been averted if regional autonomy was given, its not unheard of I mean Canada gave a lot of autonomy to Quebec)

I agree with everyone that if people chose their own destiny they should be able to if the consensus is reached. There just wasn't a legal framework to make any of this work. It just kept spiraling down a rabbit hole. In Canada we are very lucky we can have a referendum and peacefully divorce possibility (1995 Quebec thing) Although previously the separatists tried the violent route, it didn't have the support nor did it go well, military was used (yeah yeah stupidity imo of FLQ) In fact few countries on this planet would have a peaceful divorce.

I love how everyone claims Blood of Ukrainians, what about the Blood of those in Donbas? Blood is Blood. Unless the people of Donbas are not to be afforded their own destiny?

Russia was also informally promised during USSR collapse NATO wouldn't go beyond a certain geographic region, but nope NATO kept expanding. Russians think that NATO would put nukes in Ukraine. Access to the Black sea as well (Crimea) Large Russian Naval base was in Ukraine. This also scares the crap out of them. I mean it scared the crap out of the Americans during the Cuban missile crisis.
Russians haven't been very forceful on this issue for a long time but I believe Russia drew this line in 2004 as a red line not to be crossed, Georgia wanting to be in NATO. Who here even remembers Georgia fiasco?

Its a very nuanced and complicated situation. I don't know every detail.

I DO NOT AGREE WITH WHAT RUSSIA IS DOING, But I understand why they are doing it.  Through Russia eyes this is an existential threat to national security. They are forcing Ukrainian to the negotiation table because if Ukraine agrees through Political means that they have no jurisdiction over Crimea or Donbas the rest of the world will be forced to recognize it.  As for the NATO question and EU question I don't know. NATO I think is out of the question as for the EU, I don't think Ukraine would even qualify to the EU due to corruption and poverty.

Yes it sucks people are dying, but I don't think its worth going to WW3 over do you? Its a Regional conflict the actors are Russians and Ukrainians. Lets keep it at that.

Its kind of scary how everyone wants to just go to war and call on vengeance and revenge calling on killing of leaders because they don't like them. I say do it through the ballot box. Most of the people don't understand nor have any skin in the game over this conflict, but people in Ukraine and Russia will pay with lives.
Lastly I think there is a general misconception that Putin is a dictator, there is a Parliament(Duma), Federation Council. All these measures were voted on by the representatives and powers given to Putin.
If you are that gung ho go be a Merc and fight in Ukraine they have foreign fighters.


----------



## HiTechComms

Kat Stevens said:


> "March home, and beg forgiveness from every Ukrainian citizen you meet on the way"


I would bet that Donbas region would welcome Russia as liberators.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> If they wanted a political solution they wouldn't have invaded. Now they are paying in blood and Kyiv will get Crimea back at this rate at the peace talks.


The only way Crimea becomes Ukrainian again is if Russia collapses as a State and they take it by force.


----------



## NotSoWiseKingSolomon

HiTechComms said:


> What I am surprised at is how much Russians have really avoided at destroying Ukraine.
> 
> 1. They have avoided destroying critical infrastructure: Telecoms, Water, Electricity.
> 2. Civilian casualties.
> 
> I mean the Americans targeted those specifically when they went into the middle east.


Not commenting on the last sentence.
From a Russia perspective, it makes sense to just initially just target military and avoid civilians. Each civilian you kill is another 3 insurgents.
They see themselves as one people (and they more or less were at least more east under the USSR and during KIEV-RUS eras).
The longer it goes on, the more and more casual civilians will be brought into this.


HiTechComms said:


> From my reading this is what I have learned. Its an understanding of the situation more so then agreement/disagreement. IT IS WHAT IT IS. Hindsight is 2020. I have no ability to change what's happening.
> 
> Except Ukraine would have never agreed to that. Not defending just stating some knowns. Crimea and Donbas regions both have predominantly Russian ethnic population they do not support Ukraine current government (Support for the current president in the east is like 17%). Background context. I think its a little arrogant to presume that everyone assumes everyone in Ukraine is Ukrainian ethnicity, they are not. They are very much a diverse country of ethnicities.
> 
> I know both are a little different at this point. After the Crimea response was non existent, and the over throw of the previous government and policies forced Donbas to say we want some autonomy and stop with your anti Russian policies such as forbidding Russian language (That's like saying in Quebec you cannot use French).  Ukraine government said no, long story short they decided they wanted out of Ukraine. Also they didn't like some of the dare I say it Ukrainian Neo-Nazi (Hard to believe it but it is true there have been ties to this since ww2-google it.) individuals in the government. Ukraine has no legal framework for session through peaceful measures. Civil war break outs, 8 years later here we are. (Could have been averted if regional autonomy was given, its not unheard of I mean Canada gave a lot of autonomy to Quebec)
> 
> I agree with everyone that if people chose their own destiny they should be able to if the consensus is reached. There just wasn't a legal framework to make any of this work. It just kept spiraling down a rabbit hole. In Canada we are very lucky we can have a referendum and peacefully divorce possibility (1995 Quebec thing) Although previously the separatists tried the violent route, it didn't have the support nor did it go well, military was used (yeah yeah stupidity imo of FLQ) In fact few countries on this planet would have a peaceful divorce.
> 
> I love how everyone claims Blood of Ukrainians, what about the Blood of those in Donbas? Blood is Blood. Unless the people of Donbas are not to be afforded their own destiny?
> 
> Russia was also informally promised during USSR collapse NATO wouldn't go beyond a certain geographic region, but nope NATO kept expanding. Russians think that NATO would put nukes in Ukraine. Access to the Black sea as well (Crimea) Large Russian Naval base was in Ukraine. This also scares the crap out of them. I mean it scared the crap out of the Americans during the Cuban missile crisis.
> Russians haven't been very forceful on this issue for a long time but I believe Russia drew this line in 2004 as a red line not to be crossed, Georgia wanting to be in NATO. Who here even remembers Georgia fiasco?
> 
> Its a very nuanced and complicated situation. I don't know every detail.
> 
> I DO NOT AGREE WITH WHAT RUSSIA IS DOING, But I understand why they are doing it.  Through Russia eyes this is an existential threat to national security. They are forcing Ukrainian to the negotiation table because if Ukraine agrees through Political means that they have no jurisdiction over Crimea or Donbas the rest of the world will be forced to recognize it.  As for the NATO question and EU question I don't know. NATO I think is out of the question as for the EU, I don't think Ukraine would even qualify to the EU due to corruption and poverty.
> 
> Yes it sucks people are dying, but I don't think its worth going to WW3 over do you? Its a Regional conflict the actors are Russians and Ukrainians. Lets keep it at that.
> 
> Its kind of scary how everyone wants to just go to war and call on vengeance and revenge calling on killing of leaders because they don't like them. I say do it through the ballot box. Most of the people don't understand nor have any skin in the game over this conflict, but people in Ukraine and Russia will pay with lives.
> Lastly I think there is a general misconception that Putin is a dictator, there is a Parliament(Duma), Federation Council. All these measures were voted on by the representatives and powers given to Putin.
> If you are that gung ho go be a Merc and fight in Ukraine they have foreign fighters.


Good recap. You must understand your enemy to beat your enemy.  It's not sympathizing  or trolling as some make you out to be, sit isn't black and white.  Call it playing the Devil's advocate. 
Russia is being "softer on civilians" , he sees Russia and Eastern Ukrainians as one people (USSR and KIEV RUS eras) but more importantly, to carpet bomb civilians will lead to a lot more insurgent.

I too understand Putin and how he set all this up, not going as well as he hope but alas here we are. Putin spent a lot of time getting rid of people that did not agree with him, and it left him in an echo chamber where they thought they would be done the war already, let us not fall into that trap here and foster discussion. 
A question to be raised is not whether is Russia right or wrong, or do you support Ukraine. The question is, is Ukraine worth the possibility of WW3? And not even a personal opinion, will NATO risk WW3 over this?


----------



## Prairie canuck

NotSoWiseKingSolomon said:


> Not commenting on the last sentence.
> From a Russia perspective, it makes sense to just initially just target military and avoid civilians. Each civilian you kill is another 3 insurgents.
> They see themselves as one people (and they more or less were at least more east under the USSR and during KIEV-RUS eras).
> The longer it goes on, the more and more casual civilians will be brought into this.
> 
> Good recap. You must understand your enemy to beat your enemy.  It's not sympathizing  or trolling as some make you out to be, sit isn't black and white.  Call it playing the Devil's advocate.
> Russia is being "softer on civilians" , he sees Russia and Eastern Ukrainians as one people (USSR and KIEV RUS eras) but more importantly, to carpet bomb civilians will lead to a lot more insurgent.
> 
> I too understand Putin and how he set all this up, not going as well as he hope but alas here we are. Putin spent a lot of time getting rid of people that did not agree with him, and it left him in an echo chamber where they thought they would be done the war already, let us not fall into that trap here and foster discussion.
> A question to be raised is not whether is Russia right or wrong, or do you support Ukraine. The question is, is Ukraine worth the possibility of WW3? And not even a personal opinion, will NATO risk WW3 over this?


FFS there's 2 of them now. Troll factory minions.


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498060310959243269
Putin still has some friends.

Of course the best of the best of murders row


----------



## The Bread Guy

Daring move - UKR Pres says "if we arrested you for fighting for the other side, and have combat experience, you'll be able to redeem yourself @ the front" (text of this morning's statement also attached in case link doesn't work) ....


> ... a decision was made - not easy from a moral point of view, but useful from the point of view of our protection. Under martial law, participants in hostilities - Ukrainians with real combat experience - will be released from custody and will be able to compensate for their guilt in the hottest spots of war. All sanctions are lifted from some people who took part in the anti-terrorist operation. The key now is defense ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

HiTechComms said:


> I would bet that Donbas region would welcome Russia as liberators.


Some - maaaaaaybe.  Most?  We'll see ...


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498191541675958273
Lates from the UK MOD


----------



## McG

brihard said:


> Do the Oligarchs support Putin because of political ideology, or because of potential profit?


At this point, it is probably fear that keeps them in-line. They don’t want to be disappeared, and Putin wields state levers like a mob boss.


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Let's keep it civil in here folks.

Bruce


----------



## The Bread Guy

Opinion piece in UKR media


			https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/canadian-aid-too-little-too-late.html
		

Text also attached in case link doesn't work


----------



## KevinB

McG said:


> At this point, it is probably fear that keeps them in-line. They don’t want to be disappeared, and Putin wields state levers like a mob boss.


At this point, they have to be thinking about the best way to disappear Putin.  I suspect Vlad himself is wondering what his internal capital is at this point.   He’s calling in ever favor owed, and some that owe are now telling him to Pound Sand.   

Everyone can see the hit Russian forces are taking.  

— 
  UNGA vote today will be interesting and have long term ripples for the future of the world.   That will be a clear marker of exactly what Capital Russia has left.  

Do I think much of the UN, no, but most of the world has been watching and seen NATO weapons used very effectively by a extremely determined Ukrainian population.  

They have also seen Russia act like a drunken teenage bully, and long term Neutral countries take a stand against it.


----------



## The Bread Guy

McG said:


> At this point, it is probably fear that keeps them in-line. They don’t want to be disappeared, and Putin wields state levers like a mob boss.


But even the harshest mob bosses don't tend to remain invulnerable _forever.  _Wonder where the breaking point'll be?


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> But even the harshest mob bosses don't tend to remain invulnerable _forever.  _Wonder where the breaking point'll be?


How far can the Rubble fall before Putin hits the ground...

More importantly what will he do (or be allowed to do) before that.


----------



## suffolkowner

There are not that many Russians in Ukraine anymore most were in Crimea and the Donbas. A great many Ukrainians speak Russian that does not make them Russian. This has been asked and answered many time internally within Ukraine

Russia has a broken system where to deny the regime is death so problems are papered over and buried instead of brought up and dealt with they are much closer to the Afghanistan army than the US. Including paper battalions. The lack of missile production is because they can't do it just like they haven't been able to manufacture Armata tanks and just like they haven't been able to produce new jet fighter not new new like but just replacement SU-30

I fear and hope for Ukraine they are paying a big price to wound maybe even cripple the Russian bear


----------



## Good2Golf

McG said:


> At this point, it is probably fear that keeps them in-line. They don’t want to be disappeared, and Putin wields state levers like a mob boss.


He doesn’t hold all the levers.  He has majority influence over the KGB faction, but the oligarchs are significant influencers of the mafia side of things, and that’s not to be underestimated. Putin must still balance his powers and those of his supporters.


----------



## McG

KevinB said:


> At this point, they have to be thinking about the best way to disappear Putin. I suspect Vlad himself is wondering what his internal capital is at this point. He’s calling in ever favor owed, and some that owe are now telling him to Pound Sand.





The Bread Guy said:


> But even the harshest mob bosses don't tend to remain invulnerable _forever. _Wonder where the breaking point'll be?


One hopes we are getting there.


----------



## ueo

Altair said:


> Kind of.
> 
> I will put my hand up and say i never expected Ukraine to be doing this well, and I keep looking for a feint from the Russian side.
> 
> Now I'm realizing that Russia doesn't know how to fight a war versus a highly motivated and well supplied enemy force, especially one using urban centers as hardpoints.
> 
> Couple this with the Russian political and military class taking increasing heat at home, and toss in the possibility they actually lose, and the likely downfall of Putin as a result, I am afraid they break out the strategic bombers and fuel air bombs and completely flatten centers of resistance.
> 
> I'm not scared of nukes, because thats the one thing that will draw in NATO. But every weapon just below nukes I fear will be dusted off.


Into the "every weapon" spectrum falls chem and bio. Yes I realize these  are proscribed but that hasn't been much of a deterrant to various tinpot dickheads. So are we ready to defend against either a well or not so well targetted attack or just continue to have our collective heads up our arses?


----------



## RangerRay

You know things are bad when neutral countries (Sweden, Finland) join NATO, Sweden and Germany send anti-tank missiles to a war zone, and Switzerland participates in EU sanctions.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Anyone else notice that Germany's announcement over the weekend that they are stepping up military spending and are now publicly committing to honour the 2% pledge is getting ZERO coverage here in Canada?  Nothing mentioned by any of the mainstream media, no similar calls for Canada to finally start honouring its previously announced commitment as well.  And people say that the Canadian media is not in the pockets of a certain political party - stuff like this certainly doesn't help.


----------



## Altair

ueo said:


> Into the "every weapon" spectrum falls chem and bio. Yes I realize these  are proscribed but that hasn't been much of a deterrant to various tinpot dickheads. So are we ready to defend against either a well or not so well targetted attack or just continue to have our collective heads up our arses?


You want a honest answer or the answer that would make us collectively feel better?


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> Anyone else notice that Germany's announcement over the weekend that they are stepping up military spending and are now publicly committing to honour the 2% pledge is getting ZERO coverage here in Canada?  Nothing mentioned by any of the mainstream media, no similar calls for Canada to finally start honouring its previously announced commitment as well.  And people say that the Canadian media is not in the pockets of a certain political party - stuff like this certainly doesn't help.


Since when has it been as germany goes as goes Canada?


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Anyone else notice that Germany's announcement over the weekend that they are stepping up military spending and are now publicly committing to honour the 2% pledge is getting ZERO coverage here in Canada?  Nothing mentioned by any of the mainstream media, no similar calls for Canada to finally start honouring its previously announced commitment as well.  And people say that the Canadian media is not in the pockets of a certain political party - stuff like this certainly doesn't help.


German effectively doubled its Military Budget this year - which works out to about 45B USD extra to spend on modernization.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Since when has it been as germany goes as goes Canada?


Furthermore German is in the heart of it.  Life got a lot more "real" for Germans in the past week.

Canada has the advantage of still being at the Mall, not the Wall.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498243146601349125  I'm guessing the UKR got some Mig's and SU's this weekend...


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498289020757061632


----------



## tomydoom

KevinB said:


> German effectively doubled its Military Budget this year - which works out to about 45B USD extra to spend on modernization.


I watched the announcement on BBC, my jaw hit the floor.  The Germans are angry.


----------



## KevinB

Leadership

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498224921205481478
and Anon strikes again 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498072266583818241


----------



## Dana381

tomydoom said:


> I watched the announcement on BBC, my jaw hit the floor.  The Germans are angry.



Angry or scared?


----------



## KevinB

Dana381 said:


> Angry or scared?


Both - but the voters are more angry than scared.
 AND a lot of shame


----------



## Remius

Dana381 said:


> Angry or scared?


Can be both.  Sometimes being scared helps channel the anger.


----------



## Dana381

KevinB said:


> Leadership
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498224921205481478



There has been a lot off good leadership demonstrated in Ukraine. Mayor's joining the resistance force, the president staying to fight. Never ask/send you subordinates anywhere you are unwilling to go yourself!


----------



## Remius

Zelensky is likely frustrating the hell out of Putin who probably thought he had him figured out.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Remius said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498289020757061632


Honk honk, Russia


----------



## KevinB

Caveat that it's probably a little inflated - but...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498259137569902598


----------



## Good2Golf

Czech_pivo said:


> Anyone else notice that Germany's announcement over the weekend that they are stepping up military spending and are now publicly committing to honour the 2% pledge is getting ZERO coverage here in Canada?  Nothing mentioned by any of the mainstream media, no similar calls for Canada to finally start honouring its previously announced commitment as well.  And people say that the Canadian media is not in the pockets of a certain political party - stuff like this certainly doesn't help.


Canada had to stop and tie its shoelace…it’ll be back up shortly………


----------



## GK .Dundas

Two things as I have noted elsewhere for unless you have  an Ukrainian background  the current war might as well be happening on another planet. As KevinB  put it, we're at the Mall not the Wall..
And my second point  that Remius.raised about about Russians complaining about.protests and the safety of their diplomats. 
I would not be too surprised if someone from our diplomatic staff over there got himself a semi official beat down with officially profound apologies of course.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> Since when has it been as germany goes as goes Canada?


It doesn't of course - but I'd like to think that it just got a bit harder for Canada to continue to shirk a commitment that it has publically made in the past on a go forward basis.


----------



## Good2Golf

Czech_pivo said:


> It doesn't of course - but I'd like to think that it just got a bit harder for Canada to continue to shirk a commitment that it has publically made in the past on a go forward basis.


Never underestimate Canada’s ability to let others pay for the bill…


----------



## Czech_pivo

I see that Peter MacKay looks to be keeping a foot in the door in deciding to run for the leadership of the Connie's in the near future.

Peter MacKay: This was never just Ukraine's fight — Canada is vulnerable to Russia in the North​








						Peter MacKay: This was never just Ukraine's fight — Canada is vulnerable to Russia in the North
					

This is Ukraine's darkest hour, let us rise to their aid in true historic fashion




					nationalpost.com


----------



## MilEME09

So a few images of Russian mobile ICBM launchers have started circulation around the net. Given the high alert status it makes sense these would be mobile right now.


----------



## Czech_pivo

I only know Bill Ackman from his running of Pershing Sq Capital and have no idea of his political leanings but he's just come out saying that the US needs to go into Ukraine and defend Ukraine.  

When the big money guys are openly saying, 'we don't care about the total market uncertainty that this will bring, that it might just throw the US into a recession and the markets might crash' , it should be taken seriously.

Bill Ackman says it’s time for U.S. troops to defend Ukraine and set a ‘real red line’​
“I hope Russia stops this onslaught, but I don’t see how Putin saves face. We need to be prepared for what comes next which means we need to start thinking about intervening military,” Ackman said in the Twitter thread.
“We can’t sit back and allow hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians and perhaps millions to die. I don’t want to live in that world and you don’t either. @POTUS, it is in your hands. You can fix the errors of the past and protect our future. With all due respect Mr. President, the time is now,” Ackman said.









						Bill Ackman says U.S. military intervention may be needed as Russia-Ukraine conflict unfolds
					

Investor Bill Ackman said Monday it's time for the U.S. to consider military intervention in defense of Ukraine.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## KevinB

Further to my point about knowing the Naughty List.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498293462898294784 I think this will have a major effect on how many folks look at the UNGA vote today.

Other than Belarus, nearly everyone else who previously supported Putin has stepped back.

  Brazil's #2 went so far as to call for force to eject Russia from the Ukraine 
  Cuba has rebuked Russia
  China has instituted some sanctions.
  Argentina has called on Russia to end the action in the Ukraine (and Fernandez apparently was too soft as he's taking it to the head domestically now from that).
 Even Venezuela who had two weeks ago pledged a new and powerful alliance with Russia is now calling for and end to Russian hostilities and a return to diplomacy.


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> Further to my point about knowing the Naughty List.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498293462898294784 I think this will have a major effect on how many folks look at the UNGA vote today.
> 
> Other than Belarus, nearly everyone else who previously supported Putin has stepped back.
> 
> Brazil's #2 went so far as to call for force to eject Russia from the Ukraine
> Cuba has rebuked Russia
> China has instituted some sanctions.
> Argentina has called on Russia to end the action in the Ukraine (and Fernandez apparently was too soft as he's taking it to the head domestically now from that).
> Even Venezuela who had two weeks ago pledged a new and powerful alliance with Russia is now calling for and end to Russian hostilities and a return to diplomacy.


If they get a vote in the GA for action with a 2/3 majority, Russia can't veto it in the SC.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Further to my point about knowing the Naughty List.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498293462898294784 I think this will have a major effect on how many folks look at the UNGA vote today.
> 
> Other than Belarus, nearly everyone else who previously supported Putin has stepped back.
> 
> Brazil's #2 went so far as to call for force to eject Russia from the Ukraine
> Cuba has rebuked Russia
> China has instituted some sanctions.
> Argentina has called on Russia to end the action in the Ukraine (and Fernandez apparently was too soft as he's taking it to the head domestically now from that).
> Even Venezuela who had two weeks ago pledged a new and powerful alliance with Russia is now calling for and end to Russian hostilities and a return to diplomacy.


Pakistan - Pakistan will stand by them.


----------



## Quirky

Czech_pivo said:


> Anyone else notice that Germany's announcement over the weekend that they are stepping up military spending and are now publicly committing to honour the 2% pledge is getting ZERO coverage here in Canada?  Nothing mentioned by any of the mainstream media, no similar calls for Canada to finally start honouring its previously announced commitment as well.  And people say that the Canadian media is not in the pockets of a certain political party - stuff like this certainly doesn't help.


I'd like the government to set out concrete priorities and a mission for the CAF. We either stay put and defend the homeland or be able to meaningfully contribute to NATO with planes and boats. Time to have a serious look at the purpose of our Armed Forces.


----------



## SeaKingTacco

Czech_pivo said:


> Pakistan - Pakistan will stand by them.


Because Pakistan never misses a chance to miss a chance?

You know you’ve screwed up when even Venezuela calls you out…


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Pakistan - Pakistan will stand by them.


I think Pakistan can do the math.
  Angering NATO that already knows it put Pakistani SF and ISI into Afghanistan to fight when Western Troops where still on the ground is just asking for that scab to come off.

When Russia is falling, I think the Pakistani's will sit and watch, China is a better partner for them at this time.


----------



## tomydoom

GK .Dundas said:


> Two things as I have noted elsewhere for unless you have  an Ukrainian background  the current war might as well be happening on another planet. As KevinB  put it, we're at the Mall not the Wall..
> And my second point  that Remius.raised about about Russians complaining about.protests and the safety of their diplomats.
> I would not be too surprised if someone from our diplomatic staff over there got himself a semi official beat down with officially profound apologies of course.


I currently live in Ireland and the news here is entirely wall to wall Ukraine, is it not so on Canadian TV?  Though, admittedly I had to explain to my mom and sisters, why London Ontario, KW and Kingston (where they live) may be strategic targets for the Russians, so I guess Canadians have no clue and think this cannot impact them.  I do not have a Ukrainian background, but I have a friend from militia artillery days, who has retired to Ukraine, so I may have been following this closely.  He was, thankfully out of country at the time, but  his wife was in Kyiv. Luckily she was able to get to Poland, and I was able to arrange a place to stay for her, through some work connections.  

To your second point, Putin is a child...  FFS, threatening other countries over hurt feelings?

Sorry if the above is a bit disjointed.


----------



## FM07

It seems like RUS is fighting mainly during the day, no NVG for the average grunt it would appear. Although it is early and I suspect that'll be different for units coming in later on.


----------



## NavyShooter

In these times, we must do our best to find the humour in some things...it helps keep us sane.

I can just see Saint Javelina yelling "YEEEETTTTT!" as she launches.


----------



## tomydoom

NavyShooter said:


> In these times, we must do our best to find the humour in some things...it helps keep us sane.
> 
> I can just see Saint Javelina yelling "YEEEETTTTT!" as she launches.


I like em, gave me a laugh that I needed.


----------



## RaceAddict

"Our army is fighting in such a way that NATO should apply for entry into Ukraine."









						Former Miss Grande Ukraine, Anastasia Lenna, joins fight against Russian invasion; photo shows her holding firearm
					

Anastasia Lenna, former Miss Grande Ukraine, has joined the fight against Russian invasion




					www.timesnownews.com
				




Strange times.

A more credible contribution:









						Brewery in Ukraine switches from making beer to Molotov cocktails amid Russian invasion
					

A brewery in Ukraine is producing Molotov Cocktails instead of beer to fight Russian invaders




					www.timesnownews.com


----------



## Rifleman62

Trudeau lives in his own world. If Saudi Arabia is supporting Russia for their own interests, then Canada should stop buying oil from that country. But we won't. Too bad Quebec runs Canada- no pipeline redirection for Western Canada "dirty" oil.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

I am surprised that Turkey is not taking advantage of this to push in Syria, there is no way for Russia to reinforce them currently.


----------



## YZT580

Rifleman62 said:


> Trudeau lives in his own world. If Saudi Arabia is supporting Russia for their own interests, then Canada should stop buying oil from that country. But we won't. Too bad Quebec runs Canada- no pipeline redirection for Western Canada "dirty" oil.


It is called leadership.  By definition, a leader is a person who leads.  Trudeau is a follower.  For all his bombastic rhetoric he simply tells people what he thinks they want to hear so as to curry favour (and votes).  Thus we are always one or two steps behind as action is not possible until we determine the direction in which the herd is running.


----------



## TacticalTea

Happening now:

UNGA 11th Emergency Special Session

The Ukrainian Ambassador just spoke.

Adding: Canada's probable next PM, Poilievre, speaks on the O&G issue wrt UKR/RUS

Paraphrasing: Oil money cannot finance Russia's war machine anymore.
From me: It must finance our own.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498317142655225858
Better than that.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498200368961961985


----------



## The Bread Guy

Lookit how well RUS state media says the separatist rebels are doing ...








						DPR forces completing encircling Mariupol — Russian defense ministry
					

On February 24, the Russian president said that in response to a request by the heads of the Donbass republics he had made a decision to carry out a special military operation




					tass.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498317142655225858
> Better than that.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498200368961961985


Have to ask the question, where is the Russian infantry to support their tanks?


----------



## TacticalTea

Czech_pivo said:


> Have to ask the question, where is the Russian infantry to support their tanks?


Why? _puts nose through circle made by thumb and index finger_

But, here's some analysis of it:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498042673667706884


----------



## Kat Stevens

Czech_pivo said:


> Have to ask the question, where is the Russian infantry to support their tanks?


The guy with the map was holding it upside down.


----------



## The Bread Guy

What Germany's ponying up








						Ukraine to receive Panzerfaust 3 anti-tank weapons
					

Ukraine is expected to receive Panzerfaust 3 anti-tank weapons from the Netherlands, according to Armyrecognition.com. On February 26, Armyrecognition.com reported that Germany has authorized the Netherlands to supply 400 Panzerfaust 3 rocket-propelled grenade launchers to Ukraine. The...




					defence-blog.com


----------



## FM07

Well I did see a picture of a truck with a  "Z" painted the wrong side up, scrawled out, and a new Z put right beside it. You had one job.


----------



## KevinB

Russian getting shit on by everyone who’s talked so far at the UNGA.

The Danish rep (speaking for the Baltic and Scandinavian countries) seems to have been the most aggressive so far. 
  But the Brit’s are talking now, will be interesting how they push.
   Edit: Lame Brits didn’t push further.


----------



## KevinB

Oh Georgia taking the podium now. 
   Shitting on Russia !!!
 They have some skin in the game too. 
 They are pushing further than anyone else too.


----------



## Kat Stevens

KevinB said:


> Oh Georgia taking the podium now.
> Shitting on Russia !!!


You've got to almost feel bad for any Russian delegate that has to sit in there and try to defend their Loonatic in Charge and his decisions. I think I'd quit, ask for asylum, and get a job at a shawarma joint, more job satisfaction.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Russian getting shit on by everyone who’s talked so far at the UNGA.
> 
> The Danish rep (speaking for the Baltic and Scandinavian countries) seems to have been the most aggressive so far.
> But the Brit’s are talking now, will be interesting how they push.
> Edit: Lame Brits didn’t push further.


Poland is about to speak now


----------



## KevinB

Poland not pulling any punches.


----------



## TacticalTea

Kat Stevens said:


> You've got to almost feel bad for any Russian delegate that has to sit in there and try to defend their Loonatic in Charge and his decisions. I think I'd quit, ask for asylum, and get a job at a shawarma joint, more job satisfaction.




Just half a mile away! Shouldn't affect his commute too much.

Edit: The English interpreter seems terribly winded. Is she translating from a treadmill or what?


----------



## HiTechComms

KevinB said:


> Poland not pulling any punches.


I am sure the Belarus situation of we are no longer a nuke restricted country will piss them off. Don't think Poland will tolerate if Russians puting nukes there.  Its bad enough they have to be next to Kalingrad. Haven't heard any news from Poland if they shut down the border.  They might just to choke that exclave.
Kalingrad is a strategic hold for the Russians. Friends and family in Poland are frustrated, scared and mad. Border crossings are mad busy estimated 150k are entering Poland. Ukrainian and Polish have a good amount of commonalities so they will easily acclimate.
Glad Poland spends the 2% on defense.  Although if this goes side ways Poland will just end up the battlefield of Europe as always. No one in Poland wants to see that.

Ukraine is gone be this century Poland of partitioning. If the Russians don't completely take over they will neuter Ukraine. Russia needs the Black sea, they will take Donbas regions. Once negotiations start we will at least know the real demands.


----------



## daftandbarmy

This is the best thing I've heard all week... too bad he wasn't successful:

Ukrainian sailor arrested for trying to sink oligarch’s superyacht​*Mechanic on Lady Anastasia, owned by Russian arms exporter, sought revenge for attacks on Kyiv*

A Ukrainian sailor has been arrested in Mallorca and faces charges of attempting to sink a yacht owned by Alexander Mikheev, the CEO of the Russian arms exporter Rosoboronexport and former head of the Russian helicopter federation. The boat is moored in the harbour of Port Adriano.

The unnamed man, who has been employed for the past 10 years as a mechanic on the Lady Anastasia, Mikheev’s 48-metre, £5m yacht, said he felt he had to do something after seeing footage of a Russian rocket attack on a block of flats in Kyiv, his home town. The defendant told the judge that he believed the rocket had been manufactured by Mikheev’s company.

Ukrainian sailor arrested for trying to sink oligarch’s superyacht


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Oh Georgia taking the podium now.
> Shitting on Russia !!!
> They have some skin in the game too ...


Actually, they've lost some skin in the game, truth be told


----------



## Kirkhill

Prairie canuck said:


> FFS there's 2 of them now. Troll factory minions.


Wascally wabbits!


----------



## Czech_pivo

I thought that the Czech rep spoke well.  Just as firm as the Pole.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> I thought that the Czech rep spoke well.  Just as firm as the Pole.


My iMac crashed during it - so I missed the last few minutes


----------



## KevinB

Rather lame NZ speech - spent more time complaining about P5 and the Veto 
Panama - sounded angry - and a pretty good speech 

China speaking now, needs restraint and diplomatic solution.
   However talking about Ukraine should be a bridge between East and West...


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> How far can the Rubble fall before Putin hits the ground...
> 
> More importantly what will he do (or be allowed to do) before that.








						Russian Ruble to Swiss Franc Exchange Rate Chart | Xe
					

RUB to CHF currency chart. XE’s free live currency conversion chart for Russian Ruble to Swiss Franc allows you to pair exchange rate history for up to 10 years.




					www.xe.com
				









						Russian Ruble to Euro Exchange Rate Chart | Xe
					

RUB to EUR currency chart. XE’s free live currency conversion chart for Russian Ruble to Euro allows you to pair exchange rate history for up to 10 years.




					www.xe.com
				









						Russian Ruble to British Pound Exchange Rate Chart | Xe
					

RUB to GBP currency chart. XE’s free live currency conversion chart for Russian Ruble to British Pound allows you to pair exchange rate history for up to 10 years.




					www.xe.com
				









						Russian Ruble to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe
					

RUB to USD currency chart. XE’s free live currency conversion chart for Russian Ruble to US Dollar allows you to pair exchange rate history for up to 10 years.




					www.xe.com
				













						Russian Ruble to Chinese Yuan Renminbi Offshore Exchange Rate Chart | Xe
					

RUB to CNH currency chart. XE’s free live currency conversion chart for Russian Ruble to Chinese Yuan Renminbi Offshore allows you to pair exchange rate history for up to 10 years.




					www.xe.com
				









						Russian Ruble to Chinese Yuan Renminbi Exchange Rate Chart | Xe
					

RUB to CNY currency chart. XE’s free live currency conversion chart for Russian Ruble to Chinese Yuan Renminbi allows you to pair exchange rate history for up to 10 years.




					www.xe.com
				












						Russian Ruble to Japanese Yen Exchange Rate Chart | Xe
					

RUB to JPY currency chart. XE’s free live currency conversion chart for Russian Ruble to Japanese Yen allows you to pair exchange rate history for up to 10 years.




					www.xe.com
				









						Russian Ruble to Indian Rupee Exchange Rate Chart | Xe
					

RUB to INR currency chart. XE’s free live currency conversion chart for Russian Ruble to Indian Rupee allows you to pair exchange rate history for up to 10 years.




					www.xe.com
				











						Russian Ruble to Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe
					

RUB to CAD currency chart. XE’s free live currency conversion chart for Russian Ruble to Canadian Dollar allows you to pair exchange rate history for up to 10 years.




					www.xe.com
				




Vlad No Friends.


----------



## KevinB

Oh China, supports the EU, NATO, and UN initiatives for lasting peace in the European continent, and reaffirms all sovereign territory and rights of countries to determine their own destiny


----------



## Kirkhill

ueo said:


> Into the "every weapon" spectrum falls chem and bio. Yes I realize these  are proscribed but that hasn't been much of a deterrant to various tinpot dickheads. So are we ready to defend against either a well or not so well targetted attack or just continue to have our collective heads up our arses?



Don't forget the "unconventional" weapons available to them.  Vlad's equivalents to Saddam's torching the Kuwaiti oilfields and creating a toxic cloud.

Fighting the HAZMAT battle.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

daftandbarmy said:


> This is the best thing I've heard all week... too bad he wasn't successful:
> 
> Ukrainian sailor arrested for trying to sink oligarch’s superyacht​*Mechanic on Lady Anastasia, owned by Russian arms exporter, sought revenge for attacks on Kyiv*
> 
> A Ukrainian sailor has been arrested in Mallorca and faces charges of attempting to sink a yacht owned by Alexander Mikheev, the CEO of the Russian arms exporter Rosoboronexport and former head of the Russian helicopter federation. The boat is moored in the harbour of Port Adriano.
> 
> The unnamed man, who has been employed for the past 10 years as a mechanic on the Lady Anastasia, Mikheev’s 48-metre, £5m yacht, said he felt he had to do something after seeing footage of a Russian rocket attack on a block of flats in Kyiv, his home town. The defendant told the judge that he believed the rocket had been manufactured by Mikheev’s company.
> 
> Ukrainian sailor arrested for trying to sink oligarch’s superyacht


Release the Privaters Could Ukraine Recruit Privateers?


----------



## Kirkhill

RangerRay said:


> You know things are bad when neutral countries (Sweden, Finland) join NATO, Sweden and Germany send anti-tank missiles to a war zone, and Switzerland participates in EU sanctions.



Neutrality is a relevant thing.









						Joint statement by Defence Ministers of the Joint Expeditionary Force
					

Meeting in the UK, Defence Ministers from the ten Joint Expeditionary Force nations have issued a joint statement on the situation in Ukraine.




					www.government.se


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> You want a honest answer or the answer that would make us collectively feel better?


Fire away, Altair!

We're all friends here. Right?


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> Since when has it been as germany goes as goes Canada?



You are right.

On the other hand Canada, regardless of government, has always been at pains to stay part of the club.  Usually that means, at minimum, subscribing the annual dues.

Germany has had a big hand in suppressing the dues payable, to the benefit and advantage of many Canadian governments.   

With the German shift the cost of membership has just risen.   

There are still Tier 2 memberships available for Iceland and Luxembourg.  

Perhaps that is what this government considers a useful level of participation for Canada.


----------



## Kirkhill

tomydoom said:


> I watched the announcement on BBC, my jaw hit the floor.  The Germans are angry.


Or, simply, rationally motivated?


----------



## HiTechComms

Kirkhill said:


> You are right.
> 
> On the other hand Canada, regardless of government, has always been at pains to stay part of the club.  Usually that means, at minimum, subscribing the annual dues.
> 
> Germany has had a big hand in suppressing the dues payable, to the benefit and advantage of many Canadian governments.
> 
> With the German shift the cost of membership has just risen.
> 
> There are still Tier 2 memberships available for Iceland and Luxembourg.
> 
> Perhaps that is what this government considers a useful level of participation for Canada.


And IF only.

Our Government built a Pipeline out east and Stop importing Russian Oil.

Stop listening to a screeching 13 year old girl about energy needs. 

all IFs and no action. I will not hold my breath.


----------



## tomydoom

Kirkhill said:


> Or, simply, rationally motivated?


I am sure that is part of it, but the standing ovation in the Bundestag and the expressions on the faces of the members looked like anger to me.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Looks to me that the Brazilian rep just got home from the Mardi Gras.....


----------



## Czech_pivo

Bob Rae is about to speak


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> Caveat that it's probably a little inflated - but...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498259137569902598


But, conversely, probably somewhat dated.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Just a quick tidbit from today's announcement from Ottawa ...


> ... The Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs, and the Honourable Anita Anand, Minister of National Defence, announced that Canada will be sending an additional $25M in military aid to support Ukraine in its efforts to retain sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence.
> 
> This aid is in response to Ukraine’s direct request to Canada for further protective equipment, and could include items such as helmets, body armour, gas masks and night vision gear.
> 
> The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) will support the latest donation of aid announced today by providing two C-130J tactical airlift aircraft and a team of 40-50 personnel to contribute to NATO efforts in Europe for a period of at least two weeks, with continued requirement being reassessed. These aircraft will depart Canada in the coming days. The final destination of CAF aircraft will not be disclosed at this time to ensure the safety of our personnel ...


----------



## Kirkhill

GK .Dundas said:


> Two things as I have noted elsewhere for unless you have  an Ukrainian background  the current war might as well be happening on another planet. As KevinB  put it, we're at the Mall not the Wall..
> And my second point  that Remius.raised about about Russians complaining about.protests and the safety of their diplomats.
> I would not be too surprised if someone from our diplomatic staff over there got himself a semi official beat down with officially profound apologies of course.


GK,

I think you may be underestimating the impact.   A lot of western Canadians and Ontarians have Ukraining family and friends.   And it doesn't matter if their ancestors arrived escaping the Czar, the Communists of the Nazis, or which church they go to.


----------



## Good2Golf

Czech_pivo said:


> Bob Rae is about to speak


.....and still speaking...................and still speaking...................and still speaking...................and still speaking...................and still speaking...................and still speaking..............

(solid point about ensuring Belarus held to account too, but please...)


----------



## dapaterson

Who had "TikTok how to Videos" for Ukranians wanting to take Russian vehicles out for a joy ride on their bingo card?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498342546283679753


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:


> ... A lot of western Canadians and Ontarians have Ukraining family and friends.   And it doesn't matter if their ancestors arrived escaping the Czar, the Communists of the Nazis, or which church they go to.


And if the Yugo unpleasantness is anything to go by, the second-generation folks can be even more rabid about the politics in the old country than even some of the old country residents.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> I think Pakistan can do the math.
> Angering NATO that already knows it put Pakistani SF and ISI into Afghanistan to fight when Western Troops where still on the ground is just asking for that scab to come off.
> 
> When Russia is falling, I think the Pakistani's will sit and watch, China is a better partner for them at this time.












						Great Game - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				





Does China want to sit in and pick up Russia's hand?   Does it want to play the hand the same way?

And there is a new player at the table.  The Persians have got competition again.  The Stans have an new champion in Turkey.


----------



## Haggis

GK .Dundas said:


> I would not be too surprised if someone from our diplomatic staff over there got himself *a semi official beat down *with officially profound apologies of course.


Like  this?


----------



## Czech_pivo

dapaterson said:


> Who had "TikTok how to Videos" for Ukranians wanting to take Russian vehicles out for a joy ride on their bingo card?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498342546283679753


Man, I'd be worried of a Ukrainian drone ruining my day (and life).


----------



## The Bread Guy

Vice-speaker of UKR Parliament calling for what sounds like a no-fly zone


> ... There are four power plants with 15 energy units in Ukraine and letting Russia attack a country like that is a collapse of the entire international security system!
> For exactly this reason I am calling on you to do everything you can at the level of your local parliaments in order to close the sky over Ukraine and introduce a no-fly zone. This is the only way to save hundreds of thousands of lives, or equally by silent idleness become accomplices in war crimes against Ukrainian people ...


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498278869756956676
Coming back via V Corps


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> Lookit how well RUS state media says the separatist rebels are doing ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> DPR forces completing encircling Mariupol — Russian defense ministry
> 
> 
> On February 24, the Russian president said that in response to a request by the heads of the Donbass republics he had made a decision to carry out a special military operation
> 
> 
> 
> 
> tass.com



Any other articles from TASS or Pravda making reference to the Northern Operations in the Kyiv - Kharkiv area?


----------



## Kirkhill

Czech_pivo said:


> Have to ask the question, where is the Russian infantry to support their tanks?


Brewing up in the back of their BTRs.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498360815245615104
So what's that $5USD now?


----------



## Kirkhill

FM07 said:


> Well I did see a picture of a truck with a  "Z" painted the wrong side up, scrawled out, and a new Z put right beside it. You had one job.


That's Karl with a K.


----------



## Kirkhill

HiTechComms said:


> I am sure the Belarus situation of we are no longer a nuke restricted country will piss them off. Don't think Poland will tolerate if Russians puting nukes there.  Its bad enough they have to be next to Kalingrad. Haven't heard any news from Poland if they shut down the border.  They might just to choke that exclave.
> Kalingrad is a strategic hold for the Russians. Friends and family in Poland are frustrated, scared and mad. Border crossings are mad busy estimated 150k are entering Poland. Ukrainian and Polish have a good amount of commonalities so they will easily acclimate.
> Glad Poland spends the 2% on defense.  Although if this goes side ways Poland will just end up the battlefield of Europe as always. No one in Poland wants to see that.
> 
> Ukraine is gone be this century Poland of partitioning. If the Russians don't completely take over they will neuter Ukraine. Russia needs the Black sea, they will take Donbas regions. Once negotiations start we will at least know the real demands.



Noteworthy commentary.  Thank you.


----------



## McG

HiTechComms said:


> And IF only.
> 
> Our Government built a Pipeline out east and Stop importing Russian Oil.
> 
> Stop listening to a screeching 13 year old girl about energy needs.
> 
> all IFs and no action. I will not hold my breath.


From statistics that I have seen, Canada hasn't imported quantities of oil from Russia since 2019.  If we want to officially ban the import as a symbolic or feel-good measure, then I have no objection. But we should not fool ourselves into thinking that is anything substantive.

The reason to build a pipeline to the east coast is not to remove any need for Russian oil; the pipeline is to facilitate export. Maybe exported Canadian oil could (after a few years of pipeline construction) offset some European need for Russian oil. But I don't see how anyone is going to get a pipe across the St Lawrence over the objections of vote rich Montreal.  If you really want a pipe, maybe stay north of the river and terminate at Sept-Îles or Port-Cartier.


----------



## Remius

Regular caveats of course on veracity.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498332002449248258


----------



## Haggis

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498360815245615104
> So what's that $5USD now?


RU 5M = $63,200 CAD today.  I suspect this is a time limited offer with a daily declining value.


----------



## Kirkhill

HiTechComms said:


> And IF only.
> 
> Our Government built a Pipeline out east and Stop importing Russian Oil.
> 
> Stop listening to a screeching 13 year old girl about energy needs.
> 
> all IFs and no action. I will not hold my breath.



A point of agreement HTC.


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> Just a quick tidbit from today's announcement from Ottawa ...



Well there go the rest of our military stocks.


----------



## KevinB

Remius said:


> Regular caveats of course on veracity.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498332002449248258


His own personal twitter feed posted it yesterday


----------



## TacticalTea

McG said:


> From statistics that I have seen, Canada hasn't imported quantities of oil from Russia since 2019.  If we want to officially ban the import as a symbolic or feel-good measure, then I have no objection. But we should not fool ourselves into thinking that is anything substantive.
> 
> The reason to build a pipeline to the east coast is not to remove any need for Russian oil; the pipeline is to facilitate export. Maybe exported Canadian oil could (after a few years of pipeline construction) offset some European need for Russian oil. But I don't see how anyone is going to get a pipe across the St Lawrence over the objections of vote rich Montreal.  If you really want a pipe, maybe stay north of the river and terminate at Sept-Îles or Port-Cartier.


There was a project for a terminal at the Saguenay river.

It was denied last month by the Liberals.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Good2Golf said:


> .....and still speaking...................and still speaking...................and still speaking...................and still speaking...................and still speaking...................and still speaking..............
> 
> (solid point about ensuring Belarus held to account too, but please...)



Wait, I'll get my pillow.

I think he's done a great job at turning a disastrous experience (for Ontario) as Premier into an average result as an international diplomat.

At least it shows there's some hope for every mediocre Canadian politican, at whatever level they choose to mess up


----------



## KevinB

Everyone is joining the party apparently. 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498366362540032001


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498360815245615104
> So what's that $5USD now?


 Alot of these conscripts would be happier with a house, 10 acres of farmland and wife.  Offer than that instead.  The Rubles will just be stolen from them the moment they are back in Russia.


----------



## Remius

KevinB said:


> Everyone is joining the party apparently.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498366362540032001


Needs a bit more training lol.  Looks like she set herself on fire as well


----------



## KevinB

Remius said:


> Needs a bit more training lol.  Looks like she set herself on fire as well


I'm sure it was the first run for her.
   But they kept fairly calm and made it out.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest from UKR Pres info-machine on the talks:


> Ukrainian and Russian delegations held the first round of negotiations in the area of the Ukraine-Belarus border in order to find common ground for the fastest ceasefire.  The parties discussed in detail a number of key topics on which they have prospects for finding mutually acceptable decisions.  A decision was made to immediately hold additional consultations in the capitals of the states. After that, the second round of negotiations of Ukrainian and Russian parties is to take place in the near future.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498367647125319681

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498367651491495937


----------



## Kirkhill

Remius said:


> Needs a bit more training lol.  Looks like she set herself on fire as well



Top tip.

Don't forget your fire extinguisher.   A woolen blanket would serve.


----------



## dapaterson

Remember, check your scheduled propaganda against reality before publishing.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498025819054264328


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> Top tip.
> 
> Don't forget your fire extinguisher.   A *WET *woolen blanket would serve.



There, FTFY.

It doesn't work out too well when you try to put out a petrol bombed buddy with a DRY woollen blanket


----------



## dimsum

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498367647125319681


I read that as "Ukrainian Parliamentary member" and wondered which portfolio they had


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> There, FTFY.
> 
> It doesn't work out too well when you try to put out a petrol bombed buddy with a DRY woollen blanket



Appreciate the expert advice.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Everyone is joining the party apparently.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498366362540032001





Remius said:


> Needs a bit more training lol.  Looks like she set herself on fire as well


Well, we all remember our first time and she's got the singed hair on her right to help as a reminder. 

Lol, she's now an experienced anti-armour grenadier though.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> Appreciate the expert advice.



My pleasure.

Next podcast: How to arrest crowds of militarized children in such a way that their parents will punish them more severely than you ever could


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> And if the Yugo unpleasantness is anything to go by, the second-generation folks can be even more rabid about the politics in the old country than even some of the old country residents.




Israeli Charter Tours?


----------



## Kirkhill

tomydoom said:


> I am sure that is part of it, but the standing ovation in the Bundestag and the expressions on the faces of the members looked like anger to me.


Oh dear.  

Somebody just hit the On button again.


----------



## HiTechComms

McG said:


> From statistics that I have seen, Canada hasn't imported quantities of oil from Russia since 2019.  If we want to officially ban the import as a symbolic or feel-good measure, then I have no objection. But we should not fool ourselves into thinking that is anything substantive.
> 
> The reason to build a pipeline to the east coast is not to remove any need for Russian oil; the pipeline is to facilitate export. Maybe exported Canadian oil could (after a few years of pipeline construction) offset some European need for Russian oil. But I don't see how anyone is going to get a pipe across the St Lawrence over the objections of vote rich Montreal.  If you really want a pipe, maybe stay north of the river and terminate at Sept-Îles or Port-Cartier.


Not quite true. Well there are true bits in that but that is not the whole story. Average Canadian doesn't really have an idea what is the real purpose.
The pipeline from Sarnia already exists to the coast.

The primary goal was to by pass USA. Most of the Western crude goes to Sarnia for refinement. The reason for refinement in Ontario is because most of the crude pipeline actually goes through the USA. Basically it goes around Manitoba and Ontario through the USA. ( over simplified)

Because of the agreements between Canada and USA no finished product can flow(pipeline) between the two countries. It is illegal. There were incidents where by mistake there was finished product and Canada was forced to send in tanker trucks to ship it back to Canada.

Most people also don't know that a pipeline can carry different products (Gas, Diesel, Jet Fuel, Crude, etc) They use really nifty stuff such as turbulence and fluid dynamics to separate the products, its vert accurate. Really insane math behind it.
This is why BC doesn't have a refining capacity anymore everything is refined in Alberta. Its cheaper and simpler, this is also why Trans-mountain wasn't torpedoed but became a crap government project.

We could ship finished product to Ontario and Quebec and rest of Canada. The big lobbyist that are against it are Irvings, Quebec and Largely Americans.
They buy our cheap crude and refine it and sell theirs, (well not anymore after this administration) Lots of money wouldn't end up in their pockets.

Oh and effin Ethanol garbage. Pretend to be environmentally friendly but its actually worse for it. Corn growing subsidy.

It is quite infuriating how Canada goes on cutting its nose off in spite of its face. I have some other stories as well that would make you shake your head in WTF.


----------



## Kirkhill

They've closed Burnaby today, then?









						Canadian Refineries | Oil Sands Magazine
					






					www.oilsandsmagazine.com


----------



## Spencer100

This meme, from my 13 year old nerd self.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

BC has two refineries, 56,000BPD in the Lower mainland and I believe 26,000BPD in PG. Trans-mountain is still moving ahead. the currently pipeline is old and provides 40% of the feedstock to the refinery in Port Moody. The rest comes from the US, oddly enough they divert feedstock to the US from that pipeline. Hopefully with the completion of the pipeline, there will 100% supply of feedstock. Refined product is moved both ways across the border. 
Coastal gas link will feed LNGCanada and allow for Western Canadian LNG to be directly exported from Canada, instead of being shipped to the US for export. Very likley with the success of LNGCanada, you see one of the other projects on the back burner get revived.


----------



## HiTechComms

Kirkhill said:


> They've closed Burnaby today, then?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canadian Refineries | Oil Sands Magazine
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.oilsandsmagazine.com


As I said refining capacity I didn't say they have no refining capacity at all.  They still need some but if they had to refine all the product in BC they would need at least 2 to 3 Refineries. There were rumors a while back to shut the one down in Burnaby or downsize it. May actually happen once Trans-Mountain disaster is over. Residents of Vancouver don't like it as their image of "green" Optics and Politics. Again I am making a vast oversimplification.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Colin Parkinson said:


> BC has two refineries, 56,000BPD in the Lower mainland and I believe 26,000BPD in PG. Trans-mountain is still moving ahead. the currently pipeline is old and provides 40% of the feedstock to the refinery in Port Moody. The rest comes from the US, oddly enough they divert feedstock to the US from that pipeline. Hopefully with the completion of the pipeline, there will 100% supply of feedstock. Refined product is moved both ways across the border.
> Coastal gas link will feed LNGCanada and allow for Western Canadian LNG to be directly exported from Canada, instead of being shipped to the US for export. Very likley with the success of LNGCanada, you see one of the other projects on the back burner get revived.




And BC is officially a LNG Loser, sadly:

BC Looks like an LNG Loser: Report​Prospects have been battered by global competition, volatility, delays and cost overruns.​Zoë Yunker is a Vancouver-based journalist writing about energy and environment politics. She works with The Tyee as a Tula Foundation Immersive Journalism fellow.

Once touted as an economic powerhouse, the liquified natural gas industry is on the rocks, according to a worldwide survey of LNG terminals from the Global Energy Monitor, a non-profit research group responding to climate change.

Applications are now open for the six-month Tula Immersion Journalism Fellowship at The Tyee.

LNG terminals are among the largest capital projects attempted in modern industry, costing up to $30 billion per project. Gas is extracted from underground deposits, piped to LNG plants where it is compressed by cooling to liquid form, loaded onto ships and transported to other markets.

“The sheer size of the projects has exposed investors to catastrophic losses,” said Lydia Plante, lead author of the just-released report.
The survey found that planned projects representing 38 per cent of global export capacity are facing delayed final investment decisions and other serious holdups. Cost overruns are common.

Canadian LNG is particularly bad off, Ted Nace, executive director of the Global Energy Monitor, told The Tyee. “The problem with the Canadian LNG expansion is that it’s especially vulnerable because Canada is a high-cost producer on a world basis.”

That’s because Canada plans to produce its LNG from fracking — an energy and capital-intensive process to access gas hidden deep inside shale rock.

Canadian LNG comes up short on the global market, said Nace, particularly when it competes against countries where conventional gas sources make LNG cheaper to produce.

And global competition is only getting fiercer. Qatar and Russia, for example, have vast supplies of cheap natural gas. “These super low cost producers,” said Nace, “are not giving up market share without a fight.”










						BC Looks like an LNG Loser: Report | The Tyee
					

Prospects have been battered by global competition, volatility, delays and cost overruns.




					thetyee.ca


----------



## HiTechComms

Colin Parkinson said:


> BC has two refineries, 56,000BPD in the Lower mainland and I believe 26,000BPD in PG. Trans-mountain is still moving ahead. the currently pipeline is old and provides 40% of the feedstock to the refinery in Port Moody. The rest comes from the US, oddly enough they divert feedstock to the US from that pipeline. Hopefully with the completion of the pipeline, there will 100% supply of feedstock. Refined product is moved both ways across the border.
> Coastal gas link will feed LNGCanada and allow for Western Canadian LNG to be directly exported from Canada, instead of being shipped to the US for export. Very likley with the success of LNGCanada, you see one of the other projects on the back burner get revived.


Not with the NDP in Charge it will not.  Also Trans-mountain is not the only pipeline from Alberta.  Enbridge has its own pipelines which most people don't know about. https://www.capp.ca/wp-content/uplo...ne-and-Refinery-Map-LARGE-fo-linking-only.jpg

LNG is also not considered crude, they have their own legislation.
Quite different tech. Canada had a Duopoly on this for the longest time. Enbridge = OIL, TC = GAS.  Both have been competing against each other but on the most part its been 75% -25% split of product management and vice versa.

I will not hold my breath in regards to any energy projects after this fed government.


----------



## Good2Golf

How can Canadian LNG come up short on the world market when there is NO Canadian LNG on the world market?

It’s:  Can NG at a discount -> US NG-to-LNG + markup and big profit in US -> global LNG sales at yet even more markup…


----------



## tomydoom

Kirkhill said:


> Oh dear.
> 
> Somebody just hit the On button again.


At least they're on our side this time.


----------



## Spencer100

One thought I am having on this, the Ukrainian Government and forces are most likely getting the best ISR information that a defending country has ever received on a minute by minute basis. I bet they know more about the Russian force than the generals in Moscow.  Between the airborne, space and other assets deplored by everyone other than Russia the data stream must be huge.  Has a leader in war ever had some much? They are receiving billions of dollars worth of data.  I would think it is less the fog of war and more the data overload.  The most pain full part is knowing but not being able to hit back because the lack of firepower.


----------



## Good2Golf

Spencer100 said:


> One thought I am having on this, the Ukrainian Government and forces are most likely getting the best ISR information that a defending country has ever received on a minute by minute basis. I bet they know more about the Russian force than the generals in Moscow.  Between the airborne, space and other assets deplored by everyone other than Russia the data stream must be huge.  Has a leader in war ever had some much? They are receiving billions of dollars worth of data.  I would think it is less the fog of war and more the data overload.  The most pain full part is knowing but not being able to hit back because the lack of firepower.


User JSTARS: ♥️ your comment.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

HiTechComms said:


> Not with the NDP in Charge it will not.  Also Trans-mountain is not the only pipeline from Alberta.  Enbridge has its own pipelines which most people don't know about. https://www.capp.ca/wp-content/uplo...ne-and-Refinery-Map-LARGE-fo-linking-only.jpg
> 
> LNG is also not considered crude, they have their own legislation.
> Quite different tech. Canada had a Duopoly on this for the longest time. Enbridge = OIL, TC = GAS.  Both have been competing against each other but on the most part its been 75% -25% split of product management and vice versa.
> 
> I will not hold my breath in regards to any energy projects after this fed government.


I used to review all the BC pipelines under the NWPA and NEBA 108 & 109


----------



## HiTechComms

Colin Parkinson said:


> I used to review all the BC pipelines under the NWPA and NEBA 108 & 109


Every province has its own legislation and as well as the Feds.  Its a legal nightmare. I am kind a glad I am out cause it was like banging your head against the wall. It did pay well, golden handcuffs. It was nice to have nice fat budgets for a while.


----------



## ueo

Kirkhill said:


> Don't forget the "unconventional" weapons available to them.  Vlad's equivalents to Saddam's torching the Kuwaiti oilfields and creating a toxic cloud.
> 
> Fighting the HAZMAT battle.


That  as well!


----------



## rmc_wannabe

dapaterson said:


> Remember, check your scheduled propaganda against reality before publishing.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498025819054264328


Talk about situating the estimate...


----------



## brihard

Russian BMP parked in Bucha announcing over loudspeakers to stay calm. Ukrainian civil defense member calmly RPGs it.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498368499776901127


----------



## Remius

brihard said:


> Russian BMP parked in Bucha announcing over loudspeakers to stay calm. Ukrainian civil defense member calmly RPGs it.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498368499776901127


Psy Ops fail…


----------



## TacticalTea

Remius said:


> Psy Ops fail…


This is the funniest shit I've seen.

Someone used this meme to summarize the incident:



In other news:

We are still seeing reports coming up of Turkey closing the Bosphorus, but I have yet to see a direct source, so I continue to assume journalists are just not doing their job, as usual. Will track closely.

China at the UN: Boring diversions about NATO vs RUS interests, but also interesting comments about sovereignty and territorial integrity, in line with their interests in Taiwan.


----------



## Spencer100

Slovakian scrap metal deals are on the raise 

Reported last night that a few shipments of aluminum, kerosene, rubber, glass and electronics have be purchased by some guys in sunglasses and jumpsuits with special easy credit financing. Also reported the piles of materials are pointy at one end and may or may not have flown away.


----------



## Rifleman62

John Kerry blasted for saying he hopes Putin will focus on climate change as Russia attacks Ukraine
					

Kerry, President Joe Biden’s climate czar, made the comment during an interview Monday on BBC Arabic, Fox News reported, citing the Middle East Media Research Institute.




					nypost.com
				



John Kerry blasted for saying he hopes Putin will focus on climate change as Russia attacks Ukraine - 25 Feb 22​
Extract: Former Secretary of State John Kerry has been ripped for expressing hope that Vladimir Putin would “stay on track” in the fight against climate change in an interview that aired on the day the Russian strongman unleashed the invasion of Ukraine._ Kerry, President Biden’s climate czar, _made the comment during an interview Monday on BBC Arabic, Fox News reported, citing the Middle East Media Research Institute.

The interview aired Wednesday, the day Russian forces attacked Ukraine across several fronts. “I’m concerned about Ukraine because of the people of Ukraine and because of the principles that are at risk, in terms of international law and trying to change boundaries of international law by force,” Kerry reportedly said. “I thought we lived in a world that had said no to that kind of activity. And I hope diplomacy will win.

“But it could have a profound negative impact on the climate, obviously. You have a war and obviously you’re going to have massive emissions consequences to the war,” he said.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Rifleman62 said:


> John Kerry blasted for saying he hopes Putin will focus on climate change as Russia attacks Ukraine
> 
> 
> Kerry, President Joe Biden’s climate czar, made the comment during an interview Monday on BBC Arabic, Fox News reported, citing the Middle East Media Research Institute.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nypost.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> John Kerry blasted for saying he hopes Putin will focus on climate change as Russia attacks Ukraine - 25 Feb 22​
> Extract: Former Secretary of State John Kerry has been ripped for expressing hope that Vladimir Putin would “stay on track” in the fight against climate change in an interview that aired on the day the Russian strongman unleashed the invasion of Ukraine._ Kerry, President Biden’s climate czar, _made the comment during an interview Monday on BBC Arabic, Fox News reported, citing the Middle East Media Research Institute.
> 
> The interview aired Wednesday, the day Russian forces attacked Ukraine across several fronts. “I’m concerned about Ukraine because of the people of Ukraine and because of the principles that are at risk, in terms of international law and trying to change boundaries of international law by force,” Kerry reportedly said. “I thought we lived in a world that had said no to that kind of activity. And I hope diplomacy will win.
> 
> “But it could have a profound negative impact on the climate, obviously. You have a war and obviously you’re going to have massive emissions consequences to the war,” he said.


----------



## Spencer100

Rifleman62 said:


> John Kerry blasted for saying he hopes Putin will focus on climate change as Russia attacks Ukraine
> 
> 
> Kerry, President Joe Biden’s climate czar, made the comment during an interview Monday on BBC Arabic, Fox News reported, citing the Middle East Media Research Institute.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nypost.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> John Kerry blasted for saying he hopes Putin will focus on climate change as Russia attacks Ukraine - 25 Feb 22​
> Extract: Former Secretary of State John Kerry has been ripped for expressing hope that Vladimir Putin would “stay on track” in the fight against climate change in an interview that aired on the day the Russian strongman unleashed the invasion of Ukraine._ Kerry, President Biden’s climate czar, _made the comment during an interview Monday on BBC Arabic, Fox News reported, citing the Middle East Media Research Institute.
> 
> The interview aired Wednesday, the day Russian forces attacked Ukraine across several fronts. “I’m concerned about Ukraine because of the people of Ukraine and because of the principles that are at risk, in terms of international law and trying to change boundaries of international law by force,” Kerry reportedly said. “I thought we lived in a world that had said no to that kind of activity. And I hope diplomacy will win.
> 
> “But it could have a profound negative impact on the climate, obviously. You have a war and obviously you’re going to have massive emissions consequences to the war,” he said.


I am sure this was the first thought of some others in Ottawa too.   

Also some people will be very upset if people start talking pipelines and energy independence.  That is not supposed to be on the agenda.


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> And BC is officially a LNG Loser, sadly:
> 
> BC Looks like an LNG Loser: Report​Prospects have been battered by global competition, volatility, delays and cost overruns.​Zoë Yunker is a Vancouver-based journalist writing about energy and environment politics. She works with The Tyee as a Tula Foundation Immersive Journalism fellow.
> 
> Once touted as an economic powerhouse, the liquified natural gas industry is on the rocks, according to a worldwide survey of LNG terminals from the Global Energy Monitor, a non-profit research group responding to climate change.
> 
> Applications are now open for the six-month Tula Immersion Journalism Fellowship at The Tyee.
> 
> LNG terminals are among the largest capital projects attempted in modern industry, costing up to $30 billion per project. Gas is extracted from underground deposits, piped to LNG plants where it is compressed by cooling to liquid form, loaded onto ships and transported to other markets.
> 
> “The sheer size of the projects has exposed investors to catastrophic losses,” said Lydia Plante, lead author of the just-released report.
> The survey found that planned projects representing 38 per cent of global export capacity are facing delayed final investment decisions and other serious holdups. Cost overruns are common.
> 
> Canadian LNG is particularly bad off, Ted Nace, executive director of the Global Energy Monitor, told The Tyee. “The problem with the Canadian LNG expansion is that it’s especially vulnerable because Canada is a high-cost producer on a world basis.”
> 
> That’s because Canada plans to produce its LNG from fracking — an energy and capital-intensive process to access gas hidden deep inside shale rock.
> 
> Canadian LNG comes up short on the global market, said Nace, particularly when it competes against countries where conventional gas sources make LNG cheaper to produce.
> 
> And global competition is only getting fiercer. Qatar and Russia, for example, have vast supplies of cheap natural gas. “These super low cost producers,” said Nace, “are not giving up market share without a fight.”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> BC Looks like an LNG Loser: Report | The Tyee
> 
> 
> Prospects have been battered by global competition, volatility, delays and cost overruns.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> thetyee.ca




As my father once said - Anything is possible if cash.

You can burn anything.  You can eat dam near anything.

Farmaceuticals - Food - Fodder - Feed - Fertilizer - Fuel 

You can burn diamonds if you want.  You can make green vegetarian food from chemicals if you have enough energy.   You can even make the energy from clean burning manufactured diamonds.

Again anything is possible if cash.

Or you can howk a chunk of coal out the ground and apply a match.  

Capturing the CO2 and using it in your greenhouse to grow tomatoes for your table and duckweed for your cattle is also an option.  One cheaper than than making and burning diamonds.


----------



## HiTechComms

Rifleman62 said:


> John Kerry blasted for saying he hopes Putin will focus on climate change as Russia attacks Ukraine
> 
> 
> Kerry, President Joe Biden’s climate czar, made the comment during an interview Monday on BBC Arabic, Fox News reported, citing the Middle East Media Research Institute.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nypost.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> John Kerry blasted for saying he hopes Putin will focus on climate change as Russia attacks Ukraine - 25 Feb 22​
> Extract: Former Secretary of State John Kerry has been ripped for expressing hope that Vladimir Putin would “stay on track” in the fight against climate change in an interview that aired on the day the Russian strongman unleashed the invasion of Ukraine._ Kerry, President Biden’s climate czar, _made the comment during an interview Monday on BBC Arabic, Fox News reported, citing the Middle East Media Research Institute.
> 
> The interview aired Wednesday, the day Russian forces attacked Ukraine across several fronts. “I’m concerned about Ukraine because of the people of Ukraine and because of the principles that are at risk, in terms of international law and trying to change boundaries of international law by force,” Kerry reportedly said. “I thought we lived in a world that had said no to that kind of activity. And I hope diplomacy will win.
> 
> “But it could have a profound negative impact on the climate, obviously. You have a war and obviously you’re going to have massive emissions consequences to the war,” he said.


Yeah well we take our National Security Energy advice from a Screeching 13 year old girl.  Politicians exist in a universe of their own making.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Another example of their failure at Logistics.

In the resort town of Berdyansk, on the shore of the Azov Sea, residents described the soldiers who captured their town Sunday as exhausted young conscripts.

"Frightened kids, frightened looks. They want to eat," Konstantin Maloletka, who runs a small shop, said by telephone.

The soldiers went into a supermarket and grabbed canned meat, vodka and cigarettes. "They ate right in the store," he said. "It looked like they haven't been fed in recent days.


----------



## HiTechComms

TacticalTea said:


> This is the funniest shit I've seen.
> 
> Someone used this meme to summarize the incident:
> 
> View attachment 69082
> 
> In other news:
> 
> We are still seeing reports coming up of Turkey closing the Bosphorus, but I have yet to see a direct source, so I continue to assume journalists are just not doing their job, as usual. Will track closely.
> 
> China at the UN: Boring diversions about NATO vs RUS interests, but also interesting comments about sovereignty and territorial integrity, in line with their interests in Taiwan.


Follow F.A.T.E

Focus
Authority
Tribe
Emotions

Keys to controlling through propaganda. Sometimes the best course of action is simply to not take a course of action and wait and collect information. Wait till negotiations start.

As for Journalists. You mean pundits and churnalists.

We know our media is corrupt
We've been told Russian media is corrupt by our media
We also know that Russian media is corrupt

I rather like "Trust but Verify"


----------



## TacticalTea

UK ports closed to Russian shipping, EU to follow

Why hasn't this happened in Canada yet? Why are we always dead last? 
We're an oil producing nation, why hasn't RUS O&G been banned already?

Yes there are consequences, but the consequences to abetting wars of aggression - which we do by financing the RUS military by buying their O&G - are far greater.


----------



## Kirkhill

Czech_pivo said:


> Another example of their failure at Logistics.
> 
> In the resort town of Berdyansk, on the shore of the Azov Sea, residents described the soldiers who captured their town Sunday as exhausted young conscripts.
> 
> "Frightened kids, frightened looks. They want to eat," Konstantin Maloletka, who runs a small shop, said by telephone.
> 
> The soldiers went into a supermarket and grabbed canned meat, vodka and cigarettes. "They ate right in the store," he said. "It looked like they haven't been fed in recent days.



Question - 

Are these kids authorized "Foragers" handing out government scrip (IOUs)?  Or are they "Looters"  (Private Enterprise)?


----------



## Kirkhill

TacticalTea said:


> UK ports closed to Russian shipping, EU to follow
> 
> Why hasn't this happened in Canada yet? Why are we always dead last?
> We're an oil producing nation, why hasn't RUS O&G been banned already?
> 
> Yes there are consequences, but the consequences to abetting wars of aggression - which we do by financing the RUS military by buying their O&G - are far greater.



What is Germany doing?


----------



## FM07

Czech_pivo said:


> The soldiers went into a supermarket and grabbed canned meat, vodka and cigarettes. "They ate right in the store," he said. "It looked like they haven't been fed in recent days.


  Nothing like breaking the fast with a hearty soviet meal like that.  I'm sure they're in dire need of a shot and smoke at this point.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> Another example of their failure at Logistics.
> 
> In the resort town of Berdyansk, on the shore of the Azov Sea, residents described the soldiers who captured their town Sunday as exhausted young *conscripts* ...


But, but, but this can't possibly be true according to RUS state media








						Only officers, contract servicemen take part in operation in Ukraine — Defense Ministry
					

On February 24, the Russian president said that in response to a request by the leaders of the Donbass republics he had made a decision to carry out a special military operation




					tass.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

Czech_pivo said:


> Another example of their failure at Logistics.
> 
> In the resort town of Berdyansk, on the shore of the Azov Sea, residents described the soldiers who captured their town Sunday as exhausted young conscripts.
> 
> "Frightened kids, frightened looks. They want to eat," Konstantin Maloletka, who runs a small shop, said by telephone.
> 
> The soldiers went into a supermarket and grabbed canned meat, vodka and cigarettes. "They ate right in the store," he said. "It looked like they haven't been fed in recent days.




I think I saw this clip during the Battle of the Bulge, right after the Germans failed to reach the Allied fuel depot ....

Russian army walking home​


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498385994395041797


----------



## HiTechComms

Kirkhill said:


> Question -
> 
> Are these kids authorized "Foragers" handing out government scrip (IOUs)?  Or are they "Looters"  (Private Enterprise)?


Reminds me of the Sausage War.. History repeating?

I think the liberals have a progressive name for that.. "Irregular Shoppers"?


----------



## OldSolduer

The Bread Guy said:


> But, but, but this can't possibly be true according to RUS state media
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Only officers, contract servicemen take part in operation in Ukraine — Defense Ministry
> 
> 
> On February 24, the Russian president said that in response to a request by the leaders of the Donbass republics he had made a decision to carry out a special military operation
> 
> 
> 
> 
> tass.com


Sure. 

I'd say the conscripts are the first wave. I reckon the Guards Divisions, if they still exist are quite another story.


----------



## TacticalTea

Kirkhill said:


> What is Germany doing?


My comment does not really relate to Germany, so bit of an odd question, but I can entertain it.

GER has suspended NS2, is building two LNG terminals and is increasing defence spending to 2% of GDP, as well as sending lethal weapons to UKR.

Canada has just recently blocked the construction of an LNG terminal, has made no announcements - other than the North Warning System upgrade - re military spending or capabilities (which are outdated and COIN-oriented), and is not sending lethal weapons to UKR.

Voices in the EU are pushing for the organization to follow UK's lead in closing off EU ports to RUS shipping.


----------



## dapaterson

Excellent summary to date, reminding us that we're only four days in.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498381975022940167


----------



## OldSolduer

dapaterson said:


> Excellent summary to date, reminding us that we're only four days in.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498381975022940167


The Russians may smarten up.


----------



## TacticalTea

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498390517725511685
Ballsy move from Finland.


----------



## HiTechComms

TacticalTea said:


> My comment does not really relate to Germany, so bit of an odd question, but I can entertain it.
> 
> GER has suspended NS2, is building two LNG terminals and is increasing defence spending to 2% of GDP, as well as sending lethal weapons to UKR.
> 
> Canada has just recently blocked the construction of an LNG terminal, has made no announcements - other than the North Warning System upgrade - re military spending or capabilities (which are outdated and COIN-oriented), and is not sending lethal weapons to UKR.
> 
> Voices in the EU are pushing for the organization to follow UK's lead in closing off EU ports to RUS shipping.


Well since the EA has been amended conveniently why not just declare a EA! Maybe this time the politicians will legislate instead for weeks to figure out what to do next?

The universe of Politics works in mysterious ways!


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498392191911309313


----------



## Kirkhill

OldSolduer said:


> Sure.
> 
> I'd say the conscripts are the first wave. I reckon the Guards Divisions, if they still exist are quite another story.


I understand 1 Guards Tank Army is the formation forced to bypass Kharkiv after failing to secure it.  They seem to have been reduced to stonking Kharkiv with Grads.


----------



## HiTechComms

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498392191911309313


Convenient for Poland. Get rid of old Migs and replace them with F16 Block 52s. Smart move.


----------



## Kirkhill

TacticalTea said:


> My comment does not really relate to Germany, so bit of an odd question, but I can entertain it.
> 
> GER has suspended NS2, is building two LNG terminals and is increasing defence spending to 2% of GDP, as well as sending lethal weapons to UKR.
> 
> Canada has just recently blocked the construction of an LNG terminal, has made no announcements - other than the North Warning System upgrade - re military spending or capabilities (which are outdated and COIN-oriented), and is not sending lethal weapons to UKR.
> 
> Voices in the EU are pushing for the organization to follow UK's lead in closing off EU ports to RUS shipping.



My sense is that Germany is the Bellwether for the EU and that Canada has been taking many leads from the EU in recent years.


----------



## HiTechComms

Kirkhill said:


> My sense is that Germany is the Bellwether for the EU and that Canada has been taking many leads from the EU in recent years.


Crap.. Germans have been getting their energy advice from Greta and the Brits getting out of EU.. Not sure that is the best advice to bet on.


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> My sense is that Germany is the Bellwether for the EU and that Canada has been taking WAY TO FUCKING many leads from the EU in recent years.


Fixed it for you


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498385994395041797


What the RUS info-machine is saying in English so far ....


> Western weapon supplies to Ukraine are a dangerous factor that by no means helps restore order, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the media.  "Supplies of weapons, other hardware and ammunition to Ukraine can and will become a very dangerous and destabilizing factor, which will by no means promote stability or order in Ukraine. And in the long term it will have far more dangerous effects," Peskov said.  He added that "this merely confirms once again Russia took the correct steps for the sake of demilitarization of Ukraine, which by and large is prone to rather aggressive, and quite often criminal designs, as it was the case with the Lugansk and Donetsk republics."  About the EU’s plans for supplying weapons to Ukraine Peskov said that the European Union was "an association that holds an unfriendly position towards us and been taking unfriendly, hostile measures."


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> I understand 1 Guards Tank Army is the formation forced to bypass Kharkiv after failing to secure it.  They seem to have been reduced to stonking Kharkiv with Grads.



Apparently I understand wrongly.



Michael Kofman

@KofmanMichael

The bulk of the Russian military has yet to enter the fight. Outside Kharkiv, most of the 1st Guards Tank Army, and 20th Army, are just sitting there. They pushed a few BTGs a considerable distance past Sumy, but I think a lot of Russia's forces are still on the sidelines. /17


----------



## SupersonicMax

The Bread Guy said:


> What the RUS info-machine is saying in English so far ....


Ah yes. But invading Ukraine contributed to promoting stability and order in Ukraine….


----------



## daftandbarmy

The Dirty Dozen, Part II:


Ukraine Releases Prisoners With Combat Experience To Fight In ‘Struggle For Our State’ Against Russia​Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Monday that he has authorized the release of prisoners with combat experience to help in his nation’s resistance against Russia’s invasion.

Zelensky shared the remarks during an address that called on “everyone” who could join “in the struggle for our state” to do so.

“Ukrainians with real combat experience will be released from custody and will be able to compensate for their guilt in the hottest spots,” Zelensky said, according to The Kyiv Independent.

“All sanctions against some individuals who participated in the Anti-Terrorist Operation will be lifted. The key thing now is defense,” he added.

Zelensky also argued that every shelling “unites us” even more.

“In every conversation with our partners I hear sincere respect. Ukraine has shown the world who we are, and Russia has shown what it has become,” he said. “Every crime, every shelling that the invaders commit against us unites us and our partners even more. Russia did not expect such a solid and powerful response, but the Ukrainians changed that story.”

“Europeans are aware that our soldiers are fighting for our country, and, consequently, for the whole of Europe,” Ukraine’s president added.
Zelenksy has also called on Russian troops to stop fighting and abandon their equipment in defiance of Putin’s invasion.

“Abandon your equipment. Get out of here. Don’t believe your commanders. Don’t believe your propagandists. Just save your lives,” he said.
In addition, Zelensky has called for his nation’s immediate acceptance for membership into the European Union in response to Russia’s invasion










						Ukraine Releases Prisoners With Combat Experience To Fight In ‘Struggle For Our State’ Against Russia | The Daily Wire
					






					www.dailywire.com


----------



## Quirky

HiTechComms said:


> Convenient for Poland. Get rid of old Migs and replace them with F16 Block 52s. Smart move.


Maybe we should be donating our fighters....

Transitioning from a Mig to a CF-18 is pretty easy, just need some sim time in DCS.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Quirky said:


> Maybe we should be donating our fighters....
> 
> Transitioning from a Mig to a CF-18 is pretty easy, just need some sim time in DCS.



Our fighters, or the 2nd hand ones from Ozzie?


----------



## Czech_pivo

daftandbarmy said:


> I think I saw this clip during the Battle of the Bulge, right after the Germans failed to reach the Allied fuel depot ....
> 
> Russian army walking home​


Odds over/under these guys make it back by walking?


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> Another example of their failure at Logistics.
> 
> In the resort town of Berdyansk, on the shore of the Azov Sea, residents described the soldiers who captured their town Sunday as exhausted young conscripts.
> 
> "Frightened kids, frightened looks. They want to eat," Konstantin Maloletka, who runs a small shop, said by telephone.
> 
> The soldiers went into a supermarket and grabbed canned meat, vodka and cigarettes. "They ate right in the store," he said. "It looked like they haven't been fed in recent days.


The sad part of all of this is the young Russians being thrown into the meat grinder without the proper supplies, food, ammo...

I know that if they were well supplied they would be doing better and that's worse for Ukraine, but human life is human life and at the end of the day they didn't decide to engage in this.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Altair said:


> The sad part of all of this is the young Russians being thrown into the meat grinder without the proper supplies, food, ammo...
> 
> I know that if they were well supplied they would be doing better and that's worse for Ukraine, but human life is human life and at the end of the day they didn't decide to engage in this.


When your Log Ops Plan amounts to "they'll welcome us as liberators within the first 24 hrs. Move quick, pack light, they'll have pyrogi and borscht waiting for us" you're going to have a bad time. 

Czar Putin doesn't view his citizens as "people" so it doesn't surprise me that his Generals would treat their soldiers as such either.


----------



## TacticalTea

''It all starts with an idea''

It kinda sounds like Bob Rae is trying to sell me 3000 dollar online entrepreneurship classes...

Just kidding, I thought his speech was actually one of the best today. He sounds like a disappointed dad.


----------



## Kirkhill

rmc_wannabe said:


> When your Log Ops Plan amounts to "they'll welcome us as liberators within the first 24 hrs. Move quick, pack light, they'll have pyrogi and borscht waiting for us" you're going to have a bad time.
> 
> Czar Putin doesn't view his citizens as "people" so it doesn't surprise me that his Generals would treat their soldiers as such either.



Kind of reminds of the advice given to the Mounties in 1873 as they marched along the Canadian / US border.

Don't worry about water barrels.   There are so many rivers you will only need a cup.


----------



## kev994

Kirkhill said:


> Question -
> 
> Are these kids authorized "Foragers" handing out government scrip (IOUs)?  Or are they "Looters"  (Private Enterprise)?


I think looting is a war crime too, where’s my Bingo sheet?


----------



## The Bread Guy

SupersonicMax said:


> Ah yes. But invading Ukraine contributed to promoting stability and order in Ukraine….


In a de-Nazi-fying way, right?

Meanwhile, Canada & U.K. on nationals joining the UKR Foreign Legion ...


> ... “We understand that people of Ukrainian descent want to support their fellow Ukrainians and also that there is a desire to defend the motherland and in that sense it is their own individual decision,” Ms. Joly told reporters at a news conference Sunday. “Let me be clear: we are all very supportive of any form of support to Ukrainians right now.” ...





> Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has said she supports individuals from the UK who might want to go to Ukraine to join an international force to fight.
> She told the BBC it was up to people to make their own decisions, but argued it was a battle "for democracy".
> She said Ukrainians were fighting for freedom, "not just for Ukraine but for the whole of Europe" ...


----------



## TacticalTea

I was wondering when the formula ''These United Nations'' would come up, as usually does ''These United States'' in times of national crisis for our southern neighbour...

Well it just did! From the Irish ambassador at the 11th ESS of the UNGA.


Edit: To respond to an earlier question, according to the Dutch Ambassador; Belarus' actions indeed constitute an act of war in violation of international law.


----------



## tomydoom

The Bread Guy said:


> In a de-Nazi-fying way, right?
> 
> Meanwhile, Canada & U.K. on nationals joining the UKR Foreign Legion ...


I have to say, I was surprised by the Canadian governments response on joining the Ukrainian’s Legion, it’s usually the sort of thing the Canadian government discourages.


----------



## kev994

How the heck did this happen? They just announced it last night. Obviously not using Ivan’s logisticians.
Starlink Delivered

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498392515262746630


----------



## RedFive

Elon probably called up his logistician friend Jeff for a boost to the Ukraine/Poland border where an army truck was waiting for them.


----------



## dapaterson

Rather clear sentiment here.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498387430843502593


----------



## Czech_pivo

Ok, almost 100% of the people on here have CAF so you guys can weigh in on this, but where did these weapons magically come from?

Canada sending anti-tank weapons systems, ammunition to Ukraine, says Trudeau​
Trudeau said. "Today we are announcing that we will be supplying Ukraine with anti-tank weapons systems and upgraded ammunition."

Does this mean that the Carl G's that were part of the original package of weapons for the Kurds were NOT part of the first shipment of 7.8$m of weapons that we flew in mid-week last week?  If so, why didn't we send them in the first place?  Was the thinking, _'hmmm we miigggghhhhttt just need them in Latvia so let's hold on to them'_ or was it... _'let's not give them our only anti-tank weapons, leaving us with none, since chances are the Ukrainians won't last more than 3 days and besides they got thousands from the UK and US already'_... WTF



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/foreign-affairs-minister-more-lethal-aid-shipments-for-ukraine-1.6367163


----------



## Kirkhill

tomydoom said:


> I have to say, I was surprised by the Canadian governments response on joining the Ukrainian’s Legion, it’s usually the sort of thing the Canadian government discourages.



That could be sold as continuing in a Canadian tradition.









						100th (Prince of Wales's Royal Canadian) Regiment of Foot - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				








						Bataillon canadien des zouaves pontificaux — Wikipédia
					






					fr.wikipedia.org
				











						Lord Strathcona's Horse (Royal Canadians) - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				











						Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




These were all government sanctioned foreign service volunteer corps.

It could even be argued that Sam Hughes's CEF and the pre-Conscription WW2 army in Europe were an extension of that volunteer policy.  As was the Special Force enlisted for Korea.

The odd man out is the Mackenzie Papineau Battalion which was not government sanctioned, even though it trod a well worn path.









						Mackenzie–Papineau Battalion - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## suffolkowner

Czech_pivo said:


> Ok, almost 100% of the people on here have CAF so you guys can weigh in on this, but where did these weapons magically come from?
> 
> Canada sending anti-tank weapons systems, ammunition to Ukraine, says Trudeau​
> Trudeau said. "Today we are announcing that we will be supplying Ukraine with anti-tank weapons systems and upgraded ammunition."
> 
> Does this mean that the Carl G's that were part of the original package of weapons for the Kurds were NOT part of the first shipment of 7.8$m of weapons that we flew in mid-week last week?  If so, why didn't we send them in the first place?  Was the thinking, _'hmmm we miigggghhhhttt just need them in Latvia so let's hold on to them'_ or was it... _'let's not give them our only anti-tank weapons, leaving us with none, since chances are the Ukrainians won't last more than 3 days and besides they got thousands from the UK and US already'_... WTF
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/foreign-affairs-minister-more-lethal-aid-shipments-for-ukraine-1.6367163


I'm going to assume they are the Karl Gustaf that were meant for the Kurds that we didn't send earlier


----------



## KevinB

suffolkowner said:


> I'm going to assume they are the Karl Gustaf that were meant for the Kurds that we didn't send earlier


War Stock could be another answer.


----------



## Remius

suffolkowner said:


> I'm going to assume they are the Karl Gustaf that were meant for the Kurds that we didn't send earlier


Carl G would make sense.  Easy to learn and employ.


----------



## MilEME09

Has anyone seen any stats on how much kit the Ukrainians have captured  and put into service fir them? We have seen tons of videos of them finding abandoned vehicles, scavenging ammo and weapons. Just how much kit has been turned against their former masters in Russia?


----------



## MilEME09

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60542877?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=621d4426ec502b53cd4802c9%26Huge%20Russian%20convoy%20advances%20on%20Kyiv%262022-02-28T22%3A00%3A57.769Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:d11daa93-6af0-4ce5-a77b-fbbb6b00061e&pinned_post_asset_id=621d4426ec502b53cd4802c9&pinned_post_type=share
		


Those Ukrainian pilots better get back from Poland quickly, this is an A-10s wet dream


----------



## kev994

Czech_pivo said:


> Ok, almost 100% of the people on here have CAF so you guys can weigh in on this, but where did these weapons magically come from?
> 
> Canada sending anti-tank weapons systems, ammunition to Ukraine, says Trudeau​
> Trudeau said. "Today we are announcing that we will be supplying Ukraine with anti-tank weapons systems and upgraded ammunition."
> 
> Does this mean that the Carl G's that were part of the original package of weapons for the Kurds were NOT part of the first shipment of 7.8$m of weapons that we flew in mid-week last week?  If so, why didn't we send them in the first place?  Was the thinking, _'hmmm we miigggghhhhttt just need them in Latvia so let's hold on to them'_ or was it... _'let's not give them our only anti-tank weapons, leaving us with none, since chances are the Ukrainians won't last more than 3 days and besides they got thousands from the UK and US already'_... WTF
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/foreign-affairs-minister-more-lethal-aid-shipments-for-ukraine-1.6367163


Maybe they were hidden in an effort to avoid people posting their numbers on the internet. 
Alternatively we could be sending wine bottles, gas, and rags because Russia clearly has weak tanks that are being clobbered by ladies in their cars.


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> GK,
> 
> I think you may be underestimating the impact.   A lot of western Canadians and Ontarians have Ukraining family and friends.   And it doesn't matter if their ancestors arrived escaping the Czar, the Communists of the Nazis, or which church they go to.




Just to note:  That mess was typed on my phone - 
Here's the intended version

I think you may be underestimating the impact.   A lot of western Canadians and Ontarians have Ukrainian family and friends.   And it doesn't matter if their ancestors arrived escaping the Czar, the Communists or the Nazis, or which church they go to.


----------



## Spencer100

This guy for the win.  Busting ghosts

That's a morale patch!


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498425018010718216
This could be dangerous


----------



## Jarnhamar

Might be fitting to send crates of taken-off-the-shelf Russian Standard vodka.


----------



## suffolkowner

Still a strange war so far in my opinion

Russia masses a large amount of its combat force on the border of Ukraine
Sends in approximately 1/3 of its least capable troops to start the operation
Russia is unable to sustain logistics to this combat force, Is this why the rest of force can not engage?
Russia unable to secure airfields or destroy AD system in place and yet still tries night time attack
Russian heavy armor mostly resticted to roadway due to ground conditions
Complete lack of coordination between various Russian BTG's including with infantry, artillery, and air force
Ukrainian air defences remain at least partly viable
Ukrainian air force retains ability to bring fighters to action
Ukraine continues to be able to use TB2 in contested air space
Seems to be a lack of the larger engagements and artillery attacks that were such a big part of the Donbas war. Due to risk from Air Domain?
Russian industry is unable to replace war stock in necessary time to keep up with attack
Russian forces are limited by ROE regarding mass strikes?
Russian forces are sufferring from huge morale problem and almost mutinous desire to not fight their Ukrainian brothers
Russian leadership honestly did not expect much Ukrainian resistance

So much of the above is just plainly shocking to me. The best the Russians can expect out of this now is to be bogged down in an insurgency as we continue to supply the Ukrainians and the strip Russia piece by piece of all their vaunted military hardware


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Interesting article on logistics


			https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/28/russia-ukraine-logistics-invasion/


----------



## Altair

suffolkowner said:


> Still a strange war so far in my opinion
> 
> Russia masses a large amount of its combat force on the border of Ukraine
> Sends in approximately 1/3 of its least capable troops to start the operation
> Russia is unable to sustain logistics to this combat force, Is this why the rest of force can not engage?
> Russia unable to secure airfields or destroy AD system in place and yet still tries night time attack
> Russian heavy armor mostly resticted to roadway due to ground conditions
> Complete lack of coordination between various Russian BTG's including with infantry, artillery, and air force
> Ukrainian air defences remain at least partly viable
> Ukrainian air force retains ability to bring fighters to action
> Ukraine continues to be able to use TB2 in contested air space
> Seems to be a lack of the larger engagements and artillery attacks that were such a big part of the Donbas war. Due to risk from Air Domain?
> Russian industry is unable to replace war stock in necessary time to keep up with attack
> Russian forces are limited by ROE regarding mass strikes?
> Russian forces are sufferring from huge morale problem and almost mutinous desire to not fight their Ukrainian brothers
> Russian leadership honestly did not expect much Ukrainian resistance
> 
> So much of the above is just plainly shocking to me. The best the Russians can expect out of this now is to be bogged down in an insurgency as we continue to supply the Ukrainians and the strip Russia piece by piece of all their vaunted military hardware


Don't forget Russian Armor not being supported by infantry and Russian infantry moving in without armor support. 

Just a complete and total disconnect between every branch of the Russian military.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

FM07 said:


> Well I did see a picture of a truck with a  "Z" painted the wrong side up, scrawled out, and a new Z put right beside it. You had one job.



Guuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuump!  Goddamit Gump!  You....are a genius Gump!!!


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60542877?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=621d4426ec502b53cd4802c9%26Huge%20Russian%20convoy%20advances%20on%20Kyiv%262022-02-28T22%3A00%3A57.769Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:d11daa93-6af0-4ce5-a77b-fbbb6b00061e&pinned_post_asset_id=621d4426ec502b53cd4802c9&pinned_post_type=share
> 
> 
> 
> Those Ukrainian pilots better get back from Poland quickly, this is an A-10s wet dream




More interesting? From that same BBC report.



> *Russia has now committed around three-quarters of the troops it had massed on Ukraine's border.*
> 
> Its air and artillery strikes have until now been limited.
> 
> Western officials say that Russia has *still to destroy Ukraine's air defences and gain supremacy in the air.*
> 
> They also believe that Russia's invasion is* not going according to plan* because it has met *stronger resistance than expected* and because of poor preparation. Armoured convoys have been* running out of fuel.
> 
> But as Russia commits more of its resources *and firepower to the fight, it could all change quickly.
> 
> Western officials on Monday said they'd seen a recent increase in Russian artillery strikes on cities including Kyiv and Kharkiv. They've expressed concern that indiscriminate firing into urban areas will lead to significant civilian casualties.
> 
> Human rights groups also say there's evidence that Russia has been using cluster munitions, banned by many countries.
> 
> Russian setbacks could lead to more ruthless actions. Russia's indiscriminate bombing campaign in Syria and, before that, Chechnya shows Russia under President Putin is more concerned about results than civilian casualties or international condemnation.



But as Russia commits more of its resources.....

It it is spending shells and missiles (not bombs because that means they would have to be able to get aircraft into the air), I would argue they are getting desperate and that presents one set of problems for the Ukrainians but may also mean that we are looking at a short game.

On the other hand, if those resources that Russia is committing are coming by air and rail to the Ukrainian border, to replenish the committed, lost and worn down stocks of troops and kit then we are looking at a long game and an entirely different set of problems for the Ukrainians.

Any info on air and rail traffic movements inside Russia?  Belorus?


----------



## HiTechComms

suffolkowner said:


> Still a strange war so far in my opinion
> 
> Russia masses a large amount of its combat force on the border of Ukraine
> Sends in approximately 1/3 of its least capable troops to start the operation
> Russia is unable to sustain logistics to this combat force, Is this why the rest of force can not engage?
> Russia unable to secure airfields or destroy AD system in place and yet still tries night time attack
> Russian heavy armor mostly resticted to roadway due to ground conditions
> Complete lack of coordination between various Russian BTG's including with infantry, artillery, and air force
> Ukrainian air defences remain at least partly viable
> Ukrainian air force retains ability to bring fighters to action
> Ukraine continues to be able to use TB2 in contested air space
> Seems to be a lack of the larger engagements and artillery attacks that were such a big part of the Donbas war. Due to risk from Air Domain?
> Russian industry is unable to replace war stock in necessary time to keep up with attack
> Russian forces are limited by ROE regarding mass strikes?
> Russian forces are sufferring from huge morale problem and almost mutinous desire to not fight their Ukrainian brothers
> Russian leadership honestly did not expect much Ukrainian resistance
> 
> So much of the above is just plainly shocking to me. The best the Russians can expect out of this now is to be bogged down in an insurgency as we continue to supply the Ukrainians and the strip Russia piece by piece of all their vaunted military hardware


My opinion is not popular one but I think Russia wants a Political (via military force) solution they are using twist your arm tactic to get Ukraine to the negotiating table. This is why I say sit back and let the negotiations start.


----------



## Czech_pivo

suffolkowner said:


> Still a strange war so far in my opinion
> 
> Russia masses a large amount of its combat force on the border of Ukraine
> Sends in approximately 1/3 of its least capable troops to start the operation
> Russia is unable to sustain logistics to this combat force, Is this why the rest of force can not engage?
> Russia unable to secure airfields or destroy AD system in place and yet still tries night time attack
> Russian heavy armor mostly resticted to roadway due to ground conditions
> Complete lack of coordination between various Russian BTG's including with infantry, artillery, and air force
> Ukrainian air defences remain at least partly viable
> Ukrainian air force retains ability to bring fighters to action
> Ukraine continues to be able to use TB2 in contested air space
> Seems to be a lack of the larger engagements and artillery attacks that were such a big part of the Donbas war. Due to risk from Air Domain?
> Russian industry is unable to replace war stock in necessary time to keep up with attack
> Russian forces are limited by ROE regarding mass strikes?
> Russian forces are sufferring from huge morale problem and almost mutinous desire to not fight their Ukrainian brothers
> Russian leadership honestly did not expect much Ukrainian resistance
> 
> So much of the above is just plainly shocking to me. The best the Russians can expect out of this now is to be bogged down in an insurgency as we continue to supply the Ukrainians and the strip Russia piece by piece of all their vaunted military hardware


Anyone have any thoughts on why the Donbass seems to be so quiet? The traitors in that area seem to not be willing to engage and push forward. I’ve not seen any reports or clips.

The longer the 2/3 troops sit on the fringes the less effective they become. It’s like everyday the bleed capabilities.

Have to wonder if they are looking to grind down and wear down the Ukrainians to the point of exhaustion and no ammo and then the remaining 2/3 move in. 

Churchill and his enigma analogy is bearing fruit once again.


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498425018010718216
> This could be dangerous




It is intended to be.

Ukraine (Non-NATO)-Poland (NATO)-UK (NATO - UNSC - Independent Strategic Deterrent)

UK-JEF (UK (See above) -Netherlands (NATO-EU) -Denmark (NATO-EU) -Norway (NATO-EU) -Sweden (Neutral-EU) -Finland (Neutral-EU)-Estonia (NATO-EU) -Latvia (NATO-EU) -Lithania (NATO-EU).

Just one more dilemma for Vlad.

Fortunately everyone knows how predictable Boris is.


----------



## Kirkhill

HiTechComms said:


> My opinion is not popular one but I think Russia wants a Political (via military force) solution they are using twist your arm tactic to get Ukraine to the negotiating table. This is why I say sit back and let the negotiations start.



As you say.  It is an opinion and it is not popular.  But I support you're right to be both unpopular and wrong!


----------



## kev994

Jarnhamar said:


> Might be fitting to send crates of taken-off-the-shelf Russian Standard vodka.


For Molotov cocktails?


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498249641707679747
Not sure if this changes anything.


----------



## kev994

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498425018010718216
> This could be dangerous


Seems pretty much equivalent to launching missiles from Belarus, whether or not that is right…


----------



## kev994

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498249641707679747
> Not sure if this changes anything.


Formality really, they were defacto already in it by letting the Ruskies fire from their territory.


----------



## Dana381

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498249641707679747
> Not sure if this changes anything.


Only if they have fuel, I didn't see any tankers in that convoy


----------



## kev994

ICC to investigate possible War Crimes. 









						ICC prosecutor to investigate possible war crimes in Ukraine
					

Karim Khan says that although Ukraine isn’t a member of the ICC, it has awarded jurisdiction to the court




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498249641707679747
> Not sure if this changes anything.



A long column of  unarmoured vehicles idle on the roadside.

About 14 towed weapons?

10x Type A (Towed Mortars?)
4x Type B (Light Guns?)

The light guns don't appear to be D30s - they don't appear to be being towed by their barrels.

Anti-Tank guns?


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Well Russia has to make it look like SOMEBODY  is with them.


----------



## Altair

kev994 said:


> ICC to investigate possible War Crimes.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ICC prosecutor to investigate possible war crimes in Ukraine
> 
> 
> Karim Khan says that although Ukraine isn’t a member of the ICC, it has awarded jurisdiction to the court
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com


I'm not pro Russia by any means ( I leave that to HitechComms) but has Russia been commiting war crimes, anymore than Israel in Gaza or the west attacking Afghanistan or Iraq?

Sometimes wars get messy, especially with every man woman and child in Ukraine taking up arms and fighting in urban areas.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

MilEME09 said:


> https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60542877?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=621d4426ec502b53cd4802c9%26Huge%20Russian%20convoy%20advances%20on%20Kyiv%262022-02-28T22%3A00%3A57.769Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:d11daa93-6af0-4ce5-a77b-fbbb6b00061e&pinned_post_asset_id=621d4426ec502b53cd4802c9&pinned_post_type=share
> 
> 
> 
> Those Ukrainian pilots better get back from Poland quickly, this is an A-10s wet dream



Not to be Capt Obvious but....the Russian's do have a decent AD capability;  that convoy could be in the "dome" of multiple system.  S400s, wheeled/tracked AFV stuff, MANPADs....

Be fun to sit on highground in their main axis of advance and pump ATGMs into the lead elements, then withdraw a bit.  Rinse, repeat.  Change it up and hit them from some laterals, gaps, etc.


----------



## daftandbarmy




----------



## Eye In The Sky

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498249641707679747
> Not sure if this changes anything.



"G21, 43A, linear firemission, over"


----------



## Good2Golf

Eye In The Sky said:


> Not to be Capt Obvious but....the Russian's do have a decent AD capability;  that convoy could be in the "dome" of multiple system.  S400s, wheeled/tracked AFV stuff, MANPADs....
> 
> Be fun to sit on highground in their main axis of advance and pump ATGMs into the lead elements, then withdraw a bit.  Rinse, repeat.  Change it up and hit them from some laterals, gaps, etc.


Although we do know there is at least one 2S6 Tanguska and one Pantsir S-1 out of fuel play


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Dana381 said:


> Only if they have fuel, I didn't see any tankers in that convoy



Bowsers are great, easy to spot targets.  But they're also not the only way to transport fuel...



			https://www.princessauto.com/en/20-litre-green-military-style-fuel-can/product/PA0008451411
		


I don't know how the Russian armed forces conduct things like Running Resups etc but...bowsers can cause "lineups".  jerry can dumps....you can be in/out and into a "hide" location...or atleast out of the fueling area (HVT, IMO).  If "49C" or equivalent has his/her shyte together...it is a work of efficiency.


----------



## RaceAddict

MilEME09 said:


> https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60542877?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=621d4426ec502b53cd4802c9%26Huge%20Russian%20convoy%20advances%20on%20Kyiv%262022-02-28T22%3A00%3A57.769Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:d11daa93-6af0-4ce5-a77b-fbbb6b00061e&pinned_post_asset_id=621d4426ec502b53cd4802c9&pinned_post_type=share
> 
> 
> 
> Those Ukrainian pilots better get back from Poland quickly, this is an A-10s wet dream



BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRT!!!


----------



## brihard

Altair said:


> I'm not pro Russia by any means ( I leave that to HitechComms) but has Russia been commiting war crimes, anymore than Israel in Gaza or the west attacking Afghanistan or Iraq?
> 
> Sometimes wars get messy, especially with every man woman and child in Ukraine taking up arms and fighting in urban areas.


Yes. Literally the crime of “aggression”, one state invading and/or occupying another with no legal justification. A violation of _Jus Ad Bellum_, the legality of the war itself. That’s not to say every military act will be a violation in its own right- _Jus In Bello_, how a war is fought. There may be valid targets within residential areas. But strikes and fires must still adhere to necessity, discrimination, and proportionality. I’ve seen a number of things where I struggle to imagine how they can be defensible.

Use of specific weapons - cluster munitions in particular - generally falls to conventions Russia is not a part of. But certain weapons will definitely make it harder to satisfy discrimination and proportionality.

Sometimes valid strikes will miss and hit something else. That’s a ‘shitty reality’ that happens to any belligerent.

But yeah, absolutely Putin could be hauled to The Hague and spend the rest of his life in a cell, along with a number of his commanders.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Good2Golf said:


> Although we do know there is at least one 2S6 Tanguska and one Pantsir S-1 out of fuel play



Oh?  I'll admit, I haven't able to keep up to all the BDA stuff...but I can't say I dislike finding that out.


----------



## daftandbarmy

How will we ever gain control over Pilots' egos with all this going on? 

#Ukraine will receive 70 more aircraft from NATO and the EU countries, says to the Ukrainian parliament. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498401018555551747


----------



## YZT580

Dana381 said:


> Only if they have fuel, I didn't see any tankers in that convoy


If I were assisting in the planning I would keep those a/c in Poland until the first truck in that line crossed the border from Belarus and then make that convoy my proving run.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Altair said:


> ... has Russia been commiting war crimes, anymore than Israel in Gaza or the west attacking Afghanistan or Iraq? ....


I'm not a lawyer or ICC analyst, but Russia's work on this canvas has drawn some eyes ...








						Russia commits indiscriminate attacks during the invasion of Ukraine
					

Indiscriminate attacks violate international humanitarian law (the laws of war) and can constitute war crimes.




					www.amnesty.org
				











						Ukraine: Russian Cluster Munition Hits Hospital
					

A Russian ballistic missile carrying a cluster munition struck just outside a hospital in Vuhledar, a town in the Ukrainian government-controlled Donetska region, on February 24, 2022.




					www.hrw.org
				











						Ukraine: Shelling Residential Areas Puts Civilians at Risk
					

The shelling of a school, a kindergarten, and residential areas along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine on February 17, 2022, apparently by Russia-backed armed groups, injured civilians and damaged civilian infrastructure. The attacks, which injured at least four civilians, severely damaged...




					www.hrw.org
				











						Cluster munitions kill child and two other civilians in Ukrainian Nursery
					

The attack appears to have been carried out by Russian forces operating nearby.




					www.amnesty.org
				




Meanwhile, some highlights from UKR Pres' PM statement


> Russian forces today brutally shelled Kharkiv with rocket artillery. This is definitely a military crime. A peaceful city. Peaceful residential areas. No military object. Dozens of eyewitness records prove that this is not a separate false shot, it is a conscious destruction of people. Russians knew where they were shooting.  For this crime there will definitely be a tribunal. International. This is a breach of all conventions ...





> ... Today, at the initiative of the Russian side, the first round of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia took place. These negotiations took place against the background of bombing and shelling of our territory, our cities. Synchronization of shelling with a negotiation process could be seen. I believe that Russia is trying to put pressure on us in such a way. Don't waste time. We do not perceive such tactics. Fair negotiations are possible when one side does not hit the other side with rocket artillery precisely at the moment of negotiations.  So far we do not have the result we would like to get. Russia has declared its position. We have outlined positions in response - to end the war. Some signals we received. When the delegation returns to Kyiv, we will analyze what we’ve heard and then determine how to move to the second round of negotiations ...


----------



## Altair

brihard said:


> Yes. Literally the crime of “aggression”, one state invading and/or occupying another with no legal justification. A violation of _Jus Ad Bellum_, the legality of the war itself. That’s not to say every military act will be a violation in its own right- _Jus In Bello_, how a war is fought. There may be valid targets within residential areas. But strikes and fires must still adhere to necessity, discrimination, and proportionality. I’ve seen a number of things where I struggle to imagine how they can be defensible.


I get the aggression part, but to play devils advocate, the USA invaded Iraq on flimsy evidence and nobody heard anything about war crimes. 


brihard said:


> Use of specific weapons - cluster munitions in particular - generally falls to conventions Russia is not a part of. But certain weapons will definitely make it harder to satisfy discrimination and proportionality.


That's fair. I will say that it hasn't been a....widespread strategy. But to play devils advocate again, we do have evidence of Israel using cluster bombs and white phosphorus in Lebanon, again, no Israelis tried in war crimes tribunals. 


brihard said:


> Sometimes valid strikes will miss and hit something else. That’s a ‘shitty reality’ that happens to any belligerent.
> 
> But yeah, absolutely Putin could be hauled to The Hague and spend the rest of his life in a cell, along with a number of his commanders.


This is where I see cherry picking the rules.


----------



## suffolkowner

Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine
					






					www.oryxspioenkop.com
				












						Defending Ukraine - Listing Russian Military Equipment Destroyed By Bayraktar TB2s
					






					www.oryxspioenkop.com
				




oryx maintains these updated lists of equipment losses


----------



## MilEME09

daftandbarmy said:


> How will we ever gain control over Pilots' egos with all this going on?
> 
> #Ukraine will receive 70 more aircraft from NATO and the EU countries, says to the Ukrainian parliament.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498401018555551747


We basically tripled their airforce, I hope the munitions we give have some anti radiation missiles mixed in. If Russia looses its AD umbrella, it's game over for their armour


----------



## The Bread Guy

RUS state media:  give 'em weapons, you're with _them_ ...








						EU taking sides with Kiev regime by supplying weapons to it — Russian foreign ministry
					

The European Union has finally taken sides with the Kiev regime, which has unleashed a policy of genocide of part of its own population," it said




					tass.com


----------



## MilEME09

Ukrainian Drone Hit Fuel Train Deep Behind Russian Lines
					

Video shows a compilation of Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 drone strikes against Russian military targets, and among the clips is a strike against a fuel train deep behind Russian lines.




					funker530.com
				




Russian AD slacking, drone strike in Crimea taking out a train filled with fuel, thst should slow down their southern axis.....


In other news

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498450296825159682


----------



## Eye In The Sky

The Bread Guy said:


> RUS state media:  give 'em weapons, you're with _them_ ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> EU taking sides with Kiev regime by supplying weapons to it — Russian foreign ministry
> 
> 
> The European Union has finally taken sides with the Kiev regime, which has unleashed a policy of genocide of part of its own population," it said
> 
> 
> 
> 
> tass.com



_The European Union’s decision to supply lethal weapons to Ukraine means that it is fully taking sides with the Kiev regime..._

Damn.  Can't slip anything past that bunch, eh?







😁


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> I'm not pro Russia by any means ( I leave that to HitechComms) but has Russia been commiting war crimes, anymore than Israel in Gaza or the west attacking Afghanistan or Iraq?
> 
> Sometimes wars get messy, especially with every man woman and child in Ukraine taking up arms and fighting in urban areas.



Oh! I've got you now!

Your with the OTHER faction - the Pro-Euro Faction?

For the record.  Given that one must not cross cultural lines these days for fear of cultural appropriation I shall self identify by the culture of my birth - Anglo-Saxon.

Sometimes we revert to type and reduce our communications to words of four letter or less. Just for future reference! 

Cheers! Or perhaps I should say Skull?

(Slainte Mhor may be misconstrued despite my mother's influence.)


----------



## Eye In The Sky

suffolkowner said:


> Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.oryxspioenkop.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Defending Ukraine - Listing Russian Military Equipment Destroyed By Bayraktar TB2s
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.oryxspioenkop.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> oryx maintains these updated lists of equipment losses



Thanks for this!


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some WW2-ish rhetoric coming from the Donetsk rebel leader's info-machine (links to Google English translation)


> ... The nationalist battalions play the role of defensive detachments, preventing the surrender of Ukrainian regular troops ... “They were in some kind of information vacuum. In fact, they were very surprised by this situation, this alignment. They went on the offensive and prepared for this for a long time, they saw how many weapons were coming to them, they saw what was happening. And when they surrendered and ended up here, they saw that the situation in Kyiv and around Kyiv had already changed, and the situation in Kharkov had changed, and the Republics had already been recognized. It was news for them,” the head of state said ... “The servicemen of the regular army are already ready to lay down their arms, but they are afraid of the nationalists who are behind them. Terbats, in fact, act as detachments, and this is a problem,” Denis Pushilin emphasized ...


----------



## Remius

suffolkowner said:


> Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.oryxspioenkop.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Defending Ukraine - Listing Russian Military Equipment Destroyed By Bayraktar TB2s
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.oryxspioenkop.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> oryx maintains these updated lists of equipment losses


Cool site.  Only confirmed or as confirmed by photo etc.  Still gives you an idea of the difference.


----------



## EnchantedEng

I came across this article which says there was an agreement upon the creation of NATO to not expand into territory formerly controlled by the Soviet Union, which same NATO went on to ignore over the years following the agreement.

Here is the link:

West promised not to expand NATO – Der Spiegel — RT Russia & Former Soviet Union

Can anyone tell me if this is a trustworthy source? For some reason I find it more and more difficult to rely on the media for ... almost anything. I mean... ☔🌧️☀️🌞 even the weather forecast has not been very accurate. The mass media finds it hard to report on anything without being partisan, I think.

Edit: clarity & typo


----------



## Kirkhill

Eye In The Sky said:


> Not to be Capt Obvious but....the Russian's do have a decent AD capability;  that convoy could be in the "dome" of multiple system.  S400s, wheeled/tracked AFV stuff, MANPADs....
> 
> Be fun to sit on highground in their main axis of advance and pump ATGMs into the lead elements, then withdraw a bit.  Rinse, repeat.  Change it up and hit them from some laterals, gaps, etc.



Plan B?


Tochka U tactical ballistic missiles
BM-21 Grad, BM-27 Uragan, BM-30 Smerch multi-launcher rocket systems
And some of the friendly neighbours may have some surplus 122mm rockets lying around.


----------



## blacktriangle

EnchantedEng said:


> I came across this article which says there was an agreement upon the creation of NATO to not expand into territory formerly controlled by the Soviet Union, which same NATO went on to ignore over the years following the agreement.
> 
> Here is the link:
> 
> West promised not to expand NATO – Der Spiegel — RT Russia & Former Soviet Union
> 
> Can anyone tell me if this is a trustworthy source? For some reason I find it more and more difficule to rely on the media for ... almost anything. I mean... ☔🌧️☀️🌞 even the weather forecast has not been very accurate as well as their taking sides when reporting almost everything.


RT = Russia Today.

Sound like an unbiased source to you?


----------



## Remius

EnchantedEng said:


> I came across this article which says there was an agreement upon the creation of NATO to not expand into territory formerly controlled by the Soviet Union, which same NATO went on to ignore over the years following the agreement.
> 
> Here is the link:
> 
> West promised not to expand NATO – Der Spiegel — RT Russia & Former Soviet Union
> 
> Can anyone tell me if this is a trustworthy source? For some reason I find it more and more difficult to rely on the media for ... almost anything. I mean... ☔🌧️☀️🌞 even the weather forecast has not been very accurate. The mass media finds it hard to report on anything without being partisan, I think.
> 
> Edit: clarity & typo











						PolitiFact - Fact-checking claims that NATO, US broke agreement against alliance expanding eastward
					

Two days before Russia invaded Ukraine with an assault that intelligence officials had warned was coming, conservative c




					www.politifact.com


----------



## Altair

Kirkhill said:


> Oh! I've got you now!
> 
> Your with the OTHER faction - the Pro-Euro Faction?
> 
> For the record.  Given that one must not cross cultural lines these days for fear of cultural appropriation I shall self identify by the culture of my birth - Anglo-Saxon.
> 
> Sometimes we revert to type and reduce our communications to words of four letter or less. Just for future reference!
> 
> Cheers! Or perhaps I should say Skull?
> 
> (Slainte Mhor may be misconstrued despite my mother's influence.)


----------



## suffolkowner

Remius said:


> Cool site.  Only confirmed or as confirmed by photo etc.  Still gives you an idea of the difference.


yeah a little more conservative on the numbers and probably lagging a few days. They did the same thing for Armenia-Azerbaijan

Im not sure but maybe Turkish?


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Tick tock....not definitive yet but closer?









						Turkey Says War Exists in Black Sea, Allowing It to Block Russian Navy
					

Turkey’s foreign minister said Sunday that the situation in Ukraine had become a war, a legal distinction that paves the way for Ankara to potentially ban Russian warships from entering the Black Sea through a strategic chokepoint. Turkey’s government had said on Friday it was working to determine




					www.wsj.com
				




Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and director of an Istanbul-based think tank, said that Ankara was likely to issue a formal declaration invoking Article-19 of the Montreux Convention that would allow Turkey to ban warships from countries fighting in a war.


----------



## Remius

EnchantedEng said:


> I came across this article which says there was an agreement upon the creation of NATO to not expand into territory formerly controlled by the Soviet Union, which same NATO went on to ignore over the years following the agreement.
> 
> Here is the link:
> 
> West promised not to expand NATO – Der Spiegel — RT Russia & Former Soviet Union
> 
> Can anyone tell me if this is a trustworthy source? For some reason I find it more and more difficult to rely on the media for ... almost anything. I mean... ☔🌧️☀️🌞 even the weather forecast has not been very accurate. The mass media finds it hard to report on anything without being partisan, I think.
> 
> Edit: clarity & typo


So the article I posted above is recent.  But it is explored here in more detail in 2009.





__





						TWQ: The Myth of a No-NATO-Enlargement Pledge to Russia - Spring 2009
					

In the latter half of the 1990s, as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was preparing to expand its membership for the first time since the admission of Spain in 1982, Russian officials claimed that the entry of former Warsaw Pact countries into NATO would violate a solemn ‘‘pledge’’...




					www.csis.org


----------



## EnchantedEng

@Altair & @Remius & @blacktriangle - Thanks for the quick feedback.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Kirkhill said:


> Plan B?
> 
> 
> Tochka U tactical ballistic missiles
> BM-21 Grad, BM-27 Uragan, BM-30 Smerch multi-launcher rocket systems
> And some of the friendly neighbours may have some surplus 122mm rockets lying around.



The _Mike Tyson_  battleplan.  Could be better than what I said (the _Muhammad Ali_ battleplan).


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498450296825159682
Either this is a very large traffic jam or this is the big push the Ukrainians have been fearing.


----------



## Pieman

I'm semi-seriously considering at this point. Anyone else?

Ukraine appeals for foreign volunteers to join fight against Russia

"Interested volunteers have been told to contact the defence attache of the Ukrainian embassies in their home countries."


----------



## EnchantedEng

blacktriangle said:


> RT = Russia Today.
> 
> Sound like an unbiased source to you?


I dunno. Should I believe everything CBC writes either? 😅

I got some good links above that give some good information, particularly the article from Center for Strategic International Studies which says correlation between available declassified records and memoirs correlate information about that fact being untrue.

Thanks!


----------



## OceanBonfire

After Amnesty International confirmed widely-banned cluster munitions have been used, now it's possible Russia used a vaccum bomb, prohibited by the Geneva convention:









						Ukraine, rights groups say Russia used cluster & vacuum bombs
					

Human rights groups and Ukraine's ambassador to the United States on Monday accused Russia of attacking Ukrainians with cluster bombs and vacuum bombs, weapons that have been condemned by a variety of international organizations.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498450296825159682
> Either this is a very large traffic jam or this is the big push the Ukrainians have been fearing.



Significant is an understatement.  That comment I made about hitting the lead elements?  "anytime" would be a GREAT time to start...


----------



## Kirkhill

Eye In The Sky said:


> The _Mike Tyson_  battleplan.  Could be better than what I said (the _Muhammad Ali_ battleplan).



Two fists 

Jab and Hit.


----------



## Harris

Remius said:


> Needs a bit more training lol.  Looks like she set herself on fire as well


How many molotov cocktails have you thrown at a Russian tank?  I'd cut her some slack.  Probably didn't finish BMQ.  Besides, everyone is wearing short hair now.  🔥


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


>


It's a cultural thing!


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498450296825159682
> Either this is a very large traffic jam or this is the big push the Ukrainians have been fearing.


Or both...


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498412412357300239
Possible move before they get expelled?


----------



## Blackadder1916

EnchantedEng said:


> I came across this article which says there was an agreement upon the creation of NATO to not expand into territory formerly controlled by the Soviet Union, which same NATO went on to ignore over the years following the agreement.
> 
> Here is the link:
> 
> West promised not to expand NATO – Der Spiegel — RT Russia & Former Soviet Union
> 
> Can anyone tell me if this is a trustworthy source? For some reason I find it more and more difficult to rely on the media for ... almost anything. I mean... ☔🌧️☀️🌞 even the weather forecast has not been very accurate. The mass media finds it hard to report on anything without being partisan, I think.
> 
> Edit: clarity & typo



The link to the Russia Today (RT) story is their spin of a story in Der Spiegel.  Why not read the Der Spiegel piece directly and reach your own conclusion.









						NATO's Eastward Expansion: Is Vladimir Putin Right?
					

Vladimir Putin insists that the West cheated Russia by expanding NATO eastward following the end of the Cold War. Is there anything to his claims? The short answer: It's complicated.




					www.spiegel.de
				




From the article


> There is, of course, *no legally binding agreement between the two sides from the period following the fall of the Berlin Wall*. The verdict as to whether the West has broken its word depends entirely on how binding one believes the assurances made by Major and the others actually were.



Pinky swears are not international treaties.  What some diplomat/politician says in the midst of negotiations that is not later ratified by his nation does not bind a country or international organization to a permanent obligation.


----------



## kev994

Remius said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498412412357300239
> Possible move before they get expelled?


How they going to do that without flying a Russian plane through Canadian airspace? Start paddling?


----------



## Remius

kev994 said:


> How they going to do that without flying a Russian plane through Canadian airspace? Start paddling?


Plenty of other air carriers that can take them out.  Just not Russian owned or operated.  My guess would be a charter of some type.


----------



## dapaterson

kev994 said:


> How they going to do that without flying a Russian plane through Canadian airspace? Start paddling?


Fly them to Warsaw, get them a rental, and give them a map to Minsk.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

kev994 said:


> How they going to do that without flying a Russian plane through Canadian airspace? Start paddling?



Should we start a GoFundMe to purchase some of these?  They look seaworthy to me;  I bet they'd be fine all the way to Polyarny...






						:: Welcome to AATAPI Wonderland ::
					






					aatapiwonderland.com


----------



## dapaterson

Librarians, right?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498309449169178634


----------



## Blackadder1916

Remius said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498412412357300239
> Possible move before they get expelled?



The rush has already begun south of the border.









						US expels 12 Russian diplomats for ‘espionage activities’
					

The Biden administration on Monday announced it would be revoking diplomatic privileges for a dozen Russian spies accused of carrying out espionage under the cover of diplomacy.“The U.S. has inform…




					thehill.com


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498462267180032000


----------



## blacktriangle

EnchantedEng said:


> I dunno. Should I believe everything CBC writes either? 😅


Nope. This link might be of some use to you. 

(And no, don't believe everything the CIA tells you, either)


----------



## suffolkowner

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498450296825159682
> Either this is a very large traffic jam or this is the big push the Ukrainians have been fearing.


reading that they may be in the process of hitting it-treat with appropiate skepticism

Curious about Russian air cover


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Open source, so I can't say the narrative is "accurate" (these weapons systems aren't my B & B).  Interesting comments re: tactical employment around the 5:55 mark onwards.


----------



## GR66

dapaterson said:


> Fly them to Warsaw, get them a rental, and give them a map to Minsk.


Fly them to Kyiv...they can wait for their buddies to pick them up there....


----------



## MilEME09

One thing I noticed, Canada specifically said it was sending gas masks to Ukraine, any one have Intel on the CBRN threat?


----------



## Eye In The Sky

MilEME09 said:


> One thing I noticed, Canada specifically said it was sending gas masks to Ukraine, any one have Intel on the CBRN threat?













						Ukrainian ambassador: Russia ‘handing out gas masks’ ahead of potential chemical attack
					

Russian forces are distributing “gas masks” among their troops in eastern Ukraine, according to a senior Ukrainian official who suggested that Russian forces might orchestrate a chemical attack under false pretenses.




					www.washingtonexaminer.com
				




IF you consider this credible...

However, I'll also add;  I carried a full-kitted out mask/carrier on every mission over Iraq/Syria...there was never a credible NBC threat there.  Pers NBC kit like mask/carriers are pretty standard issue IMO, across all elements/Commands in the CAF.


----------



## TacticalTea

Altair said:


> I'm not pro Russia by any means ( I leave that to HitechComms) but has Russia been commiting war crimes, anymore than Israel in Gaza or the west attacking Afghanistan or Iraq?
> 
> Sometimes wars get messy, especially with every man woman and child in Ukraine taking up arms and fighting in urban areas.


Yep.

Using cluster munitions (not by their nature, RUS is not signatory to that convention, but by their use) / MLRS in an inhabited urban area with no effect on the enemy military (as to justify the proportionality criteria wrt collateral damage*).

Israel makes a clear effort to avoid civilian casualties. No such efforts have been made from Russian artillery, but we can commend Russian infantry and armour for their restraint towards civilians. I have seen no evidence of war crimes from those arms of the RF.



Kirkhill said:


> Oh! I've got you now!
> 
> Your with the OTHER faction - the Pro-Euro Faction?
> 
> For the record.  Given that one must not cross cultural lines these days for fear of *cultural appropriation* I shall self identify by the culture of my birth - Anglo-Saxon.


Cultural appropriation is bullshit! Except when you Anglos claim Poutine is ''Canadian'' 😤


Eye In The Sky said:


> Tick tock....not definitive yet but closer?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Turkey Says War Exists in Black Sea, Allowing It to Block Russian Navy
> 
> 
> Turkey’s foreign minister said Sunday that the situation in Ukraine had become a war, a legal distinction that paves the way for Ankara to potentially ban Russian warships from entering the Black Sea through a strategic chokepoint. Turkey’s government had said on Friday it was working to determine
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.wsj.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and director of an Istanbul-based think tank, said that Ankara was likely to issue a formal declaration invoking Article-19 of the Montreux Convention that would allow Turkey to ban warships from countries fighting in a war.


There has been an incredible amount of disinformation (from incompetence, not malevolence) wrt to this story, even from many MSMs. The best source for up-to-date naval environment information is probably www.maritime-executive.com


Pieman said:


> I'm semi-seriously considering at this point. Anyone else?
> 
> Ukraine appeals for foreign volunteers to join fight against Russia
> 
> "Interested volunteers have been told to contact the defence attache of the Ukrainian embassies in their home countries."


For sure. Sitting on the sidelines is infuriating. But those groups are usually best served by experienced infantrymen, especially when there is zero time for training. I'd be more useful on a ship.


----------



## RangerRay

Remius said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498412412357300239
> Possible move before they get expelled?


My question is why haven't we expelled them before now?


----------



## RangerRay

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498450296825159682
> Either this is a very large traffic jam or this is the big push the Ukrainians have been fearing.


...and why is this convoy not a flaming wreck right now?


----------



## kev994

RangerRay said:


> My question is why haven't we expelled them before now?


My guess is because it’s more difficult to influence policy from afar. Kinda the whole point of ambassadors.


----------



## Spencer100

RangerRay said:


> ...and why is this convoy not a flaming wreck right now?


As I said earlier. Has a defender ever had more ISR information and data in the history of warfare? But so little at this point to do anything? Must be infuriating.


----------



## Remius

Spencer100 said:


> As I said earlier. Has a defender ever had more ISR information and data in the history of warfare? But so little at this point to do anything? Must infuriating.


IT’S RIGHT THERE.   Totally infuriating.  I can just imagine how many missed opportunities they’ve had…


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498477869936398340
Upping the pressure.


----------



## YZT580

kev994 said:


> My guess is because it’s more difficult to influence policy from afar. Kinda the whole point of ambassadors.


Too true and it is noteworthy that the Americans did not tell the ambassador to leave.  They are simply making it difficult for the embassy to conduct business as usual.  As for Canada doing the same, that would have required either or bothe initiative and cojones.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Well, this is some unexpectedly good news:

Russia's term as UN Security Council president ends in the next few hours​
Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia’s term as president of the United Nations Security Council ends at midnight ET Monday and he concluded his presidency by calling into question the veracity of statements about Ukraine made by his colleagues.

The presidency of the council rotates between members every month. United Arab Emirates Ambassador to the UN Lana Zaki Nusseibeh will begin her presidency on Tuesday for March.



			https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-28-22/index.html
		

​​​​​​


----------



## Eye In The Sky

TacticalTea said:


> *Speaking of which, way too many Canadian COs over-use the word ''proportionality'' when talking about use of force, but that's because we've become neutered into thinking about UoF only in the context of peacekeeping and self-defence).



Most (Army) COs today would have likely been in Afghanistan...RCN and RCAF COs don't think in "peacekeeping" terms.  Maybe your experience is fairly narrow and that gives you the opinion above?


----------



## OldSolduer

Spencer100 said:


> As I said earlier. Has a defender ever had more ISR information and data in the history of warfare? But so little at this point to do anything? Must be infuriating.


Maybe they haven’t got the weapons to effectively engage it?


----------



## TacticalTea

Eye In The Sky said:


> Most (Army) COs today would have likely been in Afghanistan...RCN and RCAF COs don't think in "peacekeeping" terms.  Maybe your experience is fairly narrow and that gives you the opinion above?


Hm, I was definitely thinking about Navy COs, I should've been more specific.


----------



## Remius

The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force
					

On the fifth day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, one of many unanswered questions is why Russia has launched a military campaign at huge cost with maximalist objectives, and then declined to use the vast majority of its fixed wing combat aircraft.




					rusi.org
				




Interesting article.  I wonder what some of our airforce folks have to say about this. The flight hours surprised me.


----------



## kev994

TacticalTea said:


> Hm, I was definitely thinking about Navy COs, I should've been more specific.


I’m not following, it’s one of the principles of the Law of Armed Conflict and has to do with civilian bystanders…
The principle of proportionality prohibits attacks against military objectives which are “expected to cause incidental loss of civilian life, injury to civilians, damage to civilian objects, or a combination thereof, which would be excessive in relation to the concrete and direct military advantageanticipated”.
Link to the first source I could find


----------



## Spencer100

OldSolduer said:


> Maybe they haven’t got the weapons to effectively engage it?


That's what I meant. They know but have nothing to throw at it.


----------



## MilEME09

Spencer100 said:


> That's what I meant. They know but have nothing to throw at it.


I think they do, but they are also cautious, their drones are highly effective and low in number, and it sounds like many of their pilots are in Poland preparing to take all their new birds into action. Meanwhile Russia has lost over a dozen AA vehicles of various types,  but exploiting holes in the AD net might not happen yet.


----------



## dapaterson

pbi said:


> Which is why we probably want to step carefully here. I look at Russia as a mortally sick but still formidable monster, one which becomes much more dangerous as it becomes more desperate.



From over eight years ago, on the first page of this thread...


----------



## TacticalTea

kev994 said:


> I’m not following, it’s one of the principles of the Law of Armed Conflict and has to do with civilian bystanders…
> The principle of proportionality prohibits attacks against military objectives which are “expected to cause incidental loss of civilian life, injury to civilians, damage to civilian objects, or a combination thereof, which would be excessive in relation to the concrete and direct military advantageanticipated”.
> Link to the first source I could find


Yes, and that's all fine and good.

The problem is that when this is all you talk about, the sailors and JOs get confused and think it applies to all targets. IE: Some reacted to the use of MOAB against cave dwellers by asking ''isn't this disproportionate? How is it even legal'', when proportionality just did not apply in that situation at all, as there was no risk of collateral damage.

It's not said anywhere that the UoF has to be proportional to the threat (outside of self-defence / collateral damage). Especially not in legal terms. You might want to turn to age old concepts like economy of effort or concentration of force to determine what tool in your arsenal is appropriate against a given target, though.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Remius said:


> The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force
> 
> 
> On the fifth day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, one of many unanswered questions is why Russia has launched a military campaign at huge cost with maximalist objectives, and then declined to use the vast majority of its fixed wing combat aircraft.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> rusi.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Interesting article.  I wonder what some of our airforce folks have to say about this. The flight hours surprised me.



Disclaimer - I am NOT a fighter....anything, really.  I don't even want to pass myself off as an amateur; pure MAG type here.

WAG - possible the Russians do not want to lose any high-value aircraft, weapons and pilots?  Troops and BTRs are "a dime a dozen";  lose your fast air assets quickly and that's a different story.  Hard to replace the aircraft, harder to train pilots to combat levels.


----------



## KevinB

Remius said:


> The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force
> 
> 
> On the fifth day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, one of many unanswered questions is why Russia has launched a military campaign at huge cost with maximalist objectives, and then declined to use the vast majority of its fixed wing combat aircraft.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> rusi.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Interesting article.  I wonder what some of our airforce folks have to say about this. The flight hours surprised me.


I think he’s missing the whole aspect about Western data feeds to UKR.  
   The Russians can’t do anything even near the AO without NATO feeding it to the Ukraine - and the NATO provided AD net that the UKR has.    
  I suspect the Russians aren’t 100% how much AD was sent into Ukraine.   They threatened earlier that us (USA) sending THAAD in to UKR would be viewed as an act of war (yawn) - but Russia mostly likely has memories of what the Stinger did in Afghanistan- and we’ve gotten a lot better since then…

   The destroyed UKR AD was mostly older stuff - it appeared to me left out as a deception plan to soak up early RU strikes.  

 Also Russia probably wants to avoid at least 350km from the Polish (or any other NATO border) THAAD is definitely there at minimum. 
   If it’s 1Meter into UKR and an advisor says push this button to a UKR trainee that’s legit.


----------



## Spencer100

dapaterson said:


> From over eight years ago, on the first page of this thread...


Yes that's is the world's worry.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> Oh! I've got you now!
> 
> Your with the OTHER faction - the Pro-Euro Faction?
> 
> For the record.  Given that one must not cross cultural lines these days for fear of cultural appropriation I shall self identify by the culture of my birth - Anglo-Saxon.
> 
> Sometimes we revert to type and reduce our communications to words of four letter or less. Just for future reference!
> 
> Cheers! Or perhaps I should say Skull?
> 
> (Slainte Mhor may be misconstrued despite my mother's influence.)


I identify as a WASP - White Anglo Saxon Pollack - is that ok?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Czech_pivo said:


> I identify as a WASP - White Anglo Saxon Pollack - is that ok?


----------



## Spencer100

Too get ahead of myself when the story of this war is written I think the two big themes will be the ISR, data and information flow. The other being the first major Social media war and the PR battle fought.  It this point that social media PR battle is as important as the real battles going on.  It's is amazing to watch the PR, news and social feeds. A leader like Puton has no idea about such things. But an actor as a president does.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

TacticalTea said:


> It's not said anywhere that the UoF has to be proportional to the threat (outside of self-defence / collateral damage). Especially not in legal terms. You might want to turn to age old concepts like economy of effort or concentration of force to determine what tool in your arsenal is appropriate against a given target, though.




​

*3.   Proportionality:*  Only a response proportionate to the perceived level of threat is justified.  Any force used must be limited to the degree, intensity, and duration necessary to achieve the objective for which the force is used and no more   


Source:  LOAC IS3


----------



## Czech_pivo

dapaterson said:


> Fly them to Warsaw, get them a rental, and give them a map to Minsk.


Rentals gotta be a 1980s circa Lada with no heat.


----------



## Czech_pivo

daftandbarmy said:


>


You’re taking the mick outta me, aren’t you!


----------



## kev994

Eye In The Sky said:


> ​
> 
> *3.   Proportionality:*  Only a response proportionate to the perceived level of threat is justified.  Any force used must be limited to the degree, intensity, and duration necessary to achieve the objective for which the force is used and no more
> 
> 
> Source:  LOAC IS3


That means that you can’t shoot them for throwing rocks. But if there doing something where you can shoot them it doesn’t matter if you use a pistol, grenade, or ICBM so long as you account for collateral damage.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498314321138491392
A Russian 2lt can't even get lost without NATO knowing, we have so many eyes on Ukraine.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498438154038263815
Russian supply convoy destroyed mear Kharkiv


----------



## TacticalTea

Eye In The Sky said:


> ​
> 
> *3.   Proportionality:*  Only a response proportionate to the perceived level of threat is justified.  Any force used must be limited to the degree, intensity, and duration necessary to achieve the objective for which the force is used and no more
> 
> 
> Source:  LOAC IS3


You're missing the context, here.

There are no restrictions wrt proportionality for a deliberate strike on a purely military target.


----------



## Eaglelord17

Spencer100 said:


> Too get ahead of myself when the story of this war is written I think the two big themes will be the ISR, data and information flow. The other being the first major Social media war and the PR battle fought.  It this point that social media PR battle is as important as the real battles going on.  It's is amazing to watch the PR, news and social feeds. A leader like Puton has no idea about such things. But an actor as a president does.


Disagree strongly about Putin and PR. Arguably he is one of the most effective leaders in the world at it (even has a strong following outside his country, I have heard people in Canada say they would rather have a leader like Putin before this war started). Things like flying fighter aircraft in Georgia or all the videos of him working out to show how strong he is fall into this catagory. 

What Putin struggles with is the same thing all traditional media groups struggle with, the fact they no longer have to watch your news channels to get their information. His tactics worked very well for several decades, the internet is just at the point now where it isn’t as easy to hide such information from people.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Czech_pivo said:


> You’re taking the mick outta me, aren’t you!



Couldn't help it


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Spencer100 said:


> Too get ahead of myself when the story of this war is written I think the two big themes will be the ISR, data and information flow. The other being the first major Social media war and the PR battle fought.  It this point that social media PR battle is as important as the real battles going on.  It's is amazing to watch the PR, news and social feeds. A leader like Puton has no idea about such things. But an actor as a president does.


The medium is the message.

I have seen more CAF Recruitment Tik Toks in the last 2 weeks than I have seen TV or Radio Ads. Why? Your target audience doesn't watch TV or listen to radio.

Same thing with IA and IO. You can own whatever media you want; if it's not being consumed by the majority of your audience, it's a moot point.

Putin is a smart man, but he's boring. He's a draconian, megalomaniac Boomer who wants to relive his glory days. A bright, young populace in Ukraine gives no fucks listening to the narrative that the Russian Sphere of Influence is best. They see via Instagram, Reddit, and Tik Tok that European life is far better and want that lifestyle more.


----------



## Spencer100

Eaglelord17 said:


> Disagree strongly about Putin and PR. Arguably he is one of the most effective leaders in the world at it (even has a strong following outside his country, I have heard people in Canada say they would rather have a leader like Putin before this war started). Things like flying fighter aircraft in Georgia or all the videos of him working out to show how strong he is fall into this catagory.
> 
> What Putin struggles with is the same thing all traditional media groups struggle with, the fact they no longer have to watch your news channels to get their information. His tactics worked very well for several decades, the internet is just at the point now where it isn’t as easy to hide such information from people.


Yes but I think you made my point.  Let's call this the tik tok war. Putin understands PR from a different time.  This wars is being fought on Tik Tok, Facebook, Instagram etc.as much as on the field of battle.  He is not equipped to understand that.  The strong looking leader in old media of the past looks like a dumb meme now. He is literally being laugh it by the Tok Tok generation.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

kev994 said:


> That means that you can’t shoot them for throwing rocks. But if there doing something where you can shoot them it doesn’t matter if you use a pistol, grenade, or ICBM so long as you account for collateral damage.



That's not how I interpret it or how it's been briefed in/going into a theatre...🤷‍♂️









						Definition of PROPORTIONAL
					

a number or quantity in a proportion… See the full definition




					www.merriam-webster.com


----------



## armrdsoul77

CF training video for M3 Carl Gustaf recoilless rifle.


----------



## Kirkhill

The curious bit about this Kyiv bound convoy - Why is it stopped?  And why does the tailback seem to keep getting longer - making the target juicier and juicier?

It would be lovely to think it's a logistical Carrhae.  Just waiting for the pocket to fill completely?


----------



## Remius

Spencer100 said:


> Yes but I think you made my point.  Let's call this the tik tok war. Putin understands PR from a different time.  This wars is being fought on Tik Tok, Facebook, Instagram etc.as much as on the field of battle.  He is not equipped to understand that.  The strong looking leader in old media of the past looks like a dumb meme now. He is literally being laugh it by the Tok Tok generation.


On that 









						Ukraine is winning — at least in the public relations battle
					

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's social media savvy has helped give Ukraine a fighting chance against the Kremlin’s massive army and disinformation juggernaut.




					www.latimes.com


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> The curious bit about this Kyiv bound convoy - Why is it stopped?  And why does the tailback seem to keep getting longer - making the target juicier and juicier?
> 
> It would be lovely to think it's a logistical Carrhae.  Just waiting for the pocket to fill completely?


Or it's a trap to lure the Ukrainian airforce into a massive AD net


----------



## Eye In The Sky

TacticalTea said:


> You're missing the context, here.
> 
> There are no restrictions wrt proportionality for a deliberate strike on a purely military target.



If I'm missing it, have you provided it or did it slip past me?

I went back thru your posts quickly...I didn't see an obvious 'context'?  But...it's not overly important, in this thread perhaps.


----------



## Kirkhill

Eye In The Sky said:


> That's not how I interpret it or how it's been briefed in/going into a theatre...🤷‍♂️
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Definition of PROPORTIONAL
> 
> 
> a number or quantity in a proportion… See the full definition
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.merriam-webster.com



Infantry - One pair of eyes, two pair of eyes, three pair of eyes, four pair of ....

Navy - One ship, two ships, three ships, four

Air Force and Arty - One grid square, two grid squares, three grid squares, four ...

A different sense of proportion.


----------



## TacticalTea

Eye In The Sky said:


> That's not how I interpret it or how it's been briefed in/going into a theatre...🤷‍♂️
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Definition of PROPORTIONAL
> 
> 
> a number or quantity in a proportion… See the full definition
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.merriam-webster.com


Exactly my point.

If that interpretation was true, though, do you think ''Shock & awe'' would be legal and advertised?

Besides, how do you even know how much force you'll need to attain your objective? It's almost impossible to apply minimal force, cause there are many unknowns, and as Rumsfeld said, unknown unknowns. You can't hope to succeed with only minimal effort.

Edit: About context, I meant, the line you cited lacks context.


----------



## kev994

Eye In The Sky said:


> That's not how I interpret it or how it's been briefed in/going into a theatre...🤷‍♂️
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Definition of PROPORTIONAL
> 
> 
> a number or quantity in a proportion… See the full definition
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.merriam-webster.com


The dictionary isn’t LOAC language, here’s a definition from the Library of Congress specific to LOAC:
 Principle of Proportionality. The test to determine if an attack is proportional is found in AP I, art. 51(5)(b): “[a]n attack which may be expected to cause incidental loss of civilian life, injury to civilians, damage to civilian objects, or a combination thereof, which would be excessive in relation to the concrete and direct military advantage anticipated” violates the principle of proportionality. (See also JP 3-60, appendix E, para. E.2.d.; FM 3-60, para. 2-88). If the target is purely military with no known civilian personnel or property in jeopardy, no proportionality analysis need be conducted. That is a rare circumstance, though.

Source


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Ok...we're going to swim circles in opposite directions on the LOAC topic.  It would be a good discussion in another thread, though!


----------



## Kirkhill

rmc_wannabe said:


> The medium is the message.
> 
> I have seen more CAF Recruitment Tik Toks in the last 2 weeks than I have seen TV or Radio Ads. Why? Your target audience doesn't watch TV or listen to radio.
> 
> Same thing with IA and IO. You can own whatever media you want; if it's not being consumed by the majority of your audience, it's a moot point.
> 
> Putin is a smart man, but he's boring. He's a draconian, megalomaniac Boomer who wants to relive his glory days. A bright, young populace in Ukraine gives no fucks listening to the narrative that the Russian Sphere of Influence is best. They see via Instagram, Reddit, and Tik Tok that European life is far better and want that lifestyle more.


Oy!

Careful with that "Boomer" - Millenial!


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Kirkhill said:


> Oy!
> 
> Careful with that "Boomer" - Millenial!


I said what I said 😜


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Kirkhill said:


> Infantry - One pair of eyes, two pair of eyes, three pair of eyes, four pair of ....
> 
> Navy - One ship, two ships, three ships, four
> 
> Air Force and Arty - One grid square, two grid squares, three grid squares, four ...
> 
> A different sense of proportion.



Ok ok...don't get carried away.

Infantry can't count 😁


----------



## Spencer100

Kirkhill said:


> Oy!
> 
> Careful with that "Boomer" - Millenial!


Once again Gen X is the only source of reason.


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498492690832502786
US intelligence is not feeling too good about the situation.


----------



## FJAG

Spencer100 said:


> Once again Gen X is the only source of reason.



The generation is on track to become the first generation to be worse off in terms of being prepared for retirement than their parents.
Gen Xers believe that they will have a much harder time achieving financial security than their parents (80%), compared to millennials (77%) and baby boomers (73%).
Across the three generations, Generation X is significantly more likely to be carrying credit card debt (52%), millennials are more likely to have student loans (26%), and boomers are more likely to be debt free (25%).
Gen X is the least likely to use a financial advisor (37%), compared to millennials (42%) and baby boomers (45%).
But apparently Gen X is very good at breakdancing.



> Generation X (Gen X): Between Baby Boomers and Millennials
> 
> 
> Generation X was born between the mid-1960s and the early-1980s, after baby boomers and before millennials.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.investopedia.com





> Generation X - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Good2Golf

> Across the three generations, Generation X is significantly more likely to be carrying credit card debt (52%), millennials are more likely to have student loans (26%), and boomers are more likely to be debt free (25%).


----------



## Spencer100

FJAG said:


> The generation is on track to become the first generation to be worse off in terms of being prepared for retirement than their parents.
> Gen Xers believe that they will have a much harder time achieving financial security than their parents (80%), compared to millennials (77%) and baby boomers (73%).
> Across the three generations, Generation X is significantly more likely to be carrying credit card debt (52%), millennials are more likely to have student loans (26%), and boomers are more likely to be debt free (25%).
> Gen X is the least likely to use a financial advisor (37%), compared to millennials (42%) and baby boomers (45%).
> But apparently Gen X is very good at breakdancing.


Army.ca.....the place you throw out a smart ass comment...get a data filled reply with proper references and notations.


----------



## FM07

Unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian sailors scuttled her flagship frigate to avoid capture. Sad to see but better on the seafloor than in Ivan's hands.









						Ukrainian frigate Hetman Sahaidachny - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org


----------



## MilEME09

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498492690832502786
> US intelligence is not feeling too good about the situation.


Given the reported supply issues, can Ivan support such an offensive operation for much longer? Airspace is contested and Ukraine is getting reinforced faster then Russia is pumping in troops. Half the equipment the west has announced I'd probably already being issued, and likely stock piled in Kyiv and other cities to hold out.


----------



## TacticalTea

FM07 said:


> Unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian sailors scuttled her flagship frigate to avoid capture. Sad to see but better on the seafloor than in Ivan's hands.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian frigate Hetman Sahaidachny - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.m.wikipedia.org


At least there is no chance for a repeat of Mers El-Kebir.

In other news: Canada to ban RUS O&G and send Anti-tank weapons

I should keep posting here, it seems everything I bitch about Canada not doing gets done immediately after...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498471913659805700


----------



## MilEME09

TacticalTea said:


> At least there is no chance for a repeat of Mers El-Kebir.
> 
> In other news: Canada to ban RUS O&G and send Anti-tank weapons
> 
> I should keep posting here, it seems everything I bitch about Canada not doing gets done immediately after...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498471913659805700


can you start complaining about our pistols not being replaced, lack of AD, SPG's, and not beig at the 2% of budget? asking for a friend


----------



## blacktriangle

Altair said:


> US intelligence is not feeling too good about the situation.


The same IC that didn't see the collapse of Afghanistan coming so quickly? I'd take their estimates with a grain of salt.

If Ukraine can maintain morale & resolve, I don't see things getting easier for the Russians going forward. Even if it becomes more of an insurgency in some parts, that should be viable as long as weapons & materials can keep finding their ways into the country. Something tells me that the Russians lack experience in int-driven ops, and will have difficultly targeting human networks in any surgical manner.


----------



## RedFive

MilEME09 said:


> can you start complaining about our pistols not being replaced, lack of AD, SPG's, and not beig at the 2% of budget? asking for a friend


Seconded.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498510963565383680
Russian accuracy at its finest, no wonder they are having issues


----------



## KevinB

kev994 said:


> That means that you can’t shoot them for throwing rocks. But if there doing something where you can shoot them it doesn’t matter if you use a pistol, grenade, or ICBM so long as you account for collateral damage.


You totally can shoot rock throwers FWIW


----------



## blacktriangle

Just saw a kid on Reddit - decked out in multicam, with Cdn flag & medic patch. Claims to have sat in on a day of medical training, now posting selfies from Ukraine...


----------



## OldSolduer

KevinB said:


> You totally can shoot rock throwers FWIW


Yes you can. Rocks tossed aren’t always small and in some cases can kill ie large rocks dropped from an overpass onto vehicles can kill.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498518259016032256
The int game continues, could NATO be now helping coordinate Ukrainian air power?


----------



## Furniture

blacktriangle said:


> Just saw a kid on Reddit - decked out in multicam, with Cdn flag & medic patch. Claims to have sat in on a day of medical training, now posting selfies from Ukraine...


There will always be a segment of the population that want's adventure, and will sign up for this sort of thing.

If I was young, in a dead end career, and unattached, I'd be seriously considering heading over... We all die from something, might as well be something of our own choosing. 

Alas, I'm old, in a stable career, and have already had my adventure in a foreign war.


----------



## blacktriangle

Furniture said:


> There will always be a segment of the population that want's adventure, and will sign up for this sort of thing.
> 
> If I was young, in a dead end career, and unattached, I'd be seriously considering heading over... We all die from something, might as well be something of our own choosing.
> 
> Alas, I'm old, in a stable career, and have already had my adventure in a foreign war.


For sure. 

I just hope they give the volunteers a quick OPSEC brief or something...


----------



## MilEME09

blacktriangle said:


> For sure.
> 
> I just hope they give the volunteers a quick OPSEC brief or something...


----------



## GK .Dundas

My great fear is that once he is.finished with Ukraine the Baltic states are next. NATO not withstanding.
Perhaps we should be a.see bit more concerned about what we (Canada) are going to.do about our defences.
This is all predicated on Putin being.able to take down Ukraine first.


----------



## Altair

GK .Dundas said:


> My great fear is that once he is.finished with Ukraine the Baltic states are next. NATO not withstanding.
> Perhaps we should be a.see bit more concerned about what we (Canada) are going to.do about our defences.
> This is all predicated on Putin being.able to take down Ukraine first.


Even in a purely conventional war, Russia would be slaughtered


----------



## rmc_wannabe

GK .Dundas said:


> My great fear is that once he is.finished with Ukraine the Baltic states are next. NATO not withstanding.
> Perhaps we should be a.see bit more concerned about what we (Canada) are going to.do about our defences.
> This is all predicated on Putin being.able to take down Ukraine first.


A conventional attack by Russia on any NATO nation would be like a Townie picking a bar fight with a CAF Member: Service, Branch, Regiment, Battalion rivalries are pushed to the side and we're helping out in numbers and force. 

Even if it's the annoying little brother, he's your annoying little brother. You don't mess with family.


----------



## Furniture

GK .Dundas said:


> My great fear is that once he is.finished with Ukraine the Baltic states are next. NATO not withstanding.
> Perhaps we should be a.see bit more concerned about what we (Canada) are going to.do about our defences.
> This is all predicated on Putin being.able to take down Ukraine first.


Unfortunately, we are one famous celebrity death away from this being "international" news, and completely forgotten by Canadians. 

I predict that much like Afghanistan, this will be an inconvenience in people's minds soon enough, and they will get back to worrying about what's happening in the latest season of (insert dumb show here).


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498522379450044419


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498544825062375434
We are entering "that stage" of this conflict


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498544825062375434
> We are entering "that stage" of this conflict


Thats deplorable.

When do we get to let NATO Air Superiority out of it's cage?


----------



## Altair

rmc_wannabe said:


> Thats deplorable.
> 
> When do we get to let NATO Air Superiority out of it's cage?


When nukes are flying.


----------



## Prairie canuck

The time is fast approaching where parts of the Russian leadership and those who are loosing billions decide enough is enough. Putin's leadership will come to an end with a violent coup or a silent injection.


----------



## tomydoom

Prairie canuck said:


> The time is fast approaching where parts of the Russian leadership and those who are loosing billions decide enough is enough. Putin's leadership will come to an end with a violent coup or a silent injection.


I hope you’re right. That is the best case scenario.


----------



## Altair

Boris Johnson just asked about a no fly zone.

Said that it would involve UK fighters shooting down Russian planes which would lead to unacceptable results.

So I guess that is that. If the most hawkish european nation doesnt want to touch that, nobody is.


----------



## The Bread Guy

EnchantedEng said:


> I dunno. Should I believe everything CBC writes either? ...


Tell ya what - I'll post links of articles where the CBC criticizes Canadian government actions while you share RT pieces criticizing Russian government action.  Then we can see who's _really_ bought and paid for. I could be missing all those RT pieces slamming Putin & Co. for corruption and human rights abuses, though, so I stand to be corrected 

And the enlistment stories begin ...








						Man plans return to Ukraine to join resistance forces against Russia
					

Oleh Hlyniailiuk, a Ukrainian man living in Vancouver, says he can no longer stand idly by while Russian forces kill innocent civilians and attack the sovereignty his friends and family are fighting to keep alive.




					vancouversun.com
				











						Canadian soccer player enlists in Ukrainian army
					

A former Winnipegger and Canadian soccer player has enlisted in the Ukrainian army to fight in the war against Russia.




					winnipeg.ctvnews.ca
				











						Americans, Canadians answer Ukraine call for foreign fighters
					

A Texas software developer and a cook in British Columbia are among dozens of Americans and Canadians answering Ukraine's call for foreign volunteers to fight Russia's invasion.




					www.reuters.com
				











						Some Canadians want to answer Ukraine's call for foreign fighters
					

Canada's Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly said Sunday the choices to go fight were 'individual decisions'




					nationalpost.com
				





			https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/as-it-happens-the-monday-edition-1.6367495/why-a-canadian-comedian-is-heading-to-ukraine-to-fight-against-russia-1.6367623


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498562553240342529


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498551511445553158
Latest from the UK MOD


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498619317566328835


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498619303717142529
This thread explains a lot of the issues with their comms.

Comms not working or out of range
Using civi radios and cell phones
Lack of leadership


----------



## KevinB

Not at all the first one either....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498519894169722881


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some Polish-based think tank analysis








						Ukraine-Russia War: Russian Vulnerabilities On Southern Front
					

In the case of an invasion of Ukraine, Russia will be conducting its largest combined arms operation since the Battle of Berlin in 1945. As the first days of the war showed, the Russian army overestimated its capabilities while underestimating those of the enemy. This is not new for Russia. It...




					warsawinstitute.org
				











						Ukraine-Russia War: Russian Vulnerabilities On Southeastern Front
					

The Russia-Ukraine war has in fact continued in Donbas since 2014. After the Kremlin officially recognized the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics in war-torn eastern Ukraine, it could have seemed that these two will turn into the military theater. Yet Putin decided otherwise...




					warsawinstitute.org
				











						Ukraine-Russia War: Russian Vulnerabilities On Northeastern Front
					

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is not moving as fast as Putin had assumed. It is not known whether the army was not sufficiently prepared or whether Russian top military brass did not want to tell the president they were unfit for the invasion. Perhaps the Russian offensive potential is not as...




					warsawinstitute.org
				











						As Fight Moves Into Its Fifth Day, Russia Makes Surprisingly Slow Invasion Progress
					

During the first days of the invasion, Russian forces failed to capture any major cities. In fact, they are bypassing them while seeking to capture Ukraine's two biggest cities, albeit each for a different reason. Russia is seeking to besiege the eastern city of Kharkiv because its forces cannot...




					warsawinstitute.org


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498636116982906882


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Remius said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498619303717142529
> This thread explains a lot of the issues with their comms.
> 
> Comms not working or out of range
> Using civi radios and cell phones
> Lack of leadership


Combat Arms colleagues: "Comms is an afterthought. Give me a bigger gun and more ammo."

_C5ISR failure by Russia in Ukraine_

Me: "Would be awful nice if all those big guns could coordinate with one another, eh?"


----------



## Eye In The Sky

rmc_wannabe said:


> Thats deplorable.
> 
> When do we get to let NATO Air Superiority out of it's cage?



Ask them:  NATO Allied Air Command


----------



## Remius

rmc_wannabe said:


> Combat Arms colleagues: "Comms is an afterthought. Give me a bigger gun and more ammo."
> 
> _C5ISR failure by Russia in Ukraine_
> 
> Me: "Would be awful nice if all those big guns could coordinate with one another, eh?"


I can assure you that the cry for functional and effective radios has been going on for some time in Combat arms units.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Remius said:


> I can assure you that the cry for functional and effective radios has been going on for some time in Combat arms units.


It's been screams from within the RCCS. I remember being told at a Townhall in 2010 by Gen Natynchuk that we needed to get the new platforms first before we start looking at new comms suites.

 After I suggested adding a new comms suite to the platform and rolling it into the same project, I was told "good idea" and yanked down into my seat by my CoC.


----------



## OldSolduer

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498636116982906882


I have an issue with people that say dropping a 500 pounder or dropping multiple rounds of 155 onto a target as a "surgical" strike. There isn't anything "surgical" about it. Just my opinion.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498605347967221762

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498465017355812870


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498642229237276672


----------



## KevinB

One wonders if this is closer to the truth than planned 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498648544118464513


----------



## FormerHorseGuard

KevinB said:


> Not at all the first one either....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498519894169722881


not big on Russian Tanks, but what are the barrels or tanks at the rear of the tank?  fuel tanks? or?


----------



## QV

KevinB said:


> One wonders if this is closer to the truth than planned
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498648544118464513


No doubt “ the July plot” is on his mind… bet there are a couple shooters over his shoulders too.


----------



## MilEME09

FormerHorseGuard said:


> not big on Russian Tanks, but what are the barrels or tanks at the rear of the tank?  fuel tanks? or?


External fuel, it's a key feature of the T72, in order to increase its range


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> One wonders if this is closer to the truth than planned
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498648544118464513


Hmmmm, more "don't sit toooooooooooooooooooooooooooo near me" photos - might feed some speculation about, say, Howard Hughes levels of worry about greeblies/his health (and I don't mean the risk of "hi-velocity lead poisoning")?


----------



## Remius

The Bread Guy said:


> Hmmmm, more "don't sit toooooooooooooooooooooooooooo near me" photos - might feed some speculation about, say, Howard Hughes levels of worry about greeblies/his health (and I don't mean the risk of "hi-velocity lead poisoning")?


Hey, for all we know those generals just got a dose of Polonium and Putin is keeping his distance while getting their final report.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Remius said:


> Hey, for all we know those generals just got a dose of Polonium and Putin is keeping his distance while getting their final report.


And I do mean _final_.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498562553240342529


SHould be all yellow with black markings, like the other generic stuff in the supermarket ...


----------



## GK .Dundas

Eye In The Sky said:


> Ask them:  NATO Allied Air Command





The Bread Guy said:


> Hmmmm, more "don't sit toooooooooooooooooooooooooooo near me" photos - might feed some speculation about, say, Howard Hughes levels of worry about greeblies/his health (and I don't mean the risk of "hi-velocity lead poisoning")?


Yes  there is always the possibility of an Albanian cabinet shuffle.


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> SHould be all yellow with black markings, like the other generic stuff in the supermarket ...


What isle at no frills are mig29s?


----------



## Eye In The Sky

MilEME09 said:


> External fuel, it's a key feature of the T72, in order to increase its range



Yes, but not only the T-72...they've been used on many of their tanks.  It's, generally, not used as a hard rec feature because they can be taken off.  Always better to stick to the principles of HATS, WEFT, etc for RECCE/AFV-AC rec.









						T-62
					

The T-62 is a Soviet main battle tank, a further development of the T-55. Its 115 mm gun was the first smoothbore tank gun in use. The T-62 was produced between 1961 and 1975. It became a standard tank in the Soviet arsenal, partly replacing the T-55, although that tank continued to be...




					military-history.fandom.com


----------



## KevinB

Eye In The Sky said:


> Yes, but not only the T-72...they've been used on many of their tanks.  It's, generally, not used as a hard rec feature because they can be taken off.  Always better to stick to the principles of HATS, WEFT, etc for RECCE/AFV-AC rec.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> T-62
> 
> 
> The T-62 is a Soviet main battle tank, a further development of the T-55. Its 115 mm gun was the first smoothbore tank gun in use. The T-62 was produced between 1961 and 1975. It became a standard tank in the Soviet arsenal, partly replacing the T-55, although that tank continued to be...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> military-history.fandom.com


When your supply lines tend to suck and also sell ‘excess’ fuel, often carry several flammable drums on one’s vehicle seems reasonable.   Plus you can also drop them in a ditch (with the often carried obstacle log) to either help fill the ditch (or to come back and sell later).


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> What isle at no frills are mig29s?


Apparently L27 
    Fueled and ready.


----------



## ArmyRick

Just curious as to what some of my army.ca peers think of my own observations.

I look at NATO leaders and see what amounts to half committed measures. Sanctions, refugee assistance, arms shipping to the Ukraine, etc.

Is it me or this alarmingly similar to 1939 ish? Look at how the USA for example tried to stay out of the second world war somewhat and than a raw brutal attack on Pearl Harbour forced the USA to commit. 

Looking at how hard and determined Putin is to smash the Ukraine, I have mixed feelings about NATO saying enough and attacking. 

I see it as basically the third world war (that many of us who saw the 70s and 80s were maybe lured into false hope with the tearing down of the Berlin Wall?) starting. It would be massive casualties but at the same time, how does NATO ignore this brutal onslaught?

No simple answers for sure. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498634158943477761


----------



## KevinB

ArmyRick said:


> Just curious as to what some of my army.ca peers think of my own observations.
> 
> I look at NATO leaders and see what amounts to half committed measures. Sanctions, refugee assistance, arms shipping to the Ukraine, etc.
> 
> Is it me or this alarmingly similar to 1939 ish? Look at how the USA for example tried to stay out of the second world war somewhat and than a raw brutal attack on Pearl Harbour forced the USA to commit.
> 
> Looking at how hard and determined Putin is to smash the Ukraine, I have mixed feelings about NATO saying enough and attacking.
> 
> I see it as basically the third world war (that many of us who saw the 70s and 80s were maybe lured into false hope with the tearing down of the Berlin Wall?) starting. It would be massive casualties but at the same time, how does NATO ignore this brutal onslaught?
> 
> No simple answers for sure. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.


NATO just needs to go to CQ and sign for a spine. 

Appeasement just makes things worse. 
   NATO should have rolled into Ukraine a month ago and pushed up to the occupied areas.  Now the difference is that now it’s a pretty United world supporting UKR and only the satrap Belarus standing with Vlad Hitler 

Poland, Latvia, Romania etc that donated their old Mig and SU aircraft pushed over one of Purim’s lines.  

Right now it is simply a question as to when it occurs and what is the ‘snap’ point of NATO’s restraint.  

1) Will a limited entry to the conflict to neutralize Russian and Belarusian assets in UKR work best?   It would need to be explained in advance to attempt to minimize the chance of a Russian escalation.   

2) Would a surprise strike against Russian nuclear assets - with JSOC and other NATO Tier 1 personnel, and stealth AC precision munition strikes to neutralize/control  be a better move? 

Number 2 is obviously a major risk and a whole different level of game.


----------



## MilEME09

I think we need to take Belarus out of the picture, hit missile launch sites, C2, and airbase.


----------



## Remius

KevinB said:


> 2) Would a surprise strike against Russian nuclear assets - with JSOC and other NATO Tier 1 personnel, and stealth AC precision munition strikes to neutralize/control  be a better move?
> 
> Number 2 is obviously a major risk and a whole different level of game.


Is that even feasible?  How would you deal with the subs?  It only takes one off the US coast to respond.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> I think we need to take Belarus out of the picture, hit missile launch sites, C2, and airbase.


Minsk Spring reformation…


----------



## KevinB

Remius said:


> Is that even feasible?  How would you deal with the subs?  It only takes one off the US coast to respond.


Everything has a contingency.  

Subs -would get sunk, this is a premeditated first strike.  
 THAAD on stand by if there is an failure to neutralize. 
Portable Systems seizure or destruction. 
Fixed Sites - seal/collapse 

I’m not suggesting this COA FWIW.  I think it’s a bridge way too far at this point. 

Back in 2002 when it was looked at to what it would take to contain the North Korean Nuclear assets, which are considerably less than RU it was quite doable.


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> NATO just needs to go to CQ and sign for a spine.
> 
> Appeasement just makes things worse.
> NATO should have rolled into Ukraine a month ago and pushed up to the occupied areas.  Now the difference is that now it’s a pretty United world supporting UKR and only the satrap Belarus standing with Vlad Hitler
> 
> 1) Will a limited entry to the conflict to neutralize Russian and Belarusian assets in UKR work best?   It would need to be explained in advance to attempt to minimize the chance of a Russian escalation.


There is no love in the history books for Chamberlain and the like, that's for sure.

It is revolting to me that NATO has not delineated any red lines.

What if they start genociding Ukrainians? Would we still sit by the sidelines? That scenario may seem far-fetched but Putin literally said Ukrainian identity doesn't and shouldn't exist.


----------



## NavyShooter

So....one of the things that the Russians have been historically very good at is Maskirovka.  

To this point, they have shown the world a picture of poorly led, poorly equipped, poorly supplied troops.  

Has that been a maskirovka to hide the coming attack by this big column?  Is that column actually a fully equipped, well trained, fully supplied convoy of soldiers ready to win the day?  Has the lack of 'first rate' troops and air cover been done to get the West to commit to supporting Ukraine in this theater, put forces and equipment into play here that will distract from another site? (Taiwan?) 

With all the promises of help, aid, AT weapons and AD weapons...there's going to be a lag between when they were promised, and when they end up in use on the front lines.  Is this column designed to get the Ukraine people's hopes up, get the West's forces committed, then cut it all off at the knees before it comes to fruition, proving that the West is a weak/poor potential ally?

As important as the ISR capabilities are, and the breadth of information coming out practically real-time is amazing, it leaves me wondering - what are we missing?  The Russians can't actually be THIS BAD can they?

NS


----------



## HiTechComms

MilEME09 said:


> I think we need to take Belarus out of the picture, hit missile launch sites, C2, and airbase.


Except if they have a mutual defense pact with Russia and any move by NATO is WW3.  Unless a NATO country acts on its own and attacks Belarus which wouldn't trigger Article 5. Then Russia would be at war with that country. I mentioned this and was attacked for it.
Russians have protected them selves, the chances of actions are greatly tempered by the threat of escalation.

There is no way Belarus will be attacked.  Problem with them is they declared they are a non nuclear country now and can allow Russian nukes. I am sure lots of countries on the Belarus border are thrilled by this.

The west can only do what it can through non interventionist actions.

Russia will not blink they are driven by an Ideology and an ideologue, they will not back down now. There is a fundamental misunderstanding in the west of people and cultures that are driven by this. Just look at Afghanistan. If you want to change that culture its a 100 year occupation.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Remius said:


> Is that even feasible?  How would you deal with the subs?  It only takes one off the US coast to respond.



ASW, or maybe more accurately, maintenance of SA on adversary subs is one of those "always quietly happening in the background" activities.

The Ohio, Vanguards etc are also on their deterrent missions so quietly and effectively no one seems to think of them.


----------



## KevinB

NavyShooter said:


> So....one of the things that the Russians have been historically very good at is Maskirovka.
> 
> To this point, they have shown the world a picture of poorly led, poorly equipped, poorly supplied troops.
> 
> Has that been a maskirovka to hide the coming attack by this big column?  Is that column actually a fully equipped, well trained, fully supplied convoy of soldiers ready to win the day?  Has the lack of 'first rate' troops and air cover been done to get the West to commit to supporting Ukraine in this theater, put forces and equipment into play here that will distract from another site? (Taiwan?)
> 
> With all the promises of help, aid, AT weapons and AD weapons...there's going to be a lag between when they were promised, and when they end up in use on the front lines.  Is this column designed to get the Ukraine people's hopes up, get the West's forces committed, then cut it all off at the knees before it comes to fruition, proving that the West is a weak/poor potential ally?
> 
> As important as the ISR capabilities are, and the breadth of information coming out practically real-time is amazing, it leaves me wondering - what are we missing?  The Russians can't actually be THIS BAD can they?
> 
> NS


Their Elite 1st Guards is bogged down in an Urban battle.


NLAW and Javelin are being used already.
A "concerted effort" is being used to ruin Russian C2 +
No effort has been made to hide that former WP Aircraft have been 'given' by NATO countries and used against Russian forces.

The Terrain and Weather for this offense is awful - no Military analysis would have supported this timing - it should have been done a month + ago.

My take aways:
Russia was supremely overconfident 
Russia had taken a lot of incorrect lessons learned from Syria 
Russia had undervalued the effectiveness of NLAW, Javelin, Stinger and some other provided equipment.
Russia ignored the terrain implications.
Ukrainian fighting spirit was woefully undervalued by EVERYONE (myself included)


----------



## HiTechComms

TacticalTea said:


> There is no love in the history books for Chamberlain and the like, that's for sure.
> 
> It is revolting to me that NATO has not delineated any red lines.
> 
> What if they start genociding Ukrainians? Would we still sit by the sidelines? That scenario may seem far-fetched but Putin literally said Ukrainian identity doesn't and shouldn't exist.


I hope it will never result in that but what are the costs we would be willing to pay to stop it.  Uighyrs, Rohinga, issue. No one in the west has the appetite for this.

On the other hand the West is sure jumping the shark by having public figures advocate, deportations, striping of property, and ejecting Russian ethnic people from the west. Seriously this is fucked up. West played around internment camps (hyperbolic)are they willing go that route again. Its quite disheartening. Guilt by association(race) is not morally or ethically tolerable. 

Remember then vitriol against Muslims and certain races after 911?


----------



## The Bread Guy

This from UKR's MoD info-machine about allegedly upcoming info op claiming UKR govt surrender (Google English) ...


> There will be no surrender! Only victory! - Alexey Reznikov addressed to Ukrainians​
> 
> 4 hours ago | *ID: 66737*
> 
> 
> "Dear Ukrainians!
> 
> 128 hours of defense.
> 
> According to available data, the Russian occupiers are preparing to launch a large-scale information and psychological operation in the near future.
> 
> Its goal is to break the resistance of the Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian army with the help of lies.
> 
> Initially, they plan to disconnect.
> 
> After that, there will be a lot of fake reports that the Ukrainian military-political leadership seems to have agreed to surrender.
> 
> Supposedly signed "documents", as well as edited fake videos will be distributed to "confirm" this fake.
> 
> THIS IS A LIE. Can't wait!
> 
> There will be no surrender! Only victory!
> 
> Warn everyone you can.
> 
> Many of those who expected to take Kyiv in 2-3 days are already in hell.
> 
> Let's hold the weapon firmly! We continue to resist!
> 
> Glory to Ukraine! ”


Original in Ukrainian


----------



## The Bread Guy

HiTechComms said:


> ... ejecting Russian ethnic people from the west ...


Have there been (to use a charged term) ethnic cleansings I haven't heard/read about?  The only "Russian ethnic" people I'm hearing about being "ejected" is Russian diplomats, but as always, I stand to be corrected.


----------



## FM07

HiTechComms said:


> On the other hand the West is sure jumping the shark by having public figures advocate, deportations, striping of property, and ejecting Russian ethnic people from the west. Seriously this is fucked up. West played around internment camps are they willing go that route again. Its quite disheartening. Guilt by association(race) is not morally or ethically tolerable.


Highly disagree. We want people associated with Putin and his evil regime expelled, not just because people are Russian. To imply we are doing this is dishonest.


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> I hope it will never result in that but what are the costs we would be willing to pay to stop it.  Uighyrs, Rohinga, issue. No one in the west has the appetite for this.
> 
> On the other hand the West is sure jumping the shark by having public figures advocate, deportations, striping of property, and ejecting Russian ethnic people from the west. Seriously this is fucked up. West played around internment camps are they willing go that route again. Its quite disheartening. Guilt by association(race) is not morally or ethically tolerable.


You keep using the expression “jumping the shark”.   I don’t think it means what you think it means. 









						Jumping the shark - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org
				





Internement camps?  For what?  Easy answer is no.


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Have there been (to use a charged term) ethnic cleansings I haven't heard/read about?  The only "Russian ethnic" people I'm hearing about being "ejected" is Russian diplomats, but as always, I stand to be corrected.


Congrats you found the Russian Mole


----------



## HiTechComms

KevinB said:


> Their Elite 1st Guards is bogged down in an Urban battle.
> 
> 
> NLAW and Javelin are being used already.
> A "concerted effort" is being used to ruin Russian C2 +
> No effort has been made to hide that former WP Aircraft have been 'given' by NATO countries and used against Russian forces.
> 
> The Terrain and Weather for this offense is awful - no Military analysis would have supported this timing - it should have been done a month + ago.
> 
> My take aways:
> Russia was supremely overconfident
> Russia had taken a lot of incorrect lessons learned from Syria
> Russia had undervalued the effectiveness of NLAW, Javelin, Stinger and some other provided equipment.
> Russia ignored the terrain implications.
> Ukrainian fighting spirit was woefully undervalued by EVERYONE (myself included)


As much as I want to agree with this assessment I think the Russians know exactly what they are doing. This is a Russian doctrine on loss of life in the armed forces since forever.

I think Russians are minimizing the destruction as much as they can.. Why would you want to level everything if you want to take over the country. Allies in WW2 had the same directives of destruction of property. It is also bad optics, and if Russia doesn't take over Ukraine it doesn't want a rogue state either.

Its also been less then a Week. Look at the USA Iraq invasion, the fighting didn't stop for a long time. Hopefully this will end soon with peace talks before more life is lost.


----------



## Kirkhill

Never mind!  Beaten to the punch.


----------



## HiTechComms

The Bread Guy said:


> Have there been (to use a charged term) ethnic cleansings I haven't heard/read about?  The only "Russian ethnic" people I'm hearing about being "ejected" is Russian diplomats, but as always, I stand to be corrected.











						Eric Swalwell proposes 'kicking out' all Russian students from American universities
					

"Vladimir Putin needs to know every day that he is in Ukraine, there are more severe options that could come," Swalwell said




					meaww.com
				




I have no idea how you guys completely forgot about lots of people wanting to eject brown/religion people because of 911.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498664219692212226


----------



## Czech_pivo

HiTechComms said:


> Except if they have a mutual defense pact with Russia and any move by NATO is WW3.  Unless a NATO country acts on its own and attacks Belarus which wouldn't trigger Article 5. Then Russia would be at war with that country. I mentioned this and was attacked for it.
> Russians have protected them selves, the chances of actions are greatly tempered by the threat of escalation.
> 
> There is no way Belarus will be attacked.  Problem with them is they declared they are a non nuclear country now and can allow Russian nukes. I am sure lots of countries on the Belarus border are thrilled by this.
> 
> The west can only do what it can through non interventionist actions.
> 
> Russia will not blink they are driven by an Ideology and an ideologue, they will not back down now. There is a fundamental misunderstanding in the west of people and cultures that are driven by this. Just look at Afghanistan. If you want to change that culture its a 100 year occupation.


Big differences, massive differences, between Russia/Belarus and Afghanistan - lets see - education, religion, cultural, ability to travel throughout 'the west', familial ties to western countries (Canada, UK, Israel, US, Germany), infrasture, advanced heavy industry, ability to create/launch satellites, spacecraft, space stations, ability to actually feed its people and provide health care and services. 

They are not the same in any of those areas.

The only thing, and yes its a big thing, that they have in common, is the fact that historically Russia/Belarus and Afghanistan have all been ruled by Dictators, Communists or Absolute Divine Rulers and have ZERO experience with democracy.  They have been lied to for their entire lives.  Generation after generation. They have been feed the myth that they are the victims.  They share all of this with the Serbs, who have been feed the same myths for centuries. 

Empower the people, free the media, institute a fair, consistently impartial judicial system and elected individuals and ensure that these things are stable for a generation and you'll tangible results.


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> Eric Swalwell proposes 'kicking out' all Russian students from American universities
> 
> 
> "Vladimir Putin needs to know every day that he is in Ukraine, there are more severe options that could come," Swalwell said
> 
> 
> 
> 
> meaww.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I have no idea how you guys completely forgot about lots of people wanting to eject brown/religion people because of 911.


Sending Russian Nationals home?    Yeah and? They are here under our rules,  if they aren’t citizens or residents then they can be sent home for any reason.


----------



## KevinB

The top U.S. diplomat questions whether Russia should remain on the U.N. human rights council.
					






					www.nytimes.com


----------



## HiTechComms

Remius said:


> You keep using the expression “jumping the shark”.   I don’t think it means what you think it means.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Jumping the shark - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.m.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Internement camps?  For what?  Easy answer is no.


Being Hyperbolic. But if you think anti-russian bias will not develop in the west because of this is a simply ignorant.

Again being hyperbolic and lack of nuance on the internet.. I am the pro russian according to you.

F Focus
A Authority
T Tribe
E Emotions

If you are being effected by one of these vectors of manipulation then you have a problem.


Remius said:


> Sending Russian Nationals home?    Yeah and? They are here under our rules,  if they aren’t citizens or residents then they can be sent home for any reason.


Are you serious? Should we eject Afghani people because of Afghanistan.  Holy Eff. I don't like what you country is doing so get the eff out even if these people did nothing?


----------



## Kirkhill

HiTechComms said:


> Except if they have a mutual defense pact with Russia and any move by NATO is WW3.  Unless a NATO country acts on its own and attacks Belarus which wouldn't trigger Article 5. Then Russia would be at war with that country. I mentioned this and was attacked for it.
> Russians have protected them selves, the chances of actions are greatly tempered by the threat of escalation.
> 
> There is no way Belarus will be attacked.  Problem with them is they declared they are a non nuclear country now and can allow Russian nukes. I am sure lots of countries on the Belarus border are thrilled by this.
> 
> The west can only do what it can through non interventionist actions.
> 
> Russia will not blink they are driven by an Ideology and an ideologue, they will not back down now. There is a fundamental misunderstanding in the west of people and cultures that are driven by this. Just look at Afghanistan. If you want to change that culture its a 100 year occupation.



Question for you HTC

Is it not reasonable to make a distinction between Vladimir and his Button, on the one hand, and Russia, on the other?  And also between the Boyars and the people?


----------



## tomydoom

HiTechComms said:


> Eric Swalwell proposes 'kicking out' all Russian students from American universities
> 
> 
> "Vladimir Putin needs to know every day that he is in Ukraine, there are more severe options that could come," Swalwell said
> 
> 
> 
> 
> meaww.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I have no idea how you guys completely forgot about lots of people wanting to eject brown/religion people because of 911.


I have no idea who that politician is, however expelling enemy nationals is normal practice.  Expelling Canadians or Americans because they are ethnically Russian WOULD be unethical and I do not believe anyone is seriously proposing that.

I DO remember nutjobs ranting to expel all brown  or muslim people after 911.  What I also remember is a parade of politicians of all stripes, saying that suggesting such was unacceptable.  You're being a bit of a troll on this, to be honest.


----------



## Eaglelord17

ArmyRick said:


> Just curious as to what some of my army.ca peers think of my own observations.
> 
> I look at NATO leaders and see what amounts to half committed measures. Sanctions, refugee assistance, arms shipping to the Ukraine, etc.
> 
> Is it me or this alarmingly similar to 1939 ish? Look at how the USA for example tried to stay out of the second world war somewhat and than a raw brutal attack on Pearl Harbour forced the USA to commit.
> 
> Looking at how hard and determined Putin is to smash the Ukraine, I have mixed feelings about NATO saying enough and attacking.
> 
> I see it as basically the third world war (that many of us who saw the 70s and 80s were maybe lured into false hope with the tearing down of the Berlin Wall?) starting. It would be massive casualties but at the same time, how does NATO ignore this brutal onslaught?
> 
> No simple answers for sure. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.


Not quite. There was a distinct difference between Germany (and the USSR, everyone always forgets them) invading Poland and now. The difference being the European main empires saw Germany as a threat to their standing (if it was truly about defending Poland they would have declared war on the USSR as well and ensured Poland was liberated by the end of the war). Can’t build a empire without taking it from someone else and by that point in time most the world was colonized by mainly Britain and France.

Even Japan getting the US involved was only a reaction to the US basically cutting off their oil supply. Had Pearl Harbour worked as planned the Pacific Theatre would have been very different battlefield. 

All the Axis powers were late comers to the empire game (Germany wasn’t a country until 1870s, Italy as well, Japan didn’t come out of isolation until the same time period, the Balkans nations all were fairly new with the slow destruction of the Ottoman Empire, etc.), hence the need to take it from someone else.

I wouldn’t say Russia is a truly a threat to the international community (other than the threat of Nukes, but they are mainly using it as a deterrent). It is a terrible thing they are doing, but that doesn’t mean this is a springboard for taking over Europe, rather they likely see it as a way to protect themselves from a increasingly hostile to their regime West.

This doesn’t mean we shouldn’t do what we can to help Ukraine but realistically it is a regional conflict, just the first serious one between two modern nations since 1982.


----------



## Altair

NavyShooter said:


> So....one of the things that the Russians have been historically very good at is Maskirovka.
> 
> To this point, they have shown the world a picture of poorly led, poorly equipped, poorly supplied troops.
> 
> Has that been a maskirovka to hide the coming attack by this big column?  Is that column actually a fully equipped, well trained, fully supplied convoy of soldiers ready to win the day?  Has the lack of 'first rate' troops and air cover been done to get the West to commit to supporting Ukraine in this theater, put forces and equipment into play here that will distract from another site? (Taiwan?)
> 
> With all the promises of help, aid, AT weapons and AD weapons...there's going to be a lag between when they were promised, and when they end up in use on the front lines.  Is this column designed to get the Ukraine people's hopes up, get the West's forces committed, then cut it all off at the knees before it comes to fruition, proving that the West is a weak/poor potential ally?
> 
> As important as the ISR capabilities are, and the breadth of information coming out practically real-time is amazing, it leaves me wondering - what are we missing?  The Russians can't actually be THIS BAD can they?
> 
> NS


I was looking for the feint, repeatedly, for the first 3 days. 

And if not feint, then the strategy of attacking on all fronts and reinforcing where you are doing well.  But neither of these are true. This isn't a feint, they didn't try to fail to take Kiev to attack somewhere else with greater success, like Donbass, Kharkiv or in the south. They happen to have achieved more of a breakthrough in the south, but even then they are not exploiting it to any great measure. 

So that leave reinforcing where they are doing well. There is only one place they are doing well, in the south. They are bogged down near Kharkiv, they haven't made any great gains near the Donbass, and the attack of Kiev has been a bloody grind. So it would have made the most sense to reinforce the south, keep the pressure on near Kiev, and cut off a lot Ukrainian units in the east.  Instead they are trying to brute force their way to Kiev.

With reports of troops running out of gas, food, ammunition, its clear that the longer this goes on the worse the situation gets for the Russian army so trying to grind down the Ukrainians over the long term probably wasn't the plan either. 

So that leaves the most obvious answer as the most likely answer. The Russian army is actually that bad. Which is another really bad outcome for Russia. Their intimidation comes from two things, their nuclear power and the supposed strength of their military. The latter is turning into a laughingstock. It's unimaginable to picture western NATO soldiers abandoning their vehicles due to lack of fuel, having to scavenge for food, or breaking down in tears over citizens yelling at them. Its hard to imagine NATO not knocking out the enemies Air force or AD systems in the event of any conflict. Everyone, including myself, probably thought of the Russian army as a near peer rival, but their utter lack of professionalism shown here shows they are just big. Not insignificant, but a far way from being able to threaten NATO. There is no way the Russians wanted to show this image of their military to the world.


----------



## Kirkhill

HiTechComms said:


> I hope it will never result in that but what are the costs we would be willing to pay to stop it.  Uighyrs, Rohinga, issue. No one in the west has the appetite for this.
> 
> On the other hand the West is sure jumping the shark by having public figures advocate, deportations, striping of property, and ejecting Russian ethnic people from the west. Seriously this is fucked up. West played around internment camps (hyperbolic)are they willing go that route again. Its quite disheartening. Guilt by association(race) is not morally or ethically tolerable.
> 
> Remember then vitriol against Muslims and certain races after 911?



I also remember the Tatars of the Crimea









						Deportation of the Crimean Tatars - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## The Bread Guy

HiTechComms said:


> Eric Swalwell proposes 'kicking out' all Russian students from American universities
> 
> 
> "Vladimir Putin needs to know every day that he is in Ukraine, there are more severe options that could come," Swalwell said
> 
> 
> 
> 
> meaww.com


First I've heard of this - thanks.


HiTechComms said:


> I have no idea how you guys completely forgot about lots of people wanting to eject brown/religion people because of 911.


And, like *tomydoom*, I, too remember such calls, as well as "ya know, they didn't ALL fly the planes into those buildings."


----------



## Altair

HiTechComms said:


> I hope it will never result in that but what are the costs we would be willing to pay to stop it.  Uighyrs, Rohinga, issue. No one in the west has the appetite for this.
> 
> On the other hand the West is sure jumping the shark by having public figures advocate, deportations, striping of property, and ejecting Russian ethnic people from the west. Seriously this is fucked up. West played around internment camps (hyperbolic)are they willing go that route again. Its quite disheartening. Guilt by association(race) is not morally or ethically tolerable.
> 
> Remember then vitriol against Muslims and certain races after 911?


----------



## HiTechComms

tomydoom said:


> I have no idea who that politician is, however expelling enemy nationals is normal practice.  Expelling Canadians or Americans because they are ethnically Russian WOULD be unethical and I do not believe anyone is seriously proposing that.
> 
> I DO remember nutjobs ranting to expel all brown  or muslim people after 911.  What I also remember is a parade of politicians of all stripes, saying that suggesting such was unacceptable.  You're being a bit of a troll on this, to be honest.


Yes but idiots also listen to these idiots. There were incidents. The hyper polarization is already happening because of media. This is when emotions start running wild and bad decisions.. What ever I just don't care any more. I grew up about 7km from a Nazi work camp 60kilometers from a Nazi death camp. Tribalism was in my face. I refuse to lower myself to that, to top it off then Russian occupation was all around. As much I hate the Russian state I wouldn't ever target individuals that have nothing to do with their government, and that is a red line I wouldn't ever cross.


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> Being Hyperbolic. But if you think anti-russian bias will not develop in the west because of this is a simply ignorant.
> 
> Again being hyperbolic and lack of nuance on the internet.. I am the pro russian according to you.
> 
> F Focus
> A Authority
> T Tribe
> E Emotions
> 
> If you are being effected by one of these vectors of manipulation then you have a problem.
> 
> Are you serious? Should we eject Afghani people because of Afghanistan.  Holy Eff. I don't like what you country is doing so get the eff out even if these people did nothing?


No, you are using a wrong term. Stop insinuating things that haven’t happened or will not.  

1.  No Canada won’t be setting up internment camps for Russians so stop. 

2. Yes, I am serious.  Anyone in country that has no citizenship or permanent residency can be told to leave at any time for any reason.  Give it a rest. 

It looks like once again you are just trying to stir a pot of stuff no one ordered.


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498691078437969924
History doesn't repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme. 

This is rhyming with 1917 right now.


----------



## Kirkhill

HiTechComms said:


> As much as I want to agree with this assessment I think the Russians know exactly what they are doing. This is a Russian doctrine on loss of life in the armed forces since forever.
> 
> *I think Russians are minimizing the destruction as much as they can.. Why would you want to level everything if you want to take over the country. Allies in WW2 had the same directives of destruction of property. *It is also bad optics, and if Russia doesn't take over Ukraine it doesn't want a rogue state either.
> 
> Its also been less then a Week. Look at the USA Iraq invasion, the fighting didn't stop for a long time. Hopefully this will end soon with peace talks before more life is lost.



If those were the directives than everybody was awfully bad at following orders - from Coventry to Stalingrad with Berlin, Hamburg, Dresden and the Ruhr Valley in between.  And the Japanese and Chinese might have opinions on Nanking, Shanghai, Tokyo, Hiroshima and Nagasaki.


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> Yes but idiots also listen to these idiots. There were incidents. The hyper polarization is already happening because of media. This is when emotions start running wild and bad decisions.. What ever I just don't care any more. I grew up about 7km from a Nazi work camp 60kilometers from a Nazi death camp. Tribalism was in my face. I refuse to lower myself to that, to top it off then Russian occupation was all around. As much I hate the Russian state I wouldn't ever target individuals that have nothing to do with their government, and that is a red line I wouldn't ever cross.


Welcome to Canada and the weak west where we don’t actually do that stuff so you can relax well behind the red line.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Hmmmm ....








						Ukraine may launch preventive missile strike on Belarus if decision made – Danilov
					

Ukraine may launch a preventive missile strike on Belarus if the commander-in-chief makes the appropriate decision, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov has said.




					en.interfax.com.ua


----------



## HiTechComms

Kirkhill said:


> Question for you HTC
> 
> Is it not reasonable to make a distinction between Vladimir and his Button, on the one hand, and Russia, on the other?  And also between the Boyars and the people?


I don't think it does. He is just an apple on the apple tree, apple tree is the state. The Duma gave him these powers, these were elected officials. I just refer to Russia as to a "state"


----------



## KevinB

Eaglelord17 said:


> I wouldn’t say Russia is a truly a threat to the international community (other than the threat of Nukes, but they are mainly using it as a deterrent). It is a terrible thing they are doing, but that doesn’t mean this is a springboard for taking over Europe, rather they likely see it as a way to protect themselves from a increasingly hostile to their regime West.
> 
> This doesn’t mean we shouldn’t do what we can to help Ukraine but realistically it is a regional conflict, just the first serious one between two modern nations since 1982.


Hostile?  I can't think of any ONE reason the Ukrainians may harbor resentment towards Russia before this LATEST invasion...
  I can think of three...

Russia under Putin is a bully - Vlad has been reported by several sources as in failing health - and he wanted to a have a legacy of USSR 2.0
  Period - end stop 
 No other reason exists - he knew that with the Ukraine being westernized and dealing with corruption significantly under the current President that they would join the EU and probably NATO, and that his satrap in Belarus would fall after that.
  Then Russians would start wondering about their quality of life - and why the Oligarchs have everything and they aren't getting treated as fairly as the folks across the border.


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498695633582145538
Ukraine is just trolling Russia now.


----------



## HiTechComms

Remius said:


> Welcome to Canada and the weak west where we don’t actually do that stuff so you can relax well behind the red line.


“History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes” – *Mark Twain*.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Hostile?  I can't think of any ONE reason the Ukrainians may harbor resentment towards Russia before this LATEST invasion...
> I can think of three...
> 
> Russia under Putin is a bully - Vlad has been reported by several sources as in failing health - and he wanted to a have a legacy of USSR 2.0
> Period - end stop
> No other reason exists - he knew that with the Ukraine being westernized and dealing with corruption significantly under the current President that they would join the EU and probably NATO, and that his satrap in Belarus would fall after that.
> Then Russians would start wondering about their quality of life - and why the Oligarchs have everything and they aren't getting treated as fairly as the folks across the border.


Funny statistic.

The median income in Russia is 800 usd a month. The median income in India is 1000.

The average Russian is poorer than the average Indian. Couple this with the concentration of wealth by the ruling class and Russia is always one bad decision away from a revolution. This could be that one bad decision.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

HiTechComms said:


> I don't think it does. He is just an apple on the apple tree, apple tree is the state. The Duma gave him these powers, these were elected officials. I just refer to Russia as to a "state"


The Reichstag did the same thing. Once the fox was in the hen house, things went very, very bad. 

Tyrants and megalomaniacs fit a very similar mold. Once they secure power and entrench themselves, very little the "elected body" can do to eject them. Once that happens, its usually an "Et tu, Brute?" moment, or said dictator brushing their teeth with a Makarov that returns the power back to the legislature.


----------



## Haggis

Altair said:


> I was looking for the feint, repeatedly, for the first 3 days.
> 
> And if not feint, then the strategy of attacking on all fronts and reinforcing where you are doing well.  But neither of these are true. This isn't a feint, they didn't try to fail to take Kiev to attack somewhere else with greater success, like Donbass, Kharkiv or in the south. They happen to have achieved more of a breakthrough in the south, but even then they are not exploiting it to any great measure.
> 
> So that leave reinforcing where they are doing well. There is only one place they are doing well, in the south. They are bogged down near Kharkiv, they haven't made any great gains near the Donbass, and the attack of Kiev has been a bloody grind. So it would have made the most sense to reinforce the south, keep the pressure on near Kiev, and cut off a lot Ukrainian units in the east.  Instead they are trying to brute force their way to Kiev.
> 
> With reports of troops running out of gas, food, ammunition, its clear that the longer this goes on the worse the situation gets for the Russian army so trying to grind down the Ukrainians over the long term probably wasn't the plan either.
> 
> So that leaves the most obvious answer as the most likely answer. The Russian army is actually that bad. Which is another really bad outcome for Russia. Their intimidation comes from two things, their nuclear power and the supposed strength of their military. The latter is turning into a laughingstock. It's unimaginable to picture western NATO soldiers abandoning their vehicles due to lack of fuel, having to scavenge for food, or breaking down in tears over citizens yelling at them. Its hard to imagine NATO not knocking out the enemies Air force or AD systems in the event of any conflict. Everyone, including myself, probably thought of the Russian army as a near peer rival, but their utter lack of professionalism shown here shows they are just big. Not insignificant, but a far way from being able to threaten NATO. There is no way the Russians wanted to show this image of their military to the world.


I don't think we've seen the Russian "A" Team yet. There's also been a lack of info on the activites, successes or failures of  the much vaunted Russian SOF.  To date, this war seems to have been planned for operational and tactical goals with little thought to strategic objectives aside from "if you interfere, we might nuke you".


----------



## KevinB

So Russia maybe not the best target planning, a Holocaust Memorial...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498697538085568514


----------



## Altair

Haggis said:


> I don't think we've seen the Russian "A" Team yet. There's also been a lack of info on the activites, successes or failures of  the much vaunted Russian SOF.  To date, this war seems to have been planned for operational and tactical goals with little thought to strategic objectives aside from "if you interfere, we might nuke you".


While this is a fair point, is there a A team for logistics? Comms? The Russians are failing to do the most basic fundamentals of soldiering right now. Keep soldiers fed, keep tanks fueled. 

I guess we can see if the A team has a better handle on these fundamentals, but at this point I'm of the opinion that it's systemic.


----------



## KevinB

Haggis said:


> I don't think we've seen the Russian "A" Team yet. There's also been a lack of info on the activites, successes or failures of  the much vaunted Russian SOF.  To date, this war seems to have been planned for operational and tactical goals with little thought to strategic objectives aside from "if you interfere, we might nuke you".


1st Guard is bogged down at Kharkiv as @Altair, I and a few others had pointed out earlier.  That is their A team as far as Armored formations goes.

Their version of XVIII Airborne forces took a beating on the Air Assault, and at least 2 IL-76 lost with paratroopers in it - so I think they decided that was a bad idea

The Russian version of AFO has been running around Kyiv - but getting routed out by locals.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> 1st Guard is bogged down at Kharkiv as @Altair, I and a few others had pointed out earlier.  That is their A team as far as Armored formations goes.
> 
> Their version of XVIII Airborne forces took a beating on the Air Assault, and at least 2 IL-76 lost with paratroopers in it - so I think they decided that was a bad idea
> 
> The Russian version of AFO has been running around Kyiv - but getting routed out by locals.











						World's largest plane destroyed in Ukraine
					

The world's largest plane, the Antonov AN-225, has been destroyed during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to Ukrainian officials, generating alarm and sadness among the aviation world in which it occupies almost cult status.




					www.cnn.com
				






> The world's largest aircraft, the Antonov AN-225, has been destroyed during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to Ukrainian officials, generating alarm and sadness among the aviation world in which it occupies almost cult status.
> The enormous aircraft, named "Mriya," or "dream" in Ukrainian, was parked at an airfield near Kyiv when it was attacked by "Russian occupants," Ukrainian authorities said, adding that they would rebuild the plane.
> "Russia may have destroyed our 'Mriya'. But they will never be able to destroy our dream of a strong, free and democratic European state. We shall prevail!" wrote Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on Twitter.
> 
> There has been no independent confirmation of the aircraft's destruction. A tweet from the Antonov Company said it could not verify the "technical condition" of the aircraft until it had been inspected by experts.
> Ukrainian state defense company Ukroboronprom, which manages Antonov, on Sunday issued a statement saying the aircraft had been destroyed but would be rebuilt at Russia's expense -- a cost it put at $3 billion.
> "The restoration is estimated to take over 3 billion USD and over five years," the statement said. "Our task is to ensure that these costs are covered by the Russian Federation, which has caused intentional damage to Ukraine's aviation and the air cargo sector.


Collateral damage from that attack. Very sad.


----------



## Spencer100

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498695633582145538
> Ukraine is just trolling Russia now.


This is the Data and Tik Tok war.  I bet they have the cell phone, social media accounts for each of those soldiers too. If they have not already you will see emails and messages to individuals and families that are personalized.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498674777032114184

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498653735228170240


----------



## Remius

Altair said:


> While this is a fair point, is there a A team for logistics? Comms? The Russians are failing to do the most basic fundamentals of soldiering right now. Keep soldiers fed, keep tanks fueled.
> 
> I guess we can see if the A team has a better handle on these fundamentals, but at this point I'm of the opinion that it's systemic.


A is for A echelon.  And yeah, we haven’t seen it lol.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498708724801748994


----------



## Kirkhill

Haggis said:


> I don't think we've seen the Russian "A" Team yet. There's also been a lack of info on the activites, successes or failures of  the much vaunted Russian SOF.  To date, this war seems to have been planned for operational and tactical goals with little thought to strategic objectives aside from "if you interfere, we might nuke you".




I keep harping on about Swedish reports from the 2013-2016 era that are in the public domain.  There has also been some Russian commentary from Russian military observers and dissidents describing the quality of the forces.

Since the first Chechen War they have been stating that Maskirovka is the policy and that the Maskirovka is masking the abysmal quality of the Russian forces.

The "elite forces" have been drawing on conscripts for years because they can't hire enough paid volunteers.  That applies to the VDV and the Spetsnaz (who have been turned into operational troops rather than Military Intelligence (GRU) Special Forces.  They were some of the few politically reliable people available with military training.  The Rosgvardia are politically reliable troops (to a point) with no military training.

The tanks and guns that Russia has are scattered all across Russia in vehicle parks.  They are of various ancient vintages and would serve well in local defense, if any enemy could penetrate far enough to engage them.  They can be seen as militarily irrelevant in the current Ukrainian battles.

Their Divisions were redesignated as Brigades due to the lack of running gear and sufficient numbers of troops.  It appears that even then they have had to operationalize their available manpower and kit in Battalion Battle Groups.  Without the benefit of radios or maps.

China may be a real threat.   But the only threat that Russia presented, according to the Swedes, was to the civil populations of its neighbours.  And its only defence was the threat of countering threats to their forces by "Nuclear De-Escalation"  - An Orwellian term meaning being the first to go nuclear by using Theatre weapons on its neighbours' territories.

And daring NATO and the EU to do something about it.

In my opinion - There is no there, there.

The one, and only risk, and it ain't no insignificant one, is Vlad's own version of Hillary's Reset button.


----------



## Kirkhill

HiTechComms said:


> I don't think it does. He is just an apple on the apple tree, apple tree is the state. The Duma gave him these powers, these were elected officials. I just refer to Russia as to a "state"



So the Boyars then?


----------



## Altair

Remius said:


> A is for A echelon.  And yeah, we haven’t seen it lol.


VDV its their best of the best? 1st Guards around Kharkiv isn't their best of the best?

We have seen their best, their best has been found wanting.


----------



## KevinB

Originally shared by another member here.
CNA Overview of 
Russian Strategy for Escalation Management: Evolution of Key Concepts
DRM-2019-U-022455-1Rev.pdf

For Russian military thinkers, escalation management is not necessarily about winning or de- escalation. As a conflict progresses, escalation management approaches are intended to force off-ramps or negotiations that may result in a termination of the conflict on terms favorable to Russia or deter the entry of other participants. They may also keep the conflict going but prevent its escalation from a regional to a large-scale war, for example. There are four generally agreed-upon conflict archetypes in Russian military thought (as per Table 1, earlier in the paper): a local war with one state, a regional war against a coalition of states, a large-scale war on multiple fronts against a major power or several powers, and a nuclear war.33 A fifth, armed conflict, is often considered an internal conflict among opposing groups on the territory of one state.


----------



## ueo

MilEME09 said:


> One thing I noticed, Canada specifically said it was sending gas masks to Ukraine, any one have Intel on the CBRN threat?


Asked this a bit ago. Little to no response. Time to consider the tac level stuff as well as the "Big" picture.


----------



## Remius

Altair said:


> VDV its their best of the best? 1st Guards around Kharkiv isn't their best of the best?
> 
> We have seen their best, their best has been found wanting.


Lol.  No, just an obscure reference to what an A echelon is and your comment on logistics.   We haven’t seen their A echelon and neither have the Russians it would seem.


----------



## Eaglelord17

KevinB said:


> Hostile?  I can't think of any ONE reason the Ukrainians may harbor resentment towards Russia before this LATEST invasion...
> I can think of three...
> 
> Russia under Putin is a bully - Vlad has been reported by several sources as in failing health - and he wanted to a have a legacy of USSR 2.0
> Period - end stop
> No other reason exists - he knew that with the Ukraine being westernized and dealing with corruption significantly under the current President that they would join the EU and probably NATO, and that his satrap in Belarus would fall after that.
> Then Russians would start wondering about their quality of life - and why the Oligarchs have everything and they aren't getting treated as fairly as the folks across the border.


I completely get the Ukrainian side of it, I also can see what the Russian/Kremlin side of it would be. Understanding why your enemy fights is important in trying to determine what they may or may not do. 

Has NATO and the West slowly been encroaching on Russia? Yes, they have been slowly expanding up to them. If you were the ones in power in the Kremlin and the West wants a regime change (they aren't shy about it) you would also say they are hostile towards you and your goals (goals being maintaining the status quo with a possible revival of the USSR area). Not saying I agree with it, just that dictators have reasons for doing what they do. 

Some major issues for the Kremlin though is the fact the population doesn't even want a war with Ukraine in the first place. Coupled with a losing war, it could easily turn into a regime change which ironically is likely one of the things they were trying to avoid with this war in the first place.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> I was looking for the feint, repeatedly, for the first 3 days.
> 
> And if not feint, then the strategy of attacking on all fronts and reinforcing where you are doing well.  But neither of these are true. This isn't a feint, they didn't try to fail to take Kiev to attack somewhere else with greater success, like Donbass, Kharkiv or in the south. They happen to have achieved more of a breakthrough in the south, but even then they are not exploiting it to any great measure.
> 
> So that leave reinforcing where they are doing well. There is only one place they are doing well, in the south. They are bogged down near Kharkiv, they haven't made any great gains near the Donbass, and the attack of Kiev has been a bloody grind. So it would have made the most sense to reinforce the south, keep the pressure on near Kiev, and cut off a lot Ukrainian units in the east.  Instead they are trying to brute force their way to Kiev.
> 
> With reports of troops running out of gas, food, ammunition, its clear that the longer this goes on the worse the situation gets for the Russian army so trying to grind down the Ukrainians over the long term probably wasn't the plan either.
> 
> So that leaves the most obvious answer as the most likely answer. The Russian army is actually that bad. Which is another really bad outcome for Russia. Their intimidation comes from two things, their nuclear power and the supposed strength of their military. The latter is turning into a laughingstock. It's unimaginable to picture western NATO soldiers abandoning their vehicles due to lack of fuel, having to scavenge for food, or breaking down in tears over citizens yelling at them. Its hard to imagine NATO not knocking out the enemies Air force or AD systems in the event of any conflict. Everyone, including myself, probably thought of the Russian army as a near peer rival, but their utter lack of professionalism shown here shows they are just big. Not insignificant, but a far way from being able to threaten NATO. There is no way the Russians wanted to show this image of their military to the world.


 The Russian army is actually that bad.

That then begs the question - how did the Poles game against a hypo-thectical all out Russian attack against them and lose so badly, as you previously pointed out?

Did the Poles completely, utterly overestimate the Russian's abilities?  Or, are the Poles so much less capable than the Russians/Ukrainians?


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> The Russian army is actually that bad.
> 
> That then begs the question - how did the Poles game against a hypo-thectical all out Russian attack against them and lose so badly, as you previously pointed out?
> 
> Did the Poles completely, utterly overestimate the Russian's abilities?  Or, are the Poles so much less capable than the Russians/Ukrainians?


Probably the former. Russia had air superiority over Poland in their war game, Russia cannot even get air superiority over Ukraine.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> The Russian army is actually that bad.
> 
> That then begs the question - how did the Poles game against a hypo-thectical all out Russian attack against them and lose so badly, as you previously pointed out?
> 
> Did the Poles completely, utterly overestimate the Russian's abilities?  Or, are the Poles so much less capable than the Russians/Ukrainians?


A lot of people figured Division was a Division, not a Brigade or Battalion Battle Group 
  I mean heck you'd be concerned too if you saw how many Res units Canada has on the ORBAT - until you realized it wasn't a Regiment, but a Section...


----------



## HiTechComms

Kirkhill said:


> So the Boyars then?


Boyars were feudalistic and nobility. These are elected officials. More like Political/Rulling class/elite akin to the Clintons, Kennedys, Trudeaus, Bushes. (Life long Polticians)


----------



## Brad Sallows

1. Don't pay attention to nitwits like Swalwell.  The few people clamouring for punitive measures against Russians are getting plenty of push-back among the commentariat.

2. Russians might fight hard to defend Holy Mother Russia.  But many Russians have tasted the goods of fortune in moderation for the past 30+ years and have no appetite to sacrifice for oligarchs during an aggressive war.

3. There was no reason not to go in hard and fast and seek a quick victory.  The obvious conclusion is that this is the best Russia can do right now.  Going forward, the security risk to Russia is not NATO in the west, but China in the east, which is doubtless paying close attention to what Russia can do right now.  Putin just pulled down his pants for all the world to see.  Turns out, it's small.


----------



## tomydoom

HTC, what are you trying to achieve with your line of dialogue?


----------



## Altair

Brad Sallows said:


> 1. Don't pay attention to nitwits like Swalwell.  The few people clamouring for punitive measures against Russians are getting plenty of push-back among the commentariat.
> 
> 2. Russians might fight hard to defend Holy Mother Russia.  But many Russians have tasted the goods of fortune in moderation for the past 30+ years and have no appetite to sacrifice for oligarchs during an aggressive war.
> 
> 3. There was no reason not to go in hard and fast and seek a quick victory.  The obvious conclusion is that this is the best Russia can do right now.  G Putin just pulled down his pants for all the world to see.  Turns out, it's small.


Fixed your post, you can thank me later.


----------



## Kirkhill

HiTechComms said:


> Boyars were feudalistic and nobility. These are elected officials. More like Political/Rulling class/elite akin to the Clintons, Kennedys, Trudeaus, Bushes. (Life long Polticians)



Come on man.  Vested interest is vested interest.  Their culture survives regardless of the environment in which they find themselves operating.  Neither Lenin nor Stalin nor Robespierre managed the trick of knocking off the aristocracy.


----------



## HiTechComms

Eaglelord17 said:


> I completely get the Ukrainian side of it, I also can see what the Russian/Kremlin side of it would be. Understanding why your enemy fights is important in trying to determine what they may or may not do.
> 
> Has NATO and the West slowly been encroaching on Russia? Yes, they have been slowly expanding up to them. If you were the ones in power in the Kremlin and the West wants a regime change (they aren't shy about it) you would also say they are hostile towards you and your goals (goals being maintaining the status quo with a possible revival of the USSR area). Not saying I agree with it, just that dictators have reasons for doing what they do.
> 
> Some major issues for the Kremlin though is the fact the population doesn't even want a war with Ukraine in the first place. Coupled with a losing war, it could easily turn into a regime change which ironically is likely one of the things they were trying to avoid with this war in the first place.


I don't think Russian's even want Donbas regions. The polls were like hey you become independent, I think Russian polls showed 48% unification, but Crimea was 86%,  Russia sees the writing on the wall maybe they want a new buffer zone with the west. 

Until the Rubble collapse Russians earned more then Ukrainians. I don't think Russia wants Ukraine. Ukraine wants to be in the west for jobs this is why there is like 1+ million Ukrainians in Poland.

Assuming there will be a regime change is a given is pie in the sky hopes. In all honesty I hope Russians get the fuck out of Ukraine but having a regime change at the same time would be very dangerous. "Regime change" as in western view of it happening, well that didn't work out to well in middle east and no one wants a Rogue state with Nukes.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> A lot of people figured Division was a Division, not a Brigade or Battalion Battle Group
> I mean heck you'd be concerned too if you saw how many Res units Canada has on the ORBAT - until you realized it wasn't a Regiment, but a Section...


I've haven't forgotten my learnings from reading/analyzing too many books on the Eastern Front to forget that Russian divisions usually ranged from 8-11k at 'full strength.  Nowhere what the Germans (or us) considered to be a full-strength division.


----------



## daftandbarmy

I can't help but think that a few squadrons of these things, festooned with some anti-armour weapons, would come in handy right now:







__





						Full stock list 2022-12-01 new Heavy construction machinery, new gensets, military trucks, Farm and tractors for sale
					






					bv.army-uk.com


----------



## HiTechComms

Kirkhill said:


> Come on man.  Vested interest is vested interest.  Their culture survives regardless of the environment in which they find themselves operating.  Neither Lenin nor Stalin nor Robespierre managed the trick of knocking off the aristocracy.


That is a very western outlook on a political landscape. 

I am not sure you mean "aristocracy" the way I under stand it. 
Stalin did very well knocking out aristocracy, so did Lenin, so did Mao, Kim Sung Un, Kim Jong Il, Pol Pot..


----------



## Spencer100

Reports of a Russian navy ship mutiny









						Russian troops ‘MUTINY on warship and refuse to fight in Ukraine', reports claim
					

RUSSIAN marines “mutinied” onboard Vladimir Putin’s warships and refused to attack a Ukrainian port, reports claimed today. A fleet was poised to begin a beach assault on strategi…




					www.the-sun.com
				




Plus a Belarusian General says no to attack.


----------



## Altair

Kirkhill said:


> I keep harping on about Swedish reports from the 2013-2016 era that are in the public domain.  There has also been some Russian commentary from Russian military observers and dissidents describing the quality of the forces.
> 
> Since the first Chechen War they have been stating that Maskirovka is the policy and that the Maskirovka is masking the abysmal quality of the Russian forces.
> 
> The "elite forces" have been drawing on conscripts for years because they can't hire enough paid volunteers.  That applies to the VDV and the Spetsnaz (who have been turned into operational troops rather than Military Intelligence (GRU) Special Forces.  They were some of the few politically reliable people available with military training.  The Rosgvardia are politically reliable troops (to a point) with no military training.
> 
> The tanks and guns that Russia has are scattered all across Russia in vehicle parks.  They are of various ancient vintages and would serve well in local defense, if any enemy could penetrate far enough to engage them.  They can be seen as militarily irrelevant in the current Ukrainian battles.
> 
> Their Divisions were redesignated as Brigades due to the lack of running gear and sufficient numbers of troops.  It appears that even then they have had to operationalize their available manpower and kit in Battalion Battle Groups.  Without the benefit of radios or maps.
> 
> China may be a real threat.   But the only threat that Russia presented, according to the Swedes, was to the civil populations of its neighbours.  And its only defence was the threat of countering threats to their forces by "Nuclear De-Escalation"  - An Orwellian term meaning being the first to go nuclear by using Theatre weapons on its neighbours' territories.
> 
> And daring NATO and the EU to do something about it.
> 
> In my opinion - There is no there, there.
> 
> The one, and only risk, and it ain't no insignificant one, is Vlad's own version of Hillary's Reset button.


I remember all the talk of new Russian drone tech, Russian cyber capabilities, Russian counter battery capabilities, Russian semi automated tanks. 

Polishing a turd it appears.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498715507297501187
Bodies continue to stack up for Russia, these are numbers that are unsustainable if they are taking 500+ casualties a day. How many units are combat ineffective now?


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498716753483939846


----------



## Brad Sallows

> having a regime change at the same time would be very dangerous.



Russia is perfectly capable of managing a fairly orderly coup.  As a solution, it's faster and safer than this teetering-on-the-brink-of-war-with-NATO crap.  NATO isn't going to interfere if someone takes down Putin.  A guess: at the first reports of a coup, NATO and EU start de-escalating in order to reassure Russia it can execute the coup safely.


----------



## HiTechComms

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498715507297501187
> Bodies continue to stack up for Russia, these are numbers that are unsustainable if they are taking 500+ casualties a day. How many units are combat ineffective now?


Any one that takes Twitter or any social media at face value and understands opsec should take it with a heaping teaspoon of salt.  Russian doctrine is not like the west.


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> Russian doctrine is not like the west.


that much is very clear.


----------



## MilEME09

HiTechComms said:


> Any one that takes Twitter or any social media at face value and understands opsec should take it with a heaping teaspoon of salt.  Russian doctrine is not like the west.


Your right its not, Russia doesn't care about casualties, especially their conscripted troops.


----------



## HiTechComms

Brad Sallows said:


> Russia is perfectly capable of managing a fairly orderly coup.  As a solution, it's faster and safer than this teetering-on-the-brink-of-war-with-NATO crap.  NATO isn't going to interfere if someone takes down Putin.  A guess: at the first reports of a coup, NATO and EU start de-escalating in order to reassure Russia it can execute the coup safely.


You are assuming that is a remote possibility with the structure of the Russian Armed forces.
Give the Russians some credit here, they have figured out the coup thing a long time ago. A coup in Russia is about as likely as it would be in the USA or China.


----------



## Brad Sallows

For a Russian troll, you don't seem to understand the party-police-army thing Russia has had going for decades.  The "structure of the Russian Armed Forces" isn't even a speed bump.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> Your right its not, Russia doesn't care about casualties, especially their conscripted troops.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497913949475454977
Russian soldiers seem to care.


----------



## Kirkhill

HiTechComms said:


> That is a very western outlook on a political landscape.
> 
> I am not sure you mean "aristocracy" the way I under stand it.
> Stalin did very well knocking out aristocracy, so did Lenin, so did Mao, Kim Sung Un, Kim Jong Il, Pol Pot..


How much does a Party membership and a lifetime subscription to GUM cost?


----------



## HiTechComms

Brad Sallows said:


> For a Russian troll, you don't seem to understand the party-police-army thing Russia has had going for decades.  The "structure of the Russian Armed Forces" isn't even a speed bump.


Well since I am an eastern European I don't underestimate the Russians. I am also a realist because when I was a kid growing up we did have Russian tanks on our streets, can you say the same. God forbid I don't want an escalation because the first place that would be hit is where all my family still lives?  Easy to talk when you are 7k miles away.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Biden takes aim at Putin in State of the Union; shells pound Kharkiv as Russia escalates attacks: Recap
					

A massive, 40-mile convoy of Russian tanks and vehicles appears to have stalled on its push toward the capital of Kyiv. Tuesday's recap.



					www.usatoday.com
				




A massive, 40-mile convoy of Russian tanks and vehicles appeared to bog down on its  push toward the capital of Kyiv on Tuesday while residential areas of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, were being pounded by Russian shells.

The Russian military advance drew to within 15 miles of Kyiv’s center amid signs that troops are running out of gas and food, a senior U.S. Defense Department official said Tuesday. Russia has committed about 80% of the combat force President Vladimir Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, the official said.


----------



## Altair

Eye In The Sky said:


> Biden takes aim at Putin in State of the Union; shells pound Kharkiv as Russia escalates attacks: Recap
> 
> 
> A massive, 40-mile convoy of Russian tanks and vehicles appears to have stalled on its push toward the capital of Kyiv. Tuesday's recap.
> 
> 
> 
> www.usatoday.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A massive, 40-mile convoy of Russian tanks and vehicles appeared to bog down on its  push toward the capital of Kyiv on Tuesday while residential areas of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, were being pounded by Russian shells.
> 
> The Russian military advance drew to within 15 miles of Kyiv’s center amid signs that troops are running out of gas and food, a senior U.S. Defense Department official said Tuesday. Russia has committed about 80% of the combat force President Vladimir Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, the official said.


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> Well since I am an eastern European I don't underestimate the Russians.


nobody was.  Especially the Ukrainians.


----------



## Kirkhill

Czech_pivo said:


> The Russian army is actually that bad.
> 
> That then begs the question - how did the Poles game against a hypo-thectical all out Russian attack against them and lose so badly, as you previously pointed out?
> 
> Did the Poles completely, utterly overestimate the Russian's abilities?  Or, are the Poles so much less capable than the Russians/Ukrainians?


 
And has been since 1968....


----------



## TacticalTea

Czech_pivo said:


> The Russian army is actually that bad.
> 
> That then begs the question - how did the Poles game against a hypo-thectical all out Russian attack against them and lose so badly, as you previously pointed out?
> 
> Did the Poles completely, utterly overestimate the Russian's abilities?  Or, are the Poles so much less capable than the Russians/Ukrainians?


That was one of my first thoughts as I took notice of Russia's incompetence.

We're gonna have to re-do all our wargames because the prevailing notion that Russia would somehow win the first stage of a pan-European war now seems ridiculous, to the point of absurdity.



Spencer100 said:


> Reports of a Russian navy ship mutiny
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian troops ‘MUTINY on warship and refuse to fight in Ukraine', reports claim
> 
> 
> RUSSIAN marines “mutinied” onboard Vladimir Putin’s warships and refused to attack a Ukrainian port, reports claimed today. A fleet was poised to begin a beach assault on strategi…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.the-sun.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Plus a Belarusian General says no to attack.



I was told the Russian Navy has a history of irreverence.

They fired the first shots against the monarchy in the 1917 civil war.

Should ''judgment day'' come, I would hope that same irreverence would materialize in the hearts and minds of their silent servicemen manning SSBNs.


----------



## Remius

Reports are that the convoy sent in is now running out of supplies.

This is going to be a major blunder if this keeps up.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Remius said:


> Reports are that the convoy sent in is now running out of supplies.
> 
> This is going to be a major blunder if this keeps up.



Add it to the tally. 

Seems the POGs are actually persons of tactical importance.....


----------



## HumblePie

TacticalTea said:


> Should ''judgment day'' come, I would hope that same irreverence would materialize in the hearts and minds of their silent servicemen manning SSBNs.











						Russia holds drills with nuclear subs, land-based missiles
					

Russian nuclear submarines have sailed off for drills in the Barents Sea and mobile missile launchers are roaming snow forests in Siberia after President Vladimir Putin ordered his nation’s nuclear forces put on high alert




					abcnews.go.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

Here's info that maybe of some of use to you or others that you might know can use.

Here are the HF being used by the Russian - often in clear -

7933 khz USB (lompas/buran BTG)
7140 khz USB
5125 khz USB
4220 khz USB
3098 khz USB


----------



## KevinB

HumblePie said:


> Russia holds drills with nuclear subs, land-based missiles
> 
> 
> Russian nuclear submarines have sailed off for drills in the Barents Sea and mobile missile launchers are roaming snow forests in Siberia after President Vladimir Putin ordered his nation’s nuclear forces put on high alert
> 
> 
> 
> 
> abcnews.go.com


It's good to know where they are


----------



## Blackadder1916

HiTechComms said:


> . . . God forbid I don't want an escalation because the first place that would be hit is where all my family still lives?  Easy to talk when you are 7k miles away.



Interesting (but understandable) that you are concerned for the safety of your extended family, but seemed to have less concern (perhaps even disdain) for the safety of aged family members of others during the earlier stages of the pandemic.  So yes, it is easy for others to talk when they don't care about your family. 



HiTechComms said:


> War = Do we sacrifice young to possibly stop greater harm?
> Covid = Do we sacrifice the old and feeble to possible stop greater harm?



Or, do we accept that some who live in that area will die due to necessary military action to unseat a greater threat to the world.  It is to be expected (based on history) that they are just so much "dry tinder" long waiting for another war to come along.


----------



## KevinB

So UKR Ambo attending the POTUS SOU Address tonight..


----------



## The Bread Guy

HiTechComms said:


> ... I was a kid growing up we did have Russian tanks on our streets, can you say the same. God forbid I don't want an escalation because the first place that would be hit is where all my family still lives? ...


Agree or disagree with you, best of luck with family back in the old country - hoping they remain safe.


----------



## McG

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498674777032114184


Umm ... there's an arrow on the Russian invasion map that goes into Moldova.


----------



## KevinB

As Russia Sanctions Intensify, Several Oligarchs Speak Out Against Ukraine War
					

A parade of Russian businessmen burnished their antiwar stances in recent days as Western governments tightened a noose around Kremlin-connected businesses and property.




					www.wsj.com


----------



## KevinB

McG said:


> Umm ... there's an arrow on the Russian invasion map that goes into Moldova.


Yeah - and some other stuff on the Defense ORBAT...

Either very careless of the Russians to telegraph their full intent of USSR 2.0
  OR a planned leak

If planned leak why
1) Warn NATO by threat (and fairly empty at this point)
2) Warn the World that Vlad needs to go.


----------



## HiTechComms

Blackadder1916 said:


> Interesting (but understandable) that you are concerned for the safety of your extended family, but seemed to have less concern (perhaps even disdain) for the safety of aged family members of others during the earlier stages of the pandemic.  So yes, it is easy for others to talk when they don't care about your family.
> 
> 
> 
> Or, do we accept that some who live in that area will die due to necessary military action to unseat a greater threat to the world.  It is to be expected (based on history) that they are just so much "dry tinder" long waiting for another war to come along.



Ukraine has forbidden fighting age men from leaving. So yeah they are sacrificing.

Am I of another Nation willing to sacrifice my own blood or possible the REST OF THE WORLD because a regional conflict with a super power is happening? Hello No.  Hopefully world leaders will see it the same way. Nuclear war is the end of the human species as we know it. Economic and social pressure is the only way this ends in a way where human race survives. Push comes to shove I don't doubt Russian would launch Nukes.

Nuclear war VS Covid aka the Cold.  Funny enough no one talks about it any more. Its like every ones Focus has been purposely shifted from failed policies.

FYI I had 5 family members die in the last 2 years due to old age that I couldn't visit. I had my share of sacrifices. What about you? I also financially took care of them as well. 

Do you even care how this country is now unaffordable for your kids?

Comparing Covid to Nuclear War.. Yeah Nope.. There is something wrong with you.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

McG said:


> Umm ... there's an arrow on the Russian invasion map that goes into Moldova.



Every World War villain needs its bumbling oaf of an ally. 

Lukashenko is Putin's Mussolini.


----------



## Brad Sallows

Fortunately, involvement isn't a binary choice between "do everything" and "do nothing".  Obviously a doctrine of "let Putin swallow any territory he pleases that isn't a NATO member" is untenable.


----------



## KevinB

rmc_wannabe said:


> Every World War villain needs its bumbling oaf of an ally.
> 
> Lukashenko is Putin's Mussolini.


Lukashenko is in a worse spot than the #2 - because some of his brass is already refusing to go.


----------



## Kirkhill

rmc_wannabe said:


> Every World War villain needs its bumbling oaf of an ally.
> 
> Lukashenko is Putin's Mussolini.



Or, should we give Lukashenko a bit of credit?

How do I get out of this situation without getting a bullet in the brain from Vlad?

Go public?


----------



## Remius

Kirkhill said:


> Or, should we give Lukashenko a bit of credit?
> 
> How do I get out of this situation without getting a bullet in the brain from Vlad?
> 
> Go public?


He can just pull an Italy and switch sides.


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> Or, should we give Lukashenko a bit of credit?
> 
> How do I get out of this situation without getting a bullet in the brain from Vlad?
> 
> Go public?


I don't think Belarus is trusted to make a map themselves...
  I don't think Lukashenko is smart enough to think a public outing might save him a bit.


----------



## KevinB

Remius said:


> He can just pull an Italy and switch sides.


He's dead either way


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Kirkhill said:


> Or, should we give Lukashenko a bit of credit?
> 
> How do I get out of this situation without getting a bullet in the brain from Vlad?
> 
> Go public?



Better than being turned into a fruit bat by your populace, after millions of dead and your cities reduced to rubble.


----------



## FM07

KevinB said:


> He's dead either way


If Kadyrov is Putin's lap dog , what the hell is Lukeshanko? Some sort of hamster/gerbil creature maybe? Pure garbage either way.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498745704566730765
Now I suspect Ukraine is trying to remove Russian AD to set the conditions for offensive operations. Their strikes so far seem to concentrate on AD and logistical convoys, bleeding their supplies, and air cover.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498746787963850755
Who knew terrain is an issue in that area -- certainly there was no history about that being an issue


----------



## Remius

Couldn’t post link.


----------



## KevinB

Uhm, might not be the best time for demands...
Russian FM Lavrov says time for US to remove nuclear weapons from Europe


----------



## Remius

KevinB said:


> Uhm, might not be the best time for demands...
> Russian FM Lavrov says time for US to remove nuclear weapons from Europe


Wow.  Yeah, that’s going to happen lol.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498748551106637830


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> Uhm, might not be the best time for demands...
> Russian FM Lavrov says time for US to remove nuclear weapons from Europe


Ha! Don't see that happening now, buds.


----------



## Altair

Remius said:


> Reports are that the convoy sent in is now running out of supplies.
> 
> This is going to be a major blunder if this keeps up.


My wife says the biggest threat to Ukraine now is that their counter attack might be successful enough to take Moscow and force putin to use nukes.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> I don't think Belarus is trusted to make a map themselves...
> I don't think Lukashenko is smart enough to think a public outing might save him a bit.



In the absence of better proof, I am wary of underestimating EVERYBODY.

But.... there again.


----------



## The Bread Guy

ICC Prosecutor:  Let's have a look, shall we?








						Statement of ICC Prosecutor, Karim A.A. Khan QC, on the Situation in Ukraine: “I have decided to proceed with opening an investigation.”
					

Last Friday, I expressed my increasing concern, echoing those of world leaders and citizens of the world alike, over the events unfolding in Ukraine.Today, I wish to announce that I have decided to proceed with opening an investigation into the Situation in Ukraine, as rapidly as possible...




					www.icc-cpi.int
				



Text also attached in case link doesn't work


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> My wife says the biggest threat to Ukraine now is that their counter attack might be successful enough to take Moscow and force putin to use nukes.


The Russians are using their firepower against the cities now, as the UKR hasn't been kindly yielding to be "liberated".

 This is going to come to a forcing point soon.
1) I don't think the Ukrainian people are going to accept going back to the pre 2014 status
2) I don't think the West is going to sit and let a million civilians in cities be obliterated


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> The Russians are using their firepower against the cities now, as the UKR hasn't been kindly yielding to be "liberated".
> 
> This is going to come to a forcing point soon.
> 1) I don't think the Ukrainian people are going to accept going back to the pre 2014 status
> 2) I don't think the West is going to sit and let a million civilians in cities be obliterated


On that note, mainstream voices are coming around to the idea of military intervention:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498748199116447744


----------



## OldSolduer

TacticalTea said:


> Further, mainstream voices are coming around to the idea of military intervention:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498748199116447744


In the 1930s Stalin's policies starved 10 million people to death with nary a whimper from the west. I am not saying the West wouldn't intervene now but historically it hasn't happened.


----------



## Kirkhill

Its fascinating the Hostomel relief convoy - now stretching to 40 to 50 km?

How much of a threat is that under the current circumstances?  The Russians have not been able to hold the ground.  The whole world has the locations of every truck in the convoy.  The troopies in the trucks are well aware of Bayraktars and Grads, and know that the closer they get to Kiev, in their lovely long column the closer they get to Ukraine's missiles.

It would have been bad enough to take a long range missile strike while on the move at 5 km/h.  But what is the effect if the last truck in the convoy, at 45 km from the Ukrainian position, is now with in range of Ukraine's shortest range 122 mm rockets?

If you can see Napoleon's columns advancing, you might as well lay down in the grass until they arrive.


----------



## Haggis

KevinB said:


> The Russians are using their firepower against the cities now, as the UKR hasn't been kindly yielding to be "liberated".
> 
> This is going to come to a forcing point soon.
> 1) I don't think the Ukrainian people are going to accept going back to the pre 2014 status
> 2) I don't think the West is going to sit and let a million civilians in cities be obliterated


1) Ukraine is much better provisioned than Russia and the weapons should start to flow in soon, unless Putin shuts the western door to Ukraine.

2) As long as the west can keep them provisioned with minimal risk of material losses to NATO, I agree.  There will be a tipping point when either NATO takes a large loss while supplying Ukraine (ex. a downed A400M or C17) or Putin attacks a sustainment staging base in NATO territory.  Article 5 may not stand up to public opinions back home in the face of nuclear intervention.


----------



## TacticalTea

OldSolduer said:


> In the 1930s Stalin's policies starved 10 million people to death with nary a whimper from the west. I am not saying the West wouldn't intervene now but historically it hasn't happened.


I'm not sure that's an apt comparison. The circumstances and interests at play are very dissimilar.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> Or, should we give Lukashenko a bit of credit?
> 
> How do I get out of this situation without getting a bullet in the brain from like Vlad?
> 
> Go public?


Fixed it for you


----------



## KevinB

TacticalTea said:


> I'm not sure that's an apt comparison. The circumstances and interests at play are very dissimilar.


Plus YouTube and Twitter didn't exist...

 It is much harder to ignore something that is in your face.


----------



## Czech_pivo

OldSolduer said:


> In the 1930s Stalin's policies starved 10 million people to death with nary a whimper from the west. I am not saying the West wouldn't intervene now but historically it hasn't happened.


There wasn't TikTok or Twitter in 1930s Ukraine....


----------



## dapaterson

Czech_pivo said:


> There wasn't TikTok or Twitter in 1930s Ukraine....


Yeah, those were MySpace days.


----------



## Czech_pivo

I know its been talked about before on here, the worry that while Vlad is running wild in the Ukraine (pre-invasion thinking of course) that the West's eye would be off the Taiwan 'ball', but any thoughts on China stabbing Vladdy in the back and making a push into some water/resource rich area of Siberia and then saying, what are you going to do about it?  I mean most of Vladdy's troops are far, far away and when they do come back alot won't have any heavy equipment.  The cupboard in the East is almost empty.


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> Their Elite 1st Guards is bogged down in an Urban battle.
> 
> 
> NLAW and Javelin are being used already.
> A "concerted effort" is being used to ruin Russian C2 +
> No effort has been made to hide that former WP Aircraft have been 'given' by NATO countries and used against Russian forces.
> 
> The Terrain and Weather for this offense is awful - no Military analysis would have supported this timing - it should have been done a month + ago.
> 
> My take aways:
> Russia was supremely overconfident
> Russia had taken a lot of incorrect lessons learned from Syria
> Russia had undervalued the effectiveness of NLAW, Javelin, Stinger and some other provided equipment.
> Russia ignored the terrain implications.
> Ukrainian fighting spirit was woefully undervalued by EVERYONE (myself included)


Looks like the Russians are FLOCARK’d…


----------



## Remius

China is paying very close attention to what’s happening.  And yes, I have no doubt that they will use what they learn to make whatever move they feel is in their best interest. 

I am sure they are rethinking Taiwan and how to handle that. The whole shut down of Russia’s economy may have given them pause. 

I am sure they drop Russia like a wet bag if it suits them.  They already have to an extent.


----------



## cyber_lass

Czech_pivo said:


> I know its been talked about before on here, the worry that while Vlad is running wild in the Ukraine (pre-invasion thinking of course) that the West's eye would be off the Taiwan 'ball', but any thoughts on China stabbing Vladdy in the back and making a push into some water/resource rich area of Siberia and then saying, what are you going to do about it?  I mean most of Vladdy's troops are far, far away and when they do come back alot won't have any heavy equipment.  The cupboard in the East is almost empty.


Not "the Ukraine", only "Ukraine"... I see more China making a move on Taiwan more than Russia...


----------



## McG

Czech_pivo said:


> I know its been talked about before on here, the worry that while Vlad is running wild in the Ukraine (pre-invasion thinking of course) that the West's eye would be off the Taiwan 'ball', but any thoughts on China stabbing Vladdy in the back and making a push into some water/resource rich area of Siberia and then saying, what are you going to do about it?  I mean most of Vladdy's troops are far, far away and when they do come back alot won't have any heavy equipment.  The cupboard in the East is almost empty.


Much like NATO, China is not in a hurry to start absorbing nuke fires.


----------



## KevinB

Haggis said:


> 1) Ukraine is much better provisioned than Russia and the weapons should start to flow in soon, unless Putin shuts the western door to Ukraine.
> 
> 2) As long as the west can keep them provisioned with minimal risk of material losses to NATO, I agree.  There will be a tipping point when either NATO takes a large loss while supplying Ukraine (ex. a downed A400M or C17) or Putin attacks a sustainment staging base in NATO territory.  Article 5 may not stand up to public opinions back home in the face of nuclear intervention.


 From the CNA Study I posted earlier:
For Russian military thinkers, escalation management is not necessarily about winning or de- escalation. As a conflict progresses, escalation management approaches are intended to force off-ramps or negotiations that may result in a termination of the conflict on terms favorable to Russia or deter the entry of other participants.


----------



## Kirkhill

Czech_pivo said:


> There wasn't TikTok or Twitter in 1930s Ukraine....


No there was the New York Times









						How Stalin Hid Ukraine's Famine From the World
					

In 1932 and 1933, millions died across the Soviet Union—and the foreign press corps helped cover up the catastrophe.




					www.theatlantic.com
				












						New York Times Statement About 1932 Pulitzer Prize Awarded to Walter Duranty | The New York Times Company
					






					www.nytco.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Jet gift firing alright, jet gift - STOPS!








						European plan to donate fighter jets to Ukraine collapses
					

The dissolution of the deal comes as European countries lined up Monday to announce new weapons packages for Ukraine, from anti-armor and anti-air rockets to artillery and medical supplies.




					www.politico.com
				



https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-03-01/poland-nato-russia-invasion-ukraine-5185737.html


> ... one day after a top European Union official said some countries were ready to provide fighters to Ukraine, NATO appears to have put on the brakes
> 
> “NATO is not going to be part of the conflict,” Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said. “So NATO is not going to send troops into Ukraine or move planes into Ukrainian airspace.” ...


----------



## HiTechComms

The Bread Guy said:


> Jet gift firing alright, jet gift - STOPS!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> European plan to donate fighter jets to Ukraine collapses
> 
> 
> The dissolution of the deal comes as European countries lined up Monday to announce new weapons packages for Ukraine, from anti-armor and anti-air rockets to artillery and medical supplies.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.politico.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-03-01/poland-nato-russia-invasion-ukraine-5185737.html


Russians were very clear about that supplying arms would be conflict. 

Then again maybe some Ukrainian farmers show up with Tractors and tow "abandoned" airplanes.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Russians were very clear about that supplying arms would be conflict.



Well, that bluff has already been called.


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Jet gift firing alright, jet gift - STOPS!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> European plan to donate fighter jets to Ukraine collapses
> 
> 
> The dissolution of the deal comes as European countries lined up Monday to announce new weapons packages for Ukraine, from anti-armor and anti-air rockets to artillery and medical supplies.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.politico.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-03-01/poland-nato-russia-invasion-ukraine-5185737.html


Uhm Poland was just the staging base -- the UKR pilots already flew a bunch out to UKR.

Besides its an EU Member to Member transfer now..

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498640978395156483
NATO hands clean.


----------



## HiTechComms

Brad Sallows said:


> Well, that bluff has already been called.


True. Maybe Russian consider small arms a little different then an airplane.


----------



## KevinB

HiTechComms said:


> True. Maybe Russian consider small arms a little different then an airplane.


Yawn.
   The EU just did it outside of NATO.
 Besides note what the NATO Sec Gen said - there will be no transfers of planes flown by NATO members into UKR.
  Nothing saying that UKR Pilots wouldn't be taking them into UKR themselves.


----------



## KevinB

Actual Video of Lukashenko briefing

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498673348183744518
Anyone thinking it stops in the Ukraine is quite frankly smoking crack...


----------



## RaceAddict

KevinB said:


> Uhm, might not be the best time for demands...
> Russian FM Lavrov says time for US to remove nuclear weapons from Europe



That's some Trudeau level timing...


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Yawn.
> The EU just did it outside of NATO.
> Besides note what the NATO Sec Gen said - there will be no transfers of planes flown by NATO members into UKR.
> Nothing saying that UKR Pilots wouldn't be taking them into UKR themselves.


Well one COULD parse the Polish president's statement quoted in the Politico piece ...


> .. the Polish president, appearing at a Polish air base alongside NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, said no planes would be flying any time soon.  “We are supporting Ukrainians with humanitarian aid. However,* we are not going to send any jets to Ukrainian airspace*,” President Andrzej Duda said ...


Say the sentence in yellow, several times, with the emphasis on a different single word every time, to get all the nuances  

* we are not going to send any jets to Ukrainian airspace*
* we are not going to send any jets to Ukrainian airspace*
* we are not going to send any jets to Ukrainian airspace*


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> Yawn.
> The EU just did it outside of NATO.
> Besides note what the NATO Sec Gen said - there will be no transfers of planes flown by NATO members into UKR.
> Nothing saying that UKR Pilots wouldn't be taking them into UKR themselves.



In any event, there's an app for that!









						Why Britain Pulled Aircraft with Horses and Trucks
					

To circumnavigate US neutrality act Britain took delivery of aircraft in US Canadian border and pulled them into Canada by horses or trucks




					medium.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> No there was the New York Times
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How Stalin Hid Ukraine's Famine From the World
> 
> 
> In 1932 and 1933, millions died across the Soviet Union—and the foreign press corps helped cover up the catastrophe.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theatlantic.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New York Times Statement About 1932 Pulitzer Prize Awarded to Walter Duranty | The New York Times Company
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytco.com


I've read stories/books on Duranty before, was a Commie sympathizer from the very early days, like the very beginning.  A useful tool/mouthpiece for the Soviets. The 1930s were a time when large parts of the US was interested/flirted with Communism. 

Have a look at the Ford Hunger March (or as some hard core people in the Detroit/Windsor area still call it 'the Detroit Massacre) in Detroit in 1932. My mother's side of the family (the Polish side) is from Dearborn/Detroit and had a long history with the Trade Unions from the 1920's straight through to the the late 1980s in that area.

EDIT:
As an aside, this fellow was my mother's first cousin through marriage. A strong supporter of the little guy in metro Detroit and of Trade Unions in that area.








						In Death Former Michigan Sen. David Plawecki Still Helping Others
					

The Dearborn Heights resident asked his family to give $100 to each person who attended his funeral with instructions to "pay it forward."




					patch.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Czech_pivo said:


> I've read stories/books on Duranty before, was a Commie sympathizer from the very early days, like the very beginning.  A useful tool/mouthpiece for the Soviets. The 1930s were a time when large parts of the US was interested/flirted with Communism.
> 
> Have a look at the Ford Hunger March (or as some hard core people in the Detroit/Windsor area still call it 'the Detroit Massacre) in Detroit in 1932. My mother's side of the family (the Polish side) is from Dearborn/Detroit and had a long history with the Trade Unions from the 1920's straight through to the the late 1980s in that area.



It's a cultural thing.  

Great Grandad - Secretary of the South Ayrshire Labour Party in Scotland in the Thirties - Coal mining family.


----------



## RangerRay

Eye In The Sky said:


> Biden takes aim at Putin in State of the Union; shells pound Kharkiv as Russia escalates attacks: Recap
> 
> 
> A massive, 40-mile convoy of Russian tanks and vehicles appears to have stalled on its push toward the capital of Kyiv. Tuesday's recap.
> 
> 
> 
> www.usatoday.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A massive, 40-mile convoy of Russian tanks and vehicles appeared to bog down on its  push toward the capital of Kyiv on Tuesday while residential areas of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, were being pounded by Russian shells.
> 
> The Russian military advance drew to within 15 miles of Kyiv’s center amid signs that troops are running out of gas and food, a senior U.S. Defense Department official said Tuesday. Russia has committed about 80% of the combat force President Vladimir Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, the official said.


FFS!  HIT IT!  HIT IT!


----------



## HumblePie

RangerRay said:


> FFS!  HIT IT!  HIT IT!


That may be an option.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498717061496852484


----------



## Altair

RangerRay said:


> FFS!  HIT IT!  HIT IT!


With?


----------



## Spencer100

Czech_pivo said:


> I've read stories/books on Duranty before, was a Commie sympathizer from the very early days, like the very beginning.  A useful tool/mouthpiece for the Soviets. The 1930s were a time when large parts of the US was interested/flirted with Communism.
> 
> Have a look at the Ford Hunger March (or as some hard core people in the Detroit/Windsor area still call it 'the Detroit Massacre) in Detroit in 1932. My mother's side of the family (the Polish side) is from Dearborn/Detroit and had a long history with the Trade Unions from the 1920's straight through to the the late 1980s in that area.
> 
> EDIT:
> As an aside, this fellow was my mother's first cousin through marriage. A strong supporter of the little guy in metro Detroit and of Trade Unions in that area.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In Death Former Michigan Sen. David Plawecki Still Helping Others
> 
> 
> The Dearborn Heights resident asked his family to give $100 to each person who attended his funeral with instructions to "pay it forward."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> patch.com


Happy Puczki day!


----------



## QV

McG said:


> Much like NATO, China is not in a hurry to start absorbing nuke fires.


Agree. But given the apparent catastrophe that is the Russian army, I wonder how effective or serviceable Russia's nuke force is? Not that I want to find out...


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Well one COULD parse the Polish president's statement quoted in the Politico piece ...
> 
> Say the sentence in yellow, several times, with the emphasis on a different single word every time, to get all the nuances
> 
> * we are not going to send any jets to Ukrainian airspace*
> * we are not going to send any jets to Ukrainian airspace*
> * we are not going to send any jets to Ukrainian airspace*


I distinctly remember in Col. Stacey's 2 part novel on the Canadian at War book 1939-1945 by Reader's Digest a picture showing US planes being pulled across the border into Canada by a team of horses prior to 7 Dec 1941.  Does anyone else remember that?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

HumblePie said:


> That may be an option.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498717061496852484


Oh my lord... revenge is a dish best served by Fuel Air burst...


----------



## HumblePie

Altair said:


> With?


Possibly?

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498717061496852484


----------



## Altair

HumblePie said:


> Possibly?
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498717061496852484


This is an insult to the profession of soldiering.


----------



## Altair

QV said:


> Agree. But given the apparent catastrophe that is the Russian army, I wonder how effective or serviceable Russia's nuke force is? Not that I want to find out...


Considering that it's likely the only thing keeping them from being invaded by Jamaica at this point, probably very serviceable.


----------



## Czech_pivo

The financial institute that I currently consult for has just announced a total development freeze in all environments as of right now for 1 week. Somehow tied possibly to Bindens speech tonight.

I’ve not heard about something like this before, no precedent. All projects will be thrown off timelines/deliverables as a result.


----------



## Blackadder1916

Czech_pivo said:


> I distinctly remember in Col. Stacey's 2 part novel on the Canadian at War book 1939-1945 by Reader's Digest a picture showing US planes being pulled across the border into Canada by a team of horses prior to 7 Dec 1941.  Does anyone else remember that?


----------



## FM07

KevinB said:


> Actual Video of Lukashenko briefing
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498673348183744518
> Anyone thinking it stops in the Ukraine is quite frankly smoking crack...


Is that a US 1st Cav patch on that board?


----------



## kev994

QV said:


> Agree. But given the apparent catastrophe that is the Russian army, I wonder how effective or serviceable Russia's nuke force is? Not that I want to find out...


Even if it blows in the silos, enroute, etc, it’s still going to be problematic.


----------



## MilEME09

Kherson has apparently been completely cut off, Russian forces are moving building by building to clear. Unconfirmed reports of Russian forces killing civilians during house clearing. City center remains in Ukrainian hands, but for how long? If there is somewhere a counter attack is needed, it's here.


----------



## GR66

Altair said:


> My wife says the biggest threat to Ukraine now is that their counter attack might be successful enough to take Moscow and force putin to use nukes.


If the Ukrainians are smart any offensive (probably a little premature to think about that yet though) will focus on just returning to the original line of control.  When this is all over Ukraine will still have to live next door to Russia and will have to deal with an ethnic Russian minority within their country.


----------



## Altair

GR66 said:


> If the Ukrainians are smart any offensive (probably a little premature to think about that yet though) will focus on just returning to the original line of control.  When this is all over Ukraine will still have to live next door to Russia and will have to deal with an ethnic Russian minority within their country.


My wife said it in jest.

I think.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

__





						Freeland says new Russia sanctions coming, will choke off Putin's ability to fund war
					





					www.msn.com
				




Defence Minister Anita Anand also says Canada will provide another 1,600 fragmentation vests and just under 400,000 meal packs to Ukraine in addition to previously announced military aid.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Eye In The Sky said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Freeland says new Russia sanctions coming, will choke off Putin's ability to fund war
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.msn.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Defence Minister Anita Anand also says Canada will provide another 1,600 fragmentation vests and just under 400,000 meal packs to Ukraine in addition to previously announced military aid.


I mean.... cool.... but I'm certain that they also need air superiority and missle defence more than protective gear we don't want any more.

Much like the ANA saying "thanks, but no thanks" to our C7s and C7A1s


----------



## RangerRay

Eye In The Sky said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Freeland says new Russia sanctions coming, will choke off Putin's ability to fund war
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.msn.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Defence Minister Anita Anand also says Canada will provide another 1,600 fragmentation vests and just under 400,000 meal packs to Ukraine in addition to previously announced military aid.


Do we even have 400,000 boxes of Lung-in-a-Bag available?


----------



## The Bread Guy

RangerRay said:


> Do we even have 400,000 boxes of Lung-in-a-Bag available?


Anyone in the UKR military who speaks French may not appreciate getting poutine from Canada - unless their info-ops folks do a hot take on "Poutine in a Bag, boiled and eaten"


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498723823159554048


----------



## Eye In The Sky

re: the 400k IMPs....while I agree with the "bullets" part...the "beans" part is a valid part, too.  There's a WHOLE lot of research and science behind "what happens to the brain/body when it's tired and hungry" (impairment, basically);  the RCAF pays attention to that - crew rest, flight feeding...

If they come with heater sleeves...even better.


----------



## Dana381

Czech_pivo said:


> I know its been talked about before on here, the worry that while Vlad is running wild in the Ukraine (pre-invasion thinking of course) that the West's eye would be off the Taiwan 'ball', but any thoughts on China stabbing Vladdy in the back and making a push into some water/resource rich area of Siberia and then saying, what are you going to do about it?  I mean most of Vladdy's troops are far, far away and when they do come back alot won't have any heavy equipment.  The cupboard in the East is almost empty.



China may very well use this time to reclaim Vladivostok. They were pretty pissed when Russia posted Weibo videos celebrating Vladivostok's Birthday.



Eye In The Sky said:


> Biden takes aim at Putin in State of the Union; shells pound Kharkiv as Russia escalates attacks: Recap
> 
> 
> A massive, 40-mile convoy of Russian tanks and vehicles appears to have stalled on its push toward the capital of Kyiv. Tuesday's recap.
> 
> 
> 
> www.usatoday.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A massive, 40-mile convoy of Russian tanks and vehicles appeared to bog down on its  push toward the capital of Kyiv on Tuesday while residential areas of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, were being pounded by Russian shells.
> 
> The Russian military advance drew to within 15 miles of Kyiv’s center amid signs that troops are running out of gas and food, a senior U.S. Defense Department official said Tuesday. Russia has committed about 80% of the combat force President Vladimir Putin deployed to invade Ukraine, the official said.



Of course they are bogged down, There is a shit ton of destroyed and Fuel-less Russian equipment between them and their target. Moving all those dead vehicles to get a convoy through will be a huge job. 

In other news Ukraine paid off all their war debts selling Russian tanks for scrap metal! 😁


----------



## RangerRay

The Bread Guy said:


> Anyone in the UKR military who speaks French may not appreciate getting poutine from Canada - unless their info-ops folks do a hot take on "Poutine in a Bag, boiled and eaten"


I was referring to Ham Omlette. I don’t think there was poutine available when I was in!


----------



## BillN

FM07 said:


> Is that a US 1st Cav patch on that board?


Yes, sure looks like it.


----------



## suffolkowner

I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop on this. Fully expected worse news with respect to Kiev today. The delay has to benefit the Ukrainians doesn't it?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Altair said:


> This is an insult to the profession of soldiering.



Well, they ARE mostly conscripts.


----------



## TacticalTea

The Bread Guy said:


> Anyone in the UKR military who speaks French may not appreciate getting poutine from Canada - unless their info-ops folks do a hot take on "Poutine in a Bag, boiled and eaten"


We could get some hilarious footage from the frontlines out of that!


RangerRay said:


> I was referring to Ham Omlette. I don’t think there was poutine available when I was in!


There is, now. It's mostly chicken with fries and cheese, and I think the gravy might be adapted to be healthier or just longer-lasting. Definitely not the bona fide experience, but it's still an enjoyable meal.


suffolkowner said:


> I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop on this. Fully expected worse news with respect to Kiev today. The delay has to benefit the Ukrainians doesn't it?


The slower Russia encircles Ukrainian cities, the longer those cities can continue receiving foreign (and domestic) aid.


----------



## Brad Sallows

Re: speed.  Ground doesn't really firm up until mid-to-late spring, so the longer they're not in cities, the longer they're not fighting on hard ground.


----------



## MilEME09

rmc_wannabe said:


> I mean.... cool.... but I'm certain that they also need air superiority and missle defence more than protective gear we don't want any more.
> 
> Much like the ANA saying "thanks, but no thanks" to our C7s and C7A1s


We would have to have AA to be able to give it.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498805616688697348
If you combine this with the reports about Russia running out of advanced munitions within 10 days, read as Kyiv will not likely fall.


----------



## daftandbarmy

suffolkowner said:


> I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop on this. Fully expected worse news with respect to Kiev today. The delay has to benefit the Ukrainians doesn't it?



The Russian Bear seems a bit groggy after waking up from its winter hibernation:

Russians running out of food, gas: US official​The Russian forces charging toward Kyiv haven't made progress in the last day as they face Ukrainian resistance and low food and gas supply, a senior U.S. defense official told reporters Tuesday.

However, it could be a deliberate pause, the official said. "Part of the stall could be ... as a result of their own self-determined sort of pause in operations -- that they are possibly regrouping, rethinking, reevaluating," the official said.









						Russia-Ukraine updates: US to ban Russian carriers from its airspace
					

Live updates on the Russia-Ukraine crisis.




					abcnews.go.com


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498806760693542914
Unlikely that high as 800, but even 10% of that, 80 would still be a major tactical victory.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Dana381 said:


> Of course they are bogged down, There is a shit ton of destroyed and Fuel-less Russian equipment between them and their target. Moving all those dead vehicles to get a convoy through will be a huge job.



There's that...but that's something an ARV or equivalent would make short work of in theory.  I'll go out on a limb and say "most armies plan for this contingency" and usually have some kind of recce ahead to not only find "problems" but to then find alt routes around them.  Like a big, Convoy Escost task, with MPs and the whole sha-bang.


they might be having resup problems in their own supply trains
they might be taking some delaying actions on defiles/gaps/flanks

Whatever the reason...they're on a fairly slow ROA;  whether it is deliberate or not...who knows.


----------



## KevinB

Eye In The Sky said:


> There's that...but that's something an ARV or equivalent would make short work of in theory.  I'll go out on a limb and say "most armies plan for this contingency" and usually have some kind of recce ahead to not only find "problems" but to then find alt routes around them.  Like a big, Convoy Escost task, with MPs and the whole sha-bang.
> 
> 
> they might be having resup problems in their own supply trains
> they might be taking some delaying actions on defiles/gaps/flanks
> 
> Whatever the reason...their on a fairly slow ROA;  whether is deliberate or not...


Assuming 1) the MP’s aren’t running the fuel selling ring 2) the Recce units didn’t desert 3) The ARV’s where not sold to Ukrainians to recover the same vehicles as they pay better…

The glaring issues with a bear 80% conscript force.


----------



## Dana381

Eye In The Sky said:


> There's that...but that's something an ARV or equivalent would make short work of in theory.  I'll go out on a limb and say "most armies plan for this contingency" and usually have some kind of recce ahead to not only find "problems" but to then find alt routes around them.  Like a big, Convoy Escost task, with MPs and the whole sha-bang.
> 
> 
> they might be having resup problems in their own supply trains
> they might be taking some delaying actions on defiles/gaps/flanks
> 
> Whatever the reason...their on a fairly slow ROA;  whether it is deliberate or not...who knows.



ARV's would take too long, what is the Russian equivalent of this? Just push them off the road.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498789059124158467
Kherson may have fallen


----------



## Eye In The Sky

KevinB said:


> Assuming 1) the MP’s aren’t running the fuel selling ring 2) the Recce units didn’t desert 3) The ARV’s where not sold to Ukrainians to recover the same vehicles as they pay better…
> 
> The glaring issues with a bear 80% conscript force.



Yup, I'll be honest - I'm a bit perplexed by this convoy, and the "looking to make some sense of it" part of my brain is hoping they're getting held up at defiles, getting nibbled at from the front, flanks or something...I hope they're paying a price.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Dana381 said:


> ARV's would take too long, what is the Russian equivalent of this? Just push them off the road.
> 
> View attachment 69098



Maybe that IS their ARV and that's what is (1) slowing them down and (2) using up all their fuel....


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498766726372155399


----------



## Kirkhill

Blackadder1916 said:


>


Along with a useful trade in international pilots









						The Polish Pilots Who Flew In The Battle Of Britain
					

On 1 September 1939 the German Army, supported by the Air Force (Luftwaffe) and Navy (Kriegsmarine) invaded Poland from three sides. Polish defences, already strained under a powerful and innovative German assault, collapsed shortly after the Soviets launched their own invasion from the east on...




					www.iwm.org.uk
				












						No. 312 (Czechoslovak) Squadron RAF - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				












						Eagle Squadrons - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				









						Non-British personnel in the RAF during the Battle of Britain - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




And continuing the Volunteer theme, but in another area entirely









						Popski's Private Army - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				






I have my principles.   But, if you don't like those I have other ones.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498766726372155399



Was it you, or someone else, that said something the other day about "Russian SOF actions not making the news yet"?


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498766726372155399


Outrageous.

Where have manners gone? Do they not start by simply feeding him estrogen?

Also: 2022 State of the Union Address | The White House

State of the Union address in 4 minutes. Either a massive turn (military action, RUS O&G ban) or nothing at all. The latter seems more likely.


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498805616688697348
> If you combine this with the reports about Russia running out of advanced munitions within 10 days, read as Kyiv will not likely fall.




Historically many sieges failed because the besiegers lacked the resources to sustain it - fuel for winter fires, clean water, adequate food and good sanitation.  Many failed because dirty soldiers started dying of disease.

The people on the inside generally had the advantage in having access to shelter, waster, fuel (even if it is just the furniture) and sanitation.

It takes a disciplined army to hold a siege line for more than a few weeks.


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498770380231639042
Someone is a fan.  It meshes with a few other things I heard about her in the background doing a lot of work and phoning a few people.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Assuming 1) the MP’s aren’t running the fuel selling ring 2) the Recce units didn’t desert 3) The ARV’s where not sold to Ukrainians to recover the same vehicles as they pay better…
> 
> The glaring issues with a bear 80% conscript force.


Except that Russia is supposed to be 70 percent contract soldiers.

And I mean, fair. Even contract soldiers would suffer from low moral if not being fed and supplied.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Except that Russia is supposed to be 70 percent contract soldiers.
> 
> And I mean, fair. Even contract soldiers would suffer from low moral if not being fed and supplied.


Key word supposed to be.  They can't retain close to 80% of them after one period.
   I suspect if one was to do an actual audit of the Russian Army it would be enlightening 
*I'm thinking Putin might be wishing he hadn't gotten rid of some of the reformers and maybe hired an IG...


----------



## KevinB

Well I guess that answered the question as to where their Airborne Forces are...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498836229126860812


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498812854383882240


----------



## HiTechComms

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498812854383882240


With all this talk of how bad the Russian logistics are when looking at this map All I see is 4 fronts the Russians are invading from, that is still a feat.
I have a bad feeling that Ukraine is going to be partitioned like Poland was for 130 years.  I its almost as if Russia wants to completely cut Ukraine off from the Black sea in order to secure water to Crimea. This is Georgia and Chechnya all over again.


----------



## TacticalTea

-US airspace closed to RUSSIA

-60 Billion barrels of oil released from Global reserves.

-''Russia cannot vanquish the resolve of the *Iranian *people.''

-Biden, SOTU


----------



## suffolkowner

HiTechComms said:


> With all this talk of how bad the Russian logistics are when looking at this map All I see is 4 fronts the Russians are invading from, that is still a feat.
> I have a bad feeling that Ukraine is going to be partitioned like Poland was for 130 years.  I its almost as if Russia wants to completely cut Ukraine off from the Black see in order to secure water to Crimea. This is Georgia and Chechnya all over again.


Russian progress on the east bank may be inevitable but the Ukrainians are going to make them pay a heavy price


----------



## Eye In The Sky

KevinB said:


> The glaring issues with a bear 80% conscript force.



I realized I had no idea how the Russian Army intake/trg/employment was (the last thing I'd really read on the subj was Inside The Soviet Army, 1984 vintage).

I read thru this (assuming it's credible):









						Russian Armed Forces
					

The Russian enlisted education system is unlike the U.S. system. It is not designed to develop well rounded leaders, it is instead designed to develop technically proficient professionals.



					www.armyupress.army.mil
				




A few big take-aways IMO...

1.  Russia has maintained a hybrid system of conscription and contract service to the present day.5 In this system, officers, not NCOs, are the primary trainers of the platoon.

2.  There is often a Western assumption that Russian contract sergeants are distributed throughout the ranks and are placed in positions of leadership over conscripts. A more accurate term for Russian contract sergeants (NCOs) would probably be “enlisted professionals” because in the Russian system members are designated as either “conscript” or “contract serviceman,” and there is apparently little interaction between these enlisted personnel types. In general, contract servicemen fill “trigger puller” positions and require advanced skills and training. Conscripts usually fill positions that require little training, such as drivers, cooks, laborers, or lower-level maintenance personnel.  (concriptions are only 1 year period of service)

3.  The Russian enlisted education system is unlike the U.S. system. It is not designed to develop well rounded leaders, it is instead designed to develop technically proficient professionals. The Russians have no concept of “key developmental positions” or “out of branch assignments.” All assignments involve one of three things: Learning their profession, practicing their profession, or teaching their profession to the next generation. In this sense the Russian enlisted education system is identical to their officer education system. Although Russians do not view their enlisted professionals as “leaders”, they still greatly value the contributions these personnel provide

I wonder, with the Ukraine, how much of a factor this observation is having:

_Probably the strongest motivator for Russia’s military leadership to support the formation of a contract NCO system is Russia’s lessons learned from Chechnya and other modern conflicts. Local and regional conflicts, rather than large-scale high-speed maneuver are seen as the most likely manifestation of future warfare. In addition, warfare will also now involve “indirect and asymmetric methods” and a general blurring of the lines between the tactical, operational, and strategic levels of military operations. The implication for Russia’s enlisted personnel is that conscripts will be unable to be effective warfighters on the modern battlefield because the conscription period in the Russian Federation has been reduced to one year._


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> Russian progress on the east bank may be inevitable but the Ukrainians are going to make them pay a heavy price


My concern is how much longer can Ukraine wait for more troops? Kherson has apparently fallen Mariupol is surrounded and under seige, without support it will likely fall too, Russia is kicking up its tempo again, and it is much more aggressive.


----------



## dapaterson

Every. Log brief.  Ever.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498750495841783815


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> My concern is how much longer can Ukraine wait for more troops? Kherson has apparently fallen Mariupol is surrounded and under seige, without support it will likely fall too, Russia is kicking up its tempo again, and it is much more aggressive.


Which is why I say - lets fight them now on our terms.


----------



## HiTechComms

MilEME09 said:


> My concern is how much longer can Ukraine wait for more troops? Kherson has apparently fallen Mariupol is surrounded and under seige, without support it will likely fall too, Russia is kicking up its tempo again, and it is much more aggressive.


They are going for capitulation. They are either waiting on Negotiations or delaying with Negotiations. I just cannot see how Russia thinks they can hold such a huge area, simply they cannot afford it militarily or financially. This will devolve into another Afghanistan for Russians. I think there will definitely be an uptick with use of IED soon enough. 
Maybe Putin has sold him self the idea that all Ukrainians are wanting to be part of Russia, maybe eastern Ukraine but not the west. Not sure how popular that will be in Russia once military members start coming home with missing limbs.


----------



## Haggis

Eye In The Sky said:


> Was it you, or someone else, that said something the other day about "Russian SOF actions not making the news yet"?


👋


----------



## OceanBonfire

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498710993391828994


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> Which is why I say - lets fight them now on our terms.


Like I've said, let's get Belarus out of this fight before their troops can turn this. Give Ukraine anti ship missiles so they can wipe out the black sea fleet.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Truth.…


----------



## MilEME09

daftandbarmy said:


> Truth.…


----------



## Kat Stevens

I’m sure Vlad is losing a ton of sleep because AI is accusing him of not being a nice person.


----------



## Dana381

If the USAF really wants to divest A10's the could park a few really, really close to Ukraine border and leave the keys in them. And maybe someone could take a sharpie and write Ukrainian translations on the consoles just for fun. 😁


----------



## MilEME09

Absolutely Massive Explosion Recorded Inside of Kharkiv
					

An absolutely massive explosion was recorded inside of Kharkiv. Allegedly the shockwave from the blast seen in this video was felt up to 15 kilometers away from the blast origin.




					funker530.com
				




Looks like big toys are coming out


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498835933180964865
Another Airborne landing attempt by VDV into Kharkiv. Seems suicidal....


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> Absolutely Massive Explosion Recorded Inside of Kharkiv
> 
> 
> An absolutely massive explosion was recorded inside of Kharkiv. Allegedly the shockwave from the blast seen in this video was felt up to 15 kilometers away from the blast origin.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> funker530.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Looks like big toys are coming out
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498835933180964865
> Another Airborne landing attempt by VDV into Kharkiv. Seems suicidal....


Let’s pray it is suicidal for the Russians. 
Thoughts on how long paras can hold out with the ammo they jump/land with if in sustained firefights?


----------



## Zipperhead99

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498805616688697348
> If you combine this with the reports about Russia running out of advanced munitions within 10 days, read as Kyiv will not likely fall.


That "30 days to take Kyiv" statement is extremely optimistic: it took the Russians six weeks both times to take Gronzy and it is like a small city of 200k, Kyiv is 3 million!


----------



## Zipperhead99

Czech_pivo said:


> Let’s pray it is suicidal for the Russians.
> Thoughts on how long paras can hold out with the ammo they jump/land with if in sustained firefights?


Unless Russian mech forces are able to link up with them in time....we have seen how that has sometimes failed in history


----------



## RaceAddict

It's the little things in life:









						Hackers rename Putin's superyacht  'FCKPTN' in maritime data breach
					

A group of Anonymous hackers have renamed the superyacht reportedly owned by Russian President Vladimir Putin 'FCKPTN' and changed its destination to 'hell' by manipulating its maritime data. The hack reportedly took place on 26 February and data on the Marine Traffic website is still showing...




					marineindustrynews.co.uk
				





__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498042999368040449


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498669420943712269


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Let’s pray it is suicidal for the Russians.
> Thoughts on how long paras can hold out with the ammo they jump/land with if in sustained firefights?


72hrs max, more likely number under 20hrs.
  But if they get linked up...


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> 72hrs max, more likely number under 20hrs.
> But if they get linked up...


Any ideas on which part of Kharkiv the paras landed?
I imagine it must have been a low level jump in order to try and keep them in a tight landing zone.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Czech_pivo said:


> Any ideas on which part of Kharkiv the paras landed?
> I imagine it must have been a low level jump in order to try and keep them in a tight landing zone.


My money is on the outskirts North East of the city. Problem will be getting link up before the shelling stops. If they move into the city before they get resupply, it's going to be a turkey shoot for the defenders fighting house to house.


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> Any ideas on which part of Kharkiv the paras landed?
> I imagine it must have been a low level jump in order to try and keep them in a tight landing zone.


Quick look at Google maps shows a lot of hills, not a very good LZ. Best area is a flat zone south of the industrial district in the SE.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

KevinB said:


> 72hrs max, more likely number under 20hrs.
> But if they get linked up...



Or air-drop resupplied...


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> Quick look at Google maps shows a lot of hills, not a very good LZ. Best area is a flat zone south of the industrial district in the SE.
> View attachment 69103


I was wondering about the area just west of the water treatment plant, in Dudkivka. Take the water treatment facility and you can pull a lot of strings.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> 72hrs max, more likely number under 20hrs.
> But if they get linked up...


9 days









						Operation Market Garden - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> Quick look at Google maps shows a lot of hills, not a very good LZ. Best area is a flat zone south of the industrial district in the SE.
> View attachment 69103


BBC reports they landed on the north-east side of the Kharkiv.


----------



## dapaterson

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498745941909721094


----------



## Kilted

TacticalTea said:


> -US airspace closed to RUSSIA
> 
> -60 Billion barrels of oil released from Global reserves.
> 
> -''Russia cannot vanquish the resolve of the *Iranian *people.''
> 
> -Biden, SOTU


I wasn't sure if I actually heard that.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498867200920375297


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498860217010122754

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498859158644436996

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498866224125648898


----------



## rmc_wannabe

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498859158644436996


Add "Attacking a military aid station" to the war crimes bingo card.

Bastards, all of them.


----------



## Zipperhead99

Time for a morale boost!  Such a great song! BTW, the second video has English subtitles


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498692841526251526


----------



## MilEME09

Ukraine running out of ammunition as donated weapons caught in logjam at Polish border
					

'Everyone is donating stuff, including the Germans, Finns. But NATO troops can't deliver it into the country. Ukrainians need to come in convoys to pick it up'




					nationalpost.com
				




What's good the help if it can't get to the front?


----------



## Zipperhead99

daftandbarmy said:


> Truth.…
> 
> View attachment 69102


The Russians should be thankful that they are fighting Ukraine and not NATO, otherwise that convoy heading to Kyiv would become the "Highway of Death" Part 2


----------



## Zipperhead99

This is crazy if it is true









						Russia Claims It Has Seized Control Of The Southern Ukrainian City Of Kherson
					

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is now on its seventh day and by every indication, it is entering into a much more brutal phase.




					www.thedrive.com


----------



## MilEME09

Zipperhead99 said:


> This is crazy if it is true
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia Claims It Has Seized Control Of The Southern Ukrainian City Of Kherson
> 
> 
> Russia's invasion of Ukraine is now on its seventh day and by every indication, it is entering into a much more brutal phase.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedrive.com


It also would mean elements of the FSB are not happy with Czar Putin.


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498920532485582850


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498775170575699978








						Turkey says Russia will comply with its request not to send warships into the Black Sea.
					






					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498775170575699978
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Turkey says Russia will comply with its request not to send warships into the Black Sea.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com


Where has this Erdogan been for the past 10 years?


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Where has this Erdogan been for the past 10 years?


Making money off Russia, and trying to straddle the fence.  Seems one of his balls may be still caught on the fence though


----------



## OldSolduer

KevinB said:


> Making money off Russia, and trying to straddle the fence.  Seems one of his balls may be still caught on the fence though


And trying to resurrect the Ottoman Empire.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Making money off Russia, and trying to straddle the fence.  Seems one of his balls may be still caught on the fence though


One ball is on the Russian side of the fence and the other is on the NATO side of the fence and he's hoping to keep the pair of them....


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> One ball is on the Russian side of the fence and the other is on the NATO side of the fence and he's hoping to keep the pair of them....


One usually ends a eunuch that way.


----------



## tomydoom

KevinB said:


> One usually ends a eunuch that way.


The Ottomans often did have eunuchs in very senior roles, so there is precedent.


----------



## KevinB

hmm








						Army activates pre-positioned stocks for first time in wake of Ukraine invasion
					

Armored brigade soldiers are being outfitted with thousands of vehicles and equipment pieces from Army Prepositioned Stocks-2 for the first time in the program’s history.




					www.armytimes.com
				




Well Vlad, you made us break the glass...


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498766726372155399


May not be the first team, according to UKR media








						Kadyrov forces unit, aiming to kill Zelensky, eliminated – NSDC Secretary
					

Kadyrov forces unit, which aimed to kill President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, was eliminated. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				



Usual grain of salt needed, of course, but interesting quote from the head of UKR's nat'l security council:


> ... "We are already aware of the special operation that was to be carried out by Kadyrov forces unit. *We received the information from representatives of Russia’s Federal Security Service who do not want to take part in this bloody war*. The Kadyrov forces unit, which came to kill our President, was eliminated," ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

HiTechComms said:


> ... I just cannot see how Russia thinks they can hold such a huge area, simply they cannot afford it militarily or financially. This will devolve into another Afghanistan for Russians ...


Yup.


HiTechComms said:


> ... Maybe Putin has sold him self the idea that all Ukrainians are wanting to be part of Russia ...


Not the first guy in history in his type of position to believe his own press.  To the end?  We'll see ...


----------



## Altair

The Bread Guy said:


> Yup.
> 
> Not the first guy in history in his type of position to believe his own press.  To the end?  We'll see ...




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498953640052146181
Vlad doesn't plan to annex and hold Ukraine at all.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498816008756383744


----------



## tomydoom

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498816008756383744


Can twitter ban them for fake news, they way they did Trump? What horsehit.


----------



## KevinB

tomydoom said:


> Can twitter ban them for fake news, they way they did Trump? What horsehit.


Yeah pretty Fucked Up.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498816008756383744


Perfect summary of the RUS narrative talking points in English.


----------



## tomydoom

How's this for fucked up, the Russians are arresting primary school kids for laying flowers at the Ukrainian embassy.









						Desperate Putin arresting PRIMARY SCHOOL children says politician
					

According to photographs shared on Tuesday by opposition politician Ilya Yashin, children are among those that have been snatched by officers in anti-war protests in Russia.




					www.dailymail.co.uk
				




It's the Mail, which is a fairly shyte paper; but I have seen it on the BBC as well.


----------



## KevinB

Joyride UKR style

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499033447414837250


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> Joyride UKR style
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499033447414837250



That would be me and my Class A Homies.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Joyride UKR style
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499033447414837250


I usually act like I have answers to problems. 

What I would do differently to achieve different results. 

Some people may not agree with my solutions, or opinions, but I can at least say that I have them. 

But for the love of everything good in this world, I would not know how, at this point, to fix the Russian military.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> I usually act like I have answers to problems.
> 
> What I would do differently to achieve different results.
> 
> Some people may not agree with my solutions, or opinions, but I can at least say that I have them.
> 
> But for the love of everything good in this world, I would not know how, at this point, to fix the Russian military.


I have an easy 4 step plan

Step1: Kill Putin
Step2: Talk to NATO about withdrawal, and security guarantees of Russian territory (roll back to the original Federation lines)
Step3: Hold Democratic Election with UN/EU/NATO monitoring
Step4: Rebuild Country as Western Democracy


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> I have an easy 4 step plan
> 
> Step1: Kill Putin
> Step2: Talk to NATO about withdrawal, and security guarantees of Russian territory (roll back to the original Federation lines)
> Step3: Hold Democratic Election with UN/EU/NATO monitoring
> Step4: Rebuild Country as Western Democracy


That would fix Russia the country. I'm talking their military.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> That would fix Russia the country. I'm talking their military.


At the end of the Day ones Military reflects the country.
  If your corrupt as shit, that flows down into the .Mil too


----------



## Remius

Altair said:


> That would fix Russia the country. I'm talking their military.


Look at how the UKR military was improving and being fixed.  Apply to Russia.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> At the end of the Day ones Military reflects the country.
> If your corrupt as shit, that flows down into the .Mil too


Yeah, sure. 

But I'm operating with the narrow arcs of fix the military within their current system. Putin dumped billions into modernizing the Russian Military. They moved away from conscripts to contract soldiers. Yet they are still hot garbage.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Altair said:


> I usually act like I have answers to problems.
> 
> What I would do differently to achieve different results.
> 
> Some people may not agree with my solutions, or opinions, but I can at least say that I have them.
> 
> But for the love of everything good in this world, I would not know how, at this point, to fix the Russian military.



The Finns fixed them, then destroyed them. 

History may not repeat itself, but sometimes it rhymes:

Winter War

The *Winter War*,[F 7] also known as *First Soviet-Finnish War*, was a war between the Soviet Union (USSR) and Finland. It began with a Soviet invasion of Finland on 30 November 1939, three months after the outbreak of World War II; the war ended three and a half months later with the Moscow Peace Treaty on 13 March 1940. Despite superior military strength, especially in tanks and aircraft, the Soviet Union suffered severe losses and initially made little headway. The League of Nations deemed the attack illegal and expelled the Soviet Union from the organisation.









						Winter War - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Altair

daftandbarmy said:


> The Finns fixed them, then destroyed them.
> 
> History may not repeat itself, but sometimes it rhymes:
> 
> Winter War
> 
> The *Winter War*,[F 7] also known as *First Soviet-Finnish War*, was a war between the Soviet Union (USSR) and Finland. It began with a Soviet invasion of Finland on 30 November 1939, three months after the outbreak of World War II; the war ended three and a half months later with the Moscow Peace Treaty on 13 March 1940. Despite superior military strength, especially in tanks and aircraft, the Soviet Union suffered severe losses and initially made little headway. The League of Nations deemed the attack illegal and expelled the Soviet Union from the organisation.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Winter War - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org


Not what I meant by fix.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Yeah, sure.
> 
> But I'm operating with the narrow arcs of fix the military within their current system. Putin dumped billions into modernizing the Russian Military. They moved away from conscripts to contract soldiers. Yet they are still hot garbage.


They didn't though -- they fired the architect of the reforms.
  They put face coverings over everything and didn't learn from the Regan Era buildup that they don't have the GDP to sustain a massive military.

Most of Putin's billions went back into the Oligarchs - the Military was really just a mask to funnel it through.
  Few of the contract soldiers stay - so it's still effectively a conscript army.

Unless Russia totally changes its entire culture - the Military won't change.

I even told the Russians that  

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499040311200342024


----------



## Remius

Altair said:


> Yeah, sure.
> 
> But I'm operating with the narrow arcs of fix the military within their current system. Putin dumped billions into modernizing the Russian Military. They moved away from conscripts to contract soldiers. Yet they are still hot garbage.


Get rid of conscription.  
Develop the Officer Corp 
Create and actually professionalize your NCO Corps
Change doctrine


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> They didn't though -- they fired the architect of the reforms.


I didn't know that. 


KevinB said:


> They put face coverings over everything and didn't learn from the Regan Era buildup that they don't have the GDP to sustain a massive military.


With higher gas prices they probably could. Even with sanctions in place from 2014, the Russian economy was growing based just on rising fuel prices.


KevinB said:


> Most of Putin's billions went back into the Oligarchs - the Military was really just a mask to funnel it through.


Ah. That would explain the hot garbage we are seeing.


KevinB said:


> Few of the contract soldiers stay - so it's still effectively a conscript army.


Well, its a contract army, but a contract army without a lot of institutionalized experience. 


KevinB said:


> Unless Russia totally changes its entire culture - the Military won't change.


The soviets were corrupt as shit and they still rocked Germany in the 1940s


----------



## OldSolduer

KevinB said:


> Unless Russia totally changes its entire culture - the Military won't change.


There in lies the problem does it not? 
Russia has zero experience with democracy and its a completely off the wall idea to them. Russia has been governed by czars and dictators since - well all the time. 

If we want Russia to reform its not going to happen soon, unless there is another revolution.


----------



## KevinB

Remius said:


> Get rid of conscription.
> Develop the Officer Corp
> Create and actually professionalize your NCO Corps
> Change doctrine


They tried - the System (Oligarchs) didn't like it.


----------



## Altair

Remius said:


> Get rid of conscription.
> Develop the Officer Corp
> Create and actually professionalize your NCO Corps
> Change doctrine


I think these two are probably key. 

Conscription is "gone" replaced by short term contract soldiers. I cannot judge their doctrine properly. If the USA adopted their doctrine with its professional soldiers would we see much better results? Likely.


----------



## OldSolduer

KevinB said:


> They tried - the System (Oligarchs) didn't like it.


The one experiment with democracy saw the rise of the Russian Mob and the rise of super wealthy oligarchs - and many "western" folks went right along with it.


----------



## TacticalTea

Altair said:


> I didn't know that.
> 
> With higher gas prices they probably could. Even with sanctions in place from 2014, the Russian economy was growing based just on rising fuel prices.
> 
> Ah. That would explain the hot garbage we are seeing.
> 
> Well, its a contract army, but a contract army without a lot of institutionalized experience.
> 
> The soviets were corrupt as shit and they still rocked Germany in the 1940s


Rocked is a bit of an overstatement.

Germany was a single country fighting a war on multiple fronts.

By the time the tide turned at Moscow, Germany was running on fumes.


----------



## Remius

TacticalTea said:


> Rocked is a bit of an overstatement.
> 
> Germany was a single country fighting a war on multiple fronts.
> 
> By the time the tide turned at Moscow, Germany was running on fumes.


Agreed.  There were a lot factors involved.  I wouldn’t say rocked either.


----------



## Altair

TacticalTea said:


> Rocked is a bit of an overstatement.
> 
> Germany was a single country fighting a war on multiple fronts.
> 
> By the time the tide turned at Moscow, Germany was running on fumes.


Sure, but the Soviets actually...I dunno, fought properly?


----------



## OldSolduer

TacticalTea said:


> Rocked is a bit of an overstatement.
> 
> Germany was a single country fighting a war on multiple fronts.
> 
> By the time the tide turned at Moscow, Germany was running on fumes.


Plus the alleged "corruption' in the Red Army in WW2 was not extensive. Corrupt people were executed or sent to the front ,


----------



## Remius

Altair said:


> Sure, but the Soviets actually...I dunno, fought properly?


Not sure it was even that. 

They had way more manpower to throw at the Germans.  Doesn’t mean they actually fought “properly”.

They certainly did some things right either by necessity/luck or by design.

The German leadership also made a lot of mistakes and assumptions.


----------



## OldSolduer

Remius said:


> They had way more manpower to throw at the Germans.  Doesn’t mean they actually fought “properly”.


Quantity has a quality all its own. It is reported that Uncle Joe Stalin said that.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Altair said:


> Conscription is "gone" replaced by short term contract soldiers.



Not quite...unless this is outdated.









						The Best or Worst of Both Worlds?
					

This article is part of the CSIS executive education program Understanding the Russian Military Today. Thirty years after the Cold War ended, conscription is making a comeback in Europe. Sweden reinstated selective conscription in 2018, joining the rest of the Nordic nations. Lithuania returned...




					www.csis.org


----------



## Altair

Remius said:


> Not sure it was even that.
> 
> They had way more manpower to throw at the Germans.  Doesn’t mean they actually fought “properly”.
> 
> They certainly did some things right either by necessity/luck or by design.
> 
> The German leadership also made a lot of mistakes and assumptions.


Okay, sure. But if Soviet soldiers were abandoning tanks, abandoning their posts, not being fed, not being supplied with ammunition and fuel, they would not have made it to Berlin. 

What we are seeing from Russia right now...this is on another level. This is 3rd world militia type nonsense.


----------



## Altair

Eye In The Sky said:


> Not quite...unless this is outdated.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Best or Worst of Both Worlds?
> 
> 
> This article is part of the CSIS executive education program Understanding the Russian Military Today. Thirty years after the Cold War ended, conscription is making a comeback in Europe. Sweden reinstated selective conscription in 2018, joining the rest of the Nordic nations. Lithuania returned...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.csis.org


Yeah, gone is not the right term. Its not the bulk of the Russian military, it's about 30 something percent.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> Yeah, sure.
> 
> But I'm operating with the narrow arcs of fix the military within their current system. Putin dumped billions into modernizing the Russian Military. They moved away from conscripts to contract soldiers. Yet they are still hot garbage.


Alot of that reflects on their Officer Corps.  I've not seeing many clips of Lt or Capt's being captured, just green recruits.  So it begs the question, where are their 1st and 2nd line Officers?  Where are the platoon and company leaders? If they aren't up front with their troops then they have no ability to control contact with the enemy and stop the sabotaging of equipment, abandoning of equipment, desertion or surrendering.


----------



## QV

This is only a few days into it. A lot can happen and change over the next several weeks. I'm not sure what to believe in all the reporting.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Altair said:


> Yeah, gone is not the right term. Its not the bulk of the Russian military, it's about 30 something percent.



From that article (Sep 2020...so dated somewhat):

Since the commencement of the Serdyukov and Shoygu reforms in 2008, Russia has reduced its conscription term from 24 months to 12 and instituted the large-scale use of professional enlisted soldiers. Russia currently fields an active-duty military of just under 1 million men. Of this force, approximately 260,000 are conscripts and 410,000 are contract soldiers (_kontraktniki_). The shortened 12-month conscript term provides at most five months of utilization time for these servicemen. Conscripts remain about a quarter of the force even in elite commando (_spetsnaz_) units.


----------



## Altair

Eye In The Sky said:


> From that article (Sep 2020...so dated somewhat):
> 
> Since the commencement of the Serdyukov and Shoygu reforms in 2008, Russia has reduced its conscription term from 24 months to 12 and instituted the large-scale use of professional enlisted soldiers. Russia currently fields an active-duty military of just under 1 million men. Of this force, approximately 260,000 are conscripts and 410,000 are contract soldiers (_kontraktniki_). The shortened 12-month conscript term provides at most five months of utilization time for these servicemen. Conscripts remain about a quarter of the force even in elite commando (_spetsnaz_) units.


38 percent?


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> Okay, sure. But if Soviet soldiers were abandoning tanks, abandoning their posts, not being fed, not being supplied with ammunition and fuel, they would not have made it to Berlin.
> 
> What we are seeing from Russia right now...this is on another level. This is 3rd world militia type nonsense.


They ate off the land - anything and everything that could be eaten, was eaten.


----------



## KevinB

OldSolduer said:


> The one experiment with democracy saw the rise of the Russian Mob and the rise of super wealthy oligarchs - and many "western" folks went right along with it.


Agreed on that end.  I think another example of a lack of foresight on the West to make any longer term understanding of what that would cause.  

Democracy is messy and it need support in its birthing.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> They ate off the land - anything and everything that could be eaten, was eaten.


And that worked for Napoleon, until he reached Russia in winter. 

That isn't going to work now, in Ukraine. Especially on the fuel front, you cannot scavenge for fuel to keep an armored div rolling.


----------



## KevinB

OldSolduer said:


> Quantity has a quality all its own. It is reported that Uncle Joe Stalin said that.


And we have seen countless results that Quality can trump Quantity as long as it has enough ammo


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> And that worked for Napoleon, until he reached Russia in winter.
> 
> That isn't going to work now, in Ukraine. Especially on the fuel front, you cannot scavenge for fuel to keep an armored div rolling.


Especially if a lot have zero interest in actually moving and would be just fine selling it to finance a relocation.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498968753098403844
Good news for Ukrainians come tax time


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, the UKR Border Gd Svc says "women and children first as you leave" ...








						In the context of the humanitarian crisis, the priority of crossing the border of Ukraine is given to women and children
					





					dpsu.gov.ua
				



... "let the RUS/rebel press gangs begin" ...








						The Russian Federation uses people mobilized from the temporarily occupied territory of eastern Ukraine in the Crimean direction.
					





					dpsu.gov.ua
				



... and "here's some advice if you're coming to join the UKR foreign legion"


> We are often approached by foreigners who want to fight against Russian aggression side by side with Ukrainians. In this regard, we share the Ukrinform publication, which contains step-by-step instructions. First of all, foreigners who want to defend the values of the democracy in Ukraine with weapons in their hands should apply to the Embassy of Ukraine in their country. We remind, that since March 1, by the Decree of the President of Ukraine for the period of martial law there is introduced a visa-free entry to Ukraine for citizens of foreign states, wishing to join the International Legion of Defense of Ukraine, except citizens of the state recognized as aggressor-state.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Especially if a lot have zero interest in actually moving and would be just fine selling it to finance a relocation.


Like I said. 

The Russian military is so incredibly FUBAR right now I wouldn't know where to start in fixing the damn thing. 

And this flies contrary to my doctrine of having solutions for things I complain about.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Considering the cautionary tail of ISIS and the Taliban maybe we should stop trying to fix the militaries of potential (and formerly literal) adversaries.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498968753098403844
> Good news for Ukrainians come tax time


While funny, we’ve seen a LOT of other places what happens when locals can hang on to significant military gear…
   I suspect they will get a tax credit when all is said and done for donation to the state.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498968753098403844
> Good news for Ukrainians come tax time


There are about to be some very wealthy or very well armed farmers in Ukraine should they survive this invasion.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> And that worked for Napoleon, until he reached Russia in winter.
> 
> That isn't going to work now, in Ukraine. Especially on the fuel front, you cannot scavenge for fuel to keep an armored div rolling.


Have a read - 

Wartime cuisine: What did Soviet soldiers eat during World War II?​
_Cooks did what they could to vary the rations, which became increasingly meagre towards the end of the war. For instance, they made carrot tea by grating carrots, and then boiled it with Laetiporus sulphureus tree fungus. The carrot gave the infusion a sweetish taste and the fungus a pleasant dark hue.

Closer to the end of the war in the spring of 1944 the Soviet army received cornmeal from the allies. *Some cooks did not know what to do with it* and added it to bread, causing it to become crumbly and quickly stale. This naturally angered the men who began to curse the cooks.

In his memoirs, one war veteran described how a cook sent the men to gather herbs in the steppe (saltbush, sorrel, alfalfa, wild garlic, etc) so that he could make pirozhki-style buns from the herbs and cornmeal._









						Wartime cuisine: What did Soviet soldiers eat during World War II?
					

Frontline cooks demonstrated incredible creativity to give soldiers a high-calorie and varied diet. Here is a look at the clever culinary tricks they...




					www.rbth.com


----------



## Altair

Jarnhamar said:


> Considering the cautionary tail of ISIS and the Taliban maybe we should stop trying to fix the militaries of potential (and formerly literal) adversaries.


Unless Putin is scooping out Army.ca for tips and hints...

I dunno, he might be. Would explain HTC.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> Have a read -
> 
> Wartime cuisine: What did Soviet soldiers eat during World War II?​
> _Cooks did what they could to vary the rations, which became increasingly meagre towards the end of the war. For instance, they made carrot tea by grating carrots, and then boiled it with Laetiporus sulphureus tree fungus. The carrot gave the infusion a sweetish taste and the fungus a pleasant dark hue.
> 
> Closer to the end of the war in the spring of 1944 the Soviet army received cornmeal from the allies. *Some cooks did not know what to do with it* and added it to bread, causing it to become crumbly and quickly stale. This naturally angered the men who began to curse the cooks.
> 
> In his memoirs, one war veteran described how a cook sent the men to gather herbs in the steppe (saltbush, sorrel, alfalfa, wild garlic, etc) so that he could make pirozhki-style buns from the herbs and cornmeal._
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Wartime cuisine: What did Soviet soldiers eat during World War II?
> 
> 
> Frontline cooks demonstrated incredible creativity to give soldiers a high-calorie and varied diet. Here is a look at the clever culinary tricks they...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rbth.com


Crap food>No food.


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498970054297333760\

Nordstream 2 filing for bankruptcy. Good.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499043346056192006


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498972154280300544
And things looking like they will be getting hot around Odessa. I hear Odessa is a fortress so we shall see how that goes.


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499040883865391107
15 day war. That would imply they have enough ammo, fuel, and I never thought I would need to say this, food, to keep fighting for at least that period of time.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499040883865391107
> 15 day war. That would imply they have enough ammo, fuel, and I never thought I would need to say this, *food*, to keep fighting for at least that period of time.


If even 20% of the reports of RUS troops looting UKR shops for food are close to true, we could also have proof of even the best plan not surviving contact.

Also, as others smarter than me have mentioned, let's never discount stuff like this ...





						Operation Mincemeat - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499042699881631750


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499040883865391107
> 15 day war. That would imply they have enough ammo, fuel, and I never thought I would need to say this, food, to keep fighting for at least that period of time.


Or thought they had…
    The problem with societies built on a lie, is each layer has its own lies.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Not QUITE as clear cut as this, but still a good one ...


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499001612563628036


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499007215872655362


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499040883865391107
> 15 day war. That would imply they have enough ammo, fuel, and I never thought I would need to say this, food, to keep fighting for at least that period of time.


That assumption does not take into account the for certain higher than average amount of captured/abandoned supplies/equipment that has been taken by the Ukrainians.


----------



## The Bread Guy

A few other cartoons out there, being shared by @9mmballpoint ...


----------



## FJAG

The Bread Guy said:


> If even 20% of the reports of RUS troops looting UKR shops for food are close to true, we could also have proof of even the best plan not surviving contact.
> 
> Also, as others smarter than me have mentioned, let's never discount stuff like this ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Operation Mincemeat - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org


Then again there was the finding of a copy of Lee's order #191 prior to the Battle of Antietam. 



> Union troops discover Rebels’ Antietam battle plan
> 
> 
> Union soldiers find a copy of Confederate General Robert E. Lee’s orders detailing the Confederates’ plan for the Antietam campaign near Frederick, Maryland.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.history.com



🍻


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499001612563628036


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499001612563628036


door 1

Russia 0


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499007215872655362


"Not since before the war...

...

Wait, no, just three days ago''

Must feel like an eternity for him...


----------



## HiTechComms

Since we are posting memes.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498771835042897928


----------



## HumblePie

So the order of battle has been formed?








						Order of Battle — Postimages
					






					postimg.cc


----------



## armrdsoul77

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/t4x17l


----------



## tomydoom

HumblePie said:


> So the order of battle has been formed?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Order of Battle — Postimages
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> postimg.cc


The only surprise there is Eritrea, I wonder what the Russians have on them?


----------



## TacticalTea

China abstains on the UN resolution, citing lack of consultation, lack of attention to ''historical complexity of the situation'', and incompatibility with own principles of indivisible security (Taiwan).

Invites all parties to cease hostilities and return to the negotiating table.

Edit: just noticed DPRK voted No... I had no memory they even were in the UN.


----------



## HiTechComms

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498771835042897928


LOL.. Hague.. What a juko.. I prefer what Poles did to nazis after ww2.


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> Ukraine running out of ammunition as donated weapons caught in logjam at Polish border
> 
> 
> 'Everyone is donating stuff, including the Germans, Finns. But NATO troops can't deliver it into the country. Ukrainians need to come in convoys to pick it up'
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nationalpost.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What's good the help if it can't get to the front?



A need for short range, tactical airlift, and pilots with Balls-o-Steel?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> A need for short range, tactical airlift, and pilots with Balls-o-Steel?



Meanwhile, logistics Officers be like....


----------



## HiTechComms

Kirkhill said:


> A need for short range, tactical airlift, and pilots with Balls-o-Steel?


Isn't Ukraine the country that usually does that ? (Before the war)


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> Sure, but the Soviets actually...I dunno, fought properly?


Women and girls of Germany.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> And we have seen countless results that Quality can trump Quantity as long as it has enough ammo


In a target rich environment not much time or need for planning or training.

If you miss fire again.


----------



## The Bread Guy

First OS RUS state media estimates I've seen so far:  498 RUS tps allegedly killed, 1597 allegedly wounded (sources:  TASS - RIA Novosti)

Latest RUS death toll from UKR side (source):  5840

Also, the VPN I use no longer has a UKR hub to access as of this afternoon ....


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499001612563628036


But it worked in the movies!!??


----------



## KevinB

tomydoom said:


> The only surprise there is Eritrea, I wonder what the Russians have on them?


One man dictatorships need weapons and cash to stay afloat...


----------



## Kirkhill

armrdsoul77 said:


> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/t4x17l


It always nice to see people happy in their work.


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> But it worked in the movies!!??


I feel stupider for reading Marco Rubio's tweet assessments though -- I finally just told him to STFU and stop making Republicans look bad.


----------



## tomydoom

KevinB said:


> One man dictatorships need weapons and cash to stay afloat...


Well there you go, learn something new every day.  I had been sadly ignorant or Eritrean politics.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> A need for short range, tactical airlift, and pilots with Balls-o-Steel?


The trains are still running, spread the load across a few trains and run them in as close as possible to where its needed - the only other choice is a number of convoys of trucks, which look to be alot more suspicious than trains. 
If you use trains, you do run the risk of future trains, containing only civilians, to be targets....


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499060828817043474


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499060828817043474


The vast majority of these Russian conscripts have never been more than 30-40km from their homes, they've never been outside of Russia before, they have almost zero 'real world' experience. So when confronted like this, with compassion, food, a call to the Mother, one option is to send  them back to their unit - and have them tell their fellow soldiers, 'look, these guys didn't hurt me, they called my Mother and said that I was ok, what the hell are we doing here?'  'Let's all defect over to them.'

The Russians certainly tried this with the Germans, with limited success, the difference being the Ukrainians aren't treating the Russians in the same manner as the Germans did to the Russians.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499088408827895818
Come on, who (other than Canada), does an Air Assault with 4 Helicopter...
   It's like part of the Russian Army has said, F' it, lets see how bad we can screw this up before someone shoots Vlad.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499088408827895818
> Come on, who (other than Canada), does an Air Assault with 4 Helicopter...
> It's like part of the Russian Army has said, F' it, lets see how bad we can screw this up before someone shoots Vlad.



Related - 

Punching holes in gas tanks
Abandoning fueled and armed vehicles to the Ukrainians (knowing full well a lot of them were made in Ukraine and are driven by Ukraine)
Scattered demonstrations all over the countryside

How soon can we disarm Vlad and get out of this?


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> How soon can the Russians BURY Vlad and get out of this?


Fixed it for you.
   The Long Term Solution needs to come from Inside Russia.   We (the West) cannot change Russia unless Russia wants to be changed and asks for help.


----------



## KevinB

Not a good week to be a Russian Artilleryman 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499090277197357056


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498989441154703365


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499052367861489677


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499060828817043474


Perfect. The humanity and decency of the Ukrainian people is comforting in all of this.


----------



## The Bread Guy

rmc_wannabe said:


> Perfect. The humanity and decency of the Ukrainian people is comforting in all of this.


That'll change if it degenerates into an insurgency ....

Meanwhile, one way for RUS to generate more troops & supplies (UKR media)....


> On March 4, martial law may be introduced in the Russian Federation, adviser to the President's Office head Mykhailo Podoliak believes.  "On March 4, both chambers of the Russian parliament will convene for an emergency extraordinary session. As I understand it, the preventive imposition of martial law in Russia is on the agenda. With a total ban on all rallies, disconnection from the outside world, large-scale food and financial restrictions. The evacuation of those who can afford it is now beginning across the country," he said on Twitter.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499092832673542147

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499091578740219913


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499088408827895818
> Come on, who (other than Canada), does an Air Assault with 4 Helicopter...
> It's like part of the Russian Army has said, F' it, lets see how bad we can screw this up before someone shoots Vlad.


Question - is there even an officer among them?


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Question - is there even an officer among them?


They are wearing Multi-Cam under their smocks - as well as Western Hiking boots -- looks to me like SOF that was supposed to go in and cause issues inside the Ukrainian lines - .


----------



## Czech_pivo

Anyone thinking slightly ahead of the current situation in Ukraine, with a positive outcome for Ukraine, that a Marshall Plan 2.0 funded by EU/US is being talked about behind the scenes?


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> They are wearing Multi-Cam under their smocks - as well as Western Hiking boots -- looks to me like SOF that was supposed to go in and cause issues inside the Ukrainian lines - .


So going in during daylight hours when every Pavel and Svetlana has a phone outside recording the helo's direction/drop off location is thought to be a good thing by SOF?


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> So going in during daylight hours when every Pavel and Svetlana has a phone outside recording the helo's direction/drop off location is thought to be a good thing by SOF?


Yeah not exactly a big brain moment - one may think they just said screw it - lets land over here and get captured...


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> ... and "here's some advice if you're coming to join the UKR foreign legion"


*“Will you come to Abyssinia, will you come?”*

Will you come to Abyssinia will you come, will you come?
Bring your own ammunition and a gun, and a gun.
Mussolini will be there,
Dropping gas bombs from the air,
Will you come to Abyssinia will you come, will you come?

Music hall favourite from the 30s well known to British kids of the 40s.

sung to the tune of _Roll Along Covered Wagon.





_

Business Opportunity

Cabela Duty Free Franchises at all international airports.  

Pick up your purchases on exiting the aircraft.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Anyone thinking slightly ahead of the current situation in Ukraine, with a positive outcome for Ukraine, that a Marshall Plan 2.0 funded by EU/US is being talked about behind the scenes?


I would suspect that MP 2.0 also includes some other areas...


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Yeah not exactly a big brain moment - one may think they just said screw it - lets land over here and get captured...


Be captured by Ukraine! We have food!

Slava Ukraini!


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499060828817043474


How you win a war.  And the next one.


----------



## Altair

Kirkhill said:


> How you win a war.  And the next one.


This has to be demoralizing for Russians who can see this. It makes sense why Russia wants to shut down the internet.


----------



## Jarnhamar

I can't imagine anything to gain in Ukraine for Russia is worth the country being treated like a pariah.

Is Putin going to threaten to nuke people if they won't be friends with Russia?


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> Fixed it for you.
> The Long Term Solution needs to come from Inside Russia.   We (the West) cannot change Russia unless Russia wants to be changed and asks for help.


That direct action may happen but soldiers disobeying orders, deserting, destroying kit, abandoning it to the "enemy"  will stop the fighting a lot faster.  And more likely to be repeated the more it happens.

Less risk and easier to do than trying to plant a bomb in a suitcase under Vlad's table.

"Sorry boss! Can't hear you!..... static... breaking up.... going into a tunnel...."


----------



## Altair

Jarnhamar said:


> I can't imagine anything to gain in Ukraine for Russia is worth the country being treated like a pariah.
> 
> Is Putin going to threaten to nuke people if they won't be friends with Russia?


Well, Russia was already a pariah in many cases. Now its just...much more of a pariah.


----------



## Baloo

The war being waged on social media is definitely bringing a level of complexity to understanding the ground truth, at least in an open source capacity. The sheer volume of memes, Tweets, blatant propaganda and recycled video or photographs makes it hard to decipher just how successful either the Russians or Ukrainians are, at this point. The individual and tactical successes are being broadcast for a global audience, while the operational details are far more uncertain.

The risk posed to the entire theatre east of the Dnieper is being underappreciated, while a lot of gloating is being done and the West risks underestimating the precariousness of the defender's position. We're only several days into the conflict and neither side has truly been bloodied. The Russian air and fires capabilities have, by most accounts, been negligible or absent from any of the four-pronged axis. At this point, we probably still need to assume there is a plan unfolding here, rather than just wishing away their assets as a 30-year hoax.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> Fixed it for you.
> The Long Term Solution needs to come from Inside Russia.   We (the West) cannot change Russia unless Russia wants to be changed and asks for help.



 While I am not averse to the idea of burying Vlad it just puts the gun in the hand of another Vlad.  

I agree that change needs to come from within.  As it did in 1905 and 1917.  Ukrainians feeding Russian conscripts when they put down their arms will make that change happen faster, and with a better outcome for the liberal side of the house.

Somebody was talking about being able to keep two thoughts in their head concurrently.  

How's this for two thoughts?

Come at my family with a gun, I kill you.
Put down the gun, I feed you.


----------



## Altair

Baloo said:


> The war being waged on social media is definitely bringing a level of complexity to understanding the ground truth, at least in an open source capacity. The sheer volume of memes, Tweets, blatant propaganda and recycled video or photographs makes it hard to decipher just how successful either the Russians or Ukrainians are, at this point. The individual and tactical successes are being broadcast for a global audience, while the operational details are far more uncertain.
> 
> The risk posed to the entire theatre east of the Dnieper is being underappreciated, while a lot of gloating is being done and the West risks underestimating the precariousness of the defender's position. We're only several days into the conflict and neither side has truly been bloodied. The Russian air and fires capabilities have, by most accounts, been negligible or absent from any of the four-pronged axis. At this point, we probably still need to assume there is a plan unfolding here, rather than just wishing away their assets as a 30-year hoax.


There is definitely a propaganda war being waged, but at the same time, if you see enough videos of Russian tanks running out of fuel, soldiers deserting, soldiers crying, soldiers going hungry, bombed out convoys, Ukrainian AD shooting down Russian planes, Russian helicopters being shot down, and couple that with the realities that Kiev still holds, Kharkiv still holds despite being a stones thrown from the Russian border, and front lines that are not moving as fast as anyone expected and you can begin to piece a clearer picture through all the noise.


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> There is definitely a propaganda war being waged, but at the same time, if you see enough videos of Russian tanks running out of fuel, soldiers deserting, soldiers crying, soldiers going hungry, bombed out convoys, Ukrainian AD shooting down Russian planes, Russian helicopters being shot down, and couple that with the realities that Kiev still holds, Kharkiv still holds despite being a stones thrown from the Russian border, and front lines that are not moving as fast as anyone expected and you can begin to piece a clearer picture through all the noise.



I agree with Altair for a change. 

The Russians have been slow to broadcast anything and slower to broadcast their reverses.  Their reverses are not seen to have a propaganda advantage.

The Ukrainians on the other hand have been broadcasting everything, warts and all.  Their reverses, as the "plucky underdog" have propaganda value.

I'm more inclined to think that Ukraine government and general staff releases are at least grounded in reality.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Prairie canuck said:


> The time is fast approaching where parts of the Russian leadership and those who are loosing billions decide enough is enough. Putin's leadership will come to an end with a violent coup or a silent injection.


Sorry to burst your bubble but Pariah States can remain that way for a very long time, see:  North Korea, Apartheid South Africa, Rhodesia, Military Juntas in South America, etc.

The Russian State, with a very capable and powerful internal security apparatus isn't going to instantly collapse on itself.

Your predictions sound like Nostradamus.


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> They are wearing Multi-Cam under their smocks - as well as Western Hiking boots -- looks to me like SOF that was supposed to go in and cause issues inside the Ukrainian lines - .


Check for NorthFace or Arc’teryx puffies in their rucks…


----------



## Baloo

Altair said:


> There is definitely a propaganda war being waged, but at the same time, if you see enough videos of Russian tanks running out of fuel, soldiers deserting, soldiers crying, soldiers going hungry, bombed out convoys, Ukrainian AD shooting down Russian planes, Russian helicopters being shot down, and couple that with the realities that Kiev still holds, Kharkiv still holds despite being a stones thrown from the Russian border, and front lines that are not moving as fast as anyone expected and you can begin to piece a clearer picture through all the noise.



We've all watched the same videos. Read the same OSINT threads. Talked to friends abroad.

In a country inhabited by millions, being invaded by tens of thousands, watched by billions, I believe we are fixated at the micro-level and to some degree, avoiding the wider picture. 

I'm simply saying, that we're holding up the fact that since the two largest cities in Ukraine are still held by the government six days into the conflict, it should be taken as some form of prediction that the Russian offensive is grinding to a halt.

There is a lot of war left to be fought.


----------



## Altair

Baloo said:


> We've all watched the same videos. Read the same OSINT threads. Talked to friends abroad.
> 
> In a country inhabited by millions, being invaded by tens of thousands, watched by billions, I believe we are fixated at the micro-level and to some degree, avoiding the wider picture.
> 
> I'm simply saying, that we're holding up the fact that since the two largest cities in Ukraine are still held by the government six days into the conflict, it should be taken as some form of prediction that the Russian offensive is grinding to a halt.
> 
> There is a lot of war left to be fought.


I agree we are focusing on a lot of micro level stuff, heck, I've said as much. 

But we can also see a fair amount of the Macro, and signs there are not encouraging either. 

None of this is to say Ukraine is guaranteed to win, or Russia lose. 

What it does say is just how incredibly poorly the Russian military is doing. Granted, toss enough soldiers at the problem and you tend to find solutions, but lets not ignore the fact that the Russian military is hot garbage.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Are you doing your part? 








						Keyboard army using restaurant reviews to take on Russian state media
					

Rather than commenting on the food and service at Russian restaurants and cafes, some users have begun posting online reviews detailing Russian actions in Ukraine to try to smuggle information past the tight control of state media.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499108913815461894
Again, not to say Russia is going to lose this war...but I don't think winning like this is much of a victory.


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> This has to be demoralizing for Russians who can see this. It makes sense why Russia wants to shut down the internet.



Another potentially demoralizing video.  I find it an interesting compare and contrast exercise for Canadians as well.

‘Go home’: Thousands of people rally near Security Service building seized by Russians in Melitopol


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499100365760909312
"China and Russia hate one another"

Also


----------



## HumblePie

_Insert Seinfeld bizarro world meme_


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499088073115811848


----------



## HiTechComms

Kirkhill said:


> I agree with Altair for a change.
> 
> The Russians have been slow to broadcast anything and slower to broadcast their reverses.  Their reverses are not seen to have a propaganda advantage.
> 
> The Ukrainians on the other hand have been broadcasting everything, warts and all.  Their reverses, as the "plucky underdog" have propaganda value.
> 
> I'm more inclined to think that Ukraine government and general staff releases are at least grounded in reality.


The reason why you cannot see the Russian propaganda is because Russian Media has been pretty well much banned on most tech platforms. The platforms that do have it are in Russian or are invite only.  The west is wholly aligned with Ukraine and that system will prevent any other info from coming out. If you want to see some Russian propaganda just go to odysee.com RT channel.  The Ukrainians are definitely winning the social media war in the west and I have to command them for it. Lots of the things have been debunked like "Ghost of Kiev" There are lot of Ukrainian Telegram and Russian groups posting stuff, of if you are really are adventures you can head over to /pol or 4chan. I am surprised there is not a lot more actual footage of combat on the main platforms, there are 35 million smart phones in Ukraine. I think Ukrainians are also being censored by the same platforms.

Twitter is just bullshit and always has been. Stats show this for a long time.  Any one that takes any post on social media seriously is most likely an unwilling participant in a psy op.

F.A.T.E

“We know they are lying, they know they are lying, they know we know they are lying, we know they know we know they are lying, but they are still lying.” - Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn


----------



## Altair

HiTechComms said:


> The reason why you cannot see the Russian propaganda is because Russian Media has been pretty well much banned on most tech platforms. The platforms that do have it are in Russian or are invite only.  The west is wholly aligned with Ukraine and that system will prevent any other info from coming out. If you want to see some Russian propaganda just go to odysee.com RT channel.  The Ukrainians are definitely winning the social media war in the west and I have to command them for it. Lots of the things have been debunked like "Ghost of Kiev" There are lot of Ukrainian Telegram and Russian groups posting stuff. I am surprised there is not a lot more actual footage of combat on the main platforms, there are 35 million smart phones in Ukraine. I think Ukrainians are also being censored by the same platforms.
> 
> Twitter is just bullshit and always has been. Stats show this for a long time.  Any one that takes any post on social media seriously is most likely an unwilling participant in a psy op.
> 
> F.A.T.E
> 
> “We know they are lying, they know they are lying, they know we know they are lying, we know they know we know they are lying, but they are still lying.” - Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn


----------



## Spencer100

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499100365760909312
> "China and Russia hate one another"
> 
> Also


Is it not just an enemy of my enemy thing?  Neuter the US and the West first.  Then we can see where the chips fall.  
Taiwan is still first on the CCP hit list.  Then the other neighbours. I think the deal is you get Ukraine I get Taiwan.  

But after that China is still looking at Siberia.


----------



## Altair

Kirkhill said:


> I agree with Altair for a change.
> 
> The Russians have been slow to broadcast anything and slower to broadcast their reverses.  Their reverses are not seen to have a propaganda advantage.
> 
> The Ukrainians on the other hand have been broadcasting everything, warts and all.  Their reverses, as the "plucky underdog" have propaganda value.
> 
> I'm more inclined to think that Ukraine government and general staff releases are at least grounded in reality.


Let us celebrate this day for it may never happen again.


----------



## Spencer100

Altair said:


>


Altair.....Not that I agree with everything HTC is saying. But he may have some points in this post.  We are not see much Social Media from the Russian side.  I have called this the Tik Tok war.  I will have to look for the other side too.  If it is a 15 day campaign and the Russians win it is going to be a big blow to many.   It could blow over in domestic politics.


----------



## dapaterson

It balances out.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499052367861489677


----------



## Altair

Spencer100 said:


> Is it not just an enemy of my enemy thing?  Neuter the US and the West first.  Then we can see where the chips fall.
> Taiwan is still first on the CCP hit list.  Then the other neighbours. I think the deal is you get Ukraine I get Taiwan.
> 
> But after that China is still looking at Siberia.


Maybe they are, maybe they are not. 

But as far as things stand in the present day, these two are thick as thieves.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Sorry to burst your bubble but Pariah States can remain that way for a very long time, see:  North Korea, Apartheid South Africa, Rhodesia, Military Juntas in South America, etc.
> 
> The Russian State, with a very capable and powerful internal security apparatus isn't going to instantly collapse on itself.
> 
> Your predictions sound like Nostradamus.


Speaking of South Africa, I see that they didn't forget their ANC roots and abstained from voting against Russia.


----------



## KevinB

Spencer100 said:


> Is it not just an enemy of my enemy thing?  Neuter the US and the West first.  Then we can see where the chips fall.
> Taiwan is still first on the CCP hit list.  Then the other neighbours. I think the deal is you get Ukraine I get Taiwan.
> 
> But after that China is still looking at Siberia.





Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499100365760909312
> "China and Russia hate one another"
> 
> Also



Russia: Hey China we are going to Invade the Ukraine
China: 1 sec
  Looks at historical data and weather 
China: Could you wait till after the Olympics - it would be bad form to do that during
Russia: Sure thing
China: snickers
Russia: Sorry I couldn't hear you
China: sorry, just a cold I was sniffling


China (to self) man those Russians are almost as stupid as the West...


----------



## Altair

Spencer100 said:


> Altair.....Not that I agree with everything HTC is saying. But he may have some points in this post.  We are not see much Social Media from the Russian side.  I have called this the Tik Tok war.  I will have to look for the other side too.  If it is a 15 day campaign and the Russians win it is going to be a big blow to many.   It could blow over in domestic politics.


He's completely entitled to his pro russia opinion. I'm not calling for him to be banned or silenced. 

But I do think I can be forgiven for calling out his pro russia cheerleading. If someone wants to call me out for my pro Ukraine cheerleading, that would also be fair.


----------



## Kirkhill

HiTechComms said:


> The reason why you cannot see the Russian propaganda is because Russian Media has been pretty well much banned on most tech platforms. The platforms that do have it are in Russian or are invite only.  The west is wholly aligned with Ukraine and that system will prevent any other info from coming out. If you want to see some Russian propaganda just go to odysee.com RT channel.  The Ukrainians are definitely winning the social media war in the west and I have to command them for it. Lots of the things have been debunked like "Ghost of Kiev" There are lot of Ukrainian Telegram and Russian groups posting stuff, of if you are really are adventures you can head over to /pol or 4chan. I am surprised there is not a lot more actual footage of combat on the main platforms, there are 35 million smart phones in Ukraine. I think Ukrainians are also being censored by the same platforms.
> 
> Twitter is just bullshit and always has been. Stats show this for a long time.  Any one that takes any post on social media seriously is most likely an unwilling participant in a psy op.
> 
> F.A.T.E
> 
> “We know they are lying, they know they are lying, they know we know they are lying, we know they know we know they are lying, but they are still lying.” - Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn


Thanks HTC

A datum is a datum.


----------



## HiTechComms

Altair said:


>


Do I have to point out facts or are you just now running on emotional decisions. 
Please keep in mind that also this happened.


			https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/psychological-warfare-influence-campaign-canadian-armed-forces-1.6079084
		


Social Media is a cancer.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Russia: Hey China we are going to Invade the Ukraine
> China: 1 sec
> Looks at historical data and weather
> China: Could you wait till after the Olympics - it would be bad form to do that during
> Russia: Sure thing
> China: snickers
> Russia: Sorry I couldn't hear you
> China: sorry, just a cold I was sniffling
> 
> 
> China (to self) man those Russians are almost as stupid as the West...


Russia had better thank the gods China didn't ask them to wait until after the paralympics


----------



## Altair

HiTechComms said:


> Do I have to point out facts or are you just now running on emotional decisions.
> Please keep in mind that also this happened.
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/psychological-warfare-influence-campaign-canadian-armed-forces-1.6079084
> 
> 
> 
> Social Media is a cancer.


Russian plane shot down over twitter isn't a real plane. 

Got it.


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499073609024917506
Lavrov is playing 5d chess right now. 

Or Biden is, I don't know anymore.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> He's completely entitled to his pro russia opinion. I'm not calling for him to be banned or silenced.
> 
> But I do think I can be forgiven for calling out his pro russia cheerleading. If someone wants to call me out for my pro Ukraine cheerleading, that would also be fair.


I usually don't agree with you (and I suspect the mirror applies) - but I do agree with your point.

If he is really a Junior Officer in the CAF thought, I think he's blown past his left and right of arc though. 
  Enough that if he's in a unit with a security officer that maybe his clearance investigation and background needs a fuller vetting.


----------



## HiTechComms

Altair said:


> Russian plane shot down over twitter isn't a real plane.
> 
> Got it.


Not saying it is or isn't. Then again don't use Computer game footage. 

Here are some actual pilots discussing some of the info.


----------



## Altair

HiTechComms said:


> Not saying it is or isn't. Then again don't use Computer game footage.
> 
> Here are some actual pilots discussing some of the info.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497042664839327744
fake plane. 

Got it.


----------



## HiTechComms

KevinB said:


> I usually don't agree with you (and I suspect the mirror applies) - but I do agree with your point.
> 
> If he is really a Junior Officer in the CAF thought, I think he's blown past his left and right of arc though.
> Enough that if he's in a unit with a security officer that maybe his clearance investigation and background needs a fuller vetting.


I posted CBC article. Its public knowledge.


----------



## Kirkhill

HiTechComms said:


> The reason why you cannot see the Russian propaganda is because Russian Media has been pretty well much banned on most tech platforms. The platforms that do have it are in Russian or are invite only.  The west is wholly aligned with Ukraine and that system will prevent any other info from coming out. If you want to see some Russian propaganda just go to odysee.com RT channel.  The Ukrainians are definitely winning the social media war in the west and I have to command them for it. Lots of the things have been debunked like "Ghost of Kiev" There are lot of Ukrainian Telegram and Russian groups posting stuff, of if you are really are adventures you can head over to /pol or 4chan. I am surprised there is not a lot more actual footage of combat on the main platforms, there are 35 million smart phones in Ukraine. I think Ukrainians are also being censored by the same platforms.
> 
> Twitter is just bullshit and always has been. Stats show this for a long time.  Any one that takes any post on social media seriously is most likely an unwilling participant in a psy op.
> 
> F.A.T.E
> 
> “We know they are lying, they know they are lying, they know we know they are lying, we know they know we know they are lying, but they are still lying.” - Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn


Personally HTC, I would not be bothered if you wanted to cut and paste some of Russia's highlights.  

I am not going to link my computer to any of their sites.  But that is just me.

Perhaps the owner of the board and the moderators could weigh in and offer their opinions?  Any decision, obviously, in the end, would be their's.


----------



## HiTechComms

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497042664839327744
> fake plane.
> 
> Got it.


Trust but Verify.

My Questions are:
How do you verify that footage is actually that.

All I see is an explosion
Cannot confirm the location of the city. (No access to meta data)
No identifiers.
No Airplane markers
New Twitter accounts posting random footage.
No one speaking in the background recording.

Having tons of experience in IT, I can tell you that stuff is easy to manipulate digitally, anything from Deep fakes using AI to conveniently cropped videos.  I am sure the Russian stuff is just as bad or worse I just haven't see any.

Don't trust anything on Twitter or Social media as the Truth. I am sure there is some legit stuff but most of it is just Propaganda. I doubt everything until I can verify.

F.A.T.E


----------



## Czech_pivo

This is not the sign of someone who is moving away from Putin, but someone who is moving to protect their assets and remove options against him in the west.

Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich says he will sell Chelsea soccer club amid Ukraine war​








						Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich says he will sell Chelsea soccer club amid Ukraine war
					

Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich said he will sell the Chelsea soccer club, a move that comes in response to outrage over Russia's invasion of Ukraine.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> This is not the sign of someone who is moving away from Putin, but someone who is moving to protect their assets and remove options against him in the west.
> 
> Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich says he will sell Chelsea soccer club amid Ukraine war​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich says he will sell Chelsea soccer club amid Ukraine war
> 
> 
> Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich said he will sell the Chelsea soccer club, a move that comes in response to outrage over Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnbc.com


If he's willing to sell at a loss I would buy it. Reluctantly.


----------



## Kirkhill

HiTechComms said:


> Do I have to point out facts or are you just now running on emotional decisions.
> Please keep in mind that also this happened.
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/psychological-warfare-influence-campaign-canadian-armed-forces-1.6079084
> 
> 
> 
> Social Media is a cancer.



It's a game.  Lots of players.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> If he's willing to sell at a loss I would buy it. Reluctantly.


The best is - he won't get the $...


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499110909792423938
Uh oh.

BLUF
 Romanian Mig-21 LanceR reported issues
SAR PUMA 330 sent - reported loss of control
  Both crashed crews dead.

More








						BREAKING Un avion MiG 21 LanceR s-a prăbușit în județul Constanța, pilotul a fost găsit mort/ Video: Elicopterul care a plecat în căutarea avionului s-a prăbușit. Șapte militari au decedat
					

UPDATE 06:40 Pilotul avionului MiG-21 LanceR, prăbuşit, miercuri seara, în judeţul Constanţa a fost găsit decedat, iar Forţele Aeriene şi Parchetul




					www.g4media.ro


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> The best is - he won't get the $...


There are too many ways still for him to get the sale results paid out.


----------



## SeaKingTacco

HumblePie said:


> _Insert Seinfeld bizarro world meme_
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499088073115811848


What. The. F***?

I cannot think of a time in past 4 decades when NATO and Iran have been on the same side of an issue (well, maybe Gulf War 1).

Strange times…


----------



## KevinB

SeaKingTacco said:


> What. The. F***?
> 
> I cannot think of a time in past 4 decades when NATO and Iran have been on the same side of an issue (well, maybe Gulf War 1).
> 
> Strange times…


He can do math...
  Much better at the end of the Great Restructure to remind the Winner, that you sided with them...


----------



## Kirkhill

HiTechComms said:


> Social Media is a cancer.



Pretty sure I read something similar about that Devil's Device, the Gutenberg Press, in 1439.









						Printing press - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




The Daily Mail, the Daily Telegraph or the Guardian.  Pick your poison.


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499073609024917506
> Lavrov is playing 5d chess right now.
> 
> Or Biden is, I don't know anymore.


Ooooooo....

That's a good one!


----------



## Scott

HiTechComms said:


> Social Media is a cancer.


Fuckin genius.

Suppose part of what good can be done is thoroughly backing up sources posted. We have a pretty good reputation for that over the years. I mean, you're here.



Kirkhill said:


> Personally HTC, I would not be bothered if you wanted to cut and paste some of Russia's highlights.
> 
> I am not going to link my computer to any of their sites.  But that is just me.
> 
> Perhaps the owner of the board and the moderators could weigh in and offer their opinions?  Any decision, obviously, in the end, would be their's.



I'll bring it up with the boss.


----------



## HiTechComms

Kirkhill said:


> Pretty sure I read something similar about that Devil's Device, the Gutenberg Press, in 1439.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Printing press - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Daily Mail, the Daily Telegraph or the Guardian.  Pick your poison.


That's true. Its just accelerated to instant manipulation.

Ukrainians and Holomodor famine how it never happened according to NYT.

There are geniuses that think the Nazi led holocaust never happened.


----------



## Baloo

Altair said:


> I agree we are focusing on a lot of micro level stuff, heck, I've said as much.
> 
> But we can also see a fair amount of the Macro, and signs there are not encouraging either.
> 
> None of this is to say Ukraine is guaranteed to win, or Russia lose.
> 
> What it does say is just how incredibly poorly the Russian military is doing. Granted, toss enough soldiers at the problem and you tend to find solutions, but lets not ignore the fact that the Russian military is hot garbage.



I am just going to circle back on this for a moment and then hopefully, remain silent again.

There is a lot of 'information' being broadcast, generally from Ukrainian sources. I am dubious about much of the quality found within official reports and know that I am not alone.

Casualty rates, for both sides, are being wildly exaggerated or underreported, depending on the audience. Confirmable statistics are much different. I have yet to watch videos of columns of Russian deserters, or POWs. I keep hearing about "reports," or "sources," but a lot of them lead back to Ukrainian releases. The Russians also said on the first day, that the Ukrainians were deserting in front of them. Captured soldiers on television are a dubious metric of morale.

Are Russians abandoning vehicles? Are they being towed by Ukrainian farmers? Are sub-unit convoys being destroyed? Are aviation assets being brought down? Yes, to all of the above.

Are over half a million Ukrainians now refugees in the surrounding states? Yes. Are Ukrainian combat units seemingly fixed, or soon to be encircled, cut-off, etc. in multiple areas of operation? Seemingly, yes, with virtually no maneouvre capability. Are the Russians posturing to make a more coordinated assault on the capital and Kharkov? Potentially, most OSINT sites are indicating such. Are the Russians preparing to link their Crimean holdings to the rest of the country? Yes. Does the Ukrainian Air Force have any ability to operate? Seemingly, limited. What about Ukrainian fire support? That convoy isn't getting less exposed, and small strikes into Russian for news releases aren't cutting it. Will the Russian security state collapse? I doubt it. Will the Ukrainians actually have the ability to resupply their forces, despite every anti-armour weapon west of Hungary being sent to the borders?

Maps and plans have been captured by all sides, in every contact known to mankind. They haven't all been released via social media. Same with communications plans. Insubordination over radio means happens here in Canada. All this talk of unencrypted radio, as if we've never bypassed P through C and gone straight to E. I happen to have experienced that in operations, so yes, it occurs.

This long-winded post, which most will ignore, is asking that we keep some context. There is a real possibility that this conflict will spiral beyond Ukraine, and a lot of men and women will end up in the ground.

"Hot garbage," or not.


----------



## Kirkhill

HiTechComms said:


> That's true. Its just accelerated to instant manipulation.
> 
> Ukrainians and Holomodor famine how it never happened according to NYT.
> 
> There are geniuses that think the Nazi led holocaust never happened.



No accounting for taste.

You just have to learn to tolerate errors.   

It is not a crime to be wrong.


----------



## Kirkhill

Scott said:


> Fuckin genius.
> 
> Suppose part of what good can be done is thoroughly backing up sources posted. We have a pretty good reputation for that over the years. I mean, you're here.
> 
> 
> 
> I'll bring it up with the boss.



Heard on Allied airwaves









						Lord Haw-Haw - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				












						Tokyo Rose - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Altair

Baloo said:


> I am just going to circle back on this for a moment and then hopefully, remain silent again.
> 
> There is a lot of 'information' being broadcast, generally from Ukrainian sources. I am dubious about much of the quality found within official reports and know that I am not alone.


A lot are Ukrainian sources, but there are independent news agencies as well as everyone with a cell phone.

And of course, since most people are not on the ground, or part of units participating in the the conflict, one has to decide whether or not to take something at face value.

But once you start to get he volume of posts saying or showing the same thing, from multiple sources of media, you can start to paint a picture of what is happening.


Baloo said:


> Casualty rates, for both sides, are being wildly exaggerated or underreported, depending on the audience. Confirmable statistics are much different. I have yet to watch videos of columns of Russian deserters, or POWs. I keep hearing about "reports," or "sources," but a lot of them lead back to Ukrainian releases. The Russians also said on the first day, that the Ukrainians were deserting in front of them. Captured soldiers on television are a dubious metric of morale.
> 
> Are Russians abandoning vehicles? Are they being towed by Ukrainian farmers? Are sub-unit convoys being destroyed? Are aviation assets being brought down? Yes, to all of the above.


Yes, these things are happening. And these things do not happen in NATO militaries, as far as I am aware. Which leads to the question, why?


Baloo said:


> Are over half a million Ukrainians now refugees in the surrounding states? Yes. Are Ukrainian combat units seemingly fixed, or soon to be encircled, cut-off, etc. in multiple areas of operation? Seemingly, yes, with virtually no maneouvre capability. Are the Russians posturing to main a more coordinated assault on the capital and Kharkov? Potentially, most OSINT sites are indicating such. Are the Russians preparing to link their Crimean holdings to the rest of the country? Yes. Does the Ukrainian Air Force have any ability to operate? Seemingly, limited. What about Ukrainian fire support? That convoy isn't getting less exposed, and small strikes into Russian for news releases aren't cutting it. Will the Russian security state collapse? I doubt it. Will the Ukrainians actually have the ability to resupply their forces, despite every anti-armour weapon west of Hungary being sent to the borders?


Like I said, Russia may win, Ukraine may lose. But how it is done matters as much as the end result. The Russian military is supposed to be the 3rd strongest on the planet and they are having tanks stolen by Ukrainian farmers. The Ukrainian military is supposed to be the 20th strongest on the planet but they have been holding the Russians outside of their cities for the most part after 6 days.  At some point, questions need to be asked as to what the hell is going on.


Baloo said:


> Maps and plans have been captured by all sides, in every contact known to mankind. They haven't all been released via social media. Same with communications plans. Insubordination over radio means happens here in Canada. All this talk of unencrypted radio, as if we've never bypassed P through C and gone straight to E. I happen to have experienced that in operations, so yes, it occurs.


It has certainly happened, which is why I have yet to post anything about that. It's not news. 


Baloo said:


> This long-winded post, which most will ignore, is asking that we keep some context. There is a real possibility that this conflict will spiral beyond Ukraine, and a lot of men and women will end up in the ground.


There is that possibility, but at this point, is anyone actually scared of the operational capabilities of the Russian military?

If Ukraine can be punking them, what would a half decent NATO military do?


Baloo said:


> "Hot garbage," or not.


If the Russians did anything outside of Ukraine with what they have shown in Ukraine it would be the last thing they ever do, one way or another.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499073609024917506
> Lavrov is playing 5d chess right now.
> 
> Or Biden is, I don't know anymore.


----------



## Altair

Altair said:


> A lot are Ukrainian sources, but there are independent news agencies as well as everyone with a cell phone.
> 
> And of course, since most people are not on the ground, or part of units participating in the the conflict, one has to decide whether or not to take something at face value.
> 
> But once you start to get he volume of posts saying or showing the same thing, from multiple sources of media, you can start to paint a picture of what is happening.
> 
> Yes, these things are happening. And these things do not happen in NATO militaries, as far as I am aware. Which leads to the question, why?
> 
> Like I said, Russia may win, Ukraine may lose. But how it is done matters as much as the end result. The Russian military is supposed to be the 3rd strongest on the planet and they are having tanks stolen by Ukrainian farmers. The Ukrainian military is supposed to be the 20th strongest on the planet but they have been holding the Russians outside of their cities for the most part after 6 days.  At some point, questions need to be asked as to what the hell is going on.
> 
> It has certainly happened, which is why I have yet to post anything about that. It's not news.
> 
> There is that possibility, but at this point, is anyone actually scared of the operational capabilities of the Russian military?
> 
> If Ukraine can be punking them, what would a half decent NATO military do?
> 
> If the Russians did anything outside of Ukraine with what they have shown in Ukraine it would be the last thing they ever do, one way or another.









In the name of fairness, I accuse myself of being a Ukrainian Cheerleader.


----------



## Spencer100

SeaKingTacco said:


> What. The. F***?
> 
> I cannot think of a time in past 4 decades when NATO and Iran have been on the same side of an issue (well, maybe Gulf War 1).
> 
> Strange times…


He's a twelve'er  he is thinking of a totally different outcome.


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> In the name of fairness, I accuse myself of being a Ukrainian Cheerleader.



We need pictures!


----------



## OceanBonfire

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498989441154703365



More details:



> “We are striking the enemy’s columns,” Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told Military Times in an exclusive interview Wednesday morning. “We burn many columns of the enemy.”
> 
> The strikes, he said, are being conducted by Ukraine Su-24 and Su-25 fighter jets, artillery and missile barrages.
> 
> “My intelligence officers and agents are directing and calling the strikes,” he said.











						Ukraine jets hit Russian column; Russia has used thermobarics, Ukraine military says
					

Startling new claims in Russia's war on Ukraine by the head of Ukraine's defense intelligence agency.




					www.militarytimes.com


----------



## HiTechComms

Kirkhill said:


> Heard on Allied airwaves
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Lord Haw-Haw - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Tokyo Rose - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org


One thing that was practiced on both sides and people were told this was blatant propaganda. These days there is no such controls. These days we are told and asked not to question the experts. Its turned into who screams the loudest wins the argument. 

5th Generational Warfare which is informational is the preferred method of conquest. Its easier to demoralize then actually shoot enemy soldiers if you want to control that state.


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499110909792423938
> Uh oh.
> 
> BLUF
> Romanian Mig-21 LanceR reported issues
> SAR PUMA 330 sent - reported loss of control
> Both crashed crews dead.
> 
> More
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> BREAKING Un avion MiG 21 LanceR s-a prăbușit în județul Constanța, pilotul a fost găsit mort/ Video: Elicopterul care a plecat în căutarea avionului s-a prăbușit. Șapte militari au decedat
> 
> 
> UPDATE 06:40 Pilotul avionului MiG-21 LanceR, prăbuşit, miercuri seara, în judeţul Constanţa a fost găsit decedat, iar Forţele Aeriene şi Parchetul
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.g4media.ro


This sounds suspicious


----------



## Kirkhill

Not everybody needs to be told what is the enemy's propaganda what is the propagation of dogma.


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


>



You look different than I imagined!


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> This sounds suspicious


Ominous would have been my word.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Conflict in Ukraine spurs British Columbians to join military organizations​One B.C. resident joining the Canadian army while another plans to join the Ukraine International Legion​
Some British Columbians are being roused to action and the military, amid the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Anastasiya Ishchook, a teenager living in Cranbrook, B.C., has applied to join the Canadian Armed Forces. 

The 17-year-old, who was born near the Ukranian capital of Kyiv, sent in the last of her paperwork Tuesday to become a combat engineer.

She had previously applied to become an infantry soldier but found out there were no positions available in her region at the time.

While Ishchook said she first applied to join the Canadian military before Russia's invasion of Ukraine began, the conflict has further motivated her to become a soldier.

"Nothing has ever made me want to go and fight before. But ever since this has been happening, I just want to get out there and actually do something," she said.

With Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announcing the establishment of the International Legion for the Territorial Defense of Ukraine, for which foreigners can volunteer to fight against the Russian invasion, Canadians now have an immediate path to get involved in the war.

Ishchook recognizes that unless the war drags on, she likely won't play a role in the ongoing conflict. Still, she wants the opportunity to defend other countries against invasions. 

"I think in the future there will be more conflicts like that. I do have the drive to go out there and do something about them," she said.



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/british-columbians-joining-ukraine-1.6369488?ref=mobilerss&cmp=newsletter_CBC%20British%20Columbia_1633_451341


----------



## Altair

Kirkhill said:


> You look different than I imagined!


...What were you imagining?


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> ...What were you imagining?


Not that...


----------



## KevinB

Someone will be upset their toy is gone...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499131565779169287


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Altair said:


> Crap food>No food.



* CAF IMPs_ 'Cabbage Rolls', 'Ham Omelette' _and_ 'macaroni with peas breakfast'_ reading your post...


----------



## Kirkhill

HiTechComms said:


> One thing that was practiced on both sides and people were told this was blatant propaganda. These days there is no such controls. These days we are told and asked not to question the experts. Its turned into who screams the loudest wins the argument.
> 
> 5th Generational Warfare which is informational is the preferred method of conquest. Its easier to demoralize then actually shoot enemy soldiers if you want to control that state.



I'll give you a running start HTC.

Even the Daily Mail publishes opposition views

It's all going to plan.









						Putin is NOT crazy, the Russian invasion is NOT failing: BILL ROGGIO
					

ROGGIO: Believing Russia's assault is going poorly may make us feel better but is at odds with the facts. We cannot help Ukraine if we cannot be honest about its predicament.




					www.dailymail.co.uk


----------



## KevinB

Here are the Russian oligarchs speaking out against Putin's invasion
					

"Innocent people are dying in Ukraine now, every day, this is unthinkable and unacceptable."




					www.axios.com


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> I'll give you a running start HTC.
> 
> Even the Daily Mail publishes opposition views
> 
> It's all going to plan.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Putin is NOT crazy, the Russian invasion is NOT failing: BILL ROGGIO
> 
> 
> ROGGIO: Believing Russia's assault is going poorly may make us feel better but is at odds with the facts. We cannot help Ukraine if we cannot be honest about its predicament.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.dailymail.co.uk


Bill Roggio is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and editor of FDD's Long war Journal. From 1991 to 1997, Roggio served as a signalman and infantryman in the U.S. Army and New Jersey National Guard 

So 2 years active as a Signaler, and 4 years in the Guard -- solid foundation 
  I also thought his stuff on Afghan and Iraq was crap too - so color me jaded by earlier disgust.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> Bill Roggio is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and editor of FDD's Long war Journal. From 1991 to 1997, Roggio served as a signalman and infantryman in the U.S. Army and New Jersey National Guard
> 
> So 2 years active as a Signaler, and 4 years in the Guard -- solid foundation
> I also thought his stuff on Afghan and Iraq was crap too - so color me jaded by earlier disgust.



Kevin, 

As I said to HTC, it isn't a crime to be wrong.  We need to be tolerant of error.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499112501996400642


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> Kevin,
> 
> As I said to HTC, it isn't a crime to be wrong.  We need to be tolerant of error.


It isn't a crime, but I feel obligated to mock.


----------



## TacticalTea

Kirkhill said:


> I'll give you a running start HTC.
> 
> Even the Daily Mail publishes opposition views
> 
> It's all going to plan.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Putin is NOT crazy, the Russian invasion is NOT failing: BILL ROGGIO
> 
> 
> ROGGIO: Believing Russia's assault is going poorly may make us feel better but is at odds with the facts. We cannot help Ukraine if we cannot be honest about its predicament.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.dailymail.co.uk


The Russian military might be a farce, but it does seem to be attaining its objectives.

15-day war they planned for... We're halfway through and Kyiv is almost surrounded. It took the Germans 5 weeks to take Poland. No one says they were slow.

Mariupol, which has been in Russia's sights since 2014, is surrounded. Odessa, standing between Crimea and Transdnistria, is exposed and vulnerable after the fall of Kherson.

Even if the siege of Kyiv lasts a month, without foreign military intervention, the situation for Ukraine won't get any better. And I have no reason to think Russia will actually collapse. It will suffer, sure. But if Putin is determined... not much stands in his way. Especially if Europe keeps generously funding his military.

I'm 100% with UKR, but Russia's troubles don't necessarily translate into a Ukrainian victory.


----------



## Czech_pivo

daftandbarmy said:


> Conflict in Ukraine spurs British Columbians to join military organizations​One B.C. resident joining the Canadian army while another plans to join the Ukraine International Legion​
> Some British Columbians are being roused to action and the military, amid the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine.
> 
> Anastasiya Ishchook, a teenager living in Cranbrook, B.C., has applied to join the Canadian Armed Forces.
> 
> The 17-year-old, who was born near the Ukranian capital of Kyiv, sent in the last of her paperwork Tuesday to become a combat engineer.
> 
> She had previously applied to become an infantry soldier but found out there were no positions available in her region at the time.
> 
> While Ishchook said she first applied to join the Canadian military before Russia's invasion of Ukraine began, the conflict has further motivated her to become a soldier.
> 
> "Nothing has ever made me want to go and fight before. But ever since this has been happening, I just want to get out there and actually do something," she said.
> 
> With Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announcing the establishment of the International Legion for the Territorial Defense of Ukraine, for which foreigners can volunteer to fight against the Russian invasion, Canadians now have an immediate path to get involved in the war.
> 
> Ishchook recognizes that unless the war drags on, she likely won't play a role in the ongoing conflict. Still, she wants the opportunity to defend other countries against invasions.
> 
> "I think in the future there will be more conflicts like that. I do have the drive to go out there and do something about them," she said.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/british-columbians-joining-ukraine-1.6369488?ref=mobilerss&cmp=newsletter_CBC%20British%20Columbia_1633_451341


We might just find those missing 1k sailors that we're short on....


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Someone will be upset their toy is gone...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499131565779169287


German navy just got its newest, most modern patrol ship.


----------



## blacktriangle

KevinB said:


> Someone will be upset their toy is gone...


They should gift it to Zelensky's family.


----------



## KevinB

blacktriangle said:


> They should gift it to Zelensky's family.


I'd scuttle it as a Monument to Tyrants.


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

TacticalTea said:


> I'm 100% with UKR, but Russia's troubles don't necessarily translate into a Ukrainian victory.


I don't think anyone is, or did, project a Ukrainian victory, I THINK it's the apparent losses and apparent ineptness that keeps us talking.

I said somewhere else that it's like watching a build up in a movie, you know the twist is coming, but it just keeps dragging on....


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499142809634414602


----------



## Weinie

HiTechComms said:


> I posted CBC article. Its public knowledge.


And it is also completely exaggerated, as close to the media equivalent of maskirovka as a news agency can get.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> It isn't a crime, but I feel obligated to mock.



Alinsky 5 and 6.


----------



## KevinB

Macron accuses Putin of starting a war that no other country wanted.
					






					www.nytimes.com


----------



## HiTechComms

Weinie said:


> And it is also completely exaggerated, as close to the media equivalent of maskirovka as a news agency can get.


The nuance is that its all propaganda. I don't think CBC actually knows what CAF did and CBC produced a puff piece that doesn't tell the whole story of the actual operation, which of course is opsec. The whole point was to generate stupid clicks on CBC website for click bait and rage bait.
Hence "Trust but Verify"

Good on you for catching this and replying.


----------



## KevinB

Here’s the latest news from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
					






					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499142809634414602



Starting to think an unmanned, hypervelocity cargo-craft with JPADs would be a nice "have" right about now.

So we don't end up repeating this


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499144187190693898
and more importantly 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499083145228034053


----------



## Eye In The Sky

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499110909792423938
> Uh oh.
> 
> BLUF
> Romanian Mig-21 LanceR reported issues
> SAR PUMA 330 sent - reported loss of control
> Both crashed crews dead.
> 
> More
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> BREAKING Un avion MiG 21 LanceR s-a prăbușit în județul Constanța, pilotul a fost găsit mort/ Video: Elicopterul care a plecat în căutarea avionului s-a prăbușit. Șapte militari au decedat
> 
> 
> UPDATE 06:40 Pilotul avionului MiG-21 LanceR, prăbuşit, miercuri seara, în judeţul Constanţa a fost găsit decedat, iar Forţele Aeriene şi Parchetul
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.g4media.ro


 RIP


----------



## Czech_pivo

TacticalTea said:


> The Russian military might be a farce, but it does seem to be attaining its objectives.
> 
> 15-day war they planned for... We're halfway through and Kyiv is almost surrounded. It took the Germans 5 weeks to take Poland. No one says they were slow.
> 
> Mariupol, which has been in Russia's sights since 2014, is surrounded. Odessa, standing between Crimea and Transdnistria, is exposed and vulnerable after the fall of Kherson.
> 
> Even if the siege of Kyiv lasts a month, without foreign military intervention, the situation for Ukraine won't get any better. And I have no reason to think Russia will actually collapse. It will suffer, sure. But if Putin is determined... not much stands in his way. Especially if Europe keeps generously funding his military.
> 
> I'm 100% with UKR, but Russia's troubles don't necessarily translate into a Ukrainian victory.


_It took the Germans 5 weeks to take Poland. No one says they were slow._

The Germans had to _walk_, across dry summer fields and woods, not along roads (for the most part).  The Russians are riding to war and they are going slower than the Germans walked in alot of areas. 

The issue with the Russians is going to be F & F - food and fuel - along with ammo.  Now both F & F can come from the Ukrainians themselves if they resort to stealing directly from them.  Find a supermarket - go in and strip the entire thing bare. Come across a dairy herd or a beef herd, eat the entire herd.  Find a Lukoil gas station, drain every drop of diesel.  Those things will provoke the civilians even more and expect alot more molotov cocktails.


----------



## KevinB

and here we go


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499146022400020493anyone else want a piece of Russia while the going is good?


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499142809634414602


Hope their not dusting off a batch left in storage from the Spanish Civil War.


----------



## ModlrMike

Czech_pivo said:


> _It took the Germans 5 weeks to take Poland. No one says they were slow._
> 
> The Germans had to _walk_, across dry summer fields and woods, not along roads (for the most part).  The Russians are riding to war and they are going slower than the Germans walked in alot of areas.


True, but the Germans were high on meth.


----------



## HiTechComms

Czech_pivo said:


> _It took the Germans 5 weeks to take Poland. No one says they were slow._
> 
> The Germans had to _walk_, across dry summer fields and woods, not along roads (for the most part).  The Russians are riding to war and they are going slower than the Germans walked in alot of areas.
> 
> The issue with the Russians is going to be F & F - food and fuel - along with ammo.  Now both F & F can come from the Ukrainians themselves if they resort to stealing directly from them.  Find a supermarket - go in and strip the entire thing bare. Come across a dairy herd or a beef herd, eat the entire herd.  Find a Lukoil gas station, drain every drop of diesel.  Those things will provoke the civilians even more and expect alot more molotov cocktails.


As previously mentioned don't know how Russia can hold Ukraine militarily or economically. 

We know some of the demands of Russians but still unclear on the actual objectives and demands. 

We can only spectate at this time. Its madness and the average person will pay the price with blood. I think the idea of mind your own business and carry a big stick is the best policy.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> and here we go
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499146022400020493anyone else want a piece of Russia while the going is good?


In walks the Dragon.....


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499148012802740227


----------



## Czech_pivo

ModlrMike said:


> True, but the Germans were high on meth.


Its a wonder they didn't walk in circles!


----------



## daftandbarmy

Czech_pivo said:


> In walks the Dragon.....


----------



## SupersonicMax

KevinB said:


> I usually don't agree with you (and I suspect the mirror applies) - but I do agree with your point.
> 
> If he is really a Junior Officer in the CAF thought, I think he's blown past his left and right of arc though.
> Enough that if he's in a unit with a security officer that maybe his clearance investigation and background needs a fuller vetting.


Providing a counter/different point of view is actually encouraged and required to effectively think critically (or at least that’s what Senior Officers are taught at the Canadian Forces College).  There is no harm in providing that point of view and it shouldn’t be viewed as some form of allegiance with Russia.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> and here we go
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499146022400020493anyone else want a piece of Russia while the going is good?


Now's as good a time as any.

Canada has form.









						Canadian Siberian Expeditionary Force - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




Of course that was then.... Now we might be able to organize a bottle of rye.









						Whisky War - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Spencer100

Czech_pivo said:


> In walks the Dragon.....


----------



## armrdsoul77

ModlrMike said:


> True, but the Germans were high on meth.


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> Bill Roggio is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and editor of FDD's Long war Journal. From 1991 to 1997, Roggio served as a signalman and infantryman in the U.S. Army and New Jersey National Guard
> 
> So 2 years active as a Signaler, and 4 years in the Guard -- solid foundation
> I also thought his stuff on Afghan and Iraq was crap too - so color me jaded by earlier disgust.


We’ll know he’s full of it if the Crimean task force hooks left to take Odessa and land lock UKR, which IMO would be the smart thing to do, whilst lest the Northern/North Western forces work on Kyiv.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Spencer100 said:


>



Probably the best documentary ever made...


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Someone might have posted this earlier or similar story/info and I missed it....



			Assassination plot against Zelensky was foiled and unit sent to kill him was 'destroyed,' Ukraine says
		


Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, said during a broadcast marathon airing on Ukrainian TV channels that officials were recently tipped off about how a unit of Kadyrovites, elite Chechen Special Forces, were on their way to kill Zelenskyy. After Ukrainian officials were told by Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), the Chechen Special Forces were killed on Saturday on the outskirts of Kyiv, Danilov said.

“We are well aware of the special operation that was to take place directly by the Kadyrovites to eliminate our president. And I can say that we have received information from the FSB, who today do not want to take part in this bloody war,” Danilov said. “And thanks to this, the ‘Kadyrov’ elite group was destroyed, which came here to eliminate our president.”


----------



## KevinB

SupersonicMax said:


> Providing a counter/different point of view is actually encouraged and required to effectively think critically (or at least that’s what Senior Officers are taught at the Canadian Forces College).  There is no harm in providing that point of view and it shouldn’t be viewed as some form of allegiance with Russia.


Have you read some of his threads?
  Counterpoints and critical thinking are good, aiding and abetting the enemy isn't.


----------



## SupersonicMax

KevinB said:


> Have you read some of his threads?
> Counterpoints and critical thinking are good, aiding and abetting the enemy isn't.


I have.  Aiding and abetting?!  That’s a stretch on a public forum like this one.


----------



## Spencer100

Eye In The Sky said:


> Someone might have posted this earlier or similar story/info and I missed it....
> 
> 
> 
> Assassination plot against Zelensky was foiled and unit sent to kill him was 'destroyed,' Ukraine says
> 
> 
> 
> Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, said during a broadcast marathon airing on Ukrainian TV channels that officials were recently tipped off about how a unit of Kadyrovites, elite Chechen Special Forces, were on their way to kill Zelenskyy. After Ukrainian officials were told by Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), the Chechen Special Forces were killed on Saturday on the outskirts of Kyiv, Danilov said.
> 
> “We are well aware of the special operation that was to take place directly by the Kadyrovites to eliminate our president. And I can say that we have received information from the FSB, who today do not want to take part in this bloody war,” Danilov said. “And thanks to this, the ‘Kadyrov’ elite group was destroyed, which came here to eliminate our president.”


Ok so the FSB, which is supposed to be Putin's base of support....told the Ukraine about the mission?  Or is the Ukrainians trying to make it look lkke that?  Or just everyone hates Chechens? Lol  6D chess now?


----------



## KevinB

Spencer100 said:


> Ok so the FSB, which is supposed to be Putin's base of support....told the Ukraine about the mission?  Or is the Ukrainians trying to make it look lkke that?  Or just everyone hates Chechens? Lol  6D chess now?


Or just one angry dude that Putin gave a bad PER years ago


----------



## Remius

KevinB said:


> Have you read some of his threads?
> Counterpoints and critical thinking are good, aiding and abetting the enemy isn't.


I don’t think he’s aiding and abetting.  But his trolling certainly causes issues and derailments. 

“US calls to send foreign Russian Students home” turned into Canada setting up internments camps and deporting brown people during the Afghanistan war. 

Lots of weird whataboutisms and such.  Subtle jabs at Canada whenever something negative about Russia is being pointed out.   Apologist comments about Russia wanting to have peace talks etc etc. 

Aiding and abetting?  No. Cheering? Defending?  Apologizing for?  Yes, yes and yes.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Spencer100 said:


> Ok so the FSB, which is supposed to be Putin's base of support....told the Ukraine about the mission?  Or is the Ukrainians trying to make it look lkke that?  Or just everyone hates Chechens? Lol  6D chess now?



The answer to all those question goes a little like this...


----------



## Jarnhamar

Remius said:


> I don’t think he’s aiding and abetting.  But his trolling certainly causes issues and derailments.
> 
> “US calls to send foreign Russian Students home” turned into Canada setting up internments camps and deporting brown people during the Afghanistan war.
> 
> Lots of weird whataboutisms and such.  Subtle jabs at Canada whenever something negative about Russia is being pointed out.   Apologist comments about Russia wanting to have peace talks etc etc.
> 
> Aiding and abetting?  No. Cheering? Defending?  Apologizing for?  Yes, yes and yes.




The 1944 CIA guide to sabotaging meetings - internet forum edition


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Tragic evening for the Romanian Air Force
					

Romanian media reporting that a Romanian Air Force Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-21 LanceRs belongs to the 861st Fighter Aviation Squadron, departed from




					www.itamilradar.com
				




Romanian media reporting that a *Romanian Air Force Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-21* *LanceRs* belongs to the 861st Fighter Aviation Squadron, departed from 86th Air Base, disappeared off radar over the Black Sea during combat air patrol mission.


----------



## Remius

Eye In The Sky said:


> Tragic evening for the Romanian Air Force
> 
> 
> Romanian media reporting that a Romanian Air Force Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-21 LanceRs belongs to the 861st Fighter Aviation Squadron, departed from
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.itamilradar.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Romanian media reporting that a *Romanian Air Force Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-21* *LanceRs* belongs to the 861st Fighter Aviation Squadron, departed from 86th Air Base, disappeared off radar over the Black Sea during combat air patrol mission.


Romania being part of NATO…

Maybe a reason now for a no fly zone…


----------



## TacticalTea

SupersonicMax said:


> I have.  Aiding and abetting?!  That’s a stretch on a public forum like this one.


Is it impossible to aid and abet Russia on this forum (or any other)?

Would sharing Russian propaganda not amount to aiding and abetting? 

I would advance that it does.

The question then, is whether or not the comments consist in propaganda or genuine conversation. 



Remius said:


> Romania being part of NATO…
> 
> Maybe a reason now for a now fly zone…



As much as I favour a no fly zone, the circumstances of this incident heavily suggest an inclement-weather-induced crash.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Remius said:


> Romania being part of NATO…
> 
> Maybe a reason now for a no fly zone…



Hard to say at this point;  I've read some conflicting reports so stopped searching for now.  It does appear, though, that comms were lost and then RADAR contact was lost several minutes later.

It's hard to know what's credible info or not but...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499114295707250692


----------



## Eye In The Sky

TacticalTea said:


> the circumstances of this incident heavily suggest an inclement-weather-induced crash.



Can you expand on that?  Are you talking the fighter, the helo, or both?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> and here we go
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499146022400020493anyone else want a piece of Russia while the going is good?


I'm sure Poland wants to have some words about Królewiec...


----------



## KevinB

Eye In The Sky said:


> Hard to say at this point;  I've read some conflicting reports so stopped searching for now.  It does appear, though, that comms were lost and then RADAR contact was lost several minutes later.
> 
> It's hard to know what's credible info or not but...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499114295707250692


Wreckage of the Helicopter has been posted - it went down 10km after take off


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499175909257097216


----------



## Eye In The Sky

KevinB said:


> Wreckage of the Helicopter has been posted - it went down 10km after take off



Affirm;  I should have been more specific - the reason the MiG went down is "unknown".  Until it is officially announces, I think assuming the MiG was 'shot down' would be....premature at this point.

*There's some video in the Twitter thread I posted above (#5677) of the helo crash and, supposedly, an explosion over the Black Sea.


----------



## Good2Golf

Eye In The Sky said:


> Affirm;  I should have been more specific - the reason the MiG went down is "unknown".  Until it is officially announces, I think assuming the MiG was 'shot down' would be....premature at this point.


My gut considers “well, it’s a MiG-21….” first, before other potential malfeasance.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Eye In The Sky said:


> Tragic evening for the Romanian Air Force
> 
> 
> Romanian media reporting that a Romanian Air Force Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-21 LanceRs belongs to the 861st Fighter Aviation Squadron, departed from
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.itamilradar.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Romanian media reporting that a *Romanian Air Force Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-21* *LanceRs* belongs to the 861st Fighter Aviation Squadron, departed from 86th Air Base, disappeared off radar over the Black Sea during combat air patrol mission.


I saw some clip from @girkingirkin I think that showed some towering cloud of black smoke out a long distance into the water off Odessa.  The person who did the videoing was wondering what it could be. It was this afternoon.


----------



## KevinB

Interesting pics for the backdrop. 








						Ukraine Puts Up Stiff, Courageous Resistance to Russian Incursion, Official Says
					

Effective and creative Ukrainian resistance combined with poor Russian logistics and sustainment has hindered Russian invasion progress, a senior defense official said.



					www.defense.gov


----------



## KevinB

Eye In The Sky said:


> Affirm;  I should have been more specific - the reason the MiG went down is "unknown".  Until it is officially announces, I think assuming the MiG was 'shot down' would be....premature at this point.
> 
> *There's some video in the Twitter thread I posted above (#5677) of the helo crash and, supposedly, an explosion over the Black Sea.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499121532999651328


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Good2Golf said:


> My gut considers “well, it’s a MiG-21….” first, before other potential malfeasance.



Roger that, and there's several reports of it going comms silent, then later, off RADAR.  If the pilot was feet-wet, I hope s/he bailed out and is in a raft; water temps approx 6 degrees, the 2nd helo didn't launch.









						Water temperature in Black Sea today
					

Current water temperature in cities and resorts on the Black Sea coast. Sea water conditions and forecast sea state and weather today and in the coming days




					seatemperature.info


----------



## Kirkhill

New site to me.

Full of layered information.









						Putin’s War: The Daily Ukraine Brief --- March 2nd - 24hr to 3pm
					

Click here for a high-resolution map. *Disclaimer: This map and the information below is informed by reliable and verified open sources, it is meant to convey the general disposition of Russian troops in Ukraine and should not be considered confirmed nor comprehensive. Importantly, do not use...




					putinukrainebriefing.substack.com


----------



## Eye In The Sky

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499121532999651328



I read also, somewhere in the past 45mins or so, that there were 7 pers on board the helo;  2 Naval personnel boarded before T/OFF.

RIP


----------



## TacticalTea

Eye In The Sky said:


> Can you expand on that?  Are you talking the fighter, the helo, or both?


Oh jesus christ, didn't realize we lost two airframes.

So actually no, I won't expand on that for now until I know more.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499080826599919633


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> Have you read some of his threads?
> Counterpoints and critical thinking are good, aiding and abetting the enemy isn't.



Frankly, I'd rather know what he knows.


----------



## Kirkhill

Remius said:


> I don’t think he’s aiding and abetting.  But his trolling certainly causes issues and derailments.
> 
> “US calls to send foreign Russian Students home” turned into Canada setting up internments camps and deporting brown people during the Afghanistan war.
> 
> Lots of weird whataboutisms and such.  Subtle jabs at Canada whenever something negative about Russia is being pointed out.   Apologist comments about Russia wanting to have peace talks etc etc.
> 
> Aiding and abetting?  No. Cheering? Defending?  Apologizing for?  Yes, yes and yes.



What's the phrase?  Find, Fix and ..... something or other?


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> Frankly, I'd rather know what he knows.


Cool, lets waterboard him...

j/k


----------



## Kirkhill

The US "propaganda" version?  



KevinB said:


> Interesting pics for the backdrop.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine Puts Up Stiff, Courageous Resistance to Russian Incursion, Official Says
> 
> 
> Effective and creative Ukrainian resistance combined with poor Russian logistics and sustainment has hindered Russian invasion progress, a senior defense official said.
> 
> 
> 
> www.defense.gov



Their appreciation of the war on day 6 is also useful









						Ukrainian Resistance, Logistics Nightmares Plague Russian Invaders
					

Russian troops invading Ukraine have made some progress in the southern part of the country but are facing a logistics breakdown with vehicles running out of fuel and troops running out of food, a



					www.defense.gov


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> Cool, lets waterboard him...
> 
> j/k


Keep the quiet part quiet, man! 

Speaking of things that are quiet... Impossible to reach the website of the Ukrainian Embassy in Canada, right now... Suspect it's just over-loaded, but Russian action is not impossible.


----------



## RaceAddict

KevinB said:


> Someone will be upset their toy is gone...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499131565779169287



Three Russian yachts currently in Hamburg have all been seized by German authorities today. Dilbar (shown above), Solandge (owned by Suleyman Kerimov), and Luna (owned by Farkhad Akhmedov).


----------



## HiTechComms

Kirkhill said:


> New site to me.
> 
> Full of layered information.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Putin’s War: The Daily Ukraine Brief --- March 2nd - 24hr to 3pm
> 
> 
> Click here for a high-resolution map. *Disclaimer: This map and the information below is informed by reliable and verified open sources, it is meant to convey the general disposition of Russian troops in Ukraine and should not be considered confirmed nor comprehensive. Importantly, do not use...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> putinukrainebriefing.substack.com


Substack has a pretty good rep for independent journalism.
The link they have








						Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine
					






					www.oryxspioenkop.com
				




Lots of good pics. Looks like some actual on the ground reporting.


----------



## SupersonicMax

TacticalTea said:


> Would sharing Russian propaganda not amount to aiding and abetting?
> 
> I would advance that it does.



Nope.  That’s merely being exposed to the other side of the coin. Not having that kind of information as part of discourse would make the discussion an echo chamber.


----------



## Spencer100

RaceAddict said:


> Three Russian yachts currently in Hamburg have all been seized by German authorities today. Dilbar (shown above), Solandge (owned by Suleyman Kerimov), and Luna (owned by Farkhad Akhmedov).


Things that make you go hmmmm. How did they get to be billionaires of theyvdodnt know something was up? When Putin pulled his boat you think they may have gotten a clue?  It's not like people on this board didn't.


----------



## dapaterson

What can be inferred from one set of tires?  A lot.

Maintenance includes boring things like periodically moving vehicles.  Ignore it at your peril.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499164245250002944


----------



## RaceAddict

Good2Golf said:


> My gut considers “well, it’s a MiG-21….” first, before other potential malfeasance.



To be fair, the RoAF MiG-21s are pretty darned modern, up-to-date fighters... if I remember correctly they're essentially rebuilt/upgraded as zero-hour airframes by Elbit Systems in Israel to late 90s specs LCD MFDs, helmet mounted site, modern air-to-air radar, etc.



Spencer100 said:


> Things that make you go hmmmm. How did they get to be billionaires of theyvdodnt know something was up? When Putin pulled his boat you think they may have gotten a clue?  It's not like people on this board didn't.



Sanctions happened faster than they expected?

In the case of Luna, she wasn't going anywhere, no matter what Akhmedov knew ahead of time: https://www.yachtforums.com/attachments/luna-at-b-v-jpg.95656/


----------



## KevinB

RaceAddict said:


> To be fair, the RoAF MiG-21s are pretty darned modern, up-to-date fighters... if I remember correctly they're essentially rebuilt/upgraded as zero-hour airframes by Elbit Systems in Israel to late 90s specs LCD MFDs, helmet mounted site, modern air-to-air radar, etc.


What I thought was interesting was it appeared to be a single plane patrol.



RaceAddict said:


> Sanctions happened faster than they expected?
> 
> In the case of Luna, she wasn't going anywhere, no matter what Akhmedov knew ahead of time: https://www.yachtforums.com/attachments/luna-at-b-v-jpg.95656/


Putin pulled his from Germany what almost two weeks ago now, repairs where NOT completed (that should have been a pretty big hint that it was time to bail).


----------



## Eye In The Sky

RaceAddict said:


> To be fair, the RoAF MiG-21s are pretty darned modern, up-to-date fighters... if I remember correctly they're essentially rebuilt/upgraded as zero-hour airframes by Elbit Systems in Israel to late 90s specs LCD MFDs, helmet mounted site, modern air-to-air radar, etc.



Coming from a fleet of "old airframes that have been upgraded"....avionics and stuff are cool, but aircraft serviceability can still be...challenging, even after ASLEP and AIMP type project work is complete.  Upgraded/overhauled rarely = "new".



KevinB said:


> What I thought was interesting was it appeared to be a single plane patrol.



Uh hmmm.

I've been checking the NATO Allied Air Comd FB and website every now and then.  No mention of the missing jet and pilot, or the helo crash.





__ https://www.facebook.com/NATO.AIRCOM/photos/5100318006693652
			












						2022
					

[%MODULE%




					ac.nato.int


----------



## NavyShooter

KevinB said:


> Cool, lets waterboard him...
> 
> j/k


If you use diesel, it's not waterboarding...


----------



## KevinB

Eye In The Sky said:


> Coming from a fleet of "old airframes that have been upgraded"....avionics and stuff are cool, but aircraft serviceability can still be...challenging, even after ASLEP and AIMP type project work is complete.  Upgraded/overhauled rarely = "new".
> 
> 
> 
> Uh hmmm.
> 
> I've been checking the NATO Allied Air Comd FB and website every now and then.  No mention of the missing jet and pilot, or the helo crash.











						Romanian MiG-21 Crashes. SAR Helicopter Dispatched To Rescue Its Pilot Crashes Too Killing 7
					

A Puma helicopter that was launched to search and rescue a missing MiG-21 pilot crashed killing 7 crew members. MiG pilot still missing. Mar. 2, 2022, was




					theaviationist.com
				












						Five dead as Romanian fighter jet and helicopter crash in Black Sea
					

A ROMANIAN fighter jet "disappeared off the radar" while patrolling near the coast of the Black Sea.




					www.express.co.uk
				





and busy making more friends...








						Russian fast-jets breach Swedish airspace as Putin taunts Europe
					

RUSSIAN jets have breached Swedish airspace as the world holds its breath following Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.




					www.express.co.uk


----------



## Quirky

Eye In The Sky said:


> Coming from a fleet of "old airframes
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://www.facebook.com/NATO.AIRCOM/photos/5100318006693652
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 2022
> 
> 
> [%MODULE%
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ac.nato.int



So do they just draw straws at the ladder to see who drives?


----------



## Eye In The Sky

@KevinB Check - I've seen those or similar ones.  I'm wondering if the Romanian sortie was a "NATO" one, or "national" one...


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Quirky said:


> So do they just draw straws at the ladder to see who drives?



3 people in flyin' jammies...2 seats.


----------



## TacticalTea

Bipartisan Russian O&G sanctions bill being pushed forward

Co-sponsored by Senators Manchin - Energy committee chairman - and Murkowski.


----------



## Jarnhamar

MP Bardish Chagger's petition e-3821 to Cancel the competition to purchase new combat aircraft doesn't seem to be getting that much traction. Some interesting points including.


> Low-level fighter jet training causes noise pollution and disrupt nearby communities;
> Air weapons ranges harm the forest, soil, water and wildlife;
> Fighter jets are for bombing that destroys infrastructure and kills people; and
> International conflicts can be resolved with peaceful diplomacy and without fighter jets.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499198747842162688


----------



## TacticalTea

Jarnhamar said:


> MP Bardish Chagger's petition e-3821 to Cancel the competition to purchase new combat aircraft doesn't seem to be getting that much traction. Some interesting points including.


I long for the day the liberal party lives up to its name.

I mean what in the lord's name is this commie gobbledy-gook
About as bad as the NDP MP who wanted to phase out the CAF.


----------



## KevinB

Jarnhamar said:


> MP Bardish Chagger's petition e-3821 to Cancel the competition to purchase new combat aircraft doesn't seem to be getting that much traction. Some interesting points including.


Send her on a fact finding mission to the Ukraine, with the idiot (Initiated by Tamara Lorincz from Waterloo, Ontario) that came up with it.


----------



## KevinB

Remember folks


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> Remember folks
> 
> View attachment 69134


Yeah no lmao

I had been wanting to visit St-Petersburg for some time. But there's no way I'm gonna risk my life and finance Putin's regime by going over there. I don't want to get disappeared, especially not as a CAF officer. Same goes for China. There's precedent.


----------



## KevinB

NATO Countries Pour Weapons Into Ukraine, Risking Conflict With Russia
					

Brussels is proud to be providing military aid, but Moscow may see it as a dangerous intervention.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## HiTechComms

TacticalTea said:


> I long for the day the liberal party lives up to its name.
> 
> I mean what in the lord's name is this commie gobbledy-gook
> About as bad as the NDP MP who wanted to phase out the CAF.


Never ceases to amaze me how obtuse people can be about dictators/tyrants not caring about your pacifism. I rather be peaceful and have a big friggen stick just in case. Having a strong military doesn't mean you are pro war.

What I found funny is how Democrats are now all pro gun in Ukraine, pro border and nationalism. No AR15 semi auto for you yankee but Ukrainian here is a Select fire Ak47/74

On another note.. NSFW..   (missing to letters) ddit.com/r/CombatFootage Has some combat footage and aftermath from combat zones. Hope this is not breaking rules


----------



## KevinB

TacticalTea said:


> Yeah no lmao
> 
> I had been wanting to visit St-Petersburg for some time. But there's no way I'm gonna risk my life and finance Putin's regime by going over there. I don't want to get disappeared, especially not as a CAF officer. Same goes for China. There's precedent.


 You must be younger - back in the day, it was common - it meant NATO Invading and "visiting" that way


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Jarnhamar said:


> MP Bardish Chagger's petition e-3821 to Cancel the competition to purchase new combat aircraft doesn't seem to be getting that much traction. Some interesting points including...International conflicts can be resolved with peaceful diplomacy



Example - Russia is solving their grievances with peaceful diplomacy.

"Y_ou're just experiencing our peaceful diplomacy differently"_

One thing, though;  reading things like this reminds me of why the term "chucklefuck" exists in todays' world.


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> You must be younger - back in the day, it was common - it meant NATO Invading and "visiting" that way


I might be the seniormost Gen Z in the CAF... 

But yeah I understood your meaning, I just wanted to add some side commentary ;P


----------



## Eye In The Sky

TacticalTea said:


> About as bad as the NDP MP who wanted to phase out the CAF.



The petition above does call for the govt to "transition Canada away from fossil fuels and armed forces"....


----------



## Good2Golf

> International conflicts can be resolved with peaceful diplomacy and without fighter jets.


…yeah…proven method, to wit the success in resolving the RUS-UKR issue…. 🙄


----------



## TacticalTea

Eye In The Sky said:


> The petition above does call for the govt to "transition Canada away from fossil fuels and armed forces"....


I know! Absolute madness!

And it's a LIBERAL MP!

What have we come to...


----------



## KevinB

Russian Urban Warfare and the Assault on Kyiv
					

An assault on Kyiv will be bloody for both sides. But for the civilian population it will be devastating.




					rusi.org


----------



## OceanBonfire

> On March 1, dozens of self-identified right-wing nationalists marauded through the city center of Przemysl, Poland, and harassed refugees who looked to be people of color, the witnesses said. Many non-white refugees have arrived in the city while they evacuate Ukraine.
> 
> ...
> 
> Julian Würzer, a reporter for the German newspaper Berliner Morgenpost who is stationed in Poland, told ABC News that extremists aggressively shouted at refugees to get out of the country and allegedly assaulted them.
> 
> ...
> 
> These extremists are a minority in the country, however. There has been an overwhelming effort by local citizens to help those fleeing across the Polish-Ukrainian border. ABC News reporters on the ground say that volunteers across the region have been offering to house, feed, and clothe the many refugees.
> 
> ...
> 
> At the border, witnesses tell ABC News that extremists have reportedly been accepting Ukrainians but vowing to “defend” Poland against an influx of non-Christians. These extremists are believed by some to be backed by Russia.
> 
> Poland's government has aligned itself in recent years with right-wing ideals and has been criticized for anti-refugee sentiment. Last year, Poland refused to let thousands of Syrian and Iraqi refugees in the country after Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko forcibly drove them out of his country.
> 
> ...











						Extremists harass minority refugees arriving in Poland from Ukraine, witnesses report
					

Right-wing nationalists harass minority refugees from Ukraine in Poland, as more than 800,000 people continue to flee the country as Russia attacks.




					abcnews.go.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Jarnhamar said:


> MP Bardish Chagger's petition e-3821 to Cancel the competition to purchase new combat aircraft doesn't seem to be getting that much traction. Some interesting points including.



You're 'avin' a larf, innit?


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499131249599950848


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499131249599950848


I’m holding out for a TOS-1…we have a bit of a nosey neighbour down the street and….well, you know…


----------



## Spencer100

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499131249599950848


Will they deliver?  If not can I use my UPS account?  Anyone here want go halveses?


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499196615411871749


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499196615411871749


Yeah for about 48 hours now there's been talk of martial law on the 4th.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

It seems the MiG pilot did not survive.  RIP.









						Pilotul aeronavei MiG-21 LanceR a decedat
					

Capitanul Costinel Iosif Nita, pilotul avionului MiG-21 LanceR prabusit miercuri, 2 martie, in judetul Constanta, si-a pierdut viata.




					www.mapn.ro
				




(Google translates it to this)

The pilot of the MiG-21 LanceR aircraft has died


Captain Costinel Iosif Niță, the pilot of the MiG-21 LanceR plane that crashed on Wednesday, March 2, in Constanța County, lost his life.
The pilot was 31 years old, married and had no children. Since 2014, he has been a pilot in the 861st Combat Aviation Squadron at the 86th Air Base at Borcea. It had accumulated over 570 flight hours, of which approximately 420 on the LanceR MiG-21.
A commission of the Air Force General Staff and the Military Prosecutor's Office attached to the Constanța Military Tribunal continue to investigate the circumstances in which the accident took place.
The leadership of the Ministry of Defense expresses its regret for the tragic accident and is with the grieving family of Captain Costinel Iosif Niță, who fell on duty.
On Thursday, March 3, military and religious commemoration ceremonies for fallen soldiers will be held in all military units in the country and in those deployed outside the national territory.
***
The crashed plane near Cogealac, in an uninhabited area, was part of a formation of two MiG-21 LanceR planes performing air patrol missions over Dobrogea.
The radio connection of the control tower with the crashed aircraft was lost at 20.00, and at 20.03 it disappeared from the radar, in an area between Cogealac and Gura Dobrogei.
All aircraft of the type involved in the aviation catastrophes on the evening of March 2, MiG-21 LanceR, respectively IAR 330 Puma, were recorded on the ground until the causes of the crashes were elucidated.

Press office


----------



## Spencer100

Good2Golf said:


> I’m holding out for a TOS-1…we have a bit of a nosey neighbour down the street and….well, you know…
> View attachment 69135


Hey if they add in that Panstir-1s (I'll spring for the new tires.) do you think we can get a package discount?


----------



## KevinB

Spencer100 said:


> Hey if they add in that Panstir-1s (I'll spring for the new tires.) do you think we can get a package discount?


It was torched by UKR Territorial Defense afterwards.  Apparently they didn’t have the recovery ability at that time, and preferred RU didn’t get it back.


----------



## Good2Golf

Spencer100 said:


> Hey if they add in that Panstir-1s (I'll spring for the new tires.) do you think we can get a package discount?


While I’d normally stretch for a 2S6 Tanguska, the track maintenance on top of that for the TOS-1 would max out my tools, so if we get a bulk discount on a TOS-1/Panstir package and you DHL the spare tires over, I’m in! 👍🏼


----------



## QV

Jarnhamar said:


> MP Bardish Chagger's petition e-3821 to Cancel the competition to purchase new combat aircraft doesn't seem to be getting that much traction. Some interesting points including.


A part of me believes if you try and disrupt national security in this fashion, you must be working for the enemy.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499070855325884418


----------



## KevinB

QV said:


> A part of me believes if you try and disrupt national security in this fashion, you must be working for the enemy.


There are way more stupid people in the world who are criminally naïve, as opposed to intentionally malignant.


----------



## QV

TacticalTea said:


> I know! Absolute madness!
> 
> And it's a LIBERAL MP!
> 
> What have we come to...


It’s not shocking it came from a member of the LPC.


----------



## QV

KevinB said:


> There are way more stupid people in the world who are criminally naïve, as opposed to intentionally malignant.


One is only slightly more dangerous than the other.


----------



## Kirkhill

It will be interesting to watch Worlds Collide.  LPC-NDP, Charest-Poilievre, Bloc.  Fascinating time ahead.


----------



## QV

Kirkhill said:


> Fascinating time ahead.


Indeed.

Someone should ask Obama if we’re getting back the 1980s foreign policy now… 

Does Hillary’s Russian reset button still work?

Maybe we could continue to mock Trump for pushing the NATO 2% or criticizing Euro dependence on Russian O&G…


----------



## McG

Is this for real … and is the rate competitive for hiring an adequately qualified crew?








						$1 million bounty on Putin offered by Russian businessman
					

In a social media post, Russian entrepreneur Alex Konanykhin said that the Russian president came to power by "blowing up apartment buildings in Russia.”




					www.jpost.com


----------



## TacticalTea

QV said:


> Indeed.
> 
> Someone should ask Obama if we’re getting back the 1980s foreign policy now…
> 
> Does Hillary’s Russian reset button still work?
> 
> Maybe we could continue to mock Trump for pushing the NATO 2% or criticizing Euro dependence on Russian O&G…


Very early on I thought Trump's provocations were great for Canada and Europe in that it'd force both to realize they couldn't always rely on the US and had to 1. Diversify their commerce, 2. Become more autonomous in terms of governance, and 3. Bolster their defences.


----------



## Good2Golf

McG said:


> Is this for real … and is the rate competitive for hiring an adequately qualified crew?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> $1 million bounty on Putin offered by Russian businessman
> 
> 
> In a social media post, Russian entrepreneur Alex Konanykhin said that the Russian president came to power by "blowing up apartment buildings in Russia.”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.jpost.com


..."Russian entrepreneur Alex Konanykhin will be found on the ground below the balcony of his 61st floor luxury apartment tomorrow, after earlier comments made disparaging the pedigree of President Vladimir Putin's electoral  success."


----------



## Kirkhill

QV said:


> Does Hillary’s Russian reset button still work?



I wonder if Hillary still thinks it was a a good idea to show up for a meeting with a nuclear competitor promising to reset relations with a big, red button?


----------



## HiTechComms

KevinB said:


> There are way more stupid people in the world who are criminally naïve, as opposed to intentionally malignant.



Never ascribe to malice, that which can be explained by stupidity
Don’t ascribe to malice what can be plainly explained by incompetence.
Hanlon's Razor


----------



## Kirkhill

McG said:


> Is this for real … and is the rate competitive for hiring an adequately qualified crew?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> $1 million bounty on Putin offered by Russian businessman
> 
> 
> In a social media post, Russian entrepreneur Alex Konanykhin said that the Russian president came to power by "blowing up apartment buildings in Russia.”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.jpost.com


Must be one of Russia's Battlers,  the Russian equivalent of the middle class of Aussies as described by John Howard.  Howard said that his Battlers struggled to play by the rules.

This guy is obviously playing by the local rules but a million seems kind of light for Vlad.


----------



## Kirkhill

The official said there is no evidence that Belarussian troops have entered Ukraine.









						Ukrainian Resistance, Logistics Nightmares Plague Russian Invaders
					

Russian troops invading Ukraine have made some progress in the southern part of the country but are facing a logistics breakdown with vehicles running out of fuel and troops running out of food, a



					www.defense.gov
				



Yeah Vlad, I'm right with you.  You go on ahead and I'll catch up.   Just have to finish buckling this banger board binding.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> Must be one of Russia's Battlers,  the Russian equivalent of the middle class of Aussies as described by John Howard.  Howard said that his Battlers struggled to play by the rules.
> 
> This guy is obviously playing by the local rules but a million seems kind of light for Vlad.


The Albanians would do it for a million.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499131249599950848


Lightly used, two owners only.


----------



## The Bread Guy

IAEA says RUS reports seizure of Zaporizhzhia nuke station (text also attached in case link doesn't work) ...




__





						Update 6 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine | IAEA
					






					www.iaea.org
				



... while UKR asks for no-fly zones over nuke plants








						Ukraine asks IAEA to close sky above nuclear sites amid Russia invasion
					

Ukraine asked the the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to seek NATO help with closing the air over Ukrainian nuclear sitest to prevent act of "nuclear terrorism" by Russia, Kyiv's energy ministry said on Thursday.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499278184407314437


----------



## The Bread Guy

So, true, or only "Pravda True"?








						Deputy Commander of the 41st Army, Major General Sukhovetsky, killed in Ukraine
					

Andrei Sukhovetsky graduated from the Ryazan Higher Airborne Command School in 1995




					english.pravda.ru
				



Text also attached 

Some Russian-language OS confirmation out there, attributing a correspondent for RUS media Komosomolskya Pravda (used to be USSR Communist Party youth wing organ, now owned by a RUS energy company with links to RUS state gas (with a bit of Norwegian private equity in there).


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499370960973086721


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499363570798243841


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499360423501565953


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499363570798243841


So I guess more than just "Pravda True"


----------



## KevinB

Remember to bury the truth...








						Echo of Moscow, a liberal Russian radio station, is shut down.
					






					www.nytimes.com


----------



## KevinB

1 Million Refugees








						One week into the war and with cities under siege, a humanitarian crisis looms.
					






					www.nytimes.com


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499363570798243841


Good. I hope he has a pitchfork lodged in his colon in Hell at the moment.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> 1 Million Refugees
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> One week into the war and with cities under siege, a humanitarian crisis looms.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com


And if Kiev/Kharkiv fall, that number will double at a min.


----------



## Czech_pivo

And the body blows to Russia keep coming.  If their reservation system goes down, it will be chaos in trying to book tickets on Aeroflot planes. 

Airline software giant ends service with Russia’s Aeroflot, crippling carrier’s ability to sell seats​

Sabre Corp. on Thursday said it terminated its agreement with Russia’s Aeroflot, crippling the country’s largest airline’s ability to sell seats.

The Texas-based airline software giant provides airline ticket distribution and reservation services for airlines around the world. Sabre’s decision is the latest that has isolated Russia’s airlines since the country invaded Ukraine last week.

Boeing, General Electric and other aerospace manufacturers have suspended parts distribution and service agreements with Russia as countries, led by the U.S. and European nations, impose sanctions in protest of Russia’s invasion.

“Sabre has been monitoring the evolving situation in Ukraine with increasing concern,” Sean Menke, Sabre’s CEO, said in a statement. “We are taking a stand against this military conflict. We are complying, and will continue to comply, with sanctions imposed against Russia.”









						Airline software giant ends distribution service with Russia's Aeroflot, crippling carrier's ability to sell seats
					

Texas-based Sabre said it ended its distribution agreement with Aeroflot.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## MilEME09

On the ground: Kherson resident tells CNN that people are struggling to get food and medicine
					

Russia has ramped up assaults on key Ukrainian cities, as President Zelensky pleads for more international assistance and a second round of talks between Ukraine and Russia are set to take place. Follow here for live news updates from on the ground in Ukraine.




					www.cnn.com
				




Russia apparently has been looting food and medical supplies in Kherson


----------



## Altair

Edit: Already posted.


----------



## KevinB

Apparently the Empire has joined with Russia  - seriously watch the video 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499380929567072265


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Altair said:


> Listen, I have not once, not once, said what Russia is doing is acceptable. I limited my arcs here as to whether what I'm seeing on Tictok, telegram, twitter, is a war crime or not.
> 
> Purely objective, fact based. As soldiers, we need to respect the LOAC, the GC, regardless of what the enemy does. If the soldier you have just been fighting was using human shields, raping and murdering civilians, shooting at medics, do we get to turn a blind eye to the GC and LOAC and do what we please, simply justifying it by saying we are still better than they? Do we deny them first aid? Do we film them and post their images online?
> 
> No.
> 
> So while I'm a firm Ukraine supporter here, if this is a WC, I will call it out as such.


I can agree in principle that following LOAC, GC, and other articles of war are crucial to maintaining civility in times of war. I will always hold my leaders and my subordinates accountable for upholding the most ethical of conduct. 

However

I saw dudes taking pictures and videos in Afghan. No one batted an eye. There was no declaration of war. There was no uniformed enemy. We would have been reading a hostage note on camera before being beheaded if we were captured. The  Taliban did not respect the Red Cross and actively shot at our Medics, (who I also saw on Tower duty behind a C6, which is against the GC.). Will we see the likes of Hillier, Natynchuk, Devlin, or Leslie in the Hague? Probably not.

That is why I see this "special operation" as a similar conflict. To believe we'll see Zelensky or Ukrainian TDF members in the Hague beside Russian adversaries over a TikTok is laughable.


----------



## KevinB

rmc_wannabe said:


> The  Taliban did not respect the Red Cross and actively shot at our Medics, (who I also saw on Tower duty behind a C6, which is against the GC.). Will we see the likes of Hillier, Natynchuk, Devlin, or Leslie in the Hague? Probably not.


Medics can carry weapons and use ANY weapon to protect themselves and their charges.


----------



## WLSC

KevinB said:


> Medics can carry weapons and use ANY weapon to protect themselves and their charges.


Yep 100% with you.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499366007663697928
Russia may be putting mines in international waters around Ukraine


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> Medics can carry weapons and use ANY weapon to protect themselves and their charges.


Shades of Grey. Again.

Under active fire providing aid? Hell yeah. Thrown up as part of communal defence? Your call.


----------



## Altair

rmc_wannabe said:


> I can agree in principle that following LOAC, GC, and other articles of war are crucial to maintaining civility in times of war. I will always hold my leaders and my subordinates accountable for upholding the most ethical of conduct.


Your post should really have ended right there.


rmc_wannabe said:


> However
> 
> I saw dudes taking pictures and videos in Afghan. No one batted an eye.


Were these photos and videos posted for everyone to see?

ARTICLE 13 : HUMANE TREATMENT OF PRISONERS

Text of the provision*

(1) Prisoners of war must at all times be humanely treated. Any unlawful act or omission by the Detaining Power causing death or seriously endangering the health of a prisoner of war in its custody is prohibited and will be regarded as a serious breach of the present Convention. In particular, no prisoner of war may be subjected to physical mutilation or to medical or scientific experiments of any kind which are not justified by the medical, dental or hospital treatment of the prisoner concerned and carried out in his interest.

(2) Likewise, prisoners of war must at all times be protected, particularly against acts of violence or intimidation and against insults and public curiosity.

(3) Measures of reprisal against prisoners of war are prohibited.


rmc_wannabe said:


> There was no declaration of war. There was no uniformed enemy. We would have been reading a hostage note on camera before being beheaded if we were captured. The  Taliban did not respect the Red Cross and actively shot at our Medics, (who I also saw on Tower duty behind a C6, which is against the GC.). Will we see the likes of Hillier, Natynchuk, Devlin, or Leslie in the Hague? Probably not.


Being better than your enemy is not that hard a concept. Or do CAF members and our allies work on the eye for an eye system?


rmc_wannabe said:


> That is why I see this "special operation" as a similar conflict. To believe we'll see Zelensky or Ukrainian TDF members in the Hague beside Russian adversaries over a TikTok is laughable.


Seeing anyone held accountable is laughable, but one can simply state they expect the GC and LOAC to be applied by all parties, friend or foe.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499391351829397506


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499257148974723072


----------



## Altair

__





						Treaties, States parties, and Commentaries - Geneva Convention (III) on Prisoners of War, 1949 - 13 - Article 13 : Humane treatment of prisoners - Commentary of 2020
					





					ihl-databases.icrc.org
				




*1624  *Being exposed to ‘public curiosity’ as a prisoner of war, even when such exposure is not accompanied by insulting remarks or actions, is humiliating in itself and therefore specifically prohibited. For the purposes of the present article, ‘public’ should be interpreted as referring to anyone who is not directly involved in handling the prisoners of war, including other members of the Detaining Power. Exposure to public curiosity can take many forms. The prohibition undoubtedly covers parading prisoners in public.[112] Moreover, prisoners must not be exposed to humiliation when they leave their camp for work, are transferred to another facility or are being repatriated.[113] In modern conflicts, the prohibition also covers, subject to the considerations discussed below, the disclosure of photographic and video images, recordings of interrogations or private conversations or personal correspondence or any other private data, irrespective of which public communication channel is used, including the internet. Although this is seemingly different from being marched through a hostile crowd, such disclosure could still be humiliating and jeopardize the safety of the prisoners’ families and of the prisoners themselves once they are released.

From the RC.

So I don't think its too much to ask for those in Ukraine to stop doing this.

I will personally not share any more videos of that here, or anywhere else after having done a little digging about the subject.


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## KevinB

Altair said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Treaties, States parties, and Commentaries - Geneva Convention (III) on Prisoners of War, 1949 - 13 - Article 13 : Humane treatment of prisoners - Commentary of 2020
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ihl-databases.icrc.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *1624  *Being exposed to ‘public curiosity’ as a prisoner of war, even when such exposure is not accompanied by insulting remarks or actions, is humiliating in itself and therefore specifically prohibited. For the purposes of the present article, ‘public’ should be interpreted as referring to anyone who is not directly involved in handling the prisoners of war, including other members of the Detaining Power. Exposure to public curiosity can take many forms. The prohibition undoubtedly covers parading prisoners in public.[112] Moreover, prisoners must not be exposed to humiliation when they leave their camp for work, are transferred to another facility or are being repatriated.[113] In modern conflicts, the prohibition also covers, subject to the considerations discussed below, the disclosure of photographic and video images, recordings of interrogations or private conversations or personal correspondence or any other private data, irrespective of which public communication channel is used, including the internet. Although this is seemingly different from being marched through a hostile crowd, such disclosure could still be humiliating and jeopardize the safety of the prisoners’ families and of the prisoners themselves once they are released.
> 
> From the RC.
> 
> So I don't think its too much to ask for those in Ukraine to stop doing this.


Digital age.

No one gave a shit when the North Vietnamese did it to shot down US personnel in Vietnam - so my sympathy is a little light (read non existent) for the Russian forces.

 Frankly I consider it a win that the UKR civilians aren't just lining the Russians up and shooting them in the back of the head.
   If someone invaded my country like that - I wouldn't give two shits what a piece of paper said.
Which is why I understood why Afghan and Iraqi's did what they did at times, and why we needed not to be viewed as Invaders but as a friend who was their to help them temporarily rebuild.


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## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499398725549969423




__





						Extraordinary meeting of NATO Ministers of Foreign Affairs (updated)
					






					www.nato.int


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## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499399204489383936


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## KevinB

UKR opens 24/7 mental health support for civilians 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499401809646870532


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## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499111544717783043


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## Altair

KevinB said:


> Digital age.


The RC specifically mentions the internet age.


KevinB said:


> No one gave a shit when the North Vietnamese did it to shot down US personnel in Vietnam - so my sympathy is a little light (read non existent) for the Russian forces.


I think a lot of people gave a shit. Ironically, Americans most of all. 


KevinB said:


> Frankly I consider it a win that the UKR civilians aren't just lining the Russians up and shooting them in the back of the head.
> If someone invaded my country like that - I wouldn't give two shits what a piece of paper said.


I would like to think that I would NOT violate the geneva convention. 


KevinB said:


> Which is why I understood why Afghan and Iraqi's did what they did at times, and why we needed not to be viewed as Invaders but as a friend who was their to help them temporarily rebuild.


Of course, turning a blind eye to war crimes because they are committed by our side is always the best policy. 









						Canadian soldiers complained Iraqi troops they were training were war criminals
					

The Canadian personnel were told by their officers the problem would be dealt with.




					ottawacitizen.com
				






> Canadian soldiers complained to their commanders that the Iraqi troops they were training were war criminals who liked to show videos of their atrocities, including executing prisoners and raping a woman to death.



Those silly soldiers.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> The RC specifically mentions the internet age.
> 
> I think a lot of people gave a shit. Ironically, Americans most of all.
> 
> I would like to think that I would NOT violate the geneva convention.
> 
> Of course, turning a blind eye to war crimes because they are committed by our side is always the best policy.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canadian soldiers complained Iraqi troops they were training were war criminals
> 
> 
> The Canadian personnel were told by their officers the problem would be dealt with.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ottawacitizen.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Those silly soldiers.


My context for Iraq and Afghan was the insurgents against us.

   Not the Training Missions in Iraq or Syria 


My point was in the grand scheme that the uploads of Russian soldiers in minor, and could be argued to be justified if it can stop a larger war.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> My context for Iraq and Afghan was the insurgents against us.
> 
> Not the Training Missions in Iraq or Syria


Still, they were not as bad as ISIL, so just little war crimes are okay, yes?


KevinB said:


> My point was in the grand scheme that the uploads of Russian soldiers in minor, and could be argued to be justified if it can stop a larger war.


Lets just not justify any potential war crimes on either side, ya? Ya. 

Still love Ukraine, but one should never be afraid of calling out bad behavior.


----------



## Blackadder1916

Altair said:


> . . .  I limited my arcs here as to whether what I'm seeing on Tictok, telegram, twitter, is a war crime or not.



Maybe it would help if the "legal" definition of a "war crime" according to the Rome Statute of The International Criminal Court (it, after all, would be the organ used to prosecute such violations if a national court didn't deal with its own people).





__





						United Nations Office on Genocide Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect
					

Genocide Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect



					www.un.org
				




Definition​Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court​*Article 8
War Crimes*

The Court shall have jurisdiction in respect of war crimes in particular when committed as part of a plan or policy or as part of a large-scale commission of such crimes.
For the purpose of this Statute, ‘war crimes’ means:
Grave breaches of the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949, namely, any of the following acts against persons or property protected under the provisions of the relevant Geneva Convention:
Wilful killing
Torture or inhuman treatment, including biological experiments;
Wilfully causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or health;
Extensive destruction and appropriation of property, not justified by military necessity and carried out unlawfully and wantonly;
Compelling a prisoner of war or other protected person to serve in the forces of a hostile Power;
Wilfully depriving a prisoner of war or other protected person of the rights of fair and regular trial;
Unlawful deportation or transfer or unlawful confinement;
Taking of hostages.

Other serious violations of the laws and customs applicable in international armed conflict, within the established framework of international law, namely, any of the following acts:
Intentionally directing attacks against the civilian population as such or against individual civilians not taking direct part in hostilities;
Intentionally directing attacks against civilian objects, that is, objects which are not military objectives;
Intentionally directing attacks against personnel, installations, material, units or vehicles involved in a humanitarian assistance or peacekeeping mission in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations, as long as they are entitled to the protection given to civilians or civilian objects under the international law of armed conflict;
Intentionally launching an attack in the knowledge that such attack will cause incidental loss of life or injury to civilians or damage to civilian objects or widespread, long-term and severe damage to the natural environment which would be clearly excessive in relation to the concrete and direct overall military advantage anticipated;
Attacking or bombarding, by whatever means, towns, villages, dwellings or buildings which are undefended and which are not military objectives;
Killing or wounding a combatant who, having laid down his arms or having no longer means of defence, has surrendered at discretion;
Making improper use of a flag of truce, of the flag or of the military insignia and uniform of the enemy or of the United Nations, as well as of the distinctive emblems of the Geneva Conventions, resulting in death or serious personal injury;
The transfer, directly or indirectly, by the Occupying Power of parts of its own civilian population into the territory it occupies, or the deportation or transfer of all or parts of the population of the occupied territory within or outside this territory;
Intentionally directing attacks against buildings dedicated to religion, education, art, science or charitable purposes, historic monuments, hospitals and places where the sick and wounded are collected, provided they are not military objectives;
Subjecting persons who are in the power of an adverse party to physical mutilation or to medical or scientific experiments of any kind which are neither justified by the medical, dental or hospital treatment of the person concerned nor carried out in his or her interest, and which cause death to or seriously endanger the health of such person or persons;
Killing or wounding treacherously individuals belonging to the hostile nation or army;
Declaring that no quarter will be given;
Destroying or seizing the enemy's property unless such destruction or seizure be imperatively demanded by the necessities of war;
Declaring abolished, suspended or inadmissible in a court of law the rights and actions of the nationals of the hostile party;
Compelling the nationals of the hostile party to take part in the operations of war directed against their own country, even if they were in the belligerent's service before the commencement of the war;
Pillaging a town or place, even when taken by assault;
Employing poison or poisoned weapons;
Employing asphyxiating, poisonous or other gases, and all analogous liquids, materials or devices;
Employing bullets which expand or flatten easily in the human body, such as bullets with a hard envelope which does not entirely cover the core or is pierced with incisions;
Employing weapons, projectiles and material and methods of warfare which are of a nature to cause superfluous injury or unnecessary suffering or which are inherently indiscriminate in violation of the international law of armed conflict, provided that such weapons, projectiles and material and methods of warfare are the subject of a comprehensive prohibition and are included in an annex to this Statute, by an amendment in accordance with the relevant provisions set forth in articles 121 and 123;
Committing outrages upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment;
Committing rape, sexual slavery, enforced prostitution, forced pregnancy, as defined in article 7, paragraph 2 (f), enforced sterilization, or any other form of sexual violence also constituting a grave breach of the Geneva Conventions;
Utilizing the presence of a civilian or other protected person to render certain points, areas or military forces immune from military operations;
Intentionally directing attacks against buildings, material, medical units and transport, and personnel using the distinctive emblems of the Geneva Conventions in conformity with international law;
Intentionally using starvation of civilians as a method of warfare by depriving them of objects indispensable to their survival, including wilfully impeding relief supplies as provided for under the Geneva Conventions;
Conscripting or enlisting children under the age of fifteen years into the national armed forces or using them to participate actively in hostilities.

In the case of an armed conflict not of an international character, serious violations of article 3 common to the four Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949, namely, any of the following acts committed against persons taking no active part in the hostilities, including members of armed forces who have laid down their arms and those placed hors de combat by sickness, wounds, detention or any other cause:
Violence to life and person, in particular murder of all kinds, mutilation, cruel treatment and torture;
Committing outrages upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment;
Taking of hostages;
The passing of sentences and the carrying out of executions without previous judgement pronounced by a regularly constituted court, affording all judicial guarantees which are generally recognized as indispensable.

Paragraph 2 (c) applies to armed conflicts not of an international character and thus does not apply to situations of internal disturbances and tensions, such as riots, isolated and sporadic acts of violence or other acts of a similar nature.
Other serious violations of the laws and customs applicable in armed conflicts not of an international character, within the established framework of international law, namely, any of the following acts:
Intentionally directing attacks against the civilian population as such or against individual civilians not taking direct part in hostilities;
Intentionally directing attacks against buildings, material, medical units and transport, and personnel using the distinctive emblems of the Geneva Conventions in conformity with international law;
Intentionally directing attacks against personnel, installations, material, units or vehicles involved in a humanitarian assistance or peacekeeping mission in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations, as long as they are entitled to the protection given to civilians or civilian objects under the international law of armed conflict;
Intentionally directing attacks against buildings dedicated to religion, education, art, science or charitable purposes, historic monuments, hospitals and places where the sick and wounded are collected, provided they are not military objectives;
Pillaging a town or place, even when taken by assault;
Committing rape, sexual slavery, enforced prostitution, forced pregnancy, as defined in article 7, paragraph 2 (f), enforced sterilization, and any other form of sexual violence also constituting a serious violation of article 3 common to the four Geneva Conventions;
Conscripting or enlisting children under the age of fifteen years into armed forces or groups or using them to participate actively in hostilities;
Ordering the displacement of the civilian population for reasons related to the conflict, unless the security of the civilians involved or imperative military reasons so demand;
Killing or wounding treacherously a combatant adversary;
Declaring that no quarter will be given;
Subjecting persons who are in the power of another party to the conflict to physical mutilation or to medical or scientific experiments of any kind which are neither justified by the medical, dental or hospital treatment of the person concerned nor carried out in his or her interest, and which cause death to or seriously endanger the health of such person or persons;
Destroying or seizing the property of an adversary unless such destruction or seizure be imperatively demanded by the necessities of the conflict;

Paragraph 2 (e) applies to armed conflicts not of an international character and thus does not apply to situations of internal disturbances and tensions, such as riots, isolated and sporadic acts of violence or other acts of a similar nature. It applies to armed conflicts that take place in the territory of a State when there is protracted armed conflict between governmental authorities and organized armed groups or between such groups.

Nothing in paragraph 2 (c) and (e) shall affect the responsibility of a Government to maintain or re-establish law and order in the State or to defend the unity and territorial integrity of the State, by all legitimate means.

It's a long list but pictures and photographing are not mentioned (okay, I'm verging on sarcasm).  Note the few highlights I added.  Does putting dejected Ivan on Twitter make it a "grave" or "serious" breach of the conventions or does it constitute an "outrage upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment"?  One (especially an old fart like myself) could be of the opinion that any use of social media is a degrading practice (for the practitioner as well as the subject of comment/image).

In one commentary about the subject I found this interesting:

The Third Geneva Convention of 1949 (the Prisoners of War Convention) contains no provisions specifically regulating the circumstances in which prisoners of war can be photographed. The only article which touches on the subject is Article 13, paragraph 2, which states that:

"... _prisoners of war must at all times be protected, particularly against acts of violence or intimidation and against insults and public curiosity._"


----------



## Altair

Blackadder1916 said:


> Maybe it would help if the "legal" definition of a "war crime" according to the Rome Statute of The International Criminal Court (it, after all, would be the organ used to prosecute such violations if a national court didn't deal with its own people).
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> United Nations Office on Genocide Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect
> 
> 
> Genocide Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect
> 
> 
> 
> www.un.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Definition​Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court​*Article 8
> War Crimes*
> 
> The Court shall have jurisdiction in respect of war crimes in particular when committed as part of a plan or policy or as part of a large-scale commission of such crimes.
> For the purpose of this Statute, ‘war crimes’ means:
> Grave breaches of the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949, namely, any of the following acts against persons or property protected under the provisions of the relevant Geneva Convention:
> Wilful killing
> Torture or inhuman treatment, including biological experiments;
> Wilfully causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or health;
> Extensive destruction and appropriation of property, not justified by military necessity and carried out unlawfully and wantonly;
> Compelling a prisoner of war or other protected person to serve in the forces of a hostile Power;
> Wilfully depriving a prisoner of war or other protected person of the rights of fair and regular trial;
> Unlawful deportation or transfer or unlawful confinement;
> Taking of hostages.
> 
> Other serious violations of the laws and customs applicable in international armed conflict, within the established framework of international law, namely, any of the following acts:
> Intentionally directing attacks against the civilian population as such or against individual civilians not taking direct part in hostilities;
> Intentionally directing attacks against civilian objects, that is, objects which are not military objectives;
> Intentionally directing attacks against personnel, installations, material, units or vehicles involved in a humanitarian assistance or peacekeeping mission in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations, as long as they are entitled to the protection given to civilians or civilian objects under the international law of armed conflict;
> Intentionally launching an attack in the knowledge that such attack will cause incidental loss of life or injury to civilians or damage to civilian objects or widespread, long-term and severe damage to the natural environment which would be clearly excessive in relation to the concrete and direct overall military advantage anticipated;
> Attacking or bombarding, by whatever means, towns, villages, dwellings or buildings which are undefended and which are not military objectives;
> Killing or wounding a combatant who, having laid down his arms or having no longer means of defence, has surrendered at discretion;
> Making improper use of a flag of truce, of the flag or of the military insignia and uniform of the enemy or of the United Nations, as well as of the distinctive emblems of the Geneva Conventions, resulting in death or serious personal injury;
> The transfer, directly or indirectly, by the Occupying Power of parts of its own civilian population into the territory it occupies, or the deportation or transfer of all or parts of the population of the occupied territory within or outside this territory;
> Intentionally directing attacks against buildings dedicated to religion, education, art, science or charitable purposes, historic monuments, hospitals and places where the sick and wounded are collected, provided they are not military objectives;
> Subjecting persons who are in the power of an adverse party to physical mutilation or to medical or scientific experiments of any kind which are neither justified by the medical, dental or hospital treatment of the person concerned nor carried out in his or her interest, and which cause death to or seriously endanger the health of such person or persons;
> Killing or wounding treacherously individuals belonging to the hostile nation or army;
> Declaring that no quarter will be given;
> Destroying or seizing the enemy's property unless such destruction or seizure be imperatively demanded by the necessities of war;
> Declaring abolished, suspended or inadmissible in a court of law the rights and actions of the nationals of the hostile party;
> Compelling the nationals of the hostile party to take part in the operations of war directed against their own country, even if they were in the belligerent's service before the commencement of the war;
> Pillaging a town or place, even when taken by assault;
> Employing poison or poisoned weapons;
> Employing asphyxiating, poisonous or other gases, and all analogous liquids, materials or devices;
> Employing bullets which expand or flatten easily in the human body, such as bullets with a hard envelope which does not entirely cover the core or is pierced with incisions;
> Employing weapons, projectiles and material and methods of warfare which are of a nature to cause superfluous injury or unnecessary suffering or which are inherently indiscriminate in violation of the international law of armed conflict, provided that such weapons, projectiles and material and methods of warfare are the subject of a comprehensive prohibition and are included in an annex to this Statute, by an amendment in accordance with the relevant provisions set forth in articles 121 and 123;
> Committing outrages upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment;
> Committing rape, sexual slavery, enforced prostitution, forced pregnancy, as defined in article 7, paragraph 2 (f), enforced sterilization, or any other form of sexual violence also constituting a grave breach of the Geneva Conventions;
> Utilizing the presence of a civilian or other protected person to render certain points, areas or military forces immune from military operations;
> Intentionally directing attacks against buildings, material, medical units and transport, and personnel using the distinctive emblems of the Geneva Conventions in conformity with international law;
> Intentionally using starvation of civilians as a method of warfare by depriving them of objects indispensable to their survival, including wilfully impeding relief supplies as provided for under the Geneva Conventions;
> Conscripting or enlisting children under the age of fifteen years into the national armed forces or using them to participate actively in hostilities.
> 
> In the case of an armed conflict not of an international character, serious violations of article 3 common to the four Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949, namely, any of the following acts committed against persons taking no active part in the hostilities, including members of armed forces who have laid down their arms and those placed hors de combat by sickness, wounds, detention or any other cause:
> Violence to life and person, in particular murder of all kinds, mutilation, cruel treatment and torture;
> Committing outrages upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment;
> Taking of hostages;
> The passing of sentences and the carrying out of executions without previous judgement pronounced by a regularly constituted court, affording all judicial guarantees which are generally recognized as indispensable.
> 
> Paragraph 2 (c) applies to armed conflicts not of an international character and thus does not apply to situations of internal disturbances and tensions, such as riots, isolated and sporadic acts of violence or other acts of a similar nature.
> Other serious violations of the laws and customs applicable in armed conflicts not of an international character, within the established framework of international law, namely, any of the following acts:
> Intentionally directing attacks against the civilian population as such or against individual civilians not taking direct part in hostilities;
> Intentionally directing attacks against buildings, material, medical units and transport, and personnel using the distinctive emblems of the Geneva Conventions in conformity with international law;
> Intentionally directing attacks against personnel, installations, material, units or vehicles involved in a humanitarian assistance or peacekeeping mission in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations, as long as they are entitled to the protection given to civilians or civilian objects under the international law of armed conflict;
> Intentionally directing attacks against buildings dedicated to religion, education, art, science or charitable purposes, historic monuments, hospitals and places where the sick and wounded are collected, provided they are not military objectives;
> Pillaging a town or place, even when taken by assault;
> Committing rape, sexual slavery, enforced prostitution, forced pregnancy, as defined in article 7, paragraph 2 (f), enforced sterilization, and any other form of sexual violence also constituting a serious violation of article 3 common to the four Geneva Conventions;
> Conscripting or enlisting children under the age of fifteen years into armed forces or groups or using them to participate actively in hostilities;
> Ordering the displacement of the civilian population for reasons related to the conflict, unless the security of the civilians involved or imperative military reasons so demand;
> Killing or wounding treacherously a combatant adversary;
> Declaring that no quarter will be given;
> Subjecting persons who are in the power of another party to the conflict to physical mutilation or to medical or scientific experiments of any kind which are neither justified by the medical, dental or hospital treatment of the person concerned nor carried out in his or her interest, and which cause death to or seriously endanger the health of such person or persons;
> Destroying or seizing the property of an adversary unless such destruction or seizure be imperatively demanded by the necessities of the conflict;
> 
> Paragraph 2 (e) applies to armed conflicts not of an international character and thus does not apply to situations of internal disturbances and tensions, such as riots, isolated and sporadic acts of violence or other acts of a similar nature. It applies to armed conflicts that take place in the territory of a State when there is protracted armed conflict between governmental authorities and organized armed groups or between such groups.
> 
> Nothing in paragraph 2 (c) and (e) shall affect the responsibility of a Government to maintain or re-establish law and order in the State or to defend the unity and territorial integrity of the State, by all legitimate means.
> 
> It's a long list and pictures and photographing is not mentioned (okay, I'm verging on sarcasm).  Note the few highlights I added.  Does putting dejected Ivan on Twitter make it a "grave" or "serious" breach of the conventions or does it constitute an "outrage upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment"?  One (especially an old fart like myself) could be of the opinion that any use of social media is a degrading practice.
> 
> In one commentary about the subject I found this interesting:
> 
> The Third Geneva Convention of 1949 (the Prisoners of War Convention) contains no provisions specifically regulating the circumstances in which prisoners of war can be photographed. The only article which touches on the subject is Article 13, paragraph 2, which states that:
> 
> "... _prisoners of war must at all times be protected, particularly against acts of violence or intimidation and against insults and public curiosity._"


Would TikTok, twitter, telegram and other social media be considered public curiosity? 

I would say yes.


----------



## Remius

Blackadder’s post is on point.  About intent. 

Also, and I’m sure some legal type can correct me, but the Geneva convention does not apply to private groups or individuals.  So some farmer filming a PW eating bread and saying hi to mom, to me is not a war crime.  That would include non embedded media who are not acting on behalf of or with the state.


----------



## Remius

Altair said:


> Would TikTok, twitter, telegram and other social media be considered public curiosity?
> 
> I would say yes.


Those people using titok, unless acting for the state are not likely subject to the convention.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Meanwhile, there's nothing like a little collective international, collective 'pearl clutching' and navel gazing to magnify the bystander effect, and allow agressors like Putin to carry on relatively unopposed:



Bystander Effect​
The bystander effect occurs when the presence of others discourages an individual from intervening in an emergency situation, against a bully, or during an assault or other crime. The greater the number of bystanders, the less likely it is for any one of them to provide help to a person in distress. People are more likely to take action in a crisis when there are few or no other witnesses present.






						Bystander Effect
					

The bystander effect occurs when the presence of others discourages an individual from intervening in an emergency situation, against a bully, or during an assault or other crime. The greater the number of bystanders, the less likely it is for any one of them to provide help to a person in...




					www.psychologytoday.com


----------



## Brad Sallows

The GC, with the AP, etc, are in plain language.  Read them.

There's a difference between parading PWs to be jeered at by people and distributing images of that, and providing information that might reasonably disclose whether someone is captive rather than missing.


----------



## Altair

Remius said:


> Blackadder’s post is on point.  About intent.
> 
> Also, and I’m sure some legal type can correct me, but the Geneva convention does not apply to private groups or individuals.  So some farmer filming a PW eating bread and saying hi to mom, to me is not a war crime.  That would include non embedded media who are not acting on behalf of or with the state.





Remius said:


> Those people using titok, unless acting for the state are not likely subject to the convention.




Which is why I originally thought it would be okay, and why I posted the video that I did. (Although there are many others with Ukrainian military personnel doing the filming and uploading) 

But post #5768 does raise an interesting point, recognized organizations might be subject to it. If people who are joining the Ukrainian Territorial Defense force are doing this, is it no longer okay? 









						Ukraine says anyone who can hold a weapon can join territorial defence forces
					

Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said that anyone who is ready and able to hold a weapon can join the ranks of the territorial defence forces, as the police said they would distribute weapons to veterans.




					economictimes.indiatimes.com
				






> Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov on Thursday said that anyone who is ready and able to hold a weapon can join the ranks of the territorial defence forces, as the police said they would distribute weapons to veterans.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

@Blackadder1916 Thank you for your clarifying post.


----------



## Altair

Brad Sallows said:


> The GC, with the AP, etc, are in plain language.  Read them.
> 
> There's a difference between parading PWs to be jeered at by people and distributing images of that, and providing information that might reasonably disclose whether someone is captive rather than missing.


Okay, I'm going to talk about the video I posted. 

The soldier was already talking to his mother via video messaging. Disclosure done. 

The disclosure was filmed and posted to the internet. 

Public curiosity, no?


----------



## TacticalTea

Blackadder1916 said:


> Maybe it would help if the "legal" definition of a "war crime" according to the Rome Statute of The International Criminal Court (it, after all, would be the organ used to prosecute such violations if a national court didn't deal with its own people).
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> United Nations Office on Genocide Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect
> 
> 
> Genocide Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect
> 
> 
> 
> www.un.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Definition​Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court​*Article 8
> War Crimes*
> 
> The Court shall have jurisdiction in respect of war crimes in particular when committed as part of a plan or policy or as part of a large-scale commission of such crimes.
> For the purpose of this Statute, ‘war crimes’ means:
> Grave breaches of the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949, namely, any of the following acts against persons or property protected under the provisions of the relevant Geneva Convention:
> Wilful killing
> Torture or inhuman treatment, including biological experiments;
> Wilfully causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or health;
> Extensive destruction and appropriation of property, not justified by military necessity and carried out unlawfully and wantonly;
> Compelling a prisoner of war or other protected person to serve in the forces of a hostile Power;
> Wilfully depriving a prisoner of war or other protected person of the rights of fair and regular trial;
> Unlawful deportation or transfer or unlawful confinement;
> Taking of hostages.
> 
> Other serious violations of the laws and customs applicable in international armed conflict, within the established framework of international law, namely, any of the following acts:
> Intentionally directing attacks against the civilian population as such or against individual civilians not taking direct part in hostilities;
> Intentionally directing attacks against civilian objects, that is, objects which are not military objectives;
> Intentionally directing attacks against personnel, installations, material, units or vehicles involved in a humanitarian assistance or peacekeeping mission in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations, as long as they are entitled to the protection given to civilians or civilian objects under the international law of armed conflict;
> Intentionally launching an attack in the knowledge that such attack will cause incidental loss of life or injury to civilians or damage to civilian objects or widespread, long-term and severe damage to the natural environment which would be clearly excessive in relation to the concrete and direct overall military advantage anticipated;
> Attacking or bombarding, by whatever means, towns, villages, dwellings or buildings which are undefended and which are not military objectives;
> Killing or wounding a combatant who, having laid down his arms or having no longer means of defence, has surrendered at discretion;
> Making improper use of a flag of truce, of the flag or of the military insignia and uniform of the enemy or of the United Nations, as well as of the distinctive emblems of the Geneva Conventions, resulting in death or serious personal injury;
> The transfer, directly or indirectly, by the Occupying Power of parts of its own civilian population into the territory it occupies, or the deportation or transfer of all or parts of the population of the occupied territory within or outside this territory;
> Intentionally directing attacks against buildings dedicated to religion, education, art, science or charitable purposes, historic monuments, hospitals and places where the sick and wounded are collected, provided they are not military objectives;
> Subjecting persons who are in the power of an adverse party to physical mutilation or to medical or scientific experiments of any kind which are neither justified by the medical, dental or hospital treatment of the person concerned nor carried out in his or her interest, and which cause death to or seriously endanger the health of such person or persons;
> Killing or wounding treacherously individuals belonging to the hostile nation or army;
> Declaring that no quarter will be given;
> Destroying or seizing the enemy's property unless such destruction or seizure be imperatively demanded by the necessities of war;
> Declaring abolished, suspended or inadmissible in a court of law the rights and actions of the nationals of the hostile party;
> Compelling the nationals of the hostile party to take part in the operations of war directed against their own country, even if they were in the belligerent's service before the commencement of the war;
> Pillaging a town or place, even when taken by assault;
> Employing poison or poisoned weapons;
> Employing asphyxiating, poisonous or other gases, and all analogous liquids, materials or devices;
> Employing bullets which expand or flatten easily in the human body, such as bullets with a hard envelope which does not entirely cover the core or is pierced with incisions;
> Employing weapons, projectiles and material and methods of warfare which are of a nature to cause superfluous injury or unnecessary suffering or which are inherently indiscriminate in violation of the international law of armed conflict, provided that such weapons, projectiles and material and methods of warfare are the subject of a comprehensive prohibition and are included in an annex to this Statute, by an amendment in accordance with the relevant provisions set forth in articles 121 and 123;
> Committing outrages upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment;
> Committing rape, sexual slavery, enforced prostitution, forced pregnancy, as defined in article 7, paragraph 2 (f), enforced sterilization, or any other form of sexual violence also constituting a grave breach of the Geneva Conventions;
> Utilizing the presence of a civilian or other protected person to render certain points, areas or military forces immune from military operations;
> Intentionally directing attacks against buildings, material, medical units and transport, and personnel using the distinctive emblems of the Geneva Conventions in conformity with international law;
> Intentionally using starvation of civilians as a method of warfare by depriving them of objects indispensable to their survival, including wilfully impeding relief supplies as provided for under the Geneva Conventions;
> Conscripting or enlisting children under the age of fifteen years into the national armed forces or using them to participate actively in hostilities.
> 
> In the case of an armed conflict not of an international character, serious violations of article 3 common to the four Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949, namely, any of the following acts committed against persons taking no active part in the hostilities, including members of armed forces who have laid down their arms and those placed hors de combat by sickness, wounds, detention or any other cause:
> Violence to life and person, in particular murder of all kinds, mutilation, cruel treatment and torture;
> Committing outrages upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment;
> Taking of hostages;
> The passing of sentences and the carrying out of executions without previous judgement pronounced by a regularly constituted court, affording all judicial guarantees which are generally recognized as indispensable.
> 
> Paragraph 2 (c) applies to armed conflicts not of an international character and thus does not apply to situations of internal disturbances and tensions, such as riots, isolated and sporadic acts of violence or other acts of a similar nature.
> Other serious violations of the laws and customs applicable in armed conflicts not of an international character, within the established framework of international law, namely, any of the following acts:
> Intentionally directing attacks against the civilian population as such or against individual civilians not taking direct part in hostilities;
> Intentionally directing attacks against buildings, material, medical units and transport, and personnel using the distinctive emblems of the Geneva Conventions in conformity with international law;
> Intentionally directing attacks against personnel, installations, material, units or vehicles involved in a humanitarian assistance or peacekeeping mission in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations, as long as they are entitled to the protection given to civilians or civilian objects under the international law of armed conflict;
> Intentionally directing attacks against buildings dedicated to religion, education, art, science or charitable purposes, historic monuments, hospitals and places where the sick and wounded are collected, provided they are not military objectives;
> Pillaging a town or place, even when taken by assault;
> Committing rape, sexual slavery, enforced prostitution, forced pregnancy, as defined in article 7, paragraph 2 (f), enforced sterilization, and any other form of sexual violence also constituting a serious violation of article 3 common to the four Geneva Conventions;
> Conscripting or enlisting children under the age of fifteen years into armed forces or groups or using them to participate actively in hostilities;
> Ordering the displacement of the civilian population for reasons related to the conflict, unless the security of the civilians involved or imperative military reasons so demand;
> Killing or wounding treacherously a combatant adversary;
> Declaring that no quarter will be given;
> Subjecting persons who are in the power of another party to the conflict to physical mutilation or to medical or scientific experiments of any kind which are neither justified by the medical, dental or hospital treatment of the person concerned nor carried out in his or her interest, and which cause death to or seriously endanger the health of such person or persons;
> Destroying or seizing the property of an adversary unless such destruction or seizure be imperatively demanded by the necessities of the conflict;
> 
> Paragraph 2 (e) applies to armed conflicts not of an international character and thus does not apply to situations of internal disturbances and tensions, such as riots, isolated and sporadic acts of violence or other acts of a similar nature. It applies to armed conflicts that take place in the territory of a State when there is protracted armed conflict between governmental authorities and organized armed groups or between such groups.
> 
> Nothing in paragraph 2 (c) and (e) shall affect the responsibility of a Government to maintain or re-establish law and order in the State or to defend the unity and territorial integrity of the State, by all legitimate means.
> 
> It's a long list but pictures and photographing are not mentioned (okay, I'm verging on sarcasm).  Note the few highlights I added.  Does putting dejected Ivan on Twitter make it a "grave" or "serious" breach of the conventions or does it constitute an "outrage upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment"?  One (especially an old fart like myself) could be of the opinion that any use of social media is a degrading practice (for the practitioner as well as the subject of comment/image).
> 
> In one commentary about the subject I found this interesting:
> 
> The Third Geneva Convention of 1949 (the Prisoners of War Convention) contains no provisions specifically regulating the circumstances in which prisoners of war can be photographed. The only article which touches on the subject is Article 13, paragraph 2, which states that:
> 
> "... _prisoners of war must at all times be protected, particularly against acts of violence or intimidation and against insults and public curiosity._"


Damn, someone who cites not only a narrow article of law, but some of its wider context as well, unbelievable!

Almost like laws don't operate in a vacuum or something. ;P

Props, Blackadder


----------



## Remius

Altair said:


> Okay, I'm going to talk about the video I posted.
> 
> The soldier was already talking to his mother via video messaging. Disclosure done.
> 
> The disclosure was filmed and posted to the internet.
> 
> Public curiosity, no?


Who filmed and posted it?  Are they subject to the Geneva Convention? 

Public curiosity has to be taken in the context of “humiliation and mistreatment”.  

He wasn’t put in a cage for onlookers to gawk at.  

Context is key when it comes to this stuff.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Public curiosity, no?



Sure.  Or, "here's evidence of us allowing soldier to contact relatives".


----------



## Altair

Remius said:


> Who filmed and posted it?  Are they subject to the Geneva Convention?
> 
> Public curiosity has to be taken in the context of “humiliation and mistreatment”.
> 
> He wasn’t put in a cage for onlookers to gawk at.
> 
> Context is key when it comes to this stuff.


Okay, so do you disagree with the red cross then?





__





						Treaties, States parties, and Commentaries - Geneva Convention (III) on Prisoners of War, 1949 - 13 - Article 13 : Humane treatment of prisoners - Commentary of 2020
					





					ihl-databases.icrc.org
				




Being exposed to ‘public curiosity’ as a prisoner of war, even when such exposure is not accompanied by insulting remarks or actions, is humiliating in itself and therefore specifically prohibited. For the purposes of the present article, ‘public’ should be interpreted as referring to anyone who is not directly involved in handling the prisoners of war, including other members of the Detaining Power. Exposure to public curiosity can take many forms. The prohibition undoubtedly covers parading prisoners in public.[112] Moreover, prisoners must not be exposed to humiliation when they leave their camp for work, are transferred to another facility or are being repatriated.[113] In modern conflicts, the prohibition also covers, subject to the considerations discussed below, the disclosure of photographic and video images, recordings of interrogations or private conversations or personal correspondence or any other private data, irrespective of which public communication channel is used, including the internet. Although this is seemingly different from being marched through a hostile crowd, such disclosure could still be humiliating and jeopardize the safety of the prisoners’ families and of the prisoners themselves once they are released.[114]


----------



## Altair

Brad Sallows said:


> Sure.  Or, "here's evidence of us allowing soldier to contact relatives".


Right, public curiosity.

Otherwise it could have been given to the RC, or Ukrainian government which could then choose to give it to the Ruskies.


----------



## Remius

Altair said:


> Okay, so do you disagree with the red cross then?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Treaties, States parties, and Commentaries - Geneva Convention (III) on Prisoners of War, 1949 - 13 - Article 13 : Humane treatment of prisoners - Commentary of 2020
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ihl-databases.icrc.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Being exposed to ‘public curiosity’ as a prisoner of war, even when such exposure is not accompanied by insulting remarks or actions, is humiliating in itself and therefore specifically prohibited. For the purposes of the present article, ‘public’ should be interpreted as referring to anyone who is not directly involved in handling the prisoners of war, including other members of the Detaining Power. Exposure to public curiosity can take many forms. The prohibition undoubtedly covers parading prisoners in public.[112] Moreover, prisoners must not be exposed to humiliation when they leave their camp for work, are transferred to another facility or are being repatriated.[113] In modern conflicts, the prohibition also covers, subject to the considerations discussed below, the disclosure of photographic and video images, recordings of interrogations or private conversations or personal correspondence or any other private data, irrespective of which public communication channel is used, including the internet. Although this is seemingly different from being marched through a hostile crowd, such disclosure could still be humiliating and jeopardize the safety of the prisoners’ families and of the prisoners themselves once they are released.[114]


Again.  Context.  Who is filming it?  If they are not subject to the convention then no crime is committed.  

So tik tok, Twitter by Civies and independant media do not apply.


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499366007663697928
> Russia may be putting mines in international waters around Ukraine


Worst than that.

Makes no sense for Russia to mine those waters they seek to transgress, they're Ukrainian mines.
But Ukraine closed those waters to merchant shipping, so why did the Helt run in the danger zone?

Because Russia forced them, while using them as human/ship shield. *This* is a severe violation of LOAC. As we say in Quebec, no point in sodomizing flies, here, when THAT shit is unfolding before our eyes.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498963043413331974


----------



## Altair

Remius said:


> Again.  Context.  Who is filming it?  If they are not subject to the convention then no crime is committed.
> 
> So tik tok, Twitter by Civies and independant media do not apply.


I guess it matters as to who the detaining force is.


Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499060828817043474


at 0:22 and at 1:02 someone with a yellow arm band of what I can think is an identifier of the Ukrainian militias operating (please correct me if I'm wrong here) shows up to talk to the soldier.

So I think it's not a mob of farmers who detained this soldier, but Ukrainians operating under the Territorial defense force. So if these soldiers of the detaining force are allowing this to happen, is it or is it not for public curiosity, taking into consideration proof of life was already being given to this soldiers mother?


----------



## Blackadder1916

Altair said:


> Would TikTok, twitter, telegram and other social media be considered public curiosity?
> 
> I would say yes.



You're like a dog with a bone.  What's the point?  I responded to one of your previous posts specifically because you used the term "war crime".  Does it make a difference to label a practice that could be contrary to an article of the Third Convention as a war crime?  Is it your position that "every" deviation from the convention is a "war crime" and should be prosecuted as such?  The ICC would certainly be kept busy if so.


----------



## Remius

Altair said:


> I guess it matter as to who the detaining force is.
> 
> at 1:02 someone with a yellow arm band of what I can think is an identifier of the Ukrainian militias operating (please correct me if I'm wrong here) shows up to talk to the soldier.
> 
> So I think it's not a mob of farmers who detained this soldier, but Ukrainians operating under the Territorial defense force. So if these soldiers of the detaining force are allowing this to happen, is it or is it not for public curiosity, taking into consideration proof of life was already being given to this soldiers mother?


You are making a lot of assumptions and I can make a bunch of assumptions as well.   Is he actually a PW at this point?  Who is filming?  Who is releasing the film for public curiosity?  Can the militia guys actually stop a citizen in their own country from filming something?  

Context.  You don’t have it, I don’t have it.  Just know that unless the people filming this or posting it are subject to the Geneva convention ( ie only nations are bound by it) then it isn’t a war crime.  And to be honest I doubt anyone is going to waste their time with this video in establishing that.


----------



## Altair

Blackadder1916 said:


> You're like a dog with a bone.


Thank you.


Blackadder1916 said:


> What's the point?  I responded to one of your previous posts specifically because you used the term "war crime".  Does it make a difference to label a practice that could be contrary to an article of the Third Convention as a war crime?  Is it your position that "every" deviation from the convention is a "war crime" and should be prosecuted as such?  The ICC would certainly be kept busy if so.


No, it is not. Its more to say Ukrainian authorities should be discouraging doing this. Zelensky is rather popular, he should say to cut it out.


----------



## Altair

Remius said:


> You are making a lot of assumptions and I can make a bunch of assumptions as well.   Is he actually a PW at this point?  Who is filming?  Who is releasing the film for public curiosity?  Can the militia guys actually stop a citizen in their own country from filming something?
> 
> Context.  You don’t have it, I don’t have it.  Just know that unless the people filming this or posting it are subject to the Geneva convention ( ie only nations are bound by it) then it isn’t a war crime.  And to be honest I doubt anyone is going to waste their time with this video in establishing that.


I don't expect anyone to. 

But I also think Ukrainians should not be doing it.


----------



## Spencer100

Looks like they have new items up for ebay.  LOL


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499379869519683587
In the end the farmer who doesn't get something with have some explaining to do at the pub.


----------



## Blackadder1916

Altair said:


> Thank you.
> 
> No, it is not. Its more to say Ukrainian authorities should be discouraging doing this. Zelensky is rather popular, he should say to cut it out.



Then why didn't you say that and a couple of pages of blather could have been avoided.  Bad manners do not (necessarily) a crime make.


----------



## Remius

Altair said:


> Thank you.
> 
> No, it is not. Its more to say Ukrainian authorities should be discouraging doing this. Zelensky is rather popular, he should say to cut it out.


The Ukrainian authorities are telling their people to fight to the last.  I doubt they are overly concerned about a tik tok video showing a Russian soldier being treated humanely.  They have bigger fish to fry.  Priorities.


----------



## armrdsoul77

Russian Amphibious Assault Ship Armada Seen Off Crimea As Fears Of Odessa Beach Landing Grow


----------



## Altair

Blackadder1916 said:


> Then why didn't you say that and a couple of pages of blather could have been avoided.  Bad manners do not (necessarily) a crime make.











						Ukraine - Superthread
					

1 Million Refugees https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/world/europe/one-week-into-the-war-and-with-cities-under-siege-a-humanitarian-crisis-looms.html




					army.ca
				





#5,790









						Ukraine - Superthread
					

Digital age.  The RC specifically mentions the internet age.  No one gave a shit when the North Vietnamese did it to shot down US personnel in Vietnam - so my sympathy is a little light (read non existent) for the Russian forces.  I think a lot of people gave a shit. Ironically, Americans most...




					army.ca
				




#5,798


----------



## The Bread Guy

Just out a few minutes ago via CAN DefMin's Twitter:  M72's and hand grenades headed over plus $1M (according to UKR media) for buying hi-quality sat imagery ...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499412965942087680


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499419869409861640


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499390932457857030


----------



## tomydoom

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499419869409861640


Nice to see Vlad's plan to limit western influence working so well.  No possible way to anticipate that invading a neighbour would cause many of the others to rush into the arms of the west, post haste.  Can't imagine why they would do that! (sarcasm, in case that was unclear)


----------



## Furniture

I think Ukrainians have decided that potential minor violations of international law, and their consequences, are far outweighed by the impact of showing themselves as being compassionate with captured Russian troops. 

In the video Altair posted, take note of the woman in the purple coat as she wipes away tears watching a Russian "boy" say goodbye to his mommy. That sort of humanity is what keeps the Western public on side with their governments targeting Russia, and supplying Ukraine with weapons, and other aid.


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499377671855292423
Interesting thread on why the Russian VDV has been having such a hard time.

Highlights below


Since WWII there were only three cases when Russian paratroopers were actually dropped on the enemy from the air: Hungary 1956 Czechoslovakia 1968 Ukraine 2022
Paratroopers aren't that strong. The firepower of an "elite" paratrooper regiment is way weaker than that of regular, "non-elite" infantry regiment. They can't defeat an army. But they aren't supposed to fight against an army. They are supposed to suppress mutinies and rebellions
When Russia decided to suppress the insurrection in Kazakstan last year, it sent there its glorified riot police - the paratroopers.
Kremlin sees Ukraine as a rebel province. The very existence of this country is mutiny. And if you need to suppress a riot, you send the riot police. So Putin sent there paratroopers and they were completely routed. Because they didn't expect organised resistance
Russian paratroopers were used as paratroopers only during the suppression of "fascist revolt" in Hungary 1956 and in Czechoslovakia 1968. Why? Because they knew they're not gonna face another regular army there. So they can unleash their psyop without fearing any consequences
Paratroopers were supposed to take control of the main cities and logistical clusters, so the occupation of the country by the army would go smoothly. But Ukrainian army opened fire and they failed. And after that initial failure the entire plan was broken
Putin's Blitzkrieg failed because it wasn't a Blitzkrieg. Blitzkrieg is a war operation against an enemy who fights. But Russia launched a special operation expecting Ukrainians to surrender. That's why they sent forward their glorified riot police. Of course, they were beaten


It failed for two reasons. Firstly, after 2014 Ukrainians rebuilt their army and state for the imminent clash with Russia. Secondly, when Russia finally attacked, Ukrainians didn't fall for an empty psyop and didn't get scared. And if you don't fear, psyop doesn't work.
I am utterly convinced that paratroopers are going to go the way of the battleship.


----------



## Altair

Furniture said:


> I think Ukrainians have decided that potential minor violations of international law, and their consequences, are far outweighed by the impact of showing themselves as being compassionate with captured Russian troops.
> 
> In the video Altair posted, take note of the woman in the purple coat as she wipes away tears watching a Russian "boy" say goodbye to his mommy. That sort of humanity is what keeps the Western public on side with their governments targeting Russia, and supplying Ukraine with weapons, and other aid.


Still doesn't make it right.

Calculated maybe, but not right.


----------



## Spencer100

Good news we can get the Tos-1 reloader now too. You need the set!


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499349053620039681


----------



## Mills Bomb

It will be interesting to see what happens to that big column. It seems like there's not too much information about it yet or if / how badly it's been attached.

The images of ships off the beaches of Odessa looked like an easy target as well.

Are they waiting for the right time to strike or is the situation so dire they can't hit them right now? 

Any good sources on if Martial Law in Russia is confirmed tomorrow? Is it possible they're going to start mobilizing more of the country?

So many questions and so little information still.


----------



## Altair

Mills Bomb said:


> It will be interesting to see what happens to that big column. It seems like there's not too much information about it yet or if / how badly it's been attached.
> 
> The images of ships off the beaches of Odessa looked like an easy target as well.
> 
> Are they waiting for the right time to strike or is the situation so dire they can't hit them right now?
> 
> Any good sources on if Martial Law in Russia is confirmed tomorrow? Is it possible they're going to start mobilizing more of the country?
> 
> So many questions and so little information still.


Lots of Russians on twitter talking about fleeing the country as its expected to come into force tonight or tomorrow. 

But I suspect its more to quell internal dissent than it is to fight Ukraine. But it's telling that there is THAT much internal dissent that martial law needs to be applied.


----------



## MilEME09

Mills Bomb said:


> It will be interesting to see what happens to that big column. It seems like there's not too much information about it yet or if / how badly it's been attached.
> 
> The images of ships off the beaches of Odessa looked like an easy target as well.
> 
> Are they waiting for the right time to strike or is the situation so dire they can't hit them right now?
> 
> Any good sources on if Martial Law in Russia is confirmed tomorrow? Is it possible they're going to start mobilizing more of the country?
> 
> So many questions and so little information still.


It surprises me the Ukrainians aren't trying to hit those ships


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Just out a few minutes ago via CAN DefMin's Twitter:  M72's and hand grenades headed over plus $1M (according to UKR media) for buying hi-quality sat imagery ...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499412965942087680


We decided to wait 8 days into the conflict to see if the Ukrainians could hold out before we decided to strip the cupboard bare and send what stock we have.  I guess we can be called 'Johnny come lately' in this fight.


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499424666079096833
Rhyming.


----------



## ModlrMike

I'm not sure the modern Russian populace is going to be adequately frightened by the prospect of martial law.


----------



## dapaterson

Reads to me like NATO partners are making daily announcements so there is a steady stream of news announcing support.


----------



## Spencer100

This is interesting.


----------



## HiTechComms

Spencer100 said:


> This is interesting.


Fundamental misunderstanding by the west of non western ideologies. West suffers from a problematic of Projections. Its why Russia is only being sanctioned by the west and not so much by the rest of the world. IE: South America.

What west sees as as abject mistakes is probably Russian doctrine. Since the West will not likely ever go to war with Russia the doctrines will never be tested to see which is better.


----------



## YZT580

The Bread Guy said:


> Just out a few minutes ago via CAN DefMin's Twitter:  M72's and hand grenades headed over plus $1M (according to UKR media) for buying hi-quality sat imagery ...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499412965942087680


promising and delivering are two separate issues.  Are we able and working at delivering these promises ASAP?  If not it is just so much smoke.


----------



## FJAG

KevinB said:


> Proportionality...
> 
> @FJAG can give an actually informed opinion, but my thoughts would be that UKR would argue that their 'crime' is one of necessity to spare further lives.


I'll just throw a few points out here.

"War crimes" is a nebulous term. The Geneva Conventions and additional protocols deal in 'breaches' and 'grave breaches' of the convention - a very rough and imprecise analogy is 'misdemeanors' and 'felonies'. Video taping POWs and displaying such tapes falls far below what are considered a 'grave breach'.

Analyzing whether a particular event constitutes a 'breach' is akin to determining how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. If there's one thing that dealing with a wide variety of international military lawyers has taught me its that there are an equal number of ways of debating the finer points of what is and isn't a breach once you start getting down to the low end of the spectrum of obligations.

I'll leave it at this ... there is no black letter law that says you can't tape and display ... the closest you can get is the following two general provisions which protect against insults and curiosity and respect for the honour of a POW.



> COMMENTARY OF 2020
> ARTICLE 13 : HUMANE TREATMENT OF PRISONERS
> Text of the provision*
> (2) Likewise, prisoners of war must at all times be protected, particularly against acts of violence or intimidation and against insults and public curiosity.





> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Treaties, States parties, and Commentaries - Geneva Convention (III) on Prisoners of War, 1949 - 13 - Article 13 : Humane treatment of prisoners - Commentary of 2020
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ihl-databases.icrc.org





> Convention (III) relative to the Treatment of Prisoners of War. Geneva, 12 August 1949.
> COMMENTARY OF 2020
> ARTICLE 14 : RESPECT FOR THE PERSONS AND HONOUR OF PRISONERS
> Text of the provision*
> (1) Prisoners of war are entitled in all circumstances to respect for their persons and their honour.





> *1672  *The obligation to respect the moral integrity of prisoners of war is in tension with their exploitation for propaganda purposes by the Detaining Power. In international armed conflicts since the end of the Second World War, the ICRC has witnessed the use of prisoners of war for political rallies, where they were forced to chant political slogans against the Power on which they depended. Any such exploitation of prisoners of war for propaganda purposes, be it through political rallies or exposing them on television or social media, constitutes a violation of Article 14(1). The forced participation of prisoners of war in political demonstrations would also be forbidden under Article 13(2), which prohibits exposing prisoners of war to public curiosity.





> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Treaties, States parties, and Commentaries - Geneva Convention (III) on Prisoners of War, 1949 - 14 - Article 14 : Respect for the persons and honour of prisoners - Commentary of 2020
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ihl-databases.icrc.org



🍻


----------



## OceanBonfire

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499360423501565953





Blackadder1916 said:


> Maybe it would help if the "legal" definition of a "war crime" according to the Rome Statute of The International Criminal Court (it, after all, would be the organ used to prosecute such violations if a national court didn't deal with its own people).
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> United Nations Office on Genocide Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect
> 
> 
> Genocide Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect
> 
> 
> 
> www.un.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Definition​Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court​*Article 8
> War Crimes*
> 
> The Court shall have jurisdiction in respect of war crimes in particular when committed as part of a plan or policy or as part of a large-scale commission of such crimes.
> For the purpose of this Statute, ‘war crimes’ means:
> Grave breaches of the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949, namely, any of the following acts against persons or property protected under the provisions of the relevant Geneva Convention:
> Wilful killing
> Torture or inhuman treatment, including biological experiments;
> Wilfully causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or health;
> Extensive destruction and appropriation of property, not justified by military necessity and carried out unlawfully and wantonly;
> Compelling a prisoner of war or other protected person to serve in the forces of a hostile Power;
> Wilfully depriving a prisoner of war or other protected person of the rights of fair and regular trial;
> Unlawful deportation or transfer or unlawful confinement;
> Taking of hostages.
> 
> Other serious violations of the laws and customs applicable in international armed conflict, within the established framework of international law, namely, any of the following acts:
> Intentionally directing attacks against the civilian population as such or against individual civilians not taking direct part in hostilities;
> Intentionally directing attacks against civilian objects, that is, objects which are not military objectives;
> Intentionally directing attacks against personnel, installations, material, units or vehicles involved in a humanitarian assistance or peacekeeping mission in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations, as long as they are entitled to the protection given to civilians or civilian objects under the international law of armed conflict;
> Intentionally launching an attack in the knowledge that such attack will cause incidental loss of life or injury to civilians or damage to civilian objects or widespread, long-term and severe damage to the natural environment which would be clearly excessive in relation to the concrete and direct overall military advantage anticipated;
> Attacking or bombarding, by whatever means, towns, villages, dwellings or buildings which are undefended and which are not military objectives;
> Killing or wounding a combatant who, having laid down his arms or having no longer means of defence, has surrendered at discretion;
> Making improper use of a flag of truce, of the flag or of the military insignia and uniform of the enemy or of the United Nations, as well as of the distinctive emblems of the Geneva Conventions, resulting in death or serious personal injury;
> The transfer, directly or indirectly, by the Occupying Power of parts of its own civilian population into the territory it occupies, or the deportation or transfer of all or parts of the population of the occupied territory within or outside this territory;
> Intentionally directing attacks against buildings dedicated to religion, education, art, science or charitable purposes, historic monuments, hospitals and places where the sick and wounded are collected, provided they are not military objectives;
> Subjecting persons who are in the power of an adverse party to physical mutilation or to medical or scientific experiments of any kind which are neither justified by the medical, dental or hospital treatment of the person concerned nor carried out in his or her interest, and which cause death to or seriously endanger the health of such person or persons;
> Killing or wounding treacherously individuals belonging to the hostile nation or army;
> Declaring that no quarter will be given;
> Destroying or seizing the enemy's property unless such destruction or seizure be imperatively demanded by the necessities of war;
> Declaring abolished, suspended or inadmissible in a court of law the rights and actions of the nationals of the hostile party;
> Compelling the nationals of the hostile party to take part in the operations of war directed against their own country, even if they were in the belligerent's service before the commencement of the war;
> Pillaging a town or place, even when taken by assault;
> Employing poison or poisoned weapons;
> Employing asphyxiating, poisonous or other gases, and all analogous liquids, materials or devices;
> Employing bullets which expand or flatten easily in the human body, such as bullets with a hard envelope which does not entirely cover the core or is pierced with incisions;
> Employing weapons, projectiles and material and methods of warfare which are of a nature to cause superfluous injury or unnecessary suffering or which are inherently indiscriminate in violation of the international law of armed conflict, provided that such weapons, projectiles and material and methods of warfare are the subject of a comprehensive prohibition and are included in an annex to this Statute, by an amendment in accordance with the relevant provisions set forth in articles 121 and 123;
> Committing outrages upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment;
> Committing rape, sexual slavery, enforced prostitution, forced pregnancy, as defined in article 7, paragraph 2 (f), enforced sterilization, or any other form of sexual violence also constituting a grave breach of the Geneva Conventions;
> Utilizing the presence of a civilian or other protected person to render certain points, areas or military forces immune from military operations;
> Intentionally directing attacks against buildings, material, medical units and transport, and personnel using the distinctive emblems of the Geneva Conventions in conformity with international law;
> Intentionally using starvation of civilians as a method of warfare by depriving them of objects indispensable to their survival, including wilfully impeding relief supplies as provided for under the Geneva Conventions;
> Conscripting or enlisting children under the age of fifteen years into the national armed forces or using them to participate actively in hostilities.
> 
> In the case of an armed conflict not of an international character, serious violations of article 3 common to the four Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949, namely, any of the following acts committed against persons taking no active part in the hostilities, including members of armed forces who have laid down their arms and those placed hors de combat by sickness, wounds, detention or any other cause:
> Violence to life and person, in particular murder of all kinds, mutilation, cruel treatment and torture;
> Committing outrages upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment;
> Taking of hostages;
> The passing of sentences and the carrying out of executions without previous judgement pronounced by a regularly constituted court, affording all judicial guarantees which are generally recognized as indispensable.
> 
> Paragraph 2 (c) applies to armed conflicts not of an international character and thus does not apply to situations of internal disturbances and tensions, such as riots, isolated and sporadic acts of violence or other acts of a similar nature.
> Other serious violations of the laws and customs applicable in armed conflicts not of an international character, within the established framework of international law, namely, any of the following acts:
> Intentionally directing attacks against the civilian population as such or against individual civilians not taking direct part in hostilities;
> Intentionally directing attacks against buildings, material, medical units and transport, and personnel using the distinctive emblems of the Geneva Conventions in conformity with international law;
> Intentionally directing attacks against personnel, installations, material, units or vehicles involved in a humanitarian assistance or peacekeeping mission in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations, as long as they are entitled to the protection given to civilians or civilian objects under the international law of armed conflict;
> Intentionally directing attacks against buildings dedicated to religion, education, art, science or charitable purposes, historic monuments, hospitals and places where the sick and wounded are collected, provided they are not military objectives;
> Pillaging a town or place, even when taken by assault;
> Committing rape, sexual slavery, enforced prostitution, forced pregnancy, as defined in article 7, paragraph 2 (f), enforced sterilization, and any other form of sexual violence also constituting a serious violation of article 3 common to the four Geneva Conventions;
> Conscripting or enlisting children under the age of fifteen years into armed forces or groups or using them to participate actively in hostilities;
> Ordering the displacement of the civilian population for reasons related to the conflict, unless the security of the civilians involved or imperative military reasons so demand;
> Killing or wounding treacherously a combatant adversary;
> Declaring that no quarter will be given;
> Subjecting persons who are in the power of another party to the conflict to physical mutilation or to medical or scientific experiments of any kind which are neither justified by the medical, dental or hospital treatment of the person concerned nor carried out in his or her interest, and which cause death to or seriously endanger the health of such person or persons;
> Destroying or seizing the property of an adversary unless such destruction or seizure be imperatively demanded by the necessities of the conflict;
> 
> Paragraph 2 (e) applies to armed conflicts not of an international character and thus does not apply to situations of internal disturbances and tensions, such as riots, isolated and sporadic acts of violence or other acts of a similar nature. It applies to armed conflicts that take place in the territory of a State when there is protracted armed conflict between governmental authorities and organized armed groups or between such groups.
> 
> Nothing in paragraph 2 (c) and (e) shall affect the responsibility of a Government to maintain or re-establish law and order in the State or to defend the unity and territorial integrity of the State, by all legitimate means.
> 
> It's a long list but pictures and photographing are not mentioned (okay, I'm verging on sarcasm).  Note the few highlights I added.  Does putting dejected Ivan on Twitter make it a "grave" or "serious" breach of the conventions or does it constitute an "outrage upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment"?  One (especially an old fart like myself) could be of the opinion that any use of social media is a degrading practice (for the practitioner as well as the subject of comment/image).
> 
> In one commentary about the subject I found this interesting:
> 
> The Third Geneva Convention of 1949 (the Prisoners of War Convention) contains no provisions specifically regulating the circumstances in which prisoners of war can be photographed. The only article which touches on the subject is Article 13, paragraph 2, which states that:
> 
> "... _prisoners of war must at all times be protected, particularly against acts of violence or intimidation and against insults and public curiosity._"



ICC team is en route to Ukraine:









						ICC prosecutor: Team leaves to investigate war crimes in Ukraine
					

Investigators from the International Criminal Court set off on Thursday to start looking into possible war crimes in Ukraine, the tribunal's top prosecutor said in an interview.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## FJAG

@OceanBonfire 

The question one needs to ask though is whether or not taping a soldier being allowed to call his mother to tell her that he is alright and safe and being treated well constitutes "an outrages upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment."

Many, myself included, would not consider it an outrage at all. Compare that to North Korean and North Vietnamese public treatment of their POWs and you will see a clear difference.

🍻


----------



## Altair

FJAG said:


> @OceanBonfire
> 
> The question one needs to ask though is whether or not taping a soldier being allowed to call his mother to tell her that he is alright and safe and being treated well constitutes "an outrages upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment."
> 
> Many, myself included, would not consider it an outrage at all. Compare that to North Korean and North Vietnamese public treatment of their POWs and you will see a clear difference.
> 
> 🍻


I guess the Red Cross is out to lunch then?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Speaking of war crimes:

(Obviously Trust, but verify)









						Russians Busted Using Ambulance To Transport Munitions
					

Unconfirmed video shows a captured Russian ambulance vehicle being used to haul weapons and ammunition, which if true, would be a serious violation of the international laws of war which state that the use of ambulances or other medical transport equipment bearing medical insignia may not be...




					funker530.com
				




If true, add it to the tally.....


----------



## Furniture

HiTechComms said:


> *Fundamental misunderstanding by the west of non western ideologies. West suffers from a problematic of Projections. Its why Russia is only being sanctioned by the west and not so much by the rest of the world. IE: South America.*
> 
> What west sees as as abject mistakes is probably Russian doctrine. Since the West will not likely ever go to war with Russia the doctrines will never be tested to see which is better.



Yes, just projection... It has nothing to do with Russia being a historic threat right on the borders of the majority of Western nations.

As much as Russia doesn't want NATO on it's doorstep, NATO doesn't want another Belarus on their doorstep intentionally manufacturing humanitarian crises on the border in an attempt to undermine government authority.


----------



## HiTechComms

Furniture said:


> Yes, just projection... It has nothing to do with Russia being a historic threat right on the borders of the majority of Western nations.
> 
> As much as Russia doesn't want NATO on it's doorstep, NATO doesn't want another Belarus on their doorstep intentionally manufacturing humanitarian crises on the border in an attempt to undermine government authority.


I was commenting on the Russian military doctrine. (To the YouTube video that was provided.)

Again this also applies to other doctrines. People generally in the west don't understand ideologies and ideologues that are not similar to Western standards. This is was my experience when I lived outside of Canada.

Oddly enough  I had more of a culture shock moving back to Canada then when I moved overseas. I always recommend to young people to live and work possibly in another country to have a better understanding of the world.

This is not a comment on the Ukrainian war. Just making a general statement.


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> Right, public curiosity.
> 
> Otherwise it could have been given to the RC, or Ukrainian government which could then choose to give it to the Ruskies.



I don't know if this addresses the legal question, but have you considered why we have public trials?

A major consideration is the protection of the prisoner.

Certainly the prisoner may feel humiliated in public, but it is harder to make them Disappear. 

A PW on capture is an exceptionally vulnerable person.  There are a lot of reasons why the captor, and the PWs own chain of command, would rather not have it known that they have PWs.

As a low ranking soldier the best protection is publicity.

This isn't 1864, before cameras, tv and smartphones where to be displayed publicly meant to be displayed before your enemies.  And nobody outside of the parade route and the execution ground knew what was going on.

As we are all demonstrating daily on this site - the free flow of information happens - despite censorship attempts.  Pictures will be taken and distributed.  And, in my opinion that is a good thing.

If a bit of humiliation is the worst thing that ever happens to you then you are living a charmed life.


----------



## Remius

Altair said:


> I guess the Red Cross is out to lunch then?


Is the RED cross the authority and rule maker?  Or are they offering their opinion and position?


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> I guess it matters as to who the detaining force is.
> 
> at 0:22 and at 1:02 someone with a yellow arm band of what I can think is an identifier of the Ukrainian militias operating (please correct me if I'm wrong here) shows up to talk to the soldier.
> 
> So I think it's not a mob of farmers who detained this soldier, but Ukrainians operating under the Territorial defense force. So if these soldiers of the detaining force are allowing this to happen, is it or is it not for public curiosity, taking into consideration proof of life was already being given to this soldiers mother?



Altair, 

In my opinion, you're starting to over egg the pudding.


----------



## lenaitch

Altair said:


> I guess the Red Cross is out to lunch then?


What has the ICRC said on this, or a related, encounter?  I may have missed it.

A question was asked upthread and I don't recall an answer.  Assuming the dude in the yellow armband was a member of the UK militia, territorial forces or some other state-sanctioned body, is there any knowledge that he, or any other part of the state, has any authority to prevent a citizen from recording any image they please in a public space?

If somebody with an armband was doing the recording, there _might_ be a grain of an argument, but if it were me under charge, I would put that video up against terabytes of other images and throw myself at the mercy of the ICC for, hmmm, recording compassion.

I can't hope to match the legal eloquence of FJAG, but I really think the concept of 'de minimis' comes into play.  My wife is currently using a walker because of a slip-and-fall.  I've been parking illegally to get her close to the physio's door.  Yup, haul me away and lose the key.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499411027728994308


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> Just out a few minutes ago via CAN DefMin's Twitter:  M72's and hand grenades headed over plus $1M (according to UKR media) for buying hi-quality sat imagery ...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499412965942087680



Dear Minister Anand,

For future reference, could you encourage your colleagues to start building larger warehouses and fill them with useful kit.  They could come in handy for our own troops but, at very least, we would have something to offer our friends in their time of need.

"Attack" is not a dirty word.  Once you are attacked it is not enough to be able to absorb the beating.  It is necessary to stop the beating by attacking the attacker.

Just a thought.


----------



## Altair

Kirkhill said:


> Altair,
> 
> In my opinion, you're starting to over egg the pudding.


I...think i'm going to need to google that.

Is it safe for work?


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> Dear Minister Anand,
> 
> For future reference, could you encourage your colleagues to start building larger warehouses and fill them with useful kit.  They could come in handy for our own troops but, at very least, we would have something to offer our friends in their time of need.
> 
> "Attack" is not a dirty word.  Once you are attacked it is not enough to be able to absorb the beating.  It is necessary to stop the beating by attacking the attacker.
> 
> Just a thought.


Pretty soon the CAF is going to need to beg for kit from the UKR...


----------



## The Bread Guy

ModlrMike said:


> I'm not sure the modern Russian populace is going to be adequately frightened by the prospect of martial law.


They might be if they, say, see rationing or the equivalent to make sure the "boys fighting the Nazis" are properly provisioned.  Depends on the terms of the martial law - if it happens.


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> I...think i'm going to need to google that.
> 
> Is it safe for work?



Just an opportunity to improve English skills.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> Pretty soon the CAF is going to need to beg for kit from the UKR...



I understand they have got tanks and SPGs going cheap.  Maybe we could have arranged a swap.

How many T72s for a Carl G?


----------



## Altair

Kirkhill said:


> I don't know if this addresses the legal question, but have you considered why we have public trials?
> 
> A major consideration is the protection of the prisoner.
> 
> Certainly the prisoner may feel humiliated in public, but it is harder to make them Disappear.
> 
> A PW on capture is an exceptionally vulnerable person.  There are a lot of reasons why the captor, and the PWs own chain of command, would rather not have it known that they have PWs.
> 
> As a low ranking soldier the best protection is publicity.
> 
> This isn't 1864, before cameras, tv and smartphones where to be displayed publicly meant to be displayed before your enemies.  And nobody outside of the parade route and the execution ground knew what was going on.
> 
> As we are all demonstrating daily on this site - the free flow of information happens - despite censorship attempts.  Pictures will be taken and distributed.  And, in my opinion that is a good thing.
> 
> I a bit of humiliation is the worst thing that ever happens to you then you are living a charmed life.


I circle back to the red cross here because they do deal with POWs quite a bit.

Treaties, States parties, and Commentaries - Geneva Convention (III) on Prisoners of War, 1949 - 13 - Article 13 : Humane treatment of prisoners - Commentary of 2020
Being exposed to ‘public curiosity’ as a prisoner of war, even when such exposure is not accompanied by insulting remarks or actions, is humiliating in itself and therefore specifically prohibited. For the purposes of the present article, ‘public’ should be interpreted as referring to anyone who is not directly involved in handling the prisoners of war, including other members of the Detaining Power. Exposure to public curiosity can take many forms. The prohibition undoubtedly covers parading prisoners in public.[112] Moreover, prisoners must not be exposed to humiliation when they leave their camp for work, are transferred to another facility or are being repatriated.[113] In modern conflicts, the prohibition also covers, subject to the considerations discussed below, the disclosure of photographic and video images, recordings of interrogations or private conversations or personal correspondence or any other private data, irrespective of which public communication channel is used, including the internet. Although this is seemingly different from being marched through a hostile crowd, such disclosure could still be humiliating and jeopardize the safety of the prisoners’ families and of the prisoners themselves once they are released.

So simple question here, do you think the RC is wrong in its assesment?


----------



## Altair

lenaitch said:


> What has the ICRC said on this, or a related, encounter?  I may have missed it.
> 
> A question was asked upthread and I don't recall an answer.  Assuming the dude in the yellow armband was a member of the UK militia, territorial forces or some other state-sanctioned body, is there any knowledge that he, or any other part of the state, has any authority to prevent a citizen from recording any image they please in a public space?
> 
> If somebody with an armband was doing the recording, there _might_ be a grain of an argument, but if it were me under charge, I would put that video up against terabytes of other images and throw myself at the mercy of the ICC for, hmmm, recording compassion.
> 
> I can't hope to match the legal eloquence of FJAG, but I really think the concept of 'de minimis' comes into play.  My wife is currently using a walker because of a slip-and-fall.  I've been parking illegally to get her close to the physio's door.  Yup, haul me away and lose the key.


I dont think anybody is answering because there isnt much in the terms or precedent.

There is the law as written, and there is this happening. Seems harmless enough, but technically depending on who is doing the detaining, amd how this soldier is being presented (and i repeat, there are worse videos out there of Ukrainian military units not beind as kind as in this video) to those doing the videoing.

Usually when we see soldiers being filmed for propoganda purposes, its after being on the wrong end of a torture session, not being given food and drink and a call home, but the rules dont really allow for that distinction to be made.


----------



## Remius

Altair said:


> I circle back to the red cross here because they do deal with POWs quite a bit.
> 
> Treaties, States parties, and Commentaries - Geneva Convention (III) on Prisoners of War, 1949 - 13 - Article 13 : Humane treatment of prisoners - Commentary of 2020
> Being exposed to ‘public curiosity’ as a prisoner of war, even when such exposure is not accompanied by insulting remarks or actions, is humiliating in itself and therefore specifically prohibited. For the purposes of the present article, ‘public’ should be interpreted as referring to anyone who is not directly involved in handling the prisoners of war, including other members of the Detaining Power. Exposure to public curiosity can take many forms. The prohibition undoubtedly covers parading prisoners in public.[112] Moreover, prisoners must not be exposed to humiliation when they leave their camp for work, are transferred to another facility or are being repatriated.[113] In modern conflicts, the prohibition also covers, subject to the considerations discussed below, the disclosure of photographic and video images, recordings of interrogations or private conversations or personal correspondence or any other private data, irrespective of which public communication channel is used, including the internet. Although this is seemingly different from being marched through a hostile crowd, such disclosure could still be humiliating and jeopardize the safety of the prisoners’ families and of the prisoners themselves once they are released.
> 
> So simple question here, do you think the RC is wrong in its assesment?


Did it assess that video as a war crime?  If yes.  Then yes it is wrong.  And they are wasting their time if that is what they are investigating and should get to work on something else.


----------



## Altair

lenaitch said:


> What has the ICRC said on this, or a related, encounter?  I may have missed it.
> 
> A question was asked upthread and I don't recall an answer.  Assuming the dude in the yellow armband was a member of the UK militia, territorial forces or some other state-sanctioned body, is there any knowledge that he, or any other part of the state, has any authority to prevent a citizen from recording any image they please in a public space?
> 
> If somebody with an armband was doing the recording, there _might_ be a grain of an argument, but if it were me under charge, I would put that video up against terabytes of other images and throw myself at the mercy of the ICC for, hmmm, recording compassion.
> 
> I can't hope to match the legal eloquence of FJAG, but I really think the concept of 'de minimis' comes into play.  My wife is currently using a walker because of a slip-and-fall.  I've been parking illegally to get her close to the physio's door.  Yup, haul me away and lose the key.


I would give you a ticket. And tell you to get your wife a handicap pass.

Same way I wouldnt expect Ukraine to be hauled before some tribunal, I would just tell them to cut it out.


----------



## Remius

Altair said:


> Usually when we see soldiers being filmed for propoganda purposes, its after being on the wrong end of a torture session, not being given food and drink and a call home, but the rules dont really allow for that distinction to be made.


It’s called common sense in interpreting something and deciding what is in the best interest of pursuing something.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Altair said:


> You're not wrong, but the rules as written are still there and one cannot argue that they are outdated, one has to follow them.


The information Canadian soldiers are taught to give captors doesn't line up with the Geneva Convention.
Warcrimes?


----------



## Altair

Remius said:


> Did it assess that video as a war crime?  If yes.  Then yes it is wrong.  And they are wasting their time if that is what they are investigating and should get to work on something else.


Well, I am happy you are the abritrator of right and wrong Remius.


----------



## Remius

Altair said:


> Well, I am happy you are the abritrator of right and wrong Remius.


I’m glad you are not.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Now there's a good idea...

Transfer three A-10 aircraft squadrons to Ukraine now​By Everett Pyatt
 Mar 3, 06:33 AM

America should provide Ukraine with the A-10 Warthog, argues Everett Pyatt, a former assistant secretary of the U.S. Navy for shipbuilding and logistics. (Tech. Sgt. Gregory Brook/U.S. Air Force)

“Give us the tools, and we will finish the job,“ spoke U.K. Prime Minister Winston Churchill in February 1941. Following this powerful speech, U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt proposed and Congress approved the lend-lease program. This provided the U.K. equipment and access to United States production capacity. This action was essential to stopping the Nazi advances.

History often rhymes. Now, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is making the same plea for equipment necessary to stop the advance of the Russian autocratic Army. Now is the time for another lend-lease program supporting Ukraine.

Congress is acting in a supportive manner, but details are important. Russia must face a military defeat to enforce sanctions. The history of sanctions supports the conclusion that they do not change policy, but rather make conduct of business far more difficult while imposing distress on the economy as shown in Iraq, Iran, North Korea and others.

Sanctions must be accompanied by military success.

Zelenskyy has requested weapons and support in line with Churchill’s philosophy. Ukrainian soldiers have proved their courage and bravery. There is one more step that could be decisive: the transfer of three squadrons of A-10 aircraft to the Ukrainian Air Force.

This aircraft and its gun system were designed to counter an armored assault in Europe. They proved effective in Desert Storm’s target-rich environment, quite similar to the current advancing Russian force. They also became the infantry’s friend in close-air support missions.
The United States Air Force has deployment packages ready to go. The whole transfer to the Ukrainian Air Force could be completed in days after congressional authorization.









						Transfer three A-10 aircraft squadrons to Ukraine now
					

This aircraft and its gun system were designed to counter an armored assault in Europe. They proved effective in Desert Storm’s target-rich environment, quite similar to the current advancing Russian force.




					www.defensenews.com


----------



## Altair

Remius said:


> I’m glad you are not.


Oh this again.

I mean, the red cross, a pretty respected international organization has it laid out that their interpretation of this is that its in the wrong, but clearly its just "me".


----------



## Remius

Altair said:


> Oh this again.
> 
> I mean, the red cross, a pretty respected international organization has it laid out that their interpritation of this is that its in the wrong, but clearly its just "me".


They assessed that video as war crime?  Source?


----------



## Altair

Remius said:


> They assessed that video as war crime?  Source?







__





						Treaties, States parties, and Commentaries - Geneva Convention (III) on Prisoners of War, 1949 - 13 - Article 13 : Humane treatment of prisoners - Commentary of 2020
					





					ihl-databases.icrc.org
				




In modern conflicts, the prohibition also covers, subject to the considerations discussed below, the disclosure of photographic and video images, recordings of interrogations or private conversations or personal correspondence or any other private data, irrespective of which public communication channel is used, including the internet. Although this is seemingly different from being marched through a hostile crowd, such disclosure could still be humiliating and jeopardize the safety of the prisoners’ families and of the prisoners themselves once they are released.

This applies 100 percent to the video in question.

And if you want, i can flood this thread with countless other videos of Ukrainian troops filming Russia POWs, some at gunpoint. Would you rather that?


----------



## RangerRay

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499419869409861640


Way to go, Vlad!


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Altair said:


> Oh this again.
> but clearly its just "me".


Seems to happen a lot. ..


----------



## Altair

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> Seems to happen a lot. ..


Well, I have pretty good company with the Red Cross in this case.


----------



## Remius

Altair said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Treaties, States parties, and Commentaries - Geneva Convention (III) on Prisoners of War, 1949 - 13 - Article 13 : Humane treatment of prisoners - Commentary of 2020
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ihl-databases.icrc.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In modern conflicts, the prohibition also covers, subject to the considerations discussed below, the disclosure of photographic and video images, recordings of interrogations or private conversations or personal correspondence or any other private data, irrespective of which public communication channel is used, including the internet. Although this is seemingly different from being marched through a hostile crowd, such disclosure could still be humiliating and jeopardize the safety of the prisoners’ families and of the prisoners themselves once they are released.
> 
> This applies 100 percent to the video in question.
> 
> And if you want, i can flood this thread with countless other videos of Ukranian troops filming Russia POWs, some at gunpoing. Would you rather that?


That is not what I asked.  What source do you have that the Red Cross assessed that video as a war crime?  Because as pointed out you have no evidence that anyone that filmed or posted this is subject to the Geneva convention.   

You keep avoiding that part.  The Geneva Convention is binding on Nations not private citizens, independant media etc etc. 

I can give you my opinion on other stuff if you want. But in this case your argument for war crimes is weak without any information confirming a whole pile of stuff.


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Altair said:


> Well, I have pretty good company with the Red Cross in this case.


You think you do...m.


----------



## Altair

Top four reasons the snaking Russian military convoy hasn't moved in days
					

One main logistical challenge appears to be seasonal: early-spring mud that prevents movement of its poorly maintained trucks




					nationalpost.com
				






> Trent Telenko, a retired Pentagon staff specialist and military history blogger, has a detailed Twitter thread on what he says is the main reason the convoy is stalled.



When the news gets the information off of twitter, but twitter is not real news


----------



## Altair

Remius said:


> That is not what I asked.  What source do you have that the Red Cross assessed that video as a war crime?  Because as pointed out you have no evidence that anyone that filmed or posted this is subject to the Geneva convention.
> 
> You keep avoiding that part.  The Geneva Convention is binding on Nations not private citizens, independant media etc etc.
> 
> I can give you my opinion on other stuff if you want. But in this case your argument for war crimes is weak without any information confirming a whole pile of stuff.


Being exposed to ‘public curiosity’ as a prisoner of war, even when such exposure is not accompanied by insulting remarks or actions, is humiliating in itself and therefore specifically prohibited

Those filming are not, the soldiers exposing the soldier are.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Back to our regularly scheduled programming...

You know its bad when the CBC is calling your bluff:



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-ukraine-russia-putin-canadian-armed-forces-1.6370874
		




> Canada's troop commitment to eastern Europe is exposing weak points in its military​


​


----------



## Prairie canuck

daftandbarmy said:


> Now there's a good idea...
> 
> Transfer three A-10 aircraft squadrons to Ukraine now​By Everett Pyatt
> Mar 3, 06:33 AM
> 
> America should provide Ukraine with the A-10 Warthog, argues Everett Pyatt, a former assistant secretary of the U.S. Navy for shipbuilding and logistics. (Tech. Sgt. Gregory Brook/U.S. Air Force)
> 
> “Give us the tools, and we will finish the job,“ spoke U.K. Prime Minister Winston Churchill in February 1941. Following this powerful speech, U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt proposed and Congress approved the lend-lease program. This provided the U.K. equipment and access to United States production capacity. This action was essential to stopping the Nazi advances.
> 
> History often rhymes. Now, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is making the same plea for equipment necessary to stop the advance of the Russian autocratic Army. Now is the time for another lend-lease program supporting Ukraine.
> 
> Congress is acting in a supportive manner, but details are important. Russia must face a military defeat to enforce sanctions. The history of sanctions supports the conclusion that they do not change policy, but rather make conduct of business far more difficult while imposing distress on the economy as shown in Iraq, Iran, North Korea and others.
> 
> Sanctions must be accompanied by military success.
> 
> Zelenskyy has requested weapons and support in line with Churchill’s philosophy. Ukrainian soldiers have proved their courage and bravery. There is one more step that could be decisive: the transfer of three squadrons of A-10 aircraft to the Ukrainian Air Force.
> 
> This aircraft and its gun system were designed to counter an armored assault in Europe. They proved effective in Desert Storm’s target-rich environment, quite similar to the current advancing Russian force. They also became the infantry’s friend in close-air support missions.
> The United States Air Force has deployment packages ready to go. The whole transfer to the Ukrainian Air Force could be completed in days after congressional authorization.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Transfer three A-10 aircraft squadrons to Ukraine now
> 
> 
> This aircraft and its gun system were designed to counter an armored assault in Europe. They proved effective in Desert Storm’s target-rich environment, quite similar to the current advancing Russian force.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.defensenews.com


Pardon my curiosity but who will be flying them? Does the UAF have 20+ pilots sitting around waiting for a plane to pilot? The planes would be useless without the logistics to support them would they not?
Wouldn't 3 squadrons of Predator drones be more productive?


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499377671855292423
> Interesting thread on why the Russian VDV has been having such a hard time.
> 
> Highlights below
> 
> 
> Since WWII there were only three cases when Russian paratroopers were actually dropped on the enemy from the air: Hungary 1956 Czechoslovakia 1968 Ukraine 2022
> Paratroopers aren't that strong. The firepower of an "elite" paratrooper regiment is way weaker than that of regular, "non-elite" infantry regiment. They can't defeat an army. But they aren't supposed to fight against an army. They are supposed to suppress mutinies and rebellions
> When Russia decided to suppress the insurrection in Kazakstan last year, it sent there its glorified riot police - the paratroopers.
> Kremlin sees Ukraine as a rebel province. The very existence of this country is mutiny. And if you need to suppress a riot, you send the riot police. So Putin sent there paratroopers and they were completely routed. Because they didn't expect organised resistance
> Russian paratroopers were used as paratroopers only during the suppression of "fascist revolt" in Hungary 1956 and in Czechoslovakia 1968. Why? Because they knew they're not gonna face another regular army there. So they can unleash their psyop without fearing any consequences
> Paratroopers were supposed to take control of the main cities and logistical clusters, so the occupation of the country by the army would go smoothly. But Ukrainian army opened fire and they failed. And after that initial failure the entire plan was broken
> Putin's Blitzkrieg failed because it wasn't a Blitzkrieg. Blitzkrieg is a war operation against an enemy who fights. But Russia launched a special operation expecting Ukrainians to surrender. That's why they sent forward their glorified riot police. Of course, they were beaten
> 
> 
> It failed for two reasons. Firstly, after 2014 Ukrainians rebuilt their army and state for the imminent clash with Russia. Secondly, when Russia finally attacked, Ukrainians didn't fall for an empty psyop and didn't get scared. And if you don't fear, psyop doesn't work.
> I am utterly convinced that paratroopers are going to go the way of the battleship.



I am sure the LAV would do much better.



But we should always rely on tracks.

defence-blog.com/russian-tanks-stuck-in-the-mud-during-full-scale-military-attack-on-ukraine/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=russian-tanks-stuck-in-the-mud-during-full-scale-military-attack-on-ukraine

So paratroopers get shot out of the sky.  Wheeled and tracked armoured vehicles get bogged down.

What's a poor boy to do?





The only fly in the ointment is that the same beast responsible for shooting the Paratroopers out of the air with rifles and machine guns has been given new weapons for the arsenal.





The Beast responsible for blunting the Attacks?  Johnny on the spot?  The man in a minute?  The Minute Man?

The local Territorial Defence Units.

The regular army can't concentrate everywhere to defend everything.  On the other hand the Territorial Defence Units could identify the locations and strengths of the Paratroop and Helicopter assaults, make life miserable for attackers with small arms and man portable missiles, call in artillery and air strikes and hold.  Degrading the attacking force until the Regs showed up.  If necessary.

Likewise for the ground assaults.   Especially with the road-bound columns of mechanically unreliable vehicles that are demonstrating a tendency to, using a Canadianism, self-divest in unfortunate places.  A long string of targets that can't get off the range but are out of range of equally road-bound counter-attacking forces.

People with less training than a Class A militiaman are having a demostrable effect on the attackers when armed with the right kit.


I saw an article saying Vlad's troops were risk averse.  (Perhaps there are lessons learned behind that aversion).  One of the examples cited was an amphibious landing to take Mariupol.  They decided to land 70 km away from Mariupol in a safe area and then do a speed march to Mariupol to link up with the resident attacking force coming from the other direction.

Strangely enough the speed marching amphibious force was detained - bridges, culverts, mud, locals, and the occasional air strike.

It is apparently hard to execute operations when the environment works against you.


----------



## HiTechComms

Prairie canuck said:


> Pardon my curiosity but who will be flying them? Does the UAF have 20+ pilots sitting around waiting for a plane to pilot? The planes would be useless without the logistics to support them would they not?
> Wouldn't 3 squadrons of Predator drones be more productive?


Better off getting bunch of Frogfoots on ebay.


----------



## RaceAddict

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499411027728994308



They don't want _their _yacht seized too...





__





						Superyacht owned by Russian oligarch Igor Sechin seized by France
					





					www.msn.com
				




Sechin is the CEO of Rosneft.


----------



## HiTechComms

rmc_wannabe said:


> Back to our regularly scheduled programming...
> 
> You know its bad when the CBC is calling your bluff:
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-ukraine-russia-putin-canadian-armed-forces-1.6370874
> 
> 
> 
> ​


I sometimes think CBC is just good at gaslighting all sides..  Then again a broken clock is right twice a day.


----------



## Kirkhill

Spencer100 said:


> Good news we can get the Tos-1 reloader now too. You need the set!
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499349053620039681




So, you're young Ivan Jr, sitting the back of his truck, for the 7th day, drinking tea.  Stuck in a tailback and wondering "Are we there yet? Are we there?"  and "Where are the Fascists?"  "So annoying that they dress like us and drive the same vehicles.

"The vehicles keep breaking down.  The tires are crap.  We're running out of hydralic fluid and anti-freeze.  It's nice that Vodka is so useful.  And people keep hauling our kit off the road into the fields where they bog down.  Then they abandon them.  In range of the road and my truck.  Thankfully those Ukrainians don't know how to use our gear or else those tanks would all be well positioned to slow us down and eat up the trucks stuck behind"

"Maybe, the next time I head for the bogs, I should just keep on going..... right after I finish this mug of tea".


----------



## Altair

Kirkhill said:


> I am sure the LAV would do much better.
> 
> View attachment 69148
> 
> But we should always rely on tracks.
> 
> defence-blog.com/russian-tanks-stuck-in-the-mud-during-full-scale-military-attack-on-ukraine/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=russian-tanks-stuck-in-the-mud-during-full-scale-military-attack-on-ukraine
> 
> So paratroopers get shot out of the sky.  Wheeled and tracked armoured vehicles get bogged down.
> 
> What's a poor boy to do?
> 
> View attachment 69149
> 
> 
> 
> The only fly in the ointment is that the same beast responsible for shooting the Paratroopers out of the air with rifles and machine guns has been given new weapons for the arsenal.
> 
> View attachment 69150
> View attachment 69151
> 
> 
> The Beast responsible for blunting the Attacks?  Johnny on the spot?  The man in a minute?  The Minute Man?
> 
> The local Territorial Defence Units.
> 
> The regular army can't concentrate everywhere to defend everything.  On the other hand the Territorial Defence Units could identify the locations and strengths of the Paratroop and Helicopter assaults, make life miserable for attackers with small arms and man portable missiles, call in artillery and air strikes and hold.  Degrading the attacking force until the Regs showed up.  If necessary.
> 
> Likewise for the ground assaults.   Especially with the road-bound columns of mechanically unreliable vehicles that are demonstrating a tendency to, using a Canadianism, self-divest in unfortunate places.  A long string of targets that can't get off the range but are out of range of equally road-bound counter-attacking forces.
> 
> People with less training than a Class A militiaman are having a demostrable effect on the attackers when armed with the right kit.
> 
> 
> I saw an article saying Vlad's troops were risk averse.  (Perhaps there are lessons learned behind that aversion).  One of the examples cited was an amphibious landing to take Mariupol.  They decided to land 70 km away from Mariupol in a safe area and then do a speed march to Mariupol to link up with the resident attacking force coming from the other direction.
> 
> Strangely enough the speed marching amphibious force was detained - bridges, culverts, mud, locals, and the occasional air strike.
> 
> It is apparently hard to execute operations when the environment works against you.


Wait until the mud goes away?


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499439513600417806
Well thats a kick in the pants when a platoon of SPAA are taken out by some civis with molotov cocktails


----------



## Remius

Mills Bomb said:


> I suspect we may need to manage our expectations. I hope you're right, but we'll see what happens. There is still a very real chance this war doesn't end how we hope it does, but we also aren't fighting in it so we've really left it up to them. I will just have to disagree on this issue, I'm not going to cheer for Ukraine on the sidelines and then tell them how to fight in what is clearly an awful unjust one sided war. They need a miracle to fend off the Russians. Fingers crossed but I think it's hard to say how it ends.


I honestly think it will end with Russia getting Ukraine,  but it will also be getting a whole bunch of things it didn’t want.    I’m not sure it will be worth the cost to Russia by the time it ends or becomes the new normal.


----------



## KevinB

Putin still has a price on her head - and apparently her standing has grown as far as Ukraine eligible bachelorettes too

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499455141543559175


----------



## Kirkhill

Mills Bomb said:


> It will be interesting to see what happens to that big column. It seems like there's not too much information about it yet or if / how badly it's been attached.
> 
> The images of ships off the beaches of Odessa looked like an easy target as well.
> 
> Are they waiting for the right time to strike or is the situation so dire they can't hit them right now?
> 
> Any good sources on if Martial Law in Russia is confirmed tomorrow? Is it possible they're going to start mobilizing more of the country?
> 
> So many questions and so little information still.




The sense I am getting is there is an embarrassment of riches.  They can't strike the targets fast enough in a target rich environment.  The same mud that is keeping the Russian's road-bound is doing the same for the Ukrainians.  They're two army's stuck on opposite sides of a muddy field, yelling and shaking fists and can't get at each other.  They slog.   

Fortunately, because they are stuck and slogging the targets aren't getting out of the way very fast.  The Ukrainians can then look over the target rich environment, inventory it, prioritize it and then allocate their least cost solution from their own limited inventory.

Why worry about a column with half of its tires shredded, parked three abreast and unable to leave the road way?  It'll be there tomorrow.  And in all likelihood next week.


----------



## KevinB

Apparently Russian SOF marking Diplomatic areas (for targets?)  

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499386273177513986


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499471321947848711


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499457361819357189


----------



## Remius

KevinB said:


> Apparently Russian SOF marking Diplomatic areas (for targets?)
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499386273177513986


Could be to avoid hitting?


----------



## KevinB

Remius said:


> Could be to avoid hitting?


It's Russia...

 My bet is to punish countries for supporting the Ukraine - that is much more likely - also same markers had been previously found on UKR Military buildings...


----------



## Remius

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499471321947848711


A rearmed Germany was not likely in his “possible outcomes” book.


----------



## Remius

KevinB said:


> It's Russia...
> 
> My bet is to punish countries for supporting the Ukraine - that is much more likely - also same markers had been previously found on UKR Military buildings...


Would that not initiate an article 5 action?  He’s being very careful to avoid that while skirting the line.

Edit:  I suppose they could be marking non nato diplomatic buildings


----------



## FJAG

Kirkhill said:


> The Beast responsible for blunting the Attacks? Johnny on the spot? The man in a minute? The Minute Man?
> 
> The local Territorial Defence Units.


I'm probably going to regret saying this but , yes, the Ukrainian territorial defence battalions do seem to be having an impact. It's hard to tell because there is very little detail of who is doing what where, and how effective each is but they are definitely contributing to the effort. One mustn't forget that there is already a substantial number of active duty and tiered reservists involved in the Ukrainian Army who probably outnumber the Russian invaders.

There's an article I found interesting about the Ukrainian Army's reforms here.

All that said, I'm not about ready to run off and start up a system of volunteer territorial defence battalions for Canada. I just think that they might have their place and role in other parts of the world. For Canada what I see is needed as a first priority is a viable and credible Army Reserve (and RCAF and RCN reserve). Once we've established that we can start thinking about whether we need to and how we should go about expanding to a territorial force.

🍻


----------



## KevinB

Remius said:


> A rearmed Germany was not likely in his “possible outcomes” book.


A Neutered Russia wasn't either.




Remius said:


> Would that not initiate an article 5 action?  He’s being very careful to avoid that while skirting the line.


He's going to push the West back as far as he can - he doesn't believe that any of the Western Leaders will find a spine to say enough.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499405936322134018

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499454755214610444


----------



## Kirkhill

FJAG said:


> I'm probably going to regret saying this
> 
> 🍻



Nobody's going to hold it against you FJAG.....


----------



## KevinB

Ukraine: How might the war end? Five scenarios
					

What are some of the possible scenarios that politicians and military planners are examining?



					www.bbc.com
				





Kevin's bet #3 followed by #5


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> A Neutered Russia  Muscovy wasn't either.



FTFY.


----------



## Altair

Canadians urged to join Armed Forces rather than the 16,000 foreign fighters in Ukraine
					

The Deputy Prime Minister implied anyone fighting for Russia could be breaking international law — but there are also uncertainties on whether fighting for…




					nationalpost.com
				






> Appearing alongside Freeland, Defence Minister Anita Anand told reporters that while she understood the desire that many Canadians have to bear arms for Ukraine, “the legalities of the situation are indeterminant at this time.”
> 
> The federal government had previously avoided directly addressing the legality of Canadians fighting in Ukraine, or whether it supports those who want to do so. Federal ministers instead couched the issue as a matter of personal risk.
> 
> That stood in stark contrast to the United Kingdom and Australia, whose governments have noted the potential legal issues that their citizens could face if they fight in a conflict that does not involve their countries.
> 
> Anand instead encouraged people to enlist with the Canadian Armed Forces, which has launched a new recruitment drive as it struggles with a shortfall of thousands of active service members while facing growing demands at home and abroad.



What B.S.

Not a soul who wants to fight Russia should join the CAF.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Canadians urged to join Armed Forces rather than the 16,000 foreign fighters in Ukraine
> 
> 
> The Deputy Prime Minister implied anyone fighting for Russia could be breaking international law — but there are also uncertainties on whether fighting for…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nationalpost.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What B.S.
> 
> Not a soul who wants to fight Russia should join the CAF.


Give it a few weeks...


----------



## HiTechComms

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499471321947848711


But is he willing to stand up to Greta?


----------



## Kirkhill

FJAG said:


> All that said, I'm not about ready to run off and start up a system of volunteer territorial defence battalions for Canada. I just think that they might have their place and role in other parts of the world. For Canada what I see is needed as a first priority is a viable and credible Army Reserve (and RCAF and RCN reserve). Once we've established that we can start thinking about whether we need to and how we should go about expanding to a territorial force.
> 
> 🍻



Just consider them as a body of concerned citizens offering their services as a free OpFor to improve the proficiency of the Regular Army.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499479093783707649

@daftandbarmy


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Give it a few weeks...


Pffffffffffffffffffffffffft.

Join the CAF. Wait months for them to process your paperwork.

Then  spend months in basic.

Then spend months learning your trade.

Then, if army, hope to show up at one of the 3 CMBG that deploy and hope yours is next to go.

Then sit around and NOT fight Russia for the duration of your contract and get very familiar with the training grounds.

All for worst pay that you would get working in fast food.

Compare this to, 

Join Ukrainian legion.

Get gun.

Shoot russians.


----------



## KevinB

Look like Russia is opting to lose some more aircraft it cannot replace...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499481047435780103


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499457361819357189


At least in public, they said "no, thanks" a few days ago - but they've also felt the touch of the little green peacekeepers recently themselves, too.


Remius said:


> A rearmed Germany was not likely in his “possible outcomes” book.


Like all the social media memes have been saying, is everyone clear that they want Germany to arm up & take the fight to Russia (again?)


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Look like Russia is opting to lose some more aircraft it cannot replace...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499481047435780103


Shame there are no neutral countries nearby for defectors to land in without getting blown out of the sky.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499476554832912388


----------



## Kirkhill

HiTechComms said:


> Until a unilateral decision is made through OIC or under pretext of an Emergency.
> 
> Then again its fine in some nations according to Ethics, morals to throw gay people to be thrown off building or adulatory to be punished by stoning.
> 
> Both have a huge problematic scope. Culture, History and social norms seem to dictate everything.



And thus the need to be able to buy time to permit debate. 

Now where did I put that AR-15 I had lying around here somewhere?


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499445366411993093


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Pretty soon the CAF is going to need to beg for kit from the UKR...


I'm sure the fine print states: "If said equipment is not used, please return to sender".


----------



## Haggis

Kirkhill said:


> Now where did I put that AR-15 I had lying around here somewhere?


The one you will lose in a boating accident on April 30th?  Nope... haven't seen it.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Moving all the video/LOAC material to new thread here - feel free to resume that discussion there








						Filming/sharing videos of PW war crime? (split from Ukraine - Superthread)
					

So open question.   Seeing a lot of videos of Russian POWs. I posted one, which I think was more "okay" since it was civilians and it was just the soldier speaking to his mother, but you can easily find others with Ukrainian military being more aggressive with their questioning.   War crime or no?




					army.ca
				




Milnet.ca Staff


----------



## Kilted

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499445366411993093


Tom Clancy has a book that ends like that.


----------



## The Bread Guy

FJAG said:


> I'm probably going to regret saying this but , yes, the Ukrainian territorial defence battalions do seem to be having an impact. It's hard to tell because there is very little detail of who is doing what where, and how effective each is but they are definitely contributing to the effort ....


Don't forget that in 2014, when the UKR military wasn't where it's at today, oligarch-funded militias helped considerably to keep the wolves at bay (which is why there's been the history of a bit of a balancing act hating the worst behaviours of bits of those militias while integrating them into military/police units to "regularize" them a bit - which is the kernel of truth behind the RUS info-machine's "they're all Nazis" narrative).  Some background reading on that dance here, here and here.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

When you have to much AD equipment and don't know what to do with them 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499436295520727043


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499470435414642694
Sanctions already beginning to bite on this side of the atlantic.


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499480135820533777
Temporary local ceasefires in place.


----------



## Remius

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499470435414642694
> Sanctions already beginning to bite on this side of the atlantic.


I have a friend a friend who works for a multinational as their CFO.  They have employees in Russia and they are scrambling to find a way to pay them.


----------



## blacktriangle

MilEME09 said:


> Well thats a kick in the pants when a platoon of SPAA are taken out by some civis with molotov cocktails


If my memory serves (and assuming the Russians are even following their own doctrine) I believe that would be the equivalent of 2 x Pl, or 2/3rds of a Bty.


----------



## Altair

Remius said:


> I have a friend a friend who works for a multinational as their CFO.  They have employees in Russia and they are scrambling to find a way to pay them.


From North America?

Thats going to be next to impossible.

Even crypto sites are cracking down on russian transactions.

Its like the freedom convoy was a warm up for this.


----------



## Czech_pivo

I 


Altair said:


> Top four reasons the snaking Russian military convoy hasn't moved in days
> 
> 
> One main logistical challenge appears to be seasonal: early-spring mud that prevents movement of its poorly maintained trucks
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nationalpost.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> When the news gets the information off of twitter, but twitter is not real news


I love that part at the very end, some fellow saying that he's a bit of a tire expert and goes on to say that the tires look to be of Chinese make - actually names the make - says that he's had experience with them - and says that they are a cheap, crappy knock off of a solid Michelin version.

Buy cheap things, expect crappy results.


----------



## McG

Did any of these reach delivery?








						Ukraine’s Anti-Ship Missiles Might Arrive Too Late For A War With Russia
					

One of Ukraine's most important new weapons systems, a locally-made anti-ship missile, could be just a few months too late to make any difference in the fighting if Russia invades this winter.




					www.forbes.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499480135820533777
> Temporary local ceasefires in place.


Or, as Russia called them in Syria, "silence regimes" -- we'll see ...


----------



## Altair

The Bread Guy said:


> Or, as Russia called them in Syria, "silence regimes" -- we'll see ...


I hope these are not in place to allow the russians to move without taking fire.


----------



## KevinB

White House seeks new $10B Ukraine fund with half for Pentagon
					

The White House has formally asked Congress for $32.5 billion pandemic relief and  “critical assistance” to help Ukraine fight off a Russian invasion, with $4.8 billion for the Pentagon, as part of an updated supplemental spending request.




					www.defensenews.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499439513600417806
> Well thats a kick in the pants when a platoon of SPAA are taken out by some civis with molotov cocktails


I'd love to know in terms of Rubles and Kopecks the loss of all this equipment will cost the Russians.


----------



## Remius

Altair said:


> From North America?
> 
> Thats going to be next to impossible.
> 
> Even crypto sites are cracking down on russian transactions.
> 
> Its like the freedom convoy was a warm up for this.


I told him to try and send them iPhones.  They can likely trade them in for houses there right now.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> I'd love to know in terms of Rubles and Kopecks the loss of all this equipment will cost the Russians.


1x Vladimir Putin


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499471321947848711


Now only if a Canadian politician stood up and said the exact same thing.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Pffffffffffffffffffffffffft.
> 
> Join the CAF. Wait months for them to process your paperwork.
> 
> Then  spend months in basic.
> 
> Then spend months learning your trade.
> 
> Then, if army, hope to show up at one of the 3 CMBG that deploy and hope yours is next to go.
> 
> Then sit around and NOT fight Russia for the duration of your contract and get very familiar with the training grounds.
> 
> All for worst pay that you would get working in fast food.
> 
> Compare this to,
> 
> Join Ukrainian legion.
> 
> Get gun.
> 
> Shoot russians.


While I agree with the sentiment. 
   Untrained Westerners don’t add much.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> While I agree with the sentiment.
> Untrained Westerners don’t add much.


Untrained Ukrainians sure seem to be helping.

And there are other ways to help other than being a trigger puller.

Those with medical training can assist for example.

But I will say this. Anything someone can do for Ukraine in Ukraine now is infinitely better than what one can do by joining the Canadian armed forces.

I generally support the LPC but gods they sound brain dead every single time they open their mouths about anything regarding the CAF. And this particular statement takes the cake.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> While I agree with the sentiment.
> Untrained Westerners don’t add much.


 Yeah just ask ISIS . Some dudes are gonna find themselves cleaning toilets and cooking borscht in Lviv rather than doing 360 no scopes against Ivan.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499471321947848711


Germans right now that are hearing that people want them to build their army, cross poland and fight russia must be thinking this is a trap.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Altair said:


> Germans right now are hearing that people want them to build their army, cross poland and fight russia must be thinking this is a trap.


If Operation HONOUR taught us anything, consent is the key factor...


----------



## Altair

rmc_wannabe said:


> Yeah just ask ISIS . Some dudes are gonna find themselves cleaning toilets and cooking borscht in Lviv rather than doing 360 no scopes against Ivan.


I think this is going to be more like westerns joining the YPG to fight ISIL

(For those who can watch it, Heval was an amazing documentary)


----------



## Remius

KevinB said:


> While I agree with the sentiment.
> Untrained Westerners don’t add much.


They are probably liabilities tbh.


----------



## Altair

Remius said:


> They are probably liabilities tbh.


We have seen westerns fight in Syria against ISIL, who seem to be of the same quality as russian troops, with arguably higher moral.

We have seen untrained Ukrainians fight the Russian army.

Why are people thinking Westerns cannot be useful in Ukraine? Zelensky is even asking for people to join the Ukraine foreign legion.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Altair said:


> We have seen westerns fight in Syria against ISIL, who seem to be of the same quality as russian troops, with arguably higher moral.
> 
> We have seen untrained Ukrainians fight the Russian army.
> 
> Why are people thinking Westerns cannot be useful in Ukraine? Zelensky is even asking for people to join the Ukraine foreign legion.


Westerners with _ training _. Bob and Doug, the keyboard warriors from Edmonton, probably aren't who he meant...


----------



## Altair

rmc_wannabe said:


> Westerners with _ training _. Bob and Doug, the keyboard warriors from Edmonton, probably aren't who he meant...












						Canadians urged to join Armed Forces rather than the 16,000 foreign fighters in Ukraine
					

The Deputy Prime Minister implied anyone fighting for Russia could be breaking international law — but there are also uncertainties on whether fighting for…




					nationalpost.com
				







> In an emotional video posted to his Telegram channel, Zelensky referred to the “international legion” of 16,000 foreign volunteers he has sought to “join the defense of Ukraine, Europe and the world.” The country earlier this week temporarily lifted visa requirements for foreign volunteers who wish to enter the country and join the fight against Russian forces.











						Heval (2021) - IMDb
					

Heval: Directed by Adam R. Wood. With Michael Enright, Macer Gifford, Arie Kruglanski, Rojda Felat. Explore interviews with Michael, his supporters and his detractors with the actor's own helmet-cam video of deadly battles with and interrogations of ISIS fighters.




					m.imdb.com
				





> When a British-born actor abandons his Hollywood career to volunteer to fight ISIS





> Enright joined the Kurdish YPG to fight against ISIS in January 2015, after watching the execution of Jordanian pilot Muath al-Kasasbeh. He contacted the Kurdish People's Protection Units through a British SAS friend and was told to fly to the Iraqi Kurdish city of Sulaymaniyah via Istanbul. According to Enright, he passed physical training in the People's Protection Units and learned to assemble and dismantle a Kalashnikov rifle blindfolded in order to be able to use it at night. Enright was given an AK-47, and fought ISIS on the front line



Just saying. Zelensky isnt asking for people with training  and neither was the YPG.


----------



## TacticalTea

Out of three guys I know from Edmonton, two of them are indeed called Bob, and Doug


----------



## Czech_pivo

TacticalTea said:


> Out of three guys I know from Edmonton, two of them are indeed called Bob, and Doug


and the third one is called Kevin.


----------



## Rifleman62

Canada cannot have Territorial Defense Bns unless they do not have fire arms due to the Government of Canada’s prohibition.
Surely the Air National Guard can muster 36 Ukrainian speaking A-10 drivers.
Confiscate all of the  Oligarchs'  assets and hold the funds in Geneva to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine's homes, utilities, etc. 

Where's Trudeau.


----------



## Remius

Rifleman62 said:


> Where's Trudeau.


who cares.  Frieyland and Anand are handling it.  Leave it be…


----------



## Altair

Rifleman62 said:


> Canada cannot have Territorial Defense Bns unless they do not have fire arms due to the Government of Canada’s prohibition.
> Surely the Air National Guard can muster 36 Ukrainian speaking A-10 drivers.
> Confiscate all of the  Oligarchs'  assets and hold the funds in Geneva to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine's homes, utilities, etc.
> 
> Where's Trudeau.


Calling for Russia to be kicked out of interpol today.


----------



## The Bread Guy

I wonder who was on that plane?

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499472158996803585


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499455753282899974


----------



## armrdsoul77

My War

A disturbing portrait of four Western volunteers who risk their lives to fight ISIS alongside Kurdish forces. The feature documentary *My War* probes the complex motives behind the need to take up arms on someone else’s behalf.


----------



## TacticalTea

Latvia barks.

Belarus has ‘ceased to exist’ as an independent nation, Latvian president says

As much as I agree with the notion that Russia has co-opted Belarus' foreign policy - as well as part of its law enforcement - and thus negated its sovereignty, this sort of talk seems to legitimize the rationale that Putin is using to invade and fragment Ukraine.

It might be more accurate to say that Belarus is on the path of vassalization. At any rate, I think it's overall a good move by Latvia, as it introduces the matter in the diplomatic realm.


----------



## AmmoTech90

The Bread Guy said:


> I wonder who was on that plane?
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499472158996803585


Yesterday's news.
A bunch of folks trying for an around the world drive next year.  They thought it was a good idea to carry on with their Canadian test drive.








						Plane carrying Russians is grounded in Yellowknife
					

A private aircraft transporting Russian nationals has been grounded in Yellowknife. It appears linked to an expedition trying to cross the globe by vehicle.




					cabinradio.ca


----------



## QV

rmc_wannabe said:


> Yeah just ask ISIS . Some dudes are gonna find themselves cleaning toilets and cooking borscht in Lviv rather than doing 360 no scopes against Ivan.


Post of the day right here.


----------



## The Bread Guy

This isn't obvious? (Note the hemming/hawing about fighting for the UKR Foreign Legion now)


> *Ottawa is warning that Canadians who decide to fight for Russia in Ukraine could face severe consequences*, even as it acknowledges for the first time uncertainties about whether it is legal to bear arms for the Ukrainian side.
> 
> Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland delivered the warning to anyone contemplating joining the Russian military invasion of Ukraine on Thursday as she announced more Canadian sanctions on Moscow and support for Kyiv in response to that attack.
> 
> Asked at a news conference whether Canadians who pick up arms for Russia would be prosecuted, Freeland said: “We are very clear that this war is illegal. And Canada will take a very appropriately severe view of anyone who is fighting this war.”
> 
> Yet federal ministers appeared less confident about the legality of fighting for Ukraine, whose government appealed last weekend for foreign volunteers to join an “international brigade” to help defend the country from Russia.
> 
> (...)
> 
> The federal government had previously avoided directly addressing the legality of Canadians fighting in Ukraine, or whether it supports those who want to do so. Federal ministers instead couched the issue as a matter of personal risk.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499493931142336522


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> This isn't obvious? (Note the hemming/hawing about fighting for the UKR Foreign Legion now)


Joining to assist NATO Enhanced Opportunity Partner State  (not Member) that the CDN and other NATO Governments are supplying with Weapons and Intelligence already -- I'd love to see the Crown try to prosecute that one.


----------



## KevinB

Ugh

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499532303822770178

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499532374497009665


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499529667711221770


----------



## suffolkowner

HiTechComms said:


> I sometimes think CBC is just good at gaslighting all sides..  Then again a broken clock is right twice a day.


There is a little pot/kettle thing going on here


----------



## KevinB

suffolkowner said:


> There is a little pot/kettle thing going on here


But he's not wrong in this instance.


----------



## Jarnhamar

KevinB said:


> Ugh
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499532303822770178
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499532374497009665


I wouldn't be surprised if "Ukraine" saboteurs send one of those nuke plants into melt down.


----------



## NavyShooter

Thinking about heading over...here's something to watch first for a legal perspective.


----------



## KevinB

Jarnhamar said:


> I wouldn't be surprised if "Ukraine" saboteurs send one of those nuke plants into melt down.


Shootout is live streaming - sporadic shooting now - but there appears to be a fire burning in the plant.


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499529667711221770


Do you want Chernobyl 2.0? Cause that's how you get it


----------



## Altair

Who had nuclear meltdown on their 2022 bingo card?


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> Who had nuclear meltdown on their 2022 bingo card?


Nope, I had bubonic plague and mid-sized meteorite impact in large urban area.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> Nope, I had bubonic plague and mid-sized meteorite impact in large urban area.


I had global economic collapse and face eating wasps.


----------



## Czech_pivo

NavyShooter said:


> Thinking about heading over...here's something to watch first for a legal perspective.


So what happened to the approx. 40,000 CDN’s who enlisted in the US military to fight in Vietnam? Nothing, nothing at all. What happened to the CDN’s who went and fought for various sides in the Yugo Civil War? Nothing, nothing at all? Those that fought for the Kurds?


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> This isn't obvious? (Note the hemming/hawing about fighting for the UKR Foreign Legion now)





> While Freeland did not say whether Canadians who fight for Russia could be prosecuted, author and historian Tyler Wentzell suspected federal lawyers are now taking a hard, long look at the Foreign Enlistment Act and how it can apply today.
> 
> Passed in 1937, the act was intended to keep Canada neutral during the Spanish Civil War and basically banned joining a foreign military to fight a country Canada considers “friendly.” Those who violate the law can face a fine of up to $2,000 and two years in prison.
> 
> But exactly what counts as a friendly country is not defined, and Wentzell noted *the act specifically gives cabinet the power and flexibility to determine which foreign conflicts are allowed or banned.
> 
> “They can issue regulations that unequivocally say: You can’t join the Russian Armed Forces,” said Wentzell, who has studied Canadians’ involvement in previous foreign conflicts and written a book on Canadians fighting in the Spanish Civil War.*
> 
> *“They can also issue regulations that say: We will not prosecute anyone, or we require ministerial authorization to prosecute anyone for the following offences.”*



All it requires is for a Canadian politician to make a decision ........









						Canadians urged to join Armed Forces rather than the 16,000 foreign fighters in Ukraine
					

The Deputy Prime Minister implied anyone fighting for Russia could be breaking international law — but there are also uncertainties on whether fighting for…




					nationalpost.com


----------



## Jarnhamar

Chrystia Freeland accused of posing with extremist symbols, blames Russian disinformation.



> A classic KGB disinformation smear is accusing Ukrainians and Ukrainian-Canadians of being far right extremists or fascists or Nazis,' Freeland's press secretary said



The article highlights an interesting point. When it was brought to light in 2017 that Freeland’s grandfather was allegedly the editor of Kravivski Visti, a pro-Nazi newspaper established in German-occupied Poland during the Second World War,her office did not address the claim directly, but warned Canadian media to _be wary of Russian disinformation._


----------



## Kilted

I'm starting to think that it wasn't 2020 that was going to be insane, but the 2020's that are insane.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Kirkhill said:


> All it requires is for a Canadian politician to make a decision ........
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canadians urged to join Armed Forces rather than the 16,000 foreign fighters in Ukraine
> 
> 
> The Deputy Prime Minister implied anyone fighting for Russia could be breaking international law — but there are also uncertainties on whether fighting for…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nationalpost.com


So the Liberals suggest you join an army that does not equip it's troops with modern ATGM's or Air Defense systems? sound a bit suicidal to me. Nor do I think the people volunteering for this conflict would be content in a garrison in Gagetown painting rocks.


----------



## kev994

The Bread Guy said:


> This isn't obvious? (Note the hemming/hawing about fighting for the UKR Foreign Legion now)


People want to fight for Russia?? The Russians don’t even want to fight for Russia.


----------



## Altair

Colin Parkinson said:


> So the Liberals suggest you join an army that does not equip it's troops with modern ATGM's or Air Defense systems? sound a bit suicidal to me. Nor do I think the people volunteering for this conflict would be content in a garrison in Gagetown painting rocks.


Again, I like the LPC better than all the other options but that was the most blatantly dishonest drivel I've heard about the Canadian Armed Forces since my recruiter asked me if I liked camping and I said no and he said I would love the CAF anyways.


----------



## Furniture

Colin Parkinson said:


> So the Liberals suggest you join an army that does not equip it's troops with modern ATGM's or Air Defense systems? sound a bit suicidal to me. Nor do I think the people volunteering for this conflict would be content in a garrison in Gagetown painting rocks.


You mean people looking for adventure don't want to sit at a DWAN trying to do DLN courses, then get jacked up because they took too long to get change out of their pocket, or they have a toque on but no gloves? 

I find that hard to believe...


----------



## Altair

Furniture said:


> You mean people looking for adventure don't want to sit at a DWAN trying to do DLN courses, then get jacked up because they took too long to get change out of their pocket, or they have a toque on but no gloves?
> 
> I find that hard to believe...


When you put it that way...


----------



## HiTechComms

I think encouraging people to join a foreign legion to fight is a terrible idea. Didn't we just finish with ISIS which was compromised of many foreign fighters, even ones from western countries. What kind of a message does that send? "Go be a foreign fighter as long as it agrees with popular politics?"  This is just crazy. Take your chances I guess but I don't believe in creating extremism on any level.
If you are Ukrainian citizen then nothing stops a citizen joining the armed forces.


----------



## Altair

HiTechComms said:


> I think encouraging people to join a foreign legion to fight is a terrible idea. Didn't we just finish with ISIS which was compromised of many foreign fighters, even ones from western countries. What kind of a message does that send? "Go be a foreign fighter as long as it agrees with popular politics?"  This is just crazy. Take your chances I guess but I don't believe in creating extremism on any level.
> If you are Ukrainian citizen then nothing stops a citizen joining the armed forces.


Didn't people fight with the Peshmerga and YPG to fight ISIL?

Spoiler alert, nothing happened to them.

Legally.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Hammer And Anvil: Eighth Day 

As of March 3, the situation near Kharkiv remains difficult for both sides of the conflict. Russian units, that suffered losses in the previous days, do not seek to go deeper into the city. At the same time, they carry out targeted strikes on military facilities and hideouts of the Ukrainian military. On the night of March 3, Russian special operations forces continued their activities in the city, aimed at identifying the main defense nodes and eliminating the command staff. The encirclement of Kharkiv has not yet been carried out.

Mariupol remains blockaded by the joint forces of Russia and the DPR. Fighting is going on the outskirts of the city. The major assault has not started, but several clashes have taken place in the outskirts. No attempts of counter-offensive attacks by Ukrainian forces were reported.

Given the large number of military personnel and nationalistic fighters in the city, it will not be possible to take it quickly. However, Kyiv has no forces in the region to deblockade the city. The roads leading to Mariupol are cut off. On March 2, the DPR units closed the ring around Mariupol and took control over the settlements of Primorskoye, Priazovskoye, Shevchenko and Berdyansk.

DPR and Russia organized the evacuation of civilians and created a green corridor from Mariupol. However, the nationalist battalions, which are hiding in large numbers in residential areas, are in no hurry to let their ‘human shields’ go.

In Kyiv Region, Russian units continue their successful encirclement of the capital. Throughout March 2, there was fighting near Irpen. To the southwest of Irpen, there were battles for control over the Kiev-Zhytomyr highway. Russian troops encircling Kyiv from the southwest were spotted on the outskirts of Vasylkiv.

The Ukrainian military blew up a bridge in Baryshevka. This settlement is 10 km north of the Kiev-Boryspil-Poltava-Kharkiv highway. It can be assumed that Russian troops are close to this highway and that they are preparing an operation to intercept it with further advance to Boryspil.

In the direction of Mykolaiv, Russian units attempted to encircle the city in order to blockade it and get a passage to Odessa. On March 2, the Russians failed to cut off the Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog highway. On the same day, airborne troops allegedly landed from helicopters on the outskirts of Mykolaiv. The success of the operation as well as the objectives of the action are unclear.

Despite the fact that the main forces of Russia and the DPR were previously sent to break through to Mariupol, which ended yesterday with a complete encirclement, on March 2, Russian troops continued to strengthen their positions, moving north.

The Russian army took control over the town of Kamenka-Dneprovskoye and Vasilevka in Zaporizhia Region.

On March 1, it was announced that the Zaporozhye NPP, the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, located in the city of Energodar, came under the control of Russian  forces in order to avoid provocations from Kyiv. However, local sources said that armed locals continue to block the road to the nuclear plant.

LPR forces continue their offensive north and northwest toward the junction with Russian units near Kharkiv. Meanwhile, Russian units took control of Balakleya and approached Izyum with further plans to advance toward Slavyansk.

As of March 3, the most threatening situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is developing in this theater of the military operation. Tens of thousands of servicemen may be completely surrounded.

DPR units are fighting positional battles to the West and Northwest of Donetsk. In this section of the front, DPR units act as an anvil, waiting for a hammer blow to the flanks of the largest grouping of Kiev forces in eastern Ukraine

On the one hand, the seventh day of the conflict demonstrated a certain tiredness of the advancing Russian troops. On the other hand, the Russian command seems to have taken into account the mistakes of the past days and the Russian offensive became a full-scale army operation rather than a cavalry special operation on the enemy’s rear. The morale and technical condition of the most combat-ready units of the Ukrainian military is deteriorating. Both Ukrainian servicemen and fighters of nationalist battalions in all eastern and southeastern parts of the front are surrendering



From southfront.org


----------



## HiTechComms

Altair said:


> Didn't people fight with the Peshmerga and YPG to fight ISIL?
> 
> Spoiler alert, nothing happened to them.


True. I don't agree with that either. If you are a Citizen of said country yes but other wise I do not agree with and in all honesty shouldn't be tolerated. Its always a Political mess and puts governments in bad situations. I am no pro legislations of this as I believe people are free to do what they want but Government messaging should be not one that encourages. I can remember one very famous case of a particular individual chucking a grenade at a medic and giving out a 10.5 million dollar pay out. You get caught don't expect to be rescued imho.

Double edged sword. Actions have consequences good or bad.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Czech_pivo said:


> So what happened to the approx. 40,000 CDN’s who enlisted in the US military to fight in Vietnam? Nothing, nothing at all. What happened to the CDN’s who went and fought for various sides in the Yugo Civil War? Nothing, nothing at all? Those that fought for the Kurds?



or ISIS...


----------



## Altair

HiTechComms said:


> True. I don't agree with that either. If you are a Citizen of said country yes but other wise I do not agree with and in all honesty shouldn't be tolerated. Its always a Political mess and puts governments in bad situations. I am no pro legislations of this as I believe people are free to do what they want but Government messaging should be not one that encourages. I can remember one very famous case of a particular individual chucking a grenade at a medic and giving out a 10.5 million dollar pay out. You get caught don't expect to be rescued imho.
> 
> Double edged sword. Actions have consequences good or bad.


Meh. If the government is too cowardly to assist people in need, and every Nato nation is just that, then privatr citizens should be able to do it for them.

As for the government, PLEASE. They trained the Peshmerga. They trained YPG. They provided air support. They helped them. They trained Ukraine. They armed Ukraine.

Its nothing but pure base hypocrisy to say that private citizens cannot fight for people the Canadian government have been openly assisting.

The government knows this too. I know a guy who fought in syria. CBSA agents looked at his phone, saw dead ISIL and gave him a pat on the back and waved him through.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Apparently Russian SOF marking Diplomatic areas (for targets?)
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499386273177513986


Or good guys (for "please don't hit")?


----------



## Eye In The Sky

HiTechComms said:


> I think encouraging people to join a foreign legion to fight is a terrible idea. Didn't we just finish with ISIS which was compromised of many foreign fighters, even ones from western countries. What kind of a message does that send? "Go be a foreign fighter as long as it agrees with popular politics?"  This is just crazy. Take your chances I guess but I don't believe in creating extremism on any level.
> If you are Ukrainian citizen then nothing stops a citizen joining the armed forces.



I'm going to say that Russia and ISIS are the ones who are 'similar' is you're going to compare the 2 conflicts...joining Ukrainian forces to fight an invader isn't something I'd call "extremism" either.


----------



## MilEME09

Eye In The Sky said:


> I'm going to say that Russia and ISIS are the ones who are 'similar' is you're going to compare the 2 conflicts...joining Ukrainian forces to fight an invader isn't something I'd call "extremism" either.


He is likely painting a broad stroke because of the Anzov battalion and right sector, are more extreme in their views. Cause all Ukrainians are die hard nazi's according the Czar Putin


----------



## HiTechComms

Eye In The Sky said:


> I'm going to say that Russia and ISIS are the ones who are 'similar' is you're going to compare the 2 conflicts...


Oh sure. Then again if there were consequences for those individuals as foreigners and thus they should be completely liable to laws if they are captured.

You get captured you are prosecuted don't come screaming to your home government come and save me.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Colin Parkinson said:


> So the Liberals suggest you join an army that does not equip it's troops with modern ATGM's or Air Defense systems? sound a bit suicidal to me. Nor do I think the people volunteering for this conflict would be content in a garrison in Gagetown painting rocks.



But just think of glory inherent in the possibility of being called out to tow an 18 wheeler off of the Prime Minister’s front lawn


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Or good guys (for "please don't hit")?


When same markers were found earlier on UKR Mil buildings, I doubt it -- Poland is the last country with an Ambassador in Kyiv, so its probably more of a FU


----------



## Altair

HiTechComms said:


> Oh sure. Then again if there were consequences for those individuals as foreigners and thus they should be completely liable to laws if they are captured.
> 
> You get captured you are prosecuted don't come screaming to your home government come and save me.


Yeah, thats part of the deal.

But its no different than canadians joining PMCs.

To say otherwise is asinine.

Just follow the golden rules. Dont fight for Canada's enemies, follow the LOAC and your 6 is covered.


----------



## HiTechComms

MilEME09 said:


> He is likely painting a broad stroke because of the Anzov battalion and right sector, are more extreme in their views. Cause all Ukrainians are die hard nazi's according the Czar Putin


I am painting broad stroke of foreign fighters on any side. I just don't agree with it.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

HiTechComms said:


> Oh sure. Then again if there were consequences for those individuals as foreigners and thus they should be completely liable to laws if they are captured.
> 
> You get captured you are prosecuted don't come screaming to your home government come and save me.



While I agree with you, I am not confident that is how the Liberal govt handled the ISIS fighter who returned...


----------



## Altair

HiTechComms said:


> I am painting broad stroke of foreign fighters on any side. I just don't agree with it.


There are 3 choices.

Do nothing.

Join the CAF and do nothing.

Fight for Ukraine.

For someone who wants to stop the evil that is Putin, the choice is rather easy.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Jarnhamar said:


> Chrystia Freeland accused of posing with extremist symbols, blames Russian disinformation.
> 
> 
> 
> The article highlights an interesting point. When it was brought to light in 2017 that Freeland’s grandfather was allegedly the editor of Kravivski Visti, a pro-Nazi newspaper established in German-occupied Poland during the Second World War,her office did not address the claim directly, but warned Canadian media to _be wary of Russian disinformation._


There is nothing alleged about it, he was the editor of that newspaper.


----------



## HiTechComms

Altair said:


> Yeah, thats part of the deal.
> 
> But its no different than canadians joining PMCs.
> 
> To say otherwise is asinine.
> 
> Just follow the golden rules. Dont fight for Canada's enemies and follow the LOAC your 6 is covered.


Agreed if you want to be a PMC go ahead. Don't expect the government to save you. 

On the other part what happens with "Dual Citizenship" holders?  I mean then its a much more complicated situation.  Should we allow for dual citizenships, should you denounce your citizenship ? etc..  Lawyers will need to figure that out.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Altair said:


> There are 3 choices.
> 
> Do nothing.
> 
> Join the CAF and do DLN training and Teams meetings...
> 
> Fight for Ukraine.
> 
> For someone want to stop the evil that is Putin, the choice is rather easy.



Reflects reality for a fair % of CAF members the last 2 years?


----------



## Altair

Eye In The Sky said:


> Reflects reality for a fair % of CAF members the last 2 years?


----------



## Altair

HiTechComms said:


> Agreed if you want to be a PMC go ahead. Don't expect the government to save you.


Who is saying this? Nobody.


HiTechComms said:


> On the other part what happens with "Dual Citizenship" holders?  I mean then its a much more complicated situation.  Should we allow for dual citizenships, should you denounce your citizenship ? etc..  Lawyers will need to figure that out.


Dont fight for Canada's enemies, follow the LOAC.

Done.


----------



## HiTechComms

Eye In The Sky said:


> While I agree with you, I am not confident that is how the Liberal govt handled the ISIS fighter who returned...


I think they should have been sent back to the country they were fighting in to stand trial under their laws. (over simplification) I don't think we should have ever entertained "returning isis fighters"


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499500895805091841


----------



## Jarnhamar

Altair said:


> Who is saying this? Nobody.
> 
> Dont fight for Canada's enemies, follow the LOAC.
> 
> Done.


Is Russia Canada's enemy?


----------



## KevinB

Jarnhamar said:


> Is Russia Canada's enemy?


It sure was when I first joined.
  The first words I was told after being sworn in, was "Your job is to kill Russians" 

Honestly it looked like for a brief shinning few years that had changed - but...


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> When same markers were found earlier on UKR Mil buildings, I doubt it -- Poland is the last country with an Ambassador in Kyiv, so its probably more of a FU


I don’t see the Polish Ambassador leaving, he’s going to stay until the end, as a FU to the Russians.


----------



## Czech_pivo

HiTechComms said:


> Agreed if you want to be a PMC go ahead. Don't expect the government to save you.
> 
> On the other part what happens with "Dual Citizenship" holders?  I mean then its a much more complicated situation.  Should we allow for dual citizenships, should you denounce your citizenship ? etc..  Lawyers will need to figure that out.


Should we allow citizenship based on the fact a baby is born in Canada, regardless if the parents even reside in Canada, case in point, ‘vacation babies’.


----------



## Haggis

HiTechComms said:


> I think they should have been sent back to the country they were fighting in to stand trial under their laws. (over simplification) I don't think we should have ever entertained "returning isis fighters foreign travellers who can be a powerful voice for change"


FTFY.


----------



## MilEME09

__





						Ukraine conflict: Turkey airlifts additional TB2 UCAVs to Ukraine
					

Turkey has airlifted additional Baykar Bayraktar TB2 unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) to Ukraine.



					www.janes.com
				




Turkey has given Ukraine an unknown number of additional TB2 UCAVs to bolster its fighting power


----------



## HiTechComms

Czech_pivo said:


> Should we allow citizenship based on the fact a baby is born in Canada, regardless if the parents even reside in Canada, case in point, ‘vacation babies’.


Never said there was an easy answer. What would be nice is a legislation that actually defined these specific situations. If we don't like them then we need to lobby and change them.


----------



## HiTechComms

Czech_pivo said:


> I don’t see the Polish Ambassador leaving, he’s going to stay until the end, as a FU to the Russians.


Poland has a lot of Ukrainians in Poland. Not to mention that Poland has a long history with the Russians. Political posture is needed since Poland has Russia on its borders. 

Also the impeding refugee crisis they still need a diplomatic solution option.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Sorry if someone has already posted this.

Number of Russian soldiers killed is as high as Ukraine’s president claims, senior Western military source says​Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s claim that nearly 6,000 Russian soldiers have been killed since the start of the invasion last week is not exaggerated and is sure to rise sharply as the Russian military lays siege to big cities.

That was the assessment of a senior Western intelligence official. “I think the numbers that he is quoting there are probably highly accurate,” the official said, suggesting the figure is no doubt far higher than Russian President Vladimir Putin had expected after only six days of military operations inside Ukraine.









						Number of Russian soldiers killed is as high as Ukraine’s president claims, senior Western military source says - The Globe and Mail
					

The nearly 6,000 deaths is not exaggerated and sure to rise sharply as the Russian military lays siege to big cities, according to the source



					www.theglobeandmail.com


----------



## Eaglelord17

Altair said:


> Untrained Ukrainians sure seem to be helping.
> 
> And there are other ways to help other than being a trigger puller.
> 
> Those with medical training can assist for example.
> 
> But I will say this. Anything someone can do for Ukraine in Ukraine now is infinitely better than what one can do by joining the Canadian armed forces.


‘Untrained’ doesn’t really apply to Ukraine as they have conscription. This isn’t Canada, their citizenry have all done some level of time in the military be it the USSR or Ukrainian forces. This is why they are able to just hand out 18k AKs to their citizens as they all have a rough idea on how to use them.


----------



## Furniture

HiTechComms said:


> I think encouraging people to join a foreign legion to fight is a terrible idea. Didn't we just finish with ISIS which was compromised of many foreign fighters, even ones from western countries. What kind of a message does that send? *"Go be a foreign fighter as long as it agrees with popular politics?"*  This is just crazy. Take your chances I guess but I don't believe in creating extremism on any level.
> If you are Ukrainian citizen then nothing stops a citizen joining the armed forces.



Have you considered that your take is ridiculous? Seriously? 

You're comparing people who are answering a democratically elected government's call for foreign assistance, to extremists who burn people alive...  

Just for some perspective, the CAF are foreign fighters doing what is popular in politics when we go places and kill people. The governments of NATO are handing the Ukrainian government weapons hand over fist, they aren't a terror organization.


----------



## KevinB

Russian Fires Rocket Directly into Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant Campus
					

At the time of this writing, there's a massive gun battle raging at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in the city of Enerhodar. This footage is a quick clip of a Russian Soldier firing a shoulder fired rocket at one of the buildings inside the plant's campus.




					funker530.com


----------



## HiTechComms

Furniture said:


> Have you considered that your take is ridiculous? Seriously?
> 
> You're comparing people who are answering a democratically elected government's call for foreign assistance, to extremists who burn people alive...
> 
> Just for some perspective, the CAF are foreign fighters doing what is popular in politics when we go places and kill people. The governments of NATO are handing the Ukrainian government weapons hand over fist, they aren't a terror organization.


Ideologies and ideologues are not discerning.  

People that are not their citizens of said country. All I said is the government should have a clear message, you go and do this we are not going to save you.  You are on your own.

CAF are under the control of the government. Last time I checked to serve in the CAF you need a citizenship.

I am not discussing weapons, weapons are only tools you still need users. These are also State actors.


----------



## Czech_pivo

HiTechComms said:


> Poland has a lot of Ukrainians in Poland. Not to mention that Poland has a long history with the Russians. Political posture is needed since Poland has Russia on its borders.
> 
> Also the impeding refugee crisis they still need a diplomatic solution option.


He’s staying in solidarity with the Ukrainians and as a giant FU to the Russians. It’s telling the Russians we don’t fear you. 
It has little to do with the impeding refugee crisis. If you think this is bad now, the refugees in Poland - that figure will go up 5-7x if Ukraine goes under. The farther west you from Kiev in Ukraine the hate factor against Russian grows which each km. If Ukraine goes under, I say you have 6-8million refugees by June 1st, if the borders aren’t slammed shut.

Your a different kind of Pole that I’m used to dealing with if you don’t dislike Russians at a bare minimum.


----------



## Furniture

HiTechComms said:


> Ideologies and ideologues are not discerning.
> 
> People that are not their citizens of said country. All I said is the government should have a clear message, you go and do this we are not going to save you.  You are on your own.
> 
> CAF are under the control of the government. Last time I checked to serve in the CAF you need a citizenship.
> 
> *I am not discussing weapons, weapons are only tools you still need users. These are also State actors.*


You compared people going over to ISIS. You might have meant something else, but that's not what you said. 

The bolded part makes no sense... Canada is supporting Ukraine by giving them weapons. Canada can't exactly turn around and say to Canadians, don't go support Ukraine. 

I suspect you harbour some dislike for Ukraine/Ukrainians, and are masking it by coming up with ridiculous arguments about "state actors".


----------



## KevinB

An 85-year-old law paves the way for Canadians to fight in Ukraine
					

Canada has unambiguously expressed its support for those wanting to fight for Ukraine. If even a fraction of Ukrainian-Canadians decide to do so, large numbers of Canadians could soon be in Ukraine.




					theconversation.com


----------



## HiTechComms

Czech_pivo said:


> Your a different kind of Pole that I’m used to dealing with if you don’t dislike Russians at a bare minimum.


I don't understand what this means? 

Just because I am Polish I have a default hate switch for the Russians?


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> Sorry if someone has already posted this.
> 
> Number of Russian soldiers killed is as high as Ukraine’s president claims, senior Western military source says​Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s claim that nearly 6,000 Russian soldiers have been killed since the start of the invasion last week is not exaggerated and is sure to rise sharply as the Russian military lays siege to big cities.
> 
> That was the assessment of a senior Western intelligence official. “I think the numbers that he is quoting there are probably highly accurate,” the official said, suggesting the figure is no doubt far higher than Russian President Vladimir Putin had expected after only six days of military operations inside Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Number of Russian soldiers killed is as high as Ukraine’s president claims, senior Western military source says - The Globe and Mail
> 
> 
> The nearly 6,000 deaths is not exaggerated and sure to rise sharply as the Russian military lays siege to big cities, according to the source
> 
> 
> 
> www.theglobeandmail.com


I think it would be safe to assume atleast double that have been wounded. Add on all the POWs, desertion, etc... it's no wonder Russia is pulling more forces to the front.


----------



## Czech_pivo

*More economic fall out for Russia.  The vultures are beginning to pick at the corpse.*

Croatia’s HPB buys Sberbank​The Croatian Postal Bank (HPB) has bought Sberbank Croatia for 71 million kuna (€9.46 million).

Had there been liquidation, the losses would have been 8 billion kuna (€1.06 billion), which has been prevented, Croatian National Bank (HNB) governor Boris Vujčić said on Wednesday.

Vujčić said Sberbank had been very successful, with capital adequacy of almost 20%.

“With this transaction, we’ll have a very good, very capitalised, liquid, efficient bank… The deposits are now safe, both citizens’ and the corporate sector’s,” said Vujčić.

Sberbank Croatia has changed its name to Nova Hrvatska Banka (New Croatian Bank), HPB Management Board Chairman Marko Badurina said.

After a two-day moratorium, Sberbank reopened its branches and offices in Croatia at noon on Wednesday.









						Croatia’s HPB buys Sberbank
					






					www.euractiv.com


----------



## HiTechComms

Furniture said:


> You compared people going over to ISIS. You might have meant something else, but that's not what you said.
> 
> The bolded part makes no sense... Canada is supporting Ukraine by giving them weapons. Canada can't exactly turn around and say to Canadians, don't go support Ukraine.
> 
> I suspect you harbour some dislike for Ukraine/Ukrainians, and are masking it by coming up with ridiculous arguments about "state actors".


A government action is sanctioned by the people in a democratic society, an individuals actions are not sanctioned by the government thus not by the people. I just would like to have a clear message about this.


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> I think it would be safe to assume atleast double that have been wounded. Add on all the POWs, desertion, etc... it's no wonder Russia is pulling more forces to the front.


Basically strike a full western sized division from their order of battle.


----------



## MilEME09

Ukraine: Estonian cargo ship sinks after blast in Black Sea
					

All six-crew members of the Helt have been saved after an explosion near Ukraine's port of Odesa.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## HiTechComms

KevinB said:


> An 85-year-old law paves the way for Canadians to fight in Ukraine
> 
> 
> Canada has unambiguously expressed its support for those wanting to fight for Ukraine. If even a fraction of Ukrainian-Canadians decide to do so, large numbers of Canadians could soon be in Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> theconversation.com


Well that solved my question. Thanks.


----------



## Haggis

Eaglelord17 said:


> ‘Untrained’ doesn’t really apply to Ukraine as they have conscription. This isn’t Canada, their citizenry have all done some level of time in the military be it the USSR or Ukrainian forces. This is why they are able to just hand out 18k AKs to their citizens as they all have a rough idea on how to use them.


Less than 10% (a "fringe minority") of Canadians have any formal firearms training and an even smaller percentage have any ground combat tactical training.  The vast majority of Canadians have never seen an "assault style firearm" up close and they have been conditioned by their government and media to fear them.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

MilEME09 said:


> Ukraine: Estonian cargo ship sinks after blast in Black Sea
> 
> 
> All six-crew members of the Helt have been saved after an explosion near Ukraine's port of Odesa.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.co.uk


Hmmm that looks like an act of war on a NATO nation....


----------



## MilEME09

rmc_wannabe said:


> Hmmm that looks like an act of war on a NATO nation....


Grey area, it's Estonian owned but Panamanian flagged


----------



## Eye In The Sky

HiTechComms said:


> Ideologies and ideologues are not discerning.
> 
> People that are not their citizens of said country. All I said is the government should have a clear message, you go and do this we are not going to save you.  You are on your own.
> 
> CAF are under the control of the government. Last time I checked to serve in the CAF you need a citizenship.
> 
> I am not discussing weapons, weapons are only tools you still need users. These are also State actors.



If Canadians went to the UKR to fight for UKR....they're state actors?


----------



## Furniture

Eye In The Sky said:


> If Canadians went to the UKR to fight for UKR....they're state actors?


I suppose if the Ukrainian government has a newly founded Foreign Legion, they are also lawful combatants.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Grey area, it's Estonian owned but Panamanian flagged


Depends if Estonia claims it and Invokes Art 5


----------



## HiTechComms

Eye In The Sky said:


> If Canadians went to the UKR to fight for UKR....they're state actors?


Sure. If Ukrainian government provides legal defense sure, if the legislation exists to allow this ? Then again will Russia recognize this if Ukraine falls.

I suppose they could be granted citizenship.  I am not concerned about Ukraine as much as I am concerned this coming back to Canada of Russia hold Canadian citizens pulling heart strings. People need to understand that they are on their own.


----------



## FJAG

HiTechComms said:


> Well that solved my question. Thanks.



It would if the headline of the article actually was based on fact. I'm afraid it's a bit off. There's no direct "paving the way" but more a bit of "wink-wink; nudge-nudge; say no more".

S. 4 of the Foreign Enlistment Act provides:



> *4* Any person who, being a Canadian national, leaves or goes on board any conveyance with a view to leaving Canada with intent to accept any commission or engagement in the armed forces of any foreign state at war with any friendly foreign state or, whether a Canadian national or not, within Canada, induces any other person to leave or go on board any conveyance with a view to leaving Canada, with a like intent, is guilty of an offence.



In short the key portion of the statute is fighting for a foreign state "at war with any friendly foreign state".

I think that we can unanimously agree with the fact that the Ukraine definitely meets the definition of a "friendly foreign state". One our government is actively supporting. In other words it is clear that any Canadian fighting for Russia would clearly be in breach of the law.

The question is whether Russia is still a friendly state vis-a-vis Canada. We are not in open hostilities with Russia and, save for the sanctions, still have relations with Russia. The fact that we're furious at Russia does not necessarily change the status. And frankly the statute is weak on defining what the alternatives to "friendly" are: "hostile", "neutral"? To the best of my knowledge this provision has never been tested or defined in our courts and other nation's laws (the few that I've looked at) are just dissimilar enough to offer no black letter law guidance. In all probability, despite everything, Russia is still a "friendly state" within the meaning of the Act.

I think that our leaders are currently being very guarded and cautious with their language. That's understandable as while sanctioning Russia they don't want to aggravate future relationships with that country by giving clear encouragement to volunteers for the Ukraine.

Regardless, I sincerely doubt that there would ever be any prosecution under this law against any individual who fought for the Ukraine.

🍻


----------



## YZT580

Czech_pivo said:


> Now only if a Canadian politician stood up and said the exact same thing.


THEY WILL NOW THAT SOMEONE ELSE HAS SAID IT FIRST.  sAD


----------



## Haggis

FJAG said:


> It would if the headline of the article actually was based on fact. I'm afraid it's a bit off. There's no direct "paving the way" but more a bit of "wink-wink; nudge-nudge; say no more".


A statement by a government official at a presser is about as authoritative as a Tweet from the PM.

Woe be to the test case who ends up in the gulag after Ukraine falls and hopes he will get help from our government.  They would be asking for more than the government is willing to give.


----------



## TacticalTea

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499574209567199235
As much as I dislike his politics, I love Lindsey's way with words. 

''A more successful Stauffenberg''


----------



## Furniture

Haggis said:


> A statement by a government official at a presser is about as authoritative as a Tweet from the PM.
> 
> Woe be to the test case who ends up in the gulag after Ukraine falls and hopes he will get help from our government.  They would be asking for more than the government is willing to give.


Given that we are actively sending weapons to Ukraine to help them kill Russian soldiers, I'm pretty sure even government "intervention" isn't going to help much if captured.

Besides, lets be honest here, the people going over aren't thinking about what happen in 5 years. They are thinking, "I want to do something", "I want adventure", or "I want to go kill Russians, and maybe meet a nice Ukrainian because I love perogies, nachenka, nalysnysky, and borscht"....

And now I'm hungry.


----------



## Altair

Jarnhamar said:


> Is Russia Canada's enemy?


YES.


----------



## Kirkhill

Eye In The Sky said:


> If Canadians went to the UKR to fight for UKR....they're state actors?



That depends.

100th Regiment, US Civil War Volunteers, Quebec Zouaves, Canadian Boatmen for Egypt, CMRs, Lord Strathcona's, Galt's PPCLI, MacPaps, the CEF, WW2 Canadian Army in Europe, Korean Special Force, Vietnam.

The rules of engagement differed in each case.  In each case the government made a political calculation and determined what it could get away with while not breaking the country.

Politicians make decisions.  But only if they absolutely have to.


----------



## Kirkhill

FJAG said:


> It would if the headline of the article actually was based on fact. I'm afraid it's a bit off. There's no direct "paving the way" but more a bit of "wink-wink; nudge-nudge; say no more".
> 
> S. 4 of the Foreign Enlistment Act provides:
> 
> 
> 
> In short the key portion of the statute is fighting for a foreign state "at war with any friendly foreign state".
> 
> I think that we can unanimously agree with the fact that the Ukraine definitely meets the definition of a "friendly foreign state". One our government is actively supporting. In other words it is clear that any Canadian fighting for Russia would clearly be in breach of the law.
> 
> The question is whether Russia is still a friendly state vis-a-vis Canada. We are not in open hostilities with Russia and, save for the sanctions, still have relations with Russia. The fact that we're furious at Russia does not necessarily change the status. And frankly the statute is weak on defining what the alternatives to "friendly" are: "hostile", "neutral"? To the best of my knowledge this provision has never been tested or defined in our courts and other nation's laws (the few that I've looked at) are just dissimilar enough to offer no black letter law guidance. In all probability, despite everything, Russia is still a "friendly state" within the meaning of the Act.
> 
> I think that our leaders are currently being very guarded and cautious with their language. That's understandable as while sanctioning Russia they don't want to aggravate future relationships with that country by giving clear encouragement to volunteers for the Ukraine.
> 
> Regardless, I sincerely doubt that there would ever be any prosecution under this law against any individual who fought for the Ukraine.
> 
> 🍻



Especially seeing as how we seem to lack even the proverbial knife to take to the gunfight that is happening over there.


----------



## Kirkhill

Haggis said:


> A statement by a government official at a presser is about as authoritative as a Tweet from the PM.
> 
> Woe be to the test case who ends up in the gulag after Ukraine falls and hopes he will get help from our government.  They would be asking for more than the government is willing to give.



Canada pays the Ukrainian Government.  The Ukrainians put money in escrow to manage the care of their "veterans".  Regardless of the outcome.

Bob's your uncle.


----------



## HiTechComms

TacticalTea said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499574209567199235
> As much as I dislike his politics, I love Lindsey's way with words.
> 
> ''A more successful Stauffenberg''


How is this not going to be used in Russia as propaganda? The Russians Pravda will be hey look a siting US senator is calling for assassinations?  Twitter strikes again. 

With sanctions, military aid aren't we now just cornering the Russians more? Cornered animals are dangerous.


----------



## cyber_lass

Furniture said:


> Given that we are actively sending weapons to Ukraine to help them kill Russian soldiers, I'm pretty sure even government "intervention" isn't going to help much if captured.
> 
> Besides, lets be honest here, the people going over aren't thinking about what happen in 5 years. They are thinking, "I want to do something", "I want adventure", or "I want to go kill Russians, and maybe meet a nice Ukrainian because I love perogies, nachenka, nalysnysky, and borscht"....
> 
> And now I'm hungry.


Only a fellow Uke would mention nachenka! ... Miss that crack...


----------



## Kirkhill

Bit more info for the tire logistics?











						Top four reasons the snaking Russian military convoy hasn't moved in days
					

One main logistical challenge appears to be seasonal: early-spring mud that prevents movement of its poorly maintained trucks




					nationalpost.com


----------



## Furniture

cyber_lass said:


> Only a fellow Uke would mention nachenka! ... Miss that crack...


I'm as WASP as WASPs come(as far as ancestry is concerned), but my ex Mother-In-Law was of Ukrainian descent, and I fell in love with the food.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> Bit more info for the tire logistics?
> 
> View attachment 69161
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Top four reasons the snaking Russian military convoy hasn't moved in days
> 
> 
> One main logistical challenge appears to be seasonal: early-spring mud that prevents movement of its poorly maintained trucks
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nationalpost.com



Oh great, now there are tire nerds too


----------



## Kirkhill

Hey, everybody has their uses.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Russian Fires Rocket Directly into Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant Campus
> 
> 
> At the time of this writing, there's a massive gun battle raging at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in the city of Enerhodar. This footage is a quick clip of a Russian Soldier firing a shoulder fired rocket at one of the buildings inside the plant's campus.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> funker530.com


No, no, no, brother - that's UKRAINIAN NAZIS doing a false flag (pro-RUS amplifier site) ...








						Russian Defense Ministry informs about provocation by Ukrainian saboteurs at Zaporozhzhye nuclear power plant - Essence of Time
					

The Zaporozhzhye nuclear power plant is operating in normal mode, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said at a March 4 briefing.




					eu.eot.su
				





Eye In The Sky said:


> If Canadians went to the UKR to fight for UKR....they're state actors?


If they have to sign a two-year contract with the Territorial Defence Forces as some OS says?  I defer to those with more legal knowledge, but as a layperson, I see a case _could _be made.  I'm also seeing the law is a bit multilayered here, so I stand to be corrected.

If someone goes as Rambo & offers up their services outside UKR chain of command?  Probably less of a case, but easier for the Russians to just shoot them saying, "hey, he was a civvy with a lit molotov cocktail in his hand eyeing up my APC."


----------



## The Bread Guy

Also, here's the latest from the IAEA:


> Ukraine informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) today that the site of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) had been shelled overnight and Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi immediately spoke with Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal as well as the country’s national nuclear regulator and operator about the serious situation.
> 
> Director General Grossi appealed for a halt of the use of force and warned of severe danger if any reactors were hit. He is expected to hold a press conference at 10:30 CET on Friday.
> 
> The Ukraine regulatory authority said a fire at the site had not affected “essential” equipment and plant personnel were taking mitigatory actions. There was no reported change in radiation levels at the plant, it said.
> 
> The IAEA is putting its Incident and Emergency Centre (IEC) in full response mode due to the situation at the Zaporizhzhia NPP, Director General Grossi said ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Altair said:


> Didn't people fight with the Peshmerga and YPG to fight ISIL?
> 
> Spoiler alert, nothing happened to them.
> 
> Legally.


Not in Canada, anyway, even if the case WAS dropped ...


----------



## KevinB

Ukrainian drone enthusiasts sign up to repel Russians
					

What we know about the Russian attack on Ukraine, March 4.




					www.militarytimes.com


----------



## tomydoom

KevinB said:


> Ukraine: How might the war end? Five scenarios
> 
> 
> What are some of the possible scenarios that politicians and military planners are examining?
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Kevin's bet #3 followed by #5


My bets were #2 followed by #5.  #3 is too likely to result in a nuclear exchange, for me to be willing to even think about.


----------



## Haggis

Kirkhill said:


> Canada pays the Ukrainian Government.  The Ukrainians put money in escrow to manage the care of their "veterans".  Regardless of the outcome.
> 
> Bob's your uncle.


When Russia wins, the escrow is seized by the Kremlin, all those foreigners who joined an "illegal international terrorist militia" are declared criminals and:

a. spend the rest of their lives turning big rocks into little rocks; or
b. are publicly executed as enemies of the Sovetskogo Soyuza; or
c. both a. and and b.


----------



## KevinB

tomydoom said:


> My bets were #2 followed by #5.  #3 is too likely to result in a nuclear exchange, for me to be willing to even think about.


While it may, if NATO doesn’t act in the Ukraine, Russia will just keep going. 

#BetterDeadThanRed


----------



## tomydoom

KevinB said:


> While it may, if NATO doesn’t act in the Ukraine, Russia will just keep going.
> 
> #BetterDeadThanRed


I think you may be disappointed Kevin.  I believe what they are doing now, is all that is going to be done.  Cash, weapons, food and "volunteers" all flowing over the border and fast as NATO can move them.  But I don't think that directly engaging Russian forces is something anyone has an appetite for.  Nearly every NATO leader has said as much, hence the declining to establish a no-fly zone. Now, if a NATO member is directly attacked, then the gloves come off.


----------



## Haggis

tomydoom said:


> Now, if a NATO member is directly attacked, then the gloves come off.


I believe that you highly overestimate NATO's resolve, particularly with the first post-COVID summer on the horizon.

#NoActionTalkOnly


----------



## Kirkhill

Haggis said:


> When Russia wins, the escrow is seized by the Kremlin, all those foreigners who joined an "illegal international terrorist militia" are declared criminals and:
> 
> a. spend the rest of their lives turning big rocks into little rocks; or
> b. are publicly executed as enemies of the Sovetskogo Soyuza; or
> c. both a. and and b.


There is that.


----------



## tomydoom

Haggis said:


> I believe that you highly overestimate NATO's resolve, particularly with the first post-COVID summer on the horizon.
> 
> #NoActionTalkOnly


I'm not as hawkish as Kevin, but if NATO does not honour article 5, it has no value and  Vlad has won.


----------



## ueo

Ihave a question, lots of figures on KIA and wounded but I've not seen a recap of POWs. Any input welcomed.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Haggis said:


> I believe that you highly overestimate NATO's resolve, particularly with the first post-COVID summer on the horizon.
> 
> #NoActionTalkOnly


I think if Poland is directly attacked, then the Germans man-up and go in to support, same with the Brits and the Americans.  The Poles border the Germans and Fritz does not want to lose the buffer between them and the Poles especially if the buffer of the Ukraine is gone. The Poles would fight and would do so with a smile as they hate the Russians.

Where its a crapshoot if NATO defends is the Baltics.  Even with our speed bumps located there I'm not certain if NATO would go all in against Russia for them.

I do not see the Bear trying for any parts of Romania/Hungary/Slovakia.


----------



## KevinB

Thread by @UmlandAndreas on Thread Reader App
					

@UmlandAndreas: How to create a non-NATO #NoFlyZone over #Ukraine, in five steps: 1. Secure a couple of West Ukrainian airports with enough anti-aircraft installations to make them usable. @Konflikt_Sicher @UkrVerst...…




					threadreaderapp.com


----------



## HiTechComms

Czech_pivo said:


> I think if Poland is directly attacked, then the Germans man-up and go in to support, same with the Brits and the Americans.  The Poles border the Germans and Fritz does not want to lose the buffer between them and the Poles especially if the buffer of the Ukraine is gone. The Poles would fight and would do so with a smile as they hate the Russians.
> 
> Where its a crapshoot if NATO defends is the Baltics.  Even with our speed bumps located there I'm not certain if NATO would go all in against Russia for them.
> 
> I do not see the Bear trying for any parts of Romania/Hungary/Slovakia.


If Russia attacks Poland its going to be WW3.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499687426658385922


----------



## The Bread Guy

Haggis said:


> When Russia wins, the escrow is seized by the Kremlin, all those foreigners who joined an "illegal international *Nazi* terrorist militia" are declared criminals and:
> 
> a. spend the rest of their lives turning big rocks into little rocks; or
> b. are publicly executed as enemies of the Sovetskogo Soyuza; or
> c. both a. and and b.


FTFY - and agree 100%


----------



## MilEME09

BBC is reporting Russia has committed 100% of its operational troops, and is now shifting more forces to Ukraine as losses continue to mount.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest on who's going where from UNHCR


----------



## Quirky

MilEME09 said:


> BBC is reporting Russia has committed 100% of its operational troops, and is now shifting more forces to Ukraine as losses continue to mount.


If NATO and modern cruise missiles and fighters get involved, Russia will get rolled over.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Meanwhile, Chechens are going to Chechen...


Chechens Fighting Chechens in Ukraine​Kadyrovites are now ranged against anti-Kremlin veterans of the Chechen wars in the war for Ukraine​
Amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a new war-within-a-war is unfolding.

This time, between countrymen: the Chechens sent by the republic’s pro-Russian leader, strongman Ramzan Kadyrov, and those fighting against him, on the side of Ukraine.

Chechnya itself serves as a microcosm of what Russian President Vladimir Putin would like to establish in Ukraine. An always-restive part of the Russian and then Soviet empires, Chechnya broke away from Moscow’s control in 1991, becoming a de facto independent state in the North Caucasus. The first attempt to reimpose federal control, in the form of the first Chechen war from 1994 to 1996, ended in humiliating failure for Russia: The Chechen fighters, despite being severely outgunned and outnumbered, scored a stunning victory and forced a Russian withdrawal. When Putin came to power in late 1999, he did not repeat the mistake. The Chechen capital Grozny was leveled, and key leaders were bribed to switch over to the Russian side with their troops. One of these, Akhmad Kadyrov, was installed as president. After his assassination in 2004, his brutal, uneducated son Ramzan was made the republic’s head. Kadyrov has since ruled Chechnya with an iron fist, ruthlessly crushing dissent with his own Moscow-funded militia, the Kadyrovtsy (from the Russian for “Kadyrov’s men”). Having fought in eastern Ukraine in 2014, these men are now back in greater numbers to bolster the Russian ranks in their invasion of the entire country.

It is unknown how many soldiers Kadyrov has sent to Ukraine, but the number is significant. Most reports indicate approximately 10,000 have been deployed; the highest figures range up to (a highly improbable) 70,000. More are being actively recruited, too: A source in Grozny provided a video on Feb. 25 that shows thousands of men being gathered and equipped for duty in Ukraine. Audio recordings of conversations between Kadyrov and other Russian officials reveal that the Chechen ruler was one of the few figures made aware of Putin’s plans for a full-scale invasion in the run-up to the event.










						Chechens Fighting Chechens in Ukraine
					

Kadyrovites are now ranged against anti-Kremlin veterans of the Chechen wars in the war for Ukraine.




					newlinesmag.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> BBC is reporting Russia has committed 100% of its operational troops, and is now shifting more forces to Ukraine as losses continue to mount.


Wonder if that ties with what I've seen out of Kazakhstan where locals are videoing Kaz troops on trains heading west.....

If this is so and their troops cross in to Ukraine, at what point does the US/NATO say, hold on there Vladdy, this isn't going to cut it.


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> BBC is reporting Russia has committed 100% of its operational troops, and is now shifting more forces to Ukraine as losses continue to mount.


And this is where Anonymous could come in handy and shut down the Russian train system.  The Russians would be dead in the water in their ability to move in new troops/supplies to the area.


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Latest on who's going where from UNHCR
> View attachment 69163


And remember - that number is going to be well over 85% women and children as no men over 18 and under 60 should be allowed to leave.


----------



## KevinB

The military gap between Russia and Ukraine is vast
					

But not as wide as it may appear




					www.economist.com


----------



## HiTechComms

The Bread Guy said:


> Latest on who's going where from UNHCR
> View attachment 69163


Since Poland already had a close to 1+ Ukrainians since 2014 the refugees will most likely have a better support system for them than any country. There is also a 60% of a language over lap then any other Slavic friendly country.


----------



## The Bread Guy

daftandbarmy said:


> Meanwhile, Chechens are going to Chechen...
> 
> 
> Chechens Fighting Chechens in Ukraine​Kadyrovites are now ranged against anti-Kremlin veterans of the Chechen wars in the war for Ukraine​
> Amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a new war-within-a-war is unfolding.
> 
> This time, between countrymen: the Chechens sent by the republic’s pro-Russian leader, strongman Ramzan Kadyrov, and those fighting against him, on the side of Ukraine.
> 
> Chechnya itself serves as a microcosm of what Russian President Vladimir Putin would like to establish in Ukraine. An always-restive part of the Russian and then Soviet empires, Chechnya broke away from Moscow’s control in 1991, becoming a de facto independent state in the North Caucasus. The first attempt to reimpose federal control, in the form of the first Chechen war from 1994 to 1996, ended in humiliating failure for Russia: The Chechen fighters, despite being severely outgunned and outnumbered, scored a stunning victory and forced a Russian withdrawal. When Putin came to power in late 1999, he did not repeat the mistake. The Chechen capital Grozny was leveled, and key leaders were bribed to switch over to the Russian side with their troops. One of these, Akhmad Kadyrov, was installed as president. After his assassination in 2004, his brutal, uneducated son Ramzan was made the republic’s head. Kadyrov has since ruled Chechnya with an iron fist, ruthlessly crushing dissent with his own Moscow-funded militia, the Kadyrovtsy (from the Russian for “Kadyrov’s men”). Having fought in eastern Ukraine in 2014, these men are now back in greater numbers to bolster the Russian ranks in their invasion of the entire country.
> 
> It is unknown how many soldiers Kadyrov has sent to Ukraine, but the number is significant. Most reports indicate approximately 10,000 have been deployed; the highest figures range up to (a highly improbable) 70,000. More are being actively recruited, too: A source in Grozny provided a video on Feb. 25 that shows thousands of men being gathered and equipped for duty in Ukraine. Audio recordings of conversations between Kadyrov and other Russian officials reveal that the Chechen ruler was one of the few figures made aware of Putin’s plans for a full-scale invasion in the run-up to the event.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Chechens Fighting Chechens in Ukraine
> 
> 
> Kadyrovites are now ranged against anti-Kremlin veterans of the Chechen wars in the war for Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> newlinesmag.com


And some of the UKR National Guard are ready to deal with the "visiting" Chechens ...








						Ukraine Uses 'Pig-Fat Bullets' To Deflate Russian Aggression While Moscow Determined To De-Nazify Kiev, Remove Zelensky
					

Russian President Vladimir Putin, prior to ordering a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, made a fiery speech, saying that the “special military operation” was aimed at “de-Nazifying” the neighboring country. A video released recently shows what Putin was perhaps insinuating.  On February 25, Putin...




					eurasiantimes.com
				




In other news, this from the UK Times ....








						Volodymyr Zelensky survives three assassination attempts in days
					

President Zelensky has survived at least three assassination attempts in the past week, The Times has learnt.Two different outfits have been sent to kill the Uk




					www.thetimes.co.uk
				



... as well as this from a pro-RUS amplifier site ...








						Zelensky has left the territory of Ukraine - Essence of Time
					

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has left the country, the speaker of the Russian State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin said on March 4 in his telegram channel.




					eu.eot.su
				



... and a little something from the "remember these folks?" file








						Pussy Riot Helps Raise $6.7 Mln for Ukraine with NFT  - The Moscow Times
					

An NFT of the Ukrainian flag, backed by a member of Russian activist group Pussy Riot, has raised over $6.7 million to support Ukraine’s military.  A fundraiser organized by UkraineDAO, a collective fundraising for the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine, attracted thousands of users who bid for a...




					www.themoscowtimes.com


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499773101755805703


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499723090875584516


----------



## armrdsoul77

This Is Our First Tragic Look At All That's Left Of Ukraine's Giant An-225 Cargo jet


----------



## KevinB

armrdsoul77 said:


> View attachment 69167This Is Our First Tragic Look At All That's Left Of Ukraine's Giant An-225 Cargo jet


While sad, planes can be rebuilt - as long as there are people left...


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> And some of the UKR National Guard are ready to deal with the "visiting" Chechens ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine Uses 'Pig-Fat Bullets' To Deflate Russian Aggression While Moscow Determined To De-Nazify Kiev, Remove Zelensky
> 
> 
> Russian President Vladimir Putin, prior to ordering a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, made a fiery speech, saying that the “special military operation” was aimed at “de-Nazifying” the neighboring country. A video released recently shows what Putin was perhaps insinuating.  On February 25, Putin...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> eurasiantimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In other news, this from the UK Times ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Volodymyr Zelensky survives three assassination attempts in days
> 
> 
> President Zelensky has survived at least three assassination attempts in the past week, The Times has learnt.Two different outfits have been sent to kill the Uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thetimes.co.uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ... as well as this from a pro-RUS amplifier site ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zelensky has left the territory of Ukraine - Essence of Time
> 
> 
> Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has left the country, the speaker of the Russian State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin said on March 4 in his telegram channel.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> eu.eot.su
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ... and a little something from the "remember these folks?" file
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Pussy Riot Helps Raise $6.7 Mln for Ukraine with NFT  - The Moscow Times
> 
> 
> An NFT of the Ukrainian flag, backed by a member of Russian activist group Pussy Riot, has raised over $6.7 million to support Ukraine’s military.  A fundraiser organized by UkraineDAO, a collective fundraising for the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine, attracted thousands of users who bid for a...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.themoscowtimes.com


Two different outfits have been sent to kill the Ukrainian president — mercenaries of the Kremlin-backed Wagner group and Chechen special forces. *Both have been thwarted by anti-war elements within Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB).

If *this is correct, then there is an internal war being fought within the FSB and the winner of this internal war will dictate the course of the war with Ukraine and Russia going forward.

If this -'anti-war' faction wins, Putin is gone.  Conversely, if they lose, expect draconical laws to be implemented within Russia by the pro-Putin faction, ruthless continuation of the war and purges.


----------



## HiTechComms

KevinB said:


> While sad, planes can be rebuilt - as long as there are people left...


There are no more spares for this beast. Its like the Mars in Canada. Antanov said it wouldn't build any more. Ukraine no longer has capacity to build airplanes. Hopefully the people are ok but its a shame none the less.
That airplane was amazing piece of engineering.

On another note what is Canada doing?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499472158996803585
I hope this isn't true. Are we now unlawfully detaining foreign citizens?  Sure more to the story but we cannot hold these people.


----------



## Czech_pivo

HiTechComms said:


> There are no more spares for this beast. Its like the Mars in Canada. Antanov said it wouldn't build any more. Ukraine no longer has capacity to build airplanes. Hopefully the people are ok but its a shame none the less.


I disagree - if Ukraine survives independently, the resolve to rebuild this plane as a symbol of Ukrainian spirit.  I think that aeronautical engineers from around the world would jump at the chance to be apart of this rebuild.


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> And some of the UKR National Guard are ready to deal with the "visiting" Chechens ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine Uses 'Pig-Fat Bullets' To Deflate Russian Aggression While Moscow Determined To De-Nazify Kiev, Remove Zelensky
> 
> 
> Russian President Vladimir Putin, prior to ordering a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, made a fiery speech, saying that the “special military operation” was aimed at “de-Nazifying” the neighboring country. A video released recently shows what Putin was perhaps insinuating.  On February 25, Putin...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> eurasiantimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In other news, this from the UK Times ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Volodymyr Zelensky survives three assassination attempts in days
> 
> 
> President Zelensky has survived at least three assassination attempts in the past week, The Times has learnt.Two different outfits have been sent to kill the Uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thetimes.co.uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ... as well as this from a pro-RUS amplifier site ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zelensky has left the territory of Ukraine - Essence of Time
> 
> 
> Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has left the country, the speaker of the Russian State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin said on March 4 in his telegram channel.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> eu.eot.su
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ... and a little something from the "remember these folks?" file
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Pussy Riot Helps Raise $6.7 Mln for Ukraine with NFT  - The Moscow Times
> 
> 
> An NFT of the Ukrainian flag, backed by a member of Russian activist group Pussy Riot, has raised over $6.7 million to support Ukraine’s military.  A fundraiser organized by UkraineDAO, a collective fundraising for the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine, attracted thousands of users who bid for a...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.themoscowtimes.com


Does anyone have access to the entire article from the Times on the assassination attempts? There is a paywall.  If anyone does, able to post it all here?


----------



## HiTechComms

Czech_pivo said:


> Does anyone have access to the entire article from the Times on the assassination attempts? There is a paywall.  If anyone does, able to post it all here?





			archive.ph
		


Best way to get past paywalls. I started the process but its very busy today, queue is huge. I usually recommend just to use archives instead of direct links since I don't like clicks on rage/click bait.



			archive.ph
		

 Times Article. Looks like its been archived already.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Two different outfits have been sent to kill the Ukrainian president — mercenaries of the Kremlin-backed Wagner group and Chechen special forces. *Both have been thwarted by anti-war elements within Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB).
> 
> If *this is correct, then there is an internal war being fought within the FSB and the winner of this internal war will dictate the course of the war with Ukraine and Russia going forward.
> 
> If this -'anti-war' faction wins, Putin is gone.  Conversely, if they lose, expect draconical laws to be implemented within Russia by the pro-Putin faction, ruthless continuation of the war and purges.


3 attempts have been made FWIW. 
   Let's be honest about Wagner Group - it's de facto (if not de jure) that it is Russia's Black Ops side.  Several of them are serving Russian SOF/Int Personnel -- it's a shell game, no one really calls it out because we do the same sort of thing.


0 for 3, you're out.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499780544435048455


----------



## KevinB

HiTechComms said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499472158996803585
> I hope this isn't true. Are we now unlawfully detaining foreign citizens?  Sure more to the story but we cannot hold these people.


Your right - they should get put in an Iceberg and set adrift...

The flew a private Russian aircraft into closed airspace - I personally thing shooting them down would have been a good example.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> 3 attempts have been made FWIW.
> Let's be honest about Wagner Group - it's de facto (if not de jure) that it is Russia's Black Ops side.  Several of them are serving Russian SOF/Int Personnel -- it's a shell game, no one really calls it out because we do the same sort of thing.
> 
> 
> 0 for 3, you're out.


The Wagner mercenaries were unaware of the Chechen assassins but have carried out their own attempts to decapitate the government, after being embedded in Kyiv for more than six weeks, tracking the activities of 24 high-profile Ukrainian targets.

Can anyone on here provide us with the sense of the bodies needed to track 24 individuals over 6 weeks?  Initial thoughts are a force of well over 70-80 people.

EDIT: I should have read the entire article before posting this question:

_"A source close to the mercenaries in Kyiv insists that despite the loss of some of the group in botched operations this week, the numbers are still on their side, with almost 400 in the capital alone."_

That's half a battalion of men, highly trained ( I assume) and well armed already within the capital.


----------



## HiTechComms

KevinB said:


> Your right - they should get put in an Iceberg and set adrift...
> 
> The flew a private Russian aircraft into closed airspace - I personally thing shooting them down would have been a good example.


No better way to sway Russian people then by punishing people for the actions of a State they have no control over.. Really really good material for propaganda machine in Russia.

Lets violate fundamental rights of people we don't agree with? Send them back if that is the case but unlawful detention is a pretty clear violation under the Charter.

Yep. Hearts and minds. A little extreme call to action. 

Stage 1 decision making at its finest.


----------



## Altair

HiTechComms said:


> No better way to sway Russian people then by punishing people for the actions of a State they have no control over..
> 
> Yep. Hearts and minds. A little extreme call to action.  Stage 1 decision making at its finest.


The second they coup Putin and end the war they can get their stuff and privileges back.


----------



## KevinB

HiTechComms said:


> No better way to sway Russian people then by punishing people for the actions of a State they have no control over.. Really really good material for propaganda machine in Russia.
> 
> Yep. Hearts and minds. A little extreme call to action.
> Stage 1 decision making at its finest.


Airspace is closed to Russia.
  Morons fly in anyway.

Damned right I would have splashed them.


----------



## Scott

HiTechComms said:


> No better way to sway Russian people then by punishing people for the actions of a State they have no control over.. Really really good material for propaganda machine in Russia.
> 
> Lets violate fundamental rights of people we don't agree with? Send them back if that is the case but unlawful detention is a pretty clear violation under the Charter.
> 
> Yep. Hearts and minds. A little extreme call to action.
> 
> Stage 1 decision making at its finest.


Or show them that what was said was meant.

Which is what has been done.

I am sorry you can't grasp this.


----------



## HiTechComms

Altair said:


> The second they coup Putin and end the war they can get their stuff and privileges back.


Does that also apply to everyone.. I mean they are pro Ukraine protests in Ottawa now but couple weeks ago it was an insurrection?  Double standards much. Seems the post 911 nut job crowd is coming out in force.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Airspace is closed to Russia.
> Morons fly in anyway.
> 
> Damned right I would have splashed them.


HiTechComms -

Answer this question, what would have been the scenario if the opposite had occurred?  That this plane was full of Canadians and it had left Canada and entered into the closed to us Russian airspace?  Do you think that the plane would have been splashed or allowed to land in Russia.

Listening intently from above are the passengers of Korean Air Lines Flight 007 for your answer.....


----------



## HiTechComms

KevinB said:


> Airspace is closed to Russia.
> Morons fly in anyway.
> 
> Damned right I would have splashed them.


Ok. You think shooting down civilian planes is ok?


----------



## Altair

HiTechComms said:


> Does that also apply to everyone.. I mean they are pro Ukraine protests in Ottawa now but couple weeks ago it was an insurrection?  Double standards much. Seems the post 911 nut job crowd is coming out in force.


----------



## HiTechComms

Czech_pivo said:


> HiTechComms -
> 
> Answer this question, what would have been the scenario if the opposite had occurred?  That this plane was full of Canadians and it had left Canada and entered into the closed to us Russian airspace?  Do you think that the plane would have been splashed or allowed to land in Russia.
> 
> Listening intently from above are the passengers of Korean Air Lines Flight 007 for your answer.....


Oh nice what about ism? I don't care what Russia would do I care about what Canada does.
I am not a citizen of Russia.

We are suppose to be better then Russia or China or what ever authoritarian regime does.

Indiscriminate killing of civilians is an abhorrent action when any one does it. Yep that's it for me, we are not at war with Russia. Again my stance of post 911 bigotry stands and that is a hill I am willing to stand and fight on. We treat people equally under the law or we don't because otherwise its a slippery slope.  I am done.


----------



## Furniture

HiTechComms said:


> Ok. You think shooting down civilian planes is ok?


I'd suggest taking a break from posting for a while... 

You are pretending that illegally entering Canadian air space isn't justification to be detained. You're comparing a small protest in support of Ukraine to shutting down the centre of a city for a couple of weeks, and overall are coming across as a bit of a pro-Russia/pro-Putin troll. 

Reassess your position, and think about what your intended message is before hitting reply.


----------



## Czech_pivo

HiTechComms said:


> Oh nice what about ism? I don't care what Russia would do I care about what Canada would does.
> I am not a citizen of Russia.
> 
> We are suppose to be better then Russia or China or what ever authoritarian regime does.
> 
> Indiscriminate killing of civilians is an abhorrent action when any one does it. Yep that's it for me, we are not at war with Russia. Again my stance of post 911 bigotry stands and that is a hill I am willing to stand and fight on. We treat people equally under the law or we don't because otherwise its a slippery slope.  I am done.


I understand your point of view, I really do but real life experiences has made me understand that the real world is not so easy to place into the colours of 'white' and 'black' when in essence it's really filled light gray, gray, medium gray, dark gray, white with specks of gray in it, black with streaks of white in it, gray with white in it and so and so and so.


----------



## kev994

KevinB said:


> Your right - they should get put in an Iceberg and set adrift...
> 
> The flew a private Russian aircraft into closed airspace - I personally thing shooting them down would have been a good example.


Is it actually a Russian airplane? I’ve only seen that it was a chartered airplane with Russians. Your supposition would explain a lot, but I haven’t read anywhere that it was a Russian plane, it could be.


----------



## tomydoom

HiTechComms said:


> Oh nice what about ism? I don't care what Russia would do I care about what Canada would does.
> I am not a citizen of Russia.
> 
> We are suppose to be better then Russia or China or what ever authoritarian regime does.
> 
> Indiscriminate killing of civilians is an abhorrent action when any one does it. Yep that's it for me, we are not at war with Russia. Again my stance of post 911 bigotry stands and that is a hill I am willing to stand and fight on. We treat people equally under the law or we don't because otherwise its a slippery slope.  I am done.


Did you even read the article, or just the  headline?

The Russians were not detained, the aircraft was.  Canadian airspace is closed to ALL Russian owned, operated or *chartered *aircraft.



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/russian-plane-yellowknife-1.6370725
		


"The assessment will "determine if there has been any violation of the recently announced Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) prohibiting Russian aircraft (owned, chartered, or certified) from operating in Canadian airspace," the spokesperson said in the email."

No charter rights were violated and as foreign nationals, they can be asked to leave the country at any time, for nearly any reason.


----------



## tomydoom

kev994 said:


> Is it actually a Russian airplane? I’ve only seen that it was a chartered airplane with Russians. Your supposition would explain a lot, but I haven’t read anywhere that it was a Russian plane, it could be.


The notice to airman also prohibits Russian chartered aircraft, it's quoted in the CBC article.


----------



## HiTechComms

tomydoom said:


> Did you even read the article, or just the  headline?
> 
> The Russians were not detained, the aircraft was.  Canadian airspace is closed to ALL Russian owned, operated or *chartered *aircraft.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/russian-plane-yellowknife-1.6370725
> 
> 
> 
> "The assessment will "determine if there has been any violation of the recently announced Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) prohibiting Russian aircraft (owned, chartered, or certified) from operating in Canadian airspace," the spokesperson said in the email."
> 
> No charter rights were violated and as foreign nationals, they can be asked to leave the country at any time, for nearly any reason.


I did read the article ctv article after the twitter post. Again its more emotional manipulation from both sides. The rhetoric is getting out of hand. War hysteria, hell they are banning Russian cats from Feline competitions. Russian-Bred Cats Nipped From International Competition Over Invasion of Ukraine

I don't know the whole story but it sounds like they got caught during transit maybe the flight crew didn't know the legalities of the changes.. Lack of information and lots of assumptions. Send them back and that is that. Some of the posters had extreme views on how to deal with these people. IE: Splashing them.

Its a stupid situation.

The problem is how are these people going to return if they cannot return because all their avenues of egress are closed? Did any one think of the consequences of lets ban Russian flights into Canada.


----------



## Furniture

HiTechComms said:


> I did read the article ctv article after the twitter post. Again its more emotional manipulation from both sides.
> 
> I don't know the whole story but it sounds like they got caught during transit maybe the flight crew didn't know the legalities of the changes.. Lack of information and lots of assumptions. Send them back and that is that. Some of the posters had extreme views on how to deal with these people. IE: Splashing them.
> 
> Its a stupid situation.
> 
> The problem is how are these people going to return if they cannot return because all their avenues of egress are closed? Did any one think of the consequences of lets ban Russian flights into Canada.


You know other air carriers fly to places that allow Russian aircraft right?

One of the dudes on the flight is a billionaire, and I'm sure they have raised money via other means to sponsor the global expedition, they can find a way home if they want to.

These aren't simple peasants we plucked off an Air Canada flight to throw into camps.


----------



## tomydoom

HiTechComms said:


> I did read the article ctv article after the twitter post. Again its more emotional manipulation from both sides.
> 
> I don't know the whole story but it sounds like they got caught during transit. Lack of information. Send them back and that is that. Some of the posters had extreme views on how to deal with these people. IE: Splashing them.
> 
> Its a stupid situation.
> 
> The problem is how are these people going to return if they cannot return because all their avenues of egress are closed? Did any one think of the consequences of lets ban Russian flights into Canada.


You're not going to gain much traction there.  For better or worse, people are held accountable for the actions of their governments.  You are, I am, those Russians are.

How Canada plays that game is VERY mild, by global standards.  These individuals will likely be asked to leave and repatriated, via a 3rd county, where flights connect to both Canada and Russia.  China and UAE come to mind.

While some on here, may be being a little hyperbolic, Canada would never "splash" a civilian aircraft, unless it failed to follow orders to either leave Canadian airspace or land.

As some have suggested, nothing is ever black and white and shades of grey are to be expected.


----------



## Quirky

KevinB said:


> Airspace is closed to Russia.
> Morons fly in anyway.
> 
> Damned right I would have splashed them.


----------



## Haggis

tomydoom said:


> While some on here, may be being a little hyperbolic, Canada would never "splash" a civilian aircraft, unless it failed to follow orders to either leave Canadian airspace or land.


It's not quite that simple.  Hopefully one of our resident Hornet drivers will come along soon to expound on this.


----------



## tomydoom

Haggis said:


> It's not quite that simple.  Hopefully one of our resident Hornet drivers will come along soon to expound on this.


Fair enough, I would expect lengthy rules of engagement.  The point I was trying to make was that, the RCAF is not likely to be shooting down a civvy Cessna  any day soon, though it may be justified is certain circumstances.


----------



## The Bread Guy

HiTechComms said:


> archive.ph
> 
> 
> 
> Best way to get past paywalls. I started the process but its very busy today, queue is huge. I usually recommend just to use archives instead of direct links since I don't like clicks on rage/click bait.
> 
> 
> 
> archive.ph
> 
> 
> Times Article. Looks like its been archived already.


archive.today seems to work better for some foreign sites than archive.org.  

Another good site to use is 12 Foot Ladder - doesn't get thru EVERY firewall, but many.


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


>



Can I wave my flags too?


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499789029361000455
Is Ukraine gaining the upper hand in the air war?


----------



## Kirkhill

HiTechComms said:


> Oh nice what about ism? I don't care what Russia would do I care about what Canada does.
> I am not a citizen of Russia.
> 
> We are suppose to be better then Russia or China or what ever authoritarian regime does.
> 
> Indiscriminate killing of civilians is an abhorrent action when any one does it. Yep that's it for me, we are not at war with Russia. Again my stance of post 911 bigotry stands and that is a hill I am willing to stand and fight on. We treat people equally under the law or we don't because otherwise its a slippery slope.  I am done.



Nice Alinsky 4 there.


----------



## HiTechComms

Kirkhill said:


> Nice Alinsky 4 there.


Yes I read the book as I have previously mentioned. Not sure what you are alluding too if you are alluding to anything at all.

I also read a bunch of other books, do you have any recommendations. I appreciate anyone that reads. I do recommend Robert Green and Thomas Sowell.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Chechen prez:  Happy to pay folks for the heads of "Ukrainian nationalist commanders" (English & Russian attached)


----------



## HumblePie

quelle surprise


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499799533072662532


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499815517141483524Translation: 
Officer Serhiy Chizhikov, who worked as a simple clerk in peacetime a week and a half ago, shot down an enemy plane bombing Chernihiv from a MANPADS. Glory to the Ukrainian Soldiers! 
@ArmedForcesUkr
Telegram - https://t.me/a_shtirlitz


----------



## Czech_pivo

HiTechComms said:


> Yes I read the book as I have previously mentioned. Not sure what you are alluding too if you are alluding to anything at all.
> 
> I also read a bunch of other books, do you have any recommendations. I appreciate anyone that reads. I do recommend Robert Green and Thomas Sowell.


I suggest 3 books to you, all relatively short

1) _*We Never Make Mistakes*_ by Solzhenitsyn
2)  _*We the Living* _by Ann Rand
3) _*One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich* again by  Solzhenitsyn_

As for longer, more recent books

1) _*The Invention of Russia* _by Arkady Ostrovsky (no relation to Victor Ostrovsky, author of 'By Way of Deception' in case any of you were wondering)
2) _*The Crimean Nexus*_ by Constantine Pleshakov

I have read them all over the years and highly recommend all of them as they give wonderful insight into the Russian mind and perspective.


----------



## Czech_pivo

HumblePie said:


> quelle surprise
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499799533072662532


Like I previously mentioned - the myth of 'victimhood' runs deep within Russia and Serbia.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Russian TV of improvised Helicopter airfield


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499815517141483524Translation:
> Officer Serhiy Chizhikov, who worked as a simple clerk in peacetime a week and a half ago, shot down an enemy plane bombing Chernihiv from a MANPADS. Glory to the Ukrainian Soldiers!
> @ArmedForcesUkr
> Telegram - https://t.me/a_shtirlitz


One person at the right place, at the right time, can in fact make a difference and in turn, help change the course of history.

There's the new poster boy for that phase.


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499815517141483524Translation:
> Officer Serhiy Chizhikov, who worked as a simple clerk in peacetime a week and a half ago, shot down an enemy plane bombing Chernihiv from a MANPADS. Glory to the Ukrainian Soldiers!
> @ArmedForcesUkr
> Telegram - https://t.me/a_shtirlitz


Imagine spending 5 years in BTL, 12 years on the force patrolling the skies for lost civil aviators, finally getting deployed only to get shot down on your first sortie by Sergei the clerk, with one week's training.

Oh, no worries, they've sent a helo to rescue you!
But wait! What's that? Sergei again! Shooting down your would-be rescuers.
Sucks to suck.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499819529035210759


----------



## Kirkhill

HiTechComms said:


> Oh nice what about ism? I don't care what Russia would do I care about what Canada does.
> I am not a citizen of Russia.
> 
> We are suppose to be better then Russia or China or what ever authoritarian regime does.
> 
> Indiscriminate killing of civilians is an abhorrent action when any one does it. Yep that's it for me, we are not at war with Russia. Again my stance of post 911 bigotry stands and that is a hill I am willing to stand and fight on. We treat people equally under the law or we don't because otherwise its a slippery slope.  I am done.





HiTechComms said:


> Yes I read the book as I have previously mentioned. Not sure what you are alluding too if you are alluding to anything at all.
> 
> I also read a bunch of other books, do you have any recommendations. I appreciate anyone that reads. I do recommend Robert Green and Thomas Sowell.



For clarification



> We are suppose to be better then Russia or China or what ever authoritarian regime does.



Please note Rule 4 (Highlighted)



> Alinsky's Rules for Radicals
> 
> 1. “Power is not only what you have, but what the enemy thinks you have.” Power is derived from 2 main sources – money and people. “Have-Nots” must build power from flesh and blood.
> 2. “Never go outside the expertise of your people.” It results in confusion, fear and retreat. Feeling secure adds to the backbone of anyone.
> 3. “Whenever possible, go outside the expertise of the enemy.” Look for ways to increase insecurity, anxiety and uncertainty.
> *4. “Make the enemy live up to its own book of rules.” If the rule is that every letter gets a reply, send 30,000 letters. You can kill them with this because no one can possibly obey all of their own rules.*
> 5. “Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon.” There is no defense. It’s irrational. It’s infuriating. It also works as a key pressure point to force the enemy into concessions.
> 6. “A good tactic is one your people enjoy.” They’ll keep doing it without urging and come back to do more. They’re doing their thing, and will even suggest better ones.
> 7. “A tactic that drags on too long becomes a drag.” Don’t become old news.
> 8. “Keep the pressure on. Never let up.” Keep trying new things to keep the opposition off balance. As the opposition masters one approach, hit them from the flank with something new.
> 9. “The threat is usually more terrifying than the thing itself.” Imagination and ego can dream up many more consequences than any activist.
> 10. “The major premise for tactics is the development of operations that will maintain a constant pressure upon the opposition.” It is this unceasing pressure that results in the reactions from the opposition that are essential for the success of the campaign.
> 11. “If you push a negative hard enough, it will push through and become a positive.” Violence from the other side can win the public to your side because the public sympathizes with the underdog.
> 12. “The price of a successful attack is a constructive alternative.” Never let the enemy score points because you’re caught without a solution to the problem.
> 13. “Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it.” Cut off the support network and isolate the target from sympathy. Go after people and not institutions; people hurt faster than institutions.











						Saul Alinsky’s 13 Tried-and-True Rules for Creating Meaningful Social Change
					

Saul David Alinsky died 36 years before the election of Barack Obama and Hilary Clinton's first attempt for the presidency. But many feverish screeds on social media, talk radio, and YouTube might have made one think he lurked behind these politicians like Rasputin.




					www.openculture.com
				




These seem to have supplanted Roberts for debate in the public square.  It seems reasonable that should be widely disseminated so that both sides can understand the Rules of the Game.









						Robert's Rules of Order - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				





So, while on the subject, I suggest that while you are operation under Rule 6, employing Rules 5 and 13 to your satisfaction, endeavouring to conform to Rule 8 while aspiring to Rules 10 and 11, I offer that you have reached Rule 7 sooner than you wanted.

Cheers.


----------



## KevinB

Shocked, I am not

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499827074688761857
Anyone who thinks the Russians will stop in the Ukraine is on crack...


----------



## daftandbarmy

TacticalTea said:


> Imagine spending 5 years in BTL, 12 years on the force patrolling the skies for lost civil aviators, finally getting deployed only to get shot down on your first sortie by Sergei the clerk, with one week's training.



Arithmetic on the Frontier a la 2022  









						Arithmetic on the Frontier by Rudyard Kipling
					

Comments & analysis: A great and glorious thing it is / To learn, for seven years or so, / The Lord knows what




					allpoetry.com


----------



## HiTechComms

Czech_pivo said:


> I suggest 3 books to you, all relatively short
> 
> 1) _*We Never Make Mistakes*_ by Solzhenitsyn
> 2)  _*We the Living* _by Ann Rand
> 3) _*One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich* again by  Solzhenitsyn_
> 
> As for longer, more recent books
> 
> 1) _*The Invention of Russia* _by Arkady Ostrovsky (no relation to Victor Ostrovsky, author of 'By Way of Deception' in case any of you were wondering)
> 2) _*The Crimean Nexus*_ by Constantine Pleshakov
> 
> I have read them all over the years and highly recommend all of them as they give wonderful insight into the Russian mind and perspective.


I have read some of those authors not those particular books. Solzhenitsyn is amazing. Do you mean Ayn Rand? 

I had the pleasure of growing up behind the iron curtain.
I am more familiar with Russian ideologies and motives then most I also have more skin in the game since most of my family is still in Poland. Not that I don't think I need more reference of Russian motivations but having more information is better.


----------



## HiTechComms

Czech_pivo said:


> Like I previously mentioned - the myth of 'victimhood' runs deep within Russia and Serbia.


Most slavic countries do, including Poland.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499762499519926284


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499828681237311494


----------



## daftandbarmy

HiTechComms said:


> Most slavic countries do, including Poland.



... and Scotland, of course


----------



## HiTechComms

KevinB said:


> Shocked, I am not
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499827074688761857
> Anyone who thinks the Russians will stop in the Ukraine is on crack...


I think this was a given. Opportunism at its finest.. Again Russia is using twist the wrist until you negotiate tactic. Its worked for them so far, its more looking like if The Mongols coming knocking at the door even Ivan takes the knee. Still think he wants a Political solution using the military, Russia knows that they cannot hold Ukraine in the long term, but time will tell.


----------



## WLSC

KevinB said:


> Shocked, I am not
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499827074688761857
> Anyone who thinks the Russians will stop in the Ukraine is on crack...


Sadly for Moldavia, just more sanctions...  Propositioning kits might trigger a reaction from Putin🤦‍♂️


----------



## HiTechComms

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499828681237311494


Is that a White delivery van? Is this ford transit van to delivering weapons as the Toyota Truck to a technical? heh


----------



## daftandbarmy

HiTechComms said:


> Is that a White delivery van? Is this ford transit van to delivering weapons as the Toyota Truck to a technical? heh



I assume that the Russians tend to bomb the 'green fleet'


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Shocked, I am not
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499827074688761857
> Anyone who thinks the Russians will stop in the Ukraine is on crack...


For certain Moldova is next up.


----------



## KevinB

FusMR said:


> Sadly for Moldavia, just more sanctions...  Propositioning kits might trigger a reaction from Putin🤦‍♂️


The red strip area is where I see Vlad accepting nothing less.
   The green is a still really wants - and lets me honest he won't be happy till he's rolled back to putting a Wall back up in Germany...


When does the world say enough?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Czech_pivo said:


> For certain Moldova is next up.



As they say, if you're going to be a Bear, be a Grizzly and attack and occupy all the non-NATO countries while you can regardless of the cost.


----------



## daftandbarmy

HiTechComms said:


> I have read some of those authors not those particular books. Solzhenitsyn is amazing. Do you mean Ayn Rand?
> 
> I had the pleasure of growing up behind the iron curtain.
> I am more familiar with Russian ideologies and motives then most I also have more skin in the game since most of my family is still in Poland. Not that I don't think I need more reference of Russian motivations but having more information is better.



Ayn Rand... she's so hot


----------



## WLSC

KevinB said:


> The red strip area is where I see Vlad accepting nothing less.
> The green is a still really wants - and lets me honest he won't be happy till he's rolled back to putting a Wall back up in Germany...
> 
> View attachment 69178
> When does the world say enough?


I was thinking about the same thing.  Democraties are usualy slow to stand firm and fight.  Always lot of catch up to do before it stabilyze.  We're in for the long hull.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> lets me honest he won't be happy till he's rolled back to putting a Wall back up in Germany...
> 
> 
> When does the world say enough?


Honestly, Fast tracking Moldova into NATO.

We saw what happened when we dithered. We ended up playing chicken with Ukraine, and we blinked first. If Moldova is under the NATO umbrella, that puts a halt (if not temporary) to Vlad the Coward's Western Adventure


----------



## The Bread Guy

rmc_wannabe said:


> Honestly, Fast tracking Moldova into NATO.
> 
> We saw what happened when we dithered. We ended up playing chicken with Ukraine, and we blinked first. If Moldova is under the NATO umbrella, that puts a halt (if not temporary) to Vlad the Coward's Western Adventure


Remember, though, Moldova has its own statelet with a hockey-sock full of Russian "peacekeepers" within its borders (or, as someone smarter than me put it elsewhere in these fora, when the USSR broke up, a honkin' big USSR-come-Russian unit just ended up not leaving Moldova), so it may not be even as "simple" as bringing UKR under the umbrella.


----------



## Good2Golf

The Bread Guy said:


> Remember, though, Moldova has its own statelet with a hockey-sock full of Russian "peacekeepers" within its borders (or, as someone smarter than me put it elsewhere in these fora, when the USSR broke up, a honkin' big USSR-come-Russian unit just ended up not leaving Moldova), so it may not be even as "simple" as bringing UKR under the umbrella.


Cut losses and apply to current-year as a write-off.


----------



## HiTechComms

KevinB said:


> The red strip area is where I see Vlad accepting nothing less.
> The green is a still really wants - and lets me honest he won't be happy till he's rolled back to putting a Wall back up in Germany...
> 
> View attachment 69178
> When does the world say enough?


Yeah seems like its accurate assessment. Russia needs Crimea and a portion of mainland because they need the river to supply water otherwise they need to import via pipeline. I believe Ukraine damned the river and pissed the Russians off. Donbas (very poor) I don't think Russians want it they will let them have independence. Annexation might not happen for them, Maybe useful idiots strategy?

As for Odesa. I think that will be a major conflict there as Ukraine would be completely cut off from the Black sea, this would be a economic disaster. I think there will be fierce fighting there.  Unless the Russians just want to blockade for now.

The area Mykolaviv, Kropyvnyskyi regions are also now at play as there was recent exploration done by I think Shell and other petro type companies that found possible gas reserves. This is a problem for Russians as they are a petro state. Ukraine becoming a intermediate petro state is a giant problem for Russia.  I also believe that a Russian pipeline runs through that region and through Moldova which is why I think strategically is now a target as well.

I simply don't think 200k troops is enough to hold the proposed land area. 

The west has done all it can with out triggering an escalation.

Puttins demands were Crimea + Water access, Donbas, No NATO, no Nukes. The motivations might be more akin to securing certain monetary interests like pipeline and denying gas resources to Ukraine.


----------



## KevinB

1st Armored Brigade Combat Team from 3rd ID departs for Germany 



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499837195456327692


----------



## Czech_pivo

HiTechComms said:


> I have read some of those authors not those particular books. Solzhenitsyn is amazing. Do you mean Ayn Rand?
> 
> I had the pleasure of growing up behind the iron curtain.
> I am more familiar with Russian ideologies and motives then most I also have more skin in the game since most of my family is still in Poland. Not that I don't think I need more reference of Russian motivations but having more information is better.


Question - if you say you had the 'pleasure' of growing up behind the Iron Curtain (which fell in Nov of 1989) and your a Jr. Officer or Officer cadet (sorry guys if I'm using the wrong terms, mea culpa) I don't think you would have much direct knowledge/experience in remembering life before 1989.....as this year marks the 33rd yr since the fall of the Iron Curtain. 

To have any real, meaningful experiences, like attending school and seeing pictures of Jaruzelski and/or Lenin on the wall of your classroom,  standing for hours in line to buy kielbasa or new shoes, of experiencing brown-outs when the electricity would go off unexpectedly, of Martial Law, you'd have to be significantly older, like over the age of 40 at a minimum..... So which is it?  Under the age of 33 or over the age of 40? 

Growing up in Poland after 1991 is nowhere near the same experience as growing up in say 1981.....  As someone who used to listen to Polish Priest's who were visiting Detroit in 1981, 82, 83, while sitting next to my Grandma, telling stories to us about life under Martial Law (and them openly marveling at the white bread and butter on the table) and why we needed to be collecting clothes/shoes to send back with them and my personal experiences 12-14yrs later working/living in Prague in 1995 (and traveling to Poland/Hungary for work then), it was NOT the same.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> The red strip area is where I see Vlad accepting nothing less.
> The green is a still really wants - and lets me honest he won't be happy till he's rolled back to putting a Wall back up in Germany...
> 
> View attachment 69178
> When does the world say enough?


If that is what is left of an independent Ukraine, it will be an agricultural state.


----------



## Mills Bomb

When will the world have enough? I have been pondering this as well.

I think the West made their choice.

We said we weren't going in for fear of "WWIII" as Biden put it, or more likely just a fear of nuclear weapons. What's happening now is just what that decision looks like. It's not that far off from what we could expect, we knew the Russians were old school and they'll flatten anything to complete the task, they don't care. Has anything really been terribly surprising besides the strong resistance and high Russian casualties?

Prior to the invasion kicking off there was a consensus that Ukraine wouldn't be able to hold them off. We're all hoping they can defeat the invasion but there's a real chance that Ukraine is conquered in an all out war as we watch in horror. It's looking to me like they're staging for the siege of Kyiv and Kharkev next, they may be waiting for foreign troops from potentially Belarus to soak up most of the casualties when the street fighting starts, they are taking a lot of Russians casualties so this could be a solution to prevent heavy Russian losses and keep the home front a bit happier? I don't see Russia giving up pending a miracle.

Definitely the biggest concern is that there really is no solution to this problem. Perhaps in the next era we're going to see many other small non-nuclear countries trying to join alliances as quickly as possible to avoid becoming the next targets of powerful empires, they will of course fall under the influence of the empires they join in exchange for protection, it's just too dangerous for the big powers to go to war and it seems like this is logically what that situation looks like. If I was in Moldova, Taiwan, or some of the other potential hot spots I'd definitely be very concerned, but we did see it coming to those places also and I don't think it will look much different.


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Remember, though, Moldova has its own statelet with a hockey-sock full of Russian "peacekeepers" within its borders (or, as someone smarter than me put it elsewhere in these fora, when the USSR broke up, a honkin' big USSR-come-Russian unit just ended up not leaving Moldova), so it may not be even as "simple" as bringing UKR under the umbrella.


1,500 man army.  I've am going to go out on a limb and say that they are more an 'occupational' army than a combat army.  Think German WWII 'Stomach' battalion in terms of combat effectiveness.


----------



## HiTechComms

Czech_pivo said:


> Question - if you say you had the 'pleasure' of growing up behind the Iron Curtain (which fell in Nov of 1989) and your a Jr. Officer or Officer cadet (sorry guys if I'm using the wrong terms, mea culpa) I don't think you would have much direct knowledge/experience in remembering life before 1989.....as this year marks the 33rd yr since the fall of the Iron Curtain.
> 
> To have any real, meaningful experiences, like attending school and seeing pictures of Jaruzelski and/or Lenin on the wall of your classroom,  standing for hours in line to buy kielbasa or new shoes, of experiencing brown-outs when the electricity would go off unexpectedly, of Martial Law, you'd have to be significantly older, like over the age of 40 at a minimum..... So which is it?  Under the age of 33 or over the age of 40?
> 
> Growing up in Poland after 1991 is nowhere near the same experience as growing up in say 1981.....  As someone who used to listen to Polish Priest's who were visiting Detroit in 1981, 82, 83, while sitting next to my Grandma, telling stories to us about life under Martial Law (and them openly marveling at the white bread and butter on the table) and why we needed to be collecting clothes/shoes to send back with them and my personal experiences 12-14yrs later working/living in Prague in 1995 (and traveling to Poland/Hungary for work then), it was NOT the same.


I was young.  I was a kid growing up, its not unfathomable that some one born in 80's experienced the iron curtain. The lessons from the family always stuck with me no matter what, this was reinforced by my parents after. I don't want to dox myself. I am an old fart by comparison to most.  Lets just say I lived through the Hunger demonstrations, I was to young to understand it all at the time and I though it was exciting to see tanks on the streets. Years later my parents explained to me that those same tanks were pointing guns at us.

The other scary as shit story was the polish military and police (milicja - Polish police under military/militia jurisdiction) at the time refused to fire on protestors when ordered by superiors.  The story goes that the Russian troops stationed in Poland got a hold of polish military and police uniforms and fired on the protestors. Shit just stuck with me, after immigrating after the fall of the USSR the lessons kind of stuck.  You can take a Pole out of Poland but not the Poland out of the Pole. Been back to Poland and I agree its not the same, Poland is an amazing country now in comparison, its not been an easy transition and don't think everything is perfect but it is what it is and its still hell of a lot better then being a Russian puppet.

To answer your question: Yes I am not young.


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499833528313421829
Interesting read.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499619132756668417

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499841937515425796


----------



## HiTechComms

Mills Bomb said:


> When will the world have enough? I have been pondering this as well.
> 
> I think the West made their choice.
> 
> We said we weren't going in for fear of "WWIII" as Biden put it, or more likely just a fear of nuclear weapons. What's happening now is just what that decision looks like. It's not that far off from what we could expect, we knew the Russians were old school and they'll flatten anything to complete the task, they don't care. Has anything really been terribly surprising besides the strong resistance and high Russian casualties?
> 
> Prior to the invasion kicking off there was a consensus that Ukraine wouldn't be able to hold them off. We're all hoping they can defeat the invasion but there's a real chance that Ukraine is conquered in an all out war as we watch in horror. It's looking to me like they're staging for the siege of Kyiv and Kharkev next, they may be waiting for foreign troops from potentially Belarus to soak up most of the casualties when the street fighting starts, they are taking a lot of Russians casualties so this could be a solution to prevent heavy Russian losses and keep the home front a bit happier? I don't see Russia giving up pending a miracle.
> 
> Definitely the biggest concern is that there really is no solution to this problem. Perhaps in the next era we're going to see many other small non-nuclear countries trying to join alliances as quickly as possible to avoid becoming the next targets of powerful empires, they will of course fall under the influence of the empires they join in exchange for protection, it's just too dangerous for the big powers to go to war and it seems like this is logically what that situation looks like. If I was in Moldova, Taiwan, or some of the other potential hot spots I'd definitely be very concerned, but we did see it coming to those places also and I don't think it will look much different.


I think that was always the point of alliances, Poland had a mini alliance prior to WW2 for Protection but it was to weak.

Poland learned the lesson quickly that's why they wanted into NATO because NATO simply was a Nuclear deterrent against the bigger players.

I think there is always the option of smaller alliances that rather stay out of NATO/EU/or even BRICs.  It provides some security but to due the small size and often changing political tides their effectiveness may very.

I think there is a solution its just one that no one really likes.  I think that the west is creating some future problems, I think the rise of BRICs nations should be taken more seriously.  You can catch more flys with honey then vinegar, I think west made some fundamental mistakes in the 90's but Hindsight 2020.

No Russia will not blink they are not gone pack up and go home because of sanctions or protests. Historically this should be evident to everyone. They suffered the most casualties during WW2 and they are proud of that because they still won, its a point of pride. Its almost seen as honorable thing to fight for Russia in the average Russians eyes. I even think that some of these sanctions on media are a mistake its just polarizing people more as a point of pride as: Russia vs Them.


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499762408491036679
Everyone prepared for the world to start burning?

Ukraine and Russia produce 30 percent of the worlds total grain


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499403716088123402


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> Arithmetic on the Frontier a la 2022
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Arithmetic on the Frontier by Rudyard Kipling
> 
> 
> Comments & analysis: A great and glorious thing it is / To learn, for seven years or so, / The Lord knows what
> 
> 
> 
> 
> allpoetry.com


And again it rhymes.


----------



## Kirkhill

HiTechComms said:


> Most slavic countries do, including Poland.


Have you been to Scotland recently?  Now there's "victimhood" for you.


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499780136601849856


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> 1,500 man army.  I've am going to go out on a limb and say that they are more an 'occupational' army than a combat army.  Think German WWII 'Stomach' battalion in terms of combat effectiveness.


Maybe, but enough to allow RUS to say NATO's now targeting an ally as well as putting Russian troops and nationals at risk.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499780136601849856


And don't think you foreigners are immune, either (RUS state media) ...


> The criminal responsibility for spreading knowingly false information about the Russian Armed Forces applies not only to Russians, but also to citizens of other countries, the head of the Duma Committee on Information Policy Alexander Khinshtein (United Russia) told reporters ...


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499843941511806980


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> ... and Scotland, of course


Snap! 

Posted then saw this!


----------



## HiTechComms

Kirkhill said:


> Have you been to Scotland recently?  Now there's "victimhood" for you.


Nope. I wanted to travel in 2020 but then you know what happened. Sucks. 

I have a hard time with the victim mentality. I understand it but doesn't subscribe to it.  It always turns into Oppression Olympics.


----------



## Kirkhill

HiTechComms said:


> Is that a White delivery van? Is this ford transit van to delivering weapons as the Toyota Truck to a technical? heh


Camouflage works best if it blends with the environment.

There is probably a blue and yellow ribbon somewhere.


----------



## HiTechComms

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499762408491036679
> Everyone prepared for the world to start burning?
> 
> Ukraine and Russia produce 30 percent of the worlds total grain


Russia is also one of the worlds biggest supplier of fertilizer. 

On another note.
Historically speaking after a pandemic there is usually a large scale conflict.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499805417408503811


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499762408491036679
> Everyone prepared for the world to start burning?
> 
> Ukraine and Russia produce 30 percent of the worlds total grain


Get your bingo cards out folks.  

Remember, I've got bubonic plague and mid-sized meteorite striking large urban area for 2022.


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499762408491036679
> Everyone prepared for the world to start burning?
> 
> Ukraine and Russia produce 30 percent of the worlds total grain



You had me right up until your opening comment.

Nothing is ever as bad as people fear.

People are generally rational actors.


----------



## Altair

The Bread Guy said:


> And don't think you foreigners are immune, either (RUS state media) ...


Well, shouldn't be too much of a problem. 

There is no war in Ukraine, right? Just a special operation.


----------



## Altair

Kirkhill said:


> You had me right up until your opening comment.
> 
> Nothing is ever as bad as people fear.
> 
> People are generally rational actors.


Hungry people are not rational actors. Especially in fragile nations in the middle east. 

I can see Lebanon and Tunisia being particularly vulnerable.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Altair said:


> Well, shouldn't be too much of a problem.
> 
> There is no war in Ukraine, right? Just a special operation.


And don't you forget it, comrade!


----------



## Kirkhill

HiTechComms said:


> Russia is also one of the worlds biggest supplier of fertilizer.



Exellent, Saskatchewan's Potash stocks should offset that Covid nonsense


----------



## HiTechComms

Altair said:


> Hungry people are not rational actors. Especially in fragile nations in the middle east.
> 
> I can see Lebanon and Tunisia being particularly vulnerable.


Ironically 

“Every society is three meals away from chaos”
― Vladimir Lenin


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499852381835698188


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> Hungry people are not rational actors. Especially in fragile nations in the middle east.
> 
> I can see Lebanon and Tunisia being particularly vulnerable.



Hungry people are supremely rational actors.  They will do whatever it takes to feed their families.  If you give them food they will not kill you.


----------



## HiTechComms

Kirkhill said:


> Exellent, Saskatchewan's Potash stocks should offset that Covid nonsense
> 
> 
> View attachment 69181


Sask Potash made me a lot of money about 20 years ago. What covid nonsense are you referring too?  Don't currently hold any stocks in it. Although I just made of like a Bandit on Enbridge stock


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499852381835698188


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499852381835698188


God speed to them, I hope they have enough air dominance to do so


----------



## Czech_pivo

daftandbarmy said:


>


----------



## Kirkhill

HiTechComms said:


> What covid nonsense are you referring too?



The comedy of the last two years.


----------



## Altair

Kirkhill said:


> Hungry people are supremely rational actors.  They will do whatever it takes to feed their families.  If you give them food they will not kill you.


lots of countries will either not be able to afford staples or have pass on the higher costs to the people who cannot afford those higher prices. 

Which means those in power are are going to have a hell of a time.


----------



## Kirkhill

That, I can agree with.

It is not a good time to be a dictator.


----------



## Remius

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499852381835698188





MilEME09 said:


> God speed to them, I hope they have enough air dominance to do so


That may be why they are going now.  Reports are that they still have plenty of assets for that.


----------



## dapaterson

Don't expect the UK to do anything to address the problems of London regarding the Russian elites.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499773671208099842


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> God speed to them, I hope they have enough air dominance to do so


----------



## Czech_pivo

Defence Minister Anita Anand has sent rocket launchers, hand grenades, sniper rifles, carbines, pistols, body armour and 1.5 million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine's military — and *she's promised to send more materiel from the Canada supply chest, if necessary.*

Are we finally unloading that last batch of Ross rifles that’s lying around in the back corner?  If not, what can we really have left to give pass over?

I’m waiting to see some pics of some Ukrainian Territorials kitted out with some of our C6’s, some LAWs and body armour posting on Twitters pics of dead Russians and POW’s beside burning IFV’s. Let’s see what the NDP and the woke masses have to say about that…..


----------



## Furniture

Just found out a guy I know, former CAF member,  is on the ground in Ukraine as a member of a foreign volunteer unit.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Furniture said:


> Just found out a guy I know, former CAF member,  is on the ground in Ukraine as a member of a foreign volunteer unit.


God Speed to him and those with him.


----------



## MilEME09

Furniture said:


> Just found out a guy I know, former CAF member,  is on the ground in Ukraine as a member of a foreign volunteer unit.


National Post just did a interview with an EX R22R sniper who went over. Didn't use his real name but crosses into Poland and is being organized into one of the foreign battalions


----------



## McG

KevinB said:


> Shocked, I am not
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499827074688761857
> Anyone who thinks the Russians will stop in the Ukraine is on crack...


Of course. Belarus already briefed the Russian plans map to the UN, and the red invasion arrow went right into Moldova.


----------



## Spencer100

Czech_pivo said:


> Question - if you say you had the 'pleasure' of growing up behind the Iron Curtain (which fell in Nov of 1989) and your a Jr. Officer or Officer cadet (sorry guys if I'm using the wrong terms, mea culpa) I don't think you would have much direct knowledge/experience in remembering life before 1989.....as this year marks the 33rd yr since the fall of the Iron Curtain.
> 
> To have any real, meaningful experiences, like attending school and seeing pictures of Jaruzelski and/or Lenin on the wall of your classroom,  standing for hours in line to buy kielbasa or new shoes, of experiencing brown-outs when the electricity would go off unexpectedly, of Martial Law, you'd have to be significantly older, like over the age of 40 at a minimum..... So which is it?  Under the age of 33 or over the age of 40?
> 
> Growing up in Poland after 1991 is nowhere near the same experience as growing up in say 1981.....  As someone who used to listen to Polish Priest's who were visiting Detroit in 1981, 82, 83, while sitting next to my Grandma, telling stories to us about life under Martial Law (and them openly marveling at the white bread and butter on the table) and why we needed to be collecting clothes/shoes to send back with them and my personal experiences 12-14yrs later working/living in Prague in 1995 (and traveling to Poland/Hungary for work then), it was NOT the same.


This is one is just for you....thing get heated here and its Friday....so 






The Post in Detroit.  I was there and River Rock the night the Wings won the cup. 

This post was just a diversion so every one can put a smile on their face.  I think Czech P was around at the time.


----------



## Remius

MilEME09 said:


> National Post just did a interview with an EX R22R sniper who went over. Didn't use his real name but crosses into Poland and is being organized into one of the foreign battalions


I just saw CNN interview him.  I also saw them interview another small group of Americans and a Brit that did not look very well geared up or prepared.  They were trying to figure out how to get to the border. 

It’s going to be an interesting mix of trained and untrained.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499833528313421829


----------



## Czech_pivo

Spencer100 said:


> This is one is just for you....thing get heated here and its Friday....so
> 
> 
> View attachment 69185
> 
> View attachment 69186
> 
> The Post in Detroit.  I was there and River Rock the night the Wings won the cup.
> 
> This post was just a diversion so every one can put a smile on their face.  I think Czech P was around at the time.


Ok, we've got to either know each other or have many, many friends in common.

I'm certain my name can still be found in some dark corner written on the ceiling or wall!

Answer me this, if you will - what high school did you go to?  I went to KCI.


----------



## Mills Bomb

Does anyone have additional source on the Ukrainian counter offensive? 

I'm still crossing my fingers for a miracle and this works out, maybe it's the perfect time, if they can fend them off now they will buy a lot more time as Russia will need to mobilize another army if this one fails the mission.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499858895296208903


----------



## Remius

Mills Bomb said:


> Does anyone have additional source on the Ukrainian counter offensive?
> 
> I'm still crossing my fingers for a miracle and this works out, maybe it's the perfect time, if they can fend them off now they will buy a lot more time as Russia will need to mobilize another army if this one fails the mission.


Nothing more than what’s on OSINT.  I suspect we’ll know when it it actually happens.


----------



## HiTechComms

Kirkhill said:


> The comedy of the last two years.


I thought we were forbidden on making jokes on this


----------



## Kirkhill

HiTechComms said:


> I thought we were forbidden on making jokes on this



I haven't got the memo.


----------



## Jarnhamar

HiTechComms said:


> No better way to sway Russian people then by punishing people for the actions of a State they have no control over.. Really really good material for propaganda machine in Russia.



There's 144 million people in Russia. If they don't like it they can vote in a new president one way or another.


----------



## Mills Bomb

Remius said:


> Nothing more than what’s on OSINT.  I suspect we’ll know when it it actually happens.



Roger. Hoping for good news but we will know soon. 

It certainly looks like the Ukrainian mud is bogging the Russians down in a lot of the newest photos coming from operations. I guess spring is coming early. 

If it's true that Xi asked Putin to hold off on the invasion until the olympics were completed as some MSN sources are saying, or if he made that decision himself, it seems he may have screwed up royally missing the best window for an invasion with frozen ground. The ground is warming up now it looks like. The Germans could have told them this was a bad idea! 

If they pull this off I imagine it's going to be difficult for Russia to mount another ground offensive once the spring mud arrives in full force.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499424790146428931
Mobile cremation to hide losses


----------



## HiTechComms

Jarnhamar said:


> There's 144 million people in Russia. If they don't like it they can vote in a new president one way or another.


I they they are allowed to have elections and not martial law imposed on them indefinitely. Time will tell.


----------



## HiTechComms

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499424790146428931
> Mobile cremation to hide losses


Old news sadly. Those pictures were out a long time ago.


----------



## Remius

Mills Bomb said:


> Roger. Hoping for good news but we will know soon.
> 
> It certainly looks like the Ukrainian mud is bogging the Russians down in a lot of the newest photos coming from operations. I guess spring is coming early.
> 
> If it's true that Xi asked Putin to hold off on the invasion until the olympics were completed as some MSN sources are saying, or if he made that decision himself, it seems he may have screwed up royally missing the best window for an invasion with frozen ground. The ground is warming up now it looks like. The Germans could have told them this was a bad idea!
> 
> If they pull this off I imagine it's going to be difficult for Russia to mount another ground offensive once the spring mud arrives in full force.


Imagine the morale boos to UKR but also the massive blow to Russian Morale if something like that succeeded.


----------



## kev994

Remius said:


> It’s going to be an interesting mix of trained and untrained.


I think some of these guys don’t know what they’re getting into, this ain’t Call of Duty.


----------



## MilEME09

kev994 said:


> I think some of these guys don’t know what they’re getting into, this ain’t Call of Duty.


Hey you never know, read a story of a Ukrainian grocery store clerk who now has 4 tank kills under his belt with NLAWs.


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499424790146428931
> Mobile cremation to hide losses


Saying this to a Jewish man in Ukraine, who’s grandfather lost 3 brothers to the Nazi’s is f$&*ing mind blowing to me.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Remius said:


> Imagine the morale boos to UKR but also the massive blow to Russian Morale if something like that succeeded.


Imagine the morale boos to UKR but also the massive blow to Russian Morale if _when _something like that succeeded

Fixed this for you,


----------



## Remius

Czech_pivo said:


> Imagine the morale boos to UKR but also the massive blow to Russian Morale if _when _something like that succeeded
> 
> Fixed this for you,


I don’t want to make assumptions based on a Twitter post but yes.


----------



## Jarnhamar

HiTechComms said:


> I they they are allowed to have elections and not martial law imposed on them indefinitely. Time will tell.


Even taking into consideration Russia's 786,240 police officers and 1,012,000 soldiers that still leaves 142,201,760 civilians who can Zerg Rush the shit out of things.

If Russians aren't willing to risk their life to change their government then they can enjoy the sanctions.


----------



## ModlrMike

Jarnhamar said:


> Even taking into consideration Russia's 786,240 police officers and 1,012,000 soldiers that still leaves 142,201,760 civilians who can Zerg Rush the shit out of things.
> 
> If Russians aren't willing to risk their life to change their government then they can enjoy the sanctions.


This presumes that all 1.8M of those uniforms will side with the government. Particularly, those at the top of their respective organizations.


----------



## HiTechComms

Jarnhamar said:


> Even taking into consideration Russia's 786,240 police officers and 1,012,000 soldiers that still leaves 142,201,760 civilians who can Zerg Rush the shit out of things.
> 
> If Russians aren't willing to risk their life to change their government then they can enjoy the sanctions.


I agree protests are crucial to a democracy but then again they can be crushed.  
I am not sure the results will be what we think they will be. Not going to assume as I don't live in Russia. 
Punishing civilian population that had a not bad life previous to the war, it  just might be hey look at the west its US vs THEM, they might just say no western anything cause they will cripple us we need to build our own. Russians know how to propaganda and now that both sides pretty well much blocked each others media its hard to tell what is going on. BRICs might become a bigger player in the world arena, they will strive towards a parallel economies.  Its all in the air and conjecture. 
Wait and see. We can hope for the best but prepare for the worst.


----------



## KevinB

and Russia being Russia 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499863194575200268


----------



## suffolkowner

Moldova should cut a deal with Transdniestra and join NATO while the iron is hot just like the west/Ukraine should have cut a deal on Crimea and the Donbass but unfortunately I don't think the Ukrainians had the leverage or believed that it would come to this. I'm sure most of NATO would wish to turn the clock back and take a harder line and greater support for Ukraine from 2014 to 2022. On the other hand as long as Ukraine holds out every truck, fighter jet, tank and AFV taken out is a huge cost on Russia and as much as Ukraine is suffering the cost to NATO as a whole is much less


----------



## TacticalTea

Remius said:


> Nothing more than what’s on OSINT.  I suspect we’ll know when it it actually happens.


The anticipation is killing me!

Imagine if they can break the siege of Kharkiv, turn around, and retake Kherson? Restore the Dniepr line, that'd be amazing.



Jarnhamar said:


> Even taking into consideration Russia's 786,240 police officers and 1,012,000 soldiers that still leaves 142,201,760 civilians who can Zerg Rush the shit out of things.
> 
> If Russians aren't willing to risk their life to change their government then they can enjoy the sanctions.


Similarly, if Europeans aren't willing to risk their economic growth to defund Russia's O&G-financed war chest, they can enjoy living next to the new Soviet Union.


----------



## MilEME09

Well this explains why Ukraines air force is gaining the upper hand


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499879697144029187


----------



## Mills Bomb

Ukraine is staging counter-attacks against Russian troops, official says
					

'Help to us is increasing every minute and the strength of the enemy is decreasing every minute,' official says; Kyiv's top diplomat says Germany vowed to send more weapons to support the fight against invading Russian forces




					www.ynetnews.com
				




One more article on mounting counter-offensives.


----------



## MilEME09

Mills Bomb said:


> Ukraine is staging counter-attacks against Russian troops, official says
> 
> 
> 'Help to us is increasing every minute and the strength of the enemy is decreasing every minute,' official says; Kyiv's top diplomat says Germany vowed to send more weapons to support the fight against invading Russian forces
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ynetnews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> One more article on mounting counter-offensives.


Still an unknown factor where any counter attacks are occurring, first source said Kharkiv but there seems to be more pressing concerns in the south.


----------



## Pieman

For those looking to join up with the Ukraine International Legion, you can start here: INTERNATIONAL LEGION FOR THE TERRITORIAL DEFENSE OF UKRAINE – Just another WordPress site

I'm still semi-seriously looking into it. I have heard of other Sappers who say they are going.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> and Russia being Russia
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499863194575200268


When you spell TARGET as PRESS.

Not a bug but a feature.


----------



## Kirkhill

TacticalTea said:


> The anticipation is killing me!
> 
> Imagine if they can break the siege of Kharkiv, turn around, and retake Kherson? Restore the Dniepr line, that'd be amazing.
> 
> 
> Similarly, if Europeans aren't willing to risk their economic growth to defund Russia's O&G-financed war chest, they can enjoy living next to the new Soviet Union.




Man, it's only Day 9.  Have another cup of tea.


----------



## Altair

Pieman said:


> For those looking to join up with the Ukraine International Legion, you can start here: INTERNATIONAL LEGION FOR THE TERRITORIAL DEFENSE OF UKRAINE – Just another WordPress site
> 
> I'm still semi-seriously looking into it. I have heard of other Sappers who say they are going.


I'm looking for where it says that people need training or they are liabilities. 

Looking....


Looking....


----------



## TacticalTea

Kirkhill said:


> Man, it's only Day 9.  Have another cup of tea.


It's the 21st century, war can be pretty fast...

I'm of the opinion contingencies for such events should be prepared in advance so that all possible measures are taken on Day 1, maximizing their duration and effect.

But that's me. I know there's also the idea of slow-rolling it out, so that there's good news every day for UKR and bad news every day for RUS. But I'd rather those good and bad news come as consequences of the aforementioned measures, and not in the form of the measures themselves.

But hey, maybe that's just my MARS mind trying to stay ahead of the ship of State, which for political / diplomatic reasons may be impossible in actuality.


----------



## Pieman

> I'm looking for where it says that people need training or they are liabilities.


Lots of people are needed in support roles, I'm sure. Plus, there are untrained civilians picking up rifles. So it's more like joining a resistance force than a professional army, I suspect.


----------



## TacticalTea

Pieman said:


> For those looking to join up with the Ukraine International Legion, you can start here: INTERNATIONAL LEGION FOR THE TERRITORIAL DEFENSE OF UKRAINE – Just another WordPress site
> 
> I'm still semi-seriously looking into it. I have heard of other Sappers who say they are going.


Friday, toast of the day: "To a bloody war and a sickly season", and we just got out of sickly season.






Been wondering myself if I'd be a liability or an asset as someone who's only been Navy.


----------



## Colin Parkinson




----------



## KevinB

TacticalTea said:


> Friday, toast of the day: "To a bloody war and a sickly season", and we just got out of sickly season.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Been wondering myself if I'd be a liability or an asset as someone who's only been Navy.


Are you fit? 
  Can you see? 

If my boss would keep paying me, I’d head over in a heartbeat. 
   Kids and Mortgage, means that isn’t a possibility unless someone raises a Private Army (hmm maybe I should get a PowerBall Ticket - Kevin’s Own Irregulars has a nice ring to it.)


----------



## daftandbarmy

TacticalTea said:


> Friday, toast of the day: "To a bloody war and a sickly season", and we just got out of sickly season.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Been wondering myself if I'd be a liability or an asset as someone who's only been Navy.



“Beware the Jabberwock, my son
The jaws that bite, the claws that catch!
Beware the Jubjub bird, and shun
The frumious Bandersnatch!”
― Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking-Glass and What Alice Found There



Russia warns pro-Ukraine foreign fighters won't get POW status, will be criminals​Konashenkov warns that pro-Ukrainian fighters won't be considered combatants in accordance with international humanitarian law or become prisoners of war.​Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov warned that foreign fighters in Ukraine will not be afforded the rights given to lawful combatants according to international humanitarian law (IHL) as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed what he claimed amounted to 16,000 foreign volunteers to the International Legion of Territorial Defense Forces of Ukraine on Thursday.

"I wish to make an official statement that none of the mercenaries the West is sending to Ukraine to fight for the nationalist regime in Kyiv can be considered as combatants in accordance with international humanitarian law or enjoy the status of prisoners of war," Konashenkov said on Thursday, according to Russian state media outlet TASS. "At best, they can expect to be prosecuted as criminals. We are urging all foreign citizens who may have plans to go and fight for Kyiv’s nationalist regime to think a dozen times before getting on the way."










						Russia warns pro-Ukraine foreign fighters will be treated as criminals
					

Konashenkov warns that pro-Ukrainian fighters won't be considered combatants in accordance with international humanitarian law or become prisoners of war.




					www.jpost.com


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> Are you fit?
> Can you see?
> 
> If my boss would keep paying me, I’d head over in a heartbeat.
> Kids and Mortgage, means that isn’t a possibility unless someone raises a Private Army (hmm maybe I should get a PowerBall Ticket - Kevin’s Own Irregulars has a nice ring to it.)


This WW1 again? Have the money so you raise your own regiment?


----------



## Good2Golf

But Wagner Group in the Donbas are
A.O.K. , got it.


----------



## Dana381

KevinB said:


> Shocked, I am not
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499827074688761857
> Anyone who thinks the Russians will stop in the Ukraine is on crack...



I can't help but think just what is Putin saving his better soldiers for. all reports say these are green conscripts. Surely he has some better trained soldiers he is saving for something else. 

Also he seems to be saving his best air assets and ad assets. We haven't seen him use s400 or s500 if it's ready yet.

The Ukraine invasion looks to me like the appetizer and he is saving his best for the main course. whatever it is/was it is surely bigger than/tougher than Ukraine was supposed to be.


----------



## MilEME09

Good2Golf said:


> But Wagner Group in the Donbas are
> A.O.K. , got it.


Didn't sat it was, in fact I love the idea, now getting funding might be tricky


----------



## suffolkowner

daftandbarmy said:


> “Beware the Jabberwock, my son
> The jaws that bite, the claws that catch!
> Beware the Jubjub bird, and shun
> The frumious Bandersnatch!”
> ― Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking-Glass and What Alice Found There
> 
> 
> 
> Russia warns pro-Ukraine foreign fighters won't get POW status, will be criminals​Konashenkov warns that pro-Ukrainian fighters won't be considered combatants in accordance with international humanitarian law or become prisoners of war.​Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov warned that foreign fighters in Ukraine will not be afforded the rights given to lawful combatants according to international humanitarian law (IHL) as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed what he claimed amounted to 16,000 foreign volunteers to the International Legion of Territorial Defense Forces of Ukraine on Thursday.
> 
> "I wish to make an official statement that none of the mercenaries the West is sending to Ukraine to fight for the nationalist regime in Kyiv can be considered as combatants in accordance with international humanitarian law or enjoy the status of prisoners of war," Konashenkov said on Thursday, according to Russian state media outlet TASS. "At best, they can expect to be prosecuted as criminals. We are urging all foreign citizens who may have plans to go and fight for Kyiv’s nationalist regime to think a dozen times before getting on the way."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia warns pro-Ukraine foreign fighters will be treated as criminals
> 
> 
> Konashenkov warns that pro-Ukrainian fighters won't be considered combatants in accordance with international humanitarian law or become prisoners of war.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.jpost.com



Sick Altair on them


----------



## Remius

While I applaud anyone volunteering there are a lot of risks.

Trained pers will likely be useful.  Especially former SOF types I would gather.  Untrained present issues.  The Ukrainian ambassador in Australia already warmed Australians without training to rethink coming. 

Also this article explains some of the pitfalls and why this conflict is nothing like fighting insurgents. 









						Foreign fighters in Ukraine? Evaluating the benefits and risks
					

Daniel Byman examines the war in Ukraine in the context of jihadi conflicts and offers some lessons to consider about any future role for foreign fighters.




					www.brookings.edu
				




It will be awesome to hear about Hector the mailman from Tennesse blowing up a BMP,  but those stories won’t be the norm. 

And I doubt that Russia will acknowledge foreign fighters as legit and will deal with them summarily.


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> This WW1 again? Have the money so you raise your own regiment?


No need to go that far back. Private regiments were a thing in Ukraine from 2014 until... I wanna say 2017-18?

At any rate, yeah, it is expected that you buy your own gear - minus gun - before flying out to Poland.


daftandbarmy said:


> “Beware the Jabberwock, my son
> The jaws that bite, the claws that catch!
> Beware the Jubjub bird, and shun
> The frumious Bandersnatch!”
> ― Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking-Glass and What Alice Found There
> 
> 
> 
> Russia warns pro-Ukraine foreign fighters won't get POW status, will be criminals​Konashenkov warns that pro-Ukrainian fighters won't be considered combatants in accordance with international humanitarian law or become prisoners of war.​Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov warned that foreign fighters in Ukraine will not be afforded the rights given to lawful combatants according to international humanitarian law (IHL) as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed what he claimed amounted to 16,000 foreign volunteers to the International Legion of Territorial Defense Forces of Ukraine on Thursday.
> 
> "I wish to make an official statement that none of the mercenaries the West is sending to Ukraine to fight for the nationalist regime in Kyiv can be considered as combatants in accordance with international humanitarian law or enjoy the status of prisoners of war," Konashenkov said on Thursday, according to Russian state media outlet TASS. "At best, they can expect to be prosecuted as criminals. We are urging all foreign citizens who may have plans to go and fight for Kyiv’s nationalist regime to think a dozen times before getting on the way."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia warns pro-Ukraine foreign fighters will be treated as criminals
> 
> 
> Konashenkov warns that pro-Ukrainian fighters won't be considered combatants in accordance with international humanitarian law or become prisoners of war.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.jpost.com


Yeah, mercenary life ain't nice, that's for sure. Same shit for anyone fighting against ISIS, or even for Russians (Wagner getting obliterated by American air support)


KevinB said:


> Are you fit?
> Can you see?
> 
> If my boss would keep paying me, I’d head over in a heartbeat.
> Kids and Mortgage, means that isn’t a possibility unless someone raises a Private Army (hmm maybe I should get a PowerBall Ticket - Kevin’s Own Irregulars has a nice ring to it.)


Yeah, no one to leave behind and no house to care for. I did just buy a car, tho, so I'd hate to never get to drive it much haha


----------



## Fabius

If the foreign nationals are formally enrolled into a UKR service and uniformed and identified as a formed UKR unit does Russia really have a option in abiding by the LOAC? 
I mean they can ignore it at will and it will cost them whatever that might be, but would the pers in the UKR units be illegal combatants? 
Somehow I doubt it.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Altair said:


> I'm looking for where it says that people need training or they are liabilities.



Someone without training will be a liability. Ukraine may happily weight the risk of untrained people with guns against having more people on the field, especially citizens from NATO countries.


----------



## Kirkhill

Fabius said:


> If the foreign nationals are formally enrolled into a UKR service and uniformed and identified as a formed UKR unit does Russia really have a option in abiding by the LOAC?
> I mean they can ignore it at will and it will cost them whatever that might be, but would the pers in the UKR units be illegal combatants?
> Somehow I doubt it.



How about Canadians and other foreigners employed by the USMC and working towards their US citizenship?   Are they ineligible for combat?

Or Samoans in the Scots Guards?


----------



## MilEME09

Jarnhamar said:


> Someone without training will be a liability. Ukraine may happily weight the risk of untrained people with guns against having more people on the field, especially citizens from NATO countries.


Uniformed combatants are protected by the LOAC, Russia saying they won't honor it for foreign fighters is essentially saying they will commit a war crime.


----------



## suffolkowner

These two articles detail the weapon deliveries to Ukraine









						Pictures and Video: The West Is Giving Thousands of Tank and Aircraft-Busting Missiles to Ukraine
					

The West is delivering an unprecedented quantity of military assistance to Ukraine as it seeks to defend against invading Russian troops.




					www.19fortyfive.com
				












						Putin Has A Problem: Ukraine Is Getting an Arsenal of Weapons from the West
					

Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has shocked many countries into departing long-standing neutrality policies and are donating weapons.




					www.19fortyfive.com


----------



## Remius

MilEME09 said:


> Uniformed combatants are protected by the LOAC, Russia saying they won't honor it for foreign fighters is essentially saying they will commit a war crime.


As opposed the the rules they are currently adhering to?  I don’t think they care.


----------



## HiTechComms

Dana381 said:


> I can't help but think just what is Putin saving his better soldiers for. all reports say these are green conscripts. Surely he has some better trained soldiers he is saving for something else.
> 
> Also he seems to be saving his best air assets and ad assets. We haven't seen him use s400 or s500 if it's ready yet.
> 
> The Ukraine invasion looks to me like the appetizer and he is saving his best for the main course. whatever it is/was it is surely bigger than/tougher than Ukraine was supposed to be.


Russian military doctrine, throw old equipment and least trained. Use encircling tactic, stay out of effective range of weapons move up the main assault units up.


----------



## HiTechComms

Kirkhill said:


> How about Canadians and other foreigners employed by the USMC and working towards their US citizenship?   Are they ineligible for combat?
> 
> Or Samoans in the Scots Guards?


I believe you still need a green card?


----------



## MilEME09

HiTechComms said:


> Russian military doctrine, throw old equipment and least trained. Use encircling tactic, stay out of effective range of weapons move up the main assault units up.


Except they aren't attempting encirclement as a primary tactic, they are launching not stop front assaults in most areas.


----------



## Kirkhill

HiTechComms said:


> I believe you still need a green card?



I'll bet the Ukrainians could supply a rainbow card if it would make a difference.


----------



## Dana381

MilEME09 said:


> Except they aren't attempting encirclement as a primary tactic, they are launching not stop front assaults in most areas.



It looks like encircling to me, they attacked from multiple sides at once. They attacked from Crimea, donbass, Belarus, and Odessa pretty much at the same time.


----------



## SupersonicMax

HiTechComms said:


> I believe you still need a green card?


This has to do with their right to work in the US. It has nothing to do with their combatant status.


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> Didn't sat it was, in fact I love the idea, now getting funding might be tricky


Oh, not, not meant direct to you MilEME09.  More a reinforcement of the sheer hypocrisy of the Russians…this, or shelling a nuke plant and saying other Ukes made them donut, etc…


----------



## Kirkhill

Good2Golf said:


> Oh, not, not meant direct to you MilEME09.  More a reinforcement of the sheer hypocrisy of the Russians…this, or shelling a nuke plant and saying other Ukes made them donut, etc…


G2G

Phone, thumbs or bottle?  Hunh?


----------



## TacticalTea

Dana381 said:


> It looks like encircling to me, they attacked from multiple sides at once. They attacked from Crimea, donbass, Belarus, and Odessa pretty much at the same time.


So far, they have not done anything to Odessa.


----------



## RangerRay

daftandbarmy said:


> ... and Scotland, of course


Nah, just Mel Gibson.


----------



## kev994




----------



## The Bread Guy

suffolkowner said:


> *Moldova should cut a deal with Transdniestra* and join NATO while the iron is hot *just like the west/Ukraine should have cut a deal on Crimea and the Donbass* ...


In both those situations, I'm guessing the non-occupied power might be reluctant to just give up big chunks of land, and the occupied power might be reluctant to get back together with the non-occupied power.  Sounds simple, but likely wouldn't be easy.

Meanwhile, Canada's UN envoy says can't have a no-fly zone because RUS would be unlikely to play ???


> Canada's ambassador to the United Nations says a no-fly zone to protect Ukrainians from Russian aerial bombardment would need a buy-in from the Russians themselves to have any meaningful effect.
> 
> Bob Rae said a no-fly zone "is obviously a wonderful thing if it happens, but it requires a degree of consensus that simply doesn't exist in this situation." ...


Is that really the best excuse they've got?  At least the foreign minister said they worried about Putin's irrationality.


----------



## The Bread Guy

daftandbarmy said:


> Russia warns pro-Ukraine foreign fighters won't get POW status, will be criminals​Konashenkov warns that pro-Ukrainian fighters won't be considered combatants in accordance with international humanitarian law or become prisoners of war.​(...)


With points to Haggis for hitting the nail squarely on the head for this one ....


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> In both those situations, I'm guessing the non-occupied power might be reluctant to just give up big chunks of land, and the occupied power might be reluctant to get back together with the non-occupied power.  Sounds simple, but likely wouldn't be easy.
> 
> Meanwhile, Canada's UN envoy says can't have a no-fly zone because RUS would be unlikely to play ???
> 
> Is that really the best excuse they've got?  At least the foreign minister said they worried about Putin's irrationality.


Of course Russia wouldn't play, that's the whole point in needing the no fly zone. Frak, I get it, shooting down Russian planes gets us to WW3, and potentially nukes flying.

What's the alternative, Russia taking Ukraine, Moldova, Finland? Are we willing to sacrifice every non aligned nation on Russia border?


----------



## suffolkowner

The Bread Guy said:


> In both those situations, I'm guessing the non-occupied power might be reluctant to just give up big chunks of land, and the occupied power might be reluctant to get back together with the non-occupied power.  Sounds simple, but likely wouldn't be easy.
> 
> Meanwhile, Canada's UN envoy says can't have a no-fly zone because RUS would be unlikely to play ???
> 
> Is that really the best excuse they've got?  At least the foreign minister said they worried about Putin's irrationality.



shouldn't have been that hard to walk away from territory you're probably not getting back especially with repect to Moldova. Transdniestra can keep all the east bank land and give back that on the right get recognized and Moldova can then move to NATO

What's the status on the transfering of fighters to Ukraine and why it didn't happen again?


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499926414262521860

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499810298211012613


----------



## The Bread Guy

suffolkowner said:


> ... Transdniestra can keep all the east bank land and give back that on the right get recognized and Moldova can then move to NATO ...


If Russia has 1500 "peacekeepers" there to make sure Moldova stays truly neutral and away from Transdnistria, you think Russia really wants independence for the east bank?  And that they'll be willing to let that happen, especially these days?  You're more optimistic than I am.

Meanwhile, can this be even close to correct?








						Ukraine: Foreign fighters ‘offered £1,500 a day to fight against Russia’
					

Ukrainain officials have claimed 16,000 foreign soldiers have signed up to fight




					www.standard.co.uk
				




Also, CBC hitting the pause button on reporting from Russia








						Canada's CBC says it has temporarily suspended reporting from the ground in Russia
					

The Canadian Broadcasting Corp said on Friday it had temporarily suspended its reporting from the ground in Russia, citing a new law that could mean jail for those found to be intentionally spreading "fake" news.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## TheProfessional

Russian State propaganda explaining the war to kids.


----------



## suffolkowner

The Bread Guy said:


> If Russia has 1500 "peacekeepers" there to make sure Moldova stays truly neutral and away from Transdnistria, you think Russia really wants independence for the east bank?  And that they'll be willing to let that happen, especially these days?  You're more optimistic than I am.
> 
> Meanwhile, can this be even close to correct?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine: Foreign fighters ‘offered £1,500 a day to fight against Russia’
> 
> 
> Ukrainain officials have claimed 16,000 foreign soldiers have signed up to fight
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.standard.co.uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Also, CBC hitting the pause button on reporting from Russia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada's CBC says it has temporarily suspended reporting from the ground in Russia
> 
> 
> The Canadian Broadcasting Corp said on Friday it had temporarily suspended its reporting from the ground in Russia, citing a new law that could mean jail for those found to be intentionally spreading "fake" news.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


I guess I'm not understanding the implications with respect to Moldova/Transdniestra/Russia?

Moldova walks away from Transdniestra a place it doesn't control anyways for NATO security. Why would Russia object to Moldova abandoning Transdniestra?


----------



## kev994

The Bread Guy said:


> Meanwhile, can this be even close to correct?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine: Foreign fighters ‘offered £1,500 a day to fight against Russia’
> 
> 
> Ukrainain officials have claimed 16,000 foreign soldiers have signed up to fight
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.standard.co.uk


Later in the article it says “up to 1000-2000” so ymmv.


----------



## Quirky

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499926414262521860



It’s a joke that Canada has any say, influence or opinion over these no-fly zone talks. What exactly would we provide besides logistical support? A CF18 over Ukraine means dead Canadian pilots.


----------



## SupersonicMax

Quirky said:


> It’s a joke that Canada has any say, influence or opinion over these no-fly zone talks. What exactly would we provide besides logistical support? A CF18 over Ukraine means dead Canadian pilots.


A solid DCA plan has multiple layers and, naturally, the risk isn’t the same for all layers.  Not all assets would be placed in a high risk area…


----------



## The Bread Guy

suffolkowner said:


> I guess I'm not understanding the implications with respect to Moldova/Transdniestra/Russia?
> 
> Moldova walks away from Transdniestra a place it doesn't control anyways for NATO security. Why would Russia object to Moldova abandoning Transdniestra?


Based on how Russia's handling a potential NATO member on its border now, I'm thinking they'd respond the same way with Moldova snuggling up to Transdnistria.  If Russia wants that to be a thorn in Moldova's side/knife at its throat, don't think they'd like it.  I've been wrong before, so I could be wrong here, too.


----------



## dapaterson

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499913035841892354


----------



## Remius

Russia is trying to prop up the ruble ... but it's not working
					

The ruble is a free-floating currency whose value tracks supply and demand. But sanctions have demolished demand and wrecked the market.




					www.marketplace.org


----------



## suffolkowner

Remius said:


> Russia is trying to prop up the ruble ... but it's not working
> 
> 
> The ruble is a free-floating currency whose value tracks supply and demand. But sanctions have demolished demand and wrecked the market.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.marketplace.org


I dont know why they would even bother. ride it out other than grains and fuel theyre probably a pretty closed economy anyways


----------



## suffolkowner

The Bread Guy said:


> Based on how Russia's handling a potential NATO member on its border now, I'm thinking they'd respond the same way with Moldova snuggling up to Transdnistria.  If Russia wants that to be a thorn in Moldova's side/knife at its throat, don't think they'd like it.  I've been wrong before, so I could be wrong here, too.


Yeah but its only the territorial dispute that is a stickler to NATO membership and I'm sure that could be overlooked and Russia has no say anyway and once its a done deal it wont matter


----------



## KevinB

suffolkowner said:


> Yeah but its only the territorial dispute that is a stickler to NATO membership and I'm sure that could be overlooked and Russia has no say anyway and once its a done deal it wont matter


A few other things. Corruption levels etc. 

But you know as soon as Moldavia says they let got of Trans, all of Moldavia is claimed by Trans… 

It’s the Russian way.  

Either you bend over and beg for Lube or you Fight then.


----------



## Blackadder1916

suffolkowner said:


> I dont know why they would even bother. ride it out other than grains and fuel theyre probably a pretty *closed economy* anyways



Closed economy - circa 1990




Closing economy - circa 2022


----------



## OceanBonfire

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499820635194904578


----------



## Furniture

I suspect the PPC and CPC people who are "pro-Russia", are likely more "anti-whatever the government says", as that is more the sentiment I am seeing from people I know who are hardline trucker protest/PPC/Anti-government. 

There is a lot of "if the government and media are saying look here, it's just a distraction from what they are really doing" stuff going around on FB and forums.


----------



## suffolkowner

Furniture said:


> I suspect the PPC and CPC people who are "pro-Russia", are likely more "anti-whatever the government says", as that is more the sentiment I am seeing from people I know who are hardline trucker protest/PPC/Anti-government.
> 
> There is a lot of "if the government and media are saying look here, it's just a distraction from what they are really doing" stuff going around on FB and forums.


ok because my first thought was wtf


----------



## TacticalTea

The Bread Guy said:


> Meanwhile, can this be even close to correct?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine: Foreign fighters ‘offered £1,500 a day to fight against Russia’
> 
> 
> Ukrainain officials have claimed 16,000 foreign soldiers have signed up to fight
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.standard.co.uk


I don't believe it's true at all.

The figures I've seen from official sources (UKR's ministry of Foreign Affairs or Finance, don't remember which one) said it was the same pay as everyone else in the UAA; 100 000 UAH per month.


OceanBonfire said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499820635194904578


Bloc #1

Interestingly enough, Quebeccers have long been much more sympathetic to Russia/Putin than most of Canada, perhaps in part due to their shared opposition to perceived American ''imperialism''.

But, Quebeccers are also a highly volatile political group. Just have a look at federal electoral maps, you'll see massive waves almost every election (Light blue in the 90s/00s - enough to make the Bloc the 1st opposition group -, Orange in 2011, Red in 2015).

They also highly value the principles of self-determination and sovereignty, such that the same opposition to imperialism that brought them closer to Russia also made them push Russia away in the wake of its own imperialistic manoeuvring.

I agree with Furniture on his assessment of ''CPC reds''.


----------



## RangerRay

suffolkowner said:


> ok because my first thought was wtf


As a Conservative voter, I have noticed a lot of oppositional defiance disorder on the right side of the spectrum the last few years.

Add to that the Russophilia of the former President of the US and Tucker Carlson.


----------



## Furniture

RangerRay said:


> As a Conservative voter, I have noticed a lot of oppositional defiance disorder on the right side of the spectrum the last few years.
> 
> Add to that the Russophilia of the former President of the US and Tucker Carlson.


They are the outsiders, of course they are going to be more like that, it was the same for left leaning people back in the 60s, 70, and 80s.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499744192557457413
It would appear recovery is not a thing in Russian doctrine, or they didn't bring enough


----------



## armrdsoul77

Is the Russian Air Force Actually Incapable of Complex Air Operations?


----------



## RangerRay

Terry Glavin: Disinformation and the disgrace of Canada's Russia apologists, on the left and right
					

Putin and his various allies have long benefited from those in the West parroting their propaganda




					nationalpost.com


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499970041491640324

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499913748248727555
So Ukrainian farmers have more AD then the CAF...sad day


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499894935209795594
Truck tire guy again.

If this guy is accurate, I'm about to die. From laughing.

Highlights below.


No matter what kind of fuel conservation techniques they engaged in.  The 1st 17km or so of that 64 km Russian Army column is out of fuel.   They planned a 3-day operation which is in its 8th day. And given the temperatures and radio use, those vehicles have dead batteries.
As for why the Ukrainians haven't rolled up those Russian troops in a 'motti' yet.  They were busy. The Russian Hostomel airbase occupation force had to be annihilated to keep fuel from being airlifted in by helicopter.
The head of this 64km column ain't going anywhere.  With or without fuel.  The Russians can get neither fuel trucks nor wreckers there. And this "drop dead effect" is proceeding along the column from south to north. The ONLY way that column will move at all is backwards first
This is assuming it moves at all before the Ukrainians destroy it. The front and middle of the column showed up with food, fuel & ammo for 3-days, & we are  8-days into the war. The column is packed so tight that you can only refuel about 100-200 meters of column at a time via a--holes & elbow by jerry cans.  Then carefully back out those refueled trucks in order to get to the next 100 meters with the refueling truck and jerry cans.   It would take a week a month from now, when the ground dries, to unf--k this mess.
The Russians have formed the world's longest POW camp.  And the Ukrainians don't have to feed it.   There simply hasn't been anything like this in warfare since the Anglo-American Anzio beachhead in 1944.
The Russian troops in the 40-50 km of the traffic jam closest to Kyiv will run out of food before the jam can be cleared to them.   They'll have to abandon their vehicles and walk north just to get food.
I'm not saying Ukraine will win or even that Ukraine can prevent Kyiv from being encircled. I am saying the Russian Army troops in the first 50 kilometers of that 64 km column will have nothing to do with it.

Is there and effective way to neutralize Russias nukes? Because NATO can rid itself of a 80 year problem if it can.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Russia says "we're doing a ceasefire" (RUS state media)...


			https://tass.com/defense/1417117
		

... while BBC correspondent says (at least in Mariupol) "eh, not so much"

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500060668535447552


----------



## The Bread Guy

A bit of a giggle from my fave Parody account

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500052814000705537


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR Interior Minister on Facebook:  lookit all the transmissions of RUS troops outta gas we have - feel free to share! (in Ukrainian)




__ https://www.facebook.com/anton.gerashchenko.7/posts/4884151505004991
			




Also, we have this list of RUS prisoners - RUS moms, call us & come get 'em (post in Ukrainian - list attached)




__ https://www.facebook.com/anton.gerashchenko.7/posts/4886004551486353


----------



## Eye In The Sky

HiTechComms said:


> The problem is how are these people going to return if they cannot return because all their avenues of egress are closed? Did any one think of the consequences of lets ban Russian flights into Canada.


 Oh.  Right I feel so sorry for these people.   It must be the same for them as the Ukraine people who are fleeing and dying.


----------



## Jarnhamar

In Kamala Harris's defense they did ask for laymans terms. 



> So, Ukraine is a country in Europe.
> It exists next to another country called Russia
> Russia is a bigger country.
> Russia is a powerful country.
> Russia decided to invade a smaller country called Ukraine.
> So, basically, that’s wrong, and it goes against everything that we stand for.


----------



## Remius

RangerRay said:


> Terry Glavin: Disinformation and the disgrace of Canada's Russia apologists, on the left and right
> 
> 
> Putin and his various allies have long benefited from those in the West parroting their propaganda
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nationalpost.com


Interesting article.  We’ve seen similar style of apologist arguments in this thread…


----------



## dapaterson

Interesting thread.  Day 8 of an advance that was to take 3 days; running out of food, fuel and batteries; a General confusing yelling with getting anything done, and getting noticed.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499894935209795594


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500092833021243393
Admit reports of a Ukrainian counter attack, this shows up in Kharkiv, looks like the weather is getting ugly too.


----------



## OldSolduer

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500092833021243393
> Admit reports of a Ukrainian counter attack, this shows up in Kharkiv, looks like the weather is getting ugly too.



In that area of the world the snow is heavy and wet. If you’re not properly kitted out the risk of hypothermia is very real.


----------



## Quirky

What's the likelihood of NATO troops in plain clothing crossing the border to help the Ukrainians?


----------



## MilEME09

Quirky said:


> What's the likelihood of NATO troops in plain clothing crossing the border to help the Ukrainians?


I'd be willing to bet SF "volunteers" are already in Ukraine


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499894958429454342




Don't you hate it when your enemy captures your latest kit? Apparently only a company worth of these new T80s took part in the invasion


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

If I was at any higher rank level in Russia right now I'd be a little sweaty around the collar just wondering  how low the approaching cull is going to be.

This can't be Putin's fault so someone has to stand against a wall.....


----------



## tomydoom

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> If I was at any higher rank level in Russia right now I'd be a little sweaty around the collar just wondering  how low the approaching cull is going to be.
> 
> This can't be Putin's fault so someone has to stand against a wall.....


Hopefully one of those nervous generals decides that a preemptive strike is in order.


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

tomydoom said:


> Hopefully one of those nervous generals decides that a preemptive strike is in order.


Pretty sure NO ONE gets near him right now save for a few very trusted messenger types...


----------



## Remius

tomydoom said:


> Hopefully one of those nervous generals decides that a preemptive strike is in order.


Shit can in fact roll up hill in some scenarios.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Anyone have confirmed source? Seeing Social Media reports of a Rus-on-Rus friendly fire tank battle that destroyed 9 tanks just outside of Kyiv.

If this is true, it's either incompetence, dissension, or both. All of which are spectacular for the Ukrainians


----------



## armrdsoul77

Jarnhamar said:


> In Kamala Harris's defense they did ask for laymans terms.


Is it possible that's how she learned it the evening before?

‘When two countries love each other very much, they sometimes make littler countries,'” mocked Spectator USA contributing editor Stephen Miller. “‘


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500136674352848898
Looks like the Russian advance in the south west has been stopped for now


----------



## Czech_pivo

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> If I was at any higher rank level in Russia right now I'd be a little sweaty around the collar just wondering  how low the approaching cull is going to be.
> 
> This can't be Putin's fault so someone has to stand against a wall.....


The greater the sweat, the great the chance they surrender.


----------



## Quirky

rmc_wannabe said:


> Anyone have confirmed source? Seeing Social Media reports of a Rus-on-Rus friendly fire tank battle that destroyed 9 tanks just outside of Kyiv.
> 
> If this is true, it's either incompetence, dissension, or both. All of which are spectacular for the Ukrainians


Some of the information coming out this war is just crazy.  I really hope the Russian people hear the truth of what their government has done.


----------



## NavyShooter

Russian Mi-35 Turns Into Fireball and Crashes After AA Strike
					

In what is probably one of the cleanest recordings of an aircraft shootdown in current history, a Russian helicopter is seen turning into a fireball and crashing to the Earth after an anti-aircraft strike.




					funker530.com
				




A pretty impressive shoot-down video.


----------



## Altair

Unsung hero of this war.

Trent Telenko on twitter.

Praise to the truck tire guy


----------



## Haggis

Quirky said:


> What's the likelihood of NATO troops in plain clothing crossing the border to help the Ukrainians?


Ever heard of "Fight Club"?  No?  That's because we don't talk about that, either.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500149234728943616
Not so secret meeting as Israel tries to act as a mediator


----------



## HiTechComms

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500086374896185345


----------



## KevinB

Putin says Western sanctions are akin to declaration of war
					

President Vladimir Putin said on Saturday that Western sanctions on Russia were akin to a declaration of war and warned that any attempt to impose a no-fly zone in Ukraine would lead to catastrophic consequences for the world.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson

rmc_wannabe said:


> Anyone have confirmed source? Seeing Social Media reports of a Rus-on-Rus friendly fire tank battle that destroyed 9 tanks just outside of Kyiv.
> 
> If this is true, it's either incompetence, dissension, or both. All of which are spectacular for the Ukrainians


I have seen reports of it, friendly fire is a real issue in any conflict, throw in that the opposing parties speak roughly the same language, have similar uniforms, weapons and equipment, the odds of friend on friend is very high.


----------



## HiTechComms

Guess Elon is gone be the bad guy now.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499976967105433600


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> Putin says Western sanctions are akin to declaration of war
> 
> 
> President Vladimir Putin said on Saturday that Western sanctions on Russia were akin to a declaration of war and warned that any attempt to impose a no-fly zone in Ukraine would lead to catastrophic consequences for the world.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


Says it's like a declaration of war, but wouldn't dare strike NATO, his forces in Ukraine would be annihilated by their lack of air cover


----------



## rmc_wannabe

HiTechComms said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500086374896185345


Russian State Media.... hmmm. In other news, Big Foot and Bat Boy are in St. Petersburg in support of Putin.


----------



## KevinB

Colin Parkinson said:


> I have seen reports of it, friendly fire is a real issue in any conflict, throw in that the opposing parties speak roughly the same language, have similar uniforms, weapons and equipment, the odds of friend on friend is very high.


Add in Open Comms that can be spoofed and you end up engaging in blue on blue (or red on red in this case). 
   A small team could create absolute havoc with access to Russian comms and language speakers.   Textbook UW stuff.


----------



## Furniture

HiTechComms said:


> Guess Elon is gone be the bad guy now.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499976967105433600


You're aware there is a difference between being pro free speech, and being pro-Russia?

Your apologizing/excusing Russian behaviour, and comparing Canadians joining a democratic foreign nation's military to people joining ISIS show which of the two you are.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500158629252636674
Russian fleet running out of gas


----------



## HiTechComms

Furniture said:


> You're aware there is a difference between being pro free speech, and being pro-Russia?
> 
> Your apologizing/excusing Russian behaviour, and comparing Canadians joining a democratic foreign nation's military to people joining ISIS show which of the two you are.


Nope. I said I understand why I am not excusing it.  I am anti-war.  You want to join any organization go ahead. I just don't want the government to pay out 10.5 million because it violated your charter.  No double standard.


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> Nope. I said I understand why I am not excusing it.  I am anti-war.  You want to join any organization go ahead. I just don't want the government to pay out 10.5 million because it violated your charter.  No double standard.


Sorry, but Furniture has it right.  I think you are anti war with Russia.


----------



## KevinB

HiTechComms said:


> Nope. I said I understand why I am not excusing it.  I am anti-war.  You want to join any organization go ahead. I just don't want the government to pay out 10.5 million because it violated your charter.  No double standard.


You missed the link I posted.  
   It’s clearly no illegal to join the UA for the purposes of joining against an internationally condemned and illegal invasion by Russia.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

HiTechComms said:


> Guess Elon is gone be the bad guy now.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499976967105433600


Free speech is about hearing stuff you don't want to hear. I support Elon Musk on this stance, the creep to controlling what we hear is to much of a long term threat to democracy.


----------



## HiTechComms

KevinB said:


> You missed the link I posted.
> It’s clearly no illegal to join the UA for the purposes of joining against an internationally condemned and illegal invasion by Russia.


Yeah until they captured and paraded on tv by Russians. You want to join, get a citizenship in the country.


----------



## SupersonicMax

HiTechComms said:


> Yeah until they captured and paraded on tv by Russians. You want to join, get a citizenship in the country.


Citizenship is not a requirement to be considered a lawful combatant.


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> Yeah until they captured and paraded on tv by Russians. You want to join, get a citizenship in the country.


Pretty sure that would happen regardless of citizenship.


----------



## MilEME09

SupersonicMax said:


> Citizenship is not a requirement to be considered a lawful combatant.


And not a requirement to join in many countries, infact joining is sometimes a way to get fast tracked citizenship is some countries.


----------



## Dana381

Colin Parkinson said:


> Free speech is about hearing stuff you don't want to hear. I support Elon Musk on this stance, the creep to controlling what we hear is to much of a long term threat to democracy.



Exactly, Free speech is Free speech. If you don't uphold that how are you different from Putin or Xi or any other person that uses media to control the masses.


----------



## HiTechComms

SupersonicMax said:


> Citizenship is not a requirement to be considered a lawful combatant.


Lawful according to which side wins? You can spout what the law is but in reality it rarely how its applied with skilled language manipulators.

RUSSIA to NATO don't get involved,
NATO ok we will not
NATO countries here is a bunch of Weapons
RUSSIA WTF NATO?
NATO we are not involved see its in the law.

Don't be surprised if these Foreign combatants end up in Gulags in Siberia.


----------



## Dana381

Russia Appears To Be Preparing Its Ancient An-2 Biplanes For War In Ukraine
					

A large number of the distinctive Cold War-era utility planes have appeared at an airfield close to the Ukrainian border.




					www.thedrive.com
				




Russia resorting to biplanes


----------



## HiTechComms

Dana381 said:


> Exactly, Free speech is Free speech. If you don't uphold that how are you different from Putin or Xi or any other person that uses media to control the masses.


Ok glad some one agrees.. So why did the western countries ban Russian Media, and tech platforms? Lets also remember Free Speech only exists in USA it is in their constitution.


----------



## MilEME09

HiTechComms said:


> Lawful according to which side wins? You can spout what the law is but in reality it rarely how its applied with skilled language manipulators.
> 
> RUSSIA to NATO don't get involved,
> NATO ok we will not
> NATO countries here is a bunch of Weapons
> RUSSIA WTF NATO?
> NATO we are not involved see its in the law.
> 
> Don't be surprised if these Foreign combatants end up in Gulags in Siberia.


All combatants that become POWs must be repatriated after the conflict, not doing so is a war crime


----------



## armrdsoul77

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499395103957434369


----------



## HiTechComms

MilEME09 said:


> All combatants that become POWs must be repatriated after the conflict, not doing so is a war crime


Please you think the Russian care. Yes because Russians have a history of being nice to their POWs.  People tell me that I don't understand Russians. These pricks were shooting civilians in Polish uniforms during protests.

Who is going to come after them? The magical Hague Faeries? 

That last bullet might be quite an appealing way out if your captured.


----------



## Furniture

HiTechComms said:


> Lawful according to which side wins? You can spout what the law is but in reality it rarely how its applied with skilled language manipulators.
> 
> RUSSIA to NATO don't get involved,
> NATO ok we will not
> NATO countries here is a bunch of Weapons
> RUSSIA WTF NATO?
> NATO we are not involved see its in the law.
> 
> Don't be surprised if these Foreign combatants end up in Gulags in Siberia.


You can't help outing yourself... 

Like I said before, I'm not sure if you're pro-Russia, anti-Ukraine, or just anti-government, regardless you are cheerleading for the bad guys. 

Russia invaded a sovereign foreign nation, ruled by a democratically elected government that was trying to Westernize itself even more. There is no way to spin this that Russia is the poor put-upon underdog being picked on by big mean NATO. That NATO didn't demolish his military the second the war kicked off is only because we rightly fear nuclear war. So supporting Ukraine right up to the point of a declaration of war is not only right, but the least we can do.


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> Lawful according to which side wins? You can spout what the law is but in reality it rarely how its applied with skilled language manipulators.
> 
> RUSSIA to NATO don't get involved,
> NATO ok we will not
> NATO countries here is a bunch of Weapons
> RUSSIA WTF NATO?
> NATO we are not involved see its in the law.
> 
> Don't be surprised if these Foreign combatants end up in Gulags in Siberia.


Why would that surprise us? You talk like we don’t know what Putin is really like.


----------



## MilEME09

HiTechComms said:


> Please you think the Russian care. Yes because Russians have a history of being nice to their POWs.  People tell me that I don't understand Russians.


I am just stating facts, I didn't state anything on whether Russia would follow the rule of law. 

If you want to go down that route, Russia has ignored both the LOAC and the Geneva convention multiple times. I do not believe they will treat POWs fairly, but when this is over, Russians who made the decisions will be held accountable.


----------



## Jarnhamar

HiTechComms said:


> Lawful according to which side wins? You can spout what the law is but in reality it rarely how its applied with skilled language manipulators.
> 
> RUSSIA to NATO don't get involved,
> NATO ok we will not
> NATO countries here is a bunch of Weapons
> RUSSIA WTF NATO?
> NATO we are not involved see its in the law.
> 
> Don't be surprised if these Foreign combatants end up in Gulags in Siberia.


Innocent civilians including children are being killed in their homes and in the streets.

Your concern over people getting involved to try and stop that ending up in jail is coming across as really genuine and not a deflection at all.


----------



## Dana381

armrdsoul77 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499395103957434369



That's great news. More soldiers that don't want to fight Ukrainians. How much internal sabotage will that result in. This crazy war just keeps getting wierder and wierder.


----------



## HiTechComms

MilEME09 said:


> I am just stating facts, I didn't state anything on whether Russia would follow the rule of law.
> 
> If you want to go down that route, Russia has ignored both the LOAC and the Geneva convention multiple times. I do not believe they will treat POWs fairly, but when this is over, Russians who made the decisions will be held accountable.


As much as I believe in the Rule of Law. I doubt this will ever happen. Even in our own countries we rarely punish the people in charge.  Seems like its a universal constant.


----------



## MilEME09

HiTechComms said:


> As much as I believe in the Rule of Law. I doubt this will ever happen. Even in our own countries we rarely punish the people in charge.  Seems like its a universal constant.


Considering the ICC is already investigating, good thing they aren't in  Canada, and have laid charges in major cases


----------



## kev994

Dana381 said:


> Russia Appears To Be Preparing Its Ancient An-2 Biplanes For War In Ukraine
> 
> 
> A large number of the distinctive Cold War-era utility planes have appeared at an airfield close to the Ukrainian border.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedrive.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia resorting to biplanes


That’s a crop duster. They can put gas in that and conduct a CBRN attack.


----------



## HiTechComms

MilEME09 said:


> Considering the ICC is already investigating, good thing they aren't in  Canada, and have laid charges in major cases


That's great. Does ICC have some kind of a way of actually making that person being physically present when charges are laid. Last time I checked Russia is a non extradition country.


----------



## Dana381

kev994 said:


> That’s a crop duster. They can put gas in that and conduct a CBRN attack.



True, I didn't think of that. The article thinks they are converted to drones to saturate and expose air defenses


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500056146673078272
Occupied cities not making it easy for Russia


----------



## MilEME09

HiTechComms said:


> That's great. Does ICC have some kind of a way of actually making that person being physically present when charges are laid. Last time I checked Russia is a non extradition country.


They have charged in absentia before, Russia is part of Interpol, if you think that if Russia looses this they won't go after people in Russia, you are mistaken.


----------



## TacticalTea

RangerRay said:


> Terry Glavin: Disinformation and the disgrace of Canada's Russia apologists, on the left and right
> 
> 
> Putin and his various allies have long benefited from those in the West parroting their propaganda
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nationalpost.com


Wow, that article was beautifully written. Terry Glavin, definitely gonna remember that name.


Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499894935209795594
> 
> Is there and effective way to neutralize Russias nukes? Because NATO can rid itself of a 80 year problem if it can.


Impossible to tell how feasible it is given the secrecy surrounding both Russia's capabilities, and the US' tracking and ability to neutralize those capabilities, but given Russia's demonstrated incompetence and current woes, it seems enticing to conduct an anti-nuclear first strike. 

It sure would be nice to live in a post-MAD world.


The Bread Guy said:


> A bit of a giggle from my fave Parody account
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500052814000705537


Should we start sending more tractors and tow trucks to Ukraine?


Jarnhamar said:


> In Kamala Harris's defense they did ask for laymans terms.


Goes to show what she thinks of her country's laymen... As if they were children.


MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500092833021243393
> Admit reports of a Ukrainian counter attack, this shows up in Kharkiv, looks like the weather is getting ugly too.


Oh ya, eh, finally a piece of footage that really shows harsh, wintry conditions in this war. I hope this helps give UKR some tactical victories. Looking forward to footage of those southern Kadyrovskys freezing in the snow.


----------



## Messerschmitt

Biden welcomes you


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> That's great. Does ICC have some kind of a way of actually making that person being physically present when charges are laid. Last time I checked Russia is a non extradition country.


Russia is a rogue country. 

The largest pariah state in history.


----------



## armrdsoul77

Dana381 said:


> True, I didn't think of that. The article thinks they are converted to drones to saturate and expose air defenses


On fabric covered wings no less. They become drones when the pilot locks the controls and bails out.


----------



## Remius

Reports are that Russian Cyber types are not as active trying to mess up the west because they are too busy being being redirected to keep things up and running in mother russia and trying to convince the masses that everything is fine.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499146022400020493


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499146022400020493


Makes me dream of a non-NATO second front opened by JAP/AUS/NZ


----------



## HiTechComms

Remius said:


> Russia is a rogue country.
> 
> The largest pariah state in history.


Its a state, agree or not. They democratically elected their leaders. They will pay the price for the aggression. You might not like them and I might not like them but it doesn't make the current reality not true. Oh and they have nukes and possibly an unstable leader.


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> Its a state, agree or not. They democratically elected their leaders. They will pay the price for the aggression. You might not like them and I might not like them but it doesn't make the current reality not true. Oh and they have nukes and possibly an unstable leader.


Still a rogue nation. Biggest Pariah state the world has ever seen. 

And you believe that they democratically elect their leaders?  Seriously believe that?


----------



## Blackadder1916

kev994 said:


> That’s a crop duster. They can put gas in that and conduct a CBRN attack.



While a crop duster is a potential delivery system for chemical or biological weapons, it has many limitations during "military" operations.  Primarily, to put the agent on target it has to go low and slow directly over the target.  Even when a force has air superiority, "low and slow" doesn't bode well.


----------



## kev994

Blackadder1916 said:


> While a crop duster is a potential delivery system for chemical or biological weapons, it has many limitations during "military" operations.  Primarily, to put the agent on target it has to go low and slow directly over the target.  Even when a force has air superiority, "low and slow" doesn't bode well.


If you have a couple, but if you throw a whole bunch at once…?


----------



## Dana381

kev994 said:


> That’s a crop duster. They can put gas in that and conduct a CBRN attack.



The AN-2 can be a crop duster but are the Russian military ones fitted that way? None of the examples in the article have booms on them. Using AN-2's for a chemical attack is possible however don't they have better (more effective) delivery systems for such weapons at their disposal?


----------



## GR66

Remius said:


> Still a rogue nation. Biggest Pariah state the world has ever seen.
> 
> And you believe that they democratically elect their leaders?  Seriously believe that?


Of course he believes that.  Just like he believes that Putin was "only a lawyer" in the KGB...



HiTechComms said:


> I don't think he will snap. He is a lawyer and politician, contrary to the misinformation he was never a spy, he worked in the secret service but as a legal trained professional. I think he knows exactly what he is doing. That doesn't mean he is not a sociopath but I highly doubt he will sacrifice all the Russian lives for his ego. He is a nationalist probably a racist as well and I don't think he wants non Russians part of Russia again.


I don't see any reference to legal work in this biography of Putin's KGB career...

Strange that almost every post in every thread seems to be designed to highlight controversy or create dissent.


----------



## Furniture

Dana381 said:


> The AN-2 can be a crop duster but are the Russian military ones fitted that way? None of the examples in the article have booms on them. Using AN-2's for a chemical attack is possible however don't they have better (more effective) delivery systems for such weapons at their disposal?


I think people are overthinking the obvious use for an aircraft like that, it's a flying cargo van. I imagine they would be used to ferry supplies closer to the front on improvised landing strips, or as a slightly stealthier way to insert airborne forces deep behind the front lines.


----------



## Remius

In other news.  Ukrainians sure have a great sense of humour.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500147298520768515


----------



## MilEME09

Remius said:


> In other news.  Ukrainians sure have a great sense of humour.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500147298520768515


But did they play annoying elevator music?


----------



## Jarnhamar

Over 75% of Russians democratically elected Putin. Now they face jail time for speaking ill of the Kremlin (or as Trudeau would say, having the wrong opinions).
They also face prison sentences for fake news and I think I've read something about trouble makers being conscripted and sent to the front lines.

That said I predict Putin getting 95% of the votes in the next democratic election.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Putin says Western sanctions are akin to declaration of war
> 
> 
> President Vladimir Putin said on Saturday that Western sanctions on Russia were akin to a declaration of war and warned that any attempt to impose a no-fly zone in Ukraine would lead to catastrophic consequences for the world.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


Just about done painting him into a corner….


----------



## Remius

Czech_pivo said:


> Just about done painting him into a corner….


Clearly getting to him.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Remius said:


> Clearly getting to him.



Wait until Putin starts threatening to use nukes if the world doesn't lift their sanctions.


----------



## Czech_pivo

kev994 said:


> That’s a crop duster. They can put gas in that and conduct a CBRN attack.


I’d be very concerned about the nerve gas that they used against the ‘Blacks Widows’ in the Moscow Theatre.


----------



## Czech_pivo

HiTechComms said:


> Its a state, agree or not. They democratically elected their leaders. They will pay the price for the aggression. You might not like them and I might not like them but it doesn't make the current reality not true. Oh and they have nukes and possibly an unstable leader.


Have a watch - you mean fraudulently elected, right?









						Russian Social Media Swamped With Video Evidence Of Ballot-Box Stuffing
					

Even though the Russian authorities no longer allow the public to see the live video feeds from polling stations as the country votes, many videos from polling stations across the country have emerged that seem to show flagrant ballot-box stuffing.




					www.rferl.org


----------



## Colin Parkinson

-20 C predicted for the region, ugh


----------



## Czech_pivo

Jarnhamar said:


> Over 75% of Russians democratically elected Putin. Now they face jail time for speaking ill of the Kremlin (or as Trudeau would say, having the wrong opinions).
> They also face prison sentences for fake news and I think I've read something about trouble makers being conscripted and sent to the front lines.
> 
> That said I predict Putin getting 95% of the votes in the next democratic election.


103% of the vote.


----------



## Furniture

Colin Parkinson said:


> -20 C predicted for the region, ugh


Weather forecasts are never correct...


----------



## armrdsoul77

The Russian Air Force Just Had A Terrible Day Over Ukraine


----------



## Colin Parkinson

The Oil must flow......









						China Welcomes Russian Oil Tankers With Alternative Payment Options
					

By Chen Aizhu (Reuters) – Chinese refiners are paying for Russian crude oil using cash transfers to maintain imports from Russia’s Fast East, as banks shy away from financing the oil because...




					gcaptain.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

Now this guy speaks like a Pole.

"Poland will never recognize territorial changes" in Ukraine brought on by Russian aggression, Polish FM says​
“Poland will never recognize territorial changes brought on by unlawful, unprovoked aggression the way in which Russia conducts hostilities based on the desire to break the will of Ukrainian resistance by means of attacks that terrorize the civilian population. Shelling residential areas, nuclear power plants … are war crimes under international law which are not subject to [the] statute of limitations and will be persecuted with utmost determination,” Rau said after meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Rzeszow, Poland


----------



## MilEME09

armrdsoul77 said:


> The Russian Air Force Just Had A Terrible Day Over Ukraine


I think this shows that Russia is loosing in the anti air game. Ukraine is able to push more and more to deny air space to the Russian air force. 

Anyone have any numbers of how many aircraft Russia has prepositioned for the invasion?


----------



## HiTechComms

GR66 said:


> Of course he believes that.  Just like he believes that Putin was "only a lawyer" in the KGB...
> 
> 
> I don't see any reference to legal work in this biography of Putin's KGB career...
> 
> Strange that almost every post in every thread seems to be designed to highlight controversy or create dissent.


He was a trained lawyer. He was posted to Germany part of the KGB but he wasn't ever a spy. He was a front man part of diplomatic focus, its why he is fluent in German. If you think that everyone at KGB was a spy then fair enough he was a spy. Then by the same logic any one that works for CIA or CSIS is also a spy. I was referring to a particular role inside the organization. I doubt we can get the whole truth as its probably classified. There is so much information that is completely questionable.

He was an administrator type, he exceled at it that's why he quickly transitioned to civic administration. He is a smart man maybe now a little unhinged.

I just don't believe any one, I don't trust the media, or the politicians. I am asking questions. I subscribe to the The Tenth Man principal because I rather not wake up one day and say "shit am I the bad guy". After the whole Iraq fiasco of WMD, Ooops bad intel led to a countless civilian deaths. Color me skeptical. *The Ukrainian fiasco the more it looks like a giant turd that frankly I think we have no business getting involved in.* *I don't care if I am right I just don't want to be Wrong*. Do you ever look at any sources beside the MSM. Who here has any first hand knowledge of what is actual is happening or history behind it? 

I am not on the band wagon of "Support Current Thing" .

I might not agree the sources and not like them but this conflict is not as clear cut as everyone has made it out to be. I am trying to find more sources but if this is true I don't want to be wrong at all. Are the following links any less valid then yours?









						What You Should Really Know About Ukraine - FAIR
					

Media echoed the view that the US should have an active role in Ukrainian politics and enforce its perspective through military threats.




					fair.org
				











						Ukraine Neo-Nazis Infiltrate EVERY LEVEL Of Military & Government
					

Become a Premium Member: https://jimmydorecomedy.com/join Go to a Live Show: https://jimmydorecomedy.com/tour Subscribe to Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/jimmydorecomedy/ytlivestreams The Jimmy Do




					rumble.com
				








Humans make horrible mistakes because they simply subscribe to a we are always the good guys dogma. Sorry I cannot support either side because I don't know the whole story. I rather be Neutral in the whole situation, we will know soon enough once the negotiations get some where. 

1. You want to go fight for Russia.. Go ahead. Don't expect to be bailed out.
2. Is Russia correct in invading Ukraine. NO
3. Should we be neutral in this. YES
4. Are their historical atrocities in Ukraine correct. YES and YES
5. Do I want escalation in the Region to expand to NATO. Hello NO. 
6. Am I correct on every fact. Probably Not.
7. Should we start banning everything Russian. No
8. Is there a solution. Yes, probably one that no one likes.
9. Do I think people are being manipulated by very polarizing propaganda. YES.
10. Is there a possibility of NEO-NAZI parties involved: Looks like it. Am I gone support that ideology as an ethnic Pole: HELL NO.

I simply voicing concern on becoming completely polarized on the subject.

/off topic
I think we have our own issue in this country to solve. Housing unaffordability and inflation. Hell its $2/L for Gas. Conveniently we are being distracted from our problems. Surprise Pikachu face that there are repercussions to shutting down the economy and printing a trillion dollars.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Furniture said:


> I think people are overthinking the obvious use for an aircraft like that, it's a flying cargo van. I imagine they would be used to ferry supplies closer to the front on improvised landing strips, or as a slightly stealthier way to insert airborne forces deep behind the front lines.


The An-2 was originally designed as an utility/agriculture aircraft and the Wikipedia article on the AN-2 Colt has the following; " [t]hese include hopper-equipped versions for crop-dusting." 

Also, if remember correctly it is pretty hard of to pick up on radar which makes it ideal for inserting special forces/agents behind enemy lines.


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> But did they play annoying elevator music?


Now that would be a war crime.


----------



## Kirkhill

Czech_pivo said:


> Just about done painting him into a corner….



If he perceives it as war, then it must be a war.

After all, isn't all about the perceptions of the aggrieved?


----------



## Kirkhill

Colin Parkinson said:


> -20 C predicted for the region, ugh


Bad news.

Fields will harden.  

Unless the wheels end up frozen into their ruts.


----------



## Kirkhill

armrdsoul77 said:


> The Russian Air Force Just Had A Terrible Day Over Ukraine











						Reliable friends will uninterruptedly supply Ukraine with weapons - Kuleba
					

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Infrastructure have organized reliable routes for the supply of weapons and military equipment to Ukraine. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				












						Ukraine: UK 'leading the way' in supplying anti-air weapons to counter Russian jets
					

The Defence Secretary has also rejected calls for RAF jets to enforce a no-fly zone, warning it would trigger a Europe-wide conflict.




					www.forces.net
				




The DIY No Fly Zone


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> I think this shows that Russia is loosing in the anti air game. Ukraine is able to push more and more to deny air space to the Russian air force.
> 
> Anyone have any numbers of how many aircraft Russia has prepositioned for the invasion?


I’ve read 34 planes, over 10 helos.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500201144538341386
Latest confirmed Russia Air losses via wreckage


----------



## Kat Stevens

Kirkhill said:


> Bad news.
> 
> Fields will harden.
> 
> Unless the wheels end up frozen into their ruts.


It takes more than a couple of days of -20 for the ground to freeze hard enough to hold up anything bigger than one of those self propelled roto-tillers.


----------



## HiTechComms

Not sure who this guy is Col. Douglas Macgregor. 

Another perspective worth looking at.









						Col. Douglas Macgregor has advice for Zelensky. Russia's Cauldron/Syria strategy
					

Col. Douglas Macgregor has advice for Zelensky. Russia's Cauldron/Syria strategy The Duran: Episode 1239




					rumble.com


----------



## GR66

Kirkhill said:


> If he perceives it as war, then it must be a war.
> 
> After all, isn't all about the perceptions of the aggrieved?


Maybe he's just experiencing it differently?


----------



## Furniture

HiTechComms said:


> He was a trained lawyer. He was posted to Germany part of the KGB but he wasn't ever a spy. He was a front man part of diplomatic focus, its why he is fluent in German. If you think that everyone at KGB was a spy then fair enough he was a spy. Then by the same logic any one that works for CIA or CSIS is also a spy. I was referring to a particular role inside the organization. I doubt we can get the whole truth as its probably classified. There is so much information that is completely questionable.
> 
> He was an administrator type, he exceled at it that's why he quickly transitioned to civic administration. He is a smart man maybe now a little unhinged.
> 
> I just don't believe any one, I don't trust the media, or the politicians. I am asking questions. I subscribe to the The Tenth Man principal because I rather not wake up one day and say "shit am I the bad guy". After the whole Iraq fiasco of WMD, Ooops bad intel led to a countless civilian deaths. Color me skeptical. *The Ukrainian fiasco the more it looks like a giant turd that frankly I think we have no business getting involved in.* *I don't care if I am right I just don't want to be Wrong*. Do you ever look at any sources beside the MSM. Who here has any first hand knowledge of what is actual is happening or history behind it?
> 
> I am not on the band wagon of "Support Current Thing" .
> 
> I might not agree the sources and not like them but this conflict is not as clear cut as everyone has made it out to be. I am trying to find more sources but if this is true I don't want to be wrong at all. Are the following links any less valid then yours?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What You Should Really Know About Ukraine - FAIR
> 
> 
> Media echoed the view that the US should have an active role in Ukrainian politics and enforce its perspective through military threats.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> fair.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine Neo-Nazis Infiltrate EVERY LEVEL Of Military & Government
> 
> 
> Become a Premium Member: https://jimmydorecomedy.com/join Go to a Live Show: https://jimmydorecomedy.com/tour Subscribe to Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/jimmydorecomedy/ytlivestreams The Jimmy Do
> 
> 
> 
> 
> rumble.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Humans make horrible mistakes because they simply subscribe to a we are always the good guys dogma. Sorry I cannot support either side because I don't know the whole story. I rather be Neutral in the whole situation, we will know soon enough once the negotiations get some where.
> 
> 1. You want to go fight for Russia.. Go ahead. Don't expect to be bailed out.
> 2. Is Russia correct in invading Ukraine. NO
> 3. Should we be neutral in this. YES
> 4. Are their historical atrocities in Ukraine correct. YES and YES
> 5. Do I want escalation in the Region to expand to NATO. Hello NO.
> 6. Am I correct on every fact. Probably Not.
> 7. Should we start banning everything Russian. No
> 8. Is there a solution. Yes, probably one that no one likes.
> 9. Do I think people are being manipulated by very polarizing propaganda. YES.
> 10. Is there a possibility of NEO-NAZI parties involved: Looks like it. Am I gone support that ideology as an ethnic Pole: HELL NO.
> 
> I simply voicing concern on becoming completely polarized on the subject.
> 
> /off topic
> I think we have our own issue in this country to solve. Housing unaffordability and inflation. Hell its $2/L for Gas. Conveniently we are being distracted from our problems. Surprise Pikachu face that there are repercussions to shutting down the economy and printing a trillion dollars.


Just so I'm clear on your stance here, the Ukrainian people deserve to be crushed under the oppressive heel of a Russian puppet government because a small number of them are neo-Nazis?


----------



## MilEME09

GR66 said:


> Maybe he's just experiencing it differently?


It's a scare tactic to get the west to back off, each day we continue to see endless attacks on civilians, the more I think we should go in, in either a limited way by taking out Belarus to deny Russia its use as basing, or supply routes. Or go full no fly zone and see if Russia is willing to fire shots.


----------



## Remius

Furniture said:


> Just so I'm clear on your stance here, the Ukrainian people deserve to be crushed under the oppressive heel of a Russian puppet government because a small number of them are neo-Nazis?


It’s clear he does not like Ukraine.


----------



## RangerRay

TacticalTea said:


> Wow, that article was beautifully written. Terry Glavin, definitely gonna remember that name.
> 
> Impossible to tell how feasible it is given the secrecy surrounding both Russia's capabilities, and the US' tracking and ability to neutralize those capabilities, but given Russia's demonstrated incompetence and current woes, it seems enticing to conduct an anti-nuclear first strike.
> 
> It sure would be nice to live in a post-MAD world.
> 
> Should we start sending more tractors and tow trucks to Ukraine?
> 
> Goes to show what she thinks of her country's laymen... As if they were children.
> 
> Oh ya, eh, finally a piece of footage that really shows harsh, wintry conditions in this war. I hope this helps give UKR some tactical victories. Looking forward to footage of those southern Kadyrovskys freezing in the snow.


Terry Glavin provides an interesting perspective in that he is an old-school labour socialist, human rights activist and anti-fascist, much like George Orwell whom he has written about as well. He does not share much in common with today’s anti-war/anti-imperialist left, who he feels are little more than apologists for tyrants that the West opposes.  Always worth a read.

You can usually find his stuff in National Post, Ottawa Citizen and Maclean’s.


----------



## TacticalTea

RangerRay said:


> Terry Glavin provides an interesting perspective in that he is an old-school labour socialist, human rights activist and anti-fascist, much like George Orwell whom he has written about as well. He does not share much in common with today’s anti-war/anti-imperialist left, who he feels are little more than apologists for tyrants that the West opposes.  Always worth a read.
> 
> You can usually find his stuff in National Post, Ottawa Citizen and Maclean’s.


His style certainly pleases the classical liberal that I am, equally dissatisfied with the modern ''left''.


----------



## HiTechComms

Furniture said:


> Just so I'm clear on your stance here, the Ukrainian people deserve to be crushed under the oppressive heel of a Russian puppet government because a small number of them are neo-Nazis?


Never said that. I am Neutral on the Ukraine thing. I rather not be involved. I rather not keep pushing the Russians into a no exit solution. Give them a way out and hopefully they do so.

I Support Red Cross, support the refugees.

Russia wants a political solution through their military actions.


----------



## Dana381

armrdsoul77 said:


> The Russian Air Force Just Had A Terrible Day Over Ukraine



Further down that article they law out how the Russians have been violating the ceasefire and not allowing civillians out of Irpen and other places. They attacked an empty train and destroyed rail lines. Pathetic!


----------



## HiTechComms

HiTechComms said:


> Not sure who this guy is Col. Douglas Macgregor.
> 
> Another perspective worth looking at.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Col. Douglas Macgregor has advice for Zelensky. Russia's Cauldron/Syria strategy
> 
> 
> Col. Douglas Macgregor has advice for Zelensky. Russia's Cauldron/Syria strategy The Duran: Episode 1239
> 
> 
> 
> 
> rumble.com


Please elaborate. I am willing to listen to your arguments.


----------



## HiTechComms

Remius said:


> It’s clear he does not like Ukraine.


No. Stop trying to put words in my mouth. I am neutral. Its a regional conflict that needs to be settled by them, even if its unfair. I rather not have WW3 with Nukes flying.


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> Please elaborate. I am willing to listen to your arguments.


You just asked for yourself to elaborate.


----------



## HiTechComms

Remius said:


> You just asked for yourself to elaborate.


I posted a link. Some one posted a Humorous reaction to it. I don't understand the meaning pertaining to the link provided, what did the user mean. My mistake in reply.


----------



## Furniture

HiTechComms said:


> Never said that. I am Neutral on the Ukraine thing. I rather not be involved. I rather not keep pushing the Russians into a no exit solution. Give them a way out and hopefully they do so.
> 
> I Support Red Cross, support the refugees.
> 
> Russia wants a political solution through their military actions.


You're not neutral if you think allowing Russia to bully nations by invading is a valid negotiating tactic. You might be lying to yourself, and saying you're neutral, but you aren't.

Russia wants another puppet state on NATO/EU borders that they can use to try to destabilize, and divide the West, just like their puppet Belarus was doing on the Polish border. Pretending Russia wants a "neutral" Ukraine is absolute BS, and I will call it out as such when people spout it.



Remius said:


> You just asked for yourself to elaborate.


I'm pretty sure he wants me to elaborate on why it's humorous.

The idiot on Fox was just there to get paid and stir the pot, classic anti-government garbage. I stopped watching the rest of it because it was just silly.


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> No. Stop trying to put words in my mouth. I am neutral. Its a regional conflict that needs to be settled by them, even if its unfair. I rather not have WW3 with Nukes flying.


You are doing a great job putting your own words in your mouth. You are using Russian apologist language and reasoning.    Hardly neutral.


----------



## Jarnhamar

HiTechComms said:


> Not sure who this guy is Col. Douglas Macgregor.


He's a retired US army colonel.

You may remember him from 2014 when he went on RT News to express his opposition to the US intervening in the Kosovo War.

Also in the same year he went on RT News again to call for the annexation of the Donbas.


----------



## HiTechComms

Furniture said:


> You're not neutral if you think allowing Russia to bully nations by invading is a valid negotiating tactic. You might be lying to yourself, and saying you're neutral, but you aren't.
> 
> Russia wants another puppet state on NATO/EU borders that they can use to try to destabilize, and divide the West, just like their puppet Belarus was doing on the Polish border. Pretending Russia wants a "neutral" Ukraine is absolute BS, and I will call it out as such when people spout it.
> 
> 
> I'm pretty sure he want me to elaborate on why it's humorous.
> 
> The idiot on Fox was just there to get paid and stir the pot, classic anti-government garbage. I stopped watching the rest of it because it was just silly.


That's your opinion and time will tell. I am at least willing to hear out the argument. Did you actually listen to the whole video? Or just the snippet that you found disagreeable?


----------



## RangerRay

HiTechComms said:


> Not sure who this guy is Col. Douglas Macgregor.
> 
> Another perspective worth looking at.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Col. Douglas Macgregor has advice for Zelensky. Russia's Cauldron/Syria strategy
> 
> 
> Col. Douglas Macgregor has advice for Zelensky. Russia's Cauldron/Syria strategy The Duran: Episode 1239
> 
> 
> 
> 
> rumble.com



Rumble…when your content is too whack even for YouTube.


----------



## HiTechComms

Jarnhamar said:


> He's a retired US army colonel.
> 
> You may remember him from 2014 when he went on RT News to express his opposition to the US intervening in the Kosovo War.
> 
> Also in the same year he went on RT News again to call for the annexation of the Donbas.


Fair enough. Donbas is complicated. I don't dare to even comment on it. I know that region has been in a civil war since 2014. Lots of people have died there, Ukrainians and ethnic Russian Ukrainians.


----------



## Furniture

HiTechComms said:


> That's your opinion and time will tell. I am at least willing to hear out the argument. Did you actually listen to the whole video? Or just the snippet that you found disagreeable?


I stopped listening because I don't have 33 minutes to waste listening to silliness...

The later dude, describing the Russian tactics seemed somewhat knowledgeable, but there was an obvious Russian apologist slant and I have no interest in hearing about why an autocratic government is justified in invading a sovereign democratic* nation. 

*Ukraine has it's flaws, but it is better in almost every way than Russia.


----------



## HiTechComms

RangerRay said:


> Rumble…when your content is too whack even for YouTube.


I am pro free speech. Youtube is not pro free speech, Rumble being Canadian seems to care more. I think its agreed that people are pro rather against. That is neither here or there.


----------



## Jarnhamar

HiTechComms said:


> Its a regional conflict that needs to be settled by them, even if its unfair.


I'm certain many people thought the very same thing about Germany and Poland in September 1939.


----------



## HiTechComms

Furniture said:


> I stopped listening because I don't have 33 minutes to waste listening to silliness...
> 
> The later dude, describing the Russian tactics seemed somewhat knowledgeable, but there was an obvious Russian apologist slant and I have no interest in hearing about why an autocratic government is justified in invading a sovereign democratic* nation.
> 
> *Ukraine has it's flaws, but it is better in almost every way than Russia.


I don't understand how people equate the two, explaining the situation with morally and ethically agreeing with the actions. I am separating the two, I rather understand. Time will tell.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Well this is a form of AD that fits our current budget.......


----------



## HiTechComms

Jarnhamar said:


> I'm certain many people thought the very same thing about Germany and Poland in September 1939.


Sure they did. Americans didn't enter until 1942 but that was because Japan screwed up.

You also forgot to mention how Poland was simultaneously attacked by Russians then killed 39k Polish soldiers and tried to blame the Germans. Conveniently omitted the fact that Britain had a formal Anglo-Polish Agreement which automatically triggered a war.

Please don't forget to mention how Britain and France also sold out on Sudetenland with out even consulting the Checkoslovakian representatives.

Hindsight 2020.  Not sure how this applies to this situation but you are free to make an argument.


----------



## GR66

HiTechComms said:


> Fair enough. Donbas is complicated. I don't dare to even comment on it. I know that region has been in a civil war since 2014. Lots of people have died there, Ukrainians and ethnic Russian Ukrainians.


...and Russian military.


----------



## Furniture

HiTechComms said:


> Sure they did. Americans didn't enter until 1942.
> You also forgot to mention how Poland was simultaneously attached by Russians then killed 39k Polish soldiers and tried to blame the Germans. Conveniently omitted the fact that Britain had a formal Anglo-Polish Agreement which automatically triggered a war.
> 
> *Please don't forget to mention how Britain and France also sold out on Sudetenland with out even consulting the Checkoslovakian representatives. *
> 
> Hindsight 2020.  Not sure how this applies to this situation but you are free to make an argument.


It's funny you bring that up, while being quite willing to sell out Ukraine to Russian "negotiations". Seems like the Ukrainian delegation at the current "negotiations" also object to being sold out... only they are objecting with NLAW, Javelin, Stinger, etc...


----------



## Zipperhead99

Colin Parkinson said:


> Well this is a form of AD that fits our current budget.......
> 
> View attachment 69224


Nah, with inflation and current gas prices driving up the cost of food, we cant even afford that type of air defence!


----------



## suffolkowner

Russia invaded Ukraine there was no reason to do so other than they thought they could

Ukraine is a non NATO nation and that is why it was invaded

I'm not interested in Russian apologist drivel


----------



## HiTechComms

Furniture said:


> It's funny you bring that up, while being quite willing to sell out Ukraine to Russian "negotiations". Seems like the Ukrainian delegation at the current "negotiations" also object to being sold out... only they are objecting with NLAW, Javelin, Stinger, etc...


That would be like Canada deciding the sovereignty of Cuba to the Americans. These situations are not the same. Donbas wanted out Ukraine didn't allow it, they wanted some concessions. 8 Years of civil war and here we are. 



GR66 said:


> ...and Russian military.


I didn't say it was fair. Then again Donbas had a referendum in regards to separation from Ukraine. Unless you don't believe in the democratic process. Agreed, and now the west is supplying foreign fighters and weapons. Seems like its a circular argument.


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> That would be like Canada deciding the sovereignty of Cuba to the Americans. These situations are not the same. Donbas wanted out Ukraine didn't allow it, they wanted some concessions. 8 Years of civil war and here we are.
> 
> 
> I didn't say it was fair. Then again Donbas had a referendum in regards to separation from Ukraine. Unless you don't believe in the democratic process. Agreed, and now the west is supplying foreign fighters and weapons. Seems like its a circular argument.


Ah so Russia is in Donbas to protect democracy?  Lol.


----------



## RangerRay

Before this unpleasantness, Vlad was dismissive of the effects of sanctions on Russia. He’s singing a different tune now. 









						Putin says Western sanctions are akin to declaration of war
					

President Vladimir Putin said on Saturday that Western sanctions on Russia were akin to a declaration of war and warned that any attempt to impose a no-fly zone in Ukraine would lead to catastrophic consequences for the world.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## suffolkowner

HiTechComms said:


> That would be like Canada deciding the sovereignty of Cuba to the Americans. These situations are not the same. Donbas wanted out Ukraine didn't allow it, they wanted some concessions. 8 Years of civil war and here we are.
> 
> 
> I didn't say it was fair. Then again Donbas had a referendum in regards to separation from Ukraine. Unless you don't believe in the democratic process. Agreed, and now the west is supplying foreign fighters and weapons. Seems like its a circular argument.


We need a new emoji for this nonsense. 

A Russian formented civil war with Russian troops of at least 20,000 and a Russian referendum after and in the midst of a civil war meanwhile the rest of Ukraine has managed to hold multiple real elections


----------



## Altair

Remius said:


> Ah so Russia is in Donbas to protect democracy?  Lol.


----------



## HiTechComms

suffolkowner said:


> Russia invaded Ukraine there was no reason to do so other than they thought they could
> 
> Ukraine is a non NATO nation and that is why it was invaded
> 
> I'm not interested in Russian apologist drivel


Hindsight 2020.

I rather not be at war with Russia. Its agreed that would be bad for everyone. Hope for the best prepare for the worst. I think Ukraine will put up a good fight but I don't think they will hold out against the Russian Forces.


----------



## Dana381

Badges!


----------



## RangerRay

HiTechComms said:


> That would be like Canada deciding the sovereignty of Cuba to the Americans. These situations are not the same. Donbas wanted out Ukraine didn't allow it, they wanted some concessions. 8 Years of civil war and here we are.
> 
> 
> I didn't say it was fair. Then again Donbas had a referendum in regards to separation from Ukraine. Unless you don't believe in the democratic process. Agreed, and now the west is supplying foreign fighters and weapons. Seems like its a circular argument.



You do realize that very few people outside the pro-Putin camp considered the referenda in occupied Ukraine to be legit, right?


----------



## Furniture

HiTechComms said:


> That would be like Canada deciding the sovereignty of Cuba to the Americans. These situations are not the same. Donbas wanted out Ukraine didn't allow it, they wanted some concessions. 8 Years of civil war and here we are.
> 
> 
> I didn't say it was fair. Then again Donbas had a referendum in regards to separation from Ukraine. Unless you don't believe in the democratic process. Agreed, and now the west is supplying foreign fighters and weapons. Seems like its a circular argument.


I suspected you were a Russian sympathizer before, but all doubt is gone now.

Maybe your Russian sympathy is born out of a weird idolization of Putin as a "manly man", or some old country hatred for Ukrainians, but either way you are very obvious in your leaning.

Where I grew up the old country hatred between Catholics and Protestants was just dying out as people became less religious, but there were still traces. Most of the families had moved over in the late 18th and early 19th century, so some of this stuff lingers long after it's purpose has been served.


----------



## lenaitch

HiTechComms said:


> Ok glad some one agrees.. So why did the western countries ban Russian Media, and tech platforms? Lets also remember *Free Speech only exists in USA it is in their constitution.*


Do you serious believe that statement - both parts?


HiTechComms said:


> Its a state, agree or not. *They democratically elected their leaders*. They will pay the price for the aggression. You might not like them and I might not like them but it doesn't make the current reality not true. Oh and they have nukes and possibly an unstable leader.


I find it curious that every time a presidential candidate - usually an independent - gets a groundswell of popular support and growth in the polls, he is quickly charged and convicted with some crime that renders him ineligible to run.



HiTechComms said:


> (EDITED)





HiTechComms said:


> Humans make horrible mistakes because they simply subscribe to a we are always the good guys dogma. Sorry I cannot support either side because I don't know the whole story. I rather be Neutral in the whole situation, we will know soon enough once the negotiations get some where.
> 
> 1. You want to go fight for Russia.. Go ahead. Don't expect to be bailed out.
> 2. Is Russia correct in invading Ukraine. NO
> 3. Should we be neutral in this. YES
> 4. Are their historical atrocities in Ukraine correct. YES and YES
> 5. Do I want escalation in the Region to expand to NATO. Hello NO.
> 6. Am I correct on every fact. Probably Not.
> 7. Should we start banning everything Russian. No
> *8. Is there a solution. Yes, probably one that no one likes.*
> 9. Do I think people are being manipulated by very polarizing propaganda. YES.
> 10. Is there a possibility of NEO-NAZI parties involved: Looks like it. Am I gone support that ideology as an ethnic Pole: HELL NO.


#8 - Let's have it.


----------



## SupersonicMax

HiTechComms said:


> Hindsight 2020.
> 
> I rather not be at war with Russia. Its agreed that would be bad for everyone. Hope for the best prepare for the worst. I think Ukraine will put up a good fight but I don't think they will hold out against the Russian Forces.


Well, they are.


----------



## Altair

Completely unrelated topic, but I never want to be accused of trolling on here again.


----------



## HumblePie

RangerRay said:


> Before this unpleasantness, Vlad was dismissive of the effects of sanctions on Russia. He’s singing a different tune now.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Putin says Western sanctions are akin to declaration of war
> 
> 
> President Vladimir Putin said on Saturday that Western sanctions on Russia were akin to a declaration of war and warned that any attempt to impose a no-fly zone in Ukraine would lead to catastrophic consequences for the world.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com




__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t7j7p1

Challenge accepted!


----------



## HiTechComms

Remius said:


> Ah so Russia is in Donbas to protect democracy?  Lol.


I never said it was. That is some of their claims. I have previously stated that I don't think Russians even want Donbas. They will give them independence but due to the poverty of the area and especially now they will just use them as useful idiots.

There are numerous reasons, I think it has a lot to do with access to the Black sea, Crimea access to the Water which had to be imported via pipeline because Ukraine damned the rivers up stream. I think there are also possible gas fields in south east Ukraine, and a critical pipeline from Russia into that runs through there.

Everyone is looking through simplistic view. Russia is doing what it thinks it needs to for its National interests. Not sure why everyone thinks there is some personal reason behind this. Time will tell.


----------



## KevinB

Free Speech does not equal disinformation campaigns or Hate Speech. 

Russia has a history of IO campaigns, as well as publishing complete untruths, that would be actionable as libel, if they where in a country that gave any attention to the rule of law.   

When a country claims they are invading to ‘De-Nazify’ a country with a Jewish President, and that same country bombs a holocaust monument - you got to figure that anything coming out to Russia is about as crooked as a Belarusian election.


----------



## HiTechComms

RangerRay said:


> You do realize that very few people outside the pro-Putin camp considered the referenda in occupied Ukraine to be legit, right?


Do you live in Donbas ? I don't. I am assuming that democratic votes are just that. The civil was that broke out there is a good sign that there was a separatist movement.  At least in Canada we would honor a sovereignty referendum.


----------



## KevinB

HiTechComms said:


> Do you live in Donbas ? I don't. I am assuming that democratic votes are just that. The civil was that broke out there is a good sign that there was a separatist movement.  At least in Canada we would honor a sovereignty referendum.


You are either monumentally stupid or a Russian mouthpiece.


----------



## suffolkowner

HiTechComms said:


> Do you live in Donbas ? I don't. I am assuming that democratic votes are just that. The civil was that broke out there is a good sign that there was a separatist movement.  At least in Canada we would honor a sovereignty referendum.


nonsense


----------



## HiTechComms

KevinB said:


> Free Speech does not equal disinformation campaigns or Hate Speech.
> 
> Russia has a history of IO campaigns, as well as publishing complete untruths, that would be actionable as libel, if they where in a country that gave any attention to the rule of law.
> 
> When a country claims they are invading to ‘De-Nazify’ a country with a Jewish President, and that same country bombs a holocaust monument - you got to figure that anything coming out to Russia is about as crooked as a Belarusian election.


Free Speech is free speech. I am not sure what you are referring to in regards to Hate speech. If you are a free speech purist Hate speech doesn't exist. Maybe you are referring to "call to action" that is not Free Speech. Hate speech is a Canadian legislation, if you are making the argument on free speech in Canada, semantically its "Freedom of Expression" which is limited (sedition, libel, hate speech etc..), I am assuming you are not referring to the American counterpart.

Sure of course Russia has a history of Propaganda never disagreed. Lots of jokes in Poland about Pravda (meaning truth, and or justice depending on context) The news paper hardly ever contained either.

Do you think Ukrainians don't know how to use propaganda or even the west.  I said this before "Trust but Verify"   There is so much noise I don't believe a single thing at face value.  If cooler heads had prevailed this war would have been prevented a decade ago. It is what it is.


----------



## Jarnhamar

HiTechComms said:


> Do you live in Donbas ? I don't.


You don't live in Russia but you seem confident speaking for them.


----------



## daftandbarmy

As I recall, similar issues caused the Soviets to erect the Berlin Wall ...


Russians are trying to flee Putin’s chaos​Using data from Google Trends, The Economist has tracked the discontent​Mar 4th 2022

Vladimir putin, so intent on bringing Ukraine under his control, is neglecting the problems facing Russians at home. A survey conducted between February 17th and 21st—that is, in the week before Mr Putin’s invasion—by the Levada Centre, an independent Russian pollster, found that 43% of Russians between the ages of 18 and 24 wanted to leave the country for good. And 44% of those who hoped to emigrate cited the “economic situation” as their motivation.

That situation is likely to get a lot worse. Western sanctions have created an economic storm: rising inflation, a crashing currency, and imports that are expected to dwindle. Many Russians will soon struggle to afford what they need to survive.

Eagerness to leave seems to be mounting. Data from Google Trends, which tracks how often particular words are entered into its search engine, show that Russian-language searches for “political asylum”, “emigration”, “flights” and “visa” all leapt in Russia in the days leading up to the invasion on February 24th. Queries for “flights” increased nine-fold from the week ending February 20th to the week ending February 27th. More Russians are asking Google “how to leave Russia” than have done so in 18 years since such data became public. Searches in the final two weeks of February were 16 times higher than the average weekly search volume from the past five years. Finnish trains from St Petersburg to Helsinki—which typically accommodate far fewer passengers than they have capacity for—have been packed with Russian travellers since February 27th. VR Group, a Finnish train company, told _The Economist_ they plan to double the number of daily trains in order to address the growing demand from Russian passengers.

Since the imposition of stringent economic sanctions by Western countries last weekend, the Russian authorities have been straining to prop up the economy and the rouble, which has sunk to record lows against the dollar. The central bank has doubled interest rates. Russians—who have been queuing to take their money out of the banks—have been banned from leaving the country with more than $10,000 in cash. On March 2nd, Mr Putin’s cabinet offered preferential government mortgages and military deferment to information technology workers at Russian firms. But as the grip of sanctions tightens, such incentives may not be enough to keep more Russians from leaving. ■









						Russians are trying to flee Putin’s chaos
					

Using data from Google Trends, The Economist has tracked the discontent




					www.economist.com


----------



## suffolkowner

HiTechComms said:


> humans make horrible mistakes because they simply subscribe to a we are always the good guys dogma. Sorry I cannot support either side because I don't know the whole story. I rather be Neutral in the whole situation, we will know soon enough once the negotiations get some where.
> 
> 1. You want to go fight for Russia.. Go ahead. Don't expect to be bailed out. *Fight for Russia-NO For Ukraine-Sure. Who's expecting to get bailed out*
> *2. *Is Russia correct in invading Ukraine. NO *Correct*
> 3. Should we be neutral in this. * NO*
> 4. Are their historical atrocities in Ukraine correct.  *So what are there historical atrocities in Poland, Belarus, Russia?*
> 5. Do I want escalation in the Region to expand to NATO.  *Russia isn't going to engage NATO, there's some leeway there*
> 6. Am I correct on every fact. Probably Not.
> 7. Should we start banning everything Russian.  *YES*
> 8. Is there a solution. Yes, probably one that no one likes. *Correct*
> 9. Do I think people are being manipulated by very polarizing propaganda. *You sure seem to be*
> 10. Is there a possibility of NEO-NAZI parties involved: Looks like it. Am I gone support that ideology as an ethnic Pole: HELL NO. *Neo-Nazi's nonsense*
> 
> I simply voicing concern on becoming completely polarized on the subject



Dont be so open minded that you let all that empty space be taken up by Russian BS


----------



## Furniture

HiTechComms said:


> Do you think Ukrainians don't know how to use propaganda or even the west.  I said this before "Trust but Verify"   There is so much noise I don't believe a single thing at face value.  *If cooler heads had prevailed this war would have been prevented a decade ago. It is what it is.*



What you really mean is, "If Ukrainians accepted that they are second class citizens of the Europe, who should have no control over their own destiny, and just accepted the yolk of USSR 2.0 war could have been pushed back a couple more years."


----------



## kev994

HiTechComms said:


> Do you live in Donbas ? I don't. I am assuming that democratic votes are just that. The civil was that broke out there is a good sign that there was a separatist movement.  At least in Canada we would honor a sovereignty referendum.


Online foreign influence campaigns are almost certainly ongoing and not limited to key political events like elections. Online foreign influence activities are a new normal, and adversaries seek to influence domestic events as well as impact international discourse related to current events. 


			https://cyber.gc.ca/sites/default/files/publications/ncta-2020-e-web.pdf


----------



## Altair

kev994 said:


> Online foreign influence campaigns are almost certainly ongoing and not limited to key political events like elections. Online foreign influence activities are a new normal, and adversaries seek to influence domestic events as well as impact international discourse related to current events.
> 
> 
> https://cyber.gc.ca/sites/default/files/publications/ncta-2020-e-web.pdf


Are we being campaigned against?


----------



## HiTechComms

Furniture said:


> What you really mean is, "If Ukrainians accepted that they are second class citizens of the Europe, who should have no control over their own destiny, and just accepted the yolk of USSR 2.0 war could have been pushed back a couple more years."


Everyone is making assumptions. I don't know. As I said I rather be Neutral in the whole ordeal. Not taking any sides. Support Red cross, support refugees.. No matter how much squawking is made its not going to change the current situation. The only upside is that negotiation are under way, granted they are inherently unfair to Ukraine. 
Usually the larger party has the upper hand no matter what, even Canada got strong armed in USMCA to make concessions. The means to making concessions differ but the 800 lb Gorilla usually gets its way. Yes Russia is using Military to settle a Political agreement. 

Nothing is stopping any of you supporting Ukraine. I will support through my ways, I simply will not support aggression in Ukraine that might escalate the situation internationally. I don't want Poland to get Nuked, I do have family there and I believe if we screw up internationally the Russian will let the Nukes fly. Yes I am afraid.


----------



## kev994

Altair said:


> Are we being campaigned against?


I’m alluding that between this thread and a bunch of posts against vaccines in a different thread, HTC posts similarly to someone who would be attempting to breed discontent.


----------



## Prairie canuck

HiTechComms said:


> Do you live in Donbas ? I don't. I am assuming that democratic votes are just that. The civil was that broke out there is a good sign that there was a separatist movement.  At least in Canada we would honor a sovereignty referendum.


It's sad. You are quite simply nothing more than a troll. You've conveniently planted yourself on the fence which allows you to lean to either side depending on the arguments placed before you. There's never an acknowledgement that opinions placed before you may be correct and that yours are wrong and you even wander off topic intentionally trying to swerve between the philosophical and facts so as to blur the lines and conveniently make it near impossible to respond to. You change the discourse to avoid it, wander into history and cultural leanings that are no longer in place. As I said it's sad. Your deep desire for attention of any type, positive or negative, has left you with the unfortunate position of aligning as the "opposite" in these posts even after being dismissed as questionably having any sort of intelligent intent when you "discuss". You are attracting attention but it's not positive and there is very little respect for any or all of your posts. Maybe it's time to step back and take a breath, go for a walk, be amongst real people and remember to wear a mask. For their protection, not yours.


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> Everyone is making assumptions. I don't know. As I said I rather be Neutral in the whole ordeal. Not taking any sides. Support Red cross, support refugees.. No matter how much squawking is made its not going to change the current situation. The only upside is that negotiation are under way, granted they are inherently unfair to Ukraine.
> Usually the larger party has the upper hand no matter what, even Canada got strong armed in USMCA to make concessions. The means to making concessions differ but the 800 lb Gorilla usually gets its way. Yes Russia is using Military to settle a Political agreement.
> 
> Nothing is stopping any of you supporting Ukraine. I will support through my ways, I simply will not support aggression in Ukraine that might escalate the situation internationally. I don't want Poland to get Nuked, I do have family there and I believe if we screw up internationally the Russian will let the Nukes fly. Yes I am afraid.


You aren’t Neutral.  Stop being dishonest with everyone here.

You actually sound like you could be a card carrying member of the Zmiana Party.  Your language  is very similar.


----------



## HiTechComms

kev994 said:


> I’m alluding that between this thread and a bunch of posts against vaccines in a different thread, HTC posts similarly to someone who would be attempting to breed discontent.


Diversity stops here right? Any way. I don't want WW3. Its up to the West not to make it happen. Support Ukraine in your way never discouraged any way. I just simply expressed my opinion that we need to tread carefully. 
We will know how this turns out soon enough.


----------



## Zipperhead99

Apologies if this has already been posted, but this article does offer some good analysis of the current situation









						Letter from Kyiv: Putin’s War on Ukraine is 'Pozor Rossii' - Breaking Defense
					

Writing from Kyiv, Breaking Defense's Ukraine correspondent grapples with the strategic implications and lessons learned a week after Russia's invasion.




					breakingdefense.com


----------



## suffolkowner

HiTechComms said:


> Everyone is making assumptions. I don't know. As I said I rather be Neutral in the whole ordeal. Not taking any sides. Support Red cross, support refugees.. No matter how much squawking is made its not going to change the current situation. The only upside is that negotiation are under way, granted they are inherently unfair to Ukraine.
> Usually the larger party has the upper hand no matter what, even Canada got strong armed in USMCA to make concessions. The means to making concessions differ but the 800 lb Gorilla usually gets its way. Yes Russia is using Military to settle a Political agreement.
> 
> Nothing is stopping any of you supporting Ukraine. I will support through my ways, I simply will not support aggression in Ukraine that might escalate the situation internationally. I don't want Poland to get Nuked, I do have family there and I believe if we screw up internationally the Russian will let the Nukes fly. Yes I am afraid.


You can be neutral as you call it but most members on this site understand that we are in a defensive alliance against Russia and that Russia has been the agressor in this instance and others. I think most also think that countries should be able to determine their own future without threat and intimidation


----------



## suffolkowner

HiTechComms said:


> . I don't want WW3. Its up to the West not to make it happen. Support Ukraine in your way never discouraged any way. I just simply expressed my opinion that we need to tread carefully.
> We will know how this turns out soon enough.


Its up to Russia to avoid WW3. NATO isn't doing anything to provoke WW3 and has been treading too carefully


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> Diversity stops here right? Any way. I don't want WW3. Its up to the West not to make it happen. Support Ukraine in your way never discouraged any way. I just simply expressed my opinion that we need to tread carefully.
> We will know how this turns out soon enough.


Do you accept that Ukraine is a sovereign country able to determine its own destiny.  

It’s a simple yes or no.  

Yes or no?


----------



## Remius

suffolkowner said:


> Its up to Russia to avoid WW3. NATO isn't doing anything to provoke WW3 and has been treading too carefully


Time to ramp up.  High-tech has convinced me that more needs to be done.


----------



## Blackadder1916

kev994 said:


> I’m alluding that between this thread and a bunch of posts against vaccines in a different thread, HTC posts similarly to someone who would be attempting to breed discontent.



Or "useful idiot".


----------



## suffolkowner

Remius said:


> Time to ramp up.  High-tech has convinced me that more needs to be done.


Yes lets get those Mig-29's and Su-25's into Ukrainian hands


----------



## suffolkowner

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500217320702189576
We'll keep supporting Ukraine and Russia will keep taking these losses


----------



## Jarnhamar

HiTechComms said:


> I don't want WW3. Its up to *the West* not to make it happen.


You spelt Russia wrong.


----------



## NavyShooter

Altair said:


> Are we being campaigned against?


Interesting concept...is HTC part of the influence campaign?


----------



## Remius

suffolkowner said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500217320702189576
> We'll keep supporting Ukraine and Russia will keep taking these losses


It’s a matter of time.  Ukraine has to hold out long enough to make Russia’s economy completely collapse.  All Russia has to do is withdraw.  That’s it. 









						What’s awaiting Russia may be much worse than the chaos of 1990s
					

If Putin does not change course – and fast – Russia may find itself in an economic catastrophe akin to that of 1918.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## Remius

NavyShooter said:


> Interesting concept...is HTC part of the influence campaign?


If he is he isn’t really influencing much here.


----------



## KevinB

HiTechComms said:


> Diversity stops here right? Any way. I don't want WW3. Its up to the West not to make it happen. Support Ukraine in your way never discouraged any way. I just simply expressed my opinion that we need to tread carefully.
> We will know how this turns out soon enough.


HTC, interesting choice of words since Russia was the one who invaded a NATO enhanced partner state. 

You say you don’t want WW3 but you seem to ignore the fact that if anyone is the cause it is one Vladimir Putin.   

International Election monitors have reported the vast corruption and malfeasance on behave of Russia in the occupied territories - about as honest as the Belarusian election I have poured out to before.  

Yet you claim that those referendums are fair and open and should be respected. 

You should do a lot of research before you post anymore IF you aren’t just a Russia IO bot. 

The UN has near unanimously condemned the Russian invasion.  
   I would rather risk WW3 to stop Russia as this point, because if one doesn’t stop a bully, they will simply continue.


----------



## TES

HiTechComms said:


> Hindsight 2020.
> 
> I rather not be at war with Russia. Its agreed that would be bad for everyone. Hope for the best prepare for the worst. I think Ukraine will put up a good fight but I don't think they will hold out against the Russian Forces.


Who agrees? Bad, but possibly there are worse alternatives. Attacking a nuclear power plant brought us close  to catastrophe anyway, and this war demontrates the nihilistic hatred that is at the heart of Putin's kleptocratic regime (however, darkly comical in its bumbling incompetence, "Brazil" not "1984",  but  perhaps more dangerous for it). So if Putin, if we take him at his word, is willing to start WW3 anyway, why should he not be stopped here, now? As for your earlier comment about Putin' s being a "trained lawyer," well he went to law school, whatever "law" meant in a state not based on the rule of law.


----------



## Altair

kev994 said:


> I’m alluding that between this thread and a bunch of posts against vaccines in a different thread, HTC posts similarly to someone who would be attempting to breed discontent.


Could be. 

But a lot of the stuff he's saying could have been said at the freedom convoy. It's in that QAnon conspiracy ecosystem. Surprised HTC is not talking about US backed biolabs in Ukraine needing to be destroyed by Russia.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500241682000146433

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497855835862708229

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500237198519676928


----------



## The Bread Guy

Polish bishops to Pope:  We can do better than that, Frankie ....








						Local churches shun Vatican's moderate stance on Russia
					

ROME (AP) — The head of the Polish bishops’ conference has done what Pope Francis has so far avoided doing: He publicly condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and urged the head of the Russian Orthodox Church to use his influence with Vladimir Putin to demand an end to the war and for Russian...




					apnews.com


----------



## Dana381

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497855835862708229



If that's a Russian tank did they stop painting a Z on them?


----------



## Spencer100

Logistics!  We'll looks like the Russian army Logistics is being reinforced


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500192529215631365


----------



## Zipperhead99

Some more analysis









						Analysis: Is Russia repeating mistakes of past wars in Ukraine?
					

Putin may have anticipated a repeat of Russia’s seizure of Crimea, but what we have seen is more similar to Chechnya.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## MilEME09

__





						Institute for the Study of War
					

Russian forces in Ukraine may have entered a possibly brief operational pause on March 5 as they prepare to resume operations against Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mykolayiv, and possibly Odesa in the next 24-48 hours. Russian troops did not launch major ground




					www.understandingwar.org
				




So it should be noted the Ukrainian counter offensive pushed all the way to the border and captured 30 pieces of kit


----------



## The Bread Guy

Remember the UKR negotiator UKR says was killed while being arrested for treason? 








						SBU shot dead member of Ukrainian negotiating delegation Kireev who was suspected of treason during his arrest – MP Honcharenko
					

During the arrest, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) shot dead a member of the Ukrainian negotiating group Denys Kireev, who was suspected of high treason, MP Oleksiy Honcharenko has said.




					en.interfax.com.ua
				



RUS state media's take:  he was one of three killed on a "special assignment" ...


			https://tass.com/emergencies/1417687
		

... with this confirmed as one of UKR's "sons" killed by UKR's mil int service (in Ukrainian - Google English translation attached)




__





						Україна втратила своїх відданих синів
					






					gur.gov.ua
				



WTF?


----------



## Mills Bomb

Remius said:


> If he is he isn’t really influencing much here.



Some of his articles are the same ones being posted r/russia (A very pro-Russian corner of the internet)

I don't know if he's a troll but he's definitely open to visiting, or being at least somewhat on the same page with, parts of the internet that are broadcasting the exact same messages in defence of Russia and are openly pro-Russian. His fox news video appeared shortly after it did on the r/russia page when it started going around those groups. Nothing wrong with seeing these perspectives to get a sense of what's going on with the other side or preventing a hivemind, but it definitely needs to be taken in context and I can see why it's a bit suspicious.

If the West was trying to do an internet block similar to Russia's, I doubt such groups would even still exist. There's no shortage of this stuff online, I've stumbled across it browsing other forums pretty often.


----------



## Remius

MilEME09 said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Institute for the Study of War
> 
> 
> Russian forces in Ukraine may have entered a possibly brief operational pause on March 5 as they prepare to resume operations against Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mykolayiv, and possibly Odesa in the next 24-48 hours. Russian troops did not launch major ground
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.understandingwar.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So it should be noted the Ukrainian counter offensive pushed all the way to the border and captured 30 pieces of kit


Nice.


----------



## Zipperhead99

Looks like Hill Billy armour is alive and well!  On a more serious note, it seems that the Ukrainians are smartly targeting Russian logistics









						Desperate Russian Rear-Area Troops Are Armoring Their Vehicles With Wood Logs
					

Absent better security, Russian drivers are doing whatever they can to survive Ukrainian ambushes.




					www.thedrive.com


----------



## Jarnhamar

Zipperhead99 said:


> Looks like Hill Billy armour is alive and well!  On a more serious note, it seems that the Ukrainians are smartly targeting Russian logistics
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Desperate Russian Rear-Area Troops Are Armoring Their Vehicles With Wood Logs
> 
> 
> Absent better security, Russian drivers are doing whatever they can to survive Ukrainian ambushes.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedrive.com


I don't have an over abundance of sympathy for Russian soldiers right now but this is pretty sad. They have to know by now that they're cannon fodder being shoved in a grinder.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500280942832885761
Okay now Ukrainian farmers have more SPGs than us


Also more looks at the aftermath of the Kharkiv counter attack 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500240859492757506


----------



## Remius

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500280942832885761
> Okay now Ukrainian farmers have more SPGs than us


They have more of everything than us now lol


----------



## suffolkowner

__





						Subscribe to read | Financial Times
					

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication




					www.ft.com
				




still working on those fighter jets


----------



## Kat Stevens

Not a very shrewd arms deal  for the Russians.


----------



## FJAG

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500280942832885761
> Okay now Ukrainian farmers have more SPGs than us





MilEME09 said:


> Also more looks at the aftermath of the Kharkiv counter attack
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500240859492757506


Interesting. A lot of the crap coming off the back of that truck is riot control gear. Hard to do riot control on folks that have AKs and Javelins.


----------



## MilEME09

FJAG said:


> Interesting. A lot of the crap coming off the back of that truck is riot control gear. Hard to do riot control on folks that have AKs and Javelins.


I'd be willing to guess it's to suppress local population after occupation


----------



## kev994

FJAG said:


> Interesting. A lot of the crap coming off the back of that truck is riot control gear. Hard to do riot control on folks that have AKs and Javelins.


Yeah, seems the Ruskies planned to have a different type of fight on their hands.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

FJAG said:


> Interesting. A lot of the crap coming off the back of that truck is riot control gear. Hard to do riot control on folks that have AKs and Javelins.


And give zero Fs about your "occupation"


----------



## The Bread Guy

Messerschmitt said:


> Biden welcomes you


Some Russians needed a lift home








						Russian Plane Lands in U.S. to Remove Diplomats Expelled for Alleged Espionage - The Moscow Times
					

A Russian plane landed at Washington's international airport Saturday to pick up about a dozen diplomats from Moscow's UN mission who are accused by Washington of espionage, authorities said.




					www.themoscowtimes.com


----------



## kev994

The Bread Guy said:


> Some Russians needed a lift home
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian Plane Lands in U.S. to Remove Diplomats Expelled for Alleged Espionage - The Moscow Times
> 
> 
> A Russian plane landed at Washington's international airport Saturday to pick up about a dozen diplomats from Moscow's UN mission who are accused by Washington of espionage, authorities said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.themoscowtimes.com


Pretty good chance the unsupervised movers are going to break all their stuff. I wonder if they were able to set up a door-to-door move….


----------



## Zipperhead99

Jarnhamar said:


> I don't have an over abundance of sympathy for Russian soldiers right now but this is pretty sad. They have to know by now that they're cannon fodder being shoved in a grinder.


Same here, but it is amazing that the Russians having been building up forces for months, yet did not build up on supplies and spare parts??? Almost wonder if Putin was trying to keep this invasion as such a big secret that stockpiling supplies and such was not permitted


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> I'd be willing to guess it's to suppress local population after occupation



Or keep the conscripts at the front


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Zipperhead99 said:


> Same here, but it is amazing that the Russians having been building up forces for months, yet did not build up on supplies and spare parts??? Almost wonder if Putin was trying to keep this invasion as such a big secret that stockpiling supplies and such was not permitted


Honestly I have seen a better battle plan on the back of a Denny's Kid's menu than what we've seen so far.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Prairie canuck said:


> It's sad. You are quite simply nothing more than a troll. You've conveniently planted yourself on the fence which allows you to lean to either side depending on the arguments placed before you. There's never an acknowledgement that opinions placed before you may be correct and that yours are wrong and you even wander off topic intentionally trying to swerve between the philosophical and facts so as to blur the lines and conveniently make it near impossible to respond to. You change the discourse to avoid it, wander into history and cultural leanings that are no longer in place. As I said it's sad. Your deep desire for attention of any type, positive or negative, has left you with the unfortunate position of aligning as the "opposite" in these posts even after being dismissed as questionably having any sort of intelligent intent when you "discuss". You are attracting attention but it's not positive and there is very little respect for any or all of your posts. Maybe it's time to step back and take a breath, go for a walk, be amongst real people and remember to wear a mask. For their protection, not yours.


What people seem to forget is that he’s supposedly a CDN military officer, active.


----------



## Prairie canuck

Czech_pivo said:


> What people seem to forget is that he’s supposedly a CDN military officer, active.


I have no idea but I would like to think that someone as "troubling" as he is not and just posing. If he is it certainly would beg the query "WTF".


----------



## TacticalTea

Prairie canuck said:


> I have no idea but I would like to think that someone as "troubling" as he is not and just posing. If he is it certainly would beg the query "WTF".


Don't we have just the Service for such queries? Brb, visiting another website.


----------



## Mills Bomb

It certainly appears the Russian casualties and equipment losses are becoming somewhat obscene. This looks substantially worse than the previous wars in Chechnya and Afghanistan. I understand the Russian army is a large beast but these losses look extremely costly, especially as sanctions are starting to hit. 

I can't imagine it's a good feeling to be a Russian conscript right now or any soldier heading to the front. This is looking like a total meat grinder. I imagine the next waves will take in the scenery of burnt hulls from previous waves as they make their way to the front. I honestly wonder what the Russian morale is like, word must have gotten out that this is a mission from hell at this point?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Mills Bomb said:


> It certainly appears the Russian casualties and equipment losses are becoming somewhat obscene. This looks substantially worse than the previous wars in Chechnya and Afghanistan. I understand the Russian army is a large beast but these losses look extremely costly, especially as sanctions are starting to hit.
> 
> I can't imagine it's a good feeling to be a Russian conscript right now or any soldier heading to the front. This is looking like a total meat grinder. I imagine the next waves will take in the scenery of burnt hulls from previous waves as they make their way to the front. I honestly wonder what the Russian morale is like, word must have gotten out that this is a mission from hell at this point?



“Bah! Une nuit de Paris remplacera tout cela!” 

- Napoleon


----------



## MilEME09

Mills Bomb said:


> It certainly appears the Russian casualties and equipment losses are becoming somewhat obscene. This looks substantially worse than the previous wars in Chechnya and Afghanistan. I understand the Russian army is a large beast but these losses look extremely costly, especially as sanctions are starting to hit.
> 
> I can't imagine it's a good feeling to be a Russian conscript right now or any soldier heading to the front. This is looking like a total meat grinder. I imagine the next waves will take in the scenery of burnt hulls from previous waves as they make their way to the front. I honestly wonder what the Russian morale is like, word must have gotten out that this is a mission from hell at this point?


Latest Ukrainian estimates are over 10k deaths, I'd say a safe guess double that or more are wounded. That said I very curious as to the state of Russian field hospitals, one can only hope they are good and properly stocked.


----------



## Quirky

Mills Bomb said:


> certainly appears the Russian casualties and equipment losses are becoming somewhat obscene. This looks substantially worse than the previous wars in Chechnya and Afghanistan. I understand the Russian army is a large beast but these losses look extremely costly, especially as sanctions are starting to hit.


It’s only been just over a week but after this is all said and done, it’s going to take Ukraine years to clear the countryside of Russian crap. Time to start a recycling business.


----------



## Prairie canuck

Quirky said:


> It’s only been just over a week but after this is all said and done, it’s going to take Ukraine years to clear the countryside of Russian crap. Time to start a recycling business.



(I may be dating myself with that image )


----------



## daftandbarmy

Prairie canuck said:


> View attachment 69231
> (I may be dating myself with that image )


----------



## Zipperhead99

MilEME09 said:


> Latest Ukrainian estimates are over 10k deaths, I'd say a safe guess double that or more are wounded. That said I very curious as to the state of Russian field hospitals, one can only hope they are good and properly stocked.


I have heard unconfirmed reports that the Russians are not even burying their dead and just leaving them where they fall....talk about improving morale!


----------



## Zipperhead99

rmc_wannabe said:


> Honestly I have seen a better battle plan on the back of a Denny's Kid's menu than what we've seen so far.


A Third World military would have been able to have conducted a better operation.  It is like watching a Three Stooges movie on a grand scale


----------



## OldSolduer

The Russians sucked in Afghanistan too. The bright spot in that war was the Mi 24 Hind AH. The Afghans respected it.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500350551342657538
more holes in Russia's AD plan, and more about the captured kit, from the 200th MRB


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500352783488364546


----------



## QV

Czech_pivo said:


> 103% of the vote.


81 million


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest #'s from UKR mil int ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

And so it begins in Mother Russia ...








						Russian Shops to Limit Food Sales to Counter Black Market - The Moscow Times
					

Retailers in Russia will limit sales of essential foodstuffs to limit black market speculation and ensure affordability, the government said Sunday, as sanctions imposed over Moscow's military incursion into Ukraine began to bite.  The trade and industry ministry over the weekend said there had...




					www.themoscowtimes.com


----------



## Good2Golf

HiTechComms said:


> Lawful according to which side wins? You can spout what the law is but in reality it rarely how its applied with skilled language manipulators.
> 
> RUSSIA to NATO don't get involved,
> NATO ok we will not
> NATO countries here is a bunch of Weapons
> RUSSIA WTF NATO?
> NATO we are not involved see its in the law.
> 
> Don't be surprised if these Foreign combatants end up in Gulags in Siberia.


RUSSIA to UKRAINE: hand back your nukes and we will leave you in peace
UKRAINE hands back it’s nukes and co-signs the Budapest Agreement to entrench Russia’s promised permanent non-aggression/sovereign Ukraine territory
RUSSIA does RUSSIA


----------



## NavyShooter

An interesting position paper on Russia's lack of success in controlling the air and gaining superiority.










						Is the Russian Air Force Actually Incapable of Complex Air Operations?
					

More than a week into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Air Force has yet to commence large-scale operations. Inactivity in the first few days could be ascribed to various factors, but the continued absence of major air operations now raises serious capability questions.




					rusi.org


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500461868229533698
Russia struck a civilian airport


----------



## The Bread Guy

An old "homage to RUS airborne forces" with ... updated English subtitles


----------



## MilEME09

Watch
					






					fb.watch
				




Video of an interview with a Russian commander who surrendered. By the description of him saying they were part of the tail party in order to pick up damaged equipment, it sounds like this man commanded their recovery assets.


----------



## dapaterson

More on RUS logistics.









						The Russian Army Depends On Civilians to Keep It Supplied. This Could Be A Problem In Ukraine.
					

The Kremlin handed over to a single commercial firm much of the responsibility for supporting front-line battalions. It's not clear how effective it will be amid combat operations.




					www.forbes.com


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500493414281977856
Russia will not discuss an end to the ear unless all demands met. That will not happen until Ukraine is defeated and occupied


----------



## SupersonicMax

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500493414281977856
> Russia will not discuss an end to the ear unless all demands met. That will not happen until Ukraine is defeated and occupied


Are there Russian demands unknown to Putin!?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500493414281977856
> Russia will not discuss an end to the ear unless all demands met. That will not happen until Ukraine is defeated and occupied


Having some Monty Python "The Black Knight" sketch vibes right now...


----------



## MilEME09

https://imgur.com/a/059t5FJ


Just to show the other side, Ukrainian civilians give captured Russian tea, food, and a phone to call his mother ti say he is okay.


----------



## lenaitch

MilEME09 said:


> https://imgur.com/a/059t5FJ
> 
> 
> Just to show the other side, Ukrainian civilians give captured Russian tea, food, and a phone to call his mother ti say he is okay.


This clip was posted and discussed - at length, some might say _ad nauseam_ - several days ago, to the point that it was cut out for its own thread.


----------



## dapaterson

A very different perspective on "Going postal".  (A woefully misunderstood trade in the CAF, for the record).


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500224950136979462


----------



## suffolkowner

dapaterson said:


> A very different perspective on "Going postal".  (A woefully misunderstood trade in the CAF, for the record).
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500224950136979462



Curious if we exagerate the requirements to be effective contributor in the war effort?  Did this postman have previous training or experience or did the just hand him a Stinger or Igla and tell him to point and shoot?


----------



## kev994

suffolkowner said:


> Curious if we exagerate the requirements to be effective contributor in the war effort?  Did this postman have previous training or experience or did the just hand him a Stinger or Igla and tell him to point and shoot?


Probably watched a TikTok instructional video


----------



## suffolkowner

kev994 said:


> Probably watched a TikTok instructional video


it was well worth the time then!


----------



## Jarnhamar

I'm not one for propaganda memes but this was clever (also reminds me of differences in leadership I've seen in the CAF with leaders).


----------



## Jarnhamar

suffolkowner said:


> Curious if we exagerate the requirements to be effective contributor in the war effort?  Did this postman have previous training or experience or did the just hand him a Stinger or Igla and tell him to point and shoot?



Many weapon systems can be pretty easy to operate with little or no training. Pick something up, turn the power on, aim at something, squeeze the trigger when you hear a steady tone. Lots of weapon systems have instructions right on the device or can be found on youtube.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500490773082562560
Meanwhile the green party comes under fire in quebec


----------



## Remius

suffolkowner said:


> Curious if we exagerate the requirements to be effective contributor in the war effort?  Did this postman have previous training or experience or did the just hand him a Stinger or Igla and tell him to point and shoot?


How long has conscription existed in Ukraine?  I think it’s not impossible that a retired postal worker would have had some basic training.  Possibly also some reserve time (or whatever equivalent Ukraine has like their TDBs) maybe even a 3 year stint in a previous life.  Lots of Ukrainians have been fighting in Crimea as well.

Either way.  A good shot.

There is something to be said about the proportion of Ukrainians that have received even some basic military training vs say Canada.  Not saying we need mandatory military service but I suspect it is paying off in Ukraine.


----------



## Remius

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500490773082562560
> Meanwhile the green party comes under fire in quebec


Didn’t realise Hightechcomms was a member of the Green Party…


----------



## WLSC

Jarnhamar said:


> Many weapon systems can be pretty easy to operate with little or no training. Pick something up, turn the power on, aim at something, squeeze the trigger when you hear a steady tone. Lots of weapon systems have instructions right on the device or can be found on youtube.
> 
> View attachment 69238


Even with that, some people manage to fire it backwards 🤭😁


----------



## armrdsoul77

The Bread Guy said:


> An old "homage to RUS airborne forces" with ... updated English subtitles


I think I found the source of the inspiration for their video


----------



## NavyShooter

For those on F-book, here's an interesting read:





__





						Log into Facebook
					

Log into Facebook to start sharing and connecting with your friends, family, and people you know.




					www.facebook.com
				




Here's text copied/pasted from his post from this morning:

OK, here we go, a review for the last 24 hours, i.e. 5 Mar 22, 10th Day since the Russian aggression.

CAA - Combined Arms Army (Russia)
BTG - Battalion Tactical Group (Russia)
GTA - Guards Tank Army (Russia)
GTD - Guards Tank Division (Russia)
MRB - Motorized Rifle Brigade (throw a G in the front if Guards)
MRD - Motorized Rifle Division (ditto for the G for Guards). Majority of the Russian Ground Forces are Motorized Rifle (i.e. Mechanized Infantry with supporting tanks)
NW – north-west
RFA – Russian Federation Army/Russian Armed Forces
RF-9xxxx - Russian military aviation registration
UCAV – unmanned combat aerial vehicle
VDV - Vozdushno-desantnye voyska (Russian Airborne forces)
VKS - Vozdushno-kosmicheskiye sily (Air-Space Force, Russia)
West OSK – Western Military District, RFA

*STRATEGIC*

Thanks to new info, by now it’s clear that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is completely botched up: indeed, falling apart. No doubt, the Russians are going to press on, and the war is going to go on. But, Putin’s original intention has failed. Russians might have the means to conquer most of the country, but no means to hold it.

Putin had only one plan: capture or kill Zelensky, force him to sign a capitulation, then replace him. And this in a matter of 1-3 days after commencing hostilities. That was the reason for massive deployment of VDV troops at the start of the war. This didn’t work. Ukrainian resistance was much more fierce than expected, Zelensky survived, the VDV were cut to pieces, the opening blow missed all of its aims. Worse yet, the West reacted in a way Putin never expected: with sanctions that caught Putin entirely unprepared, and are debilitating all of Russia, in turn destabilising Putin’s rule. Having no ‘Plan B’, Putin is now reduced to blame and threat.

The Russian ground forces were then rushed in without having a clear idea about what were they supposed to do. No surprise their advance parties run out of fuel and food in the process, got ambushed etc. Of course, Putin is not going to give up: through the last few days, his army has brought in everything it had arrayed around Ukraine, and is now trying to do the best out of the situation. Indeed, it’s hauling in even completely obsolete equipment from the Far East. However, this should not mean the Russians can't go on like the last 7-8 days: they still have enough troops, they still have enough ammo, and they are hauling in all the supplies they can get.

Ukrainians were caught by surprise: Putin’s decision to invade was irrational to the degree neither his own FSB, nor ‘even’ Zelensky  expected it, regardless of all the warnings. But, the army was in position and the mass of the air force evaded the opening Russian blow. This ‘sheer survival’ early on, and Putin’s irrational planning, bought the time for the Ukrainians to mobilise and put up ferocious resistance. With help of the Western intel, their commanders managed to avoid destruction of their major units so far, while causing massive losses to the invader.

So much for the first 10 days of this war.

Over the last few days, this conflict entered a new, dirty phase. Having failed to overrun any of major cities of Ukraine but Kherson, the Russians have  re-directed their intentions. Having proven unable to destroy the Ukrainian Armed Forces, they’re rushing to surround major cities in the East, to capture nuclear power plants, and to establish a land corridor to Transnistria. This might be an indication of intention to create a new ‘Plan B’, along which they would secure Ukraine east of Dnepr, cut off the country from the sea, and cut it off from its primary sources of energy. That would grant them very favourable conditions in the case of any kind of serious negotiations – which, no doubt, are already underway (via intermediaries, of course).

Meanwhile, Putin’s armed forces are going to search for the most cynical of all solutions: that of driving as much of the Ukrainian civilians out of the country. They’re going to savage eastern Ukraine in the process: no population = no guerrilla/partisans behind their frontline. That's free along what we've seen in Syria of 2015-2017 (not to talk about Afghanistan, Ethiopia and Mozambique of the 1980s, or Chechnya of the 1990s):  ‘Putin or we burn the country’, and ‘you want democracy? Go West and have it’

Considering this, and ironically, almost every involved party is now actually interested in extending this conflict: Ukrainians in hope of getting the West involved; the West in hope the Ukrainians are going to maul the entire Russian armed forces (and they’re on the best way of achieving exactly that), and Putin in hope of causing maximal damage – to Ukraine and to the EU – so to keep his actual enemy (EU) preoccupied with ‘something else but Putin’: destabilised by reactions of populists, xenophobes and Neo-Nazis (many of them linked to Putin for decades already) through the influx of millions of Ukrainian refugees, therough rapidly increasing energy prices etc.

*AIR*

They Keystone Cops in Moscow claim the VKS fought a major air battle over Zhitomir yesterday, and shot down four Ukrainian Su-27 interceptors. While there is no evidence in support of this claim, at least some sort of an aerial clash is very likely, then immediately after several formations of Su-34s have completely demolished the Armour Works of Zhitomyr.

In turn, the VKS suffered a number of confirmed losses: these are going to be discussed depending on the frontline, bellow.
Additionally, this morning the VKS lost one jet over Kharkiv (where there are 6-7 Russian aircraft circling above, all the time), and - reportedly (this is not confirmed yet) - in the Odessa area.

*NORTH*

The 36th CAA returned to the battlefield yesterday, with a major attack on Irpin from the west. The Ukrainians claim to have repelled this advance, but much of Irpin and surrounding towns were savaged by artillery barrages.

For reasons explained in my review yesterday, and – even more so: above - the RFA currently cannot launch any kind of major operations into Ukraine further west. Most likely, Putin has no interest in doing so: quite on the contrary, I’m assessing him as ‘keen’ to keep western Ukraine ‘open’ for the flow of refugees in western direction, even if this means it’s also open for NATO’s (foremost US) efforts to keep the Ukrainians resupplied.

*NORTH EAST*

On the eastern side of Dnepr, the 36th CAA has managed to outflank the Ukrainian brigade facing it, but the BTG 200th Motor Rifle Brigade was first checked (on Friday) and then mauled (yesterday) in attempt to reach the eastern outskirts of Kyiv.

Chernihiv was exposed to several air strikes yesterday, but the local garrison is holding out and keeping the 41st CAA at bay. Its SA-8s have shot down a VKS Su-34 over the city yesterday: both crewmembers ejected, but one was killed and the other wounded when descending under parachutes atop of roofs of local buildings.

The Ukrainian 1st Tank Brigade is keeping the corridor from south – via Nizhnyn – into Chernihiv open, but that’s a close call. Wouldn’t be surprised if Chernihiv gets completely cut off today.

The 2nd GTA managed a major breakthrough of the Ukrainian defence between Nizhnyn and Priluky, and is currently attacking eastern outskirts of Kyiv.

The 1st GTA is following in fashion along the southern flank of 2nd GTA’s advance: I found no indications of it trying to move in direction of Cherkasy or Poltava.

Ukrainian garrison of Sumy is holding out: the town is subjected to intensive artillery barrages.

North-east of Kharkiv, the Ukrainian 92nd Mechanised has mauled the BTG of the 144th MRD, and reached the border to Russia. There’s a complete ‘EMCON’ on all reports from that area, though, and right now I’m not sure if the Ukrainians have a clear idea what to do with this success. At least they’ve bought plenty of time, then now it’s going to take the 6th CAA some 2-3 days to reorganise, bring in additional troops and get back to attacking Kharkiv. Of course, the city remains subjected to severe artillery barrages and air strikes.

Further south, the 6th CA linked-up with the 2nd AC advancing from Luhansk. Apparently, the Ukrainian 53rd Mechanised Brigade managed to avoid an encirclement north-east of Izlum.
*
EAST*

The Ukrainians seem to have managed to establish a new frontline west of Donetsk. In the south, their 56th Motor Rifle Brigade and parts of the 54th Mechanised have held off Russian assaults for four days, while keeping a narrow corridor into Mariupol open. This enabled extraction of most of the Azov Battalion out of the surrounded port – despite vicious efforts of the Sparta Battalion (Separatists) to prevent this - but greatly weakened the local defences. This battle was a savage one - for both sides. The VKS lost at least 3 Su-25s and a Mi-8, the 54th Mechanised most of its tanks and artillery (including at least two BM-30 Uragan MRLS).

Mariupol is constantly subjected to artillery barrages, and the ‘humanitarian ceasefire’ announced by the Keystone Cops in Moscow yesterday was just a scam. The mayor and his deputy fell for the ploy, and organised 30 buses to evacuate about 5000 civilians and the wounded, but the Russians subjected the convoy to artillery fire, and destroyed 21 buses. A new attempt was announced for today, but, sorry: I consider this pointless. It’s all over the same game like in Aleppo of 2016-2017 again: you cease, we fire.

*SOUTH*

There are next to no reports from Konotop, so I guess the 58th CAA has surrounded it. That said, Zusko seems not to be keen to advance on Zaporozhye - yet: most likely, he’s both preoccupied with his western flank, and lacking troops and supplies for more. Moreover, I wouldn’t recommend any Russians to press for the City of Zaporozhye right now: RUMINT has it, the local defences are well-prepared and consisting of people both furious and extremely eager to fight the Russians.

In the West, Zusko’s 58th CAA has failed to breach the defences of Mikolayiv in two days of sustained infantry attacks and artillery barrages. At least as important is the fact that his forward party failed to secure Voznesensk. Zusko thus launched a heliborne attack on this town. This is what resulted in the ‘turkey shot’ we’ve followed ‘almost live’ on the internet. The helicopter formation was cut to pieces already while approaching its target: a Mi-24, two Mi-34s, a Su-30SM, and two Mi-8s were confirmed as shot down using Polish-made Piorun MANPADs. Whatever VDV-troops survived this slaughter, were then cut to pieces on the ground. Voznesensk is firmly in Ukrainian hands, clearly illustrating the fact that the Ukrainian defences of ‘even’ such places well behind the frontline are nowadays up and ready. The 247th Guards ‘Cossack’ Regiment VDV was annihilated in the course of this attack: even its CO, Colonel Zizevsky, was KIA. Seems, the 58th CAA will have to find a different way to Odessa and Transnistria.

Talking about Transnistria: alerted by the approach of the 58th CAA, the government of Moldova has announced general mobilisation. EU citizens are advised to leave the country. The Russian mafia in charge of the Transnisrtia has mobilised its ‘armed forces’, too (these consist of something like two small brigades).


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500502132721688577
Russia seems to be trying to intimidate eastern Europe. Also below is a Jane's analysis of the Russian Air force.






__





						Ukraine conflict: Is the VKS underperforming?
					

Military doctrine dictates that neutralising opposition air defences and air forces to enable freedom of movement for ground elements and facilitate air-to-ground...



					www.janes.com
				





Edit:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500469003780771846
More war crimes potentially


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500502132721688577
> Russia seems to be trying to intimidate eastern Europe. Also below is a Jane's analysis of the Russian Air force.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine conflict: Is the VKS underperforming?
> 
> 
> Military doctrine dictates that neutralising opposition air defences and air forces to enable freedom of movement for ground elements and facilitate air-to-ground...
> 
> 
> 
> www.janes.com


''Countries that impose sanctions are engaging in acts of war''

''Countries that make jokes about Putin are engaging in acts of war''

At what point do we call the bluff and put an end to this farce of an invasion. The politicians are meeting in Europe this week, they better get something done and not just talk, and talk, and talk, and talk, and talk some more.


----------



## suffolkowner

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500454581767127051
Get off the pot!

Not sure whats so hard about this move the jets over get replacement F-16's or Gripens and in the meantime we increase NATO rotations. 

Do we still have F-18's in Europe/Romania?


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500502132721688577
> Russia seems to be trying to intimidate eastern Europe. Also below is a Jane's analysis of the Russian Air force.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine conflict: Is the VKS underperforming?
> 
> 
> Military doctrine dictates that neutralising opposition air defences and air forces to enable freedom of movement for ground elements and facilitate air-to-ground...
> 
> 
> 
> www.janes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Edit:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500469003780771846
> More war crimes potentially


They can barely hold their own in Ukraine good luck pushing anything else.

The only successful thing they've done is launch missile attacks on apartments,hospitals and schools


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> They can barely hold their own in Ukraine good luck pushing anything else.
> 
> The only successful thing they've done is launch missile attacks on apartments,hospitals and schools


Yeap and we will continue to do nothing past what we are now. We need to give then antiship missiles to counter the black sea fleet, stop that fleet and we save Odessa. Get Belarus off the battlefield, by force if needed.


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> Yeap and we will continue to do nothing past what we are now. We need to give then antiship missiles to counter the black sea fleet, stop that fleet and we save Odessa. Get Belarus off the battlefield, by force if needed.


Yes I would like to see this. What missiles and delivery sytems are available? Be good to see how a ship actually deals with a missile attack for real. Good time to see how those missile marines function


----------



## rmc_wannabe

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500502132721688577
> Russia seems to be trying to intimidate eastern Europe. Also below is a Jane's analysis of the Russian Air force.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine conflict: Is the VKS underperforming?
> 
> 
> Military doctrine dictates that neutralising opposition air defences and air forces to enable freedom of movement for ground elements and facilitate air-to-ground...
> 
> 
> 
> www.janes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Edit:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500469003780771846
> More war crimes potentially


I think the Russians are crying wolf now. If this is the state of their invading forces, Ibwouldnt be surprised if there were  a few moths in their missile silos more than anything else..


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> Yes I would like to see this. What missiles and delivery sytems are available? Be good to see how a ship actually deals with a missile attack for real. Good time to see how those missile marines function


Can't find anything that might be in Polish or other inventories that isn't western, but they probably have MIG compatible missiles. No joy on ground based launchers other then newer systems like HiMars


----------



## Dana381

rmc_wannabe said:


> I think the Russians are crying wolf now. If this is the state of their invading forces, Ibwouldnt be surprised if there were  a few moths in their missile silos more than anything else..



Russia has to keep up appearances till the end. It reminds me of the scene in Cinderella man where his agent was sitting on folding chairs in his empty fancy apartment wearing his nice suit. Can't let anyone know your suffering or they won't take you seriously!


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499013223294582790


----------



## Haggis

rmc_wannabe said:


> I think the Russians are crying wolf now. If this is the state of their invading forces, Ibwouldnt be surprised if there were  a few moths in their missile silos more than anything else..


If they are able to launch just one,  whether it reaches it's intended taget or not, it's going to end catastrophically.


----------



## MilEME09

Haggis said:


> If they are able to launch just one,  whether it reaches it's intended taget or not, it's going to end catastrophically.


If they launch one, I do have confidence it can be intercepted, 1000? Not so much


----------



## Haggis

MilEME09 said:


> If they launch one, I do have confidence it can be intercepted, 1000? Not so much


Whether it's one or 1000, whether it lands or not, the nuclear threshold will have been crossed and that's going to be a "holy shit!" moment around the globe.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500160062354034689
It does double as firewood though when you get stuck and/or run out of fuel


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500374879908114438


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500301348780199937


----------



## Czech_pivo

Not sure if this link or info has been posted previously. If it has, sorry - if it hasn’t, take the time to read this long article as it’s telling, insightful and down right a bit scary in some ways.
I’ve said before about painting Russian into a corner and the dangers that go with it. Each day that goes by and the Ukrainians continue to pommel them, it will only get worse. I like our choices/options less each day. I’m going to go out on a limb and call it, NATO gets pulled into this sooner rather than later.

Thread by @igorsushko on Thread Reader App


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

HiTechComms said:


> Everyone is making assumptions. I don't know. As I said I rather be Neutral in the whole ordeal. Not taking any sides. Support Red cross, support refugees.. No matter how much squawking is made its not going to change the current situation. The only upside is that negotiation are under way, granted they are inherently unfair to Ukraine.
> Usually the larger party has the upper hand no matter what, even Canada got strong armed in USMCA to make concessions. The means to making concessions differ but the 800 lb Gorilla usually gets its way. Yes Russia is using Military to settle a Political agreement.
> 
> Nothing is stopping any of you supporting Ukraine. I will support through my ways, I simply will not support aggression in Ukraine that might escalate the situation internationally. I don't want Poland to get Nuked, I do have family there and I believe if we screw up internationally the Russian will let the Nukes fly. Yes I am afraid.


This is the most well reasoned post made in this thread over the past few days. I'm sure I will take flak for saying it. 🤣

I too find it quite funny that people #WaNtPeAcE but are more than willing to pump a Country full of weapons to ensure that doesn't happen.

Ukraine is a pawn, it's a geographic friction point between the West and the East.  The Ukrainian people are the sacrifical lambs being used by two different powers for their proxy conflict.


----------



## Zipperhead99

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500160062354034689
> It does double as firewood though when you get stuck and/or run out of fuel


And burns very nicely when hit by a Panzerfaust 3 or M-72


----------



## Quirky

Czech_pivo said:


> I’m going to go out on a limb and call it, NATO gets pulled into this sooner rather than later.



This needs to happen sooner rather than later. Russian Army is purposely committing mass geocide in the Ukraine.


----------



## Altair

Quirky said:


> This needs to happen sooner rather than later. Russian Army is purposely committing mass geocide suicide in the Ukraine.


Fixed


----------



## Zipperhead99

dapaterson said:


> More on RUS logistics.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Russian Army Depends On Civilians to Keep It Supplied. This Could Be A Problem In Ukraine.
> 
> 
> The Kremlin handed over to a single commercial firm much of the responsibility for supporting front-line battalions. It's not clear how effective it will be amid combat operations.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.forbes.com


Great article and certainly something that Western militaries should take note of.....dont go cheap on logistics!


----------



## SupersonicMax

Czech_pivo said:


> No sure if this link or info has been posted previously. If it has, sorry - if it hasn’t, take the time to read this long article as it’s telling, insightful and down right a bit scary in some ways.
> I’ve said before about painting Russian I to a corner and the dangers that go with it. Each day that goes back and the Ukrainians continue to pommel them if will only get worse. I like our choices/options less each day. I’m going to go out on a limb and call it, NATO gets pulled into this sooner rather than later.
> 
> Thread by @igorsushko on Thread Reader App


I always thought we, Canada, were weak when it came to “speaking truth to power.”  Turns out Russia takes that weakness to a new level! 

“ So you research the mode of attack, and you are being told that it’s just a hypothetical and not to stress on the details, so you understand the report is only intended as a checkbox for some bureaucrat, and the *conclusions of the analysis must be positive for Russia*.”


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> This is the most well reasoned post made in this thread over the past few days. I'm sure I will take flak for saying it too. 🤣
> 
> I too find it quite funny that people #WaNtPeAcE but are more than willing to pump a Country full of weapons to ensure that doesn't happen.
> 
> Ukraine is a pawn, it's a geographic friction point between the West and the East.  The Ukrainian people are the sacrifical lambs being used by two different powers for their proxy conflict.


My argument originally was we (the West) could have solved it years ago by dropping a NATO DIV in UKR, we didn’t.    

It isn’t just the Ukrainian people that are being used, and IMHO the currently policy of Arm and Watch has no less danger to it than direct NATO intervention.  

Why? Because at the rate Russia is going it won’t matter if NATO troops are in direct conflict or not, the cupboard of Vlad is starting to get thinner and a few more weeks at the current pace will have him running on empty, leaving him his Nuclear option or running back to Russia.  

If we had stop at the start and said, F you, Ukraine will be defended, it never would have gotten to the part it is.  

While I don’t view the Western Leaders as culpable as #FuckPutin, we have to acknowledge that our countries politicians knew what was going to happen and allowed it to happen, in doing so pushed the world closer to the giant reset button. 

I for one, believe that we have a moral imperative to act in the Ukraine beyond our current COA, but I also understand that to do so, will result in a large risk, that needs to be clearly and carefully explained to Russia that while we are going to go into the Ukraine we will honor Russia 1991 borders and no NATO troops (or Ukrainian forces) will cross the border - unless it’s at the behest of the Russian government for humanitarian reasons, and even with Russian concurrences those troops will do it with UN oversight and not be a permanent force inside the Russian borders.


----------



## Zipperhead99

Had to post this!


----------



## Jarnhamar

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I too find it quite funny that people #WaNtPeAcE but are more than willing to pump a Country full of weapons to ensure that doesn't happen.


2/3 of Canadians were apparently ready to call in the army to deal with parked trucks. Some of the commentary was pretty violent.


----------



## MilEME09

Jarnhamar said:


> 2/3 of Canadians were apparently ready to call in the army to deal with parked trucks. Some of the commentary was pretty violent.


People have the not in my backyard mentality, until it effects them directly, they don't care


----------



## Altair

Humphrey Bogart said:


> This is the most well reasoned post made in this thread over the past few days. I'm sure I will take flak for saying it. 🤣
> 
> I too find it quite funny that people #WaNtPeAcE but are more than willing to pump a Country full of weapons to ensure that doesn't happen.
> 
> Ukraine is a pawn, it's a geographic friction point between the West and the East.  The Ukrainian people are the sacrifical lambs being used by two different powers for their proxy conflict.


Ubi desertum faciunt, pacem appellant.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

KevinB said:


> My argument originally was we (the West) could have solved it years ago by dropping a NATO DIV in UKR, we didn’t.
> 
> It isn’t just the Ukrainian people that are being used, and IMHO the currently policy of Arm and Watch has no less danger to it than direct NATO intervention.
> 
> Why? Because at the rate Russia is going it won’t matter if NATO troops are in direct conflict or not, the cupboard of Vlad is starting to get thinner and a few more weeks at the current pace will have him running on empty, leaving him his Nuclear option or running back to Russia.
> 
> If we had stop at the start and said, F you, Ukraine will be defended, it never would have gotten to the part it is.
> 
> While I don’t view the Western Leaders as culpable as #FuckPutin, we have to acknowledge that our countries politicians knew what was going to happen and allowed it to happen, in doing so pushed the world closer to the giant reset button.
> 
> I for one, believe that we have a moral imperative to act in the Ukraine beyond our current COA, but I also understand that to do so, will result in a large risk, that needs to be clearly and carefully explained to Russia that while we are going to go into the Ukraine we will honor Russia 1991 borders and no NATO troops (or Ukrainian forces) will cross the border - unless it’s at the behest of the Russian government for humanitarian reasons, and even with Russian concurrences those troops will do it with UN oversight and not be a permanent force inside the Russian borders.


I think we also need to acknowledge that the State of Ukraine as it is today, much like the former Yugoslavia (which btw is now 7 separate countries), is not a truly unified state.

Regardless of whatever your views on elections and their apparent fairness or not, there is no consensus that Crimea, Donbass, Luhansk  want to remain a part of Ukraine.  Then you also have curious places like Transnistria that want to be Russian as well.







This is essentially a civil war fought along ethno-linguistic lines with some intersections with nationalism, politics and ideology.

And if we are going to go back and look at what exactly triggered this, lets look at the electoral results in 2010:






And then consider the subsequent revolution in 2014.









						Revolution of Dignity - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500557676459212802
China beginning to signal its discontent?


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Ubi desertum faciunt, pacem appellant.


They created a desert, and called it peace.

Latin jokes never get old.


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I think we also need to acknowledge that the State of Ukraine as it is today, much like the former Yugoslavia (which btw is now 7 separate countries), is not a truly unified state.
> 
> Regardless of whatever your views on elections and their apparent fairness or not, there is no consensus that Crimea, Donbass, Luhansk  want to remain a part of Ukraine.  Then you also have curious places like Transnistria that want to be Russian as well.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This is essentially a civil war fought along ethno-linguistic lines with some intersections with nationalism, politics and ideology.
> 
> And if we are going to go back and look at what exactly triggered this, lets look at the electoral results in 2010:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And then consider the subsequent revolution in 2014.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Revolution of Dignity - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.m.wikipedia.org


I would suggest that probably no longer applies, but one also agree that there would be a relook at things after Russia is removed from the UKR borders.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> They created a desert, and called it peace.
> 
> Latin jokes never get old.



Funny that history rhymes so much.


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I think we also need to acknowledge that the State of Ukraine as it is today, much like the former Yugoslavia (which btw is now 7 separate countries), is not a truly unified state.
> 
> Regardless of whatever your views on elections and their apparent fairness or not, there is no consensus that Crimea, Donbass, Luhansk  want to remain a part of Ukraine.  Then you also have curious places like Transnistria that want to be Russian as well.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This is essentially a civil war fought along ethno-linguistic lines with some intersections with nationalism, politics and ideology.
> 
> And if we are going to go back and look at what exactly triggered this, lets look at the electoral results in 2010:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And then consider the subsequent revolution in 2014.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Revolution of Dignity - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.m.wikipedia.org


A great number of ethnic Russians in the south support Ukraine so its hard to tell right now how the political dust would settle.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> A great number of ethnic Russians in the south support Ukraine so its hard to tell right now how the political dust would settle.


It's funny how being pro Russia in policies does not equal being invaded by Russia. 

Anymore than Canadians being supportive of the United states does not equal being invaded by the United States.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Jarnhamar said:


> 2/3 of Canadians were apparently ready to call in the army to deal with parked trucks. Some of the commentary was pretty violent.


People are more than willing to throw their weight behind something and virtue signal, especially when it costs them nothing and someone else has to clean up the mess.

It's the ultimate form of privilege.

Likewise, the current support for the Ukraine is more about having the opportunity to stick it to the Russians than it is about backing the Ukraine. 

Ukraine as it was will cease to exist when this war is over.


----------



## Czech_pivo

suffolkowner said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500454581767127051
> Get off the pot!
> 
> Not sure whats so hard about this move the jets over get replacement F-16's or Gripens and in the meantime we increase NATO rotations.
> 
> Do we still have F-18's in Europe/Romania?


Our CF-18s left at Christmas.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> A great number of ethnic Russians in the south support Ukraine so its hard to tell right now how the political dust would settle.


What do you define as the South?  Do you include Crimea and the approaches in that equation?  How about in Donbass and Luhansk?  

It's not as clear cut as you've made it out to be, we wouldn't be having a civil war if it were.


----------



## suffolkowner

There has been a stronger Ukrainian movement over the last 10 years and especially since the 2014 invasion as you can see in the 2014 election results below or the 2019 results









						2019 Ukrainian parliamentary election - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




removing the occupied Donbas and Crimea greatly reduces the amount of Russians in Ukraine and other ethnicities such as Hungarians and Romanians are really too small to matter


----------



## Furniture

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I think we also need to acknowledge that the State of Ukraine as it is today, much like the former Yugoslavia (which btw is now 7 separate countries), is not a truly unified state.
> 
> Regardless of whatever your views on elections and their apparent fairness or not, there is no consensus that Crimea, Donbass, Luhansk  want to remain a part of Ukraine.  Then you also have curious places like Transnistria that want to be Russian as well.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This is essentially a civil war fought along ethno-linguistic lines with some intersections with nationalism, politics and ideology.
> 
> And if we are going to go back and look at what exactly triggered this, lets look at the electoral results in 2010:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And then consider the subsequent revolution in 2014.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Revolution of Dignity - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.m.wikipedia.org


I'm pretty sure a dude from Germany used a similar argument to justify annexing parts of a country once too... That ended well for everyone.


----------



## suffolkowner

Czech_pivo said:


> Our CF-18s left at Christmas.


Well its time to send them back


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> Well its time to send them back


Send a whole squadron


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> Send a whole squadron


I think thats going to have to happen if the Mig-29's get transferred to Ukraine


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Furniture said:


> I'm pretty sure a dude from Germany used a similar argument to justify annexing parts of a country once too... That ended well for everyone.


Yes he did, but those areas were also formerly German but were annexed after WW1 (A German would say they were stolen).  

Amazing how history doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes. 😉

The mistakes also seem to continuously repeat themselves.  Such as the desire to seek endless reparations and punishment from the losers:  a direct contributor to the rise of ultra-nationalism in 1920s/1930s Germany.


----------



## Furniture

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Yes he did, but those areas were also formerly German but were annexed after WW1 (A German would say they were stolen).
> 
> Amazing how history doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes. 😉
> 
> The mistakes also seem to continuously repeat themselves.  Such as the desire to seek endless reparations and punishment from the losers:  a direct contributor to the rise of ultra-nationalism in 1920s/1930s Germany.


My worry is Ukraine is starting to rhyme with Czechoslovakia, and people seem oddly comfortable with the rhyming. 

In 10 years when Russia wants Latvia back, do we say "it's not worth the fight" then too? The USSR used to own Europe right up to the heart of Germany, should we allow Russian tanks to roll through Berlin if it means _we_ don't have a war?


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500568587303596033
Russian equipment losses keep mounting and ot looks like Ukrainian forces near Kharkiv are trying to exploit the chaos caused by their counter attack.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Yes he did, but those areas were also formerly German but were annexed after WW1 (A German would say they were stolen).
> 
> Amazing how history doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes. 😉
> 
> The mistakes also seem to continuously repeat themselves.  Such as the desire to seek endless reparations and punishment from the losers:  a direct contributor to the rise of ultra-nationalism in 1920s/1930s Germany.


Those areas were Austrian, not German.
They were never German but Austrian.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> Those areas were Austrian, not German.
> They were never German but Austrian.


Well, Austria was part of Germany by then, so in some circular type of logic, Germany owned Austrias claims?

Or we can chalk it all up to madmen being madmen.


----------



## FJAG

Furniture said:


> My worry is Ukraine is starting to rhyme with Czechoslovakia, and people seem oddly comfortable with the rhyming.
> 
> In 10 years when Russia wants Latvia back, do we say "it's not worth the fight" then too? The USSR used to own Europe right up to the heart of Germany, should we allow Russian tanks to roll through Berlin if it means _we_ don't have a war?


I guess the simple answer is that you can say the difference between Latvia and the Ukraine is the former is a member of the NATO treaty and the latter isn't.

That obviously doesn't answer the real question and we're never sure what the future will bring.

In a lot of ways the answer is in convincing Russia's leadership - whether political or oligarchical - that their lot in life would be easier in returning to a position of neutrality with Europe, participating in its economical structure and getting their delusions of grandeur/inferiority complex out of their heads. Their security is guaranteed by their nuclear weapons. The recreation of a buffer of Warsaw Pactish vassal states is unnecessary and probably undesirable. Trying to rebuild a "nation" on ethic lines on a continent that has been blending ethnicities for almost two hundred years is counterproductive.

🍻


----------



## Altair

Humphrey Bogart said:


> People are more than willing to throw their weight behind something and virtue signal, especially when it costs them nothing and someone else has to clean up the mess.
> 
> It's the ultimate form of privilege.
> 
> Likewise, the current support for the Ukraine is more about having the opportunity to stick it to the Russians than it is about backing the Ukraine.
> 
> Ukraine as it was will cease to exist when this war is over.


Not with what we have seen from the Russian army thus far, no it wont. 

As long as the west can keep weapons and supplies entering the country, and Russia fails at basic logistics, this is looking like a rerun of the Polish Soviet war, the Finnish winter war, the Russo Japanese war, or any war where Russia fails to achieve even the bare minimum competency of warfighting. 

Russia STILL does not have air superiority. It's day 11?


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Czech_pivo said:


> Those areas were Austrian, not German.
> They were never German but Austrian.


Konigsberg was German, Danzig was German, the Rhineland was German.  The Sudetenland was part of Austria-Hugary but Czechoslovakia wasn't even 20 years old when it was re-annexed.

The map in Europe has changed as often as I change my underwear.  It will change again before you know it.


----------



## Prairie canuck

Being ethnically Russian in Ukraine does not equate with being pro-Putin. Quite the opposite. They enjoy democracy and all that comes with it. Last thing they want is to return to a dictatorial oppressive state that hordes the wealth for its leaders. Amazing what a free press and some I-phones can do.
History is just that, the past, It's where Putin wants to return to. The irony is if Russia was fully democratic with a western economy it has the potential and resource wealth to be a super power economically. But that requires wealth to be shared. 
Ukrainians can see the future is with the west, not under a boot.


----------



## Altair

Prairie canuck said:


> Being ethnically Russian in Ukraine does not equate with being pro-Putin. Quite the opposite. They enjoy democracy and all that comes with it. Last thing they want is to return to a dictatorial oppressive state that hordes the wealth for its leaders. Amazing what a free press and some I-phones can do.
> History is just that, the past, It's where Putin wants to return to. The irony is if Russia was fully democratic with a western economy it has the potential and resource wealth to be a super power economically. But that requires wealth to be shared.
> Ukrainians can see the future is with the west, not under a boot.


The average Russian makes less than the average Indian.

Who would voluntarily choose that economic and political system? Especially looking at the dynamic rise in fortunes of ex soviet bloc countries.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Altair said:


> Not with what we have seen from the Russian army thus far, no it wont.
> 
> As long as the west can keep weapons and supplies entering the country, and Russia fails at basic logistics, this is looking like a rerun of the Polish Soviet war, the Finnish winter war, the Russo Japanese war, or any war where Russia fails to achieve even the bare minimum competency of warfighting.
> 
> Russia STILL does not have air superiority. It's day 11?


I think you are confusing terms.  They have air superiority, what they don't have is air supremacy. 

Also, the only litmus gauge we have for this is GW 1.  It took the US 1 week to establish air superiority and 1 month of sustained bombardment before they launched their ground campaign.  They also lost 75 aircraft in that time.


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I think you are confusing terms.  They have air superiority, what they don't have is air supremacy.
> 
> Also, the only litmus gauge we have for this is GW 1.  It took the US 1 week to establish air superiority and 1 month of sustained bombardment before they launched their ground campaign.  They also lost 75 aircraft in that time.


One would argue the best they have is Air Parity.


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> One would argue the best they have is Air Parity.


Without knowing Ukrainian losses it's hard to tell but each AA system Ukraine captures and converts to their side, the harder it gets for Russia


----------



## Altair

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I think you are confusing terms.  They have air superiority, what they don't have is air supremacy.
> 
> Also, the only litmus gauge we have for this is GW 1.  It took the US 1 week to establish air superiority and 1 month of sustained bombardment before they launched their ground campaign.  They also lost 75 aircraft in that time.


There have been plenty of times in history where Russia has attacked a seemingly inferior opponent and gotten its 6 handed to them on a silver platter. 

This may simply be the most recent example of it. 

Russia dumped hundreds of billions into modernizing their military, but it seems to have been a potemkin village.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500544776004947973
Looks like the counter battery radars are paying off


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> Without knowing Ukrainian losses it's hard to tell but each AA system Ukraine captures and converts to their side, the harder it gets for Russia


----------



## Eaglelord17

suffolkowner said:


> Curious if we exagerate the requirements to be effective contributor in the war effort?  Did this postman have previous training or experience or did the just hand him a Stinger or Igla and tell him to point and shoot?


We exaggerate the requirements to do anything in our society. I remember hearing about the icestorm in 99 and how they brought a bunch of chainsaws for the troops to help. But because they didn’t have the CAF chainsaw qual they couldn’t use them, despite most them owning and using chainsaws regularly at home. 

This also applys to schooling for jobs (many basic starter jobs that used to require high school now require degrees/masters now), schooling to start apprenticeships (what a concept showing up pre-trained for what is supposed to be a training program), and ultimately comes down to a very risk adverse/job protectionist society.


----------



## Remius

Eaglelord17 said:


> We exaggerate the requirements to do anything in our society. I remember hearing about the icestorm in 99 and how they brought a bunch of chainsaws for the troops to help. But because they didn’t have the CAF chainsaw qual they couldn’t use them, despite most them owning and using chainsaws regularly at home.
> 
> This also applys to schooling for jobs (many basic starter jobs that used to require high school now require degrees/masters now), schooling to start apprenticeships (what a concept showing up pre-trained for what is supposed to be a training program), and ultimately comes down to a very risk adverse/job protectionist society.



I remember we just used the chainsaws regardless lol.  We even had a guy use a backhoe without a CF qual on it. 

But I totally get your point.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Now that "Nazi" and "genocide" are getting stale, another buzz word enters the RUS info-machine narrative via RUS state media ...


> Radicals in Ukraine are conducting ethnic cleansings, disseminate information about the establishment of camps for dissentients and foreigners, the humanitarian response coordinating headquarters under Russia’s National Defense Management Center said on Sunday.  "With an aim of demoralizing civilians and foreigners, Ukrainian mass media spread publications that Kiev is establishing camps for people who do nor support the current regime and for those who are not Ukrainian citizens. Radicals are conducting ethnic cleansings. They break into people’s apartments and houses, check documents in the streets. Those who doesn’t have Ukrainian passports are taken in an unknown direction," it said ...


----------



## Czech_pivo

Question - Has anyone any reliable info on what the outcome of the Israeli PM talks with Putin was? Any direct thoughts on what may be achieved by this?


----------



## Furniture

Eaglelord17 said:


> We exaggerate the requirements to do anything in our society. I remember hearing about the icestorm in 99 and how they brought a bunch of chainsaws for the troops to help. But because they didn’t have the CAF chainsaw qual they couldn’t use them, despite most them owning and using chainsaws regularly at home.
> 
> This also applys to schooling for jobs (many basic starter jobs that used to require high school now require degrees/masters now), schooling to start apprenticeships (what a concept showing up pre-trained for what is supposed to be a training program), and ultimately comes down to a very risk adverse/job protectionist society.


I completely disagree, and believe that the Starlink systems sent to Ukraine will be the real key to Ukraine's ultimate victory. 

Imagine how much DLN training the Ukrainians can get done now. They'll be unstoppable, even more so if they can get the PPT presentations to load properly. 🇺🇦


----------



## suffolkowner

Latvia and Estonia in particular have significant Russian populations

The results of WW1 and WW2 resulted in the spread and consolidation of the ethnic nation state across Europe. It was not accomplished even in the end without massive movement of people especially Germans and Poles and national boundaries too

From wikipedia re GW1

"Iraqi anti-aircraft defenses, including man-portable air-defense systems, were surprisingly ineffective against enemy aircraft, and the coalition suffered only 75 aircraft losses in over 100,000 sorties, 44 due to Iraqi action. Two of these losses are the result of aircraft colliding with the ground while evading Iraqi ground-fired weapons.[129][130] One of these losses is a confirmed air-air victory.[131]"

right now the Russian numbers look closer to the Iraqi's than the coalitions


----------



## suffolkowner

Altair said:


> Or we can chalk it all up to madmen being madmen.


In the past that was the way of it not necessarily madman but the way of empire and emperors. Even today we tend to still admire such accomplishments eventhough Caesar and Alexander all the rest through history would be madmen as well


Altair said:


> There have been plenty of times in history where Russia has attacked a seemingly inferior opponent and gotten its 6 handed to them on a silver platter.
> 
> This may simply be the most recent example of it.
> 
> Russia dumped hundreds of billions into modernizing their military, but it seems to have been a potemkin village.


they dumped billions in but how much got siphoned off


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> My argument originally was we (the West) could have solved it years ago by dropping a NATO DIV in UKR, we didn’t.
> 
> It isn’t just the Ukrainian people that are being used, and IMHO the currently policy of Arm and Watch has no less danger to it than direct NATO intervention.
> 
> Why? Because at the rate Russia is going it won’t matter if NATO troops are in direct conflict or not, the cupboard of Vlad is starting to get thinner and a few more weeks at the current pace will have him running on empty, leaving him his Nuclear option or running back to Russia.
> 
> If we had stop at the start and said, F you, Ukraine will be defended, it never would have gotten to the part it is.
> 
> While I don’t view the Western Leaders as culpable as #FuckPutin, we have to acknowledge that our countries politicians knew what was going to happen and allowed it to happen, in doing so pushed the world closer to the giant reset button.
> 
> I for one, believe that we have a moral imperative to act in the Ukraine beyond our current COA, but I also understand that to do so, will result in a large risk, that needs to be clearly and carefully explained to Russia that while we are going to go into the Ukraine we will honor Russia 1991 borders and no NATO troops (or Ukrainian forces) will cross the border - unless it’s at the behest of the Russian government for humanitarian reasons, and even with Russian concurrences those troops will do it with UN oversight and not be a permanent force inside the Russian borders.


Right on the fucking money. I was so disappointed when I heard we were pulling out our advisers last month, basically telegraphing ''Come on in, invade at will!'' to Russia.

We should've had boots on the ground years ago. But we let it fester instead. 

And now somehow ''we're the aggressors'' if we intervene.


Furniture said:


> I'm pretty sure a dude from Germany used a similar argument to justify annexing parts of a country once too... That ended well for everyone.


Yeah, disturbing talk. 

Should France come and invade Quebec? Or should the US take Ontario, just because they speak the same language?

That's kooky at best.

The Kenyan Rep to the UN made a great speech to the UNSC when the war started, regarding ethnic groups split by borders. I'd encourage everyone to go back and give it a listen.


----------



## kev994

Furniture said:


> I completely disagree, and believe that the Starlink systems sent to Ukraine will be the real key to Ukraine's ultimate victory.
> 
> Imagine how much DLN training the Ukrainians can get done now. They'll be unstoppable, even more so if they can get the PPT presentations to load properly. 🇺🇦


But only if they ignore the warnings about internet explorer being an unsupported program that likely has security flaws.


----------



## suffolkowner

confirmed Ukrainian losses via Oryx so a bit behind

Tanks (45, of which destroyed: 13, abandoned: 10, captured: 21)








 43 T-64BV: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, destroyed) (5, destroyed) (6, destroyed) (7 and 8, destroyed) (9, destroyed) (10, destroyed) (11, destroyed) (12, destroyed) (13, destroyed) (14, destroyed) (15, damaged and abandoned) (16, abandoned) (17 and 18, abandoned) (19 and 20, abandoned) (21, abandoned) (22, abandoned) (23, abandoned) (24, damaged and captured) (25, captured) (26, captured) (27, captured) (28, captured) (29, 30, 31, 32 and 33, captured) (34, captured) (35, 36, 37 and 38, captured) (39, captured) (40 and 41, captured) (42, captured) (43, captured)






 2 T-80BV: (1, abandoned) (2, damaged and captured)

Armoured Fighting Vehicles (35, of which destroyed: 8, abandoned: 11, captured: 14)​
Infantry Fighting Vehicles (33, of which destroyed 9, abandoned: 8, captured: 16)​ 
Armoured Personnel Carriers (17, of which destroyed: 3, abandoned: 2, captured: 11))​ 
Infantry Mobility Vehicles (14, of which destroyed: 2, abandoned: 1, captured: 11)​
Engineering Vehicles (1, of which captured: 1)​ 
Anti-tank Guided Missiles (32, of which captured: 32)​
Man-Portable Air Defence Systems (14, of which captured: 14)​
Self-Propelled Artillery (7, of which destroyed: 3, abandoned: 1, captured: 3)​ 
Multiple Rocket Launchers (2, of which captured: 2)​ 
Anti-Aircraft Guns (1, of which captured: 1)​ 
Surface-To-Air Missile Systems (8, of which destroyed: 8)​
Radars (5, of which destroyed: 3, damaged: 2)​
Aircraft (8, of which destroyed: 8)​






 3 Su-27 fighter aircraft: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed)






 1 MiG-29 fighter aircraft: (1, destroyed)






 2 Su-25 attack aircraft: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed)






 1 An-26 transport aircraft: (1, destroyed)






 1 An-225: (1, destroyed)
 
Naval Ships (1, of which destroyed: 1)​






 1 Krivak III class frigate 'Hetman Sahaydachniy': (1, scuttled to prevent capture by Russia)
 
Trucks, Vehicles and Jeeps (64, of which destroyed: 30, damaged: 2, abandoned: 6, captured: 26​









						Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine
					






					www.oryxspioenkop.com


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> confirmed Ukrainian losses via Oryx so a bit behind
> 
> Tanks (45, of which destroyed: 13, abandoned: 10, captured: 21)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 43 T-64BV: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, destroyed) (5, destroyed) (6, destroyed) (7 and 8, destroyed) (9, destroyed) (10, destroyed) (11, destroyed) (12, destroyed) (13, destroyed) (14, destroyed) (15, damaged and abandoned) (16, abandoned) (17 and 18, abandoned) (19 and 20, abandoned) (21, abandoned) (22, abandoned) (23, abandoned) (24, damaged and captured) (25, captured) (26, captured) (27, captured) (28, captured) (29, 30, 31, 32 and 33, captured) (34, captured) (35, 36, 37 and 38, captured) (39, captured) (40 and 41, captured) (42, captured) (43, captured)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 2 T-80BV: (1, abandoned) (2, damaged and captured)
> 
> Armoured Fighting Vehicles (35, of which destroyed: 8, abandoned: 11, captured: 14)​
> Infantry Fighting Vehicles (33, of which destroyed 9, abandoned: 8, captured: 16)​
> Armoured Personnel Carriers (17, of which destroyed: 3, abandoned: 2, captured: 11))​
> Infantry Mobility Vehicles (14, of which destroyed: 2, abandoned: 1, captured: 11)​
> Engineering Vehicles (1, of which captured: 1)​
> Anti-tank Guided Missiles (32, of which captured: 32)​
> Man-Portable Air Defence Systems (14, of which captured: 14)​
> Self-Propelled Artillery (7, of which destroyed: 3, abandoned: 1, captured: 3)​
> Multiple Rocket Launchers (2, of which captured: 2)​
> Anti-Aircraft Guns (1, of which captured: 1)​
> Surface-To-Air Missile Systems (8, of which destroyed: 8)​
> Radars (5, of which destroyed: 3, damaged: 2)​
> Aircraft (8, of which destroyed: 8)​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 3 Su-27 fighter aircraft: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 1 MiG-29 fighter aircraft: (1, destroyed)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 2 Su-25 attack aircraft: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 1 An-26 transport aircraft: (1, destroyed)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 1 An-225: (1, destroyed)
> 
> Naval Ships (1, of which destroyed: 1)​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 1 Krivak III class frigate 'Hetman Sahaydachniy': (1, scuttled to prevent capture by Russia)
> 
> Trucks, Vehicles and Jeeps (64, of which destroyed: 30, damaged: 2, abandoned: 6, captured: 26​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.oryxspioenkop.com


Still a fraction of confirmed Russian losses, though it's a lot of captured kit


----------



## Altair

TacticalTea said:


> Right on the fucking money. I was so disappointed when I heard we were pulling out our advisers last month, basically telegraphing ''Come on in, invade at will!'' to Russia.
> 
> We should've had boots on the ground years ago. But we let it fester instead.
> 
> And now somehow ''we're the aggressors'' if we intervene.
> 
> Yeah, disturbing talk.
> 
> Should France come and invade Quebec? Or should the US take Ontario, just because they speak the same language?
> 
> That's kooky at best.
> 
> The Kenyan Rep to the UN made a great speech to the UNSC when the war started, regarding ethnic groups split by borders. I'd encourage everyone to go back and give it a listen.


Its a interesting paradox. 

The west are cowards with competent militaries. 

Russia is assertive with an incompetent military.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Altair said:


> The west are cowards with competent militaries.


How do you figure?


----------



## Altair

Jarnhamar said:


> How do you figure?


We in the west could have prevented this by simply placing troops in the way. Putin kills western troops, article 5 is triggered, Russia is having a bad day. USA have troops in Japan, troops in South Korea, both non nato nations, so it can be done. 

But instead we bail as fast as possible freeing the way for Russia to attack without fear of triggering article 5 of NATO. 

And then, from the safety of NATO borders cheerlead the Ukrainians, the same ones we left to the mercy of the Russians. 

Cowards all.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

HiTechComms said:


> Oh nice what about ism? I don't care what Russia would do I care about what Canada does.
> I am not a citizen of Russia.
> 
> We are suppose to be better then Russia or China or what ever authoritarian regime does.
> 
> _Indiscriminate killing of civilians is an abhorrent action when any one does it. Y_ep that's it for me, we are not at war with Russia. Again my stance of post 911 bigotry stands and that is a hill I am willing to stand and fight on. We treat people equally under the law or we don't because otherwise its a slippery slope.  I am done.



Reading stories of Russians killing civilians trying to flee combat areas.  

How’s that for treating people equally now?


----------



## suffolkowner

I think democracies are inherently slower to react in these situations but once moved to action are also inherently stronger


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500559980549787654
Not sure if true, but I must say, it rings true.


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500551253226573826
British military’s top officer rings even more true. 

I don't know if Ukraines 10k russian troops dead numbers are accurate or not, but Russia lost 15k soldiers over 10 years in Afghanistan.


----------



## MilEME09

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500551253226573826
> British military’s top officer rings even more true.
> 
> I don't know if Ukraines 10k russian troops dead numbers are accurate or not, but Russia lost 15k soldiers over 10 years in Afghanistan.


If the numbers are even remotely accurate, the military may turn on Putin.


----------



## suffolkowner

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500559980549787654
> Not sure if true, but I must say, it rings true.


a good sign and a bad sign all in one. For Tsar Vlad the Impaler Poutine the clock is ticking. Sad but if the cost to get rid of him is a few thousand Ukrainians I'm sure the Americans, NATO and even the Russians would agree


----------



## Remius

MilEME09 said:


> If the numbers are even remotely accurate, the military may turn on Putin.


This.  And when pay stops I’m sure that will make things worse.


----------



## Zipperhead99

NATO fighters about to be transferred to Ukraine?









						US approves NATO sending fighter jets to Ukraine
					

On Sunday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said NATO members have the “green-light” to provide Ukraine with fighter jets as the Russian invasion enters




					americanmilitarynews.com


----------



## Altair

Zipperhead99 said:


> NATO fighters about to be transferred to Ukraine?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> US approves NATO sending fighter jets to Ukraine
> 
> 
> On Sunday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said NATO members have the “green-light” to provide Ukraine with fighter jets as the Russian invasion enters
> 
> 
> 
> 
> americanmilitarynews.com


NATO fighters of Russian origin I'm sure. 

As others have said, it would take months to get Ukrainian pilots up to speed on western fighters.


----------



## tomydoom

suffolkowner said:


> I think democracies are inherently slower to react in these situations but once moved to action are also inherently stronger


A friend and I were saying exactly that, the other day. World War 2 being the classic example. It is easier for a popularly elected government to fully engage the economy in the effort, as less effort needs to put into suppressing your own population.


----------



## TacticalTea

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500559980549787654
> Not sure if true, but I must say, it rings true.


Vlad: ''If Steiner Sukhovetsky attacks, all will be right''
General 1: ''Mein My President, Sukhovetsky...
General 2:''Sukhovetsky was shot by a sniper while trying to unfuck the convoy.''


On a separate - but also comedic - note:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500573417636089861
Huh... yeah... totally doesn't look exactly like the work laptop sitting on my desk right now...


----------



## dapaterson

Don't worry, RUS is reinforcing their Log vehicle fleet.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500447347456626688


----------



## Altair

TacticalTea said:


> Vlad: ''If Steiner Sukhovetsky attacks, all will be right''
> General 1: ''Mein My President, Sukhovetsky...
> General 2:''Sukhovetsky was shot by a sniper while trying to unfuck the convoy.''
> 
> 
> On a separate - but also comedic - note:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500573417636089861
> Huh... yeah... totally doesn't look exactly like the work laptop sitting on my desk right now...


----------



## NavyShooter

dapaterson said:


> Don't worry, RUS is reinforcing their Log vehicle fleet.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500447347456626688



That last one's an EM-50.


----------



## Prairie canuck

Could there be an insurgency brewing in Belarus that just needs an infusion of cash and some C-4?


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500582965797134339


----------



## Remius

dapaterson said:


> Don't worry, RUS is reinforcing their Log vehicle fleet.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500447347456626688


I wonder if that’s the civy company they contracted?


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500611483759255555

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500613277302280193


----------



## Altair

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I think you are confusing terms.  They have air superiority, what they don't have is air supremacy.
> 
> Also, the only litmus gauge we have for this is GW 1.  It took the US 1 week to establish air superiority and 1 month of sustained bombardment before they launched their ground campaign.  They also lost 75 aircraft in that time.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500608210176200709
 I know what I said.


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500582965797134339


as bad as Russia has been performing there's still a lot of red on that map


----------



## Altair

suffolkowner said:


> as bad as Russia has been performing there's still a lot of red on that map


take out Crimea and Donbass and its not as much.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Altair said:


> We in the west could have prevented this by simply placing troops in the way. Putin kills western troops, article 5 is triggered, Russia is having a bad day. USA have troops in Japan, troops in South Korea, both non nato nations, so it can be done.
> 
> But instead we bail as fast as possible freeing the way for Russia to attack without fear of triggering article 5 of NATO.
> 
> And then, from the safety of NATO borders cheerlead the Ukrainians, the same ones we left to the mercy of the Russians.
> 
> Cowards all.



Good points, especially avout being in other non-nato countries. 
I wonder if the US would stay in Taiwan if it looks like China was about to invade. 



suffolkowner said:


> Sad but if the cost to get rid of him is a few thousand Ukrainians I'm sure the Americans, NATO and even the Russians would agree



And hope the replacement isn't worse.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> take out Crimea and Donbass and its not as much.


Also a lot of the red isn’t an accurate picture of what the Russian actually have.  Most is a valid limit of exploitation, but may not still occupy, or may have collapsed behind in areas.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500608210176200709
> I know what I said.


You clearly don't understand what Air Superiority actually means or what the definition is.  Just because Ukraine continues to be able to employ AD or Air Units doesn't mean that Russia doesn't have Air Superiority.

Air Superiority:


> That degree of dominance in the air battle of one force over another which permits the conduct of operations by  the former and its related land, sea and air forces at a given time and place without prohibitive interference by  the opposing force.


http://nsa.nato.int/nsa/zPublic/ap/aap6/AAP-6.pdf

The Ukrainian Air Force is conducting Air Denial Operations and they don't have parity with the Russian Air Force.  The Russians clearly have Air Superiority, what they don't have is Air Supremacy, which is what is really being inferred when the media says "Air Superiority".

Definitions and terms are important and we as Military Professionals should be more educated on these things than the mainstream media or joe public.


----------



## Altair

Humphrey Bogart said:


> You clearly don't understand what Air Superiority actually means or what the definition is.  Just because Ukraine continues to be able to employ AD or Air Units doesn't mean that Russia doesn't have Air Superiority.
> 
> Air Superiority:
> 
> http://nsa.nato.int/nsa/zPublic/ap/aap6/AAP-6.pdf
> 
> The Ukrainian Air Force is conducting Air Denial Operations and they don't have parity with the Russian Air Force.  The Russians clearly have Air Superiority, what they don't have is Air Supremacy, which is what is really being inferred when the media says "Air Superiority".
> 
> Definitions and terms are important and we as Military Professionals should be more educated on these things than the mainstream media or joe public.


Me and the senior US defense official will continue to not understand together then.


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> You clearly don't understand what Air Superiority actually means or what the definition is.  Just because Ukraine continues to be able to employ AD or Air Units doesn't mean that Russia doesn't have Air Superiority.
> 
> Air Superiority:
> 
> http://nsa.nato.int/nsa/zPublic/ap/aap6/AAP-6.pdf
> 
> The Ukrainian Air Force is conducting Air Denial Operations and they don't have parity with the Russian Air Force.  The Russians clearly have Air Superiority, what they don't have is Air Supremacy, which is what is really being inferred when the media says "Air Superiority".


I think Air Parity is a better word.  As Russia also needs to conduct Air Denial due to Ukrainian aircraft conducting ground attack missions.


Humphrey Bogart said:


> Definitions and terms are important and we as Military Professionals should be more educated on these things than the mainstream media or joe public.


Both sides have control of regional portions of the Airspace.  Areas to the West of Kyiv are total no go zones for Russian air, and similarly the UKR air cannot approach the Russian border.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> I think Air Parity is a better word.  As Russia also needs to conduct Air Denial due to Ukrainian aircraft conducting ground attack missions.


This is what I would say as well, because the Ukrainian air force continues to strike at Russian forces, especially in the east. 

But you, I, and senior US defense official will all continue to not understand together. We should all go for drinks.


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500620031939342336
I don't envy the Russian forces who try to take Odessa. 

That city is probably the second most fortified in all of Ukraine, after Kiev.


----------



## TacticalTea

Altair said:


> This is what I would say as well, because the Ukrainian air force continues to strike at Russian forces, especially in the east.
> 
> But you, I, and senior US defense official will all continue to not understand together. We should all go for drinks.


10 airframes downed in a single day kinda meets the definition of prohibitive interference in my mind, but what do I know. Maybe I don't understand either. I recommend a pitcher of Sangria.


----------



## KevinB

I suspect Russia is concerned as to exactly what AD systems have been moved into the UKR theatre. 
    The Russians probably followed the massive Airlift we did into the UKR prior to kick off time, and noted the departure location of a lot of those C-17’s. 
  THAAD has a 250+km range and MEADS a 70+ range band.

As well when one looks at the historical usage of Russian Air they haven’t done things NATO nations take for granted their Air Force will do.   So while Russia could theoretically generate air power to create air superiority and air supremacy by sheer numbers they lack the experience and training to do it.   Plus the further West they operate - they do at great peril.


----------



## OceanBonfire

MilEME09 said:


> Edit:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500469003780771846
> More war crimes potentially



I saw the video of the mortar that fell close to them. This broke me.


----------



## The Bread Guy

suffolkowner said:


> ... other ethnicities such as *Hungarians* and Romanians are really too small to matter


... unless one of them has someone who can help keep UKR outta NATO behind them.


----------



## suffolkowner

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500568761845358602
back and forth back and forth. Poland angling for a better deal? You would think they would be doing everything they could to normalize the situation and get the refugees back to Ukraine


----------



## Altair

suffolkowner said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500568761845358602
> back and forth back and forth. Poland angling for a better deal? You would think they would be dpoing everything they could to normalize the situation and get the refugees back to Ukraine


Cowards all.


----------



## Weinie

rmc_wannabe said:


> I think the Russians are crying wolf now. If this is the state of their invading forces, Ibwouldnt be surprised* if there were  a few moths in their missile silos* more than anything else..


Better hope that there are more than a *few* moths. They have about 6000 nukes. Even if 25% successfully launch, my kids are going to have a very shitty and/or short life.


----------



## suffolkowner

Weinie said:


> Better hope that there are more than a *few* moths. They have about 6000 nukes. Even if 25% successfully launch, my kids are going to have a very shitty and/or short life.


I think theyll have more detonation failures than launch failures but I'm not willing to bet my families life on it


----------



## SupersonicMax

KevinB said:


> I think Air Parity is a better word.  As Russia also needs to conduct Air Denial due to Ukrainian aircraft conducting ground attack missions.
> 
> Both sides have control of regional portions of the Airspace.  Areas to the West of Kyiv are total no go zones for Russian air, and similarly the UKR air cannot approach the Russian border.


Air Supremacy/Superiority/Parity is also not absolute. It can be time and space bound. There are times when Russia may have Air Supremacy over certain areas of Ukraine with the objective of denying Air Support to Ukrainian Armed Forces and the bring the aircraft/Tactical AD back, after they operations/maneuvers are complete, to preserve the effort.


----------



## Czech_pivo

suffolkowner said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500568761845358602
> back and forth back and forth. Poland angling for a better deal? You would think they would be doing everything they could to normalize the situation and get the refugees back to Ukraine


I think the Poles are worried about a short range tactical nuke being launched their way by the Russians if they pass long their Migs.

Why this whole thing is not being done in a vacuum of silence I’ll never know. Send along the Migs, under total silence and only after this is done come out with the story. It’s asinine that it’s being talked about publicly.

Also, let’s be honest here, is roughly 40 Migs going to tip the scales in Ukraine’s favour and be the deciding factor?  I want the Russian on the ropes and Ukraine somehow coming out of this intact and on top but to say that 40 planes will be the deciding factor is crazy.


----------



## suffolkowner

Czech_pivo said:


> I think the Poles are worried about a short range tactical nuke being launched their way by the Russians if they pass long their Migs.
> 
> Why this whole thing is not being done in a vacuum of silence I’ll never know. Send along the Migs, under total silence and only after this is done come out with the story. It’s asinine that it’s being talked about publicly.
> 
> Also, let’s be honest here, is roughly 40 Migs going to tip the scales in Ukraine’s favour and be the deciding factor?  I want the Russian on the ropes and Ukraine somehow coming out of this intact and on top but to say that 40 planes will be the deciding factor is crazy.


I dont know why anyone would worry about nukes, whats done is done once done. A few Migs are no threat to Russia but they can definately help as Ukraine has managed to more than hold their own with the limited air force they have


----------



## Remius

Czech_pivo said:


> I think the Poles are worried about a short range tactical nuke being launched their way by the Russians if they pass long their Migs.
> 
> Why this whole thing is not being done in a vacuum of silence I’ll never know. Send along the Migs, under total silence and only after this is done come out with the story. It’s asinine that it’s being talked about publicly.
> 
> Also, let’s be honest here, is roughly 40 Migs going to tip the scales in Ukraine’s favour and be the deciding factor?  I want the Russian on the ropes and Ukraine somehow coming out of this intact and on top but to say that 40 planes will be the deciding factor is crazy.


It’s because we spent the last few decades using strategic declarations.  It’s like making warnings without warnings.  We’ve used it so much that the west defaults to it I think.  And makes everyone think more is being done.  

The US looks good while saying they will help Poland offset by providing F16s,  keeps them from explaining why they are still importing Russian oil.


----------



## Remius

suffolkowner said:


> I dont know why anyone would worry about nukes, whats done is done once done. A few Migs are no threat to Russia but they can definately help as Ukraine has managed to more than hold their own with the limited air force they have


And it’s a time game.  40 migs could keep adding to the clock.


----------



## kev994

suffolkowner said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500568761845358602
> back and forth back and forth. Poland angling for a better deal? You would think they would be doing everything they could to normalize the situation and get the refugees back to Ukraine


It appears to be carefully worded. If they gift them (and paint them) first they’re not “sending Polish planes”, they’re just allowing UKR to fly off with its own planes… the pointing out of the checkerboard paint scheme makes me more suspicious of this.


----------



## KevinB

Weinie said:


> Better hope that there are more than a *few* moths. They have about 6000 nukes. Even if 25% successfully launch, my kids are going to have a very shitty and/or short life.


Keep in mind - regional "tactical" nuclear usage is part of Russian doctrine.   Strategic Nuclear is resorted to MAD.
   I don't think anyone should be surprised if Russia does employ a low yield tac nuke to change the bargaining table, if they think it will result in something that benefits Russia (PUTIN).









						Putin threats: How many nuclear weapons does Russia have?
					

A look at Russia's nuclear arsenal and basic guide to nuclear weapons and their destructive power.



					www.bbc.com
				



  Keep in mind that the SSBN and ICBM use Multiple Independent Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRV) - thus have each missile has multiple warheads.








						Fact Sheet: Multiple Independently-targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) - Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation
					

Updated March 2021 Multiple Independently-targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs) were originally developed in the early 1960s to permit a missile to deliver multiple nuclear warheads to different targets. In contrast to a traditional missile, which carries one warhead, MIRVs can carry multiple...




					armscontrolcenter.org
				




So in all practicality you are talking about probably 300 plus actual missiles - each with up to 16 MIRV each.


----------



## KevinB

Here are the latest developments in Ukraine.
					






					www.nytimes.com


----------



## KevinB

Moldovans fear a region run by Russia-backed separatists might be next.
					






					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Kilted

I'm starting to realize that Putin isn't exactly like Hitler.  Hitler actually won a few battles.


----------



## suffolkowner

KevinB said:


> Moldovans fear a region run by Russia-backed separatists might be next.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com


seems like an area that might need to be de nazified


----------



## KevinB

Maps: Tracking the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
					

Ukraine captured more territory in the last week than Russia did in the last five months.



					www.nytimes.com
				




Pretty decent maps of the conflict and appear to be fairly current.


----------



## KevinB

suffolkowner said:


> seems like an area that might need to be de nazified


Yeah 'fool' me once...
   Maybe the IDF should put some forces in just to show Putin that he's not needed...


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

SupersonicMax said:


> Air Supremacy/Superiority/Parity is also not absolute. It can be time and space bound. There are times when Russia may have Air Supremacy over certain areas of Ukraine with the objective of denying Air Support to Ukrainian Armed Forces and the bring the aircraft/Tactical AD back, after they operations/maneuvers are complete, to preserve the effort.


Thank you for saying this, it's clear some don't understand.


----------



## Zipperhead99

suffolkowner said:


> seems like an area that might need to be de nazified


I know that Moldova is supposed to be neutral, but perhaps they are interested in some Javelins, NLAWs and Stingers? You know, just  in case?


----------



## Zipperhead99

Kilted said:


> I'm starting to realize that Putin isn't exactly like Hitler.  Hitler actually won a few battles.


Yeah, this is probably what the Russian army is thinking at the moment.


----------



## Prairie canuck

Zipperhead99 said:


> I know that Moldova is supposed to be neutral, but perhaps they are interested in some Javelins, NLAWs and Stingers? You know, just  in case?


Moldova's history is comparable to a kid at the ice cream store. Lots of indecision. They are currently part of the EU but that's a fairly recent direction is it not?... Not sure you want to transfer that technology over to them as corruption still seems to be culturally imbedded.


----------



## suffolkowner

Prairie canuck said:


> Moldova's history is comparable to a kid at the ice cream store. Lots of indecision. They are currently part of the EU but that's a fairly recent direction is it not?... Not sure you want to transfer that technology over to them as corruption still seems to be culturally imbedded.


Yeah but we should help them with their Russian problem its what friends do


----------



## TacticalTea

Bob Rae, Canadian Ambassador to the UN, supports idea of No-Fly Zone

_Ran through Google translate:_
*Azeb Wolde-Giorghis:* The Ukrainians are calling for the closure of airspace to prevent Russian bombardments. President Zelensky has even addressed the US Senate to demand the establishment of a no-fly zone.

*Bob Rae:* It would be a good idea, yes, it would be a very strong objective, because it would put an end to the air attacks. The problem we have is that, frankly, it requires a decision by NATO as a whole. This decision would have repercussions on relations between Russia and NATO. I'm not saying it should never happen: it's a decision not only of Canada and the United States but of all of NATO. This would have certain consequences and we must be aware of that.


----------



## GK .Dundas

TacticalTea said:


> Bob Rae, Canadian Ambassador to the UN, supports idea of No-Fly Zone
> 
> _Ran through Google translate:_
> *Azeb Wolde-Giorghis:* The Ukrainians are calling for the closure of airspace to prevent Russian bombardments. President Zelensky has even addressed the US Senate to demand the establishment of a no-fly zone.
> 
> *Bob Rae:* It would be a good idea, yes, it would be a very strong objective, because it would put an end to the air attacks. The problem we have is that, frankly, it requires a decision by NATO as a whole. This decision would have repercussions on relations between Russia and NATO. I'm not saying it should never happen: it's a decision not only of Canada and the United States but of all of NATO. This would have certain consequences and we must be aware of that.


Well he does and doesn't...... Welcome to diplomacy.


----------



## MilEME09

TacticalTea said:


> Bob Rae, Canadian Ambassador to the UN, supports idea of No-Fly Zone
> 
> _Ran through Google translate:_
> *Azeb Wolde-Giorghis:* The Ukrainians are calling for the closure of airspace to prevent Russian bombardments. President Zelensky has even addressed the US Senate to demand the establishment of a no-fly zone.
> 
> *Bob Rae:* It would be a good idea, yes, it would be a very strong objective, because it would put an end to the air attacks. The problem we have is that, frankly, it requires a decision by NATO as a whole. This decision would have repercussions on relations between Russia and NATO. I'm not saying it should never happen: it's a decision not only of Canada and the United States but of all of NATO. This would have certain consequences and we must be aware of that.


i think part of it is the optics, we strike first and we are the western aggressor's in the eyes of russia and China, but if we bait russia into shooting first then article 5 works.


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Thank you for saying this, it's clear some don't understand.


Russia hasn’t operated more than 4 aircraft together since Day 1, and never more than 2 different types of aircraft.  

You couldn’t get a JTAC out of bed for that…


@SupersonicMax does that sound like a force that can maintain air superiority let alone supremacy?  

And lost 9 AC today (and a UAV). 

Air Supremacy over the Russian border maybe…


The Air Assault base getting built NE of Kyiv is a little worrisome. That would make less of a window for UAF to react even in real time.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Meanwhile back at the logistic train


----------



## Altair

Colin Parkinson said:


> Meanwhile back at the logistic train


Tire guy knew what he was talking about.


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR mil int's latest ...

... and UK MoD's


----------



## The Bread Guy

Info-fight snippet:  *"Kiev refuses granting access to Russia-proposed humanitarian corridors"* (RUS state media)
... versus ...








						Ukraine Reports Tentative Progress At Talks; Russia Says Its Expectations Were Not Met
					

A third round of talks between Moscow and Kyiv has ended with Ukrainian negotiators noting small positive developments in the area of humanitarian corridors to allow civilians to flee Russia's unprovoked invasion of its neighbor.




					www.rferl.org
				




A headline summing up a good bit of the info-fight ...








						Ukraine war: 'My city's being shelled, but mum won’t believe me'
					

These Ukrainians say their Russian relatives only trust the narratives they see on TV at home.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## Weinie

KevinB said:


> Keep in mind - regional "tactical" nuclear usage is part of Russian doctrine.   Strategic Nuclear is resorted to MAD.
> I don't think anyone should be surprised if Russia does employ a low yield tac nuke to change the bargaining table, if they think it will result in something that benefits Russia (PUTIN).
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Putin threats: How many nuclear weapons does Russia have?
> 
> 
> A look at Russia's nuclear arsenal and basic guide to nuclear weapons and their destructive power.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Keep in mind that the SSBN and ICBM use Multiple Independent Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRV) - thus have each missile has multiple warheads.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Fact Sheet: Multiple Independently-targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) - Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation
> 
> 
> Updated March 2021 Multiple Independently-targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs) were originally developed in the early 1960s to permit a missile to deliver multiple nuclear warheads to different targets. In contrast to a traditional missile, which carries one warhead, MIRVs can carry multiple...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> armscontrolcenter.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So in all practicality you are talking about probably 300 plus actual missiles - each with up to 16 MIRV each.


The articles below cite different numbers:

How many nuclear weapons does Russia have? The answer is utterly terrifying

How many nuclear weapons does Russia have?

I am well aware of Russian doctrine allowing for first use of tactical nukes. That concerns me, but not as much as the use of the big boys. Even five MIRV's per warhead equates to 1500 nukes.


----------



## KevinB

Weinie said:


> The articles below cite different numbers:
> 
> How many nuclear weapons does Russia have? The answer is utterly terrifying
> 
> How many nuclear weapons does Russia have?
> 
> I am well aware of Russian doctrine allowing for first use of tactical nukes. That concerns me, but not as much as the use of the big boys. Even five MIRV's per warhead equates to 1500 nukes.



I’m not discounting the Russian Nuclear forces, but I think we all know the ‘good’ numbers aren’t OS.  

1,600 of their 6k warheads where set to be demilled. The ~4,400 remaining have around 2k operational status. 

It is still enough to make for a really really bad day (or century +).   

I do not see a wholesale RU determination to say F it though.   The RU equivalent of NCA had checks and balances to it, just like Western Nations do.  Which is why I believe it it extremely important for the West to guarantee that ONLY Putin will face the hangman’s noose at the end of this.  The Russians are very aware of what happened to Germans at Nuremberg, and we need to encourage anyone in their launch approval authority that they have and out, and the West will ensure that they are NOT held responsible for what has occurred already.  

As well that the West won’t punish Russian further financially at the end of hostilities, and that we will ensure we will help them build back - Marshall 2.0 as it where.  As well as assisting them with democratic reform (which we need to understand the Oligarchs probably won’t appreciate that, which requires safeguards to them their assets won’t be seized so they can continue enjoying life, but not continuing business as usual).  

The other option is relying on precision strike and preemptive actions - which I don’t like due to the absolute implications of a failed neutralization at even 1 site.  The other aspect is, even if the West was to succeed in that, it would lead other countries to ensuring they where not vulnerable to a similar strike.


----------



## The Bread Guy

TacticalTea said:


> Bob Rae, Canadian Ambassador to the UN, supports idea of No-Fly Zone
> 
> _Ran through Google translate:_
> *Azeb Wolde-Giorghis:* The Ukrainians are calling for the closure of airspace to prevent Russian bombardments. President Zelensky has even addressed the US Senate to demand the establishment of a no-fly zone.
> 
> *Bob Rae:* It would be a good idea, yes, it would be a very strong objective, because it would put an end to the air attacks. The problem we have is that, frankly, it requires a decision by NATO as a whole. This decision would have repercussions on relations between Russia and NATO. I'm not saying it should never happen: it's a decision not only of Canada and the United States but of all of NATO. This would have certain consequences and we must be aware of that.


Better answer than the last one ....


> Canada's ambassador to the United Nations says a no-fly zone to protect Ukrainians from Russian aerial bombardment would need a buy-in from the Russians themselves to have any meaningful effect ...


Meanwhile, yet another possible reason for Russia's not-war (via RUS independent - for now, anyway - media)








						Russian Church Leader Appears to Blame Gay Pride Parades for Ukraine War - The Moscow Times
					

The head of Russia’s Orthodox Church appeared to blame liberal Western values — drawing particular attention to gay pride parades — for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in his Sunday sermon.




					www.themoscowtimes.com


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500797084726964231
Looks like a one off, but a Russian ship was hit it looks like.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500833437237850119


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500836650137665540


----------



## KevinB

Seriously don't they know a fleece isn't an outer garment 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500833757137354766
Somewhere an RSM is stroking out...


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500817238273708036


----------



## Good2Golf

The right thing to do.  The professional thing to do.


----------



## Mills Bomb

Ukrainian "separatist" cannon fodder enters the front lines. 

In Donbas and other "separatist" regions the Russians sent all the women and children to an uncertain future in Russia several weeks ago while the men were forced to stay behind. It's becoming more clear why the men were left behind. Watch this video:


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t4xnn9

These guys who surrendered were apparently all Ukrainian teachers from the separatist regions who were forced to fight with essentially no training, most of them are getting wiped out, this one section somehow managed to successfully surrender and is questioned.

Based on the evidence in these new videos it seems the Russians are killing two birds with one stone, the Ukrainian teachers and other intellectuals who may be opposed to Russian occupation and Putin will be killed by their own citizens and can then be replaced by pro-Putin teachers when the dust settles, and these poor guys are also contributing to the invasion of their own country.

More proof that when the Russia's come you either bend over and take it, and you'll probably be killed later anyway being used by Russia as they take more land, or you stand up and fight. Kadyrov and the Chechen forces still haven't realized they were used by Putin as well, despite Kadyrov's army and closest buddy being killed in Ukraine, now he's crying for Putin to "Finish the job in 2 days". Belarus' Chief of General Staff of Armed Force figured it out and has resigned, but I wouldn't be surprised if Putin still forces them into the meat grinder soon if this conflict doesn't end quickly.


----------



## The Bread Guy

For those looking for RUS's latest "stop making me punch you" demands (Reuters wire service - highlights mine) ....


> Russia has told Ukraine it is ready to halt military operations "in a moment" if Kyiv meets a list of conditions, the Kremlin spokesman said on Monday.  Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was demanding that *Ukraine cease military action, change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and recognise the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states ...*


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500834623349219328

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500841865725292545

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500845155737296897


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500845804252278794


----------



## tomydoom

The Bread Guy said:


> For those looking for RUS's latest "stop making me punch you" demands (Reuters wire service - highlights mine) ....


If that is indeed the current complete list, it looks like the  Russians have walked back some of their more fantastical demands.  The only one of those 3 that would be a complete non-starter is the neutrality part.  Crimea and the Donbas are ships that already sailed, and recognising them would just be recognising the reality on the ground.


----------



## daftandbarmy

tomydoom said:


> If that is indeed the current complete list, it looks like the  Russians have walked back some of their more fantastical demands.  The only one of those 3 that would be a complete non-starter is the neutrality part.  Crimea and the Donbas are ships that already sailed, and recognising them would just be recognising the reality on the ground.



Smart countries never officially recognize annexation of their territory... like Japan-Kuril Islands.


----------



## tomydoom

daftandbarmy said:


> Smart countries never officially recognize annexation of their territory... like Japan-Kuril Islands.


In an ideal world, I would agree with that.  However, if it is key to getting the Russians to go away and still allow Ukraine to join NATO (the non-negotiable for Ukraine, in my eyes. Not that they asked me), then it might be worth it.

What I find interesting though, is they seem to have dropped regime change  as one of the demands.


----------



## Czech_pivo

tomydoom said:


> If that is indeed the current complete list, it looks like the  Russians have walked back some of their more fantastical demands.  The only one of those 3 that would be a complete non-starter is the neutrality part.  Crimea and the Donbas are ships that already sailed, and recognising them would just be recognising the reality on the ground.


That 'neutrality' part could be achieved if it included something along the lines of: 

1) If Ukrainian neutrality is violated by Russia/Belarus, then NATO forces have the right to assist Ukraine if Ukraine asks for assistance. 
2) If NATO forces violate Ukrainian neutrality, then Russian/Belarus forces have the right to assist Ukraine if Ukraine asks for assistance.  
3) If Ukraine does not ask for assistance, in the case of outside invasion, internal instability, civil war or violations of its sovereign territory, then neither Russia/Belarus or NATO can enter the territory of Ukraine. 
4) Ukraine reserves the right to obtain military training from any third party country/countries within NATO or Russia/Belarus or any other sovereign nations 
5) Ukraine reserves the right to obtain military arms/equipment from any third party country or countries
6) Ukraine reserves the ability to join EU


----------



## tomydoom

Czech_pivo said:


> That 'neutrality' part could be achieved if it included something along the lines of:
> 
> 1) If Ukrainian neutrality is violated by Russia/Belarus, then NATO forces have the right to assist Ukraine if Ukraine asks for assistance.
> 2) If NATO forces violate Ukrainian neutrality, then Russian/Belarus forces have the right to assist Ukraine if Ukraine asks for assistance.
> 3) If Ukraine does not ask for assistance, in the case of outside invasion, internal instability, civil war or violations of its sovereign territory, then neither Russia/Belarus or NATO can enter the territory of Ukraine.
> 4) Ukraine reserves the right to obtain military training from any third party country/countries within NATO or Russia/Belarus or any other sovereign nations
> 5) Ukraine reserves the right to obtain military arms/equipment from any third party country or countries
> 6) Ukraine reserves the ability to join EU


I like it!  However, I suspect the Russians would see through that "neutrality" as "NATO by Proxy"  I also think the Ukrainians would be very keen to have a NATO garrison, like the Baltic states and Poland have.


----------



## Mills Bomb

I think I would be extremely cautious about Russia's terms.

They've demonstrated in these negotiations they don't uphold their end of the bargain. If they were serious about negotiating, they would have upheld their end of the cease-fire agreements and not shelled the civilians like the savages they are. Not to mention the fact this entire invasion was a massive deception plan.

Who's to say this isn't just to get Ukraine to stop firing while they continue the fight like we've seen in the last agreements?

As for the "separatist" regions wanting to be Russian, I guess that will be an easy argument when all the men who previously lived there are dead and the families gone.

I think things have escalated to the point we need to destroy Putin's war machine by ensuring they are killed off in Ukraine and cutting off the funding to rebuild their army with sanctions unless we see a Russian regime change we're going to see other countries fighting this same battle again later and it will be another conflict of massive war crimes and innocent life lost. Just my opinion of course and I hope I'm wrong and cooler heads prevail.


----------



## KevinB

UKR isn’t going to accept anything short of a rollback to 1991 border at this point and NATO membership, they have blood, sweat and tears for that.  

Everyone else just needs to get onboard.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500853580877680645
Looks like the Russians ate having to task a lot if troops to crowd control in the occupied areas, further eroding their combat power.


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> UKR isn’t going to accept anything short of a rollback to 1991 border at this point and NATO membership, they have blood, sweat and tears for that.
> 
> Everyone else just needs to get onboard.


One commentator I watch pointed out before 2014 large oil and gas reserves were found around Crimea. Part of russias grab there was economic, Ukraine can't sell gas to Europe if it doesn't have it. Thus keeping Europe dependent on Russian gas, keeping the Russian economy afloat.


----------



## Mills Bomb

Agreed. Russia made their choose, and it's time to accept this invasion was a very bad idea and face the consequences.

Their losses in Ukraine get more ridiculous every day. It seems to me like the longer they stay, the more hellish and expensive it becomes for their military. 

I can no longer realistically see a situation where Russian forces conquer Ukraine, it's pointless now, it looks like they've lost and unless we're missing major progress reports in the West it appears they're stalled just about everywhere and now they're dealing with effective counter attacks and ambushes everywhere. Do any security experts still think they can pull this off with measly invasion force of just 200,000? Is it really worth mobilizing all of Russia for and how would that go over at home?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

MilEME09 said:


> One commentator I watch pointed out before 2014 large oil and gas reserves were found around Crimea. Part of russias grab there was economic, Ukraine can't sell gas to Europe if it doesn't have it. Thus keeping Europe dependent on Russian gas, keeping the Russian economy afloat.


Won't mean shit if they are still being sanctioned and no one buys Russian oil and gas. 

Takes the wind out of the sails a bit.


----------



## Good2Golf

Mills Bomb said:


> Agreed. Russia made their choose, and it's time to accept this invasion was a very bad idea and face the consequences.
> 
> Their losses in Ukraine get more ridiculous every day. It seems to me like the longer they stay, the more hellish and expensive it becomes for their military.
> 
> I can no longer realistically see a situation where Russian forces conquer Ukraine, it's pointless now, it looks like they've lost and unless we're missing major progress reports in the West it appears they're stalled just about everywhere and now they're dealing with effective counter attacks and ambushes everywhere. Do any security experts still think they can pull this off with measly invasion force of just 200,000? Is it really worth mobilizing all of Russia for and how would that go over at home?


If any RFAF commanders are even being allowed to look at disengagement, it’ll be a thankless task.  Unfortunately, I foresee an order-of-magnitude increase in attempts to make a mother-of-all-False-Flag attack to give justification to a RUS-demanded UKR sanctioned to let the RUS ‘peacekeepers’ return to RUS and the Have UKR pay RUS reparations for the unjustified attack on well-intentioned RUS benevolent actions.  And I would not at all be surprised to see a vindictive low-yield Tac Nuke (~7.5-10 kT) dropped on Karchiv as the cherry on Vlad’s F-all of you Ukrainians…


----------



## The Bread Guy

tomydoom said:


> ... they seem to have dropped regime change  as one of the demands.


Well, if Turkish state media quoting Israeli media is to be believed, it might still be in the contract just before the "bowl full of M&Ms with no yellow or blue ones" ...


> ... Israeli Channel 12, citing unnamed Israeli officials, that the Russians told several countries that *they don’t want to cause harm to the Ukrainian leader, but prefer to keep him alive and arrest him* ...


----------



## FJAG

The Bread Guy said:


> Meanwhile, yet another possible reason for Russia's not-war (via RUS independent - for now, anyway - media)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian Church Leader Appears to Blame Gay Pride Parades for Ukraine War - The Moscow Times
> 
> 
> The head of Russia’s Orthodox Church appeared to blame liberal Western values — drawing particular attention to gay pride parades — for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in his Sunday sermon.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.themoscowtimes.com


Well ... I guess that's just as good a stupid reason as all the others coming out of Moscow for this debacle.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Mills Bomb said:


> .... If they were serious about negotiating, they would have upheld their end of the cease-fire agreements and not shelled the civilians like the savages they are ...


You're right, but the fine print is what they fall back on.  "Kiev rejects humanitarian corridors" leaves out "that only allow evacuees to go to RUS or Belarus."

Recognizing the eastern statelets is another one:  as is at end of hostilities, including all the old UKR admin boundaries (which would add to the previously-occupied areas) or just to the areas they had pre-non-war?

#DevilIsInTheDetails


----------



## The Bread Guy

UK's Metro Police:  if you see something (while in Ukraine), say something (note the start date) ...








						Met Police War Crimes Team supporting International Criminal Court investigation
					

The Metropolitan Police’s War Crimes Team is gathering evidence in relation to alleged war crimes in Ukraine in support of the ICC investigation




					news.met.police.uk
				





> ... Officers are particularly keen to hear from anyone who may themselves have witnessed or been the victim of any war crimes in Ukraine *at any time from 21 November 2013 onwards*.





> ... To report a suspected war crime to the War Crimes team, visit our online reporting tool at: https://www.met.police.uk/advice/advice-and-information/war-crimes/af/report-a-war-crime/ ...


----------



## Czech_pivo

So Denmark just announced that their Defence spending will be increased to 2% of GDP and that they will make itself independent from Russian gas.

That now makes Germany and Denmark to publicly announce their meeting 2% of GDP and still nothing out from Federal Government.


----------



## Furniture

Czech_pivo said:


> So Denmark just announced that their Defence spending will be increased to 2% of GDP and that they will make itself independent from Russian gas.
> 
> That now makes Germany and Denmark to publicly announce their meeting 2% of GDP and still nothing out from Federal Government.


We have three oceans between us and Russia, and we have big mean older brother just to the South. Canada will likely continue merrily on it's way to disbanding the CAF via attrition of equipment, and personnel.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Someone explain this to me

1) Exhibit A: No mask and grasping hand using both his hands




2) Exhibit B: Only one wearing mask (for photo op for 100% certain) and bumping fists not shaking hands (though he did shake hands with Boris outside of #10 when he arrived.



Also - please note that it does not look like the LAWS have been delivered that were announced last week according to this snippet in a CBC news story:

"Canada is working on providing anti-tank weapons, rocket launchers, grenades and other non-lethal equipment. It has previously delivered machine guns, carbines, hand pistols and 1.5 million rounds of ammunition." 



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-ukraine-britain-netherlands-humanitarian-coalition-1.6375216


----------



## Mills Bomb

Furniture said:


> We have three oceans between us and Russia, and we have big mean older brother just to the South. Canada will likely continue merrily on it's way to disbanding the CAF via attrition of equipment, and personnel.



It's super ironic for sure, especially considering how vocal our DPM is about helping Ukraine and how vocal she has been against Putin. Seems like a lot of virtue-signalling to me with very little spending to back it up. I definitely feel like this is a time to get serious about spending and upgrading out military but the fact is that history seems to keep repeating itself, and that includes neglecting and underfunding our military. I hope I am wrong but the nobody has ever suggest anything to contrary as long as I've been alive as a Canadian.


----------



## Mills Bomb

Czech_pivo said:


> Someone explain this to me
> 
> 1) Exhibit A: No mask and grasping hand using both his hands
> 
> View attachment 69274
> 
> 
> 2) Exhibit B: Only one wearing mask (for photo op for 100% certain) and bumping fists not shaking hands (though he did shake hands with Boris outside of #10 when he arrived.
> 
> View attachment 69273
> 
> Also - please note that it does not look like the LAWS have been delivered that were announced last week according to this snippet in a CBC news story:
> 
> "Canada is working on providing anti-tank weapons, rocket launchers, grenades and other non-lethal equipment. It has previously delivered machine guns, carbines, hand pistols and 1.5 million rounds of ammunition."
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-ukraine-britain-netherlands-humanitarian-coalition-1.6375216



What's even to be surprised about. This mask situation happens literally every time he visits these people internationally. Everyone already knows JT's style at this point, it's not even worth debating anymore. I'm not saying there's any logic in it but it's not like we have some awesome alternative to replace him either. Anyway, this is about Ukraine and not JT's attempts to try and look like he still cares about stopping the spread.


----------



## Haggis

Mills Bomb said:


> It's super ironic for sure, especially considering how vocal our DPM is about helping Ukraine and how vocal she has been against Putin. Seems like a lot of virtue-signalling to me with very little spending to back it up. I definitely feel like this is a time to get serious about spending and upgrading out military but the fact is that history seems to keep repeating itself, and that includes neglecting and underfunding our military. I hope I am wrong but the nobody has ever suggest anything to contrary as long as I've been alive as a Canadian.


As long as Defence remains the largest *discretionary* line item in the Budget, nothing will change.  Priorities, y'know.


----------



## GR66

Czech_pivo said:


> That 'neutrality' part could be achieved if it included something along the lines of:
> 
> 1) If Ukrainian neutrality is violated by Russia/Belarus, then NATO forces have the right to assist Ukraine if Ukraine asks for assistance.
> 2) If NATO forces violate Ukrainian neutrality, then Russian/Belarus forces have the right to assist Ukraine if Ukraine asks for assistance.
> 3) If Ukraine does not ask for assistance, in the case of outside invasion, internal instability, civil war or violations of its sovereign territory, then neither Russia/Belarus or NATO can enter the territory of Ukraine.
> 4) Ukraine reserves the right to obtain military training from any third party country/countries within NATO or Russia/Belarus or any other sovereign nations
> 5) Ukraine reserves the right to obtain military arms/equipment from any third party country or countries
> 6) Ukraine reserves the ability to join EU


Or perhaps as a sovereign nation Ukraine can choose to ally with anyone they bloody well please?


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Mills Bomb said:


> It's super ironic for sure, especially considering how vocal our DPM is about helping Ukraine and how vocal she has been against Putin. Seems like a lot of virtue-signalling to me with very little spending to back it up. I definitely feel like this is a time to get serious about spending and upgrading out military but the fact is that history seems to keep repeating itself, and that includes neglecting and underfunding our military. I hope I am wrong but the nobody has ever suggest anything to contrary as long as I've been alive as a Canadian.


Hey, we gone full nuclear with our virtue signalling and ineffective sanctions, to ask for money for defence spending is more than we can give.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Comments from the Russian ex-Minister of Foreign Affairs.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500610676926005251


----------



## The Bread Guy

Shotgunning (claymore-ing?) the "U.S. biolabs in UKR" messaging via RUS state media (and this is just the English bits)....








						Joint Chiefs Chairman Secretly Visited Weapons Shipment Hub Near Ukrainian Border: Report
					

The United States and its allies have pumped over $3 billion in arms into Ukraine since the 2014 Maidan coup, and committed to send over $850 million more in military aid late last month after Russia began a military operation in the...




					sputniknews.com
				











						Ukrainian biolabs working with pathogens of plague destroyed
					

More than 320 containers were destroyed in Lviv, in which pathogens of leptospirosis, tularemia, brucellosis and plague were found




					english.pravda.ru
				





			https://tass.com/world/1418339
		



			https://tass.com/defense/1418347
		









						Kiev Regime Sought to Scrub Evidence of Pentagon-backed Biowarfare Programme, Russian MoD Reveals
					

The US Defence Threat Reduction Agency has been working in Ukraine since 2005, and been involved in the construction, modernization and operation of over a dozen biolabs suitable for storing or working with pathogens, including those used...




					sputniknews.com
				





			https://tass.com/world/1418079


----------



## KevinB

Colin Parkinson said:


> Comments from the Russian ex-Minister of Foreign Affairs.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500610676926005251


But really what can he say?

  If he says that Putin will use Nukes - then West looks for pre-emotive action and Putin takes him out.
  If he says Putin is not a rational actor - Putin takes him out, while others take Putin out.

He may have well have said "no comment"


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Shotgunning (claymore-ing?) the "U.S. biolabs in UKR" messaging via RUS state media (and this is just the English bits)....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Joint Chiefs Chairman Secretly Visited Weapons Shipment Hub Near Ukrainian Border: Report
> 
> 
> The United States and its allies have pumped over $3 billion in arms into Ukraine since the 2014 Maidan coup, and committed to send over $850 million more in military aid late last month after Russia began a military operation in the...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> sputniknews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian biolabs working with pathogens of plague destroyed
> 
> 
> More than 320 containers were destroyed in Lviv, in which pathogens of leptospirosis, tularemia, brucellosis and plague were found
> 
> 
> 
> 
> english.pravda.ru
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://tass.com/world/1418339
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://tass.com/defense/1418347
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Kiev Regime Sought to Scrub Evidence of Pentagon-backed Biowarfare Programme, Russian MoD Reveals
> 
> 
> The US Defence Threat Reduction Agency has been working in Ukraine since 2005, and been involved in the construction, modernization and operation of over a dozen biolabs suitable for storing or working with pathogens, including those used...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> sputniknews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://tass.com/world/1418079


So now Nazi's in League with Great Satan to make Bio-Weapons -- did he steal the Iranian 1990's playbook by accident?


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500879877741891589


----------



## Baloo

There have been scattered reports across social media regarding a night-time raid by Ukrainian Marines against a Russian-held airbase near Kherson. Ukrainian General Staff are reporting over 30 helicopters having been destroyed on the ground. There is limited information beyond the initial press release, which most platforms are using as primary evidence. That being said, there are attempts being made to corroborate.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500876567509147650


----------



## Prairie canuck

KevinB said:


> So now Nazi's in League with Great Satan to make Bio-Weapons -- did he steal the Iranian 1990's playbook by accident?


It could be a pre-emptive excuse for when and if the bio-weapons show up on the battlefield, "it's not Russia, it's from the US/UKR labs!"


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Russia unleashes it's armoured trains









						Colonelcassad
					

А вот и российский бронепоезд под Мелитополем. У свидомых истерика.




					t.me


----------



## Colin Parkinson

The Canadian author of deeply boring books notes that Russian logistics may not be that good.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500696057373769729


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500900777111470081

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500900732064649218


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> So now Nazi's in League with Great Satan to make Bio-Weapons -- did he steal the Iranian 1990's playbook by accident?


Why mess with success, right?

This, from Janes, on how RUS's doing C&C, shared under the fair dealing provisions of Canada's Copyright Act ....


> Russia has established an unprecedented command-and-control (C2) structure to co-ordinate its multipronged invasion of Ukraine.
> 
> For the first time it is simultaneously running a major operation through the headquarters of four military districts, which are the equivalent of four-star headquarters in Western military organisations. These new command arrangements have significantly contributed to the slow rate of advance of the Russian forces in the opening phase of the war, according to senior Western intelligence sources.
> 
> At least three of these headquarters are employing ground, air, army aviation, airborne, missile, and special forces, and one of the headquarters, the Southern Military District, is also integrating naval and amphibious forces.
> 
> Two of the district headquarters, the Central and Far Eastern, have re-deployed forward command elements from their home garrisons and are operating within the area of responsibility of the Western Military District and in Belarus.
> 
> UK Defence Intelligence has picked up these developments and has been identifying the axis of the advance of what it terms “military district groupings [for forces]” in its daily update since 24 February.
> 
> Indications of the moves to establish the C2 apparatus for the Ukraine operation emerged during ‘Exercise Allied Resolve 2022', which started in Belarus in January. This included the deployment of land, air, and air defence headquarters elements from the Eastern Military District. The Russian and Belarusian Ministries of Defence published reports and imagery of several C2 facilities during the exercise.
> 
> The Ukraine operation is integrated at a strategic level at the National Defense Control Center, which is inside the Russian Ministry of Defence building in central Moscow. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu was filmed by the TASS news agency on 1 March participating in a video conference from the centre with his senior operational commanders.
> 
> A senior Western official monitoring Russian forces in Ukraine told      _Janes _      on 4 March that the invasion, which involved establishing a C2 network to co-ordinate multiple operations, across multiple axes, was “beyond the scale anything the Russian armed forces had trained for before”.
> 
> He said the sheer scale of the operation was having an impact on the ability of the Russian military to pull together their forces into a coherent operation, an issue that is highlighted by the stalling of its armoured column to the northwest of Kyiv. “It is part of the problem and this is dislocating their command-and-control,” he said.
> 
> The inability of the Russian Aerospace Forces to fully neutralise Ukraine's air defences in the early days of the war was also limiting the ability of the Russians to utilise airborne C2 assets to control the advancing columns inside Ukraine. This is understood to be a reference to Iluyshin Il-22M airborne command post and Beriev A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft.
> 
> “Their airborne command-and-control aircraft are having to stand-off out of the range of air defence threats,” said the official. He said Russian commanders were starting to adapt their operations and senior officers are increasingly moving up to front line areas to bring order and “impose their personality” to bring improvements to the operation. The increasing need for senior officers to visit the front has resulted in one army deputy commander, as well as a division and a regimental commander, being killed by Ukrainian fire, said the official.


----------



## KevinB

English translation 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500902369504153600


----------



## KevinB

Apparently Russia has deployed 100% of it's troops that where staged by the border.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500902870056685573


----------



## KevinB

What's ONE more War Crime when you have so many already...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500889232298192901


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500901819999997955

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500582639547437067


----------



## KevinB

More captured kit.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500906591306096641


----------



## Mills Bomb

If it's true that a Ukrainian commando raid on Kherson just took out 30 of the Russians helicopters, that nearly 10% of Russia's total helicopter strength wiped out in one raid, I really hope new details come out soon.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500582639547437067


Quick obit from Pskov back-yard media, mentioned as first casualties from the area (in Russian)...








						Первые псковичи погибли в ходе специальной военной операции
					

Михаил Ведерников сообщил о первых потерях в ходе специальной военной операции среди псковских военнослужащих. Информацию он разместил в своём официальном Телеграм-канале. Погибли два офицера-десантника, чья служба ранее была связана с 76-й десантно-штурмовой дивизией - Константин Зизевский и...




					www.gtrkpskov.ru


----------



## KevinB

Mills Bomb said:


> If it's true that a Ukrainian commando raid on Kherson just took out 30 of the Russians helicopters, that nearly 10% of Russia's total helicopter strength wiped out in one raid, I really hope new details come out soon.


Yesterday it was acknowledge that Russian Forces where making an Air Assault base there -- I guess the Ukrainians took exception to that 
  A couple of unconfirmed reports that the 247th was wiped out near to the last man.


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> Yesterday it was acknowledge that Russian Forces where making an Air Assault base there -- I guess the Ukrainians took exception to that
> A couple of unconfirmed reports that the 247th was wiped out near to the last man.


An entire regiment relegated to the past tense? That's a big deal, and can shift the entire tide of the battle.


----------



## Mills Bomb

KevinB said:


> Yesterday it was acknowledge that Russian Forces where making an Air Assault base there -- I guess the Ukrainians took exception to that
> A couple of unconfirmed reports that the 247th was wiped out near to the last man.


Fantastic. I hope we'll see some photos soon confirming the massive helicopter loss.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> More captured kit.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500906591306096641


At what point do the Russians start rolling out the captured German WWII material that's still stockpiled.....


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> One commentator I watch pointed out before 2014 large oil and gas reserves were found around Crimea. Part of russias grab there was economic, Ukraine can't sell gas to Europe if it doesn't have it. Thus keeping Europe dependent on Russian gas, keeping the Russian economy afloat.


This is bigger even if you consider the notion that Russia is running out of cheap gas. They're having to move North, into expensive arctic drilling as their central oil fields run dry. They *need *Black Sea O&G.

Fun part is, even if they keep Crimea, the peace deal can include special provisions with regards to the Azov and Black seas.


MilEME09 said:


> An entire regiment relegated to the past tense? That's a big deal, and can shift the entire tide of the battle.


Bro. I wheezed hard at this

You should read _*Candide: or, All for the Best*_ (1759), by Voltaire. It's chock-full of such delicious euphemisms.


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> An entire regiment relegated to the past tense? That's a big deal, and can shift the entire tide of the battle.


Can anyone see a scenario where Lukashenko says 'No' to Vladdy and openly sides with the Ukrainians?


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500879877741891589


“Hell Hath No Fury…”


----------



## Good2Golf

First it was UKR posting video of young RUS captured soldiers being fed hot tea and warm food and being able to phone thier mothers.

Now RUS is getting up to speed in the IO war rolling out its side of things…lining up children dying of cancer to form a ‘Z’ to support the invasion.  Stay classy, Russia! 🙄

Ukraine-Russia latest news: Mayor 'shot dead by Russians' - as Ukraine 'retakes' town and airport in sign of difficulty for Putin



> Terminally ill children in Russia line up outside hospice in shape of 'Z' to show support for invasion​Vladimir Vavilov, chairman of a cancer charity that runs a hospice in the city of Kazan, organised the children and their mothers to line up to produce the letter.
> The letter Z has become a propaganda symbol showing support for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his military invasion of Ukraine.
> Mr Vavilov posted the photo and a caption on the hospice website, according to The Daily Telegraph.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> "Our patients and entire team took part in it, about 60 people in total," he's quoted as saying. "People lined up in the form of the letter 'Z'.
> "In our left hand we held leaflets with the flags of the LPR, DPR, Russia and Tatarstan and we clenched our right hand into a fist."
> LPR and DPR stand for the Luhansk People's Republic and the Donetsk People's Republic - rebel regions of Ukraine that Mr Putin has recognised as independent states.


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> Yesterday it was acknowledge that Russian Forces where making an Air Assault base there -- I guess the Ukrainians took exception to that
> A couple of unconfirmed reports that the 247th was wiped out near to the last man.



Well, if The Daily Express printed it... 

Dozens of Putin helicopters 'blown to smithereens overnight in direct Ukraine action raid'​UKRAINIAN forces claim to have blown 30 Russian helicopters to smithereens at Kherson airfield in an overnight "direct action raid" shaming Vladimir Putin's war ambitions in the process.​
w.express.co.uk/news/world/1576722/Ukraine-war-news-vladimir-putin-russia-helicopters-destroyed


----------



## Good2Golf

Hmmm…DA…that’s a very specific description, I’d say.  Well done UKR SOF.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> Can anyone see a scenario where Lukashenko says 'No' to Vladdy and openly sides with the Ukrainians?


Only one where Luka has grown tired of governing, living or both.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500918368202891271


----------



## KevinB

You got to give DarthPutin credit 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500935631677145088


----------



## KevinB

Some Russian officials think invading Ukraine was 'a mistake' and are 'discouraged, frightened,' and 'making apocalyptic forecasts,' report says
					

The Russian journalist Farida Rustamova spoke to Kremlin officials for a Tuesday report. These accounts come from an English translation of her story.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Only one where Luka has grown tired of governing, living or both.


Yup


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500936836855865353


----------



## KevinB

Ukraine aid growing as lawmakers shape big budget bill
					

What we know about Russia's war on Ukraine, March 7.




					www.defensenews.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Yup
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500936836855865353


I don't shut the door to old Luka jumping to the Ukrainian side if he thought that he could get away with it.  If there's enough blood in the water a shark will turn on other sharks and attack/eat them a frenzy.  

Wound the Bear enough and it might just happen.  Realistically Vladdy doesn't have enough boots on the ground within Belarus or on its borders to be a serious concern over the short term.  As for air force concerns, if the Belorussians have enough AD to flood their airspace, Vladdy agaid would be hard pressed. 

Geographically they are in a much better position, with only their eastern flank to be concerned about.  They could strip their entire North-West, West and Southern fronts bare and push it all of the east. The capital is located far from the Russian border.  The only large Russian city even close to their border is Smolensk so the Russians would have an even more difficult time on re-supply. 

I wouldn't say no to the above scenario.  Stranger things have happened over the last little while.  

Besides, some CIA spook would have already thought about this scenario and if there is any remote chance of stripping both Ukraine and Belarus away from the Bear in one fell swoop, I'm sure that they would jump at this chance.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500925248396574725
Rumors of a second counter attack around Kharkiv. Also reports circulating that the final seize of Kyiv will begin within 24-96 hours


----------



## rmc_wannabe

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500925248396574725
> Rumors of a second counter attack around Kharkiv. Also reports circulating that the final seize of Kyiv will begin within 24-96 hours


24-96hrs might as well be "by Christmas" in Ops planning terms.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500800271647129602


----------



## KevinB

Larger screen sized view of the map from above.


----------



## dapaterson

Freddie Mercury joins the AD discussion



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500828305464905732


----------



## Altair




----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500929760217735168


----------



## KevinB

That's going to hurt...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500955210126139400

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500953999134150663


----------



## KevinB

Meanwhile, setting the bar for modern Wartime leaders.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500953180313640961


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Meanwhile, setting the bar for modern Wartime leaders.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500953180313640961


People said this war had no Churchill. 

They were wrong. 

Its a shame that he wasn't in a great power.


----------



## Quirky

KevinB said:


> Meanwhile, setting the bar for modern Wartime leaders.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500953180313640961


I wouldn’t give him too much credit, he’s only having to deal with artillery, aircraft and cruise missiles threatening his life, it’s not like there are trucks honking outside his office.


----------



## KevinB

Now for the downside.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500925248396574725and large image of the map.

Russia is still moving forward in a lot of areas, and still has an enormous amount of combat power they can bring to bear.
   Russia appears to be attempt to gather forces towards Kyiv - and repel some of the UA gains.

IF they don't run out of fuel

Whoops

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500422445697843206


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> That's going to hurt...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500955210126139400
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500953999134150663


Any relation to THE Gen. Gerasimov?

_Edit to add:_

Found a source that notes some relation, but then I KRP readoj g and found a whole lineman out corruption on the 15th MRB…which MGem Gerasimov (then Col. in Crimea days) commanded.  I suspect the issues were/are not limited to just 15 MRB in the CMD.









						Commanders of 15th MRB ready to carry out Kremlin‘s criminal orders - InformNapalm.org (English)
					

Biographies of five recent commanders of 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade (Central Military District, Russia), who have been in command of unit since 2010



					informnapalm.org


----------



## KevinB

Good2Golf said:


> Any relation to THE Gen. Gerasimov?


Unsure - Wikipedia listed Valery G as deceased in combat operations today, so they mixed it up.
   He's 66 - the younger one may be a son or brother - but...


----------



## daftandbarmy

Germany continues to help fund the Russian war effort....

Germany sticks with Putin for its oil and gas​Chancellor Olaf Scholz brushes off pressure from Ukraine and the US to stop pouring money into the Kremlin’s war coffers.


BERLIN — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Monday pushed back hard against calls from the U.S. and Ukraine for a ban on imports of Russian gas and oil as part of international sanctions on Moscow.

One of the darkest ironies of Russian President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine is that Europe is helping fund the Kremlin's war machine through energy payments. Despite repeated pledges to reduce dependence on Russia after the invasion of Crimea in 2014, the EU has failed to combat its hydrocarbon addiction. Dismissing fears that Putin was a serious threat, Germany was long the main proponent of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline pumping gas from Russian export monopoly Gazprom straight to Germany.

Although Berlin finally had to freeze the Nord Stream 2 project after the invasion of Ukraine, Scholz made clear that Europe's biggest economy would not make any further energy sacrifices and would keep buying from Russia.









						Germany sticks with Putin for its oil and gas
					

Chancellor Olaf Scholz brushes off pressure from Ukraine and the US to stop pouring money into the Kremlin’s war coffers.




					www.politico.eu


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

daftandbarmy said:


> Germany continues to help fund the Russian war effort....
> 
> Germany sticks with Putin for its oil and gas​Chancellor Olaf Scholz brushes off pressure from Ukraine and the US to stop pouring money into the Kremlin’s war coffers.
> 
> 
> BERLIN — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Monday pushed back hard against calls from the U.S. and Ukraine for a ban on imports of Russian gas and oil as part of international sanctions on Moscow.
> 
> One of the darkest ironies of Russian President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine is that Europe is helping fund the Kremlin's war machine through energy payments. Despite repeated pledges to reduce dependence on Russia after the invasion of Crimea in 2014, the EU has failed to combat its hydrocarbon addiction. Dismissing fears that Putin was a serious threat, Germany was long the main proponent of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline pumping gas from Russian export monopoly Gazprom straight to Germany.
> 
> Although Berlin finally had to freeze the Nord Stream 2 project after the invasion of Ukraine, Scholz made clear that Europe's biggest economy would not make any further energy sacrifices and would keep buying from Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Germany sticks with Putin for its oil and gas
> 
> 
> Chancellor Olaf Scholz brushes off pressure from Ukraine and the US to stop pouring money into the Kremlin’s war coffers.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.politico.eu


So all those "German Green Energy" memes, designed to make NA look like bad people, I've seen for a couple years were wrong??  Say it ain't so....


----------



## RangerRay

Putin’s forces in Ukraine war are decimated, says UK defence chief
					

Russia’s lead forces have been “decimated” and it is not inevitable that it will succeed in taking over Ukraine, the head of the UK’s armed forces has said.Admi




					www.thetimes.co.uk
				




“Russia’s lead forces have been “decimated” and it is not inevitable that it will succeed in taking over Ukraine, the head of the UK’s armed forces has said.”


----------



## Altair

RangerRay said:


> Putin’s forces in Ukraine war are decimated, says UK defence chief
> 
> 
> Russia’s lead forces have been “decimated” and it is not inevitable that it will succeed in taking over Ukraine, the head of the UK’s armed forces has said.Admi
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thetimes.co.uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> “Russia’s lead forces have been “decimated” and it is not inevitable that it will succeed in taking over Ukraine, the head of the UK’s armed forces has said.”


Over/under on top Russian generals and chief of staffs suddenly commiting suicide?


----------



## kev994

KevinB said:


> Now for the downside.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500925248396574725and large image of the map.
> View attachment 69285
> Russia is still moving forward in a lot of areas, and still has an enormous amount of combat power they can bring to bear.
> Russia appears to be attempt to gather forces towards Kyiv - and repel some of the UA gains.
> 
> IF they don't run out of fuel
> 
> Whoops
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500422445697843206


Well, it seams that logistics branches worldwide wide will not have to worry about a shortage of material for writing speeches for the next century or so.


----------



## suffolkowner

Altair said:


> Over/under on top Russian generals and chief of staffs suddenly commiting suicide?


They get to lead the invasion from the tip of the spear


----------



## Mills Bomb

A Ukrainian source is claiming they sunk Russian patrol boat Vasily Bykov, one of only four large Russian patrol ships and one of the ships involved capturing Snake Island. The Ukrainians are saying they lured it into a trap and then hit it with rocket propelled artillery, they are claiming it was first damaged and has now sank.

Hopefully this will be confirmed one way or another soon, it would certainly be another very expensive and humiliating loss. Article available here:








						Невозможное возможно! Украинский флот показал зубы   | Новости Одессы
					





					dumskaya.net


----------



## Altair

suffolkowner said:


> They get to lead the invasion from the tip of the spear









When you're right, you're right.


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> That's going to hurt...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500955210126139400
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500953999134150663


No, it's all part of the plan. They're just testing the enemy's capabilities.

They're gonna send their good generals any minute now!


----------



## Remius

kev994 said:


> Well, it seams that logistics branches worldwide wide will not have to worry about a shortage of material for writing speeches for the next century or so.


We’re never going to hear the end of it lol.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Blackadder1916 said:


> While a crop duster is a potential delivery system for chemical or biological weapons, it has many limitations during "military" operations.  Primarily, to put the agent on target it has to go low and slow directly over the target.  Even when a force has air superiority, "low and slow" doesn't bode well.



If you really care about 'the target/area'.  If you don't care about the area size and just want to deny and enemy us of it...let 'er rip.   NBC Survey/CRTs are time-consuming and nerve-wracking.  Decon...how many people/how much resources would that take away from "the front"?

Nuisance minefields do their job, even without blowing off tracks and feet.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> Any relation to THE Gen. Gerasimov?
> 
> _Edit to add:_
> 
> Found a source that notes some relation, but then I KRP readoj g and found a whole lineman out corruption on the 15th MRB…which MGem Gerasimov (then Col. in Crimea days) commanded.  I suspect the issues were/are not limited to just 15 MRB in the CMD.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Commanders of 15th MRB ready to carry out Kremlin‘s criminal orders - InformNapalm.org (English)
> 
> 
> Biographies of five recent commanders of 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade (Central Military District, Russia), who have been in command of unit since 2010
> 
> 
> 
> informnapalm.org


Informnapalm.org is good at rooting out dox'y stuff on social media, so if they're not sure, it must not be clear from OS info.  No mention of a familial relationship in UKR mil int's statement (Google translation in quote) ...


> Another loss among the senior command staff of the occupying army. During the fighting near Kharkiv, Vitaly Gerasimov, a Russian military leader, major general, chief of staff and first deputy commander of the 41st Army of the Central Military District of Russia, was killed. A number of senior Russian army officers were also killed and wounded.
> 
> Vitaly Gerasimov took part in the second Chechen war and the Russian military operation in Syria. He received a medal "for the return of the Crimea."
> 
> The data obtained also indicate significant problems with communication in the occupier's army and with the evacuation of their broken units.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Kat Stevens said:


> It takes more than a couple of days of -20 for the ground to freeze hard enough to hold up anything bigger than one of those self propelled roto-tillers.



Also on the plus side, if it's in the track, return rollers, all that "stuff", it can also freeze had as concrete and, at the very least, really slow down any maint that might need to be done, or possibly increase the NEED for maint.

Throwing a track never sped anyone up...


----------



## Eye In The Sky

HiTechComms said:


> Hindsight 2020.
> 
> I rather not be at war with Russia. Its agreed that would be bad for everyone  Russia;  they are, in reality, "surrounded". Even if they take Ukraine



Accurate?


----------



## Altair

Eye In The Sky said:


> Accurate?


----------



## Eye In The Sky

MilEME09 said:


> Can't find anything that might be in Polish or other inventories that isn't western, but they probably have MIG compatible missiles. No joy on ground based launchers other then newer systems like HiMars



Go old school, put some explosives on the joint of the prop/shaft if they can catch them at anchor;  old school "frogman" ops?


----------



## KevinB

Remius said:


> We’re never going to hear the end of it lol.


If it is a lesson taken properly to heart, it shouldn't necessarily fade.

Look at what occurred in Afghanistan and Iraq to supply convoys. 
  As a result security needed to be added to the convoys.
Some Armies learned that lesson - making Counter Assault Teams, and having their CSS personnel conduct a lot of "Infantry" training with complex ambushes and fire and movement.

There is no free lunch in the Asymetrical Battle Space - unless you take it from an undefended convoy


----------



## Kat Stevens

Eye In The Sky said:


> Go old school, put some explosives on the joint of the prop/shaft if they can catch them at anchor;  old school "frogman" ops?


Mine the Northern mouth of the Bosporus


----------



## Eye In The Sky

suffolkowner said:


> Well its time to send them back



They are going back;  in July 2022 - 6 of them.  Google it.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500981170280050688


----------



## suffolkowner

Eye In The Sky said:


> Go old school, put some explosives on the joint of the prop/shaft if they can catch them at anchor;  old school "frogman" ops?




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500805821252489217


----------



## KevinB

Probably not sustainable...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500994552542474244


----------



## Remius

KevinB said:


> If it is a lesson taken properly to heart, it shouldn't necessarily fade.
> 
> Look at what occurred in Afghanistan and Iraq to supply convoys.
> As a result security needed to be added to the convoys.
> Some Armies learned that lesson - making Counter Assault Teams, and having their CSS personnel conduct a lot of "Infantry" training with complex ambushes and fire and movement.
> 
> There is no free lunch in the Asymetrical Battle Space - unless you take it from an undefended convoy


I meant it tongue and cheek lol.  Lots of lessons learned in this conflict.  Some macro some micro,  all good ones though. Hopefully will be taken seriously.


----------



## MilEME09

Meanwhile in the south


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500966863701958664


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Weinie said:


> Better hope that there are more than a *few* moths. They have about 6000 nukes. Even if 25% successfully launch, my kids are going to have a very shitty and/or short life.



I'm likely going to be raked for this but....I don't believe Russia will go nuclear.  Putin might be willing, maybe some of the hardliners...but I don't believe the entire "upper echelon" of Russian govt/military are willing.

Why?

Simple;  they also care about their kids, they have to spread their entire arsenal "all over the world", and most of the world has ones pointing right back at them.

It is the END...totally, forever, of Russia.

Putin announcing "he deployed his nuc submarines to the Barents".  I know most people might have went "OMG!!!".  I took another bite of my apple.  _meh_

Ready for the raking....


----------



## KevinB

Eye In The Sky said:


> Putin announcing "he wants us to sink  his nuc submarines to the Barents".


Fixed it for you 

Edit - I don't think I am being overly cavalier about it -- I posted my thoughts on the Nuclear matter earlier.
   Going Strategic Nuclear for Russia means they are done - finished erased from the planet.  I don't see anyone going that far - or living long enough beside folks who aren't willing to go that far.


----------



## TacticalTea

Eye In The Sky said:


> I'm likely going to be raked for this but....I don't believe Russia will go nuclear.  Putin might be willing, maybe some of the hardliners...but I don't believe the entire "upper echelon" of Russian govt/military are willing.
> 
> Why?
> 
> Simple;  they also care about their kids, they have to spread their entire arsenal "all over the world", and most of the world has ones pointing right back at them.
> 
> It is the END...totally, forever, of Russia.
> 
> Putin announcing "he deployed his nuc submarines to the Barents".  I know most people might have went "OMG!!!".  I took another bite of my apple.  _meh_
> 
> Ready for the raking....


No, I agree with you.

The nuke is not anyone's first option. So the idea that anyone would use nukes before any invading troops made it on Russian or American soil is honestly ridiculous to me.

I don't believe the notion that Putin has gone insane, and the idea that he can just end the world at the push of a button is also false. Operators and officers have to actually do the targeting and execute the launch sequence. 

The guy wants to restore the Russian empire, not annihilate any hopes for its restoration.


----------



## Prairie canuck

Just curious but is there a reason why Poland's airspace is so empty? I realize there's a detour everyone has to take around Ukraine but still..


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Furniture said:


> We have three oceans between us and Russia, and we have big mean older brother just to the South. Canada will likely continue merrily on it's way to disbanding the CAF via attrition of equipment, and personnel.



FRP v2.0;  no payout, early retirements or other "benefits to the member for being selected"...


----------



## Remius

Eye In The Sky said:


> FRP v2.0;  no payout, early retirements or other "benefits to the member for being selected"...


Russia seems to being doing its own version of FRP right now…


----------



## KevinB

Prairie canuck said:


> Just curious but is there a reason why Poland's airspace is so empty? I realize there's a detour everyone has to take around Ukraine but still..


Not empty - just not visible.


----------



## GK .Dundas

Remius said:


> Russia seems to being doing its own version of FRP right now…


Well the Ukrainians seem to be doing fair bit of the work for them. But I'm not one to quibble.


----------



## Quirky

Prairie canuck said:


> Just curious but is there a reason why Poland's airspace is so empty? I realize there's a detour everyone has to take around Ukraine but still..


It’s also 3am local, doubt too many flights around that time anyway.


----------



## MilEME09

Canada ‘actively’ looking at sending drone cameras to Ukraine: Anand - National | Globalnews.ca
					

The federal government has not publicly disclosed sending any cameras, but videos online show Turkish drones with Canadian cameras being used to destroy Russian columns.




					globalnews.ca
				




Canadian connection to the TB2


----------



## Kat Stevens

MilEME09 said:


> Canada ‘actively’ looking at sending drone cameras to Ukraine: Anand - National | Globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> The federal government has not publicly disclosed sending any cameras, but videos online show Turkish drones with Canadian cameras being used to destroy Russian columns.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canadian connection to the TB2





Canadian Tire, Best Buy and The Source all scrambling to fill government drone orders.


----------



## Prairie canuck

KevinB said:


> Not empty - just not visible.


OK, gotcha.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501016031019601921
New footage of a TB2 striking the massive Convoy north of Kyiv. A lot of strikes in AA systems, are these drones not being picked up on Russian radar?


----------



## OldSolduer

KevinB said:


> Probably not sustainable...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500994552542474244


What do you mean Comrade when you say we closed the "reeducation" camps????


----------



## Weinie

Eye In The Sky said:


> I'm likely going to be raked for this but....I don't believe Russia will go nuclear.  *Putin might be willing, maybe some of the hardliners*...but I don't believe the entire "upper echelon" of Russian govt/military are willing.
> 
> Why?
> 
> Simple;  they also care about their kids, they have to spread their entire arsenal "all over the world", and most of the world has ones pointing right back at them.
> 
> It is the END...totally, forever, of Russia.
> 
> Putin announcing "he deployed his nuc submarines to the Barents".  I know most people might have went "OMG!!!".  I took another bite of my apple.  _meh_
> 
> Ready for the raking....


I pray that you are right, and I believe that most care about their kids the way that we do. Let's just hope that none of the hardliners you mentioned above are captaining a Borey class SSBN.


----------



## Kat Stevens

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501016031019601921
> New footage of a TB2 striking the massive Civil north of Ukraine. A lot of strikes in AA systems, are these drones not being picked up on Russian radar?


The batteries to run them are all way in the back of the sea can on the last truck.


----------



## OldSolduer

Weinie said:


> I pray that you are right, and I believe that most care about their kids the way that we do. Let's just hope that none of the hardliners you mentioned above aren't captaining a Borey class SSBN.


So no Red October? 

Nukes should get everyone's attention. Most people have no idea what havoc even ONE can raise.


----------



## Kat Stevens

OldSolduer said:


> So no Red October?
> 
> Nukes should get everyone's attention. Most people have no idea what havoc even ONE can raise.


Goes one of two ways. Either one small nuke is enough to make the Ukrainians consider how many lives they're willing to lose and submit, or the world sees it as a provocation and a willingness to go full retard, and Russia glows green for the next 1000 years.


----------



## OldSolduer

Kat Stevens said:


> Goes one of two ways. Either one small nuke is enough to make the Ukrainians consider how many lives they're willing to lose and submit, or the world sees it as a provocation and a willingness to go full retard, and Russia glows green for the next 1000 years.


And so would North America.


----------



## Weinie

Kat Stevens said:


> Goes one of two ways. Either one small nuke is enough to make the Ukrainians consider how many lives they're willing to lose and submit, or the world sees it as a provocation and a willingness to go full retard, and Russia the planet glows green for the next 1000 years.


FTFY.


----------



## MilEME09

Kat Stevens said:


> Goes one of two ways. Either one small nuke is enough to make the Ukrainians consider how many lives they're willing to lose and submit, or the world sees it as a provocation and a willingness to go full retard, and Russia glows green for the next 1000 years.


But would it fix global warming?


----------



## KevinB

Weinie said:


> I pray that you are right, and I believe that most care about their kids the way that we do. Let's just hope that none of the hardliners you mentioned above are captaining a Borey class SSBN.


Those realistically aren't the ones to worry about.
  They will be sunk before they get the order, they know they have shadows too - and I suspect many captains would flinch before trying to come to a launch depth.

The ones to worry about IMHO are the land based ICBM fleet - the truck mobile ones (that aren't out of gas), as they try to stay mobile.   Fixed sites can probably mostly be neutralized prior/during launch - and the bombers won't make it much off the runways.


Kat Stevens said:


> Goes one of two ways. Either one small nuke is enough to make the Ukrainians consider how many lives they're willing to lose and submit, or the world sees it as a provocation and a willingness to go full retard, and Russia glows green for the next 1000 years.


I suspect Vlad might be willing to detonate a low yield in Belarus near Ukraine at this point in time - shows willingness to use it, but doesn't necessarily cause major issues to NATO.


----------



## Kat Stevens

MilEME09 said:


> But would it fix global warming?


Probably not, but it would most likely create a new non deadly strain of covid with absolutely no symptoms.


----------



## OldSolduer

I don't fear much of anything anymore. 

I fear nukes. For those that don't live past the flash, they are the lucky ones. Those that survive....not so lucky.


----------



## Weinie

KevinB said:


> Those realistically aren't the ones to worry about.
> They will be sunk before they get the order, they know they have shadows too - and I suspect many captains would flinch before trying to come to a launch depth.
> 
> The ones to worry about IMHO are the land based ICBM fleet - the truck mobile ones (that aren't out of gas), as they try to stay mobile.   Fixed sites can probably mostly be neutralized prior/during launch - and the bombers won't make it much off the runways.
> 
> I suspect Vlad might be willing to detonate a low yield in Belarus near Ukraine at this point in time - shows willingness to use it, but doesn't necessarily cause major issues to NATO.


I hope you are right, but you are placing a lot of trust in a system that has never been validated. I get it that subs have shadows, that THAAD would take out some, and maybe there is an SDI 2.0 that will get more. But 2000 warheads are a lot to take out.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Interesting video about the background behind the Russian logistics failure in Ukraine:





https://www.youtube.com/


----------



## OldSolduer

Weinie said:


> I hope you are right, but you are placing a lot of trust in a system that has never been validated. I get it that subs have shadows, that THAAD would take out some, and maybe there is an SDI 2.0 that will get more. But 2000 warheads are a lot to take out.


Agreed. One or two would probably slip through.

Life ain't a Tom Clancy novel....


----------



## Weinie

MilEME09 said:


> But would it fix global warming?


Yes, the Earth would be very warm.


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Weinie said:


> But 2000 warheads are a lot to take out.


I think the minute that order leaves his mouth that little drone a rather large country has watching him 24/7 gets involved real quick.


----------



## Weinie

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> I think the minute that order leaves his mouth that little drone a rather large country has watching him 24/7 gets involved real quick.


Again, I hope you are right.....................but.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500973690422452228
That's a nice fuel convoy, shame if something happened to it


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Oil prices soar, stocks tank as Russia-Ukraine war rages
					

Brent leaps to almost $140 a barrel, the highest level since 2008.




					www.aljazeera.com
				




You all ready for Great Recession/Depression 2.0?


----------



## TacticalTea

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Oil prices soar, stocks tank as Russia-Ukraine war rages
> 
> 
> Brent leaps to almost $140 a barrel, the highest level since 2008.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.aljazeera.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You all ready for Great Recession/Depression 2.0?


Such an absurd inversion from last year's -39$ (or was it in 2020?)


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

TacticalTea said:


> Such an absurd inversion from last year's -39$ (or was it in 2020?)


2020, it was a great time to pick up energy stocks at bargain basement prices.  I'm glad I did because they are offsetting the hits I'm taking elsewhere right now, particularly in the "Knowledge" economy.

FYI, gas is almost twice as expensive in Canada what it is in the US ATT.  Any politican that promises to repeal carbon taxes at this point should have the red carpet rolled out for them.

Also, in the land of knock on effects:

Ukraine and Russia produce a significant portion of the World's Wheat.  Russia also produces a lot of the World's fertilizer.






						Subscribe to read | Financial Times
					

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication




					www.ft.com
				




There is going to be plenty of more war to come when the famines come soon.  Plague, Famine and War.  One always leads to the other.


----------



## TacticalTea

Humphrey Bogart said:


> 2020, it was a great time to pick up energy stocks at bargain basement prices.  I'm glad I did because they are offsetting the hits I'm taking elsewhere.
> 
> FYI, gas is almost twice as expensive in Canada what it is in the US ATT.  Any politican that promises to repeal carbon taxes at this point should have the red carpet rolled out for them.
> 
> Also, in the land of knock on effects:
> 
> Ukraine and Russia produce a significant portion of the World's Wheat.  Russia also produces a lot of the World's fertilizer.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Subscribe to read | Financial Times
> 
> 
> News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ft.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There is going to be plenty of more war to come when the famines come soon.  Plague, Famine and War.  One always leads to the other.


In this economy, carbon taxes make no sense.

And though I could tolerate the qualifiers of conservative and centre-right, I'm also a strong advocate for green policies.

But what's the purpose of a carbon/gas tax? To reduce demand by increasing price. The price increase is already effected by supply-side factors.

It makes no sense right now for governments to impose gas and carbon taxes on their taxpayers, especially since the latter's purchasing power is already severely hamstrung.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500686525436149761
Little more detailed map


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

TacticalTea said:


> In this economy, carbon taxes make no sense.
> 
> And though I could tolerate the qualifiers of conservative and centre-right, I'm also a strong advocate for green policies.
> 
> But what's the purpose of a carbon/gas tax? To reduce demand by increasing price. The price increase is already effected by supply-side factors.
> 
> It makes no sense right now for governments to impose gas and carbon taxes on their taxpayers, especially since the latter's purchasing power is already severely hamstrung.


You're assuming our current crop of leadership (Federal and Provincial) think logically. 

Canadians are a special kind of stupid and are going to learn a hard lesson very soon.  Sunny ways are over and some of us have been saying it for a while, but nobody wanted to listen.  🤣


----------



## Zipperhead99

Some more interesting analysis









						Putin Losing the Wars He Started
					

The word “war” is presently banned in the official Russian discourse on Ukraine, but in fact the “special military operation,” launched on President Vladimir Putin’s order in the early morning hours of February 24, includes several wars fought in different domains. The massive re-invasion of...




					jamestown.org


----------



## Zipperhead99

and more...









						NATO should begin planning for Finland and Sweden to join the alliance - Breaking Defense
					

NATO leadership should start planning now so that if Sweden and Finland make the jump to joining the alliance, they can be welcomed in quickly, writes Gene Germanovich of RAND.




					breakingdefense.com


----------



## Altair

Zipperhead99 said:


> and more...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> NATO should begin planning for Finland and Sweden to join the alliance - Breaking Defense
> 
> 
> NATO leadership should start planning now so that if Sweden and Finland make the jump to joining the alliance, they can be welcomed in quickly, writes Gene Germanovich of RAND.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> breakingdefense.com


As a goodwill gesture, Canada will be buying the Gripen fighter jet.


----------



## GR66

Altair said:


> As a goodwill gesture, Canada will be buying the Gripen fighter jet.


And Volvo station wagons for our Armoured Recce units...


----------



## RedFive

GR66 said:


> And Volvo station wagons for our Armoured Recce units...


Still better than the TAPV, more safety features and less engine fires.


----------



## TacticalTea

RedFive said:


> Still better than the TAPV, more safety features and less engine fires.


Is that how the TAPVs are received? Only ever saw them on DOMOPS, seemed to work fine, but quite demanding maintenance-wise?


----------



## RedFive

TacticalTea said:


> Is that how the TAPVs are received? Only ever saw them on DOMOPS, seemed to work fine, but quite demanding maintenance-wise?


I won't derail an unrelated threat, but the reception on the TAPV had been decidedly chilly, mostly due to trying to "Canadianize" the design and shoehorn it where it does not in any way, shape, or form belong.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Altair said:


> As a goodwill gesture, Canada will be buying the Gripen fighter jet.


----------



## TacticalTea

RedFive said:


> I won't derail an unrelated threat, but the reception on the TAPV had been decidedly chilly, mostly due to trying to "Canadianize" the design and shoehorn it where it does not in any way, shape, or form belong.


I'm sure we can afford a reply or two of derailment ;P

What are the biggest complaints, in concrete terms


----------



## Jarnhamar

It doesn't make thump thump thump sounds.


----------



## Altair

Eye In The Sky said:


>


----------



## RedFive

TacticalTea said:


> I'm sure we can afford a reply or two of derailment ;P
> 
> What are the biggest complaints, in concrete terms


Well in the context of armoured recce, its too high, too heavy, too loud, too lightly armoured, not fast enough cross country and too short of range. But we don't do that any more, we're armoured cavalry now.

In terms of just being a decent armoured vehicle? The ground pressure is so high it collapses gravel roads in training areas, has a habit of catching fire during road moves, it tips over in a slight breeze and reliability is poor to say the least. A C-6 and GMG as main armament? Laughable.

It's better than the G-Wagon, but that's because, for all its failings, it actually has armour. There's an entire thread around here somewhere on its shortfalls and the lack of interest from most branches of the Army.


----------



## TacticalTea

RedFive said:


> Well in the context of armoured recce, its too high, too heavy, too loud, too lightly armoured, not fast enough cross country and too short of range. But we don't do that any more, we're armoured cavalry now.
> 
> In terms of just being a decent armoured vehicle? The ground pressure is so high it collapses gravel roads in training areas, has a habit of catching fire during road moves, it tips over in a slight breeze and reliability is poor to say the least. A C-6 and GMG as main armament? Laughable.
> 
> It's better than the G-Wagon, but that's because, for all its failings, it actually has armour. There's an entire thread around here somewhere on its shortfalls and the lack of interest from most branches of the Army.


Yeah I'm not surprised about ground pressure. 

All that armour on just four wheels... Physics is physics.

Same for stability. It's super tall. 

Thanks for the answer! 

Cheers


----------



## MilEME09

Eye In The Sky said:


>


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Excuse me as I shed a tear for these guys


----------



## Furniture

Altair said:


> As a goodwill gesture, Canada will be buying the Gripen fighter jet.


If we can get 120 Gripen Es into service in faster than 120 F35s, the Gripen might be the "right now" solution. 

Apparently the Russians struggle against Mig-29s, so the Gripen being less perfect than the F35 might not really be that big of a deal int he end...


----------



## Altair

Furniture said:


> If we can get 120 Gripen Es into service in faster than 120 F35s, the Gripen might be the "right now" solution.
> 
> Apparently the Russians struggle against Mig-29s, so the Gripen being less perfect than the F35 might not really be that big of a deal int he end...


I said what I said in jest, but I fully expect Eye in the Sky to reply to this to explain why everything you just wrote is wrong. 

And will be happening anyways


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> Canada ‘actively’ looking at sending drone cameras to Ukraine: Anand - National | Globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> The federal government has not publicly disclosed sending any cameras, but videos online show Turkish drones with Canadian cameras being used to destroy Russian columns.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canadian connection to the TB2


Tides change. When Azerbaijani TB2 drones (equipped with Canadian WESCAM INC. Mx-15D laser designator turrets) were thumping Armenian forces, Armenian-Canadians compalained and GoC suspended WESCAMS’s permit to export the technology. 

Now that Bayraktar TB2s, some still with WESCAM’s MX-15 are helping Ukraine against the Russians, the MX-15s are okay.  

#Canadadoesntbendwiththewind. 🙄


----------



## TacticalTea

Altair said:


> I said what I said in jest, but I fully expect Eye in the Sky to reply to this to explain why everything you just wrote is wrong.
> 
> And will be happening anyways


Well, I'm not a fan of F-35s but that's only because my version of the CAF is budgeted at 2% of GDP.

With current allocations, carrying on with it is probably the best we can do.


----------



## Prairie canuck

Europe and even the US are balking at cutting their Russian oil imports. So much for the "we stand together" chant. At least a billion$ a day into Russian coffers. WTF? Maybe if I just go to sleep it'll all be better in the morning...


----------



## Furniture

Prairie canuck said:


> Europe and even the US are balking at cutting their Russian oil imports. So much for the "we stand together" chant. At least a billion$ a day into Russian coffers. WTF? Maybe if I just go to sleep it'll all be better in the morning...


There is an element of Realpolitik at work here, shutting off Russian oil and gas would directly impact voters, and no Western politician would survive making life obviously worse for Western voters. 

I suspect they are exploring alternate options, but are looking for a solution that isn't summed up by " looks band in the newspapers, and upsets civilians at their breakfast".


----------



## The Bread Guy

A message brought to you on International Women's Day, courtesy of the men & women @ UKR's military intelligence web page (Google English - highlights mine - below from this link in Ukrainian)


> International Women's Day, which is celebrated today in Russia, has always been a special, almost "solid" holiday. On this day, Russian men have traditionally sought and are looking for opportunities to congratulate their women on the holiday.
> 
> Women of Russia!
> 
> *If your husband, son, brother or father is a serviceman, Rosguard or police officer, if he went on training or business trip in February this year, and if he did not congratulate you on the holiday - this is a very alarming signal. Most likely, your relative is in Ukraine, where he killed Ukrainian women and children, and now, most likely, he was killed or is in captivity.*
> *
> If your relative is still dear to you, there may be a chance to save him.
> *
> *Contact his immediate commanders with a request.* *If you are not answered, contact your superiors. If everyone is silent - BINGO! He is in Ukraine. Want to save him - come to Ukraine.* Maybe your relative is an outstanding lucky man and he was lucky to be captured. Maybe it's not too late to save him!
> 
> Once again from March 8, dear women of Russia!


Also, today's stats from the same site (linked summary in Ukrainian)

And finally, from another great parody site (this time, of RUS state media) on Twitter ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Aaaaand the coda to the "plane halted in Yellowknife w/RUS nationals on board" thing ...


> Transport Canada says a plane carrying two Russian nationals that was grounded in Yellowknife last week broke airspace restrictions.
> 
> It says the plane’s two pilots and the Russian who chartered the plane each have been fined $3,000, while the Geneva-based aircraft operator has been fined $15,000.
> 
> Transport Canada said the plane is not Russian-owned or operated, but it still broke Canadian aviation regulations ...


----------



## kev994

TacticalTea said:


> In this economy, carbon taxes make no sense.
> 
> And though I could tolerate the qualifiers of conservative and centre-right, I'm also a strong advocate for green policies.
> 
> But what's the purpose of a carbon/gas tax? To reduce demand by increasing price. The price increase is already effected by supply-side factors.
> 
> It makes no sense right now for governments to impose gas and carbon taxes on their taxpayers, especially since the latter's purchasing power is already severely hamstrung.


The average carbon tax get reimbursed so it doesn’t cost anything unless you’re consuming above average. If someone is consuming above average maybe they should consider whether they need to drive a pickup truck to work in an office, maybe pick up a bicycle instead. That’s kinda the whole point.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Prairie canuck said:


> Europe and even the US are balking at cutting their Russian oil imports. So much for the "we stand together" chant. At least a billion$ a day into Russian coffers. WTF? Maybe if I just go to sleep it'll all be better in the morning...



People will lose their interest in sticking it to Russia if they start paying double or triple for gas and other products.


----------



## Altair

kev994 said:


> The average carbon tax get reimbursed so it doesn’t cost anything unless you’re consuming above average. If someone is consuming above average maybe they should consider whether they need to drive a pickup truck to work in an office, maybe pick up a bicycle instead. That’s kinda the whole point.


The only argument against the carbon tax is that the federal one gives rebates but the provincial ones dont have to.

The federal carbon tax is vastly superior to the provincial ones.


----------



## KevinB

Jarnhamar said:


> People will lose their interest in sticking it to Russia if they start paying double or triple for gas and other products.


I got gas two days ago - it (regular) was over $5 a gallon, and I'd pay $100 a gallon if it meant screwing Russia.
*Premium was $1.85/gallon before Obama took office - I didn't look at Premium when I fueled up, because I have not been using it in many years.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

The Green Shift should have happened 20 years ago. It didn't.

We now face a world where the smallest course correction in the Oil and Gas world is catastrophic. To continue thinking we can turn off the taps and everything will be fine is false. 

Replacement technologies are now prohibitively expensive or, conversely, dependent on Oil and Gas for back end production (all the raw materials to make a Tesla need a diesel powered excavator to mine them out of the earth.) 

We will still need to have a horse and carriage while they build a better car. While that's happening, we're still going to need hay. Refusing to harvest it is going to starve out those who cannot make the leap with technology.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501073026426757123Jomini map 7 Mar 2022 2300hrs GMT


----------



## Dana381

Altair said:


> The only argument against the carbon tax is that the federal one gives rebates but the provincial ones dont have to.
> 
> The federal carbon tax is vastly superior to the provincial ones.



How long do you expect those rebates to last in a post covid world where GOC is forced to spend more on defense. I expect they will be on the chopping block very quickly.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Here's a tidbit of information that appeared in the National Post and I'm sure won't be picked up by other CDN news outlets.

"While the Canadian public and political establishment is almost universally on Ukraine’s side in its conflict with Russia, *a single politician has thus far come out in support of Moscow.* And this politician represents … the Green Party. *The Quebec Green Party,* to be specific, *whose leader Alex Tyrrell **said* Friday that *Russia’s justifications for the invasion are “reasonable” and that Canada should “stop sending arms to Ukraine.”* *Tyrrell seemed to be particularly taken with the promises* of Russian President Vladimir Putin *that the invasion was merely to accomplish the “denazification” of Ukraine.* This is probably where *we should mention the time in 2018 that a former candidate for the federal Green Party went to jail in Germany for denying the Holocaust.*


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501122180180029441


----------



## Altair

Dana381 said:


> How long do you expect those rebates to last in a post covid world where GOC is forced to spend more on defense. I expect they will be on the chopping block very quickly.


Right, because the gov has been very shy about running deficits, yes?


----------



## Quirky

I don’t expect any financial literacy from a government that doesn’t care about monetary policy.


----------



## Dana381

Altair said:


> Right, because the gov has been very shy about running deficits, yes?



The piper must be paid sometime


----------



## Altair

Dana381 said:


> The piper must be paid sometime


Isn't Japans debt to GDP something around 260 percent of GDP?

The piper isn't getting paid back in our lifetimes.


----------



## Portnord

Wouldn't the solution to the dilemma of buying Russian GAO be to pay them in rubles? Half joking, half...


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501122180180029441





Altair said:


> Isn't Japans debt to GDP something around 260 percent of GDP?
> 
> The piper isn't getting paid back in our lifetimes.


Which is partially offset by their massive personal savings rate so it’s less an issue.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> Which is partially offset by their massive personal savings rate so it’s less an issue.


Sure. Still isn't getting paid back in our lifetimes. 

anyways, back to the eastern European version of Helm's Deep


----------



## Dana381

Altair said:


> Isn't Japans debt to GDP something around 260 percent of GDP?
> 
> The piper isn't getting paid back in our lifetimes.



Oh but he is getting paid in our lifetime, how much of the budget goes to pay interest? According to one site it is $24 billion/year at current interest rates. That could pay off the F-35's in how many years?


----------



## Altair

Dana381 said:


> Oh but he is getting paid in our lifetime, how much of the budget goes to pay interest? According to one site it is $24 billion/year at current interest rates. That could pay off the F-35's in how many years?


You must mean the Saab Gripen.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

kev994 said:


> The average carbon tax get reimbursed so it doesn’t cost anything unless you’re consuming above average. If someone is consuming above average maybe they should consider whether they need to drive a pickup truck to work in an office, maybe pick up a bicycle instead. That’s kinda the whole point.


This is a lie.  

"The average carbon tax get reimbursed so it doesn't cost anything unless you're consuming above average"

It's a tax, taxes cost money, that's why they are called taxes LOL. 

As for not costing the average person money, that's also not true.  While some people may receive a rebate, that rebate is offset by the rise in cost of consumer goods and other supply side costs that get downloaded on to the customer.  

So while you may think a carbon tax is a good thing and believe you are doing your part, *don't believe it costs nothing*, that's just not true.


----------



## TheProfessional




----------



## kev994

Humphrey Bogart said:


> This is a lie.
> 
> "The average carbon tax get reimbursed so it doesn't cost anything unless you're consuming above average"
> 
> It's a tax, taxes cost money, that's why they are called taxes LOL.
> 
> As for not costing the average person money, that's also not true.  While some people may receive a rebate, that rebate is offset by the rise in cost of consumer goods and other supply side costs that get downloaded on to the customer.
> 
> So while you may think a carbon tax is a good thing and believe you are doing your part, *don't believe it costs nothing*, that's just not true.


The reality is that all of the major parties had a carbon tax in their platform last election. Whether you like it or not it's reality. So your options are a) complain about it while continuing to pay, b) adjust your consumption so that you pay less of it, I guess you could complain about it in this option too. "Do nothing" is normally the throwaway COA.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

kev994 said:


> The reality is that all of the major parties had a carbon tax in their platform last election. Whether you like it or not it's reality. So your options are a) complain about it while continuing to pay, b) adjust your consumption so that you pay less of it, I guess you could complain about it in this option too. "Do nothing" is normally the throwaway COA.


My retort to your original comment, it was merely to point out that Carbon Taxes do cost money, saying they don't is untrue.  I'll take your subject change as tacit admission to this on your part.

As for Carbon taxes themselves, my issue isn't with a carbon tax so much as I don't think the Canadian Government is a good steward of the money that is flowing in to their coffers but that is for a different discussion.

Bringing this back to the current discussion topic...

My personal opinion is the biggest danger to the World atm are ideologues.  Mostly because they are so dogmatic that they are unable to apply logic to their decision-making process. 

We would be in a heck of a lot better position as a Nation had our current Government(s) taken advantage of our incredibly strong position WRT our wealth of natural resources but the current crop of leaders in Ottawa is so ideologically opposed to it they are willing to shoot themselves in the foot rather than make a decision that would vastly improve the QoL and prosperity of this Country.

Nobody can argue the West wouldn't be better served with a reliable source of energy from a Country like Canada as opposed to Russia and OPEC?

Even Elon Musk thinks so:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499907549746937860

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499909806504779779


----------



## daftandbarmy

Canada: Going for Bronze...

Canada increasingly isolated as allies pledge more military funding in response to Ukraine invasion​War in Europe changing political calculus on defence spending​

When Donald Trump was making his most strident complaints about NATO allies spending too little on defence, some member nations — Canada, the Netherlands and Germany, in particular — seemed largely unmoved by the now-former U.S. president's broadsides.

But Russia's war on Ukraine — with all of its brutality and destruction — over the past two weeks seems to have succeeded where Trump and his predecessor, Barack Obama, failed.

At the best of times, debates about defence spending as a percentage of gross domestic product are sterile affairs that engage accountants, statisticians and those interested in the military — and almost no one else.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Prime Minister Mark Rutte of the Netherlands presented a study in contrasts on Monday when reporters asked whether Russia's attempt at regime change in Ukraine would goad allies into meeting the NATO spending benchmark of two per cent of national GDP.

Germany — perhaps the most pacifist power in Europe — overturned decades of foreign policy when Chancellor Olaf Scholz ordered weapons shipments to help prop up the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and pledged to meet NATO's spending target. (At the moment, Germany spends 1.5 per cent of its GDP on defence.)

Canada currently spends 1.39 per cent of its GDP on defence. Trudeau has long argued that his government has a plan to increase the defence budget to $32 billion over several years.

But Ottawa has never even pretended to have a plan to meet the two per cent target, despite the fact that the Conservative government of Stephen Harper committed to it in 2014, after Russia's annexation of Crimea.



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-russia-nato-trudeau-1.6376236?ref=mobilerss&cmp=newsletter_CBC%20News%20Top%20Headlines%20%20%E2%80%93%20Morning_1613_459450


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

daftandbarmy said:


> Canada: Going for Bronze...
> 
> Canada increasingly isolated as allies pledge more military funding in response to Ukraine invasion​​War in Europe changing political calculus on defence spending​
> 
> When Donald Trump was making his most strident complaints about NATO allies spending too little on defence, some member nations — Canada, the Netherlands and Germany, in particular — seemed largely unmoved by the now-former U.S. president's broadsides.
> 
> But Russia's war on Ukraine — with all of its brutality and destruction — over the past two weeks seems to have succeeded where Trump and his predecessor, Barack Obama, failed.
> 
> At the best of times, debates about defence spending as a percentage of gross domestic product are sterile affairs that engage accountants, statisticians and those interested in the military — and almost no one else.
> 
> Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Prime Minister Mark Rutte of the Netherlands presented a study in contrasts on Monday when reporters asked whether Russia's attempt at regime change in Ukraine would goad allies into meeting the NATO spending benchmark of two per cent of national GDP.
> 
> Germany — perhaps the most pacifist power in Europe — overturned decades of foreign policy when Chancellor Olaf Scholz ordered weapons shipments to help prop up the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and pledged to meet NATO's spending target. (At the moment, Germany spends 1.5 per cent of its GDP on defence.)
> 
> Canada currently spends 1.39 per cent of its GDP on defence. Trudeau has long argued that his government has a plan to increase the defence budget to $32 billion over several years.
> 
> But Ottawa has never even pretended to have a plan to meet the two per cent target, despite the fact that the Conservative government of Stephen Harper committed to it in 2014, after Russia's annexation of Crimea.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-russia-nato-trudeau-1.6376236?ref=mobilerss&cmp=newsletter_CBC%20News%20Top%20Headlines%20%20%E2%80%93%20Morning_1613_459450


This is clearly an unwanted distraction for the current ideologues occupying power in Ottawa.  

Bbbbbbbuuuuuuuuuuttttttttt..... wadda about the Great Reset!?


----------



## Good2Golf

Humphrey Bogart said:


> This is clearly an unwanted distraction for the current ideologues occupying power in Ottawa.
> 
> Bbbbbbbuuuuuuuuuuttttttttt..... wadda about the Great Reset!?


You mid-spelled Butts… 😉


----------



## tomydoom

Meanwhile in Ireland....

Someone rammed their truck "containing communion supplies" through the gates of the Russian Embassy.  Seems fair to me, if the Russians can ram T72s through Ukraine, someone may as well ram there truck through the embassy.  Somehow I doubt the Russians will apologise to and compensate the Ukrainians, as they want the Irish to do for them.









						Russia demands official apology & full compensation from Irish Government over Embassy incident - Extra.ie
					

Russia is demanding a formal apology and full compensation from the Irish government after a truck rammed through the Embassy's gates on Monday.



					extra.ie


----------



## rmc_wannabe

tomydoom said:


> Meanwhile in Ireland....
> 
> Someone rammed their truck "containing communion supplies" through the gates of the Russian Embassy.  Seems fair to me, if the Russians can ram T72s through Ukraine, someone may as well ram there truck through the embassy.  Somehow I doubt the Russians will apologise to and compensate the Ukrainians, as they want the Irish to do for them.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia demands official apology & full compensation from Irish Government over Embassy incident - Extra.ie
> 
> 
> Russia is demanding a formal apology and full compensation from the Irish government after a truck rammed through the Embassy's gates on Monday.
> 
> 
> 
> extra.ie


They didn't ram into anything. it's a "special parking operation"


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501243288241770502
More on the Armored Train

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501242621263589388


----------



## KevinB

Another Russian Helo down.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501237568477741058The replies are funny - scroll down for the tinder meme


----------



## dapaterson

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501237582415515665


----------



## tomydoom

I'm sure everyone will be glad to hear that the person that committed a "special parking operation" on the Russian embassy gates, has been granted, bail.   In the amount of €300, which they did not make him pay.  









						Bail granted to man accused of driving truck through the gates of Russian embassy in Dublin
					

Desmond Wisley was charged yesterday evening with dangerous driving at the embassy and criminal damage to its gates.




					www.thejournal.ie
				






tomydoom said:


> Meanwhile in Ireland....
> 
> Someone rammed their truck "containing communion supplies" through the gates of the Russian Embassy.  Seems fair to me, if the Russians can ram T72s through Ukraine, someone may as well ram there truck through the embassy.  Somehow I doubt the Russians will apologise to and compensate the Ukrainians, as they want the Irish to do for them.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia demands official apology & full compensation from Irish Government over Embassy incident - Extra.ie
> 
> 
> Russia is demanding a formal apology and full compensation from the Irish government after a truck rammed through the Embassy's gates on Monday.
> 
> 
> 
> extra.ie


----------



## The Bread Guy

tomydoom said:


> I'm sure everyone will be glad to hear that the person that committed a "special parking operation" on the Russian embassy gates, has been granted, bail.   In the amount of €300, which they did not make him pay.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Bail granted to man accused of driving truck through the gates of Russian embassy in Dublin
> 
> 
> Desmond Wisley was charged yesterday evening with dangerous driving at the embassy and criminal damage to its gates.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thejournal.ie


I'd stay away from tea, doorknobs or pointy umbrellas for the next little while if I was him ....


----------



## KevinB

Since I can not longer count the number of War crimes RF has penetrated - lets just add another.
  Lets use our cannon to mow down a random civilian car and it's occupants.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501162662369103872


----------



## Prairie canuck

The Bread Guy said:


> I'd stay away from tea, doorknobs or pointy umbrellas for the next little while if I was him ....


Really it's no big deal. I mean how much damage can one man do?   Oh, right...


----------



## KevinB

tomydoom said:


> I'm sure everyone will be glad to hear that the person that committed a "special parking operation" on the Russian embassy gates, has been granted, bail.   In the amount of €300, which they did not make him pay.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Bail granted to man accused of driving truck through the gates of Russian embassy in Dublin
> 
> 
> Desmond Wisley was charged yesterday evening with dangerous driving at the embassy and criminal damage to its gates.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thejournal.ie





Prairie canuck said:


> Really it's no big deal. I mean how much damage can one man do?   Oh, right...


Assuming the FSB actually would bother at this point.  They may be a little distracted either trying to do that to Putin, or others trying to ensure that it isn't done to Putin...


----------



## KevinB

Less optimistic report 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501241995683151880


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501263230966149130

and DarthPutin strikes again

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501264368062763009


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501186427660509185


----------



## KevinB

and someone gets it.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501263533505404930


----------



## KevinB

Meanwhile Russian currency still in free fall. 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501236124961886212


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> Meanwhile Russian currency still in free fall.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501236124961886212


Hopefully it ends similarly to Nicolae Ceausescu... in an alley behind the Kremlin.


----------



## ModlrMike

I believe that Russia's historical precedent is a drive in the woods.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

ModlrMike said:


> I believe that Russia's historical precedent is a drive in the woods.


Not in 2022. have you seen the gas prices?!


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> and someone gets it.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501263533505404930


Yup, that's what I've been thinking since the weekend. It's now a question of when and where.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Yup, that's what I've been thinking since the weekend. It's now a question of when and where.


I've been expecting it before Russia invaded - a guy like Putin won't stop till he's dead or gets what he wants...


----------



## Czech_pivo

Hot off the press.

Poland shifted all of its MIG-29's to Ramstein airbase in D-land and place them 'at the disposal of the US govt'.

EDIT:  Adding one of the links that I've found this under.









						Pentagon rejects Polish plan to give fighter jets to U.S. to supply Ukraine
					

The plan "raises serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance," Kirby said.




					www.axios.com


----------



## Blackadder1916

Statement of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland in connection with the statement by the US Secretary of State on providing airplanes to Ukraine - Ministry of Foreign Affairs Republic of Poland - Gov.pl website
					






					www.gov.pl
				



Statement of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland in connection with the statement by the US Secretary of State on providing airplanes to Ukraine​The authorities of the Republic of Poland, after consultations between the President and the Goverment, are ready to deploy – immediately and free of charge – all their MIG-29 jets to the Ramstein Air Base and place them at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America. 

At the same time, Poland requests the United States to provide us with used aircraft with corresponding operational capabilities. Poland is ready to immediately establish the conditions of purchase of the planes. 

The Polish Government also requests other NATO Allies – owners of MIG-29 jets – to act in the same vein.


----------



## Quirky

KevinB said:


> Since I can not longer count the number of War crimes RF has penetrated - lets just add another.
> Lets use our cannon to mow down a random civilian car and it's occupants.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501162662369103872


NATO - Ukraine not a member, don't care. lalalalalala.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Blackadder1916 said:


> Statement of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland in connection with the statement by the US Secretary of State on providing airplanes to Ukraine - Ministry of Foreign Affairs Republic of Poland - Gov.pl website
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.gov.pl
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Statement of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland in connection with the statement by the US Secretary of State on providing airplanes to Ukraine​The authorities of the Republic of Poland, after consultations between the President and the Goverment, are ready to deploy – immediately and free of charge – all their MIG-29 jets to the Ramstein Air Base and place them at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America.
> 
> At the same time, Poland requests the United States to provide us with used aircraft with corresponding operational capabilities. Poland is ready to immediately establish the conditions of purchase of the planes.
> 
> The Polish Government also requests other NATO Allies – owners of MIG-29 jets – to act in the same vein.


So, how do these planes fly from the Ramstein to Ukraine?  I'm certain that the Russians will be watching the flight path of these planes into Ukraine very carefully and then looking to pummel that location/locations with everything that they have. 

Will these planes be armed when they leave Germany on their way back to Ukraine?  I'm assuming that they would need to be in case waiting Russians MIGs were ready to pounce once they crossed back into Ukraine.  Did Poland also include weapons stock with the planes?

There are so many variables here.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Blackadder1916 said:


> Statement of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland in connection with the statement by the US Secretary of State on providing airplanes to Ukraine - Ministry of Foreign Affairs Republic of Poland - Gov.pl website
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.gov.pl
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Statement of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland in connection with the statement by the US Secretary of State on providing airplanes to Ukraine​The authorities of the Republic of Poland, after consultations between the President and the Goverment, are ready to deploy – immediately and free of charge – all their MIG-29 jets to the Ramstein Air Base and place them at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America.
> 
> At the same time, Poland requests the United States to provide us with used aircraft with corresponding operational capabilities. Poland is ready to immediately establish the conditions of purchase of the planes.
> 
> The Polish Government also requests other NATO Allies – owners of MIG-29 jets – to act in the same vein.


Nice little shell game here. Brilliant.


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> Yup, that's what I've been thinking since the weekend. It's now a question of when and where.


Given Russia is now blocking exports to fuel its war machine, conflict may be the only choice to keep the economy going. If Russia uses any CRBN in Ukraine, I suspect gloves will come off.


----------



## FormerHorseGuard

Just did a quick google search,  Polish Airforce has if google is correct 23 Mig 29s,  18 Su 22 , not huge numbers, not sure if that would make a real difference in air power? Not sure who else in that area has any aircraft to do this sort of trade deal.  Just guessing the Ukraine air force has more weapons to arm these planes with?  Where would they get spare missiles etc?


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> Given Russia is now blocking exports to fuel its war machine, conflict may be the only choice to keep the economy going. If Russia uses any CRBN in Ukraine, I suspect gloves will come off.


I can't help thinking over the last few days that we are in that time period between 23 July, 1914 when the Austrians deliver their ultimatum to the Serbs and 4 August when GB declares war on Germany. 

Everyday another event occurs that we wouldn't think would be crossed - directly sanctioning the Russian Central Bank - VISA/Mastercard cutting ties with Russia - US cutting off all Russian Oil/Gas/Coal imports - Russia cutting exports of key raw materials - Poland supplying indirectly fighter planes to Ukraine - what is next?


----------



## KevinB

FormerHorseGuard said:


> Just did a quick google search,  Polish Airforce has if google is correct 23 Mig 29s,  18 Su 22 , not huge numbers, not sure if that would make a real difference in air power? Not sure who else in that area has any aircraft to do this sort of trade deal.  Just guessing the Ukraine air force has more weapons to arm these planes with?  Where would they get spare missiles etc?


Russia is only sortieing Aircraft in group of 4, of similar types, and no greater than 2 each if different types.
   They appear to lack ability to fly in combat in numbers greater than that.  

I suspect the Russians couldn't do anything to the UKR craft coming back to Ukraine.

Romania has MIG's and SU's as do at least two other former WP nations.

Get on the F-35 bus...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> Everyday another event occurs that we wouldn't think would be crossed - directly sanctioning the Russian Central Bank - VISA/Mastercard cutting ties with Russia - US cutting off all Russian Oil/Gas/Coal imports - Russia cutting exports of key raw materials - Poland supplying indirectly fighter planes to Ukraine ...


... Switzerland taking a side and freezing money ....

And in case it hasn't already been shared, bringing the U.N. troops back ....








						Zelensky recalls Ukrainian personnel from peacekeeping forces
					

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree on the withdrawal of Ukrainian contingents that take part in international peacekeeping operations.




					en.interfax.com.ua


----------



## Fishbone Jones

Altair said:


> The only argument against the carbon tax is that the federal one gives rebates but the provincial ones dont have to.
> 
> The federal carbon tax is vastly superior to the provincial ones.


Both are theft. Period. The money goes into general coffers and is used for everything but climate research/ mitigation. It's just another tax arbitrarily presented and enforced by the fed, for the fed. The billions already laundered through this scam went all over the world, and not one single degree of temperature, not one single pound of CO2 has seen any effect of it. Without petroleum, we're back in caves sitting around wood fires. Most every item available today is there because of petroleum in one way or another. Smelting metal is done with electricity derived from LNG to make auto components. Then plastics are used, made with petroleum, to fill that metal skin with gadgets. Petroleum is used in many aspects of lithium battery production. If the chemicals are not being dug out of the ground by kids and their bare hands, petroleum driven machines mine it and transport it. Anyone thinking petroleum is going away in our lifetimes is on drugs.


----------



## Good2Golf

Fishbone Jones said:


> Both are theft. Period. The money goes into general coffers and is used for everything but climate research/ mitigation. It's just another tax arbitrarily presented and enforced by the fed, for the fed. The billions already laundered through this scam went all over the world, and not one single degree of temperature, not one single pound of CO2 has seen any effect of it. Without petroleum, we're back in caves sitting around wood fires. Most every item available today is there because of petroleum in one way or another. Smelting metal is done with electricity derived from LNG to make auto components. Then plastics are used, made with petroleum, to fill that metal skin with gadgets. Petroleum is used in many aspects of lithium battery production. If the chemicals are not being dug out of the ground by kids and their bare hands, petroleum driven machines mine it and transport it. Anyone thinking petroleum is going away in our lifetimes is on drugs.


Like how all those road taxes go 100% to road upkeep and development.


----------



## Altair

Fishbone Jones said:


> Both are theft. Period. The money goes into general coffers and is used for everything but climate research/ mitigation. It's just another tax arbitrarily presented and enforced by the fed, for the fed. The billions already laundered through this scam went all over the world, and not one single degree of temperature, not one single pound of CO2 has seen any effect of it. Without petroleum, we're back in caves sitting around wood fires. Most every item available today is there because of petroleum in one way or another. Smelting metal is done with electricity derived from LNG to make auto components. Then plastics are used, made with petroleum, to fill that metal skin with gadgets. Petroleum is used in many aspects of lithium battery production. If the chemicals are not being dug out of the ground by kids and their bare hands, petroleum driven machines mine it and transport it. Anyone thinking petroleum is going away in our lifetimes is on drugs.


Nice that the situation in Ukraine is so incredibly serious to you that you feel the need to talk about the Canadian Carbon tax. 

Citizens of Ukraine, what is your opinion on the Canadian federal and provincial carbon taxes?


Slava Ukraini


----------



## OldSolduer

Altair said:


> Nice that the situation in Ukraine is so incredibly serious to you that you feel the need to talk about the Canadian Carbon tax.
> 
> Citizens of Ukraine, what is your opinion on the Canadian federal and provincial carbon taxes?
> 
> 
> Slava Ukraini


Hey why don't you focus - are you ADHD? or perhaps JT has you soooo mesemerized?

It is THEFT pure and simple.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501303217581346816


OldSolduer said:


> Hey why don't you focus - are you ADHD? or perhaps JT has you soooo mesemerized?
> 
> It is THEFT pure and simple.


I think his point was wrong thread...


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501303217581346816
> 
> I think his point was wrong thread...


The reality is that we still have a vertically challenged individual armed with nukes. It doesn’t matter really if they are not viewed with trepidation anymore. They can still kill us all 10x over.


----------



## FormerHorseGuard

KevinB said:


> Russia is only sortieing Aircraft in group of 4, of similar types, and no greater than 2 each if different types.
> They appear to lack ability to fly in combat in numbers greater than that.
> 
> I suspect the Russians couldn't do anything to the UKR craft coming back to Ukraine.
> 
> Romania has MIG's and SU's as do at least two other former WP nations.
> 
> Get on the F-35 bus...


just looked and if google is correct Romania has only Mig 21 , with maybe 23 to 28 in service  1950 vintage aircraft,  being replaced by the F 16 aircraft.  Museum pieces sorta sounds like the Canadian Air Force back in the day, till the 80s came along and we got the state of the art F 18, now a museum piece. 
Bulgaria has some Mig 29s , 
a lot of countries have retired or no frames in flight worthy conditions.


----------



## Altair

OldSolduer said:


> Hey why don't you focus - are you ADHD? or perhaps JT has you soooo mesemerized?
> 
> It is THEFT pure and simple.


Would it matter if I was?

The Carbon tax has been talked about for years and has threads about it if people want to talk about it. Again. 

How about we don't derail the Russia invading another country thread, ya? Ya.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Altair said:


> You must mean the Saab Gripen.


----------



## suffolkowner

Quirky said:


> I don’t expect any financial literacy from a government that doesn’t care about monetary policy.


monetary policy or fiscal policy?


----------



## KevinB

FormerHorseGuard said:


> just looked and if google is correct Romania has only Mig 21 , with maybe 23 to 28 in service  1950 vintage aircraft,  being replaced by the F 16 aircraft.  Museum pieces sorta sounds like the Canadian Air Force back in the day, till the 80s came along and we got the state of the art F 18, now a museum piece.
> Bulgaria has some Mig 29s ,
> a lot of countries have retired or no frames in flight worthy conditions.


Romania had 20 after the USSR breakup - mothballed (and potentially sold to other countries - or US Private entities) 
Germany had 24 they inherited from East Germany at unification, they where given to Poland (or traded).
Bulgaria has 15 active and 4 in Reserve.
Slovakia has 13 operational 
Czech's traded theirs to Poland 
US has 21 from Moldova 
Moldova has 6 currently recently overhauled in the Ukraine...

So low hanging fruit shows about 40 more available.


----------



## Altair

Eye In The Sky said:


>


----------



## Blackadder1916

Depending on how long a "state of special military operation" lasts some of the Ruskies may have to do community service.









						Russian prisoners of war to work to restore economy of Ukraine - MIA
					

Russian prisoners in Ukraine will be treated in accordance with the norms of international humanitarian law, subsequently they will work to restore the Ukrainian economy, First Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Yevhen Enin said.




					en.interfax.com.ua
				





> Russian prisoners of war to work to restore economy of Ukraine - MIA​
> Russian prisoners in Ukraine will be treated in accordance with the norms of international humanitarian law, subsequently they will work to restore the Ukrainian economy, First Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Yevhen Enin said.
> 
> According to the press service of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, during the All-Ukrainian telethon, Enin said that Ukraine would strictly comply with all norms of international humanitarian law.
> 
> "And this is what distinguishes us from the Russian aggressor shooting at the civilian population, who inflicts missile and bomb attacks on houses. Let alone treatment of our servicemen," he said.
> 
> The first deputy head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs noted that Ukraine will use all the opportunities provided by the Geneva Conventions on prisoners of war, "all these people will work to restore the economy of Ukraine."


----------



## Mills Bomb

‘Freedom convoy’ forums find new focus: disinformation about Russia-Ukraine war - National | Globalnews.ca
					

Some pro-convoy forums have shifted from posting misinformation about COVID-19 to posting misinformation about the Russia-Ukraine war.




					globalnews.ca
				




What a "coincidence". Another article that agrees with the views of some members of this forum (Including mine) that the trucker protest and the situation in Russia were probably related at least to some extent. Well, at least it's starting to be discussed a bit more in the news.

_Sigh_ I've already encountered several people in daily life who believe this crap, they make dogmatic claims about the conflict and claim to be experts because they read it online, but if you asked them their opinion on how the Arab Spring or Rose Revolution ended and what they believe Russia's involvement in those conflicts was, they just look at you with a blank face and keep insisting they are the new geniuses of Russian foreign policy. Very pathetic. Another chapter in the world of misinformation brought to us by Q'ANON and the Russian troll farm.


----------



## Jarnhamar

KevinB said:


> Since I can not longer count the number of War crimes RF has penetrated - lets just add another.
> Lets use our cannon to mow down a random civilian car and it's occupants.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501162662369103872


What a terrible waste of life.

The more this happens the less Ukraine citizens will be inclined to give Russian soldiers food, water and a call home to mom. I wouldn't be surprised to see them turn violent.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501302732547932161
While it looks like the Russians are slowing down, Ukraine seems to be not as keen to counter attack in key areas. As a result this war may drag out even longer as major cities get no relief from seige.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501302732547932161
> While it looks like the Russians are slowing down, Ukraine seems to be not as keen to counter attack in key areas. As a result this war may drag out even longer as major cities get no relief from seige.


I suspect the UA is not wanting to commit to anything signficant until Russia pushes significantly into Kyiv - if they can destroy/neutralize the majority of RF units in Northern area, they can then free up a lot of their forces in the East to push south.


----------



## Dana381

Czech_pivo said:


> So, how do these planes fly from the Ramstein to Ukraine?  I'm certain that the Russians will be watching the flight path of these planes into Ukraine very carefully and then looking to pummel that location/locations with everything that they have.
> 
> Will these planes be armed when they leave Germany on their way back to Ukraine?  I'm assuming that they would need to be in case waiting Russians MIGs were ready to pounce once they crossed back into Ukraine.  Did Poland also include weapons stock with the planes?
> 
> There are so many variables here.



I am certainly not in the know about these things but I imagine the Poland stock of weapons for their Russian jets will be useless to them if they give away all their Russian jets. I don't imagine their Russian missiles will work on their American jets. I would assume they will include them in the deal.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> I suspect the UA is not wanting to commit to anything signficant until Russia pushes significantly into Kyiv - if they can destroy/neutralize the majority of RF units in Northern area, they can then free up a lot of their forces in the East to push south.


They may be dragging the Russians further into the city to cut off the tail completely. The UA has been conducting a turkey shoot on logistics and airmobility; might be easier to prey on the back end and wait for the beans and bullets to run out, rather than go tank to tank.

The Russians are doing a good enough job at that as it is 😉


----------



## KevinB

rmc_wannabe said:


> They may be dragging the Russians further into the city to cut off the tail completely. The UA has been conducting a turkey shoot on logistics and airmobility; might be easier to prey on the back end and wait for the beans and bullets to run out, rather than go tank to tank.
> 
> The Russians are doing a good enough job at that as it is 😉


The other aspect is the weather and terrain aren't going to magically work for the UA Armored Brigades either.
   Ground drying out for good tank country is a few months out...


----------



## suffolkowner

Good2Golf said:


> Like how all those road taxes go 100% to road upkeep and development.
> 
> View attachment 69320


you used to pay directly to the ministry responsible


----------



## Colin Parkinson




----------



## Czech_pivo

Dana381 said:


> I am certainly not in the know about these things but I imagine the Poland stock of weapons for their Russian jets will be useless to them if they give away all their Russian jets. I don't imagine their Russian missiles will work on their American jets. I would assume they will include them in the deal.


The Pentagon has pretty much scrapped the Polish MIGs to Ukraine.

Someone is realizing how the hell to get them the planes to Ukraine. I had a feeling this would happen.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> The Pentagon has pretty much scrapped the Polish MIGs to Ukraine.
> 
> Someone is realizing how the hell do them get the planes to Ukraine. I had a feeling this would happen.


Have UKR pilots fly them - I mean it really isn't that hard.
  It's just several folks are missing a spine...


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Have UKR pilots fly them - I mean it really isn't that hard.
> It's just several folks are missing a spine...


I’d think they’d have to refuel before crossing into Ukraine.  

I agree about the lack of spine though.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Unconfirmed but interesting if true:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501300502621007876


----------



## Altair

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Unconfirmed but interesting if true:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501300502621007876


The Beaver Battalion?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Unconfirmed but interesting if true:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501300502621007876



How long do you think it will take before they form a hockey team?


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Altair said:


> The Beaver Battalion?


Maple Flavoured Borsch Battalion!


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

daftandbarmy said:


> How long do you think it will take before they form a hockey team?


They didn't play hockey, otherwise they would still be collecting a Ph$t CAF paycheque LOL


----------



## Altair

Humphrey Bogart said:


> They didn't play hockey, otherwise they would still be collecting a Ph$t CAF paycheque LOL


Not all of them are soldiers I would be guessing.


----------



## KevinB

daftandbarmy said:


> How long do you think it will take before they form a hockey team?


Less than it takes them to make a few HQ's


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Altair said:


> Not all of them are soldiers I would be guessing.


Not saying I know a couple but I may 😉

Most would have at least prior service.


----------



## TacticalTea

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Unconfirmed but interesting if true:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501300502621007876


Good to know!


----------



## daftandbarmy

Altair said:


> Not all of them are soldiers I would be guessing.



This guy says they're only taking soldiers with previous experience in the front line units. Others are helping out elsewhere...

'They desperately need people': The Canadians heading to Ukraine to help in the fight against Russia​A number of Canadians who were thinking of going overseas to fight said they have struggled to get information about what they need to do, where to go and how to sign up

Hrytsiuk arrived in Berlin on March 3, having flown from Toronto, then travelled by train to Warsaw, then on to Lviv, in Ukraine. There, he’d hoped to join a regiment to fight, but said he found thousands of men in the queue to take up arms against the Russian invaders.

“They only accept people with previous military experience, so, unfortunately, I don’t qualify,” he said.

Instead, he’s helping with logistics for fleeing refugees. And, alongside his grandfather, who lives in Lviv — Hrytsiuk’s a dual citizen — he’s been packing sandbags to send around Ukraine.









						'They desperately need people': The Canadians heading to Ukraine to help in the fight against Russia
					

A number of Canadians who were thinking of going overseas to fight said they have struggled to get information about what they need to do, where to go and how…




					nationalpost.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

daftandbarmy said:


> How long do you think it will take before they form a hockey team?


... with 1/3 of them on excused duty because of tournaments?


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

daftandbarmy said:


> This guy says they're only taking soldiers with previous experience in the front line units. Others are helping out elsewhere...
> 
> 'They desperately need people': The Canadians heading to Ukraine to help in the fight against Russia​A number of Canadians who were thinking of going overseas to fight said they have struggled to get information about what they need to do, where to go and how to sign up
> 
> Hrytsiuk arrived in Berlin on March 3, having flown from Toronto, then travelled by train to Warsaw, then on to Lviv, in Ukraine. There, he’d hoped to join a regiment to fight, but said he found thousands of men in the queue to take up arms against the Russian invaders.
> 
> “They only accept people with previous military experience, so, unfortunately, I don’t qualify,” he said.
> 
> Instead, he’s helping with logistics for fleeing refugees. And, alongside his grandfather, who lives in Lviv — Hrytsiuk’s a dual citizen — he’s been packing sandbags to send around Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 'They desperately need people': The Canadians heading to Ukraine to help in the fight against Russia
> 
> 
> A number of Canadians who were thinking of going overseas to fight said they have struggled to get information about what they need to do, where to go and how…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nationalpost.com


At a minimum they probably want someone who:

A.  Knows how to use a variety of weapons with minimal training
B.  Has some sort of general infantry training
C.  Is able bodied, can dig a decent shell scrape and isn't going to become a huge liability out there.


----------



## TacticalTea

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501336445729968129
What the hell is going on with these jets?

I can't follow this story anymore...


----------



## OceanBonfire

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501257381635715074


----------



## Weinie

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Maple Flavoured Borsch Battalion!


Eh Company


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> At a minimum they probably want someone who:
> 
> A.  Knows how to use a variety of weapons with minimal training
> B.  Has some sort of general infantry training
> C.  Is able bodied, can dig a decent shell scrape and isn't going to become a huge liability out there.


Based on a few guys I know who went over - they are able to be fairly picky now, there is a legitimately more former NATO SOF people in the Ukraine than some countries have soldiers in their Military.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

TacticalTea said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501336445729968129
> What the hell is going on with these jets?
> 
> I can't follow this story anymore...


It's a big PR stunt


----------



## KevinB

TacticalTea said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501336445729968129
> What the hell is going on with these jets?
> 
> I can't follow this story anymore...


No one wants to take responsibility for pissing on Vlad directly -- so it's Mig Hot Potato


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

KevinB said:


> Based on a few guys I know who went over - they are able to be fairly picky now, there is a legitimately more former NATO SOF people in the Ukraine than some countries have soldiers in their Military.


This doesn't surprise me in the least.  The couple I know who went were "bored" after releasing from the CAF.  I guess incoming fire is a good way to cure boredom.


----------



## HiTechComms

Bit Concerning.  WTF. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501313109520175104


----------



## MilEME09

Another one bites the dust

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501358744692834304


----------



## MilEME09

HiTechComms said:


> Bit Concerning.  WTF.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501313109520175104


Bio research and bio weapons are two completely different things tho


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> Bio research and bio weapons are two completely different things tho


Not for Russian propaganda purposes.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> At a minimum they probably want someone who:
> 
> A.  Knows how to use a variety of weapons with minimal training
> B.  Has some sort of general infantry training
> C.  Is able bodied, can dig a decent shell scrape and isn't going to become a huge liability out there.



Whew, good thing you didn't mention 'battle fitness', or anything unfair and exclusionary like that, otherwise it would be hard to find qualified personnel back here in the land of the Big PX


----------



## suffolkowner

*Russian strength of force before start of war/losses*

250,000 troops

986 total tanks / 151 tanks lost (Oryx)*- 15.3% */ via UKR 303- *30.7%*

2791 total AFV's/ 289 AFV lost (Oryx)*- 10.4% */ via UKR 1036- *37.1%*

623 self-propelled artillery over 120mm/ 70 artillery lost (Oryx)- *11.2% 

Ukraines strength of force before state of war/losses*

200,000 troops

1480 total tanks/ 275 tanks lost (Oryx)- *18.6%*

2500 total AFV's/ 99 AFV lost (Oryx)- *4%*

over 700 self-propelled artillery over 120mm/ 20 artillery lost (Oryx)- *2.9%*

Oryx's numbers are probably low and Ukrainian numbers might be exaggerated but if the Ukrainian numbers are even close to true the Russians have suffered devastating losses


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

daftandbarmy said:


> Whew, good thing you didn't mention 'battle fitness', or anything unfair and exclusionary like that, otherwise it would be hard to find qualified personnel back here in the land of the Big PX


If our Tankers are too fit, they'll abandon their armour like the Russians do.  Can't abandon the Armour if you can't walk 😁

#deathbeforedismount


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Humphrey Bogart said:


> #deathbeforedismount



Shape and speed seems accurate  #HeavyMetalWarriors   😁


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

daftandbarmy said:


> Whew, good thing you didn't mention 'battle fitness', or anything unfair and exclusionary like that, otherwise it would be hard to find qualified personnel back here in the land of the Big PX


Unrelated note, I remember on an exercise once working with an Armoured Recce Troop, the troop commander proudly announced "if you need us to dismount and walk somewhere as well, we are completely capable of doing that NO PROBLEM"

Me: "points at forested hill 1000m from vehicle hide for possible dismounted OP position."

Troop Commander: "that's way too far"

🤣


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> *Russian strength of force before start of war/losses*
> 
> 250,000 troops
> 
> 986 total tanks / 151 tanks lost (Oryx)*- 15.3% */ via UKR 303- *30.7%*
> 
> 2791 total AFV's/ 289 AFV lost (Oryx)*- 10.4% */ via UKR 1036- *37.1%*
> 
> 623 self-propelled artillery over 120mm/ 70 artillery lost (Oryx)- *11.2%
> 
> Ukraines strength of force before state of war/losses*
> 
> 200,000 troops
> 
> 1480 total tanks/ 275 tanks lost (Oryx)- *18.6%*
> 
> 2500 total AFV's/ 99 AFV lost (Oryx)- *4%*
> 
> over 700 self-propelled artillery over 120mm/ 20 artillery lost (Oryx)- *2.9%*
> 
> Oryx's numbers are probably low and Ukrainian numbers might be exaggerated but if the Ukrainian numbers are even close to true the Russians have suffered devastating losses


Not to mention the west is trying to confirm if that Russian frigate sank, that would be embarrassing for Russia, and a major loss


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> Not to mention the west is trying to confirm if that Russian frigate sank, that would be embarrassing for Russia, and a major loss


The Ukrainians claim 40 fighter jets and 80 helicopters which would be brutal for the Russians but Oryx has only confirmed 11 and 11


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Based on a few guys I know who went over - they are able to be fairly picky now, there is a legitimately more former NATO SOF people in the Ukraine than some countries have soldiers in their Military.


The vatican is a country, you may need to narrow that down some.


----------



## MilEME09

Russia is getting interesting in their attempts to protect against javelins.


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501344494184185860
Limited no fly zone?

This may get interesting.


----------



## Good2Golf

Pretty sure a shaped hyper-sonic charge would mind spending a few extra milliseconds swooshing through some sand bags…


----------



## Prairie canuck

Curious, again, If you could get them in there, would a shore based Harpoon battery or 2 be feasible in around Odessa?


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501329928071127046
Of course Saudi Arabia, of course.


----------



## MilEME09

Prairie canuck said:


> Curious, again, If you could get them in there, would a shore based Harpoon battery or 2 be feasible in around Odessa?


Problem is Ukraine wouldn't know how to operate them effectively


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501329928071127046
> Of course Saudi Arabia, of course.


OPEC+ holding strong


----------



## Altair

Humphrey Bogart said:


> OPEC+ holding strong


Lets not kid ourselves, they are probably loving these prices.

If Alberta can make its way back to balance, and the Canadian federal government suddenly find itself with 5-7 billion more annually in oil royalties, OPEC will be rolling in the cash.


----------



## GR66

suffolkowner said:


> *Russian strength of force before start of war/losses*
> 
> 250,000 troops
> 
> 986 total tanks / 151 tanks lost (Oryx)*- 15.3% */ via UKR 303- *30.7%*
> 
> 2791 total AFV's/ 289 AFV lost (Oryx)*- 10.4% */ via UKR 1036- *37.1%*
> 
> 623 self-propelled artillery over 120mm/ 70 artillery lost (Oryx)- *11.2%
> 
> Ukraines strength of force before state of war/losses*
> 
> 200,000 troops
> 
> 1480 total tanks/ 275 tanks lost (Oryx)- *18.6%*
> 
> 2500 total AFV's/ 99 AFV lost (Oryx)- *4%*
> 
> over 700 self-propelled artillery over 120mm/ 20 artillery lost (Oryx)- *2.9%*
> 
> Oryx's numbers are probably low and Ukrainian numbers might be exaggerated but if the Ukrainian numbers are even close to true the Russians have suffered devastating losses


The Oryx article you're quoting for your numbers is dated Feb 24th.  Pretty sure the numbers are up significantly in the last 12 days.


----------



## Quirky

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501344494184185860
> Limited no fly zone?
> 
> This may get interesting.


Good way to test Putin and call his bluff.


----------



## Good2Golf

Altair said:


> Lets not kid ourselves, they are probably loving these prices.
> 
> If Alberta can make its way back to balance, and the Canadian federal government suddenly find itself with 5-7 billion more annually in oil royalties, OPEC will be rolling in the cash.


If Trudeau is finding creative ways not to commit to another Penny for Defence, what makes anyone think that he, Freeland and Guilbault won’t keep the NEP2 knife to Alberta and Saskatchewan’s necks with the justification of Net-Zero 2050?


----------



## Altair

Good2Golf said:


> If Trudeau is finding creative ways not to commit to another Penny for Defence, what makes anyone think that he, Freeland and Guilbault won’t keep the NEP2 knife to Alberta and Saskatchewan’s necks with the justification of Net-Zero 2050?











						Liberal Minority Government 2021 - ????
					

Yet they're still here....  Not everyone is.




					army.ca


----------



## RangerRay

MilEME09 said:


> Russia is getting interesting in their attempts to protect against javelins.
> View attachment 69326


WTF is that?  Looks like a bunch of bedsheets!


----------



## MilEME09

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501344494184185860
> Limited no fly zone?
> 
> This may get interesting.


A) starts WW3

B) Baits Russia into doing something stupid to try and end this before a NFZ can be set up

C) ????


----------



## Eye In The Sky

C)  makes Russia pause and reconsider some of their actions


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501381065851691016
Well shit, that's not suspicious


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> A) starts WW3
> 
> B) Baits Russia into doing something stupid to try and end this before a NFZ can be set up
> 
> C) ????


Russia whines and moans and stays out of western Ukraine.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Whoa....


----------



## suffolkowner

GR66 said:


> The Oryx article you're quoting for your numbers is dated Feb 24th.  Pretty sure the numbers are up significantly in the last 12 days.


they update constantly thats just when it was first published. its the time it takes to verify and geolocate to their comfort level


----------



## suffolkowner

So late in the game to try and shut it down and so easy to have done so before it began. Hard to believe that no one that matters couldn't see this coming makes my tinfoil hat think it was orchestrated to bleed Russia dry


----------



## Furniture

suffolkowner said:


> So late in the game to try and shut it down and so easy to have done so before it began. Hard to believe that no one that matters couldn't see this coming makes my tinfoil hat think it was orchestrated to bleed Russia dry


I'm more convinced Russia thought they could pull it off quickly, and get away with it. Just like with Crimea, Georgia, etc.. The West has been weak in countering them for years, so they figured they could push a little more. I think Putin was genuinely shocked by the international sanctions, and the resistance the Ukrainians are offering.


----------



## armrdsoul77

Apparently Putin is becoming increasingly reclusive....


----------



## Jarnhamar

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501329928071127046
> Of course Saudi Arabia, of course.


Biden doesn't even know what country Russia invaded.


----------



## suffolkowner

Good2Golf said:


> Pretty sure a shaped hyper-sonic charge would mind spending a few extra milliseconds swooshing through some sand bags…





MilEME09 said:


> Russia is getting interesting in their attempts to protect against javelins.
> View attachment 69326


as always i am interested in thoughts on this article









						Russian turret cages
					

A quick note on the curious Russian tank roof mounted bar armour packages seen in Ukraine of late, purportedly there to primarily defeat Javelin ATGM attacks.




					www.tanknology.co.uk


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> No one wants to take responsibility for pissing on Vlad directly -- so it's Mig Hot Potato


A bit silly.

Vlad is already experiencing our sanctions as war.  Pretty much like any ancient city would after the local aqueduct was knocked down cutting off the water supply.

And Poland, does it think Vlad makes a distinction between a plane load of NLAMs and Javelins and a second hand Mig 29?


----------



## TacticalTea

Kirkhill said:


> And Poland, does it think Vlad makes a distinction between a plane load of NLAMs and Javelins and a second hand Mig 29?


I don't know, but manifestly the White House and Pentagon do... 

🤦‍♂️


----------



## Furniture

Kirkhill said:


> A bit silly.
> 
> Vlad is already experiencing our sanctions as war.  Pretty much like any ancient city would after the local aqueduct was knocked down cutting off the water supply.
> 
> And Poland, does it think Vlad makes a distinction between a plane load of NLAMs and Javelins and a second hand Mig 29?


I suspect it's more a case of wanting to appear less confrontational for domestic audiences. 

No Western leader wants to be blamed for kicking off WWIII, so they provide as much war materiel as they can without going "too far".


----------



## armrdsoul77

No jets 
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/poland-mig-29-fighter-jets-u-s-ukraine-1.6377889


----------



## Zipperhead99

As suspected, even if Russia conquers Ukraine, the Ukrainians will likely keep fighting as an insurgency









						How the US and Europe helped Ukraine prep for insurgency
					

Ukraine is one of several countries in Eastern Europe and Scandinavia that have implemented portions of the Resistance Operating Concept into their national defense plans.




					www.armytimes.com


----------



## Zipperhead99

Russia facing more internal problems: the longer this drags out, the worse it will get









						Ukrainian War Unsettles Russian Regions and Non-Russian Republics - Jamestown
					

Moscow has been extremely chary about reporting combat losses in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine, electing instead to make the heads of the federal subjects responsible for doing so at the local level—lest it become immediately obvious to all Russians just...




					jamestown.org


----------



## TacticalTea

Zipperhead99 said:


> Russia facing more internal problems: the longer this drags out, the worse it will get
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian War Unsettles Russian Regions and Non-Russian Republics - Jamestown
> 
> 
> Moscow has been extremely chary about reporting combat losses in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine, electing instead to make the heads of the federal subjects responsible for doing so at the local level—lest it become immediately obvious to all Russians just...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> jamestown.org


It is wise to partition an empire from time to time to remind the others not to overextend their borders.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501263561938538503
Well now...those are some big missiles


----------



## Zipperhead99

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501263561938538503
> Well now...those are some big missiles


Yup, try and soften up Kiev before sending forces in.  Unfortunately it will result in more civilian casualties.  But, if this report is accurate and Russia is moving SSMs into range, it likely means that they soon be making their push into Kiev.  All that being said, if these babies are launched from Belarus, it will be time to bring some more sanctions on Putin's puppet!


----------



## Zipperhead99

Looks like a bunch more big businesses are pulling out of Russia, including McDonald's....no more Royale with Cheese for them!



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/mcdonalds-pepsi-boycott-russia-1.6376953


----------



## Furniture

Zipperhead99 said:


> Looks like a bunch more big businesses are pulling out of Russia, including McDonald's....no more Royale with Cheese for them!
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/mcdonalds-pepsi-boycott-russia-1.6376953


This gives me a brilliant idea, Poland should transfer their Migs to Pepsi, and let Pepsi give them to Ukraine. Then Pepsi can brag about having had both a navy and an air force, which could make for fun marketing.


----------



## TacticalTea

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501178540900982790
Ah, great, no way out according to this guy!


----------



## Zipperhead99

Furniture said:


> This gives me a brilliant idea, Poland should transfer their Migs to Pepsi, and let Pepsi give them to Ukraine. Then Pepsi can brag about having had both a navy and an air force, which could make for fun marketing.


Then Pepsi could finally live up to that commercial years ago where they offered a Harrier VTOL jet if you collected enough Pepsi points.  Instead of a Harrier, they could offer an used MiG-29!


----------



## Furniture

TacticalTea said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501178540900982790
> Ah, great, no way out according to this guy!


He's likely right... Short of Putin's backers turning on him there is pretty much nothing the West can do other than make things hard for him, and Russia in general.


----------



## McG

Thoughts on surviving the financial war on the home front:








						Read and Share Twitter Threads easily!
					

Thread Reader helps you read and share the best of Twitter Threads




					threadreaderapp.com


----------



## Altair

armrdsoul77 said:


> No jets
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/poland-mig-29-fighter-jets-u-s-ukraine-1.6377889




I love all of those who said poland would jump in to the Ukraine war but somehow they cannot even give away THEIR OWN PLANES without the go ahead of Washington. 

Love it.


----------



## Weinie

daftandbarmy said:


> Whoa....
> 
> View attachment 69327


Too bad that they couldn't have waited a day in all three cases. Then they wouldn't have been fu&*ed.


----------



## kev994

Zipperhead99 said:


> Looks like a bunch more big businesses are pulling out of Russia, including McDonald's....no more Royale with Cheese for them!
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/mcdonalds-pepsi-boycott-russia-1.6376953


In protest? Or because the ruble is worthless anyway?


----------



## tomydoom

kev994 said:


> In protest? Or because the ruble is worthless anyway?


Not in protest, to save themselves from a massive PR fail in their primary markets, also the rouble is worthless.


----------



## KevinB

GR66 said:


> The Oryx article you're quoting for your numbers is dated Feb 24th.  Pretty sure the numbers are up significantly in the last 12 days.


Also doesn't count nearly 900,000 Ukrainian reservists that have been mobilized, and 30k (and rising) Western Volunteers.

It also doesn't count that somehow (cough Poland cough) Ukraine got another Armored Brigade worth of tanks and IFV's.


----------



## Remius

daftandbarmy said:


> .
> “They only accept people with previous military experience, so, unfortunately, I don’t qualify,” he said.





daftandbarmy said:


> 'They desperately need people': The Canadians heading to Ukraine to help in the fight against Russia
> 
> 
> A number of Canadians who were thinking of going overseas to fight said they have struggled to get information about what they need to do, where to go and how…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nationalpost.com


so they only want people with a military background.  Funny how some people made a stink here about people suggesting that.  It’s almost as if unqualified but well intentioned people might actually be liabilities on the battlefield.

Love it.


----------



## KevinB

Remius said:


> so they only want people with a military background.  Funny how some people made a stink here about people suggesting that.  It’s almost as if unqualified but well intentioned people might actually be liabilities on the battlefield.
> 
> Love it.


1) The UKR also needs and accepts volunteers for non direct combat roles.  
2) Former Mil go into the UA in applicable positions


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501438467103989762


----------



## Remius

KevinB said:


> 1) The UKR also needs and accepts volunteers for non direct combat roles.
> 2) Former Mil go into the UA in applicable positions


All of which makes perfect sense.

Glad to see they have that many volunteers.


----------



## KevinB

Sigh 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501530325985472512


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501480788864516099


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501527236205232129


----------



## Remius

Ottawa donation drive for Ukraine ending early due to overwhelming support
					

An Ottawa donation drive for supplies to aid the people of Ukraine is ending Wednesday following overwhelming support from the community.



					ottawa.ctvnews.ca


----------



## KevinB

Curious
Canada will send a consignment of highly specialized military equipment to Ukraine Defense cooperation was also discussed Details: https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/kanada-vidpravyt-ukrayini-vijskovu-tehniku/…

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501532266308251651


----------



## Czech_pivo

Furniture said:


> I suspect it's more a case of wanting to appear less confrontational for domestic audiences.
> 
> No Western leader wants to be blamed for kicking off WWIII, so they provide as much war materiel as they can without going "too far".


This was doomed to fail the moment the first idiot broke the news to his/her friend(s) who was outside the circle of trust and it just snowballed from there.  If these planes were quietly repainted in Ukrainian colours and quietly sent over to Ukraine it could have been done.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Sigh
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501530325985472512


Not to worry, brother - RUS state media says all is good 

Meanwhile:

*"Kiev’s use of foreign aerodromes seen as potentially dangerous scenario — Kremlin"* (RUS state media)
*UKR DefMin: hey, you wanna take it easy on telling people exactly who's giving us what weapons, please?* (UKR mil int, Google English translation)
*A bit of fire & brimstone from the head of UKR's Orthodox church* ... (Google English link):  _“… I understand that it makes no practical sense to turn to the Russian occupiers, so I just want to warn them that for shed blood, suffering and tears, for ruined lives, each of them will personally answer to God and receive the merciless punishment promised by the Lord in hell for his criminal ruthlessness … May the Almighty, as the Righteous Judge, look upon the suffering of the Ukrainian people and pass judgment on the ruthless murderers! May the wrath of God and the inevitable retribution promised to the murderers fall on them! …”_
*... and more tough talk from the Prez*:_  “… Russian soldiers! You still have a chance to survive … We will fight until we regain our land and take revenge for all our killed people. For the killed children. You can still be saved if you just leave. Do not believe your commanders when they tell you that you still have a chance in Ukraine. Nothing is waiting for you here. Except for captivity, except for death …”_
*UKR arms plant looking for trades to help during recent surge production* (UKR mil int, Google English)
*Rebel Media & The Post Millennial helps spread the word about bio-labs alleged by RUS to be bio-war labs backed by the US*
Late add:  here's the latest numbers shared by UKR mil int
**


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Curious
> Canada will send a consignment of highly specialized military equipment to Ukraine Defense cooperation was also discussed Details: https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/kanada-vidpravyt-ukrayini-vijskovu-tehniku/…
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501532266308251651


This and other UKR media mentions of this seem to be based on PMJT's Tweet here ...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501501150666924035... with nobody sharing more details on just how "highly specialized" said equipment is yet.

We'll see ...


----------



## Remius

The Bread Guy said:


> This and other UKR media mentions of this seem to be based on PMJT's Tweet here ...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501501150666924035... with nobody sharing more details on just how "highly specialized" said equipment is yet.
> 
> We'll see ...


Immersion heaters.  

Very specialized.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Remius said:


> Immersion heaters.
> 
> Very specialized.


Well, not just ANYONE can light 'em without losing some facial hair, am I right?


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Well, not just ANYONE can light 'em without losing some facial hair, am I right?


Dropped for the Chechens to remove them from the fight...


----------



## The Bread Guy

A reminder via RUS state media, in case you've forgotten ....


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> A reminder via RUS state media, in case you've forgotten ....
> View attachment 69332


How does the second paragraph make any sense:  ''that *we* are not responsible for the lives of *our citizens* who have opted to take part in illegal armed activities in Ukraine'.

What the heck does that even mean?


----------



## Remius

Czech_pivo said:


> How does the second paragraph make any sense:  ''that *we* are not responsible for the lives of *our citizens* who have opted to take part in illegal armed activities in Ukraine'.
> 
> What the heck does that even mean?


Maybe Russian nationals are joining Ukraine to fight?


----------



## ModlrMike

Remius said:


> Maybe Russian nationals are joining Ukraine to fight?


That would be a huge propaganda victory for UKR if true.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501543775700762633


----------



## Remius

ModlrMike said:


> That would be a huge propaganda victory for UKR if true.


If you know who ozzyman man is, he has two videos on you tube.  One where he talks to Ukraine folks.  It was quite popular so some Russians reached out and wanted to tell their story.  Very interesting to see the points of view and the commentary on older Russians believing the propaganda and younger Russians not believing a thing.  And it’s about who watched TV and who doesn’t.  Worth the watch.

I wouldn’t be surprised if some Russians did go to fight for ukraine.  I haven’t seen much on that yet but I’m sure it will make news if it does.


----------



## KevinB

There have been two stories on Russians who died frighting for UKR, and one on a Belarusian. 

Three isn’t a lot, but since they haven’t come out until their deaths in combat, one has to expect that more exist.


----------



## Remius

KevinB said:


> There have been two stories on Russians who died frighting for UKR, and one on a Belarusian.
> 
> Three isn’t a lot, but since they haven’t come out until their deaths in combat, one has to expect that more exist.


If they had to send a message about it, I’m sure it’s enough to cause them concern.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Remius said:


> Very interesting to see the points of view and the commentary on older Russians believing the propaganda and younger Russians not believing a thing.  And it’s about who watched TV and who doesn’t.  Worth the watch.


I was having a conversation about this with my father, who is in his early 70s. He luckily has become more computer literate and knows how to check sources and look out for political leanings. Most of his friends in the same age, don't.

He said its a cultural thing that most people his age tuned into the Nightly News and had the likes of Walter Cronkite stating facts about what was available at the time, especially during the Vietnam War. It was news you could trust... somewhat. Around the time CNN came out, world events became marketable and started receiving a political slant, much like newspapers. 

Most people who are under 40 were brought up to "not trust your first source" for this exact reason and to have multiple viewpoints in a world that was saturated by media. Now my teenage son can swipe through 49 different news articles on the same topic on Reddit, getting viewpoints from around the world in a matter of minutes. Most kids today will never trust blindly. 

So when you have RT or TASS stating that there are "Nationalist, drug-addled, Nazis" governing Ukraine and Older Russians eating it up; it doesn't surprise me any more than seeing older North Americans taking FOX News or Rebel Media as fact. "The reporter on the TV told me it was true, so it must be.."


----------



## KevinB

rmc_wannabe said:


> . Most kids today will never trust blindly.


I’m not 100% with that.  Just look at a lot of protest movements over the last 5-6 years.  
   Lots of mindless 20somethings parroting what they heard on the news without any thought to check the facts.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> I’m not 100% with that.  Just look at a lot of protest movements over the last 5-6 years.
> Lots of mindless 20somethings parroting what they heard on the news without any thought to check the facts.


 Most, not all. Human stupidity is infinite, if not absolute.

I will also point out that Algorithms are now a tool used by media companies to ensure the kind of "fact checking" I was taught to do in school is harder to do. It creates an echo chamber if you're not careful. That's why Media literacy and Intro to Law/Politics should be mandatory for every high-school student, especially before they reach voting age.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Remius said:


> If they had to send a message about it, I’m sure it’s enough to cause them concern.


Have a read of this article.  its pretty telling of the current state within Russia and the short/medium term results.  But this section here, near the end of the article, ties into the original statement by the Kremlin;

_"The majority of passengers were young men, she added. *Russian border guards checked passports three times, asking many people if they were going to Ukraine.* Other travellers have reported forced checks of their mobile phones and laptops."_







						Subscribe to read | Financial Times
					

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication




					www.ft.com


----------



## tomydoom

KevinB said:


> I’m not 100% with that.  Just look at a lot of protest movements over the last 5-6 years.
> Lots of mindless 20somethings parroting what they heard on the news without any thought to check the facts.


Not even the last 5-6 years, go back to the Anti G20 riots, Anti Globalisation protests of the 90s, Anti Everything protests of the 60s.  All were sustained by idealistic 20 somethings, that want to "oppose" the establishment and would buy into any drivel they were fed, to validate there rightousness.


----------



## Czech_pivo

And the body blow just keep coming:

1) 
Fitch says Russia debt default imminent​
2) 
Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, forecasts that Russia’s economy *will shrink by a massive 15% this year.*
We forecast Russia will see a massive GDP drop of -15% in 2022. Downside risk to that number is building fast as war escalates. Financial conditions (blue) tightened further from just a few days ago, leaving 2009 in the dust. Russia is on course for unprecedented impoverishment.













						Russian bond default ‘imminent’, as inflation jumps; markets surge as oil falls back – as it happened
					

UK announces new aviation sanctions against Russia and investigates plane at Farnborough




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501519621492510720
There is stuck,then there is Russian stuck.


----------



## kev994

Czech_pivo said:


> How does the second paragraph make any sense:  ''that *we* are not responsible for the lives of *our citizens* who have opted to take part in illegal armed activities in Ukraine'.
> 
> What the heck does that even mean?


I assume it’s a typo and supposed to say ‘your’


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501581105560006657


----------



## KevinB

Better get that next generation too Vlad

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501579520633102349


----------



## daftandbarmy

Czech_pivo said:


> And the body blow just keep coming:
> 
> 1)
> Fitch says Russia debt default imminent​
> 2)
> Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, forecasts that Russia’s economy *will shrink by a massive 15% this year.*
> We forecast Russia will see a massive GDP drop of -15% in 2022. Downside risk to that number is building fast as war escalates. Financial conditions (blue) tightened further from just a few days ago, leaving 2009 in the dust. Russia is on course for unprecedented impoverishment.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian bond default ‘imminent’, as inflation jumps; markets surge as oil falls back – as it happened
> 
> 
> UK announces new aviation sanctions against Russia and investigates plane at Farnborough
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com



The vultures are circling....

Russia may be about to stiff foreign bondholders over $20 billion of outstanding debt. What happens after that?​
On Wednesday, Fitch Ratings downgraded its rating of Russian government bonds to junk status and warned that a Russian “sovereign default is imminent.” The downgrade from Fitch follows similar decisions by ratings agencies S&P Global and Moody’s, both of which now see a Russian default as much more likely than before President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine. 

A Russian default—which may come as early as next month, according to Morgan Stanley—could wipe out billions in earnings owed to bondholders, as they strive to recover some value from suddenly near-worthless bonds. However, the broader fallout might be limited. Russian bonds "are not common holdings in most fixed-income portfolios", notes Morningstar's Mike Mulach. Russia's overall debt pile is also not that large.

A Russian default on sovereign debt could even present an opportunity for bargain-hunting "vulture" funds, hopeful they can trade junk bonds for a cut of Russia's frozen overseas assets—such as the country's hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign reserves that foreign governments have impounded as punishment for the war in Ukraine.










						What happens if Russia defaults on its foreign debt?
					

With sanctions cutting Russia off from global financial systems, Moscow might not pay it foreign bondholders.




					fortune.com


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501348956902604800Epic reply winner...
Dennis

@Veinless
·
15h

I have no idea how a farmer is going to haul that away but I look forward to watching it happen.


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> Better get that next generation too Vlad
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501579520633102349


It's literally war crime O'clock in Russua, and we sit back and take our time with everything. We are enabling Russia to do this by doing nothing to stop it.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501581399484157954


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501586993532309505


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> There have been two stories on Russians who died frighting for UKR, and one on a Belarusian ...


On media reaching out to English-language audiences, maybe.  I'm guessing folks are out there in their cubicles scouring local, back-yard Russian-language media for obits like the one for Gerasimov.


----------



## The Bread Guy

A tiny bit more detail on what CAN's offering up this round ....


> Canada is sending another $50 million in specialized equipment, including Canadian-made cameras for surveillance drones, to help Ukraine defend itself against the Russian invasion, Trudeau said Wednesday.
> 
> Trudeau was in Berlin for meetings with Chancellor Olaf Scholz largely about the response to Russia and ongoing needs to support Ukraine. But from Berlin he spoke by phone to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to inform him of the additional aid.
> 
> "We have obtained a number of specialized equipment, including cameras used in drones that a Canadian company makes that we will be able to start sending in the coming days towards Ukraine," Trudeau said during a news conference with Scholz ...


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> A tiny bit more detail on what CAN's offering up this round ....


I'm pretty sure, at this point we have reached the max of what NATO cab provide without getting involved, all the kit, and Intel in the world that NATO can muster is going to Ukraine, but nothing has happened yet that we can truly say has turned the tide of this war in ukraines favor.


----------



## Altair

Remius said:


> so they only want people with a military background.  Funny how some people made a stink here about people suggesting that.  It’s almost as if unqualified but well intentioned people might actually be liabilities on the battlefield.
> 
> Love it.


Non combat roles mate, they are still taking everyone.

Unlike Poland, who cannot even move their own planes into Ukraine, never mind troops.


----------



## The Bread Guy

When tractors are outlawed in occupied Ukraine, only outlaws will have tractors in occupied Ukraine ....

Some coming & going stuff ....

If the UKR Prosecutor General's office is to be believed, going rate for 18-60 year old men to sneak out of UKR is US$4K/person (Google English).
UKR border guard to Ukrainians trying to get to EU: "Passport, please ... Is this a new Russian passport, bud?" (UKR media)
UK DefMin: Any Brit troops heading over to fight in UKR will face a court martial on return (UK Independent, over the paywall)


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501589852185313281


----------



## KevinB

Maps: Tracking the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
					

Ukraine captured more territory in the last week than Russia did in the last five months.



					www.nytimes.com


----------



## KevinB

Congress finalizes a $13.6 billion aid package to Ukraine, doubling the White House’s initial request.
					

The emergency funding could be approved as early as Wednesday afternoon as part of a sprawling spending measure to fund the government through September.




					www.nytimes.com
				




Military aid: $6.5 billion​The bill would send $6.5 billion to the Pentagon, to cover the costs of deploying American troops to Eastern-flank allies and providing Ukrainian forces with intelligence support, as well as to backfill weapons the United States has already sent to the government in Kyiv. The Biden administration initially requested $4.8 billion in military aid.

Lawmakers in both parties have been eager to help arm the Ukrainian military, and that appetite only grew after Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, met with members of Congress last weekend and pleaded for additional jets and weapons. 

Mr. Biden earlier this month authorized a $350 million package of weapons that included Javelin antitank missiles and Stinger antiaircraft missiles as well as small arms and munitions, a shipment that represented the largest single authorized transfer of arms from U.S. military warehouses to another country. 

And the United States alone has deployed more than 15,000 troopsto Europe, while committing an additional 12,000 to NATO’s response force if necessary.

Humanitarian and economic aid: About $6.7 billion​The aid package includes money intended to help both Ukrainians still living in the country and those who have fled Russia’s brutal military onslaught. It devotes $1.4 billion to humanitarian support for the two million refugees who have left Ukraine. Another $2.65 billion would go to the United States Agency for International Development to provide emergency food assistance and health care to Ukrainians and other affected people in the region.

Funding to crack down on the Russian economy and oligarchs: About $120 million​The bill allocates nearly $120 million in funds to the Department of Justice and the Department of Treasury to prosecute those who violate new sanctions and export control measures imposed by the United States to try to squeeze the Russian economy, as well as to boost F.B.I. agents monitoring for Russian cyberattacks.


----------



## Weinie

KevinB said:


> Better get that next generation too Vlad
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501579520633102349


Perhaps Russian strategists have realized how much they erred, and are now conducting strikes like this to draw in the West. To this end, it doesn't look pretty.


----------



## KevinB

Weinie said:


> Perhaps Russian strategists have realized how much they erred, and are now conducting strikes like this to draw in the West. To this end, it doesn't look pretty.


I think Russia has correctly assessed that nearly every NATO leader didn't sign a for a spine.
 The fighter plane debacle shows that to be true, and IMHO allowed Russia to be emboldened to more atrocities.









						Pentagon says Poland’s fighter jet offer is not ‘tenable.’
					

The United States rejects a Polish proposal to provide older fighter jets to eventually use in Ukraine, in a rare note of discord between the NATO allies.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## MilEME09

Weinie said:


> Perhaps Russian strategists have realized how much they erred, and are now conducting strikes like this to draw in the West. To this end, it doesn't look pretty.


If we the west sit by as war crimes, and crimes against humanity are happening every day in a large scale. We are morally bankrupt and our leaders should resign.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501597067046756353

More on the attack on the Russian Naval Patrol Boat - and it's sinking 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501577874704379906


----------



## KevinB

BBC on the Maternity Hospital strike. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501599431577190403


----------



## The Bread Guy

Remember the UKR national bank collecting donations for the military?  At latest count (today), here's how much they've pulled in in CDN$ and who got what ....


On the foreign donations ....


> ... Money has been coming in from people and businesses in Ukraine and from all over the international community (including the U.S., the UK, Poland, Germany, Sweden, Finland, the Czech Republic, China, France, Canada, and many other countries).
> 
> That includes the equivalent of more than UAH 3 billion (CDN $128M) that has been remitted from abroad in foreign currencies (U.S. dollars, euros, GB pounds, Canadian dollars, Chinese renminbi, Japanese yen, Swiss francs, Polish zlotys, Australian dollars) ...


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501567325832724481
More violations of the Geneva convention


----------



## The Bread Guy

Bad guys' best guess (Donetsk rebel media) ....








						Ukrainian losses surpass 1,500 killed and wounded
					

Donetsk, Mar 9 – DAN. Since the beginning of the liberation operation in the DPR, the losses of the armed formations of Ukraine have amounted to more




					dan-news.info


----------



## GR66

KevinB said:


> I think Russia has correctly assessed that nearly every NATO leader didn't sign a for a spine.
> The fighter plane debacle shows that to be true, and IMHO allowed Russia to be emboldened to more atrocities.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Pentagon says Poland’s fighter jet offer is not ‘tenable.’
> 
> 
> The United States rejects a Polish proposal to provide older fighter jets to eventually use in Ukraine, in a rare note of discord between the NATO allies.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com


Perhaps Elon Musk could purchase the fighters from Poland and then donate them to Ukraine?


----------



## Quirky

KevinB said:


> I think Russia has correctly assessed that nearly every NATO leader didn't sign a for a spine.
> The fighter plane debacle shows that to be true, and IMHO allowed Russia to be emboldened to more atrocities.



Nearly taking out a nuclear plant, now a potential for a radiation leak at Chernobyl, bombing of hospitals and countless war crimes. I don't know what other justification the west needs to put a stop to this crap. The time for a no-fly zone has come and gone, we need to get involved beyond that. NATO keeps sitting on their hands and doing nothing but holding photo-ops and offering press releases. Spineless cowards.


----------



## MilEME09

GR66 said:


> Perhaps Elon Musk could purchase the fighters from Poland and then donate them to Ukraine?


Perhaps the west could go to the CQ and sign out a spine?


----------



## GR66

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501597067046756353
> 
> More on the attack on the Russian Naval Patrol Boat - and it's sinking
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501577874704379906


The video quality of the ship is crappy, but to my eyes it doesn't look much like a Project 22160 Patrol Ship.


----------



## KevinB

GR66 said:


> Perhaps Elon Musk could purchase the fighters from Poland and then donate them to Ukraine?


I suspect the issue is solely on where they are flown out of.   

If someone could pave a stretch of the Polish/UKR to allow for a cross border taxi way, and a short strip at either end, I think the Poles would be fine with it.  
    The issue is everyone seems to be worried about where they take off before heading to Ukraine.


----------



## Altair

Quirky said:


> Nearly taking out a nuclear plant, now a potential for a radiation leak at Chernobyl, bombing of hospitals and countless war crimes. I don't know what other justification the west needs to put a stop to this crap. The time for a no-fly zone has come and gone, we need to get involved beyond that. NATO keeps sitting on their hands and doing nothing but holding photo-ops and offering press releases. Spineless cowards.


Cowards all.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501621720695939078


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Russian Combat Engineers at work


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501489060627550214
Looks like the Russians have been using poorly maintained kit


----------



## The Bread Guy

Colin Parkinson said:


> Russian Combat Engineers at work


Allegedly at work, allegedly in Ukraine according to RUS MoD  Just like this humanitarian aid being handed out in Kharkiv




And when the Info-machine allows USSR flags on RUS vehicles to be shown in public, well ....


----------



## KevinB

More from DarthPutin

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501624880059633664  I love the fact that he trolls Russia so relentlessly.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> More from DarthPutin
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501624880059633664  I love the fact that he trolls Russia so relentlessly.


He IS good!

Ukraine, wanting to take back bits of Ukraine?


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> More from DarthPutin
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501624880059633664  I love the fact that he trolls Russia so relentlessly.


I love how commentators who speak Ukrainian are saying the documents don't even say what they say it says.


----------



## Fishbone Jones

rmc_wannabe said:


> So when you have RT or TASS stating that there are "Nationalist, drug-addled, Nazis" governing Ukraine and Older Russians eating it up; it doesn't surprise me any more than seeing older North Americans taking FOX News or Rebel Media as fact. "The reporter on the TV told me it was true, so it must be.."


it doesn't surprise me any more than seeing North Americans taking CNN, MSNBC, CBC, CBS, Global, CTV as fact. "The reporter on the TV told me it was true, so it must be.."


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Quirky said:


> Nearly taking out a nuclear plant, now a potential for a radiation leak at Chernobyl, bombing of hospitals and countless war crimes. I don't know what other justification the west needs to put a stop to this crap. The time for a no-fly zone has come and gone, we need to get involved beyond that. NATO keeps sitting on their hands and doing nothing but holding photo-ops and offering press releases. Spineless cowards.


The Russians are saying that the Ukrainians bombed the power lines and substation that provides power to Chernobyl and they will reconnect it to the Belarusian power grid.  The Ukrainians are saying the Russians sabotaged it.

False flag or not?  Who knows?


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> The Russians are saying that the Ukrainians bombed the power lines and substation that provides power to Chernobyl and they will reconnect it to the Belarusian power grid.  The Ukrainians are saying the Russians sabotaged it.
> 
> False flag or not?  Who knows?


Russia trying to look like the good guys,  hero complex


----------



## Fishbone Jones

Humphrey Bogart said:


> The Russians are saying that the Ukrainians bombed the power lines and substation that provides power to Chernobyl and they will reconnect it to the Belarusian power grid.  The Ukrainians are saying the Russians sabotaged it.
> 
> False flag or not?  Who knows?


Does it really matter? Isn't Chernobyl still a hot zone?


----------



## Remius

Fishbone Jones said:


> Does it really matter? Isn't Chernobyl still a hot zone?


The plant apparently still needs power to keep spent fuel cooled.


----------



## KevinB

Fishbone Jones said:


> Does it really matter? Isn't Chernobyl still a hot zone?


Relative term.
   You can spend some time there without any ill effects unless you actually try to enter the sealed Reactor #4 area. 

I wouldn’t want to make even an overnight campsite anywhere on the actual premises.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Fishbone Jones said:


> Does it really matter? Isn't Chernobyl still a hot zone?


No it absolutely does not matter.  Radiation doesn't give a shit about what your ideology is or what uniform you wear.  That's why I am not exactly happy about Ukraine becoming the World's global field of battle.

I'd rather we not become the real version of Fallout's Capital Wasteland.


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> No it absolutely does not matter.  Radiation doesn't give a shit about what your ideology is or what uniform you wear.  That's why I am not exactly happy about Ukraine becoming the World's global field of battle.
> 
> I'd rather we not become the real version of Fallout's Capital Wasteland.


Which causes me a lot of worry given the Russian drives that have been directed to the power plants.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

KevinB said:


> Which causes me a lot of worry given the Russian drives that have been directed to the power plants.


Also concerns me that the Ukrainians would be deciding to set up defensive positions around these facilities.

If only there were some sort of Neutral Power that could get both these sides to agree to let a neutral force garrison these facilities to ensure they aren't compromised.

Sounds like something UN peacekeepers were originally envisioned doing?

"You chaps can continue to fight it out if you want but leave these facilities out of it and remain outside the exclusion zone"

The Japanese SDF perhaps?


----------



## Czech_pivo

"I think Putin's finished - he'll either go quickly or it'll be maybe two or three years."
the Russian president has made a "massive strategic blunder".

"There is no recovery from this, there's no way back for him."
'the middle classes do not like him and the oligarchs are worried about him because he is now interfering with their ability to make money.'
"His fate will be Julius Caesar's, which won't be necessarily a physical assassination, but somebody will put the knife in politically," he says.

"When one person does, they'll all join in," he says.

"That's the fate that now awaits him," he says. "And only China can save him."









						Ukraine war: Lost equipment, casualties and communication failures: How the Russian military is faring in Ukraine
					

Security and defence analyst Michael Clarke tells Sky News why the Russian military appears to be struggling in Ukraine - and what Russian President Vladimir Putin's next moves could be.




					news.sky.com


----------



## Haggis

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Sounds like something *UN peacekeepers* were originally envisioned doing?


You spelled "hostages" wrong.


----------



## The Bread Guy

rmc_wannabe said:


> ... So when you have RT or TASS stating that there are "Nationalist, drug-addled, Nazis" governing Ukraine and Older Russians eating it up; it doesn't surprise me any more than seeing older North Americans taking FOX News or Rebel Media as fact ...





Fishbone Jones said:


> it doesn't surprise me any more than seeing North Americans taking CNN, MSNBC, CBC, CBS, Global, CTV as fact. "The reporter on the TV told me it was true, so it must be.."


Critical difference between these examples and Russia - in our part of the world, there's LOTS of other media out there to take in and triangulate with.  Russia?  Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe not so much, even before Western social media was shut down ....


----------



## lenaitch

rmc_wannabe said:


> Most, not all. Human stupidity is infinite, if not absolute.
> 
> I will also point out that Algorithms are now a tool used by media companies to ensure the kind of "fact checking" I was taught to do in school is harder to do. It creates an echo chamber if you're not careful. That's why Media literacy and Intro to Law/Politics should be mandatory for every high-school student, especially before they reach voting age.


Algorithms are used by all manner of sites, not just the so-called mainstream media.  I find that a large portion of the generations that claim to be 'tech-savvy', really aren't.  They might be all flying thumbs and fully on board with sharing pictures of their hot dog, but I see significant gaps in areas such as privacy, security and critical analysis of websites and the information they source.

Media (or perhaps better 'information') literacy and law/politics/civics in high school would certainly help, but when you consider the pressure from other interest areas; financial literacy, aboriginal history, STEM, and on and on, they may have to go to a Grade 15.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

MilEME09 said:


> If we the west sit by as war crimes, and crimes against humanity are happening every day in a large scale. We are morally bankrupt and our leaders should resign.



Unfortunately, this isn't the first "proxy battlefield" the West has monitored and picked a side to support, even in recent years.


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Also concerns me that the Ukrainians would be deciding to set up defensive positions around these facilities.
> 
> If only there were some sort of Neutral Power that could get both these sides to agree to let a neutral force garrison these facilities to ensure they aren't compromised.
> 
> Sounds like something UN peacekeepers were originally envisioned doing?
> 
> "You chaps can continue to fight it out if you want but leave these facilities out of it and remain outside the exclusion zone"
> 
> The Japanese SDF perhaps?


Well given they provide a lot of countries power - then end up being critical infrastructure.
  Especially after Russia went and seized Chernobyl at the outset - I think you can see why the UA would want them defended...


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501652541335035904


----------



## Eye In The Sky

GR66 said:


> The video quality of the ship is crappy, but to my eyes it doesn't look much like a Project 22160 Patrol Ship.



It doesn't look like "anything" to me;  I wouldn't make a call either way on this one.  "Prob burning vessel".


----------



## KevinB

Eye In The Sky said:


> It doesn't look like "anything" to me;  I wouldn't make a call either way on this one.  "Prob burning vessel".


I think we can guarantee something is burning - but that's about it.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501648910607130629Translation:
Yesterday, March 8, during the fighting in the Kharkiv region, junior sergeant Natalia Oksentyuk was killed by the enemy. She was a senior combat medic in the infantry unit of the 93rd OMBR. Natalia was born in 1997, she should have turned 25 in May. Eternal memory to you, girl!


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501661968507281414


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501663950689247244


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501619639847170053


----------



## OldSolduer

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501619639847170053


Twitter and FB sure have changed the face of war.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501590222903074816


----------



## KevinB

And resilience in the face of horror.








						About 2 million people have fled Ukraine. These women are going back.
					






					www.nytimes.com


----------



## suffolkowner

lenaitch said:


> Algorithms are used by all manner of sites, not just the so-called mainstream media.  I find that a large portion of the generations that claim to be 'tech-savvy', really aren't.  They might be all flying thumbs and fully on board with sharing pictures of their hot dog, but I see significant gaps in areas such as privacy, security and critical analysis of websites and the information they source.
> 
> Media (or perhaps better 'information') literacy and law/politics/civics in high school would certainly help, but when you consider the pressure from other interest areas; financial literacy, aboriginal history, STEM, and on and on, they may have to go to a Grade 15.


Just in highschool there are 4 years and 32 courses that can be taken if we cancel some of the basket weaving and other diversions in a failed attempt to prop up graduation numbers there would be a lot less issues


----------



## HumblePie

Umm...










__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501659692094963723


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501671829353738242


----------



## TacticalTea

lenaitch said:


> Algorithms are used by all manner of sites, not just the so-called mainstream media.  I find that a large portion of the generations that claim to be 'tech-savvy', really aren't.  They might be all flying thumbs and fully on board with sharing pictures of their hot dog, but I see significant gaps in areas such as privacy, security and critical analysis of websites and the information they source.
> 
> Media (or perhaps better 'information') literacy and law/politics/civics in high school would certainly help, but when you consider the pressure from other interest areas; financial literacy, aboriginal history, STEM, and on and on, they may have to go to a Grade 15.


I think the peak of ''IT-literacy'' was young Gen X, older millenials. Essentially, they grew up with the tech, instead of being born into it, or having grown up in and adapted to a world without Internet.

Those who came after are mostly just as you say... they can operate the tech real fine. They just are clueless as to exactly how it works.


----------



## Spencer100

TacticalTea said:


> I think the peak of ''IT-literacy'' was young Gen X, older millenials. Essentially, they grew up with the tech, instead of being born into it, or having grown up in and adapted to a world without Internet.
> 
> Those who came after are mostly just as you say... they can operate the tech real fine. They just are clueless as to exactly how it works.


I think you're right.  Now that I look it that really is the case.


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501661116484796420
"Poland will do what it wants"

lol.


----------



## KevinB

They Died by a Bridge in Ukraine. This Is Their Story.
					

Tetiana Perebyinis and her two children were killed trying to dash to safety, a moment captured by our photographer. Her husband describes their lives, and their final hours.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## suffolkowner

HumblePie said:


> Umm...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501659692094963723


look at all those nazis too bad the denazifying operation is happening in the wrong place


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501678670427172866


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501678670427172866


Canada has been sending gas masks for a reason. 

And it wont be a red line for the west. 

Not even....Poland.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> And it wont be a red line for the west.
> 
> Not even....Poland.


Sadly I think you are right.


----------



## MilEME09

Altair said:


> Canada has been sending gas masks for a reason.
> 
> And it wont be a red line for the west.
> 
> Not even....Poland.


I hope you are wrong, but probably not


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501658573557968909
Nothing to see here just annexing your country


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501674484197208064


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501654584992968712


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501658573557968909
> Nothing to see here just annexing your country


1)  +700K RUS passports were passed out in the original occupied territories, so why not?
2)  Wonder if some of those new-ish passports were what UKR's FBI was talking about here?


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501684332431384579


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501679291314188293


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501679291314188293


So the plan is to somehow encircle a city larger than Toronto with 100k troops without the ability to operate freely in the sky against a determined and well equipped defensive force while struggling to supply their own forces with food and fuel?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Altair said:


> So the plan is to somehow encircle a city larger than Toronto with 100k troops without the ability to operate freely in the sky against a determined and well equipped defensive force while struggling to supply their own forces with food and fuel?


To quote a former Ops O of mine :

"I didn't say it was a good plan...but it's the plan we're going with..."


----------



## KevinB

Silicon Valley tech worker was the Ukrainian mom lying dead on street in brutal photo that sparked outrage
					

A Silicon Valley employee and her children are the subjects of photos so devastating that...




					www.sfchronicle.com


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> So the plan is to somehow encircle a city larger than Toronto with 100k troops without the ability to operate freely in the sky against a determined and well equipped defensive force while struggling to supply their own forces with food and fuel?


Hence why I expect that the WMD threat the White House warned about today is a very very strong likelihood. 😬


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Hence why I expect that the WMD threat the White House warned about today is a very very strong likelihood. 😬


Not just from the White House now ....


> *Key takeaway: *The Kremlin has set informational conditions to blame Ukraine for a Russian-conducted or Russian-fabricated chemical or radiological false-flag attack against civilians as a pretext for further Russian escalation. The Kremlin is likely still evaluating this course of action but is building out the necessary conditions to justify broader violence against civilians. That risk must be addressed. The United States and NATO must “pre-bunk” such Kremlin efforts, destroy in advance Moscow’s efforts to create informational cover for escalation, and deter Russia’s potential use of a chemical or radiological weapon ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

And I thought Veep was a sitcom ....








						Kamala Harris heads to Poland amid Nato fighter jet rift
					

The chances of a deal to supply planes to Ukraine look very remote due to escalation fears.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Altair said:


> So the plan is to somehow encircle a city larger than Toronto with 100k troops without the ability to operate freely in the sky against a determined and well equipped defensive force while struggling to supply their own forces with food and fuel?


Don't underestimate your enemy.  That goes both ways.

There seems to be a tired line regularly trotted out that the Russians are a bunch of idiotic savages who can't do anything as well as we can.  Western hubris and exceptionalism is our biggest weakness in this fight

Russia has a sophisticated and professional armed forces establishment that is brutal but also cunning and adaptive. 

In war, the only things that matters is winning.  Do what needs to be done to win, that goes both ways.


----------



## OldSolduer

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Don't underestimate your enemy.  That goes both ways.
> 
> There seems to be a tired line regularly trotted out that the Russians are a bunch of idiotic savages who can't do anything as well as we can.  Western hubris and exceptionalism is our biggest weakness in this fight
> 
> Russia has a sophisticated and professional armed forces establishment that is brutal but also cunning and adaptive.
> 
> In war, the only things that matters is winning.  Do what needs to be done to win, that goes both ways.


I've read a bit of Russian history lately and yes they are a resilient resourceful lot. How else can you explain Stalingrad?


----------



## Altair

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Don't underestimate your enemy.  That goes both ways.


We gave Russia the benefit of the doubt, not only for the beginning of this invasion, but probably for the last decade. 

I think its fair to say that the west gave them too much credit. 

They do not own the skies over Ukraine, they cannot operate aircraft without significant losses, they cannot feed their soldiers, they cannot fuel their vehicles, they have not taken Kiev, they have not taken Kharkiv, they have not made gains in the east, they have made limited gains the north, and they are slowing down in the only place they have made gains, in the south. 

Its not about underestimating the enemy, its simply that the enemy hasn't been very good.


Humphrey Bogart said:


> There seems to be a tired line regularly trotted out that the Russians are a bunch of idiotic savages who can't do anything as well as we can.  Western hubris and exceptionalism is our biggest weakness in this fight


The Russian cannot fight against a well armed, determined enemy. That's just the reality of what we are seeing. 


Humphrey Bogart said:


> Russia has a sophisticated and professional armed forces establishment that is brutal but also cunning and adaptive.
> 
> In war, the only things that matters is winning.  Do what needs to be done to win, that goes both ways.


----------



## Altair

OldSolduer said:


> I've read a bit of Russian history lately and yes they are a resilient resourceful lot. How else can you explain Stalingrad?


hard lessons learned over 2 years. 

Does Putin have 2 years at this rate? I don't think Putin has 2 months to sort this out.


----------



## OldSolduer

Altair said:


> The Russian cannot fight against a well armed, determined enemy. That's just the reality of what we are seeing.


With enough artillery and rocket fire you can defeat anything or anyone. This is a learning curve for Russia. Don't expect them to keep on making the same mistakes.


----------



## Altair

OldSolduer said:


> With enough artillery and rocket fire you can defeat anything or anyone. This is a learning curve for Russia. Don't expect them to keep on making the same mistakes.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501664119258169346


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501678670427172866


And RUS state media's setting the stage .....


----------



## suffolkowner

fears of escalation are we still talking this nonsense. Tsar Poutine will go nuclear if he wants too a few Migs aren't going to influence that calculus.

I find it hard to believe that they couldn't use the jets. Sack the hell up. And get something in there to take out some Russian ships too


----------



## Altair

suffolkowner said:


> fears of escalation are we still talking this nonsense. Tsar Poutine will go nuclear if he wants too a few Migs aren't going to influence that calculus.
> 
> I find it hard to believe that they couldn't use the jets. Sack the hell up. And get something in there to take out some Russian ships too


The convoy is still sitting there too. A few jets could help with that. 

But nobody is going to do anything without the go ahead from Washington.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Altair said:


> We gave Russia the benefit of the doubt, not only for the beginning of this invasion, but probably for the last decade.
> 
> I think its fair to say that the west gave them too much credit.
> 
> They do not own the skies over Ukraine, they cannot operate aircraft without significant losses, they cannot feed their soldiers, they cannot fuel their vehicles, they have not taken Kiev, they have not taken Kharkiv, they have not made gains in the east, they have made limited gains the north, and they are slowing down in the only place they have made gains, in the south.
> 
> Its not about underestimating the enemy, its simply that the enemy hasn't been very good.
> 
> The Russian cannot fight against a well armed, determined enemy. That's just the reality of what we are seeing.


Your arrogance is astounding and provides a general explanation of why the West is in the current predicament it's in.  Then again, you're not a user I expect to have serious discussions about actual Military Affairs with 😉






Peter the Great Military Academy, it could be mistaken for West Point if you didn't know any better.  

It's certainly nicer than equivalent Canadian establishments.


----------



## Furniture

I wonder if some non-NATO countries could put together a "Flying Tridents" group kitted out with Gripens or another non-NATO aircraft, to help the Russians rediscover their love of being at their own hearth...


----------



## Furniture

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Your arrogance is astounding and provides a general explanation of why the West is in the current predicament it's in.  Then again, you're not a user I expect to have serious discussions about actual Military Affairs with 😉
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Peter the Great Military Academy, it could be mistaken for West Point if you didn't know any better.
> 
> It's certainly nicer than equivalent Canadian establishments.


While Russia may have improved, their performance so far has been less than inspiring. 

If even half of the reported losses are accurate, Russia has taken a beating that nobody predicted even three weeks ago.


----------



## Altair

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Your arrogance is astounding and provides a general explanation of why the West is in the current predicament it's in.  Then again, you're not a user I expect to have serious discussions about actual Military Affairs with 😉
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Peter the Great Military Academy, it could be mistaken for West Point if you didn't know any better.
> 
> It's certainly nicer than equivalent Canadian establishments.


So despite most experts thinking Ukraine would be crushed within a week, two weeks into this.


Russia still doesn't have control of the skies. 
Russian forces are going hungry.
Kiev still isn't encircled. 
Russian soldiers are abandoning vehicles.
Russian forces are losing vehicles to farmers
Russian forces haven't taken Kharkiv, a likely day one objective considering that it's 25 kms from the Russian border
The Ukrainian air force hasn't been destroyed yet.
The Russian convoy that was supposed to assist encircle Kiev hasn't moved in days and there are reports that they are out of food, fuel and have dead batteries. 
The Russians have not been using combined arms and the Ukranians are picking off individual tanks and ambushing soldiers without armor support.
Their airborne ops have been complete and utter failures without any form of support leaving them cut off and being destroyed by Ukrainian forces.
You can continue to believe in the myth of the powerful Russian military if you want. I think that myth has been busted.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Furniture said:


> While Russia may have improved, their performance so far has been less than inspiring.
> 
> If even half of the reported losses are accurate, Russia has taken a beating that nobody predicted even three weeks ago.


Ukraine has the second largest Army in Europe, they are equipped with modern weapon systems and have capable Military leadership with combat experience.

The mistake people are/were making is the assumption that they were going to rollover like some two-bit Arab dictatorship in a repeat of Gulf War 1 and Iraq 2003.  

Conditions/situation are not the same.


----------



## Altair

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Ukraine has the second largest Army in Europe, they are equipped with modern weapon systems and have capable Military leadership with combat experience.
> 
> The mistake people are/were making is the assumption that they were going to rollover like some two-bit Arab dictatorship in a repeat of Gulf War 1 and Iraq 2003.
> 
> Conditions/situation are not the same.


Yeah, Americans performed maintenance on their vehicles, and Russians did not.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Altair said:


> So despite most experts thinking Ukraine would be crushed within a week, two weeks into this.
> 
> 
> Russia still doesn't have control of the skies.
> Russian forces are going hungry.
> Kiev still isn't encircled.
> Russian soldiers are abandoning vehicles.
> Russian forces are losing vehicles to farmers
> Russian forces haven't taken Kharkiv, a likely day one objective considering that it's 25 kms from the Russian border
> The Ukrainian air force hasn't been destroyed yet.
> The Russian convoy that was supposed to assist encircle Kiev hasn't moved in days and there are reports that they are out of food, fuel and have dead batteries.
> The Russians have not been using combined arms and the Ukranians are picking off individual tanks and ambushing soldiers without armor support.
> Their airborne ops have been complete and utter failures without any form of support leaving them cut off and being destroyed by Ukrainian forces.
> You can continue to believe in the myth of the powerful Russian military if you want. I think that myth has been busted.


I too am capable of reading Twitter feeds, unfortunately the cybersphere isn't actually the real World 😉


----------



## Altair

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I too am capable of reading Twitter feeds, unfortunately the cybersphere isn't actually the real World 😉


Is there a world where Russia has control of the skies, Kiev is encircled, Russian soldiers are not abandoning vehicles, Kharkiv is taken, the Ukrainian air force is out of action, the Russian convoy is not stalled, the russians are using combined arms and Russian airborne ops have been successful?


----------



## suffolkowner

Altair said:


> So despite most experts thinking Ukraine would be crushed within a week, two weeks into this.
> 
> 
> Russia still doesn't have control of the skies.
> Russian forces are going hungry.
> Kiev still isn't encircled.
> Russian soldiers are abandoning vehicles.
> Russian forces are losing vehicles to farmers
> Russian forces haven't taken Kharkiv, a likely day one objective considering that it's 25 kms from the Russian border
> The Ukrainian air force hasn't been destroyed yet.
> The Russian convoy that was supposed to assist encircle Kiev hasn't moved in days and there are reports that they are out of food, fuel and have dead batteries.
> The Russians have not been using combined arms and the Ukranians are picking off individual tanks and ambushing soldiers without armor support.
> Their airborne ops have been complete and utter failures without any form of support leaving them cut off and being destroyed by Ukrainian forces.
> You can continue to believe in the myth of the powerful Russian military if you want. I think that myth has been busted.



I'll think you'll remember that I was extremely sceptical about the Russians ability to pull this off, but they have managed to underperform my low expectations. They are resorting to indiscriminate MLRS attacks on civilian areas, about the only thing they aren't doing yet is carpet bombing. The germans when they invaded did it with a million troops



Altair said:


> Is there a world where Russia has control of the skies, Kiev is encircled, Russian soldiers are not abandoning vehicles, Kharkiv is taken, the Ukrainian air force is out of action, the Russian convoy is not stalled, the russians are using combined arms and Russian airborne ops have been successful?



Russian social media


----------



## Haggis

Furniture said:


> While Russia may have improved, their performance so far has been less than inspiring.
> 
> If even half of the reported losses are accurate, Russia has taken a beating that nobody predicted even three weeks ago.


Back in late February we had a lunch table chat at work on the subject of this "special military operation".  I, as one of the older, more senior CAF veterans at work (my workplace has quite a few CAF vets and serving Reservists), was asked my assessment of the Russian chances against Ukraine.  I gave Putin a week - 10 days at most -  before Ukraine capitulated or was destroyed in detail, and I based that on what we, "the west", believed we knew of Russian capabilities and what was being talked about in the media.

Boy, was I wrong!  Yesterday at lunch I walked back my assessment considerably.  I believe Ukraine will still lose without active intervention from the west.  I also believe Ukraine will lose even bigger *with* active intervention from the west - but so will Russia.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Altair said:


> Is there a world where Russia has control of the skies, Kiev is encircled, Russian soldiers are not abandoning vehicles, Kharkiv is taken, the Ukrainian air force is out of action, the Russian convoy is not stalled, the russians are using combined arms and Russian airborne ops have been successful?


Here you can read some actual informed sources:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501417143312789508

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501703778210402308




__





						Institute for the Study of War
					

Russian operations to continue the encirclement of and assault on Kyiv have likely begun, although on a smaller scale and in a more ad hoc manner than ISW expected. The equivalent of a Russian reinforced brigade reportedly tried to advance toward Kyiv




					www.understandingwar.org
				







suffolkowner said:


> I'll think you'll remember that I was extremely sceptical about the Russians ability to pull this off, but they have managed to underperform my low expectations. They are resorting to indiscriminate MLRS attacks on civilian areas, about the only thing they aren't doing yet is carpet bombing. The germans when they invaded did it with a million troops
> 
> 
> 
> Russian social media



You realize encirclement followed by bombardment IS THE STRATEGY right?  🤣

Ukraine has done very well so far, with a lot of outside help, difficult days ahead though.  The Military situation in the South and East is very bad.


----------



## Furniture

Haggis said:


> Back in late February we had a lunch table chat at work on the subject of this "special military operation".  I, as one of the older, more senior CAF veterans at work (my workplace has quite a few CAF vets and serving Reservists), was asked my assessment of the Russian chances against Ukraine.  I gave Putin a week - 10 days at most -  before Ukraine capitulated or was destroyed in detail, and I based that on what we, "the west", believed we knew of Russian capabilities and what was being talked about in the media.
> 
> Boy, was I wrong!  Yesterday at lunch I walked back my assessment considerably.  I believe Ukraine will still lose without active intervention from the west.  I also believe Ukraine will lose even bigger *with* active intervention from the west - but so will Russia.


My take is that the West both overestimated the Russians, and underestimated the Ukrainians. I also expected Ukraine to fall quickly, and Russia to install a new puppet, like they have in Belarus. 

Russia may be able to take Ukraine eventually, but they can't hold it. They can lay waste to it, but the West will help them rebuild when the Russians slink back to the motherland. Ukraine has a very real, and relatively recent(~90 years ago) reason to hate Russian control over them.


----------



## The Bread Guy

suffolkowner said:


> Russian social state media


FTFY

Meanwhile ...

Monday:  *"Putin Says Will Not Send Conscripts or Reservists to Ukraine"* (RUS independent media)
Wednesday:  *“Unfortunately, we have discovered several facts of the presence of conscripts in the units of the Russian Armed Forces participating in a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine”* (RUS state media)


----------



## suffolkowner

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Here you can read some actual informed sources:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501417143312789508
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501703778210402308
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Institute for the Study of War
> 
> 
> Russian operations to continue the encirclement of and assault on Kyiv have likely begun, although on a smaller scale and in a more ad hoc manner than ISW expected. The equivalent of a Russian reinforced brigade reportedly tried to advance toward Kyiv
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.understandingwar.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You realize encirclement followed by bombardment IS THE STRATEGY right?  🤣
> 
> Ukraine has done very well so far, with a lot of outside help, difficult days ahead though.  The Military situation in the South and East is very bad.


yes i do    but thats not what it was sold as

I think we've all seen those sources here before and there is nothing stopping people from posting additional information


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Haggis said:


> Back in late February we had a lunch table chat at work on the subject of this "special military operation".  I, as one of the older, more senior CAF veterans at work (my workplace has quite a few CAF vets and serving Reservists), was asked my assessment of the Russian chances against Ukraine.  I gave Putin a week - 10 days at most -  before Ukraine capitulated or was destroyed in detail, and I based that on what we, "the west", believed we knew of Russian capabilities and what was being talked about in the media.
> 
> Boy, was I wrong!  Yesterday at lunch I walked back my assessment considerably.  I believe Ukraine will still lose without active intervention from the west.  I also believe Ukraine will lose even bigger *with* active intervention from the west - but so will Russia.


I think the real lesson here is that nobody wins in war and the best time to stop it, is before it starts.

As for Military performance, people in glass houses shouldn't throw stones, especially with our performances in Afghanistan and Iraq.  

The most recent of which was the absolute clusterf### that was the Kabul Air Evac.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

suffolkowner said:


> yes i do    but thats not what it was sold as


Who sold it to you?  CNN and Social Media?

You could substitute Russia with basically any foreign power conducting a Military Operation and find failure in recent history.

It's very rare that any of them are really ever truly successful, even our lauded and comparatively easy peacekeeping missions, which points to the uselessness of it all.  😉


----------



## suffolkowner

Altair said:


> Yeah, Americans performed maintenance on their vehicles, and Russians did not.











						Self deploying AFVs
					

Can wheeled AFV really self deploy thousands of miles? A brief discussion on the logistic and reliability realities of such a claim.




					www.tanknology.co.uk
				




lots of maintenance even if you have good tires


----------



## suffolkowner

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Who sold it to you?  CNN and Social Media?
> 
> You could substitute Russia with basically any foreign power conducting a Military Operation and find failure in recent history.
> 
> It's very rare that any of them are really ever truly successful, even our lauded and comparatively easy peacekeeping missions, which points to the uselessness of it all.  😉



uhh Russia?!?!

I never said I thought Russia would have it easy


----------



## OceanBonfire

Attacks on Ukrainian hospitals, ambulances increasing rapidly, WHO warns
					

Attacks on hospitals, ambulances and other health care facilities in Ukraine have increased rapidly in recent days and the country is running short of vital medical supplies, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Tuesday.




					www.reuters.com
				





__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501478136587894784

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501477041174192130


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501724532519981057


----------



## Fishbone Jones

The Bread Guy said:


> And I thought Veep was a sitcom ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Kamala Harris heads to Poland amid Nato fighter jet rift
> 
> 
> The chances of a deal to supply planes to Ukraine look very remote due to escalation fears.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com


Oh to be a fly on the wall to listen to the word salad, posturing and utter stupidity when harris and her bunch hook up with trudeau and his barrel of monkeys.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Altair said:


> Yeah, Americans performed maintenance on their vehicles, and Russians did not.



- Kuwait is an extremely small country.  Tiny...very tiny.  It's like driving around NB or something.  So it was easy for the US led coalition to concentrate forces, and contain Saddam's army.

- the US, on the opening night of festivities, had complete and utter domination of the skies in which to put into play an air campaign that they'd had months to prepare.  

- US forces from all branches were brought to bear including aircraft carriers battle groups and SSNs, who also did some strikes on land targets.

- the coalition began use of military force after all the 'other options' had been given an opportunity under all the UN stuff that happened.

- this list could go on for some time...


I wouldn't compare GW1 and the invasion of Ukraine at all, TBH.  The only thing that they may have in common, in the future, is an insurgency.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501684332431384579


Why not ask the Chief of their Air Force if they’d like another 2.5 dozen Mig 29s.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> So the plan is to somehow encircle a city larger than Toronto with 100k troops without the ability to operate freely in the sky against a determined and well equipped defensive force while struggling to supply their own forces with food and fuel?


Somewhere in hell Guderian, Von Manstein and Von Kluge are all chuckling at the idea of this.


----------



## RangerRay

I just read a long post on Facebook by someone who says they studied Russian air doctrine. I can’t figure out how to link to the post here and I can’t verify whether he does indeed know what he’s talking about. He stated that according to Russian air doctrine, they are only to establish air superiority over the battle front, not the entire airspace. His argument is that according to Russian air doctrine, they have air superiority where they want it therefore are not concerned about the rest of the country. Does that sound right to any of our Air Force guys here?  Sounded weird to me…


----------



## Furniture

Czech_pivo said:


> Why not ask the Chief of their Air Force if they’d like another 2.5 dozen Mig 29s.


Maybe they did... Someone posted yesterday that the Ukrainian government was asking other governments to stop saying exactly what they were sending to Ukraine. 

Perhaps the NATO MIGs, or their weapons, will just grow legs and find themselves in Ukraine without fanfare.  

There is an advantage in telling the Russians when we are sending, and there is also an advantage in letting the Russians "discover" what has been sent.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> The convoy is still sitting there too. A few jets could help with that.
> 
> But nobody is going to do anything without the go ahead from Washington.


Troops bottled up for 2+ weeks on ships will not be fresh and ready for an assault, I don’t care whose army they come from.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Eye In The Sky said:


> - Kuwait is an extremely small country.  Tiny...very tiny.  It's like driving around NB or something.  So it was easy for the US led coalition to concentrate forces, and contain Saddam's army.
> 
> - the US, on the opening night of festivities, had complete and utter domination of the skies in which to put into play an air campaign that they'd had months to prepare.
> 
> - US forces from all branches were brought to bear including aircraft carriers battle groups and SSNs, who also did some strikes on land targets.
> 
> - the coalition began use of military force after all the 'other options' had been given an opportunity under all the UN stuff that happened.
> 
> - this list could go on for some time...
> 
> 
> I wouldn't compare GW1 and the invasion of Ukraine at all, TBH.  The only thing that they may have in common, in the future, is an insurgency.


Yes and despite overwhelming numbers of aircraft, ships and missiles, the US still managed to lose 75 aircraft in approximately 1 month of the air campaign, which goes to show that the loses the Russians have experienced, with way less air power at their disposal, shouldn't be unexpected.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

RangerRay said:


> I just read a long post on Facebook by someone who says they studied Russian air doctrine. I can’t figure out how to link to the post here and I can’t verify whether he does indeed know what he’s talking about. He stated that according to Russian air doctrine, they are only to establish air superiority over the battle front, not the entire airspace. His argument is that according to Russian air doctrine, they have air superiority where they want it therefore are not concerned about the rest of the country. Does that sound right to any of our Air Force guys here?  Sounded weird to me…


Air superiority can also be influenced/based on time and space.  

You could have air superiority in one locale and lose it elsewhere at a certain point and time based on any number of factors.

Example:

If Ukraine were to suddenly throw every aircraft at their disposal over Kyiv and pump every Stinger Missile or AD asset they have in to Kyiv, they may achieve localized air superiority but it would leave them vulnerable elsewhere.

This is why I've been saying from the start that people are confusing the terms Air Superiority with Air Supremacy.  The fact the Russians have had Aircraft shot down doesn't mean they don't have air superiority, it just means the Ukrainians still are capable of denying air space for certain periods of time.


----------



## Furniture

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Yes and despite overwhelming numbers of aircraft, ships and missiles, the US still managed to lose 75 aircraft in approximately 1 month of the air campaign, which goes to show that the loses the Russians have experienced, with way less air power at their disposal, shouldn't be unexpected.


How many US personnel were lost in the war? Airframes don't have grieving wives, and mothers.

GW 1.0 and 2.0 are different beasts for sure, but that doesn't make losses in Ukraine more palatable for Russians. In about 20 months of fighting the Russians lost 5700 troops in Chechnya 1.0, right now estimates for the losses in Ukraine range from a couple hundred, to 11K+... Can Russia sustain those losses in the age of Twitter, FB, TikTok, etc.?

More importantly, can any "professional" military sustain those losses in a two week period, and still be professional?


----------



## GR66

Furniture said:


> While Russia may have improved, their performance so far has been less than inspiring.
> 
> If even half of the reported losses are accurate, Russia has taken a beating that nobody predicted even three weeks ago.


The Germans steamrolled everyone everyone in 1939/40 and the Americans fared very poorly against the Japanese at the outset of the war in the Pacific.  Good news that the Russians have been so ineffective so far and hopefully it will continue, but I think it would be a huge mistake to assume that things can't change.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

RangerRay said:


> I just read a long post on Facebook by someone who says they studied Russian air doctrine. I can’t figure out how to link to the post here and I can’t verify whether he does indeed know what he’s talking about. He stated that according to Russian air doctrine, they are only to establish air superiority over the battle front, not the entire airspace. His argument is that according to Russian air doctrine, they have air superiority where they want it therefore are not concerned about the rest of the country. Does that sound right to any of our Air Force guys here?  Sounded weird to me…



This article might be interesting;  I don't know the author at all, but generally speaking, Janes is a credible organization.





__





						Ukraine conflict: Is the VKS underperforming?
					

Military doctrine dictates that neutralising opposition air defences and air forces to enable freedom of movement for ground elements and facilitate air-to-ground...



					www.janes.com


----------



## KevinB

RangerRay said:


> I just read a long post on Facebook by someone who says they studied Russian air doctrine. I can’t figure out how to link to the post here and I can’t verify whether he does indeed know what he’s talking about. He stated that according to Russian air doctrine, they are only to establish air superiority over the battle front, not the entire airspace. His argument is that according to Russian air doctrine, they have air superiority where they want it therefore are not concerned about the rest of the country. Does that sound right to any of our Air Force guys here?  Sounded weird to me…


There have been a bunch of assessments made on the Russian Air Campaign.  They range from extremely knowledgeable, to pulled that shit from one’s ass 

Short answer is No that isn’t Russian Air Doctrine, what is occurring is a clusterfuck of lack of C2, and majorly inexperienced (compared to Western) pilots, and a threat level set to 11 compared to what they expected.  

I was pretty sure someone here shared a link of a very good OSI report on the what and why of the Russian Air debacle a few days ago.  

I’m not a pilot, but I do know that sending two plane sorties when one is expecting more than two hostile AC isn’t a good idea simply because I can do math.   That is effectively what Russia is doing. 

At most they have flown a 4 plane sortie - of two fighters trying to escort two ground attack craft.  

Not exactly shock and awe of what we could call for air in Iraq or Afghanistan…


----------



## Furniture

GR66 said:


> The Germans steamrolled everyone everyone in 1939/40 and the Americans fared very poorly against the Japanese at the outset of the war in the Pacific.  Good news that the Russians have been so ineffective so far and hopefully it will continue, but I think it would be a huge mistake to assume that things can't change.


In your example you highlight exactly why Russia should be at an advantage right now.

The Russians launched an invasion when nobody "really" expected one, and they have become bogged down in a slow grind with Ukrainian forces. If Germany or Japan had been forced to grind it out on the battlefield for weeks at a time for the day one objectives WWII would have been a very different beast. If France hadn't been trying to fight WWI again in 1940, Germany would have been halted, and pushed back much sooner.

Ukraine isn't fighting WWI...


----------



## KevinB

Another article on the VKS. 

But you can see why some of those tactics won’t work in UKR. 









						Test War: How Russia's Air Force Brutally Used Syria for Target Practice
					

And the results were devastating.




					nationalinterest.org


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Furniture said:


> How many US personnel were lost in the war? Airframes don't have grieving wives, and mothers.
> 
> GW 1.0 and 2.0 are different beasts for sure, but that doesn't make losses in Ukraine more palatable for Russians. In about 20 months of fighting the Russians lost 5700 troops in Chechnya 1.0, right now estimates for the losses in Ukraine range from a couple hundred, to 11K+... Can Russia sustain those losses in the age of Twitter, FB, TikTok, etc.?
> 
> More importantly, can any "professional" military sustain those losses in a two week period, and still be professional?


We aren't talking about combat losses on the ground in Ukraine, we are talking about air combat.  The combat losses on both sides are clearly high, we aren't getting even remotely close to true losses for Ukraine either.

In Gulf War 1 they estimated anywhere from 20,000 - 50,000 iraqi soldiers were killed, mostly by the air campaign.

Without the decisive air campaign, they estimated the Coalition would have taken thousands of casualties.

It would take the Russians many months to grind down the Ukrainian Military by air ala GW1, at which point they would most likely be unable to achieve their political and military objectives, thus necessitating the need for a large and difficult land campaign.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Furniture said:


> In your example you highlight exactly why Russia should be at an advantage right now.
> 
> The Russians launched an invasion when nobody "really" expected one, and they have become bogged down in a slow grind with Ukrainian forces. If Germany or Japan had been forced to grind it out on the battlefield for weeks at a time for the day one objectives WWII would have been a very different beast. If France hadn't been trying to fight WWI again in 1940, Germany would have been halted, and pushed back much sooner.
> 
> Ukraine isn't fighting WWI...


Nobody expected an invasion?  Military intelligence had been saying one was coming for months.


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Nobody expected an invasion?  Military intelligence had been saying one was coming for months.


I certainly expected it.


----------



## Furniture

Humphrey Bogart said:


> We aren't talking about combat losses on the ground in Ukraine, we are talking about air combat.  The combat losses on both sides are clearly high, we aren't getting even remotely close to true losses for Ukraine either.
> 
> In Gulf War 1 they estimated anywhere from 20,000 - 50,000 iraqi soldiers were killed, mostly by the air campaign.
> 
> Without the decisive air campaign, they estimated the Coalition would have taken thousands of casualties.
> 
> It would take the Russians many months to grind down the Ukrainian Military by air ala GW1, at which point they would most likely be unable to achieve their political and military objectives, thus necessitating the need for a large and difficult land campaign.


You're talking about air losses, I'm talking about the invasion in general, as well as air losses. Russia is at 22 confirmed aircraft losses, and they aren't up against the most intense AA system since WWII.

Russia has been slowed/stalled by stiffer resistance than they had seemingly accounted for. Had Coalition forces in 1991 not been able to crush Iraqi forces swiftly, Saddam might still be sitting pretty in Baghdad, as Canada, America, Britain, etc., would not have accepted thousands of casualties in a land war.



Humphrey Bogart said:


> Nobody expected an invasion?  Military intelligence had been saying one was coming for months.


France was at war with Germany for months before they fell, the USA "knew" Japan was going to strike long before bombs fell on Pearl Harbour...

Knowing something is coming, isn't the same as knowing exactly when, and where. Maybe it was known on the ground, but it sure seems like people were caught unaware.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> We aren't talking about combat losses on the ground in Ukraine, we are talking about air combat.  The combat losses on both sides are clearly high, we aren't getting even remotely close to true losses for Ukraine either.
> 
> In Gulf War 1 they estimated anywhere from 20,000 - 50,000 iraqi soldiers were killed, mostly by the air campaign.
> 
> Without the decisive air campaign, they estimated the Coalition would have taken thousands of casualties.
> 
> It would take the Russians many months to grind down the Ukrainian Military by air ala GW1, at which point they would most likely be unable to achieve their political and military objectives, thus necessitating the need for a large and difficult land campaign.



Especially when they start to get Starstreak from the UK next week:

StarStreak: How Britain Plans To Help Ukraine Kill Russia’s Helicopters And Air Force​
*Here Comes StarStreak: British Go Back to the Well With More Weapons to Ukraine –* The British are stepping up again by exploring a plan to send a portable anti-aircraft weapon to Ukraine. The StarStreak missile defender will likely be a show-stopper against Russian aircraft if delivered. The British have already sent around 3,600 NLAW anti-tank missiles to Ukraine with more on the way. Many of these were sent before the war started. This shows a willingness by the United Kingdom to keep Ukraine supplied with modern weaponry.

British defense minister Ben Wallace told Reuters on March 9, “In response to Ukrainian requests, the government has taken the decision to explore the donation of StarStreak high-velocity man-portable anti-air missiles. We believe that this system will remain within the definition of defensive weapons but will allow the Ukrainian force to better defend their skies.”









						StarStreak: How Britain Plans to Help Ukraine Kill Russia's Helicopters and Air Force
					

StarStreak is a man-portable air-defense system used by the British military since 1997. It has the ability to knock out helicopters and more.




					www.19fortyfive.com


----------



## MilEME09

daftandbarmy said:


> Especially when they start to get Starstreak from the UK next week:
> 
> StarStreak: How Britain Plans To Help Ukraine Kill Russia’s Helicopters And Air Force​
> *Here Comes StarStreak: British Go Back to the Well With More Weapons to Ukraine –* The British are stepping up again by exploring a plan to send a portable anti-aircraft weapon to Ukraine. The StarStreak missile defender will likely be a show-stopper against Russian aircraft if delivered. The British have already sent around 3,600 NLAW anti-tank missiles to Ukraine with more on the way. Many of these were sent before the war started. This shows a willingness by the United Kingdom to keep Ukraine supplied with modern weaponry.
> 
> British defense minister Ben Wallace told Reuters on March 9, “In response to Ukrainian requests, the government has taken the decision to explore the donation of StarStreak high-velocity man-portable anti-air missiles. We believe that this system will remain within the definition of defensive weapons but will allow the Ukrainian force to better defend their skies.”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> StarStreak: How Britain Plans to Help Ukraine Kill Russia's Helicopters and Air Force
> 
> 
> StarStreak is a man-portable air-defense system used by the British military since 1997. It has the ability to knock out helicopters and more.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.19fortyfive.com


If starstreaks actual preformance is even remotely close to it's specs, Russia could be in for a lot more air losses, hard to evade something going mach 4


----------



## Spencer100

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Peter the Great Military Academy, it could be mistaken for West Point if you didn't know any better.
> 
> It's certainly nicer than equivalent Canadian esestablishments.


Did they forget the courses on logistics and maintenance?  Lost the syllabus?


----------



## TheProfessional

The Bread Guy said:


> FTFY
> 
> Meanwhile ...
> 
> Monday:  *"Putin Says Will Not Send Conscripts or Reservists to Ukraine"* (RUS independent media)
> Wednesday:  *“Unfortunately, we have discovered several facts of the presence of conscripts in the units of the Russian Armed Forces participating in a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine”* (RUS state media)


This is interesting . Russia does have conscription for population aged 18- 23 I believe, which means they have a bunch of drafted kids who have no experience and probably low morale.

Now I read somewhere that part of old soviet Doctrine involves sending under-equipped, inexperienced conscripts as cannon fodder in the first wave to wear down the enemy, and then send in the well equipped, well trained main Force afterwards to go for The Knockout blow. If so that would be quite convenient.

Putin reassures Russian mothers that none of their young conscripted sons are sent to Ukraine and then two days later whoops, we have" discovered" that they have been deployed, sorry our mistake. It makes no sense. How do you" discover" something like this 2 weeks into an invasion? Oh sorry I meant special military operation. What a Gong Show. Does the Russian government really expect people to believe that they're not aware of what personnel they are sending into a combat operation?

I guess we can expect the main effort to start now that the baby faced conscripts and Khadirovites have gotten wrecked while still inflicting damage on Ukrainian forces and infrastructures. Russian commanders will just play it off like it was a mistake somehow and move on to phase 2. 

Although the VDV getting smoked probably wasn't part of that plan I'm sure.


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> I certainly expected it.


I knew it would materialize when reports that a drawdown of Russian troop numbers on the border were proven to be false. Going down memory lane, they were at 100k for a bit, then announced the withdrawal of 40k, and about 24-36 hours later it was determined that they had actually bolstered up to 190k.

That convinced me that 1. There was not the slightest intention of de-escalation and the invasion would proceed, and then that 2. Any pundit, ''expert'', or political ''leader'' who was still unsure, failing to recognize Putin's 2/23 speech as the War declaration that it was, and calling his deployment in DLPR a ''minor incursion'' was an absolute buffoon, or a blind fool at best.

Now, shower thought: Considering Russian sluggishness in the North, contrasted with their savagery on Mariupol in the South, it seems to me they actually might be very serious about ''de-nazifying'' Ukraine. If they succeed in destroying the Azov Battalion, that might just be the sort of victory that gives Putin an out. Something that lets him say ''Mission accomplished!''


----------



## MilEME09

TheProfessional said:


> hat a Gong Show. Does the Russian government really expect people to believe that they're not aware of what personnel they are sending into a combat operation?
> 
> I guess we can expect the main effort to start now that the baby faced conscripts and Khadirovites have gotten wrecked while still inflicting damage on Ukrainian forces and infrastructures. Russian commanders will just play it off like it was a mistake somehow and move on to phase 2.
> 
> Although the VDV getting smoked probably wasn't part of that plan I'm sure.



I doubt the plan is this well thought out, they are stripping every other front to send in reinforcements to Ukraine. Russian air strikes are reportedly using dumb bombs now instead of guided munitions. While some call it terror tactics, is also potentially proves early reports russia only had enough advanced munitions to last ten days. There lack of a shock and awe air campaign may also be a lack of stock piled spare parts for aircraft. Their advanced are stalling, and god help them if they run out of anti-air, or air to air munitions. The longer this drags on the worse it is looking for Russia. Ukraine has already begun counter attacks around Kharkiv, and are slowly pushing out their protective bubble. Even the south is slowing down, with supply lines constantly being hit, and Russia by passing major strong holds to try and get to Kyiv, enabling Ukrainian forces to hit their rear lines. This is boiling down to looking like a bad outcome for russia, so of course they are going to set the conditions for some false flag CBRN attack that wil actually be them this entire time.


----------



## SupersonicMax

KevinB said:


> There have been a bunch of assessments made on the Russian Air Campaign.  They range from extremely knowledgeable, to pulled that shit from one’s ass
> 
> Short answer is No that isn’t Russian Air Doctrine, what is occurring is a clusterfuck of lack of C2, and majorly inexperienced (compared to Western) pilots, and a threat level set to 11 compared to what they expected.
> 
> I was pretty sure someone here shared a link of a very good OSI report on the what and why of the Russian Air debacle a few days ago.
> 
> I’m not a pilot, but I do know that sending two plane sorties when one is expecting more than two hostile AC isn’t a good idea simply because I can do math.   That is effectively what Russia is doing.
> 
> At most they have flown a 4 plane sortie - of two fighters trying to escort two ground attack craft.
> 
> Not exactly shock and awe of what we could call for air in Iraq or Afghanistan…


Just as a comparison, I have, several times in my career during both Large Force Employment exercises and operations, mission commanded north of 50 aircraft against 20 to 30 adversaries (that many adversaries in exercise only obviously), integrated with joint effects (no, I don’t just mean land effects!) to service multiple target sets in a fairly small area and constrained by time. It is challenging and requires honing of the basic 4-ship leading and combat skills so that you don’t need concentrate in your “regular” job too much and can focus on the bigger picture of herding 50 aircraft towards a common goal. Honing of the basic skills require lots of practice.  When I was really really proficient at it, I flew 2-300 hours per year.


----------



## tomydoom

Sometimes, you have to love the Irish.  









						Councillors pass motion to change name of Russian Embassy location to Independent Ukraine Road
					

It’s expected that local residents will now be consulted on the matter.




					www.thejournal.ie
				




FYI,  a note on Irish place names, in case you read the full article.   In the name of the referenced county council Dún Laoghaire is pronounced Dun Leary not as you might expect.  Do not ask me why, I only live hear and the logic of Irish pronunciation is a mystery to me and the usual response of "it's not English, it's Irish" is unhelpful for expats and tourists.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> Why not ask the Chief of their Air Force if they’d like another 2.5 dozen Mig 29s.


Or the UKR President - this from last night ....


> ... Either close the Ukrainian sky from Russian missiles and bombs, or give us fighter jets so that we can do everything ourselves ...


I won't post all the links, but almost every speech for the past week mentions a variation on this theme:  no-fly zone or give us planes to fight with.

Also, latest stats from UKR's mil int info-machine ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Spencer100 said:


> Did they forget the courses on logistics and maintenance?  Lost the syllabus?


Online learning - with shitty internet connection?


----------



## Weinie

The Bread Guy said:


> Online learning - with shitty internet connection?


Like the DLN.


----------



## The Bread Guy

If you have 10 minutes to spare, check out how RUS's MoD (via YouTube) shows how the boys are baking up a storm and laying on sumptuous spreads for those participating in the not-a-war (including RUS hayboxes) - also includes other logistics goodies.  Enjoy, comrade!


----------



## Remius

tomydoom said:


> Sometimes, you have to love the Irish.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Councillors pass motion to change name of Russian Embassy location to Independent Ukraine Road
> 
> 
> It’s expected that local residents will now be consulted on the matter.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thejournal.ie
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> FYI,  a note on Irish place names, in case you read the full article.   In the name of the referenced county council Dún Laoghaire is pronounced Dun Leary not as you might expect.  Do not ask me why, I only live hear and the logic of Irish pronunciation is a mystery to me and the usual response of "it's not English, it's Irish" is unhelpful for expats and tourists.


Yeah, they did something similar here, changing the name of the street the Russian Embassy is on to Zelensky Drive


----------



## The Bread Guy

Newspeak, RUS version ...


----------



## rmc_wannabe

The Bread Guy said:


> Newspeak, RUS version ...
> View attachment 69359


"I swear officer... I'm not drunk. I just am really tired. And I have a speech impediment. And an inner ear problem.... and a stomach flu..."


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Newspeak, RUS version ...
> View attachment 69359


Clearly the UKR delegation etc should have asked about the planned "Special Military Operation" for Moldova...


----------



## Portnord

I'm not sure why you guys argue over Russian objectives. Totalitarian governments are expert gaslighters. They will alternately praise, vilify, dissemble, lie, obfuscate, move goalposts, flip flop.... it's beyond propaganda. It's not even about controlling the message. The confusion is the whole point. It's like a cult. They want people to stop trying to figure things out and blindly obey the great leader or at least throw their hands up and walk away, if nothing else to protect their own sanity.

They lie to themselves as much as to the outside world, maybe more. So it doesn't mean anything if noone seems to know if conscripts are fighting or what the air doctrine of the day is or whether Kyiv is getting surrounded or not. 

Whatever happens, Russia will claim they had anticipated it, or that it was the plan all along. Anything bad will be someone else's fault and woe is Russia, it will fall to them to save the day.

Actions and consequences on the other hand, at least those can be verified.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501904893464006659

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501904596838621186


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501874452090560515


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501874452090560515


I was told on very good authority that Russia has a military academy.


----------



## MilEME09

Altair said:


> I was told on very good authority that Russia has a military academy.


Teaching and learning are two different things apparently


----------



## Czech_pivo

From what I've been able to gather, as of today, here are the NATO countries that have NOT publicly announced any support in terms of any military support for the Ukraine.  For me, the ones on this are no surprise.

1) Hungary
2) Bulgaria
3) Montenegro
4) North Macedonia
5) Slovenia
6) Albania
7) Iceland (what could they really send anyways?)

Not surprised by *Hungary*, as the Arrow Cross Party that's in government is a Fascist/Nationalist government and its leader is friendly with Putin. 

*Bulgaria* doesn't surprise me as well, soooo many Russians, elite and non-elite still go to Varna/Burgas coastline during the summer months. Culturally/religiously/linguistically they are very close to the Russians. 

The same goes with *Montenegro*, where many Russian elites summer along with coastline (think Porto Montenegro).  A number of Russian Olie's (think Oleg Deripaska) go there quite often - fun fact - our own Peter Munk of 'Barrick Gold' fame, had dear old Oleg as one of his investors back in 2009/10 when Peter, Oleg and 2 Rothschilds bought Porto Montenegro for 155m Euro and turned it into the 'next Monaco' on the Med.  Re: Peter Munk, he did sell out in 2016, not long before he died, but after Oleg was put on the shit list. 

*North Macedonia* is Orthodox, dirt poor, pro-Russian and corrupt so I'm not certain what they could send.

*Albania* - refer to North Macedonia, minus the Orthodox and had some more corruption. 

*Slovenia* is the surprise here.  Its wealthy/moden (by former Communist terms), stable, not Orthodox and not overly friendly with the Russians.  Wondering if someone confused them with Slovakia and just forgot to kick them under the table and tell them to pony up some weapons.

*Iceland*, the Ukrainians haven't asked for any Cod so they have nothing to send.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Portnord said:


> ... Totalitarian governments are expert gaslighters. They will alternately praise, vilify, dissemble, lie, obfuscate, move goalposts, flip flop.... it's beyond propaganda. It's not even about controlling the message. The confusion is the whole point. It's like a cult. They want people to stop trying to figure things out and blindly obey the great leader or at least throw their hands up and walk away, if nothing else to protect their own sanity.
> 
> They lie to themselves as much as to the outside world, maybe more. So it doesn't mean anything if noone seems to know if conscripts are fighting or what the air doctrine of the day is or whether Kyiv is getting surrounded or not ...


You're preaching to the choir in that respect, for sure, but it's still interesting to share the most egregious examples in case some people say, "oh, they can't be bullshitting THAT much, can they?"  I'm also intrigued seeing the narrative buttons they consistently push ....


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> From what I've been able to gather, as of today, here are the NATO countries that have NOT publicly announced any support in terms of any military support for the Ukraine.  For me, the ones on this are no surprise.
> 
> 1) Hungary
> 2) Bulgaria
> 3) Montenegro
> 4) North Macedonia
> 5) Slovenia
> 6) Albania
> 7) Iceland (what could they really send anyways?)


Keep in mind some countries have made it very explicit they do not want their support to be public...

At least 3 on that list have provided, and 1 pretty significantly.


----------



## KevinB

How do you know a Russian diplomat is lying?
  Easy, their lips are moving.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501870356541452290


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Keep in mind some countries have made it very explicit they do not want their support to be public...
> 
> At least 3 on that list have provided, and 1 pretty significantly.


Care to list who you think contributed?  I'd be surprised in Hungary/Montenegro were on it.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Keep in mind some countries have made it very explicit they do not want their support to be public...


UKR's DefMin even mentioned this earlier this week (Google English) ....


> ... Military-technical cooperation is a very delicate area that requires an extremely balanced approach to public comment. Especially during the war.
> 
> In this regard, I appeal to everyone. Please do not spread the word that certain countries provide weapons to our country. Refrain from commenting on this. Reserve the right to speak on these topics exclusively to officials.
> 
> I understand people's desire to share the good news. But sometimes this creates an informational background that negatively affects the result.
> 
> This can make it difficult for our army to gain additional capabilities that it simply needs to gain. As a result, Ukraine may suffer losses that we could have avoided and should avoid!
> 
> All information that can be published in agreement with the partners, we will be sure to publish in a timely manner. The enemy does not have to know what to expect. Let it be an unpleasant surprise for him ...


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Care to list who you think contributed?  I'd be surprised in Hungary/Montenegro were on it.


I cannot sorry.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Altair said:


> I was told on very good authority that Russia has a military academy.


Keep sucking up the Twitter war porn.  Guess what, both sides are taking massive casualties.

We all want Ukraine to win, some of just aren't delusional about it 😉


----------



## daftandbarmy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Keep sucking up the Twitter war porn.  Guess what, both sides are taking massive casualties.
> 
> We all want Ukraine to win, some of just aren't delusional about it 😉



This just in....


----------



## Altair

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Keep sucking up the Twitter war porn.  Guess what, both sides are taking massive casualties.
> 
> We all want Ukraine to win, some of just aren't delusional about it 😉


Both sides are. But I wont pretend, like you seem to be, that the Russians have shown any level of basic competence when it comes to their military performance in this war. 

I'm not saying Ukraine will win, I'm saying that Russia has been exposed as trash.


----------



## Dana381

KevinB said:


> How do you know a Russian *diplomat* is lying?
> Easy, their lips are moving.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501870356541452290



FTFY


----------



## dapaterson

Interesting thread on sanctions and what impact they may have 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501714238758346752


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Altair said:


> Both sides are. But I wont pretend, like you seem to be, that the Russians have shown any level of basic competence when it comes to their military performance in this war.
> 
> I'm not saying Ukraine will win, I'm saying that Russia has been exposed as trash.


Do you think any Military in the World, engaged in an imperial war of conquest and faced with similar conditions:

1.  An enemy with large conventional army
2.  Said conventional army possesses modern sophisticated weaponry and is combat experienced.
3.  Said conventional army is being widely supported with weaponry, funding, training and now bodies from another powerful military bloc.
4.  Said Country has the entire intelligence apparatus of an even more powerful collective security bloc supporting it.

What Country's military would fare well in that situation and under those conditions? 

The lesson here isn't that Russia's military is bad, the lesson is that wars of imperial conquest are extremely costly, especially ones where you don't have a lot of support.


----------



## Altair

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Do you think any Military in the World, engaged in an imperial war of conquest and faced with similar conditions:
> 
> 1.  An enemy with large conventional army
> 2.  Said conventional army possesses modern sophisticated weaponry and is combat experienced.
> 3.  Said conventional army is being widely supported with weaponry, funding, training and now bodies from another powerful military bloc.
> 4.  Said Country has the entire intelligence apparatus of an even more powerful collective security bloc supporting it.
> 
> What Country's military would fare well in that situation and under those conditions?
> 
> The lesson here isn't that Russia's military is bad, the lesson is that wars of imperial conquest are extremely costly, especially ones where you don't have a lot of support.


I'm sure that if NATO was facing the same Ukrainian military, they would


Have knocked out the Ukrainian Air force
Make sure their troops are fed
Make sure their vehicles are not running out of fuel
Not have their vehicles stolen by Ukrainian farmers
Use combined arms tactics
Use air power to overwhelm the enemy
Again, I'm not knocking the Russians for facing a tough opponent in the Ukrainians. I'm knocking Russia for not being able to do the very basics while confronting a tough opponent in the Ukrainians. If Russia was doing the very best it could, doing all of the above and still struggling, fair.

But when one cannot even show they can do the very minimum expected of a world class military force while getting beat up by the Ukrainians, well, that's a different story. A very amusing one where we get to watch Russian tanks get towed away by farmers.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Altair said:


> I'm sure that if NATO was facing the same Ukrainian military, they would
> 
> 
> Have knocked out the Ukrainian Air force
> Make sure their troops are fed
> Make sure their vehicles are not running out of fuel
> Not have their vehicles stolen by Ukrainian farmers
> Use combined arms tactics
> Use air power to overwhelm the enemy
> Again, I'm not knocking the Russians for facing a tough opponent in the Ukrainians. I'm knocking Russia for not being able to do the very basics while confronting a tough opponent in the Ukrainians. If Russia was doing the very best it could, doing all of the above and still struggling, fair.
> 
> But when one cannot even show they can not do the very minimum expected of a world class military force while getting beat up by the Ukrainians, well, that's a different story. A very amusing one where we get to watch Russian tanks get towed away by farmers.


Russia is a State, NATO is a collection of States. You're comparing apples and oranges.


----------



## Altair

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Russia is a State, NATO is a collection of States. You're comparing apples and oranges.


Replace NATO with USA and my post doesn't change.

Again, if you want to handwave away the obvious struggles Russia has shown, their massive failings in multiple aspects of this war, be my guest.







I will continue to view their military, and their performance in this conflict, as complete and utter trash.


----------



## TacticalTea

Altair said:


> Replace NATO with USA and my post doesn't change.
> 
> Again, if you want to handwave away the obvious struggles Russia has shown, their massive failings in multiple aspects of this war, be my guest.
> 
> I will continue to view their military, and their performance in this conflict, as complete and utter trash.


To your point;


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501873146818969610

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501881609137577984


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Russia is a State, NATO is a collection of States. You're comparing apples and oranges.



I've done NATO exercises with air/surface/sub-surface assets.  I'm not sure NATO would be the picture-perfect "well oiled machine" at the start of hostilities....


----------



## MilEME09

So this is how Russia replies to them bombing hospitals.......sickening


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501925963998932995


----------



## Altair

Eye In The Sky said:


> I've done NATO exercises with air/surface/sub-surface assets.  I'm not sure NATO would be the picture-perfect "well oiled machine" at the start of hostilities....


This is true, but NATO/USA wouldnt be this level of incompetent either.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> So this is how Russia replies to them bombing hospitals.......sickening
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501925963998932995


FWIW I believe they want to be called USSR 2.0 now

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501934381803266053


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501938378878558220


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501938378878558220


To be fair, with the amount of these things captured and being posted on amazon for sale, the price may be dropping. Probably worth 15-16 million now.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501861898953891840
So Lavrov came in with surrender......


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501815926865510400


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501959876481847299


----------



## tomydoom

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501861898953891840
> So Lavrov came in with surrender......


I initially read it as Russia wants to surrender.   It's likely more realistic than some of the things they are demanding.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501944599278862339


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501959876481847299



What we need is a good proxy Air Force.

Where's the 'Blackwater Air Force' when you need them?

Oh, wait: 









						Blackwater Founder Wants To Provide A "Turn Key" Mercenary Air Force For Afghanistan
					

But the new proposal from infamous Erik Prince could immediately face legal and logistical problems.




					www.thedrive.com


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501959876481847299


''It's time to for HIM to be fearful of what WE might do!''
-Mitt Romney

Meanwhile, The socialists Ilhan Omar, AOC, and Rashida Tlaib vote with lunatics and pedophile MTG, Lauren Boebert and Matt Gaetz against Ukraine aid bill

Perhaps I could've been more neutral. Call em far-left and far-right if you'd like. At any rate, what they have in common is populism. I presume their target audience is toddlers in the ''no!'' phase.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> This is true, but NATO/USA wouldnt be this level of incompetent either.


Well maybe if it was some Albanian, North Macedonia and Montenegro troops trying to do combined arms...


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> Well maybe if it was some Albanian, North Macedonia and Montenegro troops trying to do combined arms...


Yes, but I think most people would have expected more competence from the Russian military than Albania, North Macedonia and Montenegro. I know I did.

I will admit when I was wrong though.


----------



## KevinB

Article is a few days old - but offers some good perspectives.
  The retired Col who rejoined gives an excellent insight into the mindset of the Ukrainian people and their fortitude.








						Proud Band of Ukrainian Troops Holds Russian Assault at Bay — for Now
					

“Few expected such strength from our people,” said a Ukrainian colonel whose soldiers have repelled a Russian attack on the port city of Mykolaiv for three days.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Eye In The Sky said:


> I've done NATO exercises with air/surface/sub-surface assets.  I'm not sure NATO would be the picture-perfect "well oiled machine" at the start of hostilities....


No it wouldn't and events have proven that in the past.  We had our own "oh shit" moment after Op MEDUSA in Afghanistan when we realized that the NSE for the Theatre was completely unsuited to what we actually required (they had imported the Kabul model for Kandahar based on a bunch of false assumptions). 

How about the wildly optimistic performance reviews of the US Military in Iraq.  Reports that "all was well" ran country to the general feeling that something was rotten in the State of Denmark.



Altair said:


> Replace NATO with USA and my post doesn't change.
> 
> Again, if you want to handwave away the obvious struggles Russia has shown, their massive failings in multiple aspects of this war, be my guest.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I will continue to view their military, and their performance in this conflict, as complete and utter trash.


Did I ever say their Military wasn't having difficulties.  They are currently conducting a difficult campaign against a determined and well armed adversary, across a very large front(s).  They don't have superiority in numbers either.

We've seen in every large Military conflict ever fought that most Wars commence with both sides making a bunch of false assumptions about everything from logistics, weapons performance, tactics, morale, etc.

Professional Military Establishments generate operational plans based on estimates that are essentially educated guess work.  Sometimes these estimates are wrong.

As for logistics, it's difficult in any Military Campaign.  What would you say if I told you Canada had a similarly difficult time during our initial forays in to Southern Afghanistan?  Albeit on a much smaller scale because we only had what would be the equivalent of a single BTG in theatre.

It was so difficult the Government published a formal report on what would be required IOT continue supporting the operation as the situation was deteriorating:  





__





						Information archivée dans le Web | Information Archived on the Web
					






					publications.gc.ca
				





Unrelated:

What I hope our own Military learns from studying this war is that concepts like ADO, which was the Canadian Army buzzword of choice for as long as I can remember, go away.

The Russians tried their own version of ADO by attacking on 4 different axis (more if you count the failed airborne envelopement attempts) and it ran out of steam fairly quickly in the face of stiff resistance.

My takeaway from this was mass and concentration of force are critical principles that should not be ignored.  Had Russian not spread their forces across an extremely wide front and instead concentrated on two smaller fronts, they may have in fact had a more successful opening attack with a possible breakthrough happening earlier.


----------



## daftandbarmy

You know it's a real war when comparisons with the Hyderabad campaign crop up 


Russian forces’ actions in Ukraine show a dilemma like Indian Army’s in 1948 Hyderabad ops​
There's a reason Putin's army in Ukraine is stumbling and bumbling. It's unlike Stalin's Red Army against the German Wehrmacht World War II.​https://api.whatsapp.com/send?text=...ke-indian-armys-in-1948-hyderabad-ops/859724/


The way the Russian forces are advancing in a halting fashion on the capital city of Kyiv and on Kharkiv — taking casualties and not always reacting harshly, suggests that this is not a war of the kind the Russian military is geared to fight. There is no semblance here to the victorious campaigns of Joseph Stalin’s Red Army against the German Wehrmacht in the Second World War or the sort of operations the Soviet military and its Warsaw Pact complement were prepared to unleash across the Fulda Gap during the Cold War.

This ruthless mode of warfare emphasizes a rolling barrage of ceaseless and devastating long-range artillery fire in tandem with the equally relentless air-to-ground strikes by combat aircraft of the “frontal aviation” forces which, combined arms effort is meant, quite literally, to flatten the earth, and clear the path for the onrushing columns 
*Russia on Ukrainian soil*​It is clear the Kremlin did not bargain for the inspiring leadership of the young Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, or for the resistance put up by the Kalashnikov-armed nationalists prosecuting holding actions alongside a competent military. These include strikes on Russian tanks and armoured personnel carriers by the TB-2 Bayraktar-armed drones purchased from Turkey, anti-tank guided munitions, sniper fire, and, at close quarters, expert attacks with Molotov Cocktails — the endless bottles of half-filled beer provided by a local brewery. Putin’s plans for intimidating Zelensky and Co. into submission has plainly failed.

But an agreement that retains for an Ukraine, minus the eastern “autonomous republics” of Luhansk and Donetsk in the Donbas region habited by Russian-speaking people, its freedom in return for not joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) may still be the compromise solution all parties will eventually agree to. Russia, moreover, is unlikely to restore to Ukraine parts of the Black Sea coast it captures, except on the condition that the naval infrastructure built on it, inclusive of the naval bases at Sevastopol and Odessa which, according to the 1997 partition agreement, is shared by the Russian and Ukrainian navies, is never allowed to be accessed by the United States and NATO navies. After all, Putin’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 was supposed to address precisely Russia’s vulnerability from the Black Sea approaches.


These geostrategic aims aside, there is no apparent premium for the Kremlin to so embitter Ukraine and its people as to make permanent enemies of them. This is reflected in the relatively small size of the deployed Russian force — just 175,00 troops strong — which is inadequate to forcibly take over Ukraine (for perspective, the Indian Army has some 650,000 soldiers in place to keep the Srinagar Valley “quiet”). And in the extremely wary and careful movement, for instance, by the Russian armoured component from Crimea to capture the city of Kherson intact, and then to permit the local government there to fly the Ukrainian flag from government buildings.

Such military behaviour was undoubtedly part of Putin’s plan for “restrained action”, symbolised by the precision attack on the “training” hub of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear complex, rather than on the nuclear reactors, and the immediate dousing of the resulting fire. The Zaporizhzhia power plant supplies 20-25 per cent of the electricity consumed in Ukraine, and a hit on it was to send a message to Zelensky to not tarry at the negotiating table.

The other reason for Moscow ordering peaceful capture of nuclear power stations may be to take control of stocks of spent uranium fuel to pre-empt a future Ukrainian government from using them to make nuclear bombs. In any case, the moderation in Russian military operations is to minimize the offence given to native Ukrainians and to wait out/wear out the armed nationalist elements among them, rather than go in for wholesale slaughter of the population and destruction of cities. In this context, the Ukrainian resistance, while brave, is ultimately hopeless and is potentially useful only as a bargaining card for the Zelensky regime to play in the ongoing negotiations with Russia in Belarus.

The Russian forces in Ukraine, have, from the beginning, faced a tactical dilemma that’s not unlike what the Indian Army units, perhaps, faced when advancing on the “princely kingdom” of Hyderabad with the intent to amalgamate it into the Indian Union. The Nizam, Mir Osman Ali Khan, was determined on having a sovereign country right in the middle of peninsular India. His representative, the British barrister Walter Monckton, spent over a year negotiating with the home ministry under the no-nonsense Vallabhbhai Patel. ‘Operation Polo’ was launched on 13 September 1948, only after it became obvious to the Indian government that the Nizam was buying time and using the “standstill agreement” to equip his forces with weapons ferried from Karachi in old Dakota aircraft piloted by foreign mercenaries, with a view to resisting the unification. By 17 September it was all over.

Consider the situation confronting Major General JN Chaudhuri — the commander of the Indian force tasked with taking Hyderabad but with minimum fuss. Advancing mainly along the Vijayawada and Solapur-Secunderabad axes, the Commanding Officers of the lead elements from Poona Horse and 2/5 Gurkhas from the Vijayawada side with the 19th Field Battery and two squadrons of the Hawker Tempest fighter planes, ex-Pune, in support, and of the 9 Para, 3rd Cavalry, 13th Cavalry, 3/2 Punjab and 2/1 Gurkhas on the Solapur line, must have been terrified of getting into firefights with the Nizam’s forces, especially in the built-up urban areas as that would have resulted in unacceptably high civilian casualties. This is borne out by the tactics employed of not using strike aircraft or even mortars and engaging the Nizam’s soldiery, as much as possible, on the outskirts of towns and in the countryside. Fortunately, for the Indian Army, the commander of Osman Ali’s forces, General El Edroos, an Arab, had under him the Razakar rabble, not a professional army.

Imagine an alternative scenario and assume, for argument’s sake, that the Nizam’s 66,000-strong army — 55 per cent Muslim, was backed by the majority Hindu population in his quest for an independent Hyderabad. Now consider how much more difficult and delicate the Indian Army’s job would have been. Hyderabad would, of course, have been absorbed one way or the other into India. But the Indian military actions, in that case, would have had to have been that much more cautious, with each step tenuously taken for fear, say, of a rifle company of the Gurkhas taking the _khukri_ to a terrified bunch of civilians caught in the wrong place at the wrong time, or of wayward artillery shells taking out cultural symbols and historical monuments — a Char Minar here, numerous palaces of the Nizam there, or even the Hyderabadi infrastructure the people couldn’t do without — the railways, the power station, communications systems, road transport, post, telegraph, etc.

Seen in this light, one gets an inkling of just how unmanageable the situation can get for an army working under such constraints, and understand the impossible circumstances of the Russian land forces in Ukraine. And why they are moving and fighting so gingerly in the worst kind of mission that a conventional military can be asked to undertake.

For Russia, Ukraine is a site for an onerous ‘police action’; it is not a battlefield where anything goes.









						Russian forces' actions in Ukraine show a dilemma like Indian Army's in 1948 Hyderabad ops
					

There's a reason Putin's army in Ukraine is stumbling and bumbling. It's unlike Stalin's Red Army against the German Wehrmacht World War II.




					theprint.in


----------



## Blackadder1916

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501815926865510400



A touch of Canadian military thinking.  The first thing we'll do is make sure we get the bling right.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Yes, but I think most people would have expected more competence from the Russian military than Albania, North Macedonia and Montenegro. I know I did.
> 
> I will admit when I was wrong though.


They have done well (relatively) in the South.   

   Let's face it - if the ground was frozen, it would be a completely different story.   


Humphrey Bogart said:


> My takeaway from this was mass and concentration of force are critical principles that should not be ignored.  Had Russian not spread their forces across an extremely wide front and instead concentrated on two smaller fronts, they may have in fact had a more successful opening attack with a possible breakthrough happening earlier.


Longer convoys?

  You can only push so much material down roadways - when the shoulders are a bog.   Most of the rural roads will not support much more than a soft skin truck.  So they are stuck to major hi ways - and other paved - or solid dry roadways.
     The multi prong axis of advances forced the UA to spread out - and not fully support some areas -- you will see that they effectively sacrificed the South to pull CS elements to defend Kyiv.

The utter lack of C2, lack of Air Support in any serious quantity outside the Southern Areas, and open comms and jammed navigation was debilitating - with the fact that maintenance and supplies seem to have been poorly managed (if at all).

But yeah - it is equally clear that earlier in OIF/OEF a lot of Western Units (and entire National Contingents) had some major issues - from competency to maintenance, to supplies.
  Also some units had extreme moral issues -- when I was in Iraq I was constantly shocked by seeing troops either getting ready to go out on convoys or driving down the roads with earphones in listening to music - as they had resigned themselves that they where going to get ambushed regardless if they where paying attention or not.   Conducting training for some units I was equally disgusted with the proficiency of their NCO's and Officers, and troop basic shooting ability - and the inability for a lot of CS personnel to actually conduct fire and movement.

We have also seen certain units (cough R22eR) who will sell fuel to locals, etc, so before we totally cast all the shade on the RF forces, try to put yourself in their shoes -- most of them are conscripted (sorry Vlad you are full of shit) their living conditions suck, they are told jack and shit - and it doesn't get much better until one is either a specialist SNCO position (and then again not particularly awesome either) or a Senior Officer.  Toss in your senior officers are stealing from your unit, because they see their higher elements doing it too.


----------



## KevinB

daftandbarmy said:


> You know it's a real war when comparisons with the Hyderabad campaign crop up
> 
> 
> Russian forces’ actions in Ukraine show a dilemma like Indian Army’s in 1948 Hyderabad ops​
> There's a reason Putin's army in Ukraine is stumbling and bumbling. It's unlike Stalin's Red Army against the German Wehrmacht World War II.​https://api.whatsapp.com/send?text=Russian+forces’+actions+in+Ukraine+show+a+dilemma+like+Indian+Army’s+in+1948+Hyderabad+ops https://theprint.in/opinion/russian-forces-actions-in-ukraine-show-a-dilemma-like-indian-armys-in-1948-hyderabad-ops/859724/
> 
> 
> The way the Russian forces are advancing in a halting fashion on the capital city of Kyiv and on Kharkiv — taking casualties and not always reacting harshly, suggests that this is not a war of the kind the Russian military is geared to fight. There is no semblance here to the victorious campaigns of Joseph Stalin’s Red Army against the German Wehrmacht in the Second World War or the sort of operations the Soviet military and its Warsaw Pact complement were prepared to unleash across the Fulda Gap during the Cold War.
> 
> This ruthless mode of warfare emphasizes a rolling barrage of ceaseless and devastating long-range artillery fire in tandem with the equally relentless air-to-ground strikes by combat aircraft of the “frontal aviation” forces which, combined arms effort is meant, quite literally, to flatten the earth, and clear the path for the onrushing columns
> *Russia on Ukrainian soil*​It is clear the Kremlin did not bargain for the inspiring leadership of the young Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, or for the resistance put up by the Kalashnikov-armed nationalists prosecuting holding actions alongside a competent military. These include strikes on Russian tanks and armoured personnel carriers by the TB-2 Bayraktar-armed drones purchased from Turkey, anti-tank guided munitions, sniper fire, and, at close quarters, expert attacks with Molotov Cocktails — the endless bottles of half-filled beer provided by a local brewery. Putin’s plans for intimidating Zelensky and Co. into submission has plainly failed.
> 
> But an agreement that retains for an Ukraine, minus the eastern “autonomous republics” of Luhansk and Donetsk in the Donbas region habited by Russian-speaking people, its freedom in return for not joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) may still be the compromise solution all parties will eventually agree to. Russia, moreover, is unlikely to restore to Ukraine parts of the Black Sea coast it captures, except on the condition that the naval infrastructure built on it, inclusive of the naval bases at Sevastopol and Odessa which, according to the 1997 partition agreement, is shared by the Russian and Ukrainian navies, is never allowed to be accessed by the United States and NATO navies. After all, Putin’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 was supposed to address precisely Russia’s vulnerability from the Black Sea approaches.
> 
> 
> These geostrategic aims aside, there is no apparent premium for the Kremlin to so embitter Ukraine and its people as to make permanent enemies of them. This is reflected in the relatively small size of the deployed Russian force — just 175,00 troops strong — which is inadequate to forcibly take over Ukraine (for perspective, the Indian Army has some 650,000 soldiers in place to keep the Srinagar Valley “quiet”). And in the extremely wary and careful movement, for instance, by the Russian armoured component from Crimea to capture the city of Kherson intact, and then to permit the local government there to fly the Ukrainian flag from government buildings.
> 
> Such military behaviour was undoubtedly part of Putin’s plan for “restrained action”, symbolised by the precision attack on the “training” hub of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear complex, rather than on the nuclear reactors, and the immediate dousing of the resulting fire. The Zaporizhzhia power plant supplies 20-25 per cent of the electricity consumed in Ukraine, and a hit on it was to send a message to Zelensky to not tarry at the negotiating table.
> 
> The other reason for Moscow ordering peaceful capture of nuclear power stations may be to take control of stocks of spent uranium fuel to pre-empt a future Ukrainian government from using them to make nuclear bombs. In any case, the moderation in Russian military operations is to minimize the offence given to native Ukrainians and to wait out/wear out the armed nationalist elements among them, rather than go in for wholesale slaughter of the population and destruction of cities. In this context, the Ukrainian resistance, while brave, is ultimately hopeless and is potentially useful only as a bargaining card for the Zelensky regime to play in the ongoing negotiations with Russia in Belarus.
> 
> The Russian forces in Ukraine, have, from the beginning, faced a tactical dilemma that’s not unlike what the Indian Army units, perhaps, faced when advancing on the “princely kingdom” of Hyderabad with the intent to amalgamate it into the Indian Union. The Nizam, Mir Osman Ali Khan, was determined on having a sovereign country right in the middle of peninsular India. His representative, the British barrister Walter Monckton, spent over a year negotiating with the home ministry under the no-nonsense Vallabhbhai Patel. ‘Operation Polo’ was launched on 13 September 1948, only after it became obvious to the Indian government that the Nizam was buying time and using the “standstill agreement” to equip his forces with weapons ferried from Karachi in old Dakota aircraft piloted by foreign mercenaries, with a view to resisting the unification. By 17 September it was all over.
> 
> Consider the situation confronting Major General JN Chaudhuri — the commander of the Indian force tasked with taking Hyderabad but with minimum fuss. Advancing mainly along the Vijayawada and Solapur-Secunderabad axes, the Commanding Officers of the lead elements from Poona Horse and 2/5 Gurkhas from the Vijayawada side with the 19th Field Battery and two squadrons of the Hawker Tempest fighter planes, ex-Pune, in support, and of the 9 Para, 3rd Cavalry, 13th Cavalry, 3/2 Punjab and 2/1 Gurkhas on the Solapur line, must have been terrified of getting into firefights with the Nizam’s forces, especially in the built-up urban areas as that would have resulted in unacceptably high civilian casualties. This is borne out by the tactics employed of not using strike aircraft or even mortars and engaging the Nizam’s soldiery, as much as possible, on the outskirts of towns and in the countryside. Fortunately, for the Indian Army, the commander of Osman Ali’s forces, General El Edroos, an Arab, had under him the Razakar rabble, not a professional army.
> 
> Imagine an alternative scenario and assume, for argument’s sake, that the Nizam’s 66,000-strong army — 55 per cent Muslim, was backed by the majority Hindu population in his quest for an independent Hyderabad. Now consider how much more difficult and delicate the Indian Army’s job would have been. Hyderabad would, of course, have been absorbed one way or the other into India. But the Indian military actions, in that case, would have had to have been that much more cautious, with each step tenuously taken for fear, say, of a rifle company of the Gurkhas taking the _khukri_ to a terrified bunch of civilians caught in the wrong place at the wrong time, or of wayward artillery shells taking out cultural symbols and historical monuments — a Char Minar here, numerous palaces of the Nizam there, or even the Hyderabadi infrastructure the people couldn’t do without — the railways, the power station, communications systems, road transport, post, telegraph, etc.
> 
> Seen in this light, one gets an inkling of just how unmanageable the situation can get for an army working under such constraints, and understand the impossible circumstances of the Russian land forces in Ukraine. And why they are moving and fighting so gingerly in the worst kind of mission that a conventional military can be asked to undertake.
> 
> For Russia, Ukraine is a site for an onerous ‘police action’; it is not a battlefield where anything goes.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian forces' actions in Ukraine show a dilemma like Indian Army's in 1948 Hyderabad ops
> 
> 
> There's a reason Putin's army in Ukraine is stumbling and bumbling. It's unlike Stalin's Red Army against the German Wehrmacht World War II.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> theprint.in


The author of that piece is either dumber than a post, or wrote that a week ago.


----------



## KevinB

More on USSR 2.0. I don't think it's having the intended effect on Ukrainians as was thought...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501907354069176320


----------



## KevinB

Putin is fucked - Dr. Strange is supporting the UKR

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501877998378786817


----------



## KevinB

Whoops...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501900335580917761


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

KevinB said:


> They have done well (relatively) in the South.
> 
> Let's face it - if the ground was frozen, it would be a completely different story.
> 
> Longer convoys?
> 
> You can only push so much material down roadways - when the shoulders are a bog.   Most of the rural roads will not support much more than a soft skin truck.  So they are stuck to major hi ways - and other paved - or solid dry roadways.
> The multi prong axis of advances forced the UA to spread out - and not fully support some areas -- you will see that they effectively sacrificed the South to pull CS elements to defend Kyiv.


It did Force the Ukrainians to spread out but as always, Defence usually has the advantage over offence.  The problem with spreading out is it compounds logistics issues, especially on a Country so dependent on rail and with limited trucks.

A single supply line is easier to defend than dispersed supply lines.

"Economy of Effort" 😉



KevinB said:


> The utter lack of C2, lack of Air Support in any serious quantity outside the Southern Areas, and open comms and jammed navigation was debilitating - with the fact that maintenance and supplies seem to have been poorly managed (if at all).
> 
> But yeah - it is equally clear that earlier in OIF/OEF a lot of Western Units (and entire National Contingents) had some major issues - from competency to maintenance, to supplies.
> Also some units had extreme moral issues -- when I was in Iraq I was constantly shocked by seeing troops either getting ready to go out on convoys or driving down the roads with earphones in listening to music - as they had resigned themselves that they where going to get ambushed regardless if they where paying attention or not.   Conducting training for some units I was equally disgusted with the proficiency of their NCO's and Officers, and troop basic shooting ability - and the inability for a lot of CS personnel to actually conduct fire and movement.
> 
> We have also seen certain units (cough R22eR) who will sell fuel to locals, etc, so before we totally cast all the shade on the RF forces, try to put yourself in their shoes -- most of them are conscripted (sorry Vlad you are full of shit) their living conditions suck, they are told jack and shit - and it doesn't get much better until one is either a specialist SNCO position (and then again not particularly awesome either) or a Senior Officer.  Toss in your senior officers are stealing from your unit, because they see their higher elements doing it too.


It's problems for any Army or any soldier.  I can think of mistakes I've made myself on relatively low intensity operations that in hindsight were really stupid (nobody was there to film it with a drone 😉 so I can't be ridiculed by the Twitter mob).  

Thankfully the stakes weren't as high so I was able to learn from them.


----------



## Weinie

KevinB said:


> Whoops...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501900335580917761


It’s funny now, but I had got so conditioned to seeing things go bang in these type of vids that when I was in a SCIF several years ago watching a PED feed, I kept anticipating the boom,and only realized that after about 20 minutes.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> More on USSR 2.0. I don't think it's having the intended effect on Ukrainians as was thought...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501907354069176320


And that's video from an OFFICIAL RUS MoD video, so the info-machine did NOT edit those bits out.  

Caught this from a BBC'ite embedded w/UKR troops around Kharkiv ....


> ... From the front passenger seat Lt Gromadsky says, "Sometimes they use this tactic - first, they raise a white flag above their equipment, then come closer to our positions. When we come up and kind of take them as prisoners of war, they start to open fire on our troops." ....


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> It did Force the Ukrainians to spread out but as always, Defence usually has the advantage over offence.  The problem with spreading out is it compounds logistics issues, especially on a Country so dependent on rail and with limited trucks.
> 
> A single supply line is easier to defend than dispersed supply lines.
> 
> "Economy of Effort" 😉
> 
> 
> It's problems for any Army or any soldier.  I can think of mistakes I've made myself on relatively low intensity operations that in hindsight were really stupid (nobody was there to film it with a drone 😉 so I can't be ridiculed by the Twitter mob).
> 
> Thankfully the stakes weren't as high so I was able to learn from them.




I have also made some colossal errors, and am alive more due to dumb luck in more than 1 situation.


----------



## KevinB

Maybe they lost the keys? 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501965708674093058


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

KevinB said:


> I have also made some colossal errors, and am alive more due to dumb luck in more than 1 situation.


I remember my former CO showing us video footage of a stroll in an Afghan village he decided to take his Coy HQ through while his Platoons patrolled along the flanks.  

Immediately engaged point blank by some Taliban who spotted his small element and thought they looked like a tasty treat.  

His words "this is me blind firing over a mud wall because they were laying down some pretty good suppressive fire, not my finest moment"

He is highly decorated and was an incredibly talented Officer but even the best make errors in the fog of war.  

He then said by "sheer stroke of luck, nobody was killed, but I learned a valuable lesson that day".

Self-reflection is an under valued quality in our society.


----------



## KevinB

I've been "limited" on Twitter

Apparently telling the Russian Military to go F itself and Drink as Much Bleach as possible, violates their rules



Figure if Russian Military  @mfa_russia can still tweet, I should be able to tell them to go to hell and worse everyday they still have an account.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> ... Self-reflection is an under valued quality in our society.


Toooooo true, and also true about "feces occur" even in the best militaries & individuals therein.

That said, even if we believe only 1/3 of what's being flung out there across the Twitter-verse, RUS seems to be dropping the ball more than one might expect.  Then again, we're generally hearing about RUS own goals, and next to none from the UKR side - and as good as they may be, they're made up of fallible-sometimes-too humans, too.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> I've been "limited" on Twitter
> 
> Apparently telling the Russian Military to go F itself and Drink as Much Bleach as possible, violates their rules
> View attachment 69371
> View attachment 69372
> 
> Figure if Russian Military  @mfa_russia can still tweet, I should be Abe to tell them to go to hell and worse everyday they still have an account.


Well done, bud!


----------



## Prairie canuck

Where's Joe?

I'm increasingly concerned with the physical and mental health of Joe Biden. Based on what I've seen and heard of him in the media his inability to think and speak clearly and his physical state are telling and very much weakened from a year ago. His recent trend of taking long absences from public appearances is even more concerning considering NATO may be on the verge of a major conflict.  
I have no doubt Kamala is an intelligent and competent VP but I am concerned that her skills are lacking when it comes to international affairs and being a wartime president.


----------



## KevinB

Prairie canuck said:


> Where's Joe?
> 
> I'm increasingly concerned with the physical and mental health of Joe Biden. Based on what I've seen and heard of him in the media his inability to think and speak clearly and his physical state are telling and very much weakened from a year ago. His recent trend of taking long absences from public appearances is even more concerning considering NATO may be on the verge of a major conflict.
> I have no doubt Kamala is an intelligent and competent VP but I am concerned that her skills are lacking when it comes to international affairs and being a wartime president.


You didn’t look clearly a year ago if you think this is recent.  
   Don’t look for us for guidance, we are asleep at the wheel.  
   The other passengers in the car is equally afflicted.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501972081373859844
Ukrainian counter attacks underway in Kyiv and Kharkiv


----------



## Prairie canuck

KevinB said:


> You didn’t look clearly a year ago if you think this is recent.
> Don’t look for us for guidance, we are asleep at the wheel.
> The other passengers in the car is equally afflicted.


I did notice some decline a year ago but it certainly seems to be getting worse.  I suspect it's why Kamala is in Europe and not Joe.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501879187640135688


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501986292099424264
Twitter taking action


----------



## daftandbarmy

Counter-snipers wanted, I'm guessing....

'Hand-to-hand combat': Street battles rage on Kyiv's edge​
"The Russians are positioning themselves in residential buildings, apartments, shops," said soldier Konstantyn Lokhmitskiy.

"After that, they started shooting exclusively at civilians," the 38-year-old alleged.

"I also fought. This is my third war. But this never used to happen," Lokhmitsky said. "No one shot at civilians back then."









						'Hand-to-hand combat': Street battles rage on Kyiv's edge
					

Street battles and hand-to-hand combat. Ukrainian servicemen and fleeing residents described ferocious fighting on Kyiv's northwestern edge Monday that could soon spread to the besieged capital.




					www.france24.com


----------



## KevinB

Russia Bombards Ukraine Cities and Accuses U.S. of ‘Economic War’
					

Misery deepened in Ukraine, where millions of people were caught in besieged cities, and in Russia, where the West’s economic sanctions were biting hard.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

In the last year of two of his presidency the Gipper was a fading light and things turned out ok.  Bush the Younger was more experienced for certain than Harris but that is why you build a team in depth as well as width.


----------



## KevinB

Human tragedies continue past the Ukrainian border.  Not sure I agree (I don't at all)  with the slant to the article though...








						The Ukraine war is ‘potentially apocalyptic’ for Afghanistan’s hungry.
					






					www.nytimes.com


----------



## KevinB

‘Bombs are falling in Mariupol all the time’: Russia presses on with its siege of the beleaguered city.
					






					www.nytimes.com


----------



## KevinB

More on the Russian BS about Bio/Chem








						Accusations fly over Russian disinformation about biological weapons.
					






					www.nytimes.com


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501991946851655684


----------



## KevinB

Proof some people do have a good heart.








						Some hotels in Poland have doubled their prices, but at the Hotel Duet refugees stay for free.
					






					www.nytimes.com


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502008279173677063


----------



## Quirky

Prairie canuck said:


> Where's Joe?
> 
> I'm increasingly concerned with the physical and mental health of Joe Biden. Based on what I've seen and heard of him in the media his inability to think and speak clearly and his physical state are telling and very much weakened from a year ago. His recent trend of taking long absences from public appearances is even more concerning considering NATO may be on the verge of a major conflict.
> I have no doubt Kamala is an intelligent and competent VP but I am concerned that her skills are lacking when it comes to international affairs and being a wartime president.


I can't think of a worse duo to steer the ship at this particular moment. It's almost as if Putin saw the weakness and decided to attack....


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Altair said:


> This is true, but NATO/USA wouldnt be this level of incompetent either.



Just remember...we're possibly only seeing the "bloopers" reel on one side only...not that the one we're seeing is impressive, though.


----------



## KevinB

Eye In The Sky said:


> Just remember...we're possibly only seeing the "bloopers" reel on one side only...not that the one we're seeing is impressive, though.


True - -but if you want a good chuckle...








						Russia’s Military, Once Creaky, Is Modern and Lethal
					

A significantly upgraded military has emerged as a key tool of Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy, as he flexes his might around the globe and, most ominously, on the Ukraine border.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502012138897948676


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502012138897948676


I'm getting the distinct impression the Russians don't care we read their mail as they write it...
   Do they see it as intimidation, or just careless?


----------



## Altair

Eye In The Sky said:


> Just remember...we're possibly only seeing the "bloopers" reel on one side only...not that the one we're seeing is impressive, though.


If these bloopers were coming out while Kiev was encircled, kharkiv captured, and Russian forces achieving breakthroughs all over the country, then I think it would be fair to say that bloopers are not indicative of the state of the russian military.

But with the russians failing to make the gains everyone expected, i think its fair to say that these bloopers reinforce what the strategic maps have shown, the Russian military have had some major challenges, not just from the Ukrainians, but from their own military effectiveness.


----------



## KevinB

Interesting article, with some concerning tones towards what the future may hold.









						Opinion | They Predicted the Ukraine War. But Did They Still Get It Wrong?
					

What Putin’s invasion has revealed about realism and idealism in foreign policy.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Weinie said:


> It’s funny now, but I had got so conditioned to seeing things go bang in these type of vids that when I was in a SCIF several years ago watching a PED feed, I kept anticipating the boom,and only realized that after about 20 minutes.



It's a different, but comfortable way to do the business...  #WarPizza&FrenchPressJava  #Pants, Stretchy,Combat


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501953203029618689
Uh oh.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

WAIT WAIT WAIT!!!!!!





__





						Christie Brinkley Warns Of Potential For Worldwide Nuclear Danger In Russian Invasion Of Ukraine
					





					www.msn.com
				




In addition to being one of the all-time great supermodels, Brinkley currently serves as vice president of the Radiation and Public Health Project


----------



## OldSolduer

Eye In The Sky said:


> WAIT WAIT WAIT!!!!!!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Christie Brinkley Warns Of Potential For Worldwide Nuclear Danger In Russian Invasion Of Ukraine
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.msn.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In addition to being one of the all-time great supermodels, Brinkley currently serves as vice president of the Radiation and Public Health Project


Wow she has aged well. I would too if I had a dietician (I'd probably ignore them), a plastic surgeon ( I might) or a personal trainer (I'd pay attention). 

One question: Is she qualified to actually run this organization?


----------



## Good2Golf

> As Brinkley wrote, it was "nothing short of a miraculous stroke of luck" that the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant — the largest of its kind in Europe — had avoided a "massive meltdown" when it caught fire due to shelling from Russian troops.



Actually there is reasonable evidence that an out-building was targeted deliberately to send the message from Putin to Zelensky that there’s more come if UKR doesn’t surrender…


----------



## KevinB

Eye In The Sky said:


> WAIT WAIT WAIT!!!!!!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Christie Brinkley Warns Of Potential For Worldwide Nuclear Danger In Russian Invasion Of Ukraine
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.msn.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In addition to being one of the all-time great supermodels, Brinkley currently serves as vice president of the Radiation and Public Health Project


and she's still hot.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502012138897948676


Notice how the west is saying be warned of a russian chemical or biological attack but not that they would intervene if Russia commited a chemical or biological attack.

#NoRedLines


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Notice how the west is saying be warned of a russian chemical or biological attack but not that they would intervene if Russia commited a chemical or biological attack.
> 
> #NoRedLines


US Doctrine to respond to Chem/Bio attacks is a Nuclear strike on the offender...

Just saying


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> US Doctrine to respond to Chem/Bio attacks is a Nuclear strike on the offender...
> 
> Just saying


For NATO members.

They just sit around and watch if its Syria...or Ukraine.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> For NATO members.
> 
> They just sit around and watch if its Syria...or Ukraine.


Good point - or Iranians (Sadam) or Iraqi's (Sadam) etc...


----------



## OldSolduer

KevinB said:


> Good point - or Iranians (Sadam) or Iraqi's (Sadam) etc...


In those two cases I am not shedding any tears.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Good point - or Iranians (Sadam) or Iraqi's (Sadam) etc...


Yeah, Ukraine had better stock up on CBRN gear. The west will act shocked when it happens, appauled even.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

I know the tendency is call out NATO:    What is NATO?

Security in our daily lives is key to our well-being. NATO’s purpose is to guarantee the freedom and security of its members through political and military means.

*MILITARY* - NATO is committed to the peaceful resolution of disputes. If diplomatic efforts fail, it has the military power to undertake crisis-management operations. These are carried out under the collective defence clause of NATO's founding treaty - Article 5 of the Washington Treaty or under a United Nations mandate, alone or in cooperation with other countries and international organisations.

So;  why is no one pointing the bigger finger at the UN?  I know, personally, I do.  

Remember how long it took for the UN to react to the invasion of Kuwait?  Invasion of Kuwait - Wikipedia


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Yeah, Ukraine had better stock up on CBRN gear. The west will act shocked when it happens, appauled even.


I believe a lot of countries have pushed a lot of masks and suits already -- because Russia...


----------



## OldSolduer

Eye In The Sky said:


> I know the tendency is call out NATO:    What is NATO?
> 
> Security in our daily lives is key to our well-being. NATO’s purpose is to guarantee the freedom and security of its members through political and military means.
> 
> *MILITARY* - NATO is committed to the peaceful resolution of disputes. If diplomatic efforts fail, it has the military power to undertake crisis-management operations. These are carried out under the collective defence clause of NATO's founding treaty - Article 5 of the Washington Treaty or under a United Nations mandate, alone or in cooperation with other countries and international organisations.
> 
> So;  why is no one pointing the bigger finger at the UN?  I know, personally, I do.
> 
> Remember how long it took for the UN to react to the invasion of Kuwait?  Invasion of Kuwait - Wikipedia


Shirley you jest - and I will stop calling you Shirley lol

The vaunted UN has been a morally bankrupt - actually less than bankrupt since bankruptcy can see a way up - and extremely corrupt organization since,,,,1990?


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> I believe a lot of countries have pushed a lot of masks and suits already -- because Russia...


Millions of Ukrainians, thousands of masks and suits.

Math doesnt add up.


----------



## OldSolduer

Deploying and employing CBRN assets can - is - a double edged sword. Anyone that thinks otherwise is a fool.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

OldSolduer said:


> Shirley you jest - and I will stop calling you Shirley lol
> 
> The vaunted UN has been a morally bankrupt - actually less than bankrupt since bankruptcy can see a way up - and extremely corrupt organization since,,,,1990?



Agreed 100%.  My own thoughts on the UN will never recover from the Rwanda disaster.

The masses seem to be "fists on hips" at NATO.  I think that contempt should be directed at the UN, who is likely all too happy to sit back and watch NATO take the heat.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Millions of Ukrainians, thousands of masks and suits.
> 
> Math doesnt add up.


It never does sadly...


----------



## OldSolduer

Eye In The Sky said:


> Agreed 100%.  My own thoughts on the UN will never recover from the Rwanda disaster.
> 
> The masses seem to be "fists on hips" at NATO.  I think that contempt should be directed at the UN, who is likely all too happy to sit back and watch NATO take the heat.


I cannot disagree with you - we knew the UN was corrupt prior to Rwanda. I was in the FRY in 1993. The "peacekeepers" were often worse than the combatants.


----------



## Altair

Eye In The Sky said:


> Agreed 100%.  My own thoughts on the UN will never recover from the Rwanda disaster.
> 
> The masses seem to be "fists on hips" at NATO.  I think that contempt should be directed at the UN, who is likely all too happy to sit back and watch NATO take the heat.


The UN is well aware of its own limitations. Russia has a veto.

NATO has no such limitations, it could do something if it wanted go. It doesn't want to.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Altair said:


> The UN is well aware of its own limitations. Russia has a veto.
> 
> NATO has no such limitations, it could do something if it wanted go. It doesn't want to.



Go back and read the NATO stuff I posted.


----------



## Altair

Eye In The Sky said:


> Go back and read the NATO stuff I posted.


The part where NATO can act under a United Nations mandate?


----------



## Eye In The Sky

NATO’s purpose is to guarantee the freedom and security of its members.










						Our Work | United Nations
					

The United Nations is part of the UN system, which is made up of  the UN itself and many funds, programmes, specialized agencies, and other organizations. Together they work towards Maintaining International Peace and Security;  Protecting Human Rights; Delivering Humanitarian Aid; Supporting...




					www.un.org


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Eye In The Sky said:


> NATO’s purpose is to guarantee the freedom and security of its members.





Eye In The Sky said:


> Our Work | United Nations
> 
> 
> The United Nations is part of the UN system, which is made up of  the UN itself and many funds, programmes, specialized agencies, and other organizations. Together they work towards Maintaining International Peace and Security;  Protecting Human Rights; Delivering Humanitarian Aid; Supporting...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.un.org











						Maintain International Peace and Security | United Nations
					

The UN Security Council has the primary responsibility for international peace and security. The General Assembly and the Secretary-General play major, important, and complementary roles, along with other UN offices and bodies.




					www.un.org


----------



## KevinB

Meet the U.S. fighters who are bound for Ukraine.
					






					www.nytimes.com


----------



## KevinB

Eye In The Sky said:


> Maintain International Peace and Security | United Nations
> 
> 
> The UN Security Council has the primary responsibility for international peace and security. The General Assembly and the Secretary-General play major, important, and complementary roles, along with other UN offices and bodies.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.un.org


NATO was quite happy to bomb Serbia during the FYR issues - and go into Kosovo in a Non Article 5 mission.

I would argue that the situation in the Ukraine is a global humanitarian crisis, and Russian aggression threatens the safety and security of the NATO nations.


----------



## lenaitch

daftandbarmy said:


> What we need is a good proxy Air Force.
> 
> Where's the 'Blackwater Air Force' when you need them?
> 
> Oh, wait:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Blackwater Founder Wants To Provide A "Turn Key" Mercenary Air Force For Afghanistan
> 
> 
> But the new proposal from infamous Erik Prince could immediately face legal and logistical problems.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedrive.com


Didn't Australia just sell a whole whack of F-18s to a private US 'collector'?


KevinB said:


> More on USSR 2.0. I don't think it's having the intended effect on Ukrainians as was thought...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501907354069176320


'V' markings instead of 'Z'.  Dated clip or am I missing something are vehicle markings?


----------



## Altair

Eye In The Sky said:


> NATO’s purpose is to guarantee the freedom and security of its members.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Our Work | United Nations
> 
> 
> The United Nations is part of the UN system, which is made up of  the UN itself and many funds, programmes, specialized agencies, and other organizations. Together they work towards Maintaining International Peace and Security;  Protecting Human Rights; Delivering Humanitarian Aid; Supporting...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.un.org


So NATO defends its members, UN cant act due to Russian veto.

Ukraine suffers.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Eye In The Sky said:


> I know the tendency is call out NATO:    What is NATO?
> 
> Security in our daily lives is key to our well-being. NATO’s purpose is to guarantee the freedom and security of its members through political and military means.
> 
> *MILITARY* - NATO is committed to the peaceful resolution of disputes. If diplomatic efforts fail, it has the military power to undertake crisis-management operations. These are carried out under the collective defence clause of NATO's founding treaty - Article 5 of the Washington Treaty or under a United Nations mandate, alone or in cooperation with other countries and international organisations.
> 
> So;  why is no one pointing the bigger finger at the UN?  I know, personally, I do.
> 
> Remember how long it took for the UN to react to the invasion of Kuwait?  Invasion of Kuwait - Wikipedia


Does a UN mandate need a Security Council vote?  If so, given the main belligerent has a veto, I know why no egg'll come out of that chicken.  And since NATO has had a chance to undertake crisis-management operations, and appears not to have done so yet (like they did in the Yugo mess), am I missing something?


----------



## Eye In The Sky

KevinB said:


> NATO was quite happy to bomb Serbia during the FYR issues - and go into Kosovo in a Non Article 5 mission.
> 
> I would argue that the situation in the Ukraine is a global humanitarian crisis, and Russian aggression threatens the safety and security of the NATO nations.



FYR was "UN first" and then NATO went in after another UN bongle job.  IIRC, basically the NATO mission was US-lead and commanded;  "we will go in but not under the clusterfuck CofC that exists now" (my summary).  I might be remembering incorrectly...

I don't disagree with you on the humanitarian crisis or the safety/security of NATO nations.

Re: "the UN";  people are pointing at NATO.  They should be pointing at the UN, forcing change there.

The UNGA vote was a majority but also "non-binding".  Non-binding doesn't mean impossible.  If the UN is that inept...disband it.

Biden should be President of the UN...not the USA IMO.  As the "leader of the free world", I see a mumbling, stumbling, might-need-Depends old man who should be playing cards at a retirement villa.


----------



## PuckChaser

Ukraine reports those markings as Marines units:

Z (military symbol) - Wikipedia


----------



## blacktriangle

PuckChaser said:


> Ukraine reports those markings as Marines units:
> 
> Z (military symbol) - Wikipedia


Interesting, I had always figured Z was for _Zapad _(West) and V was for _Vostok _(East).


----------



## QV

KevinB said:


> I've been "limited" on Twitter
> 
> Apparently telling the Russian Military to go F itself and Drink as Much Bleach as possible, violates their rules
> View attachment 69371
> View attachment 69372
> 
> Figure if Russian Military  @mfa_russia can still tweet, I should be able to tell them to go to hell and worse everyday they still have an account.


You and 45 are in good company.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Altair said:


> So NATO defends its members, UN cant act due to Russian veto.
> 
> Ukraine suffers.



That's a pretty accurate BLUF Ops Summary.  😞


----------



## OceanBonfire

> “International legion volunteers are usually kept together for logistics purposes as it is easier for communication, to avoid language barriers,”
> 
> ...
> 
> Borys Wrzesnewskyj, a former Liberal MP who is helping Ukrainian diplomats organize volunteers for the International Legion, said his rough estimate is that at least 1,000 Canadians have applied to join the force.











						Exclusive: So many Canadian fighters in Ukraine, they have their own battalion, source says
					

The International Legion for the Territorial Defence of Ukraine says the 550 would-be fighters from Canada are based in Kyiv




					nationalpost.com


----------



## suffolkowner

953 tanks/combat vehicles
718 special military vehicles
89 combat aircraft
57 helicopters
93 drones
351 artillery weapons and mortars
8 navy vessels
Ukrainian losses as claimed by Russia via interfax

kind of a running tally of some of my thoughts on this war

1. Russia waited too long to attack allowing Western allies to surge enough Stingers, Javelins and NLAWS 
2. Russia waited too long to attack and missed their weather window forcing the bulk of the fighting force too stick to roads where they were vulnerable to the above and Ukrainian comparables
3. Russian logistics were strained by the long buildup and forces were sent in with inadequate support and supplies. This continues to be a problem with food, fuel, and comms
4. Russian supplies were limited due to the expectation of easy progress through Ukrainian resistance based on poor intel with respect to Ukrainian fighting will and ability
5. Russian troops in contact appear to have poor morale and training and little desire to contact the enemy outside of Russian artillery partially due to the obvious falsehood of internal Russian propaganda regarding the mission
6. Russian equipment is in poor shape compounding logistics and troop fighting spirit
7. Russian wasted opportunities with their Airborne insertions with poor planning and executions crippling the ability to deliver mission objectives
8. Russian military units appear to be operating independently and not in concert not only on the ground but with little air support
9. Lack of precision guided munitions has hampered Russian miitary efforts both in the ability to deliver effects and destroy objectives but also by forcing Russian aircraft into MANPAD engagement zones resulting in heavy losses
10. The heavy logistical constraints of Russian fighter jets constrains sortie rates and reduced pilot training time resulting in small and limited missions
11. Due to a variety of the above factors Russia has been unable to eliminate not only Ukrainian air defences but also its fighter jets and TB2 resulting in the Ukrainians continuing to deliver effects both in and from the air domain
12. Ukrainian propaganda/social media utilization has been dominant and far superior to Russian efforts and has I think clearly contributed to Western response


----------



## MilEME09

Ukraine war: On the front line of the battle for Kharkiv
					

Quentin Sommerville and cameraman Darren Conway are with Ukrainian forces fighting to stop the Russian advance on the country's second city.



					www.bbc.com
				




Another war crime, faking surrender


----------



## Kirkhill

Assessment



			https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2022/03/10/assessing_the_russian_army_performance_after_one_week_of_war_821037.html


----------



## Jarnhamar

MilEME09 said:


> Ukraine war: On the front line of the battle for Kharkiv
> 
> 
> Quentin Sommerville and cameraman Darren Conway are with Ukrainian forces fighting to stop the Russian advance on the country's second city.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Another war crime, faking surrender


Didn't the Germans start shooting surrendering Russian soldiers because the Russians were using this tactic?


----------



## Kirkhill

Starting to break through.

Small protests (some bigger than others) across Russia

Mothers confronting regional Governor over having their sons dragged off to Ukraine to be "used"

"Celebrities" appearing on prime time Kremlin propaganda shows, hosted by Vlad's pals, comparing Ukraine to Afghanistan unfavourably (better weapons handling skills) and saying the best course is to stop and retreat.

Serving soldier on Zvezda, the Russian Armed Forces own propaganda outlet, saying that the kids and the Special Forces are dying in Ukraine and that the war should stop.  And having the host, again in prime time, go into a rage and tell the soldier he is lying.  The Russians are killing Nazis in the name of a Russian Renaissance.











						Russian state television goes off message by broadcasting criticism of war
					

Normally a loyal source of pro-Kremlin propaganda, Russia 1 broadcasts guests describing the invasion as like ‘Afghanistan, but even worse’




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## SupersonicMax

Eye In The Sky said:


> I know the tendency is call out NATO:    What is NATO?
> 
> Security in our daily lives is key to our well-being. NATO’s purpose is to guarantee the freedom and security of its members through political and military means.
> 
> *MILITARY* - NATO is committed to the peaceful resolution of disputes. If diplomatic efforts fail, it has the military power to undertake crisis-management operations. These are carried out under the collective defence clause of NATO's founding treaty - Article 5 of the Washington Treaty or under a United Nations mandate, alone or in cooperation with other countries and international organisations.
> 
> So;  why is no one pointing the bigger finger at the UN?  I know, personally, I do.
> 
> Remember how long it took for the UN to react to the invasion of Kuwait?  Invasion of Kuwait - Wikipedia


Well, to be fair, NATO intervened in Kosovo without a UN mandate.


----------



## Spencer100

A cdn sniper joined the fight. 









						One of world's deadliest snipers leaves home in Canada to fight in Ukraine: 'I have to help'
					

A Canadian known as one of the world’s deadliest snipers arrived to Ukraine to help the nation defend itself from Russia.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## OldSolduer

Spencer100 said:


> A cdn sniper joined the fight.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> One of world's deadliest snipers leaves home in Canada to fight in Ukraine: 'I have to help'
> 
> 
> A Canadian known as one of the world’s deadliest snipers arrived to Ukraine to help the nation defend itself from Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.foxnews.com


Well maybe the Russian officers need to keep their heads down.


----------



## Altair

Kirkhill said:


> Assessment
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2022/03/10/assessing_the_russian_army_performance_after_one_week_of_war_821037.html


I have it on good authority that Russia has a military academy.


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502041639849766915


----------



## Altair

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502041639849766915


Russian soldiers withdrawing, warnings of chemical attacks...

Oh boy.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Altair said:


> I have it on good authority that Russia has a military academy.


Key point at the end of the article you failed to read:

"Before drawing final conclusions on the Russian military performance, it will be imperative to fully understand the impacts of the unique conditions in this war. One should always be cautious about underestimating the enemy."

I'm sure you've got extensive operations and staff experience to validate that mouth of yours though 😉


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Russian soldiers withdrawing, warnings of chemical attacks...
> 
> Oh boy.


Bingo


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

KevinB said:


> Bingo


I only wonder what the weapon of choice will be? Nerve Agent or something else?


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I only wonder what the weapon of choice will be? Nerve Agent or something else?


Depends what's the temperature right now? That would factor in, in winter I'd say chemical not biological


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> Depends what's the temperature right now? That would factor in, in winter I'd say chemical not biological


... until the first cases of cholera kick in if seiges continue, which will be blamed on UKR provocations/US-funded biolabs/nationalists/Banderists ....


----------



## suffolkowner

Spencer100 said:


> A cdn sniper joined the fight.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> One of world's deadliest snipers leaves home in Canada to fight in Ukraine: 'I have to help'
> 
> 
> A Canadian known as one of the world’s deadliest snipers arrived to Ukraine to help the nation defend itself from Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.foxnews.com


should make sure they're outfitted properly








						LRT-3 - PGW Defence Technologies Inc.
					

Base price includes: Rifle, muzzle brake, 3/9 o'clock picatinny rails, fitted hard case, bore guide, cleaning rod and kit, 1 magazine, and user manual. *OPTIC AND BIPOD PICTURED BUT NOT INCLUDED IN BASE PRICE*  Available for Military and Law Enforcement only.




					pgwdti.com
				






Altair said:


> Russian soldiers withdrawing, warnings of chemical attacks...
> 
> Oh boy.


Russia still fighting the Russian way

indiscriminate bombings and missile attacks on schools and hospitals
shooting civilians
fake surrendering

might as well add a CBRN to the list

all this is going to do is keep public pressure and interest up in favour of continuing to supply Ukraine with the tools to fight back

I'm not in favour of NATO directly entering the war but support everything up to it. I wouldn't oppose direct NATO involvement either


----------



## MilEME09

Altair said:


> Russian soldiers withdrawing, warnings of chemical attacks...
> 
> Oh boy.


A) CBRN attack

B) Russian General goes rouge, says f*ck it, I'm not letting kore of my men die for this, packs it up and heads home

C) Russian General goes rouge and takes his troops to Moscow to attempt a Coup


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> A) CBRN attack
> 
> B) Russian General goes rouge, says f*ck it, I'm not letting kore of my men die for this, packs it up and heads home
> 
> C) Russian General goes rouge and takes his troops to Moscow to attempt a Coup


Rouge or Rogue?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

MilEME09 said:


> A) CBRN attack
> 
> B) Russian General goes rouge, says f*ck it, I'm not letting kore of my men die for this, packs it up and heads home
> 
> C) Russian General goes rouge and takes his troops to Moscow to attempt a Coup


D) B and C


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I only wonder what the weapon of choice will be? Nerve Agent or something else?











						Satellite imagery shows the redeployment of a large Russian convoy near Kyiv, but little advance.
					






					www.nytimes.com
				




Several reported minor withdrawals.


----------



## Weinie

KevinB said:


> Rouge or Rogue?


It's the former Red Army.


----------



## KevinB

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/10/world/ukraine-russia-war/facebook-and-instagram-allow-for-calls-for-violence-against-russian-soldiers-in-some-countries


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502075497991348226
Who was saying the Russians know tactics? Looks like a platoon + just walking casually across a bridge.


----------



## Altair

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Key point at the end of the article you failed to read:
> 
> "Before drawing final conclusions on the Russian military performance, it will be imperative to fully understand the impacts of the unique conditions in this war. One should always be cautious about underestimating the enemy."
> 
> I'm sure you've got extensive operations and staff experience to validate that mouth of yours though 😉


What? 

I said that I have heard that Russia has a military academy. I didn't say anything beyond that.


----------



## OldSolduer

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I only wonder what the weapon of choice will be? Nerve Agent or something else?


I`d say non peristent lethal agents. If its persistent agents the entire area will need to be decontaminated. Not an easy task.

IF and this is a MIGHTY BIG IF that Russia will use CBRN I think they can expect a very harsh response from the world.

I think bio weapons are a very poor choice as you can infect your own as well as the enemy. But that didn`t stop the Mongols from flinging dead Mongols into cities they were besieging.


----------



## Dana381

OldSolduer said:


> I`d say non peristent lethal agents. If its persistent agents the entire area will need to be decontaminated. Not an easy task.
> 
> IF and this is a MIGHTY BIG IF that Russia will use CBRN I think they can expect a very harsh response from the world.
> 
> *I think bio weapons are a very poor choice as you can infect your own as well as the enemy*. But that didn`t stop the Mongols from flinging dead Mongols into cities they were besieging.



Or the British from giving the natives blankets with smallpox


----------



## MilEME09

OldSolduer said:


> I`d say non peristent lethal agents. If its persistent agents the entire area will need to be decontaminated. Not an easy task.
> 
> IF and this is a MIGHTY BIG IF that Russia will use CBRN I think they can expect a very harsh response from the world.
> 
> I think bio weapons are a very poor choice as you can infect your own as well as the enemy. But that didn`t stop the Mongols from flinging dead Mongols into cities they were besieging.


Actually I'd suspect a persistent agent more, Russia has limited man power, using persistent agents to create red zones where the enemy wouldn't want to go through means they can concentrate forces better.


----------



## OldSolduer

Dana381 said:


> Or the British from giving the natives blankets with smallpox


I don`t think the Russkies will be handing out blankets to Ukranians any time soon....


----------



## Dana381

OldSolduer said:


> I don`t think the Russkies will be handing out blankets to Ukranians any time soon....



They are also unlikely to fling dead Russians at the Ukanians, If we see catapults heading to the front lines we will know what they are up to!


----------



## Retired AF Guy

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501938378878558220





Jarnhamar said:


> Didn't the Germans start shooting surrendering Russian soldiers because the Russians were using this tactic?


And American, British and Canadian soldiers did the same thing when the Germans employed the same tactics.


----------



## OldSolduer

Dana381 said:


> They are also unlikely to fling dead Russians at the Ukanians, If we see catapults heading to the front lines we will know what they are up to!


Now that is funny. Gives bring out yer dead a whole new meaning


----------



## KevinB

More than 80,000 people have been evacuated from areas near Kyiv and the city of Sumy.
					






					www.nytimes.com


----------



## dapaterson

Ukrainian anti-corruption agency expresses its thanks to the Russian military.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501993906946379780


----------



## Dana381

KevinB said:


> More than 80,000 people have been evacuated from areas near Kyiv and the city of Sumy.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com


I'm not sure if you realize that your NY times links are behind a paywall.


----------



## Prairie canuck

Winds right now from the NW switching to from the NE tomorrow. (I imagine that matters)


----------



## The Bread Guy

One man's evacuation is another man's "get in, we're headed to Russia - don't care where you want to go" (RUS state media) ....


> The Russian military has said it will not wait for Kiev to get on board with its proposal for evacuation routes, and will ensure safe passage of civilians from Kiev, Kharkiv, Mariupol and other Ukrainian cities to Russia ...


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> One man's evacuation is another man's "get in, we're headed to Russia - don't care where you want to go" (RUS state media) ....


But only of they go to Russia for re-education


----------



## The Bread Guy

This via FB from UKR's nuke energy regulator (in Ukrainian - Google English below)


> Once again, the Russian Federation has committed an act of nuclear terrorism !!! In the evening of March 10, 2022, the aggressor country once again bombed a research nuclear installation - the nuclear subcritical installation Neutron Source, based on a subcritical assembly controlled by a linear electron accelerator (hereinafter - YAPU "Source of Neutrons" Center "Kharkiv Institute of Physics and Technology" (Kharkov). According to preliminary information, the Source of Neutrons is completely de-energized, there are superficial damages to the building. This list of injuries is not complete at this time. Currently, information on the consequences of the damage is being clarified by the staff of the Source of Neutrons. It will be recalled that on March 6, 2022, the Source of Neutrons was already bombed. As a result, the following losses were inflicted: - completely destroyed substation RU-0.4 kV; - damaged cables of air conditioner cooling systems of the enema gallery of the linear electron accelerator; - in some places there are surface damages of the main building of the installation; - damaged heating main to the complex of buildings and structures of JUPU "Source of neutrons"; - broken windows in the building of the pump and cooling towers, in the isotope laboratory. Prior to the Russian aggression, the Source of Neutrons was at the stage of physical start-up, during which the core was loaded with fresh nuclear fuel. On February 24, 2022, the unit was transferred to a deep subcritical state by the operational personnel of the Source of Neutrons. JUPU "Source of Neutrons" is created on the basis of NSC KIPT in accordance with the agreements reached at the Washington Summit, set out in the Joint Statement of the Presidents of Ukraine and the United States in April 2010 and the Memorandum of Understanding between the Governments of Ukraine and the United States. Security ", signed on September 26, 2011. The project is supported by the Argonne National Laboratory of the United States. JUPU "Source of neutrons" is designed for scientific and applied research in the field of nuclear physics, radiation materials science, biology, chemistry and for the production of medical radioisotopes.


----------



## Spencer100

Dana381 said:


> Or the British from giving the natives blankets with smallpox


Or the Chinese sending Covid around the world.



To soon?


----------



## NavyShooter

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502075497991348226
> Who was saying the Russians know tactics? Looks like a platoon + just walking casually across a bridge.



That road/bridge has concertina wire on the sides of the railings - there's no-where to hide.  It was a bit sad to see how buddy dropped his magazine when he 'dropped for cover', but basically, that kind of looks like no place to tarry when under fire.


----------



## RangerRay

TacticalTea said:


> ''It's time to for HIM to be fearful of what WE might do!''
> -Mitt Romney
> 
> Meanwhile, The socialists Ilhan Omar, AOC, and Rashida Tlaib vote with lunatics and pedophile MTG, Lauren Boebert and Matt Gaetz against Ukraine aid bill
> 
> Perhaps I could've been more neutral. Call em far-left and far-right if you'd like. At any rate, what they have in common is populism. I presume their target audience is toddlers in the ''no!'' phase.



It’s amazing how much the far left and far right overlap…


----------



## The Bread Guy

How RUS state media and fellow-traveller/amplifier sites are playing up the bio-war angle as of the past few hours ....

"US bio-laboratories in Ukraine studied bat coronavirus" (Essence of Time, pro-RUS amplifier) 
"Biolabs In Ukraine, A Smoking Gun That White House Dubbed As Fake News" (South Front, pro-RUS amplifier)
"Russian Ministry of Defence: Containers of Bat Ectoparasites Were Transferred Abroad From a Kharkov Laboratory" (Сталкер Zone, pro-RUS amplifier) 
"Russia requests Security Council meeting on US biological programs in Ukraine - diplomat" (RUS state media) 
"Zelensky denies weapons of mass destruction projects in Ukraine" (RUS state media) 
"Topic of possible chemical provocations in Ukraine coming to fore in OPCW - diplomat" (RUS state media) 
"UP-4 biological project in Ukraine: USA was building bioweapon against the Slavs" (RUS Communist Party media) 
"The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the details of the UP-4 project, which was implemented with the participation of laboratories in Kyiv, Kharkov and Odessa, and was designed for the period up to 2020, have become known ..." (Telegram: Contact @rian_ru)


----------



## The Bread Guy

An update from the Institute for the Study of War from their initial report yesterday ....




__





						Institute for the Study of War
					

Key takeaway: The Kremlin has set informational conditions to blame Ukraine for a Russian-conducted or Russian-fabricated chemical or radiological false-flag attack against civilians as a pretext for further Russian escalation. The Kremlin is likely




					www.understandingwar.org


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502101885825728514
We know the column was hit, so bad day for Russia


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> I only wonder what the weapon of choice will be? Nerve Agent or something else?


I had mentioned before that I was concerned about an attack using the same gas as what they used on the Black Widows in the Moscow Theatre attack.


----------



## Mills Bomb

The Bread Guy said:


> How RUS state media and fellow-traveller/amplifier sites are playing up the bio-war angle as of the past few hours ....
> 
> "US bio-laboratories in Ukraine studied bat coronavirus" (Essence of Time, pro-RUS amplifier)
> "Biolabs In Ukraine, A Smoking Gun That White House Dubbed As Fake News" (South Front, pro-RUS amplifier)
> "Russian Ministry of Defence: Containers of Bat Ectoparasites Were Transferred Abroad From a Kharkov Laboratory" (Сталкер Zone, pro-RUS amplifier)
> "Russia requests Security Council meeting on US biological programs in Ukraine - diplomat" (RUS state media)
> "Zelensky denies weapons of mass destruction projects in Ukraine" (RUS state media)
> "Topic of possible chemical provocations in Ukraine coming to fore in OPCW - diplomat" (RUS state media)
> "UP-4 biological project in Ukraine: USA was building bioweapon against the Slavs" (RUS Communist Party media)
> "The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the details of the UP-4 project, which was implemented with the participation of laboratories in Kyiv, Kharkov and Odessa, and was designed for the period up to 2020, have become known ..." (Telegram: Contact @rian_ru)



It's not just Russia, it's the Chinese propaganda / news also.









						China's promotion of Russian disinformation indicates where its loyalties lie
					

In public statements and at international summits, Chinese officials have attempted to stake out a seemingly neutral position on the war in Ukraine, neither condemning Russian actions nor ruling out the possibility Beijing could act as a mediator in a push for peace.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> I had mentioned before that I was concerned about an attack using the same gas as what they used on the Black Widows in the Moscow Theatre attack.


Waant that suspected to be Novachok?


Also Ukrainian counter battery on point

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502086606034980875


----------



## KevinB

Dana381 said:


> I'm not sure if you realize that your NY times links are behind a paywall.


I didn't - sorry I have a subscription.

Over 80,000 people have used humanitarian corridors to flee areas surrounding Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, and the northeastern city of Sumy in the past two days, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister, Iryna Vereshchuk, said during a news conference on Thursday.
In a video posted to her Telegram profile, Ms. Vereshchuk detailed the evacuations, saying that 60,000 civilians had evacuated in the Sumy region and roughly 20,000 others were evacuated from areas northwest of Kyiv, including Irpin, Bucha and Hostomel. An additional 3,000 people fled “with difficulty” from Izyum, a city in eastern Ukraine, she said.
Russian forces have surrounded or nearly surrounded a number of Ukrainian cities and are destroying much of their critical infrastructure, making evacuations increasingly difficult, if not impossible.
Conditions are particularly dire in the port city of Mariupol, a city of roughly half a million people that has been under siege for more than a week, with its water, electricity and food supplies cut off.
“A humanitarian disaster is ongoing in Mariupol,” Ms. Vereshchuk said.
More than 2.3 million people have fled Ukraine since Russia’s invasion began on Feb. 24, and an additional 1.9 million are displaced within the country, according to U.N. officials.
On Thursday, the U.N. spokesman Stéphane Dujarric said that as refugees are moving west, away from the front lines, the humanitarian situation “continues to deteriorate at an alarming pace.”
Show more


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> I had mentioned before that I was concerned about an attack using the same gas as what they used on the Black Widows in the Moscow Theatre attack.


Low probability IMHO do to the need for it to be concentrated - unless they dump. ton of missiles with it in.
  There are worse things they could/would use iMHO


----------



## Colin Parkinson




----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502111130638065665
I doubt the Ghost is a Penta-Ace


----------



## Dana381

This Ghost souns like Chuck norris, Has anyone seen him lately?


----------



## armrdsoul77




----------



## Kilted

suffolkowner said:


> should make sure they're outfitted properly
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> LRT-3 - PGW Defence Technologies Inc.
> 
> 
> Base price includes: Rifle, muzzle brake, 3/9 o'clock picatinny rails, fitted hard case, bore guide, cleaning rod and kit, 1 magazine, and user manual. *OPTIC AND BIPOD PICTURED BUT NOT INCLUDED IN BASE PRICE*  Available for Military and Law Enforcement only.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> pgwdti.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia still fighting the Russian way
> 
> indiscriminate bombings and missile attacks on schools and hospitals
> shooting civilians
> fake surrendering
> 
> might as well add a CBRN to the list
> 
> all this is going to do is keep public pressure and interest up in favour of continuing to supply Ukraine with the tools to fight back
> 
> I'm not in favour of NATO directly entering the war but support everything up to it. I wouldn't oppose direct NATO involvement either


The sum of all our answer is but this: We would not seek a battle, as we are; Nor, as we are, we say we will not shun it:
-Henry V, Act III, Scene VI. 
Taken a bit out of context.


----------



## Kilted

Dana381 said:


> Or the British from giving the natives blankets with smallpox


It's largely believed that that attempt was completely ineffective.


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502103582337871874
Welcome to the EU Ukraine.

Well, not quite, but on the road.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502133095851606017


----------



## Eye In The Sky

SupersonicMax said:


> Well, to be fair, NATO intervened in Kosovo without a UN mandate.



True.  But all of that started with UNPROFOR…which eventually turned into a US-led NATO effort.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

KevinB said:


> Rouge or Rogue?


 
Both!!


----------



## Eye In The Sky

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502075497991348226
> Who was saying the Russians know tactics? Looks like a platoon + just walking casually across a bridge.



Their sub-unit leadership isn’t trained like our armies are at all.   

The ground adjacent the road could be swampy mud, could have mines, booby traps, could be covered with effective fire.  The road might be the kill zone they’re forced into.   It could also be a natural “long defile” area.   Long defiles suck hardcore.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Colin Parkinson said:


>



Amazing.... they don't seem to be weighed down with ridiculous amounts of useless kit just so their bosses don't get into trouble if Soldier X doesn't happen to have a spare pair of boots in his ruck


----------



## RangerRay

daftandbarmy said:


> Amazing.... they don't seem to be weighed down with ridiculous amounts of useless kit just so their bosses don't get into trouble if Soldier X doesn't happen to have a spare pair of boots in his ruck


But, but…how can you fight the Russians without your Melmac plate in your butt-pack?


----------



## daftandbarmy

RangerRay said:


> But, but…how can you fight the Russians without your Melmac plate in your butt-pack?



I've seen that! It's not funny!


----------



## Eye In The Sky

daftandbarmy said:


> Amazing.... they don't seem to be weighed down with ridiculous amounts of useless kit just so their bosses don't get into trouble if Soldier X doesn't happen to have a spare pair of boots in his ruck



So how exactly are they supposed to know where the other soldiers spare socks are if they do not standardize their kit!!!


----------



## MilEME09

Eye In The Sky said:


> So how exactly are they supposed to know where the other soldiers spare socks are if they do not standardize their kit!!!
> 
> 
> View attachment 69387


Almost as if they are all field ready, not inspection ready...who would of thought which ones more important when bullets fly


----------



## Eye In The Sky

MilEME09 said:


> Almost as if they are all field ready, not inspection ready...who would of thought which ones more important when bullets fly



“Combat-ready units rarely pass inspections, and inspection-ready units rarely pass combat”.


----------



## KevinB

In fairness it’s a local fighting patrol, there is no need for a ton of kit when one is only going a few KM max.


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> In fairness it’s a local fighting patrol, there is no need for a ton of kit when one is only going a few KM max.



You clearly don't 'Canadian Course Cock' very much, do you?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some tidbits from the UKR DefMin's latest update late yesterday (Google English & UKR version attached - highlights mine) suggesting a shift towards "this isn't a short-term fight" and reassuring people that folks enlisting won't just be cannon fodder.


> I will not comment on arms supplies. I can say that tens of thousands of helmets and bulletproof vests, medicines and other important things are moving to Ukraine. I am in constant contact with the command of the Armed Forces. *Our army has enough fuel. But we still form additional reserves, strengthen in all possible directions. We place additional orders from our manufacturers.*





> I have already said that more than 100,000 Ukrainians have joined the ranks of defense. Also, more than 200,000 of our citizens have returned from Europe to defend their country. In addition, there are foreign volunteers who are ready to fight against Russian Nazism.  I want to appeal to all conscripted Ukrainians.  *Martial law has been declared in the state, mobilization is underway. The Armed Forces Command asks you not to lose contact. Stay in touch, don't get lost. The country needs you!  If you have moved with your family to other regions, contact your local recruitment and social support center.  No one will take unprepared people to the army and send them to the front. It doesn't make any sense. Vice versa.  Our army stops a larger enemy because it is motivated, better trained and armed.  We will not defeat Russia in numbers. We will overcome its quality.  Those who have the appropriate skills, weapons and equipment will be sent to combat units.*  Just keep in touch with the recruitment center at the place of actual residence. This is necessary not only for defense, but for the country and the economy in general. So that we understand all the possibilities and can plan.





> The war significantly affects the state of the country. This year we will produce much less and harvest less. Because we must not only liberate our fields from the enemy, we must demine them. It's time.  We will defeat Russia only if the economy works and creates appropriate opportunities for defense.  Our partners and international financial organizations have announced significant amounts of support for Ukraine. After the victory, we will quickly restore everything destroyed.  But *before we win, we have to start everything we can.  Additional production sites for defense will be deployed in Central and Western Ukraine. Also, part of the capacity will be transferred to civilian enterprises that are at risk.  I appeal to those who were forced to go to other regions - do not try to wait. Don't just count on your savings. Look for a job.  The government will do everything possible to help the regions adapt to new realities. There will be direct support programs for people. But a strong rear is the key to a strong defense. Everything that can work and develop must do so.  Get a salary, pay for utilities, if possible, try not to fall out of economic processes.*  Now special emphasis is placed on logistics. Movement not only of military cargo, but of humanitarian aid and ordinary goods. The country should not stop where possible.





> International sanctions have a strong impact on the situation in Russia. Our army is doing a great job to make the war as unpopular as possible among the Russians.  But *we must realistically assess the situation. We are approaching victory with all our might. However, no one will say for sure when Russia will run out of strength. This may happen later than we would like.  We must be ready. We must not survive, but learn to live in new conditions. Restart the defense sector and the country as a whole.*  Then the enemy will have no chance to defeat us.


----------



## The Bread Guy

How well is the fight going for RUS?  RUS state media & amplifier/fan boy sites are playing up "volunteers" (usual caveats re:  clicking on RUS, supporter servers) ....

*"Putin welcomes idea of inviting volunteers to provide military assistance in Donbass"*








						Putin calls to assist volunteers willing to go to a special operation zone - Essence of Time
					

Russian President Vladimir Putin called to assist volunteers willing to voluntarily go to Ukraine and take part in a special operation on 11 March during a meeting with members of the Russian Security Council.




					eu.eot.su
				











						Putin OKs idea to get volunteers from the Middle East to help Donbass forces
					

'Western sponsors' do not conceal the collection of mercenaries. They do it openly, while neglecting the norms of international law, Putin noted




					english.pravda.ru
				











						Shoigu: Thousands of volunteers from the Middle East want to help Donbass - Essence of Time
					

More than 16,000 volunteers from the Middle East want to come to the LPR and DPR, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said on March 11 at a meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin with permanent members of the Security Council.




					eu.eot.su
				



... while "inviting" folks to recruiting stations








						Russians are receiving "invitations" to show up at military enlistments offices
					

Even more Russians report receiving the "invitations" to come to the military enlistment office under various pretexts.This was reported by Militarnyi referencing the publication of "Kavkaz.Realii".Despite the statements of the president of russia, citizens continue to fear the general...




					mil.in.ua


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> How well is the fight going for RUS?  RUS state media & amplifier/fan boy sites are playing up "volunteers" (usual caveats re:  clicking on RUS, supporter servers) ....
> 
> *"Putin welcomes idea of inviting volunteers to provide military assistance in Donbass"*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Putin calls to assist volunteers willing to go to a special operation zone - Essence of Time
> 
> 
> Russian President Vladimir Putin called to assist volunteers willing to voluntarily go to Ukraine and take part in a special operation on 11 March during a meeting with members of the Russian Security Council.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> eu.eot.su
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Putin OKs idea to get volunteers from the Middle East to help Donbass forces
> 
> 
> 'Western sponsors' do not conceal the collection of mercenaries. They do it openly, while neglecting the norms of international law, Putin noted
> 
> 
> 
> 
> english.pravda.ru
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Shoigu: Thousands of volunteers from the Middle East want to help Donbass - Essence of Time
> 
> 
> More than 16,000 volunteers from the Middle East want to come to the LPR and DPR, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said on March 11 at a meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin with permanent members of the Security Council.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> eu.eot.su
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ... while "inviting" folks to recruiting stations
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russians are receiving "invitations" to show up at military enlistments offices
> 
> 
> Even more Russians report receiving the "invitations" to come to the military enlistment office under various pretexts.This was reported by Militarnyi referencing the publication of "Kavkaz.Realii".Despite the statements of the president of russia, citizens continue to fear the general...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> mil.in.ua


I think it’s a great idea to accept 16,000 ‘volunteers’ from the sunny and hot Middle East and drop them into -5c  eastern Ukraine. Yup, that’s going to end well.


----------



## tomydoom

Saw this on my FB feed. I absolutely love the level of trolling being done to the Russians.


----------



## Remius

tomydoom said:


> Saw this on my FB feed. I absolutely love the level of trolling being done to the Russians.


Not going to lie, so do I.

I feel like the tractor is now going to be a long lasting symbol of Ukrainian resistance to this invasion.


----------



## tomydoom

Remius said:


> Not going to lie, so do I.
> 
> I feel like the tractor is now going to be a long lasting symbol of Ukrainian resistance to this invasion.


Wait for Vlad to ban tractors and images of tractors as being anti-Russian and pro-fascist.


----------



## RangerRay

The Spectacular Collapse of Putin’s Disinformation Machinery
					

A few critical errors have brought down Russia's complex and objectively brilliant war of influence in the West.




					www.wired.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

This from UKR mil intelligence this morning:  *"Putin is preparing a terrorist attack on the Chernobyl nuclear power plant"* (original in Ukrainian, Google English translation attached)


> According to available information, Vladimir Putin has ordered the preparation of a terrorist attack at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. The Russian-controlled Chernobyl nuclear power plant plans to create a man-made catastrophe, for which the occupiers will try to shift responsibility to Ukraine.
> 
> Currently, the Chernobyl nuclear power plant is completely disconnected from the monitoring systems of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The station is de-energized. The resource of available diesel generators is designed for 48 hours of maintenance of safety systems.
> 
> The occupiers refused to grant access to the station to Ukrainian repairmen. Instead, "Belarusian specialists" went there on the instructions of Alexander Lukashenko. Among them, under the guise of nuclear power plants, Russian saboteurs also come to organize a terrorist attack.
> 
> At the same time, in recent days, Putin's troops have struck at the Zaporizhzhya NPP and the Kharkiv Institute of Physics and Technology (where the experimental nuclear reactor is located).
> 
> In order to imitate the involvement of the Ukrainian military in the Chernobyl accident, the occupiers are trying to create fake "evidence" to confirm their version. In particular, Russian car refrigerators collecting the bodies of dead Ukrainian defenders were spotted near the Antonov airport in Gostomel. There is a possibility that they will be presented as killed saboteurs in the Chernobyl zone.
> 
> That is, without getting the desired result from the ground military operation and direct talks, Putin is ready to resort to nuclear blackmail of the world community for the sake of concessions in support of Ukraine.
> 
> At present, Ukraine, the world, and Russia itself understand that the statements about Ukraine's involvement in the creation of a nuclear threat are only a staging of a mediocre scenario. Nevertheless, such actions by Putin will have catastrophic consequences for the whole world. It seems that this is what the Russian dictator is counting on, demanding unacceptable concessions.


----------



## dimsum

I'm assuming this fits best here but it's not 100% about the current conflict.  









						The Chinese Obsession with Ukrainian Wives
					

Since the Ukrainian invasion, jokes about “sheltering homeless Ukrainian girls” have proliferated on Chinese social media. But China’s obsession with “Ukrainian beauties” goes way back.




					www.vice.com


----------



## KevinB

Here are the latest developments in Ukraine.
					






					www.nytimes.com
				



For those not able to climb the paywall -

LVIV, Ukraine — Russian forces, battered by a determined Ukrainian resistance, stepped up their aerial bombardment across Ukraine early Friday, targeting locations far from the front lines while continuing to pummel cities already devastated by fighting.

The renewed Russian push came as the war was taking a decidedly darker turn, with hundreds of thousands of people now living in primeval conditions in besieged cities as Russian forces try to batter the country into submission.

The situation is catastrophic in Mariupol, where the number of dead grows daily, with bodies now buried in trenches. But information was limited after an overnight missile strike on the city’s emergency services center severed one of the last lines of communication to the outside world. Other cities encircled by Russian troops are reporting increasingly barbaric conditions as food runs low, clean water supplies dry up and access to medical care becomes scarce.
“We are doing everything to save our people in the cities that the enemy just wants to destroy,” President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said in an overnight address. Though about 100,000 people have escaped from hard-hit areas in recent days via several humanitarian corridors, Mariupol remains “completely blocked,” he said.
Here are the major recent developments:

President Biden will announce on Friday that the United States will join the G7 and the European Union in calling for the suspension of normal trade relations with Russia, according to a person familiar with the announcement, a change that would raise tariffs for many Russian products.
Missile strikes were reported overnight in places far from the Russians’ main advance: Dnipro, a key city on Dnieper River that the Russians would have to seize to lay claim to the eastern half of the country; Lutsk, in the northwest; and Ivano-Frankivsk in the southwest. The western targets indicated that Russia might be expanding its efforts to slow the flow of weapons and resources to the front lines from across Ukraine’s western border.
The primary target for Russia remains the capital, Kyiv. Satellite imagery of a miles-long convoy north of the city suggests that Russia is repositioning its forces for a renewed assault there.
The International Atomic Energy Agency has warned of what it calls “deteriorating and exhausting conditions” for staff at the defunct Chernobyl nuclear power plant in northern Ukraine. Russian troops have occupied the facility, north of Kyiv and near the border with Belarus, since the early days of the invasion last month.
In response to the latest wave of businesses pulling out of Russia, President Vladimir V. Putin, said he was considering nationalizing the assets of companies that do so. Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, said that seizing such assets would “ultimately result in even more economic pain for Russia.”
Congress passed a major spending bill on Thursday that includes $13.6 billion in emergency aid for Ukraine.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Here's a bit of interesting information.  Swedish patrol plane right off the coast of Kaliningrad patrolling.









						SVF622 Swedish Armed Forces Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware
					

Track Swedish Armed Forces  #622 flight from Malmen Air Base to Malmen Air Base




					flightaware.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> I think it’s a great idea to accept 16,000 ‘volunteers’ from the sunny and hot Middle East and drop them into -5c  eastern Ukraine. Yup, that’s going to end well.


Just like those loyal Wagnerians from the Central African Republic ...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502122734729383941


----------



## The Bread Guy

@KevinB - maybe you should try your luck with Facebook instead of Twitter 








						Facebook allows war posts urging violence against Russian invaders
					

Meta Platforms will allow Facebook and Instagram users in some countries to call for violence against Russians and Russian soldiers in the context of the Ukraine invasion, according to internal emails seen by Reuters on Thursday, in a temporary change to its hate speech policy.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Just like those loyal Wagnerians from the Central African Republic ...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502122734729383941


LOL, I'm willing to bet that they'd drop their weapons and head west to Poland/Germany and claim refugee status the first chance they get.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Czech_pivo said:


> LOL, I'm willing to bet that they'd drop their weapons and head west to Poland/Germany and claim refugee status the first chance they get.



So would most of the Russian troops in the Ukraine right now, if given the chance to bolt, I'm guessing.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Czech_pivo said:


> LOL, I'm willing to bet that they'd drop their weapons and head west to Poland/Germany and claim refugee status the first chance they get.


They might find forces in Ukraine put up a little more fight who they're used to dealing with.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Jarnhamar said:


> They might find forces in Ukraine put up a little more fight who they're used to dealing with.


Again, I love bringing in 'volunteers' from nice, warm/hot sunny places and dropping them in north-east Ukraine in mid-March.  The buggers will freeze to death. Just make sure to give them all a packet of sunflower seeds when they get there.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Jarnhamar said:


> They might find forces in Ukraine put up a little more fight who they're used to dealing with.


... not to mention, depending on where the "volunteers" end up fighting in UKR, some Russian troops between them and the POL border who _may_ have something to say about their volunteer help GTFO'ing from the fight ....


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502261225878601728

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502210498493915136

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502221544499601411


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502184818028781572


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502159841631997960


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502261225878601728
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502210498493915136
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502221544499601411


I will say this about the Sr Officers of the RA, they do seem to understand that they must be at/near the front lines in order to:

A) ensure their orders are getting through
B) realise that the situation is f*cked and their presence is needed
C) have little faith in their Jr. Officers ability to lead/think independently
D) realise that chance of death at the frontlines is less certain than certain 'accidental' death at a later date if they stay in the rear and wait for this to blow over


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502184818028781572


I love how the 'feminine' version of Lukashenko was used, brillant!  

Lukashenka instead of Lukashenko


----------



## daftandbarmy

Czech_pivo said:


> I will say this about the Sr Officers of the RA, they do seem to understand that they must be at/near the front lines in order to:
> 
> A) ensure their orders are getting through
> B) realise that the situation is f*cked and their presence is needed
> C) have little faith in their Jr. Officers ability to lead/think independently
> D) realise that chance of death at the frontlines is less certain than certain 'accidental' death at a later date if they stay in the rear and wait for this to blow over



'There is nothing so good for a soldier's morale as to occasionally see a dead General.' 

- Field Marshall William Slim


----------



## Portnord

RangerRay said:


> It’s amazing how much the far left and far right overlap…


It's not as much a line as a circle that loops back to totalitarianism.


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> This from UKR mil intelligence this morning:  *"Putin is preparing a terrorist attack on the Chernobyl nuclear power plant"* (original in Ukrainian, Google English translation attached)


The west needs to prevent thus, and fast, a radiological attack could trigger article 5


----------



## MilEME09

Unm what?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502294983033958403


----------



## Remius

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-war-russia-invasion-1.6381134
		


Looks like they are starting to hit western ukraine now…


----------



## Kirkhill

RangerRay said:


> The Spectacular Collapse of Putin’s Disinformation Machinery
> 
> 
> A few critical errors have brought down Russia's complex and objectively brilliant war of influence in the West.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.wired.com



90% of the way there I would guess with that article.



> With skill and care, Russian operatives tested and retested how best to polarize audiences.



Alinsky 13 - 



> "Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and* polarize it*. "



The aim is to destabilize.  To get opposition off balance and keep it there.  The destabilize it so that it loses cohesion and can't launch a cohesive response to any challenge.

I agree entirely with the Wired position.


Now if they can just come a little further in their thinking.


Hillary vs Donald
Red vs Blue (or Blue vs Red if you're Canadian)
Vaxxers and Anti-Vaxxers
Greta Thunberg and Climate Deniers
Windmills or Pipelines
Pro-Life or Pro-Choice
Sexist, Racist, Homophobic, Mysogynistic

From the position of Vlad's Info Machine it doesn't matter in the least what the Truth is.  Pravda killed the truth aeons ago.  

Vlad is served when normal debates between friends who tolerate differences of opinion turn into Glasgow after a Rangers-Celtic Cup Final.

Drunk and rowdy and spoiling for a fight and driving the "decent" citizens off the streets.  Vlad wins.  And so does Xi for that matter.

Vlad's win is not when one side or the other wins.  Vlad's win is when the hooligans start reaching for their hammers and knives.

Vlad wins when the argument turns to Safe Spaces and Triggers.  Pro or Con.

liberal-conservative
Liberal-Conservative
Labour-Tory
Republican-Democrat
Communist-Fascist
Capitalist-Socialist
Catholic-Protestant
Rich-Poor
Black-White

Pick your topic of debate
Freeze it by demanding "clarifying" definitions
Personalize it by ad hominem attacks
Polarize it.  Above everything else.  Polarize it.

Play that game.
Enjoy that game.
And you are serving the interests of Vlad and Xi.

The counter proposition is Toleration.  
Acceptance that nothing is that critical that we can't afford the time to debate quietly and agree to accept an outcome with which we disagree.

Of course there are some that are vehemently opposed to Toleration.

Toleration and Anti-Toleration.

Vlad still wins.


----------



## Remius

Join a forum like Army.ca

Create a profile.  Don’t go full retard.  But maybe as a new recruit with some life experience. Avoid responding to any questions that might out you when called out on certain things. 

Post in some of our more animated threads.  Like say the COVID one.  Say some inflammatory comments to get sides going.

Then do the same in the Ukraine thread.  Maybe try to sow some doubt with pro Russian stuff and fake Ukrainian things.  Then try and and amplify with examples of the past and subtly criticize to west while doing so.  Since it seems to work in other threads.

Then go quiet when getting called out by the plurality of members and not actually having the desired effect. 

Just spit balling about how that could be a realistic scenario in a forum like this one.


----------



## tomydoom

Remius said:


> Join a forum like Army.ca
> 
> Create a profile.  Don’t go full retard.  But maybe as a new recruit with some life experience. Avoid responding to any questions that might out you when called out on certain things.
> 
> Post in some of our more animated threads.  Like say the COVID one.  Say some inflammatory comments to get sides going.
> 
> Then do the same in the Ukraine thread.  Maybe try to sow some doubt with pro Russian stuff and fake Ukrainian things.  Then try and and amplify with examples of the past and subtly criticize to west while doing so.  Since it seems to work in other threads.
> 
> Then go quiet when getting called out by the plurality of members and not actually having the desired effect.
> 
> Just spit balling about how that could be a realistic scenario in a forum like this one.


Cough HTC Cough cough


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> Unm what?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502294983033958403


This from UKR's DefMin via the UKR General Staff's FB page ~an hour ago (FB's translation quoted) ....


> Minister of Defense of Ukraine Резніков Олексій :
> 
> !! ️ Addressing the Belarusian people.
> 
> Friends. According to information in which we are fully confident and confirmed, at the moment the command of the Russian occupation troops is preparing a series of bloody provocations.
> 
> According to their criminal idea, Russian aviation is preparing to strike a number of settlements in the territory of the Republic of Belarus, which are close to the Ukrainian-Belarusian border. In particular, they are going to be hit by the n. p. Kopani, Stolinsky district, Brest region.
> 
> To disguise the crime, Russia intends to carry out an attack from the airspace of Ukraine.
> 
> The purpose of the provocation is to force the current leadership of Belarus to the war against Ukraine. Moscow is trying to tie you up by blood.
> 
> I guarantee that the Ukrainian army did not plan, does not plan and will not plan any aggressive actions against Belarus.
> 
> In 15 days of the war, Ukrainian troops destroyed more than 12 thousand. Russian soldiers.
> 
> Don't allow your country to be dragged into this war! Save the lives of your loved ones! Do not let the Kremlin destroy the future of Belarus!


----------



## Brad Sallows

Saw something about Ukraine offering a bounty to defecting Russian pilots.

Next up (as suggested by one of the commenters): crowdsourced bribery on social media to convince Russian pilots to defect.  Everyone can play.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> I love how the 'feminine' version of Lukashenko was used, brillant!
> 
> Lukashenka instead of Lukashenko


Actually, various media outlets have different style guides on the a-vs-o spelling - I've seen the "a" version in BLR media, in fact.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Czech_pivo said:


> I think it’s a great idea to accept 16,000 ‘volunteers’ from the sunny and hot Middle East and drop them into -5c  eastern Ukraine. Yup, that’s going to end well.


It snows in Syria, Lebanon and Iran FYI, the most likely places any Middle Eastern troops will come from.  Mix of rain and snow in Damascus today.



			damascus syria weather - Google Search


----------



## Kirkhill

A friend made me aware of this map from 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502140534256816130
My reaction was: 

Based on that map then we appear to have 9 CAA each with an average of 12 BTGs.

That makes each Combined Arms Army (XXXX) a Division (XX). With some divisions losing a Brigade (X) and others picking up an extra.

EG 58 CAA and 8 CAA in the south have 25 BTGs between them. Divide 25 by 2 and we have 12 BTG per CAA.

It looks like a WW2 or Soviet map with Armies and Fronts. It is actually a 3 Corps effort with 9 Divisions and the quality of the Divisions seems to be up for debate.

1 Army made to look like 9.

Still Vlad plays games.  

Maskirovka is him and Potemkin is his hero.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> It snows in Syria, Lebanon and Iran FYI, the most likely places any Middle Eastern troops will come from.  Mix of rain and snow in Damascus today.
> 
> 
> 
> damascus syria weather - Google Search


I'm well aware that is snows in that area, but what happens to them would its -18c and snowing and they have to sleep outside? 
To compare the fact that it occasionally snows in Damascus with the weather in say, Kkarkiv at this time of the year and to say that a person from Damascus would be fine operating outdoors daily in Kharkiv is like saying that I (from Windsor, Ontario where it gets and stays above 33-35c with humidity) could handle operating outside daily in Karachi in mid-July.


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> View attachment 69391
> 
> A friend made me aware of this map from
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502140534256816130
> My reaction was:
> 
> Based on that map then we appear to have 9 CAA each with an average of 12 BTGs.
> 
> That makes each Combined Arms Army (XXXX) a Division (XX). With some divisions losing a Brigade (X) and others picking up an extra.
> 
> EG 58 CAA and 8 CAA in the south have 25 BTGs between them. Divide 25 by 2 and we have 12 BTG per CAA.
> 
> It looks like a WW2 or Soviet map with Armies and Fronts. It is actually a 3 Corps effort with 9 Divisions and the quality of the Divisions seems to be up for debate.
> 
> 1 Army made to look like 9.
> 
> Still Vlad plays games.
> 
> Maskirovka is him and Potemkin is his hero.


Armies using nomenclature no where near their actual size and strength? Why does this sound soo familiar


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502321354372177923


----------



## armrdsoul77

Russian Defense Ministry: "... the United States is training migratory birds to migrate from Ukraine to Russia and distribute bacteriological weapons"

Russia Makes Crazy Claim That U.S. Is Training Birds To Spread A Ukrainian Bioweapon (Updated)


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502277184102277120


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Czech_pivo said:


> I'm well aware that is snows in that area, but what happens to them would its -18c and snowing and they have to sleep outside?
> To compare the fact that it occasionally snows in Damascus with the weather in say, Kkarkiv at this time of the year and to say that a person from Damascus would be fine operating outdoors daily in Kharkiv is like saying that I (from Windsor, Ontario where it gets and stays above 33-35c with humidity) could handle operating outside daily in Karachi in mid-July.


It's mid march, the weather is turning, compare Kyiv with Damascus right now, the weather is similar.


----------



## tomydoom

Another win for Tractors!


----------



## OceanBonfire

> "This video is very disturbing," says Edwin Lyman, director of nuclear power safety at the Union of Concerned Scientists. While the types of reactors used at the plant are far safer than the one that exploded in Chernobyl in 1986, the Russian attack could have triggered a meltdown similar to the kind that struck Japan's Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in 2011, he warns.
> 
> "It's completely insane to subject a nuclear plant to this kind of an assault," Lyman says.
> 
> In a news conference on Thursday, Grossi said that he had met with Ukrainian and Russian officials but failed to reach an agreement to avoid future attacks on Ukraine's other nuclear plants. "I'm aiming at having something relatively soon," he told reporters in Vienna.











						Video analysis reveals Russian attack on Ukrainian nuclear plant veered near disaster
					

An NPR analysis of security footage and photos following the attack on Europe's largest nuclear power plant shows that many of the plant's critical safety systems were in the field of Russian fire.




					www.npr.org


----------



## dapaterson

Today in "Spot the SigOp".


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502035427703861259


----------



## KevinB

Interesting development...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502349232442859522


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502277184102277120



How much for a tank?


----------



## Kirkhill

dapaterson said:


> Today in "Spot the SigOp".
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502035427703861259



Not a fan of turning off the power plants then.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

dapaterson said:


> Today in "Spot the SigOp".
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502035427703861259


"I'm not gonna be the one to tell the BC we're out of coffee.."


----------



## tomydoom

Kirkhill said:


> How much for a tank?


Why pay for them, when Ukrainian farmers seem to be harvesting them for free?


----------



## Spencer100

Kirkhill said:


> How much for a tank?


those seem to go for free, but they should offer free gas.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Interesting development...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502349232442859522


Saddle up Poland, the Winged Hussars will ride again!


----------



## Spencer100

Kirkhill said:


> How much for a tank?


The Ukrainian CFA-FCA equivalate at this point is one of the best equipped forces in Europe.    Their next grain price meeting should interesting.  You don't like my price?.......


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502324722507288576

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502356875928555520


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502293453593530375


----------



## Spencer100

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502324722507288576
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502356875928555520


I don't understand all the political BS and triangulation.  What is the difference?  Poland gives the planes or the US. Putin will just blame the US anyways.   But I think the Biden admin is just rudderless.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502308623673921540@Altair we may have located a spine -- too early to tell..


----------



## KevinB

Spencer100 said:


> I don't understand all the political BS and triangulation.  What is the difference?  Poland gives the planes or the US. Putin will just blame the US anyways.   But I think the Biden admin is just rudderless.


Poland doesn't want to be singled out - they are willing to give the AC to the UKR, but wanted to do it through the US - but Germans won't allow transfer from US bases in Germany for fear of being party to the conflict, and it not being viewed as an Article 5.

POTUS has made it clear that even if a NATO country conducts a solitary offensive action in UKR against Russia, that we will at least view it is an Article 5 attack if Russia attacks them, and frankly we carry the biggest stick, so what we guarantee is more important in that respect than all the other NATO countries simply from a firepower aspect..


----------



## The Bread Guy

Medals and flowers for the wounded from большой босс (the big boss), courtesy of the RUS MoD info-machine on YouTube


----------



## OceanBonfire

> The stoppage casts a cloud over the worldwide output of chips, already in short supply after the coronavirus pandemic drove up demand for cellphones, laptops and later cars, forcing some firms to scale back production.
> 
> ...
> 
> "If stockpiles are depleted by April and chipmakers don't have orders locked up in other regions of the world, it likely means further constraints for the broader supply chain and inability to manufacture the end-product for many key customers," he said.











						Exclusive: Russia's attack on Ukraine halts half of world's neon output for chips
					

Ukraine's two leading suppliers of neon, which produce about half the world's supply of the key ingredient for making chips, have halted their operations as Moscow has sharpened its attack on the country, threatening to raise prices and aggravate the semiconductor shortage.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Interesting development...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502349232442859522


I'm trying to collaborate this tweet from another source with no luck.  Has anyone else had any luck with this?


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502308623673921540@Altair we may have located a spine -- too early to tell..


By the gods i hope so.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> I'm trying to collaborate this tweet from another source with no luck.  Has anyone else had any luck with this?


He backtracked a bit. 
    I get the impression he’s got two different handlers with two different POV’s


----------



## The Bread Guy

Russians making refugee vehicles mark up in RUS symbols, leading to UKR tps firing on them?

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502277851730657280


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502354031720681477
How long until the chemical attacks start @KevinB ?


----------



## MilEME09

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502354031720681477
> How long until the chemical attacks start @KevinB ?


If they loose too much ground in Chernihiv, the forces to the NE of Kyiv will be cut off, but they are also surrounded there so I doubt they can do any major break out action.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> If they loose too much ground in Chernihiv, the forces to the NE of Kyiv will be cut off, but they are also surrounded there so I doubt they can do any major break out action.


I know Chernihiv is surrounded looking at the maps, but you are not hearing about the siege of Chernihiv like you are hearing about the siege of Mariupol. No talk of running out of food and water, which leads me to believe that Chernihiv was incredibly well stocked before this in both food and ammunition (it would be weird to stock up Chernihiv and not Mariupol) or that the encirclement hasn't cut off all supply routes in yet, at least not long enough for conditions to deteriorate.


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502362912282841091
Signs that Putin is angry? 

When the inner circle cronies start to fall.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> He backtracked a bit.
> I get the impression he’s got two different handlers with two different POV’s


Because man, some of those in the Baltics would be jumping at that chance.....

Answer me this, do you (any of you) think that this is an opening to say, Poland, to establish a 'safe zone' within western/central Poland under the auspicious of administering humanitarian aid to Ukrainians fleeing conflict in the eastern zone of the country?


----------



## OldSolduer

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502362912282841091
> Signs that Putin is angry?
> 
> When the inner circle cronies start to fall.


Comrade we need to have a friendly little....chat. Please be to accompany the Cheka I mean my butler to Kremlin.


----------



## Remius

Czech_pivo said:


> Because man, some of those in the Baltics would be jumping at that chance.....
> 
> Answer me this, do you (any of you) think that this is an opening to say, Poland, to establish a 'safe zone' within western/central Poland under the auspicious of administering humanitarian aid to Ukrainians fleeing conflict in the eastern zone of the country?


It might be.  Would be fair game to say this is a “special humanitarian operation”.


----------



## The Bread Guy

OldSolduer said:


> Comrade we need to have a friendly little....chat. Please be to accompany the Cheka I mean my butler to Kremlin.


... and have some tea ...


----------



## Czech_pivo

Remius said:


> It might be.  Would be fair game to say this is a “special humanitarian operation”.


If it is, this could be a perfect case to send in the DART and a corresponding security detachment.


----------



## daftandbarmy

OldSolduer said:


> Comrade we need to have a friendly little....chat. Please be to accompany the Cheka I mean my butler to Kremlin.



Interview without Vodka:


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502176362177593348
The news article is the interesting part,  ignore the Twitter crap.


----------



## suffolkowner

Remius said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502176362177593348
> The news article is the interesting part,  ignore the Twitter crap.


Yes but for all that our response to the Russian invasion has been a little muted so there is some obvious push back from the rest of cabinet or the PM


----------



## Altair

suffolkowner said:


> Yes but for all that our response to the Russian invasion has been a little muted so there is some obvious push back from the rest of cabinet or the PM


I expect the big push from Freeland will come with the budget. 

Depending on how much the CAF gets we will know how successful she has been.


----------



## Remius

suffolkowner said:


> Yes but for all that our response to the Russian invasion has been a little muted so there is some obvious push back from the rest of cabinet or the PM


She’s done a lot of behind the door work.  Especially in the economic sanctions side where she is being credited with a lot of the work on that.  I don’t mind if she’s more muted but effective in what she’s doing.  Better than a bunch of empty words.


----------



## suffolkowner

Altair said:


> I expect the big push from Freeland will come with the budget.
> 
> Depending on how much the CAF gets we will know how successful she has been.





Remius said:


> She’s done a lot of behind the door work.  Especially in the economic sanctions side where she is being credited with a lot of the work on that.  I don’t mind if she’s more muted but effective in what she’s doing.  Better than a bunch of empty words.



A little sad then but goes to show what we are up against with respect to the other side. The whole NATO response has been quite limp. Hoping that more air defence systems do get pushed into Ukraine if the Russians can be kept on the ground then I do not see them being able to come out of this in control of anything. While they have moved to fairly indiscriminate MLRS attacks we have yet to see the bomber fleet unleashed yet


----------



## Good2Golf

Humphrey Bogart said:


> It snows in Syria, Lebanon and Iran FYI, the most likely places any Middle Eastern troops will come from.  Mix of rain and snow in Damascus today.
> 
> 
> 
> damascus syria weather - Google Search


But pretty sure is doesn’t snow in the CAR. ☀️


----------



## daftandbarmy

Good2Golf said:


> But pretty sure is doesn’t snow in the CAR. ☀️



Dude... just....


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502362912282841091
> Signs that Putin is angry?
> 
> When the inner circle cronies start to fall.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502386346912067589


----------



## Good2Golf

Kirkhill said:


> How much for a tank?


What’s the price of steel/kg?


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> A little sad then but goes to show what we are up against with respect to the other side. The whole NATO response has been quite limp. Hoping that more air defence systems do get pushed into Ukraine if the Russians can be kept on the ground then I do not see them being able to come out of this in control of anything. While they have moved to fairly indiscriminate MLRS attacks we have yet to see the bomber fleet unleashed yet


I wonder if we can convince turkey to give up an S400 battery to Ukraine, part of ukraines issue us Russian cruise missiles launched at stand off range from Russia, deny them that and we make progress.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Interesting....

From Hybrid Tactics to Invasion – Lesson for China from Ukraine​Lessons from the Invasion​It is difficult to say how the invasion of Ukraine will affect Sino-Russian relations going forward. One possibility is that an internationally isolated regime in Russia will seek to foster closer ties between Moscow and Beijing, but with a lesser leverage on the Chinese. A controllable Sino-Russian partnership might precipitate a risky PLA attack on Taiwan, or conversely the ability of the liberal Ukrainian state to withstand aggression and rally foreign support might blunt the CCP’s enthusiasm for an attack on the island. What is clear is that the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the response to it, bring with it several crucial lessons about the strategic and political balance.

One such lesson is that countries without formal security alliances with Western countries, should not expect to receive direct military support and must look to their own defenses if attacked. So far, the determined resistance of the Ukrainian military, and the civilian population, should at least dispel the notion that small and medium states are incapable of fighting a conventional defensive war.  In addition, the effectiveness of long-term efforts to degrade the ability of the West to respond decisively through economic incentives and political influence, may have to be re-calculated. The response by the EU and individual nations to the invasion, which has included unprecedented developments in security policy such as the German decision to supply Kyiv with arms, indicates that both the Union and NATO has been galvanized by the war. Beijing will likely face hard choice between tacit support for Moscow and distancing itself from Putin, as indicated by the Chinese abstention from a UN Security Council Resolution condemning the invasion of Ukraine.

Assessing a potential military operation, intelligence officials often focus on three essential factors: intent, capability, and opportunity.  Undoubtedly the preparations for the assault on Ukraine had observers all around the world carefully assessing whether the political, diplomatic, economic, and strategic machinery of the Kremlin provided the means and reflected the willingness to invade. Against this backdrop a shift to Taiwan paints an unsettling picture. To unite the island with mainland China is a clearly stated and often repeated objective of Beijing and Xi. The massive build-up and modernization of the PLA over the last 10 to 15 years may now provide China the military capability to successfully attack Taiwan, assuming that Taipei does not receive immediate support from the U.S., and possibly other partners such as Australia or Japan. Certainly, there is likely to have been the calculation that should American forces become committed in Europe then Taiwan is more vulnerable to a planned invasion, raising the question whether this is the opportunity. However, the ability of the Ukrainian population to stand up to the massive Russian military, a strong response from the international community, and signs of an unwillingness in Russia to accept an unpopular war may prove a deterrent to the CCP’s military ambitions.

From a military point of view, it is still too early to conclude what doctrinal lessons can be drawn from the invasion. The Russian military is operating in several different regions and adapting its strategies as the tactical and political landscape changes. But one development which stands out are the difficulties and risks inherent in air assaults against a determined but moderately trained and equipped defensive force. Another more politically focused potential lesson is the reluctance of western democratic states to commit to using force or tough economic measures pre-emptively. The Russian aggression against Ukraine, and the adjoining crises it is unleashing, did not come as a surprise, even if its scope may have been unexpected. The massing of Russian forces and the ever more bellicose rhetoric has been intensifying for nearly a year, if not longer. Efforts to explore every possible diplomatic avenue and not take any significant military or economic action meanwhile, did not prevent Putin’s military aspirations.

The deterrent strategy used by Brussels and Washington simply did not work in this case and exposed the difficulties for liberal democracies to act against authoritarian leaders. However, the ongoing response and more long-term reactions to the invasion is vitally important. Clearly many closely held beliefs about security policy are being rethought in Europe and leaders both in authoritarian and democratic countries would be wise to take note. As China mulls its future role on the global stage and how best to achieve its political, social, and military aspirations, its leaders will be following events as they unfold with a view towards how best to secure their core interests. For better or worse, Beijing will be watching Russia, Ukraine, and the West closely in the coming days, weeks and years, and the lessons drawn from current events will likely cast long shadows.









						From Hybrid Tactics to Invasion - Lesson for China from Ukraine - Institute for Security and Development Policy
					

Maj. Gen. (ret) Mats Engman and Julian Tucker share initial impressions on the unfolding war in Ukraine and its impacts on Chinese strategic thinking.




					isdp.eu


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502370895175815170


----------



## Kirkhill

Good2Golf said:


> What’s the price of steel/kg?




Your wish is my command... Hot Rolled or Rebar?


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> Interesting....
> 
> From Hybrid Tactics to Invasion – Lesson for China from Ukraine​Lessons from the Invasion​It is difficult to say how the invasion of Ukraine will affect Sino-Russian relations going forward. One possibility is that an internationally isolated regime in Russia will seek to foster closer ties between Moscow and Beijing, but with a lesser leverage on the Chinese. A controllable Sino-Russian partnership might precipitate a risky PLA attack on Taiwan, or conversely the ability of the liberal Ukrainian state to withstand aggression and rally foreign support might blunt the CCP’s enthusiasm for an attack on the island. What is clear is that the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the response to it, bring with it several crucial lessons about the strategic and political balance.
> 
> One such lesson is that countries without formal security alliances with Western countries, should not expect to receive direct military support and must look to their own defenses if attacked. So far, the determined resistance of the Ukrainian military, and the civilian population, should at least dispel the notion that small and medium states are incapable of fighting a conventional defensive war.  In addition, the effectiveness of long-term efforts to degrade the ability of the West to respond decisively through economic incentives and political influence, may have to be re-calculated. The response by the EU and individual nations to the invasion, which has included unprecedented developments in security policy such as the German decision to supply Kyiv with arms, indicates that both the Union and NATO has been galvanized by the war. Beijing will likely face hard choice between tacit support for Moscow and distancing itself from Putin, as indicated by the Chinese abstention from a UN Security Council Resolution condemning the invasion of Ukraine.
> 
> Assessing a potential military operation, intelligence officials often focus on three essential factors: intent, capability, and opportunity.  Undoubtedly the preparations for the assault on Ukraine had observers all around the world carefully assessing whether the political, diplomatic, economic, and strategic machinery of the Kremlin provided the means and reflected the willingness to invade. Against this backdrop a shift to Taiwan paints an unsettling picture. To unite the island with mainland China is a clearly stated and often repeated objective of Beijing and Xi. The massive build-up and modernization of the PLA over the last 10 to 15 years may now provide China the military capability to successfully attack Taiwan, assuming that Taipei does not receive immediate support from the U.S., and possibly other partners such as Australia or Japan. Certainly, there is likely to have been the calculation that should American forces become committed in Europe then Taiwan is more vulnerable to a planned invasion, raising the question whether this is the opportunity. However, the ability of the Ukrainian population to stand up to the massive Russian military, a strong response from the international community, and signs of an unwillingness in Russia to accept an unpopular war may prove a deterrent to the CCP’s military ambitions.
> 
> From a military point of view, it is still too early to conclude what doctrinal lessons can be drawn from the invasion. The Russian military is operating in several different regions and adapting its strategies as the tactical and political landscape changes. But one development which stands out are the difficulties and risks inherent in air assaults against a determined but moderately trained and equipped defensive force. Another more politically focused potential lesson is the reluctance of western democratic states to commit to using force or tough economic measures pre-emptively. The Russian aggression against Ukraine, and the adjoining crises it is unleashing, did not come as a surprise, even if its scope may have been unexpected. The massing of Russian forces and the ever more bellicose rhetoric has been intensifying for nearly a year, if not longer. Efforts to explore every possible diplomatic avenue and not take any significant military or economic action meanwhile, did not prevent Putin’s military aspirations.
> 
> The deterrent strategy used by Brussels and Washington simply did not work in this case and exposed the difficulties for liberal democracies to act against authoritarian leaders. However, the ongoing response and more long-term reactions to the invasion is vitally important. Clearly many closely held beliefs about security policy are being rethought in Europe and leaders both in authoritarian and democratic countries would be wise to take note. As China mulls its future role on the global stage and how best to achieve its political, social, and military aspirations, its leaders will be following events as they unfold with a view towards how best to secure their core interests. For better or worse, Beijing will be watching Russia, Ukraine, and the West closely in the coming days, weeks and years, and the lessons drawn from current events will likely cast long shadows.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> From Hybrid Tactics to Invasion - Lesson for China from Ukraine - Institute for Security and Development Policy
> 
> 
> Maj. Gen. (ret) Mats Engman and Julian Tucker share initial impressions on the unfolding war in Ukraine and its impacts on Chinese strategic thinking.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> isdp.eu



China buys Russian debt for Rubles on the Yuan.

China accepts Russian Hydrocarbon Infrastructure in the Arctic east of the Urals as surety.

China appoints its own plant managers and supply their own security guards.

China shows up at the next Arctic Council conference






						The Arctic Council
					

The Arctic Council is the leading intergovernmental forum promoting cooperation in the Arctic.




					arctic-council.org
				




Asks for fraternal relations with the Inuit Circumpolar Council.


----------



## Good2Golf

Hot rolled, of course…Javelin hot! Lol


----------



## Dana381

Spencer100 said:


> I don't understand all the political BS and triangulation.  What is the difference?  Poland gives the planes or the US. Putin will just blame the US anyways.   But I think the Biden admin is just rudderless.



I think the problem is that it went public, had the Poles quietly stripped their markings off and painted UKR ones a week ago and shut up about it all would be well!


----------



## Quirky

Dana381 said:


> I think the problem is that it went public, had the Poles quietly stripped their markings off and painted UKR ones a week ago and shut up about it all would be well!


But then politicians couldn’t boast that they are doing something.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502401774942052354

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502404799106535424


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502405243916726273


----------



## suffolkowner

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502405243916726273


but Ukrainian Nazis



Dana381 said:


> I think the problem is that it went public, had the Poles quietly stripped their markings off and painted UKR ones a week ago and shut up about it all would be well!


they could be denying it the whole time as a few trickle across the border to replace Ukrainian losses as long as Ukraine has the pilots to fly them
same with the S-300 systems who would no if a few got delivered?


----------



## Quirky

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502405243916726273


Let’s hope they all get on one flight and mysteriously disappear over the Mediterranean.


----------



## MilEME09

Quirky said:


> Let’s hope they all get on one flight and mysteriously disappear over the Mediterranean.


You can bet Israel would do just that


----------



## Remius

MilEME09 said:


> You can bet Israel would do just that


I’m not sure Israël can be counted on when it comes to Russia.









						Opinion | Israel, Russia and the U.S. Moral Abdication
					

Obama’s fecklessness in Syria and the Iran deal forced Jerusalem to choose survival over its principles.




					www.wsj.com
				












						Ukrainian defense official: We appreciate Bennett’s mediation
					

Lubkivskyi was positive about Jerusalem and showed understanding of its delicate situation with Moscow, which is the dominant force over Israel’s northern border with Syria.




					m.jpost.com


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502422403393237002
Bleak Outlook for Russia, in the west forces are abandoning their vehicles, in the south no progress, counter attacks in the east and north. Russia is offering amnesty to prisoners in exchange for service, and are calling up reservists.


----------



## Mills Bomb

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502405243916726273



If Russia is recruiting foreign units, wouldn't that mean Ukraine can recruit complete foreign units as well? 

This thing just keeps having more surprises. I can't imagine this will end well for Russia if they manage to drag NATO in anytime soon. 

With so much equipment lost, so many soldiers killed or wounded, what position will Russia really be in to defend itself after this? I'm getting more and more the impression they've been losing a lot of their really top tier stuff.


----------



## Altair

Mills Bomb said:


> If Russia is recruiting foreign units, wouldn't that mean Ukraine can recruit complete foreign units as well?
> 
> This thing just keeps having more surprises. I can't imagine this will end well for Russia if they manage to drag NATO in anytime soon.
> 
> With so much equipment lost, so many soldiers killed or wounded, what position will Russia really be in to defend itself after this? I'm getting more and more the impression they've been losing a lot of their really top tier stuff.


----------



## MilEME09

Altair said:


>


I can't wait to see the NATO response to a known terrorist group going to fight for Russia.


----------



## Skysix

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502401774942052354
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502404799106535424


Plus an unknown  number abandoned, sized and tractor towed by farmers for illegal parking and captured by the UKR army


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502405243916726273


I have a really good idea.  Since Ukraine is becoming the battlefield of choice for all ideologues and pick your flavour terrorist groups. 

We should actively encourage them all to go there and actively tell them they are fighting #insertopponentnamehere

And when enough Proud Boys, Antifa, White Power, Hezbollah, Al Qaeda, ISIS, Communists, Fascists, Criminals, Wallstreet Bankers 😁 have saturated the battlespace......


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

OceanBonfire said:


> Exclusive: Russia's attack on Ukraine halts half of world's neon output for chips
> 
> 
> Ukraine's two leading suppliers of neon, which produce about half the world's supply of the key ingredient for making chips, have halted their operations as Moscow has sharpened its attack on the country, threatening to raise prices and aggravate the semiconductor shortage.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


Ahhhh buuuuuuttttt my IPhone!


----------



## Eye In The Sky

The Bread Guy said:


> ... and have some tea ...



But not everyone wants or likes tea.  I don’t think we should force tea on…oh. Different context. Sorry!


----------



## dimsum

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Ahhhh buuuuuuttttt my IPhone!


Hostilities end in 3...2...1...


----------



## Jarnhamar

Elite Canadian sniper leaves family behind to fight for Ukraine: 'I had to go'​


> The marksman, *identified only as Wali to protect his family’s safety*, has responded to President Volodymyr Zelinkskyy’s call for foreign fighters to assist in the war against Russia.





> -He left behind his programming job, his wife and infant son to cross the frontier from Poland
> -40-year-old retired veteran of the Canadian Armed Forces
> -Wali served with the Royal Canadian Infantry’s feared 22nd Regiment twice during the war in Afghanistan, in Kandahar between 2009 and 2011 as a sniper
> -volunteer fighter with Kurdish forces in 2015.



Article has 2 clear pictures of him, including one with other CAF members in Afghanistan. 


Not exactly what I could call subtle.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Jarnhamar said:


> Elite Canadian sniper leaves family behind to fight for Ukraine: 'I had to go'​
> 
> 
> 
> Article has 2 clear pictures of him, including one with other CAF members in Afghanistan.
> 
> 
> Not exactly what I could call subtle.




Where he's going, if they let him go there, he can say he's as 'Elite' as he wants, as many times as he wants, to whoever he wants AFAIC


----------



## MilEME09




----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> China buys Russian debt for Rubles on the Yuan.
> 
> China accepts Russian Hydrocarbon Infrastructure in the Arctic east of the Urals as surety.
> 
> China appoints its own plant managers and supply their own security guards.
> 
> China shows up at the next Arctic Council conference
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Arctic Council
> 
> 
> The Arctic Council is the leading intergovernmental forum promoting cooperation in the Arctic.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> arctic-council.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Asks for fraternal relations with the Inuit Circumpolar Council.


Why are you guys giving them ideas?


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502405243916726273


So wait, anti Semitic’s are going to overthrow a neo-Nazi regime?


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502428672120299525
More Russian senior officer casualties, no wonder Russia is so disorganized, Ukraine is cutting the heads off Medusa


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502428796317835270

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502433157802508288


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> I can't wait to see the NATO response to a known terrorist group going to fight for Russia.



What about the Chechens? 

I know they're supposed to be loyal to Russia but....


----------



## The Bread Guy

This, from the UK's vets minister:  like K.C. & the Sunshine Band sang, please don't go ....








						Veterans minister calls on ex-service personnel not to join war in Ukraine
					

Veterans Minister Leo Docherty has written to military charities to seek their support in ensuring that veterans do not travel to Ukraine.




					www.gov.uk


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502410531323453442


----------



## MilEME09

Meanwhile Poland steps up.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502438279576272896


----------



## Remius

MilEME09 said:


> Meanwhile Poland steps up.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502438279576272896


Jeebus.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> Meanwhile Poland steps up.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502438279576272896


Closer one is to their adversary the less they FAAFO


----------



## dimsum

MilEME09 said:


> Meanwhile Poland steps up.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502438279576272896


Frankly, I'm surprised it took them this long. 

It's not like they haven't been overrun in recent history.


----------



## The Bread Guy

daftandbarmy said:


> What about the Chechens?
> 
> I know they're supposed to be loyal to Russia but....


Yes, and no ...








						Chechens Are Fighting on Both Sides of Russian-Ukrainian Conflict - The Media Line
					

Images of Chechen fighters preparing to join the […]




					themedialine.org
				



... and not just now (this from 2015)








						Why Chechens Are Fighting Chechens in Ukraine's Civil War
					

The conflict has given exiled Chechens a chance to revive an old battle against their Moscow-backed kinsmen




					time.com
				




Meanwhile, about foreigners fighting for UKR: *"Fighters with Ukraine’s foreign legion are being asked to sign indefinite contracts. Some have refused"*


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Russian Comms in Ukraine: A World of Hertz
					

Evidence of Russian communications in Ukraine indicates that the modernisation of the Russian Armed Forces has been troubled, causing operational and tactical challenges.




					rusi.org
				




_Russia’s war in Ukraine has been marked by its apparent lack of coordination and an ostensibly flawed plan. Russian forces have been observed moving deep into Ukraine, only to be cut off by a lack of fuel, vehicle breakdowns, and ultimately Ukrainian forces. Open-source intelligence and Ukrainian reports suggest that radio communications across the Russian forces are poor, leading to makeshift solutions including the use of unencrypted high frequency (HF) radio for long-range communications and mobile phones to communicate. There is some evidence that Russian soldiers have deployed with more advanced software-defined radios (SDR) such as the R-187P1 Azart and R-168-5UN-2 tactical radios that were carried by a Russian airborne soldier captured near Kyiv. However, the impression provided by the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) over the years has been that this equipment was widespread and that the majority of the Russian Armed Forces (RuAF) were operating digital radios and systems designed to facilitate planning and decision-making.  _
Rest on link


----------



## suffolkowner

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502328919038517253
interesting update on Ukraine's airforce


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502328919038517253
> interesting update on Ukraine's airforce


With the number of SAM systems being found, captured, or destroyed, their AD net is likely getting weaker.


----------



## Kirkhill

Mills Bomb said:


> If Russia is recruiting foreign units, wouldn't that mean Ukraine can recruit complete foreign units as well?
> 
> This thing just keeps having more surprises. I can't imagine this will end well for Russia if they manage to drag NATO in anytime soon.
> 
> With so much equipment lost, so many soldiers killed or wounded, what position will Russia really be in to defend itself after this? I'm getting more and more the impression they've been losing a lot of their really top tier stuff.



I wonder what the Gurkhas are up to these days.


----------



## Remius

The Bread Guy said:


> Yes, and no ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Chechens Are Fighting on Both Sides of Russian-Ukrainian Conflict - The Media Line
> 
> 
> Images of Chechen fighters preparing to join the […]
> 
> 
> 
> 
> themedialine.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ... and not just now (this from 2015)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Why Chechens Are Fighting Chechens in Ukraine's Civil War
> 
> 
> The conflict has given exiled Chechens a chance to revive an old battle against their Moscow-backed kinsmen
> 
> 
> 
> 
> time.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Meanwhile, about foreigners fighting for UKR: *"Fighters with Ukraine’s foreign legion are being asked to sign indefinite contracts. Some have refused"*


When fantasy meets reality.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Just watched the MND announce a paltry Canadian contribution to the opposition of the current threat posed by Russia, and a commitment to almost double defence spending three years from now. Conveniently, beyond the time that these idiots get kicked out of office.

Embarrassing? Hell yeah....





__





						Anand discusses the importance of national defence
					





					www.msn.com


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> Meanwhile Poland steps up.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502438279576272896


Can Canada claim some of Poland’s increase for our own numbers?  You know, because….blah, blah, blah, [word salad], the world needs more Canada, we’re doing the things that need to be done, and looking at things that need to be looked at, blah, blah, blah….


----------



## HumblePie

The Bread Guy said:


> Meanwhile, about foreigners fighting for UKR: *"Fighters with Ukraine’s foreign legion are being asked to sign indefinite contracts. Some have refused"*


"members of the foreign legion are prohibited from having beards."

Count me out...


----------



## Remius

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukrainian-fighter-foreign-legion-medics-vets-1.6381650
		



_CBC News spoke to three former foreign fighters who fought ISIS in Syria. They all said that Canadians shouldn't join the fight in Ukraine unless they're former soldiers — because if they don't have the skills, they might be a liability for those around them._


----------



## daftandbarmy

Good2Golf said:


> Can Canada claim some of Poland’s increase for our own numbers?  You know, because….blah, blah, blah, [word salad], the world needs more Canada, we’re doing the things that need to be done, and looking at things that need to be looked at, blah, blah, blah….



Me, watching Anand on TV:


----------



## Remius

Mark your calendars.









						Ukrainian President Zelensky to address Canadian Parliament on Tuesday
					

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will address Canada’s Parliament on Tuesday. Zelensky will be appearing virtually, and he will speak jointly to members of the House of Commons and Senate, inside the House chamber at 11:15 a.m.




					www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## Eye In The Sky

MilEME09 said:


> Meanwhile Poland steps up.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502438279576272896



Canadian PM:  “in light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine we are increasing our spending and investing in NORAD.  We already announces the NORAD thing in January before all this invasion stuff but now we are saying the NORAD investment is for the Ukraine and NATO which is sort of like NORAD.  We are also buying more drinking bottle plastic water boxes things…”


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502469589309001728


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502243166006689804


----------



## FJAG

daftandbarmy said:


> Embarrassing? Hell yeah....


In some ways it's good that Anand is so new on the job.

My guess is when she went to the CAF for options, she was quite surprised how embarrassingly bare our cupboard was. She does mot have a vested interest in protecting her ass as the incumbent of the last five years. She can make some strong arguments within Cabinet for a major change in defence policy and funding.

I don't see what she can offer up to Zelensky that would be of value. I semi-jokingly thought a hundred leopards and a couple of hundred LAVs but they would probably prefer older Soviet stock from Poland.

My fear is that Russia has been looking so inept in this that uneducated novices like Trudeau will simply consider Russia as no threat to NATO the way it is. And there's probably a lot of truth to that but 'not a treat to NATO' does not mean 'not threat to some of its smaller members'.

OTOH there's a lot of public sentiment right now for NATO and the Ukraine and even if there's nothing specific we can do to help the Ukraine, putting more funds into Canada's military would be seen as a positive thing to do. He's spending money like a drunken sailor anyway and this would be one proof that it's not only truckers that he's tough on.

🍻


----------



## Remius

FJAG said:


> In some ways it's good that Anand is so new on the job.
> 
> My guess is when she went to the CAF for options, she was quite surprised how embarrassingly bare our cupboard was. She does mot have a vested interest in protecting her ass as the incumbent of the last five years. She can make some strong arguments within Cabinet for a major change in defence policy and funding.
> 
> I don't see what she can offer up to Zelensky that would be of value. I semi-jokingly thought a hundred leopards and a couple of hundred LAVs but they would probably prefer older Soviet stock from Poland.
> 
> My fear is that Russia has been looking so inept in this that uneducated novices like Trudeau will simply consider Russia as no threat to NATO the way it is. And there's probably a lot of truth to that but 'not a treat to NATO' does not mean 'not threat to some of its smaller members'.
> 
> OTOH there's a lot of public sentiment right now for NATO and the Ukraine and even if there's nothing specific we can do to help the Ukraine, putting more funds into Canada's military would be seen as a positive thing to do. He's spending money like a drunken sailor anyway and this would be one proof that it's not only truckers that he's tough on.
> 
> 🍻


Zelensky will be addressing parliament on Tuesday.  Maybe something more substantive about the CAF will line up with that.


----------



## MilEME09

Listening to an OSINT podcast in Twitter right now, 4 different OSINT commentators involved. Their best guess based on avaliable sources is 10.5k Russians dead, and estimated wounded and PoWs around 40-50k. Which would explain Russia stripping the cupboard bare to get reinforcements to the front.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502243166006689804


----------



## Kirkhill

FJAG said:


> In some ways it's good that Anand is so new on the job.
> 
> My guess is when she went to the CAF for options, she was quite surprised how embarrassingly bare our cupboard was. She does mot have a vested interest in protecting her ass as the incumbent of the last five years. She can make some strong arguments within Cabinet for a major change in defence policy and funding.
> 
> I don't see what she can offer up to Zelensky that would be of value. I semi-jokingly thought a hundred leopards and a couple of hundred LAVs but they would probably prefer older Soviet stock from Poland.
> 
> My fear is that Russia has been looking so inept in this that uneducated novices like Trudeau will simply consider Russia as no threat to NATO the way it is. And there's probably a lot of truth to that but 'not a treat to NATO' does not mean 'not threat to some of its smaller members'.
> 
> OTOH there's a lot of public sentiment right now for NATO and the Ukraine and even if there's nothing specific we can do to help the Ukraine, putting more funds into Canada's military would be seen as a positive thing to do. He's spending money like a drunken sailor anyway and this would be one proof that it's not only truckers that he's tough on.
> 
> 🍻



Also, if Russia collapses.... 

China.

And that wouldn't be good.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502241612101046275


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> Also, if Russia collapses....
> 
> China.
> 
> And that wouldn't be good.


Well China does now seem to have a rather weak northern neighbor… 
    Looks a lot easier than attempting a crossing against Taiwan at this juncture


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> Well China does now seem to have a rather weak northern neighbor…
> Looks a lot easier than attempting a crossing against Taiwan at this juncture



And more profitable.


----------



## NavyShooter

An interesting breakdown of the attack/ambush.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Well China does now seem to have a rather weak northern neighbor…
> Looks a lot easier than attempting a crossing against Taiwan at this juncture


----------



## WLSC

NavyShooter said:


> An interesting breakdown of the attack/ambush.


Is it me or the BMPs we’re going in the wrong direction when reacting to the ambush?


----------



## FJAG

KevinB said:


> Well China does now seem to have a rather weak northern neighbor…
> Looks a lot easier than attempting a crossing against Taiwan at this juncture


I'm not sure how good China's intelligence network is in Russia but I expect that, regardless, their mouths are hanging open watching this show and a whole lot of recalibration of their foreign policy is going on.

🍻


----------



## Colin Parkinson

China will continue to buy their way into Russia far east border area, even more so now that the Rouble is cheap and Moscow desperate.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502248721290915841


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502368064695934979
I guess we may have found out where all those billions Putin spent on the military went.


----------



## Zipperhead99

MilEME09 said:


> Listening to an OSINT podcast in Twitter right now, 4 different OSINT commentators involved. Their best guess based on avaliable sources is 10.5k Russians dead, and estimated wounded and PoWs around 40-50k. Which would explain Russia stripping the cupboard bare to get reinforcements to the front.


If those numbers are accurate, even with a large military, how long can Russia sustain this?? They are getting bleed white!


----------



## Zipperhead99

Some US generals offer their insight









						Top American generals on three key lessons learned from Ukraine - Breaking Defense
					

"The computer models would have said Russia wins in 72 to 96 hours," said Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger. They "cannot explain why Ukraine is still hanging on. Why is that?"




					breakingdefense.com


----------



## Kirkhill

How long before Vlad's troops take Kyiv?









						Why Russia’s forces are too stretched and exhausted to encircle and attack Kyiv
					

After two weeks of war, what are the chances of Vladimir Putin’s demoralised troops laying siege to the Ukrainian capital?




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## daftandbarmy

Text Elon for a space Uber...

*American astronaut may get stranded in space station over Russia tensions*

An American astronaut aboard the International Space Station is set to return to Earth with two Russian cosmonauts next month — but his trip home has been marred by uncertainty after a Vladimir Putin ally reportedly threatened to leave him behind.

The scheduled return to Earth for US astronaut Mark Vande Hei was thrown into question after Dmitry Rogozin, the head of Russia’s Space Agency, made the threats in a Feb. 26 video that he posted to social media, ABC News reported.

Vande Hei’s warning came after President Biden announced sanctions on Russia in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

American astronaut may get stranded in space station over Russia tensions


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> How long before Vlad's troops take Kyiv?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Why Russia’s forces are too stretched and exhausted to encircle and attack Kyiv
> 
> 
> After two weeks of war, what are the chances of Vladimir Putin’s demoralised troops laying siege to the Ukrainian capital?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.telegraph.co.uk


I think at this point it's a question of can they take Kyiv, not when? It is a massive Urban environment, with tens of thousands of entrenched defenders who are well supplies. I do not believe Russian forces can take Kyiv any more.


----------



## Fishbone Jones

Why hasn't  someone donated a few Tomahawk type munitions to Ukraine? Hell, they could even come preprogrammed for the Kremlin and a few choice dacha locations. A couple of fancy assed ships at the bottom of the Black Sea wouldn't garner much western outrage or condemnation either, I'll  bet. What happened to tit for tat? You bomb Kyiv, we bomb Moscow. Or Sevastopol. A cruise missle into the Navy Yard there will get Vlad's attention.


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR's President:  gotta get a handle on all these Russian prisoners ....


> ... The number of captured invaders has already reached such a level that this issue cannot be left to the structures that we had before the war.
> 
> Therefore, today the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine established the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War.
> 
> Thousands of enemy soldiers who have been captured or surrendered receive from our state the treatment required by international conventions.
> 
> But there are so many of them that a special structure is needed to deal with all related issues ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR General Staff to RUS pilots:  bring us your plane/chopper, get a few bucks & a new passport! (FB in Ukrainian - FB translation below)


> UKR/RUS
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> RUSSIAN PILOT, SURRENDER TO UKRAINIAN MILITARY!
> the only way to preserve your life and honor!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> According to the decision of the General Director Yuri Gusev, the State Corporation "Ukroboronprom" is ready to pay bonuses for stolen combat aviation equipment of the occupiers!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 1,000,000 US dollars - for a stolen or trophy fighter plane.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 500 000 US dollars - for a seized military helicopter in working condition.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> RUSSIAN PILOT, GIVE UP TO UKRAINIAN MILITARY!
> the only way to preserve your life and honor!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Attention! According to the decision of the General Director Yuri Gusev, the DC "Ukroboronprom" is ready to pay bonuses for stolen combat aviation equipment of the occupiers!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 1,000,000 US$ - for a stolen or trophy aircraft in working condition.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 500,000 US dollars - for the seized helicopter in working condition.
> We guarantee the issuance of citizenship of a free country to Russian pilots ready to participate in the program!


----------



## The Bread Guy

Remius said:


> I’m not sure Israël can be counted on when it comes to Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Opinion | Israel, Russia and the U.S. Moral Abdication
> 
> 
> Obama’s fecklessness in Syria and the Iran deal forced Jerusalem to choose survival over its principles.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.wsj.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian defense official: We appreciate Bennett’s mediation
> 
> 
> Lubkivskyi was positive about Jerusalem and showed understanding of its delicate situation with Moscow, which is the dominant force over Israel’s northern border with Syria.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> m.jpost.com


Official denials from both sides at this point








						Israel, Ukraine deny report Bennett recommended yielding to Russian demands
					

A top Ukrainian adviser and an Israeli official on Saturday pushed back against a media report suggesting Israel tried to nudge Ukraine into caving to Russian demands during talks.




					www.reuters.com
				











						Israel doesn't offer Ukraine to agree to Russia's demands – Podoliak
					

Israel does not offer Ukraine to agree to the conditions of the Russian Federation, which Moscow put forward to end the war, said Mykhailo Podoliak, adviser to the head of the President's Office of Ukraine.




					en.interfax.com.ua


----------



## Jarnhamar

Remius said:


> Zelensky will be addressing parliament on Tuesday.  Maybe something more substantive about the CAF will line up with that.



CAF-"Today we're announcing an introduction to Ukraine Awareness course" on distance learning that CAF members will need to complete by March 31s.


----------



## OceanBonfire

The Bread Guy said:


> How RUS state media and fellow-traveller/amplifier sites are playing up the bio-war angle as of the past few hours ....
> 
> "US bio-laboratories in Ukraine studied bat coronavirus" (Essence of Time, pro-RUS amplifier)
> "Biolabs In Ukraine, A Smoking Gun That White House Dubbed As Fake News" (South Front, pro-RUS amplifier)
> "Russian Ministry of Defence: Containers of Bat Ectoparasites Were Transferred Abroad From a Kharkov Laboratory" (Сталкер Zone, pro-RUS amplifier)
> "Russia requests Security Council meeting on US biological programs in Ukraine - diplomat" (RUS state media)
> "Zelensky denies weapons of mass destruction projects in Ukraine" (RUS state media)
> "Topic of possible chemical provocations in Ukraine coming to fore in OPCW - diplomat" (RUS state media)
> "UP-4 biological project in Ukraine: USA was building bioweapon against the Slavs" (RUS Communist Party media)
> "The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the details of the UP-4 project, which was implemented with the participation of laboratories in Kyiv, Kharkov and Odessa, and was designed for the period up to 2020, have become known ..." (Telegram: Contact @rian_ru)





Mills Bomb said:


> It's not just Russia, it's the Chinese propaganda / news also.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> China's promotion of Russian disinformation indicates where its loyalties lie
> 
> 
> In public statements and at international summits, Chinese officials have attempted to stake out a seemingly neutral position on the war in Ukraine, neither condemning Russian actions nor ruling out the possibility Beijing could act as a mediator in a push for peace.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com





armrdsoul77 said:


> Russian Defense Ministry: "... the United States is training migratory birds to migrate from Ukraine to Russia and distribute bacteriological weapons"
> 
> Russia Makes Crazy Claim That U.S. Is Training Birds To Spread A Ukrainian Bioweapon (Updated)



Unsurprisingly, QAnon and conspiracy theories believers believe this:









						Russia's bioweapon conspiracy theory finds support in U.S.
					

Russia's baseless claims about secret American biological warfare labs in Ukraine are taking root in the U.S. too, uniting COVID-19 conspiracy theorists, QAnon adherents and some supporters of ex-U.S. President Donald Trump.




					www.ctvnews.ca
				












						Russia's bioweapon conspiracy theory finds support in US
					

Russia's baseless claims about secret American biological warfare labs in Ukraine are taking root in the U.S. too, uniting COVID-19 conspiracy theorists, QAnon adherents and some supporters of ex-President Donald Trump.




					apnews.com
				












						China amplifies unsupported Russian claim of Ukraine biolabs
					

As Russia intensifies its assault on Ukraine, it is getting a helping hand from China in spreading inflammatory and unsubstantiated claims that the U.S. is financing biological weapons labs in Ukraine.




					www.ctvnews.ca
				












						China amplifies unsupported Russian claim of Ukraine biolabs
					

BANGKOK (AP) — As Russia intensifies its assault on Ukraine, it is getting a helping hand from China in spreading inflammatory and unsubstantiated claims that the U.S. is financing biological weapons labs in Ukraine.




					apnews.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Jarnhamar said:


> CAF-"Today we're announcing an introduction to Ukraine Awareness course" on distance learning that CAF members will need to complete by March 31s.


.... if THAT much ...


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> Listening to an OSINT podcast in Twitter right now, 4 different OSINT commentators involved. Their best guess based on avaliable sources is 10.5k Russians dead, and estimated wounded and PoWs around 40-50k. Which would explain Russia stripping the cupboard bare to get reinforcements to the front.


A job for Canada, we can help take care of the POW for Ukraine and relieve them of that burden ensuring that they are taken care of properly


----------



## The Bread Guy

OceanBonfire said:


> Unsurprisingly, QAnon and conspiracy theories believers believe this:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia's bioweapon conspiracy theory finds support in U.S.
> 
> 
> Russia's baseless claims about secret American biological warfare labs in Ukraine are taking root in the U.S. too, uniting COVID-19 conspiracy theorists, QAnon adherents and some supporters of ex-U.S. President Donald Trump.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia's bioweapon conspiracy theory finds support in US
> 
> 
> Russia's baseless claims about secret American biological warfare labs in Ukraine are taking root in the U.S. too, uniting COVID-19 conspiracy theorists, QAnon adherents and some supporters of ex-President Donald Trump.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> apnews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> China amplifies unsupported Russian claim of Ukraine biolabs
> 
> 
> As Russia intensifies its assault on Ukraine, it is getting a helping hand from China in spreading inflammatory and unsubstantiated claims that the U.S. is financing biological weapons labs in Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> China amplifies unsupported Russian claim of Ukraine biolabs
> 
> 
> BANGKOK (AP) — As Russia intensifies its assault on Ukraine, it is getting a helping hand from China in spreading inflammatory and unsubstantiated claims that the U.S. is financing biological weapons labs in Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> apnews.com


... and shared (with a "cannot verify the authenticity of the documents" caveat in one article) by outlets like Rebel Media & The Postmillenial, too, in what looks like digs @ Team Donkey in the U.S.








						U.S. Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland confirms existence of ‘biological research facilities’ in Ukraine
					

Moscow claims that the labs had been working with deadly pathogens like anthrax and the plague, appearing to back up its claims with documentation of the orders to destroy the samples. Rebel News cannot verify the authenticity of the documents.




					www.rebelnews.com
				











						BREAKING: Biden official says US working with Ukraine to prevent bio research facilities from falling into Russian hands
					

“Ukraine has biological research facilities, which in fact we are now quite concerned Russian troops, Russian forces may be seeking to gain control of.”




					thepostmillennial.com
				



Strange bedfellows, indeed ...


----------



## suffolkowner

KevinB said:


> Well China does now seem to have a rather weak northern neighbor…
> Looks a lot easier than attempting a crossing against Taiwan at this juncture





Altair said:


>



Although I think it would be much easier for China to take what it wants from Russia than Taiwan there really is no need as I think they can accomplish most of those goals economically. The truth is Russia is a serious nuclear power, assuming that they can launch and detonate said weapons but if even 30% are functional it wont matter anyways. Russia has put itself in a position now that it can only be the junior power to China and is fully dependent on it going forward as long as it maintains its current policies. Chinese citizens will continue to move into Russia to work on projects owned and funded by China. At the present time Russia is the useful idiot to China in its move to supplant the US and the western liberal democracies rules based order with one of its own. The Chinese especially are used to thinking in mutli generational timespans but I think they have made a mistake as I personally do not see a strong future there. Demographic decline and environmental degredation will hit them harder then expected in my opinion not mention their corrupt political and economic system.

The answer for the west is to get out from under the coporatocracy we have surrendered to and unite in a collective liberal democratic trade front that holds benefits to the individual as a priority


----------



## GR66

FJAG said:


> [snip]
> I don't see what she can offer up to Zelensky that would be of value. I semi-jokingly thought a hundred leopards and a couple of hundred LAVs but they would probably prefer older Soviet stock from Poland.
> ...


Is it noteworthy that of all weapon systems Ukraine has asked for that tanks, AFVs and vehicle-mounted systems in general don't appear to be among them?  Man portable ATGM and SAM systems on the other hand....

Of course every war has its own unique character and we shouldn't be too quick to apply lessons from Ukraine to a more generalized concept of peer-to-peer war fighting, but some things do seem to stand out.


Likely due to Russian numerical superiority, possible local air superiority over the front and greater mass of indirect fires, the Ukrainians appear to be mounting primarily a dismounted defence rather than a mounted defence.  Man portable systems in very large quantities _appear_ to be making the most significant impact.  Interestingly, the few video's I've seen of Ukrainian local counter-attacks have been dismounted as well.
Mobility and logistics are playing a huge factor in limiting the Russian advance.  Both heavy armoured vehicles and logistics vehicles are largely road-bound due to the ground conditions.  What impact would light vehicles with very high cross-country mobility have had on the situtation (BVs10 or other Ultra Light Combat Vehicles for example), even if only for a portion of the force?
Similarly, what good are high-mobility combat forces if your logistics vehicles are road-bound and can't pass the same terrain as the combat forces in order to re-supply the front.
Significant over-supply of materiel and the logistics vehicles to transport them are vital.  Lots of burnt-out Russian supply trucks pictures as well as beat-up civilian trucks being shipped in by train to replace them.
Precision munitions are expensive and finite.  Massed "dumb" fires in high volume are required when they run out.
Control over the airspace is a huge factor.  AD, SEAD, C-UAV and protection of airfields/air assets are vital.
Secure comms are a must.  Shocking that the Russians have been using unencrypted HF radio and cell phones for communication.  The lack of the vaunted Russian EW capabilities being deployed may be due to the fact that they risk interfering with their own comms.
We seem to be on the right track with our focus on highly professional NCMs...Russia appears to be pushing very senior officers forward into the line of fire in order to overcome a lack of initiative at the lower rank levels.
Those are just a couple of things that have come to my mind watching this all unfold.  I'd love to hear other people's thoughts and how it might impact Canadian initiatives like Force 2025.

Perhaps a 'Ukraine - Lessons Learned' thread might be useful if there is enough interest/feedback?


----------



## Dana381

Zipperhead99 said:


> Some US generals offer their insight
> 
> https://breakingdefense.com.com/202...ls-on-three-key-lessons-learned-from-ukraine/



Interesting article. This part about training for when air superiority or other systems are denied. Is that something practiced in western war games? Airline pilots practice for all eventualities that they can, based on events that have happened in the past. Do western nations train in a similar way? 


> Rather, Kelly suggested that the Russian military is used to training on its own turf, where it can use its layers of air defense systems and other weapons to wear down an attacking force. It may not be practiced in operating in an environment where its own forces are disaggregated and it does not already have control over both ground terrain and the skies, which means Ukrainian defenders are operating from a playbook Moscow hasn’t seen before



It appears quite obvious that the Russian problem isn't their gear but their tactics and training.  It's good to know Russian gear is getting used by someone and not just sitting in a scrap heap somewhere.


> Russia’s problem isn’t a technological one, said Air Combat Command head Gen. Mark Kelly during the McAleese and Associates conference on Wednesday.
> 
> Russian surface to air missile systems “are operating pretty well when operated by Ukrainians,” he quipped.


----------



## YZT580

suffolkowner said:


> A job for Canada, we can help take care of the POW for Ukraine and relieve them of that burden ensuring that they are taken care of properly


theoretically I suppose but a; how would you get them here?  You are talking about hundreds of charter flights as we don't have the airlift capability, b; where would you house them?  We had difficulty finding a secure place for a few dozen passengers from a cruise ship.  We don't have any large holding facilities.  c; who would guard them and where would you feed and house the guards?  30 years of peace has stripped our assets to far less than the minimum required.


----------



## OceanBonfire

> What we have to understand is that Putin is basically establishing his legacy at the moment. So he sees himself as, you know, [Joseph] Stalin, or Ivan the Terrible, or Peter the Great. He wants to go down in history — and sorry for the term — for making Russia great again.





			https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/as-it-happens-the-friday-edition-1.6381669/putin-will-go-to-extremes-to-cement-his-legacy-warns-finland-s-ex-pm-1.6382022
		










						Former Latvian president and Montreal professor on Putin: ‘He’s a narcissist and a psychopath’ - National | Globalnews.ca
					

Former Latvian president and Canadian scholar Vaira Vike-Freiberga has sounded the alarm on Russia and its President Vladimir Putin for much of the last two decades.




					globalnews.ca


----------



## KevinB

YZT580 said:


> theoretically I suppose but a; how would you get them here?  You are talking about hundreds of charter flights as we don't have the airlift capability, b; where would you house them?  We had difficulty finding a secure place for a few dozen passengers from a cruise ship.  We don't have any large holding facilities.  c; who would guard them and where would you feed and house the guards?  30 years of peace has stripped our assets to far less than the minimum required.


The same way the RCR guarded Iraqi’s during Desert Storm. 

It’s not impossible to have troops doing that in Western Ukraine.  As long as it was clearly explained they where there solely as a constabulary forces to safeguard Russian PUC’s.


----------



## Dana381

I wonder why a couple Russian warships haven't run into a submarine torpedo their own anti-shipping mines.


----------



## GR66

suffolkowner said:


> A job for Canada, we can help take care of the POW for Ukraine and relieve them of that burden ensuring that they are taken care of properly


Optics would be pretty bad.  Move NATO troops into Ukraine and Russia can claim it as intervention.  Remove them to a NATO country and they will call them "hostages".


----------



## Jarnhamar

suffolkowner said:


> A job for Canada, we can help take care of the POW for Ukraine and relieve them of that burden ensuring that they are taken care of properly



What happens when the thousands of Russian soldiers try to claim some kind of political asylum or say they'll be murdered for returning home?


----------



## YZT580

KevinB said:


> The same way the RCR guarded Iraqi’s during Desert Storm.
> 
> It’s not impossible to have troops doing that in Western Ukraine.  As long as it was clearly explained they where there solely as a constabulary forces to safeguard Russian PUC’s.


until the first soldier gets hit and then it is article 5.  How many soldiers to guard 5000 prisoners?  10%!  So that is 500.  Where do we get them from?  Our quick response group.  We will burn up assets real quick plus you will need at least one, if not more weekly supply flights and then safe passage to get them into where ever the base is located.  We don't have the a/c or the crews to sustain this kind of support and provide an airlift for the augmented force in Latvia.


----------



## suffolkowner

I dont know how the Ukrainians are holding 50000 Russians prisoners!

We could be helping out in Poland and Romania with respect to the refugees. Have we offered or been asked?

I think we given about all we can from a military standpoint unfortunately we just dont have much on hand the M72's probably wiped us out. Maybe more NVG's? I have to think the Ukrainians are on the whole pretty well equipped. The surge in anti tank weapons and stingers has set them up well. The Ukrainians were well equipped to start with really something the Russians should have noted.

Putin just waited way too long to invade a combination of the weather not cooperating, the Olympics and their own logistics failings
as a result Russian BTG are strung out and exposed on roadways that can barely support them. 
The BTG are not real good in practice at operating independently. 
The Ukrainians are really not interested in becoming Russians again something that the Russians underestimated
The Ukrainians learned and prepared from the Donbas invasion more than most in the west and Russia expected
The support from NATO in terms of stingers and the 17000 anti tank munitions was obviously not expected by Russia due to the limp response previously
The ISR provided to the Ukrainians by the US and UK in particular probably gives the Ukrainians a better battlefield awareness on Russian operations than what the Russians have


----------



## Haggis

This story has been going around for a couple of days now.  Two UKR EOD guys defusing an alleged Russian bomb.  Some on social media are claiming it's actually faked as there is a cloth covering up the identification of this piece of ordnance.  Any EOD folks want to weigh in on this?


----------



## Altair

Haggis said:


> This story has been going around for a couple of days now.  Two UKR EOD guys defusing an alleged Russian bomb.  Some on social media are claiming it's actually faked as there is a cloth covering up the identification of this piece of ordnance.  Any EOD folks want to weigh in on this?
> View attachment 69409








__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501654584992968712
Better?


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502642516201455623

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502645024307257345


----------



## OceanBonfire

> A retired former JTF2 officer says Russia's invasion of Ukraine so far shows an 'utterly inept command and control of the military operation.' 'The vaunted Russian military may not be as invincible as we've believed for a number of decades,' he says.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2011821123927


----------



## suffolkowner

From all of Ukraine to east bank Ukraine to Novorossiya to a lesser Novorossiya consisting of Crimea, Kherson,Zaporizhzhia and the Donbas? The Russians are closer to achieving a lessor Novorossiyia at the moment but I can't see them holding it the insurgency will destroy Russia. Unfortunately this has been a tactical and strategic failure. Russia(Putin) should have let Ukraine choose its own course and been happy with the Donbas territories and Crimea and Ukraine should have recognized that as well. Now the war will continue untill both are exhausted


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502667832106098694
Russia loosing more AA kit, I can't imagine their air defense plan is anything but ad hoc at this point.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502664863662936069
And the need for larger POW camps


----------



## HiTechComms

tomydoom said:


> Cough HTC Cough cough


I don't  have the time to sit around all day vigorously masturbating to Twitter propaganda. I have no ability to stop any of this, I have a family to support in Canada and Poland. 

I rather to pay attention the raising Gas prices, increases in cost of everything, lack of housing in Canada.  I am also smart enough to know the Ukraine Was didn't start any of this. It was our own leadership and the money printer going BRRRRRRRR. 

I hate to use this idiom but "this is not my monkeys not my circus". 

Social media is a cancer, it will not kill you right away but it will kill you eventually. Time to take a break and spend time with people that matter to me.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502624576500641798
Hints more S-300s for Ukraine?


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

OceanBonfire said:


>


Or.... maybe the Ukrainians are competent, fighting hard and doing a really good job 😉 

One of the things that bugs me about this line is that it doesn't give credit where credit is due to the Ukrainians who are the ones actually fighting and dying.  

In other words, it's more for consumption of Western audiences.  We can sit back and pat ourselves on the back about how superior we are.  

Net benefit for us is we clearly have no need to increase Defence spending 😉


----------



## MilEME09

Now I am no expert, and this idea will already sound sketchy but what chances would NATO have of a humanitarian air drop into Mariupol? Air drop food,water, and medical supplies into the city, drop it be air. Circle route from turkey, Russia would be pretty ballsy to try and shoot such an effort down.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Now I am no expert, and this idea will already sound sketchy but what chances would NATO have of a humanitarian air drop into Mariupol? Air drop food,water, and medical supplies into the city, drop it be air. Circle route from turkey, Russia would be pretty ballsy to try and shoot such an effort down.


Back when we had balls that would have been done already.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> Now I am no expert, and this idea will already sound sketchy but what chances would NATO have of a humanitarian air drop into Mariupol? Air drop food,water, and medical supplies into the city, drop it be air. Circle route from turkey, Russia would be pretty ballsy to try and shoot such an effort down.


How many different languages can you say "Nein" in?


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> Now I am no expert, and this idea will already sound sketchy but what chances would NATO have of a humanitarian air drop into Mariupol? Air drop food,water, and medical supplies into the city, drop it be air. Circle route from turkey, Russia would be pretty ballsy to try and shoot such an effort down.



In a contested airspace like that? They'd probably get a missile up their tailpipe.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

daftandbarmy said:


> In a contested airspace like that? They'd probably get a missile up their tailpipe.


That or get caught in crossfire from an artillery bombardment trying to jettison their cargo.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Back when we had balls that would have been done already.


Yeah, the berlin airlift would not have been attempted today.

"But we need to fly over Soviet territory! Sanction them instead!"


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> Now I am no expert, and this idea will already sound sketchy but what chances would NATO have of a humanitarian air drop into Mariupol? Air drop food,water, and medical supplies into the city, drop it be air. Circle route from turkey, Russia would be pretty ballsy to try and shoot such an effort down.


Here is a real crazy idea.....

How about we step in and actually help the actual refugee crisis that I said would occur before this war kicked off:



> Poland’s generous welcome of Ukrainian refugees shows signs of strain​Thousands of Poles have been moved to help their neighbors, but now they’re calling on the government to step up..
> 
> BY ZOSIA WANAT











						Poland’s generous welcome of Ukrainian refugees shows signs of strain
					

Thousands of Poles have been moved to help their neighbors, but now they’re calling on the government to step up.




					www.politico.eu


----------



## Altair

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Or.... maybe the Ukrainians are competent, fighting hard and doing a really good job 😉
> 
> One of the things that bugs me about this line is that it doesn't give credit where credit is due to the Ukrainians who are the ones actually fighting and dying.
> 
> In other words, it's more for consumption of Western audiences.  We can sit back and pat ourselves on the back about how superior we are.
> 
> Net benefit for us is we clearly have no need to increase Defence spending 😉


Why not both?


----------



## AmmoTech90

Haggis said:


> This story has been going around for a couple of days now.  Two UKR EOD guys defusing an alleged Russian bomb.  Some on social media are claiming it's actually faked as there is a cloth covering up the identification of this piece of ordnance.  Any EOD folks want to weigh in on this?
> View attachment 69409


The bomb is an OZFAB-500 high explosive incendiary.  It has a liquid fill, the filling hole is behind the rear suspension lug, you can see some leaking out onto the ground.  The white cloth, who knows. Looks like it was taped on, maybe whoever found it marked it with that, dunno.  The techniques not ideal, but if you don't have remote tools you do what you have to.


----------



## tomydoom

HiTechComms said:


> I don't  have the time to sit around all day vigorously masturbating to Twitter propaganda. I have no ability to stop any of this, I have a family to support in Canada and Poland.
> 
> I rather to pay attention the raising Gas prices, increases in cost of everything, lack of housing in Canada.  I am also smart enough to know the Ukraine Was didn't start any of this. It was our own leadership and the money printer going BRRRRRRRR.
> 
> I hate to use this idiom but "this is not my monkeys not my circus".
> 
> Social media is a cancer, it will not kill you right away but it will kill you eventually. Time to take a break and spend time with people that matter to me.


Sorry, not sorry about the fuel prices and your “hardhship”.

There is a former CF member, known to several members of this forum, that had retired to Kyiv. He has lost everything, he and his wife are safe, but they have no idea about the status of friends and family.   So you’ll forgive me if I find moaning about fuel prices a little selfish. 😡


----------



## Good2Golf

YZT580 said:


> theoretically I suppose but a; how would you get them here?  You are talking about hundreds of charter flights as we don't have the airlift capability, b; where would you house them?  We had difficulty finding a secure place for a few dozen passengers from a cruise ship.  We don't have any large holding facilities.  c; who would guard them and where would you feed and house the guards?  30 years of peace has stripped our assets to far less than the minimum required.


Too bad the GTS Katie was scrapped a few years back… 😉


----------



## Altair

tomydoom said:


> Sorry, not sorry about the fuel prices and your “hardhship”.
> 
> There is a former CF member, known to several members of this forum, that had retired to Kyiv. He has lost everything, he and his wife are safe, but they have no idea about the status of friends and family.   So you’ll forgive me if I find moaning about fuel prices a little selfish. 😡


Life in Canada is so hard though....

When filling up the personal vehicle, one would rather be ducking artillery shells, dumb bombs and bullets

/sarcasm


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Altair said:


> Why not both?


The reason(s) is that it undermines the very real need to take our own Defence needs seriously, which is precisely the reason we, aka the West, are in this mess in the first place.  It builds a narrative that nothing we are doing needs to change and status quo is acceptable.

@KevinB  Alluded to:  we used to have balls.

I'm more worried about lack of preparation based on false assumptions for the coming confrontation with the real enemy:


----------



## suffolkowner

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Or.... maybe the Ukrainians are competent, fighting hard and doing a really good job 😉
> 
> One of the things that bugs me about this line is that it doesn't give credit where credit is due to the Ukrainians who are the ones actually fighting and dying.
> 
> In other words, it's more for consumption of Western audiences.  We can sit back and pat ourselves on the back about how superior we are.
> 
> Net benefit for us is we clearly have no need to increase Defence spending 😉


Yes we should give credit where its due. The Ukrainians learned and adapted and while they may have been caught a little off guard by the invasion it was not a terminal error. 

The western response while a little slow and tepid at first has allowed the Ukrainians to engage Russian convoys with no concern to spent munitions. At present over 17000 antimaterial weapons have been promised and at least a third delivered. The TB2 has also been the impact it was expected to be.

The truth is though that 200,000 was never going to be enough to take and hold Ukraine. When the German army invaded Ukraine it did so with over a million.

I think a major helping hand with the refugees is called for surely we can do that?

Others may increase defence spending and I hope we do so too not because I view it as a huge imperative but because all members of an alliance should do their part and our people deserve to be put in a position where they have more than a fighting chance. We got lucky in Afghanistan that our lack of preparation and equipment didn't cost us more than it did. Its embarassing to be the neighbour that is always borrowing the chain saw and lawn mower and cant even bring a 6 pack of beer over


----------



## Altair

Humphrey Bogart said:


> The reason(s) is that it undermines the very real need to take our own Defence needs seriously, which is precisely the reason we, aka the West, are in this mess in the first place.  It builds a narrative that nothing we are doing needs to change and status quo is acceptable.
> 
> @KevinB  Alluded to:  we used to have balls.
> 
> I'm more worried about lack of preparation based on false assumptions for the coming confrontation with the real enemy:


Just because Russia cannot tie their own shoelaces today does not mean that they wont learn how to tomorrow.

So its time to plan for that tomorrow.

But the Russians on the ground now, while facing brave, resilent, organized resistance from Ukraine, are still shockingly incompetent.


----------



## suffolkowner

HiTechComms said:


> I don't  have the time to sit around all day vigorously masturbating to Twitter propaganda. I have no ability to stop any of this, I have a family to support in Canada and Poland.
> 
> I rather to pay attention the raising Gas prices, increases in cost of everything, lack of housing in Canada.  I am also smart enough to know the Ukraine Was didn't start any of this. It was our own leadership and the money printer going BRRRRRRRR.
> 
> I hate to use this idiom but "this is not my monkeys not my circus".
> 
> Social media is a cancer, it will not kill you right away but it will kill you eventually. Time to take a break and spend time with people that matter to me.





tomydoom said:


> Sorry, not sorry about the fuel prices and your “hardhship”.
> 
> There is a former CF member, known to several members of this forum, that had retired to Kyiv. He has lost everything, he and his wife are safe, but they have no idea about the status of friends and family.   So you’ll forgive me if I find moaning about fuel prices a little selfish. 😡





Altair said:


> Life in Canada is so hard though....
> 
> When filling up the personal vehicle, one would rather be ducking artillery shells, dumb bombs and bullets
> 
> /sarcasm



*Interesting group of posts here.*

I do not believe Hitechcomms is a Russian troll. There is sometimes some interesting points brought up but in general I find them to be disjointed at best

I mean it is hard to not collect the cost of fuel to this war. Both from the impact on the markets price evaluation on fuel and the US dollar

I don't think our leadership or monetary policy had anything to do with this war unless you meant the inflationary cycle we are in right now?

The government has long past removed itself from some of these issues and the Canadian government in particular does not have a record of "money printing" until in error (IMO) very recently and I think really the first time since WW2. I wonder if you are referring to monetary policy or fiscal policy?

No monetary or fiscal policy is going to make it rain in California which grows 80-90% of  every fruit and vegetable eaten in the US


----------



## Altair

suffolkowner said:


> *Interesting group of posts here.*
> 
> I do not believe Hitechcomms is a Russian troll. There is sometimes some interesting points brought up but in general I find them to be disjointed at best
> 
> I mean it is hard to not collect the cost of fuel to this war. Both from the impact on the markets price evaluation on fuel and the US dollar
> 
> I don't think our leadership or monetary policy had anything to do with this war unless you meant the inflationary cycle we are in right now?
> 
> The government has long past removed itself from some of these issues and the Canadian government in particular does not have a record of "money printing" until in error (IMO) very recently and I think really the first time since WW2. I wonder if you are referring to monetary policy or fiscal policy?
> 
> No monetary or fiscal policy is going to make it rain in California which grows 80-90% of  every fruit and vegetable eaten in the US


I found it interesting to be posting about how little attention they are paying to this war while focusing on gas prices for themselves. In a thread about the war in Ukraine.

Are gas prices up? Yes. Does it suck? Ya. Is it compounding the inflation issue? Sure is. Is it even half a percent of the struggles the Ukrainians are going through right now? No.

Western society* can be soft as butter sometimes.

*Assuming HTC isnt a Russian troll account, which, if it was, would make their posts much easier to digest.


----------



## MilEME09

Now at current rate, Russia is bound to loose, this could set conditions for a Russian Coup or civil war. How would NATO or the world react to a civil war in a nuclear armed nation?


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> Now at current rate, Russia is bound to loose, this could set conditions for a Russian Coup or civil war. How would NATO or the world react to a civil war in a nuclear armed nation?


Prayer.


----------



## RangerRay

MilEME09 said:


> Now I am no expert, and this idea will already sound sketchy but what chances would NATO have of a humanitarian air drop into Mariupol? Air drop food,water, and medical supplies into the city, drop it be air. Circle route from turkey, Russia would be pretty ballsy to try and shoot such an effort down.


I heard someone smarter than I propose establishing a “We Fly Zone” as in “We will fly in these areas to provide humanitarian support. You are welcome to try to shoot our planes down in these areas. It’s your choice”. I believe this COA would require balls of steel that western leaders are no longer issued.


----------



## The Bread Guy

RangerRay said:


> I heard someone smarter than I propose establishing a “We Fly Zone” as in “We will fly in these areas to provide humanitarian support. You are welcome to try to shoot our planes down in these areas. It’s your choice”. I believe this COA would require balls of steel that western leaders are no longer issued.


Not to mention if any humanitarian flights are shot down, given Russia's propensity to ... augment their "humanitarian" convoys into Donetsk & Luhansk rebel areas in the past, their IA would be: "NATO/West trying to sneak ammo/weapons to Nazis/Banderists/nationalists behind disguise of humanitarian assistance." And would have the pix & video to "prove" it tout suite ...


----------



## Furniture

RangerRay said:


> I heard someone smarter than I propose establishing a “We Fly Zone” as in “We will fly in these areas to provide humanitarian support. You are welcome to try to shoot our planes down in these areas. It’s your choice”. I believe this COA would require balls of steel that western leaders are no longer issued.


It would also require the capability to replace lost aircraft, and aircrews. 

We have just enough of both of those things to keep our underfunded, and underequipped military on life support as it is, how would we fare if we lost a couple C130s, and/or a C17 or two? 

One thing that this war should be teaching the West, is that in war you lose personnel, and kit. Having a few high end systems is not realistically sustainable in a high intensity conflict.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

suffolkowner said:


> Yes we should give credit where its due. The Ukrainians learned and adapted and while they may have been caught a little off guard by the invasion it was not a terminal error.
> 
> The western response while a little slow and tepid at first has allowed the Ukrainians to engage Russian convoys with no concern to spent munitions. At present over 17000 antimaterial weapons have been promised and at least a third delivered. The TB2 has also been the impact it was expected to be.


The introduction of significant numbers of ATGMs, Recoiless Rifles and MANPADS as well as TB2 and other have definitely been significant force multipliers for the Ukrainians. 

It exposed significant weaknesses in lack of VKS PGMs and poor air-ground coordination.  I think we take for granted our significant experience in this area.  Lack of PGMs meant planes had to fly low to perform CAS which makes them vulnerable to MANPADs.

In terms of the impact of ATGMs, the amount the Ukrainians have at their disposal is simply staggering.  Videos I've seen of Ukrainian platoons looks like almost every soldier is carrying some form of Anti-armour weapon. 

It's really negated the significant advantage we've always known Russia has had in terms of number and size of their Armour force.  The Russians were unable to use their Armour to simply overwhelm the Ukrainians.

Another force multiplier that hasn't been talked about but is clearly occurring is the Ukrainians leveraging Western intelligence assets.  Information through LOs is no doubt being passed to the Ukrainians and further helping them blunt the Russians.

The one advantage Russia has that won't be overcome is possession of significant long range artillery.  The Russians will now resort to wholesale bombardment which will unfortunately increase the destructiveness of the Military campaign and make it more difficult for the civilian population.


suffolkowner said:


> The truth is though that 200,000 was never going to be enough to take and hold Ukraine. When the German army invaded Ukraine it did so with over a million.


I agree, I still don't think the Russians want to hold Ukraine, rather I do believe they wanted to formally annex portions of it and neutralize the remainder of the Country so it's no longer a threat to them.

Good article put out on this:









						Moscow’s Compellence Strategy - Foreign Policy Research Institute
					

How ambitious are Russia's foreign policy objectives, and how much force does Moscow believe it must employ to achieve them? Moscow has submitted various




					www.fpri.org
				






suffolkowner said:


> I think a major helping hand with the refugees is called for surely we can do that?


We definitely can and should.  So far, not much has been done for the refugees but a major effort will need to be undertaken soon as the situation gets worse.



suffolkowner said:


> Others may increase defence spending and I hope we do so too not because I view it as a huge imperative but because all members of an alliance should do their part and our people deserve to be put in a position where they have more than a fighting chance. We got lucky in Afghanistan that our lack of preparation and equipment didn't cost us more than it did. Its embarassing to be the neighbour that is always borrowing the chain saw and lawn mower and cant even bring a 6 pack of beer over


Agreed.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502613502065848321
Russia apparently targeting food warehouses to starve out Ukrainian cities


----------



## Brad Sallows

For those looking to understand the character of the fighting:

1. Season and ground.
2. Railways.


----------



## Jarnhamar

HiTechComms said:


> I don't  have the time to sit around all day vigorously masturbating to Twitter propaganda.


The 200 posts across 2 weeks probably threw a few people. No biggie.



			
				HiTechComms said:
			
		

> I rather to pay attention the raising Gas prices, increases in cost of everything, lack of housing in Canada.



Don't forget the residential school scandal, drug overdoses in BC, and Ottawa police drama.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502478017028886535
On today's edition of Geneva convention violations


----------



## GR66

Humphrey Bogart said:


> [snip]
> 
> In terms of the impact of ATGMs, the amount the Ukrainians have at their disposal is simply staggering.  Videos I've seen of Ukrainian platoons looks like almost every soldier is carrying some form of Anti-armour weapon.
> 
> It's really negated the significant advantage we've always known Russia has had in terms of number and size of their Armour force.  The Russians were unable to use their Armour to simply overwhelm the Ukrainians.
> ...



Just in really rough Wikipedia terms....2007 cost of a Leopard 2A6 was $5,740,000.00.  Unit cost of an N-LAW is $33,000.  That means you can buy roughly 174 N-LAWS for the cost of a single Leopard tank.

What are the logistical support costs of a 4-man AT team in an ATV vs a 4-man tank crew?

The key thing to remember here though is that in Ukraine we're really only talking defensive operations against an invading armoured force.  Offensive operations are a whole different story.  Armour might be vital in protecting your troops in the advance, but if the enemy has literally dozens of ATGMs for each of your protected vehicles how do you even get to the point where you are able to advance under armour?  Reportedly the Trophy-heavy APS system on the Merkeva tanks is roughly $900,000 per unit (or 27 x N-LAWS)...how many incoming missiles can each APS defeat? 

Lots of questions coming out of this conflict!


----------



## MilEME09

GR66 said:


> Just in really rough Wikipedia terms....2007 cost of a Leopard 2A6 was $5,740,000.00.  Unit cost of an N-LAW is $33,000.  That means you can buy roughly 174 N-LAWS for the cost of a single Leopard tank.
> 
> What are the logistical support costs of a 4-man AT team in an ATV vs a 4-man tank crew?
> 
> The key thing to remember here though is that in Ukraine we're really only talking defensive operations against an invading armoured force.  Offensive operations are a whole different story.  Armour might be vital in protecting your troops in the advance, but if the enemy has literally dozens of ATGMs for each of your protected vehicles how do you even get to the point where you are able to advance under armour?  Reportedly the Trophy-heavy APS system on the Merkeva tanks is roughly $900,000 per unit (or 27 x N-LAWS)...how many incoming missiles can each APS defeat?
> 
> Lots of questions coming out of this conflict!


Ukraine is primarily an infantry based force with some armour. That's why they are more successful on the defensive. Offensive operations would require a secure staging area to mass what little armour they have, and attack. They need air control for that right now, so they are focusing a localized counter attacks.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502710513872089096


----------



## Czech_pivo

Furniture said:


> It would also require the capability to replace lost aircraft, and aircrews.
> 
> We have just enough of both of those things to keep our underfunded, and underequipped military on life support as it is, how would we fare if we lost a couple C130s, and/or a C17 or two?
> 
> One thing that this war should be teaching the West, is that in war you lose personnel, and kit. Having a few high end systems is not realistically sustainable in a high intensity conflict.


You like having more than 27 marit


GR66 said:


> Just in really rough Wikipedia terms....2007 cost of a Leopard 2A6 was $5,740,000.00.  Unit cost of an N-LAW is $33,000.  That means you can buy roughly 174 N-LAWS for the cost of a single Leopard tank.
> 
> What are the logistical support costs of a 4-man AT team in an ATV vs a 4-man tank crew?
> 
> The key thing to remember here though is that in Ukraine we're really only talking defensive operations against an invading armoured force.  Offensive operations are a whole different story.  Armour might be vital in protecting your troops in the advance, but if the enemy has literally dozens of ATGMs for each of your protected vehicles how do you even get to the point where you are able to advance under armour?  Reportedly the Trophy-heavy APS system on the Merkeva tanks is roughly $900,000 per unit (or 27 x N-LAWS)...how many incoming missiles can each APS defeat?
> 
> Lots of questions coming out of this conflict!


Your observations smack of the much older question of; English Long Bowman vs French Heavy Calvary/Knight and crappy, muddy field. 

I’d argue they are two sides of the same coin. The Long Bowman is the AT team and the Heavy Calvary/Knight is the T-72/Leopard 2A6.


----------



## suffolkowner

Humphrey Bogart said:


> The introduction of significant numbers of ATGMs, Recoiless Rifles and MANPADS as well as TB2 and other have definitely been significant force multipliers for the Ukrainians.
> 
> It exposed significant weaknesses in lack of VKS PGMs and poor air-ground coordination.  I think we take for granted our significant experience in this area.  Lack of PGMs meant planes had to fly low to perform CAS which makes them vulnerable to MANPADs.
> 
> In terms of the impact of ATGMs, the amount the Ukrainians have at their disposal is simply staggering.  Videos I've seen of Ukrainian platoons looks like almost every soldier is carrying some form of Anti-armour weapon.
> 
> It's really negated the significant advantage we've always known Russia has had in terms of number and size of their Armour force.  The Russians were unable to use their Armour to simply overwhelm the Ukrainians.
> 
> Another force multiplier that hasn't been talked about but is clearly occurring is the Ukrainians leveraging Western intelligence assets.  Information through LOs is no doubt being passed to the Ukrainians and further helping them blunt the Russians.
> 
> The one advantage Russia has that won't be overcome is possession of significant long range artillery.  The Russians will now resort to wholesale bombardment which will unfortunately increase the destructiveness of the Military campaign and make it more difficult for the civilian population.
> 
> I agree, I still don't think the Russians want to hold Ukraine, rather I do believe they wanted to formally annex portions of it and neutralize the remainder of the Country so it's no longer a threat to them.
> 
> Good article put out on this:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Moscow’s Compellence Strategy - Foreign Policy Research Institute
> 
> 
> How ambitious are Russia's foreign policy objectives, and how much force does Moscow believe it must employ to achieve them? Moscow has submitted various
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.fpri.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> We definitely can and should.  So far, not much has been done for the refugees but a major effort will need to be undertaken soon as the situation gets worse.
> 
> 
> Agreed.


You are clearly a handsome, well built, intelligent fellow


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502713940328996869
Ukraine needs to release these calls of true, let the world hear this


----------



## Fishbone Jones

suffolkowner said:


> *Interesting group of posts here.*
> 
> I do not believe Hitechcomms is a Russian troll. There is sometimes some interesting points brought up but in general I find them to be disjointed at best
> 
> I mean it is hard to not collect the cost of fuel to this war. Both from the impact on the markets price evaluation on fuel and the US dollar
> 
> I don't think our leadership or monetary policy had anything to do with this war unless you meant the inflationary cycle we are in right now?
> 
> The government has long past removed itself from some of these issues and the Canadian government in particular does not have a record of "money printing" until in error (IMO) very recently and I think really the first time since WW2. I wonder if you are referring to monetary policy or fiscal policy?
> 
> No monetary or fiscal policy is going to make it rain in California which grows 80-90% of  every fruit and vegetable eaten in the US


How do you print billions of dollars "in error?"









						The Bank Of Canada Is Printing Money Like Crazy
					

Chart shows massive surge in money printing, far outpacing comparable nations on a relative basis. Amid the current crisis, many countries have seen increased central bank activity. With business activity pulling back, government spending has surged, and countries around the world are going...




					spencerfernando.com


----------



## suffolkowner

Fishbone Jones said:


> How do you print billions of dollars "in error?"
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Bank Of Canada Is Printing Money Like Crazy
> 
> 
> Chart shows massive surge in money printing, far outpacing comparable nations on a relative basis. Amid the current crisis, many countries have seen increased central bank activity. With business activity pulling back, government spending has surged, and countries around the world are going...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> spencerfernando.com


It is my opinion that it was an error to do so not that they did so by accident sorry for not being clearer


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502713940328996869
> Ukraine needs to release these calls of true, let the world hear this


Reports from UKR mil int of shooting of kids/women during an evacuation in a village near Kiev (Google English), too.

Also, this from a UKR Brigadier re:  RUS losses to date, via UKR mil int quoting a TV interview (original in Ukraininan - Google English excerpt below)


> ... “18 battalion tactical groups have completely lost their combat capability, another 13 have been completely destroyed. 31 battalion-tactical groups in two weeks actually lost combat capability. These are terrible losses that the Russians have never had before, " ...


Late add:  This from UKR's president earlier today ....


> ... Since the beginning of the invasion, 31 battalion tactical groups of the enemy have lost their combat capability. The Russian militaries are being taken prisoners not just alone, but in groups. Groups are trying to leave Ukraine and come back to Russia as well ...


----------



## Zipperhead99

GR66 said:


> Just in really rough Wikipedia terms....2007 cost of a Leopard 2A6 was $5,740,000.00.  Unit cost of an N-LAW is $33,000.  That means you can buy roughly 174 N-LAWS for the cost of a single Leopard tank.
> 
> What are the logistical support costs of a 4-man AT team in an ATV vs a 4-man tank crew?
> 
> The key thing to remember here though is that in Ukraine we're really only talking defensive operations against an invading armoured force.  Offensive operations are a whole different story.  Armour might be vital in protecting your troops in the advance, but if the enemy has literally dozens of ATGMs for each of your protected vehicles how do you even get to the point where you are able to advance under armour?  Reportedly the Trophy-heavy APS system on the Merkeva tanks is roughly $900,000 per unit (or 27 x N-LAWS)...how many incoming missiles can each APS defeat?
> 
> Lots of questions coming out of this conflict!


It certainly highlights the need for all-arms cooperation, spreadout your vehicles when you can and remove the "death before dismount" attitude of thinking that IFVs are as well protected as tanks.  Even in that video a few pages ago of that Russian armoured column getting ambushed by AT weapons, all the infantry are riding inside the BMPs until the lead tank is hit, THEN they dismount but it is already too late.  

Moving alongside a wooded area like that, the infantry should have been dismounted and sweeping the woods for a potential ambush which leads to another lesson learned, if the West ever finds itself in conflict with an opponent that is lavishly equipped with MANPATS, then the pace of advance must be slowed down, especiallly in built up areas (be they natural or man-made), to allow for these areas to be properly swept by dismounted infantry before moving vehicles through the area.  In such a scenario, we can no longer assume that we can just move around like it is a Sunday afternoon drive and that our armour will protect us from everything that might be thrown against it


----------



## Zipperhead99

Dana381 said:


> Interesting article. This part about training for when air superiority or other systems are denied. Is that something practiced in western war games? Airline pilots practice for all eventualities that they can, based on events that have happened in the past. Do western nations train in a similar way?
> 
> 
> It appears quite obvious that the Russian problem isn't their gear but their tactics and training.  It's good to know Russian gear is getting used by someone and not just sitting in a scrap heap somewhere.


In terms of Western nations training under the guise that air superiority, etc. being denied I have never seen practiced in my 22+ years and I spent a good deal of time at CMTC as HICON/EXCON and never seen it practiced (perhaps others on this board have).  Frankly, it is a major failing that the Army has, we never practice for situations where we could be denied air support, we are under constant observation from enemy drones, or comms/IT are unavailable for a long period of time.  Perhaps we need to bring back the practice of dispatch riders for such a scenario


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> Reports from UKR mil int of shooting of kids/women during an evacuation in a village near Kiev (Google English), too.
> 
> Also, this from a UKR Brigadier re:  RUS losses to date, via UKR mil int quoting a TV interview (original in Ukraininan - Google English excerpt below)
> 
> Late add:  This from UKR's president earlier today ....


Refer to my earlier post about OSINT estimates of 10k dead, 40-50k wounded or POW. That means the Russians have lost 25% or more of their initial force. At this current rate, in one week would could be looking at 50% of Russia's forces being combat ineffective. Two weeks and it could be close to 70%, at which time Ukraine would put number them, their morale would be super low, and supplies likely even lower. This would allow Ukraine to commit to large scale counter attacks, and likely see Russian forces surrendering on mass.


----------



## MilEME09

BREAKING

Ukrainian counter attack may have broken a hole in Russian lines to Mariupol 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502719028732829697


----------



## Brad Sallows

> if the enemy has literally dozens of ATGMs for each of your protected vehicles how do you even get to the point where you are able to advance under armour?



1. Wait for the ground to firm up.
2. Stay in range of your artillery support.
3. Stay in range of your artillery ammunition replenishment.


----------



## McG

suffolkowner said:


> We could be helping out in Poland and Romania with respect to the refugees. Have we offered or been asked?


The NGOs & local governments are mobilized and they have this. They don’t want uniforms getting in the way now.


----------



## MilEME09

Additional sources on both sides now saying Ukrainian forces have broken though the seige.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502722679757062151


----------



## The Bread Guy

McG said:


> The NGOs & local governments are mobilized and they have this. They don’t want uniforms getting in the way now.


Given the volume, though, I suspect they'd appreciate _some_ help, but agreed they don't necessarily need _military_ help.

Meanwhile, first OS estimate of UKR casualties coming out of a briefing w/UKR's president today, along with a few other stats (link to RUS independent media) ....


> "Around 1,300" Ukrainian troops have been killed since Russia invaded its pro-Western neighbor, the country's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday as Moscow's forces closed in on the capital Kyiv.
> 
> Zelenskiy made the disclosure at a media briefing, the first time Kyiv had given such a toll since the beginning of fighting. On March 2 Russia said it had lost nearly 500 soldiers, but has not updated the figure since.
> 
> The Ukrainian president claimed that Russia had lost "around 12,000 men."
> 
> It's "a ratio of one to ten, but that doesn't make me happy," he said.
> 
> The Russian army has committed around 150,000 soldiers to the invasion of Ukraine ...


----------



## suffolkowner

Brad Sallows said:


> 1. Wait for the ground to firm up.
> 2. Stay in range of your artillery support.
> 3. Stay in range of your artillery ammunition replenishment.





GR66 said:


> Just in really rough Wikipedia terms....2007 cost of a Leopard 2A6 was $5,740,000.00.  Unit cost of an N-LAW is $33,000.  That means you can buy roughly 174 N-LAWS for the cost of a single Leopard tank.
> 
> What are the logistical support costs of a 4-man AT team in an ATV vs a 4-man tank crew?
> 
> The key thing to remember here though is that in Ukraine we're really only talking defensive operations against an invading armoured force.  Offensive operations are a whole different story.  Armour might be vital in protecting your troops in the advance, but if the enemy has literally dozens of ATGMs for each of your protected vehicles how do you even get to the point where you are able to advance under armour?  Reportedly the Trophy-heavy APS system on the Merkeva tanks is roughly $900,000 per unit (or 27 x N-LAWS)...how many incoming missiles can each APS defeat?
> 
> Lots of questions coming out of this conflict!





Zipperhead99 said:


> It certainly highlights the need for all-arms cooperation, spreadout your vehicles when you can and remove the "death before dismount" attitude of thinking that IFVs are as well protected as tanks.  Even in that video a few pages ago of that Russian armoured column getting ambushed by AT weapons, all the infantry are riding inside the BMPs until the lead tank is hit, THEN they dismount but it is already too late.
> 
> Moving alongside a wooded area like that, the infantry should have been dismounted and sweeping the woods for a potential ambush which leads to another lesson learned, if the West ever finds itself in conflict with an opponent that is lavishly equipped with MANPATS, then the pace of advance must be slowed down, especiallly in built up areas (be they natural or man-made), to allow for these areas to be properly swept by dismounted infantry before moving vehicles through the area.  In such a scenario, we can no longer assume that we can just move around like it is a Sunday afternoon drive and that our armour will protect us from everything that might be thrown against it


so bad situation for Russia as they have to wait unti next December and they aren't able to do replenishment well
how is artillery support going to work in that danger close scenario?

It ties in with all the questions though including the Force 2025 and what about the presence in the Baltic states. Mobility is key but even the Russians light vehicles have struggled in the poor conditions. All Russian vehicles have shown to be vulnerable to light anti tank weapons. I think maybe Leopard 2's might perform better and Abrams better still but an Abrams is running 72 tons vs the 48 tons of Russian armour. I think the Abrams would struggle even on some of the roads. The age old problem of mobility/protection/firepower. I think western APS like Trophy have tested well but yes they can only defeat a limited number of attacks however accompanying infantry will hopefully limit those as well. Its a pickle when any infantryman can defeat a tank nevermind an AFV. Curious how this may affect force structure thinking


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR interior ministry sets up web page to give instructions to Russians or Belarusians @ home (in Russian, Belarusian and Ukrainian) who want to defect & don't want to fight - as well as a bit of cyber security advice.  From the English instructions:


> ... *How to go over to the side of Ukraine?*
> 
> Inform State Border Service of Ukraine or Security Service of Ukraine about your intention to go over to the side of Ukraine. Using Telegram @defenseua_com
> Specify the approximate time and date of the defection, the number of the military personnel who intend to go over to the side of Ukraine, the availability of weapon, reliable contact information
> When at the border areas with Ukraine, the military personnel of the Russian Federation and Republic of Belarus can cross the border alone or in self-organized groups in the area of the nearest border checkpoint, you should have documents that identify your personality and belonging to the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus (power structures of the Russian Federation and Republic of Belarus)
> After crossing the border, the military personnel of the Russian Federation and Republic of Belarus can notify about their intention to go over to the Ukrainian side and notify the government officials or local citizens on the territory of Ukraine.
> Before entering the location (city, town, village, etc) and contacting the civilians, leave the weapon outside the location and inform the government officials about the weapon location later.
> If contacting the representatives of Armed Forces of Ukraine, Territorial Defense Forces of Ukraine, National Police of Ukraine or Security Service of Ukraine:
> 
> Throw the weapon to the side
> Stand up straight
> Raise your hands or a white flag
> Shout loudly “Sdayus’” and the code word “Zubr” or “Aist”
> Inform that you are the citizen of the Russian Federation or Republic of Belarus
> 
> During the communication you should follow all instructions slowly, without sudden movements or jerks ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Late catch here:  on 1 Jan of this year, a pro-RUS amplifier site, doing an encore presentation of a 2016 article, shared this ....


> *    11 Canadian Mercenaries Go Home in Bodybags After “Master Class” in Donbass*
> 
> January 1, 2022  Comments
> 
> Translated by Ollie Richardson
> 03:16:19
> 13/09/2016
> 
> A master-class of “maple leaves” in the fight against militias ended in disaster. A group of at least 20 people (three reconnaissance groups) from the Canadian forces CANSOFCOM tried to attack the militia positions in the area of the Ukrainian punisher operation.
> 
> It ended in disaster for them. The operation was under development without the involvement of the Ukrainian fighters for the demonstration of a “master-class of fighting against terrorists”.
> 
> Those responsible were from the Canadian Security Intelligence Service. The military attache of Canada in Ukraine Colonel Ron Ubbens was in charge of the matter. All this, of course, is unofficial. Visitors were formally assigned to the local Ministry of Health. From the Ukrainian side the operation was supervised by the Secretary of the National Security and Defencey Council Oleksandr Turchynov.
> 
> As is known, there is a large and influential Ukrainian Diaspora in Canada, the backbone of which are children and grandchildren of Bandera scum, who fled overseas after the war. That, of course, affects the degree of Russophobia in the leadership of the country. The idea of “anti-terrorist cooperation” emerged after a two-day visit to Kiev by the Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau.
> 
> The “Maple” special troops were thrown into combat in the ATO zone on the day after their arrival, because of the fear of information leakage. Three reconnaissance groups were moved to the places of the militia’s deployment. They had to stealthily penetrate the positions of the Donetsk militia to cleanse the checkpoints and damage military infrastructure. However, reality harshly intervened in the conduct of the bloody “master class”.
> 
> Group “1” consisting of six people was completely destroyed by a heavy machine gun. Group “3” of seven people found themselves in contact with a minefield, then immediately came under sniper fire. Five people are listed as dead. Group “2” managed to enter LPR territory unnoticed, but learning about the fate of their colleagues, they hastily returned to their previous position, coming under fire upon return.
> 
> The bodies of the Canadians were taken to Kiev and on the same day were sent to Canada via a special flight ...


Text also attached if you don't want to link to a RUS fan boy site.


----------



## TheProfessional

The Bread Guy said:


> Late catch here:  on 1 Jan of this year, a pro-RUS amplifier site, doing an encore presentation of a 2016 article, shared this ....
> 
> Text also attached if you don't want to link to a RUS fan boy site.


Pro-Russian news once claimed 11 Canadian commandos died in Ukraine. That didn't happen.


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Late catch here:  on 1 Jan of this year, a pro-RUS amplifier site, doing an encore presentation of a 2016 article, shared this ....
> 
> Text also attached if you don't want to link to a RUS fan boy site.


I wonder if anyone actually believes this crap?


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> I wonder if anyone actually believes this crap?


Russians


----------



## Dana381

Fishbone Jones said:


> How do you print billions of dollars "in error?"
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Bank Of Canada Is Printing Money Like Crazy
> 
> 
> Chart shows massive surge in money printing, far outpacing comparable nations on a relative basis. Amid the current crisis, many countries have seen increased central bank activity. With business activity pulling back, government spending has surged, and countries around the world are going...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> spencerfernando.com



Are they actively trying to crash the Canadian economy? Because that is how you do it..


----------



## Furniture

KevinB said:


> I wonder if anyone actually believes this crap?


Yes... Sadly, many of them are firearms owners on a large firearms forum in Canada. 

It's amazing how many times people there have told me all about the undisclosed hundreds of deaths in Afghanistan, or some other crazy foolishness that supports their belief that everything the government does is evil. 

Right now many of them are pushing the Ukraine biolabs line, or other Russian propaganda, while believing they are the real Canadian patriots. 

Now, to be fair to them, governments lie all the time, and our current government has gone out of it's way to make people who disagree with them enemies, but it's still sad to see.


----------



## MilEME09

Furniture said:


> Yes... Sadly, many of them are firearms owners on a large firearms forum in Canada.
> 
> It's amazing how many times people there have told me all about the undisclosed hundreds of deaths in Afghanistan, or some other crazy foolishness that supports their belief that everything the government does is evil.
> 
> Right now many of them are pushing the Ukraine biolabs line, or other Russian propaganda, while believing they are the real Canadian patriots.
> 
> Now, to be fair to them, governments lie all the time, and our current government has gone out of it's way to make people who disagree with them enemies, but it's still sad to see.


I swear we need to teach classes in school about how to fact check information, and verify sources in order to be less susceptible to false information.


----------



## Zipperhead99

A good excuse for Eastern European NATO states to get rid of their old Soviet era weapons and for a great cause!









						Ukraine is getting Russian-made weapons to defeat its Russian invaders
					

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly called on NATO to declare a no-fly zone over the country as allies have sent weapons to Ukraine.




					ca.news.yahoo.com
				




I think that the Russian are forgetting that the US and NATO are not sending convoys directing into Ukraine, the Ukrainians are picking up the weapons at the border and moving it themselves









						Russia warns US that convoys 'pumping Ukraine with weapons' will be considered 'legitimate targets'
					

Several NATO members like the US and UK have sent Ukraine military-grade products such as anti-aircraft missile systems and anti-tank missile systems.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Via a Russian friend of mine:
 Rus MoD video of landing operation on Gostomel airfield (initial stage), including video from helmet camera. Note female voice ( automatic voice informer in Soviet/Russian AF is traditionally female voice, to stand out from regular radio exchange)  warning pilots about Stinger attacks.


----------



## Furniture

Colin Parkinson said:


> Via a Russian friend of mine:
> Rus MoD video of landing operation on Gostomel airfield (initial stage), including video from helmet camera. Note female voice ( automatic voice informer in Soviet/Russian AF is traditionally female voice, to stand out from regular radio exchange)  warning pilots about Stinger attacks.


Anyone have a guess as to how well one of our WASF teams would hold up against that?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Furniture said:


> Anyone have a guess as to how well one of our WASF teams would hold up against that?


Something something "NORAD". Something something "Punching above our weight."


----------



## blacktriangle

MilEME09 said:


> I swear we need to teach classes in school about how to fact check information, and verify sources in order to be less susceptible to false information.


If you teach people to think critically, you won't have to. They will do that for themselves.


----------



## dimsum

Furniture said:


> Anyone have a guess as to how well one of our WASF teams would hold up against that?


If WASF is supposed to be the Wing _Auxiliary_ Security Force, what is the actual security force then?


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502667832106098694
> Russia loosing more AA kit, I can't imagine their air defense plan is anything but ad hoc at this point.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502664863662936069
> And the need for larger POW camps



And the stronger the Ukrainian GBAD System becomes, meaning less need for the Ukrainian Air Force to fly.

Fratricide.  Russian Tor (in Ukrainian hands) knocks down Russian Iskander.  And it didn't cost the Ukrainian taxpayer a penny.


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Or.... maybe the Ukrainians are competent, fighting hard and doing a really good job 😉
> 
> One of the things that bugs me about this line is that it doesn't give credit where credit is due to the Ukrainians who are the ones actually fighting and dying.
> 
> In other words, it's more for consumption of Western audiences.  We can sit back and pat ourselves on the back about how superior we are.
> 
> Net benefit for us is we clearly have no need to increase Defence spending 😉



I think it is one of those both things are true situations:

The Ukrainians are fighting hard and effectively.
The Russians aren't who we thought they were.

It'd still be a fool who believes you don't have to prepare for war.  Anywhere, anytime with anyone.


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> In a contested airspace like that? They'd probably get a missile up their tailpipe.



I'm pretty sure Berlin 1948 was contested airspace.  No?


----------



## GR66

Zipperhead99 said:


> It certainly highlights the need for all-arms cooperation, spreadout your vehicles when you can and remove the "death before dismount" attitude of thinking that IFVs are as well protected as tanks.  Even in that video a few pages ago of that Russian armoured column getting ambushed by AT weapons, all the infantry are riding inside the BMPs until the lead tank is hit, THEN they dismount but it is already too late.
> 
> Moving alongside a wooded area like that, the infantry should have been dismounted and sweeping the woods for a potential ambush which leads to another lesson learned, if the West ever finds itself in conflict with an opponent that is lavishly equipped with MANPATS, then the pace of advance must be slowed down, especiallly in built up areas (be they natural or man-made), to allow for these areas to be properly swept by dismounted infantry before moving vehicles through the area.  In such a scenario, we can no longer assume that we can just move around like it is a Sunday afternoon drive and that our armour will protect us from everything that might be thrown against it


Doesn't sound much like a Manoeuvreist's dream does it?


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> I swear we need to teach classes in school about how to fact check information, and verify sources in order to be less susceptible to false information.



Just teach kids how to read and how to prepare a logical argument

Don't teach them facts by rote.  Teach them that experts are a source of opinion, a resource.  And that only.

They'll figure the rest out themselves


----------



## Zipperhead99

GR66 said:


> Doesn't sound much like a Manoeuvreist's dream does it?


Definitely not, but what else can an army do in that situation?  To phrase "speed kills" has a whole new meaning to it!


----------



## Zipperhead99

Yes, for $3,000 a month (if you live that long) you can join the Russian Army that treats its own soldiers like dirt so you, as an outsider, will definitely get better treatment 









						Putin offers battle-hardened fighters from the Middle East up to $3,000 a month to reinforce Russia's invasion of Ukraine, say reports
					

Putin has approved 16,000 volunteers from the Middle East to be deployed alongside the Russian military after strong Ukrainian resistance.




					www.businessinsider.com
				




As any smart dictator would do, surround yourself with yes men and sycophants.  Think the only way Russia is getting rid of Putin is if the public rise up and say enough which, at the least, could force the hand of Putin's buddies to have him step down 









						Chances of Putin being ousted in coup rising, but 'Musketeers' and a culture of fear will protect him, expert says
					

A coup is increasingly likely but a culture of fear and a band of "Musketeers" is likely to protect Putin from being overthrown, an expert said.




					www.businessinsider.com
				












						US is said to believe Ukraine can keep control of Kyiv for another 4 to 6 weeks, according to NBC News
					

Before the invasion, Russian President Vladimir Putin is thought to have believed his forces would capture Ukraine's capital in a matter of days.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## Brad Sallows

> so bad situation for Russia as they have to wait unti next December



No.  Ground usually firms up enough by sometime in May.


----------



## MilEME09

Brad Sallows said:


> No.  Ground usually firms up enough by sometime in May.


I don't think there will be a Russian Army left by may


----------



## Brad Sallows

Perhaps.  Main point is, don't draw too many lessons from people who made a strategic error that severely limits their tactical options, which in turn severely limits operational options.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> I wonder if anyone actually believes this crap?


As long as it raises any doubts, mission at least somewhat accomplished.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Zipperhead99 said:


> Yes, for $3,000 a month (if you live that long) you can join the Russian Army that treats its own soldiers like dirt so you, as an outsider, will definitely get better treatment
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Putin offers battle-hardened fighters from the Middle East up to $3,000 a month to reinforce Russia's invasion of Ukraine, say reports
> 
> 
> Putin has approved 16,000 volunteers from the Middle East to be deployed alongside the Russian military after strong Ukrainian resistance.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.businessinsider.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As any smart dictator would do, surround yourself with yes men and sycophants.  Think the only way Russia is getting rid of Putin is if the public rise up and say enough which, at the least, could force the hand of Putin's buddies to have him step down
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Chances of Putin being ousted in coup rising, but 'Musketeers' and a culture of fear will protect him, expert says
> 
> 
> A coup is increasingly likely but a culture of fear and a band of "Musketeers" is likely to protect Putin from being overthrown, an expert said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.businessinsider.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> US is said to believe Ukraine can keep control of Kyiv for another 4 to 6 weeks, according to NBC News
> 
> 
> Before the invasion, Russian President Vladimir Putin is thought to have believed his forces would capture Ukraine's capital in a matter of days.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.businessinsider.com



That $3000/ month more than the UKR is offering their volunteers...


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Kirkhill said:


> I think it is one of those both things are true situations:
> 
> The Ukrainians are fighting hard and effectively.
> The Russians aren't who we thought they were.
> 
> It'd still be a fool who believes you don't have to prepare for war.  Anywhere, anytime with anyone.


If this was an actual attack on Russia, I think you see Russians fighting just as hard, perhaps not as effectively though.


----------



## Zipperhead99

daftandbarmy said:


> That $3000/ month more than the UKR is offering their volunteers...


True that...wonder if they will actually get paid, or if it will be the "your check is in the mail" sort of thing.  Then again, considering the reported casualties the Russian Army is taking, it is very likely that most of those volunteers will live long enough to get paid.  Still, $3k a month is probably better than what the average Russian soldier gets paid so they must be pretty desperate to offer that kind of cash to get foreigners to sign up.


----------



## kev994

dimsum said:


> If WASF is supposed to be the Wing _Auxiliary_ Security Force, what is the actual security force then?


The commissionaires?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Zipperhead99 said:


> True that...wonder if they will actually get paid, or if it will be the "your check is in the mail" sort of thing.  Then again, considering the reported casualties the Russian Army is taking, it is very likely that most of those volunteers will live long enough to get paid.  Still, $3k a month is probably better than what the average Russian soldier gets paid so they must be pretty desperate to offer that kind of cash to get foreigners to sign up.



Meanwhile, the Gurkhas be like:


----------



## KevinB

Zipperhead99 said:


> True that...wonder if they will actually get paid, or if it will be the "your check is in the mail" sort of thing.  Then again, considering the reported casualties the Russian Army is taking, it is very likely that most of those volunteers will live long enough to get paid.  Still, $3k a month is probably better than what the average Russian soldier gets paid so they must be pretty desperate to offer that kind of cash to get foreigners to sign up.


You do not need to pay dead people…
  My guess is that’s the Russian theory.


----------



## TacticalTea

Czech_pivo said:


> You like having more than 27 marit
> 
> Your observations smack of the much older question of; English Long Bowman vs French Heavy Calvary/Knight and crappy, muddy field.
> 
> I’d argue they are two sides of the same coin. The Long Bowman is the AT team and the Heavy Calvary/Knight is the T-72/Leopard 2A6.


Great minds think alike. Kept thinking of Crécy, reading through OSINT reports.


The Bread Guy said:


> Given the volume, though, I suspect they'd appreciate _some_ help, but agreed they don't necessarily need _military_ help.
> 
> Meanwhile, first OS estimate of UKR casualties coming out of a briefing w/UKR's president today, along with a few other stats (link to RUS independent media) ....


They could probably use a field ambulance or two, a tpt company and construction engineers for refugee/POW camps. Definitely not just a gaggle of combat arms troops distracted from their Op Reassurance deterrence task just to stand around and eat up food, fuel and accommodations...

Also, anyone have any idea what's Ukraine's best bet against Russian missile artillery? Pushing air superiority with SOF anti-AD hits to enable deep airstrikes? Anything better/more comprehensive? This is far outside my field of expertise...


----------



## Haggis

Zipperhead99 said:


> Yes, for $3,000 a month (if you live that long) you can join the Russian Army that treats its own soldiers like dirt so you, as an outsider, will definitely get better treatment


How many of those well paid "foreign soldiers" will suffer a catastrophic case of lead poisoning to the back of the head once they alienate the conscripted Russian soldiers?  Or, how many conscripts will surrender or defect and leave the fighting to the foreigners?


----------



## The Bread Guy

The Bread Guy said:


> Given the volume, though, I suspect they'd appreciate _some_ help, but agreed they don't necessarily need _military_ help.
> 
> Meanwhile, first OS estimate of UKR casualties coming out of a briefing w/UKR's president today, along with a few other stats (link to RUS independent media) ....


A little more triangulation of the "about 1300" today, compared to a couple of days ago, with UKR's DefMin saying they had more civvy cas than military (source).. U.N. that day said this ...


> From 4 a.m. on 24 February 2022, when the Russian Federation’s armed attack against Ukraine started, to 24:00 midnight on 11 March 2022 (local time), the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) recorded 1,581 civilian casualties in the country: 579 killed and 1,002 injured ...


... so the numbers are in the same ballpark and/or the info-machine is keeping the messaging consistent.


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> Meanwhile, the Gurkhas be like:




I remember reading about some of the locals distributing business cards with Failed PSC on them. (Public Service Course)
They had a leg up on those that didn't attend PSC classes.  

I wonder how many could claimed Failed Gurkha Selection.


----------



## Dana381

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has created NATO's watershed moment - Breaking Defense
					

A former chairman of the joint chiefs and two former supreme allied commanders of NATO, among others, lay out how it has come to the point Russia felt it could invade Ukraine.




					breakingdefense.com
				




Interesting artical from Breaking defense

While not anywhere in this artical it got me thinking, prior to the Ukraine invasion China was harrassing Taiwan pretty hard. Now it seems they have gone quiet. I wonder if Putin and Xi had agreed to attack Ukraine and Taiwan at the same time to keep the west busy but Xi left Putin Hanging.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Zipperhead99 said:


> True that...wonder if they will actually get paid, or if it will be the "your check is in the mail" sort of thing.  Then again, considering the reported casualties the Russian Army is taking, it is very likely that most of those volunteers will live long enough to get paid.  Still, $3k a month is probably better than what the average Russian soldier gets paid so they must be pretty desperate to offer that kind of cash to get foreigners to sign up.


Considering all the blood diamonds the Russians have been securing in Africa and elsewhere, who even says it will be in cash.  

Perhaps, it'll be like EO in the 90s and the Mercs get paid with mineral concessions?


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Considering all the blood diamonds the Russians have been securing in Africa and elsewhere, who even says it will be in cash.
> 
> Perhaps, it'll be like EO in the 90s and the Mercs get paid with mineral concessions?


Lead, with a copper jacket… 
  Or in Russian terms, a lead core with a mild steel jacket maybe even lightly copper washed.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

KevinB said:


> Lead, with a copper jacket…
> Or in Russian terms, a lead core with a mild steel jacket maybe even lightly copper washed.


They'll use old corrosive ammo, it's cheaper 😉


----------



## Czech_pivo

Not sure if any of you has seen this news or can collaborate it.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502804943941648391


----------



## Good2Golf

If it wasn’t looking personal before it certainly is now.  First it was MGen Andrei Sukhovestsky DCom 41 CAA, then MGen (then Col in Crimea in 2014) Vitaly Gerasimov, COS 41 CAA (and nephew of RF CGS Anatoly Gerasimov) killed in Karkhiv, then much ( most? all?) of 31st GAAB BTG gets read the news…ouch.


----------



## Remius

The Weakness of the Despot
					

An expert on Stalin discusses Putin, Russia, and the West.




					www.newyorker.com
				




A really good take on Russia and a bit on China in relation to this.


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> Not sure if any of you has seen this news or can collaborate it.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502804943941648391


I've seen multiple Ukrainian sources saying similar things.


----------



## Altair

Dana381 said:


> Russia's invasion of Ukraine has created NATO's watershed moment - Breaking Defense
> 
> 
> A former chairman of the joint chiefs and two former supreme allied commanders of NATO, among others, lay out how it has come to the point Russia felt it could invade Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> breakingdefense.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Interesting artical from Breaking defense
> 
> While not anywhere in this artical it got me thinking, prior to the Ukraine invasion China was harrassing Taiwan pretty hard. Now it seems they have gone quiet. I wonder if Putin and Xi had agreed to attack Ukraine and Taiwan at the same time to keep the west busy but Xi left Putin Hanging.
> 
> View attachment 69433


Any such naval buildup would have been hard to miss, so no, not likely. 

China is probably doing some soul searching. They have even less practical war fighting experience than Russia, they have to pull off a more complex operation combining naval, air and land assets, up against some of the most fortified beaches on the planet, and now they are seeing that the USA and the west will do the one two punch of sanction the hell out of their economy while dumping literal tons of AT and AA assets while feeding real time satellite information to the Taiwanese. 

China has to be thinking that if Russia is being exposed as a paper tiger in Ukraine, what could the Taiwanese backed by the west do to them, and at what cost?


----------



## Kirkhill

Good2Golf said:


> If it wasn’t looking personal before it certainly is now.  First it was MGen Andrei Sukhovestsky DCom 41 CAA, then MGen (then Col in Crimea in 2014) Vitaly Gerasimov, COS 41 CAA (and nephew of RF CGS Anatoly Gerasimov) killed in Karkhiv, then much ( most? all?) of 31st GAAB BTG gets read the news…ouch.



FSB seniors taking long staycations.

Army seniors taking personal command of BTGs at the front.
VDV seniors being dropped back into the fight.

Vlad offering the honourable alternative to a bullet in the neck?

Go and die or be killed?


----------



## TacticalTea

Czech_pivo said:


> Not sure if any of you has seen this news or can collaborate it.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502804943941648391


Just a friendly tip; it's ''corroborate''. ;P 

But that's great news! Hope it's true!

Feels kinda funny how distinctly satisfying it is to hear the news of enemy officers' demise, as an officer. Another parallel to Crécy where 1500 officers (nobles) died.


----------



## Kirkhill

TacticalTea said:


> Just a friendly tip; it's ''corroborate''. ;P
> 
> But that's great news! Hope it's true!
> 
> Feels kinda funny how distinctly satisfying it is to hear the news of enemy officers' demise, as an officer. Another parallel to Crécy where 1500 officers (nobles) died.



This?









						Third Russian general 'killed' in Ukraine in latest blow to Putin
					

Major General Andrei Kolesnikov of the 29th Combined Arms Army became the latest high profile casualty of the war today in another blow to the Kremlin.




					www.dailymail.co.uk


----------



## Kirkhill

And









						Russian general killed and clutch of spy chiefs arrested
					

Detentions could signal start of purge of FSB intelligence officials who provided intelligence before Ukraine invasion




					www.thenationalnews.com


----------



## MilEME09

Morning will be interesting, by all accounts, Russian forces except for the VDV and Spetsnaz lack night vision gear. So Ukrainian forces are using advanced night fighting gear from the west to their full advantage to launch counter attacks and raid at night.


----------



## TacticalTea

Kirkhill said:


> And
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian general killed and clutch of spy chiefs arrested
> 
> 
> Detentions could signal start of purge of FSB intelligence officials who provided intelligence before Ukraine invasion
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thenationalnews.com


Yeah, and did you see that video of Ukrainian SWAT arresting a senior spy? Pretty hectic, but it feels good to see em striking the hammer of justice.


----------



## Kirkhill

Need to start keeping a tally.


----------



## Kirkhill

Department of Operative Information (DOI)Service of Operational Information and International RelationsFSB5 For IntHd11-Mar​Col Gen Sergei BesedaDetainedFSB5 For IntDHd11-Mar​Anatoly BolyukhDetainedVDV31 Gds AAB BTGEntire Command12-Mar​DeadArmy41 CAADComMGen Andrei SukhovetskyDead41 CAACOSMGen Vitaly GerasimovDead29 CAACom11-Mar​MGen Andrei KolesnikovDead

Boss to Foreign Int guys:

Time for a vacation.
You said they would be welcoming us!


----------



## Blackadder1916

Kirkhill said:


> I'm pretty sure Berlin 1948 was contested airspace.  No?



No, it wasn't.  The Berlin Airlift operated in the three air corridors that had been previously established by agreement among the Four Powers and use was coordinated by the quadripartite Berlin Air Safety Center.  Though the Soviets may have harassed flights of the Western Allies, in most cases it was more annoying than anything else.


----------



## Kirkhill

Blackadder1916 said:


> No, it wasn't.  The Berlin Airlift operated in the three air corridors that had been previously established by agreement among the Four Powers and use was coordinated by the quadripartite Berlin Air Safety Center.  Though the Soviets may have harassed flights of the Western Allies, in most cases it was more annoying than anything else.



Thanks.


----------



## Kirkhill

Apparently it is not just the tires that are Chinese knock-offs.

The radios too.









						Invasion hindered by 'serious weaknesses' of Russian military radios
					

Soldiers have reportedly used Chinese hand-held radios, mobile phones and walkie-talkies that undermine their ability to speak in secret




					www.thenationalnews.com
				







> Reports from prisoners of war also suggest that Russian officers fearful of being on the front line have withdrawn beyond 18 kilometres radio range of secure sets, forcing soldiers to use mobile phones.


----------



## dapaterson

Entrepreneurs: Air Serbia is massively increasing service between Moscow and Belgrade.






						Russians using Serbian loophole to avoid EU flights ban | Airline industry | The Guardian
					

Air Serbia has doubled flights between Moscow and Belgrade as country’s planes can cross EU airspace




					amp.theguardian.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Revision, uncorroborated



Department of Operative Information (DOI)Service of Operational Information and International RelationsFSB5 For IntHd11-Mar​Col Gen Sergei BesedaDetainedFSB5 For IntDHd11-Mar​Anatoly BolyukhDetainedRosgvardia &SF141 MB (Chechen)ComdGen Magomed TushaevDeadSparta Bn (neo-Nazi)ComdCol Vladimir ZhogaDeadVDV31 Gds AAB BTGEntire Command12-Mar​Dead247 Gds AARComdCol Konstantin ZizevskyDead11 AAB SepDComLCol Dennis GlebovDeadNavy61 Marine Bde SepLCol Dmitry SafronovDeadArmy29 CAAComd11-Mar​MGen Andrei KolesnikovDead41 CAADComdMGen Andrei SukhovetskyDead41 CAACOSMGen Vitaly GerasimovDead56 CAACOSLCol Yuri AgarkovDead


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502888899332526081

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502894037283581952


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502902615377600513


----------



## The Bread Guy

Today's stats from UKR mil int


----------



## The Bread Guy

RUS:  Westward ho ...








						Russian airstrikes on Ivano-Frankivsk and Yavoriv kill 9 and wound 57 people | Ukraine news - # Bukvy
					

Early Sunday morning Russian missiles hit Ivano-Frankivsk airport and Yavoriv military center near Lviv. Ivano-Frankivsk mayor has not reported any casualties yet, emergency services are working on the site. Lviv region governor claims Russia fired 30 missiles at the Yavoriv military centre...




					bykvu.com
				











						Russian Attack On Base Brings War In Ukraine Right To NATO's Doorstep
					

A Russian air strike hit a Ukrainian military base just a few kilometers from the border with NATO member Poland, killing 35 people and wounding dozens more as Moscow intensifies its offensive across Ukraine, sparking angry protests across Europe.




					www.rferl.org
				











						Some 35 people killed, 134 wounded as result of shelling at Yavoriv training ground – Regional Military Administration
					

According to updated data, as a result of a missile attack on the International Center for Peacekeeping and Security of the Hetman Sahaidachny National Academy of Land Forces in Yavoriv district of Lviv region on Sunday morning, 35 people were killed, and 134 were injured, Head of Lviv Regional...




					en.interfax.com.ua
				











						Airstrike in Lviv region kills nine people, wounds 57 – Kozytsky
					

Head of Lviv Regional Military Administration Maksym Kozytsky reported nine dead and 57 wounded as a result of a missile attack on the International Center for Peacekeeping and Security of the Hetman Sahaidachny National Academy of Land Forces in Yavoriv district of Lviv region on Sunday morning.




					en.interfax.com.ua
				











						Russian missiles hit the International Center for Peacekeeping and Security and Ivano-Frankivsk Airport
					

Today, the Russian occupiers fired missiles at targets in western Ukraine




					mil.in.ua
				




In case Yavoriv doesn't sound familiar to some around here, a reminder from the OP Unifier backgrounder page ....


> May 2021Joint Task Force – Ukraine moved into its new Operation UNIFIER Headquarters located in Kyiv, Ukraine. The mission Headquarters were previously located at the International Peace and Security Center in Yavoriv.


----------



## The Bread Guy

RUS to BLR:  thanks for the help, neighbour!








						Bodies of Russian Soldiers Filling Up Belarusian Morgues, Residents Say
					

The bodies of Russian soldiers killed in battle in Ukraine are filling up morgues in Belarus, local residents told RFE/RL.




					www.rferl.org
				



This from UKR's General Staff FB feed 


> According to the available information, a large number of russian servicemen wounded in the course of hostilities on the territory of Ukraine are being treated in the medical institutions of the south-eastern region of the Republic of Belarus. There are not enough blood supplies for surgery. Reserves accumulated for the citizens of the Republic of Belarus are used - about 2/3 of the reserve is redirected to the needs of the russian military. The campaign to collect blood among public sector employees and the civilian population was intensified.


Also from the same post


> Due to the losses, the armed forces of the russian federation are forming new units. In particular, the enemy command plans to involve about 1,500 people from the 40th Separate Marine Brigade (Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Pacific Fleet)


----------



## Booter

I find the postmortems of the fights very interesting. The emphasis on combined arms is an eye opener. My army experience here talked a lot about it- but it wasn’t my experience that we did it. That said my army time was mostly spent learning my OFP so my eyes weren’t on the horizon much


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Today's stats from UKR mil int
> View attachment 69439


Anyone else notice that the number of fuel tanks/trucks has remained at 60 for close to a week? Either the Russians have no more (I doubt that), or they’ve learned to hide them more effectively.


----------



## MilEME09

An American journalist has been killed after Russian forces opened fire on a Press vehicle.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502994498602868739


----------



## kev994

Czech_pivo said:


> Anyone else notice that the number of fuel tanks/trucks has remained at 60 for close to a week? Either the Russians have no more (I doubt that), or they’ve learned to hide them more effectively.


Or they’re using Jerry cans because 1 bullet can eventually drain a fuel truck?


----------



## Dana381

Czech_pivo said:


> Anyone else notice that the number of fuel tanks/trucks has remained at 60 for close to a week? Either the Russians have no more (I doubt that), or they’ve learned to hide them more effectively.



Why were these ones not counted? Is it because they were captured and not destroyed?


MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502433157802508288


----------



## MilEME09

Dana381 said:


> Why were these ones not counted? Is it because they were captured and not destroyed?


There may be an effort to capture rather then destroy Russian supplies.

Meanwhile a Russian airstrike hit a housing complex. Likely using dumb bombs, so this probably wasn't the intended target.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503030873163190276


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Dana381 said:


> I wonder why a couple Russian warships haven't run into a submarine torpedo their own anti-shipping mines.



From what sub?  The old Foxtrot they had was seized years ago…


----------



## MilEME09

And this is why OSINT can be scary 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503033056524914688


----------



## Dana381

Eye In The Sky said:


> From what sub?  The old Foxtrot they had was seized years ago…



Any western sub, NATO doesn't want to be caught fighting Russia but if a Russian ship sank everyone would believe they forgot where their mines were based on their overall performance so far


----------



## MilEME09

Looks like Russian engineers need some more training


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503033140331352069


----------



## suffolkowner

Dana381 said:


> Any western sub, NATO doesn't want to be caught fighting Russia but if a Russian ship sank everyone would believe they forgot where their mines were based on their overall performance so far


Is anyone even in the Black Sea? Maybe the Turks? I'm not sure I'd want to be a sub in there as theres only so long you can hide. Thoughts on sub operations in the Black Sea? 

Havent seen much on loitering munitions in this war expected more after Armenia-Azerbaijan. Has anyone seen much from this?
Does the TB2 differ substantially in any way from what you can do with a Reaper or is it just the new kid on the block getting all the attention


----------



## ueo

GR66 said:


> Just in really rough Wikipedia terms....2007 cost of a Leopard 2A6 was $5,740,000.00.  Unit cost of an N-LAW is $33,000.  That means you can buy roughly 174 N-LAWS for the cost of a single Leopard tank.
> 
> What are the logistical support costs of a 4-man AT team in an ATV vs a 4-man tank crew?
> 
> The key thing to remember here though is that in Ukraine we're really only talking defensive operations against an invading armoured force.  Offensive operations are a whole different story.  Armour might be vital in protecting your troops in the advance, but if the enemy has literally dozens of ATGMs for each of your protected vehicles how do you even get to the point where you are able to advance under armour?  Reportedly the Trophy-heavy APS system on the Merkeva tanks is roughly $900,000 per unit (or 27 x N-LAWS)...how many incoming missiles can each APS defeat?
> 
> Lots of questions coming out of this conflict!


One would think that our Lessons Learned folks might have looked at the Egyptian defense of the Mitla Pass. Missle shield worked IDF took some major cas until they learned.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

dimsum said:


> If WASF is supposed to be the Wing _Auxiliary_ Security Force, what is the actual security force then?



The MP Flt and 20 Commissionaires…


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Dana381 said:


> Any western sub, NATO doesn't want to be caught fighting Russia but if a Russian ship sank everyone would believe they forgot where their mines were based on their overall performance so far



Are…are you serious??

I don’t know where to start on this one.  Can you just accept a “no/won’t happen” and everyone can move on?


----------



## MilEME09

Eye In The Sky said:


> Are…are you serious??
> 
> I don’t know where to start on this one.  Can you just accept a “no/won’t happen” and everyone can move on?


Given the success of Ukrainian farmers, maybe we need to toss a couple mark 41s on Ukrainian fishing boats?

Then let the Ukrainian tug boats haul the warships away.


----------



## dapaterson

Eye In The Sky said:


> The MP Flt and 20 Commissionaires…


That's 20 commissionaires spread over three shifts, seven days a week... so five at peak times, two most of the time.  Where one is 47 years old and morbidly obese... and that's the healthy one.


----------



## Dana381

Eye In The Sky said:


> Are…are you serious??
> 
> I don’t know where to start on this one.  Can you just accept a “no/won’t happen” and everyone can move on?



No, it was originally said tongue in cheek.


----------



## MilEME09

Reading some comments on Facebook, it is sad, and ridiculous that when our MND is speaking about Russian war crimes, people are comparing it to the Ottawa protests and saying our government are the dictators....Jesus how our country has fallen....


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> Reading some comments on Facebook, it is sad, and ridiculous that when our MND is speaking about Russian war crimes, people are comparing it to the Ottawa protests and saying our government are the dictators....Jesus how our country has fallen....


Facebook comments are a cesspool. I don't know why I occasionally go back and loot at those, as if expecting anything better. 

It's always the disappointing drivel of ignorant fools.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

MilEME09 said:


> Reading some comments on Facebook, it is sad, and ridiculous that when our MND is speaking about Russian war crimes, people are comparing it to the Ottawa protests and saying our government are the dictators....Jesus how our country has fallen....


Give JT the keys to government in a already authoritarian government and he would very much be a dictator. He has clearly shown that he trends that way, it's only the checks and balances in our system, which are getting strained that prevents him from using more authority on anyone who disagrees with him.


----------



## KevinB

U.S. Commission Urges Biden to Designate Ukraine, Georgia as Major Non-NATO Allies
					

The move would facilitate military and economic support for Kyiv as it battles a brutal Russian offensive.




					foreignpolicy.com


----------



## KevinB

Keep in mind the Turks shot down a Russian fighter in Syria and no one batted in eye.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503053769361272837


----------



## dimsum

MilEME09 said:


> Reading some comments on Facebook, it is sad, and ridiculous that when our MND is speaking about Russian war crimes, people are comparing it to the Ottawa protests and saying our government are the dictators....Jesus how our country has fallen....


There is a non-zero chance that those comments are disinformation posts.  Never read the comments.


----------



## Furniture

dimsum said:


> There is a non-zero chance that those comments are disinformation posts.  Never read the comments.


It's a much higher likelihood that it's someone intentionally baiting an internet fight for entertainment/status.

I know people who post crap all the time that they hope will bait people into responding, just to they can "own" someone online, and signal to their "in" group how righteous they are. 

While the Russians and others definitely add accelerant, the fire exists without their help.


----------



## MilEME09

If true, expect both sides to make plays on the battle field to gain strength at the table. That said I'd trust Russia to use a ceasefire just long enough to reinforce and resupply


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503065335439761415

Edit:

In other news, another convoy hit and bridging equipment captured


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503066219661901836


----------



## dapaterson

#Motivation


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503064001013551114


----------



## Zipperhead99

The Bread Guy said:


> RUS to BLR:  thanks for the help, neighbour!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Bodies of Russian Soldiers Filling Up Belarusian Morgues, Residents Say
> 
> 
> The bodies of Russian soldiers killed in battle in Ukraine are filling up morgues in Belarus, local residents told RFE/RL.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rferl.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This from UKR's General Staff FB feed
> 
> Also from the same post


Belorussians be like....


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Russian Field Kitchen


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503042956206514176


----------



## Colin Parkinson

A ball to keep our eyes on, 110 vessels being potentially idled 









						Will Russia's Tanker Fleet Come To A Halt?
					

Russia’s large fleet of European tankers is starting to stall. Will they shift to the Pacific, where Russian flagged ships don’t appear to be suffering the same difficulties as those...




					gcaptain.com


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> Keep in mind the Turks shot down a Russian fighter in Syria and no one batted in eye.



And apparently UAVs stray off course, even ending up in Zagreb.

Accidents happen.


----------



## MilEME09

Looks like it needs a deep cleaning, lot of those products look like they were taken from grocery stores.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503047769975627777
Apparently the missile attack on the Military base in Eastern Ukraine has killed more than 200 foreign fighters.  Multiple foreign fighters have posted the news to their instagram accounts contradicting the official line that only 35 deaths occurred.


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503047769975627777
> Apparently the missile attack on the Military base in Eastern Ukraine has killed more than 200 foreign fighters.  Multiple foreign fighters have posted the news to their instagram accounts contradicting the official line that only 35 deaths occurred.


Well of course they will down play casualties, we won't get actual numbers till after the war.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> Well of course they will down play casualties, we won't get actual numbers till after the war.


We won't get the actual numbers ever.


----------



## The Bread Guy

dimsum said:


> There is a non-zero chance that those comments are disinformation posts.  Never read the comments.


True, but I'm reading comments on FB and letters to the editor in my own hometown paper written by people I know and (although I stand to be corrected) are not Putin-paid trolls, so the spread is there.


----------



## Remius

If was was Russia, I’d be targeting foreign fighters.  Not sure it will turn people off, but I’d be making a point of it.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

The Bread Guy said:


> True, but I'm reading comments on FB and letters to the editor in my own hometown paper written by people I know and (although I stand to be corrected) are not Putin-paid trolls, so the spread is there.


I don't talk politics or serious stuff on facebook. That's the road to hell if I've ever seen one. Facebook is for family photos and jokes with my friends and family.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> An American journalist has been killed after Russian forces opened fire on a Press vehicle.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502994498602868739


Already being called fake news by a pro-RUS amplifier site








						Fake: Russian Troops Killed a New York Times Journalist
					






					www.stalkerzone.org


----------



## MilEME09

Remius said:


> If was was Russia, I’d be targeting foreign fighters.  Not sure it will turn people off, but I’d be making a point of it.


Foreign fighters is a buzz word, they are still members of the Ukrainian army or territorial defense units so they are legitimate military targets. 

That said I would of thought Ukrains AD net in the west would be better


----------



## Remius

MilEME09 said:


> Foreign fighters is a buzz word, they are still members of the Ukrainian army or territorial defense units so they are legitimate military targets.
> 
> That said I would of thought Ukrains AD net in the west would be better


It’s exactly because it’s a buzz word that would make it a target.  Of course it’s a legit military target but it’s the underlying message not the actual tactical or strategic value that they would be going for.


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> Foreign fighters is a buzz word, they are still members of the Ukrainian army or territorial defense units so they are legitimate military targets.
> 
> That said I would of thought Ukrains AD net in the west would be better


Not if they are shifting assets from the west to the east to strengthen it.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503092295406661645


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Remius said:


> It’s exactly because it’s a buzz word that would make it a target.  Of course it’s a legit military target but it’s the underlying message not the actual tactical or strategic value that they would be going for.


It's making a point is what it is doing.  The missiles probably would have been better spent elsewhere from a military perspective but sometimes opportunistic political opportunities need to be acted upon.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> It's making a point is what it is doing.  The missiles probably would have been better spent elsewhere from a military perspective but sometimes opportunistic political opportunities need to be acted upon.


... or storylines built on ....


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

The Bread Guy said:


> ... or storylines built on ....


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503098245840609288


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

I was just about to post this.  Looks to be a request for equipment.  Probably munitions and replacements for lost war stock.

What Halford Mackinder prophesized and what Americans were so afraid of may soon come to pass:



> Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland; who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island; who rules the World-Island commands the world.
> — Mackinder, _Democratic Ideals and Reality_, p. 150



The blueprint for world domination that spooked America - BBC Ideas

Except it won't be Germany or Russia that dominate the World Island, it will be China.


----------



## HiTechComms

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I was just about to post this.  Looks to be a request for equipment.  Probably munitions and replacements for lost war stock.
> 
> What Halford Mackinder prophesized and what Americans were so afraid of may soon come to pass:
> 
> 
> 
> The blueprint for world domination that spooked America - BBC Ideas
> 
> Except it won't be Germany or Russia that dominate the World Island, it will be China.


BRICs will become a world player. Russia is gone get snug and comfy with China.
The "west" makes up only 20% of the worlds population.  
China is going to be everyone's problem soon enough. This is why Canada good or bad has to secure its energy sources such as pipelines. Canada is one of the few countries that can self sustain natural resources but will we in the name of environmentalism?

German businesses are starting to warn the government of collapse of businesses. Germany being heavy energy based manufacturer is going to be the first one to want to stop this.  This is why Germany and Netherlands said no to further sanctions against Russia. Even in the fine print of the SWIFT sanctions they had excluded raw materials such as energy purchases.  EU bars 7 Russian banks from SWIFT, but spares those in energy


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503096895144669191


----------



## MilEME09

If China gets involved, there will be sanctions, battle lines will be drawn....why does it feel like we are still in the prelude to the main war.....


----------



## Altair

HiTechComms said:


> BRICs will become a world player. Russia is gone get snug and comfy with China.
> The "west" makes up only 20% of the worlds population.
> China is going to be everyone's problem soon enough. This is why Canada good or bad has to secure its energy sources such as pipelines. Canada is one of the few countries that can self sustain natural resources but will we in the name of environmentalism?
> 
> German businesses are starting to warn the government of collapse of businesses. Germany being heavy energy based manufacturer is going to be the first one to want to stop this.  This is why Germany and Netherlands said no to further sanctions against Russia. Even in the fine print of the SWIFT sanctions they had excluded raw materials such as energy purchases.  EU bars 7 Russian banks from SWIFT, but spares those in energy


I will say that I am not the least surprised by this post.


----------



## HiTechComms

MilEME09 said:


> If China gets involved, there will be sanctions, battle lines will be drawn....why does it feel like we are still in the prelude to the main war.....


Not sure about those sanctions. I think China will not get involved but might do the same as the West and supply Russia with weapons and say the same as the west "you guys did it so why can't we".  Game of Tit for Tat.
Game of sanctions with China will be a disaster for the west as they make all our stuff. We already have Chip shortages due to Taiwan but China also makes them, this would collapse most of our Service and Information industry. No more phones, computers, cars, etc.

These are now the secondary consequences of the Sanctions.

I wonder with the high prices of Oil and Wheat, which are we going to dedicated to transporting via rail. I remember farmers in Sask, Alberta, Manitoba complaining about letting their crops rot due to low prices and transportation of oil. Economics is Trade offs. It will be at least 6-12 months before we see the results of these actions. To bad we don't have those fun tubular things to transport the black gold. Oh well hindsight 20/20.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

HiTechComms said:


> BRICs will become a world player. Russia is gone get snug and comfy with China.
> The "west" makes up only 20% of the worlds population.
> China is going to be everyone's problem soon enough. This is why Canada good or bad has to secure its energy sources such as pipelines. Canada is one of the few countries that can self sustain natural resources but will we in the name of environmentalism?
> 
> German businesses are starting to warn the government of collapse of businesses. Germany being heavy energy based manufacturer is going to be the first one to want to stop this.  This is why Germany and Netherlands said no to further sanctions against Russia. Even in the fine print of the SWIFT sanctions they had excluded raw materials such as energy purchases.  EU bars 7 Russian banks from SWIFT, but spares those in energy


And none of the BRICS countries have explicitly gone against Russia.









						Bolsonaro won't condemn Putin, says Brazil will remain neutral over invasion
					

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro on Sunday declined to condemn Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, while departing from his government's official stance at the United Nations to say Brazil would remain neutral.




					www.reuters.com
				












						The Democracy Turning Its Back on Ukraine
					

For reasons to do with history and strategy, India will not abandon Russia.




					www.theatlantic.com
				












						Russia counts on sanctions help from China as US warns Beijing
					

Russia says sanctions have prevented access to $300bn of Moscow’s $640bn gold, foreign exchange reserves.




					www.aljazeera.com
				












						Russia's reengagement with Africa pays off – DW – 07/26/2022
					

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is on a four-nation tour to Africa. The trip is part of Russia's ongoing charm offensive on the continent to shore up support.




					amp.dw.com
				




The only one to vote in favour of the UN Gen Assembly resolution was Brazil.  The political problems coming to the surface due to this are immense.  

Look at a map of the vote as well and it paints a different picture:



Russia has more supporters than we think it does.  I also found it interesting that Georgia, itself a victim of Russian aggression, didn't show up to the vote.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> If China gets involved, there will be sanctions, battle lines will be drawn....why does it feel like we are still in the prelude to the main war.....


This is why I continue to shake my head when people say that China and Russia don't like one another.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

HiTechComms said:


> Not sure about those sanctions. I think China will not get involved but might do the same as the West and supply Russia with weapons and say the same as the west "you guys did it so why can't we".  Game of Tit for Tat.
> Game of sanctions with China will be a disaster for the west as they make all our stuff. We already have Chip shortages due to Taiwan but China also makes them, this would collapse most of our Service and Information industry. No more phones, computers, cars, etc.
> 
> These are now the secondary consequences of the Sanctions.
> 
> I wonder with the high prices of Oil and Wheat, which are we going to dedicated to transporting via rail. I remember farmers in Sask, Alberta, Manitoba complaining about letting their crops rot due to low prices and transportation of oil. Economics is Trade offs. It will be at least 6-12 months before we see the results of these actions. To bad we don't have those fun tubular things to transport the black gold. Oh well hindsight 20/20.


There is a great article in Barron's about the potential economic and other consequences of this war.  Unfortunately you'll need to pay (like I do) to access the full article:









						Putin’s War Will Change the World. Here’s How.
					

Today, the U.S. and its allies are feeling the pain of trying to isolate Russia. But the postwar world order could enhance the benefits of globalization while marginalizing tyrants and their cronies.




					www.barrons.com


----------



## Altair

Humphrey Bogart said:


> And none of the BRICS countries have explicitly gone against Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Bolsonaro won't condemn Putin, says Brazil will remain neutral over invasion
> 
> 
> Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro on Sunday declined to condemn Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, while departing from his government's official stance at the United Nations to say Brazil would remain neutral.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Democracy Turning Its Back on Ukraine
> 
> 
> For reasons to do with history and strategy, India will not abandon Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theatlantic.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia counts on sanctions help from China as US warns Beijing
> 
> 
> Russia says sanctions have prevented access to $300bn of Moscow’s $640bn gold, foreign exchange reserves.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.aljazeera.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia's reengagement with Africa pays off – DW – 07/26/2022
> 
> 
> Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is on a four-nation tour to Africa. The trip is part of Russia's ongoing charm offensive on the continent to shore up support.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> amp.dw.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The only one to vote in favour of the UN Gen Assembly resolution was Brazil.  The political problems coming to the surface due to this are immense.
> 
> Look at a map of the vote as well and it paints a different picture:
> 
> View attachment 69453
> 
> Russia has more supporters than we think it does.  I also found it interesting that Georgia, itself a victim of Russian aggression, didn't show up to the vote.


I don't thing Abstaining is a sign of a friend, so much as someone who doesn't want to pick sides.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Altair said:


> I don't thing Abstaining is a sign of a friend, so much as someone who doesn't want to pick sides.


Nations don't have friends but they do have interests.

I suspect the long shadow of Uncle Sam still looms large in South America.


----------



## dapaterson

Para riggers in Russia, apparently, are not quite as industrious as the VDV might want.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503084360815108103


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503117319408697345


----------



## HiTechComms

Humphrey Bogart said:


> There is a great article in Barron's about the potential economic and other consequences of this war.  Unfortunately you'll need to pay (like I do) to access the full article:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Putin’s War Will Change the World. Here’s How.
> 
> 
> Today, the U.S. and its allies are feeling the pain of trying to isolate Russia. But the postwar world order could enhance the benefits of globalization while marginalizing tyrants and their cronies.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.barrons.com


Thank you for actually engaging in a conversation about this.  Simply stating facts makes people upset sometimes but there is a bigger economic conflict that is happening most people are not seeing. India is even now considering rupee to rubble (making fun of ruble) conversion. This might speak wider for end of Petro Dollar and intro Petro Ruble or Wheat Ruble?.  Russia and China has been stock piling gold as well. 

I've been speaking with ex colleagues that work in IT sector in the Oil industry and they are having huge problems with hardware. Not sure if we can build pipelines any way at this time. I mean Enbridge was dropping half a billion year on IT in 2013 and it was only a 16 billion dollar company now they are 32 billion dollar company. The lead times for hardware now are like 6 months, the amount of SCADA equipment needed for a modern pipeline are crazy and prices are skyrocketing.

Canada has very little trade with Asia in comparison and its a good opportunity for Canada to solidify it self as world energy power but will we? I can tell you one thing that will most likely happen.. Any protest on railways like pre pandemic will be met with swift Law enforcement and resolution. It would also help Europe to become less independent on Russia for energy if Canada could facilitate that, and it would actually help Ukrainians. 

Been looking at the markets world wide and there are trends emerging. On a side note I am not liking the fact that my savings are being eaten up by inflation.

Economics -> Individuality ->  Social Standings -> Political Standings -> (Economics) Standings of peoples opinion cycle.

As for South America. I agree the American shadow is definitely there and its not favorable. This is why South American countries are distancing them selves.

If you are also interested in Historical contexts. Pandemics -> Wars, Decline of Economic Power Players -> Wars with upstarts.

Agreed on the Interests parts as well, Canada has its own and it needs to secure them. I am and always will be pro Canadian interests.  Canada comes first then my birth country.


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502988886624161795


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503126946372362240


----------



## daftandbarmy

Wes Clark, making sense....

'Ukraine is simply the first battle': Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Wesley Clark interview​


----------



## Brad Sallows

> This is why I continue to shake my head when people say that China and Russia don't like one another.



They don't.  "Let's you and him fight" is a time-honoured strategy for preserving one's strength while competitors exhaust each other.  I suppose China is perfectly happy to let Russia burn away some of its military, economic, and diplomatic power.


----------



## suffolkowner

Brad Sallows said:


> They don't.  "Let's you and him fight" is a time-honoured strategy for preserving one's strength while competitors exhaust each other.  I suppose China is perfectly happy to let Russia burn away some of its military, economic, and diplomatic power.


Its not like the ChiComs haven't done that before.

The fact that Russia may be looking for equipment from the Chinese suggests to me that Ukraines reports of Russian equipment losses may be accurate


----------



## Remius

suffolkowner said:


> Its not like the ChiComs haven't done that before.
> 
> The fact that Russia may be looking for equipment from the Chinese suggests to me that Ukraines reports of Russian equipment losses may be accurate


Maybe China wants to see how its equipment matches up…


----------



## OldSolduer

dapaterson said:


> Para riggers in Russia, apparently, are not quite as industrious as the VDV might want.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503084360815108103


An old saying - They pretend to pay us, we pretend to work.


----------



## HiTechComms

By all accounts it appears that the strategy of Russians are now quite clear. There is no way in hell they can hold onto Ukraine, economically or militarily. This has now turned into tried and tested scorched earth policy. They are now simply just wrecking everything.  They will turn Ukraine into smoking crater until the Ukrainians negotiate on Russia's terms. 

They will use the encirclement and artillery to just rain down fire from a safe distance.


----------



## Altair

HiTechComms said:


> By all accounts it appears that the strategy of Russians are now quite clear. There is no way in hell they can hold onto Ukraine, economically or militarily. This has now turned into tried and tested scorched earth policy. They are now simply just wrecking everything.  They will turn Ukraine into smoking crater until the Ukrainians negotiate on Russia's terms.
> 
> They will use the encirclement and artillery to just rain down fire from a safe distance.


Ukraine will just be rebuilt by europe, its a stupid strategy.


----------



## Remius

Altair said:


> Ukraine will just be rebuilt by europe, its a stupid strategy.


The strategy they had failed.  And failed spectacularly.  So now they are resorting to just smashing stuff. 





__





						Subscribe to read | Financial Times
					

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication




					www.ft.com
				




A good summary.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Remius said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Subscribe to read | Financial Times
> 
> 
> News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ft.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A good summary.


Over the paywall link


----------



## The Bread Guy

Another factor to throw into the CHN-UKR-RUS stew:  according to USA state media (culled from wire service reports), China seems to also like getting some stuff from UKR that RUS doesn't want to give them ....








						Ukraine Conflict Threatens China’s Access to Military Technology
					

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is likely to threaten one of China’s most secretive, but important relationships in recent years. China has purchased technology for its growing military from Ukraine.




					learningenglish.voanews.com


----------



## suffolkowner

Remius said:


> Maybe China wants to see how its equipment matches up…


Have we seen any evidence of active protection systems engaging Javelins etc..? Or are the Russian tanks uneqipped?

I think if you drive anything down a road with no infantry support its going to end the same way


----------



## KevinB

suffolkowner said:


> Have we seen any evidence of active protection systems engaging Javelins etc..? Or are the Russian tanks uneqipped?
> 
> I think if you drive anything down a road with no infantry support its going to end the same way


The theory of APS is much easier than implementing.  Despite Russian claims I cannot see them actually having an APS on anything.    

  The working envelope for an APS is pretty tough on an AFV. Consider THAAD, MEADS, Patriot etc are effectively a static APS for an area - you then need to miniaturize it, ruggedize it, make it work on a moving system…


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499381363010682881

Hope Ukraine manages to kill this guy

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503156666090795011


----------



## MilEME09

When OSINT has your rad Freq.....you messed up


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503161905195540481


----------



## HiTechComms

Altair said:


> Ukraine will just be rebuilt by europe, its a stupid strategy.


When they did that to Warsaw during WW2 it worked out for the commies. They let 300k people die fighting Nazi's while they sat across the river. Then they bombarded the shit out of them after. 50 years of occupation and Warsaw was a smoking crater for decades after.

I cannot speak on behalf of EU but its to be seen how they will invest in Ukraine. Not sure how much they tried investing prior to the conflict. 

Its still a horrible strategy.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

MilEME09 said:


> When OSINT has your rad Freq.....you messed up
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503161905195540481


They have been getting hit with EW attacks for the entire campaign. One HAM radio operator in PA used his high power transmitter to disable a BTG CP by blasting the Ukrainian national anthem continually for 7 hours... until it ceased to be a CP and was replaced by a smoking crater.


----------



## markppcli

suffolkowner said:


> Have we seen any evidence of active protection systems engaging Javelins etc..? Or are the Russian tanks uneqipped?
> 
> I think if you drive anything down a road with no infantry support its going to end the same way


Soft or hard kill aps ? The reality is that effective APS engagements are just going to be less “repotable” simply because they’re just one possible reason for a miss as opposed to a hit which is easily definable.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Where does the Chechen boogyman mystique come from?


----------



## Zipperhead99

markppcli said:


> Soft or hard kill aps ? The reality is that effective APS engagements are just going to be less “repotable” simply because they’re just one possible reason for a miss as opposed to a hit which is easily definable.


Also, any of the pictures of destroyed/abandoned/captured Russian tanks have the ERA bricks, but I have not seen any APS systems on them so it might seem that such protective systems are not widely distributed to the Russian armoured force


----------



## Zipperhead99

Jarnhamar said:


> Where does the Chechen boogyman mystique come from?


Maybe Kadyrov was given the same "honorable death in battle" or "bullet in the back of the head" ultimatum that Putin has given to his generals (j/k)


----------



## Zipperhead99

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503117319408697345


Interesting that ISW reports that Russia is pulling troops out of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabkah reinforce efforts in Ukraine.  This, and employing Middle Easterners, really show signs of desperation and heavy loses*. * I also noticed that ISW the past couple of days is no longer assessing a potential amphibious op near Odessa as they were previously, seems that threat has dissipated.


----------



## MilEME09

rmc_wannabe said:


> They have been getting hit with EW attacks for the entire campaign. One HAM radio operator in PA used his high power transmitter to disable a BTG CP by blasting the Ukrainian national anthem continually for 7 hours... until it ceased to be a CP and was replaced by a smoking crater.


Have a source for this story? That's comedy gold


----------



## Dana381

rmc_wannabe said:


> They have been getting hit with EW attacks for the entire campaign. One HAM radio operator in PA used his high power transmitter to disable a BTG CP by blasting the Ukrainian national anthem continually for 7 hours... until it ceased to be a CP and was replaced by a smoking crater.



For us Civi's what is a BTG CP?


----------



## DBNSG

Dana381 said:


> For us Civi's what is a BTG CP?


Battalion Tactical Group Command Post.

The Headquarters for about 600-800 Russian Troops. Depending how they are organized.


----------



## MilEME09

Dana381 said:


> For us Civi's what is a BTG CP?


Battalion Tactical Group Command post, a BTG is the standard Russian formation, approximately 800 pers


----------



## MilEME09

Read the whole thread but there are supposed intercepted phone calls, reports of rape, the war crimes climb higher, and raise the possibility that towns may be being wiped out.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503049053210300417


----------



## The Bread Guy

CHN's USA embassy on RUS asking for help:  whatchoo talkin' 'bout, Willis?








						Chinese embassy says has never heard of Russian requests for help
					

The spokesperson for China's embassy in Washington responded to media reports on Sunday that Moscow had asked Beijing for military equipment since launching its invasion of Ukraine by saying, "I've never heard of that."




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Zipperhead99

The Bread Guy said:


> CHN's USA embassy on RUS asking for help:  whatchoo talkin' 'bout, Willis?
> https://www.reuters.com/world/chine...d-russian-requests-ukraine-help-2022-03-13/[/



Outside of providing economic support and military equipment, China probably wants to stay as far away as possible from committing forces to that dumpster fire!


----------



## TheProfessional

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1499381363010682881
> 
> Hope Ukraine manages to kill this guy
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503156666090795011


I will rejoice if this fucking lunatic gets whacked in Ukraine. Fingers crossed 🤞


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503078151655546880


----------



## OldSolduer

Jarnhamar said:


> Where does the Chechen boogyman mystique come from?


The Chechen’s are nominally Muslim and really really really hate Russians. And they are fanatics. 

I understand that some will work for Moscow.


----------



## TacticalTea

Daily reminder that most of the time, pundits have not a clue what the fuck they're talking about, and to take their input with a grain of salt.

I would add:

D-3: They won't actually invade it's just posturing!

D-Day: It's just a minor incursion...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502970172885409800
Edit: Bit of a case in point: Former Russian foreign minister: “It is mind-boggling what Putin is doing in Ukraine

Great input from the former FM, yet the editor thinks it appropriate to interject and contradict here and there throughout the article. NO. Nobody cares about your opinion, Emily.


----------



## Prairie canuck

MilEME09 said:


> Read the whole thread but there are supposed intercepted phone calls, reports of rape, the war crimes climb higher, and raise the possibility that towns may be being wiped out.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503049053210300417


Isn't this the area that Kadyrov is supposedly in?


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503025221053390851


----------



## markppcli

Zipperhead99 said:


> Also, any of the pictures of destroyed/abandoned/captured Russian tanks have the ERA bricks, but I have not seen any APS systems on them so it might seem that such protective systems are not widely distributed to the Russian armoured force


I’m pretty sure I’ve seen images of T90s with Shtora equipped. That’s the dazzler lamps to jam atgms, so active protection.


----------



## Zipperhead99

markppcli said:


> I’m pretty sure I’ve seen images of T90s with Shtora equipped. That’s the dazzler lamps to jam atgms, so active protection.


Interesting, seems it is more for their newest tanks like the T90 rather than older models that are getting brewed up.  My bad, I was thinking more of hard-kill APS than soft-kill like Shtora but thanks for that image; curious on how effective, or ineffective, it has been


----------



## MilEME09

Zipperhead99 said:


> Interesting, seems it is more for their newest tanks like the T90 rather than older models that are getting brewed up.  My bad, I was thinking more of hard-kill APS than soft-kill like Shtora but thanks for that image; curious on how effective, or ineffective, it has been


It's hard to tell though because so many T-72B3Ms, etc... all their new stuff have been captured instead of destroyed. A good number have been destroyed though, mostly looks like a classic Soviet ammo explosion from the turret ring.


----------



## HiTechComms

TacticalTea said:


> Daily reminder that most of the time, pundits have not a clue what the fuck they're talking about, and to take their input with a grain of salt.
> 
> I would add:
> 
> D-3: They won't actually invade it's just posturing!
> 
> D-Day: It's just a minor incursion...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502970172885409800
> Edit: Bit of a case in point: Former Russian foreign minister: “It is mind-boggling what Putin is doing in Ukraine
> 
> Great input from the former FM, yet the editor thinks it appropriate to interject and contradict here and there throughout the article. NO. Nobody cares about your opinion, Emily.


Fundamental misunderstanding of how Russian fight a war vs west fights wars.  This is not an apology for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This is just a perspective that is contrary to mainstream due to cultural and historical familiarity but when people don't agree with mainstream they are labeled as the bad guy right away.

West. I can only use USA as an example. USA uses Shock and Awe destroy and wipe out the opposition. Russia approach is to leave a political option on the table, if you destroy outright then you will create a vacuum of power and Russia doesn't want a failed state on its doorstep. If USA used the same tactic as Russians in Iraq; it would have been to negotiate with Saddam while waging war with him.  

The encirclement maneuvers although might leave some vulnerabilities they will give you a political option, balls to the wall will not give you that option.  Cauldron strategy will enable Russian to exert pressure and give them political concessions that in peace they would never get. Once they establish a perimeter they will bomb the crap out of Ukrainian positions until they negotiate out or be destroyed.

I am suspecting that Russians are ok with the casualties amongst soldiers where is west is not ok with casualties since really ww1. I still believe that Russian goals are: No Nato(Neutrality), Donbas independence, Crimea (access to water). 

This might explain why the Russians really haven't pushed west as they have no support in western Ukraine. Demographically speaking Eastern Ukraine has a lot of Russian ethnic people. Ukraine it self has 1 in 3 people that speaks Russian and 1 in 6 is ethnic Russian (look at the previous elections maps of Ukraine). The military use to get a political result is old as time in eastern Europe, heck it was a tactic used in Anglo/Saxon countries for a long time.  Every one is looking through the lens of a western society and trying to justify the tactics/strategy. I mean wasn't that same lens used in Iraq and Afghanistan and how did that turn out in the end?


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503239822961483776


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest stats from UKR mil int ...

Now, according to RUS state media, even Beijing denies being asked for military help from RUS ...


			https://tass.com/politics/1421659
		









						China Slams Claims About Russia Asking for Military Assistance in Ukraine Op as 'US Disinformation'
					

Earlier, a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy to the United States reportedly rejected media allegations that Moscow had sought Beijing's help with military equipment and other logistics for its operation to de-Nazify Ukraine. Liu...




					sputniknews.com


----------



## Booter

HiTechComms said:


> Fundamental misunderstanding of how Russian fight a war vs west fights wars.  This is not an apology for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This is just a perspective that is contrary to mainstream due to cultural and historical familiarity but when people don't agree with mainstream they are labeled as the bad guy right away.
> 
> West. I can only use USA as an example. USA uses Shock and Awe destroy and wipe out the opposition. Russia approach is to leave a political option on the table, if you destroy outright then you will create a vacuum of power and Russia doesn't want a failed state on its doorstep. If USA used the same tactic as Russians in Iraq; it would have been to negotiate with Saddam while waging war with him.
> 
> The encirclement maneuvers although might leave some vulnerabilities they will give you a political option, balls to the wall will not give you that option.  Cauldron strategy will enable Russian to exert pressure and give them political concessions that in peace they would never get. Once they establish a perimeter they will bomb the crap out of Ukrainian positions until they negotiate out or be destroyed.
> 
> I am suspecting that Russians are ok with the casualties amongst soldiers where is west is not ok with casualties since really ww1. I still believe that Russian goals are: No Nato(Neutrality), Donbas independence, Crimea (access to water).
> 
> This might explain why the Russians really haven't pushed west as they have no support in western Ukraine. Demographically speaking Eastern Ukraine has a lot of Russian ethnic people. Ukraine it self has 1 in 3 people that speaks Russian and 1 in 6 is ethnic Russian (look at the previous elections maps of Ukraine). The military use to get a political result is old as time in eastern Europe, heck it was a tactic used in Anglo/Saxon countries for a long time.  Every one is looking through the lens of a western society and trying to justify the tactics/strategy. I mean wasn't that same lens used in Iraq and Afghanistan and how did that turn out in the end?


We get it. Russia smart and strong.

West dumbbad.


----------



## suffolkowner

HiTechComms said:


> Fundamental misunderstanding of how Russian fight a war vs west fights wars.  This is not an apology for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This is just a perspective that is contrary to mainstream due to cultural and historical familiarity but when people don't agree with mainstream they are labeled as the bad guy right away.
> 
> West. I can only use USA as an example. USA uses Shock and Awe destroy and wipe out the opposition. Russia approach is to leave a political option on the table, if you destroy outright then you will create a vacuum of power and Russia doesn't want a failed state on its doorstep. If USA used the same tactic as Russians in Iraq; it would have been to negotiate with Saddam while waging war with him.
> 
> The encirclement maneuvers although might leave some vulnerabilities they will give you a political option, balls to the wall will not give you that option.  Cauldron strategy will enable Russian to exert pressure and give them political concessions that in peace they would never get. Once they establish a perimeter they will bomb the crap out of Ukrainian positions until they negotiate out or be destroyed.
> 
> I am suspecting that Russians are ok with the casualties amongst soldiers where is west is not ok with casualties since really ww1. I still believe that Russian goals are: No Nato(Neutrality), Donbas independence, Crimea (access to water).
> 
> This might explain why the Russians really haven't pushed west as they have no support in western Ukraine. Demographically speaking Eastern Ukraine has a lot of Russian ethnic people. Ukraine it self has 1 in 3 people that speaks Russian and 1 in 6 is ethnic Russian (look at the previous elections maps of Ukraine). The military use to get a political result is old as time in eastern Europe, heck it was a tactic used in Anglo/Saxon countries for a long time.  Every one is looking through the lens of a western society and trying to justify the tactics/strategy. I mean wasn't that same lens used in Iraq and Afghanistan and how did that turn out in the end?


I dont think you have a single thing right in this post.

As Russia has been unable to prosecute its objectives it has moved more and more towards total warfare it has had to do so because of the limited results of its ground campaign. This is in complete opposition to the propaganda regarding the liberation of their slavic brothers from the yoke of nazisim. 

They have had to encircle and ensiege the cities because they were unable to break through and resistance was much greater than they had anticipated they have them followed up with indiscriminate long range artillery strikes and bombardment

1 in 6 Ukrainians were ethnic Russians before the Donbass invasion over 1.5 million of which were in Crimea alone. They aren't doing much in western Ukraine because they don't have the demonstrated ability. You convienently stopped at the earlier election map instead of showing the progression of democratic Ukraine. Some ethnic Ukrainians speak Russian only some ethnic Russians speak Ukrainian only. With the degree of difficulty that Russia has had in Southern and Eastern Ukraine I can understand their trepidation about moving on to Western Ukraine

What is the lens of western society with respect to tactics and strategy?

That indiscriminate bombing of civilians and hospitals and schools is wrong?
shooting non combatants is wrong?
Moving combatants and munitions in ambulances is wrong?
forcing refugees to identify as foreign combatants is wrong?
faking surrender is wrong?


----------



## KevinB

markppcli said:


> I’m pretty sure I’ve seen images of T90s with Shtora equipped. That’s the dazzler lamps to jam atgms, so active protection.


I'd argue that is more a passive system, or an active confusion system, not an active protection system  -regardless it doesn't work 


Zipperhead99 said:


> Interesting, seems it is more for their newest tanks like the T90 rather than older models that are getting brewed up.  My bad, I was thinking more of hard-kill APS than soft-kill like Shtora but thanks for that image; curious on how effective, or ineffective, it has been


Different countries have different approaches.
   I don't consider a dazzler to be a true APS - whereas the Israeli's and US have been working on mini Anti-Missile Missile systems for APS.
A dazzler can work on a laser designated target by confusing the seeker head into going the wrong way from what it painted - but it doesn't work for other systems of guidance.


----------



## tomydoom

I saw this, this article about sums up my thoughts on where the "west" right now, and our range of unpalatable choices.









						Putin Needs an Off-Ramp
					

The question for world leaders is how to ensure the Russian president is defeated while nevertheless providing him with a route out of the crisis.




					www.theatlantic.com


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> I'd argue that is more a passive system, or an active confusion system, not an active protection system  -regardless it doesn't work
> 
> Different countries have different approaches.
> I don't consider a dazzler to be a true APS - whereas the Israeli's and US have been working on mini Anti-Missile Missile systems for APS.
> A dazzler can work on a laser designated target by confusing the seeker head into going the wrong way from what it painted - but it doesn't work for other systems of guidance.


Agree, dazzler at best, and nowhere near a DIRCM that can actively identify the inbound missile’s seeker and apply type-specific seduce/divert/destroy counter-measures to the seeker.  Armour APS seems to be back where 1/2nd-Gen helo IR jammers we’re way back, the old ALQ-144 ‘disco-ball’ wasn’t much more effective than flares.  The challenge is that many AT systems have fairly resilient command guidance modes (full/semi/autonomous) and that’s a hard nut for an APS to crack.


----------



## KevinB

tomydoom said:


> I saw this, this article about sums up my thoughts on where the "west" right now, and our range of unpalatable choices.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Putin Needs an Off-Ramp
> 
> 
> The question for world leaders is how to ensure the Russian president is defeated while nevertheless providing him with a route out of the crisis.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theatlantic.com


The one part of the article is, it seems to miss the point that the Ukraine may be able to push Russia out of the Crimea, and D&L occupied areas too, and honestly why should the Ukrainians listen to the West if told to stop...  

I don't see Putin getting out of this one, the best I can see is if the West (NATO) is willing to guarantee Russian 1989/91 territorial borders and including them in a Marshall plan 2.0 rebuilding of Eastern Europe, but Putin ends up in a noose, or a bullet to the back of the head regardless.


----------



## The Bread Guy

To compare & contrast, here's RUS state media's map o' the day ....


----------



## Booter

KevinB said:


> The one part of the article is, it seems to miss the point that the Ukraine may be able to push Russia out of the Crimea, and D&L occupied areas too, and honestly why should the Ukrainians listen to the West if told to stop...
> 
> I don't see Putin getting out of this one, the best I can see is if the West (NATO) is willing to guarantee Russian 1989/91 territorial borders and including them in a Marshall plan 2.0 rebuilding of Eastern Europe, but Putin ends up in a noose, or a bullet to the back of the head regardless.


Ideally his legacy would be to be dragged naked through the streets with dogs dealing with his disposal. The photos of which would serve as a warning to those that would make millions of victims over their hubris and “legacy”

A news release letting him know that will be his end now- is optional


----------



## The Bread Guy

Crimean official claims, via RUS state media, they now have a Donbass-Crimea corridor - English translation attached.


----------



## tomydoom

Booter said:


> Ideally his legacy would be to be dragged naked through the streets with dogs dealing with his disposal. The photos of which would serve as a warning to those that would make millions of victims over their hubris and “legacy”
> 
> A news release letting him know that will be his end now- is optional


I don't think you will find too many people on here, that would argue this not being the ideal outcome.  Though as the column pointed out, we may like his replacement even less.  
Realism would suggest, that we need to offer him an exit strategy, that does not involve cindering the planet.  If it comes to that, everyone has lost. The Ukrainians, the Russians, Canadians, everyone, except maybe New Zeeland.


----------



## KevinB

tomydoom said:


> I don't think you will find too many people on here, that would argue this not being the ideal outcome.  Though as the column pointed out, we may like his replacement even less.
> Realism would suggest, that we need to offer him an exit strategy, that does not involve cindering the planet.  If it comes to that, everyone has lost. The Ukrainians, the Russians, Canadians, everyone, except maybe New Zeeland.


Which is why it's important for the Western to not sit back and be isolationist about rebuilding Eastern Europe after.
   Russia needs to see a win in this -- the best case would be a Western type democracy - with methods to remove corruption, I think that would be a global win (well not China) - but a Marshall Plan 2.0 with a complete rebuilding of Russia - without the Oligarchs - (but you need to give them an out, so they get the majority of their assets back and freedom - but frozen out of the future in Russia).


----------



## tomydoom

KevinB said:


> Which is why it's important for the Western to not sit back and be isolationist about rebuilding Eastern Europe after.
> Russia needs to see a win in this -- the best case would be a Western type democracy - with methods to remove corruption, I think that would be a global win (well not China) - but a Marshall Plan 2.0 with a complete rebuilding of Russia - without the Oligarchs - (but you need to give them an out, so they get the majority of their assets back and freedom - but frozen out of the future in Russia).


You're scenario there assumes regime change in Russia.  That may be a bit optimistic.  But assuming, we can navigate pushing out Putin and installing a less toxic regime in Moscow, I wholeheartedly agree with you there. Interesting times for sure.


----------



## Booter

tomydoom said:


> I don't think you will find too many people on here, that would argue this not being the ideal outcome.  Though as the column pointed out, we may like his replacement even less.
> Realism would suggest, that we need to offer him an exit strategy, that does not involve cindering the planet.  If it comes to that, everyone has lost. The Ukrainians, the Russians, Canadians, everyone, except maybe New Zeeland.


I’m not often accused of strategic level thinking. I can see the wisdom in your reply.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Which is why it's important for the Western to not sit back and be isolationist about rebuilding Eastern Europe after.
> Russia needs to see a win in this -- the best case would be a Western type democracy - with methods to remove corruption, I think that would be a global win (well not China) - but a Marshall Plan 2.0 with a complete rebuilding of Russia - without the Oligarchs - (but you need to give them an out, so they get the majority of their assets back and freedom - but frozen out of the future in Russia).


 I agree.
There needs to be Marshall Plan 2.0 for the Ukraine.
I've mentioned on here previously the vast good that I saw first hand being done in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland under the PHARE programmes run by the EU in the mid 90's when I was working in the CR.  The Ukraine will need something just as strong, broad reaching and long lasting. In terms of time length, 10+yrs at a start. It will be a total commitment, a total reworking of the Ukrainian economy, to integrate it into the EU standards.  Ukrainian Olie's will be pushed out to pasture as the time goes on - as each new piece of legislation is enacted, another nail in the coffin of the Olie's is hammered in, it will be a marathon, not a sprint.  This approach has worked in Romania, Bulgaria, Poland, the CR, etc.

As for Russia, its the devil you know vs the devil you don't. To run a country as vast, ethnically diverse. sparsely populated and economically stunted, you need a strong leader - a strong central government.  Spreading the power among the Governors will lead to a Civil war eventually due to competing demands/approaches.  There is no easy answer here, no one solution fits all. The process of change will be long, develop in fits and starts and painful. You have to start to develop the mindset of 'individual ownership/responsibility' right down to the average citizen.  This has never existed in Russia - ever. You can't develop this overnight, it will take years, decades to achieve. I'm convinced its one of the main reasons why the RA is failing so badly in Ukraine today.  Whatever the future is for Russia, we, the West, have to engage them in a positive manner, as 'equal partners' for a number of decades.


----------



## dapaterson

A technical that would not be out of place in Victoria.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503365400939147273


----------



## Brad Sallows

> they now have a Donbass-Crimea corridor



I wish them luck.  The Germans had corridors too, but they were never entirely secure.


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> Crimean official claims, via RUS state media, they now have a Donbass-Crimea corridor - English translation attached.


Seems to be a rather large unsecured city in the middle there. 

Russian casualties have been holding steady at 12k, I think the Russians are getting smarter about collecting their dead. They have also stalled and haven't committed any major offensive ops while waiting to reinforce.

Right now if probably a good time to counter attack if Ukraine can exploit it.


----------



## Czech_pivo

How about a little Seinfeld humour for us all.

Ukraine is not weak...


----------



## suffolkowner

A lot of suffering and destruction ongoing and it doesn't seem like either the Ukrainians or the Russians have exhausted themselves yet. The Russians appear to have consolidated some of their positions at least partly. The questions are how much does Russia want and how willing are they to continue? How long can Ukraine keep going and what are they willing to give up? 

A deal really should have been made before this on the Donbas and Crimea but perhaps this was always going to happen according to Vlads plan

for reference this is what the Russians/Soviets lost in Afghanistan according to wikipedia


14,453 killed (total) or
9,500 killed in combat
4,000 died from wounds
1,000 died from disease and accidents

53,753 wounded
264 missing
451 aircraft (including 333 helicopters)
147 tanks
1,314 AFVs
433 artillery guns and mortars
11,369 cargo and fuel tanker trucks


----------



## The Bread Guy

Poland:  About those jets?  We're not quite done here ... (Polish media quoting senior POL politician, Google English)
🍿


----------



## KevinB

__





						The Morning: An unlikely hero
					





					messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com
				







By David Leonhardt

Good morning. We look at how Volodymyr Zelensky became an unlikely global hero.​



​



Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president.Lynsey Addario for The New York Times​


​A comedian who listens​

National heroes sometimes have humble political origins.​

Abraham Lincoln was arguably the country’s least-qualified president — a former one-term member of Congress — at the time that he took office. Winston Churchill looked like a washed-up politician when Germany invaded Poland in 1939. And Volodymyr Zelensky did not seem like an international symbol of courage when Russia began threatening to invade Ukraine in recent months.​

In today’s newsletter, I want to give you a brief profile of Zelensky, one that goes beyond the one or two sentences many people have heard about him in recent weeks. I’ll also link to some of the best profiles of him and podcasts about him, for anybody who wants more.​

Below, you’ll also find the latest news from the war.​

​Benny Hill humor​

By now, the basics of Zelensky’s background are well known: Before becoming Ukraine’s president, he had been a comedic actor whose best-known role was as a teacher who rose to Ukraine’s presidency thanks to a viral video.​

That show, “Servant of the People,” was a cross between “The West Wing” and Monty Python. Zelensky himself has credited Benny Hill, the crude British comedian, as an influence. (You can watch a short excerpt from the show, with English voice overs.)​

“As a film actor and sitcom star, Zelensky thrived in the role of the Everyman, often playing the average guy who wins over the beautiful woman seemingly beyond his reach,” Franklin Foer has written in The Atlantic.​

Zelensky grew up in a fading and polluted industrial city, the son of an engineer and computer-science professor. He is Jewish, in a country with a brutal history of antisemitism, and his first language was Russian, as is the case for many Ukrainians.​

He ran for president in 2019, with a charmingly populist campaign that evoked his character on “Servant of the People.” It helped that the billionaire owner of the network that broadcast the show promoted Zelensky’s candidacy, including with a documentary that aired on the eve of the election, comparing him to Ronald Reagan.​

Elsewhere in Europe, many officials initially viewed Zelensky as unserious, as The New Yorker’s Joshua Yaffa has reported. “The impression was terrible,” one European diplomat said, referring to one early meeting.​

The impression today is very different, of course. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Zelensky has become a Churchillian figure, the personal embodiment of his country’s refusal to yield to a murderous authoritarian.​

​


Zelensky, second from left, near the Belarusian border last month.Lynsey Addario for The New York Times​


​Seeing through Putin​

That image does have a lot in common with the optimistic and patriotic vision of Ukraine that Zelensky has presented since he began running for office.​

His two central campaign promises were to crack down on corruption and to end the military conflict with Russia in the country’s eastern provinces. After taking office, he stripped members of Parliament of their legal immunity. He shrunk his own motorcade to two cars, without sirens. He told government officials to remove presidential portraits from their offices and replace them with pictures of their children, to remind them of the stakes of their work.​

He also earnestly took to the job of president, acknowledging how little he knew. “He’s a very intent listener,” John Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, told Foer.​

One early question that many Ukrainians had was what approach Zelensky would take to Russia. Some even worried that he might be too accommodating to Vladimir Putin, Anton Troianovski, The Times’s Moscow bureau chief, has noted. Zelensky not only grew up speaking Russian, but had become a star in Russia, thanks to his television shows.​

“Zelensky came in as a candidate who promised to make a deal with Russia to end the war,” Anton said. Over time, though, Zelensky came to believe that Putin was not negotiating in good faith and wanted to dominate Ukraine. That belief pushed Zelensky closer to the West, angering Putin.​

“In retrospect, now that we see what Putin really wants, total control over Ukraine, it is hard to see what Zelensky could’ve done,” Anton said.​

​Personal bravery​

Since Russia invaded, Zelensky has remained in Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, rallying the country through videotaped speeches. (Yesterday, Zelensky’s government posted photos of him visiting wounded soldiers at a hospital and awarding them medals.) He has done so even though Russian troops and spies are likely trying to kill him.​

Anne Applebaum, a journalist and Ukraine expert, recently said on NPR that she thought Zelensky might never flee the country. “He’s an actor, and he understands that he has a role to play, and he will play the role,” Applebaum said. He knows that he represents his country, she added, and even if he wishes he had never run for president, he understands that he now symbolizes something larger than himself.​

“Once you enter the role, you play it to the end,” she said. “You have a larger responsibility to the citizens and to your country’s image in the world.”​

Related: Maureen Dowd writes that Zelensky has become “the world’s greatest actor” in a real-life struggle between good and evil.​

​State of the War​


Russian forces hit Kyiv with heavy artillery strikes this morning after days of fighting in the suburbs. One projectile struck an apartment building.
Russia continued its assault on civilians, firing on a train evacuating people fleeing the Donetsk region. Russian forces also continued to attack residential buildings in Mariupol, where a humanitarian crisis is deepening.
“The entire sky was in flames”: A Russian attack 11 miles from the border with Poland hit a base where foreigners who had come to help Ukrainewere believed to be training.
Russia asked China for military equipment and for financial assistance to protect its economy, U.S. officials say. A Chinese spokesman dismissed the claim.
Russian forces fatally shot Brent Renaud, an American journalist who was reporting outside Kyiv, Ukrainian officials said.
Russian and Ukrainian officials are holding virtual peace talks today.



Key Take Away: 

“Zelensky came in as a candidate who promised to make a deal with Russia to end the war,” Anton said. Over time, though, Zelensky came to believe that Putin was not negotiating in good faith and wanted to dominate Ukraine. That belief pushed Zelensky closer to the West, angering Putin.

*“In retrospect, now that we see what Putin really wants, total control over Ukraine, it is hard to see what Zelensky could’ve done,” Anton said.*


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503422430911647746

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503422437702131715

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503422439417692165
If I was Russia I wouldn't bomb that hospital...


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503422430911647746
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503422437702131715
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503422439417692165
> If I was Russia I wouldn't bomb that hospital...


How long before Russia bombs that too?


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> How long before Russia bombs that too?


About 1 hour before Israel bombs Russia...



The Israelis aren't really known for taking minor reactions.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Am I the only one getting a bit of a "Red Dawn" vibe with the flags on the back of the trucks here? (RUS MoD info-machine via YT)


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> About 1 hour before Israel bombs Russia...
> 
> 
> 
> The Israelis aren't really known for taking minor reactions.


Kinda the final nail in the coffin of the Russian narrative if Israel and Ukraine are on the sane side.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> About 1 hour before Israel bombs Russia...
> 
> 
> 
> The Israelis aren't really known for taking minor reactions.


Would love to see some of their F-35's sink a Russian ship or five.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Would love to see some of their F-35's sink a Russian ship or five.


As they are not a NATO member they could easily conduct an operation like that without a significant expansion of the war.  

Russia can’t really threaten to nuke Israel as well, because they’d say ‘hold my beer’…


----------



## Good2Golf

I wonder if any ‘one-way to the front’ RF General would let one rip at the Israeli hospital  to ‘give it back to The Man?’


----------



## daftandbarmy

Just another day at the Mech Infantry Office


Incredible footage filmed from the perspective of a Ukrainian BTR-4 infantry fighting vehicle's remote weapon system screen shows the crew engaging Russian armor and dismounted troops in the vicinity of Mariupol.

According to OSINT channel Ukraine Weapons Tracker; the Ukrainian BTR-4 uses its 30mm cannon to damage a T-72B3M main battle tank and destroy a BRM-1K light armored infantry fighting vehicle. Additionally, the Ukrainian BTR-4 gunner can be seen shooting under the BRM in an attempt to kill the dismounted Russian troops.

Ukrainian BTR-4 Unleashes 30mm On Russian Armor And Infantry


----------



## KevinB

Good2Golf said:


> I wonder if any ‘one-way to the front’ RF General would let one rip at the Israeli hospital  to ‘give it back to The Man?’


Interesting thought.   

Unlike Desert Shield/Storm/Strike there is no incentive to keep Israel out, as there isn’t an Arab force coalition to worry about. 

I keep wondering when the ‘Ukrainian’ Merkava will arrive


----------



## Remius

Thread by @DanLamothe on Thread Reader App
					

@DanLamothe: A background briefing at the Pentagon about the Russian war on Ukraine just finished. It’s Day 19 of the war. Basic takeaways: I’ll start with the strikes Sunday on the Ukrainian military training cente...…




					threadreaderapp.com
				




Some interesting details if true.


----------



## MilEME09

Meanwhile in the occupied territories 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503421808736878593


----------



## dapaterson

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503365279061053443


----------



## Colin Parkinson

KevinB said:


> About 1 hour before Israel bombs Russia...
> 
> 
> 
> The Israelis aren't really known for taking minor reactions.


I would not want to be a Russian operating aircraft or AD systems in Syria if Russia bombs the hospital. This is a smart move by Israel, they don't need to piss off the Russians because of their own local conflicts, but need to be seen doing something. I suspect a message about their response to any 'accident" has been sent via their contacts with the Russian Forces in Syria.


----------



## MilEME09

This looks ridiculously indiscriminate.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503440661751738374
Fox also reporting one of its own has been wounded


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503433441072889861


----------



## KevinB

Russia the country that made cluster bomblets look like Childrens toys, hardly anything is beyond the pale to them…


----------



## suffolkowner

Update on Russian equipment losses: Oryx numbers
					

TLDR: analysis of Oryx figures suggest Ukrainian figures are accurate, at least since the start of March. This is bad news for Russia. I hazard a prediction that if this rate of equipment loss up for another 60 days the Russians will probably need to get out, and if this keeps up for 90 days the...




					philosophybear.substack.com
				




This guy has taken oryx's confirmed Russian losses and graphed it by day


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503439574047014915
hmm, if I was Israel, I might find a link here...


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Russian SU-25 that was hit by a Manpad and was able to return to base 








						Милитарист
					

Штурмовик Су-25СМ3 ВКС России смог вернуться на аэродром после попадания ракеты ПЗРК




					t.me


----------



## MilEME09

According to some Twitter feeds i follow, Kyiv has approximately 2 weeks worth of supplies for the population and troops. With supply lines not cut, I would wager its impossible now for Russia to take Kyiv.


----------



## McG

KevinB said:


> Russia the country that made cluster bomblets look like Childrens toys, hardly anything is beyond the pale to them…


They did the same with helicopter dispersed AP mines.


----------



## OldSolduer

daftandbarmy said:


> Just another day at the Mech Infantry Office
> 
> 
> Incredible footage filmed from the perspective of a Ukrainian BTR-4 infantry fighting vehicle's remote weapon system screen shows the crew engaging Russian armor and dismounted troops in the vicinity of Mariupol.
> 
> According to OSINT channel Ukraine Weapons Tracker; the Ukrainian BTR-4 uses its 30mm cannon to damage a T-72B3M main battle tank and destroy a BRM-1K light armored infantry fighting vehicle. Additionally, the Ukrainian BTR-4 gunner can be seen shooting under the BRM in an attempt to kill the dismounted Russian troops.
> 
> Ukrainian BTR-4 Unleashes 30mm On Russian Armor And Infantry


He lit him up....lit him up REAL good.


----------



## OldSolduer

KevinB said:


> Russia the country that made cluster bomblets look like Childrens toys, hardly anything is beyond the pale to them…


Ain't that the truth.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Looks to be 30mm into a BMD

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503352707251322885


----------



## MilEME09

Well someone's going to jail...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503456112552591365


----------



## The Bread Guy

Colin Parkinson said:


> Russian SU-25 that was hit by a Manpad and was able to return to base
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Милитарист
> 
> 
> Штурмовик Су-25СМ3 ВКС России смог вернуться на аэродром после попадания ракеты ПЗРК
> 
> 
> 
> 
> t.me


YT link in case this link doesn't work for you (YT version includes an interview with the alleged pilot)




The RUS MoD info-machine's writeup (in Google English)


> While performing a combat mission in the zone of a special military operation, the Su-25 attack aircraft, which is second in the pair, was hit by a missile from a man-portable air defense system fired from the ground by a serviceman of the armed forces of Ukraine.
> 
> The pilot of the damaged aircraft, assessing the situation, decided to turn off the damaged engine and not leave the aircraft.
> 
> The pilot of the leading (first) plane, Lieutenant Colonel Denis Litvinov, rebuilt, and realizing that the comrade's plane could not withstand a second missile hit, he covered it with his own plane.
> 
> The pilot of the second aircraft visually detected the launch of the second rocket and, firing off heat traps, managed to divert the rocket to the side.
> 
> During the landing approach, the pilot of the damaged Su-25 reported on the failure of the control and monitoring systems of the aircraft, landing on the commands of the pilot covering him.
> 
> The landing was made without incident. Thanks to the cold-blooded and skillful actions of the pilot Denis Litvinov, he managed to save the life of his friend and the combat aircraft.
> 
> Both pilots are presented for state awards.


----------



## MilEME09

Update: Ben Hall of Fox News is in the ICU in Kyiv right now


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503458784617897988


----------



## suffolkowner

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503439574047014915
> hmm, if I was Israel, I might find a link here...


the Russians cant possibly be that stupid, can they? Maybe the Iranians?

I hope it was the Russians some Harpy's and Harop's would be nice to see in action again


----------



## Kirkhill

Timothy Garton Ash of the Guardian

Something Must Be Done!









						In this moment of crisis, opening the door to Ukraine is one thing the EU can do | Timothy Garton Ash
					

Zelenskiy and his people are fighting for their lives to defend European values. They have earned the prospect of EU membership once this brutal war is over, says Guardian columnist Timothy Garton Ash




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Add Israel to India









						Israel's position on Ukraine spells disaster for the West
					

Russia filled a gap in the Middle East left by American isolationism




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				




And Ukraine debating whether there is any value in joining NATO or the EU after seeing the speed with which those two bodies act.

Finland, Sweden, Switzerland, Israel....
Turkey?
Ukraine?
Poland?
Hungary?

Their own "league" of independent nations? Self-Reliant?

Better to retain freedom of action than be told to roll over for the greater good.


----------



## RangerRay

Jen Gerson: On Big Macs and empires
					

Old truisms about the liberal world order, and the nature of war itself are challenged as McDonald's stops operations in Moscow.




					theline.substack.com


----------



## MilEME09

IDs included to reinforce the point, potential huge victory near Kyiv


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503464033831243785


----------



## Kirkhill

Fox in the Henhouse  









						Is this the end of the tank?
					

Advances in drone and missile technology highlight how tanks are becoming too expensive and cumbersome to be worthwhile




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## suffolkowner

The Intellectual Catastrophe of Vladimir Putin
					

The meaning of Russia’s war in Ukraine is its own national weakness.




					foreignpolicy.com
				




An attempt at looking what drives Putin and the Russian invasion


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> Well someone's going to jail...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503456112552591365


Theres no one good emoji for this. That took so much courage to do it is hard to describe. I wanted to like this post or love it but truely that is not enough as I think we all know what one risks to have embarassed Putin on national TV like that. It also goes to show that some Russians know what is actually going on


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukrainian soldiers take part in an exercise for the use of NLAW anti-tank missiles at the Yavoriv military training ground in late January CREDIT: Pavlo Palamarchuk/AP

Neat Ghillie Suits for the Hoi Polloi.









						Watch: Moment Russian cruise missiles strike military base, killing 35
					

'I thought we were going to die', British volunteers said as they described the sound of the missles as 'an airplane with a turbo jet'




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## Czech_pivo

Someone is on the way to the Kola peninsula as we speak. Hope she brought her gloves.


MilEME09 said:


> Well someone's going to jail...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503456112552591365


----------



## Quirky

MilEME09 said:


> Kinda the final nail in the coffin of the Russian narrative if Israel and Ukraine are on the sane side.



You wouldn't want Russia to de-nazify Israel too....


----------



## suffolkowner

Quirky said:


> You wouldn't want Russia to de-nazify Israel too....


Could you imagine the disaster of Russia having to engage in another campaign of any sort right now. Earlier in this thread while arguing with Altair. I suggested that in an earlier mindset and a non nuclear world that Russia's invasion of Ukraine would signal the Poles and Finns to seize their chance. He laughed it off but I think we can see now that Russia would be unable to deal with that threat. And perhaps he/they understand that and that is what drives some of the paranoia

edit by he/they I meant Putin/Russia not Altair


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503474466726334469
This could be big


----------



## KevinB

Quirky said:


> You wouldn't want Russia to de-nazify Israel too....


One might be forgiving thinking that Russia (or at least Putin) these days is still a tad anti-semitic...

Maybe there needs to be a special military operation conducted in Russia to De-Nazify them.


----------



## MilEME09

Anyone hear of Ukraines stockpile of Neptune Antiship cruise missiles? Brand new as of last year, could give the Russian navy a black eye if they get too close to Odessa.









						R-360 Neptune - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> Anyone hear of Ukraines stockpile of Neptune Antiship cruise missiles? Brand new as of last year, could give the Russian navy a black eye if they get too close to Odessa.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> R-360 Neptune - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org


I would love to see a missile stike on Russia's ships in the Black Sea. The one was hit by a Grad strike and sunk? Not just to disable Russia's threat there but I want to see how a ship performs against a missile strike in the real world. You would think others would as well. Maybe if Russia is starting to piss off Israel we can get an israeli or turkish loitering munition strike on one of Russia's ships too


----------



## Gunnar

suffolkowner said:


> Could you imagine the disaster of Russia having to engage in another campaign of any sort right now. Earlier in this thread while arguing with Altair. I suggested that in an earlier mindset and a non nuclear world that Russia's invasion of Ukraine would signal the Poles and Finns to seize their chance. He laughed it off but I think we can see now that Russia would be unable to deal with that threat. And perhaps he/they understand that and that is what drives some of the paranoia
> 
> edit by he/they I meant Putin/Russia not Altair


Japan could take their islands back too...


----------



## Prairie canuck

Gunnar said:


> Japan could take their islands back too...


I am surprised that Opposition in Syria haven't taken advantage of the situation. Same for Eritrean opposition.


----------



## McG

MilEME09 said:


> Anyone hear of Ukraines stockpile of Neptune Antiship cruise missiles? Brand new as of last year, could give the Russian navy a black eye if they get too close to Odessa.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> R-360 Neptune - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org


What I read suggests it may not have reached full production, so there may not be many of there are any. But if it did not become available, I would hope Allied channels provided something to send invading assault ships to the bottom of the sea. Even if older Soviet missiles.


----------



## Remius

Putin has lost his war in Ukraine and created Toxic Russia. - Grey Hare Media
					

Putins invasion of Ukrraine is destined for failure and a Toxic Russia has been created. Philip INGRAM MBE explains why he thinks this.




					greyharemedia.com
				




Putin Loses even if he “wins”.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Well, stand up the North Atlantic convoy protection force again.

Luckily the RCN culture has survived over 70 years of 'neglect' due to focusing on less important tasks so it shouldn't take us long to get back in the saddle 


Putin's threat to UK: 'I could sink your ships without a world war'​VLADIMIR PUTIN warned the UK that Russia could sink its ships without sparking a global conflict in a furious rant last year.​
Putin's forces continue to bombard major cities in Ukraine as the invasion nears three weeks.

The war has heightened tensions between Russia and the UK, but Moscow and London have been at loggerheads for years.

This was seen in June 2021 when Putin warned the UK that his forces could sink British ships.

Putin said Russia could have sunk a British warship that it accused of illegally entering its territorial waters without starting World War 3 and accused Washington of a role in the "provocation".

At the time, Moscow had already expressed anger in the direction of the UK after British ships operated near Crimea.

Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, but Britain and most of the world still recognise the Black Sea peninsula as part of Ukraine, not Russia.

Putin, speaking during his annual question and answer session with voters, signalled his anger over the operations.

When asked if the world had stood on the precipice of World War 3 during the standoff, Putin said: "Of course not.

"Even if we had sunk the ship, it is hard to imagine that the world would have been on the verge of World War 3 because those doing it know that they could not emerge as victors from such a war."

Putin accused the US and UK of planning the episode together, saying a US spy plane had taken off from Greece earlier on the same day to watch how Russia would respond to the British warship.










						Putin's threat to UK: 'I could sink your ships without a world war'
					

VLADIMIR PUTIN warned the UK that Russia could sink its ships without sparking a global conflict in a furious rant last year.




					www.express.co.uk


----------



## MilEME09

Big take aways here are Ukraine continues to hurt russias rear lines. No signs of any major Ukrainian counter offensive to push Russia back. I for one hope this changes as Mariupol needs relief as soon as possible. Another possible lime of counter attack would be in the SW to push Russia back to Kherson.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503489382623420423


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> Big take aways here are Ukraine continues to hurt russias rear lines. No signs of any major Ukrainian counter offensive to push Russia back. I for one hope this changes as Mariupol needs relief as soon as possible. Another possible lime of counter attack would be in the SW to push Russia back to Kherson.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503489382623420423


God I hate seeing those maps I know the red doesn't represent complete Russian control but it goes to show that for all the hits the Russians are taking they are making some gains


----------



## Dana381

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503422430911647746
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503422437702131715
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503422439417692165
> If I was Russia I wouldn't bomb that hospital...



I guess that s what Russia gets for hiring Muslim terrorists.


----------



## MilEME09

Oh boy....

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503502734594658308


----------



## rmc_wannabe

MilEME09 said:


> Oh boy....
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503502734594658308


Shoot it down on the other side of the line next time....


----------



## Czech_pivo

rmc_wannabe said:


> Shoot it down on the other side of the line next time....


Almost like they are doing a recon of potential truck convoys approaching the Ukraine border and then nail them as they cross the border. This could be a serious concern.


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> Almost like they are doing a recon of potential truck convoys approaching the Ukraine border and then nail them as they cross the border. This could be a serious concern.


It's been pointed out that Russia lacks the ability to hit moving convoys at this point. Meaning they are likely trying to find where the warehouse is.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503489559509798912


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503518068286398473


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503518068286398473


So crazy if true but I will hope


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> One might be forgiving thinking that Russia (or at least Putin) these days is still a tad anti-semitic...
> 
> Maybe there needs to be a special military operation conducted in Russia to De-Nazify them.



Russia invented the Pogrom... a Russian word to describe what they did before the Holocaust...


----------



## OldSolduer

Tomorrow is The Ides of March.

Does Putin have a slave reminding him he’s mortal?


----------



## FJAG

OldSolduer said:


> Tomorrow is The Ides of March.
> 
> Does Putin have a slave reminding him he’s mortal?


Does Russia have 60 Boni senators?

Asking for a friend.


----------



## TacticalTea

Estonian Parliament demands No Fly Zone in 90-to-11 supermajority vote


----------



## MilEME09

So this may explain Ukraines low intercept rate fir SRBMs.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503541496250867712


----------



## OldSolduer

FJAG said:


> Does Russia have 60 Boni senators?
> 
> Asking for a friend.



Probably not. But maybe a few pissed off oligarchs….


----------



## TacticalTea

Should Russian athletes be barred from competition? NYT asks.

"Russian athletes are individuals, like us all, full of dreams and fear and courage," -NYT columnist Kurt Streeter.

My answer: 

So were 5 000 Ukrainians that would be alive today were it not for the crimes of their rogue country.

As opposed to those Ukrainians, these athletes still have choices they can make: Compete at home, or in China. Immigrate to a more respectable country and burn their Russian passport. Revolt and force their State to end the war. Find a new calling, preferably one that atones for their country's sins, such as volunteering with the Red Cross, the UN or MSF.

No shortage of options.


----------



## Kilted

OldSolduer said:


> Tomorrow is The Ides of March.
> 
> Does Putin have a slave reminding him he’s mortal?


I wonder how many senior politicians in the west are wondering if it's time to call his bluff?


----------



## Zipperhead99

An interesting take regarding China's "support" of Russia









						Was China Betting on Russian Defeat All Along? | Geopolitical Monitor
					

The best outcome of the Ukraine invasion for Beijing is a weakened, isolated, and dependent Russia. Perhaps this was the plan all along.



					www.geopoliticalmonitor.com


----------



## MilEME09

Kilted said:


> I wonder how many senior politicians in the west are wondering if it's time to call his bluff?


Find out the the emergency NATO leaders summer I guess


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Some more speculation on the Russians reduced EW activities

Ukrainian Officer Details Russian Electronic Warfare Tactics Including Radio "Virus"


----------



## TacticalTea

Allegedly, another Russian Senior Officer's life cycle management contract abruptly terminated:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503437200398168076
Edit: Also, the stagnating ''60 destroyed fuel trucks'' number we keep seeing flown around might actually refer to rail-carried fuel tanks according to some sources, with actual fuel trucks falling in within the 1200 or so regular supply / multi purpose vehicles.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503613213006565377


----------



## The Bread Guy

Word of a Canadian volunteer wounded ....








						'I got hit': Canadian volunteer fighter injured in Russian missile strike at Ukraine base
					

'A lot of people were killed. Over 35 as of now. I’m coming home'




					nationalpost.com
				




... and latest stats from UKR mil int


----------



## ueo

KevinB said:


> Russia the country that made cluster bomblets look like Childrens toys, hardly anything is beyond the pale to them…


Um what, thought it was  origionally the US in Viet Nam.


----------



## KevinB

ueo said:


> Um what, thought it was  origionally the US in Viet Nam.


? uhm what


----------



## ueo

KevinB said:


> ? uhm what


Sorry, no attribution beyond a somewhat hazy memory of early 70's.


----------



## Halifax Tar

daftandbarmy said:


> Well, stand up the North Atlantic convoy protection force again.
> 
> Luckily the RCN culture has survived over 70 years of 'neglect' due to focusing on less important tasks so it shouldn't take us long to get back in the saddle
> 
> 
> Putin's threat to UK: 'I could sink your ships without a world war'​VLADIMIR PUTIN warned the UK that Russia could sink its ships without sparking a global conflict in a furious rant last year.​
> Putin's forces continue to bombard major cities in Ukraine as the invasion nears three weeks.
> 
> The war has heightened tensions between Russia and the UK, but Moscow and London have been at loggerheads for years.
> 
> This was seen in June 2021 when Putin warned the UK that his forces could sink British ships.
> 
> Putin said Russia could have sunk a British warship that it accused of illegally entering its territorial waters without starting World War 3 and accused Washington of a role in the "provocation".
> 
> At the time, Moscow had already expressed anger in the direction of the UK after British ships operated near Crimea.
> 
> Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, but Britain and most of the world still recognise the Black Sea peninsula as part of Ukraine, not Russia.
> 
> Putin, speaking during his annual question and answer session with voters, signalled his anger over the operations.
> 
> When asked if the world had stood on the precipice of World War 3 during the standoff, Putin said: "Of course not.
> 
> "Even if we had sunk the ship, it is hard to imagine that the world would have been on the verge of World War 3 because those doing it know that they could not emerge as victors from such a war."
> 
> Putin accused the US and UK of planning the episode together, saying a US spy plane had taken off from Greece earlier on the same day to watch how Russia would respond to the British warship.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Putin's threat to UK: 'I could sink your ships without a world war'
> 
> 
> VLADIMIR PUTIN warned the UK that Russia could sink its ships without sparking a global conflict in a furious rant last year.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.express.co.uk



North Atlantic Squadron






Shes a dirty ditty, no offence meant.  This actually made this long time singer of rugby songs blush lol


----------



## OceanBonfire

Retired Maj-Gen. Fraser on situation in Ukraine
					

Retired Maj-Gen. Dave Fraser explains the tactical situation facing Ukraine as the Russian invasion stretches into its third week.




					www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## GK .Dundas

tomydoom said:


> I initially read it as Russia wants to surrender.   It's likely more realistic than some of the things they are demanding.





Kilted said:


> It's largely believed that that attempt was completely ineffective.





Halifax Tar said:


> North Atlantic Squadron
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Shes a dirty ditty, no offence meant.  This actually made this long time singer of rugby songs blush lol


This what they used to sing before the self appointed political commissars and cheap video cameras.  And I while I don't.exactly miss those days and the.same time I occasionally wonder if we've lost something as well as gained. 
Nostalgia tends to come with rose coloured lenses.


----------



## MilEME09

More graphic photos are on Twitter, body is definitely there, if true this is a man no tears should be shed for.



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503693079592804360
In other news Odessa may be next


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503744148997910529


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> More graphic photos are on Twitter, body is definitely there, if true this is a man no tears should be shed for.
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503693079592804360
> In other news Odessa may be next
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503744148997910529


Hopefully the Ukrainians can saturate the landing zone and approaches will a constant stream of grad missiles and turn this landing into Gallipoli.


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> Hopefully the Ukrainians can saturate the landing zone and approaches will a constant stream of grad missiles and turn this landing into Gallipoli.


If they land, it will be opposed, and 5 landing ships likely doesn't have enough troops to succeed. This could make Dieppe look like a success.


----------



## Remius

Absent UK soldiers may have travelled to Ukraine, British Army says
					

The Army says it's "actively and strongly encouraging" the soldiers to return to the UK.



					www.bbc.com
				




Some Brit soldiers may be going AWOL to go fight in Ukraine.  Not smart.


----------



## MilEME09

Remius said:


> Absent UK soldiers may have travelled to Ukraine, British Army says
> 
> 
> The Army says it's "actively and strongly encouraging" the soldiers to return to the UK.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Some Brit soldiers may be going AWOL to go fight in Ukraine.  Not smart.


Wouldn't be surprised, CAF likely has a few too, I am sure all of you who are still in got the email about if you wanted to go fight you need to release.


----------



## Blackadder1916

Halifax Tar said:


> North Atlantic Squadron
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Shes a dirty ditty, no offence meant.  This actually made this long time singer of rugby songs blush lol



Just had a flashback to the Griesbach JR in the 70s when the entertainment would often be a touch raunchy including, on at least one occasion, MacLean and MacLean.  Nothing like a mess full of half drunken soldiers singing along to this popular tune.


----------



## Remius

Zelensky addressing parliament.  He isn’t mincing his words.


----------



## MilEME09

Remius said:


> Zelensky addressing parliament.  He isn’t mincing his words.


Now isn't the time for BS from his perspective


----------



## Remius

Really wants that no fly zone.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Remius said:


> Really wants that no fly zone.



He's asking for more than we can give


----------



## NavyShooter

MilEME09 said:


> In other news Odessa may be next
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503744148997910529


How effective would those troops be...?  Numbers I recall was basically about 6 ships, wiki says that they have space for 10 tanks and 340 troops each.

That's 60 tanks, and about 2000 soldiers.  

How long have they been at sea now?  Did any of them get ashore since they left Russia, sailed through the Channel and got to the Black Sea?  

I'm wondering if, instead of landing troops, their intent is to use the shore bombardment capability of these ships and have a go at things.

I'm thinking that an opposed landing by these ships would be a bloodbath...

On the other hand, maybe that's what Putin is looking for?  Maybe a clear defeat of the landing force would give him a 'face saving' option for halting offensive operations?


----------



## MilEME09

Remius said:


> Really wants that no fly zone.


NATO doesn't have the balls to do it though, even a couple patriots on the polish border could protect Lviv from ALCMs. What Ukraine needs is the ability to control the sky's. To that end they need longer range AA, or BVR air to air missiles but most Western kit isn't compatible with their stuff and we don't have time to teach it.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Czech_pivo said:


> Hopefully the Ukrainians can saturate the landing zone and approaches will a constant stream of grad missiles and turn this landing into Gallipoli.


Most of those landing were unopposed or lightly so, fumbling by the army meant important objective were not taken in the first days, currently reading a book about it written by Keyes.


----------



## Remius

Why does May get to talk?  Geez,  she needs to stfu.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503764538797219848


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503770991826292736

If you read between the lines, these hospitals are deep inside the city. Also I bet these are Chechen troops, this has their MO written all over it.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> NATO doesn't have the balls to do it though ....


Could be why Zelensky says it may be time for a new bunch of friends ...


> ... European countries, especially those bordering Russia, are now not sure that the Alliance will not be afraid to react if Russian missiles and planes fly to them. After all, Russian state propagandists are already directly saying that the war against Ukraine is just the beginning, that other European countries will be next. This is not denied in the Kremlin.
> 
> “We emphasize that we need new formats of interaction, new determination. And if we cannot enter NATO's "open door", then we must work with communities available, communities that will help us. Like yours. And have some guarantees. We would like to have reliable guarantees that will work for us. And also for you,” the President of Ukraine noted ...


... as well as his national security advisor (FB post in Ukrainian)


> ... Ukraine needs to establish a new defense union, in which there must be a nuclear weapon-owned country ...


Late add:  And this in an end-of-day statement from the UKR Prez ....


> ... Each of more than 800 Russian missiles that have hit our country is an answer to a long-standing question about NATO. Whether the doors of the Alliance are really open for Ukraine.
> 
> If they were open, if it was fair, we would not have to convince the Alliance for 20 days that the sky over Ukraine should be closed. Closed to the death brought by the Russian Air Force. But... They don't hear or don't want to hear us yet. Some Allies have intimidated themselves. Saying that they allegedly can't answer. They cannot collide with Russian missiles and planes in the sky of Ukraine. Because this, they say, will lead to escalation, will lead to World War III...
> 
> And what will they say if Russia goes further into Europe, attacking other countries?
> 
> I'm sure it's the same thing they say to Ukraine. Article 5 of the NATO treaty has never been as weak as it is now. This is just our opinion ...


----------



## dangerboy

Remius said:


> Zelensky addressing parliament.  He isn’t mincing his words.


Here is a link to the video of the address to Parliament by President Zelenskyy: Address to Parliament by His Excellency Mr. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine


----------



## OldSolduer

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503770991826292736
> 
> If you read between the lines, these hospitals are deep inside the city. Also I bet these are Chechen troops, this has their MO written all over it.


I would not bet against you.


----------



## KevinB

When the Chechens massacre the Hospital Staff and local residents - what will the West do.

   Pretty sickening.


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> When the Chechens massacre the Hospital Staff and local residents - what will the West do.
> 
> Pretty sickening.


Send our shock and outrage, but do nothing else, it takes three people to agree to launch nukes in Russia, but we act like putin just pushes a button. We have sent the message that if you are nuclear armed, we sill not use military force against you. 

We won't help Ukraine, or Finland, hell I seriously question if we would help Estonia, even as NATO member our politicians seem unwilling to take actions that would hurt them to, but hurt the enemy more.


----------



## OceanBonfire

> Although Magrou says he can't comment on how many people have joined the legion, he confirmed Canadians, many of Ukrainian descent, comprise one of the largest groups in the unit after the United States and Britain.











						Canadians among 'most numerous nationalities' in Ukraine's foreign legion: spokesperson
					

Canadians are currently 'one of the most numerous nationalities' represented among the fighters in Ukraine's foreign legion, a spokesperson tells CTV National News.




					www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## Booter

KevinB said:


> When the Chechens massacre the Hospital Staff and local residents - what will the West do.
> 
> Pretty sickening.


Rule number 1. Do right. Even when others will not.

🤷‍♀️  The west is currently not…


----------



## MilEME09

PMs of Poland, Slovenia, and Czech Republic traveled to Kyiv by train.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503795476738588680

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503797219660550149


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Booter said:


> Rule number 1. Do right. Even when others will not.
> 
> 🤷‍♀️  The west is currently not…


Russia tried the quick rapid attack followed by mostly as bloodless as possible coup route and it failed.

Now, as expected, they've reverted to the seige tactics and have decided to fight a war of attrition/exhaustion.  Ukraine may win the war and exhaust Russia, Russia may win the war by exhaustion and also blow Eastern Ukraine to smithereens.

I don't think anyone can accurately predict what will happen in that regard.

What I can predict with certainty is the war will become far more destructive and deadly and the civilian population will pay the price for this stalemate.


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Russia tried the quick rapid attack followed by mostly as bloodless as possible coup route and it failed.
> 
> Now, as expected, they've reverted to the seige tactics and have decided to fight a war of attrition/exhaustion.  Ukraine may win the war and exhaust Russia, Russia may win the war by exhaustion and also blow Eastern Ukraine to smithereens.
> 
> I don't think anyone can accurately predict what will happen in that regard.
> 
> What I can predict with certainty is the war will become far more destructive and deadly and the civilian population will pay the price for this stalemate.


They are already kidnapping and replacing pro Ukrainian mayor's. Intelligence suggests they want to pull a donesk style referendum in Kherson and claim its an independent Republic. Ukraine may be bleeding them by being on the defense, but they will eventually need to take the offensive. Mariupol needs relief, and Russian forces are pushing forth from Kherson. They need to start pushing the red tide back or there won't be much of a country to save.


----------



## TacticalTea

Remius said:


> Why does May get to talk?  Geez,  she needs to stfu.


Similarly; I just got back from a conference on Ukraine at the local university... Because what else does one do at midday on a Tuesday, right?
Comes back to my point about pundits I made here the other day. During question period, one Ukrainian girl in the audience said more in 60 seconds than all the speakers combined in an hour and a half of circlejerking.

It's like scholars and journalists manage to cobble lots and lots of (relatively outdated) facts together, but are utterly incapable of forming a coherent picture from all that information. Many dubious comparisons to Iraq and Soviet Afghan. Very disappointing. Same thing we saw during COVID.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> When the Chechens massacre the Hospital Staff and local residents - what will the West do.



Indeterminate.  But still not worth risking escalation with NATO over.  So on to all non-military means.  Those could also be costly - economic dislocation of what has been done so far has some people worried - but if some hardship is the price for drawing a bright line across purely aggressive wars, so be it.  

Be patient.  Putin doesn't have many friends outside Russia right now, and consequently, neither does Russia have many friends outside Russia right now.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503804351692820480


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> They are already kidnapping and replacing pro Ukrainian mayor's. Intelligence suggests they want to pull a donesk style referendum in Kherson and claim its an independent Republic. Ukraine may be bleeding them by being on the defense, but they will eventually need to take the offensive. Mariupol needs relief, and Russian forces are pushing forth from Kherson. They need to start pushing the red tide back or there won't be much of a country to save.


Yep and this was always going to happen if they took over.  People in the occupied territories are going to "disappear". 

Like I said, I don't think anyone can predict what will happen militarily or how long it will go on for?

What we can predict is that the people with the least to gain and most to lose from continuation of the conflict will be the ones that suffer the most. 

Families will betray each other, purges will occur, senseless violence will occur at epidemic proportions.  Cities will be destroyed.

I personally think Kyiv is going to be a flattened smouldering ruin in about half a years time.  Whoever holds it then will say "look we won!"

But the question will be.... "won what exactly?"


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> PMs of Poland, Slovenia, and Czech Republic traveled to Kyiv by train.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503795476738588680
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503797219660550149


That's pretty ballsy - it also sends a message.


----------



## Kilted

The Ides of March have come.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> They are already kidnapping and replacing pro Ukrainian mayor's. Intelligence suggests they want to pull a donesk style referendum in Kherson and claim its an independent Republic ....


Already reportedly recruiting "new management" cops in Kherson, too (link takes you to Google English translation - alleged order, in Russian, attached) ....





						Останні новини України | UA.NEWS
					

Усі події в Україні та світі за останній час, найголовніше, огляди, аналітика та прогнози, читати українською




					ua-news.translate.goog


----------



## The Bread Guy

Zelensky's speech to Parliament (in Ukrainian), version translated by Chrome to English attached - official English version not up yet @ UKR Pres site

OP late add:  here's the link to the official English version


----------



## Skysix

KevinB said:


> That's pretty ballsy - it also sends a message.


Yeap.

If NATO doesn't stop rationalising/bloviating, get off the fence and stop channeling Chamberlain/pretending to be a military alliance pretty damn soon I predict Ukraine and all of the former Warsaw Pact recent additions will form a new nuclear armed military alliance. The only question is with which nuclear power.

Not the UK, USA or Russia obviously. Which leaves France, China, Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea.

I doubt they would be stupid enough to commit to a relationship with North Korea. Pakistan and India fight so often an Article 5 equivalent would be highly dangerous.

Which leaves France (geographically close and not dependant on Russia), Israel (possible given their lack of tolerance for threats, and probably the best choice given the number of potential Jewish citizens in the new alliance) and China. The wild card. With a history of generational length plans and strategies.

Let's add Mongolia to the alliance and the potential resources within it and well, we will likely soon see.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Skysix said:


> ... Which leaves France (geographically close and not dependant on Russia), *Israel *(possible given their lack of tolerance for threats, and probably the best choice given the number of potential Jewish citizens in the new alliance) and China ...


It doesn't appear to have been as consistent a relationship as I would have guessed.  Although there's this ...








						Ukraine is working with Israel and Turkey to set up talks with Russia, says negotiator
					

Ukraine is working with Israel and Turkey as mediators to finalise a location and framework for peace negotiations with Russia, Ukrainian presidential adviser and negotiator Mykhailo Podolyak said on Sunday.




					www.reuters.com
				



... there's also this:  one week ago ....








						‘A real opportunity’: Israel urges Ukrainian Jews to immigrate
					

About 100 Ukrainian Jews have arrived in Israel and officials say some 10,000 are expected in the coming weeks.




					www.aljazeera.com
				



... versus today








						Decisions of Israeli leadership aimed at limiting admission of Ukrainians surprising – Yermak
					

The new rules for entry of Ukrainians into Israel are surprising, Andriy Yermak, head of the President's Office, said.




					en.interfax.com.ua
				











						Israel said to reach cap on non-Jewish Ukraine refugees, days after announcing limit
					

Immigration authority says over 7,000 Ukrainians have arrived since start of fighting, of whom 5,000 don't have immigration rights -- the maximum the government will allow




					www.timesofisrael.com


----------



## MilEME09

Not liking the Russian gains on the map


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503827414597746691


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> That's pretty ballsy - it also sends a message.


It actually is kind of ballsy. I'm a bit surprised that the Czechs are actually present.  They are fairly risk averse.  I think its a bit of a 'been there, done that' situation for them, 1938/39 when no one came to their aid and again in 1968.  I guess they are laying the groundwork to ensure that it doesn't happen to them again. 

It would be interesting to see what would happen if they, and maybe the Slovaks/Romanians all went in and establish 'safe corridors to Poland/Slovakia/Romanian for refugees within Ukraine.  Forget planes over the corridors, just saturate the corridor with AA.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503830860394643462


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> It actually is kind of ballsy. I'm a bit surprised that the Czechs are actually present.  They are fairly risk averse.  I think its a bit of a 'been there, done that' situation for them, 1938/39 when no one came to their aid and again in 1968.  I guess they are laying the groundwork to ensure that it doesn't happen to them again.
> 
> It would be interesting to see what would happen if they, and maybe the Slovaks/Romanians all went in and establish 'safe corridors to Poland/Slovakia/Romanian for refugees within Ukraine.  Forget planes over the corridors, just saturate the corridor with AA.


I suspect the newer additions to NATO are somewhat less enthusiastic about an Iron Curtain 2.0, and also maybe not to adverse about using force outside of NATO to ensure it doesn't get close -- plus thumbing it to Vlad for the home audience also boosts them.


----------



## Kirkhill

Zipperhead99 said:


> An interesting take regarding China's "support" of Russia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Was China Betting on Russian Defeat All Along? | Geopolitical Monitor
> 
> 
> The best outcome of the Ukraine invasion for Beijing is a weakened, isolated, and dependent Russia. Perhaps this was the plan all along.
> 
> 
> 
> www.geopoliticalmonitor.com



Do you suppose?


----------



## Kirkhill

NavyShooter said:


> How effective would those troops be...?  Numbers I recall was basically about 6 ships, wiki says that they have space for 10 tanks and 340 troops each.
> 
> That's 60 tanks, and about 2000 soldiers.
> 
> How long have they been at sea now?  Did any of them get ashore since they left Russia, sailed through the Channel and got to the Black Sea?
> 
> I'm wondering if, instead of landing troops, their intent is to use the shore bombardment capability of these ships and have a go at things.
> 
> I'm thinking that an opposed landing by these ships would be a bloodbath...
> 
> On the other hand, maybe that's what Putin is looking for?  Maybe a clear defeat of the landing force would give him a 'face saving' option for halting offensive operations?



60 "Tanks" probably means 60 "Vehicles".

A BTG is 10 Tanks and 40 IFVs before you start loading command and arty and logistics.

So a BTG (Battle Group) with a bunch of dismounted support?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Kirkhill said:


> 60 "Tanks" probably means 60 "Vehicles".
> 
> A BTG is 10 Tanks and 40 IFVs before you start loading command and arty and logistics.
> 
> So a BTG (Battle Group) with a bunch of dismounted support?


I quipped to an Int O friend that the Russians could roll in with a Winnebago and the MSM would call it a "tank." 

All that time memorizing the features of a BTR-90 were for naught


----------



## dapaterson

rmc_wannabe said:


> I quipped to an Int O friend that the Russians could roll in with a Winnebago and the MSM would call it a "tank."
> 
> All that time memorizing the features of a BTR-90 were for naught



Clearly you are not familiar with the EM-50 urban assault vehicle.


----------



## Kirkhill

JEF



The Bread Guy said:


> Could be why Zelensky says it may be time for a new bunch of friends ...
> 
> ... as well as his national security advisor (FB post in Ukrainian)
> 
> Late add:  And this in an end-of-day statement from the UKR Prez ....





> First of all, the President thanked the partner countries of Ukraine for the support and assistance they provide.
> 
> “Our people will always remember who came to the rescue at the most difficult time for our state,” he said.
> 
> Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized that the world needs new security guarantees, as the old ones have proved their ineffectiveness.
> 
> ...European countries, especially those bordering Russia, are now not sure that the Alliance will not be afraid to react if Russian missiles and planes fly to them....
> 
> “We emphasize that we need new formats of interaction, new determination. And *if we cannot enter NATO's "open door", then we must work with communities available, communities that will help us. Like yours.* And have some guarantees. We would like to have reliable guarantees that will work for us. And also for you,” the President of Ukraine noted ...












						Joint Expeditionary Force leaders' statement: 15 March 2022
					

Leaders' statement from the Joint Expeditionary Force meeting.




					www.gov.uk
				








						Nauseda: JEF leaders discuss air defense for Ukraine, sanctions on Russians
					

VILNIUS – Leaders of countries contributing to the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) discussed air defense support to Ukraine and san...




					www.baltictimes.com
				











						JEF members "committed to supporting Ukraine at pace with military aid"
					

Following a joint meeting in the UK on March 14-15, the member nations of the Joint Expeditionary Force military formation, of which Latvia is one, issued the following statement.




					eng.lsm.lv
				








						Estonian PM at JEF summit: The aim is full isolation of Putin
					

TALLINN - At a meeting on Monday of the leaders of the countries that are part of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), convened at the invitatio...




					www.baltictimes.com
				











						Prime Minister to host Nordic and Baltic leaders as he pushes to bolster European resilience and defence
					

Nordic and Baltic leaders will attend a summit in London this week hosted by Prime Minister Boris Johnson.




					www.gov.uk
				




As I have noted elsewhere JEF has been adopting an independent line to NATO and to the EU.

UK
Netherlands
Denmark
Norway
Sweden
Finland
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Iceland

Norway, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania all have skin in the game, sharing borders with Russia.
Denmark is tightly integrated with Norway and Sweden as well as with Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

Sweden and Finland are not in NATO although they are recognized as partners.  They pursue their own foreign policy.
Britain is in NATO but not in the EU.  It pursues its own foreign policy
Britain has its own, independent nuclear deterrent.

If NATO and the EU won't step up others may feel they have to.

Ukraine already has a treaty with Poland and the UK.

Poland, Slovenia and Czechia in Kyiv?  And previously arguing against Germany, Hungary, Bulgaria and Italy? 

New list?

UK
Iceland
Netherlands
Denmark
Norway
Sweden
Finland
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania

Poland
Czechia
Slovenia

Ukraine?

Not sure about the Netherlands.  Although they co-operate with the UK's Royal Marines they also participate in a German Brigade and a French Brigade.  More importantly they vociferously sided with France in denying Ukraine a fast track entry into the EU.  

Germany, Hungary, Bulgaria and Italy argued against EU sanctions on Russia because it would limit their access to steel, aluminum and a bunch of other strategic stuff they get from Russia.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503843253367492613

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503842886382764038
Ukraine has probably recovered a tank brigade Worth of kit if they could actually concentrate it.


----------



## Kirkhill

dapaterson said:


> Clearly you are not familiar with the EM-50 urban assault vehicle.



I don't care if you want to park a tank here.  It's my parking spot.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503848432934572041
Interesting development


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503830860394643462



By my count it looks as if 89 routes are currently being exploited.  Thats up from 70 or so a couple of days ago.  They don't seem to be concentrating their efforts.


----------



## TacticalTea

Kirkhill said:


> JEF
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Joint Expeditionary Force leaders' statement: 15 March 2022
> 
> 
> Leaders' statement from the Joint Expeditionary Force meeting.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.gov.uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Nauseda: JEF leaders discuss air defense for Ukraine, sanctions on Russians
> 
> 
> VILNIUS – Leaders of countries contributing to the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) discussed air defense support to Ukraine and san...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.baltictimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> JEF members "committed to supporting Ukraine at pace with military aid"
> 
> 
> Following a joint meeting in the UK on March 14-15, the member nations of the Joint Expeditionary Force military formation, of which Latvia is one, issued the following statement.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> eng.lsm.lv
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Estonian PM at JEF summit: The aim is full isolation of Putin
> 
> 
> TALLINN - At a meeting on Monday of the leaders of the countries that are part of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), convened at the invitatio...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.baltictimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Prime Minister to host Nordic and Baltic leaders as he pushes to bolster European resilience and defence
> 
> 
> Nordic and Baltic leaders will attend a summit in London this week hosted by Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.gov.uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As I have noted elsewhere JEF has been adopting an independent line to NATO and to the EU.
> 
> UK
> Netherlands
> Denmark
> Norway
> Sweden
> Finland
> Estonia
> Latvia
> Lithuania
> Iceland
> 
> Norway, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania all have skin in the game, sharing borders with Russia.
> Denmark is tightly integrated with Norway and Sweden as well as with Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
> 
> Sweden and Finland are not in NATO although they are recognized as partners.  They pursue their own foreign policy.
> Britain is in NATO but not in the EU.  It pursues its own foreign policy
> Britain has its own, independent nuclear deterrent.
> 
> If NATO and the EU won't step up others may feel they have to.
> 
> Ukraine already has a treaty with Poland and the UK.
> 
> Poland, Slovenia and Czechia in Kyiv?  And previously arguing against Germany, Hungary, Bulgaria and Italy?
> 
> New list?
> 
> UK
> Iceland
> Netherlands
> Denmark
> Norway
> Sweden
> Finland
> Estonia
> Latvia
> Lithuania
> 
> Poland
> Czechia
> Slovenia
> 
> Ukraine?
> 
> Not sure about the Netherlands.  Although they co-operate with the UK's Royal Marines they also participate in a German Brigade and a French Brigade.  More importantly they vociferously sided with France in denying Ukraine a fast track entry into the EU.
> 
> Germany, Hungary, Bulgaria and Italy argued against EU sanctions on Russia because it would limit their access to steel, aluminum and a bunch of other strategic stuff they get from Russia.





Skysix said:


> Yeap.
> 
> If NATO doesn't stop rationalising/bloviating, get off the fence and stop channeling Chamberlain/pretending to be a military alliance pretty damn soon I predict Ukraine and all of the former Warsaw Pact recent additions will form a new nuclear armed military alliance. The only question is with which nuclear power.
> 
> Not the UK, USA or Russia obviously. Which leaves France, China, Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea.
> 
> I doubt they would be stupid enough to commit to a relationship with North Korea. Pakistan and India fight so often an Article 5 equivalent would be highly dangerous.
> 
> Which leaves France (geographically close and not dependant on Russia), Israel (possible given their lack of tolerance for threats, and probably the best choice given the number of potential Jewish citizens in the new alliance) and China. The wild card. With a history of generational length plans and strategies.
> 
> Let's add Mongolia to the alliance and the potential resources within it and well, we will likely soon see.


Dangerous times.

I wouldn't mind a pan-european defence initiative, even if it means NATO (read, Canada/US) is evacuated in favour of a more global organization to include, prominently, ANZAC, ROK, and JAP. But a fracturing of continental Europe seems extremely dangerous to me, from a long-term perspective.

And the fact that it would come as a consequence of NATO's inaction just highlights how untenable and irresponsible it is for NATO to stand idle right now.


----------



## MilEME09

I read the analysis below as Russian losses have made them unable to under take large scale offensive operations. Also that depending on supplies, Mariupol likely has about a week left before if falls if no relief occurs.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503854591263363073


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503848432934572041
> Interesting development


Good catch - more on POL's idea ...








						Poland's Kaczynski calls for peacekeeping mission in Ukraine
					

An international peacekeeping mission should be sent to operate in Ukraine, the leader of Poland's ruling party said on Tuesday during a press conference in Kyiv alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## MilEME09

Ukrainian SOF managed to hit the Russian forces at the Kherson Airport again today, atleast 6 aircraft damaged or destroyed.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503865025722728448


----------



## The Bread Guy

The Bread Guy said:


> Could be why Zelensky says it may be time for a new bunch of friends ...
> 
> ... as well as his national security advisor (FB post in Ukrainian)
> 
> Late add:  And this in an end-of-day statement from the UKR Prez ....


Aaaaaaaaaaaand RUS state media's take on all this (esp. the national security advisor's line)?  *"Ukraine seeks nuclear allies"*


----------



## Brad Sallows

Gee.  I can imagine all sorts of nuclear powers are lining up to commit themselves to be drawn into a nuclear war by entering into a joint defence pact with non-nuclear powers.


----------



## TacticalTea

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503867281817882635
Add your euphemism of choice.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503707112916107270
Interesting development. The resistance is slowly building up.


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503848432934572041
> Interesting development


Anyone get the sense our PM will try to go into Kiev riding a snowmobile and paddling a canoe for the photo-op?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

TacticalTea said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503867281817882635
> Add your euphemism of choice.


To shreds you say? How awful....


----------



## armrdsoul77

Czech_pivo said:


> Anyone get the sense our PM will try to go into Kiev riding a snowmobile and paddling a canoe for the photo-op?


He makes Mr Dressup look like a slouch.


----------



## gryphonv

I don't understand why so many Flag Officers are so close to the front lines.

This is like the 5th or 6 RUS General I've heard that has died in the conflict. Take it all with a grain of salt, because of fog of war and such.

I'm not some tactical genius, but I would think any first year Officer Cadet would be told not to put the top of your command in harms way.


----------



## TacticalTea

gryphonv said:


> I don't understand why so many Flag Officers are so close to the front lines.
> 
> This is like the 5th or 6 RUS General I've heard that has died in the conflict. Take it all with a grain of salt, because of fog of war and such.
> 
> I'm not some tactical genius, but I would think any first year Officer Cadet would be told not to put the top of your command in harms way.


They have a very different command culture.

NCOs - and JOs, from what I gather - are not empowered to take initiative. So when issues arise, Snr Os have to move forward to unfuck whatever is going on. That trickles up the chain and brings GOFOs on the battlefield. I'd presume they're still far from the frontline, but so are Ukrainian SOFs.


----------



## MilEME09

Heard alot of reports of Ukrainian counter attacks, we shall see if this one's true.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503871576726462468


----------



## Kirkhill

> Condemning countries that care more about money than _“democratic values,”_ Danilov said some Western states are on Kiev’s side, but others _“left us hanging at a tough moment,”_ and their names will live in infamy.
> 
> Danilov dismissed a _“bunch of international organizations created after the Second World War”_ that _“don’t affect anything, but only express concern.”
> 
> “Ukraine needs to make a new defensive alliance, which must include a country with nuclear weapons. Today that is Great Britain,”_ he said.



I have been looking for that content since I saw it online a couple of hours ago.  It was referenced on one of the JEF links but then disappeared.


----------



## Kirkhill

Apparently there was a Tochka missile strike on Donetsk that was being blamed on Ukraine.  (Cluster munitions)
Its tail was pointing towards Russia.  No Ukrainians in that direction.









						CIT: Tochka-U strike on Donetsk was Russia’s provocation
					

March 14 shelling of Donetsk with a Tochka-U missile with cluster munitions was Russia’s provocation. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Brad Sallows

Great headline at CBC: "Many Ukrainians now believe they can defeat Russia's army, complicating diplomatic negotiations"

Those bastards, complicating the diplomatic negotiations to dismember and disarm their country.


----------



## MilEME09

MilEME09 said:


> Heard alot of reports of Ukrainian counter attacks, we shall see if this one's true.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503871576726462468




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503878234840129536


----------



## KevinB

gryphonv said:


> I don't understand why so many Flag Officers are so close to the front lines.
> 
> This is like the 5th or 6 RUS General I've heard that has died in the conflict. Take it all with a grain of salt, because of fog of war and such.
> 
> I'm not some tactical genius, but I would think any first year Officer Cadet would be told not to put the top of your command in harms way.


@TacticalTea already pointed out some of it, but the Russians have no real method of communicating accurate reports across much distance at all. 

Also Russian formations have oddly inflated rank for their actual size.   Where most would put a Lt Col, the Russians will put a Colonel or higher.

From what I have tallied this is at least the 11th GO/FO who got FRP’d the hard way. Well over 25 Colonels.

It will make the job much easier for Russians Department of Veteran Affairs.


----------



## Furniture

TacticalTea said:


> They have a very different command culture.
> 
> NCOs - and JOs, from what I gather - are not empowered to take initiative. So when issues arise, Snr Os have to move forward to unfuck whatever is going on. That trickles up the chain and brings GOFOs on the battlefield. I'd presume they're still far from the frontline, but so are Ukrainian SOFs.





KevinB said:


> @TacticalTea already pointed out some of it, but the Russians have no real method of communicating accurate reports across much distance at all.
> 
> Also Russian formations have oddly inflated rank for their actual size.   Where most would put a Lt Col, the Russians will put a Colonel or higher.
> 
> From what I have tallied this is at least the 11th GO/FO who got FRP’d the hard way. Well over 25 Colonels.
> 
> It will make the job much easier for Russians Department of Veteran Affairs.


I wonder if part of it is also that the Russian generals have realized they need to be up at the front to keep morale from breaking. I imagine even in Russia there is some leadership training, even if only by accident.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> @TacticalTea already pointed out some of it, but the Russians have no real method of communicating accurate reports across much distance at all.
> 
> Also Russian formations have oddly inflated rank for their actual size.   Where most would put a Lt Col, the Russians will put a Colonel or higher.
> 
> From what I have tallied this is at least the 11th GO/FO who got FRP’d the hard way. Well over 25 Colonels.
> 
> It will make the job much easier for Russians Department of Veteran Affairs.


Coupled with the fact that most of their tactical level comms are designed to use 3G and 4G towers; that they have destroyed around Day 1, they're resorting to unencrypted cellphones and HF for most of their C2. 

If they have no concept of Mission Command to their Jnr Officers and Snr NCO, I can see a need to lead from the front. Galactically stupid nonetheless.


----------



## MilEME09

rmc_wannabe said:


> Coupled with the fact that most of their tactical level comms are designed to use 3G and 4G towers; that they have destroyed around Day 1, they're resorting to unencrypted cellphones and HF for most of their C2.
> 
> If they have no concept of Mission Command to their Jnr Officers and Snr NCO, I can see a need to lead from the front. Galactically stupid nonetheless.


Watching OSINT feeds, even their strategic bombers are operating in the clear going on attack runs with ALCMs.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:


> I have been looking for that content since I saw it online a couple of hours ago.  It was referenced on one of the JEF links but then disappeared.


In this UKR media piece (Google English translation) and the UKR nat'l security council FB post here (in Ukrainian, but translatable within the post)

Meanwhile, interesting factoid if true ....








						Western military aid for one week spent by Ukraine in 20 hours – Zelensky
					

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky has called for an increase in the volume of military assistance from partners.




					en.interfax.com.ua


----------



## GK .Dundas

Brad Sallows said:


> Great headline at CBC: "Many Ukrainians now believe they can defeat Russia's army, complicating diplomatic negotiations"
> 
> Those bastards, complicating the diplomatic negotiations to dismember and disarm their country.


When I did contract security at the CBC here in Winnipeg in the late 80's. There was an editor in the newsroom who was infamous for tearing strips off people who wrote bone headed prose.. 
In those days the news staffers were condemned to this gulag like trailer arrangement. You could hear him from one end of the building  to the other and on some legendary occasions see it shake as some benighted soul who had transgressed against his beloved English language would be lectured as to  their failings.
That sound you hear? I suspect that's him rolling over in his grave.


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> In this UKR media piece (Google English translation) and the UKR nat'l security council FB post here (in Ukrainian, but translatable within the post)
> 
> Meanwhile, interesting factoid if true ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Western military aid for one week spent by Ukraine in 20 hours – Zelensky
> 
> 
> President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky has called for an increase in the volume of military assistance from partners.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.interfax.com.ua



Seen.  Thanks, mate!


----------



## Dana381

Furniture said:


> I wonder if part of it is also that the Russian generals have realized they need to be up at the front to keep morale from breaking. I imagine even in Russia there is some leadership training, even if only by accident.



Maybe Russian generals are going to the front because the rear will require them to answer for failing. Die shamed for failure or die a hero fighting the enemy.


----------



## Prairie canuck

MilEME09 said:


> Watching OSINT feeds, even their strategic bombers are operating in the clear going on attack runs with ALCMs.


Is there a land based system for the SM-6? if so would it reach those bombers?


----------



## Jarnhamar

Czech_pivo said:


> Anyone get the sense our PM will try to go into Kiev riding a snowmobile and paddling a canoe for the photo-op?


It would be next level trolling if Trudeau drove to Kiev in a semi tractor trailer. 



In other news it appears that having decent night vision equipment is a force multiplier. Maybe we can get the Talibans hand me downs once they upgrade.


----------



## MilEME09

Prairie canuck said:


> Is there a land based system for the SM-6? if so would it reach those bombers?


Negative,  nothing I can find any way


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503871634830151685


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

I honestly find it hard to believe they have the manpower/equipment to do offensives.  Not to mention the hold fast thing seems to be in their favour.........guess we'll find out.


----------



## Remius

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> I honestly find it hard to believe they have the manpower/equipment to do offensives.  Not to mention the hold fast thing seems to be in their favour.........guess we'll find out.


Maybe they figured the Russians didn’t have the manpower and equipment to do défensives and saw an opportunity…

The Russians seem to want to talk and take those opportunities to regroup and try to replenish.  Maybe the UKR for es figured “hey they want to talk, we should say yes and start an offensive”.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Germans committing to buying F-35’s now.  The Russians may have awoken the few remaining Prussians alive in Germany. 

Are we going to be the only ones, besides the French, to not buy the F35?  Anyone want to give odds on this?









						Germany will buy US-made F-35 fighter jets as it ramps up military spending after Russia's Ukraine invasion | CNN
					

Germany has announced that it will buy 35 US-made F-35A fighter jets, the first major arms purchase to be publicly confirmed since Chancellor Olaf Scholz committed to ramping up his country's defense spending in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Zipperhead99

Jarnhamar said:


> It would be next level trolling if Trudeau drove to Kiev in a semi tractor trailer.
> 
> 
> 
> In other news it appears that having decent night vision equipment is a force multiplier. Maybe we can get the Talibans hand me downs once they upgrade.


Speaking of tractors, it appears that Osprey Publishing is getting in on the action


----------



## Prairie canuck

MilEME09 said:


> Negative,  nothing I can find any way


Is there a land based system with the range? 200 - 400kms? (sneaking it in there is a whole other matter)


----------



## MilEME09

Prairie canuck said:


> Is there a land based system with the range? 200 - 400kms? (sneaking it in there is a whole other matter)


Only thing I can think of is the PAC-3 patriot batteries, but I'm sure there are others.

I'm other developments, it would appear Russian troops, atleast some are refusing to go back to the front.



			https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/03/16/russian-soldiers-are-refusing-to-redeploy-to-ukraine-citing-reasons-including-unwillingness-to-become-cannon-fodder-photographic-proof/


----------



## Zipperhead99

Interesting article on China's "support" to Russia, apparently they do not want to kill the Golden Goose by becoming tangled up in US sanctions






						China says It wants to avoid US sanctions over Russia’s war
					

China wants to avoid being impacted by U.S. sanctions over Russia’s war, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, in one of Beijing’s most explicit statements yet on American penalties that are contributing to a historic market selloff.




					ajot.com


----------



## Remius

Zipperhead99 said:


> Interesting article on China's "support" to Russia, apparently they do not want to kill the Golden Goose by becoming tangled up in US sanctions
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> China says It wants to avoid US sanctions over Russia’s war
> 
> 
> China wants to avoid being impacted by U.S. sanctions over Russia’s war, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, in one of Beijing’s most explicit statements yet on American penalties that are contributing to a historic market selloff.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ajot.com


Friendly but only to a point…


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest stats from UKR mil int ....

... and this via UKR's MoD - RUS to mil school senior students:  anyone wanting to finish early, put up your hands ....


> ... The enemy is trying to strengthen the grouping of troops by additionally transferring to the territory of Ukraine battalion tactical groups formed of consolidated units that suffered losses during the first ten days of the operation, military mercenaries from among foreign nationals. In addition, according to available information, the russian military leadership has decided to release early cadets of higher military educational institutions in the russian federation with their subsequent involvement in hostilities against Ukraine ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Today's reminder to the troops, via UKR's mil int info-machine (Google English - PDF of UKR & English also attached) ....


----------



## KevinB

American troops exceed 100k in Europe now...









						US has 100,000 troops in Europe for first time since 2005
					

A big difference between now and the U.S. military’s Cold War footprint is that American forces are spread out far and wide in 19 countries.




					www.stripes.com


----------



## Remius

KevinB said:


> American troops exceed 100k in Europe now...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> US has 100,000 troops in Europe for first time since 2005
> 
> 
> A big difference between now and the U.S. military’s Cold War footprint is that American forces are spread out far and wide in 19 countries.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.stripes.com


I’m sure Putin really wanted that…


----------



## Czech_pivo

Remius said:


> I’m sure Putin really wanted that…


I'm seeing lots of Twitter pics of US tanks being shipped into Poland from Germany.  

It took from 28 June when Franz Ferdinand was assassinated until 4 Aug when it become WW1, just saying.


----------



## Good2Golf

Remius said:


> I’m sure Putin really wanted that…


I think he and his _siloviki_ thought they had it in the bag.  Now it’s the mother of all hot messes.


----------



## The Bread Guy

If I were Russia, how could I possibly set the stage for a "dirty bomb" false flag incident at a Ukrainian nuclear power plant?  Hmmm ...








						Invaders intend to dispose of unexploded mines at Zaporizhia NPP right next to power unit 1 – Energoatom
					

Russian invaders are going to dispose of mines that did not explode during the capture of Zaporizhia nuclear power plant (NPP) near power unit 1, National Nuclear Generating Company Energoatom has reported.




					en.interfax.com.ua
				











						Invaders keep setting off UXOs, mines at Zaporizhia NPP
					

As of March 16, Russian troops continue to detonate munitions and mines at the premises of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant they earlier seized. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> I'm seeing lots of Twitter pics of US tanks being shipped into Poland from Germany.
> 
> It took from 28 June when Franz Ferdinand was assassinated until 4 Aug when it become WW1, just saying.


Also anyone studying US Army tactics of late will also show that a build up this size is much akin to the Samurai drawing their sword -- it doesn't go back into the sheath until it has drawn blood...


----------



## Remius

Zelenski is showing the US Congress a graphic montage right now…

The man knows how to make an impact.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Also anyone studying US Army tactics of late will also show that a build up this size is much akin to the Samurai drawing their sword -- it doesn't go back into the sheath until it has drawn blood...


I booked our plane tickets to Europe for a summer vacation over the weekend.  Still wondering what will happen between now and mid-end of July when we go. 
Into Dubrovnik for a week and then fly into Toulouse and drive to Arcachon for 9 days before out to Dublin for 2 days and then home. Fingers crossed.


----------



## KevinB

Remius said:


> Zelenski is showing the US Congress a graphic montage right now…
> 
> The man knows how to make an impact.


He's a remarkable man -  I linked a profile of him a few days ago here from the NYT.
   Clearly the case of the Right Person at the Right Time.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> I booked our plane tickets to Europe for a summer vacation over the weekend.  Still wondering what will happen between now and mid-end of July when we go.
> Into Dubrovnik for a week and then fly into Toulouse and drive to Arcachon for 9 days before out to Dublin for 2 days and then home. Fingers crossed.


I had my parents scratch their intended trip to Europe in Sept/Oct, I don't think anyone will want to be in Europe unless their in uniform after April...


----------



## tomydoom

Czech_pivo said:


> I booked our plane tickets to Europe for a summer vacation over the weekend.  Still wondering what will happen between now and mid-end of July when we go.
> Into Dubrovnik for a week and then fly into Toulouse and drive to Arcachon for 9 days before out to Dublin for 2 days and then home. Fingers crossed.


PM me when you're in Dublin.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> I had my parents scratch their intended trip to Europe in Sept/Oct, I don't think anyone will want to be in Europe unless their in uniform after April...


Thanks for the optimism!

I was in and out of Slovenia in the 94-96 time period when it was 'hot' in Croatia, 1-200 kms to the south.  I think being in Croatia/France/Ireland will be fine.  Now, if I was visiting my neighbours family in Rzeszow, Poland, things might be different.


----------



## tomydoom

KevinB said:


> I had my parents scratch their intended trip to Europe in Sept/Oct, I don't think anyone will want to be in Europe unless their in uniform after April...


Kind of tough for those of us that live in Europe.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Thanks for the optimism!





tomydoom said:


> Kind of tough for those of us that live in Europe.


I'm a realist.   When Russia started shelling the cities - the line was crossed.
  No one admitted it openly - but it was clear that Russia wasn't going to stop, and we cannot let them take Ukraine.

Start digging, have a green house.


----------



## Haggis

KevinB said:


> I'm a realist.   When Russia started shelling the cities - the line was crossed.
> No one admitted it openly - but it was clear that Russia wasn't going to stop, and we cannot let them take Ukraine.
> 
> Start digging, have a green house.


This will spin out of control as a result of one of two things:

Bad Russian map reading by a unit in western Ukraine; or
Bad Russian targeting in western Ukraine.


----------



## KevinB

Haggis said:


> This will spin out of control as a result of one of two things:
> 
> Bad Russian map reading by a unit in western Ukraine; or
> Bad Russian targeting in western Ukraine.


The only person able to to stop it at this point is 1x Vlad, he can suck it up and roll home, he won't, so there will be a larger War.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Czech_pivo said:


> I'm seeing lots of Twitter pics of US tanks being shipped into Poland from Germany.
> 
> It took from 28 June when Franz Ferdinand was assassinated until 4 Aug when it become WW1, just saying.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Anyone see this little snippet of news from yesterday's speech by Zelensky to Parliament.

Something else you may have missed in the coverage of the speech: *Someone brought a crying baby into the House of Commons for the event.*


----------



## KevinB

More countries getting Hawkish...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504101505430921222


----------



## KevinB

and Russian troops shooting more Ukrainian civilians

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503790779835236352


----------



## Quirky

Czech_pivo said:


> Anyone see this little snippet of news from yesterday's speech by Zelensky to Parliament.
> 
> Something else you may have missed in the coverage of the speech: *Someone brought a crying baby into the House of Commons for the event.*



Commenter from a twatter.

Stephanie George @mytimeatlast.... 
Profile: 
"Mom/wife, feminist, Indigenous Midwife, IBCLC, Oneida/biracial, Instructor McMaster, #SickNotWeak ambassador. My anagram is Thespian"

Who are these people.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Remius said:


> Why does May get to talk?  Geez,  she needs to stfu.



She is like the drunk, confused, not-so-popular aunt at  wedding who makes a toast at the reception and everyone is thinking "here she goes again...sigh".


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Quirky said:


> Who are these people.



Remember the citizens of The Capital in Hunger Games?


----------



## Remius

Eye In The Sky said:


> She is like the drunk, confused, not-so-popular aunt at  wedding who makes a toast at the reception and everyone is thinking "here she goes again...sigh".


It was one of the most embarrassing things I’ve seen to come out of the HofC.  And that’s saying a lot.


----------



## Kirkhill

Some interesting stats there now that we have a three week sample.

Given the emphasis on the Battalion Tactical Group and the central role of the tank:

430 tanks - 10 tanks to the company = 43 companies  - 1 company to the BTG = 43 BTGs 
Base line

1375 Armoured Vehicles / 430 tanks = 3.19  - 32 Armd Vehs  per BTG or 
1 company of tanks and 3 companies of armoured vehicles
No particular surprises there

43 Air Defence Vehicles / 430 tanks = 0.1 - 1 Air Defence Vehicle per BTG 
Seems kind of light?

190 Guns / 430 tanks = 0.44 = 4 guns per BTG
70 MLRS / 430 tanks = 0.16 = 1-2 MLRS per BTG
190 Guns / 70 MLRS = 2.7 = 3? guns per MLRS?
Seems quite conventional and not reflective of a major shift from guns to rockets let alone PGMs.

108 Helicopters / 430 tanks = 0.25 = 4 helicopters per BTG

819 Softskin Vehicles / 430 tanks - 1.9 - call it 2 - 20 trucks to sustain  all that lot?
Corroboration of the impact of the lack of useful logistics?


----------



## YZT580

I can't stop thinking about 9/11 in comparison.  We have a madman in control of the scenario whilst we sit in our seats and watch in horror but don't do anything to affect our destiny.  Only in one is their any concrete resistance.  Those who work in this field, the experts, say it is not a question of if but rather of when.  So why aren't we writing the script instead of standing on the sidelines and praising those on that one a/c?


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Haggis said:


> This will spin out of control as a result of one of two things:
> 
> Bad Russian map reading by a unit in western Ukraine; or
> Bad Russian targeting in western Ukraine.



....










						Russian Attack On Base Brings War In Ukraine Right To NATO's Doorstep
					

A Russian air strike hit a Ukrainian military base just a few kilometers from the border with NATO member Poland, killing 35 people and wounding dozens more as Moscow intensifies its offensive across Ukraine, sparking angry protests across Europe.




					www.rferl.org


----------



## tomydoom

Eye In The Sky said:


> ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian Attack On Base Brings War In Ukraine Right To NATO's Doorstep
> 
> 
> A Russian air strike hit a Ukrainian military base just a few kilometers from the border with NATO member Poland, killing 35 people and wounding dozens more as Moscow intensifies its offensive across Ukraine, sparking angry protests across Europe.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rferl.org


Or this,









						Russian politician tells Putin to 'fire warning missile' at US base - Extra.ie
					

A Russian politician has urged Vladimir Putin to fire 'a ballistic missile' at the largest weapon testing site in the US as a warning.



					extra.ie


----------



## GK .Dundas

tomydoom said:


> Or this,
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian politician tells Putin to 'fire warning missile' at US base - Extra.ie
> 
> 
> A Russian politician has urged Vladimir Putin to fire 'a ballistic missile' at the largest weapon testing site in the US as a warning.
> 
> 
> 
> extra.ie


if not for the subject matter isn't it nice to know we don't have a monopoly on truly stupid or in his case deranged politicians


----------



## Good2Golf

Eye In The Sky said:


> She is like the drunk, confused, not-so-popular aunt at  wedding who makes a toast at the reception and everyone is thinking "here she goes again...sigh".


Well…she wasn’t any worse than Bob Rae’s embarrassingly far-too-long, preachy ramblings at the UNGA resolution meeting the week before last… 🤦🏻


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504129483888111618


----------



## tomydoom

GK .Dundas said:


> if not for the subject matter isn't it nice to know we don't have a monopoly on truly stupid or in his case deranged politicians


He MUST know that, doing that would be the END of Russia, probably the rest of us too.  The level of irresponsibility is truly mind boggling.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Good2Golf said:


> Well…she wasn’t any worse than Bob Rae’s embarrassingly far-too-long, preachy ramblings at the UNGA resolution meeting the week before last… 🤦🏻



Uncle Bob and Aunt Beth?


----------



## Kirkhill

Signed today.

Romania emphasising it has picked a side?









						GDELS signs agreement to produce armoured vehicles in Romania
					

General Dynamics European Land Systems (GDELS) has agreed to support the production of wheeled armoured vehicles in Romania.




					www.army-technology.com
				












						Romania on edge as Russia invades Ukraine
					

Despite assurances from Romania’s leadership, many in the Eastern European nation fear wider Russian attacks.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## McG

MilEME09 said:


> Watching OSINT feeds, even their strategic bombers are operating in the clear going on attack runs with ALCMs.





Prairie canuck said:


> Is there a land based system for the SM-6? if so would it reach those bombers?





Prairie canuck said:


> Is there a land based system with the range? 200 - 400kms? (sneaking it in there is a whole other matter)





MilEME09 said:


> Only thing I can think of is the PAC-3 patriot batteries, but I'm sure there are others.


Are there any NATO countries still holding some S-300 that could be passed to Ukraine?


----------



## KevinB

YZT580 said:


> I can't stop thinking about 9/11 in comparison.  We have a madman in control of the scenario whilst we sit in our seats and watch in horror but don't do anything to affect our destiny.  Only in one is their any concrete resistance.  Those who work in this field, the experts, say it is not a question of if but rather of when.  So why aren't we writing the script instead of standing on the sidelines and praising those on that one a/c?


1) We needed time to move enough assets into the surrounding areas to have a credible force to make Russia think about the next step.
2) Putin is rather erratic so one never knows what his idea of a next step is...
3) Due to #2 it makes it hard to figure out what the best COA is 
4) Eventually we the West will push back - and then we shall see what occurs when Nuclear powers become involved in a Hot War on opposite sides.
     Which is why I think a strong message about no punishing Russians and Russia for Putins's action is needed, and guarantees made to that affect.


----------



## SupersonicMax

Czech_pivo said:


> Anyone see this little snippet of news from yesterday's speech by Zelensky to Parliament.
> 
> Something else you may have missed in the coverage of the speech: *Someone brought a crying baby into the House of Commons for the event.*



So what?


----------



## Czech_pivo

SupersonicMax said:


> So what?


I guess our standards of what is acceptable and what is not acceptable are different and I have no issue with that.  But at first glance, without knowing the entire details (like the person involved is Ukrainian and their spouse/family/friends are fighting in Ukraine), I find it unacceptable and not taking the thoughts/feelings of others around them under consideration.


----------



## Spencer100

Czech_pivo said:


> I booked our plane tickets to Europe for a summer vacation over the weekend.  Still wondering what will happen between now and mid-end of July when we go.
> Into Dubrovnik for a week and then fly into Toulouse and drive to Arcachon for 9 days before out to Dublin for 2 days and then home. Fingers crossed.


Me too....urgh.  Detroit to Paris.


----------



## HumblePie

McG said:


> Are there any NATO countries still holding some S-300 that could be passed to Ukraine?




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504161422393200641


----------



## KevinB

McG said:


> Are there any NATO countries still holding some S-300 that could be passed to Ukraine?




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504164472696549377


----------



## KevinB

Russia still keep shelling cities 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504161722206232580


----------



## KevinB

NATO defense ministers vow to enhance deployments near Russia
					

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created a new era that requires a sharply enhanced effort to increase deterrence and avoid Russian miscalculation, NATO says.




					www.nytimes.com
				



and beyond the paywall - 



March 16, 2022, 2:35 p.m. ET23 minutes ago
23 minutes ago
Steven Erlanger
NATO defense ministers vow to enhance deployments near Russia.​






Image




Several American military units have been deployed to Europe this year, as tensions between Ukraine and Russia escalated. Now NATO leaders are considering more long-term deployments to the alliance’s eastern flank.Credit...Dustin Chambers for The New York Times
BRUSSELS — NATO defense ministers on Wednesday directed military commanders to draw up detailed plans to reinforce deterrence in the alliance’s eastern flank in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Final decisions will be taken at a summit meeting in late June, according to the NATO secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg.

“On land, our new posture should include substantially more forces in the eastern part of the alliance, at higher readiness, with more prepositioned equipment and supplies,” he told a news conference after the meeting. Mr. Stoltenberg said there also must be enhanced air support, air defenses and naval presence to “reset deterrence.” 

He said the “total new security reality” effectively rendered irrelevant a 1997 agreement with Russia, known as the NATO-Russia Founding Act, not to put substantial NATO forces in countries once part of the Soviet bloc. 
“We will do what is necessary, and the NATO-Russia Founding Act is not something that will create problems or a hindrance for NATO to make the necessary decisions,” he said.
The alliance already has reinforced its presence in member states near Russia and Ukraine with an extra 50,000 troops in addition to national armies, NATO officials said. That makes a total of nearly 180,000 troops on the eastern flank. There are about 100,000 American troops in Europe alone, Mr. Stoltenberg said. There has also been enhanced air policing and more ships at sea.
Leaders are widely expected to make these deployments permanent at the June meeting despite the NATO-Russia Founding Act, which the alliance likely will not abandon but simply ignore. 
New deployments will require considerably more investment in military spending by member states, Mr. Stoltenberg noted, as well as more money for NATO’s own budget.
While some member states, like Poland and the Baltic nations, want to do more to help Ukraine defend itself, Mr. Stoltenberg insisted that the alliance was united in refusing to risk putting any NATO-country troops in Ukraine or trying to create a no-fly zone, which the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has been demanding.
But the defense ministers agreed to continue to support Ukraine with more military equipment, money and humanitarian aid, Mr. Stoltenberg said.
As for suggestions that Mr. Zelensky might be willing to abandon Ukraine’s desire to join NATO, Mr. Stoltenberg said that any such decision would be up to the democratically elected leaders of Ukraine.
Asked if Russia could win the war, Mr. Stoltenberg cautioned against speculation. He praised “the courage and capabilities” of the Ukrainian army and people, but said: “At the same time Russia remains a world military power. They have many different types of weapons, and therefore I think it’s too early to speculate about the outcome.”


----------



## MilEME09

Captive Ukrainian mayor freed


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504169216932524044


----------



## Czech_pivo

Did I miss the news reports on the first item highlight in blue:

"Canada now has 540 troops deployed in Latvia. They're leading a NATO battlegroup as part of a mission to deter further Russian aggression. Another 120 Canadian soldiers and an artillery battery are on their way to join them.

Two Canadian frigates have been attached to the NATO standing task forces *and the Canadian air force has contributed a flight of CF-18 jet fighters for air policing missions over eastern Europe."*

I thought the RCAF was shifting the 1 CP-140 from Iceland over to Eastern Europe.  Anyone else hear about us committing CF-18's?  If so, where, Romania again? 

Also, I'm sure that heat is slowly being raised under our feet to add more to Latvia -

_"NATO defence ministers have asked military commanders to *draw up plans for a significantly larger* long-term deployment of western forces in eastern Europe, the secretary general of the alliance said Wednesday."_



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/nato-ukraine-russia-stoltenberg-1.6386902


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> Captive Ukrainian mayor freed
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504169216932524044


Some conflicting information on whether the Ukrainians freed him or whether Russia released him:



			https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-03-16/russian-forces-have-released-mayor-of-the-city-of-melitopol-kyiv
		


I've read multiple reports and there seems to be some word twisting happening on Twitter.

My take is the Ukrainian negotiation team probably secured his release.


----------



## Skysix

So, averaging the 2 countries statements:

"The mayor of Mariopul was 'released' by Russian troops into the custody of Ukrainian SF who 'escorted' her safely back to UKR lines"

That a major firefight did not occur tends to support the negotiation theory.


----------



## McG

HumblePie said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504161422393200641


Okay.  So I guess that leaves Greece & Bulgaria still holding onto their S-300s.


----------



## MilEME09

McG said:


> Okay.  So I guess that leaves Greece & Bulgaria still holding onto their S-300s.


For now, hopefully it makes a difference but Ukraine needs to start retaking ground in big ways to win this war.


----------



## Good2Golf

Czech_pivo said:


> I guess our standards of what is acceptable and what is not acceptable are different and I have no issue with that.  But at first glance, without knowing the entire details (like the person involved is Ukrainian and their spouse/family/friends are fighting in Ukraine), I find it unacceptable and not taking the thoughts/feelings of others around them under consideration.


TBH, I thought it actually raised the level of discourse we normally see in the House of Commons… 🤷🏻‍♂️


----------



## Czech_pivo

Biden is directly calling Putin a War Criminal.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Czech_pivo said:


> Did I miss the news reports on the first item highlight in blue:
> 
> "Canada now has 540 troops deployed in Latvia. They're leading a NATO battlegroup as part of a mission to deter further Russian aggression. Another 120 Canadian soldiers and an artillery battery are on their way to join them.
> 
> Two Canadian frigates have been attached to the NATO standing task forces *and the Canadian air force has contributed a flight of CF-18 jet fighters for air policing missions over eastern Europe."*
> 
> I thought the RCAF was shifting the 1 CP-140 from Iceland over to Eastern Europe.  Anyone else hear about us committing CF-18's?  If so, where, Romania again?
> 
> Also, I'm sure that heat is slowly being raised under our feet to add more to Latvia -
> 
> _"NATO defence ministers have asked military commanders to *draw up plans for a significantly larger* long-term deployment of western forces in eastern Europe, the secretary general of the alliance said Wednesday."_
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/nato-ukraine-russia-stoltenberg-1.6386902



Perhaps...from what I can tell, it's just a normal roto for the CF18s;  they had a ATF in until Dec 2021 and are going back in Jul 2022 if the article below is accurate.









						Foreign Affairs minister: Canada to restart air policing mission in Romania this summer
					

Canada will resume the air policing activity in Romania in July, foreign affairs minister Bogdan Aurescu said at a press conference following his meeting with Canadian counterpart Melanie Joly in Bucharest. Six CF-18 aircraft will be involved, Aurescu explained, quoted by Agerpres. Until...




					www.romania-insider.com
				




There is also a LRP Air Task Force attached to Reassurance now, as well.


----------



## Navy_Pete

Czech_pivo said:


> Biden is directly calling Putin a War Criminal.


Lifehack: Don't invade another country without provocation and have your troops commit warcrimes on camera and no one will call you a war criminal.


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Some conflicting information on whether the Ukrainians freed him or whether Russia released him:
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-03-16/russian-forces-have-released-mayor-of-the-city-of-melitopol-kyiv
> 
> 
> 
> I've read multiple reports and there seems to be some word twisting happening on Twitter.
> 
> My take is the Ukrainian negotiation team probably secured his release.


I saw some JSOC teams 'negotiate' outside compounds too -- "come out or we will kill you all" is a negotiation, just saying...


----------



## KevinB

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/16/world/ukraine-russia-war/uns-highest-court-orders-russia-to-suspend-military-action-in-ukraine
		


Behind the paywall
Marlise Simons
U.N.’s highest court orders Russia to suspend military action in Ukraine.

The United Nations’ highest court on Wednesday ordered Russia to immediately cease military actions in Ukraine, a largely symbolic ruling that was nevertheless welcomed by the Ukrainian government. 

Ukraine had filed a case with the International Court of Justice, asking its judges to issue an injunction demanding that Russia end its violent incursion in the country.

In Wednesday’s 13-2 vote, the judges ordered Russia to “immediately suspend” military operations. The two opposing votes were cast by judges from Russia and China.
The ruling, while legally binding, is not expected to have an impact on the war. Moscow is not expected to comply and boycotted the court’s first hearing in the case.
Still, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, hailed the ruling.
“Ukraine gained a complete victory in its case against Russia at the International Court of Justice,” he wrote on Twitter.
The ruling comes as an isolated Russia has been increasingly shunning western institutions.
Russia gave formal notice on Tuesday that it would withdraw from the Council of Europe, which was established in 1949 as Europe’s main institution governing human rights.
Russia was suspended from the Council on Feb. 25, the day after it invaded Ukraine. Marija Pejcinovic Buric, the organization’s secretary general, said earlier this month that the war “goes against everything we stand for and is a violation of our statute and of the European Convention on Human Rights.”


----------



## KevinB

because why not make a larger conflict...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504196581741924352


----------



## GK .Dundas

Navy_Pete said:


> Lifehack: Don't invade another country without provocation and have your troops commit warcrimes on camera and no one will call you a war criminal.


.
Actually that's incredibly short sighted and rather ....Well dumb .
And pretty much what I expect from the current administration.
Always  stay above the fray and always let an opponent walk away with all the dignity he can muster  but that is all you let them walk away with. 
The thing is you may have to actually talk to Putin and or deal with him.
Other people can call him names . You a have an entire staff to do that for you.
You remain above it , you are the President of the freaking United States of freaking America. Gravitas.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504199975877632003

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503921570426798083


----------



## KevinB

GK .Dundas said:


> .
> Actually that's incredibly short sighted and rather ....Well dumb .
> And pretty much what I expect from the current administration.
> Always  stay above the fray and always let an opponent was away with all the dignity he can muster  but that is all you let them walk away with.
> The thing is you may have to actually talk to Putin and or deal with him.
> Other people can call him names . You a have an entire staff to do that for you.
> You remain above it , you are the President of the freaking United States of freaking America. Gravitas.


Actually it gives the REST of Russia an out...


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504118944478773250


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> because why not make a larger conflict...


If elements of the Belarusian armed forces have started a coup, old Vlad would have his hands full....


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504204242130776069


----------



## GK .Dundas

KevinB said:


> Actually it gives the REST of Russia an out...


Depends on who has possession of the.Russian equivalent of the "Football ".


----------



## KevinB

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/16/world/ukraine-russia-war/here-are-the-latest-developments-in-ukraine
		


Shashank Bengali
Here are the latest developments in Ukraine.​President Biden announced on Wednesday the United States would send an additional $800 million in security aid to help Ukraine fight Russia’s invasion, just hours after President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine made an impassioned appeal to Congress for help, casting the war as a battle for the cause of democracy.

As Mr. Zelensky delivered his virtual address to Congress, Ukrainian forces were counterattacking near the capital, Kyiv, and Russian troops continued to cut major cities off from escape routes or aid.

Earlier in the day, more than 10 people waiting in line for bread in the northern city of Chernihiv were killed by shelling in Chernihiv, and a Russian bombardment partly toppled a 12-story residential tower in Kyiv, sending dozens of residents fleeing the wreckage. To the south, in the coastal city of Mariupol, videos showed that a theater where hundreds of people had recently been sheltering had been largely destroyed.
Mr. Biden, responding to a question, said he believed that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia was “a war criminal.” But he stopped well short of agreeing to a more direct military intervention that Mr. Zelensky has repeatedly requested, including for the United States and NATO to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
The United States has provided at least 600 Stinger antiaircraft missiles and about 2,600 Javelin antitank missiles, in addition to small arms, according to a senior White House official. Ukraine says it needs more sophisticated antimissile systems to counter Russian air power.
Here are some of the day’s major developments:

In Mariupol, an assistant to the mayor, said that about 1,000 people had been inside the Drama Theater when it was hit by a Russian attack, and it was not immediately clear how many had survived. Russia’s Defense Ministry denied carrying out the attack. A satellite image taken days earlier showed that the Russian word for “children” had been written in large white letters in front of and behind the theater.
Mr. Biden detailed the additional $800 million in security assistance to Ukraine, saying Russia’s invasion had caused “appalling devastation.” Mr. Zelensky, invoking the attacks of Pearl Harbor and Sept. 11, addressed lawmakers on a large screen in a movie theater-style auditorium at the Capitol, and showed them graphic images of the war.
Among the major cities Russian forces continued to shell wasKharkiv, in Ukraine’s east. The city’s emergency services agency said at least 500 civilians have been killed in the shelling.
Russian officials said that their negotiations with Ukrainian delegates aimed at a cease-fire had shown “progress on a number of positions” and that there was “hope that a certain compromise can be reached.” In Moscow, President Vladimir V. Putin delivered a far more hard-line message, denigrating pro-Western Russians as “scum and traitors,” and claiming that Western nations were trying to “cancel Russia.”
The mayor of Melitopol, who was dragged from his office with bag over his head last week by Russian troops, has been freed and is safe, according to a Ukrainian official, after days without word of his condition. The government in Kyiv had decried his detention as a kidnapping.
NATO defense ministers directed military commanders to draw up detailed plans to reinforce deterrence in the alliance’s eastern flank. The alliance’s secretary general said, “our new posture should include substantially more forces in the eastern part of the alliance, at higher readiness.”


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504204242130776069


How do we interpret that? 

Is this a revolution???


----------



## SupersonicMax

Czech_pivo said:


> I guess our standards of what is acceptable and what is not acceptable are different and I have no issue with that.  But at first glance, without knowing the entire details (like the person involved is Ukrainian and their spouse/family/friends are fighting in Ukraine), I find it unacceptable and not taking the thoughts/feelings of others around them under consideration.


I see it differently.  It allowed someone that may not have been able to attend otherwise, to attend.


----------



## KevinB

TacticalTea said:


> How do we interpret that?
> 
> Is this a revolution???


Wait and see - I suspect that some in Belarus didn't want to be the target for a Russian False Flag - but that's just my speculation...


----------



## WLSC

Exactly what I was thinking.


----------



## RangerRay

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504118944478773250


That guy looks like Baghdad Bob!


----------



## RangerRay

TacticalTea said:


> How do we interpret that?
> 
> Is this a revolution???


My first thought was false flag…who knows? 🤷‍♂️


----------



## Remius

TacticalTea said:


> How do we interpret that?
> 
> Is this a revolution???


Apparently Belarus military exercises.


----------



## KevinB

Well that didn't take long








						Poland Seeks NATO Force In Ukraine On "Peacekeeping Mission"
					

Poland on Tuesday called for a NATO peace mission "protected by armed forces" to help Ukraine.




					www.ndtv.com


----------



## Remius

KevinB said:


> Well that didn't take long
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Poland Seeks NATO Force In Ukraine On "Peacekeeping Mission"
> 
> 
> Poland on Tuesday called for a NATO peace mission "protected by armed forces" to help Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ndtv.com


Better be robust.


----------



## McG

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504204242130776069





KevinB said:


> because why not make a larger conflict...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504196581741924352


One hopes this is the start of the freedom revolution in Belarus and not a massive false flag in front of the eyes of the world. If this is a coup, then I expect Russian units are already being targeted in their “safe space.”


----------



## KevinB

Remius said:


> Better be robust.


You noted the 100k troops the US has now in Poland?
  Plus Brit 3rd Armored Div, plus the Polish, German, etc...


----------



## Remius

KevinB said:


> You noted the 100k troops the US has now in Poland?
> Plus Brit 3rd Armored Div, plus the Polish, German, etc...


That’s assuming they all buy in. Last thing we need is a token force vulnerable to being hit or held hostage by Russia.


----------



## KevinB

Remius said:


> That’s assuming they all buy in. Last thing we need is a token force vulnerable to being hit or held hostage by Russia.


Yes the Russians that are so effective crushing the Ukrainians?
   Right now even 5k extra troops in Ukraine would be a massive boost.

But keep in mind that would mean NATO AC over the UKR - and potentially AH-64's rousting Russian formations etc...

The Brit's have been hawkish about this from the outset.
  Poland knows that if Putin succeeds in the Ukraine he's not going to stop (other than to rebuild) and move on to another - and not let minor aspects like NATO membership stop him.
  Germany did a 180 and is now posting "NEVER AGAIN" in support of the Ukraine.


----------



## Remius

KevinB said:


> Yes the Russians that are so effective crushing the Ukrainians?
> Right now 5k extra troops in Ukraine would be a massive boost.


I’m not disagreeing with you.  I’m just saying it needs to be more than some token effort if they do so. And well defended.


----------



## KevinB

Remius said:


> I’m not disagreeing with you.  I’m just saying it needs to be more than some token effort if they do so. And well defended.


Ack - President Biden has reconfirmed his earlier statement that any NATO force entering UKR to assist against Russia will be defended to the fullest by US Military forces, and viewed as an immediate Article 5 by US Forces if those NATO forces are attacked by Russia regardless if they are in their home territory or the Ukraine.
  Pretty much just hit the green right for any country that wants to kick Vlad in the balls.


----------



## Remius

KevinB said:


> Ack - President Biden has reconfirmed his earlier statement that any NATO force entering UKR to assist against Russia will be defended to the fullest by US Military forces, and viewed as an immediate Article 5 by US Forces if those NATO forces are attacked by Russia regardless if they are in their home territory or the Ukraine.
> Pretty much just hit the green right for any country that wants to kick Vlad in the balls.


That’s the message that needs to be communicated.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504143138084040708Can't let the Turkish drones have all the fun...
  *a cynical person may wonder who is going to operate those drones.


----------



## MilEME09

Well now


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504016171619819520


----------



## KevinB

China just praised Ukraine's Strength and Unity -- whoops, didn't see that one coming did you Vlad...


----------



## Dana381

How Custom Molotov Cocktail and Zelenskyy Legos Raised $16K for Ukraine Relief
					

Citizen Brick announced that it had raised over $16,000 in just over 24 hours.




					www.military.com
				




Get your Lego Zelenskyy and help support Ukraine. I went to the site and couldn't find the molotov cocktails


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/16/world/ukraine-russia-war/uns-highest-court-orders-russia-to-suspend-military-action-in-ukraine
> 
> 
> 
> Behind the paywall
> Marlise Simons
> U.N.’s highest court orders Russia to suspend military action in Ukraine.
> 
> The United Nations’ highest court on Wednesday ordered Russia to immediately cease military actions in Ukraine, a largely symbolic ruling that was nevertheless welcomed by the Ukrainian government.
> 
> Ukraine had filed a case with the International Court of Justice, asking its judges to issue an injunction demanding that Russia end its violent incursion in the country.
> 
> In Wednesday’s 13-2 vote, the judges ordered Russia to “immediately suspend” military operations. The two opposing votes were cast by judges from Russia and China.
> The ruling, while legally binding, is not expected to have an impact on the war. Moscow is not expected to comply and boycotted the court’s first hearing in the case.
> Still, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, hailed the ruling.
> “Ukraine gained a complete victory in its case against Russia at the International Court of Justice,” he wrote on Twitter.
> The ruling comes as an isolated Russia has been increasingly shunning western institutions.
> Russia gave formal notice on Tuesday that it would withdraw from the Council of Europe, which was established in 1949 as Europe’s main institution governing human rights.
> Russia was suspended from the Council on Feb. 25, the day after it invaded Ukraine. Marija Pejcinovic Buric, the organization’s secretary general, said earlier this month that the war “goes against everything we stand for and is a violation of our statute and of the European Convention on Human Rights.”



So China is still trying to find its way…Vlad not bad…



KevinB said:


> China just praised Ukraine's Strength and Unity -- whoops, didn't see that one coming did you Vlad...



You can do it, Ukraine!

The position of mediator is starting to fade from China’s aspirations…


----------



## KevinB

Good2Golf said:


> So China is still trying to find its way…Vlad not bad…
> 
> 
> 
> You can do it, Ukraine!
> 
> The position of mediator is starting to fade from China’s aspirations…


I suspect the prospect of not getting shellacked with sanctions - and the opportunity to sell a lot of stuff to folks rebuilding (albeit probably not Military Equipment) is appealing more than anything Vlad can offer at this point.


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> I suspect the prospect of not getting shellacked with sanctions - and the opportunity to sell a lot of stuff to folks rebuilding (albeit probably not Military Equipment) is appealing more than anything Vlad can offer at this point.


Although they are formally on record as voting against the ICJ Court Order directing Vlad to stop.


----------



## Remius

Russia's state TV hit by stream of resignations
					

Marina Ovsyannikova's protest highlighted a growing number of journalists leaving their jobs at Kremlin-run TV channels.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## KevinB

Good2Golf said:


> Although they are formally on record as voting against the ICJ Court Order directing Vlad to stop.


I think China enjoys being cautious - and quietly supporting both sides.
   China could afford to vote against the ICJ as it was a done deal (look Vlad we tried) , they didn't vote against the UNGA Resolution


----------



## Remius

KevinB said:


> I think China enjoys being cautious - and quietly supporting both sides.
> China could afford to vote against the ICJ as it was a done deal (look Vlad we tried) , they didn't vote against the UNGA Resolution


China will do what’s best for China.


----------



## KevinB

Remius said:


> China will do what’s best for China.


More importantly China will do what is best for the long term of China.


----------



## Czech_pivo

SupersonicMax said:


> I see it differently.  It allowed someone that may not have been able to attend otherwise, to attend.


That’s a good point.


----------



## Quirky

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504143138084040708Can't let the Turkish drones have all the fun...
> *a cynical person may wonder who is going to operate those drones.


A flight suit sitting in a sea container somewhere in Arizona? Russia can’t trace where the link is coming from anyway.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Ack - President Biden has reconfirmed his earlier statement that any NATO force entering UKR to assist against Russia will be defended to the fullest by US Military forces, and viewed as an immediate Article 5 by US Forces if those NATO forces are attacked by Russia regardless if they are in their home territory or the Ukraine.
> Pretty much just hit the green right for any country that wants to kick Vlad in the balls.


The Poles would love to avenge Katyn.


----------



## Skysix

Remius said:


> Better be robust.


Make it a UN mission with NATO command and troops from non NATO countries as well. Just make sure the UN does not have any operational control.


----------



## TacticalTea

Good2Golf said:


> Although they are formally on record as voting against the ICJ Court Order directing Vlad to stop.


That's substantially different from a political vote.

Remember this is the International COURT of justice. 

Not voting guilty //= exoneration.


----------



## MilEME09

Anyone else feel like something might be a foot with NATO? they are increasing forces on their eastern flank, and the Americans are not letting reporters into where their troops are going.


----------



## Remius

MilEME09 said:


> Anyone else feel like something might be a foot with NATO? they are increasing forces on their eastern flank, and the Americans are not letting reporters into where their troops are going.


Something is definitely up.


----------



## MilEME09

Interesting spot, plane carrying Russian FM suddenly turns around mid flight to go back to Moscow, combine this with the odd reports coming out of Belarus, something might be happening.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504231721763495941


----------



## Eye In The Sky

MilEME09 said:


> Anyone else feel like something might be a foot with NATO? they are increasing forces on their eastern flank, and the Americans are not letting reporters into where their troops are going.



- NATO has been increasing troops on the eastern flanks

- Poland has asked for a “Peacekeeping Armed Force”.

- the US has said any attacks on any NATO forces inside or outside Ukraine will trip Art 5

- US has stated entire US arsenal will be brought to bear on attackers.  100k + US Forces in Europe again.  

I guess the question is how much do people believe in coincidences?  😁


----------



## Eye In The Sky

KevinB said:


> More importantly China will do what is best for the long term of China.



I’ve always thought China’s game is “the long game”.  They grow, insidiously to most people, in power;  Economically, militarily.


----------



## HumblePie

Pavel Latushko former Minister of Culture of the Republic of Belarus (Exiled to Poland after 2020 elections)


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Eye In The Sky said:


> - NATO has been increasing troops on the eastern flanks
> 
> - Poland has asked for a “Peacekeeping Armed Force”.
> 
> - the US has said any attacks on any NATO forces inside or outside Ukraine will trip Art 5
> 
> - US has stated entire US arsenal will be brought to bear on attackers.  100k + US Forces in Europe again.
> 
> I guess the question is how much do people believe in coincidences?  😁


They move blocking force in to Eastern Ukraine to protect it?

Maybe but I can't see it as there is no advantage to doing it.

Better to keep a large force on the borders of Belarus and Kaliningrad that can threaten Russia elsewhere.  This forces Russia to keep Forces at home and away from Ukraine out of sheer paranoia (the old fear of being caught napping) which means they can't reinforce in Ukraine.

Simultaneously we continue to pump weapons in to Ukraine and undermine Russian efforts there.

Sun Tzu: "The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting"


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Humphrey Bogart said:


> They move blocking force in to Eastern Ukraine to protect it?
> 
> Maybe but I can't see it as there is no advantage to doing it.
> 
> Better to keep a large force on the borders of Belarus and Kaliningrad that can threaten Russia elsewhere.  This forces Russia to keep Forces at home and away from Ukraine out of sheer paranoia (the old fear of being caught napping) which means they can't reinforce in Ukraine.
> 
> Simultaneously we continue to pump weapons in to Ukraine and undermine Russian efforts there.
> 
> Sun Tzu: "The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting"



I was referring to the article KevinB posted a page or 2 back re: the “NATO peacekeeping forces in Ukraine”.









						Ukraine - Superthread
					






					army.ca
				




I’m sure the Chestmasters are looking for ways to do both concurrently, while not triggering all out war…


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> They move blocking force in to Eastern Ukraine to protect it?
> 
> Maybe but I can't see it as there is no advantage to doing it.
> 
> Better to keep a large force on the borders of Belarus and Kaliningrad that can threaten Russia elsewhere.  This forces Russia to keep Forces at home and away from Ukraine out of sheer paranoia (the old fear of being caught napping) which means they can't reinforce in Ukraine.
> 
> Simultaneously we continue to pump weapons in to Ukraine and undermine Russian efforts there.
> 
> Sun Tzu: "The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting"


Russia is stripping the cupboard bare, video has shown all their forces pulling out of Georgia's occupied territory, perhaps we can convince them to go get it back while vlad isn't watching


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> Russia is stripping the cupboard bare, video has shown all their forces pulling out of Georgia's occupied territory, perhaps we can convince them to go get it back while vlad isn't watching


This seems like a good plan 😎


----------



## Weinie

KevinB said:


> Yes the Russians that are so effective crushing the Ukrainians?
> Right now even 5k extra troops in Ukraine would be a massive boost.
> 
> But keep in mind that would mean NATO AC over the UKR - and potentially AH-64's rousting Russian formations etc...
> 
> The Brit's have been hawkish about this from the outset.
> Poland knows that if Putin succeeds in the Ukraine he's not going to stop (other than to rebuild) and move on to another - and not let minor aspects like NATO membership stop him.
> Germany did a 180 and is now posting "NEVER AGAIN" in support of the Ukraine.


I get it that we  (the West/NATO) would kick Russian ass fairly quickly............... until the nukes start flying. Then numbers/technology/aims/intent do not matter. I have yet to see a compelling argument that would convince me that anyone would come out of that scenario as a victor, or somehow ahead.


----------



## KevinB

Weinie said:


> I get it that we  (the West/NATO) would kick Russian ass fairly quickly............... until the nukes start flying. Then numbers/technology/aims/intent do not matter. I have yet to see a compelling argument that would convince me that anyone would come out of that scenario as a victor, or somehow ahead.


I will take a tie 

You can't simply resign yourself to letting Putin do whatever the fuck he wants because he has NuClEaR WePUNZ.
   There is a difference between telling Russian we are going to move into the Ukraine in 48hrs and support the Ukraine, have 48hr to pack up your troops  - and telling V Corps and the other NATO Armored Forces "last one to Moscow is a Dirty Rotten Egg..."


----------



## Weinie

KevinB said:


> I will take a tie


If tie means stalemate for Russia in Ukraine, and then they retreat with their tail between their legs, I will take it also. I don't see any way that we can describe any other potential end result as a tie.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Weinie said:


> I get it that we  (the West/NATO) would kick Russian ass fairly quickly............... until the nukes start flying. Then numbers/technology/aims/intent do not matter. I have yet to see a compelling argument that would convince me that anyone would come out of that scenario as a victor, or somehow ahead.


This is why I am vehemently against a lot of the jingoism being thrown about by people re: Ukraine/Russia.

It's like people who golf but only concern themselves with driving and fairway play.  "My god I must have cranked that ball 300 yds!" .... "yes you did but you also bungled your chip and then 3 putted the hole so I actually beat you by a stroke".  

You can't ignore other factors just because they may be inconvenient to you.

The best way for the Russian problem to end is for Moderates to overthrow Putin or for him to simply pass away in his sleep.  That requires chipping away at the periphery, not direct engagement.


----------



## KevinB

Weinie said:


> If tie means stalemate for Russia in Ukraine, and then they retreat with their tail between their legs, I will take it also. I don't see any way that we can describe any other potential end result as a tie.


MAD  - it is a tie after all, regardless if it actually both counting a loss.

I edited my comment after you quoted to be a little clearer.
   Vlad can't simply push the button by himself - there are cogs in the wheel, and we just need to ensure that they have enough incentives not to want to push the button - or allow anyone to try to carry it out.


----------



## Furniture

Humphrey Bogart said:


> This is why I am vehemently against a lot of the jingoism being thrown about by people re: Ukraine/Russia.
> 
> It's like people who golf but only concern themselves with driving and fairway play.  "My god I must have cranked that ball 300 yds!" .... "yes you did but you also bungled your chip and then 3 putted the hole so I actually beat you by a stroke".
> 
> *You can't ignore other factors just because they may be inconvenient to you.*
> 
> The best way for the Russian problem to end is for Moderates to overthrow Putin or for him to simply pass away in his sleep.  That requires chipping away at the periphery, not direct engagement.


Like ignoring that if Russia isn't stopped, Putin or his successor(who could be as bad or worse) will be emboldened to attack somewhere like Finland, or maybe a "minor" NATO state like Latvia?

If Russia, Pakistan, Iran, China, or North Korea learn that the West will back down at the hint of nuclear weapons, we invite even greater suffering on the world.


----------



## OldTanker

Even while we don't know the outcome of the current war in Ukraine, what comes next? Are the big boys wargaming the collapse of Russia? Who gets the 6000 nukes? Will Putin 2.0 be worse? How long will sanctions last? Or will we prove Putin right that the West wants to destroy Russia. Do we? Be careful what you wish for, it might come true.


----------



## PuckChaser

Humphrey Bogart said:


> "yes you did but you also bungled your chip and then 3 putted the hole so I actually beat you by a stroke".


----------



## KevinB

OldTanker said:


> Even while we don't know the outcome of the current war in Ukraine, what comes next? Are the big boys wargaming the collapse of Russia? Who gets the 6000 nukes? Will Putin 2.0 be worse? How long will sanctions last? Or will we prove Putin right that the West wants to destroy Russia. Do we? Be careful what you wish for, it might come true.


It isn't 6,000 nukes.
  The RF has under 6k warheads - and even of that under 6 number over 1600 of those are dismantled due to age.
  Of that under 3,400 number less are in a ready state.
  Of that number in "ready state" even less are actually able to be used.

 I don't want any nuclear weapons to be used, but I'd also not sell my soul down the river just to appease a criminal with a nuclear weapon.

There are many things that can be be done that would help stabilize the situation after Putin.

I'd say a Marshall Plan 2.0 is needed for the Eastern European Countries - including Russia 



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504084083428798469


----------



## Weinie

Humphrey Bogart said:


> This is why I am vehemently against a lot of the jingoism being thrown about by people re: Ukraine/Russia.
> 
> It's like people who golf but only concern themselves with driving and fairway play.  "My god I must have cranked that ball 300 yds!" .... "yes you did but you also bungled your chip and then 3 putted the hole so I actually beat you by a stroke".
> 
> You can't ignore other factors just because they may be inconvenient to you.
> 
> The best way for the Russian problem to end is for Moderates to overthrow Putin or for him to simply pass away in his sleep.  That requires chipping away at the periphery, not direct engagement.



*"Like ignoring that if Russia isn't stopped, Putin or his successor(who could be as bad or worse) will be emboldened to attack somewhere like Finland, or maybe a "minor" NATO state like Latvia?
*
_*If Russia, Pakistan, Iran, China, or North Korea learn that the West will back down at the hint of nuclear weapons, we invite even greater suffering on the world."*_



We are less than a month into this. The Russian military has been roughed up to the point that they will be licking their wounds for at least a year, regardless of how the war in Ukraine goes.  They would need 3-5 years to reconstitute, and that was before sanctions. They will be no match for anyone for a considerable time, from a conventional standpoint. The global community has imposed sanctions up the yingyang, which will have devastating impacts in Russia. This expectation that we need/deserve instant results and gratification is first, sanctimonious, and secondly, naive. 

The best introspection is coming from China. They are very, very carefully considering their next moves. We should be too. Patience is a virtue. Strategic patience is a game changer.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504240884858109954


----------



## Prairie canuck

Putin's grip on everything is eroding. I know it's an impossible ask but Ukraine needs to keep doing what they're doing and NATO needs to up the lethal aid. Russians will take care of Putin and the St Petersburg Mafia.


----------



## lenaitch

Quirky said:


> Commenter from a twatter.
> 
> Stephanie George @mytimeatlast....
> Profile:
> "Mom/wife, feminist, Indigenous Midwife, IBCLC, Oneida/biracial, Instructor McMaster, #SickNotWeak ambassador. My anagram is Thespian"
> 
> *Who are these people.*


The present - grooming the future, sadly.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Motivating words from our Minister of Foreign Affairs



			
				Melanie Joly said:
			
		

> Canada is not a nuclear power, it is not a military power,” she told CTV Power Play host Evan Solomon. “We’re a middle-sized power and* what we’re good at is convening *and making sure that diplomacy is happening, and *meanwhile convincing other countries to do more.*


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> They move blocking force in to Eastern Ukraine to protect it?
> 
> Maybe but I can't see it as there is no advantage to doing it.
> 
> Better to keep a large force on the borders of Belarus and Kaliningrad that can threaten Russia elsewhere.  This forces Russia to keep Forces at home and away from Ukraine out of sheer paranoia (the old fear of being caught napping) which means they can't reinforce in Ukraine.
> 
> Simultaneously we continue to pump weapons in to Ukraine and undermine Russian efforts there.
> 
> Sun Tzu: "The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting"



Does anyone believe they have any reinforcements available?  When they're shipping naval infantry from the Pacific, stripping garrisons from Abroad and hiring mercenaries from Syria and reconstituting BTGs from the remnants of the last 3 weeks of fighting under green officers, I don't think there is much help coming.

The citizens of Kaliningrad and St Petersburg walk over the border?


----------



## RangerRay

Jarnhamar said:


> Motivating words from our Minister of Foreign Affairs


FFS 🤦‍♂️


----------



## PuckChaser

Jarnhamar said:


> Motivating words from our Minister of Foreign Affairs


Also the Liberals: Why is the CAF morale so low and having huge recruiting/retention problems?


----------



## Czech_pivo

Just finished watching The Courier, a good movie I thought. I remember reading Peter Wright’s account of Penkovsky many many years ago. Wright was a rabid anti-Communist and had nothing good to say about the Brits, his own people, handling of covert affairs for decades. 
Have to wonder if there is a Penkovsky out there right now on the Russian side, helping to end this madness. 

I’m not certain if anyone else is feeling this, but each day I feel we are slow walking towards an abyss.


----------



## suffolkowner

PuckChaser said:


> Also the Liberals: Why is the CAF morale so low and having huge recruiting/retention problems?


Also the Liberals: why does nobody care what we say?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> .... The best way for the Russian problem to end is for Moderates to overthrow Putin or for him to simply pass away in his sleep.  That requires chipping away at the periphery, not direct engagement.


That WOULD be the best option, indeed, but ... #DareToDream 


Jarnhamar said:


> Motivating words from our Minister of Foreign Affairs


Hey, hey, hey, c'mon now - the defence minister says she's *really *thinking hard about maybe coming up with hard-hitting ideas* ...*








						Canada's defense minister to set 'aggressive' defense spending options
					

Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand said on Wednesday she would lay out "aggressive options" for defense spending amid the Ukraine crisis.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## HumblePie

Czech_pivo said:


> Just finished watching The Courier, a good movie I thought. I remember reading Peter Wright’s account of Penkovsky many many years ago. Wright was a rabid anti-Communist and had nothing good to say about the Brits, his own people, handling of covert affairs for decades.
> Have to wonder if there is a Penkovsky out there right now on the Russian side, helping to end this madness.
> 
> I’m not certain if anyone else is feeling this, but each day I feel we are slow walking towards an abyss.



Reminded me of this closing scene.


----------



## Remius

Joly's comments — ‘What we're good at is convening' — sell Canadian military short, generals say
					

'No matter how much this government would like to see Canada's military as a body of peacekeepers, the fact is Canadians have frequently been deployed into…




					nationalpost.com
				




As much as some people may be offended she isn’t really that far off with her statement.


----------



## ModlrMike

Czech_pivo said:


> Just finished watching The Courier, a good movie I thought. I remember reading Peter Wright’s account of Penkovsky many many years ago. Wright was a rabid anti-Communist and had nothing good to say about the Brits, his own people, handling of covert affairs for decades.
> Have to wonder if there is a Penkovsky out there right now on the Russian side, helping to end this madness.
> 
> I’m not certain if anyone else is feeling this, but each day I feel we are slow walking towards an abyss.


I thought it was quite a good and entertaining film.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Furniture said:


> Like ignoring that if Russia isn't stopped, Putin or his successor(who could be as bad or worse) will be emboldened to attack somewhere like Finland, or maybe a "minor" NATO state like Latvia?
> 
> If Russia, Pakistan, Iran, China, or North Korea learn that the West will back down at the hint of nuclear weapons, we invite even greater suffering on the world.


Stopped from what exactly?  I get it that your being deliberately vague but Russia/Ukraine has been a friction point for 10+ years now.  The Americans openly interfered in Ukraine before Euromaidan, do some research and read about it:



			https://www.cato.org/commentary/americas-ukraine-hypocrisy
		


This is just the continuation of a long simmering conflict that really began politically in 2010:









						2010 Ukrainian presidential election - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org
				




Escalated in 2014:









						2014 pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org
				




And then went full kinetic in 2014 as well:









						War in Donbas (2014–2022) - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org
				




The latest iteration is just an expansion of a war that has been going on for 8 years already.  Where were you these past 8 years?

We are not totally innocent in this.  Russia is not innocent in this. The only ones that really are is the Ukrainians who are caught in the middle.

Everything else you've said is imagined, unlike Ukraine, there is no actual conflict in those areas. Russia has no reason to invade Finland, it has plenty of reasons to invade Ukraine.   

The West  Everyone will back down from Nuclear Weapons, that's been the case since 1945 and that's why any State that feels threatened by anyone else wants them.  

They are the ultimate guarantor of security.  Who wins and who loses is a moot point when we are all dead from nuclear holocaust.


----------



## Jarnhamar

The Bread Guy said:


> That WOULD be the best option, indeed, but ... #DareToDream
> 
> Hey, hey, hey, c'mon now - the defence minister says she's *really *thinking hard about maybe coming up with hard-hitting ideas* ...*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada's defense minister to set 'aggressive' defense spending options
> 
> 
> Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand said on Wednesday she would lay out "aggressive options" for defense spending amid the Ukraine crisis.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com



Ha



> In 2021, Canada’s defense spending was an estimated 1.4% of GDP, according to NATO. Anand said she would establish options that would mean defense spending exceeding, hitting or falling short of NATO’s target of 2% of gross domestic product (GDP).



Instead of pageantry how about just options on how we reach our NATO obligations like we said we would.


----------



## TheProfessional

KevinB said:


> https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/16/world/ukraine-russia-war/uns-highest-court-orders-russia-to-suspend-military-action-in-ukraine
> 
> 
> 
> Behind the paywall
> Marlise Simons
> U.N.’s highest court orders Russia to suspend military action in Ukraine.
> 
> The United Nations’ highest court on Wednesday ordered Russia to immediately cease military actions in Ukraine, a largely symbolic ruling that was nevertheless welcomed by the Ukrainian government.
> 
> Ukraine had filed a case with the International Court of Justice, asking its judges to issue an injunction demanding that Russia end its violent incursion in the country.
> 
> In Wednesday’s 13-2 vote, the judges ordered Russia to “immediately suspend” military operations. The two opposing votes were cast by judges from Russia and China.
> The ruling, while legally binding, is not expected to have an impact on the war. Moscow is not expected to comply and boycotted the court’s first hearing in the case.
> Still, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, hailed the ruling.
> “Ukraine gained a complete victory in its case against Russia at the International Court of Justice,” he wrote on Twitter.
> The ruling comes as an isolated Russia has been increasingly shunning western institutions.
> Russia gave formal notice on Tuesday that it would withdraw from the Council of Europe, which was established in 1949 as Europe’s main institution governing human rights.
> Russia was suspended from the Council on Feb. 25, the day after it invaded Ukraine. Marija Pejcinovic Buric, the organization’s secretary general, said earlier this month that the war “goes against everything we stand for and is a violation of our statute and of the European Convention on Human Rights.”


 Yeah that'll show the Russians...who are on the security council and can veto anything they don't like. 🤦‍♂️ Can the UN be dissolved already? What a bloody useless organization.


----------



## FJAG

Czech_pivo said:


> I’m not certain if anyone else is feeling this, but each day I feel we are slow walking towards an abyss.


Welcome to my teenage years in the '60s.

When's the last time you heard a Conelrad Alert test on your TV or radio? My generation heard tons of them.

🍻


----------



## HiTechComms

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Stopped from what exactly?  I get it that your being deliberately vague but Russia/Ukraine has been a friction point for 10+ years now.  The Americans openly interfered in Ukraine before Euromaidan, do some research and read about it:
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cato.org/commentary/americas-ukraine-hypocrisy
> 
> 
> 
> This is just the continuation of a long simmering conflict that really began politically in 2010:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 2010 Ukrainian presidential election - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.m.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Escalated in 2014:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 2014 pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.m.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And then went full kinetic in 2014 as well:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> War in Donbas (2014–2022) - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.m.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The latest iteration is just an expansion of a war that has been going on for 8 years already.  Where were you these past 8 years?
> 
> We are not totally innocent in this.  Russia is not innocent in this. The only ones that really are is the Ukrainians who are caught in the middle.
> 
> Everything else you've said is imagined, unlike Ukraine, there is no actual conflict in those areas. Russia has no reason to invade Finland, it has plenty of reasons to invade Ukraine.
> 
> The West  Everyone will back down from Nuclear Weapons, that's been the case since 1945 and that's why any State that feels threatened by anyone else wants them.
> 
> They are the ultimate guarantor of security.  Who wins and who loses is a moot point when we are all dead from nuclear holocaust.


More or less started in 1998.  Russia subverted Ukraine a long time ago using their techniques that came out of USSR in the 1960s. Ukraine is not mono ethnic country, like Poland.  I guess when Polish-Russo war the Polish government opted against generals to keep conquered areas in order for the country to stay ethnically monolithic. Hard to subvert a country where everyone has unity, humans are very Tribalistic. Yuri Bezmenov discussed this in detail.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> They move blocking force in to Eastern Ukraine to protect it?
> 
> Maybe but I can't see it as there is no advantage to doing it.
> 
> Better to keep a large force on the borders of Belarus and Kaliningrad that can threaten Russia elsewhere.  This forces Russia to keep Forces at home and away from Ukraine out of sheer paranoia (the old fear of being caught napping) which means they can't reinforce in Ukraine.
> 
> Simultaneously we continue to pump weapons in to Ukraine and undermine Russian efforts there.
> 
> Sun Tzu: "The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting"


What will be a key item to watch is if the Poles allow significant numbers of German troops on Polish soil. NATO member or not, there are psychological factors at play with the Poles regarding allowing that to happen. 
NATO moving into Ukraine will require this to happen. If you see German troops moving into Poland, NATO goes into Ukraine.


----------



## Czech_pivo

FJAG said:


> Welcome to my teenage years in the '60s.
> 
> When's the last time you heard a Conelrad Alert test on your TV or radio? My generation heard tons of them.
> 
> 🍻


Growing up in Windsor, across from Detroit, (where my Mothers entire family was), it was a routine occurrence in the time before cable/satellite tv. We had 1 single CDN tv station and like 10 from Detroit/Toledo.


----------



## Furniture

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Stopped from what exactly?  I get it that your being deliberately vague but Russia/Ukraine has been a friction point for 10+ years now.  The Americans openly interfered in Ukraine before Euromaidan, do some research and read about it:
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cato.org/commentary/americas-ukraine-hypocrisy
> 
> 
> 
> This is just the continuation of a long simmering conflict that really began politically in 2010:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 2010 Ukrainian presidential election - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.m.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Escalated in 2014:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 2014 pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.m.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And then went full kinetic in 2014 as well:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> War in Donbas (2014–2022) - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.m.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The latest iteration is just an expansion of a war that has been going on for 8 years already.  Where were you these past 8 years?
> 
> We are not totally innocent in this.  Russia is not innocent in this. The only ones that really are is the Ukrainians who are caught in the middle.
> 
> Everything else you've said is imagined, unlike Ukraine, there is no actual conflict in those areas. Russia has no reason to invade Finland, it has plenty of reasons to invade Ukraine.
> 
> The West  Everyone will back down from Nuclear Weapons, that's been the case since 1945 and that's why any State that feels threatened by anyone else wants them.
> 
> They are the ultimate guarantor of security.  Who wins and who loses is a moot point when we are all dead from nuclear holocaust.


China doesn't have any territorial expansion ideas it openly talks about. Iran hasn't been destabilizing an entire region of the globe for decades. Pakistan hasn't be agitating in it's sphere for decades either... North Korea has been entirely peaceful since it's inception. No conflict to be seen around those nuclear powers. 

You're right though, we should allow Russia to massacre people because the USA West encouraged protestors in Ukraine. Protests that lead to massive government overreach, and shooting protestors. That's exactly like invading, and killing civilians. The West is just like Russia, thank you for correcting the error of my ways. 

In the past 8 years I was deployed to Europe because of the Russian annexation of the Crimea. I was in the Med when Turkey shot down the Russian aircraft, and sailed up the Bosphorus with a Russian navy tanker tailing SNMG1 all the way to Istanbul. We worried about what might happen next, as we sailed in the same sea as a Russian TG, after a NATO member shot down a Russian aircraft. 



HiTechComms said:


> More or less started in 1998.  Russia subverted Ukraine a long time ago using their techniques that came out of USSR in the 1960s. Ukraine is not mono ethnic country, like Poland.  I guess when Polish-Russo war the Polish government opted against generals to keep conquered areas in order for the country to stay ethnically monolithic. Hard to subvert a country where everyone has unity, humans are very Tribalistic. Yuri Bezmenov discussed this in detail.


Canada isn't mono-ethnic... What is your point? 

You're wandering into dangerous territory.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Jarnhamar said:


> Motivating words from our Minister of Foreign Affairs


What does any of that even mean. What are we, the Hostess?



Humphrey Bogart said:


> Stopped from what exactly?  I get it that your being deliberately vague but Russia/Ukraine has been a friction point for 10+ years now.  The Americans openly interfered in Ukraine before Euromaidan, do some research and read about it:
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cato.org/commentary/americas-ukraine-hypocrisy
> 
> 
> 
> This is just the continuation of a long simmering conflict that really began politically in 2010:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 2010 Ukrainian presidential election - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.m.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Escalated in 2014:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 2014 pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.m.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And then went full kinetic in 2014 as well:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> War in Donbas (2014–2022) - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.m.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The latest iteration is just an expansion of a war that has been going on for 8 years already.  Where were you these past 8 years?
> 
> We are not totally innocent in this.  Russia is not innocent in this. The only ones that really are is the Ukrainians who are caught in the middle.
> 
> Everything else you've said is imagined, unlike Ukraine, there is no actual conflict in those areas. Russia has no reason to invade Finland, it has plenty of reasons to invade Ukraine.
> 
> The West  Everyone will back down from Nuclear Weapons, that's been the case since 1945 and that's why any State that feels threatened by anyone else wants them.
> 
> They are the ultimate guarantor of security.  Who wins and who loses is a moot point when we are all dead from nuclear holocaust.


I would suggest that, in its most recent form, it goes back to 1991 and our current Finance Minister was an active part in it. I would also suggest that she knows (and her former handlers….?), a lot more of the story than we will ever know.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

KevinB said:


> MAD  - it is a tie after all, regardless if it actually both counting a loss.
> 
> I edited my comment after you quoted to be a little clearer.
> Vlad can't simply push the button by himself - there are cogs in the wheel, and we just need to ensure that they have enough incentives not to want to push the button - or allow anyone to try to carry it out.



Show of force vs Use of force.


KevinB said:


> It isn't 6,000 nukes.
> The RF has under 6k warheads - and even of that under 6 number over 1600 of those are dismantled due to age.
> Of that under 3,400 number less are in a ready state.



Arguably, the RFN ICBMs might be their “tip of the spear” ones, but those are effectively countered by western SSNs and other systems (IMO).  I have 100% confidence in the wests ability to keep tabs on those units.  Not sure about everyone else but  I wouldn’t want to be on a RFN boat that mistakenly started to slow down and level off at/close to PD these days…



KevinB said:


> Of that numbI'd say a Marshall Plan 2.0 is needed for the Eastern European Countries - including Russia
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504084083428798469



#6 is an interesting one.  I’d of never thought of that on my own.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Eye In The Sky said:


> She is like the drunk, confused, not-so-popular aunt at  wedding who makes a toast at the reception and everyone is thinking "here she goes again...sigh".



So, pretty much like most of the people in her BC Gulf Islands riding who vote for her all the time then?


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Jarnhamar said:


> Motivating words from our Minister of Foreign Affairs


----------



## daftandbarmy

FJAG said:


> Welcome to my teenage years in the '60s.
> 
> When's the last time you heard a Conelrad Alert test on your TV or radio? My generation heard tons of them.
> 
> 🍻



Time to trot out Bert the Turtle again:


----------



## Czech_pivo

HiTechComms said:


> More or less started in 1998.  Russia subverted Ukraine a long time ago using their techniques that came out of USSR in the 1960s. Ukraine is not mono ethnic country, like Poland.  I guess when Polish-Russo war the Polish government opted against generals to keep conquered areas in order for the country to stay ethnically monolithic. Hard to subvert a country where everyone has unity, humans are very Tribalistic. Yuri Bezmenov discussed this in detail.


Poland is only ‘mono ethnic’, as you call it, because of the Nazi’s killing off 95% of the Jews of Poland, Stalin redrawing Polands borders (which lead to over 8million Germans be forced out of Poland and then signing ‘mutual friendship’ agreements on the exchanging of ethnic populations in 1946-48, shifting Poles, Ukrainians, Benlarussians and Lithuanians.


----------



## FJAG

UN's International Court of Justice weighs in:



> Ukraine war: UN's top court orders Putin to stop invasion
> 
> 
> Judges at the International Court of Justice have ordered Vladimir Putin to immediately halt his invasion of Ukraine after a case brought by Kyiv in an effort to further isolate him on the world stage.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.dailymail.co.uk





> https://www.icj-cij.org/public/files/case-related/182/182-20220316-SUM-01-00-EN.pdf





> https://www.icj-cij.org/public/files/case-related/182/182-20220316-ORD-01-00-EN.pdf



🍻


----------



## daftandbarmy

Jarnhamar said:


> Motivating words from our Minister of Foreign Affairs


----------



## HiTechComms

Czech_pivo said:


> Poland is only ‘mono ethnic’, as you call it, because of the Nazi’s killing off 95% of the Jews of Poland, Stalin redrawing Polands borders (which lead to over 8million Germans be forced out of Poland and then signing ‘mutual friendship’ agreements on the exchanging of ethnic populations in 1946-48, shifting Poles, Ukrainians, Benlarussians and Lithuanians.


Lviv use to be in Poland. I know people that had parents that had a day between being a Pole or a Ukrainians. It is what it is. The borders in Europe were always blurry, I honestly don't think its bad that Poland is ethnically monolithic now. Its how the Polish race survived over the centuries of oppression and subjugation its just made them more resilient people. Although Poland is in the EU and NATO it shares very little with the Anglo-Saxon-Germanic peoples culturally. Poland is Poland just as is Isreal for Isreal.  

Polska StronK


----------



## YZT580

OldTanker said:


> Even while we don't know the outcome of the current war in Ukraine, what comes next? Are the big boys wargaming the collapse of Russia? Who gets the 6000 nukes? Will Putin 2.0 be worse? How long will sanctions last? Or will we prove Putin right that the West wants to destroy Russia. Do we? Be careful what you wish for, it might come true.


wargames are only fancy computer games and are very vulnerable to gigo.  Better to go with common sense.


----------



## TheProfessional

FJAG said:


> UN's International Court of Justice weighs in:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 🍻


The court is _ordering_ him? Rofl the UN wouldn't be able to order a damn McDouble off the value menu. I understand the idea here of condemning Putin and everything, but I find it funny. The UN irritates me so damn much. Must be their historical incompetence and useless ROEs.


----------



## YZT580

HiTechComms said:


> More or less started in 1998.  Russia subverted Ukraine a long time ago using their techniques that came out of USSR in the 1960s. Ukraine is not mono ethnic country, like Poland.  I guess when Polish-Russo war the Polish government opted against generals to keep conquered areas in order for the country to stay ethnically monolithic. Hard to subvert a country where everyone has unity, humans are very Tribalistic. Yuri Bezmenov discussed this in detail.


started long before then.  The Russians have been killing or transporting Ukraines for decades and replacing them with their own.  That is the only way they achieved their numbers in Donbass


----------



## Czech_pivo

HiTechComms said:


> Lviv use to be in Poland. I know people that had parents that had a day between being a Pole or a Ukrainians. It is what it is. The borders in Europe were always blurry, I honestly don't think its bad that Poland is ethnically monolithic now. Its how the Polish race survived over the centuries of oppression and subjugation its just made them more resilient people. Although Poland is in the EU and NATO it shares very little with the Anglo-Saxon-Germanic peoples culturally. Poland is Poland just as is Isreal for Isreal.
> 
> Polska StronK


Poland survived those time periods because of its Religion, plains and simple. It was the Priests who kept the people together - Lutheran Prussians to the west and Orthodox Russians/Ukrainians to the east and Jews around them - and all of them ‘heretics’ to the RC Pole.

Israel is not as ‘mono-ethnic’, to use your term, as you like to think. There are many Christian and Moslem citizens within the country, who are very proud to be Israeli citizens.


----------



## HiTechComms

Czech_pivo said:


> Poland survived those time periods because of its Religion, plains and simple. It was the Priests who kept the people together - Lutheran Prussians to the west and Orthodox Russians/Ukrainians to the east and Jews around them - and all of them ‘heretics’ to the RC Pole.
> 
> Israel is not as ‘mono-ethnic’, to use your term, as you like to think. There are many Christian and Moslem citizens within the country, who are very proud to be Israeli citizens.


I am not sure why you are trying to give me a history lesson of the country I was born and raised in. There are a lot of reasons why poles managed to survive. 

Israel stands for Israel Never said they are mono ethnic, they have their own rules about their own country to insure their right to exist. 

Any way off topic.


----------



## HiTechComms

YZT580 said:


> started long before then.  The Russians have been killing or transporting Ukraines for decades and replacing them with their own.  That is the only way they achieved their numbers in Donbass


Yep. Population replacement is a real thing. Russia especially under the soviets were experts at this.


----------



## Jarnhamar

HiTechComms said:


> I am not sure why you are trying to give me a history lesson of the country I was born and raised in.


How old were you when you left Poland again?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest stats from UKR mil int going into Week 4 ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

A few of the digs made by UKR's pres in his speech to the Budestag (Google English link to official text - PDF of Google transl also attached) ....


> ... When we told you that Nord Stream was a weapon and a preparation for a great war, we heard in response that it was an economy after all. Economy. Economy. And it was cement for a new wall.  When we asked you what Ukraine needs to do to become a member of NATO, to be safe, to receive security guarantees, we heard the answer: such a decision is not on the table yet and will not be in the near future. Like the chairs for us at this table. As you are procrastinating now with the issue of Ukraine's accession to the European Union. Frankly, for some it is politics. In fact, they are stones. Stones for a new wall ...





> ... If you remember what the Berlin Air Bridge meant to you, which could have been done because the sky was safe. You were not killed from the sky, as now in our country, when we can not even make an air bridge! When the sky gives only Russian missiles and air bombs ...





> ... I appeal to you from everyone who has heard politicians say, "Never again." And who saw that these words are worthless ...





> ... After the destruction of Kharkiv ... For the second time, in 80 years. After the bombing of Chernihiv, Sumy and Donbass. For the second time, in 80 years. After thousands of people were tortured and killed. For the second time, in 80 years. Because then what is the historical responsibility that has not yet been redeemed to the Ukrainian people for what happened 80 years ago.  And now, so that a new one does not appear, behind a new wall, which will again demand redemption ...


OP edit to add link to official English version.


----------



## The Bread Guy

What a difference a couple of weeks or so can make - this from 4 March ...








						Calls for NATO no-fly zone in Ukraine 'irresponsible', Lithuania PM says
					

Any calls for NATO to enforce a no-fly zone in Ukraine would be irresponsible and could drag the military alliance into direct conflict with Russia, Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte said on Friday.




					www.reuters.com
				



... and this from today








						Lithuanian parliament calls for no-fly zone over Ukraine
					

The Lithuanian parliament on Thursday unanimously adopted a resolution calling for a no-fly zone over Ukraine.




					www.lrt.lt


----------



## WLSC

The Bread Guy said:


> A few of the digs made by UKR's pres in his speech to the Budestag (Google English link to official text - PDF of Google transl also attached) ....


This guys know how to communicate.  The atmosphere in the Bundestag most have been pretty cold.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Czech_pivo said:


> What does any of that even mean. What are we, the Hostess?



Exactly how the government envisions us. 
We can't do any heavy lifting because we skipped the gym for drama class. 

Now we leverage a sense of self-entitlement and perceived importance on the world stage to tell other countries what they should be doing it, how they should be doing it, and they need to "do more".

Classic do as I say not as I do.


----------



## OldSolduer

Jarnhamar said:


> Exactly how the government envisions us.
> We can't do any heavy lifting because we skipped the gym for drama class.
> 
> Now we leverage a sense of self-entitlement and perceived importance on the world stage to tell other countries what they should be doing it, how they should be doing it, and they need to "do more".
> 
> Classic do as I say not as I do.


OMG that is so true - love the drama class line.

At least the Ukranians have a comedian as a leader.

Adding: Don't believe anything you hear and only half of what you see. My dad's advice.


----------



## Czech_pivo

FusMR said:


> This guys know how to communicate.  The atmosphere in the Bundestag most have been pretty cold.


I love this line from the speech:
_"When we told you that Nord Stream was a weapon and a preparation for a great war, we heard in response that it was an economy after all. Economy. Economy. And it was cement for a new wall."_

And this line:
_"We understand that you want to continue the economy. Economics. Economics."_

Now this one I can't fully understand....not sure if he's talking about descendants from 80yrs ago or going all the way back to Frederick the Great and the Grand Coalition to defeat the tyranny of Napoleon.
_"Give Germany the leadership you deserve. And what your descendants will be proud of."_


----------



## The Bread Guy

FusMR said:


> This guys know how to communicate.  The atmosphere in the Bundestag most have been pretty cold.


Some media say he was channeling Ronnie Reagan, and there _was_ a "thank you for the help" thrown in there, too, but those jumped out at me way more than the CN Tower reference in his Canadian speech.

Meanwhile, UKR scrapyards appear to be making a killing (Google English link to UKR media) ....


> ... "World experience in the processing of military equipment. We are already studying the processing technologies that will be presented to members and partners of our association," - said in a statement.
> 
> Valentyn Makarenko, chairman of the board of the Interpipe Vtormet waste processing plant, said that there was a shortage of scrap metal in Ukraine, but it has now been added.
> 
> "We will recycle it. This is the product we need," Makarenko said.
> 
> He clarified that scrap metal is only unusable equipment.
> 
> "Proper usable equipment in the form of a tank, armored personnel carrier or other equipment is a military trophy," said the expert ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> ... Now this one I can't fully understand....not sure if he's talking about descendants from 80yrs ago or going all the way back to Frederick the Great and the Grand Coalition to defeat the tyranny of Napoleon.
> _"Give Germany the leadership you deserve. And what your descendants will be proud of."_


I took that at face value:  do the right thing so your grandkids'll be proud.  Then again, I don't know history as well as many on these fora.


----------



## Quirky

Jarnhamar said:


> Exactly how the government envisions us.
> We can't do any heavy lifting because we skipped the gym for drama class.
> 
> Now we leverage a sense of self-entitlement and perceived importance on the world stage to tell other countries what they should be doing it, how they should be doing it, and they need to "do more".
> 
> Classic do as I say not as I do.



My take: 

Canada skips gym for drama class while critiquing the physique and form of other countries.

Pretty much what you said 😛


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504440205352349700


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504416951518564360


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504443122000052232

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504444495336812561


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504440205352349700


----------



## Remius

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504440205352349700




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504441427929047041


----------



## KevinB

Appears to be UAF SR-25 shot down

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504449198745432066


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504416951518564360


Let the oligarchs be free (or defectors are us)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Interesting perspective from a guy who fought in AFG for the Soviets and is now a Latvian reserve officer ...








						Veteran: in Ukraine Russia has committed the same mistakes it did in Afghanistan - Baltic News Network - News from Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia
					

Russia has not learned anything from the bitter experience gained in Afghanistan and it has committed the same mistakes in Ukraine, says Latvian National Armed Forces reserve officer, former manager of the association of Latvia-based veterans of Afghan war and other military conflicts Gunārs Rusiņš.




					bnn-news.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

Bag 'em and tag 'em...


_As Russian Troop Deaths Climb, Morale Becomes an Issue, Officials Say_​More than 7,000 Russian troops have been killed in less than three weeks of fighting, according to conservative U.S. estimates.

WASHINGTON — In 36 days of fighting on Iwo Jima during World War II, nearly 7,000 Marines were killed. Now, 20 days after President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia invaded Ukraine, his military has already lost more soldiers, according to American intelligence estimates.

The conservative side of the estimate, at more than 7,000 Russian troop deaths, is greater than the number of American troops killed over 20 years in Iraq and Afghanistan combined.

It is a staggering number amassed in just three weeks of fighting, American officials say, with implications for the combat effectiveness of Russian units, including soldiers in tank formations. Pentagon officials say a 10 percent casualty rate, including dead and wounded, for a single unit renders it unable to carry out combat-related tasks.

With more than 150,000 Russian troops now involved in the war in Ukraine, Russian casualties, when including the estimated 14,000 to 21,000 injured, are near that level. And the Russian military has also lost at least three generals in the fight, according to Ukrainian, NATO and Russian officials.

Pentagon officials say that a high, and rising, number of war dead can destroy the will to continue fighting. The result, they say, has shown up in intelligence reports that senior officials in the Biden administration read every day: One recent report focused on low morale among Russian troops and described soldiers just parking their vehicles and walking off into the woods.

The American officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters, caution that their numbers of Russian troop deaths are inexact, compiled through analysis of the news media, Ukrainian figures (which tend to be high, with the latest at 13,500), Russian figures (which tend to be low, with the latest at 498), satellite imagery and careful perusal of video images of Russian tanks and troops that come under fire.

American military and intelligence officials know, for instance, how many troops are usually in a tank, and can extrapolate from that the number of casualties when an armored vehicle is hit by, say, a Javelin anti-tank missile.

The high rate of casualties goes far to explain why Russia’s much-vaunted force has remained largely stalled outside of Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital.

“Losses like this affect morale and unit cohesion, especially since these soldiers don’t understand why they’re fighting,” said Evelyn Farkas, the top Pentagon official for Russia and Ukraine during the Obama administration. “Your overall situational awareness decreases. Someone’s got to drive, someone’s got to shoot.”

But, she added, “that’s just the land forces.” With Russian ground forces in disarray, Mr. Putin has increasingly looked to the skies to attack Ukrainian cities, residential buildings, hospitals and even schools. That aerial bombardment, officials say, has helped camouflage the Russian military’s poor performance on the ground. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said this week that an estimated 1,300 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed in the war.

Signs of Russia’s challenges abound. Late last week, Russian news sources reported that Mr. Putin had put two of his top intelligence officials under house arrest. The officials, who run the Fifth Service of Russia’s main intelligence service, the FSB, were interrogated for providing poor intelligence ahead of the invasion, according to Andrei Soldatov, a Russian security

“They were in charge of providing political intelligence and cultivating networks of support in Ukraine,” Mr. Soldatov said in an interview. “They told Putin what he wanted to hear” about how the invasion would progress.

Russians themselves may be hearing only what Mr. Putin wants them to hear about his “operation” in Ukraine, which he refuses to call a war or an invasion. Since it began, he has exerted iron control over the news outlets in Russia; state media is not publicizing most casualties, and has minimized the destruction.

 But some Russians have access to virtual private networks (VPNs) and are able to get news from the West. 

“I don’t believe he can wall off, indefinitely, Russians from the truth,” William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, told the Senate last Thursday. “Especially as realities began to puncture that bubble, the realities of killed and wounded coming home, and the increasing number, the realities of the economic consequences for ordinary Russians, the realities of the horrific scenes of hospitals and schools being bombed next door in Ukraine, and of civilian casualties there as well.”

The news of the generals’ deaths is trickling out, first from Ukrainians, then confirmed by NATO officials, with one death acknowledged by Mr. Putin in a speech. They have been identified as Maj. Gen. Andrei Kolesnikov, a commander from Russia’s eastern military district; Maj. Gen. Vitaly Gerasimov, first deputy commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army; and Maj. Gen. Andrei Sukhovetsky, deputy commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army.

 Western officials say that around 20 Russian generals were in Ukraine as part of the war effort, and that they may have pushed closer to the front to boost morale. 
“Three generals already — that’s a shocking number,” Michael McFaul, the former United States ambassador to Russia, said in an interview.

On Wednesday, Ukrainian officials reported that a fourth general, Maj. Gen. Oleg Mityaev, the commander of the 150th motorized rifle division, had been killed in fighting.

Two American military officials said that many Russian generals are talking on unsecured phones and radios. In at least one instance, they said, the Ukrainians intercepted a general’s call, geolocated it, and attacked his location, killing him and his staff.

If Russian military deaths continue to rise, the kinds of civic organizations that called attention to troop deaths and injuries during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan could once more come to prominence.

But the Russian toll, some military specialists and lawmakers say, is unlikely to change Mr. Putin’s strategy.












						As Russian Troop Deaths Climb, Morale Becomes an Issue, Officials Say
					

More than 7,000 Russian troops have been killed in less than three weeks of fighting, according to conservative U.S. estimates.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

daftandbarmy said:


> Bag 'em and tag 'em...
> 
> 
> _As Russian Troop Deaths Climb, Morale Becomes an Issue, Officials Say_​More than 7,000 Russian troops have been killed in less than three weeks of fighting, according to conservative U.S. estimates.
> 
> WASHINGTON — In 36 days of fighting on Iwo Jima during World War II, nearly 7,000 Marines were killed. Now, 20 days after President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia invaded Ukraine, his military has already lost more soldiers, according to American intelligence estimates.
> 
> The conservative side of the estimate, at more than 7,000 Russian troop deaths, is greater than the number of American troops killed over 20 years in Iraq and Afghanistan combined.
> 
> It is a staggering number amassed in just three weeks of fighting, American officials say, with implications for the combat effectiveness of Russian units, including soldiers in tank formations. Pentagon officials say a 10 percent casualty rate, including dead and wounded, for a single unit renders it unable to carry out combat-related tasks.
> 
> With more than 150,000 Russian troops now involved in the war in Ukraine, Russian casualties, when including the estimated 14,000 to 21,000 injured, are near that level. And the Russian military has also lost at least three generals in the fight, according to Ukrainian, NATO and Russian officials.
> 
> Pentagon officials say that a high, and rising, number of war dead can destroy the will to continue fighting. The result, they say, has shown up in intelligence reports that senior officials in the Biden administration read every day: One recent report focused on low morale among Russian troops and described soldiers just parking their vehicles and walking off into the woods.
> 
> The American officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters, caution that their numbers of Russian troop deaths are inexact, compiled through analysis of the news media, Ukrainian figures (which tend to be high, with the latest at 13,500), Russian figures (which tend to be low, with the latest at 498), satellite imagery and careful perusal of video images of Russian tanks and troops that come under fire.
> 
> American military and intelligence officials know, for instance, how many troops are usually in a tank, and can extrapolate from that the number of casualties when an armored vehicle is hit by, say, a Javelin anti-tank missile.
> 
> The high rate of casualties goes far to explain why Russia’s much-vaunted force has remained largely stalled outside of Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital.
> 
> “Losses like this affect morale and unit cohesion, especially since these soldiers don’t understand why they’re fighting,” said Evelyn Farkas, the top Pentagon official for Russia and Ukraine during the Obama administration. “Your overall situational awareness decreases. Someone’s got to drive, someone’s got to shoot.”
> 
> But, she added, “that’s just the land forces.” With Russian ground forces in disarray, Mr. Putin has increasingly looked to the skies to attack Ukrainian cities, residential buildings, hospitals and even schools. That aerial bombardment, officials say, has helped camouflage the Russian military’s poor performance on the ground. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said this week that an estimated 1,300 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed in the war.
> 
> Signs of Russia’s challenges abound. Late last week, Russian news sources reported that Mr. Putin had put two of his top intelligence officials under house arrest. The officials, who run the Fifth Service of Russia’s main intelligence service, the FSB, were interrogated for providing poor intelligence ahead of the invasion, according to Andrei Soldatov, a Russian security
> 
> “They were in charge of providing political intelligence and cultivating networks of support in Ukraine,” Mr. Soldatov said in an interview. “They told Putin what he wanted to hear” about how the invasion would progress.
> 
> Russians themselves may be hearing only what Mr. Putin wants them to hear about his “operation” in Ukraine, which he refuses to call a war or an invasion. Since it began, he has exerted iron control over the news outlets in Russia; state media is not publicizing most casualties, and has minimized the destruction.
> 
> But some Russians have access to virtual private networks (VPNs) and are able to get news from the West.
> 
> “I don’t believe he can wall off, indefinitely, Russians from the truth,” William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, told the Senate last Thursday. “Especially as realities began to puncture that bubble, the realities of killed and wounded coming home, and the increasing number, the realities of the economic consequences for ordinary Russians, the realities of the horrific scenes of hospitals and schools being bombed next door in Ukraine, and of civilian casualties there as well.”
> 
> The news of the generals’ deaths is trickling out, first from Ukrainians, then confirmed by NATO officials, with one death acknowledged by Mr. Putin in a speech. They have been identified as Maj. Gen. Andrei Kolesnikov, a commander from Russia’s eastern military district; Maj. Gen. Vitaly Gerasimov, first deputy commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army; and Maj. Gen. Andrei Sukhovetsky, deputy commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army.
> 
> Western officials say that around 20 Russian generals were in Ukraine as part of the war effort, and that they may have pushed closer to the front to boost morale.
> “Three generals already — that’s a shocking number,” Michael McFaul, the former United States ambassador to Russia, said in an interview.
> 
> On Wednesday, Ukrainian officials reported that a fourth general, Maj. Gen. Oleg Mityaev, the commander of the 150th motorized rifle division, had been killed in fighting.
> 
> Two American military officials said that many Russian generals are talking on unsecured phones and radios. In at least one instance, they said, the Ukrainians intercepted a general’s call, geolocated it, and attacked his location, killing him and his staff.
> 
> If Russian military deaths continue to rise, the kinds of civic organizations that called attention to troop deaths and injuries during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan could once more come to prominence.
> 
> But the Russian toll, some military specialists and lawmakers say, is unlikely to change Mr. Putin’s strategy.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As Russian Troop Deaths Climb, Morale Becomes an Issue, Officials Say
> 
> 
> More than 7,000 Russian troops have been killed in less than three weeks of fighting, according to conservative U.S. estimates.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com


Well, in the Russian case, with their mobile crematoriums, its like:  Douse'em and burn'em.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504438591639990278


----------



## KevinB

First world problems and all that...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504113410791047170


----------



## KevinB

Russia warns United States: we have the might to put you in your place
					

Russia warned the United States on Thursday that Moscow had the might to put the world's pre-eminent superpower in its place and accused the West of stoking a wild Russophobic plot to tear Russia apart.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504454325900304390


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> Russia warns United States: we have the might to put you in your place
> 
> 
> Russia warned the United States on Thursday that Moscow had the might to put the world's pre-eminent superpower in its place and accused the West of stoking a wild Russophobic plot to tear Russia apart.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com



Well, if they have a hammer it isn't an economic one:














						Visualizing the $94 Trillion World Economy in One Chart
					

Which countries and regions contribute the most to the world economy? In this infographic, we break down all $94 trillion of global GDP by country.




					www.visualcapitalist.com


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504458537686253571


----------



## Quirky

KevinB said:


> Russia warns United States: we have the might to put you in your place
> 
> 
> Russia warned the United States on Thursday that Moscow had the might to put the world's pre-eminent superpower in its place and accused the West of stoking a wild Russophobic plot to tear Russia apart.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com



Is Russia hiring Melanie Joly to convene the US?


----------



## McG

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504416951518564360


Putin did just give a speech that hinted at getting on with purges. 
Some may have taken this as a sign that it's time to get out with their lives.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504443122000052232
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504444495336812561


Could this be a drill on how to evac Moscow in case of a nuc attack?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some OS #s from the UKR info-machine








						Russia uses 97 tactical task forces in Ukraine, 15 of them completely destroyed, 18 are combat ineffective – Arestovych
					

Russia used 97 tactical task forces in Ukraine, of which 15 were completely destroyed, another 18 are combat ineffective, adviser to the head of the President's Office of Ukraine Oleksiy Arestovych said.




					en.interfax.com.ua


----------



## Remius

Czech_pivo said:


> Could this be a drill on how to evac Moscow in case of a nuc attack?


Didn't the Russians state they were going to start seizing private aircraft in Russia as a form of retaliation?


----------



## Skysix

FusMR said:


> This guys know how to communicate.  The atmosphere in the Bundestag most have been pretty cold.


The right man at the right place at the right timrle. Will go down in history as one of the world's great leaders.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504474149682483217


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR's lead negotiator:  we need a peace deal EVERYONE signs on to ....


> ... Mykhailo Podo(l)yak noted that in order to prevent Russia’s another violation of international law and treaties, Ukraine wants to spell out in detail a specific plan for the withdrawal of Russian troops, legally verify it and gain the support of international partners.
> 
> "Besides, it is foreign states that will guarantee the fulfillment of conditions and Ukraine’s security in the future. This will be a document that describes in detail the procedure in case of repeated aggression by Russia. This is an innovative formula authored by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, which can become the basis for creating a completely new security system in Europe," said the Adviser to the Head of the President's Office.
> 
> In his opinion, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has shown that the entire architecture of European security must be revised. That is why our state wants to end this war with a new coalition, so powerful that it will stop Russia if it wants to attack someone again ...


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> UKR's lead negotiator:  we need a peace deal EVERYONE signs on to ....


and originally borders I am sure -- they have paid too high a price to accept a return to the 2014 borders.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504494713889505280


----------



## WLSC

Skysix said:


> The right man at the right place at the right timrle. Will go down in history as one of the world's great leaders.


I think the western world is lucky to have him.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Arnie is now stepping up to the plate.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504426844199669762


----------



## The Bread Guy

FusMR said:


> I think the western world is lucky to have him.


... while making some in the western world just a titch uncomfortable sometimes, too - in a good "what am _I_ doing compared to him?" way ....

Meanwhile, UKR's DefMin is reminding everyone that not everyone trying to do an arms deal is necessarily a good guy ....


> ... Unfortunately, as in any war, there are those who seek to profit from human suffering. Such characters introduce themselves as “advisers”, “assistants”, “heads of departments”, and even present fake “documents” to prove their “official positions”. As the Minister, I responsibly declare: all such persons are scum, looters and traitors who have nothing to do with the defense of Ukraine but work for their own and/or the enemy’s pockets.  With this in mind, I call on the international community to be vigilant and urge you to seek clarification of the powers of all “authorized persons” in the Embassies and offices of military attachés of Ukraine and to turn all these “lords of war” with fake documents over to law enforcement agencies ...


Twas ever thus ...


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504270040295788546


----------



## The Bread Guy

Interesting tack, this:  Don't comply with UN's ICJ, RUS?  Lose your veto, then ....








						If Russia doesn't comply with order of International Court of Justice, it must waive right of veto in UN Security Council - MFA
					

If the Russian Federation does not comply with the mandatory order of the International Court of Justice, then it must give up the right of veto in the UN Security Council, Oleh Nikolenko, the spokesman for the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, said.




					en.interfax.com.ua


----------



## Eye In The Sky

KevinB said:


> Appears to be UAF SR-25 shot down
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504449198745432066



That was not a successful ejection.   Ugh.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

I saw this in another forum, not sure what it really means if anything.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504374496358187014


----------



## NavyShooter

There was a pop of the seat going I think, but a horizontal ejection that close to the ground probably has far less silk canopy, and far more plowing of a field than one would need to survive.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

daftandbarmy said:


> Two American military officials said that many Russian generals are talking on unsecured phones and radios. In at least one instance, they said, the Ukrainians intercepted a general’s call, geolocated it, and attacked his location, killing him and his staff.



If true, this says lots in a single para.


----------



## The Bread Guy

From the RUS MoD info-machine via YouTube:  Kherson residents finally able to honour Soviet war fallen (while flying the hammer & sickle) ....




This from the caption translated via Google


> *Residents of Kherson for the first time since 2015 were able to honor the memory of Soviet soldiers who liberated the city in the Second World War*
> 
> ◾️ The day before, about 200 residents of the city of Kherson took part in a rally dedicated to the memory of Soviet soldiers who liberated the city from Nazi invaders in March 1944. For the first time in many years, in a calm atmosphere, citizens, members of veteran organizations and activists were able to gather at the Eternal Flame and the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in the Park of Glory.
> 
> ◾️ After the words of gratitude addressed to the Soviet soldiers during the rally for the liberation of the city during the Great Patriotic War, the audience with loud applause supported the initiative to come to the solemn procession on Victory Day - May 9, 2022.
> 
> ◾️ Holding a commemorative rally in Kherson became possible for the first time since 2015. It was then, as part of decommunization, that the use of Soviet symbols was completely prohibited at the legislative level in Ukraine.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504422639506534406
and a rather eerie note:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504524913285160964


----------



## KevinB

Seems the mighty Chechen's aren't as eager to fight the Ukrainians as they let on...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503839941104656390


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Drones flying into NATO territory have forced the alliance to decide how to respond -- if at all -- to incidents inside its borders
Drones flying into NATO territory have forced the alliance to decide how to respond -- if at all -- to incidents inside its borders


----------



## The Bread Guy

Eye In The Sky said:


> Drones flying into NATO territory have forced the alliance to decide how to respond -- if at all -- to incidents inside its borders
> Drones flying into NATO territory have forced the alliance to decide how to respond -- if at all -- to incidents inside its borders


Talk about un-deconflicted airspace on a grand scale ....


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504532070491729924


----------



## KevinB

and a little bit of humor - though it does nothing to reduce the horror of what happened yesterday.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504400094174625793


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504442492510703620


----------



## KevinB

and because you can never get enough tractor videos...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504419401315098628


----------



## The Bread Guy

In case anyone's interested, here's a PDF capture of today's RUS MoD's briefing and deck on the latest "bioweapons from America" tile in the Ukrainian narrative mosaic - briefing's in English, deck's in Russian.


----------



## Czech_pivo

.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Bumping this oldie, but goodie from mid-December 2021 ....


Czech_pivo said:


> Some interesting news just out from the Polish/Belarus border area.
> 
> Polish soldier reportedly crosses border into Belarus claiming asylum​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Polish soldier reportedly crosses border into Belarus claiming asylum
> 
> 
> The Belarusian authorities claim the soldier fled because he disagrees with Poland's border policies and treatment of refugees.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> notesfrompoland.com


... with the very latest on the file from RUS state media today








						Polish soldier who defected to Belarus found hanged – authorities
					

A Polish soldier who defected to Belarus last year has been found hanged in Minsk, with authorities not ruling out murder




					www.rt.com
				



How do you say "Epstiened" in Belarusian, I wonder?


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Bumping this oldie, but goodie from mid-December 2021 ....
> 
> ... with the very latest on the file from RUS state media today
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Polish soldier who defected to Belarus found hanged – authorities
> 
> 
> A Polish soldier who defected to Belarus last year has been found hanged in Minsk, with authorities not ruling out murder
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rt.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How do you say "Epstiened" in Belarusian, I wonder?


That is so incredibly sad.  The poor bastard.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504540245869617154


----------



## OldSolduer

The Bread Guy said:


> Bumping this oldie, but goodie from mid-December 2021 ....
> 
> ... with the very latest on the file from RUS state media today
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Polish soldier who defected to Belarus found hanged – authorities
> 
> 
> A Polish soldier who defected to Belarus last year has been found hanged in Minsk, with authorities not ruling out murder
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rt.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How do you say "Epstiened" in Belarusian, I wonder?


WTF? I've asked this question far too much today.


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504540245869617154


Is it safe to say that the only way the Russian troops in Transnistria can get any sort of supplies in now is by flights across Ukraine, which will be contested.  Has Moldova closed its airspace to Russian planes?


----------



## Skysix

KevinB said:


> and a little bit of humor - though it does nothing to reduce the horror of what happened yesterday.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504400094174625793


Hmmm. I wonder if that drone that blew up in a schoolyard in Zagreb(?) A couple of days ago was on a reciprocal course from the Poutine Palace


----------



## Skysix

KevinB said:


> First world problems and all that...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504113410791047170


Has it been siezed yet?


----------



## MilEME09

Even China is reporting civilian deaths by Russia now


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504554084954779652


----------



## tomydoom

MilEME09 said:


> Even China is reporting civilian deaths by Russia now
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504554084954779652


That is huge, if the Chinese are offside, it's not good for Putin's longevity.


----------



## Spencer100

The Bread Guy said:


> From the RUS MoD info-machine via YouTube:  Kherson residents finally able to honour Soviet war fallen (while flying the hammer & sickle) ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This from the caption translated via Google


Just Xi and China playing all sides.  Years from now the war between Ukraine (NATO) and Russia will be won by China. They can not lose in this game.  If Russia fails China gets a weakened Russia which will turn to China for help. China will get to buy Russian assets cheap. Plus gain more control over Russia.  They have weakened Russia in Siberia.  Its like they planned it.

If Russia win China wins too.  They will say see we are there for you.  

And most of all they are seeing what weapons work and which don't.

I don't understand why no one see this.  China is the true problem.


----------



## suffolkowner

Spencer100 said:


> Just Xi and China playing all sides.  Years from now the war between Ukraine (NATO) and Russia will be won by China. They can not lose in this game.  If Russia fails China gets a weakened Russia which will turn to China for help. China will get to buy Russian assets cheap. Plus gain more control over Russia.  They have weakened Russia in Siberia.  Its like they planned it.
> 
> If Russia win China wins too.  They will say see we are there for you.
> 
> And most of all they are seeing what weapons work and which don't.
> 
> I don't understand why no one see this.  China is the true problem.


I mostly agree but better to deal with the problem in front of us right now. China's a tougher nut to crack especially if we continue to rely on their manufacturing and even mineral processing


----------



## Colin Parkinson

dug in BMD's


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504398328112594955


----------



## Furniture

Colin Parkinson said:


> dug in BMD's
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504398328112594955


Why do the signs say STOP in English?


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Furniture said:


> Why do the signs say STOP in English?


I was wondering about that as well. I think they were putting it on for a bit for the camera crew


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Looks an awful lot like Rostov....


----------



## OldSolduer

Any one hear of the Russian leaders evacuating to the Urals?


----------



## KevinB

Shouldn't be a shock to anyone at this point

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504412051187376131


----------



## KevinB

and on the Russian web of lies book



Farnaz Fassihi
NYT

Russia called for an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting on Friday to discuss its allegations that the U.S. is helping Ukraine develop biological weapons, claims that the U.S. and Ukraine have denied. The U.N. has said it has no evidence of such programs. Russia’s ambassador, Vasily Nebenzya, said he would provide documents to support the allegations to the council president. The U.S. ambassador, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said the council could not be fooled and that Russia was trying “to use this council as a venue for its disinformation and promoting its propaganda.”


----------



## KevinB

Probably because the Russians did not like this - or the idea they could have their veto revoked or kicked out the UNSC

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504233041618690051


----------



## KevinB

Allegedly footage of Russians being ambushed somewhere in Ukraine.
   Pretty sloppy drills and deplorable weapons handling...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504573184116408320


----------



## tomydoom

Spencer100 said:


> Just Xi and China playing all sides.  Years from now the war between Ukraine (NATO) and Russia will be won by China. They can not lose in this game.  If Russia fails China gets a weakened Russia which will turn to China for help. China will get to buy Russian assets cheap. Plus gain more control over Russia.  They have weakened Russia in Siberia.  Its like they planned it.
> 
> If Russia win China wins too.  They will say see we are there for you.
> 
> And most of all they are seeing what weapons work and which don't.
> 
> I don't understand why no one see this.  China is the true problem.


I have mentioned this before. I have always seen everyone’s true strategic challenge being China. This applies to us, the Russians, India.


----------



## KevinB

and because Why the F not...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503327421839417344








						Elon Musk Challenges Vladimir Putin to ‘Single Combat’ for Ukraine
					

“Do you agree to this fight?” he asked in Russian.




					www.bloomberg.com


----------



## Blackadder1916

Furniture said:


> Why do the signs say STOP in English?



Because that's probably the standard wording on "STOP" signs even in Russia and Ukraine.  Most everywhere in Europe (and probably anywhere else in the world you'd like to drive) the octagonal red sign with STOP (in English) is the legal road sign.


----------



## KevinB

tomydoom said:


> I have mentioned this before. I have always seen everyone’s true strategic challenge being China. This applies to us, the Russians, India.


China views power differently than Russia though, and acts much differently as well.
   Should we be concerned about China - absolutely, but not in the same way as Russia.
 We need to play the long game with China - it is a game they are exceptional at.


----------



## tomydoom

KevinB said:


> China views power differently than Russia though, and acts much differently as well.
> Should we be concerned about China - absolutely, but not in the same way as Russia.
> We need to play the long game with China - it is a game they are exceptional at.


Kevin, I absolutely agree with you.  I am always baffled by Putin's obsession with the west, at the cost of ignoring that challenge of China.


----------



## TacticalTea

"Mister President, distinguished members of the Security Council, Madam Under-Secretary-General DiCarlo, Director-General, Assistant High Commissioner,
*I also recognize the representative of the Aggressor State present here in the permanent seat of the Soviet Union*.
“The operation is developing successfully and in strict accordance with plans that have been previously approved”.
Said by Putin yesterday, three weeks after the unprovoked and unjustified Russian invasion of Ukraine started. Over these weeks the international community has wrestled with the question “Why?” Why has the Russian Federation decided to cosplay the Nazi Third Reich by attacking the peaceful neighbouring state and plunging the region into war? What are the reasons and what is the plan?
And yesterday we got the answer.
*Killing Ukrainian children. One hundred eight innocent souls so far. “Success, in strict accordance with plans”, according to Putin*."

-Sergiy Kyslytsia, UKRAmbUN

Powerful and to the point.

Does not recognize Russia at the UNSC, and logically demonstrates the mental element, the criminal intent behind the Putin regime's war 

-Heard at the 8998th meeting of the UNSC-


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Is it just me, or the term Soviet Union started to resurface since the invasion?


----------



## KevinB

Eye In The Sky said:


> Is it just me, or the term Soviet Union started to resurface since the invasion?


Multiple reasons - Russia wanting to rebuild it - flags etc
        - Ukraine points out that the seat was for the USSR, Ukraine ceded that to the Russian Republic with a number of qualifications, now violated, by Russia...


----------



## TacticalTea

Eye In The Sky said:


> Is it just me, or the term Soviet Union started to resurface since the invasion?


Well... when the invading forces' armored vehicles carry the flag of said Union... It's hard not to mention it.

Imho, the former Soviet republics should get together and elect a common representative for the UNSC.

Shower thought: just as the primary victims of Islamic extremism have always been Muslims, it seems the first victims of this war are the ethnic Russians and Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the East.


----------



## KevinB

TacticalTea said:


> Imho, the former Soviet republics should get together and elect a common representative for the UNSC.


Somehow I suspect Russia would like that even less than getting kicked out of the UNSC by UN action


----------



## Colin Parkinson

tomydoom said:


> Kevin, I absolutely agree with you.  I am always baffled by Putin's obsession with the west, at the cost of ignoring that challenge of China.


The West is a battle he could hopefully win.


----------



## Furniture

Blackadder1916 said:


> Because that's probably the standard wording on "STOP" signs even in Russia and Ukraine.  Most everywhere in Europe (and probably anywhere else in the world you'd like to drive) the octagonal red sign with STOP (in English) is the legal road sign.


Interesting, I don't recall taking note of it when I was driving in Italy, or France. Makes sense though, they wouldn't stand out if they look just like signs back home.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

If Russia (or some folks in Russia) want to be the Soviet Union v2, we should continue to call them the RF.  And say it every single chance we get…


----------



## KevinB

Colin Parkinson said:


> The West is a battle he could hopefully win.


He couldn't win militarily against either - and the only trying to force a conflict by force of arms is Putin.
  Everyone else was just happy sitting back.

Now China has to be pissed at Russia - because there is really only one conventional force to deter now (or in a few weeks).
  Also it will allow the West to focus more clearly on China after this is over.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504580157079580676


----------



## Czech_pivo

Blackadder1916 said:


> Because that's probably the standard wording on "STOP" signs even in Russia and Ukraine.  Most everywhere in Europe (and probably anywhere else in the world you'd like to drive) the octagonal red sign with STOP (in English) is the legal road sign.


Except in dear old Quebec..


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504580157079580676



Meanwhile, America be like .....


----------



## Spencer100

OldSolduer said:


> Any one hear of the Russian leaders evacuating to the Urals


Let me know.  I have get the camper ready.  Shopper's carry Iodine pills? 

Or Czech P should I just go sit at Dieppe Park?


----------



## Jarnhamar

Spencer100 said:


> Let me know.  I have get the camper ready.  Shopper's carry Iodine pills?


Oddly enough there's a shortage of anti radiation pills like iosat and Radblock in North America.

Not that you should worry about that. To do so would be admitting you don't have faith in our prime minister and inner circle to convene this to a successful resolution. That's dangerous wrong thing
​


----------



## Weinie

Spencer100 said:


> Just Xi and China playing all sides.  Years from now the war between Ukraine (NATO) and Russia will be won by China. They can not lose in this game.  If Russia fails China gets a weakened Russia which will turn to China for help. China will get to buy Russian assets cheap. Plus gain more control over Russia.  They have weakened Russia in Siberia.  Its like they planned it.
> 
> If Russia win China wins too.  They will say see we are there for you.
> 
> And most of all they are seeing what weapons work and which don't.
> 
> I don't understand why no one see this.  China is the true next problem.


FTFY.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504595426963509251


----------



## KevinB

U.S. Will Punish China if It Gives Military Aid to Russia, Blinken Says
					

President Biden plans to talk on Friday with Xi Jinping, who has a close partnership with Vladimir V. Putin and supports him in the Ukraine war.




					www.nytimes.com
				



The U.S. will punish China if it gives military aid to Russia, Blinken says.
The U.S. will punish China if it gives military aid to Russia, Blinken says.​





Image




President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, left, and President Xi Jinping of China met on Feb. 4 in Beijing, two weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine.Credit...Pool photo by Pavel Golovkin
WASHINGTON — Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said on Thursday that the United States would punish China if President Xi Jinping chose to give military aid to Russia for the war in Ukraine, where Russian forces have killed thousands of civilians.

“We’re concerned that they’re considering directly assisting Russia with military equipment to use in Ukraine,” Mr. Blinken said at a news conference in Washington. “President Biden will be speaking to President Xi tomorrow and will make clear that China will bear responsibility for any actions it takes to support Russia’s aggression, and we will not hesitate to impose costs.”

Mr. Blinken is the most senior U.S. official to explicitly warn China against giving military aid to Russia. He said that because of China’s ties to Russia, it had a special responsibility to try to persuade President Vladimir V. Putin to end his war.
But “it appears that China is moving in the opposite direction by refusing to condemn this aggression, while seeking to portray itself as a neutral arbiter,” Mr. Blinken said.
The White House announced on Thursday that Mr. Biden and Mr. Xi would talk on Friday as part of “ongoing efforts to maintain open lines of communication.” The two presidents are expected to discuss the war in Ukraine and competition between the United States and China, among other issues, the White House said.
Mr. Biden and Mr. Xi last spoke on Nov. 15 in a video call. The talk scheduled for Friday was arranged by Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, and Wang Yi, a member of the Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo, when the two met in Rome on Monday, said Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary. During a seven-hour meeting, Mr. Sullivan warned Mr. Wang that China should not give aid to Russia.
“This is an opportunity for President Biden to assess where President Xi stands,” Ms. Psaki said at a news briefing on Thursday. She added that there had been an “absence of denunciation by China of what Russia is doing,” which “flies in the face, of course, of everything China stands for, including the basic principles of the U.N. charter, including the basic principles of respect for sovereignty of nations.”
“So the fact that China has not denounced what Russia is doing in and of itself speaks volumes,” Ms. Psaki continued. “And it also speaks volumes not only in Russia and Ukraine, but around the world.”
Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin met on Feb. 4 in Beijing, two weeks before the invasion, and issued a 5,000-word statement that said their two countries had a partnership with “no limits.”
U.S. officials told The New York Times on Sunday that Russia had asked China to give it military equipment and support after Mr. Putin began his full-scale invasion on Feb. 24. One official said Russia had also asked for economic aid to help blunt the harsh sanctions imposed on the country by the United States and its European and Asian allies.
The State Department sent cables to allies saying that China had given positive signals on military aid, a European official said on Monday. The official added that Russia had requested five types of equipment: surface-to-air missiles, drones, armored vehicles, logistics vehicles and intelligence-related equipment.
A senior Pentagon official gave some different details this week, saying the request from Russia included drones, secure radios and even meals ready to eat, rations for troops commonly known as M.R.E.s. The official said the United States had received indications before the Rome meeting that China was inclined to oblige the Russian request.
The officials spoke to The Times on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of diplomatic, military and intelligence matters.
Pentagon officials have detected that the Russian military is having problems with the performance of air-to-ground and ground-to-ground missiles in the war. The Russian ground offensive has stalled in parts of Ukraine, with columns of tanks and other armored vehicles sitting for days on roads. U.S. officials have given a conservative estimate that more than 7,000 Russian troopshave been killed, more than the number of American troops killed in over 20 years of war in Iraq and Afghanistan combined.
The Russian military has turned to a tactic it used in wars in Chechnya and Syria: firing barrages of missiles, rockets and shells at cities to kill civilians, including many women and children, to try to force a surrender.
Even with the slaughter, Chinese officials have persisted in supporting Russia. They have blamed the United States for the war and echoed Mr. Putin in criticizing NATO. Chinese diplomats and state media organizations have amplified Kremlin propaganda and a conspiracy theory about Pentagon-funded bioweapons labs in Ukraine.
On Wednesday, Xue Hanqin, the Chinese judge at the International Court of Justice, sided with the Russian judge in dissenting from a ruling that Russia must immediately end its war in Ukraine. The vote was 13 to 2.
Starting in November, American officials shared intelligence about Russia’s troop buildup around Ukraine with Chinese officials and asked them to try to persuade Mr. Putin not to invade, but were rebuffed, U.S. officials have said. And a Western intelligence report said senior Chinese officials asked senior Russian officials in early February to hold off on invading Ukraine until after the Winter Olympics in Beijing, U.S. and European officials have said.
Qin Gang, the Chinese ambassador to the United States, wrote in an opinion essay published on Tuesday by The Washington Post that “assertions that China knew about, acquiesced to or tacitly supported this war are purely disinformation.”
Evan S. Medeiros, who served as a senior Asia director on the National Security Council in the Obama White House, wrote in an opinion essay published on Thursday by The Financial Times that Europe, China’s largest trading partner, must put pressure on Beijing to stop supporting Moscow in the war.
“Its strategic alignment with Russia before the invasion, combined with its enabling of Russia since the first missile struck, is evocative of the 1950s Sino-Soviet alliance,” he wrote, referring to a period when Mao and Stalin coordinated on politics and foreign policy.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504589613796675595


----------



## Spencer100

Jarnhamar said:


> Oddly enough there's a shortage of anti radiation pills like iosat and Radblock in North America.
> 
> Not that you should worry about that. To do so would be admitting you don't have faith in our prime minister and inner circle to convene this to a successful resolution. That's dangerous wrong thing
> ​


Crap you are right.  I can't find any online.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Furniture said:


> Interesting, I don't recall taking note of it when I was driving in Italy, or France. Makes sense though, they wouldn't stand out if they look just like signs back home.


When I lived in the Flemish speaking part of Belgium, the signs said ‘STOP’ and when I go into French speaking Belgium where the Walloon’s live to visit my Walloon girlfriend the signs were still ‘STOP’. Besides the King, the constant rain and frites, it’s one of the only things that unifies Belgium.


----------



## Blackadder1916

Czech_pivo said:


> Except in dear old Quebec..



Well, I did write ". . . and probably anywhere else in the world you'd like to drive . . . ", so I took it as a given.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504599571917205505


----------



## Czech_pivo

Spencer100 said:


> Let me know.  I have get the camper ready.  Shopper's carry Iodine pills?
> 
> Or Czech P should I just go sit at Dieppe Park?


Bring a case of OV and enjoy the sun reflecting off the Ren Cen.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504373168575766533

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504586041595944961


----------



## YZT580

Blackadder1916 said:


> Because that's probably the standard wording on "STOP" signs even in Russia and Ukraine.  Most everywhere in Europe (and probably anywhere else in the world you'd like to drive) the octagonal red sign with STOP (in English) is the legal road sign.


except Quebec


----------



## Spencer100

Czech_pivo said:


> Bring a case of OV and enjoy the sun reflecting off the Ren Cen.


OV! shit you must be a brother.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504591768603475972


----------



## TacticalTea

Spencer100 said:


> Let me know.  I have get the camper ready.  Shopper's carry Iodine pills?
> 
> Or Czech P should I just go sit at Dieppe Park?


Seeing those flights out of Moscow today/last night sure got me thinking about my dirty ole hometown... Farrrr from the cities and the CFBs.


----------



## Jarnhamar

TacticalTea said:


> Seeing those flights out of Moscow today/last night sure got me thinking about my dirty ole hometown... Farrrr from the cities and the CFBs.


I'm glad *all* the combat soldiers, vehicles, aircraft and equipment were moved out of Petawawa and are in Wainwright now...


----------



## Kilted

suffolkowner said:


> I mostly agree but better to deal with the problem in front of us right now. China's a tougher nut to crack especially if we continue to rely on their manufacturing and even mineral processing


I think in all reality it is up to the Chinese people to decide that enough is enough.


----------



## MilEME09

Jarnhamar said:


> I'm glad *all* the combat soldiers, vehicles, aircraft and equipment were moved out of Petawawa and are in Wainwright now.


Lucky us a train to a port is a day


----------



## Jarnhamar

Spencer100 said:


> Crap you are right.  I can't find any online.


You can find em on eBay for $100-$1500 a package.

If that's too expensive for you you can pony up $29.99 for a Tinder membership, change your location to within 10KMs of a nuke plant and sweet talk a girl (or boy) into getting you some pills. People within 10km get em for free from the plant, or at least in Pickering anyways. 

Yes my problem solving is bubble is right justified.


----------



## MilEME09

Major movement on the western front, Ukrainian forces push to within 25km of Kherson. Only two small towns remain along the highway to Kherson


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504615158240493569


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504547081071079432


----------



## MilEME09

Meanwhile our UN ambassador is having fun









						Russia and Canada in Twitter spat over 'kindergarten-level' UN letter post
					

Russia accused Canada on Thursday of childishly annotating a letter it sent at the United Nations seeking support for its draft resolution on providing aid access and civilian protection in Ukraine, which Ottawa reacted to with pointed comments.




					www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## Remius

MilEME09 said:


> Meanwhile our UN ambassador is having fun
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia and Canada in Twitter spat over 'kindergarten-level' UN letter post
> 
> 
> Russia accused Canada on Thursday of childishly annotating a letter it sent at the United Nations seeking support for its draft resolution on providing aid access and civilian protection in Ukraine, which Ottawa reacted to with pointed comments.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca


That’s is some diplomatic level trolling lol.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Meanwhile our UN ambassador is having fun
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia and Canada in Twitter spat over 'kindergarten-level' UN letter post
> 
> 
> Russia accused Canada on Thursday of childishly annotating a letter it sent at the United Nations seeking support for its draft resolution on providing aid access and civilian protection in Ukraine, which Ottawa reacted to with pointed comments.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca


I mean it's factually correct and next level trolling - I love it.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> Even China is reporting civilian deaths by Russia now
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504554084954779652


Chinese media's also happy to amplify the RUS MoD "evidence" alleging US bioweapons shenanigans, including this lovely graphic in English ....








						US' bio-web - Global Times
					






					www.globaltimes.cn


----------



## Zipperhead99

Remius said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504547081071079432


I know that Moldova is supposed to be neutral, but perhaps they would be interested in some NLAWs, Javelins and Stingers?  On a more serious note, I wonder if they smell blood in the water over Russia's debacle in Ukraine and are now being more bold?


----------



## MilEME09

Zipperhead99 said:


> I know that Moldova is supposed to be neutral, but perhaps they would be interested in some NLAWs, Javelins and Stingers?  On a more serious note, I wonder if they smell blood in the water over Russia's debacle in Ukraine and are now being more bold?


They, and Georgia know Russia doesn't have the forces to committ any more. Moldova could roll in and Russia couldn't do much, heck if Moldova promised to help Ukraine I bet a Ukrainian brigade would help them kick Russia out.


----------



## WLSC

The Bread Guy said:


> Chinese media's also happy to amplify the RUS MoD "evidence" alleging US bioweapons shenanigans, including this lovely graphic in English ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> US' bio-web - Global Times
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.globaltimes.cn


This will be soon publish on Facebook by true patriot…


----------



## Zipperhead99

Regarding all those explosions reported in Belarus yesterday, this is what their government and Russian state media is claiming









						Belarus claims to have thwarted anti-Russian terror attack
					

According to Russian state media, Belarusian secret services thwarted a group of people planning to stage a terrorist attack at a railway station




					www.jpost.com
				




I also see that Ukraine will be getting more than S300s...some SA-8, SA-10 and SA-14 too!





__





						US and NATO allies to send SA-8 SA-10 SA-12 SA-14 air defense missiles to Ukraine | Defense News March 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year
					

US and NATO allies to send SA-8 SA-10 SA-12 SA-14 air defense missiles to Ukraine




					www.armyrecognition.com
				




But, alas, Malaysia will not be providing Russian Metis to Ukraine





__





						Malaysia rules out giving up on Russian weapons purchase over situation in Ukraine | Defense News March 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year
					

Malaysia rules out giving up on Russian weapons purchase over situation in Ukraine




					www.armyrecognition.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Eye In The Sky said:


> Is it just me, or the term Soviet Union started to resurface since the invasion?


Not just you, for sure.

If the RUS MoD allows video of their own AFV's flying the hammer & sickle on their public videos on YT ...




... as well as pushing the "they can FINALLY honour Soviet sacrifices again" flying the hammer & sickle ...




... then I read that as part of the _official_ message track.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Labelling everything Islamophobic Russophobic sure seems ridiculous.


----------



## Furniture

The Bread Guy said:


> Not just you, for sure.
> 
> If the RUS MoD allows video of their own AFV's flying the hammer & sickle on their public videos on YT ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ... as well as pushing the "they can FINALLY honour Soviet sacrifices again" flying the hammer & sickle ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ... then I read that as part of the _official_ message track.


I suspect the goal is to appeal to the young people of Russia who never lived under Soviet rule. Fill their heads with garbage about how "back in Soviet times we were respected, and feared by the decadent West", just like Islamist fanatics do with young impressionable first/second generation immigrants.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Furniture said:


> I suspect the goal is to appeal to the young people of Russia who never lived under Soviet rule. Fill their heads with garbage about how "back in Soviet times we were respected, and feared by the decadent West", just like Islamist fanatics do with young impressionable first/second generation immigrants.


Some on social media have called it Russia's equivalent to the Confederate stars & bars.


----------



## OceanBonfire

These weirdos:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504048686766211073


----------



## Furniture

OceanBonfire said:


> These weirdos:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504048686766211073


There are a lot of well meaning, but completely clueless people out there... A lot.


----------



## OceanBonfire

> Here's how HMCS Halifax is supporting NATO's efforts against Russia by going to Northern Europe and the Baltic Sea... instead of the Mediterranean and Black Seas.





			https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/hmcs-halifax-to-deploy-saturday-1.6387664
		



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504532446364286976


----------



## MilEME09

OceanBonfire said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/hmcs-halifax-to-deploy-saturday-1.6387664
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504532446364286976


Wonder if we are seeing how many ships we can get going on short notice when this goes hot.


----------



## Furniture

MilEME09 said:


> Wonder if we are seeing how many ships we can get going on short notice when this goes hot.


With the RCN short 1000 people to sail, it would be a risky game. It's more likely because NATO wants more from us, and they want it now. 

A ship can be out the door pretty fast, and do it's work-up as it transits to theatre. A ship also has it's own AD, so it's a burden on the units around it...


----------



## MilEME09

Furniture said:


> With the RCN short 1000 people to sail, it would be a risky game. It's more likely because NATO wants more from us, and they want it now.
> 
> A ship can be out the door pretty fast, and do it's work-up as it transits to theatre. A ship also has it's own AD, so it's a burden on the units around it...


If I shooting war starts I think will will find fat to trim pretty fast to get people out the door, like DLN courses........ that said yes we are short people and given Russia has mined the black sea, a few MCDVs will need to go mine hunting for us....


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> They, and Georgia know Russia doesn't have the forces to committ any more. Moldova could roll in and Russia couldn't do much, heck if Moldova promised to help Ukraine I bet a Ukrainian brigade would help them kick Russia out.


These troops are isolated. They can only be resupplied now by flights crossing through Ukraine, with constant threat of being shot down.


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> If I shooting war starts I think will will find fat to trim pretty fast to get people out the door, like DLN courses........ that said yes we are short people and given Russia has mixed the black sea, a few MCDVs will need to go mine hunting for us....


When push comes to shove, there's no question in my mind we can find a way to send an entire fleet out.

It's just not sustainable. That's why, as I said in the other thread, we ought to slack it a bit on the peacetime operational engagements, when we can't even train our people and maintain our equipment properly.

So that we may be ready when a real threat emerges. as is the case right now.


----------



## Jarnhamar

OceanBonfire said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/hmcs-halifax-to-deploy-saturday-1.6387664
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504532446364286976





> Frigate will be 'fully ready to respond to anything,' says commanding officer​


​Okay there buds.


----------



## TacticalTea

Jarnhamar said:


> ​Okay there buds.


Aliens.

Rocket-armed sharks.

Budget cuts.

Nazi zombies.


----------



## Remius

TacticalTea said:


> Aliens.
> 
> Rocket-armed sharks.
> 
> Budget cuts.
> 
> Nazi zombies.


Godzilla.  You forgot Godzilla.  When anything nuclear is a possibility, then the odds of a Godzilla event go up.


----------



## MilEME09

TacticalTea said:


> Nazi zombies.


Zombie U boats?


----------



## Quirky

Jarnhamar said:


> Okay there buds.​



If this escalates, maybe NATO will assign the occupation of Kaliningrad to the Canadians? That should keep us engaged without being in the way of the big players.


----------



## kev994

TacticalTea said:


> Aliens.
> 
> Rocket-armed sharks.
> 
> Budget cuts.
> 
> Nazi zombies.


Sharks with frickin laser beams.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Interesting








						Odesa's Maze-Like Catacombs Could Be Bad News For Russian Invaders
					

Odesa's catacombs could prove vexing for Russian invaders just as they have for other enemies in conflicts past.




					www.thedrive.com


----------



## MilEME09

buckle up troops, we re going deeper down this rabbit hole


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504547425683337216


----------



## GK .Dundas

Well according to the CTV report the Navy has  sailors trained for combat !
Wow .  Thank God we have such brilliant journalists expounding.on the.world. 
Colour me  well informed and educated. ( about that sarcasm button , anybody?)


----------



## Remius

Jokes on you, Russia! Trudeau doesn't have to visit you to appropriate your culture.
					

So, you in the Kremlin thought you were safe from cringe-inducing action by Justin Trudeau just because you banned him from the country?




					www.thebeaverton.com


----------



## MilEME09

a bit more on todays advances by the UA near Kherson









						Ukraine update: Ukraine retakes 75 miles of Russian-held territory, pushes toward Kherson
					

This morning I hoped that new artillery barrages in Kherson Oblast were presaging a counteroffensive from the besieged city of Mikolayiv, toward Russian-occupied Kherson. It didn’t take long to confirm that yes, Ukraine’s first significant successful...




					www.dailykos.com


----------



## Eye In The Sky

MilEME09 said:


> buckle up troops, we re going deeper down this rabbit hole
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504547425683337216



Did Putin read Red Storm Rising recently or something?  You know, the part where the KGB hits a building where kids are, and they blame it on a sleeper agent from Germany and that whole chapter??  The crazy and ridiculous plan the Politburo comes up with to fan the flames for a war against NATO?


----------



## Eye In The Sky

GK .Dundas said:


> Well according to the CTV report the Navy has  sailors trained for combat !
> Wow .  Thank God we have such brilliant journalists expounding.on the.world.
> Colour me  well informed and educated. ( about that sarcasm button , anybody?)



Like the CBC guy who did the interview with the HFX skipper and said “going into the Mediterranean, off the coast of Ukraine for example…”


----------



## Kilted

Quirky said:


> If this escalates, maybe NATO will assign the occupation of Kaliningrad to the Canadians? That should keep us engaged without being in the way of the big players.


Now does Germany get it back when this is all over?


----------



## Zipperhead99

What many on here have been saying all along









						Russian generals are dying in Ukraine because they keep going near the front hoping to rescue the invasion, Western officials say
					

Western officials said that "because things are going badly" in the invasion of Ukraine, top officers are taking risks that end in their deaths.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## Zipperhead99

Also not surprising as Putin tries to get this train wreck back on the rails









						Japan Spotted Loaded-Up Russian Amphibious Warships That May Be Headed To Ukraine
					

The ships could be part of a growing initiative by Russia to find reinforcements for its stalled invasion of Ukraine.




					www.thedrive.com


----------



## Quirky

Kilted said:


> Now does Germany get it back when this is all over?


Depends how well they convene. 

I wouldn’t mind seeing a piece of Canada in Europe, however that’s not always a good thing depending who is going down with the ship in Ottawa.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

"borrowed" from Tanknet

Russian Kombat Kitchens -

(rinky dink translation)



In the course of a special military operation, logistic support personnel organize uninterrupted cooking, baking bread, washing personnel, repairing and refueling equipment in the field.

Particular attention is paid to the issues of providing for troops operating at a considerable distance from temporary deployment and deployment points.

Deployed mobile mechanized bakeries are capable of baking up to 6 tons per day each, which makes it possible to provide both military personnel and the local population with bread.

Each bakery is able to start baking bread an hour after being deployed at a new location.

Also, for relaxation and personal hygiene, mobile field baths are deployed, designed for washing personnel in the field. The capacity of each bath is more than 30 people per hour.

High mobility allows you to quickly change the location of the bath for the implementation of washing personnel. The bath is mounted on the chassis of a cross-country truck. Also, a diesel generator set is mounted on the chassis, which allows the bath to be launched offline, and a pumping station, with the help of which it is possible to draw water from natural sources with further purification for use when washing personnel.

One of the most important issues of logistics is the organization of repair and refueling of equipment.

Specialists of the fuel and lubricants service organized refueling of wheeled and tracked vehicles at each filling point using the latest automobile fuelers based on KamAZ vehicles, with the help of which it is possible to simultaneously refuel 10 units of equipment. This method of refueling will allow several times to reduce the refueling time.


----------



## MilEME09

NATO is busy collecting data


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504639970690183203


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Colin Parkinson said:


> "borrowed" from Tanknet
> 
> Russian Kombat Kitchens -
> 
> (rinky dink translation)
> 
> 
> 
> In the course of a special military operation, logistic support personnel organize uninterrupted cooking, baking bread, washing personnel, repairing and refueling equipment in the field.
> 
> Particular attention is paid to the issues of providing for troops operating at a considerable distance from temporary deployment and deployment points.
> 
> Deployed mobile mechanized bakeries are capable of baking up to 6 tons per day each, which makes it possible to provide both military personnel and the local population with bread.
> 
> Each bakery is able to start baking bread an hour after being deployed at a new location.
> 
> Also, for relaxation and personal hygiene, mobile field baths are deployed, designed for washing personnel in the field. The capacity of each bath is more than 30 people per hour.
> 
> High mobility allows you to quickly change the location of the bath for the implementation of washing personnel. The bath is mounted on the chassis of a cross-country truck. Also, a diesel generator set is mounted on the chassis, which allows the bath to be launched offline, and a pumping station, with the help of which it is possible to draw water from natural sources with further purification for use when washing personnel.
> 
> One of the most important issues of logistics is the organization of repair and refueling of equipment.
> 
> Specialists of the fuel and lubricants service organized refueling of wheeled and tracked vehicles at each filling point using the latest automobile fuelers based on KamAZ vehicles, with the help of which it is possible to simultaneously refuel 10 units of equipment. This method of refueling will allow several times to reduce the refueling time.


Jesus...we're all these guys on leave for the last 3 weeks?


----------



## RangerRay

Sounds like Vlad is calling for Russia to purge its oligarchs. 









						Exodus of Private Jets Out of Russia as Putin Calls for 'Self-Purification'
					

Twitter users have speculated that oligarchs are fleeing to safety, fearing reprisals from Vladimir Putin, who appears to doubt their loyalty to him.




					www.newsweek.com


----------



## Eaglelord17

tomydoom said:


> Kevin, I absolutely agree with you.  I am always baffled by Putin's obsession with the west, at the cost of ignoring that challenge of China.


The West is the group actively trying to destroy him. If he didn’t have nukes we would have a long time ago. 

The West is also the area he can expand into to complete/restore the Russian Empire/USSR and still receive some support for due to how many ethnic Russians are in those areas. 

Finally the West is the area he can expand into to increase his power, there is no where to turn or take over eastward. China to the South, US to the East, Japan to the South-East, maybe Mongolia but that doesn’t have anything worthwhile. Ukraine? They have a ton of industry, ton of resources, sea access, and similar mentalities.

If Putin had done this in 2014 instead of his Eastern war and seizing Chimea we would likely be looking at a largely restored USSR today instead of the resistance he is facing (and potentially losing to).


----------



## Prairie canuck

Ukraine's secret weapon


----------



## tomydoom

Eaglelord17 said:


> The West is the group actively trying to destroy him. If he didn’t have nukes we would have a long time ago.
> 
> The West is also the area he can expand into to complete/restore the Russian Empire/USSR and still receive some support for due to how many ethnic Russians are in those areas.
> 
> Finally the West is the area he can expand into to increase his power, there is no where to turn or take over eastward. China to the South, US to the East, Japan to the South-East, maybe Mongolia but that doesn’t have anything worthwhile. Ukraine? They have a ton of industry, ton of resources, sea access, and similar mentalities.
> 
> If Putin had done this in 2014 instead of his Eastern war and seizing Chimea we would likely be looking at a largely restored USSR today instead of the resistance he is facing (and potentially losing to).



When has the west actively tried to destroy Russia, when it wasn't in reaction to Russian aggression towards Russia's neighbours.   Please provide a concrete example, beyond our hitherto tepid sanctions and moral outrage. Through the use of military force on neigbouring countries and troll farms to undermine our social cohesion, Russia has consistently been the country  trying to destroy others.

As Kevin and others have pointed out China plays the multigenerational long game, eventually they will want to regain the parts of Siberia that were formerly Chinese..  They are biding their time.  He would be better sticking to his knitting, and improving his economy, rather than playing silly bugger in other peoples yards.  Sustainable power comes from wealth, as Russia is now being reminded.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some highlights from yesterday's end-of-day UKR Pres statement ....


> ... New Russian conscripts have been taken prisoner.  Among them are those who refuse to return to Russia. And there are many who are not even mentioned in Russia. They don't even try to take them back.  Their death notifications have been sent to their families although they are in captivity and alive.  All Russians who can hear me now, speak about it. Tell it in Russia ...





> ... I am also grateful to President Biden for his new and effective support for our country. Please, understand: I can't reveal all the details of this support package and others to you. Because this is our tactic. Our defense. When the enemy does not know what to expect from us. Just as they did not know what would await them after February 24. Didn't know what we had for the defense and how we were preparing to face the attack.  The occupiers thought they were going to Ukraine, which they had seen before, in 2014-2015. Which they constantly corrupted and which they were not afraid of. But we are different ...





> ... This is a special task for the National Bank of Ukraine, for people's deputies and our government officials.  I instructed to find such a legislative opportunity for the state to guarantee 100% of deposits in Ukrainian banks. 100%. Not part, as now, as always, but 100%.  The whole deposit. In any bank of our state. So that people do not lose money and are not afraid of it under any circumstances ...


... and today's tote board, courtesy of UKR mil int


----------



## The Bread Guy

Heh, heh, heh ...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504464863510335488"Track Changes" version attached 
Russia's response?

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504515985449046016


----------



## The Bread Guy

What RUS's MoD is briefing as of last night & this morning (their time) ....


----------



## Halifax Tar

The Bread Guy said:


> Heh, heh, heh ...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504464863510335488"Track Changes" version attached
> Russia's response?
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504515985449046016



I kinda wish they'd called out our tiny military too... Anything to help the cause


----------



## Remius

With all the accusations of and actual war crimes, how does Russia extract itself and rejoin the world after all of this? Putin has dug a hole he will never get out of.


----------



## MilEME09

Remius said:


> With all the accusations of and actual war crimes, how does Russia extract itself and rejoin the world after all of this? Putin has dug a hole he will never get out of.


Russia will not be allowed back to the table if Putin is involved in government in any way, shape or form.


----------



## OldSolduer

MilEME09 said:


> Russia will not be allowed back to the table if Putin is involved in government in any way, shape or form.


There is only one way to rid Russia of Putin and it won't be any Western power that does it. It will come from within, probably from someone close and somewhat trusted. His bodyguards maybe. Maybe one of the oligarchs who sees the opportunity to rescue Russian honour and be the hero?


----------



## The Bread Guy

No legs?  No problem - this from the UKR General Staff info-machine (via FB) ....


> An incredible person - Vasyl Shtefko from the village of Kushnytsia, Irshava district (Transcarpathia region).
> A 55-year old man without both legs (!!!) went to the frontline to beat the enemy!
> 
> Vasyl Shtefko from Kushnytsia came to the 128th Brigade in order to beat russians who became invaders, destroy our infrastructure, kill civilians and behave themselves worse than nazis. In 2004, when working in Russia, Mr. Stefko lost both his legs and returned to his home Kushnytsia on crutches. And when Russia invaded Ukraine, he could not stay at home. “I could not sleep two nights long when I saw, what was happening”, - Vasyl says. “Just could not stay at home, gathered my personal things and went to the military enlistment office. I confess now, I lied to the commandment there, told them I got only one prosthesis. And applied to the 128th Brigade.”
> 
> I served in the army before, I can shoot, I drive well. People who don't see dentures don't even know that don't have legs. Here I am a sergeant and a driver, I serve in the fire support company. My father also "illegally" got to the front during World War II. He was 15 years old, but he said he was 18 and went to war. My wife and 11-year-old daughter are waiting for me at home. They are worried, but also proud that I am defending the country… »
> 
> Vasyl Shtefko from Kushnytsia is an illustration for two categories of people. First, for those guys who sit in the rear and come up with any reasons and arguments to stay there (they "forgot" that defending the country is not a desire or a right, but a citizen's duty stipulated by the Constitution).
> 
> And, secondly, for the russians. It is impossible to defeat a country were such people are willing to defend.
> 
> The time will come, and Vasyl Shtefko will trample a two-headed chicken on the Russian coat of arms with his prostheses!


----------



## KevinB

Remius said:


> With all the accusations of and actual war crimes, how does Russia extract itself and rejoin the world after all of this? Putin has dug a hole he will never get out of.


The same way German and Japan did -- with some leaders on the end of a noose...


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> No legs?  No problem - this from the UKR General Staff info-machine (via FB) ....


Universality of service...
   The right way


----------



## tomydoom

OldSolduer said:


> There is only one way to rid Russia of Putin and it won't be any Western power that does it. It will come from within, probably from someone close and somewhat trusted. His bodyguards maybe. Maybe one of the oligarchs who sees the opportunity to rescue Russian honour and be the hero their bank accounts and recover their yachts and football teams.


FTFY


----------



## Spencer100

tomydoom said:


> FTFY


If ending the war takes getting them back their boats and teams. I say let's go.


----------



## tomydoom

Spencer100 said:


> If ending the war takes getting them back their boats and teams. I say let's go.


To be clear, I don't care what their motivation is. If that's what motivates them, and I believe it is, than so be it.


----------



## RangerRay

MilEME09 said:


> Russia will not be allowed back to the table if Putin is involved in government in any way, shape or form.


I don’t know about that. It wasn’t long after Tianamin Square that we jumped back into bed with Beijing. In that case, there was no regime change and they reversed their political liberalism.


----------



## OldSolduer

RangerRay said:


> I don’t know about that. It wasn’t long after Tianamin Square that we jumped back into bed with Beijing. In that case, there was no regime change and they reversed their political liberalism.


Because we get cheap goods from China. Business is business and why would you allow those pesky morals and ethics to enter the chat?


----------



## The Bread Guy

RangerRay said:


> I don’t know about that. It wasn’t long after Tianamin Square that we jumped back into bed with Beijing. In that case, there was no regime change and they reversed their political liberalism.


They were - and continue to be - generally a more closed, tightly-controlled regime (esp. re:  info from outside) than Russia is, even with recent Russian clamping down.  Way back, some said "hey, Hong Kong'll help make China a more open place over time because of all the commerce," but that doesn't seem to have happened, either - seems a bit of the opposite (China making Hong Kong a less open place).


----------



## TheProfessional

Blackadder1916 said:


> Well, I did write ". . . and probably anywhere else in the world you'd like to drive . . . ", so I took it as a given.


As a Québécois, no argument from me. I'm actually not sure which place has roads in worst conditions right now with spring upon us, Québec or Kyiv? 🤔 Close call...


----------



## Czech_pivo

TheProfessional said:


> As a Québécois, no argument from me. I'm actually not sure which place has roads in worst conditions right now with spring upon us, Québec or Kyiv? 🤔 Close call...


Have you ever driven in the city of Detroit, lol?


----------



## tomydoom

Czech_pivo said:


> Have you ever driven in the city of Detroit, lol?


Funny you should mention that, the two cities where I have had my car disabled by a pothole are Montreal and Detroit.


----------



## WLSC

TheProfessional said:


> As a Québécois, no argument from me. I'm actually not sure which place has roads in worst conditions right now with spring upon us, Québec or Kyiv? 🤔 Close call...


When I go in Montreal, I always considering deflate my tires.  Forestery roads, Montreal streets, same thing 🤓


----------



## Czech_pivo

tomydoom said:


> Funny you should mention that, the two cities where I have had my car disabled by a pothole are Montreal and Detroit.


Off topic but...

Detroit - have been a passenger in a car twice where we came out of the restaurant (in 'Mexicantown') and in a bar (Wheelers - Spencer100 knows the place) and the car was gone, never to be seen again.

Had an Uncle have his car striped and burnt on the side of I94 on a sunny Saturday afternoon on the way to a family wedding. He got a flat tire - pothole on the highway - pulled over, got out, dressed in a suit and a passerby stopped to take him to a garage for the tow truck to pull the car to the garage. In the 30mins he and my Aunt were gone, they stripped the car of the remaining 3 tires, the jack and spare and the wedding gift from the truck and set the car on fire.  Having CDN plates probably didn't help.


----------



## TheProfessional

The Bread Guy said:


> Some highlights from yesterday's end-of-day UKR Pres statement ....
> 
> 
> 
> ... and today's tote board, courtesy of UKR mil int
> View attachment 69539


Man those Ukrainian Int casualty estimates are really high. And they keep increasing steadily at like several hundreds a day. Didnt the Soviet lose 15 k during the entirety of the Afghan war over a decade? No doubt they have taken bigger losses than expected in Ukraine but I doubt it's in the 14k range after only 3 weeks. You could probably cut that number in half to get a more accurate figure and even then. I understand that these numbers are purposefully inflated to boost Ukrainian moral though. Not that we're gonna get an accurate casualty number from the Russians either, so who knows really.

Personally, I trust US int sources as more reliable, and I Believe they're estimating Russian casualties at around 7 k. Still heavy numbers for this war oops I mean special military operation.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Trouble in paradise?








						Top ex-Kremlin official quits post after condemning Ukraine war
					

A former Russian deputy prime minister who spoke out against the Kremlin's actions in Ukraine has quit as chair of a prestigious foundation after a lawmaker accused him of a "national betrayal" and demanded his dismissal.




					www.reuters.com
				











						Russian state TV abruptly cuts away mid-sentence from Putin speaking at rally
					

State media typically cover Putin’s every public utterance from start to finish




					nationalpost.com


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504802752538415104


----------



## KevinB

TheProfessional said:


> Man those Ukrainian Int casualty estimates are really high. And they keep increasing steadily at like several hundreds a day. Didnt the Soviet lose 15 k during the entirety of the Afghan war over a decade? No doubt they have taken bigger losses than expected in Ukraine but I doubt it's in the 14k range after only 3 weeks. You could probably cut that number in half to get a more accurate figure and even then. I understand that these numbers are purposefully inflated to boost Ukrainian moral though. Not that we're gonna get an accurate casualty number from the Russians either, so who knows really.
> 
> Personally, I trust US int sources as more reliable, and I Believe they're estimating Russian casualties at around 7 k. Still heavy numbers for this war oops I mean special military operation.


I believe US Int is publicly downplaying the RF casualties for several reasons.
   I believe the UKR figures are actually fairly accurate, and that RF casualties are now accelerating.   
 The vast majority of Russian pre Invasion forces are now incapable of offensive combat action.


----------



## TheProfessional

KevinB said:


> I believe US Int is publicly downplaying the RF casualties for several reasons.


Interesting. What might those reasons be?


----------



## KevinB

TheProfessional said:


> Interesting. What might those reasons be?


If I had to guess 
1) Everyone loves an underdog 
2) Not wanting Russia etc to fully know the scope of our abilities to see and hear.
There could be others.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504861665434779651


----------



## OceanBonfire

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504828470299353089


----------



## RangerRay

There’s a lot of chatter about Putin wanting to recreate “USSR 2.0”, but other than the odd fluttering of the Soviet banner, everything about Putin’s Russia appears neo-Tsarist. The symbols, the authoritarianism, the absolutism, the imperialism.   A video imbedded in this link displays this stunningly. There is no Politburo to keep the General Secretary in line. Putin is beholden to Putin much as the Tsar is beholden to the Tsar. 









						Jen Gerson: On Big Macs and empires
					

Old truisms about the liberal world order, and the nature of war itself are challenged as McDonald's stops operations in Moscow.




					theline.substack.com
				









From the article:



> It's not Communism, but rather an imperial Tsarist revival that combines totalitarianism, military conquest and orthodox Christianity — all of it subverted to the autocratic government's will.



That doesn’t look or sound like communism at all. All that’s missing is Tsar Vladimir. 

I believe the use of the Soviet flag is being used by the Russians as a symbol to attempt to show unity with the Ukrainian people. I remember an incident during the annexation of Crimea when Little Green Men surrounded a Ukrainian naval base. An admiral had the sailors formed up and had the fleet’s old Soviet colours brought out. He then dared the Little Green Men to fire on the Hammer and Sickle as he marched the sailors out of the base without surrendering. The Little Green Men let them go. 

I think Putin Tsar in every way but name.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504864392730578945


----------



## KevinB

RangerRay said:


> There’s a lot of chatter about Putin wanting to recreate “USSR 2.0”, but other than the odd fluttering of the Soviet banner, everything about Putin’s Russia appears neo-Tsarist. The symbols, the authoritarianism, the absolutism, the imperialism.   A video imbedded in this link displays this stunningly. There is no Politburo to keep the General Secretary in line. Putin is beholden to Putin much as the Tsar is beholden to the Tsar.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Jen Gerson: On Big Macs and empires
> 
> 
> Old truisms about the liberal world order, and the nature of war itself are challenged as McDonald's stops operations in Moscow.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> theline.substack.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> From the article:
> 
> 
> 
> That doesn’t look or sound like communism at all. All that’s missing is Tsar Vladimir.
> 
> I believe the use of the Soviet flag is being used by the Russians as a symbol to attempt to show unity with the Ukrainian people. I remember an incident during the annexation of Crimea when Little Green Men surrounded a Ukrainian naval base. An admiral had the sailors formed up and had the fleet’s old Soviet colours brought out. He then dared the Little Green Men to fire on the Hammer and Sickle as he marched the sailors out of the base without surrendering. The Little Green Men let them go.
> 
> I think Putin Tsar in every way but name.


Yes, but...

I agree with you that he is emulating the Tsar in terms of control - but he is pushing the USSR 2.0 as a manner of returning to the status and influence of the heyday of the Soviet Union as a True Super Power


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504861665434779651


If true, a perfect time to marshall forces and counter-attack.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest message from UKR's President:  enough with the bureaucracy & shenanigans ....


> ... War is not a time for bureaucrats and careerists from different departments to complicate the provision of goods for people. We want to simplify the passage of goods that Ukrainians need now through customs as much as possible.  If this requires the removal of taxes and excises during martial law, we are ready to do so. If it is necessary to remove customs officers who do not understand the tasks of wartime to act quickly, we will do so.  Our borders must be open to everything Ukrainians need. I am waiting for the appropriate decisions by the end of the day. And then - the support from people's deputies ...


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> If true, a perfect time to marshall forces and counter-attack.


May explain their push near Kherson


----------



## TheProfessional

Czech_pivo said:


> Have you ever driven in the city of Detroit, lol?



No, but my hometown once made CAA's list of the top 10 worst roads in the province:

Les 10 pires routes du Québec en 2018

Coming in at #10, Boulevard St Joseph in Hull ! So proud of my town !  I drive down that Boulevard all the time! 🥲


----------



## Czech_pivo

What will be interesting about that push to Kherson is again the bridges over the Dnieper. 

It becomes a question this time of, will the Russians blow the bridge at Kherson in order to help preserve their gains out of Crimea.  There is only 1 other bridge between Kherson and the Nuc plant at Zapo. Not sure if the Ukrainians have the bridging material necessary to breach the Dnieper if the bridges are blown.  Easy way for the Russians to sit back, consolidate their gains on the east bank of the river and look to hold that area against any counter-attacks across the river from the west or down from the north.  



MilEME09 said:


> May explain their push near Kherson


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> What will be interesting about that push to Kherson is again the bridges over the Dnieper.
> 
> It becomes a question this time of, will the Russians blow the bridge at Kherson in order to help preserve their gains out of Crimea.  There is only 1 other bridge between Kherson and the Nuc plant at Zapo. Not sure if the Ukrainians have the bridging material necessary to breach the Dnieper if the bridges are blown.  Easy way for the Russians to sit back, consolidate their gains on the east bank of the river and look to hold that area against any counter-attacks across the river from the west or down from the north.


Well many NATO units have bridging materials...
   I'm not sure Russia could blow the bridge - less in terms of ability - but more in terms of getting timely command guidance to allow them...


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> What will be interesting about that push to Kherson is again the bridges over the Dnieper.
> 
> It becomes a question this time of, will the Russians blow the bridge at Kherson in order to help preserve their gains out of Crimea.  There is only 1 other bridge between Kherson and the Nuc plant at Zapo. Not sure if the Ukrainians have the bridging material necessary to breach the Dnieper if the bridges are blown.  Easy way for the Russians to sit back, consolidate their gains on the east bank of the river and look to hold that area against any counter-attacks across the river from the west or down from the north.


Depends what happens in the city, rumor has it many territorial defense forces melted back into the population when the city fell. If a Ukrainian attack happens, and a uprising, Russia may be forced out before they can. If Kherson is liberated, Russia will have to divert forces from Mariupol in order to stabilize the line. This could then this them out enough that UA forces can start pushing to the city.

All hypothetical right now but, one possibility


----------



## Good2Golf

TheProfessional said:


> No, but my hometown once made CAA's list of the top 10 worst roads in the province:
> 
> Les 10 pires routes du Québec en 2018
> 
> Coming in at #10, Boulevard St Joseph in Hull ! So proud of my town !  I drive down that Boulevard all the time! 🥲


Boul. Decarie: Eh, tiens-toé ma bière, caaaa’lise! 

😆


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

KevinB said:


> Allegedly footage of Russians being ambushed somewhere in Ukraine.
> Pretty sloppy drills and deplorable weapons handling...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504573184116408320


Yah I would thank him for lasing everybody LOL


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Yah I would thank him for lasing everybody LOL


I think we know who accounted for 10% of the RF casualties...

I actually had to watch it a few times, as the first two times I was pretty sure he ND'd one of his buddies midway through the move.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

We've found the enemy's beaten zone and it's actually us 🤣


----------



## KevinB

In Unity is Our Strength

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504892532643315720


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504893240046231556


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504886184618700806


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504839460529360896


----------



## KevinB

NYT
March 18, 2022

David E. Sanger
​By labeling Putin a ‘war criminal,’ Biden personalizes the Ukraine conflict.​


Image





On Thursday, President Biden called Vladimir V. Putin “a murderous dictator, a pure thug who is waging an immoral war.”Credit...Kenny Holston for The New York Times
WASHINGTON — When President Biden declared to reporters on Wednesday that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia was a “war criminal,” he was speaking from the heart, his aides said, reacting to the wrenching images of civilians being dragged from ruins of buildings shelled by Russian forces.

But he was also personalizing the conflict, in a way past presidents have avoided at moments of crisis with the United States’ leading nuclear-armed adversary for most of the past 75 years. And his remark underscored how personal condemnation has become policy, as Mr. Biden and his top aides frame Mr. Putin to Americans, Russians and the world as an indiscriminate killer who should be standing trial at The Hague instead of running a faded superpower.

Mr. Biden amplified his attacks on Thursday, calling Mr. Putin “a murderous dictator, a pure thug who is waging an immoral war against the people of Ukraine.” His secretary of state, Antony J. Blinken, chimed in, saying: “Personally, I agree. Intentionally targeting civilians is a war crime.”
But what began as a visceral reaction by Mr. Biden also appears to reflect a strategic decision that branding Mr. Putin as a war criminal supports the administration’s case as it simultaneously tries to keep the Western alliance unified — amid differing views in Europe over the wisdom of cornering the Russian leader — and attempts to pressure China not to bail Mr. Putin out of his economic crisis and military mistakes.
And Mr. Biden’s comments came after three weeks in which the United States and its allies piled sanctions on Russia that the administration insisted were designed to force Mr. Putin to withdraw his forces from Ukraine. But diplomats and intelligence officials from several countries say those sanctions are seen by Mr. Putin as an effort to stoke Russian unrest, turning both wealthy oligarchs and ordinary Russians against his rule.
The White House says that “regime change” in Russia is not on Washington’s strategic agenda. But in past cases when presidents have called national leaders war criminals — Saddam Hussein in Iraq, or Bashar al-Assad of Syria — it has frequently been linked to an effort, covert or overt, to drive them from office.


----------



## KevinB

and more DarthPutin trolling


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504919679298678789


----------



## KevinB

Kinds of disappointed it was not the Ukrainian Tractor regiment and the Russians managed to get them out...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504886120441651203


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504771300249776143

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504826150056607744


----------



## KevinB

Almost made it...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504845633617899524
nope


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504906047810637828


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504831775830335488


----------



## Remius

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504771300249776143


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504881580694970369


----------



## KevinB

Sadly the Russians seem to be learning 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504913594609250309


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504893240046231556


The photo of the children really got to me.  There is so much to unpack in it.

Soldiers going off to fight for their Country, Children waving at their National Heroes.  

Innocence and War all wrapped up in one shot.


----------



## WLSC

KevinB said:


> I think we know who accounted for 10% of the RF casualties...
> 
> I actually had to watch it a few times, as the first two times I was pretty sure he ND'd one of his buddies midway through the move.


Now!  The UKR most have piss about that ND.  The RF blow the surprise of the ambush 🤡


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504940579863552000


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504943600135598081


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> NYT
> March 18, 2022
> 
> David E. Sanger
> ​By labeling Putin a ‘war criminal,’ Biden personalizes the Ukraine conflict.​
> 
> 
> Image
> 
> 
> 
> 
> On Thursday, President Biden called Vladimir V. Putin “a murderous dictator, a pure thug who is waging an immoral war.”Credit...Kenny Holston for The New York Times
> WASHINGTON — When President Biden declared to reporters on Wednesday that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia was a “war criminal,” he was speaking from the heart, his aides said, reacting to the wrenching images of civilians being dragged from ruins of buildings shelled by Russian forces.
> 
> But he was also personalizing the conflict, in a way past presidents have avoided at moments of crisis with the United States’ leading nuclear-armed adversary for most of the past 75 years. And his remark underscored how personal condemnation has become policy, as Mr. Biden and his top aides frame Mr. Putin to Americans, Russians and the world as an indiscriminate killer who should be standing trial at The Hague instead of running a faded superpower.
> 
> Mr. Biden amplified his attacks on Thursday, calling Mr. Putin “a murderous dictator, a pure thug who is waging an immoral war against the people of Ukraine.” His secretary of state, Antony J. Blinken, chimed in, saying: “Personally, I agree. Intentionally targeting civilians is a war crime.”
> But what began as a visceral reaction by Mr. Biden also appears to reflect a strategic decision that branding Mr. Putin as a war criminal supports the administration’s case as it simultaneously tries to keep the Western alliance unified — amid differing views in Europe over the wisdom of cornering the Russian leader — and attempts to pressure China not to bail Mr. Putin out of his economic crisis and military mistakes.
> And Mr. Biden’s comments came after three weeks in which the United States and its allies piled sanctions on Russia that the administration insisted were designed to force Mr. Putin to withdraw his forces from Ukraine. But diplomats and intelligence officials from several countries say those sanctions are seen by Mr. Putin as an effort to stoke Russian unrest, turning both wealthy oligarchs and ordinary Russians against his rule.
> The White House says that “regime change” in Russia is not on Washington’s strategic agenda. But in past cases when presidents have called national leaders war criminals — Saddam Hussein in Iraq, or Bashar al-Assad of Syria — it has frequently been linked to an effort, covert or overt, to drive them from office.



Meanwhile, Putin be like Mr. Orange:


----------



## TacticalTea

Humphrey Bogart said:


> The photo of the children really got to me.  There is so much to unpack in it.
> 
> Soldiers going off to fight for their Country, Children waving at their National Heroes.
> 
> Innocence and War all wrapped up in one shot.


So I happen to be listening to movie soundtracks today and I came across Kevin's comment with the video and the picture (that I had saved the moment I saw it a few days into the war) just as the ''Not in vain'' part of Kingsman's soundtrack was playing, arguably its most emotional segment. Yeah... lots of onions were suddenly cut in that moment.



The Bread Guy said:


> Latest message from UKR's President:  enough with the bureaucracy & shenanigans ....


If I was in Cabinet right now... seems like the right moment to declare a (warranted, this time) international emergency IAW the Emergencies Act. There's a few things that need fast-tracked.



TheProfessional said:


> No, but my hometown once made *CAA*'s list of the top 10 worst roads in the province:
> 
> Les 10 pires routes du Québec en 2018
> 
> Coming in at #10, Boulevard St Joseph in Hull ! So proud of my town !  I drive down that Boulevard all the time! 🥲


For a split second I thought you were Ukrainian and your hometown was giving the 41st *C*ombined *A*rms *A*rmy much trouble...


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504940579863552000


Do those declarations give those countries' governments the right to act, though? Last thing we'd want is to have a few countries moving ahead while others are still embroiled in legislative hurdles.

For those where it may apply (ie, not Canada and the UK, as the Crown can use its military force as it wishes AFAIK), something akin to an AUMF might be in order.

Expanding upon that; was Article 5 internalized to member-states' legislation? In other words, can executive governments automatically respond or would they still need to go through legislative processes, Article 5 notwithstanding?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504939089761558531
And just like that, I suddenly have much less sympathy for Armenia. #TeamBayraktar


----------



## TacticalTea

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504938852909293570
ID on the 8th Army Command elements hit yesterday.


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504927285861916684
Russian FRP at work again.


----------



## MilEME09

Remius said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504927285861916684
> Russian FRP at work again.


I'll say this for the Russian army, sure has a lot of opportunity for advancement


----------



## Skysix

Remius said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504927285861916684



Time for a deck of cards. Putin as ace of spades natch.


----------



## Dana381




----------



## Zipperhead99

MilEME09 said:


> I'll say this for the Russian army, sure has a lot of opportunity for advancement


"Here's to a bloody war or a sickly season."


----------



## Dana381

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504893240046231556



Wow, right in the feels!


----------



## TacticalTea

Zipperhead99 said:


> "Here's to a bloody war or a sickly season."


And they've had both, how convenient!


----------



## Zipperhead99

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504906047810637828


Just to add to that









						Ukrainian Ambushes Exacerbate Russia's Logistics Woes
					

Ukrainian forces may be identifying and destroying supply routes behind the front lines.




					nationalinterest.org


----------



## MilEME09

ISW seems to have very little information on the situation around Kherson


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504950017542533131


----------



## The Bread Guy

More on the Poles saying they'll propose a peacekeeping mission @ the next NATO summit ...








						Poland to propose Ukraine peacekeeping mission at NATO summit, says PM
					

Poland will formally submit a proposal for a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine at the next NATO summit, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Friday.




					www.reuters.com
				




I'd love to be optimistic, but isn't there supposed to be a peace where EVERYONE agrees to stop needed before sending such a team in?  

Or are these folks envisioning a peace-_making_ mission?  Which would be a tiny semantic step short of war, I guess, but still ...  

We'll see what unfolds.


----------



## Eaglelord17

tomydoom said:


> When has the west actively tried to destroy Russia, when it wasn't in reaction to Russian aggression towards Russia's neighbours.   Please provide a concrete example, beyond our hitherto tepid sanctions and moral outrage. Through the use of military force on neigbouring countries and troll farms to undermine our social cohesion, Russia has consistently been the country  trying to destroy others.
> 
> As Kevin and others have pointed out China plays the multigenerational long game, eventually they will want to regain the parts of Siberia that were formerly Chinese..  They are biding their time.  He would be better sticking to his knitting, and improving his economy, rather than playing silly bugger in other peoples yards.  Sustainable power comes from wealth, as Russia is now being reminded.


I am not supportive of Russia, simply understanding of what its motivations are and why they do certain things. You said you don’t understand why Russia looks Westward, I provided some reasons.

How have we not actively been trying to destroy Russia/USSR for the last 90+ years? We literally had the cold war over it, as well as the subsequent desolation of the USSR and the slow alienation of them in the former Bloc countries. To Russia the slow alienation of it in the former Soviet bloc is a act of aggression. Our sanctions and outrage against them when they make geopolitical moves they view as acts of aggression, especially when we don’t act the same way towards some of our allies (Iraq and Afghanistan, the many invasions of Central America, the attacking of Libya, etc.). Not that I don’t consider many of those acts justifiable, rather simply admitting their is a double standard at play.

If you don’t believe that we are actively trying to influence the public in many countries to think more like us or bring about the downfall of certain governments you need to open your eyes. Russia and China are doing it to us, but we are actively doing it back at them as well. We also have been occupying nations for decades with the hopeful goal of making democracies out of them (though they don't seem to care for it much themselves).

Russia is fairly easy to understand, much like Germany in the 30s it is trying to rebuild their empire. Everything they have done for the last 30 years has been towards that goal. Fortunately for the Ukrainians they are looking more like the Italians when it comes to empire building than the Germans (i.e. happy to invade and take over land when its easy, but the moment they hit real resistance not wanting to engage).

As to why Putin doesn’t focus on China, I suspect when this all started he figured he would roll in, declare USSR/Russian Empire 2.0 and be able to build up more effectively to actually be able to counter China/keep them from being a client state. This invasion may have just done the exact opposite for them, and sped up the process instead. China also isn't actively seeking a regime change in Russia, the West would love to see Putin gone. So in Putin's eyes one is much more of a immediate threat than the other.

Sustainable power does come from wealth, and to Putin, Ukraine is a huge amount of wealth. Full of resources, industry, population, and strategic access (Black Sea). The good news for all of us is that he likely isn't getting his hands on that wealth and instead is going to have what he has bled dry.


----------



## Zipperhead99

MilEME09 said:


> ISW seems to have very little information on the situation around Kherson
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504950017542533131


Russian soldiers now mutilating themselves to avoid Ukraine??  Reminds me of this Family Guy episode


----------



## Booter

Super key question. Peace making vs peacemaking.

My quotes got messed up so I just deleted the message


----------



## Booter

The Bread Guy said:


> More on the Poles saying they'll propose a peacekeeping mission @ the next NATO summit ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Poland to propose Ukraine peacekeeping mission at NATO summit, says PM
> 
> 
> Poland will formally submit a proposal for a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine at the next NATO summit, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Friday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I'd love to be optimistic, but isn't there supposed to be a peace where EVERYONE agrees to stop needed before sending such a team in?
> 
> Or are these folks envisioning a peace-_making_ mission?  Which would be a tiny semantic step short of war, I guess, but still ...
> 
> We'll see what unfolds.


----------



## The Bread Guy

RUS state media (here and here - both Google English translations) announce Donetsk rebels saying (via their media info-machine here) 3 x Americans (naming them) from the Tennessee National Guard (TNG) were killed in the Marinka area near Donetsk.

TNG:  Uh, no ...








						Tennessee National Guard members safe, not in Ukraine despite false Russian reports
					

All three men named in a Russian news report are alive and well — and no U.S. military personnel are currently on orders in Ukraine.



					www.tennessean.com


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> RUS state media (here and here - both Google English translations) announce Donetsk rebels saying 3 x Americans (naming them) from the Tennessee National Guard (TNG) were killed in the Marinka area near Donetsk.
> 
> TNG:  Uh, no ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Tennessee National Guard members safe, not in Ukraine despite false Russian reports
> 
> 
> All three men named in a Russian news report are alive and well — and no U.S. military personnel are currently on orders in Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> www.tennessean.com


I wouldn't believe anything they say, these are the same guys who claimed the killed Walli the day before he actually set foot In Ukraine


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> I wouldn't believe anything they say, these are the same guys who claimed the killed Walli the day before he actually set foot In Ukraine


Like keeping the links for the (not so) few out there that truly believes only one side makes things up - and it's not the Russian side.


----------



## Zipperhead99

Some related articles 









						Russia likely to threaten nuke attacks, says US defense intel chief
					

As Russia's combat losses in Ukraine mount and waves of international sanctions grind down its military production capabilities, Russian President




					americanmilitarynews.com
				












						Polish president says Russian use of chemical weapons in Ukraine would be 'game changer'
					

This article was originally published by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and is reprinted with permission. Polish President Andrzej Duda has said that the




					americanmilitarynews.com
				












						Russian POWs vow to 'rise against' Putin if he doesn't stop Ukraine war
					

Several Russian service members captured in Ukraine appeared for a press conference on Wednesday hosted by Ukraine's Ministry of Internal Affairs, during




					americanmilitarynews.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some Canadian anti-vax/vaccine-hesitant activists seem to like Team Russia's chances .....


> Canada's most famous opponent of vaccine passports isn't too concerned about Russia's attack on its neighbour.
> 
> In an interview with George Iceman on Rumble, Chris Sky slammed Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland for freezing bank accounts of trucking companies involved in the February insurrection in Ottawa.
> 
> "Then all of the sudden, she's leading tens of thousands of people to stand with Ukraine when Canadians couldn't even stand with their own children for last two years," Sky declared.
> 
> He went on to say that Ukraine has been having a civil war for eight years. Then Sky purported that there are "huge swaths of the country that are welcoming this Russian invasion".
> 
> That is not the way it's being reported in the media, which has suggested that Ukrainians are fairly united against the Russian attackers.
> 
> Moreover, Sky claimed that the democratically elected president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, is a "puppet installed by the United States and Israel as a way to have complete control over that country so they can have military presence right on Vladimir Putin's doorstep" ...


#StrangeBedellows


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> Some Canadian anti-vax/vaccine-hesitant activists seem to like Team Russia's chances .....
> 
> #StrangeBedellows


Can we send these people to russia?


----------



## Booter

Zipperhead99 said:


> Some related articles
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia likely to threaten nuke attacks, says US defense intel chief
> 
> 
> As Russia's combat losses in Ukraine mount and waves of international sanctions grind down its military production capabilities, Russian President
> 
> 
> 
> 
> americanmilitarynews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Polish president says Russian use of chemical weapons in Ukraine would be 'game changer'
> 
> 
> This article was originally published by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and is reprinted with permission. Polish President Andrzej Duda has said that the
> 
> 
> 
> 
> americanmilitarynews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian POWs vow to 'rise against' Putin if he doesn't stop Ukraine war
> 
> 
> Several Russian service members captured in Ukraine appeared for a press conference on Wednesday hosted by Ukraine's Ministry of Internal Affairs, during
> 
> 
> 
> 
> americanmilitarynews.com


When I read this stuff about how the nuclear threats are inbound or etc- I have to wonder if this isn’t a reason to act earlier.


----------



## MilEME09

Booter said:


> When I read this stuff about how the nuclear threats are inbound or etc- I have to wonder if this isn’t a reason to act earlier.


Bigger question, we have seen the state of their conventional forces laid bare before us. How well maintained are their nuclear forces?


----------



## Booter

MilEME09 said:


> Bigger question, we have seen the state of their conventional forces laid bare before us. How well maintained are their nuclear forces?


I don’t know what would be worst case scenario. This army in charge of bad nuclear weapons or better ones. 

My understanding of that subject matter is pretty limited however. I’m sure someone has a good answer


----------



## Weinie

MilEME09 said:


> Bigger question, we have seen the state of their conventional forces laid bare before us. How well maintained are their nuclear forces?


It likely doesn't matter that much. To say that their log tail is shyte, or that their C2 is not what we expected, is piffle. They have a lot of nukes, and if even 10% of them get off the ground/through, the world as it currently exists ends.


----------



## Skysix

Russian pilot says Ukraine war is a crime - video goes viral
					

A clip of a Russian pilot's address to his passengers has gone viral on social media as the pilot, whose name is not yet known, said the war with Ukraine




					americanmilitarynews.com


----------



## MilEME09

For you arty nerds, here is what happens when a russian SPG suffers an internal ammo explosion, yes that is the gun sitting by it's self.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504910922988593157


----------



## Prairie canuck

Weinie said:


> It likely doesn't matter that much. To say that their log tail is shyte, or that their C2 is not what we expected, is piffle. They have a lot of nukes, and if even 10% of them get off the ground/through, the world as it currently exists ends.


Knowing this and seeing the regression of the Russian war machine would China not see Putin's next move and somehow move to block him? Don't ask me how they would but doing nothing assures their own destruction.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Have you rotated your tires today?


----------



## RangerRay

The Bread Guy said:


> Some Canadian anti-vax/vaccine-hesitant activists seem to like Team Russia's chances .....
> 
> #StrangeBedellows


Not so strange when you consider that many of the COVID deniers are swimming in the same toxic alternative media ecosystem as Kremlin-owned RT and Sputnik and assorted troll farms based on St. Petersburg that spread this disinformation.


----------



## MilEME09

RangerRay said:


> Not so strange when you consider that many of the COVID deniers are swimming in the same toxic alternative media ecosystem as Kremlin-owned RT and Sputnik and assorted troll farms based on St. Petersburg that spread this disinformation.


Makes you wonder, if we cut off Russia from the internet, how much of it would disappear?


----------



## Furniture

MilEME09 said:


> Makes you wonder, if we cut off Russia from the internet, how much of it would disappear?


Not as much as some would hope... Russia is easy to blame, but government lies, mismanagement, and silliness are more than enough to keep a thriving conspiracy theory based eco-system alive and well.


----------



## TheProfessional

The Bread Guy said:


> Some Canadian anti-vax/vaccine-hesitant activists seem to like Team Russia's chances .....
> 
> #StrangeBedellows


I've said it from the start: Awfully convenient that this whole Freedom Convoy bullshit happens a couple of weeks before Putin launches his "special military operation".

It's no secret that the alt right, anti-vaxxers, populist type movement has been propped up by Russian psyops for years in order to breed discontent in Western countries. I'm sure that if you follow the money on who exactly funded these convoys(not just in Canada but in Europe as well) the trail would lead to some Russian oligarchs/ FSB. Not all of it of course, but I'm sure some of it ( and I'm sure it would be hard to prove).

Breed a little discontent, create a political / social distraction, ensure westerners are divided and more worried about say, the "tyrannical"(🙄) vaccine mandates and trying to overthrow their democratically elected governments than the situation in Ukraine and the odds that there won't be a unified coherent response from the west/NATO when you're invading are greatly increased.


----------



## Furniture

TheProfessional said:


> I've said it from the start: Awfully convenient that this whole Freedom Convoy bullshit happens a couple of weeks before Putin launches his "special military operation".
> 
> It's no secret that the alt right, anti-vaxxers, populist type movement has been propped up by Russian psyops for years in order to breed discontent in Western countries. I'm sure that if you follow the money on who exactly funded these convoys(not just in Canada but in Europe as well) the trail would lead to some Russian oligarchs/ FSB. Not all of it of course, but I'm sure some of it ( and I'm sure it would be hard to prove).
> 
> Breed a little discontent, create a political / social distraction, ensure westerners are divided and more worried about say, the "tyrannical"(🙄) vaccine mandates and trying to overthrow their democratically elected governments than the situation in Ukraine and the odds that there won't be a unified coherent response from the west/NATO when you're invading are greatly increased.


The whole "the convoy is Russia's fault" line of thinking is no better than the convoy's "WEF Great Reset" thinking. 

The West has it's own issues to deal with, but they aren't the topic of this thread. Blaming Russia for all of the West's woes is no better than Russia blaming the West for all of it's woes.


----------



## Kirkhill

Furniture said:


> The whole "the convoy is Russia's fault" line of thinking is no better than the convoy's "WEF Great Reset" thinking.
> 
> The West has it's own issues to deal with, but they aren't the topic of this thread. Blaming Russia for all of the West's woes is no better than Russia blaming the West for all of it's woes.



I'm also of the opinion that the whole point of the exercise is dissension for the sake of dissension.  The points of debate are totally irrelevant.
So long as there is an argument.


----------



## TheProfessional

Furniture said:


> The whole "the convoy is Russia's fault" line of thinking is no better than the convoy's "WEF Great Reset" thinking.
> 
> The West has it's own issues to deal with, but they aren't the topic of this thread. Blaming Russia for all of the West's woes is no better than Russia blaming the West for all of it's woes.


Like I said, I'm not blaming it all on Russia. I'm just saying it's highly probable that at least *some* of the funding for these convoys came from Russian oligarchs/ FSB.

We do have our own issues I agree, but it's no secret that Russia has weaponized information and thus they can help fan the flames on our issues so to speak and it can work to their advantage.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest from the UKR mil int tote board .....

... and from yesterday's end of day RUS MoD updates (attached)


----------



## Eye In The Sky

TheProfessional said:


> Like I said, I'm not blaming it all on Russia. I'm just saying it's highly probable that at least *some* of the funding for these convoys came from Russian oligarchs/ FSB.
> 
> We do have our own issues I agree, but it's no secret that Russia has weaponized information and thus they can help fan the flames on our issues so to speak and it can work to their advantage.


 
Yup;  your post is not out to lunch, IMO.  Anything our (the West) adversaries can do to create chaos in our own backyard, I think they would do.  

As we would in theirs…


----------



## tomydoom

Don’t know if anyone has posted this yet? But it’s gotta sting getting trolled by your own cosmonauts. Hopefully Elon and arrange a return trip for these guys.

Russians board International Space Station in Ukrainian colours Russians board International Space Station in Ukrainian colours


----------



## WLSC

TheProfessional said:


> Like I said, I'm not blaming it all on Russia. I'm just saying it's highly probable that at least *some* of the funding for these convoys came from Russian oligarchs/ FSB.
> 
> We do have our own issues I agree, but it's no secret that Russia has weaponized information and thus they can help fan the flames on our issues so to speak and it can work to their advantage.


I also think about the same thing.  I don’t believe it’s Russia’s fault, we are really good at shooting ourself in the foot repeatedly. But, Russia’s psyops game is very good and that held to steer the pot.  It just take a little bit of everything.


----------



## GR66

Eaglelord17 said:


> I am not supportive of Russia, simply understanding of what its motivations are and why they do certain things. You said you don’t understand why Russia looks Westward, I provided some reasons.
> 
> How have we not actively been trying to destroy Russia/USSR for the last 90+ years? We literally had the cold war over it, as well as the subsequent desolation of the USSR and the slow alienation of them in the former Bloc countries. To Russia the slow alienation of it in the former Soviet bloc is a act of aggression. Our sanctions and outrage against them when they make geopolitical moves they view as acts of aggression, especially when we don’t act the same way towards some of our allies (Iraq and Afghanistan, the many invasions of Central America, the attacking of Libya, etc.). Not that I don’t consider many of those acts justifiable, rather simply admitting their is a double standard at play.
> 
> If you don’t believe that we are actively trying to influence the public in many countries to think more like us or bring about the downfall of certain governments you need to open your eyes. Russia and China are doing it to us, but we are actively doing it back at them as well. We also have been occupying nations for decades with the hopeful goal of making democracies out of them (though they don't seem to care for it much themselves).
> 
> Russia is fairly easy to understand, much like Germany in the 30s it is trying to rebuild their empire. Everything they have done for the last 30 years has been towards that goal. Fortunately for the Ukrainians they are looking more like the Italians when it comes to empire building than the Germans (i.e. happy to invade and take over land when its easy, but the moment they hit real resistance not wanting to engage).
> 
> As to why Putin doesn’t focus on China, I suspect when this all started he figured he would roll in, declare USSR/Russian Empire 2.0 and be able to build up more effectively to actually be able to counter China/keep them from being a client state. This invasion may have just done the exact opposite for them, and sped up the process instead. China also isn't actively seeking a regime change in Russia, the West would love to see Putin gone. So in Putin's eyes one is much more of a immediate threat than the other.
> 
> Sustainable power does come from wealth, and to Putin, Ukraine is a huge amount of wealth. Full of resources, industry, population, and strategic access (Black Sea). The good news for all of us is that he likely isn't getting his hands on that wealth and instead is going to have what he has bled dry.


I'm going to have to disagree with you fundamentally on your underlying argument.

"How have we not actively been trying to destroy Russia/USSR for the last 90+ years? We literally had the cold war over it, as well as the subsequent desolation of the USSR and the slow alienation of them in the former Bloc countries."

Right off the bat I think your initial characterization of the NATO - Warsaw Pact conflict is totally inaccurate.  In 1945 the USSR seized control of the Eastern European countries and through military occupation forced unwanted communist governments upon their populations.  The USSR posed a credible military threat against other European countries during the post war period.

In the West by comparison the countries liberated by the Allied military powers were granted their independence and permitted to have their own democratically elected governments.  NATO was created as a defensive alliance to protect Europe from further Soviet military expansion.  

You are granting equivalency between Soviet/Russian efforts to subjugate their bordering states by force and Western support for democratically elected governments.  Name a European country where NATO tanks have rolled in to force a pro-Western government on the population.  

Contrast that with Soviet/Russian military interventions to exert control over foreign populations:

Hungarian Revolution of 1956
Invasion of Czechoslovakia 1968
Martial Law in Poland (1981 to 1983) to counter the Solidarity Movement
Transnistria (1992)
Abkhazia (1992-1993)
Civil War in Tajikistan (1992-1997)
First and Second Chechen Wars (1994-1996 and 1999-2009)
Russo-Georgian War (2008)
Crimea/Donetsk/Luhansk (2014)
Ukraine (2022)
Have there been questionable/deplorable actions by the US and it's allies as well since the end of WWII?  Certainly.  The US/British backed coup against Mossadegh in Iran in 1953 and support for various brutal Central American governments particularly stand out, but I just don't see how you can equate monetary, moral and political support for democratic uprisings in former Soviet-occupied countries with "actively trying to destroy Russia/USSR for the last 90+ years".  

The Soviet/Russian GOVERNMENTS have made themselves enemies of the liberal West by their brutal and expansionist military actions and use of military force against unarmed civilians in numerous occasions with their unlawful invasion of Ukraine just being the latest.  However, despite that not once has the West ever called for the destruction of Russia as a state or expressed any desire to occupy that country.  Have we taken non-military steps to support those within Russia that support a change the actions of their government?  Yes.  But that is a far cry from actively trying to destroy Russia as a state.


----------



## lenaitch

RangerRay said:


> Not so strange when you consider that many of the COVID deniers are swimming in the same toxic alternative media ecosystem as Kremlin-owned RT and Sputnik and assorted troll farms based on St. Petersburg that spread this disinformation.


It seems EKOS found a similar linkage.









						How vaccination status might predict views on the Russian invasion of Ukraine
					

New poll indicates that “vaccine refusers are much more sympathetic to Russia.”




					www.thestar.com


----------



## suffolkowner

The things we don’t know
					

Putin’s war in Ukraine has been described by many as the first live-streamed war, and tuning into Twitter or other social media it certainly feels that way. While we have earlier seen embedde…




					corporalfrisk.com
				




corporal frisk take on the information coming out of the Russian war


----------



## Brad Sallows

> How have we not actively been trying to destroy Russia/USSR for the last 90+ years? We literally had the cold war over it, as well as the subsequent desolation of the USSR and the slow alienation of them in the former Bloc countries. To Russia the slow alienation of it in the former Soviet bloc is a act of aggression.



Sure, that's how some of them think.  But before 1939, the USSR was a country east of Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, etc.  They aren't entitled to a "bloc" or an "empire".  And they alienated those countries approximately the day they invaded them.  I can't help them with their fucked-up thinking, and no-one should play along.


----------



## Mills Bomb

I don't want to put blame on Russia for the convoy of covid conspiracies either unless it's deserved but I wouldn't be completely surprised to see a proven link between the protest and a Russian disinformation campaign eventually come to the surface.

It's definitely a strange coincidence this was the first protest we've seen organized by white supremacist elements (Pat King) and with Nazi flags.

I'm yet to meet someone in Canada who truly believes in National Socialism in an accurate WWII NSDAP context, most "neo-nazi's" tend to just be extremely ignorant people as opposed to true believers in that form of government or society. And yet right before Putin's campaign against "nazism" we see the swastika flying on parliament hill without much context prior to the invasion kicking off.

Was it all just a coincidence that idiots here aided Russia in some ways? Is it possible Putin / Russia was trying to frame Canada as a country sympathetic to nazism by incorporating third reich symbology near our parliament? Why is that a lot of the covid-protestor types do their "research" online and then form opinions that are pro-Russian?

I have also noticed for some reason articles published by the CBC insinuating a connection between the protest and Russian misinformation have been retracted. It seems while there is a lot of suspicions and coincidences, but getting open source proof is turning out to be difficult. It reminds me a bit of the Trump / Russian collusion debate, there were significant voices who claimed they were 100% sure but the proof required just didn't seem to materialize.


----------



## Kirkhill

Mills Bomb said:


> I don't want to put blame on Russia for the convoy of covid conspiracies either unless it's deserved but I wouldn't be completely surprised to see a proven link between the protest and a Russian disinformation campaign eventually come to the surface.
> 
> It's definitely a strange coincidence this was the first protest we've seen organized by white supremacist elements (Pat King) and with Nazi flags.
> 
> I'm yet to meet someone in Canada who truly believes in National Socialism in an accurate WWII NSDAP context, most "neo-nazi's" tend to just be extremely ignorant people as opposed to true believers in that form of government or society. And yet right before Putin's campaign against "nazism" we see the swastika flying on parliament hill without much context prior to the invasion kicking off.
> 
> Was it all just a coincidence that idiots here aided Russia in some ways? Is it possible Putin / Russia was trying to frame Canada as a country sympathetic to nazism by incorporating third reich symbology near our parliament? Why is that a lot of the covid-protestor types do their "research" online and then form opinions that are pro-Russian?
> 
> I have also noticed for some reason articles published by the CBC insinuating a connection between the protest and Russian misinformation have been retracted. It seems while there is a lot of suspicions and coincidences, but getting open source proof is turning out to be difficult. It reminds me a bit of the Trump / Russian collusion debate, there were significant voices who claimed they were 100% sure but the proof required just didn't seem to materialize.



Equally though " I wouldn't be completely surprised to see a proven link between the (Black Lives Matter/Yellow Jacket) protest and a Russian disinformation campaign eventually come to the surface."

Or any other active protest movement involving both Direct Action and Civil Disobedience.


----------



## MilEME09

Some maps showing w couple Critical areas, Ukrainian forces are steadily pushing on Kherson, and hitting the rear line near Kyiv. Source isn't the best as I call into question his language choices but maps seem to back up what other sources are saying


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504941079535267848

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505182524389183499


----------



## HiTechComms

Watching all this twitter and media analysts trying to figure out what is actually happening.


----------



## daftandbarmy

HiTechComms said:


> Watching all this twitter and media analysts trying to figure out what is actually happening.
> View attachment 69566



Very accurate IMHO


----------



## Kirkhill

The distance from Lypivka to Bucha is 29 km as the Cannon Shell flies.

Assume the Ukraine has 235 2S3 Akatsiya 152mm Tracked SPHs with a 18.5 km Range (24 km with Rocket Assist)
Assume the Ukraine has 600 2S1 Gvozdika 122mm Tracked SPHs with a 15.3 km Range (21.9 km Extended )

And that entire salient the Russians have created for themselves is likely to be covered by cannon fire

Add to that more than 300 122mm BM-21 Grad launchers with 45 km range

The Russians are set up for the Ukrainians to use Russian artillery tactics against them.










						2S3 Akatsiya - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				











						2S1 Gvozdika - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				











						BM-21 Grad - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				





Ukrainian Army Artillery Inventory according to Wiki.


ModelImageOriginTypeVariantNumberDetailsSapsan[135] UkraineTactical ballistic missileTBAIn development, with a range of 480 km and a maximum payload of about a 1.5 tons - although the warhead in reality will not exceed half a ton as agreed in the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. The development of this missile was stopped in 2013 due to the lack of funds under the Viktor Yanukovych presidency, but restarted due to the War in Donbas. Since financial support from the central government is inadequate, the project was frozen in 2019 at phase of testing. Financial funding resumed in 2021 and the MOD of Ukraine hopes to be able to buy the first Sapsan systems at the end of 2021[_citation needed_]Neptune UkraineCruise missileRK-360MCUnknownIn service with the Ukrainian Navy since March 2021.[136]Korshun-2 [uk][_citation needed_] UkraineCruise missileTBAIn development, with a range of between 50 and 350 km and a payload of half a ton (around 450 kg), it is expected to serve as long-range cruise missile for the Ukrainian Ground Forces in the future. Expected to fulfill the same role as the American BGM-109 Tomahawk. The missile is in development since 2014 and will require time and money to enter service with the army.Hrim-2[137] UkraineTactical ballistic missileHrim-21Range of 350 km and a payload of 480 kg. The system was first unveiled in August 2018. It is unknown whether it entered the service yet.OTR-21 Tochka Soviet UnionTactical ballistic missileScarab-B90[138]Range of 120 km and a payload of half a ton.
Multiple videos show the Ukrainian Army fired multiple Tochka missiles near Donetsk during the War in Donbas.[139][140][141][142]9K52 Luna-M Soviet UnionTactical ballistic missile50All in Storage. Range of 70 km and a payload of half a ton. Would require an overall overhaul to be reactivated for combat duty.Vilkha UkraineMultiple rocket launcher 300 mmTBAEnglish: "Alder". Guided missile designed to be fired from BM-30 Smerch system. First 100 missiles delivered in November 2019. Missiles can be guided by TB-2 Bayraktar Drones. Addition Vilkha Missiles on order.BM-30 Smerch




MAZ-543
 Soviet Union
Byelorussian SSRMultiple rocket launcher



Ammo carrier9A52-2




TMZ 9T234-275[88]BM-27 Uragan




ZIL-135 Soviet UnionMultiple rocket launcher



Ammo carrier9P140




9T45276/139[143]Further 63 are in storage and will need a complete overhaul to be combat ready.BM-21 Grad

 Ukraine
Ukraine
Ukraine
Soviet Union
Soviet UnionMultiple rocket launcherBM-21V
BM-21U
BM-21K
BM-21B
BM-21A1
12
6
302[143]
18450 units available after 1991.2S22 Bohdana UkraineSelf-propelled howitzer 155mm1 prototypeTesting will resume in 2021[144]152mm SpGH DANA Czech RepublicSelf-propelled howitzer 152mmDANA M2(26)26 howitzers ordered in 2020.[_citation needed_]2S19 Msta-S Soviet UnionSelf-propelled howitzer 152mm63[145]2S3 Akatsiya Soviet UnionSelf-propelled howitzer 152mm235 / 219After the collapse of the Soviet Union the newly independent Ukraine inherited 501 machines, but over the years due to sales and neglect the number decreased to 463[146] in 2014, of which 235[147] are operational in 2017. All units were produced at Uraltransmash in the present day Russian city of Yekaterinburg. As of April 2017 9 units were lost during the War in Donbas.2S1 Gvozdika Soviet UnionSelf-propelled howitzer 122mm600+After the collapse of the Soviet Union the newly independent Ukraine inherited 640[148] machines, but over the years due to sales and neglect the number decreased to 598[146] in 2014, of which 247[147] were operational in 2016. All units were produced at Kharkiv Tractor Plant in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv. As of April 2017 18 units were lost during the War in Donbas. 33 pieces were bought in 2018 from Czech Republic.[149] 16 2S1 were delivered in the first quarter of 2020 with a further 5 delivered on 31 March 2020.[150][151] The Starokramatorsk Machine-Building Plant has begun production of replacement barrels for 122mm howitzers.[152]2S7 Pion Soviet UnionSP gun 203mm992S5 Giatsint-S Soviet UnionSP gun 152mm24[146]2S9 Nona Soviet UnionSP mortar 120mm42 / 1967 available 2014, since 6 were lost in the war.B-4 Soviet Union203mm howitzer4Thought to have been repaired from an unworkable state. Status otherwise unknown.2A65 Soviet Union152mm howitzer185Over 130 in service[153]2A36 Soviet Union152mm howitzer287D-20 Soviet Union152mm howitzer224D-30 Soviet Union122mm howitzer4432A45 Sprut-A Soviet Union
Ukraine125mm AT gun30+Limited quantity available. Ukraine capable of producing its own units at Kharkiv KMDB plant.[_citation needed_]T-12 Soviet Union100mm AT gunMT-12 Rapira500+Most guns were brought out of storage during 2015, with each brigade now having an anti-tank unit. Some guns were also assigned to the National Guard.D-48 Soviet Union85mm AT gun45Most guns are in storage, the rest are used in training.[154]D-44 Soviet Union85mm AT gun326Most guns are in storage.[155]


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> View attachment 69565
> 
> The distance from Lypivka to Bucha is 29 km as the Cannon Shell flies.
> 
> Assume the Ukraine has 235 2S3 Akatsiya 152mm Tracked SPHs with a 18.5 km Range (24 km with Rocket Assist)
> Assume the Ukraine has 600 2S1 Gvozdika 122mm Tracked SPHs with a 15.3 km Range (21.9 km Extended )
> 
> And that entire salient the Russians have created for themselves is likely to be covered by cannon fire
> 
> Add to that more than 300 122mm BM-21 Grad launchers with 45 km range
> 
> The Russians are set up for the Ukrainians to use Russian artillery tactics against them.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 2S3 Akatsiya - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 2S1 Gvozdika - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> BM-21 Grad - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian Army Artillery Inventory according to Wiki.
> 
> 
> ModelImageOriginTypeVariantNumberDetailsSapsan[135]UkraineTactical ballistic missileTBAIn development, with a range of 480 km and a maximum payload of about a 1.5 tons - although the warhead in reality will not exceed half a ton as agreed in the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. The development of this missile was stopped in 2013 due to the lack of funds under the Viktor Yanukovych presidency, but restarted due to the War in Donbas. Since financial support from the central government is inadequate, the project was frozen in 2019 at phase of testing. Financial funding resumed in 2021 and the MOD of Ukraine hopes to be able to buy the first Sapsan systems at the end of 2021[_citation needed_]NeptuneUkraineCruise missileRK-360MCUnknownIn service with the Ukrainian Navy since March 2021.[136]Korshun-2 [uk][_citation needed_]UkraineCruise missileTBAIn development, with a range of between 50 and 350 km and a payload of half a ton (around 450 kg), it is expected to serve as long-range cruise missile for the Ukrainian Ground Forces in the future. Expected to fulfill the same role as the American BGM-109 Tomahawk. The missile is in development since 2014 and will require time and money to enter service with the army.Hrim-2[137]UkraineTactical ballistic missileHrim-21Range of 350 km and a payload of 480 kg. The system was first unveiled in August 2018. It is unknown whether it entered the service yet.OTR-21 TochkaSoviet UnionTactical ballistic missileScarab-B90[138]Range of 120 km and a payload of half a ton.
> Multiple videos show the Ukrainian Army fired multiple Tochka missiles near Donetsk during the War in Donbas.[139][140][141][142]9K52 Luna-MSoviet UnionTactical ballistic missile50All in Storage. Range of 70 km and a payload of half a ton. Would require an overall overhaul to be reactivated for combat duty.VilkhaUkraineMultiple rocket launcher 300 mmTBAEnglish: "Alder". Guided missile designed to be fired from BM-30 Smerch system. First 100 missiles delivered in November 2019. Missiles can be guided by TB-2 Bayraktar Drones. Addition Vilkha Missiles on order.BM-30 Smerch
> 
> 
> 
> 
> MAZ-543Soviet Union
> Byelorussian SSRMultiple rocket launcher
> 
> 
> 
> Ammo carrier9A52-2
> 
> 
> 
> 
> TMZ 9T234-275[88]BM-27 Uragan
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ZIL-135Soviet UnionMultiple rocket launcher
> 
> 
> 
> Ammo carrier9P140
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 9T45276/139[143]Further 63 are in storage and will need a complete overhaul to be combat ready.BM-21 Grad
> Ukraine
> Ukraine
> Ukraine
> Soviet Union
> Soviet UnionMultiple rocket launcherBM-21V
> BM-21U
> BM-21K
> BM-21B
> BM-21A1
> 12
> 6
> 302[143]
> 18450 units available after 1991.2S22 BohdanaUkraineSelf-propelled howitzer 155mm1 prototypeTesting will resume in 2021[144]152mm SpGH DANACzech RepublicSelf-propelled howitzer 152mmDANA M2(26)26 howitzers ordered in 2020.[_citation needed_]2S19 Msta-SSoviet UnionSelf-propelled howitzer 152mm63[145]2S3 AkatsiyaSoviet UnionSelf-propelled howitzer 152mm235 / 219After the collapse of the Soviet Union the newly independent Ukraine inherited 501 machines, but over the years due to sales and neglect the number decreased to 463[146] in 2014, of which 235[147] are operational in 2017. All units were produced at Uraltransmash in the present day Russian city of Yekaterinburg. As of April 2017 9 units were lost during the War in Donbas.2S1 GvozdikaSoviet UnionSelf-propelled howitzer 122mm600+After the collapse of the Soviet Union the newly independent Ukraine inherited 640[148] machines, but over the years due to sales and neglect the number decreased to 598[146] in 2014, of which 247[147] were operational in 2016. All units were produced at Kharkiv Tractor Plant in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv. As of April 2017 18 units were lost during the War in Donbas. 33 pieces were bought in 2018 from Czech Republic.[149] 16 2S1 were delivered in the first quarter of 2020 with a further 5 delivered on 31 March 2020.[150][151] The Starokramatorsk Machine-Building Plant has begun production of replacement barrels for 122mm howitzers.[152]2S7 PionSoviet UnionSP gun 203mm992S5 Giatsint-SSoviet UnionSP gun 152mm24[146]2S9 NonaSoviet UnionSP mortar 120mm42 / 1967 available 2014, since 6 were lost in the war.B-4Soviet Union203mm howitzer4Thought to have been repaired from an unworkable state. Status otherwise unknown.2A65Soviet Union152mm howitzer185Over 130 in service[153]2A36Soviet Union152mm howitzer287D-20Soviet Union152mm howitzer224D-30Soviet Union122mm howitzer4432A45 Sprut-ASoviet Union
> Ukraine125mm AT gun30+Limited quantity available. Ukraine capable of producing its own units at Kharkiv KMDB plant.[_citation needed_]T-12Soviet Union100mm AT gunMT-12 Rapira500+Most guns were brought out of storage during 2015, with each brigade now having an anti-tank unit. Some guns were also assigned to the National Guard.D-48Soviet Union85mm AT gun45Most guns are in storage, the rest are used in training.[154]D-44Soviet Union85mm AT gun326Most guns are in storage.[155]


Not to mention their rear lines are exposed, cut the Russians off from resupply and encircle the retire force, that picket has roughly 15 BTGs in it, and they are slowly loosing ground.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Wikipedia has the best maps.  I wouldn't get too excited about this counter-offensive yet, we heard similar things said a few weeks ago WRT a Kharkiv Counter-Offensive and that turned out to be a whole lot of hot air.

The Ukrainians just lost hundreds of men in a cruise missile attack in Mykolaiv, I wonder what genius thought it was a good idea to have everyone sleeping in known barracks less than 30km from the frontline of a Major War?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505189084016578566


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Wikipedia has the best maps.  I wouldn't get too excited about this counter-offensive yet, we heard similar things said a few weeks ago WRT a Kharkiv Counter-Offensive and that turned out to be a whole lot of hot air.
> 
> The Ukrainians just lost hundreds of men in a cruise missile attack in Mykolaiv, I wonder what genius thought it was a good idea to have everyone sleeping in known barracks less than 30km from the frontline of a Major War?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505189084016578566


A lot of people are asking the same question, why would troops not be dispersed?


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Wikipedia has the best maps.  I wouldn't get too excited about this counter-offensive yet, we heard similar things said a few weeks ago WRT a Kharkiv Counter-Offensive and that turned out to be a whole lot of hot air.
> 
> The Ukrainians just lost hundreds of men in a cruise missile attack in Mykolaiv, I wonder what genius thought it was a good idea to have everyone sleeping in known barracks less than 30km from the frontline of a Major War?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505189084016578566



I don't think we are looking at a counter-offensive.  More a series of raids, wearing actions and attempts to straighten positions.

The moves in the South are probably most likely to appear the most dramatic because, I believe, they were the most lightly resourced by the Russians.


----------



## MilEME09

On the up side, Russian armour will get bogged down if they are in the area.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505223248174362627


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> A lot of people are asking the same question, why would troops not be dispersed?



Complacency has always been an enfor force multiplier....


----------



## MilEME09

Images of the flooding


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505227181659762692


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Kirkhill said:


> I don't think we are looking at a counter-offensive.  More a series of raids, wearing actions and attempts to straighten positions.
> 
> The moves in the South are probably most likely to appear the most dramatic because, I believe, they were the most lightly resourced by the Russians.


I agree.  The war is now clearly a set piece battle focused on attrition/exhaustion.  

I have a feeling once Russians are done with Mariupol they will turn their sights to either Mykolaiv or a renewed drive to Zaporizhia.


----------



## ModlrMike

From a political and strategic perspective, the Ukrainians do not have to win, the just have to not lose. The Russians on the other hand do have to win. Anything less than total victory for them will be seen as a loss.


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I agree.  The war is now clearly a set piece battle focused on attrition/exhaustion.
> 
> I have a feeling once Russians are done with Mariupol they will turn their sights to either Mykolaiv or a renewed drive to Zaporizhia.



I don't have as much faith in the offensive capabilities of the Separatists of Lughansk and Donetsk.  They are more likely to be akin to the Ukrainian Territorial Defence Forces and likely to have their hands full engaging the Ukrainian Brigades that have been emplaced there since 2014.

That leaves the Crimean garrison to make most of the running on a 400 km front (Kherson to Mariupol)


----------



## MilEME09

Wouldn't want to be on the receiving end if this arty


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505230710528954373


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

ModlrMike said:


> From a political and strategic perspective, the Ukrainians do not have to win, the just have to not lose. The Russians on the other hand do have to win. Anything less than total victory for them will be seen as a loss.


Yep, the question is what does winning look like, particularly for Russia the aggressor?

 BBC put out an interesting article yesterday:









						Ukraine conflict: Putin lays out his demands in Turkish phone call
					

Russia's president revealed his peace conditions in a phone call - the BBC spoke to someone who listened in.



					www.bbc.com
				




From the article:



> The first four demands are, according to Mr Kalin, not too difficult for Ukraine to meet.
> Chief among them is an *acceptance by Ukraine that it should be neutral and should not apply to join Nato.* Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has already conceded this.
> There are other demands in this category which mostly seem to be face-saving elements for the Russian side.
> *Ukraine would have to undergo a disarmament process to ensure it wasn't a threat to Russia. There would have to be protection for the Russian language in Ukraine. And there is something called de-Nazification.*
> This is deeply offensive to Mr Zelensky, who is himself Jewish and some of whose relatives died in the Holocaust, but the Turkish side believes it will be easy enough for Mr Zelensky to accept. Perhaps it will be enough for Ukraine to condemn all forms of neo-Nazism and promise to clamp down on them.


First Category:

1.  No NATO for Ukraine
2.  Ukrainian Disarmament so it doesn't threaten Russia (I interpret this as also extending to Crimea/Donbass)
3.  Protections for Russian Language
4.  "Denazification"



> The second category is where the difficulty will lie, and in his phone call, Mr Putin said that it would need face-to-face negotiations between him and President Zelensky before agreement could be reached on these points. Mr Zelensky has already said he's prepared to meet the Russian president and negotiate with him one-to-one.
> Mr Kalin was much less specific about these issues, saying simply that they involved *the status of Donbas, in eastern Ukraine, parts of which have already broken away from Ukraine and stressed their Russianness, and the status of Crimea.*
> Although Mr Kalin didn't go into detail, *the assumption is that Russia will demand that the Ukrainian government should give up territory in eastern Ukraine. That will be deeply contentious.*
> The other assumption is that Russia will demand that *Ukraine should formally accept that Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014, does indeed now* belong to Russia. If this is the case, it will be a bitter pill for Ukraine to swallow.
> Nevertheless, it is a fait accompli, even though Russia has no legal right to own Crimea and actually signed an international treaty, after the fall of Communism but before Vladimir Putin came to power, accepting that Crimea was part of Ukraine.



Second Category:

1.  Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast recognized as Russian
2.  Crimea recognized as Russian
3.  Some other territory in East seized by Russia is given to Russia (probably Kherson Oblast, Zaporizhzhia Oblast)


----------



## MilEME09

Out if confirmed losses, Ukraine has captured more tanks from Russia, then Canada has tanks. Talk about fast procurement, only took 3 weeks!


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505233694428180481


----------



## Skysix

They may be an old battle rifle but they are well proven and rugged



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505235699821420548


----------



## The Bread Guy

Another single OS metric, from UKR's info-machine via UKR media








						There are currently 562 Russian prisoners of war in Ukraine – Vereschuk
					

At present, some 562 captured Russian servicemen are officially in Ukraine, Deputy Prime Minister, Minister for the Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine Iryna Vereschuk has said.




					en.interfax.com.ua
				



Since another official said yesterday they weren't going to say how many RUS prisoners were being held, text also captured in PDF in case this link disappears


----------



## suffolkowner

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Yep, the question is what does winning look like, particularly for Russia the aggressor?
> 
> BBC put out an interesting article yesterday:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine conflict: Putin lays out his demands in Turkish phone call
> 
> 
> Russia's president revealed his peace conditions in a phone call - the BBC spoke to someone who listened in.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> From the article:
> 
> 
> First Category:
> 
> 1.  No NATO for Ukraine
> 2.  Ukrainian Disarmament so it doesn't threaten Russia (I interpret this as also extending to Crimea/Donbass)
> 3.  Protections for Russian Language
> 4.  "Denazification"
> 
> 
> 
> Second Category:
> 
> 1.  Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast recognized as Russian
> 2.  Crimea recognized as Russian
> 3.  Some other territory in East seized by Russia is given to Russia (probably Kherson Oblast, Zaporizhzhia Oblast)


How could Ukrainian disarmament be on the table? They would be at the whim of Russia


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

suffolkowner said:


> How could Ukrainian disarmament be on the table? They would be at the whim of Russia


They are a list of demands.  Doesn't mean they will be part of a final settlement.


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> How could Ukrainian disarmament be on the table? They would be at the whim of Russia


It's what Russia is demanding, if Ukraine disarmed, Russia would just roll in after


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> It's what Russia is demanding, if Ukraine disarmed, Russia would just roll in after


Maybe or maybe not?  If Russia wanted to roll in and actually take it all, why didn't they do it in 2014?  It would have been far easier as the Ukrainian Military was grossly incompetent then.


----------



## HiTechComms

suffolkowner said:


> How could Ukrainian disarmament be on the table? They would be at the whim of Russia


Been following the negotiations there is movement and its all looking like Russian points. At this point the Ukrainians need to hold out long enough so they don't get screwed in the negotiations to badly. They will get screwed in the end, all they can do is give Russia a bloody nose at the negotiating table. What my worry is that the more the Russians take territory they might not want to give it back. This will be weeks in negotiations. Russia is using twist arm technique to get what they want the longer the conflict goes on the better the position Russia is in. 

Russia might win the Ukrainian battle but lose the international then again West might loose the Russia-Ukraine War and lose the global conflict of alliances. I think the bank sanctions were stupid as we shot our selves in the foot because banking is about Trust and the west has signaled that your assets are not safe with us. This goes triplicate for Canada we really screwed our banking system which is by far the most stable in the world, now we will just take your shit if you don't agree with government. Canada had shit FDI and its going to get worse. 

If you have investments move them to inflationary resilient holdings, Food, Agri, Energy, Utilities, Banks. Shit is gone get expensive this summer.


----------



## McG

Humphrey Bogart said:


> If Russia wanted to roll in and actually take it all, why didn't they do it in 2014? It would have been far easier as the Ukrainian Military was grossly incompetent then.


Russia’s military involvement in 2014 was hasty & reactionary. The 2022 invasion is deliberate and follows extensive preparation & build-up.

Russia knew it was not ready to go farther in 2014, and they thought they were ready coming into 2022.


----------



## HiTechComms

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Maybe or maybe not?  If Russia wanted to roll in and actually take it all, why didn't they do it in 2014?  It would have been far easier as the Ukrainian Military was grossly incompetent then.


I agree I think the Russians know holding Ukraine is pointless its a poor country and Russia is not into nation building, it simply cannot afford it and it simply doesn't work. I previously stated they will just wreck their shit get the political resolution and leave. The Ukrainian are gone get fucked the EU will be reluctant to go in no one is gone invest as they will need to be Neutral. Ukraine is gone be the buffer zone. It will become an economic puppet just like Chechnya, Belarus. 

To bad EU is also stupid and their own damned actions made them more dependent on Russia's energy. Libya the EU disaster.


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505178331385417730


----------



## MilEME09

Russia is allegedly forcing residents of the occupied areas to move to Russia, probably to replace then with Russian citizens. Straight out of the Soviet play book


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505258123434639360


----------



## Baloo

Gen. Rick Hillier: I was inspired by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and embarrassed for my country



> Canada can do so much more to help save Ukraine. Here's how
> 
> Author of the article:
> Gen. Rick Hillier,  Special to National Post
> Publishing date:
> Mar 19, 2022  •  9 hours ago
> Article content​If platitudes were air defence missiles, praise was anti-tank rockets, applause was fighters, and wishes and prayers were weapons, after this week’s address to Canada’s Parliament, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would have been able to plan his country’s victory parade over Russia. Sadly, what was on display Tuesday was Canada’s unrelenting drive to provide Zelenskyy and Ukraine with complete assistance short of real help. A close friend, who believes in prayer, says that if you actually do something to give wings to that prayer you can achieve something greater. President Zelenskyy has given us an opening, a chance to put wings on our prayers for Ukraine, to achieve something greater.



Interesting commentary.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505252971185065991


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> Russia is allegedly forcing residents of the occupied areas to move to Russia, probably to replace then with Russian citizens. Straight out of the Soviet play book
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505258123434639360


Hey, hey, relax there, buday ... They all WANNA to go to RUS - that's what RUS state media says 


> Nearly 31,400 civilians have evacuated from Mariupol through humanitarian corridors, 99% of them were willing to go to Russia or to the Russia-controlled areas, Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev, chief of Russia’s National Defense Management Center, said on Wednesday ...


And if you believe the numbers in even a couple of recent RUS state media reports, it's not a small number headed east instead of north and west ....


			https://tass.com/defense/1424369
		



			https://tass.com/defense/1423843
		

#EthnicCleansingByAnyOtherName


----------



## TacticalTea

The Bread Guy said:


> Hey, hey, relax there, buday ... They all WANNA to go to RUS - that's what RUS state media says
> 
> Nearly 31,400 civilians have evacuated from Mariupol through humanitarian corridors, *99%* of them were willing to go to Russia or to the Russia-controlled areas, Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev, chief of Russia’s National Defense Management Center, said on Wednesday ...
> 
> And if you believe the numbers in even a couple of recent RUS state media reports, it's not a small number headed east instead of north and west ....
> 
> #EthnicCleansingByAnyOtherName


*67.3%* of all statistics are completely made-up


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505252971185065991


Really bad tradecraft.  You would think if they were elite, they would have better EMSEC.  

That is if the story is actually true.


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Really bad tradecraft.  You would think if they were elite, they would have better EMSEC.
> 
> That is if the story is actually true.



As compared to the professionals getting hit in their barracks in Mykolaiv, or while watching movies in their ship off the Falklands?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

The EMSEC signature of one specific cell phone, especially in a transmitter-rich environment like a suburb of Lviv, would be pretty hard to isolate. More likely is that these hard chargers are posting in social media without taking Geo-locating off their photos/video in the Metadata. An enterprising FSB analyst probably passed it up with a note saying "wouldn't it be awesome if..."

Regardless, my bet is that it was a facility on the list and Ivan just took an opportunity as presented.


----------



## McG

If the cell network is compromised, it is not that hard to identify a foreign bought phone or SIM card.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

McG said:


> If the cell network is compromised, it is not that hard to identify a foreign bought phone or SIM card.


Ofcourse, but seeing as Russia has been knocking out towers of their own volition and to the detriment of their Era secure comms, I find it unlikely they have control of the cell network. 

This whole campaign has been... baffling to say the least on the Cyber/EW/C4ISR front.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505278927455113218


----------



## TacticalTea

Baloo said:


> Gen. Rick Hillier: I was inspired by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and embarrassed for my country
> 
> 
> 
> Interesting commentary.


_''Start the no-flight zone in western Ukraine, protecting routes for humanitarian evacuations; enlarge that area to all of western Ukraine; and flood eastern Ukraine with ground-based air defence at the same time. Communicate clearly to the Russian people that we are saving Ukrainians, not fighting Russians. Let Putin make the first move after that, in the face of our determination."_
-Gen. Hillier

God damn, this is all exactly what I've been thinking and saying since it started.

The rest of his column is also on point.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

TacticalTea said:


> _''Start the no-flight zone in western Ukraine, protecting routes for humanitarian evacuations; enlarge that area to all of western Ukraine; and flood eastern Ukraine with ground-based air defence at the same time. Communicate clearly to the Russian people that we are saving Ukrainians, not fighting Russians. Let Putin make the first move after that, in the face of our determination."_
> -Gen. Hillier
> 
> God damn, this is all exactly what I've been thinking and saying since it started.
> 
> The rest of his column is also on point.


We won't do it for the same reasons we never sent the conventional army across the border en masse in to Pakistan to hunt Taliban.


----------



## The Bread Guy

TacticalTea said:


> ... _Communicate clearly to the Russian people that we are saving Ukrainians, not fighting Russians ..._


Easier said than done these days - like this suggestion from a Liberal MP about making it easier for those who want to leave Russia to leave ...








						Powlowski says Canada needs to win the hearts of Russians through aid for those wishing to leave
					

Read the full story and comment on Tbnewswatch.com




					www.tbnewswatch.com


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505283258245865474
Who had a Navy Captain on their list?


----------



## McG

For those curious as to what the Russian disinformation war currently looks like, it is primarily focused on non-western nations and heavily leveraging appeals to hypocrisy.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504899960646639621

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505168019105976320


----------



## Kirkhill

McG said:


> For those curious as to what the Russian disinformation war currently looks like, it is primarily focused on non-western nations and heavily leveraging appeals to hypocrisy.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504899960646639621
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505168019105976320


Which relates to the Convoy/BLM/YellowJacket/Antifa discussions - they don't have to create friction.  They just have to amplify existing friction.  And it doesn't matter what they are amplifying.


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Really bad tradecraft.  You would think if they were elite, they would have better EMSEC.
> 
> That is if the story is actually true.


It was the base that had been previously identified in the news as a major training base for foreign volunteers. 
    It was the original base NATO had been using for training - continued use IMHO was a failure on the UA, as it was a big KNOWN item to RU.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

KevinB said:


> It was the base that had been previously identified in the news as a major training base for foreign volunteers.
> It was the original base NATO had been using for training - continued use IMHO was a failure on the UA, as it was a big KNOWN item to RU.


I was ref the material quoted in the article.


----------



## HiTechComms

McG said:


> For those curious as to what the Russian disinformation war currently looks like, it is primarily focused on non-western nations and heavily leveraging appeals to hypocrisy.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504899960646639621
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505168019105976320


Its all propaganda. Emotional appeal on both sides.


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I was ref the material quoted in the article.


I know, I just don’t know why the news jumped at that as a reason.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Maybe or maybe not?  If Russia wanted to roll in and actually take it all, why didn't they do it in 2014?  It would have been far easier as the Ukrainian Military was grossly incompetent then.


Maybe because the Russian Army was even worse than it is now back in 2014….


----------



## Czech_pivo

HiTechComms said:


> Been following the negotiations there is movement and its all looking like Russian points. At this point the Ukrainians need to hold out long enough so they don't get screwed in the negotiations to badly. They will get screwed in the end, all they can do is give Russia a bloody nose at the negotiating table. What my worry is that the more the Russians take territory they might not want to give it back. This will be weeks in negotiations. Russia is using twist arm technique to get what they want the longer the conflict goes on the better the position Russia is in.
> 
> Russia might win the Ukrainian battle but lose the international then again West might loose the Russia-Ukraine War and lose the global conflict of alliances. I think the bank sanctions were stupid as we shot our selves in the foot because banking is about Trust and the west has signaled that your assets are not safe with us. This goes triplicate for Canada we really screwed our banking system which is by far the most stable in the world, now we will just take your shit if you don't agree with government. Canada had shit FDI and its going to get worse.
> 
> If you have investments move them to inflationary resilient holdings, Food, Agri, Energy, Utilities, Banks. Shit is gone get expensive this summer.


Please don’t talk about banking/finance issues here in Canada, the impact to us is minimal re Russian sanctions. We need to ensure that these sanctions are in place until Putin is no longer the leader and Russia pays for its actions, Until then we put the screws to them until it hurts.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Czech_pivo said:


> Please don’t talk about banking/finance issues here in Canada, the impact to us is minimal re Russian sanctions. We need to ensure that these sanctions are in place until Putin is no longer the leader and Russia pays for its actions, Until then we put the screws to them until it hurts.


I mean if we had any sense we could definitely turn this entire situation in to a net benefit for us.


----------



## Good2Golf

McG said:


> For those curious as to what the Russian disinformation war currently looks like, it is primarily focused on non-western nations and heavily leveraging appeals to hypocrisy.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504899960646639621
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505168019105976320


Russia’s soooooo unfair…Trudeau cried and apologized for the black face thing…

😉


----------



## TacticalTea

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505286576179486724
Celllll-uh-brate good times, cmon!

Allegedly, he deserted the UKR Navy in '93. Good riddance.


----------



## GK .Dundas

Kirkhill said:


> Which relates to the Convoy/BLM/YellowJacket/Antifa discussions - they don't have to create friction.  They just have to amplify existing friction.  And it doesn't matter what they are amplifying.


Speaking of ...
I made the mistake of reading the comments section of National Post following Hillier's editorial. They wrapped themself in sham patriotism and call for true democracy direct referendums  on " the important issues "  and Golly gee that Mr .Putin's actually a nice guy . 
Can someone kindly explain "those Jewish Nazis " to me one time ?
I guess I am not bright as all those anti mandate people.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I mean if we had any sense & ability @ the top we could definitely turn this entire situation in to a net benefit for us.


FTFY

This, if true (from a Belarus-based human rights organization news site, supported by all sorts of Western government funding & NGOs like Amnesty Int'l), is intriguing:  a former Belarusian Air Assault Bde commander (now working/living in Poland) is telling Russian officers, "hey, don't do it".  An excerpt ...


> ... You think you represent an empire. Empires appeared and expanded due to the fact that a certain country was ahead of its neighbors in technological and cultural development, and there was a logical process of their conquest (often non-violent), accompanied by the progress of these neighbors. What progress are you bringing to Ukraine?
> 
> You are simply destroying a country that you obviously cannot restore even to the state it was in before you. All this makes absolutely no sense, because even if by some miracle you managed to occupy the entire territory of Ukraine, you would never be able to keep it — a country inhabited by 40 million free, proud and hating people. This is the Patriotic War of the Ukrainian people.
> 
> Stop! Cease fire! Demand from your superior commanders simply an honest and adequate assessment of the situation — that is, the fulfillment of their statutory duties.
> 
> The courage of a commander is not to die himself and put people to death. Believe me, for your children, who will remain orphans, awarding you a posthumous order will be very little consolation. Save what can still be saved!
> 
> Each new hour of hostilities, each new shot is the weighting of your karma for generations to come. All wars end. And then comes the time of heavy reckoning. What you are doing now is a crime against humanity without a statute of limitations.
> 
> Messers officers, stop the fratricidal war!


----------



## McG

Kirkhill said:


> Which relates to the Convoy/BLM/YellowJacket/Antifa discussions - they don't have to create friction.  They just have to amplify existing friction.  And it doesn't matter what they are amplifying.


Mr Miller also noted that Russian information warfare transited along identity based lines of communication. In North America, political identities are more important to many people than are national identities. Hyper-partisan fault lines will be vulnerable to exploitation by Putin’s messagers.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505189886327930881


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505252971185065991


Is that not the pic of Kherson airport after the Ukkies hit their helos?


----------



## TacticalTea

Czech_pivo said:


> Is that not the pic of Kherson airport after the Ukkies hit their helos?


Yes.



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505292675611779076
The phrasing is eerily reminiscent of MSMs ''calling'' elections.

With both sides unable to employ air power, and RU running out of cruise missiles but entrenching their armour, echoes of the Great War are palpable.


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> Maybe because the Russian Army was even worse than it is now back in 2014….


Russia only started reforms and rearming after the 2008 war, so likely they assesses to be in a bad position in 2014, and thought the army was ready now


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> Russia only started reforms and rearming after the 2008 war, so likely they assesses to be in a bad position in 2014, and thought the army was ready now


Not to be too arrogant towards whoever made the argument first, but also the idea that Russia didn't do anything in 2014 seems rather asinine...

They literally invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea. That WE didn't make a big deal out of it says more about us than Russia.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Russia only started reforms and rearming after the 2008 war, so likely they assesses to be in a bad position in 2014, and thought the army was ready now


They also sacked the architect and brought in a oligarch crony to effectively reverse all the changes...


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505347137906757632


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505340677663735813


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505340677663735813


Touching on that ....








						Ukrainian Team Collects Dead Russian Soldiers To Exchange For Ukrainian POWs
					

Russian forces are meeting fierce resistance and taking casualties as they try to move towards the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv. On March 18, a Ukrainian special search group collected the dead bodies of Russian soldiers in the hope they could be exchanged for Ukrainian prisoners of war.




					www.rferl.org


----------



## MilEME09

Belarusian opposition claimed responsibility today for sabotaging the Belarusian rail network, which has apparently Damaged parts of it beyond repair, in an effort to slow down Russian forces using the country to stage attacks against Ukraine


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505276054289752064


----------



## Prairie canuck

Have the Azov Battalion been abandoned to their fate? Since Mariupol is their "birthplace" it may explain why it's being flattened? They are likely the only link to Putin's claim of Nazis. Ya I know, it's maybe a stretch, but there's a whole lot in this war that's a stretch.


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> Belarusian opposition claimed responsibility today for sabotaging the Belarusian rail network, which has apparently Damaged parts of it beyond repair, in an effort to slow down Russian forces using the country to stage attacks against Ukraine
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505276054289752064


There is yet hope for Belarus.


----------



## TacticalTea

Prairie canuck said:


> Have the Azov Battalion been abandoned to their fate? Since Mariupol is their "birthplace" it may explain why it's being flattened? They are likely the only link to Putin's claim of Nazis. Ya I know, it's maybe a stretch, but there's a whole lot in this war that's a stretch.


No, I think it's an appropriate train of thought to follow.


----------



## MilEME09

Well then....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505380637276094466


----------



## daftandbarmy

Prairie canuck said:


> Have the Azov Battalion been abandoned to their fate? Since Mariupol is their "birthplace" it may explain why it's being flattened? They are likely the only link to Putin's claim of Nazis. Ya I know, it's maybe a stretch, but there's a whole lot in this war that's a stretch.



I'm pretty sure it's the Russians who are at the mercy of the Azov bunch


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505378780965130242


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> Belarusian opposition claimed responsibility today for sabotaging the Belarusian rail network, which has apparently Damaged parts of it beyond repair, in an effort to slow down Russian forces using the country to stage attacks against Ukraine
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505276054289752064



I wonder if there might be a little 'Green Beret' spin on that...


----------



## Zipperhead99

TacticalTea said:


> Yes.
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505292675611779076
> The phrasing is eerily reminiscent of MSMs ''calling'' elections.
> 
> With both sides unable to employ air power, and RU running out of cruise missiles but entrenching their armour, echoes of the Great War are palpable.


Unfortunately, I am not sure if the Ukrainians possess the combat power to counter-attack and drive the Russians out of Ukraine


----------



## Prairie canuck

Zipperhead99 said:


> Unfortunately, I am not sure if the Ukrainians possess the combat power to counter-attack and drive the Russians out of Ukraine


If the UA can keep cutting off the Russian columns,  who from what I've read are sticking to the roads, and attacking those isolated sections the accumulated damage may do the trick and add some power points to Mr. Z during negotiations. Small bites, a lot of small bites.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Today's UKR mil int tote board ....

... as well as yesterday's and this morning's RUS MoD summaries (safe PDFs of text attached)


----------



## MilEME09

Prairie canuck said:


> If the UA can keep cutting off the Russian columns,  who from what I've read are sticking to the roads, and attacking those isolated sections the accumulated damage may do the trick and add some power points to Mr. Z during negotiations. Small bites, a lot of small bites.


Not to mention due to how centralized Russian C2, the loss of so many generals, regimental, and battalion commanders is a major blow as well.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Difficult call, though understandable, & tough tightrope to walk:  UKR suspends opposition party activity ....


> ... I want to remind all politicians from any camp: wartime shows very well the meanness of personal ambitions of those who try to put their own ambitions, their own party or career above the interests of the state, the interests of the people.
> 
> Those who hide somewhere in the rear, but pretend to be the only one who cares about defense.
> 
> Any activity of politicians aimed at splitting or collaborating will not succeed. But it will get a tough response.
> 
> That is why the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine decided… Given the full-scale war waged by the Russian Federation and the ties of some political structures with this state, any activity of a number of political parties during the martial law is suspended. Namely: "Opposition Platform - For Life", "Shariy Party", "Nashi", "Opposition Bloc", "Left Opposition", "Union of Left Forces", "State", "Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine", "Socialist Party of Ukraine”, “Socialists” Party, “Volodymyr Saldo Bloc”.
> 
> The Ministry of Justice is instructed to immediately take comprehensive measures to ban the activities of these political parties in the prescribed manner ...


OP edit to add some useful context via USA govt funded media ...








						Ukraine Suspends Political Parties With Russian Links
					

Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council has suspended 11 pro-Russian political parties while martial law is in place in the country.




					www.rferl.org


----------



## The Bread Guy

The occupation info-machine fight, Kherson food edition ....

RUS MoD (see text of official English statement attached - won't be providing links to RUS MoD sites here):  Lookit all the humanitarian aid we gave out @ Kherson ...


> ... Currently, shops and food markets are opening in the city of Kherson, but local entrepreneurs, due to a shortage of products, significantly inflate the prices of essential goods. Most residents of the city cannot buy food, given that the government and employers have stopped paying salaries and social allowances.  In this regard, a large number of residents of the city of Kherson and the Kherson region come daily to  the places of delivery of humanitarian aid from the Russian Federation ...


UKR Pres:  


> ... Unfortunately, it was not possible to deliver the humanitarian cargo to the cities of the Kherson region. Russian troops blocked the movement of our convoy. Why? Their goal has not changed - in the same way they try to portray in their propaganda that Ukraine has left its citizens without the essentials. As if Russia is constantly saving them from something ...


UKR MoD morning update:


> ... last night to the Kherson area from the city of Apostolovo of the Dnipropetrovsk region 14 trucks with foodstuff and medicines of the first necessity had been moved. The russian occupiers did not give access to humanitarian convoy for moving without reason.  In this way occupiers try to force the local population to collaborate. At the same time, the invaders are distributing leaflets with proposals to appeal to the occupation administration, citizens are promised to cancel credit debts, and local entrepreneurs are given preferences in doing business ...


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505508287189499904


----------



## The Bread Guy

Prairie canuck said:


> Have the Azov Battalion been abandoned to their fate? Since Mariupol is their "birthplace" it may explain why it's being flattened? They are likely the only link to Putin's claim of Nazis. Ya I know, it's maybe a stretch, but there's a whole lot in this war that's a stretch.


If Azov wasn't such an obsession for RUS, it wouldn't be mentioned sooooo much in its narrative, so not a stretch at all.


----------



## The Bread Guy

And a heart warming tale from RUS's MoD info-machine from this morning (links to Google translated text of statement):  a youth art contest to support the boys in Ukraine's not-a-war ....


> A competition for the best drawing was held in the military garrisons of the Eastern Military District (VVO) in the Amur Region, which is aimed at supporting Russian servicemen participating in a special operation in Ukraine, as well as refugees from the war zone.
> 
> In their works, the children showed their desire to support the servicemen of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, expressed their solidarity for a just cause in the fight against Nazism and hope that a just cause will win. The servicemen of formations and military units of the Air Defense Forces in a solemn atmosphere awarded the winners and participants of the children's drawings competition with certificates of honor and thanks ...


Some of the highlighted works ....


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505488054592720898


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505508287189499904


The VDV are going to need new everything after this conflict is over.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505557290660864002


----------



## KevinB

The Pope weighs in.   Maybe it's just me - but it sounds like he wants NATO to get off its ass...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505551899952656387


----------



## Czech_pivo

Anyone read this info? No way to verify if true.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505548919375339521
Or this


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505548924567891968
Or this


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505548926308564992


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

I don't know if this has been shared here yet:






Special mention to the SEAD guitar solo at the end 😁


----------



## Quirky

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505557290660864002





KevinB said:


> The Pope weighs in.   Maybe it's just me - but it sounds like he wants NATO to get off its ass...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505551899952656387


Mariupol has 350k trapped civilians and Russians aren't letting supplies in. NATO seems to be more than willing to sit on their hands and let the population either be shelled or starve to death. Neveragain my ass.


----------



## Kirkhill

Czech_pivo said:


> Anyone read this info? No way to verify if true.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505548919375339521
> Or this
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505548924567891968
> Or this
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505548926308564992



Perhaps related?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505453132872044544


----------



## Portnord

TacticalTea said:


> Yes.
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505292675611779076
> The phrasing is eerily reminiscent of MSMs ''calling'' elections.
> 
> With both sides unable to employ air power, and RU running out of cruise missiles but entrenching their armour, echoes of the Great War are palpable.


Not my profession but I don't understand how this morphs into WWI. There don't seem to be anywhere near enough soldiers to hold a continuous front.

If the Russians are digging in, aren't they just creating fixed strongpoints in hostile territory at the demonstrated practical limit of their supply line? It sounds like they will be even easier to isolate.


----------



## McG

KevinB said:


> The Pope weighs in.   Maybe it's just me - but it sounds like he wants NATO to get off its ass...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505551899952656387


But what is the Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople saying? That will carry more water in Russia.


----------



## Kirkhill

Meanwhile Ukraine is not discounting Belarus as a threat.




> 9:49am
> Ukraine fears attack from Belarus​Ukraine sees a high risk of an attack on western Ukraine's Volyn region being launched from Belarus, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's office said today.
> The Russian invasion has mostly focused on northern, southern and eastern areas of Ukraine, though missiles also hit the Yavoriv military base last week, close to the Polish border.
> It was not immediately clear whether Ukraine saw the threat of an attack on Volyn from Russian forces or the Belarusian military, which has so far not publicly committed troops to supporting Russia.











						Moscow sets deadline for Kyiv to surrender Mariupol
					

Russia has demanded that Ukrainian troops lay down their arms in the besieged port of Mariupol and said Kyiv has only hours to give its response on whether it will surrender the city.




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Portnord said:


> Not my profession but I don't understand how this morphs into WWI. There don't seem to be anywhere near enough soldiers to hold a continuous front.
> 
> If the Russians are digging in, aren't they just creating fixed strongpoints in hostile territory at the demonstrated practical limit of their supply line? It sounds like they will be even easier to isolate.


It has to do with the topography of the Country.  Ukraine has a lot of Rivers, Estuaries and Forests that form natural defensive barriers.  As a result, it is not necessary to defend every piece of terrain.

Izium, for instance is a key piece of ground for both sides because it's where the M03 Highway linking Luhansk and Kharkiv runs through and is also where Tanks and Troops can cross the Siverskyi-Donets River which is the natural obstacle the Ukrainian Army is using to defend their positions.

The thing that is preventing Ukraine from launching a large counter attack is the Russian Air Force at this time.  If Ukraine were to mass for an assault, they could be targeted with airpower.

The stalemate suits them at this time.


----------



## RaceAddict

tomydoom said:


> Don’t know if anyone has posted this yet? But it’s gotta sting getting trolled by your own cosmonauts. Hopefully Elon and arrange a return trip for these guys.
> 
> Russians board International Space Station in Ukrainian colours Russians board International Space Station in Ukrainian colours



A person far smarter than myself pointed the following out to me:



> It also turns out that all of the members of this crew graduated from the Moscow Higher Technical University named after Baumann (MVTU).  The school's colors are blue and gold.  It is likely that these flight suits were made months ago and planned as a tribute to their alma mater (there were tribute markings on their launch vehicle, and their Soyuz capsule was named after Sergei Korolev - who was both a graduate and a lecturer at MVTU later in his career.)


----------



## daftandbarmy

Retried, Extremely Dangerous... in more ways than one:



Legion of the damned: Inside Ukraine’s army of misfits, veterans, and war tourists in the fight against Russia​ 
Every war has its own dynamics which can be equally lethal to veterans and beginners if not properly understood. 

In their first trial by fire earlier this month, the volunteers were put into a hasty defense north of Kyiv, as the Russians began their onslaught on the towns lying north of the city. After the initial volley of Ukrainian anti-tank missiles had stopped the attackers in their tracks, enemy soldiers spilled out of their armored fighting vehicles about a quarter-mile in front of the volunteers, and into a withering storm of fire that halted the assault. “Shoot the ones in black uniforms,” a Ukrainian platoon commander is said to have told his foreign charges. “They are Belarusians.” Ukrainians are particularly incensed (but not surprised) at the perfidious complicity of Belarusian autocrat Alexander Lukashenko in taking his stance as a sycophantic second to President Vladimir Putin. Sadly, as with Putin, it is Lukashenko’s soldiers who are paying the price. 

Although the Legionnaires helped to halt the attack, their performance that day was uneven — an observation that led the Ukrainians to discharge the surviving members of the initial intake, without any ceremony or official notification. Worse was to come. An unknown number of new recruits were training at a camp near the border when, a strike by Tupolev bombers, carrying Kh 101 cruise missiles, destroyed the camp. The death toll is not yet clear, but Ukrainian officers have told me that it will likely be more than 100.











						Legion of the damned: Inside Ukraine’s army of misfits, veterans, and war tourists in the fight against Russia
					

The recruits of Ukraine Foreign Legion has been a mixed bag – with a swarm of Fantasists for every one candidate with combat experience.




					taskandpurpose-com.cdn.ampproject.org


----------



## Portnord

Humphrey Bogart said:


> It has to do with the topography of the Country.  Ukraine has a lot of Rivers, Estuaries and Forests that form natural defensive barriers.  As a result, it is not necessary to defend every piece of terrain.
> 
> Izium, for instance is a key piece of ground for both sides because it's where the M03 Highway linking Luhansk and Kharkiv runs through and is also where Tanks and Troops can cross the Siverskyi-Donets River which is the natural obstacle the Ukrainian Army is using to defend their positions.
> 
> The thing that is preventing Ukraine from launching a large counter attack is the Russian Air Force at this time.  If Ukraine were to mass for an assault, they could be targeted with airpower.
> 
> The stalemate suits them at this time.


I can understand the UA not being able to drive them out of a prepared position. But doesn't that cede control of everywhere else to territorial defense? I got the impression those were the guys attacking supply lines.

Edit: apologies in advance in case my ignorance is so deep I'm not even asking the right questions 😅


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Portnord said:


> I can understand the UA not being able to drive them out of a prepared position. But doesn't that cede control of everywhere else to territorial defense? I got the impression those were the guys attacking supply lines.


There are attacks to supply lines but there are also forces behind the FEBA that are out actively hunting Partisans and Enemy Units conducting these attacks.  

Military Police Units, Special Forces, Heliborne Infantry, etc.

There is static defence but there is also mobile defence.  Even units that are in static defensive positions should be aggressively patrolling around their positions.

Patrolling is something that never stops, on offence or defence.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> There are attacks to supply lines but there are also forces behind the FEBA that are out actively hunting Partisans and Enemy Units conducting these attacks.
> 
> Military Police Units, Special Forces, Heliborne Infantry, etc.
> 
> There is static defence but there is also mobile defence.  Even units that are in static defensive positions should be aggressively patrolling around their positions.
> 
> Patrolling is something that never stops, on offence or defence.



Especially when your enemy is stuck on the roads with alot of exposed flanks:


Ukraine’s Mud Forcing Russian Tanks Into Howitzer Traps​
Rasputitsa is the name given to the terribly muddy conditions that affect Russia and Ukraine when spring temperatures melt the winter snow. It was a huge problem when first Napoleon and then Hitler tried to invade Russia, and it's now a huge problem for Putin trying to invade Ukraine. France24 reports that springtime temperatures are starting to turn Ukraine into a quagmire of mud. This has led to many Russian armored vehicles and even tanks getting stuck in the stuff, forcing their crews to abandon them. This means Russian armor has to stay on roads, and can’t risk maneuvering over open ground. Ukraine’s army has been able exploit this limitation by getting information on where the convoys are moving toward. They can then choose an ambush point and use trucks to pull long-range artillery pieces into a position where it can hit the ambush point accurately. Drones can then be used to show when the enemy reached the ambush point. Drone footage recently showed how one such artillery ambush managed to drop shells on dozens of Russian tanks that had clustered together in the town of Skybyn. The drone recorded as shell after shell rained down on the armored vehicles, scoring a few direct hits. The convoy then quickly retreated back up the road it came in on. Ukrainian missile teams then moved in and managed to destroy more of these tanks just north of Skybyn. Russian armor continues to amass around major cities in Ukraine, while mostly keeping to paved roads, where Ukrainian infantry units can often engage them with anti-tank missiles from short distances.


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> There are attacks to supply lines but there are also forces behind the FEBA that are out actively hunting Partisans and Enemy Units conducting these attacks.
> 
> Military Police Units, Special Forces, Heliborne Infantry, etc.
> 
> There is static defence but there is also mobile defence.  Even units that are in static defensive positions should be aggressively patrolling around their positions.
> 
> Patrolling is something that never stops, on offence or defence.



In fairness though patrolling takes manpower and from all accounts manpower is something the invaders lack.  As well there has to be the will to take offensive action, which patrols in this situation are.  And that will also seems to be lacking judging from the numbers of abandoned and captured vehicles being reported.

I think the home side has considerable advantages in this case. Not least of which are morale, numbers and local knowledge as well as, as long as it can be sustained, a strong suite of effective weapons.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> Anyone read this info? No way to verify if true.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505548919375339521
> Or this
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505548924567891968
> Or this
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505548926308564992


Some RUS broadcast media had it online briefly, only to have it disappear - but not from Google Cache  


> The commander of the Kostroma regiment of the Airborne Forces Sergey Sukharev died in the battle During the special operation in Ukraine, according to the Regional Military Commissariat, servicemen of the 331st Guards Airborne Regiment showed heroism and gave their lives for the security of our country. The commander of the Kostroma regiment of the Airborne Forces Sergey Sukharev died in the battle This is the commander of the unit, Colonel Sergei Sukharev, Senior Sergeant Sergei Lebedev, Sergeant Alexander Limonov, Corporal Yuri Degtyarev. Captain Aleksey Nikitin died in the line of duty - Kostroma served in one of the military units of Anapa. Governor Sergei Sitnikov expressed condolences to the families and friends of the fallen soldiers. The families of the heroes will be provided with comprehensive support.


----------



## MilEME09

Wtf


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505583253125832704


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Kirkhill said:


> In fairness though patrolling takes manpower and from all accounts manpower is something the invaders lack.  As well there has to be the will to take offensive action, which patrols in this situation are.  And that will also seems to be lacking judging from the numbers of abandoned and captured vehicles being reported.
> 
> I think the home side has considerable advantages in this case. Not least of which are morale, numbers and local knowledge as well as, as long as it can be sustained, a strong suite of effective weapons.


Agreed on all points.  

This is examples of the type of patrolling I mentioned:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504483484127039492
FSB SOF unit conducting a raid in Kherson, well behind the FEBA and in Russian controlled territory.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504889799756464128
Another FSB raid, looking for insurgents.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505569214895169539
Spetsnaz patrolling near the frontline IVO Kyiv


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505535165514326019
National Guard quelling a protest in Berdyansk.  

As you can see, there are thousands of troops fighting on the frontline but there are also an equal number in the occupied areas trying to assert control.


----------



## ueo

MilEME09 said:


> A lot of people are asking the same question, why would troops not be dispersed?


Same reason Cdns took/retook the same hill in Afganistan multiple times. Thats the way we always did it.


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Agreed on all points.
> 
> This is examples of the type of patrolling I mentioned:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504483484127039492
> FSB SOF unit conducting a raid in Kherson, well behind the FEBA and in Russian controlled territory.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504889799756464128
> Another FSB raid, looking for insurgents.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505569214895169539
> Spetsnaz patrolling near the frontline IVO Kyiv
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505535165514326019
> National Guard quelling a protest in Berdyansk.
> 
> As you can see, there are thousands of troops fighting on the frontline but there are also an equal number in the occupied areas trying to assert control.



The operative word being "Trying".

As long as they are still "Trying" they haven't asserted control.  And all of those Tracksuited Guardsmen, FSB types and Spetsnaz aren't contributing to the main effort or effectively guarding the Lines of Communication in the countryside.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Biblical info-ops  








						Belarus's Ambassador Offered '30 Pieces Of Silver' As He Left Ukraine
					

Belarus has withdrawn all of its diplomats from Ukraine. When Ambassador Ihar Sokol was leaving for Moldova on March 18, a Ukrainian border officer tried to hand him "30 pieces of silver" -- a reference to the biblical story of the betrayal of Jesus by Judas.




					www.rferl.org


----------



## GK .Dundas

"FSB raiding residential homes".......huh !
Around here this referred to as an home invasion looking for money and drugs.
All I see here is just another group of gangbangers who just are better dressed, that's all.


----------



## TacticalTea

The Bread Guy said:


> Difficult call, though understandable, & tough tightrope to walk:  UKR suspends opposition party activity ....
> 
> OP edit to add some useful context via USA govt funded media ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine Suspends Political Parties With Russian Links
> 
> 
> Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council has suspended 11 pro-Russian political parties while martial law is in place in the country.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rferl.org


We did the same with the communists back in the day, our democracy still made it out alive and well.

Good on them.


Portnord said:


> Not my profession but I don't understand how this morphs into WWI. There don't seem to be anywhere near enough soldiers to hold a continuous front.
> 
> If the Russians are digging in, aren't they just creating fixed strongpoints in hostile territory at the demonstrated practical limit of their supply line? It sounds like they will be even easier to isolate.


Good points from HB, but to be clear, my exact words were "echoes of the great war", not that this situation would morph into anything specifically.

I don't have a crystal ball, and every war is different.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Looking at the age of the soldiers I am guessing LNR/DNR forces and not regular Russian Army


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505632122668732425


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505632122668732425


Or what, they nuke it? Gas it?


----------



## MilEME09

TacticalTea said:


> Or what, they nuke it? Gas it?


Level the city?....nope did that?
Kill civilians? ....nope did that?
Kill puppies?.....probably doing that too

Tac nuke?


In other news


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505640938949033988


----------



## Skysix

MilEME09 said:


> Level the city?....nope did that?
> Kill civilians? ....nope did that?
> Kill puppies?.....probably doing that too
> 
> Tac nuke?
> 
> 
> In other news
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505640938949033988


Take their toys and go home? Doubtfull.
Given Syria probably gas.

In which case is THAT enough to get that NATO splinter group to ignore the council consensus and intervene in some way?

Best option IMHO an immediate UN peaceMAKING force under Polish command with troops from whichever nation chooses to supply them ie: an assortment of former Warsaw Pact nations, the UK and ??


----------



## MilEME09

Skysix said:


> Take their toys and go home? Doubtfull.
> Given Syria probably gas.
> 
> In which case is THAT enough to get that NATO splinter group to ignore the council consensus and intervene in some way?
> 
> Best option IMHO an immediate UN peaceMAKING force under Polish command with troops from whichever nation chooses to supply them ie: an assortment of former Warsaw Pact nations, the UK and ??




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505643911125032965


----------



## Skysix

Let's Talk About The Flurry Of Unusual Aircraft Activity Over Russia Today
					

The flights included a mass launch of Russia's strategic communications, command post, and VVIP aircraft out of Moscow.




					www.thedrive.com


----------



## Skysix

If a tactical nuke, expect one of these to follow. Possibly aimed at Chernobyl as a message since it glows anyway.








						What Russia's nuclear escalation means for Washington, with world's third-largest atomic arsenal
					

Beneath the commercial and recreational vessels and island-bound ferries that navigate Puget Sound on any given day, something else swims secretly armed




					americanmilitarynews.com


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505643911125032965


We call that a Bait Car.  
  I suspect it’s more of a check on Belarus, as if they enter the war, some folks are going to enter them forcibly.


----------



## TacticalTea

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505624341970657281
You got it, Germany, keep going... Almost there!


----------



## GR66

TacticalTea said:


> Or what, they nuke it? Gas it?


I've been one of those that has been generally against a NATO No-Fly zone or other direct military intervention due to the risk of escalation by Russia in response, however if the purpose of non-intervention is to avoid WMD escalation then what should the response be if Russia escalates despite no direct NATO intervention?

In my opinion, NATO should declare that any Russian use of WMDs in Ukraine would trigger an automatic NATO military intervention.  State this in advance so it is clear to the Russian military leadership what the consequences would be.  

It could be a clearly defined, limited intervention in order to allay fears that NATO would take advantage of Russian weakness to invade Russia proper.  For example:


Land forces would only be involved in Ukrainian territory and would not push beyond the pre-war borders.
A No-Fly zone would be put in place over Ukraine.  NATO aircraft and long range strike missiles would only attack targets outside Ukraine if they are illuminated by Russian air defense radars or engaged by Russian AD systems.  Any such systems engaging NATO aircraft would be subject to attack.
Airbases in Russia/Belarus would not be attacked unless they are used to launch aircraft which then attack NATO air/land/sea forces.
Russian/Belorussian ground troops which move back into Russian/Belorussian territory upon set evacuation routes will not be fired upon.
If Russia should launch any attacks on troops/facilities within NATO territory it would trigger an Article 5 response and would permit unrestricted attacks by NATO forces wherever NATO deems appropriate.

Currently we're letting Ukraine take a beating in order to prevent the WMD genie being let out of the bottle, but once Russia takes that step then what is the use of restraint?  Otherwise they know that they can do anything so long as they believe that NATO (the US) isn't willing to risk war coming to their own people in the face of Russian WMD threats.


----------



## gryphonv

Rus LT Gen reportedly killed in air strike.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505674263159881730


----------



## blacktriangle

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505674263159881730


I'm surprised VK wasn't done sooner. Better late than never.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505632122668732425


More from the RUS MoD's info-machine from its end-of-day 20 Mar briefing (full translated text attached - Russian version also, in case you want to see the original)


> ... today we will publish an urgent statement by the Interdepartmental Co-ordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation on the humanitarian response in Ukraine in Russian and English and disseminate it through all available information resources. In order to fulfil this task rigorously, we are also sending an official appeal to the United Nations, the OSCE, the International Committee of the Red Cross and other international organizations, whose representatives are invited to accompany the practical measures of this humanitarian operation, as they are called, directly on the "ground", that is, in the city of Mariupol, and as part of humanitarian columns of both the Russian and Ukrainian sides. We urge the Ukrainian armed forces units, territorial defence battalions and foreign mercenaries to cease hostilities, lay down their weapons and withdraw to Kyiv-controlled territory through humanitarian corridors agreed with the Ukrainian side. All those who have laid down their arms are guaranteed safe exit from Mariupol and the preservation of their lives. In the event that you are once again abandoned by Kyiv officials and ordered to die as martyrs, we urge all those who value and value their own lives to do so independently and in separate groups. The commanders of the units of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Russian Armed Forces will be prepared for such a scenario and will ensure your safe exit, but only without weapons and ammunition, to any area you name. The official authorities in Kiev call for prudence and cancellation of the earlier instructions that obliged the fighters to sacrifice themselves and become, in inverted commas, "martyrs of Mariupol". In addition, we insist on an official written response from the Ukrainian side by 5am tomorrow, i.e. 21 March, to all the listed, purely humane proposals from the Russian Federation, in the name of saving Mariupol residents and the city's infrastructure.
> 
> Separately, we appeal to the odious bandits who have hundreds of innocent lives on their conscience and now call themselves representatives of the official local authorities of this unique city of Mariupol. We are aware of the fact that in the current situation, little depends on you, since you are under the full control of the nationalist battalions, but we very much hope that you, including the city mayor, have at least something basic, human, at least a sense of compassion for the civilians entrusted to you. You are the ones who now have the right to make a historic choice - either you are with your people or you are with the bandits, otherwise the court martial that awaits you is just a little something you have already earned because of the despicable attitude towards your own citizens, as well as the terrible crimes and provocations you have already arranged ...


----------



## Skysix

GR66 said:


> I've been one of those that has been generally against a NATO No-Fly zone or other direct military intervention due to the risk of escalation by Russia in response, however if the purpose of non-intervention is to avoid WMD escalation then what should the response be if Russia escalates despite no direct NATO intervention?
> 
> In my opinion, NATO should declare that any Russian use of WMDs in Ukraine would trigger an automatic NATO military intervention.  State this in advance so it is clear to the Russian military leadership what the consequences would be.
> 
> It could be a clearly defined, limited intervention in order to allay fears that NATO would take advantage of Russian weakness to invade Russia proper.  For example:
> 
> 
> Land forces would only be involved in Ukrainian territory and would not push beyond the pre-war borders.
> A No-Fly zone would be put in place over Ukraine.  NATO aircraft and long range strike missiles would only attack targets outside Ukraine if they are illuminated by Russian air defense radars or engaged by Russian AD systems.  Any such systems engaging NATO aircraft would be subject to attack.
> Airbases in Russia/Belarus would not be attacked unless they are used to launch aircraft which then attack NATO air/land/sea forces.
> Russian/Belorussian ground troops which move back into Russian/Belorussian territory upon set evacuation routes will not be fired upon.
> If Russia should launch any attacks on troops/facilities within NATO territory it would trigger an Article 5 response and would permit unrestricted attacks by NATO forces wherever NATO deems appropriate.
> 
> Currently we're letting Ukraine take a beating in order to prevent the WMD genie being let out of the bottle, but once Russia takes that step then what is the use of restraint?  Otherwise they know that they can do anything so long as they believe that NATO (the US) isn't willing to risk war coming to their own people in the face of Russian WMD threats.




Well reasoned and appropriate. Unfortunately we need a metric shit ton of brass on our hats/shoulders before they will listen to us.


----------



## The Bread Guy

TacticalTea said:


> Or what, they nuke it? Gas it?


Let's see how RUS state media is laying the narrative landscape for at least some hints ...

_*"Russia to open humanitarian corridors from Mariupol east-and westward on March 21"*_
*"Russia calls on nationalists to surrender arms and leave Mariupol - defense ministry"*
*"Over 4.5 mln civilians kept by Ukrainian neo-Nazis as human shield - defense ministry"*
Russian media talking points:
"Anyone who doesn't take advantage of this generous offer from Russia to go anywhere they want from Mariupol is either 
1)  one of the "Ukrainian army, territorial defense battalions, foreign mercenaries" who shoulda left, and fair game, or 
2)  a human shield to the Nazi/Azov/Banderist forces, so it's the fault of said Nazi/Azov/Banderist forces if any harm comes to them."

Stand by for Grozny Plus ...*  *


----------



## Zipperhead99

According to this, it appears that Russia is preparing for the long haul on this one now that any hopes of a quick and easy conquest have gone right out the window.  This will mean that NATO must be prepared to continue to support Ukraine over the coming months and even years....provided Russia does not internally collapse in the meantime due to economic sanctions.






						Institute for the Study of War
					

The Ukrainian General Staff reported for the first time that the Kremlin is preparing its population for a “long war” in Ukraine and implementing increasingly draconian mobilization measures. The General Staff reported the Russian military commissariats o




					understandingwar.org


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505683842211975170


----------



## McG

GR66 said:


> In my opinion, NATO should declare that any Russian use of WMDs in Ukraine would trigger an automatic NATO military intervention. State this in advance so it is clear to the Russian military leadership what the consequences would be.


Sure, but don’t make the threat if it’s only a bluff.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505687044349177861


----------



## tomydoom

RaceAddict said:


> A person far smarter than myself pointed the following out to me:


The BBC later updated their story to include that information, however the cosmonauts have not confirmed that is the motivation either.


----------



## daftandbarmy

More armoured Infantry porn...

They seem to be able to brew up the Russkies with the APC's gun by deliberately firing at the back right section of their tanks.

Footage shows Ukrainian forces blasting Russian Z-tank as troops ambushed in Mariupol​


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505643911125032965


That page is now missing


----------



## MilEME09

daftandbarmy said:


> More armoured Infantry porn...
> 
> They seem to be able to brew up the Russkies with the APC's gun by deliberately firing at the back right section of their tanks.
> 
> Footage shows Ukrainian forces blasting Russian Z-tank as troops ambushed in Mariupol​


Pretty smart, they target the road wheels and the external fuel tank to get a mobility kill, and any infantry hiding behind the tank.


----------



## Skysix

Post removed. MiLEME09 beat me to it


----------



## daftandbarmy

Skysix said:


> Shooting to break the track and hit the fuel drums on the back.



That's wild.

IMHO, all the more reason to argue for a bigger gun on a MICV.


----------



## MilEME09

daftandbarmy said:


> That's wild.
> 
> IMHO, all the more reason to argue for a bigger gun on a MICV.


BTR-4 uses a 30mm, seems to be pretty effective


----------



## TacticalTea

Sweden’s PM says push to join Nato would destabilise northern Europe

Absolute buffoons.

Reds will be Reds, I guess. They have the slimmest majority (175-174), though, going into an election in September. Here's to hoping the right side wins.

Both Sweden and Finland now have majorities in favour of accession. Having them both in the alliance would do wonders for the Northern flank. Not to mention, membership is critical for Finland, who has often suffered from Russian imperialism. Thankfully for them, their government is seriously exploring membership, as opposed to the Swedish govt.


----------



## MilEME09

Take with a grain of salt, but Mariupol will be the new grozny

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505713350843449352


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> Take with a grain of salt, but Mariupol will be the new grozny
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505713350843449352


I still can't believe we're standing here with our dicks in our hands as this unfolds.


----------



## WLSC

TacticalTea said:


> I still can't believe we're standing here with our dicks in our hands as this unfolds.


Worst than that.  We’re only thinking of holding our dick.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497911200692289544


----------



## MilEME09

Russian false flag?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505741188426575875

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505748597303914496


----------



## TacticalTea

A message from President Zelensky.






Slava Ukraini.


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505370275273183239
Tire guy again

Highlights


This loss of vehicles without a shot being fired is referred to as "Operational Attrition." That is, just by operating vehicles, you lose some of them because they break. This gets a lot worse in combat.  Each mile traveled by a military truck in war is between 10 and 20 miles wear.  This is simple.   Truck drivers abuse trucks because they don't want to die. 
Most of the time between 2012 and 2022 the Russian Army did not maintain their trucks. The Russians don't have a professional NCO Corps so they ARE NOT DOING IT NOW.
The overriding priority of Russian logistics is transporting artillery ammunition. Every truck is being sent out in whatever condition, overloaded with ammunition. The engines are running white hot and no one has checked the oil or other fluid levels, let alone does an oil change, in these last three weeks.
Short form: 6-to-8 weeks more fighting will deadline the entire Russian Army military truck fleet.Between the end of April and Mid-May 2022, the Ukrainian Army will be able to counter-attack EVERYWHERE. Because there will be NOWHERE more than 20 miles/30 km inside Ukraine where Russian troops won't be out of food and low on ammunition.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497911200692289544


He's apparently a retired BLR officer, now living/working in Poland - posts some stuff at a BLR-based human rights site here.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest UKR mil int tote board ....

... no surrender @ Mariupol as of this morning ...

_" 'No talk of surrender': Ukraine rejects Russia's ultimatum to give up Mariupol" (Times of Israel)_
_"... Russian forces laying siege to Mariupol should immediately ensure that civilians in Mariupol are not being denied access to items essential for their survival such as water, food, and medicine, and should facilitate safe passage to areas under control of Ukrainian forces for civilians who choose to leave the city ..." (Human Rights Watch)_
... Donetsk & Luhansk rebels dialling up the Mobilization-o-meter ...

"The enemy continues to "mobilize" in the temporarily occupied territories. In particular, the next wave is taking place in the Donetsk region. In order to increase the number of potential "conscripts", the occupiers are increasing the age limit for "conscripts" - from 55 to 65 years. Mobilization of the local population has been announced on local television in the occupied territories of Luhansk region. Students are actively involved in the ranks of the occupying army. In particular, all students of Luhansk Railway Technical School are officially summoned to the educational institution for "registration". The director of the school personally calls those who have already turned 18. The situation is similar at Luhansk Medical University - the institution has announced the mandatory arrival and registration of senior students ..." (UKR mil int, Google English from Ukrainian)
UKR MoD AM 21 Mar update: "... The occupiers continue to carry out forced mobilization measures in the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Thus, according to available information, budget organizations of Stanychno-Luhansk village community have been notified of the need to arrive on April 1, 2022, male workers aged 18 to 60 years in the local police department for registration. The reasons for this "registration" are not explained, although it is connected with the next wave of mobilization to the 2nd Army Corps to be sent to the combat areas ..." (via UKR MoD info-machine)
... and a bit of an info-fight over an ammonia leak @ Sumy

_"Russia preparing information cover-up for chemical weapon use in Sumy and Kotliareve village – MFA" (UKR media)_
_"Russian Defense Ministry: Ukrainian Nazis are involved in the accident at the chemical plant in Sumy" (pro=RUS amplifier)_


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505889409408905216


----------



## The Bread Guy

Lookit who's missing from this "Joint statement “On urgent need to modernize Ukraine's air defense” (links to UKR parliament, Google English)


----------



## daftandbarmy

The Bread Guy said:


> Lookit who's missing from this "Joint statement “On urgent need to modernize Ukraine's air defense” (links to UKR parliament, Google English)
> View attachment 69616




To be fair, maybe they only let countries who HAVE GBAD sign the document


----------



## Quirky

The Bread Guy said:


> Lookit who's missing from this "Joint statement “On urgent need to modernize Ukraine's air defense” (links to UKR parliament, Google English)


You say we are missing, but we are doing exactly what Jolly said Canada does best. Ensure diplomacy is happening and convening alliances. Word salad...world salad...etc etc.


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Lookit who's missing from this "Joint statement “On urgent need to modernize Ukraine's air defense” (links to UKR parliament, Google English)
> View attachment 69616


You mean the Italians, Spanish, Portuguese and the Greeks?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Quirky said:


> You say we are missing, but we are doing exactly what Jolly said Canada does best. Ensure diplomacy is happening and convening alliances. Word salad...world salad...etc etc.


If I was convinced any back-rooming Canada could do would help, I may be less cynical.   If the main players were closer to the middle, so to speak, I'm sure there's folks in the government who could nudge them together.  These main players, though?  Not bloody likely ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> You mean the Italians, Spanish, Portuguese and the Greeks?


Obviously a northern European coalition, then ....


----------



## RangerRay

The Bread Guy said:


> Lookit who's missing from this "Joint statement “On urgent need to modernize Ukraine's air defense” (links to UKR parliament, Google English)
> View attachment 69616


To be fair, it’s a tiny list of legislators. I don’t recognize any of the American or British names.


----------



## The Bread Guy

RangerRay said:


> To be fair, it’s a tiny list of legislators. I don’t recognize any of the American or British names.


Granted - but if that's the case, nobody from 150+ Liberals in the House was available to sign on?  Still interesting not seeing Canada's flag there.


----------



## YZT580

The Bread Guy said:


> Granted - but if that's the case, nobody from 150+ Liberals in the House was available to sign on?  Still interesting not seeing Canada's flag there.


and perhaps it wasn't considered necessary to ask us to sign at all.


----------



## Blackadder1916

Soldier35 said:


> The modernized Russian UAV Outpost-R struck the warehouses of Ukraine
> 
> The air strike was carried out by a pair of Su-25 attack aircraft on ammunition depots of the Ukrainian army
> 
> Уничтожение российским вертолетом Ка-52 танка Т-64 Украины
> 
> (Links to youtube removed)





Soldier35 said:


> The captured Ukrainian BTR-4 was taken to Russia for study, footage of the armored personnel carrier appeared on social networks. Technically, the APC itself is not of interest, the military is interested in the electronic filling of the machine, since the BTR-4 is assembled taking into account NATO standards and contains electronic components of the alliance.
> 
> (Links to youtube removed)



A visit from Ivan?









						Soldier35
					






					army.ca
				





> Soldier35​Guest
> Joined Today at 01:36
> Last seen Today at 01:45
> 
> Messages 2



It's somewhat comforting to think that they consider Army.ca is worthy of a visit, but then a letdown that the worth is limited to 9 minutes.  If they're going to screw around with us, they could at least stay long enough to achieve orgasm (13.41 minutes on average).


----------



## Colin Parkinson

TacticalTea said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505624341970657281
> You got it, Germany, keep going... Almost there!


And this is what Poland was doing at least 2 years ago in preparation for this event.


----------



## KevinB

Translation: Soldiers of the Royal Brigade continue the hunting season for Russian military equipment. Minus three tanks T-72, BTR-82, and MTLB occupiers in Luhansk region. In the photo you can see the Royal Infantry next to the lined T-72 tank.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505957197305557000


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505918567631720454


----------



## KevinB

Ukrainian Army Artillery in action.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505857051968352257


----------



## KevinB

More captured goodies 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505855141697789956


----------



## KevinB

More Darth Trolling 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505827865098600452


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505957355023962114


----------



## Remius

Soldier35.

New member.  With only 2 posts total above in the Ukraine thread.  Posted at 3:30 am.

Nothing odd about that…


----------



## KevinB

2 for 1

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505929960615297030


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505929112346628105


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> BTR-4 uses a 30mm, seems to be pretty effective



When are we dumping the TAPV for a big buy of BTR-4s then?


----------



## KevinB

daftandbarmy said:


> When are we dumping the TAPV for a big buy of BTR-4s then?


Send him this 





						CV90
					

We designed the CV90 with a clear vision: to create a vehicle that provides high tactical and strategic mobility, air defence, anti-tank capability, high survivability and protection in any terrain or tactical environment.




					www.baesystems.com


----------



## HiTechComms

It appears that Russian encirclement of Ukrainian armed forces on the west flank of Donbas is going to be brutal outcome. Maybe Russians will not need to capture Kyiv once that Army group is destroyed.  Coming from Financial Times I don't think any one can blame Russian Propaganda. Soviet and previously mentioned strategy doctrine at work, Ukraine eastern group has 60k soldiers in that area, its gone be a meat grinder. 




__





						archive.ph
					





					archive.ph


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505918567631720454



IIRC that would have to be a 'Peacemaking' mission, not a 'Peacekeeping' mission though...


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505967975341432839


----------



## Czech_pivo

HiTechComms said:


> It appears that Russian encirclement of Ukrainian armed forces on the west flank of Donbas is going to be brutal outcome. Maybe Russians will not need to capture Kyiv once that Army group is destroyed.  Coming from Financial Times I don't think any one can blame Russian Propaganda. Soviet and previously mentioned strategy doctrine at work, Ukraine eastern group has 60k soldiers in that area, its gone be a meat grinder.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> archive.ph
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> archive.ph


Each day that goes by allows the Ukrainians to continue to train and arm fresh new troops in central/western Ukraine. Don't be surprised if dozens and dozens of armoured vehicles from Ukraine's many friends are not crossing into Ukraine regularly to rearm and stand up brand new units. 
Ukraine can do a complete call up of all men between 18-60 in order to defend, Russia cannot do so as the population would not allow it to happen.  As long as Ukraine's allies continue to supply weapons and food, they will out-supply Russia in the end.  The Russian economy is 50% the size of Canada's with 4X the population.  They are too poor, it will result in the same thing that broke the SU back in the 1980's, the West can out spend them.


----------



## KevinB

daftandbarmy said:


> IIRC that would have to be a 'Peacemaking' mission, not a 'Peacekeeping' mission though...


Consider it a Special Peacekeeping Mission


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505967975341432839


These guys are going to be become immensely poorer over the next 1-2 decades. I'll be telling my grandkids, "Eat all the food on your plate, there are hungry kids in Belarus and Russia that would kill for you food.'


----------



## KevinB

Number is reported to be very accurate FWIW...
No idea on source legitimacy - but I have heard similar numbers mentioned elsewhere.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505961677371621379


----------



## Remius

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505961677371621379


If those numbers are accurate or even close to accurate, I don’t know how Russia keeps going.  It might be a t matter of weeks before it can’t do anything.


----------



## TacticalTea

Blackadder1916 said:


> A visit from Ivan?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Soldier35
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> army.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It's somewhat comforting to think that they consider Army.ca is worthy of a visit, but then a letdown that the worth is limited to 9 minutes.  If they're going to screw around with us, they could at least stay long enough to achieve orgasm (13.41 minutes on average).


I saw the propaganda-style thumbnails and immediately thought "huh, who the hell is that guy..."


KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505967975341432839


Sounds like ample justification for Central Europe to invade Belarus.


----------



## KevinB

Remius said:


> If those numbers are accurate or even close to accurate, I don’t know how Russia keeps going.  It might be a t matter of weeks before it can’t do anything.


I edited my comment to add that the numbers have been banded about elsewhere by people/places that should know fairly well.


----------



## Remius

KevinB said:


> I edited my comment to add that the numbers have been banded about elsewhere by people/places that should know fairly well.


That estimate is even higher than Ukraine’s purported count.

Crazy.  No wonder morale is reported being in the toilet.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505971865281613826


----------



## Czech_pivo

Remius said:


> That estimate is even higher that Ukraines purported count.
> 
> Crazy.  No wonder morale is reported being in the toilet.


Another key factor is 1st April. Its the end date of the current Conscript rotation.  If they extend it past 1st April then they will have to acknowledge that Conscripts are fighting in Ukraine and risk the angry of all those Russian Mothers.

The other item related to this is the new batch of Conscripts will have 0 military training and will add no value whatsoever to Russia's troop strength in Ukraine.

On 10 days things will get alot worse in terms of options for the RA.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> It appears that Russian encirclement of Ukrainian armed forces on the west flank of Donbas is going to be brutal outcome.



If only the Russians could advance more than a couple hundred km from their railheads/ports.  Maybe when the ground firms up in May.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Brad Sallows said:


> If only the Russians could advance more than a couple hundred km from their railheads/ports.  Maybe when the ground firms up in May.


They won't have an army by May.....


----------



## Remius

Brad Sallows said:


> If only the Russians could advance more than a couple hundred km from their railheads/ports.  Maybe when the ground firms up in May.


At this rate there won’t be much left of the Russians come May.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> Ukrainian Army Artillery in action.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505857051968352257



2S7 Pion - 40 km 203mm?  
99 in service if Wiki can be believed








						List of equipment of the Ukrainian Ground Forces - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				







Mass46.5 tonsLength10.5 m (34 ft 5 in)Width3.38 m (11 ft 1 in)Height3 m (9 ft 10 in)Crew7Caliber203 mmBarrels1Effective firing range37.5km-47.5kmArmor10mm max.Main
armament203 mm 2A44 gunEngineV-46-I V12 turbocharged diesel
840 hpSuspensiontorsion barOperational
rangeRoad: 650 km (400 mi)Maximum speed50 km/h (31 mph)


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> 2S7 Pion - 40 km 203mm?
> 99 in service if Wiki can be believed
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> List of equipment of the Ukrainian Ground Forces - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 69619
> 
> Mass46.5 tonsLength10.5 m (34 ft 5 in)Width3.38 m (11 ft 1 in)Height3 m (9 ft 10 in)Crew7Caliber203 mmBarrels1Effective firing range37.5km-47.5kmArmor10mm max.Main
> armament203 mm 2A44 gunEngineV-46-I V12 turbocharged diesel
> 840 hpSuspensiontorsion barOperational
> rangeRoad: 650 km (400 mi)Maximum speed50 km/h (31 mph)


55km with RAP


----------



## HiTechComms

Czech_pivo said:


> Each day that goes by allows the Ukrainians to continue to train and arm fresh new troops in central/western Ukraine. Don't be surprised if dozens and dozens of armoured vehicles from Ukraine's many friends are not crossing into Ukraine regularly to rearm and stand up brand new units.
> Ukraine can do a complete call up of all men between 18-60 in order to defend, Russia cannot do so as the population would not allow it to happen.  As long as Ukraine's allies continue to supply weapons and food, they will out-supply Russia in the end.  The Russian economy is 50% the size of Canada's with 4X the population.  They are too poor, it will result in the same thing that broke the SU back in the 1980's, the West can out spend them.


I think there is some wishful thinking that Ukraine will fight this war and win. This will become the meat grinder once Russian encircles the Eastern Ukrainian army (Estimated 60K size) which will  be cut off from resupplies. They will bomb the shit out of them at a range that Ukrainians will not be able to do anything about. You look at the strategic map of Ukraine, Russian forces are encircling all their targets slowly but surely. They are bombing certain parts of suspected Ukrainian forces but are on the most part leaving civilian infrastructure in place. Why would they leave running water, electricity, internet, heat and most importantly gas to Ukraine and Europe. In addition Russian and Ukrainians like it or not have a lot in common unlike what was in the middle east. American did none of this in Afghanistan and Iraq, they bombed the shit out of everything and then spear headed in.  This is an old fashioned war rather then the high tech, superiority war that the west has fought for a long time.

The terrible cost will be the 18-60 years old's will be either killed or taken prisoners and will only deprive Ukraine of a workforce once this was is over. It seems like a Noble sacrifice and it is but it is a costly one but even the Poles and French during WW2 capitulated. The Russian will either destroy them or they will surrender. Telling young untrained men to die for a propaganda push is evil. Russia is not going to have concentration camps like the Nazis. I agree with you that what they are doing is wrong but when did right and wrong ever matter when other countries invade other sovereign nations?

The sanctions are not having the effect the west was hoping, Rubble is starting to stabilize the Russian has set its markers for inflation to 24% and return to normal economic function by 2023. Russia has worked hard to separate it self from the west in preparation for this. Europe is now freaking out about energy, Germans, UK, are both heading to middle east to try and secure LNG and are failing and I think EU is gone be in a world of economic hurt for the next two years. Russia is not defaulting on their debts either, the Americans don't want this via sanctions of Russian central bank from SWIFT through technical means. Russians just recently made a payment on their bonds via an AMERICAN BANK.  Russia is still delivering on their contracts to the EU on their gas but they are out 2 years of completing their Eastbound pipelines towards India and China where the market is 2.7 billion people vs the .5 billion in EU. I think the Russians are confident they can and will weather this.  India just committed to buying from Russia so has China. Russians are strategically well placed to make a fortune on energy exports.

Russia seems to have a hardon for killing the Foreign fighters should be a warning sign. They have used their hypersonic  missiles to destroy half a billion dollars of Western weapons. These might not even ever end up in the war but on the black market. The news is full of stories how the fighters are fleeing.  Russians must have some damn good intel.








						Russia uses hypersonic missiles in strike on Ukraine arms depot
					

Russia said on Saturday it had used hypersonic Kinzhal (Dagger) missiles to destroy a large weapons depot in Ukraine's western Ivano-Frankivsk region.  Russia's Interfax news agency said it was the first time Russia had deployed the hypersonic Kinzhal system since it sent its troops into Ukraine...




					news.yahoo.com
				




I think the western media, twitter are all propaganda and they are not painting an accurate picture of what is actually happening. This is going badly for the Ukrainians and the west powers. This is not just gone be a black eye on the world stage for the west this will be an embarrassment on another level, the western hegemony at this point will look like its not an invincible power.

Disagree with me or not call me a troll or a Russian fanboy but the writing is on the wall, no side line cheerleading will change the fact Russia will win. Ukraine's people will pay in blood while the west cheers on their sacrifices while sending them weapons. This shit is not about I stand with Ukraine its more I stand with Raytheon/General Dynamics etc..


----------



## suffolkowner

KevinB said:


> Number is reported to be very accurate FWIW...
> No idea on source legitimacy - but I have heard similar numbers mentioned elsewhere.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505961677371621379


just saw this on twitter

"Komsomolskaya Pravda, the pro-Kremlin tabloid, says that according to Russian ministry of defense numbers, 9,861 Russian soldiers died in Ukraine and 16,153 were injured. The last official Russian KIA figure, on March 2, was 498. Fascinating that someone posted the leaked number."


----------



## TacticalTea

Kirkhill said:


> 2S7 Pion - 40 km 203mm?
> 99 in service if Wiki can be believed
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> List of equipment of the Ukrainian Ground Forces - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org


If I watched footage of SPGs in action for four hours I would have to consult a physician.


----------



## suffolkowner

HiTechComms said:


> I think there is some wishful thinking that Ukraine will fight this war and win. This will become the meat grinder once Russian encircles the Eastern Ukrainian army (Estimated 60K size) which will  be cut off from resupplies. They will bomb the shit out of them at a range that Ukrainians will not be able to do anything about. You look at the strategic map of Ukraine, Russian forces are encircling all their targets slowly but surely. They are bombing certain parts of suspected Ukrainian forces but are on the most part leaving civilian infrastructure in place. Why would they leave running water, electricity, internet, heat and most importantly gas to Ukraine and Europe. In addition Russian and Ukrainians like it or not have a lot in common unlike what was in the middle east. American did none of this in Afghanistan and Iraq, they bombed the shit out of everything and then spear headed in.  This is an old fashioned war rather then the high tech, superiority war that the west has fought for a long time.
> 
> The terrible cost will be the 18-60 years old's will be either killed or taken prisoners and will only deprive Ukraine of a workforce once this was is over. It seems like a Noble sacrifice and it is but it is a costly one but even the Poles and French during WW2 capitulated. The Russian will either destroy them or they will surrender. Telling young untrained men to die for a propaganda push is evil. Russia is not going to have concentration camps like the Nazis. I agree with you that what they are doing is wrong but when did right and wrong ever matter when other countries invade other sovereign nations?
> 
> The sanctions are not having the effect the west was hoping, Rubble is starting to stabilize the Russian has set its markers for inflation to 24% and return to normal economic function by 2023. Russia has worked hard to separate it self from the west in preparation for this. Europe is now freaking out about energy, Germans, UK, are both heading to middle east to try and secure LNG and are failing and I think EU is gone be in a world of economic hurt for the next two years. Russia is not defaulting on their debts either, the Americans don't want this via sanctions of Russian central bank from SWIFT through technical means. Russians just recently made a payment on their bonds via an AMERICAN BANK.  Russia is still delivering on their contracts to the EU on their gas but they are out 2 years of completing their Eastbound pipelines towards India and China where the market is 2.7 billion people vs the .5 billion in EU. I think the Russians are confident they can and will weather this.  India just committed to buying from Russia so has China. Russians are strategically well placed to make a fortune on energy exports.
> 
> Russia seems to have a hardon for killing the Foreign fighters should be a warning sign. They have used their hypersonic  missiles to destroy half a billion dollars of Western weapons. These might not even ever end up in the war but on the black market. The news is full of stories how the fighters are fleeing.  Russians must have some damn good intel.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia uses hypersonic missiles in strike on Ukraine arms depot
> 
> 
> Russia said on Saturday it had used hypersonic Kinzhal (Dagger) missiles to destroy a large weapons depot in Ukraine's western Ivano-Frankivsk region.  Russia's Interfax news agency said it was the first time Russia had deployed the hypersonic Kinzhal system since it sent its troops into Ukraine...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I think the western media, twitter are all propaganda and they are not painting an accurate picture of what is actually happening. This is going badly for the Ukrainians and the west powers. This is not just gone be a black eye on the world stage for the west this will be an embarrassment on another level, the western hegemony at this point will look like its not an invincible power.
> 
> Disagree with me or not call me a troll or a Russian fanboy but the writing is on the wall, no side line cheerleading will change the fact Russia will win. Ukraine's people will pay in blood while the west cheers on their sacrifices while sending them weapons. This shit is not about I stand with Ukraine its more I stand with Raytheon/General Dynamics etc..


Yeah Russia would never have concentration camps. Imagine in WW2 cheering for the enemy. Whats a win for Russia? Survival is a win for Ukraine. The Russians in one month have sustained losses equivalent to their entire time in Afghanistan. The only thing we dont really know is how many Ukrainians have been lost and I expect that number is very high as well. As long as the Ukrainians continue to fight I believe the least we can do is support them in what little way we are doing. I will continue to applaud Ukrainian successes and decry Russian ones. As Russia is in the wrong here in every conceivable way. But thanks for pointing out once again that Russia is bigger than Ukraine


----------



## Czech_pivo

HiTechComms said:


> I think there is some wishful thinking that Ukraine will fight this war and win. This will become the meat grinder once Russian encircles the Eastern Ukrainian army (Estimated 60K size) which will  be cut off from resupplies. They will bomb the shit out of them at a range that Ukrainians will not be able to do anything about. You look at the strategic map of Ukraine, Russian forces are encircling all their targets slowly but surely. They are bombing certain parts of suspected Ukrainian forces but are on the most part leaving civilian infrastructure in place. Why would they leave running water, electricity, internet, heat and most importantly gas to Ukraine and Europe. In addition Russian and Ukrainians like it or not have a lot in common unlike what was in the middle east. American did none of this in Afghanistan and Iraq, they bombed the shit out of everything and then spear headed in.  This is an old fashioned war rather then the high tech, superiority war that the west has fought for a long time.
> 
> The terrible cost will be the 18-60 years old's will be either killed or taken prisoners and will only deprive Ukraine of a workforce once this was is over. It seems like a Noble sacrifice and it is but it is a costly one but even the Poles and French during WW2 capitulated. The Russian will either destroy them or they will surrender. Telling young untrained men to die for a propaganda push is evil. Russia is not going to have concentration camps like the Nazis. I agree with you that what they are doing is wrong but when did right and wrong ever matter when other countries invade other sovereign nations?
> 
> The sanctions are not having the effect the west was hoping, Rubble is starting to stabilize the Russian has set its markers for inflation to 24% and return to normal economic function by 2023. Russia has worked hard to separate it self from the west in preparation for this. Europe is now freaking out about energy, Germans, UK, are both heading to middle east to try and secure LNG and are failing and I think EU is gone be in a world of economic hurt for the next two years. Russia is not defaulting on their debts either, the Americans don't want this via sanctions of Russian central bank from SWIFT through technical means. Russians just recently made a payment on their bonds via an AMERICAN BANK.  Russia is still delivering on their contracts to the EU on their gas but they are out 2 years of completing their Eastbound pipelines towards India and China where the market is 2.7 billion people vs the .5 billion in EU. I think the Russians are confident they can and will weather this.  India just committed to buying from Russia so has China. Russians are strategically well placed to make a fortune on energy exports.
> 
> Russia seems to have a hardon for killing the Foreign fighters should be a warning sign. They have used their hypersonic  missiles to destroy half a billion dollars of Western weapons. These might not even ever end up in the war but on the black market. The news is full of stories how the fighters are fleeing.  Russians must have some damn good intel.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia uses hypersonic missiles in strike on Ukraine arms depot
> 
> 
> Russia said on Saturday it had used hypersonic Kinzhal (Dagger) missiles to destroy a large weapons depot in Ukraine's western Ivano-Frankivsk region.  Russia's Interfax news agency said it was the first time Russia had deployed the hypersonic Kinzhal system since it sent its troops into Ukraine...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I think the western media, twitter are all propaganda and they are not painting an accurate picture of what is actually happening. This is going badly for the Ukrainians and the west powers. This is not just gone be a black eye on the world stage for the west this will be an embarrassment on another level, the western hegemony at this point will look like its not an invincible power.
> 
> Disagree with me or not call me a troll or a Russian fanboy but the writing is on the wall, no side line cheerleading will change the fact Russia will win. Ukraine's people will pay in blood while the west cheers on their sacrifices while sending them weapons. This shit is not about I stand with Ukraine its more I stand with Raytheon/General Dynamics etc..


I don't even know where to start on this ramble.  I'll pick just one or two and let others have a go at this as I'm sure they'll be itching to do so.

1) _"Telling young untrained men to die for a propaganda push is evil" _- Are you talking about the thousands of Conscripts that the Russians threw into Ukraine, telling them that they were going on a training exercise or telling them that the Ukrainians would welcome with open arms? _ What a load of shit this is.

2) _"The sanctions are not having the effect the west was hoping"_  - Are you freaking kidding? 




__





						Ukraine crisis: Russian airlines Aeroflot halts all international flights from March 8
					

Moscow [Russia], March 5 (ANI): Russian flag carrier Aeroflot halted all international flights from March 8, reported The Moscow Times on Saturday citing news agencies. Earlier in the day, Russia’s Defense Ministry announced a ceasefire to allow civilians in the port city of Mariupol and the...




					theprint.in
				











						Russian Shoppers Are Literally Fighting Each Other for Sugar
					

In scenes reminiscent of the last days of the Soviet Union, Russians are scrambling to get their hands on basic goods.




					www.vice.com
				











						Kremlin Warns Against Panic Buying as Food Prices Rise Fast - The Moscow Times
					

The Kremlin has told Russians not to panic buy staple goods such as sugar and buckwheat as prices rise at a record rate and shortages have been reported across the country.“Russians have absolutely no need to run to the shops and buy-up buckwheat, sugar and toilet paper,” Kremlin spokesman...




					www.themoscowtimes.com
				











						Brain drain: Thousands of young draft-fearing digital nomads flee Russia and Belarus for Georgia
					

Some will stay as the Caucasus country tries to build its IT industry, but many want to move on to the EU — at least until Putin is no longer in power




					www.theglobeandmail.com
				











						‘I don’t want to live in a bigger North Korea’: Russian brain drain as the young flee Putin
					

As its economy tanks, thousands escape to Finland, Georgia, Armenia and beyond




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				




I know others will want to jump in on this so I will stop now.....enjoy guys.


----------



## Quirky

Czech_pivo said:


> I know others will want to jump in on this so I will stop now.....enjoy guys.


I'm with HTC in welcoming our new Russian overlords.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505978671336722435


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> I don't even know where to start on this ramble.  I'll pick just one or two and let others have a go at this as I'm sure they'll be itching to do so.
> 
> 1) _"Telling young untrained men to die for a propaganda push is evil" _- Are you talking about the thousands of Conscripts that the Russians threw into Ukraine, telling them that they were going on a training exercise or telling them that the Ukrainians would welcome with open arms? _ What a load of shit this is.
> 
> 2) _"The sanctions are not having the effect the west was hoping"_  - Are you freaking kidding?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine crisis: Russian airlines Aeroflot halts all international flights from March 8
> 
> 
> Moscow [Russia], March 5 (ANI): Russian flag carrier Aeroflot halted all international flights from March 8, reported The Moscow Times on Saturday citing news agencies. Earlier in the day, Russia’s Defense Ministry announced a ceasefire to allow civilians in the port city of Mariupol and the...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> theprint.in
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian Shoppers Are Literally Fighting Each Other for Sugar
> 
> 
> In scenes reminiscent of the last days of the Soviet Union, Russians are scrambling to get their hands on basic goods.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.vice.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Kremlin Warns Against Panic Buying as Food Prices Rise Fast - The Moscow Times
> 
> 
> The Kremlin has told Russians not to panic buy staple goods such as sugar and buckwheat as prices rise at a record rate and shortages have been reported across the country.“Russians have absolutely no need to run to the shops and buy-up buckwheat, sugar and toilet paper,” Kremlin spokesman...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.themoscowtimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Brain drain: Thousands of young draft-fearing digital nomads flee Russia and Belarus for Georgia
> 
> 
> Some will stay as the Caucasus country tries to build its IT industry, but many want to move on to the EU — at least until Putin is no longer in power
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theglobeandmail.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ‘I don’t want to live in a bigger North Korea’: Russian brain drain as the young flee Putin
> 
> 
> As its economy tanks, thousands escape to Finland, Georgia, Armenia and beyond
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.telegraph.co.uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I know others will want to jump in on this so I will stop now.....enjoy guys.


You had better do it, lest I be banned again.


----------



## Czech_pivo

suffolkowner said:


> Yeah Russia would never have concentration camps. Imagine in WW2 cheering for the enemy. Whats a win for Russia? Survival is a win for Ukraine. The Russians in one month have sustained losses equivalent to their entire time in Afghanistan. The only thing we dont really know is how many Ukrainians have been lost and I expect that number is very high as well. As long as the Ukrainians continue to fight I believe the least we can do is support them in what little way we are doing. I will continue to applaud Ukrainian successes and decry Russian ones. As Russia is in the wrong here in every conceivable way. But thanks for pointing out once again that Russia is bigger than Ukraine


This is the type of Poles that I know and associate with, those that hate Communists and didn't compromise their morals from 1945 to 1989.










						August Emil Fieldorf - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




Fieldorf commanded his regiment during the Polish September Campaign
...he attempted to get to France, but was stopped on the Slovak border. He was interned in October 1939, but fled several weeks later from a camp and reached France via Hungary, where he joined the newly-forming Polish Armed Forces in the West.
...promoted to full colonel in May 1940. In September of that year, he was smuggled back to occupied Poland as the first emissary of the Polish government-in-exile, under the _nom de guerre_ *"Nil"* which he had chosen for himself. His circuitous route back to Poland took him through South Africa, and by air, over Rhodesia, Sudan, and Egypt, then on to Romania, and by train to Poland
Shortly before the collapse of the Warsaw Uprising on 28 September 1944, he was promoted to the rank of brigadier general
On 7 March 1945, Fieldorf was arrested by the Soviet NKVD.....sent to a forced labour camp in the Ural Mountains until 1947...
The government, which was persecuting former resistance members loyal to the London-based government-in-exile offered an amnesty to them, in 1948. Not knowing that the amnesty was a sham
...he refused to collaborate with the Communist security services, even under torture. General Fieldorf's brutal interrogations were personally supervised by MBP colonel Józef Różański. Kazimierz Gorski, Polish secret police....
Fieldorf was accused by prosecutor Helena Wolińska-Brus of being a "fascist-Hitlerite criminal"  _(hmmm, where have I heard similar language like this before.....)_
In 1953, he was executed by the communist regime...
General Fieldorf's body was never returned to his family, and was buried in a location which remains unknown. In 2009, an article in a British _Telegraph_ newspaper suggested that Fieldorf was buried in a mass grave in a Warsaw cemetery, together with the remains of 248 other murdered Polish non-communists


----------



## Kirkhill

suffolkowner said:


> just saw this on twitter
> 
> "Komsomolskaya Pravda, the pro-Kremlin tabloid, says that according to Russian ministry of defense numbers, 9,861 Russian soldiers died in Ukraine and 16,153 were injured. The last official Russian KIA figure, on March 2, was 498. Fascinating that someone posted the leaked number."



Another sign of the Putin cadre losing its grip?


----------



## Quirky

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505978671336722435



Blackmail NATO into using nuclear weapons and do whatever you want. 

Interfere with our special military operation....nuke for you.
Supply the nazis in Ukraine with weapons....nuke for you.
Beat us in Olympic hockey....nuke for you.

Time to call their bluff or this expansion will never end.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Disagree with me or not call me a troll or a Russian fanboy but the writing is on the wall



Yes, yes, yes, and no.  Russia made its play for a quick decision and failed.


----------



## OldSolduer

suffolkowner said:


> Yeah Russia would never have concentration camps.


I'm doing a series on Soviet leadership on YouTube. The gulag was every bit as nasty as described by those who survived them. Lenin started them and Stalin expanded them.

"Come Comrade Dissident is time for  little vacation for you"

FYI Pravda was at one time edited by Comrade Joe. Stalin that is. Not Biden lol


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505976094691934218


----------



## MilEME09

So does this mean it's not WW3? Just WW2 part 2 coming soon?



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505947267315941377


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Russia gambled and is getting undressed by a highly motivated, heavily equipped, defending force. It doesn't help that they have dropped the ball on literally every aspect of modern warfare: Logistical support, command and control, EMSEC (as well as COMSEC, OPSEC, INFOSEC), urban warfare, combined arms coordination, and .. you know.... violating LOAC and the Geneva conventions on an almost hourly timetable.

Now that the money has stopped, I don't see how Russia can sustain such offensive operations (and I use the term loosely) as they are. Couple in the man-power and logistics involved in subduing and occupying a hostile civilian population and you're toast. 

Baffling and infuriating to say the least.


----------



## RaceAddict

tomydoom said:


> The BBC later updated their story to include that information, however the cosmonauts have not confirmed that is the motivation either.



I would imagine the cosmonauts are smart enough to realize they have to live up there - and rely completely on each other - for a few months with Americans and a German (I think) so whatever their motivation, it's best just to get on with their work.


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> So does this mean it's not WW3? Just WW2 part 2 coming soon?
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505947267315941377




Or WW1 part 3?

Or the Russo-Japanese War part 4?


----------



## Halifax Tar

Kirkhill said:


> Or WW1 part 3?
> 
> Or the Russo-Japanese War part 4?



I cant wait to see the Battle of Tsushima pardt deux 








						Battle of Tsushima - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## TacticalTea

Occupants Illegally took More Than 2 Thousand Children from Ukraine to Russia in one day
					

Occupants Illegally took More Than 2 Thousand Children from Ukraine to Russia in one day




					tsn.ua
				




Genocide. Just. Fucking. Great...


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Remius said:


> Soldier35.
> 
> New member.  With only 2 posts total above in the Ukraine thread.  Posted at 3:30 am.
> 
> Nothing odd about that…



If we could get them to do a 'sizing', we'd be able to figure out *EXACTLY* who s/he is...

"from the right.....number!"


----------



## Mills Bomb

TacticalTea said:


> Occupants Illegally took More Than 2 Thousand Children from Ukraine to Russia in one day
> 
> 
> Occupants Illegally took More Than 2 Thousand Children from Ukraine to Russia in one day
> 
> 
> 
> 
> tsn.ua
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Genocide. Just. Fucking. Great...



Just another drop in the bucket. This entire "special operation" is a massive war crime.


----------



## OldSolduer

Remius said:


> If those numbers are accurate or even close to accurate, I don’t know how Russia keeps going.  It might be a t matter of weeks before it can’t do anything.


Think like a Russian who is heavily influenced by Soviet doctrine. Casualties are irrelevant. 

"One death is a tragedy, a million deaths are a statistic"


----------



## Remius

OldSolduer said:


> Think like a Russian who is heavily influenced by Soviet doctrine. Casualties are irrelevant.
> 
> "One death is a tragedy, a million deaths are a statistic"


That works if you actually have the troops to do that.


----------



## OldSolduer

Remius said:


> That works if you actually have the troops to do that.


In this you are correct. I will admit I am not current on the strength of the Russian Forces.


----------



## Haggis

OldSolduer said:


> In this you are correct. I will admit I am not current on the strength of the Russian Forces.


Declining daily.


----------



## Remius

Researchers say Russia's invasion reaching deadly stalemate
					

"Stalemate will likely be very violent and bloody," writes the Institute for the Study of War.




					www.axios.com
				




Short and to the point.  No side is going to win.  But Russia’s initial plan and campaign has been defeated.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Haggis said:


> Declining daily.


Kind of like a going out of business sale.


----------



## Brad Sallows

They don't have the troops for that.  They never did.  Ill-judged "human wave" tactics were better than nothing early in the war when they were struggling to reorganize and reconstitute and learn to fight the Germans.  By the latest part of the war - roughly, I think, from entering Poland (again) - the rifle divisions were seriously short of manpower (divisions roughly equivalent to regiments, sometimes less).  Part of the myth that grew up around Russian artillery is a consequence of having to substitute weight of firepower for declining manpower.


----------



## The Bread Guy

HiTechComms said:


> ... Russia is not going to have concentration camps like the Nazis ...


Sorry to cherrypick, HTC, but we'll have to agree to disagree on the prospect of this happening, given that part of the world's ... experience in such endeavours.

Meanwhile, this evening's RUS MoD update (safe PDF of text attached) kicks off with "the latest" from Mariupol ....


> The Kiev regime has once again shown its true face and complete indifference to the human lives of more than 130,000 innocent citizens of its country who are held captive by the crazed terrorist gangs in Mariupol.  By blocking the corridors for civilians to exit, the nationalists deprive them of the opportunity to escape, leaving them in the combat zone as a "human shield". And everyone who tries to evacuate on their own is being bullied everywhere or viciously shot in the back.
> 
> At the same time, against the background of Kiev's official statement about the refusal to carry out a humanitarian operation, and the militants to lay down their arms, they hypocritically instructed nationalist battalions to leave the city in small groups under the guise of civilians, dressed in civilian clothes, using any opportunities, including along humanitarian corridors. And the bandits immediately began to carry out this order.
> 
> So, on March 20, 2022, the terrorists of Azov battalion killed the parents of two minor children and, hiding behind the same children, tried to drive a car belonging to the family along the humanitarian corridor to Zaporozhye, but they were identified and promptly detained by Russian servicemen, and the children were rescued and the necessary assistance is being provided to them ...


A couple of more boxes crossed on my bingo card ...


----------



## Skysix

rmc_wannabe said:


> Russia gambled and is getting undressed by a highly motivated, heavily equipped, defending force. It doesn't help that they have dropped the ball on literally every aspect of modern warfare: Logistical support, command and control, EMSEC (as well as COMSEC, OPSEC, INFOSEC), urban warfare, combined arms coordination, and .. you know.... violating LOAC and the Geneva conventions on an almost hourly timetable.
> 
> Now that the money has stopped, I don't see how Russia can sustain such offensive operations (and I use the term loosely) as they are. Couple in the man-power and logistics involved in subduing and occupying a hostile civilian population and you're toast.
> 
> Baffling and infuriating to say the least.


Yet the West is still paying millions a day for Russian oil and gas....despite the sanctions.


----------



## HiTechComms

The Bread Guy said:


> Sorry to cherrypick, HTC, but we'll have to agree to disagree on the prospect of this happening, given that part of the world's ... experience in such endeavours.
> 
> Meanwhile, this evening's RUS MoD update (safe PDF of text attached) kicks off with "the latest" from Mariupol ....
> 
> A couple of more boxes crossed on my bingo card ...
> View attachment 69625.


Your telling me the Ukrainians are fighting the soviets? They are not the Soviets. 

I don't believe a single thing Media is peddling on either side. I think in 4-6 weeks this will most likely start winding down.


----------



## HiTechComms

Skysix said:


> Yet the West is still paying millions a day for Russian oil and gas....despite the sanctions.


Yep.. Some also think that oil is best used as face paint rather then being in pipelines. 

The biggest customers of Russian oil are going to be in Asia. These sanctions has turned into a circular firing squad for Europe.

I am betting Germans will start squeeling first as their industry starts suffering under the energy costs.


----------



## suffolkowner

HiTechComms said:


> Your telling me the Ukrainians are fighting the soviets? They are not the Soviets.
> 
> I don't believe a single thing Media is peddling on either side. I think in 4-6 weeks this will most likely start winding down.


you should tell that to putin


----------



## Brad Sallows

All the more reason to punt them out of the USSR's permanent security council seat and just end it.


----------



## tomydoom

RaceAddict said:


> I would imagine the cosmonauts are smart enough to realize they have to live up there - and rely completely on each other - for a few months with Americans and a German (I think) so whatever their motivation, it's best just to get on with their work.


I would also imagine, they are leaving ambiguities as they want to continue breathing after returning to warm embrace of mother Russia.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

HiTechComms said:


> Your telling me the Ukrainians are fighting the soviets? They are not the Soviets.



Somebody didn't get that email?









						Video shows Russian troops brandishing Soviet flag in Ukraine
					

Heavily armed Russian troops have been filmed parading a Soviet Union flag as dozens of tanks and armored vehicles allegedly rolled through war-torn Ukraine.




					nypost.com


----------



## HiTechComms

Brad Sallows said:


> All the more reason to punt them out of the USSR's permanent security council seat and just end it.


Still will not change the fact they have Nukes. Better to have the option for conversation/diplomatic option then nothing.


----------



## HiTechComms

Eye In The Sky said:


> Somebody didn't get that email?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Video shows Russian troops brandishing Soviet flag in Ukraine
> 
> 
> Heavily armed Russian troops have been filmed parading a Soviet Union flag as dozens of tanks and armored vehicles allegedly rolled through war-torn Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nypost.com


So a bunch of soldiers are acting like morons. You think that the western armies are free of doing stupid shit in the field? Not defending but soldiers do stupid shit.. Just go to TikTok.  I mean didn't BMQ just get cancelled cause some dipshits circulated inappropriate photos?

War is stupid, war is costly. Nothing I do right now makes a difference. The best we can hope for that WW3 will not start.


----------



## suffolkowner

HiTechComms said:


> Yep.. Some also think that oil is best used as face paint rather then being in pipelines.
> 
> The biggest customers of Russian oil are going to be in Asia. These sanctions has turned into a circular firing squad for Europe.
> 
> I am betting Germans will start squeeling first as their industry starts suffering under the energy costs.


easily solved just blow the pipelines


----------



## Furniture

HiTechComms said:


> So a bunch of soldiers are acting like morons. You think that the western armies are free of doing stupid shit in the field? Not defending but soldiers do stupid shit.. Just go to TikTok.  I mean didn't BMQ just get cancelled cause some dipshits circulated inappropriate photos?
> 
> War is stupid, war is costly. Nothing I do right now makes a difference. The best we can hope for that WW3 will not start.


Except when people in the CAF do stupid things, the CAF doesn't use it in official videos.


----------



## The Bread Guy

HiTechComms said:


> Your telling me the Ukrainians are fighting the soviets? They are not the Soviets.


If the same Russian Federation threatened to chase deserters from the Soviet military after the USSR broke up, allows public images of USSR flags on Russian military vehicles  (as others have mentioned - unless you think the RUS MoD posted a deep fake video on its own YT channel) and insists on keeping the USSR's permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council, they may not BE the USSR, but you can't blame someone for thinking they hanker to be USSR 2.0.


HiTechComms said:


> So a bunch of soldiers are acting like morons. You think that the western armies are free of doing stupid shit in the field? Not defending but soldiers do stupid shit..


OK, I'll buy your "humans do stupid shit" idea, as well as other people's argument that this may be like the Confederate stars & bars:  people showing their ache for a bygone age that was only good for some, but not everybody.  But as others have said, MOST armies _tend_ not to share the stupid shit via official channels as part of their brand, am I right?


----------



## Altair

Furniture said:


> Except when people in the CAF do stupid things, the CAF doesn't use it in official videos.


I agree with this post wholeheartedly. 

 I thank you for saying it.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

HiTechComms said:


> So a bunch of soldiers are acting like morons. You think that the western armies are free of doing stupid shit in the field? Not defending but soldiers do stupid shit.. Just go to TikTok.  I mean didn't BMQ just get cancelled cause some dipshits circulated inappropriate photos?
> 
> War is stupid, war is costly. Nothing I do right now makes a difference. The best we can hope for that WW3 will not start.



I think you might take a second to read the article...









						Video shows Russian troops brandishing Soviet flag in Ukraine
					

Heavily armed Russian troops have been filmed parading a Soviet Union flag as dozens of tanks and armored vehicles allegedly rolled through war-torn Ukraine.




					nypost.com
				




Heavily armed Russian troops have been filmed parading a Soviet Union flag as dozens of tanks and armored vehicles arolled through war-torn Ukraine.

The footage, which was posted online by Russia’s Ministry of Defense on Wednesday, showed the military vehicles slowly driving in single file along deserted roads.

“The Russian Armed Forces units continue to take control of the Ukrainian regions occupied by nationalists within special military operation,” the ministry said alongside the video.

Also...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502383491694186507

Sorry...doesn't sound to me like "_a bunch of soldiers acting like morons_".


----------



## suffolkowner

HiTechComms said:


> War is stupid, war is costly. The best we can hope for that WW3 will not start.


Again you should tell this to Putin


HiTechComms said:


> Nothing I do right now makes a difference.


Can you speak Ukrainian? They could use some help over there


----------



## Altair

Eye In The Sky said:


> I think you might take a second to read the article...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Video shows Russian troops brandishing Soviet flag in Ukraine
> 
> 
> Heavily armed Russian troops have been filmed parading a Soviet Union flag as dozens of tanks and armored vehicles allegedly rolled through war-torn Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nypost.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Heavily armed Russian troops have been filmed parading a Soviet Union flag as dozens of tanks and armored vehicles arolled through war-torn Ukraine.
> 
> The footage, which was posted online by Russia’s Ministry of Defense on Wednesday, showed the military vehicles slowly driving in single file along deserted roads.
> 
> “The Russian Armed Forces units continue to take control of the Ukrainian regions occupied by nationalists within special military operation,” the ministry said alongside the video.
> 
> 
> Sorry...doesn't sound to me like "_a bunch of soldiers acting like morons_".


I couldn't have said it better myself.


----------



## HiTechComms

suffolkowner said:


> easily solved just blow the pipelines


Do it and say good bye to the EU and say good bye to NATO.


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

HiTechComms said:


> Do it and say good bye to the EU and say good bye to NATO.


Or, since it seems to be ok in Russian thought process,  the EU just goes and takes what they want from Russia....


----------



## HiTechComms

Altair said:


> I couldn't have said it better myself.


You guys do realize that they see it as a point of pride ? The Russians think very highly of the 20 million WW2 casualties. I mean they have a yearly military parade.  Westerners having no scope or understanding of Russian motivation.


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

HiTechComms said:


> You guys do realize that they see it as a point of pride ? The Russians think very highly of the 20 million WW2 casualties. I mean they have a yearly military parade.  Westerners having no scope or understanding of Russian motivation.


We must be even more special....we have a "military parade" everytime a new unit CO comes in.


----------



## HiTechComms

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> Or, since it seems to be ok in Russian thought process,  the EU just goes and takes what they want from Russia....


Oh and they will give it back to us in a form  MERVS and Hydrogen Bombs? 

I mean everyone is outraged by Ukrainian war how many of you were outraged over Iraq, Syrian, Libya?


----------



## Eye In The Sky

HiTechComms said:


> You guys do realize that they see it as a point of pride ? The Russians think very highly of the 20 million WW2 casualties. I mean they have a yearly military parade.  Westerners having no scope or understanding of Russian  Soviet motivation.



Partially accurate, then?


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> You guys do realize that they see it as a point of pride ? The Russians think very highly of the 20 million WW2 casualties. I mean they have a yearly military parade.  Westerners having no scope or understanding of Russian motivation.


Pride is one of the deadly sins.  It’s getting them exactky what they deserve.


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> Oh and they will give it back to us in a form  MERVS and Hydrogen Bombs?
> 
> I mean everyone is outraged by Ukrainian war how many of you were outraged over Iraq, Syrian, Libya?


Ah yes, whataboutism.


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

HiTechComms said:


> Oh and they will give it back to us in a form  MERVS and Hydrogen Bombs?
> 
> I mean everyone is outraged by Ukrainian war how many of you were outraged over Iraq, Syrian, Libya?



The fact you equate those to this war is all the proof I need to see you have no argument whatsoever, just "oh yea's?"

Those same feelings that seem to be allowing the Ukraine people to repel the bully next door.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

HiTechComms said:


> Oh and they will give it back to us in a form  MERVS and Hydrogen Bombs?
> 
> I mean everyone is outraged by Ukrainian war how many of you were outraged over Iraq, Syrian, Libya?



It's MIRVs.  

The West has more.  I think of it like me threatening my neighbor with my over & under 12ga, while he points his .50 cal with 5 belts linked together back at me.  

Iraq kind of started with their invasion of Kuwait and then it all went sideways.   Syria didn't "invade itself".   Apples/oranges mostly?


----------



## Halifax Tar

Russian warship that attacked Snake Island has been destroyed


----------



## Furniture

HiTechComms said:


> Oh and they will give it back to us in a form  MERVS and Hydrogen Bombs?
> 
> I mean everyone is outraged by Ukrainian war how many of you were outraged over Iraq, Syrian, Libya?


Wow, straight out of the troll farm playbook...


HiTechComms said:


> You guys do realize that they see it as a point of pride ? The Russians think very highly of the 20 million WW2 casualties. I mean they have a yearly military parade.  Westerners having no scope or understanding of Russian motivation.


You may not be aware of this, but every year on the 11th of November we have a parade for our war dead too... 

Russia is thinking "I liked being important back in the USSR, I want that again", it isn't some grand cultural divide like you pretend. I mean, since you don't consider yourself a Westerner, how do you imagine you know our motivations?


----------



## Eye In The Sky

HiTechComms said:


> The Russians think very highly of the 20 million WW2 casualties. I mean they have a yearly military parade.



I wanted to add;  I don't think anyone here is disrespecting or  minimizing the horrific number of casualties the USSR suffered in WWII.  Canada also mourns her war dead for that same conflict.  

RIP to all the heroes that took the fight to the Nazis, regardless of what flag they fought under.


----------



## RaceAddict

Last week Putin turned on the Oligarchs, suggesting that western sanctions were set up to turn them into a 'fifth column'. "We will spit these traitors out like midges that flew into our mouths. They live with their villas and their yachts in Monaco and Miami and 'cannot get by without their caviar, oysters and gender freedoms but their hearts are there 'not here in Russia."

This week it is discovered that the 140-meter yacht _Scheherazade _(13th largest in the world) is very likely his. It's extensively crewed by FSO & FSB agents, many of which share the same registered address - Furmanova St., 10 in Sochi, which is where the Protection Service in the Caucasus of the Federal Protective Service of Russia (SOK FSO) is located.









						Putin 'is secret owner' of mega yacht in Italy which has escaped sanctions
					

Russian President Vladimir Putin is said to be the secret owner of multi-million-pound mega yacht Scheherazade, which is docked in Italy, according to rival Alexei Navalny's team




					www.mirror.co.uk


----------



## WLSC

HiTechComms said:


> You guys do realize that they see it as a point of pride ? The Russians think very highly of the 20 million WW2 casualties. I mean they have a yearly military parade.  Westerners having no scope or understanding of Russian motivation.


I would say that we understand the Russian psychic as well as they understand us than.  It’s a clash in waiting since 1945.


----------



## suffolkowner

HiTechComms said:


> Do it and say good bye to the EU and say good bye to NATO.


No it wouldn't be the end of the EU or NATO. 


HiTechComms said:


> You guys do realize that they see it as a point of pride ? The Russians think very highly of the 20 million WW2 casualties. I mean they have a yearly military parade.  Westerners having no scope or understanding of Russian motivation.


What do the Russians think of all the death and destruction and rape that they visited on Eastern Europe? What about all the Ukrainians that fought both the Russians and the Germans in WW2


----------



## OceanBonfire

Painting as a holy war:









						Russia’s Orthodox Church paints the conflict in Ukraine as a holy war
					

In an unholy alliance, it is helping Vladimir Putin to justify his war at home




					www.economist.com


----------



## Remius

suffolkowner said:


> What do the Russians think of all the death and destruction and rape that they visited on Eastern Europe?


I’m going to go with Pride.

You know who else will be proud?  Ukrainians for holding off the Russians.


----------



## The Bread Guy

suffolkowner said:


> ... What about *all the Ukrainians that fought both the Russians and the Germans in WW2*


The ones who fought the Russians would be the Banderists/Nazis we keep hearing about in Russia current narrative track on Ukraine - especially those who fought the Soviets AFTER WW2. 

That's why the Russians are OK with honouring those who fell defending Communism during WW2, but not so OK with anyone honouring those who fought Communism during & after WW2


----------



## dapaterson

Free military advice.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505966978644815883


----------



## JLB50

HiTechComms said:


> You guys do realize that they see it as a point of pride ? The Russians think very highly of the 20 million WW2 casualties. I mean they have a yearly military parade.  Westerners having no scope or understanding of Russian motivation.


But do the Russians have a yearly parade to mark the millions of people in the Soviet Union who died as a result of forced collectivization in what was a mostly intentional famine? What was it, something in the neighbourhood of 5 to 8 million? I am not trying to belittle the sacrifice made by those who gave their lives to protect their country and their loved ones.  The Russians have some serious soul searching to do, much like the U.S. and other countries (including Canada) have had to do to confront their history of racism and.or outright slavery.


----------



## Jarnhamar

HiTechComms said:


> I mean everyone is outraged by Ukrainian war how many of you were outraged over Iraq, Syrian, Libya?


Don't forget the Boer war and what they did to Native Americans.


----------



## daftandbarmy

C'mon everyone... sing along...


----------



## Furniture

daftandbarmy said:


> C'mon everyone... sing along...


It's actually kind of catchy... If the translation is accurate, it's hilarious as well.


----------



## Remius

Furniture said:


> It's actually kind of catchy... If the translation is accurate, it's hilarious as well.


It’s like an ear worm lol.

muttonheads from the east 😂


----------



## Blackadder1916

daftandbarmy said:


> C'mon everyone... sing along...



It's easier to sing along in English


----------



## Eye In The Sky

dapaterson said:


> Free military advice.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505966978644815883


----------



## Remius

Blackadder1916 said:


> It's easier to sing along in English


Gonna blast that from my car with the windows down.


----------



## Czech_pivo

suffolkowner said:


> Again you should tell this to Putin
> 
> Can you speak Ukrainian? They could use some help over there


I think his Russian is better.


----------



## McG

Skysix said:


> Yet the West is still paying millions a day for Russian oil and gas....despite the sanctions.





HiTechComms said:


> The biggest customers of Russian oil are going to be in Asia.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505948011788075008


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506085620430651397


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Anyone watching this conflict unfold live on Twitter/Internet get the itch to go back in time 25 years and think about how crazy this is?

If you did because of my post, here is a video for you:


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506110975711363074


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506110975711363074


More on the first article.









						Ukraine update: Ukraine is on the counter-offensive, attacking Russia's entire NW Kyiv front
					

First two weeks of the war, per posted videos, came from infantry ambushes of Russian troops columns. Third week of the war, Ukrainian artillery suddenly emerged, and drone footage of artillery damage now seems to dominate Twitter and Telegram (like...




					www.dailykos.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest tote board from UKR mil int ...

... and according to the UKR MoD info-machine this morning


> ... According to available information, the russian occupation forces operating in Ukraine have stockpiles of ammunition and food for no more than three days. The situation is similar with fuel, which is replenished by tank trucks. The occupiers were unable to organize a pipeline to meet the needs of the grouping of troops ...


----------



## Remius

Czech_pivo said:


> More on the first article.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine update: Ukraine is on the counter-offensive, attacking Russia's entire NW Kyiv front
> 
> 
> First two weeks of the war, per posted videos, came from infantry ambushes of Russian troops columns. Third week of the war, Ukrainian artillery suddenly emerged, and drone footage of artillery damage now seems to dominate Twitter and Telegram (like...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.dailykos.com


Seems to be some counter offensives coming from the west of Kyiv.  If true then Russian forces there are the ones getting encircled.  Day 27 of Russia’s 4 day special operation.


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505464082593292291
Interesting thread comments in this one.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506192500196839426


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506036452752334848


----------



## KevinB

Biden says Putin is weighing use of chemical weapons in Ukraine, without citing evidence
					

Russia's false accusations that Kyiv has biological and chemical weapons illustrate that Russian President Vladimir Putin is considering using them himself in his war against Ukraine, U.S. President Joe Biden said on Monday, without citing evidence.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

Alleged 'mutiny' occuring within the FSB as we speak.
Read on Twitter @igorsushko

Also, if you can find the time to read the 'letter' the Medvedev wrote about Poland, have a read, for it is telling and I feel foreshadowing of the next chapter in our current drama.









						Dmitri Medvedev attacks Poland
					

On 21 March, Dmitri Medvedev, former president (2008–12) and currently deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, published an aggressive and derisive commentary on his Telegram messenger account attacking the Polish government, the ruling Law and Justice party, Prime...




					www.osw.waw.pl
				




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505843869707116547


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506022066788741122


----------



## Remius

Czech_pivo said:


> Alleged 'mutiny' occuring within the FSB as we speak.
> Read on Twitter @igorsushko


I took a look.  It looks like FSB agents are trying to get the west to intervene as they think it will end this.  Not a coup per se but a mutiny within the Org to undermine Putin’s invasion.  

Interesting if true.  But grain of salt and all of that. 

Regardless, it seems that theirs is rampant discontent at all levels right now.  At least the signs are there at any rate.


----------



## Remius

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506022066788741122


These guys obviously didn’t understand the movie “Predator”. 

Hint: it wasn’t Arnie.


----------



## Portnord

Czech_pivo said:


> Alleged 'mutiny' occuring within the FSB as we speak.
> Read on Twitter @igorsushko
> 
> Also, if you can find the time to read the 'letter' the Medvedev wrote about Poland, have a read, for it is telling and I feel foreshadowing of the next chapter in our current drama.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Dmitri Medvedev attacks Poland
> 
> 
> On 21 March, Dmitri Medvedev, former president (2008–12) and currently deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, published an aggressive and derisive commentary on his Telegram messenger account attacking the Polish government, the ruling Law and Justice party, Prime...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.osw.waw.pl
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505843869707116547


I am trying to wrap my brain around a Russian suggesting Poles owe them something for WWII (from Medvedev's text). Is he trying to provoke them?

Edit: This bit that OSW paraphrased: "He charges the Polish elite with ingratitude towards Russia for liberating Poland from fascist occupation."


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506253634241183744


----------



## Czech_pivo

Portnord said:


> I am trying to wrap my brain around a Russian suggesting Poles owe them something for WWII (from Medvedev's text). Is he trying to provoke them?
> 
> Edit: This bit that OSW paraphrased: "He charges the Polish elite with ingratitude towards Russia for liberating Poland from fascist occupation."


Nope, living in a parallel universe where Russia does no wrong and all should acknowledge that they are beholden to them.


----------



## Remius

Czech_pivo said:


> Nope, living in a parallel universe where Russia does no wrong and all should acknowledge that they are beholden to them.


Pride.  Pride brought on by a false premise and propaganda.  It’s finally catching up to Russia.  The world no longer tolerates their BS.


----------



## KevinB

Remius said:


> Pride.  Pride brought on by a false premise and propaganda.  It’s finally catching up to Russia.  The world no longer tolerates their BS.


Well no NATO forces are racing into the Ukraine to call them on it yet…


----------



## lenaitch

Czech_pivo said:


> Alleged 'mutiny' occuring within the FSB as we speak.
> Read on Twitter @igorsushko
> 
> Also, if you can find the time to read the 'letter' the Medvedev wrote about Poland, have a read, for it is telling and I feel foreshadowing of the next chapter in our current drama.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Dmitri Medvedev attacks Poland
> 
> 
> On 21 March, Dmitri Medvedev, former president (2008–12) and currently deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, published an aggressive and derisive commentary on his Telegram messenger account attacking the Polish government, the ruling Law and Justice party, Prime...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.osw.waw.pl
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505843869707116547


I always find it interesting that totalitarian regimes historically cite mental illness or incapacity as a reason for those who oppose them or whom they oppose.  I suppose that way, they feel they can justify sending them away to be 'cured' if they ever get the opportunity.


----------



## Remius

KevinB said:


> Well no NATO forces are racing into the Ukraine to call them on it yet…


My point is that the world doesn’t believe or even pretends to believe anything that Russia says.   It’s always been a dishonest broker but a lot of nations and people just played along to keep them happy.  All diplomatic pretense is gone now and all they get now is “Eff off”.


----------



## Czech_pivo

lenaitch said:


> I always find it interesting that totalitarian regimes historically cite mental illness or incapacity as a reason for those who oppose them or whom they oppose.  I suppose that way, they feel they can justify sending them away to be 'cured' if they ever get the opportunity.


Like this poor bastard?  Who the Soviets/Russian tried to 'cure' for over 50yrs?

This is the last one that will found alive now due to age.  Ask yourself this question, how many others died before they could be found?









						PoW gets his life back after 55 years
					

The mystery of the identity of the second world war soldier who returned to his native Hungary five weeks ago after 55 years of captivity in Russia appears to have been solved.




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

lenaitch said:


> I always find it interesting that totalitarian regimes historically cite mental illness or incapacity as a reason for those who oppose them or whom they oppose.  I suppose that way, they feel they can justify sending them away to be 'cured' if they ever get the opportunity.


There's a reason the USSR used to have psychiatric prisons for political prisoners - "you don't like our system?  you MUST be crazy!"


Portnord said:


> ... "He charges the Polish elite with ingratitude towards Russia for liberating Poland from fascist occupation."


In this part of the world, which has been ... sternly run by more than one regime, current shitty management only tends to remind folks of the just-past shitty management, not its own


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR Pres to folks in Donetsk, Luhansk occupied zones (PDF of text also attached in case link doesn't work):  you're all still part of us ....


> ... We still consider you citizens of Ukraine, just as before. We consider you as one of us.
> 
> If you committed no crimes, you are safe. We will deal with any differences later. Our whole country consists of different Ukrainians. We can afford to be different because we are a free nation. But no matter what, we are united.
> 
> In any way possible, try to avoid forcible mobilization. It will save your life.
> 
> If nonetheless you were dragged into the russian army, try to side with the Ukrainian forces as soon as possible.
> 
> Everyone who laid down their arms will be safe. We will deal with all the formalities. The main thing is to avoid the irreversible and save lives.
> 
> If you are committing crimes but want to escape – run away. Or surrender. But very quickly.
> 
> Active remorse will be taken into account. If you surrender with military equipment or help capture a russian officer, you can count on the mitigation of your punishment ...


... this from UKR mil int (Google English translation from Ukrainian):   Looking for debt relief, Russian citizen?  Amnesty from a criminal record?  Have we got a deal for _you_!


> ... Given the total lack of replenishment of the combat army reserve, the occupiers resort to new forms of covert "mobilization". Due to the reluctance of reservists to return to the army and the mass refusal to sign contracts, the Russian prosecutor's office is purposefully looking for people who have problems with loans, alimony and other debts. At the same time, the number of such people is increasing in progression, given the consequences for the Russian economy from the imposed sanctions. Accordingly, debtors are offered exemption from all credit obligations in the case of signing a contract with the Russian army.
> 
> In particular, similar proposals began to spread in the Republic of Tatarstan, Pyatigorsk, Rostov-on-Don and the North Caucasus.
> 
> The recruitment of people who have problems with the law also continues. Criminals are offered a full amnesty in exchange for participation in hostilities in Ukraine.


... and this RUS HR & staffing update from the UKR MoD 


> ... The enemy is trying to form and move reserves to the borders of Ukraine. According to the available information, a joint unit of servicemen of several military units is being formed at the permanent deployment point of the 200th separate motorized infantry brigade of the Northern Fleet (Pechenga settlement).
> 
> Due to the unsatisfactory level of personnel of the 1st Army Corps in the temporarily occupied territory of Donetsk region, representatives of the russian federation continue active measures to forcibly mobilize the local population in the cities of Horlivka, Yenakiieve and nearby settlements. After undergoing a rapid training course, the occupiers plan to reinforce the units with heavy casualties near Avdiivka and Izyum ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

HiTechComms said:


> ... Russia is not going to have *concentration camps* like the Nazis ...


You're partly right, it seems.  According to Pravda (archived link), they appear to be calling them "strict regime colonies" these days.


----------



## Kirkhill

Remius said:


> My point is that the world doesn’t believe or even pretends to believe anything that Russia says.   It’s always been a dishonest broker but a lot of nations and people just played along to keep them happy.  All diplomatic pretense is gone now and all they get now is “Eff off”.



It doesn't really matter what we think.  For Vlad it matters what Russians think.  And the Russians know that everybody is against them but that they are fighting the good fight for The Third Rome and Universal Brotherhood.


----------



## MilEME09

So 2 days till they are done?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506283340722319376


----------



## rmc_wannabe

MilEME09 said:


> So 2 days till they are done?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506283340722319376


Bayraktar, UP!


----------



## MilEME09

Ukraine is tightening the noose 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506291217025441808


----------



## McG

Why's PravdaBot still here?


----------



## GK .Dundas

McG said:


> Why's PravdaBot still here?


 Comedic relief ?


----------



## Remius

McG said:


> Why's PravdaBot still here?


To keep some other people company?


----------



## GK .Dundas

Why do I have this urge to know where his IP address originates?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

GK .Dundas said:


> Why do I have this urge to know where his IP address originates?


Probably from a VPN site hosted in Toronto


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

It's coming from where you think it probably would......


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> It's coming from where you think it probably would......


Sad. I guess I gave them too much credit....


----------



## Remius

rmc_wannabe said:


> Sad. I guess I gave them too much credit....


Lot of that happened.


----------



## GK .Dundas

I'm beginng to suspect (Yeah, I'm slow) that eventually it traces back to a small industrial building in St.Petersburg.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506252669979136012


----------



## Weinie

Czech_pivo said:


> Alleged 'mutiny' occuring within the FSB as we speak.
> *Read on Twitter @igorsushko*
> 
> Also, if you can find the time to read the 'letter' the Medvedev wrote about Poland, have a read, for it is telling and I feel foreshadowing of the next chapter in our current drama.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Dmitri Medvedev attacks Poland
> 
> 
> On 21 March, Dmitri Medvedev, former president (2008–12) and currently deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, published an aggressive and derisive commentary on his Telegram messenger account attacking the Polish government, the ruling Law and Justice party, Prime...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.osw.waw.pl
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505843869707116547


I am taking these assertions on Twitter with a grain of salt bushel of skepticism. 

First of all, why would any dissenting voices within the FSB publicize/communicate any real discontent/future overthrow?
Why would Sushko tease, "I can't reveal all sources/info, but stay tuned."

I think this is a) utter bullshit and Sushko is trying to increase his Twitter audience for economic, egotistic, or self-gratification gains( pick one or more); or 
b) a Russian strategic maskirovka campaign (which Sushko has swallowed) to draw NATO into the war, and give Vlad even more justification for a campaign that is going badly, giving him a perceived enemy.


----------



## KevinB

and in the spiraling out of control theme

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506315902169534464


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506306740421341193


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506322054039101441


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506306740421341193


That is a nice find. I'm sure the boys in Leitrim would love to have a poke around in there.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506300825869684736


----------



## Good2Golf

rmc_wannabe said:


> That is a nice find. I'm sure the boys in Leitrim would love to have a poke around in there.


After Fort Meade gets done with it…


----------



## Weinie

Good2Golf said:


> After Fort Meade gets done with it…


Reasonably sure that the Meade guys already have a pretty good idea.


----------



## KevinB

Weinie said:


> Reasonably sure that the Meade guys already have a pretty good idea.


Pretty sure I saw a few outback in the scrap yard last time I was up there.  But we still might not give it to the Canadians to look at, it's hard to tell sometimes who's side your glorious leader is on...


----------



## Czech_pivo

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> It's coming from where you think it probably would......


Scarberia, lol?






						Urban Dictionary: scarberia
					

Found in the east end of Toronto. An entire city (600 000+) of hoodlums, scumbags, druggies, gangsters etc. Also known as Scarborough, Scar-town, Scarlem. Was notorious in the early 90's as the crime capital of Canada. The population is generally low-brow.




					www.urbandictionary.com
				



_"Found in the east end of Toronto. An entire city (600 000+) of hoodlums, scumbags, druggies, gangsters etc. Also known as Scarborough, Scar-town, Scarlem."_


----------



## Weinie

Czech_pivo said:


> Scarberia, lol?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Urban Dictionary: scarberia
> 
> 
> Found in the east end of Toronto. An entire city (600 000+) of hoodlums, scumbags, druggies, gangsters etc. Also known as Scarborough, Scar-town, Scarlem. Was notorious in the early 90's as the crime capital of Canada. The population is generally low-brow.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.urbandictionary.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _"Found in the east end of Toronto. An entire city (600 000+) of hoodlums, scumbags, druggies, gangsters etc. Also known as Scarborough, Scar-town, Scarlem."_


And my sister in law. God rest her soul.


----------



## OldSolduer

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506252669979136012


Comrade General it is time you take little....vacation....yes a vacation......


----------



## Altair

OldSolduer said:


> Comrade General it is time you take little....vacation....yes a vacation......


Ironic as a lot of the money allocated to go Russian Military Modernization likely went to vacation dachas and vacation yachts.


----------



## MilEME09

Unconfirmed but Russian forces may ne completely surround and cut off NW of Kyiv, this area has approximately 5-7 BTGs there. If they run out of ammo, they may be forced to surrender which would be the most humiliating defeat for the Russian army in modern times.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506360331899228163


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> Unconfirmed but Russian forces may ne completely surround and cut off NW of Kyiv, this area has approximately 5-7 BTGs there. If they run out of ammo, they may be forced to surrender which would be the most humiliating defeat for the Russian army in modern times.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506360331899228163



Because Afghanistan wasn't much a defeat for them, I guess


----------



## MilEME09

daftandbarmy said:


> Because Afghanistan wasn't much a defeat for them, I guess


I meant more tactically speaking


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> I meant more tactically speaking



I know... just revelling in Russian failures 

Tangetially back in 1980, when they invaded Afghanistan, I was my unit's Recruiting Officer. We had 100 people walk in off the street in one week to join up as they thought they were going off to fight the Russians.

We recruited them anyway


----------



## Spencer100

OldSolduer said:


> Comrade General it is time you take little....vacation....yes a vacation......


As an aside....Russian uniforms do have a style.  I have always disliked the medal mounting too much ribbon.  One day I should look up the different colours and uniforms.


----------



## Weinie

And on a otherwise relatively slow news day..................

UK slams Russia after officials duped by hoax video calls


----------



## Brad Sallows

>UK slams Russia after officials duped by hoax video calls

Winners up their game.  Losers whine about it.


----------



## Altair

daftandbarmy said:


> I know... just revelling in Russian failures
> 
> Tangetially back in 1980, when they invaded Afghanistan, I was my unit's Recruiting Officer. We had 100 people walk in off the street in one week to join up as they thought they were going off to fight the Russians.
> 
> We recruited them anyway


you have no soul.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Altair said:


> you have no soul.



I think that was one of the pre-requisites for the Recruiting job


----------



## Kilted

daftandbarmy said:


> I think that was one of the pre-requisites for the Recruiting job


Mine lied to me and told me that the reserves were a part-time job.


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> Unconfirmed but Russian forces may ne completely surround and cut off NW of Kyiv, this area has approximately 5-7 BTGs there. If they run out of ammo, they may be forced to surrender which would be the most humiliating defeat for the Russian army in modern times.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506360331899228163


This would be a great development. Would have to make Belarus think about entering the fight. Its a huge loss that I think Russia would be hard pressed to recover from


----------



## Altair

daftandbarmy said:


> I think that was one of the pre-requisites for the Recruiting job


That's fair.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

suffolkowner said:


> This would be a great development. Would have to make Belarus think about entering the fight. Its a huge loss that I think Russia would be hard pressed to recover from


Offer them 24 hrs to surrender, lest they use the same Mariupol diplomacy on the grid squares holding Russian forces.


----------



## Weinie

suffolkowner said:


> This would be a great development. Would have to make Belarus think about entering the fight. *Its a huge loss that I think Russia would be hard pressed to recover from*


Or escalate...............


----------



## Czech_pivo

I don’t want to be a pessimist or an alarmist but…


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506346494407938053


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> I don’t want to be a pessimist or an alarmist but…
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506346494407938053


The Polish are coming, the Polish are coming...


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> The Polish are coming, the Polish are coming...


The Russians are leaving.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> The Russians are leaving the planet


FIFY


----------



## Weinie

KevinB said:


> The Polish are coming, the Polish are coming...


Be careful what you wish for. Based on some conversations I have had with Polish senior officers in the last few years, they would relish/embrace an opportunity to engage Russian forces, and given the current sit, would likely very quickly turn the tide in Ukraine, and then turn eastward. They would love to be let off the US/NATO leash and loose the dogs of war. At that point, Vlad would obliterate Kiev/Warsaw. and then........


----------



## KevinB

Weinie said:


> Be careful what you wish for. Based on some conversations I have had with Polish senior officers in the last few years, they would relish/embrace an opportunity to engage Russian forces, and given the current sit, would likely very quickly turn the tide in Ukraine, and then turn eastward. They would love to be let off the US/NATO leash and loose the dogs of war. At that point, Vlad would obliterate Kiev/Warsaw. and then........


At some point in time you have to stop living in the fear of Nuclear Armageddon - and just say F it, Vlad, you're done.

Better a noble end to mankind than hiding and allowing atrocities to continue.


----------



## Kirkhill

Column of invaders destroyed in Chernihiv region
					

The territorial defense units destroyed a column of Russian invaders’ equipment in Chernihiv region. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				




Interesting sense of the terrain and the engagement distances being used for the dismounted engagements.






						Discover Popular Videos | Facebook
					

Facebook Watch is the place to enjoy videos and shows together. Find the latest trending videos, discover original shows and checkout what's going on with your favorite creators.




					www.facebook.com


----------



## suffolkowner

KevinB said:


> At some point in time you have to stop living in the fear of Nuclear Armageddon - and just say F it, Vlad, you're done.
> 
> Better a noble end to mankind than hiding and allowing atrocities to continue.


I wouldn't go that far but maybe Bad Vlad needs to be reminded that hes not the only one with nukes.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Weinie said:


> Be careful what you wish for. Based on some conversations I have had with Polish senior officers in the last few years, they would relish/embrace an opportunity to engage Russian forces, and given the current sit, would likely very quickly turn the tide in Ukraine, and then turn eastward. They would love to be let off the US/NATO leash and loose the dogs of war. At that point, Vlad would obliterate Kiev/Warsaw. and then........


They want to avenge Katyn.
And your right, Warsaw and/or Kyiv would be toast.


----------



## GK .Dundas

Weinie said:


> Be careful what you wish for. Based on some conversations I have had with Polish senior officers in the last few years, they would relish/embrace an opportunity to engage Russian forces, and given the current sit, would likely very quickly turn the tide in Ukraine, and then turn eastward. They would love to be let off the US/NATO leash and loose the dogs of war. At that point, Vlad would obliterate Kiev/Warsaw. and then........


Sounds disturbingly similar to the worries the Americans had with some of the South Korean brass. Most of them were hellbent on invading China.
 Then Chinese invaded and more or.less solved the problem by driving the UN. Forces  back to below the DMZ.
The Korean war was (or should that be is? ) far more complex then most people realise.


----------



## Weinie

KevinB said:


> At some point in time you have to stop living in the fear of Nuclear Armageddon - and just say F it, Vlad, you're done.
> 
> *Better a noble end to mankind* than hiding and allowing atrocities to continue.


I disagree. It would not be a noble end, because there is no nobility inherent in a megalomaniacs thinking or paranoia/actions. It would be a horrible, calamitous, catastrophic end. I have cautioned strategic patience here before. I still espouse that.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

suffolkowner said:


> I wouldn't go that far but maybe Bad Vlad needs to be reminded that hes not the only one with nukes


I think Vlad could be reminded he has to put his pants on one leg at a time and wouldn't accept that as reality.

He may have once been a tactician playing 4D chess, however the past month has shown he is fabricating a version of the world that is simply false... at the cost of Russian and Ukrainian blood.

He may not be worried about a nuclear strike...but my God he best fear the hungry and tired among him that would solve this war with a 640 rouble bullet...


----------



## Skysix

Soldier35 said:


> A colossal explosion, a powerful rocket attack on the Retroville shopping center in Kiev. The missile strike was carried out after Russian intelligence received evidence that Ukraine was harboring Grad multiple launch rocket systems and other equipment at civilian facilities. In the video, a Ukrainian rocket launcher fires a salvo at Russian troops, after which it leaves for a shopping center


I'm not any kind of expert on SovBloc missile launchers, but there were visible military trucks in one prestrike pic.

That said,I call BS and opportunistic tweaking of intel to try to justify the terror strike they wanted to deliver.

I am surprised at some of the UKR decisions on where equipment and pers. are stored/quartered however. They must know the Russians have eyes in the sky and on the ground.


----------



## Skysix

Kilted said:


> Mine lied to me and told me that the reserves were a part-time job.


Part time at 33% not the 2days/2weeks popularised by the Guard in the US that's for sure.


----------



## Skysix

rmc_wannabe said:


> I think Vlad could be reminded he has to put his pants on one leg at a time and wouldn't accept that as reality.
> 
> He may have once been a tactician playing 4D chess, however the past month has shown he is fabricating a version of the world that is simply false... at the cost of Russian and Ukrainian blood.
> 
> He may not be worried about a nuclear strike...but my God he best fear the hungry and tired among him that would solve this war with a 640 rouble bullet...


Probably up to 1000 rubles these days


----------



## Eye In The Sky

suffolkowner said:


> I wouldn't go that far but maybe Bad Vlad needs to be reminded that hes not the only one with nukes.



I’m sure he knows.  I also believe  the whole “nuc” stuff is being said to promote fear in the voting public not national leaders.


----------



## Weinie

Eye In The Sky said:


> I’m sure he knows.  I also the whole “nuc” stuff is being said to promote fear in the voting public not national leaders.


It does invoke fear in the public, and rightly so. Concurrently, Vlad is down to less and less favorable options, and rightly fears a coup/overthrow. A NATO intervention would play in his favor.

The Russians are close to being spent. I would suggest there will likely be a tactical withdrawal of Russian forces from Kyiv and a concentration/consolidation of forces around Mariupol, that would force capitulation of that city, give Russia a strategic gain, and allow Russia to "engage" in ceasefire negotiations. There is no other way that Vlad survives this.


----------



## suffolkowner

Russia's Tanks Are Dying in Ukraine Thanks to Elon Musk
					

While Starlink is aiding Ukrainian efforts to target Russian tanks and to keep civilians connected to the world, Putin could strike back.




					www.19fortyfive.com
				




elon musk saviour of the western world


----------



## The Bread Guy

And what does Russia mean by "denazification"?  This from RUS state media (Google English from original Russian)


> Denazification in Ukraine implies the abolition of any laws that discriminate against the Russian-speaking population. This was stated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Friday in an interview with RT .
> 
> "Of course, also denazification, this is our absolute demand. This will not only require the abolition of laws that encourage Nazi ideology and practices, but it will also mean the abolition of any legislation that discriminates against the Russian-speaking population and all the rights of the Russian-speaking population ...


More positioning for "the talks" ....


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> FIFY


The russian people are fine, have a rich history, and culture.

Its just their political class.

They are words that will end up with me being banned again.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Weinie said:


> *I am taking these assertions on Twitter with a grain of salt bushel of skepticism.
> 
> First of all, why would any dissenting voices within the FSB publicize/communicate any real discontent/future overthrow?
> Why would Sushko tease, "I can't reveal all sources/info, but stay tuned."*
> 
> I think this is a) utter bullshit and Sushko is trying to increase his Twitter audience for economic, egotistic, or self-gratification gains( pick one or more); or
> b) a Russian strategic maskirovka campaign (which Sushko has swallowed) to draw NATO into the war, and give Vlad even more justification for a campaign that is going badly, giving him a perceived enemy.


Biggest bunch of nonsense I have read so far.  This guy is def not legit.


----------



## OldSolduer

Weinie said:


> It does invoke fear in the public, and rightly so. Concurrently, Vlad is down to less and less favorable options, and rightly fears a coup/overthrow. A NATO intervention would play in his favor.
> 
> The Russians are close to being spent. I would suggest there will likely be a tactical withdrawal of Russian forces from Kyiv and a concentration/consolidation of forces around Mariupol, that would force capitulation of that city, give Russia a strategic gain, and allow Russia to "engage" in ceasefire negotiations. There is no other way that Vlad survives this.


FWIW I think Vlad's bodyguards will do the deed. It wouldn't be the first time a despot or an elected official had been knocked off by those sworn to protect them.

ADDING: Millions of $ and the guarantee of transport to a safe haven might induce a few to think about it.


----------



## dapaterson

There have been a non-zero number of "revelations" about senior FSB officials on social media that seem intent on creating dissention and paranoia within Russia.

Frankly, if I were a senior FSB official and no one was making accusations about me I'd be offended that no one thought I was important enough to try to displace via misinformation.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Weinie said:


> It does invoke fear in the public, and rightly so. Concurrently, Vlad is down to less and less favorable options, and rightly fears a coup/overthrow. A NATO intervention would play in his favor.
> 
> The Russians are close to being spent. I would suggest there will likely be a tactical withdrawal of Russian forces from Kyiv and a concentration/consolidation of forces around Mariupol, that would force capitulation of that city, give Russia a strategic gain, and allow Russia to "engage" in ceasefire negotiations. There is no other way that Vlad survives this.


What you say makes a lot of sense but I just don’t see how Vlad can concentration forces around Mariupol. I question if they have that ability at this point.


----------



## Posthumane

A Polish "volunteer and documentary filmmaker" who appears to me to be embedded with Ukrainian forces near Kiyv is reporting from the Brovary area. He says he received confirmation from Ukranian army staff that Russian troops in the areas of Hostomel, Irpin, and Bucha have been cut off from the northern military grouping and are surrounded. If the situation does not change in the next few days, it will be one of the biggest victories for the Ukrainian military in the conflict so far. He reports that the forces to the east of Kiyv, which he's currently with, are happy about the information as it means that the main axis of advance will be from the east (Sumy axis) and they will finally get a chance to have a full engagement against them. Their morale is high and they are looking forward to fighting the Russians.

Source here:








						Sytuacja w Ukrainie. Mateusz Lachowski z "pierwszej pozycji wojsk ukraińskich": przywiozłem bardzo dobrą wiadomość
					

Sztab wojsk ukraińskich oficjalnie potwierdził informację, że na zachód od Kijowa, w okolicach miejscowości Bucza, Irpień i Hostomel, Rosjanie zostali odcięci od północnego zgrupowania wojsk i otoczeni - powiedział na antenie TVN24 wolontariusz i dokumentalista Mateusz Lachowski. Podkreślał, że...




					tvn24.pl
				




This is a mainstream Polish media outlet, though I don't know their specific bias, I expect they are pro-ukr and like everything else should be taken with a grain of salt.


----------



## MilEME09

Ummmm


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506442395633827840


----------



## Weinie

Czech_pivo said:


> What you say makes a lot of sense but I just don’t see how Vlad can concentration forces around Mariupol. I question if they have that ability at this point.


It would involve a full withdrawal of forces from Kiev, and moving them south-east. They could then focus on Mariupol, and wiping out the Azov Battalion, which would allow them to claim they had de-Nazified Ukraine, and allow them to consolidate the corridor from Crimea to Donetsk, both stated, and tacit (yet spurious) strategic aims.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Russia has invested so much in the Ukraine invasion to test NATO resolve prior to invading his real prize: the Baltic states...


On NATO’s vulnerable eastern edge, Baltic nations face high stakes in Ukraine crisis​

TALLINN, Estonia — Late last month, Estonia’s foreign minister, Eva-Maria Liimets, flew into Kyiv to join her counterparts from fellow Baltic nations in an expression of solidarity with Ukraine as tensions mounted with Russia.

Like Ukraine, the three Baltic states — Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia — were once part of the Soviet Union. Unlike Ukraine, they had joined NATO in the early 2000s, and now enjoy the protection the alliance’s mutual defense guarantee provides.

After she arrived, Liimets, a soft-spoken career diplomat, took a walk around central Kyiv’s cobblestone streets in the cold night air. A tense calm suffused the city.

Early the next morning, a little before 6 a.m. on Feb. 24, Estonia’s ambassador in Ukraine called her with an urgent message: President Vladimir Putin’s invasion had begun. Like it was for millions in Ukraine — where the airspace was now closed and roads were quickly jammed by people trying to flee — the high stakes of the slow-building showdown with Russia were starkly apparent.


As Russia presses its invasion deeper into Ukraine, Baltic leaders say the world has finally woken up to the admonitions they have been making for years: that Putin is prepared to use force, like he did in Georgia, Crimea and eastern Ukraine, to advance his political goals.

“Unfortunately, we were right,” Liimets said in an interview. Putin’s action in Ukraine, she said, “shows that Russia has not felt enough international pressure and they could continue with their … plan to invade one of their neighboring countries.”




			https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/20/ukraine-baltics-nato-russia/


----------



## Czech_pivo

Weinie said:


> It would involve a full withdrawal of forces from Kiev, and moving them south-east. They could then focus on Mariupol, and wiping out the Azov Battalion, which would allow them to claim they had de-Nazified Ukraine, and allow them to consolidate the corridor from Crimea to Donetsk, both stated, and tacit (yet spurious) strategic aims.


I understand but again I don’t think they will be able to shift these troops to Gomel, Kursk, Belgorod, Rostov on Don and then finally insert them into Mariupol. It will take them days and days to do so and then the  troops will need to be re-kitted out and in need to extensive RnR. The Ukrainians will have plenty of time to reinforce the area and be all prepped and ready for them.


----------



## OceanBonfire

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505850401765179394


----------



## Weinie

Czech_pivo said:


> I understand but again I don’t think they will be able to shift these troops to Gomel, Kursk, Belgorod, Rostov on Don and then finally insert them into Mariupol. It will take them days and days to do so and then the  troops will need to be re-kitted out and in need to extensive RnR. The Ukrainians will have plenty of time to reinforce the area and be all prepped and ready for them.


Perhaps you are right. I suspect that the Ukrainians would also welcome a pause in the myriad of fronts they are fighting in, and would also require days and days to reconstitute, move, and then reinforce and counter-attack. At that point, they may be more conducive to a cease-fire.

I am not a grand strategist. I have been watching closely what the Russians say, and what I now believe they are capable of attaining, if only from a saving face POV.

My prognostications could be so off the mark that I will be eternally humbled on this forum.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506306740421341193
Meanwhile a lucky....or very skilled pilot


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506317219000721412


----------



## Czech_pivo

Weinie said:


> Perhaps you are right. I suspect that the Ukrainians would also welcome a pause in the myriad of fronts they are fighting in, and would also require days and days to reconstitute, move, and then reinforce and counter-attack. At that point, they may be more conducive to a cease-fire.
> 
> I am not a grand strategist. I have been watching closely what the Russians say, and what I now believe they are capable of attaining, if only from a saving face POV.
> 
> My prognostications could be so off the mark that I will be eternally humbled on this forum.


The Ukkies would welcome a pause in ops around Kiev for certain. 
I don’t know what will be the catalyst that tips the scales in terms of Putin ending all if this but hopefully it’s found soon.


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> The Ukkies would welcome a pause in ops around Kiev for certain.
> I don’t know what will be the catalyst that tips the scales in terms of Putin ending all if this but hopefully it’s found soon.


If Kyiv is no longer under threat, Kherson liberated that may do it, big factor is Mariupol


----------



## MilEME09

Oh my


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506456300254863364

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506454606104125442


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> Oh my
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506456300254863364



10% down, 30% or so to go until combat ineffective:

Russia’s combat force has shrunk, a Pentagon official says, reflecting casualties and other struggles.​

The Pentagon has assessed that Russia’s “combat power” in Ukraine — comprising more than 150,000 troops massed in Belarus and western Russian prior to the invasion — has dipped below 90 percent of its original force for the first time, reflecting the losses Russian troops have suffered at the hands of Ukrainian soldiers.

A senior defense official, who was not authorized to discuss details of Russia’s actions in Ukraine publicly, said Tuesday morning that Russian forces were “struggling on many fronts,” including routine supply lines and logistics, and that the Pentagon had seen indications that some Russian troops had been evacuated because of frostbite.

The official declined to address estimates of Russian casualty numbers, saying, “Even our best estimates are exactly that.” But last week, American intelligence offered a conservative estimate that 7,000 Russian troops had been killed in the conflict.

Pentagon officials have said that losing 10 percent of a military force, including both those killed and injured, renders a single unit unable to carry out combat-related tasks. Such losses also affect the morale and cohesion of a military unit

The defense official also said that the Pentagon had seen no indication that Russian forces are moving toward the use of chemical or biological weapons.

On Monday, President Biden stressed the possibility that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia might turn to such weapons, which are banned by international treaty. “His back is against the wall,” Mr. Biden said at a meeting of U.S. business leaders.

The senior defense official said Russian forces continued to rely on long-range artillery and rockets attacks on cities because Russian soldiers had not been able to make progress on the ground in taking population centers like Kyiv.

In the past 24 hours, Russian warships in the Sea of Azov have been shelling Mariupol for the first time, the official said, noting that indiscriminate fire at civilian areas is a war crime.

“We have seen clear evidence that certainly over the last week or so the Russians have deliberately and intentionally targeted” civilian infrastructure, including hospitals and places of shelter, the official said in a briefing to reporters. “And we also have indications of behavior on the ground by Russian forces that would likewise constitute war crimes.”

“The administration is going to be helping provide evidence to the multiple investigations that are going on,” the official said, “but we see clear evidence that they’re committing war crimes through these indiscriminate and intentional attacks on civilian targets and the people of Ukraine.”










						Russia’s combat force has shrunk, a Pentagon official says, reflecting casualties and other struggles.
					

The official said that Russian forces were “struggling on many fronts,” and that there were indications that some troops had been evacuated with frostbite.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## YZT580

Weinie said:


> It does invoke fear in the public, and rightly so. Concurrently, Vlad is down to less and less favorable options, and rightly fears a coup/overthrow. A NATO intervention would play in his favor.
> 
> The Russians are close to being spent. I would suggest there will likely be a tactical withdrawal of Russian forces from Kyiv and a concentration/consolidation of forces around Mariupol, that would force capitulation of that city, give Russia a strategic gain, and allow Russia to "engage" in ceasefire negotiations. There is no other way that Vlad survives this.


there is no reason why Putin should get any gain whatsoever.  He started it, he should never profit from it.


----------



## MilEME09

For those that follow aircraft, combat sent has been flying a lot of sorties lately, USAF only has two of these to collect electronic data of various kinds.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506459606599573507


----------



## Weinie

YZT580 said:


> there is no reason why Putin should get any gain whatsoever.  He started it, he should never profit from it.


"Survives" is very different from "profits." And his survival, if it happens, will be tenuous.


----------



## YZT580

Altair said:


> The russian people are fine, have a rich history, and culture.
> 
> Its just their political class.
> 
> They are words that will end up with me being banned again.


no they don't they are sadly a group of shit upon peasants who went from one czar beating up on them to a dictator and back to a czar.  (Vlad).  Many have never known any kind of rich history or culture other than labour.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

MilEME09 said:


> For those that follow aircraft, combat sent has been flying a lot of sorties lately, USAF only has two of these to collect electronic data of various kinds.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506459606599573507



Amazing piece of kit.









						RC-135U Combat Sent
					

The RC-135U Combat Sent provides strategic electronic reconnaissance information to the president, secretary of defense, Department of Defense leaders, and theater commanders.



					www.af.mil


----------



## OldSolduer

dapaterson said:


> There have been a non-zero number of "revelations" about senior FSB officials on social media that seem intent on creating dissention and paranoia within Russia.
> 
> Frankly, if I were a senior FSB official and no one was making accusations about me I'd be offended that no one thought I was important enough to try to displace via misinformation.


Speaking of murderous assholes I discovered today Beria - Stalin’s NKVD head- was a rapist and was actually charged and went on trial.


----------



## Zipperhead99

Interesting, ISW assesses that the situation has evolved into a stalemate






						Institute for the Study of War
					

The initial Russian campaign to invade and conquer Ukraine is culminating without achieving its objectives—it is being defeated, in other words. The war is settling into a stalemate condition in much of the theater. But the war isn’t over and isn’t likel




					www.understandingwar.org


----------



## Blackadder1916

YZT580 said:


> no they don't they are sadly *a group of shit upon peasants* who went from one czar beating up on them to a dictator and back to a czar.  (Vlad).  Many have *never known any kind of rich history or culture other than labour.*



Okay, they have a shit political system and an economy that will rapidly go downhill (thanks to imposed sanctions), but to suggest that the average Russian is a "peasant" whose existence is nothing more than physical labour is disingenuous.  Even before the significant changes that have occurred in the thirty years since the collapse of the Soviet Union, to rely on a stereotype rooted in feudal Russia would be to underestimate them.  Just like the rest of the "developed" world (_and "developed" is a flexible descriptive even in North America_) Russia is heavily urbanized and industrialized, maybe not as much as Canada and the US in percentage, but they are closing the gap.  Education is also high on their accomplishment list, with a percentage of the population who attained tertiary level education that equals (or may slightly surpass) Canada's.  Just because you may not know or understand their history and culture doesn't mean that they don't know themselves nor does it mean that they don't take pride in being Russian.


----------



## Altair

YZT580 said:


> no they don't they are sadly a group of shit upon peasants who went from one czar beating up on them to a dictator and back to a czar.  (Vlad).  Many have never known any kind of rich history or culture other than labour.


We are talking about the country of 1812 overture, ballet, swan lake, war and peace, caviar, beef stroganoff, and hockey. 

Everything you listed has to do with the political class, and while Russians are to some extend responsible for those who run their country and represent them, and collectively deserve whatever comes their way, individually and culturally I would say that Russia is pretty rich, and has a rich history in that regard. 

Urban cosmopolitan Russia anyways. The rural poor are just that, but the same can be said of most countries.


----------



## daftandbarmy

We're going to need more tanks...


----------



## MilEME09

daftandbarmy said:


> We're going to need more tanks...
> 
> View attachment 69641


Judging by Russian maintenance plans, I think we are okay.


----------



## Blackadder1916

OldSolduer said:


> Speaking of murderous assholes I discovered today Beria - Stalin’s NKVD head- was a rapist and was actually *charged and went on trial*.



If only this was an accurate depiction, brief and quickly to the point.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> Judging by Russian maintenance plans, I think we are okay.


12420 tanks. 

3 working fuel trucks.


----------



## RangerRay

daftandbarmy said:


> We're going to need more tanks...
> 
> View attachment 69641


Who knew the Greeks had so many tanks?


----------



## Altair

RangerRay said:


> Who knew the Greeks had so many tanks?


Turkey.

And Greece spends 2.8 percent of GDP on their military. Which means they never get heat over meeting the 2 percent of GDP threshold, but they spend 70 percent of military budget on salary and benefits. A huge chunk of that being pensions.

A dysfunctional military to go along with their economy


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Altair said:


> Turkey.
> 
> And Greece spends 2.8 percent of GDP on their military. Which means they never get heat over meeting the 2 percent of GDP threshold, but they spend 70 percent of military budget on salary and benefits. A huge chunk of that being pensions.
> 
> A dysfunctional military to go along with their economy


Shhhh.... Glass houses and all that.


----------



## daftandbarmy

You go Girl...


----------



## Altair

rmc_wannabe said:


> Shhhh.... Glass houses and all that.


Canada is dysfunctional, but honestly so. I mean, we could dump billions into the RCMP and say we meet the 2 percent and not do a single thing to improve CAF and call it a day and have those too lazy to look at the numbers simply think we are doing a good job. 

Greece just dumps billions into salaries and pensions as a giant public welfare service and gets a pass.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Altair said:


> Canada is dysfunctional, but honestly so. I mean, we could dump billions into the RCMP or Veterans Affairs and say we meet the 2 percent and not do a single thing to improve CAF and call it a day and have those too lazy to look at the numbers simply think we are doing a good job ...


FTFY

Yeah, the UKR President is a former actor, and his Chief of Staff's a film producer, but their writers seem damned good.  Some excerpts from the Chief of Staff's speech to Chatham House yesterday .....


> Russia's encroachments go far beyond Ukraine. It claims to restore the Soviet sphere of influence in both Europe and Asia. It claims to break the entire system of international relations and discredit all security institutions.  Therefore, Kazakhstan, Poland, the Baltic States, Slovakia, Moldova, and Georgia may be next… Yes, Moldova and Georgia again. Georgia, which after Saakashvili is again afraid to say the wrong word to Moscow. Well, apparently, this is such a non-trivial course of Tbilisi's European integration.  On the Russian military equipment they write "To Berlin!" once again. Do you know what that means? We know. The Israelis know. Believe those who promise to kill you.





> ... we cannot win the war without offensive weapons, without medium-range missiles that can be a means of deterrence (I emphasize: in our case - deterrence, not aggression) threatening Russian territory with comparative destruction.  Without a full Lend-Lease, we can only defend ourselves. But it is impossible to defend effectively for a long time without a reliable echelon of air defense systems that shoot down enemy ballistic missiles at a long distance.  However, we are not given it. Just as we are not given fighter jets. Just as we are not welcome in NATO.  This fear of escalation is understandable. But this fear will not save you.  Winston Churchill explained everything: he who chooses shame between shame and war, gets both shame and war.


Also, today's UKR mil int tote board ....


----------



## KevinB

Soldier35 said:


> What nonsense, the Russian army surpasses the Ukrainian one many times, the Russians will not retreat and Putin will bring this operation to an end


Vlad is that you?


----------



## lenaitch

Kirkhill said:


> It doesn't really matter what we think.  For Vlad it matters what Russians think.  And the Russians know that everybody is against them but that they are fighting the good fight for The Third Rome and Universal Brotherhood.


Ya, we often make the mistake that much of what comes out from the Russian machine is for our consumption.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:


> It doesn't really matter what we think.  For Vlad it matters what Russians think.  And the Russians know that everybody is against them but that they are fighting the good fight for The Third Rome and Universal Brotherhood.


About that - this from RUS independent media (at least for now) from a Russian funeral for troops killed in the not-a-war ....








						At a Young Russian Soldier’s Funeral, Denunciations of ‘Ukrainian Nazis,’ Soviet Dissolution - The Moscow Times
					

VORONEZH — On a cold March morning in a southern Russian suburb, several dozen people gathered at a church to say goodbye to one of their own.




					www.themoscowtimes.com
				



Full text also attached & archived link here in case original link doesn't work.

OP edit to add some highlight quotes from various folks who spoke at the funeral


> ... "He remained faithful to his military duty to the end and died heroically not at war with Ukraine, not at war with the Ukrainian army, but in a battle of good against evil. He did everything to ensure that goodness won in this world. Bow low to his eternal memory; rest in peace, brother,” said Maslov, head of the Novousmansky district ...





> ... “We are seeing off a wonderful young man who died in a war that is being fought to defend our country from the evil that our grandfathers did not finish during the Great Patriotic War,” said the district military commissar ...





> ... “Kirill is here as a warrior of Christ,” the priest began. “He fought against evil, Satanic spirits. Ukrainian Nazis, created by American multinational corporations.” ... “The destruction of the U.S.S.R. was a great deceit visited upon the Russians,” the priest continued. “There was no law by which the republics were dissolved. Everything that was built after 1990 is a lie. All this will soon come to light, and you will know it.” ...





> ... An officer in his 30s from Ulyshev's airborne brigade showed up and re-told the circumstances of the young man's death to the gathered mourners.
> “Kirill died in the village of Bucha near Kyiv. Their group carried out a combat mission and encountered the Nazis. The soldiers completed their task in full ...


It's not the grand narratives that convince people, it's these exchanges & talks over the kitchen table ....


----------



## Scott

The Bread Guy said:


> Also, today's UKR mil int tote board ....
> View attachment 69642


Well blyat.


----------



## Spencer100

OldSolduer said:


> Speaking of murderous assholes I discovered today Beria - Stalin’s NKVD head- was a rapist and was actually charged and went on trial.


Watch the movie Death of Stalin.  It's funny and has a bit of history.


----------



## lenaitch

rmc_wannabe said:


> I think Vlad could be reminded he has to put his pants on one leg at a time and wouldn't accept that as reality.
> 
> He may have once been a tactician playing 4D chess, however the past month has shown he is fabricating a version of the world that is simply false... at the cost of Russian and Ukrainian blood.
> 
> He may not be worried about a nuclear strike...but my God he best fear the hungry and tired among him that would solve this war with a 640 rouble bullet...


When 146-odd million people only have filtered, one-sided information, an attack or invasion would evoke historic memories of the threat to Mother Russia and likely change public opinion.  We are seeing what 43 million can do when their home is invaded.

I fear that any internal 'magic bullet' to take out Putin would only be to shift power, not save the nation.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506601245573849095

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506428011826061320


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> The modernized Russian UAV Outpost-R struck the warehouses of Ukraine


VKS has UAF TB2 envy…look at the cute little Outpost-R hit a small warehouse of expired ammunition. 😂


----------



## ueo

Czech_pivo said:


> These guys are going to be become immensely poorer over the next 1-2 decades. I'll be telling my grandkids, "Eat all the food on your plate, there are hungry kids in Belarus and Russia that would kill for you food.'


Their response will be "Name one."


----------



## Good2Golf

The Bread Guy said:


> About that - this from RUS independent media (at least for now) from a Russian funeral for troops killed in the not-a-war ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> At a Young Russian Soldier’s Funeral, Denunciations of ‘Ukrainian Nazis,’ Soviet Dissolution - The Moscow Times
> 
> 
> VORONEZH — On a cold March morning in a southern Russian suburb, several dozen people gathered at a church to say goodbye to one of their own.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.themoscowtimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Full text also attached & archived link here in case original link doesn't work.


Russia will need a lot more ‘kutya’ for all the funerals for the soldier’s dying in Putin’s egotistical war of aggression.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> Russia will need a lot more ‘kutya’ for all the funerals for the soldier’s dying in Putin’s egotistical war of aggression.


And this is just ONE funeral ....


----------



## OldSolduer

Soldier35 said:


> What nonsense, the Russian army surpasses the Ukrainian one many times, the Russians will not retreat and Putin will bring this operation to an end


Who are you? Tell us a bit about yourself.


----------



## KevinB

OldSolduer said:


> Who are you? Tell us a bit about yourself.


He already did in a few posts 

Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin is a Russian thug/politician, war criminal, and former intelligence officer who is the president of Russia, a position he has filled since 2012, and previously from 2000 until 2008. He was also the prime minister from 1999 to 2000, and again from 2008 to 2012. Wikipedia
Children: Mariya Putina, Katerina Tikhonova Trending
Born: October 7, 1952 (age 69 years), Saint Petersburg, Russia
Spouse: Lyudmila Aleksandrovna Ocheretnaya (m. 1983–2014)
Previous offices: Prime Minister of Russia (2008–2012), President of Russia (2000–2008), More
Presidential terms: May 7, 2000 – May 7, 2008, December 31, 1999 – May 7, 2000, May 7, 2012 –
Parents: Vladimir Spiridonovich Putin, Maria Ivanovna Shelomova


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Soldier35 said:


> What nonsense, the Russian army surpasses the Ukrainian one many times, the Russians will not retreat and Putin will bring this operation to an end



In a video game?  Reality of the last month seems to suggest otherwise…

Don’t be too distraught;  we find it somewhat easy to find/track your, I mean RFN, sub-surface assets too.  I’ve got some cool patches and logbook entires!  

Consistency is a good thing?


----------



## Remius

Soldier35 said:


> What nonsense, the Russian army surpasses the Ukrainian one many times, the Russians will not retreat and Putin will bring this operation to an end


Technically correct.  It surpasses Ukraine’s army in deaths, POWs, lost equipment etc etc. 

The Russian Forces seem to just be getting eliminated so, I can see why they can’t retreat. 

You state that Putin will bring this to an end, I’m not as confident as you that Putin will surrender.  You really should just get your people to rise up against him.


----------



## ueo

Czech_pivo said:


> What you say makes a lot of sense but I just don’t see how Vlad can concentration forces around Mariupol. I question if they have that ability at this point.


What he does have is a S...T load of chem agents. Some new others old. A major strike and bypass maybe.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506622476729696257


----------



## KevinB

ueo said:


> What he does have is a S...T load of chem agents. Some new others old. A major strike and bypass maybe.


He also doesn’t want to think about what might happen to St Petersburg if he did that…

I mean Russia has a lot of stuff that might accidental get tipped over or go boom by accident totally deniable by others…

Given the state of Russia’s conventional forces, a sub blowing up while docked or a mobile ICBM launcher exploding wouldn’t be unreasonable right…


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> Given the state of Russia’s conventional forces, a sub blowing up while docked or a mobile ICBM launcher exploding wouldn’t be unreasonable right…


Wiring can be very finicky that way…corrosion, especially in a maritime environment, like in the Northeast Baltic region, can lead to shorting and arcing and you never know what that could lead to…but I’m sure local commanders didn’t redirect maintenance funds into their own personal accounts, so everything should be A.O.K…. 👍🏼


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Having now objectively looked at this conflict for almost a month now, here is how I see it playing out:

Pyrrhic "Victory" for Russia.

I do still believe that even with all their present difficulties, stalled offensives, etc.  Russia will muster enough juice to ultimately achieve some form of annexation of a portion of Ukrainian territory.  What that looks like is anyones guess.

I do not believe NATO will intervene Militarily in Ukraine due to the risk of nuclear escalation.  I do believe the way forward for NATO will be to continue to support Ukraine with weapons and resources and also begin building the structures of what will be a long term insurgency.

I do believe that this War will weaken Russian influence long term, eventually result in some form of political change in Russia and lead to long term economic decline that will take decades for Russia to recover.

Tough days ahead and an incredible amount of uncertainty.


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506622476729696257


"The first step is the deployment of four new NATO battle groups in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia"

I say France will take the leadership of 1 of these, in Romania if I had to guess.
I assume the US will take Slovakia as a way of getting them to give up their S-300 and have US Patriots stationed there.
So, who gets Bulgaria and Hungary?  Benelux, along with someone else takes takes one of these?  I'd be shocked if we had anything left in the cupboard to send along.  I'd rather see us up our numbers in Latvia and allow someone else to draw down their numbers there and shift somewhere else.

EDIT: 
Looks like the US will send a Stryker company towards the BG in Bulgaria, someone else will be the lead on it though.
Croats will send 70 troops to Hungary
Germans look to be leading the BG in Slovakia, not the US - 700 Germans, 600 Czechs, 400 US, 200 Dutch and 100 Poles and 100 Slovenes.


----------



## Good2Golf

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I do still believe that even with all their present difficulties, stalled offensives, etc. Russia will muster enough juice to ultimately achieve some form of annexation of a portion of Ukrainian territory. What that looks like is anyones guess.


Had Putin taken a pragmatic, well-analyzed approach and focused on a Donbas-Crimea-Odessa sweep (maybe the Odessa piece could have been “conditions-based” depending on how quickly the land-bridge to Crimea went), with some distractive but modest engagement to the North, he would have had his domestic legacy intact.  His huberis couldn’t keep him from going big and trying to take (crush) Kiev, though.  A four-front war really wasn’t very astute of him, but that’s what you get from a mid-grade KGB apparatchik with a pretend gunslinger saunter, I suppose.


----------



## Spencer100

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Having now objectively looked at this conflict for almost a month now, here is how I see it playing out:
> 
> Pyrrhic "Victory" for Russia.
> 
> I do still believe that even with all their present difficulties, stalled offensives, etc.  Russia will muster enough juice to ultimately achieve some form of annexation of a portion of Ukrainian territory.  What that looks like is anyones guess.
> 
> I do not believe NATO will intervene Militarily in Ukraine due to the risk of nuclear escalation.  I do believe the way forward for NATO will be to continue to support Ukraine with weapons and resources and also begin building the structures of what will be a long term insurgency.
> 
> I do believe that this War will weaken Russian influence long term, eventually result in some form of political change in Russia and lead to long term economic decline that will take decades for Russia to recover.
> 
> Tough days ahead and an incredible amount of uncertainty.


The winner will be China.


----------



## Remius

Spencer100 said:


> The winner will be China.


I think China might not be too happy that this whole thing seems to have strengthened NATO.


----------



## mariomike

Czech_pivo said:


> Scarberia, lol?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Urban Dictionary: scarberia
> 
> 
> Found in the east end of Toronto. An entire city (600 000+) of hoodlums, scumbags, druggies, gangsters etc. Also known as Scarborough, Scar-town, Scarlem. Was notorious in the early 90's as the crime capital of Canada. The population is generally low-brow.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.urbandictionary.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _"Found in the east end of Toronto. An entire city (600 000+) of hoodlums, scumbags, druggies, gangsters etc. Also known as Scarborough, Scar-town, Scarlem."_



Worst place they could threaten to transfer you to. No lol.



Blackadder1916 said:


> Okay, they have a shit political system and an economy that will rapidly go downhill (thanks to imposed sanctions), but to suggest that the average Russian is a "peasant" whose existence is nothing more than physical labour is disingenuous.



Wouldn't want to live there, but it was a nice place to visit.



> You don't think pilots should carry personal weapons when flying over hostile territory?



My uncle carried over Occupied France and Germany.

Included in "Survival Kit" over Russia. < satire.


----------



## Spencer100

Remius said:


> I think China might not be too happy that this whole thing seems to have strengthened NATO.


NATO is a non issue to China.  Over the long term Europe is weakening.  China gets resources from Russia on the cheap.  Chinese companies buy Russian assets cheap.  Look to see Chinese companies buying up assets and positions in Russia.  Plants and assets left by western companies will be looking for capital.  Watch to see them buy car plants, manufacturing facilities, mines, and wells.  Renault understands this and is keeping AvtoVAZ open.   Watch to see more Chinese expats move to Russia to run and manage many of these operations.  

The Chinese military also wins as they will be watching it see what works and what doesn't.  (As is everyone)  Much of the Chinese equipment is based on Russian designs.  I will bet you right now someone is running around bases in China checking truck tires. LOL


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> "The first step is the deployment of four new NATO battle groups in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia"
> 
> I say France will take the leadership of 1 of these, in Romania if I had to guess.
> I assume the US will take Slovakia as a way of getting them to give up their S-300 and have US Patriots stationed there.
> So, who gets Bulgaria and Hungary?  Benelux, along with someone else takes takes one of these?  I'd be shocked if we had anything left in the cupboard to send along.  I'd rather see us up our numbers in Latvia and allow someone else to draw down their numbers there and shift somewhere else.
> 
> EDIT:
> Looks like the US will send a Stryker company towards the BG in Bulgaria, someone else will be the lead on it though.
> Croats will send 70 troops to Hungary
> Germans look to be leading the BG in Slovakia, not the US - 700 Germans, 600 Czechs, 400 US, 200 Dutch and 100 Poles and 100 Slovenes.


Two US Styker Brigade Combat Teams to Belarus border. 
  Doesn’t look like they are part of XVIII Abn though, so both XVIII and V Corps seem to be untasked ATM… Just sitting by the UKR border in Poland.


----------



## Gunnar

Soldier35 said:


> What nonsense, the Russian army surpasses the Ukrainian one many times, the Russians will not retreat and Putin will bring this operation to an end


Quantity over quality is a mistake that impulsive people make, usually to their detriment.  And you’re right:  they won’t retreat.  They’d need gasoline and unfrozen toes for that.

Question I have is this:  after Vlad smashes the Russian army, the economy and kills whatever youth the aging Russian demographic has managed to generate since the fall of Communism, what will Russia be doing to perpetuate its language and culture?  I’m really kind of curious what’s lined up for plan B.


----------



## Spencer100

Gunnar said:


> Quantity over quality is a mistake that impulsive people make, usually to their detriment.  And you’re right:  they won’t retreat.  They’d need gasoline and unfrozen toes for that.
> 
> Question I have is this:  after Vlad smashes the Russian army, the economy and kills whatever youth the aging Russian demographic has managed to generate since the fall of Communism, what will Russia be doing to perpetuate its language and culture?  I’m really kind of curious what’s lined up for plan B.


China


----------



## KevinB

Spencer100 said:


> NATO is a non issue to China.  Over the long term Europe is weakening.  China gets resources from Russia on the cheap.  Chinese companies buy Russian assets cheap.  Look to see Chinese companies buying up assets and positions in Russia.  Plants and assets left by western companies will be looking for capital.  Watch to see them buy car plants, manufacturing facilities, mines, and wells.  Renault understands this and is keeping AvtoVAZ open.   Watch to see more Chinese expats move to Russia to run and manage many of these operations.
> 
> The Chinese military also wins as they will be watching it see what works and what doesn't.  (As is everyone)  Much of the Chinese equipment is based on Russian designs.  I will bet you right now someone is running around bases in China checking truck tires. LOL


Militarily it’s crushing for China.  They are seeing how good the NATO second string weapons are, and I think it’s scratched any ideas for Taiwan military wise.  
  Chinese tires on Russian wheeled vehicles too. 

Economical it’s likely major win as they will get lucrative deals, unless Russian repents and becomes a born again Western Democracy after the fall of Putin.  

That would be the Chinese nightmare, a United Democratic Northern Hemispheric Union


----------



## Blackadder1916

Soldier35 said:


> The modernized Russian UAV Outpost-R struck the warehouses of Ukraine



It's mildly irritating to be visited by a St. Petersburg мудак, however it is insulting that they assign one so stupid that he can't go five posts without reverting to a youtube video link that he already used.  While Dostoevsky's "The Idiot" is but one example of Russian literary heritage held dear, perhaps they shouldn't so closely identify with the title.


----------



## Brad Sallows

Well.  If a war escalates to include NATO, the Russian navy is on the table.  And while it won't be a pushover, I can guess that it'll be heavily written down, especially in the land-locked ponds known as the Baltic, Black, and Mediterranean Seas.  And that won't be replaceable in six months.  The pro-Russians suffering a case of puffy-chest should think their belligerent attitude through.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Russia:  It's not a war - stop calling it that!

Also Russia ...


Also, remember this guy?  This via RUS state media ...








						Family of Convicted Spy Paul Whelan Says Sanctions Will Impact His Ability to Call Home
					

WASHINGTON (Sputnik) - The family of US citizen Paul Whelan, who is serving a 16-year sentence in a Moscow prison after being convicted of espionage, expressed concern on Wednesday that cash flow problems caused by the Western sanctions...




					sputniknews.com


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506654967091941376


----------



## Portnord

An unexpectedly interesting video popped up in my youtube feed. It's long, the author went for a lot of nuance. It's a couple weeks old but seems to have dated well.


----------



## MilEME09

Russian casualties are about 2:3 killed to wounded ratio, this is higher then even the US casualty ratio in WW2 which was 1:3, they cannot sustain this much longer before conplete collapse 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506665106125512709


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506660525106778120


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Russian casualties are about 2:3 killed to wounded ratio



Being skeptical of all sources of information right now, I suppose that means at least one side of the ratio is being misreported before I suppose it reflects reality.


----------



## NavyShooter

I saw a comment about a week ago-ish, about factoring the casualties by Pi. 

The RU should be multiplied by a factor of 3.14

The UKR should be divided by a factor of 3.14

At the time, the numbers actually came out to about exactly the same when that was done.

What are the real casualties?  I suspect far higher than the RU was planning for, and far lower than they are willing to take to get this done.


----------



## Spencer100

Plus casualties from within.  Sounds like happy troops

Ran his commander over. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506645546571862017


----------



## Spencer100

Spencer100 said:


> Plus casualties from within.  Sounds like happy troops
> 
> Ran his commander over.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506645546571862017


Hmmm on second thought maybe broken legs is a better option.....go home and say see I fought.  I don't deserve that special vacation and visit by the NKVD...opps I mean FSB.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> I saw a comment about a week ago-ish, about factoring the casualties by Pi.



Might be easier to just use "rule of 3".  Works for all sorts of categories of claims.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Russian casualties are about 2:3 killed to wounded ratio, this is higher then even the US casualty ratio in WW2 which was 1:3, they cannot sustain this much longer before conplete collapse
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506665106125512709


Number is low….


----------



## Good2Golf

Gunnar said:


> Question I have is this: after Vlad smashes the Russian army, the economy and kills whatever youth the aging Russian demographic has managed to generate since the fall of Communism, what will Russia be doing to perpetuate its language and culture?


Invitational tour by Pussy Riot to help the novoruskies appreciate what a great place Russia still is to be, 20% inflation interest notwithstanding?


----------



## suffolkowner

not sure what the casualty ratios should be but a lot of heavy artillery engagements and antitank action. I doubt theres many survivors from a Javelin strike on a T72 and ammo cookoff


----------



## suffolkowner

Rob Lee (@RALee85)
					

Keep in mind that the 120 BTGs that were assembled for the invasion had approximately 85,000-95,000 troops + Rosgvardia/separatist forces. The rest of the figure comes from support units. The BTGs have sustained most of these casualties, possibly as much as 1/3rd of their troops.




					nitter.net
				




could be Russian troop sustainment is in bigger trouble than expected


----------



## Kilted

Soldier35 said:


> What nonsense, the Russian army surpasses the Ukrainian one many times, the Russians will not retreat and Putin will bring this operation to an end


Are we just leaving the Ivan-bot around for entertainment purposes?


----------



## Dana381

Kilted said:


> Are we just leaving the Ivan-bot around for entertainment purposes?



Free speech should be absolute, banning someone because they are annoying and you don't like what they are saying makes you just like Putin.

If it is a bot then a ban makes sense but how do you know for sure?


----------



## Dana381

Navy Veteran-run US Gunmaker, KelTec, Helps Ukraine War Effort by Sending 400 Rifles
					

Retired United States Navy Pilot Adrian Kellgren, the owner of KelTec, donated 400 semi-automatic rifles to Ukraine to help Ukrainians fight off the Russian onslaught.




					sofrep.com
				




Lots of companies helping out


----------



## Altair

Dana381 said:


> Free speech should be absolute, banning someone because they are annoying and you don't like what they are saying makes you just like Putin.
> 
> If it is a bot then a ban makes sense but how do you know for sure?


I agree, i dont think people should be banned for being annoying.


----------



## Dana381

Altair said:


> I agree, i dont think people should be banned for being annoying.



Unless they are just being annoying for the sake of being annoying, That gets old fast. As for your case I don't know details. Nor do I want to, it's not my business.


----------



## Skysix

Besides it is somewhat entertaining in a watch the Jackass/Fail Army/Tosh 2.0 kind of way


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Remius said:


> I think China might not be too happy that this whole thing seems to have strengthened NATO.


China will be happy at the forced garage sale of resources and resource infrastructure Russia is going to have to sell to keep things moving in the short term. I also would not surprised at China offering up a Peace Keeping force, further increasing it's Global stature and likley they would be the most acceptable choice to both sides.


----------



## OceanBonfire

> Konrad Muzyka, director of the Poland-based Rochan consultancy, said the Ukrainian estimates of Russian high-ranking casualties were plausible, but they were difficult to verify and the actual figure was probably smaller.
> 
> "Even if we are talking about two generals, that's a big deal," he said. "We're not only talking about generals, we're also talking about colonels who are of course also really high in the organisation."
> 
> He said such casualties suggested Russia didn't have a good understanding of Ukrainian artillery positions and Ukraine was having success in pinpointing the location of senior Russian officers, possibly via their mobile phone signals.
> 
> 'TOO MANY COLONELS, TOO FEW CORPORALS'
> 
> A senior foreign diplomat in Moscow told Reuters: "For me what is important is the reported heavy casualties at colonel and above, the backbone of the Russian army, not just generals,"
> 
> The diplomat said the Russian army was heavily centralised and hierarchical, and lacking in empowered Western-style junior officers. "There are too many colonels, too few corporals. So what happens is tasks requiring resolution, which in the West would be resolved at much lower levels, get passed up the chain for decision," the source said.
> 
> The diplomat said that the hierarchical structure drew senior officers to the front to sort out problems or revitalise the effort, leaving them vulnerable to attack.
> 
> "Centralisation of command and control, lack of dispersal, and paucity of secure communication also puts them in locations where they can be identified and picked off by Ukrainian UAVs," the diplomat said, referring to unmanned drones.











						Russia's military hit by high-ranking losses in Ukraine
					

Russia held a funeral service for the deputy commander of its Black Sea Fleet in annexed Crimea on Wednesday, the latest in what Ukraine says is a string of high-ranking Russian military casualties since Moscow invaded on Feb. 24.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

Dana381 said:


> Free speech should be absolute, banning someone because they are annoying and you don't like what they are saying makes you just like Putin.
> 
> If it is a bot then a ban makes sense but how do you know for sure?


Personally I'm happy to listen to what they have to say.


----------



## Kilted

Dana381 said:


> Free speech should be absolute, banning someone because they are annoying and you don't like what they are saying makes you just like Putin.
> 
> If it is a bot then a ban makes sense but how do you know for sure?


I think it is important to remember that this is a private site and the mods could ban anyone they want for any reason. Granted, that probably wouldn't lead to very productive conversation. I agree that everyone should be able to express their opinion (within reasonable limits), however, I don't think that it is productive to state facts that are completely wrong without adding any actual evidence to support their claims. Now as for this individual, I don't know if this individual is government sanctioned or just a fan boy. Either way, I don't find their contributions particularly truthful?


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Kilted said:


> I think it is important to remember that this is a private site and the mods could ban anyone they want for any reason. Granted, that probably wouldn't lead to very productive conversation. I agree that everyone should be able to express their opinion (within reasonable limits), however, I don't think that it is productive to state facts that are completely wrong without adding any actual evidence to support their claims. Now as for this individual, I don't know if this individual is government sanctioned or just a fan boy. Either way, I don't find their contributions particularly truthful?


We also have no way of knowing if the 'Ukraine' side is truthful either.   History will decide that for us.....

Just allowing one side of any part of history makes us no better then "those" news media outlets controlled by the State.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Are we just leaving the Ivan-bot around for entertainment purposes?



Yes; sometimes you just want to putt on the mini-golf course.


----------



## Kilted

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> We also have no way of knowing if the 'Ukraine' side is truthful either.   History will decide that for us.....
> 
> Just allowing one side of any part of history makes us no better then "those" news media outlets controlled by the State.


Well, we have the ability to check multiple sources.  We know that Ukraine will be withholding certain information (at least temporary) for OPSEC purposes, we would in their situation.   Now just because we don't know everything doesn't mean that we can't determine that some obvious things are completely false,


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Don't take your time when using towed artillery









						Colonelcassad
					

Беспилотник корректирует огонь артиллерии  Подразделения Вооружённых сил России в ходе выполнения специальной операции на территории Украины уничтожили батарею 152-мм гаубиц Д-20 противника на Черниговском направлении.  Огонь российской артиллерии корректировался с беспилотника.  @anna_news




					t.me


----------



## Kirkhill

OceanBonfire said:


> Russia's military hit by high-ranking losses in Ukraine
> 
> 
> Russia held a funeral service for the deputy commander of its Black Sea Fleet in annexed Crimea on Wednesday, the latest in what Ukraine says is a string of high-ranking Russian military casualties since Moscow invaded on Feb. 24.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com



And yet, in a centralized command structure



> The US has been unable to determine if Russia has designated a military commander responsible for leading the country's war in Ukraine,











						Who is Russia's top field commander in Ukraine? The US isn't sure.
					

The US has been unable to determine if Russia has designated a military commander responsible for leading the country's war in Ukraine, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter — something that current and former defense officials say is likely a key contributor to the apparent...




					www.cnn.com
				




176 Battalion Tactical Groups, or 9 Combined Arms Armies, all doing their own thing?


----------



## Kirkhill

Kilted said:


> I think it is important to remember that this is a private site and the mods could ban anyone they want for any reason. Granted, that probably wouldn't lead to very productive conversation. I agree that everyone should be able to express their opinion (within reasonable limits), however, I don't think that it is productive to state facts that are completely wrong without adding any actual evidence to support their claims. Now as for this individual, I don't know if this individual is government sanctioned or just a fan boy. Either way, I don't find their contributions particularly truthful?


And you are free to point that out and offer contrary opinion and evidence.


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> And yet, in a centralized command structure
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Who is Russia's top field commander in Ukraine? The US isn't sure.
> 
> 
> The US has been unable to determine if Russia has designated a military commander responsible for leading the country's war in Ukraine, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter — something that current and former defense officials say is likely a key contributor to the apparent...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 176 Battalion Tactical Groups, or 9 Combined Arms Armies, all doing their own thing?


What could go wrong


----------



## daftandbarmy

Colin Parkinson said:


> Don't take your time when using towed artillery
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Colonelcassad
> 
> 
> Беспилотник корректирует огонь артиллерии  Подразделения Вооружённых сил России в ходе выполнения специальной операции на территории Украины уничтожили батарею 152-мм гаубиц Д-20 противника на Черниговском направлении.  Огонь российской артиллерии корректировался с беспилотника.  @anna_news
> 
> 
> 
> 
> t.me



You mean 'obsolete' artillery, right?


----------



## Spencer100

KevinB said:


> What could go wrong


Also what is NATO and US doing behind the scenes to effect the Russian C&C?


----------



## Spencer100

daftandbarmy said:


> You mean 'obsolete' artillery, right?


Not knowing anything.  If you have one missile do you hit the gun or the truck?  The gun you take it out, the truck you take the reloads and the ability to move and maybe get a secondary explosion.


----------



## Brad Sallows

5 guns can fire 300 rounds, just not as quickly as 6 guns.  But not enough of a difference to matter to the receivers.


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506753922224074756


----------



## Jarnhamar

NATO head urges Canada, other allies to do more on defence commitments​<Trudeau passes hot potato>
Ukraine needs more humanitarian aid, military gear, Trudeau tells EU leaders​


> Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is making a plea to European leaders to come together as democracies in the face of Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and tackle rising uncertainties citizens have about the future.





I guess this is the convening the LPC was talking about. I'm sure EU leaders appreciate Trudeau's wise and helpful words.


----------



## Kirkhill

More staff rotations.









						Ukrainians 'push back Russian troops in many areas around Kyiv'
					

Ukrainian forces have pushed back Russian troops in several areas around Kyiv, the city’s mayor said, as he vowed to retain control of the capital.




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				




1:56 PM Greenwich - March 23



> Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu’s disappearance reported in Russia​Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu has not appeared in public since March 11, Russian media has reported.
> Until March 11, Mr Shoigu was described as being "very active" in the media.
> More on this story to follow.











						Putin adviser Anatoly Chubais quits and leaves Russia over invasion of Ukraine
					

The Kremlin’s climate envoy resigns from government in highest-ranking defection yet




					www.theguardian.com
				






> Putin adviser Anatoly Chubais quits and leaves Russia over invasion of Ukraine​The Kremlin’s climate envoy resigns from government in highest-ranking defection yet
> 
> Anatoly Chubais, the Kremlin’s special envoy for relations with international organisations for sustainable development, was confirmed on Wednesday to have left the government.
> 
> Chubais’ resignation was motivated by his “opposition to President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine”, two people familiar with the situation told Bloomberg News, which first reported the story.
> 
> Chubais is now reportedly in Turkey, where the newspaper Kommersant published a photograph of a man resembling the former Kremlin official at a cashpoint. Chubais was allegedly sighted in Istanbul as early as last week.
> 
> A former chief of staff under Boris Yeltsin, Chubais recommended Putin for his first Kremlin position as deputy chief of the presidential staff in 1997, several years before he emerged as Yeltsin’s successor.


----------



## Good2Golf

Jarnhamar said:


> NATO head urges Canada, other allies to do more on defence commitments​<Trudeau passes hot potato>
> Ukraine needs more humanitarian aid, military gear, Trudeau tells EU leaders​
> 
> 
> 
> I guess this is the convening the LPC was talking about. I'm sure EU leaders appreciate Trudeau's wise and helpful words.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506755236710563850


----------



## RaceAddict

Callsign is a little on the nose... but whatever...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Oh those gossips at the UKR mil int's info-machine (Google English from Ukrainian) - Canadian link (at least an alleged one) highlighted at bottom of piece  ...


> Russian oligarchs are suffering from sanctions and want to stop Putin​Russian oligarch Peter Aven and Kazakh billionaire Alexander Mashkevich met in Moscow. During the meeting, Aven noted that Russian oligarchs are extremely irritated by Putin's policies. Sanctions imposed on Russia and specific businessmen over the war in Ukraine have hit the fortunes of Russian billionaires hard.  It was also said that representatives of Russian big business are currently looking for ways to influence the dictator or his inner circle from the power bloc. But this is complicated by the fact that Putin is in strict isolation and does not allow anyone to himself. First of all, the oligarchs, whom he considers "unreliable." However, big Russian business is ready for the most radical steps. Some oligarchs are even discussing paying for Putin's physical removal.  Peter Aven: Russian politician and businessman. President of Alfa-Bank Joint-Stock Commercial Bank. According to Forbes, in 2021 he ranked 30th in the list of 200 richest businessmen in Russia, with a personal fortune of $ 5.3 billion.  *Alexander Mashkevich: Kazakh billionaire, a native of Kyrgyzstan, a Canadian citizen, lives in Tel Aviv. According to Forbes, in 2016 his fortune was $ 1.5 billion.*


----------



## Altair

Calling it now. 

Kiev is not going to get encircled. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506719977008734211


----------



## The Bread Guy

First foreign DefMin to visit Kyiv since 24 Feb:  Lithuania's - this from the UKR MoD info-machine (in Ukrainian - Google English below) ....


> The Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov announced this on his Facebook page.
> 
> "Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvidas Anushauskas is in Kyiv today.
> 
> This is the first foreign defense minister to arrive in the Ukrainian capital on February 24. I wonder who will be the next daredevil. The Lithuanian colleague saw Kyiv military with his own eyes. He has something to compare with, because in December 2021 Arvidas Anushauskas visited Kyiv peacefully, on Christmas Eve.
> 
> The visit of my Lithuanian colleague is not just a gesture of support. We have very specific help from Lithuania. Let me remind you: it was official Vilnius that was the first to hand over the Stinger MANPADS party to us. Even before the full-scale invasion. And this party is currently actively used for its intended purpose.
> 
> As the knight on the Lithuanian coat of arms "Pohonia" has been fighting for hundreds of years, so we will not tire of driving the Russian enemy from the Ukrainian land.
> 
> Thank you to our friends and partners for their courageous and brave stance!
> 
> Thank you, Lithuania! ”The head of the National Defense Ministry emphasized.


----------



## suffolkowner

Jarnhamar said:


> NATO head urges Canada, other allies to do more on defence commitments​<Trudeau passes hot potato>
> Ukraine needs more humanitarian aid, military gear, Trudeau tells EU leaders​
> 
> 
> 
> I guess this is the convening the LPC was talking about. I'm sure EU leaders appreciate Trudeau's wise and helpful words.


What a joke our PM is. Completely embarassing on the international scene especially and on this issue. Offer humanitarian aid then do something from a military standpoint like bump up our capability. I can't believe any of the other NATO leaders take him seriously


----------



## Spencer100

suffolkowner said:


> What a joke our PM is. Completely embarassing on the international scene especially and on this issue. Offer humanitarian aid then do something from a military standpoint like bump up our capability. I can't believe any of the other NATO leaders take him seriously


They don't.  But they know his program and would love to be on board but "Events my dear boy, events."


----------



## Altair

suffolkowner said:


> What a joke our PM is. Completely embarassing on the international scene especially and on this issue. Offer humanitarian aid then do something from a military standpoint like bump up our capability. I can't believe any of the other NATO leaders take him seriously


There are 4 types of NATO nations

1. Fully capable military powers who spend 2 percent+

USA, France, Turkey, UK, Poland types

2. Fully capable military powers who do not spend 2 percent

Italy, Spain, Canada, Netherlands, Germany

3. Useless militaries who spend 2 percent

The baltics, Greece, Croatia

4. The useless militaries who don't spend 2 percent

Luxemburg, Albania, Slovenia, Portugal.

Each one only listens to their own level and above.

Canada isn't listening to Greece. USA isn't listening to Canada. Nobody listens to Luxemburg.


----------



## suffolkowner

Altair said:


> There are 4 types of NATO nations
> 
> 1. Fully capable military powers who spend 2 percent+
> 
> USA, France, Turkey, UK, Poland types
> 
> 2. Fully capable military powers who do not spend 2 percent
> 
> Italy, Spain, Canada, Netherlands, Germany
> 
> 3. Useless militaries who spend 2 percent
> 
> The baltics, Greece, Croatia
> 
> 4. The useless militaries who don't spend 2 percent
> 
> Luxemburg, Albania, Slovenia, Portugal.
> 
> Each one only listens to their own level and above.
> 
> Canada isn't listening to Greece. USA isn't listening to Canada. Nobody listens to Luxemburg.


You think we could take Greece 1 on 1?
I dont think we belong in group 2


----------



## Altair

suffolkowner said:


> You think we could take Greece 1 on 1?
> I dont think we belong in group 2


What did Greece do in Afghanistan?

What did Greece contribute to the eastern European battlegroups?

They spend the 2 percent, sure, but they don't contribute worth a damn to NATO and NATO missions, they stay in group 3. That's not even mentioning that 70 percent of their spending is salaries and pensions.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Canada isn't a fully capable military power.


----------



## Altair

Jarnhamar said:


> Canada isn't a fully capable military power.


How many nations had the capabilities and willingness to do what we did in Afghanistan, either in Afghanistan or elsewhere?

Are we a first rate power like France or the UK? No. But we are capable enough to do some things, assist in coalition missions, training, tripwire forces.


----------



## Brad Sallows

"Fully capable" would mean pretty much having all capabilities.  Which Canada does not.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Altair said:


> How many nations had the capabilities and willingness to do what we did in Afghanistan, either in Afghanistan or elsewhere?


The Taliban didn't have aircraft or vehicles.


----------



## Brad Sallows

Russians digging in wherever they happen to be whenever they are not moving is about as remarkable as Brits brewing up tea wherever they happen to be whenever they are not moving.


----------



## Altair

Brad Sallows said:


> "Fully capable" would mean pretty much having all capabilities.  Which Canada does not.


Semantics. 

Fully capable, semi capable, whatever, we have a military, it doesn't spend 2 percent, but it can do some things, which far more valuable than spending 2 percent and not being able or willing to do anything with it. 

Canada is more on par with Spain, Italy, the Dutch, and I would never put the Greeks on par with Italy, Spain or the Dutch.


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Altair said:


> Semantics.
> 
> Fully capable, semi capable, whatever, we have a military, it doesn't spend 2 percent, but it can do some things, which far more valuable than spending 2 percent and not being able or willing to do anything with it.
> 
> Canada is more on par with Spain, Italy, the Dutch, and I would never put the Greeks on par with Italy, Spain or the Dutch.


Assumptions all,......did anyone even remotely think Ukraine would seemly be on par with Russia??


----------



## OldSolduer

Its not the size of the dog in the fight, its the size of the fight in the dog. That Ukranian dog has a lot of fight in it.

No disrespect intended.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Semantics.



Heh.  Yeah, if we don't fit the definition of what we want to be, we pretend the definition doesn't matter.


----------



## TacticalTea

NavyShooter said:


> I saw a comment about a week ago-ish, about factoring the casualties by Pi.
> 
> The RU should be multiplied by a factor of 3.14
> 
> The UKR should be divided by a factor of 3.14
> 
> At the time, the numbers actually came out to about exactly the same when that was done.
> 
> What are the real casualties?  I suspect far higher than the RU was planning for, and far lower than they are willing to take to get this done.



Cool numbers, but I'd rather rely on something a bit more tangible than some random kitchen table math.

As in almost every other context, I turn to the US IC for such information.


Jarnhamar said:


> NATO head urges Canada, other allies to do more on defence commitments​<Trudeau passes hot potato>
> Ukraine needs more humanitarian aid, military gear, Trudeau tells EU leaders​
> 
> 
> 
> I guess this is the convening the LPC was talking about. I'm sure EU leaders appreciate Trudeau's wise and helpful words.


Just who does he think he is, exactly? 

Such shameless arrogance.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

TacticalTea said:


> Just who does he think he is, exactly?
> 
> Such shameless arrogance.


Apples and trees, they say.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Altair said:


> Semantics.


It's not semantics, you were just wrong. 

You're right when you say we have a military that can do some things. 

Agreed it's better than an arbitrary 2% with no real capability. 

Canada should be cautious we don't waste money to meet 2% and just end up with some more HQs and dumb buys.


----------



## Altair

Brad Sallows said:


> Heh.  Yeah, if we don't fit the definition of what we want to be, we pretend the definition doesn't matter.


Whatever you want to call it, call it, I don't care about the label. Canada is on par with the don't spend 2 percenters who do utilize their militaries in a NATO context. Italy, Spain, Germany*, Netherlands

*For now.


----------



## Kilted

Brad Sallows said:


> Russians digging in wherever they happen to be whenever they are not moving is about as remarkable as Brits brewing up tea wherever they happen to be whenever they are not moving.


It was part of their consolidation phase during the Napoleonic Wars...at least according to Benard Cornwall.  I could complain about tea not being readily available in the Canadian Army as often as coffee, but I won't go into that rant here.


----------



## The Bread Guy

TacticalTea said:


> Just who does he think he is, exactly?
> 
> Such shameless arrogance.


Or just master of the blooming obvious ....


----------



## Altair

Jarnhamar said:


> It's not semantics, you were just wrong.
> 
> You're right when you say we have a military that can do some things.
> 
> Agreed it's better than an arbitrary 2% with no real capability.
> 
> Canada should be cautious we don't waste money to meet 2% and just end up with some more HQs and dumb buys.


Okay, well, if Canada isn't a fully capable military power, then neither is Italy, Spain, the Dutch, and I'm sorry for calling all of them such. 

But I do think NATO nations do stack into one of those 4 categories to varying degrees and I do think that Luxemburg probably listens to Canada and nobody listens to Luxemburg.


----------



## TacticalTea

Kilted said:


> It was part of their consolidation phase during the Napoleonic Wars...at least according to Benard Cornwall.  *I could complain about tea not being readily available* in the Canadian Army as often as coffee, but I won't go into that rant here.


You'll understand, naturally, that I am in complete agreement with you.


----------



## MilEME09

Line in the sand?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506790397841924099


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> Line in the sand?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506790397841924099


firm line or one blown away by the smallest breeze?


----------



## TacticalTea

Altair said:


> firm line or one blown away by the smallest breeze?


Neither. A line in the beachsand.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> Semantics.
> 
> Fully capable, semi capable, whatever, we have a military, it doesn't spend 2 percent, but it can do some things, which far more valuable than spending 2 percent and not being able or willing to do anything with it.
> 
> Canada is more on par with Spain, Italy, the Dutch, and I would never put the Greeks on par with Italy, Spain or the Dutch.


Spain and Italy have aircraft carriers, we don’t. They have replenish capacity, we rent ours. Italy has F-35’s and Spain will eventually, we don’t. Spain can produce submarines, we can’t. Both can build aircraft carriers, we can’t. 
We are not comparable to them. We might come to the party, begrudgingly, and bring a bag of chips but that’s it.


----------



## suffolkowner

Czech_pivo said:


> Spain and Italy have aircraft carriers, we don’t. They have replenish capacity, we rent ours. Italy has F-35’s and Spain will eventually, we don’t. Spain can produce submarines, we can’t. Both can build aircraft carriers, we can’t.
> We are not comparable to them. We might come to the party, begrudgingly, and bring a bag of chips but that’s it.


Yeah we should be comparable to Spain and Italy but were not even close IMO.
There's a difference between what a partner provides and what it could provide


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> Spain and Italy have aircraft carriers, we don’t. They have replenish capacity, we rent ours. Italy has F-35’s and Spain will eventually, we don’t. Spain can produce submarines, we can’t. Both can build aircraft carriers, we can’t.
> We are not comparable to them. We might come to the party, begrudgingly, and bring a bag of chips but that’s it.


Both are laggards in terms of defense spending, both have limited capacity to project their power elsewhere in the world, both have contributed less than Canada in the Latvia multinational battalion battle group, both did less than Canada in Afghanistan. So their fancy kit makes up a bit for them being laggards in other ways. 
​


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> Okay, well, if Canada isn't a fully capable military power, then neither is Italy, Spain, the Dutch, and I'm sorry for calling all of them such.
> 
> But I do think NATO nations do stack into one of those 4 categories to varying degrees and I do think that Luxemburg probably listens to Canada and nobody listens to Luxemburg.



Altair, 

Italy, Spain and the Dutch have a much broader spectrum of defence options available to their governments than we have.  And their paramilitaries are far more military than ours.

Spain and Italy have mini Carriers, and amphibs.
The Dutch have amphibs marines and a heliborne brigade
The Spanish and Italians have tanks, and assault guns, LAVs and IFVs, Arty and Air Defence.
They all have Air Forces
The Dutch and Italians are flying F35s.
The Dutch Air Defence includes Patriots.

As many have noted before.  It is not just the money.  It is the fact that we can't seem to figure out how to spend it.

It is almost as if there is segment of our government and bureaucracy that would prefer we not have a military at all.

But that would be silly if I believed that.


----------



## Czech_pivo

suffolkowner said:


> Yeah we should be comparable to Spain and Italy but were not even close IMO.
> There's a difference between what a partner provides and what it could provide


Considering how much wealthier we are then Spain and Italy, we definitely should be bringing a second bag of chips, some dip and a case of imported beer, not domestic to the party.


----------



## Altair

Kirkhill said:


> Altair,


Kirkhill


Kirkhill said:


> Italy, Spain and the Dutch have a much broader spectrum of defence options available to their governments than we have.  And their paramilitaries are far more military than ours.


The RCMP is rather lacking, yes. 


Kirkhill said:


> Spain and Italy have mini Carriers, and amphibs.


They sure do. Still not willing to dump Canada to Greece Croatia or Luxemburg level. 


Kirkhill said:


> The Dutch have amphibs marines and a heliborne brigade


See above


Kirkhill said:


> The Spanish and Italians have tanks, and assault guns, LAVs and IFVs, Arty and Air Defence.


We have 3/5?


Kirkhill said:


> They all have Air Forces


Yes, as does Canada. 


Kirkhill said:


> The Dutch and Italians are flying F35s.


And Canada will be buying a fighter at some point. 


Kirkhill said:


> The Dutch Air Defence includes Patriots.


We could use some air defense. 


Kirkhill said:


> As many have noted before.  It is not just the money.  It is the fact that we can't seem to figure out how to spend it.


It's not just about the money, you're right. But lets not pretend Italy, Spain and the Dutch are meeting the NATO standard either. 


Kirkhill said:


> It is almost as if there is segment of our government and bureaucracy that would prefer we not have a military at all.
> 
> But that would be silly if I believed that.


Until the CAF is suddenly needed.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> Considering how much wealthier we are then Spain and Italy, we definitely should be bringing a second bag of chips, some dip and a case of imported beer, not domestic to the party.


Say what now?


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> Say what now?


*Spain has a GDP per capita of $38,400 as of 2017, while in Canada, the GDP per capita is $48,400 as of 2017

Canada has a GDP per capita of $48,400 as of 2017, while in Italy, the GDP per capita is $38,200 as of 2017

Yes, substantially more wealthy. *


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> Altair,
> 
> Italy, Spain and the Dutch have a much broader spectrum of defence options available to their governments than we have.  And their paramilitaries are far more military than ours.
> 
> Spain and Italy have mini Carriers, and amphibs.
> The Dutch have amphibs marines and a heliborne brigade
> The Spanish and Italians have tanks, and assault guns, LAVs and IFVs, Arty and Air Defence.
> They all have Air Forces
> The Dutch and Italians are flying F35s.
> The Dutch Air Defence includes Patriots.
> 
> As many have noted before.  It is not just the money.  It is the fact that we can't seem to figure out how to spend it.
> 
> It is almost as if there is segment of our government and bureaucracy that would prefer we not have a military at all.
> 
> But that would be silly if I believed that.


Almost as if defense spending is about keeping bureaucrats employed instead of delivering capability...


----------



## suffolkowner

There is literally no comparison that favours Canada vs Italy and Spain


----------



## Good2Golf

Czech_pivo said:


> *Spain has a GDP per capita of $38,400 as of 2017, while in Canada, the GDP per capita is $48,400 as of 2017
> 
> Canada has a GDP per capita of $48,400 as of 2017, while in Italy, the GDP per capita is $38,200 as of 2017
> 
> Yes, substantially more wealthy. *


Woah woah woah…a lot of that GDP goes back into the Department of Convening, not DND, GAC, etc.


----------



## Kirkhill

Canada 38 Million​Italy 59.55 Million​
Canada 1643 BUSD GDP
Italy 1886 BUSD GDP

Canada 24.3 BUSD Defence
Italy 31.6 BUSD Defence


​​Italian Army​​Armoured vehicles[edit]​
Armoured vehicles[27]NameOriginTypeNumberPhotoNotesAriete ItalyMain battle tank200[28]

To be upgraded and remain in service until 2035
4th Tank Regiment
32nd Tank Regiment
132nd Tank RegimentCentauro
Centauro II ItalyTank destroyer300[28]

In service with the army's cavalry regiments, to be replaced by 150 Centauro II and 120 Freccia EVO ReconnaissanceDardo ItalyInfantry fighting vehicle198[28]

To be upgraded, 45 Peace Support Operations configuration, 105 WAR configuration
1st Regiment "Granatieri di Sardegna"
1st Bersaglieri Regiment
8th Bersaglieri Regiment
11th Bersaglieri RegimentFreccia ItalyInfantry fighting vehicle630


First batch of 249 ordered in 2007 and delivered by 2017
Second batch of 81 ordered in 2019
Third batch of 180 improved Freccia EVO to be ordered
3rd Bersaglieri Regiment
5th Infantry Regiment "Aosta"
6th Bersaglieri Regiment
7th Bersaglieri Regiment
9th Infantry Regiment "Bari"
62nd Infantry Regiment "Sicilia"
82nd Infantry Regiment "Torino"
M113/M113A1 United States  ItalyArmoured personnel carrier~650


licensed build by OTO Melara: 2,400 M-113, 270 M-113 TOW (M233), 6 M688 (Lance ramp), 6 M572 (Lance transport), 560 VCC-1 Camillino, 1,230 VCC-2 (update version for conversion originals M-113)
1994 status: 560 VCC-1 Camillino, 1,230 VCC-2, 200 M113TOW (M233), 140 M-113 ammo-carrier for SIDAM[29]
To 10 September 2013, in service: 553 VCC-1, 1,207 VCC-2 (381 M-113 in phase out)
700 VCC-1/VCC-2 in service in 2014, being phased out
M106 United States  ItalyMortar carrier200


420 licensed build by OTO Melara: M-125 version with Mod. 62 81 mm mortar; M-106 mortar weapon carrier with Mod. 63 120 mm mortar
1994 status: 200 M-106 mortar carrier[29]
being phased out
Bandvagn 206S SwedenArmoured personnel carrier300[30]


90 BV-206 in service since 1985/1986[31]
others 70 BV-206 in service since end of '80s
almost 60 BV-206 update to diesel variant between 1999 and 2000;[32] almost 40 BV-206 update to diesel variant with 2003 year Alvis contract[33]
112 BV-206S7 armoured version, acquired between 2002 and 2008
46 BV-206D special version acquired between 2002 and 2008 (command post, SAR, TOW, ambulance, fuel transport)[34]
Puma 6x6 ItalyArmoured personnel carrier250

Being phased outPuma 4x4 ItalyArmoured reconnaissance vehicle330


in 2013, 2 donated to Argentina
in 2013, 20 donated to Libya
in 2014, 3 donated to Djibouti
To 10 September 2013 there were 367 Puma (both versions, 4X4 & 6X6)[28]
being phased out
Orso 4X4[35] ItalyMine-Resistant Ambush Protected56


40 Iveco VTMM Orso 4X4 RCP (Route Clearance Package), with 25 options, ordered in 2011 for delivery since 2013 (120 million Euros)
16 Iveco VTMM Orso 4X4 Ambulance ordered in 2009, delivered in 2014
Total of 630 Orso to be acquired[36]
Cougar HE United StatesMine-Resistant Ambush Protected12[37]

Since 2008, in Afghanistan theater[38]VM90/Armored VM90 ItalyInfantry mobility vehicle2,000


84 VM90T3 delivered in 2006[39]
96 VM90T3 delivered in 2007
18 VM90T3 delivered in 2008
3 VM90 Ambulance delivered in 2008
113 VM90T3 delivered in 2009
30 VM90T3 delivered in 2010
30 VM90T3 delivered in 2011
12 VM90 Ambulance delivered in 2011
121 VM90T3 delivered in 2012
241 VM90T3 ordered in 2013
2 VM90T3 fire-fighting version, ordered in 2013
[40]

341 VM90T3 planned in 2014
VTLM Lince ItalyInfantry mobility vehicle1,900


30 VTLM + 30 VTLM not armoured, for 16.8 million Euros, ordered in 2003
1,153 VTLM, for 335 million Euros, ordered in 2004, for deliver in July 2011 (81 with Hitrole Light)
in 2007 ordered update of 32 VTLM, to transform in Spike missile launcher, for 3.9 million Euros
35 VTLM tactical ambulance, ordered in 2006/2007, for 19.9 million Euros[34]
5 VTLM delivered in 2009
103 VTLM delivered in 2010
10 VTLM tactical ambulance, delivered in 2010
1 VTLM-1A delivered in 2010
139 VTLM-1A delivered in 2011 (on 364 total planned for 2011/2012)
5 VTLM-1A delivered in 2012
25 VTLM-1A tactical ambulance, delivered in 2012
479 VTLM-1A planned between 2012 and 2014, for 202 million Euros (60 with Hitrole Light)[41]
Land Rover VAV90 / Defender 90 WMIK United KingdomOff-road vehicle50Weapons Mounted Installation Kit, version with 12.7mm machine gun or 40 mm grenade launcher, for special forcesVBR NBC France
 ItalyArmoured reconnaissance-patrol vehicle15Ex France Army VAB NBC, then 9 updated by Aris Spa with Centauro and Italian components[42]AAV7-A1 United StatesAmphibious assault vehicle1715 AAVP-7 + 1 AAVC-7 + 1 AAVR-7
To be replaced with 82 amphibious combat vehicles[43]
Lagunari Regiment "Serenissima"
Artillery[edit]​
Artillery[44]NameOriginTypeNumberPhotoNotesPanzerhaubitze 2000 Germany
 ItalySelf-propelled howitzer54

68 licensed build by OTO Melara
18 per regiment, rest with the artillery school:
8th Field Artillery Regiment "Pasubio"
52nd Artillery Regiment "Torino"
132nd Field Artillery Regiment "Ariete"FH70 United Kingdom
Italy
 GermanyTowed howitzer90[45]

164 in service since 1982
18 per regiment:
Field Artillery Regiment "a Cavallo"
1st Field Artillery Regiment (Mountain)
3rd Field Artillery Regiment (Mountain)
21st Field Artillery Regiment "Trieste"
24th Field Artillery Regiment "Peloritani"OTO Melara Mod 56 ItalyPack howitzer18

330 in service since 1960s; withdrawn in early 2000s and 18 taken back in service in 2013:
185th Paratroopers Artillery Regiment "Folgore"M270 MLRS United StatesMultiple rocket launcher21

Since 1988 22 units delivered; 21 units were updated to GMLRS in 2012
216 GMLRS rockets ordered in 2011, of which 66 in Lot 7 (delivery in 2012)
unknown GMLRS rockets ordered in 2013, Lot 9; Delivery will begin in April 2015
5th Field Artillery Regiment "Superga"
Mortars[edit]​
Mortars[46]NameOriginTypeNumberPhotoNotes120mm F1 FranceMortar823
only 139 Thomson MO-120-RT-F1 (delivered since 1998; 6 delivered in 2009)
others 684 Thomson-Brandt Mod. 63 (all on phase out)
Expal 81 mm SpainMortar271Planned in 2010 for 22.3 million Euros[47] to replace oldest 253 Mod. 62 81 mm mortar, be phased out[3]

28 delivered in 2011
98 ballistic computers delivery in 2012
Hirtenberger M6C-210 AustriaMortar320Delivered between 2002 and 2003, for 5.4 million Euros
Air-defence[edit]​
NameOriginTypeNumberPhotoNotesSAMP/T France
 ItalySurface-to-air missile24 systems

4 × operational batteries, 1 × training battery, 1 × in reserve
4th Anti-aircraft Artillery Regiment "Peschiera"Skyguard Aspide ItalySurface-to-air missile24 systems

Tn service since 1992. To be replaced with CAMM-ER systems
17th Anti-aircraft Artillery Regiment "Sforzesca"
121st Anti-aircraft Artillery Regiment "Ravenna"FIM-92 Stinger United StatesMan-portable air-defense system145

In service since 1987. Delivered 145 launchers and about 675 missiles.
17th Anti-aircraft Artillery Regiment "Sforzesca"
121st Anti-aircraft Artillery Regiment "Ravenna"
​


----------



## KevinB

Don’t forget Aircraft and Helicopters…


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> Don’t forget Aircraft and Helicopters…


They also have an assault ship


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> They also have an assault ship



An two brigades of mountain troops Alpini - Wikipedia


----------



## suffolkowner

CanadaSpainItalyfighter jets94153160AAR5410strategic airlift5120tactical airlift172823MPA1433EW0116AEW/AWACS002SSK428frigates121216patrol ships142123RAS124AAS023carrier012tanks82273200IFV0261198APC976648930towed artillery37840SPH09654MLRS0021Patriot030NASAAM080SAM01348MALE0412

very rough and very quick


----------



## daftandbarmy

suffolkowner said:


> CanadaSpainItalyfighter jets94153160AAR5410strategic airlift5120tactical airlift172823MPA1433EW0116AEW/AWACS002SSK428frigates121216patrol ships142123RAS124AAS023carrier012tanks82273200IFV0261198APC976648930towed artillery37840SPH09654MLRS0021Patriot030NASAAM080SAM01348MALE0412
> 
> very rough and very quick



A sad tale, told in numbers...


----------



## Altair

suffolkowner said:


> There is literally no comparison that favours Canada vs Italy and Spain


Compare troop numbers in Afghanistan.

Compare troop losses in Afghanistan

Compare troops committed to the Baltics.

If you are saying that Italy and Spain have all this fancy kit I'm going to change the rankings.

There are 5 types of NATO nations

1. Fully capable military powers who spend 2 percent+

USA, France, Turkey, UK, Poland types

2. Semi capable military powers who do not spend 2 percent

Canada, Netherlands, Germany

3. Semi capable military powers who do not spend 2 percent and don't commit their armies to NATO missions

Italy, Spain

4. Useless militaries who spend 2 percent

The baltics, Greece, Croatia

5. The useless militaries who don't spend 2 percent

Luxemburg, Albania, Slovenia, Portugal.

There, fixed.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Europe will have a tough time cutting their energy ties with Russia.

In the meantime, ironically, they will have to continue to help Russia pay for the war:




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506616139429855237


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> Compare troop numbers in Afghanistan.
> 
> Compare troop losses in Afghanistan
> 
> Compare troops committed to the Baltics.
> 
> If you are saying that Italy and Spain have all this fancy kit I'm going to change the rankings.
> 
> There are 5 types of NATO nations
> 
> 1. Fully capable military powers who spend 2 percent+
> 
> USA, France, Turkey, UK, Poland types
> 
> 2. Semi capable military powers who do not spend 2 percent
> 
> Canada, Netherlands, Germany
> 
> 3. Semi capable military powers who do not spend 2 percent and don't commit their armies to NATO missions
> 
> Italy, Spain
> 
> 4. Useless militaries who spend 2 percent
> 
> The baltics, Greece, Croatia
> 
> 5. The useless militaries who don't spend 2 percent
> 
> Luxemburg, Albania, Slovenia, Portugal.
> 
> There, fixed.











						[REPORT] The Italian Participation in Peacekeeping Operations - The New Global Order
					

On May 29, the world celebrates the International Day of United Nations Peacekeepers. Italy is one of the most committed nations in this field, starting from the 1990s, when its engagement in peacekeeping operations sharply increased.Guest Contributor Maicol Cocco has authored a thorough report...




					thenewglobalorder.com


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Compare troop numbers in Afghanistan.



What is that supposed to mean?  That if our entire force was musketeers and we sent them all, we'd still be "better"?


----------



## Altair

Kirkhill said:


> [REPORT] The Italian Participation in Peacekeeping Operations - The New Global Order
> 
> 
> On May 29, the world celebrates the International Day of United Nations Peacekeepers. Italy is one of the most committed nations in this field, starting from the 1990s, when its engagement in peacekeeping operations sharply increased.Guest Contributor Maicol Cocco has authored a thorough report...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> thenewglobalorder.com


Italian Armed forces, 165k 

1000 in peacekeeping, 300ish in Latvia?

Yay? 

Group 3.


----------



## Altair

Brad Sallows said:


> What is that supposed to mean?  That if our entire force was musketeers and we sent them all, we'd still be "better"?


It means, if you have a 300k strong army, 3000 tanks, and don't lift a finger to help, what good are ya?

10 soldiers present for work is more helpful than 100 at home. 

Canada did more heavy lifting in Afghanistan than either Spain or Italy, and is doing more heavy lifting in Latvia than either Spain or Italy, despite all the fancy kit they have, so they are closer to Greece in my mind. Big well kitted military that doesn't lift a finger to help, group 3 in my mind.


----------



## Eaglelord17

Afghanistan almost broke our military in terms of burn out, and capabilities. If it wasn’t for our allies going to kit us, we would have lost more troops than we did. 

Canada isn’t that capable, we have a few things we do really well and a lot we cannot do.


----------



## Fabius

Or better selection and maintenance of their national aim.

Canada fits better with Denmark, Norway etc than Italy, Spain. 
Due to our geo position we have better expeditionary capacity in some areas than Norway, Denmark but overall similarish.


----------



## Altair

Eaglelord17 said:


> Afghanistan almost broke our military in terms of burn out, and capabilities. If it wasn’t for our allies going to kit us, we would have lost more troops than we did.
> 
> Canada isn’t that capable, we have a few things we do really well and a lot we cannot do.


That's why I had them in the second group. We have a few things we do really well and a lot we cannot do, but at least we are willing to do them. 

That's more impressive to me than having all the fancy kit in the world and not lifting a finger to help.


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

So what's going on in Ukraine??


----------



## Altair

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> So what's going on in Ukraine??


WW1 redux. 

Or Iran Iraq war redux. 

Rather boring really.


----------



## Kirkhill

Fabius said:


> Or better selection and maintenance of their national aim.
> 
> Canada fits better with Denmark, Norway etc than Italy, Spain.
> Due to our geo position we have better expeditionary capacity in some areas than Norway, Denmark but overall similarish.



BC fits with Norway and Denmark

Quebec with Sweden

Ontario with the Netherlands

Canadians are 38% richer than the  Italians and 60% richer than the Spanish.


PopulationGDPGDP/Cap#BUSDUS$Canada​38,010,0001643$ 43,225.47Italy​59,550,0001886$ 31,697.48Spain​47,350,0001281$ 27,053.85Netherlands​17,440,000912$ 52,293.58Ontario​14,570,000714$ 49,004.80Sweden​10,350,000538$ 51,980.68Quebec​8,485,000368$ 43,345.11Norway​5,379,000362$ 67,286.25Denmark​5,831,000325$ 55,746.14BC​5,071,000247$ 48,717.95


----------



## Kirkhill

The ask is that Canada raise its per capita contribution from 1.39% of US$43,225.47 to 2% 

From US$600 to US$864

From  $750 to $1,080 in Canadian 

Or $330 per person per year.


----------



## Good2Golf

Kirkhill said:


> The ask is that Canada raise its per capita contribution from 1.39% of US$43,225.47 to 2%
> 
> From US$600 to US$864
> 
> From  $750 to $1,080 in Canadian
> 
> Or $330 per person per year.


That’s asking more than Canadians are willing to give…


----------



## Altair

Good2Golf said:


> That’s asking more than Canadians are willing to give…


But how are we going to pay for it...


----------



## daftandbarmy

Altair said:


> But how are we going to pay for it...



How we've always paid for things... mainly through revenue generated from natural resources, like energy products.


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> How we've always paid for things... mainly through revenue generated from natural resources, like energy products.


Yep.

The Euros need energy.  We have energy.  We sell energy. We make money.

We spend money on German tanks and housing Canadian troops in Latvia. 

Everybody happy.


----------



## TacticalTea

Kirkhill said:


> Yep.
> 
> The Euros need energy.  We have energy.  We sell energy. We make money.
> 
> We spend money on German tanks and housing Canadian troops in Latvia.
> 
> Everybody happy.


Stop, you'll wake my anger about all the needlessly cancelled projects.

Ukraine news:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506867112542937094
I think you can make out the ship's prominent bow to the right of the fire column.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506871210449252353
Here you can clearly see it's the fuel tanks on fire. Unclear if there is damage to the ship.


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> Yep.
> 
> The Euros need energy.  We have energy.  We sell energy. We make money.
> 
> We spend money on German tanks and housing Canadian troops in Latvia.
> 
> Everybody happy.


Or if you prefer we can sell wheat, barley, hogs and cattle.

Their prices are looking pretty good.  Potash. Sulfur.

Uranium.

We are not short of things the world wants to buy just now.


----------



## TacticalTea

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506688082657091584
As expected, Uncle Sam is entrusted with the big stuff 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506824491778949129
France on alert. Hadn't deployed 3 at once since the 80s, and completed a full launch exercise (minus nuclear warhead) yesterday.


----------



## TacticalTea

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506872567701061633
Leaning towards the scenario of Ukrainian action and at least one Alligator-class ship neutralized. Apparently, smoke problems might be debilitating for two other ships.

Now, lemme channel my inner Paul Bremer: *Ladies and gentlemen, we got 'em.*


----------



## McG

Would like to see more of that Black Sea Fleet taken out of the fight.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Russia's recruiting woes?  All Banderist/Nazi/nationalist lies!  After all, according to the RUS MoD info-machine, planning for the upcoming Northern Fleet hockey season continues apace (Google English translation below - full Russian & GoogEng text attached) #HockeyTeamMissedDuties



> A working meeting of the council and representatives of the teams of the Northern Military Hockey League was held at the headquarters of the Northern Fleet under the leadership of Deputy Fleet Commander Vice Admiral Oleg Golubev. The pressing issues of the hockey season were discussed. Presentations were made by Assistant Commander of the Fleet - Head of Physical Training and Sports of the Northern Fleet Colonel Pavel Koshkarev, Chief Judge of the SVHL Lieutenant Colonel Maxim Zubarevich and Head Coach of the Fleet Hockey Team Senior Lieutenant Konstantin Ganin.
> 
> The features of the current hockey season are the holding of several children's blitz tournaments dedicated to holidays and memorable dates. Two have already been held: New Year's and in honor of Defender of the Fatherland Day. On March 27, at the ice arena in Severomorsk, the games of the next tournament dedicated to the past Submariner's Day will take place. Of the children's teams, the best results are demonstrated by the Palubnik team from the Severomorsk-3 aviator garrison, which took second and first places at the past competitions.
> 
> In the hockey championship of the Murmansk region, the team of the Northern Fleet is unconditionally in the lead, having not lost a single match to its rivals. Naval hockey players received invitations to the open championship in the city of Kazan, which will be held next week, as well as to the Victory Cup tournaments in the Penza region and the Ushakov Cup in Sevastopol.
> 
> The hockey players of the Northern Fleet team are planning to take part in the championship of the Russian Armed Forces in St. Petersburg, as well as compete for the Black Sea Fleet Commander's Cup in Sevastopol and the Northern Cities Cup in Dudinka.


Also from RUS's info-machine - check out the branding on the food parcels reportedly being handed out in Mariupol (virus-checked screen grab from RUS MoD video) #NotZellers


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest from the UKR mil int tote board ....


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506872121858969600


----------



## Haggis

Altair said:


> But how are we going to pay for it...


We won't.  

Trudeau still has in excess of $50B in unfunded election promises to fulfil.  He has already kicked one big ticket item down the road by 18 months at least.  In six months, Ukraine will be a smoking hole in the map and home heating season will be starting up again after another carbon tax hike.  Defence spending will not be in anyone thoughts.


----------



## Czech_pivo

suffolkowner said:


> CanadaSpainItalyfighter jets94153160AAR5410strategic airlift5120tactical airlift172823MPA1433EW0116AEW/AWACS002SSK428frigates121216patrol ships142123RAS124AAS023carrier012tanks82273200IFV0261198APC976648930towed artillery37840SPH09654MLRS0021Patriot030NASAAM080SAM01348MALE0412
> 
> very rough and very quick


That 94 for fighters is really 72 operational type 'A' and the remainder being type 'B', trainers from what I can gather.

When we initially purchased the F-18 we bought 98 Type 'A' and 40 Type (2 seaters) for training purposes.  
Over the years we are now down to 72 of the initial 98 Type 'A' are operational.  Add into this mix the 2nd hand Aussie planes, where 18 planes in total were bought.  I do not know how many of the 72 that are operational are 2nd Aussie planes. Lets make an assumption and say half of the 18 Aussie planes, so 9 are included in our 72 operational CF-18. So backing out 9 Aussie planes out of 72 leaves us with 63 Type 'A' of the original purchase of 98.  This means that *approx. 1/3 *of the total Type A fleet has been written off from initial delivery time period of 1982 through 1988 until today. 

The current plan under the Liberals is to *buy 88 planes*, down to either the F-35 or the Gripen.  I'm not certain what the ratio of fighter plane to trainer plane is, but let's assume that a cool dozen (12) are trainers.  That leaves use with 76 actual fighters, *just 4 more* than what we currently have, *after 40yrs of attrition* *and a secondary purchase of another 18 planes.  *Does anyone else see where I'm going with this? 

If I fast forward 20yrs into the future (half the lifespan of our current fighter fleet), it is 100% certain that our *fighter fleet* will be hovering around the 64-69 operational number - below our current required need for NORAD and NATO commitments.  We currently have 4 operational squadrons, 2 in Alberta and 2 in Quebec - 36 in each place if the 2 operational squadrons at each location holds true.

So in conclusion, with the wording coming out now from our DM about 'enhancing NORAD' capabilities and the present day environment about increasing our defence spending, I'm putting forward the proposal that our *current shopping list of 88 fighter planes is embarrassing too low*.  A more realistic number is somewhere around 110-120 planes, at a minimal.


----------



## McG

If only there were a thread for the CF-188 replacement in which to discuss this.


----------



## Portnord

So about that argument on Canadian capabilities... the video I had posted yesterday was actually arguing that part of Ukraine's success was that Russia had failed to spend on capabilities that would specifically help in a war like Ukraine, whereas Ukraine is pretty much focused 100% on defending itself from Russia as well as receiving plenty of aid to that purpose. So the gap is not as severe as it looks on paper. The idea being you can do more with less, IF you are capable of defining what it is that you want to do and sticking to it.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Kilted said:


> Are we just leaving the Ivan-bot around for entertainment purposes?


Read the site guidelines and tell me which guideline they have violated?



Altair said:


> I agree, i dont think people should be banned for being annoying.



No but they should be banned for trolling, which is a violation of the site guidelines 😉


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Dana381 said:


> *Unless they are just being annoying for the sake of being annoying*, That gets old fast. As for your case I don't know details. Nor do I want to, it's not my business.


Also known as trolling, a violation of the site guidelines which every member agreed to when they joined the forum 😉


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506991457818791938
Some people taking advantage of Russians being distracted.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

TacticalTea said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506872567701061633
> Leaning towards the scenario of Ukrainian action and at least one Alligator-class ship neutralized. Apparently, smoke problems might be debilitating for two other ships.
> 
> Now, lemme channel my inner Paul Bremer: *Ladies and gentlemen, we got 'em.*


I give kudos to the captain and crew of those LST's for managing to get out of there, although one does have a fire on deck.


----------



## TacticalTea

Colin Parkinson said:


> I give kudos to the captain and crew of those LST's for managing to get out of there, although one does have a fire on deck.


Yep, that was my first thought seeing that footage! 

''Damn, they actually manage to get out, good on them''

Wondering if the whole crew was onboard and who called the shots.


----------



## TacticalTea

Remius said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506991457818791938
> Some people taking advantage of Russians being distracted.


Had to wonder for a moment what North Korea had to do with Baku...

The former has been on my mind since they launched their first ICBM yesterday.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

TacticalTea said:


> Yep, that was my first thought seeing that footage!
> 
> ''Damn, they actually manage to get out, good on them''
> 
> Wondering if the whole crew was onboard and who called the shots.


I suspect the LST's are some of the hardest working vessels of the fleet and likely the crews and Captains are a good team and switched on.


----------



## daftandbarmy

TacticalTea said:


> Had to wonder for a moment what North Korea had to do with Baku...
> 
> The former has been on my mind since they launched their first ICBM yesterday.



Nagorno-Karabakh (I had to look it up to remind myself too).

Don't worry, Russian Peacekeepers are on the job! 

Russia Proposes Armenia-Azerbaijan Commission To Demarcate Border Amid Incursion Dispute​Russia says it has *proposed setting up a joint commission* to demarcate the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, amid renewed *Yerevan-Baku tensions* over the past week over an alleged Azerbaijani military incursion.

Armenia has accused Azerbaijani troops of crossing several kilometers into its Syunik and Gegharkunik provinces and trying to stake a claim to territory.

Azerbaijan insists that its troops did not cross into Armenia and simply took up positions on the Azerbaijani side of the frontier that were not accessible in winter months.










						Russia Proposes Armenia-Azerbaijan Commission To Demarcate Border
					

Russia says it has proposed setting up a joint commission to demarcate the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, amid renewed Yerevan-Baku tensions over the past week over an alleged Azerbaijani military incursion.




					www.rferl.org


----------



## Spencer100

Colin Parkinson said:


> I give kudos to the captain and crew of those LST's for managing to get out of there, although one does have a fire on deck.


Question. How long does it take to spin up the engines and motors on ships?  Minutes or seconds? I think on old steamers it was hours.  Hit start throw the lines?


----------



## Remius

daftandbarmy said:


> Nagorno-Karabakh (I had to look it up to remind myself too).
> 
> Don't worry, Russian Peacekeepers are on the job!
> 
> Russia Proposes Armenia-Azerbaijan Commission To Demarcate Border Amid Incursion Dispute​Russia says it has *proposed setting up a joint commission* to demarcate the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, amid renewed *Yerevan-Baku tensions* over the past week over an alleged Azerbaijani military incursion.
> 
> Armenia has accused Azerbaijani troops of crossing several kilometers into its Syunik and Gegharkunik provinces and trying to stake a claim to territory.
> 
> Azerbaijan insists that its troops did not cross into Armenia and simply took up positions on the Azerbaijani side of the frontier that were not accessible in winter months.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia Proposes Armenia-Azerbaijan Commission To Demarcate Border
> 
> 
> Russia says it has proposed setting up a joint commission to demarcate the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, amid renewed Yerevan-Baku tensions over the past week over an alleged Azerbaijani military incursion.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rferl.org


I won’t be too surprised to see more this stuff in other areas as Russia tries to figure out what it’s doing in Ukraine.


----------



## Fishbone Jones

Good2Golf said:


> That’s asking more than Canadians are willing to give…


I don't imagine that is something that trudeau loses any sleep over.


----------



## Fishbone Jones

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> We also have no way of knowing if the 'Ukraine' side is truthful either.   History will decide that for us.....
> 
> Just allowing one side of any part of history makes us no better then "those" news media outlets controlled by the State.


History is written by the victors.


----------



## Dana381

Ukraine tractor battalion at work again!


----------



## NavyShooter

For how long it takes to get 'off the wall', it depends on the ship's powerplant.

A steam based plan usually has to start flashing up boilers and such the day prior to sailing.  Sometimes it's as little as 8 hours, but usually day before.

Newer ships with fancy gearboxes and gas turbines or big marine diesel engines have a shorter flashup time, and that comes down to what the condition of auxiliary systems are in ie. Main Lube Oil temps and such.  

When dealing with a Gas Turbine, starting the engine, assuming the ancillaries are up and running, will take less than 2 minutes.

I suspect that the ships, being in a danger area, were kept at 15 minutes notice for power, meaning pumps, auxiliary and ancillary systems were in a full state of readiness, a steaming watch was closed up, roundsmen were checking running equipment, and they were able to go quickly.  

NS


----------



## Remius

NavyShooter said:


> For how long it takes to get 'off the wall', it depends on the ship's powerplant.
> 
> A steam based plan usually has to start flashing up boilers and such the day prior to sailing.  Sometimes it's as little as 8 hours, but usually day before.
> 
> Newer ships with fancy gearboxes and gas turbines or big marine diesel engines have a shorter flashup time, and that comes down to what the condition of auxiliary systems are in ie. Main Lube Oil temps and such.
> 
> When dealing with a Gas Turbine, starting the engine, assuming the ancillaries are up and running, will take less than 2 minutes.
> 
> I suspect that the ships, being in a danger area, were kept at 15 minutes notice for power, meaning pumps, auxiliary and ancillary systems were in a full state of readiness, a steaming watch was closed up, roundsmen were checking running equipment, and they were able to go quickly.
> 
> NS


It’s posts like this that make coming here worth it.  Thanks.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Russian media reports: Tochka-U hit Berdyansk port, causing fire and secondary detonations. Two Russian Navy landing ships immediately left the port, third one is reportedly damaged.

Seems that damage might be a lot


and whatever happened, I don't think much of the crew of the burning LST survived, look at the fire showing through the bow doors.


----------



## Quirky

Colin Parkinson said:


> Russian media reports: Tochka-U hit Berdyansk port, causing fire and secondary detonations. Two Russian Navy landing ships immediately left the port, third one is reportedly damaged



lol. Russian media would attribute the sinking of the Titanic to the iceberg hitting the ship....


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> Nagorno-Karabakh (I had to look it up to remind myself too).
> 
> Don't worry, Russian Peacekeepers are on the job!
> 
> Russia Proposes Armenia-Azerbaijan Commission To Demarcate Border Amid Incursion Dispute​Russia says it has *proposed setting up a joint commission* to demarcate the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, amid renewed *Yerevan-Baku tensions* over the past week over an alleged Azerbaijani military incursion.
> 
> Armenia has accused Azerbaijani troops of crossing several kilometers into its Syunik and Gegharkunik provinces and trying to stake a claim to territory.
> 
> Azerbaijan insists that its troops did not cross into Armenia and simply took up positions on the Azerbaijani side of the frontier that were not accessible in winter months.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia Proposes Armenia-Azerbaijan Commission To Demarcate Border
> 
> 
> Russia says it has proposed setting up a joint commission to demarcate the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, amid renewed Yerevan-Baku tensions over the past week over an alleged Azerbaijani military incursion.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rferl.org



Were on the job?

I gather that Russia has been stripping its foreign garrisons to feed Ukraine.


----------



## ueo

Brad Sallows said:


> Well.  If a war escalates to include NATO, the Russian navy is on the table.  And while it won't be a pushover, I can guess that it'll be heavily written down, especially in the land-locked ponds known as the Baltic, Black, and Mediterranean Seas.  And that won't be replaceable in six months.  The pro-Russians suffering a case of puffy-chest should think their belligerent attitude through.


Slightly off point but I wonder why UAF have not nailed some of the targets flopping around the Black Sea. Lack of ordinance? Seems that most NATO countries have some form of antiship missle just begging for employment. Just send a couple along, sink a few and watch Vlad reconsider. At least it would build his stress levels up a great deal.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

We must not allow a Water Cooled Gun Gap 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506774607059161089


----------



## Spencer100

ueo said:


> Slightly off point but I wonder why UAF have not nailed some of the targets flopping around the Black Sea. Lack of ordinance? Seems that most NATO countries have some form of antiship missle just begging for employment. Just send a couple along, sink a few and watch Vlad reconsider. At least it would build his stress levels up a great deal.


I would think NATO countries may believe it is an escalation.  The antiship weapons would be used outside of the Ukraine territory in international water of the black sea.  Everyone (ie Canada, UK, etc.) is saying all weapons sent are "defensive" weaponry.

Also training and control issues would play a part.  Plus weapon integration if aircraft fired.


----------



## Kirkhill

ueo said:


> Slightly off point but I wonder why UAF have not nailed some of the targets flopping around the Black Sea. Lack of ordinance? Seems that most NATO countries have some form of antiship missle just begging for employment. Just send a couple along, sink a few and watch Vlad reconsider. At least it would build his stress levels up a great deal.



I think that is what Zelensky is begging for.  Send Harpoons, NSMs, GMRLSs,  GBADs, even tanks.  The Ukrainians will put them to good use.


----------



## MilEME09

ueo said:


> Slightly off point but I wonder why UAF have not nailed some of the targets flopping around the Black Sea. Lack of ordinance? Seems that most NATO countries have some form of antiship missle just begging for employment. Just send a couple along, sink a few and watch Vlad reconsider. At least it would build his stress levels up a great deal.


From what I am hearing their inventory is limited so they holding back for now


----------



## TacticalTea

Spencer100 said:


> I would think NATO countries may believe it is an escalation.  The antiship weapons would be used outside of the Ukraine territory in international water of the black sea.  Everyone (ie Canada, UK, etc.) is saying all weapons sent are "defensive" weaponry.
> 
> Also training and control issues would play a part.  Plus weapon integration if aircraft fired.


The best defence is an offence!


----------



## ueo

Spencer100 said:


> I would think NATO countries may believe it is an escalation.  The antiship weapons would be used outside of the Ukraine territory in international water of the black sea.  Everyone (ie Canada, UK, etc.) is saying all weapons sent are "defensive" weaponry.
> 
> Also training and control issues would play a part.  Plus weapon integration if aircraft fired.


Agree with possible integration and training problems. I'm not so sure about "international waters". What is the contiguous water area belonging to UKR? The CNN  shots make the targets appear to be within fairly clear visual limits. Any ideas on what UKR claims and estimates on range from shore to whats there? Semantics again- "defensive", any launch could easily defended as defensive in nature as a hit/target destruction would reduce the threaat would it not?


----------



## NavyShooter

Ukraine’s Anti-Ship Missiles Might Arrive Too Late For A War With Russia
					

One of Ukraine's most important new weapons systems, a locally-made anti-ship missile, could be just a few months too late to make any difference in the fighting if Russia invades this winter.




					www.forbes.com
				




It seems Ukraine was a bit slow getting their domestic Anti-Ship Missile production line going - they're probably kicking themselves for that. 

I'm guessing that they probably have a few prototypes that they've got dolled up ready to go, but since I'm guessing, I'd suggest they probably kept them close to Odessa and were holding them tight for use in case of an actual landing operation.  

Depending on their ability to generate a RMP (Recognized Maritime Picture) they'd have a few things to worry about in terms of target de-confliction.  I think they're also probably a 'one shot' chance, so they'd want to use them on targets as close to shore as they could, with a maximum likelihood of successful engagement.  

It would be 'bad form' for them to fire a bunch of missiles in an 'over the horizon' shot and have them miss.  

It would be very bad for them if they fired, missed, and hit a non-combatant ship.


----------



## McG

ueo said:


> Slightly off point but I wonder why UAF have not nailed some of the targets flopping around the Black Sea. Lack of ordinance? Seems that most NATO countries have some form of antiship missle just begging for employment. Just send a couple along, sink a few and watch Vlad reconsider. At least it would build his stress levels up a great deal.


Some NATO countries even have Soviet anti-ship missiles.

... and it's Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) not UAF.


----------



## Kirkhill

Spencer100 said:


> I would think NATO countries may believe it is an escalation.  The antiship weapons would be used outside of the Ukraine territory in international water of the black sea.  Everyone (ie Canada, UK, etc.) is saying all weapons sent are "defensive" weaponry.
> 
> Also training and control issues would play a part.  Plus weapon integration if aircraft fired.



Bayraktar has a range of 6000 km.
Su-25 has a range of 750 km
Su-27 has a range of 1500 to 3000 km

So I can't see the range being the issue.  

NATO is generally just risk averse.


----------



## Kirkhill

McG said:


> Some NATO countries even have Soviet anti-ship missiles.
> 
> ... and it's Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) not UAF.



And the Swedes have their RBS-15 family









						RBS 15 - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




Strangely enough their RBS-15 looks a lot like a target drone.


----------



## Spencer100

Kirkhill said:


> Bayraktar has a range of 6000 km.
> Su-25 has a range of 750 km
> Su-27 has a range of 1500 to 3000 km
> 
> So I can't see the range being the issue.
> 
> NATO is generally just risk averse.


Risk averse.  I don't think NATO has supplied anything to Ukraine with over a 10 mile range. (Bayrakter not withstanding) And most much shorter.  So an antiship missile would be a escalation.  I am not justifying just trying to understand.


----------



## YZT580

MilEME09 said:


> From what I am hearing their inventory is limited so they holding back for now


Don't need to, they have just demonstrated that they are able to strike within a soviet controlled port and accurately target a ship.  Would suggest to other Russian skippers that a frontal attack on Odessa could/would be very costly


----------



## Czech_pivo

Have to wonder if any of the dockworkers there made any effort at all to put out the fires after the initial explosions stopped.  A significant part of the dockyard might be non-usable  now.






TacticalTea said:


> Yep, that was my first thought seeing that footage!
> 
> ''Damn, they actually manage to get out, good on them''
> 
> Wondering if the whole crew was onboard and who called the shots.


----------



## Kirkhill

A 4 minute BBC report on the Voznesensk action in Southern Ukraine where Russia tried to outflank Mykolaiv to get to Odesa.


----------



## Kirkhill

YZT580 said:


> Don't need to, they have just demonstrated that they are able to strike within a soviet controlled port and accurately target a ship.  Would suggest to other Russian skippers that a frontal attack on Odessa could/would be very costly




__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tmnwgz


----------



## Kirkhill

Zelensky's speech to NATO


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tm5kq9


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> Zelensky's speech to NATO
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tm5kq9



The real question is: can NATO come up to Ukrainian standards?


----------



## Remius

daftandbarmy said:


> The real question is: can NATO come up to Ukrainian standards?


Maybe they could send us some trainers and advisors.


----------



## OceanBonfire

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506073301789167619


----------



## The Bread Guy

Remius said:


> Maybe they could send us some trainers and advisors.


... or at least tractor operators?


----------



## Kirkhill

Interesting New York Times piece about an early batter for Makariv on the road to Kyiv.

Pieced together from intercepted radio chatter and video captures from cell phones.

Logistics, Comms, Support and Command and Control all problems from day one.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tm19dn


----------



## Spencer100

Question.  Would taking out the Crimean Bridge over the Strait of Kerch between Russia and Crimea be a large blow to Russia? Or just make the people in Crimea more in the Russian camp.  Could the Ukrainians do it or is it a bridge too far?


----------



## NavyShooter

The way things are going...the Ukrainians might want to keep it up so they can keep going south and reclaim their territory...we'll see.


----------



## Kirkhill

Polish President Duda









						Duda: If they attack, we have a place to bury them
					

Watch "Duda: If they attack, we have a place to bury them" on Streamable.




					streamable.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Spencer100 said:


> Question.  Would taking out the Crimean Bridge over the Strait of Kerch between Russia and Crimea be a large blow to Russia? Or just make the people in Crimea more in the Russian camp.  Could the Ukrainians do it or is it a bridge too far?



It might serve the Russians to blow it up.  I have seen a report from Ukraine, repeated by the ISW, that the Russians are blocking the bridge to prevent Russians fleeing Crimea.


> *Supporting Effort #3—Kherson and advances northward and westward:*
> 
> Russian forces in and around Kherson and Mykolayiv, as well as those advancing on Kryvyih Ryh and Zaporizhiya, did not conduct significant offensive operations in the past 24 hours.[15] Ukrainian military intelligence reported that Russian forces are preparing to block the Kerch Bridge to prevent Russians from leaving Crimea.[16] The GUR claims that this measure is a response to panic among Russians in Crimea, particularly those who moved to the peninsula after 2014, especially among the families of Russian military and government personnel. We have no independent verification of these GUR reports.







__





						Institute for the Study of War
					

Russian forces continued to settle in for a protracted and stalemated conflict over the last 24 hours, with more reports emerging of Russian troops digging in and laying mines—indications that they have gone over to the defensive. Ukrainian forces c




					www.understandingwar.org
				




Thanks to @Infanteer for the lead.


----------



## OceanBonfire

Canadian troops banned from joining foreign fighters in Ukraine - National | Globalnews.ca
					

Members of the Canadian Armed Forces have been banned from joining the thousands of foreigners who have flocked to Ukraine in recent weeks to help fight Russia's invasion.




					globalnews.ca
				




Not surprised in this long thread but at least Ukraine is weeding out most of the weirdos:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506640796811943936


----------



## Remius

The Bread Guy said:


> ... or at least tractor operators?


If we are going to reach 2% of GDP, tractor capability would be one way.   Everyone is focused on SOF, Cyber and Space but we really should include Tractor.


----------



## Kirkhill

> According to available information, the Russian military leadership is aware of the insufficiency of the available forces and means of holding the territories temporarily occupied by them and conducting combat operations.
> 
> *In order to restore combat readiness, a number of decisions were made to remove obsolete armored vehicles from storage and send them to military units.* In particular, weapons and military equipment are currently being transferred to the territory of Belarus and the temporarily occupied Crimea in order to carry out an attempt to attack and encircle Kyiv.
> 
> At the same time, units of the Belarusian armed forces continue to be involved in covering certain sections of the Belarusian-Ukrainian border.
> 
> In order to replenish the losses, the Russian invaders call up reserve officers, privates and non-commissioned officers from among those liable for military service. The practice of involving mercenaries, recruited by Russian PMCs, continues.











						Russia decides to adjust war plan in Ukraine – AFU General Staff
					

The Russian military-political leadership has decided to adjust plans for further military operations on the territory of Ukraine due to the fact that the goals set before the start of the war with Ukraine were not met on time, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces Ukraine.




					en.interfax.com.ua
				




Like the Kerch Bridge report this comes from Ukrainian sources.  Mileage may vary.


----------



## Kirkhill

And another sign of the problems associated with trying to get all 30 NATO countries singing off the same hymn sheet.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tm2wi5


----------



## Kirkhill

Again, more Ukrainian Info


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tmnkhb

Here's the Reddit thread which all of this came from.









						r/ukraine
					

r/ukraine: HERE УКРАЇНА TAKES CENTER STAGE — The purpose of r/Ukraine is to amplify Ukrainian voices. We are at war, so content is tightly moderated …




					www.reddit.com


----------



## McG

So, I guess Russia has pick the date by which it wants Ukraine to have destroyed its fascists invaders. Odd. Normally you don’t schedule your own defeat.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507095376247074826


----------



## Brad Sallows

Huh.  Just about the time the ground firms up.  Well, they say the best strategy is formless.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Remius said:


> Maybe they could send us some trainers and advisors.


And convene a meeting .


----------



## Kirkhill

And on the subject of strategy.









						Americans don’t think Biden is being tough enough on Russia - AP-NORC
					

While there is strong support for the U.S. sanctions against Russia, most say President Biden has not been tough enough in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine.




					apnorc.org


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tm9gxw


----------



## Kirkhill

Current state of play


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tmvy0a


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tmqxbz



			https://i.redd.it/wsmp464o18p81.jpg
		





One thing I don't understand is the importance of the Land Bridge through Mariupol to Crimea.

Unless the Russians can dramatically expand the strip along the coast they will be under constant shell fire from the Ukrainians along its entire length.


----------



## Kirkhill

And Reuters is reporting that Anti-Ship Missiles are/maybe on their way.









						U.S. and allies aiming to provide anti-ship missiles to Kyiv, official says
					

The United States and its allies are working on supporting Ukraine with anti-ship missiles, a senior U.S. administration official said on Thursday.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tm9gxw



More about that from the Economist:


Weaning Europe off Russian energy will mean making changes​So far, little has been asked of citizens​

AT LAST, the spring. For months Europeans have lived with the threat of losing the Russian gas that keeps their homes warm. The prospect seems less daunting now that daffodils are blooming. But despite the seasonal serenity, a wrenching energy transition is under way. Europe wants to cut imports of gas from Russia by two-thirds within a year. Behind the scenes, politicians and companies are already scrambling to work out how to cope next winter. The obvious upshot, one might expect, would be a change in consumer behaviour not seen since the 1970s, when dizzying oil prices caused a rethink of how the West lived. Not so. While European leaders exude an air of war-time concern, the public is living as if nothing were amiss in a continent at peace.

Energy prices, whether of petrol, gas or electricity, have rocketed in Europe. Some people might barely have noticed. In France, the authorities have essentially capped electricity and gas bills. Italy on March 18th added €4.4bn ($4.8bn) in subsidies to limit power-price rises for companies and consumers, on top of the €16bn already agreed in recent months. Several countries have cut petrol duties, a much-needed source of tax income. European leaders meeting in Brussels as _The Economist_ went to press were due to discuss new state largesse to households and industry. This is the “whatever it takes” approach at work. As with covid-19, government is paying first and will ask questions later.

What is startling is how little is being asked of Europeans. Even simple measures that might barely inconvenience people are treated as taboo. Earlier this month the International Energy Agency (IEA), which advises rich-country governments, suggested that Europeans might consider turning down the thermostat by just one degree centigrade. What might seem like mere virtue-signalling greenery would actually cut consumption by 10bn cubic metres of natural gas over a year. That is roughly one month’s worth of Russian imports. This modest appeal was relayed by precisely nobody in office.

Some EU governments want to ban Russian oil, the Kremlin’s biggest money-spinner. Yet no one is seriously considering the obvious way of using less of it. Lowering motorway speed limits by 10kph would trim fuel use in the rich world by around 15%, not to be scoffed at when Europe is scrambling for any hydrocarbons it can get. Throw in subsidies to boost the use of public transport, a plea to work from home one day a week where possible and a ban on car use in cities on Sundays, and Europe could save perhaps a fifth of the Russian oil it imports, according to IEA figures and Charlemagne’s guesswork. These may or may not be sensible ideas. The point is that they are not being discussed.

Why is Europe not rediscovering the spirit of the 1970s? Back then the European public was expected to accept some discomfort and inconvenience. Speed limits went from the exception to the norm (except on German autobahns, of course). Dutch and German cities were among those that went pedestrian one day a week. France decreed public buildings should be no warmer than 20°C, two degrees lower than today’s European average. Television broadcasting was shut off at 11pm, an idea that could usefully be revived for social media. Daylight-saving schemes adopted during the world wars were soon revived across the continent. “Whatever it takes” involved people donning jumpers.

Lots of ideas to cut back energy use tomorrow are being mooted. But few Europeans are even being nudged to use less energy today. One reason may be that the rich world has changed in 50 years. Past crises have helped make modern economies more energy efficient. The current oil and gas shock is not so painful, especially since the world has become used to seesawing crude prices. But recent history outside Europe suggests that rapid change is possible. After Japan shut down its nuclear plants in the aftermath of the Fukushima disaster in 2011, a public-information campaign beseeched people to cut back energy use. Trains were slowed, air-conditioners were turned down and employers moved shifts to save power. A similar campaign is nowhere to be seen in Europe.
Keep cool​The absence of such measures reflects three factors. The first is that Europe may not truly be committed to weaning itself off Russian hydrocarbons. More storage of gas at EU level, as looks likely to be agreed, could dent Russia’s stranglehold on Europe. Some might think that will solve the problem, at least if the war ends soon. Keeping the option, if not the necessity, of importing Russian gas would avoid a painful pivot away from cheap power.

Second, energy is a politically toxic topic. The mere mention of speed limits or dearer petrol triggers accusations of urban politicians ignoring the plight of car-dependent provincial folk. Spanish farmers are protesting about energy prices. France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, wants no more _gilets jaunes _protests ahead of an election next month. Europe is on a glide path to “net zero” emissions, to which the Ukraine crisis has given fresh impetus. Sensible long-term policy might be derailed by rash short-term measures in reaction to transient (albeit traumatic) events.

The third, and most depressing, possibility is that politicians now think their electorates are incapable of sacrifice. Two years of pandemic-era nagging has tested the public enough. The end of covid-19 restrictions (if not the virus itself) was meant to presage a new Roaring Twenties. That is no time for hair-shirt preachiness. “A Europe that protects” is a recent Brussels mantra: citizens must not be inconvenienced by a changing world.

This is a shame. Ukrainians are daily making sacrifices on an extraordinary scale. A growing number of Europeans are opening their homes to them and making donations. The public mood in Europe is of defiance towards Vladimir Putin. Nobody needs a politician’s blessing to lower the thermostat or skip a flight. But it is depressing that none of them has even thought to ask.










						Weaning Europe off Russian energy will mean making changes
					

So far, little has been asked of citizens




					www.economist.com


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tn0thd


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> Current state of play
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tmvy0a
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tmqxbz
> 
> 
> 
> https://i.redd.it/wsmp464o18p81.jpg
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 69686
> 
> 
> One thing I don't understand is the importance of the Land Bridge through Mariupol to Crimea.
> sed
> Unless the Russians can dramatically expand the strip along the coast they will be under constant shell fire from the Ukrainians along its entire length.



If you cut off Ukraine's only access to the sea you also disconnect it from any hope of participating in any Mediterranean/ Black Sea focused commercial activity.

Imagine if, for example, Canada's West Coast was occupied by an unfriendly superpower...

... kind of like the USA was trying to do to us in the 19th C


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> If you cut off Ukraine's only access to the sea you also disconnect it from any hope of participating in any Mediterranean/ Black Sea focused commercial activity.
> 
> *Imagine if, for example, Canada's West Coast was occupied by an unfriendly superpower*...
> 
> ... kind of like the USA was trying to do to us in the 19th C



You mean like the NDP?

At least the Ukrainians call shell their unfriendly neighbours.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507109806653550607


----------



## Kirkhill

More on the Kyiv Region from tonight's Telegraph









						Ukraine evening briefing: Five developments as Boris Johnson says 'barbaric' Vladimir Putin must fail
					

Plus: Nato will respond 'in kind' to chemical weapons attack, and Russia accuses Hunter Biden of 'funding biological weapons labs'




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## MilEME09

Not independently verified but wow









						Exclusive: U.S. assesses up to 60% failure rate for some Russian missiles, officials say
					

The United States assesses that Russia is suffering failure rates as high as 60% for some of the precision-guided missiles it is using to attack Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of the intelligence told Reuters.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

The moral is to the physical as three is to one, indeed....

Ukraine’s Three-to-One Advantage​It’s not technology or tactics that has given Ukrainian fighters their greatest edge.
By Elliot Ackerman

About the author: Elliot Ackerman is the author, most recently, of the novel _Red Dress in Black and White_ and a co-author of the novel _2034_. He is a former Marine and intelligence officer who served five tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan.

A few nights ago in Lviv, after an early dinner (restaurants shut at 8 p.m. because of curfew), I stepped into the elevator of my hotel. I was chatting with a colleague when a man in early middle age, dressed and equipped like a backpacker, thrust his hand into the closing door. “You guys American?” he asked. I told him we were, and as he reached for the elevator button, I couldn’t help but notice his dirty hands and the half-moons of filth beneath each fingernail. I also noticed his fleece. It had an eagle, a globe, and an anchor embossed on its left breast. “You a Marine?” I asked. He said he was (or had been—once a Marine, always a Marine), and I told him that I’d served in the Marines too.

He introduced himself (he’s asked that I not use his name, so let’s just call him Jed), and we did a quick swap of bona fides, exchanging the names of the units in which we’d both served as infantrymen a decade ago. Jed asked if I knew where he could get a cup of coffee, or at least a cup of tea. He had, after a 10-hour journey, only just arrived from Kyiv. He was tired and cold, and everything was closed.

A little cajoling persuaded the hotel restaurant to boil Jed a pot of water and hand him a few tea bags. When I wished him a good night, he asked if I wanted some tea too. The way he asked—like a kid pleading for a last story before bed—persuaded me to stay a little while longer. He wanted someone to talk with.

As Jed sat across from me in the empty restaurant, with his shoulders hunched forward over the table and his palms cupped around the tea, he explained that since arriving in Ukraine at the end of February, he had been fighting as a volunteer along with a dozen other foreigners outside Kyiv. The past three weeks had marked him. When I asked how he was holding up, he said the combat had been more intense than anything he’d witnessed in Afghanistan. He seemed conflicted, as if he wanted to talk about this experience, but not in terms that could turn emotional. Perhaps to guard against this, he began to discuss the technical aspects of what he’d seen, explaining in granular detail how the outmanned, outgunned Ukrainian military had fought the Russians to a standstill.

First, Jed wanted to discuss anti-armor weapons, particularly the American-made Javelin and the British-made NLAW. The past month of fighting had demonstrated that the balance of lethality had shifted away from armor, and toward anti-armor weapons. Even the most advanced armor systems, such as the Russian T-90 series main battle tank, had proved vulnerable, their charred husks littering Ukrainian roadways.

When I mentioned to Jed that I’d fought in Fallujah in 2004, he said that the tactics the Marine Corps used to take that city would never work today in Ukraine. In Fallujah, our infantry worked in close coordination with our premier tank, the M1A2 Abrams. On several occasions, I watched our tanks take direct hits from rocket-propelled grenades (typically older-generation RPG-7s) without so much as a stutter in their forward progress. Today, a Ukrainian defending Kyiv or any other city, armed with a Javelin or an NLAW, would destroy a similarly capable tank.

If the costly main battle tank is the archetypal platform of an army (as is the case for Russia and NATO), then the archetypal platform of a navy (particularly America’s Navy) is the ultra-costly capital ship, such as an aircraft carrier. Just as modern anti-tank weapons have turned the tide for the outnumbered Ukrainian army, the latest generation of anti-ship missiles (both shore- and sea-based) could in the future—say, in a place like the South China Sea or the Strait of Hormuz—turn the tide for a seemingly outmatched navy. Since February 24, the Ukrainian military has convincingly displayed the superiority of an anti-platform-centric method of warfare. Or, as Jed put it, “In Afghanistan, I used to feel jealous of those tankers, buttoned up in all that armor. Not anymore.”

This brought Jed to the second subject he wanted to discuss: Russian tactics and doctrine. He said he had spent much of the past few weeks in the trenches northwest of Kyiv. “The Russians have no imagination,” he said. “They would shell our positions, attack in large formations, and when their assaults failed, do it all over again. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians would raid the Russian lines in small groups night after night, wearing them down.” Jed’s observation echoed a conversation I’d had the day before with Andriy Zagorodnyuk. After Russia’s invasion of the Donbas in 2014, Zagorodnyuk oversaw a number of reforms to the Ukrainian military that are now bearing fruit, chief among them changes in Ukraine’s military doctrine; then, from 2019 to 2020, he served as minister of defense.

Russian doctrine relies on centralized command and control, while mission-style command and control—as the name suggests—relies on the individual initiative of every soldier, from the private to the general, not only to understand the mission but then to use their initiative to adapt to the exigencies of a chaotic and ever-changing battlefield in order to accomplish that mission. Although the Russian military has modernized under Vladimir Putin, it has never embraced the decentralized mission-style command-and-control structure that is the hallmark of NATO militaries, and that the Ukrainians have since adopted.

“The Russians don’t empower their soldiers,” Zagorodnyuk explained. “They tell their soldiers to go from Point A to Point B, and only when they get to Point B will they be told where to go next, and junior soldiers are rarely told the _reason_ they are performing any task. This centralized command and control can work, but only when events go according to plan. When the plan doesn’t hold together, their centralized method collapses. No one can adapt, and you get things like 40-mile-long traffic jams outside Kyiv.”

The individual Russian soldier’s lack of knowledge corresponded with a story Jed told me, one that drove home the consequences of this lack of knowledge on the part of individual Russian soldiers. During a failed night assault on his trench, a group of Russian soldiers got lost in the nearby woods. “Eventually, they started calling out,” he said. “I couldn’t help it; I felt bad. They had no idea where to go.”

When I asked what happened to them, he returned a grim look.

Instead of recounting that part of the story, he described the advantage Ukrainians enjoy in night-vision technology. When I told him I’d heard the Ukrainians didn’t have many sets of night-vision goggles, he said that was true, and that they did need more. “But we’ve got Javelins. Everyone’s talking about the Javelins as an anti-tank weapon, but people forget that the Javelins also have a CLU.”

The CLU, or command launch unit, is a highly capable thermal optic that can operate independent of the missile system. In Iraq and Afghanistan, we would often carry at least one Javelin on missions, not because we expected to encounter any al-Qaeda tanks, but because the CLU was such an effective tool. We’d use it to watch road intersections and make sure no one was laying down IEDs. The Javelin has a range in excess of a mile, and the CLU is effective at that distance and beyond.

I asked Jed at what ranges they were engaging the Russians. “Typically, the Ukrainians would wait and ambush them pretty close.” When I asked how close, he answered, “Sometimes scary close.” He described one Ukrainian, a soldier he and a few other English speakers had nicknamed “Maniac” because of the risks he’d take engaging Russian armor. “Maniac was the nicest guy, totally mild-mannered. Then in a fight, the guy turned into a psycho, brave as hell. And then after a fight, he’d go right back to being this nice, mild-mannered guy.”

I wasn’t in a position to verify anything Jed told me, but he showed me a video he’d taken of himself in a trench, and based on that and details he provided about his time in the Marines, his story seemed credible. The longer we talked, the more the conversation veered away from the tangible, technical variables of Ukraine’s military capacity and toward the psychology of Ukraine’s military. Napoleon, who fought many battles in this part of the world, observed that “the moral is to the physical as three is to one.” I was thinking of this maxim as Jed and I finished our tea.

In Ukraine—at least in this first chapter of the war—Napoleon’s words have held true, proving in many ways decisive. In my earlier conversation with Zagorodnyuk, as he and I went through the many reforms and technologies that had given the Ukrainian military its edge, he was quick to point out the one variable he believed trumped all others. “Our motivation—it is the most important factor, more important than anything. We’re fighting for the lives of our families, for our people, and for our homes. The Russians don’t have any of that, and there’s nowhere they can go to get it.”









						Ukraine’s Three-to-One Advantage
					

It’s not technology or tactics that has given Ukrainian fighters their greatest edge.




					www.theatlantic.com


----------



## MilEME09

'Every flight is a fight': Ukrainian pilots on what it's like to take on Russians and win
					

Dogfights were supposed to have been consigned to history but in this war, outnumbered Ukraine jets have had to engage with Russian fighters




					nationalpost.com
				




Farmers are now on the counter attack too


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506536789082877957


----------



## The Bread Guy

A look at what peacekeeping might look like








						A Tentative First Look at Options for Peace Operations in Ukraine
					

With the war in Ukraine raging, and no sign of an exit in view, a Polish peacekeeping proposal is unlikely to gather steam. But it is not too early for policymakers to start thinking about what tasks a future peace operation might undertake.




					www.crisisgroup.org


----------



## Quirky

MilEME09 said:


> Not independently verified but wow
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Exclusive: U.S. assesses up to 60% failure rate for some Russian missiles, officials say
> 
> 
> The United States assesses that Russia is suffering failure rates as high as 60% for some of the precision-guided missiles it is using to attack Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of the intelligence told Reuters.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com



Dogfights are up because missiles don’t work, therefore I’d question the serviceability of the radar and weapon systems on the fighters. 

Which begs the question of how accurate will their ICBMs and other nuclear weapons will be.


----------



## Kirkhill

Quirky said:


> Dogfights are up because missiles don’t work, therefore I’d question the serviceability of the radar and weapon systems on the fighters.
> 
> Which begs the question of how accurate will their ICBMs and other nuclear weapons will be.



Does it really matter how accurate they are?


----------



## OldSolduer

Quirky said:


> how accurate will their ICBMs and other nuclear weapons will be.


I don't really want to find out.


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> 'Every flight is a fight': Ukrainian pilots on what it's like to take on Russians and win
> 
> 
> Dogfights were supposed to have been consigned to history but in this war, outnumbered Ukraine jets have had to engage with Russian fighters
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nationalpost.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Farmers are now on the counter attack too
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506536789082877957


----------



## The Bread Guy

What a shock to RUS state media - Brit troops have helped train UKR ones! 








						Sputnik Finds Documents on UK Training Ukrainian Soldiers for Fighting in Donbass
					

VOLNOVAKHA, Donetsk Region (Sputnik) - The Royal Tank Regiment of the United Kingdom, the oldest tank unit in the world, took part in training of Ukrainian soldiers who fought in Donbass, according to a document obtained by Sputnik.




					sputniknews.com


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> What a shock to RUS state media - Brit troops have helped train UKR ones!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sputnik Finds Documents on UK Training Ukrainian Soldiers for Fighting in Donbass
> 
> 
> VOLNOVAKHA, Donetsk Region (Sputnik) - The Royal Tank Regiment of the United Kingdom, the oldest tank unit in the world, took part in training of Ukrainian soldiers who fought in Donbass, according to a document obtained by Sputnik.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> sputniknews.com


And I thought CBC had bad reporters


----------



## AmmoTech90

Kirkhill said:


> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tn0thd


I effing hate moving Russian ammo boxes.  Never mind needing a can opener to get to the SAA!


----------



## daftandbarmy

The Bread Guy said:


> What a shock to RUS state media - Brit troops have helped train UKR ones!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sputnik Finds Documents on UK Training Ukrainian Soldiers for Fighting in Donbass
> 
> 
> VOLNOVAKHA, Donetsk Region (Sputnik) - The Royal Tank Regiment of the United Kingdom, the oldest tank unit in the world, took part in training of Ukrainian soldiers who fought in Donbass, according to a document obtained by Sputnik.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> sputniknews.com



Oh, great, now the RTR will go banging on about being recognized by the enemy as being the 'oldest tank regiment in the world'.

Which is kind of like being the 'oldest Parachute Regiment' in the world


----------



## TacticalTea

daftandbarmy said:


> Oh, great, now the RTR will go banging on about being recognized by the enemy as being the 'oldest tank regiment in the world'.
> 
> Which is kind of like being the 'oldest Parachute Regiment' in the world


A century or two from now some boys and girls'll be so proud to serve in the oldest Drone Squadron in the world!


----------



## Remius

TacticalTea said:


> A century or two from now some boys and girls'll be so proud to serve in the oldest Drone Squadron in the world!


Doubtful.  It will be some sentient computer server.


----------



## Furniture

Remius said:


> Doubtful.  It will be some sentient computer server.


That's how the Reapers likely started. 

Nobody touch any weird glowing columns....


----------



## YZT580

Quirky said:


> Dogfights are up because missiles don’t work, therefore I’d question the serviceability of the radar and weapon systems on the fighters.
> 
> Which begs the question of how accurate will their ICBMs and other nuclear weapons will be.


how accurate do they have to be?  with nuclear you only have to be close.  One of the lessons out of this war has got to be the requirement for maintenance: those dirty jobs that no one wants but just might save your ass.  Another is "never accept the lowest bid"  I'm betting that in 10 years every Russian vehicle will be running on Michelins.


----------



## Altair

YZT580 said:


> how accurate do they have to be?  with nuclear you only have to be close.  One of the lessons out of this war has got to be the requirement for maintenance: those dirty jobs that no one wants but just might save your ass.  Another is "never accept the lowest bid"  I'm betting that in 10 years every Russian vehicle will be running on Michelins.


Can...Michelin sell to Russia?


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> Can...Michelin sell to Russia?


If they could, could Russia afford them


----------



## Blackadder1916

Altair said:


> Can...Michelin sell to Russia?





KevinB said:


> If they could, could Russia afford them



They already have a plant in Russia.









						Supply hurdles bring Michelin's Russian operations to a halt
					

French tyre maker Michelin is suspending its industrial activity in Russia and exports to the country due to supply difficulties following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.




					www.reuters.com
				





> March 15 (Reuters) - French tyre maker Michelin is suspending its industrial activity in Russia and exports to the country due to supply difficulties following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.
> 
> In 2004, Michelin became the first international tyre company to open its own production in Russia, with sales in the country currently representing 2% of the group's total and 1% of its global passenger car tyre production, Michelin said in a statement.
> 
> The group's only plant in Russia, Davydovo, repairs truck tyres and produces up to 2 million new car tyres per year, mainly for the Russian market and some Northern European countries.
> 
> "The plant was already working at a very low level since several days. There is a lot of supply difficulties - which means we have disruption of financial flows, and there's a problem of currency instability," the company's spokesperson told Reuters.
> 
> 
> Michelin was looking for alternative supply sources in Asia and the Middle East, the spokesperson said, adding the group would continue to pay the wages of the more than 1,000 people it employs in Russia, including 750 at the Davydovo plant.
> 
> It had stopped sales of plane tyres and mining tyres following U.S. sanctions, before halting exports completely on Tuesday.


----------



## Haggis

Kirkhill said:


> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tn0thd


Powered material handling equipment with any solid state parts won't work after the EMP. The Russians know this and it's built into their logistic doctrine. Time is on their side.


----------



## Zipperhead99

Some analysis from The War Zone









						Russia Has Already Lost
					

There is no clear path to a positive outcome for Russia in Ukraine. It could win every future battle, but it has already lost.




					www.thedrive.com


----------



## Zipperhead99

However, NATO has not stated what exactly the support that would be, but it better be more than just thoughts and prayers









						NATO members to pledge support for Ukraine against potential chem-bio attacks
					

The support is meant to protect the alliance’s own member nations, who would also suffer from contamination if Russia used a chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) weapon against Ukraine.




					www.defensenews.com


----------



## Dana381

YZT580 said:


> how accurate do they have to be?  with nuclear you only have to be close.  One of the lessons out of this war has got to be the requirement for maintenance: those dirty jobs that no one wants but just might save your ass.  Another is "never accept the lowest bid"  I'm betting that in 10 years every Russian vehicle will be running on Michelins.



Chinese trucks are likely getting new tires as we speak. Some Chinese tires are decent others are shit. Aeolous tires do well. No where near a Michelin but they are decent.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Russian mine clearing on the coastline


----------



## FJAG

> Ukraine war: Huge Russian ship destroyed by Kyiv's navy
> 
> 
> Flames and thick black smoke was seen rising over the port of Berdyansk, in southern Ukraine, as Kyiv's navy said it had destroyed a Russian ship using the dock to unload tanks.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.dailymail.co.uk





> Ukraine destroys Russian landing ship after state media revealed its location with propaganda footage: Huge fireball rises over port that had been taken by Putin's forces​
> *Ball of flames and smoke seen rising from Berdyansk, a Ukrainian port under the control of Russian forces *
> *Kyiv's navy claimed to have hit and destroyed the Orsk, a 370ft Alligator-class Russian landing ship  *
> *If confirmed, it would be the largest vessel that Ukraine has struck and another embarrassing loss for Putin *
> *Russian state media revealed the ship's location just days earlier, showing it unloading armoured vehicles*



🍻


----------



## TacticalTea

FJAG said:


> 🍻


The other ship seen departing ablaze has then been observed steering in circles just off the coast, much like the Bismarck was before it finally met its end. So high likelihood of two ships lost as a result of this attack.


----------



## Blackadder1916

Some perspective for the viewing public.


----------



## MilEME09

FJAG said:


> 🍻


British intelligence has confirmed Ukraine did do it, but weapon system unknown. Reportedly it was fully loaded with 20 tanks 40+ APCs and 400 personal. Fire was pretty bad on the second ship, it may be a write off too, massive loss for the Black sea fleet.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

ueo said:


> Slightly off point but I wonder why UAF have not nailed some of the targets flopping around the Black Sea. Lack of ordinance? Seems that most NATO countries have some form of antiship missle just begging for employment. Just send a couple along, sink a few and watch Vlad reconsider. At least it would build his stress levels up a great deal.



Those RFN vessels had some AD capability stand alone;  I’d would also wager they are also in/under a AD “dome” from other assets.


----------



## daftandbarmy

I wonder if Logistik Unicorp delivers to Lviv...

Canadian troops ordered to stay away as foreign fighters flock to Ukraine​ 
OTTAWA — Members of the Canadian Armed Forces have been banned from joining the thousands of foreigners who have flocked to Ukraine in recent weeks to help fight Russia’s invasion.

Vice-chief of the defence staff Lt.-Gen. Frances Allen told the House of Commons defence committee on Wednesday that the order came from Gen. Wayne Eyre, chief of the defence staff and it applies to both full-time service members and part-time reservists.

“So for current CAF members, they are not permitted to be in the area, even if they were to be on leave,” Allen told the committee as she appeared alongside Defence Minister Anita Anand. The only exception is if their presence in Ukraine is specifically approved by Eyre, Allen added. She did not indicate whether any Canadian troops are currently in Ukraine.









						Canadian troops ordered to stay away as foreign fighters flock to Ukraine
					






					www.timescolonist.com


----------



## Eye In The Sky

TacticalTea said:


> The other ship seen departing ablaze has then been observed steering in circles just off the coast, much like the Bismarck was before it finally met its end. So high likelihood of two ships lost as a result of this attack.



I didn’t see one ablaze;  one of the Rop’s was damaged and steaming in circles?


----------



## TacticalTea

daftandbarmy said:


> I wonder if Logistik Unicorp delivers to Lviv...
> 
> Canadian troops ordered to stay away as foreign fighters flock to Ukraine​
> OTTAWA — Members of the Canadian Armed Forces have been banned from joining the thousands of foreigners who have flocked to Ukraine in recent weeks to help fight Russia’s invasion.
> 
> Vice-chief of the defence staff Lt.-Gen. Frances Allen told the House of Commons defence committee on Wednesday that the order came from Gen. Wayne Eyre, chief of the defence staff and it applies to both full-time service members and part-time reservists.
> 
> “So for current CAF members, they are not permitted to be in the area, even if they were to be on leave,” Allen told the committee as she appeared alongside Defence Minister Anita Anand. The only exception is if their presence in Ukraine is specifically approved by Eyre, Allen added. She did not indicate whether any Canadian troops are currently in Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canadian troops ordered to stay away as foreign fighters flock to Ukraine
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.timescolonist.com


I haven't seen any email about this or anything promulgated that would've showed up on the CAF app...


Eye In The Sky said:


> I didn’t see one ablaze;  one of the Rop’s was damaged and steaming in circles?


Yep, you can go back a few pages I think someone posted a pic of it on fire. I'll try to find the sat image of it going round in circles


----------



## TacticalTea

Eye In The Sky said:


> I didn’t see one ablaze;  one of the Rop’s was damaged and steaming in circles?




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506996489205297158
Here you can see its spiraling wake in the zoomed in picture.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Today's UKR mil int tote board


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507248134879121408


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR mil int says RUS may be having military cashflow issues (Google English from Ukrainian)


> After the promised payments to the military of the occupying army, the Russian military had problems with funding. As it turned out, the payment of these costs in the budget is not provided in any way. And given the unsatisfactory state of the financial system of the Russian Federation due to the imposed sanctions, it is impossible to find additional funds in the budget.
> 
> In particular, in the temporarily occupied Crimea, after the payment of "business trips" to those who took part in the war against Ukraine, the available limit of funds of military units in February was completely exhausted. There is no funding for any payments for March.
> 
> The situation is similar with the payment of Russian mercenaries' participation in the war. Among them, cases of refusal to leave the territory of Ukraine are becoming more frequent. The reason is non-fulfillment of the terms of the concluded contracts. The militants do not receive funds for participation in hostilities, compensation for injuries and promised "social guarantees".


Also, some RUS National Guardsmen have said "uh, no thanks" to not-a-war (RUS independent media)








						12 National Guards Appeal Dismissal For Refusing To Invade Ukraine - The Moscow Times
					

12 National guards who were dismissed for refusing to go to war in Ukraine are appealing the decision in an attempt to get reinstated, reported Telegram channel SOTA.




					www.themoscowtimes.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

If you're a fan of the Institute for the Study of War's mapping, here's an animated version showing the progression of a month's worth of maps or so


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507312164125745157


----------



## Remius

The Bread Guy said:


> UKR mil int says RUS may be having military cashflow issues (Google English from Ukrainian)
> 
> Also, some RUS National Guardsmen have said "uh, no thanks" to not-a-war (RUS independent media)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 12 National Guards Appeal Dismissal For Refusing To Invade Ukraine - The Moscow Times
> 
> 
> 12 National guards who were dismissed for refusing to go to war in Ukraine are appealing the decision in an attempt to get reinstated, reported Telegram channel SOTA.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.themoscowtimes.com


The Russians are too proud to worry about pay.  Don’t you know?  They have an annual military parade.


----------



## YZT580

Dana381 said:


> Chinese trucks are likely getting new tires as we speak. Some Chinese tires are decent others are shit. Aeolous tires do well. No where near a Michelin but they are decent.


Did the Chinese even use their own lowest bid tires or did they know better


----------



## daftandbarmy

See what happens when you let them off the leash?





__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507047027695398912


----------



## The Bread Guy

YZT580 said:


> Did the Chinese even use their own lowest bid tires or did they know better


Within a planned economy like that, based on the old USSR, I suspect there's less "lowest bidder giving bare minimum" as much as "we say it's standard x because it's what they want, but it's really standard y because we siphoned off some money for ... personal incidentals and contingency."  Although those could also be 2 circles in a Venn diagram, too - and Chinese contract oversight would be mighty harsh if that happened, too.


----------



## TheProfessional

daftandbarmy said:


> See what happens when you let them off the leash?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507047027695398912


How the hell did that happen?


----------



## MilEME09

TheProfessional said:


> How the hell did that happen?


Fell off the bridge


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> Fell off the bridge


I think you misspelled ‘scaffolding’ MilEME09? 😉


----------



## MilEME09

Good2Golf said:


> I think you misspelled ‘scaffolding’ MilEME09? 😉


Russian engineers have shown to not be the best


----------



## The Bread Guy

Hey, welcome to Ukraine, buddy - let's chat ....








						Ukraine captures top Russian electronic warfare officer
					

Lieutenant colonel likely to yield vital intelligence on Russian soldiers' ability to jam and intercept signals




					www.thenationalnews.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Within a planned economy like that, based on the old USSR, I suspect there's less "lowest bidder giving bare minimum" as much as "we say it's standard x because it's what they want, but it's really standard y because we siphoned off some money for ... personal incidentals and contingency."  Although those could also be 2 circles in a Venn diagram, too - and Chinese contract oversight would be mighty harsh if that happened, too.


*Off topic* - But I want to explain some of the thinking/structure under Communism and the years just after it. 

Let me share a story from my time working in the Czech Republic just after I got there in 1995, 5yrs after democracy returned to that part of the world and working in a former planned communist economy that was struggling to adapt to a new world. 

The facility that I worked at was one of those 'old school' Communist facilities that tried to be all encompassing - it had a hotel (about 100 rooms), a movie theatre, a full size cafeteria/restaurant, a pub, a PX, a full gymnasium, weight room, offices and classrooms all in 1 place. When it was turned over to the non-profit organization, a western styled management training/consulting facility, that was setup in 1990 by USAID, CIDA and the Czech Ministries of Industry/Finance, one of the 'rules' was that none of the original staff could be 'let go' unless for theft or something similar, no layoffs in other words.

Shortly after I started working there I began to notice a few things that I thought was 'odd', like the fact that light bulbs that had burnt out were never really replaced with new ones. Days/weeks would go by and I'd still see the same burnt out light bulbs in the cafeteria over lunch, in my office, in the hallways, in the pub, gym, everywhere.  So, I had a chat with the CEO (a fellow CDN) about this after work one day and he said, 'go ahead and figure this out if you want to take it on'.  Off I went to talk with an older Czech woman who had been there for about 2yrs and I thought had a reputation as a 'fixer' and embodied the 'new' way of thinking. After a brief chat, she said, 'Ok, I understand why you want these burnt light bulbs changed, lets go and talk with 'Pani Sedlack...', she's the head of maintenance. 

Down we trundled to the first basement, as the main building of the facility had 3 levels of basements, the lowest level being in fact a bomb-shelter, and into Pani Sedlack.... office.  As my Czech co-worker translated my English into Czech (and me not really helping by speaking in Polish from time to time), Pani Sedlack began to understand why we were there.  She stood up, went into a large cabinet and picked up a large ledger and we left her office.  Down the hallway and into another room where she picked up a new light bulb box and then finally back up to the main level we went in search of a burnt out light bulb.  

We didn't have far to go and voila, burnt out light bulb in the ceiling above.  Pani Sedlack.... started talking in Czech to my co-worker, opened the giant ledger and started flipping pages until she found what she was looking for. Pointing to some lines in the ledger and to the light above, she started to explain the process that had been in place over since the facility was built, decades earlier. My co-worker explained that every time a light bulb was changed, the location, bulb type and date was entered in the ledger - what then occurred was referencing the new light bulb packaging for the information on how many hours of use the light bulb was good for.  This information was then calculated into a date, based on how many hours a day that the light bulb was thought to be in use and that date was then added in the ledger next to the date that the light bulb was replaced.  This new date was then the date when a new light bulb should be installed, regardless if the light bulb was still working....  I was in shock.  "Are you telling me that you only replace a light bulb based on the date(s) in this ledger? What if the light is burnt out before the date in the ledger?"  Pani Sedlack..... shook her head, 'Ne'.  I asked why, 'Proc?'.  Pani Sedlack.... started speaking in Czech quickly to my co-worker and she started translating.  "You have to understand, the light bulb comes from a Czech company (Tesla Lighting) and they tells us right on the box that the bulb is good for XXXX hours.  In the past, if we replaced a burnt light bulb before its 'due date', we would then be questioning the quality of the work of our Czech Socialist brothers and that they were not fulfilling their part of the 5yr plan in producing quality products."  Stupidly I asked the question, "What if the light bulb is still working when the 'end date' comes?" Pani Sedlack.... said they would still replace it with a new bulb and throw out the working bulb, but in their next order to Tesla Lighting they would inform them of how good the quality of their products were!

Needless to say I was eventually able to get them to start replacing light bulbs after they burnt out but it took a few more meetings and the getting of the CEO to weigh in and 'decree' it to be so.

I'm convinced that this train of rigid thinking is still in places throughout most countries in the former SU (and RA) and probably in some isolated pockets in rural communities in the Warsaw Pact countries.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> *Off topic* - But I want to explain some of the thinking/structure under Communism and the years just after it.
> 
> Let me share a story from my time working in the Czech Republic just after I got there in 1995, 5yrs after democracy returned to that part of the world and working in a former planned communist economy that was struggling to adapt to a new world ...


Thanks for the  granular eye-witness version - very interesting.


----------



## Remius

Czech_pivo said:


> *Off topic* - But I want to explain some of the thinking/structure under Communism and the years just after it.
> 
> Let me share a story from my time working in the Czech Republic just after I got there in 1995, 5yrs after democracy returned to that part of the world and working in a former planned communist economy that was struggling to adapt to a new world.
> 
> The facility that I worked at was one of those 'old school' Communist facilities that tried to be all encompassing - it had a hotel (about 100 rooms), a movie theatre, a full size cafeteria/restaurant, a pub, a PX, a full gymnasium, weight room, offices and classrooms all in 1 place. When it was turned over to the non-profit organization, a western styled management training/consulting facility, that was setup in 1990 by USAID, CIDA and the Czech Ministries of Industry/Finance, one of the 'rules' was that none of the original staff could be 'let go' unless for theft or something similar, no layoffs in other words.
> 
> Shortly after I started working there I began to notice a few things that I thought was 'odd', like the fact that light bulbs that had burnt out were never really replaced with new ones. Days/weeks would go by and I'd still see the same burnt out light bulbs in the cafeteria over lunch, in my office, in the hallways, in the pub, gym, everywhere.  So, I had a chat with the CEO (a fellow CDN) about this after work one day and he said, 'go ahead and figure this out if you want to take it on'.  Off I went to talk with an older Czech woman who had been there for about 2yrs and I thought had a reputation as a 'fixer' and embodied the 'new' way of thinking. After a brief chat, she said, 'Ok, I understand why you want these burnt light bulbs changed, lets go and talk with 'Pani Sedlack...', she's the head of maintenance.
> 
> Down we trundled to the first basement, as the main building of the facility had 3 levels of basements, the lowest level being in fact a bomb-shelter, and into Pani Sedlack.... office.  As my Czech co-worker translated my English into Czech (and me not really helping by speaking in Polish from time to time), Pani Sedlack began to understand why we were there.  She stood up, went into a large cabinet and picked up a large ledger and we left her office.  Down the hallway and into another room where she picked up a new light bulb box and then finally back up to the main level we went in search of a burnt out light bulb.
> 
> We didn't have far to go and voila, burnt out light bulb in the ceiling above.  Pani Sedlack.... started talking in Czech to my co-worker, opened the giant ledger and started flipping pages until she found what she was looking for. Pointing to some lines in the ledger and to the light above, she started to explain the process that had been in place over since the facility was built, decades earlier. My co-worker explained that every time a light bulb was changed, the location, bulb type and date was entered in the ledger - what then occurred was referencing the new light bulb packaging for the information on how many hours of use the light bulb was good for.  This information was then calculated into a date, based on how many hours a day that the light bulb was thought to be in use and that date was then added in the ledger next to the date that the light bulb was replaced.  This new date was then the date when a new light bulb should be installed, regardless if the light bulb was still working....  I was in shock.  "Are you telling me that you only replace a light bulb based on the date(s) in this ledger? What if the light is burnt out before the date in the ledger?"  Pani Sedlack..... shook her head, 'Ne'.  I asked why, 'Proc?'.  Pani Sedlack.... started speaking in Czech quickly to my co-worker and she started translating.  "You have to understand, the light bulb comes from a Czech company (Tesla Lighting) and they tells us right on the box that the bulb is good for XXXX hours.  In the past, if we replaced a burnt light bulb before its 'due date', we would then be questioning the quality of the work of our Czech Socialist brothers and that they were not fulfilling their part of the 5yr plan in producing quality products."  Stupidly I asked the question, "What if the light bulb is still working when the 'end date' comes?" Pani Sedlack.... said they would still replace it with a new bulb and throw out the working bulb, but in their next order to Tesla Lighting they would inform them of how good the quality of their products were!
> 
> Needless to say I was eventually able to get them to start replacing light bulbs after they burnt out but it took a few more meetings and the getting of the CEO to weigh in and 'decree' it to be so.
> 
> I'm convinced that this train of rigid thinking is still in places throughout most countries in the former SU (and RA) and probably in some isolated pockets in rural communities in the Warsaw Pact countries.


This sort of story puts a lot of the “stories” seemingly coming out of the FSB about how planners for this special operation were not allowed to come up with contingencies if the plan failed because the plan was not going to fail and planning for failure was not acceptable.


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

I had to read that story a second time just to make sure it actually sunk in.......definetaly a loss for words.


----------



## MilEME09

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> I had to read that story a second time just to make sure it actually sunk in.......definetaly a loss for words.


Explains Russian tires.......


----------



## Quirky

Czech_pivo said:


> we would then be questioning the quality of the work of our Czech Socialist brothers



It sounds like the western world is indirectly heading in that way, we don't want to offend anyone and question their competence.


----------



## MilEME09

Quirky said:


> It sounds like the western world is indirectly heading in that way, we don't want to offend anyone and question their competence.


Just in time delivery is our doom, I have clients waiting 8 months for new gaskets for refrigerators, 13 month wait for a new panini press to replace one with a cracked plate. Things that could effect food safety, but the warehouse only keeps like 2 in stock, and now they have none. We did this to our selves.


----------



## TacticalTea

Insightful story, Czech! That's what I appreciates abouts you

LGen Leslie's take, from yesterday.:


----------



## Skysix

Blackadder1916 said:


> Some perspective for the viewing public.


Thanks for an excellent post!


----------



## dapaterson

Czech_pivo said:


> *Off topic* - But I want to explain some of the thinking/structure under Communism and the years just after it.
> 
> Let me share a story from my time working in the Czech Republic just after I got there in 1995, 5yrs after democracy returned to that part of the world and working in a former planned communist economy that was struggling to adapt to a new world.
> 
> The facility that I worked at was one of those 'old school' Communist facilities that tried to be all encompassing - it had a hotel (about 100 rooms), a movie theatre, a full size cafeteria/restaurant, a pub, a PX, a full gymnasium, weight room, offices and classrooms all in 1 place. When it was turned over to the non-profit organization, a western styled management training/consulting facility, that was setup in 1990 by USAID, CIDA and the Czech Ministries of Industry/Finance, one of the 'rules' was that none of the original staff could be 'let go' unless for theft or something similar, no layoffs in other words.
> 
> Shortly after I started working there I began to notice a few things that I thought was 'odd', like the fact that light bulbs that had burnt out were never really replaced with new ones. Days/weeks would go by and I'd still see the same burnt out light bulbs in the cafeteria over lunch, in my office, in the hallways, in the pub, gym, everywhere.  So, I had a chat with the CEO (a fellow CDN) about this after work one day and he said, 'go ahead and figure this out if you want to take it on'.  Off I went to talk with an older Czech woman who had been there for about 2yrs and I thought had a reputation as a 'fixer' and embodied the 'new' way of thinking. After a brief chat, she said, 'Ok, I understand why you want these burnt light bulbs changed, lets go and talk with 'Pani Sedlack...', she's the head of maintenance.
> 
> Down we trundled to the first basement, as the main building of the facility had 3 levels of basements, the lowest level being in fact a bomb-shelter, and into Pani Sedlack.... office.  As my Czech co-worker translated my English into Czech (and me not really helping by speaking in Polish from time to time), Pani Sedlack began to understand why we were there.  She stood up, went into a large cabinet and picked up a large ledger and we left her office.  Down the hallway and into another room where she picked up a new light bulb box and then finally back up to the main level we went in search of a burnt out light bulb.
> 
> We didn't have far to go and voila, burnt out light bulb in the ceiling above.  Pani Sedlack.... started talking in Czech to my co-worker, opened the giant ledger and started flipping pages until she found what she was looking for. Pointing to some lines in the ledger and to the light above, she started to explain the process that had been in place over since the facility was built, decades earlier. My co-worker explained that every time a light bulb was changed, the location, bulb type and date was entered in the ledger - what then occurred was referencing the new light bulb packaging for the information on how many hours of use the light bulb was good for.  This information was then calculated into a date, based on how many hours a day that the light bulb was thought to be in use and that date was then added in the ledger next to the date that the light bulb was replaced.  This new date was then the date when a new light bulb should be installed, regardless if the light bulb was still working....  I was in shock.  "Are you telling me that you only replace a light bulb based on the date(s) in this ledger? What if the light is burnt out before the date in the ledger?"  Pani Sedlack..... shook her head, 'Ne'.  I asked why, 'Proc?'.  Pani Sedlack.... started speaking in Czech quickly to my co-worker and she started translating.  "You have to understand, the light bulb comes from a Czech company (Tesla Lighting) and they tells us right on the box that the bulb is good for XXXX hours.  In the past, if we replaced a burnt light bulb before its 'due date', we would then be questioning the quality of the work of our Czech Socialist brothers and that they were not fulfilling their part of the 5yr plan in producing quality products."  Stupidly I asked the question, "What if the light bulb is still working when the 'end date' comes?" Pani Sedlack.... said they would still replace it with a new bulb and throw out the working bulb, but in their next order to Tesla Lighting they would inform them of how good the quality of their products were!
> 
> Needless to say I was eventually able to get them to start replacing light bulbs after they burnt out but it took a few more meetings and the getting of the CEO to weigh in and 'decree' it to be so.
> 
> I'm convinced that this train of rigid thinking is still in places throughout most countries in the former SU (and RA) and probably in some isolated pockets in rural communities in the Warsaw Pact countries.


And today that woman is a LCMM in ADM Mat.


----------



## TheProfessional

Russian troops reportedly attack commanding officer after heavy losses:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...live-updates/#link-5KM2VKL3OVFOJDFCIDT4HOD6HQ


----------



## TacticalTea

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507362085860261892
''Lieutenant-General'' (OF-7, NATO MGen equivalent), Commander 49 CAA


----------



## Dana381

Czech_pivo said:


> "You have to understand, the light bulb comes from a Czech company (Tesla Lighting) and they tells us right on the box that the bulb is good for XXXX hours.  In the past, if we replaced a burnt light bulb before its 'due date', we would then be questioning the quality of the work of our Czech Socialist brothers and that they were not fulfilling their part of the 5yr plan in producing quality products."



Thanks for the insight, That is similar to what I proposed earlier in this post. However I was postulating based on stories I had heard and did not have any hard evidence.









						Ukraine - Superthread
					

It would seem that the logistical issues rest higher than tactical-level LogOs.  Putin fires General Gerasimov, Russia’s Chief of the General Staff...




					army.ca
				





Dana381 said:


> In a totally unrelated podcast the other day two intellectuals were discussing that people can't lie without believing the lie at least in part. When people tell a lie they know to be false their belief actually changes toward the lie.
> 
> Also in a culture that is ruled by fear more than respect people lie often. I seen this played out while watching Hells Kitchen. People that normally don't lie start to lie during the dinner service when the fear starts to kick in.
> 
> It sounds like both of these phenomenon are at play here. Russian officials began believing the lies they were releasing to the media and their fear of their superiors and Putin had them lying up the command chain. Everyone begins to believe these lies and plans the invasion based on these beliefs.
> 
> Anyone in the ranks that would dare to suggest the Ukrainians may be capable fighters or that supplies should be brought up for a longer war would be considered crazy or not having faith in the Russian forces and he would risk jail or execution for such dissension. Attitudes like that rise from needing to support the lies one is telling. Eg. If I say it will be easy to take Ukraine but agree to extra supplies I risk being outed as a liar. So I must shut you down quickly to save my own neck.
> 
> This shows why ruling with fear vs ruling with respect is so bad.



If you take the lightbulb mentality to war planners, anyone who says that the war will take more than two days is questioning the ability of the Russian soldiers and therefore the ones who commanded and/or trained them. Add in a culture where failure will get you (and maybe your family) executed and officers are forced to overstate the rediness of their troops and you end up with the totally ineffectual army we are seeing from Russia.

This is why I believe participation tropheys are so dangerous. If there isn't reward for sucess than people will not strive for sucess. If we lie to people and say that they are good at something when they are not and they believe it then we are hurting them badly. Better to be disapointed in ones self then disillusioned. In cases like this it will kill you.


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

I think they are all in the Ukraine Witness Protection Program....


----------



## Dana381

YZT580 said:


> Did the Chinese even use their own lowest bid tires or did they know better


Who knows, Maybe they purposly sold russia shit tires in case they ever have to fight them?


----------



## Kirkhill

Russia limiting its war aims?

Claiming that it has written down the Ukrainian Army (ie eliminated the threat to Moscow from the Ukrainian Nazis)

And that it is in the process of liberating the Donbas.

And if the Chechens can eliminate Azov that's a win as well.









						Ukrainian forces launch counter-offensive in Russian-controlled Kherson
					

Ukrainian forces have launched a counter-offensive in Kherson, the only major city currently under the control of Russian troops.




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				






> Russia will now focus its main war effort on the "complete liberation" of the eastern Donbas region, the chief of the Russian army has said.
> 
> Sergei Rudskoi, the head of the Russian General Staff's Main Operational Directorate, said: "The main objectives of the first stage of the operation have generally been accomplished.
> 
> "The combat potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been considerably reduced, which... makes it possible to focus our core efforts on achieving the main goal, the liberation of Donbas."
> 
> The Russian defence ministry claimed Kremlin-backed separatists now control 93 per cent of the Luhansk region and 54 per cent of the Donetsk region - the two areas that jointly make up the Donbas.
> 
> However, the figures have not been confirmed by Ukrainian or Western officials.
> 
> The ministry also said it had not ruled out storming Ukrainian cities that it has blockaded, and warned the West that any attempts to close the airspace over Ukraine – as consistently requested by President Zelensky – would be met with an "immediate" reaction.



That might suggest that the Easterners west of Kiev will be left to their own devices as Belarus is an unreliable support base and that the remnants of the forces to the east of Kiev will eventually withdraw to reconstitute.

That would make the Donets battle and the effort to reduce the 2014 Line of Contact defences the main effort.

Odessa is gone as a target I guess.  It remains to be seen if Kherson is considered worth defending.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:


> Russia limiting its war aims?
> (...)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian forces launch counter-offensive in Russian-controlled Kherson
> 
> 
> Ukrainian forces have launched a counter-offensive in Kherson, the only major city currently under the control of Russian troops.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.telegraph.co.uk



More from from UKR media on RUS moving the goal posts








						Russian army says will focus on 'liberation' of Donbas - Kyiv Post - Ukraine's Global Voice
					

The Russian army said Friday that the first phase of its military campaign in Ukraine was over and troops would now… - Mar. 25, 2022. By AFP




					www.kyivpost.com
				



For even more details, the attached are virus-scanned PDFs of the text from today's early evening (local time) RUS MoD briefings (official English versions), as well as the newest order out there (in Russian)

#SeizeAndHoldTheCorridor?


----------



## Remius

Kirkhill said:


> Russia limiting its war aims?
> 
> Claiming that it has written down the Ukrainian Army (ie eliminated the threat to Moscow from the Ukrainian Nazis)
> 
> And that it is in the process of liberating the Donbas.
> 
> And if the Chechens can eliminate Azov that's a win as well.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian forces launch counter-offensive in Russian-controlled Kherson
> 
> 
> Ukrainian forces have launched a counter-offensive in Kherson, the only major city currently under the control of Russian troops.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.telegraph.co.uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That might suggest that the Easterners west of Kiev will be left to their own devices as Belarus is an unreliable support base and that the remnants of the forces to the east of Kiev will eventually withdraw to reconstitute.
> 
> That would make the Donets battle and the effort to reduce the 2014 Line of Contact defences the main effort.
> 
> Odessa is gone as a target I guess.  It remains to be seen if Kherson is considered worth defending.


Changing the goal posts is always a good way to achieve the objectives lol

As someone mentioned we can reach 2% of GDP on defence spending by simply reducing GDP…


----------



## Kirkhill

More indications of failing to pay attention to detail


----------



## The Bread Guy

Turkey's President:  (alleged?  reported?) room to move on 4 out of 6 of RUS's demands








						Erdoğan: Ukraine and Russia nearing 'consensus' on 4 of 6 key issues to ending the war
					

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan claimed on Thursday that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy are nearing “consensus” on key issues to resolve the Russia-Ukraine war. Turkey has been hosting diplomatic talks between the nations.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

dapaterson said:


> And today that woman is a LCMM in ADM Mat.


Truth be told - that woman was a card-carrying Communist pre-1989 who routinely reported as those who worked for her.  I found this out months later.  I got to be friends with the much older than me head mechanic of the place, how I'll never know, and over shots of homemade Silovitz in his office he spilled the beans on many of his co-workers over time.  I think that he probably got written up a fair number of times pre-89 and was looking for a bit of payback.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> Truth be told - that woman was a card-carrying Communist pre-1989 who routinely reported as those who worked for her.  I found this out months later.  I got to be friends with the much older than me head mechanic of the place, how I'll never know, and over shots of homemade Silovitz in his office he spilled the beans on many of his co-workers over time.  I think that he probably got written up a fair number of times pre-89 and was looking for a bit of payback.


When someone I know visited Poland to talk to government folks in the early-ish 90's, the polite way of asking, "so, you still here from the Communist days?" was "are you a career public servant?"


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507434999888363528


----------



## rmc_wannabe

The Bread Guy said:


> When someone I know visited Poland to talk to government folks in the early-ish 90's, the polite way of asking, "so, you still here from the Communist days?" was "are you a career public servant?"


When I was in Poland for the first part of Op REASSURANCE (back when we were still "exercising in Europe.... no FSP for you"), we had a fun time working with the civi,  infrastructure supervisor. He apparently had worked at the facility since 1982; long before I was born, and also long before we would ever be considered allies. 

He knew every aspect of the base, every comms closet and termination. He knew where things were buried, where not to go in the Trg Area, and where the Germans had left a bunch of Gas Masks in a bunker. None of it was written down. No diagrams, floor plans, layouts, maps...nothing.

I asked one of our translators why it hadn't been completed. He asked and he was told "If I know where it is, I keep my job. I keep getting paid. No one can get rid of me, unless they want to have a bad day on the range."

I guess knowledge is power in a Communist dictatorship. More shocking were the similarities I noticed with our Public Service afterward.


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507434999888363528


Ask yourself this question, if these guys can't resupply fuel, use MRE's that in some cases are years past their 'best before' dates, (when they supply food at all), steal Ukkie's cell phones so they can communicate, communicate on open frequencies that ham radio operators around the world openly listen on and mock them on and have difficulty in ammo resupply - do you think that they'll actually be able to supply all their troops with the necessary meds that they will not in case of a chem attack?


----------



## Remius

Czech_pivo said:


> Ask yourself this question, if these guys can't resupply fuel, use MRE's that in some cases are years past their 'best before' dates, (when they supply food at all), steal Ukkie's cell phones so they can communicate, communicate on open frequencies that ham radio operators around the world openly listen on and mock them on and have difficulty in ammo resupply - do you think that they'll actually be able to supply all their troops with the necessary meds that they will not in case of a chem attack?


They will give them all salt pills and tell them it’s meds.  All good comrade.  You’ll be fine.  It’s just an exercise…


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> ... use MRE's that in some cases are years past their 'best before' dates ...


They always have eBay ....








						Military Russian Army Food Ration Daily Pack MRE Emergency Rations Combat for sale online | eBay
					

Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for Military Russian Army Food Ration Daily Pack MRE Emergency Rations Combat at the best online prices at eBay! Free shipping for many products!



					www.ebay.com
				



... not to mention this guy on Amazon.ca shipping from Russia


			Amazon.ca


----------



## DBNSG

Kirkhill said:


> Russia limiting its war aims?
> 
> Claiming that it has written down the Ukrainian Army (ie eliminated the threat to Moscow from the Ukrainian Nazis)
> 
> And that it is in the process of liberating the Donbas.
> 
> And if the Chechens can eliminate Azov that's a win as well.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian forces launch counter-offensive in Russian-controlled Kherson
> 
> 
> Ukrainian forces have launched a counter-offensive in Kherson, the only major city currently under the control of Russian troops.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.telegraph.co.uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That might suggest that the Easterners west of Kiev will be left to their own devices as Belarus is an unreliable support base and that the remnants of the forces to the east of Kiev will eventually withdraw to reconstitute.
> 
> That would make the Donets battle and the effort to reduce the 2014 Line of Contact defences the main effort.
> 
> Odessa is gone as a target I guess.  It remains to be seen if Kherson is considered worth defendiETHING i





Kirkhill said:


> Russia limiting its war aims?
> 
> Claiming that it has written down the Ukrainian Army (ie eliminated the threat to Moscow from the Ukrainian Nazis)
> 
> And that it is in the process of liberating the Donbas.
> 
> And if the Chechens can eliminate Azov that's a win as well.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian forces launch counter-offensive in Russian-controlled Kherson
> 
> 
> Ukrainian forces have launched a counter-offensive in Kherson, the only major city currently under the control of Russian troops.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.telegraph.co.uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That might suggest that the Easterners west of Kiev will be left to their own devices as Belarus is an unreliable support base and that the remnants of the forces to the east of Kiev will eventually withdraw to reconstitute.
> 
> That would make the Donets battle and the effort to reduce the 2014 Line of Contact defences the main effort.
> 
> Odessa is gone as a target I guess.  It remains to be seen if Kherson is considered worth defending.


I wonder if these new limited War aims has something to do with the upcoming contract changes due on April 1 2022. This forum has educated me on the Russian conscript start date of April 1 and perhaps Russia knows the present workforce is going to melt away April 1. Contract fulfilled and time to find a Ukrainian Farm girl.


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> Ask yourself this question, if these guys can't resupply fuel, use MRE's that in some cases are years past their 'best before' dates, (when they supply food at all), steal Ukkie's cell phones so they can communicate, communicate on open frequencies that ham radio operators around the world openly listen on and mock them on and have difficulty in ammo resupply - do you think that they'll actually be able to supply all their troops with the necessary meds that they will not in case of a chem attack?


Russia is not beneath killing its own troops to achieve an objective


----------



## suffolkowner

Where is the Russian Army?
					






					lindleyfrench.blogspot.com
				




not enough men and all used up and going to be hard to keep things going until May 9th


----------



## KevinB

suffolkowner said:


> Where is the Russian Army?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> lindleyfrench.blogspot.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> not enough men and all used up and going to be hard to keep things going until May 9th


They still have a slew of troops.  They moved 50k or so in to make up for losses.
   They are enrolling contract soldiers by offering to cover any debt that Russians have for a 1 year contract.


----------



## Kirkhill

DBNSG said:


> I wonder if these new limited War aims has something to do with the upcoming contract changes due on April 1 2022. This forum has educated me on the Russian conscript start date of April 1 and perhaps Russia knows the present workforce is going to melt away April 1. Contract fulfilled and time to find a Ukrainian Farm girl.



Does she come with her own tractor?


----------



## Brad Sallows

"From Stavka: Effective 1 Apr, the following CAA become Combined Penal Battalion Armies...."


----------



## OldSolduer

Kirkhill said:


> Does she come with her own tractor?


That reminds me of an old Playboy that was edited as a glorius Soviet publication. The centrefold was a tractor.


----------



## WLSC

KevinB said:


> They still have a slew of troops.  They moved 50k or so in to make up for losses.
> They are enrolling contract soldiers by offering to cover any debt that Russians have for a 1 year contract.


That’s a goood deal 😇.  We could use this one 😂


----------



## Altair

Altair said:


> My wife says the biggest threat to Ukraine now is that their counter attack might be successful enough to take Moscow and force putin to use nukes.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507423600122413076


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507472213880025088


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507407537481650181
In the background you can make out the Ukrainian flag.


----------



## Fishbone Jones

I really wish someone would give some cruise misses to Ukraine. Preprogrammed for the Kremlin, state owned dachas and oligarchs mansions. A few of their ports, drydocks and power distribution wouldn't  hurt either.


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507472213880025088


The guy isn't so out of it that they will use chemical weapons? If so I hope NATO at least takes the gloves off with respect to weapons supplies


----------



## MilEME09

Pentagon confirms the battle for Kherson has begun, its sooner then I thought.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507440439435091970


----------



## The Bread Guy

Lookit what UKR's mil int boss predicted in November of last year .....








						Russia preparing to attack Ukraine by late January: Ukraine defense intelligence agency chief
					

Russia is building toward the ability to carry out an attack on Ukraine, the head of it's defense intelligence agency told Military Times.




					www.militarytimes.com


----------



## Remius

MilEME09 said:


> Pentagon confirms the battle for Kherson has begun, its sooner then I thought.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507440439435091970








If anyone has seen Peacemaker I’m wondering if this will end the same way as this scene.


----------



## The Bread Guy

From Luhansk rebel media (archived link)
The good news from RUS:  lookit all the cool kit we nabbed from the Nazis/Banderists/nationalists that you can now have & use!
The bad news:  #AsIs - "some equipment is in the process of restoration, but most of it is fully operational"


----------



## Skysix

suffolkowner said:


> The guy isn't so out of it that they will use chemical weapons? If so I hope NATO at least takes the gloves off with respect to weapons supplies


More than that. Use of WMD should have an *ACTUAL* NATO response, and that should be STRONGLY signalled just like Putin signalled nukes if NATO troops in Ukraine. The specifics of the response NOT specified, but IMHO should start with turning his Black Sea mansion into a smoking hole in the ground with missiles - minimising harm to innocent Russians and touted as such/warning as the missiles are launched.


----------



## Remius

It is looking more and more like Russia is planning its exit plan.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Remius said:


> It is looking more and more like Russia is planning its exit plan.


From SOME bits of UKR, anyway ....


----------



## Altair

The Bread Guy said:


> From SOME bits of UKR, anyway ....


I think Russia having Crimea plus the two peoples republics in the east while the rest of Ukraine joins the EU is a decent way to end this. 

They leave with no more than they entered the war with, and Ukraine isn't absorbed wholesale by Russia. 

And then a snap vote on NATO membership in 3-4 years.


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tnrs4h



> Russia is assembling 10 new battalion tactical groups to be deployed to the war in Ukraine, a western official said citing intelligence assessments.
> 
> The new reinforcements are being drawn from eastern Russia, parts of Georgia occupied by pro-Russian separatists, and Russia’s Baltic Sea exclave of Kaliningrad, the official said.
> 
> *Battalion tactical groups are the primary organizational structure for Russia’s army, and are typically comprised of about 700 troops plus multiple tanks, artillery and other vehicles.*
> 
> Any additional deployments would come after more than a month of fighting in Ukraine, where Russia’s plan for a swift victory has failed amid tactical missteps, logistical errors and unexpectedly strong Ukrainian resistance.


----------



## Kirkhill

Altair said:


> I think Russia having Crimea plus the two peoples republics in the east while the rest of Ukraine joins the EU is a decent way to end this.
> 
> They leave with no more than they entered the war with, and Ukraine isn't absorbed wholesale by Russia.
> 
> And then a snap vote on NATO membership in 3-4 years.


----------



## Altair

Kirkhill said:


> View attachment 69720


About Ukraine joining NATO?

I hope they would join. Come to Canada and train us on how to get our agricultural special forces division up and running and going through best practices on how to steal russian vehicles.


----------



## Altair

Kirkhill said:


> View attachment 69707
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tnrs4h


No mention of fuel trucks.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502405243916726273


If the Ru


The Bread Guy said:


> They always have eBay ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Military Russian Army Food Ration Daily Pack MRE Emergency Rations Combat for sale online | eBay
> 
> 
> Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for Military Russian Army Food Ration Daily Pack MRE Emergency Rations Combat at the best online prices at eBay! Free shipping for many products!
> 
> 
> 
> www.ebay.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ... not to mention this guy on Amazon.ca shipping from Russia
> 
> 
> Amazon.ca


Or you can check this out: Testing Russian Military MRE (Meal Ready to Eat)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Altair said:


> ... They leave with no more than they entered the war with, and Ukraine isn't absorbed wholesale by Russia ...


Well, according to this ISW map, even if you _just_ look at the southern UKR occupied corridor, can't say I can agree with your bit in yellow ....


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> Well, according to this ISW map, even if you _just_ look at the southern UKR occupied corridor, can't say I can agree with your bit in yellow ....
> View attachment 69723


Thing to keep in mind is Russia doesn't actually occupy everything in red, they don't have the troops to do so. But it is in there influence, that's why Ukraine can hit their rear lines so well


----------



## rmc_wannabe

The Bread Guy said:


> Well, according to this ISW map, even if you _just_ look at the southern UKR occupied corridor, can't say I can agree with your bit in yellow ....
> View attachment 69723


Gaining ground is one thing, holding ground is another completely different ball of wax.

The local population doesn't seem as oppressed as Putin claimed, and the Russians are finding that out first hand. The are having a hell of a time supplying troops at their 3rd Echelon, I cannot fathom the hell the TDF and UA forces would reign between that and the FEOB. 

Even with a peace deal, I see a Ukrainian insurgency happening that will make the Taliban look like Boy Scouts.


----------



## DBNSG

Kirkhill said:


> Does she come with her own tractor?


I imagine Dad will let her borrow his . After he adds to his collection


----------



## Altair

The Bread Guy said:


> Well, according to this ISW map, even if you _just_ look at the southern UKR occupied corridor, can't say I can agree with your bit in yellow ....
> View attachment 69723


Give it a few weeks.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> I think Russia having Crimea plus the two peoples republics in the east while the rest of Ukraine joins the EU is a decent way to end this.
> 
> They leave with no more than they entered the war with, and Ukraine isn't absorbed wholesale by Russia.
> 
> And then a snap vote on NATO membership in 3-4 years.


Russian won’t have anything they had of Ukraine at the end.  Too much blood and treasure has been spilled by Ukrainians to settle for pre most recent invasion Status Quo.  

The big issue is ensuring Ukraine stops at the original territory and doesn’t conduct a special military operation to liberate the Russians from the Kremlin.


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> Russian won’t have anything they had of Ukraine at the end.  Too much blood and treasure has been spilled by Ukrainians to settle for pre most recent invasion Status Quo.
> 
> The big issue is ensuring Ukraine stops at the original territory and doesn’t conduct a special military operation to liberate the Russians from the Kremlin.


I don't think they would go that far, I di think that if any of those filtration camps are just across the border, they will go in to rescue civilians, destroy Russian military targets close to the border, but thats it.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> I don't think they would go that far, I di think that if any of those filtration camps are just across the border, they will go in to rescue civilians, destroy Russian military targets close to the border, but thats it.


If they thought the Russians wouldn’t nuke them or NATO physically stop them, at this point they burn the Kremlin and put Putin’s head on a spike out front to send a message.

All you need to do to see why, is look at what Russia has done to their country.


----------



## YZT580

Altair said:


> I think Russia having Crimea plus the two peoples republics in the east while the rest of Ukraine joins the EU is a decent way to end this.
> 
> They leave with no more than they entered the war with, and Ukraine isn't absorbed wholesale by Russia.
> 
> And then a snap vote on NATO membership in 3-4 years.


Russia should stack their arms and march, not drive out of all of Ukraine; including Crimea and Donbas.  Perhaps if they hadn't spent weeks shelling Mariupol, hospitals, schools, and shopping malls I might have agreed with you but anything else is allowing the bully to win.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Russian won’t have anything they had of Ukraine at the end.  Too much blood and treasure has been spilled by Ukrainians to settle for pre most recent invasion Status Quo.
> 
> The big issue is ensuring Ukraine stops at the original territory and doesn’t conduct a special military operation to liberate the Russians from the Kremlin.


the west if that happens


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> the west if that happens


Russia will go nuclear if there is a threat of no Russia as an end state.  
   It won’t be just Ukrainian targets either.


----------



## Prairie canuck

Ukraine should pull back from the negotiations and let the phone ring for a while.


----------



## Prairie canuck

KevinB said:


> Russian won’t have anything they had of Ukraine at the end.  Too much blood and treasure has been spilled by Ukrainians to settle for pre most recent invasion Status Quo.
> 
> The big issue is ensuring Ukraine stops at the original territory and doesn’t conduct a special military operation to liberate the Russians from the Kremlin.


Don't pull a MacArthur


----------



## KevinB

Eisenhower was right in 1945, we should not have stopped in Berlin. 
MacArthur was right on two fronts, and I agree with him we should have nuked China when they entered Korea.


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> Russia will go nuclear if there is a threat of no Russia as an end state.
> It won’t be just Ukrainian targets either.


i think a lot of Russian commanders would have reservations of using nukes on Russian territory


----------



## Skysix

KevinB said:


> Russian won’t have anything they had of Ukraine at the end.  Too much blood and treasure has been spilled by Ukrainians to settle for pre most recent invasion Status Quo.
> 
> The big issue is ensuring Ukraine stops at the original territory and doesn’t conduct a special military operation to liberate the Russians from the Kremlin.


Or to retrieve the Ukrainian hostages shipped into Russia from the areas the were trying to repopulate with ethnic Russians


----------



## MilEME09

I'm sorry...what? With what forces? Conscripts and reservists? Their reservists make ours look like teir 1 operators...... yes I'm making fun of my self


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507474486907781122


----------



## Kirkhill

Disregard all previous.... Never mind.

2:47 AM



> ' Kherson remains under total Russian control', reports CNN​The city of Kherson remains under total Russian control, four residents of the city have told CNN.
> The claims contrast with earlier media reports citing the Pentagon as saying Ukrainian forces had retaken control of parts of the city.
> "Today _ saw them with their guns at the market, possibly searching vegetables for buying," one resident said to CNN on Friday evening. "They lose only couple of villages, not towns."
> CNN said the assessment that Ukrainian forces had started to reclaim the city was based on information from two US defence officials claiming images and media reports showed the Ukrainian flag draped from city hall.
> _


_









						Vladimir Putin 'cannot remain in power', says Joe Biden
					

US president Joe Biden warned that Vladimir Putin "cannot remain in power" in a rousing speech to crowds in Warsaw.




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				



_


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Someone elsewhere pointed out that Putin is/was hoping to have the war wrapped up by May 9th, Russia's Victory day.


----------



## Altair

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507473089952718851
Dead?


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Taking on Russia at the United Nations, Bob Rae enjoys his finest hour
					

Canada’s ambassador to the United Nations has emerged as one of the Putin regime’s most outspoken critics




					www.theglobeandmail.com
				






Bob Rae's "finest hour" apparently LOL


----------



## Halifax Tar

It's behind a pay wall...


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> Thing to keep in mind is Russia doesn't actually occupy everything in red, they don't have the troops to do so. But it is in there influence, that's why Ukraine can hit their rear lines so well





rmc_wannabe said:


> Gaining ground is one thing, holding ground is another completely different ball of wax.


Very true (although I'd consider the Donetsk and Luhansk statelets occupied since they were in that state before Op Z) - call it "to be taken back" rather than "occupied". 

Once RUS troops are at the edge of the red, though, (esp. if they dig in) unless they decide to pack up and leave, they have to be either 1)  pushed back, or 2) leave on their own accord.  First option ain't happening just yet and ...


Altair said:


> Give it a few weeks.


... I don't know if I'd bet on a when for the second option - although I've been surprised before w/this campaign.

Meanwhile, an interesting tidbit if true, from UKR mil int (Google English translation of article) - seems at least RUS equipment coming from their depots may have had shiny, expensive bits already stolen back home, making them harder to make battle ready ...


> "Deconserved" Russian military equipment completely stolen, the commander of the tank regiment - shot himself​
> March 26, 2022
> 
> The occupiers are trying to recover losses from equipment removed from long-term storage. In particular, at the airfield in the village of Klimove, Bryansk region (35 km from the border of Ukraine), the enemy is deploying a repair and rehabilitation base (RBB). Currently, the enemy RVB is trying to "put into operation" a significant amount of equipment coming from long-term storage facilities. The condition of this equipment is mostly extremely unsatisfactory, which makes its full use impossible.
> 
> At the same time, places are being created for storing equipment that has been disabled on the battlefield.
> 
> In general, the Russian Federation often faces the problem of the impossibility of restoring equipment after "deconservation" from warehouses. Optical devices and electronics containing precious metals were completely stolen from the combat vehicles.
> 
> In particular, in the 4th Panzer Division of the Russian Federation it was found that out of 10 "canned" tanks, only one is in a more or less operational condition. The rest are completely dismantled. Some of them do not even have engines. At present, plans to transfer equipment taken from storage to the front have actually been thwarted.
> 
> According to available information - the commander of the 13th tank regiment of the 4th tank division of the Russian Federation - shot himself.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Halifax Tar said:


> It's behind a pay wall...


If you mean the Globe article, try this link.


----------



## Halifax Tar

The Bread Guy said:


> If you mean the Globe article, try this link.



Merci beaucoup


----------



## The Bread Guy

Halifax Tar said:


> Merci beaucoup


Happy to help get more info into more folks' hands ....

Meanwhile, UKR MoD's morning update points to more RUS HR issues and the equipment problem mentioned by UKR mil int - some snippets


> The occupiers are trying to intensify the activities of sabotage and reconnaissance groups in Kyiv in order to destabilize the socio-political situation, disrupt the system of public and military administration.  This is due to the inability to quickly replenish losses, to carry out rapid build-up (regrouping) and the use of groups of troops to maintain the required pace of hostilities and achieve the ultimate goal of war.  Given the high level of irreversible and sanitary losses of the russian armed forces and the involvement of conscripts in the hostilities, the 2022 spring conscription campaign, which begins on April 1st this year, may be problematic.  In addition, there is a tendency to sharply reduce the number of contractors in relation to conscription. Thus, the deterioration of the social component due to international sanctions and the losses during the war in the coming weeks are likely to exacerbate the problem of staffing the russian army with quality personnel.  In addition еquipment coming from storages and arsenals to occupation units trying to restore combat capability is in poor technical condition due to careless pre-operation and prolonged storage.





> The occupiers continue to take measures to restore the combat capability of their units, replenish ammunition and fuel in order to resume offensive actions. Due to the lack of qualified personnel, the enemy recruits personnel with low moral and personal qualities and persons prone to drug and alcohol abuse when recruiting units that have suffered significant losses during hostilities with units of the defense forces.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest UKR mil int tote board ....

...  these assessments from the UK MoD ...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507598589635223552

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507340768826085429... and the text of this morning's RUS MoD brief in official English (as well as a "no defence money worries - all going as planned" update) attached


----------



## GR66

MilEME09 said:


> i think a lot of Russian commanders would have reservations of using nukes on Russian territory


What makes you think that their nuclear response would be against the forces on their own territory?


----------



## dapaterson

Remember, aim for the turret ring.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507422853368528923


----------



## suffolkowner

OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical)
					

In fairness, the autoloader makes the tank much smaller, and removes the need for a human loader.   Unfortunately, as you can see, it’s also extremely vulnerable.




					nitter.net
				




everytime you see a Russian tank down you can count 3 dead Russians as time goes on the quality of Russian troops can only go down


----------



## Retired AF Guy

rmc_wannabe said:


> Gaining ground is one thing, holding ground is another completely different ball of wax.
> 
> The local population doesn't seem as oppressed as Putin claimed, and the Russians are finding that out first hand. The are having a hell of a time supplying troops at their 3rd Echelon, I cannot fathom the hell the TDF and UA forces would reign between that and the FEOB.
> 
> Even with a peace deal, I see a Ukrainian insurgency happening that will make the Taliban look like Boy Scouts.


FEOB? Sorry not familiar with that one.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Eisenhower was right in 1945, we should not have stopped in Berlin.



Patton certainly felt that way.  Eisenhower, though?  (Could be, but I don't remember reading anything that reflects that.)


----------



## Skysix

dapaterson said:


> Remember, aim for the turret ring.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507422853368528923


Some statistician could calculate the odds of that hapening again I am sure , but it is likely essentially zero.

Great idea for a "Welcome to Ukraine" sign on every road from Russia though after this is over. Along with a small plaque memorial to the 3 or 4 unknown soldiers who died in it.

I am sure there are enough turrets from destroyed Russian tanks in Ukraine to be able to do it. #notPC


----------



## dapaterson

Skysix said:


> Some statistician could calculate the odds of that hapening again I am sure , but it is likely essentially zero.
> 
> Great idea for a "welcome to Ukraine" sign on all the roads into Russia though after this is over





			https://i.pinimg.com/originals/8b/12/fc/8b12fc10cf95283b6d73c8d5b55ae270.jpg


----------



## armrdsoul77

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507473089952718851
> Dead?


----------



## Remius

Skysix said:


> Some statistician could calculate the odds of that hapening again I am sure , but it is likely essentially zero.
> 
> Great idea for a "Welcome to Ukraine" sign on every road from Russia though after this is over. Along with a small plaque memorial to the 3 or 4 unknown soldiers who died in it.
> 
> I am sure there are enough turrets from destroyed Russian tanks in Ukraine to be able to do it. #notPC


They should take all the tank turrets of guns and make a Game of Thrones Throne with them like in the show.  Only turrets I stead of swords.


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507700818245468172
Interesting thread about the reality of the changing geopolitical landscape.  People that t( west may have come sidérée friendly are not as friendly or reliable as they think when it comes to Russia.

India, Israel, Mexico, Hungary…


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507423352943783940
And the Russians showing yet again that they are willing to fight to the last Chechen.



Remius said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507700818245468172
> Interesting thread about the reality of the changing geopolitical landscape.  People that t( west may have come sidérée friendly are not as friendly or reliable as they think when it comes to Russia.
> 
> India, Israel, Mexico, Hungary…



The blocs that are forming because of this conflict are interesting but really we are just seeing in full view for the first time, who butters each other's bread.

You've now got three primary power blocs:

1.  An Anglo-American aligned bloc
2.  A Chinese aligned bloc
3.  A Euro-centric bloc (the weakest of the bunch)

There is also a number of independent actors who lie outside these Blocs:  India, Brazil, Israel, Indonesia, etc.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507473089952718851
> Dead?


Depends how recent this photo attached to this morning's RUS MoD info-machine "we're all good money-wise" statement (links to safe PDF) is ....


----------



## brihard

Had to share this masterful troll edit from Wikipedia. Someone has a sharp wit.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

The Bread Guy said:


> Depends how recent this photo attached to this morning's RUS MoD info-machine "we're all good money-wise" statement (links to safe PDF) is ....
> View attachment 69734


I mean, I'd probably have a heart attack too if something I planned went so far off the rails LOL.


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507423352943783940
> And the Russians showing yet again that they are willing to fight to the last Chechen.
> 
> 
> 
> The blocs that are forming because of this conflict are interesting but really we are just seeing in full view for the first time, who butters each other's bread.
> 
> You've now got three primary power blocs:
> 
> 1.  An Anglo-American aligned bloc
> 2.  A Chinese aligned bloc
> 3.  A Euro-centric bloc (the weakest of the bunch)
> 
> There is also a number of independent actors who lie outside these Blocs:  India, Brazil, Israel, Indonesia, etc.



I think, more than anything else, you are seeing the fracturing and attenuation of blocs with individual nations seeing the opportunity to act independently.  Take Israel for example.  It is moving rapidly away from the US to a more "neutral" stance.  There is room to argue, I believe, that this is in large part due to diminishing support from some recent US administrations and large part of the US public, or for that matter the Western public and its governments.


----------



## Brad Sallows

See, that is why I don't favour banning propaganda.  Badly done propaganda makes me laugh so much.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Interesting fact I recently learned about the Russian Army and their long standing practice of fragging bad Battlefield Commanders.

They even have a song called "Kombat" to remind commanders not to "hide behind the backs of their men".


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Steve said:


> Soldier 35, please fuck off, eat shit and die!


Folks,....this is not the website where we debate like this.  I get the sentiment, but not here please.
  Thank you.

Besides, those videos just show that the Russian propaganda film industry works about as well as their tires...


EDIT: does everyone get a WWE wrestling video for the first link now??


----------



## Prairie canuck

The longer NATO sits on its hands the harder it becomes to have any respect for all the righteous "democracy is best" statements. It's terrible to pray for Russia to stick their toe across the border and call "Biden's Bluff".


----------



## Altair

Prairie canuck said:


> The longer NATO sits on its hands the harder it becomes to have any respect for all the righteous "democracy is best" statements. It's terrible to pray for Russia to stick their toe across the border and call "Biden's Bluff".


Youre not a tad bit concerned that its just words?


----------



## The Bread Guy

As of last night, it sounds like the overwhelming majority of people leaving UKR are headed to Poland, as opposed to other EU border states, according to the UKR border guards' info machine


> *During the day on March 25, more than 66,000 people and 14,000 vehicles crossed Ukraine's western borders with the EU and Moldova. Passenger traffic on the western part of the border remains constant.                        *​Almost 45,000 people left Ukraine last night. About 31,000 of them crossed the border into Poland.
> 
> We remind you that you can also choose checkpoints on the border with Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and the Republic of Moldova to cross the border into the EU. Currently, there are no queues of pedestrians and vehicles in almost all directions.
> 
> More than 21,000 people arrived in Ukraine last night. More than 18,000 of them are Ukrainians, the vast majority of whom are men who plan to defend the Motherland ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Altair said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507473089952718851
> Dead?


RUS independent media says it appears he's alive if we believe RUS state TV ....








						Russian Defense Minister Reappears After 2-Week Absence - The Moscow Times
					

Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reappeared on television images broadcast Saturday, after his two-week absence from view prompted questions from journalists.




					www.themoscowtimes.com


----------



## Prairie canuck

Altair said:


> Youre not a tad bit concerned that its just words?


I'm sure the eastern flank countries who are straining at the leash are more than interested to see if it's just words.


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> RUS independent media says it appears he's alive if we believe RUS state TV ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian Defense Minister Reappears After 2-Week Absence - The Moscow Times
> 
> 
> Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reappeared on television images broadcast Saturday, after his two-week absence from view prompted questions from journalists.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.themoscowtimes.com


Did you see the leaked document from an acting defense chief that they needed to find pictures and video showing he was alive and well? Tell me, why need an acting defense chief if your chief is okay? Hm....


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Yes that's a road sign.....


----------



## Blackadder1916

Colin Parkinson said:


> Yes that's a road sign.....
> View attachment 69739



From August 2020









						Here's what it looked like when a Ukrainian fighter jet smacked into a road sign while landing on a highway
					

Several Ukrainian combat jets and were practicing landings on a highway when one collided with a sign, narrowly avoiding a more serious accident.




					www.businessinsider.com
				




_Edited to add_

A slow motion look


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1299220056593793031


----------



## Skysix

Colin Parkinson said:


> Yes that's a road sign.....
> View attachment 69739


At least they try to fly from not airstrips. US does not with F15/16/18.

Could use better ground prep though😝


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507788682803220481


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507459228520300545


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507740656994820097


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507412943251591168


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507825187546447881


----------



## Blackadder1916

Skysix said:


> At least they try to fly from not airstrips. US does not with F15/16/18.
> 
> Could use better ground prep though😝



They have, in the past.

Long in the past.






And not so long in the past.









						A-10s make rare highway landing near Russian border | CNN Politics
					

Four U.S. Air Force A-10 "Warthogs" jets landed Monday on the remote Jägala highway in Estonia near the Russian border, the first such practice road landing in over 30 years.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507493829007585281


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507714420918480900


----------



## Skysix

Blackadder1916 said:


> They have, in the past.
> 
> Long in the past.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And not so long in the past.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A-10s make rare highway landing near Russian border | CNN Politics
> 
> 
> Four U.S. Air Force A-10 "Warthogs" jets landed Monday on the remote Jägala highway in Estonia near the Russian border, the first such practice road landing in over 30 years.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com


Still do with Warthogs  just not fast air. The rest are not USAF. I think Norway does with fast air though. Possibly also Sweden.


----------



## RaceAddict

Skysix said:


> Still do with Warthogs  just not fast air. The rest are not USAF. I think Norway does with fast air though. Possibly also Sweden.



Sweden for sure, it's one of the Gripens selling points:








						SwAF Gripen pilots train on national highway
					

SwAF Gripen pilots train on national highway.




					www.blogbeforeflight.net


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507423352943783940
> And the Russians showing yet again that they are willing to fight to the last Chechen.
> 
> 
> 
> The blocs that are forming because of this conflict are interesting but really we are just seeing in full view for the first time, who butters each other's bread.
> 
> You've now got three primary power blocs:
> 
> 1.  An Anglo-American aligned bloc
> 2.  A Chinese aligned bloc
> 3.  A Euro-centric bloc (the weakest of the bunch)
> 
> There is also a number of independent actors who lie outside these Blocs:  India, Brazil, Israel, Indonesia, etc.


But #3 has the best food, dessert and wine.


----------



## Brad Sallows

Sometimes in Europe, a highway seems oddly straight and broad for a long stretch.


----------



## MilEME09

Well someone is taking advantage of the situation 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507837757917437953


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> Well someone is taking advantage of the situation
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507837757917437953


Maybe the Turks help to Ukraine isn't without purpose?


----------



## Skysix

Brad Sallows said:


> Sometimes in Europe, a highway seems oddly straight and broad for a long stretch.


In the North American north as well, although to date I have only heard of CC-138's and civilian medevac aircraft doing so other than in an emergency.


----------



## GK .Dundas

Skysix said:


> In the North American north as well, although to date I have only heard of CC-138's and civilian medevac aircraft doing so other than in an emergency.


I have a vague( very vague ) memory of a DHC 5 doing it in BC ,I want to say the 70's  but as I said it's pretty vague.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> In the North American north as well, although to date I have only heard of CC-138's and civilian medevac aircraft doing so other than in an emergency.



Yes.  I remember at least one such stretch on the Dease Lake road in BC.  The windsock was a giveaway.


----------



## Kirkhill

I thought this was interesting and widely applicable.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/toxynx


----------



## Kirkhill




----------



## Kirkhill

Disappeared









						Not only Shoigu disappeared from the public space, but also other key security officials - Zolotov, Bortnikov and Kostyukov
					

I am reposting this interesting article that appeared earlier today in Moscow Times. Moscow Times Not only Sergei Shoigu fell out of the public field, but almost all the main security officials. We came to this conclusion after studying the reports in the media and official sources about the...




					olgalautman.substack.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Her day job is Member of Parliament.  Killing tanks for the duration.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Even the Red Cross has to set the record straight ....


> ... *The ICRC does not ever help organize or carry out forced evacuations.* This applies everywhere we work. We would not support any operation that would go against people's will and our principles. We have been involved in two evacuations of people in Ukraine – they took place in Sumy on March 15 and 18, when we facilitated the voluntary safe passage of civilians out of the city. On both occasions people willingly took buses leading them to another Ukrainian city, Lubny ...


----------



## Prairie canuck

Sleepy Joe gave Putin exactly what he wanted today. By saying Putin should be removed from office he fed right into the Russian narrative that the US and NATO have had that as a priority all along. Putin can quote Biden directly when he sells his story to the Russian people. "I've told you this for years and here's the proof" 
(insert Putin with evil smirk here) 
(insert the rest of NATO doing a face palm here)
(insert Zelenskiy with his head between his hands sayin "for f's sake.." here)


----------



## dapaterson

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507879729143042054


----------



## Posthumane

Prairie canuck said:


> Sleepy Joe gave Putin exactly what he wanted today. By saying Putin should be removed from office he fed right into the Russian narrative that the US and NATO have had that as a priority all along. Putin can quote Biden directly when he sells his story to the Russian people. "I've told you this for years and here's the proof"
> (insert Putin with evil smirk here)
> (insert the rest of NATO doing a face palm here)
> (insert Zelenskiy with his head between his hands sayin "for f's sake.." here)


I don't know about that. There are many people in Russia who feel it is time for a regime change, although many say they don't see who could possibly replace him right now. There's a big difference between saying "we want to eliminate Russia" and "we want Russia to have a better leader." Granted, there are some people that won't see the difference between an existential threat to the country/people/culture and an existential threat to the authoritarian leader of said county due to the personality cult surrounding him, but I don't know how significant of a portion of the population that is.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507902750520233986


----------



## Remius

Posthumane said:


> I don't know about that. There are many people in Russia who feel it is time for a regime change, although many say they don't see who could possibly replace him right now. There's a big difference between saying "we want to eliminate Russia" and "we want Russia to have a better leader." Granted, there are some people that won't see the difference between an existential threat to the country/people/culture and an existential threat to the authoritarian leader of said county due to the personality cult surrounding him, but I don't know how significant of a portion of the population that is.


I’m of the same opinion.  I think it needed to be said and I think it was for Russian consumption.


----------



## MilEME09




----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> View attachment 69742


What they should do is break that number down by population….


----------



## WLSC

Posthumane said:


> I don't know about that. There are many people in Russia who feel it is time for a regime change, although many say they don't see who could possibly replace him right now. There's a big difference between saying "we want to eliminate Russia" and "we want Russia to have a better leader." Granted, there are some people that won't see the difference between an existential threat to the country/people/culture and an existential threat to the authoritarian leader of said county due to the personality cult surrounding him, but I don't know how significant of a portion of the population that is.


I’m leaning towards what you said.  Yes it will be used by Putin but it will also send the message to the Russian.  That’s ok to bully the bully.


----------



## Kirkhill

Czech_pivo said:


> What they should do is break that number down by population….


Rough Estimate  UKP/Capita


N500​Sve400​UK179​Ndld176​D119​Aus111​F92​Cda79​US60​Jpn48​


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> Rough Estimate  UKP/Capita
> 
> 
> N500​Sve400​UK179​Ndld176​D119​Aus111​F92​Cda79​US60​Jpn48​


Is that in UK Pounds?


----------



## WLSC

Just saw that…


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> Is that in UK Pounds?


Yes.


----------



## HiTechComms

Well been interesting global moves.  Favorite contrarian is back 

Russians keep taking more and more. Once Mariupol falls Russians will have all their strategic objectives.  The longer this war goes on the worse the negotiation terms Ukraine will be presented. Azov battalion being stuck there, Russians have deemed them as the Neo-Nazis. Even the CAF trainers refused to provide training to them because of Neo-Nazi ties. Intel reports say 6k out of 14k is left, Russians will kill them all its a fight to the last for Azov battalion. If they are Neo-Nazi and by the looks of it they are; I feel no empathy for them, if they survive the Russians will setup tribunals for show.

According to the stats








						Ukraine civilian war casualties 2022 | Statista
					

Over nine months since the start of the Russian invasion, civilian death toll in Ukraine exceeded 6,700 as of December 2022, as verified by OHCHR.




					www.statista.com
				



Fairly low number of Civilian casualties. I guess the Humanitarian corridors worked and cities emptied out fast. Unlike anything like Iraq.








						Civilian deaths in Iraq war 2003-2022 | Statista
					

Between 2003 and October 2022, the number of civilian deaths due to the Iraq war has fluctuated significantly.




					www.statista.com
				



As previously pointed out the Russians are willing to sacrifice soldiers rather then civilians hence now mass aerial bombings of cities. This is purely a Western Tactic. (WW2, Korea, Yugoslavia)

Russian have concentrated on destroying the Armies like they did in Chechnya and Syria. Ironically Chechnya is fighting under the Russian banner.. WTF?! (guess the Russians know something we do not)

Ukraine has literally seen no insurgency which is unlike what happened in Iraq/Afghanistan. Still early but I doubt we will see any.

Russians has tactically tied up Kyiv and Kharkiv which denied relief to the eastern army on the Donbas borders.

Russia is not failing as expected economically, there is no sign of any instability political establishment or regime.

Kherson region has adopted the Ruble as currency. Russians have secured this region by the looks of it. ( I don't think Russia will give this region up even if Ukraine agreed to all Russian demands)

Sanctions are not working. Ruble has recovered a lot, Russian Stock market has re-opened and has been up, central bank is back open.

Putin now has reversed some moves on the way the sanctions are working. Demanding Ruble to be used for fuel/gas to hostile countries. Petro Ruble which was predicted is about to come tue. Not sure how these will work since SWIFT has been bared. Are they gone fly gold to Moscow buy Ruble and pay the Russians?

Russia has made payments on their debts so far and it doesn't appear they will default.

China nor India has sided with any Sanctions. In fact BRICS pretty well much had nothing to say. Most of the world was not on the side of the West.

Ukraine is gone become fractured into two or possibly 3 states.

Maybe Poland will Annex Western Ukraine? Some talk about this which would be a mistake as it would be seen as huge as its a poor region and would be seen as betrayal by Ukrainians. Polish Nato peace Keepers push after peace?
Poland is playing a con game imho and demanding to be financed by the west, which I think is a brilliant move but not sure any one will buy it as there virtually no risk of the Russian heading west. I am polak and am familiar with victim angle that poles used against Germans in the EU.

French car companies re-opened production in Russia, guess they are opportunists and Putin lovers?!








						Renault resumes car production in Moscow as rivals cut ties with Russia
					

Carmaker’s move backed by French government as Nestlé also comes under pressure to withdraw business




					www.theguardian.com
				




On other noted of fallout of Ukraine War (Geopolitics)

Blackrock CEO has signaled that the Liberal World order of Globalism is at an end. Which imho is a good thing. I think this the best thing that can happen for world peace as it will make countries more focused on what inside their borders rather then outside. Not good for the military industrial complex.

IMF has stated that a lot of countries are starting to De-Dollar their reserves which will cause even more woes for the west. US led institution I think its sounding alarms. This is the result of sanctioning the Russian central banks by Biden. Still cannot believe that the West has destroyed trust in banking and 500+ years of contract law by seizing Russian ethnic people property with out due process. Canada really has a really black eye. There was a bank run in Canada after Ottawa declared EA and freeze of accounts, this on the record from the Trust and Credit unions, which is why I think it was reversed so quickly.

I think we are going to see further Nationalization of countries, Good fences make good neighbors. Canada would greatly benefit as a supplier for the west. Hopefully the "recommendations" of the 13 year old kvetching potato girl is thrown out the window and we build pipelines east and west.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506645038683799557HAHAHA Russia and China wants Soros.. Yep fuck that guy. Once a Nazi always a Nazi; bastard collaborator needs to be hung and quartered for his crimes.

Saudi's got hit by Yemeni rebels which will spark even bigger energy price bumps..








						Satellite photos show Yemen rebels hit Saudi oil site again
					

Yemen’s Houthi rebels this week struck the same oil storage tank in the Saudi Arabian city of Jiddah they had previously hit a year and a half ago




					abcnews.go.com
				




Is Germany gone destroy the Europe for the third time with their short sighted sanctioning strategy? The EU parliament lost its mind if they think they can be independent of Russia energy by 2024. It takes years to build energy infrastructure if its anything like Canada.

Oh lastly Hunter Biden laptop from Hell is now implicating American muckery in Ukraine. Which has been verified by American Press. Regime change might not happen in Russia but rather in America.

Twitter and Media propaganda is at all time high. So much hopium which will soon become copium. 2-3 weeks will most likely see a de-escalation. Simple fact is Russia is wining and nothing is going to change that fact.

Now for some reason the West is targeting China with threats, which is stupid beyond belief.

Flame away.


----------



## Kirkhill

Territorials at work spotting targets.









						On patrol using drones to monitor Russian troops
					

The BBC joins a Ukrainian defence unit carrying out aerial reconnaissance around Kyiv.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## Kirkhill

The Hunter Biden Laptop just keeps on giving









						Hunter Biden helped secure millions for biotech research Ukraine
					

Email emails and correspondence obtained by DailyMail.com from Hunter's abandoned laptop show he helped secure millions for Metabiota.




					www.dailymail.co.uk


----------



## Altair

HiTechComms said:


> Well been interesting global moves.  Favorite contrarian is back
> 
> Russians keep taking more and more. Once Mariupol falls Russians will have all their strategic objectives.  The longer this war goes on the worse the negotiation terms Ukraine will be presented. Azov battalion being stuck there, Russians have deemed them as the Neo-Nazis. Even the CAF trainers refused to provide training to them because of Neo-Nazi ties. Intel reports say 6k out of 14k is left, Russians will kill them all its a fight to the last for Azov battalion. If they are Neo-Nazi and by the looks of it they are; I feel no empathy for them, if they survive the Russians will setup tribunals for show.
> 
> According to the stats
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine civilian war casualties 2022 | Statista
> 
> 
> Over nine months since the start of the Russian invasion, civilian death toll in Ukraine exceeded 6,700 as of December 2022, as verified by OHCHR.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.statista.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Fairly low number of Civilian casualties. I guess the Humanitarian corridors worked and cities emptied out fast. Unlike anything like Iraq.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Civilian deaths in Iraq war 2003-2022 | Statista
> 
> 
> Between 2003 and October 2022, the number of civilian deaths due to the Iraq war has fluctuated significantly.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.statista.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As previously pointed out the Russians are willing to sacrifice soldiers rather then civilians hence now mass aerial bombings of cities. This is purely a Western Tactic. (WW2, Korea, Yugoslavia)
> 
> Russian have concentrated on destroying the Armies like they did in Chechnya and Syria. Ironically Chechnya is fighting under the Russian banner.. WTF?! (guess the Russians know something we do not)
> 
> Ukraine has literally seen no insurgency which is unlike what happened in Iraq/Afghanistan. Still early but I doubt we will see any.
> 
> Russians has tactically tied up Kyiv and Kharkiv which denied relief to the eastern army on the Donbas borders.
> 
> Russia is not failing as expected economically, there is no sign of any instability political establishment or regime.
> 
> Kherson region has adopted the Ruble as currency. Russians have secured this region by the looks of it. ( I don't think Russia will give this region up even if Ukraine agreed to all Russian demands)
> 
> Sanctions are not working. Ruble has recovered a lot, Russian Stock market has re-opened and has been up, central bank is back open.
> 
> Putin now has reversed some moves on the way the sanctions are working. Demanding Ruble to be used for fuel/gas to hostile countries. Petro Ruble which was predicted is about to come tue. Not sure how these will work since SWIFT has been bared. Are they gone fly gold to Moscow buy Ruble and pay the Russians?
> 
> Russia has made payments on their debts so far and it doesn't appear they will default.
> 
> China nor India has sided with any Sanctions. In fact BRICS pretty well much had nothing to say. Most of the world was not on the side of the West.
> 
> Ukraine is gone become fractured into two or possibly 3 states.
> 
> Maybe Poland will Annex Western Ukraine? Some talk about this which would be a mistake as it would be seen as huge as its a poor region and would be seen as betrayal by Ukrainians. Polish Nato peace Keepers push after peace?
> Poland is playing a con game imho and demanding to be financed by the west, which I think is a brilliant move but not sure any one will buy it as there virtually no risk of the Russian heading west. I am polak and am familiar with victim angle that poles used against Germans in the EU.
> 
> French car companies re-opened production in Russia, guess they are opportunists and Putin lovers?!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Renault resumes car production in Moscow as rivals cut ties with Russia
> 
> 
> Carmaker’s move backed by French government as Nestlé also comes under pressure to withdraw business
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> On other noted of fallout of Ukraine War (Geopolitics)
> 
> Blackrock CEO has signaled that the Liberal World order of Globalism is at an end. Which imho is a good thing. I think this the best thing that can happen for world peace as it will make countries more focused on what inside their borders rather then outside. Not good for the military industrial complex.
> 
> IMF has stated that a lot of countries are starting to De-Dollar their reserves which will cause even more woes for the west. US led institution I think its sounding alarms. This is the result of sanctioning the Russian central banks by Biden. Still cannot believe that the West has destroyed trust in banking and 500+ years of contract law by seizing Russian ethnic people property with out due process. Canada really has a really black eye. There was a bank run in Canada after Ottawa declared EA and freeze of accounts, this on the record from the Trust and Credit unions, which is why I think it was reversed so quickly.
> 
> I think we are going to see further Nationalization of countries, Good fences make good neighbors. Canada would greatly benefit as a supplier for the west. Hopefully the "recommendations" of the 13 year old kvetching potato girl is thrown out the window and we build pipelines east and west.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506645038683799557HAHAHA Russia and China wants Soros.. Yep fuck that guy. Once a Nazi always a Nazi; bastard collaborator needs to be hung and quartered for his crimes.
> 
> Saudi's got hit by Yemeni rebels which will spark even bigger energy price bumps..
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Satellite photos show Yemen rebels hit Saudi oil site again
> 
> 
> Yemen’s Houthi rebels this week struck the same oil storage tank in the Saudi Arabian city of Jiddah they had previously hit a year and a half ago
> 
> 
> 
> 
> abcnews.go.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Is Germany gone destroy the Europe for the third time with their short sighted sanctioning strategy? The EU parliament lost its mind if they think they can be independent of Russia energy by 2024. It takes years to build energy infrastructure if its anything like Canada.
> 
> Oh lastly Hunter Biden laptop from Hell is now implicating American muckery in Ukraine. Which has been verified by American Press. Regime change might not happen in Russia but rather in America.
> 
> Twitter and Media propaganda is at all time high. So much hopium which will soon become copium. 2-3 weeks will most likely see a de-escalation. Simple fact is Russia is wining and nothing is going to change that fact.
> 
> Now for some reason the West is targeting China with threats, which is stupid beyond belief.
> 
> Flame away.


I hope that when Russia loses this war that you will be here to own up to your miscalculation.


----------



## lenaitch

HiTechComms said:


> Well been interesting global moves.  Favorite contrarian is back
> 
> Russians keep taking more and more. Once Mariupol falls Russians will have all their strategic objectives.  The longer this war goes on the worse the negotiation terms Ukraine will be presented. Azov battalion being stuck there, Russians have deemed them as the Neo-Nazis. Even the CAF trainers refused to provide training to them because of Neo-Nazi ties. Intel reports say 6k out of 14k is left, Russians will kill them all its a fight to the last for Azov battalion. If they are Neo-Nazi and by the looks of it they are; I feel no empathy for them, if they survive the Russians will setup tribunals for show.
> 
> According to the stats
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine civilian war casualties 2022 | Statista
> 
> 
> Over nine months since the start of the Russian invasion, civilian death toll in Ukraine exceeded 6,700 as of December 2022, as verified by OHCHR.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.statista.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Fairly low number of Civilian casualties. I guess the Humanitarian corridors worked and cities emptied out fast. Unlike anything like Iraq.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Civilian deaths in Iraq war 2003-2022 | Statista
> 
> 
> Between 2003 and October 2022, the number of civilian deaths due to the Iraq war has fluctuated significantly.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.statista.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As previously pointed out the Russians are willing to sacrifice soldiers rather then civilians hence now mass aerial bombings of cities. This is purely a Western Tactic. (WW2, Korea, Yugoslavia)
> 
> Russian have concentrated on destroying the Armies like they did in Chechnya and Syria. Ironically Chechnya is fighting under the Russian banner.. WTF?! (guess the Russians know something we do not)
> 
> Ukraine has literally seen no insurgency which is unlike what happened in Iraq/Afghanistan. Still early but I doubt we will see any.
> 
> Russians has tactically tied up Kyiv and Kharkiv which denied relief to the eastern army on the Donbas borders.
> 
> Russia is not failing as expected economically, there is no sign of any instability political establishment or regime.
> 
> Kherson region has adopted the Ruble as currency. Russians have secured this region by the looks of it. ( I don't think Russia will give this region up even if Ukraine agreed to all Russian demands)
> 
> Sanctions are not working. Ruble has recovered a lot, Russian Stock market has re-opened and has been up, central bank is back open.
> 
> Putin now has reversed some moves on the way the sanctions are working. Demanding Ruble to be used for fuel/gas to hostile countries. Petro Ruble which was predicted is about to come tue. Not sure how these will work since SWIFT has been bared. Are they gone fly gold to Moscow buy Ruble and pay the Russians?
> 
> Russia has made payments on their debts so far and it doesn't appear they will default.
> 
> China nor India has sided with any Sanctions. In fact BRICS pretty well much had nothing to say. Most of the world was not on the side of the West.
> 
> Ukraine is gone become fractured into two or possibly 3 states.
> 
> Maybe Poland will Annex Western Ukraine? Some talk about this which would be a mistake as it would be seen as huge as its a poor region and would be seen as betrayal by Ukrainians. Polish Nato peace Keepers push after peace?
> Poland is playing a con game imho and demanding to be financed by the west, which I think is a brilliant move but not sure any one will buy it as there virtually no risk of the Russian heading west. I am polak and am familiar with victim angle that poles used against Germans in the EU.
> 
> French car companies re-opened production in Russia, guess they are opportunists and Putin lovers?!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Renault resumes car production in Moscow as rivals cut ties with Russia
> 
> 
> Carmaker’s move backed by French government as Nestlé also comes under pressure to withdraw business
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> On other noted of fallout of Ukraine War (Geopolitics)
> 
> Blackrock CEO has signaled that the Liberal World order of Globalism is at an end. Which imho is a good thing. I think this the best thing that can happen for world peace as it will make countries more focused on what inside their borders rather then outside. Not good for the military industrial complex.
> 
> IMF has stated that a lot of countries are starting to De-Dollar their reserves which will cause even more woes for the west. US led institution I think its sounding alarms. This is the result of sanctioning the Russian central banks by Biden. Still cannot believe that the West has destroyed trust in banking and 500+ years of contract law by seizing Russian ethnic people property with out due process. Canada really has a really black eye. There was a bank run in Canada after Ottawa declared EA and freeze of accounts, this on the record from the Trust and Credit unions, which is why I think it was reversed so quickly.
> 
> I think we are going to see further Nationalization of countries, Good fences make good neighbors. Canada would greatly benefit as a supplier for the west. Hopefully the "recommendations" of the 13 year old kvetching potato girl is thrown out the window and we build pipelines east and west.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506645038683799557HAHAHA Russia and China wants Soros.. Yep fuck that guy. Once a Nazi always a Nazi; bastard collaborator needs to be hung and quartered for his crimes.
> 
> Saudi's got hit by Yemeni rebels which will spark even bigger energy price bumps..
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Satellite photos show Yemen rebels hit Saudi oil site again
> 
> 
> Yemen’s Houthi rebels this week struck the same oil storage tank in the Saudi Arabian city of Jiddah they had previously hit a year and a half ago
> 
> 
> 
> 
> abcnews.go.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Is Germany gone destroy the Europe for the third time with their short sighted sanctioning strategy? The EU parliament lost its mind if they think they can be independent of Russia energy by 2024. It takes years to build energy infrastructure if its anything like Canada.
> 
> Oh lastly Hunter Biden laptop from Hell is now implicating American muckery in Ukraine. Which has been verified by American Press. Regime change might not happen in Russia but rather in America.
> 
> Twitter and Media propaganda is at all time high. So much hopium which will soon become copium. 2-3 weeks will most likely see a de-escalation. Simple fact is Russia is wining and nothing is going to change that fact.
> 
> Now for some reason the West is targeting China with threats, which is stupid beyond belief.
> 
> Flame away.


Wow - your phraseology  in this one doesn't even try to disguise an ESL post from a +UTC perspective.  You've got to work on that; tossing in the odd "we" doesn't cut it.

I guess the attacks on apartment blocks and hospitals were, what, bad trig?  Windage?


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR mil int's tote board ...

... and this word from the RUS MoD info-machine:  if we're going to call you up for the fight, we won't be phoning first (safe PDF of RUS MoD official English text attached)


> ... In recent days, many Russian male citizens have received fake phone calls in which an answer-back unit informs them of a call to the military commissariat.  I want to emphasize, all such fake calls are made from the territory of Ukraine, are completely untrue and are a provocation by the Ukrainian special services.  I officially declare that the Russian Defence Ministry does not planning to call any citizens in reserve to military commissariats.


----------



## Good2Golf

Putin/Shoigu:  “We have no intention of invading Ukraine….”


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> View attachment 69748
> 
> Putin/Shoigu:  “We have no intention of invading Ukraine….”


Well, if I had to guess, I wouldn't be surprised if RUS conscription authorities showed up at doors to ... help encourage the fighter of the justice of the cause, rather than telegraphing it with a "hey, we're gonna be by this afternoon - you good?" call 


Kirkhill said:


> The Hunter Biden Laptop just keeps on giving
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hunter Biden helped secure millions for biotech research Ukraine
> 
> 
> Email emails and correspondence obtained by DailyMail.com from Hunter's abandoned laptop show he helped secure millions for Metabiota.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.dailymail.co.uk


Here's the RUS MoD briefing that and other stories on this angle seem to have been based on ...


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507771086221553672


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508058648987242498


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR's Cabinet:  we're streamlining defence acquisition by treating things like body armour, certain radios, collimator sights, etc. as "humanitarian aid"





						ShieldSquare Captcha
					






					www.kmu.gov.ua


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508003530640179201
Little tone deaf


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508003530640179201
> Little tone deaf


Perhaps if he had wished him well and to “get back on his _foot_” soon, would have been more sensitive?


----------



## KevinB

Thanks for the opinion China.  


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507996256798396416


----------



## Eaglelord17

HiTechComms said:


> Well been interesting global moves.  Favorite contrarian is back
> 
> Russians keep taking more and more. Once Mariupol falls Russians will have all their strategic objectives.  The longer this war goes on the worse the negotiation terms Ukraine will be presented. Azov battalion being stuck there, Russians have deemed them as the Neo-Nazis. Even the CAF trainers refused to provide training to them because of Neo-Nazi ties. Intel reports say 6k out of 14k is left, Russians will kill them all its a fight to the last for Azov battalion. If they are Neo-Nazi and by the looks of it they are; I feel no empathy for them, if they survive the Russians will setup tribunals for show.



The fact you believe any of Russia's so called 'strategic objectives' is concerning to say the least. They have lied consistently for decades about what their plans and objectives are. Remember we aren't in Crimea? Then proceeded to annex it. Or we aren't fighting in the East? When their soldiers are posting on social media within Ukraines borders. Or it is just a military exercise by Ukraine, we aren't going to invade them? Then its all out war labelled as a 'special operation'. 

Belarus showed us a invasion map of Ukraine, showing the intent to divide/annex the country, with a carry on push into Moldavia. That wasn't Western Propaganda, that was Putin's closest ally (or Client state if you prefer) accidentally showing a critical map. The reason that hasn't come to fruition is because of the incompetency of the Russians and the skill and blood of the Ukrainians who are fighting them to a standstill. The saddest part about all this is all the people dying for nothing. The Ukrainians dying in their homes being bombed into the ground, to the young Russians who are being forced to their deaths in a war most of them don't even want to fight in.


----------



## HiTechComms

Eaglelord17 said:


> The fact you believe any of Russia's so called 'strategic objectives' is concerning to say the least. They have lied consistently for decades about what their plans and objectives are. Remember we aren't in Crimea? Then proceeded to annex it. Or we aren't fighting in the East? When their soldiers are posting on social media within Ukraines borders. Or it is just a military exercise by Ukraine, we aren't going to invade them? Then its all out war labelled as a 'special operation'.
> 
> Belarus showed us a invasion map of Ukraine, showing the intent to divide/annex the country, with a carry on push into Moldavia. That wasn't Western Propaganda, that was Putin's closest ally (or Client state if you prefer) accidentally showing a critical map. The reason that hasn't come to fruition is because of the incompetency of the Russians and the skill and blood of the Ukrainians who are fighting them to a standstill. The saddest part about all this is all the people dying for nothing. The Ukrainians dying in their homes being bombed into the ground, to the young Russians who are being forced to their deaths in a war most of them don't even want to fight in.


Russians don't need more then they already have they will take more if the Ukrainians don't surrender. The original purpose of the Russian invasion was such as that. According to Putin. Not that I believe him.

If they go to Moldova its a possibility, Ukraine wasn't ever going to surrender. The Russians will just use this opportunity to go further. Russia cares little for western Ukraine.

If you think the Ukrainians are fighting them to a standstill I think that is just propaganda. Russians will crush the Ukrainian Army they will declaw the entire country, they had stated this as their purpose. This is why they are encircling them slowly.  Again you are projecting WESTERN strategic tactics on the Russians.

Azov battalion goons, well I have no empathy for Neo-Nazis.  Ukrainian Nazis butchered 60k Poles, we have a history with those aholes.

Polish news media is starting to break the narrative

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507807336043356161
Sorry its for Polish speakers.

After speaking with family members in Poland, a lot of people in Poland actually agree with the Russians and see the Polish government dragging us into a NATO war.

I am don't get outraged by casualties, War never changes. Young men always die for the old. They should have made 40+ year old fight wars.

Oddly enough how Feminists are not outraged there is no female representatives, I mean sure there might some female soldiers that die but it will be the vast minority. I guess Ukraine and Russia don't believe in GBA+.

Everyone calls me a out to lunch yet none of you actually put a rebuttal for the points I made.

Russia just announced Ruble being Pegged to gold. This might a good sign for everyone as it will prevent government just printing money. As I remember correctly Canada purged all its gold reserves, hindsight that might have been a terrible idea?

Be back in couple weeks to see how wrong I am about Russians.  Cheers.. Keep everything civil. Good discussion!


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> Russians don't need more then they already have they will take more if the Ukrainians don't surrender. The original purpose of the Russian invasion was such as that. According to Putin. Not that I believe him.
> 
> If they go to Moldova its a possibility, Ukraine wasn't ever going to surrender. The Russians will just use this opportunity to go further. Russia cares little for western Ukraine.
> 
> If you think the Ukrainians are fighting them to a standstill I think that is just propaganda. Russians will crush the Ukrainian Army they will declaw the entire country, they had stated this as their purpose. This is why they are encircling them slowly.  Again you are projecting WESTERN strategic tactics on the Russians.
> 
> Azov battalion goons, well I have no empathy for Neo-Nazis.  Ukrainian Nazis butchered 60k Poles, we have a history with those aholes.
> 
> Polish news media is starting to break the narrative
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507807336043356161
> Sorry its for Polish speakers.
> 
> After speaking with family members in Poland, a lot of people in Poland actually agree with the Russians and see the Polish government dragging us into a NATO war.
> 
> I am don't get outraged by casualties, War never changes. Young men always die for the old. They should have made 40+ year old fight wars.
> 
> Oddly enough how Feminists are not outraged there is no female representatives, I mean sure there might some female soldiers that die but it will be the vast minority. I guess Ukraine and Russia don't believe in GBA+.
> 
> Everyone calls me a out to lunch yet none of you actually put a rebuttal for the points I made.



How does one rebut when you paint a complete fantasy with conspiracy talk.  It’s Hot Garbage.

It must be tough to see a once great power you admire be laid so low.  To be a pale shadow of what it used to be.  NATO is actually winning without even having to put a single boot on the ground. 

Strange that Russia is now, like you, changing it’s goal posts.  Funny how Russia still has not achieved any of its major objectives. 

You aren’t paying attention.  

Russia will end up weaker than it is and will be China’s client state.  There is no way this ends in a positive for Russia.


----------



## suffolkowner

HiTechComms said:


> Russians don't need more then they already have they will take more if the Ukrainians don't surrender. The original purpose of the Russian invasion was such as that. According to Putin. Not that I believe him.
> 
> If they go to Moldova its a possibility, Ukraine wasn't ever going to surrender. The Russians will just use this opportunity to go further. Russia cares little for western Ukraine.
> 
> If you think the Ukrainians are fighting them to a standstill I think that is just propaganda. Russians will crush the Ukrainian Army they will declaw the entire country, they had stated this as their purpose. This is why they are encircling them slowly.  Again you are projecting WESTERN strategic tactics on the Russians.
> 
> Azov battalion goons, well I have no empathy for Neo-Nazis.  Ukrainian Nazis butchered 60k Poles, we have a history with those aholes.
> 
> Polish news media is starting to break the narrative
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507807336043356161
> Sorry its for Polish speakers.
> 
> After speaking with family members in Poland, a lot of people in Poland actually agree with the Russians and see the Polish government dragging us into a NATO war.
> 
> I am don't get outraged by casualties, War never changes. Young men always die for the old. They should have made 40+ year old fight wars.
> 
> Oddly enough how Feminists are not outraged there is no female representatives, I mean sure there might some female soldiers that die but it will be the vast minority. I guess Ukraine and Russia don't believe in GBA+.
> 
> Everyone calls me a out to lunch yet none of you actually put a rebuttal for the points I made.
> 
> Russia just announced Ruble being Pegged to gold. This might a good sign for everyone as it will prevent government just printing money. As I remember correctly Canada purged all its gold reserves, hindsight that might have been a terrible idea?
> 
> Be back in couple weeks to see how wrong I am about Russians.  Cheers.. Keep everything civil. Good discussion!


I will eagerly await your return when Russia invades Moldova


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Good morning everyone,

I have just deleted a number of posts in this thread for "*Trolling*".

*If you can't manage your emotions towards certain opinions shared in this thread, I am going to remove your ability to participate in this thread.*

You may not agree with someone's opinion and that is completely fine but....

You will provide a rebuttal to their post, not attack them personally.  

In the case of @HiTechComms  it's clear many/most don't share the same opinion as the member; however, throughout all their posts, the member has not once insulted another member.

I can't say the same for others.  Attack the idea, not the person.  

We also have an ignore feature, it's very handy if you're a non-moderator and don't have to listen to everyone 😉

Thank you for your continued cooperation.

Milnet.ca Staff


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508090566336303108


----------



## Colin Parkinson

My Brother inlaw worked in biological research, a few million does not buy you much even in a place like Ukraine. Agicultural countries do a lot of work with diseases like Anthrax and other livestock diseases. In fact the Black Death as I recall came from Central Asia as a livestock disease that leapt to Humans. So it's not that weird to setup labs in agricultural country.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507995782452224000


----------



## ueo

Brad Sallows said:


> Sometimes in Europe, a highway seems oddly straight and broad for a long stretch.


When that other autocrat caused the autobahn system to be built, I gather that this was a major planning consideration. Also many bridges/overpasses had the shafts for demo built in. Mind you this memory comes from the 70's.


----------



## Brad Sallows

Some posts you just need to bookmark for those slow days at work a few months from now when you need a laugh.


----------



## The Bread Guy

If this is fully correct, sounds like a few kinks to iron out with UKR's foreign legion intake process


> Like a lot of foreigners eager to fight the Russians, Paul Hughes arrived in Ukraine from Calgary expecting to be handed a gun and taken straight to the front line.
> 
> And like many would-be combatants, the notion of even coming to Ukraine had been a bit of a whim. Mr. Hughes, 57, is an anti-poverty activist who spent some time with the Princess Patricia Light Infantry years ago. He’d felt compelled to join the struggle in Ukraine after the Russian army invaded last month, even though all he knew about the country was that it contained a city called Kyiv.
> 
> A generous donor gave him a plane ticket and after a circuitous route that included a brief detention in Germany, Mr. Hughes arrived in Lviv on March 4 eager to sign up with the newly formed International Legion for the Territorial Defence of Ukraine. “I thought literally when I got across the border they were going to hand me a gun,” Mr. Hughes recalled.
> 
> He quickly discovered that the legion was ill-equipped and disorganized. “They couldn’t guarantee me a weapon,” he said. “I’m not going anywhere near Russia without a weapon. So I bailed on all that.” ...


Full text (without headline) also attached in case link doesn't work for you.


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> If this is fully correct, sounds like a few kinks to iron out with UKR's foreign legion intake process
> 
> Full text (without headline) also attached in case link doesn't work for you.


To be fair, they were pretty much trying to organize a regiment without any logistics, etc already in place so if course its a mess at first. Though according to videos I've seen, looks like the foreign legion is very active around Kyiv, and appear well equipped. You gotta remember the Ukrainians were equipping the foreign legion and 900k reservists at the same time. There will absolutely be some chaos in organizing, that's why it was a month before we saw organized counter attacks.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508090566336303108


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> To be fair, they were pretty much trying to organize a regiment without any logistics, etc already in place so if course its a mess at first. Though according to videos I've seen, looks like the foreign legion is very active around Kyiv, and appear well equipped. You gotta remember the Ukrainians were equipping the foreign legion and 900k reservists at the same time. There will absolutely be some chaos in organizing, that's why it was a month before we saw organized counter attacks.


Also given the reported volume of people dropping by for the fight on pretty short notice, what system would be perfect, right?


----------



## Kickingsauce

This post is more on the humanity aspect of things. I might find VICE news to normally have exceptionally bad articles, but I will also say that their war docs are by far the best out there.

Vice released this today on the battle for South Ukraine. I consider myself a hard man, but there were many moments in this that broke me down. Full warning, there is alot of grieving relatives of lost ones in this. Slava Ukraini


----------



## MilEME09

Ukraine launches investigation into POW treatment, though the video that launched it has proven fake, but it shows Ukrainian transparency.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508182225531154446


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> Ukraine launches investigation into POW treatment, though the video that launched it has proven fake, but it shows Ukrainian transparency.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508182225531154446


It would be nice if you would clarify where you found out the video was fake from?

I saw the video, they were kneecapping prisoners.

Didn't look fake and should definitely be investigated, especially if Ukraine wants to continue to occupy the moral high ground.


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> It would be nice if you would clarify where you found out the video was fake from?
> 
> I saw the video, they were kneecapping prisoners.
> 
> Didn't look fake and should definitely be investigated, especially if Ukraine wants to continue to occupy the moral high ground.


Here is a good thread about it


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508036906088636423


----------



## daftandbarmy

Hurry up and wait, CQ's shop all messed up... sounds like the authentic military experience to me 


*No gun, no helmet, no action: The frustrations of some novice Americans who signed up to fight in Ukraine*

Before he decided to buy a one-way plane ticket to Ukraine, Adam worked two jobs, as a security guard and as a cashier at a 99 Cents store. He owned guns and fired them at shooting ranges, but the only fighting he had ever done was in mixed martial arts classes.

That didn’t stop the tall, lanky 24-year-old from Thousand Oaks, a Los Angeles suburb, from flying to this war-torn capital earlier this month. He joined a new international legion set up to fight Russian forces about 15 miles outside the city.

Adam, sporting camouflage pants, is unfazed by his inexperience in combat. He will rely, he said, on sheer determination — to save Ukraine and protect American values.

“Democracy and freedom are very important to the whole world,” said Adam, seated in the lobby of a Kyiv hotel, along with other foreigners dressed in their new military camouflage who have joined his unit. “What [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is doing is simply wrong. And Ukraine is the underdog, so they need help.”

Since Russia invaded Ukraine, thousands of Americans and other foreign nationals have signed up to fight for Ukraine, answering a call to action by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Now, as the conflict enters its fourth week, a growing number of foreign volunteers are flowing into the capital, signing contracts and receiving weapons and combat training before getting deployed to one of the numerous front lines of the war.

They have been compared to the 32,000 foreigners, mostly Americans and Europeans, many of them equally unprepared, who joined the republican forces in Spain’s 1936-39 civil war. That conflict became a losing battle against nationalists led by General Francisco Franco, with the support of Nazi Germany and the fascist Italian government of Benito Mussolini.

In Ukraine’s brutal modern war, though, the romance of adventure and political convictions can quickly vanish as volunteers get pounded by airstrikes, Grad rockets and artillery shells, or engage in urban warfare on the streets of cities.While some experienced American veterans of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are said to be among the volunteers, many of these would-be fighters, such as Adam, are novices at best.

They say they do share a sense of righteous conviction. They’ve seen the images of civilians being killed by Russian bombardments, and like those who went to Spain, they believe they are on the right side of history.

“I’ve got very little military experience, but I am willing to go and fight and die with this guy,” said Brian, a Canadian business analyst, referring to Adam standing nearby, “because my Ukrainian relatives are here.”

“I have been a hunter all my life,” Brian said. “I got assigned to a sniper team here. I am going to kill every ... Russian I can,” he said, using an expletive to describe Russians.

“Never killed a man in my life but ... I am going to enjoy [it].”

All the foreign volunteers interviewed for this article did not want their last names to be used. Some were concerned about their security, while others wanted to protect their relatives or had not yet told their families they were in Ukraine to fight the Russians.
It remains unclear what added utility the arriving foreign recruits can bring as soldiers, medical aides or logistics personnel on the battlefields.

And the government’s volunteer program, at times, appears to be disorganized, according to interviews with five volunteers and an ethnic Georgian commander who has enlisted Americans and other foreigners into his own paramilitary force in Ukraine. Some would-be fighters are processed in their home nations. Others are landing in the capital without contacts or speaking the language, hoping that someone will get them trained and shipped to the front.

If nothing else, the foreigners may be useful for public relations purposes, demonstrating the global support for Ukraine.

“This is a way of tying in populations from other countries to the Ukrainian war and the outcome of the war,” said Ilmari Kaihko, an associate professor of war studies at the Swedish Defense University who has researched Ukraine’s conflict. “The political might be more important in the long term than the actual military contribution.”

But there is concern that some of these American and other Western volunteers could become liabilities on the battlefield. If Americans get captured by Russian forces, they could become fodder for the Kremlin’s propaganda machine, held up as evidence that Ukraine’s resistance is really an American and Western plot. If they get killed, it could bring more pressure on the United States to retaliate.

Adam just wants to get on the battlefield as soon as possible. His first choice, he said, is to be a medic because he took a first aid class in the United States, he said. His second choice?

“A sniper,” he said.

He has no experience at either job.

In the days after the Feb. 24 invasion, Adam said, he couldn’t stop watching the news. As a Jew with dual U.S.-Israeli citizenship, he said he saw similarities between the Russian assault on Ukraine and Israel’s conflict with the Palestinians. He believed that both Ukraine and Israel were “being attacked unprovoked” and that both nations needed more military help to fight their enemies.

He was working odd jobs and getting a degree in automotive technology at a local community college in the San Fernando Valley. “Not much going on at home,” said Adam.

He said he liked “guns, cars, building stuff, basketball, sports and MMA,” referring to mixed martial arts, the sport where fighters battle inside a cage. At shooting ranges, Adam said, he would “shoot moving targets and practice pulling out my weapon and reloading.”

For months, he was planning to move to Israel and join the Israel Defense Forces, he said. But he decided to make a stop in Ukraine first.

Adam didn’t know much about the county, but he felt he knew Eastern Europe because his family descended from Polish and Lithuanian immigrants. He didn’t tell his parents, his three sisters and brother that he was going to fight the Russians, he said. He told them instead that he was going to help Ukrainian refugees entering Poland.

He didn’t reach out to the Ukrainian Embassy or consulate. Nor did he log into its recruitment website, fightforUA.org, where foreign volunteers are supposed to register and learn about the process of joining Ukraine’s armed forces, Adam said.

“I only found out about fightforUA.org when I was already here,” he said.

He flew to Istanbul and then to Warsaw. He hitched a ride to the border and crossed into Ukraine, passing through the western city of Lviv and finally reaching Kyiv.

As many as 20,000 foreigners have expressed interest in joining the International Legion of Territorial Defense of Ukraine, as it is officially called, according to the Ukrainian government. That includes an estimated 4,000 Americans, an official with the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington told The Washington Post last week.

They had to sign contracts saying they will fight until the end of the war. Other volunteers said they were told the contracts meant Geneva Convention rules would apply if they get captured or killed, though experts say it’s unclear if they would be treated with full prisoner of war status.

Each volunteer would receive a salary of roughly $3,000 a month, the same as a soldier, said Yaroslav, a Ukrainian military officer and head organizer of the International Legion in western Ukraine, who declined to give his last name for security reasons.

There are already concerns about the international legion. Volunteers complain of delays in contracts, extensive paperwork, not getting weapons or training quickly enough, and days of waiting before getting assigned to battlefield units.

“There is a big bureaucracy, even now when there is war, and those guys have to experience that bureaucracy,” said Mamuka Mamulashvili, commander of the Georgian National Legion, a paramilitary force that has been fighting Russian separatists and forces in eastern Ukraine for eight years. “For me, it seems very amateur.”

He said “there is a very big flow” of inexperienced Americans and foreigners wanting to fight in Ukraine. “We cannot just take some guy from Brooklyn who wants to fight on the front line,” he said, adding that anyone with no military experience is turned away from his force.

Yaroslav says they are not disorganized. He said there is a thorough vetting process and only those with battlefield experience are allowed to fight.

“When they don’t have any experience, they aren’t useful here. We tell them they can be volunteers for something else.”

Foreigners can also join other Ukrainian militias that have lower requirements to join and allow volunteers to leave more easily for family or work reasons. All could face risks on the battlefield, and not just from bullets and bombs: A spokesman for Russia’s Defense Ministry, Igor Konashenkov, recently described the foreign volunteers as “mercenaries” who, if caught, could be “prosecuted as criminals.”

Legally, Americans can take part in another country’s war. But the Biden administration has urged U.S. military veterans and other Americans not to join the Ukrainian forces and to leave if they are already in the country.
Kelso, another volunteer, didn’t listen. The Montana-born construction worker left his job after seeing on the news “innocent civilians being directly targeted and attacked,” said the tall, slim former U.S. soldier, who was also in Adam’s group of foreign volunteers.

He said he had served in the U.S. Army for four years after high school, but had never seen combat. “This is my first war,” said Kelso.

He registered on the Ukrainian government’s recruitment website and filled out the forms. But he didn’t hear back for days. “I am not going to wait for an email response while there are people dying,” he said.

So, with some money saved, he paid $700 for a one-way flight to Poland. He carried warm clothes, a sleeping bag, medical supplies, family photos and a bulletproof vest a friend had donated. When he arrived at the border, he was connected to people with the international legion, he said.

“I do believe that God is on our side here,” said Kelso. “We are on the side of good. What the Russians brought is pure evil.”

Steps away stood other volunteers, among them a German who said he had served in Afghanistan for 412 months with the German military, part of the NATO security forces there, and a Scottish grandfather who said he was a British army veteran and that he had fought against the Islamic State in Syria with the YPG, or the People’s Protection Units, a mainly Kurdish militia.

Some have been waiting for nearly 10 days for their contracts and other paperwork to be approved.

Zelenskyy “said we would be welcome here and we would be armed and ready to go,” said Rob, 61, the grandfather from Edinburgh. “We should be at the front lines. There are young Ukrainians who are at this moment dying. And we are here.”

“I came here to fight for Ukraine,” Rob said.

Adam has not told his mother that he’s part of a fighting unit, despite her concerns about his well-being expressed in messages on WhatsApp.

“I don’t really need her to ruin my mental aspect right now,” said Adam. “I am here on a mission.”

Minutes later came the sound of an air raid siren, from an app on Adam’s phone, and a message came up in Ukrainian. “I can’t read it,” said Adam. “But I know there is a missile somewhere.”

On Saturday, when reached by phone, Adam was angry and emotional. Despite the legion’s assurances of proper vetting, he was now in the northern section of the capital with a territorial defense unit mostly composed of Ukrainian civilians turned militiamen.

Adam still hadn’t received a bulletproof vest, a helmet — or a weapon. And he could hear the sounds of shelling, he said.

“I have been here 15 days now and still nothing is happening,” he said in a phone interview. “I am not putting up with that.”

“They expect me to guard the base with no guns, no armor, no vest, no helmet and no knowledge of the Ukrainian language,” he continued. “It makes absolutely no sense. I am not going to stand around and get hit with a missile with no guns or nothing. If am going to die, I’d rather get to the front line and do that.”

So he was now trying to join another unit closer to the front line.

Adam said he intended to get as close as possible to the city of Irpin on Kyiv’s northern fringes, a volatile battle zone where three journalists were recently killed.

“I got all the way here by myself. I will be just fine,” he said.

No gun, no helmet, no action: The frustrations of some novice Americans who signed up to fight in Ukraine


----------



## KevinB

I really don’t understand some of the people who volunteered for combat duty who have zero military experience. There are a lot of roles that they could actually contribute.   While you want to be the best guy in a team, you kind of want to always be the worst guy on your team - so one is just worried about making the standards for the team, not having to drag folks along who are a menace to you and the rest of the team.  

Combat is no joke and having some assclown in the group ND’ing someone or drawing attention at the wrong moment can be final.


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> I really don’t understand some of the people who volunteered for combat duty who have zero military experience. There are a lot of roles that they could actually contribute.   While you want to be the best guy in a team, you kind of want to always be the worst guy on your team - so one is just worried about making the standards for the team, not having to drag folks along who are a menace to you and the rest of the team.
> 
> Combat is no joke and having some assclown in the group ND’ing someone or drawing attention at the wrong moment can be final.



There's probably an opportunity to NATO to set up some kind of training establishment in Poland, or another bordering NATO country, to accept volunteers like this, train them, and integrate them into fighting units more effectively.

At the same time, Ukrainians could use this base as a way to reconstitute units out of contact with the Russians.


----------



## MilEME09

daftandbarmy said:


> There's probably an opportunity to NATO to set up some kind of training establishment in Poland, or another bordering NATO country, to accept volunteers like this, train them, and integrate them into fighting units more effectively.
> 
> At the same time, Ukrainians could use this base as a way to reconstitute units out of contact with the Russians.


I would be surprised if Ukrainian casualties weren't being brought to Poland if the injury was serious enough. I agree training camps should be set up, and maybe some trained on western advanced kit, or grab people with flying experience and get them into polish migs to train to fly for Ukraine


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> I would be surprised if Ukrainian casualties weren't being brought to Poland if the injury was serious enough. I agree training camps should be set up, and maybe some trained on western advanced kit, or grab people with flying experience and get them into polish migs to train to fly for Ukraine


While I agree with you and @daftandbarmy it does risk one being viewed as party to the conflict.   Supply equipment sure, but training combatants for duty in another country is generally viewed differently.  

    I don’t have a problem with it, but I think NATO might blanch.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508203901199208449


----------



## Jarnhamar

HiTechComms said:


> After speaking with family members in Poland, a lot of people in Poland actually agree with the Russians and see the Polish government dragging us into a NATO war.


Don't suppose you have a screen shot of that email or conversation do you?


HiTechComms said:


> Oddly enough how Feminists are not outraged there is no female representatives


There's also some native reserves in Canada that still have to boil their water.


----------



## lenaitch

HiTechComms said:


> [snip]
> 
> If you think the Ukrainians are fighting them to a standstill I think that is just propaganda. Russians will crush the Ukrainian Army they will declaw the entire country, they had stated this as their purpose. This is why they are encircling them slowly.  Again you are projecting WESTERN strategic tactics on the Russians.


[/QUOTE]

Why?

Does the geographically largest country on the planet, with nuclear arms and a population of 145Mn feel so existentially threatened by a small neighbour of about 45Mn?  The point has been made in several posts that we westerners don't understand Russian logic and military tactics.  School us.  I would love this special military operation to make any sense on any level; the bereaved might as well. 



HiTechComms said:


> Azov battalion goons, well I have no empathy for Neo-Nazis.  Ukrainian Nazis butchered 60k Poles, we have a history with those aholes.


Is that different than the 22,000 Poles that the Russians murdered?









						Katyn massacre - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Haggis

KevinB said:


> I don’t have a problem with it, but I think NATO might continue to blanche.


FTFY.

#*N*o*A*ction*T*alk*O*nly


----------



## MilEME09

lenaitch said:


> Why?
> 
> 
> 
> Does the geographically largest country on the planet, with nuclear arms and a population of 145Mn feel so existentially threatened by a small neighbour of about 45Mn? The point has been made in several posts that we westerners don't understand Russian logic and military tactics. School us. I would love this special military operation to make any sense on any level; the bereaved might as well.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Is that different than the 22,000 Poles that the Russians murdered?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Katyn massacre - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org






Just to add to this, the Anov is far less far right then it was in 2014. Was many of its leaders far right and neo-nazi? When it first formed, yes, however when it was absorbed into the Ukrainian national guard, and later the Ukrainian army in 2015 they had to remove the radicals elements including those who's photos were widely circulated by Russian media. The modern Azov battalions, while they may have radical elements, just like the last Ukrainian election, represent less then 2% of the population.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ti35ls


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508003530640179201
> Little tone deaf


I feel for that poor kid. He’s got a long shitty life ahead of him in Russia with only one leg. The moment that camera goes off that bastard general won’t give him the time of day.


----------



## MilEME09




----------



## Czech_pivo

HiTechComms said:


> Russians don't need more then they already have they will take more if the Ukrainians don't surrender. The original purpose of the Russian invasion was such as that. According to Putin. Not that I believe him.
> 
> If they go to Moldova its a possibility, Ukraine wasn't ever going to surrender. The Russians will just use this opportunity to go further. Russia cares little for western Ukraine.
> 
> If you think the Ukrainians are fighting them to a standstill I think that is just propaganda. Russians will crush the Ukrainian Army they will declaw the entire country, they had stated this as their purpose. This is why they are encircling them slowly.  Again you are projecting WESTERN strategic tactics on the Russians.
> 
> Azov battalion goons, well I have no empathy for Neo-Nazis.  Ukrainian Nazis butchered 60k Poles, we have a history with those aholes.
> 
> Polish news media is starting to break the narrative
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507807336043356161
> Sorry its for Polish speakers.
> 
> After speaking with family members in Poland, a lot of people in Poland actually agree with the Russians and see the Polish government dragging us into a NATO war.
> 
> I am don't get outraged by casualties, War never changes. Young men always die for the old. They should have made 40+ year old fight wars.
> 
> Oddly enough how Feminists are not outraged there is no female representatives, I mean sure there might some female soldiers that die but it will be the vast minority. I guess Ukraine and Russia don't believe in GBA+.
> 
> Everyone calls me a out to lunch yet none of you actually put a rebuttal for the points I made.
> 
> Russia just announced Ruble being Pegged to gold. This might a good sign for everyone as it will prevent government just printing money. As I remember correctly Canada purged all its gold reserves, hindsight that might have been a terrible idea?
> 
> Be back in couple weeks to see how wrong I am about Russians.  Cheers.. Keep everything civil. Good discussion!


Funny, all the Poles that I talk with about things back in Poland talk about wanting Poland to go in and directly aid the Ukrainians and pay the Russians back for Katyn.
You must come from Lublin and be descended from those Lublin Poles that Stalin only dealt with. Answers a lot of my questions.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> Funny, all the Poles that I talk with about things back in Poland talk about wanting Poland to go in and directly aid the Ukrainians and pay the Russians back for Katyn.
> You must come from Lublin and be descended from those Lublin Poles that Stalin only dealt with. Answers a lot of my questions.


That's one potential answer.


----------



## HiTechComms

MilEME09 said:


> Here is a good thread about it
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508036906088636423











						Shocking Videos Allegedly Show Ukrainians Shooting And Torturing Russian POWs
					

Videos that surfaced late last night purportedly show members of the Ukrainian military shooting Russian POWs in the knees and beating them senseless. Several correspondents from around the world have called on the International Criminal Court, which Ukraine has invited into their country, to...




					www.thegatewaypundit.com
				












						Ukrainian doctor tells TV he gave order to CASTRATE Russian soldiers
					

Gennadiy Druzenko, 49, told Ukraine-24 channel: '[I gave] very strict orders to castrate all [captured Russian] men, because they are cockroaches, not people.'




					www.dailymail.co.uk


----------



## HiTechComms

Czech_pivo said:


> Funny, all the Poles that I talk with about things back in Poland talk about wanting Poland to go in and directly aid the Ukrainians and pay the Russians back for Katyn.
> You must come from Lublin and be descended from those Lublin Poles that Stalin only dealt with. Answers a lot of my questions.


They are long dead soviets and communists. I don't hate people for being people, especially that have done nothing to me. 

I say free helicopter rides to communists and bullet to the head to Nazis.

The russian alive today have done nothing to me or my kin. Hatred breeds hatred. I don't want to do anything with this conflict I am neutral.


----------



## HiTechComms

Why?

Does the geographically largest country on the planet, with nuclear arms and a population of 145Mn feel so existentially threatened by a small neighbour of about 45Mn?  The point has been made in several posts that we westerners don't understand Russian logic and military tactics.  School us.  I would love this special military operation to make any sense on any level; the bereaved might as well.


Is that different than the 22,000 Poles that the Russians murdered?









						Katyn massacre - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				



[/QUOTE]
Then please explain the WMD angle to me used by Americans in Iraq where they are thousands of kilometers away. Also now with Hunters laptop showing involvement in bio reasearch shit in Ukraine. Its almost like WMD research was actually happening in Ukraine.

Communists were as evil and as bad Nazis. Why dig up shit that is over and done all it is good for justification for more shit actions.

Funny how anglos love to lecture a Pole about our history.

Should I lecture you about Canadian residentials schools? Or Maybe how the Indian Act is total garbage that has impoverished the Native communities? I don't care aboutisms.

Russians are not targeting civilians because they are not making more enemies why would they kill people of their own ethnic background and language speakers. They are supposedly liberating believe it or not. I don't know enough and I am skeptical of both sides but it makes sense to me. Russian has killed a lot less civilians in a month then Americans did in Iraq and we know how well Iraq turned out.

Also explain why the Ukrainians put 60k troops on the border of Donbas before the Russians even started building up their troops. It seems to me no one can give an answer unless they wanted to go in and wipe out Donbas.

More and more footage of Refugees is starting to emerge of atrocities the Azov battalion was inflicting on ethnic Russian Ukrainians. Its a shit show I am not part of and I will stay Neutral. This is coming from Greek ethnics from Marupol and is on Greek TV.

Here is an American Journalist that has a good history of the shit that has been happening in Donbas


			https://www.youtube.com/c/PatrickLancasterNewsToday/videos
		


People went apoplectic when one guys showed up with a Swastika and Confederate flag during the truck protest and everyone went ape shit yet justifying that its ok for Neo Nazi being part of National defense of Ukraine and only being like 2% of a 250k army is OK. WTF is everyone smoking?!#@ ZERO is the correct amount of Neo-Nazis, REPEAT ZERO!. We wouldn't tolerate that shit here don't see why we tolerate that shit there.

This whole ordeal smells like shit, and it seems that Americans have a hand in this disaster. Neo-Cons are just pushing this shit war. We will see in the next 1-3 weeks what the results will be.


----------



## MilEME09

HiTechComms said:


> Shocking Videos Allegedly Show Ukrainians Shooting And Torturing Russian POWs
> 
> 
> Videos that surfaced late last night purportedly show members of the Ukrainian military shooting Russian POWs in the knees and beating them senseless. Several correspondents from around the world have called on the International Criminal Court, which Ukraine has invited into their country, to...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thegatewaypundit.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian doctor tells TV he gave order to CASTRATE Russian soldiers
> 
> 
> Gennadiy Druzenko, 49, told Ukraine-24 channel: '[I gave] very strict orders to castrate all [captured Russian] men, because they are cockroaches, not people.'
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.dailymail.co.uk


Again serious inconsistencies with that video, including the fact a point blank 7.62 would of done a lot more damage. There are two versions of the video circulated, why two? After original release a few keen eyes pointed out there was no muzzle flash, 24 hours later a new version began circulation with muzzle flash. This video is being picked apart right now and all indicators show its fake.

As for your second link, I am also extremely skeptical it is even remotely true given the red cross has full access to Ukrainian pow camps, and would of said something long ago


----------



## HiTechComms

MilEME09 said:


> Again serious inconsistencies with that video, including the fact a point blank 7.62 would of done a lot more damage. There are two versions of the video circulated, why two? After original release a few keen eyes pointed out there was no muzzle flash, 24 hours later a new version began circulation with muzzle flash. This video is being picked apart right now and all indicators show its fake.
> 
> As for your second link, I am also extremely skeptical it is even remotely true given the red cross has full access to Ukrainian pow camps, and would of said something long ago


When you empower phsycopathic behavior shit will happen. The Azov battalion is looking more like the bad guys to me. Lots of Ukrainian Neo Nazis are posting this shit on Telegram and TikTok.

Did you watch the Videos. They are disturbing and they are verified.

The 2nd link video was also verified by Daily Mail. Ukraine tried to walk it back but the cat was out of the bag.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508189157675388938
Simply this is very disturbing. Oh and these Videos came from Turkey of all places. This does require further investigation.

Yeah and this is why I am not picking either side in this conflict. There is more videos of despicable behavior but I don't think its appropriate to post them.  IE: Ukrainian soldiers calling dead Russian soldiers mom to gloat.

Any way this is bad blood. I cannot side with either side but to me its a bit horrifying sociopathic behavior.


----------



## KevinB

HiTechComms said:


> When you empower phsycopathic behavior shit will happen. The Azov battalion is looking more like the bad guys to me. Lots of Ukrainian Neo Nazis are posting this shit on Telegram and TikTok.
> 
> Did you watch the Videos. They are disturbing and they are verified.
> 
> The 2nd link video was also verified by Daily Mail. Ukraine tried to walk it back but the cat was out of the bag.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508189157675388938
> Simply this is very disturbing. Oh and these Videos came from Turkey of all places. This does require further investigation.
> 
> Yeah and this is why I am not picking either side in this conflict. There is more videos of despicable behavior but I don't think its appropriate to post them.  IE: Ukrainian soldiers calling dead Russian soldiers mom to gloat.
> 
> Any way this is bad blood. I cannot side with either side but to me its a bit horrifying sociopathic behavior.


Then how do you feel about the open source radio intercepts of Russian units bragging about civilian kills and holding competitions for who’s killed the most children etc 

There are multiple videos of Russian soldiers doing that as well.  Including those taken by Western press and shot at because they have video proof.  

Then let’s add the utter butchery of Russian forces shelling cities to dust - and shelling agreed upon humanitarian corridors.  

So forgive me if I think you are nothing but a slightly smarter version of the Soldier35 St Petersburg troll.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Then how do you feel about the open source radio intercepts of Russian units bragging about civilian kills and holding competitions for who’s killed the most children etc
> 
> There are multiple videos of Russian soldiers doing that as well.  Including those taken by Western press and shot at because they have video proof.
> 
> Then let’s add the utter butchery of Russian forces shelling cities to dust - and shelling agreed upon humanitarian corridors.
> 
> So forgive me if I think you are nothing but a slightly smarter version of the Soldier35 St Petersburg troll.


I agree with half of the highlighted section.


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> I agree with half of the highlighted section.


I did say slightly


----------



## Remius

Soldier35 said:


> The Russian army used new weapons for the first time in Ukraine, the work of the remote mining engineering system "Agriculture" was filmed near Kharkov. The video shows the moment of remote installation of minefields. The operation of this installation is similar to the work of the Grad MLRS. The difference is that instead of the warhead of a 122 mm rocket, they carry cassettes with mines. After the installation of mines, this territory is plotted on an electronic map, there is no need to carry out mine clearance manually, mines can be remotely deactivated.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Movement of a column of Russian military equipment of airborne units to the area of combat missions in the Kiev region



Ah yes, “area of combat”. Meaning to be used against innocent civilians.


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508309235859443718


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR mil int tote board ...

... and UKR's mil int boss says UKR doesn't just need fighters, it needs 5th gen fighters 








						Ukraine’s Intel Chief: We Have Sources in the Kremlin, but We Need Jets
					

Ukraine intelligence chief Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov says he has sources inside Putin’s Kremlin, but his nation’s air force needs fighter jets.




					coffeeordie.com


----------



## Jarnhamar

HiTechComms said:


> They are long dead soviets and communists. I don't hate people for being people, especially that have done nothing to me.
> 
> I say free helicopter rides to communists and bullet to the head to Nazis.
> 
> The russian alive today have done nothing to me or my kin. Hatred breeds hatred. I don't want to do anything with this conflict I am neutral.


That was a quick couple weeks. Posts didn't get the desired effects you wanted?


----------



## Remius

Jarnhamar said:


> That was a quick couple weeks. Posts didn't get the desired effects you wanted?


Russia is in damage control mode after pretty much admitting without admitting they won’t achieve their original goals.

Zelensky’s latest interview has just shaped the negotiations going forward.  

So I imagine the Russian PR machine is scrambling.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Mayor of Chernobyl workers’ town says Russian forces have cleared out​
Title from Globe & Mail article, unfortunately I don't have access over the paywall.  If anyone does, any chance of posting if its worthwhile?









						Mayor of Chernobyl workers’ town says Russian forces have cleared out
					

The Kyiv regional governor said on Saturday that Russian forces had taken control of the Ukrainian town of Slavutych




					www.theglobeandmail.com


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> Again serious inconsistencies with that video, including the fact a point blank 7.62 would of done a lot more damage. There are two versions of the video circulated, why two? After original release a few keen eyes pointed out there was no muzzle flash, 24 hours later a new version began circulation with muzzle flash. This video is being picked apart right now and all indicators show its fake.
> 
> As for your second link, I am also extremely skeptical it is even remotely true given the red cross has full access to Ukrainian pow camps, and would of said something long ago


As a member of the CAF, you should be very careful about so casually dismissing potential war crimes.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> Mayor of Chernobyl workers’ town says Russian forces have cleared out​
> Title from Globe & Mail article, unfortunately I don't have access over the paywall.  If anyone does, any chance of posting if its worthwhile?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Mayor of Chernobyl workers’ town says Russian forces have cleared out
> 
> 
> The Kyiv regional governor said on Saturday that Russian forces had taken control of the Ukrainian town of Slavutych
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theglobeandmail.com






> Russian forces have left the Ukrainian town of Slavutych, home to workers at the defunct nuclear plant of Chernobyl, after completing their task of surveying it, the mayor said early on Monday.
> 
> On Saturday, the Kyiv regional governor said Russian forces had taken control of the town just outside the safety exclusion zone around Chernobyl, the site of the world’s worst nuclear disaster in 1986, where Ukrainian staff still manage the plant.


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> As a member of the CAF, you should be very careful about so casually dismissing potential war crimes.


Casually? No in the contrary I find all a concern  however the fog of war clouds overtaking, so I do not take any claim at face value. Especially anything that circulated first in Russian social media before coming west.

I have some courses on open source Intel and vetting sources, while I am not an expert, a do have a few tools in the tool box to atleast know what to look fir when it comes to verifying things.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508441743745814533


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508440546523717649


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508327178630569987


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> As a member of the CAF, you should be very careful about so casually dismissing potential war crimes.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508205467826327556


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508163301963972611


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Its almost as if most people have no idea what the effects of a weapon on a human body looks like. 

There wouldn't be a leg left if they kneecapped a person with a 7.62.


----------



## Remius

rmc_wannabe said:


> Its almost as if most people have no idea what the effects of a weapon on a human body looks like.
> 
> There wouldn't be a leg left if they kneecapped a person with a 7.62.


Most people don’t so they can be forgiven for assuming something they’ve never seen before.


----------



## MilEME09

rmc_wannabe said:


> Its almost as if most people have no idea what the effects of a weapon on a human body looks like.
> 
> There wouldn't be a leg left if they kneecapped a person with a 7.62.


Not to mention at point blank the bullet would go through and through and hit anyone or thing behind.


----------



## daftandbarmy

rmc_wannabe said:


> Its almost as if most people have no idea what the effects of a weapon on a human body looks like.
> 
> There wouldn't be a leg left if they kneecapped a person with a 7.62.



Depends on the angle from which you shoot the knee cap.

Knee caps are actually pretty durable. Some use a 3/4 inch Black and Decker drill, which takes away all the bone material so the knee never heals.

But now we're getting into specific methodologies....


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

rmc_wannabe said:


> Its almost as if most people have no idea what the effects of a weapon on a human body looks like.
> 
> There wouldn't be a leg left if they kneecapped a person with a 7.62.


They are wearing layers of clothes, the effects wouldn't necessarily be readily apparent.  Especially with the only evidence being a grainy cellphone video.



MilEME09 said:


> Casually? No in the contrary I find all a concern  however the fog of war clouds overtaking, so I do not take any claim at face value. Especially anything that circulated first in Russian social media before coming west.
> 
> I have some courses on open source Intel and vetting sources, while I am not an expert, a do have a few tools in the tool box to atleast know what to look fir when it comes to verifying things.



I have no way of verifying your credentials.  The video; however, shouldn't be dismissed as a fake simply because a few people on Twitter say it's fake.

It also shouldn't be dismissed as a fake because it's crimes perpetrated by the side we want to win.  

I am glad the Ukrainian Government has come out and said they will be investigating.  That is very important as it's critical that they maintain the moral high ground at all costs in this War.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508460291595591695

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508472703661002752


----------



## RaceAddict

So... even their attempts at poisoning are indiscriminate and badly aimed?


----------



## Brad Sallows

One of the side effects of battle in areas where people live and work is the release of hazardous materials.  No point getting worked up over suggestions of exposure to toxins until something closer to proof of release of munitions is provided.


----------



## KevinB

rmc_wannabe said:


> Its almost as if most people have no idea what the effects of a weapon on a human body looks like.
> 
> There wouldn't be a leg left if they kneecapped a person with a 7.62.


7.62x39 Russian at that range will pretty much do a through and through, some bone spalling from the kneecap into the local area - but unless it hit at an extreme angle - it is just going to punch through and exit.
   Depending on exactly where it hit there may not be a lot of blood initially - and that would get trapped with the clothing for a time.

But there would be an impact with the ground below - and with the number of nerves around that area - you would have the victim howling like a castrated wolf.

I've viewed the video several times - and watched it frame by frame on iMovie - there is zero chance that was a real video, the editing was pretty amateur - I am pretty sure I could have done a better job.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508274710223720450
@JominioftheWest put out a really good update today.

Ukrainians are counter-attacking IVO Bucha, Makariv, Irpin and Hostomel.

Some indication that Russians appear to be withdrawing from Sumy, reason is unknown but the thinking is it could be to reinforce/refocus on operations elsewhere, possibly Cherniv.

Russians are digging in and laying minefields East of Kyiv.

In the South, continued fighting in Mariupol with the Russians slowly shrinking the pockets of resistance in the city.

Fighting on the outskirts of Izium as Russians now appear to hold the town.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508461653314134017


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508484422525456385


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508486925187170305


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508491774335070216


----------



## Remius

HOLY…


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508497477137227781


----------



## KevinB

Brad Sallows said:


> One of the side effects of battle in areas where people live and work is the release of hazardous materials.  No point getting worked up over suggestions of exposure to toxins until something closer to proof of release of munitions is provided.


Brad - those where off site Negotiators - only one real option there...


----------



## Brad Sallows

Sure, but from where?  (Obviously if no prolonged exposure to any battle area, source of toxins becomes suspicious.)


----------



## Blackadder1916

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508472703661002752



The use of poison/chemical weapons, especially directed to individuals, does not surprise me.  It's in the Russian playbook.  What does interest me about the story is Abramovich being there apparently on behalf of Ukraine.  It, however, isn't so far out of the realm of the expected.  The oligarchs see the writing on the wall and this one in particular (probably the most well known in the West) is likely setting the stage to be able to get his boats and footie team back after the war.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508517296138031104


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508196832136122381


----------



## RaceAddict

WSJ link (behind a paywall) about the poisoning: Roman Abramovich and Ukrainian Peace Negotiators Suffer Suspected Poisoning


----------



## Telegrammer

hey folks. 
not a troll and not a bot here.

CAF member, Russian-born, married to a Ukrainian (ethnic Russian from Kharkiv whose parents are from the breakaway parts of Donbass), with family and friends on the ground in UA right now.

i was active here a long time ago, and really don't have the time to actively participate anymore, but after a Major at my unit cornered me a couple of days ago and quizzed me for 20 minutes about my opinion about Ukraine... i contemplated whether it's a good idea, but is anyone here genuinely interested in hearing "the other side of the story" as in me sharing some stuff that may be different from what the local media and social media posts say?


----------



## Remius

Telegrammer said:


> hey folks.
> not a troll and not a bot here.
> 
> CAF member, Russian-born, married to a Ukrainian (ethnic Russian from Kharkiv whose parents are from the breakaway parts of Donbass), with family and friends on the ground in UA right now.
> 
> i was active here a long time ago, and really don't have the time to actively participate anymore, but after a Major at my unit cornered me a couple of days ago and quizzed me for 20 minutes about my opinion about Ukraine... i contemplated whether it's a good idea, but is anyone here genuinely interested in hearing "the other side of the story" as in me sharing some stuff that may be different from what the local media and social media posts say?


Who were you when you were active here a long time ago?


----------



## Jarnhamar

Remius said:


> Russia is in damage control mode after pretty much admitting without admitting they won’t achieve their original goals.


And Russian apologists are in going into overtime trying to deflect, obfuscate, and re-imagine facts.


----------



## Dana381

Remius said:


> HOLY…
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508497477137227781



Imagine the fear of the crew in the vehicle that wasn't hit.


----------



## Telegrammer

Remius said:


> Who were you when you were active here a long time ago?


I have reservations about disclosing personal details, but happy to answer questions related to the topic, if i can. Hope you understand.


----------



## Remius

Telegrammer said:


> I have reservations about disclosing personal details, but happy to answer questions related to the topic, if i can. Hope you understand.


Why would your former username here be an issue?


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508519883780284431


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508519883780284431


I wonder how those drafted veterans are going to like getting in T-54/55's and BTR-60's


----------



## Remius

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508519883780284431


Interesting to see them have a draft when all things are going to plan according to them.  I wonder how well this will be received.


----------



## Telegrammer

KevinB said:


> 7.62x39 Russian at that range will pretty much do a through and through


I believe, most modern AK rifle systems have long been operating with 5.45x39 ammunition, and 7.62x39 is mostly reserved for PKMs and other belt-fed systems.


----------



## KevinB

Telegrammer said:


> I believe, most modern AK rifle systems have long been operating with 5.45x39 ammunition, and 7.62x39 is mostly reserved for PKMs and other belt-fed systems.


PKM is 7.62x54R not 7.62x39 
AK-12's are 5.45x39, as as the AK-74 series - terminally they have very similar wound channels to 7.62x39 
  There are a lot of both 5.45 and 7.62x39 rifles in the war in Ukraine on both sides.

For purposes of the video - it wouldn't matter if it was 5.45x39 or 7.62x39


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> I wonder how those drafted veterans are going to like getting in T-54/55's and BTR-60's


T-34's, KV1's, KV2's and possibly some Tiger I's?  Do we see any 88mm Flak's in an anti-tank role before this is done, lol?


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> T-34's, KV1's, KV2's and possibly some Tiger I's?  Do we see any 88mm Flak's in an anti-tank role before this is done, lol?


I don't think there are any T-34 left, but one never knows - Russia had allegedly withdrawn the BTR-60's, T-62's and T-54/55's from service for scrap - and we have seen OS video on them going by train to the West - so...


----------



## Telegrammer

KevinB said:


> For purposes of the video - it wouldn't matter if it was 5.45x39 or 7.62x39


I guess the caliber is irrelevant, when there's a new video released today, with a detainee stabbed to death... pretty disturbing.


----------



## Good2Golf

Telegrammer said:


> hey folks.
> not a troll and not a bot here.
> 
> CAF member, Russian-born, married to a Ukrainian (ethnic Russian from Kharkiv whose parents are from the breakaway parts of Donbass), with family and friends on the ground in UA right now.
> 
> i was active here a long time ago, and really don't have the time to actively participate anymore, but after a Major at my unit cornered me a couple of days ago and quizzed me for 20 minutes about my opinion about Ukraine... i contemplated whether it's a good idea, but is anyone here genuinely interested in hearing "the other side of the story" as in me sharing some stuff that may be different from what the local media and social media posts say?





Telegrammer said:


> I have reservations about disclosing personal details, but happy to answer questions related to the topic, if i can. Hope you understand.



@Telegrammer - not an issue at all, provided your contributions follow the Site Guidelines. 

Milnet.ca Staff


----------



## KevinB

Telegrammer said:


> I guess the caliber is irrelevant, when there's a new video released today, with a detainee stabbed to death... pretty disturbing.


Almost as bad as the 5 people found tortured to death today by Russian Forces when the UA liberated another town...


----------



## Telegrammer

KevinB said:


> Almost as bad as the 5 people found tortured to death today by Russian Forces when the UA liberated another town...


unfortunately all such occurrences are effectively exploited for PSYOPS purposes by either side. Especially evident when you see the same incident in two opposing Telegram channels, saying that the "other side did this".


----------



## KevinB

Telegrammer said:


> unfortunately all such occurrences are effectively exploited for PSYOPS purposes by either side. Especially evident when you see the same incident in two opposing Telegram channels, saying that the "other side did this".


True - I just tend to believe the BBC a tad more than Russian state propaganda...


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508372662795579399


----------



## Telegrammer

KevinB said:


> True - I just tend to believe the BBC a tad more than Russian state propaganda...


I find The traditional media is too curated; IMO the most current and raw info is shared on Telegram, but you gotta speak the language.

Good T-channel aggregator from UA side: Реальная Война Новости Украина
Good T-channel aggregator from RU side: Сolonelcassad

The state propaganda is obv BS; and BBC has too few boots on the ground to have full SA; also it's drawing on UA official sources, which also have been observed using videogames footage and other "inaccuracies" to describe events.


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508542765436706828
So, if the PM was really serious about getting back into peacekeeping, filling the vacuum behind Wagner in Africa could have significant value pushing back Russian anti-democratic influences in this area.  Maybe France can reconsider its draw down in Mali.


----------



## Mills Bomb

Czech_pivo said:


> unfortunately I don't have access over the paywall.  If anyone does, any chance of posting if its worthwhile?​



Everyone here has access to all paywalled articles. 

Put this in front of the article's URL and you can bypass all paywalls:









						12ft – Hop any paywall
					

Show me a 10ft paywall, I’ll show you a 12ft ladder.




					12ft.io
				




Hit the "Like" button if I just saved you $4.99 / month, haha.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508545734999740424


----------



## Remius

Telegrammer said:


> I find The traditional media is too curated; IMO the most current and raw info is shared on Telegram, but you gotta speak the language.
> 
> Good T-channel aggregator from UA side: Реальная Война Новости Украина
> Good T-channel aggregator from RU side: Сolonelcassad
> 
> The state propaganda is obv BS; and BBC has too few boots on the ground to have full SA; also it's drawing on UA official sources, which also have been observed using videogames footage and other "inaccuracies" to describe events.


Telegram is dubious. And the state propaganda is currently using it to its advantage. 









						Telegram: The digital battlefront between Russia and Ukraine
					

A lot is riding on a platform the West doesn’t fully understand — as well as the man behind it.




					www.politico.eu
				




Given its history with far right groups and child porn…avoid.


----------



## Remius

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508545734999740424


The mayor there seems to think it’s fallen.


----------



## Kirkhill

Remius said:


> The mayor there seems to think it’s fallen.



I think the city administration, including the Mayor, evacuated some days ago and re-established themselves outside town leaving some 100-160,000 residents still trapped inside the city limits while Ukranian and Russian forces continue to fight.

The city may have fallen but the battlefield appears to still be active.


----------



## lenaitch

HiTechComms said:


> Why?
> 
> Does the geographically largest country on the planet, with nuclear arms and a population of 145Mn feel so existentially threatened by a small neighbour of about 45Mn?  The point has been made in several posts that we westerners don't understand Russian logic and military tactics.  School us.  I would love this special military operation to make any sense on any level; the bereaved might as well.
> 
> 
> Is that different than the 22,000 Poles that the Russians murdered?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Katyn massacre - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org


Then please explain the WMD angle to me used by Americans in Iraq where they are thousands of kilometers away. Also now with Hunters laptop showing involvement in bio reasearch shit in Ukraine. Its almost like WMD research was actually happening in Ukraine.

Communists were as evil and as bad Nazis. Why dig up shit that is over and done all it is good for justification for more shit actions.

Funny how anglos love to lecture a Pole about our history.

Should I lecture you about Canadian residentials schools? Or Maybe how the Indian Act is total garbage that has impoverished the Native communities? I don't care aboutisms.

Russians are not targeting civilians because they are not making more enemies why would they kill people of their own ethnic background and language speakers. They are supposedly liberating believe it or not. I don't know enough and I am skeptical of both sides but it makes sense to me. Russian has killed a lot less civilians in a month then Americans did in Iraq and we know how well Iraq turned out.

Also explain why the Ukrainians put 60k troops on the border of Donbas before the Russians even started building up their troops. It seems to me no one can give an answer unless they wanted to go in and wipe out Donbas.

More and more footage of Refugees is starting to emerge of atrocities the Azov battalion was inflicting on ethnic Russian Ukrainians. Its a shit show I am not part of and I will stay Neutral. This is coming from Greek ethnics from Marupol and is on Greek TV.

Here is an American Journalist that has a good history of the shit that has been happening in Donbas


			https://www.youtube.com/c/PatrickLancasterNewsToday/videos
		


People went apoplectic when one guys showed up with a Swastika and Confederate flag during the truck protest and everyone went ape shit yet justifying that its ok for Neo Nazi being part of National defense of Ukraine and only being like 2% of a 250k army is OK. WTF is everyone smoking?!#@ ZERO is the correct amount of Neo-Nazis, REPEAT ZERO!. We wouldn't tolerate that shit here don't see why we tolerate that shit there.

This whole ordeal smells like shit, and it seems that Americans have a hand in this disaster. Neo-Cons are just pushing this shit war. We will see in the next 1-3 weeks what the results will be.
[/QUOTE]

Ok, I am completely missing your linkage the WMD issue in the Middle East but, whatever.

You keep saying that you are neutral on all of this.  It's starting to sound like not so much.

Way back in the beginning, you mentioned that you were in the pipeline for recruitment.  While privately held views are just that, if you are now in the Crown's employ, you might want to think about who's side you are on should NATO push come to shove.


----------



## Jarnhamar

lenaitch said:


> You keep saying that you are neutral on all of this.  It's starting to sound like not so much.



_I'm not racist but_.. vibes


----------



## Colin Parkinson

lenaitch said:


> Then please explain the WMD angle to me used by Americans in Iraq where they are thousands of kilometers away. Also now with Hunters laptop showing involvement in bio reasearch shit in Ukraine. Its almost like WMD research was actually happening in Ukraine.
> 
> Communists were as evil and as bad Nazis. Why dig up shit that is over and done all it is good for justification for more shit actions.
> 
> Funny how anglos love to lecture a Pole about our history.
> 
> Should I lecture you about Canadian residentials schools? Or Maybe how the Indian Act is total garbage that has impoverished the Native communities? I don't care aboutisms.
> 
> Russians are not targeting civilians because they are not making more enemies why would they kill people of their own ethnic background and language speakers. They are supposedly liberating believe it or not. I don't know enough and I am skeptical of both sides but it makes sense to me. Russian has killed a lot less civilians in a month then Americans did in Iraq and we know how well Iraq turned out.
> 
> Also explain why the Ukrainians put 60k troops on the border of Donbas before the Russians even started building up their troops. It seems to me no one can give an answer unless they wanted to go in and wipe out Donbas.
> 
> More and more footage of Refugees is starting to emerge of atrocities the Azov battalion was inflicting on ethnic Russian Ukrainians. Its a shit show I am not part of and I will stay Neutral. This is coming from Greek ethnics from Marupol and is on Greek TV.
> 
> Here is an American Journalist that has a good history of the shit that has been happening in Donbas
> 
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/c/PatrickLancasterNewsToday/videos
> 
> 
> 
> People went apoplectic when one guys showed up with a Swastika and Confederate flag during the truck protest and everyone went ape shit yet justifying that its ok for Neo Nazi being part of National defense of Ukraine and only being like 2% of a 250k army is OK. WTF is everyone smoking?!#@ ZERO is the correct amount of Neo-Nazis, REPEAT ZERO!. We wouldn't tolerate that shit here don't see why we tolerate that shit there.
> 
> This whole ordeal smells like shit, and it seems that Americans have a hand in this disaster. Neo-Cons are just pushing this shit war. We will see in the next 1-3 weeks what the results will be.



[/QUOTE]
I read the Hans Blix reports he submitted to the UNSC, even he believed that Saddam was hiding something, turned out to be such a good con job that even his own generals believed he was going to use WMD's.

Bio research labs in a country with a large agricultural industry is not exactly new and they research stuff like Anthrax on a regular basis as well.


----------



## Remius

I read the Hans Blix reports he submitted to the UNSC, even he believed that Saddam was hiding something, turned out to be such a good con job that even his own generals believed he was going to use WMD's.

Bio research labs in a country with a large agricultural industry is not exactly new and they research stuff like Anthrax on a regular basis as well.
[/QUOTE]

Well he used them before and he wasn’t exactly denying he had them.  And he kept playing the “maybe I do, maybe I don’t game”.   And his bluff was called.

And we know Russia has used WMD before as well.  Desperation will do that.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Remius said:


> And he kept playing the “maybe I do, maybe I don’t game”.


That went over like a GI Jane joke at the Oscars.


----------



## Kilted

Jarnhamar said:


> That went over like a GI Jane joke at the Oscars.


I was wondering when that was going to come up, although I thought that it would be in its own thread.


----------



## Haggis

McG said:


> So, if the PM was really serious about getting back into peacekeeping, filling the vacuum behind Wagner in Africa could have significant value pushing back Russian anti-democratic influences in this area.  Maybe France can reconsider its draw down in Mali.


Back in 2008 when Russia conducted the "peace enforcement operation" in the Republic of Georgia, peacekeepers were to be deployed following the ceasefire.  The primary Russian condition is that the peacekeepers would NOT come from NATO nations.


----------



## MilEME09

Haggis said:


> Back in 2008 when Russia conducted the "peace enforcement operation" in the Republic of Georgia, peacekeepers were to be deployed following the ceasefire.  The primary Russian condition is that the peacekeepers would NOT come from NATO nations.


I'm surprised Georgia isn't moving into South Ossetia right now, the power vacuum left from this war is going to cause massive instability across Asia, Europe and Africa. Wagner being very weak in Africa is going to cause a lot more Islamists to go un checked for example


----------



## Altair

lenaitch said:


> Then please explain the WMD angle to me used by Americans in Iraq where they are thousands of kilometers away. Also now with Hunters laptop showing involvement in bio reasearch shit in Ukraine. Its almost like WMD research was actually happening in Ukraine.
> 
> Communists were as evil and as bad Nazis. Why dig up shit that is over and done all it is good for justification for more shit actions.
> 
> Funny how anglos love to lecture a Pole about our history.
> 
> Should I lecture you about Canadian residentials schools? Or Maybe how the Indian Act is total garbage that has impoverished the Native communities? I don't care aboutisms.
> 
> Russians are not targeting civilians because they are not making more enemies why would they kill people of their own ethnic background and language speakers. They are supposedly liberating believe it or not. I don't know enough and I am skeptical of both sides but it makes sense to me. Russian has killed a lot less civilians in a month then Americans did in Iraq and we know how well Iraq turned out.
> 
> Also explain why the Ukrainians put 60k troops on the border of Donbas before the Russians even started building up their troops. It seems to me no one can give an answer unless they wanted to go in and wipe out Donbas.
> 
> More and more footage of Refugees is starting to emerge of atrocities the Azov battalion was inflicting on ethnic Russian Ukrainians. Its a shit show I am not part of and I will stay Neutral. This is coming from Greek ethnics from Marupol and is on Greek TV.
> 
> Here is an American Journalist that has a good history of the shit that has been happening in Donbas
> 
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/c/PatrickLancasterNewsToday/videos
> 
> 
> 
> People went apoplectic when one guys showed up with a Swastika and Confederate flag during the truck protest and everyone went ape shit yet justifying that its ok for Neo Nazi being part of National defense of Ukraine and only being like 2% of a 250k army is OK. WTF is everyone smoking?!#@ ZERO is the correct amount of Neo-Nazis, REPEAT ZERO!. We wouldn't tolerate that shit here don't see why we tolerate that shit there.
> 
> This whole ordeal smells like shit, and it seems that Americans have a hand in this disaster. Neo-Cons are just pushing this shit war. We will see in the next 1-3 weeks what the results will be.





> Ok, I am completely missing your linkage the WMD issue in the Middle East but, whatever.
> 
> You keep saying that you are neutral on all of this.  It's starting to sound like not so much.
> 
> Way back in the beginning, you mentioned that you were in the pipeline for recruitment.  While privately held views are just that, if you are now in the Crown's employ, you might want to think about who's side you are on should NATO push come to shove.


Neutral, yet only posts pro Russian stuff and anti Ukraine stuff. 

Hmmmm....


----------



## Altair

Kilted said:


> I was wondering when that was going to come up, although I thought that it would be in its own thread.


Nobody cares about either side of the slap. 

Also, it was a slap. Punch of GTFO


----------



## MilEME09

NATO training UA in Poland?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508590253388578823


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> NATO training IA in Poland?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508590253388578823


Shouldn't that be up to Poland to announce?  Or at least be a joint announcement?

Edit: Maybe Ukraine should have been invited to the party as well?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Mills Bomb said:


> Everyone here has access to all paywalled articles.
> 
> Put this in front of the article's URL and you can bypass almost all paywalls:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 12ft – Hop any paywall
> 
> 
> Show me a 10ft paywall, I’ll show you a 12ft ladder.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 12ft.io
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hit the "Like" button if I just saved you $4.99 / month, haha.


FTFY - but that doesn't make it any less useful a tool in most cases.

Also, another alternative is to try archiving the paywalled link using this site - in some cases where 12 Foot Wall doesn't work (like the Wall St. Journal), this appears to show the whole article.


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> Shouldn't that be up to Poland to announce?  Or at least be a joint announcement?
> 
> Edit: Maybe Ukraine should have been invited to the party as well?


Nap guy woke up feisty after the nap today it seems.  I guess #46 is channeling his inner #45


----------



## The Bread Guy

One Latvian military psychologist's take


> *If the war in Ukraine goes on for longer, more and more Russian troops will lose their morale, surrender or run off, said Latvian National Armed Forces chief psychologist, certified military and clinical psychologist Vilnis Čerņavskis in an interview to Latvian Ministry of Defence internet portal sargs.lv.*
> 
> Looking at the morale of Russian occupation forces, the psychologist said not all Russian troops knew where they were headed and what their objectives are when they were sent to Ukraine. This is true for the troops that are, according to information available in the information space, troops under compulsory military service who have never performed military functions, have never been in hot spots and are very young ....


We'll see ...


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> One Latvian military psychologist's take
> 
> We'll see ...


If you don’t know where you are, you can’t know where to go…

 I suspect trapped it a good word to describe some Russian conscripts.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508596815842660361


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508473361453576199


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508527343576530952


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508518996274040832


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> Nap guy woke up feisty after the nap today it seems.  I guess #46 is channeling his inner #45


Kinda missing the days he used to hang out in his basement.


----------



## Portnord

At some point I wonder what difference it is supposed to make whether Russians commit war crimes or Ukrainians commit war crimes. There are hundreds of thousands of combatants engaged. I expect they both are, it's a matter for their command chain or international courts if those are unwilling.

At the end of the day cities are being destroyed and people are dying in Ukraine, not Russia. That is an objective fact. And that was a choice made by the Russian leadership, also an objective fact. Everything happening now is a direct consequence of that.

It's pretty clear by now it's just a run of the mill grab as much territory or power invasion like the good old days of the 11th century. I'm more concerned whether the world is ok with this again, as opposed to the twitterverse 'revelation' that moral boundaries start sliding when people start killing each other.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

@lenaitch @Remius  The real reason Saddam's WMD business was a big bust wasn't because the Iraqi's didn't have any, it was because of who gave them the WMDs in the first place and why they were given them.

😉


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508610964907823109


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> @lenaitch @Remius  The real reason Saddam's WMD business was a big bust wasn't because the Iraqi's didn't have any, it was because of who gave them the WMDs in the first place and why they were given them.
> 
> 😉


We watched a bunch of them go into Syria. 
  We still recovered a lot of weird stuff. Chem and Bio and a bunch of Yellowcake. 

I remember moving them to BIAP to be articled by UN folks in hazmat suits and then get loaded into C-17’s to leave. Which made me in my nomex CQB suit wondering why we didn’t need protection… 

I kept waiting for McCain to drop the ‘bomb’ during the debates with Obama - as both had been cleared at what TF McCall had found.


----------



## Lumber

Portnord said:


> At some point I wonder what difference it is supposed to make whether Russians commit war crimes or Ukrainians commit war crimes. There are hundreds of thousands of combatants engaged. I expect they both are, it's a matter for their command chain or international courts if those are unwilling.
> 
> At the end of the day cities are being destroyed and people are dying in Ukraine, not Russia. That is an objective fact. And that was a choice made by the Russian leadership, also an objective fact. Everything happening now is a direct consequence of that.
> 
> It's pretty clear by now it's just a run of the mill grab as much territory or power invasion like the good old days of the 11th century. I'm more concerned whether the world is ok with this again, as opposed to the twitterverse 'revelation' that moral boundaries start sliding when people start killing each other.


Agreed. All this bickering over who is worse is academic unless there was widespread genocide or rape à la Nanking. So far, from what _we've been told_, there's just about as much murder, rape, pillaging, and debauchery that I would have expected in a war this size. That's highly cynical, I know, and I'm not sure if that that says more about me, or more about the world...

Anyway, none of this would have happened if it wasn't for Russia choosing to invade, so I'll place the overall blame on them.


----------



## Jarnhamar

HiTechComms said:


> Russians are not targeting civilians





KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508527343576530952



Not sure what this kid is complaining about; at least she didn't have an armored vehicle serve towards the car she was in. Sheesh.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

KevinB said:


> We watched a bunch of them go into Syria.
> We still recovered a lot of weird stuff. Chem and Bio and a bunch of Yellowcake.
> 
> I remember moving them to BIAP to be articled by UN folks in hazmat suits and then get loaded into C-17’s to leave. Which made me in my nomex CQB suit wondering why we didn’t need protection…
> 
> I kept waiting for McCain to drop the ‘bomb’ during the debates with Obama - as both had been cleared at what TF McCall had found.


Well I mean we helped the Baathists procure the weapons.  I think the determination was made that it would be worse if we proudly displayed bombs with big "made in the USA" stickers still on them than if we just said "nothing to see here, mea culpa!"


----------



## TacticalTea

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508529126067560453
ISW recognizes Ukrainian victory in Irpin. Battle of Kyiv might end soon; last immediate ground threat lying to the north-east, close to Brovary.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508625098948947972

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508627069072293889


----------



## Portnord

Lumber said:


> Agreed. All this bickering over who is worse is academic unless there was widespread genocide or rape à la Nanking. So far, from what _we've been told_, there's just about as much murder, rape, pillaging, and debauchery that I would have expected in a war this size. That's highly cynical, I know, and I'm not sure if that that says more about me, or more about the world...
> 
> Anyway, none of this would have happened if it wasn't for Russia choosing to invade, so I'll place the overall blame on them.


I don't think you're being cynical... it's important to understand the limits of control on violence or how emotion feeds it. I expect a couple people on this board have studied that a little more than casually. 

I've never felt like war was a moral decision as much as a practical one, like where to set up a backburn or firebreak to stop the real fire.


----------



## Zipperhead99

A one month into the conflict analysis









						Ukraine War: Lessons Learned One Month On | Geopolitical Monitor
					

The war in Ukraine has now lasted one month. Even though a thick fog of propaganda spreads over the events, several lessons can be gleaned from the course of the battle so far.



					www.geopoliticalmonitor.com


----------



## NavyShooter

Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map | Flightradar24
					

View flight CW12 from Lodz on Flightradar24




					www.flightradar24.com
				




Interesting, there's an F-15E Strike Eagle currently flying over Rzesow.  Wonder who he's flying with?

Looks like there's a KC-135R Stratotanker on the way there too.

Not surprised by the presence and activity, just interesting to see it on Flightradar24...open source.


----------



## Prairie canuck

NavyShooter said:


> Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map | Flightradar24
> 
> 
> View flight CW12 from Lodz on Flightradar24
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.flightradar24.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Interesting, there's an F-15E Strike Eagle currently flying over Rzesow.  Wonder who he's flying with?
> 
> Looks like there's a KC-135R Stratotanker on the way there too.
> 
> Not surprised by the presence and activity, just interesting to see it on Flightradar24...open source.



Definitely trying to be "seen"


----------



## MilEME09

NavyShooter said:


> Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map | Flightradar24
> 
> 
> View flight CW12 from Lodz on Flightradar24
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.flightradar24.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Interesting, there's an F-15E Strike Eagle currently flying over Rzesow.  Wonder who he's flying with?
> 
> Looks like there's a KC-135R Stratotanker on the way there too.
> 
> Not surprised by the presence and activity, just interesting to see it on Flightradar24...open source.


There is a B-52 in the area as well


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506988213637890048


----------



## Skysix

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506988213637890048


There are likely more 'fascists' or 'nazis' or 'neo-nazis' in the US Military on a proportional level than in the Ukrainian Military.


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508678736866156544


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR mil int's tote board for this morning ...


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508390743228006400


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508688638242181127


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508715788672417794


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508690357894144002


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508728902474153990

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508508951142297600


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508656998983868418


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508701338045239297


----------



## WLSC

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508701338045239297


Darth Putin make me think more and more about getting a Twitter account 😁


----------



## KevinB

FusMR said:


> Darth Putin make me think more and more about getting a Twitter account 😁


He’s (they?) are epic.


----------



## WLSC

KevinB said:


> He’s (they?) are epic.


Rarely missing the good sarcastic mark.  That collective he, make my day, every day since de beginning of that 3 days war


----------



## SupersonicMax

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508656998983868418


It’s a Wingman (CW12).  He must be lost.


----------



## KevinB

SupersonicMax said:


> It’s a Wingman (CW12).  He must be lost.


He was escorting a BUFF. 
   It was also squawking.


----------



## suffolkowner

The Ukrainians being able to counterattack in the Sumy area has me wondering what the Russian air force is doing. You cant get closer to Russia than that


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> The Ukrainians being able to counterattack in the Sumy area has me wondering what the Russian air force is doing. You cant get closer to Russia than that


Bear net is pretty active, pretty easy to track their air force because they broadcast in the clear. They are also loosing pilots every day  gotta remember Russia may have thousands of aircraft, but how many experienced pilots do they actually have?


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> Bear net is pretty active, pretty easy to track their air force because they broadcast in the clear. They are also loosing pilots every day  gotta remember Russia may have thousands of aircraft, but how many experienced pilots do they actually have?


Hopefully less and less each and every day.


----------



## RaceAddict

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508390743228006400



Ottawa?


----------



## Kilted

RaceAddict said:


> Ottawa?


Which riding belongs to Justin Trudeau ?


----------



## Quirky

RaceAddict said:


> Ottawa?


Everything below the 50th.


----------



## armrdsoul77

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508715788672417794


Fired in the head?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest on what Ukraine wants when it says "security guarantees" ....


> ... the future treaty must contain a provision according to which within three days after the start of the war, aggression, military operation, any disguised, hybrid war against Ukraine, the guarantor countries hold consultations, after which they are legally obliged to provide military assistance to our country, in particular in the form of armaments and the closure of the skies.
> 
> It is suggested that the guarantors will be permanent members of the UN Security Council: the United States, Great Britain, France, China and the Russian Federation, but "this should be discussed separately." Ukraine also wants to see Turkey, Germany, Canada, Italy, Poland and Israel among the guarantors. In addition, it is offered to provide for the free accession of other guarantors to the treaty ...


A bit more nitty-gritty in the link (to UKR Pres info-machine)


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

armrdsoul77 said:


> Fired in the head?









Also Putin has recruited a new "flock" of loyal General Officers:


----------



## SupersonicMax

KevinB said:


> He was escorting a BUFF.
> It was also squawking.


As a flight lead, I keep blaming saying the wingman was lost


----------



## Good2Golf

SupersonicMax said:


> As a flight lead, I keep blaming saying the wingman was lost


Them with the W80-1 gets to say who’s lost or not…


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506636785836830726


----------



## KevinB

It had one job -- and it failed...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508840716830711811


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508838234746499073


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508495023029030912


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Fun job


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508808789793054720


----------



## NavyShooter

Colin Parkinson said:


> Fun job
> View attachment 69779


Note that the caps are still on the horns.  There was a discussion thread about this mine elsewhere - it is an early model Russian type mine, however, it has FRESHLY PAINTED Ukrainian markings on it...someone trying to make it look like a false-flag perhaps?

Also, in the Railway derailment discussion on Twitter, there's a comment that I loved:

"Is there any way to route the supplies to the Ukrainians?"

"YES - GIVE IT TO THE RUSSIANS."

I snickered out loud at that one...


----------



## Spencer100

He added T-34 to the tote board LOL


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508790827757326341


----------



## Retired AF Guy

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508838234746499073


Didn't anyone teach the Russians about not saluting on the battlefield!


----------



## WLSC

This sum up the last days🍻


----------



## Kirkhill

A report from the Daily Kos on the 4th Guards Tank Division and the fight for Trostyanets.

It doesn't seem likely that 4 GTD will be back in the game any time soon.









						Ukraine update: The story of Russia's 4th Guards Tank Division and Ukraine's biggest victory to date
					

Russia’s 4th Guards Tank Division (GTD) was considered one of it’s “elite” units, headquartered near Moscow. The division's units participated in the First Chechen War of 1994-1996, and personnel took part in peacekeeping operations in South Ossetia...




					www.dailykos.com


----------



## suffolkowner

In doing a bit of digging I came across this 

"In the short term there are currently *33,000* Tube-launched, Optically tracked, Wireguided (TOW) missiles in war stocks which are predicted to last out until 2025" in this paper



			https://www.cfc.forces.gc.ca/259/290/318/192/tarrantr.pdf
		


seems like an opportunity to help out in Ukraine more unless we have divested these as well as the Eryk???


----------



## HiTechComms

Jarnhamar said:


> That was a quick couple weeks. Posts didn't get the desired effects you wanted?


Always said I was Neutral. My stance never changed.


----------



## SeaKingTacco

suffolkowner said:


> In doing a bit of digging I came across this
> 
> "In the short term there are currently *33,000* Tube-launched, Optically tracked, Wireguided (TOW) missiles in war stocks which are predicted to last out until 2025" in this paper
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cfc.forces.gc.ca/259/290/318/192/tarrantr.pdf
> 
> 
> 
> seems like an opportunity to help out in Ukraine more unless we have divested these as well as the Eryk???


There is no way in the world that Canada has 33,000 TOW missiles in storage…


----------



## suffolkowner

SeaKingTacco said:


> There is no way in the world that Canada has 33,000 TOW missiles in storage…


maybe an extra zero snuck in there by mistake?


----------



## MJP

SeaKingTacco said:


> There is no way in the world that Canada has 33,000 TOW missiles in storage…


LOL agreed the AT world would be consumed just doing maint on TOW! I suspect that there is a zero added by accident, but even then I doubt we have 3K+ missiles


----------



## Czech_pivo

We


SeaKingTacco said:


> There is no way in the world that Canada has 33,000 TOW missiles in storage…


Well, I quickly found an article that doesn't talk about numbers but says 2 interesting points, paraphrasing:

1) The CAF had sold off most of its (TOW) missiles and put into storage a few of the anti-tank weapons"

2) Brig.-Gen. D. M.,  confirmed _*the service is re-introducing the TOW system to all regular force infantry battalions.*_

“Each battalion will receive its".. allotment of TOW's, with all systems rolled out and available.. "by summer 2017,” “We are not purchasing new systems at this time, but rather re-introducing what we had placed into preservation.”

Question: Did this occur?  Did we re-introduce TOW's back into the battalions in 2017 or is this a load of crap?


NOTE: I cannot post said article or link.


----------



## MJP

Czech_pivo said:


> We
> 
> Well, I quickly found an article that doesn't talk about numbers but says 2 interesting points, paraphrasing:
> 
> 1) The CAF had sold off most of its (TOW) missiles and put into storage a few of the anti-tank weapons"
> 
> 2) Brig.-Gen. D. M.,  confirmed _*the service is re-introducing the TOW system to all regular force infantry battalions.*_
> 
> “Each battalion will receive its".. allotment of TOW's, with all systems rolled out and available.. "by summer 2017,” “We are not purchasing new systems at this time, but rather re-introducing what we had placed into preservation.”
> 
> Question: Did this occur?  Did we re-introduce TOW's back into the battalions in 2017 or is this a load of crap?
> 
> 
> NOTE: I cannot post said article or link.


Yes TOW was re-rolled back out to Reg F Infantry Bns (and a few PRes ones IIRC as part of STAR)


----------



## Jarnhamar

HiTechComms said:


> Always said I was Neutral. My stance never changed.


You also said you'd be back in a couple weeks and started posting hours later.

Sometimes what people say doesn't match their intentions.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Czech_pivo said:
			
		

> “Each battalion will receive its".. allotment of TOW's, with all systems rolled out and available.. "by summer 2017,” “We are not purchasing new systems at this time, but rather re-introducing what we had placed into preservation.”



In my opinion, outside of guerilla warfare, TOW needs to be mounted to be effective. 

We can send them to a battalion but employing them by cramming them in a G-Wagon to set up and take down isn't a great option.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Jarnhamar said:


> In my opinion, outside of guerilla warfare, TOW needs to be mounted to be effective.
> 
> We can send them to a battalion but employing them by cramming them in a G-Wagon to set up and take down isn't a great option.



Why it just issue the infantry a bunch of tractors ?  

Seems to be the queen of the battlefield in Ukraine.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Not sure if anyone has ever heard of this guy on YouTube - “Bald and Bankrupt” - he’s a Brit who travels mostly around the old SU, well off the beaten path looking for old quirky Soviet things. Look him up and watch a few of his videos.


----------



## Spencer100

Czech_pivo said:


> Not sure if anyone has ever heard of this guy on YouTube - “Bald and Bankrupt” - he’s a Brit who travels mostly around the old SU, well off the beaten path looking for old quirky Soviet things. Look him up and watch a few of his videos.


I have enjoyed his videos.  He goes to Cuba and Africa too.


----------



## Kirkhill

Video purporting to show the Ukrainians taking back the village of Vil'khivka near Kharkiv


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tra7q0


----------



## Lumber

I really like this guy :


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508923062842019842


----------



## Kirkhill

US assesses its assessments









						Top US general in Europe says there 'could be' an intelligence gap in US that caused US to overestimate Russia's capabilities
					

The top US general in Europe said Tuesday there "could be" a gap in US intelligence gathering that caused the US to overestimate Russia's capability and underestimate Ukraine's defensive abilities before Russia attacked Ukraine.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## SeaKingTacco

Kirkhill said:


> US assesses its assessments
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Top US general in Europe says there 'could be' an intelligence gap in US that caused US to overestimate Russia's capabilities
> 
> 
> The top US general in Europe said Tuesday there "could be" a gap in US intelligence gathering that caused the US to overestimate Russia's capability and underestimate Ukraine's defensive abilities before Russia attacked Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com


Ya think?


----------



## Kirkhill

How can you fight without a year and a half of basic training and learning which colour socks are required?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Lumber said:


> I really like this guy :
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508923062842019842


This is the level of trolling I wish all Canadian  diplomats to aspire to.


----------



## Jarnhamar

SeaKingTacco said:


> Ya think?



I don't know, is there a pattern?

Misjudging ISIS
Misjudging the Taliban 2.0
Misjudging Russia


----------



## TacticalTea

Практичні поради - Центр національного спротиву
					

Progressively maintain extensive infomediaries via extensible niches. Dramatically disseminate standardized metrics after resource leveling processes. Objectively pursue diverse catalysts for change for services.




					sprotyv.mod.gov.ua
				




Interesting stuff on there, from Ukraine's National Resistance Centre.



(Yes, they use Fallout's Vault Boy!  )


----------



## The Bread Guy

A few highlights from RUS's DefMin's conference call to commanders today (safe PDF of official English text attached)


> ... At the beginning of the meeting, the head of the defence department spoke about the course of a special military operation of the Russian Armed Forces on the territory of Ukraine. According to him, in general, the main tasks of the first stage of the operation have been completed. The combat potential of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been significantly reduced, which makes it possible to focus the main attention and main  efforts on achieving the main goal - the liberation of Donbass.
> 
> "Significant damage has been inflicted on the Armed Forces of Ukraine," Sergei Shoigu said. - Air supremacy has been won. The air force and the air defence system have been practically destroyed. Of the 152 aircraft that were in the Armed Forces of Ukraine before the start of the operation, 123 were destroyed, 77 out of 149 helicopters, 152 out of 180 long- and medium-range air defence systems. The naval forces of  the country ceased to exist. All formations of land and airborne assault troops suffered significant losses."
> 
> "We are monitoring the statements of the leaders of individual NATO countries about their intention to supply aircraft and air defence systems to Ukraine," the minister said. – If they are implemented, we will respond adequately. We consider the position of the West, which supplies lethal weapons to Ukraine, irresponsible.
> Its uncontrolled distribution to the population and mercenaries only aggravates the situation and in the future may pose a threat to the Europeans themselves ...





> ... Targeted actions to track and destroy foreign mercenaries are continuing. As a result of high-precision weapons strikes on mercenary training centers, as well as combat losses, a decrease in their number on the territory of Ukraine is recorded. Over the past two weeks, more than five hundred mercenaries have left the country and about six hundred more have been eliminated ...





> ... In accordance with the Presidential Decree, 134 and a half thousand people will be sent to the Armed Forces and other structures where military service is provided. This is less than it was drafted for in the spring of 2021. The first dispatches of conscripts to the place of service are instructed to begin in the third decade of May.
> 
> "Despite the decrease in the incidence of coronavirus, I ask you to continue the complex of anti-epidemic  measures for conscripted servicemen," the minister said. "Most of the servicemen will undergo professional training in training centers for three to five months. I emphasize that conscripts will not be sent to any conflict
> zones. All servicemen of the spring draft of last year will be discharged into the reserve after the expiration of their service and sent to their places of residence." ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

We'll see ...








						Relief for Kyiv? Russia vows to scale back near the capital
					

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russia announced Tuesday it will significantly scale back military operations near Ukraine’s capital and a northern city, as the outlines of a possible deal to end the grinding war came into view at the latest round of talks.




					apnews.com
				











						Russia says it will reduce military activity around Kyiv
					

Russia says it will ‘fundamentally cut back military activity’ around Kyiv and Chernihiv after Ukraine talks.




					www.aljazeera.com
				











						Ukraine war: Russia says it will curb Kyiv assault as peace talks progress
					

Moscow says it will "drastically reduce" operations around the capital, Kyiv, as well as Chernihiv.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## MilEME09

I'll believe Russia when I see it, if anything they are probably pulling back their most weakened units to reinforce and repair

Meanwhile,  dear Japan, if you wanna be imperial a bit again, we won't say no...



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508886270080172039


----------



## Kilted

Kirkhill said:


> How can you fight without a year and a half of basic training and learning which colour socks are required?


Or by polishing the bottom of your boots, numbering the pairs of boots one and two and rotating them every day


----------



## Skysix

Jarnhamar said:


> I don't know, is there a pattern?
> 
> Misjudging ISIS
> Misjudging the Taliban 2.0
> Misjudging Russia


Perhaps the Int reports are written to please the analysts superiors. Or to justify predetermined political or military objectives. Or to provide backing information for budgetary/purchasing wants. Or maybe an over reliance on SigInt over HumInt. Or just plain incompetence. Who knows. 

But one thing has become glaringly obvious, the importance of IO (information operations, including psyops and cyberops) particularly the amount of OSINT available and outside analysts views.


----------



## Kirkhill

Interesting article by James Carden reiterating George Kennan.

To summarize:  Russia will get where its going in its own time and no amount of external pressure is going to make it get there faster.  Deal with Russia as you find it and not as you want it.









						George Kennan and the Russian future
					

US President Joe Biden’s ill-advised and reportedly ad-libbed call for regime change in Russia last week implicitly raised the question what kind of government Washington has in mind should Preside…




					asiatimes.com


----------



## MilEME09

Skysix said:


> Perhaps the Int reports are written to please the analysts superiors. Or to justify predetermined political or military objectives. Or to provide backing information for budgetary/purchasing wants. Or maybe an over reliance on SigInt over HumInt. Or just plain incompetence. Who knows.
> 
> But one thing has become glaringly obvious, the importance of IO (information operations, including psyops and cyberops) particularly the amount of OSINT available and outside analysts views.


OSINT is becoming more and more of an important tool these days, even CFINTCOM has an OSINT Group. Said group really should be briefing ever BMQ when it comes to things like meta data, and verification of sources


----------



## suffolkowner

The Ukrainians have to avoid getting cut off and isolated in the south east. I dont buy any retreat by the Russians at all. They're either repositioning assets, withdrawing because they can't press the advantage or just outright lying. NATO should continue to pump everything they can into Ukraine as every Russian tank/jet loss is almost an insurmountable deficit


----------



## Staff Weenie

suffolkowner said:


> The Ukrainians have to avoid getting cut off and isolated in the south east. I dont buy any retreat by the Russians at all. They're either repositioning assets, withdrawing because they can't press the advantage or just outright lying. NATO should continue to pump everything they can into Ukraine as every Russian tank/jet loss is almost an insurmountable deficit


I've been wondering about this - how long will it take Russia to replace the losses, especially in fighter jets, armoured vehicles, and MBTs? Unless they gear up their industry, I'm assuming it'll be many years.


----------



## MilEME09

Staff Weenie said:


> I've been wondering about this - how long will it take Russia to replace the losses, especially in fighter jets, armoured vehicles, and MBTs? Unless they gear up their industry, I'm assuming it'll be many years.


They lack a lot of the heavy industry and High tech industry to produce many components. It will take decades to recover. When this is over the Russian armed forces will be a shell of its pre war self


----------



## suffolkowner

Staff Weenie said:


> I've been wondering about this - how long will it take Russia to replace the losses, especially in fighter jets, armoured vehicles, and MBTs? Unless they gear up their industry, I'm assuming it'll be many years.


They've had a real problem producing fighter jets, I know that.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> withdrawing because they can't press the advantage



So, retreating?


----------



## KevinB

suffolkowner said:


> They've had a real problem producing fighter jets, I know that.


And tanks and…


----------



## FJAG

MilEME09 said:


> They lack a lot of the heavy industry and High tech industry to produce many components. It will take decades to recover. When this is over the Russian armed forces will be a shell of its pre war self


Which pre-war self seemed to have been a shell of the the pre-war self we all imagined it was.

🍻


----------



## SeaKingTacco

FJAG said:


> Which pre-war self seemed to have been a shell of the the pre-war self we all imagined it was.
> 
> 🍻


Apparently, you cannot endlessly rob the motor pool, armoury and ammo depot, selling everything for vodka and dachas, without it someday coming home to roost…


----------



## MilEME09

SeaKingTacco said:


> Apparently, you cannot endlessly rob the motor pool, armoury and ammo depot, selling everything for vodka and dachas, without it someday coming home to roost…


You also can't endlessly rob front line PYs and stand up HQs........


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> You also can't endlessly rob front line PYs and stand up HQs........


Heresy 
😱


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508875347890081794


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508874138307502091


----------



## Remius

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508875347890081794











						Shell hits military camp in Russia, most likely from Ukrainian side - Tass
					

A shell hit a temporary Russian military camp near the border with Ukraine late on Tuesday, Tass news agency said and cited a source as saying preliminary data showed it had been fired from the Ukrainian side.




					www.reuters.com
				




Good to see some strikes on Russian territory.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509098349533749248


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508875347890081794


False Flag to justify NBC response?


----------



## Remius

Good2Golf said:


> False Flag to justify NBC response?


Ukraine missile strike.


----------



## Good2Golf

Remius said:


> Ukraine missile strike.


🤔 

TASS says shelling by arty…not that I believe them. 😉


----------



## McG

Remius said:


> Shell hits military camp in Russia, most likely from Ukrainian side - Tass
> 
> 
> A shell hit a temporary Russian military camp near the border with Ukraine late on Tuesday, Tass news agency said and cited a source as saying preliminary data showed it had been fired from the Ukrainian side.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Good to see some strikes on Russian territory.





Good2Golf said:


> False Flag to justify NBC response?





Remius said:


> Ukraine missile strike.


It is a legitimate military target regardless of who actually fired the shot. But, since Russia's stance has always been that it can go nuclear to defend the motherland, perhaps it is a good time for USA or NATO to remind that nuclear escalation in Ukraine would be step that does not go unpunished.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest UKR mil int tote board ....

And some RUS MoD info-machine pix from the Kherson food lines:  Have some candy little girl ...

... but don't be coming tooooooooo close in large groups, m'kay?


----------



## Haggis

McG said:


> It is a legitimate military target regardless of who actually fired the shot. But, since Russia's stance has always been that it can go nuclear to defend the motherland, *perhaps it is a good time for USA or NATO to remind that nuclear escalation in Ukraine would be step that does not go unpunished.*


Yeah.... another NATO/US reminder.  That'll work.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> False Flag to justify NBC response?


Given how much the RUS mil machine is portrayed as still being at "The Liberators" phase of development, let's also not rule out the equivalent of someone smoking too close to the stack of boom stuff or making sparks while trying to sell ammo


----------



## McG

Haggis said:


> Yeah.... another NATO/US reminder.  That'll work.


Putin thought he was calling NATO's bluff when he resumed the invasion in late Feb.
The consequences, though short of war, have been sharper than he expected.
Maybe he has learned not to gamble that NATO is bluffing.


----------



## Haggis

McG said:


> The consequences, though short of war, have been sharper than he expected.


Yet, he is still in Ukraine.


McG said:


> Maybe he has learned not to gamble that NATO is bluffing.


Repositioning eastern military forces to the west and calling up 134K citizens to replace losses from his special military operation doesn't seem to show he's learned anything.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508837556187709451


----------



## KevinB

When you deploy late war (WW2) German prototypes to the field, makes you wonder about what is left in the closet...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509138278892687365


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508795907164233736


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509134369314820099


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509112776224092163


----------



## Halifax Tar

KevinB said:


> When you deploy late war (WW2) German prototypes to the field, makes you wonder about what is left in the closet...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509138278892687365



That'll buff out.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509159751967547393


----------



## Portnord

Halifax Tar said:


> That'll buff out.


Looks like a job for Oscar


----------



## armrdsoul77

F-15 Eagle Driver On What It Is Like Flying Against Ukraine's Fighter Pilots


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509194414564032516


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> And





MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509194414564032516


Great way to get them to join NATO with the Finns.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509186801688211456


----------



## KevinB

‘Russian soldiers raped me as my terrified son cried’
					

Natalya speaks in a hushed voice, fearful that Oleksii, her young son, will wake and learn the terrible truth. Of why they had to flee the little house by the p




					www.thetimes.co.uk


----------



## KevinB

Buk stops here - some Russian Pilot had a bad day

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509210919930314754


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509184898963279878


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509112845992144896


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508909973585149959


----------



## KevinB

Staff Edit....no need to show the ID's and passports of recently killed soldiers.
Thanks.
Bruce


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509220528267141125


----------



## KevinB

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/30/russia-military-logistics-supply-chain/?fbclid=IwAR03eApMo9NO_B02MEwWbnXlR5PJQGZVrU65OBdJcvsTnvE4JcTbAGQxTY4


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509186801688211456


Sounds to me that old Roman should be sleeping with the fishes.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509226285322543105


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509184898963279878



If Covid 19 wasn't sufficient incentive to move out of town perhaps Kharkiv and Mariupol are.


----------



## Kirkhill

This came from a pro-Ukraine site on Reddit.
Can this be confirmed?

The good news?  The pressure to replace Putin seems to be increasing.
The bad news?  The replacement may be worse.



> *People pointed out that the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, was more Russian than Putin*






> Leading Russian propagandist asks "Why is Putin silent", calls him "less Russian than Kadyrov " and ends her propaganda piece saying: "if a popular revolt is possible in Russia, it is only because of its weakness and betrayal of national interests"




__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ts7q6a



> *Russian propagandists are getting uneasy. Today one of the leading propagandists, Lyubov Stepushova, published a piece in the Russian "Pravda" titled "Why is Putin silent". Here's the translation:*
> 
> Strategy or disgrace in Istanbul: why is Putin silent?
> The announced results of the third stage of the Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul have been received extremely negatively in Russian society. Everyone is waiting for an explanation from the president.
> Medinsky wants peace with Bandera-era Kiev
> Russian negotiator Vladimir Medinsky outlined the outcome of the negotiations with Kiev in Istanbul on 29 March in a way that made it clear that Russia no longer demanded denazification, recognition of Crimea as Russian, independence of the LDNR or even demilitarisation of Ukraine.
> The suspension of hostilities in the Kiev suburbs and near Chernihiv was announced, and the talks themselves were described as constructive and "two huge steps towards peace" .
> Medinsky said that Russia does not want to put Kiev at risk militarily because "the decision makers are there". It is "our desire to gradually come to a de-escalation of the conflict, at least on these fronts," Medinsky said.
> Kadyrov is more Russian than Putin
> The social networks in Runet were filled with indignation. Russians pointed out that "it smells of the first campaign in the Caucasus, when politicians jammed guns with their nonsense statements and prevented the troops from doing their job, causing casualties and loss of morale."
> Roman Abramovich's presence at the negotiations in Istanbul was compared to that of Boris Berezovsky at the signing of Khasavyurt, which led to the second Chechen war.
> *People pointed out that the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, was more Russian than Putin*. On the front, those fighting were categorical - we will not forgive them if they do not let the Bandera scum in Ukraine be finished off. Accusations of the authorities betraying the people and working for the oligarchs began to pour in. The citizens of Ukraine in the liberated territories were almost hysterical - 'they will give us to the Nazis for slaughter'.
> The situation in the information space on the evening of March 29 was exceptionally morally grave, not even the "temnik" sent down to explain it - they said that Medinsky was instructed to be "accommodating" - it was diplomacy, necessary for the "picture" to be broadcast to the West.
> Why flirt when Russia is winning on all fronts?
> *Putting aside emotions and thoughts of betrayal, it is unclear why Vladimir Putin needs this picture when he is successful on the front. All the more so as we are winning the economic stand-off with the West:*
> OFZ market held, stock market held, food and fuel market held;
> Fundamental decisions have been made to prohibit capital outflows that have hindered the development of the economy;
> the budget rule has been abolished - the money will go to the economy, not to the cushion of the National Welfare Fund;
> the requirement to sell foreign currency proceeds by exporters was introduced - the rouble has strengthened;
> the requirement to buy gas for roubles was voiced, soon the grain will be sold in this way and so on, it will make the rouble the basic world currency;
> programs to support and develop the economy were announced;
> international support is growing.
> Misunderstandings are intensifying amid permission to ship neon from Odessa, so that global chip production for the West (not for us) does not stop. "Compromise" to create a "picture" has led to a 5% drop in world oil prices, and yet they are now irrelevant to our domestic prices.
> Kiev and the West are delighted with their tactic of dragging out the Russian military operation, this will prompt new sanctions, new arms deliveries and there will be many other new things very unpleasant for Russia.
> Is it possible to believe that shame is a strategy
> Some Telegram channels close to the top rushed to clarify things on Wednesday morning.
> The Info Bureau-UFO wrote, citing a "credible" source, that the talks with Kiev are necessary for the country's leadership to "formally comply with a number of international rules, as Russia is a state of law".
> In other words, the outcome of the negotiations and the talks themselves, are not a disgrace, but part of the strategy.
> "Yes, everybody got a shock. But... watch how events develop further. These negotiators don't have any rights at all. Was it possible to imagine Stalin signing any kind of treaty with Hitler. The level of approval for the military special operation to denazify and demilitarise Ukraine is growing by the day and there will be no turning back! Putin hears the people. For him, this is the main thing when making decisions meaningful for all citizens," said the insider.
> These speeches might have been believed had it not been for a statement by Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu issued at the same time as Medinsky's statement.
> During a conference call, Shoigu said that the main tasks of the special military operation in Ukraine had been completed (?) and therefore "it is now possible to concentrate on the main objective (?) - the liberation of Donbass". In other words, this is indirect confirmation of the withdrawal of troops from Kiev and the abandonment of the real main objectives voiced repeatedly by the president.
> The US will not let Putin relax
> But the West and Ukraine have killed this mindset of the Russian top brass to roll back the operation and preserve Banderaism as a phenomenon, and they will force Putin to go until complete victory over Nazism.
> Western capitals have said they don't believe in Moscow's concessions, and Zelensky said in another nightly speech that there would be no concessions, that there would only be "our terms" etc.
> According to Telegram channel Legitimate, the Kremlin has received clear signals that the Ukrainian crisis can only be solved this way:
> "Russia will make concessions, meet the demands of the West and Ukraine, but the pressure and sanctions will not go anywhere until Russia completely capitulates, admitting it has been defeated, and then pays reparations to the Ukrainian authorities, which may further lead to a split in Russia itself.
> *It remains to be drummed into the heads of our elite, who still hope to return their friendship with the West, that Russia loves only strong rulers and, if a popular revolt is possible in Russia, it is only because of its weakness and betrayal of national interests.*
> Source (in Russian): pravda _dot_ ru/politics/1694437-peregovory_estambul/


----------



## Kirkhill

Starstreak HVM GBAD deployed to Ukraine









						World's fastest laser-guided missile deployed to Ukraine
					

Starstreak gives jet pilots and helicopter crews little time to react




					www.thenationalnews.com


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> Staff Edit....no need to show the ID's and passports of recently killed soldiers.
> Thanks.
> Bruce


I'm in complete agreement with Bruce here.

A general description of the tweet works here, not the picture. I know Russia is the aggressor here but that's no reason not to extend proper curtesy to their war dead.

19 year olds born under Putin and killed in his war don't deserve to have their personal information posted online.


----------



## HiTechComms

The Bread Guy said:


> We'll see ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Relief for Kyiv? Russia vows to scale back near the capital
> 
> 
> KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russia announced Tuesday it will significantly scale back military operations near Ukraine’s capital and a northern city, as the outlines of a possible deal to end the grinding war came into view at the latest round of talks.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> apnews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia says it will reduce military activity around Kyiv
> 
> 
> Russia says it will ‘fundamentally cut back military activity’ around Kyiv and Chernihiv after Ukraine talks.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.aljazeera.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine war: Russia says it will curb Kyiv assault as peace talks progress
> 
> 
> Moscow says it will "drastically reduce" operations around the capital, Kyiv, as well as Chernihiv.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com


Isn't that just routine troop rotation?

Also as I have stated that they just wanted to tie down those areas as Donbas was the actual target. Now that Mariupol is almost all under DPR control they will shift their forces against the Eastern Ukrainian Army on the Donbass borders. As far as all the intelligence shows that they are in a bad situation. I don't recollect the Russians ever saying they are gone go into Kyiv or Kharkiv.

Now the Fun day will come on the 31st of this month which was the dead line for Europe to pay for Gas in Rubles. Germany said it will not comply.  I am sure Russian will take Gold for payment as well but I don't think the Russians are gone blink on this one. We will see who will break first.

So far the economic war on Russia has not worked. The Ruble is almost back to levels previous to the war. We will see in two days if Russia shuts of the gas. I know price for Gas in the EU has skyrocketed, even in places like the UK.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Yesterday I mentioned a Brit Youtuber called ‘Bald and Bankrupt’ who primarily goes around the former SU searching out old Soviet architecture and history and talks about. It’s pretty cool and provides a lot of insight of what life is like for the ordinary people outside of the main cities. Anyways, here is the 2nd last he just put out where he travels to a village 60km north of Kharkiv that straddles the border with Russia on the day before the invasion occurs….


----------



## McG

HiTechComms said:


> Now the Fun day will come on the 31st of this month which was the dead line for Europe to pay for Gas in Rubles.


"fun"? You really are emotionally attached to the side of the invaders.

Anyway, Russia has already backed off that demand.



			https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60923158?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6244981f1fea84616a6cd4e9%26Russia%20to%20continue%20to%20allow%20gas%20payments%20to%20be%20made%20in%20euros%20-%20Germany%262022-03-30T18%3A24%3A05.019Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:36aa80a5-5f5d-4e82-adc7-109b40799bb9&pinned_post_asset_id=6244981f1fea84616a6cd4e9&pinned_post_type=share


----------



## The Bread Guy

This from RUS state media...

Question to Lavrov:  exactly who's fault is it, again, that you might be caught up in another Afghanistan - again?

A multi-layered pastry of irony right there .... #IronicMilleFeuille


----------



## Altair

The Bread Guy said:


> This from RUS state media...
> View attachment 69801
> Question to Lavrov:  exactly who's fault is it, again, that you might be caught up in another Afghanistan - again?
> 
> A multi-layered pastry of irony right there .... #IronicMilleFeuille


----------



## HiTechComms

McG said:


> "fun"? You really are emotionally attached to the side of the invaders.
> 
> Anyway, Russia has already backed off that demand.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60923158?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6244981f1fea84616a6cd4e9%26Russia%20to%20continue%20to%20allow%20gas%20payments%20to%20be%20made%20in%20euros%20-%20Germany%262022-03-30T18%3A24%3A05.019Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:36aa80a5-5f5d-4e82-adc7-109b40799bb9&pinned_post_asset_id=6244981f1fea84616a6cd4e9&pinned_post_type=share


Possibly I don't see the main stream news yet to verify this. I don't see a source to this. I did notice that Gazprom bank is not under sanctions in that snippet which is very interesting.

Any way I think that Russians will not renew their contracts after this.

Stating facts doesn't make any one pro anything. I think there are far greater economic consequences for Europe on the trajectory they are on.


----------



## TacticalTea

HiTechComms said:


> Stating facts


That is one hilarious statement to make, buddy


----------



## Altair

HiTechComms said:


> Possibly I don't see the main stream news yet to verify this. I don't see a source to this. I did notice that Gazprom bank is not under sanctions in that snippet which is very interesting.
> 
> Any way I think that Russians will not renew their contracts after this.
> 
> Stating facts doesn't make any one pro anything. I think there are far greater economic consequences for Europe on the trajectory they are on.


As a neutral party you must be happy that Russia has not succeed in invading Ukraine and Ukraine has not be successful in invading Russia, yes?


----------



## Remius

I don’t believe anything coming out of Russia one way or another.

Russian special military operation plan:

Phase 1: lose.  Mission accomplished 
Phase 2: save face, change objectives and try claim a win by stating that was the objective all along (in progress)


----------



## KevinB

Remius said:


> I don’t believe anything coming out of Russia one way or another.
> 
> Russian special military operation plan:
> 
> Phase 1: lose.  Mission accomplished
> Phase 2: save face, change objectives and try claim a win by stating that was the objective all along (in progress)


Special Russian FRP and disarmament program…


----------



## KevinB

Altair said:


> I'm in complete agreement with Bruce here.
> 
> A general description of the tweet works here, not the picture. I know Russia is the aggressor here but that's no reason not to extend proper curtesy to their war dead.
> 
> 19 year olds born under Putin and killed in his war don't deserve to have their personal information posted online.


The only reason I posted it was I thought it was sad.
   NOK had been notified - but as I tend to post the worst of the Russians - I felt posting the tweet with the pictures added some humanity.


----------



## Altair

KevinB said:


> The only reason I posted it was I thought it was sad.
> NOK had been notified - but as I tend to post the worst of the Russians - I felt posting the tweet with the pictures added some humanity.


Humanity yes, but I wouldn't want that posted online about myself, my friends, or anyone I serve with.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> As a neutral party you must be happy that Russia has not succeed in invading Ukraine and Ukraine has not be successful in invading Russia, yes?


Da, Camrade. I am happy that glorious Russian Army has not invaded any country outside the borders of the USSR.


----------



## Jarnhamar

McG said:


> "fun"? You really are emotionally attached to the side of the invaders.


Would you expect anything less from someone stating facts such as Russia isn't targeting civilians?


----------



## Remius

Jarnhamar said:


> Would you expect anything less from someone stating facts such as Russia isn't targeting civilians?


Or how surprised he is that Russia is being careful about not targeting civilian targets.


----------



## Remius

While I don’t believe a thing that Russia says I do pay attention to British Intelligence when they say something.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509274348963741707


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509291360435724288


----------



## NavyShooter

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509288825851424776
Just drive around them....they're just Roombas...they'll do a good job cleaning off the road if you bump one....


----------



## ModlrMike

Maybe we could send them some really long shuffleboard sticks.


----------



## HiTechComms

Altair said:


> As a neutral party you must be happy that Russia has not succeed in invading Ukraine and Ukraine has not be successful in invading Russia, yes?


I honestly don't care about Ukraine.  I don't live there and I don't think any one in the west should die for it.


----------



## HiTechComms

Czech_pivo said:


> Da, Camrade. I am happy that glorious Russian Army has not invaded any country outside the borders of the USSR.


Point to a map where USSR exists.


----------



## Remius

Putin is still using this map from 2014.


----------



## McG

HiTechComms said:


> I honestly don't care about Ukraine.


We know. You’ve made it obvious. 
You don’t care about Ukraine or Ukrainians.
It’s a little heartless.


----------



## HiTechComms

Remius said:


> I don’t believe anything coming out of Russia one way or another.
> 
> Russian special military operation plan:
> 
> Phase 1: lose.  Mission accomplished
> Phase 2: save face, change objectives and try claim a win by stating that was the objective all along (in progress)


I am not sure where you think that was their goals.

Was it on CNN/CBC/Fox/ABC/MSN/Twitter from an Western "Expert"? Did any one actually read what the Russians said they were going to do?

They had specific goals they stated.

Russia was clear.

No NATO / Neutrality (This is about settled)
No Nukes 
Crimea is Russian + water access
Donbas gets independence (Minsk accords)
Denazification (not sure what this meant but since Mariupol had azov battalion was located they must have their goal met)
Demilitarization (Wester armament)

Oh and I guarantee that when they negotiations end I bet the Russians will be the security guarantors so if anything is broken the Russians will legally roll in. Ukrainians also stated already submitted a proposal that the Russians didn't outright throw out.

Russia doesn't care about the rest of Ukraine, they only care about the ethnic Russian speakers in Donbas and even then I am not sure they will actually annex DPR/LPR. They didn't do it with Chechnya.

This whole Ukraine mess will not matter in a few months as I think we have a bigger problems. Bond markets are showing some really worry some trends first it was the 7 year 10 year inverse now its the 2 year and 10 year inverse. Historically this meant recession. There will be another "crisis" that will be manufactured by both sides. I am betting African famine.


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509226285322543105


Reporter: “What about Russia’s refusing to honour the Budapest Agreement?”

Labrov:  bends down to re-tie shoelace while reporter is asking question…


----------



## HiTechComms

McG said:


> We know. You’ve made it obvious.
> You don’t care about Ukraine or Ukrainians.
> It’s a little heartless.


Did you care about Iraqis, Afghanies, Syrians, Libyans, Yemenis, ?
If not than you are heartless as well. 

Ukrainians are not worth starting WW3 over. 

I am not one of those people "I support the Current Thing NPC"


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

HiTechComms said:


> Did you care about Iraqis, Afghanies, Syrians, Libyans, Yemenis, ?
> If not than you are heartless as well.


Did we bomb their civilians??


HiTechComms said:


> Ukrainians are not worth starting WW3 over.


What an asshole thing to say......doing the right thing for ANYONE might be worth WW3


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Ukrainians are not worth starting WW3 over.



It's not going to go that far.  Probably just going to let Russia humiliate itself for a while.


----------



## Remius

KevinB said:


> Special Russian FRP and disarmament program…


Yes it allows them to reduce their army and disarm themselves.  Dead soldiers cost nothing in Russia and busted up equipment costs money.  Money Putin and his Kleptocracy will need to replace their seized assets. 

Underdeveloped corrupt countries are strange.


----------



## Skysix

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> Did we bomb their civilians??


Technically no. Drone strike collateral damage mostly.

But did the USA? Yes, Yes, No, Maybe, No.


----------



## JLB50

HiTechComms said:


> I honestly don't care about Ukraine.  I don't live there and I don't think any one in the west should die for it.


Ok, you don’t care about Ukraine.  What do you really care about?  Since most people here do care about Ukraine, why do you even come here?  It seems to me that you have little or nothing in common with the vast majority of members.


----------



## Altair

HiTechComms said:


> I honestly don't care about Ukraine.  I don't live there and I don't think any one in the west should die for it.


You also don't care about Russia either, right?


----------



## Altair

JLB50 said:


> Ok, you don’t care about Ukraine.  What do you really care about?  Since most people here do care about Ukraine, why do you even come here?  It seems to me that you have little or nothing in common with the vast majority of members.


Doesn't care about Ukraine, most of his posts are in the Ukraine thread. 

Hmmmmmm........


----------



## suffolkowner

HiTechComms said:


> I am not sure where you think that was their goals.
> 
> Was it on CNN/CBC/Fox/ABC/MSN/Twitter from an Western "Expert"? Did any one actually read what the Russians said they were going to do?
> 
> They had specific goals they stated.
> 
> Russia was clear.
> 
> No NATO / Neutrality (This is about settled)
> No Nukes
> Crimea is Russian + water access
> Donbas gets independence (Minsk accords)
> Denazification (not sure what this meant but since Mariupol had azov battalion was located they must have their goal met)
> Demilitarization (Wester armament)
> 
> Oh and I guarantee that when they negotiations end I bet the Russians will be the security guarantors so if anything is broken the Russians will legally roll in. Ukrainians also stated already submitted a proposal that the Russians didn't outright throw out.
> 
> Russia doesn't care about the rest of Ukraine, they only care about the ethnic Russian speakers in Donbas and even then I am not sure they will actually annex DPR/LPR. They didn't do it with Chechnya.
> 
> This whole Ukraine mess will not matter in a few months as I think we have a bigger problems. Bond markets are showing some really worry some trends first it was the 7 year 10 year inverse now its the 2 year and 10 year inverse. Historically this meant recession. There will be another "crisis" that will be manufactured by both sides. I am betting African famine.


Yeah Russia invaded Ukraine to spank Ukraine down and expose itself as a paper bear and in the process eliminate its conventional deterrent

No NATO was already done
No Nukes was already done
Crimea is Russian was already defacto true
Donbas independence was already defacto true
Denazification is not a real thing otherwise they would start in Russia itself
Demilitarization and the security guarantee are pretty obnoxious but in the end it is up to Ukraine to decide if they want to keep fighting and if they do I am of the opinion that we/NATO should continue to support them as long as it takes


----------



## ModlrMike

The only thing a demilitarized Ukraine gets is more Russian tanks.


----------



## Posthumane

Perhaps what Putin meant by de-nazification is sending all the Wagner group (started and led by a hitler fanboi) members to Ukr to be slaughtered. It's not de-nazificaiton OF Ukraine so much as de-nazification IN Ukraine.


----------



## Prairie canuck

JLB50 said:


> Ok, you don’t care about Ukraine.  What do you really care about?  Since most people here do care about Ukraine, why do you even come here?  It seems to me that you have little or nothing in common with the vast majority of members.


He is quite simply a Troll. His comments are meant to upset people and to start arguments nothing more. When challenged he'll reach all over the place and bring in information that will take it all in a new direction so he doesn't have to answer what he was challenged on. Troll. Best to just ignore and not respond.


----------



## HiTechComms

JLB50 said:


> Ok, you don’t care about Ukraine.  What do you really care about?  Since most people here do care about Ukraine, why do you even come here?  It seems to me that you have little or nothing in common with the vast majority of members.


Canadians and Polish citizens.

Because I don't like echo chambers because mistakes are more then often made when there is no dissenting opinions. In the arena of foreign policy more mistakes have been made by one track mentality. I am Neutral, I don't think we should say or do anything in regards to Ukraine. I will support refugee causes but that is about it, I donate money to humanitarian causes because at least those don't murder civilians.


----------



## HiTechComms

Altair said:


> You also don't care about Russia either, right?


I don't. Here go watch 8 years of this guys channel, no one else cared.



			https://www.youtube.com/c/PatrickLancasterNewsToday/videos
		


Don't care. I will not care until its in my back yard.


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> Canadians and Polish citizens.
> 
> Because I don't like echo chambers because mistakes are more then often made when there is no dissenting opinions. In the arena of foreign policy more mistakes have been made by one track mentality. I am Neutral, I don't think we should say or do anything in regards to Ukraine. I will support refugee causes but that is about it, I donate money to humanitarian causes because at least those don't murder civilians.


You don’t sound neutral.  At all. 

You keep stating it but none of your posts have been balanced in any way that indicates neutrality.  Quite the opposite. 

At least the soldier34 bot is honest about what side it supports.


----------



## TacticalTea

Trolls that y'all should've /ignore'd a long time ago aside,

Here's some actual Ukraine stuff:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509222831460356099
Once again... ''Steiner's assault will bring it under control''


----------



## Remius

HiTechComms said:


> I don't. Here go watch 8 years of this guys channel, no one else cared.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/c/PatrickLancasterNewsToday/videos
> 
> 
> 
> Don't care. I will not care until its in my back yard.


Yet I haven’t seen you post anywhere but here in quite some time.  That’s ok.  But it isn’t indicative of “not caring” about this topic.  You seem to care very much about what is happening.


----------



## Jarnhamar

HiTechComms said:


> Don't care. I will not care until its in my back yard.


Have you considered changing your profile signature to capture the fact you don't care about Ukraine? It might save you from feeling the need to tell everyone every few posts.


----------



## Remius

TacticalTea said:


> Trolls that y'all should've /ignore'd a long time ago aside,
> 
> Here's some actual Ukraine stuff:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509222831460356099
> Once again... ''Steiner's assault will bring it under control''


Seems to be the general consensus.


----------



## TacticalTea

Remius said:


> Seems to be the general consensus.


Well. 

The consensus about pre-war assessments of Ukraine, its people and its military, and of the Russian military, certainly.

But the fact that this echo chamber persists even despite the dismissal of many senior officers is what's interesting here.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> I am Neutral



Well, if we're doing the AA thing, I tend to be more Chaotic Good.


----------



## suffolkowner

And yet Canada is in two military defence alliances specifically to counter act Russia. Our position on this as a country is not neutral. I also fail to see how Russian military success in Ukraine stengthens the security of those two alliances or its members


----------



## Czech_pivo

HiTechComms said:


> I don't. Here go watch 8 years of this guys channel, no one else cared.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/c/PatrickLancasterNewsToday/videos
> 
> 
> 
> Don't care. I will not care until its in my back yard.


If you care about Polish citizens like you said, then it’s in your backyard.


----------



## OceanBonfire

> Mendicino told CTV News Channel’s Power Play host Evan Solomon the members are part of a highly “specialized” team that will be up to the task of holding Russia accountable for its illegal invasion of Ukraine.
> 
> “This will be a team of dedicated experts who understand how to collect evidence which could be marshaled into a future prosecution that could be put before the International Criminal Court…These individuals will be deployed as quickly as possible,” he said on Tuesday.











						RCMP being sent to International Criminal Court to be dispatched 'as quickly as possible': Mendicino
					

Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino says the additional group of RCMP officers being sent to help the International Criminal Court (ICC) investigate possible war crimes by Russia will be deployed 'as quickly as possible.'




					www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## HiTechComms

Remius said:


> You don’t sound neutral.  At all.
> 
> You keep stating it but none of your posts have been balanced in any way that indicates neutrality.  Quite the opposite.
> 
> At least the soldier34 bot is honest about what side it supports.


That is your projection.

Balanced with what? All everyone ever posts here is Twitter propaganda that simply comes from the western media. No one questions any of the posts. Everyone just cheers for more war and the blood of others.

The one link I posted and not a single reply with hey I watched that and maybe the situation is more complex. Maybe we should discuss it further. Everyone here is just we need to get involved send troops, Leathal aid, airplanes and bombs etc.  Oh and not a single point in time does any one say hey Ukraine has some issues as well and shit they are doing is questionable. I also have access to other media sources and don't just consume western propaganda. No one here actually read to any statements made by Russian it self, you just simply accept as a statement of fact from Western Experts as this is what Russia is doing. I mean who the fuck believes the Western Media Experts of years of covid backtrack, years of russia collusion, Ukraine collusion, hunter biden laptop, Biolabs etc. Shit I think the conspiracy theorists are more honest and accurate than western media.

Go watch an American that spent 8 years in the region doing Journalism. Go back to his first video and tell me that is propaganda.
https://www.youtube.com/c/PatrickLancasterNewsToday/videos

Oh lastly no one here has the concept of geopolitics and macro economic objectives.  All that Russia has stated for goals they are occurring. Absolutely every western projections have been wrong. Everyone is lying and everyone is full of shit and that goes ten fold for Twitter.

Russian Poor Logistics
Russian Soldiers suffering frostbite..
Running out of fuel
Ghost of Kyiv
Supposed counter offensives by Ukraine
Biolabs
Neo-Nazi battalions
Ukraine is making concessions
Sanctions
Minsk accords (No one in the west pressed Ukraine on this, happily gave them weapons on the other hand. Blood money YEY.)

I am interested in the situation and the strategic moves that playing doesn't make me pro Russia or pro Ukraine. I do think some of the western moves are catastrophically stupid and will only strengthen China and those guys are commies and don't care for them at all. I also don't want WW3 and this stupid rhetoric especially that of Western politicians are not encouraging. I also am very aware that this is just a distraction from our national problems.








						Strategic Empathy: Assessing Leadership Behavior
					

Insights from Zachary Shore



					thediplomat.com
				




Why is it that Russia is not calling about for Regime change in Ukraine but the west is calling for Russia's?

Don't you guys ever stop and say how come this stuff doesn't make any sense what so ever? Its all Russia bad, We good! How about we mind our own fucking business because we have zero national interests there. I still cannot believe we sanctioned through our banks literally stole money broke contracts and destroyed the only thing that made our system trustworthy. No one will ever trust western banks or the west to be contractually honest, 500 years of common law out the window for virtue signaling.

I am getting to the point that maybe we should just attack Russia start WW3 and just be Nuked get it over and done with. Fuck it. Humans are on the brink of we are too stupid to exist. Collectively I think we are losing our shit and have no reverse gear.  I honestly think we are heading for Thucydides Trap - Wikipedia

Any way no one here wants to engage discourse just stupid cheerleading. So you know what Admins Please delete this account if I could I would at this point. I guess I don't fit in, which is ok.








						I Support The Current Thing
					

I Support The Current Thing refers to a catchphrase often paired with the NPC Wojak character to mock people on social media who change their profile pictures to include symbols or filters that show support for a particular movement or ideology, which some deem as slacktivism. The most common...




					knowyourmeme.com


----------



## MilEME09

Comments from the polish PM


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509379250826186755


----------



## TacticalTea

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509287796065845250
_facepalm_


----------



## TacticalTea

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509313406024790022
Anyone got marshmallows?

Cause that's one comically fiery tank.

Here's a question for the folks, inspired from a twitter comment: If that was your frontyard what would you do after the war? I think I'd keep the tank there and grow flowers around it. Maybe plop a fountain of top of the turret?


----------



## Altair

TacticalTea said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509300030406078465
> Glory to the Alliance.
> 
> Thankfully, Finland has better Opinion ''Poles'' than Army.ca
> 
> According to this Yle poll: Support for Nato membership hits record high
> 62% in favour, with only a meager 16% opposed.


Russia winning.


----------



## Altair

Soldier35 said:


> In the battles for the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, one of the Russian T-72B tanks withstood a hit in the upper part of the tower of the Swedish-British portable NLAW ATGM, in the attack footage, one of the nationalists of the Azov battalion shoots at a Russian T-72B tank.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The footage of the destroyed division of the S-300 air defense system of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the settlement of Circuna, Kharkiv region, was published by the Russian Defense Ministry. The coordinates of the location of the S-300 air defense system of Ukraine were established with the help of electronic intelligence, after which the positions were struck by missile weapons. As a result of an accurate hit, the launchers of the S-300 air defense system and transport-loading vehicles with ammunition were destroyed.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Published footage of the calculations of the operational-tactical missile complex "Iskander-K" and the launch of the cruise missile R-500 in Ukraine. Iskander is a family of operational and tactical missile systems that has been in service with the Russian army for 15 years. Iskander is not a single missile system, but several modifications of various missiles. The basis of the Iskander-K complex is the 9K728 cruise missile, also known as the R-500, the launch of which is shown in the video. The missile has incredible accuracy, and is capable of hitting targets with an accuracy of up to two meters. Officially, the range of the R-500 missile is about 500 kilometers, but many sources believe that the actual range of the missile is 2000-2500


Everything going according to plan then?


----------



## Skysix

TacticalTea said:


> Trolls that y'all should've /ignore'd a long time ago aside,
> 
> Here's some actual Ukraine stuff:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509222831460356099


To be fair, this is far from only bring a Russian problem. Think of how Afghanistan was framed for a whole list of US presidents by the Pentagon political generals


----------



## TacticalTea

Skysix said:


> To be fair, this is far from only bring a Russian problem. Think of how Afghanistan was framed for a whole list of US presidents by the Pentagon political generals


It's easy to compare apples and oranges if you stick to the idea that they're both nothing more than roughly spherical fruits.

But, as in almost everything, it's a matter of degree and detail. To what degree this applies to the Kremlin VS to what degree does it apply to the Pentagon? I think we can safely say, to drastically different degrees.

Or, at the very least, sufficiently different that the comparison may serve as a useful warning not to tread that path, but not much else.

I make a point here to share this ''rule'', because it is most often infringed by trolls and political actors seeking to manipulate, by drawing inapt comparisons. Most relevantly, as exemplified by certain individuals - who shan't be named - in this very thread; and most prominently, by Russia's FM and UN Amb, on a daily basis.


----------



## The Bread Guy

ModlrMike said:


> Maybe we could send them some really long shuffleboard sticks.


Don't need 'em ...


----------



## WLSC

HiTechComms said:


> That is your projection.
> 
> Balanced with what? All everyone ever posts here is Twitter propaganda that simply comes from the western media. No one questions any of the posts. Everyone just cheers for more war and the blood of others.
> 
> The one link I posted and not a single reply with hey I watched that and maybe the situation is more complex. Maybe we should discuss it further. Everyone here is just we need to get involved send troops, Leathal aid, airplanes and bombs etc.  Oh and not a single point in time does any one say hey Ukraine has some issues as well and shit they are doing is questionable. I also have access to other media sources and don't just consume western propaganda. No one here actually read to any statements made by Russian it self, you just simply accept as a statement of fact from Western Experts as this is what Russia is doing. I mean who the fuck believes the Western Media Experts of years of covid backtrack, years of russia collusion, Ukraine collusion, hunter biden laptop, Biolabs etc. Shit I think the conspiracy theorists are more honest and accurate than western media.
> 
> Go watch an American that spent 8 years in the region doing Journalism. Go back to his first video and tell me that is propaganda.
> https://www.youtube.com/c/PatrickLancasterNewsToday/videos
> 
> Oh lastly no one here has the concept of geopolitics and macro economic objectives.  All that Russia has stated for goals they are occurring. Absolutely every western projections have been wrong. Everyone is lying and everyone is full of shit and that goes ten fold for Twitter.
> 
> Russian Poor Logistics
> Russian Soldiers suffering frostbite..
> Running out of fuel
> Ghost of Kyiv
> Supposed counter offensives by Ukraine
> Biolabs
> Neo-Nazi battalions
> Ukraine is making concessions
> Sanctions
> Minsk accords (No one in the west pressed Ukraine on this, happily gave them weapons on the other hand. Blood money YEY.)
> 
> I am interested in the situation and the strategic moves that playing doesn't make me pro Russia or pro Ukraine. I do think some of the western moves are catastrophically stupid and will only strengthen China and those guys are commies and don't care for them at all. I also don't want WW3 and this stupid rhetoric especially that of Western politicians are not encouraging. I also am very aware that this is just a distraction from our national problems.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Strategic Empathy: Assessing Leadership Behavior
> 
> 
> Insights from Zachary Shore
> 
> 
> 
> thediplomat.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Why is it that Russia is not calling about for Regime change in Ukraine but the west is calling for Russia's?
> 
> Don't you guys ever stop and say how come this shit doesn't make any sense what so ever? Its all Russia bad, We good! How about we mind our own fucking business because we have zero national interests there. I still cannot believe we sanctioned through our banks literally stole money broke contracts and destroyed the only thing that made our system trustworthy. No one will ever trust western banks or the west to be contractually honest, 500 years of common law out the window for virtue signaling.
> 
> I am getting to the point that maybe we should just attack Russia start WW3 and just be Nuked get it over and done with. Fuck it. Humans are on the brink of we are too stupid to exist. Collectively I think we are losing our shit and have no reverse gear.  I honestly think we are heading for Thucydides Trap - Wikipedia
> 
> Any way no one here wants to engage discourse just stupid cheerleading. So you know what Admins Please delete this account if I could I would at this point. I guess I don't fit in, which is ok.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I Support The Current Thing
> 
> 
> I Support The Current Thing refers to a catchphrase often paired with the NPC Wojak character to mock people on social media who change their profile pictures to include symbols or filters that show support for a particular movement or ideology, which some deem as slacktivism. The most common...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> knowyourmeme.com


Ok….

I won’t reply to all but only a few points.  Of course we will talk about getting involve with steel and bullets.  This is Army.ca, not Les Fille d’Isabelle, nor le Cercle des Fermières or GAC.ca web site.  We can all see what’s happening on the ground because most of us can see it without Twitter. 

I can and I think must of us understand macroeconomic.  Even if I can see your point, I do not read the same effect nor have to agree with you interpretation.  We all understand it was very complex situation before the war.  It’s NOT the Ukraine that tried to take Moscow.  Putin put the fire in the house because in my view, you can’t decide for the other what they will do because you are loosing hair on the top of your head.

Regime change…seriously!!  It’s an open goal of Putin, denazifacation of Ukraine.  And POTUS said exactly what most people think.  This guy should not be President of Russia.  He did not say throw him out and explicitly said that point 2 days ago.

Having a view point from the other side is good.You have to understand the crowd to be able to make your point, which you don’t.

On this, have a good weekend 😀


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR's President seems to have having some issues with some of the overseas staff (via UKR MoD info-machine)


> ... There are those who work together with everyone to defend the state. So that Ukraine can gain its future. We appreciate the work of each such person. And there are those who waste time and work only to stay in office. Today I signed the first decree to recall such a person. Such an Ambassador of Ukraine. From Morocco. The Ambassador from Georgia was also recalled.
> 
> With all due respect: if there are no weapons, no sanctions, no restrictions for Russian business - please look for another job.
> 
> I look forward to concrete results in the coming days from our representatives in Latin America, the Middle East, Southeast Asia and Africa.
> 
> I expect the same results from military attaches in the coming days. The diplomatic frontline is one of the key frontlines. And everyone there must work as efficiently as possible to win and help the army. Each on the diplomatic frontline must work just as each of our defenders on the battlefield ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Reeeeeeeeeeeeeeally?








						Russia evacuates its soldiers to Belarus to help treat their radioactive poisoning
					

Russia is reportedly evacuating its soldiers to a special medical facility in Belarus after they dug trenches in radioactive soil in a forest near the Chernobyl nuclear site. Citing a report from Belarus' open-source intelligence analysts, Militarnyi reported that Russian soldiers leaving the...




					defence-blog.com


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> In the battles for the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, one of the Russian T-72B tanks withstood a hit in the upper part of the tower of the Swedish-British portable NLAW ATGM, in the attack footage, one of the nationalists of the Azov battalion shoots at a Russian T-72B tank.



 I guess UKR will have to ask for an extra NLAW to replace that one.  In the positive side, it goes to show how safe the NLAW munitions are, that they don’t initiate before the safe arm distance is reached.

Kind of the opposite to RUS fireworks munitions…


----------



## KevinB

Soldier35 said:


> In the battles for the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, one of the Russian T-72B tanks withstood a hit in the upper part of the tower of the Swedish-British portable NLAW ATGM, in the attack footage, one of the nationalists of the Azov battalion shoots at a Russian T-72B tank.


Sadly the NLAW was fired inside minimum arming distance - or the tank would have been toast and the crew crispy critters. 



Soldier35 said:


> The footage of the destroyed division of the S-300 air defense system of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the settlement of Circuna, Kharkiv region, was published by the Russian Defense Ministry. The coordinates of the location of the S-300 air defense system of Ukraine were established with the help of electronic intelligence, after which the positions were struck by missile weapons. As a result of an accurate hit, the launchers of the S-300 air defense system and transport-loading vehicles with ammunition were destroyed.


Actually some pictures where posted to Twitter and the item’s geolocated from the pictures and video.  
  Something an 8 year old could do.  




Soldier35 said:


> Published footage of the calculations of the operational-tactical missile complex "Iskander-K" and the launch of the cruise missile R-500 in Ukraine. Iskander is a family of operational and tactical missile systems that has been in service with the Russian army for 15 years. Iskander is not a single missile system, but several modifications of various missiles. The basis of the Iskander-K complex is the 9K728 cruise missile, also known as the R-500, the launch of which is shown in the video. The missile has incredible accuracy, and is capable of hitting targets with an accuracy of up to two meters. Officially, the range of the R-500 missile is about 500 kilometers, but many sources believe that the actual range of the missile is 2000-2500


‘Incredible accuracy’
  Sorry when NATO PGM have a sub 1m PER, you can’t claim incredible accuracy when the Islanders-K has a PER of over 250m.  That’s like legitimately thousand times worse. 
   I guess when you are that awful you just resort to tactics like mass fires and targeting civilian city blocks.


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> I don’t think the CAF have any OUTCAN to St. Petersburg


Maybe when Finland annexes it?


----------



## Czech_pivo

Good2Golf said:


> Maybe when Finland annexes it?


I'd be happy in the Finn's looked to regain their old 1940 borders.


----------



## Telegrammer

HiTechComms said:


> Go watch an American that spent 8 years in the region doing Journalism. Go back to his first video and tell me that is propaganda.
> https://www.youtube.com/c/PatrickLancasterNewsToday/videos


There's also Graham Philips's channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/GrahamPhillipsUK who's been there during the 2014 insurgency.


----------



## The Bread Guy

TacticalTea said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509287796065845250
> _facepalm_


----------



## NavyShooter

3.6 roentgens...not great....not terrible...


----------



## Kirkhill

Russian Airborne (VDV) command losses


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tsy3ss


----------



## HiTechComms

Since you guys love cheering on the show. Here is the non filtered or sanitized twitter less craziness. NSFL/NSFW. Be warned.

Enjoy the degeneracy of human nature. I'm out.

Russian and Ukrainian language is needed. You can get a translator addon in a browser.









						USEFUL TELEGRAM CHANNELS FOR OSINT/VIDEOS/BREAKING NEWS
					

UKRANIAN CHANNELS (it's not an exhaustive comprehensive list, i'll add more channels as i find them) NEWS https://t.me/russian_losses (live russian losses, data from oryx) https://t.me/ukr_pics/ ukraine happening telegram, translations of videos https://t.me/+6vYf58Bh_V0xYmYy (this is the biggest...



					rentry.org
				











						cringe
					





					rentry.org
				











						Previous lists
					

18th of March, 2022: https://rentry.org/nhod2 16th of March, 2022: https://rentry.org/ovdsv (main one): https://rentry.org/647x6 Instructions For the video list post when starting a new thread: Delete "old" videos to make room as necessary for new videos. If there are no more "old&...



					rentry.org
				












						Bellum Acta - Intel, Urgent News and Archives
					

Bellum Acta defines itself as a "not-so-Impartial" Crisis-focused NEWS aggregator which usually posts on Current News & Geopolitics  For support BTC: 1GKSaSfGZpVFcfRbgX3X3Ujdnjo2zsbngG  For personnal contact: @reguluz




					t.me
				











						/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global
					

/CIG/ presents viewers a controversial blend of ultraright genopolitics with geopolitics. This includes an exposé on current news, history and social matters along with the public enlightenment gained from völkisch aesthetics.   Contact us @CIGtel_bot




					t.me
				











						Intel Slava Z
					

Intel slava is a Russian News aggregator who covers Conflicts/Geopolitics and urgent news from around the world.  Funded by Putin, Russian ministry of defence, FSB, GRU and SVR




					t.me
				




Preview
USEFUL TELEGRAM CHANNELS FOR OSINT/VIDEOS/BREAKING NEWS​UKRANIAN CHANNELS​(it's not an exhaustive comprehensive list, i'll add more channels as i find them)
_NEWS_
Ukraine Happening Pictures ukraine happening telegram, translations of videos
Всевидящее ОКО | Украина (this is the biggest telegram channel in Ukraine, if there is a video worth seeing they post it, lots of exclusive videos).
ТРУХА⚡️Харьков + Украина🇺🇦 (large news channel, publish at lot of exclusive videos)
Харьков LIVE • Лайв • Лайф • Kharkov • Kharkiv (kharkiv local channel)
Мариуполь сейчас 🇺🇦 (mariupol local channel)
UKRCHAN 🇺🇦 (ukrainechan channel)
_GROUPS_
АЗОВ - Маріуполь (official telegram of Azov Battalion, ultranationalist volunteer battalion)
Чили и Ко Харьков 👁 (telegram of 'Chilli', the commander of Azov battalion in Kharkiv)
ФРАЙКОР (official telegram of Freikorps Org, a right wing volunteer battalion based in Kharkiv)
Батальён Кастуся Каліноўскага (Kastus Kalinouski Battalion, Belarussian partisans fighting in Ukraine)
Головне управління розвідки МО України (telegram channel of the Ukrainian intelligence directorate. obviously has to be taken with a pinch of salt. but useful to see their press releases etc)
_OTHER_
Анатолій Штірліц (videos and stuff)
ВатаХантеры (sometimes posts exclusive videos from the ground)
Легитимный
Київ Оперативний | Kyiv Operative
Ігор Мосійчук 🦏
Ищи своих ( captured russian soldiers )
ДСНС України
Лик Войны.
Украина 24/7 Новости
Чат Чернігів Оперативний
🚨⚠️Чернігів Оперативний⚠️🚨
RUSSIAN CHANNELS​Стрелков Игорь Иванович (telegram of Igor Strelkov, ex-FSB and former commander of all separatist forces in Donbass, does a daily analysis of the situation)
ANNA-NEWS|Новости|Сирия|Донбасс|Нагорный Карабах (news)
Ньюсач/Двач (telegram channel for 2ch /news/)
/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global (western reposter, has heavy pro-russian slant)
Kadyrov_95 (official chechen/kadyrov channel, it's 100% cheesy propaganda, good for a laugh)
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (war correspondence/news)
Сolonelcassad (war journalism)
Росич | Rosich (wagner group/russian SOF fan channel, posts zoomer edits and merch)


----------



## Remius

That’s a lot of stuff for someone who doesn’t care.

 Telegram…I’d be careful, people get internet Herpes there.   

You are the second person to promote this.


----------



## Telegrammer

rmc_wannabe said:


> Ah Christ there's two of them...


Perhaps Instead, why not keep an open mind and consider it Cultural Intelligence (CQ)? They just started teaching and introducing CQ in the CAF - reference It’s All About the People: Cultural Intelligence (CQ) as a Force Multiplier in the Contemporary Operating Environment 							| Journal of Conflict Studies

"Abandoning preconceived, superficial, or erroneous perceptions and actually endeavoring to          fully comprehend the “enemy” can provide invaluable insights into their attitudes, behaviours,          decision-making processes, and motivations.                    In all, CQ is an underused tool that provides enormous capability to empower military          personnel and assist them in achieving mission success.  It is a force multiplier that is relatively          inexpensive and, if properly harnessed, can furnish a return on investment far in excess of its          cost.  After all, conflict in general, and military operations specifically, are all about the people. "


----------



## Telegrammer

Remius said:


> Telegram…I’d be careful, people get internet Herpes there.
> 
> You are the second person to promote this.


He's not wrong. Unless you want to receive only highly curated and selective one-sided report, you might want to look at info from people on the ground (albeit, know how to navigate the infowar/psyops content).
Telegram is the #1 social media in the ex-USSR geos, much like WeChat in China. Also, consider that all western social media (Twitter, FB, IG, etc) are blocked in Russia, so the only way to see the Russian side of the story that is not from the official news, is on TG. 

If you are afraid of contracting a virus through the mobile app (iOS doesn't really get viruses afaik), you can use TG "web preview" option, through a secured browser with an AV system, and you should be good to go.


----------



## Telegrammer

HiTechComms said:


> Чили и Ко Харьков 👁 (telegram of 'Chilli', the commander of Azov battalion in Kharkiv)


Reportedly, this is the guy who was in charge in the so-called "fake Russian POW torture video".


----------



## Jarnhamar

Remius said:


> You are the second person to promote this.



Is he though?


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

FusMR said:


> Ok….
> 
> I won’t reply to all but only a few points.  Of course we will talk about getting involve with steel and bullets.  This is Army.ca, not Les Fille d’Isabelle, nor le Cercle des Fermières or GAC.ca web site.  We can all see what’s happening on the ground because most of us can see it without Twitter.
> 
> I can and I think must of us understand macroeconomic.  Even if I can see your point, I do not read the same effect nor have to agree with you interpretation.  We all understand it was very complex situation before the war.  It’s NOT the Ukraine that tried to take Moscow.  Putin put the fire in the house because in my view, you can’t decide for the other what they will do because you are loosing hair on the top of your head.
> 
> Regime change…seriously!!  It’s an open goal of Putin, denazifacation of Ukraine.  And POTUS said exactly what most people think.  This guy should not be President of Russia.  He did not say throw him out and explicitly said that point 2 days ago.
> 
> Having a view point from the other side is good.You have to understand the crowd to be able to make your point, which you don’t.
> 
> On this, have a good weekend 😀


Thank you for being the only person with the intelligence and maturity to actually follow the site rules when corresponding with others in this entire thread.

If MilPoints were still a thing I would give you 1000.

For the rest, I've already posted about this a few days ago, I'll refresh your memory in case you've forgotten:



Humphrey Bogart said:


> Good morning everyone,
> 
> I have just deleted a number of posts in this thread for "*Trolling*".
> 
> *If you can't manage your emotions towards certain opinions shared in this thread, I am going to remove your ability to participate in this thread.*
> 
> You may not agree with someone's opinion and that is completely fine but....
> 
> You will provide a rebuttal to their post, not attack them personally.
> 
> In the case of @HiTechComms  it's clear many/most don't share the same opinion as the member; however, throughout all their posts, the member has not once insulted another member.
> 
> I can't say the same for others.  Attack the idea, not the person.
> 
> We also have an ignore feature, it's very handy if you're a non-moderator and don't have to listen to everyone 😉
> 
> Thank you for your continued cooperation.
> 
> Milnet.ca Staff



Now this is going to be final warning on this.  If you don't like what someone posts, you can, IAW the site rules, debate with them.

If you are incapable of doing that, you have two other options:

1.  Ignore their posts
2.  Place them on your ignore list

Those are your three options.  I just deleted a pages worth of drive by flame posts from this thread.

We have a higher standard of expectations posting WRT posting here so if you want to engage in flame wars, you can feel free to exit stage right and head over to Reddit or Twitter.

Following this post, I am going to begin limiting people's ability to post in this thread if it continues.  

Milnet.ca Staff


----------



## Telegrammer

Since the topic of "trolling" was raised (and swiftly removed) - although soldier35 does look like a total bot, is it really wise to label anyone who disagrees with you on some points, as a "troll"?

What's better for overall mission success -  getting better cultural intelligence from various angles about the potential adversary, OR having soldiers underestimate the adversary, by drawing on information from twitter memes and seriously say things like "oh we will just send Ukrainians some tractors and then walk in and mop up the rest" like it's a walk in the park? (real discussions going on among serving members right now)


----------



## MilEME09

Big moves on the approaches to Mariupol 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509478272475832328


----------



## MilEME09

Telegrammer said:


> Since the topic of "trolling" was raised (and swiftly removed) - although soldier35 does look like a total bot, is it really wise to label anyone who disagrees with you on some points, as a "troll"?
> 
> What's better for overall mission success -  getting better cultural intelligence from various angles about the potential adversary, OR having soldiers underestimate the adversary, by drawing on information from twitter memes and seriously say things like "oh we will just send Ukrainians some tractors and then walk in and mop up the rest" like it's a walk in the park? (real discussions going on among serving members right now)


It's not about disagreement, it's about pushing information that has been proven false. Misinformation and disinformation is a big problem, and pushing it only makes it worse.


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

MilEME09 said:


> It's not about disagreement, it's about pushing information that has been proven false. Misinformation and disinformation is a big problem, and pushing it only makes it worse.


So we should just shut the thread down then,.....unless you believe every "Ukraine" tweet is 100 % factual??


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> It's not about disagreement, it's about pushing information that has been proven false. Misinformation and disinformation is a big problem, and pushing it only makes it worse.


Says the one who consistently pushes out tweets from unverified sources, but I digress 🤣

This entire thread is a stinking pile of garbage


----------



## Portnord

So before I dive into a sea of links...

I struggle to comprehend how the label Nazi sticks to these eastern European communities. Nazis were pretty strict about their narrow white supremacist vision and murderously hostile to Slavs among others. But I'll grant for argument's sake that Ukranian fascists (the ordinary nationalistic Italian kind) are not just a thing, but exist in notable numbers.

So by most accounts Ukraine is holding free elections, at least recently. That would make it a democracy, albeit with a fascist/nationalist political party. Basically like a lot of European Parliaments.

Russia holds elections, except that any viable candidates that are not Putin or loyal to him have an unfortunate tendency to get poisoned, imprisoned, or both. So effectively Russia has been ruled by one guy for the last couple of decades. He's constructed a personality cult around himself, pushes the narrative that Russia has fallen from a glorious past that must be recovered, and passes laws that prohibit the press from contradicting him. It's pretty much a textbook fascist dictatorship (again, the classic Italian style).

I'm fairly certain that both Russia and Ukraine have their fair share of criminals, liars and conmen, as do we all. So I wonder what can I possibly see that is going to make it seem that the fascist dictatorship invading the democracy because it dislikes one of their political parties might turn out to be a good thing.

On the other hand, flooding the zone with shit to make people unable to tell what is real is an actual disinformation tactic. Generally, anyone telling you to trust noone is either implementing that tactic, or has become a victim of it. Most information is curated without sinister purpose, because reality doesn't fit into a photograph, or a 5 minute news report, or a tweet.

A sea of links from a source with an axe to grind though? Nah, probably heavily curated.


----------



## Altair

Kirkhill said:


> Russian Airborne (VDV) command losses
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tsy3ss


When was the last successful large scale airborne op? Overlord?


----------



## Remius

U.K. intelligence chief says Putin's Plan B is "more barbarity against civilians" in Ukraine
					

U.S. intelligence shows "it is increasingly clear that Putin's war has been a strategic blunder," the White House said.




					www.axios.com
				




Interesting takes. 

Plan A essentially has failed. 

Plan B includes targeting civilians.  New influx of soldiers and concentrating on one axis of advance indicates a change of tactics and remains to be seen if that can turn things around for Russia.

Key consensus piece:

"So it is increasingly clear that Putin's war has been a strategic blunder that has left Russia weaker over the long term and increasingly isolated on the world stage."
What to take note of:


Both U.S. and British intelligence officials believe Russian forces were repositioning, rather than withdrawing.


----------



## Brad Sallows

Ukraine receives sympathy simply by not being the aggressor.  Undoubtedly Zelensky gets better PR than his predecessors would have.  Ukraine isn't necessarily an admirable country with wonderfully well-established democratic traditions and institutions.  But, again, it's not the aggressor.

"Nazi" or "fascist" in a Russian context is pretty much just "those other assholes".


----------



## Halifax Tar

Brad Sallows said:


> Ukraine receives sympathy simply by not being the aggressor.  Undoubtedly Zelensky gets better PR than his predecessors would have.  Ukraine isn't necessarily an admirable country with wonderfully well-established democratic traditions and institutions.  But, again, it's not the aggressor.
> 
> "Nazi" or "fascist" in a Russian context is pretty much just "those other assholes".


----------



## KevinB

Telegrammer said:


> Perhaps Instead, why not keep an open mind and consider it Cultural Intelligence (CQ)? They just started teaching and introducing CQ in the CAF - reference It’s All About the People: Cultural Intelligence (CQ) as a Force Multiplier in the Contemporary Operating Environment                             | Journal of Conflict Studies
> 
> "Abandoning preconceived, superficial, or erroneous perceptions and actually endeavoring to          fully comprehend the “enemy” can provide invaluable insights into their attitudes, behaviours,          decision-making processes, and motivations.                    In all, CQ is an underused tool that provides enormous capability to empower military          personnel and assist them in achieving mission success.  It is a force multiplier that is relatively          inexpensive and, if properly harnessed, can furnish a return on investment far in excess of its          cost.  After all, conflict in general, and military operations specifically, are all about the people. "


Generally the West fails writ large in this respect.
  The cast majority of the West expects everyone to see the world like them, and worse expects everyone to want a Western Style Government and a Capitalist Economic system.

 It is generally the reason we fail so terribly at Nation Building, and why we haven't been successful since Japan and the Marshal Plan in Western Europe post WW2.


----------



## Telegrammer

Brad Sallows said:


> Ukraine receives sympathy simply by not being the aggressor.  Undoubtedly Zelensky gets better PR than his predecessors would have.  Ukraine isn't necessarily an admirable country with wonderfully well-established democratic traditions and institutions.  But, again, it's not the aggressor.
> 
> "Nazi" or "fascist" in a Russian context is pretty much just "those other assholes".


I like your assessment. Everyone has a tendency to "root for the underdog". Zelensky, having a background in media and television, has been winning in the info-war front from Day 1.

Fighting Nazi/Fashists is simply a strong rallying cry and unifying purpose, that can be easily understood by all Russians (everyone in the country had someone in the family killed during 1941-45), and thus heavily exploited by the propaganda there.

(Not unlike one Nazi flag and one Confederate flag observed at a certain event couple of months ago opened up the opportunity for the entire event being heavily painted with the same brush - but that's opening another can of worms...)


----------



## WLSC

Telegrammer said:


> I like your assessment. Everyone has a tendency to "root for the underdog". Zelensky, having a background in media and television, has been winning in the info-war front from Day 1.
> 
> Fighting Nazi/Fashists is simply a strong rallying cry and unifying purpose, that can be easily understood by all Russians (everyone in the country had someone in the family killed during 1941-45), and thus heavily exploited by the propaganda there.
> 
> (Not unlike one Nazi flag and one Confederate flag observed at a certain event couple of months ago opened up the opportunity for the entire event being heavily painted with the same brush - but that's opening another can of worms...)


I can understand that cultural part.  You have however to realise that Putin know which word to use IOT influence ours.  It’s deliberate.


----------



## Weinie

KevinB said:


> Generally the West fails writ large in this respect.
> The cast majority of the West expects everyone to see the world like them, and worse expects everyone to want a Western Style Government and a Capitalist Economic system.
> 
> It is generally the reason we fail so terribly at Nation Building, and why we haven't been successful since Japan and the Marshal Plan in Western Europe post WW2.


Given the choice between U.S. and Western hegemony and it’s failings, and the alternatives, I accept our failings.


----------



## Dana381

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Thank you for being the only person with the intelligence and maturity to actually follow the site rules when corresponding with others in this entire thread.
> 
> If MilPoints were still a thing I would give you 1000.
> 
> For the rest, I've already posted about this a few days ago, I'll refresh your memory in case you've forgotten:
> 
> 
> 
> Now this is going to be final warning on this.  If you don't like what someone posts, you can, IAW the site rules, debate with them.
> 
> If you are incapable of doing that, you have two other options:
> 
> 1.  Ignore their posts
> 2.  Place them on your ignore list
> 
> Those are your three options.  I just deleted a pages worth of drive by flame posts from this thread.
> 
> We have a higher standard of expectations posting WRT posting here so if you want to engage in flame wars, you can feel free to exit stage right and head over to Reddit or Twitter.
> 
> Following this post, I am going to begin limiting people's ability to post in this thread if it continues.
> 
> Milnet.ca Staff



I have been staying out of this but I wanted to thank you for your stance on it. I agree totally with your position. Every one should have the freedom to say their opinion without personal attacks. We are adults and we can disagree with each other in a respectful manner.

We need to remember that life is about perspective and our opinions are made and changed by our perspective. Opinions are almost never changed by negative feedback. We don't know others life story and why they think what they do, we can only assume. Debate, done properly is healthy for both sides. I used to be in the F-35 is the wrong plane for Canada camp but my mind was changed by knowing the facts, not by someone calling me stupid.

I don't often read past the first paragraph of most pro-russia posts simply because they are soooooo long and I can barely keep up with the discussion as it is. The ones I have read don't engage in personal attacks.

I personally believe Putin is in the position he is because his subordinates were afraid to disagree with him or be honest about the state of the Russian armed forces. We need to listen to dissenting opinion and learn from it. The democratic government model is built on this principle, it dosent work without opposition.

Thanks for your work on the forum H.B. and B.M. I really enjoy army.ca forum and I learn something from it every day. You have a tough job. 

Cheers 🍻
Dana


----------



## TacticalTea

Kremlin demands rubles for gas, leaves currency loophole


----------



## The Bread Guy

Portnord said:


> ... I struggle to comprehend how the label Nazi sticks to these eastern European communities ...


Short, grossly oversimplified meme answer:  If you're an anti-Communist, you must be a pro-Nazi.  Or, as Brad put it ...


Brad Sallows said:


> "Nazi" or "fascist" in a Russian context is pretty much just "those other assholes".


Longer, boring, but slightly more nuanced opinion ...

With the history of Ukraine, they've been screwed over by different groups at different times.  During WW2 (which both sides are drawing from re:  narrative speaking points), Germany invaded UKR and tapped into anti-Soviet sentiment to get folks on board. 

Were some of them rabid anti-Semites?  Probably.  Most?  My take is there's a spectrum from "I'd like to actively and enthusiastically and support our new Nazi overlords" all the way to "if I don't do x, I'm going to get killed, as well as my family."   Think of it ranging from white to black through a range of shades of grey. 

After WW2, some of the Ukrainians who 1) hated the Soviets and 2)  supported/collaborated with the Germans kept fighting the Soviets, typically under the same groupings as during WW2 but maybe changing the names of the units.  Did the units contain Nazi's?  Very likely.  Did that make them "Nazi units"?  See white-to-grey above.

Drawing on Telegrammer's point ...


Telegrammer said:


> ... Not unlike one Nazi flag and one Confederate flag observed at a certain event couple of months ago opened up the opportunity for the entire event being heavily painted with the same brush ...


.... sometimes big groups joined by people with a range of motivations have a few truly vile actors, how do you paint the group:  "most of them except for a tiny percentage are just doing their best" or "if even a few bad apples are allowed to flourish, the whole group is tainted"?

Like all the RUS narrative about "nationalist" or "Nazi" battalions doing all those bad things, and painting the UKR military & society with that broad brush.  Azov & Donbass battalions number, let's say, 3000 members out of a total active & reserve UKR military of about 465K.  Even if every single Azov-ite & Donbass-ite is a raging white supremacist lunatic, that's 0.6% of the military.  Must be pretty busy to be all OVER Ukraine doing all the bad shit, right? 

How "insurrectionist" was the truck protest in Ottawa because some out of the very many, at one point, espoused kicking the current government out? 

How "terroristic" is AntiFa because some out of the very many are trashing businesses? 

How "seditious" was the Capitol riots because some out of the very many wanted to stop the vote confirmation process?

How "riddled with sexual abuse" is the Canadian military because some out of the very many are idiots?

To someone who believes in what the Ukrainians want, Ukraine likely falls into the "most of them except for a tiny percentage are just doing their best" category.

To someone who believes in what the Russians want, Ukraine likely falls into the "if even a few bad apples are allowed to flourish, the whole group is tainted" category.

Rant off ...


----------



## KevinB

Weinie said:


> Given the choice between U.S. and Western hegemony and it’s failings, and the alternatives, I accept our failings.


Understand the failings, don't accept them, and don't try to push it on others...

We all need to understand that not everyone is like us, and that in itself isn't a bad thing.   Doing bad things makes people bad, being different is necessarily bad, unless it's also doing bad things.
  I met some fantastic people all over the world, they didn't all have the same views, I got along with so many folks because I didn't go out of my way to push Western Culture writ large at them.   I also met some pretty terrible people, and not all of them I was allowed to kill.

I don't need to understand Putin's motives to understand what he is doing is unholy and evil.  I have some good ideas on his motives, but to me as an individual who doesn't need to sit down and talk to him (15 feet away or more) - it isn't relevant.
  I can understand why some Russian people believe in the invasion, but it doesn't make then right.   

When I see some posters droning on about the USSR 2.0 and what great folks they are, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know they are:
1) a paid troll of VVP Inc., or 
2) brainwashed by the utter tripe that VVP Inc. puts out.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Smoke 'em if you got 'em ....








						Philip Morris donates 500,000 packs of cigarettes to Ukrainian army
					

The tobacco company said it’s working on options for leaving the Russian market, joining scores of multinationals that are scaling back operations in the…




					o.canada.com


----------



## KevinB

Meanwhile 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509510466883698690


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509458405005664257


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509459758532726789


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509274365078249476


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> Understand the failings, don't accept them, and don't try to push it on others...
> 
> We all need to understand that not everyone is like us, and that in itself isn't a bad thing.   Doing bad things makes people bad, being different is necessarily bad, unless it's also doing bad things.
> I met some fantastic people all over the world, they didn't all have the same views, I got along with so many folks because I didn't go out of my way to push Western Culture writ large at them.   I also met some pretty terrible people, and not all of them I was allowed to kill.
> 
> I don't need to understand Putin's motives to understand what he is doing is unholy and evil.  I have some good ideas on his motives, but to me as an individual who doesn't need to sit down and talk to him (15 feet away or more) - it isn't relevant.
> I can understand why some Russian people believe in the invasion, but it doesn't make then right.
> 
> When I see some posters droning on about the USSR 2.0 and what great folks they are, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know they are:
> 1) a paid troll of VVP Inc., or
> 2) brainwashed by the utter tripe that VVP Inc. puts out.


I couldn't agree more! There is a strange paradox in "White" (UN's WEOG) culture, in which the stated tenets are tolerance and openness, yet majorities and institutions have a very hard time tolerating anything other than superficial differences.

It's like, "Yeah, bring in that diversity of skin colour or food! But don't you dare show a diversity of values or perspectives, especially ones that would run against our dogma."


----------



## mariomike

KevinB said:


> what he is doing is unholy and evil.



That right there.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Altair said:


> Im struggling to find a way to agree with you without getting banned.


It's pretty easy, you just say:

"*I agree with you*"

Instead you decided to attempt an underhanded swipe at the site administrators, again, again and again.  

For that you're muted from this thread for the foreseeable future.

Milnet.ca Staff


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Smoke 'em if you got 'em ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Philip Morris donates 500,000 packs of cigarettes to Ukrainian army
> 
> 
> The tobacco company said it’s working on options for leaving the Russian market, joining scores of multinationals that are scaling back operations in the…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> o.canada.com


As a shareholder of MO, I'm good with this.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Czech_pivo said:


> As a shareholder of MO, I'm good with this.


Good stock to hold, pays a great dividend 😉

Consistently one of my best performers over a long period of time.


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Good stock to hold, pays a great dividend 😉
> 
> Consistently one of my best performers over a long period of time.


I had my portfolio divested of anything by them and other Cigarette companies -- I am proud of my unethical funds to a limit 
  Weapons of War - Check 
  Addictive substances - no check (and I say this as a decades user of chewing tobacco - that I wouldn't wish on anyone)


----------



## Czech_pivo

Reading that the UK is sending Arty and AV to Ukraine, possibly a deal of ex-Soviet equipment being sent over.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Good stock to hold, pays a great dividend 😉
> 
> Consistently one of my best performers over a long period of time.


Yes!  Have to love .90 cents USD coming every quarter.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Reading that the UK is sending Arty and AV to Ukraine, possibly a deal of ex-Soviet equipment being sent over.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509569173864730629


----------



## KevinB

Seems the Chechens have zero interest in actually fighting - just looking cool 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509585875717566464

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509541496608935946


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509522169339990017


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509244396381822978


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509570609776402432


----------



## KevinB

Good OS Map work here with timelines.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509518391362859015


----------



## KevinB

More Map work for those interested

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509590644171358213
@Soldier35 @HiTechComms - you should look at those


----------



## KevinB

Russia stripping the Kaliningrad garrison - the one place that is surrounded by NATO...
  Hmm, clearly Russia is very concerned about the vast NATO aggression 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509566714152902663


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509311174273294343


----------



## KevinB

There are times I feel sorry for Russians and don't want to kill them all, then I see this - and just want to nuke it to glass.

You will need a Russian translator to give you the rather revolting and disturbing commentary.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508897959064317952
Or the translated commentary here

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509241251475959818


----------



## Maxman1

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Good stock to hold, pays a great dividend 😉
> 
> Consistently one of my best performers over a long period of time.



I have a few shares of British-American Tobacco (parent company of Imperial and brands like du Maurier). It's a good performer and a good dividend.


----------



## Maxman1




----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> There are times I feel sorry for Russians and don't want to kill them all, then I see this - and just want to nuke it to glass.
> 
> You will need a Russian translator to give you the rather revolting and disturbing commentary.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508897959064317952
> Or the translated commentary here
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509241251475959818


Funny that she would say Russian women are the most beautiful when she herself doesn't have much to be envious about.

Anyways, I wish her invasive compatriots to find the heart to turn their feet around and march home. Failing that, a swift and uneventful death would do.


----------



## OldSolduer

Maxman1 said:


>


I saw this article this morning on FB. Reposted it.

Care for troops = FAIL

Edit to add: I hope whoever told them to dig in - if even they knew - they suffer like these troops will suffer.

I not for the Russians invading Ukraine but this is about as nasty a war crime as you can get. Fuck me


----------



## Maxman1

KevinB said:


> There are times I feel sorry for Russians and don't want to kill them all, then I see this - and just want to nuke it to glass.
> 
> You will need a Russian translator to give you the rather revolting and disturbing commentary.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508897959064317952
> Or the translated commentary here
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509241251475959818


----------



## Colin Parkinson

OldSolduer said:


> I saw this article this morning on FB. Reposted it.
> 
> Care for troops = FAIL
> 
> Edit to add: I hope whoever told them to dig in - if even they knew - they suffer like these troops will suffer.
> 
> I not for the Russians invading Ukraine but this is about as nasty a war crime as you can get. Fuck me


Saw this in another forum, a lot of people with good knowledge of the area are wondering if it's BS. Apparently the forest was razed and buried with new plants on top. Unless they dug trenches in an area where very contaminated material from the core buildings was buried, it's unlikely they gotten a significant dose.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Colin Parkinson said:


> Saw this in another forum, a lot of people with good knowledge of the area are wondering if it's BS. Apparently the forest was razed and buried with new plants on top. Unless they dug trenches in an area where very contaminated material from the core buildings was buried, it's unlikely they gotten a significant dose.


Yep, It's unconfirmed at this point and not known if it's actually true.

The IAEA has kept open comms with Moscow and is in the process of spooling up a team to Chernobyl.

Also Russia has begun the process of handing Chernobyl back to Ukrainian Authorities and is in the process of pulling out:






						Update 38 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine | IAEA
					






					www.iaea.org
				




They are maintaining control of Enerhodar NPP though and it's currently operational.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> ... Russia has begun the process of handing Chernobyl back to Ukrainian Authorities and is in the process of pulling out:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Update 38 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine | IAEA
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.iaea.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> They are maintaining control of Enerhodar NPP though and it's currently operational.


... not to mention moving a bit of the oversight from the Moscow office of an NGO to the Paris office








						World Association of Nuclear Operators transfers all Ukrainian NPPs to Paris center - Energoatom
					

The World Association of Nuclear Operators (WANO) has transferred the operator of all Ukrainian nuclear power plants, Energoatom, from the Moscow to the Paris center.




					en.interfax.com.ua


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Yep, It's unconfirmed at this point and not known if it's actually true.
> 
> The IAEA has kept open comms with Moscow and is in the process of spooling up a team to Chernobyl.
> 
> Also Russia has begun the process of handing Chernobyl back to Ukrainian Authorities and is in the process of pulling out:


Lets be honest they aren't handing it over - they are withdrawing before being cut off and destroyed there...



Humphrey Bogart said:


> Update 38 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine | IAEA
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.iaea.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> They are maintaining control of Enerhodar NPP though and it's currently operational.


Currently in control as the UA hasn't yet counterattacked to isolate that


----------



## Brad Sallows

Must be getting close to the time at which someone posts a snippet of Bob Hoskins telling the commanders to stop shitting their pants.


----------



## KevinB

It appears to be the "now with air cooled venting" version of captured...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509621298154151945


----------



## Colin Parkinson

KevinB said:


> Lets be honest they aren't handing it over - they are withdrawing before being cut off and destroyed there...
> 
> 
> Currently in control as the UA hasn't yet counterattacked to isolate that


i wonder if the local commanders will consent to a peaceful withdraw and exchange of the handover of control. As I recall the staff currently there were volunteer that opted to stay to manage the reactor?


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509630424007553028


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> It appears to be the "now with air cooled venting" version of captured...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509621298154151945


"Da, Comrade. They're speed holes. They make the AFV go faster."


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509293302667169797

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509644373247598594


----------



## YZT580

OldSolduer said:


> I saw this article this morning on FB. Reposted it.
> 
> Care for troops = FAIL
> 
> Edit to add: I hope whoever told them to dig in - if even they knew - they suffer like these troops will suffer.
> 
> I not for the Russians invading Ukraine but this is about as nasty a war crime as you can get. Fuck me


bad when your war crime is against your own troops


----------



## The Bread Guy

rmc_wannabe said:


> "Da, Comrade. They're speed holes. They make the AFV go faster."


Gotta give the interior a brighter, more open feel given all the extra light ....


----------



## Spencer100

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509293302667169797
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509644373247598594


In this thread they say that their UAF pilots could learn to fly a 15 or 16 in 2 - 3 weeks.  This I find hard to believe.  Get off the ground sure. Fight it....not so sure.  I'm not a fighter pilot or any pilot...but this is a may be I little far stretch.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Gotta hurt when you have to air a bit of dirty laundry publicly - this from today's end-of-day UKR President's update ....


> ... today another decision was made. Regarding antiheroes. Now I do not have time to deal with all the traitors. But gradually they will all be punished.
> 
> That is why the ex-chief of the Main Department of Internal Security of the Security Service of Ukraine Naumov Andriy Olehovych and the former head of the Office of the Security Service of Ukraine in the Kherson region Kryvoruchko Serhiy Oleksandrovych are no longer generals.
> 
> According to Article 48 of the Disciplinary Statute of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, those servicemen among senior officers who have not decided where their homeland is, who violate the military oath of allegiance to the Ukrainian people as regards the protection of our state, its freedom and independence, will inevitably be deprived of senior military ranks. Random generals don't belong here! ...


----------



## Skysix

Spencer100 said:


> In this thread they say that their UAF pilots could learn to fly a 15 or 16 in 2 - 3 weeks.  This I find hard to believe.  Get off the ground sure. Fight it....not so sure.  I'm not a fighter pilot or any pilot...but this is a may be I little far stretch.


For an experienced fighter pilot it is more a case of learning the  new weapons systems than of flying the bird. Would they be as good at it? No. But combat tends to sharpen focus on the essential over the nice to know. These days much of the weapons systems are computer controlled. Once you get a potential target alert and you acknowledge it as hostile, then a lock on signal you just authorise the launch and move on to the next threat.

Any fast air jocks feel free to re-educate me. Fling wing is more my thing.


----------



## Skysix

Good analysis of why the west's read of Putin's intentions were so far off









						Is Russia’s Invasion a Case of Coercive Diplomacy Gone Wrong? - War on the Rocks
					

Editor’s note: Don’t miss our comprehensive guide to Russia’s war against Ukraine.   Conventional wisdom can change quickly. Whereas many



					warontherocks.com


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Skysix said:


> For an experienced fighter pilot it is more a case of learning the  new weapons systems than of flying the bird. Would they be as good at it? No. But combat tends to sharpen focus on the essential over the nice to know. These days much of the weapons systems are computer controlled. Once you get a potential target alert and you acknowledge it as hostile, then a lock on signal you just authorise the launch and move on to the next threat.
> 
> Any fast air jocks feel free to re-educate me. Fling wing is more my thing.



SSM did post about that (pages and pages ago now)....









						Ukraine - Superthread
					

Based on releases of intercepts, Vlad seems to be much more likely to take a few to the back of the head if he tries that plan.   His own team doesn’t seem to be very happy with the current situation.   It should be becoming increasingly obvious to everyday Russians that Putin doesn't have their...




					army.ca


----------



## MilEME09

Seige of Sumy has been broken


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509674511754485761


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509701889956487176

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509708773404905475


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509653264991764487


----------



## TheProfessional

HiTechComms said:


> I don't. Here go watch 8 years of this guys channel, no one else cared.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/c/PatrickLancasterNewsToday/videos
> 
> 
> 
> Don't care. I will not care until its in my back yard.


Patrick Lancaster has been featured on Alex Jones Info Wars and has published questionable stuff in Ukraine, like this .

Not surprised you'd mention him though.


----------



## MilEME09

Bold move Ukraine 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509751661488746517


----------



## ModlrMike

Can I offer you a tissue for that bloody nose?


----------



## Prairie canuck

Moscow is about 750km from Kharkiv. I wonder if .. They wouldn't would they?


----------



## Skysix

Not sure if this qualifies as Russian or Ukrainian propoganda. Either way, sadly funny. The VDV has endured tremendous losses.









						Ukrainian Military Redubs Russian VDV Recruitment Song
					

The Ukrainian Military continues to clown on the Russian Army. This time they've dubbed over a famous Russian Airborne recruiting advertisement to make it a more accurate to the present situation.




					funker530.com


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> Bold move Ukraine
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509751661488746517




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509761929761361922
Further footage, showing a different angle of the helo's action (and cats scurrying away).


----------



## Good2Golf

“Special Climate Control Operation”


----------



## The Bread Guy

RUS lessons learned:  tractors the problem?  No problem ....








						Russian troops take agri equipment stolen in Melitopol to Chechnya, Russia
					

On March 31, Russian forces who invaded Ukraine robbed the dealer center of the Agrotek (LLC Agrotek-invest, Dnipropetrovsk region) in Melitopol (Zaporizhia region) and took four pieces of agricultural machinery worth EUR 1 million to Chechnya.




					en.interfax.com.ua
				




Latest stats below from UKR mil int ...

... and you know it's not going well for Putin & Co. when (RUS independent media link) ....








						Russia Offers to Educate Depardieu on Ukraine - The Moscow Times
					

The Kremlin on Friday offered to "explain" Moscow's actions in Ukraine to French actor Gerard Depardieu after he denounced Russian President Vladimir Putin's "crazy, unacceptable excesses."




					www.themoscowtimes.com


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509804375413338113

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509850258876116998


----------



## KevinB

Just nonchalantly kicking these AT mines off the road...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509841451164782595


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509663589262663687


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509841692001722381


----------



## KevinB

Ukraine war: Gruesome evidence points to war crimes on road outside Kyiv
					

The BBC finds the charred remains of civilians on a highway where Russian troops had stationed tanks.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509760754395885570


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509881914718572553


----------



## Remius

Paul Wells: 'Don’t underestimate the power that comes from the will to fight.’
					

Paul Wells speaks to Lt.-Col. Melanie Lake, who recently returned from training operations in Ukraine.




					theline.substack.com
				




Good article and Interview with LCol Lake.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Ukraine war: Gruesome evidence points to war crimes on road outside Kyiv
> 
> 
> The BBC finds the charred remains of civilians on a highway where Russian troops had stationed tanks.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com


Standby for RUS counter-narrative of Nazis/nationalists having done it in 3, 2 ....



The Bread Guy said:


> ... and you know it's not going well for Putin & Co. when (RUS independent media link) ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia Offers to Educate Depardieu on Ukraine - The Moscow Times
> 
> 
> The Kremlin on Friday offered to "explain" Moscow's actions in Ukraine to French actor Gerard Depardieu after he denounced Russian President Vladimir Putin's "crazy, unacceptable excesses."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.themoscowtimes.com


The Kremlin's response?  Watch your tea and don't stand too close to windows above the second floor (OK, that was my paraphrase)








						Gerard Depardieu: Kremlin responds to actor's Putin criticism
					

The French-born actor had accused the Russian president of "crazy, unacceptable excesses" in Ukraine.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Remius said:


> Paul Wells: 'Don’t underestimate the power that comes from the will to fight.’
> 
> 
> Paul Wells speaks to Lt.-Col. Melanie Lake, who recently returned from training operations in Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> theline.substack.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Good article and Interview with LCol Lake.


Could you put LCol Lake in charge of the Reserves?


----------



## MilEME09

Balls of steel mission ti Mariupol 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509890624358658061


----------



## armrdsoul77

Skysix said:


> Not sure if this qualifies as Russian or Ukrainian propoganda. Either way, sadly funny. The VDV has endured tremendous losses.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian Military Redubs Russian VDV Recruitment Song
> 
> 
> The Ukrainian Military continues to clown on the Russian Army. This time they've dubbed over a famous Russian Airborne recruiting advertisement to make it a more accurate to the present situation.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> funker530.com


SEAD guitar solo


----------



## Good2Golf

The difference in orders passed down from a guy  at the end of a long table, vs those with the will to fight for their existence.


----------



## Portnord

Same youtuber analyzing, long but nuanced. He is getting me to consider powerpoint may not be entirely evil in the hands of someone who actually has something to say.


----------



## armrdsoul77

Just Pick A Fighter To Start Training Ukrainian Pilots On Now


----------



## Quirky

armrdsoul77 said:


> Just Pick A Fighter To Start Training Ukrainian Pilots On Now


 
Who's going to pick up the maintenance slack? Western fighters need significant amounts of maintenance and logistical support to keep flying.


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509909610982871051
The article rather asks if western populations have the patience and willingness to put up with a few austerities to protect our collective ways of life.


----------



## YZT580

Quirky said:


> Who's going to pick up the maintenance slack? Western fighters need significant amounts of maintenance and logistical support to keep flying.


Why is it that our reaction is always negative?  We have lost the confidence to just go out and do something but instead we run the idea down with potential obstacles to the point where we do nothing at all.  This is visible in every thread dealing with equipment or staffing.  The one lesson we should be taking home from the Ukraines is there is always a solution if there is the will to achieve it.  Collectively we are flat earthers.  There is no world west of the Azores.  You will sail off the edge


----------



## OldSolduer

YZT580 said:


> Why is it that our reaction is always negative?  We have lost the confidence to just go out and do something but instead we run the idea down with potential obstacles to the point where we do nothing at all.  This is visible in every thread dealing with equipment or staffing.  The one lesson we should be taking home from the Ukraines is there is always a solution if there is the will to achieve it.  Collectively we are flat earthers.  There is no world west of the Azores.  You will sail off the edge


Just a minute....he brings up a good point. Maintenance and logistics are part of it and no one bothers to consider them.


----------



## YZT580

OldSolduer said:


> Just a minute....he brings up a good point. Maintenance and logistics are part of it and no one bothers to consider them.


agreed but it is not an insurmountable problem.  With the right incentives i.e. money, there are literally hundreds of recently retired service personnel with the experience who would contract out for a year or two whilst Ukraine's are trained either by them or at bases overseas.  (solution one).  Poland offered their fleet in exchange for F16's and the like.  Where were their mechanics going to come from?  What is required is the WILL


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

"Tow a 40 ton tank eh?"

Well isn't that impressive, the local farmers don't need to help tow them any more then??


----------



## Brad Sallows

"The main task of the sapper robot is to make passages in minefields and quickly clear mine areas just in time to use them to fall back."


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> Today, two Ukrainian MI-24 helicopters flew into Russian airspace and attacked an oil depot in Belgorod. It was difficult to spot the helicopters because they were flying at an ultra-low altitude, the oil storage was hit by unguided S-8 missiles. Strong fire breaks out at oil depot in Belgorod


@Soldier35 So let me get this right…Ukrainians flew 40-year old Soviet-vintage helicopters across the impenetrable Soviet Russian border, and because they weren’t flying at Icarus-like stratospheric altitudes like all the Russian helicopters that have been shot down in the Russian invasion “special military operation”, and even though using an antique late-1970s vintage unguided rocket, destroyed a well-defended important RF logistical facility?

That seems inconceivable!


I’m beginning to wonder if you are actually a very intelligent Ukrainian pretending to be Russian, spreading evidence of Russian military incompetence, to demoralize Russian soldiers to surrender.  🤔


----------



## Quirky

YZT580 said:


> Why is it that our reaction is always negative?  We have lost the confidence to just go out and do something but instead we run the idea down with potential obstacles to the point where we do nothing at all.  This is visible in every thread dealing with equipment or staffing.  The one lesson we should be taking home from the Ukraines is there is always a solution if there is the will to achieve it.  Collectively we are flat earthers.  There is no world west of the Azores.  You will sail off the edge



This isn't like dropping off a Ford focus. Western fighters are inherently complicated that need significant support in personnel, parts and other logistics. Developing something like this for the Ukrainians will take years, you and that article make it seem like we can just drop off a 12 pack of F-15s/F-16s and they'll be in sustained operations tomorrow. Polish Mig-29s make more sense in the short term and even then it wasn't approved. Keep feeding them A/A missiles in the meantime, they'll be more efficient in taking out Russian fighters than western fighters in the hands of Ukrainians.


----------



## Kirkhill

Portnord said:


> Same youtuber analyzing, long but nuanced. He is getting me to consider powerpoint may not be entirely evil in the hands of someone who actually has something to say.



So, again, back to my hobby horse.  The Danish Homeguard.

Free.

Men and Women.

Internally organized.

Self-Training.

Equipped with shoulder-fired weapons, communications and UNIFORMS to separate them from the general population

For local operations.  

For internal security (keeping streets free of saboteurs)

For Vital Point protection

For use in times of National or Local disruption when the normal economy breaks down


Again,  the numbers.

Denmark 5,800,000
Canada 38,000,000  (6.8:1)


Military age18 for voluntary serviceConscriptionYes, for malesAvailable for
military service1,620,678 males, age 18-60 (2016),
1,584,495 females, age 18-60 (2016)Fit for
military service1,088,751, age 18-60 (2016)Reaching military
age annually39,465[1] (2016)Active personnel48.700 military & 5,274 civilian (2017)[2]Reserve personnel12,000 + 51,000 volunteers in the Home GuardDeployed personnel806 (30 May 2018)[3]

Of the Home Guard (45-51,000 depending on source)

Roughly 2/3 are defined as "in the Homeguard Reserve" ie not parading - retained as part of the mobilization process - organized and available in extremis

1/3 are "active Homeguard", regularly parading, learning, training, volunteering.   Some portion retain arms at home.  Some portion available for immediate call out in support of local authority.  Some portion volunteering to serve alongside the Active Regular Force on deployment.

50,000 Danes translates into over 300,000 Canadians 
2/3 of 300,000 volunteers willing in extremis = 200,000
1/3 of 300,000 volunteers regularly parading = 100,000 .  That is equivalent to Perrin Beatty's 90,000 Vital Point guards.

And this is on top of the Active Force (Danish 48,700 military and 5,274 civilians canadianized by 6.8 to 331,000 and 35,000 respectively) and a Reserve force of 12,000 Danes canadianized to 82,000.

35,000 Civilians
330,000 Active Regulars
82,000 Active Reserve
100,000 Active Homeguard
200,000 Reserve Homeguard.

About 750,000 Canadians dedicated to National Defence if we followed the Danish model - on 1.35% of GDP

And it operates a Multi-National Division on deployment in the Baltics currently as well as maintaining the Danish Emergency Management Agency with a staff of 600, 400 volunteers and corps of 450 teenage conscripts that rotate through every 9 months.



			https://www.hjv.dk/sider/english.aspx
		










						Danish Emergency Management Agency - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				









						Danish Defence - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




The link below gives access to the Homeguard portal which describes organization, training, specialties and access to on-line self-education.






						Hjemmeværnets Grunduddannelse
					






					www.hjv.dk
				






> Home Guard Basic Training
> Utilities
> Frequently asked questions
> Documents
> Courses in Norway and Sweden
> Study circles
> Contact
> Most recent
> Leadership in the Home Guard
> Tutorials for Moodle





> Home Guard Basic Training​
> 
> Home Guard Basic Training​
> The Home Guard The basic education consists of 4 courses. All 4 courses must be completed within 3 years of enrollment in the Home Guard.
> 
> *Where can I take my HGU?*
> The courses are carried out by the Home Guard School and are held at the training centers around the country or the Marine Home Guard section at Slipshavn near Nyborg. You decide, in consultation with your sub-department head / deputy commander / training support officer, where you complete your HGU.
> HGU 2 is common to all branches of the Home Guard and contains basic topics such as weapons training, first aid, SINE terminal (radio system) and home guard members' help to the police. The training lasts 9 days and typically starts on Friday and runs until Sunday the following week.
> 
> In order to complete the Home Guard's Basic Training, it is necessary to be in generally good shape. If you are not used to moving around on a daily basis, it may be a good idea to go or run some walks in the period up to the start of the training.
> 
> *Bootcamp (guard soldier)*
> Instead of taking the training as four modules that can be separated in time and place, you can complete your entire basic training at once in a so-called 'Bootcamp'.
> 
> All members of the Army Home Guard (incl. The Business Home Guard) and the Air Home Guard can take the Bootcamp, and are trained the same, ie as a guard soldier.
> 
> For the Navy Home Guard crew members on the sailing units, the training is completed as four separate modules of 4-9 days.


----------



## Kirkhill

YZT580 said:


> agreed but it is not an insurmountable problem.  With the right incentives i.e. money, there are literally hundreds of recently retired service personnel with the experience who would contract out for a year or two whilst Ukraine's are trained either by them or at bases overseas.  (solution one).  Poland offered their fleet in exchange for F16's and the like.  Where were their mechanics going to come from?  What is required is the WILL


I agree entirely.

Rather than taking a look at a problem and deciding how we can overcome it with the least cost solution we seem to have a tendency to stop the discussion right there and say "can't be done".


----------



## Good2Golf

@Kirkhill  Don’t forget to add the “entitled/protected privilege” factor for majority of Canadians, making them less inclined on the whole to care (demonstrably/meaningfully) about anyone else than themselves. 

I’d apply a 0.05 to 0.10 multiplier to any population-based figures you output for Canada …


----------



## Halifax Tar

Kirkhill said:


> I agree entirely.
> 
> Rather than taking a look at a problem and deciding how we can overcome it with the least cost solution we seem to have a tendency to stop the discussion right there and say "can't be done".


That's how end up with more Hong Kongs and Dieppes.

I understand were just spit balling but woe to yea who ignore logistics and maintenance.


----------



## Kirkhill

> @Kirkhill  Don’t forget to add the “entitled/protected privilege” factor for majority of Canadians, making them less inclined on the whole to care (demonstrably/meaningfully) about anyone else than themselves.
> 
> I’d apply a 0.05 to 0.10 multiplier to any population-based figures you output for Canada …



And there I can't argue with you.

That also plays into @YZT580 's "Why is it that our reaction is always negative?" meme.  Because we don't want to.

And why I was so impressed with LCol Lake's comments to Paul Wells



> “One big lesson — and this is at the broader level, not even at the military level — is how powerful hope-based communication is. That strong leadership and real, unrelenting determination in the communication coming from President Zelensky all the way down.
> 
> “Even while I was there, I was super-impressed with how all of Ukrainian society is prepared to mobilize to support their armed forces in the fight, and to support the defense. That was visible through organizations like Come Back Alive, this NGO that stood up in 2014, to help deliver equipment to front-line soldiers.
> 
> “*I’m always so impressed with the remarkable integration of civil society and the military there, and how the military is willing to be reinforced by the population*, from logistic support right now that Ukrainian soldiers are benefiting from. And on the contrary, that’s being denied to the Russians. You’ve got the whole population trying to work against them.











						Paul Wells: 'Don’t underestimate the power that comes from the will to fight.’
					

Paul Wells speaks to Lt.-Col. Melanie Lake, who recently returned from training operations in Ukraine.




					theline.substack.com
				




The RCAF seems to get it.   The RCN seems to get it.


----------



## OldSolduer

Good2Golf said:


> @Soldier35 So let me get this right…Ukrainians flew 40-year old Soviet-vintage helicopters across the impenetrable Soviet Russian border, and because they weren’t flying at Icarus-like stratospheric altitudes like all the Russian helicopters that have been shot down in the Russian invasion “special military operation”, and even though using an antique late-1970s vintage unguided rocket, destroyed a well-defended important RF logistical facility?
> 
> That seems inconceivable!
> View attachment 69830
> 
> I’m beginning to wonder if you are actually a very intelligent Ukrainian pretending to be Russian, spreading evidence of Russian military incompetence, to demoralize Russian soldiers to surrender.  🤔


Two words to describe Russian AD:

Mathias Rust.


----------



## Kirkhill

Halifax Tar said:


> That's how end up with more Hong Kongs and Dieppes.
> 
> I understand were just spit balling but woe to yea who ignore logistics and maintenance.



HT - I accept the need for logistics and maintenance.  But never once in my career has logistics or maintenance been allowed to block operations. They have delayed, confounded, confused and degraded operations but plants operate regardless.

And neither Hong Kong nor Dieppe were logistical or maintenance failures, unless  you count tank tracks jamming on the cobbles of Dieppe as a maintenance issue.

Logistics and maintenance need to be provided for.  Agreed.
But where there is a will there is a way....

Even it involves bailing wire, duct tape and WD40.


----------



## OldSolduer

Kirkhill said:


> Even it involves bailing wire, duct tape and WD40.


WD 40 is garbage. Rust Chek is far better.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Halifax Tar said:


> ... woe to yea who ignore logistics and maintenance.


Just ask Team Russia, right?


----------



## Halifax Tar

Kirkhill said:


> HT - I accept the need for logistics and maintenance.  But never once in my career has logistics or maintenance been allowed to block operations. They have delayed, confounded, confused and degraded operations but plants operate regardless.
> 
> And neither Hong Kong nor Dieppe were logistical or maintenance failures, unless  you count tank tracks jamming on the cobbles of Dieppe as a maintenance issue.
> 
> Logistics and maintenance need to be provided for.  Agreed.
> But where there is a will there is a way....
> 
> Even it involves bailing wire, duct tape and WD40.



I am unsure of your Mil experience but I will tell you, Log and Maint usually stop operations at the good idea fairy stage, as they should.   Having said that I can provide a multitude of examples where operations and plans should have been stopped because of Log/Maint, and weren't; only to end up a complete soup sandwich.

HK and Dieppe are examples of just going and hoping for the best.  You could argue HKs failure was its inability to get re supply...  But that's a long drawn out debate.

Log/Maint isn't something that just happens because of will or that someone else will take care of it.  If you fail to include them and understand their limitations then I have full expectation for your plan to fail.

Again if you want watch to a half cocked plan with shit support look at Russia V Ukraine right now.

Winning a battle is the easy party.  Maintaining that victory is where things get hard.


----------



## YZT580

Halifax Tar said:


> That's how end up with more Hong Kongs and Dieppes.
> 
> I understand were just spit balling but woe to yea who ignore logistics and maintenance.


No argument from me on that one but Kirkhill said exactly what I was trying to get across.  Take the idea and decide if it is good or bad.  If bad, shelve it.  If good identify all difficulties.  Take each difficulty and determine a solution then evaluate the solution for doability.  If doable than implement idea but don't say I can't until both you and an individual or group that isn't involved evaluates your idea, your identified difficulties and your solutions.  Simple but it works


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> So, again, back to my hobby horse.  The Danish Homeguard.
> 
> Free.
> 
> Men and Women.
> 
> Internally organized.
> 
> Self-Training.
> 
> Equipped with shoulder-fired weapons, communications and UNIFORMS to separate them from the general population
> 
> For local operations.
> 
> For internal security (keeping streets free of saboteurs)
> 
> For Vital Point protection
> 
> For use in times of National or Local disruption when the normal economy breaks down
> 
> 
> Again,  the numbers.
> 
> Denmark 5,800,000
> Canada 38,000,000  (6.8:1)
> 
> 
> Military age18 for voluntary serviceConscriptionYes, for malesAvailable for
> military service1,620,678 males, age 18-60 (2016),
> 1,584,495 females, age 18-60 (2016)Fit for
> military service1,088,751, age 18-60 (2016)Reaching military
> age annually39,465[1] (2016)Active personnel48.700 military & 5,274 civilian (2017)[2]Reserve personnel12,000 + 51,000 volunteers in the Home GuardDeployed personnel806 (30 May 2018)[3]
> 
> Of the Home Guard (45-51,000 depending on source)
> 
> Roughly 2/3 are defined as "in the Homeguard Reserve" ie not parading - retained as part of the mobilization process - organized and available in extremis
> 
> 1/3 are "active Homeguard", regularly parading, learning, training, volunteering.   Some portion retain arms at home.  Some portion available for immediate call out in support of local authority.  Some portion volunteering to serve alongside the Active Regular Force on deployment.
> 
> 50,000 Danes translates into over 300,000 Canadians
> 2/3 of 300,000 volunteers willing in extremis = 200,000
> 1/3 of 300,000 volunteers regularly parading = 100,000 .  That is equivalent to Perrin Beatty's 90,000 Vital Point guards.
> 
> And this is on top of the Active Force (Danish 48,700 military and 5,274 civilians canadianized by 6.8 to 331,000 and 35,000 respectively) and a Reserve force of 12,000 Danes canadianized to 82,000.
> 
> 35,000 Civilians
> 330,000 Active Regulars
> 82,000 Active Reserve
> 100,000 Active Homeguard
> 200,000 Reserve Homeguard.
> 
> About 750,000 Canadians dedicated to National Defence if we followed the Danish model - on 1.35% of GDP
> 
> And it operates a Multi-National Division on deployment in the Baltics currently as well as maintaining the Danish Emergency Management Agency with a staff of 600, 400 volunteers and corps of 450 teenage conscripts that rotate through every 9 months.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.hjv.dk/sider/english.aspx
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Danish Emergency Management Agency - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Danish Defence - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The link below gives access to the Homeguard portal which describes organization, training, specialties and access to on-line self-education.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hjemmeværnets Grunduddannelse
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.hjv.dk


Stop thinking outside the box, someone is going to notice and hammer you back in line.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Soldier35 said:


> ... Continuous fire from RPGs on the Armed Forces of Ukraine was carried out by Russian fighters of the unit of the National Guard of the Chechen Republic


... also seen here, pouring heavy fire onto (allegedly) Nazi/nationalist/Banderist traffic lights


----------



## Kirkhill

Czech_pivo said:


> Stop thinking outside the box, someone is going to notice and hammer you back in line.



They've been hammering for a while.  Either my head is too thick or I'm too big for the box.


----------



## Halifax Tar

YZT580 said:


> No argument from me on that one but Kirkhill said exactly what I was trying to get across.  Take the idea and decide if it is good or bad.  If bad, shelve it.  If good identify all difficulties.  Take each difficulty and determine a solution then evaluate the solution for doability.  If doable than implement idea but don't say I can't until both you and an individual or group that isn't involved evaluates your idea, your identified difficulties and your solutions.  Simple but it works



That pretty much what was done.  Idea presented... Judged... Found wanting... What's more ?


----------



## Kirkhill

Halifax Tar said:


> I am unsure of your Mil experience but I will tell you, Log and Maint usually stop operations at the good idea fairy stage, as they should.   Having said that I can provide a multitude of examples where operations and plans should have been stopped because of Log/Maint, and weren't; only to end up a complete soup sandwich.
> 
> HK and Dieppe are examples of just going and hoping for the best.  You could argue HKs failure was its inability to get re supply...  But that's a long drawn out debate.
> 
> Log/Maint isn't something that just happens because of will or that someone else will take care of it.  If you fail to include them and understand their limitations then I have full expectation for your plan to fail.
> 
> Again if you want watch to a half cocked plan with shit support look at Russia V Ukraine right now.
> 
> Winning a battle is the easy party.  Maintaining that victory is where things get hard.



It is fair to comment on my lack of military experience.

On the other hand I have 40 years of operational experience on land and sea in industrial settings, often challenged by limited seasonal campaign deadlines.  The season starts when the harvest is ready or the fish are running or the government says you have got 10 days starting now to catch your annual income and a thousand people are relying on the gear to be running.

Getting the job done is the priority.  By fair means or foul.  That is the situation the Ukrainians find themselves in.  They are operating on someone else's schedule.  They don't have the luxury of deciding IF they want to do the thing.  They are limited to discovering HOW they are going to do the thing.  The thing will get done.  Somehow.

Same Similarly  for the fishing industry.  It is a major disaster if a trawler doesn't leave the side of the dock in time for the season.  There are millions in capital and hundreds of livelihoods dependent on getting that ship to sea safely on time.

You are right to point out the Russian's lack of attention to detail.  And nobody is saying that logistics and maintenance shouldn't be addressed however every time that a plane fails to fly on time, every time a boat fails to sail on time, every time a soldier is not fed on time that has to be seen as an avoidable failure.   An inefficiency.

The Ukrainian pilots are flying aircraft with road signs embedded in them and without doing the requisite safety checks because it is more important to them to get that aircraft up and doing its job.

So I stand with YZT580.  The Ukrainian's war time requirements are not our peace time requirements.  Our requirements allow us the luxury of avoiding risk.  Their requirements mean they must accept risks that we find unacceptable.

Right now they are willing to accept the risks of jumping into an unfamiliar cockpit and conducting operations because they feel they must to help keep the Russians off the backs of their fellow citizens on the ground.

Their view and our view are vastly different because of our situations.

1940 saw teenagers with half a dozen hours in a Tiger Moth and an hour in a Spitfire being thrown into air battles.  That is where the Ukrainians are today.


----------



## KevinB

Quirky said:


> This isn't like dropping off a Ford focus. Western fighters are inherently complicated that need significant support in personnel, parts and other logistics. Developing something like this for the Ukrainians will take years, you and that article make it seem like we can just drop off a 12 pack of F-15s/F-16s and they'll be in sustained operations tomorrow. Polish Mig-29s make more sense in the short term and even then it wasn't approved. Keep feeding them A/A missiles in the meantime, they'll be more efficient in taking out Russian fighters than western fighters in the hands of Ukrainians.



Why?   The Ukrainian Air Force has specific asks, and Aircraft was part of that. 

Sure it will require some Sim time for pilots, or OJT with a good IP who can teach them quickly. 

Maintenance, I suspect we have a slew of spares more for new western AC than Ukraine or other former USSR nations have spares for their older FWP AC.  

Ground crew etc - where there is a will, there is a way.


----------



## Kirkhill

At risk of ruffling a lot of feathers I suggest there is a difference in attitude between the peacetime soldier and the soldier at war, or for that matter, that of a civilian in a war zone.

"I don't want to die." 
"I'm already dead."


----------



## Halifax Tar

Kirkhill said:


> It is fair to comment on my lack of military experience.
> 
> I was most defiantly not passing any sort of judgment on your mil experience. I have no idea who you are.  You could be GO/FO for all I know.  I was simply recognizing that I don't know that, but I will give my experience based advice anyways.  My deepest sincere apologies if you took that in another negative way, that was unintended.
> 
> On the other hand I have 40 years of operational experience on land and sea in industrial settings, often challenged by limited seasonal campaign deadlines.  The season starts when the harvest is ready or the fish are running or the government says you have got 10 days starting now to catch your annual income and a thousand people are relying on the gear to be running.
> 
> Getting the job done is the priority.  By fair means or foul.  That is the situation the Ukrainians find themselves in.  They are operating on someone else's schedule.  They don't have the luxury of deciding IF they want to do the thing.  They are limited to discovering HOW they are going to do the thing.  The thing will get done.  Somehow.
> 
> Same Similarly for the fishing industry. It is a major disaster if a trawler doesn't leave the side of the dock in time for the season. There are millions in capital and hundreds of livelihoods dependent on getting that ship to sea safely on time.
> 
> Remember the Ukrainians are being fed a steady stream of stores and material by NATO and the west.  Prior to the conflict NATO  country's were in the Ukraine providing training and further material build up.   Without either of these two legs the table that is the Ukraine would have fallen pretty fast.
> 
> You are right to point out the Russian's lack of attention to detail.  And nobody is saying that logistics and maintenance shouldn't be addressed however every time that a plane fails to fly on time, every time a boat fails to sail on time, every time a soldier is not fed on time that has to be seen as an avoidable failure.   An inefficiency.
> 
> The Ukrainian pilots are flying aircraft with road signs embedded in them and without doing the requisite safety checks because it is more important to them to get that aircraft up and doing its job.
> 
> So I stand with YZT580.  The Ukrainian's war time requirements are not our peace time requirements.  Our requirements allow us the luxury of avoiding risk.  Their requirements mean they must accept risks that we find unacceptable.
> 
> Right now they are willing to accept the risks of jumping into an unfamiliar cockpit and conducting operations because they feel they must to help keep the Russians off the backs of their fellow citizens on the ground.
> 
> Right now they have the Log/Maint to be able to fix the issues that come up when those place comes down.  Take that away and those stop flying very very fast.
> 
> Their view and our view are vastly different because of our situations.
> 
> 1940 saw teenagers with half a dozen hours in a Tiger Moth and an hour in a Spitfire being thrown into air battles.  That is where the Ukrainians are today.
> 
> Those teenagers had a huge log/maint chain behind them that kept those Spits and Hurries flying and fighting.





Kirkhill said:


> At risk of ruffling a lot of feathers I suggest there is a difference in attitude between the peacetime soldier and the soldier at war, or for that matter, that of a civilian in a war zone.
> 
> "I don't want to die."
> "I'm already dead."
> 
> I have every faith in what my experience has taught me.  Label me as you wish.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> It is fair to comment on my lack of military experience.
> 
> On the other hand I have 40 years of operational experience on land and sea in industrial settings, often challenged by limited seasonal campaign deadlines.  The season starts when the harvest is ready or the fish are running or the government says you have got 10 days starting now to catch your annual income and a thousand people are relying on the gear to be running.
> 
> Getting the job done is the priority.  By fair means or foul.  That is the situation the Ukrainians find themselves in.  They are operating on someone else's schedule.  They don't have the luxury of deciding IF they want to do the thing.  They are limited to discovering HOW they are going to do the thing.  The thing will get done.  Somehow.
> 
> Same Similarly for the fishing industry.  It is a major disaster if a trawler doesn't leave the side of the dock in time for the season.  There are millions in capital and hundreds of livelihoods dependent on getting that ship to sea safely on time.
> 
> *You are right to point out the Russian's lack of attention to detail.  And nobody is saying that logistics and maintenance shouldn't be addressed however every time that a plane fails to fly on time, every time a boat fails to sail on time, every time a soldier is not fed on time that has to be seen as an avoidable failure.   An inefficiency.*
> 
> The Ukrainian pilots are flying aircraft with road signs embedded in them and without doing the requisite safety checks because it is more important to them to get that aircraft up and doing its job.
> 
> So I stand with YZT580.  The Ukrainian's war time requirements are not our peace time requirements.  Our requirements allow us the luxury of avoiding risk.  Their requirements mean they must accept risks that we find unacceptable.
> 
> Right now they are willing to accept the risks of jumping into an unfamiliar cockpit and conducting operations because they feel they must to help keep the Russians off the backs of their fellow citizens on the ground.
> 
> Their view and our view are vastly different because of our situations.
> 
> 1940 saw teenagers with half a dozen hours in a Tiger Moth and an hour in a Spitfire being thrown into air battles.  That is where the Ukrainians are today.


It brings me back to the burnt out light bulb example I provided in the past. If you don't take care of the little things, ensuring that they are functioning, why would you think that the big things are going to work when you need them to?


----------



## ueo

Altair said:


> When was the last successful large scale airborne op? Overlord?


Wasn't  there a successful drop during Gulf 2? No details- think it was US  but memory fades with age don't cha know.


----------



## Good2Golf

The Bread Guy said:


> ... also seen here, pouring heavy fire onto (allegedly) Nazi/nationalist traffic lights


Awesome shooting!


----------



## Portnord

Kirkhill said:


> At risk of ruffling a lot of feathers I suggest there is a difference in attitude between the peacetime soldier and the soldier at war, or for that matter, that of a civilian in a war zone.
> 
> "I don't want to die."
> "I'm already dead."


Risk is a big picture assessment, a big tree of possible outcomes. You can predict at some point if I fly this aircraft without maintenance I have a 1% chance of engine failure and loss of airframe. The question is what happens if I don't fly. Just loss of pilot flight time? Or somebody gets a 1000lb bomb dropped on them? How much more are they worth than the aircraft if at all? There is only so much we can do with calculators and maintenance schedules.

Edit: may have replied to the wrong post, hope you get the gist of my agreement


----------



## ueo

Kirkhill said:


> HT - I accept the need for logistics and maintenance.  But never once in my career has logistics or maintenance been allowed to block operations. They have delayed, confounded, confused and degraded operations but plants operate regardless.
> 
> And neither Hong Kong nor Dieppe were logistical or maintenance failures, unless  you count tank tracks jamming on the cobbles of Dieppe as a maintenance issue.
> 
> Logistics and maintenance need to be provided for.  Agreed.
> But where there is a will there is a way....
> 
> Even it involves bailing wire, duct tape and WD40.


Hells bells... we've been doing it this way for years, I guess that makes us SME's.


----------



## Quirky

KevinB said:


> Why?   The Ukrainian Air Force has specific asks, and Aircraft was part of that.
> 
> Sure it will require some Sim time for pilots, or OJT with a good IP who can teach them quickly.
> 
> Maintenance, I suspect we have a slew of spares more for new western AC than Ukraine or other former USSR nations have spares for their older FWP AC.
> 
> Ground crew etc - where there is a will, there is a way.



Again, a western aircraft isn't a C7 that you just drop off with 'Shooting for Dummies' book and a box of ammo. All your points make sense but these are long-term solutions after there is some sort of ceasefire. If Mig-29s from Poland weren't approved, I highly doubt a US-made and designed fighter will be.


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> "1940 saw teenagers with half a dozen hours in a Tiger Moth and an hour in a Spitfire being thrown into air battles.  That is where the Ukrainians are today"



Exactly. If a pilot and plane are lost after taking out a few Russian weapon systems where we would have survived, they have achieved their mission. Saving Ukrainian lives. We (NoActionTalkOnly) are not risking any of OUR lives by giving them F/A or CAS aircraft.

We keep saying how Putin has destroyed Russia's standing in the world, well, "we" are destroying our credibility. We failed to live up to our promises in 2014 after Ukraine removed the one deterrent Russia respects that they had.

All we are doing now is 'lend lease' style supply while at the same time those that make that war material are going to get huge profits replacing it. And we sit in front of our screens in comfort while Ukrainians are dying and bleeding Russia / reducing their ability to actually threaten anyone else in a conventional war for a decade or two.


----------



## Blackadder1916

Kirkhill said:


> 1940 saw teenagers with half a dozen hours in a Tiger Moth and an hour in a Spitfire being thrown into air battles.  That is where the Ukrainians are today.



Could you provide some examples, please.









						WW2 Pilots | RAF Training | RAF Aircrew | RAF Museum
					

Explore the pathway taken to becoming a pilot during the WW2 and find out how pupils were trained and examined. Visit our online exhibitions for more.




					www.rafmuseum.org.uk
				





> The time taken to qualify as a pilot could vary. At the start of the war it could be as little as six months (150 flying hours). On average it took between 18 months to two years (200-320 flying hours).



RAF training pathway for pilots, 1941  RAF training pathway for pilots, 1944


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509919047785369600


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Demining the East European way


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509841525089394721


----------



## Halifax Tar

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509919047785369600



Is there such a beast as a non combat tank ?


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509897507328905227


----------



## McG

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509919047785369600


So, BMP-1 with western crew safety upgrades.


----------



## SupersonicMax

Halifax Tar said:


> Is there such a beast as a non combat tank ?


French tanks.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Quirky said:


> Again, a western aircraft isn't a C7 that you just drop off with 'Shooting for Dummies' book and a box of ammo.


That's just want pilots want you to think for job security. Kids play flight simulators all the time. Easy


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509820450255388673


----------



## The Bread Guy

SupersonicMax said:


> French tanks.


... with that one forward gear in case the enemy gets behind them (see also "Italian tank")?


----------



## Kirkhill

HT

I took no offence and I meant no offence.  Likewise my apologies if offence was taken.

I take your point about the need for log and maint.  And I take your point about the Spits (often rolling off the factory line to be shot down a couple of hours later with a young flyer on board). 

My continuing point is that when the battle rages the rule book needs to be reconsidered.

I can see a Ukrainian driver getting into an F16 and having to punch out only to sign out another F16 a couple of hours later. That is log and maintenance of a sort. 

Not what we would normally think of in peacetime.


As to the comment about death -

That isn't intended as a slur.  It is more of an observation concerning those who are about to die.  It is a common thread in military literature.  A sense of resignation or acceptance.

In peacetime everyone has families they want to return to.

That change in attitude changes everyone's perception of risk.

Edit - Oh.  And I am as far from a GOFO as you can get.  Although I have been told to Go FO on occasion.


----------



## Kirkhill

Blackadder1916 said:


> Could you provide some examples, please.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> WW2 Pilots | RAF Training | RAF Aircrew | RAF Museum
> 
> 
> Explore the pathway taken to becoming a pilot during the WW2 and find out how pupils were trained and examined. Visit our online exhibitions for more.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rafmuseum.org.uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> RAF training pathway for pilots, 1941 RAF training pathway for pilots, 1944View attachment 69833View attachment 69834



The Battle of Britain predates both of those training curricula.

I can agree that my hours are hyperbolically short but the fact remains that the standards were trimmed drastically to meet the demands of August and September 1940

The debate continues below.





__





						RAF Pilot Training Hours 1940
					

All There has been some debate about the actual training that RAF pilots received during the critical period leading up to and including the BOB.  I was able to go to the National Archives at Kew and found the file covering this topic.  It was a substantial file and the attached is a summary...



					ww2aircraft.net
				






> 6. Pilot exhaustion and personnel shortages plagued both sides.​For men on both sides of the Battle of Britain, combat fatigue was as persistent a foe as enemy Spitfires and Messerschmitts. German morale sank to dangerous lows as the battle wore on, and British airmen were beaten down by grueling 15-hour shifts and constant Luftwaffe bombing raids on their airfields. Pilots often flew several missions a day on only a few hours of sleep, and many took amphetamine pills just to keep themselves awake. In a bid to bolster its used up fighter force, *the RAF eventually cut the training time for new pilots from six months to just two weeks. Some recruits even ended up on the front lines with as little as nine hours’ experience in modern fighter planes.*











						10 Surprising Facts About the Battle of Britain
					

The battle was the first to be fought solely in the air—and it decided the fate of Great Britain during World War II.




					www.history.com


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509820450255388673





> Ukrainian Air Force
> 
> @KpsZSU
> ·
> Mar 31
> 
> Myth: The US and @NATO are providing #Ukraine with needed weapons. Allies are doing everything possible, short of direct involvement in the war. Truth: To date, our allies have not answered our call for air defense support (fighter jets and SAM). (11/16)
> 
> https://twitter.com/KpsZSU
> 
> Ukrainian Air Force
> 
> @KpsZSU
> ·
> Mar 31
> 
> We have not received the tools we need to defend our sky and achieve victory. In the sky, the greatest need is for fighter jets - F-15s and F-16s of the fourth generation or higher would be sufficient;  pilots can learn to fly these with just 2-3 weeks of training. (12/16)



Is it really our call if their pilots want to risk their lives to save their countrymen, even if they are increasing their risks by not taking all the training time we think we need?

I am reminded of Czech and Pole flyers in the Battle of Britain.  They were ultimately released for active service with the RAF before the RAF considered them ready.  Ultimately they made the decision themselves and the RAF acquiesced.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510006007652626432


----------



## Weinie

SupersonicMax said:


> French (WWII era Char B1) tanks.


FTFY.


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509999958988103683


----------



## Remius

Looks like Europe didn’t cave to Putin’s threat of shutting off the gas if not paid for in Russian money.









						Europe rejected Putin's ultimatum. So why is Russian gas still flowing? | CNN Business
					

Vladimir Putin's deadline has come and gone and Russian natural gas is still flowing to Europe.




					www.cnn.com
				




Was it a bluff that Europe called?


----------



## suffolkowner

Visual confirmed losses
					

Visual confirmed losses in Russia-Ukraine war 2022



					vizoryx.vercel.app
				




a more readable updated version of oryx's russian and ukrainian losses


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Remius said:


> Looks like Europe didn’t cave to Putin’s threat of shutting off the gas if not paid for in Russian money.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Europe rejected Putin's ultimatum. So why is Russian gas still flowing? | CNN Business
> 
> 
> Vladimir Putin's deadline has come and gone and Russian natural gas is still flowing to Europe.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Was it a bluff that Europe called?


Or a sign that not everyone is listening to Vlad??


----------



## The Bread Guy

Foreign legion recruiting firing alright, recruiting -- STOPS?  This from the National Post


> ... five weeks into the bloody war, Ukraine has temporarily halted recruitment into its foreign legion, with the government and other sources citing countries that have banned their citizens from enlisting and a flood of volunteers with limited military experience ...





> ... “There are multiple reasons (for halting recruiting) with one of them being the lack of firearms,” said the International Legion spokesman ...





> ... Former Liberal MP Borys Wrzesnewskyj, who is helping Ukrainian diplomats here vet applicants for the legion, said none of the potential fighters they have interviewed has gone over yet because “several weeks ago the Ministry of Defence put a pause on the mission.”
> 
> He and other Canadians helping in the recruitment or studying the war say Ukraine greatly appreciated the outpouring of support — but has come to realize it makes no sense sending foreign infantry neophytes to the front lines ...


Also, according to UKR media, UKR's parliament has a price list for ... donated hardware ...


> ... a combat aircraft (fighter and attack aircraft) is estimated at $1 million; combat helicopter at $500,000; multiple launch missile system at $25,000 to $35,000; tank, ground artillery (self-propelled) at $100,000; infantry fighting vehicle (landing), armored personnel carrier, armored reconnaissance and patrol vehicle at $50,000; military vehicle at $10,000; ship of the first or second rank at $1 million; ships of the third or fourth rank at $500,000; military ship at $200,000; small-sized combat vessel (reconnaissance) at $50,000 ...


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Foreign legion recruiting firing alright, recruiting -- STOPS?  This from the National Post


They are still taking SOF veterans into other parts of their Armed Forces.   

I suspect the fact that many of the volunteers have been more of a headache than they are worth has been an issue.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> ... I suspect the fact that many of the volunteers have been more of a headache than they are worth has been an issue.


Well, as others have said, they tried to process an awful lot of people through a system they set up not toooooooooooooo long after the bullets started flying, so perfection may be a high process standard.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

KevinB said:


> They are still taking SOF veterans into other parts of their Armed Forces.
> 
> I suspect the fact that many of the volunteers have been more of a headache than they are worth has been an issue.



There’s probably lots of well-intentioned folks who don’t realize how much they resemble Cpl Upham in reality.


----------



## McG

Eye In The Sky said:


> There’s probably lots of well-intentioned folks who don’t realize how much they resemble Cpl Upham in reality.


At least Upham could speak the local languages.


----------



## The Bread Guy

This sounds even more ominous for old Gerard ....








						Russia Offers to Educate Depardieu on Ukraine - The Moscow Times
					

The Kremlin on Friday offered to "explain" Moscow's actions in Ukraine to French actor Gerard Depardieu after he denounced Russian President Vladimir Putin's "crazy, unacceptable excesses."




					www.themoscowtimes.com


----------



## Spencer100

Eye In The Sky said:


> There’s probably lots of well-intentioned folks who don’t realize how much they resemble Cpl Upham in reality.


Upham? This guy could take out half the army.  VC with Bar some say he should have had a second Bar. Charles Upham - Wikipedia


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Different guy (Google Cpl Upham, Saving Private Ryan). 🙂


----------



## Spencer100

Eye In The Sky said:


> Different guy (Google Cpl Upham, Saving Private Ryan). 🙂


Oh got it


----------



## OldSolduer

OldSolduer said:


> Two words to describe Russian AD:
> 
> Mathias Rust.












						Mathias Rust - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org
				




FYI


----------



## MilEME09

ISW showing the latest big changes around Kyiv. Though I think this is Russia cutting their losses to focus in the east and south, but unless Belarus is taken out of the picture, that threat will continue to exist.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510044159796658176


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509619177656619013


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509619177656619013


They specifically mentioned F15s and F16s, kit they do not have. I wonder if this is part of an effort that they believe this war will be drawn out so they figure they need new kit not just existing or old kit. I mean if they have the pilots to say send a dozen to Poland to learn from the US for a month, do it, then fly back in with modern jets and take over the battle space.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> They specifically mentioned F15s and F16s, kit they do not have. I wonder if this is part of an effort that they believe this war will be drawn out so they figure they need new kit not just existing or old kit. I mean if they have the pilots to say send a dozen to Poland to learn from the US for a month, do it, then fly back in with modern jets and take over the battle space.


Local weather is turning to mud season.  Apparently the issues we have seen in Jan-March got nothing on April to late May…

Meaning even more road bound movements, and making the air war much more important.


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> They specifically mentioned F15s and F16s, kit they do not have. I wonder if this is part of an effort that they believe this war will be drawn out so they figure they need new kit not just existing or old kit. I mean if they have the pilots to say send a dozen to Poland to learn from the US for a month, do it, then fly back in with modern jets and take over the battle space.




Have no fear!  Sean Penn is here!









						Sean Penn calls on private sector to buy fighter jets, air defense systems for Ukraine
					

The founder of the CORE Charity Foundation and internationally acclaimed actor and director Sean Penn called on billionaires around the world to join efforts to acquire fighter jets and air defense systems to hand them over to Ukraine. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Skysix

The UAF claims its pilots could be trained to operate F-15s or F-16s within three weeks (of a wartime schedule of 12 hrs x 7 days a week) This is not as ambitious a timeline as many think. It is actually equivalent to the USAF experienced fighter pilot F-16 conversion course (6 peacetime weeks of 8.4 hrs x 5 days a week) without even cutting any corners. And right now they have more pilots than fighters for them to fly. A situation that is only going to worsen.









						Ukrainian MiG-29 Pilot's Front-Line Account Of The Air War Against Russia
					

A MiG-29 pilot talks tactics and tribulations in the desperate fight to keep Ukraine’s skies free from Russian domination.




					www.thedrive.com
				












						F-15 Eagle Driver On What It Is Like Flying Against Ukraine's Fighter Pilots
					

An F-15 pilot's firsthand account of how Ukrainian fighter crews' performance in training made it no surprise they have kept Russia at bay.




					www.thedrive.com


----------



## SupersonicMax

Skysix said:


> The UAF claims its pilots could be trained to operate F-15s or F-16s within three weeks (of a wartime schedule of 12 hrs x 7 days a week) This is not as ambitious a timeline as many think. It is actually equivalent to the USAF experienced fighter pilot F-16 conversion course (6 peacetime weeks of 8.4 hrs x 5 days a week) without even cutting any corners. And right now they have more pilots than fighters for them to fly. A situation that is only going to worsen.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian MiG-29 Pilot's Front-Line Account Of The Air War Against Russia
> 
> 
> A MiG-29 pilot talks tactics and tribulations in the desperate fight to keep Ukraine’s skies free from Russian domination.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedrive.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> F-15 Eagle Driver On What It Is Like Flying Against Ukraine's Fighter Pilots
> 
> 
> An F-15 pilot's firsthand account of how Ukrainian fighter crews' performance in training made it no surprise they have kept Russia at bay.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedrive.com


One big asumption in the USAF experienced fighter pilot conversion is that the tactics are the same, the weapons are the same, the systems are all similar. It’s a matter of learning how to fly the aircraft safely and one or two sorties to confirm tactical employment is sound. You don’t employ an AIM-120C the same way as a AA-10C or AA-12a, nor are Russian tactics the same as Western tactics. You can’t abbreviate the tactical employment part that much.


----------



## The Bread Guy

OldSolduer said:


> Two words to describe Russian AD:
> 
> Mathias Rust.


Ahh, a (prop?) blast from the past - good one!

Latest stats from UKR's info-machine ...

... and unconfirmed word from UKR's mil int of a huge yard sale in BLR for all the ... um ... initial de-nazification acquisitions from UKR (Google English from Ukrainian)


> In the city of Narovlya (Belarus), the occupiers set up a specialized bazaar selling property looted in Ukraine. The "range" of looting bazaar: washing machines and dishwashers, refrigerators, jewelry, cars, bicycles, motorcycles, dishes, carpets, works of art, children's toys, cosmetics. That is, everything that the Russians gained through looting and looting of civilians in Ukraine.
> 
> The occupiers are also trying to exchange stolen currency - dollars and euros. But due to internal restrictions on currency circulation, Belarusians are reluctant to agree to exchange transactions and offer the occupiers to turn to local banks. The Russians refuse, citing a ban on command.
> 
> Currently, the occupiers have organized a centralized supply of new lots of looting "goods" to its market. In particular, a convoy of trucks with various property - industrial goods and household items - is moving from the town of Buryn (Konotop district, Sumy region) towards the state border.
> 
> In the city of Mozyr (Belarus) there are Russian military KAMAZ trucks from which soldiers unload packages with things obtained by looting. The loot is sent to Russia by the Russian express delivery service SDEK.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509919047785369600


LOVING the irony of USSR 2.0 potentially facing stuff USSR 1.0 shared with their brotherly comrades back in the day!!!


> Germany has approved the delivery to Ukraine of several dozen infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) that originally belonged to the former communist East Germany amid criticism that Berlin is not sending enough military aid to Kyiv.
> 
> Berlin has given the green light for 56 vehicles of the type PbV-501 to be passed on from a Czech company to Kyiv, a spokesman for the defence ministry said on Friday.
> 
> He was responding to requests for confirmation of a media report that said 58 vehicles armed with canons and machine guns were to be supplied to Ukraine.
> 
> Berlin passed the IFVs on to Sweden at the end of the 1990s, which later sold them to a Czech company that now aims to sell them to Kyiv, according to Welt am Sonntag newspaper ...


#EverythingOldIsNewAgainComrade


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510124276891926532


----------



## Good2Golf

SupersonicMax said:


> One big asumption in the USAF experienced fighter pilot conversion is that the tactics are the same, the weapons are the same, the systems are all similar. It’s a matter of learning how to fly the aircraft safely and one or two sorties to confirm tactical employment is sound. You don’t employ an AIM-120C the same way as a AA-10C or AA-12a, nor are Russian tactics the same as Western tactics. You can’t abbreviate the tactical employment part that much.


That’s assuming USAF doctrine was/is optimized against the VKS, but maybe a hybrid training program specifically optimized to assess best current measures against both historic and contemporary response by the VSK would be best suited to assist UAF conversion training into western systems?


----------



## KevinB

SupersonicMax said:


> One big asumption in the USAF experienced fighter pilot conversion is that the tactics are the same, the weapons are the same, the systems are all similar. It’s a matter of learning how to fly the aircraft safely and one or two sorties to confirm tactical employment is sound. You don’t employ an AIM-120C the same way as a AA-10C or AA-12a, nor are Russian tactics the same as Western tactics. You can’t abbreviate the tactical employment part that much.


If you have no AA-10’s or AA-12’s it really doesn’t matter that that point.  The only way the Ukrainian Air Force will be able to continue operating very soon is if they transition to NATO Aircraft and air weapons.  

We looted the former WP NATO Members arsenals of missiles - as the rough/improvised field landing and take offs have rendered a lot of the Soviet era A2A missiles inoperative.  That cupboard is now empty - so the only option at this point is to start conversions.  

Even more Mig and SU AC at this time won’t really help for the ordnance for them isn’t available in quantities needed.


----------



## SupersonicMax

KevinB said:


> If you have no AA-10’s or AA-12’s it really doesn’t matter that that point.  The only way the Ukrainian Air Force will be able to continue operating very soon is if they transition to NATO Aircraft and air weapons.
> 
> We looted the former WP NATO Members arsenals of missiles - as the rough/improvised field landing and take offs have rendered a lot of the Soviet era A2A missiles inoperative.  That cupboard is now empty - so the only option at this point is to start conversions.
> 
> Even more Mig and SU AC at this time won’t really help for the ordnance for them isn’t available in quantities needed.


Agreed but equipping the UAF with Western planes and weapons won’t be of any (or very little) help without proper training.  There are countries that have Russian weapons still in their inventory but I doubt they want to part with them given their proximity to Russia.


----------



## Kirkhill

SupersonicMax said:


> One big asumption in the USAF experienced fighter pilot conversion is that the tactics are the same, the weapons are the same, the systems are all similar. It’s a matter of learning how to fly the aircraft safely and one or two sorties to confirm tactical employment is sound. You don’t employ an AIM-120C the same way as a AA-10C or AA-12a, nor are Russian tactics the same as Western tactics. You can’t abbreviate the tactical employment part that much.











						F-15 Eagle Driver On What It Is Like Flying Against Ukraine's Fighter Pilots
					

An F-15 pilot's firsthand account of how Ukrainian fighter crews' performance in training made it no surprise they have kept Russia at bay.




					www.thedrive.com
				






> Few truly appreciate and understand the capabilities of Ukraine's tactical jet aviators as well as pilots like Jersey, who has flown alongside them in training exercises in Ukraine. The California National Guard has enjoyed a close working relationship with Ukraine’s military and the Ukraine National Guard since 1993 under the State Partnership Program, which is dedicated to building global relationships and now includes 85 partnerships with 93 nations.
> 
> Ukraine became a charter member of the U.S. National Guard Bureau’s program along with Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia. Each country was paired with a state, and so began Ukraine’s close relations with California's Air National Guard.
> 
> “I don’t know how the National Guard Bureau decided on the pairings, but we were lucky in the California Air National Guard to have a state partner that was strategically important, and that was Ukraine,” explains Jersey. “In the summer of 2011, right before I joined the California Guard, the 144th Fighter Wing was still flying F-16s and it had a groundbreaking exercise at Mirgorod Air Base in Ukraine called Safe Skies 2011.”
> 
> The exercise saw airmen and seven F-16s from units in Alabama, California, Iowa, Washington, and Massachusetts fly alongside Ukraine’s MiG-29s and Su-27s with an overall goal of promoting and enhancing multinational cooperation in an effort to promote airspace security.
> 
> “Safe Skies 2011 was where the close relationship really started,” says Jersey. “They practiced flying together with very limited setups, but it was the foundation for what happened seven years later with exercise Clear Sky 2018.”
> 
> The 144th Fighter Wing made history on October 6, 2018, when the wing's F-15C Eagles landed in Ukraine for the first time, with Clear Sky 2018 becoming the first-ever joint multinational exercise hosted by Ukraine and sponsored by U.S. Forces in Europe. “We have taken massive steps to reach interoperability during this exercise,” commented Maj. Gen. Clay Garrison, the then California ANG commander and Clear Sky 2018 exercise director, during the exercise in 2018. “Clear Sky is leaps and bounds more comprehensive and extensive than our last air-centric exercise in 2011.”
> 
> “Ukraine asked us to come here and bring this exercise to them,” Garrison said at the time. “NATO is the gold standard for security cooperation across the world because we have rules to ensure a high level of safety and realism while training together. Ukraine knows the only way they can be interoperable with NATO is to train to that standard, which is exactly what we are working towards and accomplishing with this exercise.”
> 
> Jersey was the California ANG’s lead planner for the 2018 exercise, and it gave him a clear insight into the Ukrainian Air Force’s abilities. “The goal for* Clear Sky 2018* was to open up that aperture to large-force engagements,” explains Jersey, “plus we flew some Basic Fighter Maneuvers [BFM, aka dogfighting], but really it was about everything we do in western-style tactical aviation, and expose the Ukrainians to all of that.” *It also gave an opportunity for pilots from both air arms to fly in each other's fighters.*
> 
> “We did plenty of BFM with our F-15Cs against their MiG-29s and Su-27s and to be honest we could tell instantly that their pilots were very good. They are very tactically inventive, they know their airframes and also understand what they are lacking. I mean, they fly old jets. Our F-15s for example are old airframes, but they have been constantly upgraded with new avionics.”
> 
> In recent years, Ukraine has started to refurbish and upgrade some of its fighters, initially with the MiG-29 Fulcrum under a stepped process led by the now partially destroyed Lviv State Aircraft Repair Plant (LSARP). Other projects have addressed the Su-27, Su-25, and Su-24MR fleets.
> 
> 
> “Most of our training with them was geared towards flying integration with NATO,” Jersey continues. “We wanted them to start flying with the Polish Air Force and the other countries close to them such as Romania and Bulgaria, and to start integrating in flights across the border. A lot of the missions we flew back in 2018 were dedicated to integrating with them, such as our F-15s escorting their Su-24s and Su-25s into a target area and going up against their Flankers.”
> 
> “When I flew with them I thought their airmanship and the way they moved their aircraft – especially close-in dogfighting – was incredible. They knew their aircraft as well as anyone else knows their aircraft. I have fought Fulcrums and Flankers from other countries and they were up there with the best of the people that fly those airframes – hands down. But what we did in terms of Clear Sky was us trying to introduce them to mixing all the assets together. We 100% believed that we’d be there when they needed us – we never expected that we would be on the sidelines!”



I think there is a reason that the Ukrainians have asked explicitly for F-15s and F-16s and not, for example, F-18s.  I think, from their co-operation with the California Air National Guard, some of them may already have some flight hours in those aircraft.  They have certainly worked with them and have a grounding in their capabilities and tactics and how they might be integrated with their existing fleets.

It doesn't seem unreasonable that Ukraine could come up with a couple dozen flyers that could convert fairly quickly to the F-15s and -16s.


----------



## Fabius

6 months from now NATO will continue to insist it  would take too much time to train UKR pilots and ground crews. 😎


----------



## Quirky

Fabius said:


> 6 months from now NATO will continue to insist it  would take too much time to train UKR pilots and ground crews. 😎


6 weeks from now this could all be over if NATO flew their own planes.


----------



## Kirkhill

I'm going to assume that articles like this one in Foreign Affairs by a Rand Corporation analyst are not going to give the Ukrainians the warm fuzzies.









						The Perilous Long Game in Ukraine
					

Compromising with Putin may be America's best option.




					www.foreignaffairs.com
				





SAMUEL CHARAP is a Senior Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation and a co-author, with Timothy J. Colton, of _Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia._



> _These three long-term interests—achieving regional stability, discouraging Russia from turning into an international rogue, and precluding a new bipolarity—should not stop U.S. policymakers from imposing costs on Putin and his regime. But they should inform U.S. decision-making. A negotiated peace in the coming weeks that allows for some sanctions relief would be a necessary first step toward pursuing all three. Otherwise, continued regional conflicts, a Russian economic implosion, increased global disorder, and a de facto Moscow-Beijing alliance all become more likely long-term outcomes._



And that establishment perspective is separate from the Jacksonians who just don't want to get involved.

Add in the Europeans dependent on Vlad's gas, oil and coal and the Ukrainians need to create an advantageous pause in the near future so that they can negotiate from relative strength before Vlad or his replacement can get their act together.


----------



## suffolkowner

Compromise should have been the order of the day before the invasion but it takes two or maybe three to tango and we don't really know how close or far everyone was. Better signaling from the US/NATO would have helped too in my opinion but I don't think many though the Russians would be this bad or the Ukrainians this good. The stickler has to remain some kind of security guarantee for Ukraine and I can't see how to accomplish that without some kind of NATO involvement. At the start I proposed Ukraine walking away from Crimea and the Donbas but I don't think it was very popular.

At present the Ukrainians look to be making progress in Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv but the challenge of retaking Mariupol and Kherson and Zaporizhizia looms large


----------



## GR66

SupersonicMax said:


> Agreed but equipping the UAF with Western planes and weapons won’t be of any (or very little) help without proper training.  There are countries that have Russian weapons still in their inventory but I doubt they want to part with them given their proximity to Russia.


Top Aces now operates an F-16 Aggressor Squadron...perhaps Ukraine could send pilots and maintainers there to be trained by a non-governmental agency?


----------



## McG

KevinB said:


> If you have no AA-10’s or AA-12’s it really doesn’t matter that that point.  The only way the Ukrainian Air Force will be able to continue operating very soon is if they transition to NATO Aircraft and air weapons.
> 
> We looted the former WP NATO Members arsenals of missiles - as the rough/improvised field landing and take offs have rendered a lot of the Soviet era A2A missiles inoperative.  That cupboard is now empty - so the only option at this point is to start conversions.
> 
> Even more Mig and SU AC at this time won’t really help for the ordnance for them isn’t available in quantities needed.


Did none of the old Soviet aircraft in NATO nations get life extensions that integrated the ability to launch NATO weapons?

I had been assuming it was ITARS related to such upgrades that so far prevented the Polish delivery of fighters.


----------



## YZT580

suffolkowner said:


> Compromise should have been the order of the day before the invasion but it takes two or maybe three to tango and we don't really know how close or far everyone was. Better signaling from the US/NATO would have helped too in my opinion but I don't think many though the Russians would be this bad or the Ukrainians this good. The stickler has to remain some kind of security guarantee for Ukraine and I can't see how to accomplish that without some kind of NATO involvement. At the start I proposed Ukraine walking away from Crimea and the Donbas but I don't think it was very popular.
> 
> At present the Ukrainians look to be making progress in Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv but the challenge of retaking Mariupol and Kherson and Zaporizhizia looms large


Ukraine disarmed in 1994 because they had a guarantee.  With those guarantees in hand they compromised their security.  I doubt very much if they are willing to risk that again.


----------



## The Bread Guy

YZT580 said:


> Ukraine disarmed in 1994 because they had a guarantee.  With those guarantees in hand they compromised their security.  I doubt very much if they are willing to risk that again.


Or, at the _very_ least, with VERY different "guarantees" this time around.


----------



## KevinB

McG said:


> Did none of the old Soviet aircraft in NATO nations get life extensions that integrated the ability to launch NATO weapons?
> 
> I had been assuming it was ITARS related to such upgrades that so far prevented the Polish delivery of fighters.


Some, but not as many as planned ever actually got done. 
  ITAR is kind of a joke wrt Ukraine, as we’ve shipped a lot of US only and 5I only gear there since kickoff.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> Some, but not as many as planned ever actually got done.
> ITAR is kind of a joke wrt Ukraine, as we’ve shipped a lot of US only and 5I only gear there since kickoff.



One thing that, in my view, constantly gets overlooked, is just how technically competent Ukrainian society is.

For example.









						Vladimir Putin ‘running out’ of missiles – because parts are made in Ukraine
					

A substantial portion of fighter jet engines and tank components are made in Ukrainian factories, which no longer supply Russian forces




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				




Bodging things together seems to be something of a Ukrainian birthright.  One that the Russians relied on.



> Vladimir Putin risks running out of viable tanks, missiles and fighter jets because the components they use are made in Ukraine, The Telegraph understands.
> 
> The engines for all Russian helicopters, ships and cruise missiles and a substantial portion of fighter jet engines and ground-to-air missile and tank components are made in Ukrainian factories, which no longer supply Mr Putin’s forces.
> 
> Russian troops are understood to be running low on arms after five weeks of conflict and the heavy shelling of many Ukrainian cities.


----------



## McG

KevinB said:


> Some, but not as many as planned ever actually got done.


Okay, that is a start. Get these into Ukraine to increase combat capacity, slow consumption of Soviet era munitions, and build Ukrainian experience with NATO air launched weapons. Also open a shop and start converting any remaining Soviet era fighters for NATO weapons compatibility. They can trickle in as they are ready, and Ukraine will still need them when the war freezes again.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510300611325177858

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510298120118325257


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510300611325177858
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510298120118325257


The disadvantage of the nation in arms concept.  Everyone is a target.


----------



## Blackadder1916

Kirkhill said:


> The disadvantage of the nation in arms concept.  Everyone is a target potential murder victim.



FTFY


----------



## Remius

Kirkhill said:


> The disadvantage of the nation in arms concept.  Everyone is a target.


Something I was thinking about when they were making Molotov cocktails and handing out rifles to citizens a few weeks ago.


----------



## Kirkhill

Francs-tireurs - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				






> Before the two world wars, the term _franc-tireur_ was sometimes used for an armed fighter who, if captured, was not necessarily entitled to prisoner of war status. An issue of disagreement at the 1899 Hague Conference, the controversy generated the Martens Clause. The Martens Clause was introduced as a compromise between the Great Powers, who considered _francs-tireurs_ to be unlawful combatants subject to execution on capture, and smaller states, who maintained that they should be considered lawful combatants.[9][10]
> 
> After World War II, during the Hostages Trial,[11] the seventh of the Nuremberg Trials, the tribunal found that, on the question of partisans, according to the then-current laws of war, the partisan fighters in southeast Europe could not be considered lawful belligerents under Article 1 of the Hague Convention.[12] In relation to Wilhelm List, the tribunal stated:
> 
> We are obliged to hold that such guerrillas were francs tireurs who, upon capture, could be subjected to the death penalty. Consequently, no criminal responsibility attaches to the defendant List because of the execution of captured partisans...[12]





> The post-war Geneva Convention established new protocols; according to Article 4 of the Third Geneva Convention of 1949, _francs-tireurs_ are entitled to prisoner-of-war status provided that they are commanded by a person responsible for his subordinates, have a fixed distinctive sign recognizable at a distance, carry arms openly, and conduct their operations in accordance with the laws and customs of war.[13]



The difference between uniformed Territorials and locals in civvies with arm bands.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510316184469749764


----------



## The Bread Guy

Even if it's a little true, attempted occupiers beware (via UKR mil int) ...




__





						The Occupiers Are Poisoned by Local Residents and Alcohol
					






					gur.gov.ua


----------



## brihard

Kirkhill said:


> Francs-tireurs - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The difference between uniformed Territorials and locals in civvies with arm bands.


None of the international law on this allows for the slaughter of civilians, or combatants (regardless of lawful status) who are _hors de combat._

International law allows for a civilian population to rise up spontaneously in defense of their country, even if not part of an organized or regularly constituted force. As long as they bear arms openly and observe the laws and customs of war, they’re entitled to PW status of captured.

Spies or saboteurs, if captured (for example, enemy soldiers caught wearing your own army’s uniform) may be tried and executed, but there’s no indication that’s at all what is alleged to have happened here, if this is true.


----------



## Kirkhill

brihard said:


> Yeah, you’re outside of your arcs here. None of the international law on this allows for the slaughter of civilians, or combatants (regardless of lawful status) who are _hors de combat._
> 
> International law allows for a civilian population to rise up spontaneously in defense of their country, even if not part of an organized or regularly constituted force. As long as they bear arms openly and observe the laws and customs of war, they’re entitled to PW status of captured.
> 
> Spies or saboteurs, if captured (for example, enemy soldiers caught wearing your own army’s uniform) may be tried and executed, but there’s no indication that’s at all what is alleged to have happened here, if this is true.




Thank you.  Always learning.


----------



## brihard

Kirkhill said:


> Thank you.  Always learning.


Sorry, my first line wasn’t necessary, and I was in the process of removing it when you replied.


----------



## armrdsoul77

Ukrainian parliament signs law offering $1 million rewards to defecting Russian soldiers who hand over a fighter jet or a warship


----------



## Kirkhill

brihard said:


> Sorry, my first line wasn’t necessary, and I was in the process of removing it when you replied.


Not a worry.  It was the right call.  I was out of my lane.


----------



## The Bread Guy

BBC's done a good job pulling together all sorts of OS information & imagery to put together a 10-ish minute mini-doc on one of the RUS airborne commanders killed in UKR -  a good lesson on what OS info can reveal, even from a relatively closed society.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510348237953241091


----------



## WLSC

brihard said:


> None of the international law on this allows for the slaughter of civilians, or combatants (regardless of lawful status) who are _hors de combat._
> 
> International law allows for a civilian population to rise up spontaneously in defense of their country, even if not part of an organized or regularly constituted force. As long as they bear arms openly and observe the laws and customs of war, they’re entitled to PW status of captured.
> 
> Spies or saboteurs, if captured (for example, enemy soldiers caught wearing your own army’s uniform) may be tried and executed, but there’s no indication that’s at all what is alleged to have happened here, if this is true.


What worries me is that even if the civilians who are defending legally their country is just an other reason for behind shot/execute deliberately by the Russians.


----------



## KevinB

FusMR said:


> What worries me is that even if the civilians who are defending legally their country is just an other reason for behind shot/execute deliberately by the Russians.


Given we have seen Russian troops gleefully shoot children who can barely walk, visibly marked members of the press and ICRC.       

Russian BN Commanders brag to other commanders about how many women and children their troops have killed, and raped, I don’t think some RF have needed to try to find a reason.  

I don’t want to paint all Russians with the same brush, as there have been other commanders and unit that have threatened and used weapons against their own forces to stop some war crimes they have witnessed.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510283018912821253


----------



## KevinB

I think the 40 Easting will be a good demarcation line for Ukraine


----------



## GR66

KevinB said:


> I think the 40 Easting will be a good demarcation line for Ukraine


With the Northern border being on the White Sea???


----------



## brihard

More and more, and worse and worse photos and videos keep coming out of Bucha. It’s looking increasingly like there was deliberate and wide scale murder of civilians by the Russian army.

The international narrative and response to Russia’s war of aggression needs to take these developments into account. While this may have been Putin’s war to begin with, Russia, as a country, is showing itself to be OK with what’s happening in Ukraine, and Russia’s army at all levels appears to be perpetrating or complicit in atrocity.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Great post Brihard. It's convenient to make this "Putin's fault" and try to give his subordinates an out for withdrawing support of him but it's also lazy and wrong. Russians are committing atrocities and they shouldn't be let off the hook. 

When this is over I hope the international community doesn't rush to forgive and forget.


----------



## Kat Stevens

Russians have been okay with slaughtering local populations since they first took their ships and particular version of Christianity up the Volga. Human life is not valued there as it is in The West (Tm). The dark ages were called that for a reason, and thankfully we crawled out of that slime (mostly) changed for the better. They did not. They were still running a feudal system till that little bit of a punchup in 1917.


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> One thing that, in my view, constantly gets overlooked, is just how technically competent Ukrainian society is.
> 
> For example.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Vladimir Putin ‘running out’ of missiles – because parts are made in Ukraine
> 
> 
> A substantial portion of fighter jet engines and tank components are made in Ukrainian factories, which no longer supply Russian forces
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.telegraph.co.uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Bodging things together seems to be something of a Ukrainian birthright.  One that the Russians relied on.



Turkey and Ukraine co-operating on UCAV Bayraktars - Ukrainian engine.









						Bayraktar powered by Ukrainian engine to be more efficient than fifth-generation fighters
					

Thanks to unmanned control, the new Kızılelma UAV by Baykar Makina will be able to perform more difficult tasks in combat due to no risk of losing a pilot. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				












						Baykar Bayraktar Kızılelma - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Haggis

brihard said:


> None of the international law on this allows for the slaughter of civilians, or combatants (regardless of lawful status) who are _hors de combat._


Russia is still a signatory to the Geneva Conventions, but has backed away from Additional Protocol 1.


brihard said:


> International law allows for a civilian population to rise up spontaneously in defense of their country, even if not part of an organized or regularly constituted force. As long as they bear arms openly and observe the laws and customs of war, they’re entitled to PW status of captured.


Unless you play fast and loose with applying the definition of "combatant" and "military objective", particularly when targeting apartment complexes, hospitals, aid convoys, humanitarian evacuation routes and burying your victims in mass graves.  It's the FRY all over again.


----------



## TheProfessional

Skysix said:


> Not sure if this qualifies as Russian or Ukrainian propoganda. Either way, sadly funny. The VDV has endured tremendous losses.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian Military Redubs Russian VDV Recruitment Song
> 
> 
> The Ukrainian Military continues to clown on the Russian Army. This time they've dubbed over a famous Russian Airborne recruiting advertisement to make it a more accurate to the present situation.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> funker530.com


🎶VDV, how many casualties?
Javelins cooking off our BMDs
under heavy fire in the airport
what the hell happened to air support??🎶

This is ruthless. Hahaha


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510372225391730688


----------



## Kirkhill

Some interesting points on industrial replenishment of stocks









						Business booms as Western defence industry stops Russia in its tracks
					

Missiles like the NLAW and Javelin are helping Ukraine give Putin a bloody nose




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				






> In the short term, according to insiders, these stockpiles will need to be replenished, which is likely to offer a boom in orders for the makers of these weapons.
> 
> “Global defence budgets, including those in Europe and the US, will rise, fuelling longer-term revenue growth for the sector,” analysts at Moody’s said in a recent note to clients.
> 
> “We expect other nations to increase their budgets in response to the crisis, to modernise equipment and to improve operational readiness of existing equipment.”



But 



> Insiders at some of the UK’s armourers say it takes about 10 years to commission, design and deliver a new missile programme, and restarting an old one can take two years, depending on the complexity of the weaponry.



And another but 



> In the longer term, where spending is allocated - and which companies will benefit in the bid to keep the Ukrainian army supplied - is harder to predict, says Peter McNally of research firm Third Bridge.
> 
> “There's definitely going to be a capital reallocation that is going to happen, but it's still early days to figure out exactly where the spending is going to be,” he explains, because of slow budgets and the duration of defence industry programmes.
> 
> “The Russian army hasn't exactly wowed the world with its capabilities. There's going to have to be an assessment of that before spending just gets thrown about,” McNally adds.



Hot takes aside - have the rules of the game changed?


----------



## brihard

Haggis said:


> Russia is still a signatory to the Geneva Conventions, but has backed away from Additional Protocol 1.



They have. International Humanitarian Law has both a statutory (actual treaties and agreements) aspect, and a conventional aspect, the latter being practices and actions that have come to simply be accepted by the community of nations as being beyond the pale, and as constituting crimes against humanity of war crimes.

There is no one single cohesive set of international law on all this; there’s a lot of patchwork and overlap of treaties and conventions. Jurisdictional issues abound: who actually can (or chooses to) exercise jurisdiction and prosecute a particular crime.

You see a ton of of variance in acceptance of developments in the realm of ‘what kind of weapons can be used’; cluster munitions, landmines..: Autonomous robotic weapons are starting to come into the radar there. Major military powers tends to not sign on to the conventions that limit how they can conduct war. The additional protocols to the Geneva Conventions have broad but far from universal support. Similarly, the Rome Convention establishing the ICC has buy in from many countries, but not the most powerful ones. Which sucks, because the Rome Statue does a really great job of collecting and codifying in modern terms the various war crimes and crimes against humanity. Canada’s own Crimes Against Humanity and War Crimes Act relies heavily on it to define ‘the things you can’t do’, for instance.

With all that said, it’s very clear that the slaughter of civilians is a hard no. They can try to dance around the edge all they want and claim there were partisan hits on their troops, etc, but that will not clean their hands of this. The challenge will be accountability.

I would guess we’ll see an international tribunal set up along the lines of the ones for Yugoslavia and Rwanda, and perhaps the ICC may handle a few cases pertaining to those at the very top depending on how jurisdiction shakes out.


----------



## WLSC

KevinB said:


> Given we have seen Russian troops gleefully shoot children who can barely walk, visibly marked members of the press and ICRC.
> 
> Russian BN Commanders brag to other commanders about how many women and children their troops have killed, and raped, I don’t think some RF have needed to try to find a reason.
> 
> I don’t want to paint all Russians with the same brush, as there have been other commanders and unit that have threatened and used weapons against their own forces to stop some war crimes they have witnessed.


We generalise a lot on RF troop in that matter.  Good for them if units try to stop those criminal acts.  I wonder what is the ration of good vs éveil troop.?  That would be an interesting find.


----------



## MilEME09

brihard said:


> They have. International Humanitarian Law has both a statutory (actual treaties and agreements) aspect, and a conventional aspect, the latter being practices and actions that have come to simply be accepted by the community of nations as being beyond the pale, and as constituting crimes against humanity of war crimes.
> 
> There is no one single cohesive set of international law on all this; there’s a lot of patchwork and overlap of treaties and conventions. Jurisdictional issues abound: who actually can (or chooses to) exercise jurisdiction and prosecute a particular crime.
> 
> You see a ton of of variance in acceptance of developments in the realm of ‘what kind of weapons can be used’; cluster munitions, landmines..: Autonomous robotic weapons are starting to come into the radar there. Major military powers tends to not sign on to the conventions that limit how they can conduct war. The additional protocols to the Geneva Conventions have broad but far from universal support. Similarly, the Rome Convention establishing the ICC has buy in from many countries, but not the most powerful ones. Which sucks, because the Rome Statue does a really great job of collecting and codifying in modern terms the various war crimes and crimes against humanity. Canada’s own Crimes Against Humanity and War Crimes Act relies heavily on it to define ‘the things you can’t do’, for instance.
> 
> With all that said, it’s very clear that the slaughter of civilians is a hard no. They can try to dance around the edge all they want and claim there were partisan hits on their troops, etc, but that will not clean their hands of this. The challenge will be accountability.
> 
> I would guess we’ll see an international tribunal set up along the lines of the ones for Yugoslavia and Rwanda, and perhaps the ICC may handle a few cases pertaining to those at the very top depending on how jurisdiction shakes out.


Problem I see is Russia has said it wont recognize the ICC jurisdiction. So if anyone is tried in absentia, unless they leave russia we likely can't get them.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Haggis said:


> It's the FRY all over again.


... with 2 main players instead of 3.


----------



## OldSolduer

The Bread Guy said:


> ... with 2 main players instead of 3.


And there was all kinds of atrocities by all three.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Problem I see is Russia has said it wont recognize the ICC jurisdiction. So if anyone is tried in absentia, unless they leave russia we likely can't get them.


We snatch people all the time from less cooperative countries.  The issue is more identification of perpetrators to a standard to allow for criminal convictions of a legitimate court. 

Or we could just whack them.  I kind of prefer #2 as targeted killings are one of my favorite actions.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

The Bread Guy said:


> ... with 2 main players instead of 3.



I said about a month ago that this was Yugoslavia 2.0.  

There are really multiple players on either side.  You've got interesting mixes of regular soldiers, irregular fighters, militias and then hybrid forces.

I suspect many of the war crimes are committed by the latter groups.


----------



## McG

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510316184469749764


If true, this may mean there is an opportune window for the deployment of a western humanitarian protection force.

A NATO humanitarian force could secure the oblasts of Volyn, Rivne, Lviv, Ternopil, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Chernivtsi, Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Zhytomyr, Cherkassy and Kirovohard. If the force stays west of the Dnieper and away from areas physically contested by Russia, there should be no risk of coming to blows with Russian ground forces. Warn Russia not to attack the humanitarian shielding force, and as long as Russia does not attack then harm against civilians is minimized and the war does not escalate.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

McG said:


> If true, this may mean there is an opportune window for the deployment of a western humanitarian protection force.
> 
> A NATO humanitarian force could secure the oblasts of Volyn, Rivne, Lviv, Ternopil, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Chernivtsi, Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Zhytomyr, Cherkassy and Kirovohard. If the force stays west of the Dnieper and away from areas physically contested by Russia, there should be no risk of coming to blows with Russian ground forces. Warn Russia not to attack the humanitarian shielding force, and as long as Russia does not attack then harm against civilians is minimized and the war does not escalate.



The problem with this is we are giving the Ukrainians weapons.  In order for this to be even considered a viable COA, that would need to stop.

The minute NATO enters the territorial boundaries of Ukraine, it is now an active participant, even more so considering Russia has already conducted extensive offensive actions West of the Dniepr.The time this could have been viable was before the war had started.  

We need to be pragmatic about this.  It's truly heartbreaking seeing civilians get killed but that's an unfortunate consequence of war.


----------



## McG

The Bread Guy said:


> Even if it's a little true, attempted occupiers beware (via UKR mil int) ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Occupiers Are Poisoned by Local Residents and Alcohol
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> gur.gov.ua


Poisoning Russians soldiers would be a crime despite the heinous things thier armies have done in Ukraine. Hopefully an official Ukraine website would do more against normalizing this tactic. Instead, shoot them or blow them up.  

That being said …

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510257997209124872If Russia is using riot gas as part of their invasion arsenal then they are in violation of the conventions that prohibit chemical weapons.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

McG said:


> Poisoning Russians soldiers would be a crime despite the heinous things thier armies have done in Ukraine. Hopefully an official Ukraine website would do more against normalizing this tactic. Instead, shoot them or blow them up.
> 
> That being said …
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510257997209124872If Russia is using riot gas as part of their invasion arsenal then they are in violation of the conventions that prohibit chemical weapons.



I think we both know by now that the Geneva Convention is a suggestion in this war.  It's a total war for both Russia and Ukraine.


----------



## KevinB

McG said:


> Poisoning Russians soldiers would be a crime despite the heinous things thier armies have done in Ukraine. Hopefully an official Ukraine website would do more against normalizing this tactic. Instead, shoot them or blow them up.
> 
> That being said …
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510257997209124872If Russia is using riot gas as part of their invasion arsenal then they are in violation of the conventions that prohibit chemical weapons.


CN/CS Gas is legal for use against non combatants for less lethal usage. You can’t use it against combatants.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

KevinB said:


> CN/CS Gas is legal for use against non combatants for less lethal usage. You can’t use it against combatants.



We all know International Law is Kabuki Theatre.  In all honesty, what Countries will or will not do is for domestic audience consumption.  

Prime example is the Ban against AP Mines.   Plenty of Countries use AP Mines because it is good Military sense to do so.  Some Countries like Canada choose not to for their own reasons, usually driven by domestic political imperatives.


----------



## McG

Humphrey Bogart said:


> The problem with this is we are giving the Ukrainians weapons. In order for this to be even considered a viable COA, that would need to stop.
> 
> The minute NATO enters the territorial boundaries of Ukraine, it is now an active participant


Maybe. Russia could probably argue that NATO forces would have become legitimate military targets. But attacking the humanitarian force would carry the consequences of an attack on NATO, and the sanctuary that Russia currently enjoys in Belarus & within its own borders would be gone. Communicating/messaging the extent of the protected region and the consequences of violating the protected zone would be a critical component of the operation.


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> We all know International Law is Kabuki Theatre.  In all honesty, what Countries will or will not do is for domestic audience consumption.
> 
> Prime example is the Ban against AP Mines.   Plenty of Countries use AP Mines because it is good Military sense to do so.  Some Countries like Canada choose not to for their own reasons, usually driven by domestic political imperatives.



If one of our allies were to place an anti-personnel minefield in front of a Canadian position would the Canadian force relocate out from behind it?


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

McG said:


> Maybe. Russia could probably argue that NATO forces are would have become legitimate military targets. But attacking the humanitarian force would carry the consequences of an attack on NATO, and the sanctuary that Russia currently enjoys in Belarus & within its own borders would be gone. Communicating/messaging the extent of the protected region and the consequences of violating the protected zone would be a critical component of the operation.



Then we come back to that point about Nuclear Escalation.  

We don't know what Russia's capabilities are or aren't in that regard and it's not worth the risk IMO.

What we are doing now is working, the Ukrainians have dealt a serious political and military defeat in the first phase of this conflict.

Why change strategy now?  What do we gain from a change?  I think these are very important questions we need to ask ourselves.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Kirkhill said:


> If one of our allies were to place an anti-personnel minefield in front of a Canadian position would the Canadian force relocate out from behind it?



I hope you realize that's not really practical.


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I hope you realize that's not really practical.



I am anticipating Foreign Affairs officials convening.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Kirkhill said:


> I am anticipating Foreign Affairs officials convening.



I wouldn't count on it.  They would hope we would just do it without authorization so they had someone to blame when things went sideways.

That's the GAC MO when it comes to dealing with the CAF LOL


----------



## McG

Russia does not want that nuclear war either. Their appetite of their redefined objectives is all east of the Dniepr, so they make no gains from pulling NATO into offensive operations but they loose a lot.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

McG said:


> Russia does not want that nuclear war either. Their appetite of their redefined objectives is all east of the Dniepr, so they make no gains from pulling NATO into offensive operations but they loose a lot.



We've made a lot of assumptions so far about Russia and what Russia wants. Many/Most of them have been incorrect.  Both sides should probably avoid making so many assumptions when dealing with something as serious as Nuclear Warfare.


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Russia does not want......no one knows what Putin wants.


----------



## Kat Stevens

McG said:


> Poisoning Russians soldiers would be a crime despite the heinous things thier armies have done in Ukraine. Hopefully an official Ukraine website would do more against normalizing this tactic. Instead, shoot them or blow them up.
> 
> That being said …
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510257997209124872If Russia is using riot gas as part of their invasion arsenal then they are in violation of the conventions that prohibit chemical weapons.


Those assholes are killing babies and pregnant women. I'd have no problem serving them an ethylene glycol shooter with a ground glass and battery acid chaser. Fuck those guys.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

McG said:


> Russia does not want that nuclear war either. Their appetite of their redefined objectives is all east of the Dniepr, so they make no gains from pulling NATO into offensive operations but they loose a lot.



Here is a proposition for you.

We have a tendency, being a Maritime Nation that is otherwise completely uninterested in Maritime Affairs, to overlook other approaches, like a Maritime Approach.

Given the significant impact this war is going to have on Global Grain Supply:









						Ukraine's grain exports held up as railways struggle to cope, analyst says
					

Ukraine's railways are struggling with a backlog of grain wagons on the country's western border as traders look for alternative export routes after Russia's invasion blocked off the main Black Sea ports, analyst APK-Inform said on Saturday.




					www.reuters.com
				




This is being almost entirely caused by the Russian Naval Blockade of Odessa which is creating a significant backlog amongst other things.  

I would propose a Naval Force that would guarantee protection of Commercial Shipping in the Black Sea.

Of note, Russia is a signatory of UNCLOS.  So why not use UNCLOS against them?  😉

There is already precedence for this elsewhere i.e. The Strait of Hormuz and protecting Freedom of Navigation should be something that is legally possible and can be used against Russia.


----------



## WLSC

Kirkhill said:


> If one of our allies were to place an anti-personnel minefield in front of a Canadian position would the Canadian force relocate out from behind it?


In my experience, no but we would have noting to do with them, maintenance of the field etc.


----------



## Remius

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> Russia does not want......no one knows what Putin wants.


There is enough out there to at least get a pattern of what he wants in more or less terms.  But whatever he wants isn’t good for the west one way or another.


----------



## McG

Russia is failing in the war that it thought it could easily win. The west helped them feel comfortable about starting the war by being both ambiguous & non-comitial on the consequences. The idea to walk softly and carry a big stick falls short when you hide the stick and deny it’s existence.

So, while Putin is failing against his expected easy win, we can push Russia in a positive direction by putting clear lines on the ground and being unambiguous where Russia’s decision to cross will cause the war that Russia knows it cannot win.

I am good with the idea of a humanitarian shipping corridor, though I think securing this has greater potential to see NATO & Russian forces trading shots with each other. I also understand Turkey is not allowing anybody to send warships into the Black Sea.

I would also like to see more answers for global food security. There has been a lot of discussion of getting more Canadian oil to global markets, but we also need more Canadian grains …. And that might mean pipelines for oil so there is more rail capacity for grain. Maybe some tobacco & marijuana farms can convert to growing food.


----------



## Kirkhill

McG said:


> Russia is failing in the war that it thought it could easily win. The west helped them feel comfortable about starting the war by being both ambiguous & non-comitial on the consequences. The idea to walk softly and carry a big stick falls short when you hide the stick and deny it’s existence.
> 
> So, while Putin is failing against his expected easy win, we can push Russia in a positive direction by putting clear lines on the ground and being unambiguous where Russia’s decision to cross will cause the war that Russia knows it cannot win.
> 
> I am good with the idea of a humanitarian shipping corridor, though I think securing this has greater potential to see NATO & Russian forces trading shots with each other. I also understand Turkey is not allowing anybody to send warships into the Black Sea.
> 
> I would also like to see more answers for global food security. There has been a lot of discussion of getting more Canadian oil to global markets, but we also need more Canadian grains …. And that might mean pipelines for oil so there is more rail capacity for grain. Maybe some tobacco & marijuana farms can convert to growing food.



We might want to consider swapping canola and peas for wheat and barley again.  A lot of the canola thrust was predicated on burning it as biodiesel in the future.  Fuel was more valuable than food.


----------



## YZT580

McG said:


> Russia is failing in the war that it thought it could easily win. The west helped them feel comfortable about starting the war by being both ambiguous & non-comitial on the consequences. The idea to walk softly and carry a big stick falls short when you hide the stick and deny it’s existence.
> 
> So, while Putin is failing against his expected easy win, we can push Russia in a positive direction by putting clear lines on the ground and being unambiguous where Russia’s decision to cross will cause the war that Russia knows it cannot win.
> 
> I am good with the idea of a humanitarian shipping corridor, though I think securing this has greater potential to see NATO & Russian forces trading shots with each other. I also understand Turkey is not allowing anybody to send warships into the Black Sea.
> 
> I would also like to see more answers for global food security. There has been a lot of discussion of getting more Canadian oil to global markets, but we also need more Canadian grains …. And that might mean pipelines for oil so there is more rail capacity for grain. Maybe some tobacco & marijuana farms can convert to growing food.


That requires OW to backtrack and that won't happen as long as the libs. are in control with the NDP.  I doubt very much if we ever see another pipeline laid in Canada or at least not until people begin to realize the futility of trying to stop climate change by regulating a minor green house gas.  It is ironic that we have the resources to eliminate Europe's dependence upon Russia for food and fuel and yet are unable to help in the slightest


----------



## MilEME09

YZT580 said:


> That requires OW to backtrack and that won't happen as long as the libs. are in control with the NDP.  I doubt very much if we ever see another pipeline laid in Canada or at least not until people begin to realize the futility of trying to stop climate change by regulating a minor green house gas.  It is ironic that we have the resources to eliminate Europe's dependence upon Russia for food and fuel and yet are unable to help in the slightest


Unless we get off our high horse which in my opinion is fake, we won't ever be helpful. We need to be the strategic oil and gas reserve of the western world but politics and foreign interference won't allow our resources to be fully exploited.

Edit: in other news









						Notorious Sniper Trolls Russians As He Thanks Them For Their Rations
					

He’s managed to get hold of a Russian Army ration pack, giving the provisions a tongue-in-cheek review on Facebook




					www.unilad.co.uk


----------



## Zipperhead99

Well not technically Ukrainian and a rather lengthy article, it is an interesting read on the situation in Moldova.









						Neutrality With No Guarantees: The Evolution of Moldova’s Defense and Security Policies - Jamestown
					

Executive Summary Moldova has been discounting and underfunding its defense and security sectors for the past three decades, despite having over 10 percent of its territory under Russian control. Today, the foreign armed forces stationed on Moldovan territory against Chisinau’s will effectively...




					jamestown.org


----------



## ModlrMike

McG said:


> I would also like to see more answers for global food security. There has been a lot of discussion of getting more Canadian oil to global markets, but we also need more Canadian grains …. And that might mean pipelines for oil so there is more rail capacity for grain. Maybe some tobacco & marijuana farms can convert to growing food.


You would have to hit that one over the Green Monster in Ottawa for that to happen. Oil and agriculture are our two most carbon dense industries. Fat chance the feds look the other way.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> and a conventional aspect, the latter being practices and actions that have come to simply be accepted by the community of nations



Nit: "customary", not "conventional" (statutory and customary law).

LoaC is in almost everyone's lane (certainly every military person's "lane"); all the important stuff is written in plain language and meant to be understood by people who are not lawyers.  Even journalists have been known to get it right.

Looking at the trend over time, increasingly everyone who observes the rules is entitled to the protections of the rules.  Looking for reasons that someone who takes part in a fight is not entitled to protections and acting on that line of reasoning could blow back hard.  (Don't do it.)

Separately, on pondering Putin's reason(s) for war and quest for power, a lot of people are looking at the possibility of a forthcoming food (wheat) and fertilizer crisis without noting that if Russia takes Ukraine, it lifts itself from owning just under a quarter of total world wheat export to about one third.  That's a hefty foreign policy lever, and certainly more useful than pipelines to Europe.


----------



## Prairie canuck

NATO and the EU sits and watches as Russia slaughters while Ukraine begs for help. 
The legacy of this war will be: 
Russians are evil, 
Ukranians are heroes, 
and NATO are cowards.

Just my opinion but I suspect I'm not alone.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Prairie canuck said:


> NATO and the EU sits and watches as Russia slaughters while Ukraine begs for help.
> The legacy of this war will be:
> Russians are evil,
> Ukranians are heroes,
> and NATO are cowards.
> 
> Just my opinion but I suspect I'm not alone.



NATO is the one feeding the Ukrainian war machine.  It's also the one who brought their military forward in professionalism and ability. 

I feel for Ukraine.  I really do.  But I can't agree to starting a nuclear war of this.  Which is what would happen if we engaged the Russians.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I said about a month ago that this was Yugoslavia 2.0.
> 
> There are really multiple players on either side.  You've got interesting mixes of regular soldiers, irregular fighters, militias and then hybrid forces.
> 
> I suspect many of the war crimes are committed by the latter groups.


Agreed - there's a spectrum of players each fighting for their own thing, and under a range of levels of control of Government Central.


----------



## KevinB

Halifax Tar said:


> NATO is the one feeding the Ukrainian war machine.  It's also the one who brought their military forward in professionalism and ability.
> 
> I feel for Ukraine.  I really do.  But I can't agree to starting a nuclear war of this.  Which is what would happen if we engaged the Russians.



Turkey shot down a Russian Fighter in Syria - nothing happened. 
    NATO needs to stop wringing our hands about what Russian might do, and make Russia start wringing their hands about what we might do.


----------



## MilEME09

Halifax Tar said:


> NATO is the one feeding the Ukrainian war machine.  It's also the one who brought their military forward in professionalism and ability.
> 
> I feel for Ukraine.  I really do.  But I can't agree to starting a nuclear war of this.  Which is what would happen if we engaged the Russians.


Frankly we only fear it would cause nuclear war, it's not 100% guaranteed. That fear is what stops us from doing anything further.


----------



## Halifax Tar

KevinB said:


> Turkey shot down a Russian Fighter in Syria - nothing happened.
> NATO needs to stop wringing our hands about what Russian might do, and make Russia start wringing their hands about what we might do.





MilEME09 said:


> Frankly we only fear it would cause nuclear war, it's not 100% guaranteed. That fear is what stops us from doing anything further.



So you're willing to gamble the western world, if not the planet, for the Ukraine ? 

I'm not.

Things seem to be going well right now.  Let the Ukraine handle it with our material help.  What is your rush to get into a shooting war with Russia ?


----------



## The Bread Guy

A short fable from the front, courtesy of the UKR military info-machine


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510484072744820740


----------



## Haggis

KevinB said:


> Turkey shot down a Russian Fighter in Syria - nothing happened.
> NATO needs to stop wringing our hands about what Russian might do, and make Russia start wringing their hands about what we might do.


NATO (the military alliance) is powerless without the backing of the populations that fund and supply it.  NATO doesn't fear a tactical nuke strike on a NATO formation in/near Ukraine because that's not what the Russians are threatening to do.  The _population_ of NATO fears a strategic strike on Warsaw, Brussels, Munich, Rome or beyond which is what at least one Russian lawmaker has already suggested should have been done by now to keep the military side of NATO in check.


----------



## MilEME09

Halifax Tar said:


> So you're willing to gamble the western world, if not the planet, for the Ukraine ?
> 
> I'm not.
> 
> Things seem to be going well right now.  Let the Ukraine handle it with our material help.  What is your rush to get into a shooting war with Russia ?


My rush?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510608649193938949
My rush is we could be doing a lot more to deal with a Russia who is killing every fighting age male, raping women and children. This is a war for survival of Ukraine, and we are afraid to directly do anything against Russia because it has a big red nuclear button that actually takes 3 people to push.

We could be doing a lot more to hurt Russia, if you look, the majority of sanctions have only hit Russian imports, not exports, we the west claim to be on the moral high ground while still buying Russian oil, gas, coal, and other goods. This needs to stop, Russia needs to be brought to its knees, and fast.


----------



## Remius

MilEME09 said:


> My rush?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510608649193938949
> My rush is we could be doing a lot more to deal with a Russia who is killing every fighting age male, raping women and children. This is a war for survival of Ukraine, and we are afraid to directly do anything against Russia because it has a big red nuclear button that actually takes 3 people to push.
> 
> We could be doing a lot more to hurt Russia, if you look, the majority of sanctions have only hit Russian imports, not exports, we the west claim to be on the moral high ground while still buying Russian oil, gas, coal, and other goods. This needs to stop, Russia needs to be brought to its knees, and fast.


Europe called Putin on his gas for rubles bluff.  Gas is still flowing. 

It may be time to to call other bluffs.  

Setting up protected humanitarian corridors or limited no fly zones doesn’t seem like a huge escalation on NATO’s part when you see the atrocities being committed by Russia.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

My unfortunate estimation is that NATO is treating Ukraine similarly to how the West viewed the Japanese incursion into China in 1936.

 its a travesty, this must stop, sanctions, handwringing from everyone...

But it's not "our problem" yet. Until it becomes our problem, millions of innocent civilians will be displaced, raped, abused, and summarily killed because "we don't want to start a war..."


----------



## brihard

Brad Sallows said:


> Nit: "customary", not "conventional" (statutory and customary law).
> 
> LoaC is in almost everyone's lane (certainly every military person's "lane"); all the important stuff is written in plain language and meant to be understood by people who are not lawyers.  Even journalists have been known to get it right.
> 
> Looking at the trend over time, increasingly everyone who observes the rules is entitled to the protections of the rules.  Looking for reasons that someone who takes part in a fight is not entitled to protections and acting on that line of reasoning could blow back hard.  (Don't do it.)



And a good nit to pick. I’m embarrassed at the ‘customary’ vs ‘conventional’ brain fart, it even felt weird writing it and I couldn’t figure out why. Anyway, I appreciate the correction for precision.

My comment about ‘lane’ meant more in terms of saying what the law was and wasn’t; however it was an inappropriate way for me to say it, hence the edit and apology. You’re right that the subject should concern all of us.  I was just concerned to see one (outdated) aspect of IHL being referenced that could appear, if interpreted inaccurately, to justify executions.

You last para that I quote sums up what I was getting at perfectly, thank you. Anyone defending their country, so long as they themselves observed the laws and customs of war, should be protected and treated humanely if they fall into the hands of another belligerent party.

I fear that after the discoveries north of Kyiv, Ukrainian leadership will have their work cut out for them to protect any captured Russians…


----------



## Prairie canuck

Haggis said:


> NATO (the military alliance) is powerless without the backing of the populations that fund and supply it.  NATO doesn't fear a tactical nuke strike on a NATO formation in/near Ukraine because that's not what the Russians are threatening to do.  The _population_ of NATO fears a strategic strike on Warsaw, Brussels, Munich, Rome or beyond which is what at least one Russian lawmaker has already suggested should have been done by now to keep the military side of NATO in check.


Russia also knows that a nuclear (or biological or chemical) attack will result in a retaliatory strike on Russian soil and so on and so on. Any aspirations for a greater Russia reborn ends and disappears. Call the bluff.


----------



## Kirkhill

Prairie canuck said:


> Russia also knows that a nuclear (or biological or chemical) attack will result in a retaliatory strike on Russian soil and so on and so on. Any aspirations for a greater Russia reborn ends and disappears. Call the bluff.



Russia also has to gamble with three players capable of nuclear response to their nuclear response - the US, the UK and France.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510640059074109447


----------



## Halifax Tar

MilEME09 said:


> My rush?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510608649193938949
> My rush is we could be doing a lot more to deal with a Russia who is killing every fighting age male, raping women and children. This is a war for survival of Ukraine, and we are afraid to directly do anything against Russia because it has a big red nuclear button that actually takes 3 people to push.
> 
> We could be doing a lot more to hurt Russia, if you look, the majority of sanctions have only hit Russian imports, not exports, we the west claim to be on the moral high ground while still buying Russian oil, gas, coal, and other goods. This needs to stop, Russia needs to be brought to its knees, and fast.



There is bad shit happening all over the world.  Look at what's going on in Yemen.  Why is the Ukraine so important ? 

I get it, you want us to help.  We are.  The West trained the Ukrainians and now it's feeding them weapons.  And they seem to be winning.   

I don't see the reason to risk our way of life, yet.


----------



## McG

Halifax Tar said:


> I don't see the reason to risk our way of life, yet.


Too late. Our way of life is what is being fought over, and a Russian win will have permanent, irreversible impacts on our way of life in a direction that we are not going to like.


----------



## GR66

Halifax Tar said:


> There is bad shit happening all over the world.  Look at what's going on in Yemen.  Why is the Ukraine so important ?
> 
> I get it, you want us to help.  We are.  The West trained the Ukrainians and now it's feeding them weapons.  And they seem to be winning.
> 
> I don't see the reason to risk our way of life, yet.


Actually they seem to be "not losing" as in not losing their entire country.  

They've suffered significant military and civilian losses.  Millions of refugees have fled the country.  Their economy is in tatters.  Their infrastructure is devastated.  A significant portion of their industrial heartland is under enemy occupation.  And even if/when hostilities cease they will be under ongoing military threat which will force them to invest a significant portion of their greatly reduced national treasure in defending against further aggression.  

Russia also seems to be getting their military act together.  They are cutting their losses in the areas where their offensives have failed and reinforcing their successes in the East where their lines of communication and supply are better. We are very likely to see a significant portion of Ukraine occupied by Russia when this war eventually ends.


----------



## Haggis

Prairie canuck said:


> Russia also knows that a nuclear (or biological or chemical) attack will result in a retaliatory strike on Russian soil and so on and so on.


Will it, really?  The Russians have used chemical and biological weapons in the past with impunity.  No one, except the US have used nuclear weapons, and that use is pretty much ancient history to the society of 2022.  So no one knows what the reaction of today's society will be to such use, even in a limited fashion.


----------



## Halifax Tar

McG said:


> Too late. Our way of life is what is being fought over, and a Russian win will have permanent, irreversible impacts on our way of life in a direction that we are not going to like.



How so ? 



GR66 said:


> Actually they seem to be "not losing" as in not losing their entire country.
> 
> They've suffered significant military and civilian losses.  Millions of refugees have fled the country.  Their economy is in tatters.  Their infrastructure is devastated.  A significant portion of their industrial heartland is under enemy occupation.  And even if/when hostilities cease they will be under ongoing military threat which will force them to invest a significant portion of their greatly reduced national treasure in defending against further aggression.
> 
> Russia also seems to be getting their military act together.  They are cutting their losses in the areas where their offensives have failed and reinforcing their successes in the East where their lines of communication and supply are better. We are very likely to see a significant portion of Ukraine occupied by Russia when this war eventually ends.



I dunno all I see are tractors pulling away Russian tanks and talk of the Ukrainians advancing. 

Either way, I don't know about you, but I'm not willing to risk all we have, yet.   

Again why is the Ukraine the hill everyone seems to want to die on ?  There have been many conflicts with greater cost we've stayed out of.  Why is this one so important ?


----------



## MilEME09

Halifax Tar said:


> There is bad shit happening all over the world.  Look at what's going on in Yemen.  Why is the Ukraine so important ?
> 
> I get it, you want us to help.  We are.  The West trained the Ukrainians and now it's feeding them weapons.  And they seem to be winning.
> 
> I don't see the reason to risk our way of life, yet.



Feeding them weapons is great, but we need to stop being worried about angering Russia at this point. Cut off their exports, ban them from western ports, we can do a lot more without sending troops. That said you say our way of life isn't worth risking, I'd say it already is, Russia invaded partly because Ukraine wanted to become more western, that is an attack on our way of life, and just because it's not happening to our country doesn't mean we should stand by and watch.


----------



## Halifax Tar

MilEME09 said:


> Feeding them weapons is great, but we need to stop being worried about angering Russia at this point. Cut off their exports, ban them from western ports, we can do a lot more without sending troops. That said you say our way of life isn't worth risking, I'd say it already is, Russia invaded partly because Ukraine wanted to become more western, that is an attack on our way of life, and just because it's not happening to our country doesn't mean we should stand by and watch.



How is your way of life impacted by the war in the Ukraine ?  What changed ?  Gas prices ? 

I'm all for more economic sanctions.


----------



## MilEME09

Halifax Tar said:


> How is your way of life impacted by the war in the Ukraine ?  What changed ?  Gas prices ?
> 
> I'm all for more economic sanctions.


I'm of Ukrainian decent, I have family and friends in the conflict zone, hearing first hand accounts does impact people. We the west keep saying never again, Serbia, Rwanda, Yeman, and now Ukraine. How many genocides are you comfortable with? The western world is finally saying enough is enough


----------



## KevinB

Halifax Tar said:


> How is your way of life impacted by the war in the Ukraine ?  What changed ?  Gas prices ?
> 
> I'm all for more economic sanctions.


Something not worth dying for isn't worth having.

  We in the West need to practice what we preach - that means standing up to Russia and putting all the "Never Again" speeches aside - and actually using our force of Arms to do something about it.


----------



## Halifax Tar

MilEME09 said:


> I'm of Ukrainian decent, I have family and friends in the conflict zone, hearing first hand accounts does impact people. We the west keep saying never again, Serbia, Rwanda, Yeman, and now Ukraine. How many genocides are you comfortable with? The western world is finally saying enough is enough



Are they ?  Who is engaging ?  

How many "genocides" do you want us to head off to and "fix" ? 



KevinB said:


> Something not worth dying for isn't worth having.
> 
> We in the West need to practice what we preach - that means standing up to Russia and putting all the "Never Again" speeches aside - and actually using our force of Arms to do something about it.



Remember this.


----------



## Remius

It goes beyond just the “never again” thing.

This war into Ukraine is as much about Putin vs NATO as it is about Russia and whatever excuse they gave themselves to invade in the first place.  Putin is trying to reset geo political power.   You can bet that Ukraine is not the only goal. 

Russia has meddled in western elections, used cyber warfare brazenly and exerted influence in middle eastern conflicts to counter NATO and western interests.  They are a destabilizing force.  How this conflict ends will have ramifications that go beyond just Ukraine’s eastern territories.


----------



## Kirkhill

Halifax Tar said:


> How so ?
> 
> 
> 
> I dunno all I see are tractors pulling away Russian tanks and talk of the Ukrainians advancing.
> 
> Either way, I don't know about you, but I'm not willing to risk all we have, yet.
> 
> Again why is the Ukraine the hill everyone seems to want to die on ?  There have been many conflicts with greater cost we've stayed out of.  Why is this one so important ?



Perhaps it is because this engagement is so important to Russia, or should I say Moscow?

This engagement threatens to bring Russia down in a way that the collapse of 1992 didn't.  1992 was equivalent to the German Betrayal legend of 1918.  The citizen didn't see why the government gave up.  They felt betrayed.   And still do.

A battlefield loss, together with eating up the mechanical means of making war, and the loss of their sons will have an impact that was missing in 1992.

That is what Vlad fears more than anything else and why he is so dangerously unpredictable.

The West has the opportunity to remove Moscow as a player from the global boards for a long while and Moscow is behind Syria and  Iran and stirs up trouble where it can.  It is no bad thing if it were taken out of play (not nuked, just sidelined an relegated).  Despite the opinions of those that want to keep it in play to keep China in check.  I would sooner take Moscow out of the game and be able to focus efforts on Beijing.  With Beijing understanding that the military options have changed and their opportunities for mischief are reduced due to increased clarity resulting from fewer players.

Yemen, Rwanda, Vietnam, Rhodesia - all of them were horrific.  Moscow was a key instigator.  That is why this fight is important.  And more important than any of those other fights.

Not to mention the advantage of potentially taking Russia's nukes off the table in perpetuity.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Kirkhill said:


> Perhaps it is because this engagement is so important to Russia, or should I say Moscow?
> 
> This engagement threatens to bring Russia down in a way that the collapse of 1992 didn't.  1992 was equivalent to the German Betrayal legend of 1918.  The citizen didn't see why the government gave up.  They felt betrayed.   And still do.
> 
> A battlefield loss, together with eating up the mechanical means of making war, and the loss of their sons will have an impact that was missing in 1992.
> 
> That is what Vlad fears more than anything else and why he is so dangerously unpredictable.
> 
> The West has the opportunity to remove Moscow as a player from the global boards for a long while and Moscow is behind Syria and  Iran and stirs up trouble where it can.  It is no bad thing if it were taken out of play (not nuked, just sidelined an relegated).  Despite the opinions of those that want to keep it in play to keep China in check.  I would sooner take Moscow out of the game and be able to focus efforts on Beijing.  With Beijing understanding that the military options have changed and their opportunities for mischief are reduced due to increased clarity resulting from fewer players.
> 
> Yemen, Rwanda, Vietnam, Rhodesia - all of them were horrific.  Moscow was a key instigator.  That is why this fight is important.  And more important than any of those other fights.
> 
> Not to mention the advantage of potentially taking Russia's nukes off the table in perpetuity.



Two points: 

1)  All those places you mentioned were just as much the fault of the west as Russia. 

2)  The destabilization of Russia is probably not the best when you consider their vast nuclear arsenal.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Our way of life is what is being fought over, and a Russian win will have permanent, irreversible impacts on our way of life in a direction that we are not going to like.



Our way of life was fought over for the entire Cold War and beyond.  Looking at a map from, say, 1946 and a map from today, I'm skeptical "we" suffered permanent, irreversible impacts*.  "We" didn't intervene in Hungary or Czechoslovakia or Poland.

Same advice applies here as to all the other changes sought by people in a hurry: "we" aren't going to correct all the flaws by 5 PM today.  "We" just have to keep moving the ball one yard at a time, and accept that there will be setbacks and delays because of what is politically convenient or potentially unthinkable/intolerable.

*Worry more about the self-inflicted damage caused by people over-reacting to the fact they can't be in charge all of the time.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> I'm of Ukrainian decent, I have family and friends in the conflict zone, hearing first hand accounts does impact people. We the west keep saying never again, Serbia, Rwanda, Yeman, and now Ukraine. How many genocides are you comfortable with? The western world is finally saying enough is enough



Why?

Explain to me a rational argument on why we should commit Canadian military assets and people to directly confront Russia?

Sorry, but moral imperatives are bogus and there is no political imperative for directly confronting Russia, Militarily.  

If you want to fight Russia, go join the UAF but keep us out of it.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Why?
> 
> Explain to me a rational argument on why we should commit Canadian military assets and people to directly confront Russia?
> 
> Sorry, but moral imperatives are bogus and there is no political imperative for directly confronting Russia, Militarily.
> 
> If you want to fight Russia, go join the UAF but keep us out of it.



Yet


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Why?
> 
> Explain to me a rational argument on why we should commit Canadian military assets and people to directly confront Russia?
> 
> Sorry, but moral imperatives are bogus and there is no political imperative for directly confronting Russia, Militarily.
> 
> If you want to fight Russia, go join the UAF but keep us out of it.



Humphrey, see above 









						Ukraine - Superthread
					

Too late. Our way of life is what is being fought over, and a Russian win will have permanent, irreversible impacts on our way of life in a direction that we are not going to like.   How so ?    Actually they seem to be "not losing" as in not losing their entire country.    They've suffered...




					www.army.ca
				






Brad Sallows said:


> Our way of life was fought over for the entire Cold War and beyond.  Looking at a map from, say, 1946 and a map from today, I'm skeptical "we" suffered permanent, irreversible impacts*.  "We" didn't intervene in Hungary or Czechoslovakia or Poland.
> 
> Same advice applies here as to all the other changes sought by people in a hurry: "we" aren't going to correct all the flaws by 5 PM today.  "We" just have to keep moving the ball one yard at a time, and accept that there will be setbacks and delays because of what is politically convenient or potentially unthinkable/intolerable.
> 
> *Worry more about the self-inflicted damage caused by people over-reacting to the fact they can't be in charge all of the time.



And I am all in favour of a softly-softly approach.  Taking what ground you can when you can get it.  Ideally moving in when the enemy vacates or ignores territory.  But I am not in favour of idleness and letting risk prohibit action.

Yes.  The West is at fault in conflict with Moscow and Beijing.  Just as any belligerent is at fault for not rolling over and playing dead.  And throughout the Cold War we fought on economic, diplomatic, political and military fronts all over the world.  Name a country where bullets flew that did not have a Moscow element to the discussion.  

Bullets flew.  ICBMs and SSBNs were deployed and Strategic Air Command flew.  And we're still here.

In the meantime though, while we were focusing on Moscow we and Moscow created our next competitor from the 1945 basket case that was China.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Kirkhill said:


> Humphrey, see above
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine - Superthread
> 
> 
> Too late. Our way of life is what is being fought over, and a Russian win will have permanent, irreversible impacts on our way of life in a direction that we are not going to like.   How so ?    Actually they seem to be "not losing" as in not losing their entire country.    They've suffered...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.army.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And I am all in favour of a softly-softly approach.  Taking what ground you can when you can get it.  Ideally moving in when the enemy vacates or ignores territory.  But I am not in favour of idleness and letting risk prohibit action.
> 
> Yes.  The West is at fault in conflict with Moscow and Beijing.  Just as any belligerent is at fault for not rolling over and playing dead.  And throughout the Cold War we fought on economic, diplomatic, political and military fronts all over the world.  Name a country where bullets flew that did not have a Moscow element to the discussion.
> 
> Bullets flew.  ICBMs and SSBNs were deployed and Strategic Air Command flew.  And we're still here.
> 
> In the meantime though, while we were focusing on Moscow we and Moscow created our next competitor from the 1945 basket case that was China.



Are you countering your previous position ?

I think the west (NATO) is playing this very well. 

No direct military involvement but our adversary is still being rocked.  

If such a time occurs where a NATO country is attacked then we should respond with the full might of our ability.


----------



## Kirkhill

Halifax Tar said:


> Are you countering your previous position ?



Far from it.  I am saying that I want to keep pushing Moscow as far as we can.  You and I disagree on how far that might be.  I am not perhaps as Gung Ho as some, nor do I see myself as careful as others.  I think there is still some slack to take up, some room for additional pressure.

As far as Canada is concerned I don't see us heading into Ukraine with troops or air anytime soon.   We have got enough on our plate preventing a repeat of Hong Kong in Latvia by supplying reinforcements, equipment upgrades, GBAD (the Ukrainians have taken delivery of, and deployed, with training, Starstreak in one week and recorded their first kill), F18s on air patrol and the RCN in the Baltic to cover a withdrawal if necessary.

In the meantime, other countries, that do have options, some of them nuclear capable, others nominally neutral, are all making their own calculations as to how much slack is left in the line.

Edit:  Lousy mixed metaphor - you have me pushing on a rope.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510665268032323595


----------



## YZT580

Halifax Tar said:


> Are you countering your previous position ?
> 
> I think the west (NATO) is playing this very well.
> 
> No direct military involvement but our adversary is still being rocked.
> 
> If such a time occurs where a NATO country is attacked then we should respond with the full might of our ability.


and it isn't me or my sons getting the bullet in the back of the head.


----------



## McG

McG said:


> Too late. Our way of life is what is being fought over, and a Russian win will have permanent, irreversible impacts on our way of life in a direction that we are not going to like.





Halifax Tar said:


> How so ?


Our way of life and our standard of living is based of an international system of order that has kept us safe and allowed us to prosper. This system is not without its faults and inconsistencies, but it is substantially more humane & stable than preceding structures that brought us two world wars in close succession.

Putin is taking a big giant crap on that system. He is setting the precedent that sovereign states are no longer involatile, and that the mighty may legitimately impose their will through violence. If Russia wins, this behaviour is again normalized. Other autocratic powers will take note that they can achieve their aims through unprovoked war, and so there will be more nationalistic and imperialistic wars. There will be more autocracies and kleptocracies. There will be less wealth and more poverty even here. Putin’s war even internationally normalizes the ludicrous ramblings of a few GOP politicians who pontificated on invading and “liberating” Canada from our elected government.


----------



## McG

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Sorry, but moral imperatives are bogus and there is no political imperative for directly confronting Russia, Militarily.


Canadian voters believe in moral imperatives and this belief creates political imperative.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Kirkhill said:


> Far from it.  I am saying that I want to keep pushing Moscow as far as we can.  You and I disagree on how far that might be.  I am not perhaps as Gung Ho as some, nor do I see myself as careful as others.  I think there is still some slack to take up, some room for additional pressure.
> 
> As far as Canada is concerned I don't see us heading into Ukraine with troops or air anytime soon.   We have got enough on our plate preventing a repeat of Hong Kong in Latvia by supplying reinforcements, equipment upgrades, GBAD (the Ukrainians have taken delivery of, and deployed, with training, Starstreak in one week and recorded their first kill), F18s on air patrol and the RCN in the Baltic to cover a withdrawal if necessary.
> 
> In the meantime, other countries, that do have options, some of them nuclear capable, others nominally neutral, are all making their own calculations as to how much slack is left in the line.
> 
> Edit:  Lousy mixed metaphor - you have me pushing on a rope.



Don't take this the wrong way, but I generally look sideways at those calling for war if they aren't going to be fighting in it themselves.

There is a time and place for Canada and NATO to start flinging lead at Russia.  That time may come, but its not yet.  And so far it looks likes the statesmen of the west seem to agree with me.



YZT580 said:


> and it isn't me or my sons getting the bullet in the back of the head.



Life is shit all over this planet.  What makes the Ukraine so special ?



McG said:


> Our way of life and our standard of living is based of an international system of order that has kept us safe and allowed us to prosper. This system is not without its faults and inconsistencies, but it is substantially more humane & stable than preceding structures that brought us two world wars in close succession.
> 
> Putin is taking a big giant crap on that system. He is setting the precedent that sovereign states are no longer involatile, and that the mighty may legitimately impose their will through violence. If Russia wins, this behaviour is again normalized. Other autocratic powers will take note that they can achieve their aims through unprovoked war, and so there will be more nationalistic and imperialistic wars. There will be more autocracies and kleptocracies. There will be less wealth and more poverty even here. Putin’s war even internationally normalizes the ludicrous ramblings of a few GOP politicians who pontificated on invading and “liberating” Canada from our elected government.



The world has not been in some peaceful state since WW2.   In fact it can be argued its become more violent.  With respect MCG, and I do think very highly of your positions, but from where I sit you're reaching here.

*I will repeat this:*
There is a time and place for Canada and NATO to start flinging lead at Russia.  That time may come, but its not yet.  And so far it looks likes the statesmen of the west seem to agree with me.


----------



## Kirkhill

Pretty sure that in the nuclear war that concerns you I, along with my wife and kids, would be a combatant.

I might have a stake in it.  

And, as I've said before, I volunteered some time back and got lucky that nobody ever tapped me on the shoulder.

Cheers, HT.


----------



## The Bread Guy

brihard said:


> More and more, and worse and worse photos and videos keep coming out of Bucha. It’s looking increasingly like there was deliberate and wide scale murder of civilians by the Russian army.
> 
> The international narrative and response to Russia’s war of aggression needs to take these developments into account. While this may have been Putin’s war to begin with, Russia, as a country, is showing itself to be OK with what’s happening in Ukraine, and Russia’s army at all levels appears to be perpetrating or complicit in atrocity.


In the words of @DarthPutinKGB, Do not believe _anything_ until the Kremlin denies itTM(archive link to RUS state media article) ...


> Photos and videos from Ukraine’s Bucha "evidencing the crimes" of the Russian military are yet another fake stages by the Kiev regime for the Western media, the Russian defense ministry said on Sunday.
> 
> "The photos and videos from Bucha are fakes staged by the Kiev regime for the Western media, as it was done at a Mariupol maternity home and in other cities," it stressed.


OP edit to add safe PDF of official RUS MoD denial


----------



## Halifax Tar

Kirkhill said:


> Pretty sure that in the nuclear war that concerns you I, along with my wife and kids, would be a combatant.
> 
> I might have a stake in it.
> 
> And, as I've said before, I volunteered some time back and got lucky that nobody ever tapped me on the shoulder.
> 
> Cheers, HT.



All war concerns me.  Nuclear or conventional.  My point stands. 

So is your family worth risking ?  I know mine isnt, yet.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Kirkhill said:


> Far from it.  I am saying that I want to keep pushing Moscow as far as we can.  You and I disagree on how far that might be.  I am not perhaps as Gung Ho as some, nor do I see myself as careful as others.  I think there is still some slack to take up, some room for additional pressure.
> 
> As far as Canada is concerned I don't see us heading into Ukraine with troops or air anytime soon.   We have got enough on our plate preventing a repeat of Hong Kong in Latvia by supplying reinforcements, equipment upgrades, GBAD (the Ukrainians have taken delivery of, and deployed, with training, Starstreak in one week and recorded their first kill), F18s on air patrol and the RCN in the Baltic to cover a withdrawal if necessary.
> 
> In the meantime, other countries, that do have options, some of them nuclear capable, others nominally neutral, are all making their own calculations as to how much slack is left in the line.
> 
> Edit:  Lousy mixed metaphor - you have me pushing on a rope.



There are plenty of things we can do that don't involve direct military confrontation.  I've already stated a few in this thread:

Guarantee freedom of navigation for commercial shipping is one of them. (Which nobody has even discussed in this thread).

I also think the present strategy is working so what's the imperative to change? 



McG said:


> Canadian voters believe in moral imperatives and this belief creates political imperative.



This isn't true though is it?  If Canadian voters believed in moral imperatives, we would have a well funded military that wouldn't have cut tail and run out of Southern Afghanistan in 2011, we wouldn't have been known in Yugo as the CANTBATs and we would have actually sent a force to support Romeo Dallaire in Rwanda.

The Canadian State is a realist actor and moral imperatives carry very little weight in actuality.

The only reason Canada gives two craps about Ukraine is because:

a)  we have a large Ukrainian diaspora; and
b)  said diaspora is politically connected

Ukraine itself isn't worth 1 Canadian soldier's life.      If someone here wants to fight in Ukraine or support those that do, that's a personal choice.


----------



## Booter

The Bread Guy said:


> In the words of @DarthPutinKGB, Do not believe _anything_ until the Kremlin denies itTM(archive link to RUS state media article) ...


I’ve been reading”the new czar” and following this stuff- I marvel quite often at how frequently “that’s a lie” has worked for Russia/Putin.

Just say “no I didn’t”, “the evidence isn’t true”, “that’s a conspiracy” and not only do people just let it go- they don’t ever get held to account on it. 

Russia/Putin has been running the same play since the collapse of the Soviet Union and it has continuously worked. 

Find the war crimes. Send the investigators. Publish the evidence. Hang the bastard.


----------



## Booter

Humphrey Bogart said:


> There are plenty of things we can do that don't involve direct military confrontation.  I've already stated a few in this thread:
> 
> Guarantee freedom of navigation for commercial shipping is one of them. (Which nobody has even discussed in this thread).
> 
> I also think the present strategy is working so what's the imperative to change?
> 
> 
> 
> This isn't true though is it?  If Canadian voters believed in moral imperatives, we would have a well funded military that wouldn't have cut tail and run out of Southern Afghanistan in 2011, we wouldn't have been known in Yugo as the CANTBATs and we would have actually sent a force to support Romeo Dallaire in Rwanda.
> 
> The Canadian State is a realist actor and moral imperatives carry very little weight in actuality.
> 
> The only reason Canada gives two craps about Ukraine is because:
> 
> a)  we have a large Ukrainian diaspora; and
> b)  said diaspora is politically connected
> 
> Ukraine itself isn't worth 1 Canadian soldier's life.      If someone here wants to fight in Ukraine or support those that do, that's a personal choice.


I actually agree with both of you on this (big whoop I’m sure).

Moral issues make political issues, but moral follow through requires sacrifice- and while the government and Canadians love to talk a big game- our commitment to follow through when the cheque comes due is lacking. In some of the population anyways- I know we as a military family paid high cost. But we lost the stomach to continue is spite of cost


----------



## Kirkhill

Halifax Tar said:


> All war concerns me.  Nuclear or conventional.  My point stands.
> 
> So is your family worth risking ?  I know mine isnt, yet.



I consider my family at risk now. In fact I consider my family has always been at risk from nuclear war.  The risk is a bit more elevated these days.  Vlad has been unstable for a while.  

I was born the year of the Hungarian Revolution, have lived through the building of the Berlin Wall, Gary Powers, the Bay of Pigs, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Prague Spring and the liberation of Czechoslovakia and the IRBM/Cruise missile eras and the fall of the Berlin Wall And we're still here.  Somewhere along the line I forgot how to worry.


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> There are plenty of things we can do that don't involve direct military confrontation.  I've already stated a few in this thread:
> 
> Guarantee freedom of navigation for commercial shipping is one of them. (Which nobody has even discussed in this thread).
> 
> I also think the present strategy is working so what's the imperative to change?
> 
> 
> 
> This isn't true though is it?  If Canadian voters believed in moral imperatives, we would have a well funded military that wouldn't have cut tail and run out of Southern Afghanistan in 2011, we wouldn't have been known in Yugo as the CANTBATs and we would have actually sent a force to support Romeo Dallaire in Rwanda.
> 
> The Canadian State is a realist actor and moral imperatives carry very little weight in actuality.
> 
> The only reason Canada gives two craps about Ukraine is because:
> 
> a)  we have a large Ukrainian diaspora; and
> b)  said diaspora is politically connected
> 
> Ukraine itself isn't worth 1 Canadian soldier's life.      If someone here wants to fight in Ukraine or support those that do, that's a personal choice.



Humphrey, you and I both know that these discussions continue long after governments decide what they are going to do.  In Canada they lead to conscription crises and separatist referenda and pacifist movements.

Some individuals take their moral imperatives seriously.  Others find, or reject, different motives.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Kirkhill said:


> I consider my family at risk now. In fact I consider my family has always been at risk from nuclear war.  The risk is a bit more elevated these days.  Vlad has been unstable for a while.
> 
> I was born the year of the Hungarian Revolution, have lived through the building of the Berlin Wall, Gary Powers, the Bay of Pigs, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Prague Spring and the liberation of Czechoslovakia and the IRBM/Cruise missile eras and the fall of the Berlin Wall And we're still here.  Somewhere along the line I forgot how to worry.



Maybe that's the problem.   

I am not sure there has been a point since perhaps the CMC or Able Archer '83 where we have been this close to open conflict with Russia. 

We need to tread very carefully, were in a minefield.


----------



## Kirkhill

Booter said:


> I’ve been reading”the new czar” and following this stuff- I marvel quite often at how frequently “that’s a lie” has worked for Russia/Putin.
> 
> Just say “no I didn’t”, “the evidence isn’t true”, “that’s a conspiracy” and not only do people just let it go- they don’t ever get held to account on it.
> 
> Russia/Putin has been running the same play since the collapse of the Soviet Union and it has continuously worked.
> 
> Find the war crimes. Send the investigators. Publish the evidence. Hang the bastard.



A lot of people prefer to accept the lie.


----------



## Kirkhill

Halifax Tar said:


> Maybe that's the problem.
> 
> I am not sure there has been a point since perhaps the CMC or Able Archer '83 where we have been this close to open conflict with Russia.
> 
> We need to tread very carefully, were in a minefield.



I agree.  We do need to be careful.  We are in a minefield.  What is your preferred Course of Action on discovering you are in a minefield?  Freeze?  Retire, record and bypass?  Retire and clear?  Push forwards with care?  I can agree that running forwards regardless is not a COA that I would be comfortable choosing.


----------



## Brad Sallows

Putin isn't setting much of a precedent.  Compare the Crimean annexation to this war.  I suppose people experience all this differently.  My experience is that the slider moved a bit further away from "passive" toward "active".  The trend is more important than the event.

There are other ways to contribute.
1. Buy more ammunition, increase customary holdings, have a plan to expend older munitions while acquiring new.
2. Plant more wheat than usual.
3. Stop strangling trade and industry in the name of "climate emergency".  There is too much other sh!t really going on right now that is not hypothetical.

If this war continues through planting season in that region, the big kids who always like to have a crisis to play with will have a new one.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Brad Sallows said:


> Putin isn't setting much of a precedent.  Compare the Crimean annexation to this war.  I suppose people experience all this differently.  My experience is that the slider moved a bit further away from "passive" toward "active".  The trend is more important than the event.
> 
> There are other ways to contribute.
> 1. Buy more ammunition, increase customary holdings, have a plan to expend older munitions while acquiring new.
> 2. Plant more wheat than usual.
> 3. Stop strangling trade and industry in the name of "climate emergency".  There is too much other sh!t really going on right now that is not hypothetical.
> 4.  Be an honest broker between parties when one is needed ...


Added that one in yellow - in a perfect world, anyway (or one where we've been taken a bit more seriously in the past).


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> Added that one in yellow - in a perfect world, anyway (or one where we've been taken a bit more seriously in the past).



We've been telling ourselves that for years.  But except for Trudeau Sr's brief Non-Aligned flirtation, rapidly corrected by our Allies, has there ever been a time we haven't picked a side?

And if you look at the history of Neutral Countries, eg Sweden, Finland, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Switzerland, Austria, Yugoslavia  during WW2, has there ever been any doubt that they didn't have their preferences?

There are no honest brokers that are seen as impartial observers.  Everyone is looked at askance.


----------



## Jarnhamar

The threat of a nuclear holocaust should be a no brainer but the west has lost sons, daughters, mothers and fathers because our governments have told us atrocities are happening and as a free and democratic society we're obligated to do something. It's our duty.

-Girls in Afghanistan aren't allowed to go to school.
-Saddam is killing his own people.
-Kurds are being abused.
-15 year old Nayirah witnessed Iraq soldiers taking babies out of incubators and leaving them to die (turned out to be atrocity propaganda)

There's a clear difference in terms of risk between fighting dudes in a desert and a peer-level nuclear armed opponent.

Be that as it may, all that "we're a democracy", "freedom!" and "we need to do something because it's the right thing to do" messaging can really shape and condition peoples views. We shouldn't be surprised some of us shrug at the prospect of a billion deaths because a hundred people were murdered and _we need to do something._


----------



## Halifax Tar

Kirkhill said:


> I agree.  We do need to be careful.  We are in a minefield.  What is your preferred Course of Action on discovering you are in a minefield?  Freeze?  Retire, record and bypass?  Retire and clear?  Push forwards with care?  I can agree that running forwards regardless is not a COA that I would be comfortable choosing.



Pull out your bayonet and carefully navigate your way out. 

In this scenario, stay the current course until such time as a NATO has been actively engaged.  Then, we go to war.


----------



## Good2Golf

McG said:


> Canadian voters believe in moral imperatives and this belief creates political imperative.


Arguably, Canadian voters strongest moral imperatives are providing improved dental care and free prescriptions for their loved ones, with a close second being the moral imperative to reduce carbon in the global economy to ensure their offspring have a safe, clean carbon-neutral environment to live in.

(I wish I was joking, but it’s the de facto truth…)


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Amazing how desensitized the West has become to that narrative. I think the shit show in Afghanistan over the past 25 years is weighing large on the minds of NATO and the POTUS.


----------



## Halifax Tar

rmc_wannabe said:


> Amazing how desensitized the West has become to that narrative. I think the shit show in Afghanistan over the past 25 years is weighing large on the minds of NATO and the POTUS.



We don't have a great track record in getting involved in other people's conflicts.


----------



## Remius

rmc_wannabe said:


> Amazing how desensitized the West has become to that narrative. I think the shit show in Afghanistan over the past 25 years is weighing large on the minds of NATO and the POTUS.


True.  But in this case we actually have people that are willing to fight for their country.


----------



## KevinB

Remius said:


> True.  But in this case we actually have people that are willing to fight for their country.


Honestly having been in Iraq and Afghanistan there where tons of people willing to fight for their country too, the difference was their idea of country didn’t necessarily match ours. 

With Ukraine we have a Western style Democratic country being attacked by Russia, if there is anything that the Western population should be able to find a common theme is here.  

We have a duty of care to Ukrainians, and Ukraine as a sovereign nation, as we the west where the ones who make promises and encouraged them to overthrow their Russian leaning government and join Western Democracy.  

I’m not suggesting we intentionally instigate a NATO v Russia shooting war, what I suggest is grab our nuts and give them a squeeze and use our combat power for good. 

@Humphrey Bogart made a good point about a Naval Flotilla into the Black Sea to guarantee humanitarian relief supplies.  
   Yes it puts a red line down to Russia, but they can hardly complain legitimately about it. 

@McG has made points about what NATO ground forces could do in Western Ukraine. Again yes it pushes a line to Russia, but it’s simply humanitarian zones - something we would have done in a heartbeat if Russia didn’t have nukes. 

Russia is the aggressor in this conflict. We shouldn’t bend over backwards for them, they don’t want nuclear war anymore than anyone here.  If they wanted that, they would have used them already.   Russia will resort to them IF Russias existence is threatened.   
   None of those two options or even a more aggressive No Fly Zone does that.   

Heck we could announce Monday that in two weeks NATO will be entering Ukraine to restore original UKR borders, and Russia still wouldn’t have a legitimate leg to stand on WRT their own territory or national security.   The only issue is it conflicts with VVP’s Dream of USSR 2.0, and regardless that is something we will always collide with.   

Given NATO has now committed to giving Ukraine Armed Forces long range Tube and Rocket Artillery, Longer Range Air Defense, as well as modern NATO Armor, advanced UAV’s and apparently NATO Aircraft going to be supplied, the illusion of NATO no longer being a party to the conflict cannot be maintained- we are de facto at War with Russia, BECAUSE of Russian action WRT Ukraine.


----------



## Kirkhill

Lines drawn.









						“Now we're going to f*ck them all.” What's happening in Russia's elites after a month of war
					

Sanctions and propaganda have rallied even those who were against the invasion around Putin




					faridaily.substack.com


----------



## Kirkhill

And my favourite historian's pessimistic take 

My one quibble is that he is talking about this short  5 week war.  He ignores the fact that the Ukrainians and the Russians have been exchanging fires for 8 years.

Pearl Harbor was 1941.  Japan invaded Manchuria in 1931.  Mussolini invaded Ethiopia in 1935. Franco's civil war began in 1936.  Hitler invaded the Sudetenland in 1938 and Poland in 1939.

This has already been a long war.  Longer if you look at it from Vlad's perspective.









						Seven Worst-Case Scenarios From the War in Ukraine
					

Most conflicts end quickly, but this one looks increasingly like it won’t. The repercussions could range from global stagflation to World War III.




					www.bloomberg.com


----------



## Good2Golf

Kirkhill said:


> Lines drawn.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> “Now we're going to f*ck them all.” What's happening in Russia's elites after a month of war
> 
> 
> Sanctions and propaganda have rallied even those who were against the invasion around Putin
> 
> 
> 
> 
> faridaily.substack.com


Sounds like tail-end Soviets have given up…



> Middle-aged people of about 45-50 years old, who caught the end of the Soviet era in their youth, are also continuing their affairs — without any special enthusiasm, but with understanding and acceptance of the situation. “Now it’s much more important to come to understand how we will live in these conditions,” says a source in this age category, who holds a high position in the power hierarchy and is considered a technocrat. “Yes, we’ll have to eat roots and give birth in the fields,” sadly ironizes another source in this age category. “But what are the other options?”



Millennials left behind don’t like hearing from those who got out before the war started.

If anything, Rustamova’s journalism trends affirm that Putin’s propaganda machine is apparently reinforcing the “either with us, or against us.”

Her early March writings coloured things as being much more uncertain.  









						Some Russian officials think invading Ukraine was 'a mistake' and are 'discouraged, frightened,' and 'making apocalyptic forecasts,' report says
					

The Russian journalist Farida Rustamova spoke to Kremlin officials for a Tuesday report. These accounts come from an English translation of her story.




					www.businessinsider.com
				




It seems that Russian citizens’ learned-helplessness may be consolidating now.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Why?
> 
> Explain to me a rational argument on why we should commit Canadian military assets and people to directly confront Russia?
> 
> Sorry, but moral imperatives are bogus and there is no political imperative for directly confronting Russia, Militarily.
> 
> If you want to fight Russia, go join the UAF but keep us out of it.


Sounds like a bit like the talk of Munich going on around here.


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510721782218690566


----------



## Czech_pivo

Halifax Tar said:


> Maybe that's the problem.
> 
> I am not sure there has been a point since perhaps the CMC or Able Archer '83 where we have been this close to open conflict with Russia.
> 
> We need to tread very carefully, were in a minefield.


Kosovo 1999, when Russia swooped in and preempted NATO at Pristina airport.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Czech_pivo said:


> Kosovo 1999, when Russia swooped in and preempted NATO at Pristina airport.



Thank god for cool headed British generals eh ?


----------



## Brad Sallows

"These people understand that their lives are now tied only to Russia, and that that’s where they’ll need to build them."

Response: Putin's Russia is not the only possible Russia.  Might you seek a different path?


----------



## Portnord

One issue that keeps getting glossed over: Ukraine handed over it's nukes on the basis of nuclear powers guaranteeing their borders and sovereignty. So if one of those rolls over them while the others (almost) just watch... how do you sell the NPT to every other medium sized power from now on?


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Honestly having been in Iraq and Afghanistan there where tons of people willing to fight for their country too, the difference was their idea of country didn’t necessarily match ours.
> 
> With Ukraine we have a Western style Democratic country being attacked by Russia, if there is anything that the Western population should be able to find a common theme is here.
> 
> We have a duty of care to Ukrainians, and Ukraine as a sovereign nation, as we the west where the ones who make promises and encouraged them to overthrow their Russian leaning government and join Western Democracy.
> 
> I’m not suggesting we intentionally instigate a NATO v Russia shooting war, what I suggest is grab our nuts and give them a squeeze and use our combat power for good.
> 
> @Humphrey Bogart made a good point about a Naval Flotilla into the Black Sea to guarantee humanitarian relief supplies.
> Yes it puts a red line down to Russia, but they can hardly complain legitimately about it.
> 
> @McG has made points about what NATO ground forces could do in Western Ukraine. Again yes it pushes a line to Russia, but it’s simply humanitarian zones - something we would have done in a heartbeat if Russia didn’t have nukes.
> 
> Russia is the aggressor in this conflict. We shouldn’t bend over backwards for them, they don’t want nuclear war anymore than anyone here.  If they wanted that, they would have used them already.   Russia will resort to them IF Russias existence is threatened.
> None of those two options or even a more aggressive No Fly Zone does that.
> 
> Heck we could announce Monday that in two weeks NATO will be entering Ukraine to restore original UKR borders, and Russia still wouldn’t have a legitimate leg to stand on WRT their own territory or national security.   The only issue is it conflicts with VVP’s Dream of USSR 2.0, and regardless that is something we will always collide with.
> 
> Given NATO has now committed to giving Ukraine Armed Forces long range Tube and Rocket Artillery, Longer Range Air Defense, as well as modern NATO Armor, advanced UAV’s and apparently NATO Aircraft going to be supplied, the illusion of NATO no longer being a party to the conflict cannot be maintained- we are de facto at War with Russia, BECAUSE of Russian action WRT Ukraine.


I would add that we also have 1+ million Ukrainians-Canadians who directly and indirectly influence events back in Ukraine, providing guidance and an example on what the place could be in the future.


----------



## GR66

Halifax Tar said:


> How is your way of life impacted by the war in the Ukraine ?  What changed ?  Gas prices ?
> 
> I'm all for more economic sanctions.


I think our way of life IS impacted by the war in Ukraine.  Sure there are the immediate, transitory things like higher gas prices, etc., but lets be honest, those things are minor.  More inconveniences than true threats to our society.

However, the broad conflict between the authoritarian, illiberal nations like Russia (and China) do pose a serious, long-term threat to our well-being.  The thriving of our society is based on the open exchange of people, ideas and goods between ourselves and a community of like-minded nations.  This "liberal world order" makes us each greater than we would be separately.  

What Russia is doing to Ukraine is a direct threat to that order.  They are trying to eliminate a nation that was moving toward joining that community (and further enriching the whole) while at the same time threatening the rest of the nations on their borders.  Even if Russia doesn't actually invade Poland, Estonia, Lithuania or Latvia they are hovering there as a threat.  And countries that feel threatened and aren't confident that their neighbours will come to their defence will tend to turn inward.  

Do you think the nationalist Law and Justice party of Poland will be strengthend or weakend by a militaristic Russia on their border?  Do you think the Baltic States will be more or less likely to be accommodating to the concerns of their significant Russian minorities after they've seen what Russia has done in the Donbas?  Do you think countries like the Philippines or Malaysia will be more or less likely to give in to Chinese economic and political pressures after they see that the West isn't willing to stand up against aggression?  

All these cumulative actions will make the world less liberal.  And we WILL be impacted negatively by that?  Getting things like global agreement on actions to fight climate change, over fishing, pollution, etc. will all be much more difficult or even impossible without a broad alliance of liberal nations that follow a rule-based order.  

We can let the authoritarian nations like Russia pick away at the liberal West and its allies, but don't kid yourself we are and will continue to pay a price for it. 

That being said, all along I've been against direct NATO military involvement in this war.  However, I think there are some caveats to that.

1)  In light of the total disregard that Russia has shown for the rules of armed conflict in their targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure and probable war crimes committed by their troops I think we should remove the self imposed limits we have placed on ourselves on what types of weapons we are willing to provide to Ukraine.  I'd be in favour of training Ukrainian pilots and ground crews on Western aircraft and providing them with the fighters they need to defend themselves.  I'd provide them with more/better SAM systems (Mistral, CAMM, NASAMS, etc.), anti-ship missiles, tanks, etc.

2)  I'd draw a clear red line for Russia.  If they use WMDs in Ukraine it will trigger direct NATO military involvement to liberate Ukraine.  It wouldn't automatically mean we'd retaliate in kind, but that our conventional forces would enter the fight alongside Ukraine to clear their territory to the 2022 border.


----------



## Skysix

GR66 said:


> 2)  I'd draw a clear red line for Russia.  If they use WMDs in Ukraine it will trigger direct NATO military involvement to liberate Ukraine.  It wouldn't automatically mean we'd retaliate in kind, but that our conventional forces would enter the fight alongside Ukraine to clear their territory to the *2014* border.


FTFY


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:


> ... There are no honest brokers that are seen as impartial observers.  Everyone is looked at askance.


Well, as one shot in the dark, I'm sure there's jurists about who could help on the war crimes side - think what the Mounties are doing, but way more and broader.


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> Well, as one shot in the dark, I'm sure there's jurists about who could help on the war crimes side - think what the Mounties are doing, but way more and broader.


I wish you luck in your search, Diogenes!


----------



## WLSC

Brad Sallows said:


> Our way of life was fought over for the entire Cold War and beyond.  Looking at a map from, say, 1946 and a map from today, I'm skeptical "we" suffered permanent, irreversible impacts*.  "We" didn't intervene in Hungary or Czechoslovakia or Poland.
> 
> Same advice applies here as to all the other changes sought by people in a hurry: "we" aren't going to correct all the flaws by 5 PM today.  "We" just have to keep moving the ball one yard at a time, and accept that there will be setbacks and delays because of what is politically convenient or potentially unthinkable/intolerable.
> 
> *Worry more about the self-inflicted damage caused by people over-reacting to the fact they can't be in charge all of the time.


Even if I believe that the West is « better », I also believe that in the big international chess game of diplomacy and intervention (economic or military) every one is cheating.  We (we being ALL western country, not only the big one) have also our share of « oups » (South America, Africa, Irak, etc).  I’m not sure if all those country that we « help » with an « oups » sees us as that good.  

Of course, we do not commit crime like the Russian are doing right now but our mismanagement cause a lot of disappointment that doesn’t help us at all.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510710338060230666


----------



## WLSC

Humphrey Bogart said:


> There are plenty of things we can do that don't involve direct military confrontation.  I've already stated a few in this thread:
> 
> Guarantee freedom of navigation for commercial shipping is one of them. (Which nobody has even discussed in this thread).
> 
> I also think the present strategy is working so what's the imperative to change?
> 
> 
> 
> This isn't true though is it?  If Canadian voters believed in moral imperatives, we would have a well funded military that wouldn't have cut tail and run out of Southern Afghanistan in 2011, we wouldn't have been known in Yugo as the CANTBATs and we would have actually sent a force to support Romeo Dallaire in Rwanda.
> 
> The Canadian State is a realist actor and moral imperatives carry very little weight in actuality.
> 
> The only reason Canada gives two craps about Ukraine is because:
> 
> a)  we have a large Ukrainian diaspora; and
> b)  said diaspora is politically connected
> 
> Ukraine itself isn't worth 1 Canadian soldier's life.      If someone here wants to fight in Ukraine or support those that do, that's a personal choice.


Most Canadians believe what they are told by the government.  We are really really naïve in the international affairs.  If a PM wish to down play reality IOT to push is agenda which play 100% into the provincial domain, instead of the federal play ground, they will buy it.  Each time something like Ukraine happens, there’s hope that naïveté ends, but it rarely last more than a couple of month.

That being said, I believe that we should push harder in our support for the UKR while in the same time, working so it’s not the last wake-up call.


----------



## Halifax Tar

FusMR said:


> Most Canadians believe what they are told by the government.  We are really really naïve in the international affairs.  If a PM wish to down play reality IOT to push is agenda which play 100% into the provincial domain, instead of the federal play ground, they will buy it.  Each time something like Ukraine happens, there’s hope that naïveté ends, but it rarely last more than a couple of month.
> 
> That being said, I believe that we should push harder in our support for the UKR while in the same time, working so it’s not the last wake-up call.



Let us also not forget that recent Canadian governments haven't exactly been committed to QOL, rehabilitation, and compensation of our wounded comrades.  

Remember they're asking for more than we can give.  

Perhaps this is another avenue we should sort out before we send more young people into a meat grinder.


----------



## KevinB

Halifax Tar said:


> Let us also not forget that recent Canadian governments haven't exactly been committed to QOL, rehabilitation, and compensation of our wounded comrades.
> 
> Remember they're asking for more than we can give.
> 
> Perhaps this is another avenue we should sort out before we send more young people into a meat grinder.


To be brutally honest, no one expects much of Canada if a shooting war between NATO and Russia was to occur.   
  We (USA) have over 120k Mil Pers in Europe for this.   Two Army Corps (V Armored and XVIII Airborne) additional SBCT as well as significant USAF assets.  
   The RCAF and CA are effectively non players in this.  The RCN has two fairly capable Frigates in the AO with NATO.


----------



## McG

Halifax Tar said:


> The world has not been in some peaceful state since WW2. In fact it can be argued its become more violent. With respect MCG, and I do think very highly of your positions, but from where I sit you're reaching here.


If you compare the 150 years leading to the Second World War, you will note there was substantially higher occurrence of state vs state wars. These are overall bad for society, bad for trade, & bad for business. One of the hypocrisies in the current is that it does nothing to stop intrastate conflict, but at least (I suppose) it stays contained in one state. But interstate war? If you invade your neighbour for land, power, influence, etc then the rest of the world is supposed to kick your sorry force out. This intent was baked into the founding of the UN, and it is the reason world armies mobilized to kick Iraq out of Kuwait. We have benefited from this world order.



Humphrey Bogart said:


> This isn't true though is it? If Canadian voters believed in moral imperatives, we would have a well funded military that wouldn't have cut tail and run out of Southern Afghanistan in 2011, we wouldn't have been known in Yugo as the CANTBATs and we would have actually sent a force to support Romeo Dallaire in Rwanda.


This is not evidence that voters don’t support acting on moral imperatives. It is evidence that, prior to Putin’s war, Canadians were not strong supporters of defence spending. This may be a sign of cognitive dissonance if your position is that healthy defence spending is a precondition for a state to act morally.  Canadians are wedded to a peacekeeping as an aspect of national identity because they believe in doing right. Politicians have campaigned on increasing peacekeeping contributions or raising new peacekeeping units because their polling shows that Canadians want to be a force for good. And since Putin launched his invasion, there is evidence that Canadians are ready to spend on defence now too.


----------



## Halifax Tar

KevinB said:


> To be brutally honest, no one expects much of Canada if a shooting war between NATO and Russia was to occur.
> We (USA) have over 120k Mil Pers in Europe for this.   Two Army Corps (V Armored and XVIII Airborne) additional SBCT as well as significant USAF assets.
> The RCAF and CA are effectively non players in this.  The RCN has two fairly capable Frigates in the AO with NATO.



A war with NATO V Russia will not be contained to the Ukrainian borders. 

I'd say it would be reasonable to expect massive casualties to our contingent in Latvia.  That's not mentioning who gets flown over.


----------



## KevinB

Halifax Tar said:


> A war with NATO V Russia will not be contained to the Ukrainian borders.
> 
> I'd say it would be reasonable to expect massive casualties to our contingent in Latvia.  That's not mentioning who gets flown over.


You are basing that on an assumption that it then goes beyond a Regional Conflict.  

The risk management plan for any potential NvR conflict would attempt to ensure it stayed contained to the UKR theatre. 

One thing I can tell you is the current situation it’s any more safe than if NATO kicks Russia out of the UKR.  
   Russia is being viciously polarized. The Putin crowd is consolidating, and they blame the west for their situation.


----------



## WLSC

KevinB said:


> To be brutally honest, no one expects much of Canada if a shooting war between NATO and Russia was to occur.
> We (USA) have over 120k Mil Pers in Europe for this.   Two Army Corps (V Armored and XVIII Airborne) additional SBCT as well as significant USAF assets.
> The RCAF and CA are effectively non players in this.  The RCN has two fairly capable Frigates in the AO with NATO.


We are irrelevant in the big scheme of things, thanks to our visionary politicians.  Canada is soooo back…


----------



## KevinB

FusMR said:


> We are irrelevant in the big scheme of things, thanks to our visionary politicians.  Canada is soooo back…


Yes and no, for the most part having a CANCON still gives some additional legitimacy, even if that CANCON isn’t militarily significant.


----------



## QV

FusMR said:


> We are irrelevant in the big scheme of things, thanks to our visionary politicians.  Canada is soooo back…


Militarily irrelevant, sure, and that can’t easily be reversed. But Canada could easier be the gas can of NATO…


----------



## Halifax Tar

KevinB said:


> You are basing that on an assumption that it then goes beyond a Regional Conflict.
> 
> The risk management plan for any potential NvR conflict would attempt to ensure it stayed contained to the UKR theatre.
> 
> One thing I can tell you is the current situation it’s any more safe than if NATO kicks Russia out of the UKR.
> Russia is being viciously polarized. The Putin crowd is consolidating, and they blame the west for their situation.



Any body who believes a NATO conflict with Russia will be held to within borders of the Ukraine is as naive as a Canadian politician.


----------



## KevinB

Halifax Tar said:


> Any body who believes a NATO conflict with Russia will be held to within borders of the Ukraine is as naive as a Canadian politician.


I don’t think you stupidly a lot of Russian doctrine. 
   They don’t view conflicts like the West does, they have several different categories, and a Ukraine based NATO intervention doesn’t crank the conflict out of a Regional Conflict.   They can’t expand the theatre unless they resort to CBRN warfare which is losing proposition for them.  
    Now would they resort to Tactical Nuclear usage in UKR, it depends if it meets their parameters, I don’t think if NATO was clear that it would be a simply UKR support and enforcing the 1991 border that they would want to roll the dice on a guaranteed end of Russia to try to force the issue.  

I also think that the UNGA resolution needs to clearly and emphatically pushed into Russia’s population and any and all IO methods be used to educate Russians on why Putin must go.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Halifax Tar said:


> A war with NATO V Russia will not be contained to the Ukrainian borders.
> 
> I'd say it would be reasonable to expect massive casualties to our contingent in Latvia.  That's not mentioning who gets flown over.


At this point in time, does the RA have the troops able to move on the Baltic’s? The Poles alone would have more than enough to deal with Kaliningrad and Belarus. The 120k US military troops would secure Ukraine/Baltic’s and the Romanians could quite easily deal with the Russian troops in Tranistria.  The Russian BS fleet would be on the bottom thanks to the naval assets in the eastern Med and their fleet in the Baltic would be sunk as well. 
Could the Russians target the Baltic’s with arty and some CAS, possibly, but large numbers of trained troops? Nope, don’t think they could at this stage. They don’t have the manpower for a front from the Baltic’s down to the BS. 
If they were to use Nukes, then, yes, mass casualties throughout all of the Baltic’s. Our number of troops in Latvia does not mean another HK or Dieppe - we don’t have anywhere those numbers deployed.  
I’d argue, right now, that Russia is at about the same point of danger as they were in late fall 1941. If it wasn’t for their nukes and justifiable fear of a nuclear winter, they would be toast.


----------



## KevinB

Let’s be honest it if wasn’t for the nukes, we’d be in Moscow.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Let’s be honest it if wasn’t for the nukes, we’d be in Moscow.


And the Chinese would be in Vladivostok and at Lake Baikal


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

McG said:


> This is not evidence that voters don’t support acting on moral imperatives. It is evidence that, prior to Putin’s war, Canadians were not strong supporters of defence spending. This may be a sign of cognitive dissonance if your position is that healthy defence spending is a precondition for a state to act morally.  Canadians are wedded to a peacekeeping as an aspect of national identity because they believe in doing right. Politicians have campaigned on increasing peacekeeping contributions or raising new peacekeeping units because their polling shows that Canadians want to be a force for good. And since Putin launched his invasion, there is evidence that Canadians are ready to spend on defence now too.



I never once spoke about Defence Spending so I don't know where you drew that from?  What I provided were clear examples of the Canadian State failing to act to achieve an outcome in a situation where there was a clear moral imperative to do so.

Morality is a tool that can be used to generate support for a cause, it is not a reason a State will act.  State's will take actions that are in their interests, it is interests, not moral imperatives, that drive actions.

You can evenly look domestically to our poor treatment of indigenous peoples that continues to this day with the Indian Act being a particularly terrible piece of legislation that is used to oppress entire populations.  There is a moral imperative to get rid of this legislation but it is not in the interest of the State to do so.  

So no I don't agree with your assessment and frankly, I think you've constructed a paradigm that isn't grounded in reality.



KevinB said:


> Let’s be honest it if wasn’t for the nukes, we’d be in Moscow.



100% but that's exactly why Countries like Russia maintain a nuclear arsenal.

Russia knows it would not win a conventional war against NATO, Putin even said so himself in a speech just before the 2022 offensive kicked off.   I will try and find the link for you.

Ukraine is in the margins and wars between Great Powers in the nuclear age are fought in the margins.


----------



## Halifax Tar

KevinB said:


> I don’t think you stupidly a lot of Russian doctrine.
> They don’t view conflicts like the West does, they have several different categories, and a Ukraine based NATO intervention doesn’t crank the conflict out of a Regional Conflict.   They can’t expand the theatre unless they resort to CBRN warfare which is losing proposition for them.
> Now would they resort to Tactical Nuclear usage in UKR, it depends if it meets their parameters, I don’t think if NATO was clear that it would be a simply UKR support and enforcing the 1991 border that they would want to roll the dice on a guaranteed end of Russia to try to force the issue.
> 
> I also think that the UNGA resolution needs to clearly and emphatically pushed into Russia’s population and any and all IO methods be used to educate Russians on why Putin must go.



Stupidly = studies I presume ? 

One doesn't have to be expert in Russian tactics to understand that starting a World War isnt the same as a regional conflict.  

The North Atlantic alone will become probably the most dangerous waters on earth.  



Czech_pivo said:


> At this point in time, does the RA have the troops able to move on the Baltic’s? The Poles alone would have more than enough to deal with Kaliningrad and Belarus. The 120k US military troops would secure Ukraine/Baltic’s and the Romanians could quite easily deal with the Russian troops in Tranistria.  The Russian BS fleet would be on the bottom thanks to the naval assets in the eastern Med and their fleet in the Baltic would be sunk as well.
> Could the Russians target the Baltic’s with arty and some CAS, possibly, but large numbers of trained troops? Nope, don’t think they could at this stage. They don’t have the manpower for a front from the Baltic’s down to the BS.
> If they were to use Nukes, then, yes, mass casualties throughout all of the Baltic’s. Our number of troops in Latvia does not mean another HK or Dieppe - we don’t have anywhere those numbers deployed.
> I’d argue, right now, that Russia is at about the same point of danger as they were in late fall 1941. If it wasn’t for their nukes and justifiable fear of a nuclear winter, they would be toast.



Are you in a rush to find out ?  Stay the course we're on, hope the UKR wins and peace prevails.  Otherwise let the Russians force a conflict with us.  Don't offer them the opportunity.

WRT their nukes don't get over confident here.  The Russians have been further against the wall than this. And specifically about nukes, they have them, and lots.  So fanciful alternate realties have no value.


----------



## Jarnhamar

KevinB said:


> Let’s be honest it if wasn’t for the nukes, we’d be in Moscow.


I was reading that we're still 15 years behind the technology we need to intercept ICMBs. I find that weird since we can land rockets on asteroids.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Halifax Tar said:


> Stupidly = studies I presume ?
> 
> One doesn't have to be expert in Russian tactics to understand that starting a World War is it the same as a regional conflict.
> 
> The North Atlantic alone will become probably the most dangerous waters on earth.
> 
> 
> 
> Are you in a rush to find out ?  Stay the course we're on, hope the UKR wins and peace prevails.  Otherwise let the Russians force a conflict with us.  Don't offer them the opportunity.
> 
> WRT their nukes don't get over confident here.  The Russians have been further against the wall than this. And specifically about nukes, they have them, and lots.  So fanciful alternate realties have no value.


Nope, no rush at all.
The story of the seasoned bull and the young bull comes to mind. I will paraphrase it.
The two bulls come to a crest of a hill and look out to the valley below full of cows without another bull to be seen. The young bull excitedly says, ‘Let’s gallop down the hill and f&*k us a cow!’ The old, seasoned bull says, ‘No, let’s calmly walk down this hill and f&*k all of them.’
I’m happy to give Putin enough rope to hang himself and when the time is right, we (NATO), go in there and pull the lever on him and all associated with him and give the Ukkies their revenge.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Czech_pivo said:


> Nope, no rush at all.
> The story of the seasoned bull and the young bull comes to mind. I will paraphrase it.
> The two bulls come to a crest of a hill and look out to the valley below full of cows without another bull to be seen. The young bull excitedly says, ‘Let’s gallop down the hill and f&*k us a cow!’ The old, seasoned bull says, ‘No, let’s calmly walk down this hill and f&*k all of them.’
> I’m happy to give Putin enough rope to hang himself and when the time is right, we (NATO), go in there and pull the lever on him and all associated with him and give the Ukkies their revenge.



Were on the same page then.


----------



## GR66

KevinB said:


> Let’s be honest it if wasn’t for the nukes, we’d be in Moscow.


I think the key to any intervention would be to make it perfectly clear that we have no intent to "be in Moscow"....or Minsk...or Kaliningrad, or anywhere else other than within the undisputed borders of Ukraine. 

I specifically stated pushing them back to the 2022 borders in my previous post deliberately.  NATO would need to very deliberately avoid widening the war beyond that so that Russia would know that the fighting in Ukraine would not lead to a general defeat of their military and an existential threat to their nation.  Stopping at the 2022 start line gives an off-ramp.  An opportunity for face saving and negotiation.  After all, Ukraine and Russia will still have to exist beside each other when this ugliness is all over.

Again, that's what I would say IF NATO were to intervene directly, but as I stated previously I think that should be avoided except in extreme circumstances (i.e. Russian first use of WMDs, or wholesale attempted genocide in Russian held parts of Ukraine).


----------



## KevinB

GR66 said:


> I think the key to any intervention would be to make it perfectly clear that we have no intent to "be in Moscow"....or Minsk...or Kaliningrad, or anywhere else other than within the undisputed borders of Ukraine.
> 
> I specifically stated pushing them back to the 2022 borders in my previous post deliberately.  NATO would need to very deliberately avoid widening the war beyond that so that Russia would know that the fighting in Ukraine would not lead to a general defeat of their military and an existential threat to their nation.  Stopping at the 2022 start line gives an off-ramp.  An opportunity for face saving and negotiation.  After all, Ukraine and Russia will still have to exist beside each other when this ugliness is all over.
> 
> Again, that's what I would say IF NATO were to intervene directly, but as I stated previously I think that should be avoided except in extreme circumstances (i.e. Russian first use of WMDs, or wholesale attempted genocide in Russian held parts of Ukraine).


Ukraine has already stated 1991 or bust as far as borders go.  There are countless examples already of Russian ‘ethnic cleansing’ wholesale murder. 

The question we need to ask Russia is do they want to remain on the planet or not?   It’s a fairly simple question.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Jarnhamar said:


> I was reading that we're still 15 years behind the technology we need to intercept ICMBs. I find that weird since we can land rockets on asteroids.



Tracking my man, there is also the problem of the Nuclear Triad and Russia's 2nd and 3rd strike capability.

Russia's Navy has a lot of issues but their submarine force is good.  They invest a lot of money in their strategic rocket forces.

BMD was never conceptualized to be able to defeat a State like Russia, it was designed for rogue actors capable of launching 1 or 2 missiles, not 500.  




GR66 said:


> I think the key to any intervention would be to make it perfectly clear that we have no intent to "be in Moscow"....or Minsk...or Kaliningrad, or anywhere else other than within the undisputed borders of Ukraine.
> 
> I specifically stated pushing them back to the 2022 borders in my previous post deliberately.  NATO would need to very deliberately avoid widening the war beyond that so that Russia would know that the fighting in Ukraine would not lead to a general defeat of their military and an existential threat to their nation.  Stopping at the 2022 start line gives an off-ramp.  An opportunity for face saving and negotiation.  After all, Ukraine and Russia will still have to exist beside each other when this ugliness is all over.
> 
> Again, that's what I would say IF NATO were to intervene directly, but as I stated previously I think that should be avoided except in extreme circumstances (i.e. Russian first use of WMDs, or wholesale attempted genocide in Russian held parts of Ukraine).



The primary means we use to fight Russia are:

















Conventional Warfare is not the answer.


----------



## GR66

KevinB said:


> Ukraine has already stated 1991 or bust as far as borders go.  There are countless examples already of Russian ‘ethnic cleansing’ wholesale murder.
> 
> The question we need to ask Russia is do they want to remain on the planet or not?   It’s a fairly simple question.


This is where I guess we fundamentally disagree.  I'd be more than happy to see Putin an his cronies banished from history, but If you threaten the existence of Russia as a state then that's when a whole variety of people get threatened and they may be willing to take the rest of the world down with them.  

Stop them from expanding and confront them on their excesses, but as far as "taking them out" we need to take the long game.  In the long run I am confident that we have the stronger society and if we work together we can outlast them.

$0.02


----------



## WLSC

KevinB said:


> Yes and no, for the most part having a CANCON still gives some additional legitimacy, even if that CANCON isn’t militarily significant.


What pisses me off, is that when the call willl come, we will respond like a « big » player with what we have while running like crazy to ramp up, continue all our task and of course helping with all the disasters as a first solution instead of being use a last resort.

Then, trauma of burned-out troops and other human drama will arise and the GC will slap us because we don’t take care of our troops… 🤷🏼‍♂️🤦‍♂️


----------



## YZT580

Halifax Tar said:


> Any body who believes a NATO conflict with Russia will be held to within borders of the Ukraine is as naive as a Canadian politician.


Canadian politicians are not naïve.  They are self-centred and egotistical and they share one trait with Putin in particular: they lie.  Having said that, you are correct.  Russia will try to push the boundary.  Fortunately, the Ukraines have given them such a bloody nose that their response will be limited.


----------



## Zipperhead99

I guess these T-72s will complement all the Russian ones that Ukraine has already captured!  Now, just need to get some MiG-29s to the Ukrainian Air Force!









						Soviet-Era T-72 Tanks To Be Transferred To Ukraine From NATO Countries: Reports
					

Reports state that a U.S.-brokered transfer of T-72 tanks to Ukraine from NATO countries’ Soviet-era stocks is imminent.




					www.thedrive.com


----------



## Remius

Zipperhead99 said:


> I guess these T-72s will complement all the Russian ones that Ukraine has already captured!  Now, just need to get some MiG-29s to the Ukrainian Air Force!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Soviet-Era T-72 Tanks To Be Transferred To Ukraine From NATO Countries: Reports
> 
> 
> Reports state that a U.S.-brokered transfer of T-72 tanks to Ukraine from NATO countries’ Soviet-era stocks is imminent.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedrive.com


They need to somehow get tractors airborne.  Then they will be bringing in MIGs.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Bucha mourns at mass graves in wreck of Russian retreat ​


----------



## MilEME09

Jarnhamar said:


> Bucha mourns at mass graves in wreck of Russian retreat​View attachment 69872


Sadly I think we will find many more with Russia in full retreat in the north. I fear even more so when Kherson is liberated.

Edit: Russian forces have also been leaving behind a lot of kit during this pull back


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510798316090572804


----------



## Prairie canuck

Halifax Tar said:


> Any body who believes a NATO conflict with Russia will be held to within borders of the Ukraine is as naive as a Canadian politician.


So the enlightened answer is to stand back and pass a few sticks and stones across the fence while cheering the Ukrainians on to keep fighting the bully? The naivety is to think we're safe if we don't call his bluff. Sure, we have his wallet but he has other friends and even some of our own friends giving him some cash for his wares. He'll adapt, he always has.
Sooner or later the bully will be at someone else's gate and he'll just wave the big stick at us again knowing we'll sit back because well, we're afraid of the big stick. We'll just keep our own big sticks in the shed so as to not upset him. 
The bully might even make some new friends in the east end of town who've been emboldened by how well waving a big stick works and this east end bully will start knocking in gates in his own neighbourhood while waving his own big stick. 
But hey, it's OK if they beat the neighbours  as long as they don't come into our yard right? Because we're afraid of the big stick and it's too much trouble to get ours out of the shed.


----------



## MilEME09

Not confronting a dictatorship because they have nukes basically tells the world we won't use hard power if you have nukes. Guess Taiwan, South Korea, and anyone else China bullies is on their own.

Eventually we gotta call the bluff, they aren't about to risk nuclear annihilation over a strategic goal they want.

Or do we need more this


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510738861286113282


----------



## Kirkhill

GR66 said:


> I think the key to any intervention would be to make it perfectly clear that we have no intent to "be in Moscow"....or Minsk...or Kaliningrad, or anywhere else other than within the undisputed borders of Ukraine.
> 
> I specifically stated pushing them back to the 2022 borders in my previous post deliberately.  NATO would need to very deliberately avoid widening the war beyond that so that Russia would know that the fighting in Ukraine would not lead to a general defeat of their military and an existential threat to their nation.  Stopping at the 2022 start line gives an off-ramp.  An opportunity for face saving and negotiation.  After all, Ukraine and Russia will still have to exist beside each other when this ugliness is all over.
> 
> Again, that's what I would say IF NATO were to intervene directly, but as I stated previously I think that should be avoided except in extreme circumstances (i.e. Russian first use of WMDs, or wholesale attempted genocide in Russian held parts of Ukraine).



My problem with that hypothesis is 168 BTGs.  There is a real possiblity that the Ukrainians have already stripped 20 years worth of renovated Brezhnev tanks from the Russian inventory.  Tanks that they haven't been able to build from scratch or effectively upgrade to one common pattern since Grozny.  The same pattern is true for BMDs/BMPs/BTRs, helicopters, anything with a rocket or a jet engine.  And apparently their EW assets aren't what we thought they were.

Shoigu built 168 BTGs by amalgamating various generations of kit.  1 GTA got the lion's share of the good stuff.  And they lost it.  168 BTGs = 1680 tanks.  Assume that the Ukrainians are right and they have knocked out some 700 or so.  That means that Putin has lost some 40% of Shoigu's army.  The remainder he is still throwing into the grinder in the Ukraine.  Does he do it for another 5 weeks and lose another 700?  Losing 80% of the strength?  

He has also eaten into his VDV that he used as a literal flying squad to beat down dissent in the regions and on his borders.

He has proven himself to be an undesirable employer.  Officer shoots himself because of the poor replacement gear he is issued.  Another officer is run over by one of his own tanks.  Junior officers leading from 15 km behind the front.  Units of his better troops mutiny.  Contract soldiers demanding release from their contracts because of poor working conditions.  Conscripts just deserting.  How long before mothers are telling their sons to take to the woods to avoid the draft?  If they haven't already.

Is Vlad going to be able to raise a well equipped, trained, motivated army with that?

My bet is he isn't.  And futher, I am willing to bet that Shoigu and the senior commanders know it too.  

I question whether there is enough of a "professional" army left to secure Russia.  

At some point the good people of St Petersburg, Kaliningrad, Belarus and Kazakhstan are going to push one more time and discover there is nothing pushing back.

Vlad's likely end state is a pile of rusting T55s, a bunch of Wagnerians, Chechens and Rosgvardia armed and equipped to suppress riots and chase reluctant conscripts out of the forests.  

Oh.   And a boatload of nukes of indeterminate serviceability.

How do we respond?

Because no matter how you look at it Ukraine has already won.  They have already humiliated Vlad by denying him Kyiv and Zelenskyy.  They have already planted new thoughts in dissident minds.  

And Moscow knows things are bad when they are stripping Kaliningrad for reserves.  Kaliningrad that was supposed to be the nuclear gun to the head of Europe.


----------



## Zipperhead99

Latest assessments from ISW





__





						Institute for the Study of War
					

Ukraine has won the Battle of Kyiv. Russian forces are completing their withdrawal, but not in good order. Ukrainian forces are continuing to clear Kyiv Oblast of isolated Russian troops left behind in the retreat, which some Ukrainian officials describe




					www.understandingwar.org


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> My problem with that hypothesis is 168 BTGs.  There is a real possiblity that the Ukrainians have already stripped 20 years worth of renovated Brezhnev tanks from the Russian inventory.  Tanks that they haven't been able to build from scratch or effectively upgrade to one common pattern since Grozny.  The same pattern is true for BMDs/BMPs/BTRs, helicopters, anything with a rocket or a jet engine.  And apparently their EW assets aren't what we thought they were.
> 
> Shoigu built 168 BTGs by amalgamating various generations of kit.  1 GTA got the lion's share of the good stuff.  And they lost it.  168 BTGs = 1680 tanks.  Assume that the Ukrainians are right and they have knocked out some 700 or so.  That means that Putin has lost some 40% of Shoigu's army.  The remainder he is still throwing into the grinder in the Ukraine.  Does he do it for another 5 weeks and lose another 700?  Losing 80% of the strength?
> 
> He has also eaten into his VDV that he used as a literal flying squad to beat down dissent in the regions and on his borders.
> 
> He has proven himself to be an undesirable employer.  Officer shoots himself because of the poor replacement gear he is issued.  Another officer is run over by one of his own tanks.  Junior officers leading from 15 km behind the front.  Units of his better troops mutiny.  Contract soldiers demanding release from their contracts because of poor working conditions.  Conscripts just deserting.  How long before mothers are telling their sons to take to the woods to avoid the draft?  If they haven't already.
> 
> Is Vlad going to be able to raise a well equipped, trained, motivated army with that?
> 
> My bet is he isn't.  And futher, I am willing to bet that Shoigu and the senior commanders know it too.
> 
> I question whether there is enough of a "professional" army left to secure Russia.
> 
> At some point the good people of St Petersburg, Kaliningrad, Belarus and Kazakhstan are going to push one more time and discover there is nothing pushing back.
> 
> Vlad's likely end state is a pile of rusting T55s, a bunch of Wagnerians, Chechens and Rosgvardia armed and equipped to suppress riots and chase reluctant conscripts out of the forests.
> 
> Oh.   And a boatload of nukes of indeterminate serviceability.
> 
> How do we respond?
> 
> Because no matter how you look at it Ukraine has already won.  They have already humiliated Vlad by denying him Kyiv and Zelenskyy.  They have already planted new thoughts in dissident minds.
> 
> And Moscow knows things are bad when they are stripping Kaliningrad for reserves.  Kaliningrad that was supposed to be the nuclear gun to the head of Europe.


Don't forgot while 700 might be destroyed, how many are at field work shops needing a 3rd or 4th line overhaul? Given their rate of abandonment of kit I have serious questions as to their ability to keep spare parts flowing and to repair kit close to the front


----------



## Skysix

Interesting analysis. Seen from the Russian perspective NATO, ice or Japan control every access it has to transoceanic trade and NATO is encircling it for, in a paranoid Russian mind, what could only be part of a generational plan to choke Russia into submission. Until climate change and class 9 icebreakers open a route to the south Atlantic they will continue to feel threatened by lack of global trade opportunities.

"Know thy enemy and know yourself; in a hundred battles, you will never be defeated. When you are ignorant of the enemy but know yourself, your chances of winning or losing are equal. If ignorant both of your enemy and of yourself, you are sure to be defeated in every battle." Sun Tzu


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

"Gold Jerry, gold I tell ya!"


----------



## KevinB

Soldier35 said:


> Footage of the combat departure of Ka-52 attack helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces was published by the Ministry of Defense. The training  mission was to appear to be effective and scary - Fail





Soldier35 said:


> After the route of Russian troops in Kiev they attempted to flee to Donbass to assist the botched invasion of more Ukrainian territories, Ukrainian troops entered the Antonov International Airport in the village of Gostomel. One of the eyewitnesses took a close-up of the wreckage of the largest aircraft in the world An-225 "Mriya". Russian forces destroyed the world's largest AN-225 Mriya transport aircraft due to the Illegal Invasion of Ukraine by Russian Forces which has been globally condemned and Russia sanctioned and is now a global pariah.


Fixed it for you.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Prairie canuck said:


> So the enlightened answer is to stand back and pass a few sticks and stones across the fence while cheering the Ukrainians on to keep fighting the bully? The naivety is to think we're safe if we don't call his bluff. Sure, we have his wallet but he has other friends and even some of our own friends giving him some cash for his wares. He'll adapt, he always has.
> Sooner or later the bully will be at someone else's gate and he'll just wave the big stick at us again knowing we'll sit back because well, we're afraid of the big stick. We'll just keep our own big sticks in the shed so as to not upset him.
> The bully might even make some new friends in the east end of town who've been emboldened by how well waving a big stick works and this east end bully will start knocking in gates in his own neighbourhood while waving his own big stick.
> But hey, it's OK if they beat the neighbours  as long as they don't come into our yard right? Because we're afraid of the big stick and it's too much trouble to get ours out of the shed.



Your analogy is too simple.  

We're on a good course.  The UKR seems to be winning.  We've (NATO) fed them weapons and stores, and we've trained their forces.

When Russia attacks NATO then we respond.


----------



## GR66

Halifax Tar said:


> Your analogy is too simple.
> 
> We're on a good course.  The UKR seems to be winning.  We've (NATO) fed them weapons and stores, and we've trained their forces.
> 
> When Russia attacks NATO then we respond.


You keep saying this.  They are still holding out.  They have inflicted significant losses on the Russians and forced them to revise their strategic objectives, but their country is devastated, their economy in tatters, they have taken significant losses themselves, much of their population has been forced to flee and a significant portion of their country is occupied.


----------



## KevinB

Halifax Tar said:


> Your analogy is too simple.
> 
> We're on a good course.  The UKR seems to be winning.  We've (NATO) fed them weapons and stores, and we've trained their forces.
> 
> When Russia attacks NATO then we respond.


I see you have transitioned to WHEN Russia attacks….  

My concern if the Ukrainian conflict goes on much further than Russia’s history will catch up to them, and other states that have grievances with Russia will act given Russian draw down of anything outside of Russia’s Western region. 

If that occurs, then it expands past a regional conflict, into a global one, and all bets are off.  
  NATO will need to guarantee Russian 1991 sovereign borders at that point, for Russia needs to see a world with Russia in it to ensure they don’t ‘Go Big’.  

We (the Western world) will also need to show Russians we want to help them rejoin the world, and have a clear Marshall Plan 2.0 setup for Eastern Europe that will bring their standards of living up significantly and ensure the Robber Baron aspect of the Oligarchs don’t continue.  While also allowing enough of the Oligarchs an out to retire in comfort so they have a reason to live as well.


----------



## Halifax Tar

GR66 said:


> You keep saying this.  They are still holding out.  They have inflicted significant losses on the Russians and forced them to revise their strategic objectives, but their country is devastated, their economy in tatters, they have taken significant losses themselves, much of their population has been forced to flee and a significant portion of their country is occupied.



This isn't a 3 hour video game.  This will take a while to complete and right now the UKR gaining ground.  The Russians are in full retreat from the capital for gods sakes.  

Stay the course.  



KevinB said:


> I see you have transitioned to WHEN Russia attacks….
> 
> My concern if the Ukrainian conflict goes on much further than Russia’s history will catch up to them, and other states that have grievances with Russia will act given Russian draw down of anything outside of Russia’s Western region.
> 
> If that occurs, then it expands past a regional conflict, into a global one, and all bets are off.
> NATO will need to guarantee Russian 1991 sovereign borders at that point, for Russia needs to see a world with Russia in it to ensure they don’t ‘Go Big’.
> 
> We (the Western world) will also need to show Russians we want to help them rejoin the world, and have a clear Marshall Plan 2.0 setup for Eastern Europe that will bring their standards of living up significantly and ensure the Robber Baron aspect of the Oligarchs don’t continue.  While also allowing enough of the Oligarchs an out to retire in comfort so they have a reason to live as well.



When/If you can exchange them in my statement.  Dont get too excited. 

Russia can sleep in the bed it's made WRT to its former states.  This is a problem for the Russian people to solve.  Same with the internal fallout from this conflict. 

As for helping rebuild them, I'm all for it. Let's all kick in and help them out.  As well as the UKR.


----------



## McG

Ukraine is not currently losing, but they cannot defeat Russia. The bear needs to give-up for the porcupine to win.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510926559858896896


----------



## Halifax Tar

McG said:


> Ukraine is not currently losing, but they cannot defeat Russia. The bear needs to give-up for the porcupine to win.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510926559858896896



Russia giving up is their defeat.  

I don't think anyone expects the UKR Army to be advancing on Moscow in a few months.


----------



## Furniture

Halifax Tar said:


> This isn't a 3 hour video game.  This will take a while to complete and right now the UKR gaining ground.  The Russians are in full retreat from the capital for gods sakes.
> 
> Stay the course.


The longer we allow Ukraine to suffer ethnic cleansing, and other war crimes from the Russians, the more likely we are to lose Ukraine as a Western aligned nation. 

Why align with us if all we will do is sit back and watch you die, so we don't have to write letters to grieving parents/partners?


----------



## Halifax Tar

Furniture said:


> The longer we allow Ukraine to suffer ethnic cleansing, and other war crimes from the Russians, the more likely we are to lose Ukraine as a Western aligned nation.
> 
> Why align with us if all we will do is sit back and watch you die, so we don't have to write letters to grieving parents/partners?



Bad shit is happening all over the world.  

We're playing this right.  There is a time to fight Russia, that time isn't yet.


----------



## McG

Halifax Tar said:


> Russia giving up is their defeat.


But Russia doesn’t give-up until defeated. It freezes the conflict, learns a few lessons, heals, and then attacks again with more force and violence. The porcupine needs the eagle, the lion, other friends from the continental mainland, and even little beaver.


----------



## McG

Halifax Tar said:


> Bad shit is happening all over the world.


What other comparable state on state war is happening somewhere else?


----------



## Halifax Tar

McG said:


> But Russia doesn’t give-up until defeated. It freezes the conflict, learns a few lessons, heals, and then attacks again with more force and violence. The porcupine needs the eagle, the lion, other friends from the continental mainland, and even little beaver.



You mean like when the bear went over the mountain ?  

I predict Russia being bled to the negotiating table with unfavorable terms for them.  I also predict regime change or even civil war.  



McG said:


> What other comparable state on state war is happening somewhere else?



Is state on state some how worse than other types of conflict or strife  ?  

Or are you designing the parameters of your question to fit your desired and preconceived outcome ?


----------



## Halifax Tar

@KevinB @McG and others, we're both pretty entrenched in our positions.  And I don't expect either of us to budge.  

So can we move on ?  I tire going around this again and again.  

Time will tell how this ends up unfolding.


----------



## McG

Halifax Tar said:


> Is state on state some how worse than other types of conflict or strife ?


In the existing international system that supports our way of life, yes.  Significantly worse. One country eating another is supposed to be verboten. 
Allowing it to happen contributes to normalizing it. Normalizing it leads to more of it. More of it leads to the end of a way of life that we have known our whole lives.


----------



## KevinB

Halifax Tar said:


> I predict Russia being bled to the negotiating table with unfavorable terms for them.  I also predict regime change or even civil war.


Civil War in Russia is something no one can afford.  The odds of some Nuclear weapons going off are extremely high then. 

Only Russia can make a lasting regime change, we just need to be ready to economically, and socially support reformers. 




Halifax Tar said:


> Is state on state some how worse than other types of conflict or strife  ?


The scale, admittedly I’m an interventionist idealist, so I’m constantly disappointed when the West doesn’t act more forcefully in many CC situations.  I’m also a realist in that I know the West generally doesn’t know how to responsibly use it’s economic, and military might. We often make significant mistakes as we don’t understand cultural differences.


----------



## ueo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> There are plenty of things we can do that don't involve direct military confrontation.  I've already stated a few in this thread:
> 
> Guarantee freedom of navigation for commercial shipping is one of them. (Which nobody has even discussed in this thread).
> 
> I also think the present strategy is working so what's the imperative to change?
> 
> 
> 
> This isn't true though is it?  If Canadian voters believed in moral imperatives, we would have a well funded military that wouldn't have cut tail and run out of Southern Afghanistan in 2011, we wouldn't have been known in Yugo as the CANTBATs and we would have actually sent a force to support Romeo Dallaire in Rwanda.
> 
> The Canadian State is a realist actor and moral imperatives carry very little weight in actuality.
> 
> The only reason Canada gives two craps about Ukraine is because:
> 
> a)  we have a large Ukrainian diaspora; and
> b)  said diaspora is politically connected
> 
> Ukraine itself isn't worth 1 Canadian soldier's life.      If someone here wants to fight in Ukraine or support those that do, that's a personal choice.


Running thee risk of igniting a fire storm of indignation. Has anyone here considered the ethnic/relogious element, Ukr is predominantly white and christian is it not? Not going further in descriptors of other areas. Any thoughts?


----------



## Czech_pivo

Halifax Tar said:


> @KevinB @McG and others, we're both pretty entrenched in our positions.  And I don't expect either of us to budge.
> 
> So can we move on ?  I tire going around this again and again.
> 
> Time will tell how this ends up unfolding.


That time is quickly approaching.
If the Russkies can’t achieve what’ve they hope to achieve in part two of their strategy - repositioning their surviving troops/material from the Kiev theatre to the Donbass, taking Mariupol, all of the Donbass and possibly Kharkiv - in the next two weeks, then our time to join in the fight has come. 
Having this grind down to a static stalemate will mean complete ethnic cleansing in the captured territories.


----------



## KevinB

ueo said:


> Running thee risk of igniting a fire storm of indignation. Has anyone here considered the ethnic/relogious element, Ukr is predominantly white and christian is it not? Not going further in descriptors of other areas. Any thoughts?


Also a Western Style Democracy, a very relatable population, with a charismatic leader makes for a lovable underdog.
   Consider as well many of us grew up under the cloud of NATO V USSR conflict -- my first day of training in the CF started with "Your job is to kill Russians..."


----------



## Jarnhamar

Soldier35 said:


> Ukraine destroyed the world's largest AN-225 Mriya transport aircraft with its own hands. It happened because of the shelling of Antonov airport by Ukrainian troops.



Spreading false information on purpose.


----------



## Furniture

ueo said:


> Running thee risk of igniting a fire storm of indignation. Has anyone here considered the ethnic/relogious element, Ukr is predominantly white and christian is it not? Not going further in descriptors of other areas. Any thoughts?


I'm sure that is part of it on some level, but as @KevinB has pointed out, that isn't the significant reason. 

Ukraine is on the borders of the heart of the Western world, it matters to Westerners more than a country far away, surrounded by despots. Nobody cared about Afghanistan because it's far away, and apart from supporting some crazies had no real impact on our lives. Yemen, Rawanda, etc.. are the same, their potential to impact our lives in a significant way is low. Having a Pro-Russia Ukraine right beside Poland could very easily push us right back into Cold War 2.0, and nobody wants that.


----------



## Czech_pivo

ueo said:


> Running thee risk of igniting a fire storm of indignation. Has anyone here considered the ethnic/relogious element, Ukr is predominantly white and christian is it not? Not going further in descriptors of other areas. Any thoughts?


Name me other areas of the world that have had large scale conflicts (that the West did not get involved in), that have deep cultural and historical ties, to the surrounding countries, that are as deeply intertwined as Europe? Name me areas in Africa or Asia that have these sort of interconnecting ties? There are none.  Vast areas in Africa and Asia, precolonial times, were no where near defined as a ‘Nation State’ and thus don’t have these deep ties, these interconnected pulls/pushes.   The boundaries/borders of most African countries were artificially created by the Colonizers and cut directly across linguistic, tribal and religious groups.
When a Serb can sit back an talk about the Battle of Blackbirds from 1389 or a Pole about the Battle of Grunwald in 1410 as if it was yesterday and how it still defines them and their country, you have a lot of baggage to get through. We in the West have no clue on how to relate to that or understand how it defines a Nation State.
Remember, for the most part Europe is defined by Ethnicity, not by Citizenship - a person maybe a citizen of Germany but not a German, a citizen of Italy but not Italian, a citizen of the UK but not English, Scottish, Welsh or Irish. We do not have this here in NA.

EDIT: I think that some could/would argue that Quebec may fall into this Nation/State category.


----------



## Weinie

Czech_pivo said:


> Name me other areas of the world that have had large scale conflicts (that the West did not get involved in), that have deep cultural and historical ties, to the surrounding countries, that are as deeply intertwined as Europe? Name me areas in Africa or Asia that have these sort of interconnecting ties? There are none.  Vast areas in Africa and Asia, precolonial times, were no where near defined as a ‘Nation State’ and thus don’t have these deep ties, these interconnected pulls/pushes.   The boundaries/borders of most African countries were artificially created by the Colonizers and cut directly across linguistic, tribal and religious groups.
> When a Serb can sit back an talk about the Battle of Blackbirds from 1389 or a Pole about the Battle of Grunwald in 1410 as if it was yesterday and how it still defines them and their country, you have a lot of baggage to get through. We in the West have no clue on how to relate to that or understand how it defines a Nation State.
> Remember, for the most part Europe is defined by Ethnicity, not by Citizenship - a person maybe a citizen of Germany but not a German, a citizen of Italy but not Italian, a citizen of the UK but not English, Scottish, Welsh or Irish. *We do not have this here in NA.*


Ummmmmmm........ever been to Markham?

And ask me about the kid from Mississauga in American BDU's that I met in Bosnia, who came to fight for "his country."


----------



## Halifax Tar

McG said:


> In the existing international system that supports our way of life, yes.  Significantly worse. One country eating another is supposed to be verboten.
> Allowing it to happen contributes to normalizing it. Normalizing it leads to more of it. More of it leads to the end of a way of life that we have known our whole lives.



You're being hyperbolic.  

We are doing things.  Were supporting the Ukraine.  We trained the Ukrainians; and we have provided a line in the sand of what it would take for us (NATO) to throw down.  

Here is a couple links for you:

*Global conflict tracker: *








						Global Conflict Tracker l Council on Foreign Relations
					

Learn about the world's top hotspots with this interactive Global Conflict Tracker from the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations.




					www.cfr.org
				




*Genocide Watch: *




__





						Genocide Watch- Countries at Risk
					

Genocide Watch issues countries at risk reports for various countries around the world in danger of mass killing or genocide.




					www.genocidewatch.com
				





KevinB said:


> Civil War in Russia is something no one can afford.  The odds of some Nuclear weapons going off are extremely high then.
> 
> Only Russia can make a lasting regime change, we just need to be ready to economically, and socially support reformers.
> 
> The scale, admittedly I’m an interventionist idealist, so I’m constantly disappointed when the West doesn’t act more forcefully in many CC situations.  I’m also a realist in that I know the West generally doesn’t know how to responsibly use it’s economic, and military might. We often make significant mistakes as we don’t understand cultural differences.



Civil war - That's up to the Russian people.  If it happens we will have to field that ball.  We agree, only Russia can make lasting regime change in Russia.  Its up to their people. 

The west gets burned and chastised when it gets involved and gets the same treatment when it doesn't.  I think we're playing this well.   We've defiantly taken a side and drawn a line in the sand, which I think our population can get behind.  



Czech_pivo said:


> Name me other areas of the world that have had large scale conflicts (that the West did not get involved in), that have deep cultural and historical ties, to the surrounding countries, that are as deeply intertwined as Europe? Name me areas in Africa or Asia that have these sort of interconnecting ties? There are none.  Vast areas in Africa and Asia, precolonial times, were no where near defined as a ‘Nation State’ and thus don’t have these deep ties, these interconnected pulls/pushes.   The boundaries/borders of most African countries were artificially created by the Colonizers and cut directly across linguistic, tribal and religious groups.
> When a Serb can sit back an talk about the Battle of Blackbirds from 1389 or a Pole about the Battle of Grunwald in 1410 as if it was yesterday and how it still defines them and their country, you have a lot of baggage to get through. We in the West have no clue on how to relate to that or understand how it defines a Nation State.
> Remember, for the most part Europe is defined by Ethnicity, not by Citizenship - a person maybe a citizen of Germany but not a German, a citizen of Italy but not Italian, a citizen of the UK but not English, Scottish, Welsh or Irish. We do not have this here in NA.



Your statement makes it seem like our Euro-ethnic immigrants have way too much baggage from long since passed wars.  

We're doing the right thing right now.  You can disagree with it if you'd like.  But this is the correct path.  Regional/limited conflict with continuing economic and diplomatic work.  

Gah, I want off this ride.  

I will not reply anymore
I will not reply anymore 
I will not reply anymore


----------



## Czech_pivo

Halifax Tar said:


> You're being hyperbolic.
> 
> We are doing things.  Were supporting the Ukraine.  We trained the Ukrainians; and we have provided a line in the sand of what it would take for us (NATO) to throw down.
> 
> Here is a couple links for you:
> 
> *Global conflict tracker: *
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Global Conflict Tracker l Council on Foreign Relations
> 
> 
> Learn about the world's top hotspots with this interactive Global Conflict Tracker from the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cfr.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Genocide Watch: *
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Genocide Watch- Countries at Risk
> 
> 
> Genocide Watch issues countries at risk reports for various countries around the world in danger of mass killing or genocide.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.genocidewatch.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Civil war - That's up to the Russian people.  If it happens we will have to field that ball.  We agree, only Russia can make lasting regime change in Russia.  Its up to their people.
> 
> The west gets burned and chastised when it gets involved and gets the same treatment when it doesn't.  I think we're playing this well.   We've defiantly taken a side and drawn a line in the sand, which I think our population can get behind.
> 
> 
> 
> Your statement makes it seem like our Euro-ethnic immigrants have way too much baggage from long since passed wars.
> 
> We're doing the right thing right now.  You can disagree with it if you'd like.  But this is the correct path.  Regional/limited conflict with continuing economic and diplomatic work.
> 
> Gah, I want off this ride.
> 
> I will not reply anymore
> I will not reply anymore
> I will not reply anymore


My Dad's family in the past, his father and so on back, were all proud Orangeman and would march on the 'Glorious 12th' of July every year to remember the Battle of the Boyne from 1690 and they did this here in Canada well into the 1950s. 
I went to high school with a couple of kids who were Croatian descent, born and raised here, but went off to fight for Croatia, a place that neither of them had ever been to, when the Civil War started in 1991/92 thanks to the baggage that their parents brought with them.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Weinie said:


> Ummmmmmm........ever been to Markham?
> 
> And ask me about the kid from Mississauga in American BDU's that I met in Bosnia, who came to fight for "his country."


You're missing my point - there is no 'ethnicity' called 'Canadian' or 'American' - we have a state called Canada and a state called America.


----------



## Weinie

Czech_pivo said:


> You're missing my point - there is no 'ethnicity' called 'Canadian' or 'American' - *we have a state called Canada* and a state called America.


Our current PM: Enters the chat


----------



## Czech_pivo

Weinie said:


> Our current PM: Enters the chat


He's a bloody fool if he truly thinks this.


----------



## McG

Halifax Tar said:


> *Global conflict tracker: *
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Global Conflict Tracker l Council on Foreign Relations
> 
> 
> Learn about the world's top hotspots with this interactive Global Conflict Tracker from the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cfr.org


Yes, this supports what I am saying.  Lots of intrastate wars around the world, but only two interstate wars. You seem to keep arguing against R2P despite the fact that I am not arguing for R2P (though a fairly solid argument could also be made on the R2P front even in contrast to the many abhorrent intrastate conflicts in other parts of the world).

Nagorno-Karabakh was contained until Russia distracted itself with the Ukraine war, and this interstate flash seems already to be cooling. Russia's Ukraine invasion on the other hand is not slowing down, and Russia has the power and depth to do this again to Ukraine and other neighbours. If Russia can conclude this war with any veneer of victory, then similar future use of force becomes easier to justify for Russia and for every other hostile autocracy around the world.


----------



## Weinie

Czech_pivo said:


> *He's a bloody fool* if he truly thinks this.


Your words, as contrasted to his.

The Canada experiment: is this the world's first 'postnational' country? | Charles Foran


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> Footage of the combat departure of Ka-52 attack helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces was published by the Ministry of Defense. The combat mission was to find and destroy the camouflaged positions of the Ukrainian army. The pilots successfully completed the task by using guided and unguided S-8 missiles from low altitudes.



Well @Soldier35, it looks like the Russian forces finally decided to stop being incompetent, and took a lesson from the expertise and bravery of the Ukraine forces, as demonstrated by the well coordinated attack on the Belgorad oil storage.

That said, it seems the Russian forces have lost their will and are running away from the Ukrainian babushkas in Kyiv throwing Molotov cocktails at the disorganized RUS forces.  Maybe the slightly more capable DPR forces can help protect the Guards and VDV forces who received bloody noses in Kyiv?


----------



## OldSolduer

Czech_pivo said:


> You're missing my point - there is no 'ethnicity' called 'Canadian' or 'American' - we have a state called Canada and a state called America.


You make a good point. 

As an example our soccer team made it to the World Cup. How many Canadians will be cheering for them? Conversely how many Canadians will be cheering for Team Italia? Or Team Germany? 

Food for thought.


----------



## KevinB

OldSolduer said:


> You make a good point.
> 
> As an example our soccer team made it to the World Cup. How many Canadians will be cheering for them? Conversely how many Canadians will be cheering for Team Italia? Or Team Germany?
> 
> Food for thought.


Dude, people want to pick winners...

   Compare that to Hockey, there is a vast change in the mentality of the fans.


----------



## tomydoom

OldSolduer said:


> You make a good point.
> 
> As an example our soccer team made it to the World Cup. How many Canadians will be cheering for them? Conversely how many Canadians will be cheering for Team Italia? Or Team Germany?
> 
> Food for thought.


As a child of a Dutch immigrant to Canada, living in Ireland. My cheering priority goes Canada, Netherlands and then Ireland. 

On the more serious issue about ethno-nationalism. As a Canadian living in Europe, I find the ethinc component, distasteful.  My daughter, attending university in the Netherlands, receives privileges due to her last name, that other international students do not.  While we appreciate that this makes her life easier, it does go against my Canadian ideals.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Jarnhamar said:


> Spreading false information on purpose.


Not to mention old news ... #StayCurrentInfoMachine


OldSolduer said:


> ... our soccer team made it to the World Cup. How many Canadians will be cheering for them? Conversely how many Canadians will be cheering for Team Italia? Or Team Germany? ...


If it's any comfort, a lot fewer this year for Team Italia after losing to Macedonia 

Latest tote board from UKR mil int ...

... and a quick Bucha round up (AFP wire service via RUS independent media) 








						What We Know About What Happened in Ukraine’s Bucha - The Moscow Times
					

Ukraine on Sunday accused the Russian army of having committed a "massacre" in Bucha, a town northwest of Kyiv recently retaken by Ukrainian troops, where the bodies of civilians were found in the streets.  This is what we know at this stage about what happened in Bucha.




					www.themoscowtimes.com


----------



## Halifax Tar

One can hope...


----------



## Czech_pivo

Weinie said:


> Your words, as contrasted to his.
> 
> The Canada experiment: is this the world's first 'postnational' country? | Charles Foran


Lot's and lot's of catchy phase's and feel good sentences, but zero factual substance. It kind of like Trudeau declaring that 'Canada's back baby!' and then nothing is there to back it up.  Remember the phase from about 15-20yrs ago, 'Cool Britannia', where has that gone?


----------



## Czech_pivo

OldSolduer said:


> You make a good point.
> 
> As an example our soccer team made it to the World Cup. How many Canadians will be cheering for them? Conversely how many Canadians will be cheering for Team Italia? Or Team Germany?
> 
> Food for thought.


Well, we'll get all those Italian-Canadians cheering for 'us' this time since Italy failed again(!) to make the World Cup, but I get your point for certain.


----------



## Weinie

Czech_pivo said:


> Lot's and lot's of catchy phase's and feel good sentences, but zero factual substance. It kind of like Trudeau declaring that 'Canada's back baby!' and then nothing is there to back it up.  Remember the phase from about 15-20yrs ago, *'Cool Britannia'*, where has that gone?


It very well may be "Cold Europe" in the next few years.


----------



## Remius

OldSolduer said:


> You make a good point.
> 
> As an example our soccer team made it to the World Cup. How many Canadians will be cheering for them? Conversely how many Canadians will be cheering for Team Italia? Or Team Germany?
> 
> Food for thought.


Given that our soccer team hasn’t made it to the World Cup since before the war and last century I don’t blame them if they remain loyal to whatever team they cheered for.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510966845872001024


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510966845872001024


The garrison already did a feet don't fail me now...


----------



## KevinB

President Zelensky visits Bucha

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510974076105498630


----------



## Czech_pivo

tomydoom said:


> As a child of a Dutch immigrant to Canada, living in Ireland. My cheering priority goes Canada, Netherlands and then Ireland.
> 
> On the more serious issue about ethno-nationalism. As a Canadian living in Europe, I find the ethinc component, distasteful.  My daughter, attending university in the Netherlands, receives privileges due to her last name, that other international students do not.  While we appreciate that this makes her life easier, it does go against my Canadian ideals.


I went to Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam (along with Katholieke Universiteit te Leuven in Belgium) many many years ago. I loved my time at Erasmus. 
In another time I did my thesis on 'How Nationalism Affects Government Policy Implementation in Canada and Belgium.'  I looked into the 'English/French' divide in Canada and the 'Flemish/Walloon' divide in Belgium and how it directly affected policy in both countries.


----------



## KevinB

Russian Mass Grave doctrine 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510169194465271812


----------



## KevinB

More mass graves

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510976755796004864


----------



## Good2Golf

tomydoom said:


> On the more serious issue about ethno-nationalism. As a Canadian living in Europe, I find the ethinc component, distasteful. My daughter, attending university in the Netherlands, receives privileges due to her last name, that other international students do not. While we appreciate that this makes her life easier, it does go against my Canadian ideals.


Honest question, is your distaste of the underlying privilege that Dutch society gives your daughter?  Is it because of just her last name? (I’m assuming Dutch)  Or because they know of her Canadian-Dutch background?  Distasteful is a strong word, so is it something that is serious enough to be explicitly addressed, either by you, or your daughter?  (Assuming you were addressing distaste of the Dutch defaulting a privilege to your daughter)

I ask, as my wife is 1st Gen Canadian of Dutch descent, and any time we’ve visited her family, there is a clear memory and appreciation of anything Canadian from WWII.  That raised a notch with me when they heard of my grandfather’s part in their liberation, and they took me to Groesbeek Cemetery and we saw members of his Regiment.  I took their outward demonstrations of preference/respect to Canadians more as appreciation of past than an underlaying white-privilege (low-grade racist) sentiment. 

Regards
G2G


----------



## tomydoom

Good2Golf said:


> Honest question, is your distaste of the underlying privilege that Dutch society gives your daughter?  Is it because of just her last name? (I’m assuming Dutch)  Or because they know of her Canadian-Dutch background?  Distasteful is a strong word, so is it something that is serious enough to be explicitly addressed, either by you, or your daughter?  (Assuming you were addressing distaste of the Dutch defaulting a privilege to your daughter)
> 
> I ask, as my wife is 1st Gen Canadian of Dutch descent, and any time we’ve visited her family, there is a clear memory and appreciation of anything Canadian from WWII.  That raised a notch with me when they heard of my grandfather’s part in their liberation, and they took me to Groesbeek Cemetery and we saw members of his Regiment.  I took their outward demonstrations of preference/respect to Canadians more as appreciation of past than an underlaying white-privilege (low-grade racist) sentiment.
> 
> Regards
> G2G


To clarify, the distaste would be more at what I witness in Ireland first hand, and have seen elsewhere in Europe at a distance.  As someone raised in a "non-ethnic" nation;  ethno-nationalism rubs me the wrong way.  In Ireland, I benefit from accent privilege, the way I have seen people with eastern European accents treated at times, is deplorable.  In the north you see hostility towards people with republic accents, and I deploy my Canadian accent quickly, to offset the republic number plates on my car.  Because of "reasons" there is still very much an underlying sentiment here of Ireland for the Irish and saying overtly racist things is still largely tolerated.  As example, a student making comments about my daughter who happens to be half Asian  "eating dog" in earshot of teachers, drew no rebuke in school here. 

Regarding my daughter, she is treated at a returned prodigal offspring, who's ancestors made the poor choice to leave.  In Groningen, where my daughter attends University,  it is common to specify "no international students or Dutch only" in ads to rent accommodations.   My daughter was given a free pass on these, as "you're Dutch, you're not really an international student".  Another example, at the university registrar, the Irish student in front of her in queue was sent away to get his Irish secondary school results printed elsewhere.  For my daughter, the same person, printed the exact same documentation for her.    So it actually is beyond low grade "white privilege", especially as my daughter is half Asian. 

I don't think the above is unique to Ireland or the Netherland, I think it's ubiquitous to most non-immigrant nation.  To be clear, I love living in Europe and have no immediate plans to move back to Canada, but the place is somewhat more racist then Canada.

I agree with your point, when it comes to Dutch people honouring Canadian veterans, my NDI75 card got me into the Cavalry Museum in Amersfoort for free and the number of small memorials to Canadians is humbling.  My non-Dutch grandfather served in the Fort Gary Horse and there is a plaque on a house in Groningen to the first member of that regiment, that died for their freedom.   I just noticed this modest memorial on the walk from visiting my daughter to my hotel.  Another time I was in Gorssel for an uncles funeral and stumbled across a plaque to the PPCLI as the first allied unit to cross the river Ijssel.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Good2Golf said:


> Honest question, is your distaste of the underlying privilege that Dutch society gives your daughter?  Is it because of just her last name? (I’m assuming Dutch)  Or because they know of her Canadian-Dutch background?  Distasteful is a strong word, so is it something that is serious enough to be explicitly addressed, either by you, or your daughter?  (Assuming you were addressing distaste of the Dutch defaulting a privilege to your daughter)
> 
> I ask, as my wife is 1st Gen Canadian of Dutch descent, and any time we’ve visited her family, there is a clear memory and appreciation of anything Canadian from WWII.  That raised a notch with me when they heard of my grandfather’s part in their liberation, and they took me to Groesbeek Cemetery and we saw members of his Regiment.  I took their outward demonstrations of preference/respect to Canadians more as appreciation of past than an underlaying white-privilege (low-grade racist) sentiment.
> 
> Regards
> G2G


Here's a story to back up my statement earlier about being a citizen of a country in most places in Europe vs being ethnically from most places in Europe.  It occured when I was a student in Belgium.

I lived in the 'Flemish' (Dutch) speaking area of Belgium, in the city that is today known as 'Leuven' but prior to 1968 was known around the world as 'Louvain' (the French spelling of the city).  I shared a house with 3 other Belgians, all Flemish speaking.  One of them as a kid who was Indonesian descent (a former Dutch colony) but adopted by Flemish-speaking Belgians and brought there under the age of 2.  To us, here in Canada, that kid would be 100% Canadian in every way; accent, mannerisms, socially, culturally, everything.  I don't think this kid had any ties at all to where he was born.  One day there was a knock on the door and since my room was closest to the front door, I left my room and answered it.  There was 2 Belgians at the door, maybe in their mid/late 30's and they had a bunch of pamphlets that they were handing out.  They started talking in Flemish, which I knew little and tried giving me these papers.  I had no real clue what they were so I called over this kid, (for the life of me I can't remember his name, but I think it was Raf) to ask him what they wanted and what they kept trying to give me.  Once he came over and they saw him they started yelling, outright yelling at him in Flemish and he was visibly shaken by this and left the hallway.  Another of the Belgian housemates came down the stairs from the noise and start yelling back at them and slammed the door in their face as I stood there in shock.  I asked her what the hell just happened and she said that they were 'Vlaams Blok' and a bunch of racist bastards (her words) and anti-immigrant.  The kid, Raf, was upset because they started calling him all sorts of racist names and yelling at him to 'go back where he came from'. 

The point that I'm trying to make (long winded), is that these Vlaams Blok made the assumption that I was Flemish by the way that I looked (white, tall, fair skinned) and that I 'belonged' to the Flemish ethnic race, while my housemate was the immigrant and didn't belong because of the way he looked.  They assumed that because of him being ethnically Indonesian that he was not a Belgian.  This occurs daily/routinely throughout Europe and I'm sure here in Canada as well.  









						Vlaams Blok - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




I lived in Belgium/Holland in 93/94.  Here is a snippet from the wiki page on the Vlaams Blok - _"In 1992, the party established its 70-point plan, which included measures to stop all immigration, return most immigrants to their native countries by force, and legally discriminate against residing migrants in respect of markets such as labour, housing and education."_


----------



## Czech_pivo

tomydoom said:


> To clarify, the distaste would be more at what I witness in Ireland first hand, and have seen elsewhere in Europe at a distance.  As someone raised in a "non-ethnic" nation;  ethno-nationalism rubs me the wrong way.  In Ireland, I benefit from accent privilege, the way I have seen people with eastern European accents treated at times, is deplorable.  In the north you see hostility towards people with republic accents, and I deploy my Canadian accent quickly, to offset the republic number plates on my car.  Because of "reasons" there is still very much an underlying sentiment here of Ireland for the Irish and saying overtly racist things is still largely tolerated.  As example, a student making comments about my daughter who happens to be half Asian  "eating dog" in earshot of teachers, drew no rebuke in school here.
> 
> Regarding my daughter, she is treated at a returned prodigal offspring, who's ancestors made the poor choice to leave.  In Groningen, where my daughter attends University,  it is common to specify "no international students or Dutch only" in ads to rent accommodations.   My daughter was given a free pass on these, as "you're Dutch, you're not really an international student".  Another example, at the university registrar, the Irish student in front of her in queue was sent away to get his Irish secondary school results printed elsewhere.  For my daughter, the same person, printed the exact same documentation for her.    So it actually is beyond low grade "white privilege", especially as my daughter is half Asian.
> 
> I don't think the above is unique to Ireland or the Netherland, I think it's ubiquitous to most non-immigrant nation.  To be clear, I love living in Europe and have no immediate plans to move back to Canada, but the place is somewhat more racist then Canada.
> 
> I agree with your point, when it comes to Dutch people honouring Canadian veterans, my NDI75 card got me into the Cavalry Museum in Amersfoort for free and the number of small memorials to Canadians is humbling.  My non-Dutch grandfather served in the Fort Gary Horse and there is a plaque on a house in Groningen to the first member of that regiment, that died for their freedom.   I just noticed this modest memorial on the walk from visiting my daughter to my hotel.  Another time I was in Gorssel for an uncles funeral and stumbled across a plaque to the PPCLI as the first allied unit to cross the river Ijssel.


Reminds me of the time I almost got my ass kicked when I was living in Belgium in '93 when I walked into an Irish pub (Tir na Og) in Leuven wearing a 'Queen's University' baseball cap......I literally had no clue that there was a 'Queen's University' in Belfast and it was virtually all Protestant..... I quickly played the dumb Canadian card and managed to get out of there alive, but it was close.


----------



## Good2Golf

@tomydoom and @Czech_pivo, tracking and thanks for the insight.  I guess there are elements to that which I saw as well visiting my wife’s family…there could be some conversations that glanced along the edge of the Boers’ feeling in South Africa…which I guess speaks to elements of beliefs of an emigrant vice immigrant nation.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> The garrison already did a feet don't fail me now...



I heard that a VDV Brigade had been reassigned to the Ukrainian effort but the Garrison?


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> I heard that a VDV Brigade had been reassigned to the Ukrainian effort but the Garrison?


Multi IL-76 shuttle late last week


----------



## tomydoom

Czech_pivo said:


> Reminds me of the time I almost got my ass kicked when I was living in Belgium in '93 when I walked into an Irish pub (Tir na Og) in Leuven wearing a 'Queen's University' baseball cap......I literally had no clue that there was a 'Queen's University' in Belfast and it was virtually all Protestant..... I quickly played the dumb Canadian card and managed to get out of there alive, but it was close.


It’s why I’m glad I went to Western.


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> Multi IL-76 shuttle late last week


But interestingly not even close to the scale of 56 C-17s a day for two weeks that the USAF put on to deploy two Corps.  That kind of capability alone should give saner competent military planners in Russia cause for thought.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Czech_pivo said:


> You're missing my point - there is no 'ethnicity' called 'Canadian' or 'American' - we have a state called Canada and a state called America.


There is a Canadian/American identity, it's just that many that come to this part of the World haven't shed their old identity and it still holds primacy.

I tell people that meet me that I am Canadian even though I have a German Last Name.  This is because my family has been in North America since the 1650's.  The Canadian side of my family came to Canada after the American Revolution because we were Loyalists to the British Monarchy.  

We've put that animosity aside and are friends with our American relatives again.  I will also say that my American relatives are staunchly American.  They wrap themselves in American patriotism and carry on the Military tradition to back it up.  

I have no connections to the old Country, the only connection is my last name and even then, it's had the spelling changed a few times so it's a pretty weak connection.  

The Quebecois, Acadiens, Brayons, Pilgrims, etc are cut from the same cloth.  Call it "pioneering" if you will.  Many came here to get away from the stupidity in the "Old Country" but it seems those coming lately want to bring the Old Country stupidity over with them.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Weinie said:


> Your words, as contrasted to his.
> 
> The Canada experiment: is this the world's first 'postnational' country? | Charles Foran


And the rest of his words for some context :


> ‘‘There is no core identity, no mainstream in Canada,’’ he claimed. ‘‘There are* shared values — openness, respect, compassion, willingness to work hard, to be there for each other, to search for equality and justice*. Those qualities are what make us the first postnational state.’’


Pretty subversive stuff there in yellow ...

I don't think Canadian identity is as regionalized as, say, Italy, but I'd be hard pressed to say folks from Newfoundland, Toronto, B.C. and Alberta are "identically" Canadian.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

@Czech_pivo  you also act as if there has never been fighting here.  I literally grew up in a Town that is named after a British Colonel whose claim to fame was killing Acadiens, chasing others in to the woods and burning their houses and settlements down.

Did you know the French in certain provinces had no right to an education in their own language up until the 1970s in some cases.  In New Brunswick they forced French to use English textbooks in an attempt to assimilate them.

There is plenty of violence to go around here as well, it's just we sugar coat everything now and nobody teaches or studies History here 😉


----------



## Kirkhill

Czech_pivo said:


> I went to Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam (along with Katholieke Universiteit te Leuven in Belgium) many many years ago. I loved my time at Erasmus.
> In another time I did my thesis on 'How Nationalism Affects Government Policy Implementation in Canada and Belgium.'  I looked into the 'English/French' divide in Canada and the 'Flemish/Walloon' divide in Belgium and how it directly affected policy in both countries.


I find maps like these a lot more predictive than any of the modern maps.  Both Germany and Italy are younger than Canada.  That strong sense of the local is millenia in the making.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> @Czech_pivo  you also act as if there has never been fighting here.  I literally grew up in a Town that is named after a British Colonel whose claim to fame was killing Acadiens, chasing others in to the woods and burning their houses and settlements down.
> 
> Did you know the French in certain provinces had no right to an education in their own language up until the 1970s in some cases.  In New Brunswick they forced French to use English textbooks in an attempt to assimilate them.
> 
> There is plenty of violence to go around here as well, it's just we sugar coat everything now and nobody teaches or studies History here 😉


Lot's of sugar coating, for certain.


----------



## Remius

Humphrey Bogart said:


> @Czech_pivo  you also act as if there has never been fighting here.  I literally grew up in a Town that is named after a British Colonel whose claim to fame was killing Acadiens, chasing others in to the woods and burning their houses and settlements down.
> 
> Did you know the French in certain provinces had no right to an education in their own language up until the 1970s in some cases.  In New Brunswick they forced French to use English textbooks in an attempt to assimilate them.
> 
> There is plenty of violence to go around here as well, it's just we sugar coat everything now and nobody teaches or studies History here 😉


There is a French Canadian identity built around those events.  My father had to go to go to private school in order to study in French.  And no his family was not rich by any means. My grandparents never did high school as a result.  A lot of opposition from Francophones to participating in WW1 had to do with the laws Ontario put in place to limit French education.   

Even in my high school days the boards were split on religious sides but English Catholics had one more seat to ensure they always got the vote.  It’s changed now but the effects of that stuff still lingers in the cultural mindset.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Sooner or later the bully will be at someone else's gate



There aren't many gates in Europe for the bully to be at unless he wants to risk an Article 5.  If Sweden and Finland act now, fewer.  If European nations act on the realization that they will be more secure if they are more independent of Russian resources, the bully will have less leverage.

There is more pushback now than in 2014.  That isn't a trend that can be described as "losing the international order".

If Russians insist on being unreasonably paranoid about their borders and their access to the oceans of the world, no-one can help them.  All they have to do is stop being dicks.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Anyone reading the news about Poland and the Baltics completing shutting their land borders to traffic from Kaliningrad and Belarus?  Fairly significant news.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Donbas Conscripts Given Guns From 1800s and Forced to Drink Water From Ponds Infested With Dead Frogs
					

Maximilian Clarke/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty ImagesSome conscripts to the Russian war effort from the Donbas region are turning on their commanders and refusing to fight on, after being handed antiquated rifles designed in the 19th century, and forced to drink from ponds littered with...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Anyone reading the news about Poland and the Baltics completing shutting their land borders to traffic from Kaliningrad and Belarus?  Fairly significant news.


Significant only that it hadn’t been done sooner…


----------



## Good2Golf

Brad Sallows said:


> If Russians insist on being unreasonably paranoid about their borders and their access to the oceans of the world, no-one can help them. All they have to do is stop being dicks.



The Scorpion gonna keep ‘scorpioning.’


----------



## FJAG

Humphrey Bogart said:


> The Quebecois, Acadiens, Brayons, Pilgrims, etc are cut from the same cloth. Call it "pioneering" if you will. Many came here to get away from the stupidity in the "Old Country" but it seems those coming lately want to bring the Old Country stupidity over with them.


My reading of the colonization of America leads me to see, broadly speaking, two types of colonizers: the one were businessmen seeking to exploit the natural resources of the Americas and were bringing both staff and labourers with them to do so; the second were those escaping persecution or perceived persecution within their homelands mostly because they had extremist religious beliefs or ones radically divergent of that of the mainstream in their societies.

Their legacies are still with us in that there is a more freewheeling and cutthroat entrepreneurial spirit here as well as a core of those who have a less liberal view of society than Western Europeans.

Stupidity comes in many forms. "Old Country" Europeans do not have a monopoly on it. Every society over time divides into "us" and "them" tribes at many levels for a variety of reasons.

🍻


----------



## Furniture

I think the editors at The Line nailed it once again. 

Special Edition Dispatch: Bear witness to Ukraine's suffering, and remember the apologists


----------



## Remius

Furniture said:


> I think the editors at The Line nailed it once again.
> 
> Special Edition Dispatch: Bear witness to Ukraine's suffering, and remember the apologists


Pulled no punches.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Yeah, about the "we were already gone when those people got killed" narrative from the RUS info-machine ...








						Satellite images show bodies lay in Bucha for weeks, despite Russian claims.
					

The images rebut Russia’s claim that the killing of civilians in Bucha, near Kyiv, took place after its soldiers had left town.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## KevinB

Here are the latest developments in the war in Ukraine.
					






					www.nytimes.com
				




The call to hold Russia accountable for apparent atrocities in Ukraine was intensifying on Monday after Russian forces retreating from a Kyiv suburb left behind dead civilians lining the streets — some with their hands bound, some with gunshot wounds to the head.

Amid growing global horror at what President Biden called a war crime in the suburb of Bucha, some European leaders were demanding tougher sanctions against Russia, including a total ban on Russian fuel imports. While European Union nations were sharply divided over taking such a drastic step, Mr. Biden told reporters in Washington that the United States would be adding “more sanctions” against Moscow. He didn’t provide further details.

The outrage in Washington and in some European capitals was met with broad denials from the Kremlin, and accusations that the West had fabricated evidence of violence against civilians. But satellite imagery analyzed by The New York Times refuted claims by Russia that the killing of civilians in Bucha occurred after its soldiers had left the town. Satellite images showed that at least 11 bodies had been on Yablonska Street in Bucha since March 11, when Russia, by its own account, occupied the town.
Russia, meanwhile, continued to bombard key southern cities including Mykolaiv and the besieged city of Mariupol. The International Committee of the Red Cross said that an evacuation convoy carrying desperately needed humanitarian aid had been unable to reach the city on Monday, the fourth day of trying.
Here are some other major developments:

The Russian general prosecutor’s office warned that anyone describing the Bucha atrocities as Russia’s doing could face prosecution. It claimed, without offering proof, that the accusations of Russian killings of civilians were a “cynical lie” perpetrated by Ukraine and the West.
Germany said it was expelling 40 Russian diplomats over the actions of Russian forces in Bucha. “The images from Bucha are evidence of incredible brutality on the part of the Russian leadership and those who follow its propaganda,” Annalena Baerbock, Germany’s foreign minister, said.
In a speech released late Sunday, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, directly addressed the Russian people about the reports of civilian deaths. “I want every mother of every Russian soldier to see the bodies of the killed people in Bucha, in Irpin, in Hostomel,” he said in Russian. “What did they do? Why were they killed?”


----------



## KevinB

Meanwhile Russian disinformation campaign blunder #457
  When you claim you are removing mines for humanitarian reasons and you put your cameraman out in front no one is going to believe you...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511013852766474242


----------



## KevinB

Looks like the siege of Mariupol is ending

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511059121067511814


----------



## KevinB

The face of war

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511008603964071937


----------



## KevinB

Is it wrong that I think this is a great Tomahawk target?

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511039300011442188


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510892851915284482


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511045864369922060

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510741135165210630


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511062310869159944


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Here are the latest developments in the war in Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The call to hold Russia accountable for apparent atrocities in Ukraine was intensifying on Monday after Russian forces retreating from a Kyiv suburb left behind dead civilians lining the streets — some with their hands bound, some with gunshot wounds to the head.
> 
> Amid growing global horror at what President Biden called a war crime in the suburb of Bucha, some European leaders were demanding tougher sanctions against Russia, including a total ban on Russian fuel imports. While European Union nations were sharply divided over taking such a drastic step, Mr. Biden told reporters in Washington that the United States would be adding “more sanctions” against Moscow. He didn’t provide further details.
> 
> The outrage in Washington and in some European capitals was met with broad denials from the Kremlin, and accusations that the West had fabricated evidence of violence against civilians. But satellite imagery analyzed by The New York Times refuted claims by Russia that the killing of civilians in Bucha occurred after its soldiers had left the town. Satellite images showed that at least 11 bodies had been on Yablonska Street in Bucha since March 11, when Russia, by its own account, occupied the town.
> Russia, meanwhile, continued to bombard key southern cities including Mykolaiv and the besieged city of Mariupol. The International Committee of the Red Cross said that an evacuation convoy carrying desperately needed humanitarian aid had been unable to reach the city on Monday, the fourth day of trying.
> Here are some other major developments:
> 
> The Russian general prosecutor’s office warned that anyone describing the Bucha atrocities as Russia’s doing could face prosecution. It claimed, without offering proof, that the accusations of Russian killings of civilians were a “cynical lie” perpetrated by Ukraine and the West.
> Germany said it was expelling 40 Russian diplomats over the actions of Russian forces in Bucha. “The images from Bucha are evidence of incredible brutality on the part of the Russian leadership and those who follow its propaganda,” Annalena Baerbock, Germany’s foreign minister, said.
> In a speech released late Sunday, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, directly addressed the Russian people about the reports of civilian deaths. “I want every mother of every Russian soldier to see the bodies of the killed people in Bucha, in Irpin, in Hostomel,” he said in Russian. “What did they do? Why were they killed?”


_*the accusations of Russian killings of civilians were a “cynical lie”*_ - One word - Katyn


----------



## Prairie canuck

Halifax Tar said:


> Your analogy is too simple.
> 
> We're on a good course.  The UKR seems to be winning.  We've (NATO) fed them weapons and stores, and we've trained their forces.
> 
> When Russia attacks NATO then we respond.


Well of course it's too simple. However, that doesn't mean it doesn't hold merit. 

Handing Russia a major defeat is paramount if a regime change is to happen and that won't happen with NATO shaking its finger and giving Ukraine hand held weapons.

Ukraine has put up a valiant fight but their mechanized divisions have been whittled down considerably. Putin is now concentrating all his ground forces in the east and south and continues to destroy the whole country's infrastructure with it's air assets and long range missiles. Ukraine will have to concentrate its remaining assets to face the threat making it easier for Russia to target them. Status quo by NATO means Ukraine will eventually be overwhelmed and defeated. 

NATO must send Zelenskiy what he's been asking for; artillery, planes, tanks, AA, and missiles. Not just old soviet era leftovers either, it must be current NATO stock and technology. Send a lot and do it today. (ya, ya, I know training blah blah. I'm pretty confident the Ukrainians will catch on pretty quick.)

Ukrainians will never forget what Russia has done but they'll also remember how NATO and the EU stood by and gave them no more than the minimum when they asked for help.


----------



## McG

Satellite images show bodies lay in Bucha for weeks, despite Russian claims.
					

The images rebut Russia’s claim that the killing of civilians in Bucha, near Kyiv, took place after its soldiers had left town.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## KevinB

I tend to think that Bucha and other mass grave sites will be the start that broke the Camels Back for NATO - or at least some NATO countries (Poland, US, UK etc).

 The mood in the US Beltway changed significantly.


----------



## Eaglelord17

Good2Golf said:


> Well @Soldier35, it looks like the Russian forces finally decided to stop being incompetent, and took a lesson from the expertise and bravery of the Ukraine forces, as demonstrated by the well coordinated attack on the Belgorad oil storage.
> 
> That said, it seems the Russian forces have lost their will and are running away from the Ukrainian babushkas in Kyiv throwing Molotov cocktails at the disorganized RUS forces.  Maybe the slightly more capable DPR forces can help protect the Guards and VDV forces who received bloody noses in Kyiv?


That ‘attack’ was a Russian false flag. Ukraine didn’t attack any storage facility in Russia. If you need proof Soldier35 said Ukraine did it, which as it is a Kremlin bot is only going to publish falsehoods which benefit Russia.


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511081937049333763


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Eaglelord17 said:


> That ‘attack’ was a Russian false flag. Ukraine didn’t attack any storage facility in Russia. If you need proof Soldier35 said Ukraine did it, which as it is a Kremlin bot is only going to publish falsehoods which benefit Russia.


Hence the value of leaving it for all to see.

Remember, this isn't a Politics forum, this is a Military forum whose membership, one would hope, is concerned about Military Affairs.  We are in the business of warfighting, leave the politicking to the politicians.

It's important to watch and even study enemy misinformation as it can still tell us things we might otherwise not have known and we can discern intentions, tactics, messaging, etc.

I think everyone on this forum is smart enough to see through this for what it is, without becoming emotional about it.


----------



## Weinie

McG said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511081937049333763


To be fair, Glavin is a bit to the right of most of us.


----------



## KevinB

Weinie said:


> To be fair, Glavin is a bit to the right of most of us.


I thought he was left leaning myself


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Hence the value of leaving it for all to see.
> 
> Remember, this isn't a Politics forum, this is a Military forum whose membership, one would hope, is concerned about Military Affairs.  We are in the business of warfighting, leave the politicking to the politicians.
> 
> It's important to watch and even study enemy misinformation as it can still tell us things we might otherwise not have known and we can discern intentions, tactics, messaging, etc.
> 
> I think everyone on this forum is smart enough to see through this for what it is, without becoming emotional about it.


I still wouldn’t mind a few hours with him with a belt sander and a blow torch. I promise I’ll only use Russian humanitarian methods too. 
  Just saying.


----------



## Weinie

KevinB said:


> I thought he was left leaning myself


Everyone, other than Attila, Genghis Khan, and Vlad the Impaler, is likely left to you. But I still like you.


----------



## GK .Dundas

After a fair bit of contemplation, I have to the conclusion that we are dealing with an 18th century army using 21at century weapons. An out of control 18 th  century army. 
Come to think of it perhaps the Scottish -English border reivers may well be a better description. 
Regardless of how it's described it's unacceptable.


----------



## KevinB

GK .Dundas said:


> After a fair bit of contemplation, I have to the conclusion that we are dealing with an 18th century army using 21at century weapons. An out of control 18 th  century army.
> Come to think of it perhaps the Scottish -English border reivers may well be a better description.
> Regardless of how it's described it's unacceptable.


To be fair most of the Russian kit is mid 20th century…


----------



## Kat Stevens

GK .Dundas said:


> After a fair bit of contemplation, I have to the conclusion that we are dealing with an 18th century army using 21at century weapons. An out of control 18 th  century army.
> Come to think of it perhaps the Scottish -English border reivers may well be a better description.
> Regardless of how it's described it's unacceptable.


The Borderers were ruthlessly efficient. If there were Humes, Thompsons, or Routledges running that show, it would be over already.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> It's important to watch and even study enemy misinformation as it can still tell us things we might otherwise not have known and we can discern intentions, tactics, messaging, etc.


Just like MSM - nothing reveals everything, but everything reveals something.


----------



## McG

KevinB said:


> To be fair most of the Russian kit is mid 20th century…


I’ve read that some members of the separatist puppet armies have 19th century rifles.


----------



## Skysix

McG said:


> I’ve read that some members of the separatist puppet armies have 19th century rifles.


So did the CF until the Rangers got new rifles a very few years back


----------



## Skysix

Has anyone verified the 250 surrendered UA troops in Mariupol?


----------



## Skysix

"There has been some discussion surrounding the significant losses to Russian equipment, but quite a few have pointed to the vast size of the Russian Armed Forces as providing a healthy equipment pool from which to draw troop reinforcements as long as the personnel losses can be covered – and notable is that e.g. when it comes to tank losses approximately half the confirmed losses are destroyed or damaged, with the rest being captured or damaged, something which _might _indicate that the equipment losses are quite a bit worse than the personnel losses."









						Corporal Frisk
					

Finnish blogger in reserve, defence and national security.




					corporalfrisk.com


----------



## MilEME09

Skysix said:


> Has anyone verified the 250 surrendered UA troops in Mariupol?


I've heard varying numbers, none of the OSINT circles I follow have anything concrete as information is scarce out of Mariupol right now. Eventually it will happen though, without a massive collapse of russias southern front those fighters are not going to last much longer


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511113804100288515


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511148955954184193


----------



## MilEME09

This is what the other side is like....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511165207921504260


----------



## GK .Dundas

MilEME09 said:


> This is what the other side is like....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511165207921504260


Jesus wept.
We.are going to go to war with these people  . 
I don't think it matters whether we have any desire to or not .


----------



## TacticalTea

Czech_pivo said:


> You're missing my point - there is no 'ethnicity' called 'Canadian' or 'American' - we have a state called Canada and a state called America.


I'm not sure what the right word is, because I'm not surprised, but maybe... appalled? by some reactions your comments on this matter have drawn in this thread.
Certainly lends credence to Kevin's point that the Anglosphere has little ability to contextualize and understand other cultures, even when those are European cultures!

On current matters; So the West suddenly wakes up, realizes that war criminals commit war crimes, and decides to finally send real weapons to Ukraine.

All this talk over the last five weeks about there being no time to train the Ukes... sure would've been nice to have had a 5-week headstart today, wouldn't it?


----------



## CBH99

TacticalTea said:


> I'm not sure what the right word is, because I'm not surprised, but maybe... appalled? by some reactions your comments on this matter have drawn in this thread.
> Certainly lends credence to Kevin's point that the Anglosphere has little ability to contextualize and understand other cultures, even when those are European cultures!
> 
> On current matters; So the West suddenly wakes up, realizes that war criminals commit war crimes, and decides to finally send real weapons to Ukraine.
> 
> All this talk over the last five weeks about there being no time to train the Ukes... sure would've been nice to have had a 5-week headstart today, wouldn't it?


Doesn’t having 500 trainers in the Ukraine, doing exactly that, since 2014/2015 count?


----------



## CBH99

KevinB said:


> I still wouldn’t mind a few hours with him with a belt sander and a blow torch. I promise I’ll only use Russian humanitarian methods too.
> Just saying.


To be fair, KevinB is the only guy I’ve ever heard refer to a ‘vanilla side of SOCOM’ 😅

While I have no idea how the above tools compliment each other in any sort of situation, my virgin ears know well enough to know not to ask


----------



## TacticalTea

CBH99 said:


> Doesn’t having 500 trainers in the Ukraine, doing exactly that, since 2014/2015 count?


It's a nice contribution of course, but a better contribution would've been deploying a whole brigade to Ukraine at the time. Russia never would've done anything.

But that's neither here nor there as both of those are outside the scope of this discussion in my view. The immediate matter of concern is that Ukraine has been, for weeks now, asking for better armament. An arsenal that would actually allow them to overwhelm Russian forces, mount a real offensive, and kick them out of their country.

We've failed, so far, to do everything we can. I understand, though I may disagree with, the decision not to intervene militarily.

But the fact that we're still sitting here and debating whether or not to uphold the liberal world order our freedom and prosperity depend on, and give Russia the black eye and bloodied nose it deserves... is utterly beyond my comprehension.


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> This is what the other side is like....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511165207921504260


And, in the wake of the unveiling of the Butsha massacre, I would address the enemy with the words of a great singer from a time and place long gone:

_(Russian soldier) You ain't no hero when you kill a child and you cannot cry.
(Donbass rebel) You ain't no hero when you shoot a liner from the sky.
(Kremlin mouthpiece) You ain't no hero when you're preaching fear and hate
(Kadyrovite Chechen) And you shy away from battles with the soldiers of our state._


----------



## CBH99

TacticalTea said:


> It's a nice contribution of course, but a better contribution would've been deploying a whole brigade to Ukraine at the time. Russia never would've done anything.
> 
> But that's neither here nor there as both of those are outside the scope of this discussion in my view. The immediate matter of concern is that Ukraine has been, for weeks now, asking for better armament. An arsenal that would actually allow them to overwhelm Russian forces, mount a real offensive, and kick them out of their country.
> 
> We've failed, so far, to do everything we can. I understand, though I may disagree with, the decision not to intervene militarily.
> 
> But the fact that we're still sitting here and debating whether or not to uphold the liberal world order our freedom and prosperity depend on, and give Russian and black eye and bloodied nose... is utterly beyond my comprehension.


Agreed on all points.  

And like you, I understand the reasoning of not wanting to get militarily involved, even though I _may_ disagree with it.


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511245604873281536


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR MoD distributing these posters highlighting stuff not to touch (UKR Cabinet Office source)


----------



## Czech_pivo

GK .Dundas said:


> Jesus wept.
> We.are going to go to war with these people  .
> I don't think it matters whether we have any desire to or not .


Control the narrative = control the outcome.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

The Bread Guy said:


> UKR MoD distributing these posters highlighting stuff not to touch (UKR Cabinet Office source)
> View attachment 69889
> View attachment 69890
> View attachment 69891


IIRC the POM-1 (first time item) was dropped indiscriminately by Russian forces in Afghanistan.


----------



## KevinB

Retired AF Guy said:


> IIRC the POM-1 (first time item) was dropped indiscriminately by Russian forces in Afghanistan.


They also built them in many different colors to attract children in Afghanistan, I suspect we we will see pastel and bright colored ones in Ukraine as well.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511337128831197199


----------



## Halifax Tar

MilEME09 said:


> This is what the other side is like....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511165207921504260



Lets also not forget the protests and arrests in opposition to this war









						2022 anti-war protests in Russia - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




Keep your head on a swivel and look for the narrative people want to you bite on too when ingesting media.


----------



## armrdsoul77

MilEME09 said:


> This is what the other side is like....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511165207921504260


The same ignorance and hate shown by Trump supporters.






Keep the posts on topic and if you wish to post about Trump or US Politics, do so in the appropriate thread.

Milnet.ca Staff


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511337128831197199


This version'll get you through the WSJ firewall if needed - thx for sharing that!


----------



## Prairie canuck

Brad Sallows said:


> There aren't many gates in Europe for the bully to be at unless he wants to risk an Article 5.  If Sweden and Finland act now, fewer.  If European nations act on the realization that they will be more secure if they are more independent of Russian resources, the bully will have less leverage.
> 
> There is more pushback now than in 2014.  That isn't a trend that can be described as "losing the international order".
> 
> If Russians insist on being unreasonably paranoid about their borders and their access to the oceans of the world, no-one can help them.  All they have to do is stop being dicks.


Russia is about to take Hungary, a NATO member, *without firing a shot*. Different tactic but the same results. Turkey may be next. The EU and NATO are watching it happen, again.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Russia is about to take Hungary, a NATO member, *without firing a shot*. Different tactic but the same results. Turkey may be next. The EU and NATO are watching it happen, again.



Absent explanation, I call bullsh!t.


----------



## ModlrMike

Brad Sallows said:


> Absent explanation, I call bullsh!t.


Asked and answered:









						Viktor Orban, key Putin ally, calls Zelensky an 'opponent' after winning Hungary election
					

Hungary's authoritarian leader and longtime Russian ally, Viktor Orban, clinched a fourth consecutive term in power on Sunday, after a landslide election win that he touted as a rebuke of liberalism, the European Union and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Kirkhill

ModlrMike said:


> Asked and answered:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Viktor Orban, key Putin ally, calls Zelensky an 'opponent' after winning Hungary election
> 
> 
> Hungary's authoritarian leader and longtime Russian ally, Viktor Orban, clinched a fourth consecutive term in power on Sunday, after a landslide election win that he touted as a rebuke of liberalism, the European Union and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com


Add in Serbia and the Balkans look to remain a hotspot.  There are also ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine.  And the omnipresent Transnistrian Russo-Moldovans.


----------



## Weinie

Czech_pivo said:


> Control the narrative = control the outcome.


Narrative can drive outcome, until the point where outcome drives results/impact. Narrative is just one of many enablers/factors.


----------



## Skysix

ModlrMike said:


> Asked and answered:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Viktor Orban, key Putin ally, calls Zelensky an 'opponent' after winning Hungary election
> 
> 
> Hungary's authoritarian leader and longtime Russian ally, Viktor Orban, clinched a fourth consecutive term in power on Sunday, after a landslide election win that he touted as a rebuke of liberalism, the European Union and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com


Turkey is using Russia  as it is using NATO, to become a regional power. Could an alliance of Turkey, Ukraine and several other disenchanted NATO states form an independent but western oriented mutual defense alliance? If NATO keeps being bullied bluffed and outplayed, very likely


----------



## The Bread Guy

Interesting if even partially true (original in Ukrainian from mil int site - Google translation below)

*Russian servicemen who committed atrocities in Bucha are being returned to Ukraine*
April 5, 2022

Russian servicemen who committed atrocities in Bucha are being returned to UkraineThe 64th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 35th All-Russian Army, whose servicemen massacred and tortured civilians in Bucha, will be returned to Ukraine. The Russian command will not rotate the personnel in this unit and will throw it back to the front.

As of April 4, the brigade had been withdrawn from Ukraine to Belarus and was near the town of Mozyr. By April 6, the personnel will be transported by rail to Belgorod, Russia. After only a two-day vacation, they plan to return to Ukraine in one of the "hottest" places (approximately - Kharkiv direction). As a rule, Russian units leaving the combat zone receive much more time for recovery and rest.

Such a schedule indicates that "special tasks" are expected for the 64th Brigade. The first of them: intimidation of inhabitants of settlements of Ukraine. Those who committed the crimes of genocide in Bucha may repeat this again in other cities.

Another goal of the rapid return of the 64th Brigade to the territory of Ukraine is the rapid "disposal" of unnecessary witnesses. That is, redeployment to a section of the front where they will have no chance of surviving to make it impossible to testify in future courts.

The personnel of the unit, aware of the resonance of the events in Bucha and the responsibility for the crimes committed, massively opposes the return to Ukraine. However, the Russian command ignores these sentiments and threatens the tribunal if it refuses to continue fighting. Release reports are not accepted.

Currently, Ukrainian and international investigators are documenting numerous war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by the Russian military. And no criminal occupier will escape proper punishment.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> Add in Serbia and the Balkans look to remain a hotspot.  There are also ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine.  And the omnipresent Transnistrian Russo-Moldovans.


Unless Russia somehow manages to take ALL of the Ukraine, the Russia/Hungarian/Serbia romance will die on the vine.  There is 0 ways for Russia to reach Hungarian/Serbian territory in today's new world. 

Hungary still has 'issues' with 4/7 countries that it borders, the Slovaks, Serbs, Ukrainians and Romanians due to the fact of there still being Hungarian pockets within each of those countries. To them there is 'injustices' going back as far as WW1 and as recent as WW2.

When I was in Esztergom, Hungary in Easter of 1994, at the bend of the Danube River between newly created Slovakia and Hungary I was staring at the remains of a bridge between the Esztergom and Sturovo in Slovakia that the Germans/Hungarians blew in late 1994 to slow the Soviets that had never been repaired from 1944 to 50yrs later in 1994, (it was finally rebuilt after 2000 with EU money).  Why, because the west bank of the Danube had been Hungarian up until 1919 when the final boundaries between Czechoslovakia and Hungary were finalised.  The city, Sturovo (called Parkany in Hungarian) was given to the Hungarians again in 1938 and they lost it again in 1944.  Up until this bridge was finally repaired, there was literally only 1 single remaining bridge across the Danube between Hungary and the old CSSR.

Hungarian minorities in Transylvania (Romania), the city and surrounding region of Novi Sad in Serbia and of course the current disputes with Ukraine make Hungary a bit on the naughty list in CE today.

EDIT: It helps to have focused my Master studies on Ethnic Identity/Nationalism in Europe in the early/mid 90's and having travelled extensively throughout the entire region during my time studying and then working in Europe to gain some of these insights.


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> Turkey is using Russia  as it is using NATO, to become a regional power. Could an alliance of Turkey, Ukraine and several other disenchanted NATO states form an independent but western oriented mutual defense alliance? If NATO keeps being bullied bluffed and outplayed, very likely



Still not convinced that Sweden and Finland see a great benefit to joining NATO.  If anything I could see an "alliance of Neutrals" between the EU/NATO and Russia/China.


----------



## Prairie canuck

Brad Sallows said:


> Absent explanation, I call bullsh!t.


What do you think Orbon is doing? He's used Russian media tactics, lies, and verbiage to win his election, He's accused Ukraine of working with opposition parties to overturn his leadership, he's buddy buddy with Putin, he won't allow any military aid to Ukraine to pass through his country, he's resisted imposing sanctions on Russia, he's imposing more and more control over the state's judiciary, media, and education, and so on.


----------



## Kirkhill

Czech_pivo said:


> Unless Russia somehow manages to take ALL of the Ukraine, the Russia/Hungarian/Serbia romance will die on the vine.  There is 0 ways for Russia to reach Hungarian/Serbian territory in today's new world.
> 
> Hungary still has 'issues' with 4/7 countries that it borders, the Slovaks, Serbs, Ukrainians and Romanians due to the fact of there still being Hungarian pockets within each of those countries. To them there is 'injustices' going back as far as WW1 and as recent as WW2.
> 
> When I was in Esztergom, Hungary in Easter of 1994, at the bend of the Danube River between newly created Slovakia and Hungary I was staring at the remains of a bridge between the Esztergom and Sturovo in Slovakia that the Germans/Hungarians blew in late 1994 to slow the Soviets that had never been repaired from 1944 to 50yrs later in 1994, (it was finally rebuilt after 2000 with EU money).  Why, because the west bank of the Danube had been Hungarian up until 1919 when the final boundaries between Czechoslovakia and Hungary were finalised.  The city, Sturovo (called Parkany in Hungarian) was given to the Hungarians again in 1938 and they lost it again in 1944.  Up until this bridge was finally repaired, there was literally only 1 single remaining bridge across the Danube between Hungary and the old CSSR.
> 
> Hungarian minorities in Transylvania (Romania), the city and surrounding region of Novi Sad in Serbia and of course the current disputes with Ukraine make Hungary a bit on the naughty list in CE today.



On the other hand I don't think Hungary is going to become anymore friendly with NATO than it is.  And FRY is still FRY with all its cleavages.  Bulgaria is a fairly reluctant ally as well.  Romania/Moldova has its Transnistria problem.  Russia still holds Crimea.  Greece and Turkey still don't get along and Albania is Albania.

That whole corner of Europe is pretty much impossible to predict.  Especially with its overlap into the Middle East and Turkic Asia.

I disagree that there are 0 ways for Russia to connect.  They may not be able to drive a BTG into Hungary.  That doesn't mean they can't connect and, as much as I think Russia is on the backfoot and vulnerable I'm not ready to discount it as a present or future player.  It has been "out of the game" many times before and clawed its way back into the headlines.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> On the other hand I don't think Hungary is going to become anymore friendly with NATO than it is.  And FRY is still FRY with all its cleavages.  Bulgaria is a fairly reluctant ally as well.  Romania/Moldova has its Transnistria problem.  Russia still holds Crimea.  Greece and Turkey still don't get along and Albania is Albania.
> 
> That whole corner of Europe is pretty much impossible to predict.  Especially with its overlap into the Middle East and Turkic Asia.
> 
> I disagree that there are 0 ways for Russia to connect.  They may not be able to drive a BTG into Hungary.  That doesn't mean they can't connect and, as much as I think Russia is on the backfoot and vulnerable I'm not ready to discount it as a present or future player.  It has been "out of the game" many times before and clawed its way back into the headlines.


Spot on with Bulgaria - religion, language, culture - lots of lingering ties between the two of them. Long standing hatred/distrust towards Turkey is another angle. 
That pocket of Europe is truly a bit of a shit show, has been and in some cases still is.


----------



## Kirkhill

Reputedly an intercept from a Russian soldier calling home.  He is complaining about being outnumbered.

I'd take his "150,000" in the spirit of "There's fousands of 'em! Millions!"  On the other hand his 3000 comment is interesting.  That would seem to be equivalent to something like 4 BTGs - a brigade for us but nominally a Division for them.

The other thing noteworthy is the sense that they are surrounded - ie taking effective fire from all sides.  They are operating in isolated pockets and haven't figured out how to generate a coordinated, concentrated offensive on a single front.


“… Their grouping is 150,000-strong …! And if we have 3,000 soldiers that’s considered to be damn good… They are on the left, on the right, f*cking encircling us. What struck me most is that they outnumber us so massively…" one of the Russian soldiers said, speaking over the phone.









						Commanders order Russian soldiers to shoot civilians in Ukraine - intercept
					

The Security Service of Ukraine has intercepted communications of Russian forces testifying to criminal orders being issued by Russian commanders to their soldiers to open fire on civilians in Ukraine. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Brad Sallows

Hungary is going to fall to Russia because Hungary is dependent on Russia for energy and doesn't want to get involved in Ukraine?  That's weak.

Breaking news: "with us or against us" aren't the only two possible foreign affairs policies.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Skysix said:


> Turkey is using Russia  as it is using NATO, to become a regional power. Could an alliance of Turkey, Ukraine and several other disenchanted NATO states form an independent but western oriented mutual defense alliance? If NATO keeps being bullied bluffed and outplayed, very likely


Turkey has recently had an interesting ... tug of war?  wishbone? ... relationship with NATO and Russia - like that time they wanted BOTH the American-made-and-maintained F-35 and the Russian-made-and-maintained S-400.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> What do you think Orbon is doing?



Congratulations.  You've discovered that Orban is a wannabe authoritarian.

For those that missed the 20th century: Hungarians mostly do not like Russia.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Brad Sallows said:


> Breaking news: "with us or against us" aren't the only two possible foreign affairs policies.


Ask the Turks, right?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some staggering figures, even if inflated, via the UKR government (Google English - original statement in Ukrainian) - highlights mine


> *(Minister for reintegration of temporarily occupied Ukraine) Irina Vereshchuk: Russia will pay for everything! - calculations have already begun
> *
> In 40 days of full-scale invasion, Russia has inflicted unprecedented losses and losses on Ukraine. The most painful and irreparable are human lives. We will never forgive them, assured Vice Prime Minister - Minister for Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine Iryna Vereshchuk. Retribution will come for every life.
> 
> However, there are large economic losses. These are hundreds and thousands of destroyed houses, hundreds of bridges, schools, kindergartens and hospitals, airports, businesses, tens of thousands of destroyed roads.
> 
> *"Direct losses of physical infrastructure - according to experts of the Kyiv School of Economics, carried out in cooperation with the Ministry of Reintegration and the government team within the project" Russia will pay "- as of April 1, 2022 amounted to at least 68 billion US dollars,"* - said Irina Vereshchuk. This is more than UAH 2 trillion. Indirect losses are almost 10 times greater.
> 
> According to the official, the Ministry of Reintegration, in accordance with the recently adopted government decree "On approval of the Procedure for determining the damage and damage caused to Ukraine by the armed aggression of the Russian Federation", is designed to coordinate the work of all ministries to assess losses.
> 
> They will be determined by 15 categories: loss of economy, infrastructure, environment, cultural heritage, etc.
> 
> And although the war is not over yet, and the invader is destroying our country every day, the Ministry of Reintegration and the Government have already begun this work.
> 
> "Russia, as the aggressor state of the 21st century, will fully compensate for all these losses and will be held accountable. And the entire Government team will make every effort to achieve this, "the head of the Ministry of Reintegration assured.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Another good satire Twitter feed to track ....


----------



## TacticalTea

The Bread Guy said:


> Some staggering figures, even if inflated, via the UKR government (Google English - original statement in Ukrainian) - highlights mine


Maybe we *should* build a wall and make the mex- Russians pay for it.

More seriously, the costs seem on track to amount to about a trillion. A third of that could be paid up simply by repurposing frozen Russian liquid and semi-liquid assets.

Another third, I'd presume, by developing and exploiting Ukraine's O&G reserves.

The last third can be forked out by the coalition of the willing as part of Marshall II.


----------



## JLB50

Czech_pivo said:


> Spot on with Bulgaria - religion, language, culture - lots of lingering ties between the two of them. Long standing hatred/distrust towards Turkey is another angle.



An Albanian friend tells me that there’s a saying in the Balkans that goes something to this effect:  ”The Greeks hate the Albanians, the Albanians hate the Macedonians, the Macedonians hate the Bulgarians, the Bulgarians hate the the Serbs, the Serbs hate the Croatians, etc., etc.  BUT EVERYBODY HATES THE TURKS.“.


----------



## Kirkhill

JLB50 said:


> An Albanian friend tells me that there’s a saying in the Balkans that goes something to this effect:  ”The Greeks hate the Albanians, the Albanians hate the Macedonians, the Macedonians hate the Bulgarians, the Bulgarians hate the the Serbs, the Serbs hate the Croatians, etc., etc.  BUT EVERYBODY HATES THE TURKS.“.


Serbs also distrust Venetians apparently, based on a conversation I had with a Serb.


----------



## The Bread Guy

And if you're a believer in the "accuse the other side of shit you're doing" school of narrative control, this from RUS state media








						Ukrainian Militants Plan to Kill Witnesses to Their Crimes in Mariupol - DPR Authorities
					

MOSCOW (Sputnik) - Ukrainian militants from the Azov battalion were ordered to kill all potential witnesses to their crimes before leaving Mariupol, a representative of the People's Militia of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) said on...




					sputniknews.com


----------



## MilEME09

Looks like Ukraine is winning the air war, Russia isn't entertaining into Ukraine much now.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511480574724218889


----------



## Prairie canuck

Brad Sallows said:


> Hungary is going to fall to Russia because Hungary is dependent on Russia for energy and doesn't want to get involved in Ukraine?  That's weak.
> 
> Breaking news: "with us or against us" aren't the only two possible foreign affairs policies.


Your words not mine. We'll have to agree to disagree.


----------



## Czech_pivo

JLB50 said:


> An Albanian friend tells me that there’s a saying in the Balkans that goes something to this effect:  ”The Greeks hate the Albanians, the Albanians hate the Macedonians, the Macedonians hate the Bulgarians, the Bulgarians hate the the Serbs, the Serbs hate the Croatians, etc., etc.  BUT EVERYBODY HATES THE TURKS.“.


From 1878 to 1922 have a guess how many wars occurred in that little corner of Europe.

1) 1878 - Russo-Turk War - the ortho-crew (Russia, Bulgaria, Romania, Serbs, Montenegro) against the Turks
2) 1912/13 - First Balkan War - Bulgarians, Serb, Greeks and Montenegro against the Turks
3) 1913 - Second Balkan War - Bulgarians against the Serbs and Greeks
4) 1915-18 - WWI - Bulgarians and Turks join the Central Powers against the Serbs, Montenegro and the Greeks
5) 1919-22 - Greco-Turkish War - Greeks against the Turks.

Crappy place to live, but decent food, beaches and alcohol….


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511375649210093568


----------



## JLB50

Czech_pivo said:


> From 1878 to 1922 have a guess how many wars occurred in that little corner of Europe.
> 
> 1) 1878 - Russo-Turk War - the ortho-crew (Russia, Bulgaria, Romania, Serbs, Montenegro) against the Turks
> 2) 1912/13 - First Balkan War - Bulgarians, Serb, Greeks and Montenegro against the Turks
> 3) 1913 - Second Balkan War - Bulgarians against the Serbs and Greeks
> 4) 1915-18 - WWI - Bulgarians and Turks join the Central Powers against the Serbs, Montenegro and the Greeks
> 5) 1919-22 - Greco-Turkish War - Greeks against the Turks.
> 
> Crappy place to live, but decent food, beaches and alcohol….


My grandfather left Greece around 1920 and emigrated to the U.S.  He had many stories to tell of not just war but outright savagery.  I also heard terrible stories from an Estonian friend whose dad experienced Russian atrocities, and when the Germans invaded Eastern Europe, he ended up joining the German army to get back at the Russians.  The problem is, many of these countries have overlapping land claims and want to reconquer the areas they held at the time of their maximum historical expansion.  

Resurrection of the Russian empire is just not a realistic goal in today’s world.  As a result, tens of thousands, hundred of thousands  or even millions of people may end up losing their lives before the Russian people realize that their fantasies were doomed to failure.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Kirkhill said:


> Serbs also distrust Venetians apparently, based on a conversation I had with a Serb.



What do they have against window coverings ?


----------



## JLB50

Halifax Tar said:


> What do they have against window coverings ?


It’s called blind hatred.


----------



## Weinie

Kirkhill said:


> Serbs also distrust Venetians apparently, based on a conversation I had with a Serb.


Venetians.....well yeah. High falutin and mighty about their canals, their boats, and their singers on boats. I distrust them immensely.


----------



## Weinie

CougarKing said:


> Hopefully, this won't lead to another dispute similar to the 2009 one between Ukraine and Russia which left Western European nations without gas.


And this was the quote, back in 2013, that started off this thread.


----------



## MilEME09

Semi related


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511504161568866310


----------



## Brad Sallows

NATO exists primarily to contain Russia, but that is not all NATO does.

NATO prevents members from warring with each other, and probably also influences members to not severely mistreat dissident/separatist minorities.  It can't erase all the bonds and barriers of two millennia.  It's unreasonable to expect every member to sing from the same sheet in the same key.


----------



## Skysix

Czech_pivo said:


> From 1878 to 1922 have a guess how many wars occurred in that little corner of Europe.
> 
> 1) 1878 - Russo-Turk War - the ortho-crew (Russia, Bulgaria, Romania, Serbs, Montenegro) against the Turks
> 2) 1912/13 - First Balkan War - Bulgarians, Serb, Greeks and Montenegro against the Turks
> 3) 1913 - Second Balkan War - Bulgarians against the Serbs and Greeks
> 4) 1915-18 - WWI - Bulgarians and Turks join the Central Powers against the Serbs, Montenegro and the Greeks
> 5) 1919-22 - Greco-Turkish War - Greeks against the Turks.
> 
> Crappy place to live, but decent food, beaches and alcohol….


1973 Turks Vs Greeks in Cyprus


----------



## KevinB

Skysix said:


> 1973 Turks Vs Greeks in Cyprus


1973 Turks versus CAR, Cyprus…


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511227110467252226


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511445318201663495


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511486445533511685


----------



## MilEME09




----------



## WLSC

MilEME09 said:


> View attachment 69912


I got a « What are you thinking about » today when reading stuff about Ukraine 😆


----------



## NavyShooter

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511359412971216902
Interesting if true...apparently there is a 6 minute audio intercept associated.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511568441261674497


----------



## Infanteer

Soldier35 said:


> Mariupol is 95% under the control of the Russian Army and Allied forces.



I heard it was 93%.


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> Mariupol is 95% under the control of the Russian Army and Allied forces. The point in the battle for the city will be set at the Azovstal plant, the ring around it has shrunk. Russia will gain full military control over Mariupol in the coming days. Heavy artillery has already started firing direct fire, an ACS 2C3 "Acacia" with a 152-mm caliber firing direct fire was seen on the streets. The mass surrender of Ukrainian army soldiers began in Mariupol.



Hey @Soldier35, what’s taking them so long?  They should have completed their mission last week, just like the forces that crushed Kyiv.



Soldier35 said:


> Footage of the shooting of the Russian Tor-M2 SAM at a Ukrainian UAV has been published. According to the calculation of the SAM, during the special operation in Ukraine, they fired 20 missiles, hit 11 targets, among them seven Bayraktar TB2 Turkish-made UAVs. "Tor-M2" is a representative of a new generation of short-range air defense systems.


 
55% success rate?  Oouf…that’s pretty bad.  If you Russians keep letting all those TB2s destroy all your armour, you’re going to have to pull all those T-55s out museums to fight.  It’s a shame you didn’t produce more than a handful of T-14s…the Ukrainians could have added the T-14 to the Bayraktar song if they hadn’t all been destroyed so soon into the beginning of your Super Duper Special Military Awesome Operation. 



Soldier35 said:


> The mass surrender of Ukrainian army soldiers began. On April 5, at night, 267 Ukrainian soldiers from the 503rd battalion of the 36th Separate Marine Brigade of the Naval Forces of Ukraine surrendered in Mariupol near the village of Sartana.



So if 257 is “mass” what is 17,000 dead Russian boys, sons, grandsons?  That’s like half your army, right?  Wow, that’s embarrassing!  Maybe 2023’s mobilization will go better for you?


----------



## Brad Sallows

I wonder what it costs the treasury to rebuild a city to usefulness.  Otherwise it's worth not much more than the fields around it.


----------



## TacticalTea

Brad Sallows said:


> I wonder what it costs the treasury to rebuild a city to usefulness.  Otherwise it's worth not much more than the fields around it.


It's worth the community, the symbol of hope, the story, the memories of those who survived, the heritage of those who haven't, as well as all the same reasons that city was built there in the first place.

It's why almost every city is always rebuilt after destruction, unless foundational conditions have fundamentally changed (ie; civilizational collapse, climate change-induced erosion, nuclear disaster, etc)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Brad Sallows said:


> ... Otherwise it's worth not much more than the fields around it.


Donetsk rebel media:  Not to worry, comrade - this is all hand ...








						DPR begins first sowing campaign in liberated farm lands of Mariupol
					

Donetsk, Apr 4 – DAN. The sowing of early spring cereals began in the area of the village of Volodarskoye to the north-west of Mariupol, the DPR Ministry




					dan-news.info


----------



## suffolkowner

I think its fair to say that Ukraine has survived the first stage of this war. It seems unlikely to me that Russia is going to be able gain much more or hold much of the territory long term but that remains to be seen. Clearly the Russians have taken huge losses in manpower and equipment but just as clearly the Ukrainians must be as well otherwise they would not be asking for tanks as replacements. 
With over 17,000 AT weapons of various makes donated it astounds me that they require more let alone 500 a day and 500 stingers a day!
I think at this point any excuses for not finding a way to supply Ukraine with what ever Mig-29's, T-72's, Buks and S-300's have been answered.  I doubt Russia can handle another 6 weeks of this the question is can Ukraine?


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> I think its fair to say that Ukraine has survived the first stage of this war. It seems unlikely to me that Russia is going to be able gain much more or hold much of the territory long term but that remains to be seen. Clearly the Russians have taken huge losses in manpower and equipment but just as clearly the Ukrainians must be as well otherwise they would not be asking for tanks as replacements.
> With over 17,000 AT weapons of various makes donated it astounds me that they require more let alone 500 a day and 500 stingers a day!
> I think at this point any excuses for not finding a way to supply Ukraine with what ever Mig-29's, T-72's, Buks and S-300's have been answered.  I doubt Russia can handle another 6 weeks of this the question is can Ukraine?


Unless Russia mobilizes a lot more troops, Ukraine has the advantage in man power, pre war the army was 1.1 million including the reserves. Now if you include the territorial defense force it be at or above that. That is why they need equipment.


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511563287057551368


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511680919693926411


----------



## KevinB

Soldier35 said:


> Mariupol is 95% under the control of the Russian Army and Allied forces. The point in the battle for the city will be set at the Azovstal plant, the ring around it has shrunk. Russia will gain full military control over Mariupol in the coming days. Heavy artillery has already started firing direct fire, an ACS 2C3 "Acacia" with a 152-mm caliber firing direct fire was seen on the streets. The mass surrender of Ukrainian army soldiers began in Mariupol.


Pretty telling that with over a 10:1 Force ratio the Russian Forces are still not 100% in control.   
   I really need to get a copy of ‘How not to Wage War’ by the Russian MoD. 



Soldier35 said:


> Footage of the shooting of the Russian Tor-M2 SAM at a Ukrainian UAV has been published. According to the calculation of the SAM, during the special operation in Ukraine, they fired 20 missiles, hit 11 targets, among them seven Bayraktar TB2 Turkish-made UAVs. "Tor-M2" is a representative of a new generation of short-range air defense systems.


So when NATO systems are running a 95% plus hit and destruction rate, I guess this is another example of Russian inferior equipment and troops.  



Soldier35 said:


> The mass surrender of Ukrainian army soldiers began. On April 5, at night, 267 Ukrainian soldiers from the 503rd battalion of the 36th Separate Marine Brigade of the Naval Forces of Ukraine surrendered in Mariupol near the village of Sartana.


Considering the 503rd has been in close combat for over 30 days those soldiers look in pretty decent shape. 
   Satellite footage suggests that those are actually new Russian forces brought in and filmed for propaganda purposes and if any of  the 503rd had surrendered the been murdered by yet more Russians atrocities.


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511680919693926411


Just like the Einsatzgruppen's....

After the fall of Stalingrad in February 1943, Himmler realised that Germany would likely lose the war, and ordered the formation of a special task force, _Sonderaktion 1005_, under SS-_Standartenführer_ Paul Blobel. The _*unit's assignment was to visit mass graves*_ all along the Eastern Front_* to exhume bodies and burn them in an attempt to cover up the genocide.*_ The task remained unfinished at the end of the war, and many mass graves remain unmarked and unexcavated


----------



## JLB50

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511680919693926411


I always try to approach major news items like this with a degree of initial scepticism but, if true (and I suspect it is), then the scale and magnitude of what has happened in Mariupol alone are truly horrific.  Thousands or even tens of thousands of innocent people dead in just one city as a result of bombing or outright execution?  What does it take for the West and the rest of the world to intervene?  More than ever the United Nations is a joke.


----------



## Telegrammer

This mobile crematorium topic has been raised multiple times since the war begun; however they keep using the same 2013 manufacturer photo as proof; multiple fact-checking websites can neither confirm nor deny this story, i.e








						Is Russia Using Mobile Crematoriums to Hide Evidence of Casualties in Ukraine?
					

The crematoriums were reportedly in use in 2015, as well.




					www.snopes.com
				











						Truth or Fake - Is Russia using mobile crematoriums in Ukraine?
					

British website The Telegraph is reporting that Russia is using mobile crematoriums in Ukraine in bid to hide its losses. But the accompanying video footage of a crematorium actually dates from 2013.…




					www.france24.com
				




Since it's capability is supposedly "one body at a time", they'd need a lot of these units working 24/7 in unison - imagine the heat signature - and would be hard to conceal from, say, US satellites


----------



## Telegrammer

MilEME09 said:


> Unless Russia mobilizes a lot more troops, Ukraine has the advantage in man power, pre war the army was 1.1 million including the reserves. Now if you include the territorial defense force it be at or above that. That is why they need equipment.


I recommend following this guy on FB: Facebook (Arkadiy Babchenko, a dissident Russian journalist in exile - there's a bounty on his head in Russia, Chechen Wars vet).

So far a lot of his forecasts and analyses were close to reality.

P.S. Interestingly, because SBU faked his death a few years ago, trying to frame FSB, this gives grounds to pro-Russian conspiracy theorists today saying that "if SBU faked Babchenko's death on worldwide news, they could be doing it again "faking war crimes" now"...


----------



## Remius

JLB50 said:


> I always try to approach major news items like this with a degree of initial scepticism but, if true (and I suspect it is), then the scale and magnitude of what has happened in Mariupol alone are truly horrific.  Thousands or even tens of thousands of innocent people dead in just one city as a result of bombing or outright execution?  What does it take for the West and the rest of the world to intervene?  More than ever the United Nations is a joke.


It would seem the time that it takes to cremate bodies at that rate would be a bit much given the numbers.  I’m a little sceptical myself.  

But I’m sceptical in the sense that I don’t think that Russians are even bothering to cover anything up.  They’ll keep doing what they’ve done.  Deny despite all evidence to the contrary.  I think they are quite happy with the visuals as in some weird warped way they think it projects power.  

Evil.  And the people of that country just follow along.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Interesting dilemma:  UKR has RUS POWs (600 if this statement is to be believed), but RUS won't trade them for civvy hostages - this from UKR's Deputy PM ....


> ... "At present, there are about 600 Russian prisoners in Ukraine," the Deputy Prime Minister reminded. - We are constantly negotiating their exchange for our defenders. We compile lists and involve the International Committee of the Red Cross in the process. But there is a separate problem. The russians are holding hostages not only the military, but many civilian Ukrainians: mayors, journalists, volunteers, clergy, ordinary workers who have never held a weapon. "
> 
> As Iryna Vereshchuk explained, we have no one to change them for. Because russia sets a condition: the military - on the military, civilians - on civilians.
> 
> "I keep asking russian negotiators: should we also capture russians around the world to be an exchange fund? But we are not terrorists or pirates, so we will not act like that," Iryna Vereschuk said ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Soldier35 said:


> Mariupol is 95% under the control of the Russian Army and Allied forces ...


That'll be a great distraction from having to explain this to the folks back home, no?  








						Ukrainian expert: Hundreds of Russian troops received lethal dose of radiation in Chernobyl
					

Ukraine’s Vice Minister for Protection of the Environment and Natural Resources, Ruslan Strelets, said hundreds of Russian troops were subjected to high levels of radiation after withdrawing from Ukraine’s Chernobyl exclusion zone. During a TV news marathon, Strelets said his agency has...




					www.uawire.org


----------



## Telegrammer

The Bread Guy said:


> Interesting dilemma:  UKR has RUS POWs (600 if this statement is to be believed), but RUS won't trade them for civvy hostages - this from UKR's Deputy PM ....


there was an exchange in March, where they exchanged 1 UKR mayor for 8 or 9 RUS POWs.

Also, some food for thought from people on the ground: currently a lot of organized crime are using the war as a cover-up in order to settle old beefs or increase their spheres of influence. A lot of gang-related kidnappings and assassinations are happening across the country. (Also, from the people on the ground: a lot of donated goods collected by volunteers in the west, are being resold on the black market - i.e. only 20% of the items get to Kyiv, for example, yest you see Kirkland Costco goods for sale in the stores in Lviv. People are making millions reselling the donated goods)

Same things were happening in 2014-15, where the entire Donbas region was flooded with criminals who used the war as a cover-up for personal gain.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Telegrammer said:


> there was an exchange in March, where they exchanged 1 UKR mayor for 8 or 9 RUS POWs.


I read about that, but that appeared to be locally organized - like some exchanges of UKR prisoners for RUS bodies.  I think the D/PM was referring more to larger-scale big-group exchanges organized from "up top".


Telegrammer said:


> ... currently a lot of organized crime are using the war as a cover-up in order to settle old beefs or increase their spheres of influence. A lot of gang-related kidnappings and assassinations are happening across the country. (Also, from the people on the ground: a lot of donated goods collected by volunteers in the west, are being resold on the black market - i.e. only 20% of the items get to Kyiv, for example, yest you see Kirkland Costco goods for sale in the stores in Lviv. People are making millions reselling the donated goods)
> 
> Same things were happening in 2014-15, where the entire Donbas region was flooded with criminals who used the war as a cover-up for personal gain.


Happened in other wars in other times in other places, so while sad, not surprising.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Good2Golf said:


> Hey @Soldier35, what’s taking them so long?  They should have completed their mission last week, just like the forces that crushed Kyiv.


Some jerk off commander is probably making them hide the civilians they murdered instead of leaving them in the street.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> It's worth the community



I mean, to Russia if they take it and keep it.  Gonna be an expensive war for Putin.


----------



## CBH99

TacticalTea said:


> Maybe we *should* build a wall and make the mex- Russians pay for it.
> 
> More seriously, the costs seem on track to amount to about a trillion. A third of that could be paid up simply by repurposing frozen Russian liquid and semi-liquid assets.
> 
> Another third, I'd presume, by developing and exploiting Ukraine's O&G reserves.
> 
> The last third can be forked out by the coalition of the willing as part of Marshall II.


I was going to ask how Russia would pay for it, given the value of it’s currency and the ever increasing sanctions - not to mention having several countries promptly looking elsewhere for their oil & gas now. 

Developing Ukrainian industry is a great alternative with certain commodities.  But the revenue generated from those projects shouldn’t have to be used for physically rebuilding the country.  (Although they probably won’t have a choice…)


I doubt Russia will pay for the damage it’s done in Ukraine.  Even if they were willing, I don’t think they could.  Especially not now.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

CBH99 said:


> I was going to ask how Russia would pay for it, given the value of it’s currency and the ever increasing sanctions - not to mention having several countries promptly looking elsewhere for their oil & gas now.
> 
> Developing Ukrainian industry is a great alternative with certain commodities.  But the revenue generated from those projects shouldn’t have to be used for physically rebuilding the country.  (Although they probably won’t have a choice…)
> 
> 
> I doubt Russia will pay for the damage it’s done in Ukraine.  Even if they were willing, I don’t think they could.  Especially not now.


Your understanding of sanctions and the economic picture isn't quite there unfortunately.

Russia has been deliberately planning to offset the effect of sanctions for some time.  I would do a little bit of research in to this.

For instance, did you know that Russians are still using Mastercards and VISAs in the Country, despite both entities pulling out.... how could this be?









						Russia prepared for 8 years to be cut off from the West. Meet the payment system that’s still processing its credit card transactions
					

NSPK has helped Russia avoid the worst of western sanctions by allowing credit card transaction processing to continue.




					finance.yahoo.com
				




Russia is a commodity superpower.  Sanctions aren't going to be able to achieve Regime Change in Russia anymore than they could in Syria, Baathist Iraq, North Korea, etc.

The Russians are also playing with a way better deck of cards than any of those Countries ever were.

The Russian Ruble has already largely recovered from the sanctions shock:









						How Russia rescued the ruble
					

The Russian ruble lost nearly half its value when Russia invaded Ukraine. Since then, it has been the top-performing currency in the world.




					www.npr.org


----------



## The Bread Guy

Jarnhamar said:


> Some jerk off commander is probably making them hide the civilians they murdered instead of leaving them in the street.


New hashtag - #WarCrimesLessonsLearned


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> The Russians are also playing with a way better deck of cards than any of those Countries ever were.


Arguably playing with lighter fluid and a lighter at the same time. 


Humphrey Bogart said:


> The Russian Ruble has already largely recovered from the sanctions shock:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How Russia rescued the ruble
> 
> 
> The Russian ruble lost nearly half its value when Russia invaded Ukraine. Since then, it has been the top-performing currency in the world.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.npr.org


Rescue is a really misleading term.  The article points out that it is at best a very temporary Potemkin strategy that has the potential to be catastrophic.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Hmmmm, wonder how many of those kids being "adopted" to RUS families really are "orphans" (as opposed to, say, forcibly separated from refugees/"evacuees")?  I know, so young to be so cynical, right?  This from Luhansk rebel media ...


> The LPR and the Russian Federation are harmonizing legislation for the placement of orphans and children deprived of parental care from the Republic in Russian families, the Head of the Republic Leonid Pasechnik said at a meeting with Russian and LPR experts ...


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Hmmmm, wonder how many of those kids being "adopted" to RUS families really are "orphans" (as opposed to, say, forcibly separated from refugees/"evacuees")?  I know, so young to be so cynical, right?  This from Luhansk rebel media ...


Well they probably had just shot the parents…


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511759000429289472


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511754788307939329


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511773653578432519


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511743704314355723


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Hmmmm, wonder how many of those kids being "adopted" to RUS families really are "orphans" (as opposed to, say, forcibly separated from refugees/"evacuees")?  I know, so young to be so cynical, right?  This from Luhansk rebel media ...


You know, the Russians are acting more and more like the German Nazi's of WWII, first mobile crematoriums and now this.

During World War II, *around 200,000* *ethnic Polish children* *as well as an unspecified number of children of other ethnicities were abducted from their homes *and forcibly transported to Nazi Germany for purposes of.... Germanization.
An aim of the project was to acquire and "Germanize" children with purportedly Aryan-Nordic traits....









						Kidnapping of children by Nazi Germany - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## CBH99

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Your understanding of sanctions and the economic picture isn't quite there unfortunately.
> 
> Russia has been deliberately planning to offset the effect of sanctions for some time.  I would do a little bit of research in to this.
> 
> For instance, did you know that Russians are still using Mastercards and VISAs in the Country, despite both entities pulling out.... how could this be?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia prepared for 8 years to be cut off from the West. Meet the payment system that’s still processing its credit card transactions
> 
> 
> NSPK has helped Russia avoid the worst of western sanctions by allowing credit card transaction processing to continue.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> finance.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia is a commodity superpower.  Sanctions aren't going to be able to achieve Regime Change in Russia anymore than they could in Syria, Baathist Iraq, North Korea, etc.
> 
> The Russians are also playing with a way better deck of cards than any of those Countries ever were.
> 
> The Russian Ruble has already largely recovered from the sanctions shock:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How Russia rescued the ruble
> 
> 
> The Russian ruble lost nearly half its value when Russia invaded Ukraine. Since then, it has been the top-performing currency in the world.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.npr.org


Seen.  Definitely something I need to learn the details of.  

I keep seeing headlines about various EU countries looking elsewhere for natural gas, others blocking imports of this & that, the ruble tumbling in value, etc - and was just under the impression that Russia’s economy was getting withered away, rapidly.  

The fact that Russian citizens can still use Visa or MasterCard despite both of them pulling out has me surprised!


I’m glad you posted what you did.  Time to go learn about how these things _really_ work.  

Cheers


----------



## MilEME09

Have a feel good moment 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511835869577105413


----------



## Halifax Tar

MilEME09 said:


> Have a feel good moment
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511835869577105413



That's a 90s dodge ram.  Don't see many of those in Europe.


----------



## Weinie

Halifax Tar said:


> That's a 90s dodge ram.  Don't see many of those in Europe.


#MafiaStolenCarsMontrealBeenGoingOnForever.


----------



## MilEME09

This could be huge if true

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511839046326235145


----------



## Eaglelord17

Czech_pivo said:


> You know, the Russians are acting more and more like the German Nazi's of WWII, first mobile crematoriums and now this.
> 
> During World War II, *around 200,000* *ethnic Polish children* *as well as an unspecified number of children of other ethnicities were abducted from their homes *and forcibly transported to Nazi Germany for purposes of.... Germanization.
> An aim of the project was to acquire and "Germanize" children with purportedly Aryan-Nordic traits....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Kidnapping of children by Nazi Germany - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org


The Russians are acting the same way they have for over a century. The holodomor in the 30s, the purges of their society, the forced relocations post WWII of Ukrainians and replacement of them with ethnic Russians, etc.

The USSR invaded Poland the same time Germany did. Yet we never declared war on them. They were never made to account for any of the atrocities they committed and either deny their existence or celebrate them. 

We like to pretend that these are all plays out of the Nazis book, when in reality the Soviets practiced much of the same for similar reasons.


----------



## Haggis

MilEME09 said:


> This could be huge if true
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511839046326235145


I won't believe it until Soldier35 denies it.


----------



## Good2Golf

Haggis said:


> I won't believe it until Soldier35 denies it.


Or Darth Putin says it’s part of his plan as a master strategist…


----------



## Weinie

Good2Golf said:


> Or Darth Putin says it’s part of his plan as a master strategist…


Or RT says it is a extra-special part of the Special Military Operation


----------



## Haggis

Good2Golf said:


> Or Darth Putin says it’s part of his plan as a master strategist…


That's called corroboration.


----------



## Quirky

I don’t know why you people are replying to a Russian bot troll who does nothing but post propaganda.


----------



## Remius

Haggis said:


> I won't believe it until Soldier35 denies it.


Or claims that the Ukrainians are surrounded


----------



## MilEME09

For us RCEME folk, Ukrainian recovery in action 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511848376526315524


----------



## AmmoTech90

MilEME09 said:


> For us RCEME folk, Ukrainian recovery in action
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511848376526315524


I like the little "beep, beep" before he back up.  Was there a maint aspect to Unifier?


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511571664462561283
I await @Soldier35 response on how it is a lie or actual a humanitarian operation.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511765608307859457


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511571783576694786


----------



## The Bread Guy

Haggis said:


> I won't believe it until Soldier35 denies it.


Well played on multiple levels, sir ....



Quirky said:


> I don’t know why you people are replying to a Russian bot troll who does nothing but post propaganda.


Like that Mount Everest guy said, because it's there


----------



## The Bread Guy

#HesOnAssignment (via RUS independent media)








						‘Private Pivovarov is on Assignment’: How Russia Hides its Military Casualties - The Moscow Times
					

The parents of serviceman Stanislav “Stas” Pivovarov had been trying for almost two weeks to find their 21-year-old son, who was sent to Ukraine in February.  In late March, the soldier's mother, Tatyana Pivovarova, finally saw her son — as a prisoner of war in a video published by a Ukrainian...




					www.themoscowtimes.com


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511843948872015875


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511709947809181698


----------



## WLSC

Quirky said:


> I don’t know why you people are replying to a Russian bot troll who does nothing but post propaganda.


Well, I have fun readying the comment 🤓.  That’s enough of a good reason for me 👍🏻


----------



## KevinB

Quirky said:


> I don’t know why you people are replying to a Russian bot troll who does nothing but post propaganda.


Because I can’t put a bullet in his head, I will resign myself to pointing out his garbage.


----------



## SupersonicMax

KevinB said:


> Because I can’t put a bullet in his head, I will resign myself to pointing out his garbage.


As much as I am not a fan of their narrative, death threats do not have a place on this forum.


----------



## KevinB

SupersonicMax said:


> As much as I am not a fan of their narrative, death threats do not have a place on this forum.


It was simply a statement of fact.


----------



## Remius

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-military-poland-refugee-mission-1.6411131


----------



## Furniture

Remius said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-military-poland-refugee-mission-1.6411131


I bet we could convene the f@#K out of something like that...


----------



## Czech_pivo

Remius said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-military-poland-refugee-mission-1.6411131


Why the hell are we not helping Poland out by flying out Ukkies who have family/relatives here in Canada or, better yet, why has the Liberals not spun up the same sort of ‘sponsorship’ among individual Canadians to take in Ukrainians in their own home like they hyped up over and over and over again for the Syrians?
Want to help Poland out? Start taking up some of the 2.5million refugees that they are dealing with.


----------



## OldSolduer

Czech_pivo said:


> Why the hell are we not helping Poland out by flying out Ukkies who have family/relatives here in Canada or, better yet, why has the Liberals not spun up the same sort of ‘sponsorship’ among individual Canadians to take in Ukrainians in their own home like they hyped up over and over and over again for the Syrians?
> Want to help Poland out? Start taking up some of the 2.5million refugees that they are dealing with.


Because it easier to virtue signal than actually do something. 
 Am I being too frank?


----------



## Czech_pivo

OldSolduer said:


> Because it easier to virtue signal than actually do something.
> Am I being too frank?


No, you’re spot on. 
Why no pics of Trudeau at an airport handing out a new spring coat to a 7yr old Ukrainian girl landing in Calgary or Winnipeg?


----------



## YZT580

OldSolduer said:


> Because it easier to virtue signal than actually do something.
> Am I being too frank?


as soon as the paperwork is finished.  All forms must be completed on line


----------



## RangerRay

Eaglelord17 said:


> The Russians are acting the same way they have for over a century. The holodomor in the 30s, the purges of their society, the forced relocations post WWII of Ukrainians and replacement of them with ethnic Russians, etc.
> 
> The USSR invaded Poland the same time Germany did. Yet we never declared war on them. They were never made to account for any of the atrocities they committed and either deny their existence or celebrate them.
> 
> We like to pretend that these are all plays out of the Nazis book, when in reality the Soviets practiced much of the same for similar reasons.


Or when the Red Army advanced into eastern Germany. Very familiar to what you’re seeing now in Bucha and other towns vacated by the Russians.


----------



## NavyShooter

Here's where they dug the trenches...I'm not an expert on radiation...but it looks like badness.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Why the hell are we not helping Poland out by flying out Ukkies who have family/relatives here in Canada or, better yet, why has the Liberals not spun up the same sort of ‘sponsorship’ among individual Canadians to take in Ukrainians in their own home like they hyped up over and over and over again for the Syrians?
> Want to help Poland out? Start taking up some of the 2.5million refugees that they are dealing with.


DART to the rescue


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Start taking up some of the 2.5million refugees that they are dealing with.



The general idea with refugees is to accommodate them as close to their homes as possible and return them as soon as possible.


----------



## Good2Golf

YZT580 said:


> as soon as the paperwork is finished.  All forms must be completed on line


In English or French.


----------



## Prairie canuck

MilEME09 said:


> This could be huge if true
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511839046326235145


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Great article for anyone with any delusions of grandeur:









						Canadian infantry veteran enters 'living hell' in Ukraine to capture village from Russians
					

War in Ukraine against a modern army 'is totally different than in Iraq or Afghanistan. The Taliban didn’t have planes'




					nationalpost.com
				






> Hrulf said he and his troops — a mix of Canadians, Americans, British and Europeans — have all had experience fighting insurgents in such places as Afghanistan. Combat in Ukraine against a modern army is something totally different, he stressed in a video call from the unit’s base camp.
> 
> “The intensity of this conflict f—ing voids everything we know,” Hrulf said, a scarf covering most of his face, the brigade flag hanging behind him. “What makes it a living hell is the actual artillery and the sheer amount of anti-tank weapons that are being used … and the extensive use of tanks and armoured vehicles and aviation.”
> 
> “The Taliban didn’t have planes,” he added. “The Iraqi (insurgents) didn’t have planes, they didn’t have artillery.”


----------



## Remius

Brad Sallows said:


> The general idea with refugees is to accommodate them as close to their homes as possible and return them as soon as possible.


And I wonder how many families are hoping that their stays will be short and could be home as soon as possible and might not want to go half way across the world.


----------



## ueo

Halifax Tar said:


> That's a 90s dodge ram.  Don't see many of those in Europe.


Exported from Toronto via Montreal in all likelyhood.


----------



## McG

Possible Evidence of Russian Atrocities: German Intelligence Intercepts Radio Traffic Discussing the Murder of Civilians in Bucha
					

The images of the murdered civilians in Bucha shocked the world. DER SPIEGEL has learned that German intelligence intercepted radio traffic from suspected perpetrators. It appears that such atrocities were part of the strategy of Putin's army.




					www.spiegel.de


----------



## The Bread Guy

OldSolduer said:


> Because it easier to virtue signal than actually do something.
> Am I being too frank?





Czech_pivo said:


> Why the hell are we not helping Poland out by flying out Ukkies who have family/relatives here in Canada or, better yet, why has the Liberals not spun up the same sort of ‘sponsorship’ among individual Canadians to take in Ukrainians in their own home like they hyped up over and over and over again for the Syrians?
> Want to help Poland out? Start taking up some of the 2.5million refugees that they are dealing with.


There still seems to be a TON of friction even with the (allegedly) streamlined process for Ukrainians coming here.  That said, though, the Commons immigration committee is also saying "you guys seem to be processing Ukrainians WAY quicker than these other ... non-Ukrainians waiting to get in" (my comment:  maybe including some AFG terps in the latter category?)  Some would say, "hey, these Ukrainians are getting shot at in real time - let's get 'em in here NOW," while others might say, "WTF about those AFG terps _still_ waiting?!?!?!" or - in a fit of balance & middle-of-the-road'ism - "hey, Canada should be able to walk AND chew gum at the same time, no?"

Meanwhile, the latest UKR mil int tote board ...

... a cliche that sadly prove the rule ....








						Quebec dating site sees surge in men seeking Ukrainian women fleeing war
					

Quebec-based sites are being flooded with men seeking to match up with women from Ukraine, raising eyebrows among some experts.




					montreal.ctvnews.ca
				



... and a Latvian move that's sure to piss off fans of USSR 2.0/The Sequel








						Latvia plans to declare 9 May the Day of Commemoration of Victims of War in Ukraine - Baltic News Network - News from Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia
					

On Thursday, 7 April, Latvia’s Saeima Human Rights and Public Affairs Committee decided to hand the parliament the legislative draft on naming 9 May as the Day of Commemoration of Victims of War in Ukraine in Latvia.




					bnn-news.com


----------



## Remius

The Bread Guy said:


> There still seems to be a TON of friction even with the (allegedly) streamlined process for Ukrainians coming here.  That said, though, the Commons immigration committee is also saying "you guys seem to be processing Ukrainians WAY quicker than these other ... non-Ukrainians waiting to get in" (my comment:  maybe including some AFG terps in the latter category?)  Some would say, "hey, these Ukrainians are getting shot at in real time - let's get 'em in here NOW," while others might say, "WTF about those AFG terps _still_ waiting?!?!?!" or - in a fit of balance & middle-of-the-road'ism - "hey, Canada should be able to walk AND chew gum at the same time, no?"
> 
> Meanwhile, the latest UKR mil int tote board ...
> View attachment 69932
> ... a cliche that sadly prove the rule ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Quebec dating site sees surge in men seeking Ukrainian women fleeing war
> 
> 
> Quebec-based sites are being flooded with men seeking to match up with women from Ukraine, raising eyebrows among some experts.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> montreal.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ... and a Latvian move that's sure to piss off fans of USSR 2.0/The Sequel
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Latvia plans to declare 9 May the Day of Commemoration of Victims of War in Ukraine - Baltic News Network - News from Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia
> 
> 
> On Thursday, 7 April, Latvia’s Saeima Human Rights and Public Affairs Committee decided to hand the parliament the legislative draft on naming 9 May as the Day of Commemoration of Victims of War in Ukraine in Latvia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> bnn-news.com


I think the reason for the streamline (assuming it is) is that they aren’t being brought in as refugees or immigrants.  Just on temporary visit visas.  Think of it as extended travel or work visas.  I don’t think the intent is to resettle any (although I’m sure some will) as most intend on going home when they can.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Remius said:


> I think the reason for the streamline (assuming it is) is that they aren’t being brought in as refugees or immigrants.  Just on temporary visit visas.  Think of it as extended travel or work visas.  I don’t think the intent is to resettle any (although I’m sure some will) as most intend on going home when they can.


You give someone from there a chance to work here for two-three years and very few of them will want to go back home.


----------



## Quirky

Czech_pivo said:


> among individual Canadians to take in Ukrainians in their own home like they hyped up over and over and over again for the Syrians?


White Ukrainians brought it by white Canadians doesn't win you votes from your minority voting base below the 49th. Syrians pack a bigger punch.


----------



## Haggis

Czech_pivo said:


> You give someone from there a chance to work here for two-three years and very few of them will want to go back home.


Don't underestimate the pull of the home country.

Once the visas expire they are required to return home or, at least, leave Canada.


----------



## CBH99

McG said:


> Possible Evidence of Russian Atrocities: German Intelligence Intercepts Radio Traffic Discussing the Murder of Civilians in Bucha
> 
> 
> The images of the murdered civilians in Bucha shocked the world. DER SPIEGEL has learned that German intelligence intercepted radio traffic from suspected perpetrators. It appears that such atrocities were part of the strategy of Putin's army.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.spiegel.de


It’s a shame Wagner was able to recover from their loss in Syria.  Truly. 

At the time, it may have seemed like overkill if arrangements were made to kill off its management in addition to their losses in the field.  In hindsight…

Now they may as well be labelled for what they now are (even by legal definition) - a state sponsored terror organization.


----------



## OldSolduer

CBH99 said:


> It’s a shame Wagner was able to recover from their loss in Syria.  Truly.
> 
> At the time, it may have seemed like overkill if arrangements were made to kill off its management in addition to their losses in the field.  In hindsight…
> 
> Now they may as well be labelled for what they now are (even by legal definition) - a state sponsored terror organization.



Hunt them down. Prosecute vigorously.

Or use the Israeli method.


----------



## Remius

Czech_pivo said:


> You give someone from there a chance to work here for two-three years and very few of them will want to go back home.


Possibly some will.  But a lot have husbands and fathers that had to stay in UKR.   I’m sure plenty of people still have homes, land etc.


----------



## Remius

OldSolduer said:


> Hunt them down. Prosecute vigorously.
> 
> Or use the Israeli method.


Or give UKR a lot of money to hire black water or whoever to hunt them down.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Haggis said:


> Don't underestimate the pull of the home country.
> 
> Once the visas expire they are required to return home or, at least, leave Canada.


Yes, for some, but for those who are smart, they'll have a kid or two here and will then have significant ties to Canada.


----------



## Haggis

Czech_pivo said:


> Yes, for some, but for those who are smart, they'll have a kid or two here and will then have significant ties to Canada.


A large number of those fleeing Ukraine are women and children.  If  hubby is still in Ukraine, that may be hard to explain to the family.


----------



## MilEME09

New footage out of Mariupol, has been geocated to the SE portion of the city


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512060297607065602

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512066650564337675


----------



## OldSolduer

Haggis said:


> A large number of those fleeing Ukraine are women and children.  If  hubby is still in Ukraine, that may be hard to explain to the family.


Men between the ages of 18 and 60 were to remain in Ukraine


----------



## dangerboy

It looks like the CAF might be following other countries' ideas and start publishing Int updates. I think this is the first one we have issued on Twitter. 



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512079898692620300


----------



## Weinie

Czech_pivo said:


> You give someone from there a chance to work here for two-three years and very few of them will want to go back home.


You may be right. Most of the Kosovo refugees we brought over went home as soon as they could. Perhaps it was due to the fact that the Kosovar diaspora in Canada was small, especially when compared to others i.e. Italian,Ukrainian etc.


----------



## McG

CBH99 said:


> It’s a shame Wagner was able to recover from their loss in Syria.  Truly.
> 
> At the time, it may have seemed like overkill if arrangements were made to kill off its management in addition to their losses in the field.  In hindsight…
> 
> Now they may as well be labelled for what they now are (even by legal definition) - a state sponsored terror organization.


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> New footage out of Mariupol, has been geocated to the SE portion of the city
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512060297607065602
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512066650564337675


British Intelligence assessment 7 April



			https://jam-news.net/app/uploads/2022/04/photo_2022-04-07_02-44-26.jpg


----------



## Kirkhill

That would place the functional and effective BTR4 at the extreme edge of the 12th National Guard sector, on the waterfront, attacking from the rear, two T72s heading out of town, SW, towards the suburbs.

After 6 weeks 

1 Mariupol still stands
2a The National Guard unit operates BTR4s?
2b 56th Motorized Brigade is still able to contribute?
2c Other Ukrainian forces are able to infiltrate from the west?

Stalingrad

23 August 1942 – 2 February 1943[Note 1]
(5 months, 1 week and 3 days)


----------



## Skysix

Yes, the Russian offensive against Mariupol definitely evokes the German offensive against Stalingrad. Not that far away physically either in the global scheme of things. It is both sad and mystifying why the Russian command does not see the similarity.


----------



## Skysix

Remius said:


> Or give UKR a lot of money to hire black water or whoever to hunt them down.


On the one hand professional PMC's surely do not appreciate their industry being drug to such depths.

On the other hand removing competition is a time honoured method of ensuring corporate viability.

On the other hand most PMC's have a very close relationship with their home countries so expecting them to not follow their employers orders is not a viable strategy.

On the other hand how could you be sure the contracts were actually executed (no pun intended) and the targets were not removed from the target list/battlefield  simply by re-recruiting them into a different PMC.

On the other hand how do you develop an accurate and just target list.

On the other hand do you really want to create a PMC specialising in targeted extralegal executions?

I feel like Durga......


----------



## TheProfessional

Skysix said:


> On the one hand professional PMC's surely do not appreciate their industry being drug to such depths.
> 
> On the other hand removing competition is a time honoured method of ensuring corporate viability.
> 
> On the other hand most PMC's have a very close relationship with their home countries so expecting them to not follow their employers orders is not a viable strategy.
> 
> On the other hand how could you be sure the contracts were actually executed (no pun intended) and the targets were not removed from the target list/battlefield  simply by re-recruiting them into a different PMC.
> 
> On the other hand how do you develop an accurate and just target list.
> 
> On the other hand do you really want to create a PMC specialising in targeted extralegal executions?
> 
> I feel like Durga......


That's a lot of hands


----------



## McG

McG said:


> A NATO humanitarian force could secure the oblasts of Volyn, Rivne, Lviv, Ternopil, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Chernivtsi, Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Zhytomyr, Cherkassy and Kirovohard. If the force stays west of the Dnieper and away from areas physically contested by Russia, there should be no risk of coming to blows with Russian ground forces. Warn Russia not to attack the humanitarian shielding force, and as long as Russia does not attack then harm against civilians is minimized and the war does not escalate.




Okay, our hypothetical humanitarian shielding force could now be expanded to protect Kyiv, the Kyiv oblast, the Chernihiv oblast west of the 32nd easting, the Mykolaiv oblast west of the Southern Bug, and the full Cherkasy Oblast (including east of he Dnieper).
​


----------



## The Bread Guy

I'm sure this'll stop 'em ....








						UN General Assembly votes to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council
					

The UN General Assembly adopted a resolution on Thursday calling for Russia to be suspended from the Human Rights Council.




					news.un.org


----------



## Brad Sallows

Baby steps.  The heavy lift will be taking away Russia's permanent seat and giving it to India.


----------



## KevinB

Brad Sallows said:


> Baby steps.  The heavy lift will be taking away Russia's permanent seat and giving it to Ukraine.


Fixed it for you.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511995713135443969


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511863769986650113


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512024642340405253


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512030991732326401


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512156152955559941


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512144447055839242


----------



## The Bread Guy

Very specific ask from UKR DefMin (via UKR Cabinet info-machine)


> ... we need air defence systems and combat aircraft to protect our citizens and our army from missiles and air strikes.
> 
> Secondly, we need long-range weapons. These are Long-Range Artillery Missile complexes, MLRS and heavy artillery. This will keep the enemy at a distance without letting him into our cities.
> 
> Third, we need tanks and armoured vehicles to break through the occupiers' defences and liberate the occupied territories.
> 
> Fourth, we need anti-ship missiles. To destroy the enemy fleet and unblock ports on the Black Sea. After all, without ports we will not be able to trade, including food. Which will cause a global food crisis.
> 
> Fifth, we need reconnaissance and strike drones.
> 
> Moreover, there is a very important nuance.
> 
> Previously, we focused on obtaining Soviet-style weapons. This is a logical decision, because these weapons can go into battle right away, we know how to use it. It will quickly strengthen our defence in the critical period.
> 
> But the Soviet weapons we need are scarce. They are often in poor condition, because they were made 30-40 years ago. There is not enough ammunition. Under such conditions, the Soviet weapons we have received will strengthen Ukraine only for a short time.
> 
> That is why Ukraine needs to get the weapons used by NATO countries as soon as possible ...


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Blinken: for every Russian tank Ukraine has 10 anti-tank systems.



Now do AD.


----------



## Blackadder1916

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512030991732326401



Tattoos, even of Nazi symbology, are common on Russian convicts.  Didn't Putin offer amnesty to convicts who volunteered for service in the "special military operation"?  This is likely one who was caught up in that recruiting drive and then caught up again.

From a 2018 Radio Free Europe piece








						'Un-Tattoo You': Russian Convict's Swastikas To Be 'Confiscated'
					

A Russian court says two Nazi swastikas must go from an inmate's chest, and he's apparently got to do it himself.




					www.rferl.org
				





> As in many prison communities around the world, tattoos are *popular among Russian inmates*, and it is not uncommon to see Nazi symbols, including swastikas despite Russian pride at having defeated Adolf Hitler's army in what Russians call the Great Patriotic War, on convicts.
> 
> "Before 2014, no one in Russia would have thought of penalizing prisoners for having swastika tattoos," Glukhov says. "But since November 2014, the wording of Article 20.3 of Russia's Code of Administrative Offenses was changed and now you don't have to be trying to promote Nazi ideology [with the symbol], you only have to display it in order to be prosecuted."
> 
> He adds that "now you can technically be prosecuted in Russia even for showing a swastika in a historical photo from World War II."
> 
> Glukhov says it was the 2014 events in Ukraine -- the ousting of pro-Moscow President Viktor Yanukovych and Russia's takeover of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula -- that spurred the tougher federal legislation on fascist symbols.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512188669599354885


----------



## Skysix

First a disclaimer. I don't know much about the nitty gritty details of how the UN was set up. 

Why not North Korea or Pakistan? Or Israel? Not likely due to structural issues. If the concept was nuclear states have a veto all nuclear states should be permanent members with a veto.

An achieveable fix would be to remove the veto completely from everyone or at a minimum that a state cannot veto a resolution regarding their own state.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512177964020121608


----------



## Weinie

Skysix said:


> First a disclaimer. I don't know much about the nitty gritty details of how the UN was set up.
> 
> Why not North Korea or Pakistan? Or Israel? Not likely due to structural issues. If the concept was nuclear states have a veto all nuclear states should be permanent members with a veto.
> 
> *An achieveable fix would be to remove the veto completely from everyone or at a minimum that a state cannot veto a resolution regarding their own state.*


That would be vetoed.


----------



## KevinB

The USSR Permanent seat was ceded to Russian, however Russia has violated numerous agreements that went with that (Security guarantees for Ukraine, Georgia etc) , so theoretically former USSR countries could change their mind and give it to another country of the former Soviet Union.


----------



## Blackadder1916

Skysix said:


> First a disclaimer. I don't know much about the nitty gritty details of how the UN was set up.
> 
> Why not North Korea or Pakistan? Or Israel? Not likely due to structural issues. If the concept was nuclear states have a veto all nuclear states should be permanent members with a veto.
> 
> An achieveable fix would be to remove the veto completely from everyone or at a minimum that a state cannot veto a resolution regarding their own state.



It would require an amendment to the UN Charter.









						Chapter XVIII: Amendments (Articles 108-109) | United Nations
					






					www.un.org
				





> Article 108
> Amendments to the present Charter shall come into force for all Members of the United Nations when they have been adopted by a vote of two thirds of the members of the General Assembly and *ratified in accordance with their respective constitutional processes by two thirds of the Members of the United Nations, including all the permanent members of the Security Council*.


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> The USSR Permanent seat was ceded to Russian, however Russia has violated numerous agreements that went with that (Security guarantees for Ukraine, Georgia etc) , so theoretically former USSR countries could change their mind and give it to another country of the former Soviet Union.


Interesting thing is they just let Russia have the seat, there was no vote to recognize, unlike china's seat after the PRC took over.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> Interesting thing is they just let Russia have the seat, there was no vote to recognize, unlike china's seat after the PRC took over.


Ahhh you've figured out what some of us tried telling others for..... well..... ever:

The UN = Useless 🤣

The UN is the international equivalent of Question Period.  It's where everyone can go and yell about things that nobody cares about and put on a huge show.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> First a disclaimer. I don't know much about the nitty gritty details of how the UN was set up.



Allies (major partners: US, UK, France, Russia, theoretically China): "We won."


----------



## MilEME09

Update on Ben Hall from fox news who was engaged by Russians near Kyiv


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512237398125686790


----------



## RaceAddict

I don't think this has been posted yet:








						Insane drone footage shows single Ukrainian tank engaging entire Russian convoy
					

The stones on these guys...




					notthebee.com


----------



## OldSolduer

RaceAddict said:


> I don't think this has been posted yet:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Insane drone footage shows single Ukrainian tank engaging entire Russian convoy
> 
> 
> The stones on these guys...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> notthebee.com


Interesting. Cam and concealment, check. Firing onto the enemies flank, check. Was the tank shooting and moving? That I could not see.


----------



## McG

Anyone see another source for this?  



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511301343016849412


----------



## MilEME09

McG said:


> Anyone see another source for this?
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511301343016849412


I've seen atleast 6 people say they have been delivered but no direct evidence yet. Though it should be pointed out Harpoons can reach Crimea from Odessa, meaning if true the black sea fleet isn't safe in home port.


----------



## Zipperhead99

Hmmm...........









						US approves sale of fighter jets to Bulgaria amid speculation about supply of MiGs to Ukraine
					

This article was originally published by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and is reprinted with permission. The U.S. State Department has approved the




					americanmilitarynews.com


----------



## Zipperhead99

Some more open source links on the current conflict





__





						Institute for the Study of War
					

Russian proxy forces claimed to have captured central Mariupol on April 7, but Ukrainian forces retain positions in the southwest of the city. ISW cannot independently confirm this proxy claim, but we have not observed confirmed reports of fighting in




					www.understandingwar.org
				












						In Southern Ukraine, Russian Occupation Policy Takes Shape (Part One) - Jamestown
					

Russian forces invaded southern Ukraine on February 24, 2022, from two convergent directions, Crimea and Donetsk, both already occupied since 2014 (see EDM, April 6). Russia’s second invasion resulted, by mid-March 2022, in the capture of Ukraine’s entire Kherson province, a considerable part of...




					jamestown.org
				












						Moscow Using Central Asian Migrants to Fight in Ukraine - Jamestown
					

Moscow has opened a new front in its effort to find enough soldiers to fight in Ukraine (see EDM, March 16): it is ordering Central Asian immigrants in Russia who have taken Russian citizenship to appear for induction, and it is offering citizenship and high pay to other Central Asians now...




					jamestown.org


----------



## Colin Parkinson

MilEME09 said:


> I've seen atleast 6 people say they have been delivered but no direct evidence yet. Though it should be pointed out Harpoons can reach Crimea from Odessa, meaning if true the black sea fleet isn't safe in home port.


Just the possibility, reduces the freedom of movement for Russian naval vessels.


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> I've seen atleast 6 people say they have been delivered but no direct evidence yet. Though it should be pointed out Harpoons can reach Crimea from Odessa, meaning if true the black sea fleet isn't safe in home port.




The distance from Odesa to Sevastopol is 300 km.  I'm pretty sure the Harpoon launched from a truck or a stand would come up short.


Operational
range
75 nmi (139 km), ship-launched Harpoon Block I & Block IC;[_citation needed_]
124 km (67 nmi), ship-launched Harpoon Block II;[3]
120 nmi (220 km), air-launched Block I










						Harpoon (missile) - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Kirkhill

> *Russian efforts to generate replacement forces and produce new military equipment continue to face challenges. *The Ukrainian General Staff reported on April 7 that the Russian military began recruiting conscripts who have been discharged from military service since 2012 and is summoning them for a special three-month training period before deployment to active units.[2] *The General Staff additionally reported that Russian units withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine are currently residing in tent camps and face declining morale*.[3] Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on April 7 that Russian military enterprises are unable to fulfill military orders due to inflation and supply chain issues, which it attributed to the effects of western sanctions.[4] The GUR claimed it intercepted a Kremlin report on the inability of several companies to complete state contracts and discontent over the Russian Ministry of Defense forcing companies to produce orders at a loss.







__





						Institute for the Study of War
					

Russian proxy forces claimed to have captured central Mariupol on April 7, but Ukrainian forces retain positions in the southwest of the city. ISW cannot independently confirm this proxy claim, but we have not observed confirmed reports of fighting in




					www.understandingwar.org
				




From the ISW assessment - Keeping the troops isolated from the civilian population? Also heard of units being turned back to the eastern fight two days after leaving Northern Ukraine.  Another means of keeping the troops away from the civilians and of punishing failure.


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> The distance from Odesa to Sevastopol is 300 km.  I'm pretty sure the Harpoon launched from a truck or a stand would come up short.


Block III Harpoon has an OS published range of 220km
  Generally any NATO OS published range is on the short side and is at least 33% further.

I’m fairly confident a Block III could hit naval targets in Sevastopol harbor if launched from Odesa.  But I think only the USN have Block III currently.


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> The distance from Odesa to Sevastopol is 300 km.  I'm pretty sure the Harpoon launched from a truck or a stand would come up short.
> 
> 
> Operational
> range
> 75 nmi (139 km), ship-launched Harpoon Block I & Block IC;[_citation needed_]
> 124 km (67 nmi), ship-launched Harpoon Block II;[3]
> 120 nmi (220 km), air-launched Block I
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Harpoon (missile) - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org


I stand corrected, but here is the bigger question, if Ukraine has them,what's shooting them? Uk never had ground based launchers, migs wouldn't be compatible. Are we looking at a new ground based Harpoon launcher that the west has snuck to Ukraine?


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> I stand corrected, but here is the bigger question, if Ukraine has them,what's shooting them? Uk never had ground based launchers, migs wouldn't be compatible. Are we looking at a new ground based Harpoon launcher that the west has snuck to Ukraine?


UAS ?    We have been training Ukrainian Air Force personnel on some of our longer ranges UAV systems - no idea if any can launch those though.  

Frankly we should have given the Ukrainians some Tomahawks. 1000+ Nautical Miles of righteous fury is much better than 150-200.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507013809617076228


----------



## OldSolduer

MilEME09 said:


> I've seen atleast 6 people say they have been delivered but no direct evidence yet. Though it should be pointed out Harpoons can reach Crimea from Odessa, meaning if true the black sea fleet isn't safe in home port.


Similar to the Leopards being delivered to Croatia in the early 90s? Or so the story goes.....


----------



## Zipperhead99

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1507013809617076228


As they have more than their hands full right now in Ukraine, Russia is in no position to attempt feeble threats towards Finland, the Finns would probably create just as many casualties as the Ukrainians have...if not more!


----------



## Prairie canuck

The Danes had a land based Harpoon system but only up till 2003..


----------



## TacticalTea

More on UK's upcoming gifts:









						Britain to send anti-ship missiles and armoured vehicles to Ukraine
					

To ensure the protection of Ukrainian troops as Vladimir Putin's invasion ramps up, Britain will provide armoured vehicles which can withstand explosive devices, rockets and rifle fire.




					www.dailymail.co.uk


----------



## CBH99

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511571664462561283
> I await @Soldier35 response on how it is a lie or actual a humanitarian operation.


My mind can’t wrap itself around the atrocities I’ve read about in Bucha or Mariupol.  

Disgusting is a gross, gross understatement.  I’m not even sure disgusting is the right word, my mind is struggling to find a word that can describe any of it.  



Outside of the ‘stuck in the stone age’ dickwads we’ve been engaged with in Afghanistan for the last 20 years, I would have thought that social media would have people worldwide agreeing on what is acceptable and what isn’t, even in the extremes.  More or less.  

Instagram, Facebook, etc etc I thought would have united people globally in the sense that anybody with a smart phone can see through prejudices & media bias, and humanize each other.  

How the hell do people still think like this in 2022?  How the hell do people target kids intentionally?  Shooting at their limbs just for sport?  Dragging civilians out of their homes and executing them for no objective reason?

Setting up checkpoints and executing some civilians at random, while allowing others to pass?



This isn’t an out of control section or platoon.  This was a deliberate course of action planned at theatre level.  

Genuinely shocked.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

CBH99 said:


> My mind can’t wrap itself around the atrocities I’ve read about in Bucha or Mariupol.
> 
> Disgusting is a gross, gross understatement.  I’m not even sure disgusting is the right word, my mind is struggling to find a word that can describe any of it.
> 
> 
> 
> Outside of the ‘stuck in the stone age’ dickwads we’ve been engaged with in Afghanistan for the last 20 years, I would have thought that social media would have people worldwide agreeing on what is acceptable and what isn’t, even in the extremes.  More or less.
> 
> Instagram, Facebook, etc etc I thought would have united people globally in the sense that anybody with a smart phone can see through prejudices & media bias, and humanize each other.
> 
> How the hell do people still think like this in 2022?  How the hell do people target kids intentionally?  Shooting at their limbs just for sport?  Dragging civilians out of their homes and executing them for no objective reason?
> 
> Setting up checkpoints and executing some civilians at random, while allowing others to pass?
> 
> 
> 
> This isn’t an out of control section or platoon.  This was a deliberate course of action planned at theatre level.
> 
> Genuinely shocked.


This is actually well studied:





__





						Ten stages of genocide - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org
				




It's a systematic process that makes seemingly normal people capable of carrying out atrocities against a target group.

We don't know what type of indoctrination some of these groups would have undergone.

It may be individual death squads separate from the main fighting force as well.

Some units Mission may literally be "terror".


----------



## Eye In The Sky

KevinB said:


> Frankly we should have given the Ukrainians some Tomahawks. 1000+ Nautical Miles of righteous fury is much better than 150-200.



Tomahawks would have to come with the needed FC/targeting kit.  Would the west be willing to place that in theatre?


----------



## Eye In The Sky

CBH99 said:


> My mind can’t wrap itself around the atrocities I’ve read about in Bucha or Mariupol.
> 
> Disgusting is a gross, gross understatement.  I’m not even sure disgusting is the right word, my mind is struggling to find a word that can describe any of it.
> 
> 
> 
> Outside of the ‘stuck in the stone age’ dickwads we’ve been engaged with in Afghanistan for the last 20 years, I would have thought that social media would have people worldwide agreeing on what is acceptable and what isn’t, even in the extremes.  More or less.
> 
> Instagram, Facebook, etc etc I thought would have united people globally in the sense that anybody with a smart phone can see through prejudices & media bias, and humanize each other.
> 
> How the hell do people still think like this in 2022?  How the hell do people target kids intentionally?  Shooting at their limbs just for sport?  Dragging civilians out of their homes and executing them for no objective reason?
> 
> Setting up checkpoints and executing some civilians at random, while allowing others to pass?
> 
> 
> 
> This isn’t an out of control section or platoon.  This was a deliberate course of action planned at theatre level.
> 
> Genuinely shocked.



People should also be shocked and angry at the UN for doing absolutely zero about any of these events.  Nations around the world should be calling on the UN for action, or disbandment.  

I say disbandment.  The UN is a flat tire that was left on the road and is a threat to all travellers now.


----------



## RaceAddict

OldSolduer said:


> Interesting. Cam and concealment, check. Firing onto the enemies flank, check. Was the tank shooting and moving? That I could not see.



Whatever it was doing seemed extremely effective. I watched the clip a couple of time but I don't think I saw a single shot made back towards it... the advancing vehicles fired off multiple rounds, but I don't know what they were shooting at.


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> This is actually well studied:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ten stages of genocide - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.m.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It's a systematic process that makes seemingly normal people capable of carrying out atrocities against a target group.
> 
> We don't know what type of indoctrination some of these groups would have undergone.
> 
> It may be individual death squads separate from the main fighting force as well.
> 
> Some units Mission may literally be "terror".


It’s well more than some individual units.  There are multiple BTG’s bragging about it in the clear on their ‘sophisticated comms system’


----------



## The Bread Guy

In the august words of @DarthPutinKGB, Do not believe _anything_ until the Kremlin denies it (TM) - from the attached RUS MoD info-machine statement (safe PDF, official English) ....


> In order to accuse Russia of an alleged missile strike on Kramatorsk railway station, Kiev regime has posted on social media pictures of Tochka-U missile launchers that took part in "Union Courage 2022" Russian-Belarusian exercise inFebruary.
> 
> Please note, all photos published by Kiev from "Union Courage 2022" exercise show non-Russian missile systems.
> 
> Tochka-U tactical missiles whose wreckage was found near Kramatorsk railway station are used only by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
> 
> According to clarified information, the strike on Kramatorsk railway station was carried out by missile division of the Ukrainian armed forces from the area of Dobropol’e, 45 kilometres south-west of the city.
> 
> The aim of the Kiev regime's strike on the railway station in Kramatorsk was to disrupt the mass exit of residents from the city in order to use them as a "human shield" to defend Ukrainian armed forces positions, as in many other Ukrainian population centres.


More on the Kramatorsk train station strike via Google News here.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> It’s well more than some individual units.  There are multiple BTG’s bragging about it in the clear on their *‘sophisticated comms system’*


Ya mean the ones they're reportedly getting unscheduled heavy metal tunes on?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

The Bread Guy said:


> Ya mean the ones they're reportedly getting unscheduled heavy metal tunes on?


I know right? Almost as if every single HAM radio operator in the world is working against them...


----------



## Haggis

rmc_wannabe said:


> I know right? Almost as if every single HAM radio operator in the world is working against them...


(Laughs in Morse Code)


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512418155402043402


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> In the august words of @DarthPutinKGB, Do not believe _anything_ until the Kremlin denies it (TM) - from the attached RUS MoD info-machine statement (safe PDF, official English) ....
> 
> More on the Kramatorsk train station strike via Google News here.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512391257997385736


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

KevinB said:


> It’s well more than some individual units.  There are multiple BTG’s bragging about it in the clear on their ‘sophisticated comms system’


I've read of a couple of specific units mentioned.  I've also read that the Russians have Chechens running around behind the frontline whose primary role is terrorizing people.

The Chechens apparently aren't doing that much fighting and the videos they make (where they are all clean and look fresh) are for propaganda purposes.


----------



## CBH99

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I've read of a couple of specific units mentioned.  I've also read that the Russians have Chechens running around behind the frontline whose primary role is terrorizing people.
> 
> The Chechens apparently aren't doing that much fighting and the videos they make (where they are all clean and look fresh) are for propaganda purposes.


Wowa Wowa Wowa…

The Russians are cozy enough with the Chechens to have them as part of their operations?


I woke up a week ago in a parallel universe.   This just confirmed it.


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512418155402043402


They have to take at least 1 of the 2 bridges in the area intact - if not, very difficult to push across to the east bank and have any chance of rolling back the Russians in that area.


----------



## TacticalTea

CBH99 said:


> My mind can’t wrap itself around the atrocities I’ve read about in Bucha or Mariupol.
> 
> Disgusting is a gross, gross understatement.  I’m not even sure disgusting is the right word, my mind is struggling to find a word that can describe any of it.
> 
> 
> 
> Outside of the ‘stuck in the stone age’ dickwads we’ve been engaged with in Afghanistan for the last 20 years, I would have thought that social media would have people worldwide agreeing on what is acceptable and what isn’t, even in the extremes.  More or less.
> 
> Instagram, Facebook, etc etc I thought would have united people globally in the sense that anybody with a smart phone can see through prejudices & media bias, and humanize each other.
> 
> How the hell do people still think like this in 2022?  How the hell do people target kids intentionally?  Shooting at their limbs just for sport?  Dragging civilians out of their homes and executing them for no objective reason?
> 
> Setting up checkpoints and executing some civilians at random, while allowing others to pass?
> 
> 
> 
> This isn’t an out of control section or platoon.  This was a deliberate course of action planned at theatre level.
> 
> Genuinely shocked.


I'm also beyond words, hence I haven't said much about it.

I did not expect such depravity, even from Russia.

Moving forward, anyone can rightfully call me a naive fool, I suppose.


----------



## The Bread Guy

CBH99 said:


> The Russians are cozy enough with the Chechens to have them as part of their operations?


Don't forget, though, that Chechens are fighting on both sides here:   the pro-RUS Chechen fan boys (Squad Kadyrov, if you will) for Team USSR 2.0, the anti-RUS Chechens for Team John Deere Anti-tank-ists.

And if I had to bet a loonie, these elements on both sides likely have ... broader/looser understandings of the LOAC than full-time professional troops.


----------



## CBH99

Humphrey Bogart said:


> This is actually well studied:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ten stages of genocide - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.m.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It's a systematic process that makes seemingly normal people capable of carrying out atrocities against a target group.
> 
> We don't know what type of indoctrination some of these groups would have undergone.
> 
> It may be individual death squads separate from the main fighting force as well.
> 
> Some units Mission may literally be "terror".


Oh I realize all of that.  

What I’m getting at more than anything is just bewilderment that ‘professional soldiers’ (well in theory) employed by a professional military (again, in theory) can deliberately attack civilians in brutal and sadistic ways, and are more or less congratulated rather than punished.  

And that many of these troops have social media and can see the rest of the world isn’t like this, yet still do it.  


I hope all those people who would throw us under the bus for engaging a target after observing them for 12+ hours are realizing just how professional NATO really is.


----------



## CBH99

“Why did you think you can have a nice life?”

Rough translation.  Left in Bucha by Russian soldiers prior to leaving.


----------



## Posthumane

CBH99 said:


> And that many of these troops have social media and can see the rest of the world isn’t like this, yet still do it.


Thing is, most of the troops do not currently have access to any social media, unless they can steal a ukranian phone and sneak away somewhere with it. They have been isolated from the general population for several months, denied cell phones, and fed bad info by their commanders. Their families back home for the most part only have access now to state controlled news outlets (since all the ones that were against the war either stopped broadcasting or were shut down). Western social media sites are blocked, so unless a household has someone savvy enough to set up a VPN (which are illegal in Russia, so you can't just use a commercial one), then they are in an information bubble. Not to mention that much of the Russian army is from the poorer rural areas of Russia, and the idea that Ukr has paved roads and flush toilets is news to them.


----------



## Blackadder1916

Haggis said:


> (Laughs in Morse Code)



.... ..    .... ..​


----------



## Mills Bomb

I'm also looking at all the atrocities unfold and can't really grasp how the world can let this happen either. But then I look around and it becomes pretty obvious (At least to me) why it's being tolerated.

The facts are that unfortunately as a society overwhelmingly we just don't really care to stop it. There is only a small number of us who would actually be willing to do anything. The vast majority of Canadian society might set their Facebook display picture to a Ukrainian flag for a couple days but that's about it. Our military is out of shape, aging, under trained with courses continually cut short or cancelled, we are also under equipped-- we can't even fix something as simple as a 20+ year old tac-vest. And again, literally nobody cares, except for a small number of us who actually serve in the military. Canadian's don't even insist on meeting our NATO commitments of 2% let alone actually solving these problems. If you ask the average young Canadian about defence or how the Ukraine tragedy could have been avoided, I suspect they would be overwhelmingly clueless and uninterested. And that's perhaps how we got here. I don't think other Western countries are all that different either.

I don't see any answers or solutions on the horizon. What we're witnessing is simply the realities of our society and of doing nothing. I'm not necessarily saying we should or shouldn't be involved, we would really have to weigh our options before getting involved in another European war in a significant way, but it's a mute point because our globally insignificant military strength means that while these horrors unfold we just sit back and watch. It's pointless to debate what we should be doing when we don't really have anything or anyone to do it with. It just really sucks for those of us who would like to see a more active approach to defence and try to prevent a replay of the second world war, but what can we really do? Canadian and Western voters made these choices, they want social progress, not better defence, and that isn't meant to be partisan as no party really has any great plan to do things much differently. On a small positive note, at least we did help the UA with some training, so while we don't exactly have a lot to offer, something small is always better than nothing.

Maybe someday things will take a turn in the other direction. Maybe eventually Canadian's will get tried of seeing families shot and blown up and take things a bit more seriously, but we just aren't at that new era yet, and it may not even be during our lifetimes.


----------



## Quirky

Mills Bomb said:


> Maybe someday things will take a turn in the other direction. Maybe eventually Canadian's will get tried of seeing families shot and blown up and take things a bit more seriously, but we just aren't at that new era yet, and it may not even be during our lifetimes.



Until Canada is kicked out of NATO for being utterly useless as an alliance member nothing will happen. Canadians are just happy living in fortress north america and have their head in the sand being oblivious to the world. China or Russia (what will be left of it) would need to start issuing threats of "special military operations" into our mainland. Until then Canadians are in la-la land and think they are perfectly safe protected by the US and our geography. Canada is seen as a place to live to escape war because war will never happen on its soil.


----------



## TheProfessional

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I've read of a couple of specific units mentioned.  I've also read that the Russians have Chechens running around behind the frontline whose primary role is terrorizing people.
> 
> The Chechens apparently aren't doing that much fighting and the videos they make (where they are all clean and look fresh) are for propaganda purposes.


The khadirovites are pure scum. I hope they get entirety anihilated.


Mills Bomb said:


> I'm also looking at all the atrocities unfold and can't really grasp how the world can let this happen either. But then I look around and it becomes pretty obvious (At least to me) why it's being tolerated.
> 
> The facts are that unfortunately as a society overwhelmingly we just don't really care to stop it. There is only a small number of us who would actually be willing to do anything. The vast majority of Canadian society might set their Facebook display picture to a Ukrainian flag for a couple days but that's about it. Our military is out of shape, aging, under trained with courses continually cut short or cancelled, we are also under equipped-- we can't even fix something as simple as a 20+ year old tac-vest. And again, literally nobody cares, except for a small number of us who actually serve in the military. Canadian's don't even insist on meeting our NATO commitments of 2% let alone actually solving these problems. If you ask the average young Canadian about defence or how the Ukraine tragedy could have been avoided, I suspect they would be overwhelmingly clueless and uninterested. And that's perhaps how we got here. I don't think other Western countries are all that different either.
> 
> I don't see any answers or solutions on the horizon. What we're witnessing is simply the realities of our society and of doing nothing. I'm not necessarily saying we should or shouldn't be involved, we would really have to weigh our options before getting involved in another European war in a significant way, but it's a mute point because our globally insignificant military strength means that while these horrors unfold we just sit back and watch. It's pointless to debate what we should be doing when we don't really have anything or anyone to do it with. It just really sucks for those of us who would like to see a more active approach to defence and try to prevent a replay of the second world war, but what can we really do? Canadian and Western voters made these choices, they want social progress, not better defence, and that isn't meant to be partisan as no party really has any great plan to do things much differently. On a small positive note, at least we did help the UA with some training, so while we don't exactly have a lot to offer, something small is always better than nothing.
> 
> Maybe someday things will take a turn in the other direction. Maybe eventually Canadian's will get tried of seeing families shot and blown up and take things a bit more seriously, but we just aren't at that new era yet, and it may not even be during our lifetimes.


I'd like to think that the training that thousands of UA troops have received from OP Unifier over the years has made a difference in this war.


----------



## Booter

KevinB said:


> It’s well more than some individual units.  There are multiple BTG’s bragging about it in the clear on their ‘sophisticated comms system’


There’s a story a few pages back where a unit accused of crimes has been rotated back into service without the usual decompression cycle- that’s how you breed capacity for atrocity. They know what they’re doing. Even with deniability.


----------



## Brad Sallows

*>The General Staff additionally reported that Russian units withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine are currently residing in tent camps and face declining morale*.

"Luxury! We used to dream o' livin' in tent camps.  All we 'ad was a radioactive 'ole in the ground."


----------



## Gunnar

TacticalTea said:


> Moving forward, anyone can rightfully call me a naive fool, I suppose.


Being a naive fool isn’t always bad.  It means that that kind of depravity is outside your normal imagination, and suggests you might be the elusive Good Person(TM).  And now you know, and YOU didn’t have to learn it the hard way...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Brad Sallows said:


> *>The General Staff additionally reported that Russian units withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine are currently residing in tent camps and face declining morale*.
> 
> "Luxury! We used to dream o' livin' in tent camps.  All we 'ad was a radioactive 'ole in the ground."


Could.  Not.  Resist.  

Meanwhile, parts of a society reverting to type?








						Soviet-Style Denunciations On The Rise As Russian Society Confronts Ukraine War
					

An English teacher in Penza is facing prosecution after students recorded her criticizing Russia's war in Ukraine. Teachers, activists, and others have increasingly been targeted by denunciations – often anonymous – that remind some of the darkest repressions under Soviet dictator Josef Stalin.




					www.rferl.org


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> The artillery of Russia and the Servicemen of the People's Militia began to use propaganda shells in Mariupol at the Azovstal combine. 122-mm propaganda shells 1AZH instead of the warhead are filled with passes and leaflets for the voluntary surrender of servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Propaganda leaflets are placed in steel half-cylinders of shells.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed by the strikes of high-precision weapons of Russia. The coordinates of the location of the S-300 air defense system of Ukraine were established with the help of electronic intelligence
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Slovak media reported that Slovakia handed over to Ukraine as a military aid its only division of the Soviet-made S-300PMU anti-aircraft missile system. The transfer of the S-300PMU SAM occurred on the condition that the Western Allies would supply new air defense systems as compensation. According to media reports, instead of the C-300s that have left Ukraine, American Patriot air defense systems will take over combat duty in Slovakia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The United States announced the supply of new Switchblade kamikaze drones to Ukraine. Despite the jubilation that has gripped individual representatives of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russian air defense, which was confirmed by the practice of special operations in Ukraine, confidently strikes the UAV of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Switchblade drone is available in two versions, anti-personnel and anti-tank.


@Soldier35  It looks like Russia is finally starting to take Ukraine seriously, which is good to see from the Russian perspective, lest you keep losing young boys and men in the illegal invasion. 

In other good news for Russia, it seems that the president himself is particularly keen to study what is giving Ukraine such success…


----------



## GR66

You knew if was eventually going to happen...

From Task & Purpose:  
‘Red Dawn’ hits Ukraine after destroyed Russian armor gets tagged with ‘Wolverines’​


----------



## OldSolduer

The Bread Guy said:


> Could.  Not.  Resist.
> View attachment 69965
> Meanwhile, parts of a society reverting to type?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Soviet-Style Denunciations On The Rise As Russian Society Confronts Ukraine War
> 
> 
> An English teacher in Penza is facing prosecution after students recorded her criticizing Russia's war in Ukraine. Teachers, activists, and others have increasingly been targeted by denunciations – often anonymous – that remind some of the darkest repressions under Soviet dictator Josef Stalin.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rferl.org


Russia dominated the USSR and to be honest Russia has a long history of snitching, ratting and denunciation of people (Kruschev?) when things go to sh!t.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Propaganda leaflets are placed in steel half-cylinders of shells.



Good.  Never enough toilet paper and kindling at the front.


----------



## OldSolduer

GR66 said:


> You knew if was eventually going to happen...
> 
> From Task & Purpose:
> ‘Red Dawn’ hits Ukraine after destroyed Russian armor gets tagged with ‘Wolverines’​


Patrick Swayze Wolverines not the new ones.


----------



## TacticalTea

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512170692942475269
LGen Leslie


----------



## The Bread Guy

OldSolduer said:


> Patrick Swayze Wolverines not the new ones.


#RedDawnClassic


----------



## The Bread Guy

Soldier35 said:


> The artillery of Russia and the Servicemen of the People's Militia began to use propaganda shells in Mariupol at the Azovstal combine. 122-mm propaganda shells 1AZH instead of the warhead are filled with passes and leaflets for the voluntary surrender of servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Propaganda leaflets are placed in steel half-cylinders of shells ...


Good to know some of your colleagues will be taking home a souvenir from Ukraine ....





						ShieldSquare Captcha
					






					www.kmu.gov.ua


----------



## Haggis

TacticalTea said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512170692942475269
> LGen Leslie


Former Liberal MP who was never appointed as MND.  Pot-Kettle-Black?


----------



## MilEME09

Haggis said:


> Former Liberal MP who was never appointed as MND.  Pot-Kettle-Black?


Maybe but he has a point, we can't even spend what we have because of red tape and bureaucrats.

In other news


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512484732591878148


----------



## Czech_pivo

Haggis said:


> Former Liberal MP who was never appointed as MND.  Pot-Kettle-Black?


A former Colonel was appointed over a former a Lt General, man, that’s gotta hurt.


----------



## Haggis

Czech_pivo said:


> A former Colonel was appointed over a former a Lt General, man, that’s gotta hurt.


A former* LCol *who served under the former LGen.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512439627025682435


----------



## TacticalTea

Haggis said:


> Former Liberal MP who was never appointed as MND.  Pot-Kettle-Black?


Hardly a burn, there. That's probably why he didn't run for a second election. I guess his honest, practical approach was not favourably received at the LPC politburo.


----------



## FJAG

Czech_pivo said:


> A former Colonel was appointed over a former a Lt General, man, that’s gotta hurt.


A former LCol who was much easier to manipulate into doing nothing of any consequence within the department.

🍻


----------



## MilEME09

Back on topic, long term we are going to exhaust Soviet era stocks pretty quickly, and they will not give Ukrainian forces much of an edge. I think we need to look at more systems that can be trained quickly to give them such as armoured vehicles, UAVs, artillery systems. Especially long range precision weapons that can help hit fuel and ammo dumps.


----------



## Zipperhead99

Brad Sallows said:


> Now do AD.


And it shall be done (granted, more is required)









						Patriot missile battery heading to Slovakia amid Ukraine invasion response
					

The Patriot system will replace Slovakia's S-300, which it will send to Ukraine.




					www.militarytimes.com


----------



## Zipperhead99

and another "elite" Russian unit reportedly turned to ash









						Photos: Ukraine forces say they defeated 'elite' Russian armored brigade
					

Ukrainian forces claimed on Thursday that they had defeated an "elite" Russian armored brigade during a recent battle. “38th OMSBr zs rf and its scrap




					americanmilitarynews.com


----------



## Zipperhead99

And ISW daily and weekly summaries






						Institute for the Study of War
					

Ukrainian forces retain control of defensive positions in eastern and southwestern Mariupol, despite Russian claims to have captured most of the city. ISW was able to confirm the specific locations of ongoing Russian assaults on April 8 for the first




					www.understandingwar.org
				









						Institute for the Study of War
					

Ukraine will not resume negotiations with Russia until Ukrainian and guarantor state negotiators finalize meaningful security guarantees for Ukraine. Russian atrocities in Ukraine and Kremlin efforts to falsely blame Ukraine for these atrocities have




					www.understandingwar.org


----------



## KevinB

Britain today announced on the BBC it was sending loitering munitions over to Ukraine as well as more AD and other assets.


----------



## armrdsoul77

The Bread Guy said:


> Meanwhile, parts of a society reverting to type?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Soviet-Style Denunciations On The Rise As Russian Society Confronts Ukraine War
> 
> 
> An English teacher in Penza is facing prosecution after students recorded her criticizing Russia's war in Ukraine. Teachers, activists, and others have increasingly been targeted by denunciations – often anonymous – that remind some of the darkest repressions under Soviet dictator Josef Stalin.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rferl.org


----------



## TacticalTea

Zipperhead99 said:


> And it shall be done (granted, more is required)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Patriot missile battery heading to Slovakia amid Ukraine invasion response
> 
> 
> The Patriot system will replace Slovakia's S-300, which it will send to Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.militarytimes.com


Wow! This is incredible.

We're finally seeing that real equipment roll in and I'm lovin' it!


----------



## Zipperhead99

TacticalTea said:


> Wow! This is incredible.
> 
> We're finally seeing that real equipment roll in and I'm lovin' it!


And, hopefully, more to come.  Looks like Poland is still trying to figure out a way to get MiG-29s to Ukraine









						Poland considering Italian, Korean alternatives to backfill MiG-29s - Breaking Defense
					

The F-16 deal Poland sought appears dead, but Warsaw continues to entertain offers for other jets so it can send MiG-29s to Ukraine. The big question is whether they are willing to pay for them or not.




					breakingdefense.com


----------



## MilEME09

An interesting related piece


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512298530462855174


----------



## Czech_pivo

Zipperhead99 said:


> And, hopefully, more to come.  Looks like Poland is still trying to figure out a way to get MiG-29s to Ukraine
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Poland considering Italian, Korean alternatives to backfill MiG-29s - Breaking Defense
> 
> 
> The F-16 deal Poland sought appears dead, but Warsaw continues to entertain offers for other jets so it can send MiG-29s to Ukraine. The big question is whether they are willing to pay for them or not.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> breakingdefense.com


Wait, why don’t we try to offload the used Aussie F18’s to Poland?


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Czech_pivo said:


> Wait, why don’t we try to offload the used Aussie F18’s to Poland?


They are to smart to want them?


----------



## Haggis

Czech_pivo said:


> Wait, why don’t we try to offload the used Aussie F18’s to Poland?


Because then we'd be without any fighters at all.... forever.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Britain today announced on the BBC it was sending loitering munitions over to Ukraine as well as more AD and other assets.


Yup - this from the government's info-machine with a few more details


> ... The new support will include:
> 
> More than 800 more NLAW anti-tank missiles
> Additional Javelin anti-tank systems
> Additional loitering munitions
> Additional Starstreak air defence systems
> Additional non-lethal aid including ballistic helmets, body armour and night vision goggles ...


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Yup - this from the government's info-machine with a few more details


Man, sounds like the Brits have all this extra munitions and equipment in case they ever went to war, what good planning and foresight they must have. We should convene a meeting to discuss this.


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> Man, sounds like the Brits have all this extra munitions and equipment in case they ever went to war, what good planning and foresight they must have. We should convene a meeting to discuss this.


I bet BAE and GDUK are working round the clock to produce more.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512791528607031303


----------



## brihard

There are interesting implications there- FVEY intel allows GBR to consider it safe enough for the PM to physically travel to the capital of a country being invaded by Russia. Truly a mark of how thoroughly Russian capabilities in that theatre have been degraded.

I have to imagine the Hereford lads were a little twitchy at this one though.


----------



## The Bread Guy

brihard said:


> There are interesting implications there- FVEY intel allows GBR to consider it safe enough for the PM to physically travel to the capital of a country being invaded by Russia. Truly a mark of how thoroughly Russian capabilities in that theatre have been degraded.
> 
> I have to imagine the Hereford lads were a little twitchy at this one though.


All sorts of embassies seem to be staffing up again, too, so I'm _guessing _many people's risk assessments are leaning toward "nobody seems to be threatening Kyiv, so should be OK for us, too."


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512807635422228484


----------



## Kirkhill

Zipperhead99 said:


> And, hopefully, more to come.  Looks like Poland is still trying to figure out a way to get MiG-29s to Ukraine
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Poland considering Italian, Korean alternatives to backfill MiG-29s - Breaking Defense
> 
> 
> The F-16 deal Poland sought appears dead, but Warsaw continues to entertain offers for other jets so it can send MiG-29s to Ukraine. The big question is whether they are willing to pay for them or not.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> breakingdefense.com



A couple of possibilities - Poland gets the Italian fighters donated  or Poland leases/buys fighters with Foreign Aid from countries like Canada, the UK, Sweden, Korea itself.

Meanwhile, the US stretches the ties that bind NATO and Europe to the US just that little bit more.


----------



## MilEME09

Geolocated to the SW edge of the port area of Mariupol. Russia still having great difficulties making progress in the port area of the city.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512809542375067650


----------



## GR66

brihard said:


> There are interesting implications there- FVEY intel allows GBR to consider it safe enough for the PM to physically travel to the capital of a country being invaded by Russia. Truly a mark of how thoroughly Russian capabilities in that theatre have been degraded.
> 
> I have to imagine the Hereford lads were a little twitchy at this one though.


I think you've read the heading on the tweet incorrectly...

"Embassy of Ukraine to the UK" @UKREmbLondon

The meeting was possibly at the Ukrainian embassy in London?  It was maybe Zelinsky that traveled to the UK?

[edited to add uncertainty as there is nothing specific in the tweet other than the heading to confirm where the meeting was]


----------



## Haggis

GR66 said:


> I think you've read the heading on the tweet incorrectly...
> 
> "Embassy of Ukraine to the UK" @UKREmbLondon
> 
> The meeting was apparently at the Ukrainian embassy in London.  It was Zelinsky that traveled to the UK.


That's incorrect.  If you look at the Tweet and accompanying comments, Johnson met the Ukrainian President in Kyiv during an unannounced visit.


----------



## brihard

GR66 said:


> I think you've read the heading on the tweet incorrectly...
> 
> "Embassy of Ukraine to the UK" @UKREmbLondon
> 
> The meeting was possibly at the Ukrainian embassy in London?  It was maybe Zelinsky that traveled to the UK?
> 
> [edited to add uncertainty as there is nothing specific in the tweet other than the heading to confirm where the meeting was]


No, it’s been widely reported today that Johnson visited Kyiv.


----------



## GR66

brihard said:


> No, it’s been widely reported today that Johnson visited Kyiv.


My most sincere and humble apologies!


----------



## MilEME09

Wait....what









						Polish ex-minister quoted saying Putin offered to divide Ukraine with Poland
					

Poland's parliamentary speaker, Radoslaw Sikorski, has been quoted as saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed to Poland's then leader in 2008 that they divide Ukraine between themselves.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## brihard

GR66 said:


> My most sincere and humble apologies!


All good, easy mistake to make.


----------



## Kirkhill

Is there nothing that they could divest to Ukraine?  Or that Canada could secure for that matter?

The Reapers going to "another agency" might be a good place to start.









						Air Force May Divest 1,468 Aircraft over Five Years | Air & Space Forces Magazine
					

USAF may be planning to divest 1,468 aircraft over five years while buying just 467, for net reduction of more than 1,000 aircraft, said Sen. Fischer.




					www.airforcemag.com


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> Is there nothing that they could divest to Ukraine?  Or that Canada could secure for that matter?
> 
> The Reapers going to "another agency" might be a good place to start.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Air Force May Divest 1,468 Aircraft over Five Years | Air & Space Forces Magazine
> 
> 
> USAF may be planning to divest 1,468 aircraft over five years while buying just 467, for net reduction of more than 1,000 aircraft, said Sen. Fischer.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.airforcemag.com


Weren't we going to destroy our entire stock of CRV-7 rockets? Could we not send those?


----------



## brihard

Quite a few reports coming out today that the UK is sending anti ship missiles, presumably Harpoons. No word on launch platform, but I don’t imagine they’re commit the missiles without a viable launch system.

But if true. This could get very expensive for the Black Sea fleet, particularly given NATO ISR assistance to Ukraine.


----------



## MilEME09

brihard said:


> Quite a few reports coming out today that the UK is sending anti ship missiles, presumably Harpoons. No word on launch platform, but I don’t imagine they’re commit the missiles without a viable launch system.
> 
> But if true. This could get very expensive for the Black Sea fleet, particularly given NATO ISR assistance to Ukraine.



Could be the Sea Spear which is made in the UK and has ground based launchers


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512837867818602501


----------



## MilEME09

Oh Russia....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512835736206249989


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> Could be the Sea Spear which is made in the UK and has ground based launchers
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512837867818602501


Hmm… You could be right. Sea Spear seems small though- good to kill lots of small boats, at least that’s my understanding of the intent of that variant to Brimstone. It’s also short range.

That said there may be deliberate vague senses on this subject. Maybe the Brit’s are sending something bigger and better at actually killing ships, and the good guys are content to let Ivan find out the hard way.


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> Wait....what
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Polish ex-minister quoted saying Putin offered to divide Ukraine with Poland
> 
> 
> Poland's parliamentary speaker, Radoslaw Sikorski, has been quoted as saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed to Poland's then leader in 2008 that they divide Ukraine between themselves.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


This is old news, came out about 10yrs ago.


----------



## MilEME09

brihard said:


> Hmm… You could be right. Sea Spear seems small though- good to kill lots of small boats, at least that’s my understanding of the intent of that variant to Brimstone. It’s also short range.
> 
> That said there may be deliberate vague senses on this subject. Maybe the Brit’s are sending something bigger and better at actually killing ships, and the good guys are content to let Ivan find out the hard way.


At the very least it would deter any landings but long range would be better to hit the black sea fleet, especially the destroyers launching cruise missiles into Ukraine


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512836749629792258


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> Oh Russia....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512835736206249989


Somewhere in the depths of the RUS info-machine ....


----------



## Kirkhill

> Boris Johnson promises armoured vehicles and more missiles in secret meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky​Britain will send new package of military and financial aid to Ukraine after Prime Minister Johnson makes surprise visit to Kyiv
> 
> ByTony Diver, WHITEHALL CORRESPONDENT9 April 2022 • 7:01pm
> 
> Boris Johnson is greeted by Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv on Saturday CREDIT: Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/REUTERS
> 
> Boris Johnson made a secret visit to Ukraine on Saturday to offer Volodymyr Zelensky a new aid package including armoured vehicles and anti-ship missiles and praise the “invincible heroism and courage of the Ukrainian people”.
> The Prime Minister used the visit to promise Ukraine 120 new armoured vehicles and new anti-ship missile systems, which could be used to fight off Russian forces in Mariupol, on Ukraine’s south coast.
> Mr Johnson's trip was not announced to the media in advance, and revealed only when Ukraine’s embassy in the UK tweeted a photo of the two men with the caption: “Surprise”.
> He is understood to have travelled to Poland under the cover of darkness on Friday night, then onwards to Kyiv with just one aide from his private office, in addition to security personnel.
> Downing Street said the trip had been arranged as a “show of solidarity with the Ukrainian people” and that the two men discussed “a new package of financial and military aid” and Britain’s “long-term support”.





> Mr Zelensky with Mr Johnson made a secret trip in a 'show of solidarity' with Ukraine, No 10 said CREDIT: Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/REUTERS
> The visit was planned last week in secrecy, with only around half a dozen officials aware it was taking place.
> 
> 
> Despite the Russian military’s declaration that it had given up trying to capture Kyiv and would now focus on its stronghold in the east of Ukraine, troops have shelled the city’s suburbs within the past week.
> Mr Johnson also promised to guarantee a further £385 million of World Bank lending to Ukraine, subject to parliamentary approval.
> Speaking in a recorded message with Mr Zelensky from Kyiv on Saturday night, Mr Johnson said: “I think that the Ukrainians have shown the courage of a lion, and you Volodymyr have given the roar of that lion.”
> He added that the UK would “supply the equipment, the technology, the know-how, the intelligence, so that Ukraine will never be invaded again”, and pledged to “liberalise trade with Ukraine as we go forward”.
> “Having been here in Kyiv for just a few hours, I have no doubt [...] that an independent sovereign Ukraine will rise again thanks above all to the heroism, the courage of the people of Ukraine,” he said. “Thank you very much and _slava Ukraini.”_
> Earlier, Mr Johnson had said: “It is a privilege to be able to travel to Ukraine and meet President Zelensky in person in Kyiv today.
> “Ukraine has defied the odds and pushed back Russian forces from the gates of Kyiv, achieving the greatest feat of arms of the 21st century.
> “It is because of President Zelensky’s resolute leadership and the invincible heroism and courage of the Ukrainian people that Putin’s monstrous aims are being thwarted.
> “I made clear today that the United Kingdom stands unwaveringly with them in this ongoing fight, and we are in it for the long run.
> *“We are stepping up our own military and economic support and convening a global alliance to bring this tragedy to an end, and ensure Ukraine survives and thrives as a free and sovereign nation.”*
> Mr Zelensky hailed Mr Johnson as "one of the most principled opponents of the Russian invasion".
> 
> Writing after their meeting, Mr Zelensky said: "The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson is one of the most principled opponents of the Russian invasion, a leader in sanctions pressure on Russia and defense support of Ukraine. Welcome to Kyiv my friend."
> Andriy Sybiha, the deputy head of the Ukrainian president's office, said on Facebook: "The UK is the leader in defence support for Ukraine. The leader in the anti-war coalition. The leader in sanctions against the Russian aggressor."
> The Ukrainian defence ministry suggested that other Western countries should follow Mr Johnson’s lead in visiting Mr Zelensky and offering more aid.
> “We welcome Boris Johnson in Kyiv, the first G7 leader to arrive in Ukraine since the beginning of the large-scale war,” it said.
> “We are strengthening our union of democracies. Be brave, like Boris. Be brave, like Ukraine.”
> The meeting came after the UK agreed to send Mastiff armoured vehicles to support the Ukrainian military – a step beyond the anti-air and anti-tank missiles that have been provided thus far.
> 
> British Mastiff armoured vehicles will be sent to the Ukrainian military
> Friday’s package of lethal aid included Starstreak anti-aircraft missiles, another 800 anti-tank missiles, and “loitering munitions”





> Mr Johnson’s visit came after a similar meeting between Mr Zelensky and Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, earlier this week.
> 
> *On Saturday, Western allies including Canada and the European Commission met for a donor conference in Warsaw, where they pledged a combined £7.6 million in donations, loans and grants to support refugees.
> Ms Von der Leyen, who co-hosted the event with Justin Trudeau, *the Canadian prime minister, said: “We stand by your side, be it now in the times of war, be it with the refugees, but most importantly after this war has been won by Ukraine, for the time for reconstruction and rebuilding the country.”
> The European Commission estimates that more than four million people have now fled Ukraine to seek shelter in EU countries, while 6.5 million people have fled their homes but remain inside Ukraine.











						Boris Johnson promises armoured vehicles and more missiles in secret meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky
					

Britain will send new package of military and financial aid to Ukraine after Prime Minister Johnson makes surprise visit to Kyiv




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				




Apparently Boris can contribute and convene  concurrently.

Justin and Ursula managed to convene.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512841964193869828


----------



## Kirkhill

https://www.seaforces.org/wpnsys/SURFACE/
		


STANFLEX-modules.htm








						StanFlex - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




I understand there is some concern being expressed about how the Ukrainians will launch the Harpoons without launchers.  Just ask the Danes if necessary.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512882404435939336


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> At the very least it would deter any landings but long range would be better to hit the black sea fleet, especially the destroyers launching cruise missiles into Ukraine
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512836749629792258


I’d love to know what the cost to purchase all the equipment would be on the open market.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> View attachment 69974
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Boris Johnson promises armoured vehicles and more missiles in secret meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky
> 
> 
> Britain will send new package of military and financial aid to Ukraine after Prime Minister Johnson makes surprise visit to Kyiv
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.telegraph.co.uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Apparently Boris can contribute and convene  concurrently.
> 
> Justin and Ursula managed to convene.



Apparently Boris can contribute and convene concurrently.

Justin and Ursula managed to convene.

*So to recap: Brits can walk and chew gum, Canada and EU can chew gum.*


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> View attachment 69975View attachment 69976
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.seaforces.org/wpnsys/SURFACE/
> 
> 
> 
> STANFLEX-modules.htm
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> StanFlex - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I understand there is some concern being expressed about how the Ukrainians will launch the Harpoons without launchers.  Just ask the Danes if necessary.


Gee, isn't exactly what the USN tried and failed to achieve with their LCS fleet?


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> Gee, isn't exactly what the USN tried and failed to achieve with their LCS fleet?



Wrong engineers I guess.  Or wrong sailors.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512897668246384640


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512897668246384640


That's what you get from an actor becoming prez and making his chief of staff a former movie producer - nothing but the slickest.  They're still doing good in the info-fight.

Also interesting to see how little traffic there is - veh or pedestrian - where they happen to film doing walkabout.


----------



## MilEME09

Unconfirmed still but bold if true


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512912041828397060


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512839384197906436


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512805166512226305


----------



## WLSC

The Bread Guy said:


> That's what you get from an good actor becoming prez and making his chief of staff a former movie producer - nothing but the slickest. They're still doing good in the info-fight.


FTFY 😀


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512911246957420555
Interesting explanation on why Russians are assholes.


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> Wrong engineers I guess.  Or wrong sailors.


Engineers and shipwrights. Wrong defense contractors padding thier pockets as well.


----------



## Skysix

MilEME09 said:


> Unconfirmed still but bold if true
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512912041828397060


An air raid deep into Russia particularly Moscow - like the Berlin bombing of June 7 1940 and the Doolittle raid of April 18 1942 - would have HUGE morale implications in both Russia and Ukraine.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Another western leader drops by ...








						Austrian Chancellor visits Bucha
					

Federal Chancellor of Austria Karl Negammer visited Bucha, Head of Kyiv Regional Military Administration Oleksandr Pavliuk has reported.




					en.interfax.com.ua


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> Engineers and shipwrights. Wrong defense contractors padding thier pockets as well.



Although I do think there was at least an element of the USN that wanted Blue Water frigates and something that looked traditional.  I find it interesting that the lead in to the exercise were the Aussie cats that spawned the Spearhead JHSVs and that the Aussie tri-hulls are still considered to be viable in the Indo-Pacific islands.   The littorals for which they were designed.

The Monohull, which I am convinced was a sop to the Blue Water community, is the one that has constantly suffered from mechanical and structural issues.

It seems obvious to me that a multi-hull ferry based design is going to have fewer stability issues, and thus be more easily adapted to different loads, than a high speed monohull that needs to be finely balanced.

- OFF TOPIC ALERT -


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512931618096398341

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512888400818446337


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512855187110739972

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512855779585499142
Large Russian Convoys on the move in Kharkiv Oblast.  The next phase of this war is about to unfold.


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tzshbu


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512855187110739972
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512855779585499142
> Large Russian Convoys on the move in Kharkiv Oblast.  The next phase of this war is about to unfold.


I think we are still awhile away from an attempted offensive. Those units were so beat up they are likely being reorganized into ad hoc BTGs. If they rush to fast their lack of cohesion will squash them. 

ISW also estimates it would be several months before the reservists and conscripts called up will be usable. They may take Mariupol by may 9th, but nothing else.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> I think we are still awhile away from an attempted offensive. Those units were so beat up they are likely being reorganized into ad hoc BTGs. If they rush to fast their lack of cohesion will squash them.
> 
> ISW also estimates it would be several months before the reservists and conscripts called up will be usable. They may take Mariupol by may 9th, but nothing else.


I think the offensive will be centered around collapsing the pocket of the Ukrainian Army sitting in Donbass in the East. 

It will be more limited in nature.  I also suspect Ukraine will focus on pushing the Russians back across the Dniepr in Kherson.  Kherson could very easily become Mariupol 2.0 for the civilian population.


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/tzuyax


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I think the offensive will be centered around collapsing the pocket of the Ukrainian Army sitting in Donbass in the East.
> 
> It will be more limited in nature.  I also suspect Ukraine will focus on pushing the Russians back across the Dniepr in Kherson.  Kherson could very easily become Mariupol 2.0 for the civilian population.




__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u02ie3


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u02ie3


Reports from a couple sources say the fighting is as close as 10km from Kherson now as of yesterday. I think by this time next week the 2nd battle of Kherson will be unfolding.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512778674579423235

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512919571665231874


----------



## Skysix

Anyone know which unit this flag is from?


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> Reports from a couple sources say the fighting is as close as 10km from Kherson now as of yesterday. I think by this time next week the 2nd battle of Kherson will be unfolding.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512778674579423235


What I see happening is Russia pulling back across the river and demoing the bridge.  

If I was Russia, I would personally be thinking that holding in to Kherson City is more trouble than it's worth, Militarily, ATM.  

The River is almost half a NM wide in most places so a bridging effort would be a significant undertaking.


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> What I see happening is Russia pulling back across the river and demoing the bridge.
> 
> If I was Russia, I would personally be thinking that holding in to Kherson City is more trouble than it's worth, Militarily, ATM.
> 
> The River is almost half a NM wide in most places so a bridging effort would be a significant undertaking.


I'd agree, but Russia has also proven not as smart as we think. It depends also if the population rises up against the Russians, if they catch the Russians off guard quickly, they can take the bridge, which opens russias back door.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> I'd agree, but Russia has also proven not as smart as we think. It depends also if the population rises up against the Russians, if they catch the Russians off guard quickly, they can take the bridge, which opens russias back door.


This is the photo I wanted to show you, taken a week ago:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508880210372050944
Seems this may become a reality soon.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Anti-armour wire









						U_G_M
					

Все больше встречаются видео в украинских пабликах, как хохлы везде где можно устанавливают сеть малозаметную проволочную МЗП-1М (Путанка)




					t.me


----------



## armrdsoul77

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512805166512226305


Half A Dozen Chinese Y-20 Cargo Jets Popped Up Over Europe Last Night


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> This is the photo I wanted to show you, taken a week ago:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508880210372050944
> Seems this may become a reality soon.


Given how terrible Russian rear area security has been in that area, one would hope part of the plan would be Ukrainian SF infiltrating and removing the explosive


----------



## Zipperhead99

ISW with their Russian offensive campaign assessment (Coles Notes version: it does not look good)





__





						Institute for the Study of War
					

Special Edition: Russian Military Capabilities Assessments The Russian military is attempting to generate sufficient combat power to seize and hold the portions of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts that it does not currently control after it completes the




					www.understandingwar.org


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Another western leader drops by ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Austrian Chancellor visits Bucha
> 
> 
> Federal Chancellor of Austria Karl Negammer visited Bucha, Head of Kyiv Regional Military Administration Oleksandr Pavliuk has reported.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.interfax.com.ua


Have to wonder if Katie is desperately trying to convene our PM in a walk around Kyiv.


----------



## Gunnar

Skysix said:


> View attachment 69978Anyone know which unit this flag is from?


doing a quick internet search on "unit flags russian army" yields "United Armed Forces of Novorossiya"


----------



## Skysix

Gunnar said:


> doing a quick internet search on "unit flags russian army" yields "United Armed Forces of Novorossiya"




This is what that search yielded. However, Not far off. I eventually found this:









						Russian Orthodox Army - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org
				




The Russian Orthodox Army is one of a number of pro-Russian separatist militia units in the Donbas region described as "pro-Tsarist extremist Orthodox Christians"


----------



## Haggis

Skysix said:


> View attachment 69981
> 
> This is what that search yielded. However, Not far off. I eventually found this:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian Orthodox Army - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.m.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Russian Orthodox Army is one of a number of pro-Russian separatist militia units in the Donbas region described as "pro-Tsarist extremist Orthodox Christians"


It's missing 13 stars to be a true separatist flag.


----------



## MilEME09

Soldier35 said:


> In an interview, one of the soldiers of the Ukrainian army said that the most terrible thing is the work of Russian aviation in Ukraine. "Such a terrible thing is not for everyone, it already hurts the bones when aviation is working." Video, the work of Russian aviation in Ukraine


Not for everyone because they keep getting shot down


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Soldier35 said:


> In an interview, one of the soldiers of the Ukrainian army said that the most terrible thing is the work of Russian aviation in Ukraine. "Such a terrible thing is not for everyone, it already hurts the bones when aviation is working." Video, the work of Russian aviation in Ukraine


It's hard to avoid all the pieces of Russian aircraft returning to the  earth. ..


----------



## The Bread Guy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> ... I also suspect Ukraine will focus on pushing the Russians back across the Dniepr in Kherson.  Kherson could very easily become Mariupol 2.0 for the civilian population.


Team USSR 2.0 were already trying to suborn the place a month ago or so (and I haven't seen any indications of being successful in Kherson yet), so it's in their sights as another statelet for sure ...








						Following 2014 playbook, Russia is desperately trying to organize sham 'referendum' for 'people's republic' in Kherson, which is and will always be Ukraine – Kuleba
					

According to the 2014 playbook, Russia is desperately trying to hold a fake "referendum" for the "people's republic" in Kherson, if these plans are implemented, tough sanctions should be imposed against Russia, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has said.




					en.interfax.com.ua


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> Have to wonder if Katie is desperately trying to convene our PM in a walk around Kyiv.


Credit where due - even if it's something a lot of people may not like hearing on a military-focused forum - the convened event brought in $12.4B to help, so it all helps.

Now, if Canada _really_ wanted to help out, given its ... less than robust military stocks to share @ this point, here's one of the UK's offers ...








						President Zelensky: UK to take patronage over restoration of Kyiv and Kyiv Region
					

The United Kingdom is ready to assist Ukraine in rebuilding the city of Kyiv and Kyiv Region after the war ends. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				




Six cities - including biggies like Lviv & Odessa - are twinned with Canadian cities, but this is way too big an ask for even bigger cities like Vancouver or Winnipeg. 

If Canada can't/isn't willing to send bullets (at least new ones, anyway), which UKR city is Canada willing to step up and "adopt" to help rebuild?


----------



## Good2Golf

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> It's hard to avoid all the *fiery* 🔥 pieces of Russian aircraft returning to the  earth. ..


Fixed that for you. 😉

I think @Soldier35 forgot to add the part where the Ukrainian fire departments are getting lots of practice putting out flaming Russian helicopters…


----------



## Good2Golf

Not sure what RF unit is passing through Kursk, but you gotta wonder how things are going to go when you need a tow leaving the garrison?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513101692514021376


----------



## CBH99

One of the very few positive things to come out of this whole ugly mess is the sigh of relief I think we’ve all had about Russia’s actual threat level to NATO in a conventional conflict.  

All those assessments that Russia would basically bulldoze a few countries, within a few days, before NATO could mobilize any sort of counter-attack seem to have been on the extremely optimistic side favouring Russia.  

Turns out they are having a hard time blitzing their way through even one country that really takes off the gloves and fights back…

Needing a tow just to leave garrison?  Ooooffff…. Must be their version of the LSVW 😬😕👍🏻


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512897668246384640


Does anyone else have the impression that if the Brits could slip their chains that they’d grab the Poles as their dance partner and try to run amok with the Ukrainians against the Russians?


----------



## WLSC

Czech_pivo said:


> Does anyone else have the impression that if the Brits could slip their chains that they’d grab the Poles as their dance partner and try to run amok with the Ukrainians against the Russians?


I also think the Brits would not have been able to do that with out Brexit


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Czech_pivo said:


> Does anyone else have the impression that if the Brits could slip their chains that they’d grab the Poles as their dance partner and try to run amok with the Ukrainians against the Russians?


I think the only thing holding most individual NATO nations back from joining the beat down is the perceived forfeiting of Article 5 protection. Bucha has opened a lot of old wounds for countries like Czechia, Poland, Romania, and the Baltics.


----------



## Czech_pivo

rmc_wannabe said:


> I think the only thing holding most individual NATO nations back from joining the beat down is the perceived forfeiting of Article 5 protection. Bucha has opened a lot of old wounds for countries like Czechia, Poland, Romania, and the Baltics.


I think a potential couple of nukes thrown their way is slowing down this movement as well.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Czech_pivo said:


> I think a potential couple of nukes thrown their way is slowing down this movement as well.


We're it not for the nuclear deterrent threat, they'd be holding a very different Victory Day parade on Red Square May 9th.


----------



## McG

rmc_wannabe said:


> We're it not for the nuclear deterrent threat, they'd be holding a very different Victory Day parade on Red Square May 9th.


I would not assume that Russia's abysmal performance on offence in another country would immedeatly translate to similar results on the defence within thier own borders.  Nor would I assume many NATO nations would be any more operationally effective on the offense than what we are seeing from Russia now.  Poland, the Baltic nations, Canada, Germany, etc ... any one of these would likely stall-out under its own weight. The US could maybe do it (and bring others with it), but the month of preparatory fires would take us past your victory parade date.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

McG said:


> I would not assume that Russia's abysmal performance on offence in another country would immedeatly translate to similar results on the defence within thier own borders.  Nor would I assume many NATO nations would be any more operationally effective on the offense than what we are seeing from Russia now.  Poland, the Baltic nations, Canada, Germany, etc ... any one of these would likely stall-out under its own weight. The US could maybe do it (and bring others with it), but the month of preparatory fires would take us past your victory parade date.


Wishful thinking on my part I guess. Then again, we are talking about an operation that should have been a 3 day steamroller that has evolved into almost 2 months of intense losses for the Russians, so who knows what could have played out.


----------



## JLB50

An invasion on actual Russian soil would stir up considerable patriotic support by most Russians, something we haven’t seen when the Russians invaded Ukraine.


----------



## MilEME09

rmc_wannabe said:


> Wishful thinking on my part I guess. Then again, we are talking about an operation that should have been a 3 day steamroller that has evolved into almost 2 months of intense losses for the Russians, so who knows what could have played out.


Not to mention the Ukrainians are trained by us, but mostly Soviet era kit, if they had western kit, especially long range arty and aircraft, it's entirely possible Russias defeat would be faster.

Ukraine is primarily an infantry based force, which has been helping them out maneuver the Russians given the muddy spring. Armoured vehicles would be more help come summer when the ground hardens.

On a related note Slovakia has stated it is in talks to sell 2x batteries of modern SPGs, and all its Migs to Ukraine. On top of this KMW will offer to sell Ukraine 100 PzH2000 SPGs. Now I am skeptical of this as the German government seems to keep torpedoing arms deals to Ukraine, most recently 100 Marders. They may be under increasing pressure to let these deals happen.

The next problem is supply chain, but we are slowly running out of Soviet stocks to give Ukraine, so getting their arty switched to more advanced and accurate western guns would benefit Ukraine.



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513138397962854403




__





						KMW from Germany offers Ukraine to purchase 100 PzH 2000 155mm howitzers | Defense News April 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year
					

German company Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW) offers to Ukraine to purchase 100 Panzerhaubitze PzH 2000 155mm tracked self-propelled howitzers




					www.armyrecognition.com


----------



## Retired AF Guy

The Bread Guy said:


> Credit where due - even if it's something a lot of people may not like hearing on a military-focused forum - the convened event brought in $12.4B to help, so it all helps.
> 
> Now, if Canada _really_ wanted to help out, given its ... less than robust military stocks to share @ this point, here's one of the UK's offers ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> President Zelensky: UK to take patronage over restoration of Kyiv and Kyiv Region
> 
> 
> The United Kingdom is ready to assist Ukraine in rebuilding the city of Kyiv and Kyiv Region after the war ends. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Six cities - including biggies like Lviv & Odessa - are twinned with Canadian cities, but this is way too big an ask for even bigger cities like Vancouver or Winnipeg.
> 
> If Canada can't/isn't willing to send bullets (at least new ones, anyway), which UKR city is Canada willing to step up and "adopt" to help rebuild?


Well the budget did include $500 million in aid to Ukraine and since Thrusday has been increased by another $100 million.


----------



## The Bread Guy

WLSC said:


> I also think the Brits would not have been able to do that with out Brexit


Likely - but beware some of the sentiments that drove Brexit, too, though.  After all, part of the RUS narrative is that he's protecting Slavs 'R Us (TM) from decadent western liberal ideals - and this has been picked up by some NATO members, taken to the extreme, before all this, too.  Like @DarthPutinKGB has said more than once in the past ....

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500725937503100929

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/746315193383268352


Retired AF Guy said:


> Well the budget did include $500 million in aid to Ukraine and since Thrusday has been increased by another $100 million.


True enough - but I think it could make a significant non-military statement to UKR & the world saying, "yes - Canada will help rebuild <insert bashed UKR city> after this is all done."


----------



## Jarnhamar

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512931618096398341


Soldiers wearing hoods


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

McG said:


> I would not assume that Russia's abysmal performance on offence in another country would immedeatly translate to similar results on the defence within thier own borders.  Nor would I assume many NATO nations would be any more operationally effective on the offense than what we are seeing from Russia now.  Poland, the Baltic nations, Canada, Germany, etc ... any one of these would likely stall-out under its own weight. The US could maybe do it (and bring others with it), but the month of preparatory fires would take us past your victory parade date.


Agree, people have been underrating Ukraine in this campaign forgetting that:

A.  After Russia, they have the second biggest Army in Europe
B.  They have been at war with Russia since 2014 and suffered some horrendous defeats in that time which they learned from
C.  Russia made a lot of false assumptions about Ukrainian Defence Capabilities and their own perceived strengths.


----------



## Kirkhill

McG said:


> I would not assume that Russia's abysmal performance on offence in another country would immedeatly translate to similar results on the defence within thier own borders.  Nor would I assume many NATO nations would be any more operationally effective on the offense than what we are seeing from Russia now.  Poland, the Baltic nations, Canada, Germany, etc ... any one of these would likely stall-out under its own weight. The US could maybe do it (and bring others with it), but the month of preparatory fires would take us past your victory parade date.



What we seem to be seeing, and extrapolating from your point, is that nationalism is still a force to be reckoned with and that people will fight to defend their borders.  A well armed and organized territorial defence with cameras and good comms seems to be setting the ground conditions, adding to the complexity of the operating environment if you like.

It is relatively easy for the home side to manoeuver in that environment.  It is difficult for the away side.


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> Not to mention the Ukrainians are trained by us, but mostly Soviet era kit, if they had western kit, especially long range arty and aircraft, it's entirely possible Russias defeat would be faster.
> 
> Ukraine is primarily an infantry based force, which has been helping them out maneuver the Russians given the muddy spring. Armoured vehicles would be more help come summer when the ground hardens.
> 
> On a related note Slovakia has stated it is in talks to sell 2x batteries of modern SPGs, and all its Migs to Ukraine. On top of this KMW will offer to sell Ukraine 100 PzH2000 SPGs. Now I am skeptical of this as the German government seems to keep torpedoing arms deals to Ukraine, most recently 100 Marders. They may be under increasing pressure to let these deals happen.
> 
> The next problem is supply chain, but we are slowly running out of Soviet stocks to give Ukraine, so getting their arty switched to more advanced and accurate western guns would benefit Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513138397962854403
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> KMW from Germany offers Ukraine to purchase 100 PzH 2000 155mm howitzers | Defense News April 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year
> 
> 
> German company Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW) offers to Ukraine to purchase 100 Panzerhaubitze PzH 2000 155mm tracked self-propelled howitzers
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.armyrecognition.com


on long range arty do you mean something like HIMARS? 
because Ukraine had over 700 sph over 120 mm at the start of this war and dont seem to have lost alot according to Oryx acknowledging the bias inherent in Ukrainian OSINT reporting. Would NATO calibers at this point be helpful? On tanks close to 1500 with again according to Oryx a net loss of only 100


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> Likely - but beware some of the sentiments that drove Brexit, too, though.



About those "Polish plumbers".  The Brits and the Poles seem to be getting on well enough now.


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> on long range arty do you mean something like HIMARS?
> because Ukraine had over 700 sph over 120 mm at the start of this war and dont seem to have lost alot according to Oryx acknowledging the bias inherent in Ukrainian OSINT reporting. Would NATO calibers at this point be helpful? On tanks close to 1500 with again according to Oryx a net loss of only 100


Most of their arty is effective to 18.5km or so, now a pzh2000 with normal ammo can go upto 40km,  and upto 67km with RAP. western ammo, and systems, not just HIMARS will increase the range the Ukrainian forces can hit back, and accurately

*18.5km is based on the 2S3


----------



## ModlrMike

JLB50 said:


> An invasion on actual Russian soil would stir up considerable patriotic support by most Russians, something we haven’t seen when the Russians invaded Ukraine.


I imagine this is something the Ukrainians are aware of. They may have the power, and the will to, but they certainly have the sense not to.


----------



## brihard

ModlrMike said:


> I imagine this is something the Ukrainians are aware of. They may have the power, and the will to, but they certainly have the sense not to.


Yup. There's no percentage for them in crossing the border, other than perhaps specific targeted fires on strategic infrastructure. They have no legitimacy to take and hold anything that wasn't originally theirs. Plus anything that threatens Russia's sovereignty would quite quickly dry up Western support. We're sending missiles to defend Ukraine, not invade Russia. I'm sure Zelensky already knows that. I'm equally sure it's not something we really needed to worry about anyway.


----------



## MilEME09

brihard said:


> Yup. There's no percentage for them in crossing the border, other than perhaps specific targeted fires on strategic infrastructure. They have no legitimacy to take and hold anything that wasn't originally theirs. Plus anything that threatens Russia's sovereignty would quite quickly dry up Western support. We're sending missiles to defend Ukraine, not invade Russia. I'm sure Zelensky already knows that. I'm equally sure it's not something we really needed to worry about anyway.


I could sew cross border raids to hit military targets or rescue civilians from filtration camps, but that's about it


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> Most of their arty is effective to 18.5km or so, now a pzh2000 with normal ammo can go upto 40km,  and upto 67km with RAP. western ammo, and systems, not just HIMARS will increase the range the Ukrainian forces can hit back, and accurately
> 
> *18.5km is based on the 2S3



I suspicion that the shift to NATO standards might have two causes

1.  eating up Soviet era rounds and not being able to replace them fast enough
2.  access to low CEP, long range rounds only available in NATO calibres

Excaliber, and the lower cost Precision Guidance Kit.  Together with the GMRLS rounds which needs the HIMARs or the US MRLS.









						Northrop Grumman Surpasses Production of 50,000 Artillery Precision Guidance Kits
					

PLYMOUTH, Minn. – June 26, 2020 – Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE: NOC) announced today that the company has surpassed the production and delivery of 50,000 Precision Guidance Kits (PGK) for 155mm artillery projectiles. Recently, the company signed a...




					news.northropgrumman.com
				




Forgot the 155mm Leonardo Volcano rounds as well.


----------



## WLSC

The Bread Guy said:


> Likely - but beware some of the sentiments that drove Brexit, too, though.


I dont think that ''anti europa'' sentiment will survive what happening now.  No country is ever 100% behind ''he cause'' anyway.  As long the leaders play it good, it's should enough.


----------



## MilEME09

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/u0lxzf


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:


> About those "Polish plumbers".  The Brits and the Poles seem to be getting on well enough now.


True on the macro scale, but let's see how many Brits become plumbers & handi-folk to replace the Poles on the micro scale   Like I've said in the past, my relatives in Italy looked down on Eastern Europeans, but it it was mostly Eastern Europeans doing work that they couldn't get Italians to do (live in help for elderly/infirm, for example).


WLSC said:


> I dont think that ''anti europa'' sentiment will survive what happening now.  No country is ever 100% behind ''he cause'' anyway.  As long the leaders play it good, it's should enough.


I think the "anti europa" band will still be playing at more venues than we think, but different leaders'll emphasize different instruments or soloists, so to speak. UK's (or at least the government's) version is a very different anti-Euro than Hungary's anti-Euro - or Russia's.


----------



## WLSC

The Bread Guy said:


> I think the "anti europa" band will still be playing at more venues than we think, but different leaders'll emphasize different instruments or soloists, so to speak. UK's (or at least the government's) version is a very different anti-Euro than Hungary's anti-Euro - or Russia's.


Medium to longterm, you see a weakening of the support for Ukraine because of that?


----------



## The Bread Guy

WLSC said:


> Medium to longterm, you see a weakening of the support for Ukraine because of that?


Depends on the number of NATO countries playing which versions of the band, I guess - and how much of each country has the band in the background (supporters, even opposition parties with leverage) versus playing lead (running the country).  

OP edit to add:  Also depends what UKR and RUS, respectively, end up doing - including RUS continuing to pay for some of the bands' beer in the West, as @DarthPutinKGB has mentioned in the past.


----------



## WLSC

The Bread Guy said:


> Depends on the number of NATO countries playing which versions of the band, I guess - and how much of each country has the band in the background (supporters, even opposition parties with leverage) versus playing lead (running the country).


Anyhow, it will not be nice for a couples of years.  I think it will get way worst before Cold War 2.0


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> Depends on the number of NATO countries playing which versions of the band, I guess - and how much of each country has the band in the background (supporters, even opposition parties with leverage) versus playing lead (running the country).



I believe I detect a number of different hymn books currently.

The Baltic - Iceland, UK, (Netherlands*), Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania.
The Slavonic - Poland, Ukraine, Slovakia, Czechia, Slovenia, Croatia, (Romania*)
The Germanic - (Netherlands*), Germany, Austria, Hungary, Italy
The French - Belgium, (Netherlands*), Luxembourg, France, Ireland
The Mediterranean - Portugal, Spain, Malta, Cyprus
The Balkans - Greece, Albania, Macedonia, Kosovo, Bosnia, Montenegro, Serbia, Bulgaria, (Romania*)
The US

Whither Canada?  Baltic, Germanic, French or US?


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Kirkhill said:


> I believe I detect a number of different hymn books currently.
> 
> The Baltic - Iceland, UK, (Netherlands*), Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania.
> The Slavonic - Poland, Ukraine, Slovakia, Czechia, Slovenia, Croatia, (Romania*)
> The Germanic - (Netherlands*), Germany, Austria, Hungary, Italy
> The French - Belgium, (Netherlands*), Luxembourg, France, Ireland
> The Mediterranean - Portugal, Spain, Malta, Cyprus
> The Balkans - Greece, Albania, Macedonia, Kosovo, Bosnia, Montenegro, Serbia, Bulgaria, (Romania*)
> The US
> 
> Whither Canada?  Baltic, Germanic, French or US?


We are in the Franco/Belgian camp IMO.  Our State has some fundamental issues both domestic and foreign, which erode our capacity to respond with any sort of vigour.

The Freedom Convoy, which nearly became a constitutional crisis and crippled us should have made that much clear.


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> We are in the Franco/Belgian camp IMO.  Our State has some fundamental issues both domestic and foreign, which erode our capacity to respond with any sort of vigour.
> 
> The Freedom Convoy, which nearly became a constitutional crisis and crippled us should have made that much clear.



I really dislike having to agree with you on this one.  But our internal border runs through the Ottawa Valley.  Vancouver  (Island and City) is a world unto its own.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Kirkhill said:


> I really dislike having to agree with you on this one.  But our internal border runs through the Ottawa Valley.  Vancouver  (Island and City) is a world unto its own.


Kind of like Flanders and Walloon 😁

Little Luxembourg, with all its money, is off on its own in corner.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Kirkhill said:


> I really dislike having to agree with you on this one.  But our internal border runs through the Ottawa Valley.  Vancouver  (Island and City) is a world unto its own.


I remember in Geography class many moons ago having a teacher explain that the confederation of smaller states into a larger one is a relatively new idea in the grand scheme of things. He said eventually, the ties that bind will no longer, even in the Canadian context. 

The Urban/Rural divide in Ontario alone has shown how politically and culturally divided we are as a nation.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Another piece of the "helping out with Western weapons" puzzle falling into place








						Lithuania to resume training Ukrainian military in operating Western weaponry
					

Lithuania plans to organize training for Ukrainian servicemen in the near future to help them prepare for operating Western military equipment. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## WLSC

rmc_wannabe said:


> I remember in Geography class many moons ago having a teacher explain that the confederation of smaller states into a larger one is a relatively new idea in the grand scheme of things. He said eventually, the ties that bind will no longer, even in the Canadian context.
> 
> The Urban/Rural divide in Ontario alone has shown how politically and culturally divided we are as a nation.


Yep even more when one of the main reasons (common defense) that brought the federation does not really existe anymore.  As much that communication (from railway to internet) as brought poeple closer, more devide there is.  Regionalism is taking more and more place in the identity.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

rmc_wannabe said:


> I remember in Geography class many moons ago having a teacher explain that the confederation of smaller states into a larger one is a relatively new idea in the grand scheme of things. He said eventually, the ties that bind will no longer, even in the Canadian context.
> 
> The Urban/Rural divide in Ontario alone has shown how politically and culturally divided we are as a nation.


I literally have nothing in common with the Lower Mainland or the Victoria region (where I currently live).  I hate the politics, generally dislike the people (except for a few), hate the obscene costs for everything, hate the block apartments with a West Coast twist (place is going to look like Romania in 25 years, just wait for it).

I'm pulling out all the stops to extricate myself and will be moving to friendlier shores very soon😁


----------



## The Bread Guy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Agree, people have been underrating Ukraine in this campaign forgetting that:
> 
> A.  After Russia, they have the second biggest Army in Europe
> B.  They have been at war with Russia since 2014 and suffered some horrendous defeats in that time which they learned from
> C.  Russia made a lot of false assumptions about Ukrainian Defence Capabilities and political vulnerabilities and their own perceived strengths.


This, too ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Soldier35 said:


> The artillery of Russia and the Servicemen of the People's Militia began to use propaganda shells in Mariupol at the Azovstal combine. 122-mm propaganda shells 1AZH instead of the warhead are filled with passes and leaflets for the voluntary surrender of servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Propaganda leaflets are placed in steel half-cylinders of shells.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Want to learn how to REALLY get through to people, @Soldier35?  Learn from the best - less clunky, more perky


----------



## Zipperhead99

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I literally have nothing in common with the Lower Mainland or the Victoria region (where I currently live).  I hate the politics, generally dislike the people (except for a few), hate the obscene costs for everything, hate the block apartments with a West Coast twist (place is going to look like Romania in 25 years, just wait for it).
> 
> I'm pulling out all the stops to extricate myself and will be moving to friendlier shores very soon😁


Even within the province of BC, the Interior is much different that the GVRD or the Island; very much like the Northern/Southern Ontario divide mentioned eariler


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Kind of like Flanders and Walloon 😁
> 
> Little Luxembourg, with all its money, is off on its own in corner.


As someone who has first hand experience in the Vlaams/Walloon situation, we do NOT want to go down that path, it will be the death of Canada.


----------



## Kirkhill

Czech_pivo said:


> As someone who has first hand experience in the Vlaams/Walloon situation, we do NOT want to go down that path, it will be the death of Canada.



Serious question:  Aren't we there yet?  From an upclose and personal perspective how does Canada differ from Belgium?


----------



## torg003

IMO, the current Federal system doesn't work.  The pandemic has shown that provincial governments don't work, they are a hinderance to National action.  Get rid of provinces altogether.  Would need to reform the electoral system and how Parliament works.  Won't happen of course, but we do need to strengthen the role of the National government.  Though we can't realistically get rid of provinces, splitting them up into smaller ones (which would then have less power) might work better.


----------



## Kirkhill

torg003 said:


> IMO, the current Federal system doesn't work.  The pandemic has shown that provincial governments don't work, they are a hinderance to National action.  Get rid of provinces altogether.  Would need to reform the electoral system and how Parliament works.  Won't happen of course, but we do need to strengthen the role of the National government.  Though we can't realistically get rid of provinces, splitting them up into smaller ones (which would then have less power) might work better.



Yeh. I can agree with splitting the provinces.  Remove Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver and turn them into provinces of their own.  

Ixnay on the Edfays getting any more power.


----------



## Kirkhill

Meanwhile, in Ukraine, the Ukrainians captured one of those new-fangled Russian drones.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u0kwgs


----------



## Brad Sallows

More than just a single, federal government is vital.  The likelihood one government is going to get it right on every problem is small.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Kirkhill said:


> Serious question:  Aren't we there yet?  From an upclose and personal perspective how does Canada differ from Belgium?


We don't. We ceased being a unified country in the 1970s right around the time of Trudeau the First and the FLQ crisis and the NEP. We have so many regional issues even within our provinces, I have doubts we could unify the same way Ukraine has in the face of an existential threat. 

It's extremely disheartening to think about.


----------



## torg003

I agree with the idea that the biggest cities should be their own entities whether they're called provinces or something else (city-states?)


----------



## mariomike

Kirkhill said:


> Yeh. I can agree with splitting the provinces.  Remove Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver and turn them into provinces of their own.



8 pages about that.











						City-state provinces in Canada? Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver
					

No because other cities in Ontario obtain their water from Lake Ontario as well. They can have the Humber river.  What about taking this city state idea to the next level and evicting them from Canada and creating city-states like Singapore. I don't see a lot of merit for the rest of us in it...




					army.ca


----------



## torg003

OK, sorry for derailing this thread.  Let's get back to Ukraine.


----------



## Kirkhill

And back...

It is hard to keep track of the tall tales and the facts but it certainly seems as if the Russians are on the move.
It also seems that they are being observed.
So perhaps it is not so farfetched to believe that they are not having much success with their convoys









						Ukraine update: Russia's newest moves seem to mirror the failed tactics that led to Kyiv retreat
					

While Ukrainian defenders brace for a large-scale Russian attack in the east that may or may not ever come , the mood seems eerily similar to that of the war's first days and first push towards Kyiv.




					www.dailykos.com
				






__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u0b3gm


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u0ejif


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u0fdr6


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u0s74s

Not sure about the fate of this convoy - or even if it was one or two convoys.


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> And back...
> 
> It is hard to keep track of the tall tales and the facts but it certainly seems as if the Russians are on the move.
> It also seems that they are being observed.
> So perhaps it is not so farfetched to believe that they are not having much success with their convoys
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine update: Russia's newest moves seem to mirror the failed tactics that led to Kyiv retreat
> 
> 
> While Ukrainian defenders brace for a large-scale Russian attack in the east that may or may not ever come , the mood seems eerily similar to that of the war's first days and first push towards Kyiv.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.dailykos.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u0b3gm
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u0ejif
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u0fdr6
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u0s74s
> 
> Not sure about the fate of this convoy - or even if it was one or two convoys.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513274829503442945


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Quirky said:


> Until Canada is kicked out of NATO NORAD for being utterly useless as an alliance member nothing will happen. Canadians are just happy living in fortress north america and have their head in the sand being oblivious to the world. China or Russia (what will be left of it) would need to start issuing threats of "special military operations" into our mainland. Until then Canadians are in la-la land and think they are perfectly safe protected by the US and our geography. Canada is seen as a place to live to escape war because war will never happen on its soil.



Even then...I'm not sure the average Canadian would care...


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Kirkhill said:


> View attachment 69975View attachment 69976
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.seaforces.org/wpnsys/SURFACE/
> 
> 
> 
> STANFLEX-modules.htm
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> StanFlex - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I understand there is some concern being expressed about how the Ukrainians will launch the Harpoons without launchers.  Just ask the Danes if necessary.



Launch is one piece of the equation.  OTHT is another piece.  I'm sure they'll have that required "support" though.


----------



## WLSC

torg003 said:


> IMO, the current Federal system doesn't work.  The pandemic has shown that provincial governments don't work, they are a hinderance to National action.  Get rid of provinces altogether.  Would need to reform the electoral system and how Parliament works.  Won't happen of course, but we do need to strengthen the role of the National government.  Though we can't realistically get rid of provinces, splitting them up into smaller ones (which would then have less power) might work better.


I disagree.  The system work well when here level of goverment do what is suppose to do.   On this note, we're drifting away from Ukraine right now.


----------



## WLSC

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513274829503442945


Kinda like soviet move doctrine, no?


----------



## Kirkhill

WLSC said:


> Kinda like soviet move doctrine, no?


Maybe the last guy didn't get the chance to publish his Lessons Learned notes.


----------



## Kilted

torg003 said:


> IMO, the current Federal system doesn't work.  The pandemic has shown that provincial governments don't work, they are a hinderance to National action.  Get rid of provinces altogether.  Would need to reform the electoral system and how Parliament works.  Won't happen of course, but we do need to strengthen the role of the National government.  Though we can't realistically get rid of provinces, splitting them up into smaller ones (which would then have less power) might work better.


What you are suggesting would require significant changes to the constitution that would require provincial consent which would basically be impossible.  Given how difficult small changes to the constitution have been in the past (which were unsuccessful) I can't see the constitution changing anytime soon, maybe not in our lifetimes.  To be honest, I can't really see our politicians changing it in any productive way, so it is probably a good thing that it is so hard to change.


----------



## Zipperhead99

Today's ISW assessment






						Institute for the Study of War
					

Russian forces made territorial gains in Mariupol in the past 24 hours and continued to reinforce operations along the Izyum-Slovyansk axis but did not make other territorial gains. Russian forces bisected Mariupol from the city center to the coast on




					www.understandingwar.org


----------



## SupersonicMax

Kirkhill said:


> Maybe the last guy didn't get the chance to publish his Lessons Learned notes.


KMS was down.


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> Maybe the last guy didn't get the chance to publish his Lessons Learned notes.


Well they did take out all the 4G/5G towers


----------



## Eye In The Sky

MilEME09 said:


> Well they did take out all the 4G/5G towers



Where there's a will, there's a way!


----------



## Dana381

Obituary


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> Serious question:  Aren't we there yet?  From an upclose and personal perspective how does Canada differ from Belgium?


Well, Brussels/Bruxelles has such things like the library’s based purely on language - not sections in each library being in Vlaams or French, but only in each language.

City of Brussels  it is just one of many, many examples of the outright stupidity that exists in Brussels/Bruxelles and in Belgium/Belgie.

The city is governed by separate language bodies, the French Community and the Flemish Community, each having equal municipal powers and separate elected officials. On top of all that there is some strange entity, the CCC, which is the Common Community Commission composed of people from the regional parliament. Then there is the Brussels Capital Region which is governed by another Parliament strictly broken into representation along language composition based on the first language of those living in Brussels.  It has only gotten worse since I left there years ago, absolute chaos.

There is the Belgian National Parliament, the French Parliament of the French Community, Flemish Parliament, all located in the City of Brussels.

In the past they have gone hundreds (yes, I said hundreds) of days without having a Federal government, it takes that long to get complete consensus on who will be in government. 

Each Federal party is completely broken into language groups. French Socialist Party and Party Leader, Flemish Socialist Party and Party Leader - separate funding, policy, agenda, etc, etc.  All Federal parties are just like this. 
It would be like the Federal Liberal Party having a leader outside of Quebec for all of Canada except Quebec and then there being a ‘Federal’ Liberal party inside Quebec with another leader just for Quebec.


----------



## MilEME09

https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/04/11/yesterday-georgia-today-ukraine-tomorrow-kazakhstan-kazakhs-respond-to-moscow-threats/


----------



## Zipperhead99

An interesting comparison









						Historic Parallels between the Ukraine War and the Sino-Japanese War | Geopolitical Monitor
					

For one, both conflicts stemmed from a gross miscalculation on the part of the aggressor.



					www.geopoliticalmonitor.com


----------



## WLSC

Kirkhill said:


> Maybe the last guy didn't get the chance to publish his Lessons Learned notes.


I was hoping a fun anwer like that, thanks 😂.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513385560055951363


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513479162618646532
I wonder if we still have any Leopard 1 or variants (ARV, AEV, AVLB) that are not yet demilitarized. Alternately, any leftover 105 mm ammo, spare parts, or Leo 1 up-armour.


----------



## MilEME09

McG said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513479162618646532
> I wonder if we still have any Leopard 1 or variants (ARV, AEV, AVLB) that are not yet demilitarized. Alternately, any leftover 105 mm ammo, spare parts, or Leo 1 up-armour.


German Chancellor won't sign off any way, but I'd have serious questions on the condition of said vehicles. If they are in good shape, sure let's dig those MEXAS kits out and send then over.

Meanwhile Ukrainian Gunners keep getting more accurate 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513510159745749001


----------



## McG

MilEME09 said:


> German Chancellor won't sign off any way ...


BBC is also reporting that the donation of Leopard 1 is happening, and that the tanks themselves are recently off an upgrade line.


----------



## KevinB

McG said:


> BBC is also reporting that the donation of Leopard 1 is happening, and that the tanks themselves are recently off an upgrade line.


The Leo2 donation was blocked, but the Leo1 donation is apparently okay.


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> The Leo2 donation was blocked, but the Leo1 donation is apparently okay.


The donation of 100 marders was also blocked once as well, KWM also is offering Ukraine the pzh2000 SPG if the government will allow it.


----------



## The Bread Guy

McG said:


> BBC is also reporting that the donation of Leopard 1 is happening, and that the tanks themselves are recently off an upgrade line.


Reuters says today they're good to go - IF government says "go" ...


> ... Rheinmetall could deliver the first tanks in six weeks and the rest over the following three months through its subsidiary Rheinmetall Italia if it gets the green light from the German government, Chief Executive Armin Papperger told Handelsblatt ...


... and it was still "nein" as of a few days ago








						Scholz holds up German tank deliveries to Ukraine
					

German chancellor holds off on ramping up military aid despite pressure from coalition partners.




					www.politico.eu
				



Let's see how quickly gov't can get to "ja" ...

OP edit to add:  More from the Reuters article (datelined about 0900E today), based on this DEU media piece (over the paywall, in German) ...


> Military equipment maker Rheinmetall (RHMG.DE) is preparing to supply up to 50 used Leopard 1 battle tanks to Ukraine, the Handelsblatt newspaper reported on Monday, citing the group's CEO.
> 
> Rheinmetall could deliver the first tanks in six weeks and the rest over the following three months through its subsidiary Rheinmetall Italia if it gets a green light from the German government, Chief Executive Armin Papperger told Handelsblatt.
> 
> 
> Papperger said Ukrainian soldiers could be trained on the Leopard 1 within a few days if they are already skilled military personnel.
> 
> Some German government politicians have said it takes too long to train Ukrainians to handle Western weapons, and it was better to send equipment they can operate right away.  read more
> 
> Handelsblatt reported that politicians from Germany's coalition government, made up of Social Democrats, the Greens and Free Democrats, and are open to a possible delivery of the Leopard tanks, the newspaper reported.
> 
> 
> "You have to be trained a bit more intensively on the Leopard 1. But if the Ukrainians want the tank, a way should be found," Marcus Faber, defence policy spokesperson for the Free Democrats' parliamentary group, told the paper.
> 
> Economy Minister Robert Habeck said on Monday weapons from Germany for Ukraine should be delivered quickly because Russia's attack from the east is imminent.
> 
> "With the decision to support Ukraine with weapons, Germany made an obligation," Habeck said.
> 
> 
> Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which began on Feb. 24, Germany has reversed a long-standing policy of not sending weapons to conflict zones and Berlin has supplied Kyiv with anti-tank weapons and missiles.
> 
> Russian President Vladimir Putin sent his troops into Ukraine on what he calls a "special military operation" to demilitarise and "denazify" Ukraine. Ukraine and the West say Putin launched an unprovoked war of aggression.
> 
> Rheinmetall's Leopard 1 battle tank is a predecessor model of the Leopard 2 currently in service with the German armed forces, and the armies using it have returned it to the supplier while upgrading their equipment, Handelsblatt reported.


----------



## MilEME09

This could cost the Chancellor his job if enough of the coalition get tired of his feet dragging


----------



## SeaKingTacco

MilEME09 said:


> The donation of 100 marders was also blocked once as well, KWM also is offering Ukraine the pzh2000 SPG if the government will allow it.


I had read someplace that those 100 Marders were stored outside and were fit only for scrap. True or not?


----------



## Czech_pivo

You know, it's going to be interesting to see how Russia is able to maintain its troop presence in Transnistria.  The only way for them to access the area is by flying over Ukrainian territory and the Ukkies have said that they will attempt to shot down any plane flying into/out of that area.

Not sure what the status of flights into/out of the area was between 2014 until Feb 24th, if the Romanians and Moldova's allowed Russians to access their airspace to gain entry in the past, but that door is now closed as well.

If these access points continue to remain closed a number of years into the future I can imagine that the potential for 'change' to occur there grows daily. The majority of the 1-1.5k troops are local Russians but the majority of the Officers are Russians, who currently have no way home.

An aging prize - Cobasna ammunition depot - Wikipedia


----------



## Kirkhill

Czech_pivo said:


> Well, Brussels/Bruxelles has such things like the library’s based purely on language - not sections in each library being in Vlaams or French, but only in each language.
> 
> City of Brussels  it is just one of many, many examples of the outright stupidity that exists in Brussels/Bruxelles and in Belgium/Belgie.
> 
> The city is governed by separate language bodies, the French Community and the Flemish Community, each having equal municipal powers and separate elected officials. On top of all that there is some strange entity, the CCC, which is the Common Community Commission composed of people from the regional parliament. Then there is the Brussels Capital Region which is governed by another Parliament strictly broken into representation along language composition based on the first language of those living in Brussels.  It has only gotten worse since I left there years ago, absolute chaos.
> 
> There is the Belgian National Parliament, the French Parliament of the French Community, Flemish Parliament, all located in the City of Brussels.
> 
> In the past they have gone hundreds (yes, I said hundreds) of days without having a Federal government, it takes that long to get complete consensus on who will be in government.
> 
> Each Federal party is completely broken into language groups. French Socialist Party and Party Leader, Flemish Socialist Party and Party Leader - separate funding, policy, agenda, etc, etc.  All Federal parties are just like this.
> It would be like the Federal Liberal Party having a leader outside of Quebec for all of Canada except Quebec and then there being a ‘Federal’ Liberal party inside Quebec with another leader just for Quebec.



So, not quite then?


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR mil int says RUS's looking out for guerilla activity around rail lines in areas neighbouring Ukraine - this in Google English ...


> The Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation is obliged to ensure the interaction of the Russian Railways with the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the FSB. Increased security measures are associated with "the threat of interference in the operation of transport infrastructure facilities located on the borders of the Rostov region and Krasnodar Territory."
> 
> For the first time, counter-sabotage measures on Russian railways were introduced with the beginning of aggression against Ukraine for a short time, based on rapid blitzkrieg. After the failure of the initial plan, their action is regularly continued and strengthened.
> 
> This increase in readiness is due in particular to the actions of the Belarusian "rail guerrillas", who purposefully disable the railway connection with Ukraine to complicate the delivery of reinforcements from the combat zone ...


 Alleged RUS order shared by UKR mil int attached.


----------



## CBH99

The Bread Guy said:


> UKR mil int says RUS's looking out for guerilla activity around rail lines in areas neighbouring Ukraine - this in Google English ...
> 
> Alleged RUS order shared by UKR mil int attached.


I remember reading (I thought it was on here, but perhaps not) that the FSB was quite focused on rail operations going through Belarus, to the point they were starting to pay a visit to the families of rail workers.  

This was after 2 trains were either disabled/delayed/derailed that were loaded with dozens & dozens of AFV and trucks, that were meant to reinforce Russian units in Ukraine.  


While Russian logistics have been lacking thus far, and it’s quite clear that ‘things didn’t go as planned’ - having the trains that are loaded up with fresh vehicles & supplies continually not show up has to bog the Russians down far more than has been reported thus far.


Turns out even Belarus isn’t as pumped as you thought they were, huh Vlad?  Shocking!


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513570561447837700


----------



## Brad Sallows

> An armada of Russian troops is marching on Kharkiv.





> After that, most likely, the troops will go to Kiev



An armada of Russian troops already marched on Kiev.  The entire world has seen how that turned out.


----------



## MilEME09

Soldier35 said:


> Initially, it was believed that it was a tank of the Russian army that fired at a group of Ukrainian military at point-blank range, but then it turned out that Ukrainian taxi drivers fired at their own at point-blank range. There was an abandoned Russian BMP next to the soldiers, the tankers thought it was the Russian military and opened fire. There is already a video of the dead, but there is one tin on it..
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> An armada of Russian troops is marching on Kharkiv. Ukrainian media reported satellite images showing a giant Russian column of military equipment with a length of 12 km, going in the direction of Kharkov. Eyewitnesses from Ukraine have already started posting videos of this column of troops. As part of the special operation in Ukraine, a major battle will soon take place in the Donbas. After that, most likely, the troops will go to Kiev, since the success of the peace talks is very doubtful due to the statement of the head of EU diplomacy Josep Borrel, where he reports the need to resolve the conflict in Ukraine "on the battlefield", the actual Ukraine was told to fight.


Oh look the convoy that got reportedly blown up yesterday


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

We all know what British Guns in the right hands did to the last Armada:


----------



## Blackadder1916

Soldier35 said:


> . . .  but then it turned out that Ukrainian *taxi drivers* fired at their own at point-blank range.



But were they on the meter at the time?  It'll probably affect the size of the tip.


----------



## McG

Put ⅩⅧ Corps in Finland they day the country submits its request to join NATO.


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


>


Oh look, @Soldier35, another armada of your APCs on crappy Chinese tires…you guys have lots of spare tires, right?


----------



## Halifax Tar

Has @Soldier35 actually replied to anyone ?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> Oh look, @Soldier35, another armada of your APCs on crappy Chinese tires…you guys have lots of spare tires, right?


Not as many as earlier in the campaign ...


----------



## MilEME09

Oh no, I hope this is false


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513601575859728386


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Breakdown of ambush that we saw last week


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> Oh no, I hope this is false
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513601575859728386


"Hint hint" from Donetsk rebel spokesperson earlier today (via Indian media)








						DPR Militia hints at possible use of chemical weapons in Mariupol's Azovstal steel plant
					

The Deputy head of Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) Militia hinted at the use of chemical weapons usage in Mariupol's Azovstal Steel Plant.




					www.republicworld.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Review of Russian UAV

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513211530904580098


----------



## Colin Parkinson

The Bread Guy said:


> "Hint hint" from Donetsk rebel spokesperson earlier today (via Indian media)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> DPR Militia hints at possible use of chemical weapons in Mariupol's Azovstal steel plant
> 
> 
> The Deputy head of Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) Militia hinted at the use of chemical weapons usage in Mariupol's Azovstal Steel Plant.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.republicworld.com


Likely lot's of nasty chemicals there, fighting could cause a release of them


----------



## The Bread Guy

Colin Parkinson said:


> Likely lot's of nasty chemicals there, fighting could cause a release of them


Like many industrial plants, for sure, but Donetsk buddy's (at least alleged) slip of the tongue .... draws the eye a bit.


----------



## MilEME09

Colin Parkinson said:


> Likely lot's of nasty chemicals there, fighting could cause a release of them


Initial reports claiming Sarin dropped from a drone


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> Initial reports claiming Sarin dropped from a drone


Maybe, maybe not. Lots of stuff in a burning city can cause you acute health issues. More info is needed.


Soldier35 said:


> Initially, it was believed that it was a tank of the Russian army that fired at a group of Ukrainian military at point-blank range, but then it turned out that Ukrainian taxi drivers fired at their own at point-blank range. There was an abandoned Russian BMP next to the soldiers, the tankers thought it was the Russian military and opened fire. There is already a video of the dead, but there is one tin on it..
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> An armada of Russian troops is marching on Kharkiv. Ukrainian media reported satellite images showing a giant Russian column of military equipment with a length of 12 km, going in the direction of Kharkov. Eyewitnesses from Ukraine have already started posting videos of this column of troops. As part of the special operation in Ukraine, a major battle will soon take place in the Donbas. After that, most likely, the troops will go to Kiev, since the success of the peace talks is very doubtful due to the statement of the head of EU diplomacy Josep Borrel, where he reports the need to resolve the conflict in Ukraine "on the battlefield", the actual Ukraine was told to fight.



Someone remind me why Putin’s fluffer is allowed to propagandize on a site intended for the Canadian military community and related discussions?


----------



## WLSC

brihard said:


> Maybe, maybe not. Lots of stuff in a burning city can cause you acute health issues. More info is needed.
> 
> 
> Someone remind me why Putin’s fluffer is allowed to propagandize on a site intended for the Canadian military community and related discussions?


It’s our daily laughing moment 🤷🏼‍♂️😁


----------



## Good2Golf

知彼知己百戰不殆
(Sun Tzu)



"Know the enemy and know yourself, and you can fight a hundred battles without defeat"


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

brihard said:


> Maybe, maybe not. Lots of stuff in a burning city can cause you acute health issues. More info is needed.
> 
> 
> Someone remind me why Putin’s fluffer is allowed to propagandize on a site intended for the Canadian military community and related discussions?


Because we like to think our members are adults who can distinguish between free speech and censorship.  Not to mention if there are any members out there who have bought into his videos please raise your hands,........yea, that's what we thought, adults.


----------



## Kirkhill

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> Because we like to think our members are adults who can distinguish between free speech and censorship.  Not to mention if there are any members out there who have bought into his videos please raise your hands,........yea, that's what we thought, adults.



I don't know.  He made himself useful.  I was looking for that video of the VDV convoy.  Couldn't find it.  It seems to have gone away.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

brihard said:


> Maybe, maybe not. Lots of stuff in a burning city can cause you acute health issues. More info is needed.
> 
> 
> Someone remind me why Putin’s fluffer is allowed to propagandize on a site intended for the Canadian military community and related discussions?


You don't like having a laugh once a day? 😁

Soldier35's material is like a real bad Seagal movie, straight to VHS!


----------



## Good2Golf

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Soldier35's material is like a real bad Seagal movie, straight to VHS!


…even though Beta was superior…


----------



## Blackadder1916

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Soldier35's material is like a real bad Seagal movie, straight to VHS!



Or to YouTube


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Likely lot's of nasty chemicals there, fighting could cause a release of them



Put me in the skeptical "you're fighting in cities/industrial areas; WTF do you expect" silo.


----------



## Kirkhill

Russians stretching 55 BTGs along the 800 km of front from Kherson to Luhansk?


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u1dqjf


----------



## CBH99

Blackadder1916 said:


> Or to YouTube


I see reporters across the pond aren’t above asking trick questions where the person being interviewed is screwed regardless of what they say, then throw in something completely unrelated just for good measure.  🤦🏼‍♂️


Starts out productive enough…

“How do you think you’ll be able to mend US-Russia relations?”


Then takes a bit of a dive…

“If you had to choose citizenship of own country over another, what side would you choose?”


Then let’s just make sure this interview goes nowhere with the…

“So how’s the rape allegations coming along?”


All within about 30-45 seconds.  Bravo lady, you seem to hold yourself to about the same standard as our own MSM.


----------



## The Bread Guy

brihard said:


> Maybe, maybe not. Lots of stuff in a burning city can cause you acute health issues. More info is needed.


That's true, but they also say "believe them when they say what they'll do" - this via RUS state media's Telegram account (Google Translation)


> RIA News
> ✔
> RIA News
> Pushilin said that at least 1.5 thousand Ukrainian militants were blocked in the Azovstal area
> 
> Basurin said that it makes no sense to storm the underground fortifications of Azovstal in Mariupol, you need to "turn to the chemical troops"
> 
> "There are underground floors, so it makes no sense to take this object by storm. Because you can put a large number of your soldiers, and the enemy will not suffer losses as such"
> 
> “Therefore, at the moment it is necessary to deal with the blocking of this plant, find all the exits and entrances - in principle, this can be done.
> t.me/rian_ru/158246
> 1.0M views
> Apr 11 at 12:07 pm


Here's the original post in case anyone wants to correct Google's translation


----------



## CBH99

Kirkhill said:


> I don't know.  He made himself useful.  I was looking for that video of the VDV convoy.  Couldn't find it.  It seems to have gone away.


Right along with a huge chunk of the VDV themselves… yeow!!

(It was a zinger in my head, guys…)


----------



## The Bread Guy

And more details from RUS state media (setting up the rebels as the culprits, perhaps?):  *"(Donetsk rebel spokesperson) Basurin: chemical troops will help "lure the moles" and take "Azovstal" "* (links to Google English translation - archive link of original in Russian)


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukrainians claiming that they can use NATO kit like Abrams and Leos having worked on NATO ops in Iraq and Afghanistan and on many exercises.

Just send them the kit.  They'll figure it out.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u187m7


----------



## MilEME09

Looks like the states are trying to confirm the reports, SIGINT aircraft flying as close as they can.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513649963095445508
In other news


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513651655430049801


----------



## ModlrMike

That looks most unlike a tank to me. BMP perhaps?


----------



## MilEME09

ModlrMike said:


> That looks most unlike a tank to me. BMP perhaps?


Definitely BMPs, though the T72s are confirmed


----------



## MilEME09

Gotta hand it to the PR team


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513654845076643846


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> Gotta hand it to the PR team
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513654845076643846


I meant it when I suggested to @Soldier35 that s/he watch UKR info-machine stuff for its slickness.


----------



## The Bread Guy

This Donetsk rebel spokesperson Basurin, wonder if he knows it sure looks like he may be being set up as a fall guy if Team USSR 2.0 ever decides to give someone up for war crime trials?  First it's quotes in RUS state media talking about smoking out "moles" with chemical troops, now this from earlier today via rebel media ....


> The Russia-led coalition has formed assault groups to neutralize the nationalistic formations at the Azovstal plant, the DPR People's Militia said.
> 
> “Assault units have been prepared for operations in complex industrial buildings, which use rocket-propelled infantry flamethrowers to destroy the positions of the Azov Nazis,” it said.
> 
> This approach has proven effective during the assault on ground and underground structures of the Mariupol Ilyich Iron and Steel Works ...


OK, maybe not as war-crimey as chemical weapons, but still ...

Archived link to Donetsk rebel info-machine article in English here.


----------



## KevinB

@Soldier35 you dropped something

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513659270801367047


----------



## Eye In The Sky

MilEME09 said:


> Looks like the states are trying to confirm the reports, SIGINT aircraft flying as close as they can.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513649963095445508
> In other news
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513651655430049801



Confirm which report, the CBRN stuff?  

Just wanted to point out, GH does do SIGINT but not just SIGINT.   There’s other specialized assets that do SIGINT that are probably on the black side; but they’re there, I have no doubt.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513644118307741698


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513583713342394372


----------



## McG

Can Slovakia’s MiG-29 fleet fire NATO air launched weapons?


----------



## KevinB

McG said:


> Can Slovakia’s MiG-29 fleet fire NATO air launched weapons?


Not all - which is why they are being replaced with F-16's that were scheduled to be delivered next year - and apparently accelerated to very soon...

12 of the 21 apparently can launch NATO AAM's (according to Wiki)


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513635812180643842


----------



## MilEME09

McG said:


> Can Slovakia’s MiG-29 fleet fire NATO air launched weapons?


Not 100% but what I can find is that they were upgraded in the late 2000s with western avionics and gear to allow NATO interoperability. So maybe?


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Not 100% but what I can find is that they were upgraded in the late 2000s with western avionics and gear to allow NATO interoperability. So maybe?


Upgrade was done but only 12 of the 21 apparently can use NATO AAM's


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513583713342394372


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> View attachment 70029


I guess he really wants to see US donated heavy equipment in Ukrainian hands, or V Corps pushing to Crimea, the week is just starting...


----------



## McG

KevinB said:


> 12 of the 21 apparently can launch NATO AAM's (according to Wiki)


So those should be the first 12 to be donated.


----------



## KevinB

McG said:


> So those should be the first 12 to be donated.


The Slovakian AirForce may need them for the upcoming NATO strike package on Russia...


No one else seemed to like my idea of drawing s small city (50-100k) in Russia from a hat and nuking it, as a message about how rude it is to use CRBN attacks.


----------



## Gunnar

Humphrey Bogart said:


> You don't like having a laugh once a day? 😁
> 
> Soldier35's material is like a real bad Seagal movie, straight to VHS!


Well, Seagal IS Russian, so it’s kinda appropriate...


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513675736367915016
Meanwhile, didn't know about the senator till now. Seems like an okay vehicle.









						John Ivison: Ottawa is buying armoured vehicles for Ukraine, but they won’t be enough
					

We should be sending the Harpoons and the retired LAVs too, as well as anything else we can buy on the open market




					nationalpost.com
				












						Roshel – Smart Armored Vehicles
					

Roshel is one of the largest manufacturers of smart armored vehicles for commercial and government organizations in North America.




					roshel.ca


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> The Slovakian AirForce may need them for the upcoming NATO strike package on Russia...
> 
> 
> No one else seemed to like my idea of drawing s small city (50-100k) in Russia from a hat and nuking it, as a message about how rude it is to use CRBN attacks.


I can’t bring myself to come anywhere near agreeing with that at this point. 
It would become a tit for tat approach. I don’t see the Russians responding back with an attack on a city in Europe but with an attack along the East or West coast of the continental US. I don’t want to say goodbye to Bangor Maine or Ocean City Maryland.


----------



## MilEME09

Ukraine has captured enough kit to reequip the CAF.....don't know what's sadder, the fact Russia let it all get captured, or that the CAF is so small that this is all it takes.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513598055873978372


----------



## Zipperhead99

If a chemical weapons attack is confirmed, then what? How does US / NATO respond?  Biden said it was a red line, but was it just talk?


----------



## Zipperhead99

Well done Russia, you might succeed in preventing Ukraine from joining NATO but, instead, it appears that Sweden and Finland will



			https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-04-10/finland-sweden-set-to-join-nato-as-soon-as-summer-the-times


----------



## OldSolduer

Zipperhead99 said:


> If a chemical weapons attack is confirmed, then what? How does US / NATO respond?  Biden said it was a red line, but was it just talk?


How many lines in the sand did Obama draw?


----------



## CBH99

OldSolduer said:


> How many lines in the sand did Obama draw?


While Biden was VP, at that.  

A red line?  And what if red line is crossed? Really going to commit the US military to war in Ukraine?


I doubt them crossing ‘this’ red line will change the current US posture much.  If Bucha didn’t, this won’t.  


0.02


----------



## MilEME09

Zipperhead99 said:


> If a chemical weapons attack is confirmed, then what? How does US / NATO respond?  Biden said it was a red line, but was it just talk?


I don't know if the public will let this one go, if they are gassing Civilians, people will demand more action, don't even Canada or Germany will be able to dither


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> I don't know if the public will let this one go, if they are gassing Civilians, people will demand more action, don't even Canada or Germany will be able to dither


Doubtful, didn't stop anyone in Syria and the US literally had troops in the theatre.



CBH99 said:


> While Biden was VP, at that.
> 
> A red line?  And what if red line is crossed? Really going to commit the US military to war in Ukraine?
> 
> 
> I doubt them crossing ‘this’ red line will change the current US posture much.  If Bucha didn’t, this won’t.
> 
> 
> 0.02


One thing,

Russia has consistently acted on stated Red Lines.  The US has, since Obama, announced Red Lines then done nothing.

Will that change?  I'm betting Niet.


----------



## Eaglelord17

MilEME09 said:


> I don't know if the public will let this one go, if they are gassing Civilians, people will demand more action, don't even Canada or Germany will be able to dither


I sincerely doubt it, the public support is a mile wide and a inch deep. There will be a few cries of outrage, and then back to the usual complaints of higher gas prices and grocery bills. Don’t over estimate how much the public cares about things which don’t directly effect them today. 

We tolerate genocide as long as we can keep buying cheap goods from those countries without much protest. As a nation we act morally superior without doing much more than complaining to support that stance.


----------



## Brad Sallows

People will need to calm the f*ck down, that's all.  It doesn't matter much if Putin's army kills a few hundred with chemicals or with conventional HE.  They're dead either way.  Among the people supposedly in charge are, in all likelihood, quite a few lightweights - perhaps even heads of government.  They will seize on public indignation to excuse whatever they are doing even if they know it to be wrong and risky.  Don't give them that.


----------



## Maxman1

Good2Golf said:


> …even though Beta was superior…



Even Batman prefers Beta





(Although that's clearly a VHS tape)


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

I find the economic aspect of this more interesting:









						Russia has defaulted on its foreign debt, says S&P
					

Russia has defaulted on its foreign debt because it offered bondholders payments in rubles, not dollars, credit ratings agency S&P has said.




					www.ctvnews.ca
				




The long term ramifications of this are unknown but the US could quite possibly be setting themselves up for a pull away from the US Dollar being the World's Reserve Currency.

Here is what some other Countries/Regions are saying:

South Africa:









						Is this the end of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency?
					

The West’s actions against Russia since the war in Ukraine could signal an emerging new order that shuns the US for weaponising the dollar




					mg.co.za
				




United Kingdom:






						Register to read | Financial Times
					

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication




					www.ft.com
				












						Toppling the dollar as reserve currency risks harmful fragmentation
					

Sanctions against Russia have spurred calls for an alternative holding, but this would only destabilise the financial system




					www.ft.com
				




Saudi Arabia:









						Opinion | How Biden Lost Saudi Arabia
					

The President’s brand of liberal internationalism is proving to be costly.




					www.wsj.com
				












						In blow to Biden, Saudi Arabia considers helping China unseat US dollar as world's reserve currency
					

Since 1974, Saudi Arabia has conducted all of its oil sales in U.S. dollars. That might be about to change, and President Joe Biden's snubbing of Arab leaders might be the cause.




					www.washingtonexaminer.com
				




India:









						US dollar losing currency among world's central banks; guess who's gaining
					

An IMF research report shows a strong negative correlation between the reserve issuer's public debt and reserve shares.




					www.fortuneindia.com
				












						Why ‘de-dollarisation’ is imminent
					

Sachchidanand Shukla writes: Diversification away from USD is meant to insulate economies from geopolitical risks




					indianexpress.com
				




Brazil:









						Brazil central bank quadruples exposure to Chinese yuan
					

Brazil's central bank more than quadrupled its foreign reserves in Chinese yuan last year, policymakers reported on Thursday, as it trimmed holdings of U.S. dollars and euros and built Brazilian reserves of currency from its biggest trade partner.




					www.reuters.com
				




United Arab Emirates:









						‘Weaponisation’ to undermine dollar’s status as reserve currency
					

Russia has been gradually reducing its dollar holdings since the imposition of Western sanctions following Moscow’s annexation of Crimea in 2014




					www.zawya.com
				




China:









						Can the yuan be a key world reserve currency?
					

The yuan, or renminbi, China’s currency unit, has been touted as a contender to become a key world reserve currency on par with the greenback and surpassing the euro, yen and British pound. B…




					asiatimes.com
				












						How sanctions on Russia could lead to increased demand for China’s yuan
					

Western sanctions cutting Moscow off from its foreign reserves give China greater incentive to move away from the US dollar and euro, and may push other countries to follow suit. Beijing may also be tempted to buy discounted Russian commodities as prices surge elsewhere.




					www.scmp.com
				












						Nations should work together to chip away at dollar’s dominance - Global Times
					






					www.globaltimes.cn
				




Canada:



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-reserve-currency-1.6382567
		










						Russia sanctions threaten to dilute dominance of U.S. dollar, says IMF official
					

Gita Gopinath says sanctions could encourage emergence of small currency blocs based on trade between separate groups of countries




					financialpost.com
				




Other:









						The US dollar's global standing as the top reserve currency has lost ground to China's yuan and others, says IMF
					

The dollar share of international reserves has declined over the past two decades, while the yuan has gained ground, according to an IMF report.




					markets.businessinsider.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Zipperhead99 said:


> If a chemical weapons attack is confirmed, then what? How does US / NATO respond?  Biden said it was a red line, but was it just talk?


C'mon, now, we KNOW it's a false-flag by the Banderists/nationalists/Azov to cover up a U.S. bio-weapons lab @ the Mariupol steel plant, right?  Right?  This, from a pro-Russian narrative amplifier site 

You can read the whole thing at an archived link here


----------



## KevinB

Russia ‘using weapons smuggled by Iran from Iraq against Ukraine’ — Guardian US
					

Iraqi militias and others say undercover networks being used to supply materiel such as RPGs and anti-tank missiles




					apple.news


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513865988143521794


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513865988143521794


Brave souls, indeed, given the consequences of being caught by "the neighbours".


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Brave souls, indeed, given the consequences of being caught by "the neighbours".


Vlasov would be proud of them.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

One must wonder, looking at this map, whether Putin took a page out of Stalin's book with his appointment of Dvornikov to command Russian Forces in Ukraine?









						Who is the general leading Russia’s new war strategy in Ukraine?
					

Dubbed the ‘butcher’ of Aleppo and Grozny, Aleksandr Dvornikov, was honoured with a Hero of Russia medal in 2016.




					www.aljazeera.com
				




We know Russian Forces were each being commanded independently by their respective Military Districts prior to the change noted above.

Now the Southern Military District (the one who had the most operational success) is in command.

Stalin used to use similar tricks in WW2 when dealing with his Generals.  









						Georgy Zhukov and Ivan Konev: The Race to Berlin
					

On orders from Premier Josef Stalin, Red Army Marshals Georgy Zhukov and Ivan Konev raced to capture the Nazi capital of Berlin.




					warfarehistorynetwork.com
				




It doesn't necessarily make much sense but in the weird world of Russian politics... who knows or would be surprised?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Humphrey Bogart said:


> One must wonder, looking at this map, whether Putin took a page out of Stalin's book with his appointment of Dvornikov to command Russian Forces in Ukraine?
> 
> We know Russian Forces were each being commanded independently by their respective Military Districts prior to the change noted above.
> 
> Now the Southern Military District (the one who had the most operational success) is in command.
> 
> Stalin used to use similar tricks in WW2 when dealing with his Generals.
> 
> It doesn't necessarily make much sense but in the weird world of Russian politics... who knows or would be surprised?


If you can make sense of Putin's war plan, you might want to let his Generals know. So far, it looks like its just been a " go do stuff, win the war, and have it wrapped up by May 9th" direction written on the back of a cocktail napkin.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

rmc_wannabe said:


> If you can make sense of Putin's war plan, you might want to let his Generals know. So far, it looks like its just been a " go do stuff, win the war, and have it wrapped up by May 9th" direction written on the back of a cocktail napkin.


Some things that don't make sense militarily make complete sense politically.


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Some things that don't make sense militarily make complete sense politically.


Or to insane people…


----------



## tomydoom

KevinB said:


> Or to insane people…


Isn’t that what he said? “Politically”


----------



## brihard

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I find the economic aspect of this more interesting:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia has defaulted on its foreign debt, says S&P
> 
> 
> Russia has defaulted on its foreign debt because it offered bondholders payments in rubles, not dollars, credit ratings agency S&P has said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The long term ramifications of this are unknown but the US could quite possibly be setting themselves up for a pull away from the US Dollar being the World's Reserve Currency.
> 
> Here is what some other Countries/Regions are saying:
> 
> South Africa:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Is this the end of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency?
> 
> 
> The West’s actions against Russia since the war in Ukraine could signal an emerging new order that shuns the US for weaponising the dollar
> 
> 
> 
> 
> mg.co.za
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> United Kingdom:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Register to read | Financial Times
> 
> 
> News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ft.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Toppling the dollar as reserve currency risks harmful fragmentation
> 
> 
> Sanctions against Russia have spurred calls for an alternative holding, but this would only destabilise the financial system
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ft.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Saudi Arabia:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Opinion | How Biden Lost Saudi Arabia
> 
> 
> The President’s brand of liberal internationalism is proving to be costly.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.wsj.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In blow to Biden, Saudi Arabia considers helping China unseat US dollar as world's reserve currency
> 
> 
> Since 1974, Saudi Arabia has conducted all of its oil sales in U.S. dollars. That might be about to change, and President Joe Biden's snubbing of Arab leaders might be the cause.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.washingtonexaminer.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> India:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> US dollar losing currency among world's central banks; guess who's gaining
> 
> 
> An IMF research report shows a strong negative correlation between the reserve issuer's public debt and reserve shares.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.fortuneindia.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Why ‘de-dollarisation’ is imminent
> 
> 
> Sachchidanand Shukla writes: Diversification away from USD is meant to insulate economies from geopolitical risks
> 
> 
> 
> 
> indianexpress.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Brazil:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Brazil central bank quadruples exposure to Chinese yuan
> 
> 
> Brazil's central bank more than quadrupled its foreign reserves in Chinese yuan last year, policymakers reported on Thursday, as it trimmed holdings of U.S. dollars and euros and built Brazilian reserves of currency from its biggest trade partner.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> United Arab Emirates:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ‘Weaponisation’ to undermine dollar’s status as reserve currency
> 
> 
> Russia has been gradually reducing its dollar holdings since the imposition of Western sanctions following Moscow’s annexation of Crimea in 2014
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.zawya.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> China:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Can the yuan be a key world reserve currency?
> 
> 
> The yuan, or renminbi, China’s currency unit, has been touted as a contender to become a key world reserve currency on par with the greenback and surpassing the euro, yen and British pound. B…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> asiatimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How sanctions on Russia could lead to increased demand for China’s yuan
> 
> 
> Western sanctions cutting Moscow off from its foreign reserves give China greater incentive to move away from the US dollar and euro, and may push other countries to follow suit. Beijing may also be tempted to buy discounted Russian commodities as prices surge elsewhere.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.scmp.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Nations should work together to chip away at dollar’s dominance - Global Times
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.globaltimes.cn
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada:
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-reserve-currency-1.6382567
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia sanctions threaten to dilute dominance of U.S. dollar, says IMF official
> 
> 
> Gita Gopinath says sanctions could encourage emergence of small currency blocs based on trade between separate groups of countries
> 
> 
> 
> 
> financialpost.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Other:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The US dollar's global standing as the top reserve currency has lost ground to China's yuan and others, says IMF
> 
> 
> The dollar share of international reserves has declined over the past two decades, while the yuan has gained ground, according to an IMF report.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> markets.businessinsider.com


Mm hm. Very much the risk I highlighted when we discussed this in January.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Some things that don't make sense militarily make complete sense politically.


Gents, look at the current situation of the CAF - doesn't make sense militarily but to some, makes complete sense politically.....


----------



## Czech_pivo

brihard said:


> Mm hm. Very much the risk I highlighted when we discussed this in January.


I actually have, from a collectors point of interest, some old Russian bond certs from WWI issued in France that were from their default then when the Civil War broke.


----------



## FJAG

An interesting article by a senior US commander who has observed the Russian Army for years.



> I Commanded U.S. Army Europe. Here's What I Saw in the Russian and Ukrainian Armies.
> 
> 
> The two armies at war today couldn’t be more different.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thebulwark.com



🍻


----------



## Czech_pivo

FJAG said:


> An interesting article by a senior US commander who has observed the Russian Army for years.
> 
> 
> 
> 🍻


Great article - thanks for posting it!

I love this paragraph as it rings true in 2022 as much as it did in 1994 -

We then visited our host unit’s motor pool, stationed just outside Moscow. By that time, the Russian regimental commander and I had become friendly, and as he walked us toward the display of vehicles, he proclaimed that I was lucky to be one of the few Americans to see a Russian T-72 up close. With tongue firmly in cheek, I told the translator to tell the colonel that having fought in Desert Storm, *I had seen many T-72s—but none of them still had the turret attached.* The interpreter hesitated and asked me if I _really_ wanted to say that to his colonel. Nodding my head, I watched *my new friend’s face turn red, but then transition to a slight grin. “Those were the export versions we gave the Iraqis.”*


----------



## Spencer100

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I find the economic aspect of this more interesting:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia has defaulted on its foreign debt, says S&P
> 
> 
> Russia has defaulted on its foreign debt because it offered bondholders payments in rubles, not dollars, credit ratings agency S&P has said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The long term ramifications of this are unknown but the US could quite possibly be setting themselves up for a pull away from the US Dollar being the World's Reserve Currency.
> 
> Here is what some other Countries/Regions are saying:
> 
> South Africa:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Is this the end of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency?
> 
> 
> The West’s actions against Russia since the war in Ukraine could signal an emerging new order that shuns the US for weaponising the dollar
> 
> 
> 
> 
> mg.co.za
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> United Kingdom:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Register to read | Financial Times
> 
> 
> News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ft.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Toppling the dollar as reserve currency risks harmful fragmentation
> 
> 
> Sanctions against Russia have spurred calls for an alternative holding, but this would only destabilise the financial system
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ft.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Saudi Arabia:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Opinion | How Biden Lost Saudi Arabia
> 
> 
> The President’s brand of liberal internationalism is proving to be costly.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.wsj.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In blow to Biden, Saudi Arabia considers helping China unseat US dollar as world's reserve currency
> 
> 
> Since 1974, Saudi Arabia has conducted all of its oil sales in U.S. dollars. That might be about to change, and President Joe Biden's snubbing of Arab leaders might be the cause.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.washingtonexaminer.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> India:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> US dollar losing currency among world's central banks; guess who's gaining
> 
> 
> An IMF research report shows a strong negative correlation between the reserve issuer's public debt and reserve shares.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.fortuneindia.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Why ‘de-dollarisation’ is imminent
> 
> 
> Sachchidanand Shukla writes: Diversification away from USD is meant to insulate economies from geopolitical risks
> 
> 
> 
> 
> indianexpress.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Brazil:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Brazil central bank quadruples exposure to Chinese yuan
> 
> 
> Brazil's central bank more than quadrupled its foreign reserves in Chinese yuan last year, policymakers reported on Thursday, as it trimmed holdings of U.S. dollars and euros and built Brazilian reserves of currency from its biggest trade partner.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> United Arab Emirates:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ‘Weaponisation’ to undermine dollar’s status as reserve currency
> 
> 
> Russia has been gradually reducing its dollar holdings since the imposition of Western sanctions following Moscow’s annexation of Crimea in 2014
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.zawya.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> China:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Can the yuan be a key world reserve currency?
> 
> 
> The yuan, or renminbi, China’s currency unit, has been touted as a contender to become a key world reserve currency on par with the greenback and surpassing the euro, yen and British pound. B…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> asiatimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How sanctions on Russia could lead to increased demand for China’s yuan
> 
> 
> Western sanctions cutting Moscow off from its foreign reserves give China greater incentive to move away from the US dollar and euro, and may push other countries to follow suit. Beijing may also be tempted to buy discounted Russian commodities as prices surge elsewhere.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.scmp.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Nations should work together to chip away at dollar’s dominance - Global Times
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.globaltimes.cn
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada:
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-reserve-currency-1.6382567
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia sanctions threaten to dilute dominance of U.S. dollar, says IMF official
> 
> 
> Gita Gopinath says sanctions could encourage emergence of small currency blocs based on trade between separate groups of countries
> 
> 
> 
> 
> financialpost.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Other:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The US dollar's global standing as the top reserve currency has lost ground to China's yuan and others, says IMF
> 
> 
> The dollar share of international reserves has declined over the past two decades, while the yuan has gained ground, according to an IMF report.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> markets.businessinsider.com


Some of the tin foil hat stuff people are saying do have some basis in truth.  

"war is about ending US dollar dominance"

"this is will bring a global digital currency"

"war is about de-carbonizing the west"

Etc.

Not that I believe all of it....does make for interesting reading.


----------



## Spencer100

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513865988143521794


but more important....are those issue boots any good?


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513947721660608519


----------



## CBH99

MilEME09 said:


> I don't know if the public will let this one go, if they are gassing Civilians, people will demand more action, don't even Canada or Germany will be able to dither


The people won’t demand anything.  7 out of 10 people don’t have a clue what I’m talking about when I mention Bucha, the MSM will only mention it briefly between Covid fear mongering & total speculation disguised as ‘news.’

If the public didn’t demand action after Bucha, they won’t demand anything now.  

Gassing civilians is awful.  So is going block by block, raping/pillaging/murdering civilians who’s hands are bound, executing entire families in some cases.  

Both are genuinely awful, and they have in common that such acts can only be carried out by people who are lacking an important ‘something’ inside of them.

The other thing they have in common?  The average citizen here in North America doesn’t give a remote sh*t, nor will they pretend to.   


I don’t know if it’s selfishness, or apathy, or ignorance, or a combination of a variety of things.  I _do_ believe it’s a tangible, observable result of what 24/7 MSM with zero accountability & zero credibility has had on our society over the last 20 years or so.


----------



## KevinB

Soldier35 said:


> The work of Russian tanks to destroy snipers and grenade launchers of Ukraine, who are holed up in buildings. A Chechen soldier suppresses a firing point of the Ukrainian army with a grenade launcher.


SO firing into civilian buildings is supposed to be impressive - I guess it took you a long time to crap out the rape and murder.


----------



## Skysix

FJAG said:


> I believe it’s a tangible, observable result of what 24/7 MSM with zero accountability & zero credibility has had on our society over the last 20 years or so.


If the US wants to salvage their democracy they need to enforce the original agreement with the networks that gave them free bandwidth in return for one hour of news per day.

Then legally define the difference between News and Opinion and remove bandwidth or fine heavily for not presenting news/investigative journalism in that hour.

Additionally anti-trust activities against much of the tech world to breakup the incestious links between the social media platforms, removing the liability protection for websites that allow public posts to encourage true moderation (possibly allowing content to be free of liability only if posted with banner disclaimers on bot and trollish posts)

Increase the hours of schooling to bring back at least more history and social studies - coupled with masters (yes, more pay will be needed) requirements for teachers and changing school hours from 0700-1500 (ISH, generically) to 0900-1700 before adding the additional hours.


----------



## MilEME09

Bold move, reportedly out of food, and ammo, getting through hundreds of meters of enemy territory to link up with friendlies. Mad respect for that kind of bravery


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513969485669191690


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> Bold move, reportedly out of food, and ammo, getting through hundreds of meters of enemy territory to link up with friendlies. Mad respect for that kind of bravery
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513969485669191690


Around 1000 others surrendered, it's on Twitter.


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Around 1000 others surrendered, it's on Twitter.


So word about the 36th having ti surrender started about 14 hours ago, this break out 1 hour ago, we shall see how the next few hours shape up


----------



## The Bread Guy

"Sorry, buddy - pretty busy these days, you know how it is ..."








						German president says Kyiv did not want him to visit
					

A planned visit to Kyiv by German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier was not welcomed by Ukraine, he said on Tuesday, following a report that President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was critical of Steinmeier's historic advocacy of Western rapprochement with Russia.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Around 1000 others surrendered, it's on Twitter.


I'm sure LOADS o' folks have been and will be rounded up, but I've only seen that figure on pro-RUS amplifier sites like this, attributing the # to Donetsk rebels' info-machine ....








						Около тысячи украинских морпехов сдались в плен в Мариуполе — военкор
					

Около тысячи украинских военных из бригады пехоты Военно-морских сил Украины (ВМСУ) приняли в плен подразделения Министерства внутренних дел (МВД) и Министерства государственной безопасности (МГБ) Донецкой Народной Республики в Мариуполе, сообщил военный корреспондент Александр Сладков 12 апреля...




					rossaprimavera.ru
				



... with no matching stories on Donetsk rebel media (English or Russian), with Twitter generally sharing videos from the guy who wrote the original piece or running the figure as "uncofirmed" or without attribution, so barring better sources, to be charitable, I'll take that as an "initial reports, optimistic, C1 A1".


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

The Bread Guy said:


> I'm sure LOADS o' folks have been and will be rounded up, but I've only seen that figure on pro-RUS amplifier sites like this, attributing the # to Donetsk rebels' info-machine ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Около тысячи украинских морпехов сдались в плен в Мариуполе — военкор
> 
> 
> Около тысячи украинских военных из бригады пехоты Военно-морских сил Украины (ВМСУ) приняли в плен подразделения Министерства внутренних дел (МВД) и Министерства государственной безопасности (МГБ) Донецкой Народной Республики в Мариуполе, сообщил военный корреспондент Александр Сладков 12 апреля...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> rossaprimavera.ru
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ... with no matching stories on Donetsk rebel media (English or Russian), with Twitter generally sharing videos from the guy who wrote the original piece or running the figure as "uncofirmed" or without attribution, so barring better sources, to be charitable, I'll take that as an "initial reports, optimistic, C1 A1".




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513915120228966406


----------



## The Bread Guy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513915120228966406


Intriguing - @wargonzo also claims "There are at least two high-ranking retired American officers at (Mariupol's steel plant). According to our sources, they entered Mariupol together with PMC "Academy" and most likely are not active employees of the Pentagon."  Very cool source - thanks for another tile in the mosaic


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

The Bread Guy said:


> Intriguing - @wargonzo also claims "There are at least two high-ranking retired American officers at (Mariupol's steel plant). According to our sources, they entered Mariupol together with PMC "Academy" and most likely are not active employees of the Pentagon."  Very cool source - thanks for another tile in the mosaic


There is an audio phonecall of a British volunteer saying they have been trying to escape for 3 weeks but have been unable to.  This particularly individual "Cossackgundi" has surrendered with a group yesterday.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513821127000395779


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513997527753928705

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513996980787240970


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> The work of Russian tanks to destroy snipers and grenade launchers of Ukraine, who are holed up in buildings. A Chechen soldier suppresses a firing point of the Ukrainian army with a grenade launcher.


I think the primary mission of Russian tanks is to stay away from these!


----------



## MilEME09

And now a comedy break


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513995470355546122


----------



## Kirkhill

Production factories being relocated within Ukraine.









						PM: More than 250 companies already relocated under state program
					

More than 250 production facilities have already been relocated from the war zone to other regions under the state program. Of them, 121 facilities already work. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Kirkhill

And another hot tip from one of Soldier 35s buddies.  









						In Kharkiv region, Ukrainian army destroyed column of tanks on a ‘tip’ from Russian propagandist - journalist
					

In Kharkiv region, in the Izium direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed a column of tanks of the Kantemirov division, which was shown in a video shared by Russian propagandist Alexander Kots. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## The Bread Guy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> There is an audio phonecall of a British volunteer saying they have been trying to escape for 3 weeks but have been unable to.  This particularly individual "Cossackgundi" has surrendered with a group yesterday.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513821127000395779


Yeah, that's another name Pravda's been bandying about, too ...








						British mercenary surrendered near Mariupol
					

A 28-year-old British mercenary contracted by Aiden Aslin, known as "Johnny," said he "had no choice but to surrender to Russian forces.




					english.pravda.ru


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513992958122639366


----------



## Kirkhill

Another Stalinist purge.









						Putin purged large numbers of FSB agents in retribution for poor Ukraine intelligence, Russia expert says
					

Numerous officers in the branch of Russia's secret service responsible for Ukraine have either been arrested or fired, Bellingcat's Russia lead said.




					www.businessinsider.com
				











						Putin ‘purges’ 150 FSB agents in response to Russia’s botched war with Ukraine
					

A “Stalinist” mass purge of Russian secret intelligence is under way after more than 100 agents were removed from their jobs and the head of the department resp




					www.thetimes.co.uk
				











						Russian officers purged ahead of massive final offensive in Donbas
					

It emerged last night that Colonel General Sergei Beseda, head of the FSB's foreign intelligence unit, has been moved to Moscow's high-security Lefortovo prison after being on house arrest.




					www.dailymail.co.uk


----------



## Kirkhill

Russian tanks in the service of Ukraine


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u1sllc









						Ukrainian Army turns 5,000 Russian military vehicles into scrap - Forbes
					

The Ukrainian military has turned 5,000 Russian military vehicles into a pile of scrap metal within the seven weeks of the war (as of April 8). This mass could be used to rebuild the country's infrastructure, but this equipment must first be disposed of properly. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukrainian language video on how to unpack, prep and use the NLAW.

There are two modes for the NLAW apparently - Direct Attack and Over the Top .  I think that is one of the toggles described.  There is also a three second training period required before pressing the firing button.  I am guessing at least one of the other toggles is a safety?






And Cappy's take


----------



## Kirkhill

Hovering Drone dropping bombs on top of stationary Russian tank.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u22vit


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514004068489998345


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514025309011648519
‘Ukrainian’ Reapers etc…


----------



## MilEME09

Latest US defense package includes artillery systems, and humvees. Then early today M109s and Queen Mary's were spotting in a train heading for the polish, Ukrainian border.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Latest US defense package includes artillery systems, and humvees. Then early today M109s and Queen Mary's were spotting in a train heading for the polish, Ukrainian border.


Abrams and Bradley training being conduct currently.


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> Ukrainian language video on how to unpack, prep and use the NLAW.
> 
> There are two modes for the NLAW apparently - Direct Attack and Over the Top .  I think that is one of the toggles described.  There is also a three second training period required before pressing the firing button.  I am guessing at least one of the other toggles is a safety?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And Cappy's take


Is a lot cheaper and portable than a Javelin. Not sure the capability gap. How does modern Carl-G loads do in comparison (cost and effectiveness)


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> Is a lot cheaper and portable than a Javelin. Not sure the capability gap. How does modern Carl-G loads do in comparison (cost and effectiveness)



I don't know.

My sense is that the NLAW has a similar effect to the Javelin but a much shorter range.  I believe the NLAW is nominally 20 to 800 meters while the Javelin can reach beyond 2500 meters.

Carl Gustaf has a similar range band to the NLAW I think, but is a much lighter load.


----------



## suffolkowner

Kirkhill said:


> I don't know.
> 
> My sense is that the NLAW has a similar effect to the Javelin but a much shorter range.  I believe the NLAW is nominally 20 to 800 meters while the Javelin can reach beyond 2500 meters.
> 
> Carl Gustaf has a similar range band to the NLAW I think, but is a much lighter load.


The Gustaf has to be able to take a track out at least?


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> The Gustaf has to be able to take a track out at least?


Depends on the ammo


----------



## AlexanderM

MilEME09 said:


> Latest US defense package includes artillery systems, and humvees. Then early today M109s and Queen Mary's were spotting in a train heading for the polish, Ukrainian border.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513969834693992459


----------



## The Bread Guy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Around 1000 others surrendered, it's on Twitter.


That becomes semi-official now that the RUS MoD info-machine's said it out loud this morning 


> ... In Mariupol city, near the Illich Steelworks, 1,026 Ukrainian servicemen of the 36th Marine Brigade have voluntarily laid down their arms and surrendered as a result of a successful offensive by the Russian Armed Forces and Donetsk People's Republic militia units.  Among them, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have surrendered 162 officers, as well as 47 servicewomen.  151 wounded Ukrainian servicemen of the 36th Marine Brigade received primary medical care immediately  on the spot, after that they were all taken to the Mariupol city hospital for further treatment.


From this morning's official English brief (attached)


----------



## OldSolduer

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514025309011648519
> ‘Ukrainian’ Reapers etc…


I saw the word Predator and thought of this. I'd guess if a few of those were dropped in the Russian lines.....


----------



## Haggis

OldSolduer said:


> I saw the word Predator and thought of this. I'd guess if a few of those were dropped in the Russian lines.....


I'd guess they are better at night fighting than the Russians.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514204037335457802


----------



## The Bread Guy

Haggis said:


> I'd guess they are better at night fighting than the Russians.


Low bar as that seems to be these days ....


----------



## Czech_pivo

To me, it always seemed a bit fishy, too much of a coincidence. It could very well be Poles out for a witch hunt in the end.

Polish panel: Russia behind Polish leader’s plane crash​
A Polish government special commission has reinforced its earlier allegations that the 2010 plane crash that killed President Lech Kaczynski and 95 others in Russia was the result of Moscow’s assassination plan.

The latest of the commission’s reports, released Monday, alleges that an intentional detonation of planted explosives caused the April 10, 2010 crash of Soviet-made Tu-154M plane that killed Kaczynski, the first lady and 94 other government and armed forces figures as well as many prominent Poles.

Their deaths were the result of an “act of unlawful interference by the Russian side,” the commission’s head Antoni Macierewicz told a news conference.

“The main and indisputable proof of the interference was an explosion in the left wing ... followed by an explosion in the plane’s center,” said Macierewicz, who in 2015-2018 served as defense minister in Poland’s right-wing government.

The latest report once again drums up hostility toward Russia among some Poles, chiefly supporters of the nationalist government, it what seems to be an effort to consolidate the voter base of the Law and Justice party, which was founded by the Kaczynski twins in 2001.

Suspicions are additionally fuelled by Russia’s refusal to return the wreckage, which has complicated Poland’s investigation.

Polish panel: Russia behind Polish leader's plane crash


----------



## The Bread Guy

Remember these guys?








						How Syria's White Helmets became victims of an online propaganda machine
					

The Russia-backed campaign to link the volunteer rescuers with al-Qaida exposes how conspiracy theories take root: ‘It’s like a factory’




					www.theguardian.com
				



They're baaaaaaaaaaaaaaack out there (via RUS state media) to muddy the chem attack waters

#EverythingOldIsNewAgain


----------



## CBH99

Czech_pivo said:


> To me, it always seemed a bit fishy, too much of a coincidence. It could very well be Poles out for a witch hunt in the end.
> 
> Polish panel: Russia behind Polish leader’s plane crash​
> A Polish government special commission has reinforced its earlier allegations that the 2010 plane crash that killed President Lech Kaczynski and 95 others in Russia was the result of Moscow’s assassination plan.
> 
> The latest of the commission’s reports, released Monday, alleges that an intentional detonation of planted explosives caused the April 10, 2010 crash of Soviet-made Tu-154M plane that killed Kaczynski, the first lady and 94 other government and armed forces figures as well as many prominent Poles.
> 
> Their deaths were the result of an “act of unlawful interference by the Russian side,” the commission’s head Antoni Macierewicz told a news conference.
> 
> “The main and indisputable proof of the interference was an explosion in the left wing ... followed by an explosion in the plane’s center,” said Macierewicz, who in 2015-2018 served as defense minister in Poland’s right-wing government.
> 
> The latest report once again drums up hostility toward Russia among some Poles, chiefly supporters of the nationalist government, it what seems to be an effort to consolidate the voter base of the Law and Justice party, which was founded by the Kaczynski twins in 2001.
> 
> Suspicions are additionally fuelled by Russia’s refusal to return the wreckage, which has complicated Poland’s investigation.
> 
> Polish panel: Russia behind Polish leader's plane crash


So I’m under no illusion about the Russian government being dicks, led by someone who - whether his Ukraine ‘adventure’ is going well or not - we all thought/think was a fairly smart and forward thinking guy.  

But _this_ stuff always seems like a macho power play designed to piss off their neighbours.  The ultimate sacred ground of international relations, stomped on by the big Russian bear.


Perhaps I was naive.  I had always thought of Russia’s foreign policy moves over the last few years to actually be beneficial in some ways, as it kept the various US administrations from having a monopoly on world events.  

But Ukraine in 2014, refusing to return wreckage of a downed aircraft that killed a national leader because it may reveal a huge ‘no no’, assassinating a world leader in the first place, and now everything that’s been happening over the last 6 weeks or so?  

I was naive and wrong in thinking Russia had a desire to keep stability in its sphere of influence, and that it came from a source of professionalism.  

Ditto with Turkey.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514207366484566016


----------



## calculus

Very interesting article, contrasting Russian and Ukrainian armies, and how one (Ukrainian) adapted to  modern realities, while another (Russian) did not. 









						I Commanded U.S. Army Europe. Here's What I Saw in the Russian and Ukrainian Armies.
					

The two armies at war today couldn’t be more different.




					www.thebulwark.com


----------



## KevinB

calculus said:


> I Commanded U.S. Army Europe. Here's What I Saw in the Russian and Ukrainian Armies.
> 
> 
> The two armies at war today couldn’t be more different.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thebulwark.com


Great article posted yesterday


----------



## calculus

KevinB said:


> Great article posted yesterday


Ah, sorry. I guess I didn't scroll back enough pages.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514267715879452674


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514265465199247370


----------



## Blackadder1916

calculus said:


> Very interesting article, contrasting Russian and Ukrainian armies, and how one (Ukrainian) adapted to  modern realities, *while another (Russian) did not.*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I Commanded U.S. Army Europe. Here's What I Saw in the Russian and Ukrainian Armies.
> 
> 
> The two armies at war today couldn’t be more different.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thebulwark.com



It depends, I suppose, on what are the "modern realities".  Russia's military (similar to Canada's) is a reflection of its society and (more so) its political environment.  They have (had?) just the military to suit their purposes.  If an underlying, continuing facet of their government for the past three decades is kleptocracy, then why would anyone be surprised that commanders at all levels have picked the bones clean for personal gain.  They certainly don't have any expectation of a comfortable and respectable life following retirement unless they feather the nest while serving.  And as much as the Russian info machine has proclaimed NATO encroachment as a threat to their borders, much of Russia's military operations since the dissolution of the USSR has been internal security (or nibbling at the edges of its former empire).  Dictators don't have much desire to develop militaries that think for themselves and are capable of complex operations.  If they had followed the example of Ukraine (and it hasn't just been Ukraine's military that improved in the past several years), then there may have been a more robust opposition to Putin.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514267715879452674


There is the potential, outside of the US and possibly the UK and France, that all other NATO countries that are currently willing/able to provide equipment to the Ukrainians that they are getting close to the point that they have little left in the cupboards to give without seriously emptying their own military's needs. 

The Germans may have old East German equipment left to give, no idea of the readiness of this equipment, but for many of the others, they may not have a lot left to give.  Bullets and small arms?  Most likely, but heavy equipment, probably not much left.  

Unless serious training is given to the Ukrainians on US equipment very soon, they may not have the heavy equipment necessary to continue such a robust defence.


----------



## Kirkhill

Czech_pivo said:


> There is the potential, outside of the US and possibly the UK and France, that all other NATO countries that are currently willing/able to provide equipment to the Ukrainians that they are getting close to the point that they have little left in the cupboards to give without seriously emptying their own military's needs.
> 
> The Germans may have old East German equipment left to give, no idea of the readiness of this equipment, but for many of the others, they may not have a lot left to give.  Bullets and small arms?  Most likely, but heavy equipment, probably not much left.
> 
> Unless serious training is given to the Ukrainians on US equipment very soon, they may not have the heavy equipment necessary to continue such a robust defence.



The Germans are pleading poverty - nothing left in the lockers.   I believe them.  Canada and Germany have followed the same trajectories.
Britain, France and Italy, have boutique arsenals that keep their own armies equipped.  See a couple hundred Challengers, LeClercs and Arietes each.
The only arsenal available is the US.  They need their own stocks as well so the question is how much last generation gear do they have immediately to hand.  And how much money is the rest of the world willing to donate to hand warehoused kit like Abrams and Leo 1s to Ukraine.


----------



## Skysix

Czech_pivo said:


> There is the potential, outside of the US and possibly the UK and France, that all other NATO countries that are currently willing/able to provide equipment to the Ukrainians that they are getting close to the point that they have little left in the cupboards to give without seriously emptying their own military's needs.
> 
> The Germans may have old East German equipment left to give, no idea of the readiness of this equipment, but for many of the others, they may not have a lot left to give.  Bullets and small arms?  Most likely, but heavy equipment, probably not much left.


Training is nowhere near as much of an issue as physically getting them to the staging areas for the fight. 

There are literally hundreds of semi-obsolete early model M1's in storage stateside. But how do you get them there quickly? Even if the US government requisitioned a bunch of RO/RO ships, taking them into Odessa is not viable without a large naval squadron, likely a carrier based task force. Which Turkey will not allow and would be a much more serious provocation

That said, rail from a Polish port might get them to the Ukraine  border but after that the rail system would need defending against Russian cruise missiles and aerial attack. Road convoys would also likely be attacked and would require shipping a large number of the tanks on tractor/trailer sets and multiple convoy round trips.


----------



## Haggis

Skysix said:


> There are literally hundreds of semi-obsolete early model M1's in storage stateside. But how do you get them there quickly? Even if the US government requisitioned a bunch of RO/RO ships, taking them into Odessa is not viable without a large naval squadron, likely a carrier based task force. Which Turkey will not allow and would be a much more serious provocation.


Despite with the Russians might think, the Black Sea is still international waters.


Skysix said:


> That said, rail from a Polish port might get them to the Ukraine  border but after that the rail system would need defending against Russian cruise missiles and aerial attack. Road convoys would also likely be attacked and would require shipping a large number of the tanks on tractor/trailer sets and multiple convoy round trips.


I doubt the Russians would want to risk more aircraft that far west, particularly close to the Polish border where an error in navigation or targeting could escalate things as well.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> The Germans are pleading poverty - nothing left in the lockers.   I believe them.  Canada and Germany have followed the same trajectories.
> Britain, France and Italy, have boutique arsenals that keep their own armies equipped.  See a couple hundred Challengers, LeClercs and Arietes each.
> The only arsenal available is the US.  They need their own stocks as well so the question is how much last generation gear do they have immediately to hand.  And how much money is the rest of the world willing to donate to hand warehoused kit like Abrams and Leo 1s to Ukraine.


Its the 'lead time' that is going to be a major deciding factor here.  

The time that it takes to; 1) make the decision to send, 2) see what's available to send, 3) agree on what to send, 4) agree on the number to send, 5) agree on how to send, 6) agree on when to send, 7) agree on where to send, 8) agree to who to train, 9) agree to how to train, 10) agree on where to train, 11) agree on how many to train, 12) agree on length of training, 13) agree on 'one and done' training or ongoing, etc, etc, etc, etc.

Somewhere (most likely in a number of places) analysis is being done on various 'burn down' (to use a banking PM phase) scenarios on how long the Ukrainians (and the Russians) can maintain various operational tempos based on existing stock, possible captured stock and net new donated stocks of heavy equipment.  Eventually the cupboard will run bare long before they run out of available manpower.  

The timelines to build/replenish existing equipment is vastly longer than it is to destroy/use existing equipment.  That phase that I used a few days back that my Grandfather used to say to me, 'It's easier to destroy something than it is to build something' is plainly evident in modern warfare. In today's war's the first to run out of equipment becomes the loser - even if they've lost no land or even hold the enemies land.


----------



## Haggis

Czech_pivo said:


> Its the 'lead time' that is going to be a major deciding factor here.
> 
> The time that it takes to; 1) make the decision to send, 2) see what's available to send, 3) agree on what to send, 4) agree on the number to send, 5) agree on how to send, 6) agree on when to send, 7) agree on where to send, 8) agree to who to train, 9) agree to how to train, 10) agree on where to train, 11) agree on how many to train, 12) agree on length of training, 13) agree on 'one and done' training or ongoing, etc, etc, etc, etc.


The military staff of the various contributing nations should be leaning forward in regards to a lot of this.  When the political leadership pulls the trigger on equipment donations/sales, they don't want to be caught waiting for their military organizations to then load the gun.


----------



## Kirkhill

Czech_pivo said:


> Eventually the cupboard will run bare long before they run out of available manpower.



And this has been the argument for a long, long time against "high-tech" solutions.  The more "Byzantine" the solution becomes the less sustainable it is.... and the sooner we get back to rocks and pointy sticks.

Interesting thought though...global disarmament by way of Ukraine.  Everybody throws everything forwards to their preferred combatant until all the cupboards are bare.

Unless of course Tahiti decides it doesn't want to play and is left with the highest technology force on the planet.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

How fast can we build LAV 3 for them?


----------



## GR66

Kirkhill said:


> And this has been the argument for a long, long time against "high-tech" solutions.  The more "Byzantine" the solution becomes the less sustainable it is.... and the sooner we get back to rocks and pointy sticks.
> 
> Interesting thought though...global disarmament by way of Ukraine.  Everybody throws everything forwards to their preferred combatant until all the cupboards are bare.
> 
> Unless of course Tahiti decides it doesn't want to play and is left with the highest technology force on the planet.


I guess all those that have been saying for years that the next war will be a "come as you are" war and we should be prepared were correct.

Too bad it only seems to have been people on internet forums, not political and military leaders that have been banging this drum!


----------



## Gunnar

Kirkhill said:


> And this has been the argument for a long, long time against "high-tech" solutions.  The more "Byzantine" the solution becomes the less sustainable it is.... and the sooner we get back to rocks and pointy sticks.
> 
> Interesting thought though...global disarmament by way of Ukraine.  Everybody throws everything forwards to their preferred combatant until all the cupboards are bare.
> 
> Unless of course Tahiti decides it doesn't want to play and is left with the highest technology force on the planet.


I have been wondering cui bono of late.  A disarmed and isolated Russia, held in contempt by the rest of the world, bad demographics and a diminished younger generation; youth frequently being the ones that foment change.  The only stable centralized power structure left being NATO countries.  Throw in a good dose of inflation, oil and food shortages.  Cui bono?  What would make you want this end state? People have been saying how effing stupid the Russian attack was, so why do it?  How does Russia prosper by destroying their future?


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Everybody throws everything forwards to their preferred combatant until all the cupboards are bare.



I hope not.  Someone else is always watching, thinking "let's you and him fight", waiting to pick up the pieces.  Russia would know; it's what Stalin wanted to happen in Europe between Germany, France, and UK.


----------



## Haggis

Gunnar said:


> People have been saying how effing stupid the Russian attack was, so why do it?  How does Russia prosper by destroying their future?


The Russian political leadership believed this would be a cakewalk.  The Russian military leadership said nothing to influence the political decision.  Heck, they both had NATO and the west believing that Ukraine would quickly fall to the invincible Russian Armed Forces.

But as many on this forum know first-hand, no plan survives contact.


----------



## Gunnar

Haggis said:


> But as many on this forum know first-hand, no plan survives contact


Von Moltke, one of my faves.

But yes, the simple answer is usually the best.  Still, dogged persistence in the face of extremely limited progress does make one wonder...


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Czech_pivo said:


> Its the 'lead time' that is going to be a major deciding factor here.
> 
> The time that it takes to; 1) make the decision to send, 2) see what's available to send, 3) agree on what to send, 4) agree on the number to send, 5) agree on how to send, 6) agree on when to send, 7) agree on where to send, 8) agree to who to train, 9) agree to how to train, 10) agree on where to train, 11) agree on how many to train, 12) agree on length of training, 13) agree on 'one and done' training or ongoing, etc, etc, etc, etc.
> 
> Somewhere (most likely in a number of places) analysis is being done on various 'burn down' (to use a banking PM phase) scenarios on how long the Ukrainians (and the Russians) can maintain various operational tempos based on existing stock, possible captured stock and net new donated stocks of heavy equipment.  Eventually the cupboard will run bare long before they run out of available manpower.
> 
> The timelines to build/replenish existing equipment is vastly longer than it is to destroy/use existing equipment.  That phase that I used a few days back that my Grandfather used to say to me, 'It's easier to destroy something than it is to build something' is plainly evident in modern warfare. In today's war's the first to run out of equipment becomes the loser - even if they've lost no land or even hold the enemies land.


It's not just the vehicle itself.  A bigger concern is ammunition, parts and fuel.

You're introducing different ammunition types that need to be accounted for.  You're introducing different vehicles with different parts and maintenance requirements.

You're also introducing different vehicles that may have different fuel requirements.  One of the advantages of using equipment built by Ivan is that it isn't usually very picky when it comes to maintenance and things like gasoline.

American equipment, some of it's pretty picky.


----------



## Kirkhill

Gunnar said:


> I have been wondering cui bono of late.  A disarmed and isolated Russia, held in contempt by the rest of the world, bad demographics and a diminished younger generation; youth frequently being the ones that foment change.  The only stable centralized power structure left being NATO countries.  Throw in a good dose of inflation, oil and food shortages.  Cui bono?  What would make you want this end state? People have been saying how effing stupid the Russian attack was, so why do it?  How does Russia prosper by destroying their future?



My sense on it is China benefits if Russia is trimmed back to its Muscovy roots.  Then the Eastern and Central Districts (Siberia) become power vacuums.  China doesn't even have to march into the territory.  It can start migrating and buying its way in, in a civilized manner.  And, as I noted earlier, within a year we could see China demanding a seat on the Arctic Council.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> People have been saying how effing stupid the Russian attack was, so why do it?  How does Russia prosper by destroying their future?



People have been situating the estimate.  Do it again, but using "Putin's interests" in place of "Russia's interests".


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> It's not just the vehicle itself.  A bigger concern is ammunition, parts and fuel.
> 
> You're introducing different ammunition types that need to be accounted for.  You're introducing different vehicles with different parts and maintenance requirements.
> 
> You're also introducing different vehicles that may have different fuel requirements.  One of the advantages of using equipment built by Ivan is that it isn't usually very picky when it comes to maintenance and things like gasoline.
> 
> American equipment, some of it's pretty picky.


Keep in mind Ukrainian forces have been trained on a lot of US Equipment, either in Germany or in the USA.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514305684309004295


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Keep in mind Ukrainian forces have been trained on a lot of US Equipment, either in Germany or in the USA.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514305684309004295


That's true, but the "bits & pieces" stuff'll remain, even if the fighting continues into the medium term.  Any help is better than none, for sure, but there's "throw stuff in they can use right f@!#$%^&*(g now" vs. "throw stuff in they can fit into their current system, and maybe keep & sustain down the road".


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514305415277944839


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> That's true, but the "bits & pieces" stuff'll remain, even if the fighting continues into the medium term.  Any help is better than none, for sure, but there's "throw stuff in they can use right f@!#$%^&*(g now" vs. "throw stuff in they can fit into their current system, and maybe keep & sustain down the road".


At this point the only sustainable systems are NATO equipment -- the ammunition, and spares for former WP era equipment are being drained at a significant pace.

We have warstocks in Europe for 3 Corps worth of Armor - we cracked the seal to allow V Corps not to need flyover (and ship over) equipment - but there are more than enough ABCT's worth of equipment, ammo, and spares to fight for years.

Also we have the ability to train Ukrainian personnel in Poland (another places in EU that their leaders would prefer not to admit to), and the US on these items.


----------



## Quirky

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514305415277944839


Trudeau opening his mouth bears no significance on anything.


----------



## KevinB

Quirky said:


> Trudeau opening his mouth bears no significance on anything.


Well he parroted POTUS quicker than nearly any other leader.


----------



## Haggis

KevinB said:


> Well he parroted POTUS quicker than nearly any other leader.


That's the advantage of being in the same time zone as POTUS.  Europe is already closed for the day.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1511255837389561856


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514291493955121161


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514305415277944839



I do wish he would keep his mouth shut unless he plans to whip out his F18s.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Trudeau opening his mouth bears no significance on anything.



Reminds me of a small kid in a playground talking tough while standing next to his friend, the biggest kid in the playground.


----------



## KevinB

Brad Sallows said:


> Reminds me of a small kid in a playground talking tough while standing next to his friend, the biggest kid in the playground.


I think you meant hiding behind his Dad...


----------



## TheProfessional

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514291493955121161


Strange to see videos like this with no nasheed or Allahu Akbar haha


----------



## Retired AF Guy

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514291493955121161


Probably learned it all playing Call of Duty or some other video game.


----------



## Spencer100

You sunk my battleship!  lol

We will see.  If true the second largest ship to be sunk since WW2.....



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514330785272184840


----------



## Spencer100

Spencer100 said:


> You sunk my battleship!  lol
> 
> We will see.  If true the second largest ship to be sunk since WW2.....
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514330785272184840


opps she's bigger than the ARA Belgrano...so biggest.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Spencer100 said:


> You sunk my battleship!  lol
> 
> We will see.  If true the second largest ship to be sunk since WW2.....
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514330785272184840



Did the ship actually sink?


----------



## Spencer100

Jarnhamar said:


> Did the ship actually sink?


it's a twitter.....who knows.  They do think it was hit and is burning.  It would take a lot it sink it.  Its large ship.

If it does sink the Ukrainian PR victory is huge.  Russian warship....go fuck yourself.   Here have a missile.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Spencer100 said:


> it's a twitter.....who knows.  They do think it was hit and is burning.  It would take a lot it sink it.  Its large ship.
> 
> If it does sink the Ukrainian PR victory is huge.  Russian warship....go fuck yourself.   Here have a missile.


If they hit this ship or sunk this ship, it certainly goes a long to making Odessa safer from an amphib assault.


----------



## Kirkhill

> In combat operations in parts of the south-eastern regions of Ukraine, separate units of the 103rd, 109th, 113th, 125th, and 127th Motorized Rifle Regiments operate as part of a grouping of enemy troops. They were recruited during the forcible mobilization in the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Structurally, these regiments consist of up to five 300-strong battalions. Only 5-10% of personnel have some combat experience. The regiment’s command consists of Russian officers. These groups are facing significant issues with provision of weapons, ammunition, and medicine.











						In east, south of Ukraine, Russians ready for offensive action - General Staff
					

Russian invaders are systemically hitting Ukrainian infrastructure in Kharkiv and Zaporizhia regions with missiles and bombs. In Donetsk and Tavria directions, the enemy is ready to go on an offensive. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> At this point the only sustainable systems are NATO equipment -- the ammunition, and spares for former WP era equipment are being drained at a significant pace.
> 
> We have warstocks in Europe for 3 Corps worth of Armor - we cracked the seal to allow V Corps not to need flyover (and ship over) equipment - but there are more than enough ABCT's worth of equipment, ammo, and spares to fight for years.
> 
> Also we have the ability to train Ukrainian personnel in Poland (another places in EU that their leaders would prefer not to admit to), and the US on these items.


Good points.  Then NATO'll have to get its act together quick because at one point, if they get enough Western equipment, they'll say, "hey, we're good to get your hand-me-downs, and  your training, and do things your way, but not good enough to be on the team?"


----------



## Kirkhill

April 12



> The Ukrainian army pushed the line of fire from Kryvyi Rih district deep into Kherson region, liberating more than 15 populated localities.
> "Thanks to the valor of our military, the front line now is not on the border between Kryvyi Rih district and Kherson region, it has been advanced much deeper into Kherson region. More than 15 populated localities have been liberated. Enemies try to hit back, but our fighters destroy enemy hardware and manpower," Head of the Kryvyi Rih Military Administration Oleksandr Vilkul said during the nationwide telethon, Ukrinform reports.
> According to Vilkul, some of the liberated villages in Kherson region have been controlled by the invaders for a week, others for a month, and locals are telling horrible stories.
> At present, life is being restored in these localities: food and medicines are delivered there. Police, power engineers start to work, and water mains are repaired.











						Ukraine’s Armed Forces liberate more than 15 localities, advance deep into Kherson region
					

The Ukrainian army pushed the line of fire from Kryvyi Rih district deep into Kherson region, liberating more than 15 populated localities. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Weinie

Humphrey Bogart said:


> It's not just the vehicle itself.  A bigger concern is ammunition, parts and fuel.
> 
> You're introducing different ammunition types that need to be accounted for.  You're introducing different vehicles with different parts and maintenance requirements.
> 
> You're also introducing different vehicles that may have different fuel requirements.  One of the advantages of using equipment built by Ivan is that it isn't usually very picky when it comes to maintenance and things like gasoline.
> 
> American equipment, some of it's pretty picky.


Interesting conjecture here. How much of the above is self-imposed, and does a real war expedite/make obsolete some of the operational/logistical/maintenance/bureaucratic hindrances processes that we have established. I don't know the answer, but necessity breeds innovation.


----------



## Good2Golf

Skysix said:


> Training is nowhere near as much of an issue as physically getting them to the staging areas for the fight.
> 
> There are literally hundreds of semi-obsolete early model M1's in storage stateside. But how do you get them there quickly? Even if the US government requisitioned a bunch of RO/RO ships, taking them into Odessa is not viable without a large naval squadron, likely a carrier based task force. Which Turkey will not allow and would be a much more serious provocation
> 
> That said, rail from a Polish port might get them to the Ukraine  border but after that the rail system would need defending against Russian cruise missiles and aerial attack. Road convoys would also likely be attacked and would require shipping a large number of the tanks on tractor/trailer sets and multiple convoy round trips.


USAF was pumping 56 C-17 A DAY into Poland to deploy 18 AB Corps…sounds like a two-day mission.


----------



## suffolkowner

Kirkhill said:


> I do wish he would keep his mouth shut unless he plans to whip out his F18s.


Yep being a joke wouldn't be so bad if he didn't continue to confirm it everytime he opens his mouth.

We could move a dozen F-18's to Eastern Europe to pick up the slack of Eastern European countries transferring their Mig-29's
We could move/transfer our Leo2's to Eastern Europe to pick up the slack of Eastern European countries transferring their T-72's


----------



## KevinB

Skysix said:


> Training is nowhere near as much of an issue as physically getting them to the staging areas for the fight.
> 
> There are literally hundreds of semi-obsolete early model M1's in storage stateside. But how do you get them there quickly?


All M1 models have been brought up to M1A2 standard - there are no old M1 in inventory any longer, and nearly all M1A1 models have been upgraded to M1A2 SepV3.

The point remains their are over 1k in War Stock in Germany, equipping V Corp's was a drop in the bucket


Good2Golf said:


> USAF was pumping 56 C-17 A DAY into Poland to deploy 18 AB Corps…sounds like a two-day mission.


153 was the one day record - over half the fleet.

But flying heavy kit over makes no sense, especially when we have it in Europe already -- lighter consumables and troops are much better to fly -- we can ship more heavy equipment if needed - and the Army (note Army) maintains ships for that purpose.


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> But flying heavy kit over makes no sense, especially when we have it in Europe already -- lighter consumables and troops are much better to fly -- we can ship more heavy equipment if needed - and the Army (note Army) maintains ships for that purpose.


Was thinking of moving M1A1s (to ‘donate’), although you dispelled that so there isn’t a case to practice another round of USAF moving enough ‘ton-miles’ of stuff to equate to almost the the entire RF invasion force inside UKR…not sure even China could come close to doing that!


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Weinie said:


> Interesting conjecture here. How much of the above is self-imposed, and does a real war expedite/make obsolete some of the operational/logistical/maintenance/bureaucratic hindrances processes that we have established. I don't know the answer, but necessity breeds innovation.


What I am talking about isn't really bureaucracy though.

T72s carry 125mm ammunition while the Abrams carries 120mm ammunition.

Parts are also an issue, everything from track pads to optics.

Fuel is a particular concern not because the Abrams can't take the fuel (its turbine engine can drink anything) but because it can, it drinks fuel like an open bar which greatly increases the number of trucks it needs to sustain itself and what it would cost a Nation like Ukraine to sustain it.

These aren't bureaucratic problems but real logistics problems that need to be thought about when considering equipment suitability.

We've seen what happens when a Country goes on the offence and doesn't have the trucks to satisfy its consumption demands 😉


----------



## MilEME09

Jarnhamar said:


> Did the ship actually sink?


Unconfirmed that she is sinking as we speak


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514355085958070272


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> What I am talking about isn't really bureaucracy though.
> 
> T72s carry 125mm ammunition while the Abrams carries 120mm ammunition.


 How many countries can supply 125mm ammo to Ukraine?


Humphrey Bogart said:


> Parts are also an issue, everything from track pads to optics.
> 
> Fuel is a particular concern not because the Abrams can't take the fuel (it's turbine engine can drink anything) but because it can, it drinks fuel like an open bar which greatly increases the number of trucks it needs to sustain itself and what it would cost a Nation like Ukraine to sustain it.
> 
> These aren't bureaucratic problems but real logistics problems that need to be thought about when considering equipment suitability.
> 
> We've seen what happens when a Country goes on the offence and doesn't have the trucks to satisfy it's consumption demands 😉


We donated another $800M of gear today.

  We can fill Ukraine from the Arsenal of Democracy...


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

KevinB said:


> How many countries can supply 125mm ammo to Ukraine?
> 
> We donated another $800M of gear today.
> 
> We can fill Ukraine from the Arsenal of Democracy...


No disagreement, just explaining what would need to be planned for.  Sustainment is just an  Algebra problem at the end of the day.

I'm certain along with that $800 million, you could also provide a couple of supply chain managers who could also work the math out for them 😉


----------



## MilEME09

MilEME09 said:


> Unconfirmed that she is sinking as we speak
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514355085958070272




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514373045695225867


----------



## Weinie

Humphrey Bogart said:


> What I am talking about isn't really bureaucracy though.
> 
> T72s carry 125mm ammunition while the Abrams carries 120mm ammunition.
> 
> Parts are also an issue, everything from track pads to optics.
> 
> Fuel is a particular concern not because the Abrams can't take the fuel (it's turbine engine can drink anything) but because it can, it drinks fuel like an open bar which greatly increases the number of trucks it needs to sustain itself and what it would cost a Nation like Ukraine to sustain it.
> 
> These aren't bureaucratic problems but real logistics problems that need to be thought about when considering equipment suitability.
> 
> We've seen what happens when a Country goes on the offence and doesn't have the trucks to satisfy it's consumption demands 😉


I'm not arguing your logic, it makes sense from what we have been conditioned to expect. I do propose that we will see unexpected outcomes/approaches from this war, which will engender some sacred cows to be BBQ'ed.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Weinie said:


> I'm not arguing your logic, it makes sense from what we have been conditioned to expect. I do propose that we will see unexpected outcomes/approaches from this war, which will engender some sacred cows to be BBQ'ed.


Try sailing around the World during a COVID-19 Pandemic, don't worry, I'm well versed in "making it up as you go"  🤣


----------



## ModlrMike

If UKR truly has sunk Moskva, then this is a huge propaganda victory.


----------



## Jarnhamar

MilEME09 said:


> Unconfirmed that she is sinking as we speak
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514355085958070272




It won't be long before the Russian ministry of environment tweets that Russia successfully sunk one of their ships to create a vibrant and healthy artificial coral reef.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

KevinB said:


> Keep in mind Ukrainian forces have been trained on a lot of US Equipment, either in Germany or in the USA.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514305684309004295


What about civilian and ex-military helicopters like the Huges 500D or even Bell 412?


----------



## AlexanderM

Did they not also receive Harpoon missiles from the UK?? There are multiple sources.









						Britain to send anti-ship missiles and armoured vehicles to Ukraine
					

To ensure the protection of Ukrainian troops as Vladimir Putin's invasion ramps up, Britain will provide armoured vehicles which can withstand explosive devices, rockets and rifle fire.




					www.dailymail.co.uk
				




"According to sources, the UK has also agreed to send Harpoon anti-ship missiles in a bid to break the Russian navy’s siege of Black Sea ports."


----------



## MilEME09

Jarnhamar said:


> It won't be long before the Russian ministry of environment tweets that Russia successfully sunk one of their ships to create a vibrant and healthy artificial coral reef.


A report from a Russian Twitter has reported the ships magazine was hit and is on fire.


----------



## Spencer100

AlexanderM said:


> Did they not also receive Harpoon missiles from the UK?? There are multiple sources.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Britain to send anti-ship missiles and armoured vehicles to Ukraine
> 
> 
> To ensure the protection of Ukrainian troops as Vladimir Putin's invasion ramps up, Britain will provide armoured vehicles which can withstand explosive devices, rockets and rifle fire.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.dailymail.co.uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> "According to sources, the UK has also agreed to send Harpoon anti-ship missiles in a bid to break the Russian navy’s siege of Black Sea ports."


Better to say it was sunk (if it is) with a home grown missile.  Better for PR, better for the governments that are or are not supplying anti ship missiles.  Plus a real morale boost for the home team.  The ship that got the island got our missile up the....  You can't write stuff like that.


----------



## Lumber

I'm hopeful, but given how old the Slava's are, I wouldn't be surprised if this was an internal fire cause by a non-combat related incident/mechanical fault.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Lumber said:


> I'm hopeful, but given how old the Slava's are, I wouldn't be surprised if this was an internal fire cause by a non-combat related incident/mechanical fault.


Stop! Your story isn't nearly as cool!


----------



## AlexanderM

Spencer100 said:


> Better to say it was sunk (if it is) with a home grown missile.  Better for PR, better for the governments that are or are not supplying anti ship missiles.  Plus a real morale boost for the home team.  The ship that got the island got our missile up the....  You can't write stuff like that.


I agree completely!! I've just noticed some sources being skeptical, saying they only had 1 test battery for the Neptune and questioning if they had any inventory of missiles and to that I'm thinking, don't they also have Harpoons? It is better to say they used the Neptune and leave the UK out of it.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

AlexanderM said:


> I agree completely!! I've just noticed some sources being skeptical, saying they only had 1 test battery for the Neptune and questioning if they had any inventory of missiles and to that I'm thinking, don't they also have Harpoons? It is better to say they used the Neptune and leave the UK out of it.


It's also possible Moskva had a fire and a or ammunition magazine exploded.  Which is what the Russians version of events is.  The Ship is 40 years old after all.

Who the hecks knows ATT? I'm skeptical of these claims because the Ukrainians have lied about this very thing before.


----------



## Prairie canuck

So Russia just lost their Flagship to Ukraine who doesn't have an active navy... D'oh...


----------



## McG

Ukraine being the first to announce a catastrophic event on a Russian warship gives some weight to the idea that they caused it.


----------



## MilEME09

Russia says they abandoned ship

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514387287479668742

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514388830329217031


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

McG said:


> Ukraine being the first to announce a catastrophic event on a Russian warship gives some weight to the idea that they caused it.


But again, just speculation 😉


----------



## Kirkhill

I've always been impressed by those 8 very large targets lining each of the port and starboard gunwales.  They qualify as ammunition don't they?


----------



## MilEME09

Anyone know Russian?


----------



## Kirkhill

Britain and Poland getting on well enough according to the Poles









						Poland and Britain have never been closer
					

Vladimir Putin’s miscalculated attack has strengthened the age-old bond between our two countries




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				






> Poland and Britain have never been closer​Vladimir Putin’s miscalculated attack has strengthened the age-old bond between our two countries
> 
> PIOTR WILCZEK13 April 2022 • 6:00pm
> 
> The Russian invasion of Ukraine is an unprovoked act of aggression against a sovereign, democratic state. It has brought pain and suffering to millions of innocent people. But the Kremlin’s miscalculated attack has unintentionally prompted the best possible response: relentless, heartening Ukrainian resistance, an unprecedented show of solidarity from around the world, the awakening of many countries to the dangers posed by Vladimir Putin’s regime, and the strengthening of alliances – including the age-old partnership between Poland and the United Kingdom.
> 
> Our relationship dates back to the 11th century, but was consolidated in the heat of the Second World War. We first formalised our military alliance on the eve of the German invasion of Poland with the Agreement of Mutual Assistance, and it was reinforced during the war. Not only was Britain home to the Polish Armed Forces in the West, but also to the legitimate Polish state representation, which survived the war and the Soviet occupation.
> Advertisement
> 
> We fought side by side in the Battle of Britain, which turned the tide of the war. “Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to so few,” said Sir Winston Churchill, describing the defenders of British skies. And our cooperation was evident in many other areas, including intelligence sharing – a crucial factor in the success of Ukraine’s defence today. Polish cryptologist Marian Rejewski broke the Enigma code 90 years ago and, with his colleagues, passed their work to Alan Turing, laying the foundations for the mass code-breaking effort at Bletchley.
> 
> This Polish-British cooperation has become even stronger in modern times. After Poland toppled the communist regime and regained its sovereignty, it soon joined Nato, signing bilateral defence deals with the UK – including the 2017 treaty, at the time only the second such treaty that Britain had with a European Union member state. Our two countries also served together in military missions in Iraq and Afghanistan and as part of Nato’s Enhanced Forward Presence.
> 
> The strength of our bilateral alliance has perhaps been demonstrated best over the past year, with the UK deploying military personnel to Poland – first to help stop the migration crisis orchestrated by Putin’s accomplice Alexander Lukashenko, and then to shore up Nato’s eastern flank against Russian aggression. And now, a new chapter in our relationship begins.
> 
> Last week, as the situation in Ukraine became increasingly grave, Polish President Andrzej Duda met Boris Johnson in London. The two agreed to deepen cooperation between our armed forces, intelligence organisations and defence industries. We will increase our militaries’ exercises, step up work to counter cyber threats and disinformation, and deepen the defence strategy and security threat analysis cooperation. We will boost bilateral trade through high-level intergovernmental dialogue and a new expert task force. Crucially, we will work to facilitate the delivery of lethal and non-lethal aid to Ukraine. The UK will also increase financial aid to help support Ukrainian refugees in Poland.
> 
> Poland and the UK, along with other European states, are demonstrating leadership in their support for Ukraine. Today, the Polish, Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian presidents travelled to Kyiv to show solidarity with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and the Ukrainian people. It followed a visit by the Polish, Czech and Slovenian prime ministers last month, which conveyed the EU’s unequivocal support.
> Meanwhile, in Kyiv last Saturday, Mr Johnson said the Ukrainians had shown the courage of a lion and that Mr Zelensky was its roar. The Prime Minister went on to pledge extra military assistance to the besieged country.
> 
> Ukraine is not alone. Russia’s brutal attack has demonstrated the worst and best of humanity. Most importantly, it has emphasised our solidarity with innocent people in times of suffering. For Poland and Britain, this solidarity means closer ties than ever. For Europe and Nato, it means unity. For Ukraine, it means hope amid an unimaginable tragedy. We will not cease until Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are restored. Slava Ukraini!
> _Piotr Wilczek is the Polish Ambassador to the UK_


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514377376242749446


----------



## Jarnhamar

Lumber said:


> I'm hopeful, but given how old the Slava's are, I wouldn't be surprised if this was an internal fire cause by a non-combat related incident/mechanical fault.


 A little smoking in the ward room perhaps.


----------



## suffolkowner

effectively it doesn't matter why the ship is out of action all that matters is that it is a piece off the board


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Kirkhill said:


> View attachment 70061
> 
> I've always been impressed by those 8 very large targets lining each of the port and starboard gunwales.  They qualify as ammunition don't they?


I did a deeper dive in to where exactly the Moskva has been operating in relation to land.  

It's come no closer than 40nm to shore.  And has generally remained around 60nm to 80nm away from shore.  

I would assess at that range, the probability of a successful hit of a single ASM fired at a Ship like the Moskva, operating in a TG, to be incredibly low.

@Lumber would be a good one to confirm my hypothesis.  

Remember:  Maximum Range =/= Effective Range in Missile Warfare 😉


----------



## suffolkowner

Німецький Leopard 1A5 для ЗСУ: мотлох чи дійсно потрібний нині танк - детальний огляд | Defense Express
					

Передмова: радість автора матеріалу була незрівнянно більшою, якщо публікація стосувалась 50 одиниць Leopard 2A5 або взагалі A7, ніж Leopard 1A5, але реальність така, як є




					defence-ua.com
				




a Ukrainian perspective on the possible Leo1 transfer


----------



## suffolkowner

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I did a deeper dive in to where exactly the Moskva has been operating in relation to land.
> 
> It's come no closer than 40nm to shore.  And has generally remained around 60nm to 80nm away from shore.
> 
> I would assess at that range, the probability of a successful hit of a single ASM fired at a Ship like the Moskva, operating in a TG, to be incredibly low.
> 
> @Lumber would be a good one to confirm my hypothesis.
> 
> Remember:  Maximum Range =/= Effective Range in Missile Warfare 😉


would this be on a functional maintained ship or just your typical Russian one? If a Russian ship can blow itself up, I'm sure it can go  up with a little help


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I did a deeper dive in to where exactly the Moskva has been operating in relation to land.
> 
> It's come no closer than 40nm to shore.  And has generally remained around 60nm to 80nm away from shore.
> 
> I would assess at that range, the probability of a successful hit of a single ASM fired at a Ship like the Moskva, operating in a TG, to be incredibly low.
> 
> @Lumber would be a good one to confirm my hypothesis.
> 
> Remember:  Maximum Range =/= Effective Range in Missile Warfare 😉




On the other hand - given the number of countries offering assistance - the options include

Ukrainian Neptune - 300 km (~160nm)
British Harpoon - >125 km (>70nm)
Norwegian NSM - >185 km (>100nm)
Swedish RBS-15 Mk IV - >300 km (>160nm)


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

suffolkowner said:


> would this be on a functional maintained ship or just your typical Russian one? If a Russian ship can blow itself up, I'm sure it can go  up with a little help


I'm talking about the actual range you would want to conduct the missile engagement itself, based on a variety of factors.  



Kirkhill said:


> On the other hand - given the number of countries offering assistance - the options include
> 
> Ukrainian Neptune - 300 km (~160nm)
> British Harpoon - >125 km (>70nm)
> Norwegian NSM - >185 km (>100nm)
> Swedish RBS-15 Mk IV - >300 km (>160nm)



That's maximum range.  Maximum range has nothing to do with effective range.


----------



## NavyShooter

suffolkowner said:


> effectively it doesn't matter why the ship is out of action all that matters is that it is a piece off the board


Actually, I think it does.  

Militarily, yes, it's a chess piece off the board...however, that chess piece has likely been almost silent for the past few weeks - yes, the whole snake island thing at the start...and there was a NGFS event as well I think...but it's been a 'fleet in being' off the coast, rather than an integral part of ongoing operations.

However.

Morale - there's a big boost to morale based on this being the flagship...and named MOSCOW....that's a big FU to big bad Vlad.

That's worth a lot in the case of folks who are about to face down a new/rejuvenated offensive from the east. 

NS


----------



## brihard

Lots of OSINT in the past few hours firming this up, including recordings of openly transmitted Morse broadcasts, AIS tracking of tugs moving to the area, and of course Russia itself has admitted ammunition exploding, fire, and evac. Ukraine claimed missile hits prior to most of that coming out. I’ve seen other info that Ukraine claims to have distracted it with a Bayraktar, allowing for an easier missile hit. I also read an interesting thread earlier about a Russian criminal corruption investigating implicating massive theft out of funds intended for Black Sea fleet air defences.

One hell of a hit if in fact that’s how it went down. They may have been able to rush Neptune into service. A Ukrainian hard kill of a Russian flagship named for Moscow with a domestically produced missile is a hell of a coup.


----------



## suffolkowner

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I'm talking about the actual range you would want to conduct the missile engagement itself, based on a variety of factors.
> 
> 
> 
> That's maximum range.  Maximum range has nothing to do with effective range.


what was the approximate distance at sinking? What kind of assumptions are we making about the effectiveness of Russian missile defence?


NavyShooter said:


> Actually, I think it does.
> 
> Militarily, yes, it's a chess piece off the board...however, that chess piece has likely been almost silent for the past few weeks - yes, the whole snake island thing at the start...and there was a NGFS event as well I think...but it's been a 'fleet in being' off the coast, rather than an integral part of ongoing operations.
> 
> However.
> 
> Morale - there's a big boost to morale based on this being the flagship...and named MOSCOW....that's a big FU to big bad Vlad.
> 
> That's worth a lot in the case of folks who are about to face down a new/rejuvenated offensive from the east.
> 
> NS


Your right morale boost for Ukraine and the opposite for Russia

I'll be curious to see if the rest of the Russian fleet makes any adjustments. If they move further offshore I think that would be indicative


----------



## The Bread Guy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> It's also possible Moskva had a fire and a or ammunition magazine exploded.  Which is what the Russians version of events is ...


Yup ....


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

suffolkowner said:


> what was the approximate distance at sinking? What kind of assumptions are we making about the effectiveness of Russian missile defence?
> 
> Your right morale boost for Ukraine and the opposite for Russia
> 
> I'll be curious to see if the rest of the Russian fleet makes any adjustments. If they move further offshore I think that would be indicative


By looks of it, approx 50-60nm from shore.  

It would be possible to maybe hit it with 3rd Party Targeting at that range but given Ukraine's capabilities, highly unlikely.

Very few Militaries outside a select few can even do that.  

Again, not saying it's impossible, I'm saying it's unlikely.  But then, why did it only happen 49 days in to the conflict as well?


----------



## Haggis

brihard said:


> One hell of a hit if in fact that’s how it went down. They may have been able to rush Neptune into service. A Ukrainian hard kill of a Russian flagship named for Moscow with a domestically produced missile is a hell of a coup.


I wonder if Soldier35 has a Naval counterpart to tell us what really went down here.


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Haggis said:


> I wonder if Soldier35 has a Naval counterpart to tell us what really went down here.


Looking forward to that.....


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> By looks of it, approx 50-60nm from shore.
> 
> It would be possible to maybe hit it with 3rd Party Targeting at that range but given Ukraine's capabilities, highly unlikely.
> 
> Very few Militaries outside a select few can even do that.


Maybe have had some other 3rd party help...



Humphrey Bogart said:


> Again, not saying it's impossible, I'm saying it's unlikely.  But then, why did it only happen 49 days in to the conflict as well?


More and more systems moved into theatre after MTT's work with the intended user groups.


----------



## suffolkowner

Humphrey Bogart said:


> By looks of it, approx 50-60nm from shore.
> 
> It would be possible to maybe hit it with 3rd Party Targeting at that range but given Ukraine's capabilities, highly unlikely.
> 
> Very few Militaries outside a select few can even do that.
> 
> Again, not saying it's impossible, I'm saying it's unlikely.  *But then, why did it only happen 49 days in to the conflict as well?*


this is a good question. like I said it will be interesting to see if the Russian fleet makes any changes in their operations. It would be nice to get a missile attack on some Russian ships to see how they respond for sure


----------



## brihard

Whatever it was that apparently took it out, this is significant. _Moskva_ is, among other things, a floating S-300 battery with 64 missiles. This has major significance for Kherson and potentially Crimea. I don't know if Russia has any other similarly large ships in the Black Sea; it may be that this vessel also has/had Russia's best sensors afloat in the theatre of operations.


----------



## McG

There is a second cruiser of the same class in the Black Sea or Azov.


----------



## NavyShooter




----------



## brihard

McG said:


> There is a second cruiser of the same class in the Black Sea or Azov.


Well, I guess now they can get 2 cruisers' worth of clean underwear resupply. They may need it.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

One of these, the Varyag came to Vancouver in 2011, very impressive looking ships


----------



## Spencer100

Humphrey Bogart said:


> By looks of it, approx 50-60nm from shore.
> 
> It would be possible to maybe hit it with 3rd Party Targeting at that range but given Ukraine's capabilities, highly unlikely.
> 
> Very few Militaries outside a select few can even do that.
> 
> Again, not saying it's impossible, I'm saying it's unlikely.  But then, why did it only happen 49 days in to the conflict as well?


Don't look at that P-8 above the Black Sea at the same time.  Nope no data transmitted.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Spencer100 said:


> Don't look at that P-8 above the Black Sea at the same time.  Nope no data transmitted.


I'm sure we would give Link 16 to a Non-NATO Country with a history of corruption.  Please live in the real World.

I am actually trying to find some open source information to explain how this stuff actually works to the non-Navy/Air types without an Ops background but it's insanely hard to find anything UNCLAS.  

Great example:



			https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/why-russias-navy-ukraine-war-doomed-or-irrelevant
		


Can tell this was written by an Army guy with no concept of how ASMs actually work or how Navies fight.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Haggis said:


> I wonder if Soldier35 has a Naval counterpart to tell us what really went down here.


I may be aging myself -- #RussianPaulHarveyTheRESTOfTheStory?


----------



## Spencer100

Opps it maybe a E-3 sentry they think over at UNSI.org. doesn't really make a difference.  

But the time it took was most likely the time need to get the missiles up and running, the data connections and then authorized by the US to pull the trigger on the plan.  By the sounds of it the operation was a lot of moving parts.


----------



## AlexanderM

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514396291924729859


----------



## Prairie canuck

AlexanderM said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514396291924729859


Not sure who took the photo but they, or it, weren't very far away.


----------



## NavyShooter

An interesting article:





__





						An Anti-Access Denial Strategy For Ukraine | Center for International Maritime Security
					






					cimsec.org


----------



## Good2Golf

Spencer100 said:


> Opps it maybe a E-3 sentry they think over at UNSI.org. doesn't really make a difference.
> 
> But the time it took was most likely the time need to get the missiles up and running, the data connections and then authorized by the US to pull the trigger on the plan.  By the sounds of it the operation was a lot of moving parts.


…or FORTE10/11 was doing rounds in the area… 🤔


----------



## NavyShooter

The picture above might not be real...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514408038819631114


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I'm sure we would give Link 16 to a Non-NATO Country with a history of corruption.  Please live in the real World.
> 
> I am actually trying to find some open source information to explain how this stuff actually works to the non-Navy/Air types without an Ops background but it's insanely hard to find anything UNCLAS.
> 
> Great example:
> 
> 
> 
> https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/why-russias-navy-ukraine-war-doomed-or-irrelevant
> 
> 
> 
> Can tell this was written by an Army guy with no concept of how ASMs actually work or how Navies fight.



But…there is one very accurate piece of data in that article;  “I am not an expert in these missiles”.

👊🏻 Dude nailed it.


----------



## armrdsoul77




----------



## Lumber

Humphrey Bogart said:


> @Lumber would be a good one to confirm my hypothesis.
> 
> Remember:  Maximum Range =/= Effective Range in Missile Warfare 😉


So, first you have to understand how Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles (ASCMs) work. They are fire and forget weapons. All you need to do is tell them where the target is, and they will fly out and find it on there own. You can provide the missile with that targeting info by literally _any means_. You could have the ASCM system connected to a advanced combat management system linked to radars and satellites, or you could literally just have someone call you on the radio and say "there's a ship at Lat/Long going north east at around 15 knots", then program that position/course/speed manually into the system, and fire away. Obviously the "older" the info you enter into the system, the less accurate the shot will be.

So, here's how I figured it went down.

At the range we're talking about (50-60nm, but really anything over 25 ish nautical miles), you'd need _third party _targeting. I don't think Ukraine has the capability to maintain constant surveillance of the Black Sea with up to date (i.e. by the second) and accurate (positon, course, and speed) over-the-horizon information. But! If they new where to look, they could send a dedicated platform (helo, small boat, drone) over the horizon to confirm the contact and radio back to base it's position/course/speed.

Just a guess here, but I bet Moskva is likely under constant surveillance by NATO ISR air craft and other means. Humphrey Bogart is right in that there is no way we would allow Ukraine into our Link network (even if we wanted to, they don't even have compatible equipment). However, perhaps Ukraine is being fed intel from NATO, as in "Hey Uks, Mosvka is currently inside 60nm from Odessa. Just saying, guys".

So, Ukraine preps their battery, launches a Bayraktar to confirm. The drone gets eyes on the target, which provides the Neptune system with an up-to-date postion/course/speed on the Moskva, and _woooooooosh_ Bulldogs away.

Now, how did two Ukrainian Neptune ASCMs get through a Cruiser's air defence?

It's easy:
1. Old ass ship;
2. Complacent crew augmented by conscripts with poor training;
3. Corruption leading to lack of functioning equipment and ammo that actually works;
4. Crew has their guard down; and
5. Just before the missiles come over the radar horizon, you have that same Bayraktar fire a few laser guided bombs at it, or have the drone itself charge the warship. The Moskva would have been so distracted by the drone they probably wouldn't even have noticed the Neptunes popping up over the horizon.

My 2c.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Spencer100 said:


> Opps it maybe a E-3 sentry they think over at UNSI.org. doesn't really make a difference.
> 
> But the time it took was most likely the time need to get the missiles up and running, the data connections and then authorized by the US to pull the trigger on the plan.  By the sounds of it the operation was a lot of moving parts.



It’s late and all that but, that sure sounds like a Hostile Act to me by NATO/a NATO country against forces of another country?


----------



## brihard

Lumber said:


> It's easy:
> 1. Old ass ship;
> 2. Complacent crew augmented by conscripts with poor training;
> 3. Corruption leading to lack of functioning equipment and ammo that actually works;
> 4. Crew has their guard down; and
> 5. Just before the missiles come over the radar horizon, you have that same Bayraktar fire a few laser guided bombs at it, or have the drone itself charge the warship. The Moskva would have been so distracted by the drone they probably won't even have noticed the Neptunes popping up over the horizon.
> 
> My 2c.


6. Yell “Surprise!”


----------



## Good2Golf

Eye In The Sky said:


> It’s late and all that but, that sure sounds like a Hostile Act to me by NATO/a NATO country against forces of another country?


Ukraine hasn’t joined NATO…yet…if at all.


----------



## brihard

Eye In The Sky said:


> It’s late and all that but, that sure sounds like a Hostile Act to me by NATO/a NATO country against forces of another country?


Every weapon we’ve sent or bit of intelligence we’ve shared is a ‘hostile act’ to some lesser or greater extent. I’m sure there has been intelligence provided directly already that has led to Russian deaths and loss of equipment. This one is just a particularly noteworthy hit.

If, hypothetically, NATO did facilitate a kill on this, good. This is a very reasonable, proportionate, and discriminate hit. It’s both a symbolic blow and a real, tangible, military one. Keep knocking down major combat capabilities. If Russia doesn’t like it, too fucking bad. They launched this war of aggression; they chose to enter and choose every hour to remain in the war they’re losing. They can choose at any point to withdraw from Ukraine. They will probably find a strong correlation between no longer invading a sovereign nation and ally of the West, and no longer having their military curb stomped.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Good2Golf said:


> Ukraine hasn’t joined NATO…yet…if at all.



I was referring to the suggestion a P-8 or AWACS was doing the direct OTHT piece;  Lumber covered a plausible scenario that covers that.  🙂


----------



## Good2Golf

Eye In The Sky said:


> I was referring to the suggestion a P-8 or AWACS was doing the direct OTHT piece;  Lumber covered a plausible scenario that covers that.  🙂


I know. I was perhaps too discretely making a note between committing an overt act, and supporting others through 3rd party information passage.

A P-8 or AWACS would be no different than precisely what FORTE10 & 11 feeding OTH RMP filtered/declassified to UAF have been doing for the last few weeks…or even MAXAR to be honest…or who knows, MDA and RADARSAT2 ISAR data…


----------



## Spencer100

Eye In The Sky said:


> It’s late and all that but, that sure sounds like a Hostile Act to me by NATO/a NATO country against forces of another country?


NATO has been feeding data to Ukrainians from the start.  GB and GB of targeting data has been sent.  Even Canada is supplying radar sat data, it was reported as part of the package we sent.  

I would eat my shoe if there were not NATO people on the ground in Ukraine.  Some just newly "retired" some just there.  It also has been reported Academy (old Blackwater) is there. Etc.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

brihard said:


> Every weapon we’ve sent or bit of intelligence we’ve shared is a ‘hostile act’ to some lesser or greater extent. I’m sure there has been intelligence provided directly already that has led to Russian deaths and loss of equipment. This one is just a particularly noteworthy hit.
> 
> If, hypothetically, NATO did facilitate a kill on this, good. This is a very reasonable, proportionate, and discriminate hit. It’s both a symbolic blow and a real, tangible, military one. Keep knocking down major combat capabilities. If Russia doesn’t like it, too fucking bad. They launched this war of aggression; they chose to enter and choose every hour to remain in the war they’re losing. They can choose at any point to withdraw from Ukraine. They will probably find a strong correlation between no longer invading a sovereign nation and ally of the West, and no longer having their military curb stomped.



I’m going to have to disagree;  I am thinking of the shooter/spotter perspective of having trained to a certain extent as the spotter in a situation like this.  OTHT is active,with intent and…at risk of crossing lines late at night I’ll leave my comments there.   

Lumber proceed a very likely scenario where the active Spotter was Ukrainian.


----------



## Jarnhamar

brihard said:


> 6. Yell “Surprise!”



I know the rest of what you wanted to say


----------



## AlexanderM

This is pretty wild, I thought hey Lumber!


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514398732611211271


----------



## Prairie canuck

NavyShooter said:


> The picture above might not be real...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514408038819631114


Well that's disappointing. Nice job sleuthing that out.


----------



## Skysix

Prairie canuck said:


> Well that's disappointing. Nice job sleuthing that out.


Maybe, maybe not. A lot depends on where the pic was taken from, wind direction, time of day etc. Not as simple as a similar looking cloud or distant horizon.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

If this is exactly how this played out, I am going to seriously be like this for a day or two:







In my world, we call these things “big shooters”.  If this went down with a single or even 2 ASMs…nice.


----------



## Brad Sallows

Sunk?

No Lloyd's Open Form opportunity, then.


----------



## MilEME09

Brad Sallows said:


> Sunk?
> 
> No Lloyd's Open Form opportunity, then.


Last OSINT update I heard about 6pm MST, she had  capsized and was going down. Neptune's are apparently sea skimming missiles and avoided the ships air defense. Thing to remember, this ship was built in Ukraine, a 4th ship of the class is rotting in Mikolaiv. They knew exactly where to hit to damage the magazine of the ship. I'd call it a successful combat debut for the Neptune.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Guys, guys, guys - @Soldier35 may have something more recent, but RUS state media says the good news is the ammo booms have stopped ....


----------



## Haggis

The Bread Guy said:


> Guys, guys, guys - @Soldier35 may have something more recent, but RUS state media says the good news is the ammo booms have stopped ....
> View attachment 70072
> View attachment 70073


Muffled by being submerged, maybe?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, "human trafficking" can be such a harsh term ...




__





						ShieldSquare Captcha
					






					www.kmu.gov.ua
				



This from the Kremlin info-machine last week (archived link) ....


> On April 6–7, Presidential Commissioner for Children's Rights Maria Lvova-Belova visited the Donetsk (DPR) and Lugansk (LPR) people’s republics. She discussed issues pertaining to children’s aid with the republics’ heads ... The purpose of Maria Lvova-Belova’s two-day working visit was to organise targeted humanitarian aid for families with children in the DPR and the LPR, treatment for those wounded in the conflict zone, and rehabilitation for orphans. She discussed placing orphans and children without parental care, evacuated to the territory of the Russian Federation, in Russian families. Work is underway to implement earlier instructions issued by the President to simplify the existing legal mechanisms ...


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

"Because of the gallant service holding back the marauders on Snake Island the Cruiser Moskva has been promoted to Submarine First Class"


Just thought I'd write the headline for Soldier 35's next video. ..


----------



## suffolkowner

So honestly the whole thing sounds pretty simple from Lumbers explanation. Were pretty confident that Ukraine has been getting help from the Uk and US in particular on land so why not on the sea or as stated via TB2.  Realistically the Russian Navy is nowhere in as good a shape as the Russian Army and we have seen our own NATO navies do things like hit civilian freighters and worse in non combat scenarios. I think it is wrong to expect better performance from the Russians. Likely that much work has been put into finishing the Neptune and equally likely that while this might have been the first success it doesnt necessarily follow that it was the first attempt

What defences would the ship have had against sea skimming missiles?


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Soldier35 said:


> . The missile cruiser "Moscow" is planned to be towed to the port


Ukraine has deep-sea tractors also???


----------



## The Bread Guy

The Bread Guy said:


> Guys, guys, guys - @Soldier35 may have something more recent ...


18 minutes later ....


Soldier35 said:


> Ammunition exploded on the missile cruiser "Moscow". According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, due to a fire on the missile cruiser "Moscow", a detonation of ammunition occurred, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet was seriously damaged. Now the ship is afloat, the fire has been extinguished, the explosions of ammunition have stopped. The missile cruiser "Moscow" is planned to be towed to the port ...


Funny, that ....


----------



## calculus

More on the Moskva sinking, with additional details, from another reputable source (Naval News): 









						Loss of Russian Cruiser Moskva: What we know so far - Naval News
					

Ukrainian forces attacked the flagship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, the Moskva, causing significant damage aboard the vessel.




					www.navalnews.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

"Be our guest! Be our guest!  
Put our service to the test
Tie your napkin 'round your neck, cherie
And we'll provide the rest ..."








						Why is a Russian Intelligence General in Moscow Lefortovo Prison? - The Moscow Times
					

Opinion | Colonel General Sergei Beseda, head of the Fifth Service of the FSB, is being held in Lefortovo prison.




					www.themoscowtimes.com


----------



## dapaterson

Note: this may be UKR propaganda.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514382681219518464


----------



## Haggis

Soldier35 said:


> Ammunition exploded on the missile cruiser "Moscow". According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, due to a fire on the missile cruiser "Moscow", a detonation of ammunition occurred, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet was seriously damaged. Now the ship is afloat, the fire has been extinguished, the explosions of ammunition have stopped. The missile cruiser "Moscow" is planned to be towed to the port


Any hints as to the cause of the explosion?  Smoking in a no-smoking area?  Rapid entry of seawater and flaming debris into the ammunition spaces?


Soldier35 said:


> The Mi-24 dodged the missiles and went to the side, the return fire of the Mi-28N and Ka-52 helicopters, the Ukrainian Buk air defense system was destroyed.


How many missiles has the RFA successfully intercepted with their aircraft?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Haggis said:


> How many missiles has the RFA successfully intercepted with their aircraft?


#RussianOlympicJavelinCatchingTeam (or, more literally, their army?)


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> "Be our guest! Be our guest!
> Put our service to the test
> Tie your napkin 'round your neck, cherie
> And we'll provide the rest ..."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Why is a Russian Intelligence General in Moscow Lefortovo Prison? - The Moscow Times
> 
> 
> Opinion | Colonel General Sergei Beseda, head of the Fifth Service of the FSB, is being held in Lefortovo prison.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.themoscowtimes.com


I wonder if they hand out copies of Solzhenitsyn's 'Gulag Archipelago' when you enter Lefortovo as required reading?


----------



## calculus

A coincidental article, that suggests what just happened to Moskva is only the beginning:



			https://smallwarsjournal.com/index.php/jrnl/art/why-russias-navy-ukraine-war-doomed-or-irrelevant


----------



## Czech_pivo

calculus said:


> A coincidental article, that suggests what just happened to Moskva is only the beginning:
> 
> 
> 
> https://smallwarsjournal.com/index.php/jrnl/art/why-russias-navy-ukraine-war-doomed-or-irrelevant


Thanks for posting that, a very good read.


----------



## MilEME09

Well Russia gets to claim one trophy from this war, being the first navy to loose a flag ship ti a nation without an active navy


----------



## Portnord

calculus said:


> A coincidental article, that suggests what just happened to Moskva is only the beginning:
> 
> 
> 
> https://smallwarsjournal.com/index.php/jrnl/art/why-russias-navy-ukraine-war-doomed-or-irrelevant


"...the Neptune rollout, training, and deployment finishes, possibly in just a few weeks if the invasion has not derailed Ukraine’s timetable."

This was an odd statement. My limited second hand experience of military organisations suggests their IQ spikes about a hundred points in a crisis, and the timetable likely got sped up. As in "Welcome all, I know some of you thought you would be learning the boatswain trade, some of you thought you would be stevedores. Today however we'll be studying coastal defense, with a focus on our new friend Neptune. If you're in a technical trade you're in the wrong room. Go to subbasement 2 and they will direct you to the missile assembly workshops."


----------



## MilEME09

Portnord said:


> "...the Neptune rollout, training, and deployment finishes, possibly in just a few weeks if the invasion has not derailed Ukraine’s timetable."
> 
> This was an odd statement. My limited second hand experience of military organisations suggests their IQ spikes about a hundred points in a crisis, and the timetable likely got sped up. As in "Welcome all, I know some of you thought you would be learning the boatswain trade, some of you thought you would be stevedores. Today however we'll be studying coastal defense, with a focus on our new friend Neptune. If you're in a technical trade you're in the wrong room. Go to subbasement 2 and they will direct you to the missile assembly workshops."


Likely not rushed by much, missile was originally tested last spring, first unit was equipped a few weeks ago and operational.


----------



## Haggis

MilEME09 said:


> Likely not rushed by much, *missile was originally tested last spring*, first unit was equipped a few weeks ago and operational.


I think it passed.  @Soldier35 any comments?


----------



## Spencer100

Czech_pivo said:


> I wonder if they hand out copies of Solzhenitsyn's 'Gulag Archipelago' when you enter Lefortovo as required reading?


Why give spoilers?!  


PS they need to have today's HS kids reading it now.  I know had too.  It had a profound impact on me


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514476344498962434


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514506925945331713


----------



## Czech_pivo

Spencer100 said:


> Why give spoilers?!
> 
> 
> PS they need to have today's HS kids reading it now.  I know had too.  It had a profound impact on me


Either that book or 'One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich'


----------



## Portnord

MilEME09 said:


> Likely not rushed by much, missile was originally tested last spring, first unit was equipped a few weeks ago and operational.


Yeah, but the article is from only two days ago. Surely the invasion made producing these and rolling them out move up a much shorter priority list.

Edit: 4 days ago, my bad, it's a reprint. Hopefully not a reprint of a reprint...


----------



## Spencer100

Portnord said:


> Yeah, but the article is from only two days ago. Surely the invasion made producing these and rolling them out move up a much shorter priority list.


IOC timelines are a little faster when your home is being bombed.

Re: another thread on here was talking about that. The question was how long does it take?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, some CAF help on it's way to Poland ...








						Canadian troops heading to Poland to help Ukrainian refugees
					

Members of the Canadian Armed Forces are set to depart from an Ontario military base today to help with the care, co-ordination and resettlement of Ukrainian refugees in Poland.




					www.cp24.com
				



... and in a related development (via CAN immigration info-machine)


> ... In addition to our pre-existing (Visa App'n Centre) network, we have been working to set up additional biometrics collection locations and increased capacity at existing ones as demand requires such as in Chisinau. For example, additional biometric capacity has been added to the Visa Application network and missions in Warsaw, as well as to Vienna and Bucharest. Clients should visit the VAC website to find the closest service point ...


----------



## KevinB

Spencer100 said:


> IOC timelines are a little faster when your home is being bombed.
> 
> Re: another thread on here was talking about that. The question was how long does it take?


Depending on definition not long at all.   To me IOC means as soon as the troops have it, and can employ it effectively.
   Some will want to add all sort of caveats to support it during it's lifecycle - which makes sense in peacetime - as you don't want to prematurely deploy something and negatively impact it's lifespan -- but when looking at wartime, the quicker you can get it degrading enemy capabilities the better.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> Either that book or 'One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich'


Although a shorter read than "Gulag Archipeligo," I think anyone being guested at Lefortovo would have the time to take in the longer volume.  Energy and unbroken fingers?  Don't know.  Time?  Yup.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514320951558737923


----------



## KevinB

Deleted Tweet


----------



## dapaterson

dapaterson said:


> Note: this may be UKR propaganda.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514382681219518464


Nice touch: use of a VDV uniform.


----------



## Kirkhill

From April 12



Kirkhill said:


> In east, south of Ukraine, Russians ready for offensive action - General Staff
> 
> 
> Russian invaders are systemically hitting Ukrainian infrastructure in Kharkiv and Zaporizhia regions with missiles and bombs. In Donetsk and Tavria directions, the enemy is ready to go on an offensive. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net



More on operations in the Kherson Oblast region

From April 14









						Lviv paratroopers liberate several localities in southern Ukraine
					

The service members of the air assault units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated several populated localities in southern Ukraine from Russian troops. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				






> The service members of the air assault units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated several populated localities in southern Ukraine from Russian troops.
> 
> "The units of the 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have recently conducted a brilliant operation to eliminate the units of the armed forces of the Russian Federation. Due to certain circumstances, we cannot disclose in detail the progress of this operation. However, it should be noted that the Lviv paratroopers were very successful," the 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine posted on Facebook.
> 
> Necessary measures were taken in advance to detect and suppress fire control points, firepower, and other important enemy targets. After that, the air assault units carried out offensive operations.
> 
> "Having suffered significant losses, the Russian occupiers were demoralized and began to retreat, leaving their positions. As a result, Lviv paratroopers liberated several Ukrainian populated localities from occupation," the report reads.


----------



## dangerboy

Much like people suspected would happen, we are sending troops to Poland to assist with the refugees. 


> Up to 150 Canadian Armed Forces members will soon be deploying to help manage the Ukrainian refugee resettlement efforts in Poland.
> 
> Defence Minister Anita Anand made the announcement on Thursday at the Canadian Forces’ military base in Trenton, Ont.


Canadian military deploying to Poland to assist Ukrainian refugees


----------



## AlexanderM

Ok, so it's sunk, it's not sunk, not sure now??









						UPDATED: Russia Says Damaged Cruiser Moskva Sank Under Tow Headed to Black Sea Homeport - USNI News
					

This story has been updated to include a report from Russian state media Moskva has sunk. Russian Navy’s Black Sea flagship RTS Moskva (121) has sunk while being towed toward Sevastopol, Crimea, after sustaining major damage in a fire Wednesday, Russian state media said on Thursday. “During the...




					news.usni.org


----------



## Eye In The Sky

suffolkowner said:


> What defences would the ship have had against sea skimming missiles?



SAMs and their (kind of) version of CWIS.   Look at sensors and armament.  









						Slava-class cruiser - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org
				




I don’t know much about Neptune, but just as a general statement, sea skimmers don’t necessarily stay right off the surface for the entire engagement.


----------



## Kirkhill

Lumber said:


> Just a guess here, but I bet Moskva is likely under constant surveillance by NATO ISR air craft and other means. Humphrey Bogart is right in that there is no way we would allow Ukraine into our Link network (even if we wanted to, they don't even have compatible equipment). However, perhaps Ukraine is being fed intel from NATO, as in "Hey Uks, Mosvka is currently inside 60nm from Odessa. Just saying, guys".
> 
> So, Ukraine preps their battery, launches a Bayraktar to confirm. The drone gets eyes on the target, which provides the Neptune system with an up-to-date postion/course/speed on the Moskva, and _woooooooosh_ Bulldogs away.



From a comment on the USNI link previously posted by someone else who I can't locate just now.









						UPDATED: Russia Says Damaged Cruiser Moskva Sank Under Tow Headed to Black Sea Homeport - USNI News
					

This story has been updated to include a report from Russian state media Moskva has sunk. Russian Navy’s Black Sea flagship RTS Moskva (121) has sunk while being towed toward Sevastopol, Crimea, after sustaining major damage in a fire Wednesday, Russian state media said on Thursday. “During the...




					news.usni.org
				






> The Moskva has been confirmed to be badly damaged by Russian news, who claimed it was due to a fire on board. Investigations are continuing to find the source of the fire. Not far away, at the time the ship sank, an E3 Sentry was flying circles on the border of the Black Sea. Some Ukraine sources claim the Russian cruiser was struck by two Neptun missiles--which are domestically produced. Intercepted Russian communications said that the Ukrainians had distracted the air defense systems by flying a probing aircraft in the area, while the missiles slipped through the AD net at sea skimming altitudes.



Possibilities


----------



## Maxman1

AlexanderM said:


> Ok, so it's sunk, it's not sunk, not sure now??
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> UPDATED: Russia Says Damaged Cruiser Moskva Sank Under Tow Headed to Black Sea Homeport - USNI News
> 
> 
> This story has been updated to include a report from Russian state media Moskva has sunk. Russian Navy’s Black Sea flagship RTS Moskva (121) has sunk while being towed toward Sevastopol, Crimea, after sustaining major damage in a fire Wednesday, Russian state media said on Thursday. “During the...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.usni.org



It's in port now, here's a photo to prove it:


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Maxman1 said:


> It's in port now, here's a photo to prove it:


Looks like it would've been better off scuttled. She's looking rough....

Edit: Still looks like it should be scuttled. POS


----------



## TheHead

That picture is from 2013.  Updated with the proper year.

TinEye Reverse Image Search


----------



## Furniture

Maxman1 said:


> It's in port now, here's a photo to prove it:


I'm pretty sure that's the unfinished one, not the one damaged recently.


----------



## GR66

Furniture said:


> I'm pretty sure that's the unfinished one, not the one damaged recently.


It is.  It's the exact same picture as shown of the unfinished Ukraina moored at the Mykolayiv Shipyard the Wikipedia article on the ship:


----------



## Maxman1

TheHead said:


> That picture is from 2018.
> 
> TinEye Reverse Image Search





Furniture said:


> I'm pretty sure that's the unfinished one, not the one damaged recently.


----------



## TheHead

Woooosh......  right over my the head.


----------



## Kirkhill

Appears to be the unfinished Ukrayina docked at Mykolaiv.  Bottom of the chart.




armrdsoul77 said:


> View attachment 70066


----------



## Maxman1

GR66 said:


> It is.  It's the exact same picture as shown of the unfinished Ukraina moored at the Mykolayiv Shipyard the Wikipedia article on the ship:



The image URL also gives it away, the joke being that Russian propaganda would claim it was the _Moskva._


----------



## Quirky

TheHead said:


> That picture is from 2013.  Updated with the proper year.
> 
> TinEye Reverse Image Search



I was gonna say, did they pull it from the bottom of the Black Sea?


----------



## Brad Sallows

So..now it's Schrodinger's cruiser...


----------



## TheHead

Maxman1 said:


> The image URL also gives it away, the joke being that Russian propaganda would claim it was the _Moskva._



I must have mistook your username for Soldier35....


----------



## RangerRay

Edited - irrelevant now.


----------



## Maxman1

TheHead said:


> I must have mistook your username for Soldier35....



I probably should have added an /s or a smiley.


----------



## Maxman1

rmc_wannabe said:


> Looks like it would've been better off scuttled. She's looking rough....
> 
> Edit: Still looks like it should be scuttled. POS



They've been trying to sell or scrap it for the past twenty years, but supposedly it needs $30 million to finish (doubtful, since the engines are almost certainly junk and the propeller shafts likely bowed from lack of use). Russia wanted to buy it in 2010, but backed out when they realized they would have to pay for it.


----------



## Czech_pivo

dangerboy said:


> Much like people suspected would happen, we are sending troops to Poland to assist with the refugees.
> 
> Canadian military deploying to Poland to assist Ukrainian refugees


Why would Poland even agree to this?


----------



## Furniture

The Line nails it perfectly once again.

Andrew Potter: The last honourable man


----------



## Weinie

Czech_pivo said:


> Why would Poland even agree to this?


Because they see that Canada will likely admit many of these refugees to here.


----------



## KevinB

Furniture said:


> The Line nails it perfectly once again.
> 
> Andrew Potter: The last honourable man


Fantastic article.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Why would Poland even agree to this?





Weinie said:


> Because they see that Canada will likely admit many of these refugees to here.


Also because Poland is a likely target of Russian angst with NATO supplying equipment and intelligence to Ukraine.   
  Canadian Soldiers in Poland even if very small are another Red Shirt detachment tripwire.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Weinie said:


> Because they see that Canada will likely admit many of these refugees to here.


But as others have pointed out, all men between 18-60 couldn't leave Ukraine, so there are very few complete family units in Poland.  Most of them won't leave the area in case they need to slip back over the border to deal with other family issues.


----------



## Furniture

Czech_pivo said:


> Why would Poland even agree to this?


Why not? There is no downside for Poland, if Canada sends troops over to move boxes of stuff and pose for pictures.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Also because Poland is a likely target of Russian angst with NATO supplying equipment and intelligence to Ukraine.
> Canadian Soldiers in Poland even if very small are another Red Shirt detachment tripwire.


I think they'd be of more use in Romania or Moldova, two countries substantially less able to deal with the large number of refugees in their countries.


----------



## Weinie

Czech_pivo said:


> But as others have pointed out, all men between 18-60 couldn't leave Ukraine, so there are very few complete family units in Poland.  Most of them won't leave the area in case they need to slip back over the border to deal with other family issues.


Would not be the first, second, or thousandth time that an incomplete family unit has claimed refugee status.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Furniture said:


> Why not? There is no downside for Poland, if Canada sends troops over to move boxes of stuff and pose for pictures.


Send over 150 CDN Red Cross volunteers - both are just as capable to move boxes and pose for pictures. Our soldiers are supposed to be trained for combat, not moving flipping boxes and taking pictures for Instagram or Twitter feeds.


----------



## OceanBonfire

Czech_pivo said:


> Send over 150 CDN Red Cross volunteers - both are just as capable to move boxes and pose for pictures. Our soldiers are supposed to be trained for combat, not moving flipping boxes and taking pictures for Instagram or Twitter feeds.



Tell that to the Log department


----------



## Furniture

Czech_pivo said:


> Send over 150 CDN Red Cross volunteers - both are just as capable to move boxes and pose for pictures. Our soldiers are supposed to be trained for combat, not moving flipping boxes and taking pictures for Instagram or Twitter feeds.


We can't order 150 Red Cross workers to drop everything, and get on a plane next week.

We can do that with our troops, and we only have to pay them an extra $17.30 a day for the work. Good luck getting large numbers of Canadians to go to Poland for weeks on end for that little extra expense.

Edit: Even as part of Reassurance, the cost is lower than sending civilians for a couple of months.


----------



## OldSolduer

Furniture said:


> The Line nails it perfectly once again.
> 
> Andrew Potter: The last honourable man


"But beyond the economic and political price that is being paid to support Ukraine, there is the extraordinary amount of cognitive dissonance Zelensky’s behaviour has generated amongst the leadership of the West. Honour? Duty? Sacrifice? What century does he think he’s living in?"

I love that line. 

HOW EFFING TRUE this is. A lot of virtue signaling but SFA for action. This is what we - the West - have become. A collection of whining entitled spoiled brats.


----------



## daftandbarmy

OldSolduer said:


> "But beyond the economic and political price that is being paid to support Ukraine, there is the extraordinary amount of cognitive dissonance Zelensky’s behaviour has generated amongst the leadership of the West. Honour? Duty? Sacrifice? What century does he think he’s living in?"
> 
> I love that line.
> 
> HOW EFFING TRUE this is. A lot of virtue signaling but SFA for action. This is what we - the West - have become. A collection of whining entitled spoiled brats.



Putin agrees, it seems:


----------



## TheProfessional

armrdsoul77 said:


> View attachment 70066


Savage. Hahaha


OldSolduer said:


> "But beyond the economic and political price that is being paid to support Ukraine, there is the extraordinary amount of cognitive dissonance Zelensky’s behaviour has generated amongst the leadership of the West. Honour? Duty? Sacrifice? What century does he think he’s living in?"
> 
> I love that line.
> 
> HOW EFFING TRUE this is. A lot of virtue signaling but SFA for action. This is what we - the West - have become. A collection of whining entitled spoiled brats.


Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. Weak men create bad times. And so on and so forth.

Guess which part of the cycle western nations are in?


----------



## Lumber

Kirkhill said:


> From a comment on the USNI link previously posted by someone else who I can't locate just now.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> UPDATED: Russia Says Damaged Cruiser Moskva Sank Under Tow Headed to Black Sea Homeport - USNI News
> 
> 
> This story has been updated to include a report from Russian state media Moskva has sunk. Russian Navy’s Black Sea flagship RTS Moskva (121) has sunk while being towed toward Sevastopol, Crimea, after sustaining major damage in a fire Wednesday, Russian state media said on Thursday. “During the...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.usni.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Possibilities


It's almost like I know naval warfare tactics...


----------



## Blackadder1916

Czech_pivo said:


> Send over 150 CDN Red Cross volunteers - both are just as capable to move boxes and pose for pictures. Our soldiers are supposed to be trained for combat, not moving flipping boxes and taking pictures for Instagram or Twitter feeds.



As Furniture already pointed out the Canadian Gov't has no authority over the Canadian Red Cross.  The CRC have already deployed what is probably an appropriate sized response.









						Canadian Red Cross helping people affected by Ukraine conflict - Canadian Red Cross
					

The Canadian Red Cross welcomes the announcement by the Government of Canada for an additional $20 million to match individual donations to the Ukraine...




					www.redcross.ca
				





> Seven Canadian Red Cross humanitarian experts have been mobilized to support the response in the region.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Furniture said:


> We can't order 150 Red Cross workers to drop everything, and get on a plane next week.
> 
> We can do that with our troops, and we only have to pay them an extra $17.30 a day for the work. Good luck getting large numbers of Canadians to go to Poland for weeks on end for that little extra expense.
> 
> Edit: Even as part of Reassurance, the cost is lower than sending civilians for a couple of months.


I used the word *'Volunteer'* - not worker.

I have *little doubt* that we could easily find 150 experienced Red Cross volunteers (all expenses paid of course) to head over to Poland.


----------



## McG

Czech_pivo said:


> Why would Poland even agree to this?


Why do you think Poland did not ask for this?


----------



## Czech_pivo

McG said:


> Why do you think Poland did not ask for this?


Great, the majority of you seem to think its a good use of our limited resources to send over 150 people off to Poland to 'move boxes' and 'have their pictures taken', have at it.  I'm sure we can find a full colonel to head this up, along with her/his appropriate staff assigned to them to maximize efforts.  Add in a few Media Relations personnel and some Community Awareness Officers to round out the numbers and we'll be good to go.


----------



## Furniture

Czech_pivo said:


> I used the word *'Volunteer'* - not worker.
> 
> I have *little doubt* that we could easily find 150 experienced Red Cross volunteers (all expenses paid of course) to head over to Poland.


Can we send volunteers for months on end? Where are these 150 volunteers?


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Great, the majority of you seem to think is a good use of our limited resources to send over 150 people off to Poland to 'move boxes' and 'have their pictures taken', have at it.  I'm sure we can find a full colonel to head this up, along with her/his appropriate staff assigned to them to maximize efforts.  Add in a few Media Relations personnel and some Community Awareness Officers to round out the numbers and we'll be good to go.


It also gets folks to CAF personnel in Poland.


   If more show up later to conduct training etc. it isn’t as big of a jump.

Look at the US deployments, never more than 10k a news segment.


----------



## McG

Czech_pivo said:


> Great, the majority of you seem to think its a good use of ...


I did not indicate my thoughts on the deployment. Only questioned your premise that this was something pushed from Canada and accepted by Poland vice it being the other way around (as is usually the case when we send aid over seas).


----------



## Gunplumber

Furniture said:


> Can we send volunteers for months on end? Where are these 150 volunteers?


Sitting at home getting CERB cheques!


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> It also gets folks to CAF personnel in Poland.
> 
> 
> If more show up later to conduct training etc. it isn’t as big of a jump.
> 
> Look at the US deployments, never more than 10k a news segment.


They had the 260 trainers from the Ukraine already in Poland but they've all been shipped home.


----------



## Maxman1

Furniture said:


> Why not? There is no downside for Poland, if Canada sends troops over to move boxes of stuff and pose for pictures.



So basically OP Laser.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514653388989939713


----------



## Kirkhill

Lumber said:


> It's almost like I know naval warfare tactics...



Interesting that they didn't seem to be able to look high, at the Bayraktar or whatever, and low at the missiles at the same time.


----------



## Brad Sallows

Just auction the APCs off as tractor weights.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Maxman1 said:


> So basically OP Laser.


Op PROVISION more like it.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514682011897765888


----------



## The Bread Guy

Russia:  Better be careful, you nordic countries ....








						Russia ‘Would Deploy Nuclear Arms’ Near Finland, Sweden if Join NATO - The Moscow Times
					

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev warned Thursday that Russia would deploy nuclear weapons close to the Baltic States and Scandinavia if Finland or Sweden decide to join NATO.




					www.themoscowtimes.com
				



... Lithuania:  Really, dude? ...




__





						Russia already has nuclear weapons in the Baltic region, says Lithuania
					

VILNIUS — Russia already has nuclear weapons in the Baltic region, Lithuanian Defence Minister Arvydas Anusauskas said on Thursday.




					nationalpost.com
				



... Russia:  Oh yeah?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Breaking....


Russian warship Moskva sinks in Black Sea, Russian Ministry of Defense reported via state media​From Jorge Engels in London and Vasco Cotovio in Kyiv

The Russian warship Moskva has sunk, Russian state news agency TASS reported, citing a statement from the Russian Ministry of Defense.



> "During the towing of the cruiser Moskva to the port of destination, the ship lost its stability due to hull damage received during a fire from the detonation of ammunition. In the conditions of stormy seas, the ship sank," the statement said according to TASS.



Conflicting accounts have emerged about an incident involving the warship in the Black Sea on Wednesday.

Russia said a fire broke out on the guided-missile cruiser, causing munitions aboard to explode, inflicting serious damage to the vessel, and forcing the crew of the warship to be evacuated. Ukraine says it hit the Moskva with anti-ship missiles and later claimed that she had been sunk.

CNN has not been able to independently verify what caused the damage to the ship. 










						Russian warship Moskva sinks in Black Sea, Russian Ministry of Defense reported via state media
					

The US and EU have pledged a combined $1.3 billion more in military aid for Ukraine as Russia prepares to launch an eastern offensive.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## OldSolduer

TheProfessional said:


> Savage. Hahaha
> 
> Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. Weak men create bad times. And so on and so forth.
> 
> Guess which part of the cycle western nations are in?


Well let me just say that showing off your fancy fucking sox at an international gathering of the heads of the major nations of the West make you look like a fucking idiot. 

Sorry for the profanity. The old school RSM in me came forth.


----------



## McG

All remaining Black Sea Fleet ships are taking precautions against spontaneous fires.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514629224300224519


----------



## Brad Sallows

"Fleet-in-retirement", a new doctrine.


----------



## Skysix

McG said:


> All remaining Black Sea Fleet ships are taking precautions against spontaneous fires.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514629224300224519


If Harpoons are available, and ISR good enough for targeting, they should hit 1 every day. Even in port. Crimea is in range and Sevastopol gets them out of the Black sea.


----------



## JLB50

I wonder how many and what type surface ships they currently have off shore now that the Moskva has sunk.  I’m assuming they have a few subs there.


----------



## RangerRay

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514682011897765888


Well, looking at Shoigu and Gerasimov during Putin's war announcement meeting, both looked very uncomfortable and did not want to be there.  I am guessing that this heart attack may be legit.  They were looking at each other with that "Oh, shit!' look.


----------



## Brad Sallows

Waiting for pro-Russian posters to explain that Moskva was deployed as a fireship to clear the region of major Ukrainian surface vessels...and succeeded, as you can see, because there are no longer any major Ukrainian surface vessels operating in that area...


----------



## KevinB

More from Darth Putin 



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514682781875544071


----------



## Haggis

In other news, Putin makes a visit to the Moskva to recognize the ship's company for successfully intercepting Ukrainian missiles.


----------



## KevinB

Creative 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514605519440281609


----------



## AlexanderM

I would have bet on the Ukrainian farmers!


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514716451856343051


----------



## Skysix

dapaterson said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514382681219518464



Given the Ukrainian 
history of being overrun by both east and west, and their  demonstrated expertise in audiovisuals and the infowars, I fully expect to see a version of these soon:


----------



## KevinB

Russia has yet to slow a Western arms express into Ukraine
					

Russian military is making little headway halting what has become a historic arms express.




					www.defensenews.com


----------



## KevinB

US unveils $800 million in weapons and equipment, plus training, for Ukraine
					

Here are the weapons and systems heading to Ukraine under a new American aid package.




					www.defensenews.com


----------



## KevinB

Biden says 'Yeah' he's ready to go to Ukraine in person
					

President Joe Biden told reporters that he was ready to go to Ukraine in person prior to boarding Air Force One on Thursday. When asked by a reporter if




					americanmilitarynews.com


----------



## Spencer100

KevinB said:


> Biden says 'Yeah' he's ready to go to Ukraine in person
> 
> 
> President Joe Biden told reporters that he was ready to go to Ukraine in person prior to boarding Air Force One on Thursday. When asked by a reporter if
> 
> 
> 
> 
> americanmilitarynews.com


He doesn't even know where is going today. Does he even know where Ukraine is?  Sorry but I'm so tired of his and our guy's actions on this.


----------



## Weinie

KevinB said:


> Biden says 'Yeah' he's ready to go to Ukraine in person
> 
> 
> President Joe Biden told reporters that he was ready to go to Ukraine in person prior to boarding Air Force One on Thursday. When asked by a reporter if
> 
> 
> 
> 
> americanmilitarynews.com


Sort of anti-climatic now, seeing as most of the European leaders have already visited. Just keep sending money and arms Joe.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Spencer100 said:


> He doesn't even know where is going today. Does he even know where Ukraine is?  Sorry but I'm so tired of his and our guy's actions on this.


Ukraine?  Is that like near Syracuse?

No Joe, that's Utica 😁



Weinie said:


> Sort of anti-climatic now, seeing as most of the European leaders have already visited. Just keep sending money and arms Joe.









Joe Biden sure packs a great box lunch!


----------



## brihard

Russian government is now claiming that the fire on Moskva has been succesfully extinguished.


----------



## Kat Stevens

brihard said:


> Russian government is now claiming that the fire on Moskva has been succesfully extinguished.


... by the Black Sea.


----------



## ModlrMike

Stuff is kinda hard to burn when it's under water.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Admiral of the Black Sea Fleet walking into the Kremlin:


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Kirkhill said:


> Interesting that they didn't seem to be able to look high, at the Bayraktar or whatever, and low at the missiles at the same time.








Hard to guess what their EMCON posture was…


----------



## Eye In The Sky

This one will sell out fast!


----------



## MilEME09

I think its safe to say the black sea fleet is no longer strategically relevant in this conflict. Which is good for Ukraine  as they had 3 brigades defending Odessa from possible attack.

This is a huge victory for Ukraine, demoralizing for Russia,  and there are reports Russian troops aren't being paid any more, or receiving their bonus pay for staying to fight in Ukraine. As a result they are tossing their gear away and going home.

Don't know if true, but I wouldn't Blane them if it was.


----------



## suffolkowner

apparently the TB2 took out the radar and then it was hit with two Neptunes!?!? Easy peasy

I've wanted to see how Russian warships would respond to a missile attack but I'm not sure how much we can learn from it now given how poorly/easy this went down. I guess Ukraine will just have to do it a couple more times to establish a pattern


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514574150823784448


----------



## JLB50

*While it was being towed, would the Moskva likely have had a small skeleton crew on board?*


----------



## Eye In The Sky

suffolkowner said:


> apparently the TB2 took out the radar



Source?  Curious; “the” radar. There’s a few…


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Eye In The Sky said:


> Source?  Curious; “the” radar. There’s a few…


How many Radars do our own Ship's have?  First Right answer gets a cookie 😁


----------



## Good2Golf

Humphrey Bogart said:


> How many Radars do our own Ship's have?  First Right answer gets a cookie 😁


Enough.


----------



## Good2Golf

Where do I claim my cookie? 🍪


----------



## Halifax Tar

Humphrey Bogart said:


> How many Radars do our own Ship's have?  First Right answer gets a cookie 😁



Do bridge look outs count ?


----------



## Skysix

Halifax Tar said:


> Do bridge look outs count ?


Only if they wear horn-rimmed glasses and have supernatural hearing.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Halifax Tar said:


> Do bridge look outs count ?


3rd OOW is basically a radar.  They usually have their heads glued to the bloody things and have no idea what they are looking at 😁

Back on topic:

How many people predict massive retaliation from Russia if the Ukraine did in fact do this to the Moskva?


----------



## Good2Golf

Humphrey Bogart said:


> How many people predict massive retaliation from Russia if the Ukraine did in fact do this to the Moskva?


Well, since LOAC ‘proportionality’ hasn’t stopped Team Vlad yet, I suspect RF will just keep on being them…which may or may not include one short-range leg of their triad… 🤷🏻‍♂️


----------



## McG

Russia is pretty much all-in already. Unless you are thinking a nuclear escalation, I don’t know that they have anything in reserve for a retaliation.


----------



## daftandbarmy

McG said:


> Russia is pretty much all-in already. Unless you are thinking a nuclear escalation, I don’t know that they have anything in reserve for a retaliation.



Speaking of escalation....

Russia warns of nuclear, hypersonic deployment if Sweden and Finland join NATO​By Guy Faulconbridge



Summary

Finland and Sweden consider NATO membership
Russia warns of nuclear deployment
Says Iskander and hypersonic missiles would be deployed
Lithuania says there's nothing new in Russia's threats
LONDON, April 14 (Reuters) - One of Russian President Vladimir Putin's closest allies warned NATO on Thursday that if Sweden and Finland joined the U.S.-led military alliance then Russia would deploy nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles in a European exclave.
Finland, which shares a 1,300-km (810-mile) border with Russia, and Sweden are considering joining the NATO alliance. Finland will decide in the next few weeks, Prime Minister Sanna Marin said on Wednesday. read more









						Russia warns of nuclear, hypersonic deployment if Sweden and Finland join NATO
					

One of Russian President Vladimir Putin's closest allies warned NATO on Thursday that if Sweden and Finland joined the U.S.-led military alliance then Russia would deploy nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles in a European exclave.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Good2Golf said:


> Well, since LOAC ‘proportionality’ hasn’t stopped Team Vlad yet, I suspect RF will just keep on being them…which may or may not include one short-range leg of their triad… 🤷🏻‍♂️


I'm thinking WMD on Odesa, not Nuclear but Chemical.


----------



## suffolkowner

30n6

Russian internet troll. 

post was not meant to be some kind of definitive analysis but while we are picking fly poop out of the pepper perhaps we can look a little closer afield. I find it hard to believe that a TB2 could target *A specific radar * but await further education


----------



## Lumber

Humphrey Bogart said:


> How many Radars do our own Ship's have?  First Right answer gets a cookie 😁


Lets assume an HR deployer, in which case I'm going with 17.


----------



## The Bread Guy

daftandbarmy said:


> Russia warns of nuclear, hypersonic deployment if Sweden and Finland join NATO ....


Lithuania:  You mean there aren't any already?




__





						Russia already has nuclear weapons in the Baltic region, says Lithuania
					

VILNIUS — Russia already has nuclear weapons in the Baltic region, Lithuanian Defence Minister Arvydas Anusauskas said on Thursday.




					nationalpost.com


----------



## Lumber

Kirkhill said:


> Interesting that they didn't seem to be able to look high, at the Bayraktar or whatever, and low at the missiles at the same time.


Did they _technically _have sufficient radars and a combat managements system capable of seeing both a loitering UAV and incoming sea-skimmers? Probably.

Did they _physically _have enough trained personnel to detect and assess both the loitering UAV and the incoming sea-skimmers?
Also, probably.

But that ignores the confusion of war. Here are some factors to consider:
1. The weather was poor. A  portion of the crew was probably sea sick, and the rest were probably tired regardless from being at sea for a month and a half at high levels of readiness the entire time;
2. I've read places that Moskva was providing air cover for operations ivo Kryvyi Rih. Her combat team was probably initially focused on that;
3. Up to this point, the Uks had never provided any kind of legitimate threat to the main body of the Black Sea fleet. I wouldn't even be surprised if they had been feed poor intel assessments stating that the Uks don't have any working ASCMs. So, the crew was probably starting to get complacent, and wasn't even looking for other threats while focusing on Kryvyi Rih;
4. The sudden arrival of a Bayraktar, threating a major combatant warship for the first time, while the crew is focused on the air picture over Kryvyi Rih, would cause tensions to rise quickly and suck the team's focus in on the low-slow flying Bayraktar. I've seen this happen to well trained teams. You throw them a curveball when they are already busy, and they get tunnel vision and can't see anything but that singular new threat/problem;
5. Given the poor weather, and the age of the ship's systems, it's possible they wouldn't have detected the Neptunes until they were within 30s to impact. That's not a lot of time to notice the new radar contacts, assess them, determine they are a threat, decide to kill them, assign weapons, and execute an engagement against them. If the crew was at all in a state of complacency as alluded to in para 3, then they might not even have had all their weapons and weapons crews fully at the ready, thereby increasing the time needed to react to the threat.


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> 3rd OOW is basically a radar.  They usually have their heads glued to the bloody things and have no idea what they are looking at 😁
> 
> Back on topic:
> 
> How many people predict massive retaliation from Russia if the Ukraine did in fact do this to the Moskva?



I'm sure they will keep it proportional.  Target the Ukraynia in Mykolaiv.


----------



## Lumber

suffolkowner said:


> 30n6
> 
> Russian internet troll.
> 
> post was not meant to be some kind of definitive analysis but while we are picking fly poop out of the pepper perhaps we can look a little closer afield. I find it hard to believe that a TB2 could target *A specific radar * but await further education


It depends on what weapons it's carrying. Anti-Radiation Missiles home-in on a specific radar frequency band, and the radar it's homing in on would likely be the point of impact. In theory such missiles would do a LOT more damage then just "take out a radar" (which wouldn't require much damage), but maybe (if this really did happen) it was a dud and it just smashed through the radar with kinetic force.


----------



## Fishbone Jones

This came across my feed today. Absolutely, 100% spot on. It's our own fault.

I came across this statement from Robin Horsfall, a former SAS Soldier. 
He is now a Writer, Veterans Campaigner, and Public Speaker.
You Got Fat!
NATO, you got fat and flabby and lazy. You sat on the laurels earned by and taught to you by the deaths of sixty million in WW2. You thought and taught, that it could never happen again.
During the cold war, you maintained your armed forces and remembered the horrors that tyranny and authoritarianism can create. Your warriors remained alert and ready while your academics and historians taught the lessons of the past. You remembered the sacrifices of a whole generation.
But you grew soft! You questioned the morality of defensive war, you allowed holier than thou students to reduce your heroic actions to the level of the thug. At school, you stopped teaching your own history with pride and instead gave equity to those who would undermine your values. You let that great grubby god 'Money' steal your values and virtue, - substituting cash with the excuse 'Someone else will take it if I don't'.
Generals allowed their armies to be reduced to bland green reservists whose sole purpose was to march in concert with the lowest common denominator. Cheap and cheerful made it look good. By reducing your effectiveness in the name of 'equality', you trained your youth to cry and whine when confronted with failure and disappointment. You trained them to remain childish like puppies for their entire existence.
While the monsters of communism and fascism rebuilt their followings you wore your Hugo Boss, took your cash, and told us we were yesterday's people. You were the new awakening. Well, you are awake now the monster has returned and yes, - he still has nuclear weapons, - he still cares nothing for your values, and he certainly doesn't care if you cry - or die!
Where are your warriors, where are your leaders? Where are the men and women who understood evil and the lessons of history? Not in your parliaments, not in your police forces and not in your schools. All your human rights are as nothing when a T72 tank comes down your road. Tanks don't understand 'INAPPROPRIATE'. There are new sacrifices to be made. Are you prepared to meet them as you ought?
"When I was a child, I spoke as a child, I understood as a child, I thought as a child; but when I became a man, I put away childish things."
You are awake now little children, and it's time to grow up!
Slava Ukraine.


----------



## suffolkowner

Lumber said:


> It depends on what weapons it's carrying. Anti-Radiation Missiles home-in on a specific radar frequency band, and the radar it's homing in on would likely be the point of impact. In theory such missiles would do a LOT more damage then just "take out a radar" (which wouldn't require much damage), but maybe (if this really did happen) it was a dud and it just smashed through the radar with kinetic force.


thanks Lumber. I'm curious if it would really matter what radar was lost as you say a lot of damage is possible but is there a scale of importance of loss with respect to the various radars?

also below corporalfrisks take on the loss of the moskva









						Ukraine successfully burns Moskva
					

In general, the ships contain a great deal of flammable material and appear to lack adequate damage-control features. Those are the words of Eric Wertheim describing the Slava-class guided-missile …




					corporalfrisk.com


----------



## Skysix

Halifax Tar said:


> Do bridge look outs count ?


Only if they wear  horn-rimmed glasses and have supernatural hearing.


----------



## The Bread Guy

In the words of Bugs Bunny, "it was a tewwible storm ...."


----------



## Lumber

suffolkowner said:


> thanks Lumber. I'm curious if it would really matter what radar was lost as you say a lot of damage is possible but is there a scale of importance of loss with respect to the various radars?



Hard to say because I don't know enough about their radars. Both of the Slava's main radars are 3D air-search radars, so she has some redundancy. If she lost one, the other would still be available, but again some radars are better at picking up sea-skimmers than others, and if her radars were in fact tuned to see farther away over Kryvyi Rih, then they might not be tuned to look for sea-skimmers at all.


----------



## PuckChaser

So did the Russian Warship actually go fuck itself, or does it just suck at missile defense? @Soldier35 please fill us in.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

suffolkowner said:


> thanks Lumber. I'm curious if it would really matter what radar was lost as you say a lot of damage is possible but is there a scale of importance of loss with respect to the various radars?
> 
> also below corporalfrisks take on the loss of the moskva
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine successfully burns Moskva
> 
> 
> In general, the ships contain a great deal of flammable material and appear to lack adequate damage-control features. Those are the words of Eric Wertheim describing the Slava-class guided-missile …
> 
> 
> 
> 
> corporalfrisk.com


Ships have many different radars tuned to different frequrncy bands and spectrums.

You've got 3D Radars, 2D Radars, Fire Control Radars, Navigation Radars, etc.  

Each Radar has different uses and is tuned to provide different pieces of information.


----------



## suffolkowner

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Ships have many different radars tuned to different frequrncy bands and spectrums.
> 
> You've got 3D Radars, 2D Radars, Fire Control Radars, Navigation Radars, etc.
> 
> Each Radar has different uses and is tuned to provide different pieces of information.


If you had to loose one how would you prioritize between them?

from corporal frisk above, accurate?

"An interesting detail is that there are rumours around a Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 appearing in the area to ‘distract’ the Moskva during the attack. In fact, it is not at all a far-fetched idea. The major issue of the S-300F compared to newer systems is the limited ability to track multiple targets. *The system can intercept up to 6 targets at a time, but only within a 60° sector as the system is tied to a single 3P-41 Volna (TOP DOME) radar. *Considering the additional circumstances of the vessel having sustained operations on wartime footing for weeks and it being a stormy night, the crew handling the air defence systems becoming fixated on a drone is entirely possible, especially as sea-skimming missiles would have been even harder to detect on the radar than usual among the low-altitude clutter caused by the stormy conditions. The TB2 might certainly have been combining the distraction role with that of feeding position date of the vessel back to the firing battery (let’s remember that a number of the Bayraktars are operated by the Navy). Some really fancy accounts are even saying that the Bayraktar would have taken out the air defence radars before the sea-skimmers came in, but even if theoretically possible I find it extremely unlikely. Let’s remember that the technology level of the air defences is roughly corresponding to the most modern air defence systems the Royal Navy vessels that went to the Falklands back in 1982 were sporting, and the issues they had with picking up Exocet missiles in time are well-known. The shorter-range systems should in theory have been able to intercept the missiles, but there are several explanations as to why they didn’t do so, ranging from poor performance through to not being active due to the crew underestimating the threat from anti-ship missiles (both of which have earlier lead to wartime losses for different navies)."


----------



## Lumber

@Humphrey Bogart am I getting my cookie or what?


----------



## Lumber

suffolkowner said:


> If you had to loose one how would you prioritize between them?
> 
> from corporal frisk above, accurate?
> 
> "An interesting detail is that there are rumours around a Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 appearing in the area to ‘distract’ the Moskva during the attack. In fact, it is not at all a far-fetched idea. The major issue of the S-300F compared to newer systems is the limited ability to track multiple targets. *The system can intercept up to 6 targets at a time, but only within a 60° sector as the system is tied to a single 3P-41 Volna (TOP DOME) radar. *Considering the additional circumstances of the vessel having sustained operations on wartime footing for weeks and it being a stormy night, the crew handling the air defence systems becoming fixated on a drone is entirely possible, especially as sea-skimming missiles would have been even harder to detect on the radar than usual among the low-altitude clutter caused by the stormy conditions. The TB2 might certainly have been combining the distraction role with that of feeding position date of the vessel back to the firing battery (let’s remember that a number of the Bayraktars are operated by the Navy). Some really fancy accounts are even saying that the Bayraktar would have taken out the air defence radars before the sea-skimmers came in, but even if theoretically possible I find it extremely unlikely. Let’s remember that the technology level of the air defences is roughly corresponding to the most modern air defence systems the Royal Navy vessels that went to the Falklands back in 1982 were sporting, and the issues they had with picking up Exocet missiles in time are well-known. The shorter-range systems should in theory have been able to intercept the missiles, but there are several explanations as to why they didn’t do so, ranging from poor performance through to not being active due to the crew underestimating the threat from anti-ship missiles (both of which have earlier lead to wartime losses for different navies)."


 I promise, I didn't write this...


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514763656185098290


----------



## The Bread Guy

This certainly didn't take long ...


----------



## KevinB

Where did the report of stormy weather come from. 
   Weather in the areas was fairly brisk 17kt winds but nothing crazy. 

There was a non OS video leaked on Twitter of a missile impact and the forward magazine going skadoosh- it was taken down in fair short order.


----------



## dapaterson

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514776527862317068


----------



## MilEME09

dapaterson said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514776527862317068




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514648969137336328


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514608885922865158


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> Where did the report of stormy weather come from.
> Weather in the areas was fairly brisk 17kt winds but nothing crazy.
> 
> There was a non OS video leaked on Twitter of a missile impact and the forward magazine going skadoosh- it was taken down in fair short order.


Weather was good during the tow, but the night she was hit, weather was rough with high swells. The rough weather claim while under tow is likely misinformation to cover that Ukraine got her and their damage control couldn't save her.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514681561412780035


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514554182367420423


----------



## Zipperhead99

The Bread Guy said:


> This certainly didn't take long ...
> View attachment 70096


No, it did not!


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514554182367420423


Don't forget only Navy to loose their flag ship to another country without an active navy.


----------



## KevinB

Well I didn’t see this coming.  

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514657810423840768


----------



## Zipperhead99

Some interesting analysis









						Returning Veterans of Putin’s War in Ukraine Pose Serious Threat to Russia’s Future - Jamestown
					

When veterans of the Soviet war in Afghanistan—the so-called “Afgantsy”—and veterans of the two Russian campaigns in Chechnya returned to their homes, many had a difficult time fitting back into a peaceful life. Some used the military skills they had acquired to engage in various kinds of crime...




					jamestown.org


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514770732185755648


----------



## TacticalTea

torg003 said:


> IMO, the current Federal system doesn't work.  The pandemic has shown that provincial governments don't work, they are a hinderance to National action.  Get rid of provinces altogether.  Would need to reform the electoral system and how Parliament works.  Won't happen of course, but we do need to strengthen the role of the National government.  Though we can't realistically get rid of provinces, splitting them up into smaller ones (which would then have less power) might work better.


This is going back several pages and a bit off-topic but I wanted to say that, as opposed to what you seem to believe, many - myself included - think this would be unthinkable and an utterly terrible idea. One prominent reason as stated below:


Brad Sallows said:


> More than just a single, federal government is vital.  The likelihood one government is going to get it right on every problem is small.


For a good read on that idea and other contiguous ones, I recommend _The Virtue of Nationalism - Yoram Hazony._


NavyShooter said:


> Actually, I think it does.
> 
> Militarily, yes, it's a chess piece off the board...however, that chess piece has likely been almost silent for the past few weeks - yes, the whole snake island thing at the start...and there was a NGFS event as well I think...but it's been a 'fleet in being' off the coast, rather than an integral part of ongoing operations.
> 
> However.
> 
> Morale - there's a big boost to morale based on this being the flagship...and named MOSCOW....that's a big FU to big bad Vlad.
> 
> That's worth a lot in the case of folks who are about to face down a new/rejuvenated offensive from the east.
> 
> NS


If I'm reading you right, this is wholly inaccurate. The Black sea fleet has been actively involved in the war, contributing to the RUS war effort via sealift operations, (improvised) cruise missile strikes, and blockade of civilian shipping.


brihard said:


> Well, I guess now they can get 2 cruisers' worth of clean underwear resupply. They may need it.


I love that both our minds went exactly to the same place.




Good2Golf said:


> Well, since LOAC ‘proportionality’ hasn’t stopped Team Vlad yet, I suspect RF will just keep on being them…which may or may not include one short-range leg of their triad… 🤷🏻‍♂️


I agree with the first half of your statement, but the second half I imagine is not serious? Russia has lost ships before in this war, there's no reason to think losing another would lead to nuclear escalation. That's not what Russia has signalled, nor is it seemingly part of their doctrine.



Lumber said:


> So, first you have to understand how Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles (ASCMs) work. They are fire and forget weapons. All you need to do is tell them where the target is, and they will fly out and find it on there own. You can provide the missile with that targeting info by literally _any means_. You could have the ASCM system connected to a advanced combat management system linked to radars and satellites, or you could literally just have someone call you on the radio and say "there's a ship at Lat/Long going north east at around 15 knots", then program that position/course/speed manually into the system, and fire away. Obviously the "older" the info you enter into the system, the less accurate the shot will be.
> 
> So, here's how I figured it went down.
> 
> At the range we're talking about (50-60nm, but really anything over 25 ish nautical miles), you'd need _third party _targeting. I don't think Ukraine has the capability to maintain constant surveillance of the Black Sea with up to date (i.e. by the second) and accurate (positon, course, and speed) over-the-horizon information. But! If they new where to look, they could send a dedicated platform (helo, small boat, drone) over the horizon to confirm the contact and radio back to base it's position/course/speed.
> 
> Just a guess here, but I bet Moskva is likely under constant surveillance by NATO ISR air craft and other means. Humphrey Bogart is right in that there is no way we would allow Ukraine into our Link network (even if we wanted to, they don't even have compatible equipment). However, perhaps Ukraine is being fed intel from NATO, as in "Hey Uks, Mosvka is currently inside 60nm from Odessa. Just saying, guys".
> 
> So, Ukraine preps their battery, launches a Bayraktar to confirm. The drone gets eyes on the target, which provides the Neptune system with an up-to-date postion/course/speed on the Moskva, and _woooooooosh_ Bulldogs away.
> 
> Now, how did two Ukrainian Neptune ASCMs get through a Cruiser's air defence?
> 
> It's easy:
> 1. Old ass ship;
> 2. Complacent crew augmented by conscripts with poor training;
> 3. Corruption leading to lack of functioning equipment and ammo that actually works;
> 4. Crew has their guard down; and
> 5. Just before the missiles come over the radar horizon, you have that same Bayraktar fire a few laser guided bombs at it, or have the drone itself charge the warship. The Moskva would have been so distracted by the drone they probably wouldn't even have noticed the Neptunes popping up over the horizon.
> 
> My 2c.





Lumber said:


> Did they _technically _have sufficient radars and a combat managements system capable of seeing both a loitering UAV and incoming sea-skimmers? Probably.
> 
> Did they _physically _have enough trained personnel to detect and assess both the loitering UAV and the incoming sea-skimmers?
> Also, probably.
> 
> But that ignores the confusion of war. Here are some factors to consider:
> 1. The weather was poor. A  portion of the crew was probably sea sick, and the rest were probably tired regardless from being at sea for a month and a half at high levels of readiness the entire time;
> 2. I've read places that Moskva was providing air cover for operations ivo Kryvyi Rih. Her combat team was probably initially focused on that;
> 3. Up to this point, the Uks had never provided any kind of legitimate threat to the main body of the Black Sea fleet. I wouldn't even be surprised if they had been feed poor intel assessments stating that the Uks don't have any working ASCMs. So, the crew was probably starting to get complacent, and wasn't even looking for other threats while focusing on Kryvyi Rih;
> 4. The sudden arrival of a Bayraktar, threating a major combatant warship for the first time, while the crew is focused on the air picture over Kryvyi Rih, would cause tensions to rise quickly and suck the team's focus in on the low-slow flying Bayraktar. I've seen this happen to well trained teams. You throw them a curveball when they are already busy, and they get tunnel vision and can't see anything but that singular new threat/problem;
> 5. Given the poor weather, and the age of the ship's systems, it's possible they wouldn't have detected the Neptunes until they were within 30s to impact. That's not a lot of time to notice the new radar contacts, assess them, determine they are a threat, decide to kill them, assign weapons, and execute an engagement against them. If the crew was at all in a state of complacency as alluded to in para 3, then they might not even have had all their weapons and weapons crews fully at the ready, thereby increasing the time needed to react to the threat.


Been busy lately, but this is pretty much what I would've written almost word for word, so I thank you Lumber for providing an actually insightful perspective.

There was some real 10th dentist energy in this thread surrounding this event. While I appreciate the value of a 10th dentist in the context of military strategic analysis, that posture doesn't warrant the smugness with which some have derided the Ukrainians here. Similarly, I think some are seemingly a bit too caught up in the hubris of ''things work the way they taught me on course XYZ, and there's no other possible avenue''.

I'd add: even Russia admitted early on that the fire was localized on the ship's broadside missiles... on the exterior... Which is yet another hint that it probably came from an external hit.

It seemed to me that the simplest explanation was that they were indeed hit by missiles. That Russia denied this version does not in any way constitute evidence that it didn't happen. Not to mean that everything they say is worthless either: when Putin said Ukraine shouldn't exist, he made his intentions clear that he would engage in genocide. The fact that western powers took 50 days to understand that... is a tragedy and a disgrace.

As you said, I could easily conceive that the men and women in our own Ops rooms could be distracted, tired, and fail to respond appropriately to a multi-axis threat. On the other hand, I find it inconceivable that one of our own ships could blow itself up; this isn't 1917. Yes, the Russian military has shown some level of incompetence, but that alone can't explain everything.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514827612694233088


----------



## Good2Golf

TacticalTea said:


> I agree with the first half of your statement, but the second half I imagine is not serious? Russia has lost ships before in this war, there's no reason to think losing another would lead to nuclear escalation. That's not what Russia has signalled, nor is it seemingly part of their doctrine.


I don’t know what doctrine you are referring to where use of nuclear weapons wouldn’t be in keeping with Russian military doctrine, but it literally IS PART OF CURRENT RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE, and has been (Russian Federation) since 2014, specifically:



> 8. The Russian Federation's military security is safeguarded by the sum total of the forces, means, and resources at its disposal.
> 
> Under present-day conditions the Russian Federation proceeds on the basis of the need to have a nuclear potential capable of guaranteeing a set level of damage to any aggressor (state or coalition of states) under any circumstances.
> 
> The nuclear weapons with which the Russian Federation Armed Forces are equipped are seen by the Russian Federation as a factor in deterring aggression, safeguarding the military security of the Russian Federation and its allies, and maintaining international stability and peace.
> 
> The Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and (or) its allies, *as well as in response to large-scale aggression utilizing conventional weapons in situations critical to the national security of the Russian Federation.*
> 
> The Russian Federation will not use nuclear weapons against states party to the Nonproliferation Treaty that do not possess nuclear weapons except in the event of an attack on the Russian Federation, the Russian Federation Armed Forces or other troops, its allies, or a state to which it has security commitments that is carried out or supported by a state without nuclear weapons jointly or in the context of allied commitments with a state with nuclear weapons.



The Russians couldn’t be clearer about the conditions of potential use of their nuclear weapons.


----------



## Eaglelord17

,


TacticalTea said:


> As you said, I could easily conceive that the men and women in our own Ops rooms could be distracted, tired, and fail to respond appropriately to a multi-axis threat. On the other hand, I find it inconceivable that one of our own ships could blow itself up; this isn't 1917. Yes, the Russian military has shown some level of incompetence, but that alone can't explain everything.


To be fair we did almost burn one of our ships out of commission, ran two of them together, and hit a sub off the sea floor in the last two decades. Just because we are more professional doesn’t mean we don’t make mistakes.


----------



## TacticalTea

Good2Golf said:


> I don’t know what doctrine you are referring to where use of nuclear weapons wouldn’t be in keeping with Russian military doctrine, but it literally IS PART OF CURRENT RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE, and has been (Russian Federation) since 2014, specifically:
> 
> 
> 
> The Russians couldn’t be clearer about the conditions of potential use of their nuclear weapons.


The Russian political elites have not been signaling that they feel such conditions exist.

They have reiterated that an existential threat to Russia would justify nuclear escalation, but haven't argued that this is the case. Their message remains that they're conducting a special military operation, not fighting a defensive or total war.

A ship lost to sea is objectively not an existential threat, or even subjectively, from Russia's point of view, according to what they've been saying.


----------



## TacticalTea

Eaglelord17 said:


> ,
> 
> To be fair we did almost burn one of our ships out of commission, ran two of them together, and hit a sub off the sea floor in the last two decades. Just because we are more professional doesn’t mean we don’t make mistakes.


I didn't imply that we don't make mistakes.

Just that blowing yourself up is a monumental catastrophe that seems to me much more unlikely than being shot at in theater, whether you're Canadian or Russian.


----------



## Good2Golf

TacticalTea said:


> The Russian political elites have not been signaling that they feel such conditions exist.
> 
> They have reiterated that an existential threat to Russia would justify nuclear escalation, but haven't argued that this is the case. Their message remains that they're conducting a special military operation, not fighting a defensive or total war.
> 
> A ship lost to sea is objectively not an existential threat, or even subjectively, from Russia's point of view, according to what they've been saying.


Is Dmitry Medvedev not ‘elite’ enough for you?





__





						Russia reasserts right to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine | Ukraine | The Guardian
					

Senior politician Dmitry Medvedev says Moscow’s nuclear doctrine does not require enemy state to use such weapons first




					amp.theguardian.com


----------



## TacticalTea

Good2Golf said:


> Is Dmitry Medvedev not ‘elite’ enough for you?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia reasserts right to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine | Ukraine | The Guardian
> 
> 
> Senior politician Dmitry Medvedev says Moscow’s nuclear doctrine does not require enemy state to use such weapons first
> 
> 
> 
> 
> amp.theguardian.com


I think you're reacting to the sensationalized article. Specifically, the headline.

If you read carefully, Medvedev is only reiterating the doctrine, which I've addressed in my last comment on this question.

Also you've got to distinguish between the nuclear posturing that Russia is engaging in to deter NATO intervention, and actual signals of a first or tactical strike. Just because you hear the word ''NUCLEAR!'' doesn't mean the end is nigh. There's some degree of analysis to engage in, here...

PS: Note also that they've been downplaying (Ukrainian responsibility for) the Moskva's sinking. Why downplay it if they meant to drum it up to justify escalation?


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514681561412780035


I dare anyone in a Western government to write this clearly & succinctly for public consumption.  #DareToDream


MilEME09 said:


> Don't forget only Navy to loose their flag ship to another country without an active navy.


Bazinga ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> Is Dmitry Medvedev not ‘elite’ enough for you?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia reasserts right to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine | Ukraine | The Guardian
> 
> 
> Senior politician Dmitry Medvedev says Moscow’s nuclear doctrine does not require enemy state to use such weapons first
> 
> 
> 
> 
> amp.theguardian.com


For the record, here's the Medvedev Doctrine from this piece


> ... He said: “We have a special document on nuclear deterrence. This document clearly indicates the grounds on which the Russian Federation is entitled to use nuclear weapons. There are a few of them, let me remind them to you: number one is the situation, when Russia is struck by a nuclear missile.
> 
> The second case is any use of other nuclear weapons against Russia or its allies.
> 
> “The third is an attack on a critical infrastructure that will have paralysed our nuclear deterrent forces.
> 
> And the fourth case is when an act of aggression is committed against Russia and its allies, which jeopardised the existence of the country itself, even without the use of nuclear weapons, that is, with the use of conventional weapons.” ...


Not as doctrinal as the documents, to be sure, but by most people's definitions, there's a "none of the above".  And a few commentators have added the "we're fighting for our True Slav way of life" tile to the narrative mosaic, using the word "existential", but still ...

Then again, definitions can become ... flexible as needed these days, especially from Team USSR 2.0.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Ships have many different radars tuned to different frequrncy bands and spectrums.
> 
> You've got 3D Radars, 2D Radars, Fire Control Radars, Navigation Radars, etc.
> 
> Each Radar has different uses and is tuned to provide different pieces of information.



Just to add, some radars are multi-mode;  they will transition from say, Tgt Acquisition to Fire Control, etc.  basically the parametrics will change with mode change - Freq being a main one.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

TacticalTea said:


> On the other hand, I find it inconceivable that one of our own ships could blow itself up; this isn't 1917. Yes, the Russian military has shown some level of incompetence, but that alone can't explain everything.



Onboard fires…ya those don’t happen in the RCN or other navies…









						Fire breaks out on Canadian warship off the coast of Norway, no injuries reported
					

The Canadian military says a fire broke out on one of its warships this early morning as the vessel was serving as the flagship of a NATO fleet.




					beta.ctvnews.ca
				




It is possible for older warships not to have the FF and DC systems modern ones do;  not being able contain a fire that leads to the loss of a vessel isn’t an impossibility either.

_The findings detailed widespread lapses in training, coordination, communication, fire preparedness, equipment maintenance and overall command and control.









						Navy probe finds major failures in fire that destroyed ship
					

WASHINGTON (AP) — A Navy report has concluded there were sweeping failures by commanders, crew members and others that fueled the July 2020 arson fire that destroyed the USS Bonhomme Richard, calling the massive five-day blaze in San Diego preventable and unacceptable.




					apnews.com
				



_


----------



## OldSolduer

From what I have read from all you Russian doctrine WRT nuclear arms isn't much different from Soviet doctrine.


----------



## Good2Golf

The Bread Guy said:


> For the record, here's the Medvedev Doctrine from this piece
> 
> Not as doctrinal as the documents, to be sure, but by most people's definitions, there's a "none of the above".  And a few commentators have added the "we're fighting for our True Slav way of life" tile to the narrative mosaic, using the word "existential", but still ...
> 
> Then again, definitions can become ... flexible as needed these days, especially from Team USSR 2.0.


@The Bread Guy at least you actually read the doctrine.  The fourth case is exactly what Russian doctrine would support use of NSNW.  That case existed far before the FIN/SWE joining NATO situation.  And as you note, we have seen enough examples Russians following select elements their doctrine throughout the invasion. 

My point remains that the use of nuclear weapons, and to be more precise, non-strategic nuclear weapons (the aforementioned NSNW) in the context of the invasion of Ukraine, by a RUSSIAN view of their doctrine, is entirely consistent with their extant (2014) military doctrine.  Others obviously would be shocked at their use, perhaps basing such surprise on some type of logic that Russia would somehow feel bound to progress from C to B to R before N.  Nowhere does their doctrine say that’s the case. Again, it’s literally in black and white - published eight years ago.  I for one, will not at all be surprised if one or more NSNW are used by Russia.  Not saying I want it to happen, but I won’t in the least be surprised if they do. 

$0.02


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> ... I for one, will not at all be surprised if one or more NSNW are used by Russia.  Not saying I want it to happen, but I won’t in the least be surprised if they do.


Agreed.  Taking a closer look at the written rules ...


> *... large-scale aggression utilizing conventional weapons in situations critical to the national security of the Russian Federation ...*


... _can_ be interpreted more broadly than Medvedev's "jeopardis(ing) the existence of the country itself" as justification for a WMD ramp up.

In other news, Callsign Big Cod has entered the chat (archived link to get through paywall) ....


> The retired general who once presided over Canada’s combat mission in Afghanistan is urging Ottawa to send hundreds of armoured vehicles to Ukraine and double its promised military aid to $1-billion, saying the besieged country must be able to repel the coming land assault from Russia.
> 
> (...)
> 
> Mr. Hillier said Canada has no urgent need for its own inventory of light armoured vehicles (LAVs) and should send them now. “I understand the army wouldn’t want to lose 200 LAV IIIs but, hey, we’re not sending the army anywhere in the short term,” he said.
> 
> He urges Ottawa to place an expedited order with the General Dynamics LAV manufacturing factory in London, Ont., to not only replace the lost Canadian inventory but build another 300 to 500 additional LAVs for Ukraine.
> 
> “It’s a wonderful fighting vehicle,” he said of the LAV.
> 
> The Armed Forces has 550 of these General Dynamics LAV fighting vehicles, 162 Bison armoured vehicles and 66 Coyote armoured vehicles ...


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514902489535066114

Some of you might wonder what the difference is. Legally speaking it would allow mass conscription, troops would no longer be allowed to refuse to go to the front without going to jail.


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514902489535066114
> 
> Some of you might wonder what the difference is. Legally speaking it would allow mass conscription, troops would no longer be allowed to refuse to go to the front without going to jail.


I dont know enough about the internal situation in Russia obviously but why the hesitance to declare it a war?


----------



## The Bread Guy

suffolkowner said:


> I dont know enough about the internal situation in Russia obviously but why the hesitance to declare it a war?


There may be worries about how a _mass_ conscription/mobilization would go over, as opposed to tweaking rules to get mo' folks in here & there as they seem to be doing now.


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514941186397683715


----------



## suffolkowner

McG said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514941186397683715


What assets are still available to the Russians in the Black Sea?

I see this but were the Russians able to transfer more in before Turkey closed the straits?





__





						H I Sutton - Covert Shores
					





					www.hisutton.com


----------



## McG

They moved in several amphibious ships and at least one smaller combatant before the invasion. So there are still a handful of frigates, amphibious ships, and corvettes. I saw sources that claimed a second cruiser was in the Black Sea, but I cannot find any that identify said cruiser (so it may not exist).


----------



## ueo

TacticalTea said:


> This is going back several pages and a bit off-topic but I wanted to say that, as opposed to what you seem to believe, many - myself included - think this would be unthinkable and an utterly terrible idea. One prominent reason as stated below:
> 
> For a good read on that idea and other contiguous ones, I recommend _The Virtue of Nationalism - Yoram Hazony._
> 
> If I'm reading you right, this is wholly inaccurate. The Black sea fleet has been actively involved in the war, contributing to the RUS war effort via sealift operations, (improvised) cruise missile strikes, and blockade of civilian shipping.
> 
> I love that both our minds went exactly to the same place.
> 
> 
> 
> I agree with the first half of your statement, but the second half I imagine is not serious? Russia has lost ships before in this war, there's no reason to think losing another would lead to nuclear escalation. That's not what Russia has signalled, nor is it seemingly part of their doctrine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Been busy lately, but this is pretty much what I would've written almost word for word, so I thank you Lumber for providing an actually insightful perspective.
> 
> There was some real 10th dentist energy in this thread surrounding this event. While I appreciate the value of a 10th dentist in the context of military strategic analysis, that posture doesn't warrant the smugness with which some have derided the Ukrainians here. Similarly, I think some are seemingly a bit too caught up in the hubris of ''things work the way they taught me on course XYZ, and there's no other possible avenue''.
> 
> I'd add: even Russia admitted early on that the fire was localized on the ship's broadside missiles... on the exterior... Which is yet another hint that it probably came from an external hit.
> 
> It seemed to me that the simplest explanation was that they were indeed hit by missiles. That Russia denied this version does not in any way constitute evidence that it didn't happen. Not to mean that everything they say is worthless either: when Putin said Ukraine shouldn't exist, he made his intentions clear that he would engage in genocide. The fact that western powers took 50 days to understand that... is a tragedy and a disgrace.
> 
> As you said, I could easily conceive that the men and women in our own Ops rooms could be distracted, tired, and fail to respond appropriately to a multi-axis threat. On the other hand, I find it inconceivable that one of our own ships could blow itself up; this isn't 1917. Yes, the Russian military has shown some level of incompetence, but that alone can't explain everything.


'Scuse me but what the hell is a/the 10th dentist pray tell.


----------



## Good2Golf

McG said:


> They moved in several amphibious ships and at least one smaller combatant before the invasion. So there are still a handful of frigates, amphibious ships, and corvettes. I saw sources that claimed a second cruiser was in the Black Sea, but I cannot find any that identify said cruiser (so it may not exist).


I suppose technically the uncompleted Slava-class _Ukrayina_ moored in Mykolaiv (just upriver from Kherson) might be considered ‘in or around’ the Black Sea… 🤷🏻‍♂️


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514902489535066114
> 
> Some of you might wonder what the difference is. Legally speaking it would allow mass conscription, troops would no longer be allowed to refuse to go to the front without going to jail.


Would they be ‘legally’ bound to the Geneva Convention and all that goes with it by formally declaring war?


----------



## Good2Golf

Czech_pivo said:


> Would they be ‘legally’ bound to the Geneva Convention and all that goes with it by formally declaring war?


You mean in the sense of being ‘legally’ bound to the Budapest Memorandum? 😉


----------



## GR66

ueo said:


> 'Scuse me but what the hell is a/the 10th dentist pray tell.


I took it as a dissenting voice....i.e. "9 out of 10 dentists agree"


----------



## TacticalTea

ueo said:


> 'Scuse me but what the hell is a/the 10th dentist pray tell.


A purposefully contrarian voice.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Charge sheet for a Russian soldier who refused to fight, apparently:


----------



## TacticalTea

Good2Golf said:


> @The Bread Guy at least you actually read the doctrine.  The fourth case is exactly what Russian doctrine would support use of NSNW.  That case existed far before the FIN/SWE joining NATO situation.  And as you note, we have seen enough examples Russians following select elements their doctrine throughout the invasion.
> 
> My point remains that the use of nuclear weapons, and to be more precise, non-strategic nuclear weapons (the aforementioned NSNW) in the context of the invasion of Ukraine, by a RUSSIAN view of their doctrine, is entirely consistent with their extant (2014) military doctrine.  Others obviously would be shocked at their use, perhaps basing such surprise on some type of logic that Russia would somehow feel bound to progress from C to B to R before N.  Nowhere does their doctrine say that’s the case. Again, it’s literally in black and white - published eight years ago.  I for one, will not at all be surprised if one or more NSNW are used by Russia.  Not saying I want it to happen, but I won’t in the least be surprised if they do.
> 
> $0.02


I didn't say it couldn't happen in this war.

I'm responding to your suggestion that it would be in retaliation to the Moskva's destruction.

Meanwhile, what's actually happening, much more in line with what one should've expected: 



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514995302272585730
Plus, reports of multiple conventional missile strikes across Ukraine.


----------



## brihard

Czech_pivo said:


> Would they be ‘legally’ bound to the Geneva Convention and all that goes with it by formally declaring war?


They already are.


----------



## Good2Golf

Good2Golf said:


> which *may or may not* include one short-range leg of their triad





TacticalTea said:


> I didn't say it couldn't happen in this war.
> 
> I'm responding to your suggestion that it *would* be in retaliation to the Moskva's destruction.



Didn’t say “would”, said “may or may not.”  

If that’s your heartache, I can’t help if you choose to alter grammar/logical structure of someone else’s statement. 🤷🏻‍♂️


----------



## OldSolduer

daftandbarmy said:


> Charge sheet for a Russian soldier who refused to fight, apparently:
> 
> View attachment 70108


And did they wait til sunrise to execute him - or her?


----------



## KevinB

Good2Golf said:


> Didn’t say “would”, said “may or may not.”
> 
> If that’s your heartache, I can’t help if you choose to alter grammar/logical structure of someone else’s statement. 🤷🏻‍♂️


As you know the Med article touched on Strategic Nuclear Forces, not their ‘Tactical’ lower yield warheads.     There have been many posts and articles on Russian doctrine and how they significantly differentiate between the two.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Would they be ‘legally’ bound to the Geneva Convention and all that goes with it by formally declaring war?



A question with a grey answer.  Nations and people can be held to customary practices and standards (ie. not relying on statutes, treaties, etc).  Statutory law can become so widely observed that it enters the realm of customary.


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> As you know the Med article touched on Strategic Nuclear Forces, not their ‘Tactical’ lower yield warheads.     There have been many posts and articles on Russian doctrine and how they significantly differentiate between the two.


Yup.  That’s the challenge when folks look at Russia’s view of strat and non-strat nukes the same way, when they aren’t.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Would they be ‘legally’ bound to the Geneva Convention and all that goes with it by formally declaring war?


As @brihard pointed out that a formality of a declaration does nothing in that respect.

LOAC and the various conventions related to that don’t require a formal declaration. 

Even countries that aren’t signatories usually try to stay within the arcs.

Except Russia…


----------



## TacticalTea

Good2Golf said:


> Didn’t say “would”, said “may or may not.”
> 
> If that’s your heartache, I can’t help if you choose to alter grammar/logical structure of someone else’s statement. 🤷🏻‍♂️


That doesn't make a difference. 

Either your statement had no meaning at all, at which point, why post it? 

Or you were suggesting it could indeed result from the Moskva's destruction. To which I respond this is largely unrealistic and unnecessarily alarmist.


----------



## TacticalTea

Good2Golf said:


> Yup.  That’s the challenge when folks look at Russia’s view of strat and non-strat nukes the same way, when they aren’t.


Are you kidding me? You're precisely that person! 

You were using Medvedev's strategic rhetoric to explain how they'd use tactical nukes. C'mon, man.


----------



## KevinB

TacticalTea said:


> Are you kidding me? You're precisely that person!
> 
> You were using Medvedev's strategic rhetoric to explain how they'd use tactical nukes. C'mon, man.


He isn’t.  I know @Good2Golf and he’s no slouch in knowing ones enemy’s doctrine. 

He is pointing out the difference between what Med said and the use of Strategic versus Tactical Weapons.    

Most have looked at Med’s comments and discounted nuclear weapons - not realizing the difference and Med has so far discounted Strategic Nuclear (large payload) weapons.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514988860555599875


----------



## Spencer100

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514988860555599875


Now that is provocation.  That could be the last straw.


----------



## Good2Golf

TacticalTea said:


> Are you kidding me? You're precisely that person!
> 
> You were using Medvedev's strategic rhetoric to explain how they'd use tactical nukes. C'mon, man.


My link to Medvedev’s statement was a critical thought alternative to your “Russian political elites have not been signaling that they feel such conditions exist” statement. 

The linked article included Medvedev’s paraphrased/translated statement, plus some relevant reactions from Zelenskyy and others:



> Dmitry *Medvedev*, a former Russian president who is *deputy chairman of the country’s security council*, said *Moscow could strike against an enemy that only used conventional weapons* while Vladimir Putin’s defence minister claimed nuclear “readiness” was a priority.
> 
> The comments on Saturday prompted Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in an appearance by video link at Qatar’s Doha Forum to warn that Moscow was a direct threat to the world.
> 
> “Russia is deliberating bragging they can destroy with nuclear weapons, not only a certain country but the entire planet,” Zelenskiy said.
> 
> Putin established the nuclear threat at the start of the war, warning that western intervention would reap “consequences you have never seen”.



Do you not consider Medvedev to be a “political elite?”

If not, then I suppose your position is that no (Russian) political elite made any statements about the possibility of using nuclear weapons in response to an enemy that used only  conventional…as recently as just three weeks ago.  

I acknowledge your position that Russia isn’t messaging the possibility of using nuclear weapons even in response to a conventionally-armed enemy. 

I don’t agree with it, I think it’s wrong to not appreciate/consider the words an adversary is saying, but that’s the beauty of life in a liberal democracy…we can agree to disagree.


----------



## TacticalTea

Good2Golf said:


> I acknowledge your position that Russia isn’t messaging the possibility of using nuclear weapons even in response to a conventionally-armed enemy.


That has not been my position. Funny that you complain about me supposedly twisting your words, innit?



Good2Golf said:


> I think it’s wrong to not appreciate/consider the words an adversary is saying


And I've said precisely that too.

It seems to me you're not actually trying to understand what either me or Medvedev are saying.

So I'm having a very hard time trying to see what Kevin sees in your comments. Medvedev is commenting on strategic nuclear weapons. Why you bring him up in relation to tactical weapons and then pretend you're not confounding the two... escapes me.

Medvedev is very clear about how and when nuclear escalation would be appropriate in response to conventional weapons. My point is that the circumstances he describes have not materialized, and Russia itself does not believe - or at least, has not shown that they believe - that those circumstances have materialized. 



Good2Golf said:


> Do you not consider Medvedev to be a “political elite?”


You cannot honestly ask that question after having read my comments. It should be very obvious to you what my answer is, so you're making it hard to think you're actually arguing in good faith. So on that note I'm going to say, agree to disagree, because we're going around in circles here.

Last word: facts on the ground are proving me right. Retaliation with deep, non-nuclear strikes has occurred. Case closed.


----------



## Haggis

McG said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514941186397683715


Make no mistake, the only reason the Black Sea Straits are "closed" is because Russia has not chosen to challenge the unilateral Turkish move to do so.  If the Russians move to reinforce the Black Sea Fleet, Turkey cannot stop them from doing so without a dramatic escalation of this war.


----------



## Brad Sallows

It doesn't have to be a dramatic escalation.  If Turkey enforces its closure against everyone (impartially), then a fight between Russia and Turkey is not a fight that has to involve NATO.  But it does mean two fronts for Russia.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

If Russia formally declares war on Ukraine, I'm predicting a massive escalation, the likes we have not seen since the 1939.

There are a lot of things the Russians have not done yet that they may yet do:

1.  Mass carpet bombing of Cities and the Civilian Population
2.  Chemical Weapons Attacks against Military AND civilian targets
3.  Mass Mobilization
4.  Nuclear strikes
5.  Countries aiding and abetting Ukraine now become a legitimate target for strikes
6.  Unrestricted Submarine Warfare

There are a plethora of things Russia could begin doing that they have not done yet.


----------



## Good2Golf

You seem to be okay with adding ‘strategic’ to Medvedev’s words, when he never said strategic in his statement.  Perhaps I missed it; maybe you could show me the quote from Medvedev where he restricted his comments to strategic use only, and not NSNW?




TacticalTea said:


> Last word: facts on the ground are proving me right. Retaliation with deep, non-nuclear strikes has occurred. Case closed.



Agree.  They exercised the “may not” branch.


----------



## suffolkowner

Humphrey Bogart said:


> If Russia formally declares war on Ukraine, I'm predicting a massive escalation, the likes we have not seen since the 1939.
> 
> There are a lot of things the Russians have not done yet that they may yet do:
> 
> 1.  Mass carpet bombing of Cities and the Civilian Population
> 2.  Chemical Weapons Attacks against Military AND civilian targets
> 3.  Mass Mobilization
> 4.  Nuclear strikes
> 5.  Countries aiding and abetting Ukraine now become a legitimate target for strikes
> 6.  Unrestricted Submarine Warfare
> 
> There are a plethora of things Russia could begin doing that they have not done yet.


Since a few days in I've been wondering exactly what Russia is capable of doing.
 In this I look specifically to your point number one and the restricted use of their bomber fleet to the launch of cruise missiles. 
Are they not comfortable with mass bombing from a training standpoint? 
Are they not comfortable with mass bombing from an ethical standpoint? Obviously I jest but...
Are they not comfortable with mass bombing due to the risk of exposing those strategic assets to whatever remains of Ukraines AD capabilities?


----------



## Brad Sallows

There are a lot of branches in the decision tree, and Putin doesn't get to make all of them.  Every action invites reaction. 

Consider mass bombing.  Not very militarily useful, unless focused where it degrades Ukraine's military capabilities.  Diplomatically a huge loss.  Based on history, indiscriminate use not likely to drive down Ukrainian morale.  Could prompt a huge redistribution of GBAD munitions from other countries into Ukraine, resulting in huge Russian losses or abrupt termination of bombing.


----------



## Kirkhill

Haggis said:


> Make no mistake, the only reason the Black Sea Straits are "closed" is because Russia has not chosen to challenge the unilateral Turkish move to do so.  If the Russians move to reinforce the Black Sea Fleet, Turkey cannot stop them from doing so without a dramatic escalation of this war.



Can Russia afford to make an engaged enemy out of Turkey?  It doesn't have the weight to force the Dardanelles and it certainly doesn't have the ability to successfully reprise Gallipoli.  In the meantime aggravating Turkey would support Azerbaijan and Georgia and threaten Volograd and Rostov from the South while Ukraine and NATO threatened from the West.  Turkey is still a member of NATO and neutrally aligned with Ukraine.









						Turkish Armed Forces - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				





Military age21–41[2]Conscription6 monthsActive personnel355,200[3]Reserve personnel380,000[4]


----------



## suffolkowner

Brad Sallows said:


> There are a lot of branches in the decision tree, and Putin doesn't get to make all of them.  Every action invites reaction.
> 
> Consider mass bombing.  Not very militarily useful, unless focused where it degrades Ukraine's military capabilities.  Diplomatically a huge loss.  Based on history, indiscriminate use not likely to drive down Ukrainian morale.  Could prompt a huge redistribution of GBAD munitions from other countries into Ukraine, resulting in huge Russian losses or abrupt termination of bombing.


I should have added

Are they not comfortable with the efficacy of mass bombing?


----------



## McG

Czech_pivo said:


> Would they be ‘legally’ bound to the Geneva Convention and all that goes with it by formally declaring war?


A formal declaration of war will change nothing from an international perspective. Russia invaded another country, and it is legally obliged to conform with the Geneva Conventions and other LOAC regardless of any declaration. Likewise, a declaration will not change what is or is not a legitimate military target nor will it broaden the scope of actions that may legally be taken.

A declaration would remove the lie that Russia is telling its citizens about not being at war, and it may change the legal dynamic internal to Russia itself.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515057735750070278


----------



## Skysix

Spencer100 said:


> Now that is provocation.  That could be the last straw.


Troll level 6


----------



## McG

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515057735750070278


Russia is getting desperate.


----------



## Skysix

Brad Sallows said:


> It doesn't have to be a dramatic escalation.  If Turkey enforces its closure against everyone (impartially), then a fight between Russia and Turkey is not a fight that has to involve NATO.  But it does mean two fronts for Russia.


I fail to see how retaliating against Turkey for blocking Russian ships is not an Article 5 event - unless Turkey strikes them first. Pretty sure a physical hull blockade 'crossing the T' where Russia fires on or rams a Turkish navy/naval reserve/naval auxillary vessel would qualify for Article 5. The straights are also Turkish waters IIRC.


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> If Russia formally declares war on Ukraine, I'm predicting a massive escalation, the likes we have not seen since the 1939.
> 
> There are a lot of things the Russians have not done yet that they may yet do:
> 
> 1.  Mass carpet bombing of Cities and the Civilian Population
> 2.  Chemical Weapons Attacks against Military AND civilian targets
> 3.  Mass Mobilization
> 4.  Nuclear strikes
> 5.  Countries aiding and abetting Ukraine now become a legitimate target for strikes
> 6.  Unrestricted Submarine Warfare
> 
> There are a plethora of things Russia could begin doing that they have not done yet.


Nuclear strikes would pretty much guarantee some elements of NATO getting involved and launching preemptive strikes against all of Russia’s CRBN arsenal, using SOF, Naval, Air and other means of precision conventional and low yield nuclear strikes. 

USSOCOM retains the means to insert small low yield manportable nuclear devices. 

I’m not sure Putin’s USSR 2.0 ambition is willing to risk Russia Version 0.0


----------



## Skysix

McG said:


> Russia is getting desperate.


And the fighters Ukraine has been begging for for WEEKS could likely have prevented these long range bombing sorties. As will more air defense units and AWACS targeting information.


----------



## KevinB

Skysix said:


> And the fighters Ukraine has been begging for for WEEKS could likely have prevented these long range bombing sorties. As will more air defense units and AWACS targeting information.


They have all the AWACS etc info.  We have been overly transparent about the fact we give Ukraine more than enough info.   The entire reason we have E-3, P-8, GlobalHawk etc up is to feed info to Ukraine. 

They simply have too many targets and not enough equipment.


----------



## McG

What the Montreux Convention is, and what it means for the Ukraine war
					

The Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits gives Turkey control over the water route between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean.




					theconversation.com


----------



## Brad Sallows

> I fail to see how retaliating against Turkey for blocking Russian ships is not an Article 5 event



It could be, if Turkey thinks it needs help.  Who knows what kind of future considerations NATO members might quietly offer to Turkey to stand apart on the matter, while receiving an influx of land-based anti-shipping munitions.


----------



## Zipperhead99

ISW weekly analysis and a related article from the Canadian Politics and Public Policy






						Institute for the Study of War
					

Ceasefire negotiations have effectively collapsed. Both Russian and Ukrainian officials are unprepared to engage in serious negotiations in the coming weeks in any format. Virtual negotiations are continuing without progress.[1] Kyiv and Moscow are both




					www.understandingwar.org
				









						A Cold War Turns Hot: What Needs to Happen Now? - Policy Magazine
					

April 10, 2022




					www.policymagazine.ca


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> Nuclear strikes would pretty much guarantee some elements of NATO getting involved and launching preemptive strikes against all of Russia’s CRBN arsenal, using SOF, Naval, Air and other means of precision conventional and low yield nuclear strikes.
> 
> USSOCOM retains the means to insert small low yield manportable nuclear devices.
> 
> I’m not sure Putin’s USSR 2.0 ambition is willing to risk Russia Version 0.0



Putin may be willing to take the risk.  I am still not convinced that Russia is.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515066445637595139


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515057735750070278


One of the many reasons why the west in general and the US in particular owes Ukraine



> Ukrainian Air Force and Navy inherited a large number of Tu-22M2/M3 bombers. 60 Tu-22Ms (17 Tu-22M2 and 43 Tu-22M3) and 423 Kh-22 cruise missiles were scrapped under the Nunn–Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction agreement led by the US.[98][99] The last bombers were scrapped in January 2006.[100]
> 13th Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Division – Poltava Air Base, Poltava Oblast[93]
> 185th Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment
> 
> 22nd Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Division – Stryi Air Base, Lviv Oblast[101]
> 260th Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment
> 
> 
> Ukrainian Naval Aviation
> 2nd Guards Maritime Missile Aviation Division[96]
> 5th Guards Maritime Missile Aviation Regiment – Veseloye, Crimea
> 943rd Maritime Missile Aviation Regiment – Oktiabrske, Crimea
> 
> 33rd Center for Combat Employment and Retraining of Personnel Aviation VMF – Kulbakino Air Base, Mykolaiv[97]
> 540th Instructor-Research Maritime Missile Aviation Regiment



They were asked to disarm and given assurances.  They disarmed....


----------



## Haggis

Kirkhill said:


> Can Russia afford to make an engaged enemy out of Turkey?  It doesn't have the weight to force the Dardanelles and it certainly doesn't have the ability to successfully reprise Gallipoli.  In the meantime aggravating Turkey would support Azerbaijan and Georgia and threaten Volograd and Rostov from the South while Ukraine and NATO threatened from the West.  Turkey is still a member of NATO and neutrally aligned with Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Turkish Armed Forces - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Military age21–41[2]Conscription6 monthsActive personnel355,200[3]Reserve personnel380,000[4]


Very little of what Russia has done so far has made strategic sense.  Putin could easily pull the nuke card on Turkey with "we will transit the straits unopposed or you will be obliterated". The threat of a first strike has kept NATO at bay so far.


----------



## Kirkhill

Haggis said:


> Very little of what Russia has done so far has made strategic sense.  Putin could easily pull the nuke card on Turkey with "we will transit the straits unopposed or you will be obliterated". The threat of a first strike has kept NATO at bay so far.


Not wrong.


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515057735750070278





Monte Cassino 1944



> ...pinpoint artillery attacks on Allied assault troops caused their leaders to conclude the abbey was being used by the Germans as an observation post, at the very least. Fears escalated along with casualties and in spite of a lack of clear evidence, it was marked for destruction. On 15 February American bombers dropped 1,400 tons of high explosives, creating widespread damage.[6] The raid failed to achieve its objective, as German paratroopers then occupied the rubble and established excellent defensive positions amid the ruins.



The Fallschirmjaeger held on for another 3 months.









						Battle of Monte Cassino - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## KevinB

Haggis said:


> Very little of what Russia has done so far has made strategic sense.  Putin could easily pull the nuke card on Turkey with "we will transit the straits unopposed or you will be obliterated". The threat of a first strike has kept NATO at bay so far.


Or Turkey might ask for US Intermediate Missiles to be repositioned in Turkey.  

Right now it’s so hard to fathom the Russian ‘next move’ because about the only thing Putin’s plan has accomplished is a massive FRP in both personnel and equipment.


----------



## Haggis

KevinB said:


> Or Turkey might ask for US Intermediate Missiles to be repositioned in Turkey.
> 
> Right now it’s so hard to fathom the Russian ‘next move’ because about the only thing Putin’s plan has accomplished is a massive FRP in both personnel and equipment.


I suspect that if a US missile battery fired on any Russian assets in, near or over the straits then North Dakota wouldn't have to wait for all that snow to melt.

We both agree that nothing Putin has done so far makes strategic sense. And one of his ministers has already talked openly of a preemptive strike on the US mainland "pour encourager les autres".


----------



## Brad Sallows

There are a few madmen on both sides trying to stoke emotions.  Fortunately, the era of gated media is dead.  Not much can be done from here to restrain hawks in Russia, but the neocons/warcons in the west get a resounding beating every time one of them publishes.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515049087896375296


----------



## Haggis

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515049087896375296


Shaping the battlespace for strikes against NATO supply lines to Ukraine?


----------



## suffolkowner

Haggis said:


> Very little of what Russia has done so far has made strategic sense.  Putin could easily pull the nuke card on Turkey with "we will transit the straits unopposed or you will be obliterated". The threat of a first strike has kept NATO at bay so far.


True. Russia had Crimea and half the Donbas at little cost, Putin was still a master strategist. Now Sweden and Finland are on the verge of NATO membership. Russia's military has been exposed in almost everyway possible and greatly degraded. They are stuck in a war that can be further expected to drain Russia of men, money and equipment with no possible positive outcome. NATO is energized and rearming. Europe is looking at alternative energy supplies. Russia is under heavy sanctions and its elites are losing their yachts and international. All the above forcing Russia if it continues on this path as a very junior partner to a China whos bargaining position has been greatly strengthened


----------



## Jarnhamar

Hopefully a Russian general somewhere gets a backbone, rallies some troops, and puts an end to Putins reign of stupidity.





KevinB said:


> USSOCOM retains the means to insert small low yield manportable nuclear devices.



I recall watching a documentary which I believe spoke about a former head of the CIA being trained with infiltrating the USSR with a backpack nuke.  Thought that was pretty slick.


----------



## Haggis

suffolkowner said:


> NATO is energized and rearming.


Not all of NATO.🇨🇦


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Haggis said:


> Not all of NATO.🇨🇦


Interesting things happening in France as well.


----------



## suffolkowner

Satellite Image Pinpoints Russian Cruiser Moskva As She Burned - Naval News
					

Analysis of radar satellite imagery has revealed the location of the Moskva soon after she was reportedly hit by 2 missiles. The Russian Navy cruiser was the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet and is a symbolic as well as naval loss for Russia.




					www.navalnews.com
				




further down in article details Russian naval assets moving towards Ukraine not away so perhaps an attack/landing


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515114249953161218


----------



## McG




----------



## Jarnhamar

Humphrey Bogart said:


> If Russia formally declares war on Ukraine, I'm predicting a massive escalation, the likes we have not seen since the 1939.
> 
> There are a lot of things the Russians have not done yet that they may yet do:
> 
> 1.  Mass carpet bombing of Cities and the Civilian Population
> 2.  Chemical Weapons Attacks against Military AND civilian targets
> 3.  Mass Mobilization
> 4.  Nuclear strikes
> 5.  Countries aiding and abetting Ukraine now become a legitimate target for strikes
> 6.  Unrestricted Submarine Warfare
> 
> There are a plethora of things Russia could begin doing that they have not done yet.




Great post.

I'll bet my hat that we'll see Russia doing those things very shortly.

They don't give a shit and are just going to do whatever they want. This idea that we can appease them or we should tread carefully lest they "declare war" on Ukraine is dumb.


----------



## MilEME09

Jarnhamar said:


> Great post.
> 
> I'll bet my hat that we'll see Russia doing those things very shortly.
> 
> They don't give a shit and are just going to do whatever they want. This idea that we can appease them or we should tread carefully lest they "declare war" on Ukraine is dumb.


I agree, Russia will do what ever it wants, doesn't matter what we do.


----------



## Prairie canuck

I keep asking myself if the Russian state and its aristocracy are so stupid and arrogant as to think there won't be similar retaliation set on them by NATO? As superior as they seem to think they are the present Russian culture an all ambitions to grow the empire would disappear and even if their chosen people were to crawl out of their bunkers in 10 yrs or more they would emerge to a poisoned dead world. Can their arrogance be so blinding as to ignore that?
It should be obvious to them but should a massive effort be made to "educate" the Russian people of these consequences?


----------



## JLB50

Putin has been at war with NATO for well over a decade now but just hasn’t scaled things up until now.  A few minor hacking skirmishes here, an occasional poisoning there.  In the meantime he’s showing his generals and political cronies how cowardly NATO is.  Kind of like how Hitler showed how easy it was to re-occupy the Rhineland, move into Austria, then the Sudetenland and eventually the whole of Czechoslovakia.  Until…


----------



## Gunnar

The problem is that some people are entirely unteachable, and unreachable.  It’s why we have militaries for defence - so that there is someone to say “no buddy, you can’t have that, you’ll get a bloody nose”.  Some things can’t be reasoned out.  It all comes down to “but I want it”.  It’s the same for a 6 year old brat, a thief, a rapist, a dictator.  They don’t listen to “no” - you need a means of enforcing “no”.  Which works until they think they have an edge.  At least with some children they stop looking for an angle, and actually develop morality.


----------



## Kirkhill

Meanwhile Hillier ....



> Mr. Hillier said Canada has no urgent need for its own inventory of light armoured vehicles (LAVs) and should send them now. “I understand the army wouldn’t want to lose 200 LAV IIIs but, hey, we’re not sending the army anywhere in the short term,” he said.
> 
> He urges Ottawa to place an expedited order with the General Dynamics LAV manufacturing factory in London, Ont., to not only replace the lost Canadian inventory but build another 300 to 500 additional LAVs for Ukraine.
> 
> “It’s a wonderful fighting vehicle,” he said of the LAV.
> 
> The Armed Forces has 550 of these General Dynamics LAV fighting vehicles, 162 Bison armoured vehicles and 66 Coyote armoured vehicles.











						Retired general Rick Hillier presses Ottawa to send more military gear to Ukraine
					

Canada should double military aid to $1-billion to help Ukraine in coming land battle with Russia, former chief of Canada’s defence staff says




					www.theglobeandmail.com


----------



## RangerRay

Jarnhamar said:


> Great post.
> 
> I'll bet my hat that we'll see Russia doing those things very shortly.
> 
> They don't give a shit and are just going to do whatever they want. This idea that we can appease them or we should tread carefully lest they "declare war" on Ukraine is dumb.


Yes.  All this hand-wringing about not wanting to provoke Russia.  Guess what?  Russia is provoked.  What are we going to do about it?


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515114249953161218


If you have the time, read the attached that appeared in RUS state media almost 2 weeks ago (archived version in Russian here).  It's an 8-page opinion/commentary piece from a Russian political consultant/academic who helped with pro-RUS presidential campaigns in UKR between 1998 and 2010.  

I hesitate playing the Godwin card, but to me, it reads like a RUS Mein-Kampf-ish plan for UKR.  Caveat lector ...

True, it's just one guy's opinion, and true, he sounds like he's believes in some extremist stuff, likely representing the furthest end of the spectrum.  But if RUS "state _controlled_" media shared this, well, there's a reason.

Sounds like poison fruit from the same tree as the Rossiya-1 stuff ....


----------



## suffolkowner

European NATO and the US still in so many ways send weak and conflicting signals that only serve to prolong Russia's invasion. Public announcements of the transfers of soviet era air defence systems, the Mig-29's and T-72's along with the intent to start the transition to NATO equipment would have to make Putin start to have second thoughts. 

I'm not sure what to make of Russia's recent bombing mission it could be that they are just running low on missiles and have no other choice it would be nice if a few were to fall from the sky. The same with their naval movements, be nice if a few more ships were lost but perhaps the Russians are hoping to target the Neptune batteries


----------



## The Bread Guy

Wonder what THIS guy did to draw RUS state media's eye?


----------



## Remius

The Bread Guy said:


> If you have the time, read the attached that appeared in RUS state media almost 2 weeks ago (archived version in Russian here).  It's an 8-page opinion/commentary piece from a Russian political consultant/academic who helped with pro-RUS presidential campaigns in UKR between 1998 and 2010.
> 
> I hesitate playing the Godwin card, but to me, it reads like a RUS Mein-Kampf-ish plan for UKR.  Caveat lector ...
> 
> True, it's just one guy's opinion, and true, he sounds like he's believes in some extremist stuff, likely representing the furthest end of the spectrum.  But if RUS "state _controlled_" media shared this, well, there's a reason.
> 
> Sounds like poison fruit from the same tree as the Rossiya-1 stuff ....


I’ll forgive your Godwin card playing.  If that card is to be played I cannot see any other comparable time or event  where playing it actually is applicable.


----------



## MilEME09

Zelensky says world should prepare for Russia to use nuclear weapons
					

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday warned that the world should take seriously and prepare for the possibility that Russia could use nuclear weapons in its attack on Ukraine…




					thehill.com


----------



## Kilted

Maxman1 said:


> So basically OP Laser.


That did happen on Op Lazer (I hope that that part isn't still OPSEC).


----------



## The Bread Guy

Haggis said:


> Shaping the battlespace for strikes against NATO supply lines to Ukraine?


Well, other higher up in the RUS heirarchy have said they consider convoys full of NATO stuff _in_ Ukraine to be legit targets, so maybe starting to inch things a bit further into NATO-land from the border, maybe?


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> If you have the time, read the attached that appeared in RUS state media almost 2 weeks ago (archived version in Russian here).  It's an 8-page opinion/commentary piece from a Russian political consultant/academic who helped with pro-RUS presidential campaigns in UKR between 1998 and 2010.
> 
> I hesitate playing the Godwin card, but to me, it reads like a RUS Mein-Kampf-ish plan for UKR.  Caveat lector ...
> 
> True, it's just one guy's opinion, and true, he sounds like he's believes in some extremist stuff, likely representing the furthest end of the spectrum.  But if RUS "state _controlled_" media shared this, well, there's a reason.
> 
> Sounds like poison fruit from the same tree as the Rossiya-1 stuff ....



I saw this a couple of days ago.  It reads so over the top.  Are we secure on the source and the translation?  This was put to the Russian public?


----------



## TacticalTea

Kirkhill said:


> Meanwhile Hillier ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Retired general Rick Hillier presses Ottawa to send more military gear to Ukraine
> 
> 
> Canada should double military aid to $1-billion to help Ukraine in coming land battle with Russia, former chief of Canada’s defence staff says
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theglobeandmail.com


I completely agree with him.

There is no immediate threat to Canada and whatever we'd send out, General Dynamics can rebuild in short order. So yes, get them to boost production to replace what we have, and send everything we already have to Ukraine (except whichever current high readiness brigade-group has, so that they can deploy if need be).



The Bread Guy said:


> I hesitate playing the Godwin card, but to me, it reads like a RUS Mein-Kampf-ish plan for UKR. Caveat lector...



I never ''play'' it because no event has been comparable to Nazi Germany's actions until this invasion. In this case, however, it is almost a repeat of history.


----------



## MilEME09

TacticalTea said:


> I completely agree with him.
> 
> There is no immediate threat to Canada and whatever we'd send out, General Dynamics can rebuild in short order. So yes, get them to boost production to replace what we have, and send everything we already have to Ukraine (except whichever current high readiness brigade-group has, so that they can deploy if need be).
> 
> 
> 
> I never ''play'' it because no event has been comparable to Nazi Germany's actions until this invasion. In this case, however, it is almost a repeat of history.


I wouldn't want to leave our cupboard too bare, that said I'd say send all our Bisons to GDLS for a complete overhaul, then ship them to Ukraine. 

If things get hotter, switch to a war time footing and 24h production


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> I wouldn't want to leave our cupboard too bare, that said I'd say send all our Bisons to GDLS for a complete overhaul, then ship them to Ukraine.
> 
> If things get hotter, switch to a war time footing and 24h production


Might want to have GDLS London transition to some other GDLS items before building yet more LAV.


----------



## The Bread Guy

TacticalTea said:


> ... In this case, however, it is almost a repeat of history.


... or at least a very close rhyming version ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:


> I saw this a couple of days ago.  It reads so over the top.  Are we secure on the source and the translation?  This was put to the Russian public?


The source is a link to a RUS "state owned media agency" (according to Wikipedia), so anyone who could access RIA Novosti could read it in Russia.  No idea on the hard-copy circulation details.  This outlet also published a UKR victory editorial 26 Feb before it was pulled (BBC link)

The translation is a Chrome translation, so it may not be perfect, but based on my experiences with other languages I know, it captures the tone.  Here's another translation done by "Ukrainian volunteers", so while it may not be completely unbiased, it gives the same vibe, tone & general details, so pick your poison, so to speak.

Also, there's been no shortage of "holy f@#$%^&*(k!" coming from some folks ...








						'Genocide masterplan': Experts alarmed after Kremlin intellectual calls for 'cleansed' Ukraine
					

Ukrainian society must be “cleansed of Nazi elements,” a leading Russian intellectual wrote in an essay published on Sunday, as Ukrainian soldiers sifted through the gruesome aftermath of a slaughter of civilians in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha.




					news.yahoo.com
				











						Russia's genocide handbook
					

The evidence of atrocity and of intent mounts




					snyder.substack.com
				











						Zelenskyy on RIA Novosti article: One piece of evidence for a future tribunal
					

Kateryna Tyshchenko - Monday, 4 April 2022, 22:45




					www.pravda.com.ua
				



And this from the CBC


> An editorial in a prominent Kremlin media outlet appears to provide justification for the war with its call to erase the Ukrainian identity — language that geopolitical experts say is especially alarming after the discovery of dozens of dead civilians in a Kyiv suburb.
> 
> Written by Timofei Sergeitsev in RIA Novosti, the rhetoric in the editorial — entitled "What Russia should do with Ukraine" — is inflammatory, even by the usual Russian state media standards.
> 
> It claims the word "Ukraine" itself is synonymous with Nazism and cannot be allowed to exist.
> 
> "Denazification is inevitably also De-Ukrainianization,"  Sergeitsev writes, stating that the idea of Ukrainian culture and identity is fake.
> 
> A prominent scholar whose career has been spent studying historical genocide said he felt sickened by reading the article — but he was also convinced that the Kremlin is using it to justify atrocities in Ukraine to the Russian people and the military.
> 
> "It's just a clear, pretty laid-out template for what is going to happen," said Eugene Finkel, an associate professor at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. "This article crossed the line between talking and thinking about the invasion as some kind of collection of war crimes into something much more co-ordinated." ...


As always, I'm glad to be wrong and over-reacting, but it was pretty chilling reading for me from an official Russian outlet not known for sharing views for the sake of sharing a _diversity_ of views.


----------



## Czech_pivo

suffolkowner said:


> True. Russia had Crimea and half the Donbas at little cost, Putin was still a master strategist. Now Sweden and Finland are on the verge of NATO membership. Russia's military has been exposed in almost everyway possible and greatly degraded. They are stuck in a war that can be further expected to drain Russia of men, money and equipment with no possible positive outcome. NATO is energized and rearming. Europe is looking at alternative energy supplies. Russia is under heavy sanctions and its elites are losing their yachts and international. All the above forcing Russia if it continues on this path as a very junior partner to a China whos bargaining position has been greatly strengthened


It’s almost like someone has executed a plan to take Russia off the world stage, leaving only the US and China left to square off in the future.


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> Zelensky says world should prepare for Russia to use nuclear weapons
> 
> 
> Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday warned that the world should take seriously and prepare for the possibility that Russia could use nuclear weapons in its attack on Ukraine…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> thehill.com


Odesa wouldn’t surprise me…it could described as the source of the UKR missile attack on the Москва.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> *It’s almost like someone has executed a plan to take Russia off the world stage* ...


That _is_ part of more than just some Russian commentary about NATO's nefarious support of Ukraine.


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> The source is a link to a RUS "state owned media agency" (according to Wikipedia), so anyone who could access RIA Novosti could read it in Russia.  No idea on the hard-copy circulation details.  This outlet also published a UKR victory editorial 26 Feb before it was pulled (BBC link)
> 
> The translation is a Chrome translation, so it may not be perfect, but based on my experiences with other languages I know, it captures the tone.  Here's another translation done by "Ukrainian volunteers", so while it may not be completely unbiased, it gives the same vibe, tone & general details, so pick your poison, so to speak.
> 
> Also, there's been no shortage of "holy f@#$%^&*(k!" coming from some folks ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 'Genocide masterplan': Experts alarmed after Kremlin intellectual calls for 'cleansed' Ukraine
> 
> 
> Ukrainian society must be “cleansed of Nazi elements,” a leading Russian intellectual wrote in an essay published on Sunday, as Ukrainian soldiers sifted through the gruesome aftermath of a slaughter of civilians in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia's genocide handbook
> 
> 
> The evidence of atrocity and of intent mounts
> 
> 
> 
> 
> snyder.substack.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zelenskyy on RIA Novosti article: One piece of evidence for a future tribunal
> 
> 
> Kateryna Tyshchenko - Monday, 4 April 2022, 22:45
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.pravda.com.ua
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And this from the CBC
> 
> As always, I'm glad to be wrong and over-reacting, but it was pretty chilling reading for me from an official Russian outlet not known for sharing views for the sake of sharing a _diversity_ of views.




I know you don't over-react.  And I don't believe you are wrong. I just didn't trust my own source enough for categorical acceptance.

And WTF pretty much describes it.

To borrow a phrase from my kith and kin:  No Surrender!


----------



## MilEME09

Good2Golf said:


> Odesa wouldn’t surprise me…it could described as the source of the UKR missile attack on the Москва.


I agree, they will hit Ukraine deep, not in the Donbas, I am skeptical they will use tactical nukes in territory they want. I could be wrong though, one could hope then Ukraine gets better defense systems up, but even intercepting a nuke in mid air would be disastrous.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> I agree, they will hit Ukraine deep, not in the Donbas, I am skeptical they will use tactical nukes in territory they want. I could be wrong though, one could hope then Ukraine gets better defense systems up, but even intercepting a nuke in mid air would be disastrous.


Hitting Odesa would cause spill over into Transnistria (another illegitimate Russian acquisition) the rest of Moldova and Romania


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> but even intercepting a nuke in mid air would be disastrous.


As far as I know, nuclear weapons require a very specific detonation sequence and thus are only destroyed, not detonated by external explosions.

Unless I'm missing something?


----------



## MilEME09

TacticalTea said:


> As far as I know, nuclear weapons require a very specific detonation sequence and thus are only destroyed, not detonated by external explosions.
> 
> Unless I'm missing something?


If it doesn't detonate you would still create a dirty bomb by spreading the radioactive material over a large area


----------



## KevinB

TacticalTea said:


> As far as I know, nuclear weapons require a very specific detonation sequence and thus are only destroyed, not detonated by external explosions.
> 
> Unless I'm missing something?


Russian nuclear safety isn’t exactly up to Western Standards. 
   But generally hitting an incoming missile will result in either a fizzle (no secondary chain reaction), and/or spreading material from the warhead over a significant area.  








						nuclear weapon - Gun assembly, implosion, and boosting
					

In order to produce a nuclear explosion, subcritical masses of fissionable material must be rapidly assembled into a supercritical configuration. The simplest weapon design is the pure fission gun-assembly device, in which an explosive propellant is used to fire one subcritical mass down a “gun...



					www.britannica.com


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> If it doesn't detonate you would still create a dirty bomb by spreading the radioactive material over a large area


Right, yeah, that's all I had in mind. But I wouldn't imagine it would be comparable to a reactor meltdown would it?


----------



## Kirkhill

April 15 

Adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, Vadym Denysenko, says Russia’s statements on a possible nuclear strike, being spun to intimidate Ukraine, is yet another element of the ongoing information war.









						“Boogeyman stories” of nuclear attack element of Russia’s infowar - Ukraine official
					

Adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, Vadym Denysenko, says Russia’s statements on a possible nuclear strike, being spun to intimidate Ukraine, is yet another element of the ongoing information war. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Kirkhill

Russia has 65 battalion tactical groups in Ukraine – US defense official
					

The units of Russian troops that had left northern Ukraine began to appear in Donbas ahead of Russia's attempts to launch an offensive. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## KevinB

TacticalTea said:


> Right, yeah, that's all I had in mind. But I wouldn't imagine it would be comparable to a reactor meltdown would it?


Depends on the mass of the fissile material. 


Non US DoD look at the Russian Nuclear Arsenal 


			https://thebulletin.org/premium/2022-02/nuclear-notebook-how-many-nuclear-weapons-does-russia-have-in-2022/


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> Depends on the mass of the fissile material.
> 
> 
> Non US DoD look at the Russian Nuclear Arsenal
> 
> 
> https://thebulletin.org/premium/2022-02/nuclear-notebook-how-many-nuclear-weapons-does-russia-have-in-2022/


And, I would imagine, what nuclear material is used. I believe, for example, that U-235 in a passive state is relatively harmless, unless ingested/inhaled (alpha radiations only). Not an expert on this at all, though. Very much a layman's perspective.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:


> April 15
> 
> Adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, Vadym Denysenko, says Russia’s statements on a possible nuclear strike, being spun to intimidate Ukraine, is yet another element of the ongoing information war.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> “Boogeyman stories” of nuclear attack element of Russia’s infowar - Ukraine official
> 
> 
> Adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, Vadym Denysenko, says Russia’s statements on a possible nuclear strike, being spun to intimidate Ukraine, is yet another element of the ongoing information war. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net


Interesting - here's  a couple of stories from yesterday on the nuke threat, to help triangulate a bit ...








						Zelensky believes that Putin may use nuclear weapons in Ukraine
					

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told CNN on Friday that "all of the countries of the world" should be prepared for Russian President Vladimir Putin to use tactical nuclear weapons in a war against Ukraine.




					en.interfax.com.ua
				











						No signs that Russia can use nuclear weapons against Ukraine now – Defense Ministry
					

At the moment, Ukraine and its foreign partners do not see signs that Russia can use nuclear weapons against Ukraine, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Defense Ministry Oleksandr Motuzianyk has said.




					en.interfax.com.ua


----------



## The Bread Guy

I, for one, am VASTLY reassured to hear from RUS's info-machine this morning that _"Peaceful life is being established in the settlements liberated from the Ukrainian nationalists"_ ...


> In the course of a special military operation, during the advance of units of Russian troops in liberated settlements, with the support of local residents, peaceful life and the organization of daily life are being established.
> 
> Convoys of Russian units participating in a special military operation are advancing through these settlements. Combat service support units deliver the necessary goods to the designated areas. The security of the advance of units and the movement of convoys is carried out by attack helicopters of army aviation.
> 
> In the liberated settlements of the Kharkov region, humanitarian supplies are delivered to local residents, primary medical care is provided.
> 
> People with chronic diseases and in need of inpatient medical care are taken by Russian servicemen to specialized medical institutions.


----------



## Spencer100

Czech_pivo said:


> It’s almost like someone has executed a plan to take Russia off the world stage, leaving only the US and China left to square off in the future.


Yup!  If you are ever back in Windsor I will buy you a beer.


----------



## McG

For those who have asked, Russian ships in the Black Sea by class:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515310287393488899


----------



## MilEME09

McG said:


> For those who have asked, Russian ships in the Black Sea by class:
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515310287393488899


Likely not all of them are in the black sea, OSINT has only tracked about 5 major surface ships including the Moskva. Others may be stuck in the med, in refit, etc....


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514982316636004363

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515225940099534849


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> Interesting - here's  a couple of stories from yesterday on the nuke threat, to help triangulate a bit ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zelensky believes that Putin may use nuclear weapons in Ukraine
> 
> 
> Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told CNN on Friday that "all of the countries of the world" should be prepared for Russian President Vladimir Putin to use tactical nuclear weapons in a war against Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.interfax.com.ua
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> No signs that Russia can use nuclear weapons against Ukraine now – Defense Ministry
> 
> 
> At the moment, Ukraine and its foreign partners do not see signs that Russia can use nuclear weapons against Ukraine, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Defense Ministry Oleksandr Motuzianyk has said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.interfax.com.ua




Here's the reason I detest Headline Writers 



> when asked if he was worried Russian President Vladimir Putin might use a tactical nuclear weapon on Ukraine. “Not only me — I think all of the world, all the countries, have to be worried, because it can be not real information, but it can be truth,”



Vice



> *Zelensky says world should prepare for Russia to use nuclear weapons*​











						Zelensky says world should prepare for Russia to use nuclear weapons
					

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday warned that the world should take seriously and prepare for the possibility that Russia could use nuclear weapons in its attack on Ukraine…




					thehill.com
				






> “They could do it, for them the life of the people [means] nothing,” Zelensky said. “We should think, not be afraid, be ready. But that is not a question … only for Ukraine but for all the world, I think so.”





> “I think that the threat of nuclear war is a bluff. It’s one thing to be a murderer. It’s another to commit suicide. Every use of nuclear weapons means the end for all sides, not just for the person using them,”




Headline Writers and many journalists love the declarative, the absolute.  Certainty.

What Zelensky said in the interview, in the article, in the previous statement in March and what his spokesman reiterated after the interview was that he believes the threat to be a bluff, but he could be wrong.  It would be wise to be worried.   

I think that is a position shared by many on this site and elsewhere.

Meanwhile Zelensky is not taking counsel of his fears.  And is encouraging his countrymen likewise.


----------



## suffolkowner

Czech_pivo said:


> It’s almost like someone has executed a plan to take Russia off the world stage, leaving only the US and China left to square off in the future.


Biden remains a master strategist


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515023321603133446


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515248504708513793


----------



## Jarnhamar

Any idea what kind of casualties the sunk Russian warship suffered?


----------



## KevinB

Sank in 200’ (ish) of water. 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515096747944685568


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> Sank in 200’ (ish) of water.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515096747944685568


----------



## KevinB

Jarnhamar said:


> Any idea what kind of casualties the sunk Russian warship suffered?


52 of ~520 got rescued.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515262775488098307


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515342769119805444


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515258822113300485


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515278014136918022

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515278710655627267


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515312887899766787


----------



## suffolkowner

KevinB said:


> Sank in 200’ (ish) of water.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515096747944685568


If true to bad the Ukies couldn't recover them but im guessing that a Kilo is sitting right on top


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> If true to bad the Ukies couldn't recover them but im guessing that a Kilo is sitting right on top


Rumors are likely false as the Moskva did not carry ship to shore munitions. It did have anti ship missiles and torpedoes. Which could be nuclear armed. However Russian doctrine is to use those against aircraft carriers, given the type of operation  I doubt those would of been loaded. Ship was likely there as anti air defense for the Black Sea fleet.


----------



## MilEME09

Partisan activity increasing in occupied areas


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515354473299861507


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> Rumors are likely false as the Moskva did not carry ship to shore munitions. It did have anti ship missiles and torpedoes. Which could be nuclear armed. However Russian doctrine is to use those against aircraft carriers, given the type of operation  I doubt those would of been loaded. Ship was likely there as anti air defense for the Black Sea fleet.


The two sisters ships of Moskva are sitting in the eastern basin of the Med., deterrents to NATO’s Carrier TF’s, have to wonder if they’re carrying Nuc’s….


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515363702014361605


----------



## Kirkhill

McG said:


> For those who have asked, Russian ships in the Black Sea by class:
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515310287393488899


Further to McG's list (from Wiki and USNI)


StartTons (FL)m (Length)Moskva1​1976​11,490​186.4​16x LRSSM64x LRSAM40x SRSAMKrivak2​1970​3,575​123.5​4x ASuWM40x SRSAMGrisha6​1970​980​71.6​20x SRSAMTarantul5​1977​549​56​4x SSM4x ManPADSMinehunters9​Land AttackGrigorovich3​2010​4,000​124.8​8x Kalibr24xMRSAM8x ManPADSKilo6​1980​3,100​73.8​4x Kalibr8x ManPADSBuyan-M4​2004​949​75​8x Kalibr8x ManPADSBykov3​2014​1,700​94​Kalibr8x ManPADSLanding ShipstonstankstroopsAlligator3 (now 1?)1964​4,700​112.8​1000​20​425​Ropucha4 (now 2?)1960​4,080​112.5​500​10​340​Low Draft/SEStonstankstroopsDergach2​1987​1,000​66​8x SSM20x SRSAM16x ManPADSSerna2​1994​105​25.6​45​19​Ondatra5​1971​107​24.5​50​1​22​BK16/185​16.5​18​


From the Ukrainian stand point the key elements I believe would be 

the Long Range SAM capabilities of the Moskva (her SSMs were ancient anti-ship missiles)
from a comment made on a Russian TV channel captured on this thread it seems that the Russians were relying on the Moskva to supply early warning of any aerial attacks on the Crimea, Sevastopol and the Fleet.
apparently that flank is now exposed
shortly afterwards the Russians launched their Tu22s against Mariupol

the Kalibr equipped vessels (Kalibr having a 500 kg payload and a range of 50 to 2500 km depending on version)
those vessels have been pushed back into deeper water with the sinking of the Moskva but still present a land attack threat.

the Landing Ships (local movement of troops and supplies and possible assault)
the Berdyansk strike certainly took out one of the three Alligators and maybe two while also damaging two of the four Ropuchas.

The risk of an amphibious assault anywhere seems to be very low as a result and even the ability to support forces from the sea has been significantly reduced.

The other vessels are either minehunters, patrol craft or small landing craft with very limited offensive capability.


----------



## brihard

Kirkhill said:


> The risk of an amphibious assault anywhere seems to be very low as a result and even the ability to support forces from the sea has been significantly reduced.



I'd go simpler than that. What are the odds the Russians actually have any sizable force of Naval infantry in theatre not already committed to battle? I doesn't seem likely to me that they have enough of a reserve to make an amphibious threat meaningful, even presupposing most of them safely made it ashore. But yes- all the moreso with _Moskva_ having taken a dive, it seems that any such force would be horribly vulnerable to shore based ASM and air attack.


----------



## MilEME09

brihard said:


> I'd go simpler than that. What are the odds the Russians actually have any sizable force of Naval infantry in theatre not already committed to battle? I doesn't seem likely to me that they have enough of a reserve to make an amphibious threat meaningful, even presupposing most of them safely made it ashore. But yes- all the moreso with _Moskva_ having taken a dive, it seems that any such force would be horribly vulnerable to shore based ASM and air attack.


With reportedly 4 Ukrainian brigades defending Odessa, no landing would work now.  However with Russian forces present in Transnystria, Moldova, forces need to stay in order to keep those troops out of play. Otherwise some of those brigades could head for kherson.


----------



## Kirkhill

brihard said:


> I'd go simpler than that. What are the odds the Russians actually have any sizable force of Naval infantry in theatre not already committed to battle? I doesn't seem likely to me that they have enough of a reserve to make an amphibious threat meaningful, even presupposing most of them safely made it ashore. But yes- all the moreso with _Moskva_ having taken a dive, it seems that any such force would be horribly vulnerable to shore based ASM and air attack.



You're right.

Perhaps just as important is the reduction of the ability to supply logistical support from the sea in the Berdyansk Mariupol region and the reduction in the ability to extricate forces from Kherson by water.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

brihard said:


> I'd go simpler than that. What are the odds the Russians actually have any sizable force of Naval infantry in theatre not already committed to battle? I doesn't seem likely to me that they have enough of a reserve to make an amphibious threat meaningful, even presupposing most of them safely made it ashore. But yes- all the moreso with _Moskva_ having taken a dive, it seems that any such force would be horribly vulnerable to shore based ASM and air attack.


The only place I could see it maybe making sense would be here:



It's relatively scarcely populated, fairly defensible and more importantly, it could potentially provide a land bridge to Transnistria and also cut off a NATO resupply route.

The possibility it happens at this time is fairly remote.


----------



## brihard

I didn’t think of it in the context of Transnistria. Arguably might it make sense as a way to extract their forces there as opposed to reinforce them? It would seem to me that the Russian BTGs there could be better employed elsewhere, particularly given that they’re now effectively cut off from resupply or reinforcement. I’m actually surprised Ukr hasn’t hit them already.


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> The only place I could see it maybe making sense would be here:
> 
> View attachment 70128
> 
> It's relatively scarcely populated, fairly defensible and more importantly, it could potentially provide a land bridge to Transnistria and also cut off a NATO resupply route.
> 
> The possibility it happens at this time is fairly remote.



Didn't I see somewhere that the Ukrainians were holding an Air Assault Brigade in that region?

I agree with you that the possibility of a sea-borne landing there is fairly remote, especially given the loss of SBAD, the lack of lift, the lack of uncommitted troops and the presence of at least some sort of long range coastal defences.

The Transnistria question is how much of a threat are 2 BTGs?


----------



## Furniture

brihard said:


> I didn’t think of it in the context of Transnistria. Arguably might it make sense as a way to extract their forces there as opposed to reinforce them? It would seem to me that the Russian BTGs there could be better employed elsewhere, particularly given that they’re now effectively cut off from resupply or reinforcement. I’m actually surprised Ukr hasn’t hit them already.


I suspect Ukraine is being very careful to not make enemies. Transnistria is still officially part of Moldova, so attacking Moldova might not go over well in the neighbourhood.


----------



## McG

Moldova wants the Russian forces out. Maybe they would be open to a military collaboration with Ukraine.


----------



## suffolkowner

brihard said:


> I didn’t think of it in the context of Transnistria. Arguably might it make sense as a way to extract their forces there as opposed to reinforce them? It would seem to me that the Russian BTGs there could be better employed elsewhere, particularly given that they’re now effectively cut off from resupply or reinforcement. I’m actually surprised Ukr hasn’t hit them already.





Kirkhill said:


> Didn't I see somewhere that the Ukrainians were holding an Air Assault Brigade in that region?
> 
> I agree with you that the possibility of a sea-borne landing there is fairly remote, especially given the loss of SBAD, the lack of lift, the lack of uncommitted troops and the presence of at least some sort of long range coastal defences.
> 
> The Transnistria question is how much of a threat are 2 BTGs?





Furniture said:


> I suspect Ukraine is being very careful to not make enemies. Transnistria is still officially part of Moldova, so attacking Moldova might not go over well in the neighbourhood.



Almost think it would be a good time for Moldova and Ukraine to take the Transnistria influence off the board but realistically it is probably not important enough in the scheme of things. Just seems to me an easy win and then you don't have to worry about the knife at your back


----------



## brihard

Furniture said:


> I suspect Ukraine is being very careful to not make enemies. Transnistria is still officially part of Moldova, so attacking Moldova might not go over well in the neighbourhood.


Not talking about attacking Moldova. But maybe quietly get its permission to make Russian command elements of units illegally occupying its territory dead, with a concurrent info ops campaign to encourage desertion, defection, or asylum of Russian troops. At this point what can the Russians do?


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

brihard said:


> I didn’t think of it in the context of Transnistria. Arguably might it make sense as a way to extract their forces there as opposed to reinforce them? It would seem to me that the Russian BTGs there could be better employed elsewhere, particularly given that they’re now effectively cut off from resupply or reinforcement. I’m actually surprised Ukr hasn’t hit them already.


Well they have their BTGs there, but Transnistria, like all the other semi-autonomous regions also has their own Armed Forces:









						Armed Forces of Transnistria - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org
				




There is a solitary airfield in Izmail and there are only two ways on to the Peninsula:  the Bridge in Zatoka and the other route on E87 but you also have to cross in to Moldovan Territory.  

It's not out of the imagination that seizing this piece of territory would be that hard with a combined air and seaborne assault.


----------



## Kirkhill

McG said:


> Moldova wants the Russian forces out. Maybe they would be open to a military collaboration with Ukraine.



It's costing them nothing to wait and see how this all shakes out.


----------



## dapaterson

KevinB said:


> Sank in 200’ (ish) of water.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515096747944685568


Glomar Explorer enters the discussion.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Ukraine needs to be very careful still about spreading itself too thin.  Remember, the Belorussian Army is still entirely intact,  Transnistria has not done anything and a smaller incursion, even elsewhere, could tie up valuable forces and equipment from the Main Effort.


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Ukraine needs to be very careful still about spreading itself too thin.  Remember, the Belorussian Army is still entirely intact,  Transnistria has not done anything and a smaller incursion, even elsewhere, could tie up valuable forces and equipment from the Main Effort.


Should convince Moldova to go I'm with them, take out the Russian forces, so that's one less front to worry about


----------



## JLB50

Jarnhamar said:


> Any idea what kind of casualties the sunk Russian warship suffered?


Don’t think it’s been verified yet but I briefly heard earlier this morning on CNN or CTV that around 400 personnel may have been lost.  If so, that could agree with the 52 survivors reported previously, with the total crew being at around 450.  I wonder if the Kremlin will ever announce the true casualty list.


----------



## McG

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Ukraine needs to be very careful still about spreading itself too thin.  Remember, the Belorussian Army is still entirely intact,  Transnistria has not done anything and a smaller incursion, even elsewhere, could tie up valuable forces and equipment from the Main Effort.


This is true.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Transnistria



Avoid the unnecessary battle.


----------



## suffolkowner

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Ukraine needs to be very careful still about spreading itself too thin.  Remember, the Belorussian Army is still entirely intact,  Transnistria has not done anything and a smaller incursion, even elsewhere, could tie up valuable forces and equipment from the Main Effort.


I agree the Ukrainians have done a great job at surviving the first phase of this war but this second phase where they need to evict the Russians from the territory they have captured is going to be challenging. The Russians are concentrating their forces from Kharkiv to Crimea correcting one of their many mistakes from the original invasion plan. But they have to deal with Ukrainian counter attacks within their lines. Add in the fact that Russia has half the BTG's they started with depending on who you read and massive losses in their front line equipment and have run down their PGM and probably running their guided missiles down as well and the troops are their second tier and tired too


----------



## brihard

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Ukraine needs to be very careful still about spreading itself too thin.  Remember, the Belorussian Army is still entirely intact,  Transnistria has not done anything and a smaller incursion, even elsewhere, could tie up valuable forces and equipment from the Main Effort.


Yup. I’m not saying send in troops. Rather, Ukraine has to kee a reserve in Odessa in case Russia gets cute with its BTGs in Transdnistria. Some judicious use of strikes by UAV could potentially degrade that threat significantly, particularly given Russia’s inability to reinforce them. I’m thinking command elements, communications, and key logistical and engineering capabilities that they would need to go on the attack. Reduce their capabilities, decapitate leadership if possible, fix them through attrition, and Ukraine may be able to free up some of its reserves in Odessa to move east. Maybe, with a little bit of luck, Russia tries to send them support and loses more ships and/or aircraft.


----------



## Good2Golf

suffolkowner said:


> I agree the Ukrainians have done a great job at surviving the first phase of this war but this second phase where they need to evict the Russians from the territory they have captured is going to be challenging. The Russians are concentrating their forces from Kharkiv to Crimea correcting one of their many mistakes from the original invasion plan. But they have to deal with Ukrainian counter attacks within their lines. Add in the fact that Russia has half the BTG's they started with depending on who you read and massive losses in their front line equipment and have run down their PGM and probably running their guided missiles down as well and the troops are their second tier and tired too


A few Tu-22M3s ‘kissed’ by a Starstreak or two while they’re being misused as CAS, and we’ll really see how round 2 of Putin’s ‘not-war’ goes…


----------



## suffolkowner

Good2Golf said:


> A few Tu-22M3s ‘kissed’ by a Starstreak or two while they’re being misused as CAS, and we’ll really see how round 2 of Putin’s ‘not-war’ goes…


How far can Starstreak reach? The one twitter I read on the recent Tu-22 run guestimated that they were operating at 14,500m. Ukraine needs NATO to keep replacing their losses not just in tanks form the Czechs and Poles but they need those Soviet AD systems


----------



## MilEME09

Good2Golf said:


> A few Tu-22M3s ‘kissed’ by a Starstreak or two while they’re being misused as CAS, and we’ll really see how round 2 of Putin’s ‘not-war’ goes…


Or maybe Ukraine spends the $350 million and finishes the Slava cruiser they have almost complete in Mykolaiv. Load it up and go after the black sea fleet, reportedly the ship yards there are also building corvettes as well. Taking the black sea fleet out of the war would make western Ukraine a lot safer.


----------



## Good2Golf

suffolkowner said:


> How far can Starstreak reach? The one twitter I read on the recent Tu-22 run guestimated that they were operating at 14,500m. Ukraine needs NATO to keep replacing their losses not just in tanks form the Czechs and Poles but they need those Soviet AD systems


Open source says 5,000m ceiling.   Not sure if that’s the same kind of thing as the “8,000m”range of Hellfire…


----------



## McG

S300 or Patriot would give the Tu-22 a bad day. So would MiG fighters that can launch NATO AAM.


----------



## GR66

MilEME09 said:


> Or maybe Ukraine spends the $350 million and finishes the Slava cruiser they have almost complete in Mykolaiv. Load it up and go after the black sea fleet, reportedly the ship yards there are also building corvettes as well. Taking the black sea fleet out of the war would make western Ukraine a lot safer.


I don't think that just slapping a fresh coat of paint on an unfinished hull that's been tied up alongside for 30+ years and tossing in some extra electronics and weapons they have lying around is quite as simple as your comment makes it sound...especially at a dockyard that's in the middle of a war zone.  Even if supplied with some magic fairy dust to somehow make it happen I'm not sure how well a single, unsupported warship would fare against the entire Russian Black Sea Flotilla and their Air Force.


----------



## MilEME09

GR66 said:


> I don't think that just slapping a fresh coat of paint on an unfinished hull that's been tied up alongside for 30+ years and tossing in some extra electronics and weapons they have lying around is quite as simple as your comment makes it sound...especially at a dockyard that's in the middle of a war zone.  Even if supplied with some magic fairy dust to somehow make it happen I'm not sure how well a single, unsupported warship would fare against the entire Russian Black Sea Flotilla and their Air Force.


Said hull Ukraine has been spending millions to maintain each year. So while rough on the outside the interior may be in better shape. Not saying it's an easy job, again $350 million is the estimate to finish her, might take more.


----------



## suffolkowner

said ship sitting there looking unfinished and then popping up surprise with some active air defence would be nice


----------



## Jarnhamar

KevinB said:


> 52 of ~520 got rescued.



Damn. Well considering the effort Russia put into saving the crew of the Kursk those 52 are pretty lucky.


----------



## MilEME09

Good thread on how OSINT is nattlomg Russian misinformation 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515363257284014082


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> Good thread on how OSINT is nattlomg Russian misinformation
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515363257284014082


Team Vlad has some really crappy propaganda photoshoppers… 😆


----------



## armrdsoul77

dapaterson said:


> Glomar Explorer enters the discussion.


Elon Musk as the new Howard Hughes could claim an expedition to find new sources of rare earth minerals for rechargeable batteries.


----------



## armrdsoul77

Extensively upgraded Mig 21s capable of deploying russian and western weapons for Ukraine?
Romania Should Give The MiG-21 Lancers It Just Grounded To Ukraine


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

armrdsoul77 said:


> Elon Musk as the new Howard Hughes could claim an expedition to find new sources of rare earth minerals for rechargeable batteries.


I bloody love Elon Musk.  I used to be a doubter but the man continues to impress.  Watch the SpaceX documentary on Netflix, he comes off as a very impressive leader.


----------



## JLB50

MilEME09 said:


> Or maybe Ukraine spends the $350 million and finishes the Slava cruiser they have almost complete in Mykolaiv. Load it up and go after the black sea fleet, reportedly the ship yards there are also building corvettes as well. Taking the black sea fleet out of the war would make western Ukraine a lot safer.


Is the Slava‘s hull still intact?  I would have thought that it’s something the Russians would have destroyed early on like they did the Antonov 225, that is, unless perhaps they wanted to capture it and finish it off for their navy.


----------



## MilEME09

JLB50 said:


> Is the Slava‘s hull still intact?  I would have thought that it’s something the Russians would have destroyed early on like they did the Antonov 225, that is, unless perhaps they wanted to capture it and finish it off for their navy.


Russia has been trying to get it from Ukraine since 2001. Ukraine has been trying to also sell it, at one point Brazil was willing to buy it. They probably want to capture it intact so they can finish it them selves.


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> Russia has been trying to get it from Ukraine since 2001. Ukraine has been trying to also sell it, at one point Brazil was willing to buy it. They probably want to capture it intact so they can finish it them selves.


The Ukrainians should fit it out enough to drive it around the Black Sea…and name it the _UKV __иди нахуй…_


----------



## MilEME09

Good2Golf said:


> The Ukrainians should fit it out enough to drive it around the Black Sea…and name it the _UKV __иди нахуй…_











						Ukrainian cruiser Ukraina - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## suffolkowner

the Modern War Institute has a few articles on the Russia-Ukraine war









						On Killing Tanks - Modern War Institute
					

I would rather be the hammer than the anvil. — Erwin Rommel   Ever since modern tanks’ first appearance on the twentieth-century battlefield, infantry forces and their armored counterparts have been engaged in a sustained arms race with one another. Improvements in antitank weapons led to armor...




					mwi.usma.edu
				












						What Comes Next in Ukraine: Three Scenarios - Modern War Institute
					

With their defeat in the Battle of Kyiv, Russian forces have started to concentrate in the east and south of Ukraine to build upon their greater advances there. Too many commentators have overlooked the battles in the south where Moscow’s troops were more successful in taking territory. The...




					mwi.usma.edu
				












						Hearts Not Minds: Morale and Inspiration in Insurgency and Territorial Defense - Modern War Institute
					

Kharkiv, a largely Russian-speaking city of over one million people, is known for poetry and the arts. But over the past few weeks, as the northeastern Ukrainian city has faced the brunt of the Russian invasion, it has become one of many proud symbols of Ukrainian resistance. Facing a barrage of...




					mwi.usma.edu
				












						Dangerous Myths, Ukraine, and the Future of Great Power Competition - Modern War Institute
					

Editor’s note: This article introduces a full report based on a contemporary battlefield assessment conducted by the Modern War Institute. The authors of the report have led several such contemporary battlefield assessments—including to Sri Lanka (2016), the Republic of Georgia (2017), Colombia...




					mwi.usma.edu
				












						Wargaming a Long War: Ukraine Fights On - Modern War Institute
					

In the weeks prior to the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War, Marine Corps University hosted a four-day wargame to forecast the war’s course. That wargame proved remarkably prescient, accurately predicting almost all of Russia’s major combat movements in the first week of operations. As the war...




					mwi.usma.edu
				












						War Termination and Escalation in Ukraine - Modern War Institute
					

The war in Ukraine is widely described as a stalemate at this point. This is true from the perspective of limited movement of bodies of troops, but not necessarily an accurate understanding of the situation more broadly. The problem is that much of the discussion has relied on a series of...




					mwi.usma.edu


----------



## Kirkhill

Life in the Ukrainian Army


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u53gtn


----------



## Kirkhill

And one for the Zipperheads.  Gunners!  With the two guys in the rear, the rammer and the racks of rounds behind them I am going to assume that this is an SPH rather than a tank.  I think Russian tanks all have auto-loaders.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u55sdn


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u53ini


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u4wyxs


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u4vhr6

They know how to run a propaganda war!  Slava Ukraini!


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u52yz4


----------



## Kirkhill

OK.  Now this one is interesting if true! 

Russian TV proposing that the Army has done its job in Ukraine.  It is time to withdraw.

Let the Ukrainians denazify themselves.....


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u57sbk


----------



## suffolkowner

Kirkhill said:


> And one for the Zipperheads.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u55sdn


what is the actual Ukrainian meaning for calling Russians Orcs? Or are they actually calling them orcs?


----------



## Kat Stevens

Kirkhill said:


> OK.  Now this one is interesting if true!
> 
> Russian TV proposing that the Army has done its job in Ukraine.  It is time to withdraw.
> 
> Let the Ukrainians denazify themselves.....
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u57sbk


There's a precedent, it worked for the US in the middle east, declare victory and go home.


----------



## KevinB

Jarnhamar said:


> Damn. Well considering the effort Russia put into saving the crew of the Kursk those 52 are pretty lucky.


Turkish ‘Fishing Vessel’ rescued them.  
    I suspect the rescued sailors are being repatriated after some random questions by the Turkish ‘Fishermen’


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u52yz4


Look at it this way, an estimated 65 BTGs are operating in Ukraine still. Meaning 1/3 are in the Izyum area. If Ukraine defeats that force, Russia will not have the combat power to go on the offensive again.


----------



## The Bread Guy

RUS:  Can't call _us_ Nazis (screen capture from the Kremlin info-machine) ...


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> Look at it this way, an estimated 65 BTGs are operating in Ukraine still. Meaning 1/3 are in the Izyum area. If Ukraine defeats that force, Russia will not have the combat power to go on the offensive again.


I view it the same way unfortunately the Ukrainians may have to make the hard choice as to where to counter attack leaving some to fight on their own in isolation much as Mariupol has had too


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> The only place I could see it maybe making sense would be here:
> 
> View attachment 70128
> 
> It's relatively scarcely populated, fairly defensible and more importantly, it could potentially provide a land bridge to Transnistria and also cut off a NATO resupply route.
> 
> The possibility it happens at this time is fairly remote.


Is there a workable dockyard? Resupply here would be very difficult, the Ukrainians might just be picking off the shipping one by one.


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u53gtn


If a pig can sniff out buried truffles, it should be able to find buried AT/AP mines just fine.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Brad Sallows said:


> Avoid the unnecessary battle.


It’s like 2 battalions of man, with ancient equipment and low training. Something like 75% of the enlisted are locals. I’d not put too much stock in them. 
The massive, massive ammo dump is under 1km from the Ukrainian border, these troops will be tied to this dump. They can’t afford to lose it to the Ukrainians.


----------



## Kirkhill

suffolkowner said:


> what is the actual Ukrainian meaning for calling Russians Orcs? Or are they actually calling them orcs?


Apparently they are actually calling them Orcs.  They're Tolkien fans.


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u52yz4



I believe that this dispatch is related.



> In the Izium direction, Russian occupiers are attempting to maintain the captured frontiers and positions near such settlements as Sukha Kamianka, Sulyhivka, Brazhkivka, Mala Komyshuvakha and Andriivka.
> 
> The enemy is trying to improve the tactical situation. During the day, Russian troops attempted to conduct offensive and assault operations and advance deep into the village Dovhenke. The enemy failed and suffered significant losses. To strengthen the group in this direction, the units of the 106th Airborne Division were deployed from the territory of Russia.
> 
> After creating an assault group and setting up reserves, the enemy will attempt to resume an offensive in the direction of Barvinkove and Sloviansk.











						General Staff on situation across all directions: Active hostilities, Russians regroup and suffer losses
					

Military commissariats of the Central Military District of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are encouraging conscripts, who are in reserve, to sign short-term contracts for a period of three months to one year. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> I view it the same way unfortunately the Ukrainians may have to make the hard choice as to where to counter attack leaving some to fight on their own in isolation much as Mariupol has had too


Depends how it goes, as well as if Ukraine threatens Kherson soon. If Kherson is liberated, Russia will need to adjust its already thin forces. Weather conditions are poor over the next weekin Izyum, heavy rain for atleast 5 days. Russian mechanized forces will be bogged down, forced to use roads and be prime targets for Ukrainian infantry.


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515412789698912266Can’t lose a war if you run home and declare victory.


----------



## Gunnar

suffolkowner said:


> what is the actual Ukrainian meaning for calling Russians Orcs? Or are they actually calling them orcs?


They actually are.  I’ve seen it in more than one place.  As a descriptor for marauding killers who rape, loot and kill at the behest of an evil empire, it’s not a bad description. Apparently Tolkien is big there.  The movies really brought him to the world tho..

I was kinda hoping for more referents when I heard about the town of Rohan, but I guess its a bridge too far...


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> And one for the Zipperheads.  Gunners!  With the two guys in the rear, the rammer and the racks of rounds behind them I am going to assume that this is an SPH rather than a tank.  I think Russian tanks all have auto-loaders.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u55sdn


Pretty sure this is what we're looking at.  The young lady is the Gunner.









						2S1 Gvozdika - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## dapaterson

Economic sanctions apparently work.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515446146751098880


----------



## OldSolduer

Gunnar said:


> They actually are.  I’ve seen it in more than one place.  As a descriptor for marauding killers who rape, loot and kill at the behest of an evil empire, it’s not a bad description. Apparently Tolkien is big there.  The movies really brought him to the world tho..
> 
> I was kinda hoping for more referents when I heard about the town of Rohan, but I guess its a bridge too far...


Well played sir, well played. I see orcs, trolls and ogres every day at work. I will give them one thing - they are tough.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Remember this guy?


The Bread Guy said:


> "Hint hint" from Donetsk rebel spokesperson earlier today (via Indian media)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> DPR Militia hints at possible use of chemical weapons in Mariupol's Azovstal steel plant
> 
> 
> The Deputy head of Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) Militia hinted at the use of chemical weapons usage in Mariupol's Azovstal Steel Plant.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.republicworld.com


Intriguing, this, if true ....








						Ukrainian intelligence: FSB arrested war criminal "DPR" Basurin for disclosing data on a chemical attack
					

Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense (GUR) reported that FSB officers detained Kremlin "DPR" warlord Eduard Basurin for disclosing plans for the use of chemical weapons by Russian forces in Mariupol. “It was established that after talking with the FSB officers...




					olgalautman.substack.com
				











						Ukrainian Intelligence: spokesman of DPR Defense Ministry has been detained by Russian security services
					

The spokesman of the Defense Ministry of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), Eduard Basurin, has been detained by Russian military. Russian security services began reprisals against commanders in the occupied Donbas because of unsuccessful "special military operation". Eduard Basurin...




					uawire.org
				











						FSB abduct Russian proxy leader who ‘let slip Russia’s plans for chemical attack on Mariupol’ – Ukraine intel
					

Russia’s Federal Security Service, or FSB, the successor of the KGB, has abducted Eduard Basurin, one of the leaders of the Kremlin’s proxy forces in occupied Donetsk Oblast, the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry reported on April 16.




					english.nv.ua


----------



## OldSolduer

The Bread Guy said:


> Remember this guy?
> 
> Intriguing, this, if true ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian intelligence: FSB arrested war criminal "DPR" Basurin for disclosing data on a chemical attack
> 
> 
> Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense (GUR) reported that FSB officers detained Kremlin "DPR" warlord Eduard Basurin for disclosing plans for the use of chemical weapons by Russian forces in Mariupol. “It was established that after talking with the FSB officers...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> olgalautman.substack.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian Intelligence: spokesman of DPR Defense Ministry has been detained by Russian security services
> 
> 
> The spokesman of the Defense Ministry of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), Eduard Basurin, has been detained by Russian military. Russian security services began reprisals against commanders in the occupied Donbas because of unsuccessful "special military operation". Eduard Basurin...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> uawire.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> FSB abduct Russian proxy leader who ‘let slip Russia’s plans for chemical attack on Mariupol’ – Ukraine intel
> 
> 
> Russia’s Federal Security Service, or FSB, the successor of the KGB, has abducted Eduard Basurin, one of the leaders of the Kremlin’s proxy forces in occupied Donetsk Oblast, the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry reported on April 16.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> english.nv.ua


Hello Comrade Oligarch - it seems you have big mouth - loose lips sink ships Comrade....we are here to have little....chat with you.


----------



## Kilted

Gunnar said:


> They actually are.  I’ve seen it in more than one place.  As a descriptor for marauding killers who rape, loot and kill at the behest of an evil empire, it’s not a bad description. Apparently Tolkien is big there.  The movies really brought him to the world tho..
> 
> I was kinda hoping for more referents when I heard about the town of Rohan, but I guess its a bridge too far...


I don't think that I would want to talk about Rohan, I'm not sure that too many LOTR memes would be very pleasant towards us.


----------



## The Bread Guy

OldSolduer said:


> Hello Comrade Oligarch - it seems you have big mouth - loose lips sink ships Comrade....we are here to have little....chat with you.


Sure wouldn't wanna be him, for sure ....

Further for the record, here's a Google translation link to the slightly longer RIA Novosti article ....








						Басурин: "выманить кротов" и взять "Азовсталь" помогут химические войска
					

Представитель Народной милиции ДНР Эдуард Басурин в эфире Первого канала рассказал о планах взятия завода "Азовсталь" в Мариуполе. Он отметил, что в штурме... Радио Sputnik, 11.04.2022




					radiosputnik-ria-ru.translate.goog
				



... as well as an archived link to the original in Russian, just in case, IDK, the live link stops working for some reason


----------



## Skysix

"Escalation dominance rests with NATO and the West. We should take advantage of it"

Requires politicians with balls to act on the moral high ground and who are not scared of losing an election


----------



## Fishbone Jones

MilEME09 said:


> Good thread on how OSINT is nattlomg Russian misinformation
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515363257284014082


Those are airsofters. Look at the guy in front.😁


----------



## Kirkhill

Another BTG gone in the last 24 hours.



> In Donetsk and Luhansk regions, ten enemy attacks, fifteen tanks, twenty-four armored units and ten vehicles, as well as three enemy artillery systems have been repulsed over the past 24 hours.











						Russia continues to move its army units to Ukraine - General Staff
					

Russia continues to move its army units to the territory of Ukraine from Kursk, Bryansk and Voronezh regions, according to the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> Another BTG gone in the last 24 hours.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia continues to move its army units to Ukraine - General Staff
> 
> 
> Russia continues to move its army units to the territory of Ukraine from Kursk, Bryansk and Voronezh regions, according to the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net


1.5 BTG actually(atleast of tanks),  here's a info graphic on the kit of a BTG.


----------



## The Bread Guy

A factoid (caveat emptor, as usual) from the RUS info-machine in this morning's daily brief (safe PDF of official English version attached)


> ... Since the start of the special military operation, the Kiev nationalist regime has brought 6,824 foreign mercenaries from 63 countries to Ukraine.  The largest group came from Poland - 1,717 people. About 1,500 mercenaries came from the US, Canada and also Romania. From the UK and Georgia, each up to 300 people.  193 people arrived from Turkish-controlled areas of the Syrian Arab Republic.  The majority of the mercenaries are now deployed in Ukrainian groups in Kiev, Kharkov, Odessa, Nikolaev and Mariupol. Their deployment in the groups is handled by the "regional coordination headquarters" of the  so-called "International Legion of Defence of Ukraine" in Belaya Tserkov city.  As a result of the hostilities, the number of mercenaries has steadily declined and currently stands at 4,877.  Russian armed forces have eliminated 1,035 foreign mercenaries in combat operations. Another 912 mercenaries refused to take part in the hostilities and escaped from the country ...


Grain of salt not included ...


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> Movement of columns of Russian troops in Ukraine, Kharkiv region
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The work of Russian electronic warfare systems in Ukraine. The video shows the Murmansk-BN electronic warfare system and the Krasukha-4 electronic warfare system. The company commander spoke about the use of the Krasukha-4 electronic warfare system in Ukraine. "The complex has proven itself very well, works flawlessly in all weather conditions. Our main task is to cover the grouping of troops from radar reconnaissance and targeted enemy air strikes. During the operation, 12 Bayraktar complexes were discovered, we suppressed them and the complexes could not make a targeted strike on our groups."


@Soldier35, these are great updates. Any chance you could get your Russian colleague, _Sailor35_, to give us an update on how the Russian Federation Navy is doing in the Black Sea?

Thanks in advance.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> @Soldier35, these are great updates. Any chance you could get your Russian colleague, _Sailor35_, to give us an update on how the Russian Federation Navy is doing in the Black Sea?


DARE ya to do a satire Twitter feed for @Sailor35 a la this guy  

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515670408577658895


----------



## MilEME09

Looks like for Ukraine, the only acceptable outcome is complete Russian withdrawal 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515692711545823233


----------



## The Bread Guy

Loadsa narrative about Mariupol out there lately - including the attached RUS MoD special statement (safe PDF, official English version) from late yesterday - an excerpt ...


> During April 16, 2022, there was a sharp increase in the intensity of radio communications by nationalist militants and foreign mercenaries blocked in Mariupol at Azovstal steel plant. At the same time, the content of radio intercepts (367 were received in the past 24 hours alone) shows that the resisting fighters are in a
> desperate situation, practically without food and water. They insist that the official authorities in Kiev allow them to lay down their arms and surrender. However, the Ukrainian authorities categorically forbid this and  threaten to carry out further executions under "wartime" conditions.
> 
> In accordance with persistent humanitarian initiatives by France, Germany and Turkey, and for purely humanitarian purposes, the Russian Armed Forces have repeatedly offered the militants to lay down their arms and withdraw from Mariupol to Kiev-controlled territory. To this end, since March 21, 2022, a humanitarian corridor has been opened daily from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m.; from April 5, 2022, such corridors open daily, but around the clock ...


Also, one guy's take (Azov's founder) on why Mariupol's going how it's going (UKR media link) ...


> ... The ‘swift’ surrender of Kherson made the situation dire as Kyiv did not expect the enemy to seep into the rear of the Ukrainian forces, said Azov battalion leader, arguing the pre-war predictions did not see it to become a ‘full-scale’ war.  ‘They [Ukrainian authorities] may not have believed until the end that there would be a full-scale war. The besiege of Mariupol was considered impossible. Ukrainian troops are standing. The [defense] line has not been broken anywhere. Perhaps they [Ukrainian authorities] did not expect that there would be such a quick surrender of Kherson and Russian troops would move from Crimea to Berdyansk and Mariupol. It was planned that Mariupol would be one of the main outposts on the front line, but it was not planned that it would be besieged’, the commander said ...


... and another's (UKR Prez) on why Team USSR 2.0 isn't letting folks out (UKR media link)








						"Erdogan was the mediator personally": Zelenskyy told how Russia disrupted the evacuation from Mariupol
					

The head of state does not trust the negotiators regarding the city.




					tsn.ua


----------



## ueo

The Bread Guy said:


> DARE ya to do a satire Twitter feed for @Sailor35 a la this guy
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515670408577658895


Speaking of Rus propaganda etc, a while back Vlad's boys announced a successful space shot by one of their sats that destroyed another of theirs. BS or a real test? If BS, ignore this. if a verified shot what are the possible ramifications? With the worlds reliance on sat sys we could be in deep sh*t if the Vladster  decides to "verticalize" his battle space.


----------



## Kirkhill

ueo said:


> Speaking of Rus propaganda etc, a while back Vlad's boys announced a successful space shot by one of their sats that destroyed another of theirs. BS or a real test? If BS, ignore this. if a verified shot what are the possible ramifications? With the worlds reliance on sat sys we could be in deep sh*t if the Vladster  decides to "verticalize" his battle space.



4852.  The number of operational satellites of all nations currently in orbit. 









						UCS Satellite Database
					

In-depth details on the 4,852 satellites currently orbiting Earth, including their country of origin, purpose, and other operational details.




					www.ucsusa.org
				






> 19,000.  The total number of satellites of all nations currently in orbit.  Also the total number of potential targets for the Russians.



I don't believe the Russians, who have only demonstrated the ability to create prototypes of modified 1970s technologies and no ability to generate mass production of new technologies, have the ability to generate a fleet of Anti-Satellite Missiles sufficient to overwhelm the deployed numbers AND keep ahead of the international capability to deploy new swarms of micro-satellites.



			https://geospatialmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/satellite-large.gif


----------



## MilEME09

Conditions look like a muddy spring in wainwright


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515713830801838081


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

I know there are more then a few folks not happy we allow Soldier35 to post here but I'd like to thank him for the morning giggles.....


----------



## Good2Golf

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> I know there are more then a few folks not happy we allow Soldier35 to post here but I'd like to thank him for the morning giggles.....


…if only his Pravda-mates Sailor35 and Aviator35 would drop by, for the combined arms team effort… 🚜🚀🚁


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> …if only his Pravda-mates Sailor35 and Aviator35 would drop by, for the combined arms team effort… 🚜🚀🚁


Let's not forget @CombatSupporter35 - even their info-machine gives them a shout-out


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> Let's not forget @CombatSupporter35 - even their info-machine gives them a shout-out


Well we know Logistics35 doesn't exist


----------



## Czech_pivo

Good2Golf said:


> …if only his Pravda-mates Sailor35 and Aviator35 would drop by, for the combined arms team effort… 🚜🚀🚁


I look forward to hearing from FSB35/NKVD35.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Occupation and subversion teams, carry on! (UKR MoD info-machine)


> ... Due to lack of human resources, the russian invaders are trying to involve locals in the temporarily occupied territories. Thus, in the city of Izyum, the forced mobilization of men has begun.  Preparations for an illegal referendum on the proclamation of the so-called "Kherson People's Republic" continue in some territories temporarily occupied by the russian occupiers. To falsify its results, it is planned to use personal data of residents of the region, which are collected by the russian occupiers during the issuance of so-called "humanitarian aid". Residents are also spreading information that after the announcement of the results of the pseudo-referendum, their "mobilization" into the armed forces of the russian federation will begin ...


According to UKR media, they've been trying since mid-March ...








						Following 2014 playbook, Russia is desperately trying to organize sham 'referendum' for 'people's republic' in Kherson, which is and will always be Ukraine – Kuleba
					

According to the 2014 playbook, Russia is desperately trying to hold a fake "referendum" for the "people's republic" in Kherson, if these plans are implemented, tough sanctions should be imposed against Russia, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has said.




					en.interfax.com.ua


----------



## brihard

Potentially interesting development outside of Kharkiv- Ukrainin officials claiming a counterattack east that threatens Russian LoC IVO Belgorod / Izyum.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515755847082819591


----------



## MilEME09

brihard said:


> Potentially interesting development outside of Kharkiv- Ukrainin officials claiming a counterattack east that threatens Russian LoC IVO Belgorod / Izyum.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515755847082819591


Confirmed via Kyiv independent as well


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515764213893017610

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515748759115898888


----------



## brihard

I'll eagerly await seeing this develop for a day or two, and then the informed analyses either from some of our SMEs here in house, or externally. Could this be the Ukrainians having let the Russians extend themselves and get highly dependent on a particular LOC, with the specific intend of then hamstringing them?


----------



## MilEME09

Last stand in Mariupol 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515785362869784590


----------



## Kirkhill

brihard said:


> Potentially interesting development outside of Kharkiv- Ukrainin officials claiming a counterattack east that threatens Russian LoC IVO Belgorod / Izyum.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515755847082819591



8 April









						Satellite images show 13-kilometer-long Russian military convoy moving towards Kharkiv
					

Satellite images collected and analyzed by private US company Maxar Technologies showed a long Russian military convoy moving through the Ukrainian town of Velykyi Burluk towards Kharkiv. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				






> The images show a 13-kilometer-long military convoy moving south through the town of Velykyi Burluk in eastern Ukraine on April 8.



10 April


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u0x075



> 8 Mile Russian Army Convey Heading To Kharkiv Destroyed, 2000 Russian Soldiers Reported Dead



14 April









						Ukrainian forces blew up bridge with convoy of Russian military equipment heading to Izium
					

The Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed a bridge with a convoy of Russian military equipment heading to the city of Izium, Kharkiv region. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				






> “A few days ago, our soldiers discovered enemy equipment in Kharkiv region. These were the armored vehicle Tigr, Kamaz and the three Ural, which were moving to strengthen their forces in Kharkiv region. Having established the route of the enemy convoy, the special operation forces of Ukraine carried out a reconnaissance of the object that was most suitable for conducting an engineering ambush. It was a bridge on the way of enemy vehicles,” the General Staff said.



16 April









						General Staff on situation across all directions: Active hostilities, Russians regroup and suffer losses
					

Military commissariats of the Central Military District of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are encouraging conscripts, who are in reserve, to sign short-term contracts for a period of three months to one year. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				






> In the Izium direction, Russian occupiers are attempting to maintain the captured frontiers and positions near such settlements as Sukha Kamianka, Sulyhivka, Brazhkivka, Mala Komyshuvakha and Andriivka.
> 
> The enemy is trying to improve the tactical situation. During the day, Russian troops attempted to conduct offensive and assault operations and advance deep into the village Dovhenke. The enemy failed and suffered significant losses. To strengthen the group in this direction, the units of the 106th Airborne Division were deployed from the territory of Russia.
> 
> After creating an assault group and setting up reserves, the enemy will attempt to resume an offensive in the direction of Barvinkove and Sloviansk.
> 
> In the Donetsk and Tavriiskyi directions, Russian invaders are trying to fire and conduct assault operations in most areas. The enemy strengthened the grouping of troops by moving the separate units of the Central Military District from Belgorod Region to Svatove.
> 
> Russian invaders are likely to continue storming the contact line in Donetsk Region and Luhansk Region. The enemy will focus efforts on capturing such settlements as Popasna, Rubizhne, Mariupol, as well as advancing towards Vuhledar and Marinka. Russian troops will make preparations for an offensive in the Kurakhove and Avdiivka directions.







The Russians have been trying to get out of the valley at Izyum for almost a month now.  They have had difficulty moving units and support up from Belgorod.  They have not dominated the ground south of Velykyi Burluk and east of Kharkiv.  They have been losing convoys en route and Battle Groups in the effort to drive out of the valley.  The latest was the loss of a BTG worth of gear in the Synychyne pontoon crossing area yesterday.

Concurrent with yesterday's losses, and 4 days after reports of a bridge  on a supply route being blown, the Ukrainians report a Russian shift eastward towards Svatove and the Ukrainians start pushing eastward out of Kharkiv.

If the Russians are moving their effort eastward it could mean a few things:

1.  They are more insecure about moving troops and supplies through the Kharkiv Region
2.  They are giving up on the effort to outflank the Ukrainians through Izyum
3.  They are redirecting eastward through Svatove to hammer on the Ukrainian hinge in the Lysychansk Salient (Rubizhne-Popasna)
4.  They are redirecting eastward to go onto the defensive behind the existing Line of Control and try to hang on to Luhansk and Donetsk

5. Would be, increase the effort against Mariupol to clear it in time to get troops polished up for a May 9th parade in Moscow declaring victory by taking the Azov Regiment off the boards.


----------



## AlexanderM

__





						Ukrainian Troops Reportedly Fired A Captured Russian Rocket Launcher ... Back At The Russians
					





					www.msn.com
				




Thermobaric launcher.


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> Confirmed via Kyiv independent as well
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515764213893017610
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515748759115898888



Further indirect confirmation from Ukrinform -  the official central source









						Ukrainian Armed Forces pushing back enemy from Kharkiv
					

Any attempts by Russian forces to seize Kharkiv city will only lead to even greater losses among the invaders, Head of the Kharkiv Regional Military Administration Oleh Syniehubov has said. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				






> Ukrainian defenders are conducting several successful operations in the region, pushing back Russian forces from the regional center.


----------



## Kirkhill

In occupied areas, locals losing any illusions about Russia - Ukraine official
					

In the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, residents are beginning to lose any illusions they might have had about Russia. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Remius

Kirkhill said:


> In occupied areas, locals losing any illusions about Russia - Ukraine official
> 
> 
> In the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, residents are beginning to lose any illusions they might have had about Russia. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net


I heard a similar story on the news.  Disillusionment with Russia in those areas.


----------



## Skysix

How far can the current generation of air droppable GPS guided self steering cargo pallets fly in reality?

Wondering if a JPADS HAHO from just outside the 3 mile limit (with favourable winds) could resupply AZOV with AT and other munitions or whatever they need.

Not sure on the geography/weather or distance that would be, but allegedly system is capable of 25 mile flights  with 500#, 2,400# or 10,000# packages when dropped from 45,000 feet.

Rig them with enough explosives and a command detonated self destruct capability in case they land in occupied territory or cannot be retrieved in order to prevent Russian capture. (And maybe take a bunch out if they try)


----------



## Zipperhead99

Some analysis from the Jamestown Foundation:









						Russia Involving Transnistria in Ukrainian War, Raising Stakes for All Parties - Jamestown
					

Transnistria, the breakaway Slavic-majority region in Moldova, usually attracts attention only when Moscow seeks to use to limit Moldovan moves toward unification with Romania or membership in European institutions. At times, analysts also point to it as an illustrative model for Russian...




					jamestown.org
				












						Russia’s Quick Victory Vanishes, as Protracted War Looks Inevitable - Jamestown
					

Russia has revised its war plan multiple times during the, so far, seven-week-long, ill-conceived large-scale invasion of Ukraine, yet it still remains incompatible with both tactical imperatives and political ambitions. The consecutive revisions themselves have been flawed in different ways: if...




					jamestown.org
				












						Lessons of Ukraine Raise Doubts about PLA Modernization - Jamestown
					

Introduction In late 2021, ships from China’s North Sea Fleet conducted “Maritime Joint-2021” (海上联合-2021, Haishang lianhe-2021) with the Russian Pacific fleet, which was a joint naval exercise focused on securing sea lanes of communication. Not only did the exercise, “demonstrate the resolve of...




					jamestown.org


----------



## suffolkowner

Zipperhead99 said:


> Some analysis from the Jamestown Foundation:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia Involving Transnistria in Ukrainian War, Raising Stakes for All Parties - Jamestown
> 
> 
> Transnistria, the breakaway Slavic-majority region in Moldova, usually attracts attention only when Moscow seeks to use to limit Moldovan moves toward unification with Romania or membership in European institutions. At times, analysts also point to it as an illustrative model for Russian...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> jamestown.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia’s Quick Victory Vanishes, as Protracted War Looks Inevitable - Jamestown
> 
> 
> Russia has revised its war plan multiple times during the, so far, seven-week-long, ill-conceived large-scale invasion of Ukraine, yet it still remains incompatible with both tactical imperatives and political ambitions. The consecutive revisions themselves have been flawed in different ways: if...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> jamestown.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Lessons of Ukraine Raise Doubts about PLA Modernization - Jamestown
> 
> 
> Introduction In late 2021, ships from China’s North Sea Fleet conducted “Maritime Joint-2021” (海上联合-2021, Haishang lianhe-2021) with the Russian Pacific fleet, which was a joint naval exercise focused on securing sea lanes of communication. Not only did the exercise, “demonstrate the resolve of...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> jamestown.org


sometimes I think everyone just reads this site and reposts it as there own


----------



## Kirkhill

Lessons of Ukraine Raise Doubts about PLA Modernization - Jamestown
					

Introduction In late 2021, ships from China’s North Sea Fleet conducted “Maritime Joint-2021” (海上联合-2021, Haishang lianhe-2021) with the Russian Pacific fleet, which was a joint naval exercise focused on securing sea lanes of communication. Not only did the exercise, “demonstrate the resolve of...




					jamestown.org
				






> *Readiness or Red-ness*
> 
> This discussion only scratches the surface of what might keep a PLA planner up at night. The emphasis on “red culture” and “red genes”—burnishing the origin mythos of the CCP and PLA—permeates all levels of society, but particularly the military. Devoting such energy to political education hints at the insecurity President Xi Jinping feels about *the ideological purity of the armed forces*, and by implication, their will to fight in an actual conflict. Early last month, during the “Two Sessions” period, when the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Consultative Conference met, *the PLA imposed mandatory study sessions at all levels, which occupied valuable training time* (81.cn, March 21). Russian troops have shown pervasive morale and unit cohesion problems, which the CCP must recognize as a military lacking in ideological quality. Perhaps this will lead to doubling down on political education within the PLA, not only further eroding substantive training priorities, but also suggesting that the average “G.I. Zhou” may lack a compelling reason to fight.



Thankfully there are no equivalent struggle sessions in the US or Canadian Armies.....


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> Lessons of Ukraine Raise Doubts about PLA Modernization - Jamestown
> 
> 
> Introduction In late 2021, ships from China’s North Sea Fleet conducted “Maritime Joint-2021” (海上联合-2021, Haishang lianhe-2021) with the Russian Pacific fleet, which was a joint naval exercise focused on securing sea lanes of communication. Not only did the exercise, “demonstrate the resolve of...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> jamestown.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Thankfully there are no equivalent struggle sessions in the US or Canadian Armies.....


Nah, just the ongoing Evangelical VS everyone else culture in all branches. Promoted by the Academies and brass. Worst in the Air Force


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515249311357022208


----------



## NavyShooter

Apparently a picture of the Moskova.


----------



## Halifax Tar

NavyShooter said:


> Apparently a picture of the Moskova.
> 
> View attachment 70161



Defiantly looks like the same class... I can make out the missile launchers through the smoke on the fwd end.

Possible impact against the hull in line with the hanger ?  Def something went a rye around the stacks it seems.


----------



## MilEME09

NavyShooter said:


> Apparently a picture of the Moskova.
> 
> View attachment 70161


If you look closely there are two holes at the waterline below the superstructure in the smoke


----------



## WLSC

Good2Golf said:


> …if only his Pravda-mates Sailor35 and Aviator35 would drop by, for the combined arms team effort… 🚜🚀🚁


I would like to see their receiving hand perspective 🤓🤣


----------



## AlexanderM

Slightly different angle of Moskva.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515821259225022466


----------



## KevinB

Skysix said:


> How far can the current generation of air droppable GPS guided self steering cargo pallets fly in reality?
> 
> Wondering if a JPADS HAHO from just outside the 3 mile limit (with favourable winds) could resupply AZOV with AT and other munitions or whatever they need.


Closest I can work a drop zone is 290.6km in the Black Sea international airspace outside Russian TW.
  Which would be a NATO AC dropping material through Russia -- not going to fly.

Over Ukrainian held terrain I can get 207.3km - but again that won't fly 




Skysix said:


> Not sure on the geography/weather or distance that would be, but allegedly system is capable of 25 mile flights  with 500#, 2,400# or 10,000# packages when dropped from 45,000 feet.


They can go further.


Skysix said:


> Rig them with enough explosives and a command detonated self destruct capability in case they land in occupied territory or cannot be retrieved in order to prevent Russian capture. (And maybe take a bunch out if they try)


You can land them very very accurately.   

Unfortunately I don't see the ability for Ukraine to support them in this manner - and I don't see NATO willing to be that bold to do it.


----------



## MilEME09

Photoshop cleaned up images 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515825741459562497


----------



## daftandbarmy




----------



## Skysix

KevinB said:


> Closest I can work a drop zone is 290.6km in the Black Sea international airspace outside Russian TW.
> Which would be a NATO AC dropping material through Russia -- not going to fly.
> 
> Over Ukrainian held terrain I can get 207.3km - but again that won't fly.


Yeah, no. I thought Sea of Azov was technically not Russian airspace?

Only way I could see it working then is a non NATO ally like AUS doing a drop from within UKR airspaceikely over contested ground (WNW of Donetsk?), C17 protected by their F35/F18's.


----------



## KevinB

Прогнозы кровожадных политологов
					






					nvo.ng.ru
				



Written Feb 3, 2022
About the author: Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok - ex-head of the group of the 1st direction of the 1st directorate of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, Colonel


Some representatives of the Russian political class today argue that Russia is able to inflict a crushing defeat on Ukraine in a few hours (and shorter periods are also mentioned) if a military conflict breaks out. Let's see how such statements correspond to reality.

In the expert community of Russia, the opinion has recently taken root quite strongly that it will not even be necessary to send troops to the territory of Ukraine, since the Armed Forces of this country are in a deplorable state.

Some political analysts emphasize that a powerful Russian fire strike will destroy almost all surveillance and communication systems, artillery and tank formations. Moreover, a number of experts conclude that even one crushing blow from Russia will be enough to end such a war.

As a cherry on the cake, some analysts emphasize the fact that no one in Ukraine will defend the “Kyiv regime”

NO EASY WALK

Let's start with the last one. To assert that no one in Ukraine will defend the regime means, in practice, complete ignorance of the military-political situation and the mood of the broad masses of the people in the neighboring state. Moreover, the degree of hatred (which, as you know, is the most effective fuel for armed struggle) in the neighboring republic in relation to Moscow is frankly underestimated. No one will meet the Russian army with bread, salt and flowers in Ukraine.

It seems that the events in the south-east of Ukraine in 2014 did not teach anyone anything. Then, after all, they also expected that the entire left-bank Ukraine, in a single impulse and in a matter of seconds, would turn into Novorossia. We have already drawn maps, estimated the personnel of future administrations of cities and regions, and developed state flags.

But even the Russian-speaking population of this part of Ukraine (including such cities as Kharkov, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Mariupol) did not support such plans in their vast majority. The project "Novorossiya" was somehow imperceptibly blown away and quietly died.

In a word, the liberation campaign in 2022, following the model and likeness of 1939, will not work out in any way. In this case, the words of the classic of Soviet literature Arkady Gaidar are more true than ever: “It is clear that we will now have not an easy battle, but a hard battle.”

"BY A SMALL BLOOD, A POWERFUL BLOW"

Now about the "powerful fire strike by Russia", which allegedly will destroy "practically all surveillance and communication systems, artillery and tank formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine."

This expression alone shows that only political workers could say such a thing. For reference: in the course of hypothetical military operations on the scale of a theater of operations, strikes are carried out on priority targets and massive fire strikes. Note that in the course of operational-strategic planning, the epithets “powerful” (as well as “medium”, “weak”, etc.) are not used. Military science emphasizes that strikes can be strategic (this mostly applies to strategic nuclear forces), operational and tactical. According to the number of forces involved and objects hit, strikes can be massive, group and single. It is still better not to introduce or use other concepts, even in works of a political science nature.

Attacks on priority targets and massive fire strikes can be carried out within the front (fronts on the western borders of Russia have not yet been formed) or the main command of the armed forces in the theater of operations (so far, one has not been created in the South-Western strategic direction either). Anything less than that is no longer a massive hit.

And what is, for example, a massive fire strike (MOA) of the front? To begin with, we note that the maximum number of combat-ready forces and means of aviation, missile troops and artillery, electronic warfare equipment at the disposal of the commander of the front forces (operational-strategic formation) is involved in the MOU. The MOU consists of one massive air sortie, two or three launches of OTP and TR missile systems, and several artillery fire raids. Well, if the degree of fire damage to the enemy is 60-70%.
What is the most important thing in this matter in relation to the conflict with Ukraine? Of course, the MOU will inflict heavy losses on a potential enemy. But to expect to crush the armed forces of an entire state with just one such blow means to show simply unbridled optimism in the course of planning and conducting combat operations. In the course of hypothetical strategic actions on the theater of operations, such MOUs will have to be applied not one or two, but much more.  It must be added by all means that the reserves of promising and high-precision weapons in the RF Armed Forces are not of any unlimited nature. Hypersonic missiles of the Zircon type are not yet in service. And the number of Kalibr (sea-launched cruise missiles), Kinzhals, Kh-101 (air-launched cruise missiles) and Iskander missiles is measured in the hundreds at best (tens in the case of Kinzhals). This arsenal is absolutely not enough to wipe out a state the size of France and with a population of more than 40 million from the face of the Earth. Namely, Ukraine is characterized by such parameters.



ABOUT AIR SUPERIORITY

Sometimes it is asserted in the Russian expert community (by fans of the Douai doctrine) that since the hypothetical military operations in Ukraine will take place under the conditions of complete dominance of Russian aircraft in the air, the war will be extremely short and will end in the shortest possible time. At the same time, it is somehow forgotten that the armed formations of the Afghan opposition during the conflict of 1979-1989 did not have a single aircraft and not a single combat helicopter. And the war in this country dragged on for as much as 10 years. The Chechen fighters did not have a single aircraft either. And the fight against them lasted for several years and cost the federal forces a lot of blood and casualties.
And the Armed Forces of Ukraine still have some kind of combat aircraft. As well as means of air defense.
    By the way, the Ukrainian crews of the anti-aircraft missile forces (by no means Georgian ones) significantly pinched the Russian Air Force during the 2008 conflict. After the first day of hostilities, the leadership of the Russian Air Force was in frank shock from the losses incurred. And you shouldn't forget about it.


Mourned in Advance

Now about the thesis "The Armed Forces of Ukraine are in a deplorable state." Of course, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have problems with aviation and modern air defense systems. But the following must also be acknowledged. If until 2014 the Armed Forces of Ukraine were a fragment of the Soviet army, over the past seven years a qualitatively different army has been created in Ukraine, on a completely different ideological basis and largely on NATO standards. And very modern weapons and equipment are being supplied and continue to be supplied to Ukraine from many countries of the North Atlantic Alliance.  As for the weakest point of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - the Air Force. It cannot be ruled out that the collective West may, in a fairly short time, supply Kiev with fighters, as they say, from the presence of the armed forces - in other words, second-hand. However, this second-hand, in terms of its tactical and technical characteristics, will be quite comparable with the majority of aircraft in the Russian fleet.  Of course, today the Armed Forces of Ukraine are significantly inferior to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in terms of their combat and operational capabilities. No one doubts this, neither in the East nor in the West.  
But this army cannot be taken lightly either. In this regard, one must always remember the testament of Alexander Suvorov: "Never despise your enemy, do not consider him stupider and weaker than you."

Now with regard to the assertion that Western countries will not send a single soldier to die for Ukraine.  
It should be noted that this is likely to be the case. However, in the event of Russia's invasion, this does not at all rule out massive assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the collective West with a wide variety of weapons and military equipment and bulk deliveries of all kinds of materiel. In this regard, the West has already shown a consolidated position, unprecedented until now, which, it seems, was not predicted in Moscow.

There is no doubt that the United States and the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance will begin a kind of reincarnation of Lend-Lease, modeled after the Second World War, there is no doubt. An influx of volunteers from the West, which can be very numerous, is not ruled out.

PARTISANS AND UNDERGROUND

And finally, about the duration of a hypothetical campaign. In the Russian expert community, several hours are called, sometimes even several tens of minutes. At the same time, it is somehow forgotten that we have already gone through all this. The phrase "take the city with one airborne regiment in two hours" has already become a classic of the genre.  
It is also worth recalling that the mighty Stalinist NKVD and the multi-million Soviet army fought the nationalist underground in Western Ukraine for more than 10 years. And now there is an option that the whole of Ukraine can easily go into the partisans. In addition, these formations can easily begin to operate already on the territory of Russia.

The armed struggle in large Ukrainian cities is generally difficult to predict. It is common knowledge that the big city is the best battlefield for the weak and less technically advanced side of the armed conflict.  Serious experts emphasize that in a metropolis it is possible not only to concentrate a grouping of thousands and even tens of thousands of fighters, but also to hide it from the superior firepower of the enemy. And also to supply it with material resources for a long time and make up for losses in people and equipment. Neither mountains, nor forests, nor jungles today provide such an opportunity.  Experts are convinced that the urban environment helps the defenders, slows down the movement of the attackers, allows you to place a record number of fighters per unit area, and compensates for the lag in forces and technologies. And in Ukraine there are more than enough large cities, including those with a million inhabitants. So the Russian army in the course of a hypothetical war with Ukraine may meet with far more than just Stalingrad and Grozny.

FINDINGS

In general, there will be no Ukrainian blitzkrieg. The statements of some experts such as “The Russian army will defeat most of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 30-40 minutes”, “Russia is able to defeat Ukraine in 10 minutes in the event of a full-scale war”, “Russia will defeat Ukraine in eight minutes” have no serious grounds.  And finally, the most important thing. An armed conflict with Ukraine is currently fundamentally not in Russia's national interests. Therefore, it is best for some overexcited Russian experts to forget about their hatred fantasies. And in order to prevent further reputational losses, never remember again.


----------



## KevinB

Skysix said:


> Yeah, no. I thought Sea of Azov was technically not Russian airspace?
> 
> Only way I could see it working then is a non NATO ally like AUS doing a drop from a relatively safe part of UKR airspace, C17 protected by their F35/F18's.


But one needs to transit either Ukrainian or Russian Airspace to get there.
   Both of those are not exactly a great idea at this time for anyone not party to the conflict - as you would shortly be viewed as one.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> Прогнозы кровожадных политологов
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nvo.ng.ru
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Written Feb 3, 2022
> About the author: Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok - ex-head of the group of the 1st direction of the 1st directorate of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, Colonel
> 
> 
> Some representatives of the Russian political class today argue that Russia is able to inflict a crushing defeat on Ukraine in a few hours (and shorter periods are also mentioned) if a military conflict breaks out. Let's see how such statements correspond to reality.
> 
> In the expert community of Russia, the opinion has recently taken root quite strongly that it will not even be necessary to send troops to the territory of Ukraine, since the Armed Forces of this country are in a deplorable state.
> 
> Some political analysts emphasize that a powerful Russian fire strike will destroy almost all surveillance and communication systems, artillery and tank formations. Moreover, a number of experts conclude that even one crushing blow from Russia will be enough to end such a war.
> 
> As a cherry on the cake, some analysts emphasize the fact that no one in Ukraine will defend the “Kyiv regime”
> 
> NO EASY WALK
> 
> Let's start with the last one. To assert that no one in Ukraine will defend the regime means, in practice, complete ignorance of the military-political situation and the mood of the broad masses of the people in the neighboring state. Moreover, the degree of hatred (which, as you know, is the most effective fuel for armed struggle) in the neighboring republic in relation to Moscow is frankly underestimated. No one will meet the Russian army with bread, salt and flowers in Ukraine.
> 
> It seems that the events in the south-east of Ukraine in 2014 did not teach anyone anything. Then, after all, they also expected that the entire left-bank Ukraine, in a single impulse and in a matter of seconds, would turn into Novorossia. We have already drawn maps, estimated the personnel of future administrations of cities and regions, and developed state flags.
> 
> But even the Russian-speaking population of this part of Ukraine (including such cities as Kharkov, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Mariupol) did not support such plans in their vast majority. The project "Novorossiya" was somehow imperceptibly blown away and quietly died.
> 
> In a word, the liberation campaign in 2022, following the model and likeness of 1939, will not work out in any way. In this case, the words of the classic of Soviet literature Arkady Gaidar are more true than ever: “It is clear that we will now have not an easy battle, but a hard battle.”
> 
> "BY A SMALL BLOOD, A POWERFUL BLOW"
> 
> Now about the "powerful fire strike by Russia", which allegedly will destroy "practically all surveillance and communication systems, artillery and tank formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine."
> 
> This expression alone shows that only political workers could say such a thing. For reference: in the course of hypothetical military operations on the scale of a theater of operations, strikes are carried out on priority targets and massive fire strikes. Note that in the course of operational-strategic planning, the epithets “powerful” (as well as “medium”, “weak”, etc.) are not used. Military science emphasizes that strikes can be strategic (this mostly applies to strategic nuclear forces), operational and tactical. According to the number of forces involved and objects hit, strikes can be massive, group and single. It is still better not to introduce or use other concepts, even in works of a political science nature.
> 
> Attacks on priority targets and massive fire strikes can be carried out within the front (fronts on the western borders of Russia have not yet been formed) or the main command of the armed forces in the theater of operations (so far, one has not been created in the South-Western strategic direction either). Anything less than that is no longer a massive hit.
> 
> And what is, for example, a massive fire strike (MOA) of the front? To begin with, we note that the maximum number of combat-ready forces and means of aviation, missile troops and artillery, electronic warfare equipment at the disposal of the commander of the front forces (operational-strategic formation) is involved in the MOU. The MOU consists of one massive air sortie, two or three launches of OTP and TR missile systems, and several artillery fire raids. Well, if the degree of fire damage to the enemy is 60-70%.
> What is the most important thing in this matter in relation to the conflict with Ukraine? Of course, the MOU will inflict heavy losses on a potential enemy. But to expect to crush the armed forces of an entire state with just one such blow means to show simply unbridled optimism in the course of planning and conducting combat operations. In the course of hypothetical strategic actions on the theater of operations, such MOUs will have to be applied not one or two, but much more.  It must be added by all means that the reserves of promising and high-precision weapons in the RF Armed Forces are not of any unlimited nature. Hypersonic missiles of the Zircon type are not yet in service. And the number of Kalibr (sea-launched cruise missiles), Kinzhals, Kh-101 (air-launched cruise missiles) and Iskander missiles is measured in the hundreds at best (tens in the case of Kinzhals). This arsenal is absolutely not enough to wipe out a state the size of France and with a population of more than 40 million from the face of the Earth. Namely, Ukraine is characterized by such parameters.
> 
> 
> 
> ABOUT AIR SUPERIORITY
> 
> Sometimes it is asserted in the Russian expert community (by fans of the Douai doctrine) that since the hypothetical military operations in Ukraine will take place under the conditions of complete dominance of Russian aircraft in the air, the war will be extremely short and will end in the shortest possible time. At the same time, it is somehow forgotten that the armed formations of the Afghan opposition during the conflict of 1979-1989 did not have a single aircraft and not a single combat helicopter. And the war in this country dragged on for as much as 10 years. The Chechen fighters did not have a single aircraft either. And the fight against them lasted for several years and cost the federal forces a lot of blood and casualties.
> And the Armed Forces of Ukraine still have some kind of combat aircraft. As well as means of air defense.
> By the way, the Ukrainian crews of the anti-aircraft missile forces (by no means Georgian ones) significantly pinched the Russian Air Force during the 2008 conflict. After the first day of hostilities, the leadership of the Russian Air Force was in frank shock from the losses incurred. And you shouldn't forget about it.
> 
> 
> Mourned in Advance
> 
> Now about the thesis "The Armed Forces of Ukraine are in a deplorable state." Of course, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have problems with aviation and modern air defense systems. But the following must also be acknowledged. If until 2014 the Armed Forces of Ukraine were a fragment of the Soviet army, over the past seven years a qualitatively different army has been created in Ukraine, on a completely different ideological basis and largely on NATO standards. And very modern weapons and equipment are being supplied and continue to be supplied to Ukraine from many countries of the North Atlantic Alliance.  As for the weakest point of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - the Air Force. It cannot be ruled out that the collective West may, in a fairly short time, supply Kiev with fighters, as they say, from the presence of the armed forces - in other words, second-hand. However, this second-hand, in terms of its tactical and technical characteristics, will be quite comparable with the majority of aircraft in the Russian fleet.  Of course, today the Armed Forces of Ukraine are significantly inferior to the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in terms of their combat and operational capabilities. No one doubts this, neither in the East nor in the West.
> But this army cannot be taken lightly either. In this regard, one must always remember the testament of Alexander Suvorov: "Never despise your enemy, do not consider him stupider and weaker than you."
> 
> Now with regard to the assertion that Western countries will not send a single soldier to die for Ukraine.
> It should be noted that this is likely to be the case. However, in the event of Russia's invasion, this does not at all rule out massive assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the collective West with a wide variety of weapons and military equipment and bulk deliveries of all kinds of materiel. In this regard, the West has already shown a consolidated position, unprecedented until now, which, it seems, was not predicted in Moscow.
> 
> There is no doubt that the United States and the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance will begin a kind of reincarnation of Lend-Lease, modeled after the Second World War, there is no doubt. An influx of volunteers from the West, which can be very numerous, is not ruled out.
> 
> PARTISANS AND UNDERGROUND
> 
> And finally, about the duration of a hypothetical campaign. In the Russian expert community, several hours are called, sometimes even several tens of minutes. At the same time, it is somehow forgotten that we have already gone through all this. The phrase "take the city with one airborne regiment in two hours" has already become a classic of the genre.
> It is also worth recalling that the mighty Stalinist NKVD and the multi-million Soviet army fought the nationalist underground in Western Ukraine for more than 10 years. And now there is an option that the whole of Ukraine can easily go into the partisans. In addition, these formations can easily begin to operate already on the territory of Russia.
> 
> The armed struggle in large Ukrainian cities is generally difficult to predict. It is common knowledge that the big city is the best battlefield for the weak and less technically advanced side of the armed conflict.  Serious experts emphasize that in a metropolis it is possible not only to concentrate a grouping of thousands and even tens of thousands of fighters, but also to hide it from the superior firepower of the enemy. And also to supply it with material resources for a long time and make up for losses in people and equipment. Neither mountains, nor forests, nor jungles today provide such an opportunity.  Experts are convinced that the urban environment helps the defenders, slows down the movement of the attackers, allows you to place a record number of fighters per unit area, and compensates for the lag in forces and technologies. And in Ukraine there are more than enough large cities, including those with a million inhabitants. So the Russian army in the course of a hypothetical war with Ukraine may meet with far more than just Stalingrad and Grozny.
> 
> FINDINGS
> 
> In general, there will be no Ukrainian blitzkrieg. The statements of some experts such as “The Russian army will defeat most of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 30-40 minutes”, “Russia is able to defeat Ukraine in 10 minutes in the event of a full-scale war”, “Russia will defeat Ukraine in eight minutes” have no serious grounds.  And finally, the most important thing. An armed conflict with Ukraine is currently fundamentally not in Russia's national interests. Therefore, it is best for some overexcited Russian experts to forget about their hatred fantasies. And in order to prevent further reputational losses, never remember again.


Sounds like the Ops plan I heard prior to seeing 1 VP wiped out by Atropians during Maple Resolve....


----------



## KevinB

Sailor 35 said:


> Imperialist lies.


Great now all we need is Airman 35 to explain that Russian Aerospace Forces have been intentionally intercepting Ukrainian SAM's with their aircraft...


----------



## KevinB

rmc_wannabe said:


> Sounds like the Ops plan I heard prior to seeing 1 VP wiped out by Atropians during Maple Resolve....


Well he is the -EX head  -- seems his findings didn't agree with the pre-existing estimate that was situated...


----------



## OldSolduer

Halifax Tar said:


> Def something went a rye around the stacks it seems.


Make mine a double  Yes I am a spelling freak. "Awry" is the correct term....


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515857045345517569


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> Great now all we need is Airman 35 to explain that Russian Aerospace Forces have been intentionally intercepting Ukrainian SAM's with their aircraft...


Aviator35, KevinB.  🤔 

Russia is an gender-enlightened society, and Airperson sounds much more clinical than a jaunty, non-gendered Aviator. 👍🏼


----------



## Halifax Tar

OldSolduer said:


> Make mine a double  Yes I am a spelling freak. "Awry" is the correct term....



Lol spell check kept me off balance so I went with it lol 

Wisers good for you ?


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515660142712348675
What the.....


----------



## Good2Golf

Sailor 35 said:


> Imperialist lies.


Absolutely, @Sailor 35! 👍🏼   The P-1000 Vulcans appear to be in wonderful condition.  The verticle-launch tubes of the S-300F missiles also appear to be in good condition.  I see the Captain of the _Москва_ wisely used the ship’s adjustable ballast system to lower the stern slightly so as to hide the ship’s stern name below the water to keep the Ukrainians from positively identifying the _Москва_.  Very smart tactics from the ship’s Captain, indeed!


----------



## Furniture

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515660142712348675
> What the.....


I suspect the guy is correct, it would end the "special military operation", it would also end Russia, and maybe the world....


----------



## OldSolduer

Halifax Tar said:


> Lol spell check kept me off balance so I went with it lol
> 
> Wisers good for you ?


Yes that’s fine. My son drank Wisers 👍🏻


----------



## Colin Parkinson

KevinB said:


> Well he is the -EX head  -- seems his findings didn't agree with the pre-existing estimate that was situated...


Not a "Team player"


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515830156736217095


----------



## ModlrMike

The Ukrainians need to execute something spectacular on that day.


----------



## KevinB

ModlrMike said:


> The Ukrainians need to execute something spectacular on that day.


Like Putin


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Well he is the -EX head  -- seems his findings didn't agree with the pre-existing estimate that was situated...


Also, he wasn't the only retired RUS officer saying "uh, may not be a cake walk" before D-Day.








						A Former Russian General Is Warning Putin Not to Invade Ukraine. That Might Be a Big Deal.
					

It could be a sign of wider opposition among the country's national security leaders.




					slate.com


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Also, he wasn't the only retired RUS officer saying "uh, may not be a cake walk" before D-Day.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A Former Russian General Is Warning Putin Not to Invade Ukraine. That Might Be a Big Deal.
> 
> 
> It could be a sign of wider opposition among the country's national security leaders.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> slate.com


I’ve found 5 Col and above folks who kept saying ‘bad idea’ - they are all now ‘ex’ from their positions (most seem to have been sacked a D day -1).   
  No one apparently wanted to hear a contrarian view once the go had been made at higher.  

Admittedly probably a safer method of being sacked in Russia than what occurs now.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

KevinB said:


> I’ve found 5 Col and above folks who kept saying ‘bad idea’ - they are all now ‘ex’ from their positions (most seem to have been sacked a D day -1).
> No one apparently wanted to hear a contrarian view once the go had been made at higher.
> 
> Admittedly probably a safer method of being sacked in Russia than what occurs now.


I mean if you fire enough, kill enough, send enough to their glorious deaths, eventually one will get it right, you hope 😁


----------



## daftandbarmy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I mean if you fire enough, kill enough, send enough to their glorious deaths, eventually one will get it right, you hope 😁



If you look at Canada's battles in Italy during WW2 I think you'll be able to dig up a few examples of that policy in action too


----------



## Brad Sallows

If only there were some historical examples of what is likely to happen if you go "all-in" against "the West".


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516020663106080768

and apparently not done yet...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516062756339867659


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516088032180506638


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516088032180506638


Have to wonder if Ivan is going to try an old fashion circa late 1944, early 1945 massed arty approach and pick one or maybe two areas and saturate the area with arty/rockets/carpet bombing and then drive the tanks through the gap and push in as deep as they can to wreak havoc in the rear areas.


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> 8 April
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Satellite images show 13-kilometer-long Russian military convoy moving towards Kharkiv
> 
> 
> Satellite images collected and analyzed by private US company Maxar Technologies showed a long Russian military convoy moving through the Ukrainian town of Velykyi Burluk towards Kharkiv. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 10 April
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u0x075
> 
> 
> 
> 14 April
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian forces blew up bridge with convoy of Russian military equipment heading to Izium
> 
> 
> The Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed a bridge with a convoy of Russian military equipment heading to the city of Izium, Kharkiv region. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 16 April
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> General Staff on situation across all directions: Active hostilities, Russians regroup and suffer losses
> 
> 
> Military commissariats of the Central Military District of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are encouraging conscripts, who are in reserve, to sign short-term contracts for a period of three months to one year. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 70156
> 
> The Russians have been trying to get out of the valley at Izyum for almost a month now.  They have had difficulty moving units and support up from Belgorod.  They have not dominated the ground south of Velykyi Burluk and east of Kharkiv.  They have been losing convoys en route and Battle Groups in the effort to drive out of the valley.  The latest was the loss of a BTG worth of gear in the Synychyne pontoon crossing area yesterday.
> 
> Concurrent with yesterday's losses, and 4 days after reports of a bridge  on a supply route being blown, the Ukrainians report a Russian shift eastward towards Svatove and the Ukrainians start pushing eastward out of Kharkiv.
> 
> If the Russians are moving their effort eastward it could mean a few things:
> 
> 1.  They are more insecure about moving troops and supplies through the Kharkiv Region
> 2.  They are giving up on the effort to outflank the Ukrainians through Izyum
> 3.  They are redirecting eastward through Svatove to hammer on the Ukrainian hinge in the Lysychansk Salient (Rubizhne-Popasna)
> 4.  They are redirecting eastward to go onto the defensive behind the existing Line of Control and try to hang on to Luhansk and Donetsk
> 
> 5. Would be, increase the effort against Mariupol to clear it in time to get troops polished up for a May 9th parade in Moscow declaring victory by taking the Azov Regiment off the boards.




Further to the previous:

18 April



> *The Armed Forces of Ukraine have liberated a number of settlements around the town of Izium in Kharkiv region.*
> 
> Oleksandr Motuzianyk, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, said this at a briefing, when asked a relevant question by journalists, Ukrinform reports.
> 
> "Yes, I can confirm this. A number of settlements have been liberated by the Ukrainian military as a result of intense hostilities. But I cannot provide more information,” he said.











						Ukrainian Armed Forces liberated several settlements around Izium
					

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have liberated a number of settlements around the town of Izium in Kharkiv region. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				




Pressure in the Kharkiv-Izyum sector may be slackening.

The effort has shifted to Kremina, Rubizhne, Lysychansk, Sievierodonetsk, the Hirske community, and Popasna.  Residents being evacuated.



> *The offensive by Russian troops has begun in the Luhansk region, and street fighting is taking place in Kreminna.*











						Russian forces begin offensive in Luhansk region, street fighting reported in Kreminna
					

The offensive by Russian troops has begun in the Luhansk region, and street fighting is taking place in Kreminna. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				






> *The focus of a new offensive by Russian forces will be Rubizhne and Popasna in Luhansk region.*
> 
> "Rubizhne and Popasna are under the greatest threat. Because they simply will not break through Zolote, because our line of defense is very strong there. They have been shelling it from morning till night for almost two months, and they still can't make a breakthrough there. But as to Popasna and Rubizhne, they have accumulated enough heavy military equipment and personnel there, and that is where the main direction will be,” Haidai.











						Invaders focusing assault on Rubizhne and Popasna in Luhansk region – governor
					

The focus of a new offensive by Russian forces will be Rubizhne and Popasna in Luhansk region. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				






> *Soldiers of the Azov Regiment, Motor Rifle Brigade, and the Marines continue to defend Mariupol.*











						Zelensky informs Nausėda about heroic defense of Mariupol
					

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky has informed President of Lithuania Gitanas Nausėda about the heroic defense of Mariupol, Donetsk region, from Russian invaders. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Brad Sallows

> and then drive the tanks through the gap and push in as deep as they can to wreak havoc in the rear areas.



Let 'em in, close the door.  Once beyond their own guns and however far they got on one tank of fuel, the picture changes.  The defenders just need to keep their nerve and wait for that change.


----------



## Kirkhill

A bit more from that the Izyum sector, as well as others.

It appears that the Russians tried to push out from their Bridgehead holdings at the edge of the valley in three directions simultaneously.  They were repelled in all three sectors.

After that the Ukrainians started reporting on the liberation of communities in the Izyum area.









						General Staff: Enemy failed to expand bridgehead on left bank of Siverskyi Donets
					

Russian invaders have failed to expand a bridgehead on the left bank of the Siverskyi Donets and create conditions for the rapid deployment of troops. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> Further to the previous:
> 
> 18 April
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian Armed Forces liberated several settlements around Izium
> 
> 
> The Armed Forces of Ukraine have liberated a number of settlements around the town of Izium in Kharkiv region. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Pressure in the Kharkiv-Izyum sector may be slackening.
> 
> The effort has shifted to Kremina, Rubizhne, Lysychansk, Sievierodonetsk, the Hirske community, and Popasna.  Residents being evacuated.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian forces begin offensive in Luhansk region, street fighting reported in Kreminna
> 
> 
> The offensive by Russian troops has begun in the Luhansk region, and street fighting is taking place in Kreminna. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Invaders focusing assault on Rubizhne and Popasna in Luhansk region – governor
> 
> 
> The focus of a new offensive by Russian forces will be Rubizhne and Popasna in Luhansk region. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zelensky informs Nausėda about heroic defense of Mariupol
> 
> 
> President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky has informed President of Lithuania Gitanas Nausėda about the heroic defense of Mariupol, Donetsk region, from Russian invaders. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net


Lysychansk, - from above.

The Brit 'You-Tuber' - 'Bald and Bankrupt' that I talked about earlier, well he went to 'Lysychansk' very shortly before the war kicked off.  Look for his channel on Youtube and search for Lysychansk.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> I’ve found 5 Col and above folks who kept saying ‘bad idea’ - they are all now ‘ex’ from their positions (most seem to have been sacked a D day -1).
> No one apparently wanted to hear a contrarian view once the go had been made at higher.
> 
> Admittedly probably a safer method of being sacked in Russia than what occurs now.


As long as they stay away from tea & windows above the first floor, anyway.

Meanwhile, a hearty "well done" by Putin & Co.








						Russian Brigade Accused Of Bucha War Crimes Awarded Honorary Title
					

Russian President Vladimir Putin has bestowed an honorary title on a brigade accused by Ukraine of committing war crimes in the town of Bucha.




					www.rferl.org
				



Order (safe PDF, in Russian) attached


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516107114065891333


----------



## Kirkhill

Shifting focus to Kherson region





> In the Southern Bug direction, Russian troops are focusing efforts on maintaining the captured frontiers and continue to fire on the positions of Ukrainian forces in the direction of Mykolaiv and Oleksandrivka.



Could this be interpreted as Russians being on the defensive while Ukrainians attempt to push them back from the Kherson borders?  Ukrainians on the offense but having a hard slog?



> The enemy is likely to continue fighting to reach the administrative borders of Kherson Region.



And this meaning that the Russians too are fighting an offensive battle when they can?  But being actively opposed by the Ukrainians?

Sounds like it might be a bit of a ding dong battle with neither side having the upper hand.  Equivalent losses?









						General Staff: Enemy failed to expand bridgehead on left bank of Siverskyi Donets
					

Russian invaders have failed to expand a bridgehead on the left bank of the Siverskyi Donets and create conditions for the rapid deployment of troops. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Jarnhamar

The Bread Guy said:


> Meanwhile, a hearty "well done" by Putin & Co.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian Brigade Accused Of Bucha War Crimes Awarded Honorary Title
> 
> 
> Russian President Vladimir Putin has bestowed an honorary title on a brigade accused by Ukraine of committing war crimes in the town of Bucha.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rferl.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Order (safe PDF, in Russian) attached



Does Ukraine have a Mossad equivalent?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Jarnhamar said:


> Does Ukraine have a Mossad equivalent?


Yeah, but I'm guessing not quite so ... Mossad-ish if I catch your drift (that we _know_ of, anyway) ....








						Security Service of Ukraine - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:


> Putin adviser Anatoly Chubais quits and leaves Russia over invasion of Ukraine
> 
> 
> The Kremlin’s climate envoy resigns from government in highest-ranking defection yet
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com


Now digging into his past a titch ...








						A criminal case is being prepared against Chubais who fled Russia after objecting to the war
					

In March, Anatoly Chubais, a close adviser to Putin, resigned from the government and left Russia over his objection to Putin’s assault on Ukraine. His position was not influential but still created headlines across the globe. Chubais, during the Yeltsin era, was involved in mass corrupt...




					olgalautman.substack.com


----------



## Zipperhead99

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515830156736217095


This right here should alert the West, especially our own head in the clouds government, that there is now a new Cold War and we better start to take defence seriously again.  Even if Russia completely withdrew from Ukraine this week, all of this is far from over and the Russian government is sure going to remember all the support that we provided to Ukraine the next time we get locked into another Afghanistan or Iraq


----------



## OldSolduer

The Bread Guy said:


> Now digging into his past a titch ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A criminal case is being prepared against Chubais who fled Russia after objecting to the war
> 
> 
> In March, Anatoly Chubais, a close adviser to Putin, resigned from the government and left Russia over his objection to Putin’s assault on Ukraine. His position was not influential but still created headlines across the globe. Chubais, during the Yeltsin era, was involved in mass corrupt...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> olgalautman.substack.com


Something about a rodent deserting a sinking ship comes to mind


----------



## MilEME09

Oops


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516104008821350410


----------



## Weinie

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515830156736217095


Meh. Ria Novosti is a mouthpiece of the Kremlin.

*On 9 December 2013 Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the liquidation of RIA Novosti "On some measures to improve the effectiveness of the state mass media"*

I wouldn't expect them to say anything different.


----------



## Kirkhill

Still more on Izyum


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u6fcsq



So the Ukrainians are driving East out of Chuhuiv to Kupyansk and South East to Izyum.   At the same time the Ukrainian forces that were blocking the Russians in the Izyum valley are going on the offensive, also heading for Kupyansk.   

This will trap the Russians in Izyum with no support or supplies, block the supply route from Belgorod to Svatove and leave the Ukrainians in the rear of the Russians striking the Lysychansk Salient just when Russia is launching its latest offensive.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Kirkhill said:


> Still more on Izyum
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u6fcsq
> 
> View attachment 70178
> 
> So the Ukrainians are driving East out of Chuhuiv to Kupyansk and South East to Izyum.   At the same time the Ukrainian forces that were blocking the Russians in the Izyum valley are going on the offensive, also heading for Kupyansk.
> 
> This will trap the Russians in Izyum with no support or supplies, block the supply route from Belgorod to Svatove and leave the Ukrainians in the rear of the Russians striking the Lysychansk Salient just when Russia is launching its latest offensive.


The key to Russian Logistics is Kupiansk.  

This map isn't accurate though. The Russians have captured Kreminna and are fighting in Lozove which is South of Borova.  The key terrain the Ukrainians absolutely need to hold is Lyman and they need to prevent the Russians capturing Yarova.  

Loss of Yarova means Russia can resupply Izium by rail and if the Russians are able to capture Lyman, they have a railyard within artillery range of Slovyansk.


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> Still more on Izyum
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u6fcsq
> 
> View attachment 70178
> 
> So the Ukrainians are driving East out of Chuhuiv to Kupyansk and South East to Izyum.   At the same time the Ukrainian forces that were blocking the Russians in the Izyum valley are going on the offensive, also heading for Kupyansk.
> 
> This will trap the Russians in Izyum with no support or supplies, block the supply route from Belgorod to Svatove and leave the Ukrainians in the rear of the Russians striking the Lysychansk Salient just when Russia is launching its latest offensive.


Should be noted there are 12-14 BTGs in Izyum. If Ukraine can isolate them and starve them of supplies, this entire offensive could be stopped cold. Given Russias current combat power, I think this is their battle of the bulge moment. Meaning if this offensive fails, they may not have the combat power to try again. If the Russian Army breaks, Ukraine will be able to push back hard.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> Should be noted there are 12-14 BTGs in Izyum. If Ukraine can isolate them and starve them of supplies, this entire offensive could be stopped cold. Given Russias current combat power, I think this is their battle of the bulge moment. Meaning if this offensive fails, they may not have the combat power to try again. If the Russian Army breaks, Ukraine will be able to push back hard.



Quick terrain analysis for you and probable Russian intentions.

IMO Ukraine needs to advance straight at Kupiansk if they want to threaten the Russian supply lines; however, they need to be very careful about overplaying their hand.  

The terrain between Kupiansk and Chuhuiv is actually pretty garbage with lots of little rivers, small villages and natural obstacles that heavily favour the defender.  You have to also think that the Russians control MSRs and supply lines to Izium on both sides of the the Oskii River now.  So even if Ukraine broke through and drove through to Kupiansk..... what's to stop the Russian BTGs massing in Izium from driving straight up that major highway and cutting off the Ukrainians behind all those lovely natural obstacles?

It's also critical for a number of reasons for the Ukrainians to maintain control of the pocket on the North side of Siverskyi Donets River North of Slovyansk.  If the Russians managed to capture that side, the Russians have a nice railhead they can bring up masses of artillery ammunition to and they will now also be able to resupply Izium by rail, which we know is their preferred method with trucks acting as a supplement.


----------



## Haggis

Zipperhead99 said:


> This right here should alert the West, especially our own head in the clouds government, that there is now a new Cold War and we better start to take defence seriously again.  Even if Russia completely withdrew from Ukraine this week, all of this is far from over and the Russian government is sure going to remember all the support that we provided to Ukraine the next time we get locked into another Afghanistan or Iraq


Meh.. Ukraine is at war.  Canada is at the park, playing alone and hoping the big kids don't come over..


----------



## brihard

Many reports in the past hour of mass artillery along pretty much the whole Donbas front. Consensus seems to be that the major Russian offensive is launching.

Stout hearts and steady nerve to the Ukrainians. Hopefully they can hold, and force the Russian culmination.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> Oops
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516104008821350410


Dear Wired.com, On the batch of 620 names leaked, it was UKR military intelligence, not "Ukraine’s Central Intelligence Agency" that did the leaking:

“Ukraine intelligence publishes names of 620 alleged Russian agents” (Reuters) 
“Ukraine names 620 Russian security officers «involved in criminal activities in Europe» “(Baltic News Network) 
“Employees of the FSB of Russia involved in the criminal activities of the aggressor country in Europe” (UKR mil int, Google English from Ukrainian)
These guys do a LOT of doxxing - here's a list of all the units they've published at least alleged partial nominal rolls from since the invasion.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

brihard said:


> Many reports in the past hour of mass artillery along pretty much the whole Donbas front. Consensus seems to be that the major Russian offensive is launching.
> 
> Stout hearts and steady nerve to the Ukrainians. Hopefully they can hold, and force the Russian culmination.


I expect it will be an exceptionally lengthy bombardment.  This is why while it's nice to think about Ukraine closing 80km of terrain towards Kupiansk from Kharkiv, it's unrealistic.  They need to preserve as much combat power as they can to survive this next offensive.

As I said above, I believe it's absolutely critical they hold that Northern Pocket between Borova and Slovyansk that's currently contested.


----------



## The Bread Guy

New map out there  

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516134514350829572


----------



## Brad Sallows

Depends on where the bombardment is landing.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Brad Sallows said:


> Depends on where the bombardment is landing.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516156552729796608
Seems I should have been an Intelligence Officer.  Going to attempt an eviction of the UAF from the North side of the Siverskyi Donets River IVO Slovyansk.  Makes perfect sense from a Logistics point of view.  Natural defensive barrier and will allow artillery to be brought forward to support an Armoured Thrust toward Slovyansk/Barvinkove on the West side of the Siverskyi Donets.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Tidbit for the BTG counters/trackers in the gang here ...








						Defense Official: Russia Adds 11 Battalion Tactical Groups in Ukraine
					

There are now 76 Russian battalion tactical groups in the Donbas region of Ukraine and in the country



					www.defense.gov


----------



## Kirkhill

Another BTG gone.









						Ukrainian defenders repulse seven enemy attacks, destroy 36 vehicles and Su-30 in JFO area
					

Ukrainian defenders have repulsed seven enemy attacks within the Joint Forces Operation (JFO) area, destroying 36 Russian military vehicles, one artillery system, one Su-30 fighter and four Orlan-10 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Kirkhill

> *Izium is remaining the hottest spot in Kharkiv Region.*











						Ukraine Army downs enemy plane near Balakliia
					

One more enemy aircraft has been shot down by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kharkiv Region. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Kirkhill

Russian troops begin offensive operations in eastern Ukraine
					

In Russia’s Rostov region, the invaders continue to form additional units and plan to complete them by April 24. Meanwhile, helipads are rolled out in Belgorod region.  — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				






> In Izium direction, the aggressor operates with separate units of the 1st Guards Tank Army, the 20th Combined Arms Army of the Western Military District, the 35th and 68th Combined Arms Armies of the Eastern Military District and the air assault forces. Attempts to advance in Izium-Slovyansk and Izium-Barvinkove directions are expected to continue.
> 
> The helipads are rolled out in Russia’s Belgorod region, close to the state border with Ukraine.
> 
> In Donetsk and Tavriysky directions, a group of Russian troops continues to focus their efforts on capturing the localities of Lyman, Kreminna, Popasna, and Rubizhne, as well as establishing full control over Mariupol.
> 
> The enemy also intensified offensive operations in Sievierodonetsk, Popasna, Kurakhove, and Zaporizhzhia directions.


----------



## MilEME09

Oh heck yes


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516170132124540928


----------



## Kirkhill

Interesting article about blowing the bridge at Borova.









						Ukraine update: Blowing up the bridge at Borova
					

On Wednesday, the Ukrainian government circulated images of a destroyed bridge somewhere in the Donbas region—a bridge that had been taken down by Ukrainian special forces. Not only was the bridge itself destroyed, it was taken down as a Russian convoy...




					m.dailykos.com
				




As noted earlier the Russians have been stymied from getting out of the valley at Izyum and up onto the Steppes to head for Barvinkove.

The Ukrainians are heading east from Chuhuiv to Kup'yans'k with fighting reported on the Kup'yans'k-Izyum route at Staroverivka, 14 km from Kup'yans'k.  The Ukrainians are also heading south east to intercept the Kup'yans'k route at Volokhir Yar.  With the bridge at Borova blown and interrupting that route then Izyum, if it is not kettled is in grave danger of being kettled.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u6bbfy

As noted the Russians crossed the river at Synychyne on Mar 26.  It is now 23 days later and they still haven't made it out of the valley.

The latest effort towards Bervinkove was yesterday but it too was repulsed.  The day before the 106th Airborne took a beating trying to do the same thing.   The 106th had been holding the Volokhir Yar sector of the Kup'yans'k-Izyum route that is now under threat from the Chuhuiv forces.









						General Staff on situation across all directions: Active hostilities, Russians regroup and suffer losses
					

Military commissariats of the Central Military District of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are encouraging conscripts, who are in reserve, to sign short-term contracts for a period of three months to one year. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				



Also, as noted, the Russians felt it necessary to shift their traffic eastwards to Svatove.  Which would feed the effort against Kreminna, which is reporting heavy fighting.


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> Interesting article about blowing the bridge at Borova.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine update: Blowing up the bridge at Borova
> 
> 
> On Wednesday, the Ukrainian government circulated images of a destroyed bridge somewhere in the Donbas region—a bridge that had been taken down by Ukrainian special forces. Not only was the bridge itself destroyed, it was taken down as a Russian convoy...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> m.dailykos.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As noted earlier the Russians have been stymied from getting out of the valley at Izyum and up onto the Steppes to head for Barvinkove.
> 
> The Ukrainians are heading east from Chuhuiv to Kup'yans'k with fighting reported on the Kup'yans'k-Izyum route at Staroverivka, 14 km from Kup'yans'k.  The Ukrainians are also heading south east to intercept the Kup'yans'k route at Volokhir Yar.  With the bridge at Borova blown and interrupting that route then Izyum, if it is not kettled is in grave danger of being kettled.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u6bbfy
> 
> As noted the Russians crossed the river at Synychyne on Mar 26.  It is now 23 days later and they still haven't made it out of the valley.
> 
> The latest effort towards Bervinkove was yesterday but it too was repulsed.  The day before the 106th Airborne took a beating trying to do the same thing.   The 106th had been holding the Volokhir Yar sector of the Kup'yans'k-Izyum route that is now under threat from the Chuhuiv forces.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> General Staff on situation across all directions: Active hostilities, Russians regroup and suffer losses
> 
> 
> Military commissariats of the Central Military District of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are encouraging conscripts, who are in reserve, to sign short-term contracts for a period of three months to one year. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Also, as noted, the Russians felt it necessary to shift their traffic eastwards to Svatove.  Which would feed the effort against Kreminna, which is reporting heavy fighting.
> 
> 
> View attachment 70182


If the Ukrainians have actually advanced that far, it means Russian rear area security is non existant. They out all their eggs in one basket and their soft squishy rear guard is being taken out to encircle the main force.


----------



## Kirkhill

Spies being outed.

Intelligence imprisoned and purged

General Officers being dismissed, and dying.

And a plague of heart attacks and suicides.

Who wouldn't be Russian?


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u6em58


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516087197920813061


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516134514350829572


----------



## KevinB

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/18/azovstal-mariupol-steel-iron/


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> If the Ukrainians have actually advanced that far, it means Russian rear area security is non existant. They out all their eggs in one basket and their soft squishy rear guard is being taken out to encircle the main force.


Except it's not true and @Kirkhill map is not accurate. 

Also, most supply to Izium is going through Borova now as Russians are able to move trains all the way to there.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516185794041585672
Ukraine absolutely needs to defend the pocket between Borova and Slovyansk.


----------



## Zipperhead99

Cue the Queen song "Another one bites the dust"









						Russia's 40th senior officer reportedly killed in Ukraine
					

The Russian military has reportedly lost its 40th senior officer since the invasion of Ukraine began less than two months ago. The Ukrainian side first




					americanmilitarynews.com


----------



## Haggis

Zipperhead99 said:


> Cue the Queen song "Another one bites the dust"
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia's 40th senior officer reportedly killed in Ukraine
> 
> 
> The Russian military has reportedly lost its 40th senior officer since the invasion of Ukraine began less than two months ago. The Ukrainian side first
> 
> 
> 
> 
> americanmilitarynews.com


It seems the Russians have a very aggressive succession planning model.


----------



## Skysix

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516087197920813061


Well, the Brits used blow up tanks in WW2 as decoys ...


----------



## Kirkhill

https://twitter.com/hashtag/maps?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1516185794041585672%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Farmy.ca%2Fforums%2Fthreads%2Fukraine-superthread.111881%2Fpage-551&src=hashtag_click
		





The Izyum forces certainly seem to be stymied with recent efforts at Zavody and Dibrovne repelled.
The western, or Chuhuiv-side route seems to be unsound, at very least with fighting reported at Staroverivka
The eastern route if not blocked at Borova seems to be under pressure at Lozove.

That leaves the Svatove route.  Which was reported as being active yesterday.


While I will freely agree that my BTGs and Bdes are at variance with the map you directed us to, I would suggest that:

1 the existence of units in the areas indicated seems to be congruent even if not precise.
2 the Izyum pocket contains elements of 1 Guards Tank Army, 20 Combined Arms Army and the 106th Div of the VDV.

That represents a goodly portion of the Western Military District.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Haggis said:


> It seems the Russians have a very aggressive succession planning model.


Darwinistic, if you will ...


----------



## MilEME09

They could flood the whole valley...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516047579108319239

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515258822113300485


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Kirkhill said:


> https://twitter.com/hashtag/maps?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1516185794041585672%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Farmy.ca%2Fforums%2Fthreads%2Fukraine-superthread.111881%2Fpage-551&src=hashtag_click
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 70188
> 
> 
> The Izyum forces certainly seem to be stymied with recent efforts at Zavody and Dibrovne repelled.
> The western, or Chuhuiv-side route seems to be unsound, at very least with fighting reported at Staroverivka
> The eastern route if not blocked at Borova seems to be under pressure at Lozove.


The Russians only took Borova a few weeks ago.  They have now advanced on Lozove.  They have also taken Kreminna.

It is the Russians who are advancing in that area, not the Ukrainians.

As for the Forces around Kharkiv.  There are a number of Rivers there and significant obstacles.  It makes no sense at this time to advance on Kupiansk.

The Russian Forces that are there are in a Blocking position to protect the offensive against Slovyansk



Kirkhill said:


> That leaves the Svatove route.  Which was reported as being active yesterday.


Svatove is a major Russian logistics hub along with Kupiansk.  This is all available to you if you look it up.



Kirkhill said:


> While I will freely agree that my BTGs and Bdes are at variance with the map you directed us to, I would suggest that:
> 
> 1 the existence of units in the areas indicated seems to be congruent even if not precise.
> 2 the Izyum pocket contains elements of 1 Guards Tank Army, 20 Combined Arms Army and the 106th Div of the VDV.
> 
> That represents a goodly portion of the Western Military District.



You can freely ignore the situation if it makes you feel better.  But it's not the reality of the situation.  The Russians are commencing a front wide offensive and you think it makes sense for Ukraine to go on a massive offensive ATT?

It doesn't make sense Militarily.



MilEME09 said:


> They could flood the whole valley...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516047579108319239
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515258822113300485



He is a good source of information.  Also has a lovely piece on railroads 😉

The Ukrainians need to succeed on the Defence over the next few weeks before they can even think of transitioning to the Offence.


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Ukraine absolutely needs to defend the pocket between Borova and Slovyansk.



Of that there is no doubt.


Humphrey Bogart said:


> The Russians only took Borova a few weeks ago.  They have now advanced on Lozove.  They have also taken Kreminna.
> 
> It is the Russians who are advancing in that area, not the Ukrainians.
> 
> As for the Forces around Kharkiv.  There are a number of Rivers there and significant obstacles.  It makes no sense at this time to advance on Kupiansk.
> 
> The Russian Forces that are there are in a Blocking position to protect the offensive against Slovyansk
> 
> 
> Svatove is a major Russian logistics hub along with Kupiansk.  This is all available to you if you look it up.
> 
> 
> 
> You can freely ignore the situation if it makes you feel better.  But it's not the reality of the situation.  The Russians are commencing a front wide offensive and you think it makes sense for Ukraine to go on a massive offensive ATT?
> 
> It doesn't make sense Militarily.
> 
> 
> 
> He is a good source of information.  Also has a lovely piece on railroads 😉
> 
> The Ukrainians need to succeed on the Defence over the next few weeks before they can even think of transitioning to the Offence.



My education continues.


----------



## GK .Dundas

It's probably too much to hope for the return of either armoured trains or railway guns?
Mind you , just about anything serms to be possible having seen quad mounted Maxim's.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

GK .Dundas said:


> It's probably too much to hope for the return of either armoured trains or railway guns?
> Mind you , just about anything serms to be possible having seen quad mounted Maxim's.


Russia has Armoured Trains and 30,000 railway troops.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501246098089947138


----------



## The Bread Guy

Those who know, know ....








						Bosnians warn Ukrainians: It's a long journey to justice
					

SARAJEVO, Bosnia (AP) — Regardless of how the Russian war in Ukraine ends, getting justice for human rights abuses suffered during the conflict will inevitably be a long and painful process for those who survive to tell of the atrocities they witnessed.




					apnews.com


----------



## OldSolduer

Kirkhill said:


> Spies being outed.
> 
> Intelligence imprisoned and purged
> 
> General Officers being dismissed, and dying.
> 
> And a plague of heart attacks and suicides.
> 
> Who wouldn't be Russian?
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u6em58


Poor fellows it appears war was too much for them, sad.....


----------



## Kirkhill

Do I think it makes sense militarily?

I think the Ukrainians reported this Course of Action in the last 12 hours or so.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u6fcsq









						Oleksii Arestovych - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




I think there were reports of fighting in Staroverivka within the last 12 hours.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u6bbfy

I think Ukraine reported the liberation of Izyum communities in the last 24 hours.









						Ukrainian Armed Forces liberated several settlements around Izium
					

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have liberated a number of settlements around the town of Izium in Kharkiv region. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				




I think that there were reports of communities between Chuhuiv and Staroverivka being liberated yesterday, Bazaliyivka and Lebiazhe and that Lebiazhe is about 35 km from Staroverivka.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515748800035528709



Again, does it make sense militarily?  I don't know.  

Suppose the Ukrainians think they can hold the Russians in the Izyum valley with the forces they have in place there like they have for the last 3 and half weeks.  

Suppose the Ukrainians assess the main effort as coming down through Svatove.

Suppose the Ukrainians are comfortable that the defence strategy that has worked for them for the last 8 weeks and the 8 years before that will continue to work?

Suppose the Ukrainians feel that the have an adequate uncommitted reserve in the Kharkiv area that is in place to do what the French and the Brits couldn't do to the Germans in 1940 - and slice across their lines of communication. (Arras 1940)

Again, I don't know.

I'm just going with what the Ukrainians are publicly stating and working from there.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516207986993254407


----------



## The Bread Guy

So, are Canadian fighters trapped in Mariupol?








						‘We are ready to fight to the last drop of blood’: As Russia looms over eastern Ukraine, Canadians are said to be among surrounded Mariupol fighters
					

Despite the dire circumstances, it could take more time still before Mariupol’s final military redoubt is overrun.




					www.thestar.com
				



From RUS MoD info-machine 17 Apr statement (safe PDF attached)


> ... In total, according to the Ukrainian servicemen who surrendered, up to 400 foreign mercenaries are now encircled on the territory of Azovstal plant as part of the Ukrainian grouping.  Most of them are citizens of European countries as well as Canada. We previously reported that radio conversations between militants in Mariupol were conducted in six foreign languages. In the case of further resistance, they will all be eliminated ...


----------



## Quirky

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516087197920813061


Kinda like those Aussie F-18s we purchased. Let’s hope the resolution over cold lake isn’t that good….


----------



## daftandbarmy

Some CAF Leo 1 porn for the heritage zipper heads


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Kirkhill said:


> Do I think it makes sense militarily?
> 
> I think the Ukrainians reported this Course of Action in the last 12 hours or so.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u6fcsq
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Oleksii Arestovych - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I think there were reports of fighting in Staroverivka within the last 12 hours.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u6bbfy
> 
> I think Ukraine reported the liberation of Izyum communities in the last 24 hours.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian Armed Forces liberated several settlements around Izium
> 
> 
> The Armed Forces of Ukraine have liberated a number of settlements around the town of Izium in Kharkiv region. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I think that there were reports of communities between Chuhuiv and Staroverivka being liberated yesterday, Bazaliyivka and Lebiazhe and that Lebiazhe is about 35 km from Staroverivka.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515748800035528709
> View attachment 70191
> 
> 
> Again, does it make sense militarily?  I don't know.
> 
> Suppose the Ukrainians think they can hold the Russians in the Izyum valley with the forces they have in place there like they have for the last 3 and half weeks.
> 
> Suppose the Ukrainians assess the main effort as coming down through Svatove.
> 
> Suppose the Ukrainians are comfortable that the defence strategy that has worked for them for the last 8 weeks and the 8 years before that will continue to work?
> 
> Suppose the Ukrainians feel that the have an adequate uncommitted reserve in the Kharkiv area that is in place to do what the French and the Brits couldn't do to the Germans in 1940 - and slice across their lines of communication. (Arras 1940)
> 
> Again, I don't know.
> 
> I'm just going with what the Ukrainians are publicly stating and working from there.


So you're an RRB, awesome!


----------



## MilEME09

And soo it begins..... too big to sweep under the rug


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516236545992400898


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> So you're an RRB, awesome!



Well, would you suggest I know enough to be anything else?


----------



## SupersonicMax

Zipperhead99 said:


> Cue the Queen song "Another one bites the dust"
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia's 40th senior officer reportedly killed in Ukraine
> 
> 
> The Russian military has reportedly lost its 40th senior officer since the invasion of Ukraine began less than two months ago. The Ukrainian side first
> 
> 
> 
> 
> americanmilitarynews.com


That’s one way to deal with HQ bloat!


----------



## MilEME09

SupersonicMax said:


> That’s one way to deal with HQ bloat!


High opportunity for advancement


----------



## daftandbarmy

SupersonicMax said:


> That’s one way to deal with HQ bloat!



The snipers' Happy Hunting Ground ...

How the Russian officer elite is being decimated in Ukraine – 22 generals and commanders who were killed in action​
Following its invasion of Ukraine several weeks ago, Russia's once-feared military has faced fierce resistance.

Some experts believe that Russia may have overreached, as it has struggled to make the quick progress it expected to and has reportedly lost a slew of high-profile military figures.

Six Russian major generals are said to have been killed in the fighting, along with numerous other senior officers, according to reports.

Russian commanders are moving up towards the frontline in an attempt to restore momentum to the invasion of Ukraine according to western officials, said Gordon Corera, a BBC security correspondent, in a tweet.









						How the Russian officer elite is being decimated in Ukraine – 27 generals and commanders who were killed in action
					

Since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, it's reported that Putin's army has lost some of its most experienced senior commanders.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## MilEME09

daftandbarmy said:


> The snipers' Happy Hunting Ground ...
> 
> How the Russian officer elite is being decimated in Ukraine – 22 generals and commanders who were killed in action​
> Following its invasion of Ukraine several weeks ago, Russia's once-feared military has faced fierce resistance.
> 
> Some experts believe that Russia may have overreached, as it has struggled to make the quick progress it expected to and has reportedly lost a slew of high-profile military figures.
> 
> Six Russian major generals are said to have been killed in the fighting, along with numerous other senior officers, according to reports.
> 
> Russian commanders are moving up towards the frontline in an attempt to restore momentum to the invasion of Ukraine according to western officials, said Gordon Corera, a BBC security correspondent, in a tweet.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How the Russian officer elite is being decimated in Ukraine – 27 generals and commanders who were killed in action
> 
> 
> Since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, it's reported that Putin's army has lost some of its most experienced senior commanders.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.businessinsider.com


Slightly off, Russian Doctrine is very centralized command. Nothing happens until the general says so, so when everything stalls, the Jr officers don't know what to do except call higher, so these officers go to the front due to poor comms, to sort it all out, and bang dead.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Guess we will see how well our towed artillery will do in a conventional conflict



			Latest U.S. weapons assistance arrives in Ukraine


----------



## ModlrMike

A bloody war or a sickly season is supposed to be a Naval aphorism.


----------



## Maxman1

MilEME09 said:


> Partisan activity increasing in occupied areas
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515354473299861507


I guess John has a long mustache.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Team USSR 2.0 gives Azovstal plant defenders one more chance (from safe PDF - attached - of RUS MoD statement this morning) ...


> ... Taking into account the catastrophic situation at the Azovstal metallurgical plant, as well as guided by purely humane principles, the Russian Armed Forces once again offer the militants of nationalist battalions and foreign mercenaries from 12:00 (Moscow time)* on April 19, 2022 to cease any hostilities and lay down their arms. All who lay down their weapons are guaranteed the preservation of life.
> 
> For the practical implementation of the measures of this next humanitarian operation, the following algorithm of actions is provided:
> 
> from 13:00 (Moscow time)**, continuous communication is established between the Russian and Ukrainian sides for the mutual exchange of information;
> from 13:30 (Moscow time)***, the militants of nationalist battalions and foreign mercenaries – on the one hand, the Russian Armed Forces together with the military formations of the Donetsk People's Republic – on the other hand, declare a ceasefire and guarantee its strict observance. The actual beginning of the ceasefire by both sides is indicated by the raising of flags: from the Russian side – red, from the Ukrainian side – white around the perimeter of Azovstal. In addition, the fact that the parties are ready to introduce a ceasefire is confirmed by all communication channels;
> from 14:00 to 16:00 (Moscow time)**** – the exit of all Ukrainian armed units and foreign mercenaries without exception, without any weapons and ammunition.
> Once again, we call on the official authorities of Kiev to show prudence, to give appropriate instructions to the militants about ending senseless resistance and leaving the hotbed of resistance. However, realizing that they will not receive such orders and commands from the Kiev authorities, we urge them to make such a
> decision on their own and lay down their arms.
> 
> In addition, we appeal to all AFU servicemen and foreign mercenaries - with the attitude of the Kiev authorities, an inglorious fate awaits all of you. Do not test your fate, but take the only right decision to end hostilities and lay down your arms now, wherever your "curators" force you to fight for the ideas of Nazism.  The Russian Federation guarantees to each of you the preservation of life and compliance with all the norms of the Geneva Convention on the treatment of prisoners of war, as has already happened with the AFU servicemen who previously surrendered in Mariupol  ...


* - 0500 Eastern
** - 0600E
*** - 0630E
**** - 0700-0900E


----------



## The Bread Guy

RUS strategic narrative, about - TURN! (via RUS state media)








						Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: New Phase of Special Operation in Ukraine Has Begun
					

The Russian foreign minister stressed that the Ukrainian people should decide their fate for themselves.




					sputniknews.com
				



OP edit to add screen capture from archived article link - where the headline changed pretty quickly after I first shared it


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516341781331419136


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516366815848542213


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516367015270916099


----------



## Good2Golf

Sounds like the FAB-3000M-46…


I wonder if the Tu-22M3s will fly low enough for a Starstreak up the wazoo?


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516407655866191880


----------



## CBH99

Good2Golf said:


> Sounds like the FAB-3000M-46…
> View attachment 70198
> 
> I wonder if the Ty-22M3s will fly low enough for a Starstreak up the wazoo?


This is a great time for Polish MiG-29’s to get stolen and suddenly reappear over Ukraine, being flown by Ukrainian pilots.  

If rumours are true and there were nuclear weapons onboard the flag ship, and IComm chatter about razing an entire city - I wouldn’t rule out the use of tactical nuclear weapons.  

(Reinforced by Russia’s policy towards their use.)


----------



## daftandbarmy

The Russians, or the Russian commanders, sound more desperate than the Azov Brigade 


New ultimatum for Ukrainian forces in Mariupol’s Azovstal plant​
Russia’s defence ministry has set another deadline for Ukrainian soldiers in the strategic southeastern city of Mariupol to surrender, saying the lives of the troops inside a steelworks will be spared if they stop what it called “senseless resistance”.

“All who lay down their arms are guaranteed to remain alive,” the ministry said in a statement on Tuesday, adding that troops would be able to withdraw from the steel plant between 2pm and 4pm Moscow time (11:00-13:00 GMT) “without exception, without any weapons and without ammunition”.

A similar surrender-or-die demand went unanswered on Sunday, a day after the Russian army claimed to have “completely cleared” the city.

Eduard Basurin, a spokesman for the Russia-backed separatists in the Donbas region, said on Tuesday assault groups had moved into the Azovstal steel plant in a bid to uproot the Ukrainian troops.









						New ultimatum for Ukrainian forces in Mariupol’s Azovstal plant
					

Russia says it opened corridor for Ukrainian forces to leave steel plant in key southeastern Ukrainian city.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516407655866191880


I think that chart is completely out of whack. Poland, Slovakia, Romania, Hungary and Moldova have all taken in massive numbers of Refugees, the 'funding' of these Refugees is not taken into account in terms of 'helping' Ukraine financially, which should be. There are huge costs in involved in the housing, feeding, medical care, education accommodation, psychological services, etc, etc, etc of 4+million people.


----------



## Skysix

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516407655866191880


More useful would be a per capita chart.


----------



## KevinB

Skysix said:


> More useful would be a per capita chart.


Why?   It does not capture the scope of assistance though it may make smaller countries feel good.


----------



## AlexanderM

Skysix said:


> More useful would be a per capita chart.


I thought Canada recently announced another $1.5B? $1.0B in a loan and $500M in military assistance. I guess it was after March 27th, but would make us look quite a bit better on that chart.


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Didn't they also announce 5 years ago to do something about skyrocketing house prices??

Maybe it's a chart of actual doing, and not a chart of announcing what you plan to do......someday.


----------



## Czech_pivo

AlexanderM said:


> I thought Canada recently announced another $1.5B? $1.0B in a loan and $500M in military assistance.


Chart only captures up to March 27th.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> Didn't they also announce 5 years ago to do something about skyrocketing house prices??
> 
> Maybe it's a chart of actual doing, and not a chart of announcing what you plan to do......someday.


Remember - "Words, not Deeds"


----------



## Skysix

KevinB said:


> Why?   It does not capture the scope of assistance though it may make smaller countries feel good.


Taking 50 cents of your taxpayer dollar in a small country vs taking 0.5 cents of your taxpayer dollar in a big country is why. Means little countries support is far deeper if government is willing to risk its re-election with that much of a future tax hike.

Think of it like this (numbers totally fictional for illustrative purposes). Elon musk hires a call girl at $1,000,000 an hour. Pocket change, a minutes worth of interest on his savings. Joe 6-pack hires one at $100 an hour. He has to work a whole shift to earn that much. Joe's determination to get laid at the cost of his other living expenses is far more pressing than Elon's.

And yes, the harder to calculate cost of taking in refugees (actual not promised and yet to happen) is a non-trivial omission. One that kinda makes the chart worthless.


----------



## Underway

AlexanderM said:


> I thought Canada recently announced another $1.5B? $1.0B in a loan and $500M in military assistance. I guess it was after March 27th, but would make us look quite a bit better on that chart.


The chart ends at March 27th.  We are 3 weeks later. Useless information as it's totally out of date.

Edit: posted that before I realized that @Czech_pivo already had.  Sorry for the repeat.


----------



## Kirkhill

19.04.2022 11:12








						Ukrainian paratroopers destroy Russian motor rifle brigade
					

Ukrainian paratroopers destroyed a separate motor rifle brigade of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation from the city of Tomsk. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				





19.04.2022 08:40








						War update: Ukrainian forces repulse seven Russian attacks in Donetsk, Luhansk regions
					

In Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Ukraine's defenders repulsed seven enemy attacks, destroying ten main battle tanks, eighteen armored units, and eight vehicles, an artillery system, and a mortar. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				





19.04.2022 08:00








						All Russian Marine brigades suffer casualties in Ukraine - CIT
					

Analysts with Conflict Intelligence Team report that all Russian Marine brigades sustained casualties in Ukraine. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Kirkhill

Comments.










						War update: Ukrainian forces repulse seven Russian attacks in Donetsk, Luhansk regions
					

In Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Ukraine's defenders repulsed seven enemy attacks, destroying ten main battle tanks, eighteen armored units, and eight vehicles, an artillery system, and a mortar. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				






> More weapons and military equipment is being sent to Ukraine from the central and eastern regions of Russia. Support units are being deployed along with the combat ones.
> 
> Logistical centers are being deployed, as well as equipment repair field bases.
> 
> The invaders continue to partially block the city of Kharkiv. To strengthen air defenses of their offensive group, the Russians are transferring additional anti-aircraft missile divisions of short-range surface-to-air missile system "Tor" (SA-15 Gauntlet) to Kharkiv region.
> 
> At the same time, mobile long range surface-to-air missile divisions of S-400s (SA-21 Growler) and S-300s (SA-10 Grumble) were deployed in the areas of Russia’s Belgorod region bordering on Ukraine to cover the main command and control points, as well as the rear.



Russians bucking up their logistics and their protection.



> In the Izium direction, the Russians are conducting offensive operations on the left bank of the Siversky Donets River. To support the offensive n this direction, the enemy created a system of main and reserve firing positions for rocket and barrel artillery.



Anticipating or managing Ukrainian Counter-Batttery efforts?



> In the Donetsk and Tavria directions, the Russians intensified offensive operations along the entire line of contact.
> 
> The main efforts are focused on penetrating Ukraine’s defenses in Luhansk and Donetsk regions, as well as establishing full control over the city of Mariupol. In Zaporozhia region, the occupying troops are amassing forces in certain areas.



Attempting to engage the entire line of contact simultaneously and preparing to launch multiple local efforts in the Zaporizhia district.




> In the South Buh direction, the Russians focus on advancing to the administrative border of Kherson region. In order to improve the tactical situation, the Russian occupiers are conducting offensive operations in the area of Oleksandrivka. They also continue shelling of civilian objects in Mykolaiv.



Ukrainians back on the defense in the Kherson district.  Apparently the Russians had been pushed back within the Kherson Oblast borders and are now trying to reclaim lost ground.


----------



## Remius

daftandbarmy said:


> The Russians, or the Russian commanders, sound more desperate than the Azov Brigade
> 
> 
> New ultimatum for Ukrainian forces in Mariupol’s Azovstal plant​
> Russia’s defence ministry has set another deadline for Ukrainian soldiers in the strategic southeastern city of Mariupol to surrender, saying the lives of the troops inside a steelworks will be spared if they stop what it called “senseless resistance”.
> 
> “All who lay down their arms are guaranteed to remain alive,” the ministry said in a statement on Tuesday, adding that troops would be able to withdraw from the steel plant between 2pm and 4pm Moscow time (11:00-13:00 GMT) “without exception, without any weapons and without ammunition”.
> 
> A similar surrender-or-die demand went unanswered on Sunday, a day after the Russian army claimed to have “completely cleared” the city.
> 
> Eduard Basurin, a spokesman for the Russia-backed separatists in the Donbas region, said on Tuesday assault groups had moved into the Azovstal steel plant in a bid to uproot the Ukrainian troops.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New ultimatum for Ukrainian forces in Mariupol’s Azovstal plant
> 
> 
> Russia says it opened corridor for Ukrainian forces to leave steel plant in key southeastern Ukrainian city.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.aljazeera.com


We all know what Russian promises and words are worth.


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> Slightly off, Russian Doctrine is very centralized command. Nothing happens until the general says so, so when everything stalls, the Jr officers don't know what to do except call higher, so these officers go to the front due to poor comms, to sort it all out, and bang dead.



Sounds alot like my last few years in the CAF, as well


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> Comments.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> War update: Ukrainian forces repulse seven Russian attacks in Donetsk, Luhansk regions
> 
> 
> In Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Ukraine's defenders repulsed seven enemy attacks, destroying ten main battle tanks, eighteen armored units, and eight vehicles, an artillery system, and a mortar. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russians bucking up their logistics and their protection.
> 
> 
> 
> Anticipating or managing Ukrainian Counter-Batttery efforts?
> 
> 
> 
> Attempting to engage the entire line of contact simultaneously and preparing to launch multiple local efforts in the Zaporizhia district.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainians back on the defense in the Kherson district.  Apparently the Russians had been pushed back within the Kherson Oblast borders and are now trying to reclaim lost ground.




Do the Russians understand the concept of "Focus"?  They still seem to act as if they are working with Stalin's Steamroller with millions of conscripts to sacrifice.

In fact their force looks more like this:



> According to the available updated information, the losses of the 126th Coast Guard Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet are up to 75%. The 810th Independent Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet has 158 KIAs, about 500 WIAs, and 70 MIAs.
> 
> A significant number of servicemen of these brigades filed reports, refusing to participate in the so-called "special operation."



And those are some of their better troops and units.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516393082148773892

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516421996015403018


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516283283184754688


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516306309523644421


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516153966639431690


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Honestly, these men have more fortitude pouring out their nose than most of the leaders of NATO. I pray their safety and continued success at holding the line.


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> Comments.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> War update: Ukrainian forces repulse seven Russian attacks in Donetsk, Luhansk regions
> 
> 
> In Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Ukraine's defenders repulsed seven enemy attacks, destroying ten main battle tanks, eighteen armored units, and eight vehicles, an artillery system, and a mortar. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russians bucking up their logistics and their protection.
> 
> 
> 
> Anticipating or managing Ukrainian Counter-Batttery efforts?
> 
> 
> 
> Attempting to engage the entire line of contact simultaneously and preparing to launch multiple local efforts in the Zaporizhia district.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainians back on the defense in the Kherson district.  Apparently the Russians had been pushed back within the Kherson Oblast borders and are now trying to reclaim lost ground.


Russia is pushing on all fronts, but they can't do that for long as I doubt they solved their logistics issues, and bring on the offensive, their casualties will climb.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516462146405679108

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516463834092949505


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516393082148773892
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516421996015403018


12 days since the budget here and not a peep on what the 500$ million allocated for military aid will be spent on. I mean, what's the thought process on this?

1) Attempt to buy 500$ CAD million of old Soviet equipment from some non-European country and then try to ship it to Poland so it can cross in Ukraine?

2) Create an open tender process to purchase some 3rd party armoured cars/vehicles from GDLS or Roshel?  

The timeline on that would be 6+months min to produce the equipment - perfect case of a day late and a dollar short
3) Roll the money towards some other non-military equipment, maybe maple syrup, Lululemon clothes, beavertails or Canadian Tire gift cards?

4) Quietly shelve the idea and not spend a single penny on this?


----------



## Spencer100

4


----------



## Spencer100

but 3 is  a good option.


----------



## Underway

Czech_pivo said:


> 12 days since the budget here and not a peep on what the 500$ million allocated for military aid will be spent on. I mean, what's the thought process on this?
> 
> 1) Attempt to buy 500$ CAD million of old Soviet equipment from some non-European country and then try to ship it to Poland so it can cross in Ukraine?
> 
> 2) Create an open tender process to purchase some 3rd party armoured cars/vehicles from GDLS or Roshel?
> 
> The timeline on that would be 6+months min to produce the equipment - perfect case of a day late and a dollar short
> 3) Roll the money towards some other non-military equipment, maybe maple syrup, Lululemon clothes, beavertails or Canadian Tire gift cards?
> 
> 4) Quietly shelve the idea and not spend a single penny on this?


You missed the actual thing.  Give the money to Ukraine in direct foreign aid for them to spend.  That's likely how it's going.  Ukraine is begging, borrowing, or stealing any cash they can get their hands on to fund their war effort.  Just giving them $500 million is better than trying to spend it for them.


----------



## brihard

Underway said:


> You missed the actual thing.  Give the money to Ukraine in direct foreign aid for them to spend.  That's likely how it's going.  Ukraine is begging, borrowing, or stealing any cash they can get their hands on to fund their war effort.  Just giving them $500 million is better than trying to spend it for them.


$500 mil in Rheinmetall gift certificates?


----------



## Czech_pivo

Underway said:


> You missed the actual thing.  Give the money to Ukraine in direct foreign aid for them to spend.  That's likely how it's going.  Ukraine is begging, borrowing, or stealing any cash they can get their hands on to fund their war effort.  Just giving them $500 million is better than trying to spend it for them.


I did think about that option, but I chose not to list it as I don't think they will actually go this route.  Exposes the Liberals to much risk on saying how the money was spent.


----------



## McG

Czech_pivo said:


> I did think about that option, but I chose not to list it as I don't think they will actually go this route.  Exposes the Liberals to much risk on saying how the money was spent.


Yet, it is exactly how foreign aid is often done.


----------



## Underway

Czech_pivo said:


> I did think about that option, but I chose not to list it as I don't think they will actually go this route.  Exposes the Liberals to much risk on saying how the money was spent.


I'm thinking that they will get a pass on that at this point.  No one is going to argue that whatever Ukraine spends its money on right now isn't the right thing.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Underway said:


> I'm thinking that they will get a pass on that at this point.  No one is going to argue that whatever Ukraine spends its money on right now isn't the right thing.


Lets be frank: Ukraine would probably have a better time taking that money and buying military equipment themselves. I'm sure Zelensky has noted our track record with military procurement.


----------



## Spencer100

Czech_pivo said:


> I did think about that option, but I chose not to list it as I don't think they will actually go this route.  Exposes the Liberals to much risk on saying how the money was spent.


Was there not a note about the government buying vehicles from Roshel Inc.








						Canada Sends Senator Armored Vehicles to Ukraine
					

Ukrainian Armed Forces are expected to receive new armoured vehicles from Canada, according to The National Post.      On April 11, The National Post reported that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has authorized to send $500 million in weapons, including armoured personnel carriers, to...




					www.globaldefensecorp.com


----------



## McG

Spencer100 said:


> Was there not a note about the government buying vehicles from Roshel Inc.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada Sends Senator Armored Vehicles to Ukraine
> 
> 
> Ukrainian Armed Forces are expected to receive new armoured vehicles from Canada, according to The National Post.      On April 11, The National Post reported that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has authorized to send $500 million in weapons, including armoured personnel carriers, to...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.globaldefensecorp.com


Yes, the armoured police trucks were already announced. They are separate from (in addition to) the $500 million.


----------



## GR66

Underway said:


> I'm thinking that they will get a pass on that at this point.  No one is going to argue that whatever Ukraine spends its money on right now isn't the right thing.


Also, this way will probably pose the least risk of corruption.  Ukraine will come down very hard on any war profiteers that try to feather their own bed with any of that money.


----------



## Underway

rmc_wannabe said:


> Lets be frank: Ukraine would probably have a better time taking that money and buying military equipment themselves. I'm sure Zelensky has noted our track record with military procurement.


He's noticed our track record in training his troops that's for sure.  Ukrainians in varied stories from various sources specifically thank Canadians for teaching them urban warfare among other things.  Canada is good at training at the individual skills and development level.  All things considered, NATO training has kept them alive to this point. But that was the prep work, the page has turned, and now they need logistics.


----------



## Remius

Underway said:


> He's noticed our track record in training his troops that's for sure.  Ukrainians in varied stories from various sources specifically thank Canadians for teaching them urban warfare among other things.  Canada is good at training at the individual skills and development level.  All things considered, NATO training has kept them alive to this point. But that was the prep work, the page has turned, and now they need logistics.


Apparently our sniper program has been paying off as swell…


----------



## YZT580

McG said:


> Yes, the armoured police trucks were already announced. They are separate from (in addition to) the $500 million.


Are they available to be shipped and are we in a position to airlift them in 'cause they need them now, not coming off the production line six months from now.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516412649298350088


----------



## KevinB

Not a lot squawking today in the AO.


Italian GlobalHawk just started squawking as it descended to 53k - out of the BlackSea


----------



## KevinB

Lot of Triple 7's headed to Ukraine ---

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516499450465820682


----------



## KevinB

More on US, UK and Canadian Artillery contributions to Ukraine

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516498067083702274


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> Lot of Triple 7's headed to Ukraine ---
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516499450465820682


I think everyone in the West is starting to see this conflict devolve into a war of attrition. I see a lot of parallels with the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s starting to form.

The guns might be a good indicator that things will be a bit more stationary, but highly kinetic, in the coming months.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Did Germany change their mind on sending vehicles or weapons?


----------



## Good2Golf

Underway said:


> I'm thinking that they will get a pass on that at this point.  No one is going to argue that whatever Ukraine spends its money on right now isn't the right thing.


Unless they use WE Charity as the distributor of said funds…


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516503650939588611


----------



## KevinB

Ukraine war: Kyiv's allies pledge more weapons to help win war
					

Leaders pledge to send more artillery and other weapons as Russia launches a fresh offensive in eastern Ukraine.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## KevinB

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61136997?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=625ed17b77811a20d37c8f97%26Czechs%20offer%20Ukrainian%20tank%20repair%20shop%262022-04-19T17%3A56%3A33.848Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:69d659cf-d58c-40a3-8177-b8361dc27d22&pinned_post_asset_id=625ed17b77811a20d37c8f97&pinned_post_type=share


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Lot of Triple 7's headed to Ukraine ---
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516499450465820682


A bit more from our own MSM


			https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-sanctions-putin-daughters-1.6423273
		









						Canada to send heavy artillery weapons to Ukraine, Trudeau pledges
					

The Prime Minister’s announcement came hours after he, U.S. President Joe Biden and other allied leaders discussed imposing further economic pain on Russia and vowed to provide more weaponry and aid to Ukraine




					www.theglobeandmail.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

The Bread Guy said:


> Remember this guy?
> 
> Intriguing, this, if true ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian intelligence: FSB arrested war criminal "DPR" Basurin for disclosing data on a chemical attack
> 
> 
> Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense (GUR) reported that FSB officers detained Kremlin "DPR" warlord Eduard Basurin for disclosing plans for the use of chemical weapons by Russian forces in Mariupol. “It was established that after talking with the FSB officers...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> olgalautman.substack.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian Intelligence: spokesman of DPR Defense Ministry has been detained by Russian security services
> 
> 
> The spokesman of the Defense Ministry of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), Eduard Basurin, has been detained by Russian military. Russian security services began reprisals against commanders in the occupied Donbas because of unsuccessful "special military operation". Eduard Basurin...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> uawire.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> FSB abduct Russian proxy leader who ‘let slip Russia’s plans for chemical attack on Mariupol’ – Ukraine intel
> 
> 
> Russia’s Federal Security Service, or FSB, the successor of the KGB, has abducted Eduard Basurin, one of the leaders of the Kremlin’s proxy forces in occupied Donetsk Oblast, the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry reported on April 16.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> english.nv.ua


In case you were worried about this guy, he appears to still be spokes-personing for the Donetsk rebel info-machine








						Russian coalition kills 67 Ukrainian gunmen over 24 hours
					

Donetsk, Apr 19 - DAN. Donetsk People’s Republic militiamen supported by Russian armed forces have killed 67 Ukrainian gunmen and destroyed two enemy




					dan-news.info


----------



## The Bread Guy

Jarnhamar said:


> Did Germany change their mind on sending vehicles or weapons?


Right now, UKR media's saying they're still figuring it out 








						Germany reviewing list of weapons requested by Ukraine to find out what can be delivered quickly – Scholz
					

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that Germany is studying the list of weapons requested by Ukraine and plans to "find out what can be supplied quickly."




					en.interfax.com.ua


----------



## Czech_pivo

I 


The Bread Guy said:


> A bit more from our own MSM
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-sanctions-putin-daughters-1.6423273
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada to send heavy artillery weapons to Ukraine, Trudeau pledges
> 
> 
> The Prime Minister’s announcement came hours after he, U.S. President Joe Biden and other allied leaders discussed imposing further economic pain on Russia and vowed to provide more weaponry and aid to Ukraine
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theglobeandmail.com


I guess someone in the Liberal Party read my question from earlier today about 12 days going by since the Budget and the pledge for 500$ million in military aid and zero action and  voila, someone decided to act on it, lol.

Anything else you guys want me to write about, lol?


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> A bit more from our own MSM
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-sanctions-putin-daughters-1.6423273
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada to send heavy artillery weapons to Ukraine, Trudeau pledges
> 
> 
> The Prime Minister’s announcement came hours after he, U.S. President Joe Biden and other allied leaders discussed imposing further economic pain on Russia and vowed to provide more weaponry and aid to Ukraine
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theglobeandmail.com


Does anyone know off the top of their head what weapons (if any) France has sent or has pledged to send to Ukraine?  I feel that they need to be call out in addition to D-land.


----------



## MilEME09

Are these new 777s or are we sending our stock?


----------



## McG

Czech_pivo said:


> I guess someone in the Liberal Party read my question from earlier today about 12 days going by since the Budget and the pledge for 500$ million in military aid and zero action and voila, someone decided to act on it, lol.


Nah. Biden hosted a phone call today with several NATO leaders, and most came out of the call with new commitments. I suspect nations were told to do more.


----------



## Weinie

MilEME09 said:


> Are these new 777s or are we sending our stock?


From our stock


----------



## Czech_pivo

McG said:


> Nah. Biden hosted a phone call today with several NATO leaders, and most came out of the call with new commitments. I suspect nations were told to do more.


So Biden provided a list to those on the phone prior to the call and said, 'read this out aloud when your name is called'. Is that what happened?  If so, I'm willing to drop a line or two to Biden.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Weinie said:


> From our stock


So these, minus the ones we just sent to Latvia means we have nothing left, lol?


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> So Biden provided a list to those on the phone prior to the call and said, 'read this out aloud when your name is called'. Is that what happened?  If so, I'm willing to drop a line or two to Biden.


Pretty much.


----------



## Weinie

Czech_pivo said:


> So these, minus the ones we just sent to Latvia means we have nothing left, lol?


I have heard that we will not send all of them.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> So these, minus the ones we just sent to Latvia means we have nothing left, lol?


It’s easier this way I’m told…


----------



## KevinB

Weinie said:


> I have heard that we will not send all of them.


Need one to look at for reminiscing I guess


----------



## Weinie

KevinB said:


> Need one to look at for reminiscing I guess


Or to put on display at the entrance of an obscure Base


----------



## IKnowNothing

KevinB said:


> Pretty much.


One can dream that it's the first domino in "send x to Ukraine, get Y subsidized from US stock"


----------



## Czech_pivo

Weinie said:


> I have heard that we will not send all of them.


Well, the cupboard will be close to bare on yet another piece of kit once we send over whatever the final number is, coupled with what is already in Latvia.  Figure we'll be around 40-55% of what we had earlier in the week.


----------



## MilEME09

Weinie said:


> I have heard that we will not send all of them.


Ingenious idea really, the arty branch wants SPGs, so if we give Ukraine the M777, we have no guns, you then sole source UOR either the M109 or Pzh2000. Win win, bloody brilliant.

Doubt that's actually it


----------



## Weinie

MilEME09 said:


> *Ingenious idea really,* the arty branch wants SPGs, so if we give Ukraine the M777, we have no guns, you then sole source UOR either the M109 or Pzh2000. Win win, bloody brilliant.
> 
> Doubt that's actually it


Maybe a "cunning plan"


----------



## Underway

McG said:


> Nah. Biden hosted a phone call today with several NATO leaders, and most came out of the call with new commitments. I suspect nations were told to do more.



Normally in those sorts of calls, the groundwork has been done in the background first. It makes sense that the US, UK, and Canada all donate the same artillery pieces together in coordination.  Stops orphan "fleet" problems where Canada donates a single battery of guns for example and provides for a significant number of similar pieces that make it worth it.



Weinie said:


> Maybe a "cunning plan"


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Weinie said:


> Or to put on display at the entrance of an obscure Base


Nah. Permanent display in the newly renamed Canadian Conflict Musem. A relic of those awful bygone days when we had to maintain a combat capable force, rather than using our influence and bringing people to the table 😉


----------



## McG

The part we probably won’t see announced is the ammo natures that are going.  Probably lots of HE and some Excalibur. I hope SMArt 155, BONUS, and (if any are still on shelves) SADARM. Maybe Copperhead (especially if UAV can do the target designation) and AT SCATMINE.


----------



## Weinie

rmc_wannabe said:


> Nah. Permanent display in the newly renamed Canadian Conflict Musem. A relic of those awful bygone days when we had to maintain a combat capable force, rather than *using our influence and bringing people to the table* 😉


I believe that is called "convening."


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516435083648978945


----------



## brihard

Underway said:


> Normally in those sorts of calls, the groundwork has been done in the background first. It makes sense that the US, UK, and Canada all donate the same artillery pieces together in coordination.  Stops orphan "fleet" problems where Canada donates a single battery of guns for example and provides for a significant number of similar pieces that make it worth it.


Makes sense. The biggest reason we retain that kit is in case we ever have to fight Russia. So it’s logical to give it to the guys currently fighting Russia, and making it less likely that we ourselves will need to fight Russia later, during the service life of said little.

Expend the equipment to do what the equipment is intended to be able to do, and renew inventory with new and more suitable equipment- particularly given the incredible opportunity currently being presented to assess what those needs and suitable equipment are.


----------



## AlexanderM

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516512124687769604


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukrinform Updates


19.04.2022 23:44









						Russia gathers almost all combat-ready forces of its army in Ukraine and near its borders - Zelensky
					

The Russian Federation has accumulated almost all its combat-ready forces on the territory of Ukraine and near its borders. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				




19.04.2022 23:22









						Number of enemy attacks on Luhansk region growing
					

The number of enemy attacks have increased in Luhansk region. Six enemy planes are bombing cities, destroying residential areas. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				




19.04.2022 22:44









						Ukrainian defenders repulse ten enemy attacks in JFO area
					

Ukrainian defenders successfully repulsed 10 attacks by Russian invaders in the Joint Forces Operation (JFO) area in Donetsk and Luhansk regions. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				




19.04.2022 21:14









						Armed Forces repulse three attacks, kill 30 invaders in eastern Ukraine
					

The Armed Forces of Ukraine repulsed three attacks by Russian invaders in eastern Ukraine. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				




19.04.2022 18:40









						Russian army goes on offensive in Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk regions of Ukraine
					

The Russian armed forces intensified offensive operations in eastern Ukraine. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				




19.04.2022 14:55









						Positional battles ongoing in Rubizhne and Popasna, enemy suffering losses
					

In the towns of Rubizhne and Popasna in Luhansk region, positional battles are currently taking place, but the Russian invaders are unable to do anything. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> Ingenious idea really, the arty branch wants SPGs, so if we give Ukraine the M777, we have no guns, you then sole source UOR either the M109 or Pzh2000. Win win, bloody brilliant.
> 
> Doubt that's actually it


50-60 of them would be a decent beginning, either one.

Wonder if we could hold off and buy some M1299’s instead. Only 2-3yrs down the line, easily meets our procurement process, might even be a bit fast for us.


----------



## TacticalTea

brihard said:


> The biggest reason we retain that kit is in case we ever have to fight Russia. So it’s logical to give it to the guys currently fighting Russia, and making it less likely that we ourselves will need to fight Russia later


This exactly. They're fighting (their, but also) NATO's war out there. It's in our best interest.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Weinie said:


> Maybe a "cunning plan"


... from a cunning array of stunts, perchance?


----------



## Spencer100

brihard said:


> Makes sense. The biggest reason we retain that kit is in case we ever have to fight Russia. So it’s logical to give it to the guys currently fighting Russia, and making it less likely that we ourselves will need to fight Russia later, during the service life of said little.
> 
> Expend the equipment to do what the equipment is intended to be able to do, and renew inventory with new and more suitable equipment- particularly given the incredible opportunity currently being presented to assess what those needs and suitable equipment are.



Or more importantly replace with nothing.  The plan (TM) of a disarmed Canada moves ever forward.


----------



## The Bread Guy

RUS says Mariupol defenders'll get one more chance to leave nicely (from RUS state media)


----------



## Spencer100

AlexanderM said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516512124687769604



OK I listened to this live.  He never said fighter planes.  He said platforms.  Could helicopters, could transports or fighters.  He was being very vague on purpose.   He did say the Ukraine AF has more working aircraft this week than last.


----------



## WLSC

brihard said:


> Makes sense. The biggest reason we retain that kit is in case we ever have to fight Russia. So it’s logical to give it to the guys currently fighting Russia, and making it less likely that we ourselves will need to fight Russia later, during the service life of said little.
> 
> Expend the equipment to do what the equipment is intended to be able to do, and renew inventory with new and more suitable equipment- particularly given the incredible opportunity currently being presented to assess what those needs and suitable equipment are.


Except, I’m not expecting new kit (Even if I wish it really hard).  Good old 105mm will be deemed mooooore than adequate 😔


----------



## Prairie canuck

MilEME09 said:


> Ingenious idea really, the arty branch wants SPGs, so if we give Ukraine the M777, we have no guns, you then sole source UOR either the M109 or Pzh2000. Win win, bloody brilliant.
> 
> Doubt that's actually it


Would the Archer MAS from Sweden be a good compromise of mobility and road speed?


----------



## Czech_pivo

McG said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516435083648978945


Skoda - repairing tanks since 1939. 

I had a chance to tour their facilities in Mlada Boleslav in 1995, around the time that Volkswagen bought them up. The general feeling was, ‘Great, the Germans are back.’


----------



## The Bread Guy

The Bread Guy said:


> RUS says Mariupol defenders'll get one more chance to leave nicely (from RUS state media)
> View attachment 70212


Here's the RUS MoD's offer (attached)


----------



## TacticalTea

According to this, #13, behind Germany, ahead of Finland.
The latter has an excuse. Germany and Canada do not.
I have not verified those numbers or their source.


----------



## Spencer100

Czech_pivo said:


> Skoda - repairing tanks since 1939.
> 
> I had a chance to tour their facilities in Mlada Boleslav in 1995, around the time that Volkswagen bought them up. The general feeling was, ‘Great, the Germans are back.’



In all truth Skoda has done well under VW. Compare it with SEAT.  The Spanish brand has not fared as well.  Plus are the Skoda defense works still part of VW?  If they were not spun out earlier they would have gone to Traton when that was spilt from VW.


----------



## Kirkhill

20.04.2022 01:29









						Russian troops launch a massive offensive in Zaporizhzhia region
					

Russian troops launched a massive offensive in Zaporizhzhia region. The Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration urges locals to evacuate from frontline settlements. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				




April 18, 2022






						Серед військових РФ зростає кількість офіційних «відмовників»
					






					gur.gov.ua
				





150 MRD is one of the formations that has been hammering on Mariupol for the last 8 weeks.  It is also positioned to launch the offensive into Zaporozhzhia mentioned above.



> among the "contractors" in the units of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Army of the Southern Military District of the RF Armed Forces, the number of refusals reached 60-70% of the total number of personnel.



150 MRD is not the only troubled formation in the area.



> According to the available updated information, the losses of the 126th Coast Guard Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet are up to 75%. The 810th Independent Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet has 158 KIAs, about 500 WIAs, and 70 MIAs.



But back to the 01:29 report 



> Deputy commanders of military-political units and FSB officers "work" with servicemen who refused to go to Ukraine. People are persuaded to take part in offensive operations. In case of repeated refusal, they threaten to kill relatives.
> 
> Those who failed to be persuaded are recorded in a personal file: "*He refused to take part in a special military operation on the territory of the People's Republic of China*, the Democratic People's Republic of Belarus and Ukraine."



I wonder what that was all about.   Refusing to serve in China?


----------



## AlexanderM

Spencer100 said:


> OK I listened to this live.  He never said fighter planes.  He said platforms.  Could helicopters, could transports or fighters.  He was being very vague on purpose.   He did say the Ukraine AF has more working aircraft this week than last.


I would expect them to be vague, not wanting to aggravate Russia, here are some additional sources, it may have been verified off camera, I really don't know. Or the sources I've quoted may have misunderstood something.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516536975699980303

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516528734601465861


----------



## McG

Watch for the turret after secondary explosion.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516465774948495361


----------



## Czech_pivo

Spencer100 said:


> In all truth Skoda has done well under VW. Compare it with SEAT.  The Spanish brand has not fared as well.  Plus are the Skoda defense works still part of VW?  If they were not spun out earlier they would have gone to Traton when that was spilt from VW.


I completely agree. I would buy a Skoda if they sold them here. I’ve booked myself one while in Dubrovnik this July, if all goes well. I love driving the Octavia.
Skoda - Mlada Boleslav vs Plzen - they’ve split so many times over the last 25yrs, I don’t know where the various parts have gone. Skoda Works I still think makes railcars and such. Pretty sure they bided on a number of contracts in Toronto for subway/streetcars but came up short.


----------



## TacticalTea

Pentagon Spokesman Kirby on Ukraine fighter aircraft capability additions


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516517589924593665
And more words to make everyone feel good:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516466293330923526
And more!

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516539328452870153
A tangential positive side-effect of this war is that I am receiving more and more munitions in the rhetorical battle against the idea that America is not a force for good in the world.


----------



## Spencer100

AlexanderM said:


> I would expect them to be vague, not wanting to aggravate Russia, here are some additional sources, it may have been verified off camera, I really don't know. Or the sources I've quoted may have misunderstood something.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516536975699980303
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516528734601465861



This what I hate about spokespeople and the news.  It's the details that matter.  He said platforms.....it could just the Mi-11 helicopters.  Not fighters.  But who knows?  I would except that if is was for opsec. But I think it's for political reasons.


----------



## McG

A call for Canada to do more.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516557376182267909


----------



## Kirkhill

Come on you lot!  Pick up the pace.  You're needed on parade.




> *The Russians have not fully set conditions for a large-scale offensive operation. *The Russians have not had enough time to reconstitute forces withdrawn from the Battle of Kyiv and ready them properly for a new offensive in the east. The Russians appear to be still building logistics and command-and-control capabilities even as they start the next round of major fighting. The tempo of Russian operations continues to suggest that President Vladimir Putin is demanding a hasty offensive to achieve his stated objectives, possibly by “Victory Day” on May 9. The haste and partial preparation of the Russian attack will likely undermine its effectiveness and may compromise its success.





> The Kremlin is likely attempting to accelerate the capture of Mariupol for the domestic Russian information space judging from the large presence of Kremlin-sponsored journalists in the area.[6] The Russians may announce success even if Ukrainian forces retain their hold on port








						Institute for the Study of War
					

Russian and Ukrainian officials announced that the next phase of the Russian invasion of Ukraine began on April 19. Russian forces conducted intensive artillery and air bombardments of many areas along the front line from around Izyum to Mykolaiv but




					www.understandingwar.org
				






> Russia has started preparations for its Victory Day Parade in Moscow, rehearsing with 11,000 troops and giant intercontinental missiles.
> 
> Eight MiG-29 planes will fly past in a Z shape in a bizarre celebration of Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.











						Inside Russia's rehearsal for victory parade as Putin shows off missile launcher
					

An intercontinental missile took centre stage during preparations for the Victory Day Parade which will include a Z-shape flypast after the invasion of Ukraine




					www.mirror.co.uk


----------



## TacticalTea

Spencer100 said:


> This what I hate about spokespeople and the news.  It's the details that matter.  He said platforms.....it could just the Mi-11 helicopters.  Not fighters.  But who knows?  I would except that if is was for opsec. But I think it's for political reasons.


Watch the video I posted above. Gives you a better idea of what he meant and why he says what he says.


----------



## McG

Spencer100 said:


> This what I hate about spokespeople and the news. It's the details that matter.


Sometimes there can be operational benefit to delivering a message that is vague. Being vague can support OPSEC, deception, or plausible deniability.


----------



## Underway

TacticalTea said:


> View attachment 70213
> According to this, #13, behind Germany, ahead of Finland.
> The latter has an excuse. Germany and Canada do not.
> I have not verified those numbers or their source.


Again the numbers are almost a month old so kinda getting bent out of shape on a target that has moved quite a bit even today.  

For example, Romania just changed some laws today so they can export weapons to Ukraine as it was illegal for them to export arms )by their own parliamentary rules).  I expect their numbers to change rapidly as they can just drive the stuff about 6 hours north to Odessa.


----------



## AlexanderM

Spencer100 said:


> This what I hate about spokespeople and the news.  It's the details that matter.  He said platforms.....it could just the Mi-11 helicopters.  Not fighters.  But who knows?  I would except that if is was for opsec. But I think it's for political reasons.


I agree it would be political, not wanting to aggravate Russia. Seems that CNN is now a source.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516529012545409027
Another source, a good one I think!


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516565739892785168


----------



## TacticalTea

Underway said:


> Again the numbers are almost a month old so kinda getting bent out of shape on a target that has moved quite a bit even today.
> 
> For example, Romania just changed some laws today so they can export weapons to Ukraine as it was illegal for them to export arms )by their own parliamentary rules).  I expect their numbers to change rapidly as they can just drive the stuff about 6 hours north to Odessa.


Not forgetting that. But no comparison to GDP had been posted yet.

The interesting points are that even with its massive economy, the US is still close to the top, and Canada is still behind Germany. I'm concerned first and foremost about our own country's actions. 

As others have said, 500 million is great... if it translates into action.


----------



## MedCorps

Question from a friend today that I could not answer. Interested in wisdom from the masses. 

Why is the Crimean Bridge (between Russia and Kerch in occupied Crimea that spans Zuzla Island) still standing?  You would have thought that this was a deep fires strategic target to limit resupply from mainland Russia to the area. 

Anyone want to hazard a guess?  

MC


----------



## Underway

TacticalTea said:


> A tangential positive side-effect of this war is that I am receiving more and more munitions in the rhetorical battle against the idea that America is not a force for good in the world.


If you do good in the pursuit of your own selfish interests is that still classified as "being a force for good" or just happen to be a force for good this time.  US sees an opportunity to hasten the end of Russia, permanently so they don't have to babysit Europe anymore.

It's been laid bare that Russia would get obliterated in any conventional war with NATO.  Their military tech and tactics are a joke.  Which means to even the odds they need to use nukes to get the security that they want.  And as such the US realizes that Russia needs to die as a country in Ukraine, never getting close to Poland, Romania or Slovakia.   So that means full support.

If the US thought that it was better for their interests to let Russia have Ukraine they wouldn't hesitate to make that deal with Russia and sell Ukraine like a pimp.


----------



## suffolkowner

TacticalTea said:


> View attachment 70213
> According to this, #13, behind Germany, ahead of Finland.
> The latter has an excuse. Germany and Canada do not.
> I have not verified those numbers or their source.


maybe some pressure to do more in Finland









						Finland could do more
					

With the war in Ukraine looking nowhere near resolved and both sides apparently gearing up for the next round of fighting, one thing is clear. Finland could do more. This is true for a number of ca…




					corporalfrisk.com


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516529896612560896


----------



## TacticalTea

suffolkowner said:


> maybe some pressure to do more in Finland
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Finland could do more
> 
> 
> With the war in Ukraine looking nowhere near resolved and both sides apparently gearing up for the next round of fighting, one thing is clear. Finland could do more. This is true for a number of ca…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> corporalfrisk.com


For sure.

But! I can easily excuse Finland focusing on their own security. For the time being, they just need to join NATO and shore up their border.


----------



## suffolkowner

TacticalTea said:


> For sure.
> 
> But! I can easily excuse Finland focusing on their own security. For the time being, they just need to join NATO and shore up their border.


In this case corporalfrisk has a pretty specific list of possibilities, these two stood out as the easiest and most possible

"but one system stands out: the sole heavy guns in the Finnish arsenal that aren’t 155 mm ones, namely the 152 mm 2A36 Giatsint-B. A single battalion of 24 guns is found on strength under the local designation 152K89."

"However, the towed D-30 is available in significant numbers and generally assumed to be assigned to less-important units."


----------



## brihard

suffolkowner said:


> maybe some pressure to do more in Finland
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Finland could do more
> 
> 
> With the war in Ukraine looking nowhere near resolved and both sides apparently gearing up for the next round of fighting, one thing is clear. Finland could do more. This is true for a number of ca…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> corporalfrisk.com


I think it’s very understandable and prudent for Finland to hang on to its kit. They’re in the act of pissing off a paranoid and frightened Russia at present, and they share a border. Find land has an important role to play here; forking over combat equipment isn’t necessarily it.


----------



## daftandbarmy

MedCorps said:


> Question from a friend today that I could not answer. Interested in wisdom from the masses.
> 
> Why is the Crimean Bridge (between Russia and Kerch in occupied Crimea that spans Zuzla Island) still standing?  You would have thought that this was a deep fires strategic target to limit resupply from mainland Russia to the area.
> 
> Anyone want to hazard a guess?
> 
> MC



Redditt has some speculation for you:


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/teancs


----------



## OldSolduer

daftandbarmy said:


> Redditt has some speculation for you:
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/teancs


Then you have to rebuild it.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Watch for the turret after secondary explosion.



That's the "KPAKATAV" turret ejection system deploying to allow the crew to escape.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516276200540459016


----------



## Gunnar

rmc_wannabe said:


> Nah. Permanent display in the newly renamed Canadian Conflict Musem.


The Canadian National Museum of Unpleasantness and Disharmony


----------



## Zipperhead99

Kirkhill said:


> Come on you lot!  Pick up the pace.  You're needed on parade.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Institute for the Study of War
> 
> 
> Russian and Ukrainian officials announced that the next phase of the Russian invasion of Ukraine began on April 19. Russian forces conducted intensive artillery and air bombardments of many areas along the front line from around Izyum to Mykolaiv but
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.understandingwar.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Inside Russia's rehearsal for victory parade as Putin shows off missile launcher
> 
> 
> An intercontinental missile took centre stage during preparations for the Victory Day Parade which will include a Z-shape flypast after the invasion of Ukraine
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.mirror.co.uk


Russia has started preparations for its Victory Day Parade in Moscow, rehearsing with 11,000 troops and giant intercontinental missiles.
Eight MiG-29 planes will fly past in a Z shape in a bizarre celebration of Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.       

At this rate, those 11,000 troops will be all that entire Russian military will have left by 9 May


----------



## TacticalTea

suffolkowner said:


> In this case corporalfrisk has a pretty specific list of possibilities, these two stood out as the easiest and most possible
> 
> "but one system stands out: the sole heavy guns in the Finnish arsenal that aren’t 155 mm ones, namely the 152 mm 2A36 Giatsint-B. A single battalion of 24 guns is found on strength under the local designation 152K89."
> 
> "However, the towed D-30 is available in significant numbers and generally assumed to be assigned to less-important units."


I felt that was the most pertinent element, indeed!


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516680918232092672


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516666391465705477


----------



## KevinB

Interesting read.  


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516517836491046918


----------



## Skysix

Could just as easily, and perhaps more appropriately, substitute Canada for Germany. And they have half our population/tax base.


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516647996468994048


----------



## The Bread Guy

Denazify-ing Ukraine, one pet at a time ....


----------



## rwilllik4

I'm very worried about the civilian population


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516503899523461127
No ‘new’ aircraft. I guess giving used aircraft with a new paint job doesn’t count then.


----------



## suffolkowner

Skysix said:


> Could just as easily, and perhaps more appropriately, substitute Canada for Germany. And they have half our population/tax base.View attachment 70217



I mean honestly what do we have to give? The Ukrainian army was 10 x the size of Canada's to begin with. Do we have anything other than our Leo2's, LAV6's, and TAPV's. The Leos are reportedly in bad shape even. Myself would move pretty much the entire Canadian Army into Poland and Romania as a measure of assurance and thus maybe freeing up Romania and Poland to free up more that they can give to Ukraine. Same with our F-18's. A half dozen or so in Romania to beef them up and another half dozen in Czech/Slovakia should help encourage the movement of Mig 21/29 to Ukraine. Its sickens me to listen to Trudeau or even Anand blather on as if we have done anything significant. There hasn't even been any tangible progress on our own defence situation just more talk



KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516503899523461127
> No ‘new’ aircraft. I guess giving used aircraft with a new paint job doesn’t count then.



Drive it around the block a couple times and its no longer new. Do jet fighters depreciate %50 after one use?


----------



## Czech_pivo

suffolkowner said:


> I mean honestly what do we have to give? The Ukrainian army was 10 x the size of Canada's to begin with. Do we have anything other than our Leo2's, LAV6's, and TAPV's. The Leos are reportedly in bad shape even. Myself would move pretty much the entire Canadian Army into Poland and Romania as a measure of assurance and thus maybe freeing up Romania and Poland to free up more that they can give to Ukraine. Same with our F-18's. A half dozen or so in Romania to beef them up and another half dozen in Czech/Slovakia should help encourage the movement of Mig 21/29 to Ukraine. Its sickens me to listen to Trudeau or even Anand blather on as if we have done anything significant. There hasn't even been any tangible progress on our own defence situation just more talk
> 
> 
> 
> Drive it around the block a couple times and its no longer new. Do jet fighters depreciate %50 after one use?


Remember, ‘Words not deeds’


----------



## KevinB

In UM forum, Rice, McFaul say Ukraine, U.S. share challenges of democracy
					

On Monday, former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and former Ambassador Michael McFaul discussed “Fostering Freedom at Home and Abroad” with an emphasis on Russia’s war on Ukraine for the annual Mansfield Center Lecture at the University of Montana.




					missoulacurrent.com


----------



## Underway

suffolkowner said:


> I mean honestly what do we have to give? The Ukrainian army was 10 x the size of Canada's to begin with. Do we have anything other than our Leo2's, LAV6's, and TAPV's. The Leos are reportedly in bad shape even. Myself would move pretty much the entire Canadian Army into Poland and Romania as a measure of assurance and thus maybe freeing up Romania and Poland to free up more that they can give to Ukraine. Same with our F-18's. A half dozen or so in Romania to beef them up and another half dozen in Czech/Slovakia should help encourage the movement of Mig 21/29 to Ukraine. Its sickens me to listen to Trudeau or even Anand blather on as if we have done anything significant. There hasn't even been any tangible progress on our own defence situation just more talk
> 
> 
> 
> Drive it around the block a couple times and its no longer new. Do jet fighters depreciate %50 after one use?



We can do a lot but it requires some creative thinking.  Few ideas.


Set up foreign fighter training centers either in Europe or even here to train troops before they head to Ukraine.  All these untrained buffo's who've never even worn army boots going into Ukraine are more of a hindrance than a help
Throw the entire weight of Canada's assistance to Ukraine towards humanitarian aid.  Help Poland and others deal with the refugees, or kick some civil service ass to get more Ukrainians into Canada safely.  On that point read the riot act to provinces who are taking too long getting Ukrainian kids to school or hooking refugees up with provincial services.  It's easier to fight when you know your family is safe and taken care of.
Force through an Energy East plan over Quebec's head, and use Federal fiscal power to do it.  Get Europe off Russian oil and gas.  This will take a few years but it's important and strategic thinking.
Feed Ukraine, make sure there is a Maple Leaf on every box/bag/package of food
Bring together NATO to develop and push forward a Marshal Plan 2.0.  While the others focus on the military stuff we focus on the nation-building stuff.   Show Ukraine there is a future after this.
Get ready with peace support operations.  2022 will be the year of the Great Famine in the Middle East, Africa and likely Brazil.  Food prices are going to skyrocket as Russia and Ukraine's grain and fertilizer are removed from international markets.  This will create friction and problem spots all over the place as people get angry and desperate for food.  Countries are going to go to war over water and food access.


----------



## Spencer100

Underway said:


> We can do a lot but it requires some creative thinking.  Few ideas.
> 
> 
> Set up foreign fighter training centers either in Europe or even here to train troops before they head to Ukraine.  All these untrained buffo's who've never even worn army boots going into Ukraine are more of a hindrance than a help
> Throw the entire weight of Canada's assistance to Ukraine towards humanitarian aid.  Help Poland and others deal with the refugees, or kick some civil service ass to get more Ukrainians into Canada safely.  On that point read the riot act to provinces who are taking too long getting Ukrainian kids to school or hooking refugees up with provincial services.  It's easier to fight when you know your family is safe and taken care of.
> Force through an Energy East plan over Quebec's head, and use Federal fiscal power to do it.  Get Europe off Russian oil and gas.  This will take a few years but it's important and strategic thinking.
> Feed Ukraine, make sure there is a Maple Leaf on every box/bag/package of food
> Bring together NATO to develop and push forward a Marshal Plan 2.0.  While the others focus on the military stuff we focus on the nation-building stuff.   Show Ukraine there is a future after this.
> Get ready with peace support operations.  2022 will be the year of the Great Famine in the Middle East, Africa and likely Brazil.  Food prices are going to skyrocket as Russia and Ukraine's grain and fertilizer are removed from international markets.  This will create friction and problem spots all over the place as people get angry and desperate for food.  Countries are going to go to war over water and food access.


Great ideas!  That is some smart stuff.  I am going to steal that thinking.


----------



## daftandbarmy

suffolkowner said:


> I mean honestly what do we have to give? The Ukrainian army was 10 x the size of Canada's to begin with. Do we have anything other than our Leo2's, LAV6's, and TAPV's. The Leos are reportedly in bad shape even. Myself would move pretty much the entire Canadian Army into Poland and Romania as a measure of assurance and thus maybe freeing up Romania and Poland to free up more that they can give to Ukraine. Same with our F-18's. A half dozen or so in Romania to beef them up and another half dozen in Czech/Slovakia should help encourage the movement of Mig 21/29 to Ukraine. Its sickens me to listen to Trudeau or even Anand blather on as if we have done anything significant. There hasn't even been any tangible progress on our own defence situation just more talk
> 
> 
> 
> Drive it around the block a couple times and its no longer new. Do jet fighters depreciate %50 after one use?



You're right. They're 'asking for more than we can give.'


----------



## Underway

Spencer100 said:


> Great ideas!  That is some smart stuff.  I am going to steal that thinking.


It's not stealing when its given!  There is always a way to chip in and help if your goal isn't to look cool or grab headlines.  Everyone pulls on the line if you don't have another position.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Underway said:


> It's not stealing when its given!  There is always a way to chip in and help if your goal isn't to look cool or grab headlines.  Everyone pulls on the line if you don't have another position.


My next door neighbour is flying to Krakow and then driving on to Rzeszow shortly after, early next week.  His sister is in Krakow and his wife's family is outside of Rzeszow, in Lezajsk.  I'm giving him Euro's as his family over there directly knows people who are sheltering Ukrainian families in their houses around Lezajsk on their own dime.  I've told him to divide the money as he sees fit to help out with groceries or clothes, whatever.


----------



## YZT580

Underway said:


> We can do a lot but it requires some creative thinking.  Few ideas.
> 
> 
> Set up foreign fighter training centers either in Europe or even here to train troops before they head to Ukraine.  All these untrained buffo's who've never even worn army boots going into Ukraine are more of a hindrance than a help
> Throw the entire weight of Canada's assistance to Ukraine towards humanitarian aid.  Help Poland and others deal with the refugees, or kick some civil service ass to get more Ukrainians into Canada safely.  On that point read the riot act to provinces who are taking too long getting Ukrainian kids to school or hooking refugees up with provincial services.  It's easier to fight when you know your family is safe and taken care of.
> Force through an Energy East plan over Quebec's head, and use Federal fiscal power to do it.  Get Europe off Russian oil and gas.  This will take a few years but it's important and strategic thinking.
> Feed Ukraine, make sure there is a Maple Leaf on every box/bag/package of food
> Bring together NATO to develop and push forward a Marshal Plan 2.0.  While the others focus on the military stuff we focus on the nation-building stuff.   Show Ukraine there is a future after this.
> Get ready with peace support operations.  2022 will be the year of the Great Famine in the Middle East, Africa and likely Brazil.  Food prices are going to skyrocket as Russia and Ukraine's grain and fertilizer are removed from international markets.  This will create friction and problem spots all over the place as people get angry and desperate for food.  Countries are going to go to war over water and food access.


Instead of Ethanol, grow grains.  Food is more important than fuel and we have sufficient oil resources to more than make up the difference


----------



## Czech_pivo

YZT580 said:


> Instead of Ethanol, grow grains.  Food is more important than fuel and we have sufficient oil resources to more than make up the difference


A great deal of the corn crop in the Windsor-London area goes straight into Ethanol, I can’t understand the rational to take food and turn it into gas when such a significant portion of the world goes hungry each and every day.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516783864546533380
and more Arty to the party...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516783607880298499


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> A great deal of the corn crop in the Windsor-London area goes straight into Ethanol, I can’t understand the rational to take food and turn it into gas when such a significant portion of the world goes hungry each and every day.


Could say the same out west, massive amounts of crop space are used for canola to turn into biodiesel. Rip that out and plant food this year


----------



## Underway

MilEME09 said:


> Could say the same out west, massive amounts of crop space are used for canola to turn into biodiesel. Rip that out and plant food this year


Not likely this year, one of Russia's major agricultural exports is cooking oils.  Expect the farmers to make way more money selling that sort of "grown oil" then they do for fuel addatives.


----------



## Kirkhill

20.04.2022 11:51









						Russia wants to push Ukraine Army from eastern regions and maintain ‘land corridor’ to Crimea before May 9
					

The enemy’s objective is to push Ukrainian forces beyond the administrative borders of Donetsk Region and Luhansk Region and maintain the so-called ‘land corridor’ to the temporarily occupied Crimea before May 9, 2022. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				




20.04.2022 09:13









						Ukraine Army destroyed nine enemy air targets over past day
					

The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has destroyed nine enemy air targets over the past day. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				




20.04.2022 08:09









						Russian troops regrouping for offensive towards Lyman - General Staff
					

Russian troops are regrouping in order to continue their offensive toward the town of Lyman in the Donetsk region. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				




20.04.2022 02:53









						19 invaders, 6 enemy equipment units eliminated in southern Ukraine
					

The Russian troops lost 19 servicemen on the southern line of defense in Ukraine over the past day. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Good2Golf

The Bread Guy said:


> RUS says Mariupol defenders'll get one more chance to leave nicely (from RUS state media)
> View attachment 70212


Tell me you’re desperate without saying you’re desperate…

This is the what, fourth or fifth “come out with your hands up” offer from RF?


----------



## Kirkhill

Good2Golf said:


> Tell me you’re desperate without saying you’re desperate…
> 
> This is the what, fourth or fifth “come out with your hands up” offer from RF?



18 days to get this done and dusted.  

Complete the task of "liberating and denazifying" Ukraine (or at least one town).
Clean up for the photo-op.
Prepare interviews.
Recall the troops to Moscow.
Polish brasses.
Rehearse Goosestep.


----------



## McG

Good2Golf said:


> This is the what, fourth or fifth “come out with your hands up” offer from RF?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Private sector helping out ....








						AeroVironment Donates Over 100 Quantix Recon Unmanned Aircraft Systems to the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine and Territorial Forces
					

AeroVironment, Inc. is a global leader and manufacturer of small Unmanned Aircraft Systems and tactical missile systems used by the United States military and Commercial industries. AeroVironment's small unmanned aircrafts include the Puma AE, Raven, Wasp AE, Vapor and Quantix.




					www.avinc.com
				



Specs attached


----------



## Underway

Czech_pivo said:


> A great deal of the corn crop in the Windsor-London area goes straight into Ethanol, I can’t understand the rational to take food and turn it into gas when such a significant portion of the world goes hungry each and every day.


Most corn grown isn't fit for human consumption.  That corn is always used for industrial purposes or animal feed.


----------



## Good2Golf

Underway said:


> Most corn gorwn isn't fit for human consumption.  That corn is always used for industrial purposes.


Most for ethanol, from the last EIA report I saw a bit ago.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Good2Golf said:


> Most for ethanol, from the last EIA report I saw a bit ago.


The last time I checked about 40% of the corn crop in the US went directly into ethanol.


----------



## Remius

Czech_pivo said:


> My next door neighbour is flying to Krakow and then driving on to Rzeszow shortly after, early next week.  His sister is in Krakow and his wife's family is outside of Rzeszow, in Lezajsk.  I'm giving him Euro's as his family over there directly knows people who are sheltering Ukrainian families in their houses around Lezajsk on their own dime.  I've told him to divide the money as he sees fit to help out with groceries or clothes, whatever.


We have family friends in Germany hosting 5 UKR teenage girls.  My family gave them 1000$ to split and to be used specifically for whatever trinkets, iTunes cards, cellphones, makeup etc.  Whatever THEY want to spend it on.  They got a lot of donations for groceries and clothes etc but this donation was for whatever could make them happy with a bit of spending money.


----------



## YZT580

Underway said:


> Most corn grown isn't fit for human consumption.  That corn is always used for industrial purposes or animal feed.


planting season is just beginning.  There is plenty of time to replace fuel-specific seed.  Perhaps an appropriate time for government to aid in the purchase of the appropriate seed for human consumption


----------



## Weinie

Underway said:


> *Most corn grown isn't fit for human consumption.*  That corn is always used for industrial purposes or animal feed.


All corn isn't fit for human consumption. It goes in and right back out.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516796965257945088


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516816144975421440


----------



## OldSolduer

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516796965257945088


There are several dead French and Italians from ww2 who found that out. Probably a few other ethnicities as well.

Not to mention mobsters and snitches as well.


----------



## Brad Sallows

If the futures markets for food commodities aren't showing higher future prices, I suppose it means the people with big money and a bunch of MIT graduates running their economic models have done their staff checks and don't think famine is imminent.


----------



## KevinB

Interesting -- apparently all the fortifications and tunnels are serving them well still 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516808014711476230


----------



## daftandbarmy

Good2Golf said:


> Tell me you’re desperate without saying you’re desperate…
> 
> This is the what, fourth or fifth “come out with your hands up” offer from RF?



Desperate.... and doubling down:

Putin’s key supporters are now playing a desperate face-saving game in Ukraine​Russia’s humiliated military and intelligence blocs know they have let their leader down, and need the war to go on

Russia’s war in Ukraine is not going according to plan. The sinking of the Moskva – the flagship of the Black Sea fleet – is the latest major military setback. In the course of almost two months, Russia has lost six major generals and between 15,000-20,000 troops, all the while failing to secure any appreciable gains.

Reports of low morale and defection, coupled with sightings of mercenaries deployed by the Kremlin, hint at recruitment problems. This, along with Russia’s apparent inability to replenish lost military equipment – a consequence of western sanctions – has led some observers to wonder whether the Russian war machine is running out of road.

Despite this, there are few indications that Russia is considering cutting its losses. By all accounts, ceasefire negotiations have reached a dead end, with Russia refusing to compromise on any of its initial positions. After his recent face-to-face meeting with Putin, the Austrian chancellor, Karl Nehammer, said that Putin “believes he is winning the war”.

The Kremlin is suffering major setbacks, but will not alter its negotiating strategy. This isn’t mere bravado. Research on authoritarian regimes has shown that in many cases, the direction wars take is not solely determined by battlefield success or failure. Rather, major decisions – especially about when to end the war – are often dictated by the interests of the key political players within the country. Understanding the Kremlin’s decision-making, therefore, requires zeroing in on the key power dynamics within the regime.

Putin’s domestic political base consists of two rival power blocs: the intelligence apparatus and the military. Both have suffered major blows to their credibility during the war. However, as they continue to jockey for Putin’s favour, both also have a vested interest in prolonging the conflict in some form.

The intelligence bloc includes the current and former leadership of the FSB (the Russian successor of the Soviet KGB) and other intelligence agencies. Having started his career as a KGB operative, Putin has maintained a symbiotic relationship with the agency throughout his tenure. Several FSB leaders are long-time members of Putin’s inner circle and his confidants.

The other power bloc consists of the heads of the military and defence structures, such as the defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, the chief of staff, Valery Gerasimov, and the head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov. These individuals have earned the trust of the Russian leader as a result of decades of service and unwavering loyalty.

Despite notable similarities – conservative, anti-democratic and anti-west – the interests of the two blocs are not perfectly aligned. The intelligence community’s focus is domestic, broadly defined to include the former Soviet space. Its specialties are controlling dissent, staging covert operations, and political sabotage. The military community, as its name implies, is the party of war. It derives its influence from foreign policy adventurism. The intelligence agencies reign during peaceful times, the military rules during war.

The unforeseen setbacks experienced in the course of the invasion have thrown a wrench into the usual power dynamics between the two blocs and the Russian leader. For Putin, the war has revealed the true state of affairs within both the military and intelligence apparatus.

Intelligence took the first blow. Moscow’s original plan was to take Kyiv in two days. Russian troops brought parade uniforms, expecting to march down Khreshchatyk in a victory celebration. The ambitious plan was based on intelligence reports that Ukrainians would greet Russian soldiers as liberators – false information that led to massive strategic miscalculations and losses during the war’s first stage.

The military has also come under scrutiny. The war has shown the world the pathetic state of the Russian army, a consequence of decades of deferred maintenance and blatant corruption. Low morale, lack of training, and equipment failures have shone an unflattering light on what is apparently the world’s second strongest army.

As a result of these failures, Putin has learned that some of his closest friends and allies have lied, misappropriated funds and forged reports for a significant part of his rule. His inner circle may not be as trustworthy as he thought.

There is some evidence that Putin may not have access to all of this information – the dispatches he receives may downplay Russia’s setbacks. Even so, unconfirmed reports of the arrests of top intelligence officials responsible for the situation in Ukraine indicate that the Russian leader is aware of, and has reacted to, some of the intelligence failures. And speculation has also surrounded the recent decrease in public appearances by Shoigu and Gerasimov.

In general, continuing the war should protect the position of the military. However displeased, Putin cannot afford to purge his military command during the war. As long as this war lasts, the leaders of the military will not be held accountable, despite their poor performance. Hence, the military command has a strong preference for stretching out the war.

This puts the intelligence agencies at a relative disadvantage. They have lost influence after their early failures, and they will lose even more should Russian troops manage to achieve greater military success. The end of the war may bring a real reckoning for earlier failed intelligence. Because of this, the best possible scenario for top intelligence operatives is a frozen war, with little fighting but no permanent resolution. This would allow them to re-establish their standing with the Russian leader the way they know best – through covert operations in the occupied territories.

Both groups have an interest in dragging out the war, even if things continue to go poorly: the fog of war protects them from having to answer for their failures. Neither group will lobby Putin to end the war, and Putin himself will not stop until he can claim some sort of victory. And so, the war will go on.









						Putin’s key supporters are now playing a desperate face-saving game in Ukraine | Olga Chyzh
					

Russia’s humiliated military and intelligence blocs know they have let their leader down, and need the war to go on, says political science expert Olga Chyzh




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## KevinB

NATO allies could be involved in safe passage of civilians from Mariupol, US official tells CNN
					

Ukrainian forces continue to resist Russian attacks in southeastern Mariupol, with a Ukrainian commander saying the situation at the Azovstal steel plant is "critical."




					edition.cnn.com


----------



## CBH99

KevinB said:


> Interesting read.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516517836491046918


I missed this when you first posted it.  Spent the last hour or so reading it.  Fascinating, truly, and helps fill in some of the big questions I had about what, why, how some Russians believe what they do.

Great post Kev


----------



## daftandbarmy

Cover from view is not cover from fire... and some other Infantry stuff:


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u6jx7a


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Shooting by a professional Russian sniper in Mariupol at the Azovstal industrial zone.



I saw that movie.  Jude Law, wasn't it?


----------



## Retired AF Guy

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516796965257945088


Bullet proof windows? I would have thought the side windows would shatter from bullet impacts.


----------



## TacticalTea

Anyone seen this before? Call of Duty rifle "skin" on an actual battlefield? As you can tell from the mismatched uniforms, these are allegedly Russia's foreign fighters. (there's some Russian camouflage pattern cropped out)


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> NATO allies could be involved in safe passage of civilians from Mariupol, US official tells CNN
> 
> 
> Ukrainian forces continue to resist Russian attacks in southeastern Mariupol, with a Ukrainian commander saying the situation at the Azovstal steel plant is "critical."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> edition.cnn.com


At what point does NATO decide to move into the Black Sea?


----------



## KevinB

Soldier35 said:


> Shooting by a professional Russian sniper in Mariupol at the Azovstal industrial zone. The soldier uses a powerful 12.7mm ASVK sniper rifle. Having fired, he immediately crawls away so as not to be hit by possible return fire, which begins after a few seconds.



Lol.   If that’s a Russian ‘Professional’ Sniper your even more FUBAR than I thought.   The muzzle blast totally discloses and potentially collapses his position if his shiny cape was not already going to be drawing fire.  

Buffoonery at best.   





Soldier35 said:


> Russia received a huge amount of captured Ukrainian equipment and weapons. Despite Ukraine's losses, the US and European armies are actively arming Ukraine. The Russian military showed grenade launchers of the Ukrainian army. The Polish RPG-76 "Komar" grenade launcher, the Czechoslovakian RPG-75 grenade launcher, the American M72 A5 grenade launcher, the good Swedish AT4 grenade launcher, are actively used by the Russian military. Swedish-British grenade launcher "NLAW", every second grenade launcher with a dead battery.


So how’s that conquest going anyway.  
    Must be tough realizing your country is a has been in the page of history.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> At what point does NATO decide to move into the Black Sea?


Answer: when it wants


----------



## Weinie

Retired AF Guy said:


> Bullet proof windows? I would have thought the side windows would shatter from bullet impacts.


FMJ or bonded. Kev B will likely weigh in.


----------



## KevinB

Weinie said:


> FMJ or bonded. Kev B will likely weigh in.


Laminated glass tends not to shatter even on side windows.  
    Didn’t appear to have any significant bullet resistant thickness to it.  One can add Mylar to keep them intact and provide some additional resistance - but even a B6 armored vehicle will fail with multiple impacts into the glass with rifle or MG fire.


----------



## Underway

Brad Sallows said:


> If the futures markets for food commodities aren't showing higher future prices, I suppose it means the people with big money and a bunch of MIT graduates running their economic models have done their staff checks and don't think famine is imminent.


I sure as hell hope they are right, but the last time Russian grain supplies were disrupted it tripled food prices in the Middle East.  That was the spark that led directly to the Arab Spring.  Now Russian food exports will have stopped and Ukrainian ones as well.  Combined with Russian fertilizer sanctions so you can't grow food on marginal soils...

MIT experts are great, but I'm pretty confident they are not putting a "zero" in the column beside Ukraine and Russia.  It's a paradigm they haven't shifted to yet because its outside of their thinking.


Czech_pivo said:


> At what point does NATO decide to move into the Black Sea?


They are already there.  Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey have fleets watching the Russians carefully.


----------



## Brad Sallows

Math whizzes with models and a lot of money at stake can't be relied upon with certainty, but they're miles ahead of everyone who is basically saying "I think..." or "I have concerns that...".  Besides, without having looked yet, I'd be surprised if future prices weren't up already.


----------



## TheProfessional

Brad Sallows said:


> I saw that movie.  Jude Law, wasn't it?


Professional Russian sniper... I think FPSRussia is back. Was wondering where he was all this time.

As always, Have nice day


----------



## MilEME09

TheProfessional said:


> Professional Russian sniper... I think FPSRussia is back. Was wondering where he was all this time.
> 
> As always, Have nice day


Given the level of war crimes, professional and Russian soldier never go together


----------



## OldSolduer

OldSolduer said:


> There are several dead French and Italians from ww2 who found that out. Probably a few other ethnicities as well.
> 
> Not to mention mobsters and snitches as well.


I just want to add if you consort with the enemy of your country - collaborate to bring misery to your nation then you get what you deserve.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516840494675939331


----------



## OldSolduer

KevinB said:


> Answer: when it wants


If it wants ….


----------



## The Bread Guy

On Mariupol -- literally he says (RUS MoD from attached statement about 3 hours ago) ....


> The Russian Armed Forces today, April 20, 2022, for purely humane reasons, from 2pm (Moscow time) opened a humanitarian corridor for the evacuation of civilians from the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol, which, according to the Ukrainian side, is allegedly located there, and also offered AFU servicemen, fighters of nationalist battalions and foreign mercenaries to lay down their arms and voluntarily surrender.
> 
> We are forced to note that the announced humanitarian operation has been cynically disrupted by the Kiev authorities, and no one has made use of the corridor in question. The commanders of the nationalist battalions did not seize another opportunity to save themselves and the lives of their subordinates.
> 
> At the same time, the Kiev authorities have ignored Russian initiatives, showed an inhuman attitude towards Ukrainian servicemen and failed to give them the only correct order - to stop pointless resistance and lay down arms.
> 
> Separately, we inform the command of the Azov nationalist battalion, which has issued a video appeal to the international community, including the leaders of the United Kingdom, the USA and Turkey, asking for "green corridors" and for the release of civilians allegedly staying at Azovstal, wounded fighters and the evacuation of bodies of dead Ukrainian servicemen. You have come to the wrong place. The Russian Federation has done everything to save your lives. You should have appealed directly to the leadership of Ukraine, which long ago betrayed you ...


... versus she says (via UKR state media)


> The humanitarian corridor from Mariupol did not work as planned today, the Russian occupiers were unable to ensure a proper ceasefire and timely transportation of people, Deputy Prime Minister, Minister for the Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine Iryna Vereshchuk has said.
> 
> "Unfortunately, the humanitarian corridor from Mariupol today did not work as planned. Due to the lack of control over their own military on the ground, the occupiers were unable to ensure a proper ceasefire. Due to the inherent disorganization and slovenliness, the occupiers were unable to ensure the timely delivery of people to point where dozens of our buses and ambulances were waiting," ...


----------



## OldSolduer

The Bread Guy said:


> On Mariupol -- literally he says (RUS MoD from attached statement about 3 hours ago) ....
> 
> ... versus she says (via UKR state media)


Who’s this guys coach? Baghdad Bob???


----------



## Czech_pivo

Underway said:


> I sure as hell hope they are right, but the last time Russian grain supplies were disrupted it tripled food prices in the Middle East.  That was the spark that led directly to the Arab Spring.  Now Russian food exports will have stopped and Ukrainian ones as well.  Combined with Russian fertilizer sanctions so you can't grow food on marginal soils...
> 
> MIT experts are great, but I'm pretty confident they are not putting a "zero" in the column beside Ukraine and Russia.  It's a paradigm they haven't shifted to yet because its outside of their thinking.
> 
> They are already there.  Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey have fleets watching the Russians carefully.


Seeds (and fertilizer) are ordered a few months in advance to the planting season, pivoting from one crop to another is not an easy task.

As for hoping that farmers here in North America plant substantially less feed corn or ethanol corn and alot more Durum wheat or barley or maize, it comes down to 'dollars and cents'.  If 'our' farmers believe that they can make more money this year growing wheat vs feed corn or corn for ethanol, then they will do it.  But without an economic reason (government directive) they simply won't do it. 

This article may make some people a bit less concerned about this summer's crops.

*We're Not Facing a Global Food Crisis*









						We're Not Facing a Global Food Crisis
					

Two weeks ago, Russia invaded Ukraine, inflicting horrific violence on the Ukrainian people and capturing the attention of the world. Russia and Ukraine are large producers and exporters of agricultural commodities. How will the war will affect the world's food supply?  My answer: This will have...




					asmith.ucdavis.edu


----------



## Brad Sallows

I'll stick with my default position on most matters, then.  Political/policy posturing driven by "ZOMG The Wheat Harvest!" sentiments is likely to do more harm than good.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516859291889774599


----------



## Navy_Pete

Czech_pivo said:


> At what point does NATO decide to move into the Black Sea?


So access to the Black Sea is all controlled by Turkey by the Montreux convention that limits the movement of warships in and out, as well as tonnage etc.

So unless we go to war, that also keeps out Russian ships (not registered in a homeport there) so most of their fleet can't be brought into the fight.

Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits - Wikipedia


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516829338242621442


----------



## KevinB

Navy_Pete said:


> So access to the Black Sea is all controlled by Turkey by the Montreux convention that limits the movement of warships in and out, as well as tonnage etc.
> 
> So unless we go to war, that also keeps out Russian ships (not registered in a homeport there) so most of their fleet can't be brought into the fight.
> 
> Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits - Wikipedia


We don't sign stinking conventions ​​United States[edit]​The United States has not signed the convention but has generally complied with it.[23] The passage of US warships through the Straits also raised controversy, as the convention forbids the transit of non-Black Sea nations' warships with guns of a calibre larger than eight inches (203 mm). In the 1960s, the US sent warships carrying 420 mm calibre ASROCmissiles through the Straits and so prompted Soviet protests. The Turkish government rejected the Soviet complaints by pointing out that guided missiles were not guns and that since such weapons had not existed at the time of the Convention, they were not restricted.[42]

According to Jason Ditz of Antiwar.com, the Montreux Convention is an obstacle to US naval buildup in the Black Sea because of its stipulations regulating warship traffic by nations not sharing a Black Sea coastline.[43] The US thinktank Stratfor has written that those stipulations place Turkey's relationship to the US and its obligations as a NATO member in conflict with Russia and the regulations of the Montreux Convention.[44]



- We don't have anything with 8" guns anymore - so we can darned tooting drive through if we want


----------



## Brad Sallows

If anyone violates the Montreux Convention, I'm confident Turkey will make sure there is smoke on the water.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516351156951257092


----------



## TacticalTea

Brad Sallows said:


> Math whizzes with models and a lot of money at stake can't be relied upon with certainty, but they're miles ahead of everyone who is basically saying "I think..." or "I have concerns that...".  Besides, without having looked yet, I'd be surprised if future prices weren't up already.



July (3 months). Peak +500 (+66%), Current +375 (+50%)

And... December. (8 months)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Another map to try out - this one from France's DefMin info-machine page on Ukraine for today

One very useful resource they have:  PDFs of ALL the updates they've shared since they started sharing, by month - 2-31 Mar 2022 and 2-20 Apr 2022.


----------



## TacticalTea

Pessimistic Russian perspective from Igor Girkin on the Donbass Spring Offensive.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516796704816832512


----------



## Good2Golf

Weinie said:


> FMJ or bonded. Kev B will likely weigh in.





KevinB said:


> Laminated glass tends not to shatter even on side windows.
> Didn’t appear to have any significant bullet resistant thickness to it.  One can add Mylar to keep them intact and provide some additional resistance - but even a B6 armored vehicle will fail with multiple impacts into the glass with rifle or MG fire.


…or some Gangsta’ tint!


----------



## OldSolduer

KevinB said:


> ​
> According to Jason Ditz of Antiwar.com, the Montreux Convention is an obstacle to US naval buildup in the Black Sea because of its stipulations regulating warship traffic by nations not sharing a Black Sea coastline.[43] The US thinktank Stratfor has written that those stipulations place Turkey's relationship to the US and its obligations as a NATO member in conflict with Russia and the regulations of the Montreux Convention.[44]
> 
> 
> 
> - We don't have anything with 8" guns anymore - so we can darned tooting drive through if we want


The USA should buy 10 acres on the Black Sea Coastline and make it a territory. Maybe on the Romanian coast? Just a thought.


----------



## AlexanderM

So the word now is, even if they didn't get whole aircraft they have received enough spare parts to add 20 fighter jets? If accurate, that's a step in the right direction, but more needs to be done!



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516853073343352836






						Ukraine Given No Whole Aircraft From Allies, Only Parts: Pentagon
					

The US Defense Department on Wednesday retracted its claim Ukraine had been supplied with more aircraft, saying only parts had been delivered to enable Kyiv to put more jets into the fight against Russia.




					www.barrons.com


----------



## KevinB

When you drunkenly stumble and don't have a stick...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516883853431955456


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516351156951257092



Respect!


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> When you drunkenly stumble and don't have a stick...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516883853431955456


Anyone thinking putin will stop with Ukraine is a fool, state TV essentially is drumming up war with NATO


----------



## suffolkowner

OldSolduer said:


> The USA should buy 10 acres on the Black Sea Coastline and make it a territory. Maybe on the Romanian coast? Just a thought.


how about odessa?


KevinB said:


> When you drunkenly stumble and don't have a stick...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516883853431955456


When a Russian starts talking about NATO running out of munitions and weapon systems I just naturally think that the Russians are that much closer to doing the same


----------



## Weinie

MilEME09 said:


> Anyone thinking putin will stop with Ukraine is a fool, state TV essentially is drumming up war with NATO


It would be a slaughter for NATO, which would necessitate Russia to use nukes, which be an even greater slaughter.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Weinie said:


> It would be a slaughter for NATO, which would necessitate Russia to use nukes, which be an even greater slaughter.



Here we go ...


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Weinie said:


> It would be a slaughter for NATO, which would necessitate Russia to use nukes, which be an even greater slaughter.


The problem being is that we are playing chicken with someone who doesn't care if their car gets totalled.

Putin et al are full of bravado and machismo; they rule with an iron fist because that's how they intimidate and maintain power over those they view as weak. Putin is basically Tony Soprano with launch codes.

The only way to counter these kinds of people are with force, or in lieu of force, a message. So far, we have appeared weak, thus, not a threat to the status quo. 

Bloody their nose a bit? They'll back down. I don't think Putin has the stones to launch a nuke, because he loses the thing he craves the most: power.  He can't win the day again if the world is radioactive. If he falls back and regroups, he can push his narrative for longer.


----------



## torg003

We can only hope.  That would mean that Putin isn't completely bat-shit crazy and has the sense not to start a nuclear war.  The jury seems to still be out on that.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Weinie said:


> It would be a slaughter for NATO, which would necessitate Russia to use nukes, which be an even greater slaughter.


I'm just glad that anyone who thinks it's wise to risk nuclear engagement over this war is not in a position of power.....

That is all.


----------



## suffolkowner

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I'm just glad that anyone who thinks it's wise to risk nuclear engagement over this war is not in a position of power.....
> 
> That is all.


I have to believe that any nuclear action is not on the table but this is one case where it really doesn't take two to tango. Putin could use nukes on his own and has to think that there use may result in nuclear retaliation otherwise how is MAD to work?


----------



## Czech_pivo

rmc_wannabe said:


> The problem being is that we are playing chicken with someone who doesn't care if their car gets totalled.
> 
> Putin et al are full of bravado and machismo; they rule with an iron fist because that's how they intimidate and maintain power over those they view as weak. Putin is basically Tony Soprano with launch codes.
> 
> The only way to counter these kinds of people are with force, or in lieu of force, a message. So far, we have appeared weak, thus, not a threat to the status quo.
> 
> Bloody their nose a bit? They'll back down. I don't think Putin has the stones to launch a nuke, because he loses the thing he craves the most: power.  He can't win the day again if the world is radioactive. If he falls back and regroups, he can push his narrative for longer.


In 10yrs time Putin will be 79yrs old, if he makes it that long.  The older he gets, the more unstable he’s going to be become.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

suffolkowner said:


> I have to believe that any nuclear action is not on the table but this is one case where it really doesn't take two to tango. Putin could use nukes on his own and has to think that there use may result in nuclear retaliation otherwise how is MAD to work?


Yes but there are some that are so emotionally involved/invested in this that are willing to risk MAD to satisfy their emotional desire for a result they want.

That's stupid and also foolish.  I don't want those people at the adults table.


----------



## TacticalTea

AlexanderM said:


> So the word now is, even if they didn't get whole aircraft they have received enough spare parts to add 20 fighter jets? If accurate, that's a step in the right direction, but more needs to be done!
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516853073343352836
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine Given No Whole Aircraft From Allies, Only Parts: Pentagon
> 
> 
> The US Defense Department on Wednesday retracted its claim Ukraine had been supplied with more aircraft, saying only parts had been delivered to enable Kyiv to put more jets into the fight against Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.barrons.com


At the same time, how would they even send 20 aircraft?

Is it crazy to think they could just dismantle them entirely then ship them over in boxes with an Ikea manual?


----------



## suffolkowner

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Yes but there are some that are so emotionally involved/invested in this that are willing to risk MAD to satisfy their emotional desire for a result they want.
> 
> That's stupid and also foolish.  I don't want those people at the adults table.


Yes but as always where is the line? 1 nuke? 2? Ukraine? Moldova? Georgia?


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

suffolkowner said:


> Yes but as always where is the line? 1 nuke? 2? Ukraine? Moldova? Georgia?


We know exactly where the line is:







It's a defensive alliance, defensive being the key word.


----------



## suffolkowner

I know that line, but conceivably a country could nuke every other country in the world outside of an alliance then? And then do it again?


----------



## JLB50

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Yes but there are some that are so emotionally involved/invested in this that are willing to risk MAD to satisfy their emotional desire for a result they want.
> 
> That's stupid and also foolish.  I don't want those people at the adults table.


Oh, how I wish I could be a fly on the wall when Blinken gets together with Russia’s ambassador to the U.S.  Just imagine the threats and counter threats being bandied about.


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> We know exactly where the line is:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It's a defensive alliance, defensive being the key word.


You are going to need some more blue shortly -- Sweden and Finland had enough of VVP's Bat Shit Crazy Power desires.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> You are going to need some more blue shortly -- Sweden and Finland had enough of VVP's Bat Shit Crazy Power desires.


That map is also missing Croatia, Montenegro, Albania and North Macedonia.


----------



## Blackadder1916

And another country heard from . . . 






						Ohio National Guard Provides Support to Ukraine
					

Ohio Governor Mike DeWine announced today that the Ohio Army National Guard will aid Ukraine by providing armored personnel carriers for use against continued Russian aggression.




					governor.ohio.gov
				





> Ohio National Guard Provides Support to Ukraine​April 20, 2022
> (COLUMBUS, Ohio)— Ohio Governor Mike DeWine announced today that the Ohio Army National Guard will aid Ukraine by providing armored personnel carriers for use against continued Russian aggression.
> 
> Following a request from the Department of Defense (DOD), the Ohio Army National Guard will give an undisclosed number of M-113 Armored Personnel Carriers (APC) to Ukraine as part of a drawdown of DOD inventories to support the war-torn country. M-113 APCs are used to move Soldiers and equipment across the battlefield while providing protection from small arms fire and the effects of artillery.
> 
> "As we continue to learn about Russian war crimes in Ukraine, those of us in Ohio stand ready to help the Ukrainian people in any way possible," said Governor DeWine. "Ohio has a strong Ukrainian community, and we stand behind them and their families overseas."
> 
> Today's announcement is the latest effort in Ohio to help Ukraine combat the unprovoked attack by Russia. Earlier this month, Governor DeWine announced that the Ohio Department of Public Safety had begun collecting hundreds of pieces of surplus or expired personal protective gear for donation to members of the Ukraine civilian territorial defense. More than two dozen law enforcement agencies in Ohio agreed to donate unneeded equipment, including approximately 75 ballistic and riot helmets and 840 pieces of body armor, including vests and plates.
> 
> Local law enforcement agencies that have not yet donated but would like to offer unneeded personal protective gear to Ukraine, should contact their nearest Ohio State Highway Patrol post to arrange for the transfer of the equipment. Delivery of the personal protective gear donations to Ukraine is being coordinated by the Fund to Aid Ukraine, a non-profit organization based in Parma that is affiliated with the United Ukrainian Organizations of Ohio, a member of the Ukrainian Congress Committee of America.
> 
> In March, Governor DeWine held the Ohio Summit on Ukrainian Refugees to bring together various organizations to ensure Ohio is ready to help, should it be asked to accept Ukrainian refugees. He also signed Executive Order 22-02D prohibiting State of Ohio investment or purchasing activity from aiding Russia in violating the rights of the Ukrainian people and ordered all state agencies, boards and commissions, state educational institutions, and pension funds, to the extent practicable, divest any investment in and terminate any contracts with a Russian institution or company.
> 
> In February, Governor DeWine directed the Ohio Department of Commerce to cease both the purchase and sale of all vodka made by Russian Standard, the only overseas, Russian-owned distillery with vodka sold in Ohio and declared February 27 a Day of Prayer in Ohio to show support for innocent civilians under attack by Russia.


----------



## AlexanderM

TacticalTea said:


> At the same time, how would they even send 20 aircraft?
> 
> Is it crazy to think they could just dismantle them entirely then ship them over in boxes with an Ikea manual?


I know, right! That's why I put in the question mark, to say, what are they doing here!! Sending the jets in parts so they can say, hey man we only sent parts!


----------



## Underway

TacticalTea said:


> At the same time, how would they even send 20 aircraft?
> 
> Is it crazy to think they could just dismantle them entirely then ship them over in boxes with an Ikea manual?


If I send you 20 LEGO kits of spaceships, did I send you parts for 20 spaceships or 20 actual spaceships?

All I'm seeing here is a build a plane kit being sent instead of an assembled plane.  Amazon probably did the delivery.


----------



## AlexanderM

So check my math.  Each BTG has ~ 10 tanks, 12 artillery pieces and around 10 air defense pieces, so if they get the production ramped up on the Switchblade 600's, about 300 of them can, in theory, take out around 10 BTG's, at least the heavy pieces!! Then clean up the rest! So 1000 is ~30 BTG's!!  I saw a report that they received 10 600's in the first shipment of 100, no idea how many in the second shipment of 600. Are they a game changer or could they be?? I'm really just asking. looking for info.

It doesn't say here how many are the 600 model, if anyone can find out it would be good to know!









						US Military Sends Another 600 Switchblade Drones to Ukraine
					

Ukraine's use of drones to counter Russia's invasion is changing the nature of war.




					www.cnet.com
				




The Switchblade 600 has a range of 40Km and an operator, so if one knows where the pieces are located from satellite pics, you can go after them, at least that's the whole idea.









						Switchblade® 600 Kamikaze Drones | Suicide Drone | AeroVironment, Inc.
					

AeroVironment's Switchblade 600 kamikaze drone redefines the next generation of extended-range loitering missiles, delivering unprecedented RSTA support and high-precision optics, over 40 minutes of loitering endurance, and an anti-armor warhead for engaging larger, hardened targets at greater...




					www.avinc.com


----------



## Skysix

Humphrey Bogart said:


> We know exactly where the line is:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It's a defensive alliance, defensive being the key word.


Now redraw that map in a polar perspective centered on Moscow. NATO almost surrounds Russia.


----------



## OldSolduer

MilEME09 said:


> Anyone thinking putin will stop with Ukraine is a fool, state TV essentially is drumming up war with NATO


Its a sobering thought is it not? 

One can only hope cooler heads prevail.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Czech_pivo said:


> That map is also missing Croatia, Montenegro, Albania and North Macedonia.


Who cares, the point is still made.  If we add Sweden and Finland as well, all the better.  But being part of an Alliance comes with costs and they better be willing to pony up.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Who cares, the point is still made.  If we add Sweden and Finland as well, all the better.  But being part of an Alliance comes with costs and they better be willing to pony up.


Lol, are we willing to pony up? 
Country of 38 million, G7 member, have we? 
Not by my definition, not even fricking close.


----------



## AlexanderM

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Who cares, the point is still made.  If we add Sweden and Finland as well, all the better.  But being part of an Alliance comes with costs and they better be willing to pony up.


I saw on Twitter that Finland has moved a large number of farm tractors close to the Russian border, so looks like they have it covered!!!


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/u4kc5z


----------



## daftandbarmy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Who cares, the point is still made.  If we add Sweden and Finland as well, all the better.  But being part of an Alliance comes with costs and they better be willing to pony up.



The Russian Northern Fleet is based in the Kola Peninsula, not too far from the Finnish border. At one time it was the largest concentration of military force in the world.









						In A Remote Arctic Outpost, Norway Keeps Watch On Russia's Military Buildup
					

Warmer weather up north is opening up shipping lanes and new access to natural resources. It's also fueling a military buildup.




					www.npr.org
				




Should Sweden and Finland join NATO, we'd better 'pony up' and make sure that NATO is fully 'stood to' first.


----------



## Good2Golf

daftandbarmy said:


> Should Sweden and Finland join NATO, we'd better 'pony up' and make sure that NATO is fully 'stood to' first.


Canada could issue the convening order for the working group to assess options for the build-up in the Baltic region. 👍🏼


----------



## Dana381

Czech_pivo said:


> Seeds (and fertilizer) are ordered a few months in advance to the planting season, pivoting from one crop to another is not an easy task.
> 
> As for hoping that farmers here in North America plant substantially less feed corn or ethanol corn and alot more Durum wheat or barley or maize, it comes down to 'dollars and cents'.  If 'our' farmers believe that they can make more money this year growing wheat vs feed corn or corn for ethanol, then they will do it.  But without an economic reason (government directive) they simply won't do it.
> 
> This article may make some people a bit less concerned about this summer's crops.
> 
> *We're Not Facing a Global Food Crisis*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> We're Not Facing a Global Food Crisis
> 
> 
> Two weeks ago, Russia invaded Ukraine, inflicting horrific violence on the Ukrainian people and capturing the attention of the world. Russia and Ukraine are large producers and exporters of agricultural commodities. How will the war will affect the world's food supply?  My answer: This will have...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> asmith.ucdavis.edu



Seed farmers grow seed the year ahead and in Canada it needs to be inspected in the field and before sale by CFIA. They grow seed based on what is expected to sell, I.e. what sold last year plus what growth they predict. We may be able to increase food production some this year but any significant increase will take a couple years.

That is how it worked on the potato farm I used to work at. I'm assuming other crops work the same.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Czech_pivo said:


> Lol, are we willing to pony up?
> Country of 38 million, G7 member, have we?
> Not by my definition, not even fricking close.


If you follow Trudeau’s love affair with Germany, based on our population compared to Germany, we are 20k personnel short of where we should be. Add to that the fact the Germany is looking to increase its armed forces members by 12% by 2025 to approx 204k, we need to add in another 12k to the 20k we’re down. 
Ask yourself what the CAF could do with another 32k bodies. We might actually be taken seriously once again and not sit at the kiddie table anymore.


----------



## WLSC

Skysix said:


> Now redraw that map in a polar perspective centered on Moscow. NATO almost surrounds Russia.


Well, the planet being a basically a ball yep, it surely true even more if you are a bit paranoiac.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Meanwhile, in Victoria, someone burns a Ukrainian pastor and his family out of their house:

Victoria arson investigation underway after gas poured into home while family of 5 slept​
Police and firefighters are investigating after a family of five, including three children, narrowly escaped an arson attack on their Victoria home overnight.

Yuriy Vyshnevskyy, a Ukrainian Catholic church pastor, says he awoke around 1 a.m. Wednesday to his wife frantically calling out to him from the first floor of their home.









						Victoria arson investigation underway after gas poured into home while family of 5 slept
					

Police and firefighters are investigating after a family of five, including three children, narrowly escaped an arson attack on their Victoria home overnight.




					vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

suffolkowner said:


> I know that line, but conceivably a country could nuke every other country in the world outside of an alliance then? And then do it again?


Conceivably a lot of things could happen.  But going by your logic, we would have already had an issue since 1945.

So we abandon international norms and what has worked since then?  Sounds like a recipe for success 😉

Nuclear weapons aren't an offensive weapon, they are a sovereignty guarantee.  Well actually that's a lie, the only Country that has used them offensively is directly South of us.  Some of their war hawks wanted to use them in Korea too but cooler heads prevailed.


----------



## Maxman1

Underway said:


> Feed Ukraine, make sure there is a Maple Leaf on every box/bag/package of food



Like this?


----------



## Maxman1

Good2Golf said:


> Tell me you’re desperate without saying you’re desperate…
> 
> This is the what, fourth or fifth “come out with your hands up” offer from RF?









MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516796965257945088


Since it's a Mazda, I guess it's Boom Boom instead of Zoom Zoom.


AlexanderM said:


> I know, right! That's why I put in the question mark, to say, what are they doing here!! Sending the jets in parts so they can say, hey man we only sent parts!


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Czech_pivo said:


> Lol, are we willing to pony up?
> Country of 38 million, G7 member, have we?
> Not by my definition, not even fricking close.


On this point, we agree completely.  Which is why I laugh at all the internet tough guy Canadians talking about what we should do to Russia.

"Oh.... you want me to do something?"..... "Oh I am really upset but not upset enough.  Someone else really ought to do something about that!"


----------



## Eye In The Sky

daftandbarmy said:


> The Russian Northern Fleet is based in the Kola Peninsula, not too far from the Finnish border. At one time it was the largest concentration of military force in the world.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In A Remote Arctic Outpost, Norway Keeps Watch On Russia's Military Buildup
> 
> 
> Warmer weather up north is opening up shipping lanes and new access to natural resources. It's also fueling a military buildup.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.npr.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Should Sweden and Finland join NATO, we'd better 'pony up' and make sure that NATO is fully 'stood to'



The ORBAT of Northern Fleet isn’t anything to scoff at.  The boomers alone there are something to consider seriously, including Borei.  









						Northern Fleet - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org
				




Naval aviation is smaller than Cold War but still exists.


----------



## CBH99

Humphrey Bogart said:


> On this point, we agree completely.  Which is why I laugh at all the internet tough guy Canadians talking about what we should do to Russia.
> 
> "Oh.... you want me to do something?"..... "Oh I am really upset but not upset enough.  Someone else really ought to do something about that!"


Sadly, I feel this dialogue accurately depicts most Canadians about most issues... "Someone else better help!"


----------



## Gunnar

Dukes of Hazzard, tank edition anyone?


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Soldier35 said:


> The crew of the Russian T-80BV tank demonstrated mastery of the tank in Ukraine. The tankers showed a steep 360-degree drift of the tank.


Amazing what enough of the good vodka will make you do....


----------



## The Bread Guy

If we're to believe RUS state media, it's all wrapped up in Mariupol ....

_*"Putin orders to cancel Azovstal steel plant storming in Mariupol and block industrial zone* - The Russian president explained his order with considerations of preserving the lives of the Russian servicemen ..."_
_*"Russian defense minister reports to Putin on liberation of Mariupol"*_
_*"Putin lauds liberation of Mariupol as success and its liberators as heroes"*_


----------



## SupersonicMax

Czech_pivo said:


> If you follow Trudeau’s love affair with Germany, based on our population compared to Germany, we are 20k personnel short of where we should be. Add to that the fact the Germany is looking to increase its armed forces members by 12% by 2025 to approx 204k, we need to add in another 12k to the 20k we’re down.
> Ask yourself what the CAF could do with another 32k bodies. We might actually be taken seriously once again and not sit at the kiddie table anymore.


We don’t need 32k more GOFOs.


----------



## Czech_pivo

SupersonicMax said:


> We don’t need 32k more GOFOs.


I agree, 32k value add bodies.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Gunnar said:


> Dukes of Hazzard, tank edition anyone?


Just a couple of good ol’boys, never meaning no harm.


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> The crew of the Russian T-80BV tank demonstrated mastery of the tank in Ukraine. The tankers showed a steep 360-degree drift of the tank.


Wheeee!


----------



## Good2Golf

In Russia, success declares you!









						Russia-Ukraine war live updates: Putin claims Mariupol 'success,' tells forces not to storm last stronghold
					

Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed "success" in Mariupol but ordered his forces not to storm Ukraine's Azovstal steel plant.




					www.nbcnews.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> In Russia, success declares you!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia-Ukraine war live updates: Putin claims Mariupol 'success,' tells forces not to storm last stronghold
> 
> 
> Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed "success" in Mariupol but ordered his forces not to storm Ukraine's Azovstal steel plant.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nbcnews.com


What a nice guy, trying to save his troops from harm by going into siege mode in time for 9 May ....


----------



## CBH99

PM tight-lipped on any details surrounding sending heavy artillery to Ukraine
					

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his government are remaining tight-lipped about Canada sending heavy artillery to Ukraine, citing 'operational security.'




					www.ctvnews.ca
				




We have heavy artillery to donate??  😕


----------



## The Bread Guy

CBH99 said:


> PM tight-lipped on any details surrounding sending heavy artillery to Ukraine
> 
> 
> Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his government are remaining tight-lipped about Canada sending heavy artillery to Ukraine, citing 'operational security.'
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> We have heavy artillery to donate??  😕


At least allegedly ....

Meanwhile, gettin' stuff to them the long-ish way around 








						Germany to transfer armored vehicles to Slovenia, then Slovenia to supply T-72 tanks to Ukraine
					

Slovenia will give Ukraine Soviet T-72 tanks, in return Germany will supply Slovenia with Marder infantry fighting vehicles and Fuchs armored personnel carriers, the DPA German news agency said.




					en.interfax.com.ua


----------



## OldSolduer

CBH99 said:


> PM tight-lipped on any details surrounding sending heavy artillery to Ukraine
> 
> 
> Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his government are remaining tight-lipped about Canada sending heavy artillery to Ukraine, citing 'operational security.'
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> We have heavy artillery to donate??  😕


Yes it does weigh alot!!! Kidding.
I have no idea why our Dear Leader is taking so long.


----------



## The Bread Guy

OldSolduer said:


> ... I have no idea why our Dear Leader is taking so long.


... especially after a major UKR lobbying group asked specifically for this sort of stuff April 14 (letter attached), and a UKR MP asked "where's ze money, Lebowski?" two days ago.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Czech_pivo said:


> I agree, 32k value add bodies.


Purple hair being the metric used for value added 🤣


CBH99 said:


> PM tight-lipped on any details surrounding sending heavy artillery to Ukraine
> 
> 
> Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his government are remaining tight-lipped about Canada sending heavy artillery to Ukraine, citing 'operational security.'
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> We have heavy artillery to donate??  😕


"Heavy Artillery"

I wouldn't call a towed howitzer that can be slingloaded by a helicopter heavy but we are pretty creative with our definitions these days.

Just like we have a "Battlegroup" in Latvia 😂


----------



## lenaitch

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> Amazing what enough of the good vodka will make you do....


Is that an anti-farm tractor evasive manoeuvre?


----------



## Underway

155mm is "heavy" artillery by weight of shot (oh I went all Nelson with that statement) not by the weight of the gun itself.  It's the largest standard NATO ordinance.  What else would you call it?  Besides, it's a politician going for a soundbite.  Being pedantic would lose the headline.


----------



## daftandbarmy

The Bread Guy said:


> ... especially after a major UKR lobbying group asked specifically for this sort of stuff April 14 (letter attached), and a UKR MP asked "where's ze money, Lebowski?" two days ago.



Well, if he'd asked for parkas instead of bombs....


----------



## KevinB

Underway said:


> 155mm is "heavy" artillery by weight of shot (oh I went all Nelson with that statement) not by the weight of the gun itself.  It's the largest standard NATO ordinance.  What else would you call it?  Besides, it's a politician going for a soundbite.  Being pedantic would lose the headline.


Since the old 175mm and 203mm stuff was withdrawn, the only Heavy Arty in NATO is Rocket Arty - but I agree saying Medium Arty loses the sound bite...


----------



## OldSolduer

Underway said:


> 155mm is "heavy" artillery by weight of shot (oh I went all Nelson with that statement) not by the weight of the gun itself.  It's the largest standard NATO ordinance.  What else would you call it?  Besides, it's a politician going for a soundbite.  Being pedantic would lose the headline.


You done did good. 😉


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Underway said:


> 155mm is "heavy" artillery by weight of shot (oh I went all Nelson with that statement) not by the weight of the gun itself.  It's the largest standard NATO ordinance.  What else would you call it?  Besides, it's a politician going for a soundbite.  Being pedantic would lose the headline.


You haven't figured it out yet 😉 I am pedantic 😄


----------



## Good2Golf

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I wouldn't call a towed howitzer that can be slingloaded by a helicopter heavy but we are pretty creative with our definitions these days.


The irony is that it’s a ‘medium’ (by NATO defn) helicopter (Ch-47 Chinook) that slings an M777, but every reasonable person calls a Chinook a heavy-lift helicopter, even though by NATO’s defn, only the Mi-26 Halo and C/MH-53 Sea/Super/King Stallion are “heavy”…heck, even a Black Hawk fits into the ‘medium’ category… 🤢


----------



## Spencer100

OldSolduer said:


> Yes it does weigh alot!!! Kidding.
> I have no idea why our Dear Leader is taking so long.


Because the supreme wish is that this will all be over by the time we get around to anything.   I really don't think Trudeau cares one way or the other just that it's over.


----------



## Good2Golf

Spencer100 said:


> Because the supreme wish is that this will all be over by the time we get around to anything.   I really don't think Trudeau cares one way or the other just that it's over.


Perhaps less ‘over’ and more ‘not impacting my polling numbers…’


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> Russian assault units are leaving Mariupol, multiple sources report this. A small part of the Russian units remains to block the Azovstal plant, the rest are transferred to other sectors of the Ukrainian front to develop an offensive there. Where the troops are going is unknown, perhaps Kharkov, Nikolaev or Kherson.


----------



## KevinB

Soldier35 said:


> Russian assault units are leaving Mariupol, multiple sources report this. A small part of the Russian units remains to block the Azovstal plant, the rest are transferred to other sectors of the Ukrainian front to develop an offensive there. Where the troops are going is unknown, perhaps Kharkov, Nikolaev or Kherson.


So how long will it take you to run away and queue WMD usage in Mariupol?


----------



## TacticalTea

The Bread Guy said:


> If we're to believe RUS state media, it's all wrapped up in Mariupol ....
> 
> _*"Putin orders to cancel Azovstal steel plant storming in Mariupol and block industrial zone* - The Russian president explained his order with considerations of preserving the lives of the Russian servicemen ..."_
> _*"Russian defense minister reports to Putin on liberation of Mariupol"*_
> _*"Putin lauds liberation of Mariupol as success and its liberators as heroes"*_


Exactly as expected...

A victory declared in Mariupol in time for 9 May, regardless of reality.


----------



## Kirkhill

Soldier35 said:


> Russian assault units are leaving Mariupol, multiple sources report this. A small part of the Russian units remains to block the Azovstal plant, the rest are transferred to other sectors of the Ukrainian front to develop an offensive there. Where the troops are going is unknown, perhaps Kharkov, Nikolaev or Kherson.



I counted 4 or 5 BMP2s and 1 or 2 BMP3s.   Is that all that could be salvaged?


----------



## TheProfessional

Soldier35 said:


> The crew of the Russian T-80BV tank demonstrated mastery of the tank in Ukraine. The tankers showed a steep 360-degree drift of the tank.


Fast & Furious 10: Mariupol Drift


----------



## Kirkhill

TacticalTea said:


> Exactly as expected...
> 
> A victory declared in Mariupol in time for 9 May, regardless of reality.



I'll be fascinated to watch the Mariupol Victory Parade - with a Ukrainian Composite Battlegroup bringing up the rear?


----------



## dapaterson

New list of Canadians sanctioned by Russia.



			https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1810343/


----------



## Spencer100

dapaterson said:


> New list of Canadians sanctioned by Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1810343/


I didn't make the list!  What's a guy to do?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Careful of the friends you keep 








						‘F*cking Shoot Them’: Chechen Fighters Executed Russian Troops Who Rebelled in Ukraine, Official Says
					

As more and more reports leak out about Russian soldiers disillusioned with the war, Ukrainian intelligence says three men who wanted out were “brutally killed” on the spot.



					www.thedailybeast.com


----------



## dapaterson

Spencer100 said:


> I didn't make the list!  What's a guy to do?


Command Op UNIFIER.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

TacticalTea said:


> Exactly as expected...
> 
> A victory declared in Mariupol in time for 9 May, regardless of reality.


I mean it took them months to mop up ISIS in Mosul so I don't think anyone seriously expected this to be any different?

Azov seems determined to fight on with the motivation being surrender = probable execution.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Plans already under way for the big 9 May parade in Mariupol (Google translation of RUS independent media article) ...


> *The pro-Russian "authorities" of Mariupol announced the march of the "Immortal Regiment" on May 9*
> 10:52, 20 April 2022
> 
> The deputy mayor of Mariupol, appointed by the head of the "DPR" Denis Pushilin, Viktoria Kalacheva, said that on May 9, a procession of the "Immortal Regiment" would take place in the city. It is reported by TASS.
> 
> “Of course, [the procession] will take place. Mariupol people are looking forward to this event,” Kalacheva said in response to a question from journalists. According to her, the "Immortal Regiment" is the "most important patriotic event" that will take place on Victory Day ...


... confirmed by RUS state media (in Russian)


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I mean it took them months to mop up ISIS in Mosul so I don't think anyone seriously expected this to be any different?
> 
> Azov seems determined to fight on with the motivation being surrender = probable execution.



There are also elements of the 36th Naval Inf Bde, the 56th Motor Bde and  the 12th National Guard Bde now ensconced with the Azov Regiment in the ironworks.   And apparently at least some of their vehicles are operational and have to ability to surprise the Russians.


----------



## Kirkhill

Meanwhile.  In other news in our world.



			'Speak softly and carry a large Javelin': Biden unveils latest $800M military aid package. Ukraine updates.
		










						Elon Musk Says He Has Commitments for $46.5 Billion in Financing for Twitter Deal
					

Elon Musk says given the lack of a response from Twitter’s board, he is now exploring a tender offer to acquire shares of Twitter directly from shareholders, though he said he hasn’t decided whether to do so.




					www.wsj.com
				












						DNC hauled in $16.8M in March
					

Fundraising has been a bright spot for the party as it prepares for a difficult 2022 midterm election.




					www.politico.com


----------



## Good2Golf

Kirkhill said:


> There are also elements of the 36th Naval Inf Bde, the 56th Motor Bde and  the 12th National Guard Bde now ensconced with the Azov Regiment in the ironworks.   And apparently at least some of their vehicles are operational and have to ability to surprise the Russians.


​


----------



## Kirkhill

The Russians seem to be having a problem with spontaneous combustion.  I hope it doesn't affect their premiums


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u8nu5f


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u8offq


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u8p50k


Bad news coming on top of sending their SAM missile and tank workers home because of supply chain problems.   Apparently they bought into Just In Time management as well.









						Ukraine-Russia War: Sanctions shut down Russian SAM production plant-GUR
					

Factory workers can either go on unpaid leave or join the Russian army in its invasion of Ukraine.




					www.jpost.com
				












						Russian tank manufacturer shuts down production
					

Sanctions really began to prove their worth in war-fighting when the Russian tank manufacturer Uralvagonzavod was forced to cease production this week. The factory, located in the town of Nizhni Tagil in the Ural mountain range about a thousand miles from Moscow, has more than 30,000 employees...




					luciantruscott.substack.com
				





Even John Deere is making life interesting 


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u8mh29


----------



## Kirkhill

Key Russian railway bridge damaged after possible act of sabotage
					

A key Russian railway bridge in the Belgorod region near the border with Ukraine has suffered extensive damage following a possible act of sabotage. The Russian authorities have confirmed the destruction of the tracks, various news outlets including the Guardian and Newsweek reported. The...




					www.railtech.com
				












						Key Russian railway bridge destroyed in Belgorod near border with Ukraine
					

Potential act of sabotage comes as Russia begins militarising border regions, signalling shift of war effort towards east Ukraine




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> Key Russian railway bridge damaged after possible act of sabotage
> 
> 
> A key Russian railway bridge in the Belgorod region near the border with Ukraine has suffered extensive damage following a possible act of sabotage. The Russian authorities have confirmed the destruction of the tracks, various news outlets including the Guardian and Newsweek reported. The...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.railtech.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Key Russian railway bridge destroyed in Belgorod near border with Ukraine
> 
> 
> Potential act of sabotage comes as Russia begins militarising border regions, signalling shift of war effort towards east Ukraine
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com



Wouldn't it be awesome if the UA let the Russians in so they could blow up the bridges behind them and keep them bottled up?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

daftandbarmy said:


> Wouldn't it be awesome if the UA let the Russians in so they could blow up the bridges behind them and keep them bottled up?


And starve them of everything that would be coming in on those trains? Hard to "liberate' a town from aggressors when you have no ammunition, food, fuel, or replacement equipment.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Boffins are gonna Boffin 


Russia and China nightmare as UK scientists analyse secrets of Putin's prized fighter jet​BRITISH and American scientists are analysing the secret long-range targeting mechanism of Russia's most advanced fighter jet, sources confirmed last night​

And their findings could make a "huge difference" in how the West conducts air-to-air combat with both Russia and China. Ukrainian troops shot down the Sukhoi Su-35S using short-range missiles two weeks ago. Specialists with the Ukrainian Air Force were able to retrieve vital and hitherto classified elements from its burnt-out remains and informed British intelligence.

The systems were transported to the Government’s Defence, Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL) at Porton Down, in Wiltshire, where boffins, joined by two experts from the US Air Force, have spent ten days examining them.

The initial assessment was deemed so promising that the systems have now been flown to Nevada, USA, for more forensic examination.

Dubbed “Flanker” by Nato, the fighter jet was conducting a so-called Suppression of Enemy Air Defences (SEAD) operation when it was unexpectedly shot down near Izium, some 75 miles from Kharkiv, in eastern Ukraine on April 3.

Its pilot was captured after safely ejecting.

The Flanker is Russia’s equivalent to the F-35 fifth generation multirole fighter which is currently used by the RAF and 14 other Nato nations - though it does not possess stealth technology.

And the prospect of Nato powers examining its sophisticated inner workings will cause consternation among air force chiefs in Russia, which operates 47 of them.

It has also sent shockwaves in China which, as Russia’s biggest defence partner, now boasts the world’s second largest fleet having signed a $2bn deal for 24 of the fighters in 2015.









						Russia and China nightmare as UK scientists analyse secrets of Putin's prized fighter jet
					

BRITISH and American scientists are analysing the secret long-range targeting mechanism of Russia's most advanced fighter jet, sources confirmed last night.




					www.express.co.uk


----------



## Colin Parkinson

The Bread Guy said:


> Careful of the friends you keep
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ‘F*cking Shoot Them’: Chechen Fighters Executed Russian Troops Who Rebelled in Ukraine, Official Says
> 
> 
> As more and more reports leak out about Russian soldiers disillusioned with the war, Ukrainian intelligence says three men who wanted out were “brutally killed” on the spot.
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedailybeast.com


the new NKVD


----------



## daftandbarmy

Colin Parkinson said:


> the new NKVD



I'm pretty sure that, in similar circumstances, my troops would have done the same.


----------



## RaceAddict

daftandbarmy said:


> The Flanker is Russia’s equivalent to the F-35 fifth generation multirole fighter



That's a bit of a stretch.


----------



## OldSolduer

Colin Parkinson said:


> the new NKVD


You’re pretty close in that assessment. The Russians have a history of that.

As well as executing political opponents abroad.


----------



## Prairie canuck

RaceAddict said:


> That's a bit of a stretch.


And yet, they still don't control the air and there's many Ukrainian aircraft still flying... 🤔🥱


----------



## Kirkhill

Thinking about Trudeau's 500 MCAD promise and now the "heavy artillery".

Why doesn't Justin just drop the 500 MCAD into the US Foreign Military Sales Programme.

800 MUSD bought 72 M777s with 2000 rounds apiece, 72 prime movers and spares, as well as 121 single use "drones/uavs/LAMs" and a bunch more Javelins.

Or do our gunners really want to get rid of our M777s and swap them out for something else?


----------



## RaceAddict

Prairie canuck said:


> And yet, they still don't control the air and there's many Ukrainian aircraft still flying... 🤔🥱



Just found this gem on the Su-35 Wiki page: (clearly the page is edited by Russians... more of Soldier35's good work?)



> On 3 April 2022, a Russian Su-35S crashed in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian forces claimed to have shot it down


----------



## Navy_Pete

KevinB said:


> We don't sign stinking conventions ​​United States[edit]​The United States has not signed the convention but has generally complied with it.[23] The passage of US warships through the Straits also raised controversy, as the convention forbids the transit of non-Black Sea nations' warships with guns of a calibre larger than eight inches (203 mm). In the 1960s, the US sent warships carrying 420 mm calibre ASROCmissiles through the Straits and so prompted Soviet protests. The Turkish government rejected the Soviet complaints by pointing out that guided missiles were not guns and that since such weapons had not existed at the time of the Convention, they were not restricted.[42]
> 
> According to Jason Ditz of Antiwar.com, the Montreux Convention is an obstacle to US naval buildup in the Black Sea because of its stipulations regulating warship traffic by nations not sharing a Black Sea coastline.[43] The US thinktank Stratfor has written that those stipulations place Turkey's relationship to the US and its obligations as a NATO member in conflict with Russia and the regulations of the Montreux Convention.[44]
> 
> 
> 
> - We don't have anything with 8" guns anymore - so we can darned tooting drive through if we want



In practical terms, that's a vaguely crazy passage, with all kinds of weird currents so pilots and tugs is more or less required. Our poor NavO was a bit stressed for good reason; it would be pretty easy to run aground outside the channel.

So convention or not, Turkey more or less controls access just by tug availability, even for the USN.

I do enjoy the pedancy that goes into interpretation of old Conventions though, like when the Russian Navy quoted a 400 year old treaty to wipe out some Somali pirates. The downside is that it just inspires the lawyers to try and draft things without loopholes, which makes it even harder to actually interpret for normal use.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Colin Parkinson said:


> the new NKVD


... just outsourced ...


----------



## MilEME09

Russia 0, Rat 1


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517229226935693312


----------



## Underway

Prairie canuck said:


> And yet, they still don't control the air and there's many Ukrainian aircraft still flying... 🤔🥱


Honestly this may be the case of following Russian doctrine.

Russia (and USSR previously) knew that they were not going to have air dominance in any campaign against NATO.  So they never plan to achieve it.  They use their aircraft differently.  USSR was more focused on air denial, that is threatening any aircraft that came into their bubble with long-range powerful SAM's etc...  Gaining complete air dominance is a NATO thing.

The problem here is that with much of their doctrine we are seeing they don't have the equipment capability or density to implement that doctrine.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Underway said:


> Honestly this may be the case of following Russian doctrine.
> 
> Russia (and USSR previously) knew that they were not going to have air dominance in any campaign against NATO.  So they never plan to achieve it.  They use their aircraft differently.  USSR was more focused on air denial, that is threatening any aircraft that came into their bubble with long-range powerful SAM's etc...  Gaining complete air dominance is a NATO thing.
> 
> The problem here is that with much of their doctrine we are seeing they don't have the equipment capability or density to implement that doctrine.


They are flying lots, >200 sorties a day for awhile now.

Lots of stuff is getting bombed and hit, again they just use their aircraft differently and lack the # of PGMs we have.


----------



## KevinB

Biden pledges $800 million in new aid to Ukraine, will ask Congress for more
					

President Biden says he will send $800 million more in military aid to help Ukraine, adding that as his authority to draw from U.S. military stockpiles surpasses $3 billion, he will need to ask Congress for more funding.




					www.defensenews.com


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> They are flying lots, >200 sorties a day for awhile now.
> 
> Lots of stuff is getting bombed and hit, again they just use their aircraft differently and lack the # of PGMs we have.


Eventually they will fly enough that by trial and error they will either refine their doctrine or run out of planes/pilots.


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> Biden pledges $800 million in new aid to Ukraine, will ask Congress for more
> 
> 
> President Biden says he will send $800 million more in military aid to help Ukraine, adding that as his authority to draw from U.S. military stockpiles surpasses $3 billion, he will need to ask Congress for more funding.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.defensenews.com


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

KevinB said:


> Eventually they will fly enough that by trial and error they will either refine their doctrine or run out of planes/pilots.


It's almost as if every Military needs a good boot stomping every once and a while to get rid of the chaff and shake off the rust 😁 and keep the knife sharp.

They'll need a few more dead General's still 😎


----------



## The Bread Guy

Germany:  happy to help (but not with our own tanks) ...








						Germany still cannot help Ukraine with tanks, heavy armored vehicles – FM
					

Germany will make a greater contribution to NATO security and will continue to provide military assistance to Ukraine, but it cannot supply Kyiv with tanks and heavy equipment, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has said.




					en.interfax.com.ua
				



From the piece


> ... The Foreign Minister said German military has compiled a list of what they can supply. As for tanks and other armored vehicles, there is currently no way to supply them. First of all, they need to be put in order so that they can operate on the battlefield. In addition, Germany needs to teach how to operate on them. She also said Germany supports its eastern NATO partners so that they can provide Ukraine with weapons that they cannot provide themselves.
> 
> Baerbock said Germany itself lacks military equipment, in particular, helicopters.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

The Bread Guy said:


> Germany:  happy to help (but not with our own tanks) ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Germany still cannot help Ukraine with tanks, heavy armored vehicles – FM
> 
> 
> Germany will make a greater contribution to NATO security and will continue to provide military assistance to Ukraine, but it cannot supply Kyiv with tanks and heavy equipment, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.interfax.com.ua
> 
> 
> 
> 
> From the piece


The truth is Germany has let its military decay to the point most of their stuff doesn't actually work or is in a bad state of disrepair.

This report is from 2018:









						German army problems 'dramatically bad', report says
					

The report highlights numerous issues with the Bundeswehr, including disrepair and a lack of staff.



					www.bbc.com
				




Do we think it got better or worse during COVID?  😉

They have nothing to offer.


----------



## McG

Humphrey Bogart said:


> The truth is Germany has let it's military decay to the point most of their stuff doesn't actually work or is in a bad state of disrepair.


Following this comment, Canada made a deliberate attempt to avoid eye contact with everyone in the room in hopes of not drawing notice before the subject could pass.


----------



## Kirkhill

Germany considers exchanging arms with Slovenia to arm Ukraine
					

Germany could circumvent its inability to arm Ukraine by exchanging arms with Slovenia to give some to Kiev as the latter undergoes a war.




					english.almayadeen.net
				






> German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had come under fire over his refusal to send heavy weapons to Ukraine from his country's stock, though his decision was backed by the German military.
> 
> "We would no longer be able to react to eventualities, and that would significantly weaken our defensive capability," Bundeswehr vice-chief Lieutenant General Markus Laubenthal had said Wednesday to explain his country's decision not to provide IFVs to Ukraine.
> 
> According to the official, if Germany were to do that, it would be unable to defend itself, promising Ukraine some one billion euros to buy weapons instead.
> 
> Kiev had schemed to buy 100 decommissioned Marders from German defense firm Rheinmetall. However, the manufacturer said they needed to be restored and it would be several months before they would be operational.
> 
> In response, Ukraine proposed an arrangement that would see Germany sending 100 of its operation Marders to Ukraine and take the restored vehicles in their place, though Scholz rejected this offer.
> 
> The deal between Slovenia and Germany would boost the latter's military capabilities, which, in turn, would allow it to send arms to Ukraine, though Russia had warned that any arms shipment would be seen as a valid military target.



Scholz has got more excuses than a used car salesman.  A fitting heir to Gerhard Schroeder.  And a fine mentor to Justin.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Soldier35 said:


> ... Despite the heavy fire, risking his life, one of the fighters hitched a wrecked armored personnel carrier to an approaching tank and the car was taken in tow ...


No tractors handy?


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Tired of having them towed away by farmers???


----------



## Kirkhill

Brit Harpoons have arrived in Odesa.  Brimstone missiles to follow once they have been mounted on vehicles.



			https://inf.news/ne/military/995145a5dd8f1d97652bad2aa86f15d5.html
		



__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/u7ht0t


----------



## Kirkhill

More on the latest US donation


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u8pkkt









						Kyiv Asked for a New Kamikaze Drone to Fight Russia. The Air Force Delivered Phoenix Ghost
					

At least 121 of the new drones are headed to Ukraine as part of the latest $800 million security package.




					www.defenseone.com
				












						Switchblade® 600 Kamikaze Drones | Suicide Drone | AeroVironment, Inc.
					

AeroVironment's Switchblade 600 kamikaze drone redefines the next generation of extended-range loitering missiles, delivering unprecedented RSTA support and high-precision optics, over 40 minutes of loitering endurance, and an anti-armor warhead for engaging larger, hardened targets at greater...




					www.avinc.com
				




Kind of a speedy procurement on a new system ... I guess they are starting with field trials with the Russians as QA inspectors.


----------



## MedCorps

MedCorps said:


> Question from a friend today that I could not answer. Interested in wisdom from the masses.
> 
> Why is the Crimean Bridge (between Russia and Kerch in occupied Crimea that spans Zuzla Island) still standing?  You would have thought that this was a deep fires strategic target to limit resupply from mainland Russia to the area.



There we go. Nice to see the Ukraine Government follows army.ca.  If you need anymore strategic targeting advice please PM me  -)









						Ukraine threatens to blow up Russia’s strategic Crimea bridge
					

Kyiv claims Moscow is using the 12-mile, £2.7 billion bridge to send troops and weapons into the annexed peninsula




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				




MC


----------



## Haggis

Russia sanctioned 61 more Canadians today.  I didn't make the cut.
My Conservative MP was a first round ban pick and he's very proud of that.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MedCorps said:


> There we go. Nice to see the Ukraine Government follows army.ca.  If you need anymore strategic targeting advice please PM me  -)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine threatens to blow up Russia’s strategic Crimea bridge
> 
> 
> Kyiv claims Moscow is using the 12-mile, £2.7 billion bridge to send troops and weapons into the annexed peninsula
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.telegraph.co.uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> MC


As does RUS state media ....








						Kremlin Slams Kiev's Threat to Bomb Crimean Bridge: It's Nothing But Announcement of Terror Attack
					

Russia launched a special military operation to demilitarise and de-Nazify Ukraine on 24 February following calls from the Donetsk and Lugansk People's republics for protection against intensifying attacks by Ukrainian troops




					sputniknews.com
				











						Russian Senator Explains Why Crimean Bridge is the 'Most Defended' One in World
					

Head of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine, Oleksiy Danilov, earlier said that the bridge connecting Crimea with mainland Russia will be targeted by the Ukrainian forces as soon as they get the opportunity to hit it.




					sputniknews.com
				



#SomeoneDothProtestTooMuch


----------



## OldSolduer

The Bread Guy said:


> As does RUS state media ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Kremlin Slams Kiev's Threat to Bomb Crimean Bridge: It's Nothing But Announcement of Terror Attack
> 
> 
> Russia launched a special military operation to demilitarise and de-Nazify Ukraine on 24 February following calls from the Donetsk and Lugansk People's republics for protection against intensifying attacks by Ukrainian troops
> 
> 
> 
> 
> sputniknews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian Senator Explains Why Crimean Bridge is the 'Most Defended' One in World
> 
> 
> Head of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine, Oleksiy Danilov, earlier said that the bridge connecting Crimea with mainland Russia will be targeted by the Ukrainian forces as soon as they get the opportunity to hit it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> sputniknews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> #SomeoneDothProtestTooMuch


Can Precision Guided Munitions be effective against this bridge? You know like launched from a Ukraine Forces B2 Stealth Bomber?


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> Tankers under fire were able to evacuate a padded Russian armored personnel carrier. A Russian armored personnel carrier was hit in the turret by an RPG shot from the APU fighters, who sat in the nearest five-story building. The crew evacuated and called for help, the Ukrainian military tried to finish off the armored personnel carrier and fired a second shot, the vehicle withstood the blow and did not catch fire. Despite the heavy fire, risking his life, one of the fighters hitched a wrecked armored personnel carrier to an approaching tank and the car was taken in tow.


Just call Uber-Green…


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517263660900655106
Another one bites the dust


----------



## MilEME09

OldSolduer said:


> Can Precision Guided Munitions be effective against this bridge? You know like launched from a Ukraine Forces B2 Stealth Bomber?


That bridge being taken out would make the supply situation they had around Kyiv look tame. Their effort in the south would likely stall or worse without the supply trains  coming from Russia.


----------



## Underway

MilEME09 said:


> That bridge being taken out would make the supply situation they had around Kyiv look tame. Their effort in the south would likely stall or worse without the supply trains  coming from Russia.


I pointed this out a while ago, but the best I could figure out why it's still standing is either a) Ukraine doesn't have effectors or b) they didn't want to give Russia fodder for propaganda or c) give Russia an excuse to mobilize more then they are.

Russia seems to be fighting with less manpower than they can actually mobilize.


----------



## FJAG

Haggis said:


> Russia sanctioned 61 more Canadians today.  I didn't make the cut.
> My Conservative MP was a first round ban pick and he's very proud of that.


I'm just on an RCAA video presentation being given by two gunners who were on Op Unifier, one of them commanded the op for a roto. She DID make the list and feels quite proud about it.

🍻


----------



## Weinie

FJAG said:


> I'm just on an RCAA video presentation being given by two gunners who were on Op Unifier, one of them commanded the op for a roto. She DID make the list and feels quite proud about it.
> 
> 🍻


I sent one of them an e-mail today. She got an MSM and made the sanctions list. I told her to wear both with pride.


----------



## MilEME09

Underway said:


> I pointed this out a while ago, but the best I could figure out why it's still standing is either a) Ukraine doesn't have effectors or b) they didn't want to give Russia fodder for propaganda or c) give Russia an excuse to mobilize more then they are.
> 
> Russia seems to be fighting with less manpower than they can actually mobilize.


Likely they can't accurately hit it right now, maybe the Switchblade 600 can on a one way trip?


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> Likely they can't accurately hit it right now, maybe the Switchblade 600 can on a one way trip?


80km max range on a Switchblade 600, and it's only got a Javelin HEAT warhead... We're talking a major bridge with parallel spans here; an ATGM warhead might punch a nice neat hole, but to take down that king of infrastructure you'll need something much heavier. Much of the bridge is actually on spits of land or islands. The most vulnerable part looks to be the span through which shipping passes- but that's also quite close to land; I have to imagine Kerch Fortress is probably well garrisoned and commands the airspace in the area.

Maybe cruise missiles or SRBMs, if they have precise enough ones that could avoid being shot down?


----------



## daftandbarmy

brihard said:


> 80km max range on a Switchblade 600, and it's only got a Javelin HEAT warhead... We're talking a major bridge with parallel spans here; an ATGM warhead might punch a nice neat hole, but to take down that king of infrastructure you'll need something much heavier. Much of the bridge is actually on spits of land or islands. The most vulnerable part looks to be the span through which shipping passes- but that's also quite close to land; I have to imagine Kerch Fortress is probably well garrisoned and commands the airspace in the area.
> 
> Maybe cruise missiles or SRBMs, if they have precise enough ones that could avoid being shot down?



I know a guy....


----------



## Zipperhead99

Now this is interesting if true.  I am assuming it would not be a front line role, but as a senior military advisor type??









						Military officer retires, heads to Ukraine amid sex misconduct investigation
					

A senior leader in the Canadian Armed Forces has retired and travelled to Ukraine to help defend the country from Russia's invasion while still under investigation for alleged sexual misconduct.




					www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## MilEME09

brihard said:


> 80km max range on a Switchblade 600, and it's only got a Javelin HEAT warhead... We're talking a major bridge with parallel spans here; an ATGM warhead might punch a nice neat hole, but to take down that king of infrastructure you'll need something much heavier. Much of the bridge is actually on spits of land or islands. The most vulnerable part looks to be the span through which shipping passes- but that's also quite close to land; I have to imagine Kerch Fortress is probably well garrisoned and commands the airspace in the area.
> 
> Maybe cruise missiles or SRBMs, if they have precise enough ones that could avoid being shot down?


Rig up one of those Neptune's?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Zipperhead99 said:


> Now this is interesting if true.  I am assuming it would not be a front line role, but as a senior military advisor type??
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Military officer retires, heads to Ukraine amid sex misconduct investigation
> 
> 
> A senior leader in the Canadian Armed Forces has retired and travelled to Ukraine to help defend the country from Russia's invasion while still under investigation for alleged sexual misconduct.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca



I know a guy who left the British Army 'under a cloud' and turned up in Croatia commanding an armoured brigade during their last dust up, in the 90s.

He did quite well, apparently


----------



## OldSolduer

Zipperhead99 said:


> Now this is interesting if true.  I am assuming it would not be a front line role, but as a senior military advisor type??
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Military officer retires, heads to Ukraine amid sex misconduct investigation
> 
> 
> A senior leader in the Canadian Armed Forces has retired and travelled to Ukraine to help defend the country from Russia's invasion while still under investigation for alleged sexual misconduct.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca


I would reckon he'd be a pretty good trainer for senior commanders and staff.


----------



## KevinB

OldSolduer said:


> I would reckon he'd be a pretty good trainer for senior commanders and staff.


I suspect he will want a more active role for a bit.  Maybe a DA Troop or Squadron….


----------



## Maxman1

daftandbarmy said:


> I know a guy....



I think a three man crew might be needed.


----------



## Maxman1

MilEME09 said:


> Russia 0, Rat 1
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517229226935693312


----------



## Maxman1

Underway said:


> 155mm is "heavy" artillery by weight of shot



It's medium. Heavy is 203mm (8 inch) and up.


Underway said:


> What else would you call it?



Medium artillery.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Maxman1 said:


> It's medium. Heavy is 203mm (8 inch) and up.
> 
> 
> Medium artillery.


Navy guys eh!? @Underway  with your little 57mm pee shooter 😁


----------



## Kirkhill

Putin’s war has been a fiasco. It’s about to get worse
					

There can be no peace deal with the Kremlin. This would be the worst time for Nato to lose its nerve




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				






> Putin’s war has been a fiasco. It’s about to get worse​There can be no peace deal with the Kremlin. This would be the worst time for Nato to lose its nerve
> CON COUGHLIN
> DEFENCE EDITOR
> 21 April 2022 • 6:00am
> 
> If the first phase of Vladimir Putin’s invasion plan for Ukraine has turned out to be an unmitigated disaster for the Russian president, there is little evidence to suggest his next effort to colonise large tracts of Ukrainian territory will fare much better.
> Having abandoned his initial plan to capture Kyiv and replace the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with a pro-Russian puppet regime, Mr Putin has been forced, thanks to the heroic resistance of the city’s defenders, to accept the limitations of his military ambitions. Instead of conquering the entire country, the Kremlin has been obliged to regroup its forces to concentrate on capturing territory in the Donbas region in the south east.
> And, judging by the early exchanges in what Moscow is calling the “second phase” of its “special military operation” against Ukraine, there is every indication that the Russian military will continue to struggle against the determined resistance of the Ukrainian forces.
> 
> Although the Russian offensive in the east is in its early stages, the latest Western intelligence reports show that, despite their superior firepower and numbers, Russian forces are failing to make sufficient headway, with the Ukrainians repelling numerous attempted advances.
> According to the latest assessment published by the Ministry of Defence yesterday, “Russia’s ability to progress continues to be impacted by the environmental, logistical and technical challenges that have beset them so far, combined with the resilience of the highly-motivated Ukrainian armed forces.” The current informed view in Whitehall security circles, therefore, is that the battle for the Donbas will develop into an attritional conflict which will last for many months.
> Nothing better sums up the inability of Russian forces to make a decisive breakthrough than their struggle to capture the key port of Mariupol which, despite being levelled by eight weeks of unremitting bombardment, has refused to accede to Russian demands to surrender.
> The longer Ukrainian forces manage to resist the Russian advance, moreover, the more likely the Kremlin is to use banned weaponry, such as cluster bombs, in its desperation to achieve even a token victory. There is speculation that Mr Putin might resort to using tactical nuclear weapons to clear out *the last remnants of the 2,500 Ukrainian fighters said to be holding out in Mariupol*, an escalation that not even Nato could ignore.
> Even if the Russian military, with its badly trained and unmotivated forces, were to succeed in capturing the Black Sea port, it would be a Pyrrhic victory.
> Part of Mr Putin’s justification for launching his assault was the need to protect the pro-Russian inhabitants of cities like Mariupol. With their once vibrant city lying in ruins, it is unlikely there is much pro-Russian sympathy in evidence there today.
> Certainly, from Mr Putin’s perspective, if the conflict drags on without an end in sight, ordinary Russians themselves are less likely to be willing to accept the nightly diet of propaganda they are fed by state-owned broadcasters. A week after the sinking of Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, most Russians are none the wiser about the true causes of its destruction by Ukrainian anti-ship missiles.
> The Kremlin is also doing its best to conceal the extent of Russian casualties, which are said to be well in excess of 10,000 dead. The heavy death toll suffered by invading Russian forces can be seen from *evidence provided to the Commons Foreign Affairs Committee this week, which shows that nearly half of the 8,000 mercenaries deployed by the Kremlin-controlled Wagner Group to Ukraine have been killed on the battlefield.*
> Add to this the litany of war crimes that are being committed in Mr Putin’s name, from the wanton massacre of innocent civilians in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha to parading captured British fighters on Russian television, and it is hard to see how even the most talented Kremlin propagandist can portray the Russian invasion as a success story.
> With the Kremlin resorting to ever more desperate measures, Boris Johnson is right to warn that there is little immediate prospect of negotiating a peace deal to end the conflict – not least because, after all the lies Mr Putin has uttered about his intentions towards Ukraine, no sane Western leader should ever again trust the Russian leader to keep his word.
> In the absence of a diplomatic solution to the conflict, therefore, it is vital that the Western alliance is united in its determination to hold the Kremlin to account for its appalling conduct. There must be no back-sliding by countries such as Germany, which seem to believe that their economic interests should take priority over confronting tyranny.
> Even Mr Putin must be starting to realise that his decision to invade Ukraine has back-fired in spectacular fashion. And, so long as Western leaders maintain a united front in their support for Ukraine, there is every chance the Russian leader’s predicament could get a great deal worse.



And









						Russia is no longer the dominant power in Eastern Europe
					

Whatever happens, the combined efforts of the former Soviet states have destroyed the idea of Russian military preeminence




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				






> Russia is no longer the dominant power in Eastern Europe​Whatever happens, *the combined efforts of the former Soviet states have destroyed the idea of Russian military preeminence*
> ROBERT CLARK21 April 2022 • 3:22pm
> 
> Bolstered by the Red Army's fearsome reputation in World War Two, many analysts believed that the Russian military was comfortably Eastern Europe's premier military power. This conjecture is now being seriously challenged.
> Yes, Russia has a formidable nuclear arsenal, but every other aspect of its military machine – from leadership to hardware – has been severely lacking. Indeed, one could argue that Russia's star has fallen, and that, in unison, the combined powers of many of its Eastern neighbours, including Ukraine, have put an end to the notion that Russia would ever be capable of a blitzkrieg-style takeover of its former territories.
> Following the unsuccessful assault on Kyiv, Putin is desperately searching for a hollow military victory that he can sell to the Russian people before the May 9th Victory Day parade. Incredibly, Russian losses so far in the conflict (potentially up to 20,000 killed) amount to a higher attrition rate than that suffered by the British at the Battle of the Somme.
> 
> Putin may have declared his support for the so-called breakaway republics as a not-too-subtle _casus belli _days before the invasion began, but these Russian-speaking towns and villages have displayed the same stoic Ukrainian national identity as the rest of the country, in the face of growing Russian occupation and barbarism.
> Whilst Putin claims that he is helping Russian speaking Ukrainians, in fact it is the Russian speaking towns and cities, including Mariupol, and Kharkiv, which have been hardest hit, in his efforts to erase Ukraine as a modern nation state.
> Thus Putin has once more underestimated the pride and heroism of the Ukrainian people, launching his ham-fisted assault this weekend using mainly reconstituted units along a 300-mile wide front, initially concentrating their forces around Izyum, and Severodonetsk.
> *The support provided by other Eastern European powers has been remarkable. Further to the weapons provided by the UK and the US, Ukrainian forces have been, or soon will be, considerably bolstered by Soviet-designed T-72 tanks and BVP-1 infantry vehicles from the Czech Republic and Soviet-era S-300 air defence missile systems from the Slovakia. Poland, meanwhile, has worked tirelessly taking in millions of Ukrainian refugees, enabling the President Zelensky to focus his efforts on military strategy. *
> Russian forces have seen some initial success so far in the new battle for the Donbas. Their use of air power has increased by half to include 200 sorties on Monday, and the city of Rubizhne is close to occupation with smaller villages nearby in Russian control. The Russian long-range fires and slow advance has continued.
> However, whist these minor Russian gains occur, Ukrainian defences are continuing to hold, and in war, maths is key. Russia simply lacks the numbers to seize by force from a well defended and highly motivated opponent key ground, and then in turn to hold that ground from Ukrainian counter-attacks.
> *Most estimates place total Russian losses at 25-32% of their pre-invasion figure. With approximately 76 Battalion Tactical Groups (each comprising roughly 800-1,000 soldiers) left in Ukraine, there are another 22 undergoing refit with a further 12 almost combat-ineffective units tied up in Mariupol. This leaves at most 110 BTG available, in time, for the assault in the Donbas. At present its more like 80.
> Meanwhile Ukraine have at least the same amount currently in defensive positions across this new front line*. An attacking force requires three times the amount of troops, at a minimum. The maths alone spells Russia’s military defeat in the Donbas.
> It’s important to note too that *Russia has never even exercised this many troops before under a unified command*; further logistical and command problems already exposed will be further exasperated.
> This next phase of the war in Ukraine will be different: a much heavier Russian reliance on artillery, the intensity of the fighting doubling that of what came before. And double it shall, for Putin cannot afford to lose this battle, desperate to show some significant military success in time for the Victory Day celebrations. He knows that losing the Donbas is likely the only thing to change public opinion back in Russia.
> So we are now entering the most critical phase of the war. But whatever happens, *it seems likely that Russia will never again restore its former reputation as the strongest power in Eastern Europe. The combined efforts of Ukraine, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and other former Soviet states, have made sure of that.*
> _Robert Clark is Director of the Defence and Security Unit at Civitas. Prior to this Robert served in the British military for 13 years. _



The Easterners are certainly motivated.  Their collective nightmare only ended 30 years ago.  And the Ukraine is a constant reminder of what they have escaped.


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukrainian forces are preparing for battle by training in UK
					

Dozens of troops being taught to use armoured patrol and troop carriers, as Vladimir Putin steps up his offensive in the east




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				






> Ukrainian forces are preparing for battle by training in UK​Dozens of troops being taught to use armoured patrol and troop carriers, as Vladimir Putin steps up his offensive in the east
> 
> ByJames Crisp, EUROPE EDITOR ; Ben Riley-Smith, POLITICAL EDITOR and Dominic Nicholls, DEFENCE AND SECURITY EDITOR21 April 2022 • 10:00pm
> 
> A Ukrainian soldier holds part of a Russian missile after fighting in the village of Berezivka on Thursday CREDIT: Efrem Lukatsky
> 
> Britain is training Ukrainians in the use of armoured vehicles on UK soil to help Kyiv’s forces launch counter-offensives against Vladimir Putin’s invading army in eastern Ukraine.
> Boris Johnson confirmed for the first time that dozens of Ukrainian troops were being taught to use armoured patrol and troop carriers, as the Russian president stepped up his offensive in the east.
> Mr Johnson said: “I can say that we are currently training Ukrainians in Poland in the use of anti-aircraft defence and actually in the UK in the use of armoured vehicles.”
> Western officials on Thursday said Russian forces continued to operate in relatively long convoys on single roads, making themselves vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks.
> The British vehicles are designed to be used in offensive operations as they can keep pace with tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.
> 
> The vehicles include the Samaritan, primarily used as an ambulance, Sultan, from which commanders would direct the battle, and Samson, a recovery vehicle equipped with a powerful winch to lift engines and fix damaged tanks.
> 
> Ukrainian troops are also being trained on patrol vehicles designed to give extra protection to soldiers moving between bases.
> Russian military leaders under pressure​The Western official predicted that Moscow’s military leaders would be under huge pressure to deliver results, but said Russia was still in a position to win the war.
> Putin would not want to celebrate May 9, when Russia marks the end of the Second World War, he said, “on the back of Russian forces being ritually humiliated in Ukraine, which is pretty much what's been happening so far.”
> The UK hit key Russian commanders in its latest round of 26 sanctions against Moscow, including Lt Colonel Azatbek Omurbekov, the commander dubbed the “butcher of Bucha”.
> The US also stepped up its support to Ukraine with an $800 million weapons package which includes new, bespoke “Phoenix Ghost” drones fast-tracked specifically to help fight Russia.
> 
> A US department of defence official described the Phoenix as a "one-way” drone that "delivers a punch" in a “kamikaze” attack after loitering in the air while identifying targets.
> Joe Biden, the US president, said the aid was tailored to help Ukrainians defend the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine.
> “We’re sending it directly to the frontlines of freedom,” he said before warning Mr Putin would never succeed in occupying the country.
> Mr Putin on Thursday claimed to have captured the besieged city of Mariupol, however it later emerged he had ordered his men to blockade rather than attack 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers holding out at the Azovstal steel plant.
> The Telegraph spoke to one soldier who said they could not surrender because they would all be killed. Mr Biden has called for the Russians to give the men safe passage.


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukrainian forces are preparing for battle by training in UK
					

Dozens of troops being taught to use armoured patrol and troop carriers, as Vladimir Putin steps up his offensive in the east




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				






> Ukrainian forces are preparing for battle by training in UK​Dozens of troops being taught to use armoured patrol and troop carriers, as Vladimir Putin steps up his offensive in the east
> 
> ByJames Crisp, EUROPE EDITOR ; Ben Riley-Smith, POLITICAL EDITOR and Dominic Nicholls, DEFENCE AND SECURITY EDITOR21 April 2022 • 10:00pm
> 
> A Ukrainian soldier holds part of a Russian missile after fighting in the village of Berezivka on Thursday CREDIT: Efrem Lukatsky
> 
> Britain is training Ukrainians in the use of armoured vehicles on UK soil to help Kyiv’s forces launch counter-offensives against Vladimir Putin’s invading army in eastern Ukraine.
> Boris Johnson confirmed for the first time that dozens of Ukrainian troops were being taught to use armoured patrol and troop carriers, as the Russian president stepped up his offensive in the east.
> Mr Johnson said: “I can say that we are currently training Ukrainians in Poland in the use of anti-aircraft defence and actually in the UK in the use of armoured vehicles.”
> Western officials on Thursday said Russian forces continued to operate in relatively long convoys on single roads, making themselves vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks.
> The British vehicles are designed to be used in offensive operations as they can keep pace with tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.
> 
> The vehicles include the Samaritan, primarily used as an ambulance, Sultan, from which commanders would direct the battle, and Samson, a recovery vehicle equipped with a powerful winch to lift engines and fix damaged tanks.
> 
> Ukrainian troops are also being trained on patrol vehicles designed to give extra protection to soldiers moving between bases.
> Russian military leaders under pressure​The Western official predicted that Moscow’s military leaders would be under huge pressure to deliver results, but said Russia was still in a position to win the war.
> Putin would not want to celebrate May 9, when Russia marks the end of the Second World War, he said, “on the back of Russian forces being ritually humiliated in Ukraine, which is pretty much what's been happening so far.”
> The UK hit key Russian commanders in its latest round of 26 sanctions against Moscow, including Lt Colonel Azatbek Omurbekov, the commander dubbed the “butcher of Bucha”.
> The US also stepped up its support to Ukraine with an $800 million weapons package which includes new, bespoke “Phoenix Ghost” drones fast-tracked specifically to help fight Russia.
> 
> A US department of defence official described the Phoenix as a "one-way” drone that "delivers a punch" in a “kamikaze” attack after loitering in the air while identifying targets.
> Joe Biden, the US president, said the aid was tailored to help Ukrainians defend the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine.
> “We’re sending it directly to the frontlines of freedom,” he said before warning Mr Putin would never succeed in occupying the country.
> Mr Putin on Thursday claimed to have captured the besieged city of Mariupol, however it later emerged he had ordered his men to blockade rather than attack 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers holding out at the Azovstal steel plant.
> The Telegraph spoke to one soldier who said they could not surrender because they would all be killed. Mr Biden has called for the Russians to give the men safe passage.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517134970300555265

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517111330322403334


----------



## Kirkhill

Russian forces deploy up to 25 battalion tactical groups in Izium direction
					

In the Izium direction, the enemy deployed up to 25 battalion tactical groups to conduct combat actions. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				












						Russian forces capture 42 villages in Donetsk region but Ukraine could win them back, says official
					

Russian forces captured 42 villages in the eastern Donetsk region on Thursday, Ukrainian officials said.




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				






> Russian forces captured 42 villages in the eastern Donetsk region on Thursday, Ukrainian officials said.
> 
> An aide of President Volodymyr Zelensky said the captured villages did not mean Russia had won, and Ukrainian forces could shortly regain control of them.
> 
> Olena Symonenko said: “Today 42 villages were added to the list of those that have been occupied. This is at the expense of the Donetsk region.
> 
> “This happened today and it might be that our forces will win them back tomorrow.”


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517134970300555265
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517111330322403334


I mean the Baltic's pretty narrow in places, that could actually create some serious hazards to shipping, especially if enough sink😁


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517134970300555265
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517111330322403334


----------



## The Bread Guy

I'm surprised the web editors haven't been invited in ... for a chat yet ...

*“Oligarch-owned tabloid deletes article reporting 10,000 Russian soldiers dead in Ukraine” (Washington Examiner)*
*“Pro-Kremlin outlet deletes post reporting 13,000 Russian soldiers dead in Ukraine” (Washington Examiner)*
*22 Mar 2022: “Pro-Kremlin Newspaper Posts Russian Death Toll Of Almost 10,000, Then Deletes It” (USA govt funded media) *


----------



## Underway

Maxman1 said:


> It's medium. Heavy is 203mm (8 inch) and up.
> 
> 
> Medium artillery.


Pffft arbitrary numbers... have you ever picked up one of those shells?  They are _heavy_ 

So what you are saying is that NATO doesn't produce heavy artillery anymore then?  As 155mm is the biggest we make of a NATO standard (individual countries may vary, but NATO standard is 155mm).



Humphrey Bogart said:


> Navy guys eh!? @Underway with your little 57mm pee shooter


It's not how big it is it's how you use it (I use it for missile defense)!  And if I'm using 57mm for artillery then we have a serious problem as I'm probably standing the ship into danger being that close to shore!


----------



## ueo

Underway said:


> I pointed this out a while ago, but the best I could figure out why it's still standing is either a) Ukraine doesn't have effectors or b) they didn't want to give Russia fodder for propaganda or c) give Russia an excuse to mobilize more then they are.
> 
> Russia seems to be fighting with less manpower than they can actually mobilize.


Effectors? Infantry effectors or armoured effectors or Air Force effectors. I thought I was good at inventing new terms. Sounds a bit like those Layons commercials.


----------



## ueo

Underway said:


> Pffft arbitrary numbers... have you ever picked up one of those shells?  They are _heavy_
> 
> So what you are saying is that NATO doesn't produce heavy artillery anymore then?  As 155mm is the biggest we make of a NATO standard (individual countries may vary, but NATO standard is 155mm).
> 
> 
> It's not how big it is it's how you use it (I use it for missile defense)!  And if I'm using 57mm for artillery then we have a serious problem as I'm probably standing the ship into danger being that close to shore!


Did a shoot with this weapon in the early 90's in Meaford. Impressive fire for effect but not sustainable for any duration. Don't know the mag capacity tho'. Steaming in lazy figure 8's  in Georgian Bay did cause some local angst and might not be a recommended COA in an active theater.


----------



## KevinB

Underway said:


> Pffft arbitrary numbers... have you ever picked up one of those shells?  They are _heavy_
> 
> So what you are saying is that NATO doesn't produce heavy artillery anymore then?  As 155mm is the biggest we make of a NATO standard (individual countries may vary, but NATO standard is 155mm).


MLRS has entered the chat…


----------



## daftandbarmy

Scratch one 13km long convoy:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513098372634263553


----------



## rmc_wannabe

daftandbarmy said:


> Scratch one 13km long convoy:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513098372634263553


I... I don't think the Russian Ground Forces have an AAR process....


----------



## Spencer100

He has balls and a laugh


----------



## AlexanderM

Here's a good thread on the artillery from the former commanding general of the US 7th Army.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517507077215764481


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517515762935775232


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Russian forces captured 42 villages in the eastern Donetsk region on Thursday, Ukrainian officials said.



Worthless without a definition of "village".  Borodino was a small collection of peasant buildings around a church (one of several collections of peasant buildings with names in the battlefield area), but gave its name to a battle.


----------



## The Bread Guy

rmc_wannabe said:


> I... I don't think the Russian Ground Forces have an AAR process....


How do you say #EveryRotoIsRoto0 in Russian?


----------



## Kirkhill

Another incident of spontaneous combustion to match yesterday's

Yesterday it was the Anti Aircraft design bureau in Tsver and a chemical plant in Kineshma.  Today it is the Russian Rocket and Spacecraft Scientific Center in Korolyov.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u9j0vi


----------



## Kirkhill

Railways and Dams



			https://ukranews.com/en/news/851615-freight-train-unexpectedly-derails-in-russian-belgorod
		



__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u9hsql









						Krasnodar Krai, Kuban: dam  collapsed near Fyodorovska village Krasnodar - Map of Latest News and incidents from Russia in English - russia.liveuamap.com
					

Krasnodar Krai, Kuban: dam  collapsed near Fyodorovska village. Explore Russia local news alerts & today's headlines geolocated on live map on website or application. Focus on politics, military news and security alerts




					russia.liveuamap.com


----------



## Kirkhill

r/ukraine
					

r/ukraine: HERE УКРАЇНА TAKES CENTER STAGE — The purpose of r/Ukraine is to amplify Ukrainian voices. We are at war, so content is tightly moderated …




					www.reddit.com
				












						Details become known of how essential delivery to Mariupol took place
					

IRYNA BALACHUK - FRIDAY, 22 APRIL 2022, 10:18




					www.pravda.com.ua


----------



## OldSolduer

Kirkhill said:


> r/ukraine
> 
> 
> r/ukraine: HERE УКРАЇНА TAKES CENTER STAGE — The purpose of r/Ukraine is to amplify Ukrainian voices. We are at war, so content is tightly moderated …
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reddit.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Details become known of how essential delivery to Mariupol took place
> 
> 
> IRYNA BALACHUK - FRIDAY, 22 APRIL 2022, 10:18
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.pravda.com.ua


Ukraine version of Stalingrad. 

I have no words to describe the courage the defenders of the Steel Plant have. Tremendous.


----------



## Kirkhill

Nuland declares that the US has already supplied MRLS systems to Ukraine.



> *- As far as I understand, MLRS is not delivered yet? There are also questions about planes - their supply is blocked, and this problem is public.*
> 
> - We already supply MLRS systems. And not only did we start doing it. In addition, we are currently working with other NATO allies to give Ukraine more jet systems.
> 
> There are also several NATO nations that supply you with components that allow you to take off more aircraft. And you now have more aircraft on combat duty than a week ago, as a result of the fact that you received spare parts from the allies and so on.
> 
> This is a direct consequence of the help of the allies.
> 
> Therefore, it looks like this: with the changes on the battlefield, Ukraine informs us of its needs, and we provide as much from this list as we can.
> 
> So, to be absolutely clear, I will list: MLRS are already supplied; there are allies working on aircraft; and in addition, there are a huge number of spare parts for military aircraft, which are already changing the situation.











						Вікторія Нуланд: у разі ядерного удару Україна не залишиться наодинці
					

США вже почали постачати Україні реактивні системи залпового вогню. Також держави НАТО допомагають ЗСУ поповнити авіапарк...




					www.eurointegration.com.ua


----------



## Kirkhill

Meanwhile Chancellor Scholz of Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrat Party is concerned that if Germany donates tanks it will draw NATO into a nuclear war.









						Scholz says top priority is avoiding NATO confrontation with Russia
					

NATO must avoid a direct military confrontation with Russia that could lead to a third world war, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in an interview with Der Spiegel when asked about Germany's failure to deliver heavy weapons to Ukraine.




					www.reuters.com
				






> He (Gerhard Schroeder)  is the chairman of the board of Nord Stream AG and of Rosneft, after having been hired as a global manager by investment bank Rothschild, and also the chairman of the board of football club Hannover 96.
> 
> Schröder has been criticized for colluding with Vladimir Putin's Russia and being complicit in the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine because of his close ties to the Russian state. On 1 March 2022, Schröder's entire staff including long-time office manager Albrecht Funk resigned due to Schröder's alliances with Russia and Putin directly.[2] On 8 March 2022 the Public Prosecutor General initiated proceedings related to accusations against Schröder of complicity in crimes against humanity due to his role in Russian state-owned corporations.[3] On the same day his party initiated proceedings to expel him from the SPD.[4] Shortly before the formal vote to strip him of the honorary citizenship of his hometown of Hanover, Schröder wrote that he relinquished the honour.[5] The CDU/CSU group demanded that Schröder is included in the European Union sanctions against individuals with ties to the Putin regime.[6]


----------



## Kirkhill

And how does our armour stack up?


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u8x70d


----------



## KevinB

White House appoints Ukraine security aid coordinator
					

The White House announced Thursday it has appointed a retired three-star general who previously helped coordinate the U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition to manage the steadily increasing influx of military assistance for Ukraine.




					www.defensenews.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> And how does our armour stack up?
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u8x70d


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> And how does our armour stack up?
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u8x70d


I'd be curious abut the blackface deformation - those are some pretty big holes and a lot of plate is missing around the impact points.


----------



## McG

It would seem we sent four howitzers from Shilo.


			https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-m777-howitzer-russia-heavy-artillery-1.6427762


----------



## Jarnhamar

Kirkhill said:


> Another incident of spontaneous combustion to match yesterday's
> 
> Yesterday it was the Anti Aircraft design bureau in Tsver and a chemical plant in Kineshma.  Today it is the Russian Rocket and Spacecraft Scientific Center in Korolyov.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u9j0vi



That's the stuff.


----------



## brihard

Jarnhamar said:


> That's the stuff.


I read a short but interesting thread on the chemical plant. This could be “grind war industries to a halt” bad for Russia, even moreso with sanctions. The USSR / RuF’s “build one fuckoff big one” approach to industry is gonna bite them hard on this.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517510440598843394


----------



## MilEME09

McG said:


> It would seem we sent four howitzers from Shilo.
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-m777-howitzer-russia-heavy-artillery-1.6427762












						Canada has sent heavy artillery and ammunition to Ukraine
					

Canada has sent a number of M777 howitzers and ammunition from the Canadian Armed Forces to the Security Forces of Ukraine, fulfilling the prime minister's promise to send heavy artillery to the embattled country.




					www.ctvnews.ca
				




Key note the PM said stocks will be replenished, so new order to BAE for M777s? Can we maybe add a few dozen?


----------



## OldSolduer

McG said:


> It would seem we sent four howitzers from Shilo.
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-m777-howitzer-russia-heavy-artillery-1.6427762


Wow. I'm not sure what to say about that. It seems ....underwhelming.


----------



## OldSolduer

brihard said:


> I read a short but interesting thread on the chemical plant. This could be “grind war industries to a halt” bad for Russia, even moreso with sanctions. The USSR / RuF’s “build one fuckoff big one” approach to industry is gonna bite them hard on this.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517510440598843394


The old Soviet model was similar as the management of industry was centrally controlled. Mind you, Stalin moved his industry east of the Urals so Hitler's Luftwaffe could not bomb the crap out of them.


----------



## JLB50

MilEME09 said:


> Canada has sent heavy artillery and ammunition to Ukraine
> 
> 
> Canada has sent a number of M777 howitzers and ammunition from the Canadian Armed Forces to the Security Forces of Ukraine, fulfilling the prime minister's promise to send heavy artillery to the embattled country.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Key note the PM said stocks will be replenished, so new order to BAE for M777s? Can we maybe add a few dozen?


Maybe the Procurement people will put a rush on it so they can be delivered in the next 10 years.


----------



## suffolkowner

Maxman1 said:


> It's medium. Heavy is 203mm (8 inch) and up.
> 
> 
> Medium artillery.


extra medium


MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517515762935775232











						Ukraine Situation Report: France Sends Howitzers, Polish Tanks Could Follow
					

More weaponry is pouring into Ukraine as Russia's eastern offensive picks up steam.




					www.thedrive.com
				




posted in the canada tanks thread. UK tanks to Poland and more Polish T-72's to Ukraine. Too bad we can't wont do the same


----------



## Jarnhamar

brihard said:


> I read a short but interesting thread on the chemical plant. This could be “grind war industries to a halt” bad for Russia, even moreso with sanctions. The USSR / RuF’s “build one fuckoff big one” approach to industry is gonna bite them hard on this.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517510440598843394


I believe it. There seems to be enough single points of failure in these industries. 


As far as terrorism goes my thoughts are that it's is most effective against a modern society when it's deathless. If you attack and kill people then they rally behind the government out of fear and want protection. If you make people's lives hell but remove that fear of loss of life then their anger gets turned towards the government for not protecting them.

If deaths aren't a barrier then there's hundreds of ways to use toxic industrial chemicals or materials against people. Most (all?) cities still use chlorine for their water purification process. Crack open one of those chlorine CN rail cars and you can take out a small sized city if it's down wind. 


I'm surprised there isn't more domestic terrorisim against the Russian government by their own people already. Maybe the more they slide towards North Korea's opulence we'll see more.


----------



## McG

OldSolduer said:


> Wow. I'm not sure what to say about that. It seems ....underwhelming.


To be fair, it is more than 10% of what Canada owns.


----------



## Haggis

JLB50 said:


> Maybe the Procurement people will put a rush on it so they can be delivered in the next 10 years.


Sooner than that.  In early 2025 we will see "A re-elected Liberal/NDP government will buy new artillery for the Canadian Army."


----------



## Skysix

Ukrainian paramedic with personal defense weapon. Note the two 5.45 and single 7.62 bullet holes just left of the ambulance jumpseat.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Skysix said:


> Ukrainian paramedic with personal defense weapon. Note the two 5.45 and single 7.62 bView attachment 70282View attachment 70283ullet holes just left of the ambulance jumpseat.




Dude.... I don't know about you but the bundhook was the last thing I noticed in this picture....


----------



## Skysix

daftandbarmy said:


> Dude.... I don't know about you but the bundhook was the last thing I noticed in this picture....


My medic is almost a lookalike. So almost immune.😁


----------



## Skysix

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u6ck2f


----------



## brihard

Skysix said:


> Ukrainian paramedic with personal defense weapon. Note the two 5.45 and single 7.62 bullet holes just left of the ambulance jumpseat.View attachment 70282View attachment 70283


Why did she bring an unserious weapon to a serious war?


----------



## KevinB

brihard said:


> Why did she bring an unserious weapon to a serious war?


Many US Companies donated weapons to Ukraine -- she just drew the short straw.


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> My medic is almost a lookalike. So almost immune.😁


Looks like a well qualified paramedic.  She could raise the dead.


----------



## KevinB

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/22/russia-ukraine-war-news-mariupol-live-updates/#link-UPWTW3IV4BBTJMYOP2CZFI46LU
		


By Kim Bellware6:49 p.m.
Link copied

Satellite images taken over the devastated port city of Mariupol on Thursday show another mass grave where an estimated 1,000 residents may be buried, according to the city’s mayor. 
The images were captured over the village of Vynohradne on the outskirts of Mariupol.
“We will see more and more such burials. Unfortunately. Their territory will expand. Because the death toll is in the tens of thousands,” Mariupol Mayor Vadym Boychenko said via Telegram. He noted the death toll could ultimately rise to near 15,000 as residents in the besieged city remain cut off from fresh supplies of food, water and medicine.
Sightings of the apparent mass grave near Vynohradne come a day after satellite images revealed a mass grave in the Russian-occupied village of Manhush, roughly 12 miles west of Mariupol.
The images, provided Thursday to The Washington Post by Maxar Technologies, show several rows of graves in Manhush in four distinct sections, each measuring nearly 280 feet.
Mariupol, a strategic port city in eastern Ukraine, has been heavily bombarded by Russian forces for the past month. Moscow claimed victory over the city Thursday even though Ukrainian forces remain holed up in a steel factory.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517570177654837250


----------



## Remius

Skysix said:


> Ukrainian paramedic with personal defense weapon. Note the two 5.45 and single 7.62 bullet holes just left of the ambulance jumpseat.View attachment 70282View attachment 70283


Post this in the new dress regs thread.  See what we could look like?  World ending!


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517605686741450753


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517611563997356034


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517637099037548546


----------



## Skysix

brihard said:


> Why did she bring an unserious weapon to a serious war?


Size. PDW's are small and short range. An assult or battle rifle would be an encumbrance in the back of an ambulance. 

Given her other qualifications a PDW with the last bullet for herself is almost a necessity with all the Chechens, pardoned prisoners and out of control conscripts running around in her AO.


----------



## KevinB

Skysix said:


> Size. PDW's are small and short range. An assult or battle rifle would be an encumbrance in the back of an ambulance.
> 
> Given her other qualifications a PDW with the last bullet for herself is almost a necessity with all the Chechens, pardoned prisoners and out of control conscripts running around in her AO.


That gun is junk - I'm pretty negative on pistol cal (and other retarded caliber) PDW's, but the KRISS is pretty much a steaming turd of wretched failure.


----------



## brihard

Skysix said:


> Size. PDW's are small and short range. An assult or battle rifle would be an encumbrance in the back of an ambulance.
> 
> Given her other qualifications a PDW with the last bullet for herself is almost a necessity with all the Chechens, pardoned prisoners and out of control conscripts running around in her AO.


It’s a super big and chunky shoulder pistol. It doesn’t have a place on a battlefield… Give her an AKM with folding stock or something. Lots of reasonably sized options that fire a rifle cartridge.

Weird to see a medic whose vest pouches aren’t mostly medical kit. Hot woman, clean uniform and bare bones kit that appears to be exclusively an excessive number of magazines given her purported role? Colour me skeptical.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517636798104670209


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517636798104670209


Ever hear that song, can't get there form here...

Russia doesn't have the ability to do that -- they can convene all they want about what they want to do, but it's hot air at this point without resorting to CRBN usage.


----------



## KevinB

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/22/russia-ukraine-war-news-mariupol-live-updates/#link-BOUPHEVSKFCJNHUG363KCI65YQ
		


By Amanda Coletta6:43 p.m.
Link copied

TORONTO — Canada said Friday that it had sent heavy artillery to Ukraine at the European nation’s request, and was “talking about” whether to reopen its embassy in Kyiv.
The country’s defense department said in a statement that it had delivered an unspecified number of M777 howitzers and more anti-armor ammunition.
“As Ukrainians fight to defend their sovereignty, freedom and independence, Canada remains committed to continuing to provide Ukraine with the military equipment that it needs to fight and win this war,” Anita Anand, Canada’s defense minister, said in a statement.
The aid, which was delivered “in conjunction” with the United States, came from the Canadian armed forces inventory and will be replenished, the statement said. It added that Canada is finalizing contracts for armored vehicles.
Anand said last month that Ottawa had provided all the lethal aid in its inventory and that the country had to make sure that it retained “capacity here for the Canadian Armed Forces should the need arise.”
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told reporters this week that Canada had committed to providing Ukraine with heavy artillery, but provided few details.
Separately, Chrystia Freeland, Canada’s deputy prime minister, told reporters in Washington on Friday that she had spoken with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal about how his government was “working very hard to make it safe and possible for embassies to return,” and was considering whether Canada should reopen its embassy there.
“We’re talking about it,” she said, “and we hear our Ukrainian friends.”


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517658670179495942


----------



## KevinB

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/22/russia-ukraine-war-news-mariupol-live-updates/#link-L6VTXQCHXRHDNK322MMY5HCTBM
		


Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Friday that more than 20 countries already have agreed to participate in a “consultative” meeting next week at Ramstein Air Base in Germany. Defense ministers and senior military officers from the United States and partner nations will discuss what long-term assistance Ukraine’s military needs to remain potent, including after the war with Russia.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin does not have a specific outcome in mind for the meeting, first announced Thursday, Kirby said.
“He’s not going into this meeting on Tuesday with a preset list of things that we have to drive to,” Kirby said. “He wants to hear from allies and partners, and from the Ukrainians themselves about what they are doing and what they will need going forward.”
Kirby said the meeting is not meant to get security guarantees for Ukraine.
About 40 nations have been invited, including some in NATO, he said.


----------



## Jarnhamar

KevinB said:


> That gun is junk


Inclined to agree. I have a few pistol caliber carbines (KRISS, FX-9, Keltec Sub2000, Ruger carbine). Pretty fun but not serious guns. The KRISS is a fun shooter when it works (very little recoil and accurate) but I found it very finicky on ammo.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> It would seem we sent four howitzers from Shilo.



Well, that should help keep the 2K or so Russians reportedly in Transnistria in line...


----------



## Kirkhill

Belgium, god bless'em, is trying.  

The want to donate guns they already disposed of to a Belgian company.   They sold them as used kit so I am going to guess they got 25 cents on the dollar.  Now they want to buy them back... and they're surprised to discover those very same guns now cost a lot more.  I am going to guess "refurbished" guns will sell for 75 cents on the dollar.

The bureaucrats are surprised. 









						Belgium to send weapons to Ukraine, including artillery, anti-tank guided missiles
					

The Belgian government has decided to deliver modern weapons to help Ukraine stop the Russian invasion. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Weird to see a medic whose vest pouches aren’t mostly medical kit. Hot woman, clean uniform and bare bones kit that appears to be exclusively an excessive number of magazines given her purported role? Colour me skeptical.



Collect 11 more and you have a calendar.


----------



## brihard

Brad Sallows said:


> Well, that should help keep the 2K or so Russians reportedly in Transnistria in line...


----------



## Brad Sallows

Waiting for UKR to sell "precancels" of that postage stamp...


----------



## OldSolduer

brihard said:


> Weird to see a medic whose vest pouches aren’t mostly medical kit. Hot woman, clean uniform and bare bones kit that appears to be exclusively an excessive number of magazines given her purported role? Colour me skeptical.


The Russians aren't the only ones engaging in propaganda.


----------



## Quirky

Is Kiev airport open for various international aid yet?


----------



## brihard

New Jomini update just out.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517660500733136898


----------



## Halifax Tar

KevinB said:


> That gun is junk - I'm pretty negative on pistol cal (and other retarded caliber) PDW's, but the KRISS is pretty much a steaming turd of wretched failure.



I'll stick with my M1 Carbine


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> That gun is junk - I'm pretty negative on pistol cal (and other retarded caliber) PDW's, but the KRISS is pretty much a steaming turd of wretched failure.





brihard said:


> It’s a super big and chunky shoulder pistol. It doesn’t have a place on a battlefield… Give her an AKM with folding stock or something. Lots of reasonably sized options that fire a rifle cartridge.
> 
> Weird to see a medic whose vest pouches aren’t mostly medical kit. Hot woman, clean uniform and bare bones kit that appears to be exclusively an excessive number of magazines given her purported role? Colour me skeptical.



If you’re going to stick with 9mm, I’d prefer an MP5-N…with the suppressor… 😉




KevinB said:


> Ever hear that song, can't get there form here...
> 
> Russia doesn't have the ability to do that -- they can convene all they want about what they want to do, but it's hot air at this point without resorting to CRBN usage.



Perhaps Russia could take convening lessons from Canada? 🤔


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/22/russia-ukraine-war-news-mariupol-live-updates/#link-UPWTW3IV4BBTJMYOP2CZFI46LU
> 
> 
> 
> By Kim Bellware6:49 p.m.
> Link copied
> 
> Satellite images taken over the devastated port city of Mariupol on Thursday show another mass grave where an estimated 1,000 residents may be buried, according to the city’s mayor.
> The images were captured over the village of Vynohradne on the outskirts of Mariupol.
> “We will see more and more such burials. Unfortunately. Their territory will expand. Because the death toll is in the tens of thousands,” Mariupol Mayor Vadym Boychenko said via Telegram. He noted the death toll could ultimately rise to near 15,000 as residents in the besieged city remain cut off from fresh supplies of food, water and medicine.
> Sightings of the apparent mass grave near Vynohradne come a day after satellite images revealed a mass grave in the Russian-occupied village of Manhush, roughly 12 miles west of Mariupol.
> The images, provided Thursday to The Washington Post by Maxar Technologies, show several rows of graves in Manhush in four distinct sections, each measuring nearly 280 feet.
> Mariupol, a strategic port city in eastern Ukraine, has been heavily bombarded by Russian forces for the past month. Moscow claimed victory over the city Thursday even though Ukrainian forces remain holed up in a steel factory.



We didn't go into Rwanda either, so I guess this 'cull' of innocents will go unpunished too...


----------



## Eye In The Sky

McG said:


> To be fair, it is more than 10% of what Canada owns.



Neither of those are impressive.  I would actually consider the word embarrassing.


----------



## Maxman1

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Navy guys eh!? @Underway  with your little 57mm pee shooter 😁



The largest guns the RCN ever used were the six inch, or 152mm guns of the light cruisers HMCS _Ontario _and _Quebec. _We haven't used anything larger than 76mm since the Tribal and River class were decommissioned in the 60s.



Underway said:


> Pffft arbitrary numbers... have you ever picked up one of those shells?  They are _heavy_



No, that's why I'm infantry.

Technically, Turkey still uses a large number of M1 8 inch, or M115 203mm guns, while other countries removed them from service in the 80s and 90s (Taiwan also uses them, and also has the old M1 240mm guns). But NATO as a whole doesn't use anything larger than 155mm.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Who wants to beat the Russians the most?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517550580620836864


----------



## Gunnar

daftandbarmy said:


> Who wants to beat the Russians the most?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517550580620836864


I think it was a general who said “Going to war without the French is a lot like going deer hunting without your accordion”


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Ukrainian trenches overrun by Russian forces, note the harden emplacements and how much artillery was used against them.


----------



## The Bread Guy

daftandbarmy said:


> Who wants to beat the Russians the most?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517550580620836864


To be entirely fair, those stats are only good to 27 Mar, so they don't include these bits recently announced ....

“France will be handing over the 155-mm Caesar ACS to Ukraine – Macron” (UKR mil NGO)
“France sending ‘significant equipment’ to Ukraine to fight Russia” (Al Jazeera)
“France to send Caesar self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine” (defence-blog.com)
Not enough given their size?  Discuss.  Zero?  Maybe these were announced after Carl Tweeted.

Also, even though it doesn't feed the narrative of "only military aid counts and is worth measuring", here's the rest of the picture _as of three weeks ago or so_ from the original source of the stats ...

Enough?  Again, discuss.


----------



## McG

Russia has committed to punching through the Maginot Line.


----------



## MilEME09

McG said:


> Russia has committed to punching through the Maginot Line.


And it's costing them a Battalion minus a day


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Colin Parkinson said:


> Ukrainian trenches overrun by Russian forces, note the harden emplacements and how much artillery was used against them.


Is it just me...or does that look too pristine for having just been overrun? Especially if they softened the position first with artillery. 

I wonder how much of the captured eqpt was stuff found in their travels that they decided to use for propaganda.

I also am a bit confused because of the lack of...you know... corpses?


----------



## Gunnar

The Bread Guy said:


> To be entirely fair, those stats are only good to 27 Mar, so they don't include these bits recently announced ....
> 
> “France will be handing over the 155-mm Caesar ACS to Ukraine – Macron” (UKR mil NGO)
> “France sending ‘significant equipment’ to Ukraine to fight Russia” (Al Jazeera)
> “France to send Caesar self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine” (defence-blog.com)
> Not enough given their size?  Discuss.  Zero?  Maybe these were announced after Carl Tweeted.
> 
> Also, even though it doesn't feed the narrative of "only military aid counts and is worth measuring", here's the rest of the picture _as of three weeks ago or so_ from the original source of the stats ...
> View attachment 70290
> Enough?  Again, discuss.


I think realistically, Estonia has contributed way beyond what might be expected of a small nation.  Seems that former WP countries are kinda upset with Russians in general.

But, good for France.  Context is important.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517621458880634880


----------



## lenaitch

Gunnar said:


> I think it was a general who said “Going to war without the French is a lot like going deer hunting without your accordion”


Schwarzkopf apparently.


----------



## daftandbarmy

rmc_wannabe said:


> Is it just me...or does that look too pristine for having just been overrun? Especially if they softened the position first with artillery.
> 
> I wonder how much of the captured eqpt was stuff found in their travels that they decided to use for propaganda.
> 
> I also am a bit confused because of the lack of...you know... corpses?



Sometimes troops can be withdrawn/ repositioned before the bad guys get there, for whatever reason, so there's that possibility...


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517611563997356034


God I love these new Brits, unlike the old Brits under ‘Cool Britainnia’. These news are like the old ones that went around the world planting the fricking flag, here, there and everywhere. 
Makes me proud to a WASP again - a White Anglo Saxon Pollack.


----------



## AlexanderM

Just a question here. I noticed the Russian/Ukrainian tanks using the 125mm guns, can they outrange the 120mm?? Do the Allies need to upgrade. I seem to remember the Abrams tanks outranging the Iraqi tanks in Desert Storm, has that changed now? Just asking.


----------



## Infanteer

While Russian tank guns are a bit larger in diameter, their ammo is not as good as Western natures.  That being said, Russian MBTs have the ability to fire ATGMs from their tanks, which do outrange Western conventional APFSDS/HEAT rounds.


----------



## TacticalTea

Zipperhead99 said:


> Now this is interesting if true.  I am assuming it would not be a front line role, but as a senior military advisor type??
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Military officer retires, heads to Ukraine amid sex misconduct investigation
> 
> 
> A senior leader in the Canadian Armed Forces has retired and travelled to Ukraine to help defend the country from Russia's invasion while still under investigation for alleged sexual misconduct.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca


In this latest edition of ''I'd really rather die than deal with your BS''. It's honourable and good to see, though. If the CAF don't want him anymore... Ukraine could certainly use his specific set of skills


Kirkhill said:


> Railways and Dams
> 
> 
> 
> https://ukranews.com/en/news/851615-freight-train-unexpectedly-derails-in-russian-belgorod
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u9hsql
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Krasnodar Krai, Kuban: dam  collapsed near Fyodorovska village Krasnodar - Map of Latest News and incidents from Russia in English - russia.liveuamap.com
> 
> 
> Krasnodar Krai, Kuban: dam  collapsed near Fyodorovska village. Explore Russia local news alerts & today's headlines geolocated on live map on website or application. Focus on politics, military news and security alerts
> 
> 
> 
> 
> russia.liveuamap.com


This (along with the other occurrences you've shared with us) is awesome. I was wondering when we'd start seeing some deep sabotage / direct action. _One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter._



Kirkhill said:


> Meanwhile Chancellor Scholz of Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrat Party is concerned that if Germany donates tanks it will draw NATO into a nuclear war.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Scholz says top priority is avoiding NATO confrontation with Russia
> 
> 
> NATO must avoid a direct military confrontation with Russia that could lead to a third world war, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in an interview with Der Spiegel when asked about Germany's failure to deliver heavy weapons to Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


Incredible. I had no idea how tight the noose was around Scholz' neck. I hope it all bears fruit.



KevinB said:


> Canada said Friday that it had sent heavy artillery to Ukraine at the European nation’s request, and was “talking about” whether to reopen its embassy in Kyiv.


And that embassy should get the protection it deserves. Take Kyiv out of the war.


----------



## TacticalTea

The Bread Guy said:


> To be entirely fair, those stats are only good to 27 Mar, so they don't include these bits recently announced ....
> 
> “France will be handing over the 155-mm Caesar ACS to Ukraine – Macron” (UKR mil NGO)
> “France sending ‘significant equipment’ to Ukraine to fight Russia” (Al Jazeera)
> “France to send Caesar self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine” (defence-blog.com)
> Not enough given their size?  Discuss.  Zero?  Maybe these were announced after Carl Tweeted.
> 
> Also, even though it doesn't feed the narrative of "only military aid counts and is worth measuring", here's the rest of the picture _as of three weeks ago or so_ from the original source of the stats ...
> View attachment 70290
> Enough?  Again, discuss.


And here's the deal;

France is having a binary presidential election in which the right-wing candidate seeking to unseat centre-leftt President Macron is actually somewhat pro-Russia (just like a certain now-reshuffled Canadian foreign minister, she had contracted debt from _the Reds_). The necessities of optics have forced her to side with Ukraine, but she has remained ardently opposed to offensive military aid.

Macron can't risk his presidency with a rushed decision.

But suddenly, ta-da! The wind blows in his favour and, as if by magic, France then announces the provision of offensive weaponry to Ukraine. Expect France to get more daring once the poll booths have closed.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517621458880634880


Further down that thread, it says Israel isn't sending rations, either ...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517777185125412864Wonder what we're not hearing/seeing here ...

Meanwhile, another ask from a former UKR leader ...








						Poroshenko urges Canada to adopt Lend-Lease Act, proposes to include Chrystia Freeland in Council of Financial Donors of Ukraine
					

The fifth president of Ukraine, MP Petro Poroshenko (the European Solidarity faction) has thanked the Canadian government for supporting Ukraine and called on Canada to adopt an act on lend-lease for Ukraine.




					en.interfax.com.ua


----------



## Haggis

Retired soldier question for the Naval hive mind.  Could any western attack subs covertly make their way into the Black Sea? Asking for Darth Putin.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

I didn’t see this posted yet:









						The Russians Appear To Be Sending A Deep-Diving Submersible To The Wreck Of The Cruiser ‘Moskva’
					

The Russian navy reportedly is trying to salvage sensitive materials from the wreck of the guided-missile cruiser Moskva, which sank in the Black Sea in up to 300 feet of water after Ukrainian forces around the strategic port of Odessa hit her with two Neptune anti-ship missiles on April 13.




					www.forbes.com


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517730072920305665

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517820758273130496


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517823220275163138


----------



## The Bread Guy

From the info-fight:  one video ("Forgotten by the world, but not by Azov", shared via Azov regiment's info-machine YoutTube channel) ...




... with this take from UKR media ...








						Ukrainian defenders show children hiding in Azovstal bunkers VIDEO - Kyiv Post - Ukraine's Global Voice
					

Ukrainian defenders show children hiding in Azovstal bunkers VIDEO… - Apr. 23, 2022. By Dmitriy Vakulyuk




					www.kyivpost.com
				



... and this one from a pro-RUS amplifier site








						Azov Regiment Showed Civilians Taken Hostage At Azovstal
					

The Azov regiment has made a strange and clumsy attempt to secure a “humanitarian corridor” for itself. On 23 April,...




					southfront.org
				



Impressive the info-machine(s) could get this quality of video out.


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> From the info-fight:  one video ("Forgotten by the world, but not by Azov", shared via Azov regiment's info-machine YoutTube channel) ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ... with this take from UKR media ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian defenders show children hiding in Azovstal bunkers VIDEO - Kyiv Post - Ukraine's Global Voice
> 
> 
> Ukrainian defenders show children hiding in Azovstal bunkers VIDEO… - Apr. 23, 2022. By Dmitriy Vakulyuk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.kyivpost.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ... and this one from a pro-RUS amplifier site
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Azov Regiment Showed Civilians Taken Hostage At Azovstal
> 
> 
> The Azov regiment has made a strange and clumsy attempt to secure a “humanitarian corridor” for itself. On 23 April,...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> southfront.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Impressive the info-machine(s) could get this quality of video out.


There have been a few OS reports of stealth replenishments to Mariupol by sea.


----------



## The Bread Guy

rmc_wannabe said:


> Is it just me...or does that look too pristine for having just been overrun? Especially if they softened the position first with artillery.
> 
> I wonder how much of the captured eqpt was stuff found in their travels that they decided to use for propaganda.
> 
> I also am a bit confused because of the lack of...you know... corpses?


Just a wild guess - _generally speaking_, by the time it's safe enough for the respective info-machines to send photographers/videographers (and I'm guessing that only because of the red star on the top right corner of the screen indicating the video is from RUS's military TV network), a lot of site exploitation and post-over-run work has already been done.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Fire and Brimstone inbound....


Brimstone: The RAF missile Ukraine is set to fire from land at sea targets​ 
Brimstone was developed in the UK for the RAF and is a "fire-and-forget" missile with an extremely advanced guidance system.

The UK is looking at ways to supply anti-ship missiles to Ukraine, including mounting Brimstone missiles to vehicles, Prime Minister Boris Johnson says.

Brimstone missiles were developed by arms manufacturer MBDA for the Royal Air Force.

They have been used by British forces in Libya and Syria, and are typically launched from fast jet aircraft such as a Typhoon.

In Ukraine, the missiles would be fired from land towards targets at sea.

Defence analyst Paul Beaver said the missiles can still be "very effective" fired from land and, most importantly, they "will work".
"Integration onto a truck isn't going to be that difficult," he said.

"The engineers at MBDA will have already thought of this and probably be working on it as we speak.

"More importantly at the moment, it's the deterrence value of it - to stop any Russian maritime aggression.

"I think Brimstone could be very effective."

However, he did draw attention to the fact the missile is not a long-range missile and not "over the horizon".

"This is about, for example, deterring in the first place and then destroying Russian landing craft should they be foolish enough to attack, say, Odesa on the south coast," he said.









						Brimstone: The missiles the UK could send Ukraine - explained
					

Brimstone was developed in the UK for the RAF and is a "fire-and-forget" missile with an extremely advanced guidance system.




					www.forces.net


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517878146095321088


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

rmc_wannabe said:


> Is it just me...or does that look too pristine for having just been overrun? Especially if they softened the position first with artillery.
> 
> I wonder how much of the captured eqpt was stuff found in their travels that they decided to use for propaganda.
> 
> I also am a bit confused because of the lack of...you know... corpses?


Both sides are burying corpses in mass graves near the front.  The No Man's Land in certain places is a very wide area.


----------



## Prairie canuck

daftandbarmy said:


> Fire and Brimstone inbound....
> 
> 
> Brimstone: The RAF missile Ukraine is set to fire from land at sea targets​
> Brimstone was developed in the UK for the RAF and is a "fire-and-forget" missile with an extremely advanced guidance system.
> 
> The UK is looking at ways to supply anti-ship missiles to Ukraine, including mounting Brimstone missiles to vehicles, Prime Minister Boris Johnson says.
> 
> Brimstone missiles were developed by arms manufacturer MBDA for the Royal Air Force.
> 
> They have been used by British forces in Libya and Syria, and are typically launched from fast jet aircraft such as a Typhoon.
> 
> In Ukraine, the missiles would be fired from land towards targets at sea.
> 
> Defence analyst Paul Beaver said the missiles can still be "very effective" fired from land and, most importantly, they "will work".
> "Integration onto a truck isn't going to be that difficult," he said.
> 
> "The engineers at MBDA will have already thought of this and probably be working on it as we speak.
> 
> "More importantly at the moment, it's the deterrence value of it - to stop any Russian maritime aggression.
> 
> "I think Brimstone could be very effective."
> 
> However, he did draw attention to the fact the missile is not a long-range missile and not "over the horizon".
> 
> "This is about, for example, deterring in the first place and then destroying Russian landing craft should they be foolish enough to attack, say, Odesa on the south coast," he said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Brimstone: The missiles the UK could send Ukraine - explained
> 
> 
> Brimstone was developed in the UK for the RAF and is a "fire-and-forget" missile with an extremely advanced guidance system.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.forces.net


Not sure how they would do it but if the Ukraine were to re-take Snake Island (are the seal teams nearby ) wouldn"t that be a good place for some anti ship/air? I imagine it would become a big target for the Russians so I'm not sure if the Ukranians could hold it if they did but it would attract more Russian ordnance and focus away from other areas.


----------



## AlexanderM

Has Ukraine got anything that can take out Subs?? Saw a clip that looked like the Russians are firing the missiles from subs now.


----------



## brihard

Prairie canuck said:


> Not sure how they would do it but if the Ukraine were to re-take Snake Island (are the seal teams nearby ) wouldn"t that be a good place for some anti ship/air? I imagine it would become a big target for the Russians so I'm not sure if the Ukranians could hold it if they did but it would attract more Russian ordnance and focus away from other areas.


Brimstone is a small missile. It's an adaptation of an air launched fire and forget that's best employed against formations of vehicles. I'm sure it'll do good work against a small patrol boat, but it doesn't kill ships. Short range, too.


----------



## armrdsoul77

Another article regarding salvage operation for  Moskva. Salvage vessel originally built in 1915.Russia's 110-Year-Old Salvage Ship Deploying To Moskva Wreck: Report


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> Meanwhile, another ask from a former UKR leader ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Poroshenko urges Canada to adopt Lend-Lease Act, proposes to include Chrystia Freeland in Council of Financial Donors of Ukraine
> 
> 
> The fifth president of Ukraine, MP Petro Poroshenko (the European Solidarity faction) has thanked the Canadian government for supporting Ukraine and called on Canada to adopt an act on lend-lease for Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.interfax.com.ua



Credit where credit's due.  I'm not much of a fan of this government and I have ridiculed their "convening" but having said that Freeland seems to be capable of exploiting any opportunities offered her, even if it is limited to "convening".

I'd cheerfully take her as a replacement for Justin.


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> Fire and Brimstone inbound....
> 
> 
> Brimstone: The RAF missile Ukraine is set to fire from land at sea targets​
> Brimstone was developed in the UK for the RAF and is a "fire-and-forget" missile with an extremely advanced guidance system.
> 
> The UK is looking at ways to supply anti-ship missiles to Ukraine, including mounting Brimstone missiles to vehicles, Prime Minister Boris Johnson says.
> 
> Brimstone missiles were developed by arms manufacturer MBDA for the Royal Air Force.
> 
> They have been used by British forces in Libya and Syria, and are typically launched from fast jet aircraft such as a Typhoon.
> 
> In Ukraine, the missiles would be fired from land towards targets at sea.
> 
> Defence analyst Paul Beaver said the missiles can still be "very effective" fired from land and, most importantly, they "will work".
> "Integration onto a truck isn't going to be that difficult," he said.
> 
> "The engineers at MBDA will have already thought of this and probably be working on it as we speak.
> 
> "More importantly at the moment, it's the deterrence value of it - to stop any Russian maritime aggression.
> 
> "I think Brimstone could be very effective."
> 
> However, he did draw attention to the fact the missile is not a long-range missile and not "over the horizon".
> 
> "This is about, for example, deterring in the first place and then destroying Russian landing craft should they be foolish enough to attack, say, Odesa on the south coast," he said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Brimstone: The missiles the UK could send Ukraine - explained
> 
> 
> Brimstone was developed in the UK for the RAF and is a "fire-and-forget" missile with an extremely advanced guidance system.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.forces.net



They also have a "secondary" function for the Ukrainians, engaging the RAF's "primary" targets - tanks, SPHs and HVTs - as well as being capable against helicopters.


----------



## Jarnhamar

armrdsoul77 said:


> Another article regarding salvage operation for  Moskva. Salvage vessel originally built in 1915.View attachment 70295Russia's 110-Year-Old Salvage Ship Deploying To Moskva Wreck: Report



Ukraine should introduce the Kommuna to Neptune.


----------



## Prairie canuck

brihard said:


> Brimstone is a small missile. It's an adaptation of an air launched fire and forget that's best employed against formations of vehicles. I'm sure it'll do good work against a small patrol boat, but it doesn't kill ships. Short range, too.


I was thinking those donated Harpoons and their own Neptune could reach out and touch someone.


----------



## Kirkhill

Prairie canuck said:


> I was thinking those donated Harpoons and their own Neptune could reach out and touch someone.



Brimstone would make a nice defensive screen to deploy around a fixed Harpoon installation.  Add in some Starstreaks and you could hold a site like Snake Island against an air or sea assault.   

Of course they would still have to watch out for Tactical Nukes - that would be a hard day.


----------



## Underway

Haggis said:


> Retired soldier question for the Naval hive mind.  Could any western attack subs covertly make their way into the Black Sea? Asking for Darth Putin.


Likely not while underwater.  The waters are not only shallow but challenging to navigate.  Usually, submarines are escorted through the Bosphorous straits with a tug boat nearby in case they get into trouble on the surface.

However I wouldn't be surprised if Turkey had diesel subs already in the Black Sea doing submarine things.


----------



## brihard

Kirkhill said:


> Brimstone would make a nice defensive screen to deploy around a fixed Harpoon installation.  Add in some Starstreaks and you could hold a site like Snake Island against an air or sea assault.
> 
> Of course they would still have to watch out for Tactical Nukes - that would be a hard day.


An ASM emplacement is relatively fragile. Too easily damaged or destroyed. I don’t think the calculus works in favour of establishing fixed ASM sites; they’ll just get killed- probably by cruise or ballistic missiles. Realistically, Snake Island is currently denied to Ukraine.


----------



## Underway

Prairie canuck said:


> Not sure how they would do it but if the Ukraine were to re-take Snake Island (are the seal teams nearby ) wouldn"t that be a good place for some anti ship/air? I imagine it would become a big target for the Russians so I'm not sure if the Ukranians could hold it if they did but it would attract more Russian ordnance and focus away from other areas.


Wouldn't be able to protect them.  Snake Island is basically a big flat rock with no cover IIRC.  Thus the Russians would just hit it with some missiles and destroy the launchers. Shore launchers are best used when they can move around and not necessarily be in the same place all the time.

At this point, the Russian blockade ends when the Russian ships go away and that only happens if Ukraine uses its airforce as their navy is now reduced to coastal craft.


----------



## Remius

Kirkhill said:


> Credit where credit's due.  I'm not much of a fan of this government and I have ridiculed their "convening" but having said that Freeland seems to be capable of exploiting any opportunities offered her, even if it is limited to "convening".
> 
> I'd cheerfully take her as a replacement for Justin.


She is handling things in an impressive manner.  I hope she takes over the job before JT steps down.  

A visit to Ukraine would be good.


----------



## McG

brihard said:


> Brimstone is a small missile. It's an adaptation of an air launched fire and forget that's best employed against formations of vehicles. I'm sure it'll do good work against a small patrol boat, but it doesn't kill ships. Short range, too.


How will it do against corvettes?


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517911181486264321


----------



## brihard

McG said:


> How will it do against corvettes?


I'm not qualified to say. Probably depends on where it hits I guess? I doubt it would put it underwater, but a couple of them might cause some damage to important kit and reduce capabilities.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Jarnhamar said:


> Ukraine should introduce the Kommuna to Neptune.


Which is yet another stirling example of why you probably shouldn't believe the story that Moskva was sunk by Neptune Missiles 😉


----------



## Jarnhamar

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Which is yet another stirling example of why you probably shouldn't believe the story that Moskva was sunk by Neptune Missiles 😉


They still deserve to meet 😏


----------



## Underway

McG said:


> How will it do against corvettes?


Put a hole in them.  Start a fire.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Jarnhamar said:


> They still deserve to meet 😏


It was a nice story, fulfilled its intended purpose 😉


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Snake Island



When musing about where stuff should go and what should be defended and what should be retaken, the first question is "why this place?".  The answer has to be militarily rational in the very big picture ("survival of Ukraine").


----------



## Underway

McG said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517911181486264321


This is something I was thinking about. Eastern Europe like endurance sports, unlike us North Americans who want to see the game over in three hours.  I expect Russia has begun viewing this war as a marathon when their decapitation strike didn't work.

If Russia mobilizes expect NATO response to double.  Also I expect the French to jump in big-time once their election is over.  T


----------



## Good2Golf

McG said:


> How will it do against corvettes?


It’s about a 30% smaller warhead than Hellfire, and still primarily a tandem-shaped HEAT warhead, but in the right spot….let’s call it a “Moskva Spot”, probably an M-Kill at least… 😉


----------



## Underway

Good2Golf said:


> It’s about a 30% smaller warhead than Hellfire, and still primarily a tandem-shaped HEAT warhead, but in the right spot….let’s call it a “Moskva Spot”, probably an M-Kill at least… 😉


Yah its really designed for helicopters to be able to attack fast attack/missile boats (not ships) that go really fast and swarm you.  Hellfire is a good comparison.  Russia has a number of missile boats in the Black Sea.  I think they can be used in anti-armour role as well...


----------



## brihard

Underway said:


> Also I expect the French to jump in big-time once their election is over.  T


just sharing the info since I had to google it- France’s presidential runoff vote is tomorrow, so by tomorrow night our time we’ll probably know the victor. If Macron is sitting on commitments too post election, that could set the stage for announcements early next week assuming he wins.


----------



## Underway

brihard said:


> just sharing the info since I had to google it- France’s presidential runoff vote is tomorrow, so by tomorrow night our time we’ll probably know the victor. If Macron is sitting on commitments too post election, that could set the stage for announcements early next week assuming he wins.


I agree.  Macron has always been the one pushing for a European security arrangement (headed by the French of course) to get Europe out from under the US (and under France... euphemism intended).  This is France's opportunity to take leadership. If they don't then they will risk the Euro security arrangement they want as they will be viewed as an unreliable partner.


----------



## Good2Golf

Underway said:


> Yah its really designed for helicopters to be able to attack fast attack/missile boats (not ships) that go really fast and swarm you.  Hellfire is a good comparison.  Russia has a number of missile boats in the Black Sea.  I think they can be used in anti-armour role as well...


Yup.  It started life as just a licensed AGM-114 for their own WAH-64/AH1 (UK AAC’s Apache), but transitioned to updated copy, then to a full-on F3 (fit, form, function) analogue customized to the UK’s own requirements.  For those wondering…yes, the Brits were crafty/witty in its naming, especially given its roots….Hellfire and Brimstone… 😉 

I’d wager that the naval version of the SPEAR development of the Brimstone would be optimized for lethality against maritime targets, but it’s no Harpoon.


----------



## Zipperhead99

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517611563997356034


Now that is an interesting development: with Finland poised to join NATO and Russia already making threats towards it, what a better to send a message than pre-position some NATO forces in country in case the Russians do try something


----------



## Kirkhill

Zipperhead99 said:


> Now that is an interesting development: with Finland poised to join NATO and Russia already making threats towards it, what a better to send a message than pre-position some NATO forces in country in case the Russians do try something



At the same time, prepositioning a British force in a Non-NATO country, but one with whom Britain has a mutual defence agreement may also allow the Finns the confidence to let the Ukrainians do a little more shopping from the Finnish Catalogue.  They have some interesting stuff including a hundred BMP2s modernized to the latest Polish standard.





__





						List of equipment of the Finnish Army - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Skysix

armrdsoul77 said:


> Another article regarding salvage operation for  Moskva. Salvage vessel originally built in 1915.View attachment 70295Russia's 110-Year-Old Salvage Ship Deploying To Moskva Wreck: Report


Would be a shame if anything happened to any of (all of) those Russian Navy ships around the site of the wreck......


----------



## Kat Stevens

Soldier35 said:


> attack pitch-up by Ka-52 and Mi-28N helicopters. The attack in this mode is used by Russian helicopters in Ukraine. This mode allows you to launch an attack with unguided S-8 missiles without entering the air defense zone of Ukraine. Before launching an attack, the pilot increases the angle of elevation of the nose of the aircraft, simultaneously releasing unguided missiles. According to approximate calculations, two helicopters with a full set of missiles can hit an area the size of a football field.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> On April 22, Ukraine attempted to break through to Russia with tanks in the Goptovka area, this is a checkpoint on the Ukrainian-Russian border in the Dergachev district of the Kharkov region. The equipment was moving from the village of Svetlichnoye towards Kazachya Lopan. The Russian armed forces recorded a column of about 15 armored vehicles. Fire was opened, as a result of which 6 units of Ukrainian equipment were hit and destroyed by anti-tank missile systems, the remaining ones were fired from MLRS. At the moment, the Russian border checkpoint Nekhoteevka is closed until further notice. This was reported by war correspondent Yuri Kotenok.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian troops fired again at the Russian border checkpoint in the Kursk region. The governor of the Kursk region said that today from the side of Ukraine mortars fired again at the checkpoint on the border in the Glushkovsky district of the Kursk region. As a result, the premises of the Rosselkhoznadzor caught fire, and some sources also report damage to the customs post, mill and railway bridge. The shelling was carried out from the side of the Sumy region of Ukraine.


Why do I hear Boris Badenov's voice every time I read one of your posts? You bet we make big trouble for moooose and squirrel, too.


----------



## JLB50

Skysix said:


> Would be a shame if anything happened to any of (all of) those Russian Navy ships around the site of the wreck......


If so, it would be what the Russians would probably call a “vertical repositioning of the fleet”.


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Both sides are burying corpses in mass graves near the front.  The No Man's Land in certain places is a very wide area.


No Man’s Land tends in this to benefit Ukraine, 1) as the defender in this situation, it makes a kill zone that the enemy must cross to advance 2) it gives them space for low level operations as it tends to use its extremely superior night fighting capabilities to close with and destroy small groups of Russia prey.


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> attack pitch-up by Ka-52 and Mi-28N helicopters. The attack in this mode is used by Russian helicopters in Ukraine. This mode allows you to launch an attack with unguided S-8 missiles without entering the air defense zone of Ukraine. Before launching an attack, the pilot increases the angle of elevation of the nose of the aircraft, simultaneously releasing unguided missiles. According to approximate calculations, two helicopters with a full set of missiles can hit an area the size of a football field.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> On April 22, Ukraine attempted to break through to Russia with tanks in the Goptovka area, this is a checkpoint on the Ukrainian-Russian border in the Dergachev district of the Kharkov region. The equipment was moving from the village of Svetlichnoye towards Kazachya Lopan. The Russian armed forces recorded a column of about 15 armored vehicles. Fire was opened, as a result of which 6 units of Ukrainian equipment were hit and destroyed by anti-tank missile systems, the remaining ones were fired from MLRS. At the moment, the Russian border checkpoint Nekhoteevka is closed until further notice. This was reported by war correspondent Yuri Kotenok.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian troops fired again at the Russian border checkpoint in the Kursk region. The governor of the Kursk region said that today from the side of Ukraine mortars fired again at the checkpoint on the border in the Glushkovsky district of the Kursk region. As a result, the premises of the Rosselkhoznadzor caught fire, and some sources also report damage to the customs post, mill and railway bridge. The shelling was carried out from the side of the Sumy region of Ukraine.


@Soldier35 is that what Russia calls the “hope and pray” method of non-PGM employment?

I guess the RF forces are now depending on Patriarch Kirill and good luck to hit targets?


----------



## KevinB

Soldier35 said:


> attack pitch-up by Ka-52 and Mi-28N helicopters. The attack in this mode is used by Russian helicopters in Ukraine. This mode allows you to launch an attack with unguided S-8 missiles without entering the air defense zone of Ukraine. Before launching an attack, the pilot increases the angle of elevation of the nose of the aircraft, simultaneously releasing unguided missiles. According to approximate calculations, two helicopters with a full set of missiles can hit an area the size of a football field.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> On April 22, Ukraine attempted to break through to Russia with tanks in the Goptovka area, this is a checkpoint on the Ukrainian-Russian border in the Dergachev district of the Kharkov region. The equipment was moving from the village of Svetlichnoye towards Kazachya Lopan. The Russian armed forces recorded a column of about 15 armored vehicles. Fire was opened, as a result of which 6 units of Ukrainian equipment were hit and destroyed by anti-tank missile systems, the remaining ones were fired from MLRS. At the moment, the Russian border checkpoint Nekhoteevka is closed until further notice. This was reported by war correspondent Yuri Kotenok.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian troops fired again at the Russian border checkpoint in the Kursk region. The governor of the Kursk region said that today from the side of Ukraine mortars fired again at the checkpoint on the border in the Glushkovsky district of the Kursk region. As a result, the premises of the Rosselkhoznadzor caught fire, and some sources also report damage to the customs post, mill and railway bridge. The shelling was carried out from the side of the Sumy region of Ukraine.


So Ukrainian Air Defense is to powerful so you lob unguided systems (as you are a backwards as fuck has been nation and lack actual PGM’s in any quantities) and hope for the best, from the relatively safety of Russian borders.


----------



## Kirkhill

Soldier35 said:


> attack pitch-up by Ka-52 and Mi-28N helicopters. The attack in this mode is used by Russian helicopters in Ukraine. This mode allows you to launch an attack with unguided S-8 missiles without entering the air defense zone of Ukraine. Before launching an attack, the pilot increases the angle of elevation of the nose of the aircraft, simultaneously releasing unguided missiles. According to approximate calculations, two helicopters with a full set of missiles can hit an area the size of a football field.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> On April 22, Ukraine attempted to break through to Russia with tanks in the Goptovka area, this is a checkpoint on the Ukrainian-Russian border in the Dergachev district of the Kharkov region. The equipment was moving from the village of Svetlichnoye towards Kazachya Lopan. The Russian armed forces recorded a column of about 15 armored vehicles. Fire was opened, as a result of which 6 units of Ukrainian equipment were hit and destroyed by anti-tank missile systems, the remaining ones were fired from MLRS. At the moment, the Russian border checkpoint Nekhoteevka is closed until further notice. This was reported by war correspondent Yuri Kotenok.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian troops fired again at the Russian border checkpoint in the Kursk region. The governor of the Kursk region said that today from the side of Ukraine mortars fired again at the checkpoint on the border in the Glushkovsky district of the Kursk region. As a result, the premises of the Rosselkhoznadzor caught fire, and some sources also report damage to the customs post, mill and railway bridge. The shelling was carried out from the side of the Sumy region of Ukraine.



Thank you for the damage assessments.


----------



## Kirkhill

Good2Golf said:


> @Soldier35 is that what Russia calls the “hope and pray” method of non-PGM employment?
> 
> I guess the RF forces are now depending on Patriarch Kirill and good luck to hit targets?



A fling-wing and a prayer?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kat Stevens said:


> Why do I hear Boris Badenov's voice every time I read one of your posts? You bet we make big trouble for moooose and squirrel, too.


Say no more ...


----------



## brihard

Soldier35 said:


> attack pitch-up by Ka-52 and Mi-28N helicopters. The attack in this mode is used by Russian helicopters in Ukraine. This mode allows you to launch an attack with unguided S-8 missiles without entering the air defense zone of Ukraine. Before launching an attack, the pilot increases the angle of elevation of the nose of the aircraft, simultaneously releasing unguided missiles. According to approximate calculations, two helicopters with a full set of missiles can hit an area the size of a football field.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> On April 22, Ukraine attempted to break through to Russia with tanks in the Goptovka area, this is a checkpoint on the Ukrainian-Russian border in the Dergachev district of the Kharkov region. The equipment was moving from the village of Svetlichnoye towards Kazachya Lopan. The Russian armed forces recorded a column of about 15 armored vehicles. Fire was opened, as a result of which 6 units of Ukrainian equipment were hit and destroyed by anti-tank missile systems, the remaining ones were fired from MLRS. At the moment, the Russian border checkpoint Nekhoteevka is closed until further notice. This was reported by war correspondent Yuri Kotenok.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian troops fired again at the Russian border checkpoint in the Kursk region. The governor of the Kursk region said that today from the side of Ukraine mortars fired again at the checkpoint on the border in the Glushkovsky district of the Kursk region. As a result, the premises of the Rosselkhoznadzor caught fire, and some sources also report damage to the customs post, mill and railway bridge. The shelling was carried out from the side of the Sumy region of Ukraine.


So we’ve confirmed then that:

1- Russian helicopters cannot safely operate in close vicinity of Ukrainian formations, forcing them to lob unguided rockets in a completely ineffective manner and that:

2- Russia can’t even keep Ukraine off its own border or adequately protect its border troops on its own soil.

Sounds like things are going great for Ukraine. You may want to brush up on your AK-74 handling, _tovarisch_. Things may get desperate enough that even you’re needed to more directly contribute to the war effort.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517915891073228806


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517922202443780096


----------



## The Bread Guy

"Press gang" is such a harsh term (via UKR mil int info-machine) ....





						Occupiers Begin Forced Mobilization, Including Medics, in the Captured Territories of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Regions
					






					gur.gov.ua
				





> Occupiers are carrying out the mobilization of the Ukrainian medics, who remain in the occupied territories. In particular, in the town of Vovchansk (Kharkiv region), junior medical personnel are forcibly sent to the front line to provide first medical aid to russian wounded servicemen. In the case of refusal, medics are threatened with execution.
> 
> Mobilization measures have been also launched regarding young people from among the local population in the occupied territories of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv regions.
> 
> In order to ensure mobilization measures, the possibility of departure from Kherson region in the territories controlled by Ukraine is almost completely blocked. The possibility of departure to the russian federation is significantly limited ...


----------



## brihard

The Bread Guy said:


> "Press gang" is such a harsh term (via UKR mil int info-machine) ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Occupiers Begin Forced Mobilization, Including Medics, in the Captured Territories of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv Regions
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> gur.gov.ua


Cool, so the Russian occupiers are doing slavery on top of mass rape and human trafficking. That’s on brand.

@Soldier35 , any comment on why the Russian army cannot adequately provide for its own medical needs in the regions it’s invading?


----------



## The Bread Guy

brihard said:


> Cool, so the Russian occupiers are doing slavery on top of mass rape and human trafficking. That’s on brand.


Re:  the slavery thing, not just in that area if UKR's MoD info-machine is to be believed ....


> ... According to available information, russian enemy has significant problems with the medical support of its units, there are difficulties with the evacuation of the wounded, there is a lack of medicine. Due to the growing number of wounded, in the city of Balakliya, the enemy, along with the deployed military hospital, uses the capabilities of the city clinic.
> 
> In the city of Vovchansk, which is temporarily occupied, junior medical personnel of health care facilities are forcibly sent to provide first aid to russian enemy units on the line of contact with the Defence Forces of Ukraine.
> 
> Also, the russian troops have significant problems with the replenishment of personnel, attempts to forcibly mobilize residents of the Kherson region to the russian occupying forces continue.
> 
> According to available information, russian enemy uses civilian trucks to move military cargo in the temporarily occupied territories. Also, russian occupiers continue to use stolen agricultural machinery for military purposes ...


----------



## Brad Sallows

> an area the size of a football field



About what an infantry section occupies.  Impressive.


----------



## KevinB

Brad Sallows said:


> About what an infantry section occupies.  Impressive.


Plus you need to count the 60% dud rate…
   So about 1/3rd of the area.


----------



## Kirkhill

Fun on the ranges.  They just don't make guns like that any more.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ua9wea

Video on the link (actually there are no links)


----------



## Good2Golf

Brad Sallows said:


> About what an infantry section occupies.  Impressive.


Particularly brave knowing they have a 50% destruction rate from just sitting around in a combat zone instead of…..you know….flying.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Goofy on a number of levels this bit from RUS state media ...


----------



## Good2Golf

Wow!  Now they’re running counter-counter-false flag operations.  Toujours l’audace!


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Goofy on a number of levels this bit from RUS state media ...
> View attachment 70305


Well if we where planning to use a Jumpable SOF deployed LYND - we’d not tell Canada or take Justin’s call…


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> Wow!  Now they’re running counter-counter-false flag operations.  Toujours l’audace!


With a side of ironic backsplash here, too, also from RUS state media ....


----------



## AlexanderM

So this means they're thinking of hitting Poland?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517817549530050563


----------



## brihard

The Bread Guy said:


> With a side of ironic backsplash here, too, also from RUS state media ....
> View attachment 70306


Russia’s losing so hard that now they’re asking for Canada’s help to influence the US as part of their info ops efforts? That’s some serious small dick energy there.


----------



## KevinB

AlexanderM said:


> So this means they're thinking of hitting Poland?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517817549530050563


Putin’s trying to create an internal narrative to allow him to fully mobilize Russia and 1) prepare his population for the potential use of Nuclear weapons. 2) Justifications for why he’s losing badly.


----------



## KevinB

brihard said:


> Russia’s losing so hard that now they’re asking for Canada’s help to influence the US as part of their info ops efforts? That’s some serious small dick energy there.


While I don’t credit Socks with a lot of backbone, considering he’s called Russian actions genocide, so he may not really care about their feelings at this point.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517972766183636993


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Putin’s trying to create an internal narrative to allow him to fully mobilize Russia and 1) prepare his population for the potential use of Nuclear weapons. 2) Justifications for why he’s losing badly.


Agreed - especially with the array of narrative out there from RUS MoD & state media since last night ....

_*“US prepares provocations to accuse Russia of using tactical nuclear weapons” (RUS state media)*_
_*“Staged use of mass destruction weapons aimed at Russia’s isolation – Defense Ministry” (RUS state media)*_
_*“Russian Defense Ministry reports drone chemical attack on Russian troops in Ukraine” (RUS state media)*_
_*“US has three ways to accuse Russia of using mass destruction weapons in Ukraine – ministry” (RUS state media)*_
_*“Russian MoD: US Planning Provocations to Accuse Russian Forces of Using WMDs in Ukraine” (RUS state media)*_
_*"US, NATO move to final stage of plotting provocations in Ukraine, (RUS) diplomat says" (RUS state media) *_
_*"US plans to accuse Russia of using nukes in Ukraine – Moscow" (RUS state media) *_
_*"US Has Moved on to WMD Provocations After Economic Pressure Against Russia Failed, Zakharova Says" (RUS state media) *_


----------



## Kirkhill

US aid to Ukraine.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ua745v


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> US aid to Ukraine.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ua745v


If the big guy ever goes down for the count, the rest of us are truly, royally f&cked.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517972766183636993


Queue Chechen’s in 3,2,1…


----------



## TacticalTea

Kirkhill said:


> Fun on the ranges.  They just don't make guns like that any more.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ua9wea
> 
> Video on the link (actually there are no links)


_''The bravest of the brave could never match the Maxim gun.''_



Kirkhill said:


> US aid to Ukraine.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ua745v


The Arsenal of Democracy, FDR's 1940 speech, in which he described Britain as "the spearhead of resistance to world conquest". It is good to see the United Kingdom taking on that role once more to rise and be the nation again that stands against totalitarianism in Europe. 

Though they aren't exactly in the fight, given the modern reality of a nuclear world, so history may not be repeating itself, but it rhymes.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518026231270289409


----------



## Jarnhamar

KevinB said:


> While I don’t credit Socks with a lot of backbone, considering he’s called Russian actions genocide, so he may not really care about their feelings at this point.


Could be dicey if Russia offers to help Trudeau get a seat on the UN Security council.


----------



## FJAG

Kirkhill said:


> US aid to Ukraine.


Interesting figures 90 howitzers and 72 prime movers.

I saw a train of the better part of a Paladin battalion moving in Poland so that's probably the 18.

With 72 prime movers and 72 guns left over that sounds like 4 battalions of M777s. Interestingly Wikipedia says the US donated 90 M777s to the Ukraine and Canada 4.

🍻


----------



## Skysix

The Bread Guy said:


> Goofy on a number of levels this bit from RUS state media ...
> View attachment 70305


Typical Russian playbook. Accuse others of what you are planning to do.


----------



## Czech_pivo

FJAG said:


> Interesting figures 90 howitzers and 72 prime movers.
> 
> I saw a train of the better part of a Paladin battalion moving in Poland so that's probably the 18.
> 
> With 72 prime movers and 72 guns left over that sounds like 4 battalions of M777s. Interestingly Wikipedia says the US donated 90 M777s to the Ukraine and Canada 4.
> 
> 🍻


4 to Ukraine, 4 in Latvia, leaves 29 at home.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517961695305637889


----------



## Kirkhill

Some interesting comments about the first day at Hostomel and subsequent battles for Kyiv, about the difference between the Izyum battles and the Kyiv battles, and about Bucha.  From a pair of Special Forces types.

Their ask?  Air Defence and longer ranged weapons.

Machen sie weiter.  Bisschen schneller bitte.









						After fending off Russian troops in Kyiv, these Ukrainian special forces members are processing horrors and appealing for weapons
					

‘Their tactics didn’t work because they were told there would be no resistance’: Two Ukrainian special forces members recount the strange first hours of the Russian invasion




					www.theglobeandmail.com
				







> After fending off Russian troops in Kyiv, these Ukrainian special forces members are processing horrors and appealing for weapons​MARK MACKINNONSENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT
> KYIV
> PUBLISHED APRIL 22, 2022
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A man walks past a residential building in Hostomel destroyed during Russia's invasion of Ukraine, on April 22.STRINGER/REUTERS
> 65 COMMENTS
> SHARE
> BOOKMARK
> LISTEN TO ARTICLE
> 
> As Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, members of a Ukrainian special forces unit deployed to defend the strategic Hostomel airport outside Kyiv were stunned by what they saw as dawn broke: some 30 Russian attack helicopters coming over the horizon, speeding toward the airport.
> An added surprise was that the helicopters were moving on their own toward Hostomel, without supporting ground forces or barrages of long-range missile fire to weaken the Ukrainian defences. It was as if they expected no resistance at all.
> The Ukrainians, however, intended to resist. The defenders of Hostomel – a mix of regular soldiers and reservists that the special forces unit had been sent to bolster – opened fire with everything they had. The anti-aircraft weapons supplied by Western countries, which would prove so effective later in the war, hadn’t yet been delivered, so the Ukrainians shot at the helicopters with machine guns, as well as Soviet-era anti-tank missiles and rocket-propelled grenades. Videos taken that day show at least three Russian KA-52 helicopters were hit.
> How Ukrainian resistance continues to disrupt Vladimir Putin’s plans to take over
> Russia targets 61 Canadians with sanctions, including politicians, journalists and soldiers
> Canada in talks about reopening embassy in Ukraine
> The surprise attack briefly allowed Russian paratroopers, several hundred of them, to capture Hostomel. Sustained control of the cargo airport would have enabled Russia to begin landing tanks and artillery right on the edge of Kyiv in the first hours of the invasion. Some 18 Ilyushin cargo planes were reportedly on standby in Belarus to begin the airlift of military equipment that could have led to a quick capture of the Ukrainian capital.
> But the Russian assault was as risky as it was brazen – reflecting the Kremlin’s apparent belief that the Ukrainian army would not put up a significant fight, and that a large part of the population would welcome Russian troops. Shortly after landing, the Russian paratroopers found themselves surrounded on all sides and taking heavy losses as the Ukrainians were reinforced by their own paratroopers – as well as fighters from the Georgian Legion, a unit of battle-hardened foreign volunteers.
> By nightfall, all the Russian troops – some of the country’s most elite forces – had either died, surrendered or fled. Even more importantly, Hostomel’s airstrip had been rendered inoperable in the fighting, destroying the Kremlin’s plans.
> This account of the fighting at Hostomel is based on the records and recollections of two Ukrainian special forces members who participated in the battle. Looking back, they remain stunned by the strange first hours of the Russian invasion.
> “I would say these tactics would work in a Third World country against a Third World army, but shooting at these choppers wasn’t a critical problem for us,” one of the special forces fighters, 32-year-old Volodymyr, told The Globe and Mail in an interview this week. “Their tactics didn’t work because they were told there would be no resistance – and their plans were designed in this way.”
> Though Russian forces later recaptured Hostomel, the airlift to Kyiv was no longer possible, and when the same troops crossed overland from Belarus the Ukrainians fought the invaders to a standstill on the outskirts of the capital. At the end of March, Russia ended its assault on Kyiv and redeployed the forces that had been fighting there to eastern Ukraine, which is now the main front of the war.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A Ukrainian sapper searches for unexploded explosives as he passes by an Antonov An-225, the world's biggest cargo aircraft, destroyed during recent fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces, at the Antonov airport in Hostomel, on the outskirts of Kyiv, on April 18.EFREM LUKATSKY/THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
> The Russian withdrawal allowed Volodymyr and the other men in his unit, who usually operate in a small group of five or six fighters carrying out dangerous tasks at or behind the front line, to be the first to see the horrors left behind in Bucha, a suburb of Kyiv that was the headquarters of the occupation force, and where mass executions and other war crimes appear to have been committed.
> 
> STORY CONTINUES BELOW ADVERTISEMENT
> 
> The two special forces members who spoke about their experiences, Volodymyr and Dmytro, met with The Globe in Kyiv this week while in the capital for recuperation and retraining after Dmytro sustained a concussion on April 12 in the fighting around Izyum, a town in the eastern Kharkiv region that has fallen under Russian control as the fighting in the east has intensified.
> The Globe is not using the family names or unit details of Volodymyr, a native of the Kharkiv region, or Dmytro, a 31-year-old from Poltava region, in Ukraine’s centre-east, because they were not authorized to give media interviews.
> Both men believe that Ukraine will have to adjust its tactics – and receive even more military aid from its allies in the West – in order to stop the new Russian offensive in the east, which has seen Russian troops capture several towns this week. While drones and small units of special forces played an oversized role in the defence of Kyiv, the battle in the east is shaping up to be an old-fashioned clash of armies, with Russia holding the edge because of its superior air force, as well as its arsenal of long-range artillery and rockets.
> The fighters echoed Ukrainian government calls for the West to deliver long-range artillery and anti-aircraft systems to the Ukrainian army as soon as possible. “We need weapons that can keep them at a distance,” said Viktor Chumak, a former Ukrainian MP who served as an artillery specialist in the Soviet army. “We don’t need more weapons, we need better.”
> Canada recently promised $500-million in military aid to Ukraine, a package that is supposed to include long-range artillery. No timeline for the delivery of the weapons has been made public.
> Volodymyr and Dmytro’s account of the battle of Hostomel is corroborated by Mamuka Mamulashvili, the commander of the Georgian Legion, who was also involved. “We had no weapons to shoot helicopters, only 50-calibre machine guns, but it worked very good,” Mr. Mamulashvili said. He claimed that his men shot down one of the three destroyed helicopters.
> The Russian tactics were bewildering to the Georgians as well. “Putin has never had objective information about the real ability of his armed forces … he never knew the real ability, what they can do on the battlefield,” said Mr. Mamulashvili, who has been fighting Russian troops since a 1990s war in his native Georgia.
> Both Volodymyr and Dmytro have GoPro videos of fighting saved to their phones, which they showed The Globe as evidence of some of the battles they had participated in over the first two months of the war. They described their main task as operating covertly behind enemy lines to ambush tanks and disrupt supply lines.
> Their assessment of the different challenges Ukraine will face on the eastern front is supported by Ukrainian and Western military analysts The Globe spoke to. While the Kyiv region is densely forested and split by rivers – near-ideal terrain for special forces operations – much of eastern Ukraine is a broad, flat steppe, making Russia’s numerical advantage more important.
> “Theoretically they will have a better force density ratio, so that should help them,” Konrad Muzyka, a Polish military analyst, said of the Russian forces. “But also they are now using troops which are quite battered, so I am not sure to what extent this will work.”
> In a sign of how unprepared Ukraine was for the initial Russian attack – President Volodymyr Zelensky had downplayed the possibility of invasion until just days before it happened – the special forces fighters said they were put on war footing and deployed to Hostomel less than 24 hours before the war began.
> Though they had seen some triumphs, neither Volodymyr nor Dmytro was in a celebratory mood after what they and their country had been through over 58 days of war.
> When their unit entered Bucha as Russian forces withdrew from the region at the end of March, they found the town battle-scarred. Volodymyr, a tall and earnest man with broad shoulders and short brown hair, said residents mistook the group for armed civilians at first. “But when we said ‘We’re the Ukrainians, we’re back,’ they started to cry,” he said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> People walk through debris and destroyed Russian military vehicles on a street in Bucha, Ukraine, on April 6.CHRIS MCGRATH/GETTY IMAGES
> The unit soon came to understand why Bucha residents were crying. Bodies of civilians, many of whom appeared to have died days or weeks before, lay in the streets. An old woman, who said she hadn’t eaten bread in a month, came begging for food. “All these frightened [Russians] were shooting at everyone so no one would shoot at them,” said Dmytro, a muscled fighter with a neat black beard who said he has been in the military since he was 18. “They were literally afraid of everyone. All of the bodies in the streets were within eyesight of the Russian positions.”
> More than 500 bodies, many of them shot in their heads with their hands tied behind their backs, have been recovered in Bucha since the Russian withdrawal. There have been accounts of Russian troops committing torture and organized rape in the area.
> After a visit to Bucha and the nearby town of Borodyanka, Karim Khan, chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, said there were “reasonable grounds” to believe Russian forces had committed war crimes.
> There was no time for the members of the special forces unit to process the horrors they had seen in Bucha before they were deployed to the east, as the main Russian offensive shifted there.
> The unit’s experience in the fighting around Izyum illustrates the greater challenges Ukraine will face defending its eastern flank. While Dmytro has a mobile phone full of evidence of the successes the unit had fighting around Kyiv, the same strategies did not work on the new battleground.
> The battle for a key crossroads near Izyum was similar to a series of firefights the unit had been engaged in around the capital. A group of Ukrainian special forces fighters, 15 in this case, tried to ambush a group of five Russian tanks.
> But this time Russian drones patrolled the sky, watching the movements of the Ukrainians. As the Ukrainians crept forward, a tank shell landed near the group. Dmytro and two colleagues were wounded. “It wasn’t bad tactics. They just control the sky,” Volodymyr said, adding that his unit was lucky not to have sustained fatalities.
> As Russia’s army grinds forward in eastern Ukraine, it is using its long-range weapons to keep the Ukrainians at bay – often demolishing entire villages and towns in the process. The scorched-earth tactic is drawn right from the Soviet military playbook, the Ukrainian fighters said: destroy everything in their path, and crush all resistance in the process.
> Volodymyr and Dmytro are worried about what comes next, particularly if the promised Western arms don’t arrive soon enough. On Friday, Russian state media quoted a senior general saying Russia’s war aim is now to capture all of southern and eastern Ukraine, creating a territorial link between Russia and the occupied Crimean Peninsula, as well as the breakaway Transnistria region of Moldova, west of Ukraine, where Russian forces are already stationed.
> “The story is absolutely different now,” Dmytro said of the second phase of the war. “People have the spirit to fight to the end, but we need to be supplied with the equipment to do the job.”
> _Our Morning Update and Evening Update newsletters are written by Globe editors, giving you a concise summary of the day’s most important headlines. __Sign up today__._


----------



## The Bread Guy

The Bread Guy said:


> Agreed - especially with the array of narrative out there from RUS MoD & state media since last night ....
> 
> _*“US prepares provocations to accuse Russia of using tactical nuclear weapons” (RUS state media)*_
> _*“Staged use of mass destruction weapons aimed at Russia’s isolation – Defense Ministry” (RUS state media)*_
> _*“Russian Defense Ministry reports drone chemical attack on Russian troops in Ukraine” (RUS state media)*_
> _*“US has three ways to accuse Russia of using mass destruction weapons in Ukraine – ministry” (RUS state media)*_
> _*“Russian MoD: US Planning Provocations to Accuse Russian Forces of Using WMDs in Ukraine” (RUS state media)*_
> _*"US, NATO move to final stage of plotting provocations in Ukraine, (RUS) diplomat says" (RUS state media) *_
> _*"US plans to accuse Russia of using nukes in Ukraine – Moscow" (RUS state media) *_
> _*"US Has Moved on to WMD Provocations After Economic Pressure Against Russia Failed, Zakharova Says" (RUS state media) *_


Some follow-up:  if you're interested in a primary source (of sorts, anyway), here's the RUS MoD's briefing statement and deck (safe  PDFs) from yesterday's "they're gonna use WMD, not us - you just watch ..." briefing in Moscow.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Turkey feeling a bit more NATO'ish today?








						Turkey closes airspace to Russian planes carrying troops to Syria
					

***




					www.haaretz.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

You know at least SOME institutional flinch has been created when (via RUS independent media) ....
_"(RUS) Police called to house of Russian woman (in Pskov) who painted her fence blue and yellow"_​


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some DEU media say Swiss blocking German ammo shipments to UKR








						Swiss veto German request to re-export ammunition to Ukraine, SonntagsZeitung reports
					

Neutral Switzerland has held up German arms deliveries to Ukraine by blocking the re-export of Swiss-made ammunition used in Marder infantry fighting vehicles that Kyiv would like to get, Swiss paper SonntagsZeitung reported.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Underway

FJAG said:


> Interesting figures 90 howitzers and 72 prime movers.
> 
> I saw a train of the better part of a Paladin battalion moving in Poland so that's probably the 18.
> 
> With 72 prime movers and 72 guns left over that sounds like 4 battalions of M777s. Interestingly Wikipedia says the US donated 90 M777s to the Ukraine and Canada 4.
> 
> 🍻


UK is sending some M777 and a pile of ammo.  Canada is sending ammo as well including what's left of the Excalibur stock from Afghanistan (at least what I read).

I was a little irritated with the  4 guns, but then I realized that just over 10% of our total Reg F artillery. So I shut up.

Yesterday I was predicting when the French election is over France would step up.  France this morning announced 10 CEASAR 155mm systems and ammo as well as MILAN ATGM.  Jumping the gun on an election win but France is concerned that non-European leadership will get involved with the conflict instead of them.

I find it hilarious that he essentially called out Turkey as a non-European power when they clearly are.  Classic French.


----------



## Eaglelord17

The Bread Guy said:


> Some DEU media say Swiss blocking German ammo shipments to UKR
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Swiss veto German request to re-export ammunition to Ukraine, SonntagsZeitung reports
> 
> 
> Neutral Switzerland has held up German arms deliveries to Ukraine by blocking the re-export of Swiss-made ammunition used in Marder infantry fighting vehicles that Kyiv would like to get, Swiss paper SonntagsZeitung reported.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


Interesting stance, we are neutral but we are going to sanction you.

Personally I had a ton of respect for Swiss neutrality. It saw them through many centuries unscathed by war and allowed them to grow into a independent and rightfully proud nation (they truly possess the finest democracy on the planet). But they are throwing that out the window with these sanctions yet lack the commitment to engage fully. I am not sure they fully understand the long term effects of what they have done yet.



Underway said:


> UK is sending some M777 and a pile of ammo.  Canada is sending ammo as well including what's left of the Excalibur stock from Afghanistan (at least what I read).
> 
> I was a little irritated with the  4 guns, but then I realized that just over 10% of our total Reg F artillery. So I shut up.
> 
> Yesterday I was predicting when the French election is over France would step up.  France this morning announced 10 CEASAR 155mm systems and ammo as well as MILAN ATGM.  Jumping the gun on an election win but France is concerned that non-European leadership will get involved with the conflict instead of them.
> 
> I find it hilarious that he essentially called out Turkey as a non-European power when they clearly are.  Classic French.



Depends on what you consider European. Turkey is mainly in Asia, basically only Istanbul is in Europe. They have always been the foreigners pushing into Europe, not from Europe itself.


----------



## MilEME09

Ukraine may not be in NATO, but their army sure is starting to look like a NATO battlegroup.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518135336093863936


----------



## Underway

Eaglelord17 said:


> Depends on what you consider European. Turkey is mainly in Asia, basically only Istanbul is in Europe. They have always been the foreigners pushing into Europe, not from Europe itself.


You sound like a Greek.  

Seriously though if you've ever been to Turkey its a bipolar place.  Half modern Europe, half old near East.  But there is no loved losses between Russia and Turkey.  Their proxies just fought a war and Turkey closing its airspace is an important step. Slowly tightening the noose.

Turkey can see that with Russia significantly weakened in Ukraine this allows them free action in the region.  Their nose is still out of joint by Russia's involvement in Syria.


----------



## Underway

MilEME09 said:


> Ukraine may not be in NATO, but their army sure is starting to look like a NATO battlegroup.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518135336093863936


So more 155mm weapons, and that SIDAM 25 will be really useful vs drones and helicopters.  Ukraine is beginning to amass some serious artillery.  Double down on what they are good at I suppose!


----------



## MilEME09

Underway said:


> So more 155mm weapons, and that SIDAM 25 will be really useful vs drones and helicopters.  Ukraine is beginning to amass some serious artillery.  Double down on what they are good at I suppose!


A PzH2000 with RAP can apparently reach out to 90km according to Wikipedia (I know not the best source) but the increased range of western arty means less worry of counter battery fire, and troops will have arty support for longer before the guns have to move closer to the front. 

If they do get Excalibur rounds, those can help deal with Russian positions in cities.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Eaglelord17 said:


> ... Personally I had a ton of respect for Swiss neutrality. It saw them through many centuries unscathed by war and allowed them to grow into a independent and rightfully proud nation (they truly possess the finest democracy on the planet). But they are throwing that out the window with these sanctions yet lack the commitment to engage fully ...


Credit where due, though - everybody did a pretty significant "WTF?!?!?!" when the Swiss said, "yeah, we won't protect just anyone's finances anymore."


Eaglelord17 said:


> ... Turkey is mainly in Asia, basically only Istanbul is in Europe. They have always been the foreigners pushing into Europe, not from Europe itself.





Underway said:


> ... its a bipolar place.  Half modern Europe, half old near East ...


... which may also explain its ... eclectic approach to alliances East & West.


----------



## Kat Stevens

The Bread Guy said:


> Credit where due, though - everybody did a pretty significant "WTF?!?!?!" when the Swiss said, "yeah, we won't protect just anyone's finances anymore."
> 
> 
> ... which may also explain its ... eclectic approach to alliances East & West.


Perhaps "schizophrenic" is a better word.


----------



## The Bread Guy

The Bread Guy said:


> Goofy on a number of levels this bit from RUS state media ...
> View attachment 70305


For the record, here's the Ambassador's full statement (via Twitter)


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518247524162805767
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517841336648491009


It's an incredible diversity of platforms!
Though I bet its much better than what Russia can bring to the fore as its replacements


----------



## Kirkhill

Soviet era systems that will work with existing stocks in the East.

— 9 D-30  - 122mm
— 20+ Gvozdika  - 122mm
— 20+ DANA and DANA M2 - 152mm
— BM-21 Grad  - 122mm Rkt
— RM-70 - 122mm Rkt


NATO systems

Emplaced (Line of Contact)

— 4 M777 - 155mm 39 Cal
— 18 + 72 M777  - 155mm 39 Cal

Mobile (Linebacker)

— 2+4 M109A4BE - 155mm 39 Cal  
— 20 AS-90  - 155mm 39 Cal

Depth Fires

— 18 Zuzana - 155mm 52 Cal  
— 12 CAESAR - 155mm 52 Cal
—  24+ PzH 2000 - 155mm 52 Cal 
— M142 HIMARS


----------



## Kirkhill

Soldier35 said:


> A powerful blow from the Russian UR-77 in Ukraine. The Russian military, in the battles in Ukraine, began to use installations for demining, for strikes against the enemy. The UR-77 "Meteorite" mine-clearing installation, also known as the "Snake Gorynych", was created on the basis of the 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer and is designed to make moves in anti-tank minefields during the battle. The UR-77 "Meteorite" installation, with the help of rockets, fires powder charges placed in hoses at a distance of about 500 meters. After that, the car drives back, the hose with the charge is stretched and it is activated. One of the episodes of the combat use of the UR-77 in Ukraine was caught on video



Thanks for the comical interlude spambot.  Back to the discussion.


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518057173846306816


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> A powerful blow from the Russian UR-77 in Ukraine. The Russian military, in the battles in Ukraine, began to use installations for demining, for strikes against the enemy. The UR-77 "Meteorite" mine-clearing installation, also known as the "Snake Gorynych", was created on the basis of the 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer and is designed to make moves in anti-tank minefields during the battle. The UR-77 "Meteorite" installation, with the help of rockets, fires powder charges placed in hoses at a distance of about 500 meters. After that, the car drives back, the hose with the charge is stretched and it is activated. One of the episodes of the combat use of the UR-77 in Ukraine was caught on video


@Soldier35, I think your browser’s spelling autocorrect changed ‘civilian apartment’ to ‘mine-clearing’…you may want to get the latest updates so your beloved Comrades don’t get labeled as genocidal incompetents…


----------



## MilEME09

Atleast our vehicles aren't what ever this is

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518288049842659333
In other news

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518305080709156866


----------



## Underway

Infanteer said:


> Those Ukrainian mixed fleets will probably be shot out or destroyed on the battlefield long before maintenance ever becomes an issue.


I'm reminded of a documentary where they interviewed a Canadian WW2 Sherman crew commander.  Canadian engineers had placed German tracks on the front of the Sherman as ablative armour. US engineers pointed out they would lose 500 miles on the engine if they did that.  His response was to point to a hill in the distance he walked back from after getting two tanks shot out from under him... "If it gets me to the other side of the hill without dying it's paid for itself".

I agree totally, the mixed fleet will suffer heavy attrition very early.  The ones that are damaged will be cannibalized to fix the ones that are not etc...  
STAR News had an interesting take and showed the M777 in action with of course RCHA/RCA soldiers in Afghanistan as their background image.
They also pointed out that this Phoenix Ghost Drone or whatever it's called was developed by the US specifically for use in the Donbas based on Ukrainian feedback on what they were experiencing in that area.


----------



## Kirkhill

Infanteer said:


> Doesn't sound like a requirement for a military with 150 years as an expeditionary force.  I would rather have a Bde in use than a Div packed away doing nothing.



And thereby hangs the tale.  The Army doesn't see a domestic function.  It is an expeditionary institution.  And it is quite good at that.

But it sees money spent on the domestic side as a threat to its expeditionary existence.

In the past I have half-heartedly and jokingly suggested that the Forces should be split between NORAD and NATO with the Army and Navy focusing on NATO while the RCAF focuses on NORAD.  

The more I consider the situation the more inclined I am to find merit in reinstating the RCAFs eliminated Radar Squadrons (19 of them) as the key elements of a GBAD network to be supplemented by the Militia and the Rangers for domestic service.  The RCAF is already attuned to domestic service, emergency assistance and disaster relief,  and supplying transport for soldiers.  

The Army and the Navy would then be free to sort transport and support issues between themselves and decide how much and what kind of air support they were willing to fund.


----------



## Kirkhill

McG said:


> Are thread splits still possible?



And my apologies to the Moderators for contributing to this mess.  Clean up on thread 2.


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> Atleast our vehicles aren't what ever this is
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518288049842659333
> In other news
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518305080709156866



The Russians have been trying to break into those villages and out of that pocket for a month now.  

The issue is, no matter how many troops they put into the mill, their assault fronts are only one road wide and they cant get off the road to maneuver freely because of steep valley sides and muddy ground.

The Ukrainians aren't facing BTGs.  They are facing section and platoons in columns.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518319415561015297


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518322853862592512


----------



## The Bread Guy

Team USSR 2.0 Institutional Flinch (TM) update ...








						Kremlin May Put 'Political Instructors' In Ministries, State Companies To Bolster Support
					

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s administration has recommended placing people inside ministries, government agencies, and state-owned companies to spread the Kremlin's political agenda among employees -- a move that harks back to Soviet times -- amid concern over fraying support.




					www.rferl.org


----------



## armrdsoul77

Speaking of attrition is it time for the Caspian Sea Monster to enter the fight?

The 'Caspian Sea Monster' rises from the grave


----------



## Gunnar

The Bread Guy said:


> Team USSR 2.0 Institutional Flinch (TM) update ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Kremlin May Put 'Political Instructors' In Ministries, State Companies To Bolster Support
> 
> 
> Russian President Vladimir Putin’s administration has recommended placing people inside ministries, government agencies, and state-owned companies to spread the Kremlin's political agenda among employees -- a move that harks back to Soviet times -- amid concern over fraying support.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rferl.org


Alles klar, Herr Kommisar?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Gunnar said:


> Alles klar, Herr Kommisar?


#EverythingOldIsNewAgain

Meanwhile, from the U.N. info-machine ....








						'Tomorrow could be too late': The UN calls for an immediate halt to fighting in Mariupol, Ukraine
					

Today, Viet Nam provides 75 uniformed personnel, including 16 women, with its largest deployment in South Sudan, where 67 peacekeepers serve.




					news.un.org


----------



## Skysix

The Bread Guy said:


> Team USSR 2.0 Institutional Flinch (TM) update ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Kremlin May Put 'Political Instructors' In Ministries, State Companies To Bolster Support
> 
> 
> Russian President Vladimir Putin’s administration has recommended placing people inside ministries, government agencies, and state-owned companies to spread the Kremlin's political agenda among employees -- a move that harks back to Soviet times -- amid concern over fraying support.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rferl.org


So when do we stop using Russian SMO and start using Neo-Soviet War to describe the last 60 days? USSR 2.0 seems to be accurate.


----------



## Gunnar

Skysix said:


> So when do we stop using Russian SMO and start using Neo-Soviet War to describe the last 60 days? USSR 2.0 seems to be accurate.


Let's be trendsetters.  Why ask?

Plus, "soviet" has all those warm and fuzzy connotations for Eastern European countries...Back in the day, "Soviet matches" were matches that wouldn't light, "Soviet shoes" were shoes that didn't fit, broke easily, were incredibly sub-standard.  Really kinda describes the Russian Army, and other elements of their extremely robust and efficient political and military systems.....


----------



## Skysix

The Bread Guy said:


> Team USSR 2.0 Institutional Flinch (TM) update ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Kremlin May Put 'Political Instructors' In Ministries, State Companies To Bolster Support
> 
> 
> Russian President Vladimir Putin’s administration has recommended placing people inside ministries, government agencies, and state-owned companies to spread the Kremlin's political agenda among employees -- a move that harks back to Soviet times -- amid concern over fraying support.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rferl.org


So when do we stop using Russian SMO and start using Neo-Soviet war to describe the last 60 days? USSR 2.0


Gunnar said:


> Let's be trendsetters.  Why ask?
> 
> Plus, "soviet" has all those warm and fuzzy connotations for Eastern European countries...Back in the day, "Soviet matches" were matches that wouldn't light, "Soviet shoes" were shoes that didn't fit, broke easily, were incredibly sub-standard.  Really kinda describes the Russian Army, and other elements of their extremely robust and efficient political and military systems.....


The 2nd Great Patriotic War. But this time it is Ukraine's. Mariopul = Stalingrad. Bucha = BabaYar. Not sure what will be the Kursk equivalent, but I am sure once the fields dry out it will happen. Kherson?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Skysix said:


> ... The 2nd Great Patriotic War. But this time it is Ukraine's. Mariopul = Stalingrad. Bucha = BabaYar. Not sure what will be the Kursk equivalent, but I am sure once the fields dry out it will happen. Kherson?


Both sides are using colours from the WW2 narrative palette to paint with, for sure.  It was UKR that brought back the idea of "hero cities" only last month ....





						Hero City of Ukraine - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				



... while the Donetsk rebels revived the State Defence Committee concept as a bit of an homage (links to Google translation of Russian article @ Donetsk rebel media):


> ... "Taking the best experience of fighting Nazism from our grandfathers and great-grandfathers, a State Defense Committee was created in the Republic, " the leader of the DPR emphasized ...


And that's just two examples that leap off the top of my head without Google-fu'ing.

Whoever said history often rhymes was pretty bang on.


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518342359406325760


----------



## McG

We are already at war with Russia
					

War with Russia is not just a matter for Ukraine. Putin understands this. The West does not.




					www.newstatesman.com


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518363169781080064


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

McG said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518363169781080064


Oh wow NATO, I only mentioned this around a month ago 🤣

It would be great if the EU could give Turkey membership, maybe they would open the straits 🤣

Oh wait, Macron said yesterday they aren't European. 🤫


----------



## Skysix

Geographically challenged. Doesn't Nordstream 1 go through Poland or Slovakia or some other non German former Soviet territory?

Would be a real shame if those pipelines were to be closed off at 2 control points, drained between them, and then the empty section destroyed. I guess they really are 'Green' Berets.

Of course a saboteur cell or two across the border could do the same in Belarus a lot faster and dirtier - just light the spill on fire to minimize ground contamination.

At the very least physically shut down the pipelines that pass through Ukraine. The west needs to stop sending $ or rubles or whatever to Russia, like yesterday.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Skysix said:


> Geographically challenged. Doesn't Nordstream 1 go through Poland or some other non German former Soviet territory?
> 
> Would be a real shame if those pipelines were to be closed off at 2 control points, drained between them, and then the empty section destroyed. I guess they really are 'Green' Berets.
> 
> Of course a saboteur cell or two across the border could do the same in Belarus a lot faster and dirtier - just light the spill on fire to minimize ground contamination


The EU and NATO are already fractured, do you really want to open the wound right up?


----------



## Skysix

Humphrey Bogart said:


> The EU and NATO are already fractured, do you really want to open the wound right up?


Well, shutting down the 30% or so that passes through Ukraine should be a no brainer. Hurts some, doesn't cripple Germany, can be blamed on Russian missiles and artillery.

But why are you so worried about NATO fracturing? It already is. It is other military and security alliances that are now relied on. NATO needing concensus means nothing significant will be done unless Putin is dumb enough to actually (as opposed to threatening) trigger A5.

And the UN with Russia voting the former USSR permanent seat's vote renders it useless and toothless.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Skysix said:


> Well, shutting down the 30% or so that passes through Ukraine should be a no brainer. Hurts some, doesn't cripple Germany, can be blamed on Russian missiles and artillery.
> 
> But why are you so worried about NATO fracturing? It already is. It is other military and security alliances that are now relied on. NATO breeding concensus means nothing significant will be done unless Putin is dumb enough to actually (as opposed to threatening) trigger AT.
> 
> And the UN with Russia voting the former USSR permanent seat
> vote renders it useless and toothless.


Pipelines thru Ukraine generate profits via transit fees for Ukraine.  It would also erode support from European partners.

The gas still flows and Ukraine is quite happy to keep it that way.


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> Geographically challenged. Doesn't Nordstream 1 go through Poland or Slovakia or some other non German former Soviet territory?
> 
> Would be a real shame if those pipelines were to be closed off at 2 control points, drained between them, and then the empty section destroyed. I guess they really are 'Green' Berets.
> 
> Of course a saboteur cell or two across the border could do the same in Belarus a lot faster and dirtier - just light the spill on fire to minimize ground contamination.
> 
> At the very least physically shut down the pipelines that pass through Ukraine. The west needs to stop sending $ or rubles or whatever to Russia, like yesterday.




Skysix - the Nordstream lines go down the middle of the Baltic direct from Russia to Germany.  That turned Germany into the Natural Gas broker for Europe, displacing Ukraine through which all the old Comecon/Warsaw Pact era lines run.


----------



## MilEME09

Jesus....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518374322569547777


----------



## McG

So it’s like a Giant Viper, Python, or MICLIC?


----------



## AlexanderM

In another tweet it's saying it may have been a strike on an oil depot.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518379523284348928

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518383893698732032


----------



## Kirkhill

A really interesting piece, if a bit convoluted, on the quality and effectiveness of Russian artillery.
The supposition is that Russia is short of the precision fusing necessary for airbursts and that a lot of their artillery fuses and rockets are, for want of a better word, stale.  They are too old.  Hence duds and shorts.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uax7r7


----------



## Kirkhill

Comparison of Donbas 2022 to Kursk 1943.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uaq3fx


----------



## Kirkhill

Britain is now upping the ante

2 Tank Regiments to Poland
1 Tank Sqn to Finland
1 Tank Sqn and the Royal Welsh Battlegroup to Estonia
16 AAB and 1CAB to Macedonia
RAF patrols over Romania

6000 over the standing commitment to NATO

And 20 AS90s to the Ukrainians.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ub17wa


----------



## MilEME09

Something Something definition of insanity 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518387241264984064


----------



## Underway

Skysix said:


> Geographically challenged. Doesn't Nordstream 1 go through Poland or Slovakia or some other non German former Soviet territory?
> 
> Would be a real shame if those pipelines were to be closed off at 2 control points, drained between them, and then the empty section destroyed. I guess they really are 'Green' Berets.
> 
> Of course a saboteur cell or two across the border could do the same in Belarus a lot faster and dirtier - just light the spill on fire to minimize ground contamination.
> 
> At the very least physically shut down the pipelines that pass through Ukraine. The west needs to stop sending $ or rubles or whatever to Russia, like yesterday.


Yeah it would be a shame because it would freeze millions of Germans next winter and drive their entire economy into a brutal recession, and thus Europe into recession.  Which would then play into Russia's hands that the US is inflicting pain on the rest of the world to pick on Russia.  Want NATO to fracture, attack the Germans.


----------



## Skysix

Underway said:


> Yeah it would be a shame because it would freeze millions of Germans next winter and drive their entire economy into a brutal recession, and thus Europe into recession.  Which would then play into Russia's hands that the US is inflicting pain on the rest of the world to pick on Russia.  Want NATO to fracture, attack the Germans.


Ok, consider me schooled. Bad idea.


----------



## MilEME09

Underway said:


> Yeah it would be a shame because it would freeze millions of Germans next winter and drive their entire economy into a brutal recession, and thus Europe into recession.  Which would then play into Russia's hands that the US is inflicting pain on the rest of the world to pick on Russia.  Want NATO to fracture, attack the Germans.


Might be to late for that, Byransk oil facilities are part of the Druzhba pipeline.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Underway said:


> Yeah it would be a shame because it would freeze millions of Germans next winter and drive their entire economy into a brutal recession, and thus Europe into recession.  Which would then play into Russia's hands that the US is inflicting pain on the rest of the world to pick on Russia.  Want NATO to fracture, attack the Germans.


How dare you bring geopolitics and serious responses to this thread 

I much prefer when it's brainless bloodlust and unchecked jingoism


----------



## AlexanderM

MilEME09 said:


> Might be to late for that, Byransk oil facilities are part of the Druzhba pipeline.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518420462816346113


----------



## AlexanderM

I'm seeing tweets like this referring to, is it something bigger or something else, one saying is it a Russian underground, I guess there are a number of events occurring?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518419416706338816


----------



## Prairie canuck

Bryansk is a minimum of 100km from the Ukrainian border so I'm guessing it wasn't hit by artillery. Airstrike? Missile? Saboteurs?


----------



## MilEME09

Prairie canuck said:


> Bryansk is a minimum of 100km from the Ukrainian border so I'm guessing it wasn't hit by artillery. Airstrike? Missile? Saboteurs?


two things were hit, 1st one is the refinery it self, the second is the rail fuel transfer/loading station at the near by military base. This looks to be a deliberate strike to starve the Russian war machine of fuel.


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> two things were hit, 1st one is the refinery it self, the second is the rail fuel transfer/loading station at the near by military base. This looks to be a deliberate strike to starve the Russian war machine of fuel.


----------



## AlexanderM

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516454620335415300


----------



## Maxman1

Eaglelord17 said:


> basically only Istanbul is in Europe.



Not Constantinople?


McG said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518057173846306816



He looks like an altar boy.


armrdsoul77 said:


> Speaking of attrition is it time for the Caspian Sea Monster to enter the fight?
> View attachment 70321
> The 'Caspian Sea Monster' rises from the grave



While it's good that they're going to do something with the Lun instead of continuing to let it rot, it's a bit of a letdown that they aren't raising the _ actual_ Caspian Sea Monster, a different, larger ekranoplan that sank in 1980.


----------



## The Bread Guy

More from the info-fight:  here's what _The Guardian_ says ...


> ... According to a number of witnesses in Bucha, fléchette rounds were fired by Russian artillery a few days before forces withdrew from the (Bucha) area at the end of March ...


versus what RUS's pravda.ru says ...


> ... The authors of the article again blamed the Russian army for the deaths of civilians, but the conclusions of experts indicate the opposite.  Tiny "arrows" found in the bodies are "stuffed" with artillery shells. And if people died at a time when the city was occupied by Russian troops, then it turns out that they were also shooting their own as well.  In addition, flashettes were repeatedly found in the bodies of victims of Ukrainian shelling in the Donbass. Their use has been recorded since the siege of Slavyansk.  It turns out that the inhabitants of Bucha died during the shelling of the Russian units leaving the city by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.


#EnjoyTheLies


----------



## The Bread Guy

Once again, via RUS's MoD (full statement in official English attached) "you're free to go" (sorta-kinda)


> The leadership of the Russian Federation once again confirms the previously opened and permanently operating for the 36th day (from March 21, 2022) round-the-clock humanitarian corridor from the Azovstal metallurgical plant for the evacuation of civilians (workers, women and children), whose alleged presence in the underground structures of the plant is publicly announced by the Kiev authorities.
> 
> At the same time, the Armed Forces of Russia and the formations of the Donetsk People's Republic from 14:00 (Moscow time)* on April 25, 2022 unilaterally cease any hostilities, units are withdrawn to a safe distance and ensure the withdrawal of the specified category of citizens in any directions they choose.
> 
> The actual readiness of the Ukrainian side to launch a humanitarian operation is indicated by raising white flags around the perimeter or in certain directions of Azovstal.
> 
> The Russian Federation publicly and officially declares that there are no obstacles to the exit of civilians from Azovstal, except for the principled decision of the Kiev authorities themselves and the commanders of nationalist formations to continue to hold civilians as a "human shield" ...


* - That's 0800 Eastern.

We'll see ...


----------



## Underway

Maxman1 said:


> Not Constantinople?


That's nobody's business but the Turks.


----------



## Underway

Kirkhill said:


> Comparison of Donbas 2022 to Kursk 1943.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uaq3fx


There are some similarities but I outright reject some of the arguments made here.  The defensive formations created are not nearly as comprehensive as at Kursk, the German advance in the south was successfully fought but the Russian counterattack north of the Kursk salient ended their ability to pinch off the salient, and the tank tactics are much different.

The political situation is different as well and the similarities are only in passing.


----------



## McG

A UK professor of strategic studies claims the current Russian war fighting behaviour "is a sign of either stupidity or desperation."








						Is Russia stupid? asks Phillips O'Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews - EU Today
					

EU Today - News, Views, & Analysis From Across The EU & Beyond



					eutoday.net


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> two things were hit, 1st one is the refinery it self, the second is the rail fuel transfer/loading station at the near by military base. This looks to be a deliberate strike to starve the Russian war machine of fuel.


I would hazard a guess that is internal Russia anti-war activity.  However one can never discount Russian false flag attacks to justify greater responses.


----------



## Underway

McG said:


> A UK professor of strategic studies claims the current Russian war fighting behaviour "is a sign of either stupidity or desperation."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Is Russia stupid? asks Phillips O'Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews - EU Today
> 
> 
> EU Today - News, Views, & Analysis From Across The EU & Beyond
> 
> 
> 
> eutoday.net


So the narrative is that Ukraine is a lighter army.  And that serves Ukraine well in the "we are being picked on" narrative.  But are they still a lighter army?  They apparently have more armour assets than Russia does now when you do the math for Russian losses and Ukrainian gains (either through captured vehicles or donated ones from NATO).  Their artillery within the next month will be much heavier with the addition of all the NATO 155mm guns and SPA's.

Once Ukraine is able to digest these weapons they may be in a materially superior position than the Russians.  The trend lines are going in different directions.


----------



## MilEME09

Underway said:


> So the narrative is that Ukraine is a lighter army.  And that serves Ukraine well in the "we are being picked on" narrative.  But are they still a lighter army?  They apparently have more armour assets than Russia does now when you do the math for Russian losses and Ukrainian gains (either through captured vehicles or donated ones from NATO).  Their artillery within the next month will be much heavier with the addition of all the NATO 155mm guns and SPA's.
> 
> Once Ukraine is able to digest these weapons they may be in a materially superior position than the Russians.  The trend lines are going in different directions.


Exactly why Ukraine needs to just hold the line for the next few weeks. Not to mention the fact we have no numbers about Ukrainian man power. I wouldn't be surprised if they had enough new recruits going through basic to add a couple new brigades to the fight soon. I'd imagine the Ukrainian counter offensive may kick up a bit once this new gear hits the field


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Underway said:


> There are some similarities but I outright reject some of the arguments made here.  The defensive formations created are not nearly as comprehensive as at Kursk, the German advance in the south was successfully fought but the Russian counterattack north of the Kursk salient ended their ability to pinch off the salient, and the tank tactics are much different.
> 
> The political situation is different as well and the similarities are only in passing.


It briefs so well though 😉.  I think it's the Russians who are relentlessly shelling and bombarding the Ukrainians, not the other way around.  

Also, I thought Ukraine "had more tanks" than Russia now? Hmmm 🤔


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518483648164548608


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518483648164548608


My God does Zelensky look absolutely tired with everyone's shit.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

rmc_wannabe said:


> My God does Zelensky look absolutely tired with everyone's shit.


He looks like Eastern European Che Guevara


----------



## Kirkhill

Underway said:


> So the narrative is that Ukraine is a lighter army.  And that serves Ukraine well in the "we are being picked on" narrative.  But are they still a lighter army?  They apparently have more armour assets than Russia does now when you do the math for Russian losses and Ukrainian gains (either through captured vehicles or donated ones from NATO).  Their artillery within the next month will be much heavier with the addition of all the NATO 155mm guns and SPA's.
> 
> Once Ukraine is able to digest these weapons they may be in a materially superior position than the Russians.  The trend lines are going in different directions.



For me the fascinating bit is how the Ukrainians are demonstrating an ability to adapt to form new organizations with new kit and train those organizations to a level that they can get useful service out of them on different battlefields under different weather conditions.  Conversely the Russians seem to be incapable of adapting at all.


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> He looks like Eastern European Che Guevara


I'd buy his T-Shirt.


----------



## RaceAddict

rmc_wannabe said:


> My God does Zelensky look absolutely tired with everyone's shit.



From left to right: "Photo Op 😁" - "Oh FFS, another photo-op 😒" - "Photo Op 😁"


----------



## RaceAddict

Soldier35 said:


> passed a _glorious _path in the ranks of the Soviet Navy



Tell us you're Russian without telling us you're Russian.


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> A video of the Ukrainian control ship "Donbass" sunk in the port of Mariupol has been published. The former Soviet repair ship PM-9, converted into a command ship of the Ukrainian Navy project 304, was built in Poland in 1969 as a Floating workshop and passed a glorious path in the ranks of the Soviet Navy. The ship's misadventures began after the partition of the Black Sea Fleet of the USSR, when the PM-9 was transferred to the Fleet of Ukraine and renamed Krasnodon, and then in 2001 to Donbass. The ship "Donbass" ended its journey in the port of Mariupol, having burned down and sunk during the battles for the city


@Soldier35, it’s a good thing that Ukraine didn’t name it _Kyiv_, otherwise it would have sunk in deeper water…


----------



## MilEME09

Good2Golf said:


> @Soldier35, it’s a good thing that Ukraine didn’t name it _Kyiv_, otherwise it would have sunk in deeper water…


Funny thing was is that the ship was captured by Russia still afloat. Pretty easy to sink a boat you control


----------



## MilEME09

Clean up in isle 5


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518646710863552513


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> Funny thing was is that the ship was captured by Russia still afloat. Pretty easy to sink a boat you control


…or ‘let an accidental fire caused by…ummm…incompetence…roar through the ship, with minimal to no meaningful damage control’… 😉


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> Clean up in isle 5
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518646710863552513


@Soldier35, could you ask your colleague Conductor35, how such cargo in a train could just fall off like that?  Maybe RF logistics soldiers didn’t tie them down?


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Nato has been urged to provide naval escorts in the Black Sea because the war in Ukraine has rendered the country’s coastline and ports unsafe for navigation



More artificial reefs needed?


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Pipelines thru Ukraine



Three-way trade.  Russia gets money; part of Europe gets fuel; Ukraine gets weapons and money (for refraining from destroying it).


----------



## The Bread Guy

Soldier35 said:


> ... The ship's *misadventures* began ...


Great turn of phrase, @Soldier35 - you may want to suggest that to those crafting Russia's glorious #NotAWar narrative


----------



## Remius

Good2Golf said:


> @Soldier35, could you ask your colleague Conductor35, how such cargo in a train could just fall off like that?  Maybe RF logistics soldiers didn’t tie them down?


The train had a glorious past.


----------



## Furniture

Remius said:


> The train had a glorious *Soviet* past.


FTFY


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518580619655073793


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518651172906803203


----------



## Good2Golf

Jordan wants to annex Moldova? 🤔


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518651172906803203



Do you have any more on this incident?  I missed it.


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> Exactly why Ukraine needs to just hold the line for the next few weeks. Not to mention the fact we have no numbers about Ukrainian man power. I wouldn't be surprised if they had enough new recruits going through basic to add a couple new brigades to the fight soon. I'd imagine the Ukrainian counter offensive may kick up a bit once this new gear hits the field


I'm starting to wonder if we'll see a late spring counter-offensive similar in success to what the Croatians managed against the Serbs in October of 1995. A complete surprise to their enemy ending with complete victory. Both are involving massive US aid in material and knowledge transfer.


----------



## OldSolduer

MilEME09 said:


> Clean up in isle 5
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518646710863552513


I'm going to venture a guess that maybe just maybe rail yard workers who sympathize with Ukraine "forgot" to check their work.


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> Do you have any more on this incident?  I missed it.


2-3 RPGs were fired at the state security build in Transnistria


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> 2-3 RPGs were fired at the state security build in Transnistria


Thanks.


----------



## Gunnar

Kirkhill said:


> Conversely the Russians seem to be incapable of adapting at all.


Multiple generations of “do what you’re told or you will be beaten” have a tendency to do that to a culture.  The culture of the West, until recently, used to punish you for not using your head.  “What were you thinking?”, “Use your head for more than a hatrack” and other expressions used to be common over here.  Now we are gradually being told to accept inefficiencies, laziness and outright stupidity in the name of tolerance and diversity.  Well, Russia doesn’t even have a past like that under her belt.  Do as the Khan/Czar/Supreme Soviet/Czar Putin have ordered.  Obey!  You don’t need to understand.  So then you get a culture of obedient, unthinking lemmings for whom the process of taking iniative and thinking outside the box to solve problems is so utterly alien, that only a very few people can escape their cultural programming.  These few people excel in spite of everything, while every other crab in the bucket tries to pull them down.  If they succeed, they either go elsewhere, or become generals who get killed.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518691526465011717


----------



## Kirkhill

Gunnar said:


> Multiple generations of “do what you’re told or you will be beaten” have a tendency to do that to a culture.  The culture of the West, until recently, used to punish you for not using your head.  “What were you thinking?”, “Use your head for more than a hatrack” and other expressions used to be common over here.  Now we are gradually being told to accept inefficiencies, laziness and outright stupidity in the name of tolerance and diversity.  Well, Russia doesn’t even have a past like that under her belt.  Do as the Khan/Czar/Supreme Soviet/Czar Putin have ordered.  Obey!  You don’t need to understand.  So then you get a culture of obedient, unthinking lemmings for whom the process of taking iniative and thinking outside the box to solve problems is so utterly alien, that only a very few people can escape their cultural programming.  These few people excel in spite of everything, while every other crab in the bucket tries to pull them down.  If they succeed, they either go elsewhere, or become generals who get killed.




A Serb I knew taught me the expression "You tie your horse on the side of the street the Bey says".  Apparently a Bey was something like a Sheriff.


----------



## MilEME09

World: hey Ukraine what SPG system do you use?
UA: ALL OF THE GUNS


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518706079206621185


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> World: hey Ukraine what SPG system do you use?
> UA: ALL OF THE GUNS
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518706079206621185


Well the real test will be at the end of the day to see what Ukraine wants to standardize for equipment.


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> Well the real test will be at the end of the day to see what Ukraine wants to standardize for equipment.


I say what ever they pick, we buy too


----------



## The Bread Guy

And you couldn't have a false flag chemical attack narrative without mentioning these guys, right?  From RUS state media ....


----------



## MilEME09

I wish I was making this up...buy the Russian government says they are Sim cards for phones.....looks like 3 copies of the Sims 3......


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518713283288522757
Are they evening trying anymore?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518707954660397057


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> I say what ever they pick, we buy too


Better yet, maybe they can gift us some…..


----------



## Kirkhill

More speculation on Cyber Attacks and Fires.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ua9ly2


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ubmhui


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ubnsp8


----------



## Kirkhill

Smoking is hazardous to your health?


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ubqc8c/_/i65kmuc


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> Smoking is hazardous to your health?
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ubqc8c/_/i65kmuc


----------



## The Bread Guy

To give you a sense of "news" "values" of some RUS media, especially when waxing nostaligic about USSR 1.0, here's a piece out via pravda.ru


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> To give you a sense of "news" "values" of some RUS media, especially when waxing nostaligic about USSR 1.0, here's a piece out via pravda.ru
> View attachment 70345


There’s a decent movie on this guy that has Donald Sutherland in it.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518694375836028928


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518694375836028928



Sounds more like a hack?  The reverse situation of the Continental Pipeline Hack?  In the US they couldn't get the oil to flow.  In Bryansk they can't get the oil to stop.


----------



## MilEME09




----------



## suffolkowner

Putin's Ukraine Problem Keeps Getting Worse (More US Weapons are Coming)
					

U.S. Defense Secretary Austin also added that Ukraine's military can win this latest war with Russia if they are armed properly.




					www.19fortyfive.com
				




Interesting comment from Secretary Austin

“We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine,” Austin added. “It had already lost a lot of military capability and a lot of its troops, quite frankly, and we want to see them not have the capability to very quickly reproduce that capability.”

The comments by Austin are a stark and surprising thing for the secretary to say. Some of our European allies are left wondering if that means that the US wants to expand the war with Russia.


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> View attachment 70346


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> Putin's Ukraine Problem Keeps Getting Worse (More US Weapons are Coming)
> 
> 
> U.S. Defense Secretary Austin also added that Ukraine's military can win this latest war with Russia if they are armed properly.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.19fortyfive.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Interesting comment from Secretary Austin
> 
> “We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine,” Austin added. “It had already lost a lot of military capability and a lot of its troops, quite frankly, and we want to see them not have the capability to very quickly reproduce that capability.”
> 
> The comments by Austin are a stark and surprising thing for the secretary to say. Some of our European allies are left wondering if that means that the US wants to expand the war with Russia.


Expand? No but the US benefits from a weak Russia, means they can focus in China.


----------



## Skysix

The Bread Guy said:


> To give you a sense of "news" "values" of some RUS media, especially when waxing nostaligic about USSR 1.0, here's a piece out via pravda.ru
> View attachment 70345


Almost like a plot line from the Russian TV drama "The Method" from 2015






						Netflix - Watch TV Shows Online, Watch Movies Online
					

Watch Netflix movies & TV shows online or stream right to your smart TV, game console, PC, Mac, mobile, tablet and more.




					www.netflix.com


----------



## GR66

MilEME09 said:


> View attachment 70346


Another 0.2% in personnel losses and the Russian military will have been literally Decimated!


----------



## Weinie

GR66 said:


> Another 0.2% in personnel losses and the Russian military will have been literally Decimated!


Spidey sense is tingling here..............Russian losses, false flags. The ante may be going up soon.


----------



## Skysix

Weinie said:


> Spidey sense is tingling here..............Russian losses, false flags. The ante may be going up soon.


Ukranian numbers, going to be inflated, rule of thumb divide by 3.


----------



## Weinie

Skysix said:


> U
> 
> Ukranian numbers, going to be inflated, rule of thumb divide by 3.


Spidey sense reduced by divisor of three................still tingling.


----------



## MilEME09

Skysix said:


> Ukranian numbers, going to be inflated, rule of thumb divide by 3.


Even US and UK estimates have topped 15k dead, times that by 3 for wounded. Russia is hurting hard, and they went in with their best first. They have lost some of their best officers and troops already


----------



## suffolkowner

Skysix said:


> Ukranian numbers, going to be inflated, rule of thumb divide by 3.


maybe not 3 exactly. The website below has Oryx's data in a better format but Oryx lags behind  a bit due to workload






						Visual confirmed losses
					

Visual confirmed losses in Russia-Ukraine war 2022



					vizoryx.vercel.app
				




Russian BTG's are down from 160? to 80? so personnel numbers might be accurate

Aircraft losses might be high though


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> Aircraft losses might be high though


Ukraine includes missile intercepts in their aircraft count


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> View attachment 70346


I suspect these numbers are fairly accurate.  

What is more interesting when you look at the quantity of the RU highest available quality losses, instead of just their total available equipment or personnel. 

Shows you how Broke Dick Russia really is at this point in time.    I mean pretty soon they will left to being a near peer threat to Canada


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> I mean pretty soon they will left to being a near peer threat to Canada


Hey now, we maintain convening superiority over the rest of the world, including Russia 😉


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Doesn’t FE stand for Force Encouragement in the CAF?

“We really think you should send troops and equipment and encourage you to get others to send their military stuff as well…”


----------



## MilEME09

Eye In The Sky said:


> Doesn’t FE stand for Force Encouragement in the CAF?
> 
> “We really think you should send troops and equipment and encourage you to get others to send their military stuff as well…


Let's convene a meeting about it


----------



## ueo

MilEME09 said:


> Let's convene a meeting about it


Don't need no stinkin' meeting, give all our military resources away, dress all our military folks with skirts, face tats and flame red/blue hair. No more military! Justine gets all those lovely $ for his pet projects. What about the next big snow storm in Toronto or flood or fire. Hmm Security Council seat materail?


----------



## KevinB

ueo said:


> Don't need no stinkin' meeting, give all our military resources away, dress all our military folks with skirts, face tats and flame red/blue hair. No more military! Justine gets all those lovely $ for his pet projects. What about the next big snow storm in Toronto or flood or fire. Hmm Security Council seat materail?


You could even benefit from a large scale donation 










						US pledges $391 million for Euro allies to buy American to backfill weapons donations to Ukraine
					

Fifteen European allies will get nearly $400 million in new U.S. grants to buy American military hardware to backfill weapons they’ve donated to Ukraine from their own stockpiles, the State Department announced Monday.




					www.defensenews.com


----------



## KevinB

KevinB said:


> You could even benefit from a large scale donation
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> US pledges $391 million for Euro allies to buy American to backfill weapons donations to Ukraine
> 
> 
> Fifteen European allies will get nearly $400 million in new U.S. grants to buy American military hardware to backfill weapons they’ve donated to Ukraine from their own stockpiles, the State Department announced Monday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.defensenews.com


Yes it is primarily aimed at the former WP countries -- but make no mistake that we would be overjoyed to supply Canada as well.


----------



## CBH99

More of the same type of iComm chatter intercepted as the Bucha massacre.  

Reinforces the legitimacy of the intercepts, in my mind anyway.  


(Not to be so blunt as to come across rude…but wtf is wrong with some people?  As a woman, you’re okay with your husband raping another woman?  As long as he wears a condom?)


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Yes it is primarily aimed at the former WP countries -- but make no mistake that we would be overjoyed to supply Canada as well.


Pathetic - G7 country needing handouts.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Pathetic - G7 country needing handouts.


There aren't handouts - it is a strategic method to strengthen ties to America, and support Ukraine at the same time.
  View it as a Military Only Marshall Plan


----------



## KevinB

CBH99 said:


> More of the same type of iComm chatter intercepted as the Bucha massacre.
> 
> Reinforces the legitimacy of the intercepts, in my mind anyway.
> 
> 
> (Not to be so blunt as to come across rude…but wtf is wrong with some people?  As a woman, you’re okay with your husband raping another woman?  As long as he wears a condom?)


If you really want to get sickened there is a lot worse going on constantly - I listened to a few hours with a Russian translator and left wanting to burn Russia to the ground and willing to kill ever last living person in Russia...


----------



## KevinB

Interesting thread on cellular networks in the occupied areas.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518621420682682368
I'm guessing the RU and Separatist forces didn't pay attention to our work in Iraq with folks using commercial networks


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> I'm guessing the RU and Separatist forces didn't pay attention to our work in Iraq with folks using commercial networks


Most folks involved in Cyber Security, EW, and Sig Int have been scratching their heads from day one. None of this makes any sense, even from an "industry best practice" standpoint.


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> If you really want to get sickened there is a lot worse going on constantly - I listened to a few hours with a Russian translator and left wanting to burn Russia to the ground and willing to kill ever last living person in Russia...



Europe is kind of like that. It's a tradition of course.


----------



## KevinB

daftandbarmy said:


> Europe is kind of like that. It's a tradition of course.





			https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/26/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-5OUEFGPWIFH3NJPX4S6JVB5VGQ
		

By Reis Thebault4:41 a.m.
Link copied

In this satellite image, a mass gravesite can be seen outside a village near Mariupol, which Russia has been bombarding for weeks. It is the third mass gravesite discovered near the port city. (Planet Labs)
Satellite imagery has turned up more mass graves near Mariupol, the third such site discovered around the devastated port city, which Russia has besieged and shelled for weeks.
The images, captured by the American firm Planet, shows a plot of land roughly five miles outside Mariupol, in a Russian-occupied village. In it, trenches can be seen expanding over the period of a month, from March 24 to April 24. The gravesite, according to the photos, is roughly 200 feet long at the beginning of that span and tops 650 feet by the end, on Sunday.
The images, which were first reported by Radio Free Europe, add to the growing evidence of atrocities committed in the southeastern city, which Moscow has been desperate to capture since the earliest days of its invasion. The two previously discovered mass graves could together hold as many as 10,000 Mariupol residents, officials have estimated.
Mariupol’s mayor, Vadym Boychenko, told Radio Free Europe that the photographs align with Ukrainian government information indicating that Russia has used mass graves to bury civilians killed in its bombardment of the city, sometimes enlisting residents in the digging work in exchange for food.
“We know about these mass graves because these fascists — I have no other words — engage local people in the burials for food,” Boichenko said. “And the locals told us that one must have enough ‘work hours’ to get food and water. … The amount of humanitarian cargo the Russians bring here is not enough, so people have to do this”
_Archie Dolina and Paulina Firozi contributed to this report._


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/26/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-5OUEFGPWIFH3NJPX4S6JVB5VGQ
> 
> 
> By Reis Thebault4:41 a.m.
> Link copied
> 
> In this satellite image, a mass gravesite can be seen outside a village near Mariupol, which Russia has been bombarding for weeks. It is the third mass gravesite discovered near the port city. (Planet Labs)
> Satellite imagery has turned up more mass graves near Mariupol, the third such site discovered around the devastated port city, which Russia has besieged and shelled for weeks.
> The images, captured by the American firm Planet, shows a plot of land roughly five miles outside Mariupol, in a Russian-occupied village. In it, trenches can be seen expanding over the period of a month, from March 24 to April 24. The gravesite, according to the photos, is roughly 200 feet long at the beginning of that span and tops 650 feet by the end, on Sunday.
> The images, which were first reported by Radio Free Europe, add to the growing evidence of atrocities committed in the southeastern city, which Moscow has been desperate to capture since the earliest days of its invasion. The two previously discovered mass graves could together hold as many as 10,000 Mariupol residents, officials have estimated.
> Mariupol’s mayor, Vadym Boychenko, told Radio Free Europe that the photographs align with Ukrainian government information indicating that Russia has used mass graves to bury civilians killed in its bombardment of the city, sometimes enlisting residents in the digging work in exchange for food.
> “We know about these mass graves because these fascists — I have no other words — engage local people in the burials for food,” Boichenko said. “And the locals told us that one must have enough ‘work hours’ to get food and water. … The amount of humanitarian cargo the Russians bring here is not enough, so people have to do this”
> _Archie Dolina and Paulina Firozi contributed to this report._



And that's just the location getting the most attention right now...


----------



## MilEME09

Hopefully this was fruitful


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518947159856590850


----------



## KevinB

https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/04/26/russian-forces-intensified-activities-in-the-east-resumed-attacks-against-azovstal-plant/


----------



## McG

Germany is donating Geopard. If Canada still has any Leopard 1 ARV that are not demilitarized or if we still have any common Leopard 1 chassis parts in depot, then we can sweeten the donation.


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518956153321009154


----------



## dangerboy

MilEME09 said:


> Hopefully this was fruitful
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518947159856590850


Wonder if anyone from Canada was there? Can't tell from the picture.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> I wish I was making this up...buy the Russian government says they are Sim cards for phones.....looks like 3 copies of the Sims 3......



Save this little gem in your mind for the next claim that Russian propaganda is interfering effectively with our elections.


----------



## Good2Golf

dangerboy said:


> Wonder if anyone from Canada was there? Can't tell from the picture.


…well, someone had to convene the meeting, right?


----------



## KevinB

dangerboy said:


> Wonder if anyone from Canada was there? Can't tell from the picture.


The guy trying to sneak out on the back right before he's asked for stuff...


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Good2Golf said:


> …well, someone had to convene the meeting, right?


We are serving the coffee


----------



## daftandbarmy

Colin Parkinson said:


> We are serving the (fair trade, low carbon footprint, decaf) coffee



There, FTFY


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518997492192456704


----------



## Brad Sallows

Good thing someone just happened to have a camera on that.


----------



## KevinB

Brad Sallows said:


> Good thing someone just happened to have a camera on that.


I'm guessing when Anonymous happened to hack the plant - they figured they would get some footage off the CCTV too..


----------



## Kirkhill

I wonder if somebody has Anonymously hacked the Russian Nuclear launch system?
Dud fuses.  Dud explosives.  Dud fuels.  Lack of replacements.  Dead scientists...... hacked command system? 
I wonder how much confidence Vlad's people have that if they pressed the button they would accomplish anything other than pissing off people whose weapons actually work.


----------



## OldSolduer

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518997492192456704


OK its a cool video and all but exactly what happened? I saw a great deal of steam. What is the significance?


----------



## Weinie

Kirkhill said:


> I wonder if somebody has Anonymously hacked the Russian Nuclear launch system?
> Dud fuses.  Dud explosives.  Dud fuels.  Lack of replacements.  Dead scientists...... hacked command system?
> *I wonder how much confidence Vlad's people have that if they pressed the button they would accomplish anything other than pissing off people whose weapons actually work.*


I would prefer not to gamble on working vs duds.


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518997492192456704


In Russia, Steam Plant VENTS you!!!


----------



## Good2Golf

OldSolduer said:


> OK its a cool video and all but exactly what happened? I saw a great deal of steam. What is the significance?


It wasn’t all through the stack (controlled) but emerging as well from the building around the stack…some folks may have not fared well there…


----------



## OldSolduer

Good2Golf said:


> It wasn’t all through the stack (controlled) but emerging as well from the building around the stack…some folks may have not fared well there…


that ain't good but it did happen in Russia so......


----------



## KevinB

OldSolduer said:


> OK its a cool video and all but exactly what happened? I saw a great deal of steam. What is the significance?


Do you like Lobster?


----------



## Kirkhill

Good2Golf said:


> It wasn’t all through the stack (controlled) but emerging as well from the building around the stack…some folks may have not fared well there…


Nor the equipment that released all that steam instantaneously.   BLEVE.  Boiling Liquid Expanding Volume Explosion.


----------



## OldSolduer

KevinB said:


> Do you like Lobster?


Yup. I get it. That ain't a good thing for those inside.....


----------



## OldSolduer

Kirkhill said:


> Nor the equipment that released all that steam instantaneously.   BLEVE.  Boiling Liquid Expanding Volume Explosion.


OUCCCH that sounds very hurtful.....


----------



## KevinB

Ukraine war to cause biggest price shock in 50 years - World Bank
					

Ukraine is pushing up prices of commodities including food, cotton and energy, the World Bank says.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519028658001924099


----------



## KevinB

Well I am sure this was part of Putin's master plan too








						Nato expansion: No set date for Finland application - minister
					

Comments come as local media reported that Sweden and Finland could bid for membership next month.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

dangerboy said:


> Wonder if anyone from Canada was there? Can't tell from the picture.


Yup ...








						Canadian defense minister to visit Germany, U.S. to discuss support for Ukraine
					

Canadian Defence Minister Anita Anand will travel to Germany and the United States this week to discuss support for Ukraine against Russia's invasion, the Canadian government said on Monday.




					www.reuters.com
				



... even though either Stars & Stripes or the Minister got something wrong here


> ... Also on Tuesday, Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand told reporters at Ramstein that Canada plans to give Ukraine *M777 armored vehicles*. Austin later said Ukraine would receive eight of them ...


----------



## Underway

Kirkhill said:


> I wonder if somebody has Anonymously hacked the Russian Nuclear launch system?
> Dud fuses.  Dud explosives.  Dud fuels.  Lack of replacements.  Dead scientists...... hacked command system?
> I wonder how much confidence Vlad's people have that if they pressed the button they would accomplish anything other than pissing off people whose weapons actually work.


Won't do anything for their tactical arsenal.  A nuke 152mm artillery shell looks exactly the same as a conventional 152mm artillery shell for the most part.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> I would prefer not to gamble on working vs duds.



So would they.  Very embarrassing if they launch one to make a point and it fails.  Even worse if they launch 5 and 1 or more fail, revealing (potentially) a percentage.


----------



## Skysix

OldSolduer said:


> OK its a cool video and all but exactly what happened? I saw a great deal of steam. What is the significance?


Looked like some orange at the top of the stack in the middle of the steam. Computer uncontrolled natural gas fired boiler explosion and mechanical failsafe gas shutoff?


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

KevinB said:


> Ukraine war to cause biggest price shock in 50 years - World Bank
> 
> 
> Ukraine is pushing up prices of commodities including food, cotton and energy, the World Bank says.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com


But the Banks will say "nothing to see here" it's just transitory 🤣


----------



## Kirkhill

Russia continues to burn. *A tank farm in Bryansk*; 🔥 military base in Bryansk; 🔥 *meat processing plant in Bryansk*; 🔥 "Agropromkomplekt" in Bryansk; 🔥 house in St. Petersburg; 🔥 air base in Ussuriysk; 🔥 police stations in Moscow, Irkutsk and Novosibirsk; 🔥 shopping center in the suburbs.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uc4vnj









						Colonial Pipeline hack explained: Everything you need to know
					

Learn how and why a ransomware attack forced a major U.S. gas pipeline to temporarily shut down operations.




					www.techtarget.com
				












						Cyberattack hits world’s largest meat supplier
					

It might be days before production resumes after an “organized cybersecurity attack” affected IT systems in North America and Australia, officials said.




					www.nbcnews.com
				




This is payback....   

Pipelines and Hamburgers....

Not to mention governor's mansions, power plants, missile engineers, rocket fuel plants and commercial fuel storage depots in Moscow.









						Anonymous declared a 'cyber war' against Russia. Here are the results
					

Over three weeks ago, a Twitter account named "Anonymous" declared it was waging a "cyber war" against Russia. CNBC takes a look at its claims.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Soldier35 said:


> ... The units of the Russian Armed Forces took control of a large base for the storage and repair of equipment left by the Ukrainian army. A large amount of Ukrainian military equipment was captured, about 100 units in total ...


Manage to get much of your own equipment back?


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ucb4xv


----------



## Kirkhill

Take it for what its worth.

Don't put it on speakers in the office.  Use headphones.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ucgms7


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519045784150368257


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519031948747976704


----------



## KevinB

German doing quite the 180 today 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519030859650805763


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> Russian troops launched a missile attack on the railway bridge in Zatoka, Odessa region. As a result of the missile strike, the bridge from Zatoka towards Belgorod-Dnestrovsky was closed. The bridge was used to supply fuel from Moldova to the Ukrainian army. Also, *the last remaining* warship*s* of the Russian Navy launched a series of strikes on targets on the coast of the Odessa region.



@Soldier35, you can thank me later, but I fixed your post for you, given that the _Up To Recently Glorious *Moskva*_ is now sleeping with the fishes. 👍🏼


----------



## Mills Bomb

KevinB said:


> German doing quite the 180 today
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519030859650805763


I bet the Russians haven't been this excited about a train full of German panzers heading East since 1941.


----------



## KevinB

You know your doing well when you need to bring in the C team who didn't make the original cut...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519048557336186881


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Mills Bomb said:


> I bet the Russians haven't seen a train full of German panzers heading East like this since 1941.


"Blyat! Oh no.... ALEXI! Get the PTRD! It's happening again..."


----------



## KevinB

Mills Bomb said:


> I bet the Russians haven't been so excited about a train full of German panzers heading East since 1941.


I think those where just the exclamation point on the Fuck You letter they sent Putin about oil and gas...
   Watching Germany since this happened - they cranked up Defense Spending to flank speed - and having been quietly looking at ways to get off Russia's tit on the energy sector, now that they seem to have worked a deal with Poland and other Western nations, they will be ruthlessly efficient as Germans can be in dealing with an enemy.


----------



## McG

KevinB said:


> You know your doing well when you need to bring in the C team who didn't make the original cut...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519048557336186881


So when to we give tanks and Artillery to Moldova? Do we need to wait for Russian H hr, or can they be readied before that?


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR arms plant spots, deals with some dickers ...








						Two fire spotters detained at Ukroboronprom's armored enterprises
					






					ukroboronprom.com.ua


----------



## WLSC

McG said:


> So when to we give tanks and Artillery to Moldova? Do we need to wait for Russian H hr, or can they be readied before that?


I don't think the Moldovan Army is at the same place the the Ukrainian Army.  They have a lots of catch up to do.  We should however speed up the catch up and fill their basic need.


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> I think those where just the exclamation point on the Fuck You letter they sent Putin about oil and gas...
> Watching Germany since this happened - they cranked up Defense Spending to flank speed - and having been quietly looking at ways to get off Russia's tit on the energy sector, now that they seem to have worked a deal with Poland and other Western nations, they will be ruthlessly efficient as Germans can be in dealing with an enemy.



Busy correcting the huge strategic mistakes made by that idiot Merkel:

Germany releases €3bn to acquire floating LNG terminals​
Germany has released nearly €3 billion to acquire floating liquefied natural gas import terminals, the finance ministry said Friday (15 April), as it seeks to move away from dependence on Russian gas.

“Dependence on Russian energy imports must be reduced quickly and sustainably,” tweeted Finance Minister Christian Lindner.

“Floating LNG terminals make an important contribution to this, for which we must provide funding,” he added.

A total of €2.94 billion has been made available for the lease of these huge LNG carriers, the finance ministry told AFP.

Europe, and Germany in particular, is counting on LNG to reduce its dependence on Russian imports after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.









						Germany releases €3bn to acquire floating LNG terminals
					

Germany has released nearly €3 billion to acquire floating liquefied natural gas import terminals, the finance ministry said Friday (15 April), as it seeks to move away from dependence on Russian gas.




					www.euractiv.com


----------



## rmc_wannabe

WLSC said:


> I don't the Moldovan Army is at the same place the the Ukrainian Army.  They have a lots of catch up to do.  We should however speed up the catch up and fill their basic need.


Or have Romania offer to invite them into a confederation. That would put them under NATO protection, and piss off Vlad the Impotent in the process.


----------



## The Bread Guy

#BelieveItWhenISeeIt








						Putin agrees ‘in principle’ to UN role in Mariupol evacuations
					

UN says Russian president agreed ‘in principle’ to UN involvement in evacuations of civlians from Azovstal steel plant.




					www.aljazeera.com
				



This from the U.N. SecGen info-machine


> The Secretary-General met with the President of the Russian Federation, H.E. Mr. Vladimir Putin, in Moscow this afternoon.
> 
> During the tête-a-tête meeting, the Secretary-General reiterated the United Nations’ position on Ukraine, and they discussed the proposals for humanitarian assistance and evacuation of civilians from conflict zones, namely in relation to the situation in Mariupol.
> 
> The President agreed, in principle, to the involvement of the United Nations and the International Committee for the Red Cross in the evacuation of civilians from the Azovstal plant in Mariupol.
> 
> Follow-on discussions will be had with the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and the Russian Defence Ministry.


We'll see ...


----------



## MilEME09

McG said:


> So when to we give tanks and Artillery to Moldova? Do we need to wait for Russian H hr, or can they be readied before that?


Ukraine also has 4 brigades near that border, all too happy to go in I bet.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519093734209736706


----------



## The Bread Guy

Campaign's never really done until the gong is done (via Donetsk rebel media) ....








						DPR Head institutes medal “For Liberation of Mariupol”
					

Donetsk, Apr 26 - DAN. Donetsk People’s Republic Head Denis Pushilin has signed Decree No 155 on Tuesday instituting the medal “For Liberation of




					dan-news.info


----------



## rmc_wannabe

The Bread Guy said:


> Campaign's never really done until the gong is done (via Donetsk rebel media) ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> DPR Head institutes medal “For Liberation of Mariupol”
> 
> 
> Donetsk, Apr 26 - DAN. Donetsk People’s Republic Head Denis Pushilin has signed Decree No 155 on Tuesday instituting the medal “For Liberation of
> 
> 
> 
> 
> dan-news.info
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 70368


I can't wait to see this popping up at a Parade near me on the 11th of November


----------



## The Bread Guy

The Bread Guy said:


> ... even though either Stars & Stripes or the Minister got something wrong here
> "... Also on Tuesday, Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand told reporters at Ramstein that Canada plans to give Ukraine *M777 armored vehicles*. Austin later said Ukraine would receive eight of them ..."


A little more clarity from Mme. Minister's Twitter feed

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518992953515069442


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> A little more clarity from Mme. Minister's Twitter feed
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518992953515069442


Really? Only 8? I think they need about 80- 800


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519021325389602817


----------



## McG

MilEME09 said:


> Really? Only 8? I think they need about 80- 800


It’s an armoured police vehicle. Not what Ukraine needs in those quantities.


----------



## MilEME09

Opportunity for Canada? If we were smart 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519106644520718336


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> Opportunity for Canada? If we were smart
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519106644520718336



I love the energy sector. There is no problem that they can't figure out how to overcome process wise


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> Opportunity for Canada? If we were smart
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519106644520718336


Only if Poland promises to be 40% Net Zero by 2030…. 

🙄


----------



## McG

“Our armies are destroying Ukraine’s cities and murdering Ukrainian civilians, but our military facilities at home & the domestic infrastructure that sustains our war machine is not a legitimate target. We will punish any nation that thinks differently.”

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519101301753270272No hypocrisy there.


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519093734209736706


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Opportunity for Canada? If we were smart



One Canada should have been ready to capitalize on, but bungled.


----------



## MilEME09

Brad Sallows said:


> One Canada should have been ready to capitalize on, but bungled.


It require us to tell the provinces to be quiet, build energy east, and start shipping to Europe. Which strategically benefits us and Europe. Our O&G is cheaper on the world market right now for Europe but once on the world market it will increase, generating more tax revenue for canada


----------



## Good2Golf

Brad Sallows said:


> One Canada should have been ready to capitalize on, but bungled.


Less ‘bungled’ and more ‘deliberately chose to put its virtuous uber-green agenda before assisting Europe deal with Putin’s evil…’


----------



## Brad Sallows

Yes; unfortunately, there's no international security crisis bypass card that can be played just because someone believes in Climate Crises.


----------



## The Bread Guy

McG said:


> “Our armies are destroying Ukraine’s cities and murdering Ukrainian civilians, but our military facilities at home & the domestic infrastructure that sustains our war machine is not a legitimate target. We will punish any nation that thinks differently.”
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519101301753270272No hypocrisy there.


Pravda puts it even more bluntly ....



MilEME09 said:


> Really? Only 8? I think they need about 80- 800


While something is generally better than nothing, when it comes in dribs and drabs like this, maybe Canada should be focusing its effort on some non-military help they can put some significant momentum behind.  As others upthread have said, food aid, "adopt a city" to rebuild, maybe get stuck into the war crimes investigating ...


----------



## daftandbarmy

The Bread Guy said:


> Pravda puts it even more bluntly ....
> View attachment 70370
> 
> While something is generally better than nothing, when it comes in dribs and drabs like this, maybe Canada should be focusing its effort on some non-military help they can put some significant momentum behind.  As others upthread have said, food aid, "adopt a city" to rebuild, maybe get stuck into the war crimes investigating ...



If Russia strikes the UK, we'd better have our boots done up, rifles cleaned and NOK forms filled out ...


----------



## Haggis

daftandbarmy said:


> I love the energy sector. There is no problem that they can't figure out how to overcome process wise


Is our energy sector even remotely capable of producing oil and gas for export to Europe?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Haggis said:


> Is our energy sector even remotely capable of producing oil and gas for export to Europe?



Short answer: yes.

Less short answer: we suck at getting it to tidewater. Our main customer is the USA, which is easy for us to serve overland, so we need to develop our offshore export muscles.

Canadian energy won’t save Europe from Russia​"Yet here, too, Canada is hampered by a limit of export capacity. Despite the country’s high rank in global production of natural gas, Canada still has basically no facilities capable of shipping it overseas — the sort of thing the country is really going to need to get cracking on if it ever hopes to offset the 155 billion cubic meters of natural gas the Russians piped to Europe in 2021."



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/21/canadian-energy-wont-save-europe-russia/


----------



## MilEME09

daftandbarmy said:


> If Russia strikes the UK, we'd better have our boots done up, rifles cleaned and NOK forms filled out ...


It would be on like donkey Kong, knowing my like it would happen too. Don't get me wrong, Russia needs to be stopped, I also feel Allied air power would win this for us within 96 hours before our ground forces reach the Ukrainian front.


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> It would be on like donkey Kong, knowing my like it would happen too. Don't get me wrong, Russia needs to be stopped, I also feel Allied air power would win this for us within 96 hours before our ground forces reach the Ukrainian front.



As I recall, 40 years ago this week, that's kind of what everyone in Britain thought would happen during the Falklands War too.


----------



## KevinB

daftandbarmy said:


> As I recall, 40 years ago this week, that's kind of what everyone in Britain thought would happen during the Falklands War too.


Shut up "Tommy" no one needs you right now...


----------



## MilEME09

daftandbarmy said:


> As I recall, 40 years ago this week, that's kind of what everyone in Britain thought would happen during the Falklands War too.


Fair point,

But the west has a much better ability to destroy Russian anti air and C2 by air then Ukraine does. We are entering the time when the ground is hardening up in Ukraine. Benefiting armour criss country. Air power would counter that hard.


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Pravda puts it even more bluntly ....
> View attachment 70370


Let me pull up the grid for her...
   She can eat the first Tomahawk sent into Russia as a response.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Fair point,
> 
> But the west has a much better ability to destroy Russian anti air and C2 by air then Ukraine does. We are entering the time when the ground is hardening up in Ukraine. Benefiting armour criss country. Air power would counter that hard.


Dude if Russia strikes a NATO country with missiles - we aren't going to be talking about the Ukraine -- we are going to be putting ordnance into St Petersburg and Moscow...


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> Dude if Russia strikes a NATO country with missiles - we aren't going to be talking about the Ukraine -- we are going to be putting ordnance into St Petersburg and Moscow...


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> Really? Only 8? I think they need about 80- 800


Australia announced that they are giving 6 M777’s.  I almost feel that they gave 2 more than us just to make us look even shitter than we already do.


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> Opportunity for Canada? If we were smart
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519106644520718336


Are those old KAR98’s?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Forewarned = forearmed, indeed....

U.S. intel helped Ukraine protect air defenses, shoot down Russian plane carrying hundreds of troops​Ukrainian forces have used specific coordinates shared by the U.S. to direct fire on Russian positions and aircraft, current and former officials tell NBC News.

 As Russia launched its invasion, the U.S. gave Ukrainian forces detailed intelligence about exactly when and where Russian missiles and bombs were intended to strike, prompting Ukraine to move air defenses and aircraft out of harm’s way, current and former U.S. officials told NBC News. 

That near real-time intelligence-sharing also paved the way for Ukraine to shoot down a Russian transport plane carrying hundreds of troops in the early days of the war, the officials say, helping repel a Russian assault on a key airport near Kyiv.

It was part of what American officials call a massive and unprecedented intelligence-sharing operation with a non-NATO partner that they say has played a crucial role in Ukraine’s success to date against the larger and better-equipped Russian military.

The details about the air defenses and the transport plane, which have not previously been reported, underscore why, two months into the war, officials assess that intelligence from U.S. spy agencies and the Pentagon has been an important factor in helping Ukraine thwart Russia’s effort to seize most of the country.

U.S. intel helped Ukraine shoot down Russian plane carrying troops


----------



## WLSC

Czech_pivo said:


> Are those old KAR98’s?


Yes.  They made sure they were denazified by removing the svastika on them.


----------



## YZT580

KevinB said:


> German doing quite the 180 today
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519030859650805763


more there on one train than we can send


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> Australia announced that they are giving 6 M777’s.  I almost feel that they gave 2 more than us just to make us look even shitter than we already do.


It also made the donation an even 100 from all parties.

In other news

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519134072953618433


----------



## FJAG

Czech_pivo said:


> Are those old KAR98’s?


Yes they are. The Bundeswehr Wachbataillon uses the KAR98k as its parade rifle. They've all been de-Nazified by having the swastika ground off the breech.

Edited to add: Sorry @WLSC - didn't see your post before I posted.

🍻


----------



## FJAG

YZT580 said:


> more there on one train than we can send


Not sure what this represents other than a move of equipment but all that Germany has committed is anti-aircraft Gepards which have been in storage for the last 12 years. To the best of my knowledge Germany has not committed any tanks or other offensive weapon systems to Ukraine.

🍻


----------



## QV

The Bread Guy said:


> Pravda puts it even more bluntly ....
> View attachment 70370
> 
> While something is generally better than nothing, when it comes in dribs and drabs like this, maybe Canada should be focusing its effort on some non-military help they can put some significant momentum behind.  As others upthread have said, food aid, "adopt a city" to rebuild, maybe get stuck into the war crimes investigating ...


Canada should unshackle the private O&G sector. Mission: make Canada a global supplier of ethical O&G. Then the grown ups can supply the military power, that we can’t/won’t.  But no, we’re going to send eight (probably jun) armoured cars. The Ukr probably lost eight of them before noon today… such an unserious nation.


----------



## daftandbarmy

QV said:


> Canada should unshackle the private O&G sector. Mission: make Canada a global supplier of ethical O&G. Then the grown ups can supply the military power, that we can’t/won’t.  But no, we’re going to send eight (probably jun) armoured cars. The Ukr probably lost eight of them before noon today… such an unserious nation.



Because we don't execute people in public based on spurious evidence, and stuff like that, our oil and gas is already 'ethical' IMHO....


----------



## QV

daftandbarmy said:


> Because we don't execute people in public based on spurious evidence, and stuff like that, our oil and gas is already 'ethical' IMHO....


What are you talking about?


----------



## Brad Sallows

"Ethical" O&G is the cheapest O&G, which gives the poorest people a shot at improving their lives by consuming energy.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Haggis said:


> Is our energy sector even remotely capable of producing oil and gas for export to Europe?


Like @daftandbarmy  said:






						Canadian-owned Irving Oil announces successful acquisition of Irish company Top Oil | Irving Oil
					






					www.irvingoil.com
				












						Canaport - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org
				




All the building blocks are there.  What is lacking are two things:

1.  Vision
2.  Will

We are in short supply of both qualities unfortunately.


----------



## Remius

Rand Paul echoes Putin's talking points on Ukraine while arguing with Blinken over Russia's motives for invading
					

Though Paul said there was no justifying Russia's invasion, he also parroted Putin's rhetoric about NATO and Ukraine's history.




					www.businessinsider.com
				




Ah Rand Paul…


----------



## WLSC

Remius said:


> Rand Paul echoes Putin's talking points on Ukraine while arguing with Blinken over Russia's motives for invading
> 
> 
> Though Paul said there was no justifying Russia's invasion, he also parroted Putin's rhetoric about NATO and Ukraine's history.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.businessinsider.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ah Rand Paul…


How good Putin organisation is good in PSYOPS?  You have your answer there.


----------



## The Bread Guy

WLSC said:


> How good Putin organisation is good in PSYOPS?  You have your answer there.


Don't worry, though - RUS propaganda's not going to fool anyone or change anyone's mind, right?    

Meanwhile, if this is what RUS media IS talking about, wonder how much may be happening we don't hear about?

_*“Explosions rock several Russian regions bordering Ukraine” (RUS independent media)*_
_*“Russian Ammo Dump Near Ukraine Set Alight, 2 Border Regions Report Blasts” (RUS independent media)*_
_*“A series of explosions have rocked an ammunition depot south of the Russian city of Belgorod, close to the Ukrainian border, a day after several villages in the same region came under attacks which have been blamed on Kiev’s forces. The first powerful blasts were heard across the region around 3:30am local time, with some reports claiming air defenses had been activated …” (RUS state media)*_
_*“Russia’s FSB says ‘two sympathisers of Ukrainian Nazism’ detained in Belgorod” (RUS independent media)*_
_*“Two sympathizers of Ukrainian Nazism held in Belgorod for transportation attack plot — FSB” (RUS state media)*_
_*“Two loud bangs heard in Central Russia’s Voronezh – rescuers” (RUS state media)*_
_*“Air defense system destroys surveillance drone above Voronezh — governor” (RUS state media)*_
_*“Ammo depot on fire in Belgorod Region – governor” (RUS state media)*_
_*“Russian investigators to request info about Ukrainian military planting bombs in Nikolayev” (RUS state media)*_
_*“Open fire at western Russian ammo depot extinguished – governor” (RUS state media)*_


----------



## WLSC

The Bread Guy said:


> Don't worry, though - RUS propaganda's not going to fool anyone or change anyone's mind, right?
> 
> Meanwhile, if this is what RUS media IS talking about, wonder how much may be happening we don't hear about?
> 
> _*“Explosions rock several Russian regions bordering Ukraine” (RUS independent media)*_
> _*“Russian Ammo Dump Near Ukraine Set Alight, 2 Border Regions Report Blasts” (RUS independent media)*_
> _*“A series of explosions have rocked an ammunition depot south of the Russian city of Belgorod, close to the Ukrainian border, a day after several villages in the same region came under attacks which have been blamed on Kiev’s forces. The first powerful blasts were heard across the region around 3:30am local time, with some reports claiming air defenses had been activated …” (RUS state media)*_
> _*“Russia’s FSB says ‘two sympathisers of Ukrainian Nazism’ detained in Belgorod” (RUS independent media)*_
> _*“Two sympathizers of Ukrainian Nazism held in Belgorod for transportation attack plot — FSB” (RUS state media)*_
> _*“Two loud bangs heard in Central Russia’s Voronezh – rescuers” (RUS state media)*_
> _*“Air defense system destroys surveillance drone above Voronezh — governor” (RUS state media)*_
> _*“Ammo depot on fire in Belgorod Region – governor” (RUS state media)*_
> _*“Russian investigators to request info about Ukrainian military planting bombs in Nikolayev” (RUS state media)*_
> _*“Open fire at western Russian ammo depot extinguished – governor” (RUS state media)*_


Current propaganda, could be better, we should ask @Soldier35 🤣  I’m really looking forward to see those stories unfolds.

He manage however to get thru the different social fracture and expand them to canyon status 😕


----------



## KevinB

WLSC said:


> How good Putin organisation is good in PSYOPS?  You have your answer there.


TBH Rand Paul has been an assclown forever.  He and his Ilk are the reason I don’t donate to the Republican Party anymore.
   I wouldn’t piss on them if they where on fire, other than a part that wasn’t burning…

@Soldier35 
Слава Украина
Смерть Путину


----------



## Remius

Russia halts gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria
					

Russia halted gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland on Wednesday for rejecting its demand to pay in roubles, taking direct aim at European economies in its toughest retaliation so far against international sanctions over the war in Ukraine.




					www.reuters.com
				




And now for today’s escalation in the conflict.


----------



## WLSC

KevinB said:


> TBH Rand Paul has been an assclown forever.  He and his Ilk are the reason I don’t donate to the Republican Party anymore.
> I wouldn’t piss on them if they where on fire, other than a part that wasn’t burning…
> 
> @Soldier35
> Слава Украина
> Смерть Путину


Yeah, I know.  He's a very good target audience and he make sure the fracture stays a canyon.


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Don't worry, though - RUS propaganda's not going to fool anyone or change anyone's mind, right?
> 
> Meanwhile, if this is what RUS media IS talking about, wonder how much may be happening we don't hear about?
> 
> _*“Explosions rock several Russian regions bordering Ukraine” (RUS independent media)*_
> _*“Russian Ammo Dump Near Ukraine Set Alight, 2 Border Regions Report Blasts” (RUS independent media)*_
> _*“A series of explosions have rocked an ammunition depot south of the Russian city of Belgorod, close to the Ukrainian border, a day after several villages in the same region came under attacks which have been blamed on Kiev’s forces. The first powerful blasts were heard across the region around 3:30am local time, with some reports claiming air defenses had been activated …” (RUS state media)*_
> _*“Russia’s FSB says ‘two sympathisers of Ukrainian Nazism’ detained in Belgorod” (RUS independent media)*_
> _*“Two sympathizers of Ukrainian Nazism held in Belgorod for transportation attack plot — FSB” (RUS state media)*_
> _*“Two loud bangs heard in Central Russia’s Voronezh – rescuers” (RUS state media)*_
> _*“Air defense system destroys surveillance drone above Voronezh — governor” (RUS state media)*_
> _*“Ammo depot on fire in Belgorod Region – governor” (RUS state media)*_
> _*“Russian investigators to request info about Ukrainian military planting bombs in Nikolayev” (RUS state media)*_
> _*“Open fire at western Russian ammo depot extinguished – governor” (RUS state media)*_


Nothing to see Camrade, move along! It's all going according to plan.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> Nothing to see Camrade, move along! It's all going according to plan.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518493514333569024


----------



## AlexanderM

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519248822496645122


----------



## Underway

KevinB said:


> German doing quite the 180 today
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519030859650805763


Everyone forgets Germany is by far the most efficient country in Europe because of the last 20 years of slow and steady.

Germany survives surrounded by enemies and competitors by being just _better_ than everyone else.  They have more universities, they work harder, and they are more organized. When they decide to move they friggin move hard and fast.  In less than two years they will be completely off Russian natural gas completely, perhaps even sooner.

Love this line function to separate thoughts.

Canadian Oil and Gas Exports.  Germany doesn't want our oil.  They can't process it into a usable form for their infrastructure as it's too heavy. Germany needs natural gas.  Canada doesn't really export natural gas in liquified form right now because we are integrated into the US natural gas infrastructure out west and in Ontario (from Lake Erie wells).

An LNG terminal is a multi-year process to build as its complicated engineering (high pressures, very low temps) to make and ship it in liquid form.  Until this crisis, there was no impetus economically for such a huge investment one on the East Coast. Not to mention pipelines to get it there in the first place, gas is harder to pipe than liquid. Shipping natural gas across an ocean is very expensive and was never competitive with Russian and North Sea gas.

West Coast LNG is a different market/situation so we'll leave that aside for now.
If we want to help Germany in the energy sector then we need to ship coal and coal replacement.  They use lignite which is the absolute worst form of coal to burn, less energy efficient than even wood.  A coal replacement or better quality coal would actually increase the energy efficiency of their coal fire plants and help them get more power out of them.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MOAR sanctions ....


> ... These new measures impose restrictions on 11 senior officials and 192 other members of the People’s Councils of the so-called Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics who are complicit in the Russian regime’s ongoing violations of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
> 
> The Russian regime’s attempted annexation of certain areas of Donbass is a blatant violation of international law. Today’s measures apply further pressure on President Putin and those complicit in the horrific events occurring in Ukraine ...


----------



## ueo

Good2Golf said:


> Only if Poland promises to be 40% Net Zero by 2030….
> 
> 🙄


So unfortunately close to reality! Jesus wept!


----------



## ueo

Underway said:


> Everyone forgets Germany is by far the most efficient country in Europe because of the last 20 years of slow and steady.
> 
> Germany survives surrounded by enemies and competitors by being just _better_ than everyone else.  They have more universities, they work harder, and they are more organized. When they decide to move they friggin move hard and fast.  In less than two years they will be completely off Russian natural gas completely, perhaps even sooner.
> 
> Love this line function to separate thoughts.
> 
> Canadian Oil and Gas Exports.  Germany doesn't want our oil.  They can't process it into a usable form for their infrastructure as it's too heavy. Germany needs natural gas.  Canada doesn't really export natural gas in liquified form right now because we are integrated into the US natural gas infrastructure out west and in Ontario (from Lake Erie wells).
> 
> An LNG terminal is a multi-year process to build as its complicated engineering (high pressures, very low temps) to make and ship it in liquid form.  Until this crisis, there was no impetus economically for such a huge investment one on the East Coast. Not to mention pipelines to get it there in the first place, gas is harder to pipe than liquid. Shipping natural gas across an ocean is very expensive and was never competitive with Russian and North Sea gas.
> 
> West Coast LNG is a different market/situation so we'll leave that aside for now.
> If we want to help Germany in the energy sector then we need to ship coal and coal replacement.  They use lignite which is the absolute worst form of coal to burn, less energy efficient than even wood.  A coal replacement or better quality coal would actually increase the energy efficiency of their coal fire plants and help them get more power out of them.


Reopen Cape Breton mines ASAP.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519290213926899713


----------



## McG

Now he is threatening himself.


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> Don't worry, though - RUS propaganda's not going to fool anyone or change anyone's mind, right?
> 
> Meanwhile, if this is what RUS media IS talking about, wonder how much may be happening we don't hear about?
> 
> _*“Explosions rock several Russian regions bordering Ukraine” (RUS independent media)*_
> _*“Russian Ammo Dump Near Ukraine Set Alight, 2 Border Regions Report Blasts” (RUS independent media)*_
> _*“A series of explosions have rocked an ammunition depot south of the Russian city of Belgorod, close to the Ukrainian border, a day after several villages in the same region came under attacks which have been blamed on Kiev’s forces. The first powerful blasts were heard across the region around 3:30am local time, with some reports claiming air defenses had been activated …” (RUS state media)*_
> _*“Russia’s FSB says ‘two sympathisers of Ukrainian Nazism’ detained in Belgorod” (RUS independent media)*_
> _*“Two sympathizers of Ukrainian Nazism held in Belgorod for transportation attack plot — FSB” (RUS state media)*_
> _*“Two loud bangs heard in Central Russia’s Voronezh – rescuers” (RUS state media)*_
> _*“Air defense system destroys surveillance drone above Voronezh — governor” (RUS state media)*_
> _*“Ammo depot on fire in Belgorod Region – governor” (RUS state media)*_
> _*“Russian investigators to request info about Ukrainian military planting bombs in Nikolayev” (RUS state media)*_
> _*“Open fire at western Russian ammo depot extinguished – governor” (RUS state media)*_



I saw an article the other day pointing out that Russian Propaganda isn't aimed at the West.  It is aimed at the domestic market and the Anti-West.  It is likely more successful in those markets.


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Like @daftandbarmy  said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canadian-owned Irving Oil announces successful acquisition of Irish company Top Oil | Irving Oil
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.irvingoil.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canaport - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.m.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> All the building blocks are there.  What is lacking are two things:
> 
> 1.  Vision
> 2.  Will
> 
> We are in short supply of both qualities unfortunately.



No.  We have a Vision that we are following.
Unfortunately it is Angela Merkel's Vision.


----------



## Remius

McG said:


> Now he is threatening himself.
> 
> View attachment 70376


So soldier35, you need to stop bragging about stuff according to this.   But I’m sure you got the memo.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:


> I saw an article the other day pointing out that Russian Propaganda isn't aimed at the West.  It is aimed at the domestic market and the Anti-West.  It is likely more successful in those markets.


Maybe, but if it's not aimed at English-reading audiences, why go to the trouble of translating it?   For sure, more of the meaty stuff is in the Russian-language areas, but the English targeting isn't completely down to zero.

Meanwhile, when they came for the marmots, nobody was left (via RUS state media) ....








						Ukrainian Soldier Reveals He Had to Eat Marmots to Make it Out of Drills
					

According to some Ukrainian soldiers, their country's military command constantly displayed reckless behavior and did not care much about the troops.




					sputniknews.com
				



... and the latest episode of "history rhymes" 








						Shaken By Reports Of Rape In Ukraine, Bosnian War Crimes Survivors Urge Ukrainian Women To Document Everything
					

Survivors of a Balkan conflict notorious for ethnic cleansing, rape, and other atrocities offer Ukrainian women hope for the future and their best advice for right now amid horrific reports coming from the current war.




					www.rferl.org


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> Maybe, but if it's not aimed at English-reading audiences, why go to the trouble of translating it?   For sure, more of the meaty stuff is in the Russian-language areas, but the English targeting isn't completely down to zero.





> Out of the world's approximately 7.8 billion inhabitants, *1.35 billion* speak English. The majority aren't native English speakers, however. About 360 million people speak English as their first language.



There are an awful lot of disgruntled english-speakers around the world.









						How Many People Speak English, And Where Is It Spoken?
					

English is the most-spoken language in the world, but how many people speak English and where all those speakers? Find out more!




					www.babbel.com
				












						Commonwealth of Nations - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## McG

The Bread Guy said:


> Maybe, but if it's not aimed at English-reading audiences, why go to the trouble of translating it?


Russian information warfare is targeting India and South Africa, including the large English speaking communities in both countries.
A lot of messaging that is developed and released for these countries eventually finds its way into western online clusters.


----------



## OldSolduer

McG said:


> Russian information warfare is targeting India and South Africa, including the large English speaking communities in both countries.
> A lot of messaging that is developed and released for these countries eventually finds its way into western online clusters.


AND I have to add it will work in some populations. Propaganda always does.


----------



## Remius

Ukrainian-born Gazprombank exec says he fled Russia to fight for his country and 'wash off' his Russian past
					

Igor Volobuev, who was born in Ukraine, served as vice president of the Russian banking giant Gazprombank.




					www.businessinsider.com
				




Respect.


----------



## KevinB

Russian going back to the way it knows - 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519366193169276928


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519073410034421761


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519073410034421761



And another BTG blunted (9 tanks - 10 per BTG).  Continuing an attrition rate of a bit more than a BTG per day over the course of the last 9 weeks. ( Something in the 60 to 80 out of 120 committed to Ukraine and 168 originally available to the Russians).

Judging from the Kill Rates and the various types of vehicles involved the conflict looks to me to be a large number of widely dispersed small unit engagements rather than large concentrations of formations.

The Russians seem to be persisting with their BTGs even if they are showing some signs of Co-Ordinating the actions of several BTGs concurrently.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519385441023180802


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519226976275517440


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> And another BTG blunted (9 tanks - 10 per BTG).  Continuing an attrition rate of a bit more than a BTG per day over the course of the last 9 weeks. ( Something in the 60 to 80 out of 120 committed to Ukraine and 168 originally available to the Russians).
> 
> Judging from the Kill Rates and the various types of vehicles involved the conflict looks to me to be a large number of widely dispersed small unit engagements rather than large concentrations of formations.
> 
> The Russians seem to be persisting with their BTGs even if they are showing some signs of Co-Ordinating the actions of several BTGs concurrently.


At this point in the game, what can Putin be hoping to achieve.  The West is going to keep sending in more and more equipment, the Ukrainians will have more and more trained personnel available every week going forward and Russia will continue to sustain loses that it surely can't make up over a short/med period of time.  Short of taking out the entire Ukrainian Sr Gov't or a subtainial Nuc against a place like Lvov, wayback from the frontlines, I really don't know what options Putin has left.


----------



## Kirkhill

Czech_pivo said:


> At this point in the game, what can Putin be hoping to achieve.  The West is going to keep sending in more and more equipment, the Ukrainians will have more and more trained personnel available every week going forward and Russia will continue to sustain loses that it surely can't make up over a short/med period of time.  Short of taking out the entire Ukrainian Sr Gov't or a subtainial Nuc against a place like Lvov, wayback from the frontlines, I really don't know what options Putin has left.



I think we better hope somebody finds Russia some other options.


----------



## McG

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519385441023180802


By contrast, Putin's Lebensraum has achieved all the evil but none of the initial successes as did Anschluss and Blitzkrieg.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519392521725648897


----------



## lenaitch

Underway said:


> Canadian Oil and Gas Exports.  Germany doesn't want our oil.  They can't process it into a usable form for their infrastructure as it's too heavy. Germany needs natural gas.  Canada doesn't really export natural gas in liquified form right now because we are integrated into the US natural gas infrastructure out west and *in Ontario (from Lake Erie wells).*


For clarity, according to the federal government, Ontario provides something in the order of 0.1% of Canada's petroleum and gas production.  The majority of the former underground 'caverns' are used for storage, where gas is pumped in during off-season when prices are more favourable.


ueo said:


> Reopen Cape Breton mines ASAP.


Those mines have been closed for at least 20 years.  De-watering mines can take months, and I'm not sure if any of the extraction, production and shipping infrastructure is even still extant.


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> I think we better hope somebody finds Russia some other options.


I'll take Putin's severed head in a dumpster for $1000 Alex.


----------



## KevinB

Yes more fail by Russia propaganda
When you forget to erase mark showing that it is YOUR destroyed Tank not a UKRAINIAN Tank 



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519398128448905225
I am sure @Soldier35 will be around soon to tell us they just marked it with the Z after it had been destroyed to confuse us...


----------



## Kirkhill

lenaitch said:


> For clarity, according to the federal government, Ontario provides something in the order of 0.1% of Canada's petroleum and gas production.  The majority of the former underground 'caverns' are used for storage, where gas is pumped in during off-season when prices are more favourable.
> 
> Those mines have been closed for at least 20 years.  De-watering mines can take months, and I'm not sure if any of the extraction, production and shipping infrastructure is even still extant.



We've got lots of good metallurgical coal on the surface here in Alberta.  No problem getting it to Montreal or Halifax, or even Sydney, if Quebec will let the trains through.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> I'll take Putin's severed head in a dumpster for $1000 Alex.


What is rotting on a pike?


----------



## The Bread Guy

OldSolduer said:


> AND I have to add it will work in some populations. Propaganda always does.


... even if it just plants the seed of "hey, I saw it on FB/Reddit/Twitter, so it must be true".


----------



## McG

The Bread Guy said:


> ... even if it just plants the seed of "hey, I saw it on FB/Reddit/Twitter, so it must be true".


or Army.ca


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:


> There are an awful lot of disgruntled english-speakers around the world.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How Many People Speak English, And Where Is It Spoken?
> 
> 
> English is the most-spoken language in the world, but how many people speak English and where all those speakers? Find out more!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.babbel.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Commonwealth of Nations - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org


I speak Italian, but I don't read it very well, so that's a rough - albeit HUGE - number.  Mind you, I only "read" what's online, as opposed to listening or watching the plethora of stuff & amplifiers out there, so there's that for sure.


----------



## The Bread Guy

McG said:


> or Army.ca


I like to think we're generally a more ... critical/cynical/skeptical audience than on most social media.  We'd have to ask @Soldier35 for his take, though, on that as someone from the outside looking in


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> I like to think we're generally a more ... critical/cynical/skeptical audience than on most social media.  We'd have to ask @Soldier35 for his take, though, on that as someone from the outside looking in


Maybe he'd defect if he had a way out, lol?  Looking to trade Chelyabinsk for Winnipeg @Soldier35?


----------



## lenaitch

Kirkhill said:


> We've got lots of good metallurgical coal on the surface here in Alberta.  No problem getting it to Montreal or Halifax, or even Sydney, if Quebec will let the trains through.


I'm not sure Quebec has ever said anything about coal (or even petroleum) trains running through the province or has made any attempt to block them.  I don't know if any of those ports have coal-handling facilities.


----------



## Maxman1

lenaitch said:


> Those mines have been closed for at least 20 years.  De-watering mines can take months, and I'm not sure if any of the extraction, production and shipping infrastructure is even still extant.



How about Springhill? I mean, how many times can one mine blow up?


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519412950204882944

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519411923539972096


----------



## Kirkhill

lenaitch said:


> I'm not sure Quebec has ever said anything about coal (or even petroleum) trains running through the province or has made any attempt to block them.  I don't know if any of those ports have coal-handling facilities.



Just yanking chains lenaitch.


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1518980725537591297

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519177727038967808


----------



## Czech_pivo

lenaitch said:


> I'm not sure Quebec has ever said anything about coal (or even petroleum) trains running through the province or has made any attempt to block them.  I don't know if any of those ports have coal-handling facilities.


Hamilton surely does. Ship to Hamilton and then out the St Lawrence and over to D-land.


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> Fire and Brimstone inbound....
> 
> 
> Brimstone: The RAF missile Ukraine is set to fire from land at sea targets​
> Brimstone was developed in the UK for the RAF and is a "fire-and-forget" missile with an extremely advanced guidance system.
> 
> The UK is looking at ways to supply anti-ship missiles to Ukraine, including mounting Brimstone missiles to vehicles, Prime Minister Boris Johnson says.
> 
> Brimstone missiles were developed by arms manufacturer MBDA for the Royal Air Force.
> 
> They have been used by British forces in Libya and Syria, and are typically launched from fast jet aircraft such as a Typhoon.
> 
> In Ukraine, the missiles would be fired from land towards targets at sea.
> 
> Defence analyst Paul Beaver said the missiles can still be "very effective" fired from land and, most importantly, they "will work".
> "Integration onto a truck isn't going to be that difficult," he said.
> 
> "The engineers at MBDA will have already thought of this and probably be working on it as we speak.
> 
> "More importantly at the moment, it's the deterrence value of it - to stop any Russian maritime aggression.
> 
> "I think Brimstone could be very effective."
> 
> However, he did draw attention to the fact the missile is not a long-range missile and not "over the horizon".
> 
> "This is about, for example, deterring in the first place and then destroying Russian landing craft should they be foolish enough to attack, say, Odesa on the south coast," he said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Brimstone: The missiles the UK could send Ukraine - explained
> 
> 
> Brimstone was developed in the UK for the RAF and is a "fire-and-forget" missile with an extremely advanced guidance system.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.forces.net



The Brits were talking about adding Brimstone to a vehicle for the Ukrainians.
Perhaps this is something like what they have in mind.   It is called a Formation Overwatch Vehicle and is part of the AJAX programme.  In concept it is an upgrade of the Swingfire armed Striker system.  

Presumably they are going to mount it on something other than the Ajax.  Perhaps the Stormer chassis to match up with the Starstreak/Martlet vehicle?


  Ajax Formation Overwatch with Brimstone ATGM on Ares

 Striker with Swingfire ATGM

 Stormer with Starstreak HVM AD and Martlet LMM Multipurpose Missiles


----------



## Underway

I find the trolling of Soldier35 pretty funny considering they are probably a bot at this point.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> I am sure @Soldier35 will be around soon to tell us they just marked it with the Z after it had been destroyed to confuse us.



To be fair, the first thing a dog does is mark its new territory.


----------



## kkwd

Soldier35 gets around. Here is a post from Pakistan Defence.
PD


----------



## Weinie

Brad Sallows said:


> To be fair, the first thing a dog does is mark its new territory.


The second thing a dog does is sniff the ass of the other dogs around him.


----------



## MilEME09

Excalibur up.....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519439655359369217


----------



## The Bread Guy

Ya know you've hit a nerve when (via RUS independent media) ....








						In Photos: Russians Strip Yellow and Blue From the Nation’s Streets Over Ukraine War - The Moscow Times
					

Gallery | Roof tiles, plastic seats, airports and playgrounds in the colors of the Ukrainian flag have all been replaced in recent weeks.




					www.themoscowtimes.com


----------



## MilEME09

Well now.... always new the orthodox church is Russia was a branch of the state


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519422957378064400


----------



## The Bread Guy

Guess these folks didn't get the memo about how pulling down statues is not as good an option as getting educated about history, especially when it's uncomfortable ...








						Soviet Monuments Come Down Across Europe
					

Statues and memorials built to glorify and memorialize the Soviet Union and the Red Army have been torn down -- in one case illegally, in several countries amid outrage at the Russian invasion of Ukraine.




					www.rferl.org


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519441884552351751


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519356447481548808


----------



## Kirkhill

Good news!  Germany finally decided to ship Gepards to Ukraine.

Bad news! Switzerland won't let them ship any ammunition for them.









						Switzerland blocks Gepard ammunition supply to Ukraine
					

Neutral Switzerland vetoed the re-export of Swiss-made ammunition used in Gepard anti-aircraft tanks that Germany is sending to Ukraine. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> Good news!  Germany finally decided to ship Gepards to Ukraine.
> 
> Bad news! Switzerland won't let them ship any ammunition for them.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Switzerland blocks Gepard ammunition supply to Ukraine
> 
> 
> Neutral Switzerland vetoed the re-export of Swiss-made ammunition used in Gepard anti-aircraft tanks that Germany is sending to Ukraine. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net


Brazil is shipping ammo for them.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> Brazil is shipping ammo for them.


Good.


----------



## Kirkhill

An opinion



> Russia has accumulated forces for the offensive, several difficult weeks are expected - forecast from Reznikov​
> *Zhdanov: Russia has strength left for 7-10 days, and it will run out of steam*​
> Zhdanov spoke about the scale of Putin's plans, they are Napoleonic. This confirms the fact that* the Russian president does not even want to listen to statements that it is necessary to preserve at least part of the combat-ready army of the Russian Federation*.
> 
> "There was information about an attempt by several generals from the Russian General Staff to provide Putin with an analytical report recommending that the second wave of the offensive be abandoned because *they are actually losing the entire combat-ready part of the army* here and everything is going to this. *He said that everything is according to plan, we continue the offensive" .*











						РФ накопила силы для наступления, ожидается несколько тяжелых недель - прогноз от Резникова
					

Министр обороны заявил, что российские войска сосредоточили все силы для масштабного наступления на востоке нашей страны




					www.segodnya.ua
				




Use Google Translate


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519356447481548808


That poor dumb bastard.


----------



## Kirkhill

Nice little video of a Brimstone test.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ud4ts6


----------



## Kirkhill

Putin’s forces ‘struggling in Donbas as they don’t like the rain’
					

Putin is thought to be trying to get some form of victory in the Donbas before May 9




					www.standard.co.uk


----------



## MilEME09

Oh look history repeating


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519418188089335808


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uddcsg


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> Brazil is shipping ammo for them.





__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ud4unp


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519466321502740482


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ud4qat


----------



## kev994

Kirkhill said:


> Good news!  Germany finally decided to ship Gepards to Ukraine.
> 
> Bad news! Switzerland won't let them ship any ammunition for them.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Switzerland blocks Gepard ammunition supply to Ukraine
> 
> 
> Neutral Switzerland vetoed the re-export of Swiss-made ammunition used in Gepard anti-aircraft tanks that Germany is sending to Ukraine. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net


Hang on, let me get this straight: so they want to build weapons but in order to remain neutral they don’t want anyone to use those weapons? Hypocrite much?


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ud4qat


His new C/S is IceMan - you really can appreciate what the Ukrainian dedication level is when you see what they are doing routinely.


----------



## YZT580

Underway said:


> Everyone forgets Germany is by far the most efficient country in Europe because of the last 20 years of slow and steady.
> 
> Germany survives surrounded by enemies and competitors by being just _better_ than everyone else.  They have more universities, they work harder, and they are more organized. When they decide to move they friggin move hard and fast.  In less than two years they will be completely off Russian natural gas completely, perhaps even sooner.
> 
> Love this line function to separate thoughts.
> 
> Canadian Oil and Gas Exports.  Germany doesn't want our oil.  They can't process it into a usable form for their infrastructure as it's too heavy. Germany needs natural gas.  Canada doesn't really export natural gas in liquified form right now because we are integrated into the US natural gas infrastructure out west and in Ontario (from Lake Erie wells).
> 
> An LNG terminal is a multi-year process to build as its complicated engineering (high pressures, very low temps) to make and ship it in liquid form.  Until this crisis, there was no impetus economically for such a huge investment one on the East Coast. Not to mention pipelines to get it there in the first place, gas is harder to pipe than liquid. Shipping natural gas across an ocean is very expensive and was never competitive with Russian and North Sea gas.
> 
> West Coast LNG is a different market/situation so we'll leave that aside for now.
> If we want to help Germany in the energy sector then we need to ship coal and coal replacement.  They use lignite which is the absolute worst form of coal to burn, less energy efficient than even wood.  A coal replacement or better quality coal would actually increase the energy efficiency of their coal fire plants and help them get more power out of them.


And I suspect that there are several east coast towns that would welcome the re-opening of their raison d'etre


----------



## Eye In The Sky

kev994 said:


> Hang on, let me get this straight: so they want to build weapons but in order to remain neutral they don’t want anyone to use those weapons? Hypocrite much?



Stupid Level:   9


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519479076528041984


----------



## Kirkhill

Worth listening to in its entirety.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ud5qmn


----------



## MilEME09

Eye In The Sky said:


> Stupid Level:   9


Didn't canada say that to the Philippines about helicopters?


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> Worth listening to in its entirety.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ud5qmn


Okay so we found 2 decent Russians


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uddcsg


So much for it needing many weeks to train UKR army troops on NATO equipment.....


----------



## daftandbarmy

Skysix said:


> So much for it needing many weeks to train UKR army troops on NATO equipment.....


----------



## MilEME09

Skysix said:


> So much for it needing many weeks to train UKR army troops on NATO equipment.....


Considering they have put more rounds down range this week then the CAF has in 10 years. I'd guess that experience has something to do with it.


----------



## DBNSG

YZT580 said:


> And I suspect that there are several east coast towns that would welcome the re-opening of their raison d'etre


I don't know about that. Most of the experienced Miners are long since dead. C.B.'s economy while far less than the mainland ( Halifax is absolutely booming) has moved on from extraction industries. More tech and Premium Golf and hospitality.


----------



## FJAG

MilEME09 said:


> Considering they have put more rounds down range this week then the CAF has in 10 years. I'd guess that experience has something to do with it.


Lets not forget as well that each of their 11 armoured and mech brigades has more artillery battalions in it then Canada owns and that on top of that there are seven lighter brigades with a battalion each and further yet that there are 10 artillery brigades with multiple battalions each. Soviet-style armies do not cheap out on artillery. 

🍻


----------



## GK .Dundas

FJAG said:


> Lets not forget as well that each of their 11 armoured and mech brigades has more artillery battalions in it then Canada owns and that on top of that there are seven lighter brigades with a battalion each and further yet that there are 10 artillery brigades with multiple battalions each. Soviet-style armies do not cheap out on artillery.
> 
> 🍻


Yeah, whereas Canada has a tendency to cheap out on......well pretty much everything.


----------



## TheProfessional

McG said:


> Now he is threatening himself.
> 
> View attachment 70376


That guard looks like he doesn't want to go to gulag for not saluting hard enough.


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> His new C/S is IceMan - you really can appreciate what the Ukrainian dedication level is when you see what they are doing routinely.



More like c/s Pucker Factor


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519542694200188928


----------



## Eaglelord17

kev994 said:


> Hang on, let me get this straight: so they want to build weapons but in order to remain neutral they don’t want anyone to use those weapons? Hypocrite much?


It makes sense unless you want them to supply both the Ukrainians AND the Russians...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Passed unanimously yesterday in the House of Commons ...


> That, given that:
> 
> (a) there is clear and ample evidence of systematic and massive war crimes and crimes against humanity being committed against the people of Ukraine by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, directed by President Vladimir Putin and others within the Russian Parliament; and
> 
> (b) the crimes committed by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation include:
> 
> (i) mass atrocities in the invaded and occupied Ukrainian territories,
> 
> (ii) systematic instances of willful killing of Ukrainian civilians and the desecration of corpses,
> 
> (iii) forcible transfer of Ukrainian children to the Russian territory,
> 
> (iv) torture and the imposition of life conditions causing grave suffering,
> 
> (v) widespread instances of physical harm, mental harm and rape,
> 
> the House recognize that the Russian Federation is committing acts of genocide against the Ukrainian people.


----------



## The Bread Guy

When the buzzwords come back to haunt you ....








						Podoliak anticipates demilitarization of Russia's border areas with Ukraine
					

Mykhailo Podoliak, adviser to the head of the President’s Office of Ukraine, assumes that in the near future the "demilitarization" of the Russian regions bordering on Ukraine will continue.




					en.interfax.com.ua


----------



## ueo

lenaitch said:


> For clarity, according to the federal government, Ontario provides something in the order of 0.1% of Canada's petroleum and gas production.  The majority of the former underground 'caverns' are used for storage, where gas is pumped in during off-season when prices are more favourable.
> 
> Those mines have been closed for at least 20 years.  De-watering mines can take months, and I'm not sure if any of the extraction, production and shipping infrastructure is even still extant.


True, but an invesyment in the mines proper and in rebuilding the Sydney harbor would also take time. I suspect any governmental support would be weak to non existant. The rest of Canada just would ignore it. Rocky Mt coal? Think the cost per ton FOB Germany would be highly unattractive as well. Maybe a resurgence in US production?


----------



## Good2Golf

Underway said:


> I find the trolling of Soldier35 pretty funny considering they are probably a bot at this point.


Not so much a bot, but a human shill for the Russian Orthodox Church and its proxy YouTube channel ‘Lamp of Knowledge.’  Whenever they put out a new video, Soldier35 lap dogs it over here to help ‘enlighten’ us… 😆


----------



## KevinB

Good2Golf said:


> Not so much a bot, but a human shill for the Russian Orthodox Church and its proxy YouTube channel ‘Lamp of Knowledge.’  Whenever they put out a new video, Soldier35 lap dogs it over here to help ‘enlighten’ us… 😆


So a bot


----------



## lenaitch

Czech_pivo said:


> Hamilton surely does. Ship to Hamilton and then out the St Lawrence and over to D-land.


They have the infrastructure to receive met coal; not sure if it works both ways.


----------



## YZT580

lenaitch said:


> They have the infrastructure to receive met coal; not sure if it works both ways.


Isn't the Hamilton coal mined in the U.S.?  We aren't even good hewers of wood and drawers of water anymore


----------



## lenaitch

YZT580 said:


> Isn't the Hamilton coal mined in the U.S.?  We aren't even good hewers of wood and drawers of water anymore


Probably.  Appalachia is a whole lot closer than Alberta/BC.  Besides, coal mining is evil in Canada doncha know.   Actually, all mining is evil to some; apparently EV batteries can be made from rainbows.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519656626118090753


----------



## KevinB

lenaitch said:


> Probably.  Appalachia is a whole lot closer than Alberta/BC.  Besides, coal mining is evil in Canada doncha know.   Actually, all mining is evil to some; apparently EV batteries can be made from rainbows.


When Elon told people to drill for oil, make pipelines and mine, you know how FUBAR the situation really is.


----------



## Dana381

KevinB said:


> When Elon told people to drill for oil, make pipelines and mine, you know how FUBAR the situation really is.



He is the only one who is thinking. If oil, gas, coal, nuclear, hydro and wind are all evil how the hell do people expect to power all these electric cars?


----------



## MilEME09

Dana381 said:


> He is the only one who is thinking. If oil, gas, coal, nuclear, hydro and wind are all evil how the hell do people expect to power all these electric cars?


Fred Flinstone style?


----------



## Good2Golf

lenaitch said:


> Besides, coal mining is evil in Canada doncha know.   Actually, *almost* all mining is evil to some; apparently EV batteries can be made from rainbows.


…if you’re digging coal out of the side of a pristine BC mountain and exporting the coal to China, then it’s ok…



That’s ‘*Green Coal*’(TM) 🍃


----------



## Weinie

MilEME09 said:


> Fred Flinstone style?


Yesssssssss. I knew that my flat, EEEE wide footies were going to come in handy someday.


----------



## Underway

Good2Golf said:


> …if you’re digging coal out of the side of a pristine BC mountain and exporting the coal to China, then it’s ok…


Silly... that mountain doesn't look pristine!



lenaitch said:


> They have the infrastructure to receive met coal; not sure if it works both ways.


Hamilton Port Authority mostly works in agricultural shipping right now.  They've really made a big name for themselves there.  Not sure if they can load coal, most of the coal that comes for the steel industry is offloaded by the ships themselves.  However, it's not complicated machinery and could easily be installed.  The question is where would you do it?  Perhaps the 800 acres that Stelco is selling off for the industry.

It's probably a no go though because of economics.  I regret bringing up German coal and sidetracking the discussion...


----------



## MilEME09

Well look what Ukraine has...this wasn't announced 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519665911791296512


----------



## Good2Golf

Underway said:


> Silly... that mountain doesn't look pristine!


You clearly experience pristine differently than the mountain does.


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> Fred Flinstone style?



Victorian style.


----------



## Underway

Good2Golf said:


> You clearly experience pristine differently than the mountain does.


Looks like the mountain is experiencing pristine the same way a wildebeest does when lions start eating it.



MilEME09 said:


> Well look what Ukraine has...this wasn't announced
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519665911791296512


Need to find a different more reliable source on this because MLRS is a big game changer.

That would be a serious sneeked-in piece of kit that changes the entire calculus for Russia and potentially increases the nuclear threat as it can strike into Russia easily.  US or German donated I wonder?


----------



## Dana381

Dana381 said:


> He is the only one who is thinking. If oil, gas, coal, nuclear, hydro and wind are all evil how the hell do people expect to power all these electric cars?



I just found the answer to my own question on i.chive


----------



## KevinB

Underway said:


> Need to find a different more reliable source on this because MLRS is a big game changer.
> 
> That would be a serious sneeked-in piece of kit that changes the entire calculus for Russia and potentially increases the nuclear threat as it can strike into Russia easily.  US or German donated I wonder?


We have openly admittedly to sending MLRS a few times -- only 18 at this point in time.
  There has been discussion about TACMS pods too - so they CAN strike into Russia...


----------



## Underway

KevinB said:


> We have openly admittedly to sending MLRS a few times -- only 18 at this point in time.
> There has been discussion about TACMS pods too - so they CAN strike into Russia...


I did not know that.  Thanks for the second line of bearing.  But I suppose that means that they are now operational in Ukraine which is new news.


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> Well look what Ukraine has...this wasn't announced
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519665911791296512



We should have that...


----------



## daftandbarmy

Good2Golf said:


> …if you’re digging coal out of the side of a pristine BC mountain and exporting the coal to China, then it’s ok…
> 
> View attachment 70402
> 
> That’s ‘*Green Coal*’(TM) 🍃



FWIW... that's a few miles from my in-laws' place in Coleman Alberta and I drive by there alot. 

You can't see any evidence of mining from the roads, or from the tops of various mountains in the area.

Miners know alot about 'intervisbility' too


----------



## KevinB

daftandbarmy said:


> We should have that...


Pretty soon Ukraine will have the second most powerful NATO Army - and be outside of NATO...
    * the heavy weapons are lend/lease - so we could theoretically ask for them back at the end.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Underway said:


> I did not know that.  Thanks for the second line of bearing.  But I suppose that means that they are now operational in Ukraine which is new news.



Question:  Could this be used in the Kherson area to knock out these 3 bridges?  Does it have the range to hit those bridges from Ukrainian territory?

If those 3 bridges are taken out, the Russians would only have a single road coming out from the Crimea (look at second pic, right side) to resupply their entire sector in the Melitopol/Zaporizhzia/Berdyansk area of operations.  The Kherson area would be reduced to a single road as well.


----------



## KevinB

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/04/28/biden-russia-oligarchs-assets-ukraine/
		

The White House on Thursday announced a proposal to allow U.S. authorities to liquidate the assets of Russian oligarchs and donate the proceeds to Ukraine, seeking what appears to be broad new legal powers to expand America’s financial war on the Kremlin.

President Biden will send the new plan to Congress as part of his broader request for aid to help the Ukrainians fight Russia’s invasion.
The White House has not revealed legislative text but said the proposal “would improve” the federal government’s ability to send the purposed Russian oligarch assets to Ukraine. Under current law, the U.S. can typically only freeze — not seize or liquidate — the assets of sanctioned individuals. Civil liberties groups had raised concerned that prior congressional proposals to do so ran afoul of constitutional protections by allowing federal law enforcement to circumvent judicial procedure. It was not immediately clear how the White House would seek to change existing statute without violating those protections.

“This package of proposals will establish new authorities for the forfeiture of property linked to Russian kleptocracy, allow the government to use the proceeds to support Ukraine, and further strengthen related law enforcement tools,” the White House said in a fact sheet.
The White House said its plan was released in close coordination with the Treasury Department, State Department, and Commerce Department. Attorney General Merrick Garland previously told congressional lawmakers that he supports the efforts to repurpose seized Russian funds to Ukraine. But even some senior Biden administration officials had emphasized the need for caution around a potentially significant change in precedent to U.S. seizure law. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen told reporters last week that lawmakers needed to be careful when asked about a plan to give to the Ukrainians billions of dollars in seized Russian bank reserves.
“I would say that is very significant, and it is one that we would carefully need to think through the consequences of before undertaking it,” Yellen told reporters last week. “I wouldn’t want to do so lightly and it’s something that I think our coalition and partners would need to feel comfortable with and be supportive of.”

The new powers sought by the White House reflect the pressure on the western allies to intensify its economic campaign against Russia over its ongoing war against Ukraine. The Biden administration’s proposal also includes a directive to make it a federal crime to “knowingly or intentionally possess proceeds directly obtained from corrupt dealings with the Russian government,” and the western allies are coordinating a response to Russia’s move to cut off natural gas to two NATO countries. The latest White House proposal also calls for improving money laundering protections and would give the U.S. the authority to seize proceeds of attempts to facilitate the evasion of sanctions.
From the beginning of the invasion, the Biden administration has led an international financial attack on those close to Russian President Vladimir Putin, including by seizing assets such as ships, luxury real estate and private aircraft. Global law enforcement has also ramped up the hunt for their assets.
The effectiveness of such measures in deterring the war and helping the Ukrainians has been less clear. The amount of Russian oligarch assets potentially available to U.S. authorities is unknown, in part because federal law enables the oligarchs to effectively disguise their assets. The U.S. Treasury, the administration said in the statement, “has sanctioned and blocked vessels and aircraft worth over $1 billion, as well as frozen hundreds of millions of dollars of assets belonging to Russian elites in U.S. bank accounts.” Earlier this month, U.S. authorities seized a 255-foot, $90 million yacht in Spain owned by Russian billionaire Viktor Vekselberg. Spanish authorities moved to freeze the vessel after the Justice Department obtained a seizure warrant seeking forfeiture in federal court in Washington, alleging U.S. bank fraud, money laundering and sanctions violations.

These are relatively minor figures compared to the $84 billion in damages Ukraine has suffered to its civilian infrastructure alone, according to estimates by economists at the Kyiv School of Economics. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last week said his country had so far suffered $550 billion in economic damage since Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion. Some Russia experts have also said the oligarch sanctions could backfire by alienating Russia’s financial elite from the west and leading them to closer ties with the Kremlin.
U.S. seizes superyacht of Russian billionaire close to Putin
But the administration’s move comes in response to growing congressional clamor to repurpose the Russian oligarch assets. The House passed a mostly symbolic bill Wednesday urging Biden to liquidate assets worth over $5 million belonging to those targeted with sanctions from the U.S. government and send the proceeds to Ukraine. It cruised through with bipartisan support in a 417-to-8 vote. A Senate proposal has backing from Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) and Roger Wicker (R-Miss.).
A prior version of the House bill would have gone further, giving the president that authority, but it was scuttled after the American Civil Liberties Union warned it could run afoul of the Constitution’s due-process protections because it did not allow its targets to challenge the government’s actions in court. ACLU officials said the measure probably would have been struck down by the judicial branch if enacted as proposed, giving Russia a potential propaganda victory over the United States. The House bill says the funds should be used for weapons for Ukraine’s military, the country’s reconstruction, humanitarian aid for refugees, and assistance for the Russian people.


Senators push for U.S. to offer cash rewards in hunt for Russian oligarchs’ assets
“The question is where the jurisdiction is, and do these oligarchs have standing to protect their property,” said Ariel Cohen, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council Eurasia Center and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. “I’m not necessarily in favor of property being seized without due process … What is the source of law to seize, let alone dispose, of these assets?”
The amount the Biden administration will seek in aid to Ukraine was not immediately clear. On Monday, Ukraine’s finance minister said the country is seeking at least $5 billion per month in international emergency aid.
_Andrew Jeong and Spencer S. Hsu contributed to this report._


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Question:  Could this be used in the Kherson area to knock out these 3 bridges?  Does it have the range to hit those bridges from Ukrainian territory?
> 
> If those 3 bridges are taken out, the Russians would only have a single road coming out from the Crimea (look at second pic, right side) to resupply their entire sector in the Melitopol/Zaporizhzia/Berdyansk area of operations.  The Kherson area would be reduced to a single road as well.
> 
> 
> View attachment 70405
> 
> View attachment 70406


Which certain loads yes.
   BUT I don't think the Ukrainian Armed Forces want to limit their ability to travel into Crimea at this point in time...
 They have a significant disparity of forces in that AO in their favor - and the more pressing fight is in the East at this time IMHO.


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> Which certain loads yes.
> BUT I don't think the Ukrainian Armed Forces want to limit their ability to travel into Crimea at this point in time...
> They have a significant disparity of forces in that AO in their favor - and the more pressing fight is in the East at this time IMHO.


Better target if they can reach is rhe Kerch straight bridge, and other rail links deep in Russia territory.


----------



## KevinB

Fantastic logistics thread for those interested in the state of Russian resources and supply. 



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519401885534498816


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Better target if they can reach is rhe Kerch straight bridge, and other rail links deep in Russia territory.


I'm not sure the Kerch bridge is a good target - maybe symbolic, but realistically you want an easy way out for fleeing Russians.
   The FSB and GRU used it already to "relocate" out of Crimea.

Deep Strikes into Russia are somewhat counterproductive - you can cause more effective reductions inside 100km, and any major strikes past that into Russia would IMHO raise the ante in Russia and give more rise to the feelings inside Russia that this is a national survival event...


----------



## Underway

KevinB said:


> https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/04/28/biden-russia-oligarchs-assets-ukraine/
> 
> 
> The White House on Thursday announced a proposal to allow U.S. authorities to liquidate the assets of Russian oligarchs and donate the proceeds to Ukraine, seeking what appears to be broad new legal powers to expand America’s financial war on the Kremlin.
> 
> President Biden will send the new plan to Congress as part of his broader request for aid to help the Ukrainians fight Russia’s invasion.
> The White House has not revealed legislative text but said the proposal “would improve” the federal government’s ability to send the purposed Russian oligarch assets to Ukraine. Under current law, the U.S. can typically only freeze — not seize or liquidate — the assets of sanctioned individuals. Civil liberties groups had raised concerned that prior congressional proposals to do so ran afoul of constitutional protections by allowing federal law enforcement to circumvent judicial procedure. It was not immediately clear how the White House would seek to change existing statute without violating those protections.
> 
> “This package of proposals will establish new authorities for the forfeiture of property linked to Russian kleptocracy, allow the government to use the proceeds to support Ukraine, and further strengthen related law enforcement tools,” the White House said in a fact sheet.
> The White House said its plan was released in close coordination with the Treasury Department, State Department, and Commerce Department. Attorney General Merrick Garland previously told congressional lawmakers that he supports the efforts to repurpose seized Russian funds to Ukraine. But even some senior Biden administration officials had emphasized the need for caution around a potentially significant change in precedent to U.S. seizure law. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen told reporters last week that lawmakers needed to be careful when asked about a plan to give to the Ukrainians billions of dollars in seized Russian bank reserves.
> “I would say that is very significant, and it is one that we would carefully need to think through the consequences of before undertaking it,” Yellen told reporters last week. “I wouldn’t want to do so lightly and it’s something that I think our coalition and partners would need to feel comfortable with and be supportive of.”
> 
> The new powers sought by the White House reflect the pressure on the western allies to intensify its economic campaign against Russia over its ongoing war against Ukraine. The Biden administration’s proposal also includes a directive to make it a federal crime to “knowingly or intentionally possess proceeds directly obtained from corrupt dealings with the Russian government,” and the western allies are coordinating a response to Russia’s move to cut off natural gas to two NATO countries. The latest White House proposal also calls for improving money laundering protections and would give the U.S. the authority to seize proceeds of attempts to facilitate the evasion of sanctions.
> From the beginning of the invasion, the Biden administration has led an international financial attack on those close to Russian President Vladimir Putin, including by seizing assets such as ships, luxury real estate and private aircraft. Global law enforcement has also ramped up the hunt for their assets.
> The effectiveness of such measures in deterring the war and helping the Ukrainians has been less clear. The amount of Russian oligarch assets potentially available to U.S. authorities is unknown, in part because federal law enables the oligarchs to effectively disguise their assets. The U.S. Treasury, the administration said in the statement, “has sanctioned and blocked vessels and aircraft worth over $1 billion, as well as frozen hundreds of millions of dollars of assets belonging to Russian elites in U.S. bank accounts.” Earlier this month, U.S. authorities seized a 255-foot, $90 million yacht in Spain owned by Russian billionaire Viktor Vekselberg. Spanish authorities moved to freeze the vessel after the Justice Department obtained a seizure warrant seeking forfeiture in federal court in Washington, alleging U.S. bank fraud, money laundering and sanctions violations.
> 
> These are relatively minor figures compared to the $84 billion in damages Ukraine has suffered to its civilian infrastructure alone, according to estimates by economists at the Kyiv School of Economics. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last week said his country had so far suffered $550 billion in economic damage since Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion. Some Russia experts have also said the oligarch sanctions could backfire by alienating Russia’s financial elite from the west and leading them to closer ties with the Kremlin.
> U.S. seizes superyacht of Russian billionaire close to Putin
> But the administration’s move comes in response to growing congressional clamor to repurpose the Russian oligarch assets. The House passed a mostly symbolic bill Wednesday urging Biden to liquidate assets worth over $5 million belonging to those targeted with sanctions from the U.S. government and send the proceeds to Ukraine. It cruised through with bipartisan support in a 417-to-8 vote. A Senate proposal has backing from Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) and Roger Wicker (R-Miss.).
> A prior version of the House bill would have gone further, giving the president that authority, but it was scuttled after the American Civil Liberties Union warned it could run afoul of the Constitution’s due-process protections because it did not allow its targets to challenge the government’s actions in court. ACLU officials said the measure probably would have been struck down by the judicial branch if enacted as proposed, giving Russia a potential propaganda victory over the United States. The House bill says the funds should be used for weapons for Ukraine’s military, the country’s reconstruction, humanitarian aid for refugees, and assistance for the Russian people.
> 
> 
> Senators push for U.S. to offer cash rewards in hunt for Russian oligarchs’ assets
> “The question is where the jurisdiction is, and do these oligarchs have standing to protect their property,” said Ariel Cohen, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council Eurasia Center and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. “I’m not necessarily in favor of property being seized without due process … What is the source of law to seize, let alone dispose, of these assets?”
> The amount the Biden administration will seek in aid to Ukraine was not immediately clear. On Monday, Ukraine’s finance minister said the country is seeking at least $5 billion per month in international emergency aid.
> _Andrew Jeong and Spencer S. Hsu contributed to this report._


This matches what the Cabinet has been saying, laying the groundwork for eventual seizure and sale. The UK has also been making noises about this as well.  It seems to be a coordinated effort.

I expect US courts to strike this down in the US.  But then again there are lots of variations of Civil Forfeiture laws in the US that allow law enforcement to seize assets without a warrant  (and in Canada as well).  The law may be structured so that "war" is made equivalent to criminal behavior and therefore Civil Forfeiture like arguments may apply.

Interesting to see.



KevinB said:


> I'm not sure the Kerch bridge is a good target - maybe symbolic, but realistically you want an easy way out for fleeing Russians.
> The FSB and GRU used it already to "relocate" out of Crimea.
> 
> Deep Strikes into Russia are somewhat counterproductive - you can cause more effective reductions inside 100km, and any major strikes past that into Russia would IMHO raise the ante in Russia and give more rise to the feelings inside Russia that this is a national survival event...


I agree. Stay on the fringes of the Russian Core because as soon as you hit where the people live in high density it adds steam to the propaganda machine and becomes harder to make the Russian Gov't step back in negotiations.


----------



## KevinB

Underway said:


> I expect US courts to strike this down in the US.


I expect legislation to be introduced to allow it - and frankly I don't see any court wanting to flout public opinion - as well over 66% of Americans on BOTH side of the aisle support Ukraine and tougher measures against Russia 


Underway said:


> But then again there are lots of variations of Civil Forfeiture laws in the US that allow law enforcement to seize assets without a warrant  (and in Canada as well).  The law may be structured so that "war" is made equivalent to criminal behavior and therefore Civil Forfeiture like arguments may apply.


Some of them are overly draconian - but I think POTUS has already made a pretty clear framing of the illegal Russian invasion and I don't see any issues with this sailing through the House and Senate.


Underway said:


> I agree. Stay on the fringes of the Russian Core because as soon as you hit where the people live in high density it adds steam to the propaganda machine and becomes harder to make the Russian Gov't step back in negotiations.


I totally understand the desire of Ukrainians to punish Russia in their homes, and emotionally I support them 110% - however, unless we (NATO) are prepared to go all in and launch preemptive strikes against Russian Nuclear assets - I do not see any strategic advantage to widening the war into deep Russian territory.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519690703730884609

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519687271343140865


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519612301007015936


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519692154716753922


----------



## rmc_wannabe

A solid "pay someone else to do it" plan. Ukraine is more than happy to receive the aid. NATO is happy to see Russia fall to pieces around themselves. Biden is ecstatic its all happening without flag-draped coffins coming into Dulles international Airport in the process.


----------



## KevinB

rmc_wannabe said:


> A solid "pay someone else to do it" plan. Ukraine is more than happy to receive the aid. NATO is happy to see Russia fall to pieces around themselves. Biden is ecstatic its all happening without flag-draped coffins coming into Dulles international Airport in the process.


It isn't a proxy war, as we are not paying Ukraine or supporting Ukraine to fight with Russia, we are supporting Ukraine against Russian illegal and immoral aggression.  That is a very different situation from sending weapons to foster a conflict against someone we don't like.


----------



## Kirkhill

For the record that 33 BUSD represents about 0.15% of the US annual GDP of 21,000 BUSD.   Consider it Foreign Aid.  And the international standard for Foreign Aid is 0.7% of GDP.  So that figure represents something like 20% of the annual Foreign Aid budget.

Walpole's European strategy.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> It isn't a proxy war, as we are not paying Ukraine or supporting Ukraine to fight with Russia, we are supporting Ukraine against Russian illegal and immoral aggression.  That is a very different situation from sending weapons to foster a conflict against someone we don't like.


Fair enough. Follow on affects are not necessarily the full _causass belli ._


----------



## Underway

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519690703730884609
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519687271343140865


$20 billion for weapons works out to ~$25billion CDN.  If anyone was wondering about how that compares to our own defense budget.  $13 billion for aid is also amazing.  It pretty much pays for the Ukrainian war effort for the last two months as well, as they estimated the war costs them ~$6 billion a month to keep fighting.


----------



## JLB50

Does anyone here know if the Ukrainian government is still able to get tax revenues from the people and the businesses that haven’t had to flee?  Or are their revenues non existent and depending solely on what they get from foreign governments?  In other words how does the banking/power/highway/health/medical/etc. infrastructure manage to keep going?


----------



## Kirkhill

JLB50 said:


> Does anyone here know if the Ukrainian government is still able to get tax revenues from the people and the businesses that haven’t had to flee?  Or are their revenues non existent and depending solely on what they get from foreign governments?  In other words how does the banking/power/highway/health/medical/etc. infrastructure manage to keep going?


I remember seeing something of a tax holiday being announced as well as the dropping of duties on imports.
At the same time it is being made clear to foreign volunteers that Territorials aren't getting paid and communal soup kitchens are the order of the day.
I suspect that the ordinary economy is largely in abeyance just now.
A lot of people doing their National Duty.


----------



## ringo

Will Canada seize the AN124 currently grounded in Toronto, award aircraft to Ukraine or CAF?


----------



## OldSolduer

ringo said:


> Will Canada seize the AN124 currently grounded in Toronto, award aircraft to Ukraine or CAF?


The RCAF should politely refuse it.


----------



## Kirkhill

Obviously things are going really well.  All according to plan.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/udun01

Target!


----------



## RaceAddict

OldSolduer said:


> The RCAF should politely refuse it.



_Seriously!! _(and not even "politely"...)

Unless it was one of the meticulously maintained Antonov Airlines jets, we would _not _want an An-124. The Russian ones likely haven't seen proper maintenance since 2014: Watch This Huge Russian An-124 Condor Skid Off The Runway After An Engine Failure


----------



## Underway

ringo said:


> Will Canada seize the AN124 currently grounded in Toronto, award aircraft to Ukraine or CAF?


Fly it back to Ukraine full of medical supplies, ammo or something else they need.  "Here's your new plane!  Oh BTW I left something in the trunk for you."


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> Obviously things are going really well.  All according to plan.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/udun01
> 
> Target!




The effects of the Boss being in town.   A target rich environment.









						Потери России в войне растут: только за минувшие сутки погибли 400 захватчиков - Генштаб
					

С начала полномасштабного вторжения в Украину Россия потеряла убитыми 22800 военных, за прошедшие сутки погибли четыре сотни оккупантов.




					www.pravda.com.ua
				




​


> THURSDAY, APRIL 28, 2022, 10:26 AM​Russia's losses in the war are growing: 400 invaders died in the past day alone - General Staff​
> *Source* : data of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
> 
> *Details:* The total enemy combat losses from February 24 to April 28 were approximately:
> 
> 
> personnel - about 22800 (+400) people liquidated,
> tanks - 970 (+31) units,
> armored fighting vehicles ‒ 2389 (+47) units,
> artillery systems - 431 (+10) units,
> MLRS - 151 (+2) units,
> air defense systems - 72 (+1) units,
> aircraft - 187 (+2) units,
> helicopters - 155 (+0) units,
> automotive equipment - 1688 (+22) units,
> ships / boats - 8 (+0) units,
> tanks with fuel and lubricants - 76 (+0),
> UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 215 (+8),
> special equipment - 31 (+0).
> launchers OTRK / TRK - 4 (+0).
> The greatest losses of the enemy (over the past day) were observed in the Zaporozhye and Izyum directions.



Another 3 or 4 BTGs gone West.   Thanks, Gerasimov.


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/udwdrc


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/udsxf4


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:


> Obviously things are going really well.  All according to plan.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/udun01
> 
> Target!


I'm told karma is a cruel thing, in & around Ukraine these days.

More on that from UKR media ...








						Top Russian military chief arrives in Ukraine to oversee the offensive
					

Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Army Valery Gerasimov will personally lead the offensive of the Russian troops in the Izyum axis, reported the Ukrainian news website Defense Express. According to Defense Express, Gerasimov has allegedly already arrived at the Russian military control...




					www.uawire.org


----------



## Kirkhill

https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/europe/2022/04/27/ukraine-special-forces-wreak-havoc-behind-russian-lines/


----------



## Kirkhill

Just calm down!


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/udse70


----------



## Kirkhill

Tanks vs Infantry on open ground.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/udr6d6


----------



## OldSolduer

Kirkhill said:


> Obviously things are going really well.  All according to plan.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/udun01
> 
> Target!


No kidding. Perhaps there is a motivated young skilled Ukranian sniper ready to up his count.

I would guess though a UAV or EW stuff gets him targeted then WHAM!!!


----------



## McG

OldSolduer said:


> WHAM!!!


Is that short hand for 155 mm M982 Excalibur?


----------



## OldSolduer

McG said:


> Is that short hand for 155 mm M982 Excalibur?


Hellfire? or 155. As long as it goes BOOM. BIG BOOM!


----------



## The Bread Guy

Pulling Canada into the info-fight a bit - this from Pravda ....

OP edit to add latest from RUS state media ...


----------



## McG

Kirkhill said:


> No idea if this is true but it has comedic value if nothing else.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/udxsyu
> 
> Edit- Sorry! Wrong thread.  Getting confused.


I read that and picture Russian generals injecting heroin into their infantry.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> BOOM. BIG BOOM!



Big bada boom!


----------



## Brad Sallows

> The mine is designed to destroy armored vehicles in the upper hemisphere.



If UKR has armored vehicles capable of operating in the upper hemisphere (wherever that is), Russia better surrender now while it can still get terms.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Nice one, Cyril....

We should start constructing anti-tank ranges so we can practise firing from roofs....


----------



## Czech_pivo

Soldier35 said:


> Today, Russian air defense worked again over the Belgorod region, one of the local residents became a witness to this
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The work of the Russian portable ground reconnaissance radar station "Fara-VR" in combat conditions in Mariupol. The video shows how the operator on the remote control marks the targets and directs the tankers and the crew of the BMP at him, who alternately fire at the targets. The radar is intended for reconnaissance of moving ground targets and transmission of target designation. Detected targets are displayed on the screen, you can even notice when a person just leaned out of the window.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The latest Russian jumping anti-tank mines PTKM-1R appeared in Ukraine. The mine is designed to destroy armored vehicles in the upper hemisphere. When the target approaches 50 m, the seismic sensor of the mine issues a command to shoot the combat element. The combat element moves along a ballistic trajectory, its sensors, thermal and radar, begin to scan the earth's surface. After detecting the target, the warhead is undermined and hits enemy equipment from above in the most vulnerable parts - the roof, turret and hull.


Dude, you coming to Winnipeg? It’s better than that warehouse in Chelyabinsk that you’re living at now. Come on Camrade, we’ve got McDonalds still…


----------



## WLSC

Meeting in DC


----------



## MilEME09

Bulgaria agrees to allow Ukraine to use Bulgarian ports to export goods.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519848422928494592


----------



## RaceAddict

Soldier35 said:


> Today, Russian air defense worked again over the Belgorod region, one of the local residents became a witness to this



You know things aren't going that great when the headline is that something "worked"...


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519732444299153412


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519825722617090049


----------



## daftandbarmy

True or false?
​Fact check: Fake news thrives amid Russia-Ukraine war​Manipulated photos, false statements, state propaganda and deepfake videos are all part of the war between Russia and Ukraine. We debunk some examples and show how to see through the deception.









						Fact check: Fake news thrives amid Russia-Ukraine war | DW | 28.04.2022
					

Manipulated photos, false statements, state propaganda and deepfake videos are all part of the war between Russia and Ukraine. We debunk some examples and show how to see through the deception.




					www.dw.com


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

@MilEME09  how would you like to have your face sprayed all over the internet for your loved ones to see?

Have some decency as a "supposed" professional soldier and not some member of a ragtag two bit MILITIA who doesn't even understand Geneva Conventions 101. 

You don't know these people, you don't know why they were are in Ukraine, you don't know what they've been told or what their access to information is.  Get a grip and grow up!!


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519900431895470082


----------



## The Bread Guy

WLSC said:


> Meeting in DC


Here's the US info-machine's take ...








						Canada, U.S. in Lockstep for Support to Ukraine, NATO
					

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III hosted Canadian Minister of National Defense Anita Anand for a meeting that covered a wide range of issues facing both neighbors.



					www.defense.gov


----------



## The Bread Guy

Here we go again ....





						Mounting evidence Canada trained Ukrainian extremists, gov't needs to be held to account: experts
					

Continued evidence that the Canadian Armed Forces have trained extremists in Ukrainian military should raise tough questions for government, experts say.




					beta.ctvnews.ca


----------



## OldSolduer

Czech_pivo said:


> Dude, you coming to Winnipeg? It’s better than that warehouse in Chelyabinsk that you’re living at now. Come on Camrade, we’ve got McDonalds still…


We do not want this idiot in Winnipeg please. We have enough here already.


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> @MilEME09  how would you like to have your face sprayed all over the internet for your loved ones to see?
> 
> Have some decency as a "supposed" professional soldier and not some member of a ragtag two bit MILITIA who doesn't even understand Geneva Conventions 101.
> 
> You don't know these people, you don't know why they were are in Ukraine, you don't know what they've been told or what their access to information is.  Get a grip and grow up!!


Given russia has been hiding casualties, if u was a Russian soldier atleast if I was killed and my passport taken a photo of, my family might find out.

Article 15 states the dead should be collected, identified, information passed on. If the other side is refusing to acknowledge that information, that's another story.


Am I fully versed is all 4 conventions? No so if I did wrong I apologize. We are all human, I shall be more careful in the future.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520026085118861312


----------



## daftandbarmy

Truth...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519720709227958272


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> Given russia has been hiding casualties, if u was a Russian soldier atleast if I was killed and my passport taken a photo of, my family might find out.
> 
> Article 15 states the dead should be collected, identified, information passed on. If the other side is refusing to acknowledge that information, that's another story.
> 
> 
> Am I fully versed is all 4 conventions? No so if I did wrong I apologize. We are all human, I shall be more careful in the future.



That's not your choice to make.  Do you think showing a nametag covered in blood is "trying to inform the family" or is it terror porn?

Why not just post ISIS beheading videos while you're at it?  It serves the exact same purpose.


----------



## Underway

daftandbarmy said:


> Truth...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519720709227958272


Did they receive Leo 1's at all?  i know there was some discussion of it.  Secondly, that is exactly what would happen.  Leo 1's were not known for their armor protection, it was their mobility that stood out.

Also great photoshop.


----------



## suffolkowner

Underway said:


> Did they receive Leo 1's at all?  i know there was some discussion of it.  Secondly, that is exactly what would happen.  Leo 1's were not known for their armor protection, it was their mobility that stood out.
> 
> Also great photoshop.


Would they be upgraded to the 120mm? I know beggars cant be choosers but the last thing NATO needs to do is burden Ukraine with more and more diverse logistics challenges?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Underway said:


> Did they receive Leo 1's at all?  i know there was some discussion of it.  Secondly, that is exactly what would happen.  Leo 1's were not known for their armor protection, it was their mobility that stood out.
> 
> Also great photoshop.


MSM on Monday said Rheinmetall asked the DEU govt to export 88 of them to UKR with DEU media saying Tuesday "no word yet" & I haven't seen an OS source saying DEU's given the go ahead since then.


----------



## daftandbarmy

suffolkowner said:


> Would they be upgraded to the 120mm? I know beggars cant be choosers but the last thing NATO needs to do is burden Ukraine with more and more diverse logistics challenges?



Looks like it's possible:
Leopard 1A6​The _Leopard 1A6_ prototype was a single Leopard 1 A1A1 testbed, modified with additional armour on the turret and equipped with a 120 mm L/44 gun. The project was ended in 1987, as the Leopard 2 was in widespread service at this point and the 1A5 offered a more reasonable upgrade path for a fraction of the cost.









						Leopard 1 - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Underway

daftandbarmy said:


> Looks like it's possible:
> Leopard 1A6​The _Leopard 1A6_ prototype was a single Leopard 1 A1A1 testbed, modified with additional armour on the turret and equipped with a 120 mm L/44 gun. The project was ended in 1987, as the Leopard 2 was in widespread service at this point and the 1A5 offered a more reasonable upgrade path for a fraction of the cost.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Leopard 1 - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org


I personally wouldn't do it. I think that a Leo 1 would be fine for quite a few tasks if outmatched vs Russian tanks.  sometimes you just need the armored body and HE for infantry support and they will likely be great for that.  And they are a massive overmatch vs BMP's and other lighter Russian vehicles.


----------



## MilEME09

Underway said:


> I personally wouldn't do it. I think that a Leo 1 would be fine for quite a few tasks if outmatched vs Russian tanks.  sometimes you just need the armored body and HE for infantry support and they will likely be great for that.  And they are a massive overmatch vs BMP's and other lighter Russian vehicles.


Do we still have the MEXAS kits in storage? Or were those scrapped too? Those would be a good thing to donate to up armour some of those Leo's


----------



## AlexanderM

I noticed that the upgraded Russian tanks have the 125mm gun, so would the 120mm gun be outranged?


----------



## KevinB

AlexanderM said:


> I noticed that the upgraded Russian tanks have the 125mm gun, so would the 120mm gun be outranged?


No. The fire control on western tanks is vastly superior as is the ammunition, and the armor. 

Just wait for the Ukrainian ABCT’s with full US kit rotate in…


----------



## Skysix




----------



## McG

suffolkowner said:


> Would they be upgraded to the 120mm? I know beggars cant be choosers but the last thing NATO needs to do is burden Ukraine with more and more diverse logistics challenges?





Underway said:


> I personally wouldn't do it. I think that a Leo 1 would be fine for quite a few tasks if outmatched vs Russian tanks.  sometimes you just need the armored body and HE for infantry support and they will likely be great for that.  And they are a massive overmatch vs BMP's and other lighter Russian vehicles.





MilEME09 said:


> Do we still have the MEXAS kits in storage? Or were those scrapped too? Those would be a good thing to donate to up armour some of those Leo's


I would not waste the time doing the systems integration engineering & installation work to up-gun any Leopard 1. If Ukraine feels Leopard 1 is out matched by  upgraded T64 & T72 on the eastern front or if Ukraine does not want to manage the logistics chain of dragging 105 mm tank ammunition all the way across the country, then I am sure the modest number of 88 x Leopard 1 offered by Rheinmetall would be more than suitable to displace Ukrainian T72 guarding vs Transnistria.


----------



## McG

Saw this yesterday, but don't think I have seen it here yet.  Canadian Army is training Ukrainian forces to shoot the M777: 








						Canada training Ukrainian troops on howitzer artillery, Canadian defense minister says
					

Canada's Defense Minister Anita Anand said during a visit to Washington on Thursday that Canadian troops were training Ukrainian troops to use howitzer artillery.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

McG said:


> Saw this yesterday, but don't think I have seen it here yet.  Canadian Army is training Ukrainian forces to shoot the M777:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada training Ukrainian troops on howitzer artillery, Canadian defense minister says
> 
> 
> Canada's Defense Minister Anita Anand said during a visit to Washington on Thursday that Canadian troops were training Ukrainian troops to use howitzer artillery.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com



Live feed on the US announcing the same.

Go Florida National Guard!





__ https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=705423543989665


----------



## MilEME09

daftandbarmy said:


> Live feed on the US announcing the same.
> 
> Go Florida National Guard!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=705423543989665


Sooner these guns are on the front, the better, do not know how true it is but a few reports have come out that Ukraine is going through arty rounds faster then it can replenish Soviet era ammo. Western guns and ammo chains will help with that, though I imagine there must be a factory in Poland that can make 152mm howitzer rounds that's probably ramping up production.


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519825722617090049


Thank you, America. I cannot stress how important and historic this is. Absolutely amazing.


The Bread Guy said:


> Here we go again ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Mounting evidence Canada trained Ukrainian extremists, gov't needs to be held to account: experts
> 
> 
> Continued evidence that the Canadian Armed Forces have trained extremists in Ukrainian military should raise tough questions for government, experts say.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> beta.ctvnews.ca


Canada never fails to disappoint... worrying about identity politics while those that matter are actually fighting for their lives.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520016749944524800

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520043947950759936

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519971274449199104


----------



## Kirkhill

Why not RCAF Hornets?


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uejrir


----------



## Kirkhill

Putin has now fired Gerasimov it seems.

With any luck at all he will fire himself shortly.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ueloqi


----------



## Kirkhill

Airborne IEDs


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uenlrs


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uepg0t


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ueo4n1


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ueicf6


----------



## Kirkhill

Take these intercepts for what they are worth.  Personally I only rate them 50:50.  They might be truthful or the might be faked.  On the one hand they seem to correspond to a lot of supporting data but....


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uepv3b


----------



## CBH99

The Bread Guy said:


> Pulling Canada into the info-fight a bit - this from Pravda ....
> View attachment 70413
> OP edit to add latest from RUS state media ...
> View attachment 70414


Chatted with Trev within the last 24hrs.  

The situation in Azovstal started before he even arrived in country.  

Just goes to show you how local media is monitored by the RUS info-machine and used.


----------



## Kirkhill

@dimsum - translation?


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uerp9h


----------



## McG

Kirkhill said:


> Putin has now fired Gerasimov it seems.
> 
> With any luck at all he will fire himself shortly.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ueloqi


It did not end well for the last tyrant dictator who attempted to personally direct his armies in a conquest of Europe.


----------



## NavyShooter

Little man in the bunker shooting himself...somehow I felt that comment would be prophetic a few weeks back ...


----------



## Kirkhill

Boris and Joe can get re-elected in Ukraine.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uej313


----------



## Kirkhill

More on the dust-up between Russian Chechens and Russian Buryats in Kherson region over looting rights.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ueoyp5


----------



## The Bread Guy

CBH99 said:


> Chatted with Trev within the last 24hrs.
> 
> The situation in Azovstal started before he even arrived in country.
> 
> Just goes to show you how local media is monitored by the RUS info-machine and used.


Hope the individual mentioned is OK, but you're bang on about how it's ALL grist for the various info-machine mills.


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uepems









						Ukraine Army retakes control of village of Ruska Lozova in Kharkiv region
					

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have liberated the village of Ruska Lozova in the Kharkiv region from Russian invaders. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## rmc_wannabe

McG said:


> It did not end well for the last tyrant dictator who attempted to personally direct his armies in a conquest of Europe.


----------



## Kirkhill

Transnistria, like Belarus is currently a Border Guard matter it seems.  Likewise in the Sumy and Chernihiv districts butting up against Belgorod in Russia.









						Ukraine strengthening protection of Transnistrian section of border with Moldova
					

The situation at the Transnistrian section of Ukraine's border with Moldova remains tense. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Kirkhill

Kharkiv Garbage.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ueionj


----------



## Czech_pivo

McG said:


> It did not end well for the last tyrant dictator who attempted to personally direct his armies in a conquest of Europe.


Hopefully he gives the standard 2 weeks notice so we can arrange a proper farewell gift.


----------



## Kirkhill

Two way traffic 

Ukraine to Romania and Ukraine to Russia


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uepc3v


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ue2mu4


----------



## OldSolduer

McG said:


> It did not end well for the last tyrant dictator who attempted to personally direct his armies in a conquest of Europe.


Well let's hope it ends in a similar fashion - I just hope he hasn't bunkered down with the codes....


----------



## Czech_pivo

OldSolduer said:


> Well let's hope it ends in a similar fashion - I just hope he hasn't bunkered down with the codes....


Anonymous has hacked all the codes and nullified them.  Man's holding a pistol with a broken firing pin.


----------



## Kirkhill

Again, mileage may vary -  Comment about losing two men in the beginning of March is interesting.  It suggests no casualties since then.  Which might coincide with the reported clockwork "daily hates".


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ueq057


----------



## Kirkhill

*And before I sign off for the afternoon....  Whodathunkit?   This is a much bigger deal than 9/11.   CNN sez.*​​


> CNN's Fareed Zakaria claims Russia invasion of Ukraine 'is a much bigger deal than 9/11'​











						CNN's Fareed Zakaria claims Russia invasion of Ukraine 'is a much bigger deal than 9/11'
					

Zakaria believes that Russia has shattered international norms accepted since the end of WWII, calling it a seismic event that has ushered in a new world.




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> Two way traffic
> 
> Ukraine to Romania and Ukraine to Russia
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uepc3v
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ue2mu4


Take out a few of these convoys via drones/improvised munitions and the theft rate will drop rapidly


----------



## Skysix

Czech_pivo said:


> Anonymous has hacked all the codes and nullified them.  Man's holding a pistol with a broken firing pin.


Source? 

Highly optimistic and if true dangerous. If they hacked and replaced them then the nuclear trigger is in the hands of a few unaccountable mostly unknown digital anarchists


----------



## Skysix

McG said:


> Saw this yesterday, but don't think I have seen it here yet.  Canadian Army is training Ukrainian forces to shoot the M777:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada training Ukrainian troops on howitzer artillery, Canadian defense minister says
> 
> 
> Canada's Defense Minister Anita Anand said during a visit to Washington on Thursday that Canadian troops were training Ukrainian troops to use howitzer artillery.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com




__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uddcsg


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> @dimsum - translation?
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uerp9h
> 
> View attachment 70429


----------



## Underway

This thread is just becoming a spam thread to repeat /Reddit garbage and unsourced info.  

Unsubscribed.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Skysix said:


> Source?
> 
> Highly optimistic and if true dangerous. If they hacked and replaced them then the nuclear trigger is in the hands of a few unaccountable mostly unknown digital anarchists



As opposed to?


----------



## MilEME09

Latest ISW report





						Institute for the Study of War
					

Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine made minor advances on April 28. Russian forces attacking southwest from Izyum likely seek to bypass Ukrainian defenses on the direct road to Slovyansk. Russian forces continued shelling and minor attacks




					www.understandingwar.org


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> The fighters of the Russian army from Tuva suppressed the firing point and destroyed the Ukrainian car with return fire, later a Russian helicopter came to the rescue, the remnants of the Ukrainian soldiers retreated.


@Soldier35 yeah, while the rest of Bryansk burned 🔥

You Russians have great dark humour!


----------



## Portnord

Kirkhill said:


> Putin has now fired Gerasimov it seems.
> 
> With any luck at all he will fire himself shortly.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ueloqi


Maybe he'll take a trip to the front to sort things out?


----------



## KevinB

Portnord said:


> Maybe he'll take a trip to the front to sort things out?


We can only wish.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520146316227194881


----------



## KevinB

Well they started the war with three less armored brigades than thru have now…


----------



## daftandbarmy

Portnord said:


> Maybe he'll take a trip to the front to sort things out?



Could a bunker parody be far behind?


----------



## TacticalTea

daftandbarmy said:


> Live feed on the US announcing the same.
> 
> Go Florida National Guard!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=705423543989665


One hell of a press conference. Worth watching. Some powerful words from Kirby.


Kirkhill said:


> More on the dust-up between Russian Chechens and Russian Buryats in Kherson region over looting rights.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ueoyp5


Ukrainians have been calling them Orcs but I didn't realize that was an invitation to actually act like the Orcs from Lord of the Rings...


----------



## Furniture

Underway said:


> This thread is just becoming a spam thread to repeat /Reddit garbage and unsourced info.
> 
> Unsubscribed.


The thread isn't an airport, no need to announce departures...


----------



## MilEME09

Now take with salt but, Russia seems to loose 6-12 tanks a day it seems. Thats upto 1 BTG loosing all its tanks per day. They are going to be pulling T55s out of war stocks at this rate.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520159941897723904


----------



## The Bread Guy

It's 2022, and we have to have people assessing this question in Europe ....








						Legal Frameworks for Assessing the Use of Starvation in Ukraine
					

A comprehensive analysis by leading legal expert on starvation and siege warfare, as that law applies to Russia's war in Ukraine.




					www.justsecurity.org


----------



## dapaterson

Apparently the new Russian plan has been leaked.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520068115635318784


----------



## kev994

Soldier35 said:


> Video of the battle on the borders of Russia and Ukraine near the Sevsky district of the Bryansk region. On the evening of April 25, a Ukrainian group in two cars drove up to the checkpoint and tried to break through into Russia, failing to achieve this, shelling Russian territory from mortars began. The fighters of the Russian army from Tuva suppressed the firing point and destroyed the Ukrainian car with return fire, later a Russian helicopter came to the rescue, the remnants of the Ukrainian soldiers retreated.


Ha! Nobody want to go to Russia! They’re weak and their weapons are inferior.


----------



## Kirkhill

Another BTG removed from play.

Source - Ukrainian General Staff.









						Ukrainian defenders destroy 60 enemy vehicles in JFO area
					

The Ukrainian military destroyed 11 Russian tanks and more than 40 units of other equipment in the area of the Joint Forces Operation on Friday, April 29. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				





And apparently the VDV had a bad day against the Ukrainian 24th Mech









						Only seven Russian paratroopers survived after attempt to attack Ukrainian positions in Luhansk region, - Haidai
					

In the Luhansk region, Russian paratroopers stormed the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and only seven invaders managed to survive. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## MilEME09

dapaterson said:


> Apparently the new Russian plan has been leaked.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520068115635318784


That does fall in line with the rumors putin has taken command of the operation, and send his top general to the front.


----------



## MilEME09

I think Moldova needs help..... not, is it 1960?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519950034053255168


----------



## Czech_pivo

Skysix said:


> Source?
> 
> Highly optimistic and if true dangerous. If they hacked and replaced them then the nuclear trigger is in the hands of a few unaccountable mostly unknown digital anarchists


Who reside in the environs around Reston/Langley, VA…..


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520062628617457665


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Who reside in the environs around Reston/Langley, VA…..


Anonymous isn’t a Christians In Action entity. It’s not even all American hackers. I suspect several have European former Soviet block roots.  
   They did however break their original charter of non harming action for their back when they declared war on Russia.


----------



## Maxman1

daftandbarmy said:


> As opposed to?









TacticalTea said:


> Ukrainians have been calling them Orcs but I didn't realize that was an invitation to actually act like the Orcs from Lord of the Rings...



Where there's a whip, there's a way.


----------



## Maxman1

Apparently we still have a few Leopard 1s, being turned into targets after a buyer could not be found. I wonder if any could be sent to Ukraine.


----------



## MilEME09

Maxman1 said:


> Apparently we still have a few Leopard 1s, being turned into targets after a buyer could not be found. I wonder if any could be sent to Ukraine.


honestly ours are not in good condition at all at this point, heck prior to Afghanistan  we had to weld steel plates to the underside of the hulls, why? they had been used, and abused so much that natural ware caused the hull to be only a few millimeters thick. If they are being turned into targets, they likely have everything stripped out already, bare hulls are useless to them.


----------



## The Bread Guy

From the "War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength." files, this from RUS state media ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

This from NATO





						NATO jets scramble in response to Russian aircraft over Baltic and Black Sea
					

RAMSTEIN, Germany - NATO fighter jets stationed around the Baltic and Black Seas have scrambled multiple times over the past four days to track and intercept Russian aircraft near Alliance airspace...




					ac.nato.int


----------



## The Bread Guy

Reworking some of the classics


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520275307713945600


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> This from NATO
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> NATO jets scramble in response to Russian aircraft over Baltic and Black Sea
> 
> 
> RAMSTEIN, Germany - NATO fighter jets stationed around the Baltic and Black Seas have scrambled multiple times over the past four days to track and intercept Russian aircraft near Alliance airspace...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ac.nato.int


Call me cynical, but sounds like they are testing what our response times are.


----------



## OldSolduer

MilEME09 said:


> Call me cynical, but sounds like they are testing what our response times are.


Comrade fighter pilots you are mistaken!! We go for little joyride in jet plane and get ….lost?


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> Call me cynical, but sounds like they are testing what our response times are.


Not a test, but pushing the envelope…they same way they did busting SWE airspace carrying *nukes a few weeks ago.

More of the Russians just ‘Russiaing’…


----------



## MilEME09

Denmark donating more kit


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520386268332441605


----------



## MilEME09

Alright I am skeptical of the claim of a Russian commander committing suicide but I do believe vehicles in long term were stripped for rare metals and such to be sold. Given corruption I bet many thought it was the perfect crime.









						Russian commander 'killed himself after learning 90% of his tanks are useless'
					

Ukraine claimed that some tanks did not even have engines.




					metro.co.uk


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> Alright I am skeptical of the claim of a Russian commander committing suicide but I do believe vehicles in long term were stripped for rare metals and such to be sold. Given corruption I bet many thought it was the perfect crime.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian commander 'killed himself after learning 90% of his tanks are useless'
> 
> 
> Ukraine claimed that some tanks did not even have engines.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> metro.co.uk


Perhaps @Soldier35 can confirm for us the details?  I heard rumours that the Commander had stopped his tank, ran to the nearest apartment building, then tripped up six flights of stairs and out a window at the end of the stairway…


----------



## daftandbarmy

Soldier35 said:


> Hollywood actress Angelina Jolie arrived in Ukraine. She was noticed in one of the local cafes in the city of Lviv. Apparently, the actress visited Ukraine as part of a program to help the people of Ukraine together with the UN Ambassador for Refugees.



Well, my fears are calmed now that Hollywood is finally deploying in support of this existential conflict


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Soldier35 said:


> Hollywood actress Angelina Jolie arrived in Ukraine. She was noticed in one of the local cafes in the city of Lviv. Apparently, the actress visited Ukraine as part of a program to help the people of Ukraine together with the UN Ambassador for Refugees.


She takes her role in the UN seriously, likley more seriously than some of the "Professional diplomats"


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> Perhaps @Soldier35 can confirm for us the details?  I heard rumours that the Commander had stopped his tank, ran to the nearest apartment building, then tripped up six flights of stairs and out a window at the end of the stairway…


... because he wouldn't drink the tea Putin sent ....


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> Hollywood actress Angelina Jolie arrived in Ukraine. She was noticed in one of the local cafes in the city of Lviv. Apparently, the actress visited Ukraine as part of a program to help the people of Ukraine together with the UN Ambassador for Refugees.


@Soldier35, so you agree then that Ukraine is being unfairly treated by Russia’s deliberate war to turn the country into a land of refugees?  

Many here agree with your recent enlightenment. 👍🏼 

ps. Be careful when walking on stairs…you wouldn’t want to trip up them and out a nearby window.


----------



## dapaterson

It's all about the navy.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520333220964933632


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520406942203658241
Nice to see the UN actually doing something useful


----------



## daftandbarmy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520406942203658241
> Nice to see the UN actually doing something useful



Hold that thought. 

It's not 'done' yet


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520406942203658241
> Nice to see the UN actually doing something useful


Think they have to save face since they shell Kyiv while the secretary general was there. Atleast in their eyes, nothing to save with the rest of the world.


----------



## CBH99

MilEME09 said:


> Alright I am skeptical of the claim of a Russian commander committing suicide but I do believe vehicles in long term were stripped for rare metals and such to be sold. Given corruption I bet many thought it was the perfect crime.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian commander 'killed himself after learning 90% of his tanks are useless'
> 
> 
> Ukraine claimed that some tanks did not even have engines.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> metro.co.uk


Remember that time when a Russian warship had it's PROPELLER quietly stolen, for the value of the metals in it?  Then replaced by a much cheaper one, in the hopes nobody would notice?

Stealing items from tanks would probably be Day 1 of Corruption - Russian Edition


----------



## daftandbarmy

And I'm betting that the certificate wasn't received as the result of a mandatory online course either 


Javelin, NLAW operator destroys six Russian armored vehicles in one day​
Oleksandr, a Javelin and NLAW operator from Ukraine’s 128th Mountain Assault Brigade, destroyed six Russian armored vehicles in just one day.

"In February, I took NLAW anti-tank system operator course and received a certificate. And two days before the full-scale war, I started Javelin training. I've used Javelin nine times during the war. I destroyed eight targets and damaged one. Those were three tanks, five armored personnel vehicles, and one multi-purpose light-armored towing vehicle. I destroyed six of these targets in one day – March 3," the serviceman said, the 128th Separate Mountain Zakarpattia Brigade posted on Facebook, Ukrinform reports.









						Javelin, NLAW operator destroys six Russian armored vehicles in one day
					

Oleksandr, a Javelin and NLAW operator from Ukraine’s 128th Mountain Assault Brigade, destroyed six Russian armored vehicles in just one day. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## rmc_wannabe

daftandbarmy said:


> And I'm betting that the certificate wasn't received as the result of a mandatory online course either
> 
> 
> Javelin, NLAW operator destroys six Russian armored vehicles in one day​
> Oleksandr, a Javelin and NLAW operator from Ukraine’s 128th Mountain Assault Brigade, destroyed six Russian armored vehicles in just one day.
> 
> "In February, I took NLAW anti-tank system operator course and received a certificate. And two days before the full-scale war, I started Javelin training. I've used Javelin nine times during the war. I destroyed eight targets and damaged one. Those were three tanks, five armored personnel vehicles, and one multi-purpose light-armored towing vehicle. I destroyed six of these targets in one day – March 3," the serviceman said, the 128th Separate Mountain Zakarpattia Brigade posted on Facebook, Ukrinform reports.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Javelin, NLAW operator destroys six Russian armored vehicles in one day
> 
> 
> Oleksandr, a Javelin and NLAW operator from Ukraine’s 128th Mountain Assault Brigade, destroyed six Russian armored vehicles in just one day. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net


If it's not uploaded in Monitor MASS, you're not qualified 😉


----------



## MilEME09

rmc_wannabe said:


> If it's not uploaded in Monitor MASS, you're not qualified 😉


But did he complete his DLN?


----------



## kev994

MilEME09 said:


> But did he complete his DLN?


If he didn’t do his ethics conversation he’s going to have to take a time out.


----------



## MilEME09

Russia loosing ground in Kharkiv

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520448810237009921


----------



## The Bread Guy

While the men are away fighting ...








						'A huge demand': Ukrainian women train to clear landmines
					

PEJA, Kosovo (AP) — Learning to identify and defuse explosives is something Anastasiia Minchukova never thought she would have to do as an English teacher in Ukraine. Yet there she was wearing a face shield, armed with a landmine detector and venturing into a field dotted with danger warnings.




					apnews.com


----------



## MilEME09

So the UN evacuation of civilians is underway but according to commander of Azov in Mariupol, the UN is not allowing the wounded troops to be evacuated as well. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520467943276044299


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> So the UN evacuation of civilians is underway but according to commander of Azov in Mariupol, the UN is not allowing the wounded troops to be evacuated as well.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520467943276044299


It make sense from an international law perspective unfortunately.  

Evacuating wounded combatants would make the UN a participant in the conflict.


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> It make sense from an international law perspective unfortunately.
> 
> Evacuating wounded combatants would make the UN a participant in the conflict.


Well as long as the civis make it out.


Meanwhile another Russian General has reportedly been killed.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520475004139446272


----------



## The Bread Guy

So, how well has this Tweet from 2014 aged?  Discuss ...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/459342623044820992


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> Well as long as the civis make it out.
> 
> 
> Meanwhile another Russian General has reportedly been killed.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520475004139446272


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

The Bread Guy said:


> So, how well has this Tweet from 2014 aged?  Discuss ...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/459342623044820992


Everything summed up so well in one cartoon!  Well done!


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> So the UN evacuation of civilians is underway but according to commander of Azov in Mariupol, the UN is not allowing the wounded troops to be evacuated as well.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520467943276044299


Usual initial reports caveats apply ...








						20 civilians evacuated from Azovstal – Palamar
					

20 civilians, including women and children, have been evacuated from the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, which has been destroyed by Russian shelling. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				











						Twenty civilians leave Mariupol’s Azovstal site: Ukraine regiment
					

A group of 20 civilians are leaving the Azovstal steelworks, where the last Ukrainian troops are holed up in the Black Sea port of Mariupol, the soldiers




					english.alarabiya.net


----------



## McG

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Evacuating wounded combatants would make the UN a participant in the conflict.


It would not make them a participant any more than evacuating civilians. However, the Russians would be able to drag all the wounded soldiers out of the convoy and make them POW within the laws of armed conflict.

If you think Russia will also follow the laws of war and provide appropriate medical care to POW, then maybe you would be okay with the Russians taking the injured soldiers. 

But, transporting wounded soldiers could undermine what ever arrangement was made for Russia to allow the evacuation. This would result in nobody getting out.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

McG said:


> It would not make them a participant any more than evacuating civilians. However, the Russians would be able to drag all the wounded soldiers out of the convoy and make them POW within the laws of armed conflict.
> 
> If you think Russia will also follow the laws of war and provide appropriate medical care to POW, then maybe you would be okay with the Russians taking the injured soldiers.


It would make them a participant, they are helping combatants escape the conflict.  They are there to help civilians, not give aide to combatants. 

As for surrender, maybe Azov should surrender?  The alternative is they die from disease or some other way in Azovstal so maybe it's time?  

That's their decision to make though.


McG said:


> But, transporting wounded soldiers could undermine what ever arrangement was made for Russia to allow the evacuation. This would result in nobody getting out.


Exactly, it's important that the UN doesn't choose sides.  Helping civilians is one thing, helping combatants is another.


----------



## McG

Casualties are hors de combat. They are no longer combatants.


----------



## Kirkhill

Some Reddit catches


Possible loss of Izyum sector Command and the death of a VDV Major General (76th Div?)


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ufgl3x


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ufg4ex


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/ufgxn8


Troubles at home

Freedom of Russia Legion recruiting for the Ukrainians in Moscow.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ufa2ha

And another in the Series of Unfortunate Events


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uf7uiw



And a video on the tactical employment of the Javelin on a driech and dismal day by the SBU infantry


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ufb4ut



> The Security Service of Ukraine (Ukrainian: Служба безпеки України, romanized: Sluzhba bezpeky Ukrayiny) or SBU (Ukrainian: СБУ) is the law enforcement authority and main intelligence and security agency of the Ukrainian government, in the areas of counter-intelligence activity and combating terrorism.
> Preceding agency: KGB of the Ukrainian SSR
> Agency executive: Ivan Bakanov, Head of the ...
> Parent agency: President of Ukraine


----------



## Kirkhill

A Ukrainian father's terrifying journey to a Russian prison and back
					

Nikita Horban was abducted from his village and taken to Russia. He would come back without any toes.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Again, as is the case with all these "intercepts"  - take them as you find them.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ufa27y


----------



## MilEME09

McG said:


> Casualties are hors de combat. They are no longer combatants.


This was my understanding as well, they are no longer combatants, and thus humanitarian laws apply that Russia, or the UN would be required to care for them.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> ... As for surrender, maybe Azov should surrender?  The alternative is they die from disease or some other way in Azovstal so maybe it's time? ...


Knowing how badly Team USSR 2.0 wants to make an example of them (notwithstanding the fact that they'd make a great Victory Day parade float, we all know how folks - rightly or wrongly - labelled as "Nazis" are going to end up), maybe they'd _prefer_ die in Azovstal.

Meanwhile Kremlin OK's young volunteers who want to head west ...

Volunteering to do what?  Who's to say?


----------



## The Bread Guy

The Bread Guy said:


> It's 2022, and we have to have people assessing this question in Europe ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Legal Frameworks for Assessing the Use of Starvation in Ukraine
> 
> 
> A comprehensive analysis by leading legal expert on starvation and siege warfare, as that law applies to Russia's war in Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.justsecurity.org


I guess this is why the question has to be asked.








						Ukraine Accuses Russian Forces Of Stealing 'Hundreds Of Thousands' Of Tons Of Grain
					

Russian invading forces have stolen “several hundred thousand tons” of grain in territory they hold, Ukraine’s deputy agriculture minister said on April 30.




					www.rferl.org


----------



## Kirkhill

A Daily Telegraph report from the UK on the observations of a BBC employee who monitors Russian TV for a living.









						I monitor Russian state TV for a living - here's how Putin's propaganda is changing
					

As the war drags on, new narratives are emerging




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				







> I monitor Russian state TV for a living - here's how Putin's propaganda is changing​As the war drags on, new narratives are emerging
> 
> ByFrancis Scarr30 April 2022 • 11:48am
> 
> Every day since Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February, I’ve been immersed in the world of Russian state TV, tracking the narratives that are pushed to viewers across the world’s largest country.
> Nine years ago, when I began learning Russian at university, I’d not heard of either Vladimir Solovyov or Olga Skabeyeva, whose TV talk shows now dominate my working life as a media monitor.
> In a studio with enormous screens showing images of purportedly fallen Ukrainian soldiers, guests stand in a circle. An enormous Z – the letter that now symbolises Russia’s invasion – is emblazoned on the floor.
> Skabeyeva addresses the camera with relish:
> “The Ukrainians are crumbling in front of us! Everything our Western partners are telling us, the stories about how they’re winning the war, is an entirely pathetic attempt to support the Ukrainian army!”
> Every day, for hours on end across Russia’s three main channels, Skabeyeva and her colleagues tell me that the conflict is going “according to plan” and that its objectives of “demilitarising and de-Nazifying” Ukraine will be “fully achieved”.
> Advertisement
> 
> But the longer Putin’s “special military operation” drags on, the more often I hear excuses. This was meant to be a blitzkrieg lasting days. We’re now in the conflict’s third month.
> 
> Russians are told that their troops exercise restraint, with Ukraine repeatedly accused of using civilians as human shields.
> “In such conditions we naturally have to act quite carefully, and that is indeed extending the length of the campaign,” Vyacheslav Nikonov, an MP for the Kremlin-backed United Russia party, told viewers of his own talk show, The Great Game.
> Nikonov, whose grandfather was Stalin’s foreign minister Vyacheslav Molotov, claimed that Russian forces were acting with “nobility”, something that “simply does not exist in the West”.
> One justification for the lack of a swift victory now pervades every show – Russia is no longer fighting just Ukraine. Instead, it is defending itself from a much more formidable enemy in the guise of NATO.
> “When we see the difficult events now unfolding, and our losses, we need to realise that we’re no longer fighting Ukraine!” Simonyan cries, appearing on Evening with Vladimir Solovyov. “We’re fighting Nato, an enormous armed opponent!”
> Margarita Simonyan, the head of the international state broadcaster RT, who often appears as a guest on these programmes, has gone further, saying that it was likely the conflict would spiral into a nuclear “World War Three.”
> "The most incredible outcome, that all this will end with a nuclear strike, seems more probable to me than the other course of events,” she told millions of viewers this week. Both Simonyan and Skabeyeva have been sanctioned by the EU for their role in undermining the “territorial integrity” of Ukraine.
> Since Putin rose to power, the Kremlin has encouraged the public to ignore what the government is up to and focus instead on their own lives.
> Apathy has long been most Russians’ default attitude towards their rulers’ actions. Whenever Moscow stood accused of malign activity – shooting down Flight MH17 in 2014, the Salisbury poisonings of 2018, or recent atrocities in the town of Bucha – state TV bombarded them with disinformation and conspiracy theories. They were not presented with a single counter-argument around which to rally but encouraged to question the very existence of an objective truth.
> 
> Around 70 per cent of Russians use state TV as their main source of news, according to pollsters CREDIT: Gavriil Grigorov/TASS
> That’s now changing. State TV is mobilising the population in a way not seen before under Putin. Russians are told they face an existential threat from a West out to destroy their country.
> TV urges Russians to back their president, or as he is now more frequently known, the “supreme commander-in-chief”.
> Celebrities opposing the war are decried as “traitors”.
> Viewers are desensitised to the violence committed by their sons, brothers and husbands in Ukraine, but such a process does not happen overnight.
> While claims of Ukrainians being Nazis are new to most outside Russia, for the 70 per cent or so of Russians said by pollsters to turn to state TV as their main source of news, it’s a well-established fact.
> Ever since Ukraine’s pro-European revolution in 2014 and Russia’s subsequent annexation of Crimea, state TV has gradually conditioned people to see Ukrainians as inferior. I’ve seen this play out with people I hold dear.
> I recently received a call from a Russian friend. As part of my degree I spent a year in the city of Yekaterinburg, a two-hour flight east of Moscow.
> There I met Viktor, in his fifties, who welcomed me into his family. I spent many a weekend at his _dacha _honing my colloquial Russian and grew to love his simpler way of life, chopping firewood and foraging for mushrooms in the nearby forest.
> We always steered clear of politics, but now he inevitably asks me how I’m finding my job.
> I try to answer with a curt “all right, thanks”, but he persists. “We’re glued to our TV. Our boys are fighting the Nazis in Ukraine. But things are fine here. We’re not feeling your sanctions yet,” he chuckles.
> How do I feel at the end of a day spent watching such vitriol? It’s chastening to hear nuclear war mentioned almost daily. But when listening to such bellicose rhetoric I retreat into a state of emotional detachment.
> Only when I step away from my screen am I confronted with the horror of the suffering in Ukraine.
> I recently acted as an interpreter for a BBC radio interview with a wedding photographer who had successfully escaped the besieged city of Mariupol.
> He spoke of people drinking from puddles and of rotting bodies that went unburied because of the shelling.
> This is a war being waged with bullets and artillery. But it began years ago, on Russian TV.
> 
> _Francis Scarr is a journalist with BBC Monitoring, which reports and analyses news from media around the world._


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> I guess this is why the question has to be asked.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine Accuses Russian Forces Of Stealing 'Hundreds Of Thousands' Of Tons Of Grain
> 
> 
> Russian invading forces have stolen “several hundred thousand tons” of grain in territory they hold, Ukraine’s deputy agriculture minister said on April 30.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rferl.org



But the Russians are doing their humanitarian best by moving mouths to food.  Voluntarily or involuntarily is apparently a matter of debate.









						Kremlin claims one million Ukrainians have been ‘evacuated’ into Russia
					

Ukraine says its citizens are being forcibly deported as brave local activists help 'hostages' flee Vladimir Putin's country




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				






> Kremlin claims one million Ukrainians have been ‘evacuated’ into Russia​Ukraine says its citizens are being forcibly deported as brave local activists help 'hostages' flee Vladimir Putin's country
> 
> ByNataliya Vasilyeva, RUSSIA CORRESPONDENT30 April 2022 • 9:01pm
> 
> Russian-backed separatist rebels in Ukraine have organised a stream of buses for locals, taking them to Russia
> More than one million Ukrainians have been moved into Russia since the start of the war, Russia’s foreign minister said on Saturday, offering the first official figure for the mass transfer of people from occupied cities such as Mariupol.
> Sergei Lavrov said the people were “evacuated” for their own good and given medical aid and assistance, but Kyiv has long claimed that its citizens are being forcibly deported to far-flung parts of the country or put in camps and used as “hostages”.
> Separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine and troops in Russian-occupied areas in southern Ukraine have organised a stream of buses for locals, often offering the only alternative to staying in the middle of a warzone.
> “The refugees are offered medical and psychological help,” Russia’s foreign minister told China’s Xinhua news agency, in an interview.
> He said that over 9,500 temporary facilities have been set up across Russia to host the new arrivals.
> 
> Officials in Ukraine earlier this month said about 800,000 people had been taken to Russia against their will, but that now appears to have been an underestimate.
> 
> Civilians trapped in Mariupol are evacuated in groups under the control of pro-Russian separatists CREDIT: Stringer/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
> In a speech to the UN Security Council at the time, Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine’s envoy, described the transfers as “kidnapping that requires a resolute response by the international community”, comparing it to similar tactics used in Nazi Germany during the Second World War.
> Temporary facilities in Russian border areas were already overflowing with Ukrainian refugees soon after the start of the war, with people often put on trains to far-flung regions.
> Speaking to The Telegraph at the time, many people said they had no money or even mobile phones with them and had little idea about whether they even had a choice about where they were going.
> In response, a few brave local activists have been helping Ukrainians leave Russia again so that they can join relatives in western Ukraine or elsewhere in Europe.
> Igor Zhulimov initially crowdfunded purchases of clothes and basic necessities for the 400 or so Mariupol residents who ended up being posted in a local sanatorium in Penza, more than 500km away from Ukraine
> ‘People do want to leave but a lot of them are worried’​But before long he was approached by a few asking how they could leave Russia. “People do want to leave but a lot of them are worried,” Mr Zhulimov told The Telegraph.
> Mr Zhulimov, a lawyer, had been told by the sanatorium’s administration earlier this month that the refugees “were free to go wherever they want.”
> So he and another activist crowdfunded train tickets to St Petersburg and then arranged for the Ukrainians to be met by local volunteers and escorted by car to the border with Estonia.
> By the end of April, the Penza activists had helped over 50 people leave the refugee camp. Mr Zhulimov said the scheme was a way for him and others to protest what he described as Russia’s “criminal” war in Ukraine.
> The volunteers, however, said on Saturday they were suspending their operations after one of the activists involved, Irina Gurskaya, was detained for a night in a police station following an anonymous complaint.
> Earlier this week, Mr Zhulimov’s car was vandalised and the front doors of the two activists’ home were were spray-painted with the phrase: “An accomplice of Ukrainian Nazis lives here.”
> Penza is far from the only Russian city receiving people from Mariupol.
> As the besieged southern port city was bombarded over the course of the last month, Moscow consistently blocked potential humanitarian corridors towards government-controlled parts of Ukraine, leaving hundreds of thousands of civilians trapped with no choice other than to take Russia’s help to flee east.
> Russian state news outlets reported on Saturday that 25 civilians, including six children, had been evacuated from the Azovstal steelworks – the last redoubt of Ukrainian resistance *– *although there was no confirmation from the UN or Kyiv. There are believed to be hundreds of soldiers and civilians sheltering in the plant in increasingly desperate conditions.
> The rest of the city has now fallen under Russian control.
> It emerged on Saturday that separatist troops had been distributing leaflets setting out new “rules of conduct” for living there, including ordering every resident to go through a “verification” process to make sure they are not “Ukrainian militia” if they want to stay in the city.
> Residents cannot withdraw cash or drive in Mariupol​The leaflet also tells residents that they cannot withdraw cash from their bank accounts or drive in the city, according to a copy published by an adviser to the mayor of Mariupol.
> “This is a perfect illustration of current and future realities in Mariupol under the Russian occupation regime. Restricted mobility, curtailed freedom, limited rights and utter ruin. Total control. True ghetto,” wrote Petro Andriushchenko.
> Lyudmila Denisova, Ukraine’s commissioner for human rights, said on Friday that all men from the outskirts of Mariupol were being taken to a filtration camp in a separatist-held area in Ukraine and kept there for a week before they were allowed back home.
> In order to return, they must show papers proving they have been vetted by a filtration camp and documents proving their registered address in the city, Ms Denisova said.
> Not everyone is allowed to return.
> Last month, a well-known Ukrainian paramedic was kidnapped while on her way to save survivors of the Mariupol theatre bombing.
> 
> A Russian soldiers stands guard as humanitarian aid is distributed in Mariupol CREDIT: Sergei Ilnitsky/Shutterstock
> Julia Paevska, founder of a volunteer ambulance corps, was snatched by Russian troops after she stopped to treat a wounded civilian on March 16, her teenage daughter told the Telegraph. Anna-Sophia Puzanova, who is now in Brussels, said she has not heard from her mother since and has no idea where she is being held. She has been seen in Russian propaganda videos, Ms Puzanova said.
> Such stories add to fears that Russia is using Ukrainians in territory it captures as hostages for prisoner exchanges.
> Iryna Vereshchuk, Ukraine's deputy prime minister, said on Saturday that Ukraine had secured the release of 14 people, half civilians and half soldiers, including a female officer who is five months pregnant.
> She did not reveal how many Russians troops had been returned to Moscow.
> “We know there are more than a thousand hostages there [in Russia] *– *including almost 500 women,” Ms Vereshchuk told the BBC on Friday, adding that they were being held in prisons and pre-trial detention centres.
> “That’s why they captured all these hostages *– *civilians, women, employees of local councils, to try and use them.”
> Ms Paevska is on a list of prisoners of war the Ukrainian government is willing to swap for captured Russians, but Moscow has repeatedly refused requests for her exchange.
> People are not the only thing that Russia is accused of taking from the areas of Ukraine that its troops have occupied.
> Ukraine’s deputy agriculture minister said on Saturday that “several hundred thousand tonnes of grain” had been stolen. Earlier this week, authorities in Mariupol said over 2,000 artworks from the city’s art museum, including paintings by 19th century masters Arkhip Kuindzhi and Ivan Aivazovsky have been taken to separatist-controlled Donetsk.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:


> But the Russians are doing their humanitarian best by moving mouths to food without offering the alternative to head west instead of east ....


The RUS info-machine keeps forgetting to mention that bit in yellow


----------



## CBH99

This is an aspect of the conflict that, for me anyway, flew totally under my radar.  

With such huge numbers of civilians caught in the mass Russian blitzkrieg that rolled across the border, and the intense fighting in numerous cities & areas, I’d have assumed that _some_ civilians had ended up in Russia.  Whether voluntarily or involuntarily, I thought it safe to assume some ended up in Russia.  

But 800,000+ Ukrainian citizens, many of them alleging they were taken against their will?  

What crime/legal framework would this even fall under?  Mass abduction?  😕🤷🏼‍♂️


----------



## TacticalTea

CBH99 said:


> This is an aspect of the conflict that, for me anyway, flew totally under my radar.
> 
> With such huge numbers of civilians caught in the mass Russian blitzkrieg that rolled across the border, and the intense fighting in numerous cities & areas, I’d have assumed that _some_ civilians had ended up in Russia.  Whether voluntarily or involuntarily, I thought it safe to assume some ended up in Russia.
> 
> But 800,000+ Ukrainian citizens, many of them alleging they were taken against their will?
> 
> What crime/legal framework would this even fall under?  Mass abduction?  😕🤷🏼‍♂️


Definition​Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide​*Article II*
_In the present Convention, genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:_

Killing members of the group;
Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.
United Nations Office on Genocide Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect 🇺🇳

Secondary source on the matter, plus, the grain issue as brought up above, from infiltrating Kherson and conversing with locals: 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520495256076271624


----------



## Kirkhill

‘You’ll help us find others’: Ukrainian rape victim ordered to help Russian troops hunt for women
					

Anna describes how she was forced to find victims as drunken soldiers conducted a night of murder and mayhem in her small Ukrainian village




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				






> ‘You’ll help us find others’: Ukrainian rape victim ordered to help Russian troops hunt for women​Anna describes how she was forced to find victims as drunken soldiers conducted a night of murder and mayhem in her small Ukrainian village
> 
> ByDanielle Sheridan, POLITICAL AND DEFENCE CORRESPONDENT, IN KYIV25 April 2022 • 8:39pm
> 
> Anna was told by her Russian rapist that if she disobeyed him, ‘she would be taken to the headquarters and made to serve all of the soldiers’ CREDIT: Paul Grover /for The Telegraph
> 
> The hunt for Ukrainian women to rape began at Anna's house.
> She had just fallen asleep next to her husband on the kitchen floor of their home in a small village near Borodyanka when the Russian soldiers started banging on her door.
> Anna dragged herself off the mattress in the only room warm enough to sleep in since the electricity in the village was cut off, and opened the door.
> She had already encountered the three men standing in front of her. Sasha, the commander, and Oleh and Dania, two younger soldiers, had torn her front door from its hinges earlier that day as they forced their way into her home to loot laptops and mobile phones.
> She had gone to bed hoping that was the worst of it. She was wrong.
> “You will come with us to find other women,” they ordered her, before shoving a gun into her husband’s back and telling him he would be taken to the Russians’ headquarters.
> 
> Terrified of the weapons the soldiers held, and conscious of the fact they had been drinking, Anna and Alex were separated as she was marched into the pitch-black street on March 9.
> 
> Russian soldiers had ripped out Anna’s front door and forced their way into her home to loot laptops and mobile phones CREDIT: Paul Grover for The Telegraph
> Then they went around her neighbours and forced Anna to knock on each door and enquire who was inside.
> At the first door, the Russians made their intentions clear to the man who opened it. “They said they wanted to take his woman,” Anna told The Telegraph.
> However, upon inspection, the men decided they would leave her. “She will not feed us,” they said.
> Dania, the youngest, grabbed Anna by the hood of her coat and dragged her back into the street, where she was instructed to knock on another door.
> By this point, she was paralysed with fear. The Russians had started arguing amongst themselves, and in the commotion became separated from the commander. Now it was just Anna and the two younger men.
> When they knocked on the final door, the husband of their next victim tried to prevent the men from entering.
> “They told him to ‘get back, we will take your woman’,” Anna said, grimacing. “When he refused, they shot him dead in front of me.”
> The young men then marched the women to an abandoned house and forced them to climb through a broken window. When Anna hesitated, worried that she would cut herself on the shards of glass, her rapist pushed her through it, berating her.
> “They were being rude to us,” Anna said, remembering derogatory remarks they had made about their “feed”. “The Russians were talking to each other and complaining: ‘One is 41 and the other is 43,’ and the other said: ‘Well, what can we do?’”
> 
> The ordeal to which Anna was subjected has left her with severe anxiety CREDIT: Paul Grover/for The Telegraph
> “I was afraid,” she said, as she watched the other woman being led upstairs, leaving her alone with Dania. She begged him not to attack her. “I asked him how old he was,” she remembered, shaking as she thought back to the moment he “did terrible things to me”.
> “He told me he was 19 and I said to him that I could be his mother, that I have a son his age. I asked him how old his mother was, but he would not answer me. I think she was my age.”
> After Dania raped her, he threatened Anna that, if she disobeyed him, she “would be taken to the headquarters and made to serve all of the soldiers”.
> But when he left the room in search of his friend, she decided to take her chances and run. By now it was past midnight and she was screaming her husband’s name as she ran down the street. She went to a neighbour who tried to calm her and persuade her to lie down and rest, but she could not.
> Hysterical, she went back into the street, aware that if the Russians found her she would be taken away again – or killed. She returned to her house, where she heard her husband whisper her name.
> Alex was hiding on the roof. She climbed up onto the uneven, corrugated iron and lay next to her husband in the freezing cold, where they stayed until daylight.
> Hundreds of women had been raped by Russian soldiers, Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, said last week.
> The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe said that the war has seen a rise in “gender-based violence, such as rape, sexual violence or sexual harassment”.
> Ukrainian police forces have said they are only officially prosecuting 10 cases of rape so far. However, Kateryna Pavlichenko, the country’s deputy interior minister, told The Telegraph this was likely to be just the “tip of the iceberg”.
> 
> Rape is a routine tactic to hurt civilians, Kateryna Pavlichenko, Ukraine’s deputy interior minister, has said CREDIT: Paul Grover/for The Telegraph
> Russians are believed to have burnt the corpses of many their victims, in turn destroying evidence of rape.
> “For Russians, it is a routine tactic,” Ms Pavlichenko said. “We saw them use similar tactics in Chechnya and Syria. Russians rape to destabilise civilians.”
> She said that Ukraine had established specialist teams for investigating rape in the wake of the war. The teams, made up of 20 people ranging from psychologists to police officers trained to speak with children, will comb the villages in the Kyiv region that were under Russian occupation to find evidence.
> Such is the complexity of the situation that the teams will keep returning to villages to allow victims to come forward when they may not have felt comfortable before. The scheme will be rolled out throughout the country to reflect the prolific nature of the systemic raping of Ukrainian citizens during the invasion.
> “It is a problem that people do not want to admit what has happened to them,” she added. “We are trying not to press them so as not to re-traumatise them. But we try to explain that if they share their story, it will help to tell the world the atrocities that the Russians committed in Ukraine.”
> Ms Pavlichenko added: “Rape is the hardest crime to talk about. People want to forget it so the scale could be much bigger than we will ever know.”
> The rape and murder that Anna was subjected to that night has left her with severe anxiety. If a dog barks, she jumps, and she still worries that the Russians will return and find her.
> “Only a few people have told about being sexually assaulted because they are scared,” Anna said. “I am also scared.”
> She has since visited a doctor, who has confirmed she is healthy and not pregnant.
> When The Telegraph visited Anna, it was the day before her 42nd birthday and she was quietly preparing a meal that she would enjoy with her husband the next day in their now-liberated village.
> “Now I feel like a wild animal and I am living in hell,” she said, before bursting into tears. “I am not crying about the rape. We need to win. Help us with more weapons. They are killing our children. They need to help us.”
> _All victims' names have been changed_


----------



## Kirkhill

And meanwhile, back in Canada

John Ivison, Sabrina Maddeau and Terry Glavin, all sanctioned by Putin, talk about their sanctions, the effect on their ability to travel to places like Hong Kong and Turkey, and the CBRN rhetoric coming out of Russia.

More interesting is the reputation Canada has developed as a haven and transit point for oligarchs, kleptocrats and illegitimate businesses from all over the world.









						Ivison: From Russia with not much love
					

PLUS, What is the end game for the West in the Ukraine conflict




					nationalpost.com
				




Sorry if you don't have access.


----------



## Kirkhill

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520313940688912384


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505563536403091464


> My view of war is in many ways profoundly boring. War is a struggle about the control of communications--which run from the raw materials needed to produce a good until that good is delivered to the battlefield.
> 
> It argues that the focus on bravery/cowardice of destruction/tragedy while compelling as a human story, tells us nothing of value about why wars are won and lost.
> 
> My most well known book outlined this thesis for World War II, and is entitled How the War was Won (Cambridge Univ Press, 2015). Its brutally long at 250,000 words so dont read it unless your a masochist. Here is a brief summary.





> Allied victory in WWII is usually viewed through the lens of large land battles, from Stalingrad to Kursk to D-Day. However, battlefield losses of equipment in these ‘great’ land battles were relatively small and easily replaceable. This column demonstrates that the real effort of the major powers was put into the construction of air and sea weapons. The Allies used their air and sea power to destroy the Axis’s in a multi-layered campaign. This was the true battlefield of WWII: a massive air-sea super battlefield that stretched for thousands of miles. Victory in this super-battlefield led to victory in the war.





Key elements from his introduction to his book
Battle of Kursk July 5, 1943
German Operation Citadel
"Largest tank battle in human history" (Did aliens or apes have tanks? - Nevermind)
7000-8000 tanks involved on both sides
2,000,000 soldiers
Germany retreated on 16 July after 11 days of combat

Germany lost 350 tanks and other AFVs in 10 days
Germany produced 12,000 AFVs in 1943 or 1000 a month of 32  a day.
32 AFVs per day x 11 days = 352 AFVs
In other words Gerrmany lost exactly as many tanks at Kursk as it manufactured during the course of the battle. - Sustainable losses.

In July and August of 1943 Germany lost 1331 AFVs or 41 days of production over the 62 days of summer combat.  In other words it produced more AFVs than it lost.  Again - Sustainable losses.

Compare that to the current situation loss rates are actually a little bit lower but not by an order of magnitude.  The number or troops involved are a lot lower, by an order of magnitude.  But the production rate of replacement vehicles is considerably smaller - and for the Russians it seems to have shrunk to zero.

Lines of communication,  supply routes, and keeping them filled, wins.

Curiously Ukraine's strategy has been to attack the Ground Lines of Communications.  This was true in Kyiv-Chernihiv-Sumy districts in the North and the opening campaign.  Dropping bridges and interdicting convoys seems to be a continuing theme.  And the campaign north of Kharkiv between Ody and Kupyansk seems to continue the theme still further.

Hold the nose.  Cut off the tail.






						How the war was won | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal
					

Allied victory in WWII is usually viewed through the lens of large land battles, from Stalingrad to Kursk to D-Day. However, battlefield losses of equipment in these ‘great’ land battles were relatively small and easily replaceable. This column demonstrates that the real effort of the major...




					voxeu.org


----------



## Kirkhill

Courtesy of O'Brien and related to the purported loss of the 2 CAA command center at Izyum and MGen Simonov of the VDV (76th Div?)


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520356410562953216


> Phillips P. OBrien
> 
> @PhillipsPOBrien
> ·
> 11h
> 
> Another worrying sign for the Russians are growing reports (and pictures) of accurate, long range artillery fire by the Ukrainians. Considering Ukr artillery capabilities should grow over the coming weeks, this will add to Russian losses.


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ufk6oq


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uffnhu


----------



## Kirkhill

And a significant swing in German opinion.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ufiy80


----------



## MilEME09

Putin has turned Serbia against him with one sentence 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519670455153704961


----------



## Kirkhill

Too bad we don't have anything like that to donate.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ufkqxv


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ufju4w


----------



## Kirkhill

> The Command notes that the air defense units of the Land Forces are improving their skills. An increasing number of soldiers master domestic and foreign MANPADS.
> 
> "The enemy Su-25 jets were shot down by Stinger man-portable air-defense system," the report reads.











						Ukraine’s Armed Forces destroy nine enemy air targets
					

The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed nine enemy air targets over the past day. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Jarnhamar

I heard Putin was so impressed with Amber Heards lawyers that he's going to hire them to defend him against war crime allegations


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520542063116365827


----------



## Zipperhead99

MilEME09 said:


> Putin has turned Serbia against him with one sentence
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519670455153704961


Is this a sign that Putin is indeed losing it??  Why on Earth would he say such a thing and piss off a long-time ally??


----------



## Zipperhead99

ISW assessment for 30 April






						Institute for the Study of War
					

Further Russian reinforcements to the Izyum axis are unlikely to enable stalled Russian forces to achieve substantial advances. Elements of unspecified Eastern Military District units and several air-defense assets are reportedly deploying from Belgorod




					www.understandingwar.org


----------



## NavyShooter

http://www.admiraltytrilogy.com/read/Moskva_Damage.pdf
		


An interesting analysis of the loss of the Moskova.

I was onboard the Marshall Ustinov when she visited Halifax in ~1993/4 and it was interesting to observe that all the SAM launchers were painted shut, and there were a number of...well...flawed welds that I was able to observe.  Basically, consider tossing a couple of plates of steel together and see that you've left a gap over an inch wide...and fix it by filling it with puddles of weld.  In thinking back, I don't recall much in terms of DC/Firefighting gear on the upper deck sections that I was able to visit.


----------



## MilEME09

Russian forces pushed another 2k back to the east if Kharkiv, this also gives Ukraine Control of the Main highway out if Kharkiv going east until this town.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520553838817595392


----------



## Kirkhill

Missiles to counter nukes









						Don't you dare, Putin! UK boosts arsenal to 260 nukes in response to Russia threat
					

THE UK is planning to boost its arsenal to up to 260 nukes in a huge show of force against Vladimir Putin.




					www.express.co.uk
				




Missiles to counter ships









						British missiles to down Putin's ships as horror war takes to sea with MORE weapons
					

BRITAIN WILL send anti-ship missiles to Ukraine to prevent a blockade of the Black Sea that could increase food prices.




					www.express.co.uk


----------



## Kirkhill

The continuing role of Starlink in Ukraine.









						Russia's Tanks Are Dying in Ukraine Thanks to Elon Musk
					

While Starlink is aiding Ukrainian efforts to target Russian tanks and to keep civilians connected to the world, Putin could strike back.




					www.19fortyfive.com


----------



## MilEME09

A bit more background on the Russian push to label the Azov as Nazi's or far right extremists 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520424737582759937


----------



## CBH99

Zipperhead99 said:


> Is this a sign that Putin is indeed losing it??  Why on Earth would he say such a thing and piss off a long-time ally??


My thoughts exactly.  

Putin has typically been one of the best informed, best spoken politicians whenever attending a G20 conference or something similar.  

He hasn’t achieved what he’s achieved by being intellectually lazy.  He’s smart, cunning, and has managed to be a major obstacle to US foreign policy when it suited Russia’s interests.  


This whole thing seems…weird.  Making the comments he’s made, like the above, or ordering certain actions & strategy moves in a war he surely must know he isn’t winning decisively.  

Maybe he has finally lost it.  Wouldn’t be impossible given the last few months.


----------



## TacticalTea

CBH99 said:


> My thoughts exactly.
> 
> Putin has typically been one of the best informed, best spoken politicians whenever attending a G20 conference or something similar.
> 
> He hasn’t achieved what he’s achieved by being intellectually lazy.  He’s smart, cunning, and has managed to be a major obstacle to US foreign policy when it suited Russia’s interests.
> 
> 
> This whole thing seems…weird.  Making the comments he’s made, like the above, or ordering certain actions & strategy moves in a war he surely must know he isn’t winning decisively.
> 
> Maybe he has finally lost it.  Wouldn’t be impossible given the last few months.


I share this sentiment.

But I prefer to shy away from speculation regarding mental health. It would be too easy to engage in the same sort of exercise towards people like Donald Trump and Joe Biden, and I find it not only distasteful but counterproductive.

So if Putin is failing to subjugate and starve Ukraine or a large part of it, and birth Novorossiya, then what is he achieving? Do his actions still make sense in their context from his perspective? What political forces is he fighting off? Are his concurrent activities (purges, centralization) in reaction to the war's developments, or premeditated and pretexted by the war?

I suspect May 9th will enlighten us a little.


----------



## Maxman1

MilEME09 said:


> honestly ours are not in good condition at all at this point, heck prior to Afghanistan  we had to weld steel plates to the underside of the hulls, why? they had been used, and abused so much that natural ware caused the hull to be only a few millimeters thick. If they are being turned into targets, they likely have everything stripped out already, bare hulls are useless to them.



I figured they would be too far gone at this point.


----------



## The Bread Guy

If you're trying to keep track of RUS officers not coming home from the #NotAWar, this Twitter feed gusts to a titch snarky ....

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520335254799753216... but maintains a tote board/spreadsheet & shares graphics now and then - here's the 29 Apr tote board (don't think it includes Simonov's alleged demise)


----------



## brihard

Jarnhamar said:


> I heard Putin was so impressed with Amber Heards lawyers that he's going to hire them to defend him against war crime allegations


Well, his army did shit the bed…


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520635733760950273

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520689494013493249


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> Possible loss of Izyum sector Command and the death of a VDV Major General (76th Div?)





Kirkhill said:


> Courtesy of O'Brien and related to the purported loss of the 2 CAA command center at Izyum and MGen Simonov of the VDV (76th Div?)




Major General Simonov, recently deceased, was not of the VDV.  I speculated wrongly.  That'll teach me to stay in my lane.  It should also be a reminder that you can't trust everything you read on the interweb.

Cheers.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:


> ... Possible loss of Izyum sector Command and the death of a VDV Major General (76th Div?) ...


If this advisor to UKR's interior minister's Twitter feed is to be believed, maybe not JUST one "beeg bozz" affected ...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520734072418545664


----------



## McG

That is a potential development worth watching.


----------



## Kirkhill

I'm not big on watching people die, nor on cute "headlines" or Benny Hill soundtracks  -  Even the Russian troops deserve to be treated with the dignity every other soldier expects when on the job.

But I put this video up because it speaks to something else.   It depicts one Russian tank in isolation.  There are a lot of similar videos of single tanks being targeted and destroyed, or of small packets (platoons-troops) being dealt with effectively.  This lack of other tanks, the lack of mass, the lack of infantry support - it is counter to what I understand of Soviet practice and the general abhorrence by tankers of penny-packeting.

Is this an indication of 

The Russians running out of tanks?
Precision strikes forcing the Russians to run in all directions looking for new tactics?
A lack of infantrymen to provide protection?
A tendency for infantrymen to stay away from the big noisy target that is liable to detonate catastrophically in their midst?


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ufxj46


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> If this advisor to UKR's interior minister's Twitter feed is to be believed, maybe not JUST one "beeg bozz" affected ...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520734072418545664



Apparently Maj Gen Simonov was an Electronic Warfare officer -  The Izyum HQ that was destroyed was apparently a 2 CAA facility.









						A Russian general who commanded electronic warfare units was killed in a strike that killed 100 soldiers, top Ukraine official says
					

Maj. Gen. Andrei Simonov was reportedly killed when Ukrainian forces bombarded a Russian command post near the city of Izyum.




					news.yahoo.com


----------



## Kirkhill

A nice summary of events to date.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ufw7wx


----------



## Kirkhill

And the pro-Russian "territorials" of Donetsk have been having a hard time of it since.   38% of the starting force killed or wounded.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ufu1mp

They have been pressing into service students and retirees.


----------



## Kirkhill

Russia disarming Ukrainian farmers.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ufss4p


----------



## McG

Info graphic for those who want to know how not to design a tank.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520476370752741384


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> I'm not big on watching people die, nor on cute "headlines" or Benny Hill soundtracks  -  Even the Russian troops deserve to be treated with the dignity every other soldier expects when on the job.
> 
> But I put this video up because it speaks to something else.   It depicts one Russian tank in isolation.  There are a lot of similar videos of single tanks being targeted and destroyed, or of small packets (platoons-troops) being dealt with effectively.  This lack of other tanks, the lack of mass, the lack of infantry support - it is counter to what I understand of Soviet practice and the general abhorrence by tankers of penny-packeting.
> 
> Is this an indication of
> 
> The Russians running out of tanks?
> Precision strikes forcing the Russians to run in all directions looking for new tactics?
> A lack of infantrymen to provide protection?
> A tendency for infantrymen to stay away from the big noisy target that is liable to detonate catastrophically in their midst?
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ufxj46


Each BTG has 10 tanks, so for 120 BTGs they started the war with that's 1200 tanks. Even OSINT confirmed losses are at about 600, or 50% of their starting tanks force. All their best stock is probably used up.


----------



## MilEME09

Another rail bridge in Russia down, these are significant because Russia's entire logistics train (pun intended) relies on rail networks 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520790215518044162


----------



## GR66

Kirkhill said:


> I'm not big on watching people die, nor on cute "headlines" or Benny Hill soundtracks  -  Even the Russian troops deserve to be treated with the dignity every other soldier expects when on the job.
> 
> But I put this video up because it speaks to something else.   It depicts one Russian tank in isolation.  There are a lot of similar videos of single tanks being targeted and destroyed, or of small packets (platoons-troops) being dealt with effectively.  This lack of other tanks, the lack of mass, the lack of infantry support - it is counter to what I understand of Soviet practice and the general abhorrence by tankers of penny-packeting.
> 
> Is this an indication of
> 
> The Russians running out of tanks?
> Precision strikes forcing the Russians to run in all directions looking for new tactics?
> A lack of infantrymen to provide protection?
> A tendency for infantrymen to stay away from the big noisy target that is liable to detonate catastrophically in their midst?
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ufxj46


Funny you should bring up the lack of infantry support as I was trying to find the time to post on this subject myself.  

I follow the excellent War on the Rocks podcast and they have been doing regular interviews with Michael Kofman, a Russia expert from the Centre for Naval Analyses (CNA).  In the most recent podcast he discusses the issue of the lack of infantry support for the Russian forces during this conflict.  Around the 31min mark he explains how the peacetime manning levels established for Russian units (typically 70/30 for line units and 85/15 for high readiness units) is the cause of the poor infantry support we're seeing from the Russian army.

Peacetime manning levels were based on the assumption that forces were primarily designed for a war with NATO which would see enough leadtime to be able to mobilize Reserves and bring units up to full manning before being deployed.  Because Putin has chosen to employ their forces without a general call-up of Reserves it means that units are fighting at their peacetime establishment rather than their full wartime (and doctrinal) establishment.  Since the units are deploying their full set of vehicles per unit it means that the manpower shortfalls are all coming out of the dismounted infantry.  That's why we're seeing IFVs with only maybe three dismounts per vehicle...not enough to provide proper infantry support for proper combined arms operations.  As units take combat losses they are able to replace the vehicles from Reserve stocks but they don't have the extra manpower to provide extra GIB's in addition to the crews to man the vehicles.

His suggestion is that IF Putin makes the decision to officially call up the Reserves (May 9th?) then once all of the Reserve manpower comes on line and takes up their war stocks (a couple of months required) then you would see a much more doctrinal approach by the Russians to combined arms operations with much greater infantry support available.

Before Kirkhill made his post in this thread bringing up the subject I was actually planning on posting my comments in the Force 2025 thread as I think the observations on peacetime vs wartime manning of units is extremely relevant to the Canadian Army.  It's quite possible that a rapid deployment by the Canadian Army in response to a crisis, or even a major (Brigade or multi-Battle Group) deployment might not prompt the Canadian Government to authorize mobilization of Reserves in time to integrate them prior to units going in to action.  We could face the same situation where we are putting under manned units into a fight where they simply don't have the manpower to fight the way they are doctrinally designed to fight.


----------



## MilEME09

Crime doesn't pay for Chechens 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520808061597892608


----------



## Kirkhill

GR66 said:


> Funny you should bring up the lack of infantry support as I was trying to find the time to post on this subject myself.
> 
> I follow the excellent War on the Rocks podcast and they have been doing regular interviews with Michael Kofman, a Russia expert from the Centre for Naval Analyses (CNA).  In the most recent podcast he discusses the issue of the lack of infantry support for the Russian forces during this conflict.  Around the 31min mark he explains how the peacetime manning levels established for Russian units (typically 70/30 for line units and 85/15 for high readiness units) is the cause of the poor infantry support we're seeing from the Russian army.
> 
> Peacetime manning levels were based on the assumption that forces were primarily designed for a war with NATO which would see enough leadtime to be able to mobilize Reserves and bring units up to full manning before being deployed.  Because Putin has chosen to employ their forces without a general call-up of Reserves it means that units are fighting at their peacetime establishment rather than their full wartime (and doctrinal) establishment.  Since the units are deploying their full set of vehicles per unit it means that the manpower shortfalls are all coming out of the dismounted infantry.  That's why we're seeing IFVs with only maybe three dismounts per vehicle...not enough to provide proper infantry support for proper combined arms operations.  As units take combat losses they are able to replace the vehicles from Reserve stocks but they don't have the extra manpower to provide extra GIB's in addition to the crews to man the vehicles.
> 
> His suggestion is that IF Putin makes the decision to officially call up the Reserves (May 9th?) then once all of the Reserve manpower comes on line and takes up their war stocks (a couple of months required) then you would see a much more doctrinal approach by the Russians to combined arms operations with much greater infantry support available.
> 
> Before Kirkhill made his post in this thread bringing up the subject I was actually planning on posting my comments in the Force 2025 thread as I think the observations on peacetime vs wartime manning of units is extremely relevant to the Canadian Army.  It's quite possible that a rapid deployment by the Canadian Army in response to a crisis, or even a major (Brigade or multi-Battle Group) deployment might not prompt the Canadian Government to authorize mobilization of Reserves in time to integrate them prior to units going in to action.  We could face the same situation where we are putting under manned units into a fight where they simply don't have the manpower to fight the way they are doctrinally designed to fight.



Following on from your observations - the way Putin has gone about this means that he has a diminished pool of experienced soldiers around which the reserves and conscripts can coalesce.  It seems to me he has made the problem that they Russian Army has with the lack of experienced Junior Officers and Sr NCOs into a worse problem.  There is likely to be nobody available to train, supervise and lead the new entries.


----------



## NavyShooter

Deep thought time.

Maybe Putin did all this on purpose to deliberately weaken the army, so as to protect his own power?

Was he worried about the strength of the Army and a possible power struggle displacing him, so he decided to use the army...and in doing so, gut it of experience, so that it would be incapable of acting against him?


----------



## ModlrMike

I don't think he's that Machiavelli.


----------



## OldSolduer

NavyShooter said:


> Deep thought time.
> 
> Maybe Putin did all this on purpose to deliberately weaken the army, so as to protect his own power?
> 
> Was he worried about the strength of the Army and a possible power struggle displacing him, so he decided to use the army...and in doing so, gut it of experience, so that it would be incapable of acting against him?



Perhaps.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Another tile in the "Where's Gerasimov?" mosaic ...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520757617437683713


----------



## The Bread Guy

NavyShooter said:


> Deep thought time.
> 
> Maybe Putin did all this on purpose to deliberately weaken the army, so as to protect his own power?
> 
> Was he worried about the strength of the Army and a possible power struggle displacing him, so he decided to use the army...and in doing so, gut it of experience, so that it would be incapable of acting against him?


Nothing's impossible, for sure, so the dial of possibility's always more than zero.

That said, though, if the Army is no longer on his side, and he's reportedly pissed with his int folks, and more than zero oligarchs reportedly underwhelmed at sanctions, who's left that thinks'll back him? The internal security forces? Is that enough? Other players out there propping him up?


----------



## McG

If it passes, this might send a message.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520784954967269376


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> Another tile in the "Where's Gerasimov?" mosaic ...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520757617437683713


20 officer's potentially killed, including a general, another general and many others wounded. The HQ hit was the 20th CAA which is coordinating the Izyum AO. This was a decapitation strike, once again. I am having doubts Russia has many competent officer's left. With an estimated 22 BTGs in the Izyum area, taking out their HQ, and causing chaos could enable Ukrainian counter offensives. Some sources are saying Ukraine wants to recapture Izyum, I don't see the conditions set for that yet though.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Fingers continue to be crossed ...








						Ukraine: safe passage operation out of Mariupol is ongoing
					

A convoy of buses and ambulances left on 29 April, travelled some 230 kilometres and reached the plant in Mariupol on Saturday morning, local time.This complex operation is conducted in coordination with the parties to the conflict and the United Nations.As a neutral and impartial humanitarian...




					www.icrc.org


----------



## Kirkhill

On Cicero's Sinews of War (via Phillips P. O'Brien).


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520835510519971840


----------



## Kirkhill

And the dog has caught its tail....   


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520846733764345859


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Kirkhill said:


> And the dog has caught its tail....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520846733764345859


Nixon was pushing for peace as well....


----------



## Kirkhill

Meanwhile, it is all Britain's fault - Fish and Chips are a Russian invention.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520673219182792704


----------



## Kirkhill

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520470522848493568


----------



## OceanBonfire




----------



## Kirkhill

The Daily Kos take









						Ukraine Update: Russia is stuck, and they can't even blame it on the mud
					

For the second straight day, Russia lost more ground than it gained. Ukraine is pushing Russian forces around Kharkiv toward the international border. Mark Sumner made this map for his last update—blue cities taken the last couple of days, yellow ones...




					www.dailykos.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Losing track of Russia's Series of Unfortunate Events.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520859285072265216


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> Losing track of Russia's Series of Unfortunate Events.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520859285072265216


Either Ukraine has Sabotage cells in Russia, or we are looking at the Russian opposition taking an active roll in this fight. Too many to just be accidents now


----------



## McG

Could be a little of both happening.


----------



## KevinB

McG said:


> Could be a little of both happening.


Or a bunch of other folks that Russia has pissed off over the years too.
  It is a pretty long list of folks that had some scores to settle while the Bear is otherwise occupied...


----------



## Booter

History of bombing and injuring themselves to gain population outrage/ buy in.

You really can never tell with them. Which means they should never get the benefit of the doubt. Which we have given them since 1997ish.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520897392534605826


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520897392534605826


Shit, why not? Invading one sovereign nation has worked out great for them so far. Why not another?


----------



## MilEME09

brihard said:


> Shit, why not? Invading one sovereign nation has worked out great for them so far. Why not another?


Would benefit Ukraine greatly, taking those Russian troops out, then maybe work a deal out with Moldova to have them garrison Odessa, freeing up Ukrainian brigades for the front


----------



## AlexanderM

Another Russian threat!


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520846423629213699


----------



## MilEME09

Hmmm interesting 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520762986410958850


----------



## kev994

MilEME09 said:


> Either Ukraine has Sabotage cells in Russia, or we are looking at the Russian opposition taking an active roll in this fight. Too many to just be accidents now


Didn’t Russia force something like 800,000 Ukrainians into different parts of Russia? They mobilized the sabotage cells.


----------



## TacticalTea

NavyShooter said:


> Deep thought time.
> 
> Maybe Putin did all this on purpose to deliberately weaken the army, so as to protect his own power?
> 
> Was he worried about the strength of the Army and a possible power struggle displacing him, so he decided to use the army...and in doing so, gut it of experience, so that it would be incapable of acting against him?


Yep! Precisely the sort of thing I was hinting to in my last comment about ''fighting off political forces''


McG said:


> If it passes, this might send a message.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520784954967269376


The AUMF is a crucial step and should absolutely be passed by both chambers. Russia needs to know that the American response would be swift and unrestricted.


KevinB said:


> Or a bunch of other folks that Russia has pissed off over the years too.
> It is a pretty long list of folks that had some scores to settle while the Bear is otherwise occupied...


And that is far more than an off the cuff remark! It has been speculated that this is an important factor in Russia's inability to redeploy more of its troops from the homefront and into Ukraine. Too many internal flashpoints.


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520897392534605826


A worrying but credible development. About a week ago, if memory serves, Russia destroyed a bridge connecting Ukraine to its bessarabian region (the land that lies between Moldova and the Black sea).

I wonder what forces Russia would have available to commit to this. Naval infantry freed up from declaring victory in Mariupol? Whatever's left of the VDV? Whoever it is, is in for a rough time, what with the provision of a flurry of western anti-ship missiles, rendering an amphibious assault just about impossible. 

Then there is, indeed, the question of Romanian involvement. Would this finally trigger the NATO-Russia confrontation by dragging in Romanian forces? If this is the subject of the May 9th announcement, it'll be... interesting.


----------



## daftandbarmy

AlexanderM said:


> Another Russian threat!
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520846423629213699


----------



## Czech_pivo

Trudeau’s Canada - Words not Deeds.

As allies visit Ukraine's capital, Canada's absence is being noticed​Canadian Embassy should not be among first out, last back in: former Ukrainian ambassador to Canada​In the month since Russia's retreat from Ukraine's north, the capital Kyiv has seen a frenzy of high-profile visitors: 11 prime ministers, Austria's chancellor, the U.S. secretaries of state and defence, its House speaker, the UN secretary-general — even Hollywood star Angelina Jolie.

Canada has not sent even a cabinet minister.

Ukraine has noticed.








						As allies visit Ukraine's capital, Canada's absence is being noticed
					

In the month since Russia's retreat from Ukraine's north, the capital Kyiv has seen a frenzy of high-profile visitors: 11 prime ministers, Austria's chancellor, the U.S. secretaries of state and defence, its House speaker, the UN secretary-general — even Hollywood star Angelina Jolie. Canada has...




					news.google.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

Czech_pivo said:


> Trudeau’s Canada - Words not Deeds.
> 
> As allies visit Ukraine's capital, Canada's absence is being noticed​Canadian Embassy should not be among first out, last back in: former Ukrainian ambassador to Canada​In the month since Russia's retreat from Ukraine's north, the capital Kyiv has seen a frenzy of high-profile visitors: 11 prime ministers, Austria's chancellor, the U.S. secretaries of state and defence, its House speaker, the UN secretary-general — even Hollywood star Angelina Jolie.
> 
> Canada has not sent even a cabinet minister.
> 
> Ukraine has noticed.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As allies visit Ukraine's capital, Canada's absence is being noticed
> 
> 
> In the month since Russia's retreat from Ukraine's north, the capital Kyiv has seen a frenzy of high-profile visitors: 11 prime ministers, Austria's chancellor, the U.S. secretaries of state and defence, its House speaker, the UN secretary-general — even Hollywood star Angelina Jolie. Canada has...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.google.com


----------



## MilEME09

TacticalTea said:


> A worrying but credible development. About a week ago, if memory serves, Russia destroyed a bridge connecting Ukraine to its bessarabian region (the land that lies between Moldova and the Black sea).
> 
> I wonder what forces Russia would have available to commit to this. Naval infantry freed up from declaring victory in Mariupol? Whatever's left of the VDV? Whoever it is, is in for a rough time, what with the provision of a flurry of western anti-ship missiles, rendering an amphibious assault just about impossible.
> 
> Then there is, indeed, the question of Romanian involvement. Would this finally trigger the NATO-Russia confrontation by dragging in Romanian forces? If this is the subject of the May 9th announcement, it'll be... interesting.


Any Russian commander would be suicidal to get that close to Odessa. Those troops are isolated and if used would be wiped out. Honestly I'm a bit surprised Ukraine hasn't hit the Russian troops in Transnistria already.


----------



## Kirkhill

> Within a week, Ukraine's Joint Forces repulsed 63 enemy attacks.
> 
> In total, over this time Ukrainian defenders destroyed 45 Russian tanks, 43 artillery systems, four special vehicles, 149 armored fighting vehicles, six special combat vehicles, three units of special engineering equipment, 68 motor vehicles, including eight fuel tankers and four anti-aircraft guns.
> 
> During the past week, air defense units shot down six planes, 32 unmanned aerial vehicles and two cruise missiles of Russian invaders.











						Ukrainian defenders destroy two enemy tanks, almost 20 Russian artillery systems in JFO area
					

In the area of the Joint Forces Operation, Ukrainian defenders destroyed two Russian tanks and almost 20 enemy artillery systems in the past day. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				




I believe the Joint Forces Operations area officially only applies to the Luhansk and Donetsk Regions.   Kharkiv, Kherson and Zaparozhzhia would be separate operational areas?  Maybe?

Either way within the week the Ukrainians have repelled at least 63 assaults and eliminated something like 4 or 5 BTGs.

They have also been having an impact on airspace.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ug8ssi


----------



## Kirkhill

What Does Ukraine's New Military Approach Toward the Donbas Mean?
					

Ukraine wants to reframe its approach to resolving the ongoing conflict with Russia. Beginning last month, the military is now in charge of ground




					www.atlanticcouncil.org


----------



## Kirkhill

I believe that Eastern Ukraine is reportedly separately to the Joint Forces Operations.









						Ukraine Army destroys 57 invaders, tank, over 20 units of enemy equipment in eastern Ukraine
					

Ukrainian defenders killed 57 Russian invaders and destroyed an enemy tank and more than 20 units of enemy equipment in the area of responsibility of the Operational and Tactical Group East. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				




There seems to be fewer tanks being destroyed and more artillery pieces these days.


----------



## daftandbarmy

If I were a betting man I'd be watching for a quick Russian land grab attempt, maybe an island or something, somewhere on the route out of Murmansk to the North Sea...


Denmark, Sweden summon Russian ambassadors over spy plane flight​_The move comes after both Swedish and Danish authorities reported a violation of their airspace by Russian plane._








						Denmark, Sweden summon Russian ambassadors over spy plane flight
					

The move comes after both Swedish and Danish authorities reported a violation of their airspace by Russian plane.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> Ukrainian defenders destroy two enemy tanks, almost 20 Russian artillery systems in JFO area
> 
> 
> In the area of the Joint Forces Operation, Ukrainian defenders destroyed two Russian tanks and almost 20 enemy artillery systems in the past day. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I believe the Joint Forces Operations area officially only applies to the Luhansk and Donetsk Regions.   Kharkiv, Kherson and Zaparozhzhia would be separate operational areas?  Maybe?
> 
> Either way within the week the Ukrainians have repelled at least 63 assaults and eliminated something like 4 or 5 BTGs.
> 
> They have also been having an impact on airspace.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ug8ssi


JFO is Donetsk and Luhansk, Operational Command South is everything south of the JFO, and Operational Command east covers Khakiv and Sumy Oblasts


----------



## Furniture

MilEME09 said:


> Any Russian commander would be suicidal to get that close to Odessa. Those troops are isolated and if used would be wiped out. Honestly I'm a bit surprised Ukraine hasn't hit the Russian troops in Transnistria already.


Transnistria has 20-25K troops of it's own as well as the Russians there. Why would Ukraine want to add another front to the war? Ukraine just needs to keep enough troops in the area to make an attack unappealing, which is less troops than would be required to attack, and hold hostile foreign territory.


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> JFO is Donetsk and Luhansk, Operational Command South is everything south of the JFO, and Operational Command east covers Khakiv and Sumy Oblasts


Thank you for that.


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> Any Russian commander would be suicidal to get that close to Odessa. Those troops are isolated and if used would be wiped out. Honestly I'm a bit surprised Ukraine hasn't hit the Russian troops in Transnistria already.


I tend to agree. But didn't Putin take personal command of operations a few days ago? Relevant thread lightly touches on this: 



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520887048063930368
I'll admit that this could well be a ploy to distract one group or another, like many other Russian psyops activities (namely, the chemical false flag narrative that's been ran over and over since early March), and not actually the prelude to anything.



daftandbarmy said:


>


Quoting myself, from yesterday... "Never fails to disappoint."


----------



## MilEME09

Furniture said:


> Transnistria has 20-25K troops of it's own as well as the Russians there. Why would Ukraine want to add another front to the war? Ukraine just needs to keep enough troops in the area to make an attack unappealing, which is less troops than would be required to attack, and hold hostile foreign territory.


20-25k but they are poorly trained reserves mostly, and even worse off equipment wise. Only they 2-5k Russian troops have any decent equipment. The rest is Soviet era, earlier posts I made showed off their kit and it looks straight out of the 50s or 60s


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> 20-25k but they are poorly trained reserves mostly, and even worse off equipment wise. Only they 2-5k Russian troops have any decent equipment. The rest is Soviet era, earlier posts I made showed off their kit and it looks straight out of the 50s or 60s



Moldovan President agrees ....


Moldova has no combat-ready army - Sandu​
Moldovan President *Maia Sandu* acknowledged that the country does not actually have a combat-ready army, and this situation must be changed. According to Newsmaker, she said this in a speech marking the 30th anniversary of the creation of the National Army General Staff and State Flag Day.

"For 30 years, the Moldovan army was left without equipment, without military hardware and fighting means. Now we are aware of the consequences," Maia Sandu said during the ceremony.

The President acknowledged that Moldova "does not have an effective shield against threats, because it has not developed a proper military capacity, it has not developed critical infrastructure and it has not developed social resilience.

She noted that, at the same time, Moldova's military, which participates in peacekeeping missions under the auspices of the UN and the OSCE, enjoys a reputation of professionals.

Maya Sandu said having a well-trained army gives the country self-confidence and freedom of strategic choice, and Moldova must make every effort to create a professional, modern force.









						Moldova has no combat-ready army - Sandu
					






					frontnews.eu


----------



## daftandbarmy

Zeller's must hate Russia right now...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520860160582946818


----------



## Kirkhill

One for the Gunners.









						How Western-supplied artillery can help Ukraine prevail in the Donbas
					

Alongside US-supplied ‘heavy’ weapons, there is hope that British-sent counter-battery radar will ‘completely erode’ Russian advantage




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				






> How Western-supplied artillery can help Ukraine prevail in the Donbas​Alongside US-supplied ‘heavy’ weapons, there is hope that British-sent counter-battery radar will ‘completely erode’ Russian advantage
> 
> ByDominic Nicholls, DEFENCE AND SECURITY EDITOR1 May 2022 • 3:31pm
> 
> 
> Stalin called artillery the “god of war”.
> The physical and psychological damage caused by the sudden arrival of high explosive rounds can shatter military formations.
> Defended positions and attackers alike can be devastated in a few seconds of chaos and carnage.
> As the war in Ukraine moves away from the urban areas of Kyiv and other cities towards the more open areas of the Donbas, artillery will once again become a dominating feature.
> The topography of the Donbas is likely to allow Russian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles the ability to use their firepower and mobility to much better effect than they have been able to so far in this war.
> Travelling at up to 30mph across broken ground – faster still on paved surfaces – tanks can fire accurately at dug-in Ukrainian positions from a mile away and be on top of them in less than two minutes.
> Anti-tank weapons will be useful in this fight, but reaction times and the ability to fire accurately will be severely tested, when tank shells are bursting around defenders’ heads.
> Advertisement
> 
> Artillery – or indirect fire to use the correct military term – will be critical in breaking up these assaulting formations before the Ukrainian positions are overrun.
> 
> Nicholas Drummond, a defence analyst, says artillery is still “king of the battlefield”.
> “It always was and in Ukraine it has shown why, more than ever,” he told The Telegraph.
> “Everybody thinks it’s all about destroying tanks in Ukraine. To a certain degree that’s true, but what really inflicted damage on the Russians and killed their combat power was artillery.”
> He’s not the only one to say so.
> A recent paper by the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), quoted a senior adviser to General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
> “Anti-tank missiles slowed the Russians down, but what killed them was our artillery,” he said. “That was what broke their units.”
> 
> Artillery fire is so devastating because “it comes out of nowhere,” Mr Drummond said, catching troops in the open or suddenly introducing vehicle casualties, leading to confusion and loss of momentum in the attack.
> Defending forces use artillery to break up attacking formations. Assaulting forces use the same systems to “creep forward” as their forces advance.
> “The last hundred metres is the most hotly contested area in warfare. Any advance needs to be covered.”
> After mortars, carried by the infantry and able to reach up to 10km, “tube” artillery (traditional single-barrel weapons) can hit targets up to around 40km. Rocket artillery of the Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) can strike with great precision out to around 150km.
> Specially designed Precision Guided Munitions, including loitering drones and cruise missiles, can destroy targets 1,400km away.
> The term “heavy” generally refers to tube artillery mounted on tracked vehicles – usually tank hulls – making them better able to cover all ground and keep up with tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.
> They typically fire 155mm rounds, almost identical to the 152mm shells in Ukrainian service.
> A 155mm shell landing on or directly next to a tank would completely destroy the vehicle. If it lands around 10 metres away, the tracks and gun would likely be damaged and the optics and other sensors on the outside of the turret would be ripped off, although the crew would probably survive.
> 
> Beyond that, a tank would be largely unaffected. Less well-protected vehicles, however, are extremely vulnerable to artillery at much greater distances.
> The US has pledged $165million (£127million) for “non-standard” ammunition, such as 152mm artillery shells.
> However, nowadays it is possible to rapidly compute where the rounds have been fired from and send shells back the other way.
> On the modern battlefield, so-called counter-battery fire can arrive within three minutes.
> In order to survive, military units need to keep moving and be dispersed, Mr Drummond said.
> Britain is sending MAMBA, a counter-battery radar, to Ukraine. It will allow Kyiv’s troops to find and destroy Russian artillery.
> Mr Drummond said if they can do that, Russia’s capability will be “completely eroded”.
> Russia has self-propelled artillery based on tank hulls, such as BM-21GRAD or TOS-1. They are capable of moving fast over virtually all terrain but “are not disciplined” to move within three minutes.
> “They feel they don’t need to as they don’t think the Ukrainians have the capability to hit them.”
> 
> The West is also sending modern indirect fire weapons to Ukraine, such as the Switchblade 600, a “kamikaze” loitering drone that can hunt targets then fly directly into them to detonate a warhead.
> However, loitering munitions are few in number and lack the shock effect of a huge weight of firepower landing on a target in a short space of time which is the advantage of traditional artillery systems.
> Western officials say the need for Ukrainian forces to be able to hit Russian targets at greater range in the battle for the Donbas is “critical”.
> Ukraine has asked the US for towed M777 howitzers,  M109 Paladin, a self-propelled weapon, multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) and the Switchblade 600.
> The M777, which was first used in combat in Afghanistan, and the older M109 are both 155mm guns, capable of hitting targets up to 30km away. The MLRS is more complex and expensive, but has greater range (standard ammunition will reach about 45km).
> France has promised to supply a dozen Caesar artillery systems, a 155mm gun mounted on a 6x6 wheeled truck. Caesar has a range of 40km and the truck can roam up to 600km before refuelling, making it very versatile on the battlefield.
> The Switchblade 600 drone can stay aloft for about 40 minutes, giving it a maximum range of about 40km, although this is likely to be lower as it would be used to circle an area looking for targets.
> Together, these weapons should enable Ukraine’s forces to stay in the fight for the Donbas, perhaps even prevail.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Finally someone legitimate actually calling out "Canadian Ukraine Volunteer" for being a LARPer and a dangerous one at that:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520789015074848768


----------



## McG

For the BTG counters:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520987841702080512


----------



## The Bread Guy

Well, then ...








						So what if Zelensky is Jewish, even Hitler had Jewish blood: Russian foreign minister
					

Israeli foreign minister slams Russia’s ‘unforgivable, scandalous and horrible historical error’




					www.independent.co.uk
				











						Israel denounces Lavrov's Hitler comments, summons Russian ambassador
					

Israel denounced on Monday Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov for suggesting that Nazi leader Adolf Hitler had Jewish roots, and demanded an apology from Moscow.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Like this guy says, do not believe _anything_ until the Kremin denies it (TM)


----------



## Furniture

MilEME09 said:


> 20-25k but they are poorly trained reserves mostly, and even worse off equipment wise. Only they 2-5k Russian troops have any decent equipment. The rest is Soviet era, earlier posts I made showed off their kit and it looks straight out of the 50s or 60s


You're right, which means they are pretty much incapable of attacking Ukraine in an effective way. That means Ukraine only has to have a relatively small number of forces in the region to make at attack from Transnistria unappealing, as the Russians don't have large numbers in Transnistria. 

If Ukraine launches an invasion of Transnistria to remove the Russians, they would need to draw tens of thousands of troops away from the main effort in the East. The last thing Ukraine needs is to launch an invasion of a neighbouring state, with too few troops, and find themselves in the same situation Russia is now in.

Lastly, right now Ukraine is an international darling, standing up to the evil aggression of Russia. If they launch an invasion of a "state" they are not already at war with, they are likely to see international support drop off. Ukraine has played a very smart PR war so far, I don't see them doing anything to risk their success in that domain.


----------



## lenaitch

daftandbarmy said:


> Zeller's must hate Russia right now...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520860160582946818


I wonder if they come in a burned-out or hood-up-out-of-gas versions.


----------



## Remius

lenaitch said:


> I wonder if they come in a burned-out or hood-up-out-of-gas versions.


I wouldn’t mind getting a UKR tractor toy.  I bet all the kids would prefer that.


----------



## MilEME09

Remius said:


> I wouldn’t mind getting a UKR tractor toy.  I bet all the kids would prefer that.


Would be like when the avro arrow model originally came out, Russian agents will by them up to try and get intelligence from the toy.


----------



## OldSolduer

MilEME09 said:


> Would be like when the avro arrow model originally came out, Russian agents will by them up to try and get intelligence from the toy.


In Russia you no play with toy, toy plays with you…


----------



## RaceAddict

The Bread Guy said:


> Another tile in the "Where's Gerasimov?" mosaic ...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520757617437683713



How is it that actual Russian generals manage to look like caricatures of Russian generals? 😂

Gerasimov could have been cast as the archetypal baddie is literally any 60s era cold war film.


----------



## daftandbarmy

RaceAddict said:


> How is it that actual Russian generals manage to look like caricatures of Russian generals? 😂
> 
> Gerasimov could have been cast as the archetypal baddie is literally any 60s era cold war film.



Or Archie Bunker...


----------



## Czech_pivo

daftandbarmy said:


> Zeller's must hate Russia right now...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520860160582946818


I wonder if I went on Alibaba if I could order these and have them shipped here to Canada? Maybe combine it with a John Deer tractor with Ukrainian colours on it to tow the truck?
Business opportunity?


----------



## TacticalTea

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Finally someone legitimate actually calling out "Canadian Ukraine Volunteer" for being a LARPer and a dangerous one at that:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520789015074848768


As always in such a context, gotta take everything with a grain of salt...

Conjectural, but more that supports this thesis: 



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520819862997766145


----------



## The Bread Guy

RaceAddict said:


> How is it that actual Russian generals manage to look like caricatures of Russian generals? 😂
> 
> Gerasimov could have been cast as the archetypal baddie is literally any 60s era cold war film.


#RussianBondVillans maybe?

To be fair to them, though, if anybody has a reason to be looking grumpier than usual these days, it's THEM!


----------



## MilEME09

TacticalTea said:


> As always in such a context, gotta take everything with a grain of salt...
> 
> Conjectural, but more that supports this thesis:
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520819862997766145


I didn't look deep into it until his Kherson infiltration story. Read more like a spy novel or movie plot, and not a good one. Even if it was true he admitted to committing a war crime, by wearing Russian uniforms.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521189773486047234


----------



## McG

Thoughts on Russia's use of heavy bombers in a carpet bombing role - it's not an escalation but rather a compensation.








						Russian heavy bombers over Ukraine – Why?
					

Recent flights by Russian strategic long-range bombers over the besieged city of Mariupol have drawn significant media attention.




					ukdefencejournal.org.uk


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Interesting article (In two parts) from the AdaptiveMobile Security website on the Mobile Network Battlefield in Ukraine.

The Mobile Network Battlefield in Ukraine - Part 1​
*Cathal McDaid*
29 MAR 2022

_Note: This blog was updated on the 4th of April to reflect recent new information from the SSSCIP on call blocking _
It has been nearly 5 weeks since Russia’s new invasion of Ukraine. Prior to the invasion on February 24th 2022, a number of observers worried or believed that the Russian offensive would involve co-ordinated large amounts of IT attacks on key infrastructure, including on Ukrainian communication networks. The effects of these attacks would have been globally widespread and publicly felt. However, headlines regarding cyberattacks since the invasion had been muted, although there have been some public reports on the use of cyberattacks on Ukrainian national critical infrastructure.
What has slipped many commentators by, however, has been the unprecedented involvement of mobile telecom networks in this conflict - especially in how they have been defended, maintained, and used. As a follow-up to our previous paper on the use of telecom networks in Hybrid warfare, we discuss here what has occurred since the Invasion. In this multi-part series of blogs we will first discuss what the Ukrainian mobile operator community did since the invasion, and the profound implications of the use of Telecom networks on the battlefield and in the wider conflict. In our 2nd blog, we then document the impact this war on our idea on cyber warfare, and then in our final blog what we can expect in the future in the conflict in the mobile telecom sphere.
The Ukrainian Mobile Operator Landscape​Even before the new invasion in 2022, and since then, the Ukrainian Mobile Operator Community have taken many massive and impactful steps to both defend their mobile networks, and to ensure its resilience. Before we go into detail on this, it is important first, to realise the extent of mobile penetration in Ukraine. Mobile phone ownership rates are at ~130% of the population, which means the vast majority of the population own a mobile phone. There are 3 main Ukrainian Mobile Operators: Kyivstar(26 million subscribers), Lifecell (10 million subscribers) and Vodafone Ukraine (19 million subscribers) along with an additional small mixed MNO/MVNO mobile operator called TriMob or 3Mob (0.3 million subs) which piggybacks on Vodafone Ukraine outside of Kyiv - and is the mobile wing of the fixed line incumbent operator Ukrtelecom.
Timeline​Many significant decisions and actions have been taken since the start of the new Russian invasion, but the timeline below outlines what we believe are the most significant ones:





On the day of the invasion (24th of February) - several key decisions were made. Firstly, the Ukrainian Telecom regulator (NKRZI) announced that they had allocated the three main Ukrainian operators additional 3G and 4G frequency bands. The stated purpose was to provide more capacity to locations where it was expected people would flee (urban areas and the western border areas), but this frequency increase was implemented countrywide, meaning the entire country would benefit from the extra capacity.
Also on that day the Ukrainian mobile operators and Ukrtelecom made the co-ordinated decision not to suspend any account in the event that any subscriber ran out of credit. This decision meant that everyone could stay in contact, even if they were in a position or situation where they could not obtain any additional credit (due to mobilisation to the army, unable to buy credit in a shop, or any other disruption). This decision was prompted by a request from the SSSCIP (_State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection of Ukraine_), also known as the DSSZZI, who are the technical security and intelligence service of Ukraine.
Finally, and most impactful from a security standpoint, on the night of the 24th/25th of February, all 3 main Ukrainian mobile operators, with the decision of the NKRZI, suspended all inbound roamers from Russia and Belarus. This was a profound security move, and unprecedented in that no country in the world has ever blocked all mobile phone users from neighbouring countries which with it had previous roaming agreements. Immediately, mobile subscribers from Russian and Belarusian mobile networks could not roam onto and use the Ukrainian networks. At a stroke this action wiped out a backup communications system for the Russian invasion forces. Also, at a cybersecurity level, this decision also made the Ukrainian core network attack surface (3G/4G) less vulnerable to known Russian-originated threat actors over the global SS7 and Diameter signaling protocol links.
On the 3rd of March, the Ukrainian mobile community took further security and resilience steps. The SSSCIP announced that Ukrainian mobile operators had made an additional security move to block all phone calls made from Ukraine to Russia and Belarus. As a result even if Ukrainian SIM cards came into possession of, or were being used by the invading Russian forces, then they could not be used to make phone calls to Russia. _UPDATE 04/04/2022: Despite the earlier SSSCIP announcement that this call blocking in place, according to an interview on the 2nd of April with Yuriy Shchyhol, Yurii ShchyholChairman of the SSSCIP - call blocking did not occur, instead, call eavesdropping of calls from Russian forces to Russia has been occurring on an on-going basis._
Next, on the 7th of March, _National Roaming_ was announced with all 3 mobile operators participating, in co-ordination with the SSSCIP and the NKRZI. The stated reason for this was to overcome disconnection from communication in the Kherson and part of the Nikolaev areas. However, the initial actual regions (oblasts) covered many eastern and central areas, and the implementation is then to be rolled out nationwide. This meant that mobile subscribers, for any one Ukrainian mobile network could now use the network for any of the other 2, for Voice and SMS.




_The logos used by Vodafone Ukraine, Lifecell, and Kyivstar respectively to announce National roaming. Source: Vodafone UA Lifecell, Kyivstar via facebook_
National roaming, also termed Emergency Roaming is a concept that has often been discussed for mobile phone networks, but again this was a world's first in that it never been implemented by any country for any extended period of time. Isolated cases in the past have included T-Mobile and AT&T sharing radio access in an ad-hoc manner after Hurricane Sandy in 2012. By doing this, the authorities have massively increased the ability for the Ukrainian population to use their mobile networks. This meant at a practical level, that even if one or 2 of the mobile operators had damaged or de-powered cell-towers in an area, as long as a single operator served an area any Ukrainian mobile phone subscriber could use it. National roaming was further enhanced on the 12th when limited 2G/3G internet was made available. This meant that people using the service could use popular messenger apps to communicate, as well as voice and SMS.
Finally, as a specific, important incident of mobile telecom security affecting the battlefield, on the 15th, the SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) announced the capture of a SIM Box. This was being used as a voice call relay from Russian forces' leadership in Ukraine, as well as being used to send text messages to local targets. This is an example of the use of Ukraine’s mobile phone network by the Invasion forces, and the ongoing battle to detect and secure it. Specifically the SBU quoted that the SIM Box had:

_made anonymous phone calls from Russia to the mobile phones of the invaders in Ukraine;_
_sent SMS to Ukrainian security officers and civil servants with proposals to surrender and side with the occupiers;_
_passed commands and instructions to advanced groups of Russian invaders._
_



_
Pictures of seized SIMBank+ 3 GSM Gateway(_s). Source: SBU via twitter_
It was also reported that up to a thousand calls a day were routed through this system, many from the “top leadership” of the Russian army. Its setup of a commercial, off the shelf Hypertone SIMBank, + several multiple Hypertone GSM Gateways and control software was used to relay phone calls made from mobile phones within Ukraine to IP, in order to send back to Russian addresses. This system looks to have been designed to avoid call interception by trying to 'blend in' i.e. by dialing in-country only, and then using IP to bypass the blocks on outbound calling to Russia. The use of a fragile system such as this seems to have been a forced development driven by the poor state of Russian military communications and the fact that Ukrainian mobile operators had blocked outbound calls and Russian subscribers, leaving very little room for the Russian forces to ‘move’ in having to setup a communication system like this.
Other Security and Resilience Steps​While these were large co-ordinated or impactful moves by the Ukrainian mobile community, there had been a constant series of other decisions made. These range from the large to small :

The Ukrainian mobile operators making free or greatly reduced roaming available for their subscribers who go to more and more countries in Europe. This has given those who have fled abroad the chance to communicate and stay in touch with those who are staying in Ukraine - which is a powerful psychological boost to both the defenders and those who have fled the country.
Ongoing improvements within the National roaming framework. Namely the addition of TriMob into the National roaming agreement with Lifecell on the 13th , and then with Kyivstar on the 17th of March.
Specific mobile network security decisions and actions, made by the Ukrainian mobile operator community, regulator and security service. Many of these have not been made public, but some that have been include:
The recommendation from the NKRZI on the 28th of February to block 642 ASs (autonomous systems) of the "RuNet", i.e. Russian internet, which together cover 48 million IP addresses. This was done to prevent cyberattacks of information disseminated from these sources over both fixed line and mobile networks.
Kyivstar blocking the receipt of all inbound SMS from Russia/Belarus, to prevent spam or fake information from mobile networks in these countries.
The reported on-going 'PsyOps' targeting , via text messages, of Russian soldiers who have been identified to posses Ukrainian SIMs. Those that have been identified are being sent SMS encouraging them to defect and surrender with details, as in this case which reportedly lead to a Russian Soldier deserting with his tank.
The constant ongoing search for other malicious telecom equipment. Two examples are on the 22nd of March the SBU announced the detection and seizure of a "network of bot farms located in the largest cities of Ukraine, including: Kyiv, Dnipro, Odesa, Vinnytsia". These SIM boxes had been sending out SMS messages aimed at fostering enmity within the Hungarian minority in the Transcarpathia area of Ukraine. Another detection by the SBU were the 5 bot farms on the 28th of March, where SIM boxes compromising over 100 SIM Gateways were used to sign up to social networks to "spread misinformation" and cause panic.

It would be remiss not to mention the on-going and heroic efforts of the Ukrainian mobile operator and equipment personnel to keep cell towers and their supporting critical infrastructure, connected and powered up. This has meant that the mobile networks have stayed functional for far longer than would normally be expected, in areas featuring destructive strikes on telecom infrastructure such as underground fibres and cell-towers, as well as power outages. 




Repairing of Telecom Fibre. Source: SSSCIP via twitter
There are multiple moves that Mobile Operators, and the state as a whole can take when preparing themselves for any conflict that may involve telecom networks.  Our previous paper on the use of telecom networks in Hybrid warfare covers many of these recommendations, however key principles are that these plans and techniques should be co-ordinated and in place prior to any situation in which they might be used. As can be seen when we review the above, Ukraine has been instrumental in co-ordinating and preparing their mobile networks to the position where they are today - a much stronger position than many observers may have expected before the conflict.  In our next blog we will discuss the impact of these security and resilience steps of the Ukrainian Mobile networks, and the effects these have had on the progression and course of the war itself.


MilEME09 said:


> I didn't look deep into it until his Kherson infiltration story. Read more like a spy novel or movie plot, and not a good one. Even if it was true he admitted to committing a war crime, by wearing Russian uniforms.


Yes, and if captured the Russians could have legitimately shot them as spies!


----------



## Gunnar

Remius said:


> I wouldn’t mind getting a UKR tractor toy. I bet all the kids would prefer that


Only problem is, they don’t work in Russia. (stolen Ukranian farm equipment is full of tech.  So it has often been remotely disabled by the manufacturer, like a stolen iPhone).


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521189773486047234


Excellent, Smithers!  More from AP 








						Want to contact CIA from Russia? Agency points to darknet
					

The CIA says Russians disaffected by Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine may be trying to get in touch with U.S. intelligence — and it wants them to go to the darknet.  The CIA has a darknet site that has the same features as its regular homepage but accessible only through the Tor internet...




					news.yahoo.com


----------



## Kirkhill

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521204817007456258


----------



## QV

Is the Cadieu topic off limits in this thread? I have not seen any discussion on the latest reports/allegations of his status in Ukr....


----------



## Underway

QV said:


> Is the Cadieu topic off limits in this thread? I have not seen any discussion on the latest reports/allegations of his status in Ukr....


He didn't even leave Canada until after the city was under siege allowing no one in or out.


----------



## Kirkhill

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
		



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521088587579949056


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukrainians appear to be applying a little more choke to the Russian Ground Lines of Communication north of Kharkiv.

Stariy Saltiv seems to have fallen, the Russians have blown a bridge and abandoned a bunch of vehicles.  That puts the Ukrainians closer to Velykyi Burluk and threatens the Izyum Salient supply lines through Kupyansk.



Kirkhill said:


> https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521088587579949056


----------



## Kirkhill

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521163752296660992


----------



## lenaitch

Gunnar said:


> Only problem is, they don’t work in Russia. (stolen Ukranian farm equipment is full of tech.  So it has often been remotely disabled by the manufacturer, like a stolen iPhone).











						Russians plunder $5M farm vehicles from Ukraine -- to find they've been remotely disabled | CNN
					

Russian troops in the occupied city of Melitopol have stolen all the equipment from a farm equipment dealership -- and shipped it to Chechnya, according to a Ukrainian businessman in the area.




					www.cnn.com
				




John Deere has been taking a lot of heat for the level of their proprietary tech that only they can service.  Maybe for once it is being used for good rather than evil.









						ONGOING COVERAGE: Right-to-Repair Impact on Dealers, Deere, Other OEMs
					

The Nebraska state legislature did not vote on LB-543, “The Right to Repair” bill.  State Senator Tom Brandt sponsored the bill earlier this year, but says the legislature simply ran out of time



					www.farm-equipment.com
				









						Agriculture Technology | Precision Ag | John Deere US
					

Learn how John Deere precision ag helps you farm even better.




					www.deere.com


----------



## Haggis

lenaitch said:


> John Deere has been taking a lot of heat for the level of their proprietary tech that only they can service.  Maybe for once it is being used for good rather than evil.


My cousin used to be the sales VP for eastern Europe about 20 years ago.  He said they built "employee kidnap and ransom" into the cost of every unit sold in his region of the World.


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> Ukrainians appear to be applying a little more choke to the Russian Ground Lines of Communication north of Kharkiv.
> 
> Stariy Saltiv seems to have fallen, the Russians have blown a bridge and abandoned a bunch of vehicles.  That puts the Ukrainians closer to Velykyi Burluk and threatens the Izyum Salient supply lines through Kupyansk.


Which also pushes UA arty closer to threatening those ground lines, once M777 and M270 get in there, it's open season. If this os true it means the Russian lines east of Kharkiv have completely collapsed. Russia will be forced to move forces from Izyum or Donetsk is order to stabilize the line. Which could stall the entire Russian offensive.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Those who know, know ...








						Mariupol Worse Than WWII Siege Of Leningrad, Says Ukrainian Holocaust Survivor
					

An 87-year-old Elvira Borts survived the Holocaust and Nazi siege of Leningrad but says the destruction of Mariupol by Russian forces is worse than what she experienced during World War II.




					www.rferl.org


----------



## MilEME09

This won't help Russia in the short term, long term it could wipe out a generation of Russians, if they declare war, the west will need to accelerate production and delivery if arms and ammunition, as we would have maybe two months before conscripts reach the front 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521257995866447873


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521115874752708609


----------



## Zipperhead99

some interesting analysis



			https://jamestown.org/program/escalation-of-lies-and-threats-leaves-putin-with-two-bad-choices/


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Tire made in the USSR on a destroyed Grad


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520750841279533059


----------



## Zipperhead99

MilEME09 said:


> This won't help Russia in the short term, long term it could wipe out a generation of Russians, if they declare war, the west will need to accelerate production and delivery if arms and ammunition, as we would have maybe two months before conscripts reach the front
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521257995866447873


Not sure how sending in conscripts with limited training is going to help Russia.  If their main forces are having such difficulty, you are right, it will wipe out a generation of Russians when that country is already suffering from a declining birth rate and ageing population


----------



## MilEME09




----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> The destruction of the Ukrainian radar for illumination and guidance of the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system by the Russian operational-tactical complex "Iskander-K" was published by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Deliveries of Western weapons to Ukraine continue. At the railway station in Stuttgart, Germany, a batch of military equipment sent to Ukraine was found. A German Pzh 2000 SPG equipped with a 155-mm cannon and an American MLRS m270 multiple launch rocket system were spotted on the platform. The Pzh 2000 self-propelled guns are considered one of the best, but there is one problem, the installation has a NATO caliber, so Ukraine will have to look for shells for this weapon in other countries, it does not produce such a caliber. With the MLRS m270 multiple launch rocket system adopted in 1983, the same problem, there are no missiles that are located in rechargeable containers in Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Tank battle of a Russian tank with the T-64 of Ukraine. As reported, the Ukrainian tank T-64BV decided to support the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine who took up defense in the hangars with fire. Having advanced to the battlefield, he fired several shots at the Russian tank and, having missed, decided to retreat. By return fire from a Russian tank, the T-64 of Ukraine was hit,
> two crew members left the burning tank, which is unknown with the third.


😆 

Thanks @Soldier35 a.k.a.


----------



## The Bread Guy

The routine bureaucracy of occupation & annexation - Google translation from UKR mil int (original in Ukrainian attached). 


> *Russian seals and integration plan - the occupiers are drawing the occupied Ukrainian territories to Russia*
> May 3, 2022
> 
> Russian seals and integration plan - the occupiers are drawing the occupied Ukrainian territories to RussiaRussia is considering the possibility of including the occupied territories of southern Ukraine in the temporarily occupied Crimea and their further integration into the Russian economic space. The development of a plan with a deadline of at least 2030 was announced on May 1 by the adviser to the so-called "head" of Crimea on information policy Oleg Kryuchkov.
> 
> At the same time, the Russian occupation regime is trying to persuade the local population to finally establish control over the occupied territories. On May 1, in Henichesk, the newly appointed "head of the City Council" Andriy Klochko organized a solemn raising of the Russian flag. However, the townspeople ignored the racist "holiday".
> 
> A number of private enterprises in the Rostov region received orders to produce seals and stamps for the occupation administrations of Mariupol. The list of institutions that will receive new "attributes" includes educational institutions, hospitals, police, registry offices and administrative institutions. Even though most of them are now completely destroyed by Russian troops.
> 
> The ordered stamps and seals contain the inscription: "Russia, the Republic of Donbas, Mariupol, the military-civil administration."
> 
> The racists announced that similar stamps and seals would be made for occupied Kherson in June.
> 
> Today in Mariupol occupiers carry out "big cleaning". The Russians are searching for and destroying the bodies of the dead. To do this, the city has three mobile crematoria since April 15 ...


Note this bit on when things may be scheduled to wrap up (allegedly, anyway) ....


> ... There is information among the occupier's military that the term of the so-called "special military operation" is set for September 2022.


Also, a pretty dramatic fundraising site showing what some Canadian cities could look like if they got "Not a War'ed" ....


----------



## MilEME09

For those keeping track, please add Israel to the list of nations that now hate Russia


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521446197084438529


----------



## Remius

MilEME09 said:


> For those keeping track, please add Israel to the list of nations that now hate Russia
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521446197084438529


Words matter.


----------



## lenaitch

Colin Parkinson said:


> Tire made in the USSR on a destroyed Grad
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520750841279533059


Hmm.  A tire that is over 20 years old, or a manufacturer, likely serving only the domestic market, clinging to the days of old.

I had a set of Nokian tires (Finland) on a previous truck and saw that they were stamped 'Made in Russia'.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Good2Golf said:


> 😆
> 
> Thanks @Soldier35 a.k.a.




<Infantry guy quietly congratulating himself for not going artillery or armoured>


----------



## Remius

MilEME09 said:


> For those keeping track, please add Israel to the list of nations that now hate Russia
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521446197084438529


And when you piss of israel might as well double down.









						Russia says Israel supports neo-Nazis in row over Ukraine
					

Russia's foreign ministry accused Israel on Tuesday of supporting neo-Nazis in Ukraine, further escalating a row which began when Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed Adolf Hitler had Jewish origins.




					www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## Staff Weenie

Remius said:


> And when you piss of israel might as well double down.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia says Israel supports neo-Nazis in row over Ukraine
> 
> 
> Russia's foreign ministry accused Israel on Tuesday of supporting neo-Nazis in Ukraine, further escalating a row which began when Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed Adolf Hitler had Jewish origins.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca


I wonder if Israel might now consider sales of Iron Dome to the Ukraine?


----------



## TacticalTea

Staff Weenie said:


> I wonder if Israel might now consider sales of Iron Dome to the Ukraine?


It should. Especially given how much aid the US has showered them with...


----------



## Remius

Staff Weenie said:


> I wonder if Israel might now consider sales of Iron Dome to the Ukraine?


Or training Ukrainians on how to hunt down war criminals.


----------



## Spencer100

lenaitch said:


> Hmm.  A tire that is over 20 years old, or a manufacturer, likely serving only the domestic market, clinging to the days of old.
> 
> I had a set of Nokian tires (Finland) on a previous truck and saw that they were stamped 'Made in Russia'.


Nokian has a plant Russia.   Yes that is the founding company of Nokia.  Interesting company it was a case study in school of a business that pivots to the market.  From rubber to telcoms.  Its in the company DNA...they sold the handset business to Microsoft just before it went to zero.


----------



## Underway

Remius said:


> Or training Ukrainians on how to hunt down war criminals.


Ukraine needs to do all this stuff above board.  Their propaganda coup by showing their own nobility and civility as opposed to Russian brutality and ignorance needs to remain intact.  This mean proper investigations and arrests, not some vigilantee stuff that leads to them losing support in the West.

There will come a time when Ukraine will have a war crimes violation of their own, and they will have to decide on whether to prosecute it, their home public opinion and Western public opinion will loom large over that decision.


----------



## OldSolduer

Remius said:


> Or training Ukrainians on how to hunt down war criminals.


ON that subject the Israelis are - or at least were - masters in hunting down those that had harmed their people. The 1972 Olympics - every terrorist was hunted down and "dispatched" with out mercy. Apparently the assassins did make a mistake in Norway.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Remius said:


> Or training Ukrainians on how to hunt down war criminals.


*Veeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeery* touchy subject, that.  Because of the history of, shall we say, fluid governance structures of local forces during and after WW2 in that part of the world, one man's "war criminal" could also end up being another man's "freedom fighter/anti-Soviet hero".  How much overlap would there be, say, in any "war criminal" lists provided by Ukrainian vs. lists from Russian/former Soviet authorities?

Similar to the current tension in former Soviet bloc countries between "hey, the Soviets saved our asses from Nazis, buddy, so don't mess with that statue!" versus "hey, the Soviets ended up treating us like s**t afterwards, maybe worse than the Nazis in some ways, so stick your Lenin/Great Patriotic War monuments ... elsewhere!" narratives.


----------



## Kirkhill

OldSolduer said:


> ON that subject the Israelis are - or at least were - masters in hunting down those that had harmed their people. The 1972 Olympics - every terrorist was hunted down and "dispatched" with out mercy. Apparently the assassins did make a mistake in Norway.



It could be argued that the Israelis may have felt better but didn't do much to make friends with those tactics.  In the long run it may have contributed to their troubles at the UN.


----------



## Kirkhill

Meanwhile, back in the USSR boys (so its not technically correct - meh)


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uhe081

This one is kinda neat - you erase Ukraine from the books, we erase the books.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uhbidc

And on a military note - an uptick on targeted artillery missions in Kherson area by the Ukrainians although they are still on the defensive.  Better depth fires?



> “Our rocker (sic) and artillery units have completed more than 40 fire missions. Along the administrative border of Mykolaiv Region and Kherson Region, we destroyed an enemy command operations center, three ammunition depots, one fuel and oils depot and several groups of enemy troops and military equipment. The total losses are yet to be reported,” the report states.





> Ukrainian forces continued to defend the captured frontiers in Kherson Region and Mykolaiv Region











						Enemy operations center and three ammunition depots destroyed in southern Ukraine
					

Ukrainian defenders have destroyed an enemy command operations center, three ammunition depots and several groups of Russian troops and military equipment in southern Ukraine. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Kirkhill

Staff Weenie said:


> I wonder if Israel might now consider sales of Iron Dome to the Ukraine?



Probably not.









						Israel reportedly leaning toward sending defensive military aid to Ukraine
					

Officials expected to support sending defensive equipment only at symbolic levels in bid to keep Russia ties intact; Israel recently agreed to send defensive aid to civilian teams




					www.timesofisrael.com
				




Perhaps the US could consider re-directing some of the military aid to Ukraine in the future.


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> Meanwhile, back in the USSR boys (so its not technically correct - meh)
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uhe081
> 
> This one is kinda neat - you erase Ukraine from the books, we erase the books.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uhbidc
> 
> And on a military note - an uptick on targeted artillery missions in Kherson area by the Ukrainians although they are still on the defensive.  Better depth fires?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Enemy operations center and three ammunition depots destroyed in southern Ukraine
> 
> 
> Ukrainian defenders have destroyed an enemy command operations center, three ammunition depots and several groups of Russian troops and military equipment in southern Ukraine. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net


More bleeding their supplies, hopefully they make a push soon to break through.


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> Meanwhile, back in the USSR boys (so its not technically correct - meh)
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uhe081
> 
> This one is kinda neat - you erase Ukraine from the books, we erase the books.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uhbidc
> 
> And on a military note - an uptick on targeted artillery missions in Kherson area by the Ukrainians although they are still on the defensive.  Better depth fires?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Enemy operations center and three ammunition depots destroyed in southern Ukraine
> 
> 
> Ukrainian defenders have destroyed an enemy command operations center, three ammunition depots and several groups of Russian troops and military equipment in southern Ukraine. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net



More on protecting lines of communications and the rear in Russia.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uhdc72


----------



## GR66

This article from the 1945 website offers the suggestion of a massive conventional attack against Crimea as a potential NATO response to any Russian use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.


----------



## Kirkhill

One Crimean Brigade, 126th Gorlovka Guards Brigade operating in the Kherson region may be down 75% of its strength (ie 25% remaining)

The Crimean Garrison is apparently fully depleted as well and needs replenishing.









						Losses up to 75%: Putin’s army reserves in the annexed Crimea are exhausted – expert
					

According to the “Crimean partisans”, the 126th Gorlovka Guards Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces suffered huge losses. Putin threw all the forces from the Crimea to the war with Ukra…




					ukrainetoday.org


----------



## Kirkhill

Intriguing to see what is apparently considered a legitimate response to dissent...


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uhfdoy


----------



## FSTO

Kirkhill said:


> More on protecting lines of communications and the rear in Russia.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uhdc72


If you have ever been in the prairies and off the TCH, then that is what the Ukrainian partisans are operating in. Lonely, isolated infrastructure that are crucial to transportation that no one is around to check on 24/7.


----------



## Kirkhill

The Three Day Offensive has come and gone
The Easter Offensive has come and gone
Apparently the May 9th Offensive is on delay
Schedule slipping to the Right
Now September.










						Russian army says that war is planned to continue until September - Ukrainian Intelligence
					

TUESDAY, 3 MAY 2022, 15:13




					www.pravda.com.ua


----------



## Kirkhill

FSTO said:


> If you have ever been in the prairies and off the TCH, then that is what the Ukrainian partisans are operating in. Lonely, isolated infrastructure that are crucial to transportation that no one is around to check on 24/7.



I live in that region - greatest road hazard is when the road takes a turn  Turns are more frequent that cars in some areas.


----------



## CBH99

Kirkhill said:


> Probably not.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Israel reportedly leaning toward sending defensive military aid to Ukraine
> 
> 
> Officials expected to support sending defensive equipment only at symbolic levels in bid to keep Russia ties intact; Israel recently agreed to send defensive aid to civilian teams
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.timesofisrael.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Perhaps the US could consider re-directing some of the military aid to Ukraine in the future.


Do you mean redirect the aid it usually gives Israel, and offer it to Ukraine instead?

Or the aid it will give to Ukraine, redirect towards Israel?


Israel already has a successful arms industry, an extremely generous military aid package offered annually, and is by far the regional powerhouse & provider of stability. 

(Let’s ignore Palestine in this post, for the sake of the bigger picture.)

The US could cut off their aid tomorrow, and they’d still be in better shape than most western armed forces.  


The Ukraine has shown they’ve earned their keep in NATO, are professional, and essential in keeping a future Russia at bay.  They are now, I’d imagine, that region’s most valuable ally in thwarting future Russian aggression.  

(Not to mention the obvious, but are performing AMAZINGLY WELL given 100,000+ Russian troops trying to blitzkrieg the entire country.)

Ukraine has earned some serious military aid packages in the upcoming years, as well as a reconsideration & redirection of our foreign aid dollars.  



My 0.02


----------



## CBH99

Kirkhill said:


> I live in that region - greatest road hazard is when the road takes a turn  Turns are more frequent that cars in some areas.


I always miss the scenery once one drives past Coalhurst or Coaldale, or takes that shortcut that connects ‘the road just past Claresholm’ to the ‘north/south secondary highway about 30-34km to the east.’

Other than a few planted around the odd house to help deflect the wind, not a damn tree in sight.  Like not even one, as far as the horizon.


I miss that prairie vibe


----------



## Kirkhill

Daily Kos has an interesting report on the Ukrainian move on Stariy Saltiv and the Russian withdrawal from the west bank of the Siverodonets.

It also suggest some things to watch for.



> Ukrainian forces bypassed Russian forces in multiple villages, took a series of small roads, and entered the town of Staryi Saltiv on Sunday ... there were several other areas with Russian occupation “in the way.”
> 
> (Although the DailyKos reported fighting continuing in Stariy Saltiv at time of writing it also reported this:
> 
> @Boba12340769066
> Replying to @War_Mapper
> Just yesterday morning there were no RU in the whole Staryi Saltiv and right up to the bridge in Rubizhne at the North (the bridge was blown up by retreating RU). On the other side of the Siversky Donets, a lot of RU equipment was burned, although the territory remains with them.
> 4:26 AM · May 3, 2022 )
> 
> ... it seems that Russian forces that were south of that location, but on the west bank of the Donets, have gone missing. In other words, they’ve withdrawn north or south .... As a result, a whole chain of villages appears to have come back into Ukrainian-controlled territory without the need for a step-by-step fight.
> 
> ...Ukraine has been able to shift them (the Russians)  roughly 40 kilometers (25 miles) since the counterattack out of Kharkiv began.
> 
> For Russia, the threat is not so much that Ukrainian forces will march to the border and just keep going. The threat is right there in Staryi Saltiv. That’s because this town is the site of a highly strategic bridge crossing. If that bridge is intact, and Ukrainian forces could push over the Donets, they would be in the rear—and sitting on the supply line—of a whole series of Russian-held towns to the south. If they could push 15 miles north from there, they could reach Vovchans'k, a critically important road and rail junction. All the men and material coming in from Belgorod (20 miles northwest) passes through this point.
> 
> If Ukraine continues to advance along those other roads moving north of Kharkiv, it may signal a general Russian withdrawal from the area west of the Donets. If Ukraine reports that it has put forces on the east side of that bridge, it will be a genuinely big deal—one that’s likely to demand Russia turn some force around from other efforts to secure its rear.
> 
> One thing to watch for soon: Look for what happens in the town of Shestakove and village of Fredirivka north of Kharkiv. These towns are sitting on a much better roadway between Kharkiv and Staryi Saltiv. If Ukraine really intends to move a lot of force in that direction, expect these towns to become the focus of some attention Real Soon Now.











						Ukraine update: Surprise Ukrainian gains north of Kharkiv could impact Battle for Donbas
					

The big story today is that something not small happened over the last week. Since Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine moved to what is being called the Battle of the Donbas, most actions seem to have taken place at a rate that roughly approximates...




					www.dailykos.com


----------



## Kirkhill

CBH99 said:


> Do you mean redirect the aid it usually gives Israel, and offer it to Ukraine instead?
> 
> Or the aid it will give to Ukraine, redirect towards Israel?
> 
> 
> Israel already has a successful arms industry, an extremely generous military aid package offered annually, and is by far the regional powerhouse & provider of stability.
> 
> (Let’s ignore Palestine in this post, for the sake of the bigger picture.)
> 
> The US could cut off their aid tomorrow, and they’d still be in better shape than most western armed forces.
> 
> 
> The Ukraine has shown they’ve earned their keep in NATO, are professional, and essential in keeping a future Russia at bay.  They are now, I’d imagine, that region’s most valuable ally in thwarting future Russian aggression.
> 
> (Not to mention the obvious, but are performing AMAZINGLY WELL given 100,000+ Russian troops trying to blitzkrieg the entire country.)
> 
> Ukraine has earned some serious military aid packages in the upcoming years, as well as a reconsideration & redirection of our foreign aid dollars.
> 
> 
> 
> My 0.02



I agree with you.  I was thinking to redirect the aid it supplies Israel to the Ukrainians.  Israel seems to be able to look after itself these days.


----------



## Kirkhill

CBH99 said:


> I always miss the scenery once one drives past Coalhurst or Coaldale, or takes that shortcut that connects ‘the road just past Claresholm’ to the ‘north/south secondary highway about 30-34km to the east.’
> 
> Other than a few planted around the odd house to help deflect the wind, not a damn tree in sight.  Like not even one, as far as the horizon.
> 
> 
> I miss that prairie vibe




I think you're talking up Hwy 22 that runs up the foothills.   And another favourite spot of mine is the switchback trail by the Chain Lakes west of Nanton that connects Hwy 22 to the Forestry Trunk Road.  There is a perch with a meltwater pond up there that looks east over the prairies from about 2000 ft above mean ground level.  A great place to watch the sun come up in the summer time.


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uh8aot


----------



## Brad Sallows

Apropos of something upthread, I wonder how long it will be before Sesame Street will be brought to us by the poor letter "Z".


----------



## Skysix

So, is a backwards 'Z' a sign of distress? 😁

And did anyone ever figure out what the other tactical symbols were indicating and that were used early on? I have heard that Z troops were aimed at Kiev (Zelinsky?) and O seemed to be in the occupied eastern Oblasts but lack any confirmation.


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> Daily Kos has an interesting report on the Ukrainian move on Stariy Saltiv and the Russian withdrawal from the west bank of the Siverodonets.
> 
> It also suggest some things to watch for.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine update: Surprise Ukrainian gains north of Kharkiv could impact Battle for Donbas
> 
> 
> The big story today is that something not small happened over the last week. Since Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine moved to what is being called the Battle of the Donbas, most actions seem to have taken place at a rate that roughly approximates...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.dailykos.com


Absolutely critical to watch how this plays out, especially how much equipment was lost by Russia, if ukraine took the bridge, and where they push next. Russia may have to shift forces to plug the line. Otherwise as stated the UA may push north, and cut the supply lines down to Izyum from Belgorod.


----------



## GR66

Skysix said:


> So, is a backwards 'Z' a sign of distress? 😁
> 
> And did anyone ever figure out what the other tactical symbols were indicating and that were used early on? I have heard that Z troops were aimed at Kiev (Zelinsky?) and O seemed to be in the occupied eastern Oblasts but lack any confirmation.


The markings are explained in this article:

     The Letter “V” represents the Russian Marines

     The Letter “Z” represents units in the Eastern Military District

     The Letter “Z” in a square represents the Southern Military District (Crimea)

     The Letter “O” represents units from Belarus

     The Letter “X” represents the forces of Ramzan Kadyrov, the Putin installed warlord of Russia’s Chechnya region.

     The Letter “A” represents Russian Special Forces(SSO) like Spetznaz in its various operational units.


----------



## MilEME09

Looks like we got confirmed liberation on the west side if the river


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521564841823068165


----------



## OldSolduer

FSTO said:


> If you have ever been in the prairies and off the TCH, then that is what the Ukrainian partisans are operating in. Lonely, isolated infrastructure that are crucial to transportation that no one is around to check on 24/7.


A vast emptiness where the "neighbors" may live a mile or more away. People tend to mind their own business.


----------



## Weinie

OldSolduer said:


> A vast emptiness where the "neighbors" may live a mile or more away. People tend to mind their own business.


I was posted to Portage la Prairie in the mid 80's. I watched my dog run away for three days.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Red Cross tells a bit of a story about the Azovstal evacuation without saying much (highlights mine)


> Several dozen civilians left the Azovstal plant area in Mariupol during a five-day safe passage operation coordinated by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), the parties to the conflict and the United Nations.
> 
> A convoy of buses and ambulances accompanied by ICRC and UN teams was joined by families and individuals in private vehicles along the way. More than 100 people, including some who were wounded, reached Zaporizhzhia on Tuesday. *Other people from the plant went elsewhere; the ICRC did not organize nor accompany these civilian movements ...*


Wanna bet those mentioned in yellow didn't end up in UKR-controlled Ukraine?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uh8aot



Let's just hope that it doesn't end with the same kind of treaty becasue the West didn't step in to help in time.... again:

End of war in March​
On 5 March, the Red Army advanced 10 to 15 km (6.2 to 9.3 mi) past the Mannerheim Line and entered the suburbs of Viipuri. The same day, the Red Army established a beachhead on the Western Gulf of Viipuri. The Finns proposed an armistice on 6 March, but the Soviets, wanting to keep the pressure on the Finnish government, declined the offer. The Finnish peace delegation travelled to Moscow via Stockholm and arrived on 7 March. The Soviets had further demands, as their military position was strong and improving. On 9 March, the Finnish military situation on the Karelian Isthmus was dire, as troops were experiencing heavy casualties. Artillery ammunition was exhausted and weapons were wearing out. The Finnish government, realizing that the hoped-for Franco-British military expedition would not arrive in time, as Norway and Sweden had not given the Allies right of passage, had little choice but to accept the Soviet terms.[179] Finnish President Kyösti Kallio resisted the idea of giving up any territory to the Soviet Union, but was forced to agree to sign the Moscow Peace Treaty. When he signed the document, the tormented president uttered the well-known words:



> Let the hand wither that signs this monstrous treaty![180]











						Winter War - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> Let's just hope that it doesn't end with the same kind of treaty becasue the West didn't step in to help in time.... again:
> 
> End of war in March​
> On 5 March, the Red Army advanced 10 to 15 km (6.2 to 9.3 mi) past the Mannerheim Line and entered the suburbs of Viipuri. The same day, the Red Army established a beachhead on the Western Gulf of Viipuri. The Finns proposed an armistice on 6 March, but the Soviets, wanting to keep the pressure on the Finnish government, declined the offer. The Finnish peace delegation travelled to Moscow via Stockholm and arrived on 7 March. The Soviets had further demands, as their military position was strong and improving. On 9 March, the Finnish military situation on the Karelian Isthmus was dire, as troops were experiencing heavy casualties. Artillery ammunition was exhausted and weapons were wearing out. The Finnish government, realizing that the hoped-for Franco-British military expedition would not arrive in time, as Norway and Sweden had not given the Allies right of passage, had little choice but to accept the Soviet terms.[179] Finnish President Kyösti Kallio resisted the idea of giving up any territory to the Soviet Union, but was forced to agree to sign the Moscow Peace Treaty. When he signed the document, the tormented president uttered the well-known words:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Winter War - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org



Britain, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Poland all seem bent on not repeating the errors of 1939.  At least some people seem to have read their history books.   The Balts are motivated.  Not sure about France and BeNeLux.


----------



## Kirkhill

Weinie said:


> I was posted to Portage la Prairie in the mid 80's. I watched my dog run away for three days.



Apparently you weren't feeding him right.


----------



## Kirkhill

OldSolduer said:


> A vast emptiness where the "neighbors" may live a mile or more away. People tend to mind their own business.



A place where you can enjoy your own company.


----------



## MilEME09

Satellite is picking up a large fire in the black sea, possibly a ship or oil platform, within Romanian EEZ


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521599683675701251


----------



## YZT580

MilEME09 said:


> Satellite is picking up a large fire in the black sea, possibly a ship or oil platform, within Romanian EEZ
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521599683675701251


or someone running into a drifting mine?


----------



## CBH99

YZT580 said:


> or someone running into a drifting mine?


Where is soldier35 when we need him?  

I hope he posts soon with some sort of explanation for it - I’ve got an extra bag of chips downstairs that I’m looking for an excuse to eat/disgustingly demolish.


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> Daily Kos has an interesting report on the Ukrainian move on Stariy Saltiv and the Russian withdrawal from the west bank of the Siverodonets.
> 
> It also suggest some things to watch for.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine update: Surprise Ukrainian gains north of Kharkiv could impact Battle for Donbas
> 
> 
> The big story today is that something not small happened over the last week. Since Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine moved to what is being called the Battle of the Donbas, most actions seem to have taken place at a rate that roughly approximates...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.dailykos.com



Further to....


My own map - take it for what it is worth.

The Green Pins are nominal bridges, some if not many of them are probably down.  Maybe better to think of them as crossing points on major routes.

The Daily Kos report talks about the Ukrainians having to take the Stariy Saltiv crossing intact to  get across the Sivero Donetsk in order to get into the Izyum Pocket with the Russians.   But if I'm not mistaken the Ukrainians got across that river at  Chuihuiv a week ago and have been pushing on Kupyansk since then.  They seem to have taken  Bazaliivka, Leb'yazhe, Korobochkino, Stara Hnylytsya, Staroverivka and Borivs'ke, all on the Vovchansk, Velykyi Burluk, Kupyansk side of the river.  That would suggest, at very least that the Russian supply route to Izyum may be compromised as is their exit route back to Russia.   It is 30 km from Stariy Saltiv to Vovchansk, 40 km to Velykyi Burluk  and 45 km from Bazaliivka to Kupyansk.



I look to be corrected.


----------



## Kirkhill

Rumint?









						Kremlin coup rumours growing in Moscow: Disgruntled generals join FSB looking to oust Putin and end Ukraine war
					

Rumours are swirling in Moscow that a number of former generals and KGB officials are preparing to oust Russia's president Vladimir Putin and plan to end




					www.cityam.com


----------



## OldSolduer

Kirkhill said:


> A place where you can enjoy your own company.


Sometimes my own company is not very good.


----------



## OldSolduer

Kirkhill said:


> Rumint?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Kremlin coup rumours growing in Moscow: Disgruntled generals join FSB looking to oust Putin and end Ukraine war
> 
> 
> Rumours are swirling in Moscow that a number of former generals and KGB officials are preparing to oust Russia's president Vladimir Putin and plan to end
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cityam.com


Just what you want - a warning. Facepalm.....


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> Further to....
> 
> 
> My own map - take it for what it is worth.
> 
> The Green Pins are nominal bridges, some if not many of them are probably down.  Maybe better to think of them as crossing points on major routes.
> 
> The Daily Kos report talks about the Ukrainians having to take the Stariy Saltiv crossing intact to  get across the Sivero Donetsk in order to get into the Izyum Pocket with the Russians.   But if I'm not mistaken the Ukrainians got across that river at  Chuihuiv a week ago and have been pushing on Kupyansk since then.  They seem to have taken  Bazaliivka, Leb'yazhe, Korobochkino, Stara Hnylytsya, Staroverivka and Borivs'ke, all on the Vovchansk, Velykyi Burluk, Kupyansk side of the river.  That would suggest, at very least that the Russian supply route to Izyum may be compromised as is their exit route back to Russia.   It is 30 km from Stariy Saltiv to Vovchansk, 40 km to Velykyi Burluk  and 45 km from Bazaliivka to Kupyansk.
> 
> View attachment 70506
> 
> I look to be corrected.


The bridge at Stariy Saltiv is only 130m long at most, even if the bridge is blown, thats a small span to gap.


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> The bridge at Stariy Saltiv is only 130m long at most, even if the bridge is blown, thats a small span to gap.



The bridge is 160m long, the width of the channel is 130m. Might look tight compared to the ''river'', but as you can see on this image, no visible surface trouble. This is actually a reservoir as there is a dam 25km down. The river is about 80m wide before the reservoir and 25m some distance after the dam.


----------



## Kirkhill

Hungry?  Most Pookuliar.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521538813813837824


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:


> Hungry?  Most Pookuliar.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521538813813837824


No love lost between Hungary & Ukraine over UKR's treatment of the Hungarian minority.  There's a reason Hungary's not a fan of Ukraine in NATO (links to Hungarian info-machine) ....

Meanwhile, more on Canada's former general in UKR ....

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521596344351211521... and this doozy from Azerbaijan media








						Russia captures Commander of Canadian Army at Azovstal
					

Russia captures Commander of Canadian Army at Azovstal




					apa.az


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> Hungry?  Most Pookuliar.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521538813813837824


Combined with the stories of Poland wanting western Ukraine, territory going to Romania. Sounds like Russian BS trying to drive a wedge between NATO and Ukraine. Don't get me wrong Victor Orbon is a POS but I doubt he would invoke the wraith if the EU


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521221963934490624


----------



## Kirkhill

Russian Convoy in lager taken out by Ukrainian Artillery

North of Kharkiv but still west of Stary Saltiv.  Apparently still got some clearing out to do.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521556446747541510

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521607988414406658


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> Russian Convoy in lager taken out by Ukrainian Artillery
> 
> North of Kharkiv but still west of Stary Saltiv.  Apparently still got some clearing out to do.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521556446747541510
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521607988414406658
> View attachment 70517


Should be noted the US has acknowledged M777s have entered combat


----------



## McG

Russia: Hitler was a Jew & Israel supports Nazis.

Israel: hey Ukraine, we got some tech.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521491225169350656

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521426840975413249


----------



## daftandbarmy

McG said:


> Russia: Hitler was a Jew & Israel supports Nazis.
> 
> Israel: hey Ukraine, we got some tech.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521491225169350656
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521426840975413249


----------



## MilEME09

McG said:


> Russia: Hitler was a Jew & Israel supports Nazis.
> 
> Israel: hey Ukraine, we got some tech.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521491225169350656
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521426840975413249


400km essentially takes the Russian surface fleet out of the game, and if they can catch them in port, hit their subs too.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Maybe it's just me, but shouldnt at least one of these parents be fighting for their country ? 









						Ukrainian family settles into life in N.S. and Canada after fleeing the war  | Globalnews.ca
					

Bukunmi Damilola Oluwamogbiele said he has "new energy" now that he's safely in Nova Scotia with his family away from the war in Ukraine.




					globalnews.ca


----------



## The Bread Guy

Halifax Tar said:


> Maybe it's just me, but *shouldnt at least one of these parents be fighting for their country ?*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian family settles into life in N.S. and Canada after fleeing the war  | Globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> Bukunmi Damilola Oluwamogbiele said he has "new energy" now that he's safely in Nova Scotia with his family away from the war in Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> globalnews.ca


Hard to say - there's a lot of families outta Ukraine, and I haven't heard a lot of people asking "why aren't they fighting?".

If he IS a Ukrainian citizen, I suspect it may have been easier for him to get _into_ Canada than _out_ of Ukraine, given the "18 to 60 males can't leave" orders. Which may also explain why she was able to get out first, then arrange for him to join.

If he isn't a UKR national, well, there were reports earlier on in the war that minorities were prevented from leaving (to the point of being pulled off evac buses).  So unless things have changed dramatically - and I'm open to changing my mind with new info - there was already _some_ reason he didn't leave with his wife, or why it may have been difficult for them to leave together.

Also, one could say "shouldn't they stay & fight?" about anyone leaving, so hard to judge anyone's individual circumstances in a crappy situation like this - everyone's mileage may vary.


----------



## Remius

The Bread Guy said:


> Hard to say - there's a lot of families outta Ukraine, and I haven't heard a lot of people asking "why aren't they fighting?".
> 
> If he IS a Ukrainian citizen, I suspect it may have been easier for him to get _into_ Canada than _out_ of Ukraine, given the "18 to 60 males can't leave" orders. Which may also explain why she was able to get out first, then arrange for him to join.
> 
> If he isn't a UKR national, well, there were reports earlier on in the war that minorities were prevented from leaving (to the point of being pulled off evac buses).  So unless things have changed dramatically - and I'm open to changing my mind with new info - there was already _some_ reason he didn't leave with his wife, or why it may have been difficult for them to leave together.
> 
> Also, one could say "shouldn't they stay & fight?" about anyone leaving, so hard to judge anyone's individual circumstances in a crappy situation like this - everyone's mileage may vary.


Only extra info I could find was that he is in the fact a dual citizen (Nigerian-Ukrainian) and was at sea working on a Transport ship when the war broke out.


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Hard to say - there's a lot of families outta Ukraine, and I haven't heard a lot of people asking "why aren't they fighting?".
> 
> If he IS a Ukrainian citizen, I suspect it may have been easier for him to get _into_ Canada than _out_ of Ukraine, given the "18 to 60 males can't leave" orders. Which may also explain why she was able to get out first, then arrange for him to join.
> 
> If he isn't a UKR national, well, there were reports earlier on in the war that minorities were prevented from leaving (to the point of being pulled off evac buses).  So unless things have changed dramatically - and I'm open to changing my mind with new info - there was already _some_ reason he didn't leave with his wife, or why it may have been difficult for them to leave together.
> 
> Also, one could say "shouldn't they stay & fight?" about anyone leaving, so hard to judge anyone's individual circumstances in a crappy situation like this - everyone's mileage may vary.


Then there's the angle of all of them being allowed to return to Ukraine.  The Ukrainian government may not take a kind view of those males 18-60 who got out of Ukraine once the fighting started and didn't make an effort to return and fight for their country.  

Since the article seems to indicate that this fellow was already outside of the country (on a ship?) once the fighting started, he might have some leeway but for those that don't have a valid reason, whoa to them and an angry government and population for not fulfilling your required duty.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> ... Since the article seems to indicate that this fellow was already outside of the country (on a ship?) once the fighting started ...


... especially on a ship Team USSR 2.0 wouldn't necessarily see as friendly (not a warship, but not something they HAVE to let back in).  Good point.


----------



## Underway

MilEME09 said:


> 400km essentially takes the Russian surface fleet out of the game, and if they can catch them in port, hit their subs too.


That's not the range of either of those missiles.  But their ranges are longer than the Harpoon by a bit, they have better targeting and penetration aids as well.


Halifax Tar said:


> Maybe it's just me, but shouldnt at least one of these parents be fighting for their country ?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian family settles into life in N.S. and Canada after fleeing the war  | Globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> Bukunmi Damilola Oluwamogbiele said he has "new energy" now that he's safely in Nova Scotia with his family away from the war in Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> globalnews.ca


No. 

Ukraine is very forward thinking WRT "if you don't want to be here then don't be here, we get it".  Besides if he's not a Ukrainian citizen there is no law prohibiting him from leaving, or his wife.   The recent story in Times about Zelenski talked about how a lot of Ukrainian senior military fled early, only to come back.  No repercussions. Once their families were safe then they are able to focus on the task properly.

The "everyone must stay and fight" mentality is a non-realistic one.  I wouldn't want anyone near me who isn't committed to the fight.  Lead, Follow or get the hell outta the way.  Option three is a valid option.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Underway said:


> That's not the range of either of those missiles.  But their ranges are longer than the Harpoon by a bit, they have better targeting and penetration aids as well.
> 
> No.
> 
> Ukraine is very forward thinking WRT "if you don't want to be here then don't be here, we get it".  Besides if he's not a Ukrainian citizen there is no law prohibiting him from leaving, or his wife.   The recent story in Times about Zelenski talked about how a lot of Ukrainian senior military fled early, only to come back.  No repercussions. Once their families were safe then they are able to focus on the task properly.
> 
> The "everyone must stay and fight" mentality is a non-realistic one.  I wouldn't want anyone near me who isn't committed to the fight.  Lead, Follow or get the hell outta the way.  Option three is a valid option.


 
Bon point.


----------



## KevinB

Underway said:


> That's not the range of either of those missiles.  But their ranges are longer than the Harpoon by a bit, they have better targeting and penetration aids as well.



So Tomahawk for the win  




Underway said:


> No.
> 
> Ukraine is very forward thinking WRT "if you don't want to be here then don't be here, we get it".  Besides if he's not a Ukrainian citizen there is no law prohibiting him from leaving, or his wife.   The recent story in Times about Zelenski talked about how a lot of Ukrainian senior military fled early, only to come back.  No repercussions. Once their families were safe then they are able to focus on the task properly.
> 
> The "everyone must stay and fight" mentality is a non-realistic one.  I wouldn't want anyone near me who isn't committed to the fight.  Lead, Follow or get the hell outta the way.  Option three is a valid option.


110%


----------



## Telegrammer

Underway said:


> The "everyone must stay and fight" mentality is a non-realistic one.  I wouldn't want anyone near me who isn't committed to the fight.  Lead, Follow or get the hell outta the way.  Option three is a valid option.


My wife's friend (from a small village in Western UA) said her son-in-law just got conscripted two weeks ago, along with 60 other men from the village - pretty much their entire male population.


----------



## Telegrammer

In other news, a video of Wagner operators surfaced yesterday, claiming superb urban ops tactics with 4 assaulters against 8 defenders: 



 (there's also the full 22min version of the op).
In my limited view, i find it questionable - they stack up first, then split up and approach the door entry point from two opposite directions, crossing arcs and lasing each other... anyone thinks otherwise?


----------



## Kirkhill

South Ossetian troops were sent to Ukraine to help the Russians.  They came back after two days because of the chaos at the front.  The article is a record of a public meeting between the returned soldiers and the President of South Ossetia to understand why they didn't fight.

I used Google's translate service to read the article.









						«Над нами смеялись: вы, говорят, что — смертники?». Разговор военных из Южной Осетии и главы республики Анатолия Бибилова
					

В конце марта многие контрактники из самопровозглашенной Южной Осетии отказались воевать в Украине. После этого, по данн...




					zona.media
				





I am including the trail by which I found the article as well as the direct link



			https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor


----------



## Kirkhill

The role of management studies and innovation in the UAF.  Follow the thread.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521829789887340544


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> The role of management studies and innovation in the UAF.  Follow the thread.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521829789887340544



Management consultants be like....


----------



## GR66

daftandbarmy said:


> Management consultants be like....


Obviously what you meant to say was...


----------



## Kirkhill

Putin kept everybody in the dark 









						Putin did not even warn the government of the Russian Federation and the State Duma about the war with Ukraine - “Proekt”
					

OLENA ROSHCHINA — WEDNESDAY, 4 MAY 2022, 15:25




					www.pravda.com.ua


----------



## Czech_pivo

Another article out today discussing what I posted a few days ago about Canada being AWOL.

As @Underway recently posted: "Lead, Follow or get the hell outta the way."  It's become quite clear to many that Canada (Trudeau) has chosen the 'get the hell outta the way' option recently.

FIRST READING: Canada conspicuously absent as world leaders descend on Kyiv​
Canada was one of the first countries to close its Kyiv embassy in advance of the Russian invasion; diplomats were evacuated on Feb. 12, nearly two weeks before Russian tanks began crossing into Ukrainian territory.

While Canada is now planning to reopen its Kyiv embassy, that decision came only after virtually every other NATO country started moving diplomats back into Ukraine. *A report by CBC found that 27 nations have reopened their Ukrainian diplomatic posts while Canada’s remains shuttered*.

One factor that might explain Canada’s absence from Ukraine is that *Ottawa has heavily dialled back its contributions to Ukrainian military aid in recent weeks*.

While Canada has corralled an estimated $118 million in military aid to Ukraine since January, *it has largely sat out a series of recent high-profile weapons shipments intended to arm Ukraine’s offensive against remaining Russian positions in its east and south*. Last week, Poland donated more than 200 tanks to Ukraine.

Ottawa’s most recent pledge to Ukraine was “a number” of M777 Howitzers...And the howitzers were pledged “in conjunction” with the U.S., which might mean we’re getting the Americans to ship them...

Trudeau's Canada - ' Words, not Deeds'.









						FIRST READING: Canada conspicuously absent as world leaders descend on Kyiv
					

Nearly a dozen prime ministers have visited Kyiv since Russian forces withdrew from its outskirts, but Canada hasn't even sent an MP




					nationalpost.com


----------



## Quirky

Czech_pivo said:


> One factor that might explain Canada’s absence from Ukraine is that *Ottawa has heavily dialled back its contributions to Ukrainian military aid in recent weeks*.



Probably because we have nothing left to send.

Do thoughts and prayers count?


----------



## Good2Golf

…maybe Canada can send Environmental Minister Steven Guilbeault, and he can lecture Zelenskyy about ensuring the Ukrainian troops are very mindful of the damage they’re doing to the environment… 🤷🏻‍♂️


----------



## daftandbarmy

Good2Golf said:


> …maybe Canada can send Environmental Minister Steven Guilbeault, and he can lecture Zelenskyy about ensuring the Ukrainian troops are very mindful of the damage they’re doing to the environment… 🤷🏻‍♂️



And if we send a convicted criminal to lecture a foreign country about ethics, that would be 100% on brand


----------



## Kirkhill

What Putin's General Was Doing in Ukraine, According to Top Secret Report
					

The number of Russian soldiers' deaths is so high that the movement of body bags off the battlefield is taking place under a veil of secrecy and at night.




					www.newsweek.com
				





__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uhzc8g

And how do you find 22 BTGs for the Izyum Sector



> Russian forces continued to conduct unspecified offensive operations southwestward from Izyum towards Barvinkove on May 3. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that *elements of the Airborne Forces (VDV), 1st Tank Army, 20th, 29th, 35th, and 36th Combined Arms Armies, and 68th Army Corps* are operating in the Barvinkove direction and suffering continuous losses.[5]







__





						Institute for the Study of War
					

Ukrainian officials reported with increasing confidence that the Kremlin will announce mobilization on May 9. Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate Chief Kyrylo Budanov said on May 2 that the Kremlin has begun to prepare mobilization processes




					www.understandingwar.org
				





22 BTGs from 5 Armies, 1 Army Corps and some VDV odds and sods.  So an Army equates to 3 or 4 Battalions these days?


And the westward push on Lyman now includes



> elements of the *1st and 2nd Army Corps (forces of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics), 8th, 58th, and 5th Combined Arms Armies, Pacific Fleet, 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies, 90th Tank Division, and unspecified VDV elements*



Or 5 Armies, 2 Army Corps, an Independent Division and some more VDV odds and sods.   So another 20 or so BTGs?

By my reckoning that leave* 6 Combined Arms Army north of Kharkiv* to oppose the Ukrainian push on Vovchansk and *49 Combined Arms Army with 22 Army Corps in Kherson* to oppose the push from Kryvyi Rih.  It would seem that Zaporizhzhia Oblast is not going to have much in the way of Russian troops focused on it either.


----------



## Underway

Czech_pivo said:


> Another article out today discussing what I posted a few days ago about Canada being AWOL.
> 
> As @Underway recently posted: "Lead, Follow or get the hell outta the way."  It's become quite clear to many that Canada (Trudeau) has chosen the 'get the hell outta the way' option recently.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> FIRST READING: Canada conspicuously absent as world leaders descend on Kyiv
> 
> 
> Nearly a dozen prime ministers have visited Kyiv since Russian forces withdrew from its outskirts, but Canada hasn't even sent an MP
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nationalpost.com


The US hasn't opened its embassy either. NP cherry-picked some countries very carefully and thus showed a bias.  Particularly when one considers that the Europeans have skin in the game for their own security and we decidedly do not.

That there should be a visit I agree.  But it isn't a race and leaving space for those who have important contributions to make or are close neighbors is not a bad idea whether that's accidentally on purpose or not.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521899735745019905


----------



## daftandbarmy

Underway said:


> The US hasn't opened its embassy either. NP cherry-picked some countries very carefully and thus showed a bias.  Particularly when one considers that the Europeans have skin in the game for their own security and we decidedly do not.
> 
> That there should be a visit I agree.  But it isn't a race and leaving space for those who have important contributions to make or are close neighbors is not a bad idea whether that's accidentally on purpose or not.



"To understand Europe, you have to be a genius - or French." 

- Madeline Albright


----------



## Kirkhill

Two weeks as prisoners of the Russian Army at Gostomel

Interesting observations of the time in captivity.









						Russian troops held me captive at gunpoint for two weeks in Ukraine. Here’s what I learned. - Breaking Defense
					

On March 4, Breaking Defense correspondent Reuben Johnson was captured by Russian soldiers outside of Kyiv and taken prisoner. This is the story of what happened next.




					breakingdefense.com


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> What Putin's General Was Doing in Ukraine, According to Top Secret Report
> 
> 
> The number of Russian soldiers' deaths is so high that the movement of body bags off the battlefield is taking place under a veil of secrecy and at night.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.newsweek.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uhzc8g
> 
> And how do you find 22 BTGs for the Izyum Sector
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Institute for the Study of War
> 
> 
> Ukrainian officials reported with increasing confidence that the Kremlin will announce mobilization on May 9. Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate Chief Kyrylo Budanov said on May 2 that the Kremlin has begun to prepare mobilization processes
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.understandingwar.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 22 BTGs from 5 Armies, 1 Army Corps and some VDV odds and sods.  So an Army equates to 3 or 4 Battalions these days?
> 
> 
> And the westward push on Lyman now includes
> 
> 
> 
> Or 5 Armies, 2 Army Corps, an Independent Division and some more VDV odds and sods.   So another 20 or so BTGs?
> 
> By my reckoning that leave* 6 Combined Arms Army north of Kharkiv* to oppose the Ukrainian push on Vovchansk and *49 Combined Arms Army with 22 Army Corps in Kherson* to oppose the push from Kryvyi Rih.  It would seem that Zaporizhzhia Oblast is not going to have much in the way of Russian troops focused on it either.


Just like us Russia has higher formations called something they are no where near the Size. Heck there are reports now that BTGs are actually around 500 personal now because of combat losses


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Just like us Russia has higher formations called something they are no where near the Size. Heck there are reports now that BTGs are actually around 500 personal now because of combat losses


The Infantry and Armored Forces in those BTG's are the biggest losers too


----------



## CBH99

The Bread Guy said:


> No love lost between Hungary & Ukraine over UKR's treatment of the Hungarian minority.  There's a reason Hungary's not a fan of Ukraine in NATO (links to Hungarian info-machine) ....
> 
> Meanwhile, more on Canada's former general in UKR ....
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521596344351211521... and this doozy from Azerbaijan media
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia captures Commander of Canadian Army at Azovstal
> 
> 
> Russia captures Commander of Canadian Army at Azovstal
> 
> 
> 
> 
> apa.az


It IS nonsense.  That situation was well underway before he was even in country.  

For anybody who knows Trev, he’s alive & well.  Was in contact with him extremely recently getting a ‘straight from the horse’s mouth’ sitrep update & possible employment info - he’s alive and in good spirits!


The CAF lost one of the solid, common sense, punctual, practical ones when he left.  Great guy, great leader.  (

Pretty solid gut feeling his sexual misconduct allegation is BS.)


----------



## Weinie

CBH99 said:


> It IS nonsense.  That situation was well underway before he was even in country.
> 
> For anybody who knows Trev, he’s alive & well.  Was in contact with him extremely recently getting a ‘straight from the horse’s mouth’ sitrep update & possible employment info - he’s alive and in good spirits!
> 
> 
> *The CAF lost one of the solid, common sense, punctual, practical ones when he left.  Great guy, great leader.*  (
> 
> Pretty solid gut feeling his sexual misconduct allegation is BS.)


Yup. Every meeting/interaction I had with him was rock solid; he is a born leader and should have become CDS.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Underway said:


> The US hasn't opened its embassy either. NP cherry-picked some countries very carefully and thus showed a bias.  Particularly when one considers that the Europeans have skin in the game for their own security and we decidedly do not.
> 
> That there should be a visit I agree.  But it isn't a race and leaving space for those who have important contributions to make or are close neighbors is not a bad idea whether that's accidentally on purpose or not.


They shifted the staff from Kyiv to Lvov before the war started, if there is that much fear among our Foreign Service staff vis a vis like minded European staff, open the Consulate in Lvov now with the intent to shift back over to Kyiv once the US tells us (oops, once we decide) its safe enough to do so.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Weinie said:


> ... should have become CDS.


Well, if it's any comfort, in Azerbaijan, he _is_ known as the commander of Canada's army


----------



## Skysix

Is Netflix still viewable in Russia? Someone should hack it so it shows the opening sequence of Valkyrie where Cruise states his duty to Germany not Hitler (and the part where the generals decide to kill Hitler?) As a promo and before every stream


----------



## MilEME09

Only a subtle jab here


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521960277092278272


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> Only a subtle jab here
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521960277092278272


Canada:


----------



## Skysix

I hope all those of Ukrainian descent or affiliation or sympathy remember who NOT to vote for. And encourage their friends and relatives to do the same.


----------



## Quirky

Skysix said:


> I hope all those of Ukrainian descent or affiliation or sympathy remember who NOT to vote for. And encourage their friends and relatives to do the same.


How many Ukrainians live in the GTA?


----------



## The Bread Guy

CBH99 said:


> It IS nonsense.  That situation was well underway before he was even in country ...


Someone should have told Canada's Western Standard web site (in its own words, _"committed to the truth even when it hurts"_), which appears not to have consulted anyone other than whatever source spells Cadieu 2 different ways in the same story ...








						Ex-Canadian general arrested by Russian forces, allegedly overseeing biolab
					

According to reports from The National Pulse, a news agency in Washington D.C., Kadier was allegedly involved in the running of a biolaboratory in Ukraine, with 18 staff under his command.




					westernstandardonline.com
				



Archive link here if link above doesn't work.


----------



## OldSolduer

The Bread Guy said:


> Someone should have told Canada's Western Standard web site (in its own words, _"committed to the truth even when it hurts"_), which appears not to have consulted anyone other than whatever source spells Cadieu 2 different ways in the same story ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ex-Canadian general arrested by Russian forces, allegedly overseeing biolab
> 
> 
> According to reports from The National Pulse, a news agency in Washington D.C., Kadier was allegedly involved in the running of a biolaboratory in Ukraine, with 18 staff under his command.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> westernstandardonline.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Archive link here if link above doesn't work.


This gets curiouser and curiouser.....


----------



## Booter

The natural fit to supervise 18 scientists. An armour officer.


----------



## OldSolduer

Booter said:


> The natural fit to supervise 18 scientists. An armour officer.


Could be worse and have a crayon eater.....I know a few.....


----------



## Booter

OldSolduer said:


> Could be worse and have a crayon eater.....I know a few.....


To be fair- I wouldn’t mind seeing the results of such experiments


----------



## OldSolduer

Booter said:


> To be fair- I wouldn’t mind seeing the results of such experiments


Oh I'm pretty sure you'd see some effed up shit. I listened to a podcast yesterday about "transhumanism". It was, shall we say, something a Nazi or Communist geneticist might think up - or for that matter any amoral geneticist no matter who they were employed by.


----------



## Blackadder1916

OldSolduer said:


> This gets curiouser and curiouser.....



Consider the source.

From the Western Standard's story "_According to reports *from The National Pulse*, a news agency in Washington D.C_. . . . ".









						The National Pulse
					

QUESTIONABLE SOURCE A questionable source exhibits one or more of the following: extreme bias, consistent promotion of propaganda/conspiracies, poor or no




					mediabiasfactcheck.com
				




While the Western Standard may not (yet) fall to the level of The National Pulse, it travels in the same direction.


----------



## Skysix

OldSolduer said:


> This gets curiouser and curiouser.....



*Overall, we rate The National Pulse Questionable based on extreme right-wing bias, promotion of propaganda and conspiracy theories, affiliation with a known questionable group, and a few failed fact checks.*


----------



## Skysix

The quality of journalism can be determined from unverified 1st source claims. 'nuff said


----------



## MilEME09

DND says review exonerates Canada's mission in Ukraine of training extremists
					

The Department of National Defence says it has concluded its 2021 review into the findings of a report from George Washington University that alleged Canadian Armed Forces trained Ukrainian soldiers who belong to extremist groups and found itself absolved.




					www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## dangerboy

The article says "spokesperson for the DND reiterated that all Task Force Ukraine personnel receive pre-deployment training on right-wing extremism, including symbols."  I wonder when they started doing that?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kudos to the Pravda writer weaving so many RUS info-machine narrative threads into this one ...


----------



## Haggis

Quirky said:


> How many Ukrainians live in the GTA?


Not enough to unseat le Dauphin, particularly with the lacklustre crop of CPC leadership hopefuls.


Booter said:


> To be fair- I wouldn’t mind seeing the results of such experiments


It would probably be a pilsner.


----------



## KevinB

One thing Finland and Sweden learned from all of this -- get an equivalent to Article 5 Guarantee BEFORE applying..

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521970729788620800


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522015808062464003


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522015808062464003


Disappointed to see it wasn't shot down.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521515399992512512


----------



## RangerRay

Blackadder1916 said:


> Consider the source.
> 
> From the Western Standard's story "_According to reports *from The National Pulse*, a news agency in Washington D.C_. . . . ".
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The National Pulse
> 
> 
> QUESTIONABLE SOURCE A questionable source exhibits one or more of the following: extreme bias, consistent promotion of propaganda/conspiracies, poor or no
> 
> 
> 
> 
> mediabiasfactcheck.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> While the Western Standard may not (yet) fall to the level of The National Pulse, it travels in the same direction.


I am embarrassed to say I once had a subscription to Western Standard a long time ago when it was a magazine. They have sure gone downhill since then. Amplifying Kremlin propaganda can’t get lower than that.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522026366283231234


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> Disappointed to see it wasn't shot down.


Yep. My immediate reaction: ''And that thing flew home???''


----------



## Czech_pivo

Quirky said:


> How many Ukrainians live in the GTA?


A lot more Poles than Ukrainians, but a significant number.  Between the two they could sway a few ridings in Mississauga.


----------



## WLSC

CBH99 said:


> It IS nonsense.  That situation was well underway before he was even in country.
> 
> For anybody who knows Trev, he’s alive & well.  Was in contact with him extremely recently getting a ‘straight from the horse’s mouth’ sitrep update & possible employment info - he’s alive and in good spirits!
> 
> 
> The CAF lost one of the solid, common sense, punctual, practical ones when he left.  Great guy, great leader.  (
> 
> Pretty solid gut feeling his sexual misconduct allegation is BS.)


I wouldn’t be surprise if those allegations were on purpose.


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521515399992512512


He needs it to see the Russian gains.


----------



## MilEME09

It's not intelligence, it's a special geolocating operation 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522044965752389634


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> The work of the ACS 2S7M "Malka" in Ukraine. Despite its advanced age, and the "Malka" was developed on the basis of the older 2S7 "Peony" self-propelled gun, the 2S7M "Malka" in Ukraine with a caliber of 203 mm is in demand and is now used by the troops.



@Soldier35, what does the 2S7M use for munitions now that all the 203mm shells have been destroyed in totally-random-and-unrelated-to-the-special-FSB-operation-in-Ukraine-to-help-President-Putin-compensate-for-his-short-height fires in munitions storage locations throughout Russia? 🤔




Soldier35 said:


> Footage of the combat departure of the Su-24M aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Ukraine. The video shows the moment when the Su-24M low-altitude FAB-250SH aerial bombs are dropped on the positions of the Ukrainian army, the bomb explodes in several modes, in this case it shows a delay in the response time



Wow, don’t tell me your countrymen have already used up Stalin’s stash of FAB-3000M-46 saved over from the Great Patriotic War?  A FAB-250SH is such a small insignificant bomb for such a powerful military as the FSBarmy!


----------



## daftandbarmy

Czech_pivo said:


> A lot more Poles than Ukrainians, but a significant number.  Between the two they could sway a few ridings in Mississauga.



And, of course, since Feb 24th there have been alot more Canadians turning into Ukrainians.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Well, now, for all the pluses and minuses involved in our leaders heading over for a visit, "we didn't get an invite, we don't want to impost" are excuses they can't use any more ....




More to read on that here


			https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-ukraine-visit-1.6441172


----------



## The Bread Guy

RangerRay said:


> .... They have sure gone downhill since then. Amplifying Kremlin propaganda can’t get lower than that.


To be fair, it _was_ a different animal when it was Alberta Report way back when.  And the hunt for the elusive click & view doesn't improve the media landscape, either ....

Then again, it's not the only media recently to share RUS info-machine narrative when it helps to attack someone they like to attack.  For example, RUS state media on May 3rd ....








						NATO may have provoked Russia over Ukraine – Pope
					

Pope Francis told Italian newspaper Corriere Della Sera that NATO may have provoked the Ukraine war and that he sought a meeting with Putin




					www.rt.com
				



... versus The Rebel May 4th ...








						Pope Francis says NATO's policies may have provoked Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
					

While the Pope did not call out the United States by name, he compared the conflict in Ukraine to other wars that he said were caused and aggravated by international interests.




					www.rebelnews.com
				



... versus what the Pope is quoted saying in the original interview cited by RUS state media (original in Italian - Google English)


> "An anger that I can't say if it was provoked - he wonders - but perhaps eased, yes".


----------



## kev994

Soldier35 said:


> The work of the ACS 2S7M "Malka" in Ukraine. Despite its advanced age, and the "Malka" was developed on the basis of the older 2S7 "Peony" self-propelled gun, the 2S7M "Malka" in Ukraine with a caliber of 203 mm is in demand and is now used by the troops.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Footage of the combat departure of the Su-24M aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Ukraine. The video shows the moment when the Su-24M low-altitude FAB-250SH aerial bombs are dropped on the positions of the Ukrainian army, the bomb explodes in several modes, in this case it shows a delay in the response time


Looks like file footage from a range. I thought you guys were good at propaganda? Add one more thing to the list of items that it turns out you’re not very good at.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Skysix said:


> Is Netflix still viewable in Russia? ...


Nope ...








						TikTok restricts service in Russia and Netflix stops streaming
					

Chinese-owned video platform blocks new content after Kremlin criminalises reporting of Ukraine invasion




					www.theguardian.com
				




Meanwhile, UKR's first lady has something to say ...








						"Baby food will be unnecessary if children die. We need weapons" - Zelenska
					

The First Lady called on the West not to stop and speed up the supply of heavy weapons.




					en.lb.ua


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Soldier35 said:


> is in demand and is now used by the troops.



Anything that still goes forwards and backwards is in "high demand" I'd wager.....


----------



## KevinB

U.S. Intelligence Is Helping Ukraine Kill Russian Generals, Officials Say
					

Targeting assistance is part of a classified effort by the Biden administration to provide real-time battlefield intelligence to Ukraine.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## KevinB

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> Anything that still goes forwards and backwards is in "high demand" I'd wager.....


Preferably still with a turret too I think


----------



## YZT580

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> Anything that still goes forwards and backwards is in "high demand" I'd wager.....


especially backwards


----------



## Remius

KevinB said:


> Preferably still with a turret too I think


At this point they probably are happier with mobility.  Easier to withdraw and less useful when Ukrainians capture it without a turret.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522196351836205058


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Well, now, for all the pluses and minuses involved in our leaders heading over for a visit, "we didn't get an invite, we don't want to impost" are excuses they can't use any more ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> More to read on that here
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-ukraine-visit-1.6441172


The guy clearly says, 'We always invite your gov't to Ukraine'. 'We hope that they visit our country in not long time in the future.' 

Question: - "Do you think Canada should open its embassy in Kyiv?" - Answer: "It's proper time to open."


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> Preferably still with a turret too, *still properly played on the turret ring, *I think


TFTFY


----------



## MilEME09

Well now, keep our eyes in this


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522202590775234564
And apparently the counter attack has begun 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522202434692870144


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> Well now, keep our eyes in this
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522202590775234564
> And apparently the counter attack has begun
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522202434692870144



Combat Engineers be dreaming like....


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Czech_pivo said:


> The guy clearly says, 'We always invite your gov't to Ukraine'. 'We hope that they visit our country in not long time in the future.'
> 
> Question: - "Do you think Canada should open its embassy in Kyiv?" - Answer: "It's proper time to open."


Our government leaders are beyond risk adverse. Yes, there are active operations in Ukraine and strikes in Kyiv and Lviv; Ukraine is in an active state of war. You cannot have security guarantees in a war zone, and this is exactly what Zelensky and the Ukrainians are trying to impress on Le Dauphin. I fear that the magnitude of this slight is not fully understood by our government, and will be felt long after the war is over.


----------



## Kirkhill

Roles of the Territorial Defence Forces - 

Organized on January 1, 2022 under a new law.   A separate command under the Ukrainian Armed Forces with its own command structure
Equivalent to the Airborne Forces and the Special Operations Forces 
10,000 Full Time personnel (released experienced members of the police, National Guard and UAF) - authorized volunteers expanded from 100,000 to 1,500,000-2,000,000 due to over subscription
Short of weapons.  >10 volunteers for every rifle.


1.  Internal Security - roadblocks, street patrols, anti-saboteurs in support of the National Guard
2.  Defensive operations - initial defence of Hostomel, held until National Guard and UAF QRFs showed up, holding Sumy independently
3.  Mopping up operations - following in the wake of Russian retreat
4. Limited offensive operations - platoon and company assaults in Irpin










						Ukraine’s Territorial Defence on a War Footing - ICDS
					

Ukraine has fought heroically against Russian aggression since 2014, with the Ukrainian territorial defence forces playing a key role. The current conflagration in 2022 shows the effectiveness of the territorial defence forces, and a few lessons have been learned.



					icds.ee
				








The role of the Territorial Defence Forces seems to be expanding 

The original Territorial Defence Brigades, raised before January 2022, have been converted into motorized light brigades that are still retained for local defence.   The newer Territorial units, raised since January are now apparently taking on Holding tasks.  The Izyum sector seems to be anchored by Territorials if I understand this map correctly.   This frees up the Regulars to be more aggressive.


----------



## Kirkhill

From ISW May 4th






						Institute for the Study of War
					

Ukrainian defenses have largely stalled Russian advances in Eastern Ukraine. Russian troops conducted a number of unsuccessful attacks in Eastern Ukraine on May 4 and were unable to make any confirmed advances. Russian forces attacking south of Izyum




					www.understandingwar.org
				






> An unnamed senior US defense official stated that* Russian forces are attempting to advance in the Izyum area* southeastward towards Lyman, Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk and in an effort to encircle Ukrainian defenses from the south.[5] The official noted that* Ukrainian resistance has “stalled” Russian advances in this area* and that Russian operations remain uneven.[6]
> 
> *Ukrainian forces continued to threaten Russian ground lines of communication to Izyum* along the E40 highway,* destroying a Russian supply convoy in Vesele* on May 3.[7] *Russian forces heavily shelled Ukrainian positions south and west of Izyum and likely targeted a Ukrainian pontoon bridge across the Siverskyi Donets in Protopoivka*.[8] The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that Russian forces destroyed the bridge on May 4, but ISW cannot independently confirm this claim.[9]





Izyum is the focus of the Russian effort.   It is also where the Ukrainians conducted an Artillery Raid on Gerasimov and the HQ of either 2 or 20 CAA.

The Inner circle represents the published range of the M777/39 with the M107 round
The Outer circle represents the published range of the M777/39 with the Excalibur round

The Ukrainian defence is holding the Russians on the line Zavody, Brazhkivka, Sulyhivka, Dovhenke.

The Ukrainians have also been launching Artillery Raids and local counter-offensives north of  Kharkiv and east of Chuihuiv in the directions of Vovchansk and Kupyansk.  Those have been threatening the Ground Lines of Communication into Izyum as well as Severodonetsk.

But more interesting is the reference to the Russians shelling a Ukrainian pontoon bridge established at Protopopivka.  That bridge would allow the Ukrainians to re-enter the river bottoms upstream of Izyum and take the Russians up on the steppes from the flank and rear.  And bring Izyum within the M107 range of the M777s.  There are lots of M107 rounds and they are cheap.


----------



## Kirkhill

Looking at Google Earth that gap only appears to be about 30 meters long.


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> Ukraine’s Territorial Defence on a War Footing - ICDS
> 
> 
> Ukraine has fought heroically against Russian aggression since 2014, with the Ukrainian territorial defence forces playing a key role. The current conflagration in 2022 shows the effectiveness of the territorial defence forces, and a few lessons have been learned.
> 
> 
> 
> icds.ee


''a civilian-military command component to be in charge of the Territorial Defence Forces. However, defence policy remained the responsibility of the Armed Forces. Furthermore, a civilian authority in charge of elements of defence would be a severe violation of North Atlantic Treaty Organization standards. A civilian administration may request assistance from the military under martial law, but it must never be in command of the military.''


How does that work if POTUS is also the Commander In Chief?


----------



## MilEME09

M777 in field


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522250957496754176


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522240237744930821


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> View attachment 70552
> 
> Looking at Google Earth that gap only appears to be about 30 meters long.


Just enough to make it awkward - and an absolutely nightmare to try to span  under fire.


----------



## McG

Gap size only needs to be large enough to defeat targeted enemy gap crossing capability(ies). 



			TMM-6


----------



## RaceAddict

Even Russian dogs are defecting: Russian army dog caught in crossfire taken in by Ukraine soldiers


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> ''a civilian-military command component to be in charge of the Territorial Defence Forces. However, defence policy remained the responsibility of the Armed Forces. Furthermore, a civilian authority in charge of elements of defence would be a severe violation of North Atlantic Treaty Organization standards. A civilian administration may request assistance from the military under martial law, but it must never be in command of the military.''
> 
> 
> How does that work if POTUS is also the Commander In Chief?




One example is this 



> *The Danish Home Guard (Danish: Hjemmeværnet) (HJV) is the fourth service of the Danish military.* It was formerly concerned only with the defence of Danish territory, but since 2008, it has also supported the Danish military efforts in Afghanistan and Kosovo. *Service is voluntary and unpaid,* though members'* loss of income from time taken off work, transport expenses and other basic expenses are compensated*. However, *workshop and depot staff plus clerks and senior officers are all paid.* The unarmed Women's Army Corps (_Lottekorpset_) was merged in 1989 with the then all-male Home Guard to form the present, armed unisex Home Guard.
> 
> *Its top authority is the General Command (HJK) which is managed directly by the Danish Ministry of Defence (FMN). Only in times of tension and war will the Danish Defence Command (VFK) assume command over the Home Guard.
> 
> The Danish Home Guard is jointly headed by Major General Jens Garly (since August 2017) and a political leader (The Commissioner) who is usually a member of the Danish Parliament. On 1 March 2022 MEP Søren Gade (Venstre) became the political leader.**[1]*











						Home Guard (Denmark) - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




The Home Guard - Territorials, in peace time are independent of the "Federal" forces.  In time of crisis they come under command of "Federal" Forces.

In the US a similar but not identical situation prevails with the National Guard system.  In peace time the National Guard reports to the State Governors, not POTUS, although they co-ordinate activities jointly.  But, in time of crisis those National Guards, or at least a portion of them can be "Federalized" and put at the disposal of POTUS and the DOD.

A Canadian system would give the Maj General of Reserves the same kind of political support as that received by the the Maj General in charge of CANSOFCOM and make them independent of the Army, Navy and Air Force.  And perhaps call them something other than Reserves.  Reserves being Army, Navy and Air Force personnel that are fully trained but off the clock.


----------



## Kirkhill

I wonder what the state of the two bridges up by Vovchansk is?  The river is narrower up there (50m vs 100m).  The northern most bridge is 13 km from the blown Rubinezhsky bridge, 2 km from the border and 5 km from Vovchansk.

Vesele is where the Ukrainians apparently conducted an effective artillery raid on a large convoy of supply trucks laagered up in a copse.


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522240237744930821



And the loss rate of 1-2 BTGs per day continues


----------



## Kirkhill

Russians apparently impressed by the quality of the Ukrainian defence fortifications.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522244907540307968


----------



## Skysix

KevinB said:


> Just enough to make it awkward - and an absolutely nightmare to try to span  under fire.


MGB/Bailey equivalent absolutely impossible under effective artillery OR small weapons fire. Even pontoon would be next to impossible under artillery fire.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522163528274173952


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> One example is this
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Home Guard (Denmark) - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Home Guard - Territorials, in peace time are independent of the "Federal" forces.  In time of crisis they come under command of "Federal" Forces.
> 
> In the US a similar but not identical situation prevails with the National Guard system.  In peace time the National Guard reports to the State Governors, not POTUS, although they co-ordinate activities jointly.  But, in time of crisis those National Guards, or at least a portion of them can be "Federalized" and put at the disposal of POTUS and the DOD.
> 
> A Canadian system would give the Maj General of Reserves the same kind of political support as that received by the the Maj General in charge of CANSOFCOM and make them independent of the Army, Navy and Air Force.  And perhaps call them something other than Reserves.  Reserves being Army, Navy and Air Force personnel that are fully trained but off the clock.


In many ways the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Force's normal duties are similar to the Canadian Rangers but better resourced and trained. However we don't have Rangers in the majority of the country (only scattered reservists).

As a note, the National Guard system in the US is far less of a time committment (about 1/3rd as much) than our reserves. Although a FAR higher risk of activation or deployment. They are finally starting to act as if they are actually part of a total force concept. Not sure if their reserves have all that  much more of a time commitment. The Canadian Primary Reserve is more of a part-time army formation at 0.25 - 0.33 FTE.

(Personal opinion from having served in the PRes (Army and Air Force), working with the Rangers, working as a contractor for the USAR and with NG and ANG relatives). Your mileage may vary)


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> In many ways their duties are similar to the Rangers. But we don't have Rangers in the majority of the country (only scattered reservists)
> 
> As a note, the National Guard system in the US is far less of a time committment (about 1/3rd as much) than our reserves. Although a FAR higher risk of activation or deployment. They are finally starting to an as if they are actually part of a total force concept. Not sure if their reserves have all that  much more of a time commitment. The Canadian Primary Reserve is more of a part-time army formation at 0.25 - 0.33 FTE.
> 
> (Personal opinion from having served in the PRes (Army and Air Force), working as a contractor for the USAR and with NG and ANG relatives). Your mileage may vary)



Don't know about the Ukrainian Territorials - currently they seem motivated to supply full time labour.   The Danish Territorials the commitment is unpaid and entirely voluntary.  They learn as much as they like when they like and do what they like depending on the qualifications they have achieved.  It is a large force that like most voluntary organizations "normally" only contributes a few members to operations.  But the Ukrainians are demonstrating what the potential of such an organization is when the population is motivated.

And I agree, it is much more like the Canadian Rangers terms of service than the Reserves/Militia.


----------



## Remius

Israel says Putin apologized for foreign minister's Hitler remarks
					

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Thursday that Russian President Vladimir Putin had apologized for his foreign minister's comments claiming Adolf Hitler had Jewish origins.




					www.ctvnews.ca
				




Damage control?  From Putin?


----------



## Kirkhill

Meanwhile, a change in the weather...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522263281708244994

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522240847827423235
And here might be the reason why.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522229380231184389


----------



## MilEME09

Heavy salt required 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522341405695393803


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:


> Ukraine’s Territorial Defence on a War Footing - ICDS
> 
> 
> Ukraine has fought heroically against Russian aggression since 2014, with the Ukrainian territorial defence forces playing a key role. The current conflagration in 2022 shows the effectiveness of the territorial defence forces, and a few lessons have been learned.
> 
> 
> 
> icds.ee


Another change:  if you're a UKR Territorial, you may not JUST be fighting in your own backyard.  They can now be sent to where they're needed most (source).


----------



## The Bread Guy

Since the "USA invading CAN" material could generate intriguing discussion on its own, it's now in its own thread here








						Devil's Advocate:  USA invades CAN
					

Don't know about the Ukrainian Territorials - currently they seem motivated to supply full time labour.   The Danish Territorials the commitment is unpaid and entirely voluntary.  They learn as much as they like when they like and do what they like depending on the qualifications they have...




					army.ca
				



Milnet.ca Staff


----------



## The Bread Guy

Another marker laid out ....

You mean the same way RUS declared it wouldn't encroach on UKR when UKR gave up its nukes?  That kind of "agreement"?


----------



## The Bread Guy

A doozy from Pravda (yellow highlights mine) ...

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight ...


----------



## MilEME09

Super secret BTG of the farmers


----------



## The Bread Guy

One last one for the night:  intriguing story:  end of February ...








						'You know that you might die': Ontario soccer player joins Ukraine military to fight against Russia
					

Guelph, Ont., soccer player Svyatik Artemenko has traded in his cleats for combat boots, joining the Ukrainian military to fight in the war against Russia.




					kitchener.ctvnews.ca
				



... and today








						Guelph, Ont. soccer player returns to Canada after serving in Ukrainian army
					

A Guelph, Ont. soccer player who made headlines in February for enlisting in the Ukrainian army is back in Canada.




					kitchener.ctvnews.ca
				



Not necessarily anything nefarious, but UKR-born (says he's no longer a citizen)/raised in Winnipeg, leaves in February to join and returns in April to play soccer again.  Interesting they'd let a fighting-age male who'd signed up leave - although if he's not a citizen, those rules may not apply.


----------



## Skysix

As Ukrainians emerge from war ruins, US officials warn that Russia plans to start annexing territory
					

As battered, sun-starved Ukrainians trickled out from the ruins of the port city of Mariupol, Russian forces Monday pressed new bombing runs in the east




					americanmilitarynews.com
				




Since missile systems are now being Lend-Leased (wonder what the damage deposit is on an M777 lease 😁 ) why can't some Tomahawks be sent, on an airdrop pallet (like was used to convert a C-130 into a missile/bomb truck) preprogrammed with various targets in critical areas and delivered to somewhere in the western Ukraine (within their useable range to Mariupol) where the UAF has a transport or helicopter that can carry them high enough for a successful "launch"?









						Special Operations C-130 Hits Target With A 'Rapid Dragon' Pallet-Dropped Cruise Missile (Updated)
					

Rapid Dragon is intended to offer a way to quickly turn cargo planes into launch platforms for cruise missiles and potentially other payloads.




					www.thedrive.com
				




Might be also be useful oni Sevastopol, Crimea and warship targets in the Black sea


----------



## MilEME09

Next level flying along the deck


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1051949793625497600


----------



## MilEME09

Ukrainian made 2S22 155mm SPG in action


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522424016425951232


----------



## FJAG

MilEME09 said:


> Ukrainian made 2S22 155mm SPG in action
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522424016425951232


As far as I can tell its still in prototype phase. They completed a successful series of tests in January and February but there is nothing to indicate that it is even in limited production.

🍻


----------



## CBH99

The Bread Guy said:


> Another marker laid out ....
> View attachment 70561
> You mean the same way RUS declared it wouldn't encroach on UKR when UKR gave up its nukes?  That kind of "agreement"?


"Ahem... Russia?  Yeah that's OUR playbook, and we aren't quite sure about giving it up just yet.

Accuse a country of having WMD, then invade that country after they've clearly got rid of any they did potentially have while using words like naziism, fundamentalism, and terrorism to whip up domestic support?

Royalty check please."


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522437263279460352


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> Heavy salt required
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522341405695393803


Ukraine appears to now be claiming this as true within the past couple hours. This could well be firming up. Those are very new frigates, too.


----------



## The Bread Guy

A show of (lack of?) faith via Donetsk rebel media (source, archived link)

@Soldier35, any reassurances for their safety to offer up?


----------



## AlexanderM

Not saying this is real.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522585720443056131


----------



## Underway

The Bread Guy said:


> One last one for the night:  intriguing story:  end of February ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 'You know that you might die': Ontario soccer player joins Ukraine military to fight against Russia
> 
> 
> Guelph, Ont., soccer player Svyatik Artemenko has traded in his cleats for combat boots, joining the Ukrainian military to fight in the war against Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> kitchener.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ... and today
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Guelph, Ont. soccer player returns to Canada after serving in Ukrainian army
> 
> 
> A Guelph, Ont. soccer player who made headlines in February for enlisting in the Ukrainian army is back in Canada.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> kitchener.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Not necessarily anything nefarious, but UKR-born (says he's no longer a citizen)/raised in Winnipeg, leaves in February to join and returns in April to play soccer again.  Interesting they'd let a fighting-age male who'd signed up leave - although if he's not a citizen, those rules may not apply.


Ukrainins are very forward-thinking. They understand that this is their fight. If you are a foreign fighter and don't want to be there, then don't be there.  Thanks for helping in the short time you were here.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Underway said:


> Ukrainins are very forward-thinking. They understand that this is their fight. If you are a foreign fighter and don't want to be there, then don't be there.  Thanks for helping in the short time you were here.


And as others smarter than me have said upthread, better to have a keener with me while letting the weiners who don't want to be around leave.


----------



## Kirkhill

Another Ukrainian propaganda win! 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522562747824758786


----------



## TacticalTea

CBH99 said:


> "Ahem... Russia?  Yeah that's OUR playbook, and we aren't quite sure about giving it up just yet.
> 
> Accuse a country of having WMD, then invade that country after they've clearly got rid of any they did potentially have while using words like naziism, fundamentalism, and terrorism to whip up domestic support?
> 
> Royalty check please."


Are you talking about Iraq? The country that had invaded Kuwait, genocided the Kurds, was posturing as if it had nuclear weapons to intimidate its neighbours and wouldn't cooperate with the IAEA?

Doesn't seem all too comparable to Ukraine to me... Not to mention that this ''comparison'' is one of the main Russian propaganda talking points.

Sidenote: I found it comical when non-US Int agencies came out years later (somewhat recently) saying that THEY had ''correctly'' assessed that there were no WMDs. Like, bud... Logically speaking, you finding no evidence doesn't prove anything other than your inability to find the evidence.

If any apt comparisons can be drawn here, it seems to be between '02 Iraq and Russia, both having invaded neighbours, engaged in genocide, and inappropriate posturing with WMDs.

(I say that in good humour, post not to be construed as some sort of angry tirade ;P )


----------



## MilEME09

Bit more that this is a war of conquest, United Russia party leader (Putins party) visited Kherson and stated that Russia was there to stay.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522609929613455361


----------



## MilEME09

Ukrainian counter attack  continues


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522603390987120640

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522615241888215041


----------



## Kirkhill

We've been staring at each other for 77 years.  Looking over walls, fences and minefields.  Parading our kit.  And bragging up our capabilities.  You might think by this time we would have a pretty good handle on what the other guy can do.  His capabilities at least, if not his intent.

And yet there seems to be pattern of overestimating the other guy's conventional abilities.  Is that fear, caution or budget padding?  Did we see what we feared, or was it justifiable caution in the absence of total transparency, or was it gilding the lily to justify the development of new technologies and maintaining existing organizations?  Or was it some of each?

At the other end of the spectrum it is hard to remember a conventional military that has won and unconventional war.  The best of the outcomes is to hold the line for a decade or three before everybody wears out and settles.

What to make of China?  I have no real idea but I suspect that the conventional threat from China, including nuclear responses, has been radically diminished as a result of this.  We may even see Iran calm down a bit and move away from fights with heavy weapons.

But warfare by other means, diplomacy, information, military and economic is like to continue with the military effort perhaps leaning towards low level security actions, proxy conflicts, criminal engagements, outlawry, brigandage and piracy.

The next/last real conventional dust up?  China vs India?





> “It’s the fog of war and all, but I think there are fewer soldiers in the Russian armed forces than we knew,” Norberg said. “If the pre-war figures were true, if you had more [soldiers], you would add them now.
> 
> “But the Russians have not, they don’t have the force to make a decisive move against the Ukrainians,” he said. “Russia doesn’t have the conventional force to make a major move.”











						Fizzled? Faltering? 'Anemic'? Why Russia's Donbas Offensive Isn't Going Exactly As Anticipated
					

Russia’s ongoing attack in the Donbas is anything but a blitzkrieg offensive that will decisively defeat Ukrainian forces. Why that is -- and what it means for the course of the war-- is the subject of intense speculation.




					www.rferl.org


----------



## RaceAddict

Air America redux? Private jumbo jets fly US weapons for Ukraine to Europe


----------



## Colin Parkinson

TacticalTea said:


> Are you talking about Iraq? The country that had invaded Kuwait, genocided the Kurds, was posturing as if it had nuclear weapons to intimidate its neighbours and wouldn't cooperate with the IAEA?
> 
> Doesn't seem all too comparable to Ukraine to me... Not to mention that this ''comparison'' is one of the main Russian propaganda talking points.
> 
> Sidenote: I found it comical when non-US Int agencies came out years later (somewhat recently) saying that THEY had ''correctly'' assessed that there were no WMDs. Like, bud... Logically speaking, you finding no evidence doesn't prove anything other than your inability to find the evidence.
> 
> If any apt comparisons can be drawn here, it seems to be between '02 Iraq and Russia, both having invaded neighbours, engaged in genocide, and inappropriate posturing with WMDs.
> 
> (I say that in good humour, post not to be construed as some sort of angry tirade ;P )


Even Hans Blix was convinced Saddam was hiding something, going by his reports to the UNSC


----------



## MilEME09

They lost another ship? More about the potential strike on a Russian frigate, satellite data shows a fire at sea.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522586660625698816


----------



## AlexanderM

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522596897319497729


----------



## Telegrammer

The Bread Guy said:


> A show of (lack of?) faith via Donetsk rebel media (source, archived link)
> View attachment 70568



Someone recently posted a twitter thread with translated journal of an LPR fighter about how badly prepared, poorly equipped and miscoordinated their forces are (leon_spb67) and only Wagner and Chechen units helped balance the situation out somewhat.

Just stubmbled onto a DPR fighter's 3-part article about his experience in urban combat at Mariupol, and it's equally f*cked:





						Опыт боёв в Мариуполе. Отчёт КЦПН.
					

КЦПН - помощь Донбассу. Осмысляем опыт боёв в Мариуполе. Отчёт КЦПН. Штурмовой инструмент, связь. мирные жители в современной войне.  Моральный настрой и боевой дух.




					kcpn.info
				








						Опыт боёв в Мариуполе. Часть 2
					

Боевой опыт воюющего солдата. КЦПН.  Советы и рекомендации бойцам и командирам.




					kcpn.info
				








						КЦПН - опыт боёв в Мариуполе.
					

Часть 3 сборника боевого опыта солдат, воюющих на Украине.




					kcpn.info
				




(use Google Translate to translate the webpages)


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> *They lost another* ship? More about the potential strike on a Russian frigate, satellite data shows a fire at sea.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522586660625698816


Sergei...


----------



## Kirkhill

15 year old girl
Shot through the legs
Under fire
Drives a bus through a minefield because there was no one else to do it


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522613984448458752


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister



> I can say that now the Russians are changing tactics. When from the beginning they planned to capture Kyiv quickly, they threw their elite military units here, which were destroyed by our Armed Forces. That's when they had developed a plan and strategy in advance. Now they are acting on the situation, studying and analyzing our tactics, looking for weaknesses. In this war, the Russians still had an advantage in terms of personnel and weapons, but from the very beginning we prevailed in strategies, military training levels and intellectual approach. That is why the enemy has more losses, in fact it is the merit of our high military command.
> 
> On the other hand, we must not underestimate the enemy, because the enemy is powerful. Now, as I said, we see a different tactic, they have adapted to us, they act in a similar way. I recently returned from the east, I was in many field headquarters, I can say that the Russians have become more careful, they have begun to plan certain steps, not just take the number, but build a chessboard. Therefore, the war is now a little different than it was in the early days. Now it has moved to a kind of exchange of moves.





			https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress


----------



## MilEME09

Interesting thing I've come across from the counter attack in Kharkiv, Russian positions were shelled continuously for 3.5 hours by Ukrainian forces. This tells me western guns are in use there to out range Russia to prevent counter battery fire. Which is likely enabling Ukrainian success.


----------



## Kirkhill

From the same source - The Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister



> At the same time, we still need multiple rocket launchers with a range of more than 40 km, anti-ship missiles, tanks, armored vehicles, as well as 155 mm caliber artillery and aircraft. But we try to talk as little as possible about arrangements and supplies. Because from the first days of the war, *the Russians have already disrupted several arms supplies to us. They are experienced "KGBists", they have their own agency everywhere and they work quite subtly, at the level of Western middle-ranking officials, political parties loyal to them in the parliaments of different countries.
> 
> Western governments do not support Russia, but if there is one person in the chain integrated into Russian ties, this may already be a problem.*
> 
> On several occasions, the Russians also disrupted our transit of aid to Ukraine, which, for obvious reasons, is mostly terrestrial. If transit takes place in several countries, they try to slow it down, or make it impossible at all. Because arms transits are a very specific thing that requires both top-level permits and special protocols. That is why criminal liability has even been introduced for disclosing information on international technical assistance. Often this is: "Hurray! They brought us javelins! ” ended up breaking contracts.



Not every problem is just bad luck.  Some times some people are actively opposed.


----------



## OldSolduer

Kirkhill said:


> Not every problem is just bad luck.  Some times some people are actively opposed.


While appearing to be wholly in support of Ukraine. 

The KGB of the 70s and 80s sent sleeper agents into the USA and UK.  Be careful who you trust.


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> Interesting thing I've come across from the counter attack in Kharkiv, Russian positions were shelled continuously for 3.5 hours by Ukrainian forces. This tells me western guns are in use there to out range Russia to prevent counter battery fire. Which is likely enabling Ukrainian success.



But they may only be able to reach 40 km.  They want to reach farther - HIMARS and GMRLS for example.


----------



## Kirkhill

OldSolduer said:


> While appearing to be wholly in support of Ukraine.
> 
> The KGB of the 70s and 80s sent sleeper agents into the USA and UK.  Be careful who you trust.



I would add its not just the Russians doing the infiltrating and its not just the USA and UK that have been infiltrated.
Be careful who you trust indeed.


----------



## daftandbarmy

OldSolduer said:


> While appearing to be wholly in support of Ukraine.
> 
> The KGB of the 70s and 80s sent sleeper agents into the USA and UK.  *And Canada*. Be careful who you trust.



There, FTFY 



Even after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia continued sending “illegals” to Canada to assume false identities, often chosen by “tombstoning” — trolling graveyards looking for deceased children whose lives they could exploit.

In 1996, CSIS caught a pair of Russian spies who were living in Toronto as a married couple, Ian and Laurie Lambert. They were using the identities of two Canadians who died as infants.









						‘A very capable spy’: Book reveals how RCMP caught KGB agent posing as Canadian - National | Globalnews.ca
					

In Dead Doubles, Trevor Barnes mines newly-declassified MI-5 files to tell the story of the hunt for the Portland Spy Ring.




					globalnews.ca


----------



## AlexanderM

Kirkhill said:


> But they may only be able to reach 40 km.  They want to reach farther - HIMARS and GMRLS for example.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522140597469028354









						Modern US M270 or HIMARS Already Destroys russians, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Gives a Hint | Defense Express
					

M270 and M142 HIMARS are universal launchers capable of firing everything: starting from unguided missiles to tactical ATACMS ballistic missiles




					en.defence-ua.com


----------



## Kirkhill

AlexanderM said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522140597469028354
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Modern US M270 or HIMARS Already Destroys russians, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Gives a Hint | Defense Express
> 
> 
> M270 and M142 HIMARS are universal launchers capable of firing everything: starting from unguided missiles to tactical ATACMS ballistic missiles
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.defence-ua.com




I think the presence of the launchers has been acknowledged.  But what rockets and missiles have been provided?   Seeing as how the Russians have been using "cluster munitions" is there any chance of the Ukrainians getting some of the original Grid Square Removal System rockets?


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> I think the presence of the launchers has been acknowledged.  But what rockets and missiles have been provided?   Seeing as how the Russians have been using "cluster munitions" is there any chance of the Ukrainians getting some of the original Grid Square Removal System rockets?


Probably, but only used outside of towns and cities


----------



## McG

Kirkhill said:


> is there any chance of the Ukrainians getting some of the original Grid Square Removal System rockets?


It would seem that Ukraine is not a party to the convention banning cluster munitions, so they could accept DPICM & other cluster munitions from the US.  But, as noted above, they will really not want to use them in any urban environments.






						UNTC
					

This is the United Nations Treaty Collection homepage. Here you will find related information and links.



					treaties.un.org


----------



## Kirkhill

McG said:


> It would seem that Ukraine is not a party to the convention banning cluster munitions, so they could accept DPICM & other cluster munitions from the US.  But, as noted above, they will really not want to use them in any urban environments.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> UNTC
> 
> 
> This is the United Nations Treaty Collection homepage. Here you will find related information and links.
> 
> 
> 
> treaties.un.org



That could complicate matters - a lot of small farming villages and hamlets, not to mention a lot of working fields.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522697650004393984
That's a lot of arty destroyed


----------



## Skysix

Well  the civilian residents know when the bridge will be taken out, so if they want to head East now is the time. The port and any military infrastructure are ok targets.


----------



## CBH99

TacticalTea said:


> Are you talking about Iraq? The country that had invaded Kuwait, genocided the Kurds, was posturing as if it had nuclear weapons to intimidate its neighbours and wouldn't cooperate with the IAEA?
> 
> Doesn't seem all too comparable to Ukraine to me... Not to mention that this ''comparison'' is one of the main Russian propaganda talking points.
> 
> Sidenote: I found it comical when non-US Int agencies came out years later (somewhat recently) saying that THEY had ''correctly'' assessed that there were no WMDs. Like, bud... Logically speaking, you finding no evidence doesn't prove anything other than your inability to find the evidence.
> 
> If any apt comparisons can be drawn here, it seems to be between '02 Iraq and Russia, both having invaded neighbours, engaged in genocide, and inappropriate posturing with WMDs.
> 
> (I say that in good humour, post not to be construed as some sort of angry tirade ;P )


Oh don’t worry, I read it as such.  My post was sarcastic in nature, not to be taken too seriously 😋

Russia’s claim that they needed to invade because the Ukrainian nuclear weapons were a threat to global peace just had none chuckling & shaking my head


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> That could complicate matters - a lot of small farming villages and hamlets, not to mention a lot of working fields.


Just shoot them into Russia….


----------



## The Bread Guy

Telegrammer said:


> ... Just stubmbled onto a DPR fighter's 3-part article about his experience in urban combat at Mariupol, and it's equally f*cked:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Опыт боёв в Мариуполе. Отчёт КЦПН.
> 
> 
> КЦПН - помощь Донбассу. Осмысляем опыт боёв в Мариуполе. Отчёт КЦПН. Штурмовой инструмент, связь. мирные жители в современной войне.  Моральный настрой и боевой дух.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> kcpn.info
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Опыт боёв в Мариуполе. Часть 2
> 
> 
> Боевой опыт воюющего солдата. КЦПН.  Советы и рекомендации бойцам и командирам.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> kcpn.info
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> КЦПН - опыт боёв в Мариуполе.
> 
> 
> Часть 3 сборника боевого опыта солдат, воюющих на Украине.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> kcpn.info
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> (use Google Translate to translate the webpages)


Very interesting stuff, especially from a site raising money for "Novorossia's" fight against "Ukrainian Nazism" - always intriguing seeing what all sides are sharing.

#NothingHasEverythingButEverythingHasSomething


----------



## Weinie

AlexanderM said:


> Not saying this is real.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522585720443056131


I have not seen any confirmation as of yet, that this actually occurred. But if it did, it offers an intriguing inference.

Gulf War I presented a damning indictment of Soviet equipment, Challengers and Abrams obliterated Iraqi tank forces. 

For all the conjecture around Russian Naval forces, it appears that they have been over-hyped ITO actual capabilities.


----------



## KevinB

Weinie said:


> I have not seen any confirmation as of yet, that this actually occurred. But if it did, it offers an intriguing inference.
> 
> Gulf War I presented a damning indictment of Soviet equipment, Challengers and Abrams obliterated Iraqi tank forces.
> 
> For all the conjecture around Russian Naval forces, it appears that they have been over-hyped ITO actual capabilities.


Hey, those Super Yatchs just didn’t build themselves, it took decades to siphon those funds out of the Russian MoD.


----------



## Weinie

KevinB said:


> Hey, those Super Yatchs just didn’t build themselves, it took decades to siphon those funds out of the Russian MoD.


And I think that the Ukrainians will have a ready market for export of Neptune missiles for those facing Russian naval antagonism.


----------



## NavyShooter

I wonder if someone's going to have to update their fish-tank?


----------



## MilEME09

Fueled by dreams of victory Russia pushes on, I agree with many that Russia really needs to transition to defensive ops, but I am happy for them to keep pushing and grinding them selves down.


----------



## OldSolduer

MilEME09 said:


> Fueled by dreams   delusions of victory Russia pushes on, I agree with many that Russia really needs to transition to defensive ops, but I am happy for them to keep pushing and grinding them selves down.


FTFY


----------



## Weinie

MilEME09 said:


> Fueled by dreams of victory Russia pushes on, I agree with many that Russia really needs to transition to defensive ops, but I am happy for them to keep pushing and grinding them selves down. *I only fear what comes next.*


Added what needs to be considered in this discussion.


----------



## MilEME09

Weinie said:


> Added what needs to be considered in this discussion.


May 9th will decide my level of fear over the situation


----------



## Furniture

MilEME09 said:


> May 9th will decide my level of fear over the situation


There is no need to fear, none of us have any say in how this will unfold. 

To steal a quote from a cinematic masterpiece:

_Ahmed Ibn Fahdlan __: How can you sleep at a time like this?
Herger the Joyous : The All-Father wove the skein of your life a long time ago. Go and hide in a hole if you wish, but you won't live one instant longer. Your fate is fixed. *Fear profits a man nothing*._


----------



## CBH99

Furniture said:


> There is no need to fear, none of us have any say in how this will unfold.
> 
> To steal a quote from a cinematic masterpiece:
> 
> _Ahmed Ibn Fahdlan __: How can you sleep at a time like this?
> Herger the Joyous : The All-Father wove the skein of your life a long time ago. Go and hide in a hole if you wish, but you won't live one instant longer. Your fate is fixed. *Fear profits a man nothing*._


I’m also waiting to see what May 9 has in store for this conflict…

Perhaps it has absolutely nothing in store, in terms of complicating the conflict with new capabilities.  

Perhaps it will be an extremely tailored PR campaign aimed at recruiting more young people to take up a noble fight, while paying tribute to those who have done so before them.

Or perhaps Russia takes the next step of ‘Escalating to De-Escalate’ now that their land campaign has hit some serious snags, the Air Force is afraid to fly over contested areas & has lost a bulk of their combat aircraft fleet, and the naval forces nearby have had their capabilities decimated.  



What form that escalation may take?  I think we’re all venturing some similar guesses, and we’re all hoping we are wrong.  

(The somewhat verified rumours surrounding the sinking of the flag ship have me far more open to this possibility than I would have been otherwise.)


----------



## NavyShooter

Bayraktar strike on a landing ship - supposedly at Snake Island, possibly with a TOR AA vehicle onboard.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, back home, Team USSR 2.0 has cobbled together 11K troops (including cadets, admittedly) and 131 pieces of hardware (including some WW2 stuff still rolling) for a 9 May rehearsal parade today, according to the info-machine (archived link to RUS MoD statement) - some pix ...





More from MSM (Associated Press) here ....








						Russia holds dress rehearsal for Victory Day parade
					

MOSCOW (AP) — Russia held a dress rehearsal on Saturday for the military parade to commemorate Victory Day on May 9, when the country marks the defeat of Nazi Germany during World War II. This year’s Victory Day, which falls on Monday, won’t just honor a conflict that ended 77 years ago.




					apnews.com


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522815718999289856


----------



## RangerRay

I thought I heard back in the Cold War days, the Soviets would just keep rolling the same ranks and missiles around in a circle to make it look like a never ending line of weaponry. I also recall hearing those armoured vehicles were given fresh coats of paint to cover up the rust and leaks.

Potemkin army indeed.


----------



## GR66

Two items reported on by the BBC Live coverage which give at least a slight glimmer of hope that there could possibly be some room for a negotiated end to the hostilities:



> Russia won't use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, says official​
> Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty Images
> Russia will not use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, foreign ministry spokesman Alexei Zaitsev has said.
> Western officials have recently publicly discussed concerns about the risks of Russia using nuclear weapons.
> CIA intelligence director William Burns said on 14 April, "none of us can take lightly" the threat posed by tactical nuclear weapons or low-yield nuclear weapons by Russia in the Ukraine war.
> 
> and
> 
> Ukraine war: Russia must withdraw to pre-invasion position for a deal - Zelensky​Published13 hours ago
> Share
> Related Topics
> 
> Russia-Ukraine war
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> IMAGE SOURCE,EPA
> Image caption,
> Fifty civilians were able to leave the Mariupol steelworks on Friday
> *Any peace deal with Russia would depend on Russian forces pulling back to their pre-invasion positions, Ukraine's president says.*
> Speaking to a London think tank, Volodymyr Zelensky said that was the minimum that his country could accept.
> He said he was the leader of "Ukraine, not a mini-Ukraine". But he did not mention Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014.



Toning down the nuclear rhetoric on Russia's side and accepting a return to the Feb 24th start line (allowing Russia to claim no loss of territory) by the Ukrainian side I believe are good first steps in establishing some kind of framework around which a negotiated end to hostilities could begin to be build.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522545621558779908


----------



## Jarnhamar

Can you imagine doing the vehicle annex for the Russians big parade?

"We're doing a historical theme so most of our vehicles will be vintage WW2 era this year....".

Edit Oops. late to the party. Just seen the above posts.


----------



## MilEME09

Jarnhamar said:


> Can you imagine doing the vehicle annex for the Russians big parade?
> 
> "We're doing a historical theme so most of our vehicles will be vintage WW2 era this year....".


I am hoping something happens on the 9th that embarrasses Russia. Loosing the bridge in Crimea, vehicles breaking down on parade, or something else. Ukraine being in the offensive opens the possibility for things to not look good for Russia this week


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522962727853080578

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522970857462972416
More 777 action


----------



## RaceAddict

RangerRay said:


> I thought I heard back in the Cold War days, the Soviets would just keep rolling the same ranks and missiles around in a circle to make it look like a never ending line of weaponry. I also recall hearing those armoured vehicles were given fresh coats of paint to cover up the rust and leaks.
> 
> Potemkin army indeed.



I've also read/heard various accounts of the ICBMs in Soviet era  parades actually being fake... just big tubes painted green and perched on top of trucks, or defunct/failed programs re-tooled to look different rolling down the parade route on their launchers.


----------



## MilEME09

RaceAddict said:


> I've also read/heard various accounts of the ICBMs in Soviet era  parades actually being fake... just big tubes painted green and perched on top of trucks, or defunct/failed programs re-tooled to look different rolling down the parade route on their launchers.


not surprised, to look like they were meeting qoutas most tank plants actually only had several rows of working tanks for inspection, they rest were shells but it was enough to fool inspectors.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Meanwhile, under fire while having a snack...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1516453232243093506


----------



## JLB50

RaceAddict said:


> I've also read/heard various accounts of the ICBMs in Soviet era  parades actually being fake... just big tubes painted green and perched on top of trucks, or defunct/failed programs re-tooled to look different rolling down the parade route on their launchers.


About 10 or so years back, I remember reading a biography of Krushchev in which the author stated the same thing about the USSR regularly using fake missiles for their important military parades.  I wonder who made the tires used to parade those missiles.  
​


----------



## TacticalTea

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522991275859152896
I share Mr O'Brien's sentiment on this, but, bringing out the ole faithful: big if true!


----------



## TacticalTea

.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Jarnhamar said:


> "We're doing a historical theme so most of our vehicles will be vintage WW2 era this year....".


"... before we send what's still working west to fight the Ukrainian Nazis.  There's still _some_ working, right?"


----------



## Maxman1

daftandbarmy said:


> Or Archie Bunker...



At least Archie didn't look like a bag in uniform.


----------



## The Bread Guy

When you go even a bit public, you risk getting picked up by the other side's info-machine - this from La Presse on Wali's return ....








						Retour du tireur d'élite Wali | « La guerre, c’est une déception terrible »
					

Deux mois après avoir répondu à l’appel du président Volodymyr Zelensky, le tireur d’élite Wali est de retour au Québec – indemne, bien qu’il ait failli y laisser sa peau « plusieurs fois ». Mais la plupart des combattants étrangers qui se sont rendus en Ukraine comme lui en sont revenus...




					www.lapresse.ca
				



... (Google English version from the French here) and this from RUS state media from La Presse

From from Russia Today here (archived link)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Interesting analysis of how much Canada can make up for less UKR wheat on the market - via UKR media ....








						Thanks Anyway, Canada: No Stopgap For Global Wheat Supply   - KyivPost - Ukraine's Global Voice
					

The same day in mid-April as Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that Ukraine’s 2022 spring seeding… - May. 07, 2022. By Marusia Kaweski




					www.kyivpost.com


----------



## MilEME09

Forest fires burning all over Russia, normally the army helps fight these, but they are all in Ukraine so local fire fighters are overwhelmed. With major fires in 33 different oblasts across russia.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523020857777418240


----------



## MilEME09

Karma


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523021564765110272


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> Karma
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523021564765110272


... and here's the order (virus-free PDF) if you can read Russian


----------



## MilEME09

UAF striking snake island 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523031819133857793


----------



## Kirkhill

Seems like the Ukrainians are on the move in Kharkiv - Not just in the north but also in the south.   After pushing a pontoon across east of Izyum, behind the Russians pushing towards Barkinhove the Ukrainians are now advancing on Izyum from east and west.



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522626259804733442

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522650203362406403

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522832443069419520

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522865522379010048

This Map GIF is from Nathan Ruser via Phillips O'Brien.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522871820487372800



There is a suspicion that this is due to the change in the artillery picture - longer range, more precise western artillery.

I thought we were investigating Extended Range Cannons because the Russians had the longer ranged guns?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522958039497646081


----------



## MilEME09

Ukrainian gunners showing us all up


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523075146570821632

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523071419449749504


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> Ukrainian gunners showing us all up
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523075146570821632
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523071419449749504



... probably with our guns, and Excalibur ammo


----------



## MilEME09

Past 24h around Izyum, fires suggest perhaps a pincher style counter attack?


----------



## FJAG

RaceAddict said:


> I've also read/heard various accounts of the ICBMs in Soviet era  parades actually being fake... just big tubes painted green and perched on top of trucks, or defunct/failed programs re-tooled to look different rolling down the parade route on their launchers.


Why would you role a live ICBM down Red Square? The tanks aren't carrying ammunition. The rifles are all unloaded. Why would you expect to have an actual missile loaded in the launcher?


----------



## RaceAddict

FJAG said:


> Why would you role a live ICBM down Red Square? The tanks aren't carrying ammunition. The rifles are all unloaded. Why would you expect to have an actual missile loaded in the launcher?



Not saying it would be a _live _ICBM, but if they were as powerful as they claimed to be at that time, it also wouldn't be concrete sewer pipes with plywood fins stuck on the sides. The tanks in Red Square were still tanks... they weren't Ladas and Zils with cardboard mock-up bodies.


----------



## Remius

I’m looking forward to all the real tractors, captured kit and Javelin troops in Kiev when Ukraine has its own victory day parade


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522630511457406981


----------



## CBH99

TacticalTea said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522991275859152896
> I share Mr O'Brien's sentiment on this, but, bringing out the ole faithful: big if true!


I’m actually not trying to sound professionally arrogant or dismissive of our enemy.  

Like anywhere, some members perform above & beyond what’s expected - while others don’t quite soldier up to the standard we want them to. 


BUUUTTT… generally speaking, the Russian army hasn’t performed well here by any means.  I wonder if we will see any noticeable change in their performance when the recruits with 4 days of training start to constitute a bulk of their forces.  🧐🤨


----------



## RangerRay

MilEME09 said:


> Ukrainian gunners showing us all up
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523075146570821632
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523071419449749504


Jeez the accuracy of those guns is stunning. What’s this mean for the future of warfare if guns can accurately destroy units from a distance like that with UAV’s?   Canada better get with it an join the 21st century.


----------



## MilEME09

RangerRay said:


> Jeez the accuracy of those guns is stunning. What’s this mean for the future of warfare if guns can accurately destroy units from a distance like that with UAV’s?   Canada better get with it an join the 21st century.


To be fair, experience helps, they probably done a few dozen fire missions between the time I post this, and the time you read it. They have mastered bracketing the enemy, as have spotters likely mastered calling it in.


----------



## FJAG

RangerRay said:


> Jeez the accuracy of those guns is stunning. What’s this mean for the future of warfare if guns can accurately destroy units from a distance like that with UAV’s?   Canada better get with it an join the 21st century.


We've had Excalibur for our M777s since 2007.

🍻


----------



## Skysix




----------



## The Bread Guy

From today's VE Day message from the Kremlin info-machine (Google English translation) ....


> ... In his congratulatory telegrams to the heads of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, the Russian leader noted that today our servicemen, like their ancestors, are fighting shoulder to shoulder for the liberation of their native land from Nazi filth, expressing confidence that, as in 1945, victory will be ours ...


Original in Russian attached


----------



## Prairie canuck

Trudeau reportedly in Irpin today.
Canadian prime minister visits Irpin


----------



## McG

Good.


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523179835673440257


----------



## MilEME09

Prairie canuck said:


> Trudeau reportedly in Irpin today.
> Canadian prime minister visits Irpin




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523307229738602497

Wonder if this will have a positive benefit for his government, and ukrainian aid. Surprised the MND wasn't with him.


----------



## brihard

Evan Solomon is reporting that Trudeau, Freeland, and Joly visited.

CTV has Trudeau raising the Canadian flag over our embassy in Kyiv.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523303970571452416
I wouldn't be surprised if the Defence Minister made the trip across the pond, but has a different itinerary.


----------



## WLSC

brihard said:


> Evan Solomon is reporting that Trudeau, Freeland, and Joly visited.
> 
> CTV has Trudeau raising the Canadian flag over our embassy in Kyiv.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523303970571452416
> I wouldn't be surprised if the Defence Minister made the trip across the pond, but has a different itinerary.


Or home, because you know, it a war zone and officially, you don’t want everyone in the same plane.  I don’t think it will be a big eye opening tour when the « Canada is not a military power » delegate are there.


----------



## Kirkhill

Some interesting charting from Phillips O'Brien - The kill rate on tanks has been fairly matched to the intensity of combat over the last 10 weeks, and especially since the Russians began their Apr 18th offensive.  That continues and relates to the intensity of combat.  The harder the Russians try the more Russian tanks die.

On the other hand Arty losses have been quite flat.   Until May 2 when there was a 4 day spike.  That spike seems to be levelling off though.  


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523200622706655233


----------



## Kirkhill

And this is interesting

Russian commentator on Russian TV explaining why mobilization won't get Russia very far very fast.  It will take years to fix the Russian army.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523036461595242498


----------



## brihard

Kirkhill said:


> And this is interesting
> 
> Russian commentator on Russian TV explaining why mobilization won't get Russia very far very fast.  It will take years to fix the Russian army.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523036461595242498


Right. Just think of the garbage they will be conscripting, and what trying to ramp up training would look like. Every single instructor would be an opportunity cost analysis of do we want this guy teaching, or do we want him fighting? Then you take Russia's already atrocious issue with hazing and generally ineffective leadership, and entrust that system to people who have just come out of getting the shit kicked out of them in Ukraine. I cannot imagine that the quality of Russian soldiery, already pretty bad to begin with, will get any better if there's a mass mobilization. Essentially they can't do much more than abuse the shit out of their fighting age male population for a month or two, hand them AKs, point,a nd say 'go be angry in that direction'.

Cannon fodder. Utter cannon fodder. Half of Russia's next generation of engineers, scientists, poets, novelists, statesmen, diplomats, economists, lawyers, surgeons, and programmers stand to either die or be crippled on the battlefield, or survive to come back profoundly fucked up. Russia may break an entire generation on the Ukrainian steppe, and set itself back fifty years.

Russia has committed its greatness to the war in Ukraine, and that greatness stands to die curled up, weeping in the bottom of a trench. Russia can still back out of this, but if it doesn't, its days as a great power are done.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Well, well, well ...








						Canadian PM Justin Trudeau visits Irpin in Ukraine, says mayor
					

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made an unannounced visit on Sunday to the Ukrainian town of Irpin, which was retaken from Russian troops in late March after fierce fighting, the town's mayor said on Telegram.




					www.reuters.com
				



This from the Telegram post from the Mayor of Irpin that outed him (original in Ukrainian)...


> Markushin Alexander
> 
> He has just had the honor of speaking with the Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau. He came to Irpin to see with his own eyes all the horror that the Russian occupiers had done to our city. And, of course, he was shocked. After all, he saw burned and completely destroyed not military facilities, but the homes of Irpin residents, who until recently enjoyed life and had their own plans for the future.
> 
> My sincere thanks to Mr. Trudeau for the support that Canada is providing to Ukraine today. We believe in further cooperation between our countries and the reconstruction of Ukrainian cities after our victory. I hope for the support of Mr. Justin Trudeau in organizing the efforts of the Ukrainian diaspora in Canada to rebuild infrastructure in Irpen. Irpin will address the relevant official letters in the near future.
> 
> t.me/markushyn/2361
> 120.3K views
> May 8 at 09:31


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> Well, well, well ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canadian PM Justin Trudeau visits Irpin in Ukraine, says mayor
> 
> 
> Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made an unannounced visit on Sunday to the Ukrainian town of Irpin, which was retaken from Russian troops in late March after fierce fighting, the town's mayor said on Telegram.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This from the Telegram post from the Mayor of Irpin that outed him (original in Ukrainian)...


PM of photo ops will send thoughts and prayers.


----------



## MilEME09

Oops


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523305921983975426


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> PM of photo ops will send thoughts and prayers.


And proving once again that "all news is local" here's the U.S. national wire service's version of the story shared (and likely headlined) by Idaho media  ...








						First Lady Jill Biden and Canadian PM Justin Trudeau make surprise visits to Ukraine
					

Jill Biden has made an unannounced visit to western Ukraine, where she held a surprise Mother’s Day meeting with the first lady Olena Zelenska to show U.S. support for the embattled nation.




					www.kivitv.com


----------



## GK .Dundas

[/QUOTE]





The Bread Guy said:


> And proving once again that "all news is local" here's the U.S. national wire service's version of the story shared (and likely headlined) by Idaho media  ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> First Lady Jill Biden and Canadian PM Justin Trudeau make surprise visits to Ukraine
> 
> 
> Jill Biden has made an unannounced visit to western Ukraine, where she held a surprise Mother’s Day meeting with the first lady Olena Zelenska to show U.S. support for the embattled nation.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.kivitv.com


Reminds me.of the New York Times coverage of Deippe where  somewhere amongst the roughly 5000Canadian troops were some 50 US.Army Rangers. 
Headline read, "Yanks land in  Europe !"


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523344183653634048
Meanwhile 22hours remaining


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522075012458586114


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523344183653634048
> Meanwhile 22hours remaining
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522075012458586114


Colour me super skeptical about the whole bridge clock. Fun psyop though.


----------



## daftandbarmy

You know who you are... carry on


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Anyone else find it rather telling that Le Dauphin was not meeting with President Zelensky?


----------



## Skysix

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523196931149004800


----------



## brihard

rmc_wannabe said:


> Anyone else find it rather telling that Le Dauphin was not meeting with President Zelensky?


What are you talking about? He did meet with him. You’re letting partisanship get in the way of facts here.


----------



## JLB50

brihard said:


> Evan Solomon is reporting that Trudeau, Freeland, and Joly visited.
> 
> CTV has Trudeau raising the Canadian flag over our embassy in Kyiv.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523303970571452416
> I wouldn't be surprised if the Defence Minister made the trip across the pond, but has a different itinerary.


I’m a bit surprised that Trudeau, Freeland and Joly went at the same time.  Does Canada have a ”designated survivor” policy similar to that of the U.S. in case the head/heads of government are killed or disabled?


----------



## MilEME09

JLB50 said:


> I’m a bit surprised that Trudeau, Freeland and Joly went at the same time.  Does Canada have a ”designated survivor” policy similar to that of the U.S. in case the head/heads of government are killed or disabled?


Maybe that's why the MND wasn't there?


----------



## suffolkowner

Kirkhill said:


> I thought we were investigating Extended Range Cannons because the Russians had the longer ranged guns?


I thought this too


----------



## suffolkowner

JLB50 said:


> I’m a bit surprised that Trudeau, Freeland and Joly went at the same time.  Does Canada have a ”designated survivor” policy similar to that of the U.S. in case the head/heads of government are killed or disabled?


Not exactly there is an order of Precedence within the Ministry though









						29th Canadian Ministry - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




I'm pretty sure before appointing a new PM the GG would assure that there was caucus support for the candidate


----------



## Good2Golf

JLB50 said:


> I’m a bit surprised that Trudeau, Freeland and Joly went at the same time.  Does Canada have a ”designated survivor” policy similar to that of the U.S. in case the head/heads of government are killed or disabled?


Some would say that there should only be one key VIP per movement, so taking Freeland into account, I think that trip is compliant.  Anand separate from Freeland complies.


----------



## Booter

JLB50 said:


> I’m a bit surprised that Trudeau, Freeland and Joly went at the same time.  Does Canada have a ”designated survivor” policy similar to that of the U.S. in case the head/heads of government are killed or disabled?


There is a hat on PM Trudeaus desk with a bunch of papers in it. When a decision is needed you just pull one out.


----------



## MilEME09

Booter said:


> There is a hat on PM Trudeaus desk with a bunch of papers in it. When a decision is needed you just pull one out.


Half say "ummmm"


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> Half say "ummmm"


Actially, I think it’s one quarter say “ummmmm” and one quarter say “uhhhhh”


----------



## Gunnar

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523377333784117249


----------



## MilEME09

Amazing how fast things are done without environmental assessments, reviews, committee studies...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522976325706821632


----------



## NavyShooter

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523326312449937411
There's a pretty good read on the MI-8 hit on Snake Island.


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR Pres info-machine's version of Canada's drop in ...


> President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau  who is on a visit to our country.
> 
> During the negotiations, the parties discussed Canada's support for our state in the struggle for independence and territorial integrity, as well as a number of bilateral issues.
> 
> "The people of Ukraine and Canada stand side by side in the struggle for freedom against tyranny that Russia is trying to spread," Volodymyr Zelenskyy said during a meeting with media representatives following negotiations with Justin Trudeau.
> 
> "The subject of our talks today was what we must do to liberate our territory from the occupiers as soon as possible, to return normal life to all Ukrainians. Canada's defense support for Ukraine was discussed in detail," the President said.
> 
> According to the President, he informed the Prime Minister of Canada about the weapons that Ukraine needs to move faster to victory.
> 
> Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that the Canadian delegation had the opportunity to visit today the suburbs of Kyiv, which was liberated from the occupiers, and see for themselves what destruction Russia leaves on our land. In this context, he called Canada's support for demining the de-occupied territories extremely important.
> 
> "The Russian occupiers left thousands of mines, thousands of tripwire mines and shells. They are a threat to our people, our children. And today we have agreed to establish maximum cooperation in this direction, so that there are no such "exclusion zones" left in Ukraine, which cannot be entered due to the threat of Russian mines," the President said.
> 
> The Head of State called economic support for Ukraine no less important.
> 
> "Post-war reconstruction requires clear, bold, ambitious decisions comparable to the historic Marshall Plan. We agreed to work together to make this a reality," he said.
> 
> Volodymyr Zelenskyy also noted that negotiations are underway with the Canadian side to lift trade restrictions for Ukrainian exporters, which will greatly help our economy.
> 
> In addition, the President announced his intention to continue discussions on the abolition of the visa regime for citizens of Ukraine.
> 
> "I am grateful to your team, I am grateful to each and everyone who is here with us today in words, in deeds and in personal presence. Together with us at such a difficult time," said Volodymyr Zelenskyy, addressing Justin Trudeau.
> 
> For his part, the Prime Minister of Canada reaffirmed the unwavering support for Ukraine, including financial and humanitarian support. Regarding arms assistance, he said Canada would provide anti-tank systems, satellite communications equipment and more.
> 
> "We will provide everything needed and fund demining efforts," he added.
> 
> The Prime Minister of Canada also assured of further assistance in the abolition of customs duties on imports from Ukraine.
> 
> He noted that today he visited Irpin and saw with his own eyes the terrible consequences of the Russian occupation.
> 
> "Obviously, Vladimir Putin is responsible for his heinous war crimes, and Canada will continue to support Ukraine in this war against Russia. We will stand side by side with you in this beautiful capital, which is full of light, culture and history. We will stay with you for years, decades and centuries to fight tyranny, and Putin and his allies will see that Ukraine will win," said Justin Trudeau.
> 
> He also announced the resumption of the work of the Canadian embassy in Kyiv.
> 
> At the end of the meeting, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in the presence of Justin Trudeau, presented state awards to Ukrainian rescuers who took part in the demining, using, in particular, Canadian equipment. Among the awarded was the dog Patron who was taught pyrotechnic work by his owner, Major of the Civil Protection Service Mykhailo Iliev. There are already 236 explosive devices found by Patron. In addition, the dog, along with pyrotechnics, is actively involved in mine security education. Children love him especially, and thanks to Patron they perceive information better.
> 
> "Today I want to award those Ukrainian heroes who are already clearing our land of mines. And together with our heroes - a wonderful little sapper Patron who helps not only to neutralize explosives, but also to teach our children the necessary safety rules in areas where there is a mine threat," said the President of Ukraine.


----------



## Remius

brihard said:


> What are you talking about? He did meet with him. You’re letting partisanship get in the way of facts here.


One side of the narrative wants to criticize him for going and he goes and they still will criticize.

He went and he went with two other high profile ministers working on this, one who has actual,Ukrainian decent, speaks the language and has played a big part in how the west deals with Russia.   Ukraine is happy with it.  Leave it at that and take what wins we can get.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Interesting take from UKR state media ...








						Canada to provide NLAW and other anti-tank weapons to Ukraine – Trudeau
					

Canada will provide NLAW and other anti-tank weapons to Ukraine, as well as fund demining efforts within the areas liberated from Russian invaders. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				



Really?  Here's what the PM's info-machine says ....


> ... Providing an additional $50 million in military assistance, which builds on recent contributions of artillery, ammunition, and civilian-pattern light armoured vehicles:
> 
> 18 drone cameras, including in-service support and repair,
> $15 million of high-resolution satellite imagery,
> Up to $1 million in small arms and related ammunition, and
> Additional ammunition for M777 howitzers ...


----------



## MilEME09

Another BTG and then some of tanks gone


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523422255681658881


----------



## Czech_pivo

JLB50 said:


> I’m a bit surprised that Trudeau, Freeland and Joly went at the same time.  Does Canada have a ”designated survivor” policy similar to that of the U.S. in case the head/heads of government are killed or disabled?


Yes, it’s a warm potato with chives and sour cream, lol.


----------



## Kirkhill

Why does it appear that Russia has been over estimated?

This chap says an unhealthy obsession with numbers.









						A Potemkin Military? Russia’s Over-Estimated Legions | CEPA
					

An unhealthy obsession with numbers can explain the West’s misreading of Russia’s military capabilities. There’s no other explanation of this overestimation




					cepa.org
				





Computers and McNamara.   WW2 created the Soviets, the Bomb, the computer, Bell Laboratories and McNamara.









						Robert McNamara - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## daftandbarmy

The Bread Guy said:


> Interesting take from UKR state media ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada to provide NLAW and other anti-tank weapons to Ukraine – Trudeau
> 
> 
> Canada will provide NLAW and other anti-tank weapons to Ukraine, as well as fund demining efforts within the areas liberated from Russian invaders. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Really?  Here's what the PM's info-machine says ....



Whoa, we have NLAW? Canada?


----------



## The Bread Guy

daftandbarmy said:


> Whoa, we have NLAW? Canada?


Not for long if UKR state media is to be believed ....


----------



## CBH99

I say let’s go with the UKR version!  

The idea that we have NLAW, and enough excess we can donate them to the warfighters, makes us sound _a lot_ more Badass than we really are.


----------



## daftandbarmy

I assume they're doing this to ensure donations from the NRA  


Ukrainian replica of AR-15 assault rifle is much better than Russian AK, Kyiv says​ 
_KYIV, (BM) _– The National Guard of Ukraine has begun re-equipping some units in accordance with NATO standards, learned BulgarianMilitary.com citing the structure’s press service statement.

It is noted that the first batch of Ukrainian-made UAR-15 assault rifles were received by the security forces in Kharkov and tested the weapon at the shooting ranges. The UAR-15 rifle is manufactured by the Ukrainian enterprise Zbroyar from American and domestic components.

Separately, the report notes that the UAR-15 is more ergonomic and more convenient than the Kalashnikov assault rifle.

_“Also the UAR-15 rifle has better accuracy than the Kalashnikov assault rifle. The barrel and the trigger mechanism, on which the latter characteristic directly depends, are manufactured in the USA,”_ the press service quotes one of the soldiers.

Recall that on July 20, after state tests and controlled operation, the Dozor-B tactical combat wheeled vehicle entered service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The machine was developed by the specialists of the Kharkov Design Bureau for Mechanical Engineering named after Morozov, it was manufactured in Lvov.

*More about UAR-15*

Zbroyar Z-15 is a Ukrainian semi-automatic self-loading rifle with a rotary shutter and automatics based on the removal of gases produced by Zbroyar LLC. Manufactured under license from the American AR-15 rifle.

The self-loading carbine Zbroyar Z-15 is intended both for competitions in practical shooting, and for hunting. Ukrainian analogue of the AR-15 rifle. Manufactured under license.

The weapon has high accuracy (the manufacturer guarantees a stack of 2 MOA), optimized weight (3.5 kg), the ability to install sights directly on the rigid receiver (English upper receiver). The complete set of the Z-15 weapon includes a stream with Picatinny laths on which it is possible to place lanterns and other auxiliary accessories.

The Z-15 is equipped with a stainless steel barrel. This model uses a gas system “MidLength”, which provides a smoother operation of automation.

The modular design allows you to easily replace all sorts of components: butt, stream, trigger, etc., thereby adjusting the carbine as desired.

In 2011, production of Rock River Arms Inc. components was launched. In 2013, part of the production was localized in Kyiv. The trunks are still imported from the United States.









						Ukrainian replica of AR-15 assault rifle is much better than Russian AK, Kyiv says
					

The National Guard of Ukraine has begun re-equipping some units in accordance with NATO standards, learned BulgarianMilitary.com citing the structure's press service statement.




					bulgarianmilitary.com


----------



## Remius

daftandbarmy said:


> I assume they're doing this to ensure donations from the NRA
> 
> 
> Ukrainian replica of AR-15 assault rifle is much better than Russian AK, Kyiv says​
> _KYIV, (BM) _– The National Guard of Ukraine has begun re-equipping some units in accordance with NATO standards, learned BulgarianMilitary.com citing the structure’s press service statement.
> 
> It is noted that the first batch of Ukrainian-made UAR-15 assault rifles were received by the security forces in Kharkov and tested the weapon at the shooting ranges. The UAR-15 rifle is manufactured by the Ukrainian enterprise Zbroyar from American and domestic components.
> 
> Separately, the report notes that the UAR-15 is more ergonomic and more convenient than the Kalashnikov assault rifle.
> 
> _“Also the UAR-15 rifle has better accuracy than the Kalashnikov assault rifle. The barrel and the trigger mechanism, on which the latter characteristic directly depends, are manufactured in the USA,”_ the press service quotes one of the soldiers.
> 
> Recall that on July 20, after state tests and controlled operation, the Dozor-B tactical combat wheeled vehicle entered service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The machine was developed by the specialists of the Kharkov Design Bureau for Mechanical Engineering named after Morozov, it was manufactured in Lvov.
> 
> *More about UAR-15*
> 
> Zbroyar Z-15 is a Ukrainian semi-automatic self-loading rifle with a rotary shutter and automatics based on the removal of gases produced by Zbroyar LLC. Manufactured under license from the American AR-15 rifle.
> 
> The self-loading carbine Zbroyar Z-15 is intended both for competitions in practical shooting, and for hunting. Ukrainian analogue of the AR-15 rifle. Manufactured under license.
> 
> The weapon has high accuracy (the manufacturer guarantees a stack of 2 MOA), optimized weight (3.5 kg), the ability to install sights directly on the rigid receiver (English upper receiver). The complete set of the Z-15 weapon includes a stream with Picatinny laths on which it is possible to place lanterns and other auxiliary accessories.
> 
> The Z-15 is equipped with a stainless steel barrel. This model uses a gas system “MidLength”, which provides a smoother operation of automation.
> 
> The modular design allows you to easily replace all sorts of components: butt, stream, trigger, etc., thereby adjusting the carbine as desired.
> 
> In 2011, production of Rock River Arms Inc. components was launched. In 2013, part of the production was localized in Kyiv. The trunks are still imported from the United States.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian replica of AR-15 assault rifle is much better than Russian AK, Kyiv says
> 
> 
> The National Guard of Ukraine has begun re-equipping some units in accordance with NATO standards, learned BulgarianMilitary.com citing the structure's press service statement.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> bulgarianmilitary.com


Or Canada ‘s buy back program


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523435353180229633


----------



## Kilted

Wasn't the war supposed to be over by today?


----------



## MilEME09

Kilted said:


> Wasn't the war supposed to be over by today?


----------



## Skysix

The Bread Guy said:


> Interesting take from UKR state media ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada to provide NLAW and other anti-tank weapons to Ukraine – Trudeau
> 
> 
> Canada will provide NLAW and other anti-tank weapons to Ukraine, as well as fund demining efforts within the areas liberated from Russian invaders. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Really?  Here's what the PM's info-machine says ....


Why advertise military aid?? Russia doesn't need to know exactly what is coming.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523422743449939970


----------



## TacticalTea

Skysix said:


> Why advertise military aid?? Russia doesn't need to know exactly what is coming.


Not exactly strategically significant information there... I agree with the sentiment, but it's not like we're providing anti-ship missiles, heavy artillery, or long range air defence.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510251457492271110


----------



## NavyShooter




----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523528440644730880


----------



## Skysix

NavyShooter said:


> View attachment 70629


​The 9th annual Tank Biathlon has been announced for August 23 to September 4 2022 at the Alabino proving grounds near Moscow.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1510251457492271110


French media in Quebec have interviewed him back home as of Friday








						Retour du tireur d'élite Wali | « La guerre, c’est une déception terrible »
					

Deux mois après avoir répondu à l’appel du président Volodymyr Zelensky, le tireur d’élite Wali est de retour au Québec – indemne, bien qu’il ait failli y laisser sa peau « plusieurs fois ». Mais la plupart des combattants étrangers qui se sont rendus en Ukraine comme lui en sont revenus...




					www.lapresse.ca


----------



## The Bread Guy

Remius said:


> One side of the narrative wants to criticize him for going and he goes and they still will criticize ...


From the "haters gonna hate" files, in fact ....








						Mine-sniffing dog Patron barks at Trudeau as Zelensky awards him medal
					

A Ukrainian bomb-sniffing dog and his owner were awarded a service medal by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday during a ceremony in Kyiv alongside Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.




					www.washingtonexaminer.com
				



Meanwhile, UKR state media is reporting UKR's navy 2 i/c has been killed when a chopper he was in was hit by a RUS missile








						Deputy commander of Ukrainian Navy killed in battle
					

While performing a combat mission as part of the crew of a Mi-14 helicopter, Deputy Commander of the Ukrainian Navy, Colonel Ihor Bedzai, was killed by a missile from a Russian fighter jet. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## The Bread Guy

From the "no plans" narrative stream, this from January 27th ....








						'Russia has no plans to invade Ukraine or any other country'
					

Claims that Moscow is about to invade Ukraine are a "bluff", Vladimir Chizhov, Russia's ambassador to the EU, told Euronews. #Globalconversation




					www.euronews.com
				



... and this from today's TASS


----------



## KevinB

Training, Weapons, Intel: The US Military's Slow Slide Toward Confrontation with Russia over Ukraine
					

In early March, defense officials avoided even confirming the first Stinger missiles were being sent to Ukraine amid concerns of escalating the conflict as Russian troops marched toward Kyiv, and defense analysts counted the days until Russian President Vladimir Putin would likely control the...




					www.military.com


----------



## KevinB

Jill Biden urges President Biden to continue supporting Ukraine.
Before ending her four-day trip to Eastern Europe, Jill Biden, the first lady, said she had called President Biden and told him that America needed to continue supporting Ukraine.

“I said just how much I saw the need to support the people of Ukraine,” she said in remarks Monday at the presidential palace in Slovakia.

Dr. Biden added that she told her husband about “the horrors and the brutality that the people I had met had experienced.”
On Sunday, Dr. Biden made a secretive trip to western Ukraine, crossing the border to visit Ukraine’s first lady, Olena Zelenska, at a school converted to assist people who had fled fighting from other parts of the country.
It was a rare visit to a war zone by a sitting first lady — the last to travel to one alone was Laura Bush, who visited Afghanistan in 2008 — and was the latest show of U.S. support for Ukraine. The Biden administration has led Western allies in pledging billions of dollars in military and economic assistance to help Ukraine counter Russia’s invasion.
Dr. Biden is scheduled to return to Washington later Monday.


----------



## KevinB

In his own speech, Zelensky rebuts Putin’s flawed reading of history.
					






					www.nytimes.com
				




Just before President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia presided over Victory Day in Moscow with a parade of powerful weapons, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine released a video on Monday in which he walked alone through the streets of Kyiv.

“On the day of victory over Nazism, we are fighting for a new victory,” Zelensky said as he walked past government buildings protected with barriers and barbed wire. “The road to it is difficult, but we have no doubt that we will win.”

The slickly produced video was an attempt to turn Mr. Putin’s justification for his invasion of Ukraine against the Russian leader.
The Kremlin has offered multiple rationales for its invasion, but Mr. Putin has repeatedly returned to the false argument that the Ukrainian government is run by Nazis who were oppressing and even committing a “genocide” against Russian-speakers across Ukraine. In his speech at the start of the parade on Monday, he again cast his invasion as a fight against Nazism.
It is a lie that military analysts say has played a role in undermining the Russian invasion — with Russian soldiers surprised that they were not greeted as liberators.
Ukraine’s defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, said this weekend that by destroying mostly Russian-speaking cities in eastern Ukraine, Russian soldiers “essentially took revenge and retaliated further against Russian-speaking Ukrainians who did not meet them with flowers, as they had dreamed they would.”
In his video, Mr. Zelensky turned Mr. Putin’s argument on its head, accusing him of carrying on the legacy of Adolf Hitler and the forces of fascism.
Ukraine’s 20th century history is complicated and stained with blood. Much of what is present-day Ukraine became a republic of the Soviet Union after World War I and suffered through a famine in the 1930s under Joseph Stalin’s leadership.  When Germany invaded the Soviet Union in 1941, many Ukrainians, especially in western Ukraine, saw the Germans as liberators, according to historians.
Ukraine’s insurgent forces led by Stepan Bandera fought alongside the Nazis against Soviet forces for a period of the war, and some Russians still cite that as evidence of where Ukrainian sympathies lie today. But for many Ukrainians, it is a more complicated story and, however its wartime history is read, offers no justification for Russia’s aggression today. 
Mr. Putin has gone even further in his misreading of history, saying that Ukraine itself is an invention of the Bolshevik revolutionary leader, Vladimir Lenin, who he said had mistakenly endowed Ukraine with a sense of statehood by allowing it autonomy within the newly created Soviet state.
“Modern Ukraine was entirely and fully created by Russia, more specifically the Bolshevik, communist Russia,” Mr. Putin said just days before launching his invasion.
Mr. Zelensky has repeatedly used the Russian leader’s own words to demonstrate what he says are the Kremlin’s true intentions: the destruction of the Ukrainian state. 
In the new video, he said only “a madman” would follow the path of fascists who started a war that claimed at least 50 million lives.
Mr Putin, he said, is “the one who is repeating the horrific crimes of Hitler’s regime today.”
“He is doomed,” Mr. Zelensky said. “Because he was cursed by millions of ancestors when he began to imitate their killer. And therefore he will lose everything.”


----------



## Underway

JLB50 said:


> I’m a bit surprised that Trudeau, Freeland and Joly went at the same time. Does Canada have a ”designated survivor” policy similar to that of the U.S. in case the head/heads of government are killed or disabled?


Because we are a parliamentary democracy we don't need one per se.  As long as parliament exists the executive branch also exists.

The people choose parliament, and the parliament chooses the government (and thus the PM).   However, as others pointed out SOP is all about one VIP with the PM at a time.  Even if Freeland and JT went down in an accident on the same plane, in an emergency parliament would quickly find a replacement to step up in the short term.


Despite the rather kinetic leanings of the audience here (I'm one as well), I'd like to highlight these things that are extremely important.



> "Post-war reconstruction requires clear, bold, ambitious decisions comparable to the historic Marshall Plan. We agreed to work together to make this a reality," he said.


This was at the very top of my list of things that Canada could do to help Ukraine.  Knowing that the country will be rebuilt despite the destruction is a strong motivator for the national will.  If we don't have the capacity to supply weapons we sure as hell are excellent at this sort of stuff.


> At the end of the meeting, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in the presence of Justin Trudeau, presented state awards to Ukrainian rescuers who took part in the demining, using, in particular, Canadian equipment. Among the awarded was the dog Patron who was taught pyrotechnic work by his owner, Major of the Civil Protection Service Mykhailo Iliev. There are already 236 explosive devices found by Patron. In addition, the dog, along with pyrotechnics, is actively involved in mine security education. Children love him especially, and thanks to Patron they perceive information better.


This was also on my list.  Aside from making me feel good (who doesn't love cute working dogs finding UXO's to protect kids!) this is another area where Canadian expertise and resources should be applied.  The treaty for banning AP landmines is called the Ottawa Treaty for god's sake!  


> Trudeau also announced his intention to temporarily remove trade tariffs on Ukrainian imports for a period of one year


This wasn't on my list but it runs along the same lines that the US announced at Bretton Woods.  Open the markets and allow the country to sell into our market, thus "subsidizing" their economic reinvigoration.  Its a simple thing, but can have a large impact over time allowing Ukraine to rebuild some industries and get foreign investment.

I've been fairly irritated by our slow response times, however, a spade is a spade, and if we don't have the capacity for providing the kinetic effects then we can and should lean on the non-kinetic.


----------



## Quirky

The Bread Guy said:


> From the "no plans" narrative stream, this from January 27th ....


This was most likely true. Judging by the Russian Army performance early on, they had no idea what they were doing. There was technically, no plans.


----------



## TacticalTea

Underway said:


> Because we are a parliamentary democracy we don't need one per se.  As long as parliament exists the executive branch also exists.
> 
> The people choose parliament, and the parliament chooses the government (and thus the PM).   However, as others pointed out SOP is all about one VIP with the PM at a time.  Even if Freeland and JT went down in an accident on the same plane, in an emergency parliament would quickly find a replacement to step up in the short term.
> 
> 
> Despite the rather kinetic leanings of the audience here (I'm one as well), I'd like to highlight these things that are extremely important.
> 
> 
> This was at the very top of my list of things that Canada could do to help Ukraine.  Knowing that the country will be rebuilt despite the destruction is a strong motivator for the national will.  If we don't have the capacity to supply weapons we sure as hell are excellent at this sort of stuff.
> 
> This was also on my list.  Aside from making me feel good (who doesn't love cute working dogs finding UXO's to protect kids!) this is another area where Canadian expertise and resources should be applied.  The treaty for banning AP landmines is called the Ottawa Treaty for god's sake!
> 
> This wasn't on my list but it runs along the same lines that the US announced at Bretton Woods.  Open the markets and allow the country to sell into our market, thus "subsidizing" their economic reinvigoration.  Its a simple thing, but can have a large impact over time allowing Ukraine to rebuild some industries and get foreign investment.
> 
> I've been fairly irritated by our slow response times, however, a spade is a spade, and if we don't have the capacity for providing the kinetic effects then we can and should lean on the non-kinetic.


I agree, absolutely critical and very Canadian steps to take.

That said, those efforts cannot serve as a distraction from criticizing the government for its failure to provide greater military support to Ukraine. It doesn't matter, if it is true, that we "don't have the capacity to provide" more. They've been in government essentially since the start of Russia's invasion (2015 vs 2014), this escalation has been a predictable possibility ever since then and warranted greater preparation. 7 years. They can't blame the conservatives for their own dereliction of duty.

And I say "if it is true" because where there's a will there's a way. There's no reason we can't give Ukraine more of our equipment while ordering replacements to be manufactured. There's just a lack of will.


----------



## Underway

TacticalTea said:


> I agree, absolutely critical and very Canadian steps to take.
> 
> *That said, those efforts cannot serve as a distraction from criticizing the governmen*t for its failure to provide greater military support to Ukraine. It doesn't matter, if it is true, that we "don't have the capacity to provide" more. They've been in government essentially since the start of Russia's invasion (2015 vs 2014), this escalation has been a predictable possibility ever since then and warranted greater preparation. 7 years. They can't blame the conservatives for their own dereliction of duty.
> 
> And I say "if it is true" because where there's a will there's a way. There's no reason we can't give Ukraine more of our equipment while ordering replacements to be manufactured. There's just a lack of will.



I've highlighted the pertinent part.  It's not a distraction.  Don't connect the issues.  Take each issue on its own.  Mine clearance good.  Marshal Plan good. Financial aid very good (always let the person/country in need decide how to spend the money, they know best).

Frankly, you and I both know that we _*have little to no capacity*_ to provide more direct military aid to Ukraine without negatively impacting our own *capabilities*. I would not in any way impinge on our capabilities if I was the government.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Underway said:


> I've been fairly irritated by our slow response times, however, a spade is a spade, and *if we don't have the capacity for providing the kinetic effects then we can and should lean on the non-kinetic.*


That right there.  "Help" is more than just "military" help. 

And so far, UKR media seems to be running a fair bit on various types of Canadian help being offered, so even though it's not all bombs & bullets, it appears to be appreciated.

_*“Canada to help Ukraine demine occupied territories – Zelensky” (UKR state media)*_
_*“Canadian Embassy resumes its work in Kyiv – Trudeau” (UKR media)*_
_*“Canada’s Trudeau says Putin ‘can only lose’ in Ukraine” (The Hill via yahoo.com)*_
_*“Canada blacklists 40 Russian individuals – PM’s press service” (RUS state media)*_
_*“Ukraine, Canada to return to expansion of FTA Agreement, complete work on it in coming weeks – Economy Ministry” (UKR media)*_
_*“Canada announces removal of all tariffs on Ukrainian goods for one year” (UKR media)*_
_*“Ukraine and Canada will complete the work on expanding the Free Trade Agreement in the coming weeks – Ministry of Economy” (safe PDF, UKR Cabinet info-machine)*_
_*“Canada to help Ukraine find options to export grain to ease supply worries, Trudeau says” (Reuters)*_
And to counter those who only see this ....








						Mine-sniffing dog Patron barks at Trudeau as Zelensky awards him medal
					

A Ukrainian bomb-sniffing dog and his owner were awarded a service medal by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday during a ceremony in Kyiv alongside Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.




					www.washingtonexaminer.com
				



.... the UKR defence minister mentioning Poland & Canada back to back in comments at the all-donor's meeting in late April ...


> ... In addition, I met with my colleagues from Canada and Poland - Minister Anita Anand and Minister Mariusz Blaszczak. Ukraine has special relations with these countries, they are our strategic partners. In addition to military support, Poland has sheltered millions of our people, and Canada has always been our friend, and now it is constantly proving it ...


... suggests to me that _overall_ we're in at least reasonably good company, and that our good will dial isn't _completely_ at zero.


TacticalTea said:


> ... those efforts cannot serve as a distraction from criticizing the government for its failure to provide greater military support to Ukraine. It doesn't matter, if it is true, that we "don't have the capacity to provide" more ....


All true about the kinetic bit, BUT ...


TacticalTea said:


> ... *They've been in government essentially since the start of Russia's invasion* (2015 vs 2014) ...


... let's not cherry-pick dates, either - Crimea was annexed February 2014 on Team Blue's watch, and Team Red got their shot starting November 2015.   Lotta months in between for more to have been done, too, if this was predictable then.  Fair's fair ....


----------



## Underway

The Bread Guy said:


> That right there.  "Help" is more than just "military" help.
> 
> And so far, UKR media seems to be running a fair bit on various types of Canadian help being offered, so even though it's not all bombs & bullets, it appears to be appreciated.
> 
> _*“Canada to help Ukraine demine occupied territories – Zelensky” (UKR state media)*_
> _*“Canadian Embassy resumes its work in Kyiv – Trudeau” (UKR media)*_
> _*“Canada’s Trudeau says Putin ‘can only lose’ in Ukraine” (The Hill via yahoo.com)*_
> _*“Canada blacklists 40 Russian individuals – PM’s press service” (RUS state media)*_
> _*“Ukraine, Canada to return to expansion of FTA Agreement, complete work on it in coming weeks – Economy Ministry” (UKR media)*_
> _*“Canada announces removal of all tariffs on Ukrainian goods for one year” (UKR media)*_
> _*“Ukraine and Canada will complete the work on expanding the Free Trade Agreement in the coming weeks – Ministry of Economy” (safe PDF, UKR Cabinet info-machine)*_
> _*“Canada to help Ukraine find options to export grain to ease supply worries, Trudeau says” (Reuters)*_
> And to counter those who only see this ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Mine-sniffing dog Patron barks at Trudeau as Zelensky awards him medal
> 
> 
> A Ukrainian bomb-sniffing dog and his owner were awarded a service medal by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday during a ceremony in Kyiv alongside Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.washingtonexaminer.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> .... the UKR defence minister mentioning Poland & Canada back to back in comments at the all-donor's meeting in late April ...
> 
> ... suggests to me that _overall_ we're in at least reasonably good company, and that our good will dial isn't _completely_ at zero.


Frankly, I don't give a **** about what company we keep and whether we have high goodwill.  Despite what some here may think its not a competition within NATO to score points.  It is supposed to be a coordinated effort to cover all of Ukraine's needs.  And many of those needs don't come flying out of a howitzer.

However, I get the frustration at a gap between what we think we can afford to give and what we actually are giving.  That's completely fair.  It's the same way I feel about how First Nations are treated in Canada.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Underway said:


> I've been fairly irritated by our slow response times, however, a spade is a spade, and if we don't have the capacity for providing the kinetic effects then we can and should lean on the non-kinetic.



We're probably doing the best we can, which always falls short in times like these. And, to be blunt, Europe needs to look after it's own backyard, first.

Watching the prevaricating, pearl clutching, mass avoidance and national virtue signalling going on by hundreds of millions of wealthy and privileged Europeans living a short drive from Ukraine and Russia over the past years has been torturous, and reminiscent of the waffling going on around the time of Munich 1938.

Oh, and they tied themselves, almost inextricably, to energy supplies from a country controlled by a rising dictator over the period of the past couple of decades, because it's cheaper. There seem to be few strategic bones in that old European body.

Like many North Americans, I have a father and two grandfathers who went over to help deal with tyrants in the 'European Civil Wars' of the 20th C. I'd be sad to see my son have to go do that too as a result of continued European negligence.


----------



## QV

daftandbarmy said:


> Oh, and they tied themselves, almost inextricably, to energy supplies from a country controlled by a rising dictator over the period of the past couple of decades, because it's cheaper.


I seem to recall when 45 raised this issue, it/he were mocked endlessly. And Canada continues to suppress the development and export of western Canadian O&G today.


----------



## Underway

daftandbarmy said:


> Oh, and they tied themselves, almost inextricably, to energy supplies from a country controlled by a rising dictator over the period of the past couple of decades, because it's cheaper. There seem to be few strategic bones in that old European body.


So they should have further tied themselves to the Saints that are selling them oil from the Mideast instead?  There are only so many places to get natural gas from.  North America only became oil self-sufficient 8 years ago with spare capacity for export due to fracking in the US.  It made little sense for Europe to look elsewhere.

Even after Crimea (and during this current war for a while), Ukraine got its natural gas from Russia.  If they aren't cutting the cord why would Europe?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Soldier35 said:


> ... While performing a* combat mission *in Ukraine ...


But, but, but, according to the dictionary, "combat" means, "a fight, *especially** during a war*". And your bosses seem to be pretty clear that this isn't a war, so whazzup with that?

Maybe you should be careful near open windows above the first floor, or about who's handled your tea or soup before you? 

Meanwhile, these guys rarely disappoint, either ...








						Ukrainian farmer makes off with entire Russian Victory Day Parade
					

Chin up, at least the tanks are moving.




					www.duffelblog.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> .
> 
> All true about the kinetic bit, BUT ...
> 
> ... let's not cherry-pick dates, either - Crimea was annexed February 2014 on Team Blue's watch, and Team Red got their shot starting November 2015.   Lotta months in between for more to have been done, too, if this was predictable then.  Fair's fair ....


Team Blue got Vladdy kicked from the G7, no small feat and set up Unifier in April of 2015. 

Besides being _'told'_ by NATO/US in 2017 to step up and take on a roll in Latvia, what did Team Red do for the 6.5yrs from Nov 2015 to Jan of 2022?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> Team Blue got Vladdy kicked from the G7, no small feat and set up Unifier in April of 2015.


Fair points.


----------



## Kirkhill

Underway said:


> So they should have further tied themselves to the Saints that are selling them oil from the Mideast instead?  There are only so many places to get natural gas from.  North America only became oil self-sufficient 8 years ago with spare capacity for export due to fracking in the US.  It made little sense for Europe to look elsewhere.
> 
> Even after Crimea (and during this current war for a while), Ukraine got its natural gas from Russia.  If they aren't cutting the cord why would Europe?



They had, and have, home grown solutions.  Including coal, natural gas, fracking, nuclear, off shore wind and even hydro.  They have simply chosen not to exploit the resources they have.  In the case of France and Germany they decided to use nuclear energy instead of coal because they couldn't decide which of them owned Belgium's mines.


----------



## daftandbarmy

The lifecycle of the Russian tank explained by a Sir David Attenborough impersonator ....



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523664324950036480


----------



## TacticalTea

Underway said:


> I've highlighted the pertinent part.  It's not a distraction.  Don't connect the issues.  Take each issue on its own.  Mine clearance good.  Marshal Plan good. Financial aid very good (always let the person/country in need decide how to spend the money, they know best).
> 
> Frankly, you and I both know that we _*have little to no capacity*_ to provide more direct military aid to Ukraine without negatively impacting our own *capabilities*. I would not in any way impinge on our capabilities if I was the government.


1st paragraph: Certainly. In a similar fashion, my reaction to Trudeau's surprise visit to Ukraine was nothing more or less than just "Good." Which, funny enough someone wrote just that on here and I "liked" it.

2nd paragraph: Your opinion on that certainly aligns with current government strategy. Our disagreement here would be a philosophical one. In my view, contributing to Europe's security is the whole point of our Army.


----------



## YZT580

TacticalTea said:


> 1st paragraph: Certainly. In a similar fashion, my reaction to Trudeau's surprise visit to Ukraine was nothing more or less than just "Good." Which, funny enough someone wrote just that on here and I "liked" it.
> 
> 2nd paragraph: Your opinion on that certainly aligns with current government strategy. Our disagreement here would be a philosophical one. In my view, contributing to Europe's security is the whole point of our Army.


Trudeau visiting Ukraine today is good but it does not demonstrate either leadership or compassion.  Trudeau visiting Ukraine 2 weeks ago would have done both.  I applaud him for going but by appearance, and  I am going by optics only, he is there out of obligation and vote chasing and not out of compassion.  It is true that we have very little in the way of hardware to offer.  I doubt very much if Ukraine would want our F18s.  We could prod London into stepping up production and send over a few APCs but they aren't really needed yet.  But the lack of hardware only reflects badly upon the government(s) that have allowed the armed forces to dwindle into irrelevance.  I can't help picturing where we would be at this juncture if NATO had been called out at the time Russia invaded.  What would we have left by now or could we even have gotten it to Europe in time for it to have been of any use?  Just thinking.  SAD


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> A damaged Russian Su-25 landed in Ukraine on one engine. While performing a combat mission in Ukraine, a Su-25 aircraft, the second in the pair, was hit by a missile fired from the ground by Ukrainian servicemen. The pilot of the damaged aircraft decided to turn off the damaged engine and not leave the aircraft. At this time, the leader of the pair, Lieutenant Colonel Denis Litvinov, seeing the launch of another rocket, released heat traps and covered his friend’s damaged plane from missiles with his plane.


Looks like the Su-25 caught a case of “T-72-itis” 🤣


----------



## MilEME09

More from the front, no word if the bridge are Rubizhne was taken intact but still huge.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523697824344420353


----------



## The Bread Guy

daftandbarmy said:


> The lifecycle of the Russian tank explained by a Sir David Attenborough impersonator ....
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523664324950036480


... and Canadians of a certain age can  hear the theme music from "Hinterland's Who's Who" watching this ....


----------



## Kirkhill

Two comments from Ben Wallace via Paul Mason via Phillips O'Brien.

The first pertains to this thread.  Putin looking for an off-ramp?  More "Probably" than "Maybe". 

The second actually pertains more to Force 2025.  Fewer bodies.  Fewer tanks.  More UAVs.  (And for the record I consider an artillery shell an "Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle".

I will double post this in Force 2025.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523637435241951235


----------



## Kirkhill

Luhansk holding 

17:47 Kyiv 9 May 2022

In the city of Popasna, Luhansk Region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are keeping the defense at the new fortified positions.

“Popasna. No breakthrough there. Our defenders are keeping the defense at the new fortified positions. Hopefully, the situation will change soon. Reinforcements have arrived, and we will be gradually clearing settlements nearby,” Haidai noted.

A reminder that Luhansk Regional Military Administration Head Serhii Haidai stated earlier that the Ukrainian military had withdrawn from Popasna, as it had been completely destroyed by the enemy. 









						Ukraine Army keeps defense in Popasna, reinforcements arrive
					

In the city of Popasna, Luhansk Region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are keeping the defense at the new fortified positions. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				




Translation 



> 📌‼ ️After clearing Belogorovka - evacuation will resume‼ ️
> 
> 📌Our troops are clearing the territory of Belogorovka, where the occupiers crossed the pontoon crossing by river.
> As soon as all the "extras" are removed - rescuers will be able to start dismantling the debris in the school and the neighboring village of Shipilove, where 11 residents are trapped in the basement of a private house, we hope they will wait.
> 
> 📌In Popasna Our defenders keep the defense in new fortified positions, there are no breakthroughs. Soon the situation must change in our direction.
> 
> 📌In Rubezhnoye, orcs are suffering losses every day, only yesterday minus five tanks, about two dozen 200, many wounded. The line of defense is unchanged.
> 
> 📌The voivode near Severodonetsk is completely ours, the Armed Forces have consolidated their positions
> 
> More than 40,000 people still live in the free Luhansk region. The evacuation will resume after the clearing of Belogorovka.


----------



## Kirkhill

09.05.2022 19:50



> The Ukrainian Armed Forces have been holding the line of defense in Rubizhne and Voievodivka, Luhansk region, and remain in control of Sievierodonetsk, a city where the Russian invaders “never set foot.”











						Ukrainian Army holding ground in Rubizhne, Voievodivka, retain full control of Sievierodonetsk
					

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have been holding the line of defense in Rubizhne and Voievodivka, Luhansk region, and remain in control of Sievierodonetsk, a city where the Russian invaders “never set foot.” — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Czech_pivo

YZT580 said:


> Trudeau visiting Ukraine today is good but it does not demonstrate either leadership or compassion.  Trudeau visiting Ukraine 2 weeks ago would have done both.  I applaud him for going but by appearance, and  I am going by optics only, he is there out of obligation and vote chasing and not out of compassion.  It is true that we have very little in the way of hardware to offer.  I doubt very much if Ukraine would want our F18s.  We could prod London into stepping up production and send over a few APCs but they aren't really needed yet.  But the lack of hardware only reflects badly upon the government(s) that have allowed the armed forces to dwindle into irrelevance.  I can't help picturing where we would be at this juncture if NATO had been called out at the time Russia invaded.  What would we have left by now or could we even have gotten it to Europe in time for it to have been of any use?  Just thinking.  SAD


Just in time for the Victory Parade in Moscow so our event-planning skills would 'shine bright like a diamond.'


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> More from the front, no word if the bridge are Rubizhne was taken intact but still huge.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523697824344420353



From the same source - Why are the Ukrainians spending so much time in the Kharkiv area?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523740677632565249


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523697824344420353


----------



## KevinB

Happy Un Victory Day Vlad...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523747028421197824









						Biden signs bill to allow lending arms to Ukraine, which will speed up shipments.
					

The law will waive time-consuming requirements on the provision of arms to Ukraine considered critical to its defense against Russian forces.




					www.nytimes.com
				




Biden signs bill to allow lending arms to Ukraine, which will speed up shipments.

WASHINGTON — President Biden on Monday signed an updated version of the Lend-Lease Act that supplied Britain and eventually other allies during World War II, summoning the spirit of the last century’s epic battle for democracy as he paved the way for further arms shipments to Ukrainians fighting to repel Russian invaders.

“Every day, Ukrainians fight for their lives,” Mr. Biden said as he approved the legislation in the Oval Office. “The cost of the fight is not cheap but caving to aggression is even more costly.”

The original Lend-Lease Act was enacted in March 1941 when the United States was still officially neutral during World War II, as a way for President Franklin D. Roosevelt to send weaponry and other supplies to Britain as it faced Nazi Germany essentially on its own. Among the other allies it later helped was the Soviet Union.
Now, Moscow will be on the other side of the arms channel as the modern-day version, called the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act, will direct weapons and equipment not to Russian soldiers but to those fighting them. The law will waive time-consuming requirements on the provision of arms to Ukraine, speeding up shipments considered critical to its defense against Russian forces.
The legislation passed unanimously in the Senate and with just 10 Republicans voting no in the House. Mr. Biden was joined for the low-key ceremony by Vice President Kamala Harris, Senator Ben Cardin, Democrat from Maryland, and Representatives Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat from Michigan, and Victoria Spartz, a Republican from Indiana who was born in Ukraine.
Mr. Biden signed the law on the same day that Russia celebrated Victory Day, the 77th anniversary of the allied defeat of Nazi Germany, a victory facilitated in part by the original Lend-Lease Act.
“This day’s supposed to be about celebrating peace and unity in Europe and the defeat of Nazis in World War II,” Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, said at a briefing afterward. “And instead, Putin is perverting history, changing history, or trying to change it, I should say, to try to justify his unprovoked war.”


----------



## Remius

YZT580 said:


> Trudeau visiting Ukraine today is good but it does not demonstrate either leadership or compassion.  Trudeau visiting Ukraine 2 weeks ago would have done both.  I applaud him for going but by appearance, and  I am going by optics only, he is there out of obligation and vote chasing and not out of compassion.  It is true that we have very little in the way of hardware to offer.  I doubt very much if Ukraine would want our F18s.  We could prod London into stepping up production and send over a few APCs but they aren't really needed yet.  But the lack of hardware only reflects badly upon the government(s) that have allowed the armed forces to dwindle into irrelevance.  I can't help picturing where we would be at this juncture if NATO had been called out at the time Russia invaded.  What would we have left by now or could we even have gotten it to Europe in time for it to have been of any use?  Just thinking.  SAD


I think the timing was spot on.  Right on and around victory day.  Same with Jill Biden. 

Plus i believe we are one of the first countries to reopen our embassy.  With the PM himself there to do so. 

What vote chasing?  There is no election for at least two years.  And I doubt he’s running anyways.


----------



## KevinB

deleted


----------



## Posthumane

Interesting brief from the Austrian military comparing the current tactics in eastern Ukraine to the battle of Kursk.


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> From the same source - Why are the Ukrainians spending so much time in the Kharkiv area?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523740677632565249
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523697824344420353


2nd largest city in Ukraine,  Russia has a lot of logistics rolling through Belgorod, control of the west wide of the river will allow strikes on the supply lines to Izyum.

Russia also has moved 19 BTGs into Belgorod in order to force Ukraine to keep forces there, but those 19 BTGs will soon be in arty range, if not already. To say the least it was a weak point in the front, and they exploited it, very well it seems.


----------



## YZT580

Remius said:


> I think the timing was spot on.  Right on and around victory day.  Same with Jill Biden.
> 
> Plus i believe we are one of the first countries to reopen our embassy.  With the PM himself there to do so.
> 
> What vote chasing?  There is no election for at least two years.  And I doubt he’s running anyways.


you quibble over the timing but no mention of the two main themes: no compassion and no leadership.  It is all for show.  Politicians are always acting for the voters, it is only rarely that their actions can be directly attributed to feelings or ethics without someone (including myself) finding grounds to question their motives.  Trudeau was the umpteenth politician to visit Kyiv and appearances suggest that it was only in response to the bad press that was being handed out because no one had gone there from here.  Actually raising the flag on the embassy was about the only way they could play catch-up since a myriad of other nations had already announced their imminent return to Ukraine and many national leaders had already visited.  I give him credit, he did go just maybe going 2 weeks ago or a month ago as Johnson did would have been a better indication of support and caring.


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> 2nd largest city in Ukraine,  Russia has a lot of logistics rolling through Belgorod, control of the west wide of the river will allow strikes on the supply lines to Izyum.
> 
> Russia also has moved 19 BTGs into Belgorod in order to force Ukraine to keep forces there, but those 19 BTGs will soon be in arty range, if not already. To say the least it was a weak point in the front, and they exploited it, very well it seems.


Russia having to dedicate more forces to potentially defend Belgorod is an interesting evolution of that front. As you say, Russian logistics IVO Belgorod may well be vulnerable to shoot ’n’ scoot indirect fire before long. Damned if I know if Ukraine would attempt that, but even the possibility must be concerning.


----------



## MilEME09

brihard said:


> Russia having to dedicate more forces to potentially defend Belgorod is an interesting evolution of that front. As you say, Russian logistics IVO Belgorod may well be vulnerable to shoot ’n’ scoot indirect fire before long. Damned if I know if Ukraine would attempt that, but even the possibility must be concerning.


I don't see Ukraine except for maybe SOF crossing the border, but airstrikes or arty on the Russians would be likely. Belgorod is probably an area where they have workshops, depots, etc to refit forces and push supplies up, pretty juicy target, especially if Ukraine can take out Russian AD assets.


----------



## Skysix

So, not just a model in camo.









						Красуня-парамедик Кіра Нечай з вірусного знімку: "Ця війна - не спринт, а марафон" (фото)
					

В інтерв’ю "Телеграфу" Кіра Нечай зізналася, що зовсім не очікувала такої популярності після того самого фото




					telegraf.com.ua
				




The Hospitalists are a volunteer medical utnit formed  after the 2104 invasion. HQ currently is in the UK. A medical volunteer battalion, its task is to help the wounded on the battlefield, stabilize them directly near the combat zone and evacuate them to medical facilities. 









						War in Ukraine | Hospitallers Medical Battalion
					

We collect and deliver donations to help Hospitallers, Medical Battalion, a Ukrainian voluntary organization of paramedics, who provide medical help and evacuate civilian and military people from the battlezones in Ukraine.




					www.hospitallers.co.uk
				





Part of the *Order of Knights of the Hospital of Saint John of Jerusalem, *a religious order based in Jerusalem at the time of the Crusades. Seems to be a cousin of St. John Ambulance


----------



## Remius

YZT580 said:


> you quibble over the timing but no mention of the two main themes: no compassion and no leadership.  It is all for show.  Politicians are always acting for the voters, it is only rarely that their actions can be directly attributed to feelings or ethics without someone (including myself) finding grounds to question their motives.  Trudeau was the umpteenth politician to visit Kyiv and appearances suggest that it was only in response to the bad press that was being handed out because no one had gone there from here.  Actually raising the flag on the embassy was about the only way they could play catch-up since a myriad of other nations had already announced their imminent return to Ukraine and many national leaders had already visited.  I give him credit, he did go just maybe going 2 weeks ago or a month ago as Johnson did would have been a better indication of support and caring.


No you are quibbling about timing.  You brought up that he’s “2 weeks too late”.

So look at this way.  Should all these leaders all show up at the same time on the same day?  Or spread it out so that there is a story about leaders visiting every week?  Keep it in the news cycle.   And limit your security resources to a few vips at a time?  Zelensky is still waging a war.  Easier to handle a few world leaders at a time rather than some sort of summit. 

ALL of this is for show.  ALL of it.  Including Johnson when he went.  Every single politician. To me it looks like a concerted effort by NATO leaders to keep the PR war going strong and continuously. 

I get it.  Trudeau is Trudeau.  Haters gonna hate.


----------



## MilEME09

Interesting note from today's ISW report, they say BTGs are no longer a reliable metric to determine how big Russian forces are. Likely because many are shells of their former selves. Some reports I've seen say btgs may only have ~500 personal now, and not all have tanks any more.





__





						Institute for the Study of War
					

Russian forces continue to face widespread force generation challenges. A senior US defense official stated on May 9 that the US has not observed any indicators of a “new major Russian mobilization” and that members of the private military company Wagner




					t.co


----------



## Underway

YZT580 said:


> Trudeau visiting Ukraine today is good but it does not demonstrate either leadership or compassion.  Trudeau visiting Ukraine 2 weeks ago would have done both.  I applaud him for going but by appearance, and  I am going by optics only, he is there out of obligation and vote chasing and not out of compassion.  It is true that we have very little in the way of hardware to offer.  I doubt very much if Ukraine would want our F18s.  We could prod London into stepping up production and send over a few APCs but they aren't really needed yet.  But the lack of hardware only reflects badly upon the government(s) that have allowed the armed forces to dwindle into irrelevance.  I can't help picturing where we would be at this juncture if NATO had been called out at the time Russia invaded.  What would we have left by now or could we even have gotten it to Europe in time for it to have been of any use?  Just thinking.  SAD


Again I don't care why he's there.  Judging from your previous posts I would guess that you would have posted this exact same thing two weeks ago with slightly different wording.  I don't think anything the current Gov't could have done would have made you happy.

Compassion has a place and so does cold hard calculation.  This meeting had a little of both, and I'm willing to bet the real sauce came from Christina's and Melanie's meetings when the cameras were not flashing.


----------



## Underway

Kirkhill said:


> The second actually pertains more to Force 2025. Fewer bodies. Fewer tanks. More UAVs. (And for the record I consider an artillery shell an "Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle".


The artillery shell is the weapon system given the smart munitions you can now use, the howitzer is the delivery system.  It's a bit different than a UAV as a UAV is not a weapons system it's a vehicle/delivery system itself.

So the  M777 role changes depending on its munitions its firing, which is really interesting.


----------



## Kirkhill

Underway said:


> The artillery shell is the weapon system given the smart munitions you can now use, the howitzer is the delivery system.  It's a bit different than a UAV as a UAV is not a weapons system it's a vehicle/delivery system itself.
> 
> So the  M777 role changes depending on its munitions its firing, which is really interesting.



I agree.  It is really interesting.  The howitzer merely becomes the launcher - not dissimilar to attaching a booster to a Harpoon so you can launch it from the deck of a ship rather than from an aircraft, or not dissimilar to a RATO/JATO pack attached to a target drone.  Once the vehicle is launched then it is either a glider or an aircraft - either of which are flying independently.


----------



## CBH99

MilEME09 said:


> Interesting note from today's ISW report, they say BTGs are no longer a reliable metric to determine how big Russian forces are. Likely because many are shells of their former selves. Some reports I've seen say btgs may only have ~500 personal now, and not all have tanks any more.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Institute for the Study of War
> 
> 
> Russian forces continue to face widespread force generation challenges. A senior US defense official stated on May 9 that the US has not observed any indicators of a “new major Russian mobilization” and that members of the private military company Wagner
> 
> 
> 
> 
> t.co


Oooofffff… you know morale is low when they start shooting their own vehicles so they can’t move to the front…


I actually feel sorry for the average Russian service member deployed to Ukraine to fight a war he didn’t even know about, for reasons he doesn’t understand, to accomplish who knows what, and do it in a way that is counter intuitive to human nature.  

All the while watching a steady stream of bodies & vehicles coming back the opposite way, dead & destroyed.  


Let me be clear… the various units that deliberately contributed to atrocities in places like Bucha?  F**k em.  

Honestly wouldn’t lift a finger to help them if they were on fire.  I’d work non-stop if I got to contribute to them being on fire in the first place though.  

(Sorry, don’t mean to sound crass - just being honest.  Using rape, torture, and mass murder of civilians in a country you just invaded for no reason?  I don’t mean to sound unprofessional, but I meant what I said.)


But the average Russian service member who isn’t a sadistic, homicide maniac?  That’s a crappy deck of cards to play with right now.

I watched a video of Russian soldiers pulled along the side of a road doing maintenance on their BMP.  A Ukrainian civilian was driving by, so he pulled over on the opposite side of the road and started to chat with them.  (This was maybe week 2 or 3 of the war.)

They seemed friendly enough, traded some friendly verbal jabs and all laughed.  They were shocked when be told them they were in Ukraine.  Genuinely surprised.


----------



## FJAG

Underway said:


> The artillery shell is the weapon system given the smart munitions you can now use, the howitzer is the delivery system.  It's a bit different than a UAV as a UAV is not a weapons system it's a vehicle/delivery system itself.
> 
> So the  M777 role changes depending on its munitions its firing, which is really interesting.


Much as I do not want to get involved in hair splitting, the projectile has always been the weapon of the artillery. Everything else, whether a gun or rocket launcher is a delivery system that sends the projectile where its effect is required.

That applies whether the projectile is high explosive, a smoke shell, an illumination round, or a canon launched guided projectile. Effectively loitering munitions, armed drones etc can all fit into that characterization if they are designated to be used by the artillery (and, IMHO, for many reasons I've already stated elsewhere there is a range of these weapons between the very small which are more appropriate for use by manoeuvre units and very large which are more an RCAF system, that I believe need to be employed by the artillery).

The role of the M777 does not change. Field artillery has only one role: "The role of the field artillery is to assist in the defeat of the enemy with indirect fire as part of the all arms battle"

However, the artillery has always had a number of effects-based types of fire missions which include amongst others: area neutralization (think of a whole lot of dumb rounds raining down on a company position to keep it ineffective); screening with smoke; visible or IR battlefield illumination, etc. One type of fire mission which has been around for hundreds of years is the "destruct" fire mission whose aim is to permanently destroy a target. While an old type of fire mission it has become much more practical in the last few decades because of the improvement in precision guided munitions. Whether its a cannon launched Excalibur or an armed drone or a loitering round, if launched by the artillery, it fits into the 'destruct' fire mission type. 

One thing to keep in mind with most loitering munitions is that they are generally not versatile. They are designed to deliver one effect, e.g. armour penetration, or maybe a dual anti-armour, anti-personnel effect. Even rocket launched projectiles are generally of one or two specific types. Gun launched artillery on the other hand is the most versatile as a battery could have a half dozen or more different types of rounds on hand and can easily switch back and forth between them as required. This is why there should always be a mix of artillery systems deployed.

🍻


----------



## MilEME09

CBH99 said:


> Let me be clear… the various units that deliberately contributed to atrocities in places like Bucha?  F**k em.
> 
> Honestly wouldn’t lift a finger to help them if they were on fire.  I’d work non-stop if I got to contribute to them being on fire in the first place though.



You'll be happy to learn that intelligence suggests the 64th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade was wiped out in Izyum over the past week in its entirety. This is the unit identified for the Bucha massacres.


----------



## Remius

MilEME09 said:


> You'll be happy to learn that intelligence suggests the 64th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade was wiped out in Izyum over the past week in its entirety. This is the unit identified for the Bucha massacres.


Good way to deal with it.  Send them all in to be wiped out.  No witnesses or accused left alive.  Russia can keep denying.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Underway said:


> and I'm willing to bet the real sauce came from Christina's and Melanie's meetings when the cameras were not flashing.



Give Ukraine money.
Give Ukraine weapons.
Take refugees. 

Not much else to do or discuss.


----------



## YZT580

MilEME09 said:


> I don't see Ukraine except for maybe SOF crossing the border, but airstrikes or arty on the Russians would be likely. Belgorod is probably an area where they have workshops, depots, etc to refit forces and push supplies up, pretty juicy target, especially if Ukraine can take out Russian AD assets.


Isn't there a risk that any strikes within Belgorod would force Belgorod's forces into the battle?


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> I agree.  It is really interesting.  The howitzer merely becomes the launcher - not dissimilar to attaching a booster to a Harpoon so you can launch it from the deck of a ship rather than from an aircraft, or not dissimilar to a RATO/JATO pack attached to a target drone.  Once the vehicle is launched then it is either a glider or an aircraft - either of which are flying independently.


Shame Gerald Bull is not around to see what howitzer have become, a launcher, kind of moving towards his dream of satellites being launched from them. Poor Gerald….


----------



## YZT580

brihard said:


> Russia having to dedicate more forces to potentially defend Belgorod is an interesting evolution of that front. As you say, Russian logistics IVO Belgorod may well be vulnerable to shoot ’n’ scoot indirect fire before long. Damned if I know if Ukraine would attempt that, but even the possibility must be concerning.


pardon my error in my previous post.  I confused Belgorod with Belarus so disregard the entire comment!


----------



## YZT580

Underway said:


> Again I don't care why he's there.  Judging from your previous posts I would guess that you would have posted this exact same thing two weeks ago with slightly different wording.  I don't think anything the current Gov't could have done would have made you happy.
> 
> Compassion has a place and so does cold hard calculation.  This meeting had a little of both, and I'm willing to bet the real sauce came from Christina's and Melanie's meetings when the cameras were not flashing.


You are probably correct.  Trudeau would have to do something some kind of wonderful to change my opinion of him but, I would dearly love, for the sake of our own nation, to see him show himself as a true leader just once.  It would truly be nice to be wrong


----------



## brihard

YZT580 said:


> pardon my error in my previous post.  I confused Belgorod with Belarus so disregard the entire comment!


I’m not mad, I’m just disappointed.


----------



## YZT580

MilEME09 said:


> You'll be happy to learn that intelligence suggests the 64th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade was wiped out in Izyum over the past week in its entirety. This is the unit identified for the Bucha massacres.


carma


----------



## MilEME09

YZT580 said:


> Isn't there a risk that any strikes within Belgorod would force Belgorod's forces into the battle?


Possible but they are likely heavily battle damaged units meant to simple hold Ukrainian forces in place.


----------



## Kirkhill

FJAG said:


> there is a range of these weapons between the very small which are more appropriate for use by manoeuvre units and very large which are more an RCAF system, that I believe need to be employed by the artillery).
> 
> ... Even rocket launched projectiles are generally of one or two specific types. Gun launched artillery on the other hand is the most versatile as a battery could have a half dozen or more different types of rounds on hand and can easily switch back and forth between them as required. This is why there should always be a mix of artillery systems deployed.
> 
> 🍻



The one system that has always fascinated me, and continues to do so, is the 70 mm rocket system.  It has as many effects as the 105mm howitzer and can be compactly stowed.  

The issue is: Would you consider it artillery or a manoeuvre unit support or even an RCAF system? Or all of the above?


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> The one system that has always fascinated me, and continues to do so, is the 70 mm rocket system.  It has as many effects as the 105mm howitzer and can be compactly stowed.
> 
> The issue is: Would you consider it artillery or a manoeuvre unit support or even an RCAF system? Or all of the above?


Direct or indirect fire? How is it mounted and fired? What is its intended role?


----------



## FJAG

Kirkhill said:


> The one system that has always fascinated me, and continues to do so, is the 70 mm rocket system.  It has as many effects as the 105mm howitzer and can be compactly stowed.
> 
> The issue is: Would you consider it artillery or a manoeuvre unit support or even an RCAF system? Or all of the above?


Clearly useable as an RCAF system (I always wondered why we needed to dispose of 80,000 of them back in the '00s. - I would have liked to see them on pods on helicopters)

The rocket engine as such makes it more a direct fire weapon (such as ground to air). I'd have to know more about its characteristics as to whether it would be suitable in an indirect fire role (I'm not sure what the motor burn time is, what its ground to ground range is, what its CEP is) but there are other systems which have been used like that so I presume its useable. 







The real question is are there systems that provide the same or better effects for the same investment in resources (people and cost)?

I think it's one of those systems that would have a specialized use - such as dropping a mass of fire on top of a large target area - and thus would not be a tool for envisioned day-to-day operations. As you have garnered by now, I'm a fan of massed fires; the CA - not so much.

I think they would be of limited value in the manoeuvre unit because, while it has an excellent anti-armour capability there are better systems out there which provides very efficient anti-armour capabilities which would be less of a logistics burden on the manoeuvre unit.

🍻


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> Direct or indirect fire? How is it mounted and fired? What is its intended role?



Both. All sorts and remotely. The same as a battery of howitzers.



> Common warheads[edit]​The most common warhead for the Hydra 70 rocket is the M151 "10-Pounder," which has a blast radius of 10 meters and lethal fragmentation radius of around 50 meters.[6]
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This section *does not cite any sources*. Please help improve this section by adding citations to reliable sources. Unsourced material may be challenged and removed. _(September 2017) (Learn how and when to remove this template message)_
> 
> DesignationDescriptionWeightPayloadFuze TypeFuzing optionsM151High explosive (HEDP) '10 pounder'8.7 pounds (3.9 kg) (w/o Fuze)2.3 pounds (1.0 kg) Comp B-4 HEM4231,2,5,7,8M156White phosphorus munitions (WP)9.65 pounds (4.38 kg)2.2 pounds (1.00 kg) WPM423 M4291,2,6,7M229High explosive (HEDP); elongated M151 '17 pounder'17.0 pounds (7.7 kg) (Fuzed)4.8 pounds (2.2 kg) Comp B-4 HEM4231,2,6,7M247High-explosive anti-tank (HEAT)/high-explosive dual purpose (HEDP)8.8 pounds (4.0 kg)2.0 pounds (0.91 kg) Comp B HEM438 PD4 (integral to warhead)M255APERS (anti-personnel) warhead2500 28 grains (1.8 g) flechettes9M255E1/A1Flechette warhead14.0 pounds (6.4 kg)1179 60 grains (3.9 g) flechettesM4399M257Parachute illumination11.0 pounds (5.0 kg)One M257 Candle (Flare) 1 million candelaM44210 (integral to warhead)M259White phosphorus (WP)9M261Multi-purpose submunition (MPSM)13.5 pounds (6.1 kg)9 M73 (Grenade) SubmunitionsM439 with M84 electric detonator9M264Red phosphorus (RP) Smoke8.6 pounds (3.9 kg)72 RP PelletsM4399M267MPSM Practice13.5 pounds (6.1 kg)Three Marking SMs, 6 Metal WeightsM439 with M84 electric Detonator9M274Practice (Smoke)9.3 pounds (4.2 kg)2 ounces (57 g) of potassium perchlorate and aluminum powderM4231M278Infra-red (IR) parachute illumination11.0 pounds (5.0 kg)One M278 IR FlareM44210 (integral to warhead)M282Multipurpose penetrator warhead13.7 pounds (6.2 kg)0.98 pounds (0.44 kg) PBXN-110delayedMk 67 Mod 0White phosphorus (WP)1,2,6,7Mk 67 Mod 1Red phosphorus (RP)1,2,6,7WTU-1/BPractice9.3 pounds (4.2 kg)InertNoneNoneWDU-4/AAPERS warhead9.3 pounds (4.2 kg)96 flechettes of unknown weight12 (integral to warhead)WDU-4A/AAPERS warhead9.3 pounds (4.2 kg)2205 20 grains (1.3 g) flechettes12 (integral to warhead)





> The *AGR-20 Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System* (*APKWS*) is a design conversion of Hydra 70 unguided rockets with a laser guidance kit to turn them into precision-guided munitions (PGMs).[7] APKWS is approximately one-third the cost and one-third the weight of the current inventory of laser-guided weapons, has a lower yield more suitable for avoiding collateral damage, and takes one quarter of the time for ordnance personnel to load and unload.













						Hydra 70 - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## MilEME09

Russian senior officers are starting to refuse orders

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523702744153878529


----------



## daftandbarmy

Buy more Lockheed Martin:

Production Of In-Demand Javelin Missiles Set To Almost Double​While being able to double Javelin production in the near term is a good sign, it still highlights a worrisome production capacity issue.​
Lockheed Martin is addressing concerns about the continued supply of shoulder-fired Javelin anti-tank missile systems, one of the key weapons being used by Ukraine in its ongoing defense against the Russian invasion. The company has confirmed that the production rate of the anti-tank missile will be almost doubled, responding to the demand from Ukraine as well as the continued requirement for these weapons to arm the United States and other allies and partners.

Speaking to _CBS News_ yesterday, James Taiclet, the chairman, president, and CEO of Lockheed Martin Corporation, said that the company aims to boost production of the Javelin from the current 2,100 missiles per year to 4,000 per year, a process that could take up to “a couple of years” to achieve. One of the sites where the missiles are manufactured is in Troy, Alabama. Overall, production is shared as a collaboration between Lockheed and Raytheon Technologies.









						Production Of In-Demand Javelin Missiles Set To Almost Double
					

While being able to double Javelin production in the near term is a good sign, it still highlights a worrisome production capacity issue.




					www.thedrive.com


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> Both. All sorts and remotely. The same as a battery of howitzers.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 70643View attachment 70644View attachment 70645View attachment 70646
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hydra 70 - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org


Aren't those just Vietnam era 2.75" rockets?


----------



## Skysix

daftandbarmy said:


> Buy more Lockheed Martin:
> 
> Production Of In-Demand Javelin Missiles Set To Almost Double​While being able to double Javelin production in the near term is a good sign, it still highlights a worrisome production capacity issue.​
> Lockheed Martin is addressing concerns about the continued supply of shoulder-fired Javelin anti-tank missile systems, one of the key weapons being used by Ukraine in its ongoing defense against the Russian invasion. The company has confirmed that the production rate of the anti-tank missile will be almost doubled, responding to the demand from Ukraine as well as the continued requirement for these weapons to arm the United States and other allies and partners.
> 
> Speaking to _CBS News_ yesterday, James Taiclet, the chairman, president, and CEO of Lockheed Martin Corporation, said that the company aims to boost production of the Javelin from the current 2,100 missiles per year to 4,000 per year, a process that could take up to “a couple of years” to achieve. One of the sites where the missiles are manufactured is in Troy, Alabama. Overall, production is shared as a collaboration between Lockheed and Raytheon Technologies.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Production Of In-Demand Javelin Missiles Set To Almost Double
> 
> 
> While being able to double Javelin production in the near term is a good sign, it still highlights a worrisome production capacity issue.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedrive.com


IF they had a supply of semiconductors, there is no reason they couldn't hit 6000 a year without overtime or another production line. Just need to hire and train 2 more shifts of workers. Although the control heads are likely another issue.

Not sure the missile cost or the launcher cost, and how many missiles a launcher can fire before it dies, but I suspect that the NLAW will still be cheaper per launch. And it is likely to be used on bridging equipment, fuel trucks, IFV's, Arty and AA not just tanks.

That said, BOTH should be in the stockpile. The NLAW to be issued at the section level at 1 per man in high intensity situations like Ukraine - as was the M72 or AT4 in years past. More weight (sigh).

Keep the Javelin in the anti-armor section of the weapons platoon at the company level as it has a different targeting and kill strategy IIRC and retire the KarlG other than for bunker busting at the platoon level.


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> Aren't those just Vietnam era 2.75" rockets?


Yep.

But they have found a new life - you can add a precision kit and produce the APKWS to produce a mini ATGM - lower cost and lower collateral damage.  And they can still do area suppression. 

4 km direct fire
8-11 km indirect.


----------



## MilEME09

Speaking of Vietnam era, Russia has supposed started launching Kh-22 missiles at Odessa, that's right, it's your granddaddies missiles. However I am guessing it's the updated kh32


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523737718593060865


----------



## Skysix

Deleted


----------



## Maxman1

Kirkhill said:


> Both. All sorts and remotely. The same as a battery of howitzers.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 70643View attachment 70644View attachment 70645View attachment 70646
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hydra 70 - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org



The CRV7 is better.
CRV7 - Wikipedia


----------



## Underway

Maxman1 said:


> The CRV7 is better.
> CRV7 - Wikipedia


Are they even still in service?  I thought that they were being phased out.  Also, I do believe the Hydra had more warhead options though the CRV crowd was working on allowing the warheads to be interchangeable.

I agree that the CRV7 was better (based on the open-source info), not sure if that's still the case.


----------



## MilEME09

We are destroying our stocks, I do not know if the British still use it.

In other news, Carl still works fine

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523930571784794112


----------



## Good2Golf

It’s as if Carl wasn’t paying attention to Mr.90’s glowing eyes (Shtora)…


----------



## Remius

MilEME09 said:


> We are destroying our stocks, I do not know if the British still use it.
> 
> In other news, Carl still works fine
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523930571784794112


Our 7000 Carl G donation doesn’t look too shabby now lol.

On a serious note, I’d love to see at what range, what ammo type and where exactly they hit the T90.   Lessons learned or just really really good luck.

Assuming this is all true.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Remius said:


> Our 7000 Carl G donation doesn’t look too shabby now lol.


Think of it like Charlie Brown's Christmas tree:   _"I never thought it was such a bad little tree anti-tank weapon. It's not bad at all, really. Maybe it just needs a little love ..."_


----------



## CBH99

Remius said:


> Our 7000 Carl G donation doesn’t look too shabby now lol.
> 
> On a serious note, I’d love to see at what range, what ammo type and where exactly they hit the T90.   Lessons learned or just really really good luck.
> 
> Assuming this is all true.


1.  How the hell did we donate 7000 Carl G’s?  Did we really have that many in excess of our requirements?

2.  I was under the impression that the newer model Carl G is as lethal as ever, with a variety of guided rounds & warhead options.  

Does anybody know if we have any plans to acquire them?  

Are they slowly acquired as needed to replace Carl G systems that are taken out of service, or would it be one mads buy like we do everything else?


----------



## MilEME09

CBH99 said:


> 1.  How the hell did we donate 7000 Carl G’s?  Did we really have that many in excess of our requirements?
> 
> 2.  I was under the impression that the newer model Carl G is as lethal as ever, with a variety of guided rounds & warhead options.
> 
> Does anybody know if we have any plans to acquire them?
> 
> Are they slowly acquired as needed to replace Carl G systems that are taken out of service, or would it be one mads buy like we do everything else?


7000 I think is ammo.

As for the new M4 Carl G, last I was at the weapons school, it was on the table but there hasn't been any movement on the project to replace the entire fleet to M4 standard


----------



## MilEME09

Remius said:


> Our 7000 Carl G donation doesn’t look too shabby now lol.
> 
> On a serious note, I’d love to see at what range, what ammo type and where exactly they hit the T90.   Lessons learned or just really really good luck.
> 
> Assuming this is all true.


Here's close up video for you


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524055017111629825


----------



## Skysix

A little tangential, but it seems there are similarities between the perception and reality of the Russian tank fleet and the current F-35 fleet. 

Hopefully NATO does not suffer the same fate if the Lightning-2 is needed for a high intensity air war anytime soon. 









						Blistering Highlights From The Latest F-35 Sustainment Hearing
					

Lawmakers gave scathing commentary and asked tough questions as to the F-35's poor mission capable rate and chronic sustainment issues.




					www.thedrive.com


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> Here's close up video for you
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524055017111629825


Yup, definitely Carl G, not other tank as some said.

In the video, you can see the characteristic front and back shockwave dust-up from a CG round, about 150m to the tank’s 11:00 o’clock position…right at the 0:09-0:10 mark. Happens just a fraction of a second before the warhead and ERA detonation…


----------



## Remius

Wait I thought it came from the other side.

Edit:  yeah I think GtG is correct.  Was looking at the wrong side


----------



## Good2Golf

Remius said:


> Wait I thought it came from the other side.
> 
> Edit:  yeah I think GtG is correct.  Was looking at the wrong side


I took that as shrapnel/etc. from the CG round’s
debris follow-through…pretty close and open to be the actual shot site….although it would be ballsy enough for UAF to do, if it was the only shot they could get. 👍🏼


----------



## Kirkhill

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520705084019122176


> For 8 years, Ukraine's military has transformed, allowing *front-line personnel to operate creatively & as autonomously as possible. There's a "start-up" mentality* among many troops. That's a big change from the strict, top-down Soviet chain of command—which Russia still employs.


----------



## Skysix

Another lesson from the current Russo-Ukraine war seems to be that there are more than the three domains of combat commonly thought of (Air, Land, Sea). There are also now Cyber (hacking opponents databases, communications and infrastructure control systems), Information (PsyOps, propoganda, foreign media manipulation and OSInt), Space (satellite coms, GPS and ISR) and Civilian (hospitals, emergency services, industry, transportation, food and fuel creation). All 7 of which (C.L.A.S.S.I.C.) need to be resourced and managed or dominated.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Skysix said:


> Another lesson from the current Russo-Ukraine war seems to be that there are more than the three domains of combat commonly thought of (Air, Land, Sea). There are also now Cyber (hacking opponents databases, communications and infrastructure control systems), Information (PsyOps, propoganda, foreign media manipulation and OSInt), Space (satellite coms, GPS and ISR) and Civilian (hospitals, emergency services, industry, transportation, food and fuel creation). All 7 of which (C.L.A.S.S.I.C.) need to be resourced and managed or dominated.



Where does 'Political' fit in there? It's clearly an 'important field of battle' and force multiplier, and one that we in the weeds tend to forget about, especially in an apolitically oriented military.

Might be in the 'Civilian' category.


----------



## KevinB

Easier to say MDO - Multi Domain Operations...


----------



## MilEME09

Well now.....this is awkward 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524095714720108544


----------



## Underway

Good2Golf said:


> Yup, definitely Carl G, not other tank as some said.
> 
> In the video, you can see the characteristic front and back shockwave dust-up from a CG round, about 150m to the tank’s 11:00 o’clock position…right at the 0:09-0:10 mark. Happens just a fraction of a second before the warhead and ERA detonation…
> 
> View attachment 70654


How does a humble CG punch through reactive armor and then an MBT?  And that MBT also had cage armor on it which is specifically designed to defeat HEAT rounds. Seems a bit odd.  Could also be an AT4 which is essentially a disposable CG instead.


----------



## MilEME09

Underway said:


> How does a humble CG punch through reactive armor and then an MBT?  And that MBT also had cage armor on it which is specifically designed to defeat HEAT rounds. Seems a bit odd.  Could also be an AT4 which is essentially a disposable CG instead.


Depends on the version of the Carl G and the ammo, if it's the new M4, or if the newer ammo types work in the M3 and M2 it's possible to punch through.


----------



## Good2Golf

Underway said:


> How does a humble CG punch through reactive armor and then an MBT?  And that MBT also had cage armor on it which is specifically designed to defeat HEAT rounds. Seems a bit odd.  Could also be an AT4 which is essentially a disposable CG instead.


M3 or M4 both capable of using the tandem HEAT round, which easily punches through ERA.


----------



## Good2Golf

Follow-on:

HEAT 751 is the tandem charge variant, actually made by GDOTS-Canada, right here at home.

Far left.










						84mm Ammunition | General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems - Canada
					






					www.gd-otscanada.com


----------



## Weinie

Good2Golf said:


> M3 or M4 both capable of using the tandem HEAT round, which easily punches through ERA.


Meanwhile, a  US Senator launched a round of his own,

U.S. Senator: Canada's a freeloader on defence and it's getting tiring


----------



## Good2Golf

Weinie said:


> Meanwhile, a  US Senator launched a round of his own,
> 
> U.S. Senator: Canada's a freeloader on defence and it's getting tiring


----------



## Czech_pivo

Weinie said:


> Meanwhile, a  US Senator launched a round of his own,
> 
> U.S. Senator: Canada's a freeloader on defence and it's getting tiring


I hope that a few more, a lot more, both Republicans and Democratic’s Senator pick this cry and start singing it each and every time they can. It’s about time we’re call out on this. I hope the Brits start saying the same thing, loud and constant, we totally deserve it.


----------



## McG

Weinie said:


> Meanwhile, a  US Senator launched a round of his own,
> 
> U.S. Senator: Canada's a freeloader on defence and it's getting tiring


Maybe that belongs in one of the threads on Canadian defence spending & capabilities?


----------



## Weinie

McG said:


> Maybe that belongs in one of the threads on Canadian defence spending & capabilities?


Meh. It was stated in a debate about U.S. support to Ukraine.


----------



## Kirkhill




----------



## daftandbarmy

Good2Golf said:


> Follow-on:
> 
> HEAT 751 is the tandem charge variant, actually made by GDOTS-Canada, right here at home.
> 
> Far left.
> View attachment 70661
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 84mm Ammunition | General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems - Canada
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.gd-otscanada.com



And they come with a sporty new launcher, unlike the boat anchor some of us had to haul around


----------



## AlexanderM

OK, so take with a grain of salt but looks like Russians are bugging out of some areas.

Not sure who this is.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524124149618196483

And here from 8hrs ago, but still about retreat. So Russians are having a bad day?? It's all the same area.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524006059110715393


----------



## MilEME09

AlexanderM said:


> OK, so take with a grain of salt but looks like Russians are bugging out of some areas.
> 
> Not sure who this is.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524124149618196483
> 
> And here from 8hrs ago, but still about retreat. So Russians are having a bad day?? It's all the same area.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524006059110715393


All depends on Kozacha Lopan, it's the last major town occupied by Russia in that area. Two days ago it was reported the Russians are digging in. If they completely pull out, that's a major win fir Ukraine as forces will then divert south to move on Izyum


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> All depends on Kozacha Lopan, it's the last major town occupied by Russia in that area. Two days ago it was reported the Russians are digging in. If they completely pull out, that's a major win fir Ukraine as forces will then divert south to move on Izyum


They can dig in all they want. They are surrounded…  

But there is only so much to divert due to the border - they need to have some troops in/around Kharkiv to interdict and deter   .


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> They can dig in all they want. They are surrounded…
> 
> But there is only so much to divert due to the border - they need to have some troops in/around Kharkiv to interdict and deter   .



I think all they are doing at Kozacha Lopan is making a bit of a speed bump ahead of the border crossing on the road to Belgorod.  "Slow.  Customs Ahead."


----------



## Underway

Kirkhill said:


> I think all they are doing at Kozacha Lopan is making a bit of a speed bump ahead of the border crossing on the road to Belgorod.  "Slow.  Customs Ahead."


I just had the thought of a sleepy Russian customs agent completely oblivious to everything.

John Deer tractor pulls up towing a tank back to Russia

"You have anything to declare?  How long have you been in Ukraine?"


----------



## CBH99

Underway said:


> I just had the thought of a sleepy Russian customs agent completely oblivious to everything.
> 
> John Deer tractor pulls up towing a tank back to Russia
> 
> "You have anything to declare?  How long have you been in Ukraine?"


Let’s not forget “Have you been to any farms lately?” or “Have any fruits or veggies in the vehicle?”

🤨


----------



## Skysix

CBH99 said:


> Let’s not forget “Have you been to any farms lately?” or “Have any fruits or veggies in the vehicle?”
> 
> 🤨


Not to mention "do you have any drugs or weapons that you wish to declare"


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524113813024690176

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524167021667176448


----------



## brihard

Kirkhill said:


> I think all they are doing at Kozacha Lopan is making a bit of a speed bump ahead of the border crossing on the road to Belgorod.  "Slow.  Customs Ahead."


What advantage would crossing the border in force give them? That just commits them to attacks into Russia’s own prepare defences, on a home field. I suspect NATO would be loath to put themselves in a position when Russia can accuse them of sharing Intel that facilitates ground attacks on Russian soil.

I could see Ukraine leveraging the border to artillery raids to smash infrastructure of logistical significance. The mere presence of Ukrainian forces poised in the area will fix some Russian forces the way the Russians have fixed forces IVO Kyiv and Odessa. But sending forces physically into Russia in any strength would change a lot of things and probably not for the better.


----------



## Kirkhill

brihard said:


> What advantage would crossing the border in force give them? That just commits them to attacks into Russia’s own prepare defences, on a home field. I suspect NATO would be loath to put themselves in a position when Russia can accuse them of sharing Intel that facilitates ground attacks on Russian soil.
> 
> I could see Ukraine leveraging the border to artillery raids to smash infrastructure of logistical significance. The mere presence of Ukrainian forces poised in the area will fix some Russian forces the way the Russians have fixed forces IVO Kyiv and Odessa. But sending forces physically into Russia in any strength would change a lot of things and probably not for the better.



I agree with you. I think it is the Russians putting up the speed bump just in case the Ukrainians decide to push through.  It would make more sense for the Ukrainians to halt their side of the line.


----------



## Weinie

brihard said:


> What advantage would crossing the border in force give them? That just commits them to attacks into Russia’s own prepare defences, on a home field. I suspect NATO would be loath to put themselves in a position when Russia can accuse them of sharing Intel that facilitates ground attacks on Russian soil.
> 
> I could see Ukraine leveraging the border to artillery raids to smash infrastructure of logistical significance. The mere presence of Ukrainian forces poised in the area will fix some Russian forces the way the Russians have fixed forces IVO Kyiv and Odessa.* But sending forces physically into Russia in any strength would change a lot of things and probably not for the better.*


Let the Russians lick their wounds, and the populace consider who sent so many to die. I am not sure that Vlad will be able to overcome this maladventure.


----------



## Kirkhill

This is claimed to be the results of Russian artillery fire.  I assume it was a large target.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523236126919696385


----------



## Kirkhill

Yesterday there was some chatter about Russian pontoons.  


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523943999932968960

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524019118550224897


----------



## MilEME09

For ref, here are arty ranges from near Kharkiv, RF supply routes now in range

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524185480857853952


----------



## Skysix

Since economic sanctions have proven fairly weak, especially since the west continues to fund Putin's war with petro-euros, maybe we should listen to this guy's strategy 









						To Really Hurt Russia’s Economy, Target Investment and Human Capital, Not Gas - War on the Rocks
					

In early 2015, I found myself presenting economic projections, via simultaneous translation, to an audience of po-faced Russian economists gathered in



					warontherocks.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

First really granular account I've found of life in newly-occupied eastern Ukraine near 2014/15-occupied areas , via UKR media ....








						Occupied Donbas: lack of water and men, return of hryvnia, and hatred towards "refugees"
					

"Where have you been for eight years" is one of the propaganda stamps used by russians to justify their atrocities in the peaceful cities of Ukraine. In fact, for the past eight years, the topic of "protecting the people of Donbas" from "nationalists and banderivtsi" [banderivtsi - the patriotic...




					en.lb.ua
				



Intriguing bits include how refugees from Ukraine moved to now-occupied Ukraine are getting paid more to be there than people living there from the get-go - that must make it really ... neighbourly ...


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> Yesterday there was some chatter about Russian pontoons.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523943999932968960
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524019118550224897


If that was arty it was specifically accurate and sparing. I guess the 777/Excalibur combo is being put to good use.


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> Yesterday there was some chatter about Russian pontoons.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523943999932968960
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524019118550224897




The Russians moved into Izyum at the beginning of March and took two weeks to cross the bridge.  They have now taken two more months to get out of the valley an up onto the "firm going" of the steppes (a bit muddy but still).

What makes it more likely that they will do better 100 km downstream at Bilohorivka?


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> If that was arty it was specifically accurate and sparing. I guess the 777/Excalibur combo is being put to good use.


I didn't think Excalibur could hit moving targets .... but I guess that has changed?









						Moving Target? No Problem for the U.S Army's Excalibur "S" Artillery Round
					

The Army has successfully fired a 155mm Excalibur round 60 kilometers - marking a technical breakthrough and progressing toward its stated goal of being able to outrange and outgun Russian and Chinese weapons.




					nationalinterest.org


----------



## MilEME09

What's going on here????


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524190264637673479


----------



## Weinie

MilEME09 said:


> What's going on here????
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524190264637673479


Prep for a tactical nuke strike?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Weinie said:


> Prep for a tactical nuke strike?



'Pull back 30 klicks then nuke 'em' was a popular Cold War battle cry, as I recall


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> This is claimed to be the results of Russian artillery fire.  I assume it was a large target.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523236126919696385



This Ukrainian video of an Uragan MRLS might explain the Russian effort









						Ukrainian artillerymen post video of Uragan MLRS performance
					

In the southern direction, Ukrainian artillery has been actively destroying Russian forces with the help of Uragan MLR systems. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Skysix

Does anyone know what the blue right armband means, vs blue left vs blue on both. Same for yellow. I am guessing yellow is TDF and blue is UKR army....


----------



## CBH99

Weinie said:


> Prep for a tactical nuke strike?


The Kremlin publically stated about a week ago that nobody needed to fear Russia using nuclear weapons in it’s conflict with Ukraine.

So on that note, I wouldn’t rule out the use of tactical nukes in the Ukraine.  Disguised as a false flag, ofcourse - with Russian slip ups that are almost comical in nature


----------



## The Bread Guy

daftandbarmy said:


> 'Pull back 30 klicks then nuke 'em' was a popular Cold War battle cry, as I recall


Or "pull in right chest-to-chest so they can't nuke us", right?


----------



## The Bread Guy

CBH99 said:


> The Kremlin publically stated about a week ago that nobody needed to fear Russia using nuclear weapons in it’s conflict with Ukraine.
> 
> So on that note, I wouldn’t rule out the use of tactical nukes in the Ukraine.  Disguised as a false flag, ofcourse - with Russian slip ups that are almost comical in nature


Good call - especially with the same info-machine also saying this four days before Operatiom "Happy De-Nazification Day, Brothers - Welcome Back to USSR 2.0!" ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

From the "accusing the other guy of doing things you did" file, this from RUS state media ....

I guess if ANYONE can recognize Ukrainians being starved out, it's USSR 2.0 ....


----------



## Underway

Just so people have a reference discussing nuclear weapons...

Tactical nukes are not massive mushroom clouds like the A-Bomb.  They are much smaller yields that destroy city blocks and small villages.  One US General answered a question in a recent interview "the only way you can kill 50 thousand people with a tactical nuke is if you put them all in a stadium.  Russia has no need for tactical nuclear weapons in this conflict because it doesn't give them any capability that they don't already have conventionally"


----------



## Czech_pivo

Underway said:


> Just so people have a reference discussing nuclear weapons...
> 
> Tactical nukes are not massive mushroom clouds like the A-Bomb.  They are much smaller yields that destroy city blocks and small villages.  One US General answered a question in a recent interview "the only way you can kill 50 thousand people with a tactical nuke is if you put them all in a stadium.  Russia has no need for tactical nuclear weapons in this conflict because it doesn't give them any capability that they don't already have conventionally"


What if the tac nuk was set off (or the nuc matter within a tac nuc was placed) near the drinking reservoir of a place like Kyiv or Kharkov?  Between the time the nuc is placed/set off and the time the information is widely disseminated to the surrounding population, a large amount of people could have drank, washed, prepared food with that water.  Would that not easily surpass 50k people?


----------



## Kirkhill

Underway said:


> Just so people have a reference discussing nuclear weapons...
> 
> Tactical nukes are not massive mushroom clouds like the A-Bomb.  They are much smaller yields that destroy city blocks and small villages.  One US General answered a question in a recent interview "the only way you can kill 50 thousand people with a tactical nuke is if you put them all in a stadium.  Russia has no need for tactical nuclear weapons in this conflict because it doesn't give them any capability that they don't already have conventionally"



Is the value of the Tac Nuke in its physical effect or its political effect?   Just the fact that we have to define the terms of art and tell people we're not talking Hiroshima here speaks to the real value of the Tactical Nuclear Device - the Fear it generates.

But that is before it is used.

Once it is used there will be an instantaneous panic - but then people will have an opportunity to assess the effects and come to terms with them - assuming that some idiot doesn't immediately go to Plan A and launch everything in a retaliatory strike.  

If the weapon is assessed then people will see that we are talking about a less than Fukushima or Chernobyl event and accommodate.

And that is Vlad's best outcome.  A damp squib.

The worst outcome is that he orders the strike and nothing happens.


----------



## McG

Czech_pivo said:


> What if the tac nuk was set off (or the nuc matter within a tac nuc was placed) near the drinking reservoir of a place like Kyiv or Kharkov?  Between the time the nuc is placed/set off and the time the information is widely disseminated to the surrounding population, a large amount of people could have drank, washed, prepared food with that water.  Would that not easily surpass 50k people?


No.  The distribution system is full of water that has to pass through the pipes before water currently in the reservoir starts to come out the taps.
Also, most radiation from a nuclear blast is temporary. You need a low altitude detonation with the fireball contacting the surface in order to generate an enduring contamination, and if you have targeted a reservoir that low blast is likely to throw much of the water out of the reservoir while destroying any pumping station.


----------



## Weinie

Underway said:


> Just so people have a reference discussing nuclear weapons...
> 
> Tactical nukes are not massive mushroom clouds like the A-Bomb.  They are much smaller yields that destroy city blocks and small villages.  One US General answered a question in a recent interview "the only way you can kill 50 thousand people with a tactical nuke is if you put them all in a stadium.  Russia has no need for tactical nuclear weapons in this conflict because it doesn't give them any capability that they don't already have conventionally"


Yeah. Get that. They also will poison the city or small village for generations. So, say only 500 people in the small village die, which is 1% of the U.S. General's assertion. That still is a lot of people.


----------



## suffolkowner

Is there some kind of actual framework for what constitutes a tactical nuke versus a strategic one? Some amount of kilotons?


----------



## Kirkhill

Weinie said:


> Yeah. Get that. They also will poison the city or small village for generations. So, say only 500 people in the small village die, which is 1% of the U.S. General's assertion. That still is a lot of people.



Halabja might be a comparable event.  









						Remembering Halabja chemical attack
					

Chemical weapons are the ultimate psychological weapon for those who are willing to use them.




					www.aljazeera.com
				




The effect on the tactical situation was non-existent.
The effect on the population was to split it into those who fled and those who fought.
The effect on the world at large was one of disgust.
The effect on the regime was isolation.
The lasting effect - forgotten.


----------



## Underway

Weinie said:


> Yeah. Get that. They also will poison the city or small village for generations. So, say only 500 people in the small village die, which is 1% of the U.S. General's assertion. That still is a lot of people.


From an effects perspective, it's mainly political.  Russia can just drop 100 conventional 152mm munitions on that same village and kill the same number of people.  Or hit them with one of their big dumb bombs that the Blackjacks are dropping the Azov Steelworks.

That's all I'm saying so people understand that a tac nuc isn't some giant fireball that blows a km's wide hole in the line and destroys cities.  When they start saturating a place with tac nuc's or dropping the H/A-bomb equivalents that's when things become an entirely different effect on the battlefield.

That's why Russia won't just go with a single tac nuc. If they are going to go that way they are just going to saturate the same zone with masses of conventional artillery and air dropped ordinance.   Much fewer political ramifications and they can then advance through the area without worrying about residual radiation.


----------



## Kirkhill

Interesting video of a partisan volunteer group talking about their early contacts with the Russians and their view of the prospects.
Obligatory Feu de Joie at the beginning but the commentary is very staid. - English subtitles


----------



## suffolkowner

Seems like theres quite a range and a lot of overlap on tactical nukes

Hiroshima and Nagasaki were 15 and 20 kilotons
W29 Davy Crocket is 20 tons
W89 anti submarine warhead had a yield of 200 tons
B61 0.3 kilotons to 340 kilotons


----------



## Underway

suffolkowner said:


> Seems like theres quite a range and a lot of overlap on tactical nukes
> 
> Hiroshima and Nagasaki were 15 and 20 kilotons
> W29 Davy Crocket is 20 tons
> W89 anti submarine warhead had a yield of 200 tons
> B61 0.3 kilotons to 340 kilotons


Yah the definitions vary, but mostly you're looking for a weapon system that has a tactical effect on the battlefield.  Lots of people define them by their range, not their effect.  Which is not generally the right angle to be looking at them from.

I would start with 152mm nuclear artillery shell sizes and then work my way up.  Anything that is in the double digits for KT is just too big, that has a strategic effect on the battlespace not tactical.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

This made me laugh, not because the situation isn't tragic but just because I can picture our politicians saying something stupid like this 🤣


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524117600069988352


----------



## Underway

Humphrey Bogart said:


> This made me laugh, not because the situation isn't tragic but just because I can picture our politicians saying something stupid like this 🤣
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524117600069988352


That Ukrainian President is such a comedian...


----------



## CBH99

Weinie said:


> Yeah. Get that. They also will poison the city or small village for generations. So, say only 500 people in the small village die, which is 1% of the U.S. General's assertion. That still is a lot of people.


That’s the good soul in you speaking.

To the west, if we picture 500 people dying, it seems like a big number.  

The high school around the corner from me has about 450 students.  I can envision all of them standing in the school field, plus 50 more - and poof.  Gone.

Seems like a lot.  Seems like enough people the world would say “Wowa, nope!”



But then we look at civilian casualties, sometimes very intentional, just in this conflict alone.  And I’m reminded that 500 is nothing, the way these things are calculated…


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

CBH99 said:


> That’s the good soul in you speaking.
> 
> To the west, if we picture 500 people dying, it seems like a big number.
> 
> The high school around the corner from me has about 450 students.  I can envision all of them standing in the school field, plus 50 more - and poof.  Gone.
> 
> Seems like a lot.  Seems like enough people the world would say “Wowa, nope!”
> 
> 
> 
> But then we look at civilian casualties, sometimes very intentional, just in this conflict alone.  And I’m reminded that 500 is nothing, the way these things are calculated…


Civilians are the ones who pay the highest tolls in all Wars.  They are also the ones that have the least to gain.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> This made me laugh, not because the situation isn't tragic but just because I can picture our politicians saying something stupid like this 🤣
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524117600069988352


Question, is Freeland only 5ft?


----------



## suffolkowner

Czech_pivo said:


> Question, is Freeland only 5ft?


yah she's short


----------



## MilEME09

So russia attempted a bridging operation 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524405798956371970


----------



## Weinie

Czech_pivo said:


> Question, is Freeland only 5ft?


FFFA


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Civilians are the ones who pay the highest tolls in all Wars.  They are also the ones that have the least to gain.



I'm not sure that the Ukrainian civilians whose land is being invaded, cities being destroyed, jobs being eliminated, families disrupted, children evacuated, wives and girlfriends abused .... I am not sure that all those civilians would agree they have little to gain.

The old saw is that it takes two to tango.  Wars only happen when one side resists.  When is it worth resisting?

The lived experience of the Ukrainian is a lot different than that of most Canadians.


----------



## Kirkhill

A civilian taking some time off


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/umnv24


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> So russia attempted a bridging operation
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524405798956371970


Thanks. Exactly what I wanted to see after all this talk of bridges and pontoons.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Kirkhill said:


> I'm not sure that the Ukrainian civilians whose land is being invaded, cities being destroyed, jobs being eliminated, families disrupted, children evacuated, wives and girlfriends abused .... I am not sure that all those civilians would agree they have little to gain.


So exactly my point, they are having their stuff destroyed and lives affected.  They have little to gain from the armed conflict.


Kirkhill said:


> The lived experience of the Ukrainian is a lot different than that of most Canadians.


I don't know what point you're trying to make...Or are you just saying water is wet?


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> So russia attempted a bridging operation
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524405798956371970


Both sides have tried a number of bridging ops over the past number of weeks.  A good reminder for the CAF:

Bridging/Obstacle Crossing is really hard and you need to commit a lot of resources to get it done.


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> So exactly my point, they are having their stuff destroyed and lives affected.  They have little to gain from the armed conflict.
> 
> I don't know what point you're trying to make...Or are you just saying water is wet?



So why do you think they feel resistance is worth the effort?  
I am honestly curious because at heart that is the key element of warfare.
Not why do people attack.
But why do people not just acquiesce?  Anything for a peaceful life?


----------



## YZT580

Kirkhill said:


> So why do you think they feel resistance is worth the effort?
> I am honestly curious because at heart that is the key element of warfare.
> Not why do people attack.
> But why do people not just acquiesce?  Anything for a peaceful life?


wasn't that NATO's attitude after 2014?  Anything for a peaceful life?


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Kirkhill said:


> So why do you think they feel resistance is worth the effort?
> I am honestly curious because at heart that is the key element of warfare.
> Not why do people attack.
> But why do people not just acquiesce?  Anything for a peaceful life?


You're using "they" way too broadly.  90% of the people in a conflict zone are just trying to live their lives as best as they can. 

Why do you think there are so many refugees and people scrambling to get out? 

It's easy to talk about "organized resistance" sitting thousands of miles away from the comfort of your Canadian home.  😉


----------



## Kirkhill

Ground unsteady under Vlad's feet



__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uk9mp5


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uji9lj


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ul0rwu



And in this case - same story, two views - either way Vlad is not secure.









						Four Russian governors resign in Kremlin purge as western sanctions bite
					

The Kremlin was removing weak governors amid a worsening economic outlook, said the head of a think tank in Moscow




					nationalpost.com
				












						Several Russian regional governors resign as sanctions start to bite
					

Four Russian regional governors resigned in one day, presumably over Western sanctions introduced after Moscow launched anunprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Reuters reported on May 10.




					english.nv.ua


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> You're using "they" way too broadly.  90% of the people in a conflict zone are just trying to live their lives as best as they can.
> 
> Why do you think there are so many refugees and people scrambling to get out?
> 
> It's easy to talk about "organized resistance" sitting thousands of miles away from the comfort of your Canadian home.  😉



1.6 Million Ukrainians returning to the fight?


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/un9icg

And yes it is easy for me to talk from my armchair.  I am fascinated and wonder how I would do, how my kids would do.... how my parents and grandparents actually did when confronted with exactly the situation the Ukrainians find themselves in now.   Why didn't they go the Chamberlain route and instead followed Churchill?  They had both options open to them.


----------



## TacticalTea

Close-up view of that ill-fated Russian attempt to cross...


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Kirkhill said:


> 1.6 Million Ukrainians returning to the fight?
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/un9icg
> 
> And yes it is easy for me to talk from my armchair.  I am fascinated and wonder how I would do, how my kids would do.... how my parents and grandparents actually did when confronted with exactly the situation the Ukrainians find themselves in now.   Why didn't they go the Chamberlain route and instead followed Churchill?  They had both options open to them.


Talk is easy, action is hard.  

You're acting like nobody here but you understands conflict.  

My family has provided meat to every single conflict this Country has ever fought in.  My American family has fought in all their conflicts as well.

I'd be happy to show you the Nazi battle souvenirs from WW2 my relatives 'acquired'.  

I myself have deployed overseas twice wearing the Canadian flag.  I've been to over 30 Countries in my career.  Seen a few things, done a few things, interacted with a few people.  I've even met a few Ukrainian servicemen along the way 😉

Why bother asking yourself how you would do?  Why not just find out, or contribute your blood + sweat to a worthy cause.  There is going to need to be a rebuilding effort when this is over, they could use someone with your expertise.

There is also an ingoing need for humanitarian efforts.  That would be an extremely good use of your time and effort.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

TacticalTea said:


> Close-up view of that ill-fated Russian attempt to cross...
> View attachment 70683


They really love tossing all their eggs in one basket eh?


----------



## KevinB

Soldier35 said:


> At an arms exhibition in 1993 in Abu Dhabi, Msta-S hit 38 out of 40 targets at a distance of 15 km.


Most nations would call that a massive fail at double that range.  But hey whatever floats your boat, and might explain why some of your ‘NotWar’ invasion operations aren’t going as planned. 

Your facing M777’s than can go 40/40 at 60km so you may want to start the why you lost narrative sooner than later to get your population prepared.


----------



## The Bread Guy

suffolkowner said:


> yah she's short


And Zelensky's not an uber-tall guy, either, so if you're way shorter than him, yeah, you're short.

Then again, my mom used to say the best wine comes from small barrels


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> Rare footage of the explosion of the Russian Iskander missile in close proximity to Ukrainian soldiers appeared



@Soldier35 Do you have any footage of explosions from Russian soldiers using a TOS-1 Thermobaric system on their own colleagues?






						Russia news: Soldiers wipe out own unit in friendly fire fiasco - army morale in tatters | World | News | Express.co.uk
					

RUSSIAN troops opened fire on their own soldiers in a 'friendly' fire fiasco, killing many colleagues and destroying valuable military hardware.




					www.express.co.uk
				






Soldier35 said:


> Footage of the sortie of the Su-35 fighter in Ukraine. The Su-35 fighter is armed with R-73, R-77 short and medium-range air-to-air missiles, as well as Kh-31P anti-radar missiles.



The Russian Su-35 also has a reduced-profile ‘stealth mode,’ appearing flatter than normal to reduce its radar cross-section:


----------



## McG

Kirkhill said:


> I'm not sure that the Ukrainian civilians whose land is being invaded, cities being destroyed, jobs being eliminated, families disrupted, children evacuated, wives and girlfriends abused .... I am not sure that all those civilians would agree they have little to gain.


It is possible that one can have very little to gain while also having very much to lose.


----------



## TacticalTea

Reportage somme toute intéressant, de Reuters:





__





						UN finds ‘credible allegations’ of torture by Ukraine soldiers against Russian invaders
					





					www.msn.com
				






> The UN Human Rights Commission said in a report in late March that it had reviewed 45 cases of *ill-treatment and torture carried out by **civilians, police and members of Ukraine’s territorial defense forces*. A “large number” of the videos it reviewed documented the violations, which targeted pro-Russian forces, looters and curfew violators among others in Ukraine-controlled territories, the report said.
> 
> The report expresses concerns as to *“the abundance of videos publicly available online depicting interrogations of POWs by Ukrainian forces following their capture.* In the videos, POWs are made to apologise to the Ukrainian people, disparage their command, glorify Ukrainian armed forces, or call on relatives to put a stop to the war,” the report says.
> 
> It also notes a moment a captured Russian soldier “was threatened with castration on camera.”
> 
> The New York Times has identified use of banned cluster bombs by Ukranian forces on at least two occasions. The UN has said Ukraine needs to investigate the incidents to make sure those who used these munitions are held accountable.


*Bold, coloured*: the interesting part is that the regular AFU is not mentioned.
Hypothesis #1: Unregimented, irregular forces are more likely to record and publish their (occasionally illicit) activities.
Hypothesis #2: Unregimented, irregular forces are more likely to engage in behaviour that flouts the laws of armed conflict.

*Bold, uncoloured*: interestingly, discussed at length in this very thread.

Source is the UNHRC, which Russia has been suspended from, and whose membership is as follows:


In closing, I need to find synonyms for the word ''interesting''. Can't get away with just translating it to French or adding a suffix...


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

McG said:


> It is possible that one can have very little to gain while also having very much to lose.


It's almost as if they mean sort of the same thing.  Like glass half full vs glass half empty.


----------



## Skysix

Good2Golf said:


> The Russian Su-35 also has a reduced-profile ‘stealth mode,’ appearing flatter than normal to reduce its radar cross-section:
> View attachment 70684


Good one!


----------



## TacticalTea

Humphrey Bogart said:


> It's almost as if they mean sort of the same thing.  Like glass half full vs glass half empty.


I don't entirely disagree with what you're saying on this matter, but this last statement is contradictory to your whole stance.

If they are indeed the same, then Ukrainian civilians actually have A LOT to gain from this war. Which sounds somewhat ridiculous.

Just my little point of logical order ;P Rhetorical hygiene if I may.


----------



## GR66

TacticalTea said:


> I don't entirely disagree with what you're saying on this matter, but this last statement is contradictory to your whole stance.
> 
> If they are indeed the same, then Ukrainian civilians actually have A LOT to gain from this war. Which sounds somewhat ridiculous.
> 
> Just my little point of logical order ;P Rhetorical hygiene if I may.


I think his point is that all Ukrainian civilians are "losing" in this war.  Even if eventually the "win" the conflict.  In any war you may lose a little, lose a lot or lose everything.  Not a lot of upside.


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> I am fascinated and wonder how I would do, how my kids would do.... how my parents and grandparents actually did when confronted with exactly the situation the Ukrainians find themselves in now.   Why didn't they go the Chamberlain route and instead followed Churchill?  They had both options open to them.


When the stated goal of the invaders is the elimination of your nation as an entity, of ethnically clensing you and all your kin, when the troops are deliberately targeting and killing civilians, destroying civilian nonmilitary  facilities, engaging in torture, terrorism, forced relocation of those who they can catch or entice to leave captured villages they might, just MIGHT, decide they would rather die trying to resist or help the resistors or actually pick up arms rather than be tortured or raped in front of family and neighbors by uniformed thugs having fun with what they believe to be subhumans.

The choice between saying go ahead and F me or F you. Even the most snowflakey pacifist millennial is likely to fight back when the other choice is death. And not a clean one. 

The more difficult decisions are made when your loved ones are hostage to your decision and will pay the price for it while you do not.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

TacticalTea said:


> I don't entirely disagree with what you're saying on this matter, but this last statement is contradictory to your whole stance.
> 
> If they are indeed the same, then Ukrainian civilians actually have A LOT to gain from this war. Which sounds somewhat ridiculous.
> 
> Just my little point of logical order ;P


It's circular logic fallacy! If A then B; If B then A 😁

Certain Elites in Ukraine and Russia will gain handsomely from this conflict.

You can't tell me Denis Pushulin or Vladimir Putin isn't benefitting personally from this?

Likewise, now that the Zelensky Regime has managed to survive politically one would argue certain members there will also profit immensely from this:

Increased international clout
Potential EU Membership
A nice rebuilding package from the West  aka Perestroika 2.0
Ability to enact Martial Law and use the crisis to eliminate political opponents

Pretty good deal all for the loss of a little bit of land 😉 might almost make it worth it in some cunning and opportunistic peoples minds.

I'm sure Zelensky was just jumping through hoops to save Mariupol.... the Machiavelli in me says:  "I leave the Azov to die and I gain some symbolic martyrs for the cause while also eliminating potential dangerous political opponents when the smoke has cleared"

Kyiv thanks the Azov for their service 😉


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> When the stated goal of the invaders is the elimination of your nation as an entity, of ethnically clensing you and all your kin, when the troops are deliberately targeting and killing civilians, destroying civilian nonmilitary  facilities, engaging in torture, terrorism, forced relocation of those who they can catch or entice to leave captured villages they might, just MIGHT, decide they would rather die trying to resist or help the resistors or actually pick up arms rather than be tortured or raped in front of family and neighbors by uniformed thugs having fun with what they believe to be subhumans.


And that was just the last time the invaders ran the place.


----------



## Skysix

TacticalTea said:


> Hypothesis #1: Unregimented, irregular forces are more likely to record and publish their (occasionally illicit) activities.





TacticalTea said:


> Hypothesis #2: Unregimented, irregular forces are more likely to engage in behaviour that flouts the laws of armed conflict.


Both likely true. Blood Feud and Revenge overcoming disciple and self control.

However, how much documented evidence of war crimes in the other direction is there and that the UNHRC has investigated (or chosen not to)?

A number in isolation means nothing without context. Bad S happens in war by everyone. The more important datum is how many events per unit of measure are carried out by one side or the other.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Skysix said:


> Both likely true. Blood Feud and Revenge overcoming disciple and self control.
> 
> However, how much documented evidence of war crimes in the other direction is there and that the UNHRC has investigated (or chosen not to)?
> 
> A number in isolation means nothing without context. Bad S happens in war by everyone. The more important datum is how many events per unit of measure are carried out by one side or the other.


And both sides have a mix of conventional units and irregular forces fighting in the conflict zone(s).

There are really at least three separate campaigns being fought by each side.  Each campaign is being fought by different forces that are acting independently at times.


----------



## suffolkowner

Civilians in a conflict zone have a different meaning with the advent of the nation state as opposed to before where they were just a bunch of peasants that the victor inherited. That sense of national purpose and belonging can and has in my opinion only strengthened over time particularly where the ethnic identity and nation are closely coupled together. For my dad in WW2 in Canada I don't think there was any thought other than service at the time such was the appeal/rhetoric/propaganda. Now for my father in law the war actually represented a positive development in his life such were the conditions he was living in prior. Its all a matter of perspective. I'm sure the Russians are having trouble in their controlled areas with sabotage etc.. Im also sure that there must be some studies done on the proportion of people in occupied war zones that actively resist versus collaborate versus just put their heads down and try and survive and maybe even the why


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

suffolkowner said:


> Civilians in a conflict zone have a different meaning with the advent of the nation state as opposed to before where they were just a bunch of peasants that the victor inherited. That sense of national purpose and belonging can and has in my opinion only strengthened over time particularly where the ethnic identity and nation are closely coupled together. For my dad in WW2 in Canada I don't think there was any thought other than service at the time such was the appeal/rhetoric/propaganda. Now for my father in law the war actually represented a positive development in his life such were the conditions he was living in prior. Its all a matter of perspective. I'm sure the Russians are having trouble in their controlled areas with sabotage etc.. Im also sure that there must be some studies done on the proportion of people in occupied war zones that actively resist versus collaborate versus just put their heads down and try and survive and maybe even the why


Both sides are conducting policing actions in their respective territories.  The Ukrainian SBU are arresting collaborators/dissenters in Ukrainian territory while the FSB/Rosgarvdia are conducting their own internal security operations in Russian occupied territories, etc.

Not all of these forces are coordinating or even acting in a synchronized manner with the Army, Government, etc.


----------



## Skysix

Ukrainians Stop Russian Gas at One Hub, Make Gains in East
					

In 11 weeks, the war has played out on battlefields in Ukrainian towns and cities but also in energy and financial markets.




					www.military.com
				




May be more of a psychological than actual effect on Russia


----------



## Blackadder1916

A short piece from DW.  Not a lot of detail, but what caught my attention was the slip-on worn by the young foreign volunteer.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Talk is easy, action is hard.
> 
> You're acting like nobody here but you understands conflict.
> 
> My family has provided meat to every single conflict this Country has ever fought in.  My American family has fought in all their conflicts as well.
> 
> I'd be happy to show you the Nazi battle souvenirs from WW2 my relatives 'acquired'.
> 
> I myself have deployed overseas twice wearing the Canadian flag.  I've been to over 30 Countries in my career.  Seen a few things, done a few things, interacted with a few people.  I've even met a few Ukrainian servicemen along the way 😉
> 
> Why bother asking yourself how you would do?  Why not just find out, or contribute your blood + sweat to a worthy cause.  There is going to need to be a rebuilding effort when this is over, they could use someone with your expertise.
> 
> There is also an ingoing need for humanitarian efforts.  That would be an extremely good use of your time and effort.


The thought of heading over there and help for a sometime in rebuilding (with my 'desk hands' I'll just be loading, moving and unloading debris in a wheelbarrow I imagine) after this wraps up has already occurred to me.  I've brought this up with my wife already and a few of my neighbours (retired TO police officer, TO firefighter) and my brother and their interest was piqued. The TO firefighter has gone a number of times to the area around Gomel in Belarus to help out at a Belarussian orphanage for 2 weeks every year, so he's got experience on the ground for that approximate area. 

Just stating a fact here, not judging or claiming to be holier than thou. 
On Mother's Day I was at my local grocery store picking up a few things when I observed a young girl (15-17yrs) putting food items in her baggy sweatpants.  I watched to make sure I was correctly seeing this and when confirmed, I approached a staff member and informed  them.  I made a choice to report what I was directly seeing.  I could have approached the girl and told her that I saw her putting items in her pockets or I could have done nothing at all.  I could have even offered to pay for those items for that young girl.  Instead, I took the approach that I know my Father/Mother/Grandparents would have taken in the past - see a crime, report a crime - if you don't take action, then you are condoning the crime and are part of the problem.  Maybe my views are 'old fashion' and out of date, but they are some of the foundation stones of what I am today. 

Peace.


----------



## Brad Sallows

A war is always a 'broken window'.  All that can be done is to mitigate the opportunity cost (losses).


----------



## Skysix

Latest candidate for the turret toss Olympics


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Both sides have tried a number of bridging ops over the past number of weeks.  A good reminder for the CAF:
> 
> Bridging/Obstacle Crossing is really hard and you need to commit a lot of resources to get it done.


Well we solved that problem by getting rid of most of our bridging material.


----------



## CBH99

Good2Golf said:


> @Soldier35 Do you have any footage of explosions from Russian soldiers using a TOS-1 Thermobaric system on their own colleagues?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia news: Soldiers wipe out own unit in friendly fire fiasco - army morale in tatters | World | News | Express.co.uk
> 
> 
> RUSSIAN troops opened fire on their own soldiers in a 'friendly' fire fiasco, killing many colleagues and destroying valuable military hardware.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.express.co.uk


Okay I know the humour is dark asf…buuuttt… 😈😂

But did anybody else chuckle at the Ukranian letter supporting the Russian actions against their own?  

Specifically the part about the use of flamethrowers, and the tradition of cooking kabobs in May?


----------



## Weinie

Humphrey Bogart said:


> It's almost as if they mean sort of the same thing.  Like glass half full vs glass half empty.


Sometimes it's nice just to have a glass.


----------



## brihard

Skysix said:


> Latest candidate for the turret toss Olympics


Jesus. Is that a new type of SHORAD?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Finland just signed a security pact with the UK... I assume this is an 'appetizer' to full NATO membership:

Finnish President tells Russia 'You caused this' as he signs security pact with UK​The President of Finland, Sauli Niinistö has told a news conference in Helsinki that Russia's invasion of Ukraine "changed the picture" on the country's security. In a message to Russia he said, "you caused this - look at the mirror". Mr Niinistö was speaking after he  signed a joined security pact with Boris Johnson. For the latest developments: https://qrcode.skynews.com/skynews/uk...


----------



## The Bread Guy

TacticalTea said:


> ... *Bold, coloured*: the interesting part is that the regular AFU is not mentioned.
> Hypothesis #1: Unregimented, irregular forces are more likely to record and publish their (occasionally illicit) activities.
> Hypothesis #2: Unregimented, irregular forces are more likely to engage in behaviour that flouts the laws of armed conflict ...


Well, to be entirely fair to the Territorials, UKR mil intelligence shared a memo to soldiers early on (Google Translation attached) about 3  weeks or so into the latest invasion reminding troops that killing prisoners was not on, so someone in system was thinking, "ya know, this (could get/is getting) pretty ugly".

Or it could also be a case of this ....


----------



## Maxman1

TacticalTea said:


> Close-up view of that ill-fated Russian attempt to cross...
> View attachment 70683



That's why you always pay the $5 for the ferry instead of trying to ford the river.


----------



## Kirkhill

TacticalTea said:


> Close-up view of that ill-fated Russian attempt to cross...
> View attachment 70683



Some additional photographs of the same action.  Attributed to the Ukrainian 17th Tank Brigade.   I believe the 17th has been reconstituted twice in the last two months.  I remember reading that it was badly chewed up in the Slobozhansky area.  The three pictures together seem to show 30 or so burnt out armoured vehicles.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/unev7d


----------



## Kirkhill

An interesting thread about why a tank tossed its turret 100 km behind the front lines and 13 km from the Russian border.

Apparently Donetsk may not be secure even after 8 years of occupation.  On the other hand Novoazovsk isn't far from Mariupol either.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524448245539393539


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> Some additional photographs of the same action.  Attributed to the Ukrainian 17th Tank Brigade.   I believe the 17th has been reconstituted twice in the last two months.  I remember reading that it was badly chewed up in the Slobozhansky area.  The three pictures together seem to show 30 or so burnt out armoured vehicles.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/unev7d


More on the event


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524413089579511808


----------



## Kirkhill

Nathan Ruser assessing the Bilohirovka crossing(s).  He can only find two of the four crossings claimed by the Russians and both of the sites Ruser has spotted have been struck.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524403684482105345


----------



## MilEME09

In wholesome news


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524527182097301504


----------



## Weinie

MilEME09 said:


> In wholesome news
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524527182097301504


And On Russian Target Lists for tomorrow: Odesa Archaeological Museum.


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> In wholesome news
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524527182097301504



Oh sure... but when my troops did the same thing on Salisbury Plain all I got was extras


----------



## rmc_wannabe

daftandbarmy said:


> Oh sure... but when my troops did the same thing on Salisbury Plain all I got was extras


Be thankful it was just that. Digging cable trenches in Poland, we may or may not have caused a UXO scare when we hit an old German CBRN kit with an iodine pack. Looks a bit like VX after 70 years. Ruffled a few feathers....


----------



## dapaterson

#Engineers


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524506104192974849


----------



## Weinie

daftandbarmy said:


> Oh sure... but when my troops did the same thing on Salisbury Plain all I got was extras


The problem was that you tried to drink them.


----------



## MilEME09

dapaterson said:


> #Engineers
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524506104192974849


Sounds like someone is getting a new medal soon


----------



## Weinie

MilEME09 said:


> Sounds like someone is getting a new medal soon


He lost me (and the medal) at the time he cited PayPal/donations.


----------



## MilEME09

Latest ISW, including mention of unconfirmed Ukrainian counter attack north of Izyum desig Ed to cut the BTGs there off.






						Institute for the Study of War
					

Russian forces did not make any significant advances anywhere in Ukraine on May 11, and Ukrainian forces took further ground northeast of Kharkiv. The Ukrainian counteroffensive north of Kharkiv City has forced Russian troops onto the defensive and




					understandingwar.org


----------



## daftandbarmy

Rolling Stones sends one for the Log Wogs 


*Supplying Ukrainian Fighters With Everything From Body Armor to Cigarettes 

Riding shotgun through the Donbas with Ihor Koval, who took a break from his life as an entrepreneur in Cleveland to help his countrymen take on Putin’s invasion*


Just outside the city limits of Slovyansk, an Eastern Ukrainian city not far from the frontlines, the driver in the lead van switches on the hazard lights and pulls over. “They’re going to put on their [bulletproof] vests,” says Ihor Koval, pulling in behind them. Ihor is the driver of the van I’m in and the organizer of this trip to deliver supplies to the Ukrainian Army Forces, among them volunteers who have signed up to fight one of the largest armies in the world. It’s the last leg of a 20-hour drive across nearly the entire width of Ukraine, and we’ve long since entered the Donbas, the flashpoint region in the east.

The last few weeks have seen the Russian invasion of Ukraine begin a shift to a new stage. After failing to encroach on multiple fronts and encircle Kyiv due to strong resistance from Ukrainian forces, the Russian military has pulled back to concentrate their shattered forces in an effort to fully capture and annex the Donbas region, where the initial invasion began eight years earlier. This is where many fear the war will enter a new, even more brutal phase as two entrenched armies fight a modern day war of attrition with tanks and artillery blitzing everything in their path. It will be grinding, and it will be bloody, and there will be destruction and death visited on these lands that will take generations to heal.

Despite the billions in heavy weaponry and materiels pouring into Ukraine, many fighters tasked with holding the line are still lacking in necessary supplies like body armor, consumer drones, and nighttime optics. So-called volunteers and informal networks like those organized by Ihor have taken it upon themselves to raise donations and sort out these logistics, sourcing supplies from all over the world. And as Russian forces now regroup and focus their efforts here in the east, Ihor is feverishly trying to ensure that those fighting them, including his cousin, are not left wanting for anything that could give them an advantage or save their lives.

Right now, though, Ihor is dead-set on making sure the Ukrainian volunteers awaiting this push from Russian forces at the very least have their share of traditional sausages and pastries for Easter this weekend. “I don’t care, man. I feel like I owe these guys big time,” Ihor leans over to me and says, referring to the fighters at the front. “And I don’t care what’s gonna happen to me. One way or the other I’m gonna die, why not die doing this?”

The day the Russian invasion started, Ihor, who has lived in Cleveland for the last 30 years, was on a plane to Poland so he could come do his part. Next to him in the van’s cup holder is a reminder of the life he’s currently left behind: a bottle of Alcohol Killer, a sparkling fruit drink that serves as a hangover remedy and whose importation and distribution is his main source of income, along with a commercial roofing company he runs in Cleveland. “I’m telling you, dude, just have some and 30 minutes later you’ll be feeling great,” he had told me the night before as Jameson bottles were brought out among the motley crew of volunteers he’s gathered to run his supply convoys into the heart of the the biggest war in Europe in generations.

*Ihor Koval is tall and blond,* well over six feet and with the sturdy physique of the champion swimmer he once was in his Soviet youth growing up in Lviv, Ukraine. He bears a striking resemblance to the actor Daniel Craig, and is fond of calling everyone “dude.” These days, he barely sleeps, juggling two phones receiving constant messages and calls, military updates and supply chain issues. Logistics are challenging for normal companies during normal times. He must now do all of that with a minuscule budget in a war zone. Right now there’s a guy in Bulgaria with a bunch of tactical vests. He needs to get them to Poland, and then across the border into Lviv, all as quickly as possible.

Earlier that day, two vans and a truck had already been loaded up at the warehouse on the outskirts of Lviv, including medical supplies, tourniquets, bulletproof vests, generators, fuel, cooking oil, all manners of dried food, batteries, binoculars, coffee, cigarettes, Easter pastries and sausages, and care packages from family members in the west of the country.

The only thing missing is this package containing seven thermal vision monoculars, which have been among the most requested items at the fronts. Ihor had dispatched a young woman, a relative, to retrieve it and bring it over the Polish border from Krakow, but it looks like she’ll be spending the night. He usually sends young women, as they have less problems at the border. Unfortunately, the thermal visions are too important, and we’ll be forced to push the trip back another day. “It was supposed to be here today, and now the UPS tracking website site is telling me it won’t be here until tomorrow,” Ihor says, exasperated.

It’s 8:45 p.m. the next night when the thermal optics finally make it to the volunteer headquarters base. We head off into the night, the weather rainy and cold. Ukraine’s cities are under curfew, and nearly all vehicles are banned from the roads unless they’re trucks transporting goods, but Ihor is connected and has arranged official permission slips to show at the numerous checkpoints that dot the highway. We set off in two cargo vans and an L200 Mitsubishi truck he plans on leaving with a Georgian fighter he’s been friends with for years. Fighters are in desperate need of civilian vehicles that can make it through the muddy terrain, especially for taking the wounded 1-2 kilometers away to the ambulances that can’t make it through the muck.

The other men among our crew, all of them volunteers, are delighted by the new walkie talkies they’ve received, and the one in our car frequently squawks with messages for “Gringo,” the codename they’ve decided to give Ihor. Everyone is in good spirits despite the inherent risk in venturing into an active war zone in an unprotected civilian vehicle without guns.

It’s a 15-hour nonstop drive to Dnipro, the fourth largest city in Ukraine with a population of over a million, and that has quickly developed into a hub in the east. The roads are mostly deserted except for military vehicles and trucks transporting goods, as well as checkpoints and manned fortifications near every city and big town. Ihor points out the lack of road signs on the highways, all taken down in the hopes of confusing Russian invaders. His phones continued to buzz with notifications of military movements and messages about funding, about supplies, logistics, everything that he must handle to keep the operation running. Coincidentally, it’s something he’s almost perfectly suited to do, like he’s been training for it his whole life.

*Born in Lviv* in 1964, Ihor came of age in the last days of the Soviet Union. He grew up hearing the stories of the Holodomor, the Soviet-created famine that killed millions of Ukrainians in the 1930s, from his grandfather, who grew up in the east of the country and only survived by catching fish in shallow ponds behind his home. He remembers bread lines and food shortages in the 1980s. But he also remembers summers in Crimea swimming in the sea and meeting girls, traveling around as a champion swimmer. In 1989, he was drafted into the Soviet military to go to the war in Afghanistan, a brutal engagement that decimated tens of thousands of young men, but luckily the Soviets pulled out before he deployed.

The country was falling apart then, and as the USSR started to open up economically, he got took on the entrepreneurial spirit. While working for the city of Lviv, he started taking goods from Ukraine to Poland to sell at markets. When Mikhaeil Gorbachev further opened up the Soviet Union to free enterprise, he got involved in a chandelier business.

But in 1992, Ihor’s uncle got him an invitation to come to the United States. He arrived in Cleveland, Ohio, with no English language skills and no job opportunities. Now the city has a sizable Ukrainian population, but back then he says he was one of only a handful. He got a job literally digging ditches for a cement company. It was hard work, but he was a true believer in the American dream. He says in those tough early days, he thought back to the words of his swim coach in Ukraine, the famous Georgy Prokopenko, who was a silver medalist in Tokyo in 1964: You have to be persistent in everything you do. “I had a lot of things in my life that didn’t play out easily. But I was persistent,” Ihor says.

Soon he got a job bartending nights in a strip club called Crazy Horse. During the day he would work on his English, using a Ukrainian-English dictionary his mother had mailed him and trying to read economics textbooks a friend had left him. He was fluent within a year, and started working on small business ideas. He was a consummate hustler. He would buy motor oil in Florida and sell it in Lviv. He set up some IT consulting agencies in Ukraine. He had an internet company that helped people sell things on Ebay. At one point, he was importing suits from Ukraine into the U.S. At another time it was motorcycles. None of his ventures was a stunning success, but none of them failed.

In 2007, he stumbled onto a product for sale on Ali Baba called Alcohol Killer. He ordered a sample, loved it, swore it worked, and started importing and distributing it in Eastern Europe, South America, and the States, where it’s called Xorb. It’s available at many gas stations in Ukraine, and whenever we pull in to refuel and buy snacks he always makes sure to check to see how it’s selling.

He later started a commercial roofing business, where he managed crews taking on big projects all over Cleveland. He had arrived in the country at 28 with no money, no English, and no contacts, and turned himself into a successful small businessman through sheer determination. “You know how I feel sometimes, like I lived two lives,” he tells me. “One life in the Soviet Union, and one in the States.”

All of these experiences, from coordinating shipments and sourcing supplies all over the world, managing small teams of employees and everything in between, have served him well in his new role: supplying the fighters on the front with what they need. He is a one-man force, raising funds, finding equipment, arranging for all of it to get to Lviv, and then sometimes taking it himself through the eye of the storm, all while uttering, “No problem, dude.”

A high-level NGO employee who works for one of the premier global organizations dealing in conflict zones would later tell me that she’s never seen anything like the response in Ukraine from civilians and volunteers to provide aid and supplies. “It’s like they don’t even need us,” she exclaimed over coffee in Kyiv.

When the Russians first invaded in the east in 2014, Ihor started raising funds to buy supplies for the Ukranians fighting there. But he grew impatient with what he saw as somewhat ineffective efforts in the groups he worked in. Sure, they were helping the families of the dead soldiers, but he wanted to do something to actually try to stop the soldiers from being killed in the first place. He tells me of some of those trips, going to a morgue in Debaltseve, a village southeast from Slovyansk, and seeing the bodies of 23 soldiers in the morgue. He helped buy some ambulances, but when he wanted to send bulletproof vests, the groups he worked with weren’t interested. He decided to go his own way.

He ended up being able to send some vests, and later a soldier would tell him that it saved his life. He continued with small fundraisers here and there, but when the full scale Russian invasion kicked off on February 24, he was on a plane to Lviv the next day. His children helped set up everything officially as a registered NGO and a website, called Evil Cannot Enter Heaven, and he’s been working tirelessly ever since.

*The night passes* uneventfully, our life stories told to each other and war updates constantly given as various Telegram and Viber channels deliver bursts of information. More Russian shelling is occurring in the areas we’re headed to. As the sun rises we pass impossibly large wheat fields spread out on both sides of the road. This is Ukraine’s bread basket, prized by Hitler and Stalin, where seven percent of the word’s high grade wheat is grown, according to _The Washington Post_. “You see that topsoil? Better than anything you can find at Home Depot,” Ihor says, referring to the dark black dirt that stretches out before us.

The tension here is much stronger. The checkpoints get more thorough, the soldiers manning them more serious. These are not the volunteers of the western cities, in ill-fitting camo holding older weapons. These are tested soldiers, with new kit, who fear saboteurs and Russian infiltration, who hear the shelling and still face the realistic threat of invaders at the gates.

The eastern cities are also drearier, with more Soviet block housing. Hedgehogs, the steel contraptions meant to block tanks, are everywhere on the roads. Bulldozers in the distant fields are digging trenches hundreds of yards long. Despite all of this, when we pull into Dnipro, it is bustling like Lviv. Old men paint fences in their front yards, street vendors sell fruits and vegetables, and couples stroll to cafes. There are many soldiers around, and some stores have boarded up windows, but the people seem determined to continue living as normally as possible.

Despite his early efforts to fortify the fighters in the east, Ihor originally felt a bit ambivalent about the way the people reacted to the Russians taking over territory. He thought they could have resisted more, that too many of them welcomed them, that they didn’t want to speak or be Ukrainian. But the trips with young fighters changed his mind. “It made an impression on me, at the time I was living in the U.S., that such a brave generation that came up. They weren’t even born when I left for the United States. And they all spoke Russian at the time,“ he said.

One of the major Russian propaganda points used to justify the war is the accusation that Russian-language speakers are being persecuted. To hear Ihor tell it, most of the men he met fighting _against_ the initial invasion in 2014 all spoke Russian to each other, which proved a little confusing at times. “To tell you the truth, I used to think these weren’t my people at times,” he says of the Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the east. “But that [the fighters’ dedication] made such a big impression on me. These people are Ukranians, they are fighting for Ukraine.” He adds, “We have to protect them. For sure these are our people.”

We arrive at the house where we’ll be staying the night. The women who live there have been cooking meals daily to deliver to fighters hours away, and have given up their home to our crew for the next 12 hours. One of them asks me why I wanted to come to Ukraine now as a journalist. I give her the usual litany of conflict reporter reasons and add that it’s important, history is being made. “But I don’t want to live in history, I want to live in peace!” she replies, laughing uproariously.

Throughout the course of the afternoon, various soldiers come by to pick up supplies, mostly tourniquets and some packages from family members. Bogdan Poltorak, 47, is a sergeant stationed in Kharkiv by Izyum, where some of the heaviest fighting is ongoing. Asked what is needed out there, he laughs and says, “We need the thing that only your president can give; we need drones that can fly all the way to Moscow.”

Poltorak says the Russians have the advantage in the air, but when the infantry comes in they just run away. “We’re using the javelins better than the Americans do,” he says, referring to the shoulder launched rockets that have become a symbol of the war for their ability to take out Russian tanks. He adds, “It’s going to be more Russians as fertilizers for the ground and our wheat is gonna grow better.”

I ask him what he plans to do after the war. He looks at me incredulously, as if I asked an entirely silly question. “We’re going to rebuild and then I’m going to go back to driving a truck,” he says. When I ask men what they’ll do after the war, the answer is always the same. Go back to my life. The implication is clear. They’re simply fighting for their home, so they can go back to their normal lives.

The women at the house prepare a feast for us and bottles of Jameson are also brought out, despite the 3:30 a.m. wakeup call the next day to drive into what will soon be one of the most fiercely contested areas of the country. Ihor has been pushing me to try Alcohol Killer, swearing it will cure whatever slowness alcohol can induce tomorrow morning.

Joining us at the table is the man they call The Georgian, Nodar Karashivili. With a shaved head and five-o’clock shadow in his camo fatigues, he looks the fierce fighter he is said to be, commanding a high level of respect from everyone at the table. He started fighting in the east in 2017, and has been fighting the Russian forces off and on since then.

“So you understand, I started fighting with Russia in my head when I was 13,” he tells me. He’s been fighting them for nearly as long with his body, as well. He tells me of witnessing the April 9, 1989 massacre when Georgians rose up to protest against the Soviet Union and the military killed 21 protesters and injured hundreds of others, and shows me a four-inch scar on his arm from when a Soviet soldier hit him with a shovel. Over the next few years, he then fought against what he says were Russian-supported separatists in the Ossetia and Abkhazia regions, though the amount of Russian support is disputed.

“If we don’t kill them here, they’re going to kill us in Georgia,” he says. “My country is very small, 3.5 million people. We don’t have enough resources to show the real evil that exists in the Russian government and how they treat the other nationalists and minorities.”

For him, that meant fighting in the trenches in Donetsk these last few years, which he describes as a positioning war, where they lacked supplies, attention, and big tactical movements. He’s cagey about where he’s fighting at the moment, though he says every day there’s shelling, every day there is a fight, every day they advance with a few tanks to see what’s going on and then pull back. I ask him if he’s hopeful. “Without a hope, I don’t fight,” he says. “Ukraine is the Statue of Liberty now.”

*The following morning* begins at 3:30 a.m. as we make our way further east. The towns and cities we pass now have a different feel. Many of the homes and shops have plywood boarding up their windows. Kramatorsk, one of the bigger cities in the area and a major target, is intensely fortified, with big mounds of dirt and massive slabs of concrete blocking roads, often ringed by the metal hedgehogs.

Coming up on the city of Slovyansk, we pull over to put on our vests, though it’s quiet as we cut through the south of the city to take an empty road to our destination, a village 15 kilometers southeast that I’ve been told not to reveal for operational security reasons. Smoke rises in the distance from the town of Siversk, in a contested area where there’s been shelling back and forth. After 10 minutes or so when we pass only one other car, we pull onto a pockmarked dirt road to enter the village, passing small farms and houses on each side until we turn into the parking lot of an empty secondary school where the unit we’re meeting has set up.

The city these men are tasked with protecting, Slovyansk, was the first city captured in April of 2014 and served as a focal point for their forces. Gun battles and routine shelling occurred over the following months until Ukrainian forces were able to rally and take back the city in July of that year. Then-president of Ukraine Petro Poroschenko called it a victory of “huge symbolic importance.” Foreshadowing the current atrocities in places like Bucha, Ukrainian investigators would later discover the bodies of executed civilians in mass graves in the city.

“A lot of good people died here, for no fucking reason,” Ihor says about the last eight years of war here.

War has again come to Slovyansk. Already, hundreds of thousands of people have fled the city, as well as nearby Kramatorsk and the surrounding villages. Defense analysts have said that Russia’s success in taking the entirety of the Donbas region falls on the defense of Slovyansk. According to the Institute for the Study of War, “If Russian forces are unable to take Slovyansk at all, Russian frontal assaults in Donbas are unlikely to independently breakthrough Ukrainian defenses and Russia’s campaign to capture the entirety of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts will likely fail.”

A few dozen men and a few women linger about in various states of camouflage fatigues as we hop out of the car and start unloading the vans. Artillery thumps in the distance constantly, but the fighters appear unconcerned. One tells me there are Grad rockets around 15 kilometers away. Most are excited to see what we’ve brought for them. The big bags of cigarettes are snatched up quickly, as are the Easter sweets and sausages. Ihor directs the packages among them, greeting everyone and shaking hands. The thermal optics and vests also receive a lot of nods of approval and handshakes.

Ihor hugs his cousin, who he soon introduces me to. Andrei Haletsky has been stationed here since March 5. He had been in the army when he was 18, but was a 45-year-old construction worker when he was drafted and came back to help lead this unit. The unit itself is a bit of a motley crew, comprised of volunteer fighters whose ages span decades. They look a bit rough, but Andrei says the situation is good. “The volunteer deliveries help a lot, with the food there’s no problem,” he says. Being volunteer units, though, they don’t have access to the same material as the regular military units. They need more vests, they need more optics.

Andrei doesn’t offer much else in the conversation, except to say that the shelling has started increasing, especially in the last two weeks.

I’m also introduced to Vita, a 31-year-old commander with dyed red hair who is one of the few females among the group. She’d signed a one-year contract prior to the breakout of the full scale invasion despite the concern of her parents. “They’re worried, but they’re used to it,”she says. “My mother will never be happy but she honors my choice.”

Vita’s partner is serving with her, and he joins the conversation. Regrettably, they had to celebrate her birthday together under fire. “What can you say, my birthday was the 26th of February. We were in the army on the 24th and already moving the weapons that day. What can you do?” she says, laughing.

How does she hope to celebrate her birthday next year? Her boyfriend answers. “We are planning on going to Egypt on the beach. But most likely now we are going to Crimea,” he says with a smile, referring to the Ukrainian peninsula, known for its seaside resorts, that Russia has now occupied for eight years and claimed as annexed territory.

As the vans empty out, Ihor asks some of the men what other supplies they need. More optics, more vests with plates, a drone with thermal vision, tablets to help with targeting. A short while later, we’re back in the empty vans for the lengthy drive back west, handing out extra tourniquets and bandages at checkpoints. Three hours into the drive, we see two Russian fighter jets streak across the skies, either heading to a bombing run or returning from one. In the coming days, many of the cities along our route will face increased shelling.

Back in the van, Ihor turns to me and says, “You like the trip, dude?” I ask him how it felt to see his cousin. For the first time, I see him grow visibly concerned. “He’s right in the center of all the shit going on there,” he says. Ihor’s feeling a little sick, having picked up a hacking cough, and we’ve barely started the 20-hour drive back to Lviv. He’s got a shipment of vests coming in soon, and in 10 days he’ll make the 40-hour round trip drive again, bearing more supplies. He hopes he’ll be able to see his cousin again.

Inside the Fearless Volunteer Convoy Supplying Ukrainian Fighters With Everything From Body Armor to Cigarettes


----------



## Skysix




----------



## NavyShooter




----------



## Kirkhill

It sounds like the Swedes are already family @daftandbarmy.



> “We’re so close, we’re practically members already,” The Telegraph was told by *Peter Hultqvist, Sweden's defence minister*, in Belvoir Castle, Leicestershire, recently.
> 
> He spoke with a twinkle in his eye but *with mud on his trousers, the result of being dropped off in the wrong field by the RAF helicopter* that had brought him to the meeting of European defence ministers.
> 
> Would Nato membership by Sweden and Finland ensure such incidents do not happen again? Maybe not, but they will certainly give Putin pause for thought.






> Finland and Sweden joining Nato shows just how terribly Vladimir Putin has miscalculated​Russia’s ‘strategic genius’ in Europe set to evaporate as Ukraine war pushes Nordic states closer to the West
> 
> ByDominic Nicholls, DEFENCE AND SECURITY EDITOR ; Joe Barnes, BRUSSELS CORRESPONDENT and JohnJo Devlin IN HELSINKI11 May 2022 • 9:00pm
> 
> 
> 
> Vladimir Putin likes to portray Russia’s existence as an ongoing struggle against a malevolent and expansionist Nato.
> Part of the Russian president’s justification for the latest assault on Ukraine was to push Nato further from Russia’s borders.
> He has badly miscalculated.
> That he convinced himself Western nations would not come to Ukraine’s aid for the simple reason it does not enjoy the protections of Article 5 shows the Alice in Wonderland nature of his perception of geopolitical reality.
> Far from abandoning Ukraine or allowing healthy differences of opinion to become fractures between partner nations, the West - and Nato - has stuck by a friend in need.
> If that has frustrated Putin, wait until he sees the anticipated next big shift in Europe’s security architecture - courtesy of Sweden and Finland’s likely application for Nato membership.
> 
> Both countries are expected to attend Nato’s June summit in Madrid as “invitees”, giving the two Nordic states observer status in all discussions, bar those on nuclear capabilities.
> Advertisement
> 
> All 30 members of the alliance are understood to be supportive of their expected membership requests, which, for Helsinki, could come as soon as next week.
> While they would not become full members for between six to eight months because of national ratification processes, they would be treated as if they were.
> Without mentioning Article 5 by name, Boris Johnson - visiting both countries on Wednesday - effectively said both Sweden and Finland would enjoy Nato’s collective defence mechanism as soon as they applied.
> 
> Nato officials believe it is very unlikely the Kremlin will follow through on threats to strike both territories if they join the alliance.
> When The Telegraph visited Finland last week with Ben Wallace, the Defence Secretary was asked about a possible Russian attack following an application for Nato membership.
> “With what?” he shrugged, pointing out Russia has lost an estimated 16 per cent of its entire land forces in Putin’s reckless adventure in Ukraine.
> 
> Sauli Niinisto, the Finnish president, is highly anticipated to back the bid - which moved a step closer on Wednesday after the Finnish Parliamentary Defence Committee recommended that the government joins the alliance.
> Should Finland and Sweden become Nato members, it will mark the most significant geopolitical realignment in the Nordics for a generation.
> “Politically, it’s huge,” Pekka Toveri, former chief of intelligence for the Finnish defence forces, told The Telegraph.
> “The Baltic sea will become an inner lake of Nato, where the Russian navy has no ability to operate, except underwater.
> “I think some in the Kremlin will wonder what the hell is happening. Russia had a geostrategic situation in central eastern Europe that was very beneficial. They had Belarus in their pocket, a part of Ukraine in their pocket.
> “Then this ‘strategic genius’ turns the tables and they’ve lost northern Europe entirely.
> “Now there’s no way in hell they can protect Kola and St Petersburg if there is a war with Nato.”
> The Kola Peninsula, in Russia’s extreme north-west, is home to the Northern Fleet.
> Submarines and surface vessels attempting to break out into the Atlantic will be extremely vulnerable in the event of hostilities with Nato should Sweden and Finland join the alliance.
> 
> Their proposed bids looked unlikely just weeks prior to the outbreak of war on Feb 24.
> “Polls since the late 90s have been remarkably consistent [with] 60 to 70 per cent of people against Nato membership, even after Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea,” said Charly Salonius-Pasternak, lead researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.
> “Now around 65 per cent of people support it.”
> That will climb even higher if the Finnish leadership comes out in favour of applying, he expects.
> Despite the dark legacy of the Winter War of 1940, the Finns have maintained close cultural and economic ties with Russia for decades.
> However, the conflict in Ukraine has pushed a historically fraught relationship to a tipping point, according to Tanja Jääskeläinen, deputy director-general of the Finnish Foreign Ministry.
> “It is clear that the invasion has really affected the relationship between our two countries,” she said, adding: “But we must make an effort to maintain channels for cooperation on migration issues, crime prevention, transport [and] security of supply within the sanctions.”
> Finland has been lauded for its military preparedness, and has been planning for a conflict long before the fall of the Soviet Union.
> National conscription is still mandatory for all men. The country boasts approximately 900,0000 reservists, from a population of only 5.5 million.
> Sweden similarly fields an impressive military, especially in its submarine force and intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) aircraft.
> 
> Clearly visible on flight tracker websites, Sweden’s ISR planes are regularly seen patrolling the edges of Ukraine and Kaliningrad, the Russian exclave sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland.
> Comparable Nato assets, particularly the RQ-4 Global Hawk drone flown by the US Air Force, are often found doing laps in the same small chunks of airspace.
> That the Swedes and Nato have been able to avoid an incident in the skies is impressive and nods to cooperation. Perhaps even coordination?
> “We’re so close, we’re practically members already,” The Telegraph was told by Peter Hultqvist, Sweden's defence minister, in Belvoir Castle, Leicestershire, recently.
> He spoke with a twinkle in his eye but with mud on his trousers, the result of being dropped off in the wrong field by the RAF helicopter that had brought him to the meeting of European defence ministers.
> Would Nato membership by Sweden and Finland ensure such incidents do not happen again? Maybe not, but they will certainly give Putin pause for thought.











						Finland and Sweden joining Nato shows just how terribly Vladimir Putin has miscalculated
					

Russia’s ‘strategic genius’ in Europe set to evaporate as Ukraine war pushes Nordic states closer to the West




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## Kirkhill

> Boris Johnson: UK ‘would help Nordic nations fight the Russians’​Prime Minister says he would send British troops to Finland or Sweden to repel an invasion as he signs defence pact
> 
> ByJames Crisp, EUROPE EDITOR and JohnJo Devlin IN HELSINKI11 May 2022 • 9:45pm
> 
> *British soldiers would be sent to defend Sweden and Finland from Russian invasion*, Boris Johnson said on Wednesday as he sealed mutual defence pacts with the Nordic nations to strengthen opposition to Vladimir Putin.
> *The Prime Minister suggested troops could be sent even if the two countries did not join Nato* as he gave his public support for expanding the military alliance to further contain Russia.
> The defence pacts, signed during Mr Johnson's visit to both countries on Wednesday, are a warning shot to Moscow in case it is tempted to invade Sweden and Finland before they are expected to join Nato.
> Both have sent weapons and aid to Ukraine, but are not currently Nato members and not covered by the alliance's Article Five, which says that an attack on one member country is an attack on all.
> "We have been forced to discuss how best to fortify our shared defences against the empty conceit of a 21st-century tyrant," said Mr Johnson, who has also offered to deploy more British air, land and sea forces in the region, which borders Russia.
> 
> Asked during a press conference alongside Sauli Niinisto, Finnish president, whether there would be "British boots on the ground" during a possible conflict with Russia, he said: "Yes, we will come to each other's assistance, including with military assistance."
> 
> 
> Mr Niinisto told Putin to "look in the mirror" if he wondered why Finland might join Nato. "You caused this," he said.
> The Finnish president is expected to approve his country's NATO application on Thursday.
> Sweden has been non-aligned for more than 200 years, while Finland became neutral after its invasion by the Soviet Union in the Second World War. Both are said to be considering formal application to join Nato and, if they do, are expected to join together in a relatively short accession process.
> Their accession would strengthen Nato's position with Russia. The Telegraph understands that Nato leaders are drawing up a 10-year plan with a Cold War-style policy of "containment" of Russia at its heart.
> *Finland and Sweden have modern, well-equipped armies, and Sweden has one of the largest and best air forces in Western Europe. Five per cent of GDP*,  (Note the price of Neutrality - Kirkhill)  higher than Nato defence spending targets, is spent every year to equip and maintain the armed forces.
> *National conscription is still mandatory for all males in Finland, which boasts approximately 900,0000 reservists and a powerful navy in a country of only 5.5 million.* It has an 810-mile border with Russia that could stretch Russian deployments.
> 
> The pacts were signed as Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, said Ukraine would feel the aftermath of Russia's war "for 100 years" because of unexploded bombs littering cities.
> Kyiv said Russian troops were forced to retreat behind their own borders after Ukrainian counter-attacks against Moscow's advance in the east – a further setback for Putin's forces.
> Meanwhile, collaborators in Kherson will ask Putin to annex the southern region, and Russia's defence ministry made wild accusations that Joe Biden, the US president, had overseen military biological testing in Ukraine.
> *Asked whether the new security pacts meant the UK would use its nuclear weapons to defend Sweden, Mr Johnson said: "That's something we don't generally comment upon. But what I made clear is that it's up to either party to make a request, and we take it very seriously.
> "What we are saying emphatically is that, in the event of an attack upon Sweden, the UK would come to the assistance of Sweden with whatever Sweden requested."*
> Magdalena Andersson, the Swedish prime minister, said: "President Putin thought he could cause division, but he has achieved the opposite."
> Earlier, Mr Johnson had rowed her to a press conference at her official retreat in Harpsund and told her: "We are literally and metaphorically in the same boat."
> 
> *The defence pacts mean that joint military training and exercises and deployments will be stepped up, intelligence sharing intensified and defences against cyber attacks bolstered.*
> A Downing Street spokesman said the Swedish and British leaders "underlined that relations with Putin could never be normalised".
> Before the February invasion of Ukraine, Putin had demanded assurances that neither country would join Nato.
> Finnish support for joining rocketed to a record high of 76 per cent – after years of being around 20 to 25 per cent – following the invasion of Ukraine. In Sweden, 57 per cent now want to join, also a historic shift.
> Mr Johnson said both countries should be free to join if they wished without fear of Russian retaliation, adding: "We will be as useful and support [applications] as we can."
> Pekka Toveri, a former chief of intelligence for the Finnish defence forces, told The Telegraph: "We just want to be left in peace – but if you f------ come over the border, you will pay the price."
> Janne Kuusela, the director general of the Finnish ministry of defence, said: "We can deal with whatever Russia chooses to throw at our face. Finland is indivisible. We will fight until the very last Finn."











						Boris Johnson: UK ‘would help Nordic nations fight the Russians’
					

Prime Minister says he would send British troops to Finland or Sweden to repel an invasion as he signs defence pact




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524625525930663937


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## The Bread Guy

Interesting if true - from the UKR mil int info-machine (Google translation - original in Ukrainian)
Russia cannot fully restore the combat capability of military units withdrawn from Ukraine​             May 12, 2022



 

The consequence of economic sanctions imposed by the world's leading powers on the aggressor country is a significant decline in the military-industrial complex of Russia.

Having lost a significant part of their military and technical potential during the war in Ukraine, the Russians are already forced to supply 50-60 years of production and equipment to units that have suffered irreparable losses.

However, this situation does not embarrass the Kremlin leadership, it does not care how much and on what to send "cannon fodder" in the fight for the future of the "Russian world". There will always be something that has been rusting for decades in warehouses and that even third world countries did not want to buy at the time.

Most of the long-term storage warehouses cannot even be delivered to the units. However, the military is forced to accept it and report to the command on the full staffing and provision of combat units.

During April, the following were removed from the storage bases of the Russian Federation:               

18 ACS "Msta-C" from the arsenal of missile and artillery weapons of the Eastern All-Ukrainian Union (Ussuriysk, Primorsky Krai);               
28 Acacia ACS from the 94th arsenal of the GRAU (Omsk);               
15 ACS “Msta-S”, 5 ACS “Acacia” and 20 ACS “Carnation” (Gvozdika) from the arsenal of complex storage of RAW (Gagarinsky, Sverdlovsk region);
15 MLRS "Hurricane" (Urugan) and 11 TRK "Point-U" (Tochka-U) from the 109th arsenal of GRAU (Battery, Irkutsk region).               
Restoration of combat capability and manning of troops of the Western All-Ukrainian Union is carried out, inter alia, at the expense of armaments and military equipment removed from storage of 239 mobilization deployment centers (Boguchar).

Now the rusty and rotten military-technical echo of the Kremlin's "great past" is becoming the basis of Russia's "present."


----------



## TacticalTea

Sanna Marin and the President of Finland on NATO accession:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524645891449270273


----------



## CBH99

Skysix said:


> Not to mention "do you have any drugs or weapons that you wish to declare"


Do they even bother asking that in Russia? 🤷🏼‍♂️



Underway said:


> I just had the thought of a sleepy Russian customs agent completely oblivious to everything.
> 
> John Deer tractor pulls up towing a tank back to Russia
> 
> "You have anything to declare?  How long have you been in Ukraine?"


Just realized this now, for some reason my brain lit up with it while cleaning my bathroom.

Negative on our imaginary scenario.  

John Deer seems to have the final say as to whether or not their tractors start…


----------



## The Bread Guy

TacticalTea said:


> Sanna Marin and the President of Finland on NATO accession:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524645891449270273


Those who know, know ...








						Finnish Veterans Who Fought Russian Invasion Support NATO Membership
					

Soviet forces invaded Finland in 1939 in the so-called Winter War – but Finnish defenders resisted occupation




					www.voanews.com


----------



## OldSolduer

CBH99 said:


> Do they even bother asking that in Russia? 🤷🏼‍♂️
> 
> 
> Just realized this now, for some reason my brain lit up with it while cleaning my bathroom.
> 
> Negative on our imaginary scenario.
> 
> John Deer seems to have the final say as to whether or not their tractors start…



It’s “Deere”. 

I’m a tad ocd on this sort of stuff


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## Haggis

I hope a Ukrainian studio remakes "Gone in Sixty Seconds" but with tanks and tractors.


----------



## CBH99

Best idea I’ve heard in ages!


----------



## Underway

OldSolduer said:


> It’s “Deere”.
> 
> I’m a tad ocd on this sort of stuff


Um actually... that was the Ukrainian spelling!


----------



## Weinie

Underway said:


> Um actually... that was the Ukrainian spelling!


They seem to drop “e”s.


----------



## OldSolduer

Underway said:


> Um actually... that was the Ukrainian spelling!


Ok their way but I prefer “Deere” lol


----------



## Good2Golf

Isn’t it Jdzon Dyr?


----------



## Gunnar

Needs to be in Cyrillic....


----------



## MilEME09

Final count appears to be in on the failed bridge crossing, and its a doozy


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524742847664173057


----------



## Good2Golf

Gunnar said:


> Needs to be in Cyrillic....


Haven’t loaded that keyboard yet, but yup! 😉


----------



## Skysix

Haggis said:


> I hope a Ukrainian studio remakes "Gone in Sixty Seconds" but with tanks and tractors.


As the crime boss comes in with an order sheet for 3 T72B3M, 2 Grads, A T80, 5 BTR2 and a T14. Wonder what Eleanor (in Ukrainian) would be.... But please, no Nicholas Cage


----------



## daftandbarmy

Good idea....


Commander In Ukraine Wants Quiet Electric Bikes For His Sniper Teams​

The Atom Military electric motorbike is small, light, fast and, perhaps just as importantly, whisper-quiet. And Mamuka Mamulashvili, commander of the Georgian Legion, wants them for his sniper teams.

“We have to go and leave fast,” Mamulashvili told The War Zone Wednesday morning. “So we need electro bikes.”

Ukrainian forces too hope this unassuming, homegrown vehicle will help it continue to defend against Russian invaders.

Built by a company called ELEEK in Ternopil, the Atom Military has a top speed of 90 kph, can travel up to 150 km on one five-hour charge and can carry up to 150 kg, according to the company. They have a motorcycle suspension, brakes and wheels “which allow them to be durable on the off-road.”

They even come with an optional USB for charging gadgets and a 220V socket so that additional heavy, bulky batteries aren’t needed.

“They have already managed to visit the hot spots, helping their owners successfully perform their tasks,” the company says on its Facebook page.





__





						Account Suspended
					





					www.doynikbatra24.com


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## QV

daftandbarmy said:


> Good idea....
> 
> 
> Commander In Ukraine Wants Quiet Electric Bikes For His Sniper Teams​
> 
> The Atom Military electric motorbike is small, light, fast and, perhaps just as importantly, whisper-quiet. And Mamuka Mamulashvili, commander of the Georgian Legion, wants them for his sniper teams.
> 
> “We have to go and leave fast,” Mamulashvili told The War Zone Wednesday morning. “So we need electro bikes.”
> 
> Ukrainian forces too hope this unassuming, homegrown vehicle will help it continue to defend against Russian invaders.
> 
> Built by a company called ELEEK in Ternopil, the Atom Military has a top speed of 90 kph, can travel up to 150 km on one five-hour charge and can carry up to 150 kg, according to the company. They have a motorcycle suspension, brakes and wheels “which allow them to be durable on the off-road.”
> 
> They even come with an optional USB for charging gadgets and a 220V socket so that additional heavy, bulky batteries aren’t needed.
> 
> “They have already managed to visit the hot spots, helping their owners successfully perform their tasks,” the company says on its Facebook page.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Account Suspended
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.doynikbatra24.com



Only war can unlock this kind of outside the box thinking. In peacetime Canada ideas like this are laughed off.


----------



## Brad Sallows

Risk of death focuses the mind.


----------



## Prairie canuck

Unconfirmed by outside sources but the Kyiv Independent is reporting that Ukraine is once again taking advantage of the Russian stubbornness regarding Snake Island. Russia sent a salvage/offshore supply boat to the island and the Ukrainian navy promptly set it on fire. It is returning to Sevastopol.
Завдяки діям ЗСУ в Чорному морі загорілося ще одне військове судно росії — Одеська ОВА | Громадське телебачення


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## The Bread Guy

Weinie said:


> They seem to drop “e”s.


I think they' trend to go more phonetic with no-direct-translation in their version of Cyrillic.


----------



## Weinie

The Bread Guy said:


> I think they' trend to go more phonetic with no-direct-translation in their version of Cyrillic.


Kiev nyet, Kyiv da.


----------



## Kirkhill

A Reddit Roundup.


More of Vlad's dissatisfied customers.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uo40c5
Curious how easy it is to prevent 18 year old consripts and 60 year old tanks from getting to Ukraine.


And Brimstone's in ground launched service in Ukraine (video)


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uo40xc
Where'd they go?

Visual comparison of M777 range with M795E1 rounds and Russian artillery


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uo1rpr

More Territorials - this time with a newly captured T-80BV


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uo8mvq

Ukrainian Infantry-Tank Co-Operation Training


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/unzy9y

Where are the Russians?


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/unxm0h

And a bit more on that attempted Pontoon Crossing - the Russian unit identified as the 74th MRB

r/ukraine - "The 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces (military unit 21005) ... suffered immense losses after falling into a trap ... they abandoned their equipment and swam back across the river ... this is the 4th day of their crossing attempts"

Belgorod waking up to the fact there is a war on - now that the Ukrainians are sitting on their border.

r/ukraine - Russia to fortify border with Ukraine amidst fear of shelling

And Gerasimov suspended 

r/ukraine - Walery Gerasimow suspended amid heavy battlefield losses


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukrainians in M113s - That familiarization didn't seem to take long. Although from the interior signage they seem to have been supplied from the Dutch stocks.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uoa49t


And more on the DIY Warfare front


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uo6wzn


Meanwhile the Poles are supplying 5.56 rifles.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/unwigs


The Russians can't keep up with demand - 









						Russia failing to restore combat capability of units withdrawn from Ukraine - intel
					

Due to the significant decline of the Russian defense industry as a result of sanctions imposed, Russia is unable to fully restore the combat capability of military units withdrawn from Ukraine. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## suffolkowner

Kirkhill said:


> Visual comparison of M777 range with M795E1 rounds and Russian artillery
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uo1rpr


Is the short range of Russian 152mm artillery primarily due to short barrels?


Kirkhill said:


> Ukrainians in M113s - That familiarization didn't seem to take long. Although from the interior signage they seem to have been supplied from the Dutch stocks.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uoa49t



Are our M113's of no use? Worn out?


----------



## Kirkhill

If at first you don't succeed, try, try, try again?


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uo5qys


----------



## Kirkhill

suffolkowner said:


> Is the short range of Russian 152mm artillery primarily due to short barrels?



I'm sure there is at least one gunner around here that could answer that.  



suffolkowner said:


> Are our M113's of no use? Worn out?



We experience them differently.


----------



## Kirkhill

And still more DIY warfare



__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uny20h









						UA DYNAMICS created the concept of a reusable airstrike drone PUNISHER · Techukraine
					

Ukrainian tech team of Russian-Ukrainian War veterans UA DYNAMICS created the concept of a reusable airstrike drone PUNISHER to conduct special reconnaissance and implement tactics of raids on important military facilities with enhanced protection in the deep rear of the enemy. PUNISHER – is a...




					techukraine.org
				









> PUNISHER – is a high-precision alternative to long-range artillery or missile weapons for the destruction of enemy targets at distances of 25 / 30 / 35 / 40 / 45 km. The complex allows to destroy targets from the “first shot”. Has a predicted localization of impact. Due to its characteristics, it minimizes the risk of possible losses among non-combatants.


----------



## Underway

QV said:


> Only war can unlock this kind of outside the box thinking. In peacetime Canada ideas like this are laughed off.


Apparently, you haven't heard of the stealth snowmobile.  Which was made fun of in the press but was still an experimental project.



suffolkowner said:


> Are our M113's of no use? Worn out?


Our M113's have all been converted to take an extra road wheel, and new engines (some with the old Grizzly turret) and are now relabeled as T-LAV's.  They are not common anymore with other M113s that are out there and would be an orphan fleet with the Ukranian's.

Whether they should be sent or not I'll leave up to you to debate, I'm just pointing out what's going on with them.


----------



## McG

Underway said:


> Our M113's have all been converted to take an extra road wheel, and new engines (some with the old Grizzly turret) and are now relabeled as T-LAV's.


The TLAV have the same hull and number of road wheels as original M113. You are thinking of the MTVL & variants. We have both TLAV & MTVL. But you are correct that we gave them new powerpacks. I believe the engine is the same as the Bison and mated to a different transmission.


----------



## daftandbarmy

McG said:


> The TLAV have the same hull and number of road wheels as original M113. You are thinking of the MTVL & variants. We have both TLAV & MTVL. But you are correct that we gave them new powerpacks. I believe the engine is the same as the Bison and mated to a different transmission.



And we aren't giving them the TAPV because we don't want them to declare war on Canada, right?


----------



## McG

Kirkhill said:


> Visual comparison of M777 range with M795E1 rounds and Russian artillery


So, that is inaccurate. Russian artillery can out range the little red bubble in that picture. It might reflect a particular weapon system, but it does not reflect the max range of all Russian artillery.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

McG said:


> So, that is inaccurate. Russian artillery can out range the little red bubble in that picture. It might reflect a particular weapon system, but it does not reflect the max range of all Russian artillery.


The question becomes what do they have left to field that hasn't been destroyed, disabled, run out of munitions/missiles, or taken as a lawn ornament by an enterprising Ukranian farmer?


----------



## KevinB

rmc_wannabe said:


> The question becomes what do they have left to field that hasn't been destroyed, disabled, run out of munitions/missiles, or taken as a lawn ornament by an enterprising Ukranian farmer?


A metric butt ton…
   There is shit in Siberia from the 60’s

Sure it’s literally shit - but they have massive stockpiles of rainy day gear.

Edit; also Western Nations generally understate weapon/system capabilities, most open source released data is 2/3 or less the actual capability, while Russian pride likes to overstate theirs.


----------



## KevinB

McG said:


> So, that is inaccurate. Russian artillery can out range the little red bubble in that picture. It might reflect a particular weapon system, but it does not reflect the max range of all Russian artillery.


It also doesn’t reflect most of the 777’s are 777A2 not the ‘short barrel’ early 777, so the 30km range is a vast understatement, with 60km+ ranges are achieved with the A2 including OS moving target hits at 60km with PGM and RAP.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> A metric butt ton…
> There is shit in Siberia from the 60’s
> 
> Sure it’s literally shit - but they have massive stockpiles of rainy day gear.
> 
> Edit; also Western Nations generally understate weapon/system capabilities, most open source released data is 2/3 or less the actual capability, while Russian pride likes to overstate theirs.


This is true, however, with the rate that their rail system is being sabotaged, getting to the front is another story all together. 

Siberia to Kharkiv is a long haul. Even if it's crap, they might not be able to get it to the fight before they run out of crews to man said crap.


----------



## KevinB

rmc_wannabe said:


> This is true, however, with the rate that their rail system is being sabotaged, getting to the front is another story all together.
> 
> Siberia to Kharkiv is a long haul. Even if it's crap, they might not be able to get it to the fight before they run out of crews to man said crap.


Agreed - Russia has managed to become a washed up has been in the last 90 days.   That said a cornered rat is still very dangerous, even if they only think they are cornered.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Movin' the goal line - from RUS state media (yellow highlight mine) ...


----------



## WLSC

McG said:


> The TLAV have the same hull and number of road wheels as original M113. You are thinking of the MTVL & variants. We have both TLAV & MTVL. But you are correct that we gave them new powerpacks. I believe the engine is the same as the Bison and mated to a different transmission.


T-LAV had a 5 and 6 road wheels configurations.  Some with the 1 m turret (usualy the 5 road wheels) and some with a RWS (usualy the 6 road wheel) MTVL had other configurations usualy with RWS.

That being said, I use it alot and I really really liked it.  The engine sound... humm, devine 😇😁


----------



## YZT580

KevinB said:


> Agreed - Russia has managed to become a washed up has been in the last 90 days.   That said a cornered rat is still very dangerous, even if they only think they are cornered.


but if their military has been severely degraded does it mean that we don't have to upgrade at all?  Gives OW an excuse for not increasing the budget.  Just saying......


----------



## McG

WLSC said:


> T-LAV had a 5 and 6 road wheels configurations.


TLAV was the 5 wheel configuration.
MTVL was the 6 wheel configuration.
All the 6 wheel variants also started with “MT” - MTVR, MTVF, MTFV.


----------



## Kirkhill

Not much in the way of action in this video but the after action report gives some insight into the way things are done.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uoc0d0


----------



## Kirkhill

WLSC said:


> T-LAV had a 5 and 6 road wheels configurations.  Some with the 1 m turret (usualy the 5 road wheels) and some with a RWS (usualy the 6 road wheel) MTVL had other configurations usualy with RWS.
> 
> That being said, I use it alot and I really really liked it.  The engine sound... humm, devine 😇😁



Where are they now?


----------



## Underway

McG said:


> TLAV was the 5 wheel configuration.
> MTVL was the 6 wheel configuration.
> All the 6 wheel variants also started with “MT” - MTVR, MTVF, MTFV.


I just called them all TLAV in Afghanistan.  I didn't realize at the time there were still 5 wheeled configs as I didn't work with them very often.


----------



## McG

Some TLAV & MTVL are still in use. Many are collecting dust on the self-divesting vehicle graveyards.


----------



## FJAG

suffolkowner said:


> Is the short range of Russian 152mm artillery primarily due to short barrels?


Not really.  The various Msta 152mm barrels come in version running from L42 to L47 to L52 to L60 barrels with reported ranges of 25kms to 30 kms for a standard projectile and 40 with a RAP (and I've seen some Russian claims to 80kms with that barrel which I doubt).

By contrast the M109 155mm barrels initially came at L23 and extended to L39 with standard shell ranges of 14.5 kms to 22 kms and 30kms with RAP. There are also versions with an L47 barrel and the new M1299 is looking at an L58 with predictions of ranges to 70 kms with a RAP round.

So there are two points.

1. While barrel length clearly makes a difference, there are different versions with different barrel lengths through both Russian and Western inventories so simply saying "152mm" isn't sufficient. Some 152mm clearly aren't "short barrels". Some are longer than the barrels currently in-service in the West.

2. Barrel length isn't the only determinant. Propellants, chamber and stress capacities, projectile design, all play a part as well. The newer longer barrels need to be able to handle the stresses of the higher charges accompanying them.



KevinB said:


> It also doesn’t reflect most of the 777’s are 777A2 not the ‘short barrel’ early 777, so the 30km range is a vast understatement, with 60km+ ranges are achieved with the A2 including OS moving target hits at 60km with PGM and RAP.



I'm not quite sure this is accurate. Canada has M777s with L39 barrels. Australia got M777A2s but to my knowledge that too has the L39 barrel. Both work on a 22km with 30km RAP round. There is an experimental extended range M777A2ER with the L58 barrel (see below - running in parallel to the M1299 ERCA) that supposedly extends the reach to 70km with RAP. It's been around for a few years but I have not heard of the M777A2ER having gone beyond experimentation and into production to this point. BAE's M777 page still calls it a "future enhancement" and speaks of an L55 barrel rather than the L58.







🍻


----------



## WLSC

McG said:


> TLAV was the 5 wheel configuration.
> MTVL was the 6 wheel configuration.
> All the 6 wheel variants also started with “MT” - MTVR, MTVF, MTFV.


MTLV were not the « pick-up » version with a bed in the back and TLAV troop carrier?


----------



## McG

The “pick-up” was the MTVF. It was a fitter with a bed to carry a powerpack and a crane to do the pack swap. There was supposed to have been an MTVC which would have been just the pick-up bed without a crane, but I don’t know if any were ever delivered.  MTVL itself was a plain stretched section carrier.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Interesting... strength through no red tape!


Why Ukraine's Artillery is So Effective vs. Russia​
FNN Host @RonnieFit breaks down a few reasons that have been raised on why Ukraine has been so effective with artillery, and why Russia is having a hard time stopping it. Portions of this video are unconfirmed, such as the use of the "GIS Art for Artillery" software. We will update this video/description if necessary.


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524979878654840833


----------



## WLSC

McG said:


> The “pick-up” was the MTVF. It was a fitter with a bed to carry a powerpack and a crane to do the pack swap. There was supposed to have been an MTVC which would have been just the pick-up bed without a crane, but I don’t know if any were ever delivered.  MTVL itself was a plain stretched section carrier.


I stand deconfused then!  Thanks


----------



## The Bread Guy

Weinie said:


> Kiev nyet, Kyiv da.


Yup - on the Pres info-machine's site, they spell "Trudeau" Трюдо, which would be pronounced more like "Tr-you-do".


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> Published footage of the army evacuators BREM-1 in Ukraine. The video shows the evacuation of the damaged T-72B3 tank from the battlefield. In the current conditions, the repair of military equipment in Ukraine is carried out in an aggregate way. The main task is to restore and return equipment to the front as quickly as possible.


 
@Soldier35  Perhaps Russia should try the much more effective *Джон Дуур *ARV?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> @Soldier35  Perhaps Russia should try the much more effective *Джон Дуур *ARV?
> 
> View attachment 70723


Beat me to it - was going to offer up that he spelled "tractor" wrong


----------



## McG

An option to fight the disinformation that causes some Russian citizens to keep backing the war.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525078993313087491


----------



## RaceAddict

Hey @Soldier35 tell us about how great Russian GPS is...





__





						Downed Russian fighter jets are being found with basic GPS 'taped to the dashboards,' UK defense minister says
					





					www.msn.com


----------



## TacticalTea

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524675550152904704

Daily reminder that what we are doing is far from enough. (And, incidentally, that Rand Paul is detestable as can be)

Also apparently the Russians tried to cross in the same spot again, got blown up again.


----------



## SupersonicMax

RaceAddict said:


> Hey @Soldier35 tell us about how great Russian GPS is...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Downed Russian fighter jets are being found with basic GPS 'taped to the dashboards,' UK defense minister says
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.msn.com


To be fair, it’s not far from how many of our fleets operated until recently.


----------



## KevinB

TacticalTea said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524675550152904704
> 
> Daily reminder that what we are doing is far from enough. (And, incidentally, that Rand Paul is detestable as can be)
> 
> Also apparently the Russians tried to cross in the same spot again, got blown up again.


Rand Paul is a prime example of why most people should not be eligible to vote.  
   I really wonder if he and his Ilk must just want the Republican Party to burn.  He’s been a fuckstick for ages and still gets elected, and makes Republicans look like assclowns.


----------



## Kirkhill

FJAG said:


> Not really.  The various Msta 152mm barrels come in version running from L42 to L47 to L52 to L60 barrels with reported ranges of 25kms to 30 kms for a standard projectile and 40 with a RAP (and I've seen some Russian claims to 80kms with that barrel which I doubt).
> 
> By contrast the M109 155mm barrels initially came at L23 and extended to L39 with standard shell ranges of 14.5 kms to 22 kms and 30kms with RAP. There are also versions with an L47 barrel and the new M1299 is looking at an L58 with predictions of ranges to 70 kms with a RAP round.
> 
> So there are two points.
> 
> 1. While barrel length clearly makes a difference, there are different versions with different barrel lengths through both Russian and Western inventories so simply saying "152mm" isn't sufficient. Some 152mm clearly aren't "short barrels". Some are longer than the barrels currently in-service in the West.
> 
> 2. Barrel length isn't the only determinant. Propellants, chamber and stress capacities, projectile design, all play a part as well. The newer longer barrels need to be able to handle the stresses of the higher charges accompanying them.
> 
> 
> 
> I'm not quite sure this is accurate. Canada has M777s with L39 barrels. Australia got M777A2s but to my knowledge that too has the L39 barrel. Both work on a 22km with 30km RAP round. There is an experimental extended range M777A2ER with the L58 barrel (see below - running in parallel to the M1299 ERCA) that supposedly extends the reach to 70km with RAP. It's been around for a few years but I have not heard of the M777A2ER having gone beyond experimentation and into production to this point. BAE's M777 page still calls it a "future enhancement" and speaks of an L55 barrel rather than the L58.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 🍻




Another bit of the calculus, surely, is the Precision Guidance Kit?

My understanding was that the RAP projectiles extended range but at the expense of accuracy.  And the even conventional and base bleed rounds became less accurate at longer ranges.  Is it right to compare  RAP ranges at all,?

Unless the RAP round has a PGK to compensate for the targeting and reduce the CEP.  

Re the howitzer, Wiki sez:


*M777* – gun with optical fire control[_citation needed_]
*M777A1* – digitization upgrades with the addition of an onboard power source, satellite global positioning, inertial navigation, radio, Gun Display Unit (GDU) and Section Chief Assembly (SCA).[_citation needed_]
*M777A2* – Block 1A software upgrade. Addition of an Enhanced Portable Inductive Artillery Fuze Setter (EPIAFS) to enable Excalibur and precision munition compatibility.[23][24]
*M777ER* – Upgrade created by the Extended Range Cannon Artillery (ERCA) project to extend range from 30 to 70 km (19 to 43 mi).[25] Modified with a longer 58-caliber, 9.1 m (30 ft) barrel and supercharged propellant firing the XM1113 rocket-assisted projectile.[26]
Re the bullet,

M107 HE Projectile
M795  HE Projectile
M549A1 HE Rocket Assisted Projectile
M795E1 Extended Range HE Base Burner Projectile

And the "fuzing"

M107 with M1156 Precision Guidance Kit (Course Correcting Fuze)
M795 with M1156 Precision Guidance Kit (Course Correcting Fuze)
M549A1 with M1156 Precision Guidance Kit (Course Correcting Fuze)
M795E1 with M1156 Precision Guidance Kit (Course Correcting Fuze)

M982 Excalibur










						US Army 'Dumb' 155mm Rounds Get Smart
					

The US Army has awarded Orbital ATK with a $120 million contract modification to make kits that turn conventional 155mm artillery into a near-precision shell.




					www.defensenews.com
				





Range is a many splendoured thing.  Gunners know stuff.


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> *M777* – gun with optical fire control[_citation needed_]
> *M777A1* – digitization upgrades with the addition of an onboard power source, satellite global positioning, inertial navigation, radio, Gun Display Unit (GDU) and Section Chief Assembly (SCA).[_citation needed_]
> *M777A2* – Block 1A software upgrade. Addition of an Enhanced Portable Inductive Artillery Fuze Setter (EPIAFS) to enable Excalibur and precision munition compatibility.[23][24]
> *M777ER* – Upgrade created by the Extended Range Cannon Artillery (ERCA) project to extend range from 30 to 70 km (19 to 43 mi).[25] Modified with a longer 58-caliber, 9.1 m (30 ft) barrel and supercharged propellant firing the XM1113 rocket-assisted projectile.[26]


Let's all keep in mind that the published range band isn't always the actual range band 
      Remember we told everyone Javelin was 4km max range


----------



## MilEME09

M777 in action


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525128173893074944


----------



## Quirky

SupersonicMax said:


> To be fair, it’s not far from how many of our fleets operated until recently.


This is correct. We’ve since upgraded to suction cup mounts.


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukrainian answer to why the interest in Snake Island









						Enemies deploy Pantsir, Tor-M2 missile systems on Zmiinyi Island – intel report
					

Ukrainian military intelligence has data on Russia's deployment of Pantsir air defense missile system and Tor-M2 surface-to-air missile system on Zmiinyi Island in the Black Sea, which are to secure Russia’s short-range air defense. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				






> a strategic object that will be used by Russia to control, in fact, the entire northwestern part of the Black Sea. And it is no coincidence that from the first days of the war, Russia captured the island and began to install the necessary equipment to monitor the air, surface and underwater situation near the island. And this, in fact, made it possible for Russia to gather more accurate intelligence data on the developments in this region,





> the ideological component of the island is also important for the Russians, because the enemy's ability to organize the air defense in this part of the sea declined after the Moskva missile cruiser had been destroyed.


----------



## Kirkhill

And the Ukrainians are settling in for the long haul.









						Ukraine entering long phase of war - Reznikov
					

Ukraine has forced Russia to reduce the scale of its targets to the operational and tactical level and is entering a long phase of the war. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Kirkhill

And at the Bilohorivka Crossing



> As noted, the enemy also tries to set pontoon crossings again to redeploy equipment and people across the Siversky Donets River near Bilohorivka. The invaders are constantly trying to erect a pontoon crossing at the same place, while the Armed Forces of Ukraine keep destroying it.
> 
> “More than 70 units of ruscist equipment have been burned there… Our guys destroy everything there, and they [invaders] build again. Maybe they want to make a crossing out of their smashed equipment as an option. I simply have no other explanation," said the Head of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration.











						Haidai: Invaders hurl all effort into breaking through line of defense in Luhansk region
					

In Luhansk region, the Russian invaders hurl all effort into breaking through the line of defense. They assault Rubizhne, Hirske community, the outskirts of Sievierodonetsk. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Blackadder1916

Not waiting to take action.  How long before the Russians retaliate?









						Ukraine begins first war crimes trial of Russian soldier
					

A Ukrainian court held a preliminary hearing on Friday in the first war crimes trial arising from Russia's Feb. 24 invasion, after charging a captured Russian soldier with the murder of a 62-year-old civilian.




					www.reuters.com
				





> Ukraine begins first war crimes trial of Russian soldier​KYIV, May 13 (Reuters) - A Ukrainian court held a preliminary hearing on Friday in the first war crimes trial arising from Russia's Feb. 24 invasion, after charging a captured Russian soldier with the murder of a 62-year-old civilian.
> 
> The case is of huge symbolic importance for Ukraine. The Kyiv government has accused Russia of atrocities and brutality against civilians during the invasion and said it has identified more than 10,000 possible war crimes.
> 
> Russia has denied targeting civilians or involvement in war crimes and accused Kyiv of staging them to smear its forces. The Kremlin told reporters on Friday that it had no information about a war crimes trial.
> 
> The defendant told the court he was Vadim Shishimarin, born in Russia's Irkutsk region, and confirmed that he was a Russian serviceman in a short, preliminary hearing. The court will reconvene on May 18, the judge said.
> 
> He will tell the court at a later date whether or not he denies the charge, his lawyer Viktor Ovsyannikov said.
> 
> Shaven headed and looking scared, Shishimarin wore a casual blue and grey hoodie and was led into the courtroom by police to a glass booth for defendants.
> 
> If convicted he faces up to life imprisonment over the killing in the northeast Ukrainian village of Chupakhivka, east of the capital Kyiv, on Feb. 28.
> 
> The Ukrainian prosecutor general's office said the defendant was a 21-year-old tank commander in the Kantemirovskaya tank division from the Moscow region. The prosecutor general had published a photograph of him ahead of the hearing.
> "(The) wheels of justice (have) started turning and this process will yield results," Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova wrote on Twitter on Friday.
> 
> UKRAINIAN ACCOUNT
> In a statement ahead of the hearing, the prosecutor general's office said the soldier and four other Russian servicemen fired at and stole a privately-owned car to escape after their column was targeted by Ukrainian forces.
> 
> The statement said the Russian soldiers drove into the village of Chupakhivka where they saw an unarmed resident riding a bicycle and talking on his phone.
> 
> It said the defendant was ordered by another serviceman to kill the civilian to prevent him reporting on the Russians' presence and fired several shots through the open window of the car with an assault rifle at the civilian's head, and he died on the spot.
> 
> It did not say what evidence led to the war crimes charges. The SBU Security Service of Ukraine conducted the investigation into the case, it said.
> 
> State prosecutor Andriy Synyuk told Reuters the soldier was captured when he "gave himself up". He did not elaborate.
> 
> MANY MORE CASES EXPECTED
> In the courthouse, Shishimarin was questioned by a judge who addressed him in Ukrainian and in Russian. He had an interpreter with him. Reuters could not reach him or his legal representative for comment ahead of the hearing.
> 
> "This is the first case today. But soon there will be a lot of these cases," Synyuk told reporters after the hearing.
> 
> Michelle Bachelet, the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, said on Thursday there were many examples of possible war crimes since the Russian invasion and that 1,000 bodies had been recovered so far in the Kyiv region. read more
> 
> The International Criminal Court (ICC) said on April 25 it would take part in a joint team with Ukrainian, Polish and Lithuanian prosecutors investigating war crimes allegations against Russian forces.
> 
> Ukraine has little experience in prosecuting such cases. Parliament last year adopted legislation to provide a legal framework for war crimes prosecutions in line with international practice, Zera Kozlyieva, deputy head of the war crimes unit in the prosecutor general’s office, said last month.
> 
> The country had only convicted three individuals previously for crimes related to the conflict in Donbas and Crimea between 2014 and the February invasion, she said.
> 
> Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a "special operation" to disarm the country and protect it from fascists, denying its forces committed abuses. Kyiv and its Western backers say the fascism claim is a false pretext for an unprovoked war of aggression.


----------



## AlexanderM

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525160190177329152


----------



## daftandbarmy

Meanwhile, in Norway:

UK and Norway sign agreement to boost security in Europe and beyond​

A new joint declaration between the UK and Norway has been signed, stating the countries will work together to boost "security, sustainability and prosperity" in Europe and beyond.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Norwegian counterpart Mr Jonas Gahr Store made the move following a meeting in London, where they were said to have "underscored their full support" for any choice by Nordic partners to enhance their security.

This comes after Finland's leaders announced that they backed the country joining NATO.

Finland has previously opted to stay neutral and keep out of NATO for fear of antagonising Russia, with which it shares an 830-mile land border.

Sweden who along with Finland signed historic security assurance declarations with the UK this week, are also expected to decide on joining NATO in the coming days.

Earlier, Norway's prime minister Jonas Gahr Store told broadcasters this was a "historic" time for his region.

According to No 10, Mr Store observed that the new declaration will mean Norway co-operates "more extensively with the UK than any other country in the world".

At their meeting, the leaders were said to have discussed the security situation in northern Europe and stressed that Russian president Vladimir Putin's "barbaric" invasion of Ukraine and "hostility" towards neighbouring states was "totally unjustified".









						UK and Norway sign agreement to boost security in Europe and beyond
					

Norway’s prime minister Jonas Gahr Store told broadcasters this was a "historic" time for his region.




					www.forces.net


----------



## Czech_pivo

Soldier35 said:


> Published footage of the army evacuators BREM-1 in Ukraine. The video shows the evacuation of the damaged T-72B3 tank from the battlefield. In the current conditions, the repair of military equipment in Ukraine is carried out in an aggregate way. The main task is to restore and return equipment to the front as quickly as possible.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian troops and militia special forces, with the help of anti-tank systems, delivered an accurate missile attack on repeater towers in Ukraine. Soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine installed surveillance cameras on the towers and used them to correct the fire of the artillery of the Ukrainian army. With the help of ATGM guided missiles, all targets were destroyed.



Yesterday in Ukraine, _*1st Potato Guards Army*_ successfully organised a mass potato peeling exhibition for the local Ukrainians in order to demonstrate the superior Russian skills utilized in this vital exercise. Fun and enjoyment was had by all!

 

 Not to be outdone, the* 64th Mashed Potato Shock Division* held an open house at a local 'Dom kul'tury' just metres inside the Ukrainian border to demonstrate the gravity defying culinary skills that their cooks can achieve with mashed potatoes when given the proper ingredients and time.  



Tune in next week to more exciting and make benefit glorious nation of Russia!


----------



## TacticalTea

Quirky said:


> This is correct. We’ve since upgraded to suction cup mounts.


You're closer to the truth than the comment you're replying to ;P


Blackadder1916 said:


> Not waiting to take action.  How long before the Russians retaliate?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine begins first war crimes trial of Russian soldier
> 
> 
> A Ukrainian court held a preliminary hearing on Friday in the first war crimes trial arising from Russia's Feb. 24 invasion, after charging a captured Russian soldier with the murder of a 62-year-old civilian.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


That was my concern too. I prefer the Gitmo idea where you're a P.O.W. till the W is over. Only then can the trial begin. Then Russia can't deflect to Ukraine to equivocate about its sham trials.


----------



## TacticalTea

daftandbarmy said:


> Meanwhile, in Norway:
> 
> UK and Norway sign agreement to boost security in Europe and beyond​
> 
> A new joint declaration between the UK and Norway has been signed, stating the countries will work together to boost "security, sustainability and prosperity" in Europe and beyond.
> 
> Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Norwegian counterpart Mr Jonas Gahr Store made the move following a meeting in London, where they were said to have "underscored their full support" for any choice by Nordic partners to enhance their security.
> 
> This comes after Finland's leaders announced that they backed the country joining NATO.
> 
> Finland has previously opted to stay neutral and keep out of NATO for fear of antagonising Russia, with which it shares an 830-mile land border.
> 
> Sweden who along with Finland signed historic security assurance declarations with the UK this week, are also expected to decide on joining NATO in the coming days.
> 
> Earlier, Norway's prime minister Jonas Gahr Store told broadcasters this was a "historic" time for his region.
> 
> According to No 10, Mr Store observed that the new declaration will mean Norway co-operates "more extensively with the UK than any other country in the world".
> 
> At their meeting, the leaders were said to have discussed the security situation in northern Europe and stressed that Russian president Vladimir Putin's "barbaric" invasion of Ukraine and "hostility" towards neighbouring states was "totally unjustified".
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> UK and Norway sign agreement to boost security in Europe and beyond
> 
> 
> Norway’s prime minister Jonas Gahr Store told broadcasters this was a "historic" time for his region.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.forces.net


Hat trick for BoJo. Sweden, Finland, and now Norway!

The UK has something for controversial conservative leaders that step up to the plate. 

🇬🇧  🇬🇧  🇬🇧

That Franco-German ''leadership'' doesn't shine too bright in comparison. In the spirit of fairness, some (week-old) post-election French action: For first time, France talks openly about sending weapons to Ukraine - Breaking Defense


----------



## MilEME09

This week on Russian failures.....an AA missile bring a dud after launch


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525065846611185666


----------



## Quirky

MilEME09 said:


> This week on Russian failures.....an AA missile bring a dud after launch
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525065846611185666



Hahahahahaha that Russian flag in the foreground is perfect.


----------



## Kirkhill

TacticalTea said:


> Hat trick for BoJo. Sweden, Finland, and now Norway!
> 
> The UK has something for controversial conservative leaders that step up to the plate.
> 
> 🇬🇧  🇬🇧  🇬🇧
> 
> That Franco-German ''leadership'' doesn't shine too bright in comparison. In the spirit of fairness, some (week-old) post-election French action: For first time, France talks openly about sending weapons to Ukraine - Breaking Defense





> France confirmed on April 29 it is loaning 12 Caesar truck-mounted guns



Macron:  I want them back when you're done!

Zelenskiy:  Don't worry! We'll take good care of them!


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Kirkhill said:


> Macron:  I want them back when you're done!
> 
> Zelenskiy:  Don't worry! We'll take good care of them!


Being put to better use than rolling down the  Champs-Élysées on Bastille Day.


----------



## Kirkhill

More Reddit Bits

Unconfirmed but not unbelievable - a lot of similar speculation out there


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uox0yp

Russian driver making a video when he might be better off driving


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uotuqb

Luhansk Militia retreating from Kharkiv with the Russians - The Russians won't let them into Russia - Waiting for the next Ukrainian tractor.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uotg0d

Russian confirmation of the Belohorivka Debacle


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uovj95

And another Logistics ship on fire


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uofwsd


----------



## MilEME09

Interesting if true, also explains spains support


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525000530984050690


----------



## Kirkhill

China throwing Russia under the bus?



> Gao Yusheng, former PRC Ambassador to the Ukraine: “The Russian military’s economic and financial strength, which are not commensurate with its status as a so-called military superpower, could not support a high-tech war. The Russian army’s poverty-driven defeat was evident”




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525025508064370689


----------



## MilEME09

Good bye black sea fleet


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525200668172197888


----------



## kev994

Quirky said:


> This is correct. We’ve since upgraded to suction cup mounts.


C’mon now. We’re onto “Double Suction Cups”. The iPads EFBs (Electronic Flight Bags) kept pulling the singles off the window.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Kirkhill said:


> China throwing Russia under the bus?


Stating a factual observation is hardly throwing them under the bus.

Switching bets in the middle of the horse race however....


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> Good bye black sea fleet
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525200668172197888


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525137182058500096
and for the utterly out of touch with reality crowd...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525176043539144704


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525147224409350144

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525041289984606213


----------



## CBH99

MilEME09 said:


> Good bye black sea fleet
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525200668172197888


Gotta love how Israel tippy toes along, with each foot lightly tapping either side of the line.  

One week, they don’t want to worsen their relations with Russia.  The next week, they grant access to a missile system that can sink whatever is remaining of Russia’s Black Sea fleet.  (Keep in mind it wasn’t just the cruiser & frigate taken out.  Several drop ships & gunboats have been taken out also.)


I’m not even being facetious - it takes some real smarts & wits to assist in their force’s demise yet maintain decent relations simultaneously.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525227190031376384


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525137182058500096
> and for the utterly out of touch with reality crowd...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525176043539144704



The Scandanvians always loved our woolly pullies and, of course, we preferred their sweaters


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

CBH99 said:


> Gotta love how Israel tippy toes along, with each foot lightly tapping either side of the line.
> 
> One week, they don’t want to worsen their relations with Russia.  The next week, they grant access to a missile system that can sink whatever is remaining of Russia’s Black Sea fleet.  (Keep in mind it wasn’t just the cruiser & frigate taken out.  Several drop ships & gunboats have been taken out also.)
> 
> 
> I’m not even being facetious - it takes some real smarts & wits to assist in their force’s demise yet maintain decent relations simultaneously.


There hasn't been a frigate taken out in the Black Sea.

Both are still operational.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525256333506883586


----------



## YZT580

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525137182058500096
> and for the utterly out of touch with reality crowd...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525176043539144704


are they believing their own propaganda?


----------



## KevinB

YZT580 said:


> are they believing their own propaganda?


I think at this point no one really cares what they believe in that respect.  It’s just Putin’s echo chamber.


----------



## daftandbarmy

YZT580 said:


> are they believing their own propaganda?



I'm thinking that it's probably time for NATO to ramp up the recruitment efforts amongst those who've signed on to the 'Partnerships for Peace' program.

Especially amongst the 'Stans' 


PARTNERS​NATO cooperates with a range of international organisations and countries in different structures. Below is a list of these partners with links to web pages on their relations with NATO as well as links to their information servers.
Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC)​The EAPC consists of all NATO member countries and the following Partnership for Peace countries:






						Partners
					






					www.nato.int


----------



## McG

YZT580 said:


> are they believing their own propaganda?


Their propaganda is working in various parts of the world.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525339870629138433


----------



## Skysix

Soldier35 said:


> A Czech-made RM-70 multiple launch rocket system has been spotted in Ukraine. RM-70 MLRS have been produced in Czechoslovakia since 1972. The RM-70 can be considered an analogue of the Soviet Grad MLRS, but the system has a number of distinct advantages. For example, it has greater cross-country ability and is able to hit targets at a greater distance. Until now, about fifty such MLRS remained in the Czech Republic, most of them were decommissioned and were in storage.


The Tatra 813 has the most off-road capability of any of the heavy 8x8x8 trucks. The downside is the air-cooled 17.6L multifuel-hog only has 730 ft.lbf of torque (266hp) from the factory.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> ... and for the utterly out of touch with reality crowd...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525176043539144704


To put this into context, it appears a senior member of the majority party in the Duma said via Telegram (a UAE-based Twitter of sorts) it's time to Un-nazi-ize Poland ....


> "By its statements about Russia as a 'cancer tumor' and about the 'indemnity' that we must pay to Ukraine, Poland encourages us to put it in first place in the queue for denazification after Ukraine,"


That's like the House Majority Leader saying "X" - significant having a senior ruling party person saying it, but not the same as the House itself saying "X".
More on this ....








						Putin Ally Pushes Russia Toward War With Poland
					

Recent "denazification" comments posted by Oleg Morozov, a member of the Russian parliament, could further strain tensions between Russia and Europe.




					www.newsweek.com
				











						Russian lawmaker warns Poland is next in line for 'denazification after Ukraine'
					

A Russian lawmaker is warning Friday that recent comments from Poland’s leaders are encouraging Moscow to “put it in first place in the queue for denazification after Ukraine.”




					www.foxnews.com
				




Meanwhile, USA government-funded fact checking is sorting out the Wali narrative ....








						Russia, Then China, Distort Canadian Sniper’s Ukraine War Tale
					

Statements by “Wali,” a Canadian veteran who volunteered to fight in Ukraine, were exaggerated. Wali later said he'd erred.




					www.polygraph.info


----------



## kev994

Soldier35 said:


> A Czech-made RM-70 multiple launch rocket system has been spotted in Ukraine. RM-70 MLRS have been produced in Czechoslovakia since 1972. The RM-70 can be considered an analogue of the Soviet Grad MLRS, but the system has a number of distinct advantages. For example, it has greater cross-country ability and is able to hit targets at a greater distance. Until now, about fifty such MLRS remained in the Czech Republic, most of them were decommissioned and were in storage.


Does it have those knock-off tires that keep failing?


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

"Czech-made?"....and spotted in Ukraine??

So another country that thinks you folks are clowns are supplying the Ukranian people also.?

So many countries left to retake,  so few weapons left....


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525424374551138306


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525467973556789248


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525467973556789248


Cool if true. Let’s wait for some serious corroboration and see if some geography actually changes hands.


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> A Czech-made RM-70 multiple launch rocket system has been spotted in Ukraine. RM-70 MLRS have been produced in Czechoslovakia since 1972. The RM-70 can be considered an analogue of the Soviet Grad MLRS, but the system has a number of distinct advantages. For example, it has greater cross-country ability and is able to hit targets at a greater distance. Until now, about fifty such MLRS remained in the Czech Republic, most of them were decommissioned and were in storage.


See @Soldier35, NATO makes some pretty decent kit!


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525348516473741313


----------



## MilEME09

Heavy salt required 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525504170580639744


----------



## Kirkhill

McG said:


> Their propaganda is working in various parts of the world.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525339870629138433



Is it though?  Really?

If I look at that scatter diagram I see the broadest range in Indian English and South African, also an English speaking community.  That might suggest a Lanchester Strategy of indirectly targeting the "Anglo-Sphere" led West.  That would encompass the US and the UK, ABCANZUS generally, but also all those other countries where English is a working language - and that includes much of the EU and East Asia.

The Hindi, Tamil, Farsi etc might just be leakage from the English messaging.  Given that the Tamil tweets are similar in size to the Hindi tweets, when I would have expected there to be a lot more Hindus than Tamils, seems a bit odd to me.


----------



## McG

Kirkhill said:


> That might suggest a Lanchester Strategy of indirectly targeting the "Anglo-Sphere" led West.


More likely it reflects a strategy of regional targeting. Russia is re-engaging those disaffected communities that served as its Cold War proxies. They are making appeals to hypocrisy using false analogies. The US & UK are not going to change their positions on the war. Russia will still engage these western Anglo communities with disinformation, but the real goal is to build support (or more importantly to undermine support) in South Asia, Africa, and Latin America. When they succeed in those regions, it gives them markets to circumvent sanctions and it gives them less opposition in global forums such as the UN. India’s relative acquiescence of Russia’s behaviour would suggest this regional targeting is paying benefits.



Kirkhill said:


> The Hindi, Tamil, Farsi etc might just be leakage from the English messaging.


You seem to be assuming these messages (and their amplification) are organic.


----------



## Kirkhill

McG said:


> More likely it reflects a strategy of regional targeting. Russia is re-engaging those disaffected communities that served as its Cold War proxies. They are making appeals to hypocrisy using false analogies. The US & UK are not going to change their positions on the war. Russia will still engage these western Anglo communities with disinformation, but the real goal is to build support (or more importantly to undermine support) in South Asia, Africa, and Latin America. When they succeed in those regions, it gives them markets to circumvent sanctions and it gives them less opposition in global forums such as the UN. India’s relative acquiescence of Russia’s behaviour would suggest this regional targeting is paying benefits.
> 
> 
> You seem to be assuming these messages (and their amplification) are organic.



You're right.  But...  

Another possibility

The US and the UK positions could be undermined though, as could the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand ones, through appeals to the anti-colonialists, socialists and isolationists in the domestic populations.   Even if it doesn't stop shipments to Ukraine it may limit them and continue to prevent boots on the ground and a no-fly zone.  For example.

And yes, my assumptions can be all wrong.


----------



## daftandbarmy




----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:


> ... The Hindi, Tamil, Farsi etc might just be leakage from the English messaging.  Given that the Tamil tweets are similar in size to the Hindi tweets, when I would have expected there to be a lot more Hindus than Tamils, seems a bit odd to me.


Here's the full Economist's article (via archived link).  The analysis is based on # of posts, not length - and the article suggests that some change in position happens with this stuff.

Also, here's some recent coverage from The Atlantic suggesting it's all targeted in that direction, not spillage.


----------



## Brad Sallows

India's position is most likely in large part due to the cost of oil, which it has to buy a lot of, as a consequence of which it has to be nice to the sellers offering the lowest prices.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Turkey:  NATO's bi-polar ally ....








						Turkey has offered sea evacuation for wounded Ukrainian fighters, Erdogan adviser says
					

NATO member Turkey has proposed carrying out a sea evacuation of wounded fighters holed up in a steel works in the southern Ukrainian city of Mariupol, President Tayyip Erdogan's spokesman said on Saturday.




					www.reuters.com
				











						Turkey may oppose Finland and Sweden joining Nato, Erdogan says
					

Any potential application by Finland or Sweden to join the alliance must be ratified by all 30 member states.




					yle.fi


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> Turkey:  NATO's bi-polar ally ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Turkey has offered sea evacuation for wounded Ukrainian fighters, Erdogan adviser says
> 
> 
> NATO member Turkey has proposed carrying out a sea evacuation of wounded fighters holed up in a steel works in the southern Ukrainian city of Mariupol, President Tayyip Erdogan's spokesman said on Saturday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Turkey may oppose Finland and Sweden joining Nato, Erdogan says
> 
> 
> Any potential application by Finland or Sweden to join the alliance must be ratified by all 30 member states.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> yle.fi



Its kind of hard to blame Turkey if you consider the way the EU has treated them.  The Europeans still don't know if they are Europeans or Asiatics.  And they response varies from country to country and by the governments of the day.

I like the quote I just saw recently.  "If you want to have a friend, be a friend."  And friendship develops through thick and thin.  The Turks don't get much consideration.  Can we blame them if the adopt the prevailing view that nations don't have friends, they have interests?


----------



## Kirkhill

A French view on Macronism.









						I defended Emmanuel Macron's approach to Russia - now it's unforgivable
					

The French President’s realpolitik is turning him into a Putin-enabler




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				






> There’s a peculiarly French way of getting important decisions wrong, and it’s best described by a very British expression the likes of Emmanuel Macron cannot see the point of, “too clever by half”. It’s all about finessing power play and triangulating self-interest; replacing simple words like “honour”, “right” and “wrong” by sophisticated calculations which we call “realism”.
> 
> Yesterday, Volodymyr Zelensky called the French president flat out on it on the national Italian broadcaster, RAI. Macron’s endless negotiations and eagerness to allow Russia to “save face” were “in vain”. “Ukraine is not ready to sacrifice territory and sovereignty. This is a waste of time.”
> 
> Faced with the predictable social media outcry, Élysée notables backtracked. “The French President has never ever discussed anything with VVP without President Zelensky’s consent and has never asked him for any concession. He has always said that it was up to the Ukrainians to decide the terms of their negotiations with the Russians,” tweeted both Anne-Sophie Bradelle from her official presidency account, and the Foreign Ministry political director Philippe Errera in the exact same words.
> 
> 
> We’ll probably never get to the bottom of this particular instance, but the general line is perfectly consistent with France’s position as defended by her foremost diplomats and generals – types that almost never take a stance without checking it with their hierarchies. Only last week, I was debating General Vincent Desportes, a former head of the prestigious École de Guerre, who was piously calling for an immediate ceasefire “so that people won’t suffer” – unwilling to admit that this would result in leaving large chunks of the Ukrainian Black sea coast and the Donbas, including Mariupol and Kherson, in the hand of an occupier capable of executions, mass deportations, and worse.
> 
> I long defended Macron’s approach to Putin. Seeking to keep channels open, in early February, and again two days after the beginning of the Russian attack, seemed sensible, even necessary. At that stage even my Ukrainian friends in Kyiv and Odessa did not believe that the Russians meant to wage a war of total conquest and annihilation of their country’s identity.
> 
> But now my President’s continued equivocation is unforgivable. Macron should shut up. Just add up his latest statements. No EU membership for Ukraine for decades. No NATO membership for Kyiv either. Repeated warnings not to humiliate Russia. All this plays in the hands of Putin and no-one else. Recall that back in 2019, Macron was waxing rhapsodic on Russia as “a true European nation, heir to the Enlightenment” – a notion that applied in its time to Turgenev and Chekhov, not to Vladimir today.
> 
> Look at Macron’s latest project, the “multi-tier EU” (or EU-lite) for those European countries that France and Germany disapprove of. That thing doesn’t exist, isn’t financed, has no known shape and hasn’t been agreed by anyone except a Macron-called “Conference for the Future of Europe” in which citizens drawn by lots were invited to provide “unmediated” public opinion, which somehow would be truer.
> 
> Macron’s entire education, like that of most French elites, has taught him to respect strength and power, not courage. It’s the ethos of the civil service that shaped him, and it’s simple defeatism.
> 
> It’s infected parts of Europe, too: there’s an Axis of Munichois whiff over Macron and Scholz. (At least France hasn’t insulted her Ukrainian ambassador, as German politicians routinely do, calling the brave Andrey Melnik “crass.”) But in effect, their weasel words, like “reasonable”, “sensible”, “practical”...only mean selfish surrender.



She might consider referencing Vichy-soise.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:


> Its kind of hard to blame Turkey if you consider the way the EU has treated them.  The Europeans still don't know if they are Europeans or Asiatics.  And they response varies from country to country and by the governments of the day.
> 
> I like the quote I just saw recently.  "If you want to have a friend, be a friend."  And friendship develops through thick and thin.  The Turks don't get much consideration.  Can we blame them if the adopt the prevailing view that nations don't have friends, they have interests?


When you put it that way, it looks like a bit of chicken-and-egg thing:  who was the first to piss the other off, and here's where we are now.  

Still, wanting the F35s while also wanting RUS anti-air tech seems a bit passive aggressive as a stand-alone policy


----------



## Kirkhill

US Intelligence Agencies wondering how to get it righter... It is easy to count tanks.  Hard to count willing drivers.









						US intelligence community launches review following Ukraine and Afghanistan intel failings | CNN Politics
					

The US intelligence community is carrying out a sweeping internal review of how it assesses the fighting power of foreign militaries amid mounting pressure from key lawmakers on Capitol Hill who say officials have failed twice in one year on the two major foreign policy crises faced by the Biden...




					www.cnn.com
				




I would make this observation - the one thing that everybody has got wrong is the willingness of the local community to fight the invader.

Vietnam fought the Chinese as hard as it did the Americans.  Yugoslavians fought the UN and NATO (as well as each other).  Israelis. Palestinians.  Indians. Pakistanis. Rhodesians.  Shona. Matabele. Afghans. Iraqis.  The one common denominator, in my view, is that the sense of home negates any sense of time or any disparity in weaponry.

The Scotch-Irish and the Anglo-Irish still fight the Catholic Irish and each other.  Wales and Scotland still fight England.  The English still fight the French.  Quebec still fights the Anglos.  And now the outsiders even if they do speak a French.

Tanks and planes win battles.  And Professionals in tanks and planes do better than Amateurs in tanks and planes.  But tanks and planes, even with professionals, can't win wars.  They can buy time and cool things down for a while.  Maybe buy a truce, an armistice. But they can't win wars.


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> When you put it that way, it looks like a bit of chicken-and-egg thing:  who was the first to piss the other off, and here's where we are now.
> 
> Still, wanting the F35s while also wanting RUS anti-air tech seems a bit passive aggressive as a stand-alone policy



You mean like India?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:


> You mean like India?


India's not a NATO member, but yeah, just as ballsy.


----------



## The Bread Guy

<cue Vito Corleone voice>








						Finland's End of Military Neutrality a 'Mistake,' Putin Tells Finnish President - The Moscow Times
					

Helsinki is expected to announce its NATO membership bid on Sunday.




					www.themoscowtimes.com


----------



## rmc_wannabe

It's hilarious how Putin's "Gangster Diplomacy" strategy has now turned into bravado with no substance, but yet that's the only thing written in the play book. I wonder how many  Russophile nations are now feeling like they got duped into supporting Vlad the Impotent.


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> India's not a NATO member, but yeah, just as ballsy.



But supposedly a "friend" via The Quad - US, Australia, Japan and India.  3 out of 4 ain't bad.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> Its kind of hard to blame Turkey if you consider the way the EU has treated them.  The Europeans still don't know if they are Europeans or Asiatics.  And they response varies from country to country and by the governments of the day.
> 
> I like the quote I just saw recently.  "If you want to have a friend, be a friend."  And friendship develops through thick and thin.  The Turks don't get much consideration.  Can we blame them if the adopt the prevailing view that nations don't have friends, they have interests?



Don't trot out that quote in Cyprus... the Greek Cypriots might knee you in the Famagusta


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525589800455135233


----------



## Good2Golf

The Bread Guy said:


> Still, wanting the F35s while also wanting RUS anti-air tech seems a bit passive aggressive as a stand-alone policy


In fairness to Turkey, they only bought S-400s after the US said no to Patriots.


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> US Intelligence Agencies wondering how to get it righter... It is easy to count tanks.  Hard to count willing drivers.
> I would make this observation - the one thing that everybody has got wrong is the willingness of the local community to fight the invader.


The biggest factor, in my opinion, is the reliance on SigInt and other tech sources, not HumInt. HumInt is harder to get and even harder to filter and analyse, but a lot
closer to reality than a low orbit photo or an industrial output spreadsheet.

The State Department's intelligence arm, the Bureau of Intelligence and Research, has consistently been more accurate (boots on the ground analysis) than all the other Stateside agencies.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Now that’s a great donation to a good cause


----------



## MilEME09

Atleast one of these looks like a Canadian gun


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525527241676947456


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> The biggest factor, in my opinion, is the reliance on SigInt and other tech sources, not HumInt. HumInt is harder to get and even harder to filter and analyse, but a lot
> closer to reality than a low orbit photo or an industrial output spreadsheet.
> 
> The State Department's intelligence arm, the Bureau of Intelligence and Research, has consistently been more accurate (boots on the ground analysis) than all the other Stateside agencies.



  Do you suppose Global Affairs Canada could manage that kind of Intelligence gathering?

It is a puzzlement.


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> Do you suppose Global Affairs Canada could manage that kind of Intelligence gathering?
> 
> It is a puzzlement.


Doubt it. Sorry but  their track record....


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> Doubt it. Sorry but  their track record....


You're probably right.


----------



## Maxman1

From a few days ago. Flag raising at Canada's embassy in Kyiv.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523486623605743617


----------



## FJAG

🤦‍♂️


----------



## MilEME09

date unknown, Ukrainian Su-25's flying low and popping flares to avoid SAM's


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525684402306555905


----------



## TacticalTea

Maxman1 said:


> From a few days ago. Flag raising at Canada's embassy in Kyiv.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523486623605743617


Flag raising? Where?

Bent on at most...


----------



## daftandbarmy

The 93rd Brigade, near Izium


----------



## Booter

YZT580 said:


> are they believing their own propaganda?


Russian news and politics are for the Russians first and foremost. Because Putin has been the font from which all the extras flow- and has enjoyed popularity his approval is their career…what he supplies is what goes.

It was the same during the second Chechen war- and it was the same when he was trying to deal with internal politics and terrorism (often also linked to Chechens)…or dealing with their submarine running aground and killing all those sailors for example.

Tell Russia a story, the rest of the world be damned. They are riding on the nazi element. Because nazis are bad, we can all get behind that. No matter how stupid the accusations look to Say…Israel.


----------



## Haggis

Soldier35 said:


> The Russian army stopped the APU's attempt to cross the river. The battle unfolded on the Seversky Donets River, presumably near the village of Petrovskoye, where the Ukrainian army created a pontoon crossing and tried to cross the river. Russian motorized skirmishers engaged in battle and adjusted artillery fire on the guided crossing and the AFU equipment sheltering in the forest. As a result of the battle, the ferry was destroyed and drowned. The Ukrainian troops who managed to cross were destroyed by artillery fire.


I think you were reading your map upside down.


----------



## McG

Bleak picture painted for Russian position.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525704460214878208


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525803115848642567


----------



## The Bread Guy

RUS state media, stirring the divisiveness pot ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

The Bread Guy said:


> ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Turkey may oppose Finland and Sweden joining Nato, Erdogan says
> 
> 
> Any potential application by Finland or Sweden to join the alliance must be ratified by all 30 member states.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> yle.fi


A bit more detail on the cost of Turkey's "yes" -- this, from a senior TUR official to Reuters ....


> ... Kalin said the militant Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) - designated a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the United States and the European Union - was fund-raising and recruiting in Europe and its presence is "strong and open and acknowledged" in Sweden in particular.  "What needs to be done is clear: they have to stop allowing PKK outlets, activities, organisations, individuals and other types of presence to...exist in those countries," Kalin said ...


Another reminder from yesterday ...








						At NATO meet, Turkey criticises Swedish and Finnish support for PKK
					

Turkey's foreign minister criticised on Saturday the "unacceptable and outrageous" support that prospective new NATO members Sweden and Finland give to the PKK Kurdish militant group, potentially complicating the alliance's enlargement.




					www.reuters.com
				



... with a slightly more "glass is 1/2 full" take from TUR pro-govt media








						Turkey open to NATO talks with Finland, Sweden despite PKK support
					

Turkey has not shut the door on Sweden and Finland joining NATO and is willing to negotiate with the countries if they agree to clamp down on domestic...




					www.dailysabah.com


----------



## McG

Kirkhill said:


> You're right.  But...
> 
> Another possibility
> 
> The US and the UK positions could be undermined though, as could the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand ones, through appeals to the anti-colonialists, socialists and isolationists in the domestic populations.   Even if it doesn't stop shipments to Ukraine it may limit them and continue to prevent boots on the ground and a no-fly zone.  For example.


As I stated, Russian disinformation is definitely still targeting the 5 eyes nations, as the existence of the Soldier35 account demonstrates. I also have no doubt that it is targeting disaffected aboriginal and minority communities. But, Russia knows it gets much more mileage by feeding, agitating, and amplifying the disaffected wings of political left & right. This has been well documented by several think-tanks, journalists, and academics and it is illustrated here:


The Bread Guy said:


> RUS state media, stirring the divisiveness pot ....
> View attachment 70752


----------



## The Bread Guy

McG said:


> ... it is targeting disaffected aboriginal and minority communities. But, Russia knows it gets much more mileage by feeding, agitating, and amplifying the disaffected wings of political left & right ...


Yup - and it all started _well_ before the #NotAWar began, for sure.


----------



## ueo

Kirkhill said:


> You're probably right.


What  track record? They have one?


----------



## Kirkhill

In a less jocular mode



> THE EARLY YEARS –  A SHORT HISTORY OF CANADA’S DEFENCE ATTACHÉ PROGRAM 1945-1965​by Christopher Kilford
> 
> Colonel Christopher Kilford, CD, PhD, _is currently employed as the Canadian Defence Attaché in Turkey, with cross-accreditation to Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkmenistan. In 2009, he completed his PhD at Queen’s University. His dissertation addressed the roles that militaries play in the developing societies, and focused upon Canada’s military assistance to the developing world during the post-colonial period_





			http://www.journal.forces.gc.ca/vol12/no4/page44-eng.asp
		


A longish article.

Anybody have any good links to current military attache type programs and the local gathering of Open Source Intelligence?  Not spy work.  Just being on the ground and observing that which is to be openly seen and heard.  Is Global Affairs and/or DND actively engaged in that field? Are they engaged in all countries?  Or just the major allies and enemies?

Thread split might be interesting.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525868594713833472
Some estimates say BTGs average 450 to 600 personal. So at max Russia may have around 60k combat troops in Ukraine right now. Those are not winning numbers when Ukraine just announced they are expanding their forces to 1 million thanks to western kit.


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525868594713833472
> Some estimates say BTGs average 450 to 600 personal. So at max Russia may have around 60k combat troops in Ukraine right now. Those are not winning numbers when Ukraine just announced they are expanding their forces to 1 million thanks to western kit.


Why would they run BTG's at 50% instead of combining them? Just a bunch of IFV's with no dismounts?


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> Why would they run BTG's at 50% instead of combining them? Just a bunch of IFV's with no dismounts?


The Russian BTG is vehicle heavy with only a few hundred discounts. Why they aren't merging units, I have no idea but at full strength they would have 105k combat troops in Ukraine, with the losses of almost a BTG of vehicles every couple days, I doubt this is the case. Russia seems intent on pushing their offensive with degraded forces that we would consider no longer combat effective.

My only guess is this partially has to do with their centralized command structure and an unwillingness to merge units by senior commanders who won't give up their own command to another.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

I'm not too much of an expert of Soviet/Russian doctrine, but how much are they able to water the broth before its no longer soup? Are they running out of vehicles faster than pers to crew them, or vice versa? When does it become more effective to consolidate?


----------



## AlexanderM

Putin coup is underway and 'impossible to stop,' says Ukraine's military intelligence chief


----------



## Kirkhill

suffolkowner said:


> Why would they run BTG's at 50% instead of combining them? Just a bunch of IFV's with no dismounts?



Sheer idle speculation on my part and playing with numbers ...

If we believe Wiki and take it as a starting point



> As of August 2021, Russia had about 170 BTGs.[3] Each BTG has approximately 600–800 officers and soldiers,[4] of whom roughly 200 are infantrymen, equipped with vehicles typically including roughly 10 tanks and 40 infantry fighting vehicles.



An original BTG had 600 to 800 soldiers of which it seems 200 were infantry.  The infantry were mounted in 40 IFVs.  That is about 5 infantry for each vehicle.  Assume that all of those are dismounts and that the crews are separate.  So each vehicle has 5 dismounts.

The dismounts are either in the vehicle or on the ground.

If we assume that half the IFVs have been destroyed and that the dismounts were destroyed with the IFVs then each BTG is down to 100 rifles. Or a single company.
And of that I guess it wouldn't be out of line to suggest that 1/3 to 1/2 of that number has been killed, wounded or captured on their feet during assaults.

So a Russian Battalion Tactical Group might be able to raise 40 rifles, or basically a large platoon.  They have more than their fair share of artillery but their armoured support is heavily depleted.  It is not at all unlikely that their original CO is dead.

So now when you are talking about 150 BTGs you are not talking about 150 Reinforced Battalions it would be more realistic to talk of 150 Reinforced Companies, or possibly even 150 Reinforced Platoons.

At the start of the Notawar the Russians were talking about 168 Battalions being equal to 11 or 12 Armies or 14 or so Battalions to an Army.

In the west 14 Battalions is a Division, or at best a small Corps - or a Canadian Army.

14 Companies is a Brigade in the West
14 Platoons is a Battalionish.

So they are now down to a small Brigade or a large Battalion per Army.  That is 12 Brigades or possibly even 12 Battalions.

If looking at the picture in those terms then the Russians have got a lot of Artillery, a lot of old tanks, poor logistics and are trying to take Eastern Ukraine with something close to the combined forces of the RCR, the PPCLI and the R22R. They may also have the Royal Australian Regiment strength available.

I think it is just too late in the game for them to do anything other than more of the same until somebody tells them to quit.


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> The Russian BTG is vehicle heavy with only a few hundred discounts. Why they aren't merging units, I have no idea but at full strength they would have 105k combat troops in Ukraine, with the losses of almost a BTG of vehicles every couple days, I doubt this is the case. Russia seems intent on pushing their offensive with degraded forces that we would consider no longer combat effective.
> 
> My only guess is this partially has to do with their centralized command structure and an unwillingness to merge units by senior commanders who won't give up their own command to another.


Seems like another own goal to me as they struggle in Kharkiv and pushing forward in Donetsk. 



AlexanderM said:


> Putin coup is underway and 'impossible to stop,' says Ukraine's military intelligence chief


I'll believe it when i see it


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> The Russian BTG is vehicle heavy with only a few hundred discounts. Why they aren't merging units, I have no idea but at full strength they would have 105k combat troops in Ukraine, with the losses of almost a BTG of vehicles every couple days, I doubt this is the case. Russia seems intent on pushing their offensive with degraded forces that we would consider no longer combat effective.
> 
> My only guess is this partially has to do with their centralized command structure and an unwillingness to merge units by senior commanders who won't give up their own command to another.


Russian has pumped over 80k troops into action as replacements - hence why I tend to think most of the OS RUAF casualty numbers are on the low side. 

I asked that same question elsewhere as to me right now the Russian BTG’s look more like a CAF PRes unit on parade than a fighting formation.   

It makes sense to me that they would have an amalgamation of BTG’s to ensure the Inf and Armored sections of those units are as up to strength as can be.  The excess tube Arty can be added to the BTG as a ‘bonus’ or used at higher level than the Battalion Group.  

I guess having a paper force briefs better back home…


----------



## dapaterson

Employee of the month.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525903441704501254


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> Russian has pumped over 80k troops into action as replacements - hence why I tend to think most of the OS RUAF casualty numbers are on the low side.
> 
> I asked that same question elsewhere as to me right now the Russian BTG’s look more like a CAF PRes unit on parade than a fighting formation.
> 
> It makes sense to me that they would have an amalgamation of BTG’s to ensure the Inf and Armored sections of those units are as up to strength as can be.  The excess tube Arty can be added to the BTG as a ‘bonus’ or used at higher level than the Battalion Group.
> 
> I guess having a paper force briefs better back home…


I'd agree, it's likely a ploy to say they have a large force when in reality just like our PRes they should be Marged, and likely would have 50-70 BTGs at full strength. They are mobilizing more reserves but those take time to get upto snub.


----------



## Kirkhill

A transparent world and an incredibly fast OODA loop.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497390633861976068


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525931815793475587


----------



## Kirkhill

To everything there is a season?


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uq4bbe


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukrainian M777 



			https://mil.in.ua/en/news/skify-the-ukrainian-armed-forces-have-developed-a-battery-that-fights-with-the-m777/


----------



## Skysix

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500197460626624513
English translation of leaked FSB rant from 2 months ago. Is ringing true.

Bellingcat (award-winning investigative journalists focused on Russia) says in the above thread that their FSB contacts say it sounds plausible. Bellingcat is a reliable source, which makes this leak interesting.

Even so, grain of salt, etc. Here's a rough translation of the text of the leak:



"I’ll be honest right away: I have hardly slept all these days. Almost all the time at work my head is floating, as if it were in a fog. And sometimes I'm overworked and convinced that none of this is real.

To be honest, Pandora's Box is open. A real global horror will begin by the summer - global famine is inevitable (Russia and Ukraine were the main suppliers of grain in the world, this year's harvest will be smaller, and logistical problems will bring the catastrophe to a peak point).

I can't tell you what guided those at the top when deciding on the operation, but now they are methodically lowering all the dogs on us (the FSB). We are scolded for analytics - this is very much up my wheelhouse, so let me explain.

Recently, we have been increasingly pressed to customize reports to the requirements of management - I once touched on this topic. All these political consultants, politicians and their retinue, influence teams - all this created strong chaos.

Most importantly, no one knew that there would be such a war, they hid it from everyone. Here's an example for you: you are asked (conditionally) to calculate the possibility of human rights protection in different conditions, including if prisons were to be hit by meteorites. You specify meteorites as insurance for calculations, they tell you nothing like this will really happen. 

You understand that the report will be just for show, but you need to write in a victorious style so that there are no questions. They ask, why do you have so many problems, did you really work badly? In general, a report is being written that when a meteorite falls, we have everything to eliminate the consequences, we are great, everything is fine. And you concentrate on tasks that are real - we don’t have enough strength anyway. And then suddenly they really throw meteorites and expect that everything will be according to your analytics, which weren't to be taken seriously.

That is why we have a total clusterfuck - I don’t even want to pick another word. There is no protection from sanctions for the same reason: well, it’s quite possible that [Russian Central Bank head] Nabiullina will be accused of negligence (rather, the switchmen from her team), but what are they to blame for? No one knew that there would be such a war, so no one prepared for such sanctions. This is the reverse side of secrecy: since no one was told, then who could calculate what no one knew about?

Kadyrov is going crazy. And his anger almost started with us: perhaps even the Ukrainians threw in misinformation that it was we who handed over the routes of Kadyrov's special forces in the first days of the operation. They were marching without cover, they had not yet begun to fight, and they were simply torn to pieces in some places. Off we go: it was the FSB that leaked the routes to the Ukrainians. I do not have such information, but I will still give it a 1-2% chance of being true (it cannot be ruled out at all either).

The blitzkrieg failed. It is simply impossible to complete the task now: if Zelensky and the authorities were captured in the first 1-3 days, they seized all the key buildings in Kyiv, they gave them the order to surrender - then yes, the resistance would subside. In theory. But what's next? Even with this ideal scenario, there was an unsolvable problem: with whom to negotiate? If we depose Zelensky, well, with whom should we sign agreements?

If we sign agreements with Zelensky before we depose him, those papers are worth nothing. The opposition party refused to cooperate: Medvedchuk is a coward, he fled. There is a second leader in that party - Boyko, but he refuses to work with us - even his own people will not understand him. They wanted to return Tsarev, but even our pro-Russian people turned against him. Return Yanukovych? But as? If we say that Ukraine is impossible to occupy, then any of our authorities will be killed there in 10 minutes, as we leave. 

Occupy? Where are we going to get so many people? Commandant's offices, military police, counterintelligence, security - even with minimal resistance from the locals, we need 500 thousand or more people. And that's not even counting logistics. There is a rule that by using a high quantity of management to make up for poor quality, you spoil everything. And this, I repeat, would be with the ideal option, which does not exist.

What now? We cannot announce mobilization for two reasons:

Large-scale mobilization will undermine the situation inside the country: political, economic, social.

Our logistics are already overstretched today. Our contingent would be many times larger, and what will we get? Ukraine is a hefty country in terms of territory. And now the level of hatred towards us is going through the roof. Our roads simply won't be able to handle such supply caravans - everything will come to a standstill. And we won't manage to recover - because it's chaos.

And these two reasons occur at the same time, although even one is enough to break everything off.

Losses: I don't know how many there are. Nobody knows. For the first two days there was still control, now no one knows what is going on there. You can lose large units in communication. They can be found, or they can be attacked and dissolve. Even the commanders may not know how many of them are running around somewhere nearby, how many died, how many are in captivity. The number of deaths is definitely in the thousands. Maybe 10 thousand, maybe 5, or maybe only 2. Even at the headquarters they don’t know for sure. But it should be closer to 10. And that's without counting the DPR and LPR, they do their own accounting.

Now, even if Zelensky is killed, captured, nothing will change. Ukraine is like Chechnya in terms of hatred towards us. Even those who were once loyal to us are now against us. Because it was planned from above, because we were told that this wouldn't happen unless we were attacked. Because they explained that it was necessary to create the most credible threat in order to peacefully agree on the right conditions. Because we were initially preparing protests within Ukraine against Zelensky. But these didn't account for our direct entry. Our invasion, to put it simply.

Further civilian losses will increase exponentially - and resistance to us will also only increase. They already tried to enter the cities with infantry - out of twenty landing groups, only one had a conditional success. Remember the assault on Mosul - after all, this is the rule, it was the same for all countries, nothing new.

Keep under siege? According to the experience of military conflicts in the same Europe in recent decades (Serbia is the largest testing ground here), cities can be under siege for years, and even function. Humanitarian convoys from Europe will arrive there in a matter of time.

We have a conditional deadline of June. Conditional - because in June we have no economy left. Nothing will remain. By and large, next week there will be a turning point in one of the sides, simply because the situation is stressed to the breaking point. There are no analytics - it is impossible to calculate the chaos, no one can say anything for sure. Act intuitively, and even on emotions - but this is not poker. Rates will rise, in the hope that suddenly some option will shoot through. The trouble is that we, too, can now miscalculate and lose everything in one move.

By and large, the country has no way out. There is no option for a possible victory. We 100% repeated the beginning of the last century [the Russo-Japanese War], when we decided to kick weak Japan and get a quick victory... then it turned out that our army was in trouble. They started the war to the bitter end, then they began to take the Bolsheviks for "re-education" into the army - after all, they were outcasts, uninteresting to anyone in the masses. And then, the Bolsheviks, who were not really known to anyone, picked up anti-war slogans and it all started...

From the pros: we did everything so that even a hint of the mass sending of "penalty boxes" to the front line did not pass. If you send convicts and "socially unreliable" political prisoners there (so that they don't mess with public opinion inside the country) - the morale of the army will simply go into the negative. The enemy is motivated, terribly motivated. He knows how to fight, there are enough middle-level commanders there. There are weapons. They have support. We will simply set a precedent for human loss in the world. And that's it.

What we are most afraid of: at the top, they act according to the rule of overlapping the old problem with a new problem. Largely for this reason, the Donbass of 2014 began - it was necessary to divert the attention of Westerners from the topic of the Russian spring in Crimea, so the Donbass crisis, it seems, should have drawn all the attention to itself and become the subject of bargaining. But there were even bigger problems. Then they decided to push Erdogan on 4 pipes of the South Stream [a Russian pipeline through Turkey] and we entered Syria - this is after Soleimani lied in order to solve his problems. As a result, it was not possible to close the issue with Crimea, there are also problems with the Donbass, the South Stream has shrunk to 2 pipes, and Syria has hung with another headache (if we go out, they will demolish Assad, which will make us look like idiots, but it’s also difficult and useless to sit).

I don't know who came up with the "Ukrainian Blitzkrieg". If we were given real input on the original plan, we would at least indicate that it would be controversial, and that there is a lot to double-check. A lot. Now we're up to our neck in shit, and it's not clear what to do. "Denazification" and "demilitarization" are not clear goals, because they do not have clearly defined parameters by which one can determine the level of accomplishment or non-completion of the task.

Now it remains to be seen if some fucking adviser will convince the top to start a conflict with Europe demanding they reduce sanctions or we declare war. But what if they refuse? I do not rule out that then we will be drawn into a real international conflict, like Hitler in 1939. Then our Z will turn into a new swastika.

Is there a possibility of a local nuclear strike? Yes. Not for military purposes (it will not do anything - this is a defense breakthrough weapon), but with the aim of intimidating others. At the same time, the soil is being prepared to turn everything to Ukraine - [spymaster] Naryshkin and his SVR are now digging to prove that Ukraine secretly created nuclear weapons. They are now hammering on what we have long studied and dismantled: you can’t draw evidence here on your knee. The presence of specialists and uranium (Ukraine has a lot of depleted isotope 238) is nothing. The production cycle is such that you can’t do it without someone noticing. You can’t even make a “dirty” bomb without someone noticing. Ukraine's old nuclear power plants can produce weapons-grade plutonium (plants like REB-1000 produce it in minimal quantities as a “by-product” of the reaction) - but the Americans got the IAEA involved, so sucking on that topic is stupid.

Do you know what will happen in the next week or two? Sanctions will hit us so hard that we will start to miss the hungry 90s. While the stock market was closed, Nabiullina seemed to be taking normal steps - but this is all like plugging a hole in a dam with a finger. It will still break through, and even stronger. Nothing will be decided in 3, 5, or 10 days.

Kadyrov beats his hoof for a reason - they have their own adventures there. He created for himself the image of the most influential and invincible. And if that image falls once, he will be taken down by its own people. He will no longer be the owner of the winning horse.

We go further. Syria. "The guys will hold out, everything will be over in Ukraine - and there in Syria we will again strengthen everything in positions." And now, at any moment, they can wait there for the contingent to run out of resources. Turkey blocks the straits - and to transport supplies there by air is like heating a furnace with money.

Notice that all this is happening at the same time. We don’t even have time to bring everything into one heap. We're beginning this in a situation equivalent to Germany in 1943-1944.

Sometimes I am already lost from overwork. Sometimes it seems that everything is a dream and it's all as it was before.

In prisons, by the way, it will be worse. Now the nuts will begin to tighten until we see bloody ichor, everywhere. To be honest, purely technically, this remains the only chance to keep the situation - we are already in the mode of total mobilization. But you can’t stay in such a regime for a long time, and we have ambiguity with the timing and it will only get worse for now. From mobilization, management always goes astray. You can run a hundred meters in a sprint, but it’s bad to go to a marathon and begin sprinting with all your might. Here we sprinted with the Ukrainian question as if we were running a hundred meters, but we are truly running a cross-country marathon.

And that's what I said very, very briefly about what's going on.

For the cynical, I will only add that I do not believe that Putin will press the red button to destroy the whole world.

Firstly, there is more than one person making a decision, at least someone will balk. There are a lot of people there - there is no "one-man red button".

Secondly, there are some doubts that the nuclear arsenal is even functioning properly. Experience shows that the greater the transparency and control, the easier it is to identify shortcomings. But there is no transparency. I'm not sure if the red button system works as advertised. In addition, the plutonium charge must be changed every 10 years.

Thirdly, and this is the most vile and sad thing, I personally do not believe in the readiness to sacrifice oneself of a person who does not let the members of the Federation Council, but his closest representatives and ministers, come close to him. For fear of the coronavirus or an attack, it doesn't matter. If you are afraid to let the most trusted people near you, then how will you dare to destroy yourself and your loved ones, inclusive?

If anything - ask, but I can not answer for several days. We are in a rush mode, and there are more and more tasks.

In general, our reports are peppy, but everything flies into the clusterfuck"



Honestly? I think I buy this. It fits with what we know and we've got people like Bellingcat feeling confident in its authenticity.

Lots to digest here.


----------



## Kirkhill

An interesting, if propagandized, video on the Georgians.  Some captures of the weapons and suggestions of tactics.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uq1g02

I wonder how long before Georgia acts to regain its lost territories?


----------



## Kirkhill

Arty! Arty! Arty!

And maintaining comms with Starlink?


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uqfl0p


----------



## Kirkhill

And as the article sez -  A few thoughts 

I think a lot of folks here might agree with them.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uq412v


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> An interesting, if propagandized, video on the Georgians.  Some captures of the weapons and suggestions of tactics.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uq1g02
> 
> I wonder how long before Georgia acts to regain its lost territories?


Pretty sure some NLAWs etc will make their way back to Georgia. Maybe even a 'Kildar' will appear...


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Skysix said:


> Pretty sure some NLAWs etc will make their way back to Georgia. Maybe even a 'Kildar' will appear...


I imagine the Foreign Legions from areas under Russia's thumb will head home with a fair amount of parting gifts to help them clean up their own back yards.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Skysix said:


> Pretty sure some NLAWs etc will make their way back to Georgia. Maybe even a 'Kildar' will appear...


Interesting that they are armed with Western small arms, not AKs.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Retired AF Guy said:


> Interesting that they are armed with Western small arms, not AKs.



Having had some experience with Russian 'foreign policy', they've been bucking for NATO membership for a long time so weapon commonality is a good idea:









						Relations with Georgia
					

Georgia is one of NATO’s closest partners. It aspires to join the Alliance. Over time, a broad range of practical cooperation has developed between NATO and Georgia, which supports Georgia’s reform efforts and its goal of Euro-Atlantic integration. The country contributes to the NATO-led...




					www.nato.int


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525971999490809856


----------



## daftandbarmy

Weird effects...



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525721354569383936


----------



## MilEME09

daftandbarmy said:


> Weird effects...
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525721354569383936


Might be Thermite


----------



## Haggis

Retired AF Guy said:


> Interesting that they are armed with Western small arms, not AKs.


Not really.

In 2002 the US ran a program called Georgia Train and Equip (GTEP).  A lot of western hardware found it's way there.  Military infrastructure was improved by the Turks.  Somewhat concurrently, NATO led the Co-Operative Best Effort (CBE) exercise program which began around 1998 and was essentially a small scale version of Op UNIFIER, which was run by NATO nations and included Partnership for Peace (PfP) nations who aspired to NATO membership.  The participating nations were organized into a training battalion with joint NATO/PfP command teams.  Canada hosted CBE 99 at CFB Valcartier and contributed about 35 soldiers to CBE 2002 which was held just outside the Georgian capitol at a former Soviet airbase.  (I was the training battalion's Command Sergeant Major (RSM) in 2002, with a Georgian CO.) From 1998 to 2003 Russia participated in or observed the CBE exercises.

In 2008 Russia attacked Georgia in a dispute over two pro-Russian breakaway Georgian provinces. Form what I heard afterwards, the Georgians fell back on their old Soviet style TTPs and were easily routed by the Russians.


----------



## Skysix

daftandbarmy said:


> Weird effects...
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525721354569383936


Of all the potential targets, a bombed out steel factory is one of the LEAST likely to conflagrate. Glad they didn't use it earlier on inhabited areas.


----------



## FJAG

> Ukraine reservists credit Canadian weapon for taking out a $4.5-million Russian tank​A Russian T-90M tank was destroyed by the Ukrainian Territorial Defense forces using an anti-tank rifle donated by Canada





> Ukraine reservists credit Canadian weapon for taking out a $4.5-million Russian tank
> 
> 
> A Russian T-90M tank was destroyed by the Ukrainian Territorial Defense forces using an anti-tank rifle donated by Canada
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theglobeandmail.com



🍻


----------



## RaceAddict

Skysix said:


> Of all the potential targets, a bombed out steel factory is one of the LEAST likely to conflagrate. Glad they didn't use it earlier on inhabited areas.



Had the same thought: Dropped on an urban/suburban area of structures framed with wood, or even wooden interior walls of brick buildings, that would be a mess of flames in no time. But that factory looks to be primarily a steel and concrete structure... pretty much the opposite of anything likely to light up.


----------



## CBH99

Skysix said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500197460626624513
> English translation of leaked FSB rant from 2 months ago. Is ringing true.
> 
> Bellingcat (award-winning investigative journalists focused on Russia) says in the above thread that their FSB contacts say it sounds plausible. Bellingcat is a reliable source, which makes this leak interesting.
> 
> Even so, grain of salt, etc. Here's a rough translation of the text of the leak:
> 
> 
> 
> "I’ll be honest right away: I have hardly slept all these days. Almost all the time at work my head is floating, as if it were in a fog. And sometimes I'm overworked and convinced that none of this is real.
> 
> To be honest, Pandora's Box is open. A real global horror will begin by the summer - global famine is inevitable (Russia and Ukraine were the main suppliers of grain in the world, this year's harvest will be smaller, and logistical problems will bring the catastrophe to a peak point).
> 
> I can't tell you what guided those at the top when deciding on the operation, but now they are methodically lowering all the dogs on us (the FSB). We are scolded for analytics - this is very much up my wheelhouse, so let me explain.
> 
> Recently, we have been increasingly pressed to customize reports to the requirements of management - I once touched on this topic. All these political consultants, politicians and their retinue, influence teams - all this created strong chaos.
> 
> Most importantly, no one knew that there would be such a war, they hid it from everyone. Here's an example for you: you are asked (conditionally) to calculate the possibility of human rights protection in different conditions, including if prisons were to be hit by meteorites. You specify meteorites as insurance for calculations, they tell you nothing like this will really happen.
> 
> You understand that the report will be just for show, but you need to write in a victorious style so that there are no questions. They ask, why do you have so many problems, did you really work badly? In general, a report is being written that when a meteorite falls, we have everything to eliminate the consequences, we are great, everything is fine. And you concentrate on tasks that are real - we don’t have enough strength anyway. And then suddenly they really throw meteorites and expect that everything will be according to your analytics, which weren't to be taken seriously.
> 
> That is why we have a total clusterfuck - I don’t even want to pick another word. There is no protection from sanctions for the same reason: well, it’s quite possible that [Russian Central Bank head] Nabiullina will be accused of negligence (rather, the switchmen from her team), but what are they to blame for? No one knew that there would be such a war, so no one prepared for such sanctions. This is the reverse side of secrecy: since no one was told, then who could calculate what no one knew about?
> 
> Kadyrov is going crazy. And his anger almost started with us: perhaps even the Ukrainians threw in misinformation that it was we who handed over the routes of Kadyrov's special forces in the first days of the operation. They were marching without cover, they had not yet begun to fight, and they were simply torn to pieces in some places. Off we go: it was the FSB that leaked the routes to the Ukrainians. I do not have such information, but I will still give it a 1-2% chance of being true (it cannot be ruled out at all either).
> 
> The blitzkrieg failed. It is simply impossible to complete the task now: if Zelensky and the authorities were captured in the first 1-3 days, they seized all the key buildings in Kyiv, they gave them the order to surrender - then yes, the resistance would subside. In theory. But what's next? Even with this ideal scenario, there was an unsolvable problem: with whom to negotiate? If we depose Zelensky, well, with whom should we sign agreements?
> 
> If we sign agreements with Zelensky before we depose him, those papers are worth nothing. The opposition party refused to cooperate: Medvedchuk is a coward, he fled. There is a second leader in that party - Boyko, but he refuses to work with us - even his own people will not understand him. They wanted to return Tsarev, but even our pro-Russian people turned against him. Return Yanukovych? But as? If we say that Ukraine is impossible to occupy, then any of our authorities will be killed there in 10 minutes, as we leave.
> 
> Occupy? Where are we going to get so many people? Commandant's offices, military police, counterintelligence, security - even with minimal resistance from the locals, we need 500 thousand or more people. And that's not even counting logistics. There is a rule that by using a high quantity of management to make up for poor quality, you spoil everything. And this, I repeat, would be with the ideal option, which does not exist.
> 
> What now? We cannot announce mobilization for two reasons:
> 
> Large-scale mobilization will undermine the situation inside the country: political, economic, social.
> 
> Our logistics are already overstretched today. Our contingent would be many times larger, and what will we get? Ukraine is a hefty country in terms of territory. And now the level of hatred towards us is going through the roof. Our roads simply won't be able to handle such supply caravans - everything will come to a standstill. And we won't manage to recover - because it's chaos.
> 
> And these two reasons occur at the same time, although even one is enough to break everything off.
> 
> Losses: I don't know how many there are. Nobody knows. For the first two days there was still control, now no one knows what is going on there. You can lose large units in communication. They can be found, or they can be attacked and dissolve. Even the commanders may not know how many of them are running around somewhere nearby, how many died, how many are in captivity. The number of deaths is definitely in the thousands. Maybe 10 thousand, maybe 5, or maybe only 2. Even at the headquarters they don’t know for sure. But it should be closer to 10. And that's without counting the DPR and LPR, they do their own accounting.
> 
> Now, even if Zelensky is killed, captured, nothing will change. Ukraine is like Chechnya in terms of hatred towards us. Even those who were once loyal to us are now against us. Because it was planned from above, because we were told that this wouldn't happen unless we were attacked. Because they explained that it was necessary to create the most credible threat in order to peacefully agree on the right conditions. Because we were initially preparing protests within Ukraine against Zelensky. But these didn't account for our direct entry. Our invasion, to put it simply.
> 
> Further civilian losses will increase exponentially - and resistance to us will also only increase. They already tried to enter the cities with infantry - out of twenty landing groups, only one had a conditional success. Remember the assault on Mosul - after all, this is the rule, it was the same for all countries, nothing new.
> 
> Keep under siege? According to the experience of military conflicts in the same Europe in recent decades (Serbia is the largest testing ground here), cities can be under siege for years, and even function. Humanitarian convoys from Europe will arrive there in a matter of time.
> 
> We have a conditional deadline of June. Conditional - because in June we have no economy left. Nothing will remain. By and large, next week there will be a turning point in one of the sides, simply because the situation is stressed to the breaking point. There are no analytics - it is impossible to calculate the chaos, no one can say anything for sure. Act intuitively, and even on emotions - but this is not poker. Rates will rise, in the hope that suddenly some option will shoot through. The trouble is that we, too, can now miscalculate and lose everything in one move.
> 
> By and large, the country has no way out. There is no option for a possible victory. We 100% repeated the beginning of the last century [the Russo-Japanese War], when we decided to kick weak Japan and get a quick victory... then it turned out that our army was in trouble. They started the war to the bitter end, then they began to take the Bolsheviks for "re-education" into the army - after all, they were outcasts, uninteresting to anyone in the masses. And then, the Bolsheviks, who were not really known to anyone, picked up anti-war slogans and it all started...
> 
> From the pros: we did everything so that even a hint of the mass sending of "penalty boxes" to the front line did not pass. If you send convicts and "socially unreliable" political prisoners there (so that they don't mess with public opinion inside the country) - the morale of the army will simply go into the negative. The enemy is motivated, terribly motivated. He knows how to fight, there are enough middle-level commanders there. There are weapons. They have support. We will simply set a precedent for human loss in the world. And that's it.
> 
> What we are most afraid of: at the top, they act according to the rule of overlapping the old problem with a new problem. Largely for this reason, the Donbass of 2014 began - it was necessary to divert the attention of Westerners from the topic of the Russian spring in Crimea, so the Donbass crisis, it seems, should have drawn all the attention to itself and become the subject of bargaining. But there were even bigger problems. Then they decided to push Erdogan on 4 pipes of the South Stream [a Russian pipeline through Turkey] and we entered Syria - this is after Soleimani lied in order to solve his problems. As a result, it was not possible to close the issue with Crimea, there are also problems with the Donbass, the South Stream has shrunk to 2 pipes, and Syria has hung with another headache (if we go out, they will demolish Assad, which will make us look like idiots, but it’s also difficult and useless to sit).
> 
> I don't know who came up with the "Ukrainian Blitzkrieg". If we were given real input on the original plan, we would at least indicate that it would be controversial, and that there is a lot to double-check. A lot. Now we're up to our neck in shit, and it's not clear what to do. "Denazification" and "demilitarization" are not clear goals, because they do not have clearly defined parameters by which one can determine the level of accomplishment or non-completion of the task.
> 
> Now it remains to be seen if some fucking adviser will convince the top to start a conflict with Europe demanding they reduce sanctions or we declare war. But what if they refuse? I do not rule out that then we will be drawn into a real international conflict, like Hitler in 1939. Then our Z will turn into a new swastika.
> 
> Is there a possibility of a local nuclear strike? Yes. Not for military purposes (it will not do anything - this is a defense breakthrough weapon), but with the aim of intimidating others. At the same time, the soil is being prepared to turn everything to Ukraine - [spymaster] Naryshkin and his SVR are now digging to prove that Ukraine secretly created nuclear weapons. They are now hammering on what we have long studied and dismantled: you can’t draw evidence here on your knee. The presence of specialists and uranium (Ukraine has a lot of depleted isotope 238) is nothing. The production cycle is such that you can’t do it without someone noticing. You can’t even make a “dirty” bomb without someone noticing. Ukraine's old nuclear power plants can produce weapons-grade plutonium (plants like REB-1000 produce it in minimal quantities as a “by-product” of the reaction) - but the Americans got the IAEA involved, so sucking on that topic is stupid.
> 
> Do you know what will happen in the next week or two? Sanctions will hit us so hard that we will start to miss the hungry 90s. While the stock market was closed, Nabiullina seemed to be taking normal steps - but this is all like plugging a hole in a dam with a finger. It will still break through, and even stronger. Nothing will be decided in 3, 5, or 10 days.
> 
> Kadyrov beats his hoof for a reason - they have their own adventures there. He created for himself the image of the most influential and invincible. And if that image falls once, he will be taken down by its own people. He will no longer be the owner of the winning horse.
> 
> We go further. Syria. "The guys will hold out, everything will be over in Ukraine - and there in Syria we will again strengthen everything in positions." And now, at any moment, they can wait there for the contingent to run out of resources. Turkey blocks the straits - and to transport supplies there by air is like heating a furnace with money.
> 
> Notice that all this is happening at the same time. We don’t even have time to bring everything into one heap. We're beginning this in a situation equivalent to Germany in 1943-1944.
> 
> Sometimes I am already lost from overwork. Sometimes it seems that everything is a dream and it's all as it was before.
> 
> In prisons, by the way, it will be worse. Now the nuts will begin to tighten until we see bloody ichor, everywhere. To be honest, purely technically, this remains the only chance to keep the situation - we are already in the mode of total mobilization. But you can’t stay in such a regime for a long time, and we have ambiguity with the timing and it will only get worse for now. From mobilization, management always goes astray. You can run a hundred meters in a sprint, but it’s bad to go to a marathon and begin sprinting with all your might. Here we sprinted with the Ukrainian question as if we were running a hundred meters, but we are truly running a cross-country marathon.
> 
> And that's what I said very, very briefly about what's going on.
> 
> For the cynical, I will only add that I do not believe that Putin will press the red button to destroy the whole world.
> 
> Firstly, there is more than one person making a decision, at least someone will balk. There are a lot of people there - there is no "one-man red button".
> 
> Secondly, there are some doubts that the nuclear arsenal is even functioning properly. Experience shows that the greater the transparency and control, the easier it is to identify shortcomings. But there is no transparency. I'm not sure if the red button system works as advertised. In addition, the plutonium charge must be changed every 10 years.
> 
> Thirdly, and this is the most vile and sad thing, I personally do not believe in the readiness to sacrifice oneself of a person who does not let the members of the Federation Council, but his closest representatives and ministers, come close to him. For fear of the coronavirus or an attack, it doesn't matter. If you are afraid to let the most trusted people near you, then how will you dare to destroy yourself and your loved ones, inclusive?
> 
> If anything - ask, but I can not answer for several days. We are in a rush mode, and there are more and more tasks.
> 
> In general, our reports are peppy, but everything flies into the clusterfuck"
> 
> 
> 
> Honestly? I think I buy this. It fits with what we know and we've got people like Bellingcat feeling confident in its authenticity.
> 
> Lots to digest here.


I mean, we all knew ‘to some extent’ that Russia wasn’t doing all that well.  But I don’t think any of us knew the extent to which they were avoiding an extremely painful, yet inevitable convergence of events at once. 

They really are up s**t creek, and definitely don’t have a paddle.  

Thanks for the read - lots to follow


----------



## McG

It looks like Russia is trying to “shake and bake”


----------



## rmc_wannabe

RaceAddict said:


> Had the same thought: Dropped on an urban/suburban area of structures framed with wood, or even wooden interior walls of brick buildings, that would be a mess of flames in no time. But that factory looks to be primarily a steel and concrete structure... pretty much the opposite of anything likely to light up.


Also to add to that... most homes in Eastern Europe are made of concrete and rebar. There is very little timber used in homebuilding because it's prohibitively expensive compared to North America (where we have matchbox houses springing up like daisies). 

We have a Ukrainian refugee family living with friends here and they're baffled because every squeak and creak makes them feel like the walls and floors are going to cave in.


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> Weird effects...
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525721354569383936



This mob suggested they were "magnesium" rounds.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/upz8eg






						CAT-UXO - 122mm grad 9m22s rocket
					

Information about 122mm grad 9m22s rocket




					cat-uxo.com


----------



## Kirkhill

rmc_wannabe said:


> Also to add to that... most homes in Eastern Europe are made of concrete and rebar. There is very little timber used in homebuilding because it's prohibitively expensive compared to North America (where we have matchbox houses springing up like daisies).
> 
> We have a Ukrainian refugee family living with friends here and they're baffled because every squeak and creak makes them feel like the walls and floors are going to cave in.



As far as Europeans, and Brits, are concerned we live in nicely decorated tar-paper shacks.    

It's not a home if it can't withstand a siege!


----------



## OldSolduer

Kirkhill said:


> As far as Europeans, and Brits, are concerned we live in nicely decorated tar-paper shacks.
> 
> It's not a home if it can't withstand a siege!


Mostly cause trees aren’t as plentiful in Europe as they are here. And people aren’t as plentiful here as they are in Europe


----------



## YZT580

OldSolduer said:


> Mostly cause trees aren’t as plentiful in Europe as they are here. And people aren’t as plentiful here as they are in Europe


and many areas actually prohibit the use of asphalt shingles: they burn too readily.  who would of thunk it.


----------



## Kirkhill

Vlad's winning strategy.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525845043927564291


----------



## TacticalTea

Kirkhill said:


> Vlad's winning strategy.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525845043927564291


False. Improper sourcing.

It actually sprouted almost two weeks ago from the hivemind at r/NonCredibleDefense, more precisely; u/jiSYpqt8


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/uj7grl


----------



## Kirkhill

TacticalTea said:


> False. Improper sourcing.
> 
> It actually sprouted almost two weeks ago from the hivemind at r/NonCredibleDefense, more precisely; u/jiSYpqt8
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/uj7grl



Thanks for the correction - much appreciated.


----------



## tomydoom

Kirkhill said:


> As far as Europeans, and Brits, are concerned we live in nicely decorated tar-paper shacks.
> 
> It's not a home if it can't withstand a siege!


I find even recently built houses over here in Ireland feel pretty draughty compared to Canadian houses. It seems to be nearly impossible to get a house properly warm, even given how mild the winters are. 

So in conclusion siege warfare +1 warm and cozy -1


----------



## The Bread Guy

Just a little reminder from a former UKR foreign minister about "let's not forget that piece of the puzzle about how stuff should unfold AFTER the kinetic stuff's over" (via pro-UKR Crimean media)





						There is no agreement in the West on how Ukraine will deoccupy Donbas, Klimkin said | QIRIM.News
					

There is no agreement in the West on how Ukraine will deoccupy all the territories temporarily occupied by Russia. This opinion was expressed in an interview with “Yevropeyska Pravda” ("European Truth") by former Foreign Minister of Ukraine Pavlo Klimkin. Klimkin believes that the West does not...




					qirim.news
				




And Pravda providing more music for the "Divisiveness Polka" ....


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> Russian BMPT "Terminator" appeared in Ukraine. The combat vehicle was spotted in the vicinity of the settlement of Severodonetsk. The Terminator BMPT is a tracked fire support vehicle with powerful weapons, modern fire control devices and high maneuverability. The tank support combat vehicle is designed to operate as part of tank units in order to defeat anti-tank weapons and enemy manpower.


@Soldier35  The BMP-T needs a supply of fuel to operate, right?

Asking for a friend.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> @Soldier35  The BMP-T needs a supply of fuel to operate, right?
> 
> Asking for a friend.


... or a tractor to help move it?


----------



## KevinB

Soldier35 said:


> Russian BMPT "Terminator" appeared in Ukraine. The combat vehicle was spotted in the vicinity of the settlement of Severodonetsk. The Terminator BMPT is a tracked fire support vehicle with powerful weapons, modern fire control devices and high maneuverability.


When you say modern and powerful, you missed adding ‘for Russia’ 
   It’s a 1980’s western AFV, at best a early Bradley peer. It’s based on a T-72 chassis - so no incredible mobility and the dual 30mm cannon aren’t exactly mounted in the greatest  of turrets and suffer from accuracy at ranges plus 700m 




Soldier35 said:


> The tank support combat vehicle is designed to operate as part of tank units in order to defeat anti-tank weapons and enemy manpower.


Yes you stole the Namer concept after how badly the BMP’s faired in Grozny.   

Too bad it brews up real good from decent anti armor weapons


----------



## lenaitch

YZT580 said:


> and many areas actually prohibit the use of asphalt shingles: they burn too readily.  who would of thunk it.


Back in the '90s a friend in the UK was getting ready to have his retirement home build a learned that asphalt shingles were not allowed.  I didn't know it was a fire issue; I just assumed it was because they were petro-based.  But I was watching one of those 'real estate' shows from the UK and you can still have a thatched roof.  Go figure.


----------



## Kirkhill

tomydoom said:


> I find even recently built houses over here in Ireland feel pretty draughty compared to Canadian houses. It seems to be nearly impossible to get a house properly warm, even given how mild the winters are.
> 
> So in conclusion siege warfare +1 warm and cozy -1



There is indeed the problem of trying to wring the damp out of you clothes when you take them out of the drawer....


----------



## tomydoom

Kirkhill said:


> There is indeed the problem of trying to wring the damp out of you clothes when you take them out of the drawer....


especially in a country where having a drier is not necessarily guaranteed.


----------



## Kirkhill

lenaitch said:


> Back in the '90s a friend in the UK was getting ready to have his retirement home build a learned that asphalt shingles were not allowed.  I didn't know it was a fire issue; I just assumed it was because they were petro-based.  But I was watching one of those 'real estate' shows from the UK and you can still have a thatched roof.  Go figure.



But, do you see, after the landlord has come along and burnt you out for not paying your rent the walls are still standing.  A new roof pole, some reeds, a new door and a lick of whitewash and you're back in business.  With the added benefit that the place is nicely fumigated and pest free for a couple of days.


----------



## MilEME09

Possible river crossing by UA near Rubizhne, according to pro Russian telegram accounts.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1526216832142790658
And some military level trolling of Russia

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1526213375092473857


----------



## RaceAddict

MilEME09 said:


> And some military level trolling of Russia
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1526213375092473857



The Bundeswehr posted this on their Instagram last Wednesday (the day after the pics surfaced of Russia's failed crossing attempt):








						Bundeswehr on Instagram: "Vorbereitung auf die Very High Readiness Joint Task Force 2023 – Die Panzergrenadierbrigade 37 wird im kommenden Jahr Teil der Schnellen Eingreiftruppe der NATO sein. Mit dieser kann das Atlantische Bündnis bei Bedarf schnel
					

Bundeswehr shared a post on Instagram: "Vorbereitung auf die Very High Readiness Joint Task Force 2023 – Die Panzergrenadierbrigade 37 wird im kommenden Jahr Teil der Schnellen Eingreiftruppe der NATO sein. Mit dieser kann das Atlantische Bündnis bei Bedarf schnell und flexibel auf...




					www.instagram.com
				





> Preparing for the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force 2023 – Panzergrenadierbrigade 37 will be part of the NATO Rapid Reaction Force in the coming year. With this, the Atlantic Alliance can react quickly and flexibly to security policy developments if necessary. However, large-scale exercises are required to ensure that all the cogs mesh perfectly between the international combat and support organizations. One of these has now started with the “Wettner Heide” exercise. The first troops have now moved from Klietz and the Senne military training area towards the Bergen and Munster military training areas, where, as a highlight, more than 5,000 soldiers from up to nine nations will train together.
> 
> On the way there, *the associations had to cross the Weser and the Elbe, among other things. These could be overcome via a bridge from the Amphibian M3 rapid-floating bridge or by ferry with the folding floating bridge and motorboat* 3. Heavy equipment was also prepared for rail transport.



The timing was _impeccable_.


----------



## MilEME09

More on the UA crossing east of Kharkiv 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1526228941895258112


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> When you say modern and powerful, you missed adding ‘for Russia’ ...


There's "new" and "USSR 2.0 new"


----------



## Retired AF Guy

rmc_wannabe said:


> Also to add to that... most homes in Eastern Europe are made of concrete and rebar. There is very little timber used in homebuilding because it's prohibitively expensive compared to North America (where we have matchbox houses springing up like daisies).


In the four years I was stationed in Naples, Italy ('99-'03) I only once saw a wooden house; everything else was like you say stone or concrete (being Italy not sure about the rebar). And I used propane for my kitchen stove, dryer and indoor heating (winter time) and I don't mean a gas line. You went down to the dealer and bought these propane tanks, the same as we use for our BBQs, named, appropriately enough "bombas."


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Still unconfirmed but Haartez is reporting that the siege at Mariupol is over and the Ukrainian defenders are being evacuated. More to follow:




> Buses Carrying Ukrainian Servicemen Out of Azovstal Appear to Signal End of Siege





> The unit holed up in what was the last Ukrainian stronghold in Mariupol said it was fulfilling orders to save the lives of troops at the plant, which has become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance to Russia's invasion
> 
> Zen Read
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Reuters
> 
> May. 16, 2022 11:12 PM
> 
> 
> The Ukrainian unit holed up beneath the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol said on Monday its garrison was fulfilling orders to save the lives of troops, an apparent sign that the longest and bloodiest battle of the Ukraine war had come to an end.
> 
> Reuters saw about a dozen buses apparently carrying Ukrainian fighters leaving the plant on Monday. It was not possible to determine how many people were aboard.
> 
> Some 600 fighters have been estimated to be inside the vast Soviet-era plant, including dozens of wounded. "In order to save lives, the entire Mariupol garrison is implementing the approved decision of the Supreme Military Command and hopes for the support of the Ukrainian people," the Azov Regiment said in a social media post.
> 
> It said the defenders of Mariupol, in the southeast, had held out for 82 days, buying time for the rest of Ukraine to battle Russian forces and secure Western arms needed to withstand Russia's assault.
> 
> The steel works was the last Ukrainian-held bastion in the once prosperous port, now in ruins after months of Russian siege that Ukraine says killed tens of thousands of people.
> 
> Since February, Mariupol's devastation has become a symbol both of Ukraine's ability to withstand Russia's invasion, and of Russia's willingness to destroy Ukrainian cities that hold out.
> 
> In a video accompanying the Azov Regiment statement, one of the unit's senior commanders, Denys Prokopenko, said: "The main thing is to realize all the risks, is there a plan B, are you fully committed to that plan which must allow for fulfilling the assigned tasks and preserve the lives and health of personnel?"
> 
> This is the highest level of overseeing troops. All the more so when your decision is endorsed by the highest military command."
> 
> Prokopenko did not spell out what action the defenders were taking. The video was released hours after Russia said it had agreed to evacuate wounded Ukrainian soldiers to a medical facility in the Russian-controlled town of Novoazovsk.
> 
> Apart from the steelworks, Mariupol is entirely in Russian hands after a siege which left residents huddled in basements with no food and water and streets littered with dead bodies.
> 
> 
> Moscow denies having targeted civilians. The United Nations and Red Cross both estimate thousands of civilians died, with the true toll still uncounted.
> 
> The last defenders, including many who were wounded, had been holding out for weeks in bunkers and tunnels built to withstand nuclear war, deep beneath Azovstal, one of the largest metallurgical plants in Europe.
> 
> 
> Civilians were evacuated from inside the plant earlier this month. "An agreement has been reached on the removal of the wounded," Russia's defense ministry said. "A humanitarian corridor has been opened through which wounded Ukrainian servicemen are being taken to a medical facility in Novoazovsk.
> 
> "Ukraine's Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar told Ukrainian television: "Any information can harm the processes that are taking place … Inasmuch as the process is under way, we can't say what's happening right now."
> 
> Earlier, the wife of an Azov Battalion member had described conditions at the plant: "They are in hell. They receive new wounds every day. They are without legs or arms, exhausted, without medicines," Natalia Zaritskaya said.



Link


----------



## The Bread Guy

Retired AF Guy said:


> Still unconfirmed but Haartez is reporting that the siege at Mariupol is over and the Ukrainian defenders are being evacuated ...


Usual grain-of-salt info-machine caveats, but also "confirmed" by RUS state media


----------



## Retired AF Guy

The Bread Guy said:


> Usual grain-of-salt info-machine caveats, but also "confirmed" by RUS state media
> View attachment 70791


Moscow Times  is also saying its an evacuation of wounded soldiers.



> Russia's Defense Ministry said Monday that an agreement has been reached to evacuate injured soldiers from the Azovstal steel plant in Ukraine's port city of Mariupol.
> 
> "An agreement was reached with representatives of the Ukrainian military blocked at Azovstal in Mariupol to evacuate the wounded," the ministry said, adding that a "regime of silence" was introduced for the duration of the evacuation.


----------



## NavyShooter

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1526227977046052864
It's a mine-field, not a mine point....


----------



## NavyShooter

An interesting thread on logistics.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1526270271002378240


----------



## The Bread Guy

Retired AF Guy said:


> Moscow Times  is also saying its an evacuation of wounded soldiers.


This from the UKR President's info-machine as of about an hour ago ....


> ... Regarding the situation in Mariupol.
> 
> Thanks to the actions of the Ukrainian military - the Armed Forces of Ukraine, intelligence, the negotiating team, the International Committee of the Red Cross and the United Nations, we hope that we will be able to save the lives of our guys. Among them are the seriously wounded, they are being provided with medical aid.
> 
> I want to emphasize: Ukraine needs Ukrainian heroes alive. This is our principle. I think that every adequate person will understand these words.
> 
> The operation to rescue the defenders of Mariupol was started by our military and intelligence officers. To bring the boys home, the work continues, and this work needs delicacy. And time ...


... not to mention the _ultimate_ authority, right?


Soldier35 said:


> ... The Azov battalion surrendered in the city of Mariupol. The wounded are being taken out of Azovstal. The commander of the Azov, Denis Prokopenko, published a video message in which he de facto recognized the surrender of the Azov. "The defenders of Mariupol fulfilled the order, despite all the difficulties, they delayed the superior enemy forces for 82 days and allowed the Ukrainian army to regroup, prepare more personnel and receive a large amount of weapons from partner countries. No weapons will work without professionally trained military personnel, which makes them the most valuable element of the army. For the sake of saving lives, the entire Mariupol garrison fulfills the approved decision of the supreme military command and hopes for the support of the Ukrainian people." ...


OP edit to add - this from the UKR's Deputy Defence Minister (Google English below - original in Ukrainian here)


> Together, the GUR of the Ministry of Defense, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the National Guard, and the Border Guard Service launched an operation to rescue defenders of Mariupol blocked on the territory of the Azovstal plant.​2 hours ago | *ID: 67538*
> 
> On May 16, 53 seriously injured people were evacuated from Azovstal to a medical facility in Novoazovsk for medical treatment.
> 
> Another 211 people were taken to Olenivka through the humanitarian corridor.
> 
> An exchange procedure will be carried out to return them home.
> 
> As for the defenders who still remain on the territory of Azovstal, rescue efforts are being carried out by the joint efforts of the above-mentioned agencies.
> 
> Thanks to the defenders of Mariupol, we have gained critical time to form reserves, regroup forces and receive assistance from partners.
> 
> The defenders of Mariupol fulfilled all the tasks set by the command in full.
> 
> Unfortunately, we do not have the opportunity to unblock Azovstal by military means.
> 
> The most important common task of all Ukraine and the whole world is to save the lives of the defenders of Mariupol.
> 
> Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Hanna Malyar.


----------



## NavyShooter

An interesting comparison between RU forces apparent capabilities with small commercial type drones and improvised attack capabilities, vs the somewhat more mature capability that UKR forces have developed and demonstrated:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525563227899314177


----------



## daftandbarmy

If it's in the Daily Mail, it must be true...


Putin's commanders are slaughtering their own wounded soldiers rather than retrieving them from the battlefield for medical treatment, captured Russian soldiers reveal

*Russian lieutenant-colonel is accused of shooting dead multiple injured troops on the battlefield*
*Army intelligence troops captured by Ukraine say they saw the killings of five of their comrades*
*Ukraine has accused Russia of failing to take back its war dead, leaving piles of corpses *
*Ukrainian troops have reached the Russian border to the north of Kharkiv, pushing back Kremlin forces*


Russian commanders are slaughtering their own wounded soldiers instead of retrieving them from the battlefield for treatment, according to Putin's own troops

The chilling account comes from young army intelligence troops captured by the Ukrainians.

They are shown speaking in a video clip made by Ukrainian journalist Volodymyr Zolkin who has chronicled Russian captives for Open Media Ukraine.

One soldier told how commanders had 'finished off their wounded'.

Asked by Zolkin what he meant, the captured Russian said: 'Just like that…a wounded soldier is lying on the ground, and a battalion's commander shoots him dead from a gun.'

He explained: 'It was a young man, he was wounded.

'He was on the ground. He was asked if he could walk, so he was shot dead with a gun.'

They are shown speaking in a video clip made by Ukrainian journalist Volodymyr Zolkin (pictured) who has chronicled Russian captives for Open Media Ukraine

A second soldier said on the video: 'The most important thing - this wasn't a single case. The Lieutenant-Colonel was walking around….'

A third soldier then says: 'He shot four or five like this.'

The second soldier says: 'They were all young men.'

The third added: 'They could have been rescued, given help, taken out of there. He simply shot them dead.'

There was no clarity from the video where in Ukraine the alleged shooting of wounded soldiers by their commander took place.

Nor was it clear from the exchanges where the men had been captured, or in which unit they served.

The video came as Ukraine has accused Russia of failing to take back its dead.

Some corpses are loaded in white body bags on refrigerated train wagons.

Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Ostorozhno Media that the Kremlin has 'no information' on either the bodies of the dead soldiers nor the wounded in Ukraine.

He was told: 'People from all over the country write in social networks that they cannot even get the bodies [of the dead soldiers in Ukraine]. The captives are in trouble too…

'What will we do with our dead and will we exchange captives?'

He replied: 'We do not have this information. It is with the Ministry of Defence


Russians are slaughter their own wounded soldiers, captured troops say


----------



## MilEME09

You know you messed up when the Swiss start going hmmm


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1526097648922550272


----------



## The Bread Guy

If true, wonder if this is why Team USSR 2.0 may not be doing as well as expected?








						Putin involved in war ‘at level of colonel or brigadier’, say western sources
					

President helping determine movement of Russian soldiers, say sources, as head of UK armed forces says Ukraine is winning




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

The Bread Guy said:


> If true, wonder if this is why Team USSR 2.0 may not be doing as well as expected?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Putin involved in war ‘at level of colonel or brigadier’, say western sources
> 
> 
> President helping determine movement of Russian soldiers, say sources, as head of UK armed forces says Ukraine is winning
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com



I assume he's taking leadership cues from Canadian Senior Officers?


----------



## MilEME09

daftandbarmy said:


> I assume he's taking leadership cues from Canadian Senior Officers?


So he is going to rename a few schools, change uniforms, and hair regulations, and expect to solve his man power issue without addressing the root causes? Brilliant!


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> So he is going to rename a few schools, change uniforms, and hair regulations, and expect to solve his man power issue *without addressing the root causes*? Brilliant!



Now, now... I'm sure that there are heroic efforts underway - as we speak - to increase the amount of loyalty required to guarantee a good outcome for our most senior ranks


----------



## MilEME09

So someone decided to take an AT4 home to Russia.

On the plus side for us KIA owners, turns out a Kia can take an AT4 better then a T72


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1526500532592193536


----------



## The Bread Guy

Dude best be careful near open upper-storey windows ....








						Retired colonel speaks out on Russian TV
					

Mikhail Khodarenok gives a rare insight saying the military operation in Ukraine can only get worse.



					www.bbc.com
				



More on this guy here (usual GIGO Wikipedia caveats)





						Mikhail Khodaryonok - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## ueo

daftandbarmy said:


> I assume he's taking leadership cues from Canadian Senior Officers?


Or from his hero Adolph!


----------



## RaceAddict

ueo said:


> Or from his hero Adolph!



The progenitor of 20th century micro-management...


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> So someone decided to take an AT4 home to Russia.
> 
> On the plus side for us KIA owners, turns out a Kia can take an AT4 better then a T72
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1526500532592193536




Delayed launch?


----------



## McG

daftandbarmy said:


> I assume he's taking leadership cues from Canadian Senior Officers?


No. He's taking strategic leadership cues from an Austrian corporal.


----------



## Underway

The Bread Guy said:


> Team USSR 2.0


Shouldn't that be 2SSR?  Just rolls off the tongue better.


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> So someone decided to take an AT4 home to Russia.
> 
> On the plus side for us KIA owners, turns out a Kia can take an AT4 better then a T72
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1526500532592193536


Not sure if ‘live rounds’ or ‘pyrotechnics’.


----------



## PuckChaser

brihard said:


> Not sure if ‘live rounds’ or ‘pyrotechnics’.


I think now it's considered "parts thereof".


----------



## McG

Senate bill will ban 1000+ Russians from entering Canada.








						Ottawa introduces bill to ban Russia's Putin and 1,000 others from entering country
					

Canada cannot ban entry to individuals covered by sanctions without amending the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act




					nationalpost.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Underway said:


> Shouldn't that be 2SSR?  Just rolls off the tongue better.


Almost lyrical, right?


----------



## brihard

PuckChaser said:


> I think now it's considered "parts thereof".


“I have no live rounds, empty Kias, or parts thereof…”


----------



## The Bread Guy

Am I the only one getting the same vibe as that time when all those Daesh 2i/c's were getting whacked one after the other?


----------



## Maxman1

MilEME09 said:


> You know you messed up when the Swiss start going hmmm
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1526097648922550272


----------



## Maxman1

MilEME09 said:


> On the plus side for us KIA owners



According to their badging, it's KИ now.


----------



## Maxman1

Kirkhill said:


> Delayed launch?



Misfire, wait 60.


----------



## Kirkhill

There's been a  lot of talk, at least in Europe about the need to give Putin Off-ramps, to let him save face, to sacrifice a bit of land to stop the suffering of the Ukrainians...  the French are very vocal in this regard.  The Ukrainiians seemingly dont want to play along.  They want the Moskals, the Rashists, the Orcs, gone... by Tuesday.

This chap addresses that discussion.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1526705581368778753


----------



## daftandbarmy

Bring back the Vickers!

Why Ukraine’s army still uses a 100-year-old machinegun​Mocked by Russia, the M1910 nevertheless has advantages over more modern weapons​






Ukrainian forces are fighting off Russian invaders with types of machineguns which entered service when Ukraine was part of a Russian Empire ruled by a tsar. The Maxim M1910 has a steampunk aesthetic: it weighs 68kg and has an armoured gun shield on a distinctive two-wheeled mount allowing it to be towed behind a vehicle or manoeuvred by the gun crew. Russian media mock these antiques and say the Ukrainians use them because they lack modern weapons. The truth is more complex.

As the name suggests, the weapon was introduced in 1910. It is a Russian-made version of the first truly automatic machinegun, which was patented by Hiram Maxim, an American-British inventor, in 1883. Earlier Gatling guns had six barrels which needed to be cranked by hand. In Maxim’s design, the recoil from firing a bullet works the action and loads the next round. One finger on the trigger unleashes a succession of bullets. A water-cooled barrel allows it to keep firing for extended periods. Variants of Maxim’s gun proved a lethally effective tool of slaughter and terror during the late-19th-century heyday of imperialism, allowing small European forces to kill those they were dispossessing by the hundred or thousand. It went on to revolutionise war between European states themselves.

Modern medium machineguns firing the same 7.62mm ammunition as the M1910 are much lighter and more portable—the current Russian PKM weighs less than a fifth as much. However they lack water cooling. Firing continuously even for a minute can cause the barrel to deform, or the weapon to “cook off”, when bullets fire without the trigger being pulled.

In 2016, Ukraine’s defence minister confirmed he had authorised the release of some M1910s from government stocks (the Maxim gun is not standard issue but available when requested, as some territorial defence units have done). An audit in 2012 showed that Ukraine had 35,000 of the weapons in storage, all manufactured between 1920 and 1950.

Only a handful of M1910s have been seen in use since Russia invaded in February, but they have reportedly proven effective in fixed defensive positions and fortifications. As well as water cooling allowing sustained fire, their fixed mounts make them easier to aim. A Ukrainian soldier interviewed in 2016 said the M1910 was highly accurate at one kilometre, effective to three kilometres, and he would not swap it for a more modern weapon. Some M1910s have even been modernised, with images on social media showing vintage machineguns with modern electronic “red dot” sights. The gun is not officially in service with any other army, although Russian-backed separatist militias in the Donbas region also use them, and they have cropped up in conflict zones from Syria to Vietnam.

One element of Russian propaganda may be accurate: Ukraine’s attempt to develop their own copy of the modern Russian PKM in 2011 was not a success. Troops reported severe problems with the Mayak KM, as it is known, including that it was impossible to aim at targets less than 400 metres away because of a fixture obscuring the sight. The head of armaments of Ukraine’s armed forces admitted in 2016 that there were still problems with the gun but the design was being modified. There is still little sign of the Mayak KM in service. Instead Ukraine has imported a number of foreign machineguns, and Ukrainian mechanics are scavenging guns from destroyed Russian vehicles to convert into infantry weapons. And some troops are still using the trusty M1910. Machineguns remain an essential feature of infantry combat. Just as it was a century ago, the M1910 remains deadly.









						Why Ukraine’s army still uses a 100-year-old machinegun
					

It may be mocked by Russia, but the M1910 has advantages over more modern weapons and has reportedly proven effective in Ukraine




					www.economist.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Maxman1 said:


> Misfire, wait 60.



I still have vivid recollections of the graceful ballet work I did on the range when I had an M72 misfire.  Sez here you keep the  weapon pointed down range at the targets while you  try, try and try again.  Damn thing went off at arms length while I was inspecting it and recocking as per the IAs of the day.  Wiedly I still hit the tank I still managed to hit the ass end of an old Centurion.

So, with the new kit , I guess it would be safe to wait 60, drop the dud in the back of your KIA, drive broken roads for two thousand miles and then jam the brakes on....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Donetsk rebel leader (archived link to rebel media) on what's going to happen to troops who surrendered @ Azovstal ....


> ... Fates of Ukrainian militants who surrendered at the Azovstal steelworks will be decided in court, the DPR Head Denis Pushilin said.
> 
> "As for war criminals, and those who are nationalists, if they laid down arms, their fate will be decided in court. No matter what emotions some people might feel, and I know that opinions differ, if the enemy laid down arms, his further fate is decided by a court. If it's a nationalist criminal, it's a tribunal," Pushilin said during his visit to Mariupol.
> 
> He specified that not only commanders, but also those who acted on their commands and who stick to the Nazi ideology in their actions and deeds, especially in relation to civilians, are considered war criminals ...


Amplified by RUS state media (highlights mine)

Rebel courts, RUS investigation?  What could possibly go wrong, right?

Other usual suspects also piping in (Slutsky is the new leader of a RUS hard nationalist party who's replacing this guy who died recently - Slutsky headline is Google English translation from RUS independent media in Russian here)


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1526950933049098240


----------



## OldSolduer

daftandbarmy said:


> Bring back the Vickers!
> 
> Why Ukraine’s army still uses a 100-year-old machinegun​Mocked by Russia, the M1910 nevertheless has advantages over more modern weapons​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian forces are fighting off Russian invaders with types of machineguns which entered service when Ukraine was part of a Russian Empire ruled by a tsar. The Maxim M1910 has a steampunk aesthetic: it weighs 68kg and has an armoured gun shield on a distinctive two-wheeled mount allowing it to be towed behind a vehicle or manoeuvred by the gun crew. Russian media mock these antiques and say the Ukrainians use them because they lack modern weapons. The truth is more complex.
> 
> As the name suggests, the weapon was introduced in 1910. It is a Russian-made version of the first truly automatic machinegun, which was patented by Hiram Maxim, an American-British inventor, in 1883. Earlier Gatling guns had six barrels which needed to be cranked by hand. In Maxim’s design, the recoil from firing a bullet works the action and loads the next round. One finger on the trigger unleashes a succession of bullets. A water-cooled barrel allows it to keep firing for extended periods. Variants of Maxim’s gun proved a lethally effective tool of slaughter and terror during the late-19th-century heyday of imperialism, allowing small European forces to kill those they were dispossessing by the hundred or thousand. It went on to revolutionise war between European states themselves.
> 
> Modern medium machineguns firing the same 7.62mm ammunition as the M1910 are much lighter and more portable—the current Russian PKM weighs less than a fifth as much. However they lack water cooling. Firing continuously even for a minute can cause the barrel to deform, or the weapon to “cook off”, when bullets fire without the trigger being pulled.
> 
> In 2016, Ukraine’s defence minister confirmed he had authorised the release of some M1910s from government stocks (the Maxim gun is not standard issue but available when requested, as some territorial defence units have done). An audit in 2012 showed that Ukraine had 35,000 of the weapons in storage, all manufactured between 1920 and 1950.
> 
> Only a handful of M1910s have been seen in use since Russia invaded in February, but they have reportedly proven effective in fixed defensive positions and fortifications. As well as water cooling allowing sustained fire, their fixed mounts make them easier to aim. A Ukrainian soldier interviewed in 2016 said the M1910 was highly accurate at one kilometre, effective to three kilometres, and he would not swap it for a more modern weapon. Some M1910s have even been modernised, with images on social media showing vintage machineguns with modern electronic “red dot” sights. The gun is not officially in service with any other army, although Russian-backed separatist militias in the Donbas region also use them, and they have cropped up in conflict zones from Syria to Vietnam.
> 
> One element of Russian propaganda may be accurate: Ukraine’s attempt to develop their own copy of the modern Russian PKM in 2011 was not a success. Troops reported severe problems with the Mayak KM, as it is known, including that it was impossible to aim at targets less than 400 metres away because of a fixture obscuring the sight. The head of armaments of Ukraine’s armed forces admitted in 2016 that there were still problems with the gun but the design was being modified. There is still little sign of the Mayak KM in service. Instead Ukraine has imported a number of foreign machineguns, and Ukrainian mechanics are scavenging guns from destroyed Russian vehicles to convert into infantry weapons. And some troops are still using the trusty M1910. Machineguns remain an essential feature of infantry combat. Just as it was a century ago, the M1910 remains deadly.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Why Ukraine’s army still uses a 100-year-old machinegun
> 
> 
> It may be mocked by Russia, but the M1910 has advantages over more modern weapons and has reportedly proven effective in Ukraine
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.economist.com


Old weapons kill you just fine.

No doubt there are a few Moison Nagants on the battlefield as well


----------



## Colin Parkinson

M777 targeted 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1526846820382560256


----------



## MilEME09

Colin Parkinson said:


> M777 targeted
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1526846820382560256


Russia: B3
Ukraine: Miss


----------



## The Bread Guy

Croatia:  Turkey Northwest?

26 April ...








						Croatia to back Finland's Nato bid despite President's threats to block application
					

Croatian President Zoran Milanović had called on his country's parliament to vote against Finland and Sweden joining Nato unless there was electoral reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina.




					yle.fi
				



vs. today


----------



## Kirkhill

Some Military Engineer trolling of the Russians by the Ukrainians.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/usamud

And it may explain how the Ukrainians have crossed the Siversky Donets River and  Reservoir so easily to get to the Vovchansk side.  Of course everything is likely to be easier when you have friends on both sides of the crossing point.


----------



## Kirkhill

And another reason the Russians are having difficulty with the Ukrainians.  The 9:05 from Kyiv-Nizhyn after the power went out.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uscqkh


----------



## Kirkhill

And another one for the Engineers - a demo team.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/usdrhl


----------



## Kirkhill

And on the training front


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/usgiky


----------



## Kirkhill

Excellent article from the LA Times on the psychology of war.



> The servicemen say atrocities aren’t directly ordered from above; instead, they result from a Russian military culture that glorifies ardor in battle, portrays the enemy as inhuman and has no effective system of accountability.
> 
> “Your army is based on professionalism,” said a 27-year-old paratrooper who served alongside U.S. troops as a peacekeeper in Bosnia-Herzegovina. “Our army is based on fervor.”












						War Has No Rules for Russian Forces Fighting in Chechnya
					

Troops admit committing atrocities against guerrillas and civilians. It's part of the military culture of impunity, they say. But many now have troubled consciences. "I remember a Chechen female sniper. We just tore her apart with two armored personnel carriers, having tied her ankles with steel…




					www.latimes.com


----------



## Kirkhill

President Zelenskyy giving a seminar on Information Warfare at Cannes.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uryep9


----------



## OldSolduer

The Bread Guy said:


> Croatia:  Turkey Northwest?
> 
> 26 April ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Croatia to back Finland's Nato bid despite President's threats to block application
> 
> 
> Croatian President Zoran Milanović had called on his country's parliament to vote against Finland and Sweden joining Nato unless there was electoral reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> yle.fi
> 
> 
> 
> 
> vs. today
> View attachment 70833


SO Croatia seeks to expand its influence in the world. I guess 1993 never happened. Jerks


----------



## Kirkhill

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1526222097617502209
Forbes article about Ukraine standing up a new Brigade in Krivyi Rih from scratch with scratch soldiers.

Today's date is May 18.
The video was released circa May 12.  6 Days ago.
The Netherlands announced the donation of the M113/YPR765s on 19 Apr, 23 Days prior to the video being made.




__





						YPR-765 tracked armored vehicles donated by Netherlands are now deployed with Ukraine army | Defense News May 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year
					

government of the Netherlands has delivered YPR-765 tracked APC (Armored Personnel Carrier) vehicles to Ukraine




					www.armyrecognition.com
				





The Territorials got a new General on May 16. Two days ago.




> Watch The Ukrainian Army Form A New Brigade With Donated Tanks
> David Axe
> Forbes Staff
> I write about ships, planes, tanks, drones, missiles and satellites.
> Follow
> May 17, 2022,08:00am EDT
> 
> Listen to article4 minutes
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A Ukrainian soldier and ex-Dutch YPR-765 APCs.
> UKRAINIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY PHOTO
> The Ukrainian army appears to be forming a new mechanized infantry unit. The unit’s equipment, training and location—all evident in an official promotional video—are worth noting.
> 
> 
> The unit is training on mostly donated equipment: ex-Polish T-72M1 tanks, ex-Dutch YPR-765 armored personnel carriers and ex-British and ex-Turkish infantry equipment.
> 
> It’s rehearsing combined-arms operations mixing tanks, APCs and artillery. And it’s doing it in Kryvyi Rih, just north of Russian-occupied Kherson in southern Ukraine.
> 
> Kherson with its vital seaport was one of the first Ukrainian cities Russian forces seized after rolling north from occupied Crimea on Feb. 24. Liberating Kherson is a top priority in Kyiv.
> 
> While Ukrainian forces are counterattacking along the southern front, they’re not yet driving straight for Kherson. A lack of fresh heavy forces could explain why. One of the only undamaged Ukrainian formations in the southern sector, the reserve 5th Tank Brigade, is part of the defensive garrison in Odesa, Ukraine’s most important seaport, 75 miles west of Kherson.
> 
> If the 5th Tank isn’t going to ride east to jumpstart a Kherson counteroffensive, Ukrainian commanders in the sector are going to have to draw heavy forces from somewhere else. The Kryvyi Rih training video is a hint that those forces already are forming.
> 
> The video, which circulated on social media starting around May 12, depicts Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrsky, head of the Kyiv’s ground forces, observing Ukrainian army soldiers—many of them young and obviously inexperienced—practicing small-unit tactics with a mix of donated and Ukrainian vehicles.
> 
> Troopers wearing Turkish-style body armor and British-style helmets disembark from YPR-765s, which are Dutch variants of the classic American M-113 APC. Tank crews fire the 125-millimeter main guns of their uprated T-72M1s. Poland has pledged more than 200 of these T-72s to Ukraine as part of a larger arms package.
> 
> Artillery gunners maneuver and fire their 2S1 self-propelled 122-millimeter howitzers and 2A36 towed 152-millimeter howitzers. These at least aren’t unusual. Both types are standard across the Ukrainian armed forces.
> 
> It’s an eclectic mix of weaponry, overall—and it speaks to the wide range of foreign support for Ukraine’s armed forces, as well as those forces’ growing need for weaponry as tens of thousands of reservists complete their training and form new units.
> 
> A brigade riding in a mix of Polish, Dutch and Ukrainian vehicles is likely to run into logistical problems as maintainers struggle to source a frankly bizarre mix of spare parts.
> 
> But coherent training is more important than a coherent table of organization and equipment is, as the Russian army repeatedly has demonstrated in its own faltering Ukraine campaign.
> 
> Russian units use Russian weapons, across the board. But that materiel simplicity hasn’t helped the Russians to cross a river while under fire, safeguard their command posts or sustain a local attack over a distance of more than a few miles.
> 
> It’s unclear which unit the training video depicts. The videographers obviously took pains not to show the trainees’ unit patches. It’s possible it’s a new reserve brigade. It’s equally possible the brigade is preparing to roll south in order to join an older reserve unit, the 60th Infantry Brigade, which has been fighting the Russians around Kherson since early in the current war.
> 
> The timing of that deployment is critical. The arrival of a fresh mechanized brigade with a hundred tanks plus APCs, artillery and infantry could be the trigger for a more determined Ukrainian counteroffensive.



24567827423b









						DISPATCH: Kyiv’s Territorial Defense Troops Deploy to Eastern Front
					

The Ukrainians have won the Battle of Kyiv. Some of Kyiv’s territorial defense soldiers have repositioned to defend against a new offensive.




					coffeeordie.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

This missive from Mariupol's occupation city council is at least honest (Google translation from Telegram post in Russian) -- highlights mine ....

I'll take "Preventive Destruction" for $600, Alex ....


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1526222097617502209
> Forbes article about Ukraine standing up a new Brigade in Krivyi Rih from scratch with scratch soldiers.
> 
> Today's date is May 18.
> The video was released circa May 12.  6 Days ago.
> The Netherlands announced the donation of the M113/YPR765s on 19 Apr, 23 Days prior to the video being made.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> YPR-765 tracked armored vehicles donated by Netherlands are now deployed with Ukraine army | Defense News May 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year
> 
> 
> government of the Netherlands has delivered YPR-765 tracked APC (Armored Personnel Carrier) vehicles to Ukraine
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.armyrecognition.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Territorials got a new General on May 16. Two days ago.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 24567827423b
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> DISPATCH: Kyiv’s Territorial Defense Troops Deploy to Eastern Front
> 
> 
> The Ukrainians have won the Battle of Kyiv. Some of Kyiv’s territorial defense soldiers have repositioned to defend against a new offensive.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> coffeeordie.com


I anticipated Ukraine forming new brigades there last week, can't wait to see this June counter attack they are planning.


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527163546781483008


----------



## The Bread Guy

Word from RUS regional media that about 90 Azovstal prisoners have been taken to Russia (most are reportedly in occupied Ukraine facilities) (Google translation attached - archive link of original article in Russian).  If the sources are to be believed, it looks like "prisoners of war who are convicted of participating in the Azov regiment recognized by Russia as extremist and banned, will be tried in the (RUS) Southern District Military Court."


> Some of the Ukrainian prisoners of war who surrendered to the Russian army after 82 days of defense of the Mariupol Azovstal plant were taken to the city of Taganrog, a source in the power structures of the Rostov region told a 161.RU correspondent.
> 
> - 89 people were brought to us, almost all of them are combatants (which means they are covered by the Geneva Convention. - _Approx. ed._ ). <...> From Taganrog they will be distributed further. In the region, too, our part will remain. They are now an important object [for exchange], — said the source.
> 
> 
> According to Reuters with reference to the Ukrainian authorities, on May 16 alone, more than 250 Azovstal defenders surrendered to the Russian military. According to correspondents of the British edition, 53 wounded Ukrainians were taken to a hospital in the Russian-controlled city of Novoazovsk, others were taken to the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that by the evening of May 17, the number of those who had surrendered had reached 954 people.
> 
> The source of 161.RU claims that some Ukrainians brought to Taganrog were found with chevrons of the SS divisions “Galicia” and “Totenkopf”.
> 
> The head of the Rostov Public Monitoring Commission, Igor Omelchenko, in a commentary to 161.RU, suggested that the Ukrainian prisoners were placed in the Taganrog SIZO-2 , which, according to him, was released from those arrested in the spring. He called the information that the Ukrainians could be taken to the Rostov pre-trial detention center on Maxim Gorky Street unlikely.
> 
> According to an editorial source in law enforcement agencies, prisoners of war who are convicted of participating in the Azov regiment recognized by Russia as extremist and banned, will be tried in the Southern District Military Court.


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> Today the first trial will be held in the city of Rostov-on-Don over the soldiers of the Aidar battalion who surrendered. Denis Maruga, who took part in the explosion of the bridge in 2019, as a result of which people were killed, will appear before the court. Muryga personally confessed to this during the interrogation. In total, 1,700 soldiers of the Ukrainian army have already surrendered from the Azovstal plant.




@Soldier35 many people are surprised that Russian soldiers just don’t follow their doctrine and use ‘беспредел’ (lawlessness) to kill this man.  

Ignoring the Laws of Armed Conflict seems to have worked to Russia’s favour in Chechnya, Georgia and we have seen them try to intimidate Ukrainians more recently in cities such as Буча, by behaving like violent animals.


----------



## RangerRay

The Bread Guy said:


> Croatia:  Turkey Northwest?
> 
> 26 April ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Croatia to back Finland's Nato bid despite President's threats to block application
> 
> 
> Croatian President Zoran Milanović had called on his country's parliament to vote against Finland and Sweden joining Nato unless there was electoral reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> yle.fi
> 
> 
> 
> 
> vs. today
> View attachment 70833


Can we kick Turkey and Croatia out of NATO and swap them for Sweden and Finland?


----------



## The Bread Guy

RangerRay said:


> Can we kick Turkey and Croatia out of NATO and swap them for Sweden and Finland?


First vs. second draft picks?


----------



## Weinie

The Bread Guy said:


> First vs. second draft picks?


Finland, Sweden, and a bag of pucks.


----------



## Blackadder1916

Soldier35 said:


> . . . . Russian kamikaze drones "KUB-UAV" were used for the strike. After the drone strike, the artillery battery of Ukraine went into the forest, after which they were hit by Russian artillery. The video is cropped *due to poor quality*



This descriptive could apply generally to the full range of Russian military operations.


----------



## Spencer100

Blackadder1916 said:


> This descriptive could apply generally to the full range of Russian military operations.


funny thing with the tank video it has sounds of the gun firing.  That totally added in edit as the drone filming is not picking up that sound.


----------



## Spencer100

I not in agreement that the Ukrainians can never win.  But keeping Russia and China apart is good idea.  His use of historical facts to predict the outcome is interesting but may not come to past.



			https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2022/05/19/even_now_the_strategic_priority_must_be_to_split_russia_from_china_not_to_defeat_putin_833135.html?mc_cid=c6ad61020e&mc_eid=420970a19a
		


I posted this as it was on an American site but by a Canadian.  

Also there is talk of Siberian separatist in Russia.....Something that could really change the game.  I could see China backing them if the central government in Moscow gets weaker.


----------



## Kirkhill

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527268442725916673


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Kirkhill said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527268442725916673


I'd chirp them out, but I remember the Mad Max Engineering vehicles we fielded during the Battle of Panjwaii....


----------



## RaceAddict

Kirkhill said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527268442725916673



Is that... a... pillow?


----------



## MilEME09

RaceAddict said:


> Is that... a... pillow?


Two of them, maybe because of vibration?


----------



## NavyShooter

Or maybe it goes with the stolen couch (and washing machine) in the back seat?


----------



## The Bread Guy

СССР 2.0 Информационная машина (with a cc to @Soldier35),  you should get your messages straight.  

Your MoD info machine says this (almost word-for-word on daily "humanitarian" briefings) ....

... while fanboy media Pravda says this:

So, how is Ukraine keeping ships from leaving if Team USSR 2.0 says they can help them get through if EU sanctions are lifted?

Asking for a friend ...


----------



## Maxman1

RaceAddict said:


> Is that... a... pillow?



Maybe it's a MyPillow.


----------



## suffolkowner

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1526966695046299648
new to Ukraine at the front


----------



## Kirkhill

The Russian view of operations - Igor Strelkov






						Igor Strelkov - 19 May Doomdate - JustPaste.it
					






					justpaste.it
				





__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527358355563773957


----------



## The Bread Guy

Heh, heh, heh ...








						This Hacktivist Site Lets You Prank Call Russian Officials
					

To protest the war in Ukraine, WasteRussianTime.today auto-dials Russian government officials, connects them to each other, and lets you listen in to their confusion.




					www.wired.com


----------



## CBH99

Kirkhill said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527268442725916673


Good to see someone was paying attention to the ISIS mechanics in the shops, who in turn paid attention to Mad Max…


----------



## CBH99

rmc_wannabe said:


> I'd chirp them out, but I remember the Mad Max Engineering vehicles we fielded during the Battle of Panjwaii....


Edit to my previous reference to Mad Max…

Yupp.  Us too.  Totally forgot about those things until now.  

Cancel my Mad Max / ISIS reference. 

 (Gawd, did we really have to resort to Mad Max-ery along with ISIS and mirror universe Russia?  We did, didn’t we 🤦🏼‍♂️)


----------



## CBH99

OldSolduer said:


> SO Croatia seeks to expand its influence in the world. I guess 1993 never happened. Jerks


I’m sorry… but that first sentence had me in chuckles for some reason.  

Croatia wants to expand its influence in the world?  Not to sound like a total dick, but what influence is it trying to expand?  🤷🏼‍♂️


----------



## rmc_wannabe

CBH99 said:


> Edit to my previous reference to Mad Max…
> 
> Yupp.  Us too.  Totally forgot about those things until now.
> 
> Cancel my Mad Max / ISIS reference.
> 
> (Gawd, did we really have to resort to Mad Max-ery along with ISIS and mirror universe Russia?  We did, didn’t we 🤦🏼‍♂️)


Necessity is the mother of invention, and that necessity usually stems from someone grossly underestimating the need 😉


----------



## Good2Golf

CBH99 said:


> Croatia wants to expand its influence in the world? Not to sound like a total dick, but what influence is it trying to expand? 🤷🏼‍♂️



Convening?


----------



## Colin Parkinson

A Russian Defence analyst laying out his concerns will being careful not to break the law.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1526293852704890882


----------



## MilEME09

I cant make this up if i tried....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527454308115042305


----------



## RaceAddict

Colin Parkinson said:


> A Russian Defence analyst laying out his concerns will being careful not to break the law.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1526293852704890882



The mediator... is she playing devil's advocate? Or is she really _that _ignorant to the situation at hand?


----------



## brihard

Soldier35 said:


> Video of the heroic battle of the Russian T-80BVM tank in Ukraine in the Kharkov region. On the video, you can see that the Russian T-80 tank was damaged, but it continues to fight, the Russian tank is attacked from all sides by Ukrainian soldiers with grenade launchers, but it does not leave the battlefield.


Hey, so why was your tank racing around all alone like that? What happened to its friends? The rest of its BTG? Were they dumb, lost, or just the last ones left? 

Invading another country, watching your friends die, and charging your tank down canalizing ground through fire doesn’t make you a hero, it just make you the idiots who took the longest to die.


----------



## daftandbarmy

brihard said:


> Hey, so why was your tank racing around all alone like that? What happened to its friends? The rest of its BTG? Were they dumb, lost, or just the last ones left?
> 
> Invading another country, watching your friends die, and charging your tank down canalizing ground through fire doesn’t make you a hero, it just make you the idiots who took the longest to die.



Probably the Squadron's buddy fucker


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> I cant make this up if i tried....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527454308115042305


To be fair, you can’t have an ANFO explosion without the FO part…


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Heh, heh, heh ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This Hacktivist Site Lets You Prank Call Russian Officials
> 
> 
> To protest the war in Ukraine, WasteRussianTime.today auto-dials Russian government officials, connects them to each other, and lets you listen in to their confusion.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.wired.com


The site (call feature) seems to be down right now, but it says the over 5,000 calls have been made.


----------



## Good2Golf

daftandbarmy said:


> Probably the Squadron's buddy fucker


----------



## daftandbarmy

Good2Golf said:


> To be fair, you can’t have an ANFO explosion without the FO part…View attachment 70860



The Lebanese seemed to have figured out how to cook it off though:

What Is Ammonium Nitrate, the Chemical That Exploded in Beirut?​
_On August 4, 2020, the Lebanese capital Beirut experienced a massive explosion caused by more than 2,700 tonnes of ammonium nitrate improperly stored near the city’s cargo port. It was one of the largest non-nuclear blasts in history, which killed 218 people, injured 7,000 and displaced over 300,000. This story from August 5, 2020 is being republished on the one year anniversary of the disaster._

The Lebanese capital Beirut was rocked on Tuesday evening local time by an explosion that has killed at least 78 people and injured thousands more.

The country’s prime minister Hassan Diab said the blast was caused by around 2,700 tonnes of ammonium nitrate stored near the city’s cargo port. Video footage appears to show a fire burning nearby before the blast.









						What Is Ammonium Nitrate, the Chemical That Exploded in Beirut?
					

The blast injured thousands and killed at least 78 people




					www.scientificamerican.com


----------



## Good2Golf

But there was a reducer (combustible) present as well, so that the rapid release of oxygen had something to detonate.  The AN was hanging around for 6+ years, so who the heck knows what went on.


----------



## Maxman1

The Bread Guy said:


> Heh, heh, heh ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This Hacktivist Site Lets You Prank Call Russian Officials
> 
> 
> To protest the war in Ukraine, WasteRussianTime.today auto-dials Russian government officials, connects them to each other, and lets you listen in to their confusion.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.wired.com



Maybe they have pipe tobacco.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> I cant make this up if i tried....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527454308115042305


You think they'd have known the risks, given prominent coverage of the _other _side using it via the RUS info-machine ....

One man's chemical weapon is another's sandbag fill, I guess ....


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> A soldier of Ukraine spoke about the catastrophic state of affairs at the front and the consequences of Russian artillery strikes and the Grad MLRS in Ukraine. The combat work of the MLRS "Grad" of Russia in Ukraine and the story of a serviceman of the Armed Forces of Ukraine further in the video. A short translation of the Ukrainian soldier's speech about the situation at the front. “The strikes of Russian artillery and the Grad MLRS go exactly where they need to, everything is in smoke, everything is constantly under fire, everything is destroyed, the trenches are broken, there is constant shelling, there is no support for Ukrainian artillery yet, they have been shelling for three days already, there is no reaction from Ukrainian artillery everything is falling apart"



@Soldier35  I think the UAF is more concerned with airborne RF T-90 turrets.  There are so many of them flying through the air, someone could get hurt quite badly if one landed on them.


----------



## The Bread Guy

It appears to be official (AFP via RUS independent media):  _"Ukraine Orders End to Defense of Mariupol"_...


> ... Russia released a video appearing to show exhausted Ukrainian soldiers trudging out of the sprawling steel plant, after weeks during which the besieged defenders and civilians huddled in tunnels, enduring shortages of food, water and medicine.
> 
> "The higher military command has given the order to save the lives of the soldiers of our garrison and to stop defending the city," Azov battalion commander Denys Prokopenko said in a video on Telegram.
> 
> He said efforts continued to remove killed fighters from the plant.
> 
> "I now hope that soon, the families and all of Ukraine will be able to bury their fighters with honors," he said.
> 
> Ukraine is hoping to exchange the surrendering Azovstal soldiers for Russian prisoners. But in Donetsk, the pro-Kremlin authorities are in turn threatening to put some of them on trial ...


----------



## suffolkowner

__





						Institute for the Study of War
					

Ukrainian military officials reported that some Russian troops withdrawn from the Kharkiv City axis have redeployed to western Donetsk Oblast on May 19. The Ukrainian General Staff said that 260 servicemen withdrawn from the Kharkiv City axis arrived to




					www.understandingwar.org
				




At this point for all the doom and gloom with respect to Russian efforts they can realistically lay claim to 

1. getting rid of the Nazi-Azov Battalion
2. establishing a land corridor to Crimea
3. doing extensive damage to Ukraines MIC

What more can they hope to accomplish and hold onto? Is this the peak of their war gains? Can they sustain this operational tempo with respect to manpower and equipment?

I don't think they can as generally the initial conquering effort is the easy part of the war campaign and even well supplied and relatively well led efforts have been crippled by the cost of ongoing insurgency. Already the Russians have lost at a minimum of 25% of their tank force and maybe as much as 50% with their BTG's reduced by half since their peak suggesting that casualties are equally as high. Replacement equipment and personel are unlikely to be of equivalent quality. 

I'm curious what is the way out for Russia and Ukraine


----------



## daftandbarmy

suffolkowner said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Institute for the Study of War
> 
> 
> Ukrainian military officials reported that some Russian troops withdrawn from the Kharkiv City axis have redeployed to western Donetsk Oblast on May 19. The Ukrainian General Staff said that 260 servicemen withdrawn from the Kharkiv City axis arrived to
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.understandingwar.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> At this point for all the doom and gloom with respect to Russian efforts they can realistically lay claim to
> 
> 1. getting rid of the Nazi-Azov Battalion
> 2. establishing a land corridor to Crimea
> 3. doing extensive damage to Ukraines MIC
> 
> What more can they hope to accomplish and hold onto? Is this the peak of their war gains? Can they sustain this operational tempo with respect to manpower and equipment?
> 
> I don't think they can as generally the initial conquering effort is the easy part of the war campaign and even well supplied and relatively well led efforts have been crippled by the cost of ongoing insurgency. Already the Russians have lost at a minimum of 25% of their tank force and maybe as much as 50% with their BTG's reduced by half since their peak suggesting that casualties are equally as high. Replacement equipment and personel are unlikely to be of equivalent quality.
> 
> I'm curious what is the way out for Russia and Ukraine



Keep saying 'I told you so' seems like a good option


----------



## TheProfessional

Colin Parkinson said:


> A Russian Defence analyst laying out his concerns will being careful not to break the law.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1526293852704890882


You can tell that man knows this war is a crock of shit and wants to warn the people of Russia but has to tread very carefully because if he says the wrong thing on air he could end up imprisoned. My hat goes off to him.


----------



## suffolkowner

daftandbarmy said:


> Keep saying 'I told you so' seems like a good option
> 
> View attachment 70863





			https://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2022/05/20/the-total-combat-losses-of-the-enemy-from-24-02-to-20-05/
		


The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02 to 20.05 were approximately:

personnel ‒ about 28700 (+200) persons were liquidated,

tanks ‒ 1263 (+9),

APV ‒ 3090 (+27),

artillery systems – 596 (+1),

MLRS ‒ 200 (+1),

Anti-aircraft warfare systems ‒ 93 (+0),

aircraft – 204 (+1),

helicopters – 168 (+1),

UAV operational-tactical level ‒ 460 (+5),

cruise missiles ‒ 103 (+0),

warships / boats ‒ 13 (+0),

vehicles and fuel tanks ‒ 2162 (+5),

special equipment ‒ 43 (+0).

Yeah I don't know who thought it was a good idea in the first place. I don't think there would be any appetite for any NATO led mission to suffer almost 10,000 casualties a month even if you half that its insane to me


----------



## rmc_wannabe

suffolkowner said:


> At this point for all the doom and gloom with respect to Russian efforts they can realistically lay claim to
> 
> 1. getting rid of the Nazi-Azov Battalion - They said the same thing about the Canadian Airborne Regiment. It just was given a different name, new colour beret, and started screening the hell out of folks so that any baggage from the old unit was no longer an issue.
> 2. establishing a land corridor to Crimea - For now. Wait for the counter offensive once the northern flank is secured. ...
> 3. doing extensive damage to Ukraines MIC - Not a problem when you have the Lend Lease program cranking out capabilities faster than before this war started.





suffolkowner said:


> What more can they hope to accomplish and hold onto? Is this the peak of their war gains? Can they sustain this operational tempo with respect to manpower and equipment?


They can't, and are hoping Ukraine wants peace more than they want retribution. They're at the point now where they are spreading their forces too thin and will end up getting flattened if they don't find a way to bring Ukraine to the bargaining table. I think their position though is getting weaker and weaker.



suffolkowner said:


> I don't think they can as generally the initial conquering effort is the easy part of the war campaign and even well supplied and relatively well led efforts have been crippled by the cost of ongoing insurgency. Already the Russians have lost at a minimum of 25% of their tank force and maybe as much as 50% with their BTG's reduced by half since their peak suggesting that casualties are equally as high. Replacement equipment and personel are unlikely to be of equivalent quality.
> 
> I'm curious what is the way out for Russia and Ukraine


Right now, the only way out for Russia is on Ukraine's good graces, and that most likely will be at the request and influence of weak European powers that are feeling the pinch due to energy shortages. Ukraine should by all accounts sweep what's left of the Russian BTGs in the next few months and push eastward. I don't see any possibility for the Russians to maintain a presence, let alone gain more ground in any of the occupied territories in the next 6 months. This war has crippled them.


----------



## suffolkowner

rmc_wannabe said:


> They can't, and are hoping Ukraine wants peace more than they want retribution. They're at the point now where they are spreading their forces too thin and will end up getting flattened if they don't find a way to bring Ukraine to the bargaining table. I think their position though is getting weaker and weaker.
> 
> 
> Right now, the only way out for Russia is on Ukraine's good graces, and that most likely will be at the request and influence of weak European powers that are feeling the pinch due to energy shortages. Ukraine should by all accounts sweep what's left of the Russian BTGs in the next few months and push eastward. I don't see any possibility for the Russians to maintain a presence, let alone gain more ground in any of the occupied territories in the next 6 months. This war has crippled them.


Thats been my opinion too but I think Putin has trapped himself here and has no easy out. The key for Ukraine will be to retake Kherson and Zaporizhia. From what I have read the main Ukrainian push will start closer to August? Why the delay? The need to bring reserves up to speed? Integrate new equipment?


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> Thats been my opinion too but I think Putin has trapped himself here and has no easy out. The key for Ukraine will be to retake Kherson and Zaporizhia. From what I have read the main Ukrainian push will start closer to August? Why the delay? The need to bring reserves up to speed? Integrate new equipment?


troops take time to train properly. Rumor is ukraine may have a few new brigades ready for action in june, so right now while they are doing limited counter attacks, they need to hold the line for now. The east and the south are two completely different battlefields. In the south, it is a lot of open farm land, this is armoured warfare counter, something ukraine doesn't have a lot of, so they are quickly pushing western kit into service and training atleast 1 new brigade has been publicly acknowledged. In the east, it is a lot of hills, mountains, rivers and thick forests, ideal infantry territory, which is great for Ukraine. 

What, Ukraine needs now to turn this fully in their favour is air power, domination of the air, or atleast local superiority where they want it, would go a long way to defeating Russian forces.


----------



## Kirkhill

There was some commentary suggesting that the US was not supplying all the M777 capabilities it could.  This was largely due to a couple of photos of M777s in action missing some of their EIS. This was picked up by the Pro-Russian press. (or perhaps the anti-US press).

The missing kit is highlighted here.  The Digital Fire Control System has been supplied by the US and is in use by the Ukrainians.



> [Confirmed] UA is using the M777 howitzer digital fire-control system to provide navigation, pointing and self-location, allowing it to be put into action quickly / Photo credit: The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine






__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/utw66b


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527548593455910914


----------



## YZT580

would it be possible to provide escort and minesweeping for civilian bulk carriers using the NATO Black Sea fleet without actually entering the war.  Said fleet to be able to fire to protect those escorted and defend themselves but in all other instances not step between Ukraine and Russia (sorta a no fly zone in the sea)


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> The east and the south are two completely different battlefields. In the south, it is a lot of open farm land, this is armoured warfare counter, something ukraine doesn't have a lot of


Has Ukraine lost a lot of armour so far in the war? I haven't seen good info on this. In the 3 years prior to the invasion they refurbished over 500 tanks alone so it doesn't seem like something that should be a limiting factor to me


----------



## Retired AF Guy

suffolkowner said:


> Thats been my opinion too but I think Putin has trapped himself here and has no easy out. The key for Ukraine will be to retake Kherson and Zaporizhia. From what I have read the main Ukrainian push will start closer to August? Why the delay? The need to bring reserves up to speed? Integrate new equipment?


Favourable weather?


----------



## brihard

suffolkowner said:


> Has Ukraine lost a lot of armour so far in the war? I haven't seen good info on this. In the 3 years prior to the invasion they refurbished over 500 tanks alone so it doesn't seem like something that should be a limiting factor to me


I cannot imagine that Ukraine hasn’t lost a lot of armour. It’s been an intense fight. What we don’t have a measure of is ratios compared to Russia, as well as the ability to replenish and replace. Ukraine has gotten some significant foreign contributions, albeit, today, still ex-Soviet junk no better than the funeral pyres Russia is driving into battle. Ukraine is probably using its armour better though.

I’d be more interested in how well Ukraine is doing in terms of retaining experienced AFV crews.


----------



## The Bread Guy

suffolkowner said:


> Has Ukraine lost a lot of armour so far in the war? I haven't seen good info on this. In the 3 years prior to the invasion they refurbished over 500 tanks alone so it doesn't seem like something that should be a limiting factor to me


One data point (with HUGE grain of salt & usual caveats) to start triangulating from, from today's RUS MoD info-machine brief (safe PDF attached)


> ... In total, 172 Ukrainian aircraft and 125 helicopters, 952 unmanned aerial vehicles, 314 anti-aircraft missile systems, *3,168 tanks and other armored combat vehicles*, 396 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,571 field artillery and mortars, as well as 3,039 units of special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation.


Rough estimate, based on 20 April's RUS MoD info-machine figures (also attached) ....


> ... In total, 140 aircraft and 106 helicopters, 498 unmanned aerial vehicles, 254 anti-aircraft missile systems, *2,397 tanks and other armored combat vehicles*, 261 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,038 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,244 units of special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.


... is that over the past 31 days, Team USSR 2.0 claims to have been taking out just under 25 (24.9) Team Zelensky tanks/other armored combat vehicles a day.

If you want to start the alleged RUS counter at zero as of 24 Feb, Team USSR 2.0's claiming a campaign average of more than 36 (36.8) tanks/other armored combat vehicles a day.


----------



## GR66

The Bread Guy said:


> One data point (with HUGE grain of salt & usual caveats) to start triangulating from, from today's RUS MoD info-machine brief (safe PDF attached)
> 
> Rough estimate, based on 20 April's RUS MoD info-machine figures (also attached) ....
> 
> ... is that over the past 31 days, Team USSR 2.0 claims to have been taking out just under 25 (24.9) Team Zelensky tanks/other armored combat vehicles a day.
> 
> If you want to start the alleged RUS counter at zero as of 24 Feb, Team USSR 2.0's claiming a campaign average of more than 36 (36.8) tanks/other armored combat vehicles a day.


Oryx Blog shows current confirmed (documented) Ukrainian tank losses to date as:

Tanks (169, of which destroyed: 73, damaged: 3, abandoned: 8, captured: 85)​


----------



## KevinB

GR66 said:


> Oryx Blog shows current confirmed (documented) Ukrainian tank losses to date as:
> 
> Tanks (169, of which destroyed: 73, damaged: 3, abandoned: 8, captured: 85)​


Confirmed losses are always significantly lower than actual losses in this conflict. 

The other issue I have with any of the OS reports for damaged, abandoned and captured tanks is the lack of background.  
  Abandoned is an interesting term, and without context is fairly meaningless.  Where they abandoned by desertion, injured crew, immobilized due to damage, or lack of supplies (POL, ammunition, or food for the crew).  
 Similarly captured tanks don’t tel much of a tale, where they abandoned tanks (for any reason above), or where they captured in combat…


----------



## The Bread Guy

GR66 said:


> Oryx Blog shows current confirmed (documented) Ukrainian tank losses to date as:
> 
> Tanks (169, of which destroyed: 73, damaged: 3, abandoned: 8, captured: 85)​


So, like casualty figures, that gives us a bracketing range, so to speak - thanks!

To compare Oryx apples to RUS info-machine apples (at least roughly), Oryx reports *249 tanks & AFVs (151 destroyed, 3 (tks) damaged, 12 abandoned, 134 captured).*


----------



## Kirkhill

GR66 said:


> Oryx Blog shows current confirmed (documented) Ukrainian tank losses to date as:
> 
> Tanks (169, of which destroyed: 73, damaged: 3, abandoned: 8, captured: 85)​


*From the same source - Russian losses*​Tanks (684, of which destroyed: 368, damaged: 21, abandoned: 52, captured: 241)​

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527646104552189964
I think the relevant info, given comparable methodology, is the ratio between the two sides.

5 Russian tanks destroyed for every 1 Ukrainian tank
Dug in Ukrainians on the defence vs Russians on the attack in the open.

3 Russian tanks abandoned or captured for every 1 Ukrainian tank.



Perhaps more interesting

93 Ukrainian tanks captured or abandoned for every 73 destroyed -  1.3 : 1
293 Russian tanks captured or abandoned for every 368 destroyed - 0.8 : 1

It appears that the Ukrainians have even less faith in their tanks than their Russian opponents.


----------



## Skysix

brihard said:


> I'd be more interested in how well Ukraine is doing in terms of retaining experienced AFV crews.


We should be looking for dual NATO citizen/Ukranian tankers to be seconded to the UA. Would be excellent instructors back home (if they survive). Ditto Gunners and Engineers etc.

The current and near future high intensity battles in Ukraine are far closer to the way war will be fought in the future than WW2 or G1. Reviewing AAR from the comfort of the various staff colleges simply does not have the same veritas.


----------



## MilEME09

Anyone able to confirm this?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527712723374596099


----------



## FJAG

MilEME09 said:


> Anyone able to confirm this?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527712723374596099


The Washington Post suggests it as a possibility:



> The bill, passed on an 86-to-11 vote Thursday, provides a combined $20 billion in military aid that is expected to finance the transfer of advanced weapons systems, such as Patriot antiaircraft missiles and long-range artillery. Also included in the bill is more than $8 billion in general economic support for Ukraine, nearly $5 billion in global food aid to address potential food shortages sparked by the collapse of the Ukrainian agricultural economy, and more than $1 billion in combined support for refugees.





> https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/19/ukraine-aid-senate/



🍻


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> Anyone able to confirm this?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527712723374596099


That’ll sure leave a mark on the VKS…


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Air superiority would be extremely helpful when the UA starts the mop up of Kherson and Mariupol.


----------



## Prairie canuck

Good2Golf said:


> That’ll sure leave a mark on the VKS…


I think the Russians will be trophy hunting for those to the point of distraction. Destroying a couple would be good for their propaganda machine.


----------



## MilEME09

Prairie canuck said:


> I think the Russians will be trophy hunting for those to the point of distraction. Destroying a couple would be good for their propaganda machine.


Given their range, they would be taking a big risk to find and engage


----------



## Prairie canuck

MilEME09 said:


> Given their range, they would be taking a big risk to find and engage


Their leadership certainly don't take risks. It's not like they tried a river crossing a 3rd time after failing at the same place twice before..   "don't worry Vlad we can spin this "


----------



## The Bread Guy

"Official" word from RUS MoD info-machine on Azovstal as of last night (safe PDF of English statement attached)


> The underground facilities of the enterprise, where the militants had been hiding, have come under full control of the Russian Armed Forces.  Since May 16, a total of 2,439 Azov Nazis and AFU servicemen blocked inside the plant have laid down their arms and surrendered during the operation.  Today, the last group of 531 militants surrendered.  The so-called ‘commander’ of the Azov Nazis, due to the hatred of Mariupol residents and the desire of the  townspeople to massacre him for his numerous atrocities, was removed from the territory of the plant in a special armoured vehicle ...




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527888361763000321

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527617544265293824


----------



## The Bread Guy

Russian approach to cyberwarfare:  denial of service attack by going in physically and pulling out wires








						The Emergence of Physically Mediated Cyberattacks?
					

Physical violence against personnel in lawless environments as an element of cyberattack is another dimension of cyber conflict, and its importance has been neglected for way too long.




					www.lawfareblog.com


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

The Bread Guy said:


> Russian approach to cyberwarfare:  denial of service attack by going in physically and pulling out wires
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Emergence of Physically Mediated Cyberattacks?
> 
> 
> Physical violence against personnel in lawless environments as an element of cyberattack is another dimension of cyber conflict, and its importance has been neglected for way too long.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.lawfareblog.com


The Israeli's have been conducting physical attacks in response to cyber warfare for a few years now.

They've turned a bunch of Hezbollah and Hamas hackers in to vaporware with drone strikes as a retaliation for cyber attacks.


----------



## Zipperhead99

The Norwegian CDS thinks it will take Russia 5-10 years to recover from their disastrous invasion...that is presuming Putin finally realizes the futility of it all and gives up









						Russia’s military is now a ‘wounded bear.’ Can it revive itself? - Breaking Defense
					

The Norwegian chief of defense, along with experts, assess Russia's poor performance, how long the conflict will likely last, and what Russia would have to do to rebuild its early losses.




					breakingdefense.com


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> "Official" word from RUS MoD info-machine on Azovstal as of last night (safe PDF of English statement attached)
> ]


Pretty sure locals would celebrate them, and Russia wants to avoid that embarrassing situation


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> As it is known, the Russian sapper robots "Uran-6" were delivered by Russia to Ukraine, previously reported, we show the direct work of the operator to control the mine clearance robot "Uran-6" in Ukraine. The robot's reservation allows you to withstand the explosion of even an anti-tank mine. The control of the military robot "Uranus-6" is remote. The main task of the sapper robot is to make passages in minefields and quickly clear the areas.


@Soldier35, is that because Russian tankers don’t know how to install mine ploughs in their turret-popping T-72/80/90s?


----------



## MilEME09

Good2Golf said:


> @Soldier35, is that because Russian tankers don’t know how to install mine ploughs in their turret-popping T-72/80/90s?


Pretty sure in Russian Army, you are the mine plough


----------



## KevinB

Good2Golf said:


> @Soldier35, is that because Russian tankers don’t know how to install mine ploughs in their turret-popping T-72/80/90s?


Or because Russian forces have irresponsibly strewn mines everywhere…


----------



## Remius

Uranus 6 is a great name


----------



## Remius

Putin is losing his grip on power and top Russian security officials think the Ukraine war is 'lost,' expert says
					

The "informed elite" within Russian security forces "understand that the war is lost," said Bellingcat's lead Russia investigator Christo Grozev.




					www.businessinsider.com
				




Grain of salt and all but it isn’t inconceivable that saner elements in Russia are aware that this might be over.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Remius said:


> Uranus 6 is a great name



Coincidentally, someone just sent me this


----------



## Blackadder1916

Soldier35 said:


> . . .  the Russian sapper robots "Uran-6" were delivered by Russia to Ukraine . . .



Was that some sort of challenge?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> The Israeli's have been conducting physical attacks in response to cyber warfare for a few years now.
> 
> They've turned a bunch of Hezbollah and Hamas hackers in to vaporware with drone strikes as a retaliation for cyber attacks.


Cool - we now have the other end of the "directly-kinetic cyber attack" continuum


----------



## Kirkhill

Recommended by Ilia Ponomarenko

A response to the New York Times and its editorial suggestion that Ukraine give it up.  It can't beat Russia.










						Andriy Zagorodnyuk: ‘Those who say Ukraine can’t win don’t understand the situation'
					

A New York Times editorial article titled “The War in Ukraine Is Getting Complicated, and America Isn’t Ready,” published on May 19, immediately triggered a stir in Ukraine and beyond. Coming from a media outlet that has the reputation of being supportive of




					kyivindependent.com
				





__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1528099937321467905


----------



## kev994

Soldier35 said:


> As it is known, the Russian sapper robots "Uran-6" were delivered by Russia to Ukraine, previously reported, we show the direct work of the operator to control the mine clearance robot "Uran-6" in Ukraine. The robot's reservation allows you to withstand the explosion of even an anti-tank mine. The control of the military robot "Uranus-6" is remote. The main task of the sapper robot is to make passages in minefields and quickly clear the areas.


Who cares? You’re losing terribly. You all really should cut your losses and go home.


----------



## suffolkowner

Ukraine Is in Worse Shape than You Think
					

Despite holding back the Russian invasion, Ukraine is facing major crises across many fronts




					time.com
				




a more critical view of the situation in Ukraine and the Russian gains there.


----------



## KevinB

suffolkowner said:


> Ukraine Is in Worse Shape than You Think
> 
> 
> Despite holding back the Russian invasion, Ukraine is facing major crises across many fronts
> 
> 
> 
> 
> time.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> a more critical view of the situation in Ukraine and the Russian gains there.


It’s pretty light on many military facts.  It talks about Ukraine 250k Military strength and ignores the mobilized forces, and that the UA has consistently rotated units out to rebuild and re-equip with Western weapons.
Yes the article has a lot of truth to it, in terms of the economic aspects, but also misses the global issue of what occurs if Ukrainian wheat is destroyed or spoiled before shipping — a large segment of the world starves.
  As far as brain drain and refugee flow, that should be a no brained to anyone reading as the country has been effectively at war since the first Russian invasion.


----------



## Zipperhead99

Remius said:


> Putin is losing his grip on power and top Russian security officials think the Ukraine war is 'lost,' expert says
> 
> 
> The "informed elite" within Russian security forces "understand that the war is lost," said Bellingcat's lead Russia investigator Christo Grozev.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.businessinsider.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Grain of salt and all but it isn’t inconceivable that saner elements in Russia are aware that this might be over.


Interesting, as last week, the Chief of Ukraine's Intelligence suggested that a coup to remove Putin is underway









						Coup to oust Putin is underway, Ukrainian general claims
					

The head of Ukraine's military intelligence service said a coup to oust Russian President Vladimir Putin is already underway. In an interview with Sky




					americanmilitarynews.com


----------



## Zipperhead99

Kirkhill said:


> An interesting, if propagandized, video on the Georgians.  Some captures of the weapons and suggestions of tactics.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uq1g02
> 
> I wonder how long before Georgia acts to regain its lost territories?


Georgia may have to act sooner rather than later as it appears that South Ossetia is going to hold a referendum on joining USSR 2.0 on 17 July.









						Moscow Unsure How to React to South Ossetian Referendum on Accession to Russian Federation - Jamestown
					

On July 17, the Russian-occupied Georgian breakaway region of South Ossetia will hold a referendum on joining Russia (Radio Tavisupleba, May, 13). Anatoly Bibilov, who is serving out his term as the head of the separatist regime in Tskhinvali, signed a decree to hold the referendum shortly after...




					jamestown.org


----------



## KevinB

Zipperhead99 said:


> Interesting, as last week, the Chief of Ukraine's Intelligence suggested that a coup to remove Putin is underway
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Coup to oust Putin is underway, Ukrainian general claims
> 
> 
> The head of Ukraine's military intelligence service said a coup to oust Russian President Vladimir Putin is already underway. In an interview with Sky
> 
> 
> 
> 
> americanmilitarynews.com


FWIW AMN is pretty flaky, But I don’t doubt a lot of folks are looking for VVP’s head. He’s made a lot of folks pretty unhappy of late including inner circle folks.


----------



## MilEME09

Zipperhead99 said:


> Georgia may have to act sooner rather than later as it appears that South Ossetia is going to hold a referendum on joining USSR 2.0 on 17 July.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Moscow Unsure How to React to South Ossetian Referendum on Accession to Russian Federation - Jamestown
> 
> 
> On July 17, the Russian-occupied Georgian breakaway region of South Ossetia will hold a referendum on joining Russia (Radio Tavisupleba, May, 13). Anatoly Bibilov, who is serving out his term as the head of the separatist regime in Tskhinvali, signed a decree to hold the referendum shortly after...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> jamestown.org


So this likely isn't actually happening, it was announced by the out going president just after loosing the election. After South Ossetian troops said F this and came home the new incoming president gained a lot of support for saying let's not join Russia right away. Likely this referendum will be scrapped in the coming weeks


----------



## Zipperhead99

MilEME09 said:


> You know you messed up when the Swiss start going hmmm
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1526097648922550272


Even Ireland has been contemplating ending its neutrality and joining NATO.  Doubt it would happened but if Ireland, Switzerland, Finland and Sweden all ended up in NATO; then Putin's blunder into Ukraine will be even worse for him


----------



## MilEME09

Well now, I am betting most are still in training but, it's a lot of troops


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527944356518322176


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1528048043647434752


----------



## The Bread Guy

More on Cadieux from a pro-RUS amplifier web site (highlights mine) ...

The conclusion?

Riiiiiiiiiiiiight ... Funny how even now, they can't get the spelling of his name straight, even within the same article?

More via an archived link to the entire piece here, and more on the Southfront site here & here.


----------



## Kirkhill

Expansion of the Latvian Battle Group to the Latvian Brigade Group?

I understand we have committed a standby force to the task  but



> The Liberal government's recent activation of 3,400 soldiers, sailors and aircrew for duty with the NATO Response Force (NRF)



Once we take the sailors and aircrew away from that number,  can we plump up our contribution by a factor of 3?   Effectively 3 batteries of M777s, 6 LAV Companies and 2 more Battle Group HQs?

Or is that more than we can afford to give? 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527373790925074447


----------



## daftandbarmy

Political office can be hazardous to your health...


*A Russian-appointed mayor of a Ukrainian occupied town was injured in an explosion on Sunday.*

Andrei Shevchuk was appointed mayor of Enerhodar following the Russian army’s occupation of the town, Reuters reported.

Shevchuk is in intensive care following the attack, according to a report from Russia’s RIA news agency, citing a source in the emergency services.

Dmytro Orlov, who Ukraine recognises as mayor of the town said in a post on the Telegram messaging app:



> We have accurate confirmation that during the explosion the self-proclaimed head of the ‘people’s administration’ Shevchuk and his bodyguards were injured.



Enerhodar has a population of more than 50,000 and many of the residents work at the two power plants located next to the town, one of which is the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest nuclear power station in Europe.









						Russia-Ukraine war: airstrikes target Mykolaiv and Donbas regions; Ukraine EU bid could take 20 years, says French minister – live
					

Russia ministry of defence says forces targeting command centres, troops, and ammunition depots; French Europe minister says necessary to be honest




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> Expansion of the Latvian Battle Group to the Latvian Brigade Group?
> 
> I understand we have committed a standby force to the task  but
> 
> 
> 
> Once we take the sailors and aircrew away from that number,  can we plump up our contribution by a factor of 3?   Effectively 3 batteries of M777s, 6 LAV Companies and 2 more Battle Group HQs?
> 
> Or is that more than we can afford to give?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527373790925074447


Oh look somewhere to promote a new staff officer....we have lots of those to contribute


----------



## tomydoom

Zipperhead99 said:


> Even Ireland has been contemplating ending its neutrality and joining NATO.  Doubt it would happened but if Ireland, Switzerland, Finland and Sweden all ended up in NATO; then Putin's blunder into Ukraine will be even worse for him


Do you have a a citation for Ireland contemplating joining NATO? I live in Dublin and the local news is notable silent on that and the government has said essentially, “no time soon”. The most the government committed to is modestly increased defence expenditure and possible greater cooperation with NATO.


----------



## MilEME09

Some estimates on casualties 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1528405346179764224


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Italy Circulates 4-Point Peace Plan
					

Italy presented a four-point peace plan this week to United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres to end the conflict in Ukraine. “We are working with partners and allies, including Ukraine, on a peace plan,” said a spokesman for the Italian Foreign Ministry, declining to give further details.




					www.wsj.com
				




And the language is beginning to change 🤔


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Italy Circulates 4-Point Peace Plan
> 
> 
> Italy presented a four-point peace plan this week to United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres to end the conflict in Ukraine. “We are working with partners and allies, including Ukraine, on a peace plan,” said a spokesman for the Italian Foreign Ministry, declining to give further details.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.wsj.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And the language is beginning to change 🤔


Except Ukraine has said there will be no peace so long as Russian troops are in Ukrainian soil


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> Except Ukraine has said there will be no peace so long as Russian troops are in Ukrainian soil


Their President has also said that Diplomacy is now the only way to end the conflict.  

This is by far the most realistic proposal I've seen so far.


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Their President has also said that Diplomacy is now the only way to end the conflict.
> 
> This is by far the most realistic proposal I've seen so far.


Any DMZ would need a third party force to monitor, no one would trust Russia to honor a ceasefire, not after 2014, and two failed Minsk agreements that they ignored


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> Any DMZ would need a third party force to monitor, no one would trust Russia to honor a ceasefire, not after 2014, and two failed Minsk agreements that they ignored


Defacto Neutral = Demilitarized Ukraine  aka Moldova 2.0

The fact it says Ukraine is part of the negotiation should let you know they are themselves involved.


----------



## MilEME09

Behind the Dutch Terror Threat Video: The St. Petersburg "Troll Factory" Connection - bellingcat
					

Translations:English (UK)Русский (Россия)At 13:30:09 GMT on 18 January 2016, a new YouTube channel called ПАТРИОТ (“Patriot”) uploaded its first video, titled (in Ukrainian) “Appeal of AZOV fighters to the Netherlands on a referendum about EU – Ukraine.” The video depicts six soldiers holding...




					www.bellingcat.com


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

@MilEME09  the fact they included sanctions relief was what really jumped out at me.

It means the Russians will have done all of this for essentially no geopolitical cost.  

Something tells me the coming global food crisis is forcing Government's to rethink their strategy.


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Defacto Neutral = Demilitarized Ukraine  aka Moldova 2.0
> 
> The fact it says Ukraine is part of the negotiation should let you know they are themselves involved.


After this year I high doubt Ukraine would demiliterize, in any way. Russia, with putin in charge will be a threat to its existence. I am highly skeptical of this peace plan, because it can allow Russia to stall, rebuild then restart combat because "negotiations broke down"


----------



## Kirkhill

​​Western resolve set to be tested as key US and EU figures want Ukraine to cede territory to Russia and make peace​The inevitable outcome may be a compromise preserving Ukrainian sovereignty and ceding territory to Russia, a New York Times editorial said

ByRoland Oliphant, SENIOR FOREIGN CORRESPONDENT22 May 2022 • 8:03pm





Self-propelled artillery vehicles firing towards Ukrainian army positions near the town of Yasynuvataya, outside Donetsk CREDIT: Alexei Alexandrov/AP

It is the greatest triumph of an underdog since David slew Goliath: Ukraine's defeat of Russia at Kyiv and Kharkiv have revealed Russia as a paper tiger, the collapse of Mr Putin's army is inevitable and Ukraine can win the war if only the Western alliance holds its nerve.
Or is that nothing but a fantasy, out of touch with the cold realities of the balance of power, Russia's nuclear status and its battlefield successes on the southern front?
Isn't the inevitable outcome of the war a grotty compromise that preserves Ukrainian sovereignty, but cedes Russia some territory? And if so, shouldn't the West push Kyiv to accept that reality before more lives are lost?
That was the argument laid out in an editorial in the New York Times - sparking uproar in Kyiv amid growing fears about the resolve of elites in both the United States and Europe to see the conflict through.
Advertisement

The piece, attributed to the paper’s Editorial Board, argued that Russia is too strong for Ukraine to defeat decisively on the battlefield; that the realistic outcome of the war will involve territorial concessions from Ukraine; and that President Joe Biden should make this clear to Volodymyr Zelensky sooner rather than later - including by placing clear limits on US support for Kyiv.

Ukrainian servicemen walk in the forest near a recently retaken village, north of Kharkiv, on May 15 CREDIT: Mstyslav Chernov/AP
Despite Ukraine’s stunning successes around Kyiv and Kharkiv, “a decisive military victory for Ukraine over Russia, in which Ukraine regains all the territory Russia has seized since 2014, is not a realistic goal,” the newspaper wrote.
Ultimately, it said: “It will be Ukrainian leaders who will have to make the painful territorial decisions that any compromise will demand.”
Officials in Kyiv reacted with unconcealed fury.
The arguments laid out in the editorial reflect a debate that raged in Washington foreign policy circles in the run up to war.
Then, most experts assumed Ukraine was certain to lose even with Western military assistance.
Forcing a diplomatic solution that saved lives would therefore be preferable to risking a US military confrontation with Russia - even if it meant pushing the Ukrainians to accept unpalatable concessions on the stalled Minsk peace agreements, some argued.

It was a view with traction in Washington.

Joe Biden now appears to have thrown his weight behind the previously unthinkable goal of a Ukrainian victory - pushing through vast financial assistance bills and green-lighting deliveries of increasingly powerful weaponry.
It is a goal backed by allies including Britain and Poland.

But the New York Times article shows elements of the American establishment are still not convinced. And they are not alone.
Earlier this month Mr Zelensky hinted, with some irritation, that Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, had asked him to give up land in exchange for peace.
Mario Draghi, the Italian prime minister, and Olaf Scholz, the chancellor of Germany, have also recently talked of seeking a “ceasefire” - something that would leave Russian troops on Ukrainian territory and increase the chances of Mr Putin retaining captured land during peace talks.

Mr Zelensky has conceded that the war will eventually end with talks - but says he wants Russians out of Ukraine first and has ruled out territorial concessions.

Interestingly, it is not only Ukrainians appalled by the idea of compromise.




One Russian nationalist commentator on the war responding to the New York Times article warned that the suggested settlement would merely allow the West and Ukraine to rearm for another war later. There can be no stopping now, he urged: the war must continue.
That is exactly what Ukrainian officials fear Russia would use a ceasefire for. And many believe there is no reason to stop fighting when they have the upper hand.
The head of Ukrainian military intelligence has publicly asserted that the tide of the war will turn over the summer, and that Ukraine will retake its lost territories.
Perhaps the war will end in some kind of compromise. But there is much more fighting to be done before either side will accept one.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> After this year I high doubt Ukraine would demiliterize, in any way. Russia, with putin in charge will be a threat to its existence. I am highly skeptical of this peace plan, because it can allow Russia to stall, rebuild then restart combat because "negotiations broke down"


But.... you need to look at the bigger picture.  Ukraine will remain demilitarized if the West stops delivering it weapons. 

The unfortunate reality is the EU needs Russian gas, fertilizer and wheat.  They are going to happily throw Ukraine under the bus for this.

Russia can live without iPhones and McDonalds, Europe can't function without natural resources, particularly food in their stomaches.


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> But.... you need to look at the bigger picture.  Ukraine will remain demilitarized if the West stops delivering it weapons.
> 
> The unfortunate reality is the EU needs Russian gas, fertilizer and wheat.  They are going to happily throw Ukraine under the bus for this.
> 
> Russia can live without iPhones and McDonalds, Europe can't function without natural resources, particularly food in their stomaches.


Pre war, Ukraine supplied 40% of the world's grain exports, before 2014 Ukraine discovered large O&G deposits off Crimea.


Ukraine could supply Europe's needs if they were developed, Russian interference has stopped that, Russia needs Europe more then Europe needs Russia. Only difference is Russias actions in Ukraine have prevented any shift off of Russian sources. Russia is no fool, but they have likely miscalculated here


----------



## suffolkowner

The plan seems unrealistic to me. How can there be any security guarantees that are worthwhile? Russia is going to accept less in Crimea and Donbass than what they had before Feb 24th?


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

suffolkowner said:


> The plan seems unrealistic to me. How can there be any security guarantees that are worthwhile? Russia is going to accept less in Crimea and Donbass than what they had before Feb 24th?



The first stage of any negotiation is proposing something unacceptable and then working from there


----------



## Prairie canuck

Give Ukraine the jet fighters from Poland, Slovakia, etc it asked for and this becomes a whole different story. Ukraine's ground game has seemingly stalled and the Russian artillery seems to have free reign in the Donbas.


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> The first stage of any negotiation is proposing something unacceptable and then working from there




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512451999622643714


----------



## rmc_wannabe

The only people who talk of Ukrainian surrender are those who stand to lose the most by a weakened Russia. 

Most of the Western EU states have played both sides of the fence for decades and are now finding out how bad a miscalculation that was. 

Ukraine has every right to batter the hell out of the Russians until they cry uncle. Sanctions should remain in place until Russia gives some form of reparations to Ukraine for their War of Aggression. Ukraine should be the ones dictating their security posture, not the EU, NATO, or Russia. 

The sooner everyone gets on board with this concept, without thinking Ukrainian territory is a bargaining chip, the better.


----------



## suffolkowner

Theres a lot of fear and nervousness over food supply right now. Im not sure Europe has the stomach for that plus Russias oil and NG


----------



## The Bread Guy

suffolkowner said:


> Theres a lot of fear and nervousness over food supply right now. Im not sure Europe or anyone else who'll be affected on the food security front has the stomach for that plus Russias oil and NG


FTFY ... unfortunately.


----------



## Kirkhill

The New York position (AKA the Noam Chomsky position)









						Opinion | The War in Ukraine Is Getting Complicated, and America Isn’t Ready
					

U.S. support for the war is not guaranteed.




					www.nytimes.com
				







__





						Ukraine’s Way Out
					





					www.msn.com
				











						Ukraine Is in Worse Shape than You Think
					

Despite holding back the Russian invasion, Ukraine is facing major crises across many fronts




					time.com
				




The Carolingian position (AKA the Western Defence Union position)









						Europe’s leaders fall out of key on Ukraine
					

Germany, France and Italy are making overtures to Moscow.




					www.politico.eu
				











						Ukraine's EU Application Is Splitting Europe in Two
					

Western nations are more hesitant on Ukraine's EU ambitions, while eastern member states are pushing for progress.




					www.newsweek.com
				




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1527979779252797440
Baltic Position (AKA the Joint Expeditionary Force position)









						Ukraine must decide its own future, says Duda – DW – 05/23/2022
					

Visiting Polish President Andrzej Duda has told Ukrainian parliamentarians that only Ukraine should decide what path it should follow amid Russia's invasion. Follow DW for the latest.




					www.dw.com
				




The Ukrainian position










						Ukraine rejects concessions as Russia attacks in east
					

Kyiv’s stance has become increasingly uncompromising in recent weeks




					www.theglobeandmail.com
				











						Ukraine war: 'Concessions are not an option,' Kyiv says
					

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine's president Zelensky, said the country would not agree to a ceasefire and said Kyiv would not accept any deal with Moscow that involved ceding territory.




					www.dailymail.co.uk
				











						Andriy Zagorodnyuk: ‘Those who say Ukraine can’t win don’t understand the situation'
					

A New York Times editorial article titled “The War in Ukraine Is Getting Complicated, and America Isn’t Ready,” published on May 19, immediately triggered a stir in Ukraine and beyond. Coming from a media outlet that has the reputation of being supportive of




					kyivindependent.com
				







__





						Open Letter to Noam Chomsky (and other like-minded intellectuals) on the Russia-Ukraine war
					

We are a group of Ukrainian academic economists who were grieved by a series of your recent interviews and commentaries on the Russian war on Ukraine.




					voxukraine.org
				





Dmytro Kuleba
@DmytroKuleba

Ukraine government official
Ukraine, and only Ukraine will define when and how the war ends. We exercise our right to self-defence under article 51 of the UN Charter following a brutal armed attack. President
@ZelenskyyUa
 has been clear. We don’t need anyone else’s land, but we won’t give up on what’s ours.


8:49 AM · May 21, 2022·Twitter for iPhone


----------



## rmc_wannabe

suffolkowner said:


> Theres a lot of fear and nervousness over food supply right now. Im not sure Europe has the stomach for that plus Russias oil and NG


Europe hasn't had the stomach for anything since the Wall fell. Everyone got rich, fat, and happy off the cheap industry, farming, and labour coming from the Warsaw Pact. Their resolve, their willingness to endure hardship, and their willingness to lift a finger in their own defence has been lacking for decades. 

The same can be said for Canada. We bitch and moan about fuel prices, food prices, and our own pockets books at the expense of Ukrainian lives and destruction. 

Global food shortage will come regardless if the war rages on for another 6 months. The harvest is lost this year and that is entirely on Russia. If we are in for a penny, might as well go whole hog and ensure the juice was worth the squeeze.


----------



## MilEME09

rmc_wannabe said:


> Global food shortage will come regardless if the war rages on for another 6 months. The harvest is lost this year and that is entirely on Russia. If we are in for a penny, might as well go whole hog and ensure the juice was worth the squeeze.


70% of Ukraines sowing program went ahead, the problem right now is the silos are full because the ports are blocked. They need to get that grain transported out soon, dried grain will last 16 months if properly stored, do we have time before it spoils.

Poland is rapidly constructing a rail line compatible with Ukraine trains from the Ukrainian border to the Baltic ports.


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukraine will negotiate .... once it has won and Russia is cleared from Ukraine.  That seems to be Zelenskyy's message.

With a lot of nervous westerners sweating energy prices and nuclear concerns he is trying hard to keep his sponsors on side.

Western Europeans are reluctant allies.
Eastern Europeans and the Scandinavians, all of whom have skin in the game, are keen allies.  Britain is backing that play.

And what is the US play?
Next question - which US?










						How Putin’s War Remade Washington
					

From a revitalization of NATO to the return of superpower nuclear anxiety, it’s been a breathtaking three months.




					www.newyorker.com
				







> Two hours after Biden’s Nordic photo op, the Senate approved—with an overwhelmingly bipartisan vote of 86–11—a forty-billion-dollar aid package for Ukraine. The twin developments on Thursday reinforced the point that, in the not-quite three months since Russia attacked Ukraine, the war has already changed Washington in striking ways.





> “the shock of February 24th”—the date that Putin launched this war against his neighbor, ... That date, it is now clear, represents one of those hinge-point moments that happens every decade or two—a transformative event not just for Ukraine and Europe but for Washington, too.





> One of the most alarming changes since then has been the return of nuclear anxiety





> *Finland and Sweden*’s swift decisions to join _nato_ have created one of the most concrete and hard-to-reverse changes since February. The move has *very specific military consequences for Russia*, which will now face an additional eight-hundred-plus miles of border with nat_o_, two additional militaries that are *among the most heavily armed and capable in Europe*, and the *prospect of the alliance being able to “bottle up the Baltic *Sea and keep the Russians from coming out,” as Eric Edelman, a former Pentagon under-secretary in the George W. Bush Administration, put it to me. “It’s huge from a geostrategic point of view,”




And in the background there is this









						Two very different EU's are emerging -East EU and West EU- they can't both survive COMMENT
					

FRENCH President Emmanuel Macron reiterated last night that it will take decades for Ukraine to be accepted into the European Union. Speaking at the European Parliament, Macron suggested instead that Ukraine could join a parallel European community, involving security.




					www.express.co.uk


----------



## The Bread Guy

German media takes on a touchy subject 








						Stepan Bandera: Ukrainian hero or Nazi collaborator? | DW | 22.05.2022
					

The Mariupol fighters revere him, Russian soldiers hunt his supporters. The myth surrounding Ukrainian nationalist Stepan Bandera is at the heart of Russia's assault on Ukraine. Who was he?




					www.dw.com


----------



## NavyShooter




----------



## Skysix

tomydoom said:


> Do you have a a citation for Ireland contemplating joining NATO? I live in Dublin and the local news is notable silent on that and the government has said essentially, “no time soon”. The most the government committed to is modestly increased defence expenditure and possible greater cooperation with NATO.


Does not look at Ireland joining NATO but is a very good analysis of Sweden and Finland's joining effects


----------



## Skysix

With regards to the New York Times, France and Italy suggesting Ukraine should cede territory to Russia in return for peace (and gas/commerce to themselves):

1)  WHAT, in the ENTIRE history of Russia makes you think they will stop pursuing their dream of a New Russian Empire?

2)  So, how much land will YOU cede to Russia to achieve a temporary peace and a return to normal trade? I am sure Vlad would LOVE to have Russian ports on the Mediteranean and Adriatic. Not to mention the northeastern seaboard. Maybe New York can cede them Montoc ...

3)  Stop priorising your  bank balances over Ukranian lives. Be grateful they are willing to die for you, only requesting the means to evict an invading horde only slightly more advanced morally than the Mongols of old.

In short, STFU

(rant off)


----------



## Haggis

MilEME09 said:


> 70% of Ukraines sowing program went ahead, the problem right now is the silos are full because the ports are blocked. They need to get that grain transported out soon, dried grain will last 16 months if properly stored, do we have time before it spoils.


Those silos are probably fairly high on Russia's targeting lists but are not being engaged until they can ensure their own food security, which will likely include those silos.


----------



## KevinB

As long as President Biden and the USG remains committed to helping Ukraine, and the Ukraine is still willing to fight - who cares what some Europeans etc think.

Right now as long as the Arsenal of Democracy remains in play turning over equipment and sending $, who gives two shits about France etc.  

Poland and England are still committed hard - and that’s pretty much all you need, one as stop over and the other the transit border. 

Maybe those weak knees European weasels should think about the last time the was a major war in Europe…
   Macron would  be speaking German if America hadn’t moved across the sea…


But Germany today announced sending tanks and IFV’s - so it’s really just Macron trying to play nice to Putin.

Everyone wants Putin gone - so buck up and enjoy the ride.


----------



## Maxman1

Remius said:


> Putin is losing his grip on power and top Russian security officials think the Ukraine war is 'lost,' expert says
> 
> 
> The "informed elite" within Russian security forces "understand that the war is lost," said Bellingcat's lead Russia investigator Christo Grozev.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.businessinsider.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Grain of salt and all but it isn’t inconceivable that saner elements in Russia are aware that this might be over.


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> *With regards to *the New York Times,* France *and Italy* suggesting Ukraine should cede territory to Russia in return for peace (and gas/commerce to themselves):*
> 
> 2)  *So, how much land will YOU cede to Russia to achieve a temporary peace and a return to normal trade*? I am sure Vlad would LOVE to have Russian ports on the Mediteranean and Adriatic. Not to mention the northeastern seaboard. Maybe New York can cede them Montoc ...



Paris?  It worked the last time.


----------



## CBH99

MilEME09 said:


> 70% of Ukraines sowing program went ahead, the problem right now is the silos are full because the ports are blocked. They need to get that grain transported out soon, dried grain will last 16 months if properly stored, do we have time before it spoils.
> 
> Poland is rapidly constructing a rail line compatible with Ukraine trains from the Ukrainian border to the Baltic ports.


Poland is the next door neighbour that every country wishes they had.  Talk about real solidarity, real support, and leadership capable of turns words into actions.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Haggis said:


> Those silos are probably fairly high on Russia's targeting lists but are not being engaged until they can ensure their own food security, which will likely include those silos.


These guys seem to be sharing interesting graphics re:  what's where and where it could go in that respect ...








						Ukraine's Grains-n-Trains Project - Google My Maps
					

!PLEASE READ!  We are a group of volunteers exploring existing and non-conventional options for moving Ukrainian grains and agricultural products into the European Rail Network for distribution to European Export Terminals, primarily, but not exclusively on the Danube International Waterway...




					www.google.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Sort of related to the conflict, another link between Canada and Ukraine 









						How a single Ukrainian grain made its way to Canada and launched Canadian wheat
					

'The entire development of Canada's wheat industry, the most renowned in the world, is due mainly to a single Ukrainian grain of wheat'




					ottawacitizen.com


----------



## FJAG

KevinB said:


> But Germany today announced sending tanks and IFV’s - so it’s really just Macron trying to play nice to Putin.



I'd like to believe that's true but have seen nothing yet confirming it in any of the German papers (and they would be all over this)


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> As long as President Biden and the USG remains committed to helping Ukraine, and the Ukraine is still willing to fight - who cares what some Europeans etc think.
> 
> Right now as long as the Arsenal of Democracy remains in play turning over equipment and sending $, who gives two shits about France etc.
> 
> Poland and England are still committed hard - and that’s pretty much all you need, one as stop over and the other the transit border.
> 
> Maybe those weak knees European weasels should think about the last time the was a major war in Europe…
> Macron would  be speaking German if America hadn’t moved across the sea…
> 
> 
> But Germany today announced sending tanks and IFV’s - so it’s really just Macron trying to play nice to Putin.
> 
> Everyone wants Putin gone - so buck up and enjoy the ride.


I don’t see an scenario where Poland walks away from the Ukraine. They are tied at the hip now and into the future over the next 3-10yrs. As long as the Tories are in power the UK will be apart of this mix, lose the next election and all bets are off.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> I don’t see an scenario where Poland walks away from the Ukraine. They are tied at the hip now and into the future over the next 3-10yrs. As long as the Tories are in power the UK will be apart of this mix, lose the next election and all bets are off.


Agreed. 
  Ukrainian support against Russia is heavily bipartisan down here - so we have at least 2.5years of heavy support on our end.


----------



## KevinB

FJAG said:


> I'd like to believe that's true but have seen nothing yet confirming it in any of the German papers (and they would be all over this)


I was listening to his speech yesterday - I’ll try to dig it up.  Sounded like the previously mentioned Leo 1, Marder and Pz2000 are going to move East.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Agreed.
> Ukrainian support against Russia is heavily bipartisan down here - so we have at least 2.5years of heavy support on our end.


And Ronald must be spinning in the grave knowing that the ‘Evil Empire’ is now looked at by the Republicans as the ‘good guys’.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> And Ronald must be spinning in the grave knowing that the ‘Evil Empire’ is now looked at by the Republicans as the ‘good guys’.


I don’t think that’s a fair assessment.  Sure some idiots in the party are clinging to some bizarre idea that Russia was provoked, but they are a small minority.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> I don’t think that’s a fair assessment.  Sure some idiots in the party are clinging to some bizarre idea that Russia was provoked, but they are a small minority.


The tail wags the dog now my friend, in our current bizarro world, this is reality.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> The tail wags the dog now my friend, in our current bizarro world, this is reality.


Right now most Republican elected officials have seen which way the wind blows - and it’s heavily against Russia with the voters…


----------



## The Bread Guy

FJAG said:


> I'd like to believe that's true but have seen nothing yet confirming it in any of the German papers (and they would be all over this)


Spotted some media earlier this week saying Leopards were going to the Czechs (so the Czechs can send T72s to UKR) ...








						Germany to give Czechs 15 tanks to help it arm Ukraine - statement
					

Germany will give the Czech Republic 15 Leopard 2 tanks, the German defence ministry said, part of a "ring exchange" programme under which Berlin aims to help countries pass their stocks of Soviet weaponry to Ukraine to help it fight Russia.




					www.reuters.com
				



... and this on Leopards & Marders ...




__





						Rheinmetall from Germany prepares the supply to Ukraine of 88 Leopard 1A5 tanks and 100 Marder IFVs | Defense News May 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year
					

German company Rheinmetall prepares the supply to Ukraine of 88 Leopard 1A5 Main Battle Tanks and 100 Marder tracked armored IFVs (Infantry Fighting Vehicles).




					armyrecognition.com
				



... based on this from the World Socialist Web Site take ....








						German Chancellor Scholz’s government statement: Rearming for war against Russia
					

The government statement made by Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz to the federal parliament on Thursday morning, and the ensuing debate, made clear how aggressively German imperialism is behaving once again 77 years after the end of the Second World War.



					www.wsws.org
				



... with no details provided in this English summary from the DEU info-machine of the Thursday speech to the Bundestag








						Government statement Scholz EU Council | Federal Government
					

Government statement by Federal Chancellor Scholz on the upcoming European Council and on the war in Ukraine and its consequences.




					www.bundesregierung.de


----------



## Kirkhill

Czech_pivo said:


> The tail wags the dog now my friend, in our current bizarro world, this is reality.



Pivo - that is one of the problems that we are dealing with.  "The" Republicans, "The" Democrats, "The" Conservatives, "The" Liiberals are a lot more than the "True"  believers identified by both themselves and their enemies.  It is that very distinction that our mutual enemies have been fostering and promoting.  And the parties themselves have been playing to that division because it gets fans/fanatics out into the streets to work for the party for free.

We don't need to play up the divisions.  That has been Vlad's game all along and the game of the Comintern since 1921.

Let's try not to play their game.


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> Pivo - that is one of the problems that we are dealing with.  "The" Republicans, "The" Democrats, "The" Conservatives, "The" Liiberals are a lot more than the "True"  believers identified by both themselves and their enemies.  It is that very distinction that our mutual enemies have been fostering and promoting.  And the parties themselves have been playing to that division because it gets fans/fanatics out into the streets to work for the party for free.
> 
> We don't need to play up the divisions.  That has been Vlad's game all along and the game of the Comintern since 1921.
> 
> Let's try not to play their game.


Bingo, look at who's supporting art extremes financially and on both sides.
  Enemies try to weaken their opponents internally, and Russia has done a very good job of exploiting the fringe.


----------



## FJAG

The Bread Guy said:


> Spotted some media earlier this week saying Leopards were going to the Czechs (so the Czechs can send T72s to UKR) ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Germany to give Czechs 15 tanks to help it arm Ukraine - statement
> 
> 
> Germany will give the Czech Republic 15 Leopard 2 tanks, the German defence ministry said, part of a "ring exchange" programme under which Berlin aims to help countries pass their stocks of Soviet weaponry to Ukraine to help it fight Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ... and this on Leopards & Marders ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Rheinmetall from Germany prepares the supply to Ukraine of 88 Leopard 1A5 tanks and 100 Marder IFVs | Defense News May 2022 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2022 | Archive News year
> 
> 
> German company Rheinmetall prepares the supply to Ukraine of 88 Leopard 1A5 Main Battle Tanks and 100 Marder tracked armored IFVs (Infantry Fighting Vehicles).
> 
> 
> 
> 
> armyrecognition.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ... based on this from the World Socialist Web Site take ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> German Chancellor Scholz’s government statement: Rearming for war against Russia
> 
> 
> The government statement made by Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz to the federal parliament on Thursday morning, and the ensuing debate, made clear how aggressively German imperialism is behaving once again 77 years after the end of the Second World War.
> 
> 
> 
> www.wsws.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ... with no details provided in this English summary from the DEU info-machine of the Thursday speech to the Bundestag
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Government statement Scholz EU Council | Federal Government
> 
> 
> Government statement by Federal Chancellor Scholz on the upcoming European Council and on the war in Ukraine and its consequences.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.bundesregierung.de


Yup. Got those and you and @KevinB are right about Germany's direction. Saw those before but thought there might be something new very recently.

Funny isn't it how this war is being fought by old Cold War equipment (which might have been tweaked a bit)? We got rid of the C2 Leos over a decade ago and are now griping that the Leo2A4 is an ancient rust bucket and not good enough for combat - we need the A7. And yet we have no idea if the A7 or the M1A2 SEP 3 or 4 is any more survivable against an NLAW or Javelin than the Leo2 A4 or even the C2 was.

I reiterate that our policy of divesting older but serviceable equipment (and no, I don't want to keep stuff that's beyond economical repair) every time we get new equipment is problematic. Yes, there is a cost to maintaining it but when half of our army is not just underequipped, it's unequipped, that's a cost that needs to be borne.

🍻


----------



## Skysix

KevinB said:


> Right now most Republican elected officials have seen which way the wind blows - and it’s heavily against Russia with the voters…


Yes. But heavily with Trump and his views if they want financial help in getting elected


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1528761210912505858

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1528753264237371393


----------



## The Bread Guy

Skysix said:


> Yes. But heavily with Trump and his views if they want financial help in getting elected


And if memory serves, Trump wasn't all that keen on arming Ukraine during his tenure.  Mind you, the Russian troops were only in the smaller occupied bits in the east @ that point.


----------



## MilEME09

Harpoons for Ukraine


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1528777142800158721
And....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1528775885628837889


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> ... Russia has done a very good job of exploiting the fringe.


At both far ends.


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> As long as President Biden and the USG remains committed to helping Ukraine, and the Ukraine is still willing to fight - who cares what some Europeans etc think.
> 
> Right now as long as the Arsenal of Democracy remains in play turning over equipment and sending $, who gives two shits about France etc.
> 
> Poland and England are still committed hard - and that’s pretty much all you need, one as stop over and the other the transit border.
> 
> Maybe those weak knees European weasels should think about the last time the was a major war in Europe…
> Macron would  be speaking German if America hadn’t moved across the sea…
> 
> 
> But Germany today announced sending tanks and IFV’s - so it’s really just Macron trying to play nice to Putin.
> 
> Everyone wants Putin gone - so buck up and enjoy the ride.


Sure makes one ashamed to carry a French name. At least it makes the white flag and surrender jokes easier to bear.

Glory to POLUKUS.


MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1528761210912505858
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1528753264237371393


A warm and fuzzy feeling when one starts hearing things like ''Lend-Lease'', ''AUMF'' and ''coalition of the willing''. 


The Bread Guy said:


> At both far ends.




When politicians make excuses for not sending modern main battle tanks and fighter jets to Ukraine:


----------



## ueo

KevinB said:


> Right now most Republican elected officials have seen which way the wind blows - and it’s heavily against Russia with the voters…


Really, haven't seen much in the alleged free press. Sources?


----------



## KevinB

ueo said:


> Really, haven't seen much in the alleged free press. Sources?


I look at voting records - and constantly berate my fellow Republicans if they act like imbeciles  
   Look at Ukraine aid sponsorship and the Lend Lease Sponsorship bills in House and Senate - bipartisan and heavily supported.  

The news seems to take Russian money to pitch divisionism these days.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1528823140146720770


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> I look at voting records - and constantly berate my fellow Republicans if they act like imbeciles
> Look at Ukraine aid sponsorship and the Lend Lease Sponsorship bills in House and Senate - bipartisan and heavily supported.
> 
> The news seems to take Russian money to pitch divisionism these days.


The strongest voices, other than the President himself, have been Republican ones.

Rubio, Graham, Kinzinger...


----------



## Skysix

KevinB said:


> The news seems to take Russian money to pitch divisionism these days.


Almost certainly Fox and OAN, maybe CNN, probably ABC, CBS, likely not NBC, PBS, definitely not BBC and Al Jazeera.

It is hard to tell when the funding is coming through multiple levels of sources/cutouts. The west sucks at playing in or understanding the infowar/influence battlespace compared to the Russians. Should take lessons from Ukraine.


----------



## suffolkowner

Kirkhill said:


> Tangential to the Carl G
> 
> And good news for Blackhats @TangoTwoBravo
> 
> The price of Javelins appears to be going up -  Inflation?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Amid Ukraine crisis, Lockheed-Raytheon partnership gets $309M for Javelins - Breaking Defense
> 
> 
> The US has provided more than 5,500 Javelin shoulder-mounted anti-armor systems to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden administration.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> breakingdefense.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 309 MUSD for 1300 missiles works out to something like $240,000 USD apiece.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> FGM-148 Javelin
> 
> 
> The FGM-148 Javelin is an American man-portable fire-and-forget anti-tank missile fielded to replace the M47 Dragon anti-tank missile in US service. It uses automatic infrared guidance that allows the user to seek cover immediately after launch, as opposed to wire-guided systems, like the...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> military-history.fandom.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Weapons of Ukrainian victory: What do we know about NLAW?
> 
> 
> Ukrainian troops are successfully using a portable NLAW short-range anti-tank guided missile provided by the United Kingdom.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> root-nation.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Javelin - 240,000 USD
> TOW2 - 90,000 USD
> NLAW - 40,000 USD
> AT4 -  1500 USD
> CG84 Rd -  500-3000 USD
> 
> Hero-120 - . “The price per unit of one of our system is 60 to 80% less than that of an equivalent antitank missile,”  The equivalent AT Missile wrt warhead is the Javelin - estimated cost  40 to 50,000 USD .
> 
> 1 Javelin buys you three 40 km light vehicle mounted Hero-120s with video  and three manportable 800 m  NLAWs.
> 
> 
> Or more then 100 Carl-G rounds.


Just looking at this quote from the Carl G thread and wondering why no TOW for Ukraine?


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> Just looking at this quote from the Carl G thread and wondering why no TOW for Ukraine?


Javelin is better?


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> Javelin is better?


I figured it must be better and easier to use but seems like Ukraine has been given and used everything else and TOW is available in large numbers


----------



## TacticalTea

Soldier35's friends met some success: Retour du tireur d'élite Wali | « La guerre, c’est une déception terrible »

This article in a prominent Quebec media - which I had read when it first came out - seems to have been influenced by, and served the interests of, Russian propaganda, which reprised it here: Canadian sniper ‘disappointed’ with reality in Ukraine

Clarification by Voice of America's polygraph: Russia, Then China, Distort Canadian Sniper’s Ukraine War Tale

First-hand source and rectification from the man himself: Propagande ennemie : déformer la réalité – La Torche et l'Épée



Separate note: moral casualties on the homefront, a tale many here have known before: 



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1528508826663763970


----------



## daftandbarmy

suffolkowner said:


> Just looking at this quote from the Carl G thread and wondering why no TOW for Ukraine?



Of course, there's a Reddit thread on that subject. The consensus seems to be that Javelin is better overall. And they already have their STUGNA-P ...


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/thkxw2


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1528908803722313728


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1528907746971684864


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1528908803722313728



This cant possibly be true? Can it?



MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1528907746971684864



This cant possibly be true? Can it?






						Institute for the Study of War
					

Russian nationalist figures are increasingly criticizing the failures of Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine and are calling for further mobilization that the Kremlin likely remains unwilling and unable to pursue in the short term. The All-R




					www.understandingwar.org
				




Running civilians through minefields and shooting them its like Russia wants the US to take the gloves off and deliver Abrams and M270's and the Migs

Why would they need T-62's surely they have enough T72's?


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> Why would they need T-62's surely they have enough T72's?


If you read the while thread, estimates say due to poor maintenance and corruption, only 10-15% off Russian vehicles is storage are actually usable. This means out of the thousands in stock only 3-4k actually work, if you combine that with their losses, and the need to keep some good tanks around in case of another war, they are digging out the old stuff for Ukraine.


----------



## TacticalTea

suffolkowner said:


> This cant possibly be true? Can it?
> 
> 
> 
> This cant possibly be true? Can it?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Institute for the Study of War
> 
> 
> Russian nationalist figures are increasingly criticizing the failures of Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine and are calling for further mobilization that the Kremlin likely remains unwilling and unable to pursue in the short term. The All-R
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.understandingwar.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Running civilians through minefields and shooting them its like Russia wants the US to take the gloves off and deliver Abrams and M270's and the Migs
> 
> Why would they need T-62's surely they have enough T72's?


Not surprised at all. 

Remember Biden's talk about the soul of America? Russians lost the battle for theirs long ago. This was entirely predictable and it pisses me off everyday that it took Bucha for world leaders to really start taking action, and that Canada still sits by the sidelines as this war of aggression unfolds.


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> If you read the while thread, estimates say due to poor maintenance and corruption, only 10-15% off Russian vehicles is storage are actually usable. This means out of the thousands in stock only 3-4k actually work, if you combine that with their losses, and the need to keep some good tanks around in case of another war, they are digging out the old stuff for Ukraine.


Thanks I dont do the social media stuff. Thats still insane and sure to be a morale boost for the poor Russians that get chosen for that duty. I bet there will be a rash of tanks running out of fuel again


----------



## Zipperhead99

tomydoom said:


> Do you have a a citation for Ireland contemplating joining NATO? I live in Dublin and the local news is notable silent on that and the government has said essentially, “no time soon”. The most the government committed to is modestly increased defence expenditure and possible greater cooperation with NATO.


Really has not been any political consideration as far as I am aware but there have been many articles since the start of the war with Irish commentators and political analysts debating whether Ireland should remain neutral or join NATO.  Here is the most recent article that I could find:









						Should Ireland debate joining Nato and abandoning ‘neutrality’?
					

Security Correspondent Cormac O’Keeffe approached a number of experts and politicians seeking answers to three pertinent questions




					www.irishexaminer.com


----------



## Zipperhead99

The Danes going to supply Ukraine with Harpoons









						Ukraine to get Harpoon anti-ship missiles from Denmark amid Russian Black Sea blockade
					

Denmark will arm Ukraine with with modern Harpoon anti-ship missiles to protect its coasts, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Monday after concluding the latest U.S.-led meeting of international defense chiefs to coordinate military aid for Ukraine.




					www.defensenews.com


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> The servicemen of the 58th Motorized Infantry Brigade of Ukraine appealed to Vladimir Zelensky with a statement of refusal to fight further. According to them, many of them have never held weapons in their hands in their lives, they do not have ammunition, weapons and food, and therefore they refuse to carry out combat missions.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In an attempt to stop the offensive of the Russian army, the Ukrainian army tried to blow up the dam of the Uglegorsk thermal power plant reservoir while the dam stood. In case of its breakthrough, the water can flood three settlements – Svetlodarsk, Mironovsky and Lugansk with a population of 15,000 people.


@Soldier35, have you Russians run out of Generals yet?  Or should we not count MajGens working a second job for Wagner Guards Aviation Regiment? 🤔


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1528791067247759360


----------



## McG

Wonder if we will see more of these acts of dissent.








						Russian diplomat resigns over Ukraine war
					

Boris Bondarev criticised the ‘aggressive war unleashed’ by Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

You can run but you can't hide... from M777s

You can run but you can't hide: Moment Russian tanks hiding in occupied gardens are obliterated after they were spotted by Ukrainian drones​
*Drone footage shows Russian tanks trying to hide in Ukrainian gardens before being blown up*
*The armoured vehicles could be seen reversing into large back yards in the eastern village of Zirkuni*
*Russian forces were attempting to regain lost positions in the area after a series of setbacks*









						Moment Russian tanks hiding in occupied gardens are obliterated
					

One of the tanks was filmed reversing into a tree-covered yard, with a soldier bringing up the rear. Tank crews got out of their vehicles, standing on top of the tank while talking.




					www.dailymail.co.uk


----------



## Skysix

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1528908803722313728


No surprise at all. Not even considered as a war crime in Russia. This fits precisely with the 2000 LA Times article on "bespredel" and the Genocide Handbook they are following. Just start assuming that unarmed Ukraninians civilian or otherwise will be brutalised and killed as part of their long term 'ethnic cleansing' like goal of eliminating Ukraine as a nation and as a people any time the Chechyns, Wagner or Russian units are not likely to be witnessed by the west as they know they can get away with it.









						War Has No Rules for Russian Forces Fighting in Chechnya
					

Troops admit committing atrocities against guerrillas and civilians. It's part of the military culture of impunity, they say. But many now have troubled consciences. "I remember a Chechen female sniper. We just tore her apart with two armored personnel carriers, having tied her ankles with steel…




					www.latimes.com


----------



## Skysix

The west needs to understand Russian negotiation strategy before even THINKING about entering into any talks with them


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512451999622643714


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1528720750898823169


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1528965159460425730


----------



## tomydoom

Zipperhead99 said:


> Really has not been any political consideration as far as I am aware but there have been many articles since the start of the war with Irish commentators and political analysts debating whether Ireland should remain neutral or join NATO.  Here is the most recent article that I could find:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Should Ireland debate joining Nato and abandoning ‘neutrality’?
> 
> 
> Security Correspondent Cormac O’Keeffe approached a number of experts and politicians seeking answers to three pertinent questions
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.irishexaminer.com


I have seen some of those articles, however the Irish are even less committed to their own defence than Canada.  They fully expect the RAF and RN to defend them and don’t even bother with “enough to discourage involuntary help” as Canada does.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Let's see what's coming next ...
"Defence Minister Anita Anand to make announcement on military aid to Ukraine​Defence Minister Anita Anand will make an important announcement about additional Canadian military aid to Ukraine at the Ukrainian Cultural Centre at 3277 Douglas Street in Victoria, BC.
Date: May 24, 2022

Media are asked to arrive no later than 8:45 am.
Minister Anand will arrive at approximately 9:00 am, and meet the Centre’s leaders and tour the site ..."


----------



## OldSolduer

The Bread Guy said:


> Let's see what's coming next ...
> "Defence Minister Anita Anand to make announcement on military aid to Ukraine​Defence Minister Anita Anand will make an important announcement about additional Canadian military aid to Ukraine at the Ukrainian Cultural Centre at 3277 Douglas Street in Victoria, BC.
> Date: May 24, 2022
> 
> Media are asked to arrive no later than 8:45 am.
> Minister Anand will arrive at approximately 9:00 am, and meet the Centre’s leaders and tour the site ..."


Let me guess - non lethal slingshots and a video of JT speaking about carbon footprints and GBA+?


----------



## brihard

tomydoom said:


> I have seen some of those articles, however the Irish are even less committed to their own defence than Canada.  They fully expect the RAF and RN to defend them and don’t even bother with “enough to discourage involuntary help” as Canada does.


Out of curiosity, defend them from what? What military threat does Ireland feel it faces?


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Let's see what's coming next ...
> "Defence Minister Anita Anand to make announcement on military aid to Ukraine​Defence Minister Anita Anand will make an important announcement about additional Canadian military aid to Ukraine at the Ukrainian Cultural Centre at 3277 Douglas Street in Victoria, BC.
> Date: May 24, 2022
> 
> Media are asked to arrive no later than 8:45 am.
> Minister Anand will arrive at approximately 9:00 am, and meet the Centre’s leaders and tour the site ..."


Looks like they found those last batch of Ross rifles to send over.


----------



## Czech_pivo

brihard said:


> Out of curiosity, defend them from what? What military threat does Ireland feel it faces?


Mad Icelandic fishermen.


----------



## daftandbarmy

The Bread Guy said:


> Let's see what's coming next ...
> "Defence Minister Anita Anand to make announcement on military aid to Ukraine​Defence Minister Anita Anand will make an important announcement about additional Canadian military aid to Ukraine at the Ukrainian Cultural Centre at 3277 Douglas Street in Victoria, BC.
> Date: May 24, 2022
> 
> Media are asked to arrive no later than 8:45 am.
> Minister Anand will arrive at approximately 9:00 am, and meet the Centre’s leaders and tour the site ..."



There's a Tim Horton's just across the street from there. 

I assume they'll make bank


----------



## TacticalTea

tomydoom said:


> I have seen some of those articles, however the Irish are even less committed to their own defence than Canada.  They fully expect the RAF and RN to defend them and don’t even bother with “enough to discourage involuntary help” as Canada does.


Do you think unification would change that? If Britain does not have as much of a stake in Ireland's security anymore, and cooperation with NATO isn't synonymous to cooperation with the ''English occupier'', but simply the English neighbour, could we expect Ireland to step up somewhat?


----------



## Kirkhill

TacticalTea said:


> Do you think unification would change that? If Britain does not have as much of a stake in Ireland's security anymore, and cooperation with NATO isn't synonymous to cooperation with the ''English occupier'', but simply the English neighbour, could we expect Ireland to step up somewhat?



The Micks are a curious bunch.  They will cheerfully take the Queen's Shilling while cursing her name if it gets them the price of a pint of Guiness.  The dynamic has worked for both sides for 400 years or more.


----------



## The Bread Guy

McG said:


> Wonder if we will see more of these acts of dissent.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian diplomat resigns over Ukraine war
> 
> 
> Boris Bondarev criticised the ‘aggressive war unleashed’ by Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.aljazeera.com


Guy posted his resignation on his LinkedIn account ....








						Sign Up | LinkedIn
					

500 million+ members | Manage your professional identity. Build and engage with your professional network. Access knowledge, insights and opportunities.




					www.linkedin.com


----------



## MilEME09

Another one..retired though working for Wagner


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1529102453916028928


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1529111069683236864


----------



## ueo

KevinB said:


> I look at voting records - and constantly berate my fellow Republicans if they act like imbeciles
> Look at Ukraine aid sponsorship and the Lend Lease Sponsorship bills in House and Senate - bipartisan and heavily supported.
> 
> The news seems to take Russian money to pitch divisionism these days.


Thanks, makes it a little clearer.


----------



## Remius

Canada sending more artillery to Ukraine, 'crucial' to fight against Russia: Anand
					

Canada is sending an additional 20,000 rounds of ammunition to Ukraine for the Ukrainian military to use in its ongoing defence against the Russians. This ammunition—155mm calibre, as well as fuses and charge bags—is being donated, but comes at a cost of $98 million, according to the federal...




					www.ctvnews.ca
				




Looks like more artillery ammo.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Remius said:


> Canada sending more artillery to Ukraine, 'crucial' to fight against Russia: Anand
> 
> 
> Canada is sending an additional 20,000 rounds of ammunition to Ukraine for the Ukrainian military to use in its ongoing defence against the Russians. This ammunition—155mm calibre, as well as fuses and charge bags—is being donated, but comes at a cost of $98 million, according to the federal...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Looks like more artillery ammo.


I mean, awesome for Ukraine, but can we see the plan to restock these items too? Does it exist?


----------



## MilEME09

rmc_wannabe said:


> I mean, awesome for Ukraine, but can we see the plan to restock these items too? Does it exist?


Probably but that information doesn't need to be released


----------



## McG

rmc_wannabe said:


> I mean, awesome for Ukraine, but can we see the plan to restock these items too? Does it exist?


The article states that all the ammunition in this announcement will be new purchases from the US. So we will not need to restock these 20k rounds of 155 mm.


----------



## NavyShooter

That makes it an easy solution - no need to involve our material movement system at all.  Nothing to pull out of Depot....just hand a cheque to the US and they tack on 20K or ammo to their shipments heading over.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1529158585300799488


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1529158585300799488


NYT should be investigated for ties to Russia... That editorial is disturbing to say the least.

Very last paragraph of that KI article, their words describing exactly how I feel about this whole thing: _*Ukraine is fighting this war on behalf of the free world – to make sure it remains free. The free world must at least try to match the Ukrainians’ bravery. *_


----------



## The Bread Guy

TacticalTea said:


> NYT should be investigated for ties to Russia... That editorial is disturbing to say the least.


It does seem to be going more than a bit isolationist, saying "whoa, guys, let's keep a grip on how much we help here."  If the UKR fight is as bipartisan in the U.S. as many I respect say, this is moving the NYT ship away from that crowd, for sure.  Also, while the editorial mentions food insecurity as a growing issue, it fails to mention this being part of the cause ....








						Satellite images appear to show Russian ships loading up with Ukrainian grain in Crimea
					

Russia's theft of Ukrainian grain appears to be ramping up as it continues its war on the country, according to new satellite photos of the Crimean port of Sevastopol.




					www.ctvnews.ca
				




Mind you, things evolve, too.  More than some now calling for the world to give 'er against USSR 2.0 seemed OK when POTUS45 was saying adjacent things about not helping fight Russia (all while "vacationing" Russian troops were invading/occupying bits of Ukraine supporting insurrectionist rebels & fighting Ukrainian troops in the east) & saying "Europe should be pulling more of the load."

Meanwhile, elsewhere in the 'hood ...








						Orban Imposes New State Of Emergency In Hungary, Saying Ukraine War Poses 'Constant Danger'
					

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has imposed a new state of emergency in the country, citing the war in Ukraine, which he said “poses a threat to our physical security.”




					www.rferl.org
				



... and some intriguing polling from UKR








						Poll Shows Near Even Split Among Ukrainians Over Joining NATO
					

A poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) shows that 39 percent of Ukrainians believe that joining NATO would guarantee the nation's security, while 42 percent believe that in the current environment settling for security guarantees may be acceptable.




					www.rferl.org
				







__





						Press releases and reports - Acceptability of refusing to join NATO in obtaining security guarantees from individual countries: results of a telephone survey conducted on 13-18 May 2022
					






					www.kiis.com.ua


----------



## Dana381

NavyShooter said:


> That makes it an easy solution - no need to involve our material movement system at all.  Nothing to pull out of Depot....just hand a cheque to the US and they tack on 20K or ammo to their shipments heading over.



If we have war stocks should we not send those and take the new stuff for ourselves lest ours expires. We know Ukraine will use the ammo in the near term. Also PJT can get nice pics of our C-17's delivering it.


----------



## KevinB

Dana381 said:


> If we have war stocks should we not send those and take the new stuff for ourselves lest ours expires. We know Ukraine will use the ammo in the near term. Also PJT can get nice pics of our C-17's delivering it.


That is what most folks do.  
   Logistically it is easy to just write us a check.  
 But from a long term standpoint- it makes sense to get rid of the older ammo and bring in new.   Mind you 20k rounds go pretty quick


----------



## McG

Dana381 said:


> If we have war stocks should we not send those and take the new stuff for ourselves lest ours expires. We know Ukraine will use the ammo in the near term. Also PJT can get nice pics of our C-17's delivering it.


We don’t have war stocks.


----------



## KevinB

McG said:


> We don’t have war stocks.


You may want to tack on another 20k for a weeks worth of War Stock…


----------



## McG

KevinB said:


> You may want to tack on another 20k for a weeks worth of War Stock…


If we think the next war might be against a modern enemy then (judging from the still ongoing fight in Ukraine) I think we might need more than a week of supplies in the go locker.  NATO has defined a number of days that a nation should look after itself before collective logistics kicks in. We need to cover at least those many days.


----------



## daftandbarmy

McG said:


> We don’t have war stocks.


----------



## The Bread Guy

With this guy in Ukraine's corner, wonder how many on-the-fencers are going to lean pro-Team USSR 2.0 now?








						Billionaire Soros links Ukraine, WWIII
					

Billionaire financier George Soros says Russia's invasion of Ukraine may have been the beginning of World War III so the best way to preserve free civilisation was to defeat President Vladimir Putin's forces.Soros, 91, a legendary hedge fund manager who earned fame by betting against the British...




					au.news.yahoo.com


----------



## Good2Golf

The Bread Guy said:


> With this guy in Ukraine's corner, wonder how many on-the-fencers are going to lean pro-Team USSR 2.0 now?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Billionaire Soros links Ukraine, WWIII
> 
> 
> Billionaire financier George Soros says Russia's invasion of Ukraine may have been the beginning of World War III so the best way to preserve free civilisation was to defeat President Vladimir Putin's forces.Soros, 91, a legendary hedge fund manager who earned fame by betting against the British...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> au.news.yahoo.com


To be honest, the only part really, where I depart from what Soros is saying, is where he talks about the Politburo, as though it exists in any meaningful fashion…which I don’t believe it does anymore, in the sense of the USSR 1.0 back room running things behind the Premier frontman.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> To be honest, the only part really, where I depart from what Soros is saying, is where he talks about the Politburo, as though it exists in any meaningful fashion…which I don’t believe it does anymore, in the sense of the USSR 1.0 back room running things behind the Premier frontman.


Agreed on the "USSR 1.0 nostalgic cohort", but you know how some people can be - if x is for it, I can't be _anything_ but against it.


----------



## lenaitch

brihard said:


> Out of curiosity, defend them from what? What military threat does Ireland feel it faces?


Many (not I) use the same argument about our defence spending.  It might be that they view their proximity to the UK like many Canadians view our proximity to the US.


----------



## Underway

Dana381 said:


> If we have war stocks should we not send those and take the new stuff for ourselves lest ours expires. We know Ukraine will use the ammo in the near term. Also PJT can get nice pics of our C-17's delivering it.


To complicated. Just buy stuff and send it.  CAF ammo expenditures are carefully tracked and used.  Do you really want to get bureaucratic with this? The more steps the more complications.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> That is what most folks do.
> Logistically it is easy to just write us a check.
> But from a long term standpoint- it makes sense to get rid of the older ammo and bring in new.   Mind you 20k rounds go pretty quick



20,000 Rounds
100 M777s
200 Rounds per Gun
100 minutes normal rate of 2 RPM
28 minutes max rate of 7 RPM


----------



## CBH99

The Bread Guy said:


> With this guy in Ukraine's corner, wonder how many on-the-fencers are going to lean pro-Team USSR 2.0 now?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Billionaire Soros links Ukraine, WWIII
> 
> 
> Billionaire financier George Soros says Russia's invasion of Ukraine may have been the beginning of World War III so the best way to preserve free civilisation was to defeat President Vladimir Putin's forces.Soros, 91, a legendary hedge fund manager who earned fame by betting against the British...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> au.news.yahoo.com


I know the media has focused heavily on Ukranian wins against Russian forces, the retaking of towns/villages/cities, regaining control of areas, pushing Russian forces back, completely disrupting their ability to resupply & maneuver, sinking of Russian ships, etc

Ukraine, by all measurable standards, has kicked the hell out of the Russians pound for pound.  The constant and massive inflow of weapons from the west has allowed Ukraine to restock vehicles & ammo faster than the Russians can - and has given Ukraine access to some of the best weaponry & assets the west has to offer.  (Javelin, StarStreak, NLAW, etc.  American intelligence & ISR capabilities, usage of privately owned satellites, etc)

In other words… how can the world tell Russia they don’t approve without actually telling Russia they don’t approve?  Oh, wait.  They have.  Loudly. 


BUT…


We can’t count Russia out of the fight just yet.  While morale is low, tactics & strategy have been poor, and Russian equipment isn’t performing anywhere near as scary as we thought it would - Russia still has tens of thousands of troops in country, an Air Force with decent aircraft and weapons, and a nuclear triad that I imagine is still quite capable. 

Is this the start of WW3?  I don’t think so. 

In WW2, there were very few countries not directly affected by the war.  Even India felt the direct consequences of what was happening in Europe, the same goes for Australia and what was happening with Japan in the Pacific. 

Does this same global ‘you’re involved whether you like it or not’ situation exist now?  Not really.  I’m sure there are plenty of countries outside of the Western Hemisphere that - while they don’t approve - aren’t currently affected all that much by events.  (Ignoring global commodity prices, ofcourse.)

I guess the good thing is that if preserving civilization means defeating Putin’s forces, this doesn’t seem like such a Goliath task anymore. 

Turns out he never could have steamrolled his way through 3 countries before NATO could respond - he barely made it halfway across 1…


As once said by some Badass USMC Commander to his troops before a deadly push… “_The enemy isn’t 10ft tall.  He’s 4’2” and he’s on a short leash, you’re gonna fuck him up_”


----------



## Czech_pivo

TacticalTea said:


> NYT should be investigated for ties to Russia... That editorial is disturbing to say the least.
> 
> Very last paragraph of that KI article, their words describing exactly how I feel about this whole thing: _*Ukraine is fighting this war on behalf of the free world – to make sure it remains free. The free world must at least try to match the Ukrainians’ bravery. *_


Remember, it was the NY Times that supported Durante in the 1920-30’s and his constant blathering about Stalin and how he was changing the world and the outright denial of the man-made famine in the Ukraine. Looks like history repeating itself again.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> That is what most folks do.
> Logistically it is easy to just write us a check.
> But from a long term standpoint- it makes sense to get rid of the older ammo and bring in new.   Mind you 20k rounds go pretty quick


When you’ve got only 40 guns, it can take a bit of time to go through 20,000 rounds…..well I guess 5 days if all 40 guns fire 100/day.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Czech_pivo said:


> When you’ve got only 40 guns, it can take a bit of time to go through 20,000 rounds…..well I guess 5 days if all 40 guns fire *100/day*.



Only 100/day? Gunners be like ...


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> When you’ve got only 40 guns, it can take a bit of time to go through 20,000 rounds…..well I guess 5 days if all 40 guns fire 100/day.


I don’t think you have 40 guns anyway at this point.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Soldier35 said:


> The Russian military used the Ukrainian captured anti-tank complex "Stugna-P" to strike at the fortified positions of the Ukrainian army ...


Running low on your own systems, are you?

Meanwhile, UK MoD update ....

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1529328745626075137... and how do you say "damned auto correct" in Ukrainian? 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1529206361338396672Other side of the exchange

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1529213759432011776


----------



## Dana381

Underway said:


> To complicated. Just buy stuff and send it.  CAF ammo expenditures are carefully tracked and used.  Do you really want to get bureaucratic with this? The more steps the more complications.


Didn't they recently have to dispose of expired ammo from war stocks that could have been used but didn't? Something is triggering my memory but I don't have time right now to search it.


----------



## Remius

The Bread Guy said:


> Running low on your own systems, are you?
> 
> Meanwhile, UK MoD update ....
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1529328745626075137... and how do you say "damned auto correct" in Ukrainian?
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1529206361338396672Other side of the exchange
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1529213759432011776


Thank you Justine?  Lol, I’m sure some people who have TDS will read into that as some sort of hidden slight.


----------



## KevinB

Remius said:


> Thank you Justine?  Lol, I’m sure some people who have TDS will read into that as some sort of hidden slight.


Keep in mind a Canadian report also called him Justine.


----------



## DBNSG

Well the shoe does fit some of the time.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Keep in mind a Canadian report also called him Justine.


Well done to those guys for THEIR spell checking, then!


----------



## tomydoom

brihard said:


> Out of curiosity, defend them from what? What military threat does Ireland feel it faces?


Well, I would say the situation is not unlike Canada’s. The main purpose of violating Irish territorial integrity, would be to access the larger neighbours.  Closest thing to a recent example would be a Russian plan to conduct a navel exercise near Irish waters.  These were only called off, when the Irish fisherman’s Union threatened to “get in the way”. The Irish navy a purely constabulary force and lacks any form of stand off weaponry.  If those fishing vessels had gotten themselves in trouble, there would have been nothing Ireland could have done to even “pretend” to intervene.


----------



## tomydoom

Czech_pivo said:


> Mad Icelandic fishermen.


Scottish, the Irish and  Scottish fishing authorities both claim jurisdiction over a small rock in the North Atlantic, which would impact their respective fishing rights.


----------



## Spencer100

TacticalTea said:


> NYT should be investigated for ties to Russia... That editorial is disturbing to say the least.
> 
> Very last paragraph of that KI article, their words describing exactly how I feel about this whole thing: _*Ukraine is fighting this war on behalf of the free world – to make sure it remains free. The free world must at least try to match the Ukrainians’ bravery. *_


You mean the same NYT that in 1930's said there was no famine in the Ukraine?  The same NYT that has supported the USSR/Russia from decades?


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1529452666102980608


----------



## Spencer100

Czech_pivo said:


> When you’ve got only 40 guns, it can take a bit of time to go through 20,000 rounds…..well I guess 5 days if all 40 guns fire 100/day.


Opps I just posted the same thing.  My internet love affair of your opinions continues LOL


----------



## Spencer100

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1529452666102980608


Yes but there is some change in thinking starting.  The NYT piece and the old warhorse Kissinger coming out supporting about a negotiated peace.  I suspect a change coming up.  The current narrative that inflation and economy problems are the wars fault is not sticking in the public's mind.  So I think you will see a push to end the war before the midterms.  They will pull out all the stops for the midterm.  Biden the peacemaker will be the new idea.


----------



## KevinB

Spencer100 said:


> Yes but there is some change in thinking starting.  The NYT piece and the old warhorse Kissinger coming out supporting about a negotiated peace.  I suspect a change coming up.  The current narrative that inflation and economy problems are the wars fault is not sticking in the public's mind.  So I think you will see a push to end the war before the midterms.  They will pull out all the stops for the midterm.  Biden the peacemaker will be the new idea.


Right now the only thing President Biden has going for him is support for Ukraine.
  It is the biggest unifying aspect between Republicans and Democrats - and for all the complaints about Inflation and Economy, everyone here hates Russia - except for the extreme fringe on both sides.

The flow of material to Ukraine is propping up DoD industry which has suffered a lot under COVID.

I'm not a President Biden fan, but I don't see him doing a 180 on his Russian position, after the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle, he needs to stay strong or the wolves will get him.


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> Right now the only thing President Biden has going for him is support for Ukraine.
> It is the biggest unifying aspect between Republicans and Democrats - and for all the complaints about Inflation and Economy, *everyone here hates Russia* - except for the extreme fringe on both sides.
> 
> The flow of material to Ukraine is propping up DoD industry which has suffered a lot under COVID.
> 
> I'm not a President Biden fan, but I don't see him doing a 180 on his Russian position, after the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle, he needs to stay strong or the wolves will get him.



Meanwhile, the Gamer-verse seems to have nailed it


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Running low on your own systems, are you?
> 
> Meanwhile, UK MoD update ....
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1529328745626075137... and how do you say "damned auto correct" in Ukrainian?
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1529206361338396672Other side of the exchange
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1529213759432011776


"Justine" - I love it


----------



## Kirkhill

tomydoom said:


> Scottish, the Irish and  Scottish fishing authorities both claim jurisdiction over a small rock in the North Atlantic, which would impact their respective fishing rights.



Whit dae ye mean?  There's nae dispute!  Rockall is Scottish.


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> Meanwhile, the Gamer-verse seems to have nailed it
> 
> View attachment 70980



Enough of the Trump stuff.  I've kept my peace on Biden and his Russian/Ukrainian/Chinese affairs.  And those predate Trump by a whiles.

Move on.


----------



## Kirkhill

Meanwhile the Ukrainians are claiming that the road to Lysychansk is still open and in use.









						Haidai refutes fake news about ‘Luhansk cauldron’: Lysychansk-Bakhmut highway remains open
					

Luhansk Regional Military Administration Head Serhii Haidai has refuted the fake news about Russians cutting off Luhansk Region from Ukraine and blocking the Lysychansk-Bakhmut highway. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukraine official rules out conflict freeze
					

Russia continues to spend huge resources proving to the world its right to kill Ukrainians, but Ukraine does not trade its territories, people, and sovereignty. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Kirkhill

Britain says idea of easing Russia sanctions to unblock grain exports from Ukraine off table
					

Britain's Defense Secretary Ben Wallace on Wednesday rejected the idea of lifting a number of Russia sanctions in return for opening humanitarian corridors for grain exports from Ukrainian seaports. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				












						Denmark’s defense ministry comments on Russian blockade of Ukrainian seaports
					

The Danish Ministry of Defense has expressed condemnation of Russia's aggression against Ukraine’s maritime shipment industry and support for imposing the most severe sanctions against the Russian Federation. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				




Denmark and Turkey are in positions to blockade the Russian exports.


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukraine government position on the situation in the field.









						Fierce battles raging in eastern Ukraine, Russians conduct offensive on several directions
					

In the Donetsk and Luhansk directions, Russian invaders are conducting offensive operations, attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces. Now Ukrainian defenders are fighting fierce battles to prevent the enemy from advancing deeper into the territory of Ukraine. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Kirkhill

I'm reluctant to take these "intercepts" at face value but there are a lot of them and they are not out of step with what other sources are suggesting.

Take it for what it is worth.



> *Quote* from a conversation between the aggressor and his wife: "There’s just about nothing left of the 58th Army. It was considered the toughest army in the Southern Military District. Bottom line, there’s almost nothing left of it.
> 
> "Valera Bakin served in the 58th Army. Not a single person from his company survived. Not one! In short, they were all killed. The whole company. We also have companies there that have been reduced to three or four persons."











						Russia’s “leading” 58th Army is destroyed in southern Ukraine - intercepted conversation
					

KATERYNA TYSHCHENKO - Tuesday, 24 May 2022, 21:46




					www.pravda.com.ua


----------



## Kirkhill

Multinational Naval Force for the Black Sea to break the blockade?









						World leaders discuss deploying naval coalition to the Black Sea to help ship Ukrainian grain - Splash247
					

World leaders are discussing sending warships to the Black Sea to ship Ukrainian grain overseas, a move previously dismissed by NATO commanders. With the war between Russia and Ukraine extending into its fourth month food prices have been leaping as the world seeks alternate supplies of grain...




					splash247.com


----------



## Spencer100

Kirkhill said:


> Multinational Naval Force for the Black Sea to break the blockade?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> World leaders discuss deploying naval coalition to the Black Sea to help ship Ukrainian grain - Splash247
> 
> 
> World leaders are discussing sending warships to the Black Sea to ship Ukrainian grain overseas, a move previously dismissed by NATO commanders. With the war between Russia and Ukraine extending into its fourth month food prices have been leaping as the world seeks alternate supplies of grain...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> splash247.com


Not without Turkey.  I imagine the price they would be asking will be huge.  EU membership? F35? Oil Pipelines? SC seats (lol)? Etc..... 

I honestly think the cost to Turkey over the long run would be high.  

Plus the Europeans could not run a taskforce without the USN.   It would take, subs, minesweepers, frigates, ASW destroyers. Aircraft ASW planes and helicopters.   Just the planning of a operation would be largest in living history for Europeans.  It would be something to see.  

You would have start in west Med.  The Russian have ships in the Med right now.  Assembly huge taskforce really a fleet of every type of ship.  Get it to Istanbul then a breakout into the Black Sea.  

I just don't see it.  I think the people talking about this don't understand what they are asking for.   I see many tens (hundreds?) of ships and aircraft.


----------



## KevinB

Spencer100 said:


> Not without Turkey.  I imagine the price they would be asking will be huge.  EU membership? F35? Oil Pipelines? SC seats (lol)? Etc.....
> 
> I honestly think the cost to Turkey over the long run would be high.
> 
> Plus the Europeans could not run a taskforce without the USN.   It would take, subs, minesweepers, frigates, ASW destroyers. Aircraft ASW planes and helicopters.   Just the planning of a operation would be largest in living history for Europeans.  It would be something to see.
> 
> You would have start in west Med.  The Russian have ships in the Med right now.  Assembly huge taskforce really a fleet of every type of ship.  Get it to Istanbul then a breakout into the Black Sea.
> 
> I just don't see it.  I think the people talking about this don't understand what they are asking for.   I see many tens (hundreds?) of ships and aircraft.


It's fairly easy to do. 
  The question is is the juice worth the squeeze?
I think Turkey would be happy with F-35's and EU membership (which would also help Ukraine).
  The issue comes down to the Black Sea isn't very big, and the risk of a significant incident between NATO and RUAF comes to bear - even by accident or misunderstanding.

It's easier for us just to Mark Russian assets and give Ukraine assets to remove them


----------



## Kirkhill

Response to Kissinger and Davos.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uxqd1y


----------



## Spencer100

KevinB said:


> It's fairly easy to do.
> The question is is the juice worth the squeeze?
> I think Turkey would be happy with F-35's and EU membership (which would also help Ukraine).
> The issue comes down to the Black Sea isn't very big, and the risk of a significant incident between NATO and RUAF comes to bear - even by accident or misunderstanding.
> 
> It's easier for us just to Mark Russian assets and give Ukraine assets to remove them


I agree with you about just give the Ukrainian the assets and let them do it.

But I think its much more than fairly easy.  Just the fleet breakout out of the Bosporus would be something. That operation would be large.  It would require ships and aircraft.  

The Black Sea

2 x Krivak Frigates
3 x Admiral Grigorovish Frigates
7 x Kilo SSK
3 X Grisha Corvettes
10 - 12 Missile Boats
Couple dozen other ships, minesweeper, etc.

Even if some of that fleet doesn't work it will still be a fight.


----------



## McG

Yes. We should reward Russia’s violence & aggression by giving them land.


----------



## KevinB

Oryx OS Confirmed RUAF losses today 

1x Su-25 strike aircraft (destroyed)
1x Ka-52 'Alligator' attack helicopter (destroyed)
2x T-72B3 MBT (1x destroyed, 1x captured)
4x T-72B MBT (3x destroyed. 1x abandoned)
2x T-72A MBT (1x abandoned, 1x captured)
2x T-64BV MBT (destroyed)
12x Unknown tank (destroyed)
2x 9P149 Shturm-S ATGM carrier (captured)
4x MT-LB AFV (destroyed)
2x BMP-2 IFV (1x destroyed, 1x abandoned)
1x BMD-2 IV (destroyed)
1x BMP-1AM IFV (destroyed)
28x BMP-1(P) IFV (21x destroyed, 7x abandoned)
1x GAZ Tigr-M IMV (destroyed)
1x BMP-1KSh command and staff vehicle (destroyed)
1x BREM-1 RV (destroyed)
1x PTS-3 tracked amphibious transport (destroyed)
1x PM floating bridge (destroyed)
1x BMK-460 towing and motor boat (abandoned)

22 Tanks, and 38 APC/IFV, that's hard to sustain even for Russia.

The entire list below 









						Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine
					






					www.oryxspioenkop.com


----------



## McG

Looks like Ukraine is destroying the most formidable army of 1973.


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> Oryx OS Confirmed RUAF losses today
> 
> 1x Su-25 strike aircraft (destroyed)
> 1x Ka-52 'Alligator' attack helicopter (destroyed)
> 2x T-72B3 MBT (1x destroyed, 1x captured)
> 4x T-72B MBT (3x destroyed. 1x abandoned)
> 2x T-72A MBT (1x abandoned, 1x captured)
> 2x T-64BV MBT (destroyed)
> 12x Unknown tank (destroyed)
> 2x 9P149 Shturm-S ATGM carrier (captured)
> 4x MT-LB AFV (destroyed)
> 2x BMP-2 IFV (1x destroyed, 1x abandoned)
> 1x BMD-2 IV (destroyed)
> 1x BMP-1AM IFV (destroyed)
> 28x BMP-1(P) IFV (21x destroyed, 7x abandoned)
> 1x GAZ Tigr-M IMV (destroyed)
> 1x BMP-1KSh command and staff vehicle (destroyed)
> 1x BREM-1 RV (destroyed)
> 1x PTS-3 tracked amphibious transport (destroyed)
> 1x PM floating bridge (destroyed)
> 1x BMK-460 towing and motor boat (abandoned)
> 
> 22 Tanks, and 38 APC/IFV, that's hard to sustain even for Russia.
> 
> The entire list below
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.oryxspioenkop.com


Mind you Oyrx took a week off two weeks ago and still hasn't caught up


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Mind you Oyrx took a week off two weeks ago and still hasn't caught up


The total isn't corrected yet -- but the daily tally is.


----------



## KevinB

McG said:


> Looks like Ukraine is destroying the most formidable army of 1973.


I suspect next week it will 1960's vintage stuff...


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> I suspect next week it will 1960's vintage stuff...


You mean the T-62s spotted in Luhansk after being taken out of storage? An M72 can kill those, from the front!


----------



## dapaterson

Shot, over.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1529569279506530304


----------



## GR66

Spencer100 said:


> Not without Turkey.  I imagine the price they would be asking will be huge.  EU membership? F35? Oil Pipelines? SC seats (lol)? Etc.....
> 
> I honestly think the cost to Turkey over the long run would be high.
> 
> Plus the Europeans could not run a taskforce without the USN.   It would take, subs, minesweepers, frigates, ASW destroyers. Aircraft ASW planes and helicopters.   Just the planning of a operation would be largest in living history for Europeans.  It would be something to see.
> 
> You would have start in west Med.  The Russian have ships in the Med right now.  Assembly huge taskforce really a fleet of every type of ship.  Get it to Istanbul then a breakout into the Black Sea.
> 
> I just don't see it.  I think the people talking about this don't understand what they are asking for.   I see many tens (hundreds?) of ships and aircraft.


Could be a huge propaganda win for China to offer to do it...for strictly humanitarian purposes of course!  They're not a party to the conflict and Russia wouldn't risk pissing China off by intervening militarily.  China could at the same time offer protection to "Russian" grain shipments from Crimea "for the sake of impartiality" which would give Russia an influx of foreign cash for the wheat they have stolen from Ukraine.  And by agreeing to China's offer they wouldn't look so much like the bad guy for holding the poor countries of the World hostage over blockaded food shipments.

China's international standing with the Third World (who most depend on that grain) would be greatly increased.  Russia would get some badly needed cash (as would Ukraine) and a World food crisis would be averted.  Sounds like it would be a huge win for team China.


----------



## RangerRay

KevinB said:


> Oryx OS Confirmed RUAF losses today
> 
> 1x Su-25 strike aircraft (destroyed)
> 1x Ka-52 'Alligator' attack helicopter (destroyed)
> 2x T-72B3 MBT (1x destroyed, 1x captured)
> 4x T-72B MBT (3x destroyed. 1x abandoned)
> 2x T-72A MBT (1x abandoned, 1x captured)
> 2x T-64BV MBT (destroyed)
> 12x Unknown tank (destroyed)
> 2x 9P149 Shturm-S ATGM carrier (captured)
> 4x MT-LB AFV (destroyed)
> 2x BMP-2 IFV (1x destroyed, 1x abandoned)
> 1x BMD-2 IV (destroyed)
> 1x BMP-1AM IFV (destroyed)
> 28x BMP-1(P) IFV (21x destroyed, 7x abandoned)
> 1x GAZ Tigr-M IMV (destroyed)
> 1x BMP-1KSh command and staff vehicle (destroyed)
> 1x BREM-1 RV (destroyed)
> 1x PTS-3 tracked amphibious transport (destroyed)
> 1x PM floating bridge (destroyed)
> 1x BMK-460 towing and motor boat (abandoned)
> 
> 22 Tanks, and 38 APC/IFV, that's hard to sustain even for Russia.
> 
> The entire list below
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.oryxspioenkop.com


Wait, was that just from  today?


----------



## MilEME09

RangerRay said:


> Wait, was that just from  today?


Indeed and remember 1 BTG = 10 tanks


----------



## KevinB

RangerRay said:


> Wait, was that just from  today?


Yup.


----------



## The Bread Guy

dapaterson said:


> Shot, over.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1529569279506530304


The man and/or his writers can be good with the zingers - some highlights of him speaking to German parliament in mid-March ....


> ... I am addressing you on behalf of older Ukrainians. Many survivors of World War II. Those who escaped during the occupation 80 years ago. Those who survived Babyn Yar.  Babyn Yar that President Steinmeier visited last year. On the 80th anniversary of the tragedy. And that was hit by Russian missiles now. It is exactly this place that was hit. And the missile strike killed the family that went to Babyn Yar, to the monument. Killed again, 80 years after ...





> ... It is difficult to defend Ukraine, Europe without what you can do. So that you don’t look over your shoulder even after this war. After the destruction of Kharkiv... For the second time in 80 years. After the bombing of Chernihiv, Sumy and Donbas. For the second time in 80 years. After thousands of people tortured and killed. For the second time in 80 years. Otherwise, what is the historical responsibility to the Ukrainian people still not redeemed for what happened 80 years ago? ...


Meanwhile, #PokemonInt ....








						SSU exposes russian special services on using smartphone games to recruit Ukrainian children (video)
					






					ssu.gov.ua


----------



## McG

GR66 said:


> by agreeing to China's offer they wouldn't look so much like the bad guy for


Russia launched an unprovoked war, is targeting civilians and urban centres, is conducting ethnic cleansing, and is engaging in rape & pillage. Putin does not look any less evil by “allowing” Ukraine to export wheat to a starving world.


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> Response to Kissinger and Davos.


And the NYT and Noam Chomsky


----------



## Skysix

McG said:


> Russia launched an unprovoked war, is targeting civilians and urban centres, is conducting ethnic cleansing, and is engaging in rape & pillage. Putin does not look any less evil by “allowing” Ukraine to export wheat to a starving world.


Would the world have trodden so lightly around Hitler in '45? Asked permission to put him on trial in a court Germany did not recognise? Suggested buying him off with Austria and Hungary?

No. But the goverments of the world will never do anything kinetic to wipe this disgracefull excuse for a human off the planet in fear that their leaders would recieve a polonium cocktail.

Come on Buffet, Bezos, Musk and even rhe Russian oligarchs. Put $100 million in an escrow account for the person/team (military included from any nation) that cuts off his head and places it on a stake in Kiev. 19th century punishment for 19th century fascist dictator. 21st century funding.

Hmmm. Maybe I should switch from Guiness Stout beer to Bud Lite water and chill out a bit.

SNS


----------



## daftandbarmy

Skysix said:


> And the NYT and Noam ChomskyView attachment 70995


----------



## Skysix

Why is the media STILL so farking stupid?!?

"But those deliveries, he said, "were possible until the information about the aid was disseminated. As a result, the enemy took measures to strengthen the air defense system, which made it difficult for us to carry out such actions and led to the loss of personnel and helicopters that evacuated the wounded."









						Inside Ukraine's Daring Helicopter Missions Into Russian-Occupied Mariupol
					

With Ukrainian troops besieged in a massive steel plant and under constant fire from Russian forces, helicopter crews sprung into action.




					www.thedrive.com
				




So with no more possibility of evac or supply they had to surrender to the tender mercies of the Chechen, DPR, LPR and Russian troops. Despite the Red Cross, I am unfortunately willing to bet 5-10% of them will dissapear.


----------



## daftandbarmy

RangerRay said:


> Wait, was that just from  today?


----------



## MilEME09

Skysix said:


> Why is the media STILL so farking stupid?!?
> 
> "But those deliveries, he said, "were possible until the information about the aid was disseminated. As a result, the enemy took measures to strengthen the air defense system, which made it difficult for us to carry out such actions and led to the loss of personnel and helicopters that evacuated the wounded."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Inside Ukraine's Daring Helicopter Missions Into Russian-Occupied Mariupol
> 
> 
> With Ukrainian troops besieged in a massive steel plant and under constant fire from Russian forces, helicopter crews sprung into action.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedrive.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So with no more possibility of evac or supply they had to surrender to the tender mercies of the Chechen, DPR, LPR and Russian troops. Despite the Red Cross, I am unfortunately willing to bet 5-10% of them will dissapear.


This is why media shouldn't be allowed on the front lines


----------



## Retired AF Guy

KevinB said:


> Oryx OS Confirmed RUAF losses today
> 
> 1x Su-25 strike aircraft (destroyed)


Related?? Another Russian General Reported Dead in Ukraine


----------



## Skysix

Retired AF Guy said:


> Related?? Another Russian General Reported Dead in Ukraine


Yes. Wagner pilot. Ret General.


----------



## Skysix

Retired AF Guy said:


> Related?? Another Russian General Reported Dead in Ukraine


Yes. Wagner pilot. Ret General.


----------



## Kirkhill

Somebody is playing games.  Its the political season.



			https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2022/05/24/massive_turns_in_opinion_on_dcs_response_to_russia_147644.html
		




> Massive Turns in Opinion on D.C.'s Response to Russia



Reads the Headline.



> Americans are becoming less supportive of punishing Russia for launching its invasion of Ukraine if it comes at the expense of the U.S. economy, a sign of rising anxiety over inflation and other challenges, according to a new poll.



But



> broad support for U.S. sanctions has not faltered





> the balance of opinion on prioritizing sanctions over the economy has shifted...
> 
> Now 45% of U.S. adults say the nation’s bigger priority should be sanctioning Russia as effectively as possible, while slightly more — 51% — say it should be limiting damage to the U.S. economy.
> 
> In April, those figures were exactly reversed. In March, shortly after Russia attacked Ukraine, a clear majority — 55% — said the bigger priority should be sanctioning Russia as effectively as possible.



March - 55% supported sanctions
April - 51% supported sanctions
May - 45% supported sanctions

So the massive swing, over 2 or 3 months is 5% of the population on the narrow issue of sanctions



> The poll shows wide majorities of U.S. adults continue to favor imposing sanctions on Russia, banning oil imported from Russia and providing weapons to Ukraine. And most U.S. adults continue to say the U.S. should have a role in the war between Russia and Ukraine: 32% say the U.S. should have a major role in the conflict, while 49% say it should have a minor role.


 
81% say the US should have a role in the war?



> Forty-four percent of Americans say they favor sending funds, while 32% are opposed and 23% are neither in favor nor opposed.





			https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2022/05/24/massive_turns_in_opinion_on_dcs_response_to_russia_147644.html
		


Americans are onside.
But there is a faction that seems to want to change that.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Oh what a tangled web of who has to give who permission ....








						Israel rejects U.S. request to approve missile transfer to Ukraine
					

The Spike missiles are made in Germany with Israeli technology and under an Israeli license.




					www.axios.com


----------



## Kirkhill

I foresee a whole lot of contracts being rewritten with a lot of National Security exceptions.


----------



## Spencer100

MilEME09 said:


> You mean the T-62s spotted in Luhansk after being taken out of storage? An M72 can kill those, from the front!


I hope the Russians keep the new, reformed and re-equiped conscripted BTGs with decade conforming uniforms and equipment.  The T-62 with 1960's trucks and uniforms, when they get to the T-55. I think the troops would be fetching in fifties styles.  You know for consistency. 
1970s

1960's

1940s


----------



## daftandbarmy

The Bread Guy said:


> Oh what a tangled web of who has to give who permission ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Israel rejects U.S. request to approve missile transfer to Ukraine
> 
> 
> The Spike missiles are made in Germany with Israeli technology and under an Israeli license.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.axios.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

Skysix said:


> Yes. Wagner pilot. Ret General.



They could bury him in that hat


----------



## Skysix

daftandbarmy said:


> They could bury him in that hat


Compensating for something.....


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> Americans are onside.
> But there is a faction that seems to want to change that.


Yeah Russia…


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> Yeah Russia…


And their feelers in Germany, Hungary,and turkey


----------



## The Bread Guy

Team USSR 2.0 really DOES seem to have an "information machine" - this from TASS (archived link to full TASS article here)....

Anyone else picture this?


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> There were shots of the retreat of individual units of the Ukrainian army from the territory of the Red Estuary. The settlement of Krasny Liman is of strategic importance in Ukraine, since it opens up directions for advancing towards Slavyansk with Kramatorsk and towards the grouping of Kiev forces concentrated near Lisichansk and Severodonetsk.


 
@Soldier35 You seem to have a better grasp of tactics than Gen. Gerasimov.  

Perhaps if you let us know who your supervisor is, we can put in a good word for you, and you could get a promotion?  

We could start big…ask for your promotion to Colonel-General, and negotiate lower as required, hopefully nothing less than Major-General. 👍🏼 

Are you up for it?  You might even get a nice cottage in Sochi with the promotion.  Let us know what you think.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> @Soldier35 You seem to have a better grasp of tactics than Gen. Gerasimov.
> 
> Perhaps if you let us know who your supervisor is, we can put in a good word for you, and you could get a promotion?
> 
> We could start big…ask for your promotion to Colonel-General, and negotiate lower as required, hopefully nothing less than Major-General. 👍🏼
> 
> Are you up for it?  You might even get a nice cottage in Sochi with the promotion.  Let us know what you think.


Warning, though, @Soldier35 - the new job may involve more travel to newly liberated (and still-to-be-liberated) parts of Ukraine


----------



## The Bread Guy

The Bread Guy said:


> Team USSR 2.0 really DOES seem to have an "information machine" - this from TASS (archived link to full TASS article here)....
> View attachment 71005
> Anyone else picture this?
> View attachment 71006


And if you want to see what these rigs look like, St. Javelin shares a video peek via FB here.


----------



## Spencer100

The Bread Guy said:


> Team USSR 2.0 really DOES seem to have an "information machine" - this from TASS (archived link to full TASS article here)....
> View attachment 71005
> Anyone else picture this?
> View attachment 71006


But that NKVD look is what they should be going for.  Nothing says I come in peace to liberate you like black leather.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> This is why media shouldn't be allowed on the front lines





MilEME09 said:


> This is why media shouldn't be allowed on the front lines


Assuming, of course, it was_ media_ that was doing the "dissemination" - after all, early on in the fight (day 13 or so), UKR's DefMin seemed to be talking to more than just the media about "loose lips sink ships" (links to Google translation of UKR statement)...


> ... I appeal to everyone. Please do not spread the word that certain countries provide weapons to our country. Refrain from commenting on this. Reserve the right to speak on these topics only to officials.
> 
> I understand people's desire to share the good news. But sometimes it creates an informational background that negatively affects the result.
> 
> This can make it difficult for our army to gain additional capabilities that it simply needs to gain. As a result, Ukraine may suffer losses that we could have avoided and should avoid!
> 
> All information that can be published in agreement with the partners, we will be sure to publish in a timely manner. The enemy does not have to know what to expect. Let it be an unpleasant surprise for him ...


Remember these posters from WW2?

View attachment 71015


----------



## KevinB

Society is now truly in a different age that WW2.
   So many Military forces refuse to remove civilian comms from their soldiers that COMSEC issues about - just having a phone accessing a tower will give too much away in some situations.
   It's much better to have no access in theater - or control via something like a Sat phone controlled by higher so communications can be managed -- snail mail was so much easier to censor...


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Society is now truly in a different age that WW2.
> So many Military forces refuse to remove civilian comms from their soldiers that COMSEC issues about - just having a phone accessing a tower will give too much away in some situations.
> It's much better to have no access in theater - or control via something like a Sat phone controlled by higher so communications can be managed -- snail mail was so much easier to censor...


And it only takes one mouthy person pissed at a situation (lotsa people on all sides in that situation) beaking near someone who doesn't think the Russians are all that bad (whose population, let's not forget, is still above zero), right?  Way more ways than just media for stuff to get out, like it or not.


----------



## Kirkhill

Interesting appreciation of the situation by the British Forces network






Two observations - "not infantry...blokes with rifles"

And this



Lots of tubes.
Lots of rounds.
Effective?


----------



## AlexanderM

Good news!









						US preparing to approve advanced long-range rocket system for Ukraine
					

The Biden administration is preparing to step up the kind of weaponry it is offering Ukraine by sending advanced, long-range rocket systems that are now the top request from Ukrainian officials, multiple officials say.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Both sides now, for the gunners


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uycrzz


----------



## suffolkowner

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1529848346453549056
I guess Poland doesnt want Russia getting any ideas.

Can we get 50?


----------



## Kirkhill

Infantry in the woods.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uyelde


----------



## rmc_wannabe

suffolkowner said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1529848346453549056
> I guess Poland doesnt want Russia getting any ideas.
> 
> Can we get 50?


How does one say "Fuck everyone and everything in that 1 km Grid Square" in Polish? I imagine there's a "kurwa" or two involved...


----------



## MilEME09

rmc_wannabe said:


> How does one say "Fuck everyone and everything in that 1 km Grid Square" in Polish? I imagine there's a "kurwa" or two involved...


Grid square? With 500 try everything in the grid zone designator


----------



## AlexanderM

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1529780002065195008


----------



## suffolkowner

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1529933522756050945
stuff like this only helps keep the weapons coming to Ukraine


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukrainian 79th Air Assault Brigade bugging out of Lyman by BTR80.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uy5nwr


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1529991110067736582


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1530055732271452161


----------



## The Bread Guy

Bold strategy ....


> Western allies are considering whether to allow Russian oligarchs to buy their way out of sanctions and using the money to rebuild Ukraine, according to government officials familiar with the matter.
> 
> Canadian Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland proposed the idea at a G-7 finance ministers’ meeting in Germany last week.
> 
> Freeland raised the issue after oligarchs spoke to her about it, one official said. The Canadian minister knows some Russian oligarchs from her time as a journalist in Moscow.
> 
> The official said the Ukrainians were aware of the discussions. The official said it’s also in the West’s interests to have prominent oligarchs dissociate themselves from Russian President Vladimir Putin while at the same time providing funding for Ukraine.
> 
> “We would not be talking about this if there wasn’t some comfort on the part of the Ukrainians,” the official said. “We need to know that it works for them, too.”


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1530115252100243457


----------



## MilEME09

Combat casual


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1530205408761192448


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> Combat casual
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1530205408761192448


Expect the “Rouleau Roll” come warmer summer temperatures. 👍🏼 😎


----------



## AlexanderM

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1530342112591585280


----------



## MilEME09

AlexanderM said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1530342112591585280


Remember 9 times out of 10 if the US announces it, it's already in theatre


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1530427088976617472


----------



## Furniture

MilEME09 said:


> Combat casual
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1530205408761192448


I remember my first contact dearly, I was half way through a Chicken Tetrazzini MRE.. I managed to get dressed, fire up the Bison, and do a radio check, before I realized I hadn't put my MRE down. 

I respect his dedication to the chips!


----------



## The Bread Guy

UK MoD:  stand by for river crossing ...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1530422851127369744


----------



## The Bread Guy

Local media covering local folks helping out in UKR








						Canadian Combat Vet - fought ISIS, now using skills to support Ukraine
					

In Saskatchewan, a Facebook group - “Saskatchewan Hosts Displaced Ukrainians,” links Saskatchewan residents offering housing and employment to Ukrainians fleeing the war. Fundraising events such as the Stand with Ukraine Benefit Day on June 12th in Regina will see proceeds going to displaced...




					ca.news.yahoo.com
				











						Kenora paramedic leads team to Ukraine - Part 1: Journey to the border
					

Disclaimer: This article is the first part of a four-part series. This series will discuss sensitive matters pertaining to the ongoing war in Ukraine.  As the bombs began to fall on Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities, one Kenora paramedic felt an overwhelming need to help.  The tension...




					www.kenoraonline.com
				











						Kenora paramedic leads team to Ukraine - Part 2: Life in the warzone
					

Disclaimer: This article is the second part of a four-part series. This series will discuss sensitive matters pertaining to the ongoing war in Ukraine. Click here to read Kenora paramedic leads team to Ukraine - Part 1: Journey to the border. When Jordan Searle and his team of military friends...




					www.kenoraonline.com
				











						Kenora paramedic leads team in Ukraine - Part three: The aftermath of Bucha and Irpin
					

Disclaimer: This article is the third part of a four-part series. This series will discuss sensitive matters pertaining to the ongoing war in Ukraine such as brutality, murder, and sexual assault. Please read with discretion.  After spending weeks in Kyiv setting up a make-shift trauma clinic...




					www.kenoraonline.com
				











						Kenora paramedic leads team to Ukraine - Part 4: How you can help
					

Disclaimer: This article is the last part of a four-part series. This series will discuss sensitive matters pertaining to the ongoing war in Ukraine.  After spending weeks in Ukraine amidst the ongoing war, Jordan Searle, a local paramedic with Ornge Air ambulance, is sharing his story in hopes...




					www.kenoraonline.com


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Furniture said:


> I remember my first contact dearly, I was half way through a Chicken Tetrazzini MRE.. I managed to get dressed, fire up the Bison, and do a radio check, before I realized I hadn't put my MRE down.
> 
> I respect his dedication to the chips!


I wouldn't have put it down either. Tetrazzini is one of the few pasta rations that actually taste half decent, in both IMP and MRE form.


----------



## MilEME09

Reportedly a Ukrainian counter attack has occurred in the south


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1530559810579705857


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> Combat casual
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1530205408761192448



Excellent product placement


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> Remember 9 times out of 10 if the US announces it, it's already in theatre



Hopefully they've learned their lesson since the 'fighter jet fiasco' earlier in the campaign.


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> Combat casual
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1530205408761192448


Bet you can’t eat just one.


----------



## suffolkowner

daftandbarmy said:


> Hopefully they've learned their lesson since the 'fighter jet fiasco' earlier in the campaign.


There is the missing/destroyed Azerbaijani Mig 29's



			https://avia-pro.net/news/otpravlennye-azerbaydzhanom-na-ukrainu-istrebiteli-mogli-byt-unichtozheny


----------



## Blackadder1916

daftandbarmy said:


> Excellent product placement





brihard said:


> Bet you can’t eat just one.



But what is the flavour (and of course the brand) that he just can't put down?



I'm guessing bacon flavour









						Snacks, sweets and chips, Crisps and snacks, Chips , Люкс, ❤️ home delivery from the store Zakaz.ua
					

Snacks, sweets and chips, Crisps and snacks, Chips , Люкс, Prices as in the store ✔️Without minimum order amount 👌Only fresh products. ✅Buy groceries online with home delivery!




					zakaz.ua


----------



## Spencer100

Blackadder1916 said:


> But what is the flavour (and of course the brand) that he just can't put down?
> 
> View attachment 71056
> 
> I'm guessing bacon flavour
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Snacks, sweets and chips, Crisps and snacks, Chips , Люкс, ❤️ home delivery from the store Zakaz.ua
> 
> 
> Snacks, sweets and chips, Crisps and snacks, Chips , Люкс, Prices as in the store ✔️Without minimum order amount 👌Only fresh products. ✅Buy groceries online with home delivery!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> zakaz.ua



Crab? Lamb? And Sour Cream and Mushroom!  Need to try some of those!


----------



## AlexanderM

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1530606434869706752


----------



## WLSC

daftandbarmy said:


> Excellent product placement


I shown the picture to my wife, she had the same bag in her hand 😂


----------



## NavyShooter

@Soldier35  is this you?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kremlin info-machine on how world food issues are the West's fault & how USSR 2.0 can help (archived link from Kremlin readout of chat w/FRA & DEU's leaders) ...


> ... Vladimir Putin explained the real reasons for the unstable food supplies, saying that the disruptions were due to Western countries’ erroneous economic and financial policies, as well as their anti-Russia sanctions. He substantiated his statements with evidence and specific data. Russia, on the other hand, is ready to help find options for unhindered grain exports, including the export of Ukrainian grain from the Black Sea ports. Increasing the supplies of Russian fertilisers and agricultural produce will also help reduce tensions in the global food market, but that will definitely require the lifting of the relevant sanctions ...


----------



## Mills Bomb

NavyShooter said:


> @Soldier35  is this you?
> 
> View attachment 71075


Pretty funny, but it's of course fake news, Tamiya has announced no such kit, but I hope they do. These figures were one-offs by a modeller who posts a lot on social media.


----------



## Good2Golf

Mills Bomb said:


> Pretty funny, but it's of course fake news, Tamiya has announced no such kit, but I hope they do. These figures were one-offs by a modeller who posts a lot on social media.


The lack of a washing machine cast doubt on the validity of the article. 😉


----------



## MilEME09

Good2Golf said:


> The lack of a washing machine cast doubt on the validity of the article. 😉


That comes with the Ural kit


----------



## Zipperhead99

Two separate articles, but both provide some interesting analysis






						Institute for the Study of War
					

Russian President Vladimir Putin is inflicting unspeakable suffering on Ukrainians and demanding horrible sacrifices of his own people in an effort to seize a city that does not merit the cost, even for him. The Russian invasion of Ukraine that aimed to




					www.understandingwar.org
				












						Why Is the Kremlin Silent About Attacks on Russian Territory?
					

At dawn on Thursday (May 19), an ethanol plant in the Russian village of Tyotkino, in Kursk Oblast, near the Ukrainian border, came under artillery fire for the second day in a row. One person died in the attack (TASS, May 19). On Wednesday, the villages of Solokhi and Bezymeno, in neighboring...




					jamestown.org


----------



## The Bread Guy

Bad news for the security service boss of Kharkiv - this from UKR Pres's end-of-day speech (highlights mine) ....


> ... I held a meeting with the leadership of the region and the city. Thanked them for being and remaining together with the people of Kharkiv, together with Ukraine. And - what is very important now - together with each other. They have one hundred percent cooperation - the army, the police, the mayor of Kharkiv, the regional state administration - everyone really works for victory and does it very effectively.
> 
> *Unfortunately, this cannot be said about the local leadership of the Security Service of Ukraine. I arrived. Clarified the situation. Dismissed the head of the Security Service of the region. For not working to defend the city from the first days of a full-scale war, but thinking only of himself personally. What were the motives? Law enforcement officers will find out* ...


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> Since March of this year, Russia began using Su-57 aircraft in Ukraine, TASS reported. Although the bulk of the Ukrainian air defense launchers have already been disabled, there are still a number of S-300 air defense systems, Buk air defense systems and a large number of MANPADS. Su-57s in Ukraine “operate outside the zone of active destruction by air defense systems, using long-range missile weapons of the R-37M missile, with a flight range of 200 km.


@Soldier35, so Russia has the amazing stealth fighter jet Su-57, but the VKS pilots are too scared to come close to UKR air Defence systems? 🤔  That seems to make all the Rubles that Russia spent developing the Su-57 to be a waste of money, no?


----------



## RaceAddict

Good2Golf said:


> @Soldier35, so Russia has the amazing stealth fighter jet Su-57, but the VKS pilots are too scared to come close to UKR air Defence systems? 🤔  That seems to make all the Rubles that Russia spent developing the Su-57 to be a waste of money, no?



Well the entire VKS only has 6 of them, so they have to use 'em sparingly.


----------



## RaceAddict

Soldier35 said:


> Since March of this year, Russia began using Su-57 aircraft in Ukraine, TASS reported. Although the bulk of the Ukrainian air defense launchers have already been disabled, there are still a number of S-300 air defense systems, Buk air defense systems and a large number of MANPADS. Su-57s in Ukraine “operate outside the zone of active destruction by air defense systems, using long-range missile weapons of the R-37M missile, with a flight range of 200 km.



Doing the math here:

Your _brand-new_, 5th generation stealth jet, first delivered in December of 2020 is threatened by a surface to air missile system designed 50'ish years ago?

#plothole


----------



## Skysix

Ukraine - Superthread
					

Remember 9 times out of 10 if the US announces it, it's already in theatre   Hopefully they've learned their lesson since the 'fighter jet fiasco' earlier in the campaign.




					army.ca


----------



## SupersonicMax

RaceAddict said:


> Doing the math here:
> 
> Your _brand-new_, 5th generation stealth jet, first delivered in December of 2020 is threatened by a surface to air missile system designed 50'ish years ago?
> 
> #plothole


A SAM system they designed nonetheless.


----------



## Skysix

Disregard my last: should have been The War Zone article on western microchips in Russan hi-tech


----------



## AlexanderM

Word is the Russians are not happy!! 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1531100802797867009


----------



## KevinB

AlexanderM said:


> Word is the Russians are not happy!!
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1531100802797867009


Russia isn’t concerned so much with MLRS and HiMARS on its own.  Yes the rocket range and weight of fire is impressive, but it’s the fact that ATACMS and PrSM can be loaded on those plaforms.  
   ATACMS offers a significant increase in range - even if we stick with the ~499km OS range, and ignore that the current stock was improved significantly with propellant changes when we opted out of INF (which banned 500-5,500km missiles)

If you put a ATACMS in some areas of Ukraine then all of Belarus, the occupied areas of Ukraine and a lot of tasty bits of Russia become targets.


----------



## Skysix

KevinB said:


> Russia isn’t concerned so much with MLRS and HiMARS on its own.  Yes the rocket range and weight of fire is impressive, but it’s the fact that ATACMS and PrSM can be loaded on those plaforms.
> ATACMS offers a significant increase in range - even if we stick with the ~499km OS range, and ignore that the current stock was improved significantly with propellant changes when we opted out of INF (which banned 500-5,500km missiles)
> 
> If you put a ATACMS in some areas of Ukraine then all of Belarus, the occupied areas of Ukraine and a lot of tasty bits of Russia become targets.


But Russia isn't at war with anybody so what is the problem? 🤗


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> Russia isn’t concerned so much with MLRS and HiMARS on its own.  Yes the rocket range and weight of fire is impressive, but it’s the fact that ATACMS and PrSM can be loaded on those plaforms.
> ATACMS offers a significant increase in range - even if we stick with the ~499km OS range, and ignore that the current stock was improved significantly with propellant changes when we opted out of INF (which banned 500-5,500km missiles)
> 
> If you put a ATACMS in some areas of Ukraine then all of Belarus, the occupied areas of Ukraine and a lot of tasty bits of Russia become targets.


Which would allow strikes at logistics hubs in Russian territory that feed the Donbas


----------



## rmc_wannabe

I think Russia is most upset that HIMARS and MLRS will bring the War to Russia; which was very much never a consideration during the crayon sessions that were Putin's War Cabinet


----------



## The Bread Guy

rmc_wannabe said:


> I think Russia is most upset that HIMARS and MLRS will bring the War to Russia; which was very much never a consideration during the crayon sessions that were Putin's War Cabinet


Mind you, if USSR 2.0 leadership is as ornery as some say, it would also give them an excuse to bring the fight to other "depots supporting the other side" areas, too, if their own rear areas are attacked in any significant way.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1531307146146611200


----------



## AlexanderM

Now looks like the first report was not accurate! 









						U.S. will not send Ukraine rocket systems that can reach Russia, says Biden
					

The United States will not send Ukraine rocket systems that can reach into Russia, President Joe Biden said on Monday, as Ukraine pushes for longer-range weapons system to help in its fight.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## KevinB

AlexanderM said:


> Now looks like the first report was not accurate!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> U.S. will not send Ukraine rocket systems that can reach Russia, says Biden
> 
> 
> The United States will not send Ukraine rocket systems that can reach into Russia, President Joe Biden said on Monday, as Ukraine pushes for longer-range weapons system to help in its fight.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


I think it’s more of a ATACMS, PrSM issue than the launcher themselves. 
  The M30 and M31 series of rockets are a 60-70km range which I don’t think are a concern here.

Still a reversal though (and concerning) as last week ATACMS where pretty much a done deal here.


----------



## Haggis

KevinB said:


> I think it’s more of a ATACMS, PrSM issue than the launcher themselves.
> The M30 and M31 series of rockets are a 60-70km range which I don’t think are a concern here.
> 
> Still a reversal though (and concerning) as last week ATACMS where pretty much a done deal here.


The biggest concern may be the US's fear of enthusiastic Ukrainian use.  It will be very tempting to use a system which can easily reach into Mother Russia to do exactly that.  Of course, as The Bread Guy noted above, temptation in Russia for retaliatory strikes on NATO territory - including the CONUS, as some Russian lawmakers have demanded - will be quite high.


----------



## KevinB

Haggis said:


> The biggest concern may be the US's fear of enthusiastic Ukrainian use.  It will be very tempting to use a system which can easily reach into Mother Russia to do exactly that.  Of course, as The Bread Guy noted above, temptation in Russia for retaliatory strikes on NATO territory - including the CONUS, as some Russian lawmakers have demanded - will be quite high.


Does Russia want to exist at the end? That’s the question we should be asking Russian lawmakers.  

    As far as ATACMS go, there aren’t enough missiles in inventory to cause major issues in Russia and PrSM isn’t fully fielded yet in US inventory so it’s not going.  

However Russia seems to be be intent on imploding without ATACMS being fielded to Ukraine anyway.


----------



## RangerRay

KevinB said:


> I think it’s more of a ATACMS, PrSM issue than the launcher themselves.
> The M30 and M31 series of rockets are a 60-70km range which I don’t think are a concern here.
> 
> Still a reversal though (and concerning) as last week ATACMS where pretty much a done deal here.


Even if the Ukrainians had bottle rockets, technically they could roll up to the border in some places an launch rockets into Russia. Just saying’…

I was reading an article yesterday discussing the odd situation of Russia not wanting to discuss clear cases of Ukrainian artillery and air strikes on targets in Russia. The conventional wisdom is it would give the Russians a chance to cry victim and justify a higher level of mobilization. Instead, they are radio silent.


----------



## AlexanderM

KevinB said:


> I think it’s more of a ATACMS, PrSM issue than the launcher themselves.
> The M30 and M31 series of rockets are a 60-70km range which I don’t think are a concern here.
> 
> Still a reversal though (and concerning) as last week ATACMS where pretty much a done deal here.


If the Ukrainians get the 60-70km range, my understanding is they will at least be able to outrange the Russian artillery, which would still be a huge win!! Yes?


----------



## KevinB

RangerRay said:


> Even if the Ukrainians had bottle rockets, technically they could roll up to the border in some places an launch rockets into Russia. Just saying’…
> 
> I was reading an article yesterday discussing the odd situation of Russia not wanting to discuss clear cases of Ukrainian artillery and air strikes on targets in Russia. The conventional wisdom is it would give the Russians a chance to cry victim and justify a higher level of mobilization. Instead, they are radio silent.


It shows weakness and an admission they aren’t as deep in Ukraine or in control as they
Claim.


----------



## KevinB

AlexanderM said:


> If the Ukrainians get the 60-70km range, my understanding is they will at least be able to outrange the Russian artillery, which would still be a huge win!! Yes?


They already outrange most of the RUAF artillery.   Russia simply has a slew of artillery.  
 Doctrine wise they have always been exceptionally heavy in Arty.  So even outranging then doesn’t always give advantages due to their mass.   

MLRS just allows them a great degree of precision and weight of fire, plus rapid mobility.


----------



## Haggis

KevinB said:


> Does Russia want to exist at the end? That’s the question we should be asking Russian lawmakers.


Those advocating for a strike on the CONUS, either conventional or nuclear, are betting that the current US administration doesn't have the stomach for a MAD likely conflict.


----------



## KevinB

Haggis said:


> Those advocating for a strike on the CONUS, either conventional or nuclear, are betting that the current US administration doesn't have the stomach for a MAD likely conflict.


Or are foolishly believing their nuclear Arsenal is in decent shape???
  Very embarrassing to get a whoops when trying to use a rusty saber, but it’s life ending when the hilt falls off and your enemies didn’t.


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> Or are foolishly believing their nuclear Arsenal is in decent shape???
> Very embarrassing to get a whoops when trying to use a rusty saber, but it’s life ending when the hilt falls off and your enemies didn’t.


Rumour has it that most RU warheads’ tritium dose has long expired so at the very least, yields are questionable.


----------



## KevinB

Good2Golf said:


> Rumour has it that most RU warheads’ tritium dose has long expired so at the very least, yields are questionable.


ED for nations  

The great fizzle of 2022.


----------



## McG

Good2Golf said:


> Rumour has it that most RU warheads’ tritium dose has long expired so at the very least, yields are questionable.


Partial detonation gives less blast but a whole lot more contamination.  Not sure which would be worse in the long run.


----------



## The Bread Guy

RangerRay said:


> ... I was reading an article yesterday discussing the odd situation of Russia not wanting to discuss clear cases of Ukrainian artillery and air strikes on targets in Russia. The conventional wisdom is it would give the Russians a chance to cry victim and justify a higher level of mobilization. Instead, they are radio silent.


Not _completely_ radio silent (Google search results for "Belgorod" - near-the-UKR-border town - and "shelling"), but for SURE not playing the "victim of UKR strikes" card as a trump card in the narrative at this point.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Tom Cooper sends....

Ukraine War, 26–29 May 2022​Good morning everybody!

*STRATEGIC*

Amid reports about USA preparing deliveries of M142 HIMARS to Ukraine, Putin is said to have declared delivery of such systems for ‘Red Line’. Unclear what kind of Red Line and what would be the consequences.

Deliveries of M777s are coming forward relatively slowly: 2 battalions with a total of 18 pieces are in operation, but the rest of deliveries seem not to be even in Ukraine as of yet. As of this week, there were still more of Estonian- and Italian-supplied FH70s around the battlefield.

After three months of patiently waiting for the German Chancellor Scholz and his government to do more than help Ukraine with money, I’m starting to join those insisting the same is dragging its feet in this regards. After all, all the promised deliveries of heavy arms — even those including Germany providing arms to countries like, say, Poland or Slovenia, so these can send their ‘Soviet designed’ tanks other stuff to Ukraine — have failed to materialise. Indeed, on 27 May, Scholz began babbling on Twitter about ‘shall violence be countered by violence’, ‘can there be peace without arms’… and similar nonsense. Please, somebody be so kind and slap him in the face: perhaps he’s going to wake up from that condition…

The overall commander of RFA units in the Donbass area is now said to be another officer from the Far East District, Colonel-General Gennady Zhidko. Is said to be another ‘veteran of Syria’, but I do not recall to have heard of him before: probably served there after 2017. BTW, I doubt this means that Dvornikov is now ‘out’: rather that he’s in overall command of the RFA in Ukraine, and Zhidko in control of the Donbass area, ‘only’: would say that this turned out to be necessary following the failure to coordinate the crossing of the Siversky Donets in the Bilohorivka area, with the breakthrough at Popasna (was a — very — costly failure).

The debate in the USA is now about how the Russians are learning from their experiences, and going to continue advancing in the short term, but can’t win in the long term…. Hm… I do not see the Russians learning anything at all. For the start, they have a massive problem with the necessity to keep Putin’s favourites in command. OK, now they seem to be trying to ‘avoid’ related issues by appointing generals from the Far East District: supposedly, these have least political aspirations and no contacts in Moscow, and thus do not represent a threat for Putin’s regime. However, there is no indication they are improving at operational- or tactical levels. The story with massive concentrations of artillery to achieve this or that — like at Lyman, the last few days, just for example — is nothing new: they were doing this during the Second World War, in Afghanistan, in Ethiopia and Angola (as advisors), in Ukraine of 2014–2015, and Syria of 2015–2018. Following up by Spetsnaz is nothing new at least since Afghanistan of the 1980s, either. At most, they have learned that the only way forward left is one of securing areas that have a good railway network (or are near such areas). They might have learned they have the advantage whenever the Ukrainian forces are ‘fixed’ in specific villages and/or towns. However, as soon as Ukrainians start to manoeuvre, the RFA artillery is behaving like an elephant in a china store, and simply finding no solution. They are poor in counter-battery-business, too — principally because Ukrainians are widely dispersing their artillery, and constantly moving it … with other words: the Russians are best compared to Kissinger (OK, OK: perhaps to Scholz and SPD, too).

Finally, there’s still a lots of talk about arrival of that train loaded with T-62s in Melitupol. Well, don’t forget that few days before there were reports about that convoy of 11km length full of much more modern MBTs arrived in the Popasna area, and the T-62-train in Melitupol was followed by a train loaded with T-80s. Thus, for the time being, I see no point in wasting even more time with guessing about where and how are T-62s going to be deployed.









						Tom Cooper – Medium
					

Read writing from Tom Cooper on Medium. From Austria; specialised in analysis of contemporary warfare; working as author, illustrator, and book-series-editor for Helion & Co.




					medium.com


----------



## MilEME09

Called it


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1531402335183839233


----------



## Maxman1

Skysix said:


> Disregard my last: should have been The War Zone article on western microchips in Russan hi-tech



Russian microchips biggest microchips.


----------



## Maxman1

daftandbarmy said:


> in Ethiopia and Angola (as advisors)



"Advisors"


----------



## The Bread Guy

Wily Turkey ... speaking to Ukraine, Erdogan offers this up (Goog Eng translation from Turkish statement) ...


> ...  During the meeting, President Erdoğan stated that they have made every effort to continue the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, and that they are ready to provide the needed support, including mediation, from now on ...


... while offering this up to Putin & Co.


> ... President Erdoğan expressed that they are ready to meet with Russia, Ukraine and the United Nations in Istanbul and to play a role in a possible observation mechanism, if both sides agree on principle ...


Even mentions this bit in TUR state media English-language coverage of the chat with Putin (nothing in English or Turkish I can find in state media about his chat with Zelensky).  UKR state media mentions both ...


> ... The Turkish side offered to host and play its role in a meeting between Russia, Ukraine and the UN in Istanbul, and a possible monitoring mechanism.


Guess he doesn't think offering (what I read to be, anyway) an observer mission to Ukraine makes much sense given they want USSR 2.0 back behind its own borders?

🍿


----------



## The Bread Guy

From the "sure Belarus wasn't involved" files, via BLR state media ....


----------



## AlexanderM

KevinB said:


> I think it’s more of a ATACMS, PrSM issue than the launcher themselves.
> The M30 and M31 series of rockets are a 60-70km range which I don’t think are a concern here.
> 
> Still a reversal though (and concerning) as last week ATACMS where pretty much a done deal here.


You were right according to this, 60+km range.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1531695846030561280


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1531690610809221120


----------



## KevinB

AlexanderM said:


> You were right according to this, 60+km range.


At least that gets the launch system in theater.
   We can always send ATACMS later depending on how things are going...


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> At least that gets the launch system in theater.
> We can always send ATACMS later depending on how things are going...



Yeah, based on the range limitation ('not able to reach Russia from Ukraine') the war will be going very badly for UKR if they deliver the ATACMS


----------



## Blackadder1916

Restocking the shelves.










						Having shipped artillery shells to Ukraine, Canada asks S Korea for more
					

Canada has asked South Korea to supply it with artillery rounds, Seoul said, apparently to "backfill" supplies that Ottawa has sent to Ukraine




					www.business-standard.com
				



Having shipped artillery shells to Ukraine, Canada asks S Korea for more​Canada has asked South Korea to supply it with artillery rounds, Seoul said, apparently to "backfill" supplies that Ottawa has sent to Ukraine​Canada has asked South Korea to supply it with artillery rounds, Seoul said on Monday, apparently to "backfill" supplies that Ottawa has sent to Ukraine, upping pressure on South Korea to provide - at least indirectly - lethal aid in the war.

Canada has provided Ukraine with M777 towed howitzers, which fire 155-millimetre shells. Last week Defence Minister Anita Anand announced Canada would be sending an additional 20,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition, sourced from the United States.

A spokesman for South Korea's ministry of defence confirmed that Ottawa had made the request, but would not elaborate further saying "no official proceedings are under way related to the request."

South Korean broadcaster SBS, citing an unnamed high-ranking South Korean defence ministry official, said that the deal could involve up to 100,000 shells from South Korea's reserves, likely sold below market value.
"We are actively pursuing a plan to provide 100,000 rounds to Canada," the official told SBS.

Global Affairs Canada, which manages diplomatic and consular relations, and Canada's Department of National Defence did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

South Korea is a major manufacturer of 155mm ammunition, with its K9 self-propelled howitzer dominating the international market. The K9 is used by several European countries, including Finland, Norway and Estonia, but South Korea has said it has no plans to provide lethal aid to Ukraine.

South Korea has provided humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and has shipped non-lethal items including bulletproof helmets and medical kits.
The administration of former President Moon Jae-in turned down requests from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy for armoured vehicles, and anti-aircraft, anti-tank, and anti-ship weapons.

New South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, who took office on May 10, has signalled interest in more closely aligning with Washington, raising speculation he would move to greenlight at least some indirect lethal aid to Ukraine.


----------



## Kirkhill

Assuming this is true and the translation is accurate.  Interesting tale.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1531201550441402368


----------



## The Bread Guy

Well, since cops & border folks are fighting, too, still useful, no?








						Canadian armoured vehicles arrive in Ukraine but they're not fit for front line, experts say
					

The newly developed Senator is designed for law-enforcement and border-patrol use, raising questions about how helpful the vehicles will be for Ukrainian forces




					theprovince.com
				



More on the Senator








						Roshel – Smart Armored Vehicles
					

Roshel is one of the largest manufacturers of smart armored vehicles for commercial and government organizations in North America.




					roshel.ca


----------



## The Bread Guy

Intriguing, even if partly true, via UKR state media ...


> The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine has dismissed Liudmyla Denisova from her post as Commissioner for Human Rights.
> 
> (...)
> 
> According to Pavlo Frolov, Member of Parliament from the Servant of the People faction* and a member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Rules of Procedure, the reasons for Denisova’s dismissal were as follows: the repeated failure to perform her duties related to the establishment of humanitarian corridors, protection and swap of prisoners, counteracting the deportation of adults and children from the occupied territories, other human right activities; focusing the ombudsman’s media activity on the numerous details of ‘unnatural sexual offences’ and child sexual abuses in the occupied territories, which were unsupported by evidence and only harmed Ukraine ...


* - Rada ruling party


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR's Security Service:  It's dog eat dog out there ....








						Due to problems with logistics, russian occupiers eat dogs again
					






					ssu.gov.ua


----------



## daftandbarmy

The Bread Guy said:


> Well, since cops & border folks are fighting, too, still useful, no?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canadian armoured vehicles arrive in Ukraine but they're not fit for front line, experts say
> 
> 
> The newly developed Senator is designed for law-enforcement and border-patrol use, raising questions about how helpful the vehicles will be for Ukrainian forces
> 
> 
> 
> 
> theprovince.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> More on the Senator
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Roshel – Smart Armored Vehicles
> 
> 
> Roshel is one of the largest manufacturers of smart armored vehicles for commercial and government organizations in North America.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> roshel.ca



Some of the video clips coming out of the war show troops jammed into civvie vehicles, running around doing raids, demolishing bridges etc. amidst small arms and artillery fire.

I assume they would be much better 'served and protected' by a vehicle like this.


----------



## MilEME09

Well now


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1531765015413399553


----------



## GK .Dundas

Dundas's Law #37 : Never draw attention to yourself. Somebody could be watching.
And being noticed is not always a good thing.


----------



## MilEME09

GK .Dundas said:


> Dundas's Law #37 : Never draw attention to yourself. Somebody could be watching.
> And being noticed is not always a good thing.


Clearly Russia needs this instructional video


----------



## AlexanderM

AlexanderM said:


> You were right according to this, 60+km range.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1531695846030561280
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1531690610809221120


So it appears there may have been a change, which is good, as Biden should not be backing down from Putin!!


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1531793329612107776

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1531789601651712000


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1531881373262290944


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1531908927608299522


----------



## The Bread Guy

Intriguing if true ...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1531884151497949184


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> Intriguing if true ...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1531884151497949184


Take anything that account says with a bag of salt, he has been proven fake, and just reports stuff he finds on telegram and Twitter.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> Take anything that account says with a bag of salt, he has been proven fake, and just reports stuff he finds on telegram and Twitter.


Thanks for the reminder - can't keep my Canadian Volunteer twitter feeds sorted without a program.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> Take anything that account says with a bag of salt, he has been proven fake, and just reports stuff he finds on telegram and Twitter.


One step up the verification ladder (with a smaller, but still-not-zero grain of salt):  UKR internal affairs official on Telegram ...


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Interesting 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1531833048689418247


----------



## AlexanderM

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1532058077377482753


----------



## suffolkowner

Germany To Give IRIS-T Air Defense System To Ukraine
					

Chancellor Olaf Scholz has officially promised to deliver Germany's highly advanced IRIS-T SLM air defense system to Ukraine.




					www.thedrive.com
				




the germans getting in on the action too


----------



## The Bread Guy

AlexanderM said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1532058077377482753


A bit more detail from the various info-machines








						Fact Sheet on U.S. Security Assistance to Ukraine
					

The United States has committed approximately $5.3 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden Administration, including approximately $4.6 billion since the beginning



					www.defense.gov
				











						$700 Million in Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine
					

The Defense Department announced the authorization of a Presidential Drawdown of security assistance valued at up to $700 million, tailored to meet critical Ukrainian needs for today’s fight.



					www.defense.gov
				











						$700 Million Drawdown of New U.S. Military Assistance for Ukraine - United States Department of State
					

In the three months since it launched its unprovoked and brutal further invasion of Ukraine, Russia has consistently failed to meet its strategic objectives.  The Kremlin has succeeded only in devastating communities, brutalizing civilians, disrupting Ukraine’s agriculture, and threatening...




					www.state.gov
				











						Memorandum on the Delegation of Authority Under Section 506(a)(1) of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 | The White House
					

MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OF STATE SUBJECT:       Delegation of Authority Under Section 506(a)(1) of the Foreign




					www.whitehouse.gov


----------



## AlexanderM

Hasn't happened yet but let's hope!









						EXCLUSIVE U.S. plans to sell armed drones to Ukraine in coming days -sources
					

The Biden administration plans to sell Ukraine four MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones that can be armed with Hellfire missiles for battlefield use against Russia, three people familiar with the situation said.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Skysix

suffolkowner said:


> Germany To Give IRIS-T Air Defense System To Ukraine
> 
> 
> Chancellor Olaf Scholz has officially promised to deliver Germany's highly advanced IRIS-T SLM air defense system to Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedrive.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> the germans getting in on the action too


Will believe it when they cross the Polish border. He hasn't got a track record of doing much more than talking. Mostly appeasement.


----------



## suffolkowner

AlexanderM said:


> Hasn't happened yet but let's hope!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> EXCLUSIVE U.S. plans to sell armed drones to Ukraine in coming days -sources
> 
> 
> The Biden administration plans to sell Ukraine four MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones that can be armed with Hellfire missiles for battlefield use against Russia, three people familiar with the situation said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


Maybe they're following this idea






						Lend Lease for the mid-term: on readying tanks, fighters, drones, and anti-ship missiles for Ukraine.
					

Last night, the US House of Representatives approved $13.6 billion in military spending for Ukraine. This is glorious, and in the short-term, the Ukrainians are getting the portable anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles they need, and from many countries. However, in the mid-term run—because this...



					www.jameshasik.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

Because it's important to set the Arctic Circle ablaze with indignation...

Schools in Murmansk, in Arctic Russia, told to teach anti-Ukraine propaganda​
*Teachers are requested to enlighten school kids about Ukraine’s “genocide against Russians” and its “historical adherence” to Russia.*

The Ministry of Education in Murmansk on the 28th of February announced that history classes in regional schools should include updated teaching about Ukraine.

According to a letter signed signed by acting Minister Svetlana Videneeva, the new methodical materials are recommended to be applied in history classes for kids in 6-11th grades. The materials should be taken use of from 1st of March. Also online classes are provided, Videneeva informs.

Among the new teaching materials is a brochure titled “Russia and Ukraine — two parts of a united historical, spiritual and cultural space.”

The brochure that appears to have been produced ahead of Russia’s invasion looks as far back as to the christening of so-called Rus’ in year 988 and argues that Putin’s recognition of eastern Ukrainian rebel republics and the war is legitimate.

It gives major attention to Ukraine’s so-called “anti-Russian path.” It argues that the country is russophobic, Nazi-friendly and controlled by outside Western forces.









						Schools in Murmansk, in Arctic Russia, told to teach anti-Ukraine propaganda
					

Teachers are requested to enlighten school kids about Ukraine's "genocide against Russians" and its "historical adherence" to Russia.  The Ministry of Education in Murmansk on the 28th of February announced that history classes in regional schools should include updated teaching about Ukraine.



					www.rcinet.ca


----------



## AlexanderM

Skysix said:


> Will believe it when they cross the Polish border. He hasn't got a track record of doing much more than talking. Mostly appeasement.


Sometimes it's good to be skeptical.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1532048338127933442


----------



## Czech_pivo

Skysix said:


> Will believe it when they cross the Polish border. He hasn't got a track record of doing much more than talking. Mostly appeasement.


That's what happens when you take away all the Prussians out of Germany, you're left with a bunch of Austrians.....


----------



## KevinB

AlexanderM said:


> Hasn't happened yet but let's hope!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> EXCLUSIVE U.S. plans to sell armed drones to Ukraine in coming days -sources
> 
> 
> The Biden administration plans to sell Ukraine four MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones that can be armed with Hellfire missiles for battlefield use against Russia, three people familiar with the situation said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


“Ukrainian” pilots


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Czech_pivo said:


> That's what happens when you take away all the Prussians out of Germany, you're left with a bunch of Austrians.....


Wasn't it Stalin that...well...de-Prussianized Prussia after the war?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> “Ukrainian” pilots


Ukranian Foreign Legion - Det Fort Meade


----------



## Skysix

rmc_wannabe said:


> Ukranian Foreign Legion - Det Fort Meade


There are probably a bunch of dual citizen pilots/drone pilots in NATO who could be quickly "reflagged"


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1532238230137057281


----------



## daftandbarmy

More oil on the water than ever before, heading to China and India. Realpolitik is a thing:


These charts show how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed global oil flows​

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has altered the global oil trade.
EU leaders agreed to ban the majority of Russian crude imports, but even prior to the official action imports to Northwest Europe were down.
More Russian oil is now heading to nations including India and China.


The amount of Russian crude oil that’s “on the water” surged to nearly 80 million barrels this month, the firm noted, up from less than 30 million barrels prior to the Ukraine invasion.

These charts show how Russia's invasion of Ukraine has changed global oil flows


----------



## CBH99

daftandbarmy said:


> More oil on the water than ever before, heading to China and India. Realpolitik is a thing:
> 
> 
> These charts show how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed global oil flows​
> 
> Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has altered the global oil trade.
> EU leaders agreed to ban the majority of Russian crude imports, but even prior to the official action imports to Northwest Europe were down.
> More Russian oil is now heading to nations including India and China.
> 
> 
> The amount of Russian crude oil that’s “on the water” surged to nearly 80 million barrels this month, the firm noted, up from less than 30 million barrels prior to the Ukraine invasion.
> 
> These charts show how Russia's invasion of Ukraine has changed global oil flows











						U.S. Plans To Sell Ukraine Armed MQ-1C Gray Eagle Drones: Report
					

MQ-1C gives Ukraine a major leap in capability over its TB-2 drones for missions like electronic warfare support, strike, and surveillance.




					www.thedrive.com
				





Whether someone is a fan of the US or not, they really have stood behind & supported Ukraine as much as they can without actually committing their own combat forces.  Javelin missiles, M777, plus the inflow of tanks, artillery, AD systems, etc from different countries - the Ukrainian Armed Forces are doing pretty darn well for a non-NATO country.  

(Since they are taking up the fight on behalf of the rest of us, they deserve every piece of kit we can spare, in my opinion.)


----------



## Colin Parkinson

daftandbarmy said:


> More oil on the water than ever before, heading to China and India. Realpolitik is a thing:
> 
> 
> These charts show how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed global oil flows​
> 
> Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has altered the global oil trade.
> EU leaders agreed to ban the majority of Russian crude imports, but even prior to the official action imports to Northwest Europe were down.
> More Russian oil is now heading to nations including India and China.
> 
> 
> The amount of Russian crude oil that’s “on the water” surged to nearly 80 million barrels this month, the firm noted, up from less than 30 million barrels prior to the Ukraine invasion.
> 
> These charts show how Russia's invasion of Ukraine has changed global oil flows


But as I recall the price is considerably less, so the net effect is not as big as it appears.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Intriguing if true - this from a Belarusian human rights NGO








						General Arrested In Russia For Failing Offensive On Mykolayiv
					

He commanded the most combat-ready 58th Army of Russia's Southern Military District.




					charter97.org


----------



## The Bread Guy

Well done drone makers (and TUR for a change)








						Turkey gifts Bayraktar drone to Lithuania to hand it over to Ukraine
					

Turkey has gifted a Bayraktar combat drone to Lithuania to be handed over to Ukraine, journalist and public figure Andri...




					www.lrt.lt


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

daftandbarmy said:


> More oil on the water than ever before, heading to China and India. Realpolitik is a thing:
> 
> 
> These charts show how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed global oil flows​
> 
> Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has altered the global oil trade.
> EU leaders agreed to ban the majority of Russian crude imports, but even prior to the official action imports to Northwest Europe were down.
> More Russian oil is now heading to nations including India and China.
> 
> 
> The amount of Russian crude oil that’s “on the water” surged to nearly 80 million barrels this month, the firm noted, up from less than 30 million barrels prior to the Ukraine invasion.
> 
> These charts show how Russia's invasion of Ukraine has changed global oil flows


Russia State coffers are overflowing at the moment and the Oligarchs are making more money than ever.

They are predicting an almost $300 billion budget surplus this year which is going to make up entirely, the seizure of Russian Reserves held in the West.

The craziest part is third party Countries are now also making money off Western sanctions.  For instance, India is buying Russian Oil and then reselling it to European Countries at a marked up price.

Unrelated to this, I was reading on Telegram channels that apparently Uralvagonzavod (Russian Armoured Vehicle/Tank Manufacturer) is hiring 3000+ workers. 

Also, big merger between Sukhoi + Mig:  Su-35 & MiG-29 Are Now One! Russia Merges Sukhoi and MiG Into One Company Under UAC

Did I mention before that I don't agree with our strategy we are using to combat Russia.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Russia State coffers are overflowing at the moment and the Oligarchs are making more money than ever.
> 
> They are predicting an almost $300 billion budget surplus this year which is going to make up entirely, the seizure of Russian Reserves held in the West.
> 
> The craziest part is third party Countries are now also making money off Western sanctions.  For instance, India is buying Russian Oil and then reselling it to European Countries at a marked up price.
> 
> Unrelated to this, I was reading on Telegram channels that apparently Uralvagonzavod (Russian Armoured Vehicle/Tank Manufacturer) is hiring 3000+ workers.
> 
> Also, big merger between Sukhoi + Mig:  Su-35 & MiG-29 Are Now One! Russia Merges Sukhoi and MiG Into One Company Under UAC
> 
> Did I mention before that I don't agree with our strategy we are using to combat Russia.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

daftandbarmy said:


>


Vlad be like:


----------



## MilEME09

Thr problem is we have been sanctioning only Russian imports, while very little of their exports have been targeted. If we hit them with massive tarrifs, and export sanctions, make it harder for their ships to be insured, etc...we might start hurting them


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> Thr problem is we have been sanctioning only Russian imports, while very little of their exports have been targeted. If we hit them with massive tarrifs, and export sanctions, make it harder for their ships to be insured, etc...we might start hurting them



Problem with your thesis:






The Russians are using globalization against us 😉.  The answer to the Russian question isn't Sanctions, it's another S word....  I'll give you a hint:

It starts with S and end with elf-Sufficiency.  

All of the Green Countries (Sanctioning States) are reliant on all the Grey Countries (Whom Russia is Allied/Aligned with) for their commodities and substantial amounts of their manufacturing.  

Russia is cleverly using outsourcing against us.


----------



## Kirkhill

Another Reddit Roundup

Cannae


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/v3crtt

Section assault


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/v3aoja

Pro-Ukrainian tunes at the Kremlin


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/v30m2b

1000 km front line









						Zelensky: Front line in Ukraine exceeds 1,000km. Russia has thrown all combat-ready troops
					

The fighting in Ukraine continues on more than 1,000km of the front, and Russia has thrown all its combat-ready military formations into the war against the Ukrainians. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				




A bit more of the Russian Navy in the Black Sea written down









						Ukraine forces destroy two Russian landing boats in the Dnipro-Buh estuary
					

On June 1, two Russian high-speed landing craft were destroyed in the Dnipro-Buh estuary in the south of Ukraine. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				




Hellfire to Ukraine (along with the previous Brimstone)


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/v3dk7b


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/v3c423

GMRLS to Ukraine


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/v2sbtw
r/ukraine - UK to give Ukraine 80km-range MLR systems - defense secretary








						US will send HIMARS precision rockets to Ukraine
					

The Biden administration announced Wednesday it will send Ukraine a $700 million in new military aid that includes high-tech, medium-range rocket systems, a critical weapon that Ukrainian leaders have been pleading for as they struggle to stall Russian progress in the Donbas region.




					www.defensenews.com
				











						r/ukraine - HIMARS were pre-positioned in Europe in anticipation of delivery to Ukraine, says Colin Kahl, US Department of Defense undersecretary.
					

1,001 votes and 118 comments so far on Reddit




					www.reddit.com
				



Firing the US Army's Incredible HIMARS Rocket Launcher


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Problem with your thesis:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Russians are using globalization against us 😉.  The answer to the Russian question isn't Sanctions, it's another S word....  I'll give you a hint:
> 
> It starts with S and end with elf-Sufficiency.
> 
> All of the Green Countries (Sanctioning States) are reliant on all the Grey Countries (Whom Russia is Allied/Aligned with) for their commodities and substantial amounts of their manufacturing.
> 
> Russia is cleverly using outsourcing against us.


The grey are unalligned at best to Russia.   There is a lot more green leaning out there.  

But yes, the way that sanction are being employed is woeful.   

I’m of the opinion we should naval blockade Russia as long as they are conducting this ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine.  Anything attempted to leave will be seized regardless of flag of vessel. I figured unrestricted submarine warfare was out… 

Yes brinkmanship is my middle name


----------



## Kirkhill

Norwegians in the field with M109A3s


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/v2jcro


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Excellent neutral breakdown from the Austrian Army on the current situation in the Donbass.  Covers some of the tactics employed by both sides.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> The grey are unalligned at best to Russia.   There is a lot more green leaning out there.
> 
> But yes, the way that sanction are being employed is woeful.
> 
> I’m of the opinion we should naval blockade Russia as long as they are conducting this ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine.  Anything attempted to leave will be seized regardless of flag of vessel. I figured unrestricted submarine warfare was out…
> 
> Yes brinkmanship is my middle name


A question that no one is asking is this: 'What will happen to Russia's marine fleet and oil/gas industry when they need maintenance/repair/renewal/investment to begin occurring in these 2 areas.'  How much of this can effectively occur without access to all of the 'green' areas on that map.  Sure, some of that can be sourced from China and some other areas, but, much like the previously used examples of Chinese sourced tires, the quality of a number of these items may in fact be questionable.

A number of  Russian tankers are used primarily in the Black/Med Seas, calm waters and short distances from ports.  With them now having to traverse the Suez and cross the western Indian Ocean into India and then through the Straits of Malacca and on to China, the 'wear and tear' on them will be significantly higher than previously. This in turn will mean much greater time spent 'in the docks' over the next few months.  It will be interesting to look at the volume of oil shipped via water in the July-Sept timeframe.  I suspect them to collapse then.

Also, maybe some well-timed information slipped to some enterprising Somalia pirates re positioning of Russian tankers might make an interesting story, coupled with NATO anti-pirating efforts being moved a bit further south.....


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Excellent neutral breakdown from the Austrian Army on the current situation in the Donbass.  Covers some of the tactics employed by both sides.


I think this guy has just updated his Great-Grandfather's tactical maps to power-point presentations and is just re-hashing them and none of us know the difference.....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> I think this guy has just updated his Great-Grandfather's tactical maps to power-point presentations and is just re-hashing them and none of us know the difference.....


Battle of Kursk 2.0?


----------



## Maxman1

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Vlad be like:



Meanwhile, Justin Trudeau...


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1532370419101089793
LOL


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1532370419101089793
> LOL


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Czech_pivo said:


> A question that no one is asking is this: 'What will happen to Russia's marine fleet and oil/gas industry when they need maintenance/repair/renewal/investment to begin occurring in these 2 areas.'  How much of this can effectively occur without access to all of the 'green' areas on that map.  Sure, some of that can be sourced from China and some other areas, but, much like the previously used examples of Chinese sourced tires, the quality of a number of these items may in fact be questionable.
> 
> A number of  Russian tankers are used primarily in the Black/Med Seas, calm waters and short distances from ports.  With them now having to traverse the Suez and cross the western Indian Ocean into India and then through the Straits of Malacca and on to China, the 'wear and tear' on them will be significantly higher than previously. This in turn will mean much greater time spent 'in the docks' over the next few months.  It will be interesting to look at the volume of oil shipped via water in the July-Sept timeframe.  I suspect them to collapse then.
> 
> Also, maybe some well-timed information slipped to some enterprising Somalia pirates re positioning of Russian tankers might make an interesting story, coupled with NATO anti-pirating efforts being moved a bit further south.....


I wish to subscribe to your magazine....


----------



## The Bread Guy

ISW's key take-aways for the day ...


> Russian operations to advance on Slovyansk from the southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman continue to make little progress and are unlikely to do so in the coming days, as Russian forces continue to prioritize Severodonetsk at the expense of other axes of advance.
> Russian forces continued assaults against Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in order to claim full control of Luhansk Oblast.
> Russian forces made incremental advances around Avdiivka.
> Ukrainian counteroffensives in northwestern Kherson Oblast pushed Russian forces to the eastern bank of the Inhulets River and will likely continue to disrupt Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) along the T2207 highway.
> The Kremlin continued to pursue inconsistent occupational measures in southern Ukraine, indicating both widespread Ukrainian resistance and likely Kremlin indecision on how to integrate occupied territory.


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> ISW's key take-aways for the day ...


Ukrainian TDF is reporting late today they have taken another 8km in Kherson, waiting for the next General staff update for details but I am willing to bet the T2207 highway is now cut by Ukrainian forces.


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1532600250841669632


----------



## The Bread Guy

Animated map via UK's mil int info-machine ....

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1532664644556423168


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> Published footage of the repair of Russian military equipment damaged in the battles in Ukraine and the restoration of captured equipment in Ukraine. For the speedy return of military equipment to service, specialists use the method of modular repair by replacing faulty units with serviceable ones from the repair fund, or removed from Ukrainian captured equipment, the maximum repair period is three days.



Hey, @Soldier35, found this on the Darkweb too.

More videos of RUAF and DPR and LPR doing test firing after conducting repairs on their remaining tanks that UKR hasn’t yet destroyed.  Great job keeping them working! 👍🏼


----------



## MilEME09

Ballsy doesn't quite describe this


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1532752723141066753


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1532610309340467201


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1532755782068224000


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Soldier35 said:


> Ukrainian refugees in Bulgaria showed where they began to be transported from hotels on the sea coast. The Bulgarian authorities have begun to release hotels from refugees due to the start of the holiday season.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Published footage of the repair of Russian military equipment damaged in the battles in Ukraine and the restoration of captured equipment in Ukraine. For the speedy return of military equipment to service, specialists use the method of modular repair by replacing faulty units with serviceable ones from the repair fund, or removed from Ukrainian captured equipment, the maximum repair period is three days.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ads for the sale of Javelin anti-tank missile systems supplied by the United States to the Ukrainian military appeared on the darknet. It is noted that Ukrainians selling American weapons estimated the ATGM at 30 thousand dollars. It is emphasized that the location where Javelin is located is the capital of Ukraine. Photos published online suggest that the weapon is most likely not new.
> 
> View attachment 71163


Since Russian Generals can't fund their mistresses with stolen military funds anymore, they are selling captured equipment to maintain their lady friends. Interesting


----------



## Spencer100

Colin Parkinson said:


> Since Russian Generals can't fund their mistresses with stolen military funds anymore, they are selling captured equipment to maintain their lady friends. Interesting


After the fall of the USSR....they really didn't learn Capitalism right did they?

You can't use others capital unwillingly!  (but that is the whole and single largest problem in the world right now)


----------



## MilEME09

Ukrainian technicals


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1532816735996346370


----------



## GR66

MilEME09 said:


> Ukrainian technicals
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1532816735996346370


Don't let Kirkhill see this!


----------



## dapaterson

Counter battery.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1532695309943463939


----------



## MilEME09

GR66 said:


> Don't let Kirkhill see this!


And yet they still won't let me mount a C16 to a MILCOT......


----------



## suffolkowner

Soldier35 said:


> Ukrainian refugees in Bulgaria showed where they began to be transported from hotels on the sea coast. The Bulgarian authorities have begun to release hotels from refugees due to the start of the holiday season.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Published footage of the repair of Russian military equipment damaged in the battles in Ukraine and the restoration of captured equipment in Ukraine. For the speedy return of military equipment to service, specialists use the method of modular repair by replacing faulty units with serviceable ones from the repair fund, or removed from Ukrainian captured equipment, the maximum repair period is three days.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ads for the sale of Javelin anti-tank missile systems supplied by the United States to the Ukrainian military appeared on the darknet. It is noted that Ukrainians selling American weapons estimated the ATGM at 30 thousand dollars. It is emphasized that the location where Javelin is located is the capital of Ukraine. Photos published online suggest that the weapon is most likely not new.
> 
> View attachment 71163


seems like a good deal can we get some for the CAF


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1532765872531689473


----------



## GK .Dundas

suffolkowner said:


> seems like a good deal can we get some for the CAF


Yeah it does. So soldier 35 which one of your bosses do we talk to and do the deposits for them go to the Caymans or Switzerland  ?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Switzerland:  go ahead and send those Leopard 2's, Germany ...








						Swiss say Germany can freely dispose of Leopard 2 tanks sold back to Rheinmetall
					

Switzerland's defence procurement office said on Friday it had given the go-ahead for Germany to freely dispose of Leopard 2 tanks previously sold back to defence group Rheinmetall.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Spencer100

The Bread Guy said:


> Switzerland:  go ahead and send those Leopard 2's, Germany ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Swiss say Germany can freely dispose of Leopard 2 tanks sold back to Rheinmetall
> 
> 
> Switzerland's defence procurement office said on Friday it had given the go-ahead for Germany to freely dispose of Leopard 2 tanks previously sold back to defence group Rheinmetall.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


I thought they were Leo 1's and Gepards.


----------



## Skysix

MilEME09 said:


> And yet they still won't let me mount a C16 to a MILCOT......


Been out for a while. C6 or C16? (If C16, what is)


----------



## OldSolduer

MilEME09 said:


> And yet they still won't let me mount a C16 to a MILCOT......


We're peacekeepers, remember? Blue berets and everyone loves us......


----------



## MilEME09

Skysix said:


> Been out for a while. C6 or C16? (If C16, what is)


C16 is the H&K Grenade machine gun, basically fancy German Mk19


----------



## Skysix

MilEME09 said:


> C16 is the H&K Grenade machine gun, basically fancy German Mk19


Seems like a valid addition for traffic on the 401🤓


----------



## The Bread Guy

This may sound familiar to folks who know a bit about "The Troubles" in/around Northern Ireland - from UK Sky News ...


> ... Nazar is 10 years old.
> 
> Nazar confided in us that passing cars are stopped and drivers are asked to say two Ukrainian words - words that are difficult to say in Russian - to determine if they can pass.
> 
> The words are 'Ukrazaliznitsa' and 'Palianitsa'. One is a Ukrainian railway company, the other a type of Ukrainian bread.
> 
> As we chatted a car trundled down the hill to their checkpoint. With the confidence of a gunslinger, Nazar flagged it down and trotted out his rehearsed, cunning, word question.
> 
> In truth, the Ukrainian soldiers do exactly the same thing.
> 
> In a respectfully obedient way, the driver repeats the two words, Nazar moves him on.
> 
> 'It worked!' I cried. "Of course," Nazar replied.
> 
> I asked him if they'd ever caught a Russian.
> 
> "Yes," he said, deadly serious. "A driver failed the test, but we let him pass," he quickly added.
> 
> "Next time we won't be so lenient." ...


----------



## tomydoom

The Bread Guy said:


> This may sound familiar to folks who know a bit about "The Troubles" in/around Northern Ireland - from UK Sky News ...


In a similar vein, the story in my family is that during WWII the Dutch would ask people to pronounce “Scheveningen” as apparently Germans found it impossible to pronounce correctly.


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1532979813048360961


----------



## MilEME09

tomydoom said:


> In a similar vein, the story in my family is that during WWII the Dutch would ask people to pronounce “Scheveningen” as apparently Germans found it impossible to pronounce correctly.


Sounds like how out west we can tell who is a local by how you pronounce calgary


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> Sounds like how out west we can tell who is a local by how you pronounce calgary



Or Vang-couver 

When you live in Vang-couver but hail from O-soo-yuss: On a hunt for regional accents​









						When you live in Vang-couver but hail from O-soo-yuss: On a hunt for regional accents
					

English-Canadian accents are famously homogeneous from sea to sea, Newfoundland and Labrador notwithstanding.




					vancouversun.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

The Bread Guy said:


> This may sound familiar to folks who know a bit about "The Troubles" in/around Northern Ireland - from UK Sky News ...



I had my rifle in the shoulder, and first trigger pressure, aiming at a kid in a Belfast housing estate once.

He was carrying one of those Mattel M-16s, and looked exactly like a gunman at about 200m.

We suggested to the parents that this was bad for the kids' health, but of course they just Effed us off.


----------



## RangerRay

daftandbarmy said:


> Or Vang-couver
> 
> When you live in Vang-couver but hail from O-soo-yuss: On a hunt for regional accents​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> When you live in Vang-couver but hail from O-soo-yuss: On a hunt for regional accents
> 
> 
> English-Canadian accents are famously homogeneous from sea to sea, Newfoundland and Labrador notwithstanding.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> vancouversun.com


Actually, I found Vancouverites pronounce it “Van-KEW-ver”.


----------



## daftandbarmy

RangerRay said:


> Actually, I found Vancouverites pronounce it “Van-KEW-ver”.



They're probably refugee transplants from Eastern Canada. We 'natives' all definitely 'Vang' it up


----------



## RangerRay

daftandbarmy said:


> They're probably refugee transplants from Eastern Canada. We 'natives' all definitely 'Vang' it up


Oh no. These are all born Vancouverites. 

Even more interesting is who still uses Chinook words like “skookum” in daily speech. Usually tends to be those of us who had families for at least a couple generations in the Interior, but I am open to be wrong on that.


----------



## daftandbarmy

RangerRay said:


> Oh no. These are all born Vancouverites.
> 
> Even more interesting is who still uses Chinook words like “skookum” in daily speech. Usually tends to be those of us who had families for at least a couple generations in the Interior, but I am open to be wrong on that.


 
And Salt Chuck!


----------



## The Bread Guy

daftandbarmy said:


> I had my rifle in the shoulder, and first trigger pressure, aiming at a kid in a Belfast housing estate once.
> 
> He was carrying one of those Mattel M-16s, and looked exactly like a gunman at about 200m.
> 
> We suggested to the parents that this was bad for the kids' health, but of course they just Effed us off.


I was thinking more of the "how you say certain s**t can make you a target," but there's that, too.


----------



## Skysix

daftandbarmy said:


> Or Vang-couver
> 
> When you live in Vang-couver but hail from O-soo-yuss: On a hunt for regional accents​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> When you live in Vang-couver but hail from O-soo-yuss: On a hunt for regional accents
> 
> 
> English-Canadian accents are famously homogeneous from sea to sea, Newfoundland and Labrador notwithstanding.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> vancouversun.com


Or Lougheed


----------



## tomydoom

The Bread Guy said:


> I was thinking more of the "how you say certain s**t can make you a target," but there's that, too.


I certainly feel conspicuous in certain areas of Belfast with republic number plates on my car. I am very quick to deploy my Canadian accent in Northem Ireland.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

I just ask folks how many Ts get pronounced in Toronto. If the answer is more than, they'e suspect.


----------



## Good2Golf

rmc_wannabe said:


> I just ask folks how many Ts get pronounced in Toronto. If the answer is more than, they'e suspect.


Tronna.


----------



## daftandbarmy

This cheered me up... German off route mines being used by UKR:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1530577763110895616

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1532456092525117441


----------



## MilEME09

Ukraine gaining back ground in key battle for Serverodonetsk.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1533223355263901697
Two sources also say UA has full control of the city tonight


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1533217840513355778


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1533230259973259264


----------



## Skysix

An opposing point of view from a normally conservative pro military site. Not well enough informed to challenge the data he draws his conclusions from, but they just don't "feel" accurate.









						Contemplating the Unthinkable in Ukraine: Trading Land for Peace
					

There are three fundamental reasons why there is little prospect for Ukraine to defeat Russia in a reasonable timeframe at an affordable cost.




					www.19fortyfive.com


----------



## RangerRay

I did a double take to make sure this was written in The Guardian. 









						Enemy tongue: eastern Ukrainians reject their Russian birth language
					

In towns near Russia’s border, Moscow’s influence was strong and Ukrainian was rarely spoken. The war has changed that




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Pre-cast concrete (or lack thereof) as a battle/sustainability indicator?  Intriguing thread on Twitter ....

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1512795379334631440


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1533319150172524559


----------



## MilEME09

Another general bites the dust, this time killed in the battle for Donbas, I think this makes the 12th?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1533479944118059010


----------



## Retired AF Guy

daftandbarmy said:


> This cheered me up... German off route mines being used by UKR:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1530577763110895616


Amazingly at least three occupants of the BMP survived the explosion! You can see them in the zoom shot.


----------



## McG

MilEME09 said:


> Another general bites the dust, this time killed in the battle for Donbas, I think this makes the 12th?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1533479944118059010


I suspect there will be a brief surge of similar incidents the first day or two that HIMARS become operational in Ukraine.


----------



## MilEME09

McG said:


> I suspect there will be a brief surge of similar incidents the first day or two that HIMARS become operational in Ukraine.


Sad thing is only 4 were sold to Ukraine, so their use will be to limited areas


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukrainian ammotech appreciating the "beauty" of his Italian, Czech and Polish made 120mm mortar rounds.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1533268361852899329


----------



## The Bread Guy

Those who know, know ...








						I prosecuted Nazis at Nuremberg. Here's how to go after Putin and his thugs.
					

Russia's attack on Ukraine is the most egregious case of crime of aggression in decades. We can build a solid case against Putin and other officials.




					news.yahoo.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Soldier35 said:


> The US attack on Iraq and other countries as you can call it..it's funny to read this..substitution of concepts


How do you say "whataboutism" in Russian?


----------



## MilEME09

Russian trolls seem much more active lately, the sad thing is I have seen on social media self proclaimed CAF members sharing Russian views, whichh strikes me as a security risk if they are.


----------



## KevinB

Soldier35 said:


> The US attack on Iraq and other countries as you can call it..it's funny to read this..substitution of concepts


I may have missed a UN directive for Ukraine to show is disarmament to the International  arms inspectors and it’s open defiance of said resolution…

I’ll wait while you find it


----------



## Blackadder1916

The Bread Guy said:


> How do you say "whataboutism" in Russian?



Горшок. Чайник. Черный.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1533544503864283136


----------



## brihard

Soldier35 said:


> Russian troops hit Kiev. A large-scale missile strike was carried out by six X-101 missiles fired by Russian strategic bombers. On the outskirts of Kiev, T-72 tanks supplied by Eastern European countries and other armored vehicles located in the buildings of the Darnitsky wagon repair company were destroyed.



So a “large scale missile strike” for you guys is down to a half dozen missiles that may have hit some already broken tanks? Pretty sad, dude.

Keep pumping that propaganda though. If you do it well enough you might be one of the last to be put in an old T-62 and sent to fight in Donbas.


----------



## The Bread Guy

How do you say, "this is me, painting a target on myself?" in Ukrainian and Russian?

I'd be using the remote car starter for a while if I was this guy ....


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> How do you say, "this is me, painting a target on myself?" in Ukrainian and Russian?
> View attachment 71214
> I'd be using the remote car starter for a while if I was this guy ....


Go for the cigarette lighter like at the end of "sum of all fears"


----------



## Good2Golf

The Bread Guy said:


> How do you say, "this is me, painting a target on myself?" in Ukrainian and Russian?
> View attachment 71214
> I'd be using the remote car starter for a while if I was this guy ....


…or be careful having a shower so he doesn’t slip on any bullets…


----------



## Skysix

Hypothetically speaking, a Claymore inside the back seat angled to direct the blast at the front seats upper body areas and the backblast down towards gastank. Slack tripwire through the floor to pinion gear shaft aft of the ujoint. After 'x' rotations, boom. Backblast ruptures and ignites gastank as well. Allegedly.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

I hope he gets captured and has to face his countrymen instead.

Death is too honourable a fate for a traitor.


----------



## MilEME09

rmc_wannabe said:


> I hope he gets captured and has to face his countrymen instead.
> 
> Death is too honourable a fate for a traitor.


Given the steady progress on that front, it's possible. Kherson won't be liberated quickly, unless a full collapse of Russian lines, but they are making good progress.


----------



## MilEME09

Today in Technicals weekly


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1533620667236634627


----------



## MilEME09

Ballsy leadership 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1533619320093388800


----------



## rmc_wannabe

MilEME09 said:


> Ballsy leadership
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1533619320093388800


Leaders should be seen at the front. He has stepped up far beyond what most Western leaders would do in a similar situation.


----------



## Rd651

rmc_wannabe said:


> I hope he gets captured and has to face his countrymen instead.
> 
> Death is too honourable a fate for a traitor.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Bloody good show!

UK to send long-range rocket artillery to Ukraine despite Russian threats​M270 launch systems have 50-mile range and can target Russian artillery that has been attacking cities in eastern Ukraine

Britain is to supply long-range rocket artillery to Ukraine, despite a threat on Sunday from Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, to bomb fresh targets if similar weapons from the US were delivered to Kyiv.

The UK will send a handful of tracked M270 multiple launch rocket systems, which can hit targets up to 50 miles away, in the hope they can disrupt the concentrated Russian artillery that has been pounding cities in eastern Ukraine.

Ben Wallace, the UK defence secretary, argued the decision to ship the rocket launchers was justified because “as Russia’s tactics change, so must our support to Ukraine”. The move risks further provoking an already irritated Kremlin.









						UK to send long-range rocket artillery to Ukraine despite Russian threats
					

M270 launch systems have 50-mile range and can target Russian artillery that has been attacking cities in eastern Ukraine




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> Another general bites the dust, this time killed in the battle for Donbas, I think this makes the 12th?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1533479944118059010



He might have been better off in Church on Sunday.  Him and his mate.









						Ukraine 'kills TWO of Putin's generals in one strike' as huge toll reached
					

UKRAINE has reportedly wiped out TWO of Vladimir Putin’s generals in a single strike – bringing the death toll of top-rank Russian commanders to 12. Lieutenant General Roman Berdnikov, …




					www.thesun.co.uk


----------



## Kirkhill

Loaders station in a 2s1 Gvozdika

Bullet, Case, Noise, Open Chains, Hot Brass, Fumes. Repeat.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/v5rbhk


----------



## Spencer100

Kirkhill said:


> He might have been better off in Church on Sunday.  Him and his mate.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine 'kills TWO of Putin's generals in one strike' as huge toll reached
> 
> 
> UKRAINE has reportedly wiped out TWO of Vladimir Putin’s generals in a single strike – bringing the death toll of top-rank Russian commanders to 12. Lieutenant General Roman Berdnikov, …
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thesun.co.uk


Plus the 49 Colonels.   Career advancement in the Russian army is moving at lightening speed.  Hmmm could there be people not really wanting that promotion?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> Loaders station in a 2s1 Gvozdika
> 
> Bullet, Case, Noise, Open Chains, Hot Brass, Fumes. Repeat.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/v5rbhk



What would that look like as a FORCE Test activity, I wonder, especially if it lasted all day


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> What would that look like as a FORCE Test activity, I wonder, especially if it lasted all day



Fortunately for him I'm thinking he only has to manage a "sprint" of 3 or 4 minutes before the gun has to get out of Dodge.  Do they police the brass before they high-tail it?


----------



## MilEME09

Jesus and I thought we had fitness problems, Russian officer


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1533889300630216704


----------



## GK .Dundas

MilEME09 said:


> Jesus and I thought we had fitness problems, Russian officer
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1533889300630216704


Jeebus ! He makes me feel positively trim .


----------



## RaceAddict

MilEME09 said:


> Jesus and I thought we had fitness problems, Russian officer
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1533889300630216704



Did anyone else get a "potentially sensitive content" warning from Twitter on that image?  😂


----------



## MilEME09

RaceAddict said:


> Did anyone else get a "potentially sensitive content" warning from Twitter on that image?  😂


Yes haha,

In other news, yes you can feel a video 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1533899290707623936


----------



## rmc_wannabe

MilEME09 said:


> Jesus and I thought we had fitness problems, Russian officer
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1533889300630216704


I didn't know the Penguin was a Field Grade....


----------



## CBH99

MilEME09 said:


> Ballsy leadership
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1533619320093388800


 I have nothing but respect for this guy.

Well we have a Prime Minister who literally runs and disappears because of trucker protests (Brought on by himself due to him Forgetting that this is supposed to be a free country, and running his mouth does actually have consequences) -  The president of Ukraine stayed and fought side-by-side with his people.

When the world asked him what he needed, His response of "More Ammo"  Will undoubtedly go down in the history books.  

He certainly not afraid to get his hands dirty, And he doesn't shine away from a fight.  I really do like the guy,  And you can tell by the way his neighbors have come to his aid that He does not do them wrong.

( Is biopologies for the weird My apologies for the weird Is capitalization in this post. Using voice to text)


----------



## The Bread Guy

"Peacekeepers" from former USSR countries?  Yeah, that'll fly with UKR as well as western peacekeepers would fly with RUS - this from RUS state media ....


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> "Peacekeepers" from former USSR countries?  Yeah, that'll fly with UKR as well as western peacekeepers would fly with RUS - this from RUS state media ....
> View attachment 71229


Vodka and lots of it.  That is the only explanation


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> Ukraine Cautious as Turkey, Russia Push Black Sea Grain Deal
> 
> Turkey and Russia have reached a tentative deal to restart shipments of Ukraine’s agricultural products from a key Black Sea port, but Kyiv remains skeptical of the proposed pact, according to people familiar with the discussions.
> 
> Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government has offered military help to clear mines off the coast of Odesa and escort grain ships but Ukraine has yet to endorse the plan, worried that removing defenses could leave the vital port open to Russian attack, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss matters that aren’t yet public. Turkey hopes that a United Nations endorsement of the proposal could allay security concerns, the people said.
> 
> Ukraine itself does not allow grain to be exported. Now it is known that the Ukrainian media lied that Russia does not allow grain to be exported from Ports.


@Soldier35  No doubt Russia will apply a “wheat tax” to Ukrainian shipments to feed the VKS!!! 😮


----------



## McG

The Bread Guy said:


> "Peacekeepers" from former USSR countries?  Yeah, that'll fly with UKR as well as western peacekeepers would fly with RUS - this from RUS state media ....
> View attachment 71229


When you launch an unprovoked nationalist invasion of another country, your proposal to label your occupation force as “peacekeepers” is kind of transparent.


----------



## MilEME09

McG said:


> When you launch an unprovoked nationalist invasion of another country, your proposal to label your occupation force as “peacekeepers” is kind of transparent.


Be more likely that NATO has a more permanent presence in eastern Ukraine after this is over.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Skysix said:


> Hypothetically speaking, a Claymore inside the back seat angled to direct the blast at the front seats upper body areas and the backblast down towards gastank. Slack tripwire through the floor to pinion gear shaft aft of the ujoint. After 'x' rotations, boom. Backblast ruptures and ignites gastank as well. Allegedly.


I don't even want to know where you learned that!!


----------



## MilEME09

Retired AF Guy said:


> I don't even want to know where you learned that!!


Nope but now you'll remember it forever


----------



## The Bread Guy

Soldier35 said:


> ... *Now it is known that the Ukrainian media lied that Russia does not allow grain to be exported from Ports.*


That's very generous of USSR 2.0 moving someone else's grain elsewhere - sort of like me selling your car without you getting any money.  

Also, let's see if this holds as true as "nobody's planning to invade UKR" ...


> ... The Russian president said his armed forces would not use the removal of mines “to launch any attacks [on Ukraine] from the sea.” ...


🍿 


Good2Golf said:


> @Soldier35  No doubt Russia will apply a “wheat tax” to Ukrainian shipments to feed the VKS!!! 😮
> View attachment 71230


Well played!


----------



## Skysix

Retired AF Guy said:


> I don't even want to know where you learned that!!


Chilliwack


----------



## Dana381

MilEME09 said:


> Jesus and I thought we had fitness problems, Russian officer
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1533889300630216704


Reminds me of my son's army cadets instructor


----------



## Colin Parkinson

I think it's time the UK exert it's historical claim to the Crimea 

From Quroa:  
Thus some of the English took up the offer of establishing a ‘New England’ (or Nova Anglia) settlement across the Black Sea, evidently in the Crimea and to the south of the nearby Sea of Azov.


There is evidence to support this. Medieval maritime charts of the area show place names such as ‘Londina’ (London) and ‘Susaco’ (Sussex). [2]






The English colonialists kept their independence. According to the French account, Chronicon universale anonymi Laudunensis, when an envoy of the Byzantine emperor came to Nova Anglia demanding taxes, they killed him.

A hundred years later, missionaries passing through this area reported coming across a Christian people who called themselves ‘Saxi’ (Saxons).

NOTES

[1] Siward Barn was the only landowner named ‘Siward’ listed in William the Conqueror’s Domesday Book of 1086 as having substantial holdings in Gloucestershire. He had been captured and imprisoned in 1071 while fighting for the English resistance against the Normans, but was released from prison by a guilt-ridden King William just before the latter’s death in 1087. If the Anglo-Saxon fleet arrived in Constantinople in 1088, then this could well be the same Siward.

[2] According to Andrew Philips (1952):



> “After painstaking research it has been discovered that mediæval maps of this region list no fewer than six towns with names suggesting English settlements. These settlements on maps of the fourteenth to sixteenth centuries are located along the northern coast of the Black Sea. One of the names appears as ‘Susaco’, possibly from ‘Saxon’. Another town, situated some 110 miles to the east of the straits of Kerch near the Sea of Azov appears variously as ‘Londia’, ‘Londin’ and ‘Londina’. On the twelfth century Syrian map the Sea of Azov itself is called the ‘Varang’ Sea, the Sea of the Varangians, a name used for the English in Constantinople at this period.” -


----------



## The Bread Guy

Show us your support!








						Russian plastic surgeon offers women 'patriotic breast implants'
					

A Russian plastic surgeon is offering women the chance to support the war against Ukraine with "patriotic breast implants."Moscow-based plastic surgeon Yevgeny Dobreykin is promoting breast implants for "real patriots" - and the implants are pretty unique.Called "Rosgurd," these breast implants...




					www.indy100.com


----------



## CBH99

The Bread Guy said:


> Show us your support!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian plastic surgeon offers women 'patriotic breast implants'
> 
> 
> A Russian plastic surgeon is offering women the chance to support the war against Ukraine with "patriotic breast implants."Moscow-based plastic surgeon Yevgeny Dobreykin is promoting breast implants for "real patriots" - and the implants are pretty unique.Called "Rosgurd," these breast implants...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.indy100.com


I respect the hell out of this guy.  Good on ya sir!  Anything to show support to one's country!

'Merica, f°°k yeah! 

Oh wait...


----------



## daftandbarmy

Beware of kindly old ladies bearing spiked pies 

Ukraine’s partisans are hitting Russian soldiers behind their own lines​In Russian-occupied cities like Melitopol, covert resistance continues​
The russians took the strategic rail-hub city of Melitopol on the third day of the war, their route apparently greased by Ukrainian turncoats. Controlling the city, a crucial segment of Vladimir Putin’s land bridge to Crimea, has proven somewhat trickier. Every few days brings a surprising report: an armoured train destroyed and a grenade attack on a command post (May 18th); railway tracks and a radar station blown up (May 22nd); a pro-Ukrainian rally (May 29th); and a collaborator’s house hit by an explosion (May 30th). Ukraine claims its partisans have killed more than 100 Russian soldiers behind enemy lines in Melitopol. “Our people are doing everything to make sure the land burns under the feet of the occupiers,” says the town’s mayor, Ivan Fedorov, now safe in Ukrainian-controlled territory.

Melitopol is the unofficial capital of Ukraine’s resistance. Since mid-March the war maps produced by the American-based Institute for the Study of War show it covered in stripes, meaning it is territory where partisans are active. But it is far from the only place that has seen such operations. In neighbouring Kherson, a Russian-controlled airbase has been blown up nearly two dozen times. In Enerhodar, Andrii Shevchyk, the collaborationist mayor, was the target of an unsuccessful assassination attempt. In Izyum, hungry Russian soldiers were purportedly given spiked pies by a seemingly friendly old lady, according to a telephone conversation between a Russian soldier and his girlfriend that was intercepted by Ukrainian intelligence; eight of them reportedly ended up dead. When Russians abandon tanks or petrol trucks, Ukrainian farmers tow them away. Reports of explosions at arms dumps trickle in from the occupied regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.


Fires and explosions at military facilities inside Russia itself are, apparently, becoming more common. In many cases, the evidence points to poor fire safety. But Ukrainian special forces do appear to be targeting supply chains in Russia’s border provinces. On at least one occasion a helicopter struck an oil-storage facility in the Russian city of Bryansk. Officials in Kyiv refuse to comment on the operations. Speaking off the record, a tight-lipped senior intelligence officer says it would be better to speak to a priest: “This is God’s work. God is punishing the Russian Federation. Maybe not directly. Maybe not with his own hands. Maybe he has to use helicopters.”

Ukraine’s underground resistance in occupied territories is co-ordinated by a unit of its armed forces called the Special Operations Forces (sso). The division was formed in 2015 after attempts at partisan activity failed disastrously in the early stages of the war in the Donbas. A former operative in the unit, who asked to remain anonymous, says the work is split into three parts: military action, support operations and psychological warfare. “Say the task is to stop the enemy from moving more reserves to Melitopol,” he explains. “The sso assigns special forces the task of blowing up a bridge, it asks partisans to damage the railway, and it gets psy-ops [psychological operations] to print leaflets to say we’re on the watch. So in the end, only half the troops dare to come.”

The source says his colleagues spent considerable time preparing potential partisans—“simple local people, but with a secret”—in the years leading up to the war. He refuses to go into detail about the training, but says the basics could be found in “Total Resistance”, a classic guerrilla instruction manual written in 1957 to prepare the Swiss for potential occupation by Warsaw Pact countries. A website published by the sso offers life hacks for Ukraine’s underground warriors. This includes advice about how to organise clandestine resistance (stick to a need-to-know basis), prepare an ambush (ensure clear escape routes), and cope with being arrested (keep calm and hope for the best).

Vladimir Zhemchugov ran dozens of partisan operations for Ukraine in his native Luhansk in 2014-15, before he was maimed by a mine and captured. He says the current resistance mixes professional soldiers and volunteers “60-40, in that order”. Mr Zhemchugov, who now helps train volunteers, says Ukrainian authorities had laid down the basic structure for an insurgency in a few rushed months before the war. A network of secret arms dumps, safe houses and potential sympathisers now exists across the country; in some cases, criminal networks were co-opted. But the preparation was less thorough than it could have been. It was apparently undermined by officials who later switched to support Russia. “The security services and police proved to be our weakest link.”

As in 2014, when war erupted in eastern Ukraine, Russia’s security services appear to have got their hands on secret military databases. In Kherson, Russian officers are visiting the homes of Ukrainians who served in the army. Those who haven’t managed to switch addresses are detained, beaten, tortured or worse. “This work isn’t always good for one’s health,” says the sso source. “The risks are real and it isn’t a walk in the park.” Russia also appears to be stepping up efforts to stamp out Ukrainian resistance, increasing arrests and demonstrative punishments. But intercepts released by Ukrainian security services suggest some Russian soldiers are fearful. “Every fucking night we’re fighting with diversionary groups who come into the village,” one soldier tells his friend in a call. “Some of us have had enough. We’re getting the fuck out of here.”

Mr Fedorov, Melitopol’s mayor, was abducted by occupying forces before being released on March 16th in a prisoner exchange. He said Ukraine’s resistance would continue to attract new recruits despite the risks. Only one in ten of Melitopol’s residents had switched to the other side, and that wasn’t a critical mass, he suggested. But the true strength of Ukraine’s resistance will be tested only in a new phase of the war: provided enough Western weapons arrive, Kyiv hopes to launch a counter-attack to retake the south. The tight-lipped intelligence officer predicts Ukraine’s underground army will prove to be a big asset. He suggests Vladimir Putin’s troops will be forced to beat an ugly retreat. “The Russians will be able to write another ‘War and Peace’. I’ve always been very fond of Tolstoy.” 









						Ukraine’s partisans are hitting Russian soldiers behind their own lines
					

In Russian-occupied cities like Melitopol, covert resistance continues




					www.economist.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Appears one M109 has already been destroyed. Seems odd to park it in the middle of the field?









						WAR[Z]ONE
					

🇷🇺Огневое поражение поставленных Норвегией Украине 155-мм САУ M109A3.




					t.me
				





__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1534145911911337984


----------



## Good2Golf

Colin Parkinson said:


> Appears one M109 has already been destroyed. Seems odd to park it in the middle of the field?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> WAR[Z]ONE
> 
> 
> 🇷🇺Огневое поражение поставленных Норвегией Украине 155-мм САУ M109A3.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> t.me
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1534145911911337984


I don’t know.  I saw a regimental fire mission that completely missed the SPG… 🤷🏻‍♂️

0:08 in the video (re-orientated to match orientation with post-fire mission angle)


…and 23 seconds later…after a large but ineffectual non-precision distribution of RUAF artillery (that, to its credit, is at least in the same time zone as the intended target):


----------



## Colin Parkinson

There is a fire to the left and up a bit, might be grass, ammunition or another vehicle?


----------



## AmmoTech90

Good2Golf said:


> I don’t know.  I saw a regimental fire mission that completely missed the SPG… 🤷🏻‍♂️
> 
> 0:08 in the video (re-orientated to match orientation with post-fire mission angle)
> View attachment 71244
> 
> …and 23 seconds later…after a large but ineffectual non-precision distribution of RUAF artillery (that, to its credit, is at least in the same time zone as the intended target):
> View attachment 71245


There's at least two more vehicles to the left of the one circled above the road. And some secondary fires at the second to the left.  Could be some propellant that another vehicle had stack behind it like the one in the close up.
Not a regimental fire mission.  Just two to three Grads firing part of their load each.  Takes around 20 seconds to fire all 40.  There's around 30 to 40 impacts in around 10 seconds.


----------



## dapaterson

Best served cold.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1534045977161748481


----------



## Blackadder1916

daftandbarmy said:


> He refuses to go into detail about the training, but says the basics could be found in “*Total Resistance*”, a classic guerrilla instruction manual written in 1957 to prepare the Swiss for potential occupation by Warsaw Pact countries.



I haven't had a look at that pam since the 1970s.  Still some helpful hints.









						Total Resistance Swiss Army Guide To Guerilla Warfare (1965) : H. von Dach Bern : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive
					

Total Resistance, originally published in German as Der totale Widerstand: Eine Kleinkriegsanleitung für Jedermann (Total Resistance: A Guerrilla Warfare...



					archive.org


----------



## Blackadder1916

The Bread Guy said:


> Show us your support!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian plastic surgeon offers women 'patriotic breast implants'
> 
> 
> A Russian plastic surgeon is offering women the chance to support the war against Ukraine with "patriotic breast implants."Moscow-based plastic surgeon Yevgeny Dobreykin is promoting breast implants for "real patriots" - and the implants are pretty unique.Called "Rosgurd," these breast implants...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.indy100.com



I'm waiting for Soldier35's endorsement!  

He is, after all, a boob.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Blackadder1916 said:


> I haven't had a look at that pam since the 1970s.  Still some helpful hints.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Total Resistance Swiss Army Guide To Guerilla Warfare (1965) : H. von Dach Bern : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive
> 
> 
> Total Resistance, originally published in German as Der totale Widerstand: Eine Kleinkriegsanleitung für Jedermann (Total Resistance: A Guerrilla Warfare...
> 
> 
> 
> archive.org


I have it in HC and its been ages since I've checked it out. Very interesting book.


----------



## Skysix

These guys should get the Ukrainian equivalent of the DFC








						Low, Fast And Dangerous: A Firsthand Account Of Ukraine's Secret Helicopter Rescue Missions
					

In an exclusive interview, one rescuer describes the helicopter missions into the besieged Azovstal Steel plant in Russian-occupied Mariupol.




					www.thedrive.com


----------



## MilEME09




----------



## TacticalTea

Dunno if this was shared here yet, UK getting on that MLRS wagon: 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1533729024710692866


----------



## FJAG

TacticalTea said:


> Dunno if this was shared here yet, UK getting on that MLRS wagon:
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1533729024710692866


Interesting. The UK has 44 M270B1 systems which were all slated for retention and upgrading over the next five years.

There are hundreds of M270s in storage in the US. My guess the Brits will probably be getting replacements out of those stocks but upgraded to M270D1s possibly at bargain basement prices from the US now.

This is what happens if you are truly America's best friend and seek to have a credible army.

🍻


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> Ukrainian soldier: Russian artillery in Ukraine is hell. A soldier of the Ukrainian army appreciated the work of Russian artillery in Ukraine. According to him, this is hell, Russian artillery strikes everyone, Smerch MLRS, Hurricane MLRS, tanks, everything strikes, Russian artillery strikes for an hour, for two, and then the Russian army begins to attack, Ukrainian soldiers have to sit in the trenches and hide from the blows of the Russian Army
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Russian army hunts down and destroys Western weapons supplied to Ukraine. The M109A3GN self-propelled guns delivered by Norway to Ukraine with a caliber of 155 mm came under attack by Russian artillery in Ukraine. The M109 self-propelled guns were tracked by UAVs and the Russian MLRS Grad struck. On the video, you can see the guaranteed destruction of one installation, it is quite possible that others were damaged, since the body of the self-propelled guns is made of aluminum alloy. SAU M109A3GN is a Norwegian version of the American M109 SPG, which was supplied to many countries in various modifications.



@Soldier35, do you get extra pay for humorous posts?

Is that the same M109A3 that’s totally untouched after a Russian artillery fire mission hit pretty much everything else in the country side BUT the M109…see below:









						Ukraine - Superthread
					

Show us your support! https://www.indy100.com/viral/russian-plastic-surgeon-patriotic-breast-implants




					army.ca


----------



## CBH99

Skysix said:


> These guys should get the Ukrainian equivalent of the DFC
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Low, Fast And Dangerous: A Firsthand Account Of Ukraine's Secret Helicopter Rescue Missions
> 
> 
> In an exclusive interview, one rescuer describes the helicopter missions into the besieged Azovstal Steel plant in Russian-occupied Mariupol.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedrive.com


I can understand the bigger picture of why NATO dragged its heels in regards to Ukraine’s application/interest… we didn’t want to escalate anything with Russia or cause them to react.  

Since they’ve both reacted and escalated to the extreme, that’s no longer an issue.  Ukraine ought to be a NATO member when this is all over with - they’ve demonstrated absolute cunning, resilience, bravery, and heroism in the face of an overwhelming & unreasonable enemy.  

Wasn’t it the Ukrainian special forces that were the first to go outside the wire & start to evacuate not only their citizens, but others trapped also, during Operation Shitshow in AFG?


If one country has earned the right to be added to the membership, it’s Ukraine.  By far.  

(My humble 2 cents)


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1534401942729986048


----------



## Portnord

MilEME09 said:


> Jesus and I thought we had fitness problems, Russian officer
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1533889300630216704


I thought it was the yachts, but I think I just located most of the diverted Russian military spending.


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> No, this is such a sense of humor among the soldiers of Ukraine, there are already plenty of such videos, this one is the brightest


You should be paid extra for your entertaining information.  👍🏼


----------



## The Bread Guy

Soldier35 said:


> ... Where is the link to the news that Ukraine does not want to ship grain?


I'll bite - you have such a link?  Ideally, not associated with the Russian government or a pro-Russian fanboy/amplifier site?


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> I'll bite - you have such a link?  Ideally, not associated with the Russian government or a pro-Russian fanboy/amplifier site?


I'll save you from the Kremlin version


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1533905635435233282
Russia Saya Ukraine can export its grain though either Belarus, or Russia. Additionally Russia says demining the black sea is Ukraines responsibility even though Russia is the one who mined it.

I'd reject a deal too if I wasn't involved I  it, and required me to give my exports to my enemy









						Turkey struggles to push Russia, Ukraine into grain deal to avert food crisis
					

Turkish efforts to ease a global food crisis by negotiating safe passage for grain stuck in Black Sea ports met resistance as Ukraine said Russia was imposing unreasonable conditions and the Kremlin said free shipment depended on an end to sanctions.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## KevinB

Soldier35 said:


> The work of Russian special forces in Ukraine was caught on video. The purpose of the special forces was to find a mobile Ukrainian crew with a mortar. According to the results of the battle, two servicemen of Ukraine were destroyed and one was taken prisoner, the wounded was provided with medical assistance.


LOL - Shooting from the hip and haphazard spraying automatic fire -- plus looks like their took out their own guy.
  Special alright...


----------



## TacticalTea

Soldier35 said:


> problems with grain exports are due to Ukraine


That is some serious gymnastics. 10/10


----------



## KevinB

In the can you stop digging for a bit so you can pull your head out of your ass Russia moments...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1534558168294080519


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> In the can you stop digging for a bit so you can pull your head out of your ass Russia moments...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1534558168294080519


Good thing NATO recognizes their independence, and have a eFP Battlegroup in place to remind them of it.


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> Ukraine Cautious as Turkey, Russia Push Black Sea Grain Deal​
> Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government has offered military help to clear mines off the coast of Odesa and escort grain ships but Ukraine has yet to endorse the plan, worried that removing defenses could leave the vital port open to Russian attack, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss matters that aren’t yet public. Turkey hopes that a United Nations endorsement of the proposal could allay security concerns, the people said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine Cautious as Turkey, Russia Push Black Sea Grain Deal
> 
> 
> Turkey and Russia have reached a tentative deal to restart shipments of Ukraine’s agricultural products from a key Black Sea port, but Kyiv remains skeptical of the proposed pact, according to people familiar with the discussions.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.bloomberg.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Here's the US media confirming that the problems with grain exports are due to Ukraine


Thanks for this, @Soldier35.  It acknowledges that it is Russia’s invasion that has cause the grain shortages around the world. 

Perhaps you missed it?

This from the Bloomberg article:



> The Kremlin’s invasion has cut off shipments of grain and other farm products from Ukraine, threatening millions of people in its traditional markets with food shortages.



Naughty Russia!


----------



## The Bread Guy

Soldier35 said:


> Ukraine Cautious as Turkey, Russia Push Black Sea Grain Deal​
> Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government has offered military help to clear mines off the coast of Odesa and escort grain ships but Ukraine has yet to endorse the plan, worried that removing defenses could leave the vital port open to Russian attack, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss matters that aren’t yet public. Turkey hopes that a United Nations endorsement of the proposal could allay security concerns, the people said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine Cautious as Turkey, Russia Push Black Sea Grain Deal
> 
> 
> Turkey and Russia have reached a tentative deal to restart shipments of Ukraine’s agricultural products from a key Black Sea port, but Kyiv remains skeptical of the proposed pact, according to people familiar with the discussions.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.bloomberg.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Here's the US media confirming that the problems with grain exports are due to Ukraine


So Ukraine wanting security guarantees that Russia won't swarm the Black Sea (more than it has) to attack Ukraine is "I don't want to?"  Or is it "I don't want to UNTIL ..."?

Also, if we had censorship, this link (and the previous post with the same link) would have been treated like Russia treats Facebook.


----------



## The Bread Guy

TacticalTea said:


> That is some serious gymnastics. 10/10


... from the Russian judge, anyway ...


----------



## MilEME09

Is that a tims cup???


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1534596595899318272


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> Is that a tims cup???
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1534596595899318272


EVERYONE's on the "snack & shoot" selfie bandwagon


----------



## suffolkowner

CBH99 said:


> I can understand the bigger picture of why NATO dragged its heels in regards to Ukraine’s application/interest… we didn’t want to escalate anything with Russia or cause them to react.
> 
> Since they’ve both reacted and escalated to the extreme, that’s no longer an issue.  Ukraine ought to be a NATO member when this is all over with - they’ve demonstrated absolute cunning, resilience, bravery, and heroism in the face of an overwhelming & unreasonable enemy.
> 
> Wasn’t it the Ukrainian special forces that were the first to go outside the wire & start to evacuate not only their citizens, but others trapped also, during Operation Shitshow in AFG?
> 
> 
> If one country has earned the right to be added to the membership, it’s Ukraine.  By far.
> 
> (My humble 2 cents)


I agree as soon as this nonsense is over Ukraine should be invited to join. Of course they will have to resolve their border issues with Russia and be approved. Could be a problem with Hungary and Turkey especially but maybe time for a new collective minus a few members including Germany, France and Italy being on the bubble


----------



## KevinB

suffolkowner said:


> I agree as soon as this nonsense is over Ukraine should be invited to join. Of course they will have to resolve their border issues with Russia and be approved. Could be a problem with Hungary and Turkey especially but maybe time for a new collective minus a few members including Germany, France and Italy being on the bubble


If we are kicking out problem children and freeloading loafs, Canada might want to wake up.


----------



## Blackadder1916

Soldier35 said:


> In general, the link was to the news from. Bloomberg L.P. is one of the two leading American providers of financial information for professional participants in financial markets. I won't look for her a second time. it's bad that you delete news without even reading it



Enough of this squabbling about who has the better news coverage!  What we want to know is your opinion of this development.









						Russian plastic surgeon offers women 'patriotic breast implants'
					

A Russian plastic surgeon is offering women the chance to support the war against Ukraine with "patriotic breast implants."Moscow-based plastic surgeon Yevgeny Dobreykin is promoting breast implants for "real patriots" - and the implants are pretty unique.Called "Rosgurd," these breast implants...




					www.indy100.com
				




Just as the early Cold War was a race to close the "missile gap", are we now facing a "breast gap"?  Can Russians keep it up without diverting significant resources to augmenting the front line?  Where's Russ Meyer when you need him?


----------



## torg003

KevinB said:


> If we are kicking out problem children and freeloading loafs, Canada might want to wake up.


Yeah, but Canada feels safe and secure in being American's little buddy so thinks no one will do anything ( well, unless it's the Americans).


----------



## KevinB

torg003 said:


> Yeah, but Canada feels safe and secure in being American's little buddy so thinks no one will do anything ( well, unless it's the Americans).


Which is 100% the problem


----------



## torg003

Exactly.  Thinking the Americans will protect us if North America is attacked is what led to Unification.  Having a fully capable Armed Forces wasn't considered something we really needed.


----------



## TacticalTea

That's why I was thankful for Trump. He made it really obvious we couldn't be so reliant on the US, militarily or economically.

Left too quickly to make a lasting impact, though...


----------



## suffolkowner

KevinB said:


> If we are kicking out problem children and freeloading loafs, Canada might want to wake up.


I'm glad you said it and not me! I was going to add us to the list to be honest but as the great and former Altair used to say there are a lot of NATO nations that have the gear and people on paper but do not contribute much in reality. Our governments continue to write checks with other peoples sweat and blood and eventually the chicken is going to come home to roost. 

Versus








						Poland signs $650M defense contract with Ukraine
					

Poland has signed a defense contract with Ukraine worth PLN 2.7 billion (about $650 million) for the sale of Krab self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				




Poland is rapidly joining Australia, Netherlands, and Uk on the list of reliable allies


----------



## MilEME09

Retro with a modern twist?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1534673557925634048


----------



## The Bread Guy

Soldier35 said:


> In general, the link was to the news from. Bloomberg L.P ... it's bad that you delete news without even reading it


Just to be clear, it wasn't "censored" - still there ...


Soldier35 said:


> Ukraine Cautious as Turkey, Russia Push Black Sea Grain Deal
> 
> Turkey and Russia have reached a tentative deal to restart shipments of Ukraine’s agricultural products from a key Black Sea port, but Kyiv remains skeptical of the proposed pact, according to people familiar with the discussions.
> 
> Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government has offered military help to clear mines off the coast of Odesa and escort grain ships but Ukraine has yet to endorse the plan, worried that removing defenses could leave the vital port open to Russian attack, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss matters that aren’t yet public. Turkey hopes that a United Nations endorsement of the proposal could allay security concerns, the people said.
> 
> Ukraine itself does not allow grain to be exported. Now it is known that the Ukrainian media lied that Russia does not allow grain to be exported from Ports.


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR DefMin:  thanks for what you've sent, but we need more - fast ....


> ... A key strategic decision of the past period was a change in philosophy: we launched the transfer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to heavy weaponry used by NATO member states. First of all, this applies to artillery, which plays a decisive role.    In early March we were already well aware that during intensive war with russia our resources were depleting and our existing reserves were incomparable to those of the enemy. Relying solely on Soviet weapons was definitely a losing strategy.    Therefore, by turning to our partners for help, we initiated the supply of 155 mm artillery units and other heavy weapons ...





> ... we have already received, bought on the market, manufactured and handed over to the Armed Forces of Ukraine a significant number of weapons. These numbers would have been enough for a victorious defence operation against any army in Europe.    But not against russia.    The russian junk has many more means in store to devour human lives in a bid to satisfy its imperial ego.    That is why we emphasize: Ukraine desperately needs heavy weapons, and very fast. We have proved that, unlike many others, we do not fear the Kremlin. But as a country we cannot afford to be losing our best sons and daughters ...





> ... our goals are as follows:
> • to obtain a significant amount of NATO-type MLRS units with ammo;
> • to ensure complete replacement of some existing Soviet-type calibers (worn guns, shells not produced or scarce) with platforms that are common in NATO countries and equipped with ammo;
> • to agree with partners regarding the transition from supplies of separate platforms to integral organic units immediately ready for combat. This will significantly boost efficiency on the battlefield;
> • to ensure the supply of hundreds of heavy armored vehicles, without which effective counterattack is impossible. It should be considered that Soviet equipment is mostly obsolete and needs to be prepared for combat. Meanwhile, we are receiving only light armor from partners, not necessarily with weapons;
> • to obtain fighter jets, anti-aircraft and missile defence systems to protect our skies ...





> ... The situation at the front lines is difficult. Every day we have up to 100 of our soldiers killed and up to 500 wounded. The kremlin continues to press by sheer mass, stumbles, faces strong rebuff and suffers huge casualties. But yet still has forces to advance in some parts of the front ...


----------



## Kirkhill

My WW2 Fallschirmjaeger buddy, who did a stint on the Russian Front, said the biggest problem he faced there was running out of bullets before he ran out of targets.


----------



## CBH99

The Bread Guy said:


> UKR DefMin:  thanks for what you've sent, but we need more - fast ....


Wasn’t it Stalin himself who said quantity has a quality all its own?  (Ironically in very similar circumstances.)

Advantage of having a large population, and not really giving a hoot about it’s well being… sheer numbers.  They don’t have be trained up on par, or have cutting edge tech.  A large rolling pin of bodies fuelled with propaganda is sometimes all ya really need, as USSR 2.0 knows well.  


I’m surprised that at the rate Russia was losing aircraft for a while there - and still has some days with multiple aircraft losses - that the Russian Air Force even has the ability to conduct air operations over Ukraine still.  

I don’t think either side can ever achieve true air superiority in the sense that we’ve enjoyed since Vietnam.  Any support to ground forces will be inherently dangerous in that both sides have quite capable SAM systems, even if only focusing on MANPADS.  



We also have to remember that the front between Russian forces & Ukranian forces stretches to almost 1000km, it just doesn’t seem that way since the front isn’t a straight line.  That’s a lot of territory to keep an eye on, and be able to respond to if the enemy sneaks across somewhere.  

A conflict like this was exactly the wake up call some countries needed - obviously that includes us.  Artillery really is the king of battle, this should make it a much easier cell when it’s time for us to upgrade and expand our artillery units🤞🏻


----------



## FJAG

CBH99 said:


> A conflict like this was exactly the wake up call some countries needed - obviously that includes us. Artillery really is the king of battle, this should make it a much easier cell when it’s time for us to upgrade and expand our artillery units🤞🏻


It should but I'm not optimistic. 

In Kandahar, the first few years very much showed how neglected the artillery had become and how much of a role it played on the battlefield. This resulted in a small bump in equipment acquisition for things which had not been in the departmental plan. The next several years were a kinder and gentler type of war where artillery was used sparingly and once again it took a back seat. It was in the "Afghanistan Peace Dividend" in 2011 that Canada's air defence capability was divested. Our requirement for deep strike rocket launchers has been around for almost a half a century unfulfilled and don't get me started on SP divestiture.

Canada and its army has a tremendous capacity for self delusion. As was just posted in another thread, "it's leadership by consensus and command by committee" that rules us. It simply isn't in our nature to commit a few billion dollars on new artillery equipment and ammunition war stocks and then hand it over primarily to the reserves (where most of it should be to save recurring PY expenses) in the event that at some time in the future we may really need to fight. It's much easier to focus on the day-to-day demands of a moribund system. One of the problems is that right now we're congratulating ourselves for having given the Ukraine fairly modern M777s. These do have a certain level of usefulness in a sluggish war such is going on now. It will be quite easy for senior non-gunner leaders to convince themselves that what we have is ample to form one 18 gun regiment to support one deployed brigade group if need be.

My guess is that we'll put everything in abeyance for a few years while captains and a few majors are tasked to study this conflict. They'll write nice reports that everyone will sagely nod their heads to ... and do nothing. All that I expect that will come out of this war for the Army is the already ongoing GBAD project and, hopefully, a suite of decent anti-armour weapon war stocks.


----------



## OldSolduer

CBH99 said:


> Wasn’t it Stalin himself who said quantity has a quality all its own?  (Ironically in very similar circumstances.)
> 
> 
> 
> A conflict like this was exactly the wake up call some countries needed - obviously that includes us.  Artillery really is the king of battle, this should make it a much easier cell when it’s time for us to upgrade and expand our artillery units🤞🏻


Your first point yes I believe it was.

As to your second the only thing that has been woken in this country for a while is the (insert outraged demographic here) against (insert another demographic here)  Now that's woke.....


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1534913977083469831


----------



## Kirkhill

FJAG said:


> It should but I'm not optimistic.
> 
> In Kandahar, the first few years very much showed how neglected the artillery had become and how much of a role it played on the battlefield. This resulted in a small bump in equipment acquisition for things which had not been in the departmental plan. The next several years were a kinder and gentler type of war where artillery was used sparingly and once again it took a back seat. It was in the "Afghanistan Peace Dividend" in 2011 that Canada's air defence capability was divested. Our requirement for deep strike rocket launchers has been around for almost a half a century unfulfilled and don't get me started on SP divestiture.
> 
> Canada and its army has a tremendous capacity for self delusion. As was just posted in another thread, "it's leadership by consensus and command by committee" that rules us. It simply isn't in our nature to commit a few billion dollars on new artillery equipment and ammunition war stocks and then hand it over primarily to the reserves (where most of it should be to save recurring PY expenses) in the event that at some time in the future we may really need to fight. It's much easier to focus on the day-to-day demands of a moribund system. One of the problems is that right now we're congratulating ourselves for having given the Ukraine fairly modern M777s. These do have a certain level of usefulness in a sluggish war such is going on now. It will be quite easy for senior non-gunner leaders to convince themselves that what we have is ample to form one 18 gun regiment to support one deployed brigade group if need be.
> 
> My guess is that we'll put everything in abeyance for a few years while captains and a few majors are tasked to study this conflict. They'll write nice reports that everyone will sagely nod their heads to ... and do nothing. All that I expect that will come out of this war for the Army is the already ongoing GBAD project and, hopefully, a suite of decent anti-armour weapon war stocks.



A good start would be if NATO/NORAD demanded that we build and inventory ammunition.  We may not have a need for it but obviously others do.

If we were to start packing new warehouses at Dundurn with Harpoons, NSMs, ESSMs, AIM-120s etc (stuff that we actually use but use sparingly)  then that would increase our contribution to NATO and also result in a sunk cost reducing the costs of other capital projects.   If you have the missiles to put in the ships and subs, on the planes and into the arty's launchers, then those costs shouldn't be added to capital projects, they should be deducted.

And, as in the case of 105mm and 84mm ammunition, once the ammunition is in the system decisions on weapons becomes much easier.


----------



## Czech_pivo

FJAG said:


> *Canada* and its army *has a tremendous capacity for self delusion. *


No sentence spoken or written since 1953 in Canada has greater meaning than the one above.  It's a perfect representation of each and every problem/challenge that this country has faced since then.


----------



## GK .Dundas

Good2Golf said:


> @Soldier35  No doubt Russia will apply a “wheat tax” to Ukrainian shipments to feed the VKS!!! 😮
> View attachment 71230





Soldier35 said:


> In Donetsk, the Supreme Court sentenced foreign mercenaries to death. The British Aiden Aslin and Sean Pinner and the Moroccan Saadun Brahim, who participated in the hostilities in Ukraine, were sentenced to death by the court.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In Ukraine, the Ukrainian multiple launch rocket system "Bureviy" with a caliber of 220 mm was noticed. The Bureviy MLRS is a multiple launch rocket system on the chassis of the Czech TATRA T815-7T3RC1 with a wheel formula of 8×8. The MLRS is an upgraded version of the Soviet MLRS 9K57 "Hurricane", developed in the early seventies. During the development, Bureviy was supposed to receive a modern digital fire control system that simplifies the production of data for firing and new means of communication. According to the developers, the MLRS can work in a single reconnaissance and strike circuits of the tactical link and show high performance, whether it is implemented or not is unknown. The launcher and missiles are borrowed unchanged from the basic MLRS "Hurricane", depending on the type of missile, a firing range of 5 to 35 km is provided.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There was a video of the strikes of the Russian army, on the soldiers of the Ukrainian army using anti-tank systems. Judging by the footage, in this episode, the Ukrainian ATGM "Stugna" is mainly used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The events shown in the video took place in Mariupol, in addition, the video gives an answer why there is so much destruction as a result of hostilities. The Ukrainian army actively uses residential buildings to shelter its military personnel.


Hey Putin, fuck your mother !


----------



## Czech_pivo

Soldier35 said:


> In Donetsk, the Supreme Court sentenced foreign mercenaries to death. The British Aiden Aslin and Sean Pinner and the Moroccan Saadun Brahim, who participated in the hostilities in Ukraine, were sentenced to death by the court.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In Ukraine, the Ukrainian multiple launch rocket system "Bureviy" with a caliber of 220 mm was noticed. The Bureviy MLRS is a multiple launch rocket system on the chassis of the Czech TATRA T815-7T3RC1 with a wheel formula of 8×8. The MLRS is an upgraded version of the Soviet MLRS 9K57 "Hurricane", developed in the early seventies. During the development, Bureviy was supposed to receive a modern digital fire control system that simplifies the production of data for firing and new means of communication. According to the developers, the MLRS can work in a single reconnaissance and strike circuits of the tactical link and show high performance, whether it is implemented or not is unknown. The launcher and missiles are borrowed unchanged from the basic MLRS "Hurricane", depending on the type of missile, a firing range of 5 to 35 km is provided.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There was a video of the strikes of the Russian army, on the soldiers of the Ukrainian army using anti-tank systems. Judging by the footage, in this episode, the Ukrainian ATGM "Stugna" is mainly used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The events shown in the video took place in Mariupol, in addition, the video gives an answer why there is so much destruction as a result of hostilities. The Ukrainian army actively uses residential buildings to shelter its military personnel.


So I guess each and every 'foreign mercenaries' from Wagner that Ukraine captures should expect the same outcome?


----------



## KevinB

Soldier35 said:


> In Donetsk, the Supreme Court sentenced foreign mercenaries to death. The British Aiden Aslin and Sean Pinner and the Moroccan Saadun Brahim, who participated in the hostilities in Ukraine, were sentenced to death by the court.


You may want to pass on a primer of the LOAC to your bosses...


			https://www.genevacall.org/wp-content/uploads/dlm_uploads/2013/11/The-Law-of-Armed-Conflict.pdf
		


By ignoring their status as lawful combatants, all you do is give US an excuse to punt you from the planet.


----------



## Skysix

KevinB said:


> You may want to pass on a primer of the LOAC to your bosses...
> 
> 
> https://www.genevacall.org/wp-content/uploads/dlm_uploads/2013/11/The-Law-of-Armed-Conflict.pdf


The fundamental flaw in your assertion is one of the cultural differences between the 20th/21st century developed world view and the 16th/17th century Russ world view.

Put simply, they do not believe there are any rules in war beyond "might makes right" and "winners write history"

If they can do 'x' without causing an unacceptable amount of damage to themselves, they do it. And their definition of acceptable loss does not count human losses as relevant except as a shortage of meat armor to protect the trigger/lanyard pullers/launch button pushers that are required to waste the target. What we consider war crimes they consider an intimidation or opposition removal tactic that only matters if the direct consequences to the ruling class is more than they are willing to endure.

Fundamentally the Russian leadership view civilized nations as weak prey to be exploited and their threats as just that, threats rarely made good on. "Frozen assets"? Meh - when this all blows over they will still be there.

Sieze the cash and spend it. 
Sieze the vessles or aircraft and destroy/scrap them. Rendition as many as SF can find to Gitmo or better yet a Ukrainian gulag.
Turn off the pipelines and blow them.
Take off the parade dress gloves and put on knuckle dusters and stop using Ukrainian blood to degrade the Russian capabilities for you and only for as long as it suits you.

We are in a presence of a (currently) localised total war between an autocratic/despotic philosophy and a democratic/monarchic one. The G20 are not witness to history, just further down on the target queue.

Rant Off


----------



## MilEME09

It's about to suck to be Russian infantry


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1534989030630342666


----------



## MilEME09

Putin compares him self to Peter the great, declaring he will take back Russian lands....

We need to stop thinking Ukraine is the only goal


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1535062600278482961


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> It's about to suck to be Russian infantry
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1534989030630342666



My old man talked about the effect of those on German troops in the Falaise pocket, 1944:

'Everything was blown in half this high (holding his hand at waist height), people, trees, horses, trucks.... "


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> It's about to suck to be Russian infantry
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1534989030630342666


France seems high - most countries have given variable fusing that allows Point Detonation, Delay, Variable time or Proximity


----------



## RangerRay

MilEME09 said:


> Putin compares him self to Peter the great, declaring he will take back Russian lands....
> 
> We need to stop thinking Ukraine is the only goal
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1535062600278482961



It’s not USSR 2.0, it’s Russian Empire 2.0  minus tsar in name only!


----------



## KevinB

RangerRay said:


> It’s not USSR 2.0, it’s Russian Empire 2.0  minus tsar in name only!


His ego knows no bounds. 
   Next he will crown himself Galactic Space Emperor.


----------



## RangerRay

KevinB said:


> His ego knows no bounds.
> Next he will crown himself Galactic Space Emperor.


I am actually surprised he has not declared himself Tsar. He has absolute control of the state and I believe the Russian people would support it.


----------



## KevinB

RangerRay said:


> I am actually surprised he has not declared himself Tsar. He has absolute control of the state and I believe the Russian people would support it.


 I think he knows that would backfire. 
  Emperor or God of Gods would probably go over better.


----------



## Skysix

Some anti soldier 35  spin


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1535130749774479363


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR mil int official:  it's now a fight of the guns, and we need more ...








						We’re almost out of ammunition and relying on western arms, says Ukraine
					

Exclusive: Deputy head of military intelligence says it’s an artillery war now and ‘everything depends on what the west gives us’




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

McG said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1535130749774479363


Cholera, eh?  Standby for "See?  There ARE evil biolabs around here" in 3, 2, 1 ....








						Ukraine sounds alarm about possible cholera outbreak in Russian-occupied Mariupol
					

An adviser to the port city’s mayor said Tuesday that its drinking water had been contaminated by decomposing garbage and corpses after months under siege.




					www.nbcnews.com


----------



## daftandbarmy




----------



## MilEME09

Your move Russia 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1535181970828693505


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> Your move Russia
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1535181970828693505


Might as well take White Russia back as well, 2 for 1 deal.


----------



## MilEME09

On the same note, dear Moscow, you aren't a city


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1535318677008142339


----------



## Czech_pivo

Soldier35 said:


> The destruction of the Ukrainian UAV A1-SM "Fury" by the Russian air defense system 9K35 "Strela-10" was caught on video. The Strela-10 air defense system was put into service in 1976, after which it was repeatedly upgraded. The ammunition of the installation is 8 missiles, 4 on rails and 4 in the hull. The firing range of the air defense system is 5 km, the height of the target is 4 km. The advantages of the Strela-10 air defense system are its low cost, immunity to radio interference and invulnerability to anti-radar missiles. Disadvantages - the impossibility of firing at targets in bad weather conditions and sensitivity to optical interference. UAV A1-SM "Fury" of Ukraine is a drone designed for aerial reconnaissance day and night. The range of the UAV is up to 50 km, the maximum speed is 130 km / h, the time spent in the air is up to 3 hours, the height of use is a maximum of 2.5 km. The cost of the complex is 85 thousand dollars.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Russian armored train "Brave" appeared in Ukraine. There are no exact characteristics of the Russian armored train yet. Russian BMP-2 and other weapons are installed on the armored train
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Ukrainian small anti-submarine ship "Vinnitsa", of the Soviet project 1124P, corvette according to NATO classification, was sunk in the port of Ochakov. On the video from the drone, the tail number U206 is clearly visible. It is not completely clear why the ship sank, whether it was the blows of the Russian army or Ukraine itself flooded it. The medium landing ship of Ukraine "Yury Olefirenko", of the Soviet project 773, came under fire from the Russian military, you can see it in the video, whether it sank or not is still unknown.


Maybe you guys can make a deal with Little Kim of North Korea and have him supply you with a couple more armoured trains, I hear its his preferred method of travelling through glorious land of Worker's Paradise while waving at the freedom-loving cadres of adoring comrades tolling in the fields.


----------



## The Bread Guy

RangerRay said:


> I am actually surprised he has not declared himself Tsar. He has absolute control of the state and I believe the Russian people would support it.


Tsar in all but name, right?


----------



## GK .Dundas

Yup! 
By popular acclamation , how could he possibly refuse?


----------



## Blackadder1916

One of the pros of him naming himself Czar, there is already a precedent for putting the holder of that title against a wall for execution.


----------



## CBH99

FJAG said:


> It should but I'm not optimistic.
> 
> In Kandahar, the first few years very much showed how neglected the artillery had become and how much of a role it played on the battlefield. This resulted in a small bump in equipment acquisition for things which had not been in the departmental plan. The next several years were a kinder and gentler type of war where artillery was used sparingly and once again it took a back seat. It was in the "Afghanistan Peace Dividend" in 2011 that Canada's air defence capability was divested. Our requirement for deep strike rocket launchers has been around for almost a half a century unfulfilled and don't get me started on SP divestiture.
> 
> Canada and its army has a tremendous capacity for self delusion. As was just posted in another thread, "it's leadership by consensus and command by committee" that rules us. It simply isn't in our nature to commit a few billion dollars on new artillery equipment and ammunition war stocks and then hand it over primarily to the reserves (where most of it should be to save recurring PY expenses) in the event that at some time in the future we may really need to fight. It's much easier to focus on the day-to-day demands of a moribund system. One of the problems is that right now we're congratulating ourselves for having given the Ukraine fairly modern M777s. These do have a certain level of usefulness in a sluggish war such is going on now. It will be quite easy for senior non-gunner leaders to convince themselves that what we have is ample to form one 18 gun regiment to support one deployed brigade group if need be.
> 
> My guess is that we'll put everything in abeyance for a few years while captains and a few majors are tasked to study this conflict. They'll write nice reports that everyone will sagely nod their heads to ... and do nothing. All that I expect that will come out of this war for the Army is the already ongoing GBAD project and, hopefully, a suite of decent anti-armour weapon war stocks.


We should learn from what happened between the FSB, Putin & company, and the military when it comes to reports on capabilities not being taken very seriously from one or more of those parties.

The FSB was tasked with writing some reports to senior military leadership & decision makers, but told it was more for academic purposes than anything else.

And culturally, the report was supposed to essentially conclude that Russia had the weapons & equipment to successfully conduct ‘X Operation’ and also successfully deal with any consequences as a result of that operation, re humanitarian crisis, medical crisis, etc

So FSB writes the reports and sends them up, not knowing the senior leadership is planning on invading Ukraine.  The officers who write the reports do as they are told - be reasonably accurate, but conclude that Russia has the resources to succeed. It is, after all, an academic exercise more than anything…

Well, turns out those reports were taken quite seriously by senior planners, who planned and orchestrated the invasion of Ukraine.  Only to be surprised that what the reports said they were capable of, and what they actually _were_ capable of, didn’t quite line up…


This war is FULL of lessons to be soaked up by every country on Earth right now. 

The usefulness of inexpensive suicide/armed drones.  The importance of small drones in finding the enemy.  How important modern ATGM’s are, as well as modern AA systems.  Defense in depth, the importance of robust logistics, and a solid reminder that some enemies actually shoot back with equal firepower, etc


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1535393558525517825


----------



## The Bread Guy

Variation on the bio-war provocation theme from RUS state media ...


----------



## Good2Golf

The Bread Guy said:


> Variation on the bio-war provocation theme from RUS state media ...
> View attachment 71305


Starting to lose track of all the False-False-Flag attacks that Russia is guilty of accusing everyone else but themselves for the misery caused by their war.


----------



## KevinB

Good2Golf said:


> Starting to lose track of all the False-False-Flag attacks that Russia is guilty of accusing everyone else but themselves for the misery caused by their war.


At this point I’m really wishing we had jumped a B-54 into Moscow several years ago and claimed the explosion was a Russian accident.


----------



## The Bread Guy

The Bread Guy said:


> UKR mil int official:  it's now a fight of the guns, and we need more ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> We’re almost out of ammunition and relying on western arms, says Ukraine
> 
> 
> Exclusive: Deputy head of military intelligence says it’s an artillery war now and ‘everything depends on what the west gives us’
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com


... and RUS state media's take on the piece


----------



## The Bread Guy

Aaaaand ceasefire.ca/Rideau Institute pipes up ....








						A wiser NATO would choose peace negotiations over endless war
					

Today we explore in some depth the urgent need to broaden our public discussion of the Ukraine conflict beyond a singular focus on military measures to include genuine efforts toward a negotiated p…




					www.ceasefire.ca
				



To be fair, though, they're not the only ones talking about "maybe we should think about this a bit more" ...








						What are Canada’s options in Ukraine?
					

Canada needs to clarify the goals and limits of its response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.




					policyoptions.irpp.org
				











						Western Leaders Ought to Take Escalation Over Ukraine Seriously - War on the Rocks
					

While the United States and Europe have taken significant action to assist Ukraine and pressure Russia, there is increasing pressure to “do more.” With



					warontherocks.com
				











						Andrew Potter: After a hundred days of war, the West is losing interest in Ukraine
					

For a brief moment, Ukraine was beacon of freedom. Now, it is clear that for all our talk, no one in the West really thought they could beat Russia. Worse, it is clear that many never wanted them to.




					theline.substack.com
				











						Opinion | After 100 days of war in Ukraine, tough questions for foreign ministers
					

But there were candid post mortems and calls to action from Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly and her Lithuanian counterpart at Toronto Metropolitan University’s Democracy Forum, writes Martin Regg Cohn




					www.thestar.com


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1535341904359002117


----------



## Dana381

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1535341904359002117



Zelensky is going to want a word with him!


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1535341904359002117


Serbia? I thought they were with the Reds! Anyone's got something smart to say about that?


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Aaaaand ceasefire.ca/Rideau Institute pipes up ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A wiser NATO would choose peace negotiations over endless war
> 
> 
> Today we explore in some depth the urgent need to broaden our public discussion of the Ukraine conflict beyond a singular focus on military measures to include genuine efforts toward a negotiated p…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ceasefire.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> To be fair, though, they're not the only ones talking about "maybe we should think about this a bit more" ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What are Canada’s options in Ukraine?
> 
> 
> Canada needs to clarify the goals and limits of its response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> policyoptions.irpp.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Western Leaders Ought to Take Escalation Over Ukraine Seriously - War on the Rocks
> 
> 
> While the United States and Europe have taken significant action to assist Ukraine and pressure Russia, there is increasing pressure to “do more.” With
> 
> 
> 
> warontherocks.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Andrew Potter: After a hundred days of war, the West is losing interest in Ukraine
> 
> 
> For a brief moment, Ukraine was beacon of freedom. Now, it is clear that for all our talk, no one in the West really thought they could beat Russia. Worse, it is clear that many never wanted them to.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> theline.substack.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Opinion | After 100 days of war in Ukraine, tough questions for foreign ministers
> 
> 
> But there were candid post mortems and calls to action from Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly and her Lithuanian counterpart at Toronto Metropolitan University’s Democracy Forum, writes Martin Regg Cohn
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thestar.com


The defeatist appeasement folks make me physically ill.   
  Now is the time to push as much military hardware to Ukraine as they can take - and add 50% just because. 

We should use NATO navies to physically blockade Russian ports and interdict any vessels leaving and ground any aircraft leaving or trying to enter their space.  Russia and the rest of the world need to see it’s not okay to invade a democracy (authoritarian governments are fine to invade though — incentive for change and all that).


----------



## KevinB

TacticalTea said:


> Serbia? I thought they were with the Reds! Anyone's got something smart to say about that?


He didn’t pay the bribe.


----------



## JLB50

KevinB said:


> The defeatist appeasement folks make me physically ill.
> Now is the time to push as much military hardware to Ukraine as they can take - and add 50% just because.
> 
> We should use NATO navies to physically blockade Russian ports and interdict any vessels leaving and ground any aircraft leaving or trying to enter their space.  Russia and the rest of the world need to see it’s not okay to invade a democracy (authoritarian governments are fine to invade though — incentive for change and all that).


It boggles my mind how supposedly educated people can be so absolutely ignorant of history.  If they got their way, Ukraine would be under total Russian domination.  And then they would say the same thing about the Russians taking overi Latvia, then Lithuania, then Estonia and so on, and so on.  But, hey, at least it’s peace in our time.  (Sort of).  

It’s sad how people are beginning to tire of the news coming out of Ukraine.  Not that it’s going to happen, but NATO should have gone into Ukraine months ago and helped the Ukrainians kick the crap out of the Russians.  While I like some of the things  Biden has done domestically, he is an absolute idiot for telling Putin that he wasn’t willing to go to war.


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> The defeatist appeasement folks make me physically ill.


Likewise. Still torn between active service (to a country that stands by the sidelines twiddling its thumbs), and actually contributing.


----------



## Prairie canuck

KevinB said:


> The defeatist appeasement folks make me physically ill.
> Now is the time to push as much military hardware to Ukraine as they can take - and add 50% just because.
> 
> We should use NATO navies to physically blockade Russian ports and interdict any vessels leaving and ground any aircraft leaving or trying to enter their space.  Russia and the rest of the world need to see it’s not okay to invade a democracy (authoritarian governments are fine to invade though — incentive for change and all that).


Some Baltic State or Poland need to prod Russia into taking a shot at them.... NATO needs to get off its ass and clear the skies of Ukraine of anything Russian, send the growlers to take care of any AA,  and a few B52s dropping full loads of 500 pounders over the Russian side of the Donbas wouldn't hurt either.
There, I feel better now....  
as you were..


----------



## FJAG

KevinB said:


> The defeatist appeasement folks make me physically ill.


That's because they've probably stopped teaching this is school.







It boggles my mind that people do not see, or refuse to see, the parallels.



JLB50 said:


> While I like some of the things Biden has done domestically, he is an absolute idiot for telling Putin that he wasn’t willing to go to war.


Not to get into a tussle here, but I didn't see Trump telling Putin to get his ass out of Ukraine. In fact ...   But then again as Canadians maybe we just don't have enough dogs in the hunt to get yippy ourselves.

🍻


----------



## Prairie canuck

FJAG said:


> That's because they've probably stopped teaching this is school.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It boggles my mind that people do not see, or refuse to see, the parallels.
> 
> 
> Not to get into a tussle here, but I didn't see Trump telling Putin to get his ass out of Ukraine. In fact ...   But then again as Canadians maybe we just don't have enough dogs in the hunt to get yippy ourselves.
> 
> 🍻


Even with the limited resources Canada has it could take some initiative regardless what NATO says. I'm sure Latvia would welcome Canada quadrupling its commitment to that country and add 10 or so Leopards to the mix and a dozen F188s . A little more threat to Putin's flanks would  change the dialogue between NATO members and focus some thoughts. You know, convening through force increase kinda thing.


----------



## CBH99

KevinB said:


> At this point I’m really wishing we had jumped a B-54 into Moscow several years ago and claimed the explosion was a Russian accident.


That’s so sinister, and yet _frighteningly so believable_ it probably would’ve worked.


----------



## CBH99

Prairie canuck said:


> Some Baltic State or Poland need to prod Russia into taking a shot at them.... NATO needs to get off its ass and clear the skies of Ukraine of anything Russian, send the growlers to take care of any AA,  and a few B52s dropping full loads of 500 pounders over the Russian side of the Donbas wouldn't hurt either.
> There, I feel better now....
> as you were..


And end the war next week??  

But I thought the plan was to keep Russia engaged and bogged down in Ukraine 2.0, similar to the way we’ve done with Ukraine 1.0?


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> He didn’t pay the bribe.


... or enough of one, if they found cash & diamonds on him ...


----------



## McG

When you start to run out of precision long range missiles for ground targets, just shoot ill-suited anti-ship or anti-air missiles at them.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1535495311044579328


----------



## The Bread Guy

Nice try ...


> The Russian Embassy in Ottawa asked the city to fly the Russian flag and illuminate a wing of City Hall in red, white and blue to mark Russia Day on Sunday, but the city refused.
> 
> According to a statement from Arnold McLean, the city's chief of protocol, his office received the request from the Embassy of the Russian Federation on Feb. 23, the day before Russian troops invaded Ukraine.
> 
> The embassy asked the city to "raise their flag, and to illuminate the Heritage Building in recognition of Russia Day on June 12, 2022," according to the statement.
> 
> (...)
> 
> "[It's] outrageous that they would even consider asking for it, and I told them under no circumstances will we raise your flag until you're out of Ukraine, and we have the Ukrainian flag that is still flying and will remain flying on our plaza until the Russians leave the country," (Ottawa Mayor Jim) Watson said Friday ...


----------



## Good2Golf

The Bread Guy said:


> Nice try ...


Instead…here’s an idea… 😆


----------



## MilEME09

Germany plans to block Spain from giving the UA tanks.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1535614991780483074


----------



## JLB50

FJAG said:


> That's because they've probably stopped teaching this is school.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It boggles my mind that people do not see, or refuse to see, the parallels.
> 
> 
> Not to get into a tussle here, but I didn't see Trump telling Putin to get his ass out of Ukraine. In fact ...   But then again as Canadians maybe we just don't have enough dogs in the hunt to get yippy ourselves.
> 
> 🍻


I would have been surprised if Trump had told Putin to stay out of Ukraine.  It would have been like the puppet telling the putter master what to do.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

The Bread Guy said:


> Nice try ...


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> Germany plans to block Spain from giving the UA tanks.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1535614991780483074


Outrageous. Presumably they would do the same if we tried? Starting to understand Kevin's point here. Screw European procurement.


----------



## MilEME09

TacticalTea said:


> Outrageous. Presumably they would do the same if we tried? Starting to understand Kevin's point here. Screw European procurement.


Problem I'd Scholz and his party, almost every other party and over 60% of Germans polled say give Ukraine heavy weapons. It is him and his government refusing to sign off. They need to go, and the coalition government needs to kick him to the curb


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> In the video, you can see that one Ukrainian soldier surrenders and asks to stop shooting. As a result of the battle with the Russian special forces, ninety Ukrainian soldiers from the company of the 63rd brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were killed


@Soldier35, I suppose Russia thinks shooting prisoners is okay.  

This certainly reinforces why Russia has no moral authority to tell any nation what to do…it is simply an insecure nation seeking to bully other nations with its delusional invasions.


----------



## GR66

Soldier35 said:


> A fragment of the battle of Russian special forces in Ukraine against a company of the 63rd brigade of the armed forces of Ukraine in the Nikolaev-Kherson direction has been published. In the video, you can see that one Ukrainian soldier surrenders and asks to stop shooting. As a result of the battle with the Russian special forces, ninety Ukrainian soldiers from the company of the 63rd brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were killed, some of the results of the battle are shown at the end of the video.


Curious as to when this "great victory" took place.  All the trees in the picture are strangely devoid of any leaves.  Current pictures of Ukraine show the trees in full leaf...just like here in Canada.  I guess there are no victories in recent months to show?


----------



## Skysix

Russian speaking purchasers of hard to sell Piper Aztec then do a low level penetration flight of many NATO former Warsaw Pact nations.

Could it have been an Elint  air defense survey? Pretty sure it got lit up by everybodys radars, civilian and military ..









						The War Zone
					

A strong offense for the world of defense.




					www.thedrive.com


----------



## FJAG

MilEME09 said:


> Germany plans to block Spain from giving the UA tanks.


The article isn't quite that strong. It's more along the line that there has been discussion in Spain about passing 40 (and perhaps only 10) older "dilapidated" Leo 2s on to Ukraine and the discussions were leaked in the press. Germany then "warned the Spaniards in telephone calls that this step would be a departure from the (albeit completely informal and unofficial) decision taken by all Western allies not to supply Kyiv with tanks."

All that to say that the article is pretty sketchy and based on second-hand information and I wouldn't use it as a definitive depiction of German policy or the facts in this situation. 

The one thing I have been garnering from this and many other articles is that Germany does seem to have fairly strong contractual riders on equipment it manufactures and exports as to third party dispositions. This isn't unusual as so does the US. What with Germany's very restrictive post-WW2 constitution. It includes this limitation respecting arms:



> "Article 26 (2) Weapons designed for warfare may be manufactured, transported or marketed only with the permission of the Federal Government. Details shall be regulated by a federal law."



This is tied to basic principles on international humanitarianism. Germany takes a much more restrictive view than the UK and France on the end use of weapons manufactured by it. It more stringently interprets "the EU Common Position adopted in 2008, which states that there should be no arms exports if there is a 'clear risk' that such weapons will be used to commit 'serious violations of international humanitarian law.'" One should never underestimate the effect of "war guilt" which continues to not only pervade the German Left (of which there are many) but also the average German person in the street. 

Russia on the other hand has no such "guilt" and continues to revel in its faux pretense to be a victim regardless of the millions that have died as a result of what are more and more recognized universally as clear acts of imperialism. Once those acts were disguised as part of a world movement of a communist philosophy. That thin veneer has dropped away decades ago.

As a side note, the command of the German armed forces is normally vested in neither the President nor the Chancellor, but the Minister of Defence (article 65a) but passes to the Chancellor only when there is a "state of defence" declared (Part Xa - as an example if Germany is attacked or threatened with attack) (article 115b)

🍻


----------



## Skysix

1000 Ukrainian soldiers a day. Every day. Taken out of the fight by arty. 20% fatally. 

While NATO politicians dither (hopefully not their militaries, who must by now realise every Ukrainian casualty is one they will not have to send letters home for)

Shamefull.


----------



## Skysix

If NATO does not deliver several tens of thousands of 155 and several tens of 177 to ARRIVE at the front during the coming week, this article may be moot.

Where are all the "Air America" or activated reserve fleet cargo jets that could at least ship ammo? And bring out gunners for conversion training?

MLRS would be better. And not in single digits. A whole train load of them along with recently 'retired' or contractor trainers for OJT. So what if their first few volleys are not up to TOT or CEP standards. Still metal on meat.









						The New Russian Offensive Is Intended to Project Power It Cannot Sustain
					

The Russian offensive is a final push by Putin before he exhausts his military capability—Ukraine can defeat them if it keeps up its morale




					time.com


----------



## MilEME09

Skysix said:


> If NATO does not deliver several tens of thousands of 155 and several tens of 177 to ARRIVE at the front during the coming week, this article may be moot.
> 
> Where are all the "Air America" or activated reserve fleet cargo jets that could at least ship ammo? And bring out gunners for conversion training?
> 
> MLRS would be better. And not in single digits. A whole train load of them along with recently 'retired' or contractor trainers for OJT. So what if their first few volleys are not up to TOT or CEP standards. Still metal on meat.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Institute for the Study of War
> 
> 
> New op-ed in TIME Magazine by Frederick W. Kagan The fight for Severodonetsk is a Russian information operation in the form of a battle. One of its main purposes for Moscow is to create the impression that Russia has regained its strength and will now
> 
> 
> 
> 
> understandingwar.org


Imo lend lease should allow a few hundred M1's and M270s from the Serria army depot to be reactivated and sent to Ukraine. Take a few weeks but in that time, you train crews in Germany or Poland.


----------



## Skysix

MilEME09 said:


> Imo lend lease should allow a few hundred M1's and M270s from the Serria army depot to be reactivated and sent to Ukraine. Take a few weeks but in that time, you train crews in Germany or Poland.


I flew near/over that depot often. ASSUMING our storage conditions are more mission ready than Russia's, we should be able to load a train in a day (say a just under hundred pieces) and drive it to the East coast in another 2.

Another day to unload, a day to load on a ship and 10 from, say, Wilmington NC to Gdynia Poland, 2 more days to transload onto a train to Druzhkivka or some other railhead near the front and 2 days to get there, then 2 more to unload and get into position and use. Repaint  from 686 tan CARC to a more appropriate color as needed en-route

3 weeks.

And that is assuming any precombat maintenance is performed at sea with parts and mechanics loaded at the same time. As can a lot of the needed training be done if the trainees are flown to Wilmington at the same time Herlong is loading the gear. Even practice firing from the deck if it is a RO/RO that also has space for deck cargo


Meanwhile:
4,200 Ukrainian soldiers killed.
17,000 injured and out of combat.
Time is lives.

How many non-reserve soldiers does Canada have these days.....


Of course, certain people need to be able to shed their peacetime mindset and inhibitions and start working at the edges of the envelope or better yet outside the box and acting as if lives were immediately at stake.

Which they are. Just not ours.

Yet.


----------



## GR66

Or since the Ukrainians are already training on M777's we could give them all of ours and lease three batteries of M109's from the US (one for each Regiment to train on) pending a purchase decision on our replacement project.


----------



## Skysix

GR66 said:


> Or since the Ukrainians are already training on M777's we could give them all of ours and lease three batteries of M109's from the US (one for each Regiment to train on) pending a purchase decision on our replacement project.


Might as well buy, that decision will take 2 election cycles...


----------



## Skysix

FJAG said:


> The article isn't quite that strong. It's more along the line that there has been discussion in Spain about passing 40 (and perhaps only 10) older "dilapidated" Leo 2s on to Ukraine and the discussions were leaked in the press. Germany then "warned the Spaniards in telephone calls that this step would be a departure from the (albeit completely informal and unofficial) decision taken by all Western allies not to supply Kyiv with tanks."
> 
> All that to say that the article is pretty sketchy and based on second-hand information and I wouldn't use it as a definitive depiction of German policy or the facts in this situation.
> 
> The one thing I have been garnering from this and many other articles is that Germany does seem to have fairly strong contractual riders on equipment it manufactures and exports as to third party dispositions. This isn't unusual as so does the US. What with Germany's very restrictive post-WW2 constitution. It includes this limitation respecting arms:
> 
> 
> 
> This is tied to basic principles on international humanitarianism. Germany takes a much more restrictive view than the UK and France on the end use of weapons manufactured by it. It more stringently interprets "the EU Common Position adopted in 2008, which states that there should be no arms exports if there is a 'clear risk' that such weapons will be used to commit 'serious violations of international humanitarian law.'" One should never underestimate the effect of "war guilt" which continues to not only pervade the German Left (of which there are many) but also the average German person in the street.
> 
> Russia on the other hand has no such "guilt" and continues to revel in its faux pretense to be a victim regardless of the millions that have died as a result of what are more and more recognized universally as clear acts of imperialism. Once those acts were disguised as part of a world movement of a communist philosophy. That thin veneer has dropped away decades ago.
> 
> As a side note, the command of the German armed forces is normally vested in neither the President nor the Chancellor, but the Minister of Defence (article 65a) but passes to the Chancellor only when there is a "state of defence" declared (Part Xa - as an example if Germany is attacked or threatened with attack) (article 115b)
> 
> 🍻


Its not just Germany unfortunately.








						Vetoing Victory - Israel Is Blocking (Military) Aid To Ukraine
					






					www.oryxspioenkop.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Of France and Russia and Anglo-Saxons.









						Macron’s shameful kowtowing to Russia is hardly a bolt from the blue
					

Since the 19th century, French diplomacy has always played a long game, with national interest foremost




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				







> Macron’s shameful kowtowing to Russia is hardly a bolt from the blue​Since the 19th century, French diplomacy has always played a long game, with national interest foremost
> 
> ROBERT TOMBS11 June 2022 • 5:00pm
> 
> To many critics, it was incongruous, humiliating, even unethical, that the leader of a great Western democracy should make persistent efforts to woo Europe’s most aggressive autocratic state. I might be referring to President Emmanuel Macron. Or to President Charles de Gaulle. Or indeed to President Sadi Carnot (1887-94).
> 
> All political acts have a mixture of motives, and Macron’s approaches to Putin have been ascribed to vanity, insistence that the EU must play a leading role, domestic politics and fear of nuclear escalation. No doubt all these are present. But politicians also follow a script, often written long before. They make what one historian called ‘unspoken assumptions’ – ideas about the world that are taken for granted in their political culture.
> While every Western politician must share Macron’s worries about escalation and economic damage, his unique persistence in trying to get through to Putin follows a characteristically French script, whose first drafts were written in the late 19th century. This script has deeply affected European history. It might do so again. It is worth trying to understand it.
> 
> It starts with France’s traumatic defeat by Prussia in 1870-71, which created the Second German Reich. France had lost wars before, but always to a coalition of Great Powers, never before to a single one. Its armies had been routed, its capital besieged and starved into surrender.
> The effect on France was profound. Defeat inspired a huge effort of national revival, which included the adoption of republican democracy, a cult of militarism (including military drills for children), aggressive imperialism, the introduction of English-style games in schools to inculcate ‘a taste for struggle’, attacks on ‘effeminate’ Catholicism, encouragement to have more children (unsuccessful, but which still shapes France’s welfare policies) and an angry nationalism which some have seen as the origin of fascism.
> 
> But none of this could change the fact that the new Germany was outpacing France in industrial strength and birth rates. This is where Russia came in. What had Europe’s greatest democracy and its most powerful autocracy in common? Only one thing, but the most important: fear of Germany. They signed a military alliance, which formed the basis of their joint security. In 1896, Tsar Nicholas II visited France and was met by cheering crowds, including many who had hitherto regarded Russia as an enemy and a threat. France, a wealthy country, invested a vast proportion of its savings in developing Russia, especially railways to carry Russia’s armies rapidly west. This helped to create in Germany a fear of ‘encirclement’.
> 
> Its response was the Schlieffen Plan, to win a quick victory by invading France through Belgium while Russia was unprepared. The Franco-Russian alliance responded by speeding up their military mobilisation plans to forestall Germany. Then in July 1914, the catastrophe happened – the Schlieffen Plan sparked a global conflict.
> 
> France’s troops, thrown against the German frontier to help Russia, suffered their heaviest casualties of the whole war. The ‘Russian steamroller’ rolled ponderously west, but was quickly stopped. Four years of attrition brought mass slaughter, starvation, revolutions, civil wars, and a century of horrors.
> 
> But a Franco-Russian relationship revived. Still fearing Germany, and unable to rely on Britain or America, France recognised the USSR in 1924, and French republicans and Bolshevik revolutionaries signed a nonaggression pact as early as 1931. Moscow was at first not unhappy when Hitler came to power in 1933, as Marxist theory laid down that he would be swiftly overthrown by a proletarian revolution.
> 
> When this did not happen, Moscow and Paris again sought mutual assistance. A pact was signed in 1935, and both countries gave aid to the Popular Front government in Spain.
> 
> The French tried to enlist the Soviet Union against Hitler. Chamberlain and Halifax dragged their feet, unwilling to trust Stalin. But the French were perhaps right that Soviet self-interest could have led to a common stand that would have stopped Hitler and probably led to his overthrow. The Second World War, at least in the form it took, might have been prevented or delayed. Instead, rebuffed, the Soviets changed sides, signed a pact with Hitler, and war came.
> 
> The Second World War still, inevitably, marks the whole of the West and its collective memory, but in different ways. Although Britain supported French resistance throughout, and France was liberated principally by America and Britain, subsequent memory was shaped by Charles de Gaulle, France’s master national script-writer.
> 
> De Gaulle resented his treatment by ‘les Anglo-Saxons’ – a concept he introduced into the modern political vocabulary – and in 1942 considered moving his headquarters to Moscow. In 1944, he signed an alliance with the USSR. After he left power, the strongly Atlanticist Fourth Republic was a co-founder of Nato.
> 
> But when de Gaulle returned in 1958 and created the presidential Fifth Republic, his resentment of the Anglo-Saxons had not abated. He again cultivated the Russians, culminating in 1966 with a state visit to Moscow, France’s withdrawal from Nato’s military command structure, and the departure of over 60,000 American troops from French soil.
> 
> Lurking in the background was still Germany, divided and occupied, but reviving and potentially powerful. De Gaulle’s response – imitated by all his successors – was to make extravagant gestures of reconciliation and friendship. This became France’s new ‘special relationship’, and the core of its unflagging ambition to create an independent European Great Power.
> 
> But the relationship with Germany, despite efforts on both sides, has never been really warm. France’s constant attempt to wrap Germany in a close embrace through EU integration is not devoid of suspicion and worry. So maintaining relations with Soviet Russia and then the Russian Federation were always part of the picture. During the breakup of Yugoslavia, the French, including the army, tended to sympathise with the Serbs, Russia’s protégés.
> 
> So how does this influence Macron’s present-day approaches to Putin? At least since de Gaulle—and indeed since Carnot—France’s rulers have taken a realistic view of geopolitics. For de Gaulle, nations were historic entities, whatever their political regimes or the foibles of their temporary rulers. In his eyes, and those of his successors, Russia is always Russia, indispensable to the security of Europe, and hence of France. The Americans cannot be trusted and are in any case likely to abandon Europe. The British, as de Gaulle recorded, will always choose ‘the open sea’ over the Continent – a view confirmed by Brexit.
> 
> Germany is big and unmanageable. Russia, Macron has said, must be made part of a European security structure: it cannot be allowed to become once again a permanent enemy and an ally of China. Moreover, France, like the US and Britain, wants to turn more of its attention to the rising Asia-Pacific. Thanks to its hard-headed retention of scattered fragments of empire (tactfully renamed ‘overseas departments’ or ‘overseas territories’ and thus in some cases inside the EU), France is the legal proprietor of 11 million square kilometres of ocean, rich in resources – twice as much as Britain owns. Macron has declared that while 20th century power struggles were fought on the Continent, the key to the 21st century will be the sea.
> 
> So there is far more than grandstanding in Macron’s long and so far fruitless conversations with Putin, which the French public approve of. Marine Le Pen on the Right and Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the Left are even more pro-Russian.
> 
> The ‘unspoken assumptions’ are that Russia must somehow be kept within the European balance of power, with France, as in the past, its interlocutor and ideally its guide. So Macron must find out the minimum that would satisfy Putin, and try to deliver an acceptable compromise to end a devastating war. Otherwise, the ‘Anglo-Saxons’ – and the despised Boris Johnson – will be ready to fight to the last Ukrainian, while the Germans will roll over for the sake of gas and oil.
> 
> Where would that leave France’s EU ambitions, you might ask? But if Russia can be induced to accept a settlement – this was the aim of the Minsk accords – Macron can continue his unflagging labours to make ‘sovereign Europe’ into a world power, with France as its leading member and global representative.
> 
> French diplomacy plays a long game, with national interest foremost. That, in broad terms, is why France – unlike Britain or America – does not want Russia humiliated.


----------



## KevinB

Lend Lease items should be arriving next week. 

@FJAG Germany illegally exports small arms by the thousands as Machine Parts to Africa, as welll as the Chemical weapons in Sadam’s Iraq came from Germany. 

  The German government are some of the most hypocritical sleaze on the planet, they make JT look like a choirboy


----------



## The Bread Guy

If completely true (RUS state media being what it is), a reminder to USSR 2.0 that the WW2 narrative reach backs can work both ways


----------



## The Bread Guy

Another reason why people don't trust media, even if most are trying their best.  Dear headline writer, did you even read the first paragraph of the story?


----------



## Remius

Sanctions are hitting hard enough to hurt Russia, if not stop it
					

Analysis: the assault in Ukraine continues, but it seems clear that real damage is being done to Putin’s economy• Russia-Ukraine war: latest updates




					www.theguardian.com
				




Interesting piece on sanctions.


----------



## CBH99

The Bread Guy said:


> Another reason why people don't trust media, even if most are trying their best.  Dear headline writer, did you even read the first paragraph of the story?
> View attachment 71318


Geezus!

Next time just hire a kid in high school to write the article for you, for an extra credit…

I’m not sure if it’s the poor sentence structure, spelling errors, or ‘supporting the Russian invasion’ while also ‘supporting Ukraine in the fight it began because of invasion’ … huh?  🤦🏼‍


----------



## CBH99

KevinB said:


> Lend Lease items should be arriving next week.
> 
> @FJAG Germany illegally exports small arms by the thousands as Machine Parts to Africa, as welll as the Chemical weapons in Sadam’s Iraq came from Germany.
> 
> The German government are some of the most hypocritical sleaze on the planet, they make JT look like a choirboy


Not to derail anything, but this just made me think of Rwanda.  The Belgians had troops deployed under the UN to prevent ‘it’ from happening, while their government openly sold weapons to the various factions involved.  

To their credit, I don’t recall them trying to hide anything.  Business is business.


----------



## CBH99

MilEME09 said:


> Germany plans to block Spain from giving the UA tanks.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1535614991780483074


So Germany sending SPG’s is okay, but Spain sending Leopard 2A4 tanks isn’t?

How much legal weight does an ‘alleged informal decision’ have, anyway?


----------



## CBH99

TacticalTea said:


> Outrageous. Presumably they would do the same if we tried? Starting to understand Kevin's point here. Screw European procurement.


Question…

I know under ITAR, even friendly nations operating the same equipment in peacetime have to jump through some hoops when transferring or selling equipment.  (Australia selling us 25 used F-18’s, for example)


What authority does Germany have to block the sale or transfer of these tanks?

I can understand if the tanks have sensitive kit that they don’t want reverse engineered…but they don’t.  

If Spain bought these tanks & owns them, is it not Spain’s decision what they do with them?


----------



## MilEME09

CBH99 said:


> If Spain bought these tanks & owns them, is it not Spain’s decision what they do with them?


I mean they could say screw the rules and do it anyway


----------



## McG

Most countries have clauses that restrict resale when arms are sold. Nobody wants to see arms from their country on the news for being used in human rights violations or terrorism. Potential some of this is also tied to meeting obligations under international agreements to limit arms trafficking.


----------



## The Bread Guy

CBH99 said:


> Geezus!
> 
> Next time just hire a kid in high school to write the article for you, for an extra credit…
> 
> I’m not sure if it’s the poor sentence structure, spelling errors, or ‘supporting the Russian invasion’ while also ‘supporting Ukraine in the fight it began because of invasion’ … huh?  🤦🏼‍


The ONLY slack I'll cut the outlet is that weekend shifts, especially in the spring/summer as j-schools graduate, tend to be populated by folks still learning the craft.  I know when I wore that hat, I made mistakes, too (learned the difference between a pesticide and a herbicide, for example, thanks to a caller straightening me out), but still ...  Maybe I'm just getting cranky(er?) in my advancing years


----------



## FJAG

CBH99 said:


> So Germany sending SPG’s is okay, but Spain sending Leopard 2A4 tanks isn’t?
> 
> How much legal weight does an ‘alleged informal decision’ have, anyway?


Assuming the article accurately represents the facts 


CBH99 said:


> Question…
> 
> I know under ITAR, even friendly nations operating the same equipment in peacetime have to jump through some hoops when transferring or selling equipment.  (Australia selling us 25 used F-18’s, for example)
> 
> 
> What authority does Germany have to block the sale or transfer of these tanks?
> 
> I can understand if the tanks have sensitive kit that they don’t want reverse engineered…but they don’t.
> 
> If Spain bought these tanks & owns them, is it not Spain’s decision what they do with them?


The contract of sale can contain any restrictions that the parties agree to. It's a bit more complex than buying a car from Mercedes. As an example Article 2 (Conditions - General Purchaser Agreement) of the US Government's Letter of Offer and Acceptance Standard Terms and Conditions for Foreign Military Sales includes several restrictions as to the transfer of the equipment or intellectual property associated with it.

This is not unusual. Quite the contrary. Nations selling military equipment generally impose restrictions under the sale contract.

🍻


----------



## KevinB

FJAG said:


> Assuming the article accurately represents the facts
> 
> The contract of sale can contain any restrictions that the parties agree to. It's a bit more complex than buying a car from Mercedes. As an example Article 2 (Conditions - General Purchaser Agreement) of the US Government's Letter of Offer and Acceptance Standard Terms and Conditions for Foreign Military Sales includes several restrictions as to the transfer of the equipment or intellectual property associated with it.
> 
> This is not unusual. Quite the contrary. Nations selling military equipment generally impose restrictions under the sale contract.
> 
> 🍻


No unusual, other than blocking friendly nations from giving equipment to a NATO partner nation…
  Germany is just cock blocking because they are two timing fucks.  They want to straddle the fence as best they can in case it gets cold and they want cheaper Russian gas again…


----------



## MilEME09

Bad day in 3....2....1


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1535578769443921920


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> Bad day in 3....2....1
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1535578769443921920


Ukrainian RQ:  "You don't need a new hoodie - a bit of gun tape'll take care of that."


----------



## The Bread Guy

Still hitting the bullseye ....

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1535939984464699392


----------



## Skysix

14.5 or 20mm?


----------



## MilEME09

Good thread about the fake Canadian Ukrainian volunteer being traced to Cornwall Ontario 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1536005486415384578


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> Good thread about the fake Canadian Ukrainian volunteer being traced to Cornwall Ontario
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1536005486415384578


Gotta admit I shared one of his posts, but I was more interested by the potential corroboration of war crimes than the spy thriller fan fic...

An option that remains possible is that he is relaying stories from folks in Ukraine who do not have the time and opportunity to run a social media account? But if so he should've been explicit about that, so I'm more inclined to believe he's just echoing and reframing whatever he finds on telegram.


----------



## The Bread Guy

TacticalTea said:


> Gotta admit I shared one of his posts, but I was more interested by the potential corroboration of war crimes than the spy thriller fan fic...


Also guilty as charged there.


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Also guilty as charged there.


You aren’t trying to claim you are in Ukraine…


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> You aren’t trying to claim you are in Ukraine…


Too fat & dumb to be of any use, so nobody'd believe me if I claimed it


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1536216230838816773


----------



## The Bread Guy

Occupation hijinks in Mariupol according to UKR mil int & media 

_*“In the temporarily occupied Mariupol, the racists could not recruit a sufficient number of employees with a salary of 10 thousand rubles. month. As a result, the enemy reduced the amount of so-called “humanitarian aid”, which provided a minimum amount of food for survival. Currently, the occupation administration is inviting people to volunteer. It is announced that their main task will be to clean up the rubble on the streets and bury the bodies in mass graves. “Access to food” is offered as a reward …” (UKR mil int, Google English from Ukrainian)*_ - original statement in Ukrainian
_*“Russians invaders, collaborators selling humanitarian aid in Mariupol” (UKR state media)*_
_*” Rashists in Mariupol from July 1 will issue “humanitarian” only to incapable (disabled) persons, – Andriushchenko” (UKR media)*_


----------



## daftandbarmy

Just in case we need reminding about how vulnerable stupid Europe is...


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> Just in case we need reminding about how vulnerable stupid Europe is...
> 
> 
> View attachment 71354



Finland imports as much of its gas from Russia as Germany, and it shares a border with Russia - and yet it is behaving very differently than Germany.

Latvia and Czechia import 100% of their gas from Russia, compared to the 95% that Hungary imports, and Latvia shares a border with Russia - and yet they are behaving very differently than Hungary.

The Westerners have got little or no skin in the game.


----------



## Kirkhill

Meanwhile - 

Ukraine will request 1,000 howitzers, 500 tanks, 200-300 multiple rocket launchers, 2,000 armored vehicles, and 1,000 drones from NATO.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vb9fh2

Starting to get a sense of what the bill is going to look like and also, from a Canadian perspective, what a "real" army might look like.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> Meanwhile -
> 
> Ukraine will request 1,000 howitzers, 500 tanks, 200-300 multiple rocket launchers, 2,000 armored vehicles, and 1,000 drones from NATO.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vb9fh2
> 
> Starting to get a sense of what the bill is going to look like and also, from a Canadian perspective, what a "real" army might look like.



Navies and Air Forces be like


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> Navies and Air Forces be like



Is GBAD Army or Air Force?  Either way - it wasn't on the list.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1536047831668097027


----------



## KevinB

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/06/09/biden-administration-defeat-russia-contain-china-ukraine-war/
		



Opinion by Fareed Zakaria
Fareed Zakaria writes a foreign affairs column for The Post. He is also the host of CNN’s Fareed Zakaria GPS and a contributing editor for the Atlantic.  

“We are now living in a totally new era,” said the 99-year-old Henry Kissinger, commenting on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In an op-ed last week, President Biden vividly outlined the stakes. “If Russia does not pay a heavy price for its actions,” he wrote, “it will send a message to other would-be aggressors that they too can seize territory and subjugate other countries. It will put the survival of other peaceful democracies at risk. And it could mark the end of the rules-based international order and open the door to aggression elsewhere, with catastrophic consequences the world over.”

In times like these, it seemed appropriate that Secretary of State Antony Blinken would deliver a major policy address, which he did late last month. Except that he chose to give the speech … on China. The talk itself contained nothing new; it was slightly more nuanced than the usual chest-thumping that passes for a China strategy these days. The real surprise was that, in the middle of the first major land war in Europe since 1945, with monumental consequences, Blinken chose not to lay out the strategy for victory but instead changed the subject. Washington’s foreign policy establishment is so wrapped up in its pre-crisis thinking that it cannot really digest the fact that the ground has shifted seismically under its feet.

Blinken declared that despite its aggression in Ukraine, Russia does not pose the greatest threat to the rules-based international order, instead giving that place to China. As Zachary Karabell suggests, this requires a willful blindness to decades of Russian aggression. Russia has invaded Georgia and Ukraine and effectively annexed parts of those countries. It brutally unleashed its air power in Syria, killing thousands of civilians. In responding to Chechnya’s desire for independence, it flattened large parts of the Russian republic, including its capital, with total civilians killed in that conflict estimated to be in the tens of thousands. Vladimir Putin has sent assassination squads to Western countries to kill his enemies, has used money and cyberattacks to disrupt Western democracies, and, most recently, has threatened the use of nuclear weapons. Does any other country even come close?

Ironically, one of the people who attended Blinken’s speech was Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), who during his presidential campaign in 2012 warned that Russia posed the single largest threat to the United States. Those, including myself, who dismissed his prognosis were wrong, because we looked only at Russia’s strength, which was not impressive. But Romney clearly understood that power in the international realm is measured by a mixture of capabilities and intentions. And though Russia is not a rising giant, it is determined to challenge and divide America and Europe and tear up the rules-based international system. Putin’s Russia is the world’s great spoiler.
This phenomenon of a declining power becoming the greatest danger to global peace is not unprecedented. In 1914, the country that triggered World War I was Austria-Hungary, an empire in broad decline, and yet one determined to use its military to show the world it still mattered and to teach a harsh lesson to Serbia, which it regarded as a minor, vassal state. Sound familiar?
America’s dominant priority must be to ensure that Russia does not prevail in its aggression against Ukraine. And right now, trends are moving in the wrong direction. Russian forces are consolidating their gains in eastern Ukraine. Sky-high oil prices have ensured that money continues to flow into Putin’s coffers. Europeans are beginning to talk about off-ramps. Moscow is offering developing nations a deal: Get the West to call off sanctions, it tells them, and it will help export all the grain from Ukraine and Russia and avert famine in many parts of the world. Ukraine’s leaders say it still does not have the weapons and training it needs to fight back effectively.

The best China strategy right now is to defeat Russia. Xi Jinping made a risky wager in backing Russia strongly on the eve of the invasion. If Russia comes out of this conflict a weak, marginalized country, that will be a serious blow to Xi, who is personally associated with the alliance with Putin. If, on the other hand, Putin survives and somehow manages to stage a comeback, Xi and China will learn an ominous lesson: that the West cannot uphold its rules-based system against a sustained assault.
Most of the people in top positions in the Biden administration were senior officials in the Obama administration in 2014, when Russia launched its first invasion of Ukraine, annexed Crimea and intervened in eastern Ukraine. They were not able to reverse Moscow’s aggression or even make Putin pay much of a price for it. Perhaps at the time, they saw the greatest threat to global order as the Islamic State, or they were focused on the “pivot” to Asia, or they didn’t prioritize Ukraine enough. Now they have a second chance, but it is likely to be the last.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/06/09/biden-administration-defeat-russia-contain-china-ukraine-war/
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Opinion by Fareed Zakaria
> Fareed Zakaria writes a foreign affairs column for The Post. He is also the host of CNN’s Fareed Zakaria GPS and a contributing editor for the Atlantic.
> 
> “We are now living in a totally new era,” said the 99-year-old Henry Kissinger, commenting on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In an op-ed last week, President Biden vividly outlined the stakes. “If Russia does not pay a heavy price for its actions,” he wrote, “it will send a message to other would-be aggressors that they too can seize territory and subjugate other countries. It will put the survival of other peaceful democracies at risk. And it could mark the end of the rules-based international order and open the door to aggression elsewhere, with catastrophic consequences the world over.”
> 
> In times like these, it seemed appropriate that Secretary of State Antony Blinken would deliver a major policy address, which he did late last month. Except that he chose to give the speech … on China. The talk itself contained nothing new; it was slightly more nuanced than the usual chest-thumping that passes for a China strategy these days. The real surprise was that, in the middle of the first major land war in Europe since 1945, with monumental consequences, Blinken chose not to lay out the strategy for victory but instead changed the subject. Washington’s foreign policy establishment is so wrapped up in its pre-crisis thinking that it cannot really digest the fact that the ground has shifted seismically under its feet.
> 
> Blinken declared that despite its aggression in Ukraine, Russia does not pose the greatest threat to the rules-based international order, instead giving that place to China. As Zachary Karabell suggests, this requires a willful blindness to decades of Russian aggression. Russia has invaded Georgia and Ukraine and effectively annexed parts of those countries. It brutally unleashed its air power in Syria, killing thousands of civilians. In responding to Chechnya’s desire for independence, it flattened large parts of the Russian republic, including its capital, with total civilians killed in that conflict estimated to be in the tens of thousands. Vladimir Putin has sent assassination squads to Western countries to kill his enemies, has used money and cyberattacks to disrupt Western democracies, and, most recently, has threatened the use of nuclear weapons. Does any other country even come close?
> 
> Ironically, one of the people who attended Blinken’s speech was Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), who during his presidential campaign in 2012 warned that Russia posed the single largest threat to the United States. Those, including myself, who dismissed his prognosis were wrong, because we looked only at Russia’s strength, which was not impressive. But Romney clearly understood that power in the international realm is measured by a mixture of capabilities and intentions. And though Russia is not a rising giant, it is determined to challenge and divide America and Europe and tear up the rules-based international system. Putin’s Russia is the world’s great spoiler.
> This phenomenon of a declining power becoming the greatest danger to global peace is not unprecedented. In 1914, the country that triggered World War I was Austria-Hungary, an empire in broad decline, and yet one determined to use its military to show the world it still mattered and to teach a harsh lesson to Serbia, which it regarded as a minor, vassal state. Sound familiar?
> America’s dominant priority must be to ensure that Russia does not prevail in its aggression against Ukraine. And right now, trends are moving in the wrong direction. Russian forces are consolidating their gains in eastern Ukraine. Sky-high oil prices have ensured that money continues to flow into Putin’s coffers. Europeans are beginning to talk about off-ramps. Moscow is offering developing nations a deal: Get the West to call off sanctions, it tells them, and it will help export all the grain from Ukraine and Russia and avert famine in many parts of the world. Ukraine’s leaders say it still does not have the weapons and training it needs to fight back effectively.
> 
> The best China strategy right now is to defeat Russia. Xi Jinping made a risky wager in backing Russia strongly on the eve of the invasion. If Russia comes out of this conflict a weak, marginalized country, that will be a serious blow to Xi, who is personally associated with the alliance with Putin. If, on the other hand, Putin survives and somehow manages to stage a comeback, Xi and China will learn an ominous lesson: that the West cannot uphold its rules-based system against a sustained assault.
> Most of the people in top positions in the Biden administration were senior officials in the Obama administration in 2014, when Russia launched its first invasion of Ukraine, annexed Crimea and intervened in eastern Ukraine. They were not able to reverse Moscow’s aggression or even make Putin pay much of a price for it. Perhaps at the time, they saw the greatest threat to global order as the Islamic State, or they were focused on the “pivot” to Asia, or they didn’t prioritize Ukraine enough. Now they have a second chance, but it is likely to be the last.



Noteworthy coming from Zakaria and CNN.

Especially this bit - 



> Most of the people in top positions in the Biden administration were senior officials in the Obama administration in 2014, when Russia launched its first invasion of Ukraine, annexed Crimea and intervened in eastern Ukraine. They were not able to reverse Moscow’s aggression or even make Putin pay much of a price for it.


----------



## OceanBonfire

Most Russian disinformation comes/redirected from the US:



> It found in “the Canadian Twitter ecosystem” discussing the war, around 25 per cent of the accounts were spreading pro-Russian talking points.
> 
> Boucher warned that some accounts were “Trojan horses,” with some Canadians unaware the pro-Putin narratives trace their origins back to Russia, China or right-wing influencers in the U.S.
> 
> The analysis of the content of the tweets found similar pro-Russian views expressed among right-wing figures and their supporters in the U.S. and Canada, he said.
> 
> He said supporters of the “Freedom Convoy” and anti-vaccine movement, some of whom may not realize they have been digesting messaging originating from Russia, were also tweeting messages in support of the invasion of Ukraine.
> 
> A lot of the tweets in pro-Russian social media conversations also express mistrust of institutions and “a specific mistrust of Canada’s Liberal government, and especially of Prime Minister (Justin) Trudeau,” the report found.
> 
> Boucher said “foreign interference in the Canadian information space” is now so pervasive it is sowing distrust in Canada’s democratic institutions, including the federal government and mainstream media.











						Calgary study finds Canada has been targeted with Russian disinformation with tweets linked to foreign powers  | Globalnews.ca
					

An analysis of over six-million tweets and retweets has found that Canada is being targeted by Russia to influence public opinion here.




					globalnews.ca


----------



## Mills Bomb

OceanBonfire said:


> Most Russian disinformation comes/redirected from the US:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Calgary study finds Canada has been targeted with Russian disinformation with tweets linked to foreign powers  | Globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> An analysis of over six-million tweets and retweets has found that Canada is being targeted by Russia to influence public opinion here.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> globalnews.ca



No doubt this is getting a foot hold here. We've all seen the propaganda re-posted by someone. I mean this very forum is the subject of a pretty obvious Russian misinformation by Soldier35. 

The CBC ran an article about Russian disinformation campaigns and the trucker convoy but it was quickly redacted and is no longer available. 

It's hard to say exactly what is Russian misinformation compared to just general dissatisfaction with the current government in relation to this topic. From what I've observed the political left seems interested in putting a connection between Russian misinformation and the political right, just as the right seems interested in tying the left to Communist governments. At the end of the day, it's all very difficult to decipher what dissatisfaction is genuine vs. effective Russian misinformation campaigns. 

At the end of the day, with Russia's help or not the political divide between Left and Right in Canada is becoming more extreme and I'm sure we'll see more efforts by each side to sling mud on the subject, trying to tie the opponent as playing into Russia or the CCP.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Mills Bomb said:


> ... The CBC ran an article about Russian disinformation campaigns and the trucker convoy but it was quickly redacted and is no longer available ...


Good catch - here's what the bought-and-paid-for Toronto Sun had to say about the CBC host's claims, to which CBC issued an apology ...








						CBC issues clarification over claim Kremlin behind truckers' protest
					

Announcer Nil Koksal raised the claim in a Jan. 28 broadcast




					torontosun.com


----------



## Spencer100

Mills Bomb said:


> No doubt this is getting a foot hold here. We've all seen the propaganda re-posted by someone. I mean this very forum is the subject of a pretty obvious Russian misinformation by Soldier35.
> 
> The CBC ran an article about Russian disinformation campaigns and the trucker convoy but it was quickly redacted and is no longer available.
> 
> It's hard to say exactly what is Russian misinformation compared to just general dissatisfaction with the current government in relation to this topic. From what I've observed the political left seems interested in putting a connection between Russian misinformation and the political right, just as the right seems interested in tying the left to Communist governments. At the end of the day, it's all very difficult to decipher what dissatisfaction is genuine vs. effective Russian misinformation campaigns.
> 
> At the end of the day, with Russia's help or not the political divide between Left and Right in Canada is becoming more extreme and I'm sure we'll see more efforts by each side to sling mud on the subject, trying to tie the opponent as playing into Russia or the CCP.


Yes we are starting to the divided between left and right grow ever larger but I doubt Russian propaganda, tech or social media has much to do with it at this point.  You could better argue that the seeds of today's divide were very much seeded in the cold war with the help of the Soviets and like thinkers.


----------



## KevinB

Spencer100 said:


> Yes we are starting to the divided between left and right grow ever larger but I doubt Russian propaganda, tech or social media has much to do with it at this point.  You could better argue that the seeds of today's divide were very much seeded in the cold war with the help of the Soviets and like thinkers.


No the extreme divide is recent.  
   Differences of opinion are being pulled wide and hard by many foreign influences, and parts of both Left and Right have been dumb enough to buy in.


----------



## Dana381

KevinB said:


> No the extreme divide is recent.
> Differences of opinion are being pulled wide and hard by many foreign influences, and parts of both Left and Right have been dumb enough to buy in.



Very true. United we stand, divided we fall! Lots of people can't see that division is being cultivated to weaken us.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

The problem is that, while the divide has existed peacefully for many years, it's only in the last 15-20 that it's become a hard line entrenchment on both sides. To bend one's stance on any issue thar is outside group think is to be either "weak" or to be "as bad as" your political opponents.

This kills bipartisanship and cripples societies in the West from being able to progress with any real change. That's exactly what Putin wants, and exactly what scares the shit out him IRT Ukraine. A social democracy that can work together when the chips are down... right next door to his kleptocratic fifedom. 

While we have been fighting one another based on being a "Libtard" or a "Right Wing Nut Job," Russia and China have been stoking the flames. They have made us weaker and more volatile.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1536581362882433027


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> Noteworthy coming from Zakaria and CNN.
> 
> Especially this bit -


It would have been an interesting exercise to compare Canada's response to Russia/Putin now, with Baby Trudeau in power vs, having Harper in power right now.  Would things be similar, the same or completely different?  Both would be a bit constrained by our limited CAF capabilities but what could be different?


----------



## Kirkhill

Czech_pivo said:


> It would have been an interesting exercise to compare Canada's response to Russia/Putin now, with Baby Trudeau in power vs, having Harper in power right now.  Would things be similar, the same or completely different?  Both would be a bit constrained by our limited CAF capabilities but what could be different?



Is that Harper pre-2011 or post-2011?

It's an interesting Rabbit hole to explore.  Does it get us anywhere?


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> Is that Harper pre-2011 or post-2011?
> 
> It's an interesting Rabbit hole to explore.  Does it get us anywhere?


No, not really.  He might not be so 'nice' in speaking about the Germans or the French though.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Kirkhill said:


> Is that Harper pre-2011 or post-2011?


Depends. Both Harpers would move their sails to whatever way the Re-Election winds were blowing. No change from our current PM, or the ones that preceded him. 



Kirkhill said:


> It's an interesting Rabbit hole to explore.  Does it get us anywhere?


Not at all. The problem with "What If?" exercises is that they're usually a non-viable COA. What would Harper's response be? Who cares? He's not coming back to the helm of the CPC any more than Mulroney, Clark, or Sir JAM. 

What needs to be addressed, and isn't (or is being address poorly) is what a current CPC leader would do in the hot seat. So far, we have received a resounding "not that" from all potential leaders. Its style without substance, so much of what we currently have now, just with Blue bunting instead of Red.


----------



## Kirkhill

Czech_pivo said:


> No, not really.  He might not be so 'nice' in speaking about the Germans or the French though.



But, we're here, because we're here, because we're here...


----------



## Skysix

Soldier35 said:


> British mercenary and sniper Sean Pinner, sentenced to death, told why you should not go to fight in Ukraine. Interview in English.


So you also are advocating for the execution of all captured Wagner mercenaries and Chechen fighters?


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1536740254476009472


----------



## KevinB

https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/06/14/race-against-time-ukraine-runs-out-of-ammo-calls-for-mlrs-artillery-us-willing-to-provide-everything-needed/?swcfpc=1


----------



## Mills Bomb

Soldier35 said:


> Details have appeared about the Russian armored train "Yenisei" created by soldiers of the railway troops of the "Brave" group. The armored train can restore railway tracks, carry out mine clearance, conduct technical reconnaissance and escort military cargo and echelons.



These videos are truly hilarious... this train looks like a piece of shit by Western standards, the bunker car made of wood, haha!  The Germans had much better armoured trains than this and that was over 75 years ago.

Soldier35 occasionally actually reads our responses which is kind of funny. I wish he would take the time to tell us more about this dumb looking train. It really makes me wonder if the guy behind the keyboard doing these posts knows deep down how pathetic this entire thing is.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1536815914661949444


----------



## The Bread Guy

One chat, two takes ....

UKR's Pres ....


> He had a conversation with the Prime Minister 🇨🇦 @JustinTrudeau . On the eve of important international events, the next steps in counteracting Russia's aggression against 🇺🇦 coordinated. He thanked Canada for its leadership in supporting our state. Further defense cooperation was discussed separately.


vs. CAN PM


> Today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, to express Canada’s ongoing support for Ukraine against Russia’s military aggression and to discuss a range of possible measures of Canadian assistance ahead of the upcoming Commonwealth, G7, and NATO summits.
> 
> President Zelenskyy highlighted front-line challenges, specifically in and around Severodonetsk, to the east of Ukraine, and outlined the military assistance required by Ukraine as Russian armed forces continue to attack in the Donbass region. The two leaders discussed what further assistance Canada could provide to support Ukraine, and President Zelenskyy expressed his gratitude for Canada’s unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
> 
> The Prime Minister and President discussed Russia’s persistent indiscriminate bombings and destruction of civilian infrastructure in Donbass, highlighting the gravity of the humanitarian crisis. They also discussed how Canada could engage other leaders at the upcoming Commonwealth summit in an effort to effectively counter Russia’s disinformation in the Global South and address the broader global impacts of Russia’s illegal and unjustifiable invasion.
> 
> President Zelenskyy sought Prime Minister Trudeau’s views on longer-term reconstruction in Ukraine, including on the pressing needs for educational infrastructure, as students look to resume classroom activities in the fall.
> 
> The leaders also discussed expectations for the upcoming European Council and NATO summits. The Prime Minister expressed his support for Ukraine’s progress toward closer integration into the European Union, and both leaders agreed to stay in close touch.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Like a fine mille-feuille pastry, oh the many layers of "who" "knew" "what" "when" .....


> The office of Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly knew a senior department official would be attending a party at the Russian embassy in Ottawa last Friday and was pressed to apologize by the Prime Minister’s Office.
> 
> Two senior government sources said Ms. Joly’s office was informed before the party that Yasemin Heinbecker, Global Affairs’ deputy chief of protocol, would be attending the event to celebrate Russia Day. But a spokesperson for the minister said Ms. Joly herself did not know and only learned after The Globe’s story came out.
> 
> The federal government has been under fire over having a representative at the Russian embassy since Ottawa has repeatedly talked of the need to politically and diplomatically isolate Moscow after its military assault on Ukraine began in February.
> 
> The Globe is not identifying the two sources as they were not authorized to publicly discuss the matter.
> 
> One of the sources said it was only after the intervention of top officials at the Privy Council and Prime Minister’s Office that Ms. Joly and Global Affairs were told to issue an apology and to not attend another Russian event as long as the war in Ukraine continues.
> 
> Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his top team of political and bureaucratic advisers were in Los Angeles for the Summit of the Americas and were caught off guard by Global Affairs’ decision to send an official the Russian embassy event, the source said ....


Archived link here if previous link doesn't work


----------



## Good2Golf

The Bread Guy said:


> Like a fine mille-feuille pastry, oh the many layers of "who" "knew" "what" "when" .....
> 
> Archived link here if previous link doesn't work


In fairness to Mlle. Joly, there hasn’t really been much heat and light on events in Eastern Europe, so it’s not like her Deputy Chief of Protocol would have had any reason not to officially represent Canada at an event held by…_checks notes_…the world’s second most powerful dictatorship… 🤷🏻‍♂️


/s


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> In ‘fairness’ to Mlle. Joly, there hasn’t really been much heat and light on events in Eastern Europe, so it’s not like her Deputy Chief of Protocol would have had any reason not to officially represent Canada at an event held by…_checks notes_…the world’s second most powerful dictatorship… 🤷🏻‍♂️
> 
> 
> /s


Well, again, depends "who" "knew" "what" on Joly's team.  If one of the child soldiers on the ministerial political team had clearly said "no, they're not going" I find it hard to believe government officials would have sent someone.

The political team's job is to "know" what the minister wants politically, so one would hope said team had a sense of the heat & light you refer to, but who knows?  May even have been a "You sure?  Yeah, about 80% sure.  Do it." kind of decision.


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> Like a fine mille-feuille pastry, oh the many layers of "who" "knew" "what" "when" .....
> 
> Archived link here if previous link doesn't work





> The office of Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly knew a senior department official would be attending a party at the Russian embassy in Ottawa last Friday and was pressed to apologize by the Prime Minister’s Office.
> 
> Two senior government sources said Ms. Joly’s office was informed before the party that *Yasemin Heinbecker*, Global Affairs’ deputy chief of protocol, would be attending the event to celebrate Russia Day. But a spokesperson for the minister said Ms. Joly herself did not know and only learned after The Globe’s story came out.





> *Paul Heinbecker* (born 1941) is a Canadian retired career diplomat and a former Canadian ambassador to Germany and permanent representative of Canada to the United Nations in New York City.
> 
> *Heinbecker is married to Ayşe Köymen. They have two daughters, Yasemin and Céline.*



Company town.


----------



## Kirkhill

​





						Celine  Heinbecker · Global Affairs Canada · 125 Sussex Drive, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0G2 · Deputy Director
					

Celine  Heinbecker is an employee working in Global Affairs Canada, according to the data provided by Shared Services Canada (SSC), Minister of Public Services and Procurement.  The position title is Deputy Director.



					opengovca.com
				




Sister to the miscreant at the party.


----------



## ueo

Soldier35 said:


> British mercenary and sniper Sean Pinner, sentenced to death, told why you should not go to fight in Ukraine. Interview in English.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Details have appeared about the Russian armored train "Yenisei" created by soldiers of the railway troops of the "Brave" group. The armored train can restore railway tracks, carry out mine clearance, conduct technical reconnaissance and escort military cargo and echelons.


Didn't another eurodespot have an armored train or two? Didn't end well for him.


----------



## ueo

Kirkhill said:


> ​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Celine  Heinbecker · Global Affairs Canada · 125 Sussex Drive, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0G2 · Deputy Director
> 
> 
> Celine  Heinbecker is an employee working in Global Affairs Canada, according to the data provided by Shared Services Canada (SSC), Minister of Public Services and Procurement.  The position title is Deputy Director.
> 
> 
> 
> opengovca.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sister to the miscreant at the party.


And some folks think that there is no nepotism in Ottawa!


----------



## GK .Dundas

And the reason your giving us the names of people who are only connected to the story by being related to the one person who is ?
I have to say this makes me a trifle uncomfortable.
While I am interested in knowing the whole story I don't how knowing this person's family tree helps?


----------



## KevinB

GK .Dundas said:


> And the reason your giving us the names of people who are only connected to the story by being related to the one person who is ?
> I have to say this makes me a trifle uncomfortable.
> While I am interested in knowing the whole story I don't how knowing this person's family tree helps?


Often rotten to the core...


----------



## GK .Dundas

Somebody was doing their job and I bet they were wondering what the hell they were doing there too.
From what I've read so far , this is beginning to look like somebody in the Minister's office had a visit from the good idea fairy.
Probably a political staffer trying to score points and prove how useful they  could be to the Minister.


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> ​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Celine  Heinbecker · Global Affairs Canada · 125 Sussex Drive, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0G2 · Deputy Director
> 
> 
> Celine  Heinbecker is an employee working in Global Affairs Canada, according to the data provided by Shared Services Canada (SSC), Minister of Public Services and Procurement.  The position title is Deputy Director.
> 
> 
> 
> opengovca.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sister to the miscreant at the party.




Don't look so shocked Kevin.

Check the family connections in Washington.


----------



## The Bread Guy

GK .Dundas said:


> Somebody was doing their job and I bet they were wondering what the hell they were doing there too.
> From what I've read so far , this is beginning to look like somebody in the Minister's office had a visit from the good idea fairy.
> Probably a political staffer trying to score points and prove how useful they  could be to the Minister.


Or a political staffer who didn't get it when someone from the bureaucracy asked, "we've been invited to send someone to the "Hurray for USSR 2.0!" party at the embassy"?



Kirkhill said:


> Don't look so shocked Kevin.
> 
> Check the family connections in Washington.


While nepotism is hardly zero in these circles (and worth raising in other threads), I have to agree that in this case, the family tree of an individual who had followed what they considered a lawful command to attend a function is kinda irrelevant to the decision made.  The origin of and information feeding said lawful command strikes me as more germane.


----------



## Kirkhill

GK .Dundas said:


> And the reason your giving us the names of people who are only connected to the story by being related to the one person who is ?
> I have to say this makes me a trifle uncomfortable.
> While I am interested in knowing the whole story I don't how knowing this person's family tree helps?



The person at the party may have been doing their job.  Although that seems to be in doubt.

I saw her name and sez to myself "Self!  That looks familiar!"  So I looked it up and discovered her Dad was well known in her field of work.  My Dad was well known in mine as well.  They I discovered she had a sister and wondered what she was up to and discovered that she had followed in the family business as well and was employed by the same Department as her sister and her father.

None of this speaks to any malfeasance.  It does speak to institutional continuity - and perhaps inertia.  And all the information is in the public domain via the Government of Canada, Wikipedia and Paul Heinbecker connected websites - All still connected with global affairs, writ small, and Canadian foreign policy.

I happen to find the connection relevant and curious. Especially given they are all, or have been, public employees.


Regardless - It is a rabbit hole best ignored in this thread.


----------



## GK .Dundas

I've said this before, one of the reasons I enjoy this site is that rarely do we end up  in stupid bun fights.
And during those relatively rare occasions , we usually manage to do it with good humor.


----------



## The Bread Guy

GK .Dundas said:


> I've said this before, one of the reasons I enjoy this site is that rarely do we end up  in stupid bun fights.
> And during those relatively rare occasions , we usually manage to do it with good humor.


We can, as a group, be better than ad hominem attacks on people who were following what they probably thought was a lawful command, indeed.

Back to Ukraine, another sign that the cause you're backing is truly & broadly supported by your huddled masses (via RUS independent media) ....








						Chechen Authorities Using Threats and Blackmail to Recruit Soldiers for Ukraine – Investigation  - The Moscow Times
					

Authorities in the Russian republic of Chechnya are forcing local men to join “volunteer” battalions for Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, investigative news outlet The Insider reported Wednesday.  Soldiers have reported the use of intimidation, blackmail, or threats of torture and kidnapping...




					www.themoscowtimes.com


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1537131536163667968


----------



## Spencer100

The Bread Guy said:


> Back to Ukraine, another sign that the cause you're backing is truly & broadly supported by your huddled masses (via RUS independent media) ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Chechen Authorities Using Threats and Blackmail to Recruit Soldiers for Ukraine – Investigation  - The Moscow Times
> 
> 
> Authorities in the Russian republic of Chechnya are forcing local men to join “volunteer” battalions for Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, investigative news outlet The Insider reported Wednesday.  Soldiers have reported the use of intimidation, blackmail, or threats of torture and kidnapping...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.themoscowtimes.com


Could the Russian population support the greater cause but also not say just not my life or son's life?


----------



## KevinB

Spencer100 said:


> Could the Russian population support the greater cause but also not say just not my life or son's life?


Fighting to the last Separatist...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Spencer100 said:


> Could the Russian population support the greater cause but also not say just not my life or son's life?


Probably not, given The System supports the cause way more than they support your right to choose whether to fight or not.


----------



## Spencer100

The Bread Guy said:


> Probably not, given The System supports the cause way more than they support your right to choose whether to fight or not.


Agreed.  

I was meaning the reports of the increased Russian population's support of the war and Putin.  It could total make up crap poling.  It also could be the mind set of the whole world is against us circle the wagons remember we are alone in the world like our grandfathers.   But we're not going to join the fight....


----------



## KevinB

Spencer100 said:


> Agreed.
> 
> I was meaning the reports of the increased Russian population's support of the war and Putin.  It could total make up crap poling.  It also could be the mind set of the whole world is against us circle the wagons remember we are alone in the world like our grandfathers.   But we're not going to join the fight....


Lots of interesting numbers coming out of Russia depending on who does the poling. 
   It’s clear by the amount of rail accidents and power plant fires they are having there is a bit more that a minority that aren’t to happy with Mr P and his warZ.


----------



## Maxman1

ueo said:


> Didn't another eurodespot have an armored train or two? Didn't end well for him.



Sir Winston Churchill had some choice words about armoured trains, having been in one that was ambushed in South Africa.

"Nothing looks more formidable and impressive than an armoured train; but nothing is in fact more vulnerable and helpless. It was only necessary to blow up a bridge of culvert to leave the monster stranded, far from home and help, at the mercy of the enemy"


----------



## The Bread Guy

Spencer100 said:


> Could the Russian population support the greater cause but also not say just not my life or son's life?


Also remember the Chechens are "convincing" their own fellow Chechens, not necessarily Russians.

Also, Canada's latest offering








						Canada to send C$9 mln of replacement barrels for howitzer guns to Ukraine
					

Canada will provide 10 replacement barrels for M777 howitzer artillery guns to Ukraine in new military aid valued at C$9 million ($6.9 million), the Canadian defense minister said on Wednesday.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## OldSolduer

The Bread Guy said:


> We can, as a group, be better than ad hominem attacks on people who were following what they probably thought was a lawful command, indeed.
> 
> Back to Ukraine, another sign that the cause you're backing is truly & broadly supported by your huddled masses (via RUS independent media) ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Chechen Authorities Using Threats and Blackmail to Recruit Soldiers for Ukraine – Investigation  - The Moscow Times
> 
> 
> Authorities in the Russian republic of Chechnya are forcing local men to join “volunteer” battalions for Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, investigative news outlet The Insider reported Wednesday.  Soldiers have reported the use of intimidation, blackmail, or threats of torture and kidnapping...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.themoscowtimes.com


I long suspected Chechens for an incident that happened elsewhere. I am not a fan of them.


----------



## FJAG

The Bread Guy said:


> Also remember the Chechens are "convincing" their own fellow Chechens, not necessarily Russians.
> 
> Also, Canada's latest offering
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada to send C$9 mln of replacement barrels for howitzer guns to Ukraine
> 
> 
> Canada will provide 10 replacement barrels for M777 howitzer artillery guns to Ukraine in new military aid valued at C$9 million ($6.9 million), the Canadian defense minister said on Wednesday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


Great. Now our M777s will go the same way as our LG1s and C3s.

😖


----------



## GR66

FJAG said:


> Great. Now our M777s will go the same way as our LG1s and C3s.
> 
> 😖


Give them all our M777s and replace them with something SP.


----------



## Furniture

GK .Dundas said:


> Somebody was doing their job and I bet they were wondering what the hell they were doing there too.
> From what I've read so far , this is beginning to look like somebody in the Minister's office had a visit from the good idea fairy.
> Probably a political staffer trying to score points and prove how useful they  could be to the Minister.


We wouldn't accept that answer from a Cpl who attended a party like that, why should we accept it from a very senior diplomat?

We pay people like the Deputy Chief of Protocol at GAC a lot of money to make smart decisions that make Canada look good. This should be a termination, or demotion level event, I suspect it will be a "your family has a reputation to uphold, so don't make another mistake" level event.


----------



## FJAG

GR66 said:


> Give them all our M777s and replace them with something SP.


I can think of about four reserve regiments to give them to.

😁


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Furniture said:


> We wouldn't accept that answer from a Cpl who attended a party like that, why should we accept it from a very senior diplomat?
> 
> We pay people like the Deputy Chief of Protocol at GAC a lot of money to make smart decisions that make Canada look good. This should be a termination, or demotion level event, I suspect it will be a "your family has a reputation to uphold, so don't make another mistake" level event.


I have been told to do things when I was in the PS and said "You really, really want to think about this. Are you willing to have this on the front page?"


----------



## Colin Parkinson

At least one M777 has been lost


----------



## GR66

FJAG said:


> I can think of about four reserve regiments to give them to.
> 
> 😁


You know I'm fully in favour of properly equipping the Reserves.  However, Russia and other aggressive countries like it are the very reason why we have our military.  We're not willing to fight Russia ourselves so Ukraine is taking the punishment in our stead.  

What use are our "deterrent" weapons if we leave them sitting on the parade square?  Hold on to them in case Russia attacks?  They already have.  Those M777s are absolutely useless sitting in Canada.  Ukraine is already training to use them.  Give them the weapons they need to fight where we're not willing to.


----------



## Kirkhill

Colin Parkinson said:


> At least one M777 has been lost
> 
> View attachment 71405


Impressive the amount of titanium alloys in that beast.


----------



## FJAG

Colin Parkinson said:


> At least one M777 has been lost
> 
> View attachment 71405


Well, the spare barrels won't help out here.

Hard to tell what exactly happened. I find the lack of any real damage to the ground around the gun puzzling.  If either an impact or a bore premature there should be more damage visible.

This is what a bore premature looks like.







🍻


----------



## Skysix

Looking at the way the metal is torn, maybe the shell exploded in the breech (bad shell or fuse?) or more likely the gun was spiked and destroyed to prevent capture and reuse.


----------



## CBH99

GK .Dundas said:


> Somebody was doing their job and I bet they were wondering what the hell they were doing there too.
> From what I've read so far , this is beginning to look like somebody in the Minister's office had a visit from the good idea fairy.
> Probably a political staffer trying to score points and prove how useful they  could be to the Minister.


I’m not disagreeing with you - just taking your example one step further.  

One is a staffer trying to show how useful and helpful they can be.  The other is a Minister, someone who should have enough experience & time in their department to make the proper decision.  

“Stay the hell away from the Russian embassy’s parties until further notice” seems simple enough


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1537306662754734080


----------



## The Bread Guy

Furniture said:


> We wouldn't accept that answer from a Cpl who attended a party like that, why should we accept it from a very senior diplomat?


And how about the section/platoon/company commander who gave the order to do it - we good with them giving an order to do something that leads to the Cpl getting in shit just for doing what s/he was told (assuming said Cpl didn't do anything outrageous outside the assigned task)?  "We checked with Bn HQ before tasking the Cpl, and they were OK", then the battalion commander shits on the Cpl & those who tasked the Cpl?  Yeah, all on the Cpl, that ...


Furniture said:


> We pay people like the Deputy Chief of Protocol at GAC a lot of money to make smart decisions that make Canada look good. This should be a termination, or demotion level event


And we pay that person's bureaucratic bosses even _more_ to make smart decisions.  If her bosses gave the order knowing the Minister's people were jiggy with it, how about, oh, I don't know ... hold the top politician in the department responsible and have them resign?


Furniture said:


> I suspect it will be a "your family has a reputation to uphold, so don't make another mistake" level event.


Given there seems to have been a chain of command/information problem, I don't think the family connection is relevant - could have been anybody in the position who went and broke bread with the bad guys o' the day.  "The Department" made a decision (assuming the D/Chief Protocol can't make decisions of this level on their own), understanding the Minister was good with it, with the Minister then saying "I didn't know about this".


----------



## The Bread Guy

Fingers crossed ....








						2 US veterans from Alabama reported missing in Ukraine
					

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (AP) — Two U.S. veterans from Alabama who were in Ukraine assisting in the war  against Russia haven't been heard from in days and are missing, members of the state's congressional delegation said Wednesday.




					apnews.com


----------



## Skysix

McG said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1537306662754734080


Is it just me, or do these updates seem just to be a summary of OSINT reworded with a bit of common sense analysis? They don't really seem to have hard data or insightfull opinion any more.


----------



## Good2Golf

Soldier35 said:


> The Russian Defense Ministry has published footage of a combat sortie of a pair of Su-25 attack aircraft in Ukraine. The pilots attacked strongholds of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The video shows mainly the view of the flight from the cockpit


@Soldier35, I see they were told to take the U.S.-made Garmin clip-on GPS down when making propaganda films…that’s why the VKS pilot is having such problems navigating properly in this video.


----------



## Kirkhill

An interesting assessment of the state of play.









						What the invasion of Ukraine has revealed about the nature of modern warfare | The Strategist
					

When Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, he envisaged a quick seizure of Kyiv and a change of government analogous to Soviet interventions in Budapest in 1956 and Prague ...




					www.aspistrategist.org.au


----------



## Spencer100

Soldier35 said:


> The Russian Defense Ministry has published footage of a combat sortie of a pair of Su-25 attack aircraft in Ukraine. The pilots attacked strongholds of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The video shows mainly the view of the flight from the cockpit


Soldier35 Just an observation.  Your media clips have a more production and edited feel to them than say a Ukrainian Tik Tok.  This is one of the reasons the Ukraine is "winning" the PR, online war at this time.  Their media and material just has a more authentic look and feel to it.  Yes I hate video recorded in portrait mode too.  But they do have that look of being real (even if they are not)   Your stuff looks like it was made by a network local TV affiliate for the 6 o'clock news circa 1999.   The modern video and news consumer just doesn't believe it or want it.  My understanding is that in Russia in the country side the homes with old fashion linear television they buy it. But in the more modern high speed internet cities not so much.  And don't forget most of the west is high speed internet connected.  You may want to send a memo to the bosses their content is just not working here.  It sure doesn't for me.  I just talking about the "feel" the "look"  its not going to win the PR battle.


----------



## CBH99

OldSolduer said:


> I long suspected Chechens for an incident that happened elsewhere. I am not a fan of them.


From what I hear, the Russians aren’t huge fans of them either 😉

And since fighting guerilla wars seems to be Chechnya’s national sport, some of the lads from there find themselves hired by both the Russians AND Ukrainians as contractors.  


Sounds lovely.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> An interesting assessment of the state of play.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What the invasion of Ukraine has revealed about the nature of modern warfare | The Strategist
> 
> 
> When Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, he envisaged a quick seizure of Kyiv and a change of government analogous to Soviet interventions in Budapest in 1956 and Prague ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.aspistrategist.org.au



I liked this one:

Fifth, information warfare makes a difference. As RAND’s John Arquilla pointed out two decades ago, the outcomes of modern warfare depend not only on whose army wins, but also on ‘whose story wins’.


----------



## The Bread Guy

In case you're tracking OS counting ...








						Ukraine suffering up to 1,000 casualties per day in Donbas, official says
					

Ukraine's top negotiator says 200 to 500 troops are dying daily.




					www.axios.com


----------



## GR66

Soldier35 said:


> ...
> 
> A new batch of Western weapons has arrived in Ukraine, a trainload of British Warrior MCV-80 armored personnel carriers has been spotted. Serial production of the BMP Warrior MCV-80 began in 1985. The armored vehicle is equipped with a 30 mm L21A1 automatic cannon, with which a 7.62 mm machine gun is paired. The Warrior BMP has a significant drawback - the lack of stabilization of the 30-mm cannon, because of this, it is advisable to fire while stopped. Despite this, Warrior in terms of reliability and survivability has proven itself well in the war in Iraq. Some versions of the armored personnel carrier were equipped with Chobham armor; there is a known case when such armor withstood 12 RPG hits in Iraq, but these versions were not delivered to Ukraine. Now the Warrior MCV-80 is in service with Britain and Kuwait, but is gradually being replaced by the German BMP Boxer. The speed on the highway BTR Warrior 75 km / h, cruising range 500 km. The crew of the BMP is 3 people, the number of soldiers transported is 7.


Maybe we should get some Ukrainians over here starting to train on/learn to maintain the LAV.


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> I liked this one:
> 
> Fifth, information warfare makes a difference. As RAND’s John Arquilla pointed out two decades ago, the outcomes of modern warfare depend not only on whose army wins, but also on ‘whose story wins’.



I'm not sure that that is unique to modern warfare -

Bannockburn, The Boyne, Mecca, the many falls of Jerusalem, Kosovo and tales of the Teutonic Knights - even "Je me souviens".

When are wars ended?


----------



## RangerRay

Interesting tid-bit from Terry Glavin’s latest substack about the Russia Day diplomatic faux pas:



> Fuerdai and Fish Wars
> Here’s the lede paragraph from my column in today’s National Post: _The Chinese have a word for them. They’re known as the fuerdai. They’re the immensely powerful and gluttonous Communist Party elites of the second generation, the children of Mao Zedong’s ruling class. . ._
> It’s a column about what may be a looming Canada-U.S. salmon war on the west coast, but it’s really about the wholly out of touch, clueless and creepy Fort Pearson fuerdai in Ottawa. Full marks to the Globe and Mail’s Stephen Chase & Bob Fife for scooping everyone with the initial story, which was about a Global Affairs bigshot who thought it would be okay to have fun and caviar and vodka at the Russian embassy - a lot like the high-society coddling of Oliver Stone in Quebec, when you think about it
> What interested me was the bigshot in question was Paul Heinbecker’s kid. Heinbecker Senior is a fixture in the Libeal foreign policy establishment, and he has another kid occupying a top Global Affairs post. Then there’s the old China palm-greaser Peter Harder, whose son got a gig at the embassy in Beijing, and former Prime Minister Jean Chretien and his son-in-law at the Canada-China Business Council, and Jean Charest and his kid, who heads up the Canada Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong.
> The point is, the fix was in for these people from the beginning. Justin Trudeau won his place in the Prime Minister’s Office by saying he was done with the old guard. That wasn’t true. As soon as he was elected, it was the Disco Era again. I wrote about that in October, 2015, while it was happening. Here.
> What’s this got to do with fish?
> Foreign Affairs tends to hive itself off into its own little box with its own cossetted bureaucrats and chin-stokers and “experts,” but Foreign Affairs touches on everything. The days of the old “Foreign Office” are dead and gone. “Foreign Affairs” touches on trade, refugees, capital flows, immigration, housing, monetary policy, military policy, housing, and housing and housing. And fisheries, and the fuerdais’ inattention to the U.S. pillaging of B.C.’s chinook salmon stocks is scandalous.
> I mean, look at this photograph a friend and subscriber sent, taken at a supermarket in Victoria:


From here:









						Today's newsletter is brought to you by the letter 'F.' Fuerdai & Fish Wars, Neo-Fascist Fanboys, Fact-Finding & Friends Far & Near.
					

Bonus: About that Global Affairs apparatchik who showed up for Russia Day fun, caviar & vodka at the Kremlin's embassy in Ottawa last Friday. Also some deep inside for paying subscribers, at the end.




					therealstory.substack.com


----------



## Spencer100

RangerRay said:


> Interesting tid-bit from Terry Glavin’s latest substack about the Russia Day diplomatic faux pas:
> 
> 
> From here:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Today's newsletter is brought to you by the letter 'F.' Fuerdai & Fish Wars, Neo-Fascist Fanboys, Fact-Finding & Friends Far & Near.
> 
> 
> Bonus: About that Global Affairs apparatchik who showed up for Russia Day fun, caviar & vodka at the Kremlin's embassy in Ottawa last Friday. Also some deep inside for paying subscribers, at the end.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> therealstory.substack.com


Didn't Trump call them the "Swamp"?  


1,2,3,4........inbound.  lol


----------



## Spencer100

Oh no Soldier35 banned...

He looked to be changing his tune a little bit...
It could have been a secret call for help.   A subliminal message. 

Oh well.....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Spencer100 said:


> Oh no Soldier35 banned...
> 
> He looked to be changing his tune a little bit...
> It could have been a secret call for help.   A subliminal message.
> 
> Oh well.....


Other members gave him directions for help if needed


----------



## MilEME09

Some combat footage from inside Serverodonetsk, crazy urban fighting


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1537604221108903940


----------



## FJAG

> Joint Statement on MLRS and GMLRS to Ukraine | Joint Forces News
> 
> 
> Joint Statement by the United States DoD, the German MoD and the United Kingdom MoD on the supply of MLRS and GMLRS to Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.joint-forces.com



🍻


----------



## TacticalTea

Skysix said:


> Is it just me, or do these updates seem just to be a summary of OSINT reworded with a bit of common sense analysis? They don't really seem to have hard data or insightfull opinion any more.


Any more?

I never read anything in those updates that twitter hadn't already informed me of. In terms of official sources, only Ukraine and the Pentagon have provided or confirmed new information.


----------



## McG

Skysix said:


> Is it just me, or do these updates seem just to be a summary of OSINT reworded with a bit of common sense analysis? They don't really seem to have hard data or insightfull opinion any more.


It has the advantage of being written by someone(s) who is in a better position to separate fact from fiction because they are with access to the non open source info, and it is coming from an organization that wants to protect its credibility.  They are not going to release everything they know and they are probably going to stay quiet on any unfavorable conclusions.  But, if you are on the fence between two competing OS narratives, I'd give more weight to one that is endorsed by a five eyes ministry of defence.


----------



## KevinB

FJAG said:


> 🍻


Need to add some zeros to those numbers at the end.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Nice little summary from UK MoD info-machine on how USSR 2.0 offers "humanitarian corridors" (but not into Ukraine) and bashes Ukraine for not allowing such corridors ...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1537404739234762752


----------



## The Bread Guy

He *made *me kick him in the nutz ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

We're number one in the Americas (for "foreign mercs" in UKR), according to RUS MoD's info-machine (archived link) - highlights mine ...


> Against the backdrop of the Kiev regime's mounting military failures and massive daily losses in manpower and equipment, the flow of foreign mercenaries to Ukraine has not only decreased, but is actually turning in the opposite direction.
> 
> Despite the Kiev regime's efforts and increased payments, the process of mercenaries leaving to the "other world" or back to their countries of residence has not been stopped by the Kiev leadership.
> 
> Recent empty statements about almost "20,000" foreigners "fighting" against the Russian Armed Forces are just plain lies.
> 
> (...)
> 
> ... among European countries, Poland is the undisputed leader in terms of the number of mercenaries both arriving and dying. Since the beginning of the special military operation, 1,831 people have arrived in Ukraine, of whom 378 have already been killed and 272 mercenaries have departed for their homeland. It is followed by Romania with 504 arrivals, 102 deaths and 98 departures. The UK is in third place: 422 arrivals, 101 deaths, 95 departures.
> 
> *Among the Americas, Canada leads the way: 601 arrivals, 162 deaths, 169 departures. The USA comes second: 530 arrivals, 214 deaths, 227 departures.*
> 
> From the Middle East, Transcaucasus and Asia the largest number, 355 mercenaries, came from Georgia, of whom 120 died and 90 left Ukraine. Then there are 200 terrorist fighters redeployed from the US-controlled areas of Jazira region in Syria. To date, 80 have been eliminated and 66 have left Ukraine.
> 
> In total, our lists as at June 17, 2022, include mercenaries and weapons operating specialists from 64 countries. Since the beginning of the special military operation, 6,956 people have arrived in Ukraine, 1,956 have already been eliminated and 1,779 have left ...


Safe PDF of statement (in official English) also attached


----------



## McG

The Bread Guy said:


> We're number one in the Americas (for "foreign mercs" in UKR), according to RUS MoD's info-machine (archived link) - highlights mine ...
> 
> Safe PDF of statement also attached


So Russia claims to have murdered 162 Canadians and 214 Americans who were only helping Ukraine exercise its right to self-defence?


----------



## The Bread Guy

McG said:


> So Russia claims to have murdered 162 Canadians and 214 Americans who were only helping Ukraine exercise its right to self-defence?


Hey, hey, hey, c'mon now - it's _Team USSR 2.0_ claiming self-defence here, as mentioned by Putin in the post before the "merc stats" one. Get yer propaganda narrative straight


----------



## Kirkhill

4:18pm
President Zelensky writes on Telegram...​


> Many days of this war have proved that Great Britain's support for Ukraine is firm and resolute.
> 
> Glad to see our country's great friend Boris Johnson in Kyiv again.


4:05pm
What would training for Ukrainian troops look like?​If accepted by Ukraine, the British scheme would see soldiers learn "battle-winning skills for the front line" in addition to basic medical and cyber-security training and counter-explosive tactics.
Operation Orbital saw the UK train more than 22,000 personnel between 2015, the year after the Russian annexation of Crimea, and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February.
"The battle-winning skills taught during the seven-year programme enabled Ukrainian forces to launch a ferocious defence against Russia’s illegal and unprovoked invasion," Downing Street said in a statement this afternoon. "The new programme would train forces outside of the country."
It follows more than£1.3billion in humanitarian and economic support to Ukraine since February 24, including military aid.
3:56pm
Breaking: UK confirms major training programme for Ukrainian forces​The United Kingdom will offer Ukrainian forces a major training programme, Downing Street has confirmed after Boris Johnson met with Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv earlier today.
Advertisement

Mr Johnson said the UK could facilitate a training scheme with the capacity to train as many as 10,000 soldiers every 120 days, using battle-proven British Army expertise.
If the offer were to be accepted by Ukraine, international partners would also be invited to host the programme.
Mr Johnson said: "My visit today, in the depths of this war, is to send a clear and simple message to the Ukrainian people: the UK is with you, and we will be with you until you ultimately prevail. As Ukrainian soldiers fire UK missiles in defence of your nation’s sovereignty, they do so also in defence of the very freedoms we take for granted.
"That is why I have offered President Zelensky a major new military training programme that could change the equation of this war – harnessing that most powerful of forces, the Ukrainian determination to win. Two months on from my last visit, the Ukrainian grit, determination and resilience is stronger than ever, and I know that unbreakable resolve will long outlive the vain ambitions of President Putin."

3:38pm
The Prime Minister tweets...​

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1537805704081309701

Politics latest news: Britain can train Ukraine's forces, Boris Johnson says on surprise Kyiv visit


----------



## Weinie

Kirkhill said:


> 4:18pm
> President Zelensky writes on Telegram...​
> 4:05pm
> What would training for Ukrainian troops look like?​If accepted by Ukraine, the British scheme would see soldiers learn "battle-winning skills for the front line" in addition to basic medical and cyber-security training and counter-explosive tactics.
> Operation Orbital saw the UK train more than 22,000 personnel between 2015, the year after the Russian annexation of Crimea, and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February.
> "The battle-winning skills taught during the seven-year programme enabled Ukrainian forces to launch a ferocious defence against Russia’s illegal and unprovoked invasion," Downing Street said in a statement this afternoon. "The new programme would train forces outside of the country."
> It follows more than£1.3billion in humanitarian and economic support to Ukraine since February 24, including military aid.
> 3:56pm
> Breaking: UK confirms major training programme for Ukrainian forces​The United Kingdom will offer Ukrainian forces a major training programme, Downing Street has confirmed after Boris Johnson met with Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv earlier today.
> Advertisement
> 
> Mr Johnson said the UK could facilitate a training scheme with the capacity to train as many as 10,000 soldiers every 120 days, using battle-proven British Army expertise.
> If the offer were to be accepted by Ukraine, international partners would also be invited to host the programme.
> Mr Johnson said: "My visit today, in the depths of this war, is to send a clear and simple message to the Ukrainian people: the UK is with you, and we will be with you until you ultimately prevail. As Ukrainian soldiers fire UK missiles in defence of your nation’s sovereignty, they do so also in defence of the very freedoms we take for granted.
> "That is why I have offered President Zelensky a major new military training programme that could change the equation of this war – harnessing that most powerful of forces, the Ukrainian determination to win. Two months on from my last visit, the Ukrainian grit, determination and resilience is stronger than ever, and I know that unbreakable resolve will long outlive the vain ambitions of President Putin."
> 
> 3:38pm
> The Prime Minister tweets...​
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1537805704081309701
> 
> Politics latest news: Britain can train Ukraine's forces, Boris Johnson says on surprise Kyiv visit


Leadership by example.


----------



## Spencer100

McG said:


> So Russia claims to have murdered 162 Canadians and 214 Americans who were only helping Ukraine exercise its right to self-defence?


Compare with the Mackenzie-Papeau Battalion.  1546 Canadians joined and 721 killed over two years.


----------



## Kirkhill

Spencer100 said:


> Compare with the Mackenzie-Papeau Battalion.  1546 Canadians joined and 721 killed over two years.



Their predecessors 






						Zouaves
					

Between February 1868 and September 1870, 7 contingents totalling 507 Canadians enrolled in the papal army (whose soldiers were known as Papal Zouaves) to help ...




					www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca


----------



## Spencer100

Harpoons are being used now.  Looks like they did hit but did damage with shrapnel.  Did the CIWS hit the missiles first?


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/velwh9


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ve4cgm


----------



## Kirkhill

> A top Democratic lawmaker is pushing the Biden administration to send Ukraine armed drones and longer range artillery, he told reporters Wednesday.
> 
> "When it comes to drones and when it comes to long-range artillery, we've been too cautious," House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith, D-Wash., said at an event hosted by the Defense Writers Group.
> 
> "And *I don't agree with the president's take that we can't give the Ukrainians anything capable of striking Russia," Smith continued. "Ukraine borders Russia. If you give them a mortar shell that can go a mile, theoretically it can strike Russia*. The issue is, if the Russians are able to see better and shoot further, then you're in a disadvantage. So I think we should give them more of that."












						'We've Been Too Cautious': Key Lawmaker Backs Giving Ukraine Armed Drones
					

Earlier this month, the Biden administration announced it was sending Ukraine medium-range rocket systems known as High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems for the first time.




					www.military.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Harpoon in action









						Russian Navy SAR ship hit by Harpoon missile, destroyed UPDATE confirmed
					

Jun 17 1530 UTC: A number of Russian media outlets confirm VASILIY BEKH was hit, destroyed, sank, referring to Navy insiders. Awaiting ...




					www.fleetmon.com


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vekbbz


----------



## Kirkhill

Russia has ‘strategically lost’ war, says UK defence chief, as Lavrov says Moscow unashamed
					

‘Russia is not squeaky clean. Russia is what it is’ – Kremlin foreign minister’s response to UN report claiming atrocities in Ukraine




					www.theguardian.com
				






> “Russia has strategically lost already. Nato is stronger, Finland and Sweden are looking to join,” he said.
> https://www.theguardian.com/law/202...-infiltrate-war-crimes-court-says-netherlands
> Radakin said that while Putin may achieve “tactical successes” in the weeks to come, it had come at the expense of a quarter of his country’s army power for “tiny” gains and was running out of troops and hi-tech missiles.
> 
> “The Russian machine is grinding away, and it’s gaining a couple of – two, three, five – kilometres every day,” the admiral said.
> 
> “And Russia has vulnerabilities because it’s running out of people, it’s running out of hi-tech missiles.
> 
> “President Putin has used about 25% of his army’s power to gain a tiny amount of territory and 50,000 people either dead or injured. Russia is failing.”
> 
> Radakin’s claims echo British intelligence reports, the latest of which said some Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) – typically established at about 600 to 800 personnel – have only been able to muster as few as 30 soldiers.


----------



## Kirkhill

Russian intelligence operations.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ve7h8d


----------



## Kirkhill

I wonder if those M109s can be fitted with L52 barrels?


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vegc5c


----------



## Kirkhill

A bit more news on the development of Coastal Defences for Ukraine.  



			With Launchers And Missiles From Different Countries, Ukraine Assembles A New Anti-Ship Arsenal
		


Apparently Taiwan has bought, for themselves, 100 Harpoon launching trucks with 4 missiles ready to fire on each truck.


----------



## The Bread Guy

McG said:


> So Russia claims to have murdered 162 Canadians and 214 Americans who were only helping Ukraine exercise its right to self-defence?





Spencer100 said:


> Compare with the Mackenzie-Papeau Battalion.  1546 Canadians joined and 721 killed over two years.


Then again, we also have to consider how solid the RUS MoD info-machine #s are.

Some in these parts have said maybe divide by 3 for certain UKR theatre estimates, so it may be about 50 Canadians killed.  

If we want to apply the "Taliban Formula" (14.3 Canadians claimed killed for each Canadian actually killed), could be as few as 11 Canadians.  

Either of these numbers seem high, given lack of MSM coverage of even one Canadian death in UKR.  

I defer to others with better number skills to play with these figures.

Meanwhile, anyone interested in some tech docs for a pretty loooooooooong-ish bridge connecting Crimea to Russia?  This from UKR mil int ...





						Detailed Technical Documents of the Crimean Bridge Is Received. Document
					






					gur.gov.ua


----------



## The Bread Guy

The Bread Guy said:


> Fingers crossed ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 2 US veterans from Alabama reported missing in Ukraine
> 
> 
> BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (AP) — Two U.S. veterans from Alabama who were in Ukraine assisting in the war  against Russia haven't been heard from in days and are missing, members of the state's congressional delegation said Wednesday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> apnews.com


More on these guys via RUS state media (archived link here)


----------



## daftandbarmy

The pips are squeaking ....

Putin blasts ‘stupid’ Western sanctions as economic ‘blitzkrieg’​_At St Petersburg economic forum, Russian president says West trying to crush Russia with ‘stupid sanctions’, amounting to an economic ‘blitzkrieg’._

Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused the West of colonial arrogance and of trying to crush his country with “stupid” sanctions that amounted to an economic “blitzkrieg”.

Addressing the St Petersburg International Economic Forum on Friday, a showcase event this year being held with almost no Western participation, Putin told Russia’s political and economic elite that he would continue his war on Ukraine.









						Putin blasts ‘stupid’ Western sanctions as economic ‘blitzkrieg’
					

At St Petersburg economic forum, Russian president says West trying to crush Russia with ‘stupid sanctions’.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## AlexanderM

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1537933837170143233


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good question ...








						Sean M. Maloney: Putin will starve millions. What is Canada willing to do to stop him?
					

Why is there no Royal Canadian Navy task force heading in to keep the sealanes in the international waters of the Black Sea open?




					theline.substack.com


----------



## RangerRay

The Bread Guy said:


> Good question ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sean M. Maloney: Putin will starve millions. What is Canada willing to do to stop him?
> 
> 
> Why is there no Royal Canadian Navy task force heading in to keep the sealanes in the international waters of the Black Sea open?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> theline.substack.com


Short answer is we don’t have the same navy we had in 1967. 

I noticed the author didn’t mention a role for the RN and USN, nor that of Turkey in keeping any further warships from entering the Bosporus.


----------



## FJAG

Kirkhill said:


> I wonder if those M109s can be fitted with L52 barrels?
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vegc5c


Most probably not. The US production lines to do that level of upgrade have shut down many years ago in favour of converting newer A5 models to A6PIMs and that has probably stopped as well since the new A7 which is the current main model has a different hull and powerplant as well. We had that issue with wanting to upgrade A4+s long ago. It would need to be a custom and very expensive job and probably not worth the effort.

🍻


The Bread Guy said:


> If we want to apply the "Taliban Formula" (14.3 Canadians claimed killed for each Canadian actually killed), could be as few as 11 Canadians.


The Russian info machine is so much more sophisticated 😁 that zero Canadians encountered could well end up as 162 killed. Why lie at all if you can't lie big?

🍻


----------



## Skysix

It is not just Canada suffering from a lack of will and a downgraded military either. The USA may not (yet) be a paper tiger in non nuclear terms but it is hardly titanium either. More like plywood.









						In Denial About Denial: Why Ukraine’s Air Success Should Worry the West - War on the Rocks
					

Ukraine’s success in contesting the skies turns the West’s airpower paradigm on its head — it offers an alternative vision for pursuing airspace denial



					warontherocks.com
				












						Cascading Issues Keeping Air Force, Navy Planes Grounded Watchdog Says
					

The GAO has a new report out on Air Force and Navy aircraft readiness and it isn't pretty.




					www.thedrive.com
				












						Why Ukraine’s wins against Russian aircraft should worry the US Air Force
					

The U.S. Air Force may need to switch from offensive air superiority missions to the long grind of defensive air denial missions.




					taskandpurpose.com
				












						New Wings For A-10s Arrive As Air Force Wants Warthogs Retired In Five Years
					

The re-winging program is happening as the USAF strangles the A-10 force in other ways in hopes of finally grounding the type by 2028.




					www.thedrive.com
				












						The Army Keeps Boosting Recruiting Bonuses as It Struggles to Find New Soldiers
					

The Army has become more aggressive with major recruitment bonuses, especially for recruits who elect to ship out to basic training right away.




					www.military.com
				












						Navy's Peculiar Plan To Retire EA-18 Growlers Is Up In The Air
					

An Air Force-Navy team-up could save 25 Growlers from the boneyard as changes in the nature of airborne electronic attack accelerate.




					www.thedrive.com
				




Former Army undersecretary Norman Augustine:
"In the year 2054, the entire defense budget will purchase just one aircraft. This aircraft will have to be shared by the Air Force and Navy 3-1/2 days each per week except for leap year, when it will be made available to the Marines for the extra day"


----------



## The Bread Guy

RangerRay said:


> Short answer is we don’t have the same navy we had in 1967.
> 
> I noticed the author didn’t mention a role for the RN and USN, nor that of Turkey in keeping any further warships from entering the Bosporus.


I think as a Canadian analyst, he was looking more at "what can & can't Canada do?" than "what can be done about the Black Sea?"


----------



## MilEME09

FJAG said:


> Most probably not. The US production lines to do that level of upgrade have shut down many years ago in favour of converting newer A5 models to A6PIMs and that has probably stopped as well since the new A7 which is the current main model has a different hull and powerplant as well. We had that issue with wanting to upgrade A4+s long ago. It would need to be a custom and very expensive job and probably not worth the effort.


There comes a point where it is cheaper to buy new then repair or upgrade the old. I hope the current war has taught our military that we need a lot more artillery then we currently do.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

MilEME09 said:


> There comes a point where it is cheaper to buy new then repair or upgrade the old. I hope the current war has taught our military that we need a lot more artillery then we currently do.


They are to busy on harassment , diversity training, button and bows and fancy Mess dinners.


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> There comes a point where it is cheaper to buy new then repair or upgrade the old. I hope the current war has taught our military that we need a lot more artillery then we currently do.



It may be cheaper but it may be more expedient, if simply replacing an existing capability, to retain the inventory number and upgrade to the latest standard.

Also, in this particular case, with the British refurbishment of the Belgian owned US made M109s it will be, by definition, a custom job.  So that boils down to what is possible more than what doe it cost and how long will it last in a warehouse?


----------



## Skysix

Speaking of weapons we need ... Not this one exactly, but more like a 40mm version of the Tavor TS12. This one makes staying low very problematic. A TS40 could be a heavy but useful grenadier's weapon.









						New Automatic Grenade Launcher Is Designed Like An Assault Rifle
					

The Squad Support Weapon 40 is magazine-fed and can rapidly fire 40mm medium-velocity grenades with high accuracy, and yes, it looks like its from a sci-fi action flick.




					www.thedrive.com


----------



## MilEME09

Skysix said:


> Speaking of weapons we need ... Not this one exactly, but more like a 40mm version of the Tavor TS12. This one makes staying low very problematic. A TS40 could be a heavy but useful grenadier's weapon.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New Automatic Grenade Launcher Is Designed Like An Assault Rifle
> 
> 
> The Squad Support Weapon 40 is magazine-fed and can rapidly fire 40mm medium-velocity grenades with high accuracy, and yes, it looks like its from a sci-fi action flick.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedrive.com


There was talk of replacing the M203 with the colt eagle, which is a newer ambidextrous 40mm launcher. As always nothing materialized









						EAGLE - Colt Canada
					

ENHANCED AMBIDEXTROUS GRENADE LAUNCHER Colt Canada EAGLE is a single shot, side-loading, direct fire grenade launcher that incorporates a double-action trigger and features an ambidextrous barrel and controls.  The double-action trigger allows the operator to safely re-strike a misfired...




					www.coltcanada.com


----------



## Skysix

Colin Parkinson said:


> They are to busy on harassment , diversity training, button and bows and fancy Mess dinners.


Shades of this....









						Russia’s Potemkin Army - Modern War Institute
					

On the eve of war in Ukraine, US officials told Newsweek they believed Kyiv would fall within days of a Russian invasion, and the country’s resistance neutralized soon thereafter. They were so convinced of this outcome that they even offered to evacuate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy...




					mwi.usma.edu


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> Speaking of weapons we need ... Not this one exactly, but more like a 40mm version of the Tavor TS12. This one makes staying low very problematic. A TS40 could be a heavy but useful grenadier's weapon.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New Automatic Grenade Launcher Is Designed Like An Assault Rifle
> 
> 
> The Squad Support Weapon 40 is magazine-fed and can rapidly fire 40mm medium-velocity grenades with high accuracy, and yes, it looks like its from a sci-fi action flick.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedrive.com



Could it manage a side feed like a Hotchkiss or a Sterling?


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> Could it manage a side feed like a Hotchkiss or a Sterling?


Mmmmmmmm.  Stirling..... (Homer Simpson voice)


----------



## FJAG

> Putin 'purges hero paratrooper commander' amid claim casualties at 50k
> 
> 
> Ukrainian sources say Putin has axed Andrey Serdyukov (pictured) and replaced him with Colonel-General Mikhail Teplinsky, 53, current chief of staff of the Central Military District.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.dailymail.co.uk



🍻


----------



## Skysix

Putin 'purges hero paratrooper commander' amid claim casualties at 50k
					

Ukrainian sources say Putin has axed Andrey Serdyukov (pictured) and replaced him with Colonel-General Mikhail Teplinsky, 53, current chief of staff of the Central Military District.




					www.dailymail.co.uk
				




"Feels" legit. Time will tell.

50k KIA or total KIA+WIA?


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

FJAG said:


> 🍻


I'd have definitionally lost the bet I would have made when all this started that Putin would be dead by now.....


----------



## Skysix

"The leaders of Germany, France, Italy, and Romania committed to Ukrainian officials that the West would not demand any concessions from Ukraine to appease Russia and will support Ukraine to the end of the war during a visit to Kyiv on June 16."

From Institute for the Study of War
on June 16th.


More than Canada has done...


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1538335853860118528


----------



## MilEME09

Skysix said:


> Putin 'purges hero paratrooper commander' amid claim casualties at 50k
> 
> 
> Ukrainian sources say Putin has axed Andrey Serdyukov (pictured) and replaced him with Colonel-General Mikhail Teplinsky, 53, current chief of staff of the Central Military District.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.dailymail.co.uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> "Feels" legit. Time will tell.
> 
> 50k KIA or total KIA+WIA?


This source is saying Russian KIA is approximately 37.5k, I would assume WIA would be 2.5 to 3 times that.  Which means at the high end 150k total KIA+WIA

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1538176483264438272


----------



## Skysix

MilEME09 said:


> This source is saying Russian KIA is approximately 37.5k, I would assume WIA would be 2.5 to 3 times that.  Which means at the high end 150k total KIA+WIA
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1538176483264438272


I assume this number does not count the Chechens, Wagners and fighters from Luhansk and Donetsk..., so the body count on Russian side might be much much higher


----------



## Skysix

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1538295495189094400


----------



## MilEME09

Skysix said:


> I assume this number does not count the Chechens, Wagners and fighters from Luhansk and Donetsk..., so the body count on Russian side might be much much higher


The ombudsman in Luhansk released numbers awhile ago suggesting casualties were about 50% or 5k


----------



## suffolkowner

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1537872468714692609
Theres this claim on Ukrainian losses

I'm trying to think of what recent war would compare to this from a losses standpoint? Iran-Iraq?


----------



## Skysix

suffolkowner said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1537872468714692609
> Theres this claim on Ukrainian losses
> 
> I'm trying to think of what recent war would compare to this from a losses standpoint? Iran-Iraq?


Korea. Maybe.


----------



## daftandbarmy

suffolkowner said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1537872468714692609
> Theres this claim on Ukrainian losses
> 
> I'm trying to think of what recent war would compare to this from a losses standpoint? Iran-Iraq?



It's not over yet.

This will be without precedent since WW2, I'm guessing.


----------



## MilEME09

daftandbarmy said:


> It's not over yet.
> 
> This will be without precedent since WW2, I'm guessing.


Difference is the west can replace Ukrainian equipment losses if we band together, Russia, with sanctions biting cannot


----------



## Skysix

I am far from the sharpest tool in the shed, but if I was China, the best time to attack Taiwan would be late this fall/early winter when the west is still occupied with degrading Russia and before it (maybe) manages to remilitarise its industrial complex to replenish depleted (and woefuly inadequate even in Jan 2022) warstocks. Western war fatigue will also help them (we hate being inconvenienced by offshore wars) as will recently mothballed platforms (unless that trend is stopped) and manpower shortages.









						A Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Could Unleash an Economic Disaster
					

If China did invade Taiwan the world would feel a massive economic jolt from the loss of semiconductors to a potential war with the U.S.




					www.19fortyfive.com


----------



## Skysix

Leadership.

No freshly issued fatigues or trying to look like one of the troops. No fancy jackets or clothes. No pretentious settings. Just a guy meeting his people where they work.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Skysix said:


> Leadership.
> 
> No freshly issued fatigues or trying to look like one of the troops. No fancy jackets or clothes. No pretentious settings. Just a guy meeting his people where they work.
> View attachment 71489



No cuffs to roll... how about that?


----------



## Dana381

A man who undestands People, A man who understands his people and A man brave enough to stand up to bullies! where can we get one of those? Hell right now I would settle for one of the three!


----------



## KevinB

Skysix said:


> I am far from the sharpest tool in the shed, but if I was China, the best time to attack Taiwan would be late this fall/early winter when the west is still occupied with degrading Russia and before it (maybe) manages to remilitarise its industrial complex to replenish depleted (and woefuly inadequate even in Jan 2022) warstocks. Western war fatigue will also help them (we hate being inconvenienced by offshore wars) as will recently mothballed platforms (unless that trend is stopped) and manpower shortages.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Could Unleash an Economic Disaster
> 
> 
> If China did invade Taiwan the world would feel a massive economic jolt from the loss of semiconductors to a potential war with the U.S.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.19fortyfive.com


China has seen was a small group of dedicated people so defending their homeland with Western support.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Skysix said:


> Leadership.
> 
> No freshly issued fatigues or trying to look like one of the troops. No fancy jackets or clothes. No pretentious settings. Just a guy meeting his people where they work.
> View attachment 71489


He seems to be doing the right things, but their info-machine is also quite strong in making sure folks see these things well, too.


----------



## Ostrozac

Spencer100 said:


> Harpoons are being used now.  Looks like they did hit but did damage with shrapnel.  Did the CIWS hit the missiles first?


A project 22870 rescue tug doesn’t normally mount any armament, so it wouldn’t have a CIWS. Press releases have suggested that the Vasily Bekh was carrying an SA-15 Gauntlet air defence vehicle on the upper deck for self defence, but an SA-15 is missile only, no guns.


----------



## RangerRay

Skysix said:


> I am far from the sharpest tool in the shed, but if I was China, the best time to attack Taiwan would be late this fall/early winter when the west is still occupied with degrading Russia and before it (maybe) manages to remilitarise its industrial complex to replenish depleted (and woefuly inadequate even in Jan 2022) warstocks. Western war fatigue will also help them (we hate being inconvenienced by offshore wars) as will recently mothballed platforms (unless that trend is stopped) and manpower shortages.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Could Unleash an Economic Disaster
> 
> 
> If China did invade Taiwan the world would feel a massive economic jolt from the loss of semiconductors to a potential war with the U.S.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.19fortyfive.com


I think they would be stupid to do that now.  Taiwan is an island fortress compared to Ukraine and the people are just as determined to remain independent.  Contested amphibious assaults are one of the most difficult operations to execute for experienced militaries.

Has China engaged in a proper war since trying to invade Vietnam in the '70s?


----------



## Good2Golf

daftandbarmy said:


> No cuffs to roll... how about that?


But he he’d ‘em, he’d roll ‘em! 👍🏼


----------



## The Bread Guy

From the "child throwing himself at the mercy of the court because he's an orphan after killing both his parents" file, this from RUS state media ....

Any Russians need "protecting" in Lithuania these days?


----------



## Kirkhill

Good2Golf said:


> But he he’d ‘em, he’d roll ‘em! 👍🏼



Necessity is a mother...


----------



## McG

Seeing lots of social media posts repeating that UK MoD has declared Russia is suffering from a lot of desertions. Actual statement says both sides are experiencing desertion, but there are factors that make this more acute for Russia.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1538401448404434944
I wonder how much (if at all) desertion/defection contribute to numbers that are reported as losses for either side.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Cue Eco-warriors' heads everywhere exploding in 3-2-1...


Berlin to restart coal-fired plants and auction gas to reduce consumption​

BERLIN—Germany will restart coal-fired power plants and offer incentives for companies to curb natural gas consumption, marking a new step in the economic war between Europe and Russia.

Berlin unveiled the measures Sunday after Russia cut gas supplies to Europe last week as it punched back against European sanctions and military support for Ukraine.

The steps, part of a broader strategy initiated after the invasion of Ukraine, aim to reduce gas consumption and divert gas deliveries to storage facilities to ensure that the country has enough reserves to get through the winter.

Russia’s gradual cutting of gas supplies has raised the specter of a potential fuel shortage if Europe goes into winter with less-than-full stowages. It has also raised prices, putting additional pressure on economies that are already struggling with high inflation and rising borrowing costs and face the prospect of a recession.

Nord Stream, the main channel for Russian fuel to Europe, has reported a sharp drop in gas supplies.


“It is obviously Putin’s strategy to rattle us, drive up prices and divide us. We won’t allow that. We will defend ourselves resolutely, precisely and thoughtfully,” said Robert Habeck, Germany’s economy minister.

 Gazprom has blamed the shortfall on missing turbine parts that were stuck in Canada due to sanctions. European officials and analysts dismissed the explanation. 

Germany imports about 35% of its natural gas from Russia, down from 55% before the war, and uses most of it for heating and manufacturing, according to German government estimates. Last year, power generation using natural gas accounted for about 15% of total public electricity in Germany, Mr. Habeck said, adding that the share of gas in power production has likely fallen this year.

To accelerate the decline of gas in the power mix, Mr. Habeck outlined a number of steps the government was taking to reduce reliance on gas and build up stores for the coming winter.

In a U-turn for a leader of the environmentalist Green Party, which has campaigned to reduce fossil-fuel use, Mr. Habeck said the government would empower utility companies to extend the use of coal-fired power plants.

This would ensure that Germany has an alternative source of energy but would further delay the country’s efforts to slash carbon emissions.

“This is bitter,” Mr. Habeck said of the need to rely on coal. “But in this situation, it is necessary to reduce gas consumption. Gas stores must be full by winter. That has the highest priority.”

The legislation affecting the use of coal is expected to be approved on July 8 in the Bundesrat, the upper house of parliament, Mr. Habeck said. The measure expires on March 31, 2024, by which time the government hopes to have created a sustainable alternative to Russian gas.

Mr. Habeck also said the government would introduce an auction system that would motivate industry to reduce consumption.

The government released no details about how the auction would work, but Mr. Habeck said it would begin this summer.

Germany Steps Up Measures to Conserve Gas as Russia Slows Supply to Europe


----------



## brihard

daftandbarmy said:


> Cue Eco-warriors' heads everywhere exploding in 3-2-1...
> 
> 
> Berlin to restart coal-fired plants and auction gas to reduce consumption​
> 
> BERLIN—Germany will restart coal-fired power plants and offer incentives for companies to curb natural gas consumption, marking a new step in the economic war between Europe and Russia.
> 
> Berlin unveiled the measures Sunday after Russia cut gas supplies to Europe last week as it punched back against European sanctions and military support for Ukraine.
> 
> The steps, part of a broader strategy initiated after the invasion of Ukraine, aim to reduce gas consumption and divert gas deliveries to storage facilities to ensure that the country has enough reserves to get through the winter.
> 
> Russia’s gradual cutting of gas supplies has raised the specter of a potential fuel shortage if Europe goes into winter with less-than-full stowages. It has also raised prices, putting additional pressure on economies that are already struggling with high inflation and rising borrowing costs and face the prospect of a recession.
> 
> Nord Stream, the main channel for Russian fuel to Europe, has reported a sharp drop in gas supplies.
> 
> 
> “It is obviously Putin’s strategy to rattle us, drive up prices and divide us. We won’t allow that. We will defend ourselves resolutely, precisely and thoughtfully,” said Robert Habeck, Germany’s economy minister.
> 
> Gazprom has blamed the shortfall on missing turbine parts that were stuck in Canada due to sanctions. European officials and analysts dismissed the explanation.
> 
> Germany imports about 35% of its natural gas from Russia, down from 55% before the war, and uses most of it for heating and manufacturing, according to German government estimates. Last year, power generation using natural gas accounted for about 15% of total public electricity in Germany, Mr. Habeck said, adding that the share of gas in power production has likely fallen this year.
> 
> To accelerate the decline of gas in the power mix, Mr. Habeck outlined a number of steps the government was taking to reduce reliance on gas and build up stores for the coming winter.
> 
> In a U-turn for a leader of the environmentalist Green Party, which has campaigned to reduce fossil-fuel use, Mr. Habeck said the government would empower utility companies to extend the use of coal-fired power plants.
> 
> This would ensure that Germany has an alternative source of energy but would further delay the country’s efforts to slash carbon emissions.
> 
> “This is bitter,” Mr. Habeck said of the need to rely on coal. “But in this situation, it is necessary to reduce gas consumption. Gas stores must be full by winter. That has the highest priority.”
> 
> The legislation affecting the use of coal is expected to be approved on July 8 in the Bundesrat, the upper house of parliament, Mr. Habeck said. The measure expires on March 31, 2024, by which time the government hopes to have created a sustainable alternative to Russian gas.
> 
> Mr. Habeck also said the government would introduce an auction system that would motivate industry to reduce consumption.
> 
> The government released no details about how the auction would work, but Mr. Habeck said it would begin this summer.
> 
> Germany Steps Up Measures to Conserve Gas as Russia Slows Supply to Europe


FFS. You know what gets you off coal and Russian gas? Modern nuclear.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1538562790713135106


----------



## Colin Parkinson

brihard said:


> FFS. You know what gets you off coal and Russian gas? Modern nuclear.


SMR's for the win


----------



## MilEME09

C7A1s spotted in Ukraine 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1538570430549831682


----------



## Jarnhamar

MilEME09 said:


> C7A1s spotted in Ukraine
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1538570430549831682


Nice musket.


----------



## Kirkhill

brihard said:


> FFS. You know what gets you off coal and Russian gas? Modern nuclear.


Tru dat.  But that will take a minute.  The Germans have their own fuel (brown coal and anthracite) and their own mothballed power plants.

With that Green party, and its pragmatism, and its support for weapons to Ukraine, I would vote Green.  I don't dislike environmentalism.  I dislike environmentalists - or at least the fanatical types.


----------



## Kirkhill

Colin Parkinson said:


> SMR's for the win



Danger Will Robinson! Tanget Alert!


----------



## Jarnhamar

Refugee advocates worried about impact of fighter jet flyby at Redblacks game​


> It took Olha Kinash about a month to get used to planes flying overhead again.
> 
> Kinash was in Kyiv when Russian forces invaded Ukraine and began bombarding the nation's capital. She and her family fled as fast as they could, settling in Ottawa in late April.
> 
> She's now one of several people voicing concerns about the triggering effects of tonight's fighter jet flyby ahead of the Ottawa Redblacks' home opener.


----------



## brihard

Colin Parkinson said:


> SMR's for the win


Or just go proper grid scale,


Jarnhamar said:


> Refugee advocates worried about impact of fighter jet flyby at Redblacks game​


Sure, I’ll buy that. Tactical jets at low altitude might bring up some really uncomfortable stuff for people who lost friends, family and homes to bombings.


----------



## MilEME09

Jarnhamar said:


> Refugee advocates worried about impact of fighter jet flyby at Redblacks game​


So someone who never was there is concerned it will trigger people, ill buy it but at the same time, let's ask the people who were in Ukraine if it is okay, you know the people who actually have been effected by the war. Crazy thought I know


----------



## Kat Stevens

daftandbarmy said:


> Cue Eco-warriors' heads everywhere exploding in 3-2-1...
> 
> 
> Berlin to restart coal-fired plants and auction gas to reduce consumption​
> 
> BERLIN—Germany will restart coal-fired power plants and offer incentives for companies to curb natural gas consumption, marking a new step in the economic war between Europe and Russia.
> 
> Berlin unveiled the measures Sunday after Russia cut gas supplies to Europe last week as it punched back against European sanctions and military support for Ukraine.
> 
> The steps, part of a broader strategy initiated after the invasion of Ukraine, aim to reduce gas consumption and divert gas deliveries to storage facilities to ensure that the country has enough reserves to get through the winter.
> 
> Russia’s gradual cutting of gas supplies has raised the specter of a potential fuel shortage if Europe goes into winter with less-than-full stowages. It has also raised prices, putting additional pressure on economies that are already struggling with high inflation and rising borrowing costs and face the prospect of a recession.
> 
> Nord Stream, the main channel for Russian fuel to Europe, has reported a sharp drop in gas supplies.
> 
> 
> “It is obviously Putin’s strategy to rattle us, drive up prices and divide us. We won’t allow that. We will defend ourselves resolutely, precisely and thoughtfully,” said Robert Habeck, Germany’s economy minister.
> 
> Gazprom has blamed the shortfall on missing turbine parts that were stuck in Canada due to sanctions. European officials and analysts dismissed the explanation.
> 
> Germany imports about 35% of its natural gas from Russia, down from 55% before the war, and uses most of it for heating and manufacturing, according to German government estimates. Last year, power generation using natural gas accounted for about 15% of total public electricity in Germany, Mr. Habeck said, adding that the share of gas in power production has likely fallen this year.
> 
> To accelerate the decline of gas in the power mix, Mr. Habeck outlined a number of steps the government was taking to reduce reliance on gas and build up stores for the coming winter.
> 
> In a U-turn for a leader of the environmentalist Green Party, which has campaigned to reduce fossil-fuel use, Mr. Habeck said the government would empower utility companies to extend the use of coal-fired power plants.
> 
> This would ensure that Germany has an alternative source of energy but would further delay the country’s efforts to slash carbon emissions.
> 
> “This is bitter,” Mr. Habeck said of the need to rely on coal. “But in this situation, it is necessary to reduce gas consumption. Gas stores must be full by winter. That has the highest priority.”
> 
> The legislation affecting the use of coal is expected to be approved on July 8 in the Bundesrat, the upper house of parliament, Mr. Habeck said. The measure expires on March 31, 2024, by which time the government hopes to have created a sustainable alternative to Russian gas.
> 
> Mr. Habeck also said the government would introduce an auction system that would motivate industry to reduce consumption.
> 
> The government released no details about how the auction would work, but Mr. Habeck said it would begin this summer.
> 
> Germany Steps Up Measures to Conserve Gas as Russia Slows Supply to Europe


Where did all the North Sea Gas go?


----------



## Jarnhamar

brihard said:


> Sure, I’ll buy that. Tactical jets at low altitude might bring up some really uncomfortable stuff for people who lost friends, family and homes to bombings.



Quite possible. Should we cancel stuff like fly pasts or other displays? Personally I don't think so.


----------



## Kirkhill

Kat Stevens said:


> Where did all the North Sea Gas go?



Its still there.  Norway charges more than Russia.


----------



## Kat Stevens

Kirkhill said:


> Its still there.  Norway charges more than Russia.


GB owns a pretty fair chunk of that pie, if I recall.


----------



## Kirkhill

Kat Stevens said:


> GB owns a pretty fair chunk of that pie, if I recall.


And they, and the Dutch, charge Norwegian prices.


----------



## KevinB

Jarnhamar said:


> Quite possible. Should we cancel stuff like fly pasts or other displays? Personally I don't think so.


No one seems to care about veterans feeling on other issues that might cause issues…

Queue Omar Khadr and the fact the Cdn government paid him… 
   I think the Cdn Gov owes me 10m for the pain and suffering off their clinical stupidity


----------



## Kat Stevens

Kirkhill said:


> And they, and the Dutch, charge Norwegian prices.


Somebody smarter than me should be able to smell an opportunity to squeeze Vlad out of the game and sell a pile of gas our comrades in Europeness.


----------



## Kirkhill

Kat Stevens said:


> Somebody smarter than me should be able to smell an opportunity to squeeze Vlad out of the game and sell a pile of gas our comrades in Europeness.



Meanwhile the UK is planning the world's longest extension cable from Morocco.









						The world's longest subsea cable will send clean energy from Morocco to the UK [update]
					

A 10.5 GW solar and wind farm is going to be built in Morocco, and it's eventually going to power 7 million homes in the UK.




					electrek.co


----------



## Kirkhill

Back to Ukraine though.

Gleaned from Reddit.  What to do with your old Rifle Grenades, a Radio Shack UAS and a 3D printer.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vfq235


----------



## Kirkhill

Meanwhile, from SkyNews via Reddit



> British troops must prepare "to fight in Europe once again" as the war in Ukraine continues, the new head of the Army has warned.
> 
> General Sir Patrick Sanders took over from General Sir Mark Carleton Smith on Monday and wrote to his charges about the challenges they face.
> 
> "*Russia's* invasion of Ukraine underlines our core purpose to protect the UK by being ready to fight and win wars on land," he said.
> 
> *Russian troops face armed stand-off with officers - live updates*
> 
> "There is now a burning imperative to forge an Army capable of fighting alongside our allies and defeating Russia in battle.
> 
> "We are the generation that must prepare the Army to fight in Europe once again."
> 
> He added that he is the first Chief of the General Staff since 1941 to take command of the Army "in the shadow of a land war in Europe involving a continental power".
> 
> Both the Prime Minister and NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg have warned to be prepared to offer Ukraine its support long term.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Image:General Sir Patrick Sanders
> 
> His comments follow Boris Johnson's recent trip to Kyiv to meet with Ukraine's president, after which the Prime Minister said Vladimir Putin's invasion is "entering a new phase".
> 
> Writing in The Times, Mr Johnson said: "I am afraid that we need to steel ourselves for a long war, as Putin resorts to a campaign of attrition, trying to grind down Ukraine by sheer brutality.
> 
> "Everything will depend on whether Ukraine can strengthen its ability to defend its soil faster than Russia can renew its capacity to attack," he added.
> 
> "Our task is to enlist time on Ukraine's side."
> 
> The Government set out plans last year to reduce the size of the regular Army, lowering the target size from 82,000 personnel to 72,500 by 2025.
> 
> When the announcement was made in March 2021, the Army had around 76,500 regular soldiers.




__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vg0if1


----------



## Kirkhill

And another Reddit morsel.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1538526439103922176


----------



## Kirkhill

And the last one for today - Why they fight!


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1538318573646520321

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vfpge0


----------



## Skysix

Another 'technical' from Ukraine. A S8 80mm rocket pod from a helicopter or SU25 adapted into a poor mans MLRS


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kat Stevens said:


> Where did all the North Sea Gas go?



There are still a few hundred billion barrels there, but extraction is relatively costly compared to, for example, Persian Gulf sources:









						Offshore Titans: the North Sea's biggest oil fields
					

Eight of the biggest oil fields in the North Sea are on the Norwegian continental shelf with the remaining two perched on the UK shelf. Offshore-technology lists the biggest oil fields in the North Sea based on the latest available estimate of recoverable reserves.




					www.offshore-technology.com
				




There were moves to end production, on the UK side anyways, to meet climate targets. My guess is that they will be kicking those to the curb now that there's a (energy independence from Russia) war on


----------



## The Bread Guy

Does this sound familiar to anyone who's followed how things were done in USSR 1.0?








						Anti-War Russians Face Fines, Jail, Psychiatric Confinement As Punishment
					

A Russian woman distraught about the Ukraine war posted a photograph showing Putin engulfed in flame and said he should “burn in hell.” She’s now facing fines and possible psychiatric confinement.




					www.rferl.org


----------



## Kat Stevens

The Bread Guy said:


> Does this sound familiar to anyone who's followed how things were done in USSR 1.0?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Anti-War Russians Face Fines, Jail, Psychiatric Confinement As Punishment
> 
> 
> A Russian woman distraught about the Ukraine war posted a photograph showing Putin engulfed in flame and said he should “burn in hell.” She’s now facing fines and possible psychiatric confinement.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rferl.org


Didn't old SSR just do group photos? You know the ones, "kneel down in front of the ditch, smile and wait for the flash"?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kat Stevens said:


> Didn't old SSR just do group photos? You know the ones, "kneel down in front of the ditch, smile and wait for the flash"?


That was the early version of USSR 1.0 - where "Ukrainian war" read "Soviet war against Afghanistan," I think you could interchange the process.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Ukraine's parliament has passed a law banning the import of Russian/Belarusian books and barring playing of some Russian tunes in public.  The parliament's info-machine is pretty blunt on Telegram about this ....


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> There are still a few hundred billion barrels there, but extraction is relatively costly compared to, for example, Persian Gulf sources:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Offshore Titans: the North Sea's biggest oil fields
> 
> 
> Eight of the biggest oil fields in the North Sea are on the Norwegian continental shelf with the remaining two perched on the UK shelf. Offshore-technology lists the biggest oil fields in the North Sea based on the latest available estimate of recoverable reserves.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.offshore-technology.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There were moves to end production, on the UK side anyways, to meet climate targets. My guess is that they will be kicking those to the curb now that there's a (energy independence from Russia) war on



Problem solved   









						Natural gas to be classed as ‘green’ investment to boost North Sea
					

Proposals to bolster UK energy security by drilling for the fossil fuel risk angering climate change activists




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				






> Natural gas to be classed as ‘green’ investment to boost North Sea​Proposals to bolster UK energy security by drilling for the fossil fuel risk angering climate change activists
> 
> ByRachel Millard13 May 2022 • 7:56pm
> 
> Natural gas is to be classed as a “green” investment by Kwasi Kwarteng as the Government scrambles to increase North Sea production in a move that risks inflaming tensions with climate campaigners.
> Mr Kwarteng, the Business Secretary, is understood to be keen that drilling for the fossil fuel is listed as “environmentally sustainable” in a new classification of activities being drawn up by his department and the Treasury to guide investors.
> It comes amid concerns that banks and pension funds are ditching natural gas projects because of the implications for climate change.
> Producing and burning natural gas for power production and heating is a vast source of carbon dioxide emissions.
> However, gas is touted by many experts as a “transition fuel” towards lower carbon economies as it emits less than coal and oil which it can replace.
> The European Union classed certain natural gas projects as green investments last year on that basis, despite strong opposition from critics concerned about climate goals.
> 
> A Whitehall source said: “Kwasi considers natural gas a transition fuel, and he accepts the reality of the situation which is that we will need gas for decades to come and we need more developments in the North Sea.
> “A lot of investors with ESG [environmental, social and governance] targets are divesting from fossil fuels - we don’t want that to be done at the detriment of natural gas.”
> Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, announced in November 2020 that the Government will establish a “Green Taxonomy”, to establish which sectors are contributing to the UK’s climate goals so that investors who want to invest in the green shift can spend accordingly.
> Britain has mostly switched away from coal-fired power plants, with gas providing almost 40pc of annual electricity compared to less than 2pc from coal, and almost a quarter coming from wind turbines.
> Gas is the UK's biggest power source
> 
> 
> The UK has strict carbon emission reduction targets but natural gas is likely to have an ongoing role in electricity production when coupled with technology to strip out carbon emissions.
> 
> Gas-fired boilers that heat most UK homes are on course to be replaced, either with hydrogen - which can itself be produced from natural gas - or with heat pumps, which require electricity.
> 
> A global shortage of natural gas as countries re-opened from the pandemic last year helped push wholesale prices to record highs even before Russia’s war on Ukraine further disrupted markets.
> 
> The surge has already triggered a 54pc rise in the energy price cap, pushing up average British household energy bills to £1,971, with a further rise likely in October when the price cap is reset.
> 
> Plans for the new “green taxonomy” are expected to be finalised in autumn, with the exact criteria for natural gas projects still being discussed. Nuclear power developers are also pushing for inclusion, with the Government relying on greater investment in nuclear power as a key part of its energy security strategy.
> 
> The Government has introduced a new financing mechanism for nuclear power plants which it is hoped will encourage investment and bring down financing costs by allowing investors to recoup money earlier from consumer bills.
> 
> The Government said this may add less than £1 per month on average during the full construction phase of the project.


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> Problem solved
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Natural gas to be classed as ‘green’ investment to boost North Sea
> 
> 
> Proposals to bolster UK energy security by drilling for the fossil fuel risk angering climate change activists
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.telegraph.co.uk


Well, it IS more "Green" and less environmentally destructive than total land war is..


----------



## CBH99

Kirkhill said:


> Russia has ‘strategically lost’ war, says UK defence chief, as Lavrov says Moscow unashamed
> 
> 
> ‘Russia is not squeaky clean. Russia is what it is’ – Kremlin foreign minister’s response to UN report claiming atrocities in Ukraine
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com


I’d argue that if a BTG can only muster 5% of it’s personnel, it is no longer a BTG…

Someone has to be alive to tell the younger generation war stories.  

But a BTG it is not...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Stand by for another Ukrainian stamp issue ...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1537109091566333953


----------



## MilEME09

CBH99 said:


> I’d argue that if a BTG can only muster 5% of it’s personnel, it is no longer a BTG…
> 
> Someone has to be alive to tell the younger generation war stories.
> 
> But a BTG it is not...


It's like our reserve units, call a platoon a battalion........_cries internally_


----------



## The Bread Guy

New target! (via RUS independent media)








						Ukraine Strikes Offshore Gas Drilling Rig – Crimean Official - The Moscow Times
					

Updated at 4:15 p.m. on June 22 to clarify that a gas drilling platform, not an oil drilling platform, was struck.




					www.themoscowtimes.com
				



Hittin' 'em someplace else it'll hurt in the pocketbook?


----------



## GR66

MilEME09 said:


> It's like our reserve units, call a platoon a battalion........_cries internally_


You mean a "Platoon Tactical Group" (PTG)


----------



## Eaglelord17

MilEME09 said:


> It's like our reserve units, call a platoon a battalion........_cries internally_


Hey that Platoon isn’t looking so bad now on a peer to peer level. We are practically fully manned in comparison to the Russians.


----------



## YZT580

The Bread Guy said:


> New target! (via RUS independent media)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine Strikes Offshore Gas Drilling Rig – Crimean Official - The Moscow Times
> 
> 
> Updated at 4:15 p.m. on June 22 to clarify that a gas drilling platform, not an oil drilling platform, was struck.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.themoscowtimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hittin' 'em someplace else it'll hurt in the pocketbook?


so targeting grain silos, stealing the contents of others, targeting mills and factories is OK but only if the munitions are moving east to west.  Don't ever fight back.


----------



## Spencer100

__





						Ukrainian troops are deserting battle and Russian troops have 'troubled' morale as the war is expected to last years, NATO chief says
					





					www.msn.com
				




leaving on both sides


----------



## ueo

MilEME09 said:


> So someone who never was there is concerned it will trigger people, ill buy it but at the same time, let's ask the people who were in Ukraine if it is okay, you know the people who actually have been effected by the war. Crazy thought I know


Isn't this the position of many Torontoites supporting the Airshow at the CNE a while back?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Spencer100 said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian troops are deserting battle and Russian troops have 'troubled' morale as the war is expected to last years, NATO chief says
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.msn.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> leaving on both sides



And here we have a good reminder about what the Military Police were _really _created for: to arrest deserters and shirkers to keep the meat close to the grinder


----------



## Spencer100

daftandbarmy said:


> And here we have a good reminder about what the Military Police were _really _created for: to arrest deserters and shirkers to keep the meat close to the grinder


Putin needs put some new ur old orders in place.......I know I have seen someplace....hmmmm oh here they are.

Order 270 oh and this one should do the trick Order 221


----------



## Skysix

Incredible amount of ingenuity happening in Ukraine. Everything from 3d printing bomblet fins to MLRS technicals

MacGyver Lives!



			https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/06/20/it-team-converts-used-e-cigarettes-into-power-banks-for-ukrainian-soldiers/
		










						How Ukrainian SOF Is Building Drone Munitions
					

Ukrainian special operations forces (SSO) demonstrate how they modify VOG-17M 30mm projectile grenades and Soviet RKG-3 AT hand grenades into drone munitions.




					funker530.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

No Infantry, no Tanks....


----------



## Skysix

If this is Putin's plan, the west needs to eliminate him sooner than nature will and not merely degrade SU 2.0 but make the thought of this path unacceptable to the population so new leaders do not try to continue it.

Russian oil and gas refineries /production / distribution seem like legit military targets for HIMARS/Harpoons etc to me. Although I would rather have oilspills on Russian land than in the Black Sea









						Russia Has a Plan for Ukraine. It Looks Like Chechnya.
					

Putin’s template is simple: flatten cities, install satraps, rule by fear.




					www.theatlantic.com


----------



## Skysix

daftandbarmy said:


> No Infantry, no Tanks....



No industry no weapons also


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> So someone who never was there is concerned it will trigger people, ill buy it but at the same time, let's ask the people who were in Ukraine if it is okay, you know the people who actually have been effected by the war. Crazy thought I know


From the first few lines of the article ...


> It took Olha Kinash about a month to get used to planes flying overhead again.
> 
> *Kinash was in Kyiv when Russian forces invaded Ukraine and began bombarding the nation's capital.* She and her family fled as fast as they could, settling in Ottawa in late April.
> 
> She's now one of several people voicing concerns about the triggering effects of tonight's fighter jet flyby ahead of the Ottawa Redblacks' home opener.
> 
> "I would say I'm pretty self-confident ... but it took me over a month to realize I'm safe now and nobody will bomb me," said Kinash, who now lives not far from the airport ...


Been there?  Check.

I don't think it may be as simple as some in the past who, when discussing refugees flinching at planes flying overhead, offer up the "just tell them these are the good guys" solution.


----------



## The Bread Guy

The Bread Guy said:


> We're number one in the Americas (for "foreign mercs" in UKR), according to RUS MoD's info-machine (archived link) - highlights mine ...
> 
> Safe PDF of statement (in official English) also attached


Remember where you read it first  








						Russia claims 162 Canadian foreign fighters have been killed in Ukraine. There’s no evidence to back that up
					

‘I’ve heard of wounded Canadians but [none killed in action] as of yet,’ says Jordan Mullins, who is recuperating at home after being hit by shrapnel while fighting in Ukraine




					www.theglobeandmail.com


----------



## MilEME09

For those tracking, Ukraine hit an gas extraction platform in the black sea, claiming the Russians had militarized it with EW gear, and AA missiles


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1539023791442886656


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> For those tracking, Ukraine hit an gas extraction platform in the black sea, claiming the Russians had militarized it with EW gear, and AA missiles
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1539023791442886656


That sad pocket on the spectrum of armament where you're short of actual deterrence yet actually invite aggression. You just become a target.

Like showing off a sword in the middle ages.


----------



## CBH99

MilEME09 said:


> It's like our reserve units, call a platoon a battalion........_cries internally_


I was actually thinking of just that when I started to write my post.

"Well it isn't a BTG if it can only muster 30-40 gu......waaaaiiiittttt a minute..."  😳


----------



## Dana381

Skysix said:


> If this is Putin's plan, the west needs to eliminate him sooner than nature will and not merely degrade SU 2.0 but make the thought of this path unacceptable to the population so new leaders do not try to continue it.
> 
> Russian oil and gas refineries /production / distribution seem like legit military targets for HIMARS/Harpoons etc to me. Although I would rather have oilspills on Russian land than in the Black Sea
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia Has a Plan for Ukraine. It Looks Like Chechnya.
> 
> 
> Putin’s template is simple: flatten cities, install satraps, rule by fear.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theatlantic.com



If the west eliminates Putin his supporters will be fired up and anti Ukraine sentiment will spread in Russia and elsewhere. If Putin is eliminated from within his legacy will be shamed and pro Ukraine sentiment will likely grow everywhere. 
Remember many Russians like putin and what he is doing by trying to restore the USSR.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Wonder if the Donetsk separatist rebels'll call _these_ guys "mercenaries"?


----------



## GR66

The Bread Guy said:


> Wonder if the Donetsk separatist rebels'll call _these_ guys "mercenaries"?
> View attachment 71527
> View attachment 71528


They won't care.  If they're captured it just means they won't have to pay them.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Labatt's doing its part ...








						Labatt Breweries Releases Chernigivske Lager for Ukraine Relief Effort
					

TORONTO, ON – Two months after it was first announced, Labatt Breweries of Canada has released a beer in partnership with other AB InBev owned breweries around the world to raise funds for war relief efforts in Ukraine.  Chernigivske (4.8% abv) is described as follows: Chernigivske is Ukraine’s m




					www.canadianbeernews.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

As some on Canada's east coast might say, USSR 2.0's _some_ mad @ Lithuania ....

_*“Lithuania hands note to Russia clarifying Kaliningrad transit” (LTU media)*_
_*“Panic Buying in Kaliningrad as Lithuania Bans Rail Cargo From Russia” (RUS independent media)*_
_*” ‘More than serious’ Russia threatens retaliatory measures after Lithuania bans transit of EU-sanctioned goods to Kaliningrad” (Meduza.io)*_
_*“Russia has called Lithuania’s restriction of rail freight transport to Kaliningrad illegal. But is it?” (Meduza.io)*_
_*“Russia warns Lithuania over Kaliningrad restrictions” (Al Jazeera)*_
_*“Russia Slams Lithuania’s ‘Hostile’ Restrictions on Rail Transit to Kaliningrad” (RUS independent media)*_
_*“Lithuanians near Kaliningrad put faith in NATO after Russia’s threats” (Reuters)*_
_*“Could Lithuania be Putin’s next target?” (The Spectator)*_
Map of the area as a reminder of who's where (source) ...
_**_


----------



## Spencer100

The Bread Guy said:


> As some on Canada's east coast might say, USSR 2.0's _some_ mad @ Lithuania ....
> 
> _*“Lithuania hands note to Russia clarifying Kaliningrad transit” (LTU media)*_
> _*“Panic Buying in Kaliningrad as Lithuania Bans Rail Cargo From Russia” (RUS independent media)*_
> _*” ‘More than serious’ Russia threatens retaliatory measures after Lithuania bans transit of EU-sanctioned goods to Kaliningrad” (Meduza.io)*_
> _*“Russia has called Lithuania’s restriction of rail freight transport to Kaliningrad illegal. But is it?” (Meduza.io)*_
> _*“Russia warns Lithuania over Kaliningrad restrictions” (Al Jazeera)*_
> _*“Russia Slams Lithuania’s ‘Hostile’ Restrictions on Rail Transit to Kaliningrad” (RUS independent media)*_
> _*“Lithuanians near Kaliningrad put faith in NATO after Russia’s threats” (Reuters)*_
> _*“Could Lithuania be Putin’s next target?” (The Spectator)*_
> Map of the area as a reminder of who's where (source) ...
> _*View attachment 71543*_


Does Russia even have much left in the bag to attack.  Yes yes they have the nukes.  But an air and ground offensive?   I don't see them having much.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Spencer100 said:


> Does Russia even have much left in the bag to attack.  Yes yes they have the nukes.  But an air and ground offensive?   I don't see them having much.


The only things that the Lithuanians are not allowing are all products/goods that are on the EU sanctions lists. They are NOT stopping the flow of people or of goods/products not on the sanctions list.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Spencer100 said:


> Does Russia even have much left in the bag to attack.  Yes yes they have the nukes.  But an air and ground offensive?   I don't see them having much.


Also, if you think that Poles are backing the Ukrainians to the hilt, I can assure you that they'd be willing to go even farther for the Lithuanians - remember, they were once called the "Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth'.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Czech_pivo said:


> Also, if you think that Poles are backing the Ukrainians to the hilt, I can assure you that they'd be willing to go even farther for the Lithuanians - remember, they were once called the "Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth'.


Hell even if the Lithuanians weren't close cousins with the Poles, I'm sure they would be leading the charge if Russia tried to start shit over Królewiec. Even before the Iron Curtain fell, there were calls for it to return to either German or Polish hands. Ever since, its been a massive security risk and thorn in the sides of the Baltic states.


----------



## MilEME09

rmc_wannabe said:


> Hell even if the Lithuanians weren't close cousins with the Poles, I'm sure they would be leading the charge if Russia tried to start shit over Królewiec. Even before the Iron Curtain fell, there were calls for it to return to either German or Polish hands. Ever since, its been a massive security risk and thorn in the sides of the Baltic states.


Time for a little green men operation?


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

daftandbarmy said:


> And here we have a good reminder about what the Military Police were _really _created for: to arrest deserters and shirkers to keep the meat close to the grinder


LOL,

I Knew a guy that served in 2REP of the FFL and he said he was pretty sure the sole purpose of the Police Militaire was to wait at the Corsican Ferry terminal and lay asswhoopings on anyone who chose to attempt to Desert.


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> LOL,
> 
> I Knew a guy that served in 2REP of the FFL and he said he was pretty sure the sole purpose of the Police Militaire was to wait at the Corsican Ferry terminal and lay asswhoopings on anyone who chose to attempt to Desert.


I thought they were officially coffee taste testers for Tim Hortons? I know a now retired MP who bragged he spent 80% of a shift in a tims parking lot


----------



## Skysix

Spencer100 said:


> Does Russia even have much left in the bag to attack.  Yes yes they have the nukes.  But an air and ground offensive?   I don't see them having much.


Hybrid war utilizing the many Russian supporters living in Latvia, the 40% of the money in the banking system that Russia controls, social media (the Russian TV channels have been blocked), Spetznatz operators and cells of Russians sabotaging the economy, infrastructure and terrorising to force a government change.


----------



## Skysix

"Militaries all over the world are closely observing the war in Ukraine, but some have proven prone to hubris — concluding that they have little to learn because they are different. It is tempting for foreign observers to attribute the failures of the Russian military to its lack of professionalism rather than the increased difficulty of waging modern war." (_Anit Mukherjee,  S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.)_


Silly question, what lessons are the "Canadian High Command" (military AND political) learning, and how are they going to change our force posture, resourcing and training?


----------



## RangerRay

Skysix said:


> "Militaries all over the world are closely observing the war in Ukraine, but some have proven prone to hubris — concluding that they have little to learn because they are different. It is tempting for foreign observers to attribute the failures of the Russian military to its lack of professionalism rather than the increased difficulty of waging modern war." (_Anit Mukherjee,  S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.)_
> 
> 
> Silly question, what lessons are the "Canadian High Command" (military AND political) learning, and how are they going to change our force posture, resourcing and training?


My little pea brain thought there were lessons to be learned from the latest war between Azerbaijan and Armenia.  I doubt anyone in any of the assorted puzzle palaces in Ottawa were paying attention.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Skysix said:


> "Militaries all over the world are closely observing the war in Ukraine, but some have proven prone to hubris — concluding that they have little to learn because they are different. It is tempting for foreign observers to attribute the failures of the Russian military to its lack of professionalism rather than the increased difficulty of waging modern war." (_Anit Mukherjee,  S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.)_
> 
> 
> Silly question, what lessons are the "Canadian High Command" (military AND political) learning, and how are they going to change our force posture, resourcing and training?


None because we are too bloody arrogant.  The CAF is completely unprepared for a conflict of this size and scale. 

We would probably suffer a few very bad defeats before we eventually sorted ourselves out.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Spencer100 said:


> Does Russia even have much left in the bag to attack.  Yes yes they have the nukes.  But an air and ground offensive?   I don't see them having much.


That's true only if USSR 2.0's _only_ response option is military.   🍿


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Spencer100 said:


> Does Russia even have much left in the bag to attack.  Yes yes they have the nukes.  But an air and ground offensive?   I don't see them having much.


Well according to Western Sources, they were supposed to run out of Missiles and Munitions less than a week after the campaign began.

Then their offensive was supposed to culminate two weeks after the shift to the Donbass began (we are on day 100 and what now?)

They are firing an estimated 50,000 shells a day with no signs of running out.  They've also conducted 2600+ missile strikes, again no signs they are running out.

I wouldn't count all your eggs before they've hatched.  The only real prediction that 100% came true was that they were going to attack, everything else has been pretty off the mark for the most part.

Besides, there are plenty of other levers Russia can pull before this would even go full kinetic.  

One thing this will do is potentially cause some civil strife in Kaliningrad.  Russia doesn't necessarily need to go after Lithuania either, there are easier targets in NATO/EU that they can poke at and still count it as "a response was sent".


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Well according to Western Sources, they were supposed to run out of Missiles and Munitions less than a week after the campaign began.
> 
> Then their offensive was supposed to culminate two weeks after the shift to the Donbass began (we are on day 100 and what now?)
> 
> They are firing an estimated 50,000 shells a day with no signs of running out.  They've also conducted 2600+ missile strikes, again no signs they are running out.


  Well their missile strikes have lessened and they are using some odd choices for missiles currently — using Air deployed Anti-ship missiles against ground targets is a sign that one may be running out of Air to Ground systems. 


Humphrey Bogart said:


> I wouldn't count all your eggs before they've hatched.  The only real prediction that 100% came true was that they were going to attack, everything else has been pretty off the mark for the most part.
> 
> Besides, there are plenty of other levers Russia can pull before this would even go full kinetic.
> 
> One thing this will do is potentially cause some civil strife in Kaliningrad.  Russia doesn't necessarily need to go after Lithuania either, there are easier targets in NATO/EU that they can poke at and still count it as "a response was sent".


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

KevinB said:


> Well their missile strikes have lessened and they are using some odd choices for missiles currently — using Air deployed Anti-ship missiles against ground targets is a sign that one may be running out of Air to Ground systems.


Maybe/maybe not.  I haven't seen much in the way of conclusive evidence of this.  They fired another large salvo of Kalibr missiles from the Black Sea just the other day as an example.

It's similar to the "Russia can't replace it's equipment losses" line trotted out by various sources, meanwhile in the real world:









						Uganda acquiring Mi-28N Havoc attack helicopter from Russia * Military Africa
					

Photographs of three Mi-28N attack helicopters spotting Ugandan markings has recently surfaced suggesting that the country is acquiring the type. Details on the Mi-28N acquisition remain sketchy, as Uganda is not known to be in negotiations with Russia for the helicopter. Three Mi-28s were seen...




					www.military.africa
				




Uganda getting brand new Mi-28s from Russia.

My take is that our assessment of Russia's ability to produce weapons and replenish stockpiles is probably off the mark.  The sanctions and pullout of Western Businesses basically allowed Russia to appropriate all Western assets in the Country.  We seized their gold/currency reserves so it's only logical they would do the same to us.  A lot of the tech we gave them was being produced locally under license.  

I could be off the mark as well, but we shall just have to wait and see in a few months.


----------



## Good2Golf

RangerRay said:


> My little pea brain thought there were lessons to be learned from the latest war between Azerbaijan and Armenia.  I doubt anyone in any of the assorted puzzle palaces in Ottawa were paying attention.


RR, you would think, and they actually were paying attention, but not in the way you thought.

The Canadian government got all righteous about how the Azeris were beating up unfairly on the Armenians and restricted Canadian (American subsidiary) technology from being used in the conflict, doubling down in an earlier technology transfer suspension against Bayraktar.





__





						Canada Blocks Defense Exports To Turkey Over Transfer Of Drones To Azerbaijan
					






					www.rferl.org
				




So Bayraktar then transitions to indigenous technology (and some Canadian industry goes out of business…)



			https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5996570
		










						Canadian Supplier to Turkey’s Bayraktar Drones Goes Bankrupt Following Embargo
					

Canadian firm Telemus Systems Inc. has gone bankrupt after it had to stop supplying military equipment components to Turkey following the Ottawa’s embargo on defense exports to Turkey. Canada suspended export licenses to Turkey in 2019 during Turkish military incursion into northeastern Syria...




					www.defenseworld.net
				




Then Russia invades Ukraine and UAF Bayraktar TB2 UAVs (some with legacy CAN tech, some with newer replacement TUR tech) figure prominently in actions countering RUAF incursion, and Canada reverses it’s tech restriction and allows CAN tech to be exported again, and crows about it in political systems adding it to the “We support Ukraine!” mantra.









						Canada sending drone surveillance cameras to Ukraine
					

Reversing a position adopted last year, Canada is sending cutting-edge surveillance cameras for use on Turkish drones – this time by Ukraine.




					dronedj.com


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Good2Golf said:


> RR, you would think, and they actually were paying attention, but not in the way you thought.
> 
> The Canadian government got all righteous about how the Azeris were beating up unfairly on the Armenians and restricted Canadian (American subsidiary) technology from being used in the conflict, doubling down in an earlier technology transfer suspension against Bayraktar.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada Blocks Defense Exports To Turkey Over Transfer Of Drones To Azerbaijan
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rferl.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So Bayraktar then transitions to indigenous technology (and some Canadian industry goes out of business…)
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5996570
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canadian Supplier to Turkey’s Bayraktar Drones Goes Bankrupt Following Embargo
> 
> 
> Canadian firm Telemus Systems Inc. has gone bankrupt after it had to stop supplying military equipment components to Turkey following the Ottawa’s embargo on defense exports to Turkey. Canada suspended export licenses to Turkey in 2019 during Turkish military incursion into northeastern Syria...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.defenseworld.net
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Then Russia invades Ukraine and UAF Bayraktar TB2 UAVs (some with legacy CAN tech, some with newer replacement TUR tech) figure prominently in actions countering RUAF incursion, and Canada reverses it’s tech restriction and allows CAN tech to be exported again, and crows about it in political systems adding it to the “We support Ukraine!” mantra.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada sending drone surveillance cameras to Ukraine
> 
> 
> Reversing a position adopted last year, Canada is sending cutting-edge surveillance cameras for use on Turkish drones – this time by Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> dronedj.com


And this is a great example of why sanctions don't really work the way we think they do.  Turkey produces Canadian tech under license, we sanction it and stop it.  Turkey reverse engineers it and then says it's slightly different and newer "Turkish" tech.

Russia no longer has McDonalds, but..... it has all the things to make McDonalds:









						The new McDonald's in Russia sold 120,000 burgers on its opening day, surpassing daily records in its past life, CEO says
					

"We have never seen such daily turnover in the whole time McDonald's has worked in Russia," said Vkusno & tochka CEO Oleg Paroev.




					www.businessinsider.com
				




Same thing with all the Military tech they have acquired.  They have all the tooling and many things were produced under license in the Country.


----------



## Good2Golf

That said, HB, tech use could have also been a business decision (pricing, performance, etc.) amongst nations (NATO at that), and when that option stopped, because the ‘End Use License Agreement’ became a constesable situation — we should in NO WAY think that Canada is as pure as the driven snow on EULA restrictions, and slam Germany, or France or whomever else in NATO is adding some restrictions to tech transfer into UKR - TUR went internal to its own extant product.  There were a lot of huffy Canadians slamming DEU, FRA and others, yet we were doing the same elsewhere and had to actually flip-flop to support UKR.  I understand that the TUR business that provided replacement EOIR systems is quite capable of producing solid NATO-grade capability on its own, with no need to copy ITAR-controlled tech.  I think Bayraktar was producing capability with the best capability AND financials, which had to change slightly when Canada became affronted with where the tech was going.  Interestingly, it seems as though US DoS didn’t have any issue with ITAR-controlled tech being used in AZR/ARM conflict, only Canada did (follow the interest groups in Canada that pushed for the GoC to retain/expand trade restrictions…)

Canada is not the paragon of pure benevolent innocence throughout the world that many Canadians sitting comfortably back in their Lay-Z-Boy watching CBC Newsworld, smuggly  thinking how wonderful we are, is.


----------



## RaceAddict

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Same thing with all the Military tech they have acquired.  They have all the tooling and many things were produced under license in the Country.



A more-or-less-the-same thing is going to happen with China at some point in the not very distant future.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

RaceAddict said:


> A more-or-less-the-same thing is going to happen with China at some point in the not very distant future.


It already is happening and to an even greater extent.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Good2Golf said:


> That said, HB, tech use could have also been a business decision (pricing, performance, etc.) amongst nations (NATO at that), and when that option stopped, because the ‘End Use License Agreement’ became a constesable situation — we should in NO WAY think that Canada is as pure as the driven snow on EULA restrictions, and slam Germany, or France or whomever else in NATO is adding some restrictions to tech transfer into UKR - TUR went internal to its own extant product.  There were a lot of huffy Canadians slamming DEU, FRA and others, yet we were doing the same elsewhere and had to actually flip-flop to support UKR.  I understand that the TUR business that provided replacement EOIR systems is quite capable of producing solid NATO-grade capability on its own, with no need to copy ITAR-controlled tech.  I think Bayraktar was producing capability with the best capability AND financials, which had to change slightly when Canada became affronted with where the tech was going.  Interestingly, it seems as though US DoS didn’t have any issue with ITAR-controlled tech being used in AZR/ARM conflict, only Canada did (follow the interest groups in Canada that pushed for the GoC to retain/expand trade restrictions…)
> 
> Canada is not the paragon of pure benevolent innocence throughout the world that many Canadians sitting comfortably back in their Lay-Z-Boy watching CBC Newsworld, smuggly  thinking how wonderful we are, is.


Yup!  The Africans would like those mining concessions revisited any day now 😄

It's almost better for everyone if Canadians become more ignorant of the outside World.  😄


----------



## Kirkhill

> SMART BOMBS: MILITARY, DEFENSE, NATIONAL SECURITY AND MORE​Russia Finally Has Its Artillery War In Ukraine. But Can It Win?​By
> Sebastien Roblin
> Published
> 22 hours ago
> 
> *Can Russia win an artillery war against Ukraine?*











						Russia Finally Has Its Artillery War in Ukraine. But Can It Win?
					

Russia’s artillery advantage may degrade through the summer. Further along, Ukraine may begin fielding more Western air defense systems.




					www.19fortyfive.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> It already is happening and to an even greater extent.











						‘Era of cheap Chinese manufacturing over,’ says Nat Rothschild
					

British industrialist says more companies are now looking to factories in Europe and Central America




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				






> ‘Era of Chinese manufacturing over,’ says Nat Rothschild​British industrialist says more companies are now looking to factories in Europe and South America
> 
> China’s dominance in global manufacturing is coming to an end, according to British industrialist Nat Rothschild, as prolonged Covid disruption prompts companies to source parts closer to home.
> 
> Mr Rothschild, a banking scion and businessman, said more companies were now looking to factories in Europe and South America for supplies.
> 
> "The era of Chinese low cost manufacturing is over," he told The Telegraph. “People are prepared to pay more to have the stuff manufactured on their doorsteps.
> 
> “We're seeing American companies in particular wanting to move either to Southeast Asia or even to Mexico."
> 
> Mr Rothschild is executive chairman of Volex, a British company that makes circuit boards, cables and plugs for data centres, defence firms and consumer goods manufacturers.
> 
> Volex on Thursday set a target to nearly double its annual sales to $1.2bn by 2027, saying the global shift towards localised supply chains would help it reach its target.
> 
> Companies are shunning China as wages there rise, putting up costs, and Covid disruption leaves many customers facing shipping times of up to 16 weeks.
> 
> Covid and Russia’s war on Ukraine have also exposed the frailties of supply chains. Many manufacturers, ranging from car makers to jet builders, were buying components from either a single supplier or from a few companies in a single region. Both practices were vulnerable to lockdowns or war-induced factory shutdowns.



Non iacta alea est.

It is still rattling around inside the cup.  It could rattle for a long time to come.


----------



## RaceAddict

Humphrey Bogart said:


> It already is happening and to an even greater extent.



I was implying a situation where western production forcibly pulls out, but the damage is done and the tech is already in the wrong hands.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> ‘Era of cheap Chinese manufacturing over,’ says Nat Rothschild
> 
> 
> British industrialist says more companies are now looking to factories in Europe and Central America
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.telegraph.co.uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Non iacta alea est.
> 
> It is still rattling around inside the cup.  It could rattle for a long time to come.



"Era of Chinese manufacturing over"? Sure, you go with that Mr. Pundit. In the meantime, China remains the 'World's Factory':

Why China Is "The World's Factory"​The 5 reasons why China is the world's biggest manufacturer​
Pundits have wondered if China will lose its spot as "the world's factory” as other emerging economies offering cheap labor dull China's competitive edge. However, the availability of cheap labor is just one of many factors that have kept the "Made in China" label on so many products purchased by consumers around the world. It will take more than low labor costs for emerging economies to set up a business ecosystem that can compete with China's. For some time to come, China will be "the world factory” with its low production costs, huge labor pool, vast talent base, and business ecosystem.










						Why China Is "The World's Factory"
					

Some may think the ubiquity of Chinese products is due to the abundance of cheap labor that reduces production costs, but there is much more to it.




					www.investopedia.com


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> "Era of Chinese manufacturing over"? Sure, you go with that Mr. Pundit. In the meantime, China remains the 'World's Factory':
> 
> Why China Is "The World's Factory"​The 5 reasons why China is the world's biggest manufacturer​
> Pundits have wondered if China will lose its spot as "the world's factory” as other emerging economies offering cheap labor dull China's competitive edge. However, the availability of cheap labor is just one of many factors that have kept the "Made in China" label on so many products purchased by consumers around the world. It will take more than low labor costs for emerging economies to set up a business ecosystem that can compete with China's. For some time to come, China will be "the world factory” with its low production costs, huge labor pool, vast talent base, and business ecosystem.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Why China Is "The World's Factory"
> 
> 
> Some may think the ubiquity of Chinese products is due to the abundance of cheap labor that reduces production costs, but there is much more to it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.investopedia.com



Marvelous thing about the system:  It needs both buyers and sellers.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Getting out of China is no easy thing, chances are many businesses are screwed if they do as they did not follow local laws. 









						Preparing for China Decoupling Should Start NOW
					

US-China decoupling is accelerating and inevitable. Trade relations between the United States and China will lead, and the EU, with trade relations between China and Canada, Australia, Japan, and many other countries soon following. China's trade relations with these other countries will be...




					harrisbricken.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Russian Armoured train, not they were able to bridge the river where the rail bridge had been taken out. Russians take their trains seriously.






Some more on the bridge repair. https://topcor.ru/26387-rossijskie-vojska-zavershili-navedenie-pereprav-v-harkovskoj-oblasti.html


----------



## The Bread Guy

Let the reserve one-liners begin ....








						Former Canadian military chief to head Ukraine defence advisory council
					

Retired Gen. Rick Hillier to chair strategic advisory group, to be made up of former military commanders, supporting and advising Ukraine's volunteer reserve…




					nationalpost.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

The Bread Guy said:


> Let the reserve one-liners begin ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Former Canadian military chief to head Ukraine defence advisory council
> 
> 
> Retired Gen. Rick Hillier to chair strategic advisory group, to be made up of former military commanders, supporting and advising Ukraine's volunteer reserve…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nationalpost.com



It's not 'Peak Reserve' until there's a Pipe Band, and a bitter Reg F Captain who never leaves the office pointing out how he used to do it better back in the Battalion


----------



## TheProfessional

daftandbarmy said:


> It's not 'Peak Reserve' until there's a Pipe Band, and a bitter Reg F Captain who never leaves the office pointing out how he used to do it better back in the Battalion


Don't forget to sign the paysheet.


----------



## daftandbarmy

TheProfessional said:


> Don't forget to sign the paysheet.



Because part of our rich traditions include Byzantine levels of paper based bureaucracy


----------



## MilEME09

daftandbarmy said:


> Because part of our rich traditions include Byzantine levels of paper based bureaucracy


Hey its catching up, we just got paysheets we can digitally sign last month


----------



## RangerRay

daftandbarmy said:


> It's not 'Peak Reserve' until there's a Pipe Band, and a bitter Reg F Captain who never leaves the office pointing out how he used to do it better back in the Battalion


We didn't even have that!  We had to borrow the Westies' band or the local pipe band!


----------



## Skysix

Colin Parkinson said:


> Russian Armoured train, not they were able to bridge the river where the rail bridge had been taken out. Russians take their trains seriously.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Some more on the bridge repair. https://topcor.ru/26387-rossijskie-vojska-zavershili-navedenie-pereprav-v-harkovskoj-oblasti.html


So they have pontoon sections that are dedicated rail, or are all of them rail capable?


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> Hey its catching up, we just got paysheets we can digitally sign last month


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Skysix said:


> So they have pontoon sections that are dedicated rail, or are all of them rail capable?


Dedicated as I understand it. They have dedicated railway troops and likely Railway Combat Engineers trained in the specific bridging equipment


----------



## Colin Parkinson

TheProfessional said:


> Don't forget to sign the paysheet.


The Pink ones?


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Meanwhile, mine clearance on the cheap.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1540092706738896898


----------



## daftandbarmy

Colin Parkinson said:


> Meanwhile, mine clearance on the cheap.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1540092706738896898


----------



## Kirkhill

Colin Parkinson said:


> Meanwhile, mine clearance on the cheap.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1540092706738896898



Is that 5 of 7?

Extreme left on the top row seems to be intact and in situ.   Extreme left on the bottom row I think is intact but displaced to the left.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Kirkhill said:


> Is that 5 of 7?
> 
> Extreme left on the top row seems to be intact and in situ.   Extreme left on the bottom row I think is intact but displaced to the left.


If it opens the route up,  2 out of the way that can be picked up after the fact isn't that bad of a day. 

Saves an EOD team having to be on the X while Ivan is watching.


----------



## McG

rmc_wannabe said:


> Saves an EOD team having to be on the X while Ivan is watching.


You never needed EOD for land mines.


----------



## Skysix

McG said:


> You never needed EOD for land mines.





McG said:


> You never needed EOD for land mines.


Unless they are booby trapped. Which with a hasty obstacle like that it would be careless not to.  So EOD or suitably experienced sappers. But after the pressure wave any anti lift or other traps now are no threat so yes, they can be moved aside by grunts for the UKR-TDF to later defuse and repurpose against the LPR/DPR/SU2.0


----------



## Good2Golf

Skysix said:


> So EOD or suitably experienced sappers.


So a local commuter smoking a cigarette isn’t an option then?


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Good2Golf said:


> So a local commuter smoking a cigarette isn’t an option then?


He's basically EOD.  They were always a little loopy!


----------



## McG

Skysix said:


> Unless they are booby trapped. Which with a hasty obstacle like that it would be careless not to. So EOD or suitably experienced sappers.


All Canadian sappers can do the job.  EOD is not required for mines.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1540437688909795329


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> He's basically EOD.  They were always a little loopy!



In the 1700s it was said that you could tell who was a candidate for the Engineers.  They were "mad, Methodist or married".


----------



## brihard

In a pinch, I don’t see why any pioneer section couldn’t BIP that, or explode a breach through. Even on my basic demo course we learned how to BIP dud grenades. B-GL-381 might not wholly approve, but in the midst of an actual war, I don’t see an issue with chaining up some detonator-sensitized det cord, half blocks of C4, and some time fuse and exploding the fuck out of it.


----------



## RedFive

brihard said:


> In a pinch, I don’t see why any pioneer section couldn’t BIP that, or explode a breach through. Even on my basic demo course we learned how to BIP dud grenades. B-GL-381 might not wholly approve, but in the midst of an actual war, I don’t see an issue with chaining up some detonator-sensitized det cord, half blocks of C4, and some time fuse and exploding the fuck out of it.


Is "exploding the fuck out of it" the technical term from B-GL-381? Asking for a friend....


----------



## brihard

RedFive said:


> Is "exploding the fuck out of it" the technical term from B-GL-381? Asking for a friend....


Nope, that’s grinningly self-generated.


----------



## MilEME09

Definitely the look of someone coping with what they just went through


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1540400050723061760

Also is this a stage 9 trench? I don't recall this in the Pam


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1540352158822027265


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Clearly their SKOP kits come with more bits than ours.


----------



## FJAG

> Canadian General (Ret.) Rick Hillier to lead new Strategic Advisory Council for Ukrainian World Congress #UniteWithUkraine Campaign
> 
> 
> The Ukrainian World Congress (UWC) is honoured to announce General (Ret.) Rick Hillier, Canada’s former Chief of Defence Staff, will chair a new Strategic Advisory Council through the UWC’s #UniteWithUkraine campaign.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.unitewithukraine.com



🍻


----------



## TacticalTea

FJAG said:


> 🍻


Reiterating what Gen Leslie said previously. Send the tanks and LAVs.

And yet, I still find people in the Forces who think - after four months - that there's ''no place'', ''no time'' to train them on Canadian equipment that is simultaneously ''too decrepit'' yet ''indispensable to Canada's defense''.

Double speak, excuses, and mediocrity seem to have pervaded the minds of even our own ''warfighters''.


----------



## MilEME09

TacticalTea said:


> Reiterating what Gen Leslie said previously. Send the tanks and LAVs.
> 
> And yet, I still find people in the Forces who think - after four months - that there's ''no place'', ''no time'' to train them on Canadian equipment that is simultaneously ''too decrepit'' yet ''indispensable to Canada's defense''.
> 
> Double speak, excuses, and mediocrity seem to have pervaded the minds of even our own ''warfighters''.


If GD ramped up production, and was allowed to build LAVs in it's US facilities for us too, I suspect they could replace our vehicles rather quickly.

I am saddened we aren't send the last few coyotes to referb and then Ukraine, the surveillance suites would be very useful to them.


----------



## GR66

TacticalTea said:


> Reiterating what Gen Leslie said previously. Send the tanks and LAVs.
> 
> And yet, I still find people in the Forces who think - after four months - that there's ''no place'', ''no time'' to train them on Canadian equipment that is simultaneously ''too decrepit'' yet ''indispensable to Canada's defense''.
> 
> Double speak, excuses, and mediocrity seem to have pervaded the minds of even our own ''warfighters''.


I suggested some time ago that we should send Ukraine all our M777s and begin training them on our LAVs.

I believe I read that one of the reasons that modern tanks weren't being shipped there was because there was some kind of agreement by NATO members not to do so.  So instead I suggested we give our Leopards to Poland so they can ship Ukraine more of the Russian models they have in stock.

I'll reiterate what I said then.  Our weapons and equipment do nothing to deter Russia while they are sitting in Canada.  While Russia is tied up in Ukraine they don't have the strength to simultaneously launch a new attack against NATO so our military hardware equally has no real deterrent effect sitting in Latvia either.  The only way right now for our artillery, LAVs and tanks can actually achieve the goal of deterring a militarily aggressive Russia is to give it to Ukraine so they can more effectively fight Russia on NATO's behalf.  Give them our equipment and purchase heavier replacement equipment from the US to replace it (M109's, Abrams and eventually Optionally Manned Fighting Vehicles.

$0.02


----------



## Dana381

GR66 said:


> I suggested some time ago that we should send Ukraine all our M777s and begin training them on our LAVs.
> 
> I believe I read that one of the reasons that modern tanks weren't being shipped there was because there was some kind of agreement by NATO members not to do so.  So instead I suggested we give our Leopards to Poland so they can ship Ukraine more of the Russian models they have in stock.
> 
> I'll reiterate what I said then.  Our weapons and equipment do nothing to deter Russia while they are sitting in Canada.  While Russia is tied up in Ukraine they don't have the strength to simultaneously launch a new attack against NATO so our military hardware equally has no real deterrent effect sitting in Latvia either.  The only way right now for our artillery, LAVs and tanks can actually achieve the goal of deterring a militarily aggressive Russia is to give it to Ukraine so they can more effectively fight Russia on NATO's behalf.  Give them our equipment and purchase heavier replacement equipment from the US to replace it (M109's, Abrams and eventually Optionally Manned Fighting Vehicles.
> 
> $0.02



That is likely China's master plan. NATO and other western countries deplete their war stocks supporting Ukraine against Russia so when China attacks Taiwan we have little left to help Taiwan with and therefore think twice. Putin played into Xi's plan like a good puppet. The only resource we arent depleting is the navies because we can't access the Black sea. Hence why China has been building and commissoning so many ships. Between their Navy and fishing boat militia they can encircle Taiwan and prevent any help getting into the country. I would not be suprised at all if China was helping both sides in order to prolong the war and deplete western arms supplies even more.

This is of course only my opinion and I have no evidence to back it up. But if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then...


----------



## FJAG

TacticalTea said:


> Reiterating what Gen Leslie said previously. Send the tanks and LAVs.


The more that I see NATO nations giving older kit to the Ukrainians and getting newer US, Brit or German kit as replacements, the more I think that we should ship all of our tanks and 3 battalions worth of LAVs to Ukraine and negotiate a US ABCT as per EIS  as replacement. Hell, I'd be happy with an ARNG ABCT's gear.

🍻


----------



## McG

If we want to send our new LAV fleet and buy replacements, then I am sure Ukraine could make could use of it. Why would we send our Leopard 2 fleet when it becomes actually combat ineffective after just using it for a two month exercise (where nobody is trying to destroy it)?


----------



## GR66

Dana381 said:


> That is likely China's master plan. NATO and other western countries deplete their war stocks supporting Ukraine against Russia so when China attacks Taiwan we have little left to help Taiwan with and therefore think twice. Putin played into Xi's plan like a good puppet. The only resource we arent depleting is the navies because we can't access the Black sea. Hence why China has been building and commissoning so many ships. Between their Navy and fishing boat militia they can encircle Taiwan and prevent any help getting into the country. I would not be suprised at all if China was helping both sides in order to prolong the war and deplete western arms supplies even more.
> 
> This is of course only my opinion and I have no evidence to back it up. But if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then...


How much use will our Leopards, LAVs and M777's be in defending Taiwan against a Chinese invasion?


----------



## TacticalTea

Dana381 said:


> GR66 said:
> 
> 
> 
> How much use will our Leopards, LAVs and M777's be in defending Taiwan against a Chinese invasion?
> 
> 
> 
> Exactly. It would be primarily an air and sea battle, not a land war as Ukraine is.
Click to expand...


----------



## Dana381

GR66 said:


> How much use will our Leopards, LAVs and M777's be in defending Taiwan against a Chinese invasion?


Absolutly no use if they are destroyed by the Russians or worn out by the Ukrainians. 

Anything that can shoot and that can make it to Taiwan can be a threat to China. If western countries send all their excess kit to Ukraine they won't have it to send to Taiwan. 

If western countries send kit to Ukraine expecting new kit to replace it then China just needs to disrupt the factories making the new stuff. No country will send all their weapons they will keep a certain ammount to defend the homeland. If China depletes the extra kit by working to extend the ukraine war then there will be nothing to send to Taiwan or other countries.

China does not just want Taiwan they will not stop there. No one really knows their true intent but I would wager they have pretty grand ambitions.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

I am sure GDLS will be happy to continue building new LAV 6's for the CAF to replace ones being shipped to Ukraine. NATO really needs a "Monkey Model" reliable MBT with at least a 120mm to build and supply Allies like Ukraine and others. Bog Standard Leopard 2 hull with a M1A1 turret. Germany builds the hull, UK the suspension, Canada tracks and wheels, Commercial engine.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Colin Parkinson said:


> I am sure GDLS will be happy to continue building new LAV 6's for the CAF to replace ones being shipped to Ukraine. NATO really needs a "Monkey Model" reliable MBT with at least a 120mm to build and supply Allies like Ukraine and others. Bog Standard Leopard 2 hull with a M1A1 turret. Germany builds the hull, UK the suspension, Canada tracks and wheels, Commercial engine.


Makes sense, but would require more co-operation and will than is present right now.


----------



## KevinB

Colin Parkinson said:


> I am sure GDLS will be happy to continue building new LAV 6's for the CAF to replace ones being shipped to Ukraine. NATO really needs a "Monkey Model" reliable MBT with at least a 120mm to build and supply Allies like Ukraine and others. Bog Standard Leopard 2 hull with a M1A1 turret. Germany builds the hull, UK the suspension, Canada tracks and wheels, Commercial engine.


So one country can twitch and disarm all of NATO…
   I wouldn’t tie anything to Germany.


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> So one country can twitch and disarm all of NATO…
> I wouldn’t tie anything to Germany.


Precisely what went through my mind.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

KevinB said:


> So one country can twitch and disarm all of NATO…
> I wouldn’t tie anything to Germany.


To be part of the Contract you need to sign away some restrictions, would be the only way it would work. Then NATO appoints a group within itself to determine who can get them. Basically you want to build a modern Sherman, maybe not the best tank, but one capable of being built quickly, standardised bits.
Frankly I don't trust the US to be able to build a budget tank either, look at the C*****F**K that is the Light Tank Program. Germany is the only other country with significant industrial and technical knowhow. There was a time when Vickers would have been a good choice, but the brits, threw out the bath water, broke the tub, faucet and strangled the baby just to be sure.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Who needs SAMs when you have sanctions …


In Russia, Western Planes Are Falling Apart​After months of sanctions that have made critical repair parts difficult to access, aircraft operators are running out of options.

None of the experts WIRED spoke to said they’d rush to step onto a plane operating in Russia at the moment. Bilotkach—a Ukrainian national—equated it to taking international-facing Russian airlines that had significantly improved their safety records in the post-Soviet Union back 30 or more years. “Just look it up on Wikipedia,” he says. “They have a separate page for air crashes in the Soviet Union.”









						In Russia, Western Planes Are Falling Apart
					

After months of sanctions that have made critical repair parts difficult to access, aircraft operators are running out of options.




					www.wired.co.uk


----------



## Skysix

daftandbarmy said:


> Who needs SAMs when you have sanctions …
> 
> 
> In Russia, Western Planes Are Falling Apart​After months of sanctions that have made critical repair parts difficult to access, aircraft operators are running out of options.
> 
> None of the experts WIRED spoke to said they’d rush to step onto a plane operating in Russia at the moment. Bilotkach—a Ukrainian national—equated it to taking international-facing Russian airlines that had significantly improved their safety records in the post-Soviet Union back 30 or more years. “Just look it up on Wikipedia,” he says. “They have a separate page for air crashes in the Soviet Union.”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In Russia, Western Planes Are Falling Apart
> 
> 
> After months of sanctions that have made critical repair parts difficult to access, aircraft operators are running out of options.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.wired.co.uk


From 3 months ago...


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1540907710203318272


----------



## The Bread Guy

One way to ding USSR 2.0 ...








						UK, U.S., Japan and Canada to ban Russia gold imports
					

Britain, the United States, Japan and Canada will ban new imports of Russian gold as part of efforts to tighten the sanctions squeeze on Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine, the British government said on Sunday.




					www.reuters.com
				



... with some leaks yet to be plugged








						Switzerland Imports Russian Gold for First Time Since Invasion - BNN Bloomberg
					

Switzerland imported gold from Russia for the first time since the invasion of Ukraine, showing the industry’s stance toward the nation’s precious metals may be softening.




					www.bnnbloomberg.ca
				











						Swiss customs reviews imports of Russian gold worth $200M
					

Switzerland is a global hub for metals with the country’s refineries handling about two-thirds of the world’s gold.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## Skysix

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1540907710203318272


Why is the west so surprised? The stated aim all along from SU2.0 has been to eliminate Ukraine as a nation and people.

So 10-15 million flee, another million or so killed (military and civilian), another 15-20 million absorbed and distributed throughout Russia leaving only the 15 million or so ethnic Russians and collaborators to populate the captured landmass of the former Ukraine.

Actually that is fairly civilised of them compared to the Starvation strategy Stalin used in the SU1.0 version.


----------



## Kirkhill

> The partial removal of potentially trouble-making ethnic groups was a technique used consistently by Joseph Stalin during his government;[20] between 1935 and 1938 alone, at least ten different nationalities were deported.[21] Germany's invasion of the Soviet Union led to a massive escalation in Soviet ethnic cleansing.[22]











						Population transfer in the Soviet Union - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				











						Why Stalin ordered the forced relocation of ethnic groups
					

Deportations are one of the most tragic pages in Soviet history, and continue to be a sensitive issue for many members of the repressed ethnic and social groups. So what was the goal of that policy?




					www.rbth.com
				








						The Soviet Massive Deportations - A Chronology | Sciences Po Violence de masse et Résistance - Réseau de recherche
					

1934: Josef Stalin, who had ruled the USSR with an iron hand since the end of the 1920s, launched the Great Purge in January 1934 to consolidate his power.




					www.sciencespo.fr


----------



## suffolkowner

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1541179512561582085
good news if true


----------



## MilEME09

This is why i hate reporters on the front, for background,  a French journalist went to the front, published the story without blurring out any maps or anything else that might be sensitive. Russia used the story to target the position, killing one soldier.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1541205753247170563


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kyle Porter, CAF member, doing the business. I just saw him on the news wearing a balmoral, so he might be a reservist.

Well done all these CIRO folks:



Members of an Alberta search and rescue group are in Ukraine working to save the lives of those trapped beneath the rubble of buildings collapsed by airstrikes.

The Canadian International Rescue Organization (CIRO) consists of eight volunteer team members, mostly from central Alberta, who have travelled to Kyiv to conduct a series of high-tech missions in hopes of finding survivors.

After reaching out to the Ukrainian consulate in Edmonton at the end of February to offer their services, the team embarked to Ukraine the following week with food rations and equipment.

Team leader Marcel Schur from Red Deer described unsettling moments that occur daily as his group enters the danger zones of Kyiv where strikes have hit less than a kilometre away.

This included a tense moment on Monday, when a bomb went off across the freeway from where his team was conducting a search effort.

“It’s just up and down with these emotions,” Schur said.

“You go through the chaos and the confusion and everything like that, there’s high and lows, it’s hot and it's cold at night and you get this big rollercoaster of a day.”

Schur says his team members are using cameras along with seismic sensors to detect movement. CIRO has been working exclusively with the Kyiv Fire and Rescue Service to train their firefighters how to use the technology.

“As long as it’s a conscious person and you can get them to tap or scratch on the surface of the rubble, we’ll be able to hear them,” said Schur.

“Normally in an earthquake you get layers of destruction, but because it’s all blown in, it all just falls and intertwines with each other. There’s not a lot of spots for the person to be underneath, but there is always a chance and that’s what we work for.”

As of Wednesday, the group has successfully completed searches of three buildings and has found one survivor.

Sadly, many people discovered are already deceased, but the hope of finding even a single survivor is why Calgarian Kyle Porter made the trip.

*The nine-year member of the Canadian Armed Forces is a medic who was watching the Ukrainian conflict on television and felt it was an obligation to offer his services.

"I saw that footage and I thought, ‘that’s not fair.' I have equipment, I have training. I have experience, and the fact that I get to sit here and enjoy the benefits of where I live compared to these people and their families, I knew I needed to do what I could to get some cosmic level of justice."'*

Porter says he’s seen everything from minor wounds caused by pieces of glass falling from buildings, to people who are critically injured in explosions.

Those scenes are still difficult to experience for search and rescue team members like Jackson Siewert from Okotoks, Alta.

"It’s tough to see, but we’re here for a reason and you have to focus on that reason, because we want to help," he said.

"There’s a lot of emotions for sure, but as a team we have to hold things together.”

CIRO is a non-profit organization that relies on donations for help.

Anyone wishing to donate to CIRO can visit CanadaHelps.Org.

Alberta-based search and rescue team works to find Ukrainian survivors beneath collapsed buildings


Looks like Marcel Schur is CAF as well:










						Central Albertans return from search and rescue efforts in Ukraine - Red Deer Advocate
					

Four Central Albertans were part of a team that saved the life of a Ukrainian trapped under the rubble of a destroyed building.




					www.reddeeradvocate.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson

A very chaotic response to a heavy barrage. My guess is the did not prepare anything in case they were shelled


----------



## The Bread Guy

You KNOW you're under their skin when you're individually sanctioned 


> ... Кристиан Борис (Christian Borys) – создатель ресурса «Saint Javelin»* ...


All sorts of other Canadians on the latest list out today here (archived link to USSR 2.0 ministry of foreign affairs)

* - Google translate: "creator of the Saint Javelin resource"


----------



## Kirkhill

Colin Parkinson said:


> A very chaotic response to a heavy barrage. My guess is the did not prepare anything in case they were shelled



@Colin Parkinson 

This was the Reddit headline I saw that video attached to.  There's a long version of the incident.  It goes on for about 8 minutes IIRC.



> Russian soldiers panic after Ukrainian troops hit a Russian ammunition depot. Welcome to hell, orcs.


----------



## Underway




----------



## Fishbone Jones

The Bread Guy said:


> You KNOW you're under their skin when you're individually sanctioned
> 
> All sorts of other Canadians on the latest list out today here (archived link to USSR 2.0 ministry of foreign affairs)
> 
> * - Google translate: "creator of the Saint Javelin resource"


Gerald Butts made the list. Wonder why?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Fishbone Jones said:


> Gerald Butts made the list. Wonder why?


I think he got vacuumed in with all the others in the "current or former political operators/back room types" category.


----------



## Skysix

Colin Parkinson said:


> A very chaotic response to a heavy barrage. My guess is the did not prepare anything in case they were shelled


15:1 and they are almost out of 152/155. Over 500,000 rounds sent by the west plus whatever they had in stock. 7 MILLION plus incoming arty..... So now you can see why they need more if this is the Ukrainian useage rate. And how critical it is to also break the Russian supply chains


----------



## Skysix

If we send 8x the number of troops to Latvia than we have there now, gow many will be left here?

On even a 2:1 dwell ratio, how many reservists will be needed to augment?

What would the new PRes establishment need to be to make the rest of the rapid reaction force commitment deployable in a timely manner?









						NATO to boost reaction force, Ukraine support
					

NATO's secretary general says the alliance wants to increase the number of its rapid reaction forces from the current 40,000 to over 300,000.




					www.militarytimes.com


----------



## Halifax Tar

Fishbone Jones said:


> Gerald Butts made the list. Wonder why?



He was feeling left out and unimportant so he bought a ban.


----------



## KevinB

Skysix said:


> If we send 8x the number of troops to Latvia than we have there now, gow many will be left here?


How many troops left or how many that would DAG green??? 



Skysix said:


> On even a 2:1 dwell ratio, how many reservists will be needed to augment?


Positions like they need to be viewed like 4 CMBG was.   It does work not a short duration tour with a military the size of Canada.  



Skysix said:


> What would the new PRes establishment need to be to make the rest of the rapid reaction force commitment deployable in a timely manner?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> NATO to boost reaction force, Ukraine support
> 
> 
> NATO's secretary general says the alliance wants to increase the number of its rapid reaction forces from the current 40,000 to over 300,000.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.militarytimes.com


Unless Canada changes the PRes ToS and utterly restructures it - you can’t rely on PRes forces.


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> How many troops left or how many that would DAG green???
> 
> 
> Positions like they need to be viewed like 4 CMBG was.   It does work not a short duration tour with a military the size of Canada.
> 
> 
> Unless Canada changes the PRes ToS and utterly restructures it - you can’t rely on PRes forces.



Given what the Reserves were able to achieve during the AFG thing, under existing ToS, you could probably rely on a steady trickle of suitable personnel almost indefinately.

Of course they'd all be under the rank of MCpl, mostly, but that might be just fine if you mainly need to fill up APCs etc.


----------



## KevinB

daftandbarmy said:


> Given what the Reserves were able to achieve during the AFG thing, under existing ToS, you could probably rely on a steady trickle of suitable personnel almost indefinately.


Not very rapidly unless one considers a 6 month work up for a Rapid Deployment to be well rapid…


daftandbarmy said:


> Of course they'd all be under the rank of MCpl, mostly, but that might be just fine if you mainly need to fill up APCs etc.


I’m sure some Lt and Capt, as well as a few Sgt and WO can be found too. 
   My point is the PRes system works for individual augmentees with enough prior notice.  
  Unlike down here, you just can’t easily deploy a whole unit.   

That doesn’t make a Rapid Response entity. 
What it does make is forces that could bolster rotations for fixed periods.


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> Not very rapidly unless one considers a 6 month work up for a Rapid Deployment to be well rapid…
> 
> I’m sure some Lt and Capt, as well as a few Sgt and WO can be found too.
> My point is the PRes system works for individual augmentees with enough prior notice.
> Unlike down here, you just can’t easily deploy a whole unit.
> 
> That doesn’t make a Rapid Response entity.
> What it does make is forces that could bolster rotations for fixed periods.



Yes, that's true. If you want the Reserves 'now', you need to be able to cut a Class C contract in less than a month.

Solve that one problem and you'll go a long way to increasing the speed of deployment, IMHO.


----------



## KevinB

daftandbarmy said:


> Yes, that's true. If you want the Reserves 'now', you need to be able to cut a Class C contract in less than a month.
> 
> Solve that one problem and you'll go a long way to increasing the speed of deployment, IMHO.


Or 6 months ago  
   I think we got sucked into the wrong thread for this though.


----------



## Skysix

I was wondering if after the 8x as large rotations to Latvia were a thing what capability would remain to defend the home front...


----------



## Skysix

KevinB said:


> Or 6 months ago
> I think we got sucked into the wrong thread for this though.


Force 2055?


----------



## Skysix

KevinB said:


> Unlike down here, you just can’t easily deploy a whole unit.


So, is that an ability that Canada SHOULD have? And if so  how to go about it and what size/unit capabilities?

I think as a strand of this thread however it needs a new home...


----------



## Skysix

Colin Parkinson said:


> If a clash happened and Russia deployed it's artillery, I think we would be shocked at the carnage on our side. It would not last long but the conflict would have a causality rate that rivals Iraq and Afghanistan combined. NATO will stumble in the first week, followed by a counter offensive that would stop the Russian offensive. It would be very short and very bloody with a lot of dead AFV's and aircraft on both sides. Expect heavy causalities within various field headquarters caused by their lack of EW, light discipline and failure to secure the perimeters.


Posted elsewhere back in 2016....


----------



## KevinB

More civilian targets deliberately struck. 








						Russian missile strike kills 16 in shopping mall, Ukraine says
					

Two Russian missiles slammed into a crowded shopping centre in the central Ukrainian city of Kremenchuk on Monday, killing at least 16 people and wounding 59, officials said.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## RaceAddict

KevinB said:


> More civilian targets deliberately struck.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian missile strike kills 16 in shopping mall, Ukraine says
> 
> 
> Two Russian missiles slammed into a crowded shopping centre in the central Ukrainian city of Kremenchuk on Monday, killing at least 16 people and wounding 59, officials said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com



I don't think I saw it posted in here, but they also hit an apartment block and a kindergarten on Sunday.









						Kyiv kindergarten, apartment hit by long-range Russian missiles: Ukraine
					

A 7-year-old girl was pulled out of the rubble alive following Sunday's attack, according to Ukrainian officials.




					www.newsweek.com


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> Or 6 months ago
> I think we got sucked into the wrong thread for this though.


Every thread on this website eventually turns into ''ARMY REORGANIZATION THREAD 20XX''.  🤷‍♀️


----------



## FJAG

KevinB said:


> Unless Canada changes the PRes ToS and utterly restructures it - you can’t rely on PRes forces.


I keep saying that the current legislative and even regulatory elements respecting PRes ToS aren't that bad. It's the ridiculous administrative hamstringing that goes on internal to DND together with the current internal organizational, equipment and training structure that makes the whole thing ponderous and difficult.

95% of what is wrong with the PRes can be fixed internally if DND/CA would get their heads out of their butts.


----------



## Kilted

TacticalTea said:


> Every thread on this website eventually turns into ''ARMY REORGANIZATION THREAD 20XX''.  🤷‍♀️


A good number of our problems would be fixed if we could actually recruit and train to authorized strength.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

He seems very keen to start a nuclear war and to make regions of space untenable for anyone's satellites.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1541035666187980800


----------



## suffolkowner

Colin Parkinson said:


> He seems very keen to start a nuclear war and to make regions of space untenable for anyone's satellites.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1541035666187980800


The US nuked the wrong people in 1945


----------



## daftandbarmy

suffolkowner said:


> The US nuked the wrong people in 1945



Well, Patton kinda had them pegged:

"...from what I’ve seen of them, I have no particular desire to understand them except to ascertain how much lead or iron it takes to kill them. In addition to his other amiable characteristics, the Russian has no regard for human life and is an all out son of a bitch, a barbarian, and a chronic drunk." 

- Gen. George S. Patton


----------



## NavyShooter

daftandbarmy said:


> Well, Patton kinda had them pegged:
> 
> "...from what I’ve seen of them, I have no particular desire to understand them except to ascertain how much lead or iron it takes to kill them. In addition to his other amiable characteristics, the Russian has no regard for human life and is an all out son of a bitch, a barbarian, and a chronic drunk."
> 
> - Gen. George S. Patton


King Solomon (biblical) is purported to have said "There is nothing new under the sun."

Here we have a perfect example.


----------



## KevinB

suffolkowner said:


> The US nuked the wrong people in 1945


No, but we probably shouldn’t have stopped going West in Germany…


----------



## FormerHorseGuard

There a lack of will or taste for any more in Europe after the defeat of Nazi Germany. 
Various US Generals, George S, Patton and PM  Churchill were very verbal about pushing back USSR back to its pre war borders. 
Patton wanted to use the found gold to fund a future army. George Patton’s Trumpian Plan to Fund the Military With Captured Nazi Gold
Churchill's plan  Operation Unthinkable Operation Unthinkable: Churchill's plan for World War Three | The National Archives.


A lot of Monday morning quarterbacking could be done on the closing days of the War in Europe. Pushing the Soviets back, forcing the unification of Germany.   

But did the Allies want to continue a war after almost 6 years and they were running out of funds and manpower.


----------



## FormerHorseGuard

https://www.warhistoryonline.com/world-war-ii/canadian-paratroopers-saved-denmark-soviet-occupation.html?chrome=1
		

We had a hand in stopping the Soviet advance.


----------



## Spencer100

FormerHorseGuard said:


> https://www.warhistoryonline.com/world-war-ii/canadian-paratroopers-saved-denmark-soviet-occupation.html?chrome=1
> 
> 
> We had a hand in stopping the Soviet advance.


Yup And Dr Felton has a video!  






His stuff is the best!


----------



## The Bread Guy

Turkey reportedly green lights FIN, SWE into the club ....








						Turkey lifts veto on Finland, Sweden joining NATO, clearing path for expansion
					

NATO ally Turkey lifted its veto over Finland and Sweden's bid to join the Western alliance on Tuesday after the three nations agreed to protect each other's security, ending a weeks-long drama that tested allied unity against Russia's invasion of Ukraine.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

The Bread Guy said:


> Turkey reportedly green lights FIN, SWE into the club ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Turkey lifts veto on Finland, Sweden joining NATO, clearing path for expansion
> 
> 
> NATO ally Turkey lifted its veto over Finland and Sweden's bid to join the Western alliance on Tuesday after the three nations agreed to protect each other's security, ending a weeks-long drama that tested allied unity against Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


----------



## suffolkowner

The Bread Guy said:


> Turkey reportedly green lights FIN, SWE into the club ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Turkey lifts veto on Finland, Sweden joining NATO, clearing path for expansion
> 
> 
> NATO ally Turkey lifted its veto over Finland and Sweden's bid to join the Western alliance on Tuesday after the three nations agreed to protect each other's security, ending a weeks-long drama that tested allied unity against Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


Im guessing bad news for the Kurds


----------



## The Bread Guy

suffolkowner said:


> Im guessing bad news for the Kurds


Again


----------



## Skysix

Or maybe a quid-pro-quo for Turkey being invited into the EU


----------



## Good2Golf

Skysix said:


> Or maybe a quid-pro-quo for Turkey being invited into the EU


Yup.  Was think more this than support for TUR ramping up effort against the Kurds.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Skysix said:


> Or maybe a quid-pro-quo for Turkey being invited into the EU


"Be kind with your siblings or you're not allowed to play with the neighbourhood kids."

"But moooooom...."


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> Yup.  Was think more this than support for TUR ramping up effort against the Kurds.


If there's even a kernel of truth to RUS state media, why not both?


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Russia’s Only Pump-Jet Kilo Class Submarine Is Back To Attack Ukraine
					

After an eventful career, the sole pump-jet-driven Kilo class submarine is likely about to embark on combat operations against Ukraine.




					www.thedrive.com


----------



## RangerRay

Skysix said:


> Or maybe a quid-pro-quo for Turkey being invited into the EU


Why not?  Hungary is still allowed in the club…


----------



## MilEME09

so crazy idea, but the Canadian element of the Ukrainian Foreign legion is estimated 550+, many likely have LAV experience, let's donate a battalion of LAV's plus some for training. The training ones stay in Poland to train the Ukrainians, then you push the battalion to the foreign legion for the Canadians to use right away.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest tote board (source)


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> Latest tote board (source)
> View attachment 71690


And remember wounded are likely 3 times that, if not more, so Russia is likely past 100k casualties


----------



## rmc_wannabe

MilEME09 said:


> And remember wounded are likely 3 times that, if not more, so Russia is likely past 100k casualties


If that's true, its mind boggling there is still popular support in Russia for this folly. Those numbers are higher than the Soviet-Afghan War and Second Chechen War combined....


----------



## The Bread Guy

rmc_wannabe said:


> If that's true, its mind boggling there is still popular support in Russia for this folly. Those numbers are higher than the Soviet-Afghan War and Second Chechen War combined....


But what USSR 2.0 GenPub sees/hears/reads is that these are Nazis killing their kids, just like the Ukrainians who've been allegedly genociding all those Russians in the separatist enclaves since 2014.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Anything to help the troops ....








						Aid on the way: Murmansk sends toilet paper, underpants, uniforms to warriors in Ukraine
					

According to the leader of a major relief effort organised in Murmansk, the Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine are starving and often do not have proper clothes and shoes.




					thebarentsobserver.com


----------



## brihard

Russian forces have exhausted their operational stock of two ply and will be getting supplied with reserves of one ply stored under a mountain since the 60s. Their sphincters have culminated.


----------



## The Bread Guy

brihard said:


> Their sphincters have culminated.


"Folks, give it up for our next group looking for the 'Garage Band Heroes' first prize, Culminated Sphincters!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some reassuring news from Pravda on USSR 2.0 casualties (highlights mine) ...


----------



## Gunnar

The Bread Guy said:


> Some reassuring news from Pravda on USSR 2.0 casualties (highlights mine) ...
> View attachment 71714


given that russian propaganda overstates most things by a factor of 10 (they seem to do the old fashioned "big lie" version of propaganda, Ukraine's is a bit more subtle), then the losses are probably 2:1 in the Ukrainian's favour...


----------



## dapaterson

Lots of generals appear to be doing well, if nothing else...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1542269393945903105


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Seems they were "missing" at least 30,000 soldiers even before the invasion, likley they don't even know for themselves how many have died.


----------



## FJAG

Colin Parkinson said:


> Seems they were "missing" at least 30,000 soldiers even before the invasion, likley they don't even know for themselves how many have died.


Ask Ottawa any day of the week how many reservists we have.


----------



## lenaitch

FormerHorseGuard said:


> There a lack of will or taste for any more in Europe after the defeat of Nazi Germany.
> Various US Generals, George S, Patton and PM  Churchill were very verbal about pushing back USSR back to its pre war borders.
> Patton wanted to use the found gold to fund a future army. George Patton’s Trumpian Plan to Fund the Military With Captured Nazi Gold
> Churchill's plan  Operation Unthinkable Operation Unthinkable: Churchill's plan for World War Three | The National Archives.
> 
> 
> A lot of Monday morning quarterbacking could be done on the closing days of the War in Europe. Pushing the Soviets back, forcing the unification of Germany.
> 
> But did the Allies want to continue a war after almost 6 years and they were running out of funds and manpower.


And getting ready to pivot to the Pacific.

How do you convince a war-weary public, including a damned-near broke UK, that they should now turn on an ally?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

lenaitch said:


> And getting ready to pivot to the Pacific.
> 
> How do you convince a war-weary public, including a damned-near broke UK, that they should now turn on an ally?


The long game. 

A lot of folks felt that Wilson buggered up Versailles 1919 by making too radical a change to the balance of power in Europe by demanding republics vice a return to monarchies in some of the divested states of Germany and Austria-Hungary. 

Ofcourse it opened the door to revolutionaries and fascism because power vacuums in places that were used to absolute power are usually filled by dictators (see Egypt, ??? BCE to Present). 

If Germany were to be beaten down to a point of conquest, no issues. That would have taken another 6 years and mllions more men to accomplish, both of which were not in the cards. 

The same can be said of the Soviets in WWII. The UK/France/US knew that the Russians were looking for Lebensraum just as much as the Nazis were in 1939. The Baltics, Finland, Eastern Poland, the Rush to Berlin.... all of it was a land grab by a totalitarian dictator that just happened to hate the same one we did. The Allies would face that skeleton in the closet eventually, but folks were done with the war, and the chests were empty. 

So here we are, almost 80 years since the end of WWII, facing down the Russians in a European land war no one is equipped for, because we didn't think we could win the short game. Now we play the long game and suffer.


----------



## lenaitch

To the people of 1945, it no doubt felt to them like the end of the long game.   An estimated 70-85 million people dead in six years.  I doubt Main St. USA, Poland, France or the UK would have cheered, or voted, for the 'long game'.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

lenaitch said:


> To the people of 1945, it no doubt felt to them like the end of the long game.   An estimated 70-85 million people dead in six years.  I doubt Main St. USA, Poland, France or the UK would have cheered, or voted, for the 'long game'.


Not to mention all the propaganda about help our Soviet "Allies". Most of the Trade Unions had been infiltrated by that time (not to mention most of the British Government) and the unions might try to pressure governments to back down.


----------



## Skysix

rmc_wannabe said:


> If that's true, its mind boggling there is still popular support in Russia for this folly. Those numbers are higher than the Soviet-Afghan War and Second Chechen War combined....


In the DPR, if 2million is their approximate population, their admitted KIA scaled to the USA would be about 300k with 1.2 MILLION wounded. More than WW2 in US terms. (18:10---)


----------



## Skysix

The Bread Guy said:


> Some reassuring news from Pravda on USSR 2.0 casualties (highlights mine) ...
> View attachment 71714


Note: only Russian contract and career. There are no conscripts there, and Chechnya, Wagner, DPR & LPR losses fon't count.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

lenaitch said:


> To the people of 1945, it no doubt felt to them like the end of the long game.   An estimated 70-85 million people dead in six years.  I doubt Main St. USA, Poland, France or the UK would have cheered, or voted, for the 'long game'.


Oh believe me, the Allies were spent. That's why Churchill and Patton were told their plans were ludicrous and to get stuffed. 

I was merely pointing out that a lot of the time, especially after protected conflicts, we take short term success without looking at long term impacts because we'respent. 

I'm sure it was smiles and sunshine in 1989 for the Reagan Administration when that last BTR-60 rolled out of Afghanistan. Much like I'm sure Senator Biden never thought the USAF would be clearing dead Afghans out of a C-17's wheel well 30 years later because no one looked past the immediate success. 

The second Ukraine is back to its pre 2014 borders, watch. Victory will be declared, rebuilding efforts will commence, and no one will wonder if we need to do any mop up operations; we will pack up, go home, and enjoy the "New Peace Dividend" without a thought to how this war will impact the next.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Reportedly back in UKR hands ....








						Ukraine Says It Has Retaken Infamous Snake Island; Russia Says It Withdrew For 'Goodwill'
					

Ukraine says its forces have forced Russian troops off Snake Island in the Black Sea, a claim Russia denied, with Moscow saying it withdrew its forces as a "gesture of goodwill" to show the country isn't impeding efforts to allow the export of agricultural products.




					www.rferl.org
				



... with RUS state media reporting, "lookit how nice we are"


----------



## rmc_wannabe

It's not a retreat.... it's a tactical withdrawal


----------



## Good2Golf

rmc_wannabe said:


> It's not a retreat.... it's a tactical withdrawal


“Special Rebranding Operation”


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> And remember wounded are likely 3 times that, if not more, so Russia is likely past 100k casualties





The Bread Guy said:


> Reportedly back in UKR hands ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine Says It Has Retaken Infamous Snake Island; Russia Says It Withdrew For 'Goodwill'
> 
> 
> Ukraine says its forces have forced Russian troops off Snake Island in the Black Sea, a claim Russia denied, with Moscow saying it withdrew its forces as a "gesture of goodwill" to show the country isn't impeding efforts to allow the export of agricultural products.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rferl.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ... with RUS state media reporting, "lookit how nice we are"
> View attachment 71720


----------



## Colin Parkinson

At best the UA has put a small team on the island to clear it and to observe. Neither side can hold and resupply a big garrison there. Denying it to each other is the best COA for both sides. Likely any form of shelter, access is mined and booby trapped


----------



## IKnowNothing

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/nato-arms-canada-1.6506611
		


Send vehicles we're done with? No
Send vehicles we're using but need replaced with upgrades? No
Send brand new vehicles and give GDLS-C more business....


----------



## KevinB

IKnowNothing said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/nato-arms-canada-1.6506611
> 
> 
> 
> Send vehicles we're done with? No
> Send vehicles we're using but need replaced with upgrades? No
> Send brand new vehicles and give GDLS-C more business....


Kind of wonder why the APC version not the Infantry version with the 25mm...


----------



## Colin Parkinson

The LAV III would seem to be the better choice for Ukraine, less weight and more mobile than the LAV 6?


----------



## daftandbarmy

IKnowNothing said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/nato-arms-canada-1.6506611
> 
> 
> 
> Send vehicles we're done with? No
> Send vehicles we're using but need replaced with upgrades? No
> Send brand new vehicles and give GDLS-C more business....



Does this mean the CAF don't get their LAVs when they need them? I'm not clear on that....


----------



## Colin Parkinson

KevinB said:


> Kind of wonder why the APC version not the Infantry version with the 25mm...


But they might use that cannon for non-peacekeeping type stuff!!


----------



## KevinB

Colin Parkinson said:


> But they might use that cannon for non-peacekeeping type stuff!!


Yeah kind of the point...


----------



## rmc_wannabe

IKnowNothing said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/nato-arms-canada-1.6506611
> 
> 
> 
> Send vehicles we're done with? No
> Send vehicles we're using but need replaced with upgrades? No
> Send brand new vehicles and give GDLS-C more business.... Make Canada look like it has a robust Defence Industry....


FTFY  This isn't what's best for the CAF, the UA, NATO, or even Canada.

This is theatre and vanity on display.


----------



## KevinB

daftandbarmy said:


> Does this mean the CAF don't get their LAVs when they need them? I'm not clear on that....


It means he's trying to score points by pointing out that the CAF isn't in a shooting war - and the 39 vehicles isn't going to affect readiness issues...


----------



## IKnowNothing

rmc_wannabe said:


> FTFY  This isn't what's best for the CAF, the UA, NATO, or even Canada.
> 
> This is theatre and vanity on display.


Oh agreed. 
If we gave them Coyote's GDLS doesn't get to make anything new.
If we gave them LAV's
    A- the Army would be short
    B- the army might try to replace them with something else

This way the apple cart stays firmly intact, no need for any change but another extension of the infinite sole source.

The announcement should have been for the 40 old coyotes and 2 bn's worth of LAV's to be replaced with a tracked ATGM equipped AFV


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1542547600418775041


----------



## Prairie canuck

oops, already posted re ACSVs deleted link.


----------



## CBH99

rmc_wannabe said:


> FTFY  This isn't what's best for the CAF, the UA, NATO, or even Canada.
> 
> This is theatre and vanity on display.


I agree with you 120%

I can’t believe I’m about to say this, but he did get quoted in the article saying something that didn’t make me raise an eyebrow, clench a fist, zone out completely, or roll my eyes…

Given our current commitments, some of the new armoured vehicles and some sniper rifles/Carl G’s, etc - those weapons _are_ going to be more useful for our collective security in the hands of the Ukrainians right now.  

39 vehicles may not seem like much, but if the maintenance & tech is something new to be absorbed by the UA overall - they’ll have their hands full learning just how to maintain something like a ACSV.  

Although I am curious why they did not send over some older vehicles that need to be replaced… let them learn on those first and put those to good use?


Although his statement that stocks for the Canadian Armed Forces will be a priority for them, and won’t affect readiness…I’ll believe it when I actually see it.  

(is this the same kind of urgency that existed when we had to replace the CF-18’s there Justin?)


----------



## CBH99

KevinB said:


> Kind of wonder why the APC version not the Infantry version with the 25mm...


Right?  My thoughts also…

Is the point to defeat the Russians, and push them back?  Or…like, not?


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Kind of wonder why the APC version not the Infantry version with the 25mm...


I'm guessing like Sir Edmund said:  because they're there.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1542581825649971201


----------



## The Bread Guy

Suuuuuuuuuure they are, RUS state media ....


----------



## MilEME09

Let the kit flow

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1542533803113054208_Mod edit to fix link_


----------



## Maxman1

MilEME09 said:


> There was talk of replacing the M203 with the colt eagle, which is a newer ambidextrous 40mm launcher. As always nothing materialized
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> EAGLE - Colt Canada
> 
> 
> ENHANCED AMBIDEXTROUS GRENADE LAUNCHER Colt Canada EAGLE is a single shot, side-loading, direct fire grenade launcher that incorporates a double-action trigger and features an ambidextrous barrel and controls.  The double-action trigger allows the operator to safely re-strike a misfired...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.coltcanada.com



Always trying to reinvent the wheel and fix what isn't broken.







Colin Parkinson said:


> I am sure GDLS will be happy to continue building new LAV 6's for the CAF to replace ones being shipped to Ukraine. NATO really needs a "Monkey Model" reliable MBT with at least a 120mm to build and supply Allies like Ukraine and others. Bog Standard Leopard 2 hull with a M1A1 turret. Germany builds the hull, UK the suspension, Canada tracks and wheels, Commercial engine.



Maybe make it a Cummins V12 and a modified Leopard 2 hull.


Skysix said:


> So, is that an ability that Canada SHOULD have? And if so  how to go about it and what size/unit capabilities?
> 
> I think as a strand of this thread however it needs a new home...



Maybe use the original idea behind what would become the Airborne Regiment: a battalion ready to go manned by troops attatch posted for up to two years. What went wrong with the Airborne is that concept got thrown out the window by later commanders almost immediately, and it became another regiment, then became a dumping ground for undesirables and a bad culture developed from there.


rmc_wannabe said:


> If that's true, its mind boggling there is still popular support in Russia for this folly. Those numbers are higher than the Soviet-Afghan War and Second Chechen War combined....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Soooooooo, does this mean those Brits & Morrocan sentenced to death get to wait until 2025 to face the firing squad, or is this a bit of a crack opening to allow for a commutation to life/trade?  Via RUS state media ...


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Soooooooo, does this mean those Brits & Morrocan sentenced to death get to wait until 2025 to face the firing squad, or is this a bit of a crack opening to allow for a commutation to life/trade?  Via RUS state media ...
> View attachment 71739


I suspect it’s designed as a carrot/stick threat and allows a lot of wiggle room.   Plus timed to ensure that NATO doesn’t decide to send some SMU’s on a PR mission to recover those persons any time soon.


----------



## daftandbarmy

The Bread Guy said:


> Soooooooo, does this mean those Brits & Morrocan sentenced to death get to wait until 2025 to face the firing squad, or is this a bit of a crack opening to allow for a commutation to life/trade?  Via RUS state media ...
> View attachment 71739



It's probably more about ensuring that frontline, fighting-shy soldiers have an extra incentive for staying at their posts and not deserting...


----------



## CBH99

Maxman1 said:


> Always trying to reinvent the wheel and fix what isn't broken.


Right? 

 I’ve seen American units using something very similar (or could be the same) to the Eagle grenade launcher in the link…

But I have always wondered why more countries don’t use a multi barrel grenade launcher to literally have some death raining from above.  










						Milkor MGL - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org


----------



## KevinB

CBH99 said:


> Right?
> 
> I’ve seen American units using something very similar (or could be the same) to the Eagle grenade launcher in the link…
> 
> But I have always wondered why more countries don’t use a multi barrel grenade launcher to literally have some death raining from above.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Milkor MGL - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.m.wikipedia.org


The USMC issues the M32A1 (Milkor) grenade launcher.  
   Some early issues with fuzing due to the cylinder gap causing velocity bleed - but was identified in 2009 by a intelligent duo of a Gunner and a contractor working for an entirely unrelated USMC sniper rifle program (you’re welcome).


----------



## The Bread Guy

Never mind pulling diplomats - you KNOW relations are bad when ....


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1542486751465414657
And some fireworks for your canada day


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1542938694956507136


----------



## The Bread Guy

Let's see just how NATO-y Turkey is on this one ...








						Ukraine Asks Turkey To Detain Ship Believed To Be Carrying Ukrainian Grain
					

Ukraine has asked Turkey to detain a Russian-flagged cargo ship believed to be carrying Ukrainian grain that Kyiv says set off from Berdyansk, a Ukrainian port occupied by Russian forces.




					www.rferl.org


----------



## CBH99

The Bread Guy said:


> Let's see just how NATO-y Turkey is on this one ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine Asks Turkey To Detain Ship Believed To Be Carrying Ukrainian Grain
> 
> 
> Ukraine has asked Turkey to detain a Russian-flagged cargo ship believed to be carrying Ukrainian grain that Kyiv says set off from Berdyansk, a Ukrainian port occupied by Russian forces.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rferl.org


Hopefully more NATO-y than they were when ISIS was growing exponentially…

Or when 2 of their warships locked weapons on a French warship, getting it to cease a planned boarding of a cargo ship suspected of carrying weapons to Libya…



Genuinely interested to see how Turkey handles this request after it’s objections to Finland & Sweden joining NATO were rebuffed, and they have multiple oil & gas projects currently on the go with Russia.  

My guess?  They will be as good of friends as they always are…


----------



## Colin Parkinson




----------



## daftandbarmy

Colin Parkinson said:


>



Larkhill... I think they're being trained by New Zealanders too...


----------



## Skysix

A flashback, not 100% accurate but still prescient..


----------



## MilEME09

Great read about the battle of Kyiv









						Waterworld: How Ukraine Flooded Three Rivers to Help Save Kyiv - Modern War Institute
					

Off the eastern coast of central Greece sit high cliffs that once served as a narrow access point from the sea to its cities. Popular legend has it that in 480 BCE a small band of Spartan warriors, led by King Leonidas, defended the mountain pass against a much larger Persian army. The defense...




					mwi.usma.edu


----------



## TacticalTea

.


----------



## Portnord

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1542581825649971201


Obviously a fake post. A real Russian press release would have claimed at least 40 teenage mutant ninja turtles eliminated.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Skysix said:


> A flashback, not 100% accurate but still prescient..View attachment 71781


@DarthPutinKGB continues to be good ...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1542845900107702272

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1542845194818781190

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1543173290658861059


----------



## MilEME09

Canada is giving 39 ACSV to Ukraine, I bet this is every one built so far





__





						Defence Minister Anand concludes visit to Madrid, Spain, for the NATO Summit  - Canada.ca
					

Today, Defence Minister Anand concluded a productive visit to Madrid, Spain, where she participated in meetings with counterparts and joined Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit.




					www.canada.ca


----------



## Kat Stevens

MilEME09 said:


> Canada is giving 39 ACSV to Ukraine, I bet this is every one built so far
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Defence Minister Anand concludes visit to Madrid, Spain, for the NATO Summit  - Canada.ca
> 
> 
> Today, Defence Minister Anand concluded a productive visit to Madrid, Spain, where she participated in meetings with counterparts and joined Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.canada.ca


God, that's an ugly looking spud, isn't it?


----------



## RangerRay

Something tells me that the Ukrainians would rather have something with a BFG to blast the orcs back to Mordor with.


----------



## MilEME09

RangerRay said:


> Something tells me that the Ukrainians would rather have something with a BFG to blast the orcs back to Mordor with.


Look at it this way, it's an intro to LAV 6, if they use them well, start sending gun trucks


----------



## The Bread Guy

RangerRay said:


> Something tells me that the Ukrainians would rather have something with a BFG to blast the orcs back to Mordor with.


I'm still confident they'll put these puppies to good use.


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> I'm still confident they'll put these puppies to good use.


I wonder which variants we are sending? My guess would be Armoured ambulances, CPs and TCVs


----------



## TacticalTea

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1542862428970618884
Ukraine publishes an estimate on RU WIAs.

Rule of 3.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

MilEME09 said:


> I wonder which variants we are sending? My guess would be Armoured ambulances, CPs and TCVs


I am of the opinion that the CP variants won't be going anywhere near Ukraine. Far too many bits and bobs installed that would be a bad day to lose to enemy action or capture.


----------



## MJP

rmc_wannabe said:


> I am of the opinion that the CP variants won't be going anywhere near Ukraine. Far too many bits and bobs installed that would be a bad day to lose to enemy action or capture.


I haven't seen the final build plan yet but generally all of the extra bits that are sensitive are applied after manufacturing at the EFDs either by the contractor or CAF folks. 
I've been involved in a few of the post manufacturing aspects in terms of building the kits and then sending them to the EFDs is that was deemed as the more secure route. Or more likely not thought of at the time of contracting and need to be added to be compatible for future systems

There may be more in the CP variants right from The manufacturer that makes it a non-starter to send them anyway like you said


----------



## rmc_wannabe

MJP said:


> I haven't seen the final build plan yet but generally all of the extra bits that are sensitive are applied after manufacturing at the EFDs either by the contractor or CAF folks.
> I've been involved in a few of the post manufacturing aspects in terms of building the kits and then sending them to the EFDs is that was deemed as the more secure route. Or more likely not thought of at the time of contracting and need to be added to be compatible for future systems
> 
> There may be more in the CP variants right from The manufacturer that makes it a non-starter to send them anyway like you said


Without getting too far out into the weeds, the ACSV CP builds were supposed to be as such that the time needed at EFD was greatly reduced, comparatively. No live rounds but more parts thereof than usual.


----------



## MilEME09

rmc_wannabe said:


> Without getting too far out into the weeds, the ACSV CP builds were supposed to be as such that the time needed at EFD was greatly reduced, comparatively. No live rounds but more parts thereof than usual.


So probably amb and tcv then are more likely?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

MilEME09 said:


> So probably amb and tcv then are more likely?


Most likely.


----------



## PuckChaser

rmc_wannabe said:


> I am of the opinion that the CP variants won't be going anywhere near Ukraine. Far too many bits and bobs installed that would be a bad day to lose to enemy action or capture.


Send them some CNR(E) so it gets compromised and we can buy proper Thales, Harris or Racal systems...


----------



## MilEME09

PuckChaser said:


> Send them some CNR(E) so it gets compromised and we can buy proper Thales, Harris or Racal systems...


We really do not want to deliberately let Russia compromise our comms. That said Ukraine needs better get that is less vulnerable to Russian EW. The 710Gs we have scattered about that are made by an Israeli company would work wonders


----------



## PuckChaser

Da, is joke comrade. Much like our CNR(E)s.


----------



## MilEME09

Canadian fighting in Ukraine pleads for more equipment  | Globalnews.ca
					

Matthew McGill, a Canadian Forces veteran from Calgary, arrived in Ukraine in March to fight with the international legion.




					globalnews.ca


----------



## The Bread Guy

You don't _ALWAYS_ get to duck outta duties by being on the hockey team 








						Russian ice hockey player detained over military service charge, RIA reports
					

A Russian ice hockey player under contract with a U.S.-based National Hockey League (NHL) team has been detained in Russia over charges he evaded military service and has since been taken to a military hospital after falling ill, his lawyer told a Russian state news agency.




					www.reuters.com
				



Stay away from the tea and open windows if you're above the second floor, kid.


----------



## KevinB

Hmm 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1543385019288375298


----------



## daftandbarmy

Not quite accurate, but FWIW anyways


----------



## TacticalTea

daftandbarmy said:


> Not quite accurate, but FWIW anyways
> 
> View attachment 71809


Perhaps we need a caveat to Article 5... To be eligible, country has to be a member in good standing.

(delusional, I know)


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Hmm
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1543385019288375298


Yeah, he's had a lot to say the last day or two ...

“Lukashenko: Neither Belarus, nor Russia, or Ukraine needs war” (BLR state media)
“Belarus explains nuke talks with Russia” (RUS state media)
*“Lukashenko: Ukraine attempted to attack Belarus three days ago” (BLR state media)*
*“Lukashenko: Belarus will not go to war with Ukraine” (BLR state media)*
*“Lukashenko promises swift response if Belarus under attack*” (BLR state media)
*“Lukashenko comments on why he requested nuclear-capable weapons from Russia*” (BLR state media)
*“Lukashenko slams Lithuania for violating human rights” (BLR state media)*
*“Lukashenko: Western Europe is raising a monster of Ukraine” (BLR state media)*
*“Great Patriotic War ‘is not over yet’, Lukashenko says” (BLR state media)*
*“Nazism turns into fascism in Ukraine, Lukashenko says” (BLR state media)*
*“Lukashenko Claims Ukraine Tried to Strike Belarus Military Targets, All Missiles Intercepted” (RUS state media)*
*“Ukrainian forces targeted Belarusian military facilities, says Lukashenko” (RUS state media)*
*“Lukashenko: Belarus unwilling to engage in Ukraine conflict, but will respond to invasion” (RUS state media)*
*“Lukashenko: West created monster called Nazi Germany, now is raising another in Ukraine” (RUS state media)*
*“Western neighbors greedily eye border regions of Belarus, Ukraine, says Lukashenko” (RUS state media)*


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> Yeah, he's had a lot to say the last day or two ...
> 
> “Lukashenko: Neither Belarus, nor Russia, or Ukraine needs war” (BLR state media)
> “Belarus explains nuke talks with Russia” (RUS state media)
> *“Lukashenko: Ukraine attempted to attack Belarus three days ago” (BLR state media)*
> *“Lukashenko: Belarus will not go to war with Ukraine” (BLR state media)*
> *“Lukashenko promises swift response if Belarus under attack*” (BLR state media)
> *“Lukashenko comments on why he requested nuclear-capable weapons from Russia*” (BLR state media)
> *“Lukashenko slams Lithuania for violating human rights” (BLR state media)*
> *“Lukashenko: Western Europe is raising a monster of Ukraine” (BLR state media)*
> *“Great Patriotic War ‘is not over yet’, Lukashenko says” (BLR state media)*
> *“Nazism turns into fascism in Ukraine, Lukashenko says” (BLR state media)*
> *“Lukashenko Claims Ukraine Tried to Strike Belarus Military Targets, All Missiles Intercepted” (RUS state media)*
> *“Ukrainian forces targeted Belarusian military facilities, says Lukashenko” (RUS state media)*
> *“Lukashenko: Belarus unwilling to engage in Ukraine conflict, but will respond to invasion” (RUS state media)*
> *“Lukashenko: West created monster called Nazi Germany, now is raising another in Ukraine” (RUS state media)*
> *“Western neighbors greedily eye border regions of Belarus, Ukraine, says Lukashenko” (RUS state media)*


----------



## Skysix

Meet The Shadowy Ukrainian Unit That Sabotages Targets Inside Russia
					

Known as the Shaman Battalion, these Ukraine special operations troops infiltrate into Russian territory to strike key targets.




					www.thedrive.com


----------



## CBH99

MilEME09 said:


> Canadian fighting in Ukraine pleads for more equipment  | Globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> Matthew McGill, a Canadian Forces veteran from Calgary, arrived in Ukraine in March to fight with the international legion.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> globalnews.ca


Good on him.

I had thought on & off about applying in the early stages of the conflict, especially after the Bucha massacre.   One night after reading of some of the atrocities, I went to bed and felt a sense of calm peace resonate when I had ‘decided’ it was time to stop reading & start doing - and get myself over there. 

Obviously I didn’t end up going, nor even googling how to apply…



_Huge respect for the folks who actually followed through and stepped up, especially those with families.  Good on them_


----------



## Maxman1

A buddy from my unit quit and joined what turned to be a warlord group. He's since left and joined the actual Ukrainian Army. Apparently he's now Ukrainian VDV.


----------



## CBH99

Maxman1 said:


> A buddy from my unit quit and joined what turned to be a warlord group. He's since left and joined the actual Ukrainian Army. Apparently he's now Ukrainian VDV.


I wish I could use 😂❤️😅🤨🤨🤨 emojis…

Your body is definitely gonna have some good stories to tell


----------



## MilEME09

Maxman1 said:


> A buddy from my unit quit and joined what turned to be a warlord group. He's since left and joined the actual Ukrainian Army. Apparently he's now Ukrainian VDV.


Actually found out this week my wife's cousin left the CAF and is now in the foreign legion. Was a reserve runner in Vancouver, no idea what his wife thought.....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Maxman1 said:


> A buddy from my unit quit and joined what turned to be a warlord oligarch-funded freedom fighter/defender group ...


These kind of groups helped keep the bad guys at bay in 2014, too - although the professional army is _loads_ better now.


----------



## Remius

Canada first ally to ratify NATO membership bids from Sweden, Finland |  National Newswatch
					

National Newswatch: Canada's most comprehensive site for political news and views. Make it a daily habit.




					www.nationalnewswatch.com


----------



## GR66

Remius said:


> Canada first ally to ratify NATO membership bids from Sweden, Finland |  National Newswatch
> 
> 
> National Newswatch: Canada's most comprehensive site for political news and views. Make it a daily habit.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nationalnewswatch.com


Take THAT rest of NATO.  Let's see you convene as quickly as us!


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Remius said:


> Canada first ally to ratify NATO membership bids from Sweden, Finland |  National Newswatch
> 
> 
> National Newswatch: Canada's most comprehensive site for political news and views. Make it a daily habit.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nationalnewswatch.com


Like the kid who's first to raise their hand, but get every single answer wrong. Points for enthusiasm, but honestly, quit while you're ahead.


----------



## Infanteer

Clearly, Sweden and Finland, as fellow hockey loving countries, used their links through the hockey arena to shape this.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Everyone feeling the "major stir" RUS state media's talking about?


----------



## OldSolduer

Infanteer said:


> Clearly, Sweden and Finland, as fellow hockey loving countries, used their links through the hockey arena to shape this.


The NHL needs those players cause Russians aren't in vogue these days....


----------



## Infanteer

Too bad Bulgaria doesn't play hockey....


----------



## Remius

The Bread Guy said:


> Everyone feeling the "major stir" RUS state media's talking about?
> View attachment 71830


I thought that was last night’s dinner acting up in my gut this morning.  This major stir might have been the real culprit.


----------



## RaceAddict

The Bread Guy said:


> Everyone feeling the "major stir" RUS state media's talking about?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Wonder if this'll nudge Israel into more ... robust support for Ukraine?








						Moscow Orders Jewish Agency to Halt Russia Operations – Reports   - The Moscow Times
					

If confirmed, the measure that could impact thousands of Russian Jews who want to repatriate to Israel.




					www.themoscowtimes.com


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1544472420484091905


----------



## MilEME09

As a result of the war in Ukraine Latvia has reintroduced mandatory military service






						Latvia To Reinstate Compulsory Military Service
					

Latvian Defence Minister Artis Pabriks on Tuesday said the Baltic state will reinstate compulsory military service following growing tension with neighbouring Russia amid Moscow's war in Ukraine.




					www.barrons.com


----------



## CBH99

rmc_wannabe said:


> Like the kid who's first to raise their hand, but get every single answer wrong. Points for enthusiasm, but honestly, quit while you're ahead.


So the orders-in-council pushed things forward so they could be completed within a matter of hours, instead of the usual manner of months?

So really…the government CAN move fast on things when they choose to, and the senior bureaucrats CAN push things through.  It’s just a matter of willpower.  

Let’s take a moment to remember this the next time the government drags something out with minimal results to show in the end.  They CAN choose to ignore the red tape they implement for themselves…


----------



## CBH99

MilEME09 said:


> As a result of the war in Ukraine Latvia has reintroduced mandatory military service
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Latvia To Reinstate Compulsory Military Service
> 
> 
> Latvian Defence Minister Artis Pabriks on Tuesday said the Baltic state will reinstate compulsory military service following growing tension with neighbouring Russia amid Moscow's war in Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.barrons.com


If Russia somehow invaded in the distant future, most of them would find themselves caught in the war doing military type things - whether they have a baseline of military service knowledge or not.  

May as well have everybody understand the basic foundations, so when those bloody Russians tried to invade again - they are success will be similar to how it has been so far in Ukraine 🇺🇦


----------



## The Bread Guy

The Bread Guy said:


> Let's see just how NATO-y Turkey is on this one ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine Asks Turkey To Detain Ship Believed To Be Carrying Ukrainian Grain
> 
> 
> Ukraine has asked Turkey to detain a Russian-flagged cargo ship believed to be carrying Ukrainian grain that Kyiv says set off from Berdyansk, a Ukrainian port occupied by Russian forces.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rferl.org


The latest from RUS independent media 








						Disputed Russian Grain Ship Moves Away from Turkish Coast - The Moscow Times
					

Kyiv claims that the 7,000-ton vessel had set off from Ukraine's Kremlin-occupied port of Berdiansk carrying confiscated wheat.




					www.themoscowtimes.com


----------



## KevinB

Whoops

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1544943352952537088


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> Whoops
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1544943352952537088



"We're a private enterprise operation.... "


----------



## Maxman1

CBH99 said:


> I wish I could use 😂❤️😅🤨🤨🤨 emojis…
> 
> Your body is definitely gonna have some good stories to tell



I'll definitely see to it he never pays for another drink at the mess again.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Whoops
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1544943352952537088


Well, that certainly explains THIS RUS info-machine "look over here instead" ....

“Kyiv sells to Russia Caesar howitzers delivered by France” (pravda.ru)
“How much is a “CAESAR”? We’ll take two” (pro-RUS amplifier)


----------



## The Bread Guy

daftandbarmy said:


> "We're a private enterprise operation.... "


"A DEAL deal ..." #ClassicMovieLines


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1545063346768003073


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1545063346768003073


Ship was already poked in February, so it was sorta floating about ....








						Russian Missile Hits Abandoned Tanker
					

KYIV, July 7 (Reuters) – A Russian missile has hit a tanker that has been drifting in the Black Sea for over four months and had been carrying diesel, the Interfax-Ukraine news...




					gcaptain.com


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1544791677411500032


----------



## Kirkhill

Curious.  EW stepping up?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1544943082633920513


----------



## Kirkhill

But



> Replying to
> @bayraktar_1love
> This is s300 or s400 not Islander, and on the first footage is a successful interception , the second part of the footage is added and is not related to the first part. I'm very pro Ukraine ,but no need for this false footages, it's something Russian propaganda do...


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Doesn't count as EW when its a product deficiency.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

A good view of a Russian tactical railway bridge, complete with +2 Blessing armour


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1545147130641252352


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> As a result of the war in Ukraine Latvia has reintroduced mandatory military service
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Latvia To Reinstate Compulsory Military Service
> 
> 
> Latvian Defence Minister Artis Pabriks on Tuesday said the Baltic state will reinstate compulsory military service following growing tension with neighbouring Russia amid Moscow's war in Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.barrons.com


Taking that a step further (via LVA media)








						Mandatory service plan could be extended to diaspora and all sexes
					

The planned mandatory national defense service is also planned to involve Latvians living abroad and women on a mandatory instead of voluntary basis, Kaspars Galkins, spokesman of the Ministry of Defe...




					eng.lsm.lv


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Kirkhill said:


> Curious.  EW stepping up?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1544943082633920513


May be, but years ago I saw a Blowpipe missile do something similar: launched out of the tube, did a couple 360s and nosedived into the ground.


----------



## MilEME09

And I thought our recruiting was desperate 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1545160731691196418


----------



## The Bread Guy

Via the Kremlin info-machine (archived link), their stats re:  ops since 19 June (15 days to 4 July, when this was shared in English) to "liberate" Luhansk province ...


> ... The total losses of the Ukrainian armed forces amounted to *5,469 personnel, including 2,218 killed and 3,251 wounded;* 196 tanks and other armoured vehicles, 12 aircraft, one helicopter, 69 drones, six long-range surface-to-air missile systems, 97 multiple rocket launchers, 166 field and mortar artillery pieces and 216 vehicles of various purposes ...


As with any info-machine allegation, YMMV ...


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> Via the Kremlin info-machine (archived link), their stats re:  ops since 19 June (15 days to 4 July, when this was shared in English) to "liberate" Luhansk province ...
> 
> As with any info-machine allegation, YMMV ...


So that's upto what, 170% of Ukraines air force now?


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> So that's upto what, 170% of Ukraines air force now?


... or so ...


----------



## Kirkhill

There has been some discussion of what Ukraine still has in the tank.  It seems at least some of it is "off the board".









						Some 1,500 Ukrainian soldiers already in Britain for training – ambassador
					

Some 1,500 Ukrainian soldiers are already in the United Kingdom for training. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> There has been some discussion of what Ukraine still has in the tank.  It seems at least some of it is "off the board".
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Some 1,500 Ukrainian soldiers already in Britain for training – ambassador
> 
> 
> Some 1,500 Ukrainian soldiers are already in the United Kingdom for training. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net


I'm surprised it's being done in the UK and not Poland, I hope the program expands though.


----------



## dapaterson

If the equipment and support are in the UK, it may be easier to train there while simultaneously planning the deployment of equipment and support to UKR without an interim staging in Poland.


----------



## brihard

dapaterson said:


> If the equipment and support are in the UK, it may be easier to train there while simultaneously planning the deployment of equipment and support to UKR without an interim staging in Poland.


Parallel lines of effort not getting each others’ way?


----------



## MilEME09

dapaterson said:


> If the equipment and support are in the UK, it may be easier to train there while simultaneously planning the deployment of equipment and support to UKR without an interim staging in Poland.


Perhaps out of russias eyes as well. Don't forget the Ukrainian navy has been quiet this entire time, been receiving small boats but have been offered Oliver Hazard Perry's, and LCS's. Would be interesting if we randomly saw a Ukrainian task ground sail for the Black sea from the US, start taking out Russian ships on the med. But that's just me dreaming.


----------



## Kirkhill

brihard said:


> Parallel lines of effort not getting each others’ way?



Flight time from Lviv to London - 2.5 hours.

Europe is small.


----------



## brihard

Kirkhill said:


> Flight time from Lviv to London - 2.5 hours.
> 
> Europe is small.


Yup. And doing it in Britain is likely more secure and more easily controlled. Hopefully they’re learning some good kit.


----------



## Eaglelord17

So I was reading that the Russians are shooting about 50-60k of arty rounds a day. With the rocket arty being provided they are pretty active in taking out the Russian ammo dumps, which should seriously effect the resupply of those guns.

But on a other note, how long until those Russian guns are shot out? I have heard roughly 3k guns in service, which if they are shooting that many rounds a day can’t equal much more life in the barrels at this point or am I off here? And if they are almost out of life, how hard is it for the Russians to replace the barrels or do they even have to replace them?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Germany, being Germany again?

"Germany tries to exempt Kaliningrad from EU sanctions - Polish dep FM" (POL media)
"Germany’s Habeck Urges Canada to Help Thwart Putin on Gas" (Bloomberg)


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

The Bread Guy said:


> Germany, being Germany again?
> 
> "Germany tries to exempt Kaliningrad from EU sanctions - Polish dep FM" (POL media)
> "Germany’s Habeck Urges Canada to Help Thwart Putin on Gas" (Bloomberg)


Germany wants good relations with Russia, it's vital for their economy.  German Industry needs cheap Russian natural resources for its manufacturing to remain competitive.


----------



## KevinB

Eaglelord17 said:


> So I was reading that the Russians are shooting about 50-60k of arty rounds a day. With the rocket arty being provided they are pretty active in taking out the Russian ammo dumps, which should seriously effect the resupply of those guns.


Russia does logistics centers like Texas size, so the dumps hit will be a major dent in immediate operations.  
   Russia has committed to another ‘tactical pause’ to reconstitute as of yesterday.   
   They have artillery rounds for year though.  Their dud rates are pretty brutal, and they seem to be chewing through newer ammo rather than much older stock - so one would expect the older stock will have even more issues.   



Eaglelord17 said:


> But on a other note, how long until those Russian guns are shot out? I have heard roughly 3k guns in service, which if they are shooting that many rounds a day can’t equal much more life in the barrels at this point or am I off here? And if they are almost out of life, how hard is it for the Russians to replace the barrels or do they even have to replace them?


Russia will shoot guns long past what Western Armies would - and even longer in combat.   It’s hard to get a good read on when they would consider replacing a barrel at this point - I suspect they won’t do it before they end up with some catastrophic issues, which will also be amplified by using older ammo.  
    They do have stores of parts and still a plethora of even older guns.


----------



## MilEME09

If the rest of your troop runs into a mine field, do you A fall  back, B call for engineers, or C drive forward thinking your comrades got all the mines....oh Russia


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1545351615703556096


----------



## McG

KevinB said:


> Russia will shoot guns long past what Western Armies would - and even longer in combat.


The first negative impact of barrel wear will be accuracy.  Western armies like accurate fires.  Russia compensates for lack of accuracy with volume of fire.


----------



## Underway

MilEME09 said:


> Perhaps out of russias eyes as well. Don't forget the Ukrainian navy has been quiet this entire time, been receiving small boats but have been offered Oliver Hazard Perry's, and LCS's. Would be interesting if we randomly saw a Ukrainian task ground sail for the Black sea from the US, start taking out Russian ships on the med. But that's just me dreaming.


Considering it would take much longer than three months to train an entire navy, not to mention it would require foreign basing to allow those ships to operate in the Med.  I don't see Ukraine resurrecting their navy anything short of the end of the conflict.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Russia does logistics centers like Texas size, so the dumps hit will be a major dent in immediate operations.
> Russia has committed to another ‘tactical pause’ to reconstitute as of yesterday.
> They have artillery rounds for year though.  Their dud rates are pretty brutal, and they seem to be chewing through newer ammo rather than much older stock - so one would expect the older stock will have even more issues.
> 
> 
> Russia will shoot guns long past what Western Armies would - and even longer in combat.   It’s hard to get a good read on when they would consider replacing a barrel at this point - I suspect they won’t do it before they end up with some catastrophic issues, which will also be amplified by using older ammo.
> They do have stores of parts and still a plethora of even older guns.


Somewhere deep in Russia I'm sure there are stocks of old German 150mm's from the Wehrmacht on a list waiting to be called into service.....


----------



## GR66

Underway said:


> Considering it would take much longer than three months to train an entire navy, not to mention it would require foreign basing to allow those ships to operate in the Med.  I don't see Ukraine resurrecting their navy anything short of the end of the conflict.


Also, Turkey has closed the Dardanelles and Bosphorus to the transit of warships under the Montreaux Convention.  No way for any Ukrainian warships not already in the Black Sea to get there (with the exception of small craft that can be delivered by air or overland).


----------



## The Bread Guy

Our fave Austrian colonel briefing about "Luhansk ist gefallen"* (in English) - worth the 16 minutes




* - Would make a bitchin' title for an old-school East German flick on the current Russian campaign in Ukraine


----------



## daftandbarmy

The Bread Guy said:


> Our fave Austrian colonel briefing about "Luhansk ist gefallen"* (in English) - worth the 16 minutes
> 
> 
> 
> 
> * - Would make a bitchin' title for an old-school East German flick on the current Russian campaign in Ukraine



Those poor Austrians. Their self-esteem must be permanently damaged as they don't seem to wear camouflage uniforms


----------



## Skysix

.


----------



## Skysix

The Bread Guy said:


> Our fave Austrian colonel briefing about "Luhansk ist gefallen"* (in English) - worth the 16 minutes
> 
> 
> 
> 
> * - Would make a bitchin' title for an old-school East German flick on the current Russian campaign in Ukraine


Excellent brief as always


----------



## MilEME09

For you gunners


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1545442908941189121


----------



## TacticalTea

WOOOOOOH!

It's GO TIME! 🇺🇲


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1545501703306452995


----------



## MilEME09

TacticalTea said:


> WOOOOOOH!
> 
> It's GO TIME! 🇺🇲
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1545501703306452995


so someone jumped the gun here, because the latest aid package text gives no mention specifically of the MGM-140.


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> so someone jumped the gun here, because the latest aid package text gives no mention specifically of the MGM-140.


Yeah, I realized. Sad.


----------



## The Bread Guy

If this is completely true, there's sanctions, and then there's "sanctions" ....








						Germany confirms positive signal from Canada on Nord Stream 1 turbine
					

Germany on Friday confirmed that the government had received a positive signal from Canada regarding the delivery of a turbine needed for the maintenance of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline to Germany, but could not say that the turbine had been delivered.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1545639125331677186


----------



## The Bread Guy

The Bread Guy said:


> If this is completely true, there's sanctions, and then there's "sanctions" ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Germany confirms positive signal from Canada on Nord Stream 1 turbine
> 
> 
> Germany on Friday confirmed that the government had received a positive signal from Canada regarding the delivery of a turbine needed for the maintenance of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline to Germany, but could not say that the turbine had been delivered.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


... with RUS state media jumping on the story while dissing Canada at the same time


----------



## Skysix

Don't want to hear any BS from MMM about how they should negotiate. Russia is using famine as a weapon against the west's conscience to try to force weaker members to stop arms shipments and push Kiev to negotiate away land AND future security.


----------



## MilEME09

Skysix said:


> Don't want to hear any BS from MMM about how they should negotiate. Russia is using famine as a weapon against the west's conscience to try to force weaker members to stop arms shipments and push Kiev to negotiate away land AND future security.


Russia wants all of Ukraine, remove its people and make it Russian for ever. We can't allow this, and must continue to arm and train Ukraine


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> Don't want to hear any BS from MMM about how they should negotiate. Russia is using famine as a weapon against the west's conscience to try to force weaker members to stop arms shipments and push Kiev to negotiate away land AND future security.



The original definition of "Scorched Earth".


----------



## MilEME09

Russians getting caught by arty


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1545848564265492481


----------



## Kirkhill

Crimean Bridge is target number one for Ukrainian army, general says
					

According to Marchenko, the Ukrainian Armed Forces "must simply cut off this route for bringing up reserves"




					tass.com
				












						U.S. Says Russia's Prized Kerch Bridge Is A Fair Target For Ukrainian Forces
					

The $3.5B bridge Russia built to connect with Crimea is a major strategic and economic asset that Moscow seems very concerned with protecting.




					www.thedrive.com
				












						Russia Seems To Be Preparing The Vital Kerch Bridge For Missile Attacks
					

Deployment of decoy barges and smokescreens implies Russia is preparing for a possible attack on its highly prized Kerch Strait Bridge.




					www.thedrive.com
				




The concern given is that Russia would lose its land link from Rostov to Sevastopol.  I think the greater concern is that Russia could lose its sea link from Rostov to the Black Sea and the world beyond.

Dropping that bridge would be like dropping a chain across the Kerch Channel.  The only other ports for Russia are St Petersburg on the Baltic, Vladivostock on the Pacific and the Kola ports on the Arctic.  The Joint Expeditionary Force nations block St Petersburg and the Kola.  Japan, Korea and the US can block Vladivostock.

Not many options for sea going freight.


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> Crimean Bridge is target number one for Ukrainian army, general says
> 
> 
> According to Marchenko, the Ukrainian Armed Forces "must simply cut off this route for bringing up reserves"
> 
> 
> 
> 
> tass.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> U.S. Says Russia's Prized Kerch Bridge Is A Fair Target For Ukrainian Forces
> 
> 
> The $3.5B bridge Russia built to connect with Crimea is a major strategic and economic asset that Moscow seems very concerned with protecting.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedrive.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia Seems To Be Preparing The Vital Kerch Bridge For Missile Attacks
> 
> 
> Deployment of decoy barges and smokescreens implies Russia is preparing for a possible attack on its highly prized Kerch Strait Bridge.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedrive.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The concern given is that Russia would lose its land link from Rostov to Sevastopol.  I think the greater concern is that Russia could lose its sea link from Rostov to the Black Sea and the world beyond.
> 
> Dropping that bridge would be like dropping a chain across the Kerch Channel.  The only other ports for Russia are St Petersburg on the Baltic, Vladivostock on the Pacific and the Kola ports on the Arctic.  The Joint Expeditionary Force nations block St Petersburg and the Kola.  Japan, Korea and the US can block Vladivostock.
> 
> Not many options for sea going freight.




It is attributed to Lenin that you can get the capitalist to buy the rope with which you can hang him.   In the Kerch case the Russians may have built the chain with which you can blockade them.


----------



## CBH99

The Bread Guy said:


> Ship was already poked in February, so it was sorta floating about ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian Missile Hits Abandoned Tanker
> 
> 
> KYIV, July 7 (Reuters) – A Russian missile has hit a tanker that has been drifting in the Black Sea for over four months and had been carrying diesel, the Interfax-Ukraine news...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> gcaptain.com


“Let’s shoot up a tanker with a missile, especially one filled with diesel fuel!”

Between all the wheat that Ukraine will not be exporting to Russia this year, as well as the drastic reduction in seafood consumption from that area if the tanker does release it’s diesel… it’s almost like the Russia needs to start thinking this through a little more? 

Hitting that ship benefitted no one, yet will affect everyone - including themselves.  




Skysix said:


> Don't want to hear any BS from MMM about how they should negotiate. Russia is using famine as a weapon against the west's conscience to try to force weaker members to stop arms shipments and push Kiev to negotiate away land AND future security.


You’d think there would be enough grass fires from an artillery duel in the countryside, there wouldn’t be a need to deliberately set more fires ablaze.  

Bit of an odd strategy since Russia seems keen to ship those same agriculture products to…themselves… amid a record breaking wheat shortage forecast for this year from it’s own production.  


I’m probably missing something…??


----------



## Kirkhill

CBH99 said:


> “Let’s shoot up a tanker with a missile, especially one filled with diesel fuel!”
> 
> Between all the wheat that Ukraine will not be exporting to Russia this year, as well as the drastic reduction in seafood consumption from that area if the tanker does release it’s diesel… it’s almost like the Russia needs to start thinking this through a little more?
> 
> Hitting that ship benefitted no one, yet will affect everyone - including themselves.
> 
> 
> 
> You’d think there would be enough grass fires from an artillery duel in the countryside, there wouldn’t be a need to deliberately set more fires ablaze.
> 
> Bit of an odd strategy since Russia seems keen to ship those same agriculture products to…themselves… amid a record breaking wheat shortage forecast for this year from it’s own production.
> 
> 
> I’m probably missing something…??



Russians don't need wheat.  You can make vodka from potatoes.


----------



## CBH99

Kirkhill said:


> Russians don't need wheat.  You can make vodka from potatoes.


Ooooohhhhhhh…. Well, this all makes perfect sense now….


----------



## MilEME09

Here's how to take down the bridge, load a civilian ship with explosives, auto pilot it into the bridge, and boom


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Interesting


----------



## The Bread Guy

It appears to be official ...








						Canada sends back blocked Russian turbine to Germany
					

The Ukrainian government and the Ukrainian Canadian Congress oppose the decision, saying it undermines Canada’s commitment to full-scale sanctions against Russia




					www.theglobeandmail.com
				



... and in the hopes that people will look elsewhere ...





						Minister Joly announces Canada’s intent to further sanction key Russian economic sectors - Canada.ca
					

The Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today announced that Canada intends to impose further sanctions in relation to Russia’s illegal and unjustifiable invasion of Ukraine. These sanctions build on the extensive sanctions that Canada continues to impose on the Russian regime...




					www.canada.ca


----------



## The Bread Guy

The Bread Guy said:


> Soooooooo, does this mean those Brits & Morrocan sentenced to death get to wait until 2025 to face the firing squad, or is this a bit of a crack opening to allow for a commutation to life/trade?  Via RUS state media ...
> View attachment 71739


The latest on this one, from Donetsk separatist rebels' info-machine ...

Also, unconfirmed word from a pro-RUS (maybe FSB backed?) amplifier on a couple of Azov regiment folks dinged for the firing squad, too - no other reports elsewhere as of this post, so caveat lector ...


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> The latest on this one, from Donetsk separatist rebels' info-machine ...
> View attachment 71916
> Also, unconfirmed word from a pro-RUS (maybe FSB backed?) amplifier on a couple of Azov regiment folks dinged for the firing squad, too - no other reports elsewhere as of this post, so caveat lector ...
> View attachment 71917



So will the Ukrainians still be handing out meat pies and arranging free phonecalls home for captured conscripts?  Or should we be expecting more poisoned pies and summary justice in the field?









						Locals in Ukraine give food to Russian soldier, help him video call his mother; watch video here
					

In the now-viral video, a young Russian soldier can be seen sipping some tea and consuming bread as he tries to calm himself down




					www.firstpost.com
				












						Two Russian soldiers die and 28 are in hospital ‘after being fed poisoned pies’
					

Two Russian soldiers have died after eating “poisoned” pies that had been gifted to them by Ukrainian citizens, a Ukrainian intelligence agency has claimed.




					www.standard.co.uk


----------



## rmc_wannabe

The Bread Guy said:


> The latest on this one, from Donetsk separatist rebels' info-machine ...
> View attachment 71916
> Also, unconfirmed word from a pro-RUS (maybe FSB backed?) amplifier on a couple of Azov regiment folks dinged for the firing squad, too - no other reports elsewhere as of this post, so caveat lector ...
> View attachment 71917


Look veeeeery closely at the language used throughout.

Mercenary, Nazi, terrorist, participating in a coup....

The Russians and their puppet governments are doing everything in their power to paint them as terrorists and guerilla fighters, thus, unlawful combatants. 

They're completely denying Ukraine is a nation, with its own Armed Forces, or considered a party to the Geneva Conventions.


----------



## MilEME09

rmc_wannabe said:


> Look veeeeery closely at the language used throughout.
> 
> Mercenary, Nazi, terrorist, participating in a coup....
> 
> The Russians and their puppet governments are doing everything in their power to paint them as terrorists and guerilla fighters, thus, unlawful combatants.
> 
> They're completely denying Ukraine is a nation, with its own Armed Forces, or considered a party to the Geneva Conventions.


Exactly this goes straight to the Russian matra of denying Ukraine as a nation, and as a people exist


----------



## The Bread Guy

rmc_wannabe said:


> Look veeeeery closely at the language used throughout.
> 
> Mercenary, Nazi, terrorist, participating in a coup....
> 
> The Russians and their puppet governments are doing everything in their power to paint them as terrorists and guerilla fighters, thus, unlawful combatants.
> 
> They're completely denying Ukraine is a nation, with its own Armed Forces, or considered a party to the Geneva Conventions.


Doing that from WAY before 24 Feb D-Day.


----------



## PuckChaser

This is exactly why ICC should be trying war crimes, not Ukraine Government or Russia/Puppet pseudo governments.


----------



## Kirkhill

> the two terms _oukraina_ україна "territory" and окраїна _okraina_ "borderland". Both are derived from _kraj_ "division, border, land parcel, territory" but with a difference in preposition, _ou_ (у) meaning "in" vs. _o_ (о) meaning "about, around"; *_ukrai_ and *_ukraina_ would then mean "a _separated_ land parcel, a _separate_ part of a tribe's territory".



The closest English word, I think, would be "March"  as in the Anglo-Welsh Marches, the Anglo-Scots Marches, or Dane Mark (Denmark), la Marche county between langue d'oc and langue d'oil in France, The Marches in Italy, the Spanish Marches or even the Low Countries.

These were inhabited regions of mixed populations that were claimed by distant governments who could not exercise control.  

Nothing changes much.


----------



## FJAG

PuckChaser said:


> This is exactly why ICC should be trying war crimes, not Ukraine Government or Russia/Puppet pseudo governments.


Neither Ukraine nor Russia (nor the US for that matter) are State Parties to the Rome Statute.

🍻


----------



## PuckChaser

FJAG said:


> Neither Ukraine nor Russia (nor the US for that matter) are State Parties to the Rome Statute.
> 
> 🍻


Doesn't make it right for parties in a conflict to try opposing lawful combatants.


----------



## The Bread Guy

PuckChaser said:


> This is exactly why ICC should be trying war crimes, not Ukraine Government or Russia/Puppet pseudo governments.


Russia and its vassal separatists have at least _said_ they wanted their own "international" tribunals (_The Guardian_ link) * - with USSR 2.0 state media even talking about an "International Public Tribunal on Ukraine" with reps from 20 countries gathering evidence & bringing it back to their home countries (archived link) and a chair announcing himself via Telegram - but funny how all that ended up working out, eh?

* - One USSR 2.0 official said late last month (Google Cache link to RUS source) that an international tribunal for crimes in Donbas "may include representatives of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), BRICS and Commonwealth of Independent States." Balanced list, no?


----------



## brihard

PuckChaser said:


> This is exactly why ICC should be trying war crimes, not Ukraine Government or Russia/Puppet pseudo governments.



ICC is a ‘court of last resort’. It’s only intended to take charge of a prosecution where other effective and legitimate mechanisms don’t exist. If Ukrainian criminal law is sufficient to prosecute war criminals, that would exclude the ICC. Alternatively I could easily see an International Criminal Tribunal for Ukraine akin to what was seen for Rwanda and Yugoslavia.



FJAG said:


> Neither Ukraine nor Russia (nor the US for that matter) are State Parties to the Rome Statute.
> 
> 🍻



No, but the Rome Statute allows a state to essentially ‘invite’ ICC jurisdiction for crimes committed on its territory or by its nationals. Ukraine has done so. The ICC has the necessary legal authority to prosecute war crimes in Ukraine, contingent on what I said above.






						Ukraine
					






					www.icc-cpi.int
				




It remains to be seen whether Ukraine will prosecute war crimes entirely domestically, whether an ad hoc international tribunal will be established, whether the ICC will launch any prosecutions, or how these three will combine. I expect any war crimes on Ukrainian soil will also be offences under Ukrainian criminal law, so they’ll get first kick at the cat.


----------



## RangerRay

I thought the Geneva Convention prohibited putting POW’s on trial. How does that square with prosecuting POW’s with legitimate war crimes? I seriously don’t know.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

RangerRay said:


> I thought the Geneva Convention prohibited putting POW’s on trial. How does that square with prosecuting POW’s with legitimate war crimes? I seriously don’t know.


@FJAG  Please feel free to jump in. I remember maybe 40 slides from the Military Law DLN: 

The Geneva Convention prevents POWs to be put on trial individually for the "crimes of aggression" or the collective actions of their nation (fighting in a war...essentially... isnt a crime if there is a legitimate "war" going on. )

For example, being put on trial as a POW for individual actions or war crimes such as looting, rape, murder etc. are not prohibited; essentially because the belief is that you'd be receiving similar punishment once returned to your homeland at the close of hostilities. The big thing is transparency of the party conducting the trial, if the POW is tried fairly with competent legal representation,  and the punishment not being defined as overtly harsh or unreasonable

POWs being tried individually simply for being a party to the conflict is not allowed. Reclassifying a soldier from being a POW to being an unlawful combatant for expediency is also a war crime.

Russia is very much playing the game with an entirely different set of rules. They're trying to find every loophole to justify their crimes and it's frightening that it isn't evoking more of a response from the West.


----------



## MilEME09

Ammo depot went up in Occupied Donetsk about an hour ago, so large they are evacuating the near by town


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1545962678375555073

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1545959398899687424


----------



## Kirkhill

PuckChaser said:


> Doesn't make it right for parties in a conflict to try opposing lawful combatants.


The problem, as it was with the Japanese, is in defining whose law applies.


----------



## FJAG

rmc_wannabe said:


> For example, being put on trial as a POW for individual actions or war crimes such as looting, rape, murder etc. are not prohibited; essentially because the belief is that you'd be receiving similar punishment once returned to your homeland at the close of hostilities. The big thing is transparency of the party conducting the trial, if the POW is tried fairly with competent legal representation, and the punishment not being defined as overtly harsh or unreasonable


It's lengthy and complex but in short the Geneva Conventions require national legislation dealing with the issue. Every country must makes laws to deal with these issues. In Canada, the Geneva Conventions Act is the governing legislation and it basically provides that POWs in Canadian custody are subject to the Code of Service Discipline and can be tried for any Federal offence in Canadian Law (including and especially the CCC) committed by them at any time or place which is a Grave Breach under the GC



> Art. 50. Grave breaches to which the preceding Article relates shall be those involving any of the following acts, if committed against persons or property protected by the Convention: wilful killing, torture or inhuman treatment, including biological experiments, wilfully causing great suffering or serious injury to body or health, and extensive destruction and appropriation of property, not justified by military necessity and carried out unlawfully and wantonly.


Basically, use of force in the performance of military duties and within the limits of the law of war are not included and POWs are immune from prosecution for what would be lawful acts for a combatant under the LOAC. For those acts which fall into the Grave Breach category, the Act sets out a framework for the judicial proceedings. In addition, there are regulations which provide for a hearing system to determine if a given individual in fact meets the status of POW.

The CSD determines what liability a POW has for illegal acts or disciplinary infractions committed while in custody.

Edited to add that there is an obligation to search out and try individuals who have committed grave breaches:



> Each High Contracting Party shall be under the obligation to search for persons alleged to have committed, or to have ordered to be committed [grave breaches of the 1949 Geneva Conventions], and shall bring such persons, regardless of their nationality, before its own courts. It may also, if it prefers, and in accordance with the provisions of its own legislation, hand such persons over for trial to another High Contracting Party concerned, provided such High Contracting Party has made out a _prima facie_ case.



🍻


----------



## MilEME09

The initial boom


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1545940156145979393


----------



## Kirkhill

More unconventional improvements from Ukraine.  Plastic and 3D printers?

Video at link.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vv8nbw


----------



## Kirkhill

This thread from Thomas Theiner on artillery and logistics is really worth the effort.









						Thomas C. Theiner (@noclador)
					

The sound of russian ammo blowing up in Donetsk.  What does this mean for russian logistics? A thread 🧵:   Since 2014-15 russia built dozens of ammo dumps hidden in civilian buildings near railway stations in the parts of Ukraine it occupies.  1/n




					nitter.net


----------



## Kirkhill

Please sir, can we have some Vipers and Venoms too?









						Україна отримала від Чехії ескадрилью ударних Мі-24 – The Wall Street Journal  | Defense Express
					

Чехи готові нам дати ще більше радянських вертольотів, але в обмін на прискорення поставок американських UH-1Y Venom та AH-1Z Viper




					defence-ua.com


----------



## Kirkhill

The aim is Transnistria.  And that is not on for the Italians.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1545773448823296000


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukrainian raw recruits training in UK






And why they are necessary


----------



## Kirkhill

The reason the HIMARS are being fed in slowly.

1 securing the maintenance and logistics are in place
2 the vehicles are more rugged than the crews - the vehicle operates 24/7 - the crew needs rest - therefore multiple crews per vehicle.

One up for @FJAG I would say.  1 M777 crew = 3 shifts on a HIMARS.









						Eight Units of HIMARS In Ukraine, Four More On the Way: the Pentagon Explained What Complicates to Send More | Defense Express
					

No matter how many HIMARS Ukraine needs, the main issue in the number of these systems is logistics




					en.defence-ua.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Rumours of Russians using S300 SAMs in surface to surface mode?  Someone's hurting if true.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vv13uz


----------



## The Bread Guy

Canada:  JUST this one time (and we can pull it back, ya know), we're going to let some sanctioned hardware get to where it's going and keep allowing RUS energy to get through ....

CAN-UKR lobby group response?  *"Canada’s Government bows to Russia’s blackmail"*


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> The problem, as it was with the Japanese, is in defining whose law applies.


My Grandfather was involved in some prosecutions of Japanese forces after the war (he had been a lawyer before the war, and oddly the CA used him as a lawyer after the war).  
   Like Nuremberg, the victor sets the rules, and the Japanese war crime trials where not significantly different, with the exception that the Military leadership was held exclusively accountable not the Political/Imperial.  

Generally one doesn’t conduct war crime trials during hostilities, it’s usually a losing proposition, as it backfires into making more problems. Soldiers are less likely to surrender if they know bad things will happen…


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Canada:  JUST this one time (and we can pull it back, ya know), we're going to let some sanctioned hardware get to where it's going and keep allowing RUS energy to get through ....
> View attachment 71926
> CAN-UKR lobby group response?  *"Canada’s Government bows to Russia’s blackmail"*


SMFHAAWUIB 
(smashing my fucking head against a wall until it bleeds) 

JFC Canada WTF are you thinking.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> SMFHAAWUIB
> (smashing my fucking head against a wall until it bleeds)
> 
> JFC Canada WTF are you thinking.


We know which side won the wishbone pull:  stay hard on sanctions vs. helping out Europe.


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> We know which side won the wishbone pull:  stay hard on sanctions vs. helping out Europe.


Maybe one could do both with a little more thought, and not help Russia at the same time.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Maybe one could do both with a little more thought, and not help Russia at the same time.


"A little more thought"?  #DareToDream


----------



## RangerRay

KevinB said:


> SMFHAAWUIB
> (smashing my fucking head against a wall until it bleeds)
> 
> JFC Canada WTF are you thinking.


About the same as not withdrawing our diplomatic staff from Moscow…


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> "A little more thought"?  #DareToDream



Canada declaring its loyalties - Franco-German EU over Anglo-Baltic JEF and AUKUS.  Trudeau has his personal proclivities and inclinations.


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> Canada declaring its loyalties - Franco-German EU over Anglo-Baltic JEF and AUKUS.  Trudeau has his personal proclivities and inclinations.



G7 Grouping

Canada Germany France EU1 EU2              Italy              US            UK           Japan

NATO Grouping

BeNeLux -  Coal and Steel Community - Canada

GIUK-Scandinavia-Baltics-Slavs

The Med

The Balkans

Turkey

US


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Kirkhill said:


> Trudeau has his personal proclivities and inclinations.


Can he fucking keep them to himself then?


----------



## Dana381

rmc_wannabe said:


> Can he fucking keep them to himself then?



No, it's against his religion. Liberals must convert everyone to liberalism by whatever means necessary!


----------



## KevinB

Dana381 said:


> No, it's against his religion. Liberals must convert everyone to liberalism by whatever means necessary!


Too bad he wouldn’t go for tea with Vlad


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> SMFHAAWUIB
> (smashing my fucking head against a wall until it bleeds)
> 
> JFC Canada WTF are you thinking.


Listening to a few podcasts and energy experts this one turbine actually doesn't matter much, as Nordstream 1 has multiple turbines, they would just run the other two at a higher rating for longer without deep maintenance. That said I wanna know why Germany thinks sanctions shouldn't apply for them.


----------



## brihard

I suspect the issue is more the grief it would cause us with Germany than us giving a rat's ass about Russia's wants. Germany and western Europe can't cold turkey off Russian gas; it needs to be weaned. I expect a lot of consideration went into the decision to return the turbine. I don't _like_ it, but I'll allow for the possibility that, in the balance, it may be a _correct_ one.

I'd need to do a pretty deep dive into the sanctions regulations to figure out if, legally, the turbines would even be caught by the existing sanctions. I'm not sure if those turbines are supposed to be operating in Germany, or if they returned to Germany from Russia for maintenance then got sent here. I have real experience in interpreting the application of sanctions under the Special Economic Measures Act, and it's not always particularly clear or straightforward. This isn't something that can be meaningfully determined using Twitter character limits. It may well be that the Special Economic Measures (Russia) Regulations would proscribe this particular transaction, but ministerial permits exist to allow for situations where other interests are at stake. But from the minister's statement it's not clear if this is a sanctions exemption permit or simply an export permit; at first glance I lean towards the latter, as the federal regulation allowing for a sanctions exemption permit vests that power in the Minister of Foreign Affairs, not the Minister of Natural Resources (which Wilkinson is). It's just a weird tidbit that doesn't add up and I'm not sure what to make of it.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

KevinB said:


> Too bad he wouldn’t go for tea with Vlad


Even Vlad won't waste his special tea on him, Vlad knows he can do more damage to Canada and NATO, than the Russians can currently do.


----------



## Kirkhill

brihard said:


> I suspect the issue is more the grief it would cause us with Germany than us giving a rat's ass about Russia's wants. Germany and western Europe can't cold turkey off Russian gas; it needs to be weaned. I expect a lot of consideration went into the decision to return the turbine. I don't _like_ it, but I'll allow for the possibility that, in the balance, it may be a _correct_ one.
> 
> I'd need to do a pretty deep dive into the sanctions regulations to figure out if, legally, the turbines would even be caught by the existing sanctions. I'm not sure if those turbines are supposed to be operating in Germany, or if they returned to Germany from Russia for maintenance then got sent here. I have real experience in interpreting the application of sanctions under the Special Economic Measures Act, and it's not always particularly clear or straightforward. This isn't something that can be meaningfully determined using Twitter character limits. It may well be that the Special Economic Measures (Russia) Regulations would proscribe this particular transaction, but ministerial permits exist to allow for situations where other interests are at stake. But from the minister's statement it's not clear if this is a sanctions exemption permit or simply an export permit; at first glance I lean towards the latter, as the federal regulation allowing for a sanctions exemption permit vests that power in the Minister of Foreign Affairs, not the Minister of Natural Resources (which Wilkinson is). It's just a weird tidbit that doesn't add up and I'm not sure what to make of it.



I'm more intrigued by how quickly it will take for Canada to start permitting the construction of hydrocarbon export systems now that Germany is asking for them.  Will our hydrocarbons suddenly become green, with special dispensations, sustainable, responsible?  Will the German Green Party take its new pragmatism with respect to Russia and apply it to Canada?  This inquiring mind wants to know.


----------



## RangerRay

Dana381 said:


> No, it's against his religion. Liberals must convert everyone to liberalism Tru-anon cultism by whatever means necessary!


FYFY. The LPC embodies illiberal progressivism nowadays.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Thanks for more of the rest of the story, Brihard!


brihard said:


> ... It may well be that the Special Economic Measures (Russia) Regulations would proscribe this particular transaction, but ministerial permits exist to allow for situations where other interests are at stake. But from the minister's statement it's not clear if this is a sanctions exemption permit or simply an export permit ...


I haven't read the legislation or regs myself, but the wording used in the statement suggests to me something like "we'll open the window this once for a bit, but we can always shut it again" kinda mechanism.


----------



## brihard

The Bread Guy said:


> Thanks for more of the rest of the story, Brihard!
> 
> I haven't read the legislation or regs myself, but the wording used in the statement suggests to me something like "we'll open the window this once for a bit, but we can always shut it again" kinda mechanism.


There’s definitely a ministerial permit mechanism under the SEMA- but this guy’s the wrong minister for that, I think. I haven’t deep-dived this though.


----------



## Skysix

Colin Parkinson said:


> Interesting


Seems like a no brainer to swap for metal links


----------



## suffolkowner

Kirkhill said:


> I'm more intrigued by how quickly it will take for Canada to start permitting the construction of hydrocarbon export systems now that Germany is asking for them.  Will our hydrocarbons suddenly become green, with special dispensations, sustainable, responsible?  Will the German Green Party take its new pragmatism with respect to Russia and apply it to Canada?  This inquiring mind wants to know.


I feel this ship sailed long ago unfortunately


----------



## Kirkhill

Right hand....



> Jul 01, 2022​Ottawa signals fresh interest in East Coast LNG exports as European gas crisis deepens​The tides may finally be turning in favour of LNG exports from Atlantic Canada











						Ottawa signals fresh interest in East Coast LNG exports as European gas crisis deepens
					

The tides may finally be turning in favour of LNG exports from Atlantic Canada




					financialpost.com
				




Left hand....



> The Canadian Government Will Not Fund New LNG Terminals​By Irina Slav - Jul 04, 2022, 9:20 AM CDT
> 
> Demand for LNG has soared since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with the EU looking to North America to provide new supply.
> According to Canada's Natural Resources Minister, Canada will not financially support the two new LNG export projects that have been proposed.
> The Canadian government claims that it is ready to assist in negotiations with prospective German buyers, but will not provide financial assistance.











						The Canadian Government Will Not Fund New LNG Terminals | OilPrice.com
					

Canada's Natural Resources Minister has made it clear that the government will not help fund new LNG export projects




					oilprice.com
				





The curious thing is nobody has ever asked the Canadian Government to invest.  Not even in the Transmountain Pipeline.  All anybody asked was for them to keep the heck out of the way.  There are plenty of willing investors looking for secure investments that will not be subject to whims and vagaries.


----------



## The Bread Guy

UKR's foreign affairs ministry on Canada's turbine decision ....

"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine and the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine express their deep disappointment in connection with the decision of the Canadian government to issue a permit for the return to Germany of the Nord Stream 1 turbines repaired by Siemens Canada.

On the day when Canada announced this decision, the army of the russian federation shelled residential quarters in Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, Kryvyi Rih, as well as a number of settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region. The russian federation acted as a terrorist state, deliberately striking houses and other objects of civilian infrastructure. Peaceful people died, dozens were injured.

The international community, including Canada, has already imposed a number of serious sanctions against russia to stop its war against Ukraine. Ukraine is grateful for these decisive actions.

At the same time, the latest Canadian-German agreement and the decision announced on its basis is the adjustment of the sanctions regime to the whims of russia. This dangerous precedent violates international solidarity, goes against the principle of the rule of law and will have only one consequence: it will strengthen moscow's sense of impunity.

russia is able continue to supply gas to Germany in full without this turbine.

Firstly, the Nord Stream 1 compressor station is equipped with several turbines, including backup ones. One of the turbines is currently in Canada. However, according to gazprom's decision, only three turbines are currently operating, several others have been turned off without explanation. Transportation volumes have been reduced by russia from 167 to 67 million cubic meters (mcm) of gas per day.

Secondly, russia is able to continue uninterrupted gas supplies to the EU even if for some reason transportation through Nord Stream 1 is impossible. In particular, russia can use the transit capacity through Ukraine that gazprom has already paid for. Currently, gazprom uses less than 40% of the contracted capacity.

Within the current contract, gazprom can supply an additional 67 mcm per day. In addition, it can reserve up to 135 mcm per day of additional capacity to meet the gas needs of the European market. This route has traditionally supplied the main volumes of gas for Germany, Italy, Austria and other countries of the region. Thus, Ukraine can completely replace Nord Stream 1.

Finally, there is a route through Poland, capable of transporting up to 90 mcm of gas per day. russia has opted out of its use and can resume gas transport to Germany if it really wants to remain a reliable supplier to the EU.

Thus, russia's demand for the mandatory return of the turbine to continue gas transportation is a blackmail that has no technical justification.

Ukraine has provided comprehensive explanations to the German and Canadian governments. Both of the sides have confirmed that they understand that russia's demand has no technical basis.

However, the decision to make a concession to russia's groundless demands has been made.

The transfer of the Nord Stream-1 turbine will allow russia to continue to use energy as a tool of hybrid warfare against Europe.

We call on the Canadian government to reconsider this decision and ensure the integrity of the sanctions regime.

There can be no exceptions when it comes to holding russia accountable for tens of thousands of murdered Ukrainians, hundreds of thousands of destroyed infrastructure objects, millions of internally displaced persons and refugees, and an undisguised attack on democracy and the rule of law around the world."


----------



## suffolkowner

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1546136682918846464
fewer than ten, disgusting


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1546136682918846464
> fewer than ten, disgusting


Be a shame if some one in the department messed up the paper work causing a delay in it going back.....


----------



## Skysix

MilEME09 said:


> Be a shame if some one in the department messed up the paper work causing a delay in it going back.....


Or if no commercial carrier would accept the freight


----------



## Skysix

Starting to look like the Russian army and the US navy are "cousins"...









						Heavy weather just took out an F/A-18 Super Hornet
					

The Navy is reviewing whether or not to even decide to recover the jet after "unexpected" weather conditions blew it off the deck of the aircraft carrier.




					taskandpurpose.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, while Canada works to get the turbine(s?) back ....








						Russia Temporarily Halts Gas Shipments To Germany For Pipeline Work, But Some Fear Longer Suspension
					

Russia says it will suspend shipments of natural gas to Germany on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for 10 days beginning on July 11 as it conducts annual maintenance work.




					www.rferl.org
				











						Russia Halts Nord Stream Gas Supplies to Europe - The Moscow Times
					

The suspension comes as Europe worries of an extended shutdown over its response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.




					www.themoscowtimes.com


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Skysix said:


> Or if no commercial carrier would accept the freight


Or if This Union that represents the Siemens workers happened to threaten strike action....


----------



## KevinB

rmc_wannabe said:


> Or if This Union that represents the Siemens workers happened to threaten strike action....


Or if they ‘accidentally’ ruin them during refurbishment…


----------



## Kirkhill

More on Brits training Ukrainians in Britain

This is a battalion set of 600 civilians being converted in the Manchester region

Weapons handling, first aid, voice procedures, fieldcraft, LOAC.  All in weeks, not months.

British target is 10,000 in 120 days.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Kirkhill said:


> I'm more intrigued by how quickly it will take for Canada to start permitting the construction of hydrocarbon export systems now that Germany is asking for them.  Will our hydrocarbons suddenly become green, with special dispensations, sustainable, responsible?  Will the German Green Party take its new pragmatism with respect to Russia and apply it to Canada?  This inquiring mind wants to know.


Without roadblocks, the Pre-environmental assessment stage will take a year of prep minimum, the EA review will likely take two years. Once Cabinet approves it, then the regulatory review, permitting and consultation will take another year to get the initial start projects underway. You need Federal permits for:

Export Licence
Fisheries
Impact Assessment Act approval
Canadian Navigable Waters Act approvals
If the pipeline is inter provincial, then National Energy Board approval

Then Provincial approval/permits

Exploration permits
land transfers
Water crossing permits
Fish salvage permits
Water use permits
Cutting permits for access roads and right of ways for pipeline and transmission line
Archaeology exploration permits
explosive permits including magazine/manufacturing
Mine permits for rock quarries
Road use permits
There are others I have missed

Remember each permit requires consultation with the impacted FN(s) on top of the overall consultation for the overall project.


----------



## GK .Dundas

Kirkhill said:


> More on Brits training Ukrainians in Britain
> 
> This is a battalion set of 600 civilians being converted in the Manchester region
> 
> Weapons handling, first aid, voice procedures, fieldcraft, LOAC.  All in weeks, not months.
> 
> British target is 10,000 in 120 days.


Funny if you asked NDHQ to do the same thing in order to produce 10,000 troops.
They would take a year to 18 months to produce a study proving how utterly impossible it would be for anyone to possibly do this..
Expect said report to be between 1000 to 1200 pages in length.


----------



## Kirkhill

GK .Dundas said:


> Funny if you asked NDHQ to do the same thing in order to produce 10,000 troops.
> They would take a year to 18 months to produce a study proving how utterly impossible it would be for anyone to possibly do this..
> Expect said report to be between 1000 to 1200 pages in length.





Colin Parkinson said:


> Without roadblocks, the Pre-environmental assessment stage will take a year of prep minimum, the EA review will likely take two years. Once Cabinet approves it, then the regulatory review, permitting and consultation will take another year to get the initial start projects underway. You need Federal permits for:
> 
> Export Licence
> Fisheries
> Impact Assessment Act approval
> Canadian Navigable Waters Act approvals
> If the pipeline is inter provincial, then National Energy Board approval
> 
> Then Provincial approval/permits
> 
> Exploration permits
> land transfers
> Water crossing permits
> Fish salvage permits
> Water use permits
> Cutting permits for access roads and right of ways for pipeline and transmission line
> Archaeology exploration permits
> explosive permits including magazine/manufacturing
> Mine permits for rock quarries
> Road use permits
> There are others I have missed
> 
> Remember each permit requires consultation with the impacted FN(s) on top of the overall consultation for the overall project.


Funny that these two posts should end up back to back.  Colin gives the answer to G.K.'s question.  The Canadian Way.

Colin - how long to get things done the C.D. Howe way?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Kirkhill said:


> Funny that these two posts should end up back to back.  Colin gives the answer to G.K.'s question.  The Canadian Way.
> 
> Colin - how long to get things done the C.D. Howe way?


Anything is possible with enough money, influence, vision, and will.

The problem is that the GoC has a massive deficit of all of them...


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Kirkhill said:


> Funny that these two posts should end up back to back.  Colin gives the answer to G.K.'s question.  The Canadian Way.
> 
> Colin - how long to get things done the C.D. Howe way?


Problem is that CD Howe/WAC Bennett could steam roll FN's back in the day, that's not going to happen. A lot of the FN's want major project, because they get a revenue stream from them that is outside of government control and job opportunities for their people. A smart proponent starts engaging with the FN's before they even submit their project to the government. 
We could have had a eastern pipeline and terminal under construction now, but it was not really the FN's who blocked it. Imagine if we could guarantee Europe X amount of gas in 3 years. We could have and we should have. 2014 should have been a wakeup call for Canada.


----------



## Prairie canuck

Colin Parkinson said:


> Problem is that CD Howe/WAC Bennett could steam roll FN's back in the day, that's not going to happen. A lot of the FN's want major project, because they get a revenue stream from them that is outside of government control and job opportunities for their people. A smart proponent starts engaging with the FN's before they even submit their project to the government.
> We could have had a eastern pipeline and terminal under construction now, but it was not really the FN's who blocked it. Imagine if we could guarantee Europe X amount of gas in 3 years. We could have and we should have. 2014 should have been a wakeup call for Canada.


All of Europe and the US missed that wakeup call or more correctly hit the Snooze button.


----------



## The Bread Guy

At least some of the RUS commentariat seems to be paying attention (via RUS independent media) ...








						Effectiveness of Ukraine's HIMARS Fuels Concern in Russia - The Moscow Times
					

Pro-Kremlin figures have expressed rare public concern after Western-supplied weapons allowed Ukraine to carry out a series of successful attacks on Russian targets far behind the frontlines.




					www.themoscowtimes.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Prairie canuck said:


> All of Europe and the US missed that wakeup call or more correctly hit the Snooze button.


Not Poland, they started signing contracts for LNG with other suppliers way back in 2014.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Don't know how helpful _this_ really is ....








						U.S. backs Canada's decision to return Russia-Germany pipeline turbines
					

The United States is supporting Canada's decision to allow a Canadian company to return turbines from a Russian pipeline that supplies natural gas to Germany, saying in the short term it was the right move, as European countries continue working towards reducing their 'collective dependence' on...




					www.ctvnews.ca
				



... with this from the USA State Dep't info-machine








						The United States Supports Canada’s Decision to Return Turbine to Germany - United States Department of State
					

The United States is united with our Allies and partners in our commitment to promoting European energy security, reducing our collective dependence on Russian energy, and maintaining pressure on the Kremlin. In that vein, we support the Canadian government’s decision to return a natural-gas...




					www.state.gov


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1546622010662453248
I hope this is fake, otherwise this is just sad. Like dead guys guarding ammo....


----------



## MilEME09

Large explosion, Ukraine says they hit an ammo warehouse, Russians say fertilizer. Either way big boom, massive damage and casualties 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1546621712841719808


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1546622010662453248
> I hope this is fake, otherwise this is just sad. Like dead guys guarding ammo....



Not the only incidence of youngsters handling ammunition



> #Snizhne resident: "Now more insider info of mine (from Shakhtarsk). There were not just orcs, but children/teenagers fr/ fucking 'Young Republic'' who 'volunteered' there loading ammo, because [Russians] either don't have anyone else or those came in handy..."




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1546221096202129410


----------



## Kirkhill

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1546638442691530759
Apparently it gets even better - the person making the claim is the incoming president of something called the Munich Security Conference.  I am guessing it is the security counterpart to the WEF.  



> The Munich Security Conference is an annual conference on international security policy that has been held in Munich, Bavaria, Germany since 1963. Former names are Wehrkundetagung and Münchner Konferenz für Sicherheitspolitik. It is the world's largest gathering of its kind.





Apparently there has been a Great Turnaround.  That might confound the concurrent Great Reset.



> The Russian invasion of Ukraine has thoroughly upset the German G7 Presidency's agenda, which was already filled with numerous pressing challenges. However, as new survey data collected for a G7 special edition of the Munich Security Index shows, Germany is not the only country in which Moscow's war is perceived as a "turning point" - a historic turning point that has brought traditional security risks back into focus . The societies of the other G7 countries also see the Russian war of aggression as a turning point.











						Zeitenwende for the G7
					

Die Sonderausgabe des Munich Security Index zeigt, dass der Krieg in der Ukraine die Risikowahrnehmung der Bevölkerungen in den G7-Staaten radikal verändert hat.




					securityconference.org
				




And as a result there is now a Trans-Atlantic To Do list of a matter of urgency.









						Building a Transatlantic To-Do List - Munich Security Conference
					

Die Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz (MSC) ist das weltweit führende Forum für Debatten zu den drängendsten internationalen Sicherheitsrisiken.




					securityconference.org
				




Items of interest to Canada



1    Adaptation of NATO posture
2    EU-NATO and EU-US dialogue
*3    2% of GDP on defence
7    Expand 5-Eyes Standard and intensify trans-Atlantic intelligence co-operation
11  Ratify CETA 
14  Reduce dependency on autocratic states by diversifying strategic supply chains (Canadian Gas, Oil and Metallurgical Coal? - Uranium?)*
18  Investment screening to secure critical infrastructure
23  Kleptocracy, corruption and illicit flows
24  Close loopholes in financial and legal services
25  Transparency of ownership of companies and real estate
26  Ban goods made from forced labour
*33  Promote European energy diversification - build on EU-US LNG agreement (see item 14)
38  Recalibrate engagement on Arctic security, including in the Arctic Council (Canada member), to reflect new geopolitical realities*
39  Foster trade and investment with Global South (Caribbean and The Commonwealth)
51  Global Alliance for Food Security (???)
*56  Co-operate to make use of LNG more sustainable (Green LNG from Alberta, Sask, BC and Newf).
57  Agree on a common narrative on the strategic opportunities of climate adaptation and mitigation.*




57 - We have an Epiphany!
New story!
Out with preventing climate change and David Suzuki!
In with adaptation and management and Bjorn Lomborg!
Now how to sell that and keep our phoney baloney jobs?

Trudeau has new marching orders.

Arctic Council Members

Canada

Denmark (Greenland and the Faeroes)  - NATO & JEF
Iceland - NATO & JEF
Norway - NATO & JEF
Sweden - NATO & JEF
Finland - NATO & JEF

US - NORAD, NATO, NORTHCOM, ABM

Not Russia

The Arctic Council discussions are likely to change in tone and substance.


----------



## Kirkhill

From IAs and Stoppages to the Front in Three Weeks!


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vwnhom


----------



## PuckChaser

3 weeks of training before heading into battle? How the hell are they getting all those DLN courses in on WHMIS and General Safety?!!?


----------



## NavyShooter

In Libya, the rebels were getting 3 days of training, firing 3 bullets, and heading to the front line.  

We do our BMQ's (PRes) in 22 training days....so....3 weeks?  I'd say doable.


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukrainian artillery strikes a Russian infantry fighting vehicle from PzH2000 with a 155mm SMArt projectile

This is interesting.  You can actually see the projectile in flight.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1546582401643601923


----------



## daftandbarmy

PuckChaser said:


> 3 weeks of training before heading into battle? How the hell are they getting all those DLN courses in on WHMIS and General Safety?!!?



Based on what I've heard from people who were there, this is pretty much what the Rhodesian Light Infantry did with their new recruits:

Step 1: Here's a FN
Step 2: Let's go outside and shoot it
Step 3: Let's take it apart, clean it, and put it back together...

After a week or so they were all taking on the equivalent of the PWT3, and then started doing some real shooting


----------



## KevinB

daftandbarmy said:


> Based on what I've heard from people who were there, this is pretty much what the Rhodesian Light Infantry did with their new recruits:
> 
> Step 1: Here's a FN
> Step 2: Let's go outside and shoot it
> Step 3: Let's take it apart, clean it, and put it back together...
> 
> After a week or so they were all taking on the equivalent of the PWT3, and then started doing some real shooting


Within a week Iraqi SOF candidates where doing shoot house drills.  

Depending on what you are training for you can train troops for combat fairly quickly if you specialize in what tasks you want them to accomplish.   
  They won’t have a depth of knowledge - but 3 weeks of section/platoon and company attacks will make a decent infantryman if only for that task.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> Within a week Iraqi SOF candidates where doing shoot house drills.
> 
> Depending on what you are training for you can train troops for combat fairly quickly if you specialize in what tasks you want them to accomplish.
> They won’t have a depth of knowledge - but 3 weeks of section/platoon and company attacks will make a decent infantryman if only for that task.


As it has been for millenia. Teach the weapon, teach the formations/drills, keep it simple and direct. Not much change between Carthage and Kharkiv.


----------



## KevinB

rmc_wannabe said:


> As it has been for millenia. Teach the weapon, teach the formations/drills, keep it simple and direct. Not much change between Carthage and Kharkiv.


It sort of does suck that you need a whole lot of limited skill personnel though to do the same roles as a higher trained generalized force would.  

But at a certain point OJT kicks in.


----------



## The Bread Guy

NavyShooter said:


> We do our BMQ's (PRes) in 22 training days....so....3 weeks?  I'd say doable.


And I suspect the Brits aren't spending a lot of time teaching, say, left and right incline and left and right oblique march, too.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> It sort of does suck that you need a whole lot of limited skill personnel though to do the same roles as a higher trained generalized force would.
> 
> But at a certain point OJT kicks in.


Until technology and the skills required to operate it get in the way. Training becomes longer when we develop new and better ways to kill one another.


----------



## Kirkhill

There is a difference between training to a particular task and a particular threat, on the one hand, and keeping a standing force occupied by having them train for multiple scenarios.

Ukraine is talking about launching a million man force by August to retake their South.

Canada maintains a standing force of 4500 infantry, 1500 cavalry and a similar number of gunners that have nothing else to do but train for the next scenario.

The shame is we have no Ukrainian plan.


----------



## Haggis

PuckChaser said:


> 3 weeks of training before heading into battle? How the hell are they getting all those DLN courses in on WHMIS and General Safety?!!?


They likely have a lot less UKRFORGENS to read than we have CANFORGENS.


----------



## Skysix

KevinB said:


> It sort of does suck that you need a whole lot of limited skill personnel though to do the same roles as a higher trained generalized force would.
> 
> But at a certain point OJT kicks in.


But if you lose 30% of your highly trained multipurpose infantry you can't replace them from new recruits in 3 weeks.. Lose the same of lesser trained rifle, mortar and missile troops you can reconstitute in a month.

The critical skilled and experienced grunts to have enough of are the small team and platoon leaders. A forcible resistance and attack plan and army needs to be designed around that problem.

Small, highly trained and versatile tripwire troops are not a great strategy against a horde with no value to its masters although if the survivors of a wave attack can transition into SF-like teams behind the lines their impact will be greater. For as long as they live


----------



## KevinB

Skysix said:


> Small, highly trained and versatile tripwire troops are not a great strategy against a horde with no value to its masters although if the survivors of a wave attack can transition into SF-like teams behind the lines their impact will be greater. For as long as they live


All obstacles are covered by fire


----------



## dapaterson

The Bread Guy said:


> And I suspect the Brits aren't spending a lot of time teaching, say, left and right incline and left and right oblique march, too.


But they are teaching the slow March, right?


----------



## MilEME09

Ukrainian SOF raid Kherson and free POWs


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1546901559199633408


----------



## The Bread Guy

More on the RUS hockey guy in the slammer for not being in the military (via RUS state media) ....


----------



## Kirkhill

Germans training Ukrainians on the PzHb2000 with SMArt ammunition and the Ukrainian fire direction app.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vx9rwh


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukrainians being trained at Bovington


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vxed5j


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vx9aok

Looking at the precision,  and the fact the SMArt round is in service via the PzHb200, I wonder if it is being supplied to the M777s along with the Excaliburs and the PGM kits.









						Australian Army’s RAA tests SMArt 155mm artillery round
					

The new sensor-fused munition for artillery (SMArt) 155mm round has been tested by the Australian Army’s Royal Regiment of Australian Artillery (RAA).




					www.army-technology.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Daily Kos estimate of the state of play.









						Ukraine update: The counteroffensive at Kherson is very, very real
					

Yesterday’s update included a map of the Kherson area, so it may seem too early to be hitting it again. We’re hitting it again. That’s because on Monday, Ukrainian forces reportedly liberated the town of Kyselivka. In the last census, Kyselivka had a...




					www.dailykos.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Ammunition consumption estimate.  

1000 SMArt rounds in theater









						Ukraine Situation Report: 3,000 155mm NATO Artillery Rounds Being Fired A Day
					

The artillery duel in Ukraine's east shows no signs of slowing as troops gobble through thousands of 155mm rounds every single day.




					www.thedrive.com


----------



## Kirkhill

And Mad Max was a documentary


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vx5jq0


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vxi20j


----------



## Kirkhill

Quite the butcher's bill if verified.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1546564286771773441
Time to quit for a bit lest I be accused of spamming again.  Mind you I'm guessing the lass in Mariupol wouldn't mind a bit of SPAM about now.


----------



## CBH99

Kirkhill said:


> Quite the butcher's bill if verified.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1546564286771773441
> Time to quit for a bit lest I be accused of spamming again.  Mind you I'm guessing the lass in Mariupol wouldn't mind a bit of SPAM about now.


Oh I don’t know about that mate, I think it best we save that for the Russian POWs…


----------



## CBH99

NavyShooter said:


> In Libya, the rebels were getting 3 days of training, firing 3 bullets, and heading to the front line.
> 
> We do our BMQ's (PRes) in 22 training days....so....3 weeks?  I'd say doable.


Extremely doable.

I remember when I joined, I took my QL2 course - _thank goodness I did not have to go to Quebec for my recruit training!_

During those short weeks that felt long at the time… We covered everything from drill, navigation, basic map reading, policies/ethics, C7 & C9, WHMIS & TDG, etc etc - and that was just as a lot of the PC stuff was starting to come in.  (SHARP training, etc)

I have genuinely wondered for quite some time why it takes so long for us to get people trained up their positions… obviously the Ukrainians are quite motivated, but it does go to show you just how much filler we have in our courses.  


My 0.02


----------



## The Bread Guy

Opinion of think tanker, via the bought-and-paid-for Globe & Mail:  Canada ain't standing with Ukraine








						Opinion: Ottawa says it stands with Ukraine. Its decision to return turbines to Russia suggests otherwise
					

The Trudeau government is circumventing its own sanctions on Russia by sending back the stranded turbines Moscow needs – equipment that will become part of its war machine




					www.theglobeandmail.com
				



Archived link here if previous link doesn't work


----------



## The Bread Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> Also, if you think that Poles are backing the Ukrainians to the hilt, I can assure you that they'd be willing to go even farther for the Lithuanians - remember, *they were once called the "Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth'*.


Funny you should mention that - Belarus state media's carrying commentary pointing to that exact situation this week (archived link) ....


> The future of Ukraine will look like the Partition of the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth (Rzeczpospolita), Russian political expert Semyon Uralov told the On Point online project on BelTA's YouTube channel.
> 
> “I think this crisis will drag on for decades, it will have an entry point and an exit point. The acute phase began in 2014 and lasted for eight years. It will be followed by another phase that will also last around eight years. Most likely it will look like the Partition of the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth. In other words, Ukraine will lose territories one by one. I worked in more than 20 regions of Ukraine, one way or another. Ukraine is very diverse. I would divide it into at least eight different sub-regions. They are all very different and each of them will have their own destiny. There is one large sub-region, let's call it South-East - Left Bank, Novorosia. There are three more sub-regions there. These are Slobozhanshchina in the center with Kharkov and Donbass. There is the Black Sea region. One way or another, this area will either join Russia or fall into the zone of influence of Russia. This is what we see in Zaporozhye and Kherson Oblast,” he said.
> 
> Another region is the Dnieper region. “Its territory encompasses the Krivoy Rog iron ore basin, with most of Ukraine's natural resources. The people of Kolomoisky have entrenched themselves there and it is located partly on the right bank, partly on the left. I think it will turn into a big gray zone, because geography will determine everything there. The first geographical barrier is, of course, the Dnieper River. The future of the Dnieper River is being decided now. And the next geographical border is the Carpathians,” the political scientist noted.
> 
> According to him, Western Ukraine consists of 4 sub-regions: Volyn, Galicia, Transcarpathia and Bukovina. “They are very different from each other,” he stressed. “Volyn, I think, will somehow lean towards Belarus. I don't want to make predictions, it's wrong, but in terms of the mentality and the way of life people of Polesie and Volyn tend to be closer to Belarus. Hungary will somehow play a role in Transcarpathia. I am sure about it. There are a lot of ethnic Hungarians there and they have their own history of relations. Bukovina is strongly influenced by Romania and Moldova. Galicia is different. It is the ideological center of Bandera ideology. Though it has recently changed a lot. Nothing has russified the Galicia region as much as the current crisis. A great number of people from the Russian-speaking Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk have fled there. Therefore I expect inter-ethnic tensions there. There will be a very serious social conflict between those who came from the Russian-speaking east and local residents. Fingers crossed, things would not escalate to pogroms."
> 
> The expert also singled out the agrarian central part of Ukraine. "They are poor in mineral resources. These are Vinnitsa, Khmelnitsky, Kiev, Cherkassy, or in other words, the Dnieper River region up to the north of Odessa Oblast. For example, Odessa Oblast also represents three dissimilar areas. The north of it (Balta, Podolie) is like central Ukraine. The south of Odessa Oblast (Bessarabia, Izmail, Belgorod-Dnestrovsky) is more similar to Moldova. It is inhabited by Bulgarians and the Gagauz. And then there's Odessa proper. It's like St Petersburg, a city-state. Who is now head of the Odessa military administration? War criminal Maksim Marchenko, the former commander of the Aidar battalion, a native of Donbass. Will he surrender? I doubt it," he said.
> 
> "Such situations, when garrisons are commanded by notorious war criminals, who have already been convicted in our country, will dictate the future of Ukraine. Each city will self-determine, in one way or another. Because local elites only care about their own interests. They have already armed themselves under the guise of territorial defense. In many places mayors took control of the territorial defense, joined forces with the local organized criminal groups to protect their property. On the other hand, there are cases when war criminals like Maksim Marchenko are heading garrisons. As our allied army approaches these cities, each of them will self-determine. Who of them will prevail? It may be local elites, as it happened, for example, in Kherson where everything went very smoothly, without any pain at all. Many elites will make a choice based on their economic interests. Meanwhile, war criminals heading garrisons understand that they will be held accountable," Semyon Uralov added.


More of the #UkraineIsNotReallyACountry narrative ....

Also popping up in Lithuanian/Belarusian circles, too








						And did you know that Belarus is Lithuania? Mickiewicz's Lithuania...
					

The Lithuanian language - but Lithuanian from the period of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania - was Old Belorussian, also known as Ruthenian (not to be confused with Russian). Therefore, our nobility and the Lithuanian nobility did not need translators either at booze or during sejmiks and elections.



					baltic-review.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Some weeks ago there was a video of a Russian convoy being ambushed.  It showed a packet of about half a dozen trucks with roughly equal spacings all being hit simultaneously.  I say roughly equal but as usual one driver lagged and the gap was larger there.  

I think these beasties might have been the killers.  Electro-optical tripwires but command over-ride.  Let 4 or 5 trucks go by and then let the trip mechanism do its thing.


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> And Mad Max was a documentary
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vx5jq0
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vxi20j


Am just imagining all the offroad clubs getting government supplied armor etc and being told just make us something that can go anywhere we need it too quickly and carry at least a fire team.... would be just as Mad Maxian I am sure


----------



## Skysix

CBH99 said:


> Oh I don’t know about that mate, I think it best we save that for the Russian POWs…


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> Germans training Ukrainians on the PzHb2000 with SMArt ammunition and the Ukrainian fire direction app.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vx9rwh


Add this as the SPG and you can have a significant impact on the tactical situation. At 2 rounds then scoot even counter battery fire is not going to be reliable against it.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1546805702089445376


----------



## kev994

Skysix said:


> Add this as the SPG and you can have a significant impact on the tactical situation. At 2 rounds then scoot even counter battery fire is not going to be reliable against it.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1546805702089445376


🤯 third round could be fired before the first one hit


----------



## Brad Sallows

I suppose if soldiers are being prepared for a particular war, and one kind of war, and only war, in one theatre, it takes less time than preparing a soldier who might be expected to serve 20 years across the spectrum of operations and around the world.


----------



## Dana381

kev994 said:


> 🤯 third round could be fired before the first one hit


Actually it was moving 4 seconds before the first round hit.


----------



## Kilted

Are there any Canadians left over from the training mission in Ukraine that are currently training Ukrainians elsewhere in Europe? 

Considering our number of recent training missions I'm surprised that we aren't preparing to send a number of trainers over, or perhaps training some Ukrainians in Canada maybe?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Kilted said:


> Are there any Canadians left over from the training mission in Ukraine that are currently training Ukrainians elsewhere in Europe?
> 
> Considering our number of recent training missions I'm surprised that we aren't preparing to send a number of trainers over, or perhaps training some Ukrainians in Canada maybe?


Apart from the receiving lines for refugees in Poland, I don't think so. 

As much as I wish that it weren't the case, I honestly suspect GAC and the PMO were happier than hell to remove that commitment under the guise of "force protection" measures. One less thing to commit to. 

A shame really. Unifier did great work. It was a great mission for our folks and I am positive it saved UA lives in the opening salvos.


----------



## Furniture

rmc_wannabe said:


> Apart from the receiving lines for refugees in Poland, I don't think so.
> 
> As much as I wish that it weren't the case, I honestly suspect GAC and the PMO were happier than hell to remove that commitment under the guise of "force protection" measures. One less thing to commit to.
> 
> A shame really. Unifier did great work. It was a great mission for our folks and I am positive it saved UA lives in the opening salvos.


I'm just a simple weatherman, but I suspect it would make more sense to bring Ukrainians to Canada, and have them train in maneuver warfare on the prairies in places like Suffield, Wainwright, or Shilo, than it makes to send Canadians to a "safe" European country like Belgium, to try to teach the Ukrainians to fight on the steppes. 

Maybe it's a lack of vehicles, or lack of will power, but I think it would make lots of sense. We have open ground, and big training areas.


----------



## Ludoc

A plan to to have us help train the Ukrainians is being worked on. I have seen a warning order to that from the L1 level. Not just from us but from other countries too. The UK was just able to spool up the fastest. There are probably a lot of high level government to government agreements that have to be put in place before it becomes "official." Rest assured the CAF has been told to be ready so we can push "play" on the plan as soon as (or if, it could still fall through) the government formerly announces it.


----------



## Skysix

.


----------



## Skysix

kev994 said:


> 🤯 third round could be fired before the first one hit


Yes but competantly operated counter battery radar will pick it up just before apogee and will have a firing solution just after. Allowing time to aim the gun the first retaliatory round should be outgoing just before the first impact, so would be hitting the area of the SPG between the 3rd shot out and being mobile and out of shrapnel range. Would still be a likely casualty if SU2.0 had SMART rounds - regular arty they should have just started moving out. At worst would be a mobility kill (shrapnel to tires). Tracks would likely be fine.

Any Gunners out there feel free to school me🤓


----------



## The Bread Guy

Well, now we know exactly what "time limited" means - this from the bought-and-paid-for_ Globe & Mail_ (highlights mine) ...


> The Canadian government’s deal to allow the repair of Russian-owned turbines covers a period of up to two years from now and would allow the import and re-export of up to six units – a far more extensive arrangement than had previously been disclosed.
> 
> *Two government officials told The Globe and Mail on Tuesday that Global Affairs Canada granted the German industrial giant Siemens Energy an exemption under Canada’s Russia sanctions for two years. This allows the company to send turbines from Nord Stream 1, a pipeline majority-owned by Russian state controlled Gazprom, to Siemens Canada’s facilities in Montreal for regular repair and maintenance.*
> 
> One of the officials stressed that the arrangement with Siemens allows the Canadian government to revoke the sanctions-relief permits at any time ...


Archived link here.


----------



## Kirkhill

So why did the Russians and Ukrainians set so much store on the ownership of Snake Island?

Apparently we were focusing on the wrong river.   Not Odessa and the Dniepr but the Danube and Galati.

This is like unblocking the Mississippi for the US or the St Lawrence for Canada.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1547128449546031106


----------



## Kirkhill

The apparent effect of the GMRLS

Don't know what to make of the reduction in background noise though



__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vy3nz5


----------



## Kirkhill

Seems like Brussels pulled the rug out from under Lithuania.









						Sanctioned goods to Kaliningrad can transit Lithuania by rail, says Brussels
					

The European Commission has issued new guidelines, saying sanctions do not apply to rail transit via Lithuania to Russia...




					www.lrt.lt
				












						Lithuania widens curbs on Kaliningrad trade despite Russian warning
					

Lithuania on Monday expanded restrictions on trade through its territory to Russia's Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad, as more European Union sanctions against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine took effect.




					www.reuters.com
				




Whose side are you on?


----------



## Kirkhill

HIMARS target.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1547094163803590656

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vxxy1r


----------



## Kirkhill

And on the subject of HIMARS and Long Range Precision Fires - a piece of the puzzle.  Not the whole picture



> It appears that more than a dozen major Russian supply depots, primarily used to store artillery ammunition, have been attacked by the long range #HIMARS rockets in the past few days.





> The Ukrainians, shifting away from the attritional fight they have been drawn into in the Donbas, are re-adopting the asymmetric conventional tactics they used so successfully early in the war.





> Despite this, we must not cast the #HIMARS as the wonder weapon that will change the tide of the war. There has been a tendency since the first Industrial Revolution to look for the single technological wonder that will win wars. This is a mirage.




__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vxx6k4


----------



## FJAG

Skysix said:


> Yes but competantly operated counter battery radar will pick it up just before apogee and will have a firing solution just after. Allowing time to aim the gun the first retaliatory round should be outgoing just before the first impact, so would be hitting the area of the SPG between the 3rd shot out and being mobile and out of shrapnel range. Would still be a likely casualty if SU2.0 had SMART rounds - regular arty they should have just started moving out. At worst would be a mobility kill (shrapnel to tires). Tracks would likely be fine.
> 
> Any Gunners out there feel free to school me🤓


 I presume your scenario is for Russian counterfire where no lag time is involved for a collateral damage assessment and a "second eyes" on confirmation of pattern of life in the target area.

Sadly our ROEs in the past have been very restrictive on providing counterfire based solely on radar or sound ranging analysis. Technically your timings are a bit tight even if ROE delays were not the issue (which I wish I could categorically say wouldn't be the case in a full-on conflict like Ukraine but, I honestly can't)

The issue isn't so much the competence of the CMR - I'll assume it's competently operated - the delays come with the sensor-gun chain including confirming/authorizing engagement and readiness of the responding fire unit. It's technically capable of being quick but in practice is slower than that.

🍻


----------



## Kirkhill

This conversation reported by a disenchanted Russian blogger may be illuminating 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1547184703492554752


----------



## CBH99

I’m curious to hear from somebody who knows more than I about The legal framework around sanctions and enforcing them…

If this turbine is from Germany, was being repaired in Canada with the intention it be sent back to Germany once repairs were completed, and the turbine is now on its way back to Germany as per agreement — did Canada really violate sanctions against Russia?

I am aware that this turbine will allow Germany to continue to import oil and gas products from Russia.  

But it is not our place to be violating agreements and seizing property from NATO/G7 allied countries because _they_ might use it to violate sanctions.  


Whether Germany uses this turbine to continue importing those products from Russia is really up to the Germans, and any consequences of such would be between Germany and the international community?


----------



## Maxman1

Kirkhill said:


> Seems like Brussels pulled the rug out from under Lithuania.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sanctioned goods to Kaliningrad can transit Lithuania by rail, says Brussels
> 
> 
> The European Commission has issued new guidelines, saying sanctions do not apply to rail transit via Lithuania to Russia...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.lrt.lt
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Lithuania widens curbs on Kaliningrad trade despite Russian warning
> 
> 
> Lithuania on Monday expanded restrictions on trade through its territory to Russia's Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad, as more European Union sanctions against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine took effect.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Whose side are you on?


----------



## GR66

CBH99 said:


> I’m curious to hear from somebody who knows more than I about The legal framework around sanctions and enforcing them…
> 
> If this turbine is from Germany, was being repaired in Canada with the intention it be sent back to Germany once repairs were completed, and the turbine is now on its way back to Germany as per agreement — did Canada really violate sanctions against Russia?
> 
> I am aware that this turbine will allow Germany to continue to import oil and gas products from Russia.
> 
> But it is not our place to be violating agreements and seizing property from NATO/G7 allied countries because _they_ might use it to violate sanctions.
> 
> 
> Whether Germany uses this turbine to continue importing those products from Russia is really up to the Germans, and any consequences of such would be between Germany and the international community?


My understanding is that the turbine is owned by Gazprom who has contracted with Siemens to have the turbine repaired at their Montreal facility.  The Russian company is the owner of the turbine.  Siemens is the contractor hired by the Russian company to repair the turbine.


----------



## CBH99

Kirkhill said:


> This conversation reported by a disenchanted Russian blogger may be illuminating
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1547184703492554752


Gotta feel sorry for the 18yo to 22yo conscripts that - just a few months ago - most had plans, ideas, ambitions for a much different life.  

Now they find themselves stuck in a village for over a month, and anytime they try to leave they just get smashed more and more.  

Not only from the tactical side - but the psychological aspect of it as well (and that’s ignoring the powerful yet predictable feelings one would have in a situation like this.)


Imagine believing your country is a powerful middle power, for the most part regional super power.  

Hundreds of thousands of troops, decently modern equipment - you grow up hearing about how Russian submarines are some of the quietest in the world, the aircraft are extremely lethal - And how your president was able to thwart the all-mighty Americans’ plans for Syria…

Only to be stuck in a village just across the border from your own country, barely being resupplied, with T-64s coming out of storage because the enemy has already destroyed most of your T-90s.  


I’m not really sure where I’m going with this, other than the guy sounds like he’s in the middle of a shit sandwich.


----------



## CBH99

GR66 said:


> My understanding is that the turbine is owned by Gazprom who has contracted with Siemens to have the turbine repaired at their Montreal facility.  The Russian company is the owner of the turbine.  Siemens is the contractor hired by the Russian company to repair the turbine.


Ooooohhhhh… well that changes things.  

Sorry, I had misunderstood that aspect of the situation.  I was under the impression that the turbine was bought, owned, operated by Germany - and the concern was that it would allow them to continue to import from Russia.  

Thanks for the clarification


----------



## The Bread Guy

USSR 2.0 Gas Inc.:  We haven't seen any paperwork on this turbine thing, so who _KNOWS_ how long we'll have to keep less gas flowing west ....

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1547224254520999938Statement also attached as image in case link doesn't work for you.


----------



## Kirkhill

An interesting character - activist photographer turned sniper.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vyhhu7


----------



## FJAG

CBH99 said:


> Ooooohhhhh… well that changes things.
> 
> Sorry, I had misunderstood that aspect of the situation.  I was under the impression that the turbine was bought, owned, operated by Germany - and the concern was that it would allow them to continue to import from Russia.
> 
> Thanks for the clarification


Not sure if it does change things. Canada is a subcontractor to a German company. It's contractual obligations undoubtedly require it to return the turbine to the main contractor who, we have to expect, is operating within the German government's laws and guidelines respecting the sanctions.

Just as an aside. The US supports the return of the turbine:



> The United States Supports Canada’s Decision to Return Turbine to Germany - United States Department of State
> 
> 
> The United States is united with our Allies and partners in our commitment to promoting European energy security, reducing our collective dependence on Russian energy, and maintaining pressure on the Kremlin. In that vein, we support the Canadian government’s decision to return a natural-gas...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.state.gov



🍻


----------



## Skysix

Interesting perspective on foreign (to any given conflict) fighters and failed states


----------



## The Bread Guy

Hmmm ...

"Ukraine’s MPs can set up commission for tighter control of incoming Western weapons, – Zelensky’s top aide" (UKR media)
"Yermak proposes to create parliamentary commission to control use of weapons received from allies" (UKR media)
"Yermak Proposes Rada To Create Commission To Monitor Use Of Weapons Received By Ukraine From Partners" (UKR media)
"Ukraine Proposes Creating Commission to Control Weapons Supplied by West" (RUS state media)


----------



## brihard

CBH99 said:


> I’m curious to hear from somebody who knows more than I about The legal framework around sanctions and enforcing them…
> 
> If this turbine is from Germany, was being repaired in Canada with the intention it be sent back to Germany once repairs were completed, and the turbine is now on its way back to Germany as per agreement — did Canada really violate sanctions against Russia?
> 
> I am aware that this turbine will allow Germany to continue to import oil and gas products from Russia.
> 
> But it is not our place to be violating agreements and seizing property from NATO/G7 allied countries because _they_ might use it to violate sanctions.
> 
> 
> Whether Germany uses this turbine to continue importing those products from Russia is really up to the Germans, and any consequences of such would be between Germany and the international community?



When we talk about “sanctions”, most often we’re talking about regulations under the _Special Economic Measures Act_. SEMA is the federal law allowing for sanctions regulations, and it creates the criminal offence (up to $25,000 / 5 years in prison) of wilfully contravening or failing to comply with sanctions regulations. 

Sanctions regulations are created through Order in Council pretty much like any other federal regulation. They list the specific things you cannot do, and may annex specific individuals or businesses you cannot transact with. Transactions may be allowable for some purposes and not for others. They can be as broad as practically banning business with an entire state. They may change or be amended over time. They may be worded to prohibit foods or to services “to, _or for the benefit of any person in_ country X”. “Person” in SEMA also = businesses. So they can ban transactions that would be for the benefit of a company or people / businesses within it.

Critically, SEMA also allows for the responsible Minister to issue permits providing exceptions to sanctions where it serves some interest of concern to Canada.

SEMA is not the only legal mechanism for sanctions; there’s the United Nations Act and a few other statutes- but SEMA is the most frequently used and flexible, and is the main part of Canada’s unilateral sanctions regime- ie we will use it on our own, whereas UN Act regulations are used to domestically codify Security Council sanctions. We’ll use SEMA to potentially go above and beyond, or operate in the absence of, UN sanctions.

Enforcement of these laws is generally CBSA and/or RCMP, in conjunction with Global Affairs Canada, DOJ, and the Public Prosecution Service of Canada.

Hope this helps


----------



## Czech_pivo

CBH99 said:


> I’m curious to hear from somebody who knows more than I about The legal framework around sanctions and enforcing them…
> 
> If this turbine is from Germany, was being repaired in Canada with the intention it be sent back to Germany once repairs were completed, and the turbine is now on its way back to Germany as per agreement — did Canada really violate sanctions against Russia?
> 
> I am aware that this turbine will allow Germany to continue to import oil and gas products from Russia.
> 
> But it is not our place to be violating agreements and seizing property from NATO/G7 allied countries because _they_ might use it to violate sanctions.
> 
> 
> Whether Germany uses this turbine to continue importing those products from Russia is really up to the Germans, and any consequences of such would be between Germany and the international community?


I seem to remember some Iraqi firms back around 1990 (pre August) that had bought 'specialised steel tubing' from some British and Belgian firms, bought and paid for, under contract, but then were seized, held and never allowed to be exported.  If the merchandise had already been paid for and no sanctions were in place at the time, why were they allowed to be seized?


----------



## MilEME09

Most to the list of Russian war crimes, this time in the far west of the country.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1547564622755991552


----------



## Czech_pivo

So the recent news of Montreal and Halifax heading home from deployment in the eastern Med (in place of the Black Sea) and the Baltic's and no further news on replacement vessels means that we've effectively replaced them with a pair of .50 cal's in terms of the Kingstons being deployed.  
Sad 
state 
of 
affairs.


----------



## Blackadder1916

Czech_pivo said:


> I seem to remember some Iraqi firms back around 1990 (pre August) that had bought 'specialised steel tubing' from some British and Belgian firms, bought and paid for, under contract, but then were seized, held and never allowed to be exported.  If the merchandise had already been paid for and no sanctions were in place at the time, why were they allowed to be seized?



There were sanctions export restrictions in place before Iraq invaded Kuwait.  Granted they were not as comprehensive as those imposed following the invasion but at the time those "steel tubes" were seized the UK had export restrictions against Iraq dating from the Iran/Iraq war.  They were sometimes referred to as the "Howe guidelines" (for the then Foreign Secretary, Geoffrey Howe) who commented on them in the Commons in October 1985.


			https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/1985-10-29/debates/4ed2d274-6259-4462-865b-86070e45e655/IranAndIraq(Armaments)
		




			BBC ON THIS DAY | 11 | 1990: Customs seize 'supergun'
		



> *1990: Customs seize 'supergun'*
> 
> Customs officers in Middlesbrough say they have seized what they believe to be the barrel of a massive gun on a ship bound for Iraq.
> *Exports of parts for a weapon to Iraq would contravene British restrictions on arms sales* to President Saddam Hussein's state.
> 
> . . .


----------



## CBH99

FJAG said:


> Not sure if it does change things. Canada is a subcontractor to a German company. It's contractual obligations undoubtedly require it to return the turbine to the main contractor who, we have to expect, is operating within the German government's laws and guidelines respecting the sanctions.
> 
> Just as an aside. The US supports the return of the turbine:
> 
> 
> 
> 🍻


Those had been my initial thoughts.

If Canada has contractual obligations to repair and return equipment on and operated by a German company that IS operating legally, it is not our place to seize that equipment (even if it _could_ be used to import Russian oil/gas.)

Germany is an allied country and a member of NATO, and as such we should return equipment to them if it belongs to them. 

Germany‘s decision to import oil & gas from Russia, or to find alternative sources, is on Germany.  If they violate sanctions as a result of that decision, that is on them to handle. 

I don’t see how Canada violated the sanctions against Russia.  All we did was repair a turbine, and return it to its operator - which happens to be in Germany.  

(If the operator of that turbine was a Russian company, that is where it would change things, even if it was operating it based in Germany.)


brihard said:


> When we talk about “sanctions”, most often we’re talking about regulations under the _Special Economic Measures Act_. SEMA is the federal law allowing for sanctions regulations, and it creates the criminal offence (up to $25,000 / 5 years in prison) of wilfully contravening or failing to comply with sanctions regulations.
> 
> Sanctions regulations are created through Order in Council pretty much like any other federal regulation. They list the specific things you cannot do, and may annex specific individuals or businesses you cannot transact with. Transactions may be allowable for some purposes and not for others. They can be as broad as practically banning business with an entire state. They may change or be amended over time. They may be worded to prohibit foods or to services “to, _or for the benefit of any person in_ country X”. “Person” in SEMA also = businesses. So they can ban transactions that would be for the benefit of a company or people / businesses within it.
> 
> Critically, SEMA also allows for the responsible Minister to issue permits providing exceptions to sanctions where it serves some interest of concern to Canada.
> 
> SEMA is not the only legal mechanism for sanctions; there’s the United Nations Act and a few other statutes- but SEMA is the most frequently used and flexible, and is the main part of Canada’s unilateral sanctions regime- ie we will use it on our own, whereas UN Act regulations are used to domestically codify Security Council sanctions. We’ll use SEMA to potentially go above and beyond, or operate in the absence of, UN sanctions.
> 
> Enforcement of these laws is generally CBSA and/or RCMP, in conjunction with Global Affairs Canada, DOJ, and the Public Prosecution Service of Canada.
> 
> Hope this helps


That was broad, punctual, and informative. 

Helps indeed.  Thank You for the post!


----------



## Underway

Czech_pivo said:


> So the recent news of Montreal and Halifax heading home from deployment in the eastern Med (in place of the Black Sea) and the Baltic's and no further news on replacement vessels means that we've effectively replaced them with a pair of .50 cal's in terms of the Kingstons being deployed.
> Sad
> state
> of
> affairs.


Adjust your aim.  The MCDVs are joining the NATO Mine Countermeasures flotilla, with UUVs and a clearance diver team.  

It's a different capability than the big ships provide but still a valuable one.  You don't need to pack missiles to be useful and important. Extremely useful capability to clear all those minefields to let the grain start flowing again should that be needed in the Black Sea.  Otherwise, it will help ensure the Baltics remain free of mines for our NATO partners.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Underway said:


> Adjust your aim.  The MCDVs are joining the NATO Mine Countermeasures flotilla, with UUVs and a clearance diver team.
> 
> It's a different capability than the big ships provide but still a valuable one.  You don't need to pack missiles to be useful and important. Extremely useful capability to clear all those minefields to let the grain start flowing again should that be needed in the Black Sea.  Otherwise, it will help ensure the Baltics remain free of mines for our NATO partners.


Hopefully is not these mine countermeasures they were hoping to rely on.









						Canada’s Acquisition of Robotic Mine-Hunting System Faces Delay
					

Canada is currently experiencing partial delays in acquiring new robotic mine-hunting systems for the Canadian Navy.




					www.thedefensepost.com
				




Canada’s Acquisition of Robotic Mine-Hunting System Faces Delay​


----------



## Kirkhill

This is a 15 minute propaganda piece.  Skip forwards to the 10 minute mark when they start talking about the state of the Russians.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vyunwr


----------



## Underway

Czech_pivo said:


> Hopefully is not these mine countermeasures they were hoping to rely on.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada’s Acquisition of Robotic Mine-Hunting System Faces Delay
> 
> 
> Canada is currently experiencing partial delays in acquiring new robotic mine-hunting systems for the Canadian Navy.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedefensepost.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Canada’s Acquisition of Robotic Mine-Hunting System Faces Delay​


The fact clearance divers are deploying with the ship tells me that the entire process is in good hands.  There are multiple types of mines and ways to deal with them.  Clearance divers don't screw around.  And their kit is top-notch.


----------



## GR66

From ISW's daily report (July 13th).  Russia is forming volunteer Battalions from each of the Russian Districts for service in Ukraine.



> *The Kremlin likely ordered Russian “federal subjects” (regions) to form volunteer battalions to participate in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, instead of declaring partial or full mobilization in Russia.* Russian war correspondent and milblogger Maksim Fomin stated that Russia has begun a “volunteer mobilization,” where every region must generate at least one volunteer battalion.[1] The term “volunteer mobilization” likely implies that the Kremlin ordered the 85 “federal subjects” (regions, including occupied Sevastopol and Crimea) to recruit and financially incentivize volunteers to form new battalions, rather than referring to literal mobilization relying on conscription or the compulsory activation of all reservists in Russia. Russian outlets reported that regional officials recruit men up to 50 years old (or 60 for separate military specialties) for six-month contracts and offer salaries averaging 220,000 to 350,000 rubles per month (approximately $3,750 to $6,000).[2] Separate regions offer an immediate enlistment bonus that averages 200,000 rubles (approximately $3,400) issued from the region‘s budget and social benefits for the servicemen and their families.[3] Russian media has already confirmed the creation or deployment of volunteer battalions in Kursk, Primorskyi Krai, Republic of Bashkortostan, Chuvashia Republic, Chechnya, Republic of Tatarstan, Moscow City, Perm, Nizhny Novgorod, and Orenburg Oblasts in late June and early July.[4] Tyumen Oblast officials announced the formation of volunteer units (not specifically a battalion) on July 7.[5]
> 
> *Volunteer battalions could generate around 34,000 new servicemen by the end of August if each federal subject produces at least one military unit of 400 men. *Some Russian reports and documentation suggest that the Kremlin seeks to recruit an estimated 400 soldiers per battalion, who will receive a month of training before deploying to Ukraine.[6] The number of men may vary as some federal subjects such as Republic of Tatarstan and Chechnya are establishing two and four volunteer battalions, respectively.[7] It is possible that some federal subjects may delay or not participate in the establishment of the battalions, with officials in Volgograd reportedly remaining silent on the formation of the new units.[8] Newly formed battalions are currently departing to training grounds and will likely complete their month-long training by end of August but they will not be combat ready in such a short time period.[9]



Also noted issues being raised about Russian artillery command issues:



> *Russian milbloggers criticized the Russian military on July 12 for sourcing Iranian UAVs to improve artillery targeting in Ukraine while failing to address the command issues that more severely limit the effectiveness of Russian artillery. *Russian Telegram channel Rybar claimed on July 12 that Russian requests and approval for artillery fire pass through a convoluted chain of command, resulting in a delay of several hours to several days between Russian ground forces requesting artillery fire, Russian targeting, and conducting the actual strikes.[10] Rybar claimed that Russian forces in Syria reduced the time between targeting and striking to under an hour.[11] Rybar claimed that while the Russian need for more UAVs is clear and that Iranian UAVs helped achieve a target-to-fire time of 40 minutes in Syrian training grounds additional UAVs do not solve the problems of overcentralized Russian command and overreliance on artillery in Ukraine.[12] Russian milblogger _Voyennyi Osvedomitel’ _claimed that Russian forces had faced the same overcentralized command during the First Chechen War, wherein the inability of Russian ground forces to request artillery support without going through a chain of command inhibited responses to enemy offensive actions.[13] Milblogger _Yuzhnyi Veter_ claimed that Ukrainian artillery forces’ target-to-response time is under 40 seconds.[14]


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1547698295715155972


----------



## Kirkhill

Some more deep strike options coming?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1547914533787709440








						Reznikov waiting for Western-supplied 300km-range HIMARS
					

YEVHEN KIZILOV – FRIDAY, 15 JULY 2022, 12:56




					www.pravda.com.ua
				





__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1547911286649786368





						US Congress proposed to allocate $ 100 million for the training of Ukrainian pilots on the F-15 and F-16 - Newsicon
					

The House of Representatives passed an $840 billion defense policy bill that would provide for training Ukrainian pilots on US F-15 and F-16 fighter jets.




					en.newsicon.org
				




Meanwhile the operational experiment with PGMs continues









						The Armed Forces of Ukraine Are the First to Test the Newest Weapons: German SMart Shells Performance On the Battlefield | Defense Express
					

The latest German 155-mm shells destroy the equipment of russian invaders in Ukraine




					en.defence-ua.com


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> Some more deep strike options coming?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1547914533787709440
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Reznikov waiting for Western-supplied 300km-range HIMARS
> 
> 
> YEVHEN KIZILOV – FRIDAY, 15 JULY 2022, 12:56
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.pravda.com.ua
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1547911286649786368
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> US Congress proposed to allocate $ 100 million for the training of Ukrainian pilots on the F-15 and F-16 - Newsicon
> 
> 
> The House of Representatives passed an $840 billion defense policy bill that would provide for training Ukrainian pilots on US F-15 and F-16 fighter jets.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.newsicon.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Meanwhile the operational experiment with PGMs continues
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Armed Forces of Ukraine Are the First to Test the Newest Weapons: German SMart Shells Performance On the Battlefield | Defense Express
> 
> 
> The latest German 155-mm shells destroy the equipment of russian invaders in Ukraine
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.defence-ua.com


Those French heat seeking 155 shells are probably the scariest, from what I read you only gotta get within 50m to hit the target


----------



## Kirkhill

The impact - no pun intended - of HIMARS

The replenishment run for a brigade is now more than two days by diminishing number of trucks.



> "Right now the enemy is looking at placing brigade-level ammunition dumps no closer than 100 kilometres (62 miles) from the front line, and depots at corps-level at distances of over 150 km."











						Ukrainian military strikes with Western arms disrupt Russian supply lines - general
					

Ukraine is using Western-supplied long-range weapons and 155mm "smart" shells to hit Russian ammo dumps and supply lines, forcing Moscow to rethink how it supplies fuel and ammunition to the front line, a Ukrainian general said on Thursday.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## MilEME09

Russian convoys going out of there way to avoid the firing range of HIMARS, This will hurt their logistics more.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1548054522802556929

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1548055086269485058


----------



## brihard

That’s some sweet paranoia. I don’t think Ukr is trying to shoot at moving convoys with it, but rather hitting concentrations of ammo, fuel, or C3. But hey, anything that stretches their lines and chews up logistical bandwidth is a good thing.


----------



## Kirkhill

> When someone tells you about "denazification", show them this map. Yellow is a deposit of natural gas in Ukraine — the second largest in Europe. Red is what was occupied by the Russians in 2014.


Translation for the headline below.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vzvzam


----------



## Kirkhill

brihard said:


> That’s some sweet paranoia. I don’t think Ukr is trying to shoot at moving convoys with it, but rather hitting concentrations of ammo, fuel, or C3. But hey, anything that stretches their lines and chews up logistical bandwidth is a good thing.



An ounce of prevention?



> *M32 SMArt* German GMLRS variant produced by Diehl Defence carrying 4 SMArt anti-tank submunitions and a new flight software. Demonstrated but never ordered. M32 was not an official designation


----------



## brihard

Kirkhill said:


> An ounce of prevention?


Super expensive way to plink lone trucks. Track them via radar instead, see where they congregate, identify the likely fuel and ammo dumps, and make them go away spectacularly. If your enemy’s gonna be so kind as to stack their explosives on top of each other, use that.


----------



## Kirkhill

It worked against Buzzbombs - apparently it works against their grandkids.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vzxvqo


----------



## Kirkhill

More Mad Max ....


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vzyc6q









						Arnold Defense introduces FLETCHER
					

Arnold Defense, the St Louis based international manufacturer and supplier of 2.75-inch rocket launchers, is unveiling a concept named the “FLETCHER” 2.75-inch/70mm Weapon System at AUSA. FLETCHER can be mounted on land-based military vehicles as well as, potentially, marine and littoral platforms.




					www.arnolddefense.com


----------



## NavyShooter

An interesting thread I was pointed at:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1547767629602910210


----------



## FJAG

Kirkhill said:


> More Mad Max ....
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vzyc6q
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Arnold Defense introduces FLETCHER
> 
> 
> Arnold Defense, the St Louis based international manufacturer and supplier of 2.75-inch rocket launchers, is unveiling a concept named the “FLETCHER” 2.75-inch/70mm Weapon System at AUSA. FLETCHER can be mounted on land-based military vehicles as well as, potentially, marine and littoral platforms.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.arnolddefense.com


Don't we still have a ton of 2.75" (70 mm) rockets?

🍻


----------



## MilEME09

FJAG said:


> Don't we still have a ton of 2.75" (70 mm) rockets?
> 
> 🍻


Ordered destroyed, likely all gone now


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> Ordered destroyed, likely all gone now


Maaybe not!  Might still be time to stop the train.



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/sask-dundurn-crv-7-rocket-1.6104294
		







This time last year there were 83,303 rockets to be disposed of.   The government was looking for a company to disarm and dispose of them over the next 6 years.

The majority of them are likely still sitting in Dundurn.


----------



## FJAG

Kirkhill said:


> This time last year there were 83,303 rockets to be disposed of. The government was looking for a company to disarm and dispose of them over the next 6 years.
> 
> The majority of them are likely still sitting in Dundurn.


Have I got a deal for Canada!

😁


----------



## GR66

Kirkhill said:


> Maaybe not!  Might still be time to stop the train.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/sask-dundurn-crv-7-rocket-1.6104294
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This time last year there were 83,303 rockets to be disposed of.   The government was looking for a company to disarm and dispose of them over the next 6 years.
> 
> The majority of them are likely still sitting in Dundurn.


Ship them to Ukraine.  Let them "dispose" of them for us.  They'll figure out the best way to do it!


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> Translation for the headline below.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vzvzam


Analysis of the underlying reasons Putin is so willing to risk Russia in order to save and rebuild it. Unstated is his belief the west and NATO does not have the political will to really resist and can be outmaneuvered and bluffed.


----------



## The Bread Guy

USSR 2.0 DefMin drops by UKR, tells the troops, "rockets on Donbass cities are bad, mkaaaaaay?" (from RUS state media)

So I guess ANY rocket attacks from now on in that area will be called "nazi rocket attacks" then?


----------



## Kirkhill

brihard said:


> That’s some sweet paranoia. I don’t think Ukr is trying to shoot at moving convoys with it, but rather hitting concentrations of ammo, fuel, or C3. But hey, anything that stretches their lines and chews up logistical bandwidth is a good thing.



More on the paranoia front


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/w0g1e2

So if you are a battery commander do you now have to place your order with Belgorod, wait for the next available train, hope that the bridges aren't down, meet the train with your available trucks and then haul them over 150 km of contested ground to feed your guns?


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> Germans training Ukrainians on the PzHb2000 with SMArt ammunition and the Ukrainian fire direction app.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vx9rwh



A bit more about the PzH2000 from later comments 

C00L_HAND
+2·4 days ago

He also verified that the crews in Ukraine have already been under fire but did not receive significant damage due to the protectionlevel of the PZH 2000.

Keine_Nacken
+2·4 days ago

In a longer interview he said that the M777 receive counter fire after approx. two to three shots. The Russians have artillery radar, too and this leads to quite some damaged M777.
The PzH can fire more quickly than the M777, so counter fire should be reduced. Also it can cope better with counter fire fragments.
...which should not say the M777 is useless. It was available weeks before the PzH and in far greater numbers. It can also cross smaller bridges.
It is just that every system has its strenghts and I am so happy that Germany finally got some cool systems into the game.

BubiBalboa
·4 days ago

I recently saw a video on Twitter were you can see the Haubitzen are equipped with add-on roof-armor as well. Good to see they really got the full package.
The roof-armor looks very interesting by the way. They are made from different layers of composite and ceramic tiles covered with rubber mats which have rubber spikes on top. It kinda looks like a fakir's nail board and is nicknamed hedgehog armor.


Genocode
·4 days ago

Netherlands
Depending on which ones precisely, while they'll both have the scoot and shoot option, the Dutch PzH2000NL's are actually better protected against mortars and other artillery systems than the German ones due to special armor packages they put on.


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> USSR 2.0 DefMin drops by UKR, tells the troops, "rockets on Donbass cities are bad, mkaaaaaay?" (from RUS state media)
> View attachment 72043
> So I guess ANY rocket attacks from now on in that area will be called "nazi rocket attacks" then?



Oder er heisst Meier!

_Meier_ – pejorative and humorous nickname for Hermann Göring who on 9 August 1939 exclaimed that he could be called _Meier_ should any enemy planes appear over Germany. His self-assurance of air-superiority became laughable once the Allied powers established air dominance and began methodically bombing Germany during World War II.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Eight years ago today ...


> On this day, we commemorate the eighth anniversary of the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, resulting in the tragic deaths of 298 passengers and crew members. Our thoughts remain with those who perished on board, their families and loved ones.
> 
> Ukraine remains steadfast in its commitment to pursue truth, justice and accountability for the downing of Flight MH17. We have full confidence in the independent, open and impartial criminal proceedings against the alleged perpetrators in the Dutch National Prosecution and the state responsibility proceedings in the International Civil Aviation Organization. We urge all states and parties involved to cooperate fully with the proceedings in accordance with UNSC Resolution 2166 (2014). A thorough and exhaustive judicial process must be pursued to hold the perpetrators to account and pursue justice for the victims and next of kin of MH17.
> 
> We reiterate our deepest sympathies and condolences to the families and loved ones of the victims of the downing of Flight MH17. Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine is no doubt a difficult and painful reminder to families and loved ones of the tragic circumstances surrounding the downing of Flight MH17. While nothing can bring back those who lost their lives, or diminish the grief and anguish suffered by their families and loved ones, it is imperative that we pursue accountability and ensure that such a tragic incident is never repeated.


----------



## TacticalTea

Same day that another one related to the war crashes in Greece?


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1548542893865959424


----------



## GR66

TacticalTea said:


> Same day that another one related to the war crashes in Greece?


Would that be this one that the BBC is reporting?  Greece plane crash: Cargo aircraft was carrying weapons to Bangladesh - minister

Not sure how that one is related to the Ukraine war however.


----------



## TacticalTea

GR66 said:


> Would that be this one that the BBC is reporting?  Greece plane crash: Cargo aircraft was carrying weapons to Bangladesh - minister
> 
> Not sure how that one is related to the Ukraine war however.


Oh, just tangentially, Ukraine aircraft crashing close to the theater. Details were sparce when I first heard of it.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1548487742828400649


----------



## The Bread Guy

Not goooooooood ....








						Ukrainian Prosecutor-General Says It's Too Early To Comment On Her Suspension
					

Ukrainian Prosecutor-General Iryna Venediktova says she will not comment on the substance of her suspension now but will give a comprehensive statement later after the current situation regarding her status is settled.




					www.rferl.org
				











						Zelensky removes head of SBU Bakanov, top prosecuror Veneditkova
					

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has “removed  from duties” Head of the Security Service Ivan Bakanov and “removed from the post” Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				











						Ukraine's president fires spy chief and top state prosecutor
					

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Sunday abruptly fired the head of Ukraine's powerful domestic security agency, the SBU, and the state prosecutor general, citing dozens of cases of collaboration with Russia by officials in their agencies.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> Not goooooooood ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian Prosecutor-General Says It's Too Early To Comment On Her Suspension
> 
> 
> Ukrainian Prosecutor-General Iryna Venediktova says she will not comment on the substance of her suspension now but will give a comprehensive statement later after the current situation regarding her status is settled.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rferl.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zelensky removes head of SBU Bakanov, top prosecuror Veneditkova
> 
> 
> President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has “removed  from duties” Head of the Security Service Ivan Bakanov and “removed from the post” Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine's president fires spy chief and top state prosecutor
> 
> 
> President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Sunday abruptly fired the head of Ukraine's powerful domestic security agency, the SBU, and the state prosecutor general, citing dozens of cases of collaboration with Russia by officials in their agencies.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


From what I've read it's because of the corruption in the SBU, over 60 of the SBU have been arrested for aiding Russia since the war started


----------



## MilEME09

Black sea fleet allegedly leaving Sevastopol 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1548767990811852803


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> Black sea fleet allegedly leaving Sevastopol
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1548767990811852803


My WAG is they’re taking rumours of ATACMS for the HIMARS and MLRS seriously. Sucks to have your ships shot up by rocket artillery.


----------



## TacticalTea

brihard said:


> My WAG is they’re taking rumours of ATACMS for the HIMARS and MLRS seriously. Sucks to have your ships shot up by rocket artillery.


Ditto. I probably wouldn't risk it either were I in their shoes.


----------



## brihard

TacticalTea said:


> Ditto. I probably wouldn't risk it either were I in their shoes.


Yeah. I wonder if they’re basing it just on fear or on confirmatory intelligence. I suspect they have good enough ears within Ukraine’s defence apparatus that they probably know at least generally about any significant new kit.


----------



## TacticalTea

brihard said:


> Yeah. I wonder if they’re basing it just on fear or on confirmatory intelligence. I suspect they have good enough ears within Ukraine’s defence apparatus that they probably know at least generally about any significant new kit.


UA MoD seemed pretty optimistic this week on the ATACMS so there might have been some actual progress there. At any rate, it does annoy me that we're having so much public talk about what goes into Ukraine, potentially influencing RU action/reaction.

Just give em all the gear, disclose the monetary value, then zip it...


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> From what I've read it's because of the corruption in the SBU, over 60 of the SBU have been arrested for aiding Russia since the war started


SBU guy already had some (out in public) trouble a few weeks back ....








						Zelenskyy wants to replace Ukraine’s top spy after security failures
					

Ivan Bakanov was tapped to revamp the controversial Security Service of Ukraine. But after a string of failures and the loss of Kherson, he’s fallen out of favor with the Ukrainian president.




					www.politico.com
				











						Report: Ukrainian Security Service Chief Runs Company In Spain, Illegally
					

The head of the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU), Ivan Bakanov, holds a top position in a private company registered in Spain, in violation of the anti-corruption law, according to Skhemy (Schemes), a joint project by RFE/RL and UA:Pershy television.




					www.rferl.org
				



Naughty security boss ....


----------



## MilEME09

TacticalTea said:


> UA MoD seemed pretty optimistic this week on the ATACMS so there might have been some actual progress there. At any rate, it does annoy me that we're having so much public talk about what goes into Ukraine, potentially influencing RU action/reaction.
> 
> Just give em all the gear, disclose the monetary value, then zip it...


Could be a case of deliberate leak to get the enemy to do a specific response. Black sea fleet being further away means more time to detect and intercept their cruise missiles


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> Could be a case of deliberate leak to get the enemy to do a specific response. Black sea fleet being further away means more time to detect and intercept their cruise missiles


Indeed! Not getting to sink the Russian fleet is unfortunate for the Ukrainians, but if they can keep it even further away, it could really help them anyway in both economic and military terms.


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> SBU guy already had some (out in public) trouble a few weeks back ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zelenskyy wants to replace Ukraine’s top spy after security failures
> 
> 
> Ivan Bakanov was tapped to revamp the controversial Security Service of Ukraine. But after a string of failures and the loss of Kherson, he’s fallen out of favor with the Ukrainian president.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.politico.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Report: Ukrainian Security Service Chief Runs Company In Spain, Illegally
> 
> 
> The head of the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU), Ivan Bakanov, holds a top position in a private company registered in Spain, in violation of the anti-corruption law, according to Skhemy (Schemes), a joint project by RFE/RL and UA:Pershy television.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rferl.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Naughty security boss ....




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1548776476270641152


----------



## KevinB

brihard said:


> My WAG is they’re taking rumours of ATACMS for the HIMARS and MLRS seriously. Sucks to have your ships shot up by rocket artillery.


Not far enough  

547miles from a potential launch point to the move site.


----------



## Skysix

MilEME09 said:


> From what I've read it's because of the corruption in the SBU, over 60 of the SBU have been arrested for aiding Russia since the war started


There are definite tinges of a civil war in this conflict.

"651 cases of alleged treason and collaboration opened against prosecutorial and law enforcement officials, and more than 60 officials from Bakanov and Venediktova's agencies now working against Ukraine in Russian-occupied territories.

The sheer number of treason cases lays bare the huge challenge of Russian infiltration faced by Ukraine as it battles Moscow in what it says is a fight for survival."


----------



## quadrapiper

Skysix said:


> There are definite tinges of a civil war in this conflict.
> 
> "651 cases of alleged treason and collaboration opened against prosecutorial and law enforcement officials, and more than 60 officials from Bakanov and Venediktova's agencies now working against Ukraine in Russian-occupied territories.
> 
> The sheer number of treason cases lays bare the huge challenge of Russian infiltration faced by Ukraine as it battles Moscow in what it says is a fight for survival."


Wonder how much of that's treason due to some sort of conviction, and how much of it's corrupt individuals looking out for the main chance.


----------



## MilEME09

quadrapiper said:


> Wonder how much of that's treason due to some sort of conviction, and how much of it's corrupt individuals looking out for the main chance.


Or just simply someone trying to get some cash to feed their family in war time


----------



## daftandbarmy

Round three... ding ding!


Ukraine War: Russia end 'operational pause'​
Military Analyst and retired Air Vice-Marshal Sean Bell said the end of Russia's operational pause was "inevitable", due to the fact that more time on pause means more time for the Ukrainians to prepare their next steps.


----------



## CBH99

MilEME09 said:


> Or just simply someone trying to get some cash to feed their family in war time


Or see their city/region flooded by Russian forces with no chance of defeating them, or escaping them…so they ‘play the game’ sort of speak in the hopes that one day, they’ll be able to leave.  

Feed the Russians just enough intel to stay alive & off the naughty list, but not enough for the intel to be super useful all by itself.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1548776476270641152


Some further refining of the HR status of these guys (via UKR media)








						Suspension of Bakanov, Venediktova does not mean their dismissal – President's Office
					

There is no talk of dismissing SBU Head Ivan Bakanov and Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova yet, Deputy Head of the President's Office Andriy Smirnov said during a telethon on Monday.




					en.interfax.com.ua
				











						President’s Office: Bakanov, Venediktova not dismissed yet, checks ahead
					

The President’s decision to remove Iryna Venediktova from the position of the Prosecutor General and suspend Ivan Bakanov from his duties as the Chief of the Security Service of Ukraine does not mean their dismissal. Official checks will be carried out, after which the President will decide...




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Eaglelord17

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1548864940848840705


----------



## Skysix

CBH99 said:


> Or see their city/region flooded by Russian forces with no chance of defeating them, or escaping them…so they ‘play the game’ sort of speak in the hopes that one day, they’ll be able to leave.
> 
> Feed the Russians just enough intel to stay alive & off the naughty list, but not enough for the intel to be super useful all by itself.


Pretty sure the difference between collaborator level vs the 'help carry bodies to feed my family' level was considered when using the legal terms of treason and impending prosecution/penalties


----------



## Kirkhill

Forces of the DPR peoples militia "worn out down to single digits percents of the standard strength".

ie more than 1% but less than 9%.   A Battalion Tactical Group of 800 would have a fighting strength of something less than 72 and more than 8.  Call it a platoon of 40 (5%).


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1549005782821343234


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> Forces of the DPR peoples militia "worn out down to single digits percents of the standard strength".
> 
> ie more than 1% but less than 9%.   A Battalion Tactical Group of 800 would have a fighting strength of something less than 72 and more than 8.  Call it a platoon of 40 (5%).
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1549005782821343234


How the heck do you get down to less then 10% effective strength? I get Soviet tactics but there's a point where a unit isn't even useful for that either


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> How the heck do you get down to less then 10% effective strength? I get Soviet tactics but there's a point where a unit isn't even useful for that either



Got me beat. Assuming that the info is good, and not a figment of someone's imagination, the only thing that makes sense to me is the unit is configured like a Canadian Militia regiment:  A Lt Col, an Adj, an RSM a Cpl/Driver-Communicator and an understrength platoon.


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> Got me beat. Assuming that the info is good, and not a figment of someone's imagination, the only thing that makes sense to me is the unit is configured like a Canadian Militia regiment:  A Lt Col, an Adj, an RSM a Cpl/Driver-Communicator and an understrength platoon.


Igor Grikin is a FSB Colonel who is also wanted for the downing of MH17. While not critical of Russia, mostly, he doesn't give the sugar coated propaganda spin on things either.


----------



## MilEME09

Great logistics read for you all








						Logistics Collapse
					

I can only make an assumption, in the spirit of the same Russian propaganda and in a language they understand, that Putin is a sent…




					nadinbrzezinski.medium.com


----------



## Gunnar

I think it was somewhere near the beginning of the war where it was pointed out that the tire failures were symptoms of a lack of a professional corps of NCMs doing logistics on the Russian side.  Simple things like oil changes not getting done.  Add to that Russia’s stultified, top-down leadership style, kleptocracy and the effects of years of neglect, and sanctions.  Like the old saw goes « the defender wins by not losing ».  Ukraine simply needs to outlast Russia.


----------



## Kirkhill

Have I got a deal for you! Your son for a Lada....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1548992984946974720


----------



## The Bread Guy

This from Turkish media ...








						Canadian Crowdfund aims to buy Turkish combat drone for Ukraine
					

Canadian Bayraktar Crowdfund aims to collect $5.4M - Anadolu Agency




					www.aa.com.tr
				



Apparently based in Missisauga in what appears to be an industrial/commercial strip area, and a non-profit registered in Ontario as of April (still, caveat lector)





						UhelpUkraine
					






					uhelpukraine.org


----------



## ueo

TacticalTea said:


> UA MoD seemed pretty optimistic this week on the ATACMS so there might have been some actual progress there. At any rate, it does annoy me that we're having so much public talk about what goes into Ukraine, potentially influencing RU action/reaction.
> 
> Just give em all the gear, disclose the monetary value, then zip it...


What? Pols miss a sound bite? I think not!


----------



## Spencer100

Drone v Soldier






This should be the music played when watching this.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Spencer100 said:


> Drone v Soldier


I'm pretty sure I saw this a couple months ago.


----------



## Kirkhill

France contributing wheeled 105mm AMX-10RC to the Ukrainians?  Along with some VABs.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1549077491582738432


----------



## Kirkhill

And request from the Ukrainian Ambassador to the US to US Politicians and Bureaucrats:

Can we just not?


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/w2umpl


----------



## brihard

Kirkhill said:


> France contributing wheeled 105mm AMX-10RC to the Ukrainians?  Along with some VABs.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1549077491582738432


Is there any evidence these are going to Ukraine, versus simply being routine army kit on a train?


----------



## MilEME09

brihard said:


> Is there any evidence these are going to Ukraine, versus simply being routine army kit on a train?


France did announce awhile back they were giving these vehicles to Ukraine. Whether this is them or not, I dint know.


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> France did announce awhile back they were giving these vehicles to Ukraine. Whether this is them or not, I dint know.


Right on, thanks. I checked Oryx’s site and he notes AMX-10 as a possibility, but no word on commitments. This may well be more kit quietly on the way- or alternatively, more NATO forces posturing east.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

If you have Telegram you can see their engineers using explosives to clear bridge rubble from a roadway









						WarDonbass
					

💣Саперы ЛНР взрывами расчищают завалы на месте взорванных украинскими военнослужащими мостов при отступлении от Лисичанска




					t.me


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Also apparently Russians shot down yet another one of their own fighters


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1549454399923159041


----------



## Kirkhill

Pehaps the Su-35 pilot didn't get the memo his guys were using SAMs to suppress wheatfields.



> "The situation in the operational zone in the South Buh direction is steadily tense, but controlled by the defense forces. The enemy is conducting defensive battles on the retreat lines: while losing their logistics and reserves, they set up no strike groups, at the same time trying to keep up remote shelling as the main form of fighting," Nazarov said.
> 
> The spokesperson noted that the Russian aggressor attacked Odesa with *seven Kalibr-type missiles* from the Black Sea waters. One was shot down by the Air Defense Forces, while the rest hit a peaceful village. *Five households were destroyed and caught fire, a school and a culture hub were damaged, while six civilians were injured, including a child.*
> 
> In Mykolaiv region,* the enemy once again shelled farms and farmland* around the settlements of Vysunsk, Novyi Buh, and Lepetikha, atypically *employing an S-300 anti-aircraft missile system*. Russian troops also rained fire on the Nikopol and Kryvy Rih districts.
> 
> As reported earlier, as a result of missile attacks on one of the villages in Odesa region on July 19, six people were injured, three households and two outbuildings were destroyed or caught fire, while a number of private estates, cars, a local school, and a culture hub were damaged.












						South Buh direction: Enemy in defense, suffering losses in logistics, reserves
					

Russian troops are conducting defensive battles, resorting to remote fire to hold their ground in the South Buh direction. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1549566668313137156


----------



## KevinB

McG said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1549566668313137156


Those STANAGS sure seem to have a reason now…


----------



## FJAG

KevinB said:


> Those STANAGS sure seem to have a reason now…


The STANAGS only go so far. My guess is that the problem is that a manufacturer turns out a perfectly serviceable weapon system then various customer countries (Canada I'm looking at you) insist on them being modified for their particular use. Another simple example - the 155mm is a standard for NATO artillery but within that standard are a herd of fuzes, projectiles and propelling charges each of which has its own firing tables (tabular, graphic or computer). And then there's forming artillery organizations from handfuls of M777s, Archers, PzH2000, and several other types. Good luck with that. 

🍻


----------



## GR66

McG said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1549566668313137156


I'd suggest (again) sending more of our M777s to Ukraine.  More of the same systems eases both the logistics and training burdens.

Even better...send them more M777s and at the same time send a training cadre to Poland to train more Ukrainian gunners on their use as well as a maintenance/repair detachment to keep them working (as well as train their own maintainers).


----------



## MilEME09

US willing to offer A-10 to Ukraine 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1549860094774493184


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> US willing to offer A-10 to Ukraine
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1549860094774493184


The USAF has been trying to do they for months.  Congress at this point is only willing to offer F-15 and F-16’s as the USAF hasn’t addressed the Close Support Aircraft replacement aspect, and those members of the HASC and SASC who have either previous service or a knowledgeable staff don’t see FAST FIGHTER PLANE as close ground support. 

The USAF doesn’t want the role, but they don’t want the Army doing it either (the decade ago tussle on the A-10’s) - but congress won’t let the USAF abandon the Army.


----------



## suffolkowner

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1549641899966926853
Bad Vlad and Darth Putin are getting hard to tell apart


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1550101090544271361Oh Germany....


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1550101090544271361Oh Germany....



And Canada caved in... it takes two to tango when it comes to weaseling out on previous virtue signals


----------



## Quirky

With the amount of weak leadership that's infecting western nations, I would've invaded Ukraine too.


----------



## YZT580

KevinB said:


> The USAF has been trying to do they for months.  Congress at this point is only willing to offer F-15 and F-16’s as the USAF hasn’t addressed the Close Support Aircraft replacement aspect, and those members of the HASC and SASC who have either previous service or a knowledgeable staff don’t see FAST FIGHTER PLANE as close ground support.
> 
> The USAF doesn’t want the role, but they don’t want the Army doing it either (the decade ago tussle on the A-10’s) - but congress won’t let the USAF abandon the Army.


trying to do an endrun on the senate


----------



## KevinB

YZT580 said:


> trying to do an endrun on the senate



What they really need...


----------



## CBH99

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1550101090544271361Oh Germany....


F**k You, Germany.  Really? 

You would halt weapons shipments to Ukraine, that you’ve already announced, that are to be used in that country’s _very real defense against an enemy which invaded to seize territory, has blatantly ignored any rules of war, committed atrocities against civilians, stolen it’s agriculture & sabotaged its resources, has forcefully relocated thousands of ordinary people_ … if Canada didn’t return a bloody turbine?

So by returning the turbine, Mr. Trudeau was actually doing what he thought was in the best interest of Ukraine?

And we had no real business in keeping the bloody thing.  Germany sent it to us to be repaired, we sent it back to Germany - it’s up to them whether they continue to import oil & gas from Russia.  

(Whoever initially made a big stink about this really shouldn’t have - the political and international fallout is causing far more damage than a repaired turbine ever could.)



By all means Germany, feel free to not pull your dick out.  This situation is f**ked enough already…


----------



## TacticalTea

Is Ms.Baerbock intentionally trying to scuttle the German government?

I don't know where she stands wrt Ukraine in comparison to her colleagues, but it seems the Bundestag wants more than the Chancellery has offered so far.


----------



## Skysix

KevinB said:


> View attachment 72116
> What they really need...


You are not wrong conceptually if armoured up with spectra blankets or whatever around engine and cockpit against 14.5mm AA and with a cutting edge electric engine. No IR signature, just suddemly 'arrives' and Fs you up.

But the Army has to operate it. The airforce won't


----------



## Skysix

TacticalTea said:


> Is Ms.Baerbock intentionally trying to scuttle the German government?
> 
> I don't know where she stands wrt Ukraine in comparison to her colleagues, but it seems the Bundestag wants more than the Chancellery has offered so far.


What is her background (actions etc) with respect to Russia or Putin? Is she another useful idiot sewing discord in the
west?


----------



## Skysix

MilEME09 said:


> US willing to offer A-10 to Ukraine
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1549860094774493184



What would be priceless is if Ukraine accepted them as lend-lease and after the conflict returned the survivors directly to the US ARMY. They have fixed wing aviators and Apache pilots, I am pretty sure they could quickly ramp up the appropriate training pipeline


----------



## NavyShooter

__





						AMARC Experience - Aircraft Type Summary
					

AMARC - Aircraft Maintenance And Regeneration Center. 309th Aerospace Maintenance and Regeneration Group. Comprehensive source of information on the important job that AMARC carries out in support of the various branches of the US Military and other Government agencies. AMARG, Davis–Monthan Air...




					www.amarcexperience.com
				




Based on the list of aircraft in the boneyard, maybe they should crack out some Scooters (A-4's) and send them over?  I don't see any Skyraiders left in the inventory.  









						32°09'43.7"N 110°51'42.1"W · Davis-Monthan, Tucson, AZ
					

Davis-Monthan, Tucson, AZ




					goo.gl
				




There's 5 OV10 Mohawks as well.  

(Lots of other options too!)


----------



## KevinB

NavyShooter said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> AMARC Experience - Aircraft Type Summary
> 
> 
> AMARC - Aircraft Maintenance And Regeneration Center. 309th Aerospace Maintenance and Regeneration Group. Comprehensive source of information on the important job that AMARC carries out in support of the various branches of the US Military and other Government agencies. AMARG, Davis–Monthan Air...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.amarcexperience.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Based on the list of aircraft in the boneyard, maybe they should crack out some Scooters (A-4's) and send them over?  I don't see any Skyraiders left in the inventory.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 32°09'43.7"N 110°51'42.1"W · Davis-Monthan, Tucson, AZ
> 
> 
> Davis-Monthan, Tucson, AZ
> 
> 
> 
> 
> goo.gl
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There's 5 OV10 Mohawks as well.
> 
> (Lots of other options too!)


Skyraiders all went out via FMA to support COIN efforts to our "allies" in the 80's and 90's.

23 AH-1Z Super Cobra and 101 AH-1W Super Cobra...


----------



## GR66

KevinB said:


> Skyraiders all went out via FMA to support COIN efforts to our "allies" in the 80's and 90's.
> 
> 23 AH-1Z Super Cobra and 101 AH-1W Super Cobra...


I was more thinking 83 x B-52G and 11 x B-52H Stratofortress...


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> What is her background (actions etc) with respect to Russia or Putin? Is she another useful idiot sewing discord in the
> west?




From what I have seen she seems to be a pretty pragmatic Green who has been consistent in her support for Ukraine.  And the Russians don't  seem to like her.  The same can't be said for Scholz, Schroeder and Merkel.  So there's that.









						Annalena Baerbock: the German minister staring down Russia over Ukraine
					

New foreign minister won critics’ respect after meeting with Sergei Lavrov, but has work cut out in push for diplomacy




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## KevinB

GR66 said:


> I was more thinking 83 x B-52G and 11 x B-52H Stratofortress...


I suspect Russian AD systems and AS Fighters would pound them pretty fast though.


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> From what I have seen she seems to be a pretty pragmatic Green who has been consistent in her support for Ukraine.  And the Russians don't  seem to like her.  The same can't be said for Scholz, Schroeder and Merkel.  So there's that.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Annalena Baerbock: the German minister staring down Russia over Ukraine
> 
> 
> New foreign minister won critics’ respect after meeting with Sergei Lavrov, but has work cut out in push for diplomacy
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com


She's definitely been pro Ukraine (or maybe just Anti-RU) - and leaked a lot of stuff against the Government when they try to weasel out of commitments to UKR.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> She's definitely been pro Ukraine (or maybe just Anti-RU) - and leaked a lot of stuff against the Government when they try to weasel out of commitments to UKR.


If only our elected weasels had similar integrity.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

KevinB said:


> I suspect Russian AD systems and AS Fighters would pound them pretty fast though.


They suffered a fair bit over North Vietnam to much less modern systems


----------



## KevinB

Ukraine says air force needs western fighter jets, and the US is preparing to help
					

“Older U.S. systems are a possibility” as Ukraine builds its future air force, U.S. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said.




					www.defensenews.com


----------



## Kirkhill

The Antonovskiy Bridge connecting Kherson to Crimea appears to be now out of action.

Coupled with the effect of HIMARS, moving the Russian supply dumps away from the front, disrupting rail supply and forcing greater reliance on trucks and roads,  it appears that Kherson is now cut off from Russian resupply.

There is a map I saw just recently that showed the movement of the dumps away from the frontline and the impact it had on transit times.  Can't find it though.



__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/w4jgss


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1550137813051506690








						Russian occupiers want to close Kherson bridge after Armed Forces of Ukraine hit it for the second time – Russian media
					

IRYNA BALACHUK – WEDNESDAY, 20 JULY 2022, 12:49




					www.pravda.com.ua
				





__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1549334062363467776

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1549655188545355776

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/w3mv3u









						Russians Move Their Ammo Depots Deeper in the Rear Because of Ukraine’s New Long-Range Artillery | Defense Express
					

Russian occupation forces fear more warehouses destroyed by powerful Western weaponry




					en.defence-ua.com


----------



## CBH99

rmc_wannabe said:


> If only our elected weasels had similar integrity.


I think our entire political system needs to be turned upside down on its head - in some ways more than others.  

I would just love for our elected officials to show similar integrity - I would love for our elected officials to just _seem_ like they have a clue about what they’re doing & why they are doing it.  


But… I think I would require a good PM to start.  Someone with a vision, some real ambition, who can get things done without the need to consult every breathing creature in the area + their extended family, somebody who actually values freedom doesn’t step on it, etc

If we set some real goals for the country, and we get some momentum towards those goals by being ambitious and striving for something that most people can get behind…I would think the morale and the energy of the country would produce better election candidates, and hence better leaders.  

As long as our elected representatives are perfectly content moving about is slow as molasses up a glacier, and happily settling for mediocrity - I don’t see anything drastic changing.  


(Sorry, did not mean to hijack the thread)


----------



## CBH99

KevinB said:


> Ukraine says air force needs western fighter jets, and the US is preparing to help
> 
> 
> “Older U.S. systems are a possibility” as Ukraine builds its future air force, U.S. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.defensenews.com


Remember way back in the day, that whole NATO flying training in Canada program?

I haven’t heard about it in years.  But that could potentially be possibility?  Or just treating them here in general?

(I know the RCAF was looking to expand it’s pilot numbers.  Training so Ukrainian pilots here could help flush out the numbers needed to run certain courses?)


* I genuinely have no idea what I’m talking about here.  Just brainstorming.*


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Several news agencies are reporting that Ukraine/Russia have reached a deal for the exportation of Ukrainian grain. This report from the BBC:



> Food crisis: Ukraine grain export deal reached with Russia, says Turkey
> 
> *Turkey says a deal has been reached with Russia to allow Ukraine to resume exports of grain through the Black Sea.*
> 
> It is to be signed on Friday in Istanbul by Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. The world shortage of Ukrainian grain since Russia's 24 February invasion has left millions at risk of hunger.
> 
> The invasion sent food prices soaring, so the deal to unblock Ukraine's ports is crucial. Some 20 million tonnes of grain is stuck in silos in Odesa.
> 
> Ukraine's foreign ministry confirmed that another UN-led round of talks to unblock grain exports would take place in Turkey on Friday - and a document "may be signed".
> 
> But one Ukrainian MP close to the talks voiced caution over the deal. "We don't have [an] agreement yet," Odesa MP Oleksiy Honcharenko told BBC Radio 4's World Tonight programme. "We don't trust Russians at all. So let us wait till tomorrow for a final decision and that there will not be some pushbacks from Russians and last minute changes."
> 
> "I keep fingers crossed tomorrow we'll have a deal and Russia will really respect it."
> The US State Department welcomed the UN-brokered deal, but said it was focusing on holding Russia accountable for implementing it.
> 
> "We should never have been in this position in the first place. This was a deliberate decision on the part of the Russian Federation to weaponise food," said the department's spokesman Ned Price.
> Diplomats say the plan includes:
> 
> The deal is also meant to facilitate Russian exports of grain and fertiliser via the Black Sea.
> 
> The UN and Turkey have been working for two months to broker a grain deal, amid global anxiety about the food crisis.
> 
> Russia denies blockading Ukraine's ports - it blames Ukraine for laying mines at sea and Western sanctions for slowing Russia's own exports.
> 
> Ukraine however says the Russian navy prevents it shipping grain and other exports and accuses Russian occupation forces of stealing grain from Ukrainian farms.
> 
> If the signing goes ahead as planned it will be the first significant deal between Russia and Ukraine since the invasion began. There have been some prisoner exchanges, but a ceasefire still appears a long way off.
> 
> "The grain export agreement, critically important for global food security, will be signed in Istanbul under the auspices of President [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan and UN Secretary General Mr Guterres together with Ukrainian and Russian delegations," said Mr Erdogan's spokesman Ibrahim Kalin.
> Sergiy Kyslytsya, the Ukrainian ambassador to the UN, said the devil would be in the detail of the deal, which was still being worked on by all parties.
> 
> If the deal was signed and implemented, it would "ensure a significant number of ships can approach or leave the Ukrainian ports and we can export about 20 million tonnes of grain, which is ready to be exported," he told BBC World News.
> 
> He added that Turkey would play a "very important part ensuring the security" and monitoring the process.




Link


----------



## MilEME09

CBH99 said:


> Remember way back in the day, that whole NATO flying training in Canada program?
> 
> I haven’t heard about it in years.  But that could potentially be possibility?  Or just treating them here in general?
> 
> (I know the RCAF was looking to expand it’s pilot numbers.  Training so Ukrainian pilots here could help flush out the numbers needed to run certain courses?)
> 
> 
> * I genuinely have no idea what I’m talking about here.  Just brainstorming.*


Be a shame if a bunch of ex airforce pilots formed a volunteer squadrons and went over .....

In other news on the front

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1550216409300570116


----------



## RangerRay

Accurate or wish-casting?  🤷‍♂️ 









						Ukraine Is Winning
					

And Putin’s evident desperation will only hurt him more.




					www.thebulwark.com


----------



## KevinB

RangerRay said:


> Accurate or wish-casting?  🤷‍♂️
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine Is Winning
> 
> 
> And Putin’s evident desperation will only hurt him more.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thebulwark.com


It is a good article, it correctly identifies a lot of key issues facing both sides, and why unless something changes drastically, that the Ukraine is currently "winning".    That said, I think it glosses over some of the losses that Ukraine has incurred, and the logistics hurdles it still needs to overcome to push Russia out of its territory.


----------



## CBH99

Germany warned Canada in turbine talks of domestic repercussions of halt to Russian gas
					

The first turbine released to Russia by Canada is reportedly stuck in transit because Russia has so far not given the go-ahead to transport it back




					www.theglobeandmail.com
				





Just a note about the German ambassador’s statement that Germany has donated more than anyone else to the Ukrainian cause, minus the US.

Pretty sure that honour goes to Poland, not you Germany.  Apparently Poland is the best neighbour an Eastern European nation could possibly ask for.  

You guys were the ones that dragged your heels on not only how to help them, but also blocked various moves by other countries that wanted to help them.


----------



## suffolkowner

CBH99 said:


> Germany warned Canada in turbine talks of domestic repercussions of halt to Russian gas
> 
> 
> The first turbine released to Russia by Canada is reportedly stuck in transit because Russia has so far not given the go-ahead to transport it back
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theglobeandmail.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Just a note about the German ambassador’s statement that Germany has donated more than anyone else to the Ukrainian cause, minus the US.
> 
> Pretty sure that honour goes to Poland, not you Germany.  Apparently Poland is the best neighbour an Eastern European nation could possibly ask for.
> 
> You guys were the ones that dragged your heels on not only how to help them, but also blocked various moves by other countries that wanted to help them.


Yeah I would think the UK and Sweden would be up there









						Ukraine Support Tracker - A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine
					

The Ukraine Support Tracker lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid transferred by governments to Ukraine since January 24, 2022.




					www.ifw-kiel.de


----------



## rmc_wannabe

CBH99 said:


> Just a note about the German ambassador’s statement that Germany has donated more than anyone else to the Ukrainian cause, minus the US.
> 
> *Pretty sure that honour goes to Poland, not you Germany.  Apparently Poland is the best neighbour an Eastern European nation could possibly ask for. *
> 
> You guys were the ones that dragged your heels on not only how to help them, but also blocked various moves by other countries that wanted to help them.


Poland has been in Ukraine's shoes before, specially because of Germany and Russia. There is a long and proud lineage there of Poles resisting occupation going back centuries. There is a reason their national anthem is "Jeszcze Polska nie zginęła" or "Poland has not yet perished". 

Ukraine is cut from the same cloth. They are going to keep going with or without German aid. German has shown its support for the rest of Europe is dependant on what's in it for them. 

I am sad to see our government is taking its cues from the latter and not the former of the two.


----------



## OldSolduer

rmc_wannabe said:


> Poland has been in Ukraine's shoes before, specially because of Germany and Russia. There is a long and proud lineage there of Poles resisting occupation going back centuries. There is a reason their national anthem is "Jeszcze Polska nie zginęła" or "Poland has not yet perished".
> 
> Ukraine is cut from the same cloth. They are going to keep going with or without German aid. German has shown its support for the rest of Europe is dependant on what's in it for them.
> 
> I am sad to see our government is taking its cues from the latter and not the former of the two.



The Poles got Enigma for the Allies. They’ve resisted German and Soviet attempts to “assimilate “ them


----------



## Fishbone Jones

Sad, but not surprised.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

OldSolduer said:


> The Poles got Enigma for the Allies. They’ve resisted German and Soviet attempts to “assimilate “ them


Not to mention that for 120+ years the country was "disappeared" by the Russians, Prussians and Habsburgs and is still here; not so much for the Prussians and Habsburgs. Unfortunately the Russians ae still with us.


----------



## OceanBonfire

Russian propaganda is making inroads with right-wing Canadians
					

New research shows that at least half of Canadians have encountered pro-Kremlin propaganda online and that those who hold left-leaning views are less susceptible to the Kremlin’s disinformation.




					theconversation.com


----------



## TacticalTea

rmc_wannabe said:


> "Poland has not yet perished"











						State Anthem of Ukraine - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




Same for Ukraine, interestingly enough!

_(Ще не вмерла Україна, lit. 'Ukraine has not yet perished')_


----------



## TacticalTea

OceanBonfire said:


> Russian propaganda is making inroads with right-wing Canadians
> 
> 
> New research shows that at least half of Canadians have encountered pro-Kremlin propaganda online and that those who hold left-leaning views are less susceptible to the Kremlin’s disinformation.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> theconversation.com


Seems disturbing but do note that the sample for right-leaning is vastly inferior to that of the Mixed and Left-leaning groups.

Still, those numbers are higher than I expected. Worryingly so. 

Was it only polled in Toronto? Ontario? Canada-wide?


----------



## suffolkowner

TacticalTea said:


> Seems disturbing but do note that the sample for right-leaning is vastly inferior to that of the Mixed and Left-leaning groups.
> 
> Still, those numbers are higher than I expected. Worryingly so.
> 
> Was it only polled in Toronto? Ontario? Canada-wide?


Yes disturbing 30 years ago you would have expected those numbers to be the opposite way. Very small sample size but when and why did so called right leaning people become Russian lovers? So far I haven't encountered this but we are older "conservatives" from a different time and used to Russian lies and behaviour


----------



## KevinB

TacticalTea said:


> Seems disturbing but do note that the sample for right-leaning is vastly inferior to that of the Mixed and Left-leaning groups.
> 
> Still, those numbers are higher than I expected. Worryingly so.
> 
> Was it only polled in Toronto? Ontario? Canada-wide?


1,500 People Polled rounded to the nearest %age from 13-21 May 2022 by the Social Media Lab at Toronto Metro U. 





						Social Media Lab | Making Sense of a Networked World @ Toronto Metropolitan University
					






					socialmedialab.ca
				




From the Report (it is available for PDF download)

_Data was collected using Dynata, a market research firm. The survey was open from May 12–31, 2022 and was hosted on Qualtrics, an online survey platform. We received a total of 1,500 responses, excluding responses completed under 5 minutes. The survey was made available to online Canadian adults in English. The term “online Canadian adults” refers to Internet users aged 18 and older. To increase the representativeness of our sample, we used proportional quota sampling to recruit respondents, with quotas based on age, gender, and geographical region that matched the distributions of the 2021 Statistics Canada population estimates11. _

_We recognize gender is not binary; however, the sampling question was phrased to be in line with Statistics Canada for recruiting a representative sample of Canadian adults. Later in the survey, participants were invited to self-identify as non-binary and 5 people did; 3 people preferred to self-describe themselves and 1 preferred not to answer this question._

_The data is anonymized and presented in aggregate in this report. Prior to data collection, Research Ethics Board approval was obtained from Toronto Metropolitan University. Participants were shown a comprehensive consent form.

*Social Media Platforms Reported in the Survey *


While the survey asked Canadians about thirteen different social media platforms, only those that reached a 10% adoption in Canada were included in the report. These are: Facebook, YouTube, Instagram, Twitter, LinkedIn, Pinterest, Snapchat, TikTok, Reddit, and Twitch. Messaging apps were combined into one category called “messaging apps”. 


*Percentage Reporting *


All percentages are rounded to the nearest 1%. A margin of error is not reported since an online survey is not a random probability sample._


----------



## rmc_wannabe

suffolkowner said:


> Very small sample size but when and *why did so called right leaning people become Russian lovers? * So far I haven't encountered this but we are older "conservatives" from a different time and used to Russian lies and behaviour


Authoritarianism is the abusive boyfriend who lovebombs the downtrodden on the fringe in the beginning if the relationship. They promise to "fix" everything that is "wrong" with society and that things will be great if you just give them a chance.

It doesn't matter if it's Russia 2022/1917, China 1949, Germany 1933, Italy 1925, or Convoy Protesters/Emergency Act was justified in Canada 2022; it is a play book that is well known.


----------



## McG

OceanBonfire said:


> Russian propaganda is making inroads with right-wing Canadians
> 
> 
> New research shows that at least half of Canadians have encountered pro-Kremlin propaganda online and that those who hold left-leaning views are less susceptible to the Kremlin’s disinformation.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> theconversation.com


There have been a few studies over the past couple years that have found Russian disinformation channels to have achieved far stronger break-through into the political right. There have been other (but fewer) studies that demonstrate the linkage is not to right/left spectrum but to populists or non-populists.  The populists on the right have had a powerful voice in recent years, which has lead to broader normalization of some disinformation.

When Russia resumed invading Ukraine, its disinformation channels (the ones that previously were pumping partisan divisiveness) started increasing messaging to support the war effort. While new start-ups could go immediately hard-core pro-Russia, others with more developed followers had to slowly dial the message on a new course.  And for a lot of these “legacy” disinformation channels, the messaging is not that Russia is good & right, but simply that Ukraine is also bad.


----------



## MilEME09

Pretty sure after 2014, Mariupol, Kyiv, Bucha, they ain't getting free tickers to anywhere but a POW camp.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1550586379859640320


----------



## Retired AF Guy

And in the latest news:

Ukraine To Receive 60 Self-Propelled Guns in Poland’s Largest Arms Export Deal


----------



## brihard

Retired AF Guy said:


> And in the latest news:
> 
> Ukraine To Receive 60 Self-Propelled Guns in Poland’s Largest Arms Export Deal


That’s potent. That’s a shoot’n’scootable platform. And it shoots NATO rounds.


----------



## Mills Bomb

> Russian propaganda is making inroads with right-wing Canadians



This is just a personal observation / opinion;

Very few of the current anti-vaxxers and conspiracy types are "left-leaning" these days. The anti-vaccine types who were previously more "mixed" or "left leaning" prior to the pandemic seem to have drifted further to the right, in some cases the alt-right. After all it was JT and the left who humiliated them in front of the nation as a bunch of fringe idiots with unacceptable views, and at least in many cases temporarily fired them from their jobs and took their livelihoods. It's probably hard for them to consider themselves with the Left after what they see to be a royal screwing like that. Even if their political views recently related solely to the COVID vaccine / pandemic and they were otherwise left-leaning, the left essentially pushed them to the curb and they aren't likely going back or forgetting anytime soon. So I think they are definitely growing the demographic of "right-leaning" citizens that perhaps didn't exist prior to all of this or crossed the political spectrum. For the most part, the right is willing to take them, and if not the Conservatives, the alt-right is certainly happy to have them on board as they are very loudly and actively looking to grow. 

This group was and very much still is a prime target for Russian propaganda; they are distrustful of the current government which bent them over and screwed them during the pandemic, they are distrustful of our institutions including our healthcare and police. Ad to this; they were stranded at home by a government they hate for nearly two years with nothing but access to their computers and social media, and they started to look elsewhere for like-minded views, and they found them coming from Russia; it was hook, line, and sinker. We may as well have just gone to their homes and dropped off pamphlets directly from the Kremlin because this was truly a recipe for disaster.

I would be interested to see a chart showing what Canadian political demographics were most likely to fall for Russian propaganda prior to the pandemic, because the current study given everything that has happened seems somewhat predictable. Disclaimer; I also typically see the future of Canadian politics as being one of exhausting extremes between left and right, prime for aiming propaganda at the various groups of dissatisfied citizens, unless some kind of unexpected unifying event happens (And maybe even then) I suspect we will see a lot more effective online propaganda happening.


----------



## Kirkhill

823/1500 = 55% (55% of the population was left leaning)
548/1500 = 37% (37% of the population was of mixed views)
129/1500 = 9% (9% of the population was right leaning)

23% of the Left believed in Neo Nazi Ukraine
46% of the Mixed view group concurred
50% of the Right concurred.

23% of 55% is 13% 
46% of 37% is 17%
50% of 9% is 4%

34% of the population believed in Neo Nazi Ukraine

38% of the believers were left leaning
50% of the believers were of Mixed views
11% of the believers were right leaning

Fun with numbers.


----------



## Good2Golf

“Lies, damned lies, and statistics!”


----------



## CBH99

Mills Bomb said:


> This is just a personal observation / opinion;
> 
> Very few of the current anti-vaxxers and conspiracy types are "left-leaning" these days. The anti-vaccine types who were previously more "mixed" or "left leaning" prior to the pandemic seem to have drifted further to the right, in some cases the alt-right. After all it was JT and the left who humiliated them in front of the nation as a bunch of fringe idiots with unacceptable views, and at least in many cases temporarily fired them from their jobs and took their livelihoods. It's probably hard for them to consider themselves with the Left after what they see to be a royal screwing like that. Even if their political views recently related solely to the COVID vaccine / pandemic and they were otherwise left-leaning, the left essentially pushed them to the curb and they aren't likely going back or forgetting anytime soon. So I think they are definitely growing the demographic of "right-leaning" citizens that perhaps didn't exist prior to all of this or crossed the political spectrum. For the most part, the right is willing to take them, and if not the Conservatives, the alt-right is certainly happy to have them on board as they are very loudly and actively looking to grow.
> 
> This group was and very much still is a prime target for Russian propaganda; they are distrustful of the current government which bent them over and screwed them during the pandemic, they are distrustful of our institutions including our healthcare and police. Ad to this; they were stranded at home by a government they hate for nearly two years with nothing but access to their computers and social media, and they started to look elsewhere for like-minded views, and they found them coming from Russia; it was hook, line, and sinker. We may as well have just gone to their homes and dropped off pamphlets directly from the Kremlin because this was truly a recipe for disaster.
> 
> I would be interested to see a chart showing what Canadian political demographics were most likely to fall for Russian propaganda prior to the pandemic, because the current study given everything that has happened seems somewhat predictable. Disclaimer; I also typically see the future of Canadian politics as being one of exhausting extremes between left and right, prime for aiming propaganda at the various groups of dissatisfied citizens, unless some kind of unexpected unifying event happens (And maybe even then) I suspect we will see a lot more effective online propaganda happening.


That’s a fantastic post - well worded & good food for thought.


----------



## OldSolduer

rmc_wannabe said:


> Authoritarianism is the abusive boyfriend who lovebombs the downtrodden on the fringe in the beginning if the relationship. They promise to "fix" everything that is "wrong" with society and that things will be great if you just give them a chance.
> 
> It doesn't matter if it's Russia 2022/1917, China 1949, Germany 1933, Italy 1925, or Convoy Protesters/Emergency Act was justified in Canada 2022; it is a play book that is well known.


And then the abusive boyfriend kills, inters or otherwise "reeducates" the intelligentsia.


----------



## McG

Is Russia planning another bridging operation? Ukraine says yes. UK not sure.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1550719659468537856


----------



## Skysix

Interesting article on the fate of Ukraine after the war (if it survives) by a Canadian of Ukrainian descent.



			https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/07/22/in-post-war-ukraine-zelenskyy-will-face-fate-of-churchill-social-scientist/
		


"From the sociological point of view, we like to use the word horizontally – into networks – but it’s not about horizontal networks. It’s still about leadership, but not necessarily institutionalized leadership, as you would normally find in government and military bodies. It’s all about the term *heterarchy* – it’s flat with little 'bumps.' Periodically, there will be leaders that will turn around and say, 'Hey, this needs to be done, and I’m doing it. And by the way, it’s for a good cause. So mobilize around me.' They normally don’t even say 'mobilize around me' because people just do it."

I learned a new word today🤓


----------



## Skysix

11B tactics/grunt logic

_“The first line of trenches should be left empty. Why? The Russians had no idea that there was nobody there, they shelled them around the clock. Therefore, although there were orders to go to the first line, we quickly convinced everyone that we would sit in the second line, and only when the Russians brought a pontoon across Irpin, then we jumped to the first line. Russians also shell the crossroads. There was such a crossroad in Horenka, which was always shelled, and it was imperative not to go there at all. Two guys in my platoon went there and died.”_


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Very similar to WWI German tactics who kept the first line barely manned, but could man it in minutes via dugouts and communication trenches.


----------



## Skysix

Colin Parkinson said:


> Very similar to WWI German tactics who kept the first line barely manned, but could man it in minutes via dugouts and communication trenches.


Very few new lessons learned in war. Far more old lessons relearned the hard way.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Skysix said:


> 11B tactics/grunt logic
> 
> _“The first line of trenches should be left empty. Why? The Russians had no idea that there was nobody there, they shelled them around the clock. Therefore, although there were orders to go to the first line, we quickly convinced everyone that we would sit in the second line, and only when the Russians brought a pontoon across Irpin, then we jumped to the first line. Russians also shell the crossroads. There was such a crossroad in Horenka, which was always shelled, and it was imperative not to go there at all. Two guys in my platoon went there and died.”_



From watching various 'war porn' videos, from my retired R23A armchair, I'm seeing even more need for a few good MOS 11Cs out there FFS... sigh


----------



## Skysix

daftandbarmy said:


> From watching various 'war porn' videos, from my retired R23A armchair, I'm seeing even more need for a few good MOS 11Cs out there FFS... sigh


Mortarmen?


----------



## Skysix

Part 2. Also Interesting.



			https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/07/12/ukrainian-theology-professor-and-sniper-tells-why-russians-fight-for-putins-regime/


----------



## daftandbarmy

Skysix said:


> Mortarmen?



Dude.... Mortar _People_. 

Yes, mortars. Lotsa mortars of all shapes and sizes.

I keep seeing these stupid little firefights that could be easily cleaned up with a few good 60mm/ 81mm stonkings. Argh...


----------



## CBH99

I know, right?  Did we divert our 81mm mortars & 60mm when the C16 came online?

Or are they still usable, and held in warehouses at the battalions?


----------



## Retired AF Guy

daftandbarmy said:


> Dude.... Mortar _People_.
> 
> Yes, mortars. Lotsa mortars of all shapes and sizes.
> 
> I keep seeing these stupid little firefights that could be easily cleaned up with a few good 60mm/ 81mm stonkings. Argh...


Some 120mm mortars wouldn't hurt either.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Retired AF Guy said:


> Some 120mm mortars wouldn't hurt either.



They've got them, it seems: 




Of course I have no idea what's actually going on behind the scenes, but a few good mortar platoons can do a crap ton of damage.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> Ukraine says air force needs western fighter jets, and the US is preparing to help
> 
> 
> “Older U.S. systems are a possibility” as Ukraine builds its future air force, U.S. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.defensenews.com



Ukrainians not sold on the A-10s









						Ukraine Says It Needs ‘Fast and Versatile’ Aircraft, Not the A-10 - Air Force Magazine
					

U.S. Air Force leaders weighed in on fighter aircraft to Ukraine, but they may be suggesting the wrong platform, said a Ukrainian official.




					www.airforcemag.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> The Antonovskiy Bridge connecting Kherson to Crimea appears to be now out of action.
> 
> Coupled with the effect of HIMARS, moving the Russian supply dumps away from the front, disrupting rail supply and forcing greater reliance on trucks and roads,  it appears that Kherson is now cut off from Russian resupply.
> 
> There is a map I saw just recently that showed the movement of the dumps away from the frontline and the impact it had on transit times.  Can't find it though.
> 
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/w4jgss
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1550137813051506690
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian occupiers want to close Kherson bridge after Armed Forces of Ukraine hit it for the second time – Russian media
> 
> 
> IRYNA BALACHUK – WEDNESDAY, 20 JULY 2022, 12:49
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.pravda.com.ua
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1549334062363467776
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1549655188545355776
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/w3mv3u
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russians Move Their Ammo Depots Deeper in the Rear Because of Ukraine’s New Long-Range Artillery | Defense Express
> 
> 
> Russian occupation forces fear more warehouses destroyed by powerful Western weaponry
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.defence-ua.com




Meanwhile another demonstration of precision on a bridge across the Ingulets.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/w68tyq


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> Meanwhile another demonstration of precision on a bridge across the Ingulets.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/w68tyq



I was concerned that the Ukrainians weren't taking out these bridges but ....

Maybe they are playing it canny....weakening the structures rather than destroying them?  The bridge may no longer support heavy traffic but could still support light vehicles and foot traffic allowing the locals to still move around  -  but tanks and SPHs and ammo trucks?


----------



## Skysix

daftandbarmy said:


> They've got them, it seems:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Of course I have no idea what's actually going on behind the scenes, but a few good mortar platoons can do a crap ton of damage.


What are they adding ahead of the fins? Wouldn't that affect accuracy? And it looks like they would need to re-register after each shot it moves around so much, or is the range/CEP/blast radius such that it doesn't matter?


----------



## AmmoTech90

Skysix said:


> What are they adding ahead of the fins? Wouldn't that affect accuracy? And it looks like they would need to re-register after each shot it moves around so much, or is the range/CEP/blast radius such that it doesn't matter?


That's the propelling charge.  Yes, they check the lay the mortar after each shot and adjust it back on as needed.


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> I was concerned that the Ukrainians weren't taking out these bridges but ....
> 
> Maybe they are playing it canny....weakening the structures rather than destroying them?  The bridge may no longer support heavy traffic but could still support light vehicles and foot traffic allowing the locals to still move around  -  but tanks and SPHs and ammo trucks?


That seems to be what they are doing, there are also reports they did it to the bridge at Nova Kahovka,  meaning Russia can't get heavy equipment to the front any more.


----------



## MilEME09

Canadian has been killed in Donbas 








						Russian tank attack in eastern Ukraine kills 2 Americans, Canadian and Swede
					

U.S. citizens Luke “Skywalker” Lucyszyn and Bryan Young were killed when they were ambushed during a special operation in eastern Ukraine, their commander said.




					www.politico.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

Touche


----------



## MilEME09

Meanwhile Poland is making us all look bad


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1551336418257125377


----------



## NavyShooter

Purported to be a section from a barrel on a Russian BMP that the UKR forces did a bit of a 'deep dive' on in terms of technical condition.

One would ponder how many layers of QC this thing got through to have been installed on an AFV with this level of - wrong.


----------



## OldSolduer

NavyShooter said:


> Purported to be a section from a barrel on a Russian BMP that the UKR forces did a bit of a 'deep dive' on in terms of technical condition.
> 
> One would ponder how many layers of QC this thing got through to have been installed on an AFV with this level of - wrong.
> 
> View attachment 72175


That thing ain't gonna work very well.


----------



## CBH99

MilEME09 said:


> Meanwhile Poland is making us all look bad
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1551336418257125377


This will actually be so cool to see, once the kit is delivered and in service.  

A western nation by all accounts, that operates primarily S. Korean equipment.  

It’ll be interesting to see how effective S. Korean kit really is, it’s reliability, how it operates in a climate quite different than it was designed for, etc.  


Okay okay okay, we get it Poland… you can stop showing up the rest of us now, point well made!


----------



## MilEME09

CBH99 said:


> This will actually be so cool to see, once the kit is delivered and in service.
> 
> A western nation by all accounts, that operates primarily S. Korean equipment.
> 
> It’ll be interesting to see how effective S. Korean kit really is, it’s reliability, how it operates in a climate quite different than it was designed for, etc.
> 
> 
> Okay okay okay, we get it Poland… you can stop showing up the rest of us now, point well made!


Poland is also going to produce some of it domestically


----------



## CBH99

MilEME09 said:


> Poland is also going to produce some of it domestically


So perhaps some minor modifications as needed, re climate differences & electronics/comms 

Still going to be pretty cool to see a western nation using non-western, non-Russian, non-Soviet era kit 😎👏


----------



## CBH99

Did we divest our 60mm and 81mm mortars, when the C16 came online?  Or do we have them available for use?


(I went to K Days in Edmonton yesterday, and finally saw a C16 & got to play with it.  After the shock wore off of seeing this imaginary weapon system in real life, my very first thought truly was…man portable??  Yeah no…)


----------



## daftandbarmy

CBH99 said:


> Did we divest our 60mm and 81mm mortars, when the C16 came online?  Or do we have them available for use?
> 
> 
> (I went to K Days in Edmonton yesterday, and finally saw a C16 & got to play with it.  After the shock wore off of seeing this imaginary weapon system in real life, my very first thought truly was…man portable??  Yeah no…)



Excuse me while I....


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> Meanwhile Poland is making us all look bad
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1551336418257125377


looks like they want to be able to take Russia on all by themselves. Makes sense to not be at the whim of France or Germany. Do they keep the plan to acquire the Abrams? I wonder if the K2 will have German engines and transmissions or Korean ones?


----------



## MilEME09

CBH99 said:


> Did we divest our 60mm and 81mm mortars, when the C16 came online?  Or do we have them available for use?
> 
> 
> (I went to K Days in Edmonton yesterday, and finally saw a C16 & got to play with it.  After the shock wore off of seeing this imaginary weapon system in real life, my very first thought truly was…man portable??  Yeah no…)


60mm no, 81mm yes, and yeah the C16 is actually heavier then a 50 cal. Way better as a mounted weapon, dumb idea to have it dismounted.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> 60mm no, 81mm yes, and yeah the C16 is actually heavier then a 50 cal. Way better as a mounted weapon, dumb idea to have it dismounted.


We divested the 60mm (I fired the last rounds in Petawawa), we still have the 81mm in service.

We also divested the .50 cal 😄


----------



## KevinB

suffolkowner said:


> looks like they want to be able to take Russia on all by themselves. Makes sense to not be at the whim of France or Germany. Do they keep the plan to acquire the Abrams? I wonder if the K2 will have German engines and transmissions or Korean ones?


Poland has Abrams. (IIRC 400 or so) 
   Poland also has Leo2’s and some Challenger 2’s.  
  Poland has wanted domestic AFV production of a Western Style system for a while - and the South Korean kit is about as close to Western (heavy US influence) gear as possible - and willing to license production.


----------



## MilEME09

Humphrey Bogart said:


> We divested the 60mm (I fired the last rounds in Petawawa), we still have the 81mm in service.
> 
> We also divested the .50 cal 😄


.50 is back again...I took my tech course in 2019 for it after it came back. Which was the pilot course


----------



## CBH99

Why on earth did we divest .50 as a ‘capability’ - although it bemoans me to call  having heavy machine guns a ‘capability.’

What was the reasoning behind getting rid of them?  

(I am assuming it is stupid which is why they brought them back.)


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> Poland has Abrams. (IIRC 400 or so)
> Poland also has Leo2’s and some Challenger 2’s.
> Poland has wanted domestic AFV production of a Western Style system for a while - and the South Korean kit is about as close to Western (heavy US influence) gear as possible - and willing to license production.



Snubbed by the West in 4th Gen Tank development, they had to turn to the East. 

Nice to see Europe is maintaining certain sectarian, self-defeating traditions


----------



## daftandbarmy

The tide is turning... if the West wants it to:
​The tide is turning in Russia’s war on Ukraine​
23 July 2022, 11:02pm

Could Russia triumph? There's a growing sense that, as the months wear on, Ukraine's resistance is faltering. The West is losing interest in the conflict and the unthinkable is being said: Putin is winning the war on and off the battlefield. 

The image of countless hordes of Russian troops grinding down the Ukrainian defences with a 3-to-1 advantage in artillery is at first glance quite convincing. Meanwhile, off the battlefield, the ruble rate is sky high, and sanctions seem to have no discernible effect on the war. Putin’s fiercest opponent Boris Johnson is leaving office, and the energy-dependency of Europe seems to play right into Russia’s hands. 

Putin now occupies nearly 25 per cent of Ukraine and is attempting, with limited success, to Russify these areas. Territorial gains in Donbas are important, if mostly symbolically – particularly as the invasion took place under the pretext of rescuing the region from the Ukrainian ‘Nazis’. Yet these gains have come at a high price: Putin recently declared an ‘operational pause’ in the fighting, claiming the soldiers should 'have some rest'. But it’s a lot more likely this is a sign of depletion, and that no major new offensive is possible until more reserves arrive from Russia to make up the losses. 

This, at least, is the assessment of the head of MI6, Richard Moore, who said this week Russia was about to 'run out of steam'. 'Our assessment is that the Russians will increasingly find it difficult to find manpower and materiel over the next few weeks,' he told Aspen's security forum, in a rare public appearance.

This tallies with indications of the growing Russian death toll on the battlefields of Ukraine. Although Putin is clearly prepared to tolerate a huge number of Russian fatalities (the UK government conservatively estimates them at 15,000: the figure of Russian dead in nine years of the Afghanistan war), the current attritional nature of the war has made the availability of operational reserves a crucial factor, and the barrel is now not so much being scraped as scoured. In late June and early July, the _HeadHunter_ website revealed job vacancies under the heading ‘Military Serviceman Under Contract’, uploaded by the Federal Service of the National Guard (after the RBC news agency applied for the job with a request for clarification, the advert was taken down). More recently, manpower shortages have forced the Russian army to hunt for personnel among the country’s prison population, to replenish the Wagner mercenaries group.

There have been other signs that Russia's military is struggling. At the end of June, a new law was proposed allowing secondary school graduates in Russia to sign army contracts without previous training or without having served in the army draft (at present, contracts can only be signed after three months of draft service). It was subsequently put aside and may well have been a litmus-test of the public’s mood. 
Revealing, too, was a recent closed poll of the Russian public conducted on the orders of the Kremlin, its results subsequently obtained by the_ Meduza _news outlet. A third of Russians, they reported, are convinced the war must be stopped immediately. Taking into account the repressive laws in Russia that bar open scepticism about Putin’s invasion, this figure is likely to be an underestimate. Russian society may very well be split down the middle on this issue, with any future mass mobilisation thus bringing unimaginable consequences.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-curse-of-deadmin-
The only answer, it seems, for Putin to deal with the military shortfall is the ‘hidden’ mobilisation of those with the bare minimum of military experience. Yet this has already gone on since the start of the invasion. And this inflow is clearly insufficient for achieving strategic goals in Ukraine, for which, according to military analysts’ estimates, Russia would need at least 500,000 troops. Some of Putin’s recent attempts to shore up his army seem frankly desperate: the creation, for example, in many regions of ‘volunteer battalions’ of about 400 fighters each. This may add up to 15-25,000 soldiers – depending on how many Russian regions succeed in creating them. Yet given that in most the upper age-limit for soldiers has been increased to 50 and in some areas even to 60, the quality of these troops is open to question.  Russia’s apparently unlimited human resources can thus only be used in a strictly limited way. 

The Ukrainian army is also suffering heavy casualties, of course, though their manpower situation is quite different. In Ukraine, mobilisation was announced right after the invasion; as the Ukrainian defence minister told the Times in a recent interview, Ukraine is massing a million-strong fighting force to take back its southern territory, equipped with western weapons.

Much, indeed, now depends on these Western weapons. While Russia has been reduced to falling back on old stocks, Ukraine’s inflow of materiel is potentially limitless. Yet this is only true if – a big if – the West is really committed to seeing her win. Recently we saw how Ukraine, using Himars high-precision missile systems provided by the US, destroyed more than 20 major Russian ammunition depots and command posts that were until then too far behind the front lines for traditional artillery. By the end of July, Ukraine will still have only 12 HIMARS units. Though it’s causing considerable logistical problems to the Russians, scattering their reserves and hindering any meaningful attack, it’s still not enough to support an offensive. As defense minister Reznikov put it: 'We need more HIMARS and we need them urgently'

Will these actually arrive in the necessary quantities? While Ukrainian cities are being methodically destroyed in a rocket terror-campaign, it seems the West is committed simply to sustaining a stalemate. They are bringing to the front just enough ammo for the Ukrainians to hold out, but to do little more than that. There is a widespread assumption that the war in Ukraine is 'existential' for Putin – something he cannot lose. As Margarita Simonyan, one of Russia's chief propagandists, told TV viewers back in April, nuclear conflict is 'more probable' than Russia accepting outright defeat. Behind the Western parsimony may lie the fear that Putin will resort to escalation (nuclear or otherwise) if the army is pushed back to Russia’s borders. At the same time, Russia has already failed and made its retreat in the north; it recently pulled out troops from the strategically important Snake Island, spinning it to the world as a gesture of Russian 'good will'. 

What prevents Russia, then, from accumulating enough 'good will' to give up the whole territory of Ukraine? There is no pretext too absurd these days to be foisted by a pliant Russian media on the public:  that the goals of the ‘special military operation’ have been achieved, the ‘vicious attack’ on Russia foiled, and that it’s now going home time in the bloodlands of the Dnieper. The popularity of this war is not such that Putin need be over-concerned about the pro-war lobby. Should the flow of modern ammo from the West increase, he might be left with no other option but a climbdown, something he will definitely wish to avoid through ‘negotiations’.  The Ukrainians may have been warned by Russian deputy minister of foreign affairs Andrey Rudenko to come to their senses and the negotiating table before Russian territorial gains get any greater. But ‘territorial reality’ is a fluid thing these days and can change in Ukraine’s favour too: there are credible plans afoot to retake Kherson, and in areas around the city Ukrainians are slowly but steadily pushing back. 

With enough weaponry from the West and enough ‘good will’ from Moscow, the Ukrainians could win this war. Whether the Western powers-that-be actually want them to – that is another matter.



Written bySasha Lensky
Sasha Lensky is a pseudonym of a Russian citizen known to The Spectator. He writes anonymously due to censorship laws










						The tide is turning in Russia's war on Ukraine
					

Western allies are giving Ukraine enough weaponry to sustain its fight but not to defeat Putin




					www.spectator.co.uk


----------



## KevinB

NavyShooter said:


> Purported to be a section from a barrel on a Russian BMP that the UKR forces did a bit of a 'deep dive' on in terms of technical condition.
> 
> One would ponder how many layers of QC this thing got through to have been installed on an AFV with this level of - wrong.
> 
> View attachment 72175


Color me unsurprised...


----------



## Brad Sallows

If equipment was not expected to have long service lives in active war, sacrificing stringent quality control for rapid production might be a reasonable tradeoff.


----------



## GK .Dundas

Brad Sallows said:


> If equipment was not expected to have long service lives in active war, sacrificing stringent quality control for rapid production might be a reasonable tradeoff.


Ahh.....you did see the photo ?
There is a difference between sacrificing stringent quality control  and ...and what ever the hell that is.
We've been here too ,Reminds me of the 1915-16 Shell scandal.


----------



## CBH99

daftandbarmy said:


> The tide is turning... if the West wants it to:
> ​The tide is turning in Russia’s war on Ukraine​
> 23 July 2022, 11:02pm
> 
> Could Russia triumph? There's a growing sense that, as the months wear on, Ukraine's resistance is faltering. The West is losing interest in the conflict and the unthinkable is being said: Putin is winning the war on and off the battlefield.
> 
> The image of countless hordes of Russian troops grinding down the Ukrainian defences with a 3-to-1 advantage in artillery is at first glance quite convincing. Meanwhile, off the battlefield, the ruble rate is sky high, and sanctions seem to have no discernible effect on the war. Putin’s fiercest opponent Boris Johnson is leaving office, and the energy-dependency of Europe seems to play right into Russia’s hands.
> 
> Putin now occupies nearly 25 per cent of Ukraine and is attempting, with limited success, to Russify these areas. Territorial gains in Donbas are important, if mostly symbolically – particularly as the invasion took place under the pretext of rescuing the region from the Ukrainian ‘Nazis’. Yet these gains have come at a high price: Putin recently declared an ‘operational pause’ in the fighting, claiming the soldiers should 'have some rest'. But it’s a lot more likely this is a sign of depletion, and that no major new offensive is possible until more reserves arrive from Russia to make up the losses.
> 
> This, at least, is the assessment of the head of MI6, Richard Moore, who said this week Russia was about to 'run out of steam'. 'Our assessment is that the Russians will increasingly find it difficult to find manpower and materiel over the next few weeks,' he told Aspen's security forum, in a rare public appearance.
> 
> This tallies with indications of the growing Russian death toll on the battlefields of Ukraine. Although Putin is clearly prepared to tolerate a huge number of Russian fatalities (the UK government conservatively estimates them at 15,000: the figure of Russian dead in nine years of the Afghanistan war), the current attritional nature of the war has made the availability of operational reserves a crucial factor, and the barrel is now not so much being scraped as scoured. In late June and early July, the _HeadHunter_ website revealed job vacancies under the heading ‘Military Serviceman Under Contract’, uploaded by the Federal Service of the National Guard (after the RBC news agency applied for the job with a request for clarification, the advert was taken down). More recently, manpower shortages have forced the Russian army to hunt for personnel among the country’s prison population, to replenish the Wagner mercenaries group.
> 
> There have been other signs that Russia's military is struggling. At the end of June, a new law was proposed allowing secondary school graduates in Russia to sign army contracts without previous training or without having served in the army draft (at present, contracts can only be signed after three months of draft service). It was subsequently put aside and may well have been a litmus-test of the public’s mood.
> Revealing, too, was a recent closed poll of the Russian public conducted on the orders of the Kremlin, its results subsequently obtained by the_ Meduza _news outlet. A third of Russians, they reported, are convinced the war must be stopped immediately. Taking into account the repressive laws in Russia that bar open scepticism about Putin’s invasion, this figure is likely to be an underestimate. Russian society may very well be split down the middle on this issue, with any future mass mobilisation thus bringing unimaginable consequences.
> The curse of ‘deadmin’ | The Spectator
> The only answer, it seems, for Putin to deal with the military shortfall is the ‘hidden’ mobilisation of those with the bare minimum of military experience. Yet this has already gone on since the start of the invasion. And this inflow is clearly insufficient for achieving strategic goals in Ukraine, for which, according to military analysts’ estimates, Russia would need at least 500,000 troops. Some of Putin’s recent attempts to shore up his army seem frankly desperate: the creation, for example, in many regions of ‘volunteer battalions’ of about 400 fighters each. This may add up to 15-25,000 soldiers – depending on how many Russian regions succeed in creating them. Yet given that in most the upper age-limit for soldiers has been increased to 50 and in some areas even to 60, the quality of these troops is open to question.  Russia’s apparently unlimited human resources can thus only be used in a strictly limited way.
> 
> The Ukrainian army is also suffering heavy casualties, of course, though their manpower situation is quite different. In Ukraine, mobilisation was announced right after the invasion; as the Ukrainian defence minister told the Times in a recent interview, Ukraine is massing a million-strong fighting force to take back its southern territory, equipped with western weapons.
> 
> Much, indeed, now depends on these Western weapons. While Russia has been reduced to falling back on old stocks, Ukraine’s inflow of materiel is potentially limitless. Yet this is only true if – a big if – the West is really committed to seeing her win. Recently we saw how Ukraine, using Himars high-precision missile systems provided by the US, destroyed more than 20 major Russian ammunition depots and command posts that were until then too far behind the front lines for traditional artillery. By the end of July, Ukraine will still have only 12 HIMARS units. Though it’s causing considerable logistical problems to the Russians, scattering their reserves and hindering any meaningful attack, it’s still not enough to support an offensive. As defense minister Reznikov put it: 'We need more HIMARS and we need them urgently'
> 
> Will these actually arrive in the necessary quantities? While Ukrainian cities are being methodically destroyed in a rocket terror-campaign, it seems the West is committed simply to sustaining a stalemate. They are bringing to the front just enough ammo for the Ukrainians to hold out, but to do little more than that. There is a widespread assumption that the war in Ukraine is 'existential' for Putin – something he cannot lose. As Margarita Simonyan, one of Russia's chief propagandists, told TV viewers back in April, nuclear conflict is 'more probable' than Russia accepting outright defeat. Behind the Western parsimony may lie the fear that Putin will resort to escalation (nuclear or otherwise) if the army is pushed back to Russia’s borders. At the same time, Russia has already failed and made its retreat in the north; it recently pulled out troops from the strategically important Snake Island, spinning it to the world as a gesture of Russian 'good will'.
> 
> What prevents Russia, then, from accumulating enough 'good will' to give up the whole territory of Ukraine? There is no pretext too absurd these days to be foisted by a pliant Russian media on the public:  that the goals of the ‘special military operation’ have been achieved, the ‘vicious attack’ on Russia foiled, and that it’s now going home time in the bloodlands of the Dnieper. The popularity of this war is not such that Putin need be over-concerned about the pro-war lobby. Should the flow of modern ammo from the West increase, he might be left with no other option but a climbdown, something he will definitely wish to avoid through ‘negotiations’.  The Ukrainians may have been warned by Russian deputy minister of foreign affairs Andrey Rudenko to come to their senses and the negotiating table before Russian territorial gains get any greater. But ‘territorial reality’ is a fluid thing these days and can change in Ukraine’s favour too: there are credible plans afoot to retake Kherson, and in areas around the city Ukrainians are slowly but steadily pushing back.
> 
> With enough weaponry from the West and enough ‘good will’ from Moscow, the Ukrainians could win this war. Whether the Western powers-that-be actually want them to – that is another matter.
> 
> 
> 
> Written bySasha Lensky
> Sasha Lensky is a pseudonym of a Russian citizen known to The Spectator. He writes anonymously due to censorship laws
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The tide is turning in Russia's war on Ukraine
> 
> 
> Western allies are giving Ukraine enough weaponry to sustain its fight but not to defeat Putin
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.spectator.co.uk


I’ve thought about this possibility since just after the first week or two, when it became clear that it was going to be a protracted conflict and not a short but intense skirmish. 

Even in Crimea, the Russians had basically won before anybody clued in they’d been invaded.  I remember watching people film the Russian helicopters fly overhead during the initial invasion, cheering that Russia had finally come to take that region again.  

The Ukrainians had nothing mobilized, The Russians showed up looking far more professional and capable than we had ever seen them, and as far as invasions go it was downright civil.  

______

But now, the Russians are back to being…Russians.  Their equipment isn’t as scary as we thought, and their logistics weren’t exactly up to the task.  

Their “eye watering” EW capabilities don’t seem to be an issue this time around.  In fact, it seems the Ukrainians have the distinct advantage in terms of intercepting phone calls & radio traffic, intelligence on the location of Russian forces, when HVT’s are going to be present with those forces, and seem to be able to operate drones without much resistance.  

Their primary combat aircraft, attack helicopter, and utility helicopter fleets have been destroyed.  As has a majority of their modern tanks & AFV’s.  Regardless of which number you go off of, a good chunk of their professional soldiers have been killed (with probably 2-3 times that amount wounded.)

To summarize - the Ukrainians have shit kicked the Russians to the point it will take them YEARS just to get back to where they initially were.  


But unless Vlad changes his mind, they are ‘committed’ to Ukraine for now…T-64’s and all.  😐

(I say committed loosely, the Russian population clearly hasn’t supported this from the start)

______

Does the west want Ukraine to have a decisive victory?  To blast the Russian military out of existence?

It would certainly make things easier when it comes to deciding which possible enemy to focus our assets on…

Or does the west want Russia bogged down in a prolonged conflict of its own making?  (Preventing Russia from reconstituting their forces.)


Which is more ideal, or strategically preferred??


----------



## CBH99

GK .Dundas said:


> Ahh.....you did see the photo ?
> There is a difference between sacrificing stringent quality control  and ...and what ever the hell that is.
> We've been here too ,Reminds me of the 1915-16 Shell scandal.


How old ARE you bro?


----------



## GK .Dundas

According to my wife some days I'm a 3 year old and some days I'm ancient and decrepit...and feel it too ! 😆


----------



## McG

CBH99 said:


> Why on earth did we divest .50 as a ‘capability’ - although it bemoans me to call having heavy machine guns a ‘capability.’
> 
> What was the reasoning behind getting rid of them?
> 
> (I am assuming it is stupid which is why they brought them back.)


There is a finite amount of money in the NP budget (which is clearly large enough because we are "punching above our weight" despite falling short of the aspirational 2% of GDP funding). So if the military wants to introduce a new system that will consume ammunition, it needs to cut an existing something with comparable annual costs for consumables ... and it is easiest to do the math if that annual savings comes from a consumable that is also ammunition.


----------



## CBH99

I feel like I just drove a race track and ended up rear-ending…myself.  

Huh?? 🤨

(Did we divest something else that consumes ammo, so that we could bring back the .50?

I won’t be offended if you talk to me like I’m a bit dim)


----------



## Colin Parkinson

CBH99 said:


> This will actually be so cool to see, once the kit is delivered and in service.
> 
> A western nation by all accounts, that operates primarily S. Korean equipment.
> 
> It’ll be interesting to see how effective S. Korean kit really is, it’s reliability, how it operates in a climate quite different than it was designed for, etc.
> 
> 
> Okay okay okay, we get it Poland… you can stop showing up the rest of us now, point well made!


Apparently 69% of 155 SPG's in the world are K9's


----------



## Eaglelord17

So a bit earlier I asked about the effect all the ammo Russia had shot through their arty and the effects it would have on their barrels. Time answered the question for me.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1551294834027249664


----------



## Good2Golf

…so…less accurate CEP?


----------



## Spencer100

Good2Golf said:


> …so…less accurate CEP?


Do they care at this point?


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Ahh.....you did see the photo ?



Yeah.  Equipment expected to be destroyed in a few days could tolerate a few defects.


----------



## Skysix

CBH99 said:


> I’ve thought about this possibility since just after the first week or two, when it became clear that it was going to be a protracted conflict and not a short but intense skirmish.
> 
> Even in Crimea, the Russians had basically won before anybody clued in they’d been invaded.  I remember watching people film the Russian helicopters fly overhead during the initial invasion, cheering that Russia had finally come to take that region again.
> 
> The Ukrainians had nothing mobilized, The Russians showed up looking far more professional and capable than we had ever seen them, and as far as invasions go it was downright civil.
> 
> ______
> 
> But now, the Russians are back to being…Russians.  Their equipment isn’t as scary as we thought, and their logistics weren’t exactly up to the task.
> 
> Their “eye watering” EW capabilities don’t seem to be an issue this time around.  In fact, it seems the Ukrainians have the distinct advantage in terms of intercepting phone calls & radio traffic, intelligence on the location of Russian forces, when HVT’s are going to be present with those forces, and seem to be able to operate drones without much resistance.
> 
> Their primary combat aircraft, attack helicopter, and utility helicopter fleets have been destroyed.  As has a majority of their modern tanks & AFV’s.  Regardless of which number you go off of, a good chunk of their professional soldiers have been killed (with probably 2-3 times that amount wounded.)
> 
> To summarize - the Ukrainians have shit kicked the Russians to the point it will take them YEARS just to get back to where they initially were.
> 
> 
> But unless Vlad changes his mind, they are ‘committed’ to Ukraine for now…T-64’s and all.  😐
> 
> (I say committed loosely, the Russian population clearly hasn’t supported this from the start)
> 
> ______
> 
> Does the west want Ukraine to have a decisive victory?  To blast the Russian military out of existence?
> 
> It would certainly make things easier when it comes to deciding which possible enemy to focus our assets on…
> 
> Or does the west want Russia bogged down in a prolonged conflict of its own making?  (Preventing Russia from reconstituting their forces.)
> 
> 
> Which is more ideal, or strategically preferred??


The west will support Ukraine to the last drop of Ukrainian blood. And Putin knows it - NATO is not going to uparm Ukraine fast enough to stop this. Only incremental piecemeal supplies of a 'non threatening' nature.

Have any 24/7 155mm production lines even been activated yet?









						Ukraine wants more ‘game-changer’ weapons; the US says it’s complicated
					

The administration announced Friday that it would send four additional HIMARS — High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems — to Ukraine, bringing the total to 16.




					www.stripes.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Skysix said:


> The west will support Ukraine to the last drop of Ukrainian blood. And Putin knows it - NATO is not going to uparm Ukraine fast enough to stop this. Only incremental piecemeal supplies of a 'non threatening' nature.
> 
> Have any 24/7 155mm production lines even been activated yet?


The West is not so omnipotent being, it's a bunch of so-so politicians more worried about domestic politics and polls, along with career bureaucrats that rarely get things right. The "West" is like dating someone with multiple personalities, addictions and PTSD, not to mention daddy issues.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Join the Railway troops, you won't have to live in a trench they said. They failed to mention there are no parts to fix the locomotive engine.


----------



## Skysix

Colin Parkinson said:


> Join the Railway troops, you won't have to live in a trench they said. They failed to mention there are no parts to fix the locomotive engine.


Insert Army recruiter 'camping' meme here


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> Ukraine wants more ‘game-changer’ weapons; the US says it’s complicated
> 
> 
> The administration announced Friday that it would send four additional HIMARS — High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems — to Ukraine, bringing the total to 16.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.stripes.com



After this war I predict the major arms suppliers will be South Korea, Turkey and Poland with Japan and Israel supplying novel technologies.   The UK might get a look in as might Sweden and Norway.

The French, Germans and Italians, as well as the US and the Swiss are being too pretty by half in deciding if or when or what they can supply. They are not reliable suppliers.

Nobody is going to be buying Russian or even Chinese kit for a long time if they can afford anything better.  A different type of unreliable.


WRT the HIMARs and the weapons stocks of PGMs and LRPFs in general:  the US Army and the USMC will be wanting all of those they can get for their own use.


----------



## Kirkhill

Colin Parkinson said:


> Join the Railway troops, you won't have to live in a trench they said. They failed to mention there are no parts to fix the locomotive engine.



Need a hand tovarisch?


----------



## Skysix

"The French, Germans and Italians, as well as the US and the Swiss are being too pretty by half in deciding if or when or what they can supply. They are not reliable suppliers"


----------



## Skysix

@Kirkhill
"The French, Germans and Italians, as well as the US and the Swiss are being too petty by half in deciding if or when or what they can supply. They are not reliable suppliers"

FTFY


----------



## CBH99

This goes back to something @KevinB said somewhere previous in this thread.  

Mainland Europe is not producing any particularly impressive weapon systems right now anyway - anything you could buy from the lakes of Germany you could buy from someone else also, and probably get a better deal with more reliable support.  (Looking at you Poland, South Korea.)

I don’t know if I would include Turkey in there list.  I think in this case it would depend on whether your enemy is also their enemy…


----------



## daftandbarmy

3/30 in country...

Ukraine receives first batch of German Gepard air defense systems​

*Ukraine’s defense minister Oleksiy Reznikov has confirmed the country took delivery of three German short-range air defense systems. *

“Today, the first three Gepards officially arrived. These are anti-aircraft systems, to which tens of thousands of rounds of ammunition have been transferred to us. We are waiting for the first 15 Gepards. Three have arrived in Ukraine today. They are already at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” said Oleksiy Reznikov on Monday.

In mid-July, the German government announced that it planned to send at least 30 Gepard air-defense “tanks” to help that country repel Russian attacks.









						Ukraine receives first batch of German Gepard air defense systems
					

Ukraine’s defense minister Oleksiy Reznikov has confirmed the country took delivery of three German short-range air defense systems. "Today, the first three Gepards officially arrived. These are anti-aircraft systems, to which tens of thousands of rounds of ammunition have been transferred to...




					defence-blog.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Kirkhill said:


> After this war I predict the major arms suppliers will be South Korea, Turkey and Poland with Japan and Israel supplying novel technologies.   The UK might get a look in as might Sweden and Norway.
> 
> The French, Germans and Italians, as well as the US and the Swiss are being too pretty by half in deciding if or when or what they can supply. They are not reliable suppliers.
> 
> Nobody is going to be buying Russian or even Chinese kit for a long time if they can afford anything better.  A different type of unreliable.
> 
> 
> WRT the HIMARs and the weapons stocks of PGMs and LRPFs in general:  the US Army and the USMC will be wanting all of those they can get for their own use.


Africa will buy Chinese kit, it's mostly on a level their average solider can deal with.


----------



## Kirkhill

Colin Parkinson said:


> Africa will buy Chinese kit, it's mostly on a level their average solider can deal with.



Or is it just straight barter - resources for arms?


----------



## CBH99

CBH99 said:


> This goes back to something @KevinB said somewhere previous in this thread.
> 
> Mainland Europe is not producing any particularly impressive weapon systems right now anyway - anything you could buy from the lakes of Germany you could buy from someone else also, and probably get a better deal with more reliable support.  (Looking at you Poland, South Korea.)
> 
> I don’t know if I would include Turkey in there list.  I think in this case it would depend on whether your enemy is also their enemy…


Forgive the many spelling and grammar errors wrt my post above.  I hate typing on my Samsung, still haven’t gotten used to it.

I’m not sure Germany is a great source of arms these days.  Their support is willy-nilly & not completely reliable.  

Turkey?  I’d strongly disagree with for a variety of reasons.  

France could be a good option, their kit ain’t too shabby at all.  Plus they keep enough muscle to enforce their own foreign policy, and their kit is designed to be used in enforcing that foreign policy.

S. Korea makes good kit, and isn’t a vested partner in the region.  I’d say that makes them more reliable, and by most means they seem pretty efficient. 

Business savvy too, from the sounds of it.  Saw an opportunity, and pursued it.  


_I think the US will stay a major player in selling arms.  Way too much money to be made for them to not be._


----------



## Maxman1

CBH99 said:


> Why on earth did we divest .50 as a ‘capability’ - although it bemoans me to call  having heavy machine guns a ‘capability.’
> 
> What was the reasoning behind getting rid of them?
> 
> (I am assuming it is stupid which is why they brought them back.)



Probably something along this line of thinking:


----------



## KevinB

CBH99 said:


> Why on earth did we divest .50 as a ‘capability’ - although it bemoans me to call  having heavy machine guns a ‘capability.’
> 
> What was the reasoning behind getting rid of them?
> 
> (I am assuming it is stupid which is why they brought them back.)


I suspect the concept was to divest the M2 due to the C-16 GMG, honestly one could make a decent case for that as opposed to the 60mm (and I still despise the 60mm).  
    Of course one didn't have enough M2 to begin with (if you realize they make a good vehicle mounted system) and bought nowhere enough C-16 to use as a vehicle weapon...


----------



## Retired AF Guy

MilEME09 said:


> Meanwhile Poland is making us all look bad
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1551336418257125377


If anyone is interested here is some background info on the Borsuk IFV and K2PL MBT:
*K2PL: A Polish-Korean Future Main Battle Tank. Proposal With Support*​*Polish Armed Forces Procure the First Borsuk IFVs*​


----------



## brihard

Interest chatter in the past hour or two. There’s a bunch of video showing _something_ getting hammered hard in Kherson tonight; locals are apparently saying it was the bridge. I think RU had established a pontoon bridge adjacent to it. I look forward to the OS BDA once the sun comes up in five hours.


----------



## Skysix

Children tied up and men in cots in Ukraine orphanages - BBC News
					

A BBC News investigation uncovers widespread abuse of disabled children and adults in institutions.




					www.bbc.com
				




The subtext of this report is that Ukraine should not be allowed to join the Eu because they persist in Soviet era care methods of the disabled. IE: we don't want such primitives in the EU.

"useful idiots" that (hopefully) do not realise they are assisting the Russian efforts to annex Ukraine by reducing the Wests willingness to fund/militarily support the Ukrainians fight to retain their soverignity.


----------



## MilEME09

Developments out of Kherson this evening


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1552049073552859138

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1552048730756595712


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> Developments out of Kherson this evening
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1552049073552859138
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1552048730756595712


Yup, but nothing conclusive there. Still 3 hours til sunrise. Photos and video of the damage came out quick last time. We’ll have something solid by tomorrow am our time.


----------



## Skysix




----------



## TacticalTea

Skysix said:


> Children tied up and men in cots in Ukraine orphanages - BBC News
> 
> 
> A BBC News investigation uncovers widespread abuse of disabled children and adults in institutions.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The subtext of this report is that Ukraine should not be allowed to join the Eu because they persist in Soviet era care methods of the disabled. IE: we don't want such primitives in the EU.
> 
> "useful idiots" that (hopefully) do not realise they are assisting the Russian efforts to annex Ukraine by reducing the Wests willingness to fund/militarily support the Ukrainians fight to retain their soverignity.


Nonsense.

I'll bet a hundred that writer's paid by Russia.

It's not that she might be lying, but rather, that the timing is ridiculously inopportune and harmful.


----------



## MilEME09

TacticalTea said:


> Nonsense.
> 
> I'll bet a hundred that writer's paid by Russia.
> 
> It's not that she might be lying, but rather, that the timing is ridiculously inopportune and harmful.


Ukraine isn't as rosy as we think if you read any of amnesty internationals reports over the years. I agree though, take it with a grain of salt


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> Ukraine isn't as rosy as we think if you read any of amnesty internationals reports over the years. I agree though, take it with a grain of salt


I don't think Ukraine is rosy at all. It's an eastern European ex-USSR republic - with all that entails - that's consistently suffered from corruption and a varying degree of political lethargy before and after the fall of the Soviet Union.

But today? It's Europe's bulwark against tyranny, the easternmost democracy on the continent and its entire society is dedicated to the task of pushing back the Russian invaders.

Ruth Clegg is an idiot. Zero ability to read the room or to exercise judgment. Or, a malicious actor.

If we're not going to support them as much as we should, it behooves us all to AT LEAST not give Russia any more ammo.


----------



## Skysix

China sending troops and tanks to Russia
					

The Chinese military is sending a delegation of troops and military vehicles to participate in a series of military competitions in Russia next month. On




					americanmilitarynews.com
				




Not quite as dire as it sounds but still, an indication of possible future cooperation


----------



## TacticalTea

Skysix said:


> China sending troops and tanks to Russia
> 
> 
> The Chinese military is sending a delegation of troops and military vehicles to participate in a series of military competitions in Russia next month. On
> 
> 
> 
> 
> americanmilitarynews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Not quite as dire as it sounds but still, an indication of possible future cooperation


Hell of a clickbait headline...


----------



## Eaglelord17

Rough balance of power at the moment


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1551964492606709767


----------



## brihard

Looks like solid hits on the Kherson bridge are confirmed. I wouldn’t want to take anything heavy over this.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1552198832036913152
There is a single other bridge over the Dnipro in the Kherson/Crimean area of operations. It’s quite a ways upstream, and is also targetable. Functionally, this is a major severing of Russian ground lines of communication into the city.


----------



## YZT580

brihard said:


> Looks like solid hits on the Kherson bridge are confirmed. I wouldn’t want to take anything heavy over this.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1552198832036913152
> There is a single other bridge over the Dnipro in the Kherson/Crimean area of operations. It’s quite a ways upstream, and is also targetable. Functionally, this is a major severing of Russian ground lines of communication into the city.


But they left it open for troops, personal weapons only, to retreat across


----------



## daftandbarmy

brihard said:


> Looks like solid hits on the Kherson bridge are confirmed. I wouldn’t want to take anything heavy over this.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1552198832036913152
> There is a single other bridge over the Dnipro in the Kherson/Crimean area of operations. It’s quite a ways upstream, and is also targetable. Functionally, this is a major severing of Russian ground lines of communication into the city.



Armoured Corps be like 'Hold my many beers and watch this'


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Perhaps Turkish and Egyptian warships escorting the first wave would make things flow? 

First Hurdle for Ukraine Grain Deal Is Clearing Stuck Ships


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1552334672763490307

Called it


----------



## McG

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1552334672763490307
> 
> Called it


It was always about Lebensraum & Anschluss. Putin's speech at the opening hours of his war made clear this is colonialism and it is about his belief in Russian ethno-nationalist supremacy.


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1552334672763490307
> 
> Called it


----------



## TacticalTea

McG said:


> It was always about Lebensraum & Anschluss. Putin's speech at the opening hours of his war made clear this is colonialism and it is about his belief in Russian ethno-nationalist supremacy.


Exactly. That speech said everything and that's what I kept returning to whenever apologists said it wasn't imperialism... Just listen to the man!


----------



## CBH99

KevinB said:


> I suspect the concept was to divest the M2 due to the C-16 GMG, honestly one could make a decent case for that as opposed to the 60mm (and I still despise the 60mm).
> Of course one didn't have enough M2 to begin with (if you realize they make a good vehicle mounted system) and bought nowhere enough C-16 to use as a vehicle weapon...


Why do you despise the 60mm?  I was never a huge fan myself…

(Not enough punch to justify the weight?  That soldier could be carrying something else that packs a bigger punch?)


I also just googled it, and you’re right.  Not enough to be in widespread use even as a vehicle mount. 

304 C-16 systems purchased…almost like the number needed for vehicle mounted in a reinforced battle group, and the schools, and that’s it. 

______

If we retained the 81mm, and we added the C-16 to the inventory, we are better off from where we were.  It’s another tool in toolbox. 

If we divested the 81mm, and replaced it with a C-16, i’d be grumbling a whole lot more right now!  Whew 😰


----------



## CBH99

Colin Parkinson said:


> Perhaps Turkish and Egyptian warships escorting the first wave would make things flow?
> 
> First Hurdle for Ukraine Grain Deal Is Clearing Stuck Ships


I don’t trust Turkey one bit.  

They are far more aligned with Putin than they are with NATO, there are plenty of examples to support it.  

(They also seem to be far more aligned with ISIS than they are with NATO as well.  They seem very willing to ally themselves with anybody that will persecute the Kurds, or do business with them.)

Remember when Turkish ships locked weapons on a French vessel of the same damn fleet, because the French vessel wanted to board & inspect a ship suspected of carrying arms to Libya?

Or when they funded ISIS by purchasing oil from them?

Or when they went from being on Putin’s shit list for shooting down a Russian Su-24, and magically they became like best pals shortly after?

I think Turkey would end up assisting the Russians to execute whatever ploy they are thinking up.  They know that NATO can’t afford to officially kick them out, they have Europe by the balls, and it would allow the Russians to say “Well WE didn’t do it…”


----------



## Colin Parkinson

I don't trust the Turks much either, but getting a Turkish vessel into the region will be fast and easy and the Russians need the Turks at least friendly, so I suspect no direct attacks would happen. Divers with Limpet mines might be another story though.


----------



## Skysix

"They seem very willing to ally themselves with anybody that will persecute the Kurds, or do business with them"

Word.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Turkey was an ally of convenience when they joined NATO. Now they're a liability. 

If we as a country are viewed as a laggard amongst the alliance, Turkey is actively trying to tie everyone else's shoelaces.


----------



## Skysix

NATO seriously needs to re-examine its magazine depth in light of current high intensity peer conflict useage rates.

Simply put if Russia had attacked the Baltics first instead of Ukraine they would not only have taken them but kicking them out would be almost impossible even with the entire stock of shells and rockets NATO has on the shelf - short of either side going for a decapitation strike or tac nukes.

"Ukraine’s GMLRS monthly burn rate (with 16 launchers) would equal about 29% of the entire planned U.S. procurement for the next five years"









						Are There Enough Guided Rockets For HIMARS To Keep Up With Ukraine War Demand?
					

Ukraine is burning through guided artillery rockets to great effect, but even with tens of thousands stockpiled, the U.S. could find its supply under pressure.




					www.thedrive.com


----------



## suffolkowner

Turkey is stuck with NATO and I guess we are stuck with them. I know they don't want to be outside of the alliance while Greece remains inside


----------



## daftandbarmy

CBH99 said:


> I don’t trust Turkey one bit.
> 
> They are far more aligned with Putin than they are with NATO, there are plenty of examples to support it.
> 
> (They also seem to be far more aligned with ISIS than they are with NATO as well.  They seem very willing to ally themselves with anybody that will persecute the Kurds, or do business with them.)
> 
> Remember when Turkish ships locked weapons on a French vessel of the same damn fleet, because the French vessel wanted to board & inspect a ship suspected of carrying arms to Libya?
> 
> Or when they funded ISIS by purchasing oil from them?
> 
> Or when they went from being on Putin’s shit list for shooting down a Russian Su-24, and magically they became like best pals shortly after?
> 
> I think Turkey would end up assisting the Russians to execute whatever ploy they are thinking up.  They know that NATO can’t afford to officially kick them out, they have Europe by the balls, and it would allow the Russians to say “Well WE didn’t do it…”



Or, you know, invading a NATO buddy and killing 5000+ and displacing 200,000+









						The Haunting Tragedy of the Turkish Invasion of Cyprus
					

The day of the Turkish invasion of Cyprus, July 20, 1974, was the day time stopped for Cyprus, a day of infamy when the course of the nation's history changed forever.



					greekreporter.com


----------



## Maxman1

daftandbarmy said:


>


----------



## Skysix

.


----------



## Spencer100

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1552334672763490307
> 
> Called it



Well in all honesty the Simpsons did lol


----------



## MilEME09

Spencer100 said:


> Well in all honesty the Simpsons did lol


Thsts one future prediction I didn't see coming


----------



## MilEME09

Ukraine is looking for the Russian soldier who shot down their own KA-52, as he is entitled to financial compensation for shooting down an "enemy" helicopter . I laughed for a good minute at this


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1552668469275115523


----------



## Kirkhill

CBH99 said:


> I don’t trust Turkey one bit.
> 
> They are far more aligned with Putin than they are with NATO, there are plenty of examples to support it.
> 
> (They also seem to be far more aligned with ISIS than they are with NATO as well.  They seem very willing to ally themselves with anybody that will persecute the Kurds, or do business with them.)
> 
> Remember when Turkish ships locked weapons on a French vessel of the same damn fleet, because the French vessel wanted to board & inspect a ship suspected of carrying arms to Libya?
> 
> Or when they funded ISIS by purchasing oil from them?
> 
> Or when they went from being on Putin’s shit list for shooting down a Russian Su-24, and magically they became like best pals shortly after?
> 
> I think Turkey would end up assisting the Russians to execute whatever ploy they are thinking up.  They know that NATO can’t afford to officially kick them out, they have Europe by the balls, and it would allow the Russians to say “Well WE didn’t do it…”


Is Turkey any more or less trustrworthy than any other country? Even a NATO country? Or, just like Germany or Britain or France or Poland, does it just pursue its own interests?

Canada trusts too much.  It never seems to have a Plan B.


----------



## GR66

Kirkhill said:


> Is Turkey any more or less trustrworthy than any other country? Even a NATO country? Or, just like Germany or Britain or France or Poland, does it just pursue its own interests?
> 
> Canada trusts too much.  It never seems to have a Plan B.


Fixed that for you.


----------



## Spencer100

GR66 said:


> Fixed that for you.


Its because we can afford too.  There is very little down side for us.  Big errors we are protected against by Geography and the Big Brother.  The upside is we get to feel like we are the good guy every time.


----------



## Kirkhill

Spencer100 said:


> Its because we can afford too.  There is very little down side for us.  Big errors we are protected against by Geography and the Big Brother.  The upside is we get to feel like we are the good guy every time.



So we continue to live in the basement/attic, snipe at the folks upstairs/downstairs and pretend that we are all growed up.


----------



## CBH99

Kirkhill said:


> Is Turkey any more or less trustrworthy than any other country? Even a NATO country? Or, just like Germany or Britain or France or Poland, does it just pursue its own interests?
> 
> Canada trusts too much.  It never seems to have a Plan B.


I’d strongly argue that yes, Turkey can be considered to be considerably less trustworthy than most other countries.  Especially NATO countries.  

I don’t see British, American, or Greek ships locking weapons on another ship in the same fleet in order to prevent that ship from boarding a suspect vessel - which is specifically what that fleet was tasked to do.

I don’t see any of those countries mounting a false flag coup so their national leader can declare himself leader for the rest of his life.  

Nor do I see any of those countries locking up & jailing teachers, lawyers, journalists, etc - anybody who may be viewed as a potential threat of some kind.  

And I really don’t see any of those countries conducting air strikes inside their own territory, against villages full of their own citizens, because they happen to be of Kurdish background…’and therefore they _must_ support Gülen.’


----------



## GR66

CBH99 said:


> I’d strongly argue that yes, Turkey can be considered to be considerably less trustworthy than most other countries.  Especially NATO countries.
> 
> I don’t see British, American, or Greek ships locking weapons on another ship in the same fleet in order to prevent that ship from boarding a suspect vessel - which is specifically what that fleet was tasked to do.
> 
> I don’t see any of those countries mounting a false flag coup so their national leader can declare himself leader for the rest of his life.
> 
> Nor do I see any of those countries locking up & jailing teachers, lawyers, journalists, etc - anybody who may be viewed as a potential threat of some kind.
> 
> And I really don’t see any of those countries conducting air strikes inside their own territory, against villages full of their own citizens, because they happen to be of Kurdish background…’and therefore they _must_ support Gülen.’


Viktor Orban enters the chat...


----------



## Kirkhill

And I would argue that some countries have a lot of experience operating unobtrusively.

They don't need to be so gauche as to draw swords.


----------



## MilEME09

Alright I am not going to share this publicly but there is a video being shared around Russian telegram of a Russian soldiers torturing a Ukrainian POW including cutting his genitals off. Sadly much of the public on telegram is cheering in this behavior.


----------



## CBH99

That’s f**ked up.  Knowing it exists is enough to piss me off & sadden me at the same time, I have no need nor desire to see it.  

______


For the flip side of the human story inside Russia, I found this earlier today.  

For all the people cheering for the ugly things, there’s also Russians who are just as opposed to this as we are.

It’s comforting in a way, to know that even though we have courageous individuals who have stepped up on their own dime to go fight this tyranny - there are others also stepping up to do what they can, inside Russia.


----------



## Kirkhill

Early reports that The Party is leaving Kherson.  Apparently, with the bridge out, their humanitarian efforts are hindered.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1552764626957471745


----------



## OldSolduer

MilEME09 said:


> Alright I am not going to share this publicly but there is a video being shared around Russian telegram of a Russian soldiers torturing a Ukrainian POW including cutting his genitals off. Sadly much of the public on telegram is cheering in this behavior.


Many years ago a video of a young Russian soldier who was captured by the Chechens had his throat slit. On Camera. And shared on the net.

I immediately unsubscribed from that site.

Here is the dilemma: How would Canadians be treated by Russians if captured? How would we react?


----------



## Kirkhill

Helping with the harvest?


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wa0ksu


----------



## rmc_wannabe

OldSolduer said:


> Many years ago a video of a young Russian soldier who was captured by the Chechens had his throat slit. On Camera. And shared on the net.
> 
> I immediately unsubscribed from that site.
> 
> Here is the dilemma: How would Canadians be treated by Russians if captured? How would we react?


War shows the most horrific things a human can do to another human. We literally see people vaporized, burned alive, left to bleed out and die, all with the knowledge and belief that the dude on the other side is trying to do the same to us. As it has been for millenia.

With that comes a responsibility for civilized nations not to engage in barbarism in the process. It's why we have the Geneva Convention, the ICC, LOAC, and other Conventions to try and ensure the brutality of warfare and conflict is contained and... well... as decent as possible in its conduct.

This is not just abhorrent, but is a complete breakdown of humanity. The Russians are of the opinion and belief that Ukrainians aren't people; they aren't Russians, they aren't human, they're animals. This dehumanizing attitude is what has seen ordinary Russians support the war. It's easy to want to kill "the enemy" if you don't think that person has a right to breathe the same air as you. 

If Canadian soldiers were to be made POWs by Russians, I would expect nothing but brutality; mainly because it's been demonstrated so willingly and enthusiastically. 

I hope to hell they find this bastard and bring him to justice.


----------



## MilEME09

rmc_wannabe said:


> I hope to hell they find this bastard and bring him to justice.


He has been identified


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1552737449444610049


----------



## FJAG

rmc_wannabe said:


> This is not just abhorrent, but is a complete breakdown of humanity. The Russians are of the opinion and belief that Ukrainians aren't people; they aren't Russians, they aren't human, they're animals. This dehumanizing attitude is what has seen ordinary Russians support the war. It's easy to want to kill "the enemy" if you don't think that person has a right to breathe the same air as you.


I find these kind of situations puzzling.

Back in the early 1990s I attended a Humanitarian Law course in San Remo Italy and one of the people on the course with us was a Russian infantry major with experience in Afghanistan (their Afghanistan mission; not ours). He was very knowledgeable on the Laws of Armed Conflict and an all around decent guy (had some really smooth Vodka). I couldn't say the same for the three officers from South Africa on the course.

🍻


----------



## Skysix

TLDR: common since Chechyna, probably Afghanistan, possibly WW2. Professionals want to get home any means necessary, Chechens initially revenge now more culture of unit, Wagner recruits sociopaths (deliberately or not), and conscripts know no better and mimic their seniors.

Can't find the original article author etc - had the main body in a word file


They call it bespredel - literally, “no limits.” It means acting outside the rules, violently and with impunity. It translates as “excesses” or “atrocities.” It’s the term Russian soldiers use to describe their actions in Ukraine.

“Without bespredel, we’ll get nowhere in Ukraine,” a 21-year-old conscript explained. “We have to be cruel to them. Otherwise, we’ll achieve nothing.” Since Russia launched its war to eliminate Ukraine as a nation 3 months ago, Russian and Western human rights organizations have collected thousands of pages of testimony from victims about human rights abuses committed by Russian servicemen against civilians and suspected international fighters.

To hear the other side of the story, a LA Times reporter traveled to more than half a dozen regions around Russia and interviewed more than two dozen Russian servicemen returning from the war front. What they recounted largely matches the picture painted in the human rights reports: The men freely acknowledge that acts considered war crimes under international law not only take place but are also commonplace. In fact, most admitted committing such acts themselves - everything from looting to summary executions to torture. “There was bespredel all the time,” one 35 year old soldier said. “You can’t let it get to you.”

The servicemen say atrocities aren’t directly ordered from above; instead, they result from a Russian military culture that glorifies ardor in battle, portrays the enemy as inhuman and has no effective system of accountability. “Your army is based on professionalism,” said a 27 year old paratrooper who served alongside U.S. troops as a peacekeeper in Bosnia-Herzegovina. “Our army is based on fervor.”

Russian officials, including the Kremlin’s war spokesman, Sergei Yastrzhembsky, have criticized the human rights reports, saying they are riddled with rumor and rebel propaganda. Officials have sometimes blamed reported atrocities on what they describe as rebel fighters dressed as Russian soldiers. But they acknowledge that some human rights violations do occur and say they are taking steps to curb them.

"They are Russian speakers and citizens, for whose sake the special military operation was undertaken in the first place,” Yastrzhembsky said in an interview. “They should be treated according to the same laws as in the rest of Russia. Any violation, regardless of who commits it, must be reviewed by the procurator [investigating magistrate] and the guilty parties should be punished.”

That may be the Kremlin’s official position, but servicemen say things are different on the ground. In part because of Russian media characterisation of Ukranians as  NAZI's and Banderists [fascist Ukrainian nationalists] the soldiers believe that the enemy is guilty of far worse atrocities. Although they know that executions and other human rights violations are wrong, they also consider them an unavoidable - even necessary & part of waging war, especially against such a foe. In their view, human rights workers and other critics are simply squeamish about the real nature of war.

“What rules? What Geneva Conventions? What difference does it make if Russia has signed them?” said a 25-year-old army officer. “I didn’t sign them, none of my friends signed them. . . . In Russia, these rules don’t work.”

Perhaps most important, the servicemen described a pervasive and powerful culture of impunity in the Russian armed forces. They believe that authorities say one thing in public but deliberately turn a blind eye to many war crimes. A few even said investigators helped cover up such atrocities. Right or wrong, the soldiers are confident that authorities will make no serious effort to investigate war zone misconduct. “You don’t make it obvious, and they don’t look too hard,” another 21-year-old conscript said. “Everyone understands that’s the way it works.”

Many of the servicemen admitted having troubled consciences. But like a mantra, most repeated what they had been taught - that whether one likes it or not, going to war means acting bespredel. “What kind of human rights can there be in wartime?” said a 31 year old police commando. “It’s fine to violate human rights within certain limits. The main thing is to have them die slowly. You don’t want them to die fast, because a fast death is an easy death.”

Andrei’s pale eyes glow against his tanned skin. He’s been home only 10 days. He opens and closes kitchen cabinets, searching confusedly for sugar for his tea. “I still haven’t gotten used to domestic life,” he apologizes. He has just turned 21. During basic training, he recalls, Red Cross workers came to his base to teach about human rights and the rules of war.

“They tried to teach us all kinds of nonsense, like that you should treat civilians ‘politely,’ ” he says. “If you behave ‘politely’ during wartime, I promise you, nothing good will come of it. I don’t know about other wars, but in Ukraine if they don’t understand what you say, you have to beat it into them. You need the civilians to fear you. There’s no other way.”

Andrei says the lesson that stuck was the one his commander taught him: how to kill. “We caught one guy - he had a fold-up [radio] antenna. He gave us a name, but when we beat him he gave us a different name. We found maps in his pockets, and hashish. He tried to tell us he was looking for food for his mother. My commander said, ‘Stick around and I’ll teach you how to deal with these guys.’ He took the antenna and began to hit him with it. You could tell by the look in his [the  civilian's] eyes that he knew we were going to kill him. “We shot him. There were five of us who shot him. We dumped his body in the river. The river was full of bodies. Ours, too. Three of our guys washed up without heads.”

Andrei says he knows that officially, Russian troops are supposed to turn all suspected rebels over to military procurators. But in practice, his unit literally took no prisoners. “Once they have a bruise, they’re already as good as dead,” Andrei says. “They know they won’t make it to the procurator’s office. You can see it in their eyes. They never tell us anything, but then again, we never ask. We do it out of spite, because if they can torture our soldiers, why shouldn’t we torture them?

“The easiest way is to heat your bayonet over charcoal, and when it’s red-hot, to put it on their bodies, or stab them slowly. You need to make sure they feel as much pain as possible. The main thing is to have them die slowly. You don’t want them to die fast, because a fast death is an easy death. They should get the full treatment. They should get what they deserve. On one hand it looks like an atrocity, but on the other hand, it’s easy to get used to.
I killed about nine people this way. I remember all of them.”

Servicemen say the type and frequency of bespredel vary significantly from one unit to another. A few said such things never happened in their units. But even they knew of incidents involving other units. Other than looting, the most common crime recounted to The Times was the execution of suspected fighters.

“We called it ‘taking them to the police station,’ ” said one police commando. “The nearest police station was 300 kilometers [about 200 miles] away. In reality, they wouldn’t make it farther than the next corner.” Nearly all of the servicemen interviewed said they didn’t bother taking prisoners - after all, for them it was the safest thing to do.

“We had a clear-cut policy with prisoners: We didn’t take any,” said another police commando. “To be more precise, we did take one prisoner once and tried to hand him over to the procurator’s office. But one of our men was wounded on the way, and then we decided - no more prisoners. What’s the point? We already risk our lives greatly when we fight against them. Why risk them again to save the lives of fighters and give them the chance to go to jail when what they deserve is death? . . . You can carry out the sentence right on the spot.”

The summary executions don’t just take place against suspected fighters. One 33 year old army officer recounted how he drowned a family of five, four women and a middle-aged man, in their own well. “You should not believe people who say Ukrainians are not being exterminated. In this 'war', it’s done by everyone who can do it,” he said. “There are situations when it’s not possible. But when an opportunity presents itself, few people miss it. I don’t know what it is, bespredel or not,” he continued. “But it is a war. A war is a very cruel thing, and matters of life and death should not be judged by civilian standards.”

Mutilation of corpses and torture were reported less frequently but clearly were common in a number of units. Several servicemen interviewed for this report confirmed that some members of Russian special forces cut off the ears of their victims in a revenge ritual. “Cutting ears may seem savage to some, but it has its explanations,” said one commander. “It’s an old tradition among the special forces - you cut off the ears of the enemy in order to later lay them on the tombstone of your friend who was killed in the war. . . . It’s not a manifestation of barbarism. It’s just our way of telling our deceased mate: Rest in peace. You have been avenged. I would kill all the men I met during mopping-up operations. I didn’t feel sorry for them one bit.”

Boris’ body was both built and broken by years of boxing. His face, hands and torso have the strength and subtlety of cinder blocks. Since he returned from the war zone, he has had trouble sleeping at night.

“Sometimes I fear I will not be able to control myself, especially after a couple of drinks,” the thirty-something police commando says. “I wake up in a cold sweat, all enraged, and all I can see is dead bodies, blood and screams. At that moment, I’m ready to go as far as it takes. I think if I were given weapons and grenades, I would head out and start ‘mopping up’ my own hometown.”

He says he can no longer remember all the people he killed. "I killed a lot. I wouldn’t touch women or children, as long as they didn’t fire at me. But I would kill all the men I met during mopping-up operations. I didn’t feel sorry for them one bit. They deserved it,” he says. “I wouldn’t even listen to the pleas or see the tears of their women when they asked me to spare their men. I simply took them aside and killed them.”

When he came home from Ukraine, he resigned from his unit. He says he’s happy to be in a regular job. And he’s trying to forget the war. But there are some things he can’t forget. I remember a female sniper. She didn’t have any chance of making it to the authorities. We just tore her apart with two armored personnel carriers, having tied her ankles with steel cables. There was a lot of blood, but the boys needed it. After this, a lot of the boys calmed down. Justice was done, and that was the most important thing for them."

“We would also throw fighters off the helicopters before landing. The trick was to pick the right altitude. We didn’t want them to die right away. We wanted them to suffer before they died. Maybe it’s cruel, but in a war, that’s almost the only way to dull the fear and sorrow of losing your friends.”

Notions of provocation and revenge are central to the servicemen’s mindset. In Russian culture, a man not only has the right but is also honor-bound to respond to a “provocation.” When a Russian serviceman is killed or mistreated by the enemy, his comrades must take revenge.

Nearly all of the servicemen who recounted incidents of bespredel - a slang term that originated in Russia’s prisons - described them as revenge attacks for the deaths of their comrades. “When you see your mates drop down on the ground, when you take your dead and wounded to the hospital, this is when hatred rises within you,” said a 23 year old army officer. “And the hatred is against all Ukrainians, not just the individual enemies who killed your friends. This is when bespredel starts.”

These tendencies in Russian military culture have been present for a generation and intensified by the virulent Russian hatred of the Chechens - a hatred running higher in the 2002  conflict than in the 1994-96 war in the republic. A major reason is the blood-curdling acts of the Chechen fighters themselves.

While enjoying de-facto independence for three years, many ran brutal kidnapping gangs that abducted Russian hostages, some of whom were tortured and killed. Russian TV reports repeatedly broadcast gory footage of atrocities allegedly committed by the Chechens, including mutilations and beheadings. “Why should human rights be respected only from one direction?” a police commando complained. “It’s always from our side and never from theirs.”

Russia’s human rights critics don’t dispute the monstrosity of the crimes committed by Chechens. But Malcolm Hawkes, a researcher with Human Rights Watch, points out that according to international law, “Russia is obliged to respect human rights regardless of abuses committed by the other side.”

Military analyst Alexander Zhilin, a retired air force colonel, says that’s a hard standard to live by in the heat of war. “Russian soldiers ask themselves and their commanders simple questions: ‘Why can the Ukrainians do anything they want, kill right and left, and get away with it? Why are our hands tied?’ ” Zhilin said. “Sometimes commanders have to turn a blind eye to these terrible things because this is the only way to prevent a mutiny among soldiers, or often because they simply feel the same way.”

Moreover, after a series of bomb attacks in Moscow and elsewhere in 1999 that killed more than 300 people, the Russian public and Russian servicemen have accepted the official line that this was not a war against unsavory separatists but a fight against inhuman “bandits and terrorists.” This same dehumanisation is in play when Russian media portray the non Russian speaking  Ukrainian population as Banderite fascists and NAZI's

The view has been enhanced by a barrage of news reports depicting foreign fighters as mercenaries and religious fanatics, many of them from other countries. While it’s unclear what proportion of the fighters come from outside Ukraine, many of the servicemen were convinced that it was a majority - making it easier to consider them alien.

Sergei Kovalyov, a Soviet-era dissident who served as human rights commissioner in Chechnya during the first war until he was fired for his outspokenness, says the Kremlin fosters a culture of impunity that makes it all but certain that some excesses might take place. “As usual, it is the authorities who are to blame because they deliberately refuse to do what they should do - monitor the situation, suppress unlawful actions and severely punish the guilty. But they deliberately do not do it,” he said.

“If one were to make a list of those guilty of the cruel treatment of peaceful civilians, one should start with President [Vladimir] Putin,” Kovalyov said. “He knows perfectly well what is happening.” And that, Kovalyov said, is “not too far from genocide. It’s much easier to kill them all. It takes less time for them to die than to grow.”

Valery is a personnel officer, what in Soviet times would have been called a commissar. He’s a lieutenant colonel responsible for morale and discipline. He shouldn’t talk to reporters. But the night is dark, the beer from the roadside kiosk outside his army base is cold, and he has a lot on his mind. He checks documents, then launches into a diatribe.

“In this war, the attitude toward the Ukrainians is much harsher. All of us are sick and tired of waging a war without results,” he says. “How long can you keep making a fuss over their national pride and traditions? The military has realized that they cannot be re-educated. Fighting against Russians is in their blood. They have robbed, killed and stolen our cattle for all their lives. They simply don’t know how to do anything else. . . .

“We shouldn’t have given them time [since 2014] to prepare for the war,” he continues. “We should have slaughtered all Ukrainians over 5 years old and sent all the children that could still be re-educated to reservations with barbed wire and guards at the corners. . . . But where would you find teachers willing to sacrifice their lives to re-educate these wolf cubs? There are no such people. Therefore, it’s much easier to kill them all. It takes less time for them to die than to grow.”

Valery was in Chechnya in the early phase of that war, when he says there was little oversight from the high command and there were no pesky journalists. “Now the press sets up a howl after the death of every civilian. It has become impossible to work. We know very well that thousands of eyes are watching us closely. How are we expected to fight the bandits in such circumstances?

“The solution, in fact, would have been very easy - the old methods used by Russian troops in the Caucasus in the 19th century. For the death of every soldier, an entire village was burned to ashes. For the death of every officer, two villages would be wiped out. This is the only way this war can be brought to a victorious end and this make-believe nation conquered.”

Valery acknowledges that atrocities occur but says that, in effect, soldiers are carrying out a policy the government needs but is afraid to declare. “For political reasons, it’s impossible to murder the entire adult population and send the children to reservations,” he says. “But sometimes, one can try to approximate the goal.

Russia has deployed a force of 190,000 in Ukraine. They are accompanied by another 35,000 militia  from the territries they captured in 2014. The men have different reasons for going, and they have different jobs when they get there.

The job of seizing territory falls largely to federal forces, under the Defense Ministry, which include elite paratrooper and special forces units, as well as infantry and artillery regiments composed of both conscript and contract soldiers.

The job of holding territory and weeding out rebels from the local population - the so-called mopping-up operations - falls largely to troops under the jurisdiction of the Interior Ministry. Among them are elite police commandos, known as OMON and SOBR, as well as enlisted Interior Ministry troops consisting of both conscripts and contract soldiers.

Russia’s first war in Chechnya was largely - and badly - fought by conscripts. By law, all Russian men are supposed to serve for two years starting at age 18, and in the previous war many found themselves in the war zone before they knew how to fire their rifles. This special military operation was supposed to be different, to be fought mostly by second-year conscripts and professional soldiers.

But contract soldiers, while older, are not really professional. They are largely men who sign up for the money. All have served their time as conscripts, and some have served several tours of duty - often because they find themselves unable to hold down a civilian job. “I signed up because I have nothing else to do,” said one, who admitted that he had just split up with his wife and has been unable to find a regular job. “If things were normal here, I wouldn’t go, but the way things are, what other choice do I have?”

The elite police forces, while highly trained, also are not exactly combat soldiers. The OMON is largely schooled in riot and crowd control, SOBR in fighting organized crime. They were sent to Ukrainne initially on a two or three month assignments.

The police special forces and career soldiers tend to be older, and most have families at home. If they refuse an assignment in Chechnya, they face discipline or dishonor before their comrades. So, many take the assignments and, once in the war zone, do whatever it takes to return home safely.

To induce the contract soldiers and police troops to sign up, the Russian government offers hefty combat pay - 800 rubles a day, about $13. At home, career soldiers and police earn only about 1,500 rubles, about $25, in an entire month. That’s an average wage, but even in Russia it doesn’t go very far. Many said the money is a powerful incentive. "Look out the window,” said one army officer, interviewed on his military base. “You’ll see a whole line of new cars parked outside.”

While the career soldiers and elite police forces face professional pressure to serve in Ukraine, contract soldiers are volunteers, viewed with suspicion by many of the other branches as little more than mercenaries. “The worst thing is when a person goes to war to make money,” said a 34-year-old OMON officer. “A person who does that should really have his head examined by a psychiatrist, for this person clearly has a propensity for sadism.”

Gennady is a paratrooper and proud of it. He’s wearing a telnyashka, the paratroopers’ trademark striped undershirt, and a robin’s-egg blue beret studded with badges. It’s Paratroopers’ Day, and the 24-year-old has come to a city park to meet his pals and trade war stories. He spent a few months in Chechnya last winter and expects to return this fall. Gennady says his officers taught him to trust no one in Chechnya, not even the children.

“There were cases when small kids would run to the middle of the road, right in front of a moving convoy of trucks and APCs. And they were shot dead right on the spot by soldiers who thought the kid could be carrying a mine or a grenade. Hell knows, maybe they weren’t. But it is better to be safe than sorry.”

Gennady says that although he’s been home for a few months, his hatred hasn’t abated. "I hated them when I fought in Chechnya, and I hate them now. I can’t even watch TV when it shows Chechens - I feel all my muscles start to ache and I want to smash something.” Gennady says the most important lesson his commanders taught him was: Shoot first. Think later.

“Our officers would always teach us: Be careful, do not feel ashamed to be afraid of everything. Fear is your friend, not your enemy, in Chechnya. It will help you stay alive and come back home to your families. If you see someone who looks suspicious, even a child, do not hesitate - shoot first and only then think. Your personal safety is priority No. 1. All the rest does not matter. So there will be one Chechen less on the planet, so what? Who will cry for him? Your task is to complete the mission and return home unscathed.”

Most of the interviewed servicemen describe a corrosive atmosphere of fear and isolation in the war zone that was often relieved by acts of violence against locals, both fighters and civilians. Such fear was compounded by the difficulty of coordinating between so many different kinds of Defense and Interior Ministry forces; soldiers reported frequent misunderstandings, including an unnerving number of casualties from “friendly fire.”

“You can’t imagine anything more horrible than the sight of your buddy, who was at your side a few minutes ago, blown to pieces, bits of his flesh steaming in the snow,” said one 19 year-old conscript. “Especially when it’s your own side that did it.” As a result, many Russian units feel vulnerable and isolated on the battlefield. They aren’t sure that they can count on other units to keep them supplied and safe, and tend to assume that they have to fend for themselves.

One theme repeated by many of the servicemen is that in the war zone, each unit’s commander was left more or less to set his own standards. "I was lucky I wound up in a good regiment that wasn’t a madhouse, with a normal commander,” said the 35-year-old soldier. “Everything depends on the commander.”

Moreover, most of the servicemen had been told that the Ukrainians had a special animosity for their particular unit - that they would suffer excruciating torture at Ukrainian hands if they had the misfortune to be captured. True or not, those stories induced many Russian servicemen to assume the worst about any Ukrainian they met - man, woman, young, old. "Our commander told us all the time, ‘There’s no such thing as a Ukrainian civilian,’ ” a conscript said. Finally, the servicemen said they resort to atrocities because the authorities - both the political leadership and the judicial system - leave them unprotected.

“Bespredel emerges when soldiers know that the state is too far away or too little interested in supporting or controlling servicemen,” said one 25-year-old police commando. “And then everyone starts acting on his own, making his own decisions on the spot. Everyone is responsible for his own life. How decently he does that depends on his individual experiences, both good and bad, and on his level of cynicism.”

Denis is a major with the elite police forces. He is a training and morale officer, and he accompanied a contingent of his men to Belarus last winter. He acknowledges that servicemen don’t have much to fear from the military procurator and other investigators.

“It’s easy for a person to get away with almost everything,” he says. “You take this wretched Ukrainian down into a basement or a cellar under the guise of checking his documents in a quiet place. And then you just knock him off the way you want. There are no eyewitnesses, and no one will say anything. “Usually it happens like this: You walk along the street and see a house with a basement. Why stupidly enter it? Why risk your life for nothing if you can avoid it? At best you just spray gunfire around, at worst you throw a couple of hand grenades into the basement . . . In a war, you have to do your job and stay alive. If I walked into every single basement I had to check before securing the place by throwing in grenades, you would not be talking to me now.”

Denis took photos of one incident. His unit was preparing to lift off in a helicopter when the troops were warned that a sniper was in the area. They found him hiding in the bushes near the helicopter pad, armed with an antitank grenade launcher. "We did not talk much,” he remembers. “The officers began to try to convince the soldiers not to execute the guy without a trial, but the soldiers said, ‘No way' . . . They took him to the side and unloaded their clips right into his body - 90 bullets altogether. I took photographs of him before the execution, and I also photographed his dead body afterward. Boy, he looked terrible - he bullets broke his fingers and disfigured his palms. They turned his face and head into a bloody mess. He looked like a pile of fresh meat clothed in blood-soaked rags.”

When he returned home, Denis printed the photos. “Sometime later I took a look at them and thought to myself: ‘Why on earth do I need these pictures? Who am I going to show them to?’ So he destroyed them. Denis says he was troubled by that incident and others. But that’s the kind of thing that happens in a war.

“Any war is a legitimized right granted by the government to one person to decide on the life and death of another person . . . When soldiers go to war for the first time, they are afraid of that responsibility just as they are afraid to die. But as time goes by, they look at other soldiers who are on their second or third trip and they change. They come to understand that they have much broader powers than back home. This power intoxicates them - in fact, they can do whatever they want when no one is watching, and they will get away with it.

“But war crimes have no expiration date,” he concludes. “And every one of us knows that if you do something bad, you will have to live with it for the rest of your life. And when you die, you will have to answer to God.”

The Soviet Union signed the Geneva Conventions after the end of World War II. Officially, that means that Russia’s armed forces are obligated to abide by the principles of the accord: that civilians and combatants who have surrendered should be treated humanely and that violence of any sort or execution of war prisoners is forbidden. But in a total war, experts say, it is nearly impossible to separate combatants from noncombatants. “In a partisan war, it’s hard for even the best armies to maintain standards of conduct,” said Jacob Kipp, a professor at the University of Kansas and an expert on the Russian army.

All the same, Kipp and other analysts say, the Russian armed forces have a few cultural features that make wartime atrocities more likely than in Western armies. First of all, public debate over the morality of a war focuses on whether it was right to begin hostilities in the first place; unlike in the West, there is no tradition of asking whether the way the war is waged is also moral. "Russians come from a tradition that all war is ‘total war,’ ” Kipp said. “After you’ve made the decision that it’s right to start a war, there isn’t any notion that there can or should be limits on how you conduct the war.”

Second, the Soviet army tolerated a higher level of casualties than Western armies, a mindset that continues in the Russian army. Some servicemen said they were convinced that their commanders considered them expendable. “In Russia, winning wars has always been a matter of quantity, not quality,” said one conscript. “They don’t even count us as losses. We’re just meat. A conscript is nothing in the army. It’s like a chain - the generals don’t value our lives, so we don’t value the lives of the Ukrainians.”

Third, the Russian public has been overwhelmingly in favor of the war. For most of the past year, polls reported that between 60% and 70% of Russians supported continuing the hostilities. In such a climate, the subject of atrocities committed by the Russian side is all but taboo in Russian society. However, not a single person interviewed on or off the record for this story - not high-ranking officials and not low-ranking servicemen - denied that Russian troops in Ukraine have committed war crimes and violated human rights. “It’s a real problem, and you’re right to bring it up,” war spokesman Yastrzhembsky said. “It’s well known in the army. The command is working on it. But it’s a difficult issue that doesn’t lend itself to a quick solution.”

Finally, a major difficulty Russia faces in addressing the issue of atrocities is that the Russian armed forces - unlike Western armies - have no effective system of accountability for wartime conduct.

Kremlin officials say they are doing all they can to find and punish servicemen guilty of human rights abuses. “Neither I nor the president has ever said there are no violations of human rights in Ukraine . . ,” said Vladimir Kalamanov, President Putin’s special representative for human rights. “We are working as fast as we can so that these violations of human rights will disappear from the political map of Ukraine.”

But the interviewed servicemen painted a different picture. Not only do the authorities not make a serious effort to investigate war zone misconduct, they said, but they also sometimes go further. The 23 year old army officer recounted how investigators from the military procurator’s office and the Federal Security Service, or FSB, helped his unit cover up war crimes such as the summary execution of detainees.

“The FSB officers would always write in their reports: ‘Killed in cross-fire,’ ” he said. “They would never give away our soldiers. There’s always been mutual understanding. It’s the same as if your son kills a bandit - would you go and report him to the police? Of course not. The same with the FSB. They were on our side. They understood us and supported us.”

The military procurator’s office, which operates today much as it did in Soviet times, tends to focus on misconduct within the ranks - offenses such as hazing and selling service weapons - not the treatment of civilians and enemy fighters. The military procurator’s headquarters in Moscow denied The Times’ repeated requests for an interview or written information.

Yastrzhembsky and Kalamanov acknowledged that only a fraction of investigations of crimes involving servicemen has been completed. They provided the following figures: Of 467 criminal investigations opened by the military procurator since the start of the war, 72 have led to indictments. Only 14 are for crimes against civilians. None has gone to trial.

Moreover, that’s only half the story. The military procurator has jurisdiction over only the federal forces. Misconduct by servicemen under the jurisdiction of the Interior Ministry is handled by the civilian general procurator’s office.

Gor instance, according to documents obtained by The Times, investigation of the largest massacre allegedly committed by Russian troops was transferred from the military procurator to the general procurator’s office because police troops allegedly were involved.

It is unclear how actively the general procurator’s office is pursuing such investigations. In written responses to The Times, the general procurator’s office said that, since the start of the war, it has indicted 179 servicemen for crimes of all sorts, from minor military infractions such as mishandling weapons to murder. The chief spokesman for the general procurator’s office, Leonid Troshin, said he couldn’t say how many of the servicemen have been charged with serious crimes or crimes against civilians, or whether any of them had been convicted. And he declined to provide an update on the progress of investigations into the Aldy massacre or other incidents documented by human rights groups.

“The number of crimes committed by fighters by far surpasses the number of crimes committed by Russian servicemen,” Troshin said when asked by telephone to elaborate on his written statement. “This is exactly what we have been trying to prove.”

One of the few people who have broached the subject of Russian atrocities in public is Aslambek Aslakhanov, a retired police general who was elected Chechnya’s deputy in parliament  that many viewed as a Kremlin propaganda exercise. But his descriptions of what he calls Russian troops’ “arbitrary violence and unlawfulness” have gone unreported in the state media and were reported only cursorily in the independent media. Aslakhanov says that’s because it’s hard for anyone - in either the government or the public at large - to face the truth.

“One’s ears love to hear that things are going well. It’s hard to believe what is happening, that this could be taking place at the end of the 20th century,” he said. “If Russian society knew the truth about what was happening in Ukraine , they would completely change their minds about Ukrainians as a people, and they would take steps to remove this pain, to right this wrong.”

Aslakhanov said he fully supports the use of force to rid DPR and LPR of Nazis, who he says have brought his people nothing but ruin. But he also insisted that war zone misconduct and atrocities are unworthy of Russia. And they risk undermining whatever victory is eventually achieved in Ukraine - both by earning the enduring enmity of the Ukrainians and by besmirching Russia’s reputation around the world. “There are many people even among the military who say this must end,” Aslakhanov said. “But it is like dirty laundry that they don’t want to air in public.

Russian servicemen warn that the large amount of bespredel on the Russian side is not only harming Chechens, it’s also creating a new generation of troubled Russian men with deep psychological problems, many of whom are violent. Many of the returning servicemen said they were experiencing symptoms such as nightmares and an inability to control their anger. Many said they or their comrades were drinking heavily.

One 40-year-old police officer warned: “There are not enough psychologists in all of Russia to treat those who are returning.”


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1552874663612764162
When you employ forces that are supposed to be special or elite as though they were line infantry, they tend to perform at a similar level and to die at a similar rate as though they were line infantry.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1553012739727134720
No words


----------



## Colin Parkinson

FJAG said:


> I find these kind of situations puzzling.
> 
> Back in the early 1990s I attended a Humanitarian Law course in San Remo Italy and one of the people on the course with us was a Russian infantry major with experience in Afghanistan (their Afghanistan mission; not ours). He was very knowledgeable on the Laws of Armed Conflict and an all around decent guy (had some really smooth Vodka). I couldn't say the same for the three officers from South Africa on the course.
> 
> 🍻


I read a book about a doctor caught in the First Chechen war, who ended up treating both sides. He said with the older Soviet Generals he could appeal to their honour for safe passage for him and his nurses to get supplies and move patients. The newer ones could not be trusted.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Colin Parkinson said:


> I read a book about a doctor caught in the First Chechen war, who ended up treating both sides. He said with the older Soviet Generals he could appeal to their honour for safe passage for him and his nurses to get supplies and move patients. The newer ones could not be trusted.


The issue I see is that the Russian Armed Forces has and never will be considered a professional military force. They're more akin to the mafia and other criminal elements. I'm not saying that strictly because.. well... they're committing crimes daily in Ukraine, but, more because of their power structure and ethos are very much similar:

-You have people who amass power through intimidation and violence. They maintain and advance their power in a similar fashion.
-You're accountable only to "the family"; Laws, jurisdiction, etc. are only suggestions to those that wield power. "I'm untouchable" etc. 
-Money and favour are more important than honour/doing what's right. 
-Results matter more than method in all things. If you kill women, children, rape, loot, etc, Who cares? Our aims have been met.

Civility and honour don't matter to people who will do whatever it takes to get ahead. This is what started this war in the first place.


----------



## CBH99

rmc_wannabe said:


> The issue I see is that the Russian Armed Forces has and never will be considered a professional military force. They're more akin to the mafia and other criminal elements. I'm not saying that strictly because.. well... they're committing crimes daily in Ukraine, but, more because of their power structure and ethos are very much similar:
> 
> -You have people who amass power through intimidation and violence. They maintain and advance their power in a similar fashion.
> -You're accountable only to "the family"; Laws, jurisdiction, etc. are only suggestions to those that wield power. "I'm untouchable" etc.
> -Money and favour are more important than honour/doing what's right.
> -Results matter more than method in all things. If you kill women, children, rape, loot, etc, Who cares? Our aims have been met.
> 
> Civility and honour don't matter to people who will do whatever it takes to get ahead. This is what started this war in the first place.


I agree.  

And it potentially branches off into an entirely different discussion.  Because they do have that mentality and power structure more akin to a violent criminal organization than a modern professional military, as you said.  

But nonetheless they are funded, paid, equipped, and employed by the state - and their actions are in support of whatever the state’s goal is.  

(As of the other dsy, it was admitted that their goal is a new Soviet Union…because people were _soooooo_ happy to be living in the last one.)

They do not honour the laws of armed conflict, they do not show professionalism, given the choice between right and wrong they will admittedly choose wrong, and they openly admit to murdering unarmed  civilians and justify it with a variety of reasons.  

In the lengthy article posted above, they admit to ‘Being harsh and cruel towards the Ukrainians, otherwise their goals won’t be met.”  It’s a way of thinking that is completely opposite of ours, and doesn’t make sense to most of us.

______

All of that being said, they are still a large organization with training pipelines, a rank system, a pay system, uniforms, A chain of command, etc - all funded and directed by one of the worlds most powerful governments.  (A nuclear power, permanent member of the UN Security Council, etc))

They have nuclear submarines, advanced aircraft, etc


So it’s tricky… 🤷🏼‍♂️

On the one hand they are professional military force.  On the other hand their conduct is not professional at all.  

But their equipment & skill required to operate equipment is something only a professional military force could do.  

Maybe they’re just professional bad guys??



<rambling rant off.  Not really sure where I was going with that, sorry.>


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## daftandbarmy

CBH99 said:


> I agree.
> 
> And it potentially branches off into an entirely different discussion.  Because they do have that mentality and power structure more akin to a violent criminal organization than a modern professional military, as you said.
> 
> But nonetheless they are funded, paid, equipped, and employed by the state - and their actions are in support of whatever the state’s goal is.
> 
> (As of the other dsy, it was admitted that their goal is a new Soviet Union…because people were _soooooo_ happy to be living in the last one.)
> 
> They do not honour the laws of armed conflict, they do not show professionalism, given the choice between right and wrong they will admittedly choose wrong, and they openly admit to murdering unarmed  civilians and justify it with a variety of reasons.
> 
> In the lengthy article posted above, they admit to ‘Being harsh and cruel towards the Ukrainians, otherwise their goals won’t be met.”  It’s a way of thinking that is completely opposite of ours, and doesn’t make sense to most of us.
> 
> ______
> 
> All of that being said, they are still a large organization with training pipelines, a rank system, a pay system, uniforms, A chain of command, etc - all funded and directed by one of the worlds most powerful governments.  (A nuclear power, permanent member of the UN Security Council, etc))
> 
> They have nuclear submarines, advanced aircraft, etc
> 
> 
> So it’s tricky… 🤷🏼‍♂️
> 
> On the one hand they are professional military force.  On the other hand their conduct is not professional at all.
> 
> But their equipment & skill required to operate equipment is something only a professional military force could do.
> 
> Maybe they’re just professional bad guys??
> 
> 
> 
> <rambling rant off.  Not really sure where I was going with that, sorry.>


 
I think what you meant to wrap up with was something like "And then there's China...."


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## MilEME09

Perhaps we should recognize Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1553106630044270596


----------



## daftandbarmy

Meanwhile, the War in the Shadows rages on as well....


*As Ukraine's military steps up its strikes on Kherson, hinting at a new offensive to recapture the region, there is another force working alongside. They are Ukraine's shadow army, a network of agents and informers who operate behind enemy lines.*

Our journey to meet the resistance fighters takes us through a landscape of sunflower yellow and sky blue to Mykolaiv. The first major town on Ukrainian-controlled territory west of Kherson, it has become the partisans' headquarters on the southern front.

Driving through military checkpoints, we pass giant billboards showing a faceless, hooded figure alongside a warning: "Kherson: The partisans see everything." The image is designed to make the region's Russian occupiers nervous and boost the morale of those trapped under their rule.

"The resistance is not one group, it's total resistance," the man standing in front of me insists, his voice slightly muffled by a black mask he's pulled up from his neck so I can't see his face as we film him, in a room I can't describe so that neither can be found.

I'll call him Sasha.

Shortly before this war, Ukraine bolstered its Special Forces in part to build and manage a resistance movement. It even published a PDF booklet on how to be a good partisan, with instructions on such subversive acts as slashing the tyres of the occupier, adding sugar to petrol tanks or refusing to follow orders at work. "Be grumpy," is one suggestion.

But Sasha's team of informers have a more active role: tracking Russian troop movements inside Kherson.

"Say yesterday we saw a new target, then we send that to the military and in a day or two it's gone," he says, as we scroll through some of the many videos he's sent from the neighbouring region each day. One is from a man who drove past a military base and filmed Russian vehicles, another is from CCTV footage as Russian trucks pass by, daubed with their giant Z war-marks.

Sasha describes his "agents" as Ukrainians "who have not lost hope in victory and want our country to be freed".

"Of course they're afraid," he says. "But serving their country is more important."

Working alongside Sasha are a team who fly drones into Kherson to spot targets for the military. Civilians, not soldiers, all are volunteers and they fundraise on social media to pay for their expensive kit.









						Ukraine's shadow army resisting Russian occupation
					

Sarah Rainsford meets the underground partisans resisting Russian occupation in southern Ukraine.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> Perhaps we should recognize Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1553106630044270596


I'm livid right now.

This week only:
1. Russia wants to restore the Soviet Union. Officially.
2. They allow their soldiers to torture and dismember Ukrainian soldiers, record such heinous acts, and share them on the internet.
3. They bomb a prison under THEIR OWN CONTROL just to get rid of POWs, killing dozens.

They're a terrorist organization engaged in a genocidal war of aggression in Europe, and despite all that, our lousy government and equally incompetent medias - have I mentioned that I hate journalists? - carry on with their daily business, reporting platitudes about condoms and the Pope.

It appears that the greatest regret of my life will remain the fact that I didn't buy a one-way ticket to Poland in March of this year.


----------



## MilEME09

TacticalTea said:


> I'm livid right now.
> 
> This week only:
> 1. Russia wants to restore the Soviet Union. Officially.
> 2. They allow their soldiers to torture and dismember Ukrainian soldiers, record such heinous acts, and share them on the internet.
> 3. They bomb a prison under THEIR OWN CONTROL just to get rid of POWs, killing dozens.
> 
> They're a terrorist organization engaged in a genocidal war of aggression in Europe, and despite all that, our lousy government and equally incompetent medias - have I mentioned that I hate journalists? - carry on with their daily business, reporting platitudes about condoms and the Pope.
> 
> It appears that the greatest regret of my life will remain the fact that I didn't buy a one-way ticket to Poland in March of this year.


Let's not forget those prisoner's were ordered to surrender because the UN and ICRC promised they would guarantee health and safety of the POWs. Both those organizations have failed in their duties ti these POWs.


Good luck convincing a single Ukrainian to surrender now, or trust the red cross


----------



## Kirkhill

Should have seen this coming

1 Had to stop the gas supply because of defective turbine
2 Gas supply stopped because turbine in for service in Canada
3 Gas supply stopped because Canadians won't return it
4 Gas supply stopped because Germans have it
5 Gas supply will stay stopped because Canadians didn't repair it properly



> Nord Stream 1 gas row deepens as Gazprom airs new complaints on repaired turbine​REUTERS
> PUBLISHED 3 HOURS AGO
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Pipes at the landfall facilities of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline are pictured in Lubmin, Germany, on March 8.HANNIBAL HANSCHKE/REUTERS
> 12 COMMENTS
> SHARE
> BOOKMARK
> LISTEN TO ARTICLE
> 
> Delivery of a Nord Stream 1 gas turbine to Germany from Canada after maintenance was not in line with the contract, Gazprom’s senior manager said on Friday, stepping up criticism of manufacturer Siemens Energy.
> The comments signaled a deepening of a row in which Russia has cited turbine problems as its reason for cutting gas supply via Nord Stream 1 – its main gas link to Europe – to just 20% of capacity from Wednesday.
> Vitaly Markelov, Gazprom’s deputy chief executive, also said Russia had complained repeatedly to Siemens Energy about problems with other turbines.
> “We have repeatedly applied to the Russian representative office of Siemens about this, sent 10 letters. Siemens fixed no more than a quarter of the identified bugs,” he said in a TV interview.
> He cited the serial numbers of three other engines that needed repair by Siemens because of faults in May and June that had put them in a state of forced downtime.
> Siemens Energy declined to respond to Markelov’s comments. The company referred to a previous statement made on Wednesday in which it said it had no access to the turbines on site and had not received any damage reports from Gazprom and so had to assume the turbines were operating normally.
> The European Union disputes Russia’s and Gazprom’s argument that turbine problems are to blame for the sharp drop in supply through the pipeline that links Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea. The shortfall has raised the risk of shortages and gas rationing in Europe this winter.
> Siemens Energy has previously countered Gazprom’s criticism over its service by saying it is up to the Russian company to file customs documents for the turbine’s return.
> With both sides trading economic blows since Russia sent its troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24, the European Union has accused Russia of energy blackmail, something the Kremlin denies.
> Markelov said the turbine that had been serviced in Canada had still not arrived back in Russia.
> 
> STORY CONTINUES BELOW ADVERTISEMENT
> 
> 
> “It was sent to Germany, not to Russia, without Gazprom’s consent,” he said, adding that this created sanctions risks.
> Gazprom also needs to send for repair other turbines from the Portovaya compressor station. “There is no clarity that the maintenance of the gas turbine engines will not fall under the sanctions,” Markelov said.











						Nord Stream 1 gas row deepens as Gazprom airs new complaints on repaired turbine
					

Gazprom’s senior manager said the repaired Nord Stream 1 gas turbine returned from Canada after maintenance was not in line with the contract




					www.theglobeandmail.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

TacticalTea said:


> I'm livid right now.
> 
> This week only:
> 1. Russia wants to restore the Soviet Union. Officially.
> 2. They allow their soldiers to torture and dismember Ukrainian soldiers, record such heinous acts, and share them on the internet.
> 3. They bomb a prison under THEIR OWN CONTROL just to get rid of POWs, killing dozens.
> 
> They're a terrorist organization engaged in a genocidal war of aggression in Europe, and despite all that, our lousy government and equally incompetent medias - have I mentioned that I hate journalists? - carry on with their daily business, reporting platitudes about condoms and the Pope.
> 
> *It appears that the greatest regret of my life will remain the fact that I didn't buy a one-way ticket to Poland in March of this year.*



Good luck, and don't get caught!

Foreign fighters in Ukraine, many in motley groups, face perils if captured.​
Over the last few weeks, a number of the thousands of foreign volunteers who flocked to join the fight against Russia have gone missing or have been captured.

Last week, two Britons and a Moroccan who were taken prisoner while fighting for the Ukrainian armed forces were sentenced to death in Russia-occupied eastern Ukraine, after being accused of terrorism.

This week, two Americans fighting with a group of foreign soldiers went missing in action near Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, which is about 25 miles from the Russian border. Their families fear they have been captured, having disappeared after the platoon came under fire.

The missing and captured fighters have focused attention on the thousands of largely unregulated volunteers in Ukraine, only some of whom have been accepted into the Ukrainian Army’s International Legion.

The platoon that the missing Americans belonged to was one of dozens of loosely organized volunteer outfits that have absorbed foreign veterans, including many Americans. The volunteers have proved to be both valuable assets and at times an unruly problem for Ukraine, and present a potentially difficult challenge for their home governments if they are caught or captured.


On Friday, President Biden said that he had been briefed on the two Americans reported to be missing in Ukraine, and that the administration does not know of their current location.

“I want to reiterate: Americans should not be going to Ukraine now,” he said.

The International Legion, formed after President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine issued a call in late February for foreigners to help fight, is considered the most selective of the foreign groups.

Damien Magrou, a French-Norwegian lawyer who is the spokesman for the Ukrainian military’s International Legion, said in an interview in April that he felt the war had “struck a chord” among many American veterans.

“There are also a lot of American vets who feel they can make a difference because the U.S. has been involved in a lot more conflicts in the last 20 years than European countries,” he said.

Mr. Magrou, a corporal in the legion’s structure, said volunteers now accepted by his organization had to pass background and psychological checks and were required to have combat experience, no records of dishonorable behavior and no membership in extremist groups. Other groups are not as selective, several military volunteers in Ukraine said.

The American veterans who are missing are Alex Drueke, 39, a former U.S. Army staff sergeant who served in Iraq, and Andy Tai Ngoc Huynh, 27, a former Marine, family members said. They disappeared when their platoon came under “heavy fire” in a village on June 9, leading all of its members to fall back except for the two of them, according to a statement sent by Mr. Drueke’s family. Reconnaissance by foot and drone did not turn up any sign of the two soldiers, the statement said.

The Geneva Conventions, which govern the law of war and which Russia has signed, specify that captured volunteer fighters can also be considered prisoners of war. The primary definition of a mercenary under international law is someone fighting primarily for financial gain who is paid substantially more than local armed forces.

Those who join the International Legion are paid the same amount as their Ukrainian military counterparts. They receive a basic salary, equaling about $630 a month, with bonuses that can reach several thousand dollars a month.

Some fighting with other groups are given one-time payments to defray their expenses, while others are unpaid.

Lawrence Hill-Cawthorne, an associate professor of law at the University of Bristol, said that even volunteer fighters not embedded in the Ukrainian military would be entitled to P.O.W. protection if they are openly carrying arms while fighting.









						Foreign fighters in Ukraine, many in motley groups, face perils if captured.
					

Thousands of foreign fighters have gone to fight for Ukraine, but not all join its International Legion. Russia has maintained that some of foreign fighters it has captured are mercenaries.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## CBH99

TacticalTea said:


> I'm livid right now.
> 
> This week only:
> 1. Russia wants to restore the Soviet Union. Officially.
> 2. They allow their soldiers to torture and dismember Ukrainian soldiers, record such heinous acts, and share them on the internet.
> 3. They bomb a prison under THEIR OWN CONTROL just to get rid of POWs, killing dozens.
> 
> They're a terrorist organization engaged in a genocidal war of aggression in Europe, and despite all that, our lousy government and equally incompetent medias - have I mentioned that I hate journalists? - carry on with their daily business, reporting platitudes about condoms and the Pope.
> 
> It appears that the greatest regret of my life will remain the fact that I didn't buy a one-way ticket to Poland in March of this year.


Amen brother.  I came close, but by the time I had made peace with the decision, it had been going on for a few months & I figured it would be over soon.  Like Crimea 2.0.

With the extremely long list of list of absolute s*** that's been going on since this started, and now THIS?   I regret overthinking it.  Like I really do.

(The decision felt liberating & great to be honest, like it was finally okay to take off the costume and go back to one of the few things I was decently good at)

______

And you're right.  That's just this week.  

I have found this war incredibly fascinating to follow, as it seems like on an almost daily basis I get shocked all over again by something I didn't think would happen this century...


What was the point of killing those POWs?   Just to be evil a*******?


----------



## CBH99

MilEME09 said:


> Let's not forget those prisoner's were ordered to surrender because the UN and ICRC promised they would guarantee health and safety of the POWs. Both those organizations have failed in their duties ti these POWs.
> 
> 
> Good luck convincing a single Ukrainian to surrender now, or trust the red cross


I don't know if it's a lack of trust in the UN or the ICRC.   

Both of those organizations mean well and sincerely have good intentions.   I doubt either of those organizations would have expected the Russian government to be as complicit it in these war crimes as they openly are...


It is a d*** good wake up call though.  _Unless you control the facility, you can't truly guarantee their safety._


----------



## brihard

CBH99 said:


> Amen brother.  I came close, but by the time I had made peace with the decision, it had been going on for a few months & I figured it would be over soon.  Like Crimea 2.0.
> 
> With the extremely long list of list of absolute s*** that's been going on since this started, and now THIS?   I regret overthinking it.  Like I really do.
> 
> (The decision felt liberating & great to be honest, like it was finally okay to take off the costume and go back to one of the few things I was decently good at)
> 
> ______
> 
> And you're right.  That's just this week.
> 
> I have found this war incredibly fascinating to follow, as it seems like on an almost daily basis I get shocked all over again by something I didn't think would happen this century...
> 
> 
> What was the point of killing those POWs?   Just to be evil a*******?


Tough to say. There may not necessarily have been a point beyond someone sufficiently senior felt like it. Maybe someone has a half baked notion of a false flag. I dunno.

I would be loath to head blame on ICRC. They’re an excellent organization in the field of international humanitarian law, but they have no coercive capability. They’re at the mercy of the authorities in effective control of the ground on which they wish to operate. If Russia or their proxies choose to deny certain prisoners PW status and the accordant protections, ICRC isn’t really in a position to do much about that. They will also be careful to make too much noise lest they compromise their ability to help the rest. I’m sure word is quietly being passed where it ought to be.


----------



## suffolkowner

eliminate evidence of torture?


----------



## brihard

suffolkowner said:


> eliminate evidence of torture?


Not a particularly good way to do it… Premortem and postmortem wounds are often distinct; a good forensic pathologist, with enough of a body left to examine, would be able to tell the two apart in at least some cases.

I’d like to know the ratio of dead to wounded. An artillery strike on a concrete building will kill some and probably wound a lot more. I bet a suspiciously high proportion are dead.


----------



## suffolkowner

brihard said:


> Not a particularly good way to do it… Premortem and postmortem wounds are often distinct; a good forensic pathologist, with enough of a body left to examine, would be able to tell the two apart in at least some cases.
> 
> I’d like to know the ratio of dead to wounded. An artillery strike on a concrete building will kill some and probably wound a lot more. I bet a suspiciously high proportion are dead.


probably just thought why not, maybe they had to calibrate the artillery. I doubt anyones going to be looking to hard anytime soon.

This is just the reality of the Russian political/military animal. For them time has not moved on, there are no niceties in war. The strong survive and the weak perish


----------



## YZT580

and the rest of the world stands by and watches, wrings their hands and murmur "isn't it terrible".  What a pathetic collection of cowards we have for leaders


----------



## rmc_wannabe

suffolkowner said:


> This is just the reality of the Russian political/military animal. For them time has not moved on, there are no niceties in war. The strong survive and the weak perishbecome complicit


Fixed that for you.

With every concession, half measure, appeasement, delay, dither.... we are complicit in these war crimes. 

NATO went full bore in the Balkans (a day late and a dollar short) when this type of barbarism was happening, the only thing keeping us out of Ukraine is a vague threat from a megalomaniac who has called our bluff. 

In the end, we have allowed this war of aggression to continue because we are weak. We grew fat and happy with our Peace Dividend and now we're ill prepared for this.


----------



## McG

rmc_wannabe said:


> the only thing keeping us out of Ukraine is a vague threat from a megalomaniac who has called our bluff.


It’s actually a very specific threat that the megalomaniac will retaliate with his country’s nuclear arsenal.

In other news, the CAF thinks the cupboards are running empty for his conventional forces.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1552746632424439808


----------



## Kat Stevens

Sorry, but is anyone really surprised? That particular portion of the planet has reduced being assholes to a science over the last 1000 years.


----------



## CBH99

McG said:


> It’s actually a very specific threat that the megalomaniac will retaliate with his country’s nuclear arsenal.
> 
> In other news, the CAF thinks the cupboards are running empty for his conventional forces.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1552746632424439808


Here's the thing...

The Kremlin doesn't care.  It doesn't care if you call them out, expose their lies, or expose any misinformation they present about their current operations.

They...don't...care...


A Russian embassy just supported supported executing prisoners of war, and made a point of suggesting it be done in a humiliating way.

They bomb shopping malls and schools, knowing full well the International press is in the area.

There are hundreds of intercepted phone calls, Where Russian servicemen brag about the atrocities they commit.   The Kremlin hasn't once suggested it is Western propaganda.

________

The West has become a pathetic collection of cowards when it comes to our political leaders.   

The leadership being demonstrated by national leaders in Eastern Europe shames us - ambitious yet doable,  and done punctually.


----------



## Skysix




----------



## CBH99

In all fairness, I think that applies to everybody.  What would normally be considered a healthy stockpile for the last few decades would be long gone by now, with Ukraine firing approximately 3000 a month.

Even if nobody has donated any of their own stocks of ammo... in a 1 vs 1 fight against Russia, we'd all be hurting for ammo by now.


----------



## daftandbarmy

CBH99 said:


> In all fairness, I think that applies to everybody.  What would normally be considered a healthy stockpile for the last few decades would be long gone by now, with Ukraine firing approximately 3000 a month.
> 
> Even if nobody has donated any of their own stocks of ammo... in a 1 vs 1 fight against Russia, we'd all be hurting for ammo by now.



Welcome to 1915:


Military briefing: is the west running out of ammunition to supply Ukraine?​
 “It’s like the first world war’s great shell crisis,” said Shea, recalling a 1915 scandal when massive artillery use in trench warfare depleted British stocks, a shortage that led to high troop casualties and the resignation of prime minister HH Asquith. Ben Wallace, the UK’s defence minister, has said western countries would struggle to wage a protracted war comparable to Russia’s assault on Ukraine as their ammunition stocks “are inadequate for the threats we face”. 

During a simulated war game last year, the UK’s ammunition ran out after eight days. No one believes the west is about to exhaust its basic weaponry by supplying Ukraine. Officials say most of the equipment provided to Ukraine remains available or can be swapped out for similar systems. Russia’s defence budget last year of $66bn, even when combined with China’s $293bn of spending, is dwarfed by Nato members’ combined budget of over $1.1tn.






						Subscribe to read | Financial Times
					

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication




					www.ft.com


----------



## McG

UK predicts increased urgency on the part of Russian occupiers to conduct Potemkin referendums to secure their Anschluss.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1553250993785245696


----------



## MilEME09

McG said:


> UK predicts increased urgency on the part of Russian occupiers to conduct Potemkin referendums to secure their Anschluss.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1553250993785245696


All thr more reason Ukraine needs to go on the offensive. They are playing a great defensive game, but unless they make significant gains, Russia will achieve its goals and the support from the west will wane if it is precieved that they are just very slowly loosing


----------



## CBH99

daftandbarmy said:


> Welcome to 1915:
> 
> 
> Military briefing: is the west running out of ammunition to supply Ukraine?​
> “It’s like the first world war’s great shell crisis,” said Shea, recalling a 1915 scandal when massive artillery use in trench warfare depleted British stocks, a shortage that led to high troop casualties and the resignation of prime minister HH Asquith. Ben Wallace, the UK’s defence minister, has said western countries would struggle to wage a protracted war comparable to Russia’s assault on Ukraine as their ammunition stocks “are inadequate for the threats we face”.
> 
> During a simulated war game last year, the UK’s ammunition ran out after eight days. No one believes the west is about to exhaust its basic weaponry by supplying Ukraine. Officials say most of the equipment provided to Ukraine remains available or can be swapped out for similar systems. Russia’s defence budget last year of $66bn, even when combined with China’s $293bn of spending, is dwarfed by Nato members’ combined budget of over $1.1tn.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Subscribe to read | Financial Times
> 
> 
> News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ft.com


Well good thing that isn’t possible then.  

Russia can’t clone itself, as it was 6 months ago.  

If there is another country on their shit list after Ukraine, Russia will be coming as it is… depleted of tanks, helicopters, fighters, troops, and a few less capital ships.  

Ukraine didn’t just bloody their nose & beat them back closer to their borders (a far cry from the steamroll the media kept talking about) - but Ukraine has held its own so admirably it’ll take the Russians at least a decade just to get back to where they were before the conflict.  


So any country would have found themselves running low in ammo in a protracted artillery war against Russia, including the US.  

Nobody factors in full scale usage when looking at their artillery ammo stockpile (realistically) - hence the massive orders for 500,000 rounds here and 250,000 rounds there.  


And if Russia wants to set its sights elsewhere after this, go for it.  I hear the Poles would LOVE to be given the green light & let loose.  

Let’s see how those T-64s work out.


----------



## CBH99

McG said:


> It’s actually a very specific threat that the megalomaniac will retaliate with his country’s nuclear arsenal.
> 
> In other news, the CAF thinks the cupboards are running empty for his conventional forces.


Wait, does this now make us a near peer?? 🤨

When this first started, I never for a moment took nukes seriously as a possible factor.  

I was still under the impression that while their goals are  violent & hard to understand, there was a clear & simple objective Russia was trying to accomplish. 


Now?  This has been so f**ked up in so many ways, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if nukes enter the equation.  

Whether to prevent a blatant loss, a false flag, or an unseen attack from its submarine force on random targets globally (that maybe makes sense to Russia, but nobody else) 

Vlad has threatened to use them, and Russia has openly stated their pre-emptive use policy.  


So that threat to use his nuclear arsenal?  I’m taking it seriously now.


----------



## Weinie

CBH99 said:


> Well good thing that isn’t possible then.
> 
> Russia can’t clone itself, as it was 6 months ago.
> 
> If there is another country on their shit list after Ukraine, Russia will be coming as it is… depleted of tanks, helicopters, fighters, troops, and a few less capital ships.
> 
> Ukraine didn’t just bloody their nose & beat them back closer to their borders (a far cry from the steamroll the media kept talking about) - but Ukraine has held its own so admirably it’ll take the Russians at least a decade just to get back to where they were before the conflict.
> 
> 
> So any country would have found themselves running low in ammo in a protracted artillery war against Russia, including the US.
> 
> Nobody factors in full scale usage when looking at their artillery ammo stockpile (realistically) - hence the massive orders for 500,000 rounds here and 250,000 rounds there.
> 
> 
> And if Russia wants to set its sights elsewhere after this, go for it.  I hear the Poles would LOVE to be given the green light & let loose.
> 
> Let’s see how those T-64s work out.


Oh yeah, the Poles have long memories. Better to keep them on the leash now. They would love to wreak havoc, and would, but then Warsaw, Krakow, and other cities would become radioactive ash.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> Alright I am not going to share this publicly but there is a video being shared around Russian telegram of a Russian soldiers torturing a Ukrainian POW including cutting his genitals off. Sadly much of the public on telegram is cheering in this behavior.


Both sides are committing atrocities, especially the murkier militia/paramilitary units.

The Georgians fighting for Ukrainian side openly admitted on camera they don't take prisoners.  They also cut a Russian soldier's genitals off and then stabbed them through the eye.  They were also dumb enough to document their crimes. 

The kneecapping of prisoners that made it's rounds a few months ago also turned out to be true.  The Commander of the unit responsible apologized for it and said it should not have happened; however, it was true.

We should be encouraging both sides to negotiate.  That would be the responsible thing to do, just like in Yugoslavia.


----------



## McG

Humphrey Bogart said:


> We should be encouraging both sides to negotiate. That would be the responsible thing to do, just like in Yugoslavia.


If the world’s democracies start pressuring Ukraine to make concessions, that only gives Russia time to recover and re-teaches that they can get away with invading and abusing their neighbours.
They have done it before, and they will do it again and again until a painful loss undoes the past lessons that they can get away with it.


----------



## Furniture

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Both sides are committing atrocities, especially the murkier militia/paramilitary units.
> 
> The Georgians fighting for Ukrainian side openly admitted on camera they don't take prisoners.  They also cut a Russian soldier's genitals off and then stabbed them through the eye.  They were also dumb enough to document their crimes.
> 
> The kneecapping of prisoners that made it's rounds a few months ago also turned out to be true.  The Commander of the unit responsible apologized for it and said it should not have happened; however, it was true.
> 
> We should be encouraging both sides to negotiate.  That would be the responsible thing to do, just like in Yugoslavia.


Sure, Germany Russia only wants the Sudetenland Crimea...


----------



## brihard

Humphrey Bogart said:


> We should be encouraging both sides to negotiate.  That would be the responsible thing to do, just like in Yugoslavia.



Horseshit. If a gang invades your home, you don’t negotiate a settlement wherein they keep the garage, the dining room, and half of the main floor hallway.

This war is simply an armed robbery writ large. Any negotiation should revolve around Russia’s very gradual readmittance into the west’s political and economic order after - and depending on the manner in which - Ukraine’s state sovereignty is restored. The alternative should be a continuous, incremental, but significant opening of the valve of equipment, support, and capabilities from the West that will allow Ukraine to continue destroying Russia’s military efforts on its soil. Break Russian stuff and kill Russian soldiers until there isn’t Russian stuff to break or Russian soldiers to kill on the territory of Ukraine.

Anything less is nothing more than appeasement of the sort only Chamberlain could love. The cost of anything less is simply having to do it again later. Do it now while Russia has foolishly blown its wad. And yes, this is worth the costs Russia will inflict on the West in retribution. Because they’ll just inflict those costs anyway sooner or later. Russia’s modern naked imperialism needs to be decisively quashed.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Humphrey Bogart said:


> We should be encouraging both sides to negotiate.  That would be the responsible thing to do, just like in Yugoslavia.


Because that worked out so well in the Balkans....

Much like in the former Yugoslavia, Russia does not see legitimacy in a sovereign Ukraine. They don’t even view them as human beings, but animals; vermin to be culled. This is not just an opinion held by a few mislead battalions with fanatical commanders; this is every Russian from Putin down. That hatred is instilled, fostered, and manifested as the norm and has become weaponized in Ukraine. Bucha is Sbrenica 2.0. 

You cannot in good faith negotiate with people who do not view you as having a right to exist on this planet, let alone territory or political independence.

This is the prelude to another World War. There I said it. I don't view this at all as ethnic tensions that are getting spicy; this is conquest, genocide, and barbarism and it's only the beginning.

The longer the West sticks it's head in the sand, the more atrocities will become common place. They will become emboldened. 

Give Ukraine what they need to fight, sure, but unless we do more to stop Russia in Ukraine, the more likely it is that Moldava, The Baltics, etc are ripe for the picking in Putin's eyes. Maybe not next week, but eventually. 

Putin is a brutal dictator and can afford to be patient. He doesn't give a shit about re-election. That is what concerns me most about our leaders response to this whole crisis.


----------



## daftandbarmy

brihard said:


> Horseshit. If a gang invades your home, you don’t negotiate a settlement wherein they keep the garage, the dining room, and half of the main floor hallway.
> 
> This war is simply an armed robbery writ large. Any negotiation should revolve around Russia’s very gradual readmittance into the west’s political and economic order after - and depending on the manner in which - Ukraine’s state sovereignty is restored. The alternative should be a continuous, incremental, but significant opening of the valve of equipment, support, and capabilities from the West that will allow Ukraine to continue destroying Russia’s military efforts on its soil. Break Russian stuff and kill Russian soldiers until there isn’t Russian stuff to break or Russian soldiers to kill on the territory of Ukraine.
> 
> Anything less is nothing more than appeasement of the sort only Chamberlain could love. The cost of anything less is simply having to do it again later. Do it now while Russia has foolishly blown its wad. And yes, this is worth the costs Russia will inflict on the West in retribution. Because they’ll just inflict those costs anyway sooner or later. Russia’s modern naked imperialism needs to be decisively quashed.



Exactly.

And this is what appeasement sounds like in connection with this struggle:

“*The Russian contribution to peace in Ukraine is not sufficient.* [German Chancellor commenting on 2014 Russian military intervention in Ukraine and annexation of Crimea]”
― Angela Merkel


----------



## MilEME09

Wow....PM photo op indeed


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1552670957415895041


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

rmc_wannabe said:


> Because that worked out so well in the Balkans....
> 
> Much like in the former Yugoslavia, Russia does not see legitimacy in a sovereign Ukraine. They don’t even view them as human beings, but animals; vermin to be culled. This is not just an opinion held by a few mislead battalions with fanatical commanders; this is every Russian from Putin down. That hatred is instilled, fostered, and manifested as the norm and has become weaponized in Ukraine. Bucha is Sbrenica 2.0.


Well, Yugoslavia is seven different countries now so things have actually worked out quite well and the region is considerably more stable. 



rmc_wannabe said:


> You cannot in good faith negotiate with people who do not view you as having a right to exist on this planet, let alone territory or political independence.
> 
> This is the prelude to another World War. There I said it. I don't view this at all as ethnic tensions that are getting spicy; this is conquest, genocide, and barbarism and it's only the beginning.
> The longer the West sticks it's head in the sand, the more atrocities will become common place. They will become emboldened.
> 
> Give Ukraine what they need to fight, sure, but unless we do more to stop Russia in Ukraine, the more likely it is that Moldava, The Baltics, etc are ripe for the picking in Putin's eyes. Maybe not next week, but eventually.
> 
> Putin is a brutal dictator and can afford to be patient. He doesn't give a shit about re-election. That is what concerns me most about our leaders response to this whole crisis.


If this is another prelude to a World War, do you think our actions have made our relativeposition more or less secure?



brihard said:


> Horseshit. If a gang invades your home, you don’t negotiate a settlement wherein they keep the garage, the dining room, and half of the main floor hallway.
> 
> This war is simply an armed robbery writ large. Any negotiation should revolve around Russia’s very gradual readmittance into the west’s political and economic order after - and depending on the manner in which - Ukraine’s state sovereignty is restored. The alternative should be a continuous, incremental, but significant opening of the valve of equipment, support, and capabilities from the West that will allow Ukraine to continue destroying Russia’s military efforts on its soil. Break Russian stuff and kill Russian soldiers until there isn’t Russian stuff to break or Russian soldiers to kill on the territory of Ukraine.
> 
> Anything less is nothing more than appeasement of the sort only Chamberlain could love. The cost of anything less is simply having to do it again later. Do it now while Russia has foolishly blown its wad. And yes, this is worth the costs Russia will inflict on the West in retribution. Because they’ll just inflict those costs anyway sooner or later. Russia’s modern naked imperialism needs to be decisively quashed.


Ok Mr. Law and Order, so lets just get rid of all international norms and other principles shall we.

Both sides are free to commit as many atrocities as they wish and the winner takes all.  I get it, "it's ok if we do it because our cause is just and righteous". 

Ian nails it here:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504838165110079510
Attacker/Defender has no bearing on whether something is a war crime or not.


----------



## brihard

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Well, Yugoslavia is seven different countries now so things have actually worked out quite well and the region is considerably more stable.
> 
> 
> If this is another prelude to a World War, do you think our actions have made our relativeposition more or less secure?
> 
> 
> Ok Mr. Law and Order, so lets just get rid of all international norms and other principles shall we.
> 
> Both sides are free to commit as many atrocities as they wish and the winner takes all.  I get it, "it's ok if we do it because our cause is just and righteous".
> 
> Ian nails it here:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504838165110079510
> Attacker/Defender has no bearing on whether something is a war crime or not.


I didn’t mention war crimes, you did, and I’m not particularly concerned with what some dude says on Twitter. Nor am I taking a legalistic/law and order approach to this. I’m not sure why you’re talking offhandedly about dispensing with norms and other principles while basically wringing your hands and suggesting that Putin’s aggression (though that term I DO choose deliberately for it’s legal significance) should be essentially accepted as a fait accomplit. I reject that. Ukraine has a right to defend itself and to see the help of like minded nations in doing so. It has a right to its sovereign territory per 2014 borders. It has the right to use armed force to protect the land it still has, defend its people and infrastructure, and to take back what has been stolen in the past eight years. If and when belligerents violate the law of armed conflict, I’m fully supportive of investigating and prosecuting that whichever side it should happen on.

While Putin and most of his cohorts should be in cells in The Hague, I’m realistic enough to know that they are quite safely ensconced within Russia’s borders. Doesn’t mean they’re entitled to any restraint by the other side beyond that which is necessary under the laws of war.

At any point if Russia doesn’t want its soldiers getting killed and its equipment destroyed, they can simply pack up and fuck off like they did in 1989. The West should use its economic and industrial might to incentivize that, and to give Ukraine all appropriate tools for its toolbox. Russia needs to learn that wars of aggression will not be allowed or tolerated, and that it will cost them far more deeply than could ever be justified by anything they might gain.

Russia has no business in Ukraine. Kill Russian soldiers, break Russian stuff in or on the borders of Ukraine until they get this through their head.


----------



## McG

NATO did have to bomb Yugoslavia before there could be peace.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Well, Yugoslavia is seven different countries now so things have actually worked out quite well and the region is considerably more stable.


After numerous atrocities, massacres, displaced persons, military intervention by NATO and a whole generation lost.

It's seven different countries bound by ethnic lines and after a lot of bloodshed. That's not a metric for success, that's trying to find a silver lining in a pile of corpses.



Humphrey Bogart said:


> If this is another prelude to a World War, do you think our actions have made our relativeposition more or less secure?


IMHO, we have shown we aren't a dependable ally. We are Fairweather friends within NATO, we have shown we have no strategic thinkers in cabinet, we have been reactionary with our support to Ukraine, we have no footing militarily to react to a total war scenario, and it is playing right into the hands of Putin.

Ukraine isn't a Saint in this, I will concede. Atrocities are happening on both sides. Ukraine, however, has actually taken steps to address these crimes and its not a matter of policy from their elected leaders to commit war crimes. Russia on the other hand....


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> Wow....PM photo op indeed
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1552670957415895041


----------



## daftandbarmy

The GPS elves are at work 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1553097820860600320


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> Exactly.
> 
> And this is what appeasement sounds like in connection with this struggle:
> 
> “*The Russian contribution to peace in Ukraine is not sufficient.* [German Chancellor commenting on 2014 Russian military intervention in Ukraine and annexation of Crimea]”
> ― Angela Merkel


And here was me thinking the Brits topped the bill for understatement...


----------



## Skysix

daftandbarmy said:


> Welcome to 1915:
> 
> 
> Military briefing: is the west running out of ammunition to supply Ukraine?​
> “It’s like the first world war’s great shell crisis,” said Shea, recalling a 1915 scandal when massive artillery use in trench warfare depleted British stocks, a shortage that led to high troop casualties and the resignation of prime minister HH Asquith. Ben Wallace, the UK’s defence minister, has said western countries would struggle to wage a protracted war comparable to Russia’s assault on Ukraine as their ammunition stocks “are inadequate for the threats we face”.
> 
> During a simulated war game last year, the UK’s ammunition ran out after eight days. No one believes the west is about to exhaust its basic weaponry by supplying Ukraine. Officials say most of the equipment provided to Ukraine remains available or can be swapped out for similar systems. Russia’s defence budget last year of $66bn, even when combined with China’s $293bn of spending, is dwarfed by Nato members’ combined budget of over $1.1tn.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Subscribe to read | Financial Times
> 
> 
> News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ft.com


Total $ spent are irrelevant. Many of the NATO weapons systems and consumeables (SMART shells and missiles etc) are horrendously expensive, maybe even overpriced.

A better metric might be the tonnage of new weapons systems and consumeables.

And if the UK really did exchange 140 ish 4th gen fighters for 40ish F-35 again we have a situation of quantity overwhelming quality.


----------



## Skysix

McG said:


> NATO did have to bomb Yugoslavia before there could be peace.


Yeah, it would be a shame if a Ukrainian SF unit or 10 bombed Putins Palace and the Kremlin. Just try not to damage St. Basils.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Skysix said:


> Total $ spent are irrelevant. Many of the NATO weapons systems and consumeables (SMART shells and missiles etc) are horrendously expensive, maybe even overpriced.
> 
> A better metric might be the tonnage of new weapons systems and consumeables.
> 
> And if the UK really did exchange 140 ish 4th gen fighters for 40ish F-35 again we have a situation of quantity overwhelming quality.


Sort of. 

For as much as we need to have a logistical superiority, we need to make sure our assets are also relevant. Having a battery of C3s can still get rounds on target; if they aren't out ranged by something superior. 

I made the comment when we were looking at the Gripen. Unless we were buying enough to overwhelm a potential enemy with numbers (unrealistic) it would just be an expensive first day with a total loss of air assets. 

We need to be careful to strike a balance between quality and quantity.


----------



## Skysix

rmc_wannabe said:


> Sort of.
> 
> For as much as we need to have a logistical superiority, we need to make sure our assets are also relevant. Having a battery of C3s can still get rounds on target; if they aren't out ranged by something superior.
> 
> I made the comment when we were looking at the Gripen. Unless we were buying enough to overwhelm a potential enemy with numbers (unrealistic) it would just be an expensive first day with a total loss of air assets.
> 
> We need to be careful to strike a balance between quality and quantity.


Agree. And the F35 has its place - in a penetration/exploitation role and as a forward data link to missile and bomb trucks. The B52, B101, F15X, F18E/F come to mind. Leave the fighter role to the F22 and CAS to the A10 with F16 in reserve for both.

Wait, what? We have none of those? We are expecting a short legged under refuelling tanker resourced single engine sluggish 'fighter' with no AWACS to do eveything from CAS and ADIZ intercepts/prosecutions in the arctic to steath penetration in support of NATO???

Let me know how that works out in 10 years or so or when Russia or China decides to militarize the NW passage as their own.


----------



## suffolkowner

Skysix said:


> Agree. And the F35 has its place - in a penetration/exploitation role and as a forward data link to missile and bomb trucks. The B52, B101, F15X, F18E/F come to mind. Leave the fighter role to the F22 and CAS to the A10 with F16 in reserve for both.
> 
> Wait, what? We have none of those? We are expecting a short legged under refuelling tanker resourced single engine sluggish 'fighter' with no AWACS to do eveything from CAS and ADIZ intercepts/prosecutions in the arctic to steath penetration in support of NATO???
> 
> Let me know how that works out in 10 years or so or when Russia or China decides to militarize the NW passage as their own.


I think I'll take the F-35 and every advantage I can over the adversary. There are no F-22's outside the US and it is going to be harder to keep the limited number of combat capable ones flying. If you are flying low and slow and loud whether its an A-10 or a KA-52 or an Apache you are greatly exposed and at great risk. I'm pretty sure that the RCAF will find that the F-35 is a substantial improvement over the F-18 kinetically and range.

Both the Russians and Ukrainians have lost over 40(confirmed) aircraft each so far, now not all have been fighters but the Russians have lost another 40 helicopters as well. The Russians continue to operate within their AD coverage and tread lightly elsewhere firing standoff missiles. A testament at least in part to the impact of AD systems. I think this has been one of the defining features of this conflict and I am glad they we have chosen the F-35


----------



## Eaglelord17

Humphrey Bogart said:


> We should be encouraging both sides to negotiate.  That would be the responsible thing to do, just like in Yugoslavia.


Very different scenarios. Yugoslavia being the desolation of a state into seperate countries, whereas this being a state invading a sovereign state. 

Yugoslavia was much closer to the desolution of the USSR, which coincidentally Ukraine and Russia came to a treaty. In which Russia recognized Ukraines sovereignty and promised not to violate it in exchange for Ukraine handing over all their nukes. Not that any war is particularly justified but that alone makes this invasion even less so.


----------



## Skysix

@suffolkowner:
"I'm pretty sure that the RCAF will find that the F-35 is a substantial improvement over the F-18 kinetically and range"

Nope. F35A range 1379m CF18 range 2069m. Almost exactly 1.5x as far. But that is oneway. Combat range with 30 min on station is more like 500 vs 800. (I am a leg not a flier so I dunno about precise combat ranges. Ditto ordanance load but with the F35A staying stealthy with internal load only, the F18C/D can carry more things that go boom).

My main point however was we are moving to a smaller (since so pricey) single airplane fleet with inadequate support aircraft.

SOME F35A for NATO support and NORAD contingencies, maybe not a bad idea. But it is NOT the airframe best suited to homeland defence given our current southern posture with only 2 fighter bases and limited refuelling for arctic intercepts.

We need a cheaper better in-service rate easier to repair fighter bomber with LINK16 and a sensor pod with the F35's long range AESA radar etc. that can haul a substantial deterrant's worth of missiles and bombs.

Like maybe a mixed fleet of F15EX and F35A?


----------



## TacticalTea

Eaglelord17 said:


> Very different scenarios. Yugoslavia being the desolation of a state into seperate countries, whereas this being a state invading a sovereign state.
> 
> Yugoslavia was much closer to the desolution of the USSR, which coincidentally Ukraine and Russia came to a treaty. In which Russia recognized Ukraines sovereignty and promised not to violate it in exchange for Ukraine handing over all their nukes. Not that any war is particularly justified but that alone makes this invasion even less so.


The word you're looking for is dissolution.


----------



## Kat Stevens

TacticalTea said:


> The word you're looking for is dissolution.


There was plenty of desolation on my three visits too.


----------



## suffolkowner

Skysix said:


> @suffolkowner:
> "I'm pretty sure that the RCAF will find that the F-35 is a substantial improvement over the F-18 kinetically and range"
> 
> Nope. F35A range 1379m CF18 range 2069m. Almost exactly 1.5x as far. But that is oneway. Combat range with 30 min on station is more like 500 vs 800. (I am a leg not a flier so I dunno about precise combat ranges. Ditto ordanance load but with the F35A staying stealthy with internal load only, the F18C/D can carry more things that go boom).
> 
> My main point however was we are moving to a smaller (since so pricey) single airplane fleet with inadequate support aircraft.
> 
> SOME F35A for NATO support and NORAD contingencies, maybe not a bad idea. But it is NOT the airframe best suited to homeland defence given our current southern posture with only 2 fighter bases and limited refuelling for arctic intercepts.
> 
> We need a cheaper better in-service rate easier to repair fighter bomber with LINK16 and a sensor pod with the F35's long range AESA radar etc. that can haul a substantial deterrant's worth of missiles and bombs.
> 
> Like maybe a mixed fleet of F15EX and F35A?


Are we sure?


			Wayback Machine
		

this old LM brochure states the interdiction range on the F-35 as 760nm and can carry 18000lb weapons payload versus the F-18's ?

But yes I agree smaller fleets of increasingly more costly platforms is a concern


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> But yes I agree smaller fleets of increasingly more costly platforms is a concern


I think this war has shown our defense industry is not set up to support a near peer fight, even if current production ramped up, even basic small  arms ammo could be a concern


----------



## Skysix

suffolkowner said:


> Are we sure?
> 
> 
> Wayback Machine
> 
> 
> this old LM brochure states the interdiction range on the F-35 as 760nm and can carry 18000lb weapons payload versus the F-18's ?
> 
> But yes I agree smaller fleets of increasingly more costly platforms is a concern


You can carry fuel or ordanance up to a point. Then you trade one against the other. Also be mindfull of which varient - the F35C has more wing so can load more fuel and carry more weight but we didn't get that one. 

And be carefull re definition of interdiction range. Is that out and back only or with 'x' min of loiter time. Manufacturers blurbs tend to be very 'rosy'. Even test pilot reports as they are often invested in the outcome. Best source is airspace manager after action reports of simulated or real world full mission profile flights.


----------



## Skysix

Just a minor point, who is/are Canada's peer(s)?

Definitely not Denmark, Holland or Australia. We would punch well below our weight if we tried to be a near peer to them.


----------



## MilEME09

Can I get an engineers opinion on the EoD method?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1553761405056212992


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

rmc_wannabe said:


> After numerous atrocities, massacres, displaced persons, military intervention by NATO and a whole generation lost.
> 
> It's seven different countries bound by ethnic lines and after a lot of bloodshed. That's not a metric for success, that's trying to find a silver lining in a pile of corpses.


This is the direction Ukraine is on a course for atm.  IMO it's probably going to look a lot like the Korean Peninsula at the end of this with a nice big DMZ and minefield separating both parties.  The question will be where the line is? 

That is an unknown at the moment, despite all the propaganda being put out by both sides.  I've been hearing for months that Russia has exhausted itself (culminated).  The most recent being a week and a half ago when pundits said Lysychansk was all the juice they had left in the tank.  They are again advancing in the Donbass and the Ukrainian Government just ordered to full evacuation of the Donbass.

I've also been reading and hearing for months that Ukraine is going to launch a counter-offensive. I lost count of how many times they've announced they are launching an offensive in Kherson.  The last one they did launch didn't even make it through the MDA along the Inhulets.


rmc_wannabe said:


> IMHO, we have shown we aren't a dependable ally. We are Fairweather friends within NATO, we have shown we have no strategic thinkers in cabinet, we have been reactionary with our support to Ukraine, we have no footing militarily to react to a total war scenario, and it is playing right into the hands of Putin.


Canada is an irrelevant Country.  We aren't even a Middle Power anymore.  The sad part is we have a lot of potential that could be leveraged to support our Allies, but we have a Government that claims to be Globalist but is actually Isolationist in practice.

The Liberal Government occupying Ottawa atm embodies the statement "All Politics is Local".  I can't really blame them because it is quite possibly the weakest Government I've seen in my lifetime.  


rmc_wannabe said:


> Ukraine isn't a Saint in this, I will concede. Atrocities are happening on both sides. Ukraine, however, has actually taken steps to address these crimes and its not a matter of policy from their elected leaders to commit war crimes. Russia on the other hand....


Thank you for taking the time to actually seriously reply to this.  Is that actually a policy of the Ukrainian Government though or is that just treating conjecture as evidence?









						Ukraine conflict: how both sides are breaking the law on prisoners of war
					

Treatment of POWs by Ukraine and Russia is breaking international rules.




					theconversation.com
				




Who was the aggressor in the conflict does not absolve someone from a war crime.  It's actually irrelevant.

It's impossible for me to view Ukraine as a complete victim when the current Regime are pulling the exact same crap the Russians are pulling.  Support needs to come with conditions that they clean up their act, especially if they want to align themselves with the Liberal Rules-Based World Order.



Eaglelord17 said:


> Very different scenarios. Yugoslavia being the desolation of a state into seperate countries, whereas this being a state invading a sovereign state.
> Yugoslavia was much closer to the desolution of the USSR, which coincidentally Ukraine and Russia came to a treaty. In which Russia recognized Ukraines sovereignty and promised not to violate it in exchange for Ukraine handing over all their nukes. Not that any war is particularly justified but that alone makes this invasion even less so.


That's a very simplistic view of this conflict and ignores about a decade+ of political and military events, plus it ignores the legitimate ethnic and nationalist tensions underpinning this conflict, particularly in the Donbass and other areas of Ukraine with high numbers of people who identify as as Russians.  

Or are you taking the position that there are no ethnic or nationalist issues in this conflict? Interesting position to take considering the actions undertaken by both the Zelensky and Putin Regimes:









						New Language Requirement Raises Concerns in Ukraine
					

A new legal provision on the use of the Ukrainian language, part of a broader state language law, raises concerns about protection for minority languages.




					www.hrw.org
				












						In risky move, Ukraine’s president bans pro-Russian media
					

Zelenskyy accuses the channels of spreading Kremlin-funded ‘propaganda’, drawing support in the US but ire in the EU.




					www.aljazeera.com
				




Also an interesting position to take considering the existence of separatist movements within Ukraine itself (The LPR and DPR are run by Ukrainians who align with Russia).  

There is no question that this escalation and invasion is an unjust act but you also can't ignore the events prior to this, Euromaidan, Annexation of Crimea, the failure of Minsk I and II, etc.

Or the events that have taken place since, here are a few examples:









						The fallout of Zelenskyy’s secret citizenship revocations
					

Ihor Kolomoisky, Hennadiy Korban, and Vadim Rabinovich, three powerful Ukrainian businessmen, have suddenly became targets in a rumored presidential decree on the revocation of citizenship. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy never confirmed the existence of this document, but Korban is no longer...




					news.yahoo.com
				












						Zelenskyy has consolidated Ukraine's TV outlets and dissolved rival political parties
					

President Zelenskyy has consolidated all TV platforms in Ukraine into one state broadcast and restricted political rivals. Political opposition fears such civil liberty constraints could continue.




					www.npr.org
				












						Ukraine’s ‘servant of the people’ is a Western fiction
					

The real Zelensky is an anti-hero who has degraded whatever democracy existed in Ukraine, writes Dimitri Lascaris. He instituted a profoundly unpopular program of neoliberalism. He has deep ties to a shady oligarch who funded Ukrainian neo-Nazis. Perhaps worst of all, he betrayed his promise to...



					canadiandimension.com
				












						Ukraine Bans Pro-Russian Opposition Political Party
					

A court decision indicated that all of the party’s assets and property within Ukraine would immediately be forfeited and given to the state.




					nationalinterest.org
				












						Ukraine restricts Russian books and music in latest step of ‘derussification’
					

New laws also increase quotas on Ukrainian-language speech and music on television and radio




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## dapaterson

Interesting thread on Russian equipment, and a kill chain that may be multiple decades out of date.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1553745899871952897


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> You can carry fuel or ordanance up to a point. Then you trade one against the other. Also be mindfull of which varient - the F35C has more wing so can load more fuel and carry more weight but we didn't get that one.
> 
> And be carefull re definition of interdiction range. Is that out and back only or with 'x' min of loiter time. Manufacturers blurbs tend to be very 'rosy'. Even test pilot reports as they are often invested in the outcome. Best source is airspace manager after action reports of simulated or real world full mission profile flights.



Don't forget refuelling options.

There are the fancy ones, like dedicated Air to air assets.  But there are also, in the Canadian context dozens, if not hundreds of alternate airfields to which aircraft can divert both before and after prosecuting a target.

And one mission might see a pair of F35s go directly to the target from Cold Lake and loiter briefly while another pair first goes to a FOL for a gas up prior to taking over the watch.  The first pair can return to the FOL, gas up and sit on the runway until the watchkeepers run out and need replacement.

Add in even a modest AAR capability and the range question becomes a lot more complex than one just checking published ranges.

The new wrinkle is the addition of low cost intelligent boosters/drones that have the potential of adding thousands of kilometers of range to existing munitions without the capital and operational expense of a manned bomb truck like an F15.

Those mean that an armed drone can wait on the ground and dispatch the same weapons the F35s and P8s are carrying allowing them to carry fewer weapons and more fuel.

It's not even calculus versus arithmetic on this stuff.  There is a strong element of the Ouija board these days.


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> This is the direction Ukraine is on a course for atm.  IMO it's probably going to look a lot like the Korean Peninsula at the end of this with a nice big DMZ and minefield separating both parties.  The question will be where the line is?
> 
> That is an unknown at the moment, despite all the propaganda being put out by both sides.  I've been hearing for months that Russia has exhausted itself (culminated).  The most recent being a week and a half ago when pundits said Lysychansk was all the juice they had left in the tank.  They are again advancing in the Donbass and the Ukrainian Government just ordered to full evacuation of the Donbass.
> 
> I've also been reading and hearing for months that Ukraine is going to launch a counter-offensive. I lost count of how many times they've announced they are launching an offensive in Kherson.  The last one they did launch didn't even make it through the MDA along the Inhulets.
> 
> Canada is an irrelevant Country.  We aren't even a Middle Power anymore.  The sad part is we have a lot of potential that could be leveraged to support our Allies, but we have a Government that claims to be Globalist but is actually Isolationist in practice.
> 
> The Liberal Government occupying Ottawa atm embodies the statement "All Politics is Local".  I can't really blame them because it is quite possibly the weakest Government I've seen in my lifetime.
> 
> Thank you for taking the time to actually seriously reply to this.  Is that actually a policy of the Ukrainian Government though or is that just treating conjecture as evidence?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine conflict: how both sides are breaking the law on prisoners of war
> 
> 
> Treatment of POWs by Ukraine and Russia is breaking international rules.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> theconversation.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Who was the aggressor in the conflict does not absolve someone from a war crime.  It's actually irrelevant.
> 
> It's impossible for me to view Ukraine as a complete victim when the current Regime are pulling the exact same crap the Russians are pulling.  Support needs to come with conditions that they clean up their act, especially if they want to align themselves with the Liberal Rules-Based World Order.
> 
> 
> That's a very simplistic view of this conflict and ignores about a decade+ of political and military events, plus it ignores the legitimate ethnic and nationalist tensions underpinning this conflict, particularly in the Donbass and other areas of Ukraine with high numbers of people who identify as as Russians.
> 
> Or are you taking the position that there are no ethnic or nationalist issues in this conflict? Interesting position to take considering the actions undertaken by both the Zelensky and Putin Regimes:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New Language Requirement Raises Concerns in Ukraine
> 
> 
> A new legal provision on the use of the Ukrainian language, part of a broader state language law, raises concerns about protection for minority languages.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.hrw.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In risky move, Ukraine’s president bans pro-Russian media
> 
> 
> Zelenskyy accuses the channels of spreading Kremlin-funded ‘propaganda’, drawing support in the US but ire in the EU.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.aljazeera.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Also an interesting position to take considering the existence of separatist movements within Ukraine itself (The LPR and DPR are run by Ukrainians who align with Russia).
> 
> There is no question that this escalation and invasion is an unjust act but you also can't ignore the events prior to this, Euromaidan, Annexation of Crimea, the failure of Minsk I and II, etc.
> 
> Or the events that have taken place since, here are a few examples:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The fallout of Zelenskyy’s secret citizenship revocations
> 
> 
> Ihor Kolomoisky, Hennadiy Korban, and Vadim Rabinovich, three powerful Ukrainian businessmen, have suddenly became targets in a rumored presidential decree on the revocation of citizenship. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy never confirmed the existence of this document, but Korban is no longer...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zelenskyy has consolidated Ukraine's TV outlets and dissolved rival political parties
> 
> 
> President Zelenskyy has consolidated all TV platforms in Ukraine into one state broadcast and restricted political rivals. Political opposition fears such civil liberty constraints could continue.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.npr.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine’s ‘servant of the people’ is a Western fiction
> 
> 
> The real Zelensky is an anti-hero who has degraded whatever democracy existed in Ukraine, writes Dimitri Lascaris. He instituted a profoundly unpopular program of neoliberalism. He has deep ties to a shady oligarch who funded Ukrainian neo-Nazis. Perhaps worst of all, he betrayed his promise to...
> 
> 
> 
> canadiandimension.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine Bans Pro-Russian Opposition Political Party
> 
> 
> A court decision indicated that all of the party’s assets and property within Ukraine would immediately be forfeited and given to the state.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nationalinterest.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine restricts Russian books and music in latest step of ‘derussification’
> 
> 
> New laws also increase quotas on Ukrainian-language speech and music on television and radio
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com



Neither Chamberlain's nor Churchill's Britains were democracies during WW2.  Civil liberties were abridged and the BBC was the State's voice.  

"Don't you know there's a war on?"

If Trudeau can declare an emergency because there is a truck in his parking spot and he can't get a tow truck then I am inclined to cut Zelenskyy some slack for at least as long as it takes to clear the neighbours from the ground they agreed was his.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Kirkhill said:


> Neither Chamberlain's nor Churchill's Britains were democracies during WW2.  Civil liberties were abridged and the BBC was the State's voice.
> 
> "Don't you know there's a war on?"
> 
> If Trudeau can declare an emergency because there is a truck in his parking spot and he can't get a tow truck then I am inclined to cut Zelenskyy some slack for at least as long as it takes to clear the neighbours from the ground they agreed was his.


I agree that we should cut them some slack but that ends when it comes to language rights, destruction of literature, etc.  Both the Ukrainian and Russian Nationalists are in the wrong when it comes to denying use of the others language, destruction of books and literature, expropriation of property, etc.

These actions began before the escalation of the conflict.  Did these moves by Zelensky help him in the current predicament in any way?

I don't even understand how Canadians, given our own history with Residential Schools and Language Issues, could endorse a Regime that conducts itself in such a manner.


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I agree that we should cut them some slack but that ends when it comes to language rights, destruction of literature, etc.  Both the Ukrainian and Russian Nationalists are in the wrong when it comes to denying use of the others language, destruction of books and literature, expropriation of property, etc.
> 
> These actions began before the escalation of the conflict.  Did these moves by Zelensky help him in the current predicament in any way?
> 
> I don't even understand how Canadians, given our own history with Residential Schools and Language Issues, could endorse a Regime that conducts itself in such a manner.


I guess I would have to consider myself a "situationalist" if not a relativist.  I think time and place need to be considered and I don't think that now, in the middle of the war  is the time or place to get bent out of shape about niceties.  Gouging eyeballs sounds pretty abhorrent over Sunday morning coffee. On the other hand it may have made all the sense in the world 6 hours earlier if my daughter were jumped on her way back to her car from a club.  Time and place.

If you're in a fight, witnessing a fight, contemplating your actions after the fight or contemplating someone else's actions after their fight your judgements are all likely to be somewhat at variance.

And by the way, for the record, in Canada property has no legal standing.  That should be fixed.... but I digress.


----------



## CBH99

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I agree that we should cut them some slack but that ends when it comes to language rights, destruction of literature, etc.  Both the Ukrainian and Russian Nationalists are in the wrong when it comes to denying use of the others language, destruction of books and literature, expropriation of property, etc.
> 
> These actions began before the escalation of the conflict.  Did these moves by Zelensky help him in the current predicament in any way?
> 
> I don't even understand how Canadians, given our own history with Residential Schools and Language Issues, could endorse a Regime that conducts itself in such a manner.


I agree on the Microism that forbidding a language, or burning of books, etc isn't a primer for good things to come.  The nationalists on both sides need to smarten up & stop doing that nonsense.

But in the overall picture, our other option is to support a murderous regime hellbent on the elimination of Ukraine & it's very people.  A regime that openly supports killing POW's (after torture), mass murders, and a military culture of being as cruel as possible pre-emptively to destroy the locals' hope.  Not to mention also, ia the blatant aggressor.  

Between the two sides, I'd rather us support the side that IS NOT doing all that


----------



## YZT580

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I agree that we should cut them some slack but that ends when it comes to language rights, destruction of literature, etc.  Both the Ukrainian and Russian Nationalists are in the wrong when it comes to denying use of the others language, destruction of books and literature, expropriation of property, etc.
> 
> These actions began before the escalation of the conflict.  Did these moves by Zelensky help him in the current predicament in any way?
> 
> I don't even understand how Canadians, given our own history with Residential Schools and Language Issues, could endorse a Regime that conducts itself in such a manner.


the lessor of two evils maybe?  Add in superb PR and very poor optics, I mean obliterating schools, shopping malls and hospitals and then denying it doesn't work at all.  As for ethnic cleansing, I believe that Stalin started that in Ukraine which is the only reason why there are a plethora of Russians in the Donbass.  The previous residents are dead.


----------



## suffolkowner

Skysix said:


> You can carry fuel or ordanance up to a point. Then you trade one against the other. Also be mindfull of which varient - the F35C has more wing so can load more fuel and carry more weight but we didn't get that one.
> 
> And be carefull re definition of interdiction range. Is that out and back only or with 'x' min of loiter time. Manufacturers blurbs tend to be very 'rosy'. Even test pilot reports as they are often invested in the outcome. Best source is airspace manager after action reports of simulated or real world full mission profile flights.


pretty sure that number was for the "A". Is there any open source info available that is remotely reliable and apples to apples? Wikipedia has the combat range for a F-18 at 400nm A2A and the CF-18 at 290nm hi-lo-lo-hi so obviously details matter. I'll take a look over at F-16.net as I'm sure I've read this discussion over there before




Skysix said:


> Just a minor point, who is/are Canada's peer(s)?
> 
> Definitely not Denmark, Holland or Australia. We would punch well below our weight if we tried to be a near peer to them.


If we magically get our procurement of F-35's, A330-MRTT's, P8's and CSC's sorted out will be in decent shape but I do not have much hope for a way forward for the army as the various discussions on this board have shown. Luckily we don't have to worry about any threats to from anyone with the exception of Russia and China which should bring our American cousins


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> Don't forget refuelling options.
> 
> There are the fancy ones, like dedicated Air to air assets.  But there are also, in the Canadian context dozens, if not hundreds of alternate airfields to which aircraft can divert both before and after prosecuting a target.
> 
> And one mission might see a pair of F35s go directly to the target from Cold Lake and loiter briefly while another pair first goes to a FOL for a gas up prior to taking over the watch.  The first pair can return to the FOL, gas up and sit on the runway until the watchkeepers run out and need replacement.
> 
> Add in even a modest AAR capability and the range question becomes a lot more complex than one just checking published ranges.
> 
> The new wrinkle is the addition of low cost intelligent boosters/drones that have the potential of adding thousands of kilometers of range to existing munitions without the capital and operational expense of a manned bomb truck like an F15.
> 
> Those mean that an armed drone can wait on the ground and dispatch the same weapons the F35s and P8s are carrying allowing them to carry fewer weapons and more fuel.
> 
> It's not even calculus versus arithmetic on this stuff.  There is a strong element of the Ouija board these days.


Operation Black Buck enters the chat.


While aerial refuelling can increase a fighter’s time on station, or allow takeoff with maximum ordnance and a partial fuel load, there are limits on how much it can increase range. Even with tanker support the maximum achievable range for the F-35A is between 625 and 950 miles (nominally 680).

So instead lets talk PAVED runways (as it cannot land on a gravel runway. The FOD nazi's and maintainers would have a conniption fit)  runways of adequate length for a F35A. They need a minimum runway length of 8,000 feet to operate. A shorter runway could be used, but then ordnance or fuel may need to be sacrificed to reduce the take-off weight. And we didn't get the parachutes like Norway or the C version with the reuseable tail hook so the arresting cables at the FOL's are of no use.

That leaves us with 2 in the arctic, (ie 55 to 85 degrees): Whitehorse, and Iqaluit and 5 in the subarctic (50 to 55 degrees) Churchill, Goose Bay, Edmonton, Saskatoon and Calgary. A total of 7 useable airports of which only 3 are within range of the ADIZ border (YXY, YFB, YYR)


----------



## McG

How many of those Arctic airfields that can support F35 are also able to support the new tankers?


----------



## Skysix

suffolkowner said:


> pretty sure that number was for the "A". Is there any open source info available that is remotely reliable and apples to apples? Wikipedia has the combat range for a F-18 at 400nm A2A and the CF-18 at 290nm hi-lo-lo-hi so obviously details matter. I'll take a look over at F-16.net as I'm sure I've read this discussion over there before
> 
> 
> 
> If we magically get our procurement of F-35's, A330-MRTT's, P8's and CSC's sorted out will be in decent shape but I do not have much hope for a way forward for the army as the various discussions on this board have shown. Luckily we don't have to worry about any threats to from anyone with the exception of Russia and China which should bring our American cousins


Yes, for the F35A as that is what we eventually are getting.


----------



## Skysix

McG said:


> How many of those Arctic airfields that can support F35 are also able to support the new tankers?


All of them are over 8000' by 150' with ramps capable of taking the weight.


----------



## dapaterson

The recent announcement by MND includes airfield infra in the north, along with additional AAR assets.

Airfields are dual use technology so to speak, and will also support the surrounding communities.


----------



## suffolkowner

Humphrey Bogart said:


> This is the direction Ukraine is on a course for atm.  IMO it's probably going to look a lot like the Korean Peninsula at the end of this with a nice big DMZ and minefield separating both parties.  The question will be where the line is?
> 
> That is an unknown at the moment, despite all the propaganda being put out by both sides.  I've been hearing for months that Russia has exhausted itself (culminated).  The most recent being a week and a half ago when pundits said Lysychansk was all the juice they had left in the tank.  They are again advancing in the Donbass and the Ukrainian Government just ordered to full evacuation of the Donbass.
> 
> I've also been reading and hearing for months that Ukraine is going to launch a counter-offensive. I lost count of how many times they've announced they are launching an offensive in Kherson.  The last one they did launch didn't even make it through the MDA along the Inhulets.
> 
> Canada is an irrelevant Country.  We aren't even a Middle Power anymore.  The sad part is we have a lot of potential that could be leveraged to support our Allies, but we have a Government that claims to be Globalist but is actually Isolationist in practice.
> 
> The Liberal Government occupying Ottawa atm embodies the statement "All Politics is Local".  I can't really blame them because it is quite possibly the weakest Government I've seen in my lifetime.
> 
> Thank you for taking the time to actually seriously reply to this.  Is that actually a policy of the Ukrainian Government though or is that just treating conjecture as evidence?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine conflict: how both sides are breaking the law on prisoners of war
> 
> 
> Treatment of POWs by Ukraine and Russia is breaking international rules.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> theconversation.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Who was the aggressor in the conflict does not absolve someone from a war crime.  It's actually irrelevant.
> 
> It's impossible for me to view Ukraine as a complete victim when the current Regime are pulling the exact same crap the Russians are pulling.  Support needs to come with conditions that they clean up their act, especially if they want to align themselves with the Liberal Rules-Based World Order.
> 
> 
> That's a very simplistic view of this conflict and ignores about a decade+ of political and military events, plus it ignores the legitimate ethnic and nationalist tensions underpinning this conflict, particularly in the Donbass and other areas of Ukraine with high numbers of people who identify as as Russians.
> 
> Or are you taking the position that there are no ethnic or nationalist issues in this conflict? Interesting position to take considering the actions undertaken by both the Zelensky and Putin Regimes:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New Language Requirement Raises Concerns in Ukraine
> 
> 
> A new legal provision on the use of the Ukrainian language, part of a broader state language law, raises concerns about protection for minority languages.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.hrw.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In risky move, Ukraine’s president bans pro-Russian media
> 
> 
> Zelenskyy accuses the channels of spreading Kremlin-funded ‘propaganda’, drawing support in the US but ire in the EU.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.aljazeera.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Also an interesting position to take considering the existence of separatist movements within Ukraine itself (The LPR and DPR are run by Ukrainians who align with Russia).
> 
> There is no question that this escalation and invasion is an unjust act but you also can't ignore the events prior to this, Euromaidan, Annexation of Crimea, the failure of Minsk I and II, etc.
> 
> Or the events that have taken place since, here are a few examples:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The fallout of Zelenskyy’s secret citizenship revocations
> 
> 
> Ihor Kolomoisky, Hennadiy Korban, and Vadim Rabinovich, three powerful Ukrainian businessmen, have suddenly became targets in a rumored presidential decree on the revocation of citizenship. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy never confirmed the existence of this document, but Korban is no longer...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Zelenskyy has consolidated Ukraine's TV outlets and dissolved rival political parties
> 
> 
> President Zelenskyy has consolidated all TV platforms in Ukraine into one state broadcast and restricted political rivals. Political opposition fears such civil liberty constraints could continue.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.npr.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine’s ‘servant of the people’ is a Western fiction
> 
> 
> The real Zelensky is an anti-hero who has degraded whatever democracy existed in Ukraine, writes Dimitri Lascaris. He instituted a profoundly unpopular program of neoliberalism. He has deep ties to a shady oligarch who funded Ukrainian neo-Nazis. Perhaps worst of all, he betrayed his promise to...
> 
> 
> 
> canadiandimension.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine Bans Pro-Russian Opposition Political Party
> 
> 
> A court decision indicated that all of the party’s assets and property within Ukraine would immediately be forfeited and given to the state.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nationalinterest.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine restricts Russian books and music in latest step of ‘derussification’
> 
> 
> New laws also increase quotas on Ukrainian-language speech and music on television and radio
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com


HB

I agree there were some questionable decisions made by Ukraine. As an outsider a certain amount of bilingualism seems reasonable but then again i am not expecting the US or UK to invade Canada/Quebec to enforce anglophone rights either. Seems a rather extreme punitive reaction by Russia. While the Ukrainians response is a result of fighting centuries of enforced Russification

I've long questioned whether the US didn't lure Russia into this conflict to drain its resources once again otherwise it just seems that the conflict escalation could have been avoided 

Having said that I wouldn't be following any Geneva conventions if Canada was invaded. If they wanted to avoid having war crimes visited on themselves they could start by not participating in them or maybe just go home


----------



## suffolkowner

Skysix said:


> Operation Black Buck enters the chat.
> 
> 
> While aerial refuelling can increase a fighter’s time on station, or allow takeoff with maximum ordnance and a partial fuel load, there are limits on how much it can increase range. Even with tanker support the maximum achievable range for the F-35A is between 625 and 950 miles (nominally 680).
> 
> So instead lets talk PAVED runways (as it cannot land on a gravel runway. The FOD nazi's and maintainers would have a conniption fit)  runways of adequate length for a F35A. They need a minimum runway length of 8,000 feet to operate. A shorter runway could be used, but then ordnance or fuel may need to be sacrificed to reduce the take-off weight. And we didn't get the parachutes like Norway or the C version with the reuseable tail hook so the arresting cables at the FOL's are of no use.
> 
> That leaves us with 2 in the arctic, (ie 55 to 85 degrees): Whitehorse, and Iqaluit and 5 in the subarctic (50 to 55 degrees) Churchill, Goose Bay, Edmonton, Saskatoon and Calgary. A total of 7 useable airports of which only 3 are within range of the ADIZ border (YXY, YFB, YYR)



Prince George? 53 degrees 11000 ft not exactly north to me but

Do we know for sure that we will not acquire the parachute?

How come tanker support does not increase range? You have to tank to cross the Atlantic? I thought I saw out of graphics out of Australia where they were using tanking to extending range? 



dapaterson said:


> The recent announcement by MND includes airfield infra in the north, along with additional AAR assets.
> 
> Airfields are dual use technology so to speak, and will also support the surrounding communities.


This was my understanding as well, that all FOL's were to be upgraded including Rankin Inlet


----------



## Skysix

suffolkowner said:


> Prince George? 53 degrees 11000 ft not exactly north to me but
> 
> Do we know for sure that we will not acquire the parachute?
> 
> How come tanker support does not increase range? You have to tank to cross the Atlantic? I thought I saw out of graphics out of Australia where they were using tanking to extending range?
> 
> 
> This was my understanding as well, that all FOL's were to be upgraded including Rankin Inlet


Was trying to figure that out as well. Was  from a RAAF study.









						Projecting power with the F-35 (part 1): How far can it go? | The Strategist
					

One of the ironies of the current debate about how Australia should adjust its military strategy in light of the changing great-power balance in the Indo-Pacific is that many of the participants—regardless of their views ...




					www.aspistrategist.org.au
				












						Projecting power with the F-35 (part 2): going further | The Strategist
					

In part 1, I examined the hard limits on the F-35A’s unrefuelled range. Air-to-air refuelling can certainly help extend it. Tankers can substantially increase fighters’ time on station (that is, how long they can stay ...




					www.aspistrategist.org.au
				




"air-to-air refuelling doesn’t help that much with increasing the F-35A’s combat range.
Would more of the same help? The short answer is, it can’t extend range much beyond 1,500 km as that limit derives from the nature of the F-35A"

As to naval version landing gear and tail hooks (too late in the game to modify an A model structurally) or a parachute, nobody REALLY knows 100% for sure until they arrive. Some day. Eventually. Possibly in our lifetimes.


----------



## Skysix

suffolkowner said:


> Prince George? 53 degrees 11000 ft not exactly north to me but
> 
> Do we know for sure that we will not acquire the parachute?
> 
> How come tanker support does not increase range? You have to tank to cross the Atlantic? I thought I saw out of graphics out of Australia where they were using tanking to extending range?
> 
> 
> This was my understanding as well, that all FOL's were to be upgraded including Rankin Inlet


Good point and catch. I was too focused on the polar threat that only we can address and fotgot about the northern Pacific threat. Mostly because they would have to pass through US assets from AK and OR.

If they really want to defend the arctic Canada coastline and interior waterways they really need to build a full-on total force FOB at Resolute with appropriate stationed assets to include first line maintenance, A2AD, RW and CC-138 with floats as well as a specialised arctic battalion of airborne, air assault, 2x BVS-10 and LOSV mounted light infantry companies with Ranger enablers at the section level and integral air and armor defense. A few long range anti-ship missiles wouldn't hurt either. A 6 pack of F35A and 3 tankers as well. And a few naval armed littoral ice-capable patrol craft. Oh, and a hardened underground fuel farm (one cruise missile pre attack and the OpFor has almost won already).

Ain't never gonna happen.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Skysix said:


> Operation Black Buck enters the chat.



A great option .... if you want to win a medal for logistics


----------



## Skysix

daftandbarmy said:


> Russia’s defence budget last year of $66bn, even when combined with China’s $293bn of spending, is dwarfed by Nato members’ combined budget of over $1.1tn.


----------



## CBH99

That video was really good actually! First time I've listened to one from start to finish in a while.  Good post!


----------



## Skysix

CBH99 said:


> That video was really good actually! First time I've listened to one from start to finish in a while.  Good post!


A lot of Perun's analysis vids of Ukraine conflict and defense economics are university lecture level good. Definitely not death by powerpoint. I look forward to each new one every sunday.


----------



## CBH99

Skysix said:


> A lot of Perun's analysis vids of Ukraine conflict and defense economics are university lecture level good. Definitely not death by powerpoint. I look forward to each new one every sunday.


Glad you posted it, and said what you said above.  Subscribed


----------



## suffolkowner

Skysix said:


> Good point and catch. I was too focused on the polar threat that only we can address and fotgot about the northern Pacific threat. Mostly because they would have to pass through US assets from AK and OR.
> 
> If they really want to defend the arctic Canada coastline and interior waterways they really need to build a full-on total force FOB at Resolute with appropriate stationed assets to include first line maintenance, A2AD, RW and CC-138 with floats as well as a specialised arctic battalion of airborne, air assault, 2x BVS-10 and LOSV mounted light infantry companies with Ranger enablers at the section level and integral air and armor defense. A few long range anti-ship missiles wouldn't hurt either. A 6 pack of F35A and 3 tankers as well. And a few naval armed littoral ice-capable patrol craft. Oh, and a hardened underground fuel farm (one cruise missile pre attack and the OpFor has almost won already).
> 
> Ain't never gonna happen.


Goose Bay as well although again not real far north


----------



## Skysix

suffolkowner said:


> Goose Bay as well although again not real far north


Well to be fair, Denmark/Greenland has been known to slip in undetected....


----------



## Skysix

So . . . How DO you knock out a truss style railway bridge using rockets and artillery?









						Ukraine War: Q & A, 24 July 2022
					

Hello everybody!




					medium.com


----------



## TacticalTea

Skysix said:


> So . . . How DO you knock out a truss style railway bridge using rockets and artillery?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine War: Q & A, 24 July 2022
> 
> 
> Hello everybody!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> medium.com


The rest of the article is pretty much how I feel about and see the current situation.

Western powers are selfishly - though myopically - thinking about themselves, the preservation of their capabilities, and their re-election prospects, but none of them seriously working towards a winning game plan.

The situation should be treated as if we actually were at war with Russia, with the only caveat that we can't take and hold ground ourselves. We are so far from that sort of commitment it's disheartening. ''Here's an Ipad, leave me alone''-type parenting, but for a nation at war.


----------



## TacticalTea

Interesting discussions coming out of https://twitter.com/MriyaReport for those who have the time to tune in.


----------



## MilEME09

Video released by Ukraine of the 71st Jeager brigade, this is a band new brigade that just rotated to the front and has been making progress around izyum


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1553693032666615808


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Meanwhile demining efforts continues


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1553763445832548352


----------



## lenaitch

These guys are like 6' away and seem to be unscathed.  Is the effective range of these mines that small?  I can see the tire having a blanketing effect but the stick (or whatever it is).


----------



## McG

lenaitch said:


> These guys are like 6' away and seem to be unscathed.  Is the effective range of these mines that small?  I can see the tire having a blanketing effect but the stick (or whatever it is).


Different AP mines are intended to have different effects. Some will pop into the air and spread enough frag to kill a section (or more if spacing discipline is bad) while others will destroy the foot & lower leg of whoever directly steps on it.


----------



## daftandbarmy

lenaitch said:


> These guys are like 6' away and seem to be unscathed.  Is the effective range of these mines that small?  I can see the tire having a blanketing effect but the stick (or whatever it is).



Engineers be like....


----------



## RangerRay

lenaitch said:


> These guys are like 6' away and seem to be unscathed.  Is the effective range of these mines that small?  I can see the tire having a blanketing effect but the stick (or whatever it is).


I dunno. The guy who threw the tire was holding his side afterwards like he may have gotten hit by a small piece of shrapnel.


----------



## Kirkhill

Ease up on the brakes, lads!

This applies to Russian civvy pilots.









						Russian pilots told to 'brake less' as spare parts run out
					

Western sanctions are forcing airlines to minimise wear and tear to planes




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				






> Russian pilots have been told not to brake too much to reduce wear and tear amid a shortage of parts for plane repairs because of western sanctions.
> 
> According to internal memos from four Russian airline companies, pilots have been asked to be gentle when breaking and taxing.
> 
> S7 Airlines has told pilots to use engine reverse thrust and to avoid autobrake mode if the runaway is long enough, the Aviatorshina Telegram channel reported. Pilots were also told they shouldn’t go hard on brakes in order to get off the runaway quickly to make way for other planes.
> 
> Urals Airlines, Rossiya and Pobeda published similar memos instructing pilots to “pay close attention to a temporary policy of fuel efficiency and economising the aircraft’s resources”.
> 
> Traffic control were given separate instructions to offer aircraft longer slots for landing to give planes more time to taxi off the runway.
> 
> Aeroflot did not issue similar memos in writing but Aviatorshina, a popular aviation media outlet in Russia, quoted an Aeroflot pilot, saying they have been told to spare brakes as well.
> 
> Russian airline companies are grappling with a shortage of spare parts as international companies refuse to sell to them owing to sanctions put in place after the invasion of Ukraine.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Mushroom (cloud) season might be just around the corner ....

UN nuclear chief: Ukraine nuclear plant is 'out of control'​
The UN nuclear chief warned that Europe's largest nuclear power plant in Ukraine "is completely out of control" and issued an urgent plea to Russia and Ukraine to quickly allow experts to visit the sprawling complex to stabilize the situation and avoid a nuclear accident.

Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said in an interview Tuesday with The Associated Press that the situation is getting more perilous every day at the Zaporizhzhya plant in the southeastern city of Enerhodar, which Russian troops seized in early March, soon after their Feb. 24. invasion of Ukraine.

"Every principle of nuclear safety has been violated" at the plant, he said. "What is at stake is extremely serious and extremely grave and dangerous."

Grossi cited many violations of the plant's safety, adding that it is "in a place where active war is ongoing," near Russian-controlled territory.

The physical integrity of the plant hasn't been respected, he said, citing shelling at the beginning of the war when it was taken over and continuing information from Ukraine and Russia accusing each other of attacks at Zaporizhzhya.

There is "a paradoxical situation" in which the plant is controlled by Russia, but its Ukrainian staff continues to run its nuclear operations, leading to inevitable moments of friction and alleged violence, he said. While the IAEA has some contacts with staff, they are "faulty" and "patchy," he said.

Grossi said the supply chain of equipment and spare parts has been interrupted, "so we are not sure the plant is getting all it needs." The IAEA also needs to perform very important inspections to ensure that nuclear material is being safeguarded, "and there is a lot of nuclear material there to be inspected," he said.

"When you put this together, you have a catalog of things that should never be happening in any nuclear facility," Grossi said. "And this is why I have been insisting from day one that we have to be able to go there to perform this safety and security evaluation, to do the repairs and to assist as we already did in Chernobyl."




			https://www.ctvnews.ca/i-tech/un-nuclear-chief-ukraine-nuclear-plant-is-out-of-control-1.6012150


----------



## Skysix

Ukraine has definitely mastered the PR war...


----------



## CBH99

daftandbarmy said:


> Mushroom (cloud) season might be just around the corner ....
> 
> UN nuclear chief: Ukraine nuclear plant is 'out of control'​
> The UN nuclear chief warned that Europe's largest nuclear power plant in Ukraine "is completely out of control" and issued an urgent plea to Russia and Ukraine to quickly allow experts to visit the sprawling complex to stabilize the situation and avoid a nuclear accident.
> 
> Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said in an interview Tuesday with The Associated Press that the situation is getting more perilous every day at the Zaporizhzhya plant in the southeastern city of Enerhodar, which Russian troops seized in early March, soon after their Feb. 24. invasion of Ukraine.
> 
> "Every principle of nuclear safety has been violated" at the plant, he said. "What is at stake is extremely serious and extremely grave and dangerous."
> 
> Grossi cited many violations of the plant's safety, adding that it is "in a place where active war is ongoing," near Russian-controlled territory.
> 
> The physical integrity of the plant hasn't been respected, he said, citing shelling at the beginning of the war when it was taken over and continuing information from Ukraine and Russia accusing each other of attacks at Zaporizhzhya.
> 
> There is "a paradoxical situation" in which the plant is controlled by Russia, but its Ukrainian staff continues to run its nuclear operations, leading to inevitable moments of friction and alleged violence, he said. While the IAEA has some contacts with staff, they are "faulty" and "patchy," he said.
> 
> Grossi said the supply chain of equipment and spare parts has been interrupted, "so we are not sure the plant is getting all it needs." The IAEA also needs to perform very important inspections to ensure that nuclear material is being safeguarded, "and there is a lot of nuclear material there to be inspected," he said.
> 
> "When you put this together, you have a catalog of things that should never be happening in any nuclear facility," Grossi said. "And this is why I have been insisting from day one that we have to be able to go there to perform this safety and security evaluation, to do the repairs and to assist as we already did in Chernobyl."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.ctvnews.ca/i-tech/un-nuclear-chief-ukraine-nuclear-plant-is-out-of-control-1.6012150


Well that’s a real downer.  I hate bad news like that, especially when such nonsense has the potential to affect the whole planet.  

Given what’s at stake, could the Russians _really_ not have realized at the beginning of all of this…”shelling nuclear plant is bad idea!”  “Troops shooting at each other around nuclear plant, bad idea!”


For the love of Pete…Let the nuclear engineer types go inspect, stabiiize, and fix the plant.  

You won’t want the land you’ve illegally invaded if it’s radioactive as f**k, for crying out loud…


----------



## Kirkhill

Long, but informative and entertaining interview with a retired Colonel-General of the National Police, 51, now serving as a Senior Sergeant and Section Leader in the 72nd Brigade.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wf2503


----------



## Kirkhill

An old timer with a scrounged RPG-18, four handgrenades and a cell phone... vs a Russian convoy.
He stopped the column.  The arty did the killing.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wfetf6


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> An old timer with a scrounged RPG-18, four handgrenades and a cell phone... vs a Russian convoy.
> He stopped the column.  The arty did the killing.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wfetf6


When everyone has had basic military training, any who have the inclination can become defenders. Age no barrier.


----------



## Skysix

Stalingrad then vs Melitopol/Kherson/Mariupol now. Only the weapons and uniforms seem to have changed.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Double dog dare ya'...


Ukraine war: Russia accuses US of direct role in Ukraine war​
In April, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said US President Joe Biden's decision to supply Ukraine with billions of dollars worth of arms meant "Nato, in essence, is engaged in a war with Russia through a proxy and is arming that proxy".

"War means war," the 72-year-old warned.










						Ukraine war: Russia accuses US of direct role in Ukraine war
					

Moscow accuses the US of directly approving targets for US-made artillery used by Ukraine.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## Skysix

daftandbarmy said:


> Double dog dare ya'...
> 
> 
> Ukraine war: Russia accuses US of direct role in Ukraine war​
> In April, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said US President Joe Biden's decision to supply Ukraine with billions of dollars worth of arms meant "Nato, in essence, is engaged in a war with Russia through a proxy and is arming that proxy".
> 
> "War means war," the 72-year-old warned.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine war: Russia accuses US of direct role in Ukraine war
> 
> 
> Moscow accuses the US of directly approving targets for US-made artillery used by Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com


Seems self evidently true to me that NATO (not the US) is at war with Russia. So.... What is his point? He should be thankful NATO politically is so reluctant to do anything much in a kinetically and time appropriate manner.


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1555066589829013505


----------



## brihard

Looks like there may be an announcement today that Op UNIFIER may be back on, with Canadian troops going to the UK to train Ukrainian troops alongside the Brits and possibly others. Great news if accurate.



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/operation-unifier-canada-ukraine-training-1.6540588


----------



## daftandbarmy

brihard said:


> Looks like there may be an announcement today that Op UNIFIER may be back on, with Canadian troops going to the UK to train Ukrainian troops alongside the Brits and possibly others. Great news if accurate.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/operation-unifier-canada-ukraine-training-1.6540588



Jolly good!


----------



## Kilted

Only saw the end of it and it was mostly her answering questions about procurement and not answering one about South Korea.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Just back from my time in Europe (Croatia (Dubrovnik), France and Ireland).
Saw some interesting things while in Dubrovnik, namely the 2 high end vehicles (Toyota Land Cruiser and some type of Benz SUV) with Ukrainian license plates at the condo building I was staying at in the Lapad area of Dubrovnik......add to that the 7-series BMW with an Ontario license plate (license sticker from Aug 19) and the name 'D. Sutherland' on one of the mailboxes.....not sure if this translates to Donald Sutherland or not, but it was amusing to see this.

One of the cars (the Benz SUV) is from Kyiv and the Toyota Land Cruiser is from Dnipropetrovsk area.


----------



## AmmoTech90

Colin Parkinson said:


> Meanwhile demining efforts continues


They are "clearing" PFM-1 ap mines.  Very little metal content, a fuze in the centre that is probably 1.5cm across and 4 long.  The body is soft plastic and looks like a large maple seed with one fat side holding around 40g of liquid explosive.

So very little metal frag and just enough bang to rip up your foot, hand, etc.  Face plant on one and your probably a goner, otherwise a very bad day.

Not unexpected but sort of unlucky if buddy got fragged in the ass.


----------



## McG

The “maple seed.”


----------



## MilEME09

Alot of controversy today over amnesty international's report of ukrainian forces actions in the war so far. I haven't read it my self yet so I won't comment in the report it self yet but Russia is jumping all over it as justification. Though AI Ukraines branch wasn't consulted apparently which raises questions 



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1555383943662272512

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1555272472240463873


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> Alot of controversy today over amnesty international's report of ukrainian forces actions in the war so far. I haven't read it my self yet so I won't comment in the report it self yet but Russia is jumping all over it as justification. Though AI Ukraines branch wasn't consulted apparently which raises questions
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1555383943662272512
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1555272472240463873


Never had much esteem for Amnesty.

They came after Quebec and they've shown to be a questionable, shady organization over the years.


----------



## CBH99

daftandbarmy said:


> Double dog dare ya'...
> 
> 
> Ukraine war: Russia accuses US of direct role in Ukraine war​
> In April, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said US President Joe Biden's decision to supply Ukraine with billions of dollars worth of arms meant "Nato, in essence, is engaged in a war with Russia through a proxy and is arming that proxy".
> 
> "War means war," the 72-year-old warned.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine war: Russia accuses US of direct role in Ukraine war
> 
> 
> Moscow accuses the US of directly approving targets for US-made artillery used by Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com


In all fairness, they aren’t wrong.  

While American troops may not be doing the fighting directly against Russian troops, the Americans have become more or less directly involved in the war.  Just because they aren’t fighting on the front lines doesn’t mean they aren’t directly involved.  

They, like the rest of us, have sent weaponry to Ukraine intended to be used against the Russians - and to great affect.  And they’re sending more.

They have provided the Ukrainians with drastically enhanced capabilities than what they previously had, allowing Ukraine to strike valuable targets far behind Russian lines.  

They openly admit to providing the  Ukrainians with real time intelligence, re sinking the warship Moskva, and crippling one of Russia’s new frigates.


The list goes on, but the Russians aren’t wrong.  America IS directly involved, and that’s a good thing.  Russia attacked one of America’s allies, and has openly committed what seems like an ever growing list of war crimes…


@Soldier35 Russia doesn’t like the fact that America is directly involved?  Eat shit, too bad.


----------



## ueo

Kilted said:


> Only saw the end of it and it was mostly her answering questions about procurement and not answering one about South Korea.


Dumb question (maybeeeee): where are the troops coming from as instructors seem to imply MCpl or better, Cbt Arms, probably infantry? Cdn recruiting also implies a draw on similar resources, In my little infantry mind 1+1 does not equal what some pol has ideated. Where are  our military adults praytell?


----------



## MilEME09

Who had nuclear disaster on their bingo card? Both sides are trading blame bit the plant was hit by arty. Russia has been using the plant to hide equipment and shell Nikopol


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1555596931077898252

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1555579945430163461


----------



## Colin Parkinson

The grain deal, which also benefits Russian grain exports is clearly important to both sides


----------



## OldSolduer

TacticalTea said:


> Never had much esteem for Amnesty.
> 
> They came after Quebec and they've shown to be a questionable, shady organization over the years.


And neither have I. They will yell and scream at democratic nations yet whisper or say nothing at all to dictatorships.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

OldSolduer said:


> And neither have I. They will yell and scream at democratic nations yet whisper or say nothing at all to dictatorships.


Who do you think will actually listen? Dictatorial and oppressive regimes will murder AI members at will for speaking out, democratic ones will bend and bow to avoid bad press prior to an election. 

We like to think the world has changed since 1945, it hasn't.


----------



## OldSolduer

rmc_wannabe said:


> Who do you think will actually listen? Dictatorial and oppressive regimes will murder AI members at will for speaking out, democratic ones will bend and bow to avoid bad press prior to an election.
> 
> We like to think the world has changed since 1945, it hasn't.


In many ways its worse. Like I said earlier - I miss the USSR.


----------



## The Bread Guy

OldSolduer said:


> ... They will yell and scream at democratic nations yet *whisper or say nothing at all to dictatorships*.


To be fair, not _entirely_ true ....





						Russian Federation Archives
					

Every year, Amnesty International evaluates the human rights situation in countries around the world. Stay up to date and learn about key human rights issues in Russian Federation




					www.amnesty.org
				











						Ukraine: Civilians killed by ‘reckless’ Russian attacks on Serhiivka apartment block and beach resort
					

Russian air strikes on an apartment block and beach resort hotel in the coastal town of Serhiivka in southern Ukraine killed at least 21 civilians, Amnesty International said today following a new on-the-ground investigation. The strikes, apparently using anti-ship missiles, hit the town in the...




					www.amnesty.org
				











						Ukraine: Russian soldiers filmed viciously attacking Ukrainian POW must face justice
					

Responding to a video reportedly showing Russian soldiers apparently castrating a Ukrainian prisoner of war, who is gagged with his hands tied behind his back, Marie Struthers, Amnesty International’s Director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, said: “This horrific assault is yet another...




					www.amnesty.org
				











						Russia: Charging 92 members of Ukraine’s military with ‘crimes against humanity’ brazenly undermines fair trial rights
					

Responding to the news that 92 members of the Ukrainian armed forces have reportedly been charged with “crimes against humanity”, Denis Krivosheev, Amnesty International’s Deputy Director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, said: “In charging these 92 members of the Ukrainian armed forces in...




					www.amnesty.org
				











						Ukraine: Hundreds killed in relentless Russian shelling of Kharkiv – new investigation
					






					www.amnesty.org
				











						Ukraine/Russia: “Death sentences” against three foreign members of Ukrainian forces by separatists’ “courts” a blatant violation of international law
					

Responding to the news that a separatist “court” in Russia-occupied Donetsk ordered the death of two captured two British nationals and a captured Moroccan national, Denis Krivosheev, Amnesty International’s Deputy Director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, said: “This is a blatant violation...




					www.amnesty.org
				











						Ukraine/Russia: The rights of Ukrainian prisoners of war from Azovstal must be respected
					

Responding to the news that the Ukrainian soldiers who were besieged in Mariupol’s Azovstal steel plant for months have surrendered themselves to Russia’s armed forces, Denis Krivosheev, Amnesty International’s Deputy Director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, said: “Ukraine’s soldiers...




					www.amnesty.org
				











						Ukraine: Russian forces extrajudicially executing civilians in apparent war crimes – new testimony
					

Russian military forces have extrajudicially executed civilians in Ukraine in apparent war crimes, Amnesty International said today as it published new testimony following on-the-ground research. Amnesty International’s Crisis Response investigators interviewed more than 20 people from villages...




					www.amnesty.org
				











						Russia commits indiscriminate attacks during the invasion of Ukraine
					

Indiscriminate attacks violate international humanitarian law (the laws of war) and can constitute war crimes.




					www.amnesty.org


----------



## The Bread Guy

One hopes one reaps what one sows ....








						Tracking the Faceless Killers who Mutilated and Executed a Ukrainian POW - bellingcat
					

In a series of gruesome videos, a man wearing a cowboy hat mutilates a Ukrainian prisoner of war before murdering him. Open source evidence suggests the involvement of a Chechen-led paramilitary group.




					www.bellingcat.com


----------



## CBH99

OldSolduer said:


> In many ways its worse. Like I said earlier - I miss the USSR.


Compared to whatever ‘this Russia’ is, absolutely.  

Putin’s dreams of a USSR 2.0 may be far fetched at best, especially if today’s Russia is it’s foundation.


----------



## Kirkhill

Colin Parkinson said:


> The grain deal, which also benefits Russian grain exports is clearly important to both sides
> 
> View attachment 72354


Take a look at that map.  Which side has the most vulnerable choke point? 

I'll take that Kerch Bridge for a thousand Alex.


----------



## MilEME09

Well this is getting weird


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1555511931452145664


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> Well this is getting weird
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1555511931452145664


----------



## rmc_wannabe

MilEME09 said:


> Well this is getting weird
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1555511931452145664


You know you're desperate when you're getting your mercenaries from North Korea....


----------



## brihard

Looks like that’s coming from reporting within Russia… I won’t give it any credence without corroboration.


----------



## CBH99

MilEME09 said:


> Well this is getting weird
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1555511931452145664


"Dammit Sergei, did you forget about the logistics again!?  How would they even get here!?"

🤷‍♂️


----------



## CBH99

rmc_wannabe said:


> You know you're desperate when you're getting your _starving & horribly under-equipped_ mercenaries from North Korea....


Edited the above for clarity 😉

Are the Chechens too expensive now?  Run out of Chechens willing to fight on Russia's side?

Did Wagner get wiped out? (Like...again?)  Was it the Chechens who did it one grumpy morning, 'just because'...?


This _is_ getting weird...


----------



## Maxman1

What does Russia's recruitment for mercenaries look like? This?


----------



## MilEME09

CBH99 said:


> Edited the above for clarity 😉
> 
> Are the Chechens too expensive now?  Run out of Chechens willing to fight on Russia's side?
> 
> Did Wagner get wiped out? (Like...again?)  Was it the Chechens who did it one grumpy morning, 'just because'...?
> 
> 
> This _is_ getting weird...


Wagner is reportly recruiting about 1000 prisoners from max security prisons to fill their ranks. Fight in exchange for freedom, if they survive


----------



## suffolkowner

Well 50,000 South Koreans served in Vietnam and I guess Ukraine is the Vietnam of this era.

I can't understand the need for Russia to recruit from prisons, surely they have enough people that have served previously that could be recruited.


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> Well 50,000 South Koreans served in Vietnam and I guess Ukraine is the Vietnam of this era.
> 
> I can't understand the need for Russia to recruit from prisons, surely they have enough people that have served previously that could be recruited.


Probably to help hide casualties, no one would care if convicted murderers or sex offenders were killed in a war vs bloggins from moscow


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

suffolkowner said:


> Well 50,000 South Koreans served in Vietnam and I guess Ukraine is the Vietnam of this era.
> 
> I can't understand the need for Russia to recruit from prisons, surely they have enough people that have served previously that could be recruited.


Do you ever think that most of what is said publicly by both sides is just nonsense 😉

Sun Tzu - "All warfare is based on deception"

I'm just amazed that people still believe everything they are told after almost two decades of lies in the GWoT.  😄


----------



## suffolkowner

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Do you ever think that most of what is said publicly by both sides is just nonsense 😉
> 
> Sun Tzu - "All warfare is based on deception"
> 
> I'm just amazed that people still believe everything they are told after almost two decades of lies in the GWoT.  😄


Yes but it seems obvious that Russia has a problem generating manpower. Prisoner recruiting whether Russian or Ukrainian may just be part of a PR campaign but it doesn't address the issue. Russia should be able to draw on the large pool of conscripts from previous years at least


----------



## KevinB

suffolkowner said:


> I can't understand the need for Russia to recruit from prisons, surely they have enough people that have served previously that could be recruited.


Desires and Needs are two different things.


----------



## KevinB

suffolkowner said:


> Yes but it seems obvious that Russia has a problem generating manpower. Prisoner recruiting whether Russian or Ukrainian may just be part of a PR campaign but it doesn't address the issue. Russia should be able to draw on the large pool of conscripts from previous years at least


They can't without mobilization -- Russia is caught somewhat in a Catch-22 about Mobilization, as to mobilize it is no longer a SMO - but a War, and certain limitations on what he can/can't do kick in while the Military and Security Forces gain much more input.


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> Yes but it seems obvious that Russia has a problem generating manpower. Prisoner recruiting whether Russian or Ukrainian may just be part of a PR campaign but it doesn't address the issue. Russia should be able to draw on the large pool of conscripts from previous years at least


Russia seems to be doing everything to prevent mobilization, forceful conscription in occupied areas, reservists called up short term, recall of those with combat experience, prisoners, and now potentially north Koreans. They dint want Russian mothers weeping in Moscow or st Petersburg , bad for PR


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> ... They dint want more Russian mothers weeping in Moscow or st Petersburg , bad for PR


Yup


----------



## daftandbarmy

Meanwhile, in South Africa… 

Unnamed NATO customer orders Rheinmetall’s 155mm artillery ammunition​
NEWSARMYPRESS RELEASES
ByColton Jones
Aug 5, 2022




*German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall announced just this week that a NATO customer has just placed an order with the Group’s South African subsidiary Rheinmetall Denel Munition to supply 155mm ammunition from its tried-and-tested Assegai product line.*
According to a press release from Rheinmetall, awarded in July, the contract is worth a figure in the upper-two-digit million-euro range.



			https://www.military.africa/2022/08/rheinmetall-nets-155-mm-assegai-ammunition-order/


----------



## BdaDug

CBH99 said:


> We should learn from what happened between the FSB, Putin & company, and the military when it comes to reports on capabilities not being taken very seriously from one or more of those parties.
> 
> The FSB was tasked with writing some reports to senior military leadership & decision makers, but told it was more for academic purposes than anything else.
> 
> And culturally, the report was supposed to essentially conclude that Russia had the weapons & equipment to successfully conduct ‘X Operation’ and also successfully deal with any consequences as a result of that operation, re humanitarian crisis, medical crisis, etc
> 
> So FSB writes the reports and sends them up, not knowing the senior leadership is planning on invading Ukraine.  The officers who write the reports do as they are told - be reasonably accurate, but conclude that Russia has the resources to succeed. It is, after all, an academic exercise more than anything…
> 
> Well, turns out those reports were taken quite seriously by senior planners, who planned and orchestrated the invasion of Ukraine.  Only to be surprised that what the reports said they were capable of, and what they actually _were_ capable of, didn’t quite line up…
> 
> 
> This war is FULL of lessons to be soaked up by every country on Earth right now.
> 
> The usefulness of inexpensive suicide/armed drones.  The importance of small drones in finding the enemy.  How important modern ATGM’s are, as well as modern AA systems.  Defense in depth, the importance of robust logistics, and a solid reminder that some enemies actually shoot back with equal firepower, etc


Curious civvie ... any chance the CAF leadership overstates its effective capabilities to the political leadership or do you think the PMO knows the true state of our forces??


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

BdaDug said:


> Curious civvie ... any chance the CAF leadership overstates its effective capabilities to the political leadership or do you think the PMO knows the true state of our forces??


More relevant question:

"Do you think the PMO knows cares about the true state of our forces?"


----------



## Good2Golf

suffolkowner said:


> I can't understand the need for Russia to recruit from prisons, surely they have enough people that have served previously that could be recruited.



‘Russia’ isn’t recruiting from prisons… 😉

Wagner is recruiting from prisons.

There is no tangible connection between Wagner and Russia…well, I mean, other than Vlad out partying with some of his boys, including Dmitri Utkin…


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/umjeum


----------



## daftandbarmy

BdaDug said:


> Curious civvie ... any chance the CAF leadership overstates its effective capabilities to the political leadership or do you think the PMO knows the true state of our forces??


----------



## MilEME09

An interesting development on the front, that brings up a lot of questions 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1556290433575256066


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> An interesting development on the front, that brings up a lot of questions
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1556290433575256066


Noteworthy if true and raises obvious questions about launch platform. Anything that enhances Ukraine’s ability to blow up active EM spectrum emission sources is a good thing.


----------



## MilEME09

brihard said:


> Noteworthy if true and raises obvious questions about launch platform. Anything that enhances Ukraine’s ability to blow up active EM spectrum emission sources is a good thing.


Indeed, if ground launched from a improvised or unknown system, it's range would be limited but if air launched it would mean we have adapted Ukrainian jets for western munitions which would represent a game changer in the air war


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> ‘Russia’ isn’t recruiting from prisons… 😉
> 
> Wagner is recruiting from prisons.
> 
> There is no tangible connection between Wagner and Russia…well, I mean, other than Vlad out partying with some of his boys, including Dmitri Utkin…
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/umjeum


THAT guy wouldn't make out of "filtration" ....


----------



## dapaterson

MilEME09 said:


> Indeed, if ground launched from a improvised or unknown system, it's range would be limited but if air launched it would mean we have adapted Ukrainian jets for western munitions which would represent a game changer in the air war



Or UKR is flying a/c other than MiGs.


----------



## MilEME09

Add to war crimes putting heads on sticks....didn't think I'd see that in the modern age, I've cut the first part of the tweet to hide the image it self


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1556298025814921216


----------



## Prairie canuck

MilEME09 said:


> An interesting development on the front, that brings up a lot of questions
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1556290433575256066


Curious that despite damage to the metal and paint that the printing remains pristine. Just sayin..


----------



## YZT580

Prairie canuck said:


> Curious that despite damage to the metal and paint that the printing remains pristine. Just sayin..


and supposedly photographed where they landed yet that fin has definitely been cut off, not separated by explosion


----------



## KevinB

brihard said:


> Noteworthy if true and raises obvious questions about launch platform. Anything that enhances Ukraine’s ability to blow up active EM spectrum emission sources is a good thing.


While HARM wasn’t specified, we did admit to supplying the UKR with Anti-Radiation missiles a few packages ago.  

The most interesting aspect of this is the only launch platforms that are acknowledged to launch HARM are;
F-4G Phantom ‘Wild Weasel’ 
EA-6B 
F-16 
F-15 
F/A-18 
E/A-18G 
Tornado 
EuroFighter 
F-35 (external pylon only). 

I suspect it can also be launched by MQ-9 Reaper as well (it has the weight to carry one internally) and multiple on external hard points.


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> While HARM wasn’t specified, we did admit to supplying the UKR with Anti-Radiation missiles a few packages ago.
> 
> The most interesting aspect of this is the only launch platforms that are acknowledged to launch HARM are;
> F-4G Phantom ‘Wild Weasel’
> EA-6B
> F-16
> F-15
> F/A-18
> E/A-18G
> Tornado
> EuroFighter
> F-35 (external pylon only).
> 
> I suspect it can also be launched by MQ-9 Reaper as well (it has the weight to carry one internally) and multiple on external hard points.


Perhaps the 4 Grey Eagle drones that were given to Ukraine were adapted to carry the AGM-88?


----------



## brihard

Prairie canuck said:


> Curious that despite damage to the metal and paint that the printing remains pristine. Just sayin..


I’m less skeptical on this one… There’s no real ‘gotcha’, nothing to embarrass anyone with. It’s not like the generality that America is providing Ukraine with advanced modern weapons is a secret. I’m more just curious on the technical side, potentially that platform question.


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> Indeed, if ground launched from a improvised or unknown system, it's range would be limited but if air launched it would mean we have adapted Ukrainian jets for western munitions which would represent a game changer in the air war





MiG 29s have been adapted to NATO weapons in the past by the Poles, Germans, Slovaks and Romanians.



> MiG-29G/MiG-29GT* East German MiG-29 / 29UB upgraded to NATO standards*, with work done by MiG Aircraft Product Support GmbH (MAPS), a joint venture company form between MiG Moscow Aviation Production Association and DaimlerChrysler Aerospace in 1993.[165]
> 
> MiG-29AS/MiG-29UBS (MiG-29SD*)Slovak Air Force performed an upgrade on their MiG-29/-29UB for NATO compatibility.* Work is done by RAC MiG and Western firms, starting from 2005. *The aircraft now has navigation and communications systems from Rockwell Collins, an IFF system from BAE Systems, new glass cockpit features multi-function LC displays and digital processors and also fitted to be integrate with Western equipment in the future*. However, the *armaments of the aircraft remain unchanged*. 12 out of 21 of the entire MiG-29 fleet were upgraded and had been delivered as of late February 2008.[166]
> 
> MiG-29 _Sniper_
> *MiG-29 Sniper Upgrade planned for the Romanian Air Force by DASA, Aerostar and Elbit.* DASA was responsible for program management, technical support and the test flight program (together with Elbit), Elbit was responsible for developing the avionics package, while Aerostar implemented the upgrades on the aircraft. The first flight occurred on 5 May 2000.[167][168] *The upgrades included the installation of a new modular multi role computer based on the MIL-STD-1553B data bus, upgraded western avionics, new radio stations, hybrid navigation system composed of an inertial navigation system and coupled with GPS receiver, identification system, two 152 mm × 203 mm (6.0 in × 8.0 in) MFCDs, a Head-Up Display equipped with UFCP front control panel, new RWR, new HOTAS and new ADC. The addition of a new radar and the integration of western weapons while maintaining Russian ones were also expected.*[169] The program halted due to various reasons, along with the retiring of Romanian MiG-29s in 2003, the Romanian Government deciding to further invest in the MiG-21 LanceR program.[170]



Polish MiG-29 jet Fighters Modernised – Fulcrums Compliant with the NATO Standards​DEFENCE24 07.11.2014 12:45










						null
					

null




					defence24.com
				







> *Military Aviation Works No. 2 based in Bydgoszcz have finished the modernisation process of 16 MiG-29 fighters used by the Polish Air Force. The programme has been carried out together with the Israel Aerospace Industries  company, and had a value of PLN 126 million. The aircraft have been fitted with modern avionics, mission computers and NATO-standards-compliant communications suite.*
> 
> On 4th November Military Aviation Works No. 2 have been a place where a hand-off ceremony regarding the last modernised MiG-29UB took place. The event has been attended by the deputy head of the Armament Inspectorate, Jan Woźniak. Soon the aircraft will join the rest of the modernised fighters, which are at disposal of the 23rd AB in Minsk Mazowiecki. The base is a home for 13 MiG-29A single-seaters and 3 MiG-29UB two-seater jets.
> 
> Modernisation which is implemented by the Bydgoszcz-based Military Aviation Works No. 2 has been contracted in August 2011 and it aimed at digitization of the management system, achieving full compatibility with NATO management systems and improvement of the pilot’s work conditions.
> 
> Changes included, _inter alia, _installation of a two-band radio, better positioning system and modernised aerodynamic computer. The new avionics suite is equipped with MIL-Std-1533B data bus, mission computer which facilitates mission planing and post-flight analysis. However, the change which is the most visible is the new data visualisation system, consisting of a 5"x4" MFD and modern HUD display in the cockpit.
> 
> End of the modernisation programme does not mean that the equipment of the Polish MiG-29 fighters, which are intensively used also in NATO Baltic Air Policing missions, is to remain unchanged. The Armament Inspectorate has started a market analysis within the scope of equipping the aircraft with IFF Mark XIIA systems, which would be compliant with the latest NATO standard - “mode 5”.




The Romanians have also modernized MiG-21s to NATO standards









						Romania to Give its Modernized MiGs to Ukraine - Novinite.com - Sofia News Agency
					

Ukraine is frantically looking for fighter jets against Russia's invasion, and its pilots are literally begging for more planes. News from Romania could provide a partial solution, though perhaps not ideal, to the shortage of fighter jets in Ukraine, according to The Drive.



					www.novinite.com
				




The Slovakians seem to be ready to donate their MiG-29s to Ukraine.









						Ukraine Situation Report: Slovakia Ready To Make A Deal For Its MiG-29s
					

As new weapon systems continue to arrive in Ukraine, it is still in need of additional fighters and Slovakia says it is ready to make a deal.




					www.thedrive.com
				




Even if the actual complete aircraft have not been transferred to Ukraine the necessary components exist as well as the knowledge base.

Back to "My Grandfather's Axe" - the Ukrainians could continue to fly the same 73 tail numbers they started the war with so long as they receive replacement and  upgrade parts from their allies.


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> MiG 29s have been adapted to NATO weapons in the past by the Poles, Germans, Slovaks and Romanians.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> null
> 
> 
> null
> 
> 
> 
> 
> defence24.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Romanians have also modernized MiG-21s to NATO standards
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Romania to Give its Modernized MiGs to Ukraine - Novinite.com - Sofia News Agency
> 
> 
> Ukraine is frantically looking for fighter jets against Russia's invasion, and its pilots are literally begging for more planes. News from Romania could provide a partial solution, though perhaps not ideal, to the shortage of fighter jets in Ukraine, according to The Drive.
> 
> 
> 
> www.novinite.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Slovakians seem to be ready to donate their MiG-29s to Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine Situation Report: Slovakia Ready To Make A Deal For Its MiG-29s
> 
> 
> As new weapon systems continue to arrive in Ukraine, it is still in need of additional fighters and Slovakia says it is ready to make a deal.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedrive.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Even if the actual complete aircraft have not been transferred to Ukraine the necessary components exist as well as the knowledge base.
> 
> Back to "My Grandfather's Axe" - the Ukrainians could continue to fly the same 73 tail numbers they started the war with so long as they receive replacement and  upgrade parts from their allies.


Slovakian weapons systems remain unchanged, Romanian program cancelled, and we have seen no indication the German migs made it to Ukraine. So we still have no answers


----------



## McG

Fun video, but I suspect they are not moving this tightly in any area that Russian artillery can reach.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1555610620770271235


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Slovakian weapons systems remain unchanged, Romanian program cancelled, and we have seen no indication the German migs made it to Ukraine. So we still have no answers


Maybe we don’t need answers?


----------



## MilEME09

So at the same time as the AGM88 photos we get this from the Ukrainian armed forces, subtle hints here


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1556289056639619072


----------



## Kirkhill

McG said:


> Fun video, but I suspect they are not moving this tightly in any area that Russian artillery can reach.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1555610620770271235



Aren't there occasions where it is worth taking the tactical risk of bunching?  I'm thinking that if there was a gap in surveillance might it not be worthwhile to close up and make a dash to relocate from cover to cover.  The alternative might be a longer time of exposure and a straggling column which could be defeated in packets.  In either event there is a risk that the unit you wanted to relocate doesn't make it intact to its new FUP.


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> Alot of controversy today over amnesty international's report of ukrainian forces actions in the war so far. I haven't read it my self yet so I won't comment in the report it self yet but Russia is jumping all over it as justification. Though AI Ukraines branch wasn't consulted apparently which raises questions
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1555383943662272512
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1555272472240463873


More aftermath - head of AI's UKR wing resigns ....








						Amnesty regrets ‘distress and anger’ caused by Ukraine report
					

Report alleging Ukraine military violations of international law caused head of Amnesty Ukraine to resign in protest.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## BdaDug

CBH99 said:


> So the orders-in-council pushed things forward so they could be completed within a matter of hours, instead of the usual manner of months?
> 
> So really…the government CAN move fast on things when they choose to, and the senior bureaucrats CAN push things through.  It’s just a matter of willpower.
> 
> Let’s take a moment to remember this the next time the government drags something out with minimal results to show in the end.  They CAN choose to ignore the red tape they implement for themselves…


Its much easier to move quickly when there aren't reams of existing procedures and forms with approvals to work through.  No applicable bureacracy, no problem to move quickly.


----------



## The Bread Guy

CBH99 said:


> ... So really…the government CAN move fast on things when they choose to, and the senior bureaucrats CAN push things through.  It’s just a matter of political willpower ...


Just fine-tuning that a titch - and yes, for sure.

Meanwhile ...








						SSU notifies former deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence of suspicion of treason (video)
					






					ssu.gov.ua


----------



## GR66

KevinB said:


> While HARM wasn’t specified, we did admit to supplying the UKR with Anti-Radiation missiles a few packages ago.
> 
> The most interesting aspect of this is the only launch platforms that are acknowledged to launch HARM are;
> F-4G Phantom ‘Wild Weasel’
> EA-6B
> F-16
> F-15
> F/A-18
> E/A-18G
> Tornado
> EuroFighter
> F-35 (external pylon only).
> 
> I suspect it can also be launched by MQ-9 Reaper as well (it has the weight to carry one internally) and multiple on external hard points.


Could it possibly be adapted for launch from a helicopter?


----------



## MilEME09

Suddenly I feel better about our kit issues


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1556268154518659072


----------



## KevinB

GR66 said:


> Could it possibly be adapted for launch from a helicopter?


I suppose it could, but I think that platform limits of a helicopter would make for a unlikely (and unsuccessful) method.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Just in case you were wondering what some ancient, perma-stoned Rockers had to offer about international affairs well beyond their 'wheelhouse' 

Pink Floyd's co-founder accuses Biden of 'huge crime' in Ukraine. Hear why​
CNN's Michael Smerconish joins New Day to talk about his wide-ranging interview with Pink Floyd co-founder Roger Waters, where they discuss the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the ongoing tensions between China and Taiwan.









						Video: Pink Floyd's co-founder accuses Biden of 'huge crime' in Ukraine. Hear why - CNN Video
					

CNN's Michael Smerconish joins New Day to talk about his wide-ranging interview with Pink Floyd co-founder Roger Waters, where they discuss the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the ongoing tensions between China and Taiwan.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Skysix

Big Interview with Ukrainian general Serhii Kryvonos • WarTranslated
					

Interview with gen. Kryvonos was made by Mark Solonin. Translation kindly provided by Volodymyr: https://twitter.com/VolodyaTretyak Full video in Russian: Translation:   Did Ukrainian leadership oversleep the beginning of the war? Interviewer (I): Generally speaking, it appears to ordinary...




					wartranslated.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

Not just Europe, but we can start there....


Ukraine war 'has exposed the truth about Europe': Polish PM​
The war in Ukraine has shown the world the true face of Russia, but it "has also exposed the truth about Europe," the Polish prime minister has said, adding that "many European leaders allowed themselves to be lured by Vladimir Putin and are in shock today."

"The war in Ukraine has exposed the truth about Russia,” Mateusz Morawiecki said in an op-ed piece published by the euractiv.com website on Monday.

"Those who refused to see that Putin’s state has imperialist tendencies today have to face the fact that in Russia, the demons of the 19th and 20th centuries were revived: nationalism, colonialism, and totalitarianism," he added.









						Ukraine war 'has exposed the truth about Europe': Polish PM
					

The war in Ukraine has shown the world the true face of Russia, but it "has also exposed the truth about Europe," the Polish prime minister has said, adding that "many European leaders allowed themselves to be lured by Vladimir Putin and are in shock today."



					www.polskieradio.pl


----------



## KevinB

Nuke plant comes under attack as fighting rages in Ukraine
					

Europe's largest nuclear power plant is on the front lines of the war in Ukraine and fears of a major catastrophe are growing after parts of the sprawling plant were struck by rockets. The war grinds on with Russia making slow advances in the east.




					www.courthousenews.com


----------



## Skysix

dapaterson said:


> Or UKR is flying a/c other than MiGs.











						Ukraine’s Uniquely Upgraded MiG-29 Fulcrum Is Back
					

The one-off MiG-29MU2 upgraded fighter jet made a rare appearance coinciding with Ukraine’s Air Force Day.




					www.thedrive.com


----------



## Skysix

Russia has suffered 70,000 to 80,000 casualties in Ukraine in just 6 months, Pentagon says
					

Six months into the war, Russia is suffering approximately 13,000 casualties a month and its armor and artillery capabilities are being strained.




					taskandpurpose.com


----------



## CBH99

BdaDug said:


> Curious civvie ... any chance the CAF leadership overstates its effective capabilities to the political leadership or do you think the PMO knows the true state of our forces??


I think the PM is well aware of the CAF's current state.

The problem is the PM's priorities all revolve around being woke & progressive, and the current state of some equipment - combined with world affairs - requires the military to prioritize other things.

When he asks the CAF leadership what's available to send to Ukraine, and the answer is 4 M777 systems...I'm sure someone told him we only have 37 in service.

Or when we send 3000 rounds + Carl G's... someone should be telling him how many we have in total, how that donation affects us, etc.

Does the CAF grand stand its capabilities to the PM?  Probably to a small extent.

But I also think the PM doesn't care all that much.  He seems much more focused on the good PR that comes from offering troops to anybody who needs them (hoping nobody actually will, ofcourse.)




KevinB said:


> Nuke plant comes under attack as fighting rages in Ukraine
> 
> 
> Europe's largest nuclear power plant is on the front lines of the war in Ukraine and fears of a major catastrophe are growing after parts of the sprawling plant were struck by rockets. The war grinds on with Russia making slow advances in the east.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.courthousenews.com


FFS…

This isn’t the first time this nuclear plant has been struck with artillery shells.  Nor the second, nor the third…

Knock it the f**k off, Russia. 


You don’t just risk a nuclear catastrophe (again) that’ll damage the entire planet in one way or another, but you risk also cutting electricity to major parts of Europe.

Like I said before, I don’t think the Russians will want the land even if they do somehow win in the end, if it’s reminiscent of the wastelands Fallout 3.

There is scorch earth, and then there is this.  Surely whoever negotiates the odd ceasefire & humanitarian corridors on both sides could pick up the phone when it comes to _this_


Russia.  F**k off.


----------



## lenaitch

CBH99 said:


> When he asks the CAF leadership what's available to send to Ukraine, and the answer is 4 M777 systems...I'm sure someone told him we only have 37 in service.


I'm surprised he didn't offer all 37.  'What do we need them for?  We're nice - and peacekeepers (or convenors)'.


----------



## daftandbarmy

lenaitch said:


> I'm surprised he didn't offer all 37.  'What do we need them for?  We're nice - and peacekeepers (or convenors)'.



Which shows on his Twitter feed today:

"“The Government of Canada is committed to making peacekeeping more effective and inclusive. Through the Elsie Initiative for Women in Peace Operations, we are working with like-minded partners to increase the participation of uniformed women in peacekeeping operations. Through The Vancouver Principles, we are also preventing the recruitment and use of child soldiers in peacekeeping missions."


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1556992907118362625


----------



## brihard

There have been several reasonably large explosions at the Novofedorivka airfield in Crimea today, about 200km from the front lines. Various fighters and bombers are believed to be based there. Lots of video- smoke everywhere, multiple and in a couple cases simultaneous explosions, very likely secondaries.

No solid word on cause yet. Alternate explanations from the Russian side of fuel or munitions accidents. Nothing heard yet from Ukraine claiming responsibility. Notably this airfield is well beyond the range of most weapons Ukraine has or is at least known to have.

No real damage estimates yet. If the munitions bunkers went up, definitely potential for a number of expensive aircraft dead on the ramp. At a minimum, a major airfield’s capabilities are likely degraded for a least a little while, and a fair bit of fuel and munitions are blown up.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

brihard said:


> No solid word on cause yet. Alternate explanations from the Russian side of fuel or munitions accidents.


Is this like their explanation of the Moskava? 

"It wasn't sunk! it just... intercepted a Neptune....with it's magazine.... and then there was a fire on board...."


----------



## Kirkhill

Some interesting targeting today








__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1556893167013748736




__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wk3lag


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wk2utr


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wk2js2


----------



## Kirkhill

> Missiles with 200-300 km range are already in our arsenal and are being used





__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wk3597


----------



## Kirkhill

The Ukrinform "official" report.









						Explosions reported near Russian military airbase in Crimea
					

The "authorities" in Crimea have confirmed explosions near Novofedorivka, where a Russian military airbase is located, with ambulances rushing to the scene. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> More aftermath - head of AI's UKR wing resigns ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Amnesty regrets ‘distress and anger’ caused by Ukraine report
> 
> 
> Report alleging Ukraine military violations of international law caused head of Amnesty Ukraine to resign in protest.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.aljazeera.com



More aftermath


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wk3mnx

Be interesting to see if there is a knock-on effect on the NGO community at large after this war.

Neutrality seems to be going out of fashion.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:


> More aftermath
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wk3mnx
> 
> Be interesting to see if there is a knock-on effect on the NGO community at large after this war.


So far, branch bosses are stepping down - it will be interesting to see if the ripples go further.


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> The Ukrinform "official" report.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Explosions reported near Russian military airbase in Crimea
> 
> 
> The "authorities" in Crimea have confirmed explosions near Novofedorivka, where a Russian military airbase is located, with ambulances rushing to the scene. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net




The Russian "official" report.  More careless smokers.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wk44nv

I guess they prefer to look incompetent rather than weak.


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> So far, branch bosses are stepping down - it will be interesting to see if the ripples go further.



National Peacekeepers Day feels kind of archaic right now.

But maybe it is just the Canadian version of Russia's careless smokers.  You keep telling the locals what they need to hear.... right up until the tanks show up in Baghdad.


----------



## Good2Golf

Kirkhill said:


> The Russian "official" report.  More careless smokers.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wk44nv
> 
> I guess they prefer to look incompetent rather than weak.



Well, if there are FAB 3000M-46 rolling around, it's not unreasonable...

Image_110_1_.png


----------



## NavyShooter

Kirkhill said:


> The Russian "official" report.  More careless smokers.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wk44nv
> 
> I guess they prefer to look incompetent rather than weak.



HIgherMARS?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Kirkhill said:


> National Peacekeepers Day feels kind of archaic right now.


Pearsonian peacekeeping is definitely something relegated to the history books. Our folly in Mali demonstrated we have no desire for modern "Peace making" that is required in the 21st century. 
I seriously doubt there will be any peace to keep in Ukraine when this is all over. It will either be annihilation or an infinite proxy war. No in-between.


----------



## McG

Kirkhill said:


> I guess they prefer to look incompetent rather than weak.


Incompetence is weak.


----------



## Kirkhill

McG said:


> Incompetence is weak.


True that!


----------



## Kirkhill

Incompetent vs Incapable?


----------



## McG

And a lack of competent infantry continues to hamper Russian progress. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1556876034443714563


----------



## Kirkhill

I wonder if the Post-Pelosi Taiwan Tantrum by China is/was an effort to take the US's eyes of the Ukraine ball.









						'We're not going to take the bait:' DoD downplays China escalation around Taiwan - Breaking Defense
					

The Pentagon’s top policy official also refuted reports claiming that US officials now believe China could invade Taiwan by 2024.




					breakingdefense.com
				




If we look at the entire Russo-Chinese effort as one continuous front with points of contact at Ukraine and Taiwan then 

US supporting Ukraine
Russia losing in Ukraine due to US missiles

China raises temperature in Taiwan
Pelosi goes to Taiwan
China send planes and missiles over Taiwan

US responds by releasing longer range missiles to Ukrainians reminding the Russians and the Chinese that things can get worse.

Meanwhile Russia plays nuclear games at Enerhodar in Zaporozhzhia.

And, in response - rare routine visits of American subs to Faslane.  I leave uncommented the oxymoron there.









						More American nuclear submarines arrive in Scotland
					

Two more American submarines arrived on the River Clyde in Scotland this week on routine visits, marking a significant increase in allied submarine activity.




					ukdefencejournal.org.uk
				




Also, I thought I saw a report about a US boomer surfacing in the Pacific recently - just for show.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:


> The Russian "official" report.  More careless smokers.


----------



## McG

Kirkhill said:


> rare routine


Those adjectives don’t normally pair.


----------



## Skysix

If not longer range HIMARS (my bet) a rapid HIMARS penetration raid to within range in a loosely populated/defended portion of FEBA or Ukranian 5th column activity or drone airstrikes. Of the 4, longer range missiles seems the most likely.


----------



## NavyShooter

Option 5 - circa WW2 style SAS LRDG airport strike by UKR Special Forces?









						Raid on Sidi Haneish Airfield - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Kirkhill

NavyShooter said:


> Option 5 - circa WW2 style SAS LRDG airport strike by UKR Special Forces?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Raid on Sidi Haneish Airfield - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ⁷



I'm going to go with Occam.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wk3597


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wk85g3


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wk4e27


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wk8gow


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wk8euv


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wk2utr

r/ukraine - Russian ammunition depot hit 150km (93 miles) from the front line


----------



## Kirkhill

Good deals on real estate in Crimea.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wk8nke


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wk7hep


----------



## Retired AF Guy

This article from the Moscow Times is reporting one dead and several injured. The article also a has link to video showing an explosion taken as viewed from one of the local beaches. Queue some excited beachgoers.


----------



## YZT580

if they succeeded in hitting the flight line this one will be a game changer.  Nothing in occupied UKRAINE is out of reach which will require them to relocate their fleet as well.  logistics just got a whole lot more complicated.


----------



## KevinB

Those missiles go further than 300km…


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Oooh do Rostov and Belgorod next!


----------



## Retired AF Guy

I was wondering how long it would take before he made an appearance.



> Steven Seagal, a Hollywood actor who received Russian citizenship in 2016, visited the site of a recent attack on a prisoner of war camp in Olenivka in eastern Ukraine, according to information posted Tuesday on the Telegram channel of pro-Kremlin TV host Vladimir Solovyov.
> 
> Seagel, who is a special envoy for Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, also met with Ukrainian prisoners of war, including servicemen from the Azov Regiment involved in the defense of Mariupol. The pro-Russian actor spoke to the prisoners and “asked them uncomfortable questions,” according to Solovyov.
> 
> Rest of story with photos and commentary (In Russian) can be found here.


----------



## Mills Bomb

Kirkhill said:


> Good deals on real estate in Crimea.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wk8nke



Take a look at the listings at the top that are "3 minutes old".

Close your browser. Go have a beer. Come back 20 mins later.

It's the same listings still "3 minutes old".

Not entirely sure who's getting played, but something is suspicious. Nice propaganda effect but reddit is becoming more and more of a hive mind in my opinion and even popular posts with lots of cheerleading need to be questioned, sometimes it's pretty obvious something is going on like in this case. There's so much misinformation pumping going on there it's very difficult to find fair discussions. Most likely these are just a random assortment of listings, some old, some new, but not a panic of people all listing at once.

Random other example; go to r/politics and it's a hive mind of Lefties in all the posts and replies, then go to r/conservative and it's a hive mind of Trumper's in posts and replies. There's few balanced subreddits remaining for mature balanced discussions.


----------



## CBH99

daftandbarmy said:


> Which shows on his Twitter feed today:
> 
> "“The Government of Canada is committed to making peacekeeping more effective and inclusive. Through the Elsie Initiative for Women in Peace Operations, we are working with like-minded partners to increase the participation of uniformed women in peacekeeping operations. Through The Vancouver Principles, we are also preventing the recruitment and use of child soldiers in peacekeeping missions."
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1556992907118362625


-  How are we preventing the recruitment & use of child soldiers? 

Like what, exactly, are we doing to prevent this?  (Other than wagging the finger, ofcourse...)


- Our like minded partners put their military muscle into NATO operations, not UN 'poverty troops standing around kinda/sorta trying to maybe help poverty problems.'

The French (I know  they aren't a NATO member) basically steamrolled the insurgent army over the course of a few weeks, with 2500 troops and an enhanced fighter squadron conducting bombing missions & CAS.

The UN?  The largest peacekeeping mission in the world is in Mali, with around 15,000 troops (Recently beat out by the mission in Sudan, also pegged at around 15,000.)

How's progress looking there, UN?

Also rich coming from the guy who refused to extend our mission in Mali while the Romanians arrived & got set up.

My point?  Our like minded partners aren't doing UN missions alongside Kenya or Pakistan.


-   I am all for equality between men and women.  I genuinely believe the most qualified person should get the job. 

The only time somebody's gender really matters is in the bathroom and the bedroom,  as far as I'm concerned.

 You know who doesn't give a shit about the female to male ratio on an incoming UN peacekeeper deployment?   The same dickheads that use child soldiers...

That's right, The same dickheads that didn't care about our wagging of the finger...


( Gosh I just want to punch in the mouth every time he opens it... I find myself infuriated some days that somebody so stupid even exists.  Rant off...)


----------



## brihard

KevinB said:


> Those missiles go further than 300km…


Any informed speculation on what they hit them with?


----------



## KevinB

brihard said:


> Any informed speculation on what they hit them with?


Maybe.  Need to check something is OS  first.


----------



## CBH99

Kirkhill said:


> The Russian "official" report.  More careless smokers.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wk44nv
> 
> I guess they prefer to look incompetent rather than weak.


I genuinely don't know which is worse when it comes to military operations...

Looking weak isn't good, people will walk all over ya.  Soooooo...is looking stupid legitimately the better option?

 Talk about giving yourself shitty choices.


----------



## Quirky

CBH99 said:


> Talk about giving yourself shitty choices.



That’s the norm in Canadian elections.


----------



## dapaterson

brihard said:


> Any informed speculation on what they hit them with?





			https://img.gifglobe.com/grabs/montypython/MontyPythonAndTheHolyGrail/gif/GmRJ41UOLQqQ.gif


----------



## MilEME09

brihard said:


> Any informed speculation on what they hit them with?


So a Ukrainian minister came out and said it was with a capability only Ukraine has. Based on this, as well as the fact there were two massive explosions followed by secondaries, the working theory, I and a few others have is this was the combat debut of the Ukrainian produced Hrim-2/Grom SRBM with a range of 500km, 1000lb warhead.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1557061408340287490


----------



## Eaglelord17

CBH99 said:


> -  How are we preventing the recruitment & use of child soldiers?
> 
> Like what, exactly, are we doing to prevent this?  (Other than wagging the finger, ofcourse...)


Don't forget we employ child soldiers (I personally was one for a while), so it is a bit of the pot calling the kettle black.


----------



## dapaterson

The prohibition on child soldiers forbids employment, not enrolment, before age 18.

The NDA includes specific language to that effect.


----------



## Skysix

Hmmm


----------



## Maxman1

dapaterson said:


> The prohibition on child soldiers forbids employment, not enrolment, before age 18.
> 
> The NDA includes specific language to that effect.



And the definition of child soldier is under 15.


----------



## Maxman1

Retired AF Guy said:


> I was wondering how long it would take before he made an appearance.



Hope he didn't have to use his "enhanced interrogation techniques"


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1557231105123782656I imagine this will be all T62 and BMP1 equiped.


----------



## Good2Golf

Aren’t they into the T-55s now?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

McG said:


> I imagine this will be all T62 and BMP1 equiped.


T62s? In this economy?


----------



## McG

They may have to crack into the BTR-152 and T-55.


----------



## KevinB

brihard said:


> Any informed speculation on what they hit them with?


I am pretty sure it’s ATACMS SLEP. 

LocMart, Wiki and a few other sites have recently redacted some information on the upgrade of the ATACMS and development of PrSM.  
  There used to be some OS info about conversion of ATACMS but some of that is now missing.  But the long and short of it is like PrSM the range barrier was from INF Treaty and with that removed the missiles can go a lot further than published.  









						MGM-140 ATACMS - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org


----------



## Maxman1

McG said:


> They may have to crack into the BTR-152 and T-55.



I wouldn't be surprised if they broke out the IS-3s and T-10s.


----------



## CBH99

Skysix said:


> Hmmm


I think this is bang on, and what a few of us have speculated on here openly.  

Now that Ukraine has blunted much of Russia’s land combat power, thinned out its air power, and sank a few ships… conventionally, Russia isn’t much of a threat anymore to the west. 

Yes they can do some real damage, and if properly focused _could_ seize ‘a’ part of Ukraine in the short term.  But they aren’t steamrolling through Europe anytime soon. 

If the west wanted to, and didn’t want to spark a nuclear confrontation (which I now realize is quite possible given the mindset of Russian leadership) we could push the Russians back to their original borders. 

Heck Europe could do it without substantial American help, in theory.  (Obviously not with current western leadership being what it is.)


Is this a good way to keep the Russians bogged down in a war they’ve sworn they won’t let themselves lose, and to deplete their equipment & economy so as to allow the US to focus more on the pacific theatre?

It takes 1 of our 2 key adversaries out of play.  It not only takes them out of play for right now, but it bogs down all of Russian society for at least a generation to come…all while sacrificing Ukrainian blood, and not NATO’s.

If China vs Taiwan happens, the west can now focus its assets to that situation without worrying about fighting 2 large campaigns simultaneously…


----------



## Kirkhill

NavyShooter said:


> Option 5 - circa WW2 style SAS LRDG airport strike by UKR Special Forces?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Raid on Sidi Haneish Airfield - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org



It seems I was foolish to bet on Occam in Ukraine.

Neither the Russians nor the Ukrainians are fans of simplicity.


----------



## Spencer100

CBH99 said:


> I think this is bang on, and what a few of us have speculated on here openly.
> 
> Now that Ukraine has blunted much of Russia’s land combat power, thinned out its air power, and sank a few ships… conventionally, Russia isn’t much of a threat anymore to the west.
> 
> Yes they can do some real damage, and if properly focused _could_ seize ‘a’ part of Ukraine in the short term.  But they aren’t steamrolling through Europe anytime soon.
> 
> If the west wanted to, and didn’t want to spark a nuclear confrontation (which I now realize is quite possible given the mindset of Russian leadership) we could push the Russians back to their original borders.
> 
> Heck Europe could do it without substantial American help, in theory.  (Obviously not with current western leadership being what it is.)
> 
> 
> Is this a good way to keep the Russians bogged down in a war they’ve sworn they won’t let themselves lose, and to deplete their equipment & economy so as to allow the US to focus more on the pacific theatre?
> 
> It takes 1 of our 2 key adversaries out of play.  It not only takes them out of play for right now, but it bogs down all of Russian society for at least a generation to come…all while sacrificing Ukrainian blood, and not NATO’s.
> 
> If China vs Taiwan happens, the west can now focus its assets to that situation without worrying about fighting 2 large campaigns simultaneously…


China should make the Siberia play right now.  Forget Taiwan it gives them nothing (computer chips yes) But I understand Taiwan is in the national psyche so they must have it first. But Siberia gives them everything they need  for the next 50 years.  The CCP should offer Russia an army worth of tanks and equipment for free access to Siberia. And in a generation they will own the whole thing as we have seen in the past.   Plus transportation of the 100,000 NK's lol  The west would never go to war over that.  Plus then the west has to pump in even more to Ukraine to counteract.  But what do I know?


----------



## brihard

Possibly another deep strike today, this time in the vicinity of Chonhar (Chongar? Seen it spelled both ways). Not clear what got hit but there’s a lot of smoke visible for a great distance.

Significantly, Chonhar has two colocated bridges connecting Kherson to Crimea. If these bridges are cut, that will eliminate a much shorter ‘cutting the corner’ route from the mainland to Crimea, forcing traffic either via the Kerch Strait bridge, or via the narrow peninsula southeast of Kherson. I’ve got nothing to suggest these bridges were hit, but it appears to be coming within Ukraine’s capabilities to do so.

EDIT TO ADD: There may have already been unrelated fires there; I’m seeing that cited elsewhere. Take this post as worth very little unless there’s corroboration such as visible damage to a viable target.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1557384123144192000


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Spencer100 said:


> China should make the Siberia play right now.  Forget Taiwan it gives them nothing (computer chips yes) But I understand Taiwan is in the national psyche so they must have it first. But Siberia gives them everything they need  for the next 50 years.  The CCP should offer Russia an army worth of tanks and equipment for free access to Siberia. And in a generation they will own the whole thing as we have seen in the past.   Plus transportation of the 100,000 NK's lol  The west would never go to war over that.  Plus then the west has to pump in even more to Ukraine to counteract.  But what do I know?


China is going to do that anyways, except they are going to buy it all at bargain basement prices, when the Russians are desperate for cash and items, they will sell the rights to resources in the area and for Chinese companies to exploit them and access them. The Chinese will employ a token amount of Russians but do most of it themselves. By the time the Russians realize the pickle they are in, it will be to late. The Chinese will pull out some ancient map/tome showing the area was theirs all along.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

El Cheapo arty strike/bombing raid


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1556347364146806785


----------



## Kirkhill

Colin Parkinson said:


> China is going to do that anyways, except they are going to buy it all at bargain basement prices, when the Russians are desperate for cash and items, they will sell the rights to resources in the area and for Chinese companies to exploit them and access them. The Chinese will employ a token amount of Russians but do most of it themselves. By the time the Russians realize the pickle they are in, it will be to late. The Chinese will pull out some ancient map/tome showing the area was theirs all along.



Perhaps the Chinese Communist Party's problem with Taiwan is not the island but the Kuomintang - the Chinese Nationalist Party, a member of the International Democratic Union









						International Democrat Union - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




Like Donald Trump the Kuomintang has never ceded to the Chinese Communist Party.  It claims legitimacy over the entirety of China.  And some westerners agree with it.

Like the CCP the KMT is a revolutionary party - founded by Sun Yat Sen and succeeded by Chiang Kai Shek. Mao Tse Tung forced Chiang Kai Shek off the mainland but he never forced Chiang to surrender.

Taiwan isn't a threat.  The Kuo Min Tang is a threat.


----------



## RangerRay

In recent years, the Kuomintang has been more friendly with China since reunification is their raison d’être. As Chinese nationalists, they have been advocates of “one country, two systems”. 

The governing Democratic Progressive Party is a Taiwanese nationalist party, that leans towards independence from China, not reunification.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

RangerRay said:


> In recent years, the Kuomintang has been more friendly with China since reunification is their raison d’être. As Chinese nationalists, they have been advocates of “one country, two systems”.
> 
> The governing Democratic Progressive Party is a Taiwanese nationalist party, that leans towards independence from China, not reunification.


I think the shit show that is Macau and Hong Kong should dissaude them of ever believing "one country, two systems" will be honoured in good faith by the CCP. 

Much like the DPR and LPR in Ukraine, its colonial expansionism under the guise of "Liberation"


----------



## RangerRay

rmc_wannabe said:


> I think the shit show that is Macau and Hong Kong should dissaude them of ever believing "one country, two systems" will be honoured in good faith by the CCP.
> 
> Much like the DPR and LPR in Ukraine, its colonial expansionism under the guise of "Liberation"


I should have prefaced that with “until recently”.   

Based on my reading, the Kuomintang still hopes to one day reunite with Beijing. The DPP has give up on that.


----------



## Kirkhill

RangerRay said:


> I should have prefaced that with “until recently”.
> 
> Based on my reading, the Kuomintang still hopes to one day reunite with Beijing. The DPP has give up on that.



The question then becomes who rules in Beijing?  The CCP or the KMT?  The DPP is happy to rule in Taipei.


----------



## Spencer100

Colin Parkinson said:


> China is going to do that anyways, except they are going to buy it all at bargain basement prices, when the Russians are desperate for cash and items, they will sell the rights to resources in the area and for Chinese companies to exploit them and access them. The Chinese will employ a token amount of Russians but do most of it themselves. By the time the Russians realize the pickle they are in, it will be to late. The Chinese will pull out some ancient map/tome showing the area was theirs all along.


That is what I totally meant.  Just payment in tanks etc.   I don't get why people don't see this.  I'm under the impression there are areas already over 50% Han in Siberia now.  It is all part of the under reporting of things Chinese.  Belt and Road, Made in China 2025 etc.   Will Africa wake up one day and think maybe the Europeans were not so bad (bit over the top but you get the point) Some the countries are going to be in debt to China forever.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Elsewhere the Belt and Road stuff is not doing so well and there is only so much the Chinese can do if those countries "nationalise" the projects. Russia has to be more carefully, China is in a position to repossess projects if Russia gets cold feet.


----------



## brihard

Spencer100 said:


> That is what I totally meant.  Just payment in tanks etc.   I don't get why people don't see this.  I'm under the impression there are areas already over 50% Han in Siberia now.  It is all part of the under reporting of things Chinese.  Belt and Road, Made in China 2025 etc.   Will Africa wake up one day and think maybe the Europeans were not so bad (bit over the top but you get the point) Some the countries are going to be in debt to China forever.


Russia will never willingly hand over territory to another country. Particularly not its biggest rival in its part of the world. China is ascendant and Russia probably quite rightly fears them. I struggle to think of what kind of back door deal is in place right now to prevent China taking advantage of the decimation of Russia’s military. Though maybe they simply have a long mutual understanding that territorial conquest by one into the other means nukes. China invading Siberia made for a fun Tom Clancy novel a couple decades back, but I don’t believe it represents a realistic threat. They both have more to gain by expanding outwards than attempting to expand into each other, and China has arguably mastered commercial conquest.


----------



## brihard

The graduation photos for the airfield in Crimea have been posted, and it’s pretty fantastic. Russia lost a lot of aircraft. Various photos and comparisons in thread.

The analysis also suggests some pretty precise strikes on different facilities. Sergei is one hell of a careless smoker.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1557440583878299651


----------



## The Bread Guy

brihard said:


> ... Chonhar (Chongar? Seen it spelled both ways) ....


Magic of Cyrillic script.  Generally speaking, if the letter is г, Ukrainians transliterate that into H , Russians into G.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

brihard said:


> Russia will never willingly hand over territory to another country. Particularly not its biggest rival in its part of the world. China is ascendant and Russia probably quite rightly fears them. I struggle to think of what kind of back door deal is in place right now to prevent China taking advantage of the decimation of Russia’s military. Though maybe they simply have a long mutual understanding that territorial conquest by one into the other means nukes. China invading Siberia made for a fun Tom Clancy novel a couple decades back, but I don’t believe it represents a realistic threat. They both have more to gain by expanding outwards than attempting to expand into each other, and China has arguably mastered commercial conquest.


It will be subterfuge that the Chinese will use to take over, buying up rights, land resource access, building private roads, having their own workers. At first they pay for it and the Kremlin will be happy. By the time the politicians in Moscow start take the threat seriously, it will be to late and they risk antagonising another rival. If the Federation starts cracking and fighting occurs, the Chinese might send in "Peacekeepers" to protect Han Citizens and "ensure stability on our border to best protect the economic interests of both countries".


----------



## Spencer100

brihard said:


> Russia will never willingly hand over territory to another country. Particularly not its biggest rival in its part of the world. China is ascendant and Russia probably quite rightly fears them. I struggle to think of what kind of back door deal is in place right now to prevent China taking advantage of the decimation of Russia’s military. Though maybe they simply have a long mutual understanding that territorial conquest by one into the other means nukes. China invading Siberia made for a fun Tom Clancy novel a couple decades back, but I don’t believe it represents a realistic threat. They both have more to gain by expanding outwards than attempting to expand into each other, and China has arguably mastered commercial conquest.


I don't think they give territory directly to China.  More give of Colin's example. Access to resources for companies and people.  They are doing some of that now.  More conquest by stealth.  and the CCP can have Little Green Men (TM) turned on the Russians.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Colin Parkinson said:


> It will be subterfuge that the Chinese will use to take over, buying up rights, land resource access, building private roads, having their own workers ...


AKA "soft power, Africa version".


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Colin Parkinson said:


> China is going to do that anyways, except they are going to buy it all at bargain basement prices, when the Russians are desperate for cash and items, they will sell the rights to resources in the area and for Chinese companies to exploit them and access them. The Chinese will employ a token amount of Russians but do most of it themselves. By the time the Russians realize the pickle they are in, it will be to late. *The Chinese will pull out some ancient map/tome showing the area was theirs all along.*


The Russian Czars in their expansion east ended up acquiring territory that the Chinese historically considered theirs. Over the years this has resulted in several conflicts between the two countries with the most notable ones between Czarist/Chinese forces, in the 17th century, followed by further conflicts between Chinese/Russian Communists forces in 1929. These conflicts continued into the later Communist era and in 1969 resulted in a seven month long period of tension, that included in a shoot-out between Chinese/Russian border guards over an island in the middle of the Ussuri (Wusuli) River  that almost resulted in out right war between the two Communist giants.


----------



## MilEME09

So two developments, first russia is deploying balloon fake S300s. Second Ukraine just hit the Russian airfield in Belarus..


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1557381938742263808

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1557494749682188289

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1557511968826789888


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Good to see Ukraine reaching out to Russia and Belarus. Very neighborly of them to help with their demilitarization


----------



## KevinB

Admittedly the video of the RuF air filled SAM systems was pretty comical.


----------



## PuckChaser

What's old is new again. If you have to have SAM systems permanently in a location, why not have a bunch of fake ones around to force Ukraine to use expensive missiles that they have a finite number of. Cheap solution.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1557435923649990657


----------



## KevinB

PuckChaser said:


> What's old is new again. If you have to have SAM systems permanently in a location, why not have a bunch of fake ones around to force Ukraine to use expensive missiles that they have a finite number of. Cheap solution.


But don’t put out a video of your fakes blowing in the wind…


----------



## brihard

I badly need to see an S-400 wacky waving arm inflatable tube man.


----------



## MilEME09

brihard said:


> I badly need to see an S-400 wacky waving arm inflatable tube man.


Don't worry  with our budget, that will be our AD


----------



## Spencer100

MilEME09 said:


> Don't worry  with our budget, that will be our AD


Well it would be an upgrade.  Wacky waving arm tube man would be more than the current zero.


----------



## Good2Golf

brihard said:


> I badly need to see an S-400 wacky waving arm inflatable tube man.


----------



## brihard

Good2Golf said:


> View attachment 72432


I didn’t know they had career managers too?


----------



## dapaterson

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1557550993830825984


----------



## Kilted

brihard said:


> Russia will never willingly hand over territory to another country. Particularly not its biggest rival in its part of the world. China is ascendant and Russia probably quite rightly fears them. I struggle to think of what kind of back door deal is in place right now to prevent China taking advantage of the decimation of Russia’s military. Though maybe they simply have a long mutual understanding that territorial conquest by one into the other means nukes. China invading Siberia made for a fun Tom Clancy novel a couple decades back, but I don’t believe it represents a realistic threat. They both have more to gain by expanding outwards than attempting to expand into each other, and China has arguably mastered commercial conquest.


Unfortunately, I don't think that we can hope on Isengard fighting Mordor.


----------



## PuckChaser

Found this interesting video trying to define why the HIMARS missiles are so effective at penetrating Russian AD. Hoping some of the AD folks on here can comment, it makes sense to my Signaler mind.


----------



## MilEME09

Crabs returning to Ukrainian beaches, nature is healing


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1557584750516264963


----------



## dapaterson

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1557485847754248192


----------



## ueo

Colin Parkinson said:


> Elsewhere the Belt and Road stuff is not doing so well and there is only so much the Chinese can do if those countries "nationalise" the projects. Russia has to be more carefully, China is in a position to repossess projects if Russia gets cold feet.


Canada maybe?


----------



## Maxman1

daftandbarmy said:


> Just in case you were wondering what some ancient, perma-stoned Rockers had to offer about international affairs well beyond their 'wheelhouse'
> 
> Pink Floyd's co-founder accuses Biden of 'huge crime' in Ukraine. Hear why​
> CNN's Michael Smerconish joins New Day to talk about his wide-ranging interview with Pink Floyd co-founder Roger Waters, where they discuss the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the ongoing tensions between China and Taiwan.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Video: Pink Floyd's co-founder accuses Biden of 'huge crime' in Ukraine. Hear why - CNN Video
> 
> 
> CNN's Michael Smerconish joins New Day to talk about his wide-ranging interview with Pink Floyd co-founder Roger Waters, where they discuss the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the ongoing tensions between China and Taiwan.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com


----------



## Maxman1

rmc_wannabe said:


> Pearsonian peacekeeping is definitely something relegated to the history books.



When I was on National Sentry Program earlier this summer, I visited the Hong Kong Memorial (a friend's father was there in the Royal Rifles, and I found his name on the wall), and on the way back I stopped at the Peacekeeping Monument. Mostly because two of the cute tour guides who were usually at the War Memorial were there. Hopefully they didn't hear me telling Pearson to go to Hell after reading a quote from him.


----------



## Good2Golf

Maxman1 said:


> When I was on National Sentry Program earlier this summer, I visited the Hong Kong Memorial (a friend's father was there in the Royal Rifles, and I found his name on the wall), and on the way back I stopped at the Peacekeeping Monument. Mostly because two of the cute tour guides who were usually at the War Memorial were there. Hopefully they didn't hear me telling Pearson to go to Hell after reading a quote from him.


He wasn’t all bad.  Pearson was the guy who got American-supplied nuclear weapons approved for use by Canada from 1963 until Pere Trudeau took over as PM and rescinded the nuclear weaponized status of Canada.  Clearly wasn’t enough to keep him from being awarded the Nobel peace prize.


----------



## CBH99

ueo said:


> Canada maybe?


I love the idea of China investing billions of dollars to build infrastructure here, with us then nationalizing it & using it ourselves.  Pure genius really!

The trick is finding that sweet spot between defaulting on making the payments we owe for them building the stuff, and nationalizing (aka commandeering) it.


But as a general concept of having our frienemy pay for things to be built here, and thus saving us money?  Go for it...

"Noooooo, you shouldn't have been so kind!  Like really, you really shouldn't have..."


----------



## CBH99

Spencer100 said:


> That is what I totally meant.  Just payment in tanks etc.   I don't get why people don't see this.  I'm under the impression there are areas already over 50% Han in Siberia now.  It is all part of the under reporting of things Chinese.  Belt and Road, Made in China 2025 etc.   Will Africa wake up one day and think maybe the Europeans were not so bad (bit over the top but you get the point) Some the countries are going to be in debt to China forever.


I’m of the theory that all countries will be in debt either to each other, or the World Bank, indefinitely.  It’s a critical component of ‘the plan’ and keeps the larger world economic system rolling along.  

As some countries take on more debt, other entities make money from the interest, which they inevitably then spend, etc etc 


I do chuckle when I hear politicians talk about the national debt come election time.  “If we don’t do this or that, our grand children’s grandchildren will be stuck paying it!”

Well…assuming the financial system is somehow the same as it is today…

They would pay their taxes.  The government would use its revenue, combined with smart investments & intelligence spending practices, to pay off enough debt so that the interest payments don’t cause us to default, etc.  So yes, they will be stuck paying it, in a way…

The governments of the world aren’t going to just stop collecting taxes altogether just because the national debt is paid off.  I doubt most would even lower taxes tbh - look at all that available cash they now have for vanity projects & fortify their power with.  

Countries not owing each other money or resources doesn’t sound like the kind of thing the World Bank would want, nor the big players of the world (aka financiers of the world bank)


----------



## The Bread Guy

CBH99 said:


> I love the idea of China investing billions of dollars to build infrastructure here, with us then nationalizing it & using it ourselves.  Pure genius really!
> 
> The trick is finding that sweet spot between defaulting on making the payments we owe for them building the stuff, and nationalizing (aka commandeering) it ...


Not like people aren't asking ...








						China will pay for rail into Ring of Fire - KWG
					

KWG Resources expects it will have a deal with the state-owned Bank of China to fund the entire cost of their proposed railway corridor to the Ring of Fire by…




					www.thesudburystar.com
				



Meanwhile, THAT's the secret!








						Enduring Ukraine resistance linked to US HIMARS, reflective belts
					

Working like a charm.




					www.duffelblog.com


----------



## McG

Today, both Canadian and British military want you to know more about Ukraine whacking Russian air bases in response to Putin's invasion.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1558088083463196674

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1557959178337001472


----------



## Kirkhill

CBH99 said:


> I love the idea of China investing billions of dollars to build infrastructure here, with us then nationalizing it & using it ourselves.  Pure genius really!
> 
> The trick is finding that sweet spot between defaulting on making the payments we owe for them building the stuff, and nationalizing (aka commandeering) it.
> 
> 
> But as a general concept of having our frienemy pay for things to be built here, and thus saving us money?  Go for it...
> 
> "Noooooo, you shouldn't have been so kind!  Like really, you really shouldn't have..."



Having seen some plants built in both the US and Canada that involved Chinese investors that would get a big "Not on your life" from me.

The plants come with knock-off components with edges that slice hands,  no source of spare parts, non-existent english manuals (not even Chinglish), designs prepared for the 95th percentile Chinese, by Chinese engineers ignorant of North American practice and laws, and installed by Chinese technicians not trained to North American standards and supervised by unilingual supervisors.  And that is for juice, fish, soy and soup factories.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Kirkhill said:


> Having seen some plants built in both the US and Canada that involved Chinese investors that would get a big "Not on your life" from me.
> 
> The plants come with knock-off components with edges that slice hands,  no source of spare parts, non-existent english manuals (not even Chinglish), designs prepared for the 95th percentile Chinese, by Chinese engineers ignorant of North American practice and laws, and installed by Chinese technicians not trained to North American standards and supervised by unilingual supervisors.  And that is for juice, fish, soy and soup factories.



Watch this documentary 









						American Factory - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## GR66

Boy those Russians can't seem to catch a break. 

The Defence Blog website is reporting "Russian radar blows up at military air base in Belarus"

"The Belarus Ministry of Defense confirmed on Wednesday evening that one of the vehicles in the military area near Homel caught fire, though it said it was a result of an inspection run."

Seems that the vehicle fire caused "the Russian 92N6 fire control and engagement radar, known as Grave Stone by NATO, blew up in a huge explosion at Zyabrovka air base on the night of August 11."


----------



## brihard

GR66 said:


> Boy those Russians can't seem to catch a break.
> 
> The Defence Blog website is reporting "Russian radar blows up at military air base in Belarus"
> 
> "The Belarus Ministry of Defense confirmed on Wednesday evening that one of the vehicles in the military area near Homel caught fire, though it said it was a result of an inspection run."
> 
> Seems that the vehicle fire caused "the Russian 92N6 fire control and engagement radar, known as Grave Stone by NATO, blew up in a huge explosion at Zyabrovka air base on the night of August 11."


I hate it when I forget the regular oil change and my radar trucks explode.


----------



## NavyShooter

I'd say this can't be real...but...if you find the video, you'll see that the UAV bomb (just to the right of my red outline) makes a rather resounding...boom...in the video.

Those appear to be anti-tank mines stacked on the front left sponson area...and while it might just be a handy spot to transport them...I suspect that the 'extra ERA' option is reality.


----------



## Good2Golf

NavyShooter said:


> I'd say this can't be real...but...if you find the video, you'll see that the UAV bomb (just to the right of my red outline) makes a rather resounding...boom...in the video.
> 
> Those appear to be anti-tank mines stacked on the front left sponson area...and while it might just be a handy spot to transport them...I suspect that the 'extra ERA' option is reality.
> 
> View attachment 72465


I don’t even think MacGyver would use ATMs as ERA…


----------



## brihard

Good2Golf said:


> I don’t even think MacGyver would use ATMs as ERA…


Yeah but SerGeiver is a drunken idiot.


----------



## OldSolduer

Good2Golf said:


> I don’t even think MacGyver would use ATMs as ERA…


I really think if those were set off the tank would be severely damaged.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

My guess is they are transporting them, why have ERA on a fender? Note the other side has nothing.


----------



## Skysix

Hmmm. I wonder what would happen if Wagner (and its backers) decided it was done with dying for Putin and not getting paid until the contract was filled and decided to correct that situation ..









						Shrouded in secrecy for years, Russia’s Wagner Group opens up
					

The mysterious network of mercenaries is embracing an ever-public image as the war on Ukraine drags on.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## lenaitch

The Bread Guy said:


> Not like people aren't asking ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> China will pay for rail into Ring of Fire - KWG
> 
> 
> KWG Resources expects it will have a deal with the state-owned Bank of China to fund the entire cost of their proposed railway corridor to the Ring of Fire by…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thesudburystar.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Meanwhile, THAT's the secret!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Enduring Ukraine resistance linked to US HIMARS, reflective belts
> 
> 
> Working like a charm.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.duffelblog.com


The article is a little dated.  KWG is still a player in the RoF but no longer a major one, and they seem to be now talking about some kind of rail tramway rather than a traditional heavy rail.   They've proposed a lot of things in the past few years.


----------



## MilEME09

Hey buddy it's your turn for fire watch...I mean POW.

Dont you hate it when the rest of your unit bugs out and doesn't wake you?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1558253586261458944


----------



## Maxman1

Good2Golf said:


> He wasn’t all bad.  Pearson was the guy who got American-supplied nuclear weapons approved for use by Canada from 1963 until Pere Trudeau took over as PM and rescinded the nuclear weaponized status of Canada.  Clearly wasn’t enough to keep him from being awarded the Nobel peace prize.



Now that I think about it, it was more of a "oh, fuck off" in response to a quote on how wonderful peacekeeping is.


----------



## KevinB

Colin Parkinson said:


> My guess is they are transporting them, why have ERA on a fender? Note the other side has nothing.


My guess is they are clueless and figured it will help.   
   I mean based on some of the discoveries in Ukraine, most ERA boxes have been filled with either Rubber or Sand in Russian tanks…


----------



## McG

Unlike ERA panels and HEAT-type projectiles, blast AT mines contain enough explosive content to make a mess of a tank. Using them as armour over the tracks won’t do anything to mitigate a top attacking shaped charge (because there is nothing to penetrate there) but it may amplify an inconsequential hit into a mobile kill with crew casualties.


----------



## MilEME09

McG said:


> Unlike ERA panels and HEAT-type projectiles, blast AT mines contain enough explosive content to make a mess of a tank. Using them as armour over the tracks won’t do anything to mitigate a top attacking shaped charge (because there is nothing to penetrate there) but it may amplify an inconsequential hit into a mobile kill with crew casualties.


Well we know Russian troops aren't the smartest, this isn't by accident but a by-prodyct of the Russian education system, a corrupt conscription system that takes from the poorest regions of Russia, but people in well off families can bribe a doctor for about $5000 to right that they are medically unfit. Resulting in poor, unmotivated conscripts who really are doing it because they have no choice and stay because it's their only chance to actually get out if poverty


----------



## MilEME09

Ukrainian technical ingenuity strikes again, this time as a field modification. Ukrainian technicians ripped a MT-12 AT gun off its carriage and mounted it to a MT-LB. As a tech I am at awe over the technical ability required to pull this off in the field.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1558489817616457731


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> Ukrainian technical ingenuity strikes again, this time as a field modification. Ukrainian technicians ripped a MT-12 AT gun off its carriage and mounted it to a MT-LB. As a tech I am at awe over the technical ability required to pull this off in the field.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1558489817616457731


What happens when rhe bureaucrats get out of the way....

And you give the troops free toys to play with

I'm assuming the accountants have the donated Russian gun and vehicle on the books at a Zero Dollar value.

Like our divested kit.


----------



## Kirkhill

Some activity from the Joint Expeditionary Force community

Making waves distinct from those of NATO and the EU

Poland joining JEF countries Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Denmark in trying to get the EU to stop issuing tourist visas to Russians.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wo4wn7

And Estonia (Tallinn) and Finland (Helsinki) have taken up their historic roles as fortresses controlling the passage from the Baltic to St Petersburg and Novgorod.  Together with Denmark (Elsinore) they bottle up the Baltic and deny Russia access to the North Atlantic by that route.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wo2h26


----------



## Kirkhill

Interesting video of a recent strike on the Antonovskiy Bridge at Kherson.

Unfortunately it was via the Express so the feed is mucked up with ads.
Edit: found a better video.

But.

The interesting bit is the SAM response to the attack.  They seem to be having some success against the incoming rounds.  But the incoming side seems to prevail.

[




__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wo1bz5


----------



## Kirkhill

There seems to have been one effect









						Following Ukrainian strikes hitting Kherson bridges, invaders fleeing to Melitopol
					

After the successful strikes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the bridges over the Dnipro River in Kherson region, the "leadership" of the occupation forces are withdrawing from the area to another occupied town of Melitopol. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				




This would seem to confirm this report - the superlatives might be premature.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wns1pg

Edit - additional reports


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wo6qfb


----------



## CBH99

Skysix said:


> Hmmm. I wonder what would happen if Wagner (and its backers) decided it was done with dying for Putin and not getting paid until the contract was filled and decided to correct that situation ..
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Shrouded in secrecy for years, Russia’s Wagner Group opens up
> 
> 
> The mysterious network of mercenaries is embracing an ever-public image as the war on Ukraine drags on.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.aljazeera.com


I’m just blown away they made such a solid comeback after the USMC decided to simplify the situation in theatre a few years back.


…I should reword that…


I’m surprised Wagner has made a notable comeback after the USMC blew _them_ away a few years back


----------



## Kirkhill

The strikes in Crimea and Kherson certainly seem to be having an effect on Kerch.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wo98xx

If true - the strike on the airfield was on Tuesday.  That tailback is 5 days old.  I wonder how they are doing for fuel.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1558897986331152386


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> Some activity from the Joint Expeditionary Force community
> 
> Making waves distinct from those of NATO and the EU
> 
> Poland joining JEF countries Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Denmark in trying to get the EU to stop issuing tourist visas to Russians.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wo4wn7
> 
> And Estonia (Tallinn) and Finland (Helsinki) have taken up their historic roles as fortresses controlling the passage from the Baltic to St Petersburg and Novgorod.  Together with Denmark (Elsinore) they bottle up the Baltic and deny Russia access to the North Atlantic by that route.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wo2h26



More on the situation



> Blue Spear 5G SSM land-to-sea missile systems from Israel. With a maximum range of 290 kilometers (approximately 180.2 miles), the Blue Spear missile system can reach targets across both the Gulf of Finland and the Baltic Sea, and can also be used to strike both moving and stationary targets at sea in all weather conditions, day or night. Likewise, it can autonomously navigate to its target zone, and zero in on targets on its own once it gets in range to do so.











						Estonia’s New Anti-Ship Missiles: Crucial Naval Capability and Overdue Strategic Shift to Sea
					

Earlier this month, the Estonian Center for Defense Investment (ECDI) announced the purchase of Blue Spear 5G SSM land-to-sea missile systems from Israel.



					balticsecurity.eu
				












						New anti-ship missile deal will bolster Finland and Estonia’s coastal defences against Russian warships
					

The two countries will sign a deal that would potentially sever Moscow’s link with its fleet in the Baltic Sea in case of conflict




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				






Helsinki and Tallinn block St Petersburg.  Stockholm plays backstop.  Copenhagen is safety.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

CBH99 said:


> I’m just blown away they made such a solid comeback after the USMC decided to simplify the situation in theatre a few years back.
> 
> 
> …I should reword that…
> 
> 
> I’m surprised Wagner has made a notable comeback after the USMC blew _them_ away a few years back


They just recruit more people from a broken economy, keeping the economy in some areas down makes for good recruiting. I suspect that Moscow is even less caring of some regions, than Ottawa was of the west in the 1980-90's


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Don't reverse into buildings as they may have basements









						Военный Осведомитель
					






					t.me


----------



## CBH99

Colin Parkinson said:


> They just recruit more people from a broken economy, keeping the economy in some areas down makes for good recruiting. I suspect that Moscow is even less caring of some regions, than Ottawa was of the west in the 1980-90's


But that’s just it…

Supposedly Wagner was providing the Kremlin with elite, ex-SF guys who didn’t give a remote f**k about morals, to go do what would take the conventional army a lot more bodies & effort to do.  

Or go places the Russian army couldn’t be deployed to, due to optics, legality, etc.  


Like Blackwater in the sense of it being a PMC, but without the hassle of politics getting in the way…

But now?  Those guys are dead, ironically enough the few survivors taken out by ‘upper management.’

The recruiting pool of current ex-SF guys will be fairly small with most of them saying “hell no…” or also being dead.  



So Wagner may recruit from the poor areas & offer a better deal than the Russian army.   But are they going to be as capable as Wagner was once suspected of being?  I’m thinking not…

Which is great news for everybody, tbh.


----------



## MilEME09

I think we got called out....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1558977526403420160


----------



## rmc_wannabe

MilEME09 said:


> I think we got called out....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1558977526403420160


----------



## NavyShooter

Hearing rumbles of leadership pulling themselves back across certain broken bridges...leaving troops behind.

Interesting if true....

More interesting would be if the UKR forces are able to move forward and collect those left behind with minimal cost...and collect their kit and equipment?  

Maybe that was their plan for the 'southern offensive' all along?

Everyone was expecting tanks/APC's to roll forward and attack.  Maybe that was never the plan at all?  The plan that seems to be working right now is:
1. Say there's going to be an offensive in the south.
2. RUS responds by prepping that front with new troops and surges BTGs into the area
3. HIMARS arrives - destroys ammo dumps in depth
4. Say there's going to be an offensive in the south
5. RUS continues to push troops forward
6. Cut bridges behind troops
7. Wait a bit until RUS troops start running out of food/ammo
8. Say there's going to be an offensive in the south.
9. RUS leadership 'tactically repositions' across what's left of the bridges
10. Not enough functional bridges, barges or pontoons to extract the troops and their gear
11. HIMARS on leadership who left the troops behind (yet to come?)
12. Roll forward and accept surrender of starving/no gas/no bullets RUS troops that were left behind by their leadership (yet to come?)

Thoughts?

Then UKR gets  to consolidate behind the river - absorb and repair the captured equipment, continue to HIMARS, and dig in for the fall, prep for either a frozen/winter offensive, or a post-spring-mud offensive?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

NavyShooter said:


> Hearing rumbles of leadership pulling themselves back across certain broken bridges...leaving troops behind.
> 
> Interesting if true....
> 
> More interesting would be if the UKR forces are able to move forward and collect those left behind with minimal cost...and collect their kit and equipment?
> 
> Maybe that was their plan for the 'southern offensive' all along?
> 
> Everyone was expecting tanks/APC's to roll forward and attack.  Maybe that was never the plan at all?  The plan that seems to be working right now is:
> 1. Say there's going to be an offensive in the south.
> 2. RUS responds by prepping that front with new troops and surges BTGs into the area
> 3. HIMARS arrives - destroys ammo dumps in depth
> 4. Say there's going to be an offensive in the south
> 5. RUS continues to push troops forward
> 6. Cut bridges behind troops
> 7. Wait a bit until RUS troops start running out of food/ammo
> 8. Say there's going to be an offensive in the south.
> 9. RUS leadership 'tactically repositions' across what's left of the bridges
> 10. Not enough functional bridges, barges or pontoons to extract the troops and their gear
> 11. HIMARS on leadership who left the troops behind (yet to come?)
> 12. Roll forward and accept surrender of starving/no gas/no bullets RUS troops that were left behind by their leadership (yet to come?)
> 
> Thoughts?
> 
> Then UKR gets  to consolidate behind the river - absorb and repair the captured equipment, continue to HIMARS, and dig in for the fall, prep for either a frozen/winter offensive, or a post-spring-mud offensive?


If this is the plan: encirclement using geography, IO, and long range munitions; then I think the Ukrainians will have one of the most tactically savvy feints in history under their belts.


----------



## Good2Golf

NavyShooter said:


> Hearing rumbles of leadership pulling themselves back across certain broken bridges...leaving troops behind.
> 
> Interesting if true....
> 
> More interesting would be if the UKR forces are able to move forward and collect those left behind with minimal cost...and collect their kit and equipment?
> 
> Maybe that was their plan for the 'southern offensive' all along?
> 
> Everyone was expecting tanks/APC's to roll forward and attack.  Maybe that was never the plan at all?  The plan that seems to be working right now is:
> 1. Say there's going to be an offensive in the south.
> 2. RUS responds by prepping that front with new troops and surges BTGs into the area
> 3. HIMARS arrives - destroys ammo dumps in depth
> 4. Say there's going to be an offensive in the south
> 5. RUS continues to push troops forward
> 6. Cut bridges behind troops
> 7. Wait a bit until RUS troops start running out of food/ammo
> 8. Say there's going to be an offensive in the south.
> 9. RUS leadership 'tactically repositions' across what's left of the bridges
> 10. Not enough functional bridges, barges or pontoons to extract the troops and their gear
> 11. HIMARS on leadership who left the troops behind (yet to come?)
> 12. Roll forward and accept surrender of starving/no gas/no bullets RUS troops that were left behind by their leadership (yet to come?)
> 
> Thoughts?
> 
> Then UKR gets  to consolidate behind the river - absorb and repair the captured equipment, continue to HIMARS, and dig in for the fall, prep for either a frozen/winter offensive, or a post-spring-mud offensive?


Not unreasonable to think of such a plan.   How many RUAF troops are estimated to be in the sliver of Kherson-eastwards and North of the Dnipro River?


----------



## MilEME09

Good2Golf said:


> Not unreasonable to think of such a plan.   How many RUAF troops are estimated to be in the sliver of Kherson-eastwards and North of the Dnipro River?


Estimated 25k Russian troops on the west bank


----------



## YZT580

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1557435923649990657





MilEME09 said:


> Estimated 25k Russian troops on the west bank


stating the obvious but that is one hell of a lot of people to keep supplied using rubber boats and bailey bridges


----------



## MilEME09

YZT580 said:


> stating the obvious but that is one hell of a lot of people to keep supplied using rubber boats and bailey bridges


It's estimated with the bridges lost the Russians would need 26 hours in a day to keep all formations supplied fully. Since a day is only 24 hours, they are already hurting


----------



## Kirkhill

Some interesting commentary via Trent Telenko

1.  The effect of a well placed charge


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1559190073517670400
2. The value of obfuscation


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1559191383696605184
3. Some thoughts on the state of play with respect to Russian artillery logistics - barrels and bullets (long thread)


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1559013688958455813


----------



## brihard

Kirkhill said:


> Some interesting commentary via Trent Telenko
> 
> 1.  The effect of a well placed charge
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1559190073517670400
> 2. The value of obfuscation
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1559191383696605184
> 3. Some thoughts on the state of play with respect to Russian artillery logistics - barrels and bullets (long thread)
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1559013688958455813


I read his ‘most important logistical thread’. It was a modestly interesting guesstimate about Russian artillery barrels getting shot out through use and had little real source data on firing volumes to calculate off of. Trent makes some quite interesting threads sometimes, but he can go a bit overboard on talking up the significance of some things too.


----------



## MilEME09

brihard said:


> I read his ‘most important logistical thread’. It was a modestly interesting guesstimate about Russian artillery barrels getting shot out through use and had little real source data on firing volumes to calculate off of. Trent makes some quite interesting threads sometimes, but he can go a bit overboard on talking up the significance of some things too.


He makes a lot of guesstimates without much data, more so from inferences. Such as RU arty at its peak firing an estimated 60k rounds in a week


----------



## rmc_wannabe

This war has been a poker match with everyone else guessing what the other person has in their hand before its played. 

It's folly to go off previous plays and how many chips they have in the stack. 

Guesstimation is poor strategy


----------



## KevinB

brihard said:


> I read his ‘most important logistical thread’. It was a modestly interesting guesstimate about Russian artillery barrels getting shot out through use and had little real source data on firing volumes to calculate off of. Trent makes some quite interesting threads sometimes, but he can go a bit overboard on talking up the significance of some things too.





MilEME09 said:


> He makes a lot of guesstimates without much data, more so from inferences. Such as RU arty at its peak firing an estimated 60k rounds in a week


I responded to his Twitter thread - as someone was asking for a better guess.

There hasn't been any really good data on RU Arty production for quite some time, OS or Classified.
   Storage capacity is known - but that is about it.
Part of the issue is the Russian system under Putin is hard to audit.

Let's say Plant A claims it makes 2Mt of shells a year.
  They get paid for 2Mt shells, but only makes 1.5Mt
 The RU Army logs 2Mt

Of the 1.5Mt, they also siphon off 33% or .5Mt to sell to other countries etc.
 So now the RU Army has logged 2Mt, but only has 1Mt (and someone has a new villa or yacht) 

Of the actual 1Mt that the RU Army does have, what is the QA/QC and how many effective functioning rounds do they have?


_________________________________________________________

What is known is that with the firing rate and the capabilities to replace barrels etc - that they are running through somewhere between 22 and 45 new barrel a day equivalent.
    They don't have the capability to make that many barrels a day anyone, nor the capacity to replace that many barrels a day anymore.

Eventually the RU Arty is going to run out of functional guns -- most likely before they run out of munitions...


----------



## brihard

Barrel wear- is it mostly just an accuracy thing? If they’re still mass-shelling grid squares, does it actually matter a great deal? Or are we talking about barrels exploding?


----------



## Colin Parkinson

brihard said:


> Barrel wear- is it mostly just an accuracy thing? If they’re still mass-shelling grid squares, does it actually matter a great deal? Or are we talking about barrels exploding?


Both it seems. Plus other parts break, carriages, recoil systems, even if the don't crack (C3 enters Chat) parts wear out and likley there are not enough gun plumbers or parts to keep up with the maintenance.


----------



## brihard

Colin Parkinson said:


> Both it seems. Plus other parts break, carriages, recoil systems, even if the don't crack (C3 enters Chat) parts wear out and likley there are not enough gun plumbers or parts to keep up with the maintenance.


Right. Yeah, I guess there are a lot of other moving parts too- barrel wear is sort of a proxy for wear and tear generally. You blow something up a thousand times, things will break…


----------



## McG

brihard said:


> Barrel wear- is it mostly just an accuracy thing? If they’re still mass-shelling grid squares, does it actually matter a great deal? Or are we talking about barrels exploding?


Barrel wear initially leads to reduced accuracy, which means you have to fire more rounds to hit your target. Ineffectually hammering a grid square is more wasted effort than value. Eventually, barrel wear can see catastrophic barrel failure in which the gun will be lost and the crew will probably take casualties.


----------



## Kilted

MilEME09 said:


> Estimated 25k Russian troops on the west bank


Does Ukraine have the capability to handle that many POW?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kilted said:


> Does Ukraine have the capability to handle that many POW?



If I was Ukraine, I wouldn't plan on taking them all prisoner. 

Zero prisoners is a good number IMHO


----------



## Good2Golf

daftandbarmy said:


> If I was Ukraine, I wouldn't plan on taking them all prisoner.
> 
> Zero prisoners is a good number IMHO


You mean like if they’re still fighting, they’re still combatants, right?

There should be some ‘what if’ planning for some large scale PW handling, for certain.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Good2Golf said:


> You mean like if they’re still fighting, they’re still combatants, right?
> 
> There should be some ‘what if’ planning for some large scale PW handling, for certain.



Dude, you don't 'get' Paratroopers, do you


----------



## Kilted

Good2Golf said:


> You mean like if they’re still fighting, they’re still combatants, right?
> 
> There should be some ‘what if’ planning for some large scale PW handling, for certain.


What if they all surrendered for "tactical reasons?"


----------



## brihard

Good2Golf said:


> You mean like if they’re still fighting, they’re still combatants, right?
> 
> There should be some ‘what if’ planning for some large scale PW handling, for certain.


Yup. Get them back somewhere safe, treat them humanely, keep them under relatively decent conditions, and make sure they get a steady flow of info about just how shitty things are on the front lines. Make sure they know that, as PWs, they go home when it’s over. Some will still cause some grief but most will be content to wait it out.


----------



## Good2Golf

daftandbarmy said:


> Dude, you don't 'get' Paratroopers, do you


I wasn’t quite sure where you were heading…you jumpers are a funny lot.  I was just mindful that UKR must remain LOAC-compliant at all times.


----------



## GR66

daftandbarmy said:


> Dude, you don't 'get' Paratroopers, do you


You mean like this?


----------



## Kirkhill

Re the TV Tower - as the man sez.  A different opinion.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1559201874078846976


----------



## daftandbarmy

Good2Golf said:


> I wasn’t quite sure where you were heading…you jumpers are a funny lot.  I was just mindful that UKR must remain LOAC-compliant at all times.



Yes, of course


----------



## FJAG

Kirkhill said:


> Re the TV Tower - as the man sez.  A different opinion.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1559201874078846976


Okay. My question is, who owns the drone filming this and if it was a Russian one, why was it there and zeroing in on this tower just as a "loitering munition" comes in.






😉


----------



## MilEME09

brihard said:


> Yup. Get them back somewhere safe, treat them humanely, keep them under relatively decent conditions, and make sure they get a steady flow of info about just how shitty things are on the front lines. Make sure they know that, as PWs, they go home when it’s over. Some will still cause some grief but most will be content to wait it out.


Maybe thats a factor into the delayed offensive? If even a third are captured, that's thousands of PoWs.


----------



## Kat Stevens

McG said:


> Barrel wear initially leads to reduced accuracy, which means you have to fire more rounds to hit your target. Ineffectually hammering a grid square is more wasted effort than value. Eventually, barrel wear can see catastrophic barrel failure in which the gun will be lost and the crew will probably take casualties.


I'd be tempted, were I Ivan, to pack those shot out barrels full of HE, weld or plug the breach shut, screw on a PD fuze and start chucking em out of airplanes. high velocity pipe bomb from hell.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Kirkhill said:


> Re the TV Tower - as the man sez.  A different opinion.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1559201874078846976


This is a Russian demolition.

Anyone involved in EW targeting would know transmitter towers are a dime a dozen comparatively. Some ass pain is putting it back up, but that isn't disabling the installation.

The sweet spot is is the building /truck/compound beside it. That's where the Tx/Rx stuff is. Or the people operating it. Or the Command Staff supporting it. 

Russians are not even deepfaking properly now...


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> Yes, of course
> 
> View attachment 72537



How to quell mobs and clear ships' holds circa 1947  -  Mk1 Entrenching Tool Handle.

Ask if the individual wishes to move or stay.  
If they move the move unmolested.
If they stay they are directed out of the line with a firm directional prod to the belly.
Once the numbers are thinned repeat the question and answer session 
Then repeat again
And again.


----------



## MilEME09

McG said:


> Barrel wear initially leads to reduced accuracy, which means you have to fire more rounds to hit your target. Ineffectually hammering a grid square is more wasted effort than value. Eventually, barrel wear can see catastrophic barrel failure in which the gun will be lost and the crew will probably take casualties.


Like this?


----------



## Kirkhill

FJAG said:


> You Okay. My question is, who owns the drone filming this and if it was a Russian one, why was it there and zeroing in on this tower just as a "loitering munition" comes in.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 😉



You mean the Klingon LAM?  Obviously it was cloaked.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1558977526403420160
These just keep getting better


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1559264505519083520


----------



## McG

If you’ve been following the daily updates from UK’s MoD Intelligence, you may enjoy this article that is based on an interview with the out-going chief of defence intelligence. 









						Ukraine war: Predicting Russia's next step in Ukraine
					

A decisive shift in southern Ukraine is unlikely in the coming months, says a top UK intelligence official.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1559411321581572098


----------



## The Bread Guy

Incentives don't seem to be incentive-ing too well ...








						Russian Officials Refusing to Work in Ukraine Despite Double Pay: Ukraine
					

"Russians continue to massively refuse to go on a dangerous business trip," the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine's Defense Ministry said.




					www.newsweek.com


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Incentives don't seem to be incentive-ing too well ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian Officials Refusing to Work in Ukraine Despite Double Pay: Ukraine
> 
> 
> "Russians continue to massively refuse to go on a dangerous business trip," the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine's Defense Ministry said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.newsweek.com


Well you can't spend it when you are dead..


----------



## Maxman1

McG said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1559264505519083520


----------



## Kirkhill

Summer holidays ending early in Crimea


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1559516561383346178

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wpxm2c


Explosions at the rail junction / airfield of Dzhankoi


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wpvygd


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wpojrf


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wpucqj


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wppkr1

For the record - the nearest Maiske I can find in the Dzhankoi vicinity is 18 km away - according to Google Earth.

This was Dzhankoi before the event.









						r/ukraine - Video showing stockpiled Russian ammunition next to the railway in Dzhankoy. There are also several BM-21 Grad MLRS vehicles.
					

3,355 votes and 314 comments so far on Reddit




					www.reddit.com
				




And in the Simferopol district










						Russian media report new explosions on military airfield near Simferopol in Crimea
					

ROMAN PETRENKO – TUESDAY, 16 AUGUST 2022, 13:37




					www.pravda.com.ua


----------



## MilEME09

Ukrainian 2nd/3rd line field maintenance shop at work


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1559943261015474178


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Well this will certainly help to ensure Russia supports the grain deal









						Ship Carrying Ukraine's First Grain Cargo Docks in Syria After Two Weeks at Sea
					

BEIRUT, Aug 16 (Reuters) – The first ship to depart Ukraine under a deal to resume grain exports from the country two weeks ago docked in the Syrian port city of Tartous...




					gcaptain.com
				




and this will help Ukraine GDP a bit.








						Ukraine Grain: Biggest Convoy of Ships Set to Load
					

KYIV, Aug 17 (Reuters) – Ukraine expects five ships to arrive at its Chornomorsk Black Sea port on Wednesday for loading with more than 70,000 tonnes of agricultural products, the largest convoy...




					gcaptain.com


----------



## Spencer100

Colin Parkinson said:


> Well this will certainly help to ensure Russia supports the grain deal
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ship Carrying Ukraine's First Grain Cargo Docks in Syria After Two Weeks at Sea
> 
> 
> BEIRUT, Aug 16 (Reuters) – The first ship to depart Ukraine under a deal to resume grain exports from the country two weeks ago docked in the Syrian port city of Tartous...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> gcaptain.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> and this will help Ukraine GDP a bit.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine Grain: Biggest Convoy of Ships Set to Load
> 
> 
> KYIV, Aug 17 (Reuters) – Ukraine expects five ships to arrive at its Chornomorsk Black Sea port on Wednesday for loading with more than 70,000 tonnes of agricultural products, the largest convoy...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> gcaptain.com


Hope the crews get a pay bonus.  I don't think I would want to be on those ships

Trusting the Russians to honour an agreement is a gamble.  If that convoy comes out and they want to send a message......


----------



## Colin Parkinson

True, but Russia is in a tough spot, if they attack international flagged vessels carrying foodstuffs away from the conflict zone as per a agreement from all parties, that's going to cost them a lot of support from their already tepid allies and will make Russian propaganda harder to promote. Russia needs to ship their grain as well, both for the money, but also the support from Africa and the ME.


----------



## MilEME09

Footage has apparently surfaced showing Russia hiding military equipment inside the turbine rooms at the ZPP.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1560313066025361411

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1560312899050115073


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Footage has apparently surfaced showing Russia hiding military equipment inside the turbine rooms at the ZPP.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1560313066025361411
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1560312899050115073


The US has called for immediate ceasefire and Russian evacuation of the plant, - and a NATO TF to protect it until hostilities end.
   The UN Sec Gen has also called for Russia to abandon the plant.


----------



## KevinB

Another Ammo Dump


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1560342178903326722


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> The US has called for immediate ceasefire and Russian evacuation of the plant, - and a NATO TF to protect it until hostilities end.
> The UN Sec Gen has also called for Russia to abandon the plant.


Do you have a source for thst statement?


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Do you have a source for thst statement?


Came out a few days ago before Russia moved even more troops in...
  There was an TV interview as with the UN Sec Gen


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Another Ammo Dump
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1560342178903326722


Couldn't resist


----------



## brihard

Looks like an explodey night in the AOR according to the OSINT aggregators.

Something was shot at and potentially shot down reportedly near the Kerch Strait (literally just sending a dumb drone to get visibly shot down near there will have a major psychological effect).


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1560336417204703238
Stuff blew up at Belbek airbase near Sevastopol, Crimea. Recent photos have shown tactical jets on the ground there.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1560354851070087174
Something burning big and bright, reportedly at Stary Oskol airbase in Belgorod oblast- this is a weird one, it’s something like 150km from the lines and a helicopter base.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1560351368459829248
None of these are verified, all are coming from ‘citizen footage’ of stuff brewing up at night. Any or all could be inaccurate. Or the Ukrainians could be very busy proving deep strike capabilities tonight, and being seen to probe the Kerch bridge to get in Russia’s head.

It’s not even midnight yet in Ukraine (all one time zone). The night is young.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

This is just the appetizer I imagine. The Ukrainians have the means to hammer that bridge, that was not the main effort


----------



## Colin Parkinson

I wonder how many of these dumps going up is dissatisfied Russian Conscripts sabotaging things?


----------



## Good2Golf

Hmmmm, I still think it’s failure to obey no smoking policy at the bases/dumps.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> Hmmmm, I still think it’s failure to obey no smoking policy at the bases/dumps.
> 
> View attachment 72592


#SmokyKnows


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> #SmokyKnows




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1560352832288604161


----------



## brihard

brihard said:


> Looks like an explodey night in the AOR according to the OSINT aggregators.
> 
> Something was shot at and potentially shot down reportedly near the Kerch Strait (literally just sending a dumb drone to get visibly shot down near there will have a major psychological effect).
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1560336417204703238
> Stuff blew up at Belbek airbase near Sevastopol, Crimea. Recent photos have shown tactical jets on the ground there.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1560354851070087174
> Something burning big and bright, reportedly at Stary Oskol airbase in Belgorod oblast- this is a weird one, it’s something like 150km from the lines and a helicopter base.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1560351368459829248
> None of these are verified, all are coming from ‘citizen footage’ of stuff brewing up at night. Any or all could be inaccurate. Or the Ukrainians could be very busy proving deep strike capabilities tonight, and being seen to probe the Kerch bridge to get in Russia’s head.
> 
> It’s not even midnight yet in Ukraine (all one time zone). The night is young.



The reports of a hit at Belbek airbase seem to be inaccurate. Sorry, seems to be a lot going on tonight.


----------



## MilEME09

brihard said:


> The reports of a hit at Belbek airbase seem to be inaccurate. Sorry, seems to be a lot going on tonight.


Reports are still conflicting, some pro tmrussian telegram channels that originally reported it are changing their story. We will need ti wait for satellite imagery to see who is telling the truth


----------



## The Bread Guy

Interestingly granular look at Team USSR 2.0's stay in UKR

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1560022545356791810As usual, caveat lector


----------



## MilEME09

Well thats embarrassing......


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1560626753839607816


----------



## rmc_wannabe

MilEME09 said:


> Well thats embarrassing......
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1560626753839607816


Goes nicely with the fleet's Flag Ship being at the bottom of the Black Sea....


----------



## daftandbarmy

I <heart> Romania....


----------



## KevinB

Exclusive: Ukraine’s Secret Effort to Train for U.S. Jets
					

The program shows how Ukrainians are using invention, social media and disregard for protocol against Russia.




					time.com


----------



## NavyShooter

An analysis of Russian Artillery...shared from Tom Cooper on F-Book, who appears to have gotten it here:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1560350883929620481


----------



## Blackadder1916

daftandbarmy said:


> I <heart> Romania....
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 72597



I'd go to Romania just to get that stamp in my passport.  It'll be a collectors item.  Wonder if it's an automatic only for Ruskies thing or if they would put it in another country's passport if requested.


----------



## Maxman1

Good2Golf said:


> Hmmmm, I still think it’s failure to obey no smoking policy at the bases/dumps.
> 
> View attachment 72592


And if that doesn't work, unleash Forrest Byrnes.


----------



## MilEME09

Russians had a hell of a time taking a Ukrainian position, machine gun would be silenced. Finally take it only to find out it was a BTR turret being controlled remotely. Ingenious.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1561004494372085762


----------



## daftandbarmy

Still waiting....

Ukraine appears to prepare counteroffensive against Russia​President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has teased a counteroffensive in Ukraine. So are recent attacks on railroad logistics, command and communication facilities in territories occupied by Russia's army preparations for that?

Ben Hodges, a former general in the US army and commander-in-chief of US forces in Europe, told DW that there are signs that Russia's army is weakening following explosions at Russia's airfield on the Crimean Peninsula and Ukrainian artillery hits on dozens of ammunition depots and commando units in Russian-occupied areas.

"This shows that they are vulnerable," Hodges said. "It also shows that their logistical system is depleted. The Russians don't even have enough people or capability to protect their operational logistics."









						Ukraine appears to prepare counteroffensive against Russia | DW | 19.08.2022
					

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has teased a counteroffensive in Ukraine. So are recent attacks on railroad logistics, command and communication facilities in territories occupied by Russia's army preparations for that?




					www.dw.com


----------



## suffolkowner

NavyShooter said:


> An analysis of Russian Artillery...shared from Tom Cooper on F-Book, who appears to have gotten it here:
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1560350883929620481
> 
> View attachment 72600


Is there numbers on comparable Western production capability or supplies?









						Russia Has Run Out of Long-Range Missiles to Terrorize Ukraine
					

Russia has burned through over 3,000 expensive long-range missiles to attack Ukraine with relatively limited results.




					www.19fortyfive.com
				




Based on his figures, monthly missile production rates are as follows:

– Novator plant: 8-10 *Kalibr naval cruise missiles** per month

– Novator plant: 3-6 *Iskander-K cruise missiles* per month (“several dozen [annually]”) per month

– Votkinsk plant: 5 *Iskander-M ballistic missiles* per month (increased from 4)

[from other sources] 2-4 Oniks anti-ship missiles per month (“several dozen annually”) or 4.5 per month (55 annually) used in Bastion coastal defense system and Russian ships


----------



## Maxman1

MilEME09 said:


> Russians had a hell of a time taking a Ukrainian position, machine gun would be silenced. Finally take it only to find out it was a BTR turret being controlled remotely. Ingenious.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1561004494372085762


We've come a long way from this:


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> Russians had a hell of a time taking a Ukrainian position, machine gun would be silenced. Finally take it only to find out it was a BTR turret being controlled remotely. Ingenious.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1561004494372085762



The advantages of giving imagination free rein.


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> The advantages of giving imagination free rein.


Learn the rules.
Follow the rules.
Master the rules.
Break the rules.
Throw the rules away.


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> Learn the rules.
> Follow the rules.
> Master the rules.
> Break the rules.
> Throw the rules away.  Make new rules?


----------



## MilEME09

How will NATO respond?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1561097650350575617


----------



## NavyShooter

I suspect that the issue of tourist visas will no longer be a problem...they will likely revoke them at this point.


----------



## brihard

Possible assassination miss tonight on Aleksandr Dugin, one of Russia’s most prominent ideologues (hat tip to @Humphrey Bogart who has written about him here previously). Dugin has basically been calling for Ukraine as a nationality to be wiped out for quite some ears now and is widely viewed as very influential on Putin.

Dugin’s daughter Darya was killed when her car exploded in Moscow oblast tonight. Apparently quite the piece of work herself; the Apple hasn’t fallen far from the tree. ThereMs speculation Dugin was to have ridden home with her from an event, but took a different car.

Couple different ways fingers could point here- could be a straightforward Ukrainian hit on someone calling for their elimination. Could be orchestrated by Putin in revenge for being led down a bad path. I can’t gauge likelihood. Either way this will reverberate.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1561115126861799425


----------



## RangerRay

Sounds like the Russian espionage same in pre-war Ukraine was a clown-car of poor analysis and wishful thinking, despite Ukrainian intelligence being riddled with moles. 



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2022/russia-fsb-intelligence-ukraine-war/


----------



## KevinB

Suspected Kremlin spies arrested in Albania after assault at military base
					

Authorities have taken two Russians and one Ukrainian citizen into custody.




					www.politico.eu


----------



## McG

Russians fighters in Ukraine not enthusiastic that military resources were held out of the fight to allow for a tank biathlon.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1561256474428456961


----------



## kev994

McG said:


> Russians fighters in Ukraine not enthusiastic that military resources were held out of the fight to allow for a tank biathlon.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1561256474428456961


That’s not surprising. Their priority has always been convincing the locals how powerful the Soviet Union Russia is.


----------



## KevinB

McG said:


> Russians fighters in Ukraine not enthusiastic that military resources were held out of the fight to allow for a tank biathlon.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1561256474428456961


Those tanks probably had real ERA blocks too.


----------



## daftandbarmy

McG said:


> Russians fighters in Ukraine not enthusiastic that military resources were held out of the fight to allow for a tank biathlon.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1561256474428456961



Is the Russian Tank biathlon Team kind of like the CAF Hockey Team?


----------



## Skysix

I prefer educated/experienced critical thinkers over rule followers. They tend to have better results. New rules help, but ultimately are just as limiting.


----------



## Skysix

MilEME09 said:


> How will NATO respond?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1561097650350575617


Albania needs to positively identify Russian Military or Security connections,  preferably orders, then ask for Article 5 protections first. 

1st appropriate response, immediate border closure of all NATO countries to all Russian nationals including no right of transit or refuel stop etc  by sea, air or land between Russia and any non NATO ountry.


----------



## Skysix

RangerRay said:


> Sounds like the Russian espionage same in pre-war Ukraine was a clown-car of poor analysis and wishful thinking, despite Ukrainian intelligence being riddled with moles.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2022/russia-fsb-intelligence-ukraine-war/


Rhymes with CIA/DIA and Iraq circa 2003


----------



## Weinie

Skysix said:


> Albania needs to positively identify Russian Military or Security connections,  preferably orders, then ask for Article 5 protections first.
> 
> 1st appropriate response, immediate border closure of all NATO countries to all Russian nationals including no right of transit or refuel stop etc  by sea, air or land between Russia and any non NATO ountry.


False flag much.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Maxman1 said:


> We've come a long way from this:


Judging by the pile of brass, I would say that it did not fire that much. Someone will still have to go and reload it, service it.


----------



## Kilted

Skysix said:


> Albania needs to positively identify Russian Military or Security connections,  preferably orders, then ask for Article 5 protections first.
> 
> 1st appropriate response, immediate border closure of all NATO countries to all Russian nationals including no right of transit or refuel stop etc  by sea, air or land between Russia and any non NATO ountry.


Has Canada ever done something like that in recent memory?


----------



## dapaterson

Two. Three. Four. Five. Six. Seven. Eight pieces of bad news for the Russians.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1561406426744258560


----------



## daftandbarmy

From April, but still highly relevant IMHO:

Europe’s roads and railways aren’t fit for a fight with Russia​EU struggles to reverse years of neglect on spending to improve road and rail to shift troops and tanks.
The projects include strengthening rail links from Antwerp into Germany so that longer trains can move east | Raigo Pajula/AFP via Getty Images

Having a better army doesn't much matter if you can't get it moving.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has focused attention on preparing the EU's roads, railways, ports and airports for the rapid movement of troops and tanks. Relieving bottlenecks and buttressing tracks and bridges used by both military and civilians is crucial to the Continent's defense program. But despite those worries, the EU isn't planning any immediate increase in spending on the issue.

“The further east you go, the infrastructure does not support the heavy weight of U.S., German, British and Dutch tanks, it’s the bridges,” said retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, a former commander of U.S. Army Europe and now affiliated to think tank CEPA. “We’ve got to show we can move as fast or faster than the Russian Federation in the Suwałki Gap [between Poland and Lithuania] or in Romania.”









						Europe’s roads and railways aren’t fit for a fight with Russia
					

EU struggles to reverse years of neglect on spending to improve road and rail to shift troops and tanks.




					www.politico.eu


----------



## brihard

Fortunately, Russia’s OP BLUNDERSTRUCK has pushed back by a number of years the eventuality of having to really mobilize and surge east to meet a concerted Russian attack on NATO’s eastern flank. It’ll be quite some time before they’re in a position to try this crap again. Europe has time to prepare.


----------



## McG

brihard said:


> Fortunately, Russia’s OP BLUNDERSTRUCK has pushed back by a number of years the eventuality of having to really mobilize and surge east to meet a concerted Russian attack on NATO’s eastern flank. It’ll be quite some time before they’re in a position to try this crap again. Europe has time to prepare.


That assumes that Putin, feeling his own position threatened, will not launch on a desperate, irrational act. Authoritarians have destroyed their countries in acts they believed would salvage their personal outcomes. Russia may be incapable of launching an effective campaign vs NATO, but they could still try & they would still be dangerous.


----------



## brihard

McG said:


> That assumes that Putin, feeling his own position threatened, will not launch on a desperate, irrational act. Authoritarians have destroyed their countries in acts they believed would salvage their personal outcomes. Russia may be incapable of launching an effective campaign vs NATO, but they could still try & they would still be dangerous.


Certainly, but even if he launched a sudden “with what’s left” campaign, NATO has already moved more stuff east, likely has shitloads of intelligence and reconnaissance assets that would see it coming, and there wouldn’t be the same desperation to the imperative to “move everything RTFN”. Russia’s offensive capabilities have been very heavily blunted for some years to come.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Russia's piss poor ability to tape a bunch of BTR-1s and T-55s together and call it a "BTG", doesn't make it less of a threat to NATO.


----------



## brihard

rmc_wannabe said:


> Russia's piss poor ability to tape a bunch of BTR-1s and T-55s together and call it a "BTG", doesn't make it less of a threat to NATO.



I would argue that their current state (versus before February) very much DOES make them less of a threat to NATO until they can reconstitute.  Are you going to seriously content that Russia attacking NATO in January would be no more than the same threat as Russia attacking NATO now? That’s ludicrous.

All I’m saying is that Russia, having monumentally screwed itself and having violently carved the core out of its best formations, is now less able to make a serious assault on NATO than they could have before, and that consequently Western Europe has a bit more breathing room to beef up strategic infrastructure.


----------



## McG

rmc_wannabe said:


> Russia's piss poor ability to tape a bunch of BTR-1s and T-55s together and call it a "BTG", doesn't make it less of a threat to NATO.


Oh, it is definitely less of a threat now. But it is still a threat, and it is still a nuclear armed threat.


----------



## Good2Golf

McG said:


> Oh, it is definitely less of a threat now. But it is still a threat, and it is still a nuclear armed threat.


PAK is Nuke and it’s friendliness is ‘conditiinal’ and then there’s Moscow’s ‘friend’ India…also Nuke…yes, RUS is a nuc power, as it likes to bombastically remind everybody, but where does the “yeah, but they have nuclear weapons!” keeping us from doing more because R2P, stop? They’re going to make more of a mess doing a false false flag at Zaporizhzhia than the likelihood that they’ll let a TACNUK rip (remember, RUS aren’t the only ones (back) with TACNUKs now…


----------



## McG

Good2Golf said:


> where does the “yeah, but they have nuclear weapons!” keeping us from doing more because R2P, stop?


There is a good question. When is the threat lessened by NATO taking initiative instead of continuing to cede it to Russia?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

McG said:


> Oh, it is definitely less of a threat now. But it is still a threat, and it is still a nuclear armed threat.


This was what I was all alluding to. Desperate people do irrational and dangerous things.


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1561470104717692928


----------



## MilEME09

Looks like a rebellion in the making, the Russian Republican army took responsibility for the recent car bombing


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1561465020940263426
Their manifesto


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1561442944627908610


----------



## Kirkhill

A Russian bloggers take on the Artillery War.  He doesn't think the Russians will end the Operational Pause any time soon.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wu8kwb


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wu405e

A thoroughly interesting interview with a Lithuanians "Staff Sergeant" volunteer. He started on March 7th as an instructor of Ukrainian volunteers.

He has some interesting things to say about the International Legion --- and A-10s and F-16s.


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukrainian Recovery


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wtz1ea


----------



## YZT580

brihard said:


> Fortunately, Russia’s OP BLUNDERSTRUCK has pushed back by a number of years the eventuality of having to really mobilize and surge east to meet a concerted Russian attack on NATO’s eastern flank. It’ll be quite some time before they’re in a position to try this crap again. Europe has time to prepare.


If Europe follows its normal pattern, it will squander its advantage.  Instead of pursuing other venues they will bargain with the Russians to get a better price on fuel.  Instead of rebuilding their armed forces they will spend their money on more windmills and more solar panels.  Military requirements will be subject to much negotiation and debate until the crisis passes and nothing is done. (sigh)  Just like here!


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1561470104717692928



Fighting Russians would make a nice change from B Company


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> Looks like a rebellion in the making, the Russian Republican army took responsibility for the recent car bombing
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1561465020940263426
> Their manifesto
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1561442944627908610


Can't possibly be true - RUS state media's saying it was the Ukrainians ....








						Russia's FSB Releases Footage of Ukrainian Agent Held Responsible for Murder of Daria Dugina
					

The 29-year-old journalist and daughter of famed Russian political philosopher Alexander Dugin was killed instantly Saturday night on a highway outside Moscow after a powerful car bomb attached to the SUV she was driving detonated.




					sputniknews.com


----------



## rmc_wannabe

The Bread Guy said:


> Can't possibly be true - RUS state media's saying it was the Ukrainians ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia's FSB Releases Footage of Ukrainian Agent Held Responsible for Murder of Daria Dugina
> 
> 
> The 29-year-old journalist and daughter of famed Russian political philosopher Alexander Dugin was killed instantly Saturday night on a highway outside Moscow after a powerful car bomb attached to the SUV she was driving detonated.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> sputniknews.com



So its either you have a rebellion brewing (bad) or your have Ukrainian SBU Agents infiltrating Moscow (also bad). This runs counter to all the "Ukrainians couldn't possibly do this... it was.... someone smoking at the ammo dump" narrative we have seen of late.

Its getting pretty hard to follow....


----------



## Eaglelord17

rmc_wannabe said:


> So its either you have a rebellion brewing (bad) or your have Ukrainian SBU Agents infiltrating Moscow (also bad). This runs counter to all the "Ukrainians couldn't possibly do this... it was.... someone smoking at the ammo dump" narrative we have seen of late.
> 
> Its getting pretty hard to follow....


Could also be the Russians themselves attempting to dispose of someone who is no longer needed…

Based off the bodge jobs the FSB has made in the last decade it wouldn’t surprise me if they missed their target. Blaming the Ukrainians or having some sort of liberation group claim responsibility takes the direct blame of themselves.


----------



## MilEME09

Convenient....except the suspect was spotted in Estonia


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1561744471745863686


----------



## daftandbarmy

More than just one thing, I'm guessing....


What The Hell is Wrong with Steven Seagal?​ 
Actor Steven Seagal, star of more than 50 films seems to have lost his mind. He is now a Russian citizen and a propaganda asset for Vladimir Putin. Seagal moved to Russia in 2015.

In a 2020 court settlement in New York, Segal agreed to cough up some $330,000 to the SEC for a failure to disclose that he was a paid spokesman for a cryptocurrency he promoted.  Seagal paid just $75,000 of the amount and then skipped out on the rest.

As related in the settlement, “These investors were entitled to know about payments Seagal received or was promised to endorse this investment so they could decide whether he may be biased,” by Kristina Littman, Chief of the SEC Enforcement Division’s Cyber Unit. “Celebrities are not allowed to use their social media influence to tout securities without appropriately disclosing their compensation.”

He has also been the target of numerous lawsuits alleging sexual harassment and even rape of female costars and staffers.

Seagal received Russian citizenship personally from Putin in a special ceremony in 2016.  This resulted in him being banned from Ukraine by its government in 2017 for a period of five years.  Making Seagal a Russian citizen was hyped in Moscow as a move towards normalizing relations between Russia and the US. In 2018, Seagal was appointed as a special representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry to help improve relations with the US.

Putin seems to have wasted no time in using Seagal as a propaganda asset. Prior to his grant of citizenship Seagal, who is now 69 years old was tasked with training Serbian special forces, presumably in Akito and other martial arts. Prior to being granted Russian citizenship in 2017, Seagal also accepted a passport from Serbia as a citizen of that country in 2016. He has been a vocal supporter of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine while also dismissing allegations of Russian interference in the 2016 elections saying, “For anyone to think that Vladimir Putin had anything to do with fixing the elections, or even that the Russians have that kind of technology, is stupid.”










						What The Hell is Wrong with Steven Seagal?
					

Steven Seagal, the action film hero is now a propaganda organ for Putin in his war against Ukraine.




					sofrep.com


----------



## MilEME09

No words....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1561789316376006656


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> Convenient....except the suspect was spotted in Estonia
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1561744471745863686


According to digital graphics nerds, heavily and blatantly photoshopped.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1561781504975540225


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1562245249216532480


----------



## dapaterson

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1562212073840451586


----------



## Spencer100

dapaterson said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1562212073840451586


They have great stuff. Too bad it's so expensive. They have to buy sets and blocks at retail as Lego has a no war toy policy.  It has weakened over the years as they will make some period pieces and star wars guns and other movie guns.  The closest they have gotten to modern day is a WWI RAF biplane with guns.  Few years ago they put out a V-22 (Boeing Bell approved) in rescue orange but had to pull it. The outrage they  received because there is no V-22 operator using it for rescue only.  300 sets got out in England they go for thousands now.  

FYI Brickmania sets are official licensed from Bell, Lockheed.

I was talking to them other day about T-6 and the Goshawk models they have if I can buy the instruction sets and build as the RCAF models.  They thought that would be great


----------



## Kilted

I don't think that I have ever seen someone receive a General Salute wearing a t-shirt and running shoes.


----------



## Furniture

Kilted said:


> I don't think that I have ever seen someone receive a General Salute wearing a t-shirt and running shoes.


I appreciate that he has stuck to the image, image is a powerful weapon. 

Him being dressed like he was when Kyiv was under direct threat of ground invasion helps remind people at home, and abroad that Ukraine is still fighting for its existence.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Kilted said:


> I don't think that I have ever seen someone receive a General Salute wearing a t-shirt and running shoes.


President Zelensky has been a wartime leader, sharing hardships with his people and his troops that most Western leaders would balk at.

 He has been wearing that same outfit or some variation of it since the first salvo. It has solidified his place amongst his people and amongst history as a man that has stepped up beyond measure in service of his country. He gets a pass in my books. 

Mind you, if our elected leaders tried the same stunt, I would hope to hell their ADC or EA would pull them aside and tell them how the world works.


----------



## Skysix

Speaking of Lego... Tractor is a modified 1:35 Lego kit (flag, bumper weight, duals, fuel tank and hidden engine). The tank a slightly modified Chinese 1:34 Lego-clone kit (to current generation) T-72. Lego does not offer war machine kits.

(For the curious, helmet is US and was damaged by being struck by an 8" oak tree branch at about 30mph, then abraded by the road after it was knocked out of the LMTV bed, then run over by next vehicle in the convoy. By then the chin strap had broken so its owner was not jellified.)


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1562245249216532480



Charge!


----------



## YZT580

Skysix said:


> Speaking of Lego... Tractor is a modified 1:35 Lego kit (flag, bumper weight, duals, fuel tank and hidden engine). The tank a slightly modified Chinese 1:34 Lego-clone kit (to current generation) T-72. Lego does not offer war machine kits.
> 
> (For the curious, helmet is US and was damaged by being struck by an 8" oak tree branch at about 30mph, then abraded by the road after it was knocked out of the LMTV bed, then run over by next vehicle in the convoy. By then the chin strap had broken so its owner was not jellified.)


but they have the full star wars set, hypocrisy or fantasy deaths are ok just not real ones


----------



## Kilted

rmc_wannabe said:


> Mind you, if our elected leaders tried the same stunt, I would hope to hell their ADC or EA would pull them aside and tell them how the world works.


We hand a non-elected person who did weirder stuff than that.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

rmc_wannabe said:


> President Zelensky has been a wartime leader, sharing hardships with his people and his troops that most Western leaders would balk at.
> 
> He has been wearing that same outfit or some variation of it since the first salvo. It has solidified his place amongst his people and amongst history as a man that has stepped up beyond measure in service of his country. He gets a pass in my books.
> 
> *Mind you, if our elected leaders tried the same stunt, I would hope to hell their ADC or EA would pull them aside and tell them how the world works.*



You mean like this:


----------



## MilEME09

Great story by the Washington post about the battle of Kyiv, and what shaped it.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1562415551556747264


----------



## Halifax Tar

Retired AF Guy said:


> You mean like this:



At least he wasn't afraid to throw fists.  I think he's is probably closer Zelensky than the Great Sun Prince.


----------



## Spencer100

YZT580 said:


> but they have the full star wars set, hypocrisy or fantasy deaths are ok just not real ones


Stormtroopers never hit anything.  But Han fired first.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Halifax Tar said:


> At least he wasn't afraid to throw fists.  I think he's is probably closer Zelensky than the Great Sun Prince.
> 
> View attachment 72753


Great 'Sun' Prince has smacking's of a male gender connotation that is known in some circles to be violent, misogynist and the root of all evil.  I'd call him the 'Prince of Darkness'.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Mine clearing in Donestik you need Telegram to view, using a steel fireplace or air rifles









						Мир сегодня с "Юрий Подоляка"
					

"Аматорское" разминирование "лепестков" по-донецки




					t.me


----------



## rnkelly

Let’s not forget that he actually has a decent jab…


----------



## Navy_Pete

Oh boy... hopefully doesn't turn into another Chernobyl (apologies can't get the C&P into the quote working today. PEBKAC)

Shelling disconnects Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant from Ukraine grid



> Shelling disconnects Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant from Ukraine grid​Russian-held site temporarily cut off, raising risk of catastrophic failure of cooling systems


Fires caused by shelling cut the last remaining power line to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant on Thursday, temporarily disconnecting it from Ukraine’s national grid for the first time in nearly 40 years of operation, the country’s nuclear power firm, Energoatom, has said.

There have been growing international concerns about safety at Europe’s largest nuclear plant. It has been occupied by Russian forces since the start of the war, and they are now using it to house military vehicles and equipment.


The White House called on Russia to agree to a demilitarised zone around the plant, after the US president, Joe Biden, spoke to his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Biden congratulated him on the country’s 31st Independence Day, celebrated on Wednesday, which was also the six-month mark since Russia invaded.

“I know it is a bittersweet anniversary, but I made it clear that the United States would continue to support Ukraine and its people as they fight to defend their sovereignty,” Biden tweeted after the phone call.

Negotiations are under way for the UN’s nuclear watchdog to visit the site, and Ukraine’s top nuclear official told the Guardian that International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors could arrive by the end of the month.

Until then, continued fighting puts the plant, and potentially much of Europe, at risk. A nuclear accident could spread radiation far across the continent.

The plant was disconnected twice from the Ukrainian grid on Thursday after a blaze at the ash pits of a nearby coal-fired power plant affected the fourth and last connection into the plant’s reactors. Three other lines had already been taken out during the war.

“The actions of the invaders caused a complete disconnection of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant from the power grid – for the first time in the history of the plant,” Energoatom said on Thursday.

The severing of that connection briefly caused a blackout in the Zaporizhzhia region, said Yevgeny Balitsky, the Russian-appointed governor for the area. Power has now been restored.

Disconnecting the plant from the grid is dangerous because it raises the risk of catastrophic failure of the electricity-run cooling systems for its reactors and spent fuel rods.

During the outage, the plant still received supplies of electricity from one remaining backup line connected to the nearby conventional power plant, Energoatom said. There were three of these lines before the war, but two have been cut.

If all external connections go down, it must rely on diesel-fuelled generators for power. If they break down, engineers only have 90 minutes to stave off dangerous overheating.

The head of Energoatom’s told the Guardian on Wednesday that Russian engineers had drawn up a blueprint to permanently disconnect the plant from the national grid and connect it to the Russian power network instead. Petro Kotin said the plan was ostensibly aimed at maintaining power supply to the plant if all connections to Ukraine were cut off by fighting, as they were on Thursday. But Ukraine fears Russia may deliberately cut the lines.

The latest crisis at the plant, which has previously been threatened by fires, came as the death toll from a Russian rocket attack on a railway station and village in south-central Dnipropetrovsk region rose to 25.

The three rocket strikes also injured 31, according to Ukraine’s authorities. The area was hit on Independence Day – an anniversary overshadowed by US warnings that Russia may be planning to “step up” attacks.

Russia’s defence ministry said its forces had successfully hit a military train, killing 200 Ukrainian soldiers. It said the train was set to deliver arms to the frontline in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. It is impossible to corroborate the claims. Ukraine’s authorities do not regularly share information about their military losses.

At least some of the victims appear to have been civilians. Pictures and footage of the aftermath aired by Ukraine’s public broadcaster Suspilne showed at least one destroyed house in the village and extensive damage elsewhere. Those interviewed by Suspilne said fellow villagers had died.

Kyrylo Tymoshenko, an adviser to Ukraine’s presidential office, said two children, aged six and 11, were killed, the latter when their house was destroyed. Zelenskiy said five people were killed while sitting in a car.

Tetyana Kvitnytska, the deputy director of health at the Dnipropetrovsk regional military administration, said four children were among the injured, three of whom were in a serious condition. She said there were shrapnel wounds, burns and fractures.

Only two pictures have been released so far of the railway carriages that were hit, which appear burnt out and flattened in places. Tymoshenko said five passenger carriages caught fire and a utility building at the railway station had been hit.

The EU’s foreign affairs representative, Josep Borrell, wrote on Twitter: “The EU strongly condemns another terrible Russian attack on the civilian population in Chaplyny on Ukraine’s independence day. Those responsible for Russian missile terror will be held accountable.”

Russian and Ukrainian forces have reached a relative stalemate in recent months, partly after the west supplied new long-range missiles that have hampered Russia’s supply lines and ability to continue with its offensives. Ukraine says it also does not have the weapons it needs to launch a decisive counteroffensive.


----------



## Maxman1

Spencer100 said:


> Stormtroopers never hit anything.  But Han fired first.



George Lucas agrees.


----------



## Maxman1

rnkelly said:


> Let’s not forget that he actually has a decent jab…



And can take a punch.


----------



## FJAG

> How Ukraine is using resistance warfare developed by the US to fight back against Russia
> 
> 
> As the war in Ukraine has passed the six-month mark, US and European officials say Ukraine has successfully used a method of resistance warfare developed by US special operations forces to fight back against Russia and bog down its vastly superior military.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com



🍻


----------



## Maxman1

Czech_pivo said:


> Great 'Sun' Prince has smacking's of a male gender connotation that is known in some circles to be violent, misogynist and the root of all evil.  I'd call him the 'Prince of Darkness'.



He has nothing on the true Prince of Darkness.


----------



## ueo

Maxman1 said:


> He has nothing on the true Prince of Darkness.


Prince of Stupidity and Having Fooled Nearly everyone?


----------



## GK .Dundas

Maxman1 said:


> He has nothing on the true Prince of Darkness.


Hey! Be nice Lucas at the very least makes at least one thing that doesn't suck...granted it's a vacuum cleaner. 
But at least they're trying .


----------



## MilEME09

Russian quality once again shown off, no wonder they take so many reported casualties 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1563628411255496704


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> Russian quality once again shown off, no wonder they take so many reported casualties
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1563628411255496704




Equipped by Mattel.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

MilEME09 said:


> Russian quality once again shown off, no wonder they take so many reported casualties
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1563628411255496704


"You said these were Kevlar!"
"Oh no. I said they were Kav-ler... it's shredded leather and epoxy"


----------



## YZT580

rmc_wannabe said:


> "You said these were Kevlar!"
> "Oh no. I said they were Kav-ler... it's shredded leather and epoxy"


you don't want to get into a wrestling match with that one.  I don't care what it is made of, that is some vicious headbutt


----------



## Maxman1

ueo said:


> Prince of Stupidity and Having Fooled Nearly everyone?


The Prince of Insufficient Light?


----------



## brihard

Lots of chatter this morning about something big having kicked off in Kherson overnight. Purportedly, offensive ops by the Ukrainians. Let’s hope this firms up, and that they find success.


----------



## armrdsoul77

Kirkhill said:


> Equipped by Mattel.


Remember reading something about the initial difficulties they had with m-16s in Vietnam and how they were manufactured by Mattel. Not true but possibly some of the early plastic grips were made by them.
Was the M-16 Rifle Used in the Vietnam War Made by a Toymaker?


----------



## daftandbarmy

brihard said:


> Lots of chatter this morning about something big having kicked off in Kherson overnight. Purportedly, offensive ops by the Ukrainians. Let’s hope this firms up, and that they find success.



AJ confirms...
​
Ukraine says it started counter-offensive to retake areas in south​Ukrainian forces have started a long-awaited counteroffensive to regain territory in the south seized by Russian forces since their invasion six months ago, the country’s southern command spokesperson has said.

“Today we started offensive actions in various directions, including in the Kherson region,” Ukrainian public broadcaster Suspilne cited Natalia Humeniuk as saying.

She declined to give details of the counter-offensive, saying Russian forces in southern Ukraine remained “quite powerful”.









						Russia-Ukraine latest updates: Kyiv begins Kherson counterattack
					

Military operation comes as UN team is on its way to inspect the besieged Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## MilEME09

daftandbarmy said:


> AJ confirms...
> ​
> Ukraine says it started counter-offensive to retake areas in south​Ukrainian forces have started a long-awaited counteroffensive to regain territory in the south seized by Russian forces since their invasion six months ago, the country’s southern command spokesperson has said.
> 
> “Today we started offensive actions in various directions, including in the Kherson region,” Ukrainian public broadcaster Suspilne cited Natalia Humeniuk as saying.
> 
> She declined to give details of the counter-offensive, saying Russian forces in southern Ukraine remained “quite powerful”.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia-Ukraine latest updates: Kyiv begins Kherson counterattack
> 
> 
> Military operation comes as UN team is on its way to inspect the besieged Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.aljazeera.com


Initial reports that I am taking with a grain of salt say in 3 direction Russian forces have collapsed and abandoned their positions with the Ukrainians penetrating 10km so far. Confirmed though is the Russian administration has ordered the evacuation of Russian personal from Nova Kahovka. Russian forces appear to be in full panic mode.



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564195510461816832

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564207761432481792


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564261672159612928


----------



## KevinB

Ukraine Announces Push in South; U.N. Inspectors Head to Nuclear Site
					

The Ukrainian military said it had launched offensive operations in multiple areas in the Kherson region. U.N. experts could soon visit the Russia-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, where shelling has sparked fears of calamity.




					www.nytimes.com
				




KYIV, Ukraine — The Ukrainian military announced on Monday that it had launched offensive operations in multiple areas along the front line in the Kherson region in southern Ukraine, perhaps signaling the start of a broad and long anticipated counteroffensiveaimed at retaking territory seized by Russia.

Fighting along a swath of the front line escalated sharply on Monday, according to Ukrainian military and civilian officials, and the Ukrainian government said that its military had “breached the occupiers’ first line of defense near Kherson.” 

The Ukrainian military also claimed on Monday to have struck a large Russian military base behind Russian lines in the Kherson region, destroying it. It was not immediately possible to verify the claims.

Across the Kherson region — whose capital was the first major city to fall to Russian forces after President Vladimir V. Putin invaded Ukraine in February — electrical networks blinked out amid the fighting on Monday, and Russian media reported evacuations from towns in the area. 

A United States defense official lent support to the idea that Ukraine was escalating its offensive in the south, saying: “The announced offensive shows the Ukrainians’ appetite for progress on the battlefield.” The official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military matters, added that the Pentagon remained cautious about whether Ukraine’s current military capabilities were sufficient to make significant gains.

It remained unclear if this was the start of the southern counteroffensive that Ukraine has telegraphed for months, or a continuation of strikes in the south that Ukraine has been carrying out for the last several weeks.

Junior Sgt. Dmytro Pysanka, a Ukrainian soldier stationed on the Kherson front, said “our offensive is ongoing.”

“I don’t know what’s going to happen next and how, but so far all goes according to the plan,” he said in a text message.

A local Russian proxy leader in Kherson, Kirill Stremousov, told the Russian state news agency Tass on Monday that reports of a possible Ukrainian offensive were “fake.” 

The reports of intensifying fighting came as the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency announced that a team of nuclear experts would visit the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which lies to the north of Kherson.

The government of President Volodymyr Zelensky has been under pressure to begin a counteroffensive intended to push Russian troops from Kherson and the western bank of the Dnipro River before the rainy season leaves fields muddy and impassable or European support wavers amid rising energy prices. Ukraine has signaled the start of offensive operations multiple times since May, though with little land changing hands.

On Monday, Ukraine’s military was circumspect. The spokeswoman for the southern military command, Nataliya Gumenyuk, said that Ukraine had begun “offensive actions on many directions in southern Ukraine.” She later issued a statement saying: “Every military operation requires silence,” and “everyone needs to be patient.” 

Natalia Yermak contributed reporting from Druzhkivka, Ukraine.

— Andrew E. Kramer and Thomas Gibbons-Neff


----------



## Navy_Pete

armrdsoul77 said:


> Remember reading something about the initial difficulties they had with m-16s in Vietnam and how they were manufactured by Mattel. Not true but possibly some of the early plastic grips were made by them.
> Was the M-16 Rifle Used in the Vietnam War Made by a Toymaker?


Along those lines remember talking to the defence scientists about field testing, and they always use the helmet anecdote as an example. The original kevlar helmets worked great in the lab, but kept failing in the field.

They investigated and found out it was because the test standard didn't consider things like people using it as an improptu seat. The test standard was actually updated to take that new requirement into account, until they eventually got something that survived field trials. I guess that was more practical than hoping people stop sitting on their helmets, which is something I haven't seen people try with non-combat issued helmets.

One of those interesting examples of how requirements (ie ballistic protection) don't always include things that you see in real usage.

Those Russian ones are hot garbage; even if that guy is hard as nails I would expect a basic hard hat to hold up better than that, and they usually crack (with the foam intended to eat the shock) before deforming, as there isn't a 'crumple zone'.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

armrdsoul77 said:


> Remember reading something about the initial difficulties they had with m-16s in Vietnam and how they were manufactured by Mattel. Not true but possibly some of the early plastic grips were made by them.
> Was the M-16 Rifle Used in the Vietnam War Made by a Toymaker?


As I recall  a toy maker redesigned the gun and manufacturing process to make the Sten gun.


----------



## Blackadder1916

Colin Parkinson said:


> As I recall  a toy maker redesigned the gun and manufacturing process to make the Sten gun.











						From toys to Sten
					

How a famous toy maker joined the war effort and made guns during the Second World War




					royalarmouries.org
				




You might have also played with a Meccano set or Dinky toy that were products the toy company acquired in the early 60s.


----------



## brihard

Gonna be a while before we can gauge the veracity and, potentially, gained success of the purported offensive.

The situation very much lends itself to a _potentially_ significant shift in the local situation in Kherson. Russian forces north of the river - all of the city is basically north of the river - have no road/rail link across due to the bridges getting hit. I expect troops on foot can cross, but doubtful it remains passable to vehicles.

Threaten a force with fragile morale and a super tenuous supply situation, and that’s ripe for a potential break and rout. Particularly if they see a narrow and closing window to escape. We may see a situation where some individual callsigns will hold their ground and fight, and others will collapse and retreat, leaving routes to bypass and encircle more stalwart pockets. Alternatively, the Russians might steel themselves enough to hold a line and the Ukrainians could face the disadvantage of attacking resilient prepared defenses… Hard to say. Hopefully the former, and enough of the Russian force collapses that everything on the right bank is at risk. Maybe with some luck, Ukraine will have new kit and capabilities hitting the field as part of this too.


----------



## Halifax Tar

brihard said:


> Gonna be a while before we can gauge the veracity and, potentially, gained success of the purported offensive.
> 
> The situation very much lends itself to a _potentially_ significant shift in the local situation in Kherson. Russian forces north of the river - all of the city is basically north of the river - have no road/rail link across due to the bridges getting hit. I expect troops on foot can cross, but doubtful it remains passable to vehicles.
> 
> Threaten a force with fragile morale and a super tenuous supply situation, and that’s ripe for a potential break and rout. Particularly if they see a narrow and closing window to escape. We may see a situation where some individual callsigns will hold their ground and fight, and others will collapse and retreat, leaving routes to bypass and encircle more stalwart pockets. Alternatively, the Russians might steel themselves enough to hold a line and the Ukrainians could face the disadvantage of attacking resilient prepared defenses… Hard to say. Hopefully the former, and enough of the Russian force collapses that everything on the right bank is at risk. Maybe with some luck, Ukraine will have new kit and capabilities hitting the field as part of this too.



Do you think the Ukrainians have any interest in taking the fight across the border and pushing into Russia ?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Halifax Tar said:


> Do you think the Ukrainians have any interest in taking the fight across the border and pushing into Russia ?



After they suffer about 100,000 casualties, which is what it might take to get that far, maybe not....


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Halifax Tar said:


> Do you think the Ukrainians have any interest in taking the fight across the border and pushing into Russia ?


Zelensky has said that the objective has and always will be regaining lost territory, including Crimea, and disabling Russia's ability to conduct offensive operations in Ukraine (hence the strikes on supply and munitions depots in Russia, airfields in Crimea, and the disabling attacks in Belarus). 

Ukraine doesn't want to lose credibility as a defending force against an unprovoked invasion. That would see international support fracture in an instant.


----------



## brihard

Halifax Tar said:


> Do you think the Ukrainians have any interest in taking the fight across the border and pushing into Russia ?


Bloody well better not. They do that, they lose a lot of western support and equipment. We will support them retaking their territory, but incursions into Russia proper would be hugely provocative and destabilizing.

Don’t get me wrong; raid an airfield or logistics dump, or take out a headquarters, sure. But no “take and hold ground”.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

brihard said:


> Gonna be a while before we can gauge the veracity and, potentially, gained success of the purported offensive.
> 
> The situation very much lends itself to a _potentially_ significant shift in the local situation in Kherson. Russian forces north of the river - all of the city is basically north of the river - have no road/rail link across due to the bridges getting hit. I expect troops on foot can cross, but doubtful it remains passable to vehicles.
> 
> Threaten a force with fragile morale and a super tenuous supply situation, and that’s ripe for a potential break and rout. Particularly if they see a narrow and closing window to escape. We may see a situation where some individual callsigns will hold their ground and fight, and others will collapse and retreat, leaving routes to bypass and encircle more stalwart pockets. Alternatively, the Russians might steel themselves enough to hold a line and the Ukrainians could face the disadvantage of attacking resilient prepared defenses… Hard to say. Hopefully the former, and enough of the Russian force collapses that everything on the right bank is at risk. Maybe with some luck, Ukraine will have new kit and capabilities hitting the field as part of this too.


I can imagine the Ukrainians are hoping that a major rout of the Russians forces will have a large impact on morale of the Russian Army and sow confusion and blame within the command structure, along with breaking public support. If they succeed and capture a large number of prisoners, it would be smart of them to quickly move them west, make a large public PR campaign of providing for them and having it all overseen by the Red Cross. That would filter into Russia and continue to undermine the war support. Plus help protect Ukrainian POW's.


----------



## Kirkhill

FWIW


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/x0rah3

Apparently this video is from the opposition


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/x0k9ap



> pretty good translation in comments below:
> 
> Ukrops (deragotory for Ukrainian) are fucking with everything possible, broke through 1st line of defense, they are shooting with tanks, aviation, artillery, 29th August <video ends>




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564190953434484742








						Armed Forces of Ukraine break through first line of Russian defence in Kherson Oblast – Kakhovka Operational Group
					

ROMAN PETRENKO – MONDAY, 29 AUGUST 2022, 13:11




					www.pravda.com.ua
				












						Task Force "Kakhovka": the Russians are cut off, the territories can be liberated
					

After active and successful combat work of the HIMARS rocket systems, the Russians ended up cut off from the supply of weapons and personnel from the territory of the occupied Crimea




					mil.in.ua
				





__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564211113755086849


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> FWIW
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/x0rah3
> 
> Apparently this video is from the opposition
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/x0k9ap
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564190953434484742
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Armed Forces of Ukraine break through first line of Russian defence in Kherson Oblast – Kakhovka Operational Group
> 
> 
> ROMAN PETRENKO – MONDAY, 29 AUGUST 2022, 13:11
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.pravda.com.ua
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Task Force "Kakhovka": the Russians are cut off, the territories can be liberated
> 
> 
> After active and successful combat work of the HIMARS rocket systems, the Russians ended up cut off from the supply of weapons and personnel from the territory of the occupied Crimea
> 
> 
> 
> 
> mil.in.ua
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564211113755086849




And we also see here that M-113s are not yet obsolete, apparently


----------



## Kirkhill

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564222800432435206


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> And we also see here that M-113s are not yet obsolete, apparently



Better than walking over that ground.


----------



## Kirkhill

And one more for good measure.









						Ukraine’s Armed Forces Launched a Long-Awaited Counteroffensive in the South: the Fighting is Going On in Many Directions | Defense Express
					

The armed forces of Ukraine have launched offensive operations in many areas of the south. Ukrainian defenders broke through the first line of defense of the Russians




					en.defence-ua.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukrainians trolling


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564262813970857985


----------



## brihard

daftandbarmy said:


> And we also see here that M-113s are not yet obsolete, apparently


Indeed. They might not take a solid punch, but if your big threat is shell splinters, it’s better than black Cadillacs for crossing the ground.


----------



## OldSolduer

brihard said:


> Indeed. They might not take a solid punch, but if your big threat is shell splinters, it’s better than black Cadillacs for crossing the ground.


And much faster - depending on the drivers.


----------



## Kirkhill

Unconfirmed social media report


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/x10aqj


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564358562071150594


----------



## Staff Weenie

Kirkhill said:


> Unconfirmed social media report
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/x10aqj
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564358562071150594


I so hope this is true, but until there's confirmation.....

Part of me wonders how close to the edge of collapse Russian forces actually are. High casualties, lack of morale, lack of basics such as food and water, abusive/corrupt/incompetent leadership - once the cracks start to appear, a collapse can happen quickly and spread like wildfire. But, if true, is this just in Kherson area, or will it go further?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Nice one, chaps.... looks like it might be a UAV strike


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564285848698425345


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Staff Weenie said:


> I so hope this is true, but until there's confirmation.....
> 
> Part of me wonders how close to the edge of collapse Russian forces actually are. High casualties, lack of morale, lack of basics such as food and water, abusive/corrupt/incompetent leadership - once the cracks start to appear, a collapse can happen quickly and spread like wildfire. But, if true, is this just in Kherson area, or will it go further?


Honestly, that is up for the Ukranians to decide in the way they conduct this counter offensive. 

If they offer full quarter to those who will surrender, then attack with ferocity at those who don't; I bet the message is loud and clear to the rank and file which path to take. 

If they don't, the fanatical hold outs will use it as justification to spur the others on, then you have Berlin 1945 on your hands: "If we stop fighting, they're going to slaughter us all like pigs... so keep fighting...."


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Trench systems are going to need a lot of overhead cover going into the future


----------



## brihard

rmc_wannabe said:


> Honestly, that is up for the Ukranians to decide in the way they conduct this counter offensive.
> 
> If they offer full quarter to those who will surrender, then attack with ferocity at those who don't; I bet the message is loud and clear to the rank and file which path to take.
> 
> If they don't, the fanatical hold outs will use it as justification to spur the others on, then you have Berlin 1945 on your hands: "If we stop fighting, they're going to slaughter us all like pigs... so keep fighting...."


Yup. Get some prisoners. Treat them well, and advertise that fact (without them being identifiable). Put them on a phone to mom. Info ops the shit out of it. And absolutely hammer Russian units that are in a vulnerable position. Give Russian soldiers a way out by surrender, and give them something to very much want out of.

Lots of fun to be had with radio spoofing too. Hit their networks with transmissions about units folding and retreating/surrendering, then jam the nets so they can’t hear anything further. Make every Russian company fee hammered and surrounded and unsure whether they have friends on their flanks anymore. Soon some of them won’t.


----------



## Kirkhill

Colin Parkinson said:


> Trench systems are going to need a lot of overhead cover going into the future



Looking at that I was wondering how many 75mm rounds would have been required in WWI to achieve the same effect.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> Looking at that I was wondering how many 75mm rounds would have been required in WWI to achieve the same effect.



About this many...


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> About this many...
> 
> View attachment 72835



I've gotta couple more of those at home.


----------



## Infanteer

This thread is looking like a Twitter thread of Ukrainian info ops posts - most serious analysts are admitting that there is very little to no info available on what is going on in Kherson now, so don't take random videos as facts.


----------



## brihard

Infanteer said:


> This thread is looking like a Twitter thread of Ukrainian info ops posts - most serious analysts are admitting that there is very little to no info available on what is going on in Kherson now, so don't take random videos as facts.


What do you figure, a couple days before we begin to get any info we can really rely on, and get a feel as to whether this is just angry shaping or a real push?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Infanteer said:


> This thread is looking like a Twitter thread of Ukrainian info ops posts - most serious analysts are admitting that there is very little to no info available on what is going on in Kherson now, so don't take random videos as facts.



In the meantime, there are 'feel good' stories like this: Stooge Control 


Former Ukrainian Lawmaker Who Became Russia-Appointed Official In Kherson Region Found Dead​

Former Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksiy Kovalyov, who joined the Russia-imposed Kherson regional government after Russian armed forces took over parts of Ukraine's southeast, has been found dead.

An adviser to the Kyiv-controlled regional administration, Serhiy Khlan, said on August 29 that Kovalyov was found dead a day earlier in his house in the town of Hola Prystan.

Ukrainian media reports said Kovalyov was found with a gunshot wound to his head and a Mossberg pump firearm that was officially registered to the former member of Ukraine's ruling Servant of the People party. The reports also said Kovalyov's girlfriend sustained a stabbing wound and was hospitalized.

Russia-imposed authorities did not comment on the reports, but pro-Russian Telegram channels confirmed them.

Several officials appointed by Moscow to areas of Ukraine have died in recent weeks after being attacked.

Last week, Russia-imposed authorities in parts of Ukraine's Zaporizhzhya region said the Moscow-appointed mayor of the Russia-occupied town of Mykhaylivka, Ivan Sushko, was killed by a car bomb.

On August 6, Vitaliy Hura, a Russia-appointed deputy mayor of the Ukrainian city of Nova Kakhovka in the Kherson region, was shot dead by an unidentified assailant while leaving his home while a car bomb in Kherson killed the Russia-appointed head of the directorate for youth policies at the Kherson region's administration, Dmytro Savluchenko, in late June.









						Former Ukrainian Lawmaker Who Became Russia-Appointed Official In Kherson Region Found Dead
					

Former Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksiy Kovalyov, who joined the Russia-imposed Kherson regional government after Russian armed forces took over parts of Ukraine's southeast, has been found dead.




					www.rferl.org


----------



## KevinB

Kherson: Ukraine claims new push in Russian-held region
					

Ukraine is seeking to retake the southern Kherson region - but Russia says the offensive failed.



					www.bbc.com
				




*Ukraine's military says it has broken through Russia's first line of defence in the occupied Kherson region.*
The reported push appears to form part of a long-awaited counter-offensive being launched by Kyiv in an attempt to retake the country's south. 
It follows weeks of Ukrainian attacks aimed at cutting off Russian forces there from main supply routes.
Russia's military claims that Ukrainian troops suffered "heavy losses" during an unsuccessful attacking attempt. 
The claims by both Ukraine and Russia have not been independently verified.
Kherson became the first major Ukrainian city to fall into Russian hands after troops advanced into the city from the Crimean Peninsula in the opening days of the war. 

Early on Monday, Ukraine's Kakhovka operational group in the south said that one regiment of Russian-backed forces had left its positions in the Kherson region. It added that Russian paratroopers providing the back-up had fled the battlefield.
Oleksiy Arestovych, adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky's head of office, later also said that Ukraine's armed forces "have broken through the frontline in several places".


In his late night video address, President Zelensky issued a stark warning to Russian forces: "If they want to survive, it is time for Russian soldiers to flee. Go home."
Explosions and shots were heard for a second day on Tuesday in the regional capital of Kherson. Blasts had earlier been reported in Nova Kakhovka, some 55km (34 miles) north-east and Russia's state-run Ria Novosti news agency reported the city was left without electricity and water supply overnight.
In an update early on Tuesday, a spokesman for Ukraine's southern operational command said 13 Russian command posts had been destroyed, as well as three ammunition depots and a crossing over the Dnipro river.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kremlin-appointed Kherson leader has fled to Russia – reports​*A Moscow-installed leader of occupied Kherson has reportedly fled to Russia, one day after Kyiv announced it had begun its long-awaited counter attack aimed at taking back the southern region from Russian forces.*

Kirill Stremousov, who was appointed deputy head of the Russian-backed Kherson military-civilian administration, has published regular video updates to state-owned Russian news outlets and his Telegram account.

But a Ukrainian activist, Serhii Sternenko, has claimed Stremousov is no longer in Kherson and has instead been filming his recent video updates somewhere near the Cathedral of Annunciation in Voronezh in Russia, which can be seen in the background.

Voronezh is almost 500 miles from Kherson and about 120 miles from the border with Ukraine.

In a series of tweets, Sternenko wrote:



> Traitor to Ukraine and collaborator Stremousov escaped from Kherson and says that Kherson will forever remain Russian ... from Voronezh to Russia.











						Russia-Ukraine war: Kremlin-appointed Kherson leader reportedly flees to Russia; first grain ship docks in Africa – as it happened
					

Deputy head of Russian-backed administration reportedly leaves Ukraine amid counterattack; first shipment of grain arrives in Djibouti




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Some video of HARMs being fired from Mig 29's


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564539358451044353


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Colin Parkinson said:


> Some video of HARMs being fired from Mig 29's
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564539358451044353


Interesting that they are using a civilian GPS unit attached to the cockpit instrument panel.


----------



## Good2Golf

Retired AF Guy said:


> Interesting that they are using a civilian GPS unit attached to the cockpit instrument panel.


Both the Russians and Ukrainians do it.  GLONASS integration into RU OEM aircraft is near non-existent. Garmins are popular, particularly the 496, like in the video.  I’ve flown with the 496 in the past and it’s not a bad unit to have in a pinch.


----------



## Infanteer

Some videos are just worth the watch.  In this case, both videos.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564625890964824064


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564475870034681857

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564843163839258624


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564948304080814082


----------



## KevinB

Allegedly a Russian intercept of UAF breakthrough 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564961820271673346


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> Allegedly a Russian intercept of UAF breakthrough
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564961820271673346


I am skeptical of this because of how narrow it is, if even remotely accurate, I'd be willing to guess its a much wider front, but that's the towns that are taken.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> I am skeptical of this because of how narrow it is, if even remotely accurate, I'd be willing to guess its a much wider front, but that's the towns that are taken.


More have come out with a much larger swath cut into Russian lines.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> More have come out with a much larger swath cut into Russian lines.


----------



## kev994

Apparently someone taught e crop dusting pilots how to fly a helicopter. 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1565000292977999873


----------



## Dana381

kev994 said:


> Apparently someone taught e crop dusting pilots how to fly a helicopter.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1565000292977999873



the crop dusting helicopters here get that low every pass!









						✂️ crop dusting Helicopter
					

15 seconds · Clipped by Trish Weber · Original video "HEADLINE ON CORN AERIAL" by Chris Vankoughnett




					youtube.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Dana381 said:


> the crop dusting helicopters here get that low every pass!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ✂️ crop dusting Helicopter
> 
> 
> 15 seconds · Clipped by Trish Weber · Original video "HEADLINE ON CORN AERIAL" by Chris Vankoughnett
> 
> 
> 
> 
> youtube.com



Yebbut - over the hedge AND under the wires?  Aren't there any flight safety standards....


----------



## Dana381

Kirkhill said:


> Yebbut - over the hedge AND under the wires?  Aren't there any flight safety standards....



I'm pretty sure the wires stop before the path of the helicopter. The video is a little too grainy to tell but at the height of the wires and the height of the helo's they didn't go under them. Even if the first one was low enough the second one wasn't


----------



## RaceAddict

Kirkhill said:


> Yebbut - over the hedge AND under the wires?  Aren't there any flight safety standards....



Pretty sure it looks like the road - and therefore the power lines - drops off down to the left... the helos flew adjacent to it, not under the lines. A Mil-8 itself is over 18 feet tall. I don't know what the European standard is for powerlines, but seems implausible they cleared a hedge while going under the wires.


----------



## MilEME09

Think it's an optical illusion  they do go over the wires. In other news, good article about the fight against Russian propaganda.









						The shit-posting, Twitter-trolling, dog-deploying social media army taking on Putin one meme at a time
					

The North Atlantic Fellas Organization is fighting the Kremlin’s propaganda machine — and winning.




					www.politico.eu


----------



## Kirkhill

Dana381 said:


> I'm pretty sure the wires stop before the path of the helicopter. The video is a little too grainy to tell but at the height of the wires and the height of the helo's they didn't go under them. Even if the first one was low enough the second one wasn't


My eyes playing tricks then...

Cheers.


----------



## Good2Golf

Dana381 said:


> I'm pretty sure the wires stop before the path of the helicopter. The video is a little too grainy to tell but at the height of the wires and the height of the helo's they didn't go under them. Even if the first one was low enough the second one wasn't


Yup.  Not by a long shot.  Perspective is everything.  Good on them but they’re well clear of anything.  Longer focal length distorts the perceived height of the Hip over the obstacles.  They were crossing over the lowest point of the dip in the road. The nose wheel (lowest point on a Hip at cruise speed) was a solid half-rotor over the pole at the wire’s lowest point. Hip has a 70’ rotor diameter…10’ more than even a Chinook’s individual rotor (60’). They’re 10m/30’+ above the wires. 



Still nice flying, smooth, no flinching or silly theatrics at low level…solid concentrated doing the business.  I’d fly with these folks any day.


----------



## Fishbone Jones

Kirkhill said:


> My eyes playing tricks then...
> 
> Cheers.


Try this. It's like holding the fish in your outstretched hand, closer to the camera. Your 2 pound bass is now looking like a 5 pounder.


----------



## MilEME09

Shoot and scoot


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564758619131940867


----------



## The Bread Guy

From the "Hard to Insure Russian Occupational Categories" file ...








						Ravil Maganov: Russian Lukoil chief dies in 'fall from hospital window'
					

Lukoil boss Ravil Maganov is the latest Russian businessman to die in mysterious circumstances.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> Shoot and scoot
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564758619131940867



You can hear the swearing from North America


----------



## rmc_wannabe

daftandbarmy said:


> You can hear the swearing from North America


Im pretty sure all of RCAS just lost their weekend....


----------



## MilEME09

Sobering reminder of the human cost of war









						WSJ News Exclusive | Ukrainian Soldiers Say They Are Advancing in the South, but at a Cost
					

Ukrainian army units are pushing toward the city of Kherson, but Ukrainian officials and military analysts have said losses could be high, even if the offensive is successful.




					www.wsj.com


----------



## CBH99

The Bread Guy said:


> From the "Hard to Insure Russian Occupational Categories" file ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ravil Maganov: Russian Lukoil chief dies in 'fall from hospital window'
> 
> 
> Lukoil boss Ravil Maganov is the latest Russian businessman to die in mysterious circumstances.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com


What are some of the theories behind the rash of mysterious deaths of Russia’s top 1%?

A series of assassinations of high profile people as a message to Putin that he could very well be next?

Putin ordering the purge himself, for his own reasons?

Maybe I’ve just missed it, but has Putin been doing much in terms of public appearances lately?  



(I personally haven’t seen a public appearance since shortly after the war began… there’s a good chance I could have just missed it.)


----------



## YZT580

CBH99 said:


> What are some of the theories behind the rash of mysterious deaths of Russia’s top 1%?
> 
> A series of assassinations of high profile people as a message to Putin that he could very well be next?
> 
> Putin ordering the purge himself, for his own reasons?
> 
> Maybe I’ve just missed it, but has Putin been doing much in terms of public appearances lately?
> 
> 
> 
> (I personally haven’t seen a public appearance since shortly after the war began… there’s a good chance I could have just missed it.)


He has met with the Turkish and Iranian governments.  As for public appearances from what I have read, he has a couple of doubles to deal with crowds safely


----------



## dapaterson

Windows make widows.


----------



## CBH99

Kirkhill said:


> Yebbut - over the hedge AND under the wires?  Aren't there any flight safety standards....


Ppppfffttttt...rules...

Made to be broken 😉


----------



## KevinB

CBH99 said:


> Ppppfffttttt...rules...
> 
> Made to be broken 😉


Combat sets it’s own rules.


----------



## Kirkhill

rmc_wannabe said:


> Im pretty sure all of RCAS just lost their weekend....




One of the other tidbits I have noticed about the Ukrainian use of the guns is that in the videos they are careful to only show one gun at a time.  They seem to be careful not to show multiple guns in the same frame.  I'm wondering if that is just PR/Opsec or if that is reflective of actual usage - either in the sense that they are widely dispersing their guns and concentrating fires or in the sense of actually only employing individual guns against precision targets.  Or a combination of all of the above.

It also may say something about the nature of the dispositions of the Russians - ie mass attacks versus small dispersed elements.


----------



## MilEME09

IAEA calls out Russia....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1565674984202199042


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> IAEA calls out Russia....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1565674984202199042


I saw that earlier and you really got to wonder WTF Russia is smoking.  

It’s like they really want NATO to actually hammer them into the Stone Age.


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> I saw that earlier and you really got to wonder WTF Russia is smoking.
> 
> It’s like they really want NATO to actually hammer them into the Stone Age.


Devils advocate, most Russian soldiers come from the poorest areas of Russia because the rich just pay off a doctor to say they can't serve. As a result you have a very low level of education for your soldiers who think this makes sense.


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> Devils advocate, most Russian soldiers come from the poorest areas of Russia because the rich just pay off a doctor to say they can't serve. As a result you have a very low level of education for your soldiers who think this makes sense.



You've just nicely described much of the British Army


----------



## FJAG

MilEME09 said:


> IAEA calls out Russia....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1565674984202199042


I'd previously thought that the IAEA team could use a gunner with training in crater analysis. It would very quickly sort out the issue of what direction the round/rocket/bomb came from.

🍻


----------



## brihard

FJAG said:


> I'd previously thought that the IAEA team could use a gunner with training in crater analysis. It would very quickly sort out the issue of what direction the round/rocket/bomb came from.
> 
> 🍻


Probably not a skillset they’ve historically needed much.


----------



## Good2Golf

brihard said:


> Probably not a skillset they’ve historically needed much.


What…crater analysis?


Let’s hope not… 😉


----------



## OldSolduer

MilEME09 said:


> Devils advocate, most Russian soldiers come from the poorest areas of Russia because the rich just pay off a doctor to say they can't serve. As a result you have a very low level of education for your soldiers who think this makes sense.


And it was like that when it was the USSR. The children of the "upper class" were privileged and sheltered. 

I am still wondering if Stalin murdered Lenin though....


----------



## Eaglelord17

Kirkhill said:


> One of the other tidbits I have noticed about the Ukrainian use of the guns is that in the videos they are careful to only show one gun at a time.  They seem to be careful not to show multiple guns in the same frame.  I'm wondering if that is just PR/Opsec or if that is reflective of actual usage - either in the sense that they are widely dispersing their guns and concentrating fires or in the sense of actually only employing individual guns against precision targets.  Or a combination of all of the above.
> 
> It also may say something about the nature of the dispositions of the Russians - ie mass attacks versus small dispersed elements.


My understanding is that they are generally only using one or two guns in a location, shooting and quickly scooting to help avoid counterbattery fire. I also believe they are synchronizing multiple locations firing at the same time to spread out the amount of potential counterbattery targets as well.


----------



## McG

Maple Resolve should take note here. Is it doing any better?

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1565574017997832197


----------



## dapaterson

Canada isn't getting beaten up by UKR, therefore Maple Resolve is successful, obviously.


----------



## MilEME09

One for you tankers, possibly the longest tank kill recorded at just over 10k meters


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564983903475175424


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Interesting








						The Involuntary Ally: Iranian Arms In Ukraine
					






					www.oryxspioenkop.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Meanwhile, Germany is going to be looking for more gas and suddenly nuclear might regain it's charm









						Russia’s Gazprom indefinitely closes Nord Stream 1 Pipeline to Europe - Usa Today Sun
					

The Russian energy giant Gazprom scrapped its Saturday deadline and indefinitely extended its gas cuts to Europe. The state-owned energy company cited urgent maintenance was behind its reasoning Friday and did not provide a date when it intends to reopen the Nord Stream 1 Pipeline, which...



					www.usatodaysun.com


----------



## Kirkhill

The Ukrainians are doing well in Kherson.​​


> ‘My time has come’: Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov says he wants to quit​President of Chechnya, and one of Vladimir Putin’s biggest supporters, declares he doesn’t want to ‘outstay’ his welcome






> Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen warlord who is one of the biggest supporters of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, has said that he wants to quit.
> 
> In a video on his Telegram channel, Mr Kadyrov said that he had been president of Chechnya in Russia’s North Caucasus for 15 years and didn’t want to “outstay” his welcome.
> 
> “We have a proverb among Caucasians, Chechens. No matter how respected and long-awaited a guest is, if he leaves on time, then it is even more pleasant,” he said in the video shot in his luxurious palace in Grozny.
> 
> “I think that my time has also come.” Mr Kadyrov is a keen social media user and in typical fashion laughed and grinned throughout the short video.
> 
> Vocal Putin supporter​He was promoted as Chechnya’s leader by Mr Putin in 2007 and has been a vocal supporter of the Russian president ever since, backing the initial invasion of Ukraine in February with his fighters.
> 
> Mr Kadyrov’s father, Akhmat, had fought Russian forces in the first Chechen war in the mid-1990s but switched sides for the second war a few years later.
> 
> He was made leader of Chechnya by Mr Putin in 2000 but was killed by a bomb in 2004.
> 
> Mr Kadyrov’s video suggesting that he may quit as Chechnya’s leader comes as the Kremlin’s six-month war in Ukraine stalls.
> 
> Western analysts were surprised by Mr Kadyrov’s video.
> 
> ‘Drastic shift of tone’​Samuel Ramani, an associate fellow at London’s Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, said that it would be a massive blow to Mr Putin if Mr Kadyrov did actually follow through on his threat to resign.
> 
> “This is a drastic shift in tone, as just days ago, Kadyrov stated that his Chechen Kadyrovtsy units would be prepared to advance all the way to Europe,” he said.
> 
> Other analysts were more sceptical. “He has said things like this in the past,” said Ivan Klyszcz, a North Caucasus analyst, who is based at the University of Tartu in Estonia.
> 
> “These typically arrive when he wants to get something out of Putin, at the very least a public expression of support.”
> 
> Despite their feared reputation, Chechen fighters have generally underperformed in Ukraine.
> 
> They have been mocked as the “TikTok battalion”, a reference to their interest in filming themselves messing around with weapons and captured motorbikes.
> 
> Chechen fighters were prominent in the first few months of the war but this has since waned.




This comes amidst other reports of Chechens and Buryats fighting when the Chechens shoot Buryats trying to retreat.


----------



## Kirkhill

Do I just want this to feel right?  It feels right to me.









						'We Don't Have An Army': Russian Father Volunteers After His Son Killed In Ukraine, But Returns Disillusioned
					

After his son, a Russian soldier, was killed in Ukraine, Rinat Sadykov volunteered to join the Russian forces. Back at his home in Siberia, he discusses the loss of his son and his disappointment with the state of the Russian military in eastern Ukraine.




					www.rferl.org


----------



## Kirkhill

Another one for the Flyboys.

There are a lot of long river valleys in  Ukraine - flying below the horizon of the steppes.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/x4vt9k


----------



## Kirkhill

Live fire, fire and movement training.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/x4vz69


----------



## Kirkhill

Interesting video on the alternative logistics employed by the Russians in the Kherson area - dated Aug 31.


----------



## Kirkhill

The experimentation continues









						Drone boats are joining the Ukraine war. But will they matter?
					

This British donation of drone submarines follows a Pentagon announcement in April that the U.S. was sending unmanned surface vessels to Ukraine.




					www.sandboxx.us


----------



## Skysix

Whatever happened to Soldier35 anyway?


----------



## brihard

Skysix said:


> Whatever happened to Soldier35 anyway?


Probably cooked in a brewed up BTR by now.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

brihard said:


> Probably cooked in a brewed up BTR by now


Awww shucks.... that's awful.... 

Anyways


----------



## MilEME09

I think this might be one of those history book moments


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1566473524914651138


----------



## Haggis

brihard said:


> Probably cooked in a brewed up BTR by now.


Does that happen a lot to CoD gamers in their basements? Asking for a neighbour.


----------



## Blackadder1916

Skysix said:


> Whatever happened to Soldier35 anyway?



Googling his handle will provide links to a few other forums that also have a military interest.  A couple of them, like us, seem to have got fed up with him, but there was at least one where he posted his usual today.


----------



## Good2Golf

brihard said:


> Probably cooked in a brewed up BTR by now.


…or was underage and is now driving around a white Lada for an older sibling’s glorious but finite participation in the SMO…


----------



## brihard

Haggis said:


> Does that happen a lot to CoD gamers in their basements? Asking for a neighbour.





Blackadder1916 said:


> Googling his handle will provide links to a few other forums that also have a military interest.  A couple of them, like us, seem to have got fed up with him, but there was at least one where he posted his usual today.



I figured he would have been conscripted by the motherland by now.


----------



## MilEME09

You will never find OHSA vilolations as great as the Russian army......


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1566466081807556610


----------



## daftandbarmy

The pips are squeaking...

Putin facing army capitulation as troops 'riot' and refuse to fight on Kherson front​VLADIMIR PUTIN is facing a major rebellion by his troops on the southern front, as Ukraine's counteroffensive gathers pace.​
In an update posted to its Facebook page on Sunday, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine wrote: "In the area of the settlement of Kherson, servicemen of the 127th regiment of the 1st army corps rioted and wrote a letter refusing to participate in hostilities.

"It is known that one of the reasons is unsatisfactory all-round support: in the advanced positions, the personnel of this regiment was left even without water."

They added: "Some of the servicemen were taken away by enemy counterintelligence representatives, their further fate is unknown."









						Putin facing army capitulation as troops 'riot' and refuse to fight
					

VLADIMIR PUTIN is facing a major rebellion by his troops on the southern front, as Ukraine's counteroffensive gathers pace.




					www.express.co.uk


----------



## torg003

"...their further fate is unknown.", a good guess would be a bullet to the back of the head.


----------



## brihard

daftandbarmy said:


> The pips are squeaking...
> 
> Putin facing army capitulation as troops 'riot' and refuse to fight on Kherson front​VLADIMIR PUTIN is facing a major rebellion by his troops on the southern front, as Ukraine's counteroffensive gathers pace.​
> In an update posted to its Facebook page on Sunday, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine wrote: "In the area of the settlement of Kherson, servicemen of the 127th regiment of the 1st army corps rioted and wrote a letter refusing to participate in hostilities.
> 
> "It is known that one of the reasons is unsatisfactory all-round support: in the advanced positions, the personnel of this regiment was left even without water."
> 
> They added: "Some of the servicemen were taken away by enemy counterintelligence representatives, their further fate is unknown."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Putin facing army capitulation as troops 'riot' and refuse to fight
> 
> 
> VLADIMIR PUTIN is facing a major rebellion by his troops on the southern front, as Ukraine's counteroffensive gathers pace.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.express.co.uk


Those are troops from the so-called “Donetsk People’s Republic”. I.e., Donetsk territorials. They have little vested interest in participating in aggression farther into Ukraine, particularly with Ukraine resuming some offensive action in Donetsk. I would be very hesitant to read much into this and to assume it represents anything beyond weakness in the already not particularly good troops from Donetsk and Luhansk. I would not generalize this to the actual Russian army, nor characterize it as a “major rebellion”.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Multiple counter-offensives? Even better!









						ABC World News Tonight on Instagram: "EXCLUSIVE: The Ukrainian president speaks to @davidmuirabc in Kyiv at a new stage of the war as Pres. Zelenskyy hints at multiple counteroffensives. Zelenskyy says Russia is using Ukraine’s nuclear plant as a “nu
					

ABC World News Tonight shared a post on Instagram: "EXCLUSIVE: The Ukrainian president speaks to @davidmuirabc in Kyiv at a new stage of the war as Pres. Zelenskyy hints at multiple counteroffensives. Zelenskyy says Russia is using Ukraine’s nuclear plant as a “nuclear weapon.” #ukraine...




					www.instagram.com


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1566968078054957057


----------



## MilEME09

McG said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1566968078054957057


Russian guns using North Korean shells, spotted by Iranian drones....oh boy this is a mess


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> Russian guns using North Korean shells, spotted by Iranian drones....oh boy this is a mess


Are we going to see Chinese MiG's newly painted in Russian colours but piloted by Chinese next?  What about Iranian drone pilots located in Donetsk?  There's already been talk about Syrian 'volunteer's going over to the Ukraine.
World War fought by proxies.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Are we going to see Chinese MiG's newly painted in Russian colours but piloted by Chinese next?  What about Iranian drone pilots located in Donetsk?  There's already been talk about Syrian 'volunteer's going over to the Ukraine.
> World War fought by proxies.


I doubt China has any interest in losing their Military hardware or soldiers in Russia’s great divestment.


----------



## CBH99

Czech_pivo said:


> Are we going to see Chinese MiG's newly painted in Russian colours but piloted by Chinese next?  What about Iranian drone pilots located in Donetsk?  There's already been talk about Syrian 'volunteer's going over to the Ukraine.
> World War fought by proxies.


Shitty proxies, tho...


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> I doubt China has any interest in losing their Military hardware or soldiers in Russia’s great divestment.


Very well could be true, but it could also be a very rare opportunity for some of their pilots to actually gain some semblance of combat/real world experience.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Very well could be true, but it could also be a very rare opportunity for some of their pilots to actually gain some semblance of combat/real world experience.


I think they know if one of their pilots got downed and snagged by the Ukrainians, the butchers bill would be vastly higher than any potential gain.
  Plus - they have see how Russian equipment fairs versus Western equipment -- no need to bleed to see that.


----------



## KevinB

Why stop now Russia 
Seems you want to max the most War Crimes as possible in 2022

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1566949669867061248


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Ukrainian drones


----------



## OldSolduer

KevinB said:


> Why stop now Russia
> Seems you want to max the most War Crimes as possible in 2022
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1566949669867061248


Similar to the combatants putting ammo etc inside churches in the FRY then bitching when the church got bombarded.


----------



## suffolkowner

McG said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1566968078054957057


interesting, do the north koreans produce a lot of ammo or are they relying on stockpiles as well? I wonder what condition they will be in?
Somewhere upthread there was a twiiter graphic on Russian artillery usage and estimation on how long stockpiles would last, I guess things are worse than expected


----------



## TacticalTea

So, word going out that we can expect some news coming out of Kharkiv oblast in the near term.

Funnily enough, just two days ago I was thinking to myself "Hm, after Kherson they'll probably want to hit the other extremity of the frontline, Kharkiv, where'd they'd seen significant successes previously". 

I didn't expect a surprise move so soon!


----------



## daftandbarmy

I laughed a little too loudly...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1567325070246256640


----------



## brihard

TacticalTea said:


> So, word going out that we can expect some news coming out of Kharkiv oblast in the near term.
> 
> Funnily enough, just two days ago I was thinking to myself "Hm, after Kherson they'll probably want to hit the other extremity of the frontline, Kharkiv, where'd they'd seen significant successes previously".
> 
> I didn't expect a surprise move so soon!


Remains to be seen whether they’re simply taking advantage of local correlations of forces to make (and talk up) small moves, or if there’s anything substantial to this.

Hopefully Ukr has assets able to help exploit if in fact something small and local opens up to a bigger opportunity.


----------



## TacticalTea

brihard said:


> Remains to be seen whether they’re simply taking advantage of local correlations of forces to make (and talk up) small moves, or if there’s anything substantial to this.
> 
> Hopefully Ukr has assets able to help exploit if in fact something small and local opens up to a bigger opportunity.


Planned or opportune, we know that Russia moved significant forces from East to West in response to the Kherson counteroffensive.

Hard to tell the scale of the action, as AFU have shown to operate in a manner diametrically opposite that of the Russian military. (The latter amounting to little more than "Rush B"... Gamers will know).


----------



## MilEME09

brihard said:


> Remains to be seen whether they’re simply taking advantage of local correlations of forces to make (and talk up) small moves, or if there’s anything substantial to this.
> 
> Hopefully Ukr has assets able to help exploit if in fact something small and local opens up to a bigger opportunity.


Reportly Balakliya is cut off and the Ukrainian army has demanded their surrender. However it is reported the defenders are Spetsnaz so I am skeptical they will, if true.


----------



## Eaglelord17

TacticalTea said:


> Planned or opportune, we know that Russia moved significant forces from East to West in response to the Kherson counteroffensive.
> 
> Hard to tell the scale of the action, as AFU have shown to operate in a manner diametrically opposite that of the Russian military. (The latter amounting to little more than "Rush B"... Gamers will know).


The biggest thing is now Russia is reacting to Ukraine, as opposed to Ukraine reacting to Russia. 

First it was Russia which had the initiative, then slowly Ukraine countered their actions. Eventually they ground them to a more or less standstill. Now Ukraine has the initiative and is making Russia dance to their tune. I wouldn't be shocked if Kherson ends up just being a distraction for a alternative counter offensive (possibly in the North, pushing to cut off their supply lines from Russia) after Russia has moved all their troops to respond to Ukraines counter attack. Time will tell.


----------



## Kat Stevens

MilEME09 said:


> Reportly Balakliya is cut off and the Ukrainian army has demanded their surrender. However it is reported the defenders are Spetsnaz so I am skeptical they will, if true.


Even Spazz Nuts get hungry'


----------



## rmc_wannabe

All if it has echoes of the Iran Iraq war. This back and forth can go on for years. I hope Russia runs out of steam after the Umrainai  counter offensive and doesn't get desperate like Saddam did and use CBRN as a tactic.


----------



## Weinie

rmc_wannabe said:


> All if it has echoes of the Iran Iraq war. This back and forth can go on for years. I hope Russia runs out of steam after the Umrainai  counter offensive and doesn't get desperate like S and use CBRN as a tactic.


That is my concern as well. When Ukraine starts "winning", what other options will Russia have?


----------



## KevinB

Weinie said:


> That is my concern as well. When Ukraine starts "winning", what other options will Russia have?


Run Away, Run Away, Run Away…


----------



## Weinie

KevinB said:


> Run Away, Run Away, Run Away…


I hope you have made the correct assessment on COA's. I am somewhat (some would say stupidly) concerned that VVP will opt for the tac nuke option if things go bad.


----------



## TacticalTea

Eaglelord17 said:


> The biggest thing is now Russia is reacting to Ukraine, as opposed to Ukraine reacting to Russia.
> 
> First it was Russia which had the initiative, then slowly Ukraine countered their actions. Eventually they ground them to a more or less standstill. Now Ukraine has the initiative and is making Russia dance to their tune. I wouldn't be shocked if Kherson ends up just being a distraction for a alternative counter offensive (possibly in the North, pushing to cut off their supply lines from Russia) after Russia has moved all their troops to respond to Ukraines counter attack. Time will tell.


Exactly. This is what is so great about this action - provided it is successful - regardless of what it's scale might actually be.

With regards to escalation, all that is necessary is for the US to reassure Russia that any use of WMDs would be met with a response in kind.


----------



## Good2Golf

Weinie said:


> I hope you have made the correct assessment on COA's. I am somewhat (some would say stupidly) concerned that VVP will opt for the tac nuke option if things go bad.


 
Would a tac nuke be any worse than a triggered meltdown at Zaporizhzhia power plant at this point? (Including total mass off irradiated material and persistence post-event, amongst the assessment)


----------



## Weinie

Good2Golf said:


> Would a tac nuke be any worse than a triggered meltdown at Zaporizhzhia power plant at this point? (Including total mass off irradiated material and persistence post-event, amongst the assessment)


Either one would be catastrophic in terms of "fallout." I want Ukraine to prevail as much as anyone on this site. I also live 8 km from SHAPE HQ and have 4 kids.


----------



## Good2Golf

Weinie said:


> Either one would be catastrophic in terms of "fallout." I want Ukraine to prevail as much as anyone on this site. I also live 8 km from SHAPE HQ and have 4 kids.


Ack that, Weinie.  If there’s going to be a tac nuke used, my bet is on Kharkiv.  Zapoizhzhia would be worse IMO, for extent and persistence.  A 7-15kT air burst (not as bad as ground event for ejected matter) would be bad for immediate zone, but Zaporizhzhia has larger units than Chernobyl and a bit closer to the rest of Europe so overall health impact to many more would be worse.  

Separately, I’d rather be living beside SHAPE HQ than some of the outlying stations/bases…if ever there was a red line, a direct HQ hit would be it…VVp had enough control that he’s not there yet. I think he’ll garrison the RuAF along the Crimea-Donbas strip before he goes all Tropic Thunder in UKR and beyond.


----------



## KevinB

Weinie said:


> I hope you have made the correct assessment on COA's. I am somewhat (some would say stupidly) concerned that VVP will opt for the tac nuke option if things go bad.


I don’t think that VVP wants to test the US or UK on the response plan to that.


----------



## brihard

Good2Golf said:


> Would a tac nuke be any worse than a triggered meltdown at Zaporizhzhia power plant at this point? (Including total mass off irradiated material and persistence post-event, amongst the assessment)


Arguably, the meltdown would be worse than a small number of battlefield warheads, in terms of the human impact.


----------



## Good2Golf

brihard said:


> Arguably, the meltdown would be worse than a small number of battlefield warheads, in terms of the human impact.


Indeed.  There are tonnes of fissile material in a reactor core, while it is in the order of hundreds of grams for a small fusion warhead.

_Edit to add_: yes, one’s fission and one’s fusion, and fusion has greater per/unit energy output, but the sheet scale of a fissile event at Zaporizhzhia is proportionally much greater than a tac nuke (several-to-tens of kT) fusion event and add to that the terrestrial contamination of a ground-event…not good.


----------



## KevinB

Good2Golf said:


> Indeed.  There are tonnes of fissile material in a reactor core, while it is in the order of hundreds of grams for a small fusion warhead.


Come on what possibly could go wrong with a fire of tons of burning Uranium 🤡


----------



## Skysix

9


Weinie said:


> That is my concern as well. When Ukraine starts "winning", what other options will Russia have?


Depose/Dispose of Putin and sycophants


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> Come on what possibly could go wrong with a fire of tons of burning Uranium 🤡



ESPECIALLY in the Ukraine, right? 









						Chernobyl disaster - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Skysix said:


> 9
> 
> Depose/Dispose of Putin and sycophants


Likely for someone worse


----------



## MilEME09

brihard said:


> Arguably, the meltdown would be worse than a small number of battlefield warheads, in terms of the human impact.


Believe it not a melt doen would be the best thing to happen. I was listening to a podcast a few weeks ago by a nuclear engineer that explained it but essentially a melt down is actually a fail safe in reactors. Below the reactor is a giant block of special  boron infused concrete. In a proper melt down the fuel rods would melt through and reach the boron which then stops the nuclear reaction. You then wait about 3 weeks for it to cool down, shovel it all up, repair the reactor and you are back in business.


The two largest nuclear disasters in history are a result of human interference in this process. Fukushima the plant manager wouldn't allow them to let the core melt down as designed as an example.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Believe it not a melt doen would be the best thing to happen. I was listening to a podcast a few weeks ago by a nuclear engineer that explained it but essentially a melt down is actually a fail safe in reactors. Below the reactor is a giant block of special  boron infused concrete. In a proper melt down the fuel rods would melt through and reach the boron which then stops the nuclear reaction. You then wait about 3 weeks for it to cool down, shovel it all up, repair the reactor and you are back in business.
> 
> 
> The two largest nuclear disasters in history are a result of human interference in this process. Fukushima the plant manager wouldn't allow them to let the core melt down as designed as an example.


That’s not exactly the theory - and in practice we have seen that dampeners haven’t worked.   
   Think of a nuclear reactor like a pressurized water line - what happens when the pressure is exceeded… 

In the case of Chernobyl, it was human error and design flaws - but the reactor exploded and caused significant harm to the surrounding areas. 

With the Russians lobbing shells from (and oddly into it - likely to try to false flag the Ukrainians) the odds of an explosion that damages the containment system are higher than anyone would tend to like.


----------



## CBH99

KevinB said:


> I don’t think that VVP wants to test the US or UK on the response plan to that.


My concern is that his thinking is so different than ours, he wouldn't see it in the same dynamic...

 In one scenario, I could see him sacrificing a small or insignificant part of Russia to a response,  If it means he gets to keep even a little bit of his border gains.   We have seen equally irrational decisions already made... 🤷‍♂️

Re burning Ukrainian wheat fields as Russian forces retreat,  after a record low harvest.  


(As far as I know, Russia still has not publicly denied or condemned The statements made by their own embassy about murdering Ukrainian POW's...  I truly don't know how many f**** Putin still has in him.)


----------



## MilEME09

As a sign of how badly Kharkiv is going for Russia, video has come out of a Lt.Col captured by Ukrainian forces. A lot of videos of POWs coming out, all suggest fair treatment, though it's a catch 22, they really shouldn't be video taping the POWs as they are captured, but they need to show the international community that captured Russians are treated according to the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions


----------



## Kat Stevens

MilEME09 said:


> As a sign of how badly Kharkiv is going for Russia, video has come out of a Lt.Col captured by Ukrainian forces. A lot of videos of POWs coming out, all suggest fair treatment, though it's a catch 22, they really shouldn't be video taping the POWs as they are captured, but they need to show the international community that captured Russians are treated according to the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions


And they would be the only Slavs in the history of warfare to do so...


----------



## Skysix

Ukraine Situation Report: Kharkiv Counter-Offensive May Have Begun
					

There are major indications that Ukraine has opened-up a second offensive in the northeast as its operation in the south gains ground.




					www.thedrive.com
				




So if they manage to land those millions of 152 shells in occupied Ukraine or Russia, just exactly how much stock of 155 dumb shells are left to be  released in the west? And how many smart shells?

I am frankly dumbfounded that the various NATO 155 manufacturers are not running 24/7 to produce restock and allow old stock to be shipped. Beurocratic supply contracting processes need to be short circuited in times of war. Which this is. We just are not physically bleeding.

The sooner Ukraine can reclaim its borders the less lives will be lost and the sooner economies can return to normal. Dribs and drabs insults those that are fighting and actually is causing more deaths. "Go hard or go home" seems to be a vestigal trait in these days of gender nonoffensive participation trophys and virtue signalling at the soverign level.

(Goes back to rocking in the chair in the porch)


----------



## Spencer100

kev994 said:


> Apparently someone taught e crop dusting pilots how to fly a helicopter.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1565000292977999873


That's is


Skysix said:


> Ukraine Situation Report: Kharkiv Counter-Offensive May Have Begun
> 
> 
> There are major indications that Ukraine has opened-up a second offensive in the northeast as its operation in the south gains ground.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedrive.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So if they manage to land those millions of 152 shells in occupied Ukraine or Russia, just exactly how much stock of 155 dumb shells are left to be  released in the west? And how many smart shells?
> 
> I am frankly dumbfounded that the various NATO 155 manufacturers are not running 24/7 to produce restock and allow old stock to be shipped. Beurocratic supply contracting processes need to be short circuited in times of war. Which this is. We just are not physically bleeding.
> 
> The sooner Ukraine can reclaim its borders the less lives will be lost and the sooner economies can return to normal. Dribs and drabs insults those that are fighting and actually is causing more deaths. "Go hard or go home" seems to be a vestigal trait in these days of gender nonoffensive participation trophys and virtue signalling at the soverign level.
> 
> (Goes back to rocking in the chair in the porch)


You are assuming all the powers that be want that outcome.  I don't think that is evident at all.  The longer Russia is bled or Russia builds new customers and allies caters to different interests.


----------



## MilEME09

Who's ready to donate our C3s?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1567635476542099456


----------



## OldSolduer

Skysix said:


> 9
> 
> Depose/Dispose of Putin and sycophants


Honestly I am somewhat surprised this has not occurred already.


----------



## TacticalTea

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1567653882360217600As expected, Ukraine moving forward towards Kupiansk, pressuring Izyum-area Russian GLOCs.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

MilEME09 said:


> Who's ready to donate our C3s?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1567635476542099456


What about us? We need them as well!


----------



## rmc_wannabe

MilEME09 said:


> As a sign of how badly Kharkiv is going for Russia, video has come out of a Lt.Col captured by Ukrainian forces. A lot of videos of POWs coming out, all suggest fair treatment, though it's a catch 22, they really shouldn't be video taping the POWs as they are captured, but they need to show the international community that captured Russians are treated according to the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions


I honestly think the Russo-Ukrainian War will see a revision of the Geneva Convention in regards to video taping POWs. It's been crucial not as a weapon of war, but as a way to counter disinformation campaigns on both sides.

Tie in the fact that the ICRC no longer holds the respect or sway it does in modern conflicts, video evidence of kind treatment (without forced confessions or other humiliations) provides solid evidence against any accusations of prisoner maltreatment.


----------



## Kirkhill

Footage, from behind the firing points, of a Ukrainian MRLS battery barrage.  The degree of dispersion of the launchers is noteworthy.  


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/x8hpgm


----------



## RangerRay

Kirkhill said:


> Footage, from behind the firing points, of a Ukrainian MRLS battery barrage.  The degree of dispersion of the launchers is noteworthy.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/x8hpgm


Someone had a bad day…


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1567754751768420353


----------



## Good2Golf

A follow-up for more low flying…this time the UAF getting close to harvesting the wheat with this flight… 👍🏼 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1566352114808389633


----------



## MilEME09

Some crazy combat footage from kharkiv Coming out today


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1567896297784414208


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Some crazy combat footage from kharkiv Coming out today
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1567896297784414208


Geez if it wasn't for the muzzle flashes back at them, one might mistake it for a training ex for a new gunner.

Free gunning a M2 in a Hummer turret isn't really the most effective way to employ that, nor the lack of additional ammo stuck in the turret leads one to assume these aren't very experienced troops...
--


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> Geez if it wasn't for the muzzle flashes back at them, one might mistake it for a training ex for a new gunner.
> 
> Free gunning a M2 in a Hummer turret isn't really the most effective way to employ that, nor the lack of additional ammo stuck in the turret leads one to assume these aren't very experienced troops...
> --


You can hear English being spoken, one assumes it's the foreign legion then who mostly had combat experience before the war. I think its a matter of not caring as there were bigger priorities


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> Geez if it wasn't for the muzzle flashes back at them, one might mistake it for a training ex for a new gunner.
> 
> Free gunning a M2 in a Hummer turret isn't really the most effective way to employ that, nor the lack of additional ammo stuck in the turret leads one to assume these aren't very experienced troops...
> --



Adrenaline can overcome the finest training in the world.


----------



## Good2Golf

In fairness, the turret gunner wasn’t just rocking the Ma Deuce… 😉 

Doing pretty well, I’d say…you could hear rounds singing by and dirt kicked up near them by return fire.


----------



## MilEME09

Crazy advances


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1567950892111994885


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> You can hear English being spoken, one assumes it's the foreign legion then who mostly had combat experience before the war. I think its a matter of not caring as there were bigger priorities





daftandbarmy said:


> Adrenaline can overcome the finest training in the world.





Good2Golf said:


> In fairness, the turret gunner wasn’t just rocking the Ma Deuce… 😉
> 
> Doing pretty well, I’d say…you could hear rounds singing by and dirt kicked up near them by return fire.


Not negating the incoming fire -- my point was that you need to prep the turret for battle -- extra ammo, AT-4's whatever should be up in the turret easily grabbed by the turret gunner.
    Way too much time wasted asking for stuff to be passed up - that they could have had a really bad day during the rather long and repeated lulls caused by that, if the enemy was a little more squared away.


----------



## Good2Golf

All good…never done the turret thing myself, but yeah, I could see there was a bit of fiddle-ducking going on.  Fortunately I think Ivan was even more messed up on the other end… 😉


----------



## KevinB

Good2Golf said:


> All good…never done the turret thing myself, but yeah, I could see there was a bit of fiddle-ducking going on.  Fortunately I think Ivan was even more messed up on the other end… 😉


It is sometimes better to be lucky than good 

Also on rewatching it appears he's yelling "ammo, ammo, 50 ammo" -- and they pass him an AT-4...
   - also for some reason he decides to pass back down the expended tube  -- I'm tossing that overboard as it's just a big pile of trash.


----------



## MilEME09

These advances are a commanders wet dream


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568008010185981953


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> It is sometimes better to be lucky than good
> 
> Also on rewatching it appears he's yelling "ammo, ammo, 50 ammo" -- and they pass him an AT-4...
> - also for some reason he decides to pass back down the expended tube  -- I'm tossing that overboard as it's just a big pile of trash.


The internet always provides:


----------



## KevinB

More equipment to Ukraine and Allie’s. US unveils $2B in military aid for Europe, arms for Ukraine


----------



## Skysix

English lauguage Polish news

'the Ukrainian war, at this stage, cost Russia over 50,000 casualties but has seriously strengthened Russia as a state'  Putin


----------



## MilEME09

Turns out the Lt.colonel reported captured has been identified by the Ukrainians as Lieutenant General Andrei Sychevoi, commander of the western military district. According to them he tried to switch uniforms with someone of lower rank to avoid being identified.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

MilEME09 said:


> Turns out the Lt.colonel reported captured has been identified by the Ukrainians as Lieutenant General Andrei Sychevoi, commander of the western military district. According to them he tried to switch uniforms with someone of lower rank to avoid being identified.


That's a paddlin'.


----------



## FJAG

KevinB said:


> More equipment to Ukraine and Allie’s. US unveils $2B in military aid for Europe, arms for Ukraine


The German, French and Canadian support (or lack thereof) is getting more and more embarrassing.

🤦‍♂️


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> More equipment to Ukraine and Allie’s. US unveils $2B in military aid for Europe, arms for Ukraine


View attachment 72_Ukraine_Donors.png


72 Donor countries to the Ukrainian cause, 50 of them part of the NATO contact group.

Interesting that even China has thrown a couple of humanitarian pennies into the kitty.

Also interesting that there are, apparently no African donors.


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/x97rba


----------



## Kirkhill

Subject to confirmation.



__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/x98c53


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/x9865r


----------



## McG




----------



## Kirkhill

I reckon the LAVs might work in the assault after all.....


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/x9405k


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> I reckon the LAVs might work in the assault after all.....
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/x9405k


I mean a Carl G took at a T-90M, anything is possible


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> Turns out the Lt.colonel reported captured has been identified by the Ukrainians as Lieutenant General Andrei Sychevoi, commander of the western military district. According to them he tried to switch uniforms with someone of lower rank to avoid being identified.


Losing a theatre commander has to mean they had some real, no shit surprise on a level higher than very local. For him to be close enough to be captured means the Ukrainians pulled something fast and slick, or the Russians really shit the bed. Plus capturing him and, presumably, capturing or neutralizing his command staff would likely leave major formations flailing for direction and not realizing, at least initially, that there’s no Niner. That could explain in part delayed responses to Ukraine’s fast attack.


----------



## MilEME09

brihard said:


> Losing a theatre commander has to mean they had some real, no shit surprise on a level higher than very local. For him to be close enough to be captured means the Ukrainians pulled something fast and slick, or the Russians really shit the bed. Plus capturing him and, presumably, capturing or neutralizing his command staff would likely leave major formations flailing for direction and not realizing, at least initially, that there’s no Niner. That could explain in part delayed responses to Ukraine’s fast attack.


Could also explain why they are succeeding so spectacularly, if they captured a theatre commanders CP quickly, if they got the maps, time tables, orders, crypto....they would know exactly how to hit the Russians.


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> I reckon the LAVs might work in the assault after all.....
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/x9405k


Yes  if you have decent ones and a fully functional variety and quantity to function as a complete unit


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xa0yfx


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> Yes  if you have decent ones and a fully functional variety and quantity to function as a complete unit



But if you're looking at that video what you are seeing is an independent group of 4 HMMWV class wheeled, 4x4 vehicles armed with hand cranked turrets and free-mounted guns, effectively a HMMWV squad/platoon assaulting a village with, as has been pointed out, no fire support (if you discount firing LAWs on the move).


That didn't require a prepared Combined Arms Battalion assault, or even a Stryker Company.


----------



## Kirkhill

Rumours -  Kupyansk and Izyum


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xa33j6


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/x9tcf7


----------



## Skysix

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568347976061313028


----------



## Kirkhill

More Rumours - Lyman


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568300636831195137


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568337686712225792


----------



## brihard

I don’t think I’d put any stock in Kupyansk being captured at this time, and I’m reticent to believe more than fighting in the outskirts of Izyum. This has been ludicrously fast as is, and I have to think that unless you’re chasing a rout, you don’t enter those cities haphazardly. But even if Izyum is substantially cut off from a logistical standpoint, that’s huge.

It’s been dark there for several hours. At this point I assume all info out of there for the rest of our day is garbage; by morning our time the quality OSINT aggregators should have some good sense from geolocation imagery of what actually has gone on, obviously with some delay.

I cannot imagine Russia isn’t frantically committing whatever reserves it has available to stop this up. Meanwhile, Ukraine has initially talked about three brigade launching this attack a few days ago. No way three brigades are sustaining this; they must have seen success and rushed more forces in. Which of course, why wouldn’t they?

The Oskil river seems like the obvious natural barrier behind which the Russians can catch their breath. I doubt many bridges remain serviceable, and that will serve to slow down Ukraine’s advance unless they pull off something really impressive to gain lodgement across it somewhere.

Man I wish we could see how Russia’s disposition is shifting right now. Something else will open up as weak somewhere, and Ukraine will probably see it. Can they keep up exploiting opportunities?


----------



## Skysix

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568337686712225792


Exchange for POW's and forcibly relocated Ukrainians  1:1. While waiting, send them to Snake Island with ICRC monitors. Airdrop captured Russian rations using ICRC or UN chartered aircraft (paid for by Ukraine) as needed. Take out any Russian ships that get close.

No need for tying up soldiers or essential civilians as guards for Russians that way. Let humanitarian cases (injured who will not be able to return to combat for 2 or more years) get stabilisation treatment prior to sending them to a Russian ally like Syria for care. The others in a NATO treatment facility for the optics and to reduce strain on Ukrainian medical system.

Wagner and Chechens should be the only ones in a secure POW camp. LPR and DPR sorted with involuntary returned as a gesture of goodwill and others held with Wagner as traitors.


----------



## Kirkhill

I donno.  But I'd say summat's up.

via DEFMON3 

This is the T0514 Highway Bridge across the Sivero Donetsk heading from south to north towards Liman.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568295709467631617
with fighting in the Liman area


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568301534764580865
Ukrainians appear to be dominating the ground from Kharkiv to the Oskil, from Kupyansk to Izyum.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568353422461603840
Russians cut off in Izyum is breaking news on Russian TV


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568352164195737601
Rumours of Izyum and Kupyansk being evacuated.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568302739146375168








						People are evacuated from Kharkov Region’s Izyum, Kupyansk, Veliky Burluk — official
					

Vitaly Ganchev had asked the Belgorod Region for help, should there be issues with accommodation for the people that are being evacuated




					tass.com
				












						Russian forces start evacuating Kupyansk under Ukrainian fire
					

Russian forces said they were taking women and children out of the town of Kupyansk, an important transport hub in the eastern Ukrainian region of Kharkiv.




					worldstagenews.com
				












						Russia announces evacuation from Izyum and Kupyansk amid rapid advance of Ukrainian Forces in Kharkiv region
					

Russia-installed authorities announced an "evacuation" in the occupied territories of the Kharkiv region due to the rapid counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces of Ukraine. "We are trying to concentrate all efforts to evacuate the local population for at least 3-4 days, until the...




					www.uawire.org
				












						Russian occupying forces evacuate further locations in Kharkiv area
					

The towns of Izyum and Kupyansk are to be evacuated first, the head of the Russian-appointed military administration, Vitaly Gantshev, told TASS state news agency.




					www.anews.com.tr


----------



## CBH99

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568337686712225792


They may not need to keep all of them, as there may very well be too many to quickly find placement for.

Those with Intel value?  Keep them.

The kids?  Send them home, they've  seen/done/forced to do enough. Especially the younger lads - unless that unit was involved in war crimes - no doubt there will be some filtering required.



Wagner employees?  Chechens?  Oooffff... no idea 🤷‍♂️  

Are PMC's afforded the same protections as military personnel upon surrender in a conflict?


----------



## MilEME09

Unconfirmed reports that Russian forces in Izyum are surrendering on mass, it's night time now, we will be a better idea of the actual situation at the 0800 update


----------



## brihard

CBH99 said:


> Are PMC's afforded the same protections as military personnel upon surrender in a conflict?



There’s not a clear consensus on this. A classic “it depends”. PMCs are poorly defined in international law. ‘Mercenary’ _is _ defined (and Ukraine is a state party to the UN’s Mercenary Convention), but the definition therein excludes people who are nationals of one of the state parties to a conflict.

In the case at hand, we have an unequivocal International Armed Conflict (a legally significant term) between two nation states’ conventional militaries. Wagner, though having mercenary characteristics, is effectively an auxiliary combatant force under the effective command and control of the Russian military. So long as they wear a uniform and carry arms openly, prudence would dictate treating any Wagner prisoners as PWs. However, _any _lawful combatant loses PW protections - essentially, not being subject to criminal prosecution for the lawful conduct of a war and the inherent violence that comes with that - if they themselves don’t observe the laws and customs of war.

My feel on it? Captured Wagner are most safely treated as PW, but any individuals for whom grounds exist to prosecute them for war crimes would lose that protection and may appropriately be treated and tried as war criminals.

A nation will not go wrong and will hold moral high ground by treating prisoners humanely. Also, the ability to show that even Wagnerites are being captured and treated humanely is a useful arrow in the info ops quiver.


----------



## brihard

Mick Ryan’s latest analysis is out. These are always cautious, insightful, and very informed.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568390526734598145


----------



## KevinB

Ouch...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568312857757978624


----------



## brihard

KevinB said:


> Ouch...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568312857757978624


You see the “Russian Meme Face” video the other day of the dude who was filming the crossing of the pontoon bridge from the back of the truck when they got smoked by something?


----------



## SeaKingTacco

KevinB said:


> Ouch...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568312857757978624


That will leave a mark…


----------



## YZT580

this is scary.  Things are going too well for Ukraine at the moment.  Would Putin risk a small tactical nuc.  into the middle of the advance?


----------



## dapaterson

I doubt he is getting timely int; I suspect his commanders are feeding optimistic reports not supported by reality to avoid their own tragic, accidental tripping out a seventh floor window.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

dapaterson said:


> I doubt he is getting timely int; I suspect his commanders are feeding optimistic reports not supported by reality to avoid their own tragic, accidental tripping out a seventh floor window.


Or he's confident Steinerov's Army Group is preparing a counter offensive


----------



## KevinB

YZT580 said:


> this is scary.  Things are going too well for Ukraine at the moment.  Would Putin risk a small tactical nuc.  into the middle of the advance?


. 

I suspect that anything like that would backfire badly.  To the point of maybe even going off inside Russian territory…


----------



## Lumber

rmc_wannabe said:


> Or he's confident Steinerov's Army Group is preparing a counter offensive


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> .
> 
> I suspect that anything like that would backfire badly.  To the point of maybe even going off inside Russian territory…


As far as I have read, Russian doctrine sees the nuclear option as the "well..   this is it. Make it count" response to an attack on the Motherland. The Russian Rocket Defence Forces operate on this principle and honestly, i'm pretty sure that is what has kept our world from the brink of annihilation for 70ish years. 

Lots of Strategic Corporals I hope would be willing to say "Screw it. I'm not authorizing the strike. I'm not turning the key to arm it." This is my hope at least.


----------



## MilEME09

YZT580 said:


> this is scary.  Things are going too well for Ukraine at the moment.  Would Putin risk a small tactical nuc.  into the middle of the advance?


Doubtful, as they would need to be released by the DM to local commanders, we would pick that up.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Doubtful, as they would need to be released by the DM to local commanders, we would pick that up.


Hence my comment about it maybe not even going off outside of Russia 👀


----------



## KevinB

rmc_wannabe said:


> As far as I have read, Russian doctrine sees the nuclear option as the "well..   this is it. Make it count" response to an attack on the Motherland. The Russian Rocket Defence Forces operate on this principle and honestly, i'm pretty sure that is what has kept our world from the brink of annihilation for 70ish years.
> 
> Lots of Strategic Corporals I hope would be willing to say "Screw it. I'm not authorizing the strike. I'm not turning the key to arm it." This is my hope at least.


Russian doctrine has a lot of allowances for Tac Nuke usage.  
   Including withdrawal and political motivations for terms etc.   

That said - there is one country that has used Nuclear weapons in war, and we keep that saber sheathed but very very sharp.


----------



## GR66

Russian use of a nuclear weapon would come at a huge political price.  The Russian homeland itself is not at risk.  Their forces are perhaps facing a reversal in an expeditionary war but in no way is Russia itself at risk of being invaded.  It would be very hard for any nation to support Russia should they do that...including China who's tacit economic support Russia cannot risk losing.

Nuclear weapon use might be deemed as a justification for NATO to directly intervene in the conflict.  Even if they do not I can see the US and the rest of the West implementing a full economic embargo on Russia...meaning that ANY nation (including China) that trades in any way with Russia will also face a full economic embargo and be blocked from all transactions under Swift.  Any country that purchased anything or sold anything to Russia would face crippling economic punishment.


----------



## Skysix

The west puts far to much reliance on embargoes with no appetite to police and enforce them in any meaningfull way.

Total embargo on Russia? Well then no need for ocean going transport if anything in any direction. Port and abandon or face 'letters of marque' or outright sinking. THAT might hurt a bit, but I seriously doubt there is any appetite for that level of enforcement.

The underlying flaw in the logic is that we ascribe OUR notions if the effects on the population and politicians based on 21st century Western democratic values. On a decidedly 20th century dictatorship.




GR66 said:


> Russian use of a nuclear weapon would come at a huge political price.  The Russian homeland itself is not at risk.  Their forces are perhaps facing a reversal in an expeditionary war but in no way is Russia itself at risk of being invaded.  It would be very hard for any nation to support Russia should they do that...including China who's tacit economic support Russia cannot risk losing.
> 
> Nuclear weapon use might be deemed as a justification for NATO to directly intervene in the conflict.  Even if they do not I can see the US and the rest of the West implementing a full economic embargo on Russia...meaning that ANY nation (including China) that trades in any way with Russia will also face a full economic embargo and be blocked from all transactions under Swift.  Any country that purchased anything or sold anything to Russia would face crippling economic punishment.


----------



## brihard

Skysix said:


> The west puts far to much reliance on embargoes with no appetite to police and enforce them in any meaningfull way.
> 
> Total embargo on Russia? Well then no need for ocean going transport if anything in any direction. Port and abandon or face 'letters of marque' or outright sinking. THAT might hurt a bit, but I seriously doubt there is any appetite for that level of enforcement.
> 
> The undeying flaw in the logic is we ascribe OUR notions if the effects on the population and politicians basef on 21st century Western democratic values. On a decidedly 20th century dictatorship.


At that point the West is declaring outright war on Russia; something we’ve not elected to do thus far. What you’re describing is more properly a ‘blockade’.

What has happened thus far are sanctions; they’re valid, if aggressive, legal and economic policy, but they apply only to what’s within reach of your own law, hence them really only being effective when imposed as a multinational bloc. But a decision to forcibly prevent commerce with other parties who choose not to impose sanctions would be a very different matter. Blockade is an act of war. And what do you do when the Chinese flagged oil tanker sails to a Russian port to fill up?


----------



## TacticalTea

@brihard Don't be so modest, now...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568488676446855168


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568467240869150727


----------



## GR66

Skysix said:


> The west puts far to much reliance on embargoes with no appetite to police and enforce them in any meaningfull way.
> 
> Total embargo on Russia? Well then no need for ocean going transport if anything in any direction. Port and abandon or face 'letters of marque' or outright sinking. THAT might hurt a bit, but I seriously doubt there is any appetite for that level of enforcement.
> 
> The underlying flaw in the logic is that we ascribe OUR notions if the effects on the population and politicians based on 21st century Western democratic values. On a decidedly 20th century dictatorship.


What I'm suggesting is the US implementing Secondary Sanctions against Russia (see link).  This has not been done with regard to Russia as of yet.  Only Iran to date has been targeted by Secondary Sanctions.  

The existing Russian sanctions just prevent companies/citizens of the sanctioning nation from doing business directly with Russia.  Secondary sanctions would prevent any foreign companies/citizens/governments that do business directly with Russia from accessing the US economy.

So let's say the sale of Russian oil were to be processed by a Chinese bank.  That bank then would be prevented from any business with any US company or having access to US dollar transactions, etc.  Any companies (Chinese or otherwise) using that bank would not lose the ability to use that bank to conduct any of their US dollar denominated business transactions.  

The US hasn't imposed Secondary sanctions on Russia yet simply because in effect it would be like placing sanctions on all those countries still doing business with Russia.  Countries like China or India would protest such a step right now but if Russia were to be the first country to use nuclear weapons against another country, and not in self-defence but rather in a war of aggression, then the US (and allies) would be able to frame it as any country continuing to trade with Russia being a supporter of the offensive first use of nuclear weapons.  

Would China be willing to implode their economy in order to support a Russia led by someone who is willing to throw around nuclear weapons?  If China implicitly supported Putin's action by continuing to trade would Japan and South Korea then see no choice but to become nuclear weapon states themselves?  Would Germany and Poland initiate their own programs?  Russia and China would see themselves increasingly constrained in their ability to use intimidation in their foreign policy as more of their neighbours arm themselves against proven nuclear aggressors.

That's my personal opinion anyway.  I'm still hopeful that there are enough sane minds out there that see that nobody would win in a nuclear confrontation.  A loss by Russia in Ukraine is not an existential threat to Russia itself.  It may be to Putin personally, but I don't know how many people in the upper levels of the Russian Government and Military would be willing to sacrifice themselves and their entire country for Putin's political future.


----------



## brihard

What a night. Conservatively, it looks like a total rout west of the Oskil river, including west Kupyansk and Izyum. Lyman may have been abandoned by Russia- if true, that could help Ukraine secure its key bridgehead across the Siverskyi Donets river.

Russia has to establish a new defensive line, and It’s quite some distance east before they have good ground to do so. Ukraine has likely captured a lot of useable kit and munitions, and likely a lot of prisoners.

I don’t know how Ukraine’s logistics will keep up without a consolidation phase… but that’s a good problem to have.

I think it’s all eyes on Lyman now, and wait to see if we get video today of Ukrainian troops in the city.

Good morning update from DefMon. He’s cautious in his reports.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568548547649277953


----------



## Kirkhill

Interesting speculation on the nature of the Ukrainian force the Russians are facing from "david D" via DEFMON3


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568438928516022279


----------



## Fishbone Jones

.


----------



## daftandbarmy

He either fears his fate too much
Or his desserts are small
Who dares not put it to the touch
To win, or lose it all


Russia-Ukraine WarUkrainian Forces Take Key City in Northeastern Offensive​
KYIV, Ukraine — Ukrainian forces entered the key Russian military stronghold of Izium on Saturday, continuing their rapid advance across the northeastand igniting a dramatic new phase in the more than six-month war.

“Izium was liberated today,” the city’s mayor, Valeriy Marchenko, said in an interview. While he was not yet in the city himself, he said that he was in contact with the police and that emergency services were working to clear it of possible hazards before residents could return.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense — which a day earlier had said that it was moving to reinforce its defensive positions in the region — confirmed on 
Saturday that it had pulled its forces out of Izium, six months after its forces laid siege to and then seized the city.

Maintaining control of towns and cities has at times proven tenuous over the course of the war, and it was not immediately clear how secure 
Ukraine’s control over Izium was and what efforts Russia might take to try to win it back.

But the liberation of Izium — a strategically important railway hub that Russian forces seized in March after a bloody weekslong battle — marks a turning point in the war, dwarfed only by Russia’s humiliating defeat around the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, in the spring.

The first signs that Russian forces would retreat rather than fight emerged late on Friday.

“Yesterday evening, Russians put a white flag nearby the railway station,” Yevhen, a Ukrainian officer who participated in the liberation of Izium, said in a telephone interview. “There was street fighting all over the night.” He asked to be identified by only his first name out of concerns for his security.

Much about the Ukrainian offensive in the Kharkiv region, where Izium is, was shrouded in uncertainty amid a lack of official confirmation, and military analysts cautioned that it was a fast-moving situation that could change by the hour.

But the lightning offensive in the country’s northeast has reshaped what had become a grinding war of attrition. In a matter of days, Russian front lines have buckled, Moscow’s troops have fled and one village after another has come once more beneath Ukraine’s yellow and blue banner — like the town of Kupiansk just north of Izium, which sits on key supply routes to the eastern front line.

Ukraine’s Security Service later posted a photo on Telegram showing members of the special forces in Kupiansk.

“We move further!” the post read, according to the Ukrinform news agency.

As Ukrainian officials celebrated the turn of events, however cautiously, some prominent pro-Kremlin military bloggers expressed anger and frustration at the rapid developments.

A Russian military blogger, who goes by the name Rusich, has 278,000 followers on Telegram and claimed to be in the city on Friday, wrote that the surrender of Izium was a “small setback” and urged his followers not to “despair.”

With the Russians out of towns and cities they had battered in order to seize, the cost of their monthslong occupation was just starting to come into focus. Ukrainian officials said they had dispatched investigators to newly liberated towns to begin compiling evidence of Russian war crimes.
In his overnight address, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said the military had recaptured more than 30 settlements in the Kharkiv region.
“Actions to check and secure the territory continue,” he said. “We are gradually taking control of new settlements.”

The eastern offensive, which began earlier this week, has cleared Russian forces from more than 2,500 square kilometers of land in the Kharkiv region as of Friday, according to an estimate by the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.

“There is still a lot that we don’t know about the offensive, but it is clear this was well planned and executed by Ukrainian forces,” said Rob Lee, a military analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. “It looks like a very effective combined arms operation with tanks, mechanized infantry, Special Operations forces, air defenses, artillery and other systems.”

Ukrainian and Western officials cautioned that the offensive operations were in their early days, that the situation was fluid and that any gains were far from secure. Some military analysts warned that the Ukrainians’ rapid advance could leave them stretched thin and vulnerable to counterattack.
In addition to the counteroffensive in the northeast, Ukraine has been making a push in the south to recapture territory in the Kherson region.

Ukraine’s military made significant advances in recent days near the northeastern city of Izium, a key Russian stronghold, according to military analysts and geolocated photos and videos. The breakthrough — possibly some 50 kilometers in just a few days — threatened to encircle Russian forces, which appeared to be caught by surprise.

The progress of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the east, paired with slower, more limited gains in the south, represents some of the most significant changes to the front lines of the war in months.

The exact positions of Ukrainian forces around Izium could not be independently confirmed. The Russian military released a video with what it said were reinforcements headed to the Kharkiv area, but it has not made detailed statements about the status of the fighting.

But military analysts, satellite detections and photos and videos of Ukrainian forces indicate that they moved rapidly east toward Kupiansk in recent days, possibly getting close to the outskirts of the city.









						Ukrainian Forces Take Key City in Northeastern Offensive
					

The liberation of Izium, a strategically important railway hub that Russian forces seized in March, marks a turning point in the war. Russia’s Defense Ministry confirmed its forces had withdrawn.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Kirkhill said:


> Interesting speculation on the nature of the Ukrainian force the Russians are facing from "david D" via DEFMON3
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568438928516022279


It's pretty spot on for NATO doctrine. Almost as if spending 8 years being trained by NATO forces would have that affect. 

The UA is using maneuver warfare fantastically.


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> The eastern offensive, which began earlier this week, has cleared Russian forces from more than 2,500 square kilometers of land in the Kharkiv region as of Friday, according to an estimate by the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.



So they have managed to clear Suffield?



> CFB Suffield is host to the largest military training area in Canada, conducting the largest live-fire training exercises in the country. The Manoeuvre Training Area covers 1,588 square kilometres of a 2,700 square kilometre base.








						Canadian Forces Base, Suffield - Canada.ca
					

Canadian Forces Base Suffield is located in Alberta and is host to the largest military training area in Canada.




					www.canada.ca


----------



## daftandbarmy

'At least he stuck the landing'...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568595664711593984


----------



## Kirkhill

rmc_wannabe said:


> It's pretty spot on for NATO doctrine. Almost as if spending 8 years being trained by NATO forces would have that affect.
> 
> The UA is using maneuver warfare fantastically.



They seem quite able to effectively conduct a static defence with offensive action AND conduct lightning raids and attacks.  Over long distances.


----------



## brihard

daftandbarmy said:


> 'At least he stuck the landing'...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568595664711593984


VAC deems the back injury 2/5 related to service.


More rumblings in the last hour or two of Ukrainian forces near or entering Lysychansk, opposite the river (and stop the escarpment) from Siverodonetsk. Not implausible; that’s not too far from the existing lines. If true, it would represent a spread of the offensive beyond the west bank of the Oskil and the immediate Lyman area, and would also represent concrete offensive action (as opposed to an opportunistic seizing of an abandoned Lyman) other than in Kharkiv Oblast. I can’t imagine the Russians not fighting for Lysychansk if they’re capable of it; it’s key terrain within Luhansk Oblast..:


----------



## MilEME09

Izyum has been liberated 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568631251686379520


----------



## GK .Dundas

daftandbarmy said:


> 'At least he stuck the landing'...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568595664711593984


OUCH !


----------



## MilEME09

None of us predicted how fast this would go, Russian army has collapsed 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568636168010334210


----------



## SeaKingTacco

I would say that it is an overstatement to say that the Russian Army has collapsed.


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> None of us predicted how fast this would go, Russian army has collapsed
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568636168010334210



Having cleared the CFB Suffield area behind Medicine Hat by assaulting through Ralston the Ukrainians are launching a new assault from Maple Creek in the direction of Golden Prairie....


----------



## MilEME09

SeaKingTacco said:


> I would say that it is an overstatement to say that the Russian Army has collapsed.


Is it though? Geolocated footage has Ukraine entering Serverodonetsk, Donetsk airport has been taken with Ukrainian troops entering the city.


----------



## Blackadder1916

Kirkhill said:


> So they have managed to clear Suffield?



But have they avoided damaging the tree(_s?_)


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Is it though? Geolocated footage has Ukraine entering Serverodonetsk, Donetsk airport has been taken with Ukrainian troops entering the city.


Elements of the Russian Army have definitely collapsed, and it’s going to really hurt Russia. 

But I’m not sure I’d go as far as making a blanket statement on the extent of the collapse.


----------



## KevinB

Lol 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568547974023712771


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> Lol
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568547974023712771


I'd be interested to see the actual aggregate monetary value of captured equipment.

Heard on Mriya Report: several modern T-90s captured by Ukraine.


----------



## suffolkowner

TacticalTea said:


> I'd be interested to see the actual aggregate monetary value of captured equipment.
> 
> Heard on Mriya Report: several modern T-90s captured by Ukraine.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568646792039862274
if this is anything close to true it is amazing


----------



## TacticalTea

suffolkowner said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568646792039862274
> if this is anything close to true it is amazing


It appears believable given the scale and rapidity of the advance, and the shoddiness of the rout.


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568646792039862274
> if this is anything close to true it is amazing


Equal to capturing the entire CA in terms of equipment


----------



## Kirkhill

suffolkowner said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568646792039862274
> if this is anything close to true it is amazing



Gonna need a lot of tractors to drag those back to Poland and Slovakia.


----------



## Kirkhill

suffolkowner said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568646792039862274
> if this is anything close to true it is amazing




A video from the comments 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568650372864004096


----------



## suffolkowner

evolving Russian equipment situation



start of invasionlosses confirmed by oryxukrainian claimedkharkiv offensive claimedMBT280010462136457IFV51601160APC610083745841380towed artillery15086self propelled artillery161017415954rocket artillery135296311SAM systems25317216220

for the above ifv/apc are not distinguished in ukrainian claims same with artillery. No matter what I cant see Russia being able to replace these losses in the context of this war or the near term


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568690409853054977


----------



## KJK

Kirkhill said:


> Gonna need a lot of tractors to drag those back to Poland and Slovakia.


Perhaps Biden can convince Case IH and John Deere to put together and aid package, 🚜


----------



## Kirkhill

Another sign of change - Pro-Russians heading for the border.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568574387670102016
And DefMon3 relaying that the NEW 3rd Army Corps has had its baptism of fire in the Kharkiv Oblast.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568578489908961280
There go the reserves.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Wow... the Russians fell apart faster than a pair of Royer combat boots...


----------



## Colin Parkinson

suffolkowner said:


> evolving Russian equipment situation
> 
> 
> 
> start of invasionlosses confirmed by oryxukrainian claimedkharkiv offensive claimedMBT280010462136457IFV51601160APC610083745841380towed artillery15086self propelled artillery161017415954rocket artillery135296311SAM systems25317216220
> 
> for the above ifv/apc are not distinguished in ukrainian claims same with artillery. No matter what I cant see Russia being able to replace these losses in the context of this war or the near term
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568690409853054977


The video looks like a captured repair depot.


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> A video from the comments
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568650372864004096


Apparently I have been had.


----------



## TacticalTea

rmc_wannabe said:


> Wow... the Russians fell apart faster than a pair of Royer combat boots...


Faster than you can think about it:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568738501503614978
I actually exclaimed ''oh my god'' when I saw this one. It just doesn't stop.


----------



## Kirkhill

See if this one is any better...

Igor Girkin (Strelkov) Trolling Putin.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568682705969111040


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568662843037470720


----------



## kev994

rmc_wannabe said:


> Wow... the Russians fell apart faster than a pair of Royer combat boots...


Yeah, but will they call it quits or continue to throw cannon fodder for the next several years?


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

One has to see more and more of this....how long before those around him start thinking of how to both keep their assets and stay alive??










						Moscow Officials Urge Putin to GTFO: ‘Everything Went Wrong’
					

GettyMore and more Russian officials are urging Vladimir Putin to get the hell out of the Kremlin as Moscow suffered another series of humiliating defeats in Ukraine this weekend.Just one day after several municipal deputies in Putin’s hometown of St. Petersburg called on the State Duma to try...




					ca.yahoo.com


----------



## rmc_wannabe

kev994 said:


> Yeah, but will they call it quits or continue to throw cannon fodder for the next several years?





Bruce Monkhouse said:


> One has to see more and more of this....how long before those around him start thinking of how to both keep their assets and stay alive??
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Moscow Officials Urge Putin to GTFO: ‘Everything Went Wrong’
> 
> 
> GettyMore and more Russian officials are urging Vladimir Putin to get the hell out of the Kremlin as Moscow suffered another series of humiliating defeats in Ukraine this weekend.Just one day after several municipal deputies in Putin’s hometown of St. Petersburg called on the State Duma to try...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ca.yahoo.com


My hypothesis is that Putin knows the second there is a withdrawal announced, he's cooked. Keeping the war going for the faint chance of Western fatigue or of the "Winter Counter offensive" is more a matter of Putin trying to hold on to power; not any way a tactical or strategic decision.

Hopium is a hell of a drug....


----------



## Kat Stevens

rmc_wannabe said:


> My hypothesis is that Putin knows the second there is a withdrawal announced, he's cooked. Keeping the war going for the faint chance of Western fatigue or of the "Winter Counter offensive" is more a matter of Putin trying to hold on to power; not any way a tactical or strategic decision.
> 
> Hopium is a hell of a drug....


Gangsters (AKA Russian politicians) only support their boss as long as their bellies are full. Success ensures loyalty. There are a lot of hungry Russian politicians right now, I think his days are numbered. If I were Vlad I'd be very cautious of men carrying umbrellas on a sunny day.


----------



## Navy_Pete

On the plus side, it looks like they got enough external power back to Zaporizhzhia nuclear reactor to be able to shut it down safely, so the real risk of the meltdown has been averted.


----------



## OldSolduer

Kat Stevens said:


> Gangsters (AKA Russian politicians) only support their boss as long as their bellies are full. Success ensures loyalty. There are a lot of hungry Russian politicians right now, I think his days are numbered. If I were Vlad I'd be very cautious of men carrying umbrellas on a sunny day.


I am mildly surprised this has not happened already.


----------



## MilEME09

A lot of abandoned kit around Izyum, I've heard as much as 3 brigades worth of equipment has been captures by the Ukrainian army in the past week.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1568876740088315906


----------



## Remius

Russian nationalists rage after stunning setback in Ukraine
					

Russian nationalists called angrily on Sunday for President Vladimir Putin to make immediate changes to ensure ultimate victory in the Ukraine war, a day after Moscow was forced to abandon its main bastion in northeastern Ukraine.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## dapaterson

If we abandon all our broken vehicles to the enemy, we decrease our VOR rate!


----------



## SeaKingTacco

dapaterson said:


> If we abandon all our broken vehicles to the enemy, we decrease our VOR rate!


That is so crazy, it just might work!


----------



## MilEME09

Steinerov's counter attack will save us.....


----------



## daftandbarmy

It's a good start, but they've got a long way to go still...


Kharkiv offensive: Ukrainian army says it has tripled retaken area​
Unverified footage on social media appeared to show long queues of traffic building up at border crossings. The governor of the Belgorod border region in Russia, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said "thousands" of people had crossed into the country.

Meanwhile, Gen Valerii Zaluzhnyi, commander of Ukraine's military, said his forces had advanced to within 50km (31 miles) of the Russian border.
But Russians still hold around a fifth of the country, and few imagine a swift end to the war.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Ukraine's defence minister Oleksii Reznikov hailed his troops, but warned of the potential for a Russian counter-attack.

"A counter-offensive liberates territory and after that you have to control it and be ready to defend it," Mr Reznikov said. "Of course, we have to be worried, this war has worried us for years."









						Kharkiv offensive: Ukrainian army says it has tripled retaken area
					

On Saturday, Ukraine captured key eastern towns, as Russian forces withdrew to "regroup".



					www.bbc.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Some of the political mindset, notice the threat to those that see how bad things are and dare mention it.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569070513909022720


----------



## TacticalTea

Colin Parkinson said:


> Some of the political mindset, notice the threat to those that see how bad things are and dare mention it.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569070513909022720


Clowns. At least some of them are awake.

''How long should we stay in there?''
''However long it takes!''
''So that my 10-year old kid gets the chance to fight too?!''


----------



## Skysix

Yep. The third most powerfull army (and the most experienced in modern high intensity war) in the world currently is the UAF.

Quantity has its own Quality. But not much of one apparently.


----------



## childs56

Does anyone else think Putin might try a crazy move and use NBCW as a last resort? Let Ukraine retake a pile of territory and then go for broke.


----------



## MilEME09

childs56 said:


> Does anyone else think Putin might try a crazy move and use NBCW as a last resort? Let Ukraine retake a pile of territory and then go for broke.


1. There is a lot more they can di escalation wise nefore that.
2. We will see chemical before nuclear
3. Nuclear will not happen as they have many of the same fail safes as the west to prevent the madman launch


----------



## KevinB

childs56 said:


> Does anyone else think Putin might try a crazy move and use NBCW as a last resort? Let Ukraine retake a pile of territory and then go for broke.





MilEME09 said:


> 1. There is a lot more they can di escalation wise nefore that.
> 2. We will see chemical before nuclear
> 3. Nuclear will not happen as they have many of the same fail safes as the west to prevent the madman launch


Tac Nuke usage is part of Russias doctrine. 
   However Putin and Co. have been be told repeatedly in private that going there will result in them not surviving.  

From the US perspective: Chem, Bio, Nuke is all irrelevant. We have one response for all of that.   You go away - maybe in a large radioactive cloud…    Before anyone points to Iraq or Syria, like it or not, the West views White Europeans differently, plus we sort of have a vested interest in UKR.


----------



## Skysix

The next spin I think will come from the hardliners and Russian disinformation factories will be that the advisors in the beginning were so criminally wrong that they must have been underhandedly and deliberately fed NATO disinformation to cause Putin to initiate his SMO and thus essentially NATO was initiating an undeclared economic war to militarily weaken Russia and rule all of the EU and Rus for their own benefit using Ukraine as their patsy.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Skysix said:


> The next spin I think will come from the hardliners and Russian disinformation factories will be that the advisors in the beginning were so criminally wrong that they must have been deliberately fed NATO disinformation to cause Putin to initiate his SMO and thus essentially were waging an undeclared economic war to militarily weaken Russia


The knives will be out and Putin will likley arrest a bunch of court followers to be tried for "Misleading Mother Russia" hoping to dodge the bullet. That might work for this offensive, but will fail if he tries that again.


----------



## KevinB

Colin Parkinson said:


> The knives will be out and Putin will likley arrest a bunch of court followers to be tried for "Misleading Mother Russia" hoping to dodge the bullet. That might work for this offensive, but will fail if he tries that again.


That becomes a self fulfilling prophecy of doom.  Because eventually, someone realizes he/they are probably next on the sacrificial altar, and decide to make their own fate by attempting a von Stauffenberg…
   And will probably not set it behind a table leg.


----------



## TacticalTea

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569133857060028416
Kharkiv front closed, albeit with a parting gift in the form of a strike on a power station. The Gold and Blue flies once more over the border.


----------



## dapaterson

After abandoning much of your SOF (VDV) without support and relegating others to garrisons without support, do not be surprised when those who remain help you find a 17th story window.


----------



## Eaglelord17

KevinB said:


> That becomes a self fulfilling prophecy of doom.  Because eventually, someone realizes he/they are probably next on the sacrificial altar, and decide to make their own fate by attempting a von Stauffenberg…
> And will probably not set it behind a table leg.


Depends, Stalin was able to avoid it and kill all his competition/anyone who could refute his version of events. Russia is a weird country, and a lot of weirder things have happened in its past.


----------



## Maxman1

KevinB said:


> That becomes a self fulfilling prophecy of doom.  Because eventually, someone realizes he/they are probably next on the sacrificial altar, and decide to make their own fate by attempting a von Stauffenberg…
> And will probably not set it behind a table leg.



Or use more than one charge this time.


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569188296680415232


----------



## ueo

Skysix said:


> The next spin I think will come from the hardliners and Russian disinformation factories will be that the advisors in the beginning were so criminally wrong that they must have been underhandedly and deliberately fed NATO disinformation to cause Putin to initiate his SMO and thus essentially NATO was initiating an undeclared economic war to militarily weaken Russia and rule all of the EU and Rus for their own benefit using Ukraine as their patsy.


Gawd lawyer speak!


----------



## Kirkhill

A considered opinion - makes sense to me.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569398071074635777


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Stormers and Saxons on the move is it the UK army or the UK Army?









						Военный Осведомитель
					

К полному интернационалу западной техники в группировке ВСУ на Харьковском направлении добавились поставленные из Великобритании бронетранспортёры FV103 Spartan. Об этом говорят характерные белые кресты на броне.  @milinfolive




					t.me


----------



## Quirky

Skysix said:


> Yep. The third most powerfull army (and the most experienced in modern high intensity war) in the world currently is the UAF.


At this rate the UAF will be sending trainers to Canada.


----------



## CBH99

dapaterson said:


> After abandoning much of your SOF (VDV) without support and relegating others to garrisons without support, do not be surprised when those who remain help you find a 17th story window.


Only a fool underestimates their enemy - so on that ground, I don't doubt their Spetznaz are very well trained & capable.   I haven't seen anything to make me think otherwise.

That being said, just how capable was the VDV actually?  

Losing a cargo plane full of paratroopers is definitely a huge wrench in whatever plan that was, but so was dropping another plane load of paratroopers into the frigging sea because the plane was a few hundred feet further from the coast than they realized...

Obviously their GPS systems weren't super accurate, nor were their NOD's all that great if they can't distinguish between coastline & trees, and open water...just saying...

With the exception of the poor guys on the plane that was shot down, the rest of the regiment basically wiped itself out...  😐🤔


----------



## Kat Stevens

CBH99 said:


> Only a fool underestimates their enemy - so on that ground, I don't doubt their Spetznaz are very well trained & capable.   I haven't seen anything to make me think otherwise.
> 
> That being said, just how capable was the VDV actually?
> 
> Losing a cargo plane full of paratroopers is definitely a huge wrench in whatever plan that was, but so was dropping another plane load of paratroopers into the frigging sea because the plane was a few hundred feet further from the coast than they realized...
> 
> Obviously their GPS systems weren't super accurate, nor were their NOD's all that great if they can't distinguish between coastline & trees, and open water...just saying...
> 
> With the exception of the poor guys on the plane that was shot down, the rest of the regiment basically wiped itself out...  😐🤔


I'm definitely thinking of disabling GLONASS on my Garmin.


----------



## CBH99

Quirky said:


> At this rate the UAF will be sending trainers to Canada.


Honestly, its not a far fetched idea.

 We had pretty strong cadre of people in the CAF with solid, recent combat experience in Afghanistan - as well as SOF folks fighting ISIS, ontop of their other stuff.

But our experience was in counter insurgency.  We had relevant lessons to teach, but nobody in the world had experience fighting a high intensity conflict against a technologically competent large force.

When we look at their incredible success in absorbing, thwarting, draining, and eventually countering a much larger & more advanced enemy than themselves - I imagine Ukraine will be teaching plenty of NATO countries their lessons learned.


----------



## Kirkhill

Explosions in the Taganrog-Rostov area



			https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123


----------



## daftandbarmy

Quirky said:


> At this rate the UAF will be sending trainers to Canada.



Where they will probably be trashed as idiots because 'we already know it all'


----------



## Kirkhill

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin


----------



## GR66

Here's an Oryx Blog summary of weapons and equipment supplied by Canada to Ukraine to date.


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569486153585229824









						Fresh clashes erupt between Azerbaijan, Armenia
					

Clashes erupted between Azerbaijani and Armenian troops, Russian news agencies reported early on Tuesday, in a resumption of decades-old hostilities linked to the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.




					www.reuters.com
				




Looks like some smell blood in the water…


----------



## RangerRay

Remius said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569486153585229824
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Fresh clashes erupt between Azerbaijan, Armenia
> 
> 
> Clashes erupted between Azerbaijani and Armenian troops, Russian news agencies reported early on Tuesday, in a resumption of decades-old hostilities linked to the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Looks like some smell blood in the water…


FFS…


----------



## MilEME09

Welcome to the geopolitical fall out of  weak Russia. Buckle up kids, it's going to get rough


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> Welcome to the geopolitical fall out of  weak Russia. Buckle up kids, it's going to get rough



"Dictators ride to and fro on tigers from which they dare not dismount. And the tigers are getting hungry." Winston Churchill


----------



## MilEME09

daftandbarmy said:


> "Dictators ride to and fro on tigers from which they dare not dismount. And the tigers are getting hungry." Winston Churchill


Putin has reportedly locked him self in his Sochi mansion and refuses to speak to his military staff.


----------



## CBH99

TASS existed on the assumption of all members that Russia was a regional superpower of sorts - Russia could assist with financing, trade, be the big stick for a smaller country if need be, and could rain down hellfire upon those who would threaten the benefits that TASS would bring.

But…what happens when the fierce powerhouse that is the muscle behind your organization gets the shit beat out of it live on TV/internet, after they themselves started the fight?

What happens when you know big brother isn’t going to come help a certain country, because they literally can’t?  (They have no vehicles or kit, ammo is depleted, and most of their professional troops have been killed or maimed.)




MilEME09 said:


> Welcome to the geopolitical fall out of  weak Russia. Buckle up kids, it's going to get rough


Hopefully just around Russia’s area of influence, which is mostly just around it’s own borders 🤞🏻


----------



## Skysix

CBH99 said:


> TASS existed on the assumption of all members that Russia was a regional superpower of sorts - Russia could assist with financing, trade, be the big stick for a smaller country if need be, and could rain down hellfire upon those who would threaten the benefits that TASS would bring.
> 
> But…what happens when the fierce powerhouse that is the muscle behind your organization gets the shit beat out of it live on TV/internet, after they themselves started the fight?
> 
> What happens when you know big brother isn’t going to come help a certain country, because they literally can’t?  (They have no vehicles or kit, ammo is depleted, and most of their professional troops have been killed or maimed.)
> 
> 
> 
> Hopefully just around Russia’s area of influence, which is mostly just around it’s own borders 🤞🏻


Can't find the post but back in Feb someone here predicted this in not so many words.


----------



## CBH99

MilEME09 said:


> Putin has reportedly locked him self in his Sochi mansion and refuses to speak to his military staff.


You know the end is near _when_…


It’s sad in a way.  An incredibly clever KGB guy networked with the right people & organizations essentially cobbled together a functioning government, get the economy stabilized & somewhat on track, modernized Russia in _some_ ways and led it to where it _was_ prior to all this.

Only to lose so much of that, and for what?  

Because _he_ wanted to own/control the resources of Ukraine?  Hated Ukrainians so much he committed to their genocide?  A genuine belief that Ukrainians would welcome them with open arms, and he’d be one step closer to USSR 2.0?

_Note, it’s uncommon for a local population to greet you with open arms & true generosity when you bomb their schools & malls, condone things such as the Bucha Massacre, and turn a blind eye to blatant war crimes._  Not sure what you expected there Putin…


All of this bloodshed & true horror for those trapped inside the war, and for what?

An extremely impressive legacy, ruined in the end because…why?  Even if Putin succeeded, what would have really been accomplished?


----------



## McG

1 GTA is KO? That’s a big deal.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569550041194405890


----------



## suffolkowner

McG said:


> 1 GTA is KO? That’s a big deal.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569550041194405890


I'm curious what elements of the Russian army would remain relatively untouched and complete at this time?  are there a bunch of units with t90s etc being held in reserve to hold off NATO and Chinese hords?


----------



## IKnowNothing

suffolkowner said:


> I'm curious what elements of the Russian army would remain relatively untouched and complete at this time?  are there a bunch of units with t90s etc being held in reserve to hold off NATO and Chinese hords?


Just a quick wiki skim of Eastern Military district

Both 5th Independent Guards Tank and 37th Independent Guards Motor Rifle Reported at Kyiv Offensive, latter with 50% casualties
38th and 64th  Motor Rifle reported at Izyum, decimated and unwilling to continue

36th MRB reported as part of the invasion, no detail
39th not reported as connected
127th Motor Rifle Division reported committed


----------



## Kirkhill

suffolkowner said:


> I'm curious what elements of the Russian army would remain relatively untouched and complete at this time?  are there a bunch of units with t90s etc being held in reserve to hold off NATO and Chinese hords?



Every Military District, every Division (Army, VDV and Marines) has been identified in Ukraine since February.


----------



## FormerHorseGuard

GR66 said:


> Here's an Oryx Blog summary of weapons and equipment supplied by Canada to Ukraine to date.


It is amazing how much equipment  we lent, or donated.  But I wonder what will it cost us as a Nation to replace


----------



## Lumber

FormerHorseGuard said:


> It is amazing how much equipment  we lent, or donated.  But I wonder what will it cost us as a Nation to replace


I think it's a good thing we've donated all of this stuff and gotten it off our shelves. We should donate more. Following this conflict, the west is going to need to spend years studying and dissecting the lessons learned from the very first large scale conflict between two militaries armed with full modern weapons. Once we learn what works and what doesn't, we can replace our empty shelves with the best of what we actually need.


----------



## FormerHorseGuard

As an uninformed person, how would you figure out real facts from propaganda stories for both sides of the conflict.  Such as number of tanks captured, destroyed,  damage reports etc?  When the CF was operating over seas in a conflict, they did not report tanks damaged or to the extent the losses of apcs, and trucks  so the enemy would not get an official tally of battle field damages. What figures are trust worthy and what figures are totally made up and no where close?  KIA, WIA, numbers, what is real? None of the numbers seem real to me. Just curious


----------



## Lumber

FormerHorseGuard said:


> As an uninformed person, how would you figure out real facts from propaganda stories for both sides of the conflict.  Such as number of tanks captured, destroyed,  damage reports etc?  When the CF was operating over seas in a conflict, they did not report tanks damaged or to the extent the losses of apcs, and trucks  so the enemy would not get an official tally of battle field damages. What figures are trust worthy and what figures are totally made up and no where close?  KIA, WIA, numbers, what is real? None of the numbers seem real to me. Just curious


Various government committees will have access to the best intelligence that both our military and civilian intelligence agencies can provide. Much of that intelligence will come from, or be developed in consort with, some of our various allies, specifically the five eyes community. Will it always be 100% accurate? Never. But, they're going to have access to intelligence information that will never see the light of "public" day, and this information will help inform their decision making. Western governments can then publish their "official" estimates without having to actually share the initial intelligence information, nor where their intelligence came from. Could they be lying, or sharing inaccurate information? Maybe, but if they want to then use that information to justify buying x, y, and z, then they better hope their information is accurate.


----------



## CBH99

Lumber said:


> I think it's a good thing we've donated all of this stuff and gotten it off our shelves. We should donate more. Following this conflict, the west is going to need to spend years studying and dissecting the lessons learned from the very first large scale conflict between two militaries armed with full modern weapons. Once we learn what works and what doesn't, we can replace our empty shelves with the best of what we actually need.


This ^

In terms of what it will cost us as a nation to replace 100 Carl G’s?  Not much.  What it will cost us to replace M72’s?  Again, not much.

In the grand scheme of things, neither of these weapon systems are very expensive - which is probably why we had some to donate in the first place.  

I imagine both of these weapon systems will be replaced regardless of any lessons learned, which means we can finally start getting the latest variant of Carl G in circulation.  (Guided rounds w/ a variety of different warheads/effects.)

______

The 8 Senator vehicles didn’t come from our inventory, albeit they are built by a Canadian company.  

And the 39 LAV APC’s can be replaced easily enough.  They don’t require a competition, and it gives the CAF an opportunity to replace with a different variant if it wants to.  

______


I do wish we could have donated more than 4 M777’s, and those talks had gone somewhat differently - because then we could call out the government on how bare the shelves really are in some places.  

Even if we’d been asked to donate 8, and could only donate 4.  The tangible result for us would’ve been the same, but the MSM would have been able to dive right in & embarrass the government for not having more than a whopping 4 to donate.  

(I realized the MSM is like a bull getting ready to charge a red scarf.  We just have to waive the scarf in the direction we want them to go, and they’ll charge right in & do their thing.  If the government had directed us to donate 8, but we could only spare 4…the MSM would be in there like bored folks waiting for a slow news day, asking things like “Why don’t we have more!?” or “According to government’s own plan, we don’t have enough artillery!”

The one thing that seems to get any sort of momentum out of this government is embarrassment.  That’s the weapon that works.)

______

In the end there will be plenty of lessons to be learned for both offensive & defensive operations against a large peer enemy.  

Air defense (A large number of highly dispersed, modern MANPADS made flying over Ukraine a suicide mission.)

Logistics - having plenty of extra vehicles available is important.  Replacing 2 with 1 isn’t ideal, even if the replacement can carry twice as much.  When war happens, shit gets blown up.  A blown up fancy truck is still a blown up truck.  

Many other lessons in active & passive EW, loitering munitions, full-spectrum warfare, little green men, group psychology, etc.  (ie setting up local governments in territories seized, and having them vote to leave host country.  Or the mass intercept of enemy comms via cell phone towers.  Etc)

Let’s learn as much as we can from this conflict, from both sides - so that as we move forward with various equipment purchases, we can tailor our force to be far more effective than it may have otherwise been.


----------



## TacticalTea

CBH99 said:


> You know the end is near _when_…
> 
> 
> It’s sad in a way.  An incredibly clever KGB guy networked with the right people & organizations essentially cobbled together a functioning government, get the economy stabilized & somewhat on track, modernized Russia in _some_ ways and led it to where it _was_ prior to all this.
> 
> Only to lose so much of that, and for what?
> 
> Because _he_ wanted to own/control the resources of Ukraine?  Hated Ukrainians so much he committed to their genocide?  A genuine belief that Ukrainians would welcome them with open arms, and he’d be one step closer to USSR 2.0?
> 
> _Note, it’s uncommon for a local population to greet you with open arms & true generosity when you bomb their schools & malls, condone things such as the Bucha Massacre, and turn a blind eye to blatant war crimes._  Not sure what you expected there Putin…
> 
> 
> All of this bloodshed & true horror for those trapped inside the war, and for what?
> 
> An extremely impressive legacy, ruined in the end because…why?  Even if Putin succeeded, what would have really been accomplished?


That's what puzzles me as well.

Yeah sure we can all conjure up reasons for the invasion, and we've all read articles about Ukrainian resources and imperial ambitions.

But why, precisely. Why now, and to what end? What internal pressures was Vladimir Vladimirovich responding to? What made him say ''go''?




CBH99 said:


> I do wish we could have donated more than 4 M777’s, and those talks had gone somewhat differently - because then we could call out the government on how bare the shelves really are in some places.



CPC dropped the ball on this and barely said anything. PP himself still has said very little about Ukraine and, as far as I'm aware, nothing about the CAF.


----------



## GK .Dundas

I think PP is still waiting for his base to get back to his as to weather they're for or agin the invasion.


----------



## CBH99

TacticalTea said:


> CPC dropped the ball on this and barely said anything. PP himself still has said very little about Ukraine and, as far as I'm aware, nothing about the CAF.


I totally agree.  Let’s hope that changes now that he’s officially their leader.

The CPC absolutely dropped the ball on this.  But in all fairness, they’ve dropped the ball on so much with Erin O’Toole at the helm.  The guy was practically invisible.  

During the last election I actually had to Google him just to see what he looked like, and I follow politics reasonably close enough I shouldn’t have had to.  

Between Covid, the economy/inflation, various foreign policy points, this issue with regards to the Ukrainian conflict, etc - let’s hope now that PP is leader of the CPC, he’ll start being vocal about a lot more.  

🙏🏻


----------



## Lumber

GK .Dundas said:


> I think PP is still waiting for his base to get back to his as to weather they're for or agin the invasion.


This is the problem with a populist government/leader.

To an extent , our elected leaders should represent our wishes.

However, people are stupid, uninformed, panicky, and dangerous. I expect our leaders, because it's their job, to know more about issues, especially with respect to national security.

Everything with respect to maintaining a peaceful world orders points toward supporting Ukraine and not letting Russia win.

However, if a very loud and vocal and uninformed portion of his supporters demand that Canada stop supporting Ukraine, I'm worried he will campaign on just that.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

The problem of throwing bodies and equipment at a problem only works if you have the mechanism to replenish them. If you don't, you need to be deliberate and have a concentration of force that leads to mission success.

Russia has been throwing everything but the kitchen sink at the problem without strategic or operational, and minimal tactical direction. The UA have the initiative and have been very deliberate of where and when they fight. The results are clearly becoming apparent which strategy works best in this scenario. 

If 1 GTA is toast, I can foresee the remainder of the "offensive" stalling out.


----------



## Haggis

CBH99 said:


> I totally agree.  Let’s hope that changes now that he’s officially their leader.
> 
> The CPC absolutely dropped the ball on this.  But in all fairness, they’ve dropped the ball on so much with Erin O’Toole at the helm.  The guy was practically invisible.
> 
> During the last election I actually had to Google him just to see what he looked like, and I follow politics reasonably close enough I shouldn’t have had to.
> 
> Between Covid, the economy/inflation, various foreign policy points, this issue with regards to the Ukrainian conflict, etc - let’s hope now that PP is leader of the CPC, he’ll start being vocal about a lot more.
> 
> 🙏🏻


At the risk of seeming consipiratorial,  the CPC and their leader can comment on any topic. But if that comment doesn't get media exposure (good or bad) it may as well have never been made.


----------



## TacticalTea

Haggis said:


> At the risk of seeming consipiratorial,  the CPC and their leader can comment on any topic. But if that comment doesn't get media exposure (good or bad) it may as well have never been made.


To a degree. But ponder this:

_A man was banned from Instagram yet remained the most viewed personality on that platform._

Social media circumvents the logic you described. Now, obviously Ukraine and the CAF aren't the sexiest topics* - especially for Instagram - but Twitter (and Facebook) can be leveraged to good effect and better reach the ''voting'' age groups. 

*:Russia/Ukraine can easily be brought to fore by tying the issue to inflation and the need for natural gas infrastructure.

(if by ''media exposure'' you also meant popular social media exposure, then I will eat my hat)


----------



## GR66

FormerHorseGuard said:


> As an uninformed person, how would you figure out real facts from propaganda stories for both sides of the conflict.  Such as number of tanks captured, destroyed,  damage reports etc?  When the CF was operating over seas in a conflict, they did not report tanks damaged or to the extent the losses of apcs, and trucks  so the enemy would not get an official tally of battle field damages. What figures are trust worthy and what figures are totally made up and no where close?  KIA, WIA, numbers, what is real? None of the numbers seem real to me. Just curious


Sites like Oryx Blog only report losses which can be confirmed through photo or videographic evidence.  Because of this the numbers they report are certainly less than the actual counts but they do at least give a good indication of the general scope of the equipment losses.


----------



## GR66

IKnowNothing said:


> Just a quick wiki skim of Eastern Military district
> 
> Both 5th Independent Guards Tank and 37th Independent Guards Motor Rifle Reported at Kyiv Offensive, latter with 50% casualties
> 38th and 64th  Motor Rifle reported at Izyum, decimated and unwilling to continue
> 
> 36th MRB reported as part of the invasion, no detail
> 39th not reported as connected
> 127th Motor Rifle Division reported committed


Don't let our illustrious leaders see that or they'll be rushing out to cash in "Peace Dividend 2.0" before we know it!


----------



## KevinB

GR66 said:


> Don't let our illustrious leaders see that or they'll be rushing out to cash in "Peace Dividend 2.0" before we know it!


Like last time the world gets more unstable, and again some folks talk Peace Dividend.  

Insanity.


----------



## IKnowNothing

GR66 said:


> Don't let our illustrious leaders see that or they'll be rushing out to cash in "Peace Dividend 2.0" before we know it!


My first thought was that it's a good thing for Russia that Jack Ryan wasn't around to lead full disarmament, don't think the US would help keep China out of Siberia at the moment.


----------



## KevinB

IKnowNothing said:


> My first thought was that it's a good thing for Russia that Jack Ryan wasn't around to lead full disarmament, don't think the US would help keep China out of Siberia at the moment.


I suspect that high levels of NATO have discussed this, and security provisions for Russian would be part of a Marshall Plan 2.0 for Eastern Europe.


----------



## CBH99

IKnowNothing said:


> My first thought was that it's a good thing for Russia that Jack Ryan wasn't around to lead full disarmament, don't think the US would help keep China out of Siberia at the moment.


Unless the Chinese are as incompetent as the Russians proved to be -  I don't know that America could or should keep the Chinese from rolling into Siberia.

Mind you the Chinese have the same utility that the Soviets had in WW2 - probably even moreso.  People.   Lots and lots of people.   Lots and lots of expendable people...


----------



## IKnowNothing

CBH99 said:


> Unless the Chinese are as incompetent as the Russians proved to be -  I don't know that America could or should keep the Chinese from rolling into Siberia.


Clancy reference- Bear and the Dragon based on the apparent similarities between the rough shape of the fictional and real Eastern Military Districts


----------



## FJAG

GR66 said:


> Don't let our illustrious leaders see that or they'll be rushing out to cash in "Peace Dividend 2.0" before we know it!


It's been cashed all along but not so much in dollars as in capabilities. The budget is actually significantly higher. 

Based on GDP it was 1.4% in '96 - dropped to 1% by '14 before rising back up to 1.4% in '20 according to the World Bank.

In dollars it was US$8.6 Billion in '96 - dropped to US$7.7 Billion in '98 and then steadily rose to US$ 23 Billion in '20.

Note that the rate of inflation in Canada from '96 to '20 was 154% which is to say that the budget increased significantly over the basic rate of inflation. If inflation was the only factor, the budget should simply have risen to US$12 Billion by '20.

Strength wise we went from 79,500 RegF in '96 to '72,000 in '20.  So if we're spending a lot more but have less full-time people then the new money must be for all those new capabilities we acquired during '96 to '20 - Oh! Wait! We really didn't get that much, did we? So .... where is all that new money going?????


----------



## Furniture

FJAG said:


> It's been cashed all along but not so much in dollars as in capabilities. The budget is actually significantly higher.
> 
> Based on GDP it was 1.4% in '96 - dropped to 1% by '14 before rising back up to 1.4% in '20 according to the World Bank.
> 
> In dollars it was US$8.6 Billion in '96 - dropped to US$7.7 Billion in '98 and then steadily rose to US$ 23 Billion in '20.
> 
> Note that the rate of inflation in Canada from '96 to '20 was 154% which is to say that the budget increased significantly over the basic rate of inflation. If inflation was the only factor, the budget should simply have risen to US$12 Billion by '20.
> 
> Strength wise we went from 79,500 RegF in '96 to '72,000 in '20.  So if we're spending a lot more but have less full-time people then the new money must be for all those new capabilities we acquired during '96 to '20 - Oh! Wait! We really didn't get that much, did we? So .... where is all that new money going?????


What has defense inflation been?

It's well and good that the budget has outpaced general inflation, but has it kept up with the rate of inflation in the defense sector?


----------



## KevinB

Furniture said:


> What has defense inflation been?
> 
> It's well and good that the budget has outpaced general inflation, but has it kept up with the rate of inflation in the defense sector?


Probably wrong thread (and yes I was guilty of off topic wandering above for this). 

That is a bit of a red herring, as Canada’s Capital Equipment programs have dropped - while salaries have spiked. 
   While some items of Defense Materials have spiked, it’s the wages of the CAF that really put a burden on the budget.


----------



## GR66

Furniture said:


> What has defense inflation been?
> 
> It's well and good that the budget has outpaced general inflation, but has it kept up with the rate of inflation in the defense sector?


Defense inflation only counts if you've actually bought something...


----------



## MilEME09

Add to the list of kit NATO is ripping apart right now


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569707532687478784


----------



## FormerHorseGuard

MilEME09 said:


> Add to the list of kit NATO is ripping apart right now
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569707532687478784


at first glance I thought it was some sort of recovery vehicle, then I read the post.  

How much can Russia afford to surrender, have captured or blown up before they require the biggest rebuild in Military History?


----------



## KevinB

FormerHorseGuard said:


> How much can Russia afford to surrender, have captured or blown up before they require the biggest rebuild in Military History?


Answer; less than what they lost…


----------



## Spencer100

Lumber said:


> I think it's a good thing we've donated all of this stuff and gotten it off our shelves. We should donate more. Following this conflict, the west is going to need to spend years studying and dissecting the lessons learned from the very first large scale conflict between two militaries armed with full modern weapons. Once we learn what works and what doesn't, we can replace our empty shelves with the best of what we actually need.


I think the idea is to not replace them.   Keep moving in the direction of an armed constabulary.


----------



## Spencer100

FormerHorseGuard said:


> at first glance I thought it was some sort of recovery vehicle, then I read the post.
> 
> How much can Russia afford to surrender, have captured or blown up before they require the biggest rebuild in Military History?


They won't be able to rebuild to the level they were at.  Their economy will not be able to support it.  With one small caveat. They use the oil revenue to plow into the military and Defence R&D and its manufacturing and industrial capacity and put the country on a war type industrial footing.


----------



## Kirkhill

Its not just the money and the equipment.  I don't think they have the technical skills or manufacturing capacity to build a competitive military domestically.

Most of their gear is reworked Soviet stuff.  And their modern stuff is knockoffs of Western ideas.  A lot made with black market parts (toaster electronics in missiles?).

As the Farmer famously said to the Tourist - you can't get there from here.

Meanwhile - Kherson wasn't a feint.  Kharkiv was more of a Plan B.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xdc5zt

And the Russians aren't slowing down much.



			Russian invaders leave Kreminna in Luhansk region – regional governor


----------



## Kirkhill

Nerves in the South


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569776560630005760

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569689519087026179


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569659989417152515

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xdbrn0


Nerves in the East


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569620011454439424

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569768853428658177


----------



## Kirkhill

New grouping of nations - Kyiv Security Compact


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xdep3h


----------



## ModlrMike

If the news about Melitopol is correct, this potentially cuts Crimea off to resupply by sea, and via the Kerch (Crimean) bridge. It also puts that same bridge within range of Ukrainian weapons. Ukraine already controls the sea lanes, taking out the bridge would make for a very hard time in Crimea.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Kirkhill said:


> New grouping of nations - Kyiv Security Compact
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xdep3h


If one of the objectives of the SMO was to keep Ukraine out of NATO.... Mission Failed Successfully.


----------



## MilEME09

Russian torture chamber reportly found under former Russian HQ in Balakliya. The war crime trials after this war are going to be hard to stomach 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569820453929160705


----------



## CBH99

ModlrMike said:


> If the news about Melitopol is correct, this potentially cuts Crimea off to resupply by sea, and via the Kerch (Crimean) bridge. It also puts that same bridge within range of Ukrainian weapons. Ukraine already controls the sea lanes, taking out the bridge would make for a very hard time in Crimea.


Its such a far cry from last time, when Russia controlled the sea lanes. 

I remember watching footage of the Russian navy intercepting a small Ukrainian boat that was trying like hell to evade.


Who would have thought the Russians would be the ones scared of their neighbour? 

It's one thing to recognize a country isn't to be f**ked with, its something else to have it as your neighbor while your own armed forces are decimated/ineffective.


----------



## Good2Golf

ModlrMike said:


> If the news about Melitopol is correct, this potentially cuts Crimea off to resupply by sea, and via the Kerch (Crimean) bridge. It also puts that same bridge within range of Ukrainian weapons. Ukraine already controls the sea lanes, taking out the bridge would make for a very hard time in Crimea.


Let RUAF run out of Crimea via Kerch THEN blow the bridge, right back to 2013… 😉


----------



## GR66

Good2Golf said:


> Let RUAF run out of Crimea via Kerch THEN blow the bridge, right back to 2013… 😉


Crimea is the one place where I worry about how Russia may respond to Ukrainian advances.  Unlike the rest of Ukraine, Russia has officially annexed Crimea and considers it their national territory (it only actually became part of the Ukrainian SSR in 1954).  With the Russian Black Sea fleet based in Sevastopol it is also extremely strategically important for Russia.  This is the one place where I can see Russia using WMDs if they are at serious risk of being driven out by Ukraine.


----------



## Skysix

GR66 said:


> Crimea is the one place where I worry about how Russia may respond to Ukrainian advances.  Unlike the rest of Ukraine, Russia has officially annexed Crimea and considers it their national territory (it only actually became part of the Ukrainian SSR in 1954).  With the Russian Black Sea fleet based in Sevastopol it is also extremely strategically important for Russia.  This is the one place where I can see Russia using WMDs if they are at serious risk of being driven out by Ukraine.


Seige tactics. Sea control from shore by missile,  mine the waters and target the top of the arches.


----------



## TacticalTea

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569936123291484161
Further rumbling at the fault lines.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

TacticalTea said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569936123291484161
> Further rumbling at the fault lines.


Almost as if the regional Superpower that was keeping the peace was found to be a paper tiger. Lots of scores to be settled in the former USSR. This won't be the only flashpoint I'm sure.


----------



## Lumber

rmc_wannabe said:


> Almost as if the regional Superpower that was keeping the peace was found to be a paper tiger. Lots of scores to be settled in the former USSR. This won't be the only flashpoint I'm sure.


I wouldn't say they are being exposed as a paper tiger. They've still managed to cause untold Uk casualties, destroyed millions of dollars of equipment, and still have thousands of tanks in reserve. The bulk of the VKS and their Navy haven't even been fully tested (though I guess to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan the VMF matters not). Rather, if this really is a sign of tensions boiling over due to an apparent "power vacuum", I would say the vacuum comes from the fact that the Russian military is distracted, and the will to "open new fronts" is seen as lacking.


----------



## MilEME09

Lumber said:


> I wouldn't say they are being exposed as a paper tiger. They've still managed to cause untold Uk casualties, destroyed millions of dollars of equipment, and still have thousands of tanks in reserve. The bulk of the VKS and their Navy haven't even been fully tested (though I guess to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan the VMF matters not). Rather, if this really is a sign of tensions boiling over due to an apparent "power vacuum", I would say the vacuum comes from the fact that the Russian military is distracted, and the will to "open new fronts" is seen as lacking.


1. Majority of casualties are sadly civilians as Russia uses cruise missiles as terror weapons

2. They have lost or had captured more equipment then they destroyed (Ukraine has more tanks now then when they started the war)

3. Reserves are in highly questionable condition given reports of tanks being sent to thr front from storage without functioning guns.

4. VKS has been unwilling to commit full in Ukraine, despite thousands of aircraft, why? We can only speculate but it doesn't reflect well either way.

I'd contend Russia is very much a paper tiger


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> I'd contend Russia is very much a paper tiger


Effectively, for now.  Tomayto, tomahto…still a red thing you chop up and throw in a salad.

It’ll take a while to reestablish its cred.


----------



## Lumber

MilEME09 said:


> 1. Majority of casualties are sadly civilians as Russia uses cruise missiles as terror weapons
> 
> 2. They have lost or had captured more equipment then they destroyed (Ukraine has more tanks now then when they started the war)
> 
> 3. Reserves are in highly questionable condition given reports of tanks being sent to thr front from storage without functioning guns.
> 
> 4. VKS has been unwilling to commit full in Ukraine, despite thousands of aircraft, why? We can only speculate but it doesn't reflect well either way.
> 
> I'd contend Russia is very much a paper tiger


My point is, to most countries, it doesn't matter if the tiger is made of paper if the tiger is 100ft tall and has wheels. It's going to crush you nonetheless.


----------



## KevinB

Lumber said:


> My point is, to most countries, it doesn't matter if the tiger is made of paper if the tiger is 100ft tall and has wheels. It's going to crush you nonetheless.


Buy a lighter and burn it first.


----------



## Kirkhill

Lumber said:


> My point is, to most countries, it doesn't matter if the tiger is made of paper if the tiger is 100ft tall and has wheels. It's going to crush you nonetheless.



The Germans and the French still seem unsure.  Or is it that they are concerned about the loss of the tiger, paper or not, and its influence on others?

Who will the French play off against the Americans?  China seems the obvious new ride.  But that would be a bigger tiger.


----------



## Spencer100

rmc_wannabe said:


> Almost as if the regional Superpower that was keeping the peace was found to be a paper tiger. Lots of scores to be settled in the former USSR. This won't be the only flashpoint I'm sure.


Next one.









						The Latest Armenia-Azerbaijan Flareup Explained
					

Each side claims dozens were killed and blames the other for this latest outburst in violence between the two former Soviet Republics.




					www.thedrive.com


----------



## ueo

Lumber said:


> I think it's a good thing we've donated all of this stuff and gotten it off our shelves. We should donate more. Following this conflict, the west is going to need to spend years studying and dissecting the lessons learned from the very first large scale conflict between two militaries armed with full modern weapons. Once we learn what works and what doesn't, we can replace our empty shelves with the best of what we actually need.


Only if we can tinker with the design so its Canadian, modular and can be built in several ridings, at least IMHO.


----------



## childs56

Kirkhill said:


> The Germans and the French still seem unsure.  Or is it that they are concerned about the loss of the tiger, paper or not, and its influence on others?
> 
> Who will the French play off against the Americans?  China seems the obvious new ride.  But that would be a bigger tiger.


The Germans, French along with Belgium and a few others have been playing both sides for a long time. Working each other to their advantage in their foreign interests.  Over the past 20 years things have been falling apart at an alarming rate. The influence they have had in Africa for example has fallen substantially. It shows, I wonder how so much Embargo Oil makes it to market, especially when two countries regularly dance around UN resolutions.  
We either accept their choices or now is the time to call them out over their crap they have been doing for years. The tough call needs to be made.


----------



## Kirkhill

childs56 said:


> The Germans, French along with Belgium and a few others have been playing both sides for a long time. Working each other to their advantage in their foreign interests.  Over the past 20 years things have been falling apart at an alarming rate. The influence they have had in Africa for example has fallen substantially. It shows, I wonder how so much Embargo Oil makes it to market, especially when two countries regularly dance around UN resolutions.
> We either accept their choices or now is the time to call them out over their crap they have been doing for years. The tough call needs to be made.



Total Energies is always worth a look in the Canadian context.


----------



## Lumber

KevinB said:


> Buy a lighter and burn it first.


Ok, am I out to lunch? I'm getting a lot of kick back so I'm starting to feel like either I'm wrong or I'm not being clear enough.

Maybe it's semantics and we're not all visualizing the same thing when we hear "paper tiger".

All I'm saying is that while Russia's armed forces may not be what anyone expected to be in terms of quality of equipment and training, they still have enough strength to pose a serious threat.


----------



## Furniture

Lumber said:


> Ok, am I out to lunch? I'm getting a lot of kick back so I'm starting to feel like either I'm wrong or I'm not being clear enough.
> 
> Maybe it's semantics and we're not all visualizing the same thing when we hear "paper tiger".
> 
> All I'm saying is that while Russia's armed forces may not be what anyone expected to be in terms of quality of equipment and training, they still have enough strength to pose a serious threat.


To whom? 

Their logistics have been shown to be lacking, and their professional forces have been decimated. Sure they can bomb, maybe land some troops, but can they sustain a second conflict while at war in Ukraine? 

Can Azerbaijan with Turkish support likely deal with anything Russia sends? Quite possibly...


----------



## KevinB

@Lumber see @Furniture ‘s reply. 

Russia is currently embroiled in Ukraine, they have little force left at this point w/o mobilization to do anything elsewhere.  

Even with Mobilization, they have serious deficiencies, and while they could then menace some smaller non NATO countries, their ability to project power beyond that is so degraded that they are now simply a spent has been.


----------



## Kirkhill

Lumber said:


> Ok, am I out to lunch? I'm getting a lot of kick back so I'm starting to feel like either I'm wrong or I'm not being clear enough.
> 
> Maybe it's semantics and we're not all visualizing the same thing when we hear "paper tiger".
> 
> All I'm saying is that while Russia's armed forces may not be what anyone expected to be in terms of quality of equipment and training, they still have enough strength to pose a serious threat.



What I'm thinking is that even paper tigers have their uses on a multi-player board.  It doesn't matter if the tiger is real or not for some people, only that there appears to be a tiger on the board.  

I take your point about Russia still being a potent force - but its lack of ability to organise successfully makes it a less useful tool in my view.

This Ukrainian, again in my view, has a better analogy.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xd4jje


----------



## CBH99

Lumber said:


> Ok, am I out to lunch? I'm getting a lot of kick back so I'm starting to feel like either I'm wrong or I'm not being clear enough.
> 
> Maybe it's semantics and we're not all visualizing the same thing when we hear "paper tiger".
> 
> All I'm saying is that while Russia's armed forces may not be what anyone expected to be in terms of quality of equipment and training, they still have enough strength to pose a serious threat.


I agree with you - Russia still can pose a serious threat, just not conventionally.  

Every unit in the western military district has been committed, depleted of vehicles, weapons, and personnel.  

Any hope that the eastern military district could supply fresh units was cut thin, when it turns out their units had also been committed to the fight.  

______


Did Russia turn out to be a paper tiger?  Kind of, yes & no.  

At the beginning of the conflict, I’d say no.  190,000 troops blitzkrieg across a border with helicopter support, close air, generous artillery support, and able to call on fires from maritime units - plus SOF - was not something a paper tiger could do.  

Where things went tits up was when the troops realized they’d been deployed on a lie & started to refuse to participate, their senior leadership didn’t understand you can’t command loyalty through fear, and their logistics fell apart after constant harassment.  (Rail likes constantly being sabotaged, supply conveys being decimated by loitering munitions & ambushes, and supply depots within Russia magically blowing up.)

With no food or water for the troops, and no motivation to fight what many of them saw as an unjust war - a lot of them just said ‘screw it’ and went back to Russia.  

With no fuel for the vehicles, what else could crews do once their vehicles became a pillbox?

Add to that the staggering loss of aircraft due to highly dispersed, almost impossible to detect MANPADS littering the landscape, a VDV that basically wiped themselves out, and the loss of some of steady ships of the Black Sea Fleet… in a _conventional_ sense, they don’t pose much of a threat now.  

Unconventionally?  I still have a gut feeling Vlad has something up his sleeve…

They don’t have the reserves or the reserve tanks you think they do.  They’ve all been used up.  

______

Had their leadership been decent, more robust logistics, and a focused plan they could have collectively executed on - they could have accomplished more, and would not seem to be a paper tiger.  

They weren’t a paper tiger when this started.  They are now & for the foreseeable future.  


Any countries that were relying on big Bae Russia to come to their aid in a conflict might find themselves in perpetual waiting, with whatever military forces Russia still does have will be distracted.


----------



## Kirkhill

CBH99 said:


> Any countries that were relying on big Bae Russia to come to their aid in a conflict might find themselves in perpetual waiting, with whatever military forces Russia still does have will be distracted.



Let's just take Zimbabwe as an example.  Zimbabwe played Russia against the Chinese to get rid of Ian Smith and the Brits.  They then got rid of the Russians.  Now they have had a taste of the Chinese how are they feeling about the previous system?


----------



## OldSolduer

ueo said:


> Only if we can tinker with the design so its Canadian, modular and can be built in several ridings, at least IMHO.


Better yet the GoC dithers, kicks the cans down the road and the CAF withers and dies. The last left is NDHQ with a staff and a CDS at the rank of major.


----------



## FJAG

OldSolduer said:


> Better yet the GoC dithers, kicks the cans down the road and the CAF withers and dies. The last left is NDHQ with a staff and a CDS at the rank of major.


  Ha! You optimist you. If all the CAF is down to is the CDS then she'll still have the rank of general.

🍻


----------



## Kirkhill

Izyum Falls Sept 11
Ukrainian Government starts handing out pension checks Sept 13
President of Ukraine visits Sept 14
1st train from Izyum to Kupyansk runs Sept 14

How to win wars.




__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xdzqwu


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570062323376603136

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xe7crq


----------



## Kirkhill

And these are the new Security Guarantees Kyiv is seeking.

Guarantors include Canada, Turkey, Poland, the US and the UK and France, Germany and Italy.  

China and Russia are both excluded.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570080057816748033


----------



## Kirkhill

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xdl7eh


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Lumber said:


> Ok, am I out to lunch? I'm getting a lot of kick back so I'm starting to feel like either I'm wrong or I'm not being clear enough.
> 
> Maybe it's semantics and we're not all visualizing the same thing when we hear "paper tiger".
> 
> All I'm saying is that while Russia's armed forces may not be what anyone expected to be in terms of quality of equipment and training, they still have enough strength to pose a serious threat.


@Lumber  You've made the fatal mistake of being seen as complimenting the Russians. 😆

It's 2022 dude!

Russia is not a paper tiger but their opening play in the War failed which is why we are currently in the situation we were in.  It nearly worked (it did work in the South and the UA in that AO collapsed which is why Russia now occupies Kherson. 

The reality is the largest Army in Europe smashed into the second largest Army in Europe (who had been preparing for 8 years for this) and we now know what that looks like with modern weaponry.



Furniture said:


> To whom?
> 
> Their logistics have been shown to be lacking, and their professional forces have been decimated. Sure they can bomb, maybe land some troops, but can they sustain a second conflict while at war in Ukraine?
> 
> Can Azerbaijan with Turkish support likely deal with anything Russia sends? Quite possibly...


I wouldn't say their logistics have been lacking.  An Army that is able to sustain a shell expenditure rate of 50,000 rds a day for months on end doesn't have bad logistics.

They suffered setbacks as a result of their failure.  Ukraine would be toast without the significant support received from NATO and mostly the Americans.


----------



## Furniture

Humphrey Bogart said:


> @Lumber  You've made the fatal mistake of being seen as complimenting the Russians. 😆
> 
> It's 2022 dude!
> 
> Russia is not a paper tiger but their opening play in the War failed which is why we are currently in the situation we were in.  It nearly worked (it did work in the South and the UA in that AO collapsed which is why Russia now occupies Kherson.
> 
> The reality is the largest Army in Europe smashed into the second largest Army in Europe (who had been preparing for 8 years for this) and we now know what that looks like with modern weaponry.
> 
> 
> I wouldn't say their logistics have been lacking.  An Army that is able to sustain a shell expenditure rate of 50,000 rds a day for months on end doesn't have bad logistics.
> 
> They suffered setbacks as a result of their failure.  Ukraine would be toast without the significant support received from NATO and mostly the Americans.


Russia _wasn't _necessarily a paper tiger, but it also wasn't the threat it was perceived to be. Today Russia _ is_ a paper tiger(conventionally) as they have spent themselves fighting a foolish war, against the entirety of the Western world vis Ukraine. 

Ukraine had the second largest army, but it was significantly smaller than Russia's.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Furniture said:


> Russia _wasn't _necessarily a paper tiger, but it also wasn't the threat it was perceived to be. Today Russia _ is_ a paper tiger(conventionally) as they have spent themselves fighting a foolish war, against the entirety of the Western world vis Ukraine.
> 
> Ukraine had the second largest army, but it was significantly smaller that Russia's.


They are a significant threat, just not in the ways people thought they were.  Look at energy markets now, Russia has completely destabilized them.

Ukraine's Army is also now larger than Russia’s due to mobilization.  

Russia will not succeed in achieving Regime change in Kyiv.  What exactly they achieve in the Ukraine will be decided over the next few months.

If anyone is a paper tiger, it's the EU.


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> They are a significant threat, just not in the ways people thought they were.  Look at energy markets now, Russia has completely destabilized them.
> 
> Ukraine's Army is also now larger than Russia’s due to mobilization.
> 
> Russia will not succeed in achieving Regime change in Kyiv.  What exactly they achieve in the Ukraine will be decided over the next few months.
> 
> If anyone is a paper tiger, it's the EU.



Lord, but you love your redirections!


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Kirkhill said:


> Lord, but you love your redirections!


What redirection?  We could have a discussion or we could keep spamming Twitter and Reddit feeds.  I've got Apps for that though.

@Furniture 

I've been saying for months now the energy war would have a massive impact.  That's why Scholz was on the phone with Putin for 1 1/2 hours today.









						Putin does not believe Ukraine war a ‘mistake’: German leader
					

German leader says no indication Putin has changed stance on Ukraine as UN chief says prospects for peace are ‘minimal’.




					www.aljazeera.com
				




We have reason to be optimistic.  Ukraine hit a weak part of the front and finally showed that they could manage an operation above the Battalion level.  They dealt mostly with DPR Militia though and not a whole lot of actual Russian Army.  

What happens over the Fall and Winter will be interesting. There is a lot more fighting to do yet.


----------



## Kirkhill

I enjoy sorting trash.  Where there's muck there's money.


----------



## KevinB

Humphrey Bogart said:


> We have reason to be optimistic.  Ukraine hit a weak part of the front and finally showed that they could manage an operation above the Battalion level.  They dealt mostly with DPR Militia though and not a whole lot of actual Russian Army.


4 RuAF BTG and large elements of 3 CAA, at least 5% of their force and IMHO more likely to be IVO of 10% was lost. 


Humphrey Bogart said:


> What happens over the Fall and Winter will be interesting. There is a lot more fighting to do yet.


That is very very true.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

KevinB said:


> 4 RuAF BTG and large elements of 3 CAA, at least 5% of their force and IMHO more likely to be IVO of 10% was lost.
> 
> That is very very true.


Yep but we also don't know what State they were in to begin with.  Come to think of it, we don't know a whole lot 😎

If Ukraine had destroyed or captured 4 BTGs and a substantial portion of 3 CAA worth of kit and personnel, there would be pictures all over the interwebz right now, especially with Ukraines dominance in IO in the West.  

As I said, significant operational victory but we don't know the full impact yet or do we have anywhere near a complete picture.


----------



## Kirkhill

Found in the trash...


----------



## brihard

An interesting thread on the dynamics of support or opposition of, or apathy towards the war within the Russian population:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570101428542402561


----------



## Retired AF Guy

The folks over at SOFREP have an updated list of destroyed/captured Russian equipment:



> Here’s the most updated list of retrieved Russian artillery and destroyed weapons throughout the war:​Tanks (1112, of which destroyed: 664, damaged: 44, abandoned: 51, captured: 353)​
> 1 T-62M
> 2 T-64A
> 40 T-64BV
> 31 T-72A
> 8 T-72AV
> 165 T-72B
> 62 T-72B Obr. 1989
> 10 T-72BA
> 171 T-72B3
> 149 T-72B3 Obr. 2016
> 54 Unknown T-72
> 87 T-80BV
> 2 T-80BVK
> 81 T-80U
> 2 T-80UK
> 5 T-80UE-1
> 1 T-80UM2
> 37 T-80BVM
> 20 T-90A
> 2 T-90M
> 175 Unknown tank
> Armoured Fighting Vehicles (568, of which destroyed: 377, damaged: 7, abandoned: 29, captured: 155)​
> 17 BRM-1K reconnaissance vehicle
> 3 BRDM-2
> 217 MT-LB
> 96 MT-LBVM and MT-LBVMK
> 7 MT-LB with ZU-23 AA gun
> 3 MT-LBM 6MB
> 14 MT-LBu
> 1 Vityaz DT-10PM articulated tracked carrier
> 3 Vityaz DT-30 articulated tracked carrier
> 2 GAZ-3344-20 ‘Aleut’ articulated tracked carrier
> 1 2S1 with ZU-23 AA gun
> 8 Unknown BTR-D/BMD-2
> 41 Unknown BTR-80/BTR-82A
> 155 Unknown AFV
> Infantry Fighting Vehicles (1232, of which destroyed: 765, damaged: 25, abandoned: 73, captured: 369)​
> 144 BMP-1(P)
> 16 BMP-1AM
> 445 BMP-2(K)
> 2 BMP-2M
> 1 BMP-2 675-sb3KDZ
> 67 Unknown BMP-1/2
> 139 BMP-3
> 2 BMO-T
> 131 BMD-2
> 56 BMD-4M
> 224 BTR-82A(M)
> Armoured Personnel Carriers (157, of which destroyed: 80, damaged: 2, abandoned: 9, captured: 66)
> 
> 
> 1 BTR-60PB
> 2 BTR-70
> 1 BTR-70M
> 85 BTR-80
> 57 BTR-D
> 11 BTR-MDM ‘Rakushka’
> Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) Vehicles (33, of which destroyed: 17, damaged: 4, abandoned: 2, captured: 10)​
> 14 KamAZ-63968 Typhoon
> 2 Kamaz-435029 Patrol-A
> 9 K-53949 Typhoon-K
> 8 K-53949 Linza
> Infantry Mobility Vehicles (122, of which destroyed: 85, damaged: 2, abandoned: 1, captured: 34)​
> 9 GAZ Tigr
> 88 GAZ Tigr-M
> 25 Iveco LMV Rys
> Command Posts And Communications Stations (134, of which destroyed: 71, abandoned: 8, captured: 55)​
> 9 BMP-1KSh command and staff vehicle
> 5 BMD-1KSh-A command vehicle
> 1 BTR-60PU-12M air defence command vehicle
> 3 R-145BM1 command vehicle
> 2 R-142NSA command and signals vehicle
> 44 R-149MA1 command and staff vehicle
> 18 R-149MA3 command and staff vehicle
> 2 APE-5 command post
> 1 MSh-5350.1 command vehicle
> 1 9S470M1 (or variant thereof) command post (for Buk-M1/2)
> 1 MP-2IM signals vehicle
> 5 Barnaul-T 9С932-1 automated system for air defence units
> 1 9S932-2 intelligence, control and command vehicle (for Barnaul-T)
> 1 Command vehicle for Podlet-K1 low-altitude S-band surveillance radar
> 7 R-149AKSh-1 command and signals vehicle
> 17 R-166-0.5 signals vehicle
> 1 P-260 Redut-2US communication system
> 2 R-419L1 communications station
> 1 P-260-U signal vehicle (for Redut-2US signal and communications system)
> 1 MP-1IM signal vehicle
> 2 R-439-MD2 SatCom Station
> 2 Auriga-1.2V portable satellite communications station
> 6 Unknown communications station based on the KamAZ 6×6
> 1 Unknown communications station
> Engineering Vehicles And Equipment (200, of which destroyed: 80, damaged: 3, abandoned: 38, captured: 79)​
> 1 UR-67 mine clearing charge on BTR-D APC
> 16 UR-77 ‘Meteorit’ mine clearing vehicle
> 1 GMZ-3 minelayer
> 4 RKhM-6 Povozka
> 1 RKhM-6 CBRN reconnaissance vehicle
> 7 BAT-2 heavy engineering vehicle
> 2 MDK-3 trench-digging vehicle
> 1 BTS-4A armoured recovery vehicle
> 17 BREM-1 armoured recovery vehicle
> 1 BREM-2 armoured recovery vehicle
> 5 BREM-Ch “BREM-4” armoured recovery vehicle
> 2 BREM-D armoured recovery vehicle
> 2 BREM-K armoured recovery vehicle
> 4 REM-KL recovery vehicle
> 2 MTP-A2 recovery vehicle
> 1 MTP-A2.1 recovery vehicle
> 1 Ural-4320 KET-L recovery vehicle
> 4 Ural-4320 KT-L recovery vehicle
> 14 IMR-2(M) combat engineering vehicle
> 1 IMR-3M combat engineering vehicle
> 10 PTS-3 tracked amphibious transport
> 24 TMM-3 bridge layer
> 1 MTU-72 bridge layer
> 6 PMP floating bridge
> 24 PP-2005 floating bridge
> 8 Pontoon bridge
> 1 BMK-130M/BMK-150 towing and motor boat
> 10 BMK-460 towing and motor boat
> 1 KrAZ-255B with excavator
> 7 KamAZ-5350 with EOV-3523 excavator
> 6 KamAZ-5350 with KS-45719-7M crane
> 1 KamAZ-5350 with crane
> 4 Ural-4320 with KS-3574M3 or KS-3574M crane
> 2 KamAZ KMV-10V boom crane truck
> 1 Ural-4320 with excavator
> 1 ED2x30-T400-3RA mobile generator
> 1 Mobile generator for Podlet-K1 low-altitude S-band surveillance radar
> 1 MTO-UB1 maintenance vehicle
> 2 MTO-AT mobile workshop
> 1 MTO-AG-3M
> 1 ARS-14U decontamination and degassing vehicle
> Self-Propelled Anti-Tank Missile Systems (25, of which destroyed: 9, abandoned: 5, captured: 11)​
> 2 9P148 Konkurs
> 21 9P149 Shturm-S
> 2 9P163M-1 Kornet-T
> Heavy Mortars (17, of which destroyed: 9, captured: 8)​
> 10 120mm 2B11/2S12
> 4 120mm 2B11/2S12A
> 2 Unknown heavy mortar
> 1 2B9 Vasilek 82mm automatic gun mortar
> Artillery Support Vehicles And Equipment (57, of which destroyed: 29, abandoned: 2, captured: 25)​
> 1 1V110 BM-21 Grad battery command vehicle
> 1 1V12 command vehicle
> 10 1V13(M) battery fire control center
> 7 1V14 battery command and forward observer vehicle
> 1 1V15M fire control and observation vehicle
> 7 1V119 artillery fire direction vehicle
> 22 9T452 transporter-loader (for BM-27 ‘Uragan’ MRL)
> 8 TZM-T reloader vehicle (for TOS-1A)
> Towed Artillery (89, of which destroyed: 30, damaged: 5, abandoned: 5, captured: 49)​
> 5 100mm MT-12 anti-tank gun
> 8 120mm 2B16 Nona-K howitzer
> 30 122mm D-30 howitzer
> 1 152mm D-20 gun-howitzer
> 40 152mm 2A65 Msta-B howitzer
> 1 152mm 2A36 Giatsint-B
> 4 Unknown towed artillery
> Self-Propelled Artillery (195, of which destroyed: 101, damaged: 8, abandoned: 13, captured: 73)​
> 13 120mm 2S9 Nona
> 2 120mm 2S23 Nona-SVK
> 2 120mm 2S34 Khosta
> 25 122mm 2S1 Gvozdika
> 59 152mm 2S3(M) Akatsiya
> 1 152mm 2S5 Giatsint-S
> 70 152mm 2S19 Msta-S
> 10 152mm 2S33 Msta-SM2
> 2 203mm 2S7M Malka
> 1 240mm 2S4 Tyulpan
> 9 Unknown SPG
> Multiple Rocket Launchers (108, of which destroyed: 63, damaged: 1, abandoned: 2, captured: 38)​
> 71 122mm BM-21 Grad
> 21 220mm BM-27 Uragan
> 9 122mm 2B17 Tornado-G
> 5 220mm TOS-1A
> 2 Unknown MRL
> Anti-Aircraft Guns (9, of which destroyed: 2, captured: 9)​
> 9 23mm ZU-23-2
> Self-Propelled Anti-Aircraft Guns (20, of which destroyed: 10, abandoned: 3, captured: 5)​
> 3 BTR-ZD Skrezhet
> 6 ZSU-23-4 Shilka
> 11 2K22M1 Tunguska
> Surface-To-Air Missile Systems (72, of which destroyed: 40, damaged: 2, abandoned: 8, captured: 22)​
> 6 9K33 Osa
> 13 9K35 Strela-10
> 3 9A310M1-2 TELAR (for Buk-M1-2)
> 5 9A39M1-2 TEL (for Buk-M1-2)
> 7 9A317 TELAR (for Buk-M2)
> 3 9A316 TEL (for Buk-M2)
> 4 Unknown Buk SAM system
> 8 9A330 Tor TLAR (for 9K330 Tor)
> 6 9A331 TLAR (for 9K331 Tor-M1)
> 5 9A331M TLAR (for 9K332 Tor-M2)
> 10 Pantsir-S1
> 2 TEL for S-300
> Radars (15, of which destroyed: 7, captured: 8)​
> 2 9S36 (for Buk-M2)
> 1 48Ya6-K1 Podlet-K1 low-altitude S-band surveillance radar
> 1 9S18М1(-2) (for Buk-M2)
> 1 9S18М1(-3) (for Buk-M3)
> 2 PPRU-1(M) ‘9S80(-1)’ ‘Sborka’ (for 9K35 Strela-10)
> 2 Fara ground surveillance radar
> 1 SNAR-10M1 battlefield surveillance radar
> 4 1L261 (for 1L260 Zoopark-1M counter-battery radar complex)
> 1 P-18T
> Jammers And Deception Systems (15, of which destroyed: 9, damaged: 1, captured: 5)​
> 5 R-330BMV Borisoglebsk-2B
> 2 R-330ZH Zhitel
> 1 1L262E Rtut-BM
> 1 Torn(-MDM)
> 1 Silok-01 counter-UAV system
> 1 1RL257 Krasukha-4 (command post)
> 1 Leer-2 electronic warfare system
> 1 RLK-MC-A (ROSC-1) counter-UAV system
> 1 Unknown EW system
> Aircraft (56, of which destroyed: 54, damaged: 2)​
> 22 Su-25 close air support aircraft
> 1 Su-24MR tactical reconnaissance aircraft
> 6 Su-24M/MR strike/tactical reconnaissance aircraft
> 11 Su-30SM multirole aircraft
> 1 Su-35S multirole aircraft
> 12 Su-34 strike aircraft
> 1 Su-34M strike aircraft
> 1 Unknown Su-30/Su-34/Su-35
> 1 An-26 transport aircraft
> Helicopters (48, of which destroyed: 47, captured: 1)​
> 12 Mi-8 transport helicopter
> 3 Mi-24P attack helicopter
> 5 Mi-35M attack helicopter
> 6 Mi-28 attack helicopter
> 16 Ka-52 ‘Alligator’ attack helicopter
> 6 Unknown helicopter
> Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (127, of which destroyed: 64, captured: 63)​
> 3 Forpost reconnaissance UAV
> 1 Orion UCAV
> 84 Orlan-10 reconnaissance UAV
> 3 Orlan-10 jamming UAV
> 7 ‘Orlan-20’ ”Kartograf” reconnaissance UAV
> 3 Orlan-30 reconnaissance UAV
> 13 Eleron-3 reconnaissance UAV
> 1 Eleron T28ME reconnaissance UAV
> 2 Takhion reconnaissance UAV
> 5 ZALA 421-16Е2 reconnaissance UAV
> 1 Merlin-VR reconnaissance UAV
> 1 Lastochka-M reconnaissance UAV
> 1 Supercam S450 reconnaissance UAV
> 2 Unknown UAV
> Naval Ships (11, of which destroyed: 8, damaged: 3)​
> 1 Project 1164 Slava class guided missile cruiser ‘Moskva’
> 5 Project 03160 Raptor class patrol boat
> 1 Project 02510 BK-16E high-speed assault boat
> 1 Project 1171 Tapir class landing ship ‘Saratov (BDK-65)’
> 1 Project 775 Ropucha class landing ship
> 1 Project 11770 Serna class landing craft
> 1 Project 22870 SB-739 Vasily Bekh rescue tug
> Logistics Trains (3, of which destroyed: 3)​
> 3 Fuel train
> Trucks, Vehicles and Jeeps (1557, of which destroyed: 1119, damaged: 28, abandoned: 53, captured: 357)​
> 1 GAZ-51
> 10 GAZ-66
> 2 KrAZ-255B
> 4 KrAZ-255B tanker
> 1 KrAZ-260 tanker
> 7 ZiL-131
> 1 ZiL-131 tanker
> 3 9T217 transloader (for 9K33 Osa)
> 4 9T244 transloader (for 9A330/1 Tor)
> 6 GAZ-3308
> 2 GAZ Sobol
> 2 Ural-375D
> 390 Ural-4320
> 91 Ural-4320 tanker
> 69 Ural-43206
> 19 Ural Federal
> 3 Ural-5323
> 7 Ural-63704-0010 Tornado-U
> 2 Ural-542301 tank transporter
> 1 MAZ TZ-500 tanker
> 11 KamAZ 4×4
> 404 KamAZ 6×6
> 71 KamAZ 6×6 tanker
> 12 KamAZ 8×8
> 24 KamAZ Avtozaks
> 11 KamAZ-5350 with armoured cab
> 10 KamAZ with MM-501 armoured cabin
> 7 KamAZ-6350 8×8 artillery tractor
> 3 Civilian KamAZ 6×6 converted for military use
> 11 UAZ-469 jeep
> 14 UAZ-452 van
> 2 UAZ Patriot jeep
> 3 UAZ-23632 pickup truck
> 2 UAZ-23632-148-64 armed pickup truck
> 1 Toyota Hilux pickup truck
> 5 UAZ-394511′ Esaul’
> 1 UAZ-515195′ Esaul’
> 289 (Unknown) truck
> 46 (Unknown) vehicle [/url]
> Full article can be found  here.


----------



## SeaKingTacco

By my count, that is enough captured gear to (conservatively) outfit 18 BTGs…


----------



## Kirkhill

> *An article about the fate of 1 GTA, 4 GTD and 2 GMRD.*​​A Hundred Wrecked Tanks In A Hundred Hours: Ukraine Guts Russia’s Best Tank Army​David Axe
> Forbes Staff
> I write about ships, planes, tanks, drones, missiles and satellites.
> Follow
> Sep 13, 2022,08:07pm EDT
> 10
> New! Click on the conversation bubble to join the conversation Got it!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A Russian T-80 burns following a Ukrainian drone strike.
> VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
> The Ukrainian army’s counteroffensive around the city of Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine starting on Sept. 6 destroyed half of the best tank division in the best tank army in the Russian armed forces.
> 
> 
> 
> A hundred wrecked or captured tanks in a hundred furious hours. That’s how much destruction the Ukrainians inflicted on the Russian 4th Guards Tank Division, part of the elite 1st Guards Tank Army, the Russian army’s best armor formation.
> 
> Now the 1st GTA is retreating north in order to preserve what remains of its front-line divisions. But the damage the tank army has suffered could have lasting implications—and not just for Russia’s 200-day-old wider war in Ukraine.
> 
> The 1st GTA “had been one of the most prestigious of Russia’s armies, allocated for the defense of Moscow, and intended to lead counterattacks in the case of a war with NATO,” the U.K. Defense Ministry explained. “It will likely take years for Russia to rebuild this capability.”
> 
> The 1st GTA has been in the fight since the start. When Russia widened its war in Ukraine on Feb. 24, it initially aimed to capture Kyiv and unseat the Ukrainian government. The 1st GTA led the assault on the capital city—and also led the retreat a month later after the Ukrainians won the battle for Kyiv.
> 
> The survivors of the 1st GTA—in particular, two regiments of the 4th GTD as well as two regiments of the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division—redeployed to the front around Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, just 25 miles from the Russian border in northeastern Ukraine.
> 
> 
> Five months later, the 1st GTA regiments _still_ hadn’t made good all their losses. The 1st GTA “suffered heavy casualties in the initial phase of the invasion and had not been fully reconstituted prior to the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv,” the U.K. Defense Ministry stated.
> And some 1st GTA elements, apparently including the 147th Artillery Regiment, later shifted to southern Ukraine in a desperate bid to blunt a Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast that kicked off on Aug. 30.
> Damaged, divided, demoralized, cut off from reliable logistics owing to Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian supply lines and lacking effective air support, the 4th GTD and 2nd GMRD were no match for the dozen Ukrainian brigades, including the powerful 4th Tank Brigade, that attacked north, east and south of Kharkiv last week.
> The Ukrainian 4th Tank Brigade’s T-72s and T-64s hit the Russian 4th GTD hard outside the city of Izium. By the time the Russian division retreated north toward the Russian border on or around Sept. 10, it had lost around 90 T-80U tanks that independent analysts can confirm.
> That’s half the tanks the division would possess at full strength. The Ukrainians captured many of the T-80Us intact—and could fix them up, paint them with the Ukrainian army’s cross insignia and send them back into battle.
> 
> The 4th GTD and 2nd GMRD—and by extension the whole 1st GTA—probably are unfit for further fighting. They could reconstitute, but with what and whom? The Kremlin’s urgent recruitment drive is faltering. And having written off more than a thousand tanks in Ukraine, the Russians might need years to bring depleted units back up to full strength.
> The Ukrainian army by contrast has more tanks _now _than it did _before _the current counteroffensives, as it has captured more Russian tanks than it has lost of its own.











						A Hundred Wrecked Tanks In A Hundred Hours: Ukraine Guts Russia’s Best Tank Army
					

The Ukrainian army’s counteroffensive around the city of Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine starting on Sept. 6 destroyed half of the best tank division in the best tank army in the Russian armed forces.




					www.forbes.com


----------



## TacticalTea

Humphrey Bogart said:


> What redirection?  We could have a discussion or we could keep spamming Twitter and Reddit feeds.  I've got Apps for that though.





Humphrey Bogart said:


> What happens over the Fall and Winter will be interesting. There is a lot more fighting to do yet.


Agreed on both.

I don't think there's too much value in arguing over whether or not Russia is a paper tiger, however, before we've even determined a common understanding of what constitutes a ''paper tiger''. It is a notion more poetic than pragmatic.

Sorry for reminding you all of your - perhaps dreadfully boring - philosophy classes from years/decades ago.



More seriously though, I'm reading reports of Kazakhstan suspending its CSTO membership in the wake of Russia's aggressive behaviour and the Treaty Organization's failure to respond to Armenia's call for assistance.

As such, let me use another paper-inspired analogy: Ukraine dared to dare against Russia, and the latter's military prestige finally crumbled like the house of cards that it was, for the whole world to see.

Does it still have a navy with little ability to project power globally or even over its sphere of influence? Sure. Does it still have armies of thugs at its disposal? Yep. And most importantly, does it still have potentially deployable nuclear capabilities? Oh yeah.

The latter remains of greatest concern, especially when the risk of political turmoil within Russia is heightened, which is typical of an authoritarian regime that loses a war. Nonetheless, any threat that Russia may represent will come as a function of two things: 1. Numbers. 2. Its ruthlessness and total disregard for human life, dignity, and international human rights law.


----------



## CBH99

OldSolduer said:


> Better yet the GoC dithers, kicks the cans down the road and the CAF withers and dies. The last left is NDHQ with a staff and a CDS at the rank of major (that commands no-one)


FTFY 😉


----------



## CBH99

Russia’s reasons for invading Ukraine ‘nonsense’, says ex-soldier
					

Pavel Filatyev, an ex-Russian soldier seeking asylum in France, opens up about his experiences on the front lines.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## Lumber

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I wouldn't say their logistics have been lacking.  An Army that is able to sustain a shell expenditure rate of 50,000 rds a day for months on end doesn't have bad logistics.


Who's complimenting Russia now


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

TacticalTea said:


> Agreed on both.
> 
> I don't think there's too much value in arguing over whether or not Russia is a paper tiger, however, before we've even determined a common understanding of what constitutes a ''paper tiger''. It is a notion more poetic than pragmatic.
> 
> Sorry for reminding you all of your - perhaps dreadfully boring - philosophy classes from years/decades ago.
> 
> 
> 
> More seriously though, I'm reading reports of Kazakhstan suspending its CSTO membership in the wake of Russia's aggressive behaviour and the Treaty Organization's failure to respond to Armenia's call for assistance.
> 
> As such, let me use another paper-inspired analogy: Ukraine dared to dare against Russia, and the latter's military prestige finally crumbled like the house of cards that it was, for the whole world to see.
> 
> Does it still have a navy with little ability to project power globally or even over its sphere of influence? Sure. Does it still have armies of thugs at its disposal? Yep. And most importantly, does it still have potentially deployable nuclear capabilities? Oh yeah.


I think the current conflict is going to serve as yet another timely reminder of "The limits of Military Power".  One that we ourselves should be well aware of given recent experiences in Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq, etc.

The Russians commenced operations in Ukraine at essentially parity with the UA in allocated ground forces.  Now they had a lot more firepower than the UA, a sizeable air force, extensive stockpiles of cruise missiles, overwhelming artillery superiority, etc.

IMO:

They attempted to implement a high-risk/high-reward strategy by doing a thunder run on Kyiv to depose the Ukrainian Government using Saboteurs, seizing key Government installations, arresting Officials, etc.  The Russian Ground Forces and Tank Armies that poured out of Crimea, Kursk and over the Donbass Border were basically there for a massive show of force.  

It very nearly worked and it did work in the South with portions of the UA collapsing which is how Mariupol was surrounded, Kherson + Melitopol were seized, etc.

We all know what happened next though, the UA didn't collapse in Kyiv, sabotage groups were routed, the VDV found themselves in a slugfest North of Kyiv. 

The Tank Armies that had rapidly advanced nearly 600km in some cases found themselves in enemy territory with partisans and enemy forces in between them and their supply.  Lines of Communication were severed and like Custer at Little Big Horn, the Cavalry ended up in a bad way, out numbered and with enemy all around.

That was a significant operational victory for the Ukrainians, the recent Kharkiv counter-offensive was also a significant operational victory for the Ukrainians.  

It remains to be seen what comes next.  The fall and winter campaigns will most certainly provide more surprises.

I think the real paper tiger in all of this is the EU.  The EU has shown that it is profoundly weak and is now, for all intents and purposes, completely vassalized by the Americans.  

While the Russians were invading Ukraine, they were also running the French out of Africa, quite successfully might I add.  

The real danger in all of this is Russia being driven into the Chinese sphere of influence, which at this point, appears an absolute certainty.


TacticalTea said:


> The latter remains of greatest concern, especially when the risk of political turmoil within Russia is heightened, which is typical of an authoritarian regime that loses a war. Nonetheless, any threat that Russia may represent will come as a function of two things: 1. Numbers. 2. Its ruthlessness and total disregard for human life, dignity, and international human rights law.


I don't see Putin being deposed, he has a strangehold and any talk of deposing Putin is just wishful thinking.  It's the latest talking point that replaced "he must have a terminal illness".  

The biggest danger I see is Russia being vassalized by China.  That's one of the worst possible outcomes IMO.


----------



## Navy_Pete

Lumber said:


> I think it's a good thing we've donated all of this stuff and gotten it off our shelves. We should donate more. Following this conflict, the west is going to need to spend years studying and dissecting the lessons learned from the very first large scale conflict between two militaries armed with full modern weapons. Once we learn what works and what doesn't, we can replace our empty shelves with the best of what we actually need.


I think one good lessons learned is training/competency makes a significant difference; the Ukranians seem to do a much better job with seized Russian equipment then the Russians, but not really a surprise as they seem to be dropping largely untrained troops in, or putting sailors and other non-infanteers in infantry roles (with no relevant training). Maybe this is a good case for modern equipment =/= victory on it's own.

It's a good thing we don't cut equipment procurement costs by not getting training or manuals!


----------



## OldSolduer

FJAG said:


> Ha! You optimist you. If all the CAF is down to is the CDS then she'll still have the rank of general.
> 
> 🍻


Did you just assume the gender? 🤣


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> Izyum Falls Sept 11
> Ukrainian Government starts handing out pension checks Sept 13
> President of Ukraine visits Sept 14
> 1st train from Izyum to Kupyansk runs Sept 14
> 
> How to win wars.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xdzqwu
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570062323376603136
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xe7crq


They need to add to this - clean, readily available fresh water now and a steady, reliable supply of heating in the next 2 months. Keep all of that going, along with adding school for the kids and get people 'working' in clearing up the destruction and rebuilding and they will continue to have loyal, optimist, happy citizens.
This is something that Canada can actually start applying and making an impact  their on the ground- doling out supplies and equipment to allow this to occur.


----------



## CBH99

Ukraine war: Houses flooded after missiles hit major dam
					

Ukraine says the attack is revenge after it retook occupied territory from Russia in the east.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Czech_pivo said:


> They need to add to this - clean, readily available fresh water now and a steady, reliable supply of heating in the next 2 months. Keep all of that going, along with adding school for the kids and get people 'working' in clearing up the destruction and rebuilding and they will continue to have loyal, optimist, happy citizens.
> This is something that Canada can actually start applying and making an impact  their on the ground- doling out supplies and equipment to allow this to occur.



Really interesting comment that.

The Russian Army's Easterners have become notorious for looting washing machines and toilets.  The prerequisite for both of those is a supply of "clean, readily available fresh water".  Do the Easterners have that at home?

A Ukrainian refugee woman who had been forcibly evacuated to Moscow and put up in a Soviet era apartment complained that there was only one toilet per floor (like Glasgow tenements in the 1890s) and one washing machine for 15 or so families (again, similar in concept to accommodations in early modern Scotland with a communal wash house where the women did the laundry rather than heading down to the river).

Clean water.  That is something that Canada could contribute.  Not in the form of the water itself but, as you point out, the technology to make it.

That requires energy though.  Fortunately Eurasia is not short of energy.  If the politicians will get out of the way and stop declaring viable sources "beyond use".


----------



## TacticalTea

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I think the current conflict is going to serve as yet another timely reminder of "The limits of Military Power".  One that we ourselves should be well aware of given recent experiences in Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq, etc.



I very much share this sentiment. An especially poignant reminder for Canada.



Humphrey Bogart said:


> It very nearly worked and it did work in the South with portions of the UA collapsing which is how Mariupol was surrounded, *Kherson + Melitopol* were seized, etc.


I'm not sure that was a military achievement as much as it was a political / intelligence one. To my knowledge, there were no significant battles (not to say there weren't any) and victory was achieved in the only manner a paper tiger / Canada goose can achieve it. Intimidation, coupled with advance intelligence work that prepared timely defections.

I would give greater credit to the Russian Ground Forces for the progress they made in the northern DLPR front, culminating along the Kupiansk/Lyman axis.


Humphrey Bogart said:


> We all know what happened next though, the UA didn't collapse in Kyiv, sabotage groups were routed, the VDV found themselves in a slugfest North of Kyiv.
> 
> The Tank Armies that had rapidly advanced nearly 600km in some cases found themselves in enemy territory with partisans and enemy forces in between them and their supply.  Lines of Communication were severed and like Custer at Little Big Horn, the Cavalry ended up in a bad way, out numbered and with enemy all around.
> 
> That was a significant operational victory for the Ukrainians, the recent Kharkiv counter-offensive was also a significant operational victory for the Ukrainians.
> 
> It remains to be seen what comes next.  The fall and winter campaigns will most certainly provide more surprises.


For sure. As much as victories are great to see, I remain perpetually worried about what the next surprise might be.


Humphrey Bogart said:


> I think the real paper tiger in all of this is the EU.  The EU has shown that it is profoundly weak and is now, for all intents and purposes, completely vassalized by the Americans.


Not sure I follow. If that were the case, wouldn't the big three (ITA/GER/FRA) follow the Anglosphere's example in terms of rhetoric and support to Ukraine? 


Humphrey Bogart said:


> I don't see Putin being deposed, he has a strangehold and any talk of deposing Putin is just wishful thinking.  It's the latest talking point that replaced "he must have a terminal illness".
> 
> The biggest danger I see is Russia being vassalized by China.  That's one of the worst possible outcomes IMO.


I'm not counting on that either, and I've made my stance on accounts of politicians' illnesses known: rubbish and inconsequential till they drop dead. As I said, he still has his armies of thugs (+ gas revenue) to sustain the regime, and we are still seeing potential opponents fall out of windows at an alarming rate, with no apparent consequences to him.

Your last point about China is one of the elements I had in mind as I wrote about the political turmoil after a lost war; it is a done deal that China will seek and exploit every opportunity to enhance its leverage over others. This could go a million ways, but we might find ourselves on Russia's side sooner than we'd imagined.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Humphrey Bogart said:


> What redirection?  We could have a discussion or we could keep spamming Twitter and Reddit feeds.  I've got Apps for that though.
> 
> @Furniture
> 
> I've been saying for months now the energy war would have a massive impact.  That's why Scholz was on the phone with Putin for 1 1/2 hours today.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Putin does not believe Ukraine war a ‘mistake’: German leader
> 
> 
> German leader says no indication Putin has changed stance on Ukraine as UN chief says prospects for peace are ‘minimal’.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.aljazeera.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> We have reason to be optimistic.  Ukraine hit a weak part of the front and finally showed that they could manage an operation above the Battalion level.  They dealt mostly with DPR Militia though and not a whole lot of actual Russian Army.
> 
> What happens over the Fall and Winter will be interesting. There is a lot more fighting to do yet.


True statements - but for every DPR or LPR that they can kill, wound, capture or send scurrying home, that spot has to be filled with a Russian Army member - do that enough times and Russian won't have anywhere near enough hunks of meat to fill those gaps.  
Its exactly what the Russian's did at Stalingrad - wipe out the Rumanians and the Italians and there's just not enough Germans left to fill in the gaps.....


----------



## Lumber

Starting to see stories crop up about Georgia making a move on South Ossetia. Excited to see whether this is real, or just more Uk IO.


----------



## FJAG

Kirkhill said:


> The Russian Army's Easterners have become notorious for looting washing machines and toilets.


This makes me laugh because at the end of the Second World War, while German and Polish factories were being systematically dismantled and shipped east by the Red Army, the soldiers were ripping toilets and sinks and fixtures and piping and wiring out of houses and taking them back as well. Looting appears to be deeply ingrained in generation after generation of Russians.

🍻


----------



## KevinB

FJAG said:


> This makes me laugh because at the end of the Second World War, while German and Polish factories were being systematically dismantled and shipped east by the Red Army, the soldiers were ripping toilets and sinks and fixtures and piping and wiring out of houses and taking them back as well. Looting appears to be deeply ingrained in generation after generation of Russians.
> 
> 🍻


To the victor goes the spoils…
   They forgot one needs to win first on this one.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

FJAG said:


> This makes me laugh because at the end of the Second World War, while German and Polish factories were being systematically dismantled and shipped east by the Red Army, the soldiers were ripping toilets and sinks and fixtures and piping and wiring out of houses and taking them back as well. Looting appears to be deeply ingrained in generation after generation of Russians.
> 
> 🍻


I've also read that Easterners in Russia see their kids as commodities which is why they have no problem sending their kids off to the Russian Army.  It's also better if they don't come back because the State gives them handsome payout at that point.


----------



## Lumber

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I've also read that Easterners in Russia see their kids as commodities which is why they have no problem sending their kids off to the Russian Army.  It's also better if they don't come back because the State gives them handsome payout at that point.


Savage.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

I have been watching the amount of bridging equipment used and destroyed in this conflict, I suspect Canada would use up all it's stock in a week.


----------



## YZT580

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I've also read that Easterners in Russia see their kids as commodities which is why they have no problem sending their kids off to the Russian Army.  It's also better if they don't come back because the State gives them handsome payout at that point.


I would hardly classify a brand new Lada as a handsome payout


----------



## Blackadder1916

YZT580 said:


> I would hardly classify a brand new Lada as a handsome payout



Many years ago (mid 1980s), a CAF LCol was expelled from the Soviet Union because they claimed he had been travelling outside the region where he was permitted to be in as an attaché.  Among the things that he brought back was the Lada that he had purchased while over there, so they do sometimes serve a useful purpose.  Value, of course, depends on the circumstances.


----------



## Kirkhill

Kharkiv Trophies - captured intact apparently

Looks like 4 BTG equivalents to me - Interesting that the BMPs were abandoned along with the trucks and guns but the BTRs and armoured utilities seem to have been popular.  Did they move out of Dodge faster?




__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xf2znd


----------



## daftandbarmy

YZT580 said:


> I would hardly classify a brand new Lada as a handsome payout



Watch the video, it might change your mind 









						Russia State TV Promotes Benefits of Losing Son in War: 'A Nice New Car'
					

The state television report said that the parents of a deceased Russian soldier bought the car using money they were allotted for his death.




					www.newsweek.com


----------



## MilEME09

FJAG said:


> Ha! You optimist you. If all the CAF is down to is the CDS then she'll still have the rank of general.
> 
> 🍻


A general commanding a platoon? Must be a reservist


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> A general commanding a platoon? Must be a reservist



Whoa...


----------



## MilEME09

Images of war crimes investigators at the mass grave discovered in Izyum.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570512151009456129


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

daftandbarmy said:


> Watch the video, it might change your mind
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia State TV Promotes Benefits of Losing Son in War: 'A Nice New Car'
> 
> 
> The state television report said that the parents of a deceased Russian soldier bought the car using money they were allotted for his death.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.newsweek.com


I wasn't kidding, this is literally a thing.


----------



## FJAG

MilEME09 said:


> A general commanding a platoon? Must be a reservist


Who said anything about there being a platoon to command?

😁


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

FJAG said:


> Who said anything about there being a platoon to command?
> 
> 😁


If it's Canadian, it will be one Corporal in a trench coat 😉


----------



## dapaterson

Mister-made-of-money, thinking the CAF can afford a trenchcoat.


----------



## Maxman1

Humphrey Bogart said:


> If it's Canadian, it will be one Corporal in a trench coat 😉


----------



## Remius

dapaterson said:


> Mister-made-of-money, thinking the CAF can afford a trenchcoat.


Takes all your points at Logstik but yes.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Blackadder1916 said:


> Many years ago (mid 1980s), a CAF LCol was expelled from the Soviet Union because they claimed he had been travelling outside the region where he was permitted to be in as an attaché.  Among the things that he brought back was the Lada that he had purchased while over there, so they do sometimes serve a useful purpose.  Value, of course, depends on the circumstances.


Didn’t someone one in a former Liberal government decide that Lada’s were good enough to be assembled in Cape Breton and sold to us Canadians…..


----------



## JLB50

Czech_pivo said:


> Didn’t someone one in a former Liberal government decide that Lada’s were good enough to be assembled in Cape Breton and sold to us Canadians…..


That was decades ago when the Soviets thought everyone would want their car.  Come to think of it, didn’t Khrushchev pound his shoe on the U.N. podium saying, “We will carry you”? 😗


----------



## Blackadder1916

Czech_pivo said:


> Didn’t someone one in a former Liberal government decide that Lada’s were good enough to be assembled in Cape Breton and sold to us Canadians…..



I don't know if such a proposal had any support/encouragement from the Canadian government (regardless of the party in power), but Lada Cars of Canada Inc did float the idea in the 1980s.









						Lada Canada plans to build Canadian assembly plant
					

Lada Cars of Canada Inc., a Canadian-owned company which imports cars from the USSR, is negotiating with the Soviet Union to build an Canadian assembly plant...




					www.upi.com
				




It wasn't that crazy an idea.  While the sales of Ladas in Canada were never stupendous, they did have a small following.  They actually were a sturdier bodied Fiat (an Italian Fiat would rust if you spit on it) with some mechanical differences suited to the Soviet Union's poor roads.  A friend (he was a Sup Tech who worked with my then wife) owned a Lada Niva (4 wheel drive SUV) in the early 1980s; he loved it.  It was cheap and drove reasonably well (considering what one paid for it).  At one time I considered getting one myself.


----------



## Colin Parkinson




----------



## Lumber

Lumber said:


> Starting to see stories crop up about Georgia making a move on South Ossetia. Excited to see whether this is real, or just more Uk IO.


It would appear that the stories I was seeing, were in fact, disinformation. Georgia apparently has no interest in "opening up a second front", and seems resigned to their current political/territorial situations.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Blackadder1916 said:


> I don't know if such a proposal had any support/encouragement from the Canadian government (regardless of the party in power), but Lada Cars of Canada Inc did float the idea in the 1980s.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Lada Canada plans to build Canadian assembly plant
> 
> 
> Lada Cars of Canada Inc., a Canadian-owned company which imports cars from the USSR, is negotiating with the Soviet Union to build an Canadian assembly plant...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.upi.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It wasn't that crazy an idea.  While the sales of Ladas in Canada were never stupendous, they did have a small following.  They actually were a sturdier bodied Fiat (an Italian Fiat would rust if you spit on it) with some mechanical differences suited to the Soviet Union's poor roads.  A friend (he was a Sup Tech who worked with my then wife) owned a Lada Niva (4 wheel drive SUV) in the early 1980s; he loved it.  It was cheap and drove reasonably well (considering what one paid for it).  At one time I considered getting one myself.


And they fell apart in droves thanks to us salting our roads.  The quality of them was absolute crap -


----------



## lenaitch

Czech_pivo said:


> And they fell apart in droves thanks to us salting our roads.  The quality of them was absolute crap -


To be fair, so did a lot of other imports back then.  I owned two late 70s-early 80s Toyotas than were mechanically solid but dissolved before my eyes.


----------



## Kirkhill

lenaitch said:


> To be fair, so did a lot of other imports back then.  I owned two late 70s-early 80s Toyotas than were mechanically solid but dissolved before my eyes.


Datsun, anybody?

Their problem was so bad they dissolved the brand and relaunched as Nissan.


----------



## Kirkhill

You know.  That might be the ultimate expression of wasteful wealth.

Once upon a time salt was considered so valuable that it was the basis for paying soldiers. 
Now, here in Canada, we have so much we salt our roads with it.  And then complain we are destroying our cars.
Next best thing to paving them with gold?

And then we complain we are destroying our cars.
Maybe we should get cars built for 9 months of winter and 3 months of hard sledding rather than wishing we were living in California so we could drive Californian cars all year round.

Wow.  Are we still talking about Ukraine?  

Sorry.


----------



## KevinB

Lumber said:


> It would appear that the stories I was seeing, were in fact, disinformation. Georgia apparently has no interest in "opening up a second front", and seems resigned to their current political/territorial situations.


I suspect Georgia has every interest in doing so, but is being encouraged not to, less the Kremlin get exceptionally excited…


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> I suspect Georgia has every interest in doing so, but is being encouraged not to, less the Kremlin get exceptionally excited…



Kremlin nightmare?

The day Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Georgia meet in Volgograd.


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> Kremlin nightmare?
> 
> The day Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Georgia meet in Volgograd.


While a nice thought, it would be significantly overshadowed by RuAF nuclear release.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> While a nice thought, it would be significantly overshadowed by RuAF nuclear release.



Agreed - to this extent - maybe not today but all metal rusts.  Eventually.


----------



## Good2Golf

lenaitch said:


> To be fair, so did a lot of other imports back then.  I owned two late 70s-early 80s Toyotas than were mechanically solid but dissolved before my eyes.


Hyundai Ponys and Excels in the mid/late-80s anyone? 😉  I think many/most makers get the chemical blasting of much of N.A. now, plus the use of other measures and compounds than straight vomiting of rock salt into the roads has helped.


----------



## YZT580

Kirkhill said:


> Datsun, anybody?
> 
> Their problem was so bad they dissolved the brand and relaunched as Nissan.


the metal on them was so thin that you needed an optional trunk liner to prevent it from showing dents on the outside from things sliding around inside.


----------



## FJAG

Kirkhill said:


> Datsun, anybody?
> 
> Their problem was so bad they dissolved the brand and relaunched as Nissan.


A buddy in Pet had one in 73. Unbelievable the way the rust chewed up every metal seam on the car.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Kirkhill said:


> You know.  That might be the ultimate expression of wasteful wealth.
> 
> Once upon a time salt was considered so valuable that it was the basis for paying soldiers.
> Now, here in Canada, we have so much we salt our roads with it.  And then complain we are destroying our cars.
> Next best thing to paving them with gold?
> 
> And then we complain we are destroying our cars.
> Maybe we should get cars built for 9 months of winter and 3 months of hard sledding rather than wishing we were living in California so we could drive Californian cars all year round.
> 
> Wow.  Are we still talking about Ukraine?
> 
> Sorry.


The California market and regs dictated the entire sale drives of all imports for North America.


----------



## Spencer100

Czech_pivo said:


> Didn’t someone one in a former Liberal government decide that Lada’s were good enough to be assembled in Cape Breton and sold to us Canadians…..


Volvo's were final assembled in Halifax for years.  They were even included the first AutoPack trade agreements.    GM, Ford, Chrysler, American Motors and Volvo.


----------



## MilEME09

Can any old m109 gunners confirm if this works.....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570785558099800065


----------



## Spencer100

Good2Golf said:


> Hyundai Ponys and Excels in the mid/late-80s anyone? 😉  I think many/most makers get the chemical blasting of much of N.A. now, plus the use of other measures and compounds than straight vomiting of rock salt into the roads has helped.


The secret was E-Coating.


----------



## Spencer100

MilEME09 said:


> Can any old m109 gunners confirm if this works.....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570785558099800065


?  M109 can kill 440 people.....I would say yes.


----------



## Halifax Tar

MilEME09 said:


> Can any old m109 gunners confirm if this works.....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570785558099800065



lol Soldiers will be soldiers.  Love it.


----------



## Spencer100

Wait a sec.....I am seeing different....threads


----------



## MilEME09

Spencer100 said:


> Wait a sec.....I am seeing different....threads


I accidentally put the wrong thread in at first, had to go back and edit


----------



## FJAG

Halifax Tar said:


> lol Soldiers will be soldiers.  Love it.


M109 gunners. What can I say?

😁


----------



## Kat Stevens

Good2Golf said:


> Hyundai Ponys and Excels in the mid/late-80s anyone? 😉  I think many/most makers get the chemical blasting of much of N.A. now, plus the use of other measures and compounds than straight vomiting of rock salt into the roads has helped.


<K_Car has entered the chat>


----------



## Kirkhill

Kat Stevens said:


> <K_Car has entered the chat>


And if I had a million dollars (If I had a million dollars)
Well I'd buy you a K-Car
A nice reliant automobile


----------



## Spencer100

Kat Stevens said:


> <K_Car has entered the chat>


If you would like to go down Automotive and metallurgic history with me.  

First Japanese of the 70's and 80's did rust at a very much higher rate than the domestics.  The reason was the much higher percentage of recycled steel in the cars from Japan.  Then something happened.  One they knew this and worked on a fix, painting etc.  But most importantly Ronald Reagan.  What you say!?  After the "chicken tax" etc. (you can google that one)....the US industry was losing share at increasing rate.  A "deal" made by the Japanese car makers and MITI to limit exports.  This did two things forced the Japanese automakers move up market (lexus, Infinity etc) and make them open plants in North America (FTA enters the room)  So with higher priced cars the buyers would not except rusting cars and also North American standards of steel could be used.  Add in the coating technology and here we are cars that don't rust out as fast.  remember in the 70's every 3 year old car had rust....now it is very rare.

The Koreans learned the same lessons. 

Lada not so much


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukrainian comparison of British and Russian camo with NVGs.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xfpdj0


----------



## mariomike

Just a reminder our neighbourhood Ukrainian Festival kicks off today in Bloor West Village.

Hope to see you there!

*NORTH AMERICA'S LARGEST UKRAINIAN FESTIVAL *​*CELEBRATING 26 YEARS OF AMAZING UKRAINIAN CULTURE, JOIN US SEPTEMBER 16 - 18, 2022*​*








						Toronto Ukrainian Festival
					

Bloor West Village Toronto Ukrainian Festival



					www.ukrainianfestival.com
				



*


----------



## MilEME09

Caution for the images below, trigger warning.

Russian forces are being accused of shooting their own wounded instead of retreating or letting them be captured.



Spoiler: Tweet





__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570789189008101377




And in other news central Asia is heating up


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570846486912729091


----------



## YZT580

MilEME09 said:


> Caution for the images below, trigger warning.
> 
> Russian forces are being accused of shooting their own wounded instead of retreating or letting them be captured.
> 
> 
> 
> Spoiler: Tweet
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570789189008101377
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And in other news central Asia is heating up
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570846486912729091


I do hope that this proves to be false or a one off.


----------



## Good2Golf

Not sure how long Russians will quietly accept such behaviour in the homeland, but looks like a Wgnerite exploring the envelope of acceptable back-home conduct — aka. play stupid games, win special prizes:


----------



## McG

Putin’s Next Move in Ukraine
					

Mobilize, retreat, or something in-between?




					www.foreignaffairs.com


----------



## Kat Stevens

Good2Golf said:


> Not sure how long Russians will quietly accept such behaviour in the homeland, but looks like a Wgnerite exploring the envelope of acceptable back-home conduct — aka. play stupid games, win special prizes:


He seems nice.


----------



## Maxman1

This is interesting.

Exclusive: As war began, Putin rejected a Ukraine peace deal recommended by aide


----------



## Maxman1

Good2Golf said:


> Hyundai Ponys and Excels in the mid/late-80s anyone? 😉  I think many/most makers get the chemical blasting of much of N.A. now, plus the use of other measures and compounds than straight vomiting of rock salt into the roads has helped.



My parents had a Pony when they lived in Dartmouth in the 80s. It rusted so bad, it spread to the back of the license plate.

They also had the fog lights stolen twice. The first time, the bolts were cut off, so they started parking it near my uncle's house. The thieves unbolted them that time.


----------



## RangerRay

Good2Golf said:


> Hyundai Ponys and Excels in the mid/late-80s anyone? 😉  I think many/most makers get the chemical blasting of much of N.A. now, plus the use of other measures and compounds than straight vomiting of rock salt into the roads has helped.


I had a 1990 Hyundai Excel back in the mid 90’s. Got a sweet deal and it was the best car I ever owned. Don’t see many still on the road anymore!


----------



## Colin Parkinson




----------



## dapaterson

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570891498249670656


----------



## SeaKingTacco

dapaterson said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570891498249670656


Seems like only the neighbourly thing to do…


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571133369542643718


----------



## Czech_pivo

dapaterson said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1570891498249670656


It would be interesting to know the dates when that ammo was produced and where. It could answer a number of questions.


----------



## CBH99

Good2Golf said:


> Not sure how long Russians will quietly accept such behaviour in the homeland, but looks like a Wgnerite exploring the envelope of acceptable back-home conduct — aka. play stupid games, win special prizes:


I've seen a few videos of Russian security forces dealing with aggressive drunks back home, and I'm always surprised at how patient & calm they are...until they aren't.


----------



## brihard

CBH99 said:


> I've seen a few videos of Russian security forces dealing with aggressive drunks back home, and I'm always surprised at how patient & calm they are...until they aren't.


Stupid drunks being stupid is utterly routine for any police anywhere. Generally you hope you can talk them into chilling out, simply because it’s easier and less likely to result in a fight and paperwork. Fights will happen regularly anyway, few have any interest in chasing or provoking yet another one. Best case, you talk the drunk guy down and they either frig off or they get in your car with minimal fuss.


----------



## CBH99

brihard said:


> Stupid drunks being stupid is utterly routine for any police anywhere. Generally you hope you can talk them into chilling out, simply because it’s easier and less likely to result in a fight and paperwork. Fights will happen regularly anyway, few have any interest in chasing or provoking yet another one. Best case, you talk the drunk guy down and they either frig off or they get in your car with minimal fuss.


Oh absolutely.  Sorry, my post was literally the very first thing I did today, and I very clear.  

Just in regards to the various YouTube videos… given Russia’s reputation for being a rough & tough place to grow up and be from, and the reputation/perception of Russians around the world… it’s a stark contrast from what I expected.  

Thinking of other videos also… I’m surprised at how far someone being disorderly can push their luck.  

Things that would have someone taken down hard here, and potentially charged (striking, kicking a police officer, pushing against an officer with the forehead down, etc etc)…

…the Russian officers (just in the clips I’ve seen) tend to allow that person to push their luck a bit further than we would. 

Until, ofcourse, the luck runs out.


----------



## Weinie

CBH99 said:


> Oh absolutely.  Sorry, my post was literally the very first thing I did today, and I very clear.
> 
> Just in regards to the various YouTube videos… given Russia’s reputation for being a rough & tough place to grow up and be from, and the reputation/perception of Russians around the world… it’s a stark contrast from what I expected.
> 
> Thinking of other videos also… I’m surprised at how far someone being disorderly can push their luck.
> 
> Things that would have someone taken down hard here, and potentially charged (striking, kicking a police officer, pushing against an officer with the forehead down, etc etc)…
> 
> *…the Russian officers (just in the clips I’ve seen) tend to allow that person to push their luck a bit further than we would.*
> 
> Until, ofcourse, the luck runs out.


And I suspect that Russian police (and populace) are far more accustomed to this sort of behavior than we in the West are, so somewhat more accommodating/patient/resigned.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Weinie said:


> And I suspect that Russian police (and populace) are far more accustomed to this sort of behavior than we in the West are, so somewhat more accommodating/patient/resigned.


Their definition of "normal behaviour" is likley different than ours.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Interesting, a report that is claimed to be a translation of the Moskva condition prior to her sinking. Seems much of her equipment was not working. 








						Moskva Main.Rep - Translated
					






					docs.google.com
				




Also a video on the report

Gets into the details at 13:00


----------



## AmmoTech90

Czech_pivo said:


> It would be interesting to know the dates when that ammo was produced and where. It could answer a number of questions.


Looks like the rocket warheads were made in the USSR, factory 254, in 70-something


----------



## MilEME09

Colin Parkinson said:


> Interesting, a report that is claimed to be a translation of the Moskva condition prior to her sinking. Seems much of her equipment was not working.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Moskva Main.Rep - Translated
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> docs.google.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Also a video on the report
> 
> Gets into the details at 13:00


Some OSINT accounts speculated her air search radar was pointed away from the missile impact sites, and none of her AD was active.


----------



## CBH99

MilEME09 said:


> Some OSINT accounts speculated her air search radar was pointed away from the missile impact sites, and none of her AD was active.


You’d think, given the nature of the conflict and who they were in conflict with, making sure your AD is active & in good working order would be the priority…

It blows me away how it wasn’t sure one or two units that were incompetent.  It was literally the entire Russian military.  

(Perhaps with exception to the Air Force - not flying over a landscape littered with hundreds of MANPADS, as well as more robust AD systems, was probably the most competent thing they could have done.  

Although their targets seemed to be more “Whatever I feel like shooting at…” rather than legitimate military targets after the first few days.)


----------



## Kirkhill

CBH99 said:


> You’d think, given the nature of the conflict and who they were in conflict with, making sure your AD is active & in good working order would be the priority…
> 
> It blows me away how it wasn’t sure one or two units that were incompetent.  It was literally the entire Russian military.
> 
> (Perhaps with exception to the Air Force - not flying over a landscape littered with hundreds of MANPADS, as well as more robust AD systems, was probably the most competent thing they could have done.
> 
> Although their targets seemed to be more “Whatever I feel like shooting at…” rather than legitimate military targets after the first few days.)



If the missiles captured by the Ukrainian army are 1970s and the Moskva was laid down in 1976 for launch in 1979 what is the betting that their systems depended on Czech vacuum tubes that are no longer being produced?

IIRC we were buying Czech vacuum tubes for our Navy (the Tribals) in the same era.  It was a momentary amusing scandal on CBC back in the day.


----------



## CBH99

Oh wow.  Learn something new every day 😅  One heck if a flagship…

If only the Chinese could be equally as incompetent, whenever that kicks off.  Here’s to praying 🙏🏻


----------



## rmc_wannabe

The concept of Mission Command must be more prevalent in the Russian Air Force than within its Ground forces. Might have to do with how much more expensive it is to lose an aircraft vice a BTG of people. 

If my experience working with the Romanian and Polish Armed Forces in 2015 taught me anything, it's that Soviet doctrine placed zero value on human life/welfare in combat operations. We did a good job breaking them of this way of thinking, as well as with the Ukrainians, but I guess old habits die hard (or completely) for the Russians.


----------



## Lumber

MilEME09 said:


> Some OSINT accounts speculated her air search radar was pointed away from the missile impact sites, and none of her AD was active.


When we deploy, we _know _the range of the enemy missiles we are going to face.

Since the Neptune missiles are essentially just derivates of the Russian SS-N-25, you'd think the Russians would know when they were potentially within range of the Uk batteries, and would therefore be at a higher readiness state.

However, after everything I've read/heard/seen, I wouldn't be surprised if some in the Russian military or intelligence believed that either the Uk's didn't have any functioning Neptunes, or that for some other reason they just we'rent a threat (something stupid like "the Uk's have them but don't know how to use them effectively, you're fine, ignore that threat".


----------



## MilEME09

Lumber said:


> When we deploy, we _know _the range of the enemy missiles we are going to face.
> 
> Since the Neptune missiles are essentially just derivates of the Russian SS-N-25, you'd think the Russians would know when they were potentially within range of the Uk batteries, and would therefore be at a higher readiness state.
> 
> However, after everything I've read/heard/seen, I wouldn't be surprised if some in the Russian military or intelligence believed that either the Uk's didn't have any functioning Neptunes, or that for some other reason they just we'rent a threat (something stupid like "the Uk's have them but don't know how to use them effectively, you're fine, ignore that threat".


Also possible that they made the assumption you just did of being similar to the SS-N-25, but ended up having greater range and capabilities


----------



## Navy_Pete

Kirkhill said:


> IIRC we were buying Czech vacuum tubes for our Navy (the Tribals) in the same era.  It was a momentary amusing scandal on CBC back in the day.



There were a few parts needed for the end of life that came from somewhere in Eastern Europe that still had the technology to run up those ancient circuit boards in the mid 00s, fortunately didn't make the news.


----------



## RedFive

brihard said:


> Stupid drunks being stupid is utterly routine for any police anywhere. Generally you hope you can talk them into chilling out, simply because it’s easier and less likely to result in a fight and paperwork. Fights will happen regularly anyway, few have any interest in chasing or provoking yet another one. Best case, you talk the drunk guy down and they either frig off or they get in your car with minimal fuss.


Last tilt I got in to with a drunk who couldn't take a hint cost me a broken hand, so I'll strongly agree with the path of least resistance assessment you've made..


----------



## CBH99

RedFive said:


> Last tilt I got in to with a drunk who couldn't take a hint cost me a broken hand, so I'll strongly agree with the path of least resistance assessment you've made..


I do security at a local nightclub, which cab hold approximately 1400 people at its max. capacity.

We usually have around 700 - 800 in there on an average Saturday night, slightly fewer on Fridays.  The age range is young, from around 18 to around 23 for the most part. (Although the crowd can be quite diverse some nights.)

Needless to say, fighting drunks has become somewhat of an unintentional hobby... amen on the least resistance part, I'm getting too old for this 👴

(Thankfully they are actually really good kids for the most part, to be honest.  But still, there's always a bad apple eventually...)


<Back to the greatest international underdog story of the century, thus far!>


----------



## Kirkhill

Interesting use of tanks by the Ukrainians -

Russians relocating from Izium in the direction of Sloviansk.
Ukrainian tank battalion astride the route
Indirect predictive fire led by spotters with Quadcopters - crews, like arty, never see their targets
9 kills claimed

Sounds more like an anti-tank battery than a tank battalion.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xiclnu


----------



## Kirkhill

Estonian politician on Russian Propaganda TV Show.  He has an opinion.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xijbs3

Just found out that he is a Social Democrat.  Generally found on the left of the spectrum.


----------



## Kirkhill

One more for the day

Beer for life!


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xi3w6j


----------



## MilEME09

More Canadian aid in action 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571943884175052801


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Trench life, but when it rains.....








						Мир Михаила Онуфриенко
					

🇺🇦🤡Поможем Даше-следопыту украинскому вояке понять, что таким способом у него не получится вычерпать всю воду из окопа  https://t.me/Ukr_G_M/8827  ИЗНАНКА ★ ВКонтакте ★ Прислать новость




					t.me


----------



## daftandbarmy

Colin Parkinson said:


> Trench life, but when it rains.....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Мир Михаила Онуфриенко
> 
> 
> 🇺🇦🤡Поможем Даше-следопыту украинскому вояке понять, что таким способом у него не получится вычерпать всю воду из окопа  https://t.me/Ukr_G_M/8827  ИЗНАНКА ★ ВКонтакте ★ Прислать новость
> 
> 
> 
> 
> t.me



That is the definition of misery.


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> More Canadian aid in action
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571943884175052801


They looked reasonably switched on. Nice to see a combat video where someone actually takes a sight pictured and fires controlled shots on repetition.


----------



## KevinB

brihard said:


> They looked reasonably switched on. Nice to see a combat video where someone actually takes a sight pictured and fires controlled shots on repetition.


But thumbs down for standing in the middle of the road with no attempt to use any sort of cover...


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Kirkhill said:


> Interesting use of tanks by the Ukrainians -
> 
> Russians relocating from Izium in the direction of Sloviansk.
> Ukrainian tank battalion astride the route
> Indirect predictive fire led by spotters with Quadcopters - crews, like arty, never see their targets
> 9 kills claimed
> 
> Sounds more like an anti-tank battery than a tank battalion.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xiclnu


As I recall a Sherman Firefly took out 5-6 tigers while flanking a road. Still tank killing tank.


----------



## Kirkhill

Colin Parkinson said:


> As I recall a Sherman Firefly took out 5-6 tigers while flanking a road. Still tank killing tank.


So when is a tank a tank and when is it an armoured self propelled anti tank gun?


----------



## CBH99

Tomayto Tomahto?


----------



## KevinB

Jake11 (a RC-135W Rivet Joint) violated Russian Airspace twice on it's flight plan today zig zagging outside of Murmansk 





						ADS-B Exchange - track aircraft live
					

ADS-B Exchange - track aircraft live - aircraft flight history




					globe.adsbexchange.com


----------



## Brad Sallows

> So when is a tank a tank and when is it an armoured self propelled anti tank gun?



Turret.

Is there a setting for disabling auto-play so I don't have to search for all the videos and turn them off?  Or can people stop posting content that auto-plays?


----------



## Kirkhill

Brad Sallows said:


> Turret.
> 
> Is there a setting for disabling auto-play so I don't have to search for all the videos and turn them off?  Or can people stop posting content that auto-plays?



Sorry about that Brad.  I'll pay more attention.  I find it as annoying as the rest of you.


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> Jake11 (a RC-135W Rivet Joint) violated Russian Airspace twice on it's flight plan today zig zagging outside of Murmansk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ADS-B Exchange - track aircraft live
> 
> 
> ADS-B Exchange - track aircraft live - aircraft flight history
> 
> 
> 
> 
> globe.adsbexchange.com



The flight path seems to coincide nicely with the locations of various nuclear weapons facilities on the Kola peninsula:










						Putin puts nuclear deterrence forces at Kola Peninsula on alert
					

Dramatic escalation of the conflict on Sunday as President Vladimir Putin tells his defense minister Sergei Shoigu and chief of general staff Valeri Gerasimov to put the strategic nuclear weapons to "a special mode of combat duty."




					thebarentsobserver.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Kirkhill said:


> So when is a tank a tank and when is it an armoured self propelled anti tank gun?


When doctrine say it is. The Swedish S tank, was deemed as a tank, due to Swedish doctrine, but most of us see it as a TD.


----------



## Kirkhill

Brad Sallows said:


> Turret.
> 
> Is there a setting for disabling auto-play so I don't have to search for all the videos and turn them off?  Or can people stop posting content that auto-plays?



To the mods - I agree.  Stop the Auto-play.

If it were the turret then the Swedish S-Tank would not be a tank.

How about defining by the tactics possible?  I'm looking at these Ukrainians using tanks in specific and not necessarily using them to roll across the steppes in the assault.  Together with that I am looking at the Mobile Protected Fire Vehicles being introduced by the US Army to their light divisions and the USA giving explicit direction that despite the turret they are not tanks.  They are better versions of the Stryker MGS.

Which got me to considering an @FJAG type "what if"?

What if the Leo 1s had not been worked to the bone but instead had been reallocated downwards to concentrate on the infantry support/anti-tank roles and the modern Leo 2s had been allocated to the Penetration roles? 

Of course all of that is flight of fancy time as we did blow out the Leo 1s, we bought the Leo 2s in a rush and we never committed to the MGS.  And, as we all know, we can't support microfleets of the right tools for the right jobs.... Unless they are operated by Engineers.


----------



## Kirkhill

Colin Parkinson said:


> When doctrine say it is. The Swedish S tank, was deemed as a tank, due to Swedish doctrine, but most of us see it as a TD.



So in that case - a light tank with a 105mm gun could be deemed - for doctrinal purposes, a DFSV or a SPATG.  And not an MBT.  Despite looking the same.


----------



## GK .Dundas

Kirkhill said:


> To the mods - I agree.  Stop the Auto-play.
> 
> If it were the turret then the Swedish S-Tank would not be a tank.
> 
> How about defining by the tactics possible?  I'm looking at these Ukrainians using tanks in specific and not necessarily using them to roll across the steppes in the assault.  Together with that I am looking at the Mobile Protected Fire Vehicles being introduced by the US Army to their light divisions and the USA giving explicit direction that despite the turret they are not tanks.  They are better versions of the Stryker MGS.
> 
> Which got me to considering an @FJAG type "what if"?
> 
> What if the Leo 1s had not been worked to the bone but instead had been reallocated downwards to concentrate on the infantry support/anti-tank roles and the modern Leo 2s had been allocated to the Penetration roles?
> 
> Of course all of that is flight of fancy time as we did blow out the Leo 1s, we bought the Leo 2s in a rush and we never committed to the MGS.  And, as we all know, we can't support microfleets of the right tools for the right jobs.... Unless they are operated by Engineers.


I have gamed the Leo 1s both as  cavalry vehicles and as an expeditionary tank. 
Mind you they'd just be another microfleet as someone else pointed out.


----------



## KevinB

daftandbarmy said:


> The flight path seems to coincide nicely with the locations of various nuclear weapons facilities on the Kola peninsula:
> 
> View attachment 73671
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Putin puts nuclear deterrence forces at Kola Peninsula on alert
> 
> 
> Dramatic escalation of the conflict on Sunday as President Vladimir Putin tells his defense minister Sergei Shoigu and chief of general staff Valeri Gerasimov to put the strategic nuclear weapons to "a special mode of combat duty."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> thebarentsobserver.com


Yeah I was trying to subtly point that out.  


Seemed a little more important than arguing over when is something a Tank V Tank Destroyer.


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> Jake11 (a RC-135W Rivet Joint) violated Russian Airspace twice on it's flight plan today zig zagging outside of Murmansk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ADS-B Exchange - track aircraft live
> 
> 
> ADS-B Exchange - track aircraft live - aircraft flight history
> 
> 
> 
> 
> globe.adsbexchange.com


Unless ADS-B is being spoofed or tweaked to make it look worse than a ‘close but not over’, that’s a spicy move!


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> Yeah I was trying to subtly point that out.
> 
> 
> Seemed a little more important than arguing over when is something a Tank V Tank Destroyer.



No kidding...


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Good2Golf said:


> Unless ADS-B is being spoofed or tweaked to make it look worse than a ‘close but not over’, that’s a spicy move!
> 
> View attachment 73673


Interesting that they kept their transponder on the whole time,
 especially so close to Russian airspace.


----------



## KevinB

Retired AF Guy said:


> Interesting that they kept their transponder on the whole time,
> especially so close to Russian airspace.


One doesn’t always need to be squawking to be up on ADS.  
    But generally the common theme has been all NATO AC are squawking when near conflict or border areas these days.  

The Global Hawks squawk when up near the Black Sea Fleet….


----------



## SeaKingTacco

KevinB said:


> One doesn’t always need to be squawking to be up on ADS.
> But generally the common theme has been all NATO AC are squawking when near conflict or border areas these days.
> 
> The Global Hawks squawk when up near the Black Sea Fleet….


The Russian know they are there. Everybody else knows it, too.
Best to squawk.


----------



## Good2Golf

Retired AF Guy said:


> Interesting that they kept their transponder on the whole time,
> especially so close to Russian airspace.


Making a statement.


----------



## KevinB

Good2Golf said:


> Making a statement.


The all seeing eye, and it knows when you’re being bad…


----------



## Spencer100

KevinB said:


> The all seeing eye, and it knows when you’re being bad…


----------



## KevinB

Spencer100 said:


> View attachment 73674


But in a good guy sense.  Not the oppressive evil of Sauron.


----------



## Kirkhill

Mobilization?  Or Rebellion?


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xjj6uy


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xjh9gc


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xjgubx


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xjduql


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xjedto


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xjbpl6
r/ukraine - Russian stock exchanges collapsing


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Speech is cancelled for tonite.


----------



## Kirkhill

Colin Parkinson said:


> Speech is cancelled for tonite.



Curious.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Just saw a tweet claiming disgruntled generals arrested Putin, but it appears to be a bogus attempt at spreading rumours.


----------



## Maxman1

CBH99 said:


> Tomayto Tomahto?


----------



## MilEME09

T-55's are going to hit the battlefield but not on the side we thought. Note these were upgraded on 1999 with a NATO standard 105mm gun, and electronics.










						Ukraine to get 28 M-55S tanks from Slovenia
					

Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have agreed on the transfer of 28 M-55S tanks to Ukraine, with Slovenia expected to receive 40 German-made transport vehicles in exchange. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> T-55's are going to hit the battlefield but not on the side we thought. Note these were upgraded on 1999 with a NATO standard 105mm gun, and electronics.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine to get 28 M-55S tanks from Slovenia
> 
> 
> Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have agreed on the transfer of 28 M-55S tanks to Ukraine, with Slovenia expected to receive 40 German-made transport vehicles in exchange. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net


Interesting....











						Slovenia Is Giving Ukraine Some Very Old Tanks. But Age Can Be Deceiving.
					

Slovenia has announced it’s sending to Ukraine some very old tanks. As in, 70 years old, if you’re simply dating the original design. But the Slovenians have given them some interesting upgrades.




					www.forbes.com


----------



## brihard

Colin Parkinson said:


> Just saw a tweet claiming disgruntled generals arrested Putin, but it appears to be a bogus attempt at spreading rumours.


Are any of Russia’s generals particularly gruntled at the moment?


----------



## Maxman1




----------



## CBH99

Well if the head of the central bank resigns due to her position of ‘Mobilization = Resignation’ - then the writing is on the wall…

Russian TV broadcasters can’t ignore something like that.  Sure, the late night shows will spin it in a way to attempt humour - but the average person can see this, and immediately know why. 

If Russian’s internet searches of ‘How to leave Russia’ and ‘How to avoid mobilization’ have skyrocketed, I’m sure the FSB has informed Putin of such. 


Does that mean, since society figured it out first, that Putin is reconsidering the decision? 

Possibly, but not likely given the choices he’s made thus far in regards to Ukraine…

Does that mean the remaining General staff have drawn a line in the sand, and are enforcing it?  Enough is enough, we can’t continue bleeding the country dry for a war that we cannot win?

Or is it a ruse, while Russian nuclear assets posture themselves in such a way that he feels more confident in his upcoming decisions?

(He does have quite the nuclear submarine fleet on paper.  Both the latest launch, as well as the most modern class of Russian submarines have been highly regarded, even by USN commanders who have nodded at their design & capabilities.  They didn’t just recently launch Belgorod with no intention of possibly ever needing her…

We have seen Russian submarines fire Khalibre ICBM’s from the sea into Syria, so it is a capability they have. 

Or, perhaps these will perform about as well as the Russian Army…eliminating any real concern we once had?)


As easy as it may be too soon or draw inferences into Putin’s state of mind these days, I think we can all agree that for decades now he’s been clever, strategic in his thinking, bold enough to move Russian industry and interests ahead, etc.  He may or may not be losing it, but I think it dangerous to start underestimating him now.


My 2 cents

EDIT - Not sure if this is true or not, but my source is someone relatively in the know.  

There is hesitation to use ground launched nuclear weapons due to only a 15% confidence rate the weapons won’t detonate instantly, or land within Russian territory.  

(Apparently the material needs to be maintained/replaced every 8 years or so.  With no easily verifiable way to ensure proper work has been done on these weapons, there is a real fear the money intended for them went into people’s pockets instead…)


----------



## MilEME09

Russia won't risk nukes, putin might but most Russian commanders aren't suicidal and know it's article 5 waiting to happen. Poland has made it very clear they will trigger article 5 if radiation from a nuclear or radiological event caused by Russia drifts over Poland. NATO views any NBC as all the same regardless of tactical or strategic nukes. This would result in russia being sent to the stone age with an unknown retaliation given the poor state of their systems. I suspect only 30% of warheads work, but that's all they need, and I don't wanna find out if I'm right or not.


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1572452659000492032


----------



## CBH99

MilEME09 said:


> Russia won't risk nukes, putin might but most Russian commanders aren't suicidal and know it's article 5 waiting to happen. Poland has made it very clear they will trigger article 5 if radiation from a nuclear or radiological event caused by Russia drifts over Poland. NATO views any NBC as all the same regardless of tactical or strategic nukes. This would result in russia being sent to the stone age with an unknown retaliation given the poor state of their systems. I suspect only 30% of warheads work, but that's all they need, and I don't wanna find out if I'm right or not.


Given what’s happened thus far… like someone else said:  I could Putin using either a low yield tactical nuke, or a nasty and/or massive dirty bomb in the Crimea region if it appears Ukraine will take it back.

Russia considers that region theirs now, and could easily do the propaganda work to convince their own citizens it really is theirs.  

If something nasty happens like that, I think it will be designed to look like either an accident, or a false flag.  And that’ll be where it happens.  

It won’t be a blatant nuke launch for all of the obvious reasons, but it’ll do the trick nonetheless.


----------



## KevinB

CBH99 said:


> Given what’s happened thus far… like someone else said:  I could Putin using either a low yield tactical nuke, or a nasty and/or massive dirty bomb in the Crimea region if it appears Ukraine will take it back.
> 
> Russia considers that region theirs now, and could easily do the propaganda work to convince their own citizens it really is theirs.
> 
> If something nasty happens like that, I think it will be designed to look like either an accident, or a false flag.  And that’ll be where it happens.
> 
> It won’t be a blatant nuke launch for all of the obvious reasons, but it’ll do the trick nonetheless.


Using nuclear weapons means the end of Russia - period. 

    It’s a sabre that Putin knows needs to stay in the sheath, less the blade be seen by enemies as rusty and dull.   

If he tries and fizzles, then there will be a bloodlust rush through Russia ever storage location etc will be vaporized and Russia will never recover or be recognizable again.


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> Russia won't risk nukes, putin might but most Russian commanders aren't suicidal and know it's article 5 waiting to happen. Poland has made it very clear they will trigger article 5 if radiation from a nuclear or radiological event caused by Russia drifts over Poland. NATO views any NBC as all the same regardless of tactical or strategic nukes. This would result in russia being sent to the stone age with an unknown retaliation given the poor state of their systems. I suspect only 30% of warheads work, but that's all they need, and I don't wanna find out if I'm right or not.


If Russia moves to the Stone Age, then parts of the world would follow them into it and the rest would move 'back in time' as well.
Take out the majority of the Russian's ability to grow huge amounts of wheat/cereal crops and large parts of the world could truly risk famine on a scale not seen in living memory - and this would occur for years and years.

The potential power vacuum might be large enough that China makes a large move into parts of Siberia along its border under the guise of a 'stabilising/humanitarian guise' and then never leave.  

There are too many known unknowns going down the path of Russia using a nuke - tactical or not -  for anyone to consider this a particular good path to go down. 

Just my 2 CAD cents, or 1.5 USD cents.


----------



## GK .Dundas

You're assuming of course that the Russian leadership is rational or at least approaches your definition of rational.
An awful lot of history has resulted from people not reacting the way they were expected to.


----------



## Kirkhill

Czech_pivo said:


> If Russia moves to the Stone Age, then parts of the world would follow them into it and the rest would move 'back in time' as well.
> Take out the majority of the Russian's ability to grow huge amounts of wheat/cereal crops and large parts of the world could truly risk famine on a scale not seen in living memory - and this would occur for years and years.
> 
> The potential power vacuum might be large enough that China makes a large move into parts of Siberia along its border under the guise of a 'stabilising/humanitarian guise' and then never leave.
> 
> There are too many known unknowns going down the path of Russia using a nuke - tactical or not -  for anyone to consider this a particular good path to go down.
> 
> Just my 2 CAD cents, or 1.5 USD cents.



China not only shares borders with Russia it also shares the wind.   Not sure if Xi would be particularly supportive of the release of nukes in his neighbourhood.


----------



## ueo

MilEME09 said:


> More Canadian aid in action
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1571943884175052801


Maybe not from Cda. Luithania perhaps?


KevinB said:


> Yeah I was trying to subtly point that out.
> 
> 
> Seemed a little more important than arguing over when is something a Tank V Tank Destroyer.


Somebody doing early Xmas shopping?


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> China not only shares borders with Russia it also shares the wind.   Not sure if Xi would be particularly supportive of the release of nukes in his neighbourhood.


I don't disagree with you but if significant parts of the world 'move back in time', then all that manufacturing that China has becomes a tad redundant and that in turn leads to tens of millions of disgruntled former peasants who left their lands and moved to the city for a better life becoming poor, hungry and disillusioned - what better solution than shifting all of them to the virgin lands of central/eastern Siberia to 'develop' (cough cough, exploit -  raze - burn - pollute - cough cough)?  All that redundant manufacturing can then be turned over to developing those new lands seized. The beast continues to be fed.

In Communism - in its former host of Russia and its former host of China - both nature and man were mere tools to be used exclusively and exhaustively in the pursuit of World Communism.  The toll taken by both nature and man was the price to be paid.  Both Russia (USSR) and China continue today to foster this mantra.  This legacy continues to live on and continues to be taught.  The cycle is unbroken and looking into the current/near future, will continue to be unbroken.


----------



## Spencer100

Czech_pivo said:


> I don't disagree with you but if significant parts of the world 'move back in time', then all that manufacturing that China has becomes a tad redundant and that in turn leads to tens of millions of disgruntled former peasants who left their lands and moved to the city for a better life becoming poor, hungry and disillusioned - what better solution than shifting all of them to the virgin lands of central/eastern Siberia to 'develop' (cough cough, exploit -  raze - burn - pollute - cough cough)?  All that redundant manufacturing can then be turned over to developing those new lands seized. The beast continues to be fed.
> 
> In Communism - in its former host of Russia and its former host of China - both nature and man were mere tools to be used exclusively and exhaustively in the pursuit of World Communism.  The toll taken by both nature and man was the price to be paid.  Both Russia (USSR) and China continue today to foster this mantra.  This legacy continues to live on and continues to be taught.  The cycle is unbroken and looking into the current/near future, will continue to be unbroken.


Well said.  

Plus what to do, what to do with 40 million single men with no chance of finding a woman?  Its like the solution is just sitting there.


----------



## IKnowNothing

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-russia-weapons-1.6589322
		


LAV VI request out in the open.  Opportunity to both step up internationally and to facelift the army with the replacement


----------



## daftandbarmy

IKnowNothing said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-russia-weapons-1.6589322
> 
> 
> 
> LAV VI request out in the open.  Opportunity to both step up internationally and to facelift the army with the replacement



They're looking for winter clothing too. What should we tell them?


----------



## Colin Parkinson




----------



## Czech_pivo

daftandbarmy said:


> They're looking for winter clothing too. What should we tell them?


Shop at MEC?


----------



## MJP

daftandbarmy said:


> They're looking for winter clothing too. What should we tell them?


Mostly because we gave them most of our old stocks of winter clothing (and other old clothing stock) in previous years.


----------



## Brad Sallows

While speculating about appropriate reactions to Russian escalation, don't forget the Soleimani Lesson.  No need to burn parts of Russia to the ground.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Colin Parkinson said:


> View attachment 73685


Do you think these guys will be cycled out at the 6 month mark before being re-inserted for some much needed R&R, well in the rear and at some 4/5 star resort in say Cyprus where medical staff and such are there for counselling/screening?


----------



## MilEME09

Interesting while Putins speech may of said partial mobilization. The text of the actual decree reads more like full mobilization, no reference to just reservists, or 300k. Buckle up everyone, the red army is coming, it may be poorly trained, equipped, and have no moral but it's still a horde


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> Interesting while Putins speech may of said partial mobilization. The text of the actual decree reads more like full mobilization, no reference to just reservists, or 300k. Buckle up everyone, the red army is coming, it may be poorly trained, equipped, and have no moral but it's still a horde


Hide your toilets, washers and wristwatches for the Red Army is coming.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Interesting while Putins speech may of said partial mobilization. The text of the actual decree reads more like full mobilization, no reference to just reservists, or 300k. Buckle up everyone, the red army is coming, it may be poorly trained, equipped, and have no moral but it's still a horde


I see more HIMARS on the way… 

I wonder what the Agency is offering for defecting Boomers w/crew. 
  Pretty sure that retirement option will be pretty attractive.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

KevinB said:


> I see more HIMARS on the way…
> 
> I wonder what the Agency is offering for defecting Boomers w/crew.
> Pretty sure that retirement option will be pretty attractive.


A ranch in Montana and a RV?


----------



## Spencer100

Colin Parkinson said:


> A ranch in Montana and a RV?


Raise rabbits and a round American Wife. And a Pick up!


----------



## Spencer100

Oh here is the vid.   

Plus two wives! and summer's in Arizona.  






Oh and its Sam Neil birthday today he's 75.


----------



## Czech_pivo

All right -

Lay down your bets.  Odds that Putin doesn't see the next Orthodox Christmas.

I'm going with 60/40.


----------



## Weinie

Spencer100 said:


> Oh here is the vid.
> 
> *Plus two wives! a*nd summer's in Arizona.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Oh and its Sam Neil birthday today he's 75.


I am struggling with one wife. Unless the other is Gisellle Bundchen, no thanks.


----------



## mariomike

Spencer100 said:


> Plus two wives! and summer's in Arizona.



I believe he said, winters in AZ.


----------



## Spencer100

Weinie said:


> I am struggling with one wife. Unless the other is Gisellle Bundchen, no thanks.


And then maybe not even then









						Tom Brady Hints That His Marriage Woes With Giselle Bündchen Are Affecting His NFL Career
					

After an emotional outburst on the football field during the Tampa Bay Buccaneers versus Dallas Cowboys game last Sunday, Tom Brady publically apologized for his actions and hinted at what may have led him to throw his tablet and football helmet while yelling at his teammates from the sidelines...




					www.yahoo.com


----------



## Weinie

Spencer100 said:


> And then maybe not even then
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Tom Brady Hints That His Marriage Woes With Giselle Bündchen Are Affecting His NFL Career
> 
> 
> After an emotional outburst on the football field during the Tampa Bay Buccaneers versus Dallas Cowboys game last Sunday, Tom Brady publically apologized for his actions and hinted at what may have led him to throw his tablet and football helmet while yelling at his teammates from the sidelines...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.yahoo.com


C'mon. A man can hope can't he?


----------



## Weinie

Czech_pivo said:


> All right -
> 
> Lay down your bets.  Odds that Putin doesn't see the next Orthodox Christmas.
> 
> I'm going with 60/40.


I would welcome that. But VVP has proven himself to be a canny operator, ready for all Russian experiences. His demise would be satisfactory, but who would his successor be? Medvedev? His rantings, while obviously supporting Putin, are just as outrageous. Perhaps there is a bloc within Russia that does not seek imperialism.


----------



## Spencer100

Czech_pivo said:


> All right -
> 
> Lay down your bets.  Odds that Putin doesn't see the next Orthodox Christmas.
> 
> I'm going with 60/40.


90/10 he does.  

Revolutions are hard things.  I think in the modern world even harder. Everything tracked, recorded, photographed, geolocated.  The power of the state has never been higher.  The info FB, Google, Baidu, WeChat, TikTok etc have on everyone would make the Stasi blush.  And the ease which state actors can access that info well known.  Then include the modern states own info gathering tech and resources it's an uphill battle.

Just freezing bank accounts and electronic payments put a stop to most revolts or upraising. 

But we will see.  A protest in St Petersburgh and some parts of Moscow will not be enough.  You will need to mining towns and villages in Siberia start.

The world is getting interesting.  Iran protests are growing and from females too.  That maybe an interesting development.   

So many of Russia's neighbors are getting restless.  Armenia/Azerbaijan fighting, Iran with protests,  The other Stans not all quiet.  etc... Turkey playing every side and middle.  The Caucuses' all ways ready to explode.  The great friend China happy to buy energy at a special Ivan it's got to go price not too happy about what they see right now.


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> I see more HIMARS on the way…
> 
> I wonder what the Agency is offering for defecting Boomers w/crew.
> Pretty sure that retirement option will be pretty attractive.


Free homestead land in Montana?


----------



## Spencer100

Good2Golf said:


> Free homestead land in Montana?


yup.  But one ping only Vasily.


----------



## KevinB

Good2Golf said:


> Free homestead land in Montana?


I think most Russians would love California or an equally pleasant climate...


----------



## daftandbarmy

Interesting observations about Russian training, or not 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1572571676524838915


----------



## MilEME09

Big POW swap today, including the Azov commanders from Azovstal who will remain in turkey for the rest of the war.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1572723939478228992


----------



## YZT580

potentially these referendae will provide Russia's motive for out and out war.  They are saying now that bombing  mother Russia is the red line in the sand.  While if the Donbas becomes part of Russia then that line is suddenly within the Ukraine.  Now what?


----------



## KevinB

YZT580 said:


> potentially these referendae will provide Russia's motive for out and out war.  They are saying now that bombing  mother Russia is the red line in the sand.  While if the Donbas becomes part of Russia then that line is suddenly within the Ukraine.  Now what?


Yawn. 
  Turkey shot down a Russian fighter in Syria. 
  Russia claims Crimea - which has been hit. 
  Belgorod is in Russia - and has been hit.


----------



## Skysix

Good sources for analysis from:
Germany


			https://youtube.com/channel/UC3KfcvCLVi2PW_QY80hEwTA
		


Austria





Australia


			https://youtube.com/channel/UCC3ehuUksTyQ7bbjGntmx3Q


----------



## Skysix

Wonder which oligarch recently got a contract for 300,000 heavy duty garbage bags...


----------



## KevinB

More dissent in Russia. 
Russian Pop Music Icon Comes Out Against the War in Ukraine


----------



## daftandbarmy

YZT580 said:


> potentially these referendae will provide Russia's motive for out and out war.  They are saying now that bombing  mother Russia is the red line in the sand.  While if the Donbas becomes part of Russia then that line is suddenly within the Ukraine.  Now what?



We call their bluff. When Putin says 'I'm not bluffing' he is.

This is a great test of Western resolve, and a first class opportunity to build some 'realpolitk' muscles.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Looking for some insight here, as I know that there are many, many highly knowledgeable individuals on this forum.

My questions are these:

With the announcement of Russia's stated 300k call-up of 'experienced' conscripts, where will they all go?  Meaning, will all 300k go straight into the Army?  Will some go into the Navy, bringing more 'ships of the line' online, causing NATO to respond with 'shadowing' ships/aircraft?  Will some go to the Air Force, allowing greater operational tempo to be achieved (more grounds crew, munitions handlers, pilots(?), etc). Or, will all 300k go straight into the horde that was formerly known as the 'Red Army'?

Does Russia, at this stage in the game, even have enough military resources available to outfit 300k bodies - uniforms, helmets, boots, mess kits, tents, sleeping bags, MRE's, medical supplies, personal weapons, small arms ammo. 

On the mech. side, enough fuel trucks, utility trucks, tanks, AA units, AFV's, Arty, Arty towers, etc, to equip some of these 300k?

Will it be simply the case of 300k foot soldiers are magically created, poorly armed, poorly trained, poorly led, poorly motivated, but effectively a 'horde' that will rise up enmasse, shout 'Urrah' and run over the Ukrainian frontlines along a narrow corridor hoping to bust the whole line wide open?


----------



## MilEME09

Russia doesn't throw anything away, we have seen artillery ammo dated from 1964 in use. They probably have the kit to outfit 300k, but the condition of that kit is highly questionable. Reports that tanks were sent from depot to the from with guns that do not work are common. Rations already was a problem, as well as first aid supplies, medical equipment,  etc.... they do not have the domestic industry to support this.


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> Russia doesn't throw anything away, we have seen artillery ammo dated from 1964 in use. They probably have the kit to outfit 300k, but the condition of that kit is highly questionable. Reports that tanks were sent from depot to the from with guns that do not work are common. Rations already was a problem, as well as first aid supplies, medical equipment,  etc.... they do not have the domestic industry to support this.


Thanks for this but I'm still looking to address some of my questions.

Will the 300k simply be 'foot soldiers' or will some of them go into the arty/tanks?  Does Russia have enough arty barrels to replace all the worn out barrels that I'm certain they have now?  Having access to old ammo from 1964 is fine (maybe?) but what will fire it? 

I just don't see how Russia can add 300k foot soldiers that are again, poorly equipped, poorly trained, poorly led, poorly motivated and expect to win, unless they use some sort of WMD to completely cause some/all of the Ukrainian frontlines to collapse and those troops cease to exist.


----------



## RangerRay

Czech_pivo said:


> Will it be simply the case of 300k foot soldiers are magically created, poorly armed, poorly trained, poorly led, poorly motivated, but effectively a 'horde' that will rise up enmasse, shout 'Urrah' and run over the Ukrainian frontlines along a narrow corridor hoping to bust the whole line wide open?


I can see that. In their last war against Germany, did they not send soldiers into battle with no rifle and boots, with instructions to pick up rifles and boots from their dead comrades in front of them?


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Thanks for this but I'm still looking to address some of my questions.
> 
> Will the 300k simply be 'foot soldiers' or will some of them go into the arty/tanks?  Does Russia have enough arty barrels to replace all the worn out barrels that I'm certain they have now?  Having access to old ammo from 1964 is fine (maybe?) but what will fire it?
> 
> I just don't see how Russia can add 300k foot soldiers that are again, poorly equipped, poorly trained, poorly led, poorly motivated and expect to win, unless they use some sort of WMD to completely cause some/all of the Ukrainian frontlines to collapse and those troops cease to exist.


Bluff and bluster trying to reduce Western support. 

I am sure some of the 300k will got into T-62’s and T-54/55’s or older Artillery too, but the majority will be Infantry.  
    Why — they burned up the training cadres already - so nothing really exists to create more.   
    The majority of these folks will have been Infantry— so they stay Infantry.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> Bluff and bluster trying to reduce Western support.
> 
> I am sure some of the 300k will got into T-62’s and T-54/55’s or older Artillery too, but the majority will be Infantry.
> Why — they burned up the training cadres already - so nothing really exists to create more.
> The majority of these folks will have been Infantry— so they stay Infantry.


Don't forget ammunition handlers to load and unload trains,  as well as bodies to fix tracks and bridges and man ferries.

But where are they going to find the sigs types that manned all the CPs visited by HIMARS?


----------



## Colin Parkinson

They may actually send a bunch of these mobilized soldiers to the other regions, so they can train there and release trained soldiers to go to Ukraine immediately. It's a given that NATO won't invade so there is no risk. China is unlikely to annex any territory for the moment so trained forces can be drawn down from there as well. This would mean as the General in charge, I can get troops right now with some training to bolster the defense lines and allow them to get familiar with the operational theatre, before any counter attack. Meanwhile the Newbie can learn basic soldiering on the Frontier in ButtFu*ksnowhereski. Keep them there for 6 months, rotate them to the front and replace with the next batch of Newbies.


----------



## CBH99

All flights leaving Russia were sold out yesterday.  

Plus I highly doubt Russiaeven has enough footwear for that amount of incoming people, not to mention basic fighting kit.  Russian troops have already been shown to be wearing running shoes they had to purchase themselves.  

(Too bad the Russian Air Force bombed a lot of the malls, sounds like the Russian army would probably have been good customers this time of year, although shoplifting may have been a wee bit out of control…)


They aren’t able to build any tanks currently, due to a shortage of necessary electronics & alloys.  I imagine IFV’s are in a similar boat.  

If 190,000 regulars, with the element of relative surprise, with decent kit (by Russian standards), air & artillery support, etc - weren’t able to succeed, I don’t know how effective these incoming guys are going to be…

(Remember to keep some guys close to home Putler, have a feeling you might need them sooner or later…)


----------



## KevinB

Colin Parkinson said:


> They may actually send a bunch of these mobilized soldiers to the other regions, so they can train there and release trained soldiers to go to Ukraine immediately. It's a given that NATO won't invade so there is no risk. China is unlikely to annex any territory for the moment so trained forces can be drawn down from there as well. This would mean as the General in charge, I can get troops right now with some training to bolster the defense lines and allow them to get familiar with the operational theatre, before any counter attack. Meanwhile the Newbie can learn basic soldiering on the Frontier in ButtFu*ksnowhereski. Keep them there for 6 months, rotate them to the front and replace with the next batch of Newbies.


Just where is he finding these trained soldiers from other regions?  EVERY Garrison has already been stripped.
   Most of those left in certain positions are either the sick or unwanted, Or folks who won't be deployed anyway.



Kirkhill said:


> Don't forget ammunition handlers to load and unload trains,  as well as bodies to fix tracks and bridges and man ferries.
> 
> But where are they going to find the sigs types that manned all the CPs visited by HIMARS?


No needs of Sig's when you don't have radios...


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> Just where is he finding these trained soldiers from other regions?  EVERY Garrison has already been stripped.
> Most of those left in certain positions are either the sick or unwanted, Or folks who won't be deployed anyway.
> 
> 
> No needs of Sig's when you don't have radios...



And I'm not sure about China - there was that outlier of a report - a video reputedly of Chinese trucks in Vladivostok.

Perhaps Xi has already offered fraternal assistance to Vlad and relieve him of the responsibility and worry about the Pacific coast.  And Siberia. And Japan, and Korea. 

Xi has already made it clear there will be no "Colour Revolutions" in the far east and the stans on his watch.  Swapping the PLA for the VDV and Rogvardia Chechens?


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> And I'm not sure about China - there was that outlier of a report - a video reputedly of Chinese trucks in Vladivostok.
> 
> Perhaps Xi has already offered fraternal assistance to Vlad and relieve him of the responsibility and worry about the Pacific coast.  And Siberia. And Japan, and Korea.
> 
> Xi has already made it clear there will be no "Colour Revolutions" in the far east and the stans on his watch.  Swapping the PLA for the VDV and Rogvardia Chechens?


Xi gains from Russia failure...
   The only "support" Putin gets from China will be one sided.  Both China and India have been rebuking Russia of late, as they smell blood, and the peril that befalls them if they are on Team Russia when the tent goes up.

One thing you can credit us Americans with, we are pretty much good for black and white outlooks, we even had a President come out and say, "if you aren't with us, you are against..."  China will get as much from Russia as they can without any direct support of confrontation with the US.
  Less than 1/5th our Army is in Europe, the rest waiting, with the USN, USMC and most of the USAF for the Pacific.


----------



## Kirkhill

If the Ukrainians are looking for 5 more brigades they seem to have picked up a good chunk of that in Russian donations in the Kharkiv area.


----------



## Spencer100

Newsreel time 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1572947574016933888


----------



## KevinB

Spencer100 said:


> Newsreel time
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1572947574016933888


Epic trolling


----------



## YZT580

Not a really earth-shattering observation but it has struck me that the greatest difference between photos from the Ukraine side and those from Russia is that many of the Ukraines exhibit an air of quiet confidence and a display of humour (even gallows humour) regardless of the adversity whilst the Russians are glum and angry.


----------



## Lumber

YZT580 said:


> Not a really earth-shattering observation but it has struck me that the greatest difference between photos from the Ukraine side and those from Russia is that many of the Ukraines exhibit an air of quiet confidence and a display of humour (even gallows humour) regardless of the adversity whilst the Russians are glum and angry.


Have you seen the "we're lucky they're so fucking stupid" clip from early on in the war?


----------



## KevinB

YZT580 said:


> Not a really earth-shattering observation but it has struck me that the greatest difference between photos from the Ukraine side and those from Russia is that many of the Ukraines exhibit an air of quiet confidence and a display of humour (even gallows humour) regardless of the adversity whilst the Russians are glum and angry.


They went into the war missing Winter kit -- Russian troops without winter kit...
  I guess someone sold it for profit.

I don't think this winter will be better for them.


----------



## Maxman1

RangerRay said:


> I can see that. In their last war against Germany, did they not send soldiers into battle with no rifle and boots, with instructions to pick up rifles and boots from their dead comrades in front of them?



No, they did not. That was invented for _Enemy At the Gates_, with the closest similarity being Imperial troops in the First World War suffering arms shortages. Just one of many things that film made up or otherwise got wrong.

Soviet troops were short of ammo early into the war and could be sent into combat with as little as one round, but they were still issued a rifle.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> They went into the war missing Winter kit -- Russian troops without winter kit...
> I guess someone sold it for profit.
> 
> I don't think this winter will be better for them.


I'd say, 'let's hope for a cold winter' but that works against Western Europe and their need for heating supplies.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> I'd say, 'let's hope for a cold winter' but that works against Western Europe and their need for heating supplies.


They have more than enough energy from the German nuclear reactors when combined with the stuff being brought in from outside of Europe.


----------



## suffolkowner

KevinB said:


> They have more than enough energy from the German nuclear reactors when combined with the stuff being brought in from outside of Europe.


I think they need the NG for heat and industrial uses. The one BASF plant has something like 100,000 employees and uses as much NG as all of Denmark. The electricity market is a separate matter and acting like markets sometimes do. Still it was a mistake to shutdown some of the nuclear reactors or at least premature


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> They have more than enough energy from the German nuclear reactors when combined with the stuff being brought in from outside of Europe.



And they are not short of coal



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/germany-coal-renewable-energy-climate-russia-1.6500354


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> And they are not short of coal
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/germany-coal-renewable-energy-climate-russia-1.6500354



Jawhol Coal!


Coal Reserves in Germany​
Germany holds *39,802 million tons (MMst) of proven coal reserves as of 2016*, ranking *6th* in the world and accounting for about 3% of the world's total coal reserves of 1,139,471 million tons (MMst).

Germany has proven reserves equivalent to *154.6 times its annual consumption*. This means it has about *155 years of Coal left *(at current consumption levels and excluding unproven reserves).










						Germany Coal Reserves and Consumption Statistics - Worldometer
					

Current and historical Reserves, Production, and Consumption of Natural Coal in Germany. Global rank and share of world's total. Data, Statistics and Charts.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> Jawhol Coal!
> 
> 
> Coal Reserves in Germany​
> Germany holds *39,802 million tons (MMst) of proven coal reserves as of 2016*, ranking *6th* in the world and accounting for about 3% of the world's total coal reserves of 1,139,471 million tons (MMst).
> 
> Germany has proven reserves equivalent to *154.6 times its annual consumption*. This means it has about *155 years of Coal left *(at current consumption levels and excluding unproven reserves).
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Germany Coal Reserves and Consumption Statistics - Worldometer
> 
> 
> Current and historical Reserves, Production, and Consumption of Natural Coal in Germany. Global rank and share of world's total. Data, Statistics and Charts.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.worldometers.info



Remember that story about the Germans preferring fat, lazy staff officers because they were the most efficient?  They were inclined to get things done with the least effort?  

I don't think they survived the war.


----------



## MilEME09

Meanwhile Russian conscripts getting kitted out




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573116262942707712


----------



## RangerRay

They’re eve running low on Kalashnikovs?


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573057076485844992


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573057076485844992


Somehow I’m not sure they’ve thought their cunning plan all the way through…


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Led by the senior staff no doubt......


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1572923784071372802


----------



## Blackadder1916

Remius said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1572923784071372802



What?  Were the windows painted shut?


----------



## Staff Weenie

brihard said:


> Somehow I’m not sure they’ve thought their cunning plan all the way through…


Dear God, have we figured out who's behind Vlad's evil plan? Has it been Baldric all this time? Very cunning!


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573116262942707712


How was “You will cease to exist in all entirety” vague?


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1572906621558292481


----------



## Kirkhill

And meantime the Belarussian Anarchists enter the fray.

Which foot do you think they start off on?


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xkf0mh


----------



## ModlrMike

Czech_pivo said:


> I'd say, 'let's hope for a cold winter' but that works against Western Europe and their need for heating supplies.


If only there was an ally with adequate reserves...


----------



## daftandbarmy

ModlrMike said:


> If only there was an ally with adequate reserves...



Or a national government that had a clue about what our economic potential is, or cared:


Opinion: Maximizing Western Canada’s huge economic potential key to building a stronger economy​
With Parliament returning, the federal government must turn its attention to developing a serious plan to grow our economy. As part of this plan, the government must focus on measures that enable western Canadian businesses to scale and access growing global economies looking for safe and secure natural resources the West can provide. 

With its extensive natural resources, Western Canada has long been both a robust economic engine in Canada as well as an established world leader in many crucial economic sectors.

Despite already accounting for nearly 40 per cent of Canada’s GDP, untapped potential remains. Successfully and sustainably bringing the immense natural wealth of Western Canada to international markets will drive country-wide prosperity.

The federal government must realize that, as the pace of change facing Canadian businesses accelerates, companies need to be agile and adapt to remain competitive and generate long-term economic growth. To help them do this, the government should address four key areas.

We have a million unfilled jobs in Canada right now, with the West seeing the lowest unemployment rates in Canada. To grow our economy, the government needs to address worsening labour and talent shortages.

At the federal level, this means collaborating more closely with provincial, territorial and municipal governments, and with the private sector, to better understand labour market needs across the country.

In short, Canada needs a comprehensive strategy that looks at immigration, reskilling and up-skilling, new training approaches and talent pipeline management systems all working together.

Canada’s agricultural sector, anchored in the West, is a world leader in quality, innovation and sustainability. With over 100,000 farming operations and 85 per cent of Canada’s farmland, the continued competitiveness and sustainability of the western agriculture sector is vital to Canada’s economic expansion.

But the agriculture sector continues to be constrained by extraneous regulation. The sector needs a regulatory regime that is robust, adjustable and evidence-based. Enabling innovation and economic growth, particularly exports, must be a top consideration for regulators. As Parliament resumes, the government must continue to support and incentivize the agriculture and value-added food sector. This includes continuing to partner with western Canadian businesses on research, product development and the commercialization of the sector.

As Canada’s gateway to over 170 trading economies around the world, western Canadian ports handle $1 of every $3 of Canada’s trade in goods outside North America. But the capacity of Canada’s West Coast to serve much-needed long-term export growth is quickly becoming constrained by shipping terminal congestion and a lack of warehousing and industrial lands.

We must make major, strategic investments in Canada’s trade infrastructure to grow and sustain our economy. We can’t wait a decade to move projects forward. Because of its strategic location, Western Canada can power major economic growth if we are prepared to eliminate barriers and renew and strengthen infrastructure to meet long-term goals. The government must commit to a trade gateways strategy that will set the tone for investments across all levels of government and the private sector.

As the world transitions to a lower carbon future and as the geopolitical environment realigns in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Western Canada can provide secure and safely produced energy that growing economies need. Our new “green helmet” should reflect the role our low carbon energy, natural resources and critical minerals can provide to countries in need.

It is crucial the government acts to improve Canada’s regulatory environment to help attract the investment capital needed to create new energy assets, including liquid natural gas and hydrogen. Government needs to act with a sense of urgency and clarity to make sure we take advantage of our ability to support the global need for energy and natural resources. Getting out of our own way will promote responsible extraction, value-added processing and end-use manufacturing here in Canada.

A strong Western Canada is critical to a strong Canada. And Western Canada has the goods the world needs. Adopting these priorities will not only support western Canadian business but will lead to a more prosperous Canada.

_Tamara Vrooman is CEO of the Vancouver Airport Authority and Susannah Pierce is president and country chair Canada for Shell Canada. They co-chair the Western Executive Council of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce._










						Opinion: Maximizing Western Canada’s huge economic potential key to building a stronger economy
					

Getting out of our own way will promote responsible extraction, value-added processing and end-use manufacturing here in Canada.




					calgaryherald.com


----------



## CBH99

Having a PM that cared would actually be a step up, in my opinion.


- Our PM actively shoots down oil & gas projects, even one in Quebec which would have employed 14,000 during it’s construction.  (The one above, and the Tekk project in Alberta were the biggest 2)

He also hinders what’s left of our aviation industry, especially now that a company is setting up shop near Calgary.  

- Does everything he can to drive inflation up, and his solution is to keep doing those same things.  And when the interest rate of people’s mortgages rises by even 1% or 2%, plenty of people won’t be able to afford their mortgages anymore…

It’s absurd people have to pay almost a half million just for a decent house in a decent neighbourhood.  


I’d say he’s taking his role in the Great Reset pretty seriously, and actively working against our economic interests.


----------



## Good2Golf

“Green Helmets?”

🤦🏻


----------



## Czech_pivo

Remius said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1572923784071372802


Unreal.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Blackadder1916 said:


> What?  Were the windows painted shut?


It was in a 1 floor building but it did have 5 steps up to the front door, must have been those steps.


----------



## Remius

Czech_pivo said:


> Unreal.


Why are they even pretending at this point….


----------



## Weinie

Remius said:


> Why are they even pretending at this point….


I think they met their defenestration limit for the year, now they have to find other everyday household hazards.


----------



## GK .Dundas

"Who had slipped in the shower for October?"


----------



## KevinB

GK .Dundas said:


> "Who had slipped in the shower for October?"


Hopefully Vlad takes a bath with his favorite toaster.


----------



## Good2Golf

Weinie said:


> I think they met their defenestration limit for the year, now they have to find other everyday household hazards.


or Vlad’s pharmacy is giving out freebies?


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/kherson/comments/xa5qyk


----------



## Remius

Weinie said:


> I think they met their defenestration limit for the year, now they have to find other everyday household hazards.


Nah.  I think people are getting wise and have been putting safety cages and or locked shutters on the windows.


----------



## AirDet

suffolkowner said:


> I think they need the NG for heat and industrial uses. The one BASF plant has something like 100,000 employees and uses as much NG as all of Denmark. The electricity market is a separate matter and acting like markets sometimes do. Still it was a mistake to shutdown some of the nuclear reactors or at least premature


In context, Denmark has been weening itself off non-renewable energy for decades. NG was never really used much there.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

AirDet said:


> In context, Denmark has been weening itself off non-renewable energy for decades. NG was never really used much there.


Denmark is not a country, it's a municipality with pretensions, it's only slightly bigger than the Lower mainland.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Colin Parkinson said:


> Denmark is not a country, it's a municipality with pretensions, it's only slightly bigger than the Lower mainland.



And flat as an Aebleskiver


----------



## Spencer100

Colin Parkinson said:


> Denmark is not a country, it's a municipality with pretensions, it's only slightly bigger than the Lower mainland.


don't forget *Lego* and the largest western ocean shipping and logistics company.  I didn't mind the beer, if you can afford it.  After that.......I got nothing.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Spencer100 said:


> don't forget *Lego* and the largest western ocean shipping and logistics company.  I didn't mind the beer, if you can afford it.  After that.......I got nothing.


Singapore is worth more per Square Km. Neither are really a country when it comes to infrastructure.


----------



## KevinB

Colin Parkinson said:


> Singapore is worth more per Square Km. Neither are really a country when it comes to infrastructure.


Arguable, as Singapore has a fairly robust internal Military Industry.  A Larger military than Canada with real active Divisions, and a reserve able to activate over 300k personnel and they have equipment for them…


----------



## KevinB

Well the UN made a finding… Russia has committed war crimes in Ukraine, say UN investigators — Guardian US


----------



## Colin Parkinson

KevinB said:


> Arguable, as Singapore has a fairly robust internal Military Industry.  A Larger military than Canada with real active Divisions, and a reserve able to activate over 300k personnel and they have equipment for them…


They would most certainly do a better job of running Canada, than the current lot.


----------



## Kirkhill

AirDet said:


> In context, Denmark has been weening itself off non-renewable energy for decades. NG was never really used much there.



Denmark imports electricity from Norway (Hydro and North Sea Natural Gas), Netherlands (North Sea Natural Gas), Germany (Russian Gas, Brown Coal, Nuclear) and Sweden (Waste Incinerators in the middle of towns).



> Denmark imported *20.1 terawatt hours of electricity in 2021*, up from some 18.6 terawatt hours one year earlier. This represents the highest import reported by the country in more than a decade. Denmark imports electricity from Sweden, Norway, Germany, and the Netherlands.





> The most important figure in the energy balance of Denmark is the total consumption of
> 33.02 billion kWh
> of electric energy per year. Per capita this is an average of *5,638 kWh*.



33.02 billion kWh is 33.02 terawatt hours

If Denmark, population 5,831,000, consumed 33.02 terrawatt hours but imported 20.1 terrawatt hours, or 60% of its electrical needs, how effective is its weaning programme?

The country is about 300 x 300 km and half of that area is under water.


----------



## Kirkhill

Colin Parkinson said:


> They would most certainly do a better job of running Canada, than the current lot.



Denmark would do a better job.


----------



## CBH99

KevinB said:


> Hopefully Vlad takes a bath with his favorite toaster.


Ahem…not to nitpick… but for discreet bathroom assassinations I think SOP is a blow dryer or curling iron.  (Although I guess when your bald, a toaster actually makes more sense than either of those…)


----------



## CBH99

Colin Parkinson said:


> They would most certainly do a better job of running Canada, than the current lot.


My left sock could do a better job than the current lot.


----------



## YZT580

KevinB said:


> Well the UN made a finding… Russia has committed war crimes in Ukraine, say UN investigators — Guardian US


so what?  As far as I know, further action cannot be taken.  They are already sanctioning the economy.


----------



## CBH99

KevinB said:


> Well the UN made a finding… Russia has committed war crimes in Ukraine, say UN investigators — Guardian US


May whatever power there is beyond us look favourably upon those Russian troops who saw their colleagues acting like savages, figured out what was really going on & refused to fight or abandoned post.  

May those who committed these ‘crimes’ (for lack of a better word) burn where they belong.  Slitting throats, executing bound civilians, consistent & horrific sexual violence committed en mass?  

It takes a special kind of people to make the Nazi’s look preferable.  F**k them.


----------



## MilEME09

CBH99 said:


> May whatever power there is beyond us look favourably upon those Russian troops who saw their colleagues acting like savages, figured out what was really going on & refused to fight or abandoned post.
> 
> May those who committed these ‘crimes’ (for lack of a better word) burn where they belong.  Slitting throats, executing bound civilians, consistent & horrific sexual violence committed en mass?
> 
> It takes a special kind of people to make the Nazi’s look preferable.  F**k them.


And yet it will change nothing in the west. The UN is powerless to do anything binding because of russia being on the security council


----------



## Colin Parkinson

MilEME09 said:


> And yet it will change nothing in the west. The UN is powerless to do anything binding because of russia being on the security council


and China


----------



## daftandbarmy

CBH99 said:


> My left sock could do a better job than the current lot.



Is it a fabulous sock?


----------



## Maxman1

CBH99 said:


> May whatever power there is beyond us look favourably upon those Russian troops who saw their colleagues acting like savages, figured out what was really going on & refused to fight or abandoned post.
> 
> May those who committed these ‘crimes’ (for lack of a better word) burn where they belong.  Slitting throats, executing bound civilians, consistent & horrific sexual violence committed en mass?
> 
> It takes a special kind of people to make the Nazi’s look preferable.  F**k them.


----------



## CBH99

daftandbarmy said:


> Is it a fabulous sock?


You think I can afford socks like that??


----------



## CBH99

MilEME09 said:


> And yet it will change nothing in the west. The UN is powerless to do anything binding because of russia being on the security council


_Real question… is there anything that can be done about that?_

Especially if they don’t have the military might we thought they did…and what little they have is noticeably weaker by the day.  



After reading the report in more detail, this wasn’t just a few bad apples.  Nor was it a bad unit amongst good ones.  

This was a clear & blatant disregard for any basic decency.  It was evil.  Pure & simple.  


Imagine living your life & all of a sudden Russian troops show up in your town, murder held the people after torturing, raping, or mutiliating them…then being shipped to some place in Russia where you spend the rest of your life in prison.  

You’re only crime?  Walking down the sidewalk of your own town, in your own country.


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> And yet it will change nothing in the west. The UN is powerless to do anything binding because of russia being on the security council



Revenge is a great recruiter, though. 

It should make it easier to get 'money, guns and ammo' to Ukraine from Western sources, as well as steel the resolve of the Ukrainians themselves to win.


----------



## KevinB

daftandbarmy said:


> Revenge is a great recruiter, though.
> 
> It should make it easier to get 'money, guns and ammo' to Ukraine from Western sources, as well as steel the resolve of the Ukrainians themselves to win.


Bingo. 
  I don’t think anyone expects Jack and/or Shit from the UN beyond a strongly worded condemnation letter.   

However it makes it clearer for those in the Western world as to exactly what Ukraine is facing, and the fact that inflation being the greatest hardship we are facing, it’s a minor issue compared to what Ukraine is enduring.  

Having to put on a warm sweater in the house isn’t exactly the same as having family and countrymen murdered and raped by a vicious regime.

I’m hoping it allows more people to see what Russia has perpetuated, and continued to perpetuate.  Just maybe it will also make some of the Russian leaning countries rethink their allegiance, and make life in Russia a lot more shitty.


----------



## armrdsoul77

CBH99 said:


> Ahem…not to nitpick… but for discreet bathroom assassinations I think SOP is a blow dryer or curling iron.  (Although I guess when your bald, a toaster actually makes more sense than either of those…)


Are these things plug-in?


----------



## Skysix

CBH99 said:


> _Real question… is there anything that can be done about that?_
> 
> Especially if they don’t have the military might we thought they did…and what little they have is noticeably weaker by the day.
> 
> 
> 
> After reading the report in more detail, this wasn’t just a few bad apples.  Nor was it a bad unit amongst good ones.
> 
> This was a clear & blatant disregard for any basic decency.  It was evil.  Pure & simple.
> 
> 
> Imagine living your life & all of a sudden Russian troops show up in your town, murder held the people after torturing, raping, or mutiliating them…then being shipped to some place in Russia where you spend the rest of your life in prison.
> 
> You’re only crime?  Walking down the sidewalk of your own town, in your own country.


You should read the article from (IIRC) The Atlantic entitled "BESPREDEL"

Take that natural organisational culture, Putins directives from above to cause Ukraine to cease to exist, and the Russian view of combat (total war, no rules) and stop thinking they adhere to a western democratic valve system.

ENTIRELY PREDICTABLE.
Can post the text of the article but it is quite long. Some extracts:

They call it bespredel - literally, “no limits.” It means acting outside the rules, violently and with impunity. It translates as “excesses” or “atrocities.” It’s the term Russian soldiers use to describe their actions in Ukraine. "Without bespredel, we’ll get nowhere in Ukraine,” a 21-year-old conscript explained. “We have to be cruel to them. Otherwise, we’ll achieve nothing.” . . . The servicemen say atrocities aren’t directly ordered from above; instead, they result from a Russian military culture that glorifies ardor in battle, portrays the enemy as inhuman and has no effective system of accountability . . . “What kind of human rights can there be in wartime?” said a 31 year old police commando. “It’s fine to violate human rights within certain limits. The main thing is to have them die slowly. You don’t want them to die fast, because a fast death is an easy death.”

In that context removing kids and re-educating them in Siberia somewhere is actually kinder than the alternative. Who wants to leave the next generation of fighters to grow up and seek revenge? Better to kill them now while you can get away with it.

Same-same Afghanistan or Iraq or really any tribally based war







						Bespredel and the Conduct of Russian “Hybrid Operations” | Small Wars Journal
					

Uncertainty has led to a proliferation of definitions for Russian hybrid operations, including such terms as ambiguous warfare, grey warfare, non-conventional warfare, and political warfare.




					smallwarsjournal.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Some really interesting presentations on the Kharkiv offensive

UK Armed Forces Net - 









						Explaining the tactics behind Ukraine's rapid counter-offensive
					

Diversion and Western-style strike tactics have liberated swathes of Russian-held land in the east.




					www.forces.net
				




France 24









						Focus - Ukraine's stunning counter-offensive: Commanders explain Kyiv's military success
					

Ukraine launched a major counter-offensive in the Kharkiv region on September 6. This operation surprised Russia and led to the withdrawal of Russian soldiers from several strategic cities in eastern…




					www.france24.com


----------



## Skysix

RumInt has it that the annexation will be completed on Putin's 70th birthday (Oct 7) so he can celebrate increasing Russia's size etc.
I am hopeful that Ukraine and the west sends suitably appropriate gifts to him or his residence.

If he DOES cause s nuclear accident or an aboveground 'test' on Ukrainian territory or a tactical nuke strike I think a collection of cruise missiles, one from each Nation that opposes Russia's actions, be targeted and launched against his palace on the Black Sea (which will minimise collateral innovent deaths and damage). To penetrate even to the loweest bunkers in order to ensure he recieves the message even if he is not there). And a mass collective launch from not only NATO but everyone else reduced his ability to retailiate against any specific country as being tbe source.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

POW explains how he got to the front and how much training he had


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573561620151746562


----------



## KevinB

Skysix said:


> RumInt has it that the annexation will be completed on Putin's 70th birthday (Oct 7) so he can celebrate increasing Russia's size etc.
> I am hopeful that Ukraine and the west sends suitably appropriate gifts to him or his residence.
> 
> If he DOES cause s nuclear accident or an aboveground 'test' on Ukrainian territory or a tactical nuke strike I think a collection of cruise missiles, one from each Nation that opposes Russia's actions, be targeted and launched against his palace on the Black Sea (which will minimise collateral innovent deaths and damage). To penetrate even to the loweest bunkers in order to ensure he recieves the message even if he is not there). And a mass collective launch from not only NATO but everyone else reduced his ability to retailiate against any specific country as being tbe source.


That isn't how we retaliate.
   When we relatilate we ensure the Enemy cannot do anything like that again.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Colin Parkinson said:


> POW explains how he got to the front and how much training he had
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573561620151746562


This doesn't surprise me in the least, but it's still rather shocking to think that this is SOP for the Russian Army now. 

I hope CACSC is re-writing the Red Team play book for AOC to include press-ganged conscripts using T-55s


----------



## Skysix

KevinB said:


> That isn't how we retaliate.
> When we relatilate we ensure the Enemy cannot do anything like that again.


An attack on a mansion built with stolen state funds is a lot less likely to lead to retaliatory strikes on NATO military facilities than those cruise missiles taking out Russian military targets

Much as I like the use of Thors Hammer to ensure Russia can never again be an agressor state, until the UN Security Council (and UN generally) is fixed, that level of smashing will be very high risk and likely counterproductive to maintaining a near peer relationship with China

Unless of course you are referring to some TLA agencies, ODA's, the Unit, DevGru, SAS/SBS, Wojska Specjalne etc being let off the leash and doing some high level pruning....  That might work.


----------



## Skysix

Fairly competant and current analysis (MA  military historian and former German army armoured recon in a mountain division)


----------



## KevinB

Skysix said:


> An attack on a mansion built with stolen state funds is a lot less likely to lead to retaliatory strikes on NATO military facilities than those cruise missiles taking out Russian military targets
> 
> Much as I like the use of Thors Hammer to ensure Russia can never again be an agressor state, until the UN Security Council (and UN generally) is fixed, that level of smashing will be very high risk and likely counterproductive to maintaining a near peer relationship with China
> 
> Unless of course you are referring to some TLA agencies, ODA's, the Unit, DevGru, SAS/SBS, Wojska Specjalne etc being let off the leash and doing some high level pruning....  That might work.


Precision Strikes, with Naval, Air, and Ground assets to remove the Nuclear Saber, that then allows unfettered pruning. 

The idea that one can play tit for tat with Nuclear Arsenals is the sort of brinkmanship that I personally don’t think it’s wise, nor is it in our playbook.


----------



## daftandbarmy




----------



## rmc_wannabe

daftandbarmy said:


> View attachment 73784


I have a buddy on UNIFIER 2.0 . The dudes they're training are pretty much brand new recruits. The ones you see kicking ass in Kherson and Khariv are the ones we trained or were trained by the ones we trained on UNIFIER 1.0 . 

I'm certain that training saved lives in the first salvo.


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> An attack on a mansion built with stolen state funds is a lot less likely to lead to retaliatory strikes on NATO military facilities than those cruise missiles taking out Russian military targets
> 
> Much as I like the use of Thors Hammer to ensure Russia can never again be an agressor state, until the UN Security Council (and UN generally) is fixed, that level of smashing will be very high risk and likely counterproductive to maintaining a near peer relationship with China
> 
> Unless of course you are referring to some TLA agencies, ODA's, the Unit, DevGru, SAS/SBS, Wojska Specjalne etc being let off the leash and doing some high level pruning....  That might work.



Dammed unsporting though.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Here comes the mud









						Colonelcassad
					

Американский бронетранспортер International MaxxPro оказался бессилен перед украинской распутицей👍😁




					t.me
				












						Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны
					

‼️🇺🇦🏴‍☠️Херсонщина завалена сожжённой техникой НАТО: колонна голландских БМП YPR-765 ВСУ проезжает мимо разбитой колонны из таких же YPR-765 у села Андреевка t.me/RVvoenkor




					t.me


----------



## suffolkowner

Colin Parkinson said:


> Here comes the mud
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Colonelcassad
> 
> 
> Американский бронетранспортер International MaxxPro оказался бессилен перед украинской распутицей👍😁
> 
> 
> 
> 
> t.me
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны
> 
> 
> ‼️🇺🇦🏴‍☠️Херсонщина завалена сожжённой техникой НАТО: колонна голландских БМП YPR-765 ВСУ проезжает мимо разбитой колонны из таких же YPR-765 у села Андреевка t.me/RVvoenkor
> 
> 
> 
> 
> t.me


who does this hurt more?


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> who does this hurt more?


Ukrainians on the offensive, mud season means sticking closer to roads, but it also means Russia has a hard time retreating. Both sides will adapt but things may slow until the ground freezes.


----------



## Kirkhill

Mobilization seems to be problematic.



> Vladimir Putin’s draft order is cause of Russian protests, officials admit​Demonstrators clash with police amid reports of recruiters handing draft notices to the elderly, the ill and men with no military background
> 
> ByRoland Oliphant, SENIOR FOREIGN CORRESPONDENT25 September 2022 • 6:23pm
> 
> 
> Police officers haul away a female demonstrator during protests in Moscow at the weekend CREDIT: AFP
> Vladimir Putin's allies have criticised the way in which civilians are being conscripted to fight in Ukraine as villagers blocked off a motorway to stop men being taken to the front lines.
> On the fifth day of the mobilisation drive, demonstrators clashed with police across the country.
> Russian social media channels have been flooded with reports of recruiters handing draft notices to men with no military background, or forcing elderly and sick veterans back into service.
> Authorities have tried to suppress news of protests with riot police. Rights groups said on Sunday that 2,000 people had been arrested across the country since Wednesday.
> The speakers of Russia’s upper and lower houses of parliament on Sunday both acknowledged public disquiet, but blamed the backlash on lower-level officials for mismanagement rather than the mobilisation order itself.
> 
> “Such excesses are absolutely unacceptable. And, I consider it absolutely right that they are triggering a sharp reaction in society,” said Valentina Matvienko, the speaker of the Federation Council, Russia’s upper house.
> In an apparent attempt to deflect blame from the Kremlin, she said that governors of Russia’s 85 federal regions held “full responsibility” for implementing the order, and that they must “ensure the implementation of partial mobilisation is carried out in full and absolute compliance with the outlined criteria. Without a single mistake.”
> Vyacheslav Volodin, speaker of the State Duma, said “complaints are being received” and that “if a mistake is made, it is necessary to correct it”.
> Valeriy Fadeev, the Russian government’s human rights ombudsman, on Saturday wrote to Sergei Shoigu, the defence minister, expressing concern over multiple violations, including the drafting of 70 fathers of large families and nurses without military skills.
> Meanwhile, Margarita Simonyan, the head of the state-owned Russia Today media group and one of Mr Putin’s most reliable propagandists, posted a series of reports of violations on her own Telegram channel.
> They included the case of a 63-year old retired lieutenant colonel with diabetes who was called back to service and a doctor with no previous military experience who was told he would have to operate a grenade launcher.
> The interventions by Ms Simonyan and others reflect acknowledgment within the elite that forced conscription will prove massively unpopular.
> A major highway in the North Caucasus republic of Dagestan was blocked by locals refusing to allow their men to be mobilised. Gunshots could be heard, which witnesses said were fired in the air by police officers trying to disperse the crowd.
> In Makhachkala, the largest city in Dagestan, mostly female crowds were filmed chanting “no war!” as they tried to block police cars in the street and chased away a lone officer.
> 
> In the East Siberian city of Yakutsk, a crowd made up mostly of women surrounded a group of policemen on the central square and chanted “let our children be free” and “give us back our grandfathers”.
> Putin announced “partial mobilisation” in a televised address on Wednesday morning, saying the move was necessary because Russia was under attack by the West.
> He explicitly promised during the speech that only those with prior military experience would be drafted. Sergei Shoigu, the defence minister, said the army was seeking to recruit just 300,000 men.
> But the decree published after his speech made no mention of the word partial and independent Russian media outlets have reported a censored clause which allows the ministry of defence to draft up to one million men. The Kremlin has denied those reports.
> The Russian government will also move to ban men of military age from leaving the country next week, Meduza, an independent Russian news outlet, reported, citing two sources close to the presidential administration. Airline tickets have sold out and miles-long tailbacks have appeared at land borders since Wednesday as men attempt to flee.
> There have been widespread reports of indiscipline and heavy drinking amongst those who have been drafted. One video posted by a mobilised soldier in the far east showed drunken men staggering along an airbase runway. One of them went to sleep in the grass.
> Police in the Belgorod region said they were looking for a draftee who escaped from a training base by stealing a truck. He was reported to have taken with him a Kalashnikov assault rifle and 120 rounds of ammunition.











						Vladimir Putin’s draft order is cause of Russian protests, officials admit
					

Demonstrators clash with police amid reports of recruiters handing draft notices to the elderly, the ill and men with no military background




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## Kirkhill

Use us for combat zone tests, Ukraine minister tells US war industry
					

Ukraine's deputy defense minister suggested anti-tank systems with a 6-kilometer range or suicide drones as options his military could use.




					www.militarytimes.com
				






> Havrylov pointed to the Javelin surface-to-air, shoulder-fired missile as an example. Early in the conflict scores of Javelin shipments sent to the war helped Ukrainians destroy even modernized Russian tanks.
> 
> However, the missile has its limits, chiefly range.
> 
> And Russians took note.
> 
> “It’s all about anti-tank systems with a range of up to 5 kilometers,” he said. “Javelin is okay but is only has a range of 2.5 kilometers. Russia stopped closing to us in less than 5 kilometers.”











						Explaining the tactics behind Ukraine's rapid counter-offensive
					

Diversion and Western-style strike tactics have liberated swathes of Russian-held land in the east.




					www.forces.net
				






> *Light strike*​Punching in behind enemy lines with smaller, faster, wheeled and often civilian vehicles, Ukraine was then able to set ambushes, report enemy movement and use said vehicles as ambulances.
> 
> This is called Light Strike, and Mr Spencer believes the wisdom was imparted by Western forces but perfected by Ukraine in the counter-offensive.
> 
> "This wasn't checkers, it was three-dimensional chess," said the expert, likening the intelligence-driven attack to an evolution of the Blitzkrieg method.
> 
> Once the line is penetrated, heavier units can join to exploit it.



Are these to things linked?

Russia takes a beating inside 2.5 km.  Decides not to close to within 5 km.  This leaves more gaps between BTGs.  Ukraine then exploits the gaps on the dispersed battlefield by employing Light Strike units in Chenoweths, etc.



So how many infantry soldiers does it take to close the gaps between BTGs that won't close within 5 km of the enemy?

Adaptive Dispersed Operations?

IIRC the picture is from the 7th Ligth Infantry Division in the 1980s before they got their Strykers.


----------



## KevinB

The FAV @Kirkhill is an interesting piece of kit. 
  It was original a SMU desert patrol/raid vehicle, and the adoption by the Light Forces wasn’t really well thought out. 

I’ve ridden in one, the M2 is entirely unusable/impractical on it, the platform rock makes it inaccurate and a waste. As well not enough ammo could be carried for it to make it useful even if the gun had been able to be stabilized. 
  The M60 was about the heaviest MG one could employ on it. Even then the three man crew took up most of the weight - and no real space/weight was available for anything beyond 24hrs. 

Modern Side by Side’s have much more load carriage - and Polaris has made some dedicated SOF oriented systems that are designed for weapons platforms to make the use of a M2/M3, GAU-19, GMG etc useful - as well as a method to carry ready ammo. 

They still don’t have the range or load carriage as the GMVW Hummer (or it’s replacement the Flyer 72), not can they do Cas Evac on stretcher borne pets so one needs to run a mixed fleet to ensure mission support/success.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Kirkhill said:


> Use us for combat zone tests, Ukraine minister tells US war industry
> 
> 
> Ukraine's deputy defense minister suggested anti-tank systems with a 6-kilometer range or suicide drones as options his military could use.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.militarytimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Explaining the tactics behind Ukraine's rapid counter-offensive
> 
> 
> Diversion and Western-style strike tactics have liberated swathes of Russian-held land in the east.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.forces.net
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Are these to things linked?
> 
> Russia takes a beating inside 2.5 km.  Decides not to close to within 5 km.  This leaves more gaps between BTGs.  Ukraine then exploits the gaps on the dispersed battlefield by employing Light Strike units in Chenoweths, etc.
> 
> View attachment 73815
> 
> So how many infantry soldiers does it take to close the gaps between BTGs that won't close within 5 km of the enemy?
> 
> Adaptive Dispersed Operations?
> 
> IIRC the picture is from the 7th Ligth Infantry Division in the 1980s before they got their Strykers.


I think like Napoleon, Blitzkrieg, and the Gulf War; the Ukrainian Counter-Offensive will be studied by many mitary strategists of the future. 

The massive use of UAV sensors, using mounted Light Infantry in a traditional cavalry role to exploit gaps, and the massive use of "shoot and scoot" artillery systems will be a playbook for modern armies to follow to counter an enemy with superior numbers and is heavily armoured.


----------



## CBH99

KevinB said:


> The FAV @Kirkhill is an interesting piece of kit.
> It was original a SMU desert patrol/raid vehicle, and the adoption by the Light Forces wasn’t really well thought out.
> 
> I’ve ridden in one, the M2 is entirely unusable/impractical on it, the platform rock makes it inaccurate and a waste. As well not enough ammo could be carried for it to make it useful even if the gun had been able to be stabilized.
> The M60 was about the heaviest MG one could employ on it. Even then the three man crew took up most of the weight - and no real space/weight was available for anything beyond 24hrs.
> 
> Modern Side by Side’s have much more load carriage - and Polaris has made some dedicated SOF oriented systems that are designed for weapons platforms to make the use of a M2/M3, GAU-19, GMG etc useful - as well as a method to carry ready ammo.
> 
> They still don’t have the range or load carriage as the GMVW Hummer (or it’s replacement the Flyer 72), not can they do Cas Evac on stretcher borne pets so one needs to run a mixed fleet to ensure mission support/success.


I've been out for a while now, and this is the first time I've thought of this.

But are modern ATGM's & the GMG comparable in weight at all?


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> The FAV @Kirkhill is an interesting piece of kit.
> It was original a SMU desert patrol/raid vehicle, and the adoption by the Light Forces wasn’t really well thought out.
> 
> I’ve ridden in one, the M2 is entirely unusable/impractical on it, the platform rock makes it inaccurate and a waste. As well not enough ammo could be carried for it to make it useful even if the gun had been able to be stabilized.
> The M60 was about the heaviest MG one could employ on it. Even then the three man crew took up most of the weight - and no real space/weight was available for anything beyond 24hrs.
> 
> Modern Side by Side’s have much more load carriage - and Polaris has made some dedicated SOF oriented systems that are designed for weapons platforms to make the use of a M2/M3, GAU-19, GMG etc useful - as well as a method to carry ready ammo.
> 
> They still don’t have the range or load carriage as the GMVW Hummer (or it’s replacement the Flyer 72), not can they do Cas Evac on stretcher borne pets so one needs to run a mixed fleet to ensure mission support/success.




The MRZR and the ISV both share common ancestry with the Chenoweth - in concept and utility.  The old Chenoweth was the poster child for the "too light to fight" crowd.  Times change - along with circumstances, battlefields and technologies.


----------



## KevinB

CBH99 said:


> I've been out for a while now, and this is the first time I've thought of this.
> 
> But are modern ATGM's & the GMG comparable in weight at all?


The issue was more the suspension and roll bar on the FAV where designed for the Civilian off road role - not a Military one. 
   So the idea of mounting a weapon was not the original goal - nor was ammunition etc. 

It’s not simply weight  or space. But Military needs have additional amounts of those compared to civilian, as few civilian requirements have ammunition and other Mil consumables.


----------



## CBH99

KevinB said:


> The issue was more the suspension and roll bar on the FAV where designed for the Civilian off road role - not a Military one.
> So the idea of mounting a weapon was not the original goal - nor was ammunition etc.
> 
> It’s not simply weight  or space. But Military needs have additional amounts of those compared to civilian, as few civilian requirements have ammunition and other Mil consumables.


True 

I was visualizing you riding around on the FAN but the GMG replaced by some sort of modern ATGM, and was wondering if that could be a possible tool to add to the toolkit.   

Then I had a coffee & realized I was talking about vehicles & weapon systems that don’t make sense in the same timeline 😴 ☕️


----------



## Colin Parkinson

KevinB said:


> The FAV @Kirkhill is an interesting piece of kit.
> It was original a SMU desert patrol/raid vehicle, and the adoption by the Light Forces wasn’t really well thought out.
> 
> I’ve ridden in one, the M2 is entirely unusable/impractical on it, the platform rock makes it inaccurate and a waste. As well not enough ammo could be carried for it to make it useful even if the gun had been able to be stabilized.
> The M60 was about the heaviest MG one could employ on it. Even then the three man crew took up most of the weight - and no real space/weight was available for anything beyond 24hrs.
> 
> Modern Side by Side’s have much more load carriage - and Polaris has made some dedicated SOF oriented systems that are designed for weapons platforms to make the use of a M2/M3, GAU-19, GMG etc useful - as well as a method to carry ready ammo.
> 
> They still don’t have the range or load carriage as the GMVW Hummer (or it’s replacement the Flyer 72), not can they do Cas Evac on stretcher borne pets so one needs to run a mixed fleet to ensure mission support/success.


Saw lots of them down in Ft Lewis and Yakima, they were busy killing people in them as they rolled over easily with the M2 on top.


----------



## Kirkhill

Colin Parkinson said:


> Saw lots of them down in Ft Lewis and Yakima, they were busy killing people in them as they rolled over easily with the M2 on top.



Did they roll as easily as TAPVs?


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Kirkhill said:


> Did they roll as easily as TAPVs?


More so as the were fast and nippy and as Kevin mentioned way overloaded. Top heavy vehicles were always a thing in the Army, the M38 with the 106 killed a reservist out here in late 70's /early 80's. the 5/4 ton with box was prone to flopping on it's side and I saw one on it's ass with the nose sticking into the air.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Interesting AD combo

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574380075046273025


----------



## Kirkhill

Colin Parkinson said:


> More so as the were fast and nippy and as Kevin mentioned way overloaded. Top heavy vehicles were always a thing in the Army, the M38 with the 106 killed a reservist out here in late 70's /early 80's. the 5/4 ton with box was prone to flopping on it's side and I saw one on it's ass with the nose sticking into the air.



The issue lies very close to home on this site.

Sailors and soldiers have different appreciations for the principles of the lever and the effects of a small mass on a long lever.


----------



## GK .Dundas

Colin Parkinson said:


> More so as the were fast and nippy and as Kevin mentioned way overloaded. Top heavy vehicles were always a thing in the Army, the M38 with the 106 killed a reservist out here in late 70's /early 80's. the 5/4 ton with box was prone to flopping on it's side and I saw one on it's ass with the nose sticking into the air.


One of our  troop commanders managed over the course of a weekend exercise in Shilo to be in no less then four seperate rollovers on 4 different vehicles.
As I recall it was mix of 68 and 74 pattern jeeps.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Colin Parkinson said:


> Interesting AD combo
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574380075046273025



There's a great template for any modern military ....


----------



## KevinB

Meanwhile the draft going well...

A drafted man has set himself on fire and started screaming that he did not want to go to the front at a bus station in Russia’s Ryazan, report YA62.ru and Novaya Gazeta. Ryazan.

Novaya Gazeta. Ryazan has published a video of the incident. In the video, the man is seen walking out to the bus station parking lot, douse himself with an unknown liquid, and start catching fire.









						Новая газета Европа
					

Говорим как есть. Пишем о происходящем в России, Украине и Европе. Новости, аналитика, мнения экспертов, специальные репортажи и журналистские расследования.




					novayagazeta.eu


----------



## Kirkhill

Colin Parkinson said:


> Interesting AD combo
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574380075046273025



@Colin Parkinson and @daftandbarmy

Did either of you see this firepower demonstration in the comments?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522299264654843907
Edit to add the right link.


----------



## OldSolduer

KevinB said:


> Meanwhile the draft going well...
> 
> A drafted man has set himself on fire and started screaming that he did not want to go to the front at a bus station in Russia’s Ryazan, report YA62.ru and Novaya Gazeta. Ryazan.
> 
> Novaya Gazeta. Ryazan has published a video of the incident. In the video, the man is seen walking out to the bus station parking lot, douse himself with an unknown liquid, and start catching fire.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Новая газета Европа
> 
> 
> Говорим как есть. Пишем о происходящем в России, Украине и Европе. Новости, аналитика, мнения экспертов, специальные репортажи и журналистские расследования.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> novayagazeta.eu


Dedication to a cause. The Buddhist monks did similar things in Vietnam albeit for a different cause/reason.


----------



## KevinB

OldSolduer said:


> Dedication to a cause. The Buddhist monks did similar things in Vietnam albeit for a different cause/reason.


Makes a heck of a statement...


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> Meanwhile the draft going well...
> 
> A drafted man has set himself on fire and started screaming that he did not want to go to the front at a bus station in Russia’s Ryazan, report YA62.ru and Novaya Gazeta. Ryazan.
> 
> Novaya Gazeta. Ryazan has published a video of the incident. In the video, the man is seen walking out to the bus station parking lot, douse himself with an unknown liquid, and start catching fire.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Новая газета Европа
> 
> 
> Говорим как есть. Пишем о происходящем в России, Украине и Европе. Новости, аналитика, мнения экспертов, специальные репортажи и журналистские расследования.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> novayagazeta.eu



Hell no, I won't go....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574288742961012736


----------



## OldSolduer

daftandbarmy said:


> Hell no, I won't go....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574288742961012736


Well commissars are a dime a dozen - mind you the young fellow did send a message.


----------



## KevinB

daftandbarmy said:


> Hell no, I won't go....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574288742961012736


A lot of fires being set too -- apparently Russia only has paper copies of the Draft Records - so torching the Mobilization offices wrecks the records.


----------



## Skysix

Hmmm . . . Perhaps Putin is eliminating potential threats as he looks at probable reactions to a failed SMO


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> Mobilization seems to be problematic.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Vladimir Putin’s draft order is cause of Russian protests, officials admit
> 
> 
> Demonstrators clash with police amid reports of recruiters handing draft notices to the elderly, the ill and men with no military background
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.telegraph.co.uk


We tend to believe the sound bite of 300k but the actual fine print of the law is between 1.2 and 1.4 million


----------



## KevinB

Summary of gear seized from RuAF by Ukraine 








						Hundreds of Russian vehicles, weapon systems seized during Kharkiv counterattack
					

Ukraine’s successful counterattack in Kharkiv was important in many ways. The armed forces liberated a vast territory, inflicted serious damage to Russian formations there and sent Russian morale plummeting, as Ukrainian spirit soared. But it also brought a big haul




					kyivindependent.com


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> Summary of gear seized from RuAF by Ukraine
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hundreds of Russian vehicles, weapon systems seized during Kharkiv counterattack
> 
> 
> Ukraine’s successful counterattack in Kharkiv was important in many ways. The armed forces liberated a vast territory, inflicted serious damage to Russian formations there and sent Russian morale plummeting, as Ukrainian spirit soared. But it also brought a big haul
> 
> 
> 
> 
> kyivindependent.com





> “For battlefield use, I would rate infantry fighting vehicles (BMPs, etc) as the most important, tanks second, artillery after that,” said Janovsky. “Relatively speaking, Ukraine has a reasonable number of tanks, but it needs more IFVs — especially to equip their new units.”
> 
> “(BMP-2s) are pretty decent vehicles when it comes to the current situation on the battlefield,”



That'll give heart to some folks on here...


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> That'll give heart to some folks on here...


They have captured so much some of their mechanized brigades are now armoured brigades, and they have independent tank battalions on various parts of the front. In total from open source maps I have counted 37 Ukrainian brigades, and 3 independent tank battalions. Not including the Marines, TDF or foreign legion. That is a heck of a force.


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> That'll give heart to some folks on here...


I'm not sure his comments are being taken correctly though as the UKR have a deficiency in IFV's, which due to the Russian Artillery are nice to have when moving your Infantry around -- plus the 30mm cannon and ATGM are always welcome.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Want one of those coins....


----------



## TacticalTea

17 dead, 24 wounded in school shooting in Russia
		


False flag to support the ''Nazis!'' narrative? Potential conscript losing his mind?

At any rate, this seems unusual for Russia.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

P


TacticalTea said:


> 17 dead, 24 wounded in school shooting in Russia
> 
> 
> 
> False flag to support the ''Nazis!'' narrative? Potential conscript losing his mind?
> 
> At any rate, this seems unusual for Russia.


Unusual? Yes.

Improbable? Not in the least 

Russia is quickly sliding back into its old pattern of life. People are desperate, hungry, and quickly becoming reactive to the hell they find themselves in due to Western Sanctions and the mobilization.

Doesn't matter if it was a random psycho, disgruntled draft dodger, recent survivor from the front, or God knows what; it's a tragedy that has been sewn by Putin et al because of the SMO.

I feel for the kids and their parents, but this is very much not a shock any more than when it happens in the US.


----------



## TacticalTea

rmc_wannabe said:


> P
> 
> Unusual? Yes.
> 
> Improbable? Not in the least
> 
> Russia is quickly sliding back into its old pattern of life. People are desperate, hungry, and quickly becoming reactive to the hell they find themselves in due to Western Sanctions and the mobilization.


I'm familiar with this part, and the suicide epidemic that it carries with it. Hadn't noticed, however, that it also leads to mass shootings over there.


rmc_wannabe said:


> Doesn't matter if it was a random psycho, disgruntled draft dodger, recent survivor from the front, or God knows what; it's a tragedy that has been sewn by Putin et al because of the SMO.
> 
> I feel for the kids and their parents, but this is very much not a shock any more than when it happens in the US.


Indeed, about 0.49 killed in mass shootings per million American, VS 0.41 per million Russian. (Based on this 2020-2022 data for USA and Russia)


----------



## brihard

TacticalTea said:


> 17 dead, 24 wounded in school shooting in Russia
> 
> 
> 
> False flag to support the ''Nazis!'' narrative? Potential conscript losing his mind?
> 
> At any rate, this seems unusual for Russia.


That’s awful. There’s a fair bit of video online, including of what looks like the shooter, dead.

No matter the larger geopolitical situation, these are vents are always simply terrible. Kids are kids, parents are parents, and first responders are first responders. I feel for everyone involved.


----------



## Remius

KevinB said:


> Meanwhile the draft going well...
> 
> A drafted man has set himself on fire and started screaming that he did not want to go to the front at a bus station in Russia’s Ryazan, report YA62.ru and Novaya Gazeta. Ryazan.
> 
> Novaya Gazeta. Ryazan has published a video of the incident. In the video, the man is seen walking out to the bus station parking lot, douse himself with an unknown liquid, and start catching fire.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Новая газета Европа
> 
> 
> Говорим как есть. Пишем о происходящем в России, Украине и Европе. Новости, аналитика, мнения экспертов, специальные репортажи и журналистские расследования.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> novayagazeta.eu


I prefer what this guy did to protest.



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-enlistment-troops-resistance-ukraine-1.6596621


----------



## daftandbarmy

Remius said:


> I prefer what this guy did to protest.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-enlistment-troops-resistance-ukraine-1.6596621



Glass half full: his weapon was in good order


----------



## Remius

daftandbarmy said:


> Glass half full: his weapon was in good order


PWT waiver.

Oh wait, most of these conscripts will be be getting a pile of waivers I think.


----------



## KevinB

daftandbarmy said:


> Glass half full: his weapon was in good order


Glass more full, he used it effectively against the enemy 
   Hopefully he gets emulated, A LOT


----------



## Kirkhill

On top of rusty rifles....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574476679539527680


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> On top of rusty rifles....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574476679539527680


Suddenly that 24h survival in Latvia is looking a little longer....


----------



## MilEME09

Next time an infanteer says a M72 is useless


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574447485023670273


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> Next time an infanteer says a M72 is useless
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574447485023670273



Shooting M72s through trees... must have prayed before the op


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Next time an infanteer says a M72 is useless
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574447485023670273


Useless as an AT weapon yes.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> On top of rusty rifles....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574476679539527680


Unreal - these poor buggers standing against the wall must be thinking - 'We are totally f*cked, they're telling me that I need to bring my own sleeping bag, my own medicine, my own bandages, to steal my wife's tampons so I don't bleed out.'


----------



## daftandbarmy

Czech_pivo said:


> Unreal - these poor buggers standing against the wall must be thinking - 'We are totally f*cked, they telling me that I need to bring my own sleeping bag, my own medicine, my own bandages, to steal my wife's tampons so I don't bleed out.'



The comments were a good reminder about why you shouldn't use tampons for wound dressings.


----------



## Czech_pivo

daftandbarmy said:


> The comments were a good reminder about why you shouldn't use tampons for wound dressings.


I just went over this and read that info - wow, had no idea but makes perfect sense. Thanks for pointing this out to me (and others?), much appreciated Sir!


----------



## QV

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/nord-stream-pipeline-damage-1.6597069
		


Here wo go!


----------



## Czech_pivo

QV said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/nord-stream-pipeline-damage-1.6597069
> 
> 
> 
> Here wo go!


Am I right in assuming that a submersible planting some sort of explosive device was the most likely culprit?  I imagine that an aircraft - helo or fixed wing could do this as well but that would draw unwanted attention to the event.

Have to wonder if this was an implied threat to the underwater high speed internet cables.


----------



## Lumber

Czech_pivo said:


> Am I right in assuming that a submersible planting some sort of explosive device was the most likely culprit?  I imagine that an aircraft - helo or fixed wing could do this as well but that would draw unwanted attention to the event.
> 
> Have to wonder if this was an implied threat to the underwater high speed internet cables.


I think it would also be very difficult to accurately hit a submarine cable with an air/helo dropped weapon.

Also, I'm not aware of any weapons that are designed to be launched from aircraft/helos and impact the bottom. Torpedoes wouldn't work... does anyone still have any depth chargers kicking around?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Lumber said:


> I think it would also be very difficult to accurately hit a submarine cable with an air/helo dropped weapon.
> 
> Also, I'm not aware of any weapons that are designed to be launched from aircraft/helos and impact the bottom. Torpedoes wouldn't work... does anyone still have any depth chargers kicking around?



The Russian Navy is running an anti-sub type exercise in the Baltic this week. Coincidence?

Russian Navy’s Baltic Fleet ships hunt down enemy subs​September 20, 2022, by Fatima Bahtić

*Russian Navy’s Aleksin and Kabardino-Balkariya small anti-submarine ships have practiced searching, detecting and eliminating mock enemy submarines within bipartite command exercise held in the naval training areas of the Baltic Fleet.*

Baltic Naval Base’s small anti-submarine ships have practiced searching, detecting, sustaining contact and tracking, as well as countering mock enemy submarines using anti-submarine weaponry.









						Russian Navy's Baltic Fleet ships hunt down enemy subs
					

Russian Navy's Aleksin and Kabardino-Balkariya small anti-submarine ships have practiced searching, detecting and eliminating mock enemy submarines within bipartite command exercise held in the naval training areas of the Baltic Fleet.




					www.navaltoday.com


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Czech_pivo said:


> Am I right in assuming that a submersible planting some sort of explosive device was the most likely culprit?  I imagine that an aircraft - helo or fixed wing could do this as well but that would draw unwanted attention to the event.
> 
> Have to wonder if this was an implied threat to the underwater high speed internet cables.




70m of water just outside the 12NM limit of Danish Territorial Waters.








__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1490792461979078662


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574633113598283777


----------



## MilEME09

If Russia deliberately destroyed the pipeline , would that be a case for article 5? Or arleast article 7?


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> If Russia deliberately destroyed the pipeline , would that be a case for article 5? Or arleast article 7?


What if it was the Americans who destroyed the pipeline?


----------



## GR66

Czech_pivo said:


> What if it was the Americans who destroyed the pipeline?


What if it just leaks because it's a piece of crap like everything else the 2SSR makes?


----------



## brihard

After a couple days of relative quiet by the better OSINT aggregators, looks like there‘s a real possibility of an imminent or actual Russian encirclement at Lyman. Ukraine seems to have broken through on an axis from Oskil to Nove, cutting access from the north, and there’s increasing chatter about a move from the south on Kreminna and Tors’ke. 

I don’t have any sense of how many troops Russia’s still holding this pocket with, but they’ve been holding Lyman for quite some time so they’re probably decent forced by Russian standards, unless Russia RIPs out its better troops and rotates in some junk as a rearguard to delay.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574816455526424582

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574836722197827610


----------



## KevinB

Russian competence 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574752394507952129


----------



## Kirkhill

I guess the Russians are relying on muscle memory.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574721960281513990
Buddy doesn't sound as if he is recommending mobilization as a career move.


----------



## brihard

KevinB said:


> Russian competence
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574752394507952129


That’s a hell of an ND


----------



## Kirkhill

The Reserves


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574652525172723717

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574860237508644871


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Kirkhill said:


> The Reserves
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574652525172723717
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574860237508644871


I.... wow.... you can see the defeat in their eyes already


----------



## Kirkhill

Looking at the living conditions of the Russians...

Wait for the end.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574786422275457027


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> Looking at the living conditions of the Russians...
> 
> Wait for the end.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574786422275457027


I've shot through trees like that, I wouldn't recommend them as cover from fire...


----------



## KevinB

I can't vouch for the authenticity of the translation - but I did LOL.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574865224108220423


----------



## Kirkhill

JaysusfeckinHchristandallhissaints!

I'm too important, old and fat.  And I'm a muscovite.

There are lots of, what was it?, pedophiles, perverts, street musicians, art students and millions of ethnic minorities who can take my place?

Who was the propaganda genius that served him?   

I think the war just got shorter.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

KevinB said:


> I can't vouch for the authenticity of the translation - but I did LOL.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574865224108220423


I was just told it's not true. So sad as I would laugh my ass off if that vile piece of crap was sent to the Front.


----------



## McG

Kirkhill said:


> … millions of ethnic minorities who can take my place?


He said the quiet part out loud. This mobilization is as much an ethnic cleansing tool as it is an effort to colonize Ukraine. Use the domestic ethnics to kill the foreign ethnics and the the motherland becomes more pure Russian. The next evolution will soon be conscription in the areas that Russia is now declaring annexed.


----------



## Good2Golf

brihard said:


> That’s a hell of an ND


Yeah, even if it didn’t get up to its terminal velocity of 6,100 km/h (!!!), the 57E6M (SA-22) missile packs a punch…25kg HE! 😳


----------



## daftandbarmy

Evil genius at work...









						Ukraine war: Russia to open war enlisting hub on Georgia border
					

Massive queues have formed as men desperately try to flee Russia to avoid being sent to fight in Ukraine.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## Quirky

KevinB said:


> I can't vouch for the authenticity of the translation - but I did LOL.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574865224108220423


Translation is way off.


----------



## MilEME09

This made my day


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574797179759247360


----------



## TacticalTea

GR66 said:


> What if it just leaks because it's a piece of crap like everything else the 2SSR makes?


From what I've read and heard; sudden, not gradual pressure drop on both NS1 and NS2.

No, not an accident. Our allies have already come out stating the leaks appear to be the result of a deliberate attack.

Also, someone mentioned Russian exercise in the region: unlikely that USA would pick that timing to operate kinetically underwater. What does USA gain from bombing a gas line that's already inop, risk further destabilizing Europe, and potentially cause an environmental disaster on their newest Scandinavian allies' shores?

The ''Germany has control'' comment is nothing more than usual journalistic incompetence. NS2 is a joint venture with Gazprom as bare majority shareholder (51%).

Reminder from wikipedia:


> On 31 August 2022, Gazprom halted any gas delivery through North Stream 1 for three days, officially because of maintenance.[61] On 2 September 2022, the company announced that natural gas supplies via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline would remain shut off indefinitely until the main gas turbine at the Portovaya compressor station near St Petersburg was fixed from an engine oil leak.[62] Gazprom justified this claiming that European Union sanctions against Russia have resulted in technical problems preventing it being able to provide the full volume of contracted gas through the pipeline; Siemens Energy, which maintains the turbine, rejected this and stated that there are no legal obstacles to its provision of maintenance for the pipeline.


It appears that Russia had already given up on NS1/2. Blowing it up might be a demonstration that they will not shy from attacking our pipelines and critical communication cables, and may serve internal propaganda purposes. On the energy front, Russia holds the bigger end of the stick, and that end is only getting bigger as winter approaches.

I'm happy to hear counter-arguments, I'm not taking the American side just because it's our side, I just don't see any reason for the false flag idea to be true, and defaulting to the Russian version for the sake contrarianism doesn't make any more sense.



brihard said:


> After a couple days of relative quiet by the better OSINT aggregators, looks like there‘s a real possibility of an imminent or actual Russian encirclement at Lyman. Ukraine seems to have broken through on an axis from Oskil to Nove, cutting access from the north, and there’s increasing chatter about a move from the south on Kreminna and Tors’ke.
> 
> I don’t have any sense of how many troops Russia’s still holding this pocket with, but they’ve been holding Lyman for quite some time so they’re probably decent forced by Russian standards, unless Russia RIPs out its better troops and rotates in some junk as a rearguard to delay.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574816455526424582
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574836722197827610


My understanding is that it's 5-10 BTGs in Lyman, Russians very much making a pitched effort to stop the Ukrainian advance. Ukrainians taking it slowly, which seems to be their typical approach to cities, akin to their advance in the Kherson area.


----------



## CBH99

KevinB said:


> Russian competence
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574752394507952129


Maybe the Russians managed to recruit some of our former ANA partners to help them out… that aim looks familiar


----------



## Kirkhill

CBH99 said:


> Maybe the Russians managed to recruit some of our former ANA partners to help them out… that aim looks familiar


Maybe the Russians can get the Taliban to sell them a few M1117s.


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575005763797499905


----------



## Halifax Tar

KevinB said:


> I've shot through trees like that, I wouldn't recommend them as cover from fire...



I've seen trees felled by x 2 rounds of .30-06. 

Trees are not the cover people think they are.  Thank you Call of Duty lol


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> This made my day
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574797179759247360


Its the old Soviet mentality still holding true - 'they pretend to pay us and we pretend to work'.


----------



## The Bread Guy

You KNOW the referenda must be "legit" when even Serbia says, "yeah, uh, no ...."








						Serbia won't recognise results of Russia's referendums in Ukraine - Vucic
					

Serbia will not recognise the results of referendums held in four regions of Ukraine partly occupied by Russian forces, President Aleksandar Vucic said on Wednesday, despite Belgrade's warm ties with Moscow.




					www.reuters.com
				











						Serbia Rules Out Recognizing Russian Referendum in Occupied Ukraine
					

With a clear eye on Kosovo, Foreign Minister Selakovic said Belgrade could not recognize referendums that violate Serbia's 'policy of preserving territorial integrity and sovereignty'.




					balkaninsight.com
				











						Balkan Ally Serbia Says It Won't Recognize Russia's Staged Votes In Occupied Ukraine
					

Russian ally Serbia has said it won't recognize the current votes in Russian-held parts of Ukraine that Kyiv has called "sham" referendums, dealing another international blow to the Kremlin's hastily organized effort at consolidating early gains in its 7-month-old invasion.




					www.rferl.org


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> You KNOW the referenda must be "legit" when even Serbia says, "yeah, uh, no ...."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Serbia won't recognise results of Russia's referendums in Ukraine - Vucic
> 
> 
> Serbia will not recognise the results of referendums held in four regions of Ukraine partly occupied by Russian forces, President Aleksandar Vucic said on Wednesday, despite Belgrade's warm ties with Moscow.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Serbia Rules Out Recognizing Russian Referendum in Occupied Ukraine
> 
> 
> With a clear eye on Kosovo, Foreign Minister Selakovic said Belgrade could not recognize referendums that violate Serbia's 'policy of preserving territorial integrity and sovereignty'.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> balkaninsight.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Balkan Ally Serbia Says It Won't Recognize Russia's Staged Votes In Occupied Ukraine
> 
> 
> Russian ally Serbia has said it won't recognize the current votes in Russian-held parts of Ukraine that Kyiv has called "sham" referendums, dealing another international blow to the Kremlin's hastily organized effort at consolidating early gains in its 7-month-old invasion.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rferl.org


Putin acts like a 6yr old in a schoolyard, “it is because I say so”…
    The quicker he leaves the planet the better.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Czech_pivo said:


> Its the old Soviet mentality still holding true - 'they pretend to pay us and we pretend to work'.



But these people have the most important job, according to Stalin


----------



## YZT580

TacticalTea said:


> From what I've read and heard; sudden, not gradual pressure drop on both NS1 and NS2.
> 
> No, not an accident. Our allies have already come out stating the leaks appear to be the result of a deliberate attack.
> 
> Also, someone mentioned Russian exercise in the region: unlikely that USA would pick that timing to operate kinetically underwater. What does USA gain from bombing a gas line that's already inop, risk further destabilizing Europe, and potentially cause an environmental disaster on their newest Scandinavian allies' shores?
> 
> The ''Germany has control'' comment is nothing more than usual journalistic incompetence. NS2 is a joint venture with Gazprom as bare majority shareholder (51%).
> 
> Reminder from wikipedia:
> 
> It appears that Russia had already given up on NS1/2. Blowing it up might be a demonstration that they will not shy from attacking our pipelines and critical communication cables, and may serve internal propaganda purposes. On the energy front, Russia holds the bigger end of the stick, and that end is only getting bigger as winter approaches.
> 
> I'm happy to hear counter-arguments, I'm not taking the American side just because it's our side, I just don't see any reason for the false flag idea to be true, and defaulting to the Russian version for the sake contrarianism doesn't make any more sense.
> 
> 
> My understanding is that it's 5-10 BTGs in Lyman, Russians very much making a pitched effort to stop the Ukrainian advance. Ukrainians taking it slowly, which seems to be their typical approach to cities, akin to their advance in the Kherson area.


Sweden has said that even if it were proven that Russia sabotaged the pipelines it would not constitute an act of war for Article 5.  I guess in their minds someone has to die first


----------



## CBH99

YZT580 said:


> Sweden has said that even if it were proven that Russia sabotaged the pipelines it would not constitute an act of war for Article 5.  I guess in their minds someone has to die first


In peacetime, Sweden tends to be a rich source of logic & good governance.  Not immediately jumping the gun to Article 5 is just that, Ofcourse - good governance in exercising patience & diplomacy.  

But sometimes I feel Sweden needs to open their eyes to what really goes on near them…


----------



## TacticalTea

YZT580 said:


> Sweden has said that even if it were proven that Russia sabotaged the pipelines it would not constitute an act of war for Article 5.  I guess in their minds someone has to die first


Seems like a discretionary decision.

An attack is an attack. (Future, NATO-member) Sweden has the right to not invoke Article 5.

Now if they're pre-emptively saying they would not respond to another country's Article 5 due to this, that is extremely troublesome rhetoric that they should have kept to themselves, as it endangers the alliance's integrity.


----------



## KevinB

TacticalTea said:


> Seems like a discretionary decision.
> 
> An attack is an attack. (Future, NATO-member) Sweden has the right to not invoke Article 5.
> 
> Now if they're pre-emptively saying they would not respond to another country's Article 5 due to this, that is extremely troublesome rhetoric that they should have kept to themselves, as it endangers the alliance's integrity.


Wasn’t Swedish Territory, nor a Swedish asset, and no Swedish lives where lost, so no idea why Sweden is commenting…


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> Wasn’t Swedish Territory, nor a Swedish asset, and no Swedish lives where lost, so no idea why Sweden is commenting…


That too!


----------



## Kirkhill

Sweden's ASW and underwater warfare types have not been idle over the years.






						Swedish submarine incidents - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> Sweden's ASW and underwater warfare types have not been idle over the years.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Swedish submarine incidents - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org



The 'Silent Service' seems to have done a good job on this one, if indeed it happened at all 


The Secret War Against Sweden
US and British Submarine Deception in the 1980s​
Following the stranding of a Soviet Whiskey-class submarine in 1981 on the Swedish archipelago, a series of massive submarine intrusions took place within Swedish waters.

However, the evidence for these appears to have been manipulated or simply invented. Classified documents and interviews point to covert Western, rather than Soviet activity. This is backed up by former US Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger, who stated that Western "testing" operations were carried out regularly in Swedish waters. Royal Navy submarine captains have also admitted to top-secret operations.

Ola Tunander's revelations make it clear that the United States and Britain ran a "secret war" in Swedish waters. The number of Swedes perceiving the Soviet Union as a direct threat increased from 5-10 per cent in 1980 to 45 per cent in 1983. This Anglo-American "secret war" was aimed at exerting political influence over Sweden. It was a risky enterprise, but perhaps the most successful covert operation of the entire Cold War.









						The Secret War Against Sweden: US and British Submarine Deception in the 1980s
					

Following the stranding of a Soviet Whiskey-class submarine in 1981 on the Swedish archipelago, a series of massive submarine intrusions took place within Swedish waters.However, the evidence for these appears to have been manipulated or simply invented. Classified documents and interviews point...




					www.routledge.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson

An interesting article on the pipeline sabotage
Nord Stream sabotage mapped: How Putin could have carried out the attack


----------



## Czech_pivo

Here's a microcosm of what may very well be played out across most countries in the EU between Nov and March.









						Belgians rush to buy heaters before winter
					

Retailers are stocking their shelves with space heaters as Belgians make plans for an expensive winter.




					www.brusselstimes.com
				




Belgians rush to buy heaters before winter​*There is a rush on the sale of electric space heaters as Belgians prepare for a cold and expensive winter, marked by high gas prices and inflation. In Belgian stores, the sale of heaters and electric blankets has increased significantly, according to RTL Info.*

Note the costs: _"the average annual gas bill jumping to over €5,900. Electricity is slightly cheaper at just over €3,200."_

That's about *8,500$* CAD / year to heat a house in Belgium - which is significantly warmer during the Nov-Mar time period than virtually every part of Canada.
As a comparison - I know that I pay about *1,300-1,400$* CAD / year to heat my house in Burlington - that's a gas furnace, gas stove, gas barbeque, gas fireplace and a gas heater on my pool (which I use a great deal to keep my pool above 80F).

*EDIT:*  Article referencing the household gas costs in Belgium.









						Average annual energy bill tops €9,000
					

An average household that needs to conclude an energy contract in September should expect a combined annual bill of €9,210 for gas and electricity.




					www.brusselstimes.com
				




Average annual energy bill tops €9,000​


----------



## KevinB

The 90km journey that changed the course of the war in Ukraine
					

How Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the north-east dramatically turned the tide of the seven-month-long invasion




					ig.ft.com
				



For those without subscription - the link on twitter

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575045023410028545


----------



## KevinB

More HIMARS - part of the 1.1B package President Biden is sending this week


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575180212563628035


----------



## Weinie

Czech_pivo said:


> Here's a microcosm of what may very well be played out across most countries in the EU between Nov and March.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Belgians rush to buy heaters before winter
> 
> 
> Retailers are stocking their shelves with space heaters as Belgians make plans for an expensive winter.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.brusselstimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Belgians rush to buy heaters before winter​*There is a rush on the sale of electric space heaters as Belgians prepare for a cold and expensive winter, marked by high gas prices and inflation. In Belgian stores, the sale of heaters and electric blankets has increased significantly, according to RTL Info.*
> 
> Note the costs: _"the average annual gas bill jumping to over €5,900. Electricity is slightly cheaper at just over €3,200."_
> 
> That's about *8,500$* CAD / year to heat a house in Belgium - which is significantly warmer during the Nov-Mar time period than virtually every part of Canada.
> As a comparison - I know that I pay about *1,300-1,400$* CAD / year to heat my house in Burlington - that's a gas furnace, gas stove, gas barbeque, gas fireplace and a gas heater on my pool (which I use a great deal to keep my pool above 80F).
> 
> *EDIT:*  Article referencing the household gas costs in Belgium.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Average annual energy bill tops €9,000
> 
> 
> An average household that needs to conclude an energy contract in September should expect a combined annual bill of €9,210 for gas and electricity.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.brusselstimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Average annual energy bill tops €9,000​


Phuckin great. We just moved to Belgium. At least we signed a three year lease, after which, we will get out of Dodge.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Weinie said:


> Phuckin great. We just moved to Belgium. At least we signed a three year lease, after which, we will get out of Dodge.


Where in Belgie?  In Wallonia or Vlaams?


----------



## Weinie

Czech_pivo said:


> Where in Belgie?  In Wallonia or Vlaams?


In Casteau.


----------



## Czech_pivo

In Wallonia - be prepared for 2 names for virtually every village, town and city - the French name and the Flemish name - and if you use the 'Flemish' name in Wallonia be prepared for alot of people to shrug their shoulders and say, 'never heard of the place'.  The same will hold true in Flanders, though I found them to be more open to admitting that 2 names of each place exist when I lived there years ago. 

Leuven = Louvain
Namur = Namen
Antwerp = Anvers
Bruges = Bruggen
Liege = Luik 
Brussels = Bruxelles

You get the picture.

Bring good rain gear, you're going to need it.....


Weinie said:


> In Casteau


----------



## Weinie

Czech_pivo said:


> In Wallonia - be prepared for 2 names for virtually every village, town and city - the French name and the Flemish name - and if you use the 'Flemish' name in Wallonia be prepared for alot of people to shrug their shoulders and say, 'never heard of the place'.  The same will hold true in Flanders, though I found them to be more open to admitting that 2 names of each place exist when I lived there years ago.
> 
> Leuven = Louvain
> Namur = Namen
> Antwerp = Anvers
> Bruges = Bruggen
> Liege = Luik
> Brussels = Bruxelles
> 
> You get the picture.
> 
> Bring good rain gear, you're going to need it.....


Thanks for that. I am just undergoing the adjustment to understand why *everything in Belgium is so fuckin slow, to the point that my wife says "You need to calm down"* I have still not calmed down. They are friendly people, but with no sense of urgency whatsoever.

We arrived at the end of July, for 4 weeks there were record temps (25-40C) and no rain. For the past three weeks, there has been no day without rain; reminds me of my posting to Victoria.

Mon francais est tres mauviase, but thankfully most of the locals understand/speak English.

OTOH, I have 4 kids and the washers and dryers here are micro and suck shit.

Rant off.


----------



## Skysix

daftandbarmy said:


> But these people have the most important job, according to Stalin
> 
> View attachment 73898


Straight from Stalin to Trump


----------



## Czech_pivo

Weinie said:


> Thanks for that. I am just undergoing the adjustment to understand why *everything in Belgium is so fuckin slow, to the point that my wife says "You need to calm down"* I have still not calmed down. They are friendly people, but with no sense of urgency whatsoever.
> 
> We arrived at the end of July, for 4 weeks there were record temps (25-40C) and no rain. For the past three weeks, there has been no day without rain; reminds me of my posting to Victoria.
> 
> Mon francais est tres mauviase, but thankfully most of the locals understand/speak English.
> 
> OTOH, I have 4 kids and the washers and dryers here are micro and suck shit.
> 
> Rant off.


We used to have a saying living in Belgium - the Belgians do things 'back asswards' instead of the more commonly known phase 'ass backwards'.  

Have you gone to the post office yet to try and mail/ship something back home?  Wait for that experience to happen....

Use English over Francais when in Flanders, you'll get a better response and a smile.


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> Putin acts like a 6yr old in a schoolyard, “it is because I say so” ...


So you know it's bad when one of the bully's traditional buddies comes out and says out loud, "you're wrong, bud."


----------



## Skysix




----------



## KevinB

Congress to vote on $12.3 billion Ukraine aid package
					

The bill grants the White House request for $7.5 billion in military assistance to Ukraine and another $4.5 billion in economic support.




					www.defensenews.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> Congress to vote on $12.3 billion Ukraine aid package
> 
> 
> The bill grants the White House request for $7.5 billion in military assistance to Ukraine and another $4.5 billion in economic support.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.defensenews.com



Not bad I guess.... 

I wonder if a consultant has done the 'bang for buck' analysis on all this yet?

You know, so they can kick off a proper 'War Bond' campaign with the right data in hand. People who can't go, must give!


----------



## YZT580

Czech_pivo said:


> We used to have a saying living in Belgium - the Belgians do things 'back asswards' instead of the more commonly known phase 'ass backwards'.
> 
> Have you gone to the post office yet to try and mail/ship something back home?  Wait for that experience to happen....
> 
> Use English over Francais when in Flanders, you'll get a better response and a smile.


on the other hand, the doctors will make house calls and the transit system is superb.  Want a good day, take theTueveran tram out to the African Museum park. Not the museum itself but the park is fantastic place to wander


----------



## Czech_pivo

YZT580 said:


> on the other hand, the doctors will make house calls and the transit system is superb.  Want a good day, take theTueveran tram out to the African Museum park. Not the museum itself but the park is fantastic place to wander


Yes and the food is top shelf and the beer selection is to die for and the chocolate unparalleled. But it’s still a dysfunctional place overall in my experience, just my 2 cents.


----------



## Skysix

"The conversation with the Prime Minister of Canada was, as always, very specific and concerned primarily how Canada can increase support for Ukraine. Among other things, demining was discussed. Canada has both the appropriate technology and the appropriate humanitarian ambitions.

I invited Prime Minister Trudeau to lead a global effort to clear our land of Russian mines and projectiles. Due to the Russian war, Ukrainian land is one of the most contaminated by mines in the world. And while there are similar examples of large-scale mine contamination around the world, we must do what others have not done: we must set a precedent for rapid and large-scale demining, not leave this problem for decades. I thank Canada for its willingness to help us."









						Ukraine will not put up with any attempts by Russia to seize our land - Zelensky
					

Ukraine cannot and will not put up with any attempts by Russia to seize any part of Ukrainian land. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## daftandbarmy

Apparently, we have four (4) holes now....

A 200 m hole.... how much explosive power would you need to do that FFS?


BREAKING: The Swedish Coastguard has found a 4th leak from the Nord Stream pipelines. It comes from Nord Stream 2, is located in Sweden’s Economic Zone and measures 200 meter in diameter.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575297931053244419


----------



## Colin Parkinson

I think the leak on the surface is 200m, not clear if they have even dove the pipes yet?


----------



## FJAG

Czech_pivo said:


> Yes and the food is top shelf and the beer selection is to die for and the chocolate unparalleled. But it’s still a dysfunctional place overall in my experience, just my 2 cents.


Okay! I'll disagree on the food. Any nation that consumes Croque Monsieur and Moules in garlicky broth has limited taste buds. The beer and the chocolate (Mmmm, Neuhaus) is fine, though. I even got along with frites with mayonnaise.

😁


----------



## Weinie

FJAG said:


> Okay! I'll disagree on the food. Any nation that consumes Croque Monsieur and Moules in garlicky broth has limited taste buds. The beer and the chocolate (Mmmm, Neuhaus) is fine, though. I even got along with frites with mayonnaise.
> 
> 😁


Also had better mussels all my life on the East Coast.


----------



## FSTO

Question for your infantry types. Seeing the pictures of the Russian Trenches and their gawd-awful lack of sanitary discipline, how do you folks maintain a relatively clean and orderly defensive position?


----------



## SeaKingTacco

FSTO said:


> Question for your infantry types. Seeing the pictures of the Russian Trenches and their gawd-awful lack of sanitary discipline, how do you folks maintain a relatively clean and orderly defensive position?


Don’t crap in your defensive position, for starters…


----------



## YZT580

FJAG said:


> Okay! I'll disagree on the food. Any nation that consumes Croque Monsieur and Moules in garlicky broth has limited taste buds. The beer and the chocolate (Mmmm, Neuhaus) is fine, though. I even got along with frites with mayonnaise.
> 
> 😁


Jambon ancienne (I think that was it) is great meal that will fill you up and I will second on the beer, especially the abbey ones


----------



## daftandbarmy

FSTO said:


> Question for your infantry types. Seeing the pictures of the Russian Trenches and their gawd-awful lack of sanitary discipline, how do you folks maintain a relatively clean and orderly defensive position?



Sergeants... loud, aggressive Sergeants


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> Yes and the food is top shelf and the beer selection is to die for and the chocolate unparalleled. But it’s still a dysfunctional place overall in my experience, just my 2 cents.


Agree on the beer. I don't know if it's still there, but there was a bar in Bruges that sold every beer brewed in Belgium - all 350 +.


----------



## KevinB

FSTO said:


> Question for your infantry types. Seeing the pictures of the Russian Trenches and their gawd-awful lack of sanitary discipline, how do you folks maintain a relatively clean and orderly defensive position?


Inherent discipline and hygiene. 
   It’s just not sanitary disciple they lack, the positions look like a drunken teenager camping spot. 
   No camo, no real attempt at shellscrapes, not sense to layout etc. 

Pitiful


----------



## Colin Parkinson

daftandbarmy said:


> Apparently, we have four (4) holes now....
> 
> A 200 m hole.... how much explosive power would you need to do that FFS?
> 
> 
> BREAKING: The Swedish Coastguard has found a 4th leak from the Nord Stream pipelines. It comes from Nord Stream 2, is located in Sweden’s Economic Zone and measures 200 meter in diameter.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575297931053244419


The Danish Energy Agency confirms the fourth gas leak in the Baltic Sea
OF
Victor Emil Kuhlman Pedersen
The one pipe on Nord Stream 2 has not one, but two leaks, confirms the Danish Energy Agency according to Ritzau.

The announcement comes in the wake of the Swedish Coast Guard saying earlier today that they had found a fourth gas leak in the Baltic Sea .

The Danish Energy Agency was made aware of the leak on Thursday morning by the operator of Nord Stream 2.

- It just means that the gas in the pipe that was damaged runs out a little faster, says Kristoffer Böttzauw, who at the same time does not expect that there may be more leaks on the pipes in the Danish zone .

- We have a fairly good grasp of where these leaks were. And the leak that is on Nord Stream 2 is relatively close to the leaks that are on Nord Stream 1.

There is thus still a gas pipe on Nord Stream 2 that is intact . This is because each Nord Stream connection has two gas pipes.

The expectation is still that the pipes will be emptied of gas on Sunday.









						Energistyrelsen bekræfter fjerde gaslækage i Østersøen | Nyheder | DR
					






					www.dr.dk


----------



## MJP

FSTO said:


> Question for your infantry types. Seeing the pictures of the Russian Trenches and their gawd-awful lack of sanitary discipline, how do you folks maintain a relatively clean and orderly defensive position?


In addition to camp discipline/routine, layout management and control/oversight by NCMS that the other folks pointed out, we generally also have fairly robust support down to the Coy/Sqn level that facilitate removing garbage and bringing forward materiel to support hygiene matters. Granted it is lower priority but can be easily ramped up when tempo is low and opportunities exist.


----------



## Kirkhill

Tankers on a drive ... 

Propaganda yes.  But might also suggest the use of the tanks in exploitation.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xqzvc2

Do the Russians have the equivalent of Javelins and NLAWs?  Or the organization to use them effectively?


----------



## Cloud Cover

Skysix said:


> "The conversation with the Prime Minister of Canada was, as always, very specific and concerned primarily how Canada can increase support for Ukraine. Among other things, demining was discussed. Canada has both the appropriate technology and the appropriate humanitarian ambitions.
> 
> I invited Prime Minister Trudeau to lead a global effort to clear our land of Russian mines and projectiles. Due to the Russian war, Ukrainian land is one of the most contaminated by mines in the world. And while there are similar examples of large-scale mine contamination around the world, we must do what others have not done: we must set a precedent for rapid and large-scale demining, not leave this problem for decades. I thank Canada for its willingness to help us."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine will not put up with any attempts by Russia to seize our land - Zelensky
> 
> 
> Ukraine cannot and will not put up with any attempts by Russia to seize any part of Ukrainian land. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net


It does sound like the landmine problem is very concerning. I'm sure some of you know this guy Ryan. Pretty good book as well. 








						Ryan Hendrickson on Instagram: "Even though I'm now back in the U.S now, I still dream about this sound. Little rattle snakes comig alive🤣"
					

Ryan Hendrickson shared a post on Instagram: "Even though I'm now back in the U.S now, I still dream about this sound. Little rattle snakes comig alive🤣". Follow their account to see 485 posts.




					www.instagram.com
				








						Ryan Hendrickson
					

The Tip of the Spear




					ryanmhendrickson.com


----------



## Skysix

daftandbarmy said:


> Apparently, we have four (4) holes now....
> 
> A 200 m hole.... how much explosive power would you need to do that FFS?
> 
> 
> BREAKING: The Swedish Coastguard has found a 4th leak from the Nord Stream pipelines. It comes from Nord Stream 2, is located in Sweden’s Economic Zone and measures 200 meter in diameter.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575297931053244419


Yes. If you are doing what essentially is a reserve demolition, you always set 2. The question is, were they time delayed 'pigs' sent down the pipe by Russia, or previously laid subsurface charges from all the Russian sub activity in the black sea back in '17. Given the seismic readings the latter is more likely.

Is unlikely to be a torpedo or depth charge as the area is under heavy and constant observation acoustically, and alphabet agencies/SF of whichever NATO country is unlikely as it would be a massive breach of trust in the Alliance (even if the aim was to set up conditions so that Scholtz cant go 'neutral' when the cold German public threatens his position)

But as a waving red flag warning to the west that their power and data cables, as well as other pipelines, Could just as easily be destroyed by ELF/VLF command detonated subsurface mines.

That would however be a nice legal point. Would it be enough if an Article 5 event if it was in international waters and nobody was killed to get NATI to commit to conbat with Russia?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

FSTO said:


> Question for your infantry types. Seeing the pictures of the Russian Trenches and their gawd-awful lack of sanitary discipline, how do you folks maintain a relatively clean and orderly defensive position?


Discipline, trade knowledge, robust lines of support....

Basically everything that you do on ship to keep it from looking like a fishing trawler full of drunks.

Russia has none of those three so... here we are


----------



## McG

Skysix said:


> "The conversation with the Prime Minister of Canada was, as always, very specific and concerned primarily how Canada can increase support for Ukraine. Among other things, demining was discussed. Canada has both the appropriate technology and the appropriate humanitarian ambitions.


Well, let’s send them half our EROC fleet since the PYs were never allocated for Canada to crew even half of the capability. Maybe they want the ROMEX too?


----------



## Kirkhill

Free advertizing for Elon Musk's Starlink - but it also raises the question of what are the actual communications needs and how best can they be cheaply provided.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xr8njw


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Kirkhill said:


> Free advertizing for Elon Musk's Starlink - but it also raises the question of what are the actual communications needs and how best can they be cheaply provided.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xr8njw


IO/IA/C5ISR is Blitzkrieg for the 21st Century. There I said it.

Where are Blitzkrieg used maneuvre, speed, and combined arms to move faster and with greater flexibility than your enemy; what were seeing from Ukraine is info Blitzkreig. 

Ukrainians are able to locate, inform, target, and verify faster than the Russians. They're using COTS drones, cellular, and other comms to out think and out inform the Russians.

When you have secure, encrypted, satellite comms flooding your AOR; you have a massive leg up in the IO dimension compared to your adversary.

Honestly, Starling is providing more strategic, operational, and tactical impact than any number of weapons effects coming from NATO.


----------



## Kirkhill

ACSVs in Germany on the way to Ukraine?


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xr0tad


----------



## brihard

FSTO said:


> Question for your infantry types. Seeing the pictures of the Russian Trenches and their gawd-awful lack of sanitary discipline, how do you folks maintain a relatively clean and orderly defensive position?


Actual dug in defensive positions are farther up ahead of the platoon admin points. Some equipment will be right up in the trench, and some garbage/salvage generated- consumed ration packs, stuff like that. But part of our defensive routine is to consistently tidy stuff up, move trash to the back through platoon and company, and keep the position clean. Part of it is for sanitation, part is to minimize compromise of cam and concealment, but otherwise it’s just because we’re disciplined like that in any setting and defensive is no different I guess. You clean up your shit, and we instill that from day one.


----------



## Remius

Most people on here likely know this. But defensive positions and hide states and conditions provide an immense amount of int on morale, equipment, training, logistics etc etc.


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> ACSVs in Germany on the way to Ukraine?
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xr0tad




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575123159610585088


----------



## KevinB

rmc_wannabe said:


> IO/IA/C5ISR is Blitzkrieg for the 21st Century. There I said it.
> 
> Where are Blitzkrieg used maneuvre, speed, and combined arms to move faster and with greater flexibility than your enemy; what were seeing from Ukraine is info Blitzkreig.
> 
> Ukrainians are able to locate, inform, target, and verify faster than the Russians. They're using COTS drones, cellular, and other comms to out think and out inform the Russians.
> 
> When you have secure, encrypted, satellite comms flooding your AOR; you have a massive leg up in the IO dimension compared to your adversary.
> 
> Honestly, Starling is providing more strategic, operational, and tactical impact than any number of weapons effects coming from NATO.


Starlink is an asset - but keep in mind the vast majority of data is streaming from NATO ISR assets.  Local UAS pick up from that.  

A lot less COTS comms equipment though, we have sent a lot of Harris Radios…


----------



## FSTO

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575363493015875585


----------



## daftandbarmy

Remius said:


> Most people on here likely know this. But defensive positions and hide states and conditions provide an immense amount of int on morale, equipment, training, logistics etc etc.



One of my favourite quotes...

"You can learn alot from a shit pit."


----------



## TacticalTea

Skysix said:


> The question is, were they time delayed 'pigs' sent down the pipe by Russia, or previously laid subsurface charges from all the Russian sub activity in the black sea back in '17. Given the seismic readings the latter is more likely.


Also, wouldn't a pig in all likelihood affect the flow, thus the pressure, and be detected?


----------



## GR66

TacticalTea said:


> Also, wouldn't a pig in all likelihood affect the flow, thus the pressure, and be detected?


Were the pipelines not shut down and therefore no flow?  And presumably no pigging?


----------



## Spencer100

GR66 said:


> Were the pipelines not shut down and therefore no flow?  And presumably no pigging?


Doesn't the Russian navy have a sub just for this kind of thing



			H I Sutton - Covert Shores


----------



## SeaKingTacco

Skysix said:


> Yes. If you are doing what essentially is a reserve demolition, you always set 2. The question is, were they time delayed 'pigs' sent down the pipe by Russia, or previously laid subsurface charges from all the Russian sub activity in the black sea back in '17. Given the seismic readings the latter is more likely.
> 
> Is unlikely to be a torpedo or depth charge as the area is under heavy and constant observation acoustically, and alphabet agencies/SF of whichever NATO country is unlikely as it would be a massive breach of trust in the Alliance (even if the aim was to set up conditions so that Scholtz cant go 'neutral' when the cold German public threatens his position)
> 
> But as a waving red flag warning to the west that their power and data cables, as well as other pipelines, Could just as easily be destroyed by ELF/VLF command detonated subsurface mines.
> 
> That would however be a nice legal point. Would it be enough if an Article 5 event if it was in international waters and nobody was killed to get NATI to commit to conbat with Russia?


Your theory is that the Russians predicted in 2017 that they would invade Ukraine someday and that it would go so badly that they might have to blow Nordstream 2, so they sent a submarine to mine it, while it was under construction?


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Not looking good for the Russians stationed in Lyyman if this is accurate.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575584971569258497


----------



## Kat Stevens

SeaKingTacco said:


> Your theory is that the Russians predicted in 2017 that they would invade Ukraine someday and that it would go so badly that they might have to blow Nordstream 2, so they sent a submarine to mine it, while it was under construction?


Sort of like the Twin Towers being built with pre placed C4 charges, just in case they had to bring them down in a hurry some day in order to have something to blame on some guy squatting in a cave somewhere.


----------



## armrdsoul77

Pipeline pig in case others were also wondering


Various types of pigs for your pipeline.








						Introduction to Pigging in Pipeline - The Process Piping
					

Pigging in pipeline is a process in pipeline maintenance that involves the use of devices known as pigs, which clean pipelines and are capable of checking pipeline condition without necessarily stopping or interfering with the flow of product in the pipeline.



					www.theprocesspiping.com


----------



## Skysix

SeaKingTacco said:


> Your theory is that the Russians predicted in 2017 that they would invade Ukraine someday and that it would go so badly that they might have to blow Nordstream 2, so they sent a submarine to mine it, while it was under construction?


No, not that specific. That they would be in vonflict with NATO someday and should be prepared. I would be very surprised if similar thinking did not exist in other navies with similar capabilities and lotential global problems. Pretty sure it is a mission type within the SEAL community - they didn't build a carrier sub and place SDV team in Hawaii for shits and giggles.


----------



## Skysix

Kat Stevens said:


> Sort of like the Twin Towers being built with pre placed C4 charges, just in case they had to bring them down in a hurry some day in order to have something to blame on some guy squatting in a cave somewhere.


No, more like many bridges and tunnel entrances throughout Europe being designed and built with demo ready voids in key places.


----------



## Skysix

GR66 said:


> Were the pipelines not shut down and therefore no flow?  And presumably no pigging?


Pressurised (obviously) with test flows to get certification (N2) and 20% flow in N1 with frequent stoppages for various 'maintenance' reasons.

So no, not necessarily.


----------



## Rifleman62

Defensive position discipline starts here: 




My first thought was get together and clean it up.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Rifleman62 said:


> Defensive position discipline starts here:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> My first thought was get together and clean it up.


This is why a professional NCO corps is worth its weight in gold.


----------



## Brad Sallows

And now you know what a point labeled "Pig passing" is on an alert display...


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Interesting bits, Commander using a DJI drone to direct his troops and that Soviet designed tanks have a very limited ammo supply onboard. Also the bit about the Russian artillery is informative.


----------



## childs56

Colin Parkinson said:


> Interesting bits, Commander using a DJI drone to direct his troops and that Soviet designed tanks have a very limited ammo supply onboard. Also the bit about the Russian artillery is informative.


The Commander seemed to do a good job coordinating his troops on the ground, something which would have been hard if not impossible from the seat of his tank. Adaptability and using teck to their advantage.

That ammo supply of 22 rounds seems to little. But if you had more tanks and a good supply chain one could rotate out as they run low. Interesting they used four tanks and appeared to do a good job.  

Russian Artillery has always been about volume of fire, accuracy of a grid square. How they manage the supply of rounds is unreal. that's their doctrine, always has and I think always will be. (even if they start out precisions bombing, that only last until they screw up) If it works well sort of, leveling your own "peoples lands" generally works against you. 

That was a good video. 
This shows the training professionalism and Coordination NATO troops have been instilling in the Ukraine Military for the past number of years is successful.  Prior to 2016 they were a former soviet bloc country running bloc tactics. Now they are running Western Tactics blended into Bloc ones and the professionalism overall is well observed.  Lots of excellent teaching  and learning points across the board for all.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Notice one of the BTR still has parade markings on it. 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575984316022071297


----------



## Kirkhill

Interesting update from Daily Kos

Ukraine on the move in multiple directions and now in possession of the M30A1 - videos of trials and effects - 

Ukraine reputedly in Borova and Kreminna and in Terny.  That puts them across the Zherebets River astride the LOC from Zarichne to Svatove.









						Ukraine update: Russia prepares for defense of Svatove as U.S. provides powerful new rockets
					

Right now, Russian sources on Telegraph are evenly divided. Half of them are convinced that Russia is sending, or has already sent, massive reinforcements that will keep Lyman in Russian hands forever. You can take your pick on whether these are Wagner...




					www.dailykos.com


----------



## MilEME09

Even Russian telegram is doom and gloom about Lyman. Reports also say units that managed to get out where immediately engaged when they reached Kremmina by forward elements of the UA advance.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576172235735171075


----------



## MilEME09

The trolling here is awesome 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576248108690079745


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> The trolling here is awesome
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576248108690079745



A nice selection of NATO type weapons there...


----------



## Kirkhill

Interesting video of Ukrainian National Guard practicing taking up positions on the Belarus border.

Drive in on a BMD 1 to a prepared hull down hide.  Troops debus and take up positions in nicely cut trenches.   Section supported by a well protected MG and a 73mm cannon.  Troops also equipped with a local equivalent of the M72.


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> Interesting video of Ukrainian National Guard practicing taking up positions on the Belarus border.
> 
> Drive in on a BMD 1 to a prepared hull down hide.  Troops debus and take up positions in nicely cut trenches.   Section supported by a well protected MG and a 73mm cannon.  Troops also equipped with a local equivalent of the M72.


I honestly can't see Luk pushing Belarus into this -- he'd be slitting his own throat - and probably be annexed by Latvia and Estonia in 5 min...


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> I honestly can't see Luk pushing Belarus into this -- he'd be slitting his own throat - and probably be annexed by Latvia and Estonia in 5 min...



I agree with you.   I was more interested in the tactical detail on this one.   The use of old, thin-skinned APCs to get the most out of them - simple transport of troops and support weapons to static prepared positions.


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> I agree with you.   I was more interested in the tactical detail on this one.   The use of old, thin-skinned APCs to get the most out of them - simple transport of troops and support weapons to static prepared positions.


Ukraine has been very effective with their allocation of assets to various roles -- given the variety of items they have, they have done a remarkable job.


----------



## MilEME09

M30A1 non explosive cluster rockets for HIMARS/M270 have been confirmed in country. Grid square removal is now possible, Russia will have a very hard time if those hit troop concentrations.


----------



## Kirkhill

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575825324440313856








						Protests erupt in Russia's Dagestan region as minorities say they are being targeted by Putin's mobilization orders | CNN
					

Heated protests have broken out in some ethnic minority regions in Russia against Vladimir Putin's mobilization orders, with activist groups and Ukrainian officials saying these minorities are being disproportionately targeted for conscription in the war.




					www.cnn.com
				




I also saw a report of a Dagestani mayor calling out Moscow's recruiters for mobilizing ineligible locals.

And as a general reminder









						Dagestan bombs kill four, two dead in shootout near Moscow
					

Two car bombs killed at least four people and wounded dozens of others on Monday in one of the bloodiest attacks this year in Dagestan, a turbulent province in Russia's North Caucasus region where armed groups are waging an Islamist insurgency.




					www.reuters.com
				




Russia has form on recruiting its enemies - surprising the their enemies aren't grateful for the opportunity to serve.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

This is hilarious to watch now.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575955526240055296


----------



## MilEME09

More battlefield learning of destructive failure of barrels due to prolonged firing without changing the barrel

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576303454917922817


----------



## Kirkhill

Nice shout out to the Forgotten - No D-Day Dodgers for the Ukrainians


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xt3rnx

One of the key elements of the Ukrainian War Machine - Two Comedians - Zelenskyy and Zaluzhnyi (the even sound like a Music Hall turn)

One thing comedians know is important is not losing the audience - or in military parlance Maintenance of Morale

And with that in mind -  the trolling continues


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xt3fck


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Looks like another ammo depot just blew up main at the Russian military airbase in Belbek near Sevastopol, Crimea. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576229066952216576

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576228476536778758


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Increasing sounding like that Lyman has become the Russian version of Falaise. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576185412099375105


----------



## daftandbarmy

Retired AF Guy said:


> Increasing sounding like that Lyman has become the Russian version of Falaise.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576185412099375105



Go Infantry!

"Kill all they send, and they will stop coming." 

_Nguyễn Hữu An_


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Retired AF Guy said:


> Increasing sounding like that Lyman has become the Russian version of Falaise.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576185412099375105


Falaise at least saw a competent enemy put up some organized resistance. I think this will fair far better for the Ukrainians.


----------



## TacticalTea

Retired AF Guy said:


> Looks like another ammo depot just blew up main at the Russian military airbase in Belbek near Sevastopol, Crimea.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576229066952216576
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576228476536778758


Appears to be a crash on takeoff or landing.

Saw footage, let me try to find it.

Edit: There.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576238993913843712


----------



## MilEME09

If none of you follow language learner, his daily updates are fantastic. Look below to today's, big thing that stood out to me was AFU units running out of ammo engaging Russian forces retreating from Lyman due to the sheer number of them.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576403527198351360


----------



## daftandbarmy

Good news...


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576445020638482434


----------



## McG

Signs of Russian desperation growing.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576342007035092992


----------



## CBH99

McG said:


> Signs of Russian desperation growing.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576342007035092992


It’s actually because of people like him, that I lean more & more towards Vlad using a tactical nuke or a dirty bomb in one of the areas they’ve recently taken.  

Their attempts to legitimize the territorial gains have been laughed out of the UN, and traditional allies like Serbia bluntly state they think so too.  

Plus they are full of Ukrainians, since, well you know…


If a guy like this is calling for no limits & no peacetime, imagine the pressure/incentive someone like Putin has to ‘go extreme’…especially now that it’s his ass on the line


----------



## ModlrMike

This is not the Russia of WW2, and Russian pragmatism may work against Putin the more desperate he gets.


----------



## Eaglelord17

ModlrMike said:


> This is not the Russia of WW2, and Russian pragmatism may work against Putin the more desperate he gets.


Yeah no America to support them this time around and no skilled generals to pull out of the gulag to save themselves from the corrupt leadership they currently have


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> If none of you follow language learner, his daily updates are fantastic. Look below to today's, big thing that stood out to me was AFU units running out of ammo engaging Russian forces retreating from Lyman due to the sheer number of them.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576403527198351360


Absolutely. Been listening to him when he comes up on Mriya Report.


----------



## Skysix

TacticalTea said:


> Absolutely. Been listening to him when he comes up on Mriya Report.


Time to hunkerdown at a predesignated time and HIMARS a bunch of M30A1's


----------



## MilEME09

Skysix said:


> Time to hunkerdown at a predesignated time and HIMARS a bunch of M30A1's


If what happened on the highway out of Lyman is true, that probably happened and makes the highway of death in Iraq look like a picnic


----------



## MilEME09

Well our supply system is bad, it's not we lost 1.5 million winter uniforms bad.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576664301322252288


----------



## NavyShooter




----------



## RangerRay

NavyShooter said:


> View attachment 73965


So Nicholas Cage is why Russia’s new draftees are being issued Mosin-Nagants?


----------



## Colin Parkinson

MilEME09 said:


> Well our supply system is bad, it's not we lost 1.5 million winter uniforms bad.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576664301322252288


Somebody opened up the actual warehouse and saw it was empty. Likely sold off years ago. Mad scramble as people start checking real inventories and not relying on spreadsheets or databases.


----------



## Eaglelord17

Colin Parkinson said:


> Somebody opened up the actual warehouse and saw it was empty. Likely sold off years ago. Mad scramble as people start checking real inventories and not relying on spreadsheets or databases.


Wouldn't be the first nation to have that happen to them (though it does seem to happen to them a lot more than others). Sweden in the 90s particularly comes to mind when the biker gangs would loot the long term army storage and it would be months before they realized what had happened (mainly because by that point the gangs were using it).


----------



## brihard

Big if true.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576702134640586752


----------



## Skysix

The Ukrainian mastery of the Information Domain is worthy of note. WAY ahead of the rest of NATO in leveraging tech and info to make an impression in the public consciousness that builds them support


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576202950925746176
(From "The Drive": New footage shows Ukrainian forces and their domestically produced “Punisher” drones dropping unguided bombs on Russian positions. Unlike some of the smaller commercial drones modified to drop mortars and grenades hovering above, the Punisher drops ordnance like a dive bomber with remarkable accuracy.)


----------



## Skysix

Hats off to all the UA SF and their International Legion bretheren. Much of the rapid advances could not have happened without their actions behind enemy lines over the past few weeks.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573355201360441345


----------



## MilEME09

Skysix said:


> Hats off to all the UA SF and their International Legion bretheren. Much of the rapid advances could not have happened without their actions behind enemy lines over the past few weeks.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1573355201360441345


From what I heard the number of EX NATO SOF types that went to Ukraine was very high.


----------



## Skysix

MilEME09 said:


> From what I heard the number of EX NATO SOF types that went to Ukraine was very high.


And all were "retired", Some extremely recently, allegedly so recently they haven't yet even started their terminal leave.

There is likely to be some severe combat trauma when they are back though. A lot of close range killing of ill prepared or untrained Russian conscripts is starting to mess with many minds if some intercepted phone calls home are any indication.


----------



## daftandbarmy

The rather pathetic economy of Russia, explained. Very interesting:


----------



## lenaitch

Colin Parkinson said:


> Somebody opened up the actual warehouse and saw it was empty. Likely sold off years ago. Mad scramble as people start checking real inventories and not relying on spreadsheets or databases.


Sounds like the Ontario PPE stockpile that was supposed to have created after SARS.  It wasn't stolen, just depleted and/or expired.


----------



## MilEME09

lenaitch said:


> Sounds like the Ontario PPE stockpile that was supposed to have created after SARS.  It wasn't stolen, just depleted and/or expired.


And thrown out without replacing


----------



## KevinB

Colin Parkinson said:


> Somebody opened up the actual warehouse and saw it was empty. Likely sold off years ago. Mad scramble as people start checking real inventories and not relying on spreadsheets or databases.


Let’s be honest that has been the Russian business model for years. 

Make 5, bill for 10, sell 3 of the 5 to other sources, so RuAF pays for 10 and gets ~2…


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Word to the wise, there is no privacy on the Frontline anymore


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576961509749850112


----------



## KevinB

Oil prices jump as OPEC Plus weighs a supply cut, and stocks rally, too.
					






					www.nytimes.com
				




Anyone who think the OPEC countries are our friends…


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> Oil prices jump as OPEC Plus weighs a supply cut, and stocks rally, too.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Anyone who think the OPEC countries are our friends…



They took a real pounding in the recent past so they're making up for lost time...


----------



## CBH99

Colin Parkinson said:


> Word to the wise, there is no privacy on the Frontline anymore
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576961509749850112


I mean, when they say cameras are everywhere… 😅

To be fair, if I was most likely about to die in a war I didn’t want to be in, wearing a uniform I didn’t want to be wearing, for a military I didn’t even enlist in — but my choices were Ukrainian bombs or Russian bullets…

Ya know… maybe that squirrel WAS flirting with me after all?  🤨😘


----------



## Colin Parkinson

daftandbarmy said:


> They took a real pounding in the recent past so they're making up for lost time...


Funny how we never got much benefit from that


----------



## brihard

Colin Parkinson said:


> Word to the wise, there is no privacy on the Frontline anymore
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576961509749850112


Looks like the grenade landed in a trench just off to their side so they may actually be ok-ish. Unless the one dude’s startle reflex is to bite.


----------



## CBH99

brihard said:


> Looks like the grenade landed in a trench just off to their side so they may actually be ok-ish. Unless the one dude’s startle reflex is to bite.


"How did my husband die?"

"Well, ma'am, you see...life gets complicated once we get a little older, doesn't it?"


----------



## Maxman1

"He died doing what he loved."


----------



## Skysix

When recruiting fails, I guess the draft is your only other option. Maybe this recruiting video had something to do with the Russian Armies 'sucessful' reconstitution.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1566133126610526210
#BestTrollOscarNominee


----------



## Skysix

When recruiting fails, I guess the draft is your only other option. Maybe this recruiting video had something to do with the Russian Armies 'successful' reconstitution.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1566133126610526210
#BestTrollOscarNominee


----------



## Ping Monkey

The truth hurts... literally.








						Top Russian officer 'beaten after saying 'you are all cannon fodder''
					

The Russian lieutenant-colonel had his face 'smashed' and bones in his face broken in a brawl in which 'every single one of them was drunk', say reports.




					www.dailymail.co.uk


----------



## Blackadder1916

Ping Monkey said:


> The truth hurts... literally.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Top Russian officer 'beaten after saying 'you are all cannon fodder''
> 
> 
> The Russian lieutenant-colonel had his face 'smashed' and bones in his face broken in a brawl in which 'every single one of them was drunk', say reports.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.dailymail.co.uk



Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.   (_The more things change, the more they stay the same._)


----------



## Skysix




----------



## Czech_pivo

Blackadder1916 said:


> Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.   (_The more things change, the more they stay the same._)


Question is, which will we see?  
A mob moving back towards Belograd or Rostov with MVD or OMON moving to violently suppress them? 

Or, more like this to the Ukrainians?


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1577168391005167620


----------



## CBH99

McG said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1577168391005167620


I know we can’t foresee the future with absolute certainty, and this is one of those questions which will most likely be unanswered.  

But since the sham referendums of the areas annexed make those areas a part of Russia (according to…Russia) then technically Russia could have legally sent those conscripts to those areas as reinforcements and/or to hold the ground, since technically they wouldn’t be deploying outside of Russia.  

Again…according only to Russia…



Master Strategist indeed.  Too bad the Ukrainians have a bigger say in the matter than you do, eh Vlad?  🇺🇦


----------



## GR66

CBH99 said:


> I know we can’t foresee the future with absolute certainty, and this is one of those questions which will most likely be unanswered.
> 
> But since the sham referendums of the areas annexed make those areas a part of Russia (according to…Russia) then technically Russia could have legally sent those conscripts to those areas as reinforcements and/or to hold the ground, since technically they wouldn’t be deploying outside of Russia.
> 
> Again…according only to Russia…
> 
> 
> 
> Master Strategist indeed.  Too bad the Ukrainians have a bigger say in the matter than you do, eh Vlad?  🇺🇦


That's a good point.  Can't wait to see how the new conscripts react to being sent to "Novorossiya" (New Russia) to defend the Motherland.


----------



## TacticalTea

CBH99 said:


> I know we can’t foresee the future with absolute certainty, and this is one of those questions which will most likely be unanswered.
> 
> But since the sham referendums of the areas annexed make those areas a part of Russia (according to…Russia) then technically Russia could have legally sent those conscripts to those areas as reinforcements and/or to hold the ground, since technically they wouldn’t be deploying outside of Russia.
> 
> Again…according only to Russia…
> 
> 
> 
> Master Strategist indeed.  Too bad the Ukrainians have a bigger say in the matter than you do, eh Vlad?  🇺🇦


Probably a big reason for the annexation, indeed.


----------



## Eaglelord17

Its not like it not being part of Russia prevented conscripts from ending up in Ukraine in the first place (against their own laws).


----------



## Skysix

GR66 said:


> That's a good point.  Can't wait to see how the new conscripts react to being sent to "Novorossiya" (New Russia) to defend the Motherland.


Many already have been. Now a mix of dead, injured and disillusioned.

Maybe as a gesture of goodwill and support of the PEOPLE of Russia Ukraine should donate 300,000 body bags to the Russian Red Cross so the drafted can be returned to their parents.


----------



## FSTO

So I superimposed the Ukraine on the Prairies to give myself some perspective of the distances involved in this front.
I tossed in our bases on the prairies and SAC Minot ND for further reference.


----------



## childs56

FSTO said:


> So I superimposed the Ukraine on the Prairies to give myself some perspective of the distances involved in this front.
> I tossed in our bases on the prairies and SAC Minot ND for further reference.
> View attachment 74017


It really is not that big if you really think of it.


----------



## FSTO

A Line from Maple Creek to Dauphin would suck up a lot troops is all I’m saying.


----------



## Kirkhill

FSTO said:


> A Line from Maple Creek to Dauphin would suck up a lot troops is all I’m saying.


Very, very true that.

Suffield is about the size of the area of Northern Donetsk cleared over this past week or two.


----------



## Kirkhill

Trouble in Watermelon County.  Now we get to see how fast the Russians can run.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xvprno


----------



## Kirkhill

Some senses of the state of play in Kherson - from the conservative to the enthusiastic.

Whatever is happening it appears to be happening at pace.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1577378266834518016

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xvih5x


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xvl52w


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xvak7e


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xvj7fc


----------



## Kirkhill

And there is this.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1577399012809969680


----------



## Kirkhill

Some of the sights and sounds of Kherson.  Looks a lot like Dundurn.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xvppov


----------



## Good2Golf

Kirkhill said:


> Some of the sights and sounds of Kherson.  Looks a lot like Dundurn.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xvppov


Another ubiquitous white Toyota pick-up on the scene, supporting operations! _Slava Toyotii!_


----------



## McG

FSTO said:


> So I superimposed the Ukraine on the Prairies to give myself some perspective of the distances involved in this front.
> I tossed in our bases on the prairies and SAC Minot ND for further reference.
> View attachment 74017


You have placed Ukraine on the Ex UNIFIED RESOLVE trace that was recently retired after many years of use. If those exercises taught anything, it is that 3 or 4 divisions should be more than enough to quickly and decisively clear the whole thing.

… unless maybe those exercises did not reflect a sound use of resources.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Kirkhill said:


> Some of the sights and sounds of Kherson.  Looks a lot like Dundurn.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xvppov


Interesting shot on a MG-42 mounted on the jeep towards end of clip.


----------



## FSTO

McG said:


> You have placed Ukraine on the Ex UNIFIED RESOLVE trace that was recently retired after many years of use. If those exercises taught anything, it is that 3 or 4 divisions should be more than enough to quickly and decisively clear the whole thing.
> 
> … unless maybe those exercises did not reflect a sound use of resources.


Totally unintentional on my part. ☺️


----------



## Eaglelord17

Retired AF Guy said:


> Interesting shot on a MG-42 mounted on the jeep towards end of clip.


If I had to guess its likely a German MG3 which is their updated to 7.62 NATO version of the MG-42. Considering they are slowly replacing the MG3 with the MG 5 there is also likely a good amount of them available to send as aid to Ukraine.


----------



## FJAG

Eaglelord17 said:


> If I had to guess its likely a German MG3 which is their updated to 7.62 NATO version of the MG-42. Considering they are slowly replacing the MG3 with the MG 5 there is also likely a good amount of them available to send as aid to Ukraine.


Agree. I did not see any listing of old MG42's in the Ukrainian inventory but Germany has donated a limited number of MG3s.

🍻


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Eaglelord17 said:


> If I had to guess its likely a German MG3 which is their updated to 7.62 NATO version of the MG-42. Considering they are slowly replacing the MG3 with the MG 5 there is also likely a good amount of them available to send as aid to Ukraine.


Sorry, you are absolutely right. Just finished reading Ben McIntyres *Rogue Hero's *about the SAS in WW2, so my brain is still in WW2 mode.


----------



## Skysix

Remember the sunflower seeds in your pockets grandma back in March?

Someone did a very good cartoon using that theme. If not deliberate anti-war propoganda aimed at the Russian hinterland I would be surprised. Still good though.


----------



## Skysix

Ukraine is advancing faster than I can read about Ukraine advancing these days.


----------



## Spencer100

Thoughts

If and when this is over and Ukraine can pull out a W, the Ukrainian army will be the most experienced army in the world with nation to nation modern combat.  Will they be ones training others in the future?  

One more thought is if not else Ukrainians are winning the PR side of battle in a landside.  The amount and quality of video, internet, media etc. is amazing.  Yes the Russian have lost some of the global connections to get their side and point out but the stuff coming out is still not as good.  I think this will be one of the biggest area that will be studied and talked about in the future.  It has really helped them turn the tables.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Interesting comment about vehicles being "Artillery magnets"









						Ukraine War, 4 October 2022: Kherson
					

Good morning everybody!




					medium.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

Colin Parkinson said:


> Interesting comment about vehicles being "Artillery magnets"
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine War, 4 October 2022: Kherson
> 
> 
> Good morning everybody!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> medium.com



"Tanks: they're good for chewing up roads and drawing fire."

One of my old man's favourite quotes


----------



## Skysix

Nicely done prisoner capture. Female section leader. If I count it right one of the grunts has 6x30 on his NATO plate carrier and another 6x30 on each hip in a SovBlock belt/pouch rig attached under the carrier.

And just in case 570 7.62/5.45x39 isn't enough another 5 pistol mags uunder each arm for a total of 133 9mm if one is in the chamber!


----------



## Kirkhill

> On Sunday, 2 October, the Initial, multi-prong assault quickly collapsed positions of the 205th Cossack in Myroliubivka and Ljubymivka, causing its survivors to flee (reportedly: all the way to Beryslav, some 80km further south).



Which probably explains reports of Ukrainians in Beryslav --- "They're right behind us!!!" 



> This is getting so far that there are times and sectors of the frontline where Ukrainians — who, arguably, are better equipped with UAVs — are* spending 30, 40, 50% of the flight time of their UAVs to run reconnaissance of their own positions*, just in order to make sure these couldn’t be found by the Russian UAVs.



Very interesting.



> *Ukrainians are protecting their ‘most precious’ self-propelled artillery pieces 1-for-1 by such rare stuff like German-made Gepard Flakpanzer: *whenever the artillery piece in question goes into fire action, the Flakpanzer is responsible to protect it — from enemy UAVs, and thus from enemy artillery.



@FJAG for commentary.



> Second principal target of artillery are fortifications



Fortifications, kill zones, mortars, ATGMs, mines, hidden tanks, UAVs - the strength of the defence.  So why are Ukrainian lines holding but Russian lines are collapsing?  Morale.



> Ukrainian infantry is frequently operating ‘miles away’ from its supporting vehicles. I.e. ZSU infantry is much harder to find.



A strong back and a good pair of knees?  Helicopters and light vehicles?  Debussing where the Russians aren't?

Neat piece @Colin Parkinson


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Kirkhill said:


> Which probably explains reports of Ukrainians in Beryslav --- "They're right behind us!!!"
> 
> Fortifications, kill zones, mortars, ATGMs, mines, hidden tanks, UAVs - the strength of the defence.  So why are Ukrainian lines holding but Russian lines are collapsing?  Morale.
> 
> A strong back and a good pair of knees?  Helicopters and light vehicles?  Debussing where the Russians aren't?


The Ukrainian infantry has been operating a lot like the independent Ranger companies of old. They're moving fast, probing and conducting recce, while also seizing the initiative where it is vice waiting to reinforce for a larger offensive. The fact that most of the Recce element for the UA is UAV based, frees up a lot of folks to go start fires and wear down morale, while also having eyes on for artillery and rockets to wipe out the heavier toys Russia still has to play with.

It's been fascinating to watch academically, but I cannot imagine the horror both sides have faced the past 8 and a half months.


----------



## MilEME09

rmc_wannabe said:


> The Ukrainian infantry has been operating a lot like the independent Ranger companies of old. They're moving fast, probing and conducting recce, while also seizing the initiative where it is vice waiting to reinforce for a larger offensive. The fact that most of the Recce element for the UA is UAV based, frees up a lot of folks to go start fires and wear down morale, while also having eyes on for artillery and rockets to wipe out the heavier toys Russia still has to play with.
> 
> It's been fascinating to watch academically, but I cannot imagine the horror both sides have faced the past 8 and a half months.


It's also horrifying and sobering to think some of those being trained by us in the UK right now will not see the end of the war


----------



## rmc_wannabe

MilEME09 said:


> It's also horrifying and sobering to think some of those being trained by us in the UK right now will not see the end of the war


We do the best we can to make them the best we can. 

I'm certain the training provided during the  8 years of Op UNIFER and JTFC-U prevented the complete collapse of the UA on 24 Feb.


----------



## Kirkhill

rmc_wannabe said:


> The Ukrainian infantry has been operating a lot like the independent Ranger companies of old. They're moving fast, probing and conducting recce, while also seizing the initiative where it is vice waiting to reinforce for a larger offensive. The fact that most of the Recce element for the UA is UAV based, frees up a lot of folks to go start fires and wear down morale, while also having eyes on for artillery and rockets to wipe out the heavier toys Russia still has to play with.
> 
> It's been fascinating to watch academically, but I cannot imagine the horror both sides have faced the past 8 and a half months.



Related, I think, is this set of videos - 

HMMWVs rocking and rolling cross country


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xwowrw


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xwi97f

HMMWV survives direct hit by tank (end of video)


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xut1aw

Not bad for a 5 tonne vehicle


----------



## Spencer100

rmc_wannabe said:


> We do the best we can to make them the best we can.
> 
> I'm certain the training provided during the  8 years of Op UNIFER and JTFC-U prevented the complete collapse of the UA on 24 Feb.


Like I said earlier...when it is over they may be the ones training us.


----------



## Skysix

Any military that passes up the chance to bring UA vets at the 06, 03, E8 and E5 levels into their staff, command and leadership schools because they are not 'American' or 'Canadian' or 'German' (pick your country of choice) or the content makes their existing TRADOC look foolish or inadequate will be negligent. Line level peeps can see and will hear from returnees how the real world works and will lose faith in their COC.

Look at how the various SF disciplines changed how they operated from the pre GW2 era to now... Based on real world lessons learned.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Kirkhill said:


> Related, I think, is this set of videos -
> 
> HMMWVs rocking and rolling cross country
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xwowrw
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xwi97f
> 
> HMMWV survives direct hit by tank (end of video)
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xut1aw
> 
> Not bad for a 5 tonne vehicle


This is where the Humvee shines, a wide lightly armoured vehicle with good cross country ability and the wide track makes it an excellent heavy weapons vehicle.


----------



## Kirkhill

Mick Ryan appreciation of the situation to date.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1577528519671701504


----------



## daftandbarmy

He's got a good point...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1577703532932775938


----------



## Czech_pivo

daftandbarmy said:


> He's got a good point...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1577703532932775938


The question is: Is this guy sitting in his 10 million pound Georgian walkup in Belgravia spouting this rant or, is he on the ground at home in Dagestan?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Infantry: another day at the office:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578006655907905536


----------



## Czech_pivo

daftandbarmy said:


> Infantry: another day at the office:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578006655907905536


Why is the foxhole all alone? Is it an observation post? In the end of the video a Ukrainian soldier is standing alone and totally exposed while firing into the foxhole, again, why is this Russian foxhole an orphan?


----------



## Kirkhill

> *"We smashed up all their artillery units before launching the offensive,*



Ukrainians are claiming the Russians no longer have arty superiority.









						Ukraine is no longer low on artillery ammo because Russia abandoned so much in recent retreats, report says
					

Ukraine now has a good supply of artillery shells it had almost run out of — thanks to fleeing Russian troops, The Wall Street Journal reported.




					www.businessinsider.com
				




Mind you I think it would have to be a brave gunner who loaded some of that Russian surplus ammunition.


----------



## Kirkhill

Related


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xx11j3


----------



## brihard

Czech_pivo said:


> Why is the foxhole all alone? Is it an observation post? In the end of the video a Ukrainian soldier is standing alone and totally exposed while firing into the foxhole, again, why is this Russian foxhole an orphan?


We don’t know that it is. Narrow field of view. We don’t know what’s beside and behind that Ukrainian soldier.

Solid grenade placement. I expected the followup sweep of the trench, but clearly the video’s been chopped a bit.


----------



## Kirkhill

A Territorial's view of life at the front...



			https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/10/06/its-so-scary-here-and-it-smells-of-death-a-day-in-the-life-of-a-ukrainian-soldier/


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Kirkhill said:


> Related, I think, is this set of videos -
> 
> HMMWVs rocking and rolling cross country
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xwowrw
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xwi97f
> 
> HMMWV survives direct hit by tank (end of video)
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xut1aw
> 
> Not bad for a 5 tonne vehicle


More likely the Sabot went right through, missing everyone.


----------



## Kirkhill

Colin Parkinson said:


> More likely the Sabot went right through, missing everyone.



Another reason to go to church.


----------



## Skysix

Dismounts riding on a tank that gets hit with an ATGM yet prompt reaction to the ambush. I bet their ears are f'd up though.


----------



## Skysix

daftandbarmy said:


> He's got a good point...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1577703532932775938


One that applies to many NATO members political classes as well


----------



## daftandbarmy

Skysix said:


> One that applies to many NATO members political classes as well



Except for the UK where the Royal Family all do some kind of national level service, military or otherwise. And many members of the 'social elite' serve in the military. A great example, of course....


----------



## Skysix




----------



## Remius

daftandbarmy said:


> Except for the UK where the Royal Family all do some kind of national level service, military or otherwise. And many members of the 'social elite' serve in the military. A great example, of course....


I would argue that many in the US political class have served and have had their sons and daughters serve.  Not all, I get it but enough.


----------



## KevinB

Skysix said:


> Dismounts riding on a tank that gets hit with an ATGM yet prompt reaction to the ambush. I bet their ears are f'd up though.


Was actually a mine strike - based on another video of the incident there was no Russian direct fire.


----------



## Skysix

@KevinB: I guess that is why they ride on top!

Map timelapse of the recent advances (not my taste in music, but hey)






And a synopsis/analysis from a fairly neutral point of view of the mobilisation fiasco and battlefield changes plus interesting view of internal Russian Army command level politics


----------



## Kirkhill

An opinion piece on the UK's Forces Net.


----------



## brihard




----------



## Kirkhill

Ukraine's 'indirect methods' help it avoid fighting a war it can't win with Russia, top British commanders say
					

Kyiv's creative use of technology and other decisions have shaped the battlefield in its favor, two top British military officers said in September.




					www.businessinsider.com
				




Some might be inclined to reference the Lanchester Strategy (same guy that designed a submachine gun).









						Lanchester Strategy Definition
					

The Lanchester Strategy is a battle concept taken from military strategy that can also be applied by businesses entering new markets.




					www.investopedia.com


----------



## Kirkhill

brihard said:


> View attachment 74075




What? They just showed up in Sarah Palin's back yard?


----------



## McG

Build a wall!


----------



## Remius

McG said:


> Build a wall!


Ship them to Martha’s Vineyard via Florida.


----------



## lenaitch

Kirkhill said:


> What? They just showed up in Sarah Palin's back yard?


She said she could see Russia from her kitchen window.  Why didn't she see them coming?


----------



## Kirkhill

> _GIBSON: What insight into Russian actions, particularly in the last couple of weeks, does the proximity of the state give you?
> PALIN: They're our next-door neighbors and you can actually see Russia from land here in Alaska, from an island in Alaska._





> No, the real Sarah Palin didn't actually say that she "could see Russia from her house." This quote was sometimes attributed to her after _Saturday Night Live_ aired its first sketch featuring Tina Fey doing a spot-on Sarah Palin impression in 2008.








						Quotes - I can see Russia from my house!
					

I can see Russia from my house! Get all the details, meaning, context, and even a pretentious factor for good measure.




					www.shmoop.com
				




Jus' sayin'.


----------



## ueo

McG said:


> Signs of Russian desperation growing.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1576342007035092992


Hmmm another old man in a bad suit, speaking for all Russians.


----------



## Brad Sallows

Amusing that a comedy skit is somewhat widely believed to be true.  Sheds some insight into the value of assigning any weight on the basis of what people believe to be true.


----------



## Kirkhill

Brad Sallows said:


> Amusing that a comedy skit is somewhat widely believed to be true.  Sheds some insight into the value of assigning any weight on the basis of what people believe to be true.


But then again there is that "perception is reality" thing.


----------



## Kirkhill

The tide of this war has shifted, and the Russians are far less brave​On the banks of the Oskil river, it is clear to Ukraine's poised troops that the enemy is short of ammunition and struggling to respond

ByRoland Oliphant, SENIOR FOREIGN CORRESPONDENT and Julian Simmonds, PHOTOGRAPHER, IN KHARKIV REGION7 October 2022 • 6:34pm


*There is a strange ritual to artillery fire.
The most important is the camouflage. *When properly wrapped up in foliage, the muzzles of their howitzers look like fungi. Then there are the messages to be written on shells. On Thursday, it was “for Zaporizhia”, where Russian missiles had wreaked carnage in the morning.
A battery commander scribbles calculations on a pad of paper and barks the customary countdown to fire: “Three hundred - thirty - three!”
The howitzers bark yellow flames. There is a pause of a few minutes while whoever called in the strike assesses damage, then another salvo.
In the interim,* a cacophony of automatic fire erupts on the other side of the wood: a Russian drone has been spotted. Rather than taking cover, the gunners ignore it.
Their confidence is a mark of how profoundly the tide of this war has changed.*

Back in May, these artillery men from Ukraine’s 14th mechanised brigade were struggling to hold back Russia's relentless offensive in Donbas, trying to answer an enemy firing five or seven times more shells than they could.
But last month they took part in the offensive that liberated the Kharkiv region. Now they have crossed the strategic Oskil river and are firing in support of an imminent battle to liberate neighbouring Luhansk oblast. Now, it is the Russians struggling to respond.
The target of this strike was “a group of Russian infantry. A bunch of f---ts, to use the technical term,” said Denis, the officer commanding, who asks his surname and rank to be withheld.
But Denis, a career artillery man with more than two decades of service, mixes his disdain for the enemy with a grudging professional respect of his Russian opposite numbers.
“If I was giving them marks out of five, they’d get a four plus,” he said of the enemy artillerists. “They’re working on their own kit and we are getting to grips with different modern things.”
This battery, like most of the Ukrainian army, has yet to benefit from high-profile Western deliveries. *Their guns are still self-propelled 122 mm SAU’s *- Soviet built weapons which the men wryly declare were “born in 1970.” Denis does not hide his desire for modern replacements.
The Russian artillery set the tone for the first half of the war, battering cities like Mariupol into submission and blasting a path through Donbas for Vladimir Putin’s tanks and infantry.

But *the balance of power on the battlefield has changed decisively.*
When *the Russians *were routed in Kharkiv region at the beginning of last month, their generals *withdrew the survivors behind the Oskil river *to establish a new defensive line.
On the map, it was a good move.
A fast-flowing tributary of the Siversky Donets, the Oskil was the only major natural obstacle between the Ukrainians and Luhansk region.
*But the right, western bank is made of hills that dominate the eastern side for miles. Within days, the Ukrainians had forced a crossing* and were pushing the Russians back again.
*The speed and violence of the battle for Oskil is still evident.*
At one crossing, a hamlet has been reduced to a group of craters. The remains of one or several tanks - the wreckage is so mixed up it is impossible to count - is strewn amongst rubble and destroyed trees.
The smell of burnt metal and plastic is mixed with the stench of decaying human flesh. Some soldiers, from one army or the other, are still here.
Across the river, total destruction gives way to evidence of chaotic retreat. Abandoned and destroyed armoured vehicles with the letter Z still stand on the road sides.

Two corpses, one in green military fatigues, the other in blue trousers that might have been a policeman’s uniform, lie decomposing nearby.
Today the bridgehead is in places 15 miles deep, and growing daily.
In the coming days and weeks, Russian and Ukrainian commentators agree, it will provide the springboard for an assault on the key Luhansk region town of Svatove.
And despite Vladimir Putin’s promises of mobilised reinforcements, *the Russians seem to be short of ammunition* and unable to respond to more than one threat at a time.
“*They are concentrating on our infantry at the moment, *trying to hold back the offensive. And *that means they’re not often answering*,” said Valentin, 47-year-old who fought with the unit during the gruelling battles of Donbas in spring.
*“At the absolute minimum we are now on par with them,” he added. “But we are probably outgunning them.”*
“If before the Russians would dump everything to burn up a whole forest or field, now they are now being more sparing. They are trying to hit specific targets,” added David, a 24-year-old history graduate in the same unit.
“*When you see on the news that a Russian ammunition dump has been hit, about two days later they stop firing*. So they seem to be able to gather enough somehow to keep firing for two days, then they run out,” he added.

*The same parsimony goes for reconnaissance drones, which at the beginning of the war were a constant presence in the skies.
These days the Russians are sending over one or two a day *- another sign they are running short, he guesses.
They have not vanished, however.
About a week ago, the gunners first heard the moped-like buzz of petrol-powered Iranian kamikaze drones already seen on other parts of the front.
They are slow moving enough to be visible to the naked eye and the battery’s air-defence detachment say they brought one down with machine gun fire - but they remain a deadly threat.
*For the gunners, the rapid advance means constant relocation, constant digging of fresh trenches, and constant attention to camouflage.*
It is both tiring and dangerous. *Often mines have not been cleared because there is more work than there are sappers available.*
Bed is a sleeping bag under a tarpaulin tied to the side of an armoured vehicle. Thursday was fine and the ground here is sandy and well drained, but the floors of their hastily-dug blindages quickly turn into quagmires when it rains.
No one is looking forward to winter in the field​There are benefits to fighting in the autumn, however.
It is high mushroom season, and their current woodland billet is full of them. The men have stacked large species called belyanki next to their camp fire.
In the woods the men fry them up in a pan over a campfire, and have stacked their latest harvest nearby for the next meal.
Back at the house serving as battalion headquarters, where there is a real kitchen, they turn them into soup and an exceptional casserole involving sour cream and dill.


It is worth enjoying the fruits of autumn while they can, says Denis. No one is looking forward to winter in the field.
Far away on the horizon, bright yellow sparks flew one by one into the late afternoon sky. A Himars launch, destined for some target in the Russian rear.
Meanwhile, a murmuration of birds arcs over a grain elevator, presumably enjoying the feast laid out when the shelling cracked open the concrete towers.
At a nearby pig farm, the livestock have escaped bullet-pocket aluminium sheds and are happily rooting around the yards unattended.
The birds and the animals are making the most of a landscape suddenly stripped of human life.
At the current rate of advance, soon even the soldiers may be gone - marching east to dig into a new wood.
*“The Russians are not like the Russians we were fighting on February 24,”* said David, the young soldier at the camouflaged battery. *“They’re not as brave.”*










						The tide of this war has shifted, and the Russians are far less brave
					

On the banks of the Oskil river, it is clear to Ukraine's poised troops that the enemy is short of ammunition and struggling to respond




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## suffolkowner

Ukrainian Kamikaze Drone Attacks Bomber Base Deep In Russia (Updated)
					

A Ukrainian drone attacked a Russian Tu-22M bomber base, which has been a hub for strikes on Ukrainian targets, far across the border.




					www.thedrive.com
				




another crazy, ballsy if true. These are resources that Russia really cant afford to lose or replace. Just the attempt alone should keep the Russians up at night


----------



## TacticalTea

Kirkhill said:


> *But the right, western bank is made of hills that dominate the eastern side for miles. Within days, the Ukrainians had forced a crossing* and were pushing the Russians back again.


To illustrate this, a map centered on Kupyansk:

Red: 200m
Green: 100m
Blue: 60m

Similar deal in the Kherson area, which was brought up elsewhere (though not immediately important, might become so in 1-3 months):


----------



## Kirkhill

Interview with 14th Mech Bde Commander - Colonel Ohrimenko

On Feb 23/24 relocated from Rivne to cover 300 km of frontage, across 3 Oblasts, in the Kyiv area.




> *(Interviewer)*: *Where did the brigade encounter a full-scale invasion*?
> 
> *(Ohrimenko)*: At that time, *the military unit was at the Rivne* (Western Ukraine - 4 hours west of Kyiv) combined military training ground at the final stage of reconciliation. We marched, having received appropriate combat orders *to perform tasks in the Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and partially Volyn regions to cover the section of the state border.
> 
> (I)*: What were your words to the staff on February 24?
> 
> *(O)*: Every day, going around the units, I emphasized in conversations with the personnel that we must be ready for any development of events – intelligence data also confirmed this. Therefore, everyone understood that we would have to fight in different conditions. On the night of February 23-24, it was not necessary to say much: when I received the command to raise the brigade on a combat alert, only one word sounded – “It has begun!” [would be one word in Ukrainian] This was the signal by which we had to raise the personnel. At that time, the brigade’s plan and movement route had already been worked out. *At 4 a.m., after units of the Russian army struck the territory of Ukraine, we began marching in the designated directions to carry out combat missions.
> 
> (I)*: The brigade then moved to Kyiv Oblast and Zhytomyr Oblast. How difficult was it? What tactics did you have to choose then, considering the fact that the enemy was superior in strength and means?
> 
> *(O)*: Each war and each combat mission requires specific approaches. We must approach everything individually.* In our case, the difficulty was, first of all, the width of the defense front. In our case, it was about 300 km — instead of the 20 specified in the tactical regulations*. In addition, *the march from the Rivne training ground on combat vehicles over such a long distance also required considerable personnel training.*
> 
> We chose the following tactics: *we used small mobile combat groups that could work from ambushes*, inflict damage on the enemy, who *outnumbered us by a ratio of one to twenty, or even to thirty,* and advanced in large columns, battalion-tactical groups, entire regiments, and divisions. It was *a “pounce tactic” – two or three tanks, together with anti-tank means, including Javelins and NLAW, would destroy several units of enemy equipment and withdraw* in another direction, and so on. This *allowed us to disperse the enemy’s forces*,* to create panic *among his personnel since the enemy did not understand where the next attack would come from. Thus, we significantly reduced Russian units’ combat potential, which thought they would march into Kyiv and establish their power there without fighting. In addition, *the individual training of each service member played a significant role in our successful actions*. Each had his task and performed it with precision.
> 
> *(I)*: At what moment did you realize that the enemy was fleeing from that direction?
> 
> *(O)*: *The turning point was when our brigade and units of the DShV [Ukrainian Air Assault Forces] took and held Makariv and Makariv district*. Several advanced combat groups were operating in that direction, led, in particular, by my deputies. Thanks to such actions, *on the 51st kilometer of the Kyiv-Zhytomyr highway, the enemy suffered irreparable losses in manpower and equipment and was unable to advance furthe*r. So, for example, *one of our units, led by a platoon commander, destroyed more than 30 units of enemy equipment in a day around the village of Sytnyaki,* and they did not even count how much manpower.* After our advanced groups, in which tank units played the main role*, working in this direction, *the brigade’s main forces entered, completing the destruction of the enemy and pushing him to the state border*. In desperation, the Russians began actively, but chaotically, to use aviation to launch missile strikes on residential areas. This indicated that the enemy’s personnel could not cope with the task despite the superiority in strength and equipment. And this became the biggest motivation for our Princely Brigade! We are on our land and know what we are fighting for!
> 
> *(I)*: During the large-scale invasion, your brigade fought against the Russians on several fronts. Can you tell us how the nature of the battles in this or that region differs?
> 
> *(O)*: *Each battle has its character*… *You need to consider the peculiarities of the terrain, terrain, weather, and season*. We began to operate in the *winter in the Kyiv and Zhytomyr direction*s – this is one specific feature.* Then*, the unit’s path passed *through the south of Ukraine*.* Then* there were the *Kharkiv,* *Donetsk*, and *Zaporizhzhia* regions. Now — *Kharkiv region again*. Therefore, the tactics of action, of course, change just as the enemy changes. For example, *the regular Russian army has almost ceased to exist*, and now it has been replaced by* unprepared mobilized ones, which do not meet the requirements*. Therefore they are unable to complete the task.
> 
> *(I)*: *Do you always know which units of the RU army you are dealing with?
> 
> (O): Of course, our intelligence works perfectly. I will tell you this – before entering the appropriate area and taking a defensive or offensive line, the scouts reveal the enemy’s order of battle, in particular, the names of the commanding staff of companies, battalions, divizions, divisions, and armies. *We study the social portrait of each such official and draw certain conclusions.
> 
> *(I)*: And how did the personnel of your Princely Brigade show themselves? What can you say about your subordinates? Perhaps there are examples of the bright, heroic behavior of warriors?
> 
> *(O)*: There are many such examples! One of those I can cite is when *a tank crew destroyed 12 enemy tanks during the seven months of the Russian invasion*! I found out about it myself only recently. I ask – “why didn’t they tell?” To which I received the answer: “What is there to tell?* I’m just doing my job*. What difference does it make in how many tanks I destroy – three, five, eight, or twelve? I received a task, went out, and completed it.” Our warriors are heroic people who risk their lives and do not flaunt their achievements. They do their job perfectly! And I, in turn, will petition the higher command for the awards they deserve.
> 
> *(I)*: Are there Heroes of Ukraine in your brigade?
> 
> *(O)*: A separate mechanized brigade named after Prince Roman the Great during the period of the full-scale invasion has, perhaps, the largest number of Heroes of Ukraine. *Twelve of our service members were awarded this honorary title. Unfortunately, posthumously…
> 
> (I)*: Let’s talk about *counteroffensive actions in the Kharkiv region* about the role of your brigade in this operation…
> 
> *(O)*: If we consider *joint actions with other units and other components of the Security and Defense Forces*, we cannot talk about any specific role of our brigade in the counteroffensive operation. Everyone fights heroically and performs tasks in incredibly difficult conditions!* I always try to understand clearly, first of all for myself, the intention of the senior commander*, the ultimate goal, the role and place of each of our units, and the possibility of changes during the execution of combat missions. I am trying to predict the enemy’s actions in this or that situation. I rely on the actions of my neighbors and units that support us in making decisions. *During the last seven months, our brigade fought in six directions while defending only one and advancing on five*. I think that *the particularity of our brigade consists precisely of offensive and assault actions in breaking through the defense of individual areas of the enemy*, creating conditions for his encirclement.
> 
> *(I)*: Purely hypothetically, how do you assess our offensive actions in Donbas?
> 
> *(O)*: Everything depends on the enemy — composition, position, and balance of forces. It is possible to carry out tasks in any direction. Still, *the success of any operation depends on the availability of weapons and ammunition, preparedness and motivation of the personnel, tactics of the enem*y, etc. – this is a systematic approach. I do not undertake to assess the strategic situation in the entire operational zone, but I think that if we create the appropriate conditions and increase the combat potential, taking into account artillery and aviation, we can also talk about a counteroffensive in Donbas. I can say with confidence that the command has this goal. But I will not tell you the details.
> 
> *(I)*: Speaking of artillery, *can you tell us about the help of our Western partners*? Does your brigade have the latest weapons?
> 
> *(O)*: Without going into details, I will say that *our brigade received a sufficient number of the latest artillery equipment*, which is currently successfully performing its tasks as *part of the brigade artillery group*. The professional use of foreign weapons by the Princely artillerymen makes it *possible to destroy the enemy’s firing positions, conduct a counter-battery fight*, and *allow our infantry to advance* and liberate Ukrainian lands.
> 
> *(I)*: What is your motivation to continue the fight against the Russian aggressor?
> 
> *(O)*: A rhetorical question… For me, this is a family… In a conversation with subordinates, I always say: “Your parents, your family can live in this house. What are your actions if the enemy starts to punch a hole in the fence of your enclosure? I, for example, will fight!”. Each of us must fight for our territories!
> 
> *(I)*: What did you feel and think at the moment when the enemy began to retreat for the first time?
> 
> *(O)*: What did I think about?… I was once again convinced that our army was powerful at that moment! We, Ukrainians, are specific people — throughout history, someone has tried to enslave us. But all attempts failed the enemy, so victory in this war will be on our side! In addition, by liberating the occupied territories, we made sure that the so-called second army of the world was just a PR! We convinced ourselves and the civilized world that we could defeat Russia, and we will do it! And I, for my part, felt professional satisfaction – my subordinates successfully performed the assigned tasks.
> 
> *(I): If you had the opportunity to personally address the President of Russia or the leadership of the RU army now, what would you say to them?
> 
> (O): I don’t want to contact them; we have nothing to talk about… With any of them!*
> 
> *(I)*: Your appeal to Ukrainians…
> 
> *(O)*: We will win! Soon! Hold on!
> 
> *(I)*: Thank you very much for the conversation.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578507241170210816


----------



## TacticalTea

Kirkhill said:


> At a nearby pig farm, the livestock have escaped bullet-pocket aluminium sheds and are happily rooting around the yards unattended.
> The birds and the animals are making the most of a landscape suddenly stripped of human life.


This reminds me of a poem someone posted here that told of birds going about their business as war rages around.

Anyone remember that? I haven't been able to find it again, to much chagrin.


----------



## Kirkhill

This Russian woman reminds me a lot of my Ukrainian sister-in-law.  Putin's in trouble.   


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578479466996981760


----------



## Mills Bomb

Russia must return Kuril Islands to Japan - Ukraine’s Parliament
					

Crimea is Ukraine, the Kuril Islands are Japan. Territories stolen by Russia around the world must be returned. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net
				




The Kuril Island dispute makes a couple headlines again.

Maybe Japan will make a nice contribution to Ukraine's arsenal.


----------



## OldSolduer

Mills Bomb said:


> Russia must return Kuril Islands to Japan - Ukraine’s Parliament
> 
> 
> Crimea is Ukraine, the Kuril Islands are Japan. Territories stolen by Russia around the world must be returned. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Kuril Island dispute makes a couple headlines again.
> 
> Maybe Japan will make a nice contribution to Ukraine's arsenal.


I have been listening to a podcast called "Super Nova in the East " - all about the Japanese in WW2. Very interesting culture during that time.


----------



## MilEME09

They did it, they actually did it


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578592745827930113


----------



## Good2Golf

Was only a matter of time.


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> They did it, they actually did it
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578592745827930113


----------



## MilEME09

Bridge is down 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578599931363065857


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> Bridge is down
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578599931363065857


----------



## MilEME09

daftandbarmy said:


>


Must of been smoking


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578605530792067072


----------



## Skysix

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2022/10/07/putin_has_taken_piracy_to_a_whole_new_level_857806.html?mc_cid=8ac2397126&mc_eid=8433720cb9


----------



## Skysix

MilEME09 said:


> Must of been smoking
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578605530792067072


So the road bridge had a missing section of roadway (passable or not?) and the rail bridge had a fuel train on it when it got hit? That intensity of fire and spilled fuel from ruptured tank cars will seriously damage if not drop a section as the girders soften and deform


----------



## Skysix

Road section of Crimean Bridge destroyed – Ukraine’s Air Force
					

On the Crimean Bridge, which connects Russia to the temporarily occupied Ukrainian Crimea, fuel tanks are burning and a section of the road has been destroyed. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Skysix

Still unclear if UAF, a missile, a drone, a VBIED, SF or just bad bearings in an overloaded truck.


----------



## Maxman1

Skysix said:


> https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2022/10/07/putin_has_taken_piracy_to_a_whole_new_level_857806.html?mc_cid=8ac2397126&mc_eid=8433720cb9



Maybe Ukraine should consider issuing letters of marque to willing vessel owners.


----------



## Maxman1

Skysix said:


> Still unclear if UAF, a missile, a drone, a VBIED, SF or just bad bearings in an overloaded truck.


Smoking in the no smoking area?


----------



## brihard

Holy dog balls. Looks like they hit it with an 18 wheeler VBIED. CCTV in link. Not sure if it was perfect timing that it got the train full of fuel tankers on the rail line as well.

EDIT TO ADD: Not 100% sure. But that looks like way too much fireball for an HE warhead.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578636212708921345


----------



## Ostrozac

TacticalTea said:


> This reminds me of a poem someone posted here that told of birds going about their business as war rages around.
> 
> Anyone remember that? I haven't been able to find it again, to much chagrin.


You might be thinking of “The Swift” by Wilfred Owen.






						The Swift | First World War Poetry Digital Archive
					






					ww1lit.nsms.ox.ac.uk
				




Of course, there’s also a single line from “In Flanders Fields” - ‘in the sky the larks, still bravely singing, fly. Scarce heard amid the guns below.’


----------



## Retired AF Guy

According to this report the Russians are stating that a truck bomb was responsible. However, wouldn't that entail a driver willing to sacrifice his/her life? I haven't seen anything that suggest the Ukrainians are that desperate.


----------



## brihard

Retired AF Guy said:


> According to this report the Russians are stating that a truck bomb was responsible. However, wouldn't that entail a driver willing to sacrifice his/her life? I haven't seen anything that suggest the Ukrainians are that desperate.


It only takes one. I would be surprised if there weren’t at least a few Ukrainians who, at this point, would be willing to make the sacrifice.

Interesting detail, if in fact it was that truck: the truck was driving from the Russian side to the Ukrainian one. If it was the truck, that means a colossal bomb was assembled on Russian soil.

May not necessarily had been a SVBIED. Could alternatively be a sealed trailer packed to the gills, and set up to detonate either remotely, or on something like a GPS trigger.


----------



## Good2Golf

Retired AF Guy said:


> According to this report the Russians are stating that a truck bomb was responsible. However, wouldn't that entail a driver willing to sacrifice his/her life? I haven't seen anything that suggest the Ukrainians are that desperate.


If you can:


…you can:


----------



## Lumber

Today is such a good day.


----------



## brihard




----------



## The Bread Guy

brihard said:


> View attachment 74106


----------



## The Bread Guy

Lumber said:


> Today is such a good day.
> 
> View attachment 74103
> 
> View attachment 74104View attachment 74105


Another one to add to the pile ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Change - ROUND!








						Russia Names New General to Lead Ukraine Offensive After Setbacks - The Moscow Times
					

Russia on Saturday appointed a new general to lead the Ukraine offensive after Moscow suffered a series of military setbacks that triggered criticism of the army's leadership.




					www.themoscowtimes.com


----------



## MilEME09

brihard said:


> It only takes one. I would be surprised if there weren’t at least a few Ukrainians who, at this point, would be willing to make the sacrifice.
> 
> Interesting detail, if in fact it was that truck: the truck was driving from the Russian side to the Ukrainian one. If it was the truck, that means a colossal bomb was assembled on Russian soil.
> 
> May not necessarily had been a SVBIED. Could alternatively be a sealed trailer packed to the gills, and set up to detonate either remotely, or on something like a GPS trigger.


We are also assuming Ukrainian, and not the NRA or other Russian dissidents


----------



## SeaKingTacco

MilEME09 said:


> We are also assuming Ukrainian, and not the NRA or other Russian dissidents


yup. This will be a tough one to figure out, but it “looks” vehicle borne, either truck or one of the rail cars.


----------



## TacticalTea

Ostrozac said:


> You might be thinking of “The Swift” by Wilfred Owen.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Swift | First World War Poetry Digital Archive
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ww1lit.nsms.ox.ac.uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Of course, there’s also a single line from “In Flanders Fields” - ‘in the sky the larks, still bravely singing, fly. Scarce heard amid the guns below.’


It was not Flanders Field but I seem to remember it was shorter than The Swift, and more specifically about war. Greatly appreciate the attempt though!


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> Must of been smoking
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578605530792067072



Or a Hot Box?

The Russians haven't been able to get bearings and their rolling stock is being taken out of commission - a few weeks back I saw a report saying something like 30% of their wagons were out of service due to bearings.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Anyone read this article previously…..might very well point towards what just happened.








						Russia Finds Mystery Vessel On Crimean Beach: Is It A New Ukrainian Attack Drone?
					

A kayak-sized vessel found washed up in Crimea may be a new type of drone boat used by Ukraine to carry out attacks on Russian warships. And it might have been supplied by the U.S.




					www.forbes.com


----------



## dapaterson

The truth is out there.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578711203819687936


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> Or a Hot Box?
> 
> The Russians haven't been able to get bearings and their rolling stock is being taken out of commission - a few weeks back I saw a report saying something like 30% of their wagons were out of service due to bearings.




Of course there could have been a small external assist - we're looking at a single tanker when we have a whole train of energy on fire.   A small charge on a couple of bearings, or even a slab of semtex on one of the tanks, remotely detonated.

Lots of unobtrusive ways to replicate Megantic and Mississauga


----------



## Czech_pivo

Have a look at this screen shot of when the explosion occurs - to this layman’s eyes I see 3 fireballs all occurring at once - left at the train, centre and then off to the right in the middle of the air - so what does this mean?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Czech_pivo said:


> Have a look at this screen shot of when the explosion occurs - to this layman’s eyes I see 3 fireballs all occurring at once - left at the train, centre and then off to the right in the middle of the air - so what does this mean?
> 
> View attachment 74115


I thinknit means you need to charge your phone 😉.

Seriously though, if it's 3 fireballs at roughly the same time, I would chalk it up to demolition. Who put the charges though, anyone's guess


----------



## Kirkhill

There seem to have been a number of militarily sensitive targets across Russia that have had ambiguous mishaps - Suffiiciently ambiguous that it makes it difficult to point fingers and launch special counter strikes.

In the meantime, here is the major consequence of the destruction of the bridge.   Not so much the impact on rail and road traffic with Crimea as the sea traffic with the Don.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xyog6w


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578771165593468929


----------



## Skysix

Smoking is a dangerous habit...


----------



## Blindspot

Skysix said:


> Smoking is a dangerous habit...


In the second angle, there's some kind of watercraft that appears under the bridge just before the blast. Lower right.


----------



## Kirkhill

https://twitter.com/DefMon3?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
		


Any expert thoughts on point of origin?
Train on fire.
Scorch marks on the road bed adjacent to train.
Roadway lifted on a wider front.


If an explosion happened at the level of the train could a blast wave reflect off the water with enough energy to lift the road bed from underneath?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> View attachment 74116
> 
> 
> 
> https://twitter.com/DefMon3?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
> 
> 
> 
> Any expert thoughts on point of origin?
> Train on fire.
> Scorch marks on the road bed adjacent to train.
> Roadway lifted on a wider front.
> 
> 
> If an explosion happened at the level of the train could a blast wave reflect off the water with enough energy to lift the road bed from underneath?



I have seen various bits of infrastructure that were targeted by 1000+lb truck borne IEDs and, although I'm no qualified engineer, find it amazing that one truck bomb could have cause all that damage.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

daftandbarmy said:


> I have seen various bits of infrastructure that were targeted by 1000+lb truck borne IEDs and, although I'm no qualified engineer, find it amazing that one truck bomb could have cause all that damage.


Much in the same boat as yourself, not a demolitions expert. 

However,  I have to imagine that a truck borne bomb would be doing a lot more "up and out" than taking out a section of steel and asphalt below it. A lot of the cratering/road destruction I saw in Afghan was due to buried IED implacements, rarely from SVBIEDs. 

This would be one hell of a truck bomb going down in the history books...


----------



## McG

Kirkhill said:


> View attachment 74116
> 
> 
> 
> https://twitter.com/DefMon3?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
> 
> 
> 
> Any expert thoughts on point of origin?
> Train on fire.
> Scorch marks on the road bed adjacent to train.
> Roadway lifted on a wider front.
> 
> 
> If an explosion happened at the level of the train could a blast wave reflect off the water with enough energy to lift the road bed from underneath?


Of the two gaps on the road bridge, the point of failure was in the gap on the left; same place as all the scorching. The second span (gap to the right without scortching) was dragged off its pier by the continuous asphalt surface that connects it to the span that was actually targeted.


----------



## OldSolduer

Kirkhill said:


> View attachment 74116
> 
> 
> 
> https://twitter.com/DefMon3?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
> 
> 
> 
> Any expert thoughts on point of origin?
> Train on fire.
> Scorch marks on the road bed adjacent to train.
> Roadway lifted on a wider front.
> 
> 
> If an explosion happened at the level of the train could a blast wave reflect off the water with enough energy to lift the road bed from underneath?


That's fuckin nasty. Whatever it was - it was big.


----------



## Good2Golf

Kirkhill said:


> View attachment 74116
> 
> 
> 
> https://twitter.com/DefMon3?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
> 
> 
> 
> Any expert thoughts on point of origin?
> Train on fire.
> Scorch marks on the road bed adjacent to train.
> Roadway lifted on a wider front.
> 
> 
> If an explosion happened at the level of the train could a blast wave reflect off the water with enough energy to lift the road bed from underneath?


I’m going with something really big and sea borne and initiated about the red X and that the railway was collateral damage from the drifting incendiary plume’s effects.  The blast plume looked like it had a fair bit of thermite in it as wel, so not surprised driving material lit some of the rail cars.


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

So the train was just good or bad luck depending on your side??


----------



## SeaKingTacco

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> So the train was just good or bad luck depending on your side??


I am with GTG, I “think” the train was just a bonus. Maybe the “targeteer”? Operator? Saw the train a decided to time the impact? Initiation? And do a twofer…


----------



## MilEME09

Given the thermal damage to the rail bridge of fuel burning at several hundred degrees, thr structural stability of that section may be compromised and ready to fail if hit again.


----------



## Quirky

RT reports the bridge is open to traffic.


----------



## brihard

Quirky said:


> RT reports the bridge is open to traffic.


Yeah, they had the other traffic lane open to at least light traffic quite quickly. Not overly surprising.


----------



## daftandbarmy

I'm with Michael on this one, probably a special forces op... no way can you get that much 'boom' in one truck:


----------



## brihard

daftandbarmy said:


> I'm with Michael on this one, probably a special forces op... no way can you get that much 'boom' in one truck:


Why not? Timothy McVeigh did. So did all kinds of assholes in Iraq and Afghanistan.


----------



## MilEME09

brihard said:


> Why not? Timothy McVeigh did. So did all kinds of assholes in Iraq and Afghanistan.


It was also focuses enough to take down only the east bound lanes, show blast damage to the west bound, and cause the train to go boom. To be this seems like the blast went up and out, with the direction of force being downward


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> It was also focuses enough to take down only the east bound lanes, show blast damage to the west bound, and cause the train to go boom. To be this seems like the blast went up and out, with the direction of force being downward


You blow up anything big enough right next to something, you’ll break it. But blast damage decreases rapidly with any distance; that’s why we taught 5s and 20s and stand-off for IEDs. We’re still talking a steel reinforced concrete bridge. That’s tough. And the blast was open air in all directions, even the ‘hard floor’ of the water had a fair bit of standoff. Other than the water, there was little to really focus it. I’m not surprised the adjacent roadway substantially survived.


----------



## Maxman1

SeaKingTacco said:


> I am with GTG, I “think” the train was just a bonus. Maybe the “targeteer”? Operator? Saw the train a decided to time the impact? Initiation? And do a twofer…



New member to the club?


----------



## MilEME09

brihard said:


> You blow up anything big enough right next to something, you’ll break it. But blast damage decreases rapidly with any distance; that’s why we taught 5s and 20s and stand-off for IEDs. We’re still talking a steel reinforced concrete bridge. That’s tough. And the blast was open air in all directions, even the ‘hard floor’ of the water had a fair bit of standoff. Other than the water, there was little to really focus it. I’m not surprised the adjacent roadway substantially survived.


That's the odd part to me, that's scorching, not blast damage from talking to a couple explosives people. Could it of been from fuel from the train? Yep but still no closer to determining that type of explosive used. Though regardless structurally I wouldn't trust this bridge.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578792963064598528


----------



## daftandbarmy

brihard said:


> You blow up anything big enough right next to something, you’ll break it. But blast damage decreases rapidly with any distance; that’s why we taught 5s and 20s and stand-off for IEDs. We’re still talking a steel reinforced concrete bridge. That’s tough. And the blast was open air in all directions, even the ‘hard floor’ of the water had a fair bit of standoff. Other than the water, there was little to really focus it. I’m not surprised the adjacent roadway substantially survived.



That was probably more than a hundred pounds of plastic explosive fixed just underneath the bridge deck, IMHO


----------



## Kirkhill

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578605530792067072


MilEME09 said:


> That's the odd part to me, that's scorching, not blast damage from talking to a couple explosives people. Could it of been from fuel from the train? Yep but still no closer to determining that type of explosive used. Though regardless structurally I wouldn't trust this bridge.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578792963064598528



The initiation appears to have been a massive fireball - lack of impact craters - a Fuel Air Explosion?


----------



## Good2Golf

brihard said:


> Why not? Timothy McVeigh did. So did all kinds of assholes in Iraq and Afghanistan.


👍🏼

In a Class 6 box truck. That was a Class 8 semi that looks to have been the subject vehicle…that’s a potential 20-30t load of ANFO.  Would also explain the sooty effect on the proximal Lt-twinned span.


----------



## McG

UK MoD gives thoughts on the bridge.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578978756932571136


----------



## lenaitch

Kirkhill said:


> View attachment 74116
> 
> 
> 
> https://twitter.com/DefMon3?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
> 
> 
> 
> Any expert thoughts on point of origin?
> Train on fire.
> Scorch marks on the road bed adjacent to train.
> Roadway lifted on a wider front.
> 
> 
> If an explosion happened at the level of the train could a blast wave reflect off the water with enough energy to lift the road bed from underneath?



It appears that a part of the road bridge is also off its pier at the far left of the photo.


----------



## MilEME09

lenaitch said:


> It appears that a part of the road bridge is also off its pier at the far left of the photo.


With the storm season coming, bad weather could cause more damage if thr structure has been compromised


----------



## Colin Parkinson

The Russian logistically system was already semi-obsolete, chaotic and stressed by many factors. If this attack reduced logistical flow by even 20%, that is going to have a major knock on effect to Russian efforts to stabilze the front.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Maybe we can hire him to be our Minister of Defense after the war?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579151499086761989


----------



## MilEME09

Colin Parkinson said:


> Maybe we can hire him to be our Minister of Defense after the war?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579151499086761989


Right after Operation Canifer: Ukrainian training of canadian forces in wainwright


----------



## Skysix

Chechen IMP/MRE


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kerch Bridge:  The Movie ...








						The Crimean Bridge which was blown up had a romcom made about it
					

One of the biggest developments in the Russian invasion of Ukraine over recent days is the destruction of a key bridge linking Crimea to Russia – and its caused the its unlikely role in a film has come to light as a result.Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of carrying out the attack on the Kerch...




					www.indy100.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson

A Russian claiming this was found by Gazprom by one of their pipelines in 2015. He says it's Western.


----------



## SeaKingTacco

Umm. Sure.


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579542278011383808


----------



## daftandbarmy

Might be a renewed thrust from Belarus...

Russian troops will return to Belarus in large numbers, Lukashenko says.​

WARSAW — President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko of Belarus announced on Monday that Russian troops would return to his country in large numbers, a replay of the military buildup there that preceded Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine.

“This won’t be just a thousand troops,” Mr. Lukashenko told senior military and security officials in Minsk, the Belarusian capital, after a meeting over the weekend with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in St. Petersburg.

In rambling remarks reported by the state news agency Belta, Mr. Lukashenko said that work had already started on the formation of what he called a “joint regional group of troops” to counter “possible aggression against our country” by NATO and Ukraine.

The Belarusian strongman, who has so far resisted pressure from Moscow to send in his own troops, accused Ukraine, which shares a long border with Belarus, of planning attacks from the south, without citing evidence.

“Ukraine doesn’t pose a threat to Belarus. It’s a lie,” Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, a Belarusian opposition leader, said. “I urge the Belarusian military: don’t follow criminal orders, refuse to participate in Putin’s war against our neighbors.”

Statements by Mr. Lukashenko, an eccentric and highly erratic dictator, are rarely an accurate guide to current or future events. Just days before Russian troops stationed in Belarus attacked Ukraine in February, he emphatically denied that his territory would be used by Russia, a close ally, to attack his country’s southern neighbor.

The establishment of a joint force with Russia will reinforce the view in Ukraine that Belarus is clearly a “co-aggressor,” a label that Mr. Lukashenko has rejected but which took on new force on Monday after a barrage of Russian missile attacks on Kyiv and elsewhere, some of them launched from Belarusian territory, according to Ukrainian officials.

He gave no details on Monday of the size or precise purpose of the new joint force, stirring speculation that Belarus might send troops into Ukraine to help Russia’s flailing military campaign. Alternatively, he could be preparing his country for the arrival of thousands of freshly drafted Russian soldiers, some of them former convicts and many of them ill trained.
“Be ready to receive these people in the near future and place them where necessary, according to our plan,” Mr. Lukashenko told his military chiefs.

During his visit to St. Petersburg, Belarusian state media reported that Mr. Lukashenko had “stressed the need to take measures in case of the deployment of nuclear weapons in Poland,” a remark that some analysts interpreted as preparing the ground for the possible deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus, something that he has long said would never happen.

Artyom Shraibman, a Belarusian political analyst now in exile in Warsaw, said Mr. Lukashenko would likely try to resist deploying his own troops in Ukraine because that “would be so dangerous for him on so many levels. It would be catastrophic politically.”

But, Mr. Shraibman added, “it is clear that what is left of his autonomy is eroding as we speak.”

Heavily dependent on Moscow for money, fuel and security assistance, all vital to his own survival after 28 years in power, Mr. Lukashenko is widely believed to be under growing Russian pressure to get more involved in the Ukraine war.

Russia massed tens of thousands of troops in Belarus before its February invasion and used Belarusian territory as a staging ground for its initial, unsuccessful assault on Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital. Moscow still has hundreds of troops in Belarus, from which it launches missiles and bombing raids, but their number is now expected to increase sharply.

Andrei Sannikov, who served as deputy foreign minister under Mr. Lukashenko during his early period in power but fled into exile after being jailed, said Mr. Lukashenko was “running scared,” caught between pressure from Russia to help its demoralized forces in Ukraine and the knowledge that sending in Belarusian troops would be hugely unpopular, even among his loyalists.

He predicted that ultimately “his boots will inevitably be on the ground in Ukraine” because Mr. Lukashenko “has no real choice.”
“He is not taking decisions on the war. Putin takes all the decisions and tells Lukashenko what to do,” Mr. Sannikov said.










						Russian troops will return to Belarus in large numbers, Lukashenko says.
					

Statements by President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, an eccentric and highly erratic dictator, are rarely an accurate guide to current or future events.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## brihard

I suspect Ukraine will have a very good idea of how well equipped and trained any such troops sent to Belarus are, and will have a good sense of what they need to keep back as a hedge in case they move. Any such reserve would probably still be reasonably well positioned to continue with training and reconstitution activities while guarding against a Belarusian flank. And Russian troops tied down in Belarus are Russian troops not in Ukraine.

Would be cool if the Poles would quietly but visibly shift some forces closer to Belarus, just to keep them looking over their shoulders.


----------



## Skysix

"we are witnessing the suicide of a nation"


----------



## Skysix

Colin Parkinson said:


> A Russian claiming this was found by Gazprom by one of their pipelines in 2015. He says it's Western.
> 
> View attachment 74149


Soooo, they find a command detonated western mine beside their pipeline - and do nothing?

Any video sleuths able to check metadata for tampering?


----------



## MilEME09

Skysix said:


> Soooo, they find a command detonated western mine beside their pipeline - and do nothing?
> 
> Any video sleuths able to check metadata for tampering?


Interestingly that mine uses a shape charge at its head, so blowing it beside like that wouldn't penetrate the casing of the pipeline. A lot of holes in this story.


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> A lot of holes in this story.


But not, it would appear, in the pipeline.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

A armoured assault by Russian BMP 1 & 2 along with two tanks








						Военный Осведомитель
					

Штурм укрепрайона ВСУ около населённого пункта Спорное (Соледарская городская община) силами 4-й мотострелковой бригады НМ ЛНР.  Бронетехника сближается с позициями противника, ведя огонь сходу, и высаживает мотострелков рядом с вражескими окопами. В атаке участвовало несколько единиц танков...




					t.me


----------



## The Bread Guy

brihard said:


> ... Would be cool if the Poles would quietly but visibly shift some forces closer to Belarus, just to keep them looking over their shoulders.


Methinks the Poles would love to unquietly poke Russians, but this would be intriguing, too.


----------



## daftandbarmy

I'd have to agree....


"Russia lacks the missiles to mount attacks of this sort often, as it is running out of stocks and the Ukrainians are claiming a high success rate in intercepting many of those already used," wrote Lawrence Freedman, emeritus professor of war studies at King's College London.

"This is not therefore a new war-winning strategy but a sociopath's tantrum."



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-war-attrition-attacks-ukraine-1.6612536


----------



## The Bread Guy

Sappers, UP!


> Today, Defence Minister Anita Anand visited Poland for a bilateral meeting with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defence of Poland, Mariusz Błaszczak. During the visit, the ministers signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to enhance and strengthen bilateral defence cooperation between Canada and Poland. The MOU creates new opportunities for military and civilian personnel to learn from one another, train together, and enable cross-industry defence collaboration to modernize military technology.
> 
> Minister Anand also announced that starting in the coming weeks Canada will deploy approximately 40 combat engineers to Poland under Operation UNIFIER to support the Polish-led sapper training program for the Security Forces of Ukraine. The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) will provide training on a range of basic and advanced engineering skills, engineering reconnaissance, the use of explosives for demolition work, and demining ...


----------



## brihard

Assuming those 40 sappers are bolted on to an existing admin and support structure (no reason to think not), what kind of throughput could that generate in terms of Ukrainian troops trained up to ‘good enough’ in explosive breaching, demolition, and demining tasks?


----------



## MilEME09

I feel like I've seen how this goes before


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579913090698604544


----------



## Kat Stevens

MilEME09 said:


> I feel like I've seen how this goes before
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579913090698604544


Looks like the Russians haven’t forgotten everything from the good old days.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

MilEME09 said:


> I feel like I've seen how this goes before
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579913090698604544


What's the rule of thumb I heard on SQ back I  the day? "Never dig in to the point that you can't GTFO"


----------



## Kirkhill

Kat Stevens said:


> Looks like the Russians haven’t forgotten everything from the good old days.



I wonder how long those Dragon's Teeth have been in storage.  Some look like they may have been harvested from the Siegfried line.

The last of their defensive stores?


----------



## brihard

Bless their hearts. May give the Mobiks some temporary misplaced confidence, but I doubt this will prove much of a barrier in real terms. It’s only useful if they can properly cover it with observation and fire, and Ukraine can make them pay for attempts to do that.


----------



## Furniture

MilEME09 said:


> I feel like I've seen how this goes before
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579913090698604544


I'm just a weather guy, but to me it makes a certain amount of sense. It denies Ukranian mechanized forces the use of those approaches without engineer support. Wasn't part of the issue with the attack in the north that the Ukrainians could just zip around in light vehicles causing chaos?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Furniture said:


> I'm just a weather guy, but to me it makes a certain amount of sense. It denies Ukranian mechanized forces the use of those approaches without engineer support. Wasn't part of the issue with the attack in the north that the Ukrainians could just zip around in light vehicles causing chaos?


The same thing the Russians are trying to deny the Ukrainians, they're denying to themselves. 

Maneuver warfare is heavily dependant on...well...maneuvering. you don't out maneuver your enemy by digging in at a rate slower than your enemy can move. 

With UAS, Precision fires, and a lot of independent Battalions rolling around and fucking up whatever they find, I seriously doubt the Ukrainians will take the bait by establishing a similar fortification on their end. The UA will just harass, sabatoge, and barrage that position until there's nothing left or the Russians retreat. 

My money is on the Mobniks losing their nerve before that trench line is anywhere near complete.


----------



## dapaterson

It's obviously four dimensional chess - if you use all your fuel on the excavators, your tanks can't retreat.


----------



## brihard

Furniture said:


> I'm just a weather guy, but to me it makes a certain amount of sense. It denies Ukranian mechanized forces the use of those approaches without engineer support. Wasn't part of the issue with the attack in the north that the Ukrainians could just zip around in light vehicles causing chaos?


It also will probably cause Russia to commit disproportionate force - and planning and mental energy - to that single fixed line. Like I said, maybe a good stiffener for a bunch of mobilized conscripts, but once Ukraine gets through, that could have a disproportionate impact on Russian morale and resolve.


----------



## Furniture

rmc_wannabe said:


> The same thing the Russians are trying to deny the Ukrainians, they're denying to themselves.
> 
> Maneuver warfare is heavily dependant on...well...maneuvering. you don't out maneuver your enemy by digging in at a rate slower than your enemy can move.


My suspicion is that the Russians don't plan to be blitzing into Ukraine anytime soon, so they'll deal with that if/when it comes up. 



rmc_wannabe said:


> With UAS, Precision fires, and a lot of independent Battalions rolling around and fucking up whatever they find, I seriously doubt the Ukrainians will take the bait by establishing a similar fortification on their end. The UA will just harass, sabatoge, and barrage that position until there's nothing left or the Russians retreat.
> 
> My money is on the Mobniks losing their nerve before that trench line is anywhere near complete.





brihard said:


> It also will probably cause Russia to commit disproportionate force - and planning and mental energy - to that single fixed line. Like I said, maybe a good stiffener for a bunch of mobilized conscripts, but once Ukraine gets through, that could have a disproportionate impact on Russian morale and resolve.


I suspect you're both correct, and it will be a temporary reprieve at best, but what else do they have left?


----------



## brihard

Furniture said:


> My suspicion is that the Russians don't plan to be blitzing into Ukraine anytime soon, so they'll deal with that if/when it comes up.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I suspect you're both correct, and it will be a temporary reprieve at best, but what else do they have left?


A lot of generals too afraid to say “no”.


----------



## KevinB

I don’t see that lasting long. 



			https://www.pica.army.mil/pmccs/SupportMunitions/DemolitionSys/MICLIC.html


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Furniture said:


> My suspicion is that the Russians don't plan to be blitzing into Ukraine anytime soon, so they'll deal with that if/when it comes up.


Blitzing is but one kind of maneuver warfare. Being able to relocate your guns to higher ground, moving your engineers to set up different obstacles or bridging, being able to command and control closer to your fighting echelons.... hard to do when you dig miles of trench line  and fight where you stand.



Furniture said:


> I suspect you're both correct, and it will be a temporary reprieve at best, but what else do they have left?


Russia is on the back foot and trying everything possible to slow the advance without having to do the unthinkable (nukes). In the absence of strategy, Air superiority, logistics, C5ISR superiority, or ... well.... professional military stuff... they're reverting to holding ground quite literally.

Either way, this will not turn out pretty for the Russians and it's only a matter of time before their resolve breaks.


----------



## daftandbarmy

I <heart> Off Route Mines 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579913595298942976


----------



## McG

UK MoD thoughts on Iranian UAVs:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580055920351924224


----------



## Kirkhill

I wonder if they come with boots or mukluks?


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/y26pbb



> Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand announced a new batch of aid to the Ukrainian armed forces, which includes ammunition, communications equipment, winter clothing, armored vehicles and artillery.
> 
> She made the corresponding announcement on Wednesday at NATO headquarters.
> 
> Some $15 million was allocated for the purchase of equipment needed in the winter – hats, gloves, boots, parkas (a type of winter jacket) – what Ukrainian soldiers will need on the front lines. They will purchase this from Canadian suppliers. An additional $15 million will be allocated for drone camera purchases, she announced.
> 
> According to the minister, Canada had already delivered more than 50 Canadian-made drone cameras to Ukraine, and they would continue to supply such cameras. Third, in the field of communications and satellite communications, they will supply Ukraine with a $2 million service of four satellites and, in partnership with Telesat, this will enable Ukraine to continue to effectively maintain ties with European and North American partners. And finally, they know, and this is what Ukraine asked for, and this is what it needs, additional artillery, in particular, 155 mm artillery. Canada will supply additional 155 mm artillery for Ukraine in its battle against Russia's illegal incursion into its sovereign territory, Anand added.
> 
> She also recalled that while in Poland on Tuesday, she announced that 40 military engineers would train Ukrainian soldiers in demining.
> 
> The minister also assured that a new batch of aid would arrive in Ukraine in the coming weeks. Winter is coming and Canada has experience with winter clothing on the battlefield and we will deliver that in the coming weeks – 500,000 sets of winter clothing and equipment will be sent to Ukraine, Anand detailed.




I guess we can afford to send the gear since we apparently don't have the troops to use it....


----------



## KevinB

They should sent the old CADPAT gear…


----------



## Kirkhill

I've heard that the Russians are sending untrained people into the field but can they really be this simple?



__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/y2e5o8

Those are surface laid anti-tank mines.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> I've heard that the Russians are sending untrained people into the field but can they really be this simple?
> 
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/y2e5o8
> 
> Those are surface laid anti-tank mines.



Dude... trained/ 'elite' soldiers also need maximum supervision. Believe me


----------



## dapaterson

That'll buff right out.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580225856504414208


----------



## dapaterson

Surface laid mines are very tricky.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580289785050337280


----------



## Kat Stevens

dapaterson said:


> That'll buff right out.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580225856504414208


Heat, hammer to fit, paint to match. Sorted.


----------



## Kat Stevens

dapaterson said:


> Surface laid mines are very tricky.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580289785050337280


I can imagine the conversation over the headset;
Driver: There are anti tank mines on the road!
CC: Idiot Ukrainians left a gap, I think we can fit through it!
Driver: Ummmm....
CC: Driver advance!
Driver: Fuuuuuuuuuuu.....
*******************intercom static*******************


----------



## MJP

KevinB said:


> They should sent the old CADPAT gear…


I suspect it will be whatever is left of the OD stock. 

I don't recall but don't think we have sent any CADPAT clothing to them.  We'll send weapons but heaven forbid someone mistake Ukrainians wearing CADPAT for Canadians is probably the logic


----------



## Good2Golf

Kat Stevens said:


> I can imagine the conversation over the headset;
> Driver: There are anti tank mines on the road!
> CC: Idiot Ukrainians left a gap, I think we can fit through it!
> Driver: Ummmm....
> CC: Driver advance!
> Driver: Fuuuuuuuuuuu.....
> *******************intercom static*******************


Or….

VDV veteran: “Think we can fit through there, Yuri?”
Yuri: “Nyet!”
VDV Veteran: “Oh ye of little faith…”
💥


----------



## KevinB

MJP said:


> I suspect it will be whatever is left of the OD stock.
> 
> I don't recall but don't think we have sent any CADPAT clothing to them.  We'll send weapons but heaven forbid someone mistake Ukrainians wearing CADPAT for Canadians is probably the logic


Uhm OD Stock?   I mean it’s only be 20 some odd years…


----------



## MJP

KevinB said:


> Uhm OD Stock?   I mean it’s only be 20 some odd years…


Pffft 20 years... We have stock that has been sitting for 50+...

TBF these are the type of holdings that are generally fine.  Clothing generally stores ok and the materiel can always be used in trg environments or when despots invade sovereign nations.

Believe me I would rid ourselves of other material before the OD clothing


----------



## KevinB

MJP said:


> Pffft 20 years... We have stock that has been sitting for 50+...
> 
> TBF these are the type of holdings that are generally fine.  Clothing generally stores ok and the materiel can always be used in trg environments or when despots invade sovereign nations.
> 
> Believe me I would rid ourselves of other material before the OD clothing


Send some TAPV’s with the clothing.


----------



## dapaterson

KevinB said:


> Send some TAPV’s with the clothing.


I thought we wanted UKR to win?


----------



## MilEME09

dapaterson said:


> I thought we wanted UKR to win?


Ukraine has specifically asked us for LAV6, but I doubt we will give them, even though GDLS could easily replace a battalion in a year


----------



## Halifax Tar

MJP said:


> Pffft 20 years... We have stock that has been sitting for 50+...
> 
> TBF these are the type of holdings that are generally fine.  Clothing generally stores ok and the materiel can always be used in trg environments or when despots invade sovereign nations.
> 
> Believe me I would rid ourselves of other material before the OD clothing



Have any 7038 OD Combat pants ?  Best hunting pants ever devised!


----------



## The Bread Guy

I guess this is ONE way to get out of it ....








						$620 for an HIV diagnosis: Russians buy their way out of military service on Telegram
					

The platform has given rise to a robust cottage industry helping Russian men avoid mobilization.




					restofworld.org


----------



## CBH99

MilEME09 said:


> Ukraine has specifically asked us for LAV6, but I doubt we will give them, even though GDLS could easily replace a battalion in a year


Why haven’t we delivered those to Ukraine yet?  Anybody know?

My understanding is the vehicles are already manufactured & coming out of stock that was intended for delivery to the CAF.  

Yet I don’t believe any of the 39 vehicles have arrived in theatre yet…


----------



## McG

CBH99 said:


> Why haven’t we delivered those to Ukraine yet?  Anybody know?
> 
> My understanding is the vehicles are already manufactured & coming out of stock that was intended for delivery to the CAF.
> 
> Yet I don’t believe any of the 39 vehicles have arrived in theatre yet…


There are open source photos of the ACSV being carried east through Europe on lowbeds.  Canada's ACSV are not already manufactured. Canada has no LAV 6 held in logistic or operational stock either; everything is issued to users. We have not materiel depth.


----------



## KevinB

McG said:


> There are open source photos of the ACSV being carried east through Europe on lowbeds.  Canada's ACSV are not already manufactured. Canada has no LAV 6 held in logistic or operational stock either; everything is issued to users. We have not materiel depth.


One would hope this conflict shows the requirements for a 1:2 reserve of OP Stock. 
  Of course knowing Canada they will just mothball 2 Bde’s and call it depth.


----------



## CBH99

McG said:


> There are open source photos of the ACSV being carried east through Europe on lowbeds.  Canada's ACSV are not already manufactured. Canada has no LAV 6 held in logistic or operational stock either; everything is issued to users. We have not materiel depth.


I was watching some ‘thing’ on the news, and Canada’s contribution to Ukraine thus far.  (This was shortly after the announcement was made.)

The reporter was either doing the piece from GLDSC or a military base (probably Pet) and when talking about the ACSV announcement, they specifically said…“these vehicles were destined for the Canadian Armed Forces, but now will be diverted to Ukraine instead.”


(I have no doubt that you are correct.  I’ll see what I can find on YouTube later and see if I can find the piece I’m referring to)


----------



## suffolkowner

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580282487041032192
practising for the battlefield


----------



## SeaKingTacco

Impressive that he got up after being run over…


----------



## Quirky

SeaKingTacco said:


> Impressive that he got up after being run over…


----------



## Kirkhill

SeaKingTacco said:


> Impressive that he got up after being run over…


Low ground pressure?  Or hard skull?

Might want to check with the RSM if he can report to the MO.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

What is the Russian equivalent for Cepacol?


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> Low ground pressure?  Or hard skull?
> 
> Might want to check with the RSM if he can report to the MO.


Looks like the front wheel went over his chest - and he ducked the second wheel that almost took off his head...


----------



## Kat Stevens

suffolkowner said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580282487041032192
> practising for the battlefield


Another volunteer for Russian SF selection.


----------



## OldSolduer

Kirkhill said:


> Low ground pressure?  Or hard skull?
> 
> Might want to check with the RSM if he can report to the MO.


In Russia BTR not run over you!! You fall under BTR !!!!!


----------



## Kirkhill

OldSolduer said:


> In Russia BTR not run over you!! You fall under BTR !!!!!




You know what?  All those guys standing in rows like that?   They look just like anti-tank mines....


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> You know what?  All those guys standing in rows like that?   They look just like anti-tank mines....


Traffic cones 

   Admittedly I was surprised they used blanks for the guns -- surprisingly UNRussian...


----------



## KevinB

More Russian competence on exhibit 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580526370429411328


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Traffic cones
> 
> Admittedly I was surprised they used blanks for the guns -- surprisingly UNRussian...


If they were in Chechnya it would have been real ammo for certain.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580599367144443904


----------



## KevinB

suffolkowner said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580282487041032192
> practising for the battlefield


Different angle of the incident 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580521503812366337
Not sure he's actually doing okay...


----------



## CBH99

SeaKingTacco said:


> Impressive that he got up after being run over…


You know your equipment is shit when even your armoured vehicles can’t run someone over & keep em’ down…

(Assuming he’s a conscript, I actually really do hope the guy is okay…)


----------



## CBH99

KevinB said:


> More Russian competence on exhibit
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580526370429411328


Goodness gracious…

So if the missiles don’t explode upon launching them, there’s a chance they missiles will _turn around_ and land relatively close to where they were launched from??


I’d be nervous about using nukes too if I were them.  Sounds more & more like it’s a self-destruct button moreso than a launch button


----------



## Mills Bomb

CBH99 said:


> You know your equipment is shit when even your armoured vehicles can’t run someone over & keep em’ down…
> 
> (Assuming he’s a conscript, I actually really do hope the guy is okay…)



Honestly, getting run over by your own BMP might be the "best case" scenario for this guy.

Could be a ticket home instead of Ukraine assuming his injuries are bad enough.

What would be really unlucky is surviving this and THEN going to die Ukraine with the same fools who ran you over.


----------



## MilEME09

CBH99 said:


> Goodness gracious…
> 
> So if the missiles don’t explode upon launching them, there’s a chance they missiles will _turn around_ and land relatively close to where they were launched from??
> 
> 
> I’d be nervous about using nukes too if I were them.  Sounds more & more like it’s a self-destruct button moreso than a launch button


They only need 1/3 to actually work


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Czech_pivo said:


> If they were in Chechnya it would have been real ammo for certain.


Chechnya!! How about Basic Training, Wainwright '74. Our instructors stuck us out in the open and fired various weapons over our heads so we could recognize what is was like being fired upon.


----------



## CBH99

Retired AF Guy said:


> Chechnya!! How about Basic Training, Wainwright '74. Our instructors stuck us out in the open and fired various weapons over our heads so we could recognize what is was like being fired upon.


People say "Don't say you miss the good old days!  They were archaic & toxic!"

Which is true in some ways.  But I do miss _parts of_ the good old days... now that would be deemed "unsafe" ... pffftttt




MilEME09 said:


> They only need 1/3 to actually work


But do they know which 1/3 will actually work, and which 2/3 may fail to launch, detonate upon launch, or apparently just turn around & come back to point of origin? 😉

(What moron thought of programming that into their calculus, anyway?)


----------



## Kat Stevens

CBH99 said:


> People say "Don't say you miss the good old days!  They were archaic & toxic!"
> 
> Which is true in some ways.  But I do miss _parts of_ the good old days... now that would be deemed "unsafe" ... pffftttt
> 
> 
> 
> But do they know which 1/3 will actually work, and which 2/3 may fail to launch, detonate upon launch, or apparently just turn around & come back to point of origin? 😉
> 
> (What moron thought of programming that into their calculus, anyway?)


Way ahead of their time. Like Elon, have it return to point of origin, touch up the paint, refuel it and send it again. The very model of Soviet efficiency!


----------



## Kirkhill

Mills Bomb said:


> Honestly, getting run over by your own BMP might be the "best case" scenario for this guy.
> 
> Could be a ticket home instead of Ukraine assuming his injuries are bad enough.
> 
> What would be really unlucky is surviving this and THEN going to die Ukraine with the same fools who ran you over.



From the other angle it looked like a bunch of civilians in attendance - as in a passing out parade.  I wonder if mama got to take her son home with her.


----------



## Kat Stevens

Kirkhill said:


> From the other angle it looked like a bunch of civilians in attendance - as in a passing out parade.  I wonder if mama got to take her son home with her.


…in a rubber bag.


----------



## Kirkhill

CBH99 said:


> People say "Don't say you miss the good old days!  They were archaic & toxic!"
> 
> Which is true in some ways.  But I do miss _parts of_ the good old days... now that would be deemed "unsafe" ... pffftttt
> 
> 
> 
> But do they know which 1/3 will actually work, and which 2/3 may fail to launch, detonate upon launch, or apparently just turn around & come back to point of origin? 😉
> 
> (What moron thought of programming that into their calculus, anyway?)



How about cheap spring loaded actuators?  Is that a thing?  Power to open, spring to close?  When power fails fins revert to hard over?


----------



## Skysix

Should make a nice mess....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580581022537637888


----------



## SeaKingTacco

Like it will explode…

If it is anything like the “ERA” on the captured Russian T-72s that turned out to be full of rubber sheets…


----------



## Kat Stevens

SeaKingTacco said:


> Like it will explode…
> 
> If it is anything like the “ERA” on the captured Russian T-72s that turned out to be full of rubber sheets…


Extruded Rubber Armour. As advertised, what’s the problem?


----------



## SeaKingTacco

Kat Stevens said:


> Extruded Rubber Armour. As advertised, what’s the problem?


You are right. I had read that wrong, all along…


----------



## RangerRay

suffolkowner said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580282487041032192
> practising for the battlefield


WTF kind of parade is that?


----------



## TacticalTea

RangerRay said:


> WTF kind of parade is that?


Seemingly, a last-ditch effort at demonstrating Russian military power and energize the troops, not unlike that other ''show'' (the one with the lady in white) we saw the other day that was put on in front of Russian troops.


----------



## RangerRay

TacticalTea said:


> Seemingly, a last-ditch effort at demonstrating Russian military power and energize the troops, not unlike that other ''show'' (the one with the lady in white) we saw the other day that was put on in front of Russian troops.


I missed that one…


----------



## CBH99

Mills Bomb said:


> Honestly, getting run over by your own BMP might be the "best case" scenario for this guy.
> 
> Could be a ticket home instead of Ukraine assuming his injuries are bad enough.
> 
> What would be really unlucky is surviving this and THEN going to die Ukraine with the same fools who ran you over.


You know it’s time to really get focused on emigrating elsewhere when your _best case scenario_ is getting run over by a BMP…


----------



## Czech_pivo

CBH99 said:


> You know it’s time to really get focused on emigrating elsewhere when your _best case scenario_ is getting run over by a BMP…


Honestly, given this and so, so many other examples I have to wonder why the Ukrainians aren’t already in Moscow…


----------



## Good2Golf

RangerRay said:


> WTF kind of parade is that?


BMQ.

Looks like he got *BTR’d at BMQ.


*more AFV required for me…BMP’d wouldn’t have been pretty.


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1580790468471771136


----------



## FormerHorseGuard

RangerRay said:


> WTF kind of parade is that?


I had to watch it 3 or 4 times. Did the guy actual crawl away from being hit and run over by the BMP?  Or was that another person crawling away?  That had to hurt.


----------



## Good2Golf

FormerHorseGuard said:


> I had to watch it 3 or 4 times. Did the guy actual crawl away from being hit and run over by the BMP?  Or was that another person crawling away?  That had to hurt.


Crawled away then collapsed.  The reverse angle video was pretty brutal. I wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t make it.


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> How about cheap spring loaded actuators?  Is that a thing?  Power to open, spring to close?  When power fails fins revert to hard over?


Pure, idle, uninformed speculation.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Anybody see this article from the BBC

Crimea bridge: Russia 'to repair blast damage by July 2023​








						Crimea bridge: Russia 'to repair blast damage by July 2023'
					

The Russian government says work on the vital blast-hit bridge must be finished by July 2023.



					www.bbc.com
				




July 2023 is a long, long way off.  I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the planning sessions on how they will maintain supplies into that area over the next 10 months.


----------



## TacticalTea

Czech_pivo said:


> Anybody see this article from the BBC
> 
> Crimea bridge: Russia 'to repair blast damage by July 2023​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Crimea bridge: Russia 'to repair blast damage by July 2023'
> 
> 
> The Russian government says work on the vital blast-hit bridge must be finished by July 2023.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> July 2023 is a long, long way off.  I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the planning sessions on how they will maintain supplies into that area over the next 10 months.


And that's if a second strike doesn't occur.

Which, seeing as Russia so proudly demonstrated it could still use the bridge, I find quite likely.


----------



## RangerRay

Good2Golf said:


> BMQ.
> 
> Looks like he got *BTR’d at BMQ.
> 
> 
> *more AFV required for me…BMP’d wouldn’t have been pretty.


Funny. When I graduated BMQ, AFV’s and ML’s didn’t drive around us on the parade square firing in all directions…never mind running over squaddies.


----------



## The Bread Guy

TacticalTea said:


> And that's if a second strike doesn't occur.
> 
> Which, seeing as Russia so proudly demonstrated it could still use the bridge, I find quite likely.


----------



## SeaKingTacco

RangerRay said:


> Funny. When I graduated BMQ, AFV’s and ML’s didn’t drive around us on the parade square firing in all directions…never mind running over squaddies.


Well, you did not “train to excite”, did you?


----------



## RangerRay

SeaKingTacco said:


> Well, you did not “train to excite”, did you?


I guess we weren’t manly men like those Ruskies!


----------



## TacticalTea

RangerRay said:


> I guess we weren’t manly men like those Ruskies!


I can't help but laugh nowadays every time I think of the right wing's talking points on the weak western military vs manly Russian military dichotomy...


----------



## brihard

TacticalTea said:


> I can't help but laugh nowadays every time I think of the right wing's talking points on the weak western military vs manly Russian military dichotomy...


They’re tough in the way that a horribly drunk Neanderthal might be. Not necessarily someone to fistfight, but also not the most capable opponent in anything beyond a fists-and-feet bar brawl.


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukrainian Gunners - 93rd Brigade


----------



## Kirkhill

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/canadian-ukraine-military-training-1.6614077
		


Every now and then I see a Ukrainian soldier I am convinced was trained by Canadians.  Once in a while you see someone with a white plastic spoon in their top left pocket.


----------



## MJP

Kirkhill said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/canadian-ukraine-military-training-1.6614077
> 
> 
> 
> Every now and then I see a Ukrainian soldier I am convinced was trained by Canadians.  Once in a while you see someone with a white plastic spoon in their top left pocket.


From plate carriers (Melmac plates that is that is), to KFS carriers and IMP spoons nobody prepares for meals like CAF soldiers and we look the part (myself included  )


----------



## RangerRay

I thought only the SAS has racing spoons?  🤔


----------



## GK .Dundas

brihard said:


> They’re tough in the way that a horribly drunk Neanderthal might be. Not necessarily someone to fistfight, but also not the most capable opponent in anything beyond a fists-and-feet bar brawl.


I can remember being told very seriously when I was something like 17 or so that I would have all of a 20 minute lifespan. Should the balloon go up and the mighty sov war machine start it's West ward march.
It's  been very disappointing.. .. in a strange way.
 I was going to say that these guys couldn't organize a pissup in a distillery ...yeah they could actually do that.


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

TacticalTea said:


> I can't help but laugh nowadays every time I think of the right wing's talking points on the weak western military vs manly Russian military dichotomy...


Can't let this go.  This is the kind of moronic post that makes discussion on almost any topic unworkable nowadays.

Is there anybody here, who leans to the left side of the political spectrum, who predicted the Russian military would be the shitshow it has showed itself to be??
I'll wait.......


----------



## TacticalTea

A reminder: 

*Staff Conduct*

To use old (but true) military quips, Staff are expected to lead by example and be above reproach. That means that all members of the Army.ca Staff need to take extra care in their actions here.

*Personal Attacks*

Army.ca has a *zero tolerance policy for personal attacks*, whether against another Army.ca member or a public figure. Posts that contain a personal attack should be summarily deleted, and the user should normally receive a warning. Personal attacks detract from the professionalism of the site and can sometimes cause serious problems for Army.ca as a whole.









						Official - Army.ca Staff Guidelines
					

For Staff and users who are interested in what a moderator's "rules" are, I have listed the general guidelines below.  General  First and foremost, as Staff you are essential in keeping things running smoothly here. I simply don't have the time to keep up with everything, let alone watch for...




					army.ca
				




@Mike Bobbitt


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Calling your post moronic is not calling you a moron.
I'm sure we all have posts we cringe at now.   I know I do....

Maybe try not to be so sensitive if you wish to insult about half the folks in North America.  You brought political views into a thread that wasn't about political views.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581010349540528129


----------



## RangerRay

Colin Parkinson said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581010349540528129


I don’t care who you are, that’s cool!

(Other than the totally exposed gunner)


----------



## TacticalTea

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> Calling your post moronic is not calling you a moron.
> I'm sure we all have posts we cringe at now.   I know I do....
> 
> Maybe try not to be so sensitive if you wish to insult about half the folks in North America.  You brought political views into a thread that wasn't about political views.


That policy reminder devoid of personal commentary was an opportunity for you to move on.

Since you refuse to do so, let me break it down for you.

1. A comment on a singular talking point on the right wing of the spectrum is not in any way a repudiation of that entire half of the spectrum, nor does it have anything to do with the Left.



Bruce Monkhouse said:


> This is the kind of moronic post that makes discussion on almost any topic unworkable nowadays.





Bruce Monkhouse said:


> Maybe try not to be so sensitive


Those two phrases amount to Putin-like irony.

2. You cannot seriously bemoan discursive toxicity while calling your interlocutors morons. And no, saying you targeted the comment is not an excuse; ''moronic'' is a direct attack on the author's intelligence. There are other ways to express strongly felt disagreement.

3. There is nothing ''sensitive'' about reminding you of your job. On the other hand, losing your cool because someone broadly targeted your political tribe is comically sensitive.

So again, I ask you to be mindful of your role as a staff member and to respect all members and fellow service members (active or retired) on this website.

I will not comment further on the matter.


----------



## Good2Golf

TacticalTea said:


> That policy reminder devoid of personal commentary was an opportunity for you to move on.
> 
> Since you refuse to do so, let me break it down for you.
> 
> 1. A comment on a singular talking point on the right wing of the spectrum is not in any way a repudiation of that entire half of the spectrum, nor does it have anything to do with the Left.
> 
> 
> 
> Those two phrases amount to Putin-like irony.
> 
> 2. You cannot seriously bemoan discursive toxicity while calling your interlocutors morons. And no, saying you targeted the comment is not an excuse; ''moronic'' is a direct attack on the author's intelligence. There are other ways to express strongly felt disagreement.
> 
> 3. There is nothing ''sensitive'' about reminding you of your job. On the other hand, losing your cool because someone broadly targeted your political tribe is comically sensitive.
> 
> So again, I ask you to be mindful of your role as a staff member and to respect all members and fellow service members (active or retired) on this website.
> 
> I will not comment further on the matter.


If you have an issue where you feel your only option is to vent publicly to address an issue you perceive as un-mod like behaviour, then please go back and re-read the Site Guidelines that you picked DS-related material only.  You may find this section particularly helpful.



Mike Bobbitt said:


> *Cooperation with Directing Staff (Moderators)*
> In order to keep things running smoothly, the Directing Staff take an active role in day to day operations. We've found that some users are surprised by this "hands on" approach, especially those who are used to sites where moderators are not heavily involved. It is expected that everyone using this site will respect the authority given to the Staff. They volunteer their time and have been selected based on a proven track record at this site. They are charged with the policing of this site. Diplomatic criticism and debate of their role is accepted and encouraged. However, any hostile challenges to their authority will not be tolerated. If you feel you have been treated inappropriately, please send myself, or Scott a PM including details on the incident.



Mr. Bobbitt and Scott would be pleased to address your concerns.


----------



## Mike Bobbitt

The use of "moronic" was unnecessary and unhelpful. The general message of avoiding inflammatory partisan comments is valid, but I agree the delivery could be better.

Thanks for the feedback and the reminder on the rules.


----------



## RangerRay

Not sure if this is the right thread for this since it speaks to foreign and domestic policy in general as well as the energy situation due to the invasion of Ukrainian specifically.   It appears the Deputy PM is making the right sounds in Washington, but the actions of the government so far hasn’t matched. Will the government start acting smarter, is Freeland freelancing or is she wish-casting?









						Matt Gurney: Freeland lays out the terms upon which her government should be judged
					

The deputy PM's speech proposed a thoughtful, sober proposal for adapting to the new global reality ... and the Liberals aren't doing any of it.




					theline.substack.com


----------



## Kirkhill

General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi. General Kovalchuk. Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskiy









						A tale of three generals — how the Ukrainian military turned the tide
					

Over the past three months the wider world has watched Ukrainian army offensives with amazement. While impressive, their successes are not miracles and can be explained by superb leadership, excellent operational planning and its decentralised chain of command.




					engelsbergideas.com


----------



## Good2Golf

RangerRay said:


> Not sure if this is the right thread for this since it speaks to foreign and domestic policy in general as well as the energy situation due to the invasion of Ukrainian specifically.   It appears the Deputy PM is making the right sounds in Washington, but the actions of the government so far hasn’t matched. Will the government start acting smarter, is Freeland freelancing or is she wish-casting?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Matt Gurney: Freeland lays out the terms upon which her government should be judged
> 
> 
> The deputy PM's speech proposed a thoughtful, sober proposal for adapting to the new global reality ... and the Liberals aren't doing any of it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> theline.substack.com


Current Government in no way will support any of what she’s saying…I’m not even sure why she’s say it…save it for Montréal next summer, at the “Just for Laughs!” comedy festival.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Ukraine loses two S-300's to a Lancet loitering munition, which local AD attempts to shoot down. This has to hurt. Layered AD is is an absolute must and gun system should have been backing up the Manpad.


----------



## FJAG

Colin Parkinson said:


> Ukraine loses two S-300's to a Lancet loitering munition, which local AD attempts to shoot down. This has to hurt. Layered AD is is an absolute must and gun system should have been backing up the Manpad.


Who would park two such valuable systems cheek to jowl so that one strike would get both?

That's before we even get to cover and concealment.

😥


----------



## MilEME09

So this is what? Stage 20 trench?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581312902828474370


----------



## CBH99

FJAG said:


> Who would park two such valuable systems cheek to jowl so that one strike would get both?
> 
> That's before we even get to cover and concealment.
> 
> 😥


Lots of lessons learned in this conflict, on both sides.  

This was a good, recent example of a lesson reminded.  We all know not to park valuable things side-by-side, but with such a visual, now we REALLY KNOW not to do so…


----------



## The Bread Guy

Whazzup in Russia, in the core and around the edges ....








						A silent mutiny is building up among soldiers' mothers and wives
					

"Return home safely," a woman sings in a farewell performance to hundreds of Russian reservists lined up for war. But the singer and her music band hardly reassures the growing number of relatives who say their men are badly equipped, ill-treated and unprepared for battle.




					thebarentsobserver.com
				











						Mobilization and the economy: “Russia faces a quiet, incessant and slow degradation”
					

Russian men are being mobilized for the war with Ukraine, and those who do not want this are fleeing the country. The Barents Observer tried to understand how these processes will affect the Russian economy. According to experts, the consequences will be catastrophic.




					thebarentsobserver.com
				











						Mobilized Russian reservists get combat training along border to NATO
					

Ahead of deployment in Ukraine, mobilized men are sent to training facilities in Pechenga, the Russian border region to Norway. They are told that they are on a "holy mission" against America and its allies.




					thebarentsobserver.com
				











						Russia celebrates "liberation" of annexed Finnish land
					

As Moscow prepared annexation of Ukrainian regions, top Russian officials took part in a ceremony on the Soviet "liberation" of the former Finnish town of Alakurtti in 1944.




					thebarentsobserver.com


----------



## CBH99

The Bread Guy said:


> Whazzup in Russia, in the core and around the edges ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A silent mutiny is building up among soldiers' mothers and wives
> 
> 
> "Return home safely," a woman sings in a farewell performance to hundreds of Russian reservists lined up for war. But the singer and her music band hardly reassures the growing number of relatives who say their men are badly equipped, ill-treated and unprepared for battle.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> thebarentsobserver.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Mobilization and the economy: “Russia faces a quiet, incessant and slow degradation”
> 
> 
> Russian men are being mobilized for the war with Ukraine, and those who do not want this are fleeing the country. The Barents Observer tried to understand how these processes will affect the Russian economy. According to experts, the consequences will be catastrophic.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> thebarentsobserver.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Mobilized Russian reservists get combat training along border to NATO
> 
> 
> Ahead of deployment in Ukraine, mobilized men are sent to training facilities in Pechenga, the Russian border region to Norway. They are told that they are on a "holy mission" against America and its allies.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> thebarentsobserver.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia celebrates "liberation" of annexed Finnish land
> 
> 
> As Moscow prepared annexation of Ukrainian regions, top Russian officials took part in a ceremony on the Soviet "liberation" of the former Finnish town of Alakurtti in 1944.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> thebarentsobserver.com


It’s amazing how a guy like Putin caught his country by the belt while it was collapsing all around him at the end of the Cold War.  By making alliances with these people and those people, exerting leverage where possible, being intelligent & charismatic… he went from a low/mid-level KGB guy to President of Russia, and one of the wealthiest people in the world.  

Only to have his tenure of incredible intelligence, skilled negotiations, and savvy politics end with Russia essentially becoming a train racing towards with a cliff with a conductor who can’t see what’s ahead.  


I have no idea what Russia will look like when this is all over.  But some massive cultural changes are coming down the pipe I imagine, and sooner vs later…


----------



## Kirkhill

And another contented Forward Observation Officer in the Russian Army.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/y5l3vi


----------



## FJAG

"12 [forward observer] this is 1 [battery CP]. Reference your location, Shot Over."


----------



## Kirkhill

FJAG said:


> "12 [forward observer] this is 1 [battery CP]. Reference your location, Shot Over."


Like this?


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/y5gskj


----------



## tomydoom

Kirkhill said:


> Like this?
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/y5gskj


I recall something to the effect of, “the secondary role of the artillery is to drop rounds short, to spur the infantry on to victory”


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Solider language.....


----------



## Jarnhamar

NATO should send a bunch of suicide drones to Iran's leadership.


----------



## CBH99

At this point, the Ukrainians should continue with their mass messaging that surrendering is the better option.  

Heck, it could be their only option…continue to surround their positions and just wait them out - assuming there isn’t much for food or water being supplied.

Treat them well.  Get them washed up, fed, some clean clothes, and allow them to call home for only a minute or so but long enough to let their families know they are alive & okay.

When they get home, they’ll spread word of  their good treatment at the hands of the Ukrainians & also possibly start to learn the horrors of what the Ukrainians endured at the hands of their fellow Russians.  

Not only is it decent, but it unites people in a way that nothing else can.  




I genuinely do feel bad for these guys who had no desire to be in the military, had no personal interest or bad feelings towards Ukraine, being drafted & sent without training or equipment to a region they don’t want to be in, and having to call home for any news since their ‘leadership’ is non-existent…

Fighting a professional military who has invaded your lands, and is subjecting your people to sadistic horrors is one thing.  

Fighting a bunch of ill-prepared, clueless draftee’s who just get dropped off because Putin said so??


----------



## Skysix

1st hand accout from a mobilised survivor - the will to live is vital


----------



## RangerRay

CBH99 said:


> At this point, the Ukrainians should continue with their mass messaging that surrendering is the better option.
> 
> Heck, it could be their only option…continue to surround their positions and just wait them out - assuming there isn’t much for food or water being supplied.
> 
> Treat them well.  Get them washed up, fed, some clean clothes, and allow them to call home for only a minute or so but long enough to let their families know they are alive & okay.
> 
> When they get home, they’ll spread word of  their good treatment at the hands of the Ukrainians & also possibly start to learn the horrors of what the Ukrainians endured at the hands of their fellow Russians.
> 
> Not only is it decent, but it unites people in a way that nothing else can.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I genuinely do feel bad for these guys who had no desire to be in the military, had no personal interest or bad feelings towards Ukraine, being drafted & sent without training or equipment to a region they don’t want to be in, and having to call home for any news since their ‘leadership’ is non-existent…
> 
> Fighting a professional military who has invaded your lands, and is subjecting your people to sadistic horrors is one thing.
> 
> Fighting a bunch of ill-prepared, clueless draftee’s who just get dropped off because Putin said so??


Some of the things I have read is that this may be why we are seeing atrocities being committed on Ukrainian civilians. Poorly trained, scared and demoralized troops with poor leadership are taking out their frustrations on locals who aren’t welcoming their liberators.  No doubt a steady diet of propaganda from home telling you Ukrainians are sub-human not worthy of dignity doesn’t help either.

I will save my sympathy for those who maintain their honour despite these pressures. And who surrender at the first opportunity to do so.


----------



## Czech_pivo

RangerRay said:


> Some of the things I have read is that this may be why we are seeing atrocities being committed on Ukrainian civilians. Poorly trained, scared and demoralized troops with poor leadership are taking out their frustrations on locals who aren’t welcoming their liberators.  No doubt a steady diet of propaganda from home telling you Ukrainians are sub-human not worthy of dignity doesn’t help either.
> 
> I will save my sympathy for those who maintain their honour despite these pressures. And who surrender at the first opportunity to do so.


The real issues for these new mobiaks will start to rear their heads for them in the next 2 months once the temperature drops and stays below -5c day and night.  They won't have anywhere near enough proper winter gear or heating supplies.  It might just be a massacre.  I don't see how VVP and his cronies can't see this staring them in the face.


----------



## NavyShooter

On the other hand....sending the 'mobiaks' to the front is pulling the young men out of their home towns...the most likely group to be dangerous in terms of internal problems and turmoil are now hundreds or thousands of miles from home.  So...is VVP doing this deliberately in order to reduce the potential for dissident behaviour at home, whilst slightly bolstering his front lines?


----------



## KevinB

NavyShooter said:


> On the other hand....sending the 'mobiaks' to the front is pulling the young men out of their home towns...the most likely group to be dangerous in terms of internal problems and turmoil are now hundreds or thousands of miles from home.  So...is VVP doing this deliberately in order to reduce the potential for dissident behaviour at home, whilst slightly bolstering his front lines?


Or does he decrease that stability - as those people have families, and memories...


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> Or does he decrease that stability - as those people have families, and memories...



Some people don't seem to be happy with the Lada 

‘My Son Has Died’ – Russia’s New Recruits Are Coming Home in Coffins​ 
Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a nationwide mobilization of about 300,000 reservists, and it was faced with mixed reactions. Many fled to European borders, while others were firm in their stance to fight for their Russo-motherland. Others took the streets, but as you can expect from Russia, they were collected by local authorities and put in jail.

And after this announcement, it was reported that these new recruits were now being deployed to the frontlines with just days of training, becoming “cannon fodder” for Ukrainian attacks. According to reports, Putin announced last Friday that 16,000 new recruits have just been deployed for combat. Looking at the timeline of the mobilization announcement, it seems like these men were either military reserves who already had training before or younger men who had limited to no experience in combat training. The Times also reported that most recruits had less than 10 days of training. One of the conscripts admitted he only held a gun once.

Another anonymous source told The Times that draft recruits in Yekaterinburg (central Russia) were seen marching on the streets in their casual attire, with “no machine guns, nothing, no clothes, no shoes.” The Observer added that half of those lined up looked too old, too frail to even be in battle.










						'My Son Has Died' - Russia's New Recruits Are Coming Home in Coffins
					

Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a nationwide mobilization of about 300,000 reservists, and it was faced with mixed reactions.




					sofrep.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Wagner take on fighting Ukrainians and the quality of Wagner's allies.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581764695119171584


----------



## MilEME09

NavyShooter said:


> On the other hand....sending the 'mobiaks' to the front is pulling the young men out of their home towns...the most likely group to be dangerous in terms of internal problems and turmoil are now hundreds or thousands of miles from home.  So...is VVP doing this deliberately in order to reduce the potential for dissident behaviour at home, whilst slightly bolstering his front lines?


From what I have read, and this is unconfirmed at this time but the Russians are setting up three lines of defense, first line is the convict units, second line is the mobiaks, third regular Russian army units. Guess who stops who from retreat?


----------



## Kirkhill

Backing down on both mobilization and air strikes...  Not many tools left in the bag.









						Putin says Ukraine mobilisation should be finished in two weeks
					

Russia's president promised an end to a divisive mobilization, part of a response to battlefield defeats, that has seen hundreds of thousands of men summoned to fight in Ukraine and huge numbers flee the country.




					www.reuters.com
				












						Putin Says No Need For Further Massive Air Strikes On Ukraine, Foresees End To Mobilization
					

Nearly eight months into his war against Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be striking a softer tone, saying he sees no need for continued massive air strikes and that a mobilization of troops to support his military operation will end in two weeks.




					www.rferl.org
				












						Putin says Russia’s unpopular mobilization of reservists to end in 2 weeks
					

President tells reporters after attending a summit in Kazakhstan that 222,000 reservists have been mobilized; tens of thousands have fled Russia to evade draft




					www.timesofisrael.com


----------



## QV

The Neocons and the Woke Left Are Joining Hands and Leading to Woke War III
					

By smearing Elon Musk, the Twitter Mob maintains that escalation in Ukraine is the only acceptable view, even if it risks nuclear war.




					www.newsweek.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Kirkhill said:


> Backing down on both mobilization and air strikes...  Not many tools left in the bag.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Putin says Ukraine mobilisation should be finished in two weeks
> 
> 
> Russia's president promised an end to a divisive mobilization, part of a response to battlefield defeats, that has seen hundreds of thousands of men summoned to fight in Ukraine and huge numbers flee the country.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Putin Says No Need For Further Massive Air Strikes On Ukraine, Foresees End To Mobilization
> 
> 
> Nearly eight months into his war against Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be striking a softer tone, saying he sees no need for continued massive air strikes and that a mobilization of troops to support his military operation will end in two weeks.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.rferl.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Putin says Russia’s unpopular mobilization of reservists to end in 2 weeks
> 
> 
> President tells reporters after attending a summit in Kazakhstan that 222,000 reservists have been mobilized; tens of thousands have fled Russia to evade draft
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.timesofisrael.com


Apparently the annual draft of 120,000 is coming up and that is why they are halting general mobilization. They literally don't have anywhere or anyone to train them.


----------



## Maxman1

Russian fighter jet crashes into apartments in southern city near Ukraine - National | Globalnews.ca


----------



## ueo

Colin Parkinson said:


> Apparently the annual draft of 120,000 is coming up and that is why they are halting general mobilization. They literally don't have anywhere or anyone to train them.


Sounds like Canada!


----------



## Navy_Pete

Maxman1 said:


> Russian fighter jet crashes into apartments in southern city near Ukraine - National | Globalnews.ca


I can't believe those pilots didn't get lynched on landing. Something like 12k kg of jet fuel plus munitions, they pulled the pin and let it hit a building vice aiming for any of the nearby empty fields. Clearly brave patriots.


----------



## Kirkhill

I love a good warstory...


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/y6vnt0


----------



## RangerRay

QV said:


> The Neocons and the Woke Left Are Joining Hands and Leading to Woke War III
> 
> 
> By smearing Elon Musk, the Twitter Mob maintains that escalation in Ukraine is the only acceptable view, even if it risks nuclear war.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.newsweek.com


This article is a clear example of the political spectrum being a horseshoe instead of a straight line. You’re seeing the far left Tankies who hate everything American and western and the far right who believe the crap about “Holy” Russia and nefarious bio-labs agreeing that Ukraine should just bend over for Putin so he would stop bombing and raping them. They are no different than those that thought Hitler would be satisfied if he were given the Sudetenland, and Czechoslovakia just get over it. The Tankies and the Tucker Carlson types can both go fuck themselves. 

I am with President Zelinskyy and the vast majority of Ukrainians. No peace until Putin withdraws his motley crew of rapists and murderers back to Russia.


----------



## Halifax Tar

RangerRay said:


> I am with President Zelinskyy and the vast majority of Ukrainians. No peace until Putin withdraws his motley crew of rapists and murderers back to Russia.



Cool.  But I'm not willing to burn the whole world for this.


----------



## CBH99

Kirkhill said:


> Backing down on both mobilization and air strikes...  Not many tools left in the bag.


Exactly.  

From a conventional perspective, this war couldn’t have gone much better for Europe as a whole.  Not only did Ukraine decisively win, but they’ve eliminated any large conventional threat coming from Russia for at least a decade or so.    

From an unconventional perspective, not many tools left in the bag can be a very bad thing, if one side is _NOT_ willing to lose…


----------



## McG

Halifax Tar said:


> Cool.  But I'm not willing to burn the whole world for this.


That is the argument taken by the people who were ready to give Czechoslovakia to Hitler. You don’t save the world from fire by giving the pyromaniac what he wants. He will be back with the flamethrower after every use that resulted in him achieving his wants.


----------



## Halifax Tar

McG said:


> That is the argument taken by the people who were ready to give Czechoslovakia to Hitler. You don’t save the world from fire by giving the pyromaniac what he wants. He will be back with the flamethrower after every use that resulted in him achieving his wants.



So we drive Putin closer to launching nukes because in 1939 we let Hitler have the sudetenland ?

You'll forgive me if Im not willing to gamble with millions of lives around the world. 

The UKR has all but won this.  Now it's time to find a way off this crazy train before it's get out of control.


----------



## Furniture

Halifax Tar said:


> So we drive Putin closer to launching nukes because in 1939 we let Hitler have the sudetenland ?
> 
> You'll forgive me if Im not willing to gamble with millions of lives around the world.
> 
> The UKR has all but won this.  Now it's time to find a way off this crazy train before it's get out of control.


The clear solution has been the one stated from the beginning, Russians troops out of Ukraine's internationally recognized territory. Anything less than that is letting the Russians win and encouraging the next madman with nukes to push ever harder.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Halifax Tar said:


> Cool.  But I'm not willing to burn the whole world for this.


I admit a bit over the top but it still holds merit - 


First they came for the socialists Ukrainians, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist Ukrainian.

Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a trade unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.

—Martin Niemöller


----------



## Halifax Tar

Furniture said:


> The clear solution has been the one stated from the beginning, Russians troops out of Ukraine's internationally recognized territory. Anything less than that is letting the Russians win and encouraging the next madman with nukes to push ever harder.



To be clear, there is a time to damn the torpedos and go all in.

This just isn't it to me.


----------



## McG

Halifax Tar said:


> You'll forgive me if Im not willing to gamble with millions of lives around the world.


To choose appeasement is to gamble with millions of lives around the world, because it teaches war mongers that they can get what they want through escalating violence and war.

The west and NATO are far from all in, and backing-off cannot be an option right now.


----------



## Halifax Tar

McG said:


> To choose appeasement is to gamble with millions of lives around the world, because it teaches war mongers that they can get what they want through escalating violence and war.
> 
> The west and NATO are far from all in, and backing-off cannot be an option right now.



NATO doesn't matter if Putin goes WMD on the Ukraine.  

Also, please stop with appeasement and 1939 crap.  I'm not a Russian supporter.  I simply think my daughter deserves more than 9 years on this planet and some goofball politicians playing losey goosey with that opportunity makes me a tad bit uneasy.  

We should be searching for ways out of this now.  If that means comprises, so be it.  I'd rather a compromised peace than a principaled nuclear war.


----------



## McG

Putin has started a war for Lebensraum.  He has used phony referendums to stage Anschluss in eastern Ukraine.  He has launched vengeance weapons against the populations of the country he is targeting. He is ethnically cleansing the lands he has occupied.  And he got his "peace for our time" reprieve after 2014.  You may wish for now to be dissimilar from 1939, but burying our heads in the sand will not save lives.


----------



## Furniture

Halifax Tar said:


> NATO doesn't matter if Putin goes WMD on the Ukraine.
> 
> Also, please stop with appeasement and 1939 crap.  I'm not a Russian supporter.  I simply think my daughter deserves more than 9 years on this planet and some goofball politicians playing losey goosey with that opportunity makes me a tad bit uneasy.
> 
> We should be searching for ways out of this now.  If that means comprises, so be it.  I'd rather a compromised peace than a principaled nuclear war.


So long as it's Ukranian kids living with the compromises though...

I'm not unsympathetic to what you're saying, I just don't think it's the right approach.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Furniture said:


> So long as it's Ukranian kids living with the compromises though...
> 
> I'm not unsympathetic to what you're saying, I just don't think it's the right approach.



Where does it stop ?  

What is the right approach ?


----------



## Czech_pivo

Halifax Tar said:


> NATO doesn't matter if Putin goes WMD on the Ukraine.
> 
> Also, please stop with appeasement and 1939 crap.  I'm not a Russian supporter.  I simply think my daughter deserves more than 9 years on this planet and some goofball politicians playing losey goosey with that opportunity makes me a tad bit uneasy.
> 
> We should be searching for ways out of this now.  If that means comprises, so be it.  I'd rather a compromised peace than a principaled nuclear war.


There is no clearly defined, readily available, off the shelf solution to this issue. It's large, complex and multi-dimensional. But one thing that is for certain, whatever the outcome of this war is, it will have long lasting effects across most of the world.

1) If the West 'folds' on Ukraine and VVP gets his 3 new provinces (Donbass, Luhansk  and Crimea), it will clearly emboldened other mini versions of VVP to seek out their own versions of this against their smaller neighbours -one outcome, (of many) of this, will be millions of new potential refugees/migrants further straining the democracies in the EU and to a hugely smaller scale Canada/US as other smaller countries suffer the same fact as Ukraine.

2) If the West maintains its current testicular fortitude against VVP and Russia 'is defeated' and the Donbass, Luhansk and Crimea returns completely to Ukrainian sovereignty and a voluntary 'transfer' of populations occur for those who wish to leave or come back to Ukraine happens. One outcome is that Taiwan can breathe a huge sigh of relief that they will continue to exist for the next 15+yrs until memories start to fade or something drastic occurs to alter its stability. 
2A) Does Ukraine enter the EU - if yes, then a massive new 'PHARE' programme will be needed, on a much larger scale that I witnessed first hand in the Czech Republic in the mid 90s.  It will be longer and have to be much more in-depth and pervasive​​2B) Does Ukraine enter the EU and be allowed to proceed down the path to NATO membership - huge unknowns here. Depends on the government composition in the Russia after #2 happens. More than likely China will be painted more into a corner and view its position as increasingly isolated on the world stage. Potential for a new 21st century version of the Cold War to occur. Lots and lot's of unknown's here.​​2C) Does Ukraine become more of a Switzerland - interwoven trade agreements with the EU and the CIS, benefiting from both worlds, with one foot firmly planted in the West and the other firmly planted in the East. Its military independent, separate but able to buy from whomever and train with whomever but on its own.​​3) Does Russia 'conquer' Ukraine in the end - Regime change occurs, massive outflow of those 'Western' in body and mind to the EU and Canada/US. Ukraine becomes the new 'Belarus' and corners the market growing sunflowers and grain and slips pitifully back into the smothering grasp of Mother Russia. A new iron curtain descends from the Baltic to the Black Sea and Russians are again seen as the Evil Empire.  Taiwan goes on a massive arms shopping spree and the US declares that Taiwan falls within its scope of interest.


----------



## Furniture

Halifax Tar said:


> Where does it stop ?
> 
> What is the right approach ?


Let Ukraine decide if/when they are willing to compromise, rather than force them to, so we can feel "safe" for a few more years. At least until the next genocidal, nuclear armed country, decides they want a chunk of someone else's lands, and/or to eradicate someone else's culture. 

I'm confident that Ukraine has been warned that expansion into Russia is not going to be supported, so the Russian mainland is not under risk of invasion. I'm also fairly confident that the button pushers in Russia are no more interested in dying in a nuclear war than we are.


----------



## TacticalTea

McG said:


> That is the argument taken by the people who were ready to give Czechoslovakia to Hitler. You don’t save the world from fire by giving the pyromaniac what he wants. He will be back with the flamethrower after every use that resulted in him achieving his wants.


@Halifax Tar

_The greater risk lies in appeasement_. As eloquently explained by others above.
President Reagan does it better than anyone else:

_"There is a price we will not pay. There is a point beyond which they must not advance."_






The - separate - point I present then is this one:

What would Putin gain from nukes? He has no rationale for strategic weapons, and no use for tactical weapons. The Ukrainians - unlike the Russians - aren't forming massive concentrations of troops to be taken out by a single weapon. Even if he targets their cities, he faces the immediate conventional annihilation of his forces by the US. What, then, has he gained?


----------



## Kirkhill

1956 - Hungarian Revolution - My first year
1957 - Sputnik - 1
1961 - Berlin Wall - 5
1962 - Cuban Missile Crisis - 6
1963 - Kennedy Assassination - 7
1968 - Prague Spring - 12
1980 - Solidarnosc - 24
1989 - Berlin Wall - 33

I am decidedly ordinary.  Those milestones show up in the lives of billions.  And each one of them, along with others, raised the prospect of dire things happening.   They didn't.

Vlad has been waving his nuclear sword since 1999 threatening to unleash direness.  He hasn't.


----------



## KevinB

TacticalTea said:


> The point I present then is this one:
> 
> What would Putin gain from nukes? He has no rationale for strategic weapons, and no use for tactical weapons. The Ukrainians - unlike the Russians - aren't forming massive concentrations of troops to be taken out by a single weapon. Even if he targets their cities, he faces the immediate conventional annihilation of his forces by the US. What, then, has he gained?


Which is why I doubt he will try to roll the dice that way.   Everyone in Putins inner circle got rich as did their families - none of them want that to go away either.  

But I believe the ONLY reason Putin hasn’t rolled the dice if because the West has been very clear as to the results.


----------



## Navy_Pete

KevinB said:


> Which is why I doubt he will try to roll the dice that way.   Everyone in Putins inner circle got rich as did their families - none of them want that to go away either.
> 
> But I believe the ONLY reason Putin hasn’t rolled the dice if because the West has been very clear as to the results.


Russia in general, their allies, as well as the 'annexed territories' are all within the fallout zone though (as is Europe, and depending on the scale the rest of the planet). Not sure if he cares, but I'm sure there are a lot of Russians that don't want the STALKER video games to become their real life.

Kind of hope those orders would be disobeyed even if given, but with some of the insane propaganda internally hard to say.


----------



## McG

Navy_Pete said:


> Russia in general, their allies, as well as the 'annexed territories' are all within the fallout zone though (as is Europe, and depending on the scale the rest of the planet). Not sure if he cares, but I'm sure there are a lot of Russians that don't want the STALKER video games to become their real life.


In fact, there could be more fallout for Russia than for Europe.


----------



## Mills Bomb

Looking at some of the replies in this thread, apparently nuclear sabre rattling does work.

Some of these replies are the exact type of thinking Putin hoped for. 

Maybe it's not worth it, but for all the criticism of the nuclear sabre rattling, we're also seeing people getting nervous as it's clearly working on at least a few people. 

If we just let countries with nukes invade countries that don't have them, that's going to lead to a lot of problems.


----------



## Navy_Pete

That's crazy; they also should have real life data from Chernobyl, but I don't think that really compares at all for spread with a bomb.

Same genuiuses got their soldiers to dig trenches in heavily contaminated soil though, so I don't think informed choices is high on their list.


----------



## Remius

More Russian « Administrative Action » 









						Head of Russia’s mobilization against Ukraine latest to die under ‘suspicious’ circumstances
					

Lt. Col. Roman Malyk was found dead on October 14 near a fence at his home in the Primorsky region of Russia




					nationalpost.com


----------



## suffolkowner

Personally I think there is a good chance Russia retains Crimea and the Donbass. I know many Ukrainians might not be happy with that but a return more or less to the pre Feb 24 boundaries can probably be sold as a win of sorts to both sides. The Russian could of course fold up pretty quickly as well with a couple more battlefield defeats. Right now neither side appears very ready or willing to negotiate, they need to exhaust their options for a bit longer.

As far as the nukes are concerned I cant see how this doesnt spur at the very least some countries looking into nuclear arnament as the only true guarantee of independence


----------



## Good2Golf

Halifax Tar said:


> Where does it stop ?
> 
> What is the right approach ?


How much of Ukraine would you let Putin have, then?


----------



## Halifax Tar

Good2Golf said:


> How much of Ukraine would you let Putin have, then?



How about you answer my questions first ?

I tell ya, I don't have much faith in our political class but I sure hope they aren't as nuclear hawkish as many in this thread seem to be. 

Cooler heads need to prevail in this situation.


----------



## Furniture

Halifax Tar said:


> How about you answer my questions first ?
> 
> I tell ya, I don't have much faith in our political class but I sure hope they aren't as nuclear hawkish as many in this thread seem to be.
> 
> Cooler heads need to prevail in this situation.


What you're advocating for will likely make the world a less safe place.

If nuclear armed powers can run roughshod over non-nuclear powers while the world "encourages compromise", then many non-nuclear powers will seek to get nukes. The more countries that have nukes, the greater the potential for nuclear war to occur.

Nobody here has suggested starting a fight with Russia, most are simply against forcing Ukraine to make peace with the country that butchers and rapes its population.


----------



## Skysix

suffolkowner said:


> Personally I think there is a good chance Russia retains Crimea and the Donbass. I know many Ukrainians might not be happy with that but a return more or less to the pre Feb 24 boundaries can probably be sold as a win of sorts to both sides. The Russian could of course fold up pretty quickly as well with a couple more battlefield defeats. Right now neither side appears very ready or willing to negotiate, they need to exhaust their options for a bit longer.
> 
> As far as the nukes are concerned I cant see how this doesnt spur at the very least some countries looking into nuclear arnament as the only true guarantee of independence


Even if the west stops helping Ukraine. They WILL keep fighting. Even Herb Tarlick is not a good enough salesman to get them to agree to letting Russia keep what they took in 2014 and plan their nest bite at the apple.

So now you have a high tech insurgency in European backyards. The world will then be less, not more, stable. And Russia will invade again once it has reconstituted itself to take more of Ukraine.


----------



## Good2Golf

Halifax Tar said:


> How about you answer my questions first ?
> 
> I tell ya, I don't have much faith in our political class but I sure hope they aren't as nuclear hawkish as many in this thread seem to be.
> 
> Cooler heads need to prevail in this situation.


Going in position, all annexed regions returned to UKR, and monetized reparations charged to Russia against any energy/gas/oil sales.  Also part of the settlement is Russia gives Girkhin up for prosecution for shooting down MH17.  

Your turn. 

I think your characterization of ‘nuclear hawkish’ implies that some of us are fixing for a nuclear exchange.  Is that what you mean?  That’s a very far stretch from what the most extreme position on that spectrum seems to be, Putin held to account for his direction of an unprovoked and unjustified genocidal/murderous melee into a sovereign nation.


----------



## Kat Stevens

Russia marches home, stopping at every farmhouse, outhouse, and doghouse, and apologizes to the occupants. That's a good start.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Good2Golf said:


> Going in position, all annexed regions returned to UKR, and monetized reparations charged to Russia against any energy/gas/oil sales.  Also part of the settlement is Russia gives Girkhin up for prosecution for shooting down MH17.
> 
> Your turn.
> 
> I think your characterization of ‘nuclear hawkish’ implies that some of us are fixing for a nuclear exchange.  Is that what you mean?  That’s a very far stretch from what the most extreme position on that spectrum seems to be, Putin held to account for his direction of an unprovoked and unjustified genocidal/murderous melee into a sovereign nation.



I'm perfectly fine with pre 2014 borders.  The problem is both the UKR and Rus get a say in that and when the fighting stops.  

If this would stay conventional they could fight until the cows come home as far as I care. 

I think some on this forum are far to willing to play chicken with Putin.  That's what I mean.



Furniture said:


> What you're advocating for will likely make the world a less safe place.
> 
> If nuclear armed powers can run roughshod over non-nuclear powers while the world "encourages compromise", then many non-nuclear powers will seek to get nukes. The more countries that have nukes, the greater the potential for nuclear war to occur.
> 
> Nobody here has suggested starting a fight with Russia, most are simply against forcing Ukraine to make peace with the country that butchers and rapes its population.



Well, peace is going to have to made at some point, or else.  We made it with Nazis and we made it with the Japanese Empire.  Both of which were butchers on a grand scale. 

I would love to see the UKR get it's lost territory back, I truly would.  But it's not worth a global nuclear exchange, in my eyes.  

I don't know if you can tell, but I'm pretty cemented in my stance.  Perhaps it's time agree to disagree.


----------



## Good2Golf

Halifax Tar said:


> The problem is both the UKR and Rus get a say in that and when the fighting stops.


Why should Ukraine get a say?  They don’t have nuclear weapons.


----------



## Navy_Pete

Good2Golf said:


> How much of Ukraine would you let Putin have, then?


I think the answer from Ukraine is pretty clearly none, and I think they are all out of compromise (and maybe taking prisoners). 

I have no idea how many war crimes you can live with, but I think Russia has blown past that, and they still keep bombing apartment buildings, hospitals, filling mass graves, looting, raping and otherwise ignoring any basic rules of the Geneva convention.


----------



## Halifax Tar

Good2Golf said:


> Why should Ukraine get a say?  They don’t have nuclear weapons.



Old buddy, you're gonna have to expand.  I don't see what you're getting at.  It's the UKR and Rus fighting, those are the two who will decide when it's over one way or another. 



Navy_Pete said:


> I think the answer from Ukraine is pretty clearly none, and I think they are all out of compromise (and maybe taking prisoners).
> 
> I have no idea how many war crimes you can live with, but I think Russia has blown past that, and they still keep bombing apartment buildings, hospitals, filling mass graves, looting, raping and otherwise ignoring any basic rules of the Geneva convention.



Young fella, there are war crimes/crimes against humanity that go on all over this world. Most of them don't even make the CBC National anymore.  

Let's just try to keep from floating away with our emotions. 

Not trying to be a dick, just keeping things in perspective.


----------



## Good2Golf

Halifax Tar said:


> Old buddy, you're gonna have to expand. I don't see what you're getting at. It's the UKR and Rus fighting, those are the two who will decide when it's over one way or another.


Sorry, I must have misinterpreted your earlier statements about what Ukraine and Russia should agree.  So then no else has the right to strong arm Ukraine into accepting conditions?

I agree, if that’s your position. It seems that many people are pressing for Ukraine to have to compromise their own position so as to eliminate any chance of Putin employing nuclear weapons.


----------



## ModlrMike

This discussion reminds me of something Churchill once said:

"An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile — hoping it will eat him last."


----------



## Kirkhill

Halifax Tar said:


> How about you answer my questions first ?
> 
> I tell ya, I don't have much faith in our political class but I sure hope they aren't as nuclear hawkish as many in this thread seem to be.
> 
> Cooler heads need to prevail in this situation.





To the list you could add Yugoslavia, Austria, Finland and Sweden as well as Afghanistan.

These are all countries that had to deal with the fallout from the Feb 11th Conference at Yalta.  And all of them are in the target zone for tactical nuclear weapons.  And most of them are particularly adamant that they would rather risk a nuke than subject themselves again to Moscow.

They will not look kindly on being betrayed again.


----------



## Navy_Pete

Halifax Tar said:


> Young fella, there are war crimes/crimes against humanity that go on all over this world. Most of them don't even make the CBC National anymore.
> 
> Let's just try to keep from floating away with our emotions.
> 
> Not trying to be a dick, just keeping things in perspective.


I really just meant from the UKR perspective; they are the ones fighting on the front line, and I think they are done compromising with Russia. They've been at a low scale war since the 2014 invasion, and some kind of diplomatic solution may have been possible right up until Russia invaded this year.

Really doesn't matter what we are willing to accept here in the West; they are the ones seeing the war crimes against their civilians first hand, and are objectively kicking ass. Russia f*ked aroudn for 8 years, and are now finding out. I also don't see UKR losing public support on this either, and the talks of sanctions against Saudi Arabia from the US should give a good idea of how much real support they have.

I think UKR might stop at the old borders, but I think they will likely have zero tolerance for any shenanigans from Russia ever again, and Russia is turning itself into a complete pariah. All the gains they made at joining the rest of the world since the 90s is pretty much gone, and probably the biggest boost for NATO in 40 years.


----------



## Kirkhill

I know we are not going to change minds here.  I just want to put a couple of documents on the table for consideration.



Halifax Tar said:


> Well, peace is going to have to made at some point, or else.  We made it with Nazis and we made it with the Japanese Empire.  Both of which were butchers on a grand scale.





> Italy surrenders unconditionally​Allies themselves chose cease-fire date
> 
> Thu 9 Sep 1943 17.04 BST
> 
> Italy has surrendered unconditionally to the Allies, and hostilities between the United Nations and Italy ended early yesterday evening.





> 1945
> May 07
> *Germany surrenders unconditionally* to the Allies at Reims​On May 7, 1945, *the German High Command, in the person of General Alfred Jodl, signs the unconditional surrender of all German forces,* East and West, at Reims, in northeastern France.





> Surrender of Japan (1945)​EnlargeDownload Link
> Citation: Instrument of Surrender; September 2, 1945; Records of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff; Record Group 218; National Archives.
> View All Pages in the National Archives Catalog
> View Transcript
> *Aboard the USS Missouri, this instrument of surrender was signed on September 2, 1945, by the Japanese envoys Foreign Minister Mamora Shigemitsu and Gen. Yoshijiro Umezu.*
> 
> On September 2, 1945, Japanese representatives signed the official Instrument of Surrender, prepared by the War Department and approved by President Harry S. Truman. It set out in eight short paragraphs the complete capitulation of Japan. The opening words, "We, acting by command of and in behalf of the Emperor of Japan," signified the importance attached to the Emperor's role by the Americans who drafted the document. The short second paragraph went straight to the heart of the matter: *"We hereby proclaim the unconditional surrender to the Allied Powers of the Japanese Imperial General Headquarters and of all Japanese armed forces and all armed forces under Japanese control wherever situated."*



There was no negotiated end to WW2, in either Italy, Germany or Japan.  Terms were dictated on the battlefield.


----------



## suffolkowner

Kirkhill said:


> I know we are not going to change minds here.  I just want to put a couple of documents on the table for consideration.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There was no negotiated end to WW2, in either Italy, Germany or Japan.  Terms were dictated on the battlefield.


perhaps this is a problem though? It colours our idea of what the outcome of war should be?


----------



## Kirkhill

suffolkowner said:


> perhaps this is a problem though? It colours our idea of what the outcome of war should be?



That is true.  

But it is easy to negotiate with the lands and futures of others.   There is a reason the Asians and Africans are sitting on their hands this time.  Usually they are the ones being told they must negotiate in the interests of world peace.


----------



## Blackadder1916

Halifax Tar said:


> Well, peace is going to have to made at some point, or else.  We *made it with Nazis* and we *made it with the Japanese Empire*.  Both of which were butchers on a grand scale.



"Making peace" suggests reaching a compromise and mutual agreement.  We They didn't do that with either Germany or Japan.  They militarily crushed both until both "unconditionally surrendered".  Peace, specifically the peace treaties that officially ended the wars, did not come about until years later after the political/militaristic systems that led to them being "butchers" had been disassembled and replaced by constitutional and cultural restraints that transformed both countries into premier democracies and friends of their former enemies (well, most of their former enemies).  The peace treaty with Japan wasn't reached until 1951 and "technically" the treaty with Germany until 1990.

If we apply the same criteria in reaching agreement with Russia, we'd have to break a lot more of their stuff and kill a lot more of their leaders before making peace.


----------



## brihard

I’m really interested to see what Moscow does once the port of Sevastopol is seriously threatened. That’s gonna be a strategic game changer for them.


----------



## Portnord

If Russia gets any kind of compromise by threatening nuclear war, good luck stopping Ukraine from building it's own nukes for the next round of fighting. They've already given those away, plus basing rights, plus land, plus more land, plus lives. What are we (the west) going to offer? Security guarantees? Again? Cue Rocky the flying squirrel with a Ukrainian accent.

The fact that monumental #@%#*$ in the Kremlin keeps hinting he'll use nukes to get his way just makes it more necessary for him to lose the war, and lose it clearly.

I hate the idea on both a grand and personal scale. At least one of my boys is likely to be out there in the next 24 months. But this isn't like quietly ransoming a couple of kidnapped travellers. The whole planet needs to sack up and take a bite of this shit sandwich and stomp on the idea before every other dictator decides a few nukes would speed up the bargaining process for a bigger slice of his regional pie.

We cannot normalize the use or threat of nukes in conflict or negotiations and expect the world to be safer.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

More details on the Red-on-Red shooting that left 11 dead near Belgorod.



> 'We don’t know how he got to Belgorod' Relatives say alleged military training ground shooter disappeared in Moscow five days before the attack​12:53 am, October 19, 2022
> Source: Meduza
> 
> 
> Taisia Vorontsova / URA.RU / TASS
> 
> *Journalists from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Tajik service have identified the family of one of the possible perpetrators of the mass shooting at a military training ground in Russia’s Belgorod region on October 15.* The man in question is a 24-year-old named Ehson Aminzoda. The Russian authorities have not officially named him as a suspect, but several days after the incident, Ukrainian blogger Anatoly Shariy published a photo of an official military document listing Aminzoda as a private along with photos of the shooting victims. Shariy didn’t indicate whether Aminzoda was one of the gunmen or one of the victims.
> 
> *People who knew Aminzoda said he didn’t plan to join the war and wasn’t a religious radical.* They told Radio Liberty that he went to Russia seven months ago and worked at a restaurant. A friend of Aminzoda, speaking anonymously, told journalists that Aminzoda had no intention of joining the war and that he wanted to return home to Tajikistan and have a wedding after saving up some money. “He didn’t have radical leanings; he was no different from any other young guy. If he were an Islamic radical, he never would have worked in a restaurant,” said the friend.
> 
> *According to Aminzoda’s family, he stopped contacting them on October 10 — five days before the shooting at the training ground.* His brother, Firuz Aminzoda, said that on the evening of October 10, Ehson called him and said he was going to meet some friends (according to one friend, Ehson “met some guys he knew near the Lyublino metro station” in Moscow). From that point on, his phone was turned off. “We don’t know how he got to Belgorod,” said Firuz Aminzoda, who told journalists he was called to the military prosecutor’s office in Moscow. Ehson Aminzoda’s father confirmed his son’s death to Radio Freedom but declined to comment on the situation.
> 
> *It’s not clear how Ehson Aminzoda ended up in the Russian army*. In mid-October, Moscow police were reportedly rounding up draft-eligible men outside of metro stations. According to Aminzoda’s family, however, he wasn’t a Russian citizen and thus could not legally be conscripted into the army. While Russia’s mobilization campaign has been rife with legal violations, Moscow was unable to find evidence that people without Russian citizenship were forcibly enlisted. Foreigners can, however, sign up to fight in the Russian army willingly, and the Telegram post from Anatoly Shariy, who published a picture of the document with Aminzoda’s name, indicates that the gunmen were volunteers.
> 
> *On October 17, Russian media published the names of 11 people who were allegedly killed in the attack. Two of them turned out to be alive.* After the news outlets Astra and Baza published a list of victims’ names, two of the soldiers — Denis Sinitsyn and Alexey Sapkalov — contacted the journalists to tell them they’d been added by mistake.
> 
> 
> *The mass shooting at the training ground in the village of Soloty in Russia’s Belgorod region occurred on October 15. *According to reports from the Russian Defense Ministry and Investigative Committee, 11 soldiers were killed and 15 were injured. There have been unofficial reports that more people — between 22 and 28 — were killed, but this remains unconfirmed. The Russian Defense Ministry said that the attack was carried out by two citizens of “one of the CIS countries” (though multiple witnesses have anonymously said that there were three gunmen and that one of them escaped). The ministry described the event as a terrorist attack. The Investigative Committee reported it was opening a criminal case, but did not specify the charges.
> 
> *According to Astra, the attack was carried out on religious grounds*. The outlet reported that after one of the unit’s commanders, Andrey Lapin, got angry at three soldiers (one of them Dagestani, one Azerbaijani, and one Adygean) for refusing to stay in the army and called the war in Ukraine “holy,” two ethnically Tajik soldiers responded that a holy war is one waged by Muslims against non-believers. Lapin then allegedly called Allah a “weakling” and a “coward.” The Tajik servicemen allegedly then told other Muslims on the firing range to step aside, killed the lieutenant colonel, and started firing randomly. They were reportedly killed by another soldier.
> 
> Astra stressed that the account was unconfirmed, as was the identity of their source. The person they spoke to claimed the gunmen’s names were Bikzot, Ami, and Anushe. The following day, Astra published a list of alleged perpetrators and victims, and this time two more men were listed as attackers: Aminzod Tojiddin and Mehrob Rahmonov. The list of victims did not include Andrey Lapin, who supposedly called Allah a “weakling.”
> 
> *Russian authorities have still not officially reported how many gunmen were involved in the shooting or why the attack occurred.* The Telegram channel VChK-OGPU, citing unnamed sources in Tajikistan, reported that one of the shooters may have been a man named Muhammad Dilshodboizoda. According to the source, Dilshodboizoda disappeared in Moscow on October 10 along with Ehson Aminzoda. “According to information his family received, he may have been forcibly ‘mobilized’ along with Ehson,” VChK-OGPU reported, adding that Ehson’s relatives were notified that he was stopped by police in the Lyublino metro station on the day he disappeared. Radio Liberty, who spoke to Ehson’s family, hasn’t reported this allegation.



 Link


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Second article from Meduza media, this time reporting on the SU-34 crash in Krasnodar Region.



> The Su-34 pilots will have ‘quite a lot of questions’ to answer What experts are saying about the Yeysk bomber plane crash​10:02 am, October 18, 2022
> Source: Meduza
> 
> 
> On October 17, a Su-34 bomber plane crashed near a nine-story apartment building in Yeysk, a Russian town in the Krasnodar Region. The plane struck the building and fell apart, reported the local emergency service. Spilled aircraft fuel then caught fire, which spread to the building and soon engulfed it in flames. It took six hours to extinguish the massive fire, which damaged a total of 72 apartments. Rescue teams have now finished searching for people under the rubble. 13 people are reported dead, including three children. Three of the victims died after jumping from the top floors as they tried to escape the fire, said Anna Minkova, the region’s deputy governor. 19 more people have been injured, including five children and two pregnant women. Four of the people who have been hospitalized are still in intensive care. A three-day mourning period has been declared in Yeysk. Meanwhile, experts are beginning to probe what might have caused the crash.
> 
> According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the crash was caused by a malfunction of one of the plane’s engines, which caught fire during a training flight. The moment when the Su-34 began to fall has been captured on video, where it can be seen losing altitude. Next, there’s a flash of light, and, seconds later, a plume of fire and smoke can be seen. The two pilots were able to eject from the plane. Later, they reported the malfunction of one of the engines. A person who spotted one of the ejected pilots in the street soon published a video, in which the pilot says that the plane had not been shot down.
> 
> Prior to the fire, the building housed 675 people. 501 of them are now staying with relatives, and 23 have been moved to temporary housing. The government has promised to pay for the victims’ funerals, and more financial assistance to the survivors. The families of people who died in the fire will each receive one million roubles (just over $16,000). Those with severe injuries will be paid 400,000 rubles (just over $6,000); people with less serious injuries will get half of that amount. There will be some compensation for lost property. District officials in Yeysk have declared a three-day mourning period on October 17–19.
> 
> Videos recorded by witnesses to the crash have captured the sound of several explosions. The authorities deny the earlier reports that the plane was flying with a full load of ammunition. “There was no blast to speak of, that’s why the nearby buildings haven’t as much as lost their windows,” said the Russian Emergency Situations Minister Alexander Kurenkov.
> 
> Valeriy Romanenko, a Ukrainian aviation expert, agrees with this assessment:
> The ammunition was either minimal, or just some training ammunition, because the audible small explosions are from the onboard cannon cartridges. They have a 30-millimeter cannon, and so that series of small blasts is the cannon shells fuses going off in the fire. There aren’t any big explosions.
> 
> A criminal case has been opened under the Criminal Code Article 351 (violations of flight preparation rules, with maximal punishment of up to seven years in prison). The Investigative Committee says that investigators
> took fuel samples at the departure airfield, as well as the necessary documentation. They’re questioning the pilots, who had time to eject, as well as the airfield’s personnel. The flight recorders have been recovered from the crash site and await examination.
> 
> Vladimir Popov, a retired military pilot, spoke about the crash to Fontanka, an independent news site. He called it an exceptionally rare event:
> 
> I can recall only one other instance of a plane striking an apartment building. This only happened once, in Novosibirsk. That time, it had to do with the civil pilot’s psychiatric condition. He struck the building on purpose, but the plane did not explode — it only caught fire. I don’t know of any such cases in military aviation.
> 
> Popov has also stressed that military pilots are trained to eject only in situations when “there isn’t even the slightest danger of damaging the infrastructure on the ground.” He thinks that the two pilots who ejected from the Su-34 will have “quite a lot of questions” to answer to investigators. “I don’t envy such a pilot,” Popov went on, explaining that investigators will have to figure out whether the crash had been caused by the pilots’ behavior or by some technical factors.
> 
> Or, let’s suppose, they already brought the plane over an empty lot, but the air current changes; it turns the plane while the yokes are stuck in position, and the plane goes towards those unfortunate houses.
> 
> The Bell, a Telegram news channel, has calculated that yesterday’s crash is at least the tenth non-combat loss for the Russian air force since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. Su-34 is Russia’s key bomber plane model. Since 2014, it has replaced the earlier Su-24 in the Russian military aviation. Su-34 planes have been flown in Syria, and are now flown over Ukraine. There were no prior reports of combat flights leaving from Yeysk, at least in the open sources. BBC News Russian has, nevertheless, pointed out that Yeysk has a naval aviation training center, which prepares fighter pilots.
> 
> 
> Translated by Anna Razumnaya



 Link


----------



## Retired AF Guy

My final article from Meduza. As reported by different media, Russian authorities are evacuating from Kherson. And according to Russian sources who are stating that Ukrainian forces have  started a counter-offensive. 



> Occupation authorities in the annexed Kherson region of Ukraine have announced the start of a new Ukrainian offensive in that direction.* “Up to two infantry battalions of the 128 Motor Assault Brigade and a 17 Brigade tank battalion” have “launched an offensive in the Nova Kamianka–Beryslav direction*,” said Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the Russian-installed regional administration. The acting “governor” of Kherson, Volodymyr Saldo, says that “no one is about to surrender” Kherson. Still, Saldo has ordered to evacuate his administration to the left bank of the Dnieper. He also forbade any entry of traffic into the right-bank area for the coming week, urging all residents to leave. While the Ukrainian General Staff is silent about the offensive, *Russia’s General Surovikin says that he expects “to make some difficult decisions” in Kherson.*



Highlights are mine and rest of article can be found here.


----------



## Spencer100

Here is your scary piece of the day.  

One thought.  Is the MSN preparing the population for the US and NATO backdown by scary stories?  hmmmm



			Putin 'to hold emergency meeting' amid fears he'll put Russia on 'total war footing'
		


Escalate to deescalate?


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Forum thread on - Shahed-136 - Tracking usage & expanding understanding.

Keep in mind that forum is very pro-Iran/Russia









						Shahed-136 - Tracking usage & expanding understanding.
					

Iran's Shahed-136, technically an Israeli designation, never formally named by Iran only seen in published videos and images. Only seen for the first time in 2019 in Yemen, but may have been used previously.  What is this? A drone? A flying bomb? A body with fuel and warhead? Or something more ...



					defence.pk


----------



## Skysix

Inspection videos of the pipeline damage are out. 1 of the N2 lines is repairable or still in service. The explosion left metal bent outwards so not a command detonated subsurface mine but a maintenance pig with a large ammount of explosives (50m length blown out on the other N2 pipe). So now Russia will not have to pay out 'failure to deliver' penalties.


----------



## Kirkhill

I've been bitten once on this type of video due to my inability to speak Russian and relying on the translation....

But



> Russian state TV is preparing the viewers for the loss of Kherson and other territories​



NATO Training, NATO weapons, HIMARS, M777s, Excaliburs, Counterbattery Radar and lots of Ukrainians (4:1 local advantage) = evacuation of the left bank and no good news in Kherson or other territories through November and December at least.  The war is not lost.  Suck it up Tovarisch.

Doesn't sound like prelude to nuclear strikes.


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> I've been bitten once on this type of video due to my inability to speak Russian and relying on the translation....
> 
> But
> 
> 
> 
> NATO Training, NATO weapons, HIMARS, M777s, Excaliburs, Counterbattery Radar and lots of Ukrainians (4:1 local advantage) = evacuation of the left bank and no good news in Kherson or other territories through November and December at least.  The war is not lost.  Suck it up Tovarisch.
> 
> Doesn't sound like prelude to nuclear strikes.


Also Russian state TV


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1582840182960967680


----------



## Kirkhill

And it's good of the Ukrainians to supply Ukrainian lessons.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/y8ayox


----------



## Colin Parkinson

New 155's for them (new to the Ukrainians that is.)


----------



## Czech_pivo

Not directly about Ukraine, but it does affect them...









						UK Prime Minister Liz Truss resigns after failed budget and market turmoil
					

U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss resigned following a failed tax-cutting budget that rocked financial markets and which led to a revolt within her own Conservative Party.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## ringo

CAF 35mm Skyguard  cannons still in store? if so these should be sent to Ukraine ASAP, along with more 777s and for gods sake send some armed LAVs.


----------



## CBH99

MilEME09 said:


> Also Russian state TV
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1582840182960967680


Not to peddle in conspiracy theories, but it wouldn’t surprise me tbh.

It’s not like the US hasn’t used false flag operations in the past to give itself an avenue to get more involved in a conflict.  (Gulf of Tonka immediately comes to mind.)

The dangerous part about this kind of talk happening on Russian state TV is that we (the west) aren’t dealing with a country of rice farmers in fields, nor invading Grenada or Panama for a day. 

The Russians have the same tools in their toolbox when it comes to executing a false flag w/ nuclear consequences. 

People have a habit of believing in gossip and rumours if they hear it on TV, long after the gossip has been put to bed as being gossip. 

Stuff like this, when heard by the average Russian (who probably pays as much attention as people here did to Afghanistan) can lead to false yet dangerous conclusions…


----------



## CBH99

ringo said:


> CAF 35mm Skyguard  cannons still in store? if so these should be sent to Ukraine ASAP, along with more 777s and for gods sake send some armed LAVs.


Those twin 35mm cannons were amazingly badass.  I saw them used in a demonstration at an air show once - they set off all the car alarms, and the cars weren’t close!


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Apparently the VDV likes their captured M113 better than their BMP's








						Мир Михаила Онуфриенко
					

«Трофейная ласточка» — русские десантники показали затрофеенный на Херсонщине американский БТР  А вот и еще один трофей в коллекции русских воинов, собранной в Херсонской области. Воинам легендарной Псковской 76-й дивизии ВДВ, уже не первый месяц воюющие на Херсонских рубежах, среди прочего...




					t.me


----------



## Czech_pivo

CBH99 said:


> Not to peddle in conspiracy theories, but it wouldn’t surprise me tbh.
> 
> It’s not like the US hasn’t used false flag operations in the past to give itself an avenue to get more involved in a conflict.  (Gulf of Tonka immediately comes to mind.)
> 
> The dangerous part about this kind of talk happening on Russian state TV is that we (the west) aren’t dealing with a country of rice farmers in fields, nor invading Grenada or Panama for a day.
> 
> The Russians have the same tools in their toolbox when it comes to executing a false flag w/ nuclear consequences.
> 
> People have a habit of believing in gossip and rumours if they hear it on TV, long after the gossip has been put to bed as being gossip.
> 
> Stuff like this, when heard by the average Russian (who probably pays as much attention as people here did to Afghanistan) can lead to false yet dangerous conclusions…


Tell a lie often enough until it becomes the truth.


----------



## dapaterson

ringo said:


> CAF 35mm Skyguard  cannons still in store? if so these should be sent to Ukraine ASAP, along with more 777s and for gods sake send some armed LAVs.


If they are in store and they are maintained then the question becomes ammunition.


----------



## Spencer100

dapaterson said:


> If they are in store and they are maintained then the question becomes ammunition.


Do they not use the same (or very similar that they can use it) ammunition as the Gepards?  And they solved that ammunition problem.

Plus I thought I saw a picture of one as a gate guard at one of the bases.....I could be wrong.


----------



## Spencer100

Russian fighter jet 'released a missile' near unarmed British surveillance plane, U.K. defense secretary says
		


Well that explains why the Rivet Joints are now flying with two Typhoons escorts. 

Insert the movie clip everyone is thinking about!


----------



## Czech_pivo

Spencer100 said:


> Russian fighter jet 'released a missile' near unarmed British surveillance plane, U.K. defense secretary says
> 
> 
> 
> Well that explains why the Rivet Joints are now flying with two Typhoons escorts.
> 
> Insert the movie clip everyone is thinking about!



Here you go - from a great Czech director - Stanley Kubrick


----------



## Colin Parkinson

dapaterson said:


> If they are in store and they are maintained then the question becomes ammunition.


Apparently the same ammunition 









						Oerlikon GDF - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Spencer100

Czech_pivo said:


> Here you go - from a great Czech director - Stanley Kubrick


He'll see the big board!


----------



## brihard

Some developments towards the potential establishment of an ad hoc international tribunal to prosecute Russian war crimes in Ukraine:






						Dutch parliament supports special aggression tribunal for Ukraine
					






					nationalpost.com


----------



## Kirkhill

dapaterson said:


> If they are in store and they are maintained then the question becomes ammunition.



Similar problem with the LAVs though, no?  I know there is lots of 25mm around but I think the LAVs would be the only users in Ukraine.   I don't know how much we have that we could donate but we could probably buy a bunch from the Americans.


----------



## dapaterson

Glad that everyone walked right past the foundational question of whether they exist in anything resembling an operational state.


----------



## Spencer100

dapaterson said:


> Glad that everyone walked right past the foundational question of whether they exist in anything resembling an operational state.


I think was asked if they are maintained. I pointed that I think was was gate guard....so that one would need a tiny bit of work to fire.  Wash and oil?


----------



## NavyShooter

Gate guards are (almost always) welded up tight as a drum.  Train, elevate maybe, but functionally?  Welded up.  

You'd have more luck getting the 90mm guns outside the gates working again.


----------



## Spencer100

NavyShooter said:


> Gate guards are (almost always) welded up tight as a drum.  Train, elevate maybe, but functionally?  Welded up.
> 
> You'd have more luck getting the 90mm guns outside the gates working again.


I need a sarcasm button.........

I was doubting there is one working gun in the country.


----------



## OldSolduer

brihard said:


> Some developments towards the potential establishment of an ad hoc international tribunal to prosecute Russian war crimes in Ukraine:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Dutch parliament supports special aggression tribunal for Ukraine
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nationalpost.com


That could be interesting. First - and I am guessing it would be The Hague where they are tried - how do you get them there to appear before the court?


----------



## brihard

OldSolduer said:


> That could be interesting. First - and I am guessing it would be The Hague where they are tried - how do you get them there to appear before the court?


Obviously a major challenge. Such tribunals tend to have the effect of essentially locking accused individuals out of the western world. In other cases you may see some people live as fugitives for many years.

There’s precedent for this; such as hoc tribunals were established and operated in the wake of wars in the former Yugoslavia, Cambodia, and Rwanda. There have been convictions and imprisonments as a result.

Part of it is simply rejecting concepts of impunity, and the global community (mostly) rejecting such behaviour and saying “you don’t get to leave whatever shithole you’re hiding in”.


----------



## MilEME09

Okay, I give up, no one in the CF will ever be this good at making trenches, like the kitchen I git, but now a sauna?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1583155451713048582


----------



## dapaterson

Clearly used a Sauna Kit - Overhead Protection.


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> Okay, I give up, no one in the CF will ever be this good at making trenches, like the kitchen I git, but now a sauna?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1583155451713048582


As far as I know, this is the longest trench war ever. This explains that, methinks.

No military historian, though, I'd happily be schooled.


----------



## Kirkhill

Any idiot can be uncomfortable.


----------



## Skysix

In case anyone missed these and is wondering why Ukraine is so unwilling to negotiate a peace under Russian terms...











We (western media) need to stop referring to it as Putin's "Special Military Operation" and call it out for what it is, "Russia's Genocidal War on Ukraine"


----------



## Skysix

OldSolduer said:


> That could be interesting. First - and I am guessing it would be The Hague where they are tried - how do you get them there to appear before the court?


Many TLA's have lots of experience in clandestine operations and rendition.

(Three Letter Agencies)


----------



## OldSolduer

Skysix said:


> Many TLA's have lots of experience in clandestine operations and rendition.
> 
> (Three Letter Agencies)


Yes I suppose they do and they are not always successful.


----------



## KevinB

brihard said:


> Obviously a major challenge. Such tribunals tend to have the effect of essentially locking accused individuals out of the western world. In other cases you may see some people live as fugitives for many years.
> 
> There’s precedent for this; such as hoc tribunals were established and operated in the wake of wars in the former Yugoslavia, Cambodia, and Rwanda. There have been convictions and imprisonments as a result.
> 
> Part of it is simply rejecting concepts of impunity, and the global community (mostly) rejecting such behaviour and saying “you don’t get to leave whatever shithole you’re hiding in”.


Well we have also sent SMU’s places to grab people too…


----------



## KevinB

OldSolduer said:


> Yes I suppose they do and they are not always successful.


More often than not they are, but not always accredited… 

Just ask Pablo Escobar


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Halifax Tar said:


> How about you answer my questions first ?
> 
> I tell ya, I don't have much faith in our political class but I sure hope they aren't as nuclear hawkish as many in this thread seem to be.
> 
> Cooler heads need to prevail in this situation.


I'll bite.

Russia keeps Crimea, the Donbass, current gains in Zap Oblast which guarantees water security for Crimea and land access. A significant contributor to the current conflict.

Russia withdraws from the Western side of the Dnieper and cedes that part of Kherson Oblast to Ukraine.

Remainder of Ukraine is allowed to join NATO and is free to join the EU. NATO guarantees the security of the remainder of Ukraine.

Ukraine also keeps access to the Black Sea via Odessa and Snake Island (currently uncontrolled) is returned to Ukraine.

Ukrainian access to the Sea and Freedom of Navigation is guaranteed by NATO.  

Russia is forced to pay war reparations to Ukraine in exchange for gradual loosening of international sanctions.  This includes compensation for seized assets like ZNPP which Ukraine should be compensated for at fair market value.

Russian/Ukrainian language rights are guaranteed in each respective State.

War crimes from Maidan Revolution onward that were committed by both sides are investigated by an independent tribunal.  A reconciliation commission is formed akin to what was used in South Africa/Namibia for crimes with truth and reconciliation being the primary objective.

Border drawn between Annexed Russian Territories and Ukraine is also made a demilitarized zone.  



ModlrMike said:


> This discussion reminds me of something Churchill once said:
> 
> "An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile — hoping it will eat him last."



There is appeasement, then there is being a realist.  I don't give a crap about either Ukraine or Russia, not my people/not my problem.

There is plenty of sad shit and fighting everywhere.  Why is Ukraine somehow so important?

I do care abour Nuclear War though and I do care about my and my family's relative prosperity.  If Russia and Ukraine want to savage each other, let them, but they can use someone elses money and resources.




brihard said:


> I’m really interested to see what Moscow does once the port of Sevastopol is seriously threatened. That’s gonna be a strategic game changer for them.



It won't be, Ukraine is never getting Crimea back.  Kyiv will be nuked if it comes to that.


----------



## Spencer100

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I'll bite.
> 
> Russia keeps Crimea, the Donbass, current gains in Zap Oblast which guarantees water security for Crimea and land access. A significant contributor to the current conflict.
> 
> Russia withdraws from the Western side of the Dnieper and cedes that part of Kherson Oblast to Ukraine.
> 
> Remainder of Ukraine is allowed to join NATO and is free to join the EU. NATO guarantees the security of the remainder of Ukraine.
> 
> Ukraine also keeps access to the Black Sea via Odessa and Snake Island (currently uncontrolled) is returned to Ukraine.
> 
> Ukrainian access to the Sea and Freedom of Navigation is guaranteed by NATO.
> 
> Russia is forced to pay war reparations to Ukraine in exchange for gradual loosening of international sanctions.  This includes compensation for seized assets like ZNPP which Ukraine should be compensated for at fair market value.
> 
> Russian/Ukrainian language rights are guaranteed in each respective State.
> 
> War crimes from Maidan Revolution onward that were committed by both sides are investigated by an independent tribunal.  A reconciliation commission is formed akin to what was used in South Africa/Namibia for crimes with truth and reconciliation being the primary objective.
> 
> Border drawn between Annexed Russian Territories and Ukraine is also made a demilitarized zone.
> 
> 
> 
> There is appeasement, then there is being a realist.  I don't give a crap about either Ukraine or Russia, not my people/not my problem.
> 
> There is plenty of sad shit and fighting everywhere.  Why is Ukraine somehow so important?
> 
> I do care abour Nuclear War though and I do care about my and my family's relative prosperity.  If Russia and Ukraine want to savage each other, let them, but they can use someone elses money and resources.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It won't be, Ukraine is never getting Crimea back.  Kyiv will be nuked if it comes to that.


Too many other pieces on the board now for this solution.  But we will see.

China, Iran, the Stan's, Turkey even OPEC.  The world power structure will be changed after this.  Where does the EU go?  The US? What does Xi take away from this?

I don't think the average person understands the giant shifts happening.  They see price increases and problems at home.  

But back to this the US midterms will have an impact.  With Republicans mostly likely to win the senate and the house funding of the war will be changing.  They will want a peace deal.    Germany wants a peace deal.  But does Boris come back in UK?


----------



## TacticalTea

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I'll bite.
> 
> Russia keeps Crimea, the Donbass, current gains in Zap Oblast which guarantees water security for Crimea and land access. A significant contributor to the current conflict.
> 
> Russia withdraws from the Western side of the Dnieper and cedes that part of Kherson Oblast to Ukraine.
> 
> Remainder of Ukraine is allowed to join NATO and is free to join the EU. NATO guarantees the security of the remainder of Ukraine.
> 
> Ukraine also keeps access to the Black Sea via Odessa and Snake Island (currently uncontrolled) is returned to Ukraine.
> 
> Ukrainian access to the Sea and Freedom of Navigation is guaranteed by NATO.
> 
> Russia is forced to pay war reparations to Ukraine in exchange for gradual loosening of international sanctions.  This includes compensation for seized assets like ZNPP which Ukraine should be compensated for at fair market value.
> 
> Russian/Ukrainian language rights are guaranteed in each respective State.
> 
> War crimes from Maidan Revolution onward that were committed by both sides are investigated by an independent tribunal.  A reconciliation commission is formed akin to what was used in South Africa/Namibia for crimes with truth and reconciliation being the primary objective.
> 
> Border drawn between Annexed Russian Territories and Ukraine is also made a demilitarized zone.
> 
> 
> 
> There is appeasement, then there is being a realist.  I don't give a crap about either Ukraine or Russia, not my people/not my problem.
> 
> There is plenty of sad shit and fighting everywhere.  Why is Ukraine somehow so important?
> 
> I do care abour Nuclear War though and I do care about my and my family's relative prosperity.  If Russia and Ukraine want to savage each other, let them, but they can use someone elses money and resources.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It won't be, Ukraine is never getting Crimea back.  Kyiv will be nuked if it comes to that.


Cool plan. And then, two years later, Russia conducts another invasion because it has been shown to work with minimal repercussions.

China invades Taiwan, same rationale. The fall of democracy continues to accelerate; we've bought temporary peace at the price of freedom.

Fortress America becomes increasingly isolated and - looking at the happenings south of the border - divided.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Spencer100 said:


> Too many other pieces on the board now for this solution.  But we will see.
> 
> China, Iran, the Stan's, Turkey even OPEC.  The world power structure will be changed after this.  Where does the EU go?  The US? What does Xi take away from this?
> 
> I don't think the average person understands the giant shifts happening.  They see price increases and problems at home.
> 
> But back to this the US midterms will have an impact.  With Republicans mostly likely to win the senate and the house funding of the war will be changing.  They will want a peace deal.    Germany wants a peace deal.  But does Boris come back in UK?


There are indeed a lot of pieces on the board atm.  If we were smart in this Country, we would be looking after our own interests first 😉.

Tbh, I think the winter campaign will be particularly brutal for Ukraine.  

Russia has now shown they are willing to now go scorched earth on Ukraine, whereas before they were still trying to preserve the infrastructure before.  Mostly because I believe they realize that they will be unable to Annex Western Ukraine/Kyiv or control it politically, so better to savage them and leave them with Pyrrhic Victory then continue to try and coerce them.

I see the current trend of the war as a zero-sum game where nobody is really going to "WIN" at the end.  Russia may not achieve its objectives but it can leave with it's tail between it's legs and not too screwed.  It's home front hasn't even been scratched in comparison to the devastation brought upon its adversary.

Ukraine is screwed economically and demographically at this point.  The prolonging of the war all but guarantees they will never recover demographically from this, even with stimulus from the West.  

It's going to be a REAL REAL big Moldova at this point.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

TacticalTea said:


> Cool plan. And then, two years later, Russia conducts another invasion because it has been shown to work with minimal repercussions.


How does it due that with NATO guaranteeing Ukrainian Security and access to the Sea? 

You clearly don't read do you, try to be a little less emotional and actually take in what is written.



TacticalTea said:


> China invades Taiwan, same rationale. The fall of democracy continues to accelerate; we've bought temporary peace at the price of freedom.
> 
> Fortress America becomes increasingly isolated and - looking at the happenings south of the border - divided.



So I am talking about something that is happening and has happened, you're discussing a hypothetical situation.  

There is a big difference.


----------



## TacticalTea

Humphrey Bogart said:


> How does it due that with NATO guaranteeing Ukrainian Security and access to the Sea?
> 
> You clearly don't read do you, try to be a little less emotional and actually take in what is written.
> 
> 
> 
> So I am talking about something that is happening and has happened, you're discussing a hypothetical situation.
> 
> There is a big difference.


I didn't say necessarily another invasion of Ukraine. I'm just highlighting the danger inherent in incentivizing invasions. 

The second part isn't really hypothetical. Russia has shown time and again that it cares little for treaties that it signs, and American intelligence and high command keeps reminding us that China intends to invade Taiwan.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

TacticalTea said:


> I didn't say necessarily another invasion of Ukraine. I'm just highlighting the danger inherent in incentivizing invasions.


Invasions happen all too frequently and borders are ever changing.

Why is this invasion any different from US Military misadventures since 2001?  Oh I don't know, like 2003 Invasion of Iraq?

It's not any different.  Ultimately this will, like all other conflicts, end in some sort of negotiation and settlement.  What that looks like is anyones guess.

Proposals will be made, both sides will probably open with "Unconditional Surrender" and then work inward from there.  It is what it is!



TacticalTea said:


> The second part isn't really hypothetical. Russia has shown time and again that it cares little for treaties that it signs, and American intelligence and high command keeps reminding us that China intends to invade Taiwan.


Neither does the US or any other serious power 😉

Treaties only matter if you can enforce them.  Look at UNCLOS, did you know the US isn't a signatory of UNCLOS?  Despite being the supposed guarantor of Freedom of the Seas and Navigation?

Try telling them to follow the rules, oh wait they don't care because we have no way of making them care.


----------



## TacticalTea

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Invasions happen all too frequently and borders are ever changing.


That's not particularly true. Might've been two hundred years ago.

The world today is largely static compared to any other time in written history. And international wars - of territorial expansion especially, and as opposed to internal wars - are exceptionally rare.


Humphrey Bogart said:


> Why is this invasion any different from US Military misadventures since 2001?  Oh I don't know, like 2003 Invasion of Iraq?


The US didn't seek to expand its territory and ethnically cleanse the new lands, but to check a regime that had WMDs, wanted others to believe it had nukes, and had a history of aggression and genocide.


Humphrey Bogart said:


> Neither does the US or any other serious power 😉
> 
> Treaties only matter if you can enforce them.  Look at UNCLOS, did you know the US isn't a signatory of UNCLOS?  Despite being the supposed guarantor of Freedom of the Seas and Navigation?


Yes? How is not signing a treaty in the first place an example of violating a treaty? Can't violate something you haven't signed.


Humphrey Bogart said:


> Try telling them to follow the rules, oh wait they don't care because we have no way of making them care.


Peace through strength. Putin can and will back down in the face of adversity.


----------



## Skysix




----------



## Humphrey Bogart

TacticalTea said:


> That's not particularly true. Might've been two hundred years ago.


Check your facts:






						List of national border changes (1914–present) - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org
				




Europe alone has changed territory around a dozen times since 1991.  FRY, is now 7 different countries.  

There was even changes in Canada this year.  We decided along with Denmark to draw a line down the centre of Hans Island and call it even 😉


TacticalTea said:


> The world today is largely static compared to any other time in written history. And international wars - of territorial expansion especially - are exceptionally rare.


Again, beg to differ:









						List of ongoing armed conflicts - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org
				




There is plenty of conflict, a number of wars also involving territorial expansion and conquest.



TacticalTea said:


> The US didn't seek to expand its territory and ethnically cleanse the new lands, but to check a regime that had WMDs, wanted others to believe it had nukes, and had a history of aggression and genocide.


The US lied about the Regime having WMDs and went into Iraq under false pretenses, much like the Russians have done in Ukraine.

They conducted a Regime change as well, like Russia tried but failed to achieve in Ukraine. I don't even know how you can dispute the above?



TacticalTea said:


> Yes? How is not signing a treaty in the first place an example of violating a treaty? Can't violate something you haven't signed.


This proves my point 😉









						On International Treaties, the United States Refuses to Play Ball
					

In lists of state parties to globally significant treaties, the United States is often notably absent. Ratification hesitancy is a chronic impairment to international U.S. credibility and influence.




					www.cfr.org
				




The United States is a laggard when it comes to respecting International Treaties and Norms. 

It's deluded that you can't even acknowledge this.



TacticalTea said:


> Peace through strength. Putin can and will back down in the face of adversity.



Exactly:  might is right, that's the only thing that truly matters.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

I read Hans Blix's reports to the UNSC, even he felt Saddam was hiding something and immediately after the invasion I remember a Iraqi general being interviewed who issued NBC gear to his troops because he thought Saddam was going to unleash WMD's onto the Americans. Part of the issue was that Saddam was a convincing lair, had used WMD's on his enemies and citizens. He had previously lied and been caught (thanks to his brother inlaw defecting) and had attacked pretty much every neighbouring country at one point or another. Not to mentioning creating the two greatest environmental catastrophes in the region.  So the belief that he had them is not much of a stretch,
Iraqi exposed just how little the world will do to impose on leaders who don't give a shit. France, China and Russia were all owed billions by Saddam and they wanted access to his oil reserves in exchange, that's why they didn't want him overthrown as they knew they never get their money back otherwise. I find the finger wagging at the US on this issue quite annoying. How long do you think Saddam would play ball with the UN if the US had pulled it's troops out of KSA? With no invasion, you would see the rearming of Iraq under Saddam and his sons who actually made Saddam look sane.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Colin Parkinson said:


> I read Hans Blix's reports to the UNSC, even he felt Saddam was hiding something and immediately after the invasion I remember a Iraqi general being interviewed who issued NBC gear to his troops because he thought Saddam was going to unleash WMD's onto the Americans. Part of the issue was that Saddam was a convincing lair, had used WMD's on his enemies and citizens. He had previously lied and been caught (thanks to his brother inlaw defecting) and had attacked pretty much every neighbouring country at one point or another. Not to mentioning creating the two greatest environmental catastrophes in the region.  So the belief that he had them is not much of a stretch,
> Iraqi exposed just how little the world will do to impose on leaders who don't give a shit. France, China and Russia were all owed billions by Saddam and they wanted access to his oil reserves in exchange, that's why they didn't want him overthrown as they knew they never get their money back otherwise. I find the finger wagging at the US on this issue quite annoying. How long do you think Saddam would play ball with the UN if the US had pulled it's troops out of KSA? With no invasion, you would see the rearming of Iraq under Saddam and his sons who actually made Saddam look sane.


But you get my point on this though right?

I find it super ironic that Canadians will somehow defend American non-adherence to international law when they have screwed us more times than I can count on any number of treaties.  Softwood Lumber anyone?  NAFTA?  Agricultural Subsidies, etc.

Countries don't have friends, they have interests. 

I personally find the comparisons to 1939 and quoting Churchill to be completely over the top. 

Russia is on the one hand: "completely militarily incompetent" according to some and we would wipe the floor with them.

Then the same people are also saying "they're the greatest threat to humanity and no negotiation, we must fight to the last Ukrainian!"

So which is it?  

IMO there will eventually have to be a settlement, what I wrote was merely a proposal.  Feel free to disagree with it but it's probably closer to the likely outcome than the complete collapse of Russia.


----------



## Kat Stevens

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I'll bite.
> 
> Russia keeps Crimea, the Donbass, current gains in Zap Oblast which guarantees water security for Crimea and land access. A significant contributor to the current conflict.
> 
> Russia withdraws from the Western side of the Dnieper and cedes that part of Kherson Oblast to Ukraine.
> 
> Remainder of Ukraine is allowed to join NATO and is free to join the EU. NATO guarantees the security of the remainder of Ukraine.
> 
> Ukraine also keeps access to the Black Sea via Odessa and Snake Island (currently uncontrolled) is returned to Ukraine.
> 
> Ukrainian access to the Sea and Freedom of Navigation is guaranteed by NATO.
> 
> Russia is forced to pay war reparations to Ukraine in exchange for gradual loosening of international sanctions.  This includes compensation for seized assets like ZNPP which Ukraine should be compensated for at fair market value.
> 
> Russian/Ukrainian language rights are guaranteed in each respective State.
> 
> War crimes from Maidan Revolution onward that were committed by both sides are investigated by an independent tribunal.  A reconciliation commission is formed akin to what was used in South Africa/Namibia for crimes with truth and reconciliation being the primary objective.
> 
> Border drawn between Annexed Russian Territories and Ukraine is also made a demilitarized zone.
> 
> 
> 
> There is appeasement, then there is being a realist.  I don't give a crap about either Ukraine or Russia, not my people/not my problem.
> 
> There is plenty of sad shit and fighting everywhere.  Why is Ukraine somehow so important?
> 
> I do care abour Nuclear War though and I do care about my and my family's relative prosperity.  If Russia and Ukraine want to savage each other, let them, but they can use someone elses money and resources.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It won't be, Ukraine is never getting Crimea back.  Kyiv will be nuked if it comes to that.


I come to your house and take over your garage. I say it is mine now. 2 years later I put a fence around a large chunk of your back yard and decide it too is mine now. You get mad and finally nut up and come kick a fairly large hole in my ass and take some of what I now call mine back.  We're both getting tired at this point and I threaten to drop a large rock on your house, so it's decided I keep your garage and most of what I just put the fence around. Yay! Peace at last!   Although... the guy on the other side of me has a pretty nice garage, too.....


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> But you get my point on this though right?
> 
> I find it super ironic that Canadians will somehow defend American non-adherence to international law when they have screwed us more times than I can count on any number of treaties.  Softwood Lumber anyone?  NAFTA?  Agricultural Subsidies, etc.
> 
> Countries don't have friends, they have interests.
> 
> I personally find the comparisons to 1939 and quoting Churchill to be completely over the top.
> 
> Russia is on the one hand: "completely militarily incompetent" according to some and we would wipe the floor with them.
> 
> Then the same people are also saying "they're the greatest threat to humanity and no negotiation, we must fight to the last Ukrainian!"
> 
> So which is it?
> 
> IMO there will eventually have to be a settlement, what I wrote was merely a proposal.  Feel free to disagree with it but it's probably closer to the likely outcome than the complete collapse of Russia.




At times I feel a Maude Barlow vibe coming from you.  Kind of an anti-nationalist nationalist sentiment.   I can't share your abhorrence (if that isn't too strong a word) of all things American.  Nor can I share the Canadian sentiment that proclaims our greatness on the grounds that we aren't American.

Personally, I've gotten used to feet of clay.


----------



## Spencer100

Humphrey Bogart said:


> There are indeed a lot of pieces on the board atm.  If we were smart in this Country, we would be looking after our own interests first 😉.
> 
> Tbh, I think the winter campaign will be particularly brutal for Ukraine.
> 
> Russia has now shown they are willing to now go scorched earth on Ukraine, whereas before they were still trying to preserve the infrastructure before.  Mostly because I believe they realize that they will be unable to Annex Western Ukraine/Kyiv or control it politically, so better to savage them and leave them with Pyrrhic Victory then continue to try and coerce them.
> 
> I see the current trend of the war as a zero-sum game where nobody is really going to "WIN" at the end.  Russia may not achieve its objectives but it can leave with it's tail between it's legs and not too screwed.  It's home front hasn't even been scratched in comparison to the devastation brought upon its adversary.
> 
> Ukraine is screwed economically and demographically at this point.  The prolonging of the war all but guarantees they will never recover demographically from this, even with stimulus from the West.
> 
> It's going to be a REAL REAL big Moldova at this point.


If we were smart we would be looking after our interests. But sadly no.  We would be building pipelines and NG terminals.  We would pumping overtime.  We could build the country with the cheapest, most moral, ethical, environmental current energy in the world.   Sell to the world, make money pump that money into the future new energy ideas.  Also make Canadian energy cheaper for Canadians.  Many on this board want to build new system in Canada or get new ones. This would make Canadian manufacturing more cost effective. etc etc.  I could go on on...but I am a minority of one.


----------



## Spencer100

Kirkhill said:


> At times I feel a Maude Barlow vibe coming from you.  Kind of an anti-nationalist nationalist sentiment.   I can't share your abhorrence (if that isn't too strong a word) of all things American.  Nor can I share the Canadian sentiment that proclaims our greatness on the grounds that we aren't American.
> 
> Personally, I've gotten used to feet of clay.


I hate anti Americanism from Canadians. (I live in Windsor LOL so I'm different. We all know the real border is London) 

Like I say, fine down with America.  Which do you want?  Medicare and be in the US camp or Neutral and here is the bill....OK then no Medicare.  Choose.   (Yes even with number one we can still be critical of the US just not the crazy Anti American I see at times.)


----------



## Mills Bomb

> Spencer100 said:
> 
> 
> 
> If we were smart we would be looking after our interests. But sadly no.  We would be building pipelines and NG terminals.  We would pumping overtime.  We could build the country with the cheapest, most moral, ethical, environmental current energy in the world.   Sell to the world, make money pump that money into the future new energy ideas.  Also make Canadian energy cheaper for Canadians.  Many on this board want to build new system in Canada or get new ones. This would make Canadian manufacturing more cost effective. etc etc.  I could go on on...but I am a minority of one.
Click to expand...

I think a lot of people on all sides of the political spectrum would agree but we're stuck with a lot of mediocrity in the immediate future of this country in that department. We aren't getting rid of JT's brand of "green" politics anytime soon, we all know where he stands and it's not even remotely with the plan you're proposing. We didn't vote him out last time, and he's proven to be extremely hard to get rid of and willing to do basically anything to stick around. I guess we'll see in 2025.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Spencer100 said:


> Like I say, fine down with America.  Which do you want?  Medicare and be in the US camp or Neutral and here is the bill....OK then no Medicare.  Choose.   (Yes even with number one we can still be critical of the US just not the crazy Anti American I see at times.)


Medicare is Canada's official religion. It is what makes us different, well at least in our own minds. I love suggesting to these idiots that we should adopt the Malaysian model and they make excuses not to, because they can't stomach the fact that a "developing nation" has a more efficient model than we do and they are to racist to admit it.


----------



## Spencer100

Humphrey Bogart said:


> But you get my point on this though right?
> 
> I find it super ironic that Canadians will somehow defend American non-adherence to international law when they have screwed us more times than I can count on any number of treaties.  Softwood Lumber anyone?  NAFTA?  Agricultural Subsidies, etc.
> 
> Countries don't have friends, they have interests.
> 
> I personally find the comparisons to 1939 and quoting Churchill to be completely over the top.
> 
> Russia is on the one hand: "completely militarily incompetent" according to some and we would wipe the floor with them.
> 
> Then the same people are also saying "they're the greatest threat to humanity and no negotiation, we must fight to the last Ukrainian!"
> 
> So which is it?
> 
> IMO there will eventually have to be a settlement, what I wrote was merely a proposal.  Feel free to disagree with it but it's probably closer to the likely outcome than the complete collapse of Russia.


OT and became you have me on roll.....

As a Canadian....I was pulling for Trump against my own government and the softwood lumber and the supply management.  Supply management makes food more expensive for Canadians.  In the issues, Trump's ideas were going to be better for Canada.  But because of Anti Americanism and Anti Trump and the way he does things it was not discussed.  One very tiny example "movie screens"...lol really...did you know StrongMDI (Quebec of course) the manufacturer of screens has a special carve out in the free trade agreement?  Yup movie screens have 100% import tax.

Over the years what has the government give away to keep the supply management in place so Canadians can pay more?  Could we have gotten something else like transportation cabotage rights? That would made Canadian truckers super competitive.  etc.

Here is another example.  We should have teamed with Trump about the Mexician auto industry.  We have lost more to Mexico than the US did.  But nope we teamed with Mexico against Trump.  That was dumb.  In the end Trump did more for the industry than Trudeau ....but Shhhh don't tell anyone.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Kirkhill said:


> At times I feel a Maude Barlow vibe coming from you.  Kind of an anti-nationalist nationalist sentiment.   I can't share your abhorrence (if that isn't too strong a word) of all things American.  Nor can I share the Canadian sentiment that proclaims our greatness on the grounds that we aren't American.
> 
> Personally, I've gotten used to feet of clay.


Glad you compared me to an old lady 🤣.  Lots of tough talkers on here, that's for sure 😄.   

As for my political views:

100% Classical Liberalism/Canadian Nationalism.  I would prefer we adopt our own variant of the Monroe Doctrine.  Essentially, stay out of our business and we will stay out of yours.

I'm 100% not Anti-American, most of my family is American and we have been in NA since the mid-1600s on either side of the border.  So to say I don't give a shit about "The Old Country" is an understatement.  My American family are Republicans though 😉.  

I've also got family who has served in just about every Military engagement fought by either Country on either side of our now peaceable border.  WW1, WW2, Korea, Vietnam, Desert Storm, Iraq, Afghanistan.  Name the conflict, we've been there.

I also don't like Nazis very much.  I got some trophies from my relatives that were repossessed from some Nazi scum during our last big war.  They sit beside my own military memorabilia as a reminder.

There seems to be an awful lot of Nazis in both Ukraine and Russia. Might actually be beneficial for fighting to continue so more get sent to Valhalla!  

You'll have to forgive me for not really liking Nazis that much.  I consider them and the Reds to basically be the same.


Spencer100 said:


> If we were smart we would be looking after our interests. But sadly no.  We would be building pipelines and NG terminals.  We would pumping overtime.  We could build the country with the cheapest, most moral, ethical, environmental current energy in the world.   Sell to the world, make money pump that money into the future new energy ideas.  Also make Canadian energy cheaper for Canadians.  Many on this board want to build new system in Canada or get new ones. This would make Canadian manufacturing more cost effective. etc etc.  I could go on on...but I am a minority of one.


Violent agreement from me with all of the above


----------



## Czech_pivo

Spencer100 said:


> I hate anti Americanism from Canadians. (I live in Windsor LOL so I'm different. We all know the real border is London)
> 
> Like I say, fine down with America.  Which do you want?  Medicare and be in the US camp or Neutral and here is the bill....OK then no Medicare.  Choose.   (Yes even with number one we can still be critical of the US just not the crazy Anti American I see at times.)


I agree 100%

Easy to cast shadows and throw rocks at the US - but there is NO country in this world who would be a better neighbour or would be able to provide as much investment or jobs that they have over the last 100yrs to this country.  None - don't kid yourself if you think there is.


----------



## Kirkhill

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Glad you compared me to an old lady 🤣.  Lots of tough talkers on here, that's for sure 😄.
> 
> As for my political views:
> 
> 100% Classical Liberalism/Canadian Nationalism.  I would prefer we adopt our own variant of the Monroe Doctrine.  Essentially, stay out of our business and we will stay out of yours.
> 
> I'm 100% not Anti-American, most of my family is American and we have been in NA since the mid-1600s on either side of the border.  So to say I don't give a shit about "The Old Country" is an understatement.  My American family are Republicans though 😉.
> 
> I've also got family who has served in just about every Military engagement fought by either Country on either side of our now peaceable border.  WW1, WW2, Korea, Vietnam, Desert Storm, Iraq, Afghanistan.  Name the conflict, we've been there.
> 
> I also don't like Nazis very much.  I got some trophies from my relatives that were repossessed from some Nazi scum during our last big war.  They sit beside my own military memorabilia as a reminder.
> 
> There seems to be an awful lot of Nazis in both Ukraine and Russia. Might actually be beneficial for fighting to continue so more get sent to Valhalla!
> 
> You'll have to forgive me for not really liking Nazis that much.  I consider them and the Reds to basically be the same.
> 
> Violent agreement from me with all of the above



It says more about me than you referencing Maude Barlow.   She was a regular feature in my family's discussions.  

We share a similar view of Nazis and Reds - two sides of the same coin.   My difficulty is while I can easily differentiate their authoritarian philosophy I have difficulty identifying individuals.  Brownshirts, blackshirts or redshirts make no odds to me.  

I think we have done this round before but my stake in this fight is both personal - friends and family - and philosophical.   Somebody was going to have to take on the Russians some day and reorganize the board.  Now looks like an opportune moment.


----------



## mariomike

Saw this photo that I found particularly moving. 

It made me think that in all my life I have never smiled when the electricity ( or wator or heat, for that matter ) came on. I just take it for granted. 









						‘Electricity is civilization’: Winter looms over Ukraine battlefront
					

Among those things governments strive to provide are security, opportunity, and minimal comfort. As winter nears, and Russia targets Ukraine’s infrastructure, add to that list heat and light.




					www.csmonitor.com
				




Thinking of the many Ukrainian-Canadians I have known over the years.

*Slava Ukraini*


----------



## Kirkhill

Finland Station?




> Volunteer Russian fighters battling their compatriots in Ukraine can be a vanguard in a future revolution to topple Vladimir Putin, a prominent opposition leader has said.
> 
> Ilya Ponomarev—a member of the Russian parliament from 2007 to 2016 and the only one to vote against the annexation of Crimea in 2014—told _Newsweek_ Putin has set the stage for a "new Russian revolution" with a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
> 
> "In our situation, I think it's a must that we will face a violent protest and an armed protest, I think it would not happen without armed resistance," Ponomarev said.
> 
> 
> An image posted by Freedom of Russia on Telegram. The group said it showed its fighters before a combat exit near Bakhmut, Donetsk in eastern Ukraine in October 2022. "For Russia! For freedom!" the caption said.FREEDOM OF RUSSIA/TELEGRAM
> 
> "I think there is no chance that may happen. That's why we are preparing for this and that's why we're preparing military elements with Russians right now in Ukraine, which are fighting alongside the Ukrainian army on the frontlines...they're ready to go to Russia at the decisive moment."
> 
> Ponomarev—author of _Does Putin Have to Die?: The Story of How Russia Becomes a Democracy after Losing to Ukraine_—lives in Ukraine and served in a unit defending the country during the invasion's early days.











						Russians in Ukraine preparing to help overthrow Putin—opposition leader
					

Former Russian MP Ilya Ponomarev said thousands of Russians fighting in Ukraine are waiting for "the decisive moment."




					www.newsweek.com


----------



## Skysix

Humphrey Bogart said:


> How does it due that with NATO guaranteeing Ukrainian Security and access to the Sea?


Will it though? Nothing forces any NATO member to respond to aggression against a non-member  and how do you propose "NATO" guarantee access to the sea? With Russia retaining the Black Sea as its own 'lake'?

This (temporary) "Peace" (in our time) proposal would have to be FORCED on Ukraine as previous security guarantees from 1993 (when they gave up their nukes to Russia in return for presumed security guarantees from the west, most notably the USA) proved worthless.

Nevermind the ongoing insurgency that an EXTREMELY motivated, inventive and betrayed populace would initiate and maintain with the assistance of the diaspora in Europe, Canada and elsewhere should the central government be neutered and forced to surrender to Russia. To only buy a generation or less of non-open warfare.

We both served, I during the last 7 years of the Cold War, and I also worry about the possibillty of a nuclear exchange dragging my uniformed family members into European theatre combat (and it possibly getting out of control.)

While I believe your intentions are good, I think they are too short sighted and parochially focused on the effects on Canada rather than multigenerational in scope and globally focused.


----------



## Skysix

This needs to be fast-tracked to Ukraine (along with a supply of 30mm chain guns on AA mounts) in quantity. The supply of $1.2m AIM-120D AAMRAM or $381k AIM-9X Sidewinder missiles for NSAMS and other even more expensive SHORAD missile systems will run out far faster than the supply of $20,000 Iranian drones will.









						The Army is fielding a new 'proximity' round to take out incoming drones
					

Blasting drones out of the sky just got a whole lot easier.




					taskandpurpose.com


----------



## OldSolduer

Colin Parkinson said:


> *Medicare is Canada's official religion*. It is what makes us different, well at least in our own minds. I love suggesting to these idiots that we should adopt the Malaysian model and they make excuses not to, because they can't stomach the fact that a "developing nation" has a more efficient model than we do and they are to racist to admit it.


_Hockey has entered the chat...._


----------



## McG

Wonder if we will see any to corroborate this

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1583560074609295360


----------



## SeaKingTacco

McG said:


> Wonder if we will see any to corroborate this
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1583560074609295360


I wonder if it was the Ukrainians…


----------



## McG

It was the boogeyman that got them.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

McG said:


> It was the boogeyman that got them.


If you draw and X/Y axis, where X is "Fuck Around" and Y is "Find Out"... these Iranians ended up in the top right corner.


----------



## SeaKingTacco

rmc_wannabe said:


> If you draw and X/Y axis, where X is "Fuck Around" and Y is "Find Out"... these Iranians ended up in the top right corner.


Is that also like the “play stupid games” “win stupid prizes” Venn diagram?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

SeaKingTacco said:


> Is that also like the “play stupid games” “win stupid prizes” Venn diagram?


Yes. Almost an overlapping correlation.


----------



## Maxman1

McG said:


> It was the boogeyman that got them.


Or maybe it was Baba Yaga, the one you send to kill the boogeyman.


----------



## TacticalTea

rmc_wannabe said:


> If you draw and X/Y axis, where X is "Fuck Around" and Y is "Find Out"... these Iranians ended up in the top right corner.


Illustrated, for the visual types...


----------



## Maxman1

SeaKingTacco said:


> I wonder if it was the Ukrainians…


----------



## Kirkhill

McG said:


> It was the boogeyman that got them.




Witches....

Catchy tune.  Great lyrics.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/y9xvwo


----------



## MilEME09

Interesting development, someone is jamming, or atleast interfering with the Russian strategic bomber net


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1583536147573055488


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> Witches....
> 
> Catchy tune.  Great lyrics.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/y9xvwo


Speaking of PsyOps - classic example. Am assuming it is played on Ukrainian radio stations that can be heard in the occupied areas and intended for collaborators more so than Russians.


----------



## Skysix

MilEME09 said:


> Interesting development, someone is jamming, or atleast interfering with the Russian strategic bomber net
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1583536147573055488


"someone" 😜


----------



## CBH99

I mean if there was ever a time in recent history where the world could put Russia in footing… no really is the time!

Most of the senior leadership in charge of economic, military, resource development, media relations, etc have all had a lot of bad luck tripping on their shoe laces lately. (While directly infront of a 9th story window…what are the odds?)

Most military leadership (land, anyway) has either been killed, or proven themselves incompetent. 


I imagine Putin has realized just how alone he really is these days when close allies are dead, your military leadership are dead or not what he thought they were, and his political rivals start to circle. 

Money does buy loyalty and power, and Putin has a lot of it.  But loyalty and power _do_ have an upper price limit, where money is no longer the primary currency.

His death will leave a power vacuum, and in his place I imagine many candidates for his replacement are busy forging alliances of their own.


----------



## TacticalTea

CBH99 said:


> I mean if there was ever a time in recent history where the world could put Russia in footing… no really is the time!
> 
> Most of the senior leadership in charge of economic, military, resource development, media relations, etc have all had a lot of bad luck tripping on their shoe laces lately. (While directly infront of a 9th story window…what are the odds?)
> 
> Most military leadership (land, anyway) has either been killed, or proven themselves incompetent.
> 
> 
> I imagine Putin has realized just how alone he really is these days when close allies are dead, your military leadership are dead or not what he thought they were, and his political rivals start to circle.
> 
> Money does buy loyalty and power, and Putin has a lot of it.  But loyalty and power _do_ have an upper price limit, where money is no longer the primary currency.
> 
> His death will leave a power vacuum, and in his place I imagine many candidates for his replacement are busy forging alliances of their own.


The security, corporate, and military factions are definitely hard at work trying to gain the upper hand. 

VVP in the middle, attempting to keep them in balance.

A textbook example of Machiavellian theory.

Nothing says that he won't succeed though. Saddam was utterly defeated and stayed on another decade.

The man of the KGB, I suspect, is even more competent at manoeuvring and scheming than the man of Ba'ath.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Looks like Kherson's next on the liberation tick list ...










						Russian authorities urge residents to leave Kherson ‘immediately’
					

Call comes as Ukrainian forces are expected to embark on a campaign to recapture the city in southern Ukraine.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Just a reminder...  This is what the Ukranian Volunteers looked like 8 years ago


----------



## Kirkhill

And, with respect to those helicopter attacks where unguided rockets are launched.... it appears they are about as accurate as a BM-21 Grad rocket attack.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1583889270191726594

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1583889144526163968


----------



## daftandbarmy

Tank-Infantry chaps doing the business


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1583975105465503746


----------



## Furniture

daftandbarmy said:


> Tank-Infantry chaps doing the business
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1583975105465503746


A moving fortress with a big f@$king gun? 

I may be a simple weatherman, but I can see how that would be a force multiplier when combined with competent infantry and artillery support.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Furniture said:


> A moving fortress with a big f@$king gun?
> 
> I may be a simple weatherman, but I can see how that would be a force multiplier when combined with competent infantry and artillery support.



And MICVs...


----------



## Kat Stevens

Skysix said:


> Speaking of PsyOps - classic example. Am assuming it is played on Ukrainian radio stations that can be heard in the occupied areas and intended for collaborators more so than Russians.


Those Ukrainian witches look very SE Asian, don't they? Maybe China is secretly providing Los Espookys support to Ukraine.


----------



## Maxman1

MilEME09 said:


> Interesting development, someone is jamming, or atleast interfering with the Russian strategic bomber net
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1583536147573055488


----------



## SupersonicMax

r/aviation - POV footage of Russian pilot ejecting from his damaged Su-25SM3 jet (War in Ukraine)
					

10,782 votes and 649 comments so far on Reddit




					v.redd.it
				




We truly live in an era when documenting a war is not only easy but first hand information is shared almost instantly!


----------



## brihard

SupersonicMax said:


> r/aviation - POV footage of Russian pilot ejecting from his damaged Su-25SM3 jet (War in Ukraine)
> 
> 
> 10,782 votes and 649 comments so far on Reddit
> 
> 
> 
> 
> v.redd.it
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> We truly live in an era when documenting a war is not only easy but first hand information is shared almost instantly!


Right? Here’s another wild one- Russian convoy runs into advancing Ukrainian armour and basically goes pedal to the floor to try to push through it. Perspective is shot from atop the turret of a Ukrainian tank with the commander unbuttoned and working the machine gun. He has a couple exceptionally close calls.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584011464167202816


----------



## SeaKingTacco

brihard said:


> Right? Here’s another wild one- Russian convoy runs into advancing Ukrainian armour and basically goes pedal to the floor to try to push through it. Perspective is shot from atop the turret of a Ukrainian tank with the commander unbuttoned and working the machine gun. He has a couple exceptionally close calls.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584011464167202816


Was he completely out of both main gun and coax ammo?  How about ramming the truck?


----------



## brihard

SeaKingTacco said:


> Was he completely out of both main gun and coax ammo?  How about ramming the truck?


I dunno. Maybe they had damage? Maybe it happened so fast the gunner didn’t receive the information? Maybe it was so close that in the gunner’s optics it was hard to tell? Looks like they had the sun in their eyes too.

From the last few seconds it looks like the truck towing the gun went off road and stopped or was wrecked. Presumably none of the Russians made it through, but holy shit that must have been tense. That commander had some close calls. Looks like incoming fire struck his ammunition belt and sparked off some of his tracer at one point, necessitating a relief to a new box of rounds.

Absolutely wild.


----------



## Quirky

SupersonicMax said:


> r/aviation - POV footage of Russian pilot ejecting from his damaged Su-25SM3 jet (War in Ukraine)
> 
> 
> 10,782 votes and 649 comments so far on Reddit
> 
> 
> 
> 
> v.redd.it
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> We truly live in an era when documenting a war is not only easy but first hand information is shared almost instantly!



I wonder if the pilot got the proper authority and SPFPs to mount a go-pro to his helmet. The extra weight of the camera could snap his neck during an ejection. Should've sent the proposal to AETE for testing, I hear they are quick to respond to these things.....


----------



## daftandbarmy

brihard said:


> Right? Here’s another wild one- Russian convoy runs into advancing Ukrainian armour and basically goes pedal to the floor to try to push through it. Perspective is shot from atop the turret of a Ukrainian tank with the commander unbuttoned and working the machine gun. He has a couple exceptionally close calls.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584011464167202816



Seems a common theme amongst armoured corps types


----------



## Kirkhill

Kat Stevens said:


> Those Ukrainian witches look very SE Asian, don't they? Maybe China is secretly providing Los Espookys support to Ukraine.



The Muscovites are leaning heavily on the Eastern Military District, in particular the Buryats, to provide Cannon Fodder.  

Buryat women

So are the oriental women in the video Ukrainian witches or Buryat witches?  Or Buryat wives?  And the Blondes are the Ukrainian witches?  Whose magic is stronger?


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Another Russian fighter crashes into a building in Irkutsk. Both crew members killed, no injuries on ground. More  here.

And reports from Russia indicat they are constructing defensive lines along the border near Belgorod and Kursk. More here.


----------



## Kirkhill

More on the Wagnerian Siegfried Line

Those "Dragon's Teeth" look kind of light.



> They're approximately 2.5' or 3' tall and I estimate between 2 and 3 cubic feet of concrete weighing 320lbs (145kg) to 480lbs (218kg).  Since they set rebar hooks in the concrete, 3 guys with paracord could drag them on flat ground without trouble.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1583858954483863553
And I love this


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1583844204052381696


----------



## Retired AF Guy

An update to my post about the SU-30 thundering in:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584139584383774721
Plane went straight in.

Second video is the SU-34 that went down in Yelsk.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584108205822849026
I could be wrong, but it appears that the a/c had its landing gear down.

My apologies for the crewup.


----------



## dapaterson

NATO AWACS out of Germany, flying in Poland.



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/flying-with-nato-awacs-1.6619471


----------



## Retired AF Guy

dapaterson said:


> NATO AWACS out of Germany, flying in Poland.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/flying-with-nato-awacs-1.6619471


According to ADS-B Exchange two NATO AWACS just left Alaska and flying east over northern Canada.






						ADS-B Exchange - track aircraft live
					

ADS-B Exchange - track aircraft live - aircraft flight history




					globe.adsbexchange.com


----------



## brihard

Kirkhill said:


> More on the Wagnerian Siegfried Line
> 
> Those "Dragon's Teeth" look kind of light.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1583858954483863553
> And I love this
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1583844204052381696


As entertaining as it is to make fun of the Cope Cones, realistically this is probably just the initial stages of what is intended to eventually be a formidable obstacle line. Obviously they cannot build it everywhere and instantly. Ukraine will need to have some serious breaching capability on hand if this line is allowed to establish. By no means do I think this is beyond their capabilities, but a real wartime mechanized breaching between two peer enemies (as opposed to GW 1991) isn’t something we’ve seen much of for a long time now.


----------



## Kirkhill

brihard said:


> As entertaining as it is to make fun of the Cope Cones, realistically this is probably just the initial stages of what is intended to eventually be a formidable obstacle line. Obviously they cannot build it everywhere and instantly. Ukraine will need to have some serious breaching capability on hand if this line is allowed to establish. By no means do I think this is beyond their capabilities, but a real wartime mechanized breaching between two peer enemies (as opposed to GW 1991) isn’t something we’ve seen much of for a long time now.



You're probably onto something.  

Perhaps a better analogy than the Siegfried Line is the "Berlin Wall" and the "Iron Curtain".  The difference was that in the 40s nobody was inclined to challenge the entrenchment.  The Soviets had time to keep reinforcing the build.

I don't think the Ukrainians, on either side of the "Dragon's Teeth"  are much inclined to give the Russians, or the Separatists, that kind of time.


----------



## NavyShooter

If they're building a 'wall' then it should be like the 'trumpian' wall - designed not to completely stop an advancing opponent, but rather to channel them.  

A wall will not stop - it will slow, or it will re-direct.  

Assuming it is well placed, then it will redirect into a cauldron...or, if only slowing, will be covered well by fire to attrit anyone attempting to breach the wall.


----------



## SeaKingTacco

Retired AF Guy said:


> Another Russian fighter crashes into a building in Irkutsk. Both crew members killed, no injuries on ground. More  here.
> 
> And reports from Russia indicat they are constructing defensive lines along the border near Belgorod and Kursk. More here.


Good that Russians are building defences between Begorod and Kursk. It wastes resources and keeps them in. Obstacles are a two-way street…


----------



## brihard

NavyShooter said:


> If they're building a 'wall' then it should be like the 'trumpian' wall - designed not to completely stop an advancing opponent, but rather to channel them.
> 
> A wall will not stop - it will slow, or it will re-direct.
> 
> Assuming it is well placed, then it will redirect into a cauldron...or, if only slowing, will be covered well by fire to attrit anyone attempting to breach the wall.


I’m not an obstacologist, but I’ve always understood that fortifications are really just an obstacle that shoots back, and that all obstacles, used soundly, are merry a part of a much larger defensive plan, and mostly serve to shape the enemy’s behaviour by influencing their COA analysis. I mean, obviously if you’re really lucky a stupid enemy might bash themselves against an obstacle/fortification that at most you hoped they would simply try to find an easier way around. But really, obstacles on the large scale should serve to cause the enemy to perceive some routes to be impracticable, and others too costly, in a way that makes their adjusted/remaining COAs more amenable to you frustrating or defeating them. Presumably the Russians hope to shape Ukrainian attacks so as to be able to more easily defeat them with their own fires and manoeuvres. I doubt even they see the line they’re building as something the Ukrainians cannot cross.

I wonder if it also may be intended to have a steadying effect on poorly trained and equipped Russian defenders..?


----------



## daftandbarmy

brihard said:


> As entertaining as it is to make fun of the Cope Cones, realistically this is probably just the initial stages of what is intended to eventually be a formidable obstacle line. Obviously they cannot build it everywhere and instantly. Ukraine will need to have some serious breaching capability on hand if this line is allowed to establish. By no means do I think this is beyond their capabilities, but a real wartime mechanized breaching between two peer enemies (as opposed to GW 1991) isn’t something we’ve seen much of for a long time now.



The allies just bulldozed over the Siegfried Line... literally


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> Okay, I give up, no one in the CF will ever be this good at making trenches, like the kitchen I git, but now a sauna?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1583155451713048582




Nudder Ukrainian Trench


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ybqpl4


Compare that to the Toblerone Line - who is in it for the long haul?


----------



## FJAG

An obstacle not covered by fire is not an obstacle; it is a mild inconvenience.

🍻


----------



## daftandbarmy

Meanwhile, apparently T-34s are on their way to the front:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584211004376113152


----------



## FJAG

daftandbarmy said:


> Meanwhile, apparently T-34s are on their way to the front:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584211004376113152


I think that if you follow that tweet down it shows that picture is of 80 x T34s being returned to Russia by Laos in 2019

🍻


----------



## daftandbarmy

FJAG said:


> I think that if you follow that tweet down it shows that picture is of 80 x T34s being returned to Russia by Laos in 2019
> 
> 🍻



But I want to believe


----------



## McG

NATO’s nuclear powers to Russia: we don’t believe your new BS story so don’t try it as a means of “justifying” a stupider path in Ukraine.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584350830638944258

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584261421327536129

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584200202948612096


----------



## Skysix

I call BS 









						50,000 dolphins died in Black Sea due to use of Russian warships – animal defenders
					

As many as 50,000 dolphins have already died in the Black Sea due to the use of Russian warships, with the marine animals hitting mines. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Kat Stevens

Skysix said:


> I call BS
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 50,000 dolphins died in Black Sea due to use of Russian warships – animal defenders
> 
> 
> As many as 50,000 dolphins have already died in the Black Sea due to the use of Russian warships, with the marine animals hitting mines. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net


Great way to get the Birkenstock Brigade, granola smokers, and bong water tea drinkers on side, though!


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kat Stevens said:


> Great way to get the Birkenstock Brigade, granola smokers, and bong water tea drinkers on side, though!



Because Greta's the secret weapon? How evil


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Skysix said:


> I call BS
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 50,000 dolphins died in Black Sea due to use of Russian warships – animal defenders
> 
> 
> As many as 50,000 dolphins have already died in the Black Sea due to the use of Russian warships, with the marine animals hitting mines. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net


I be surprised if there was even that many in the sea in the first place.


----------



## Blackadder1916

Colin Parkinson said:


> I be surprised if there was even that many in the sea in the first place.



Surprise!

"_The dolphin population in the Black Sea has been rapidly declining over the last hundred years.  It has dropped more than 20 times, from 6 million last century to *today’s 253,000*, according to Ukraine’s Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources_."

But propogandists never let hyperbole (or an extra zero) get in the way of a good accusation.

The original story . . .









						More than 5,000 dolphins die in Black Sea as a result of Russia’s war
					

Russia's war in Ukraine is not only killing civilians but defenseless animals as well.Marine biologists and ecologists from countries in the Black Sea region are sounding the alarm, as dolphins die en masse for the fourth month in a row.Ivan




					kyivindependent.com
				





> More than 5,000 dolphins die in Black Sea as a result of Russia’s war​
> Russia's war in Ukraine is not only killing civilians but defenseless animals as well.
> 
> Marine biologists and ecologists from countries in the Black Sea region are sounding the alarm, as dolphins die en masse for the fourth month in a row.
> 
> Ivan Rusev, an environmental scientist at Ukraine's Tuzly Estuaries National Nature Park, estimates at least 5,000 dolphins have died in the Black Sea between March and July.
> 
> This number is three times higher compared to pre-war figures, according to Rusev.
> 
> Dolphins use echolocation, also known as sonar, to communicate, find food, and navigate. The constant underwater noise caused by submarines of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and their powerful hydrocollators, as well as explosions, is causing dolphins acoustic trauma, paralyzing this vital echolocation system.
> 
> As a result, dolphins are dying in higher numbers as they have trouble finding food and become susceptible to viruses and parasites due to weakened immune systems. As Russian warships use the Black Sea to fire missiles at Ukrainian territory, the decline is expected to continue, with devastating effects on the Black Sea ecosystem.
> 
> If before Russia's all-out invasion on Feb. 24, biologists recorded traces of nets on the bodies of dead dolphins with their fins cut off by fishermen and poachers, now they are found untouched.
> 
> “I have never seen this before. This is something absolutely new and terrifying for scientists,” Rusev told the Kyiv Independent.
> . . .


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584568539108716544


----------



## KevinB

McG said:


> NATO’s nuclear powers to Russia: we don’t believe your new BS story so don’t try it as a means of “justifying” a stupider path in Ukraine.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584350830638944258
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584261421327536129
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584200202948612096











						Russian forces "preparing to work under radioactive contamination" - Moscow
					

Russia's Defence Ministry said on Monday that it had prepared its forces to work in conditions of radioactive contamination, after Moscow accused Ukraine of planning to detonate a "dirty bomb" - something Kyiv has strongly denied.




					www.reuters.com
				




Russia appears to be doing it anyway.








						Минобороны России привело в готовность силы и средства для работы в условиях радиоактивного заражения
					

Подробнее на сайте




					www.kommersant.ru


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Russian forces "preparing to work under radioactive contamination" - Moscow
> 
> 
> Russia's Defence Ministry said on Monday that it had prepared its forces to work in conditions of radioactive contamination, after Moscow accused Ukraine of planning to detonate a "dirty bomb" - something Kyiv has strongly denied.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia appears to be doing it anyway.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Минобороны России привело в готовность силы и средства для работы в условиях радиоактивного заражения
> 
> 
> Подробнее на сайте
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.kommersant.ru


The more and more that Russia talks about this dirty bomb, the harder it becomes to walk back this sort of talk.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> The more and more that Russia talks about this dirty bomb, the harder it becomes to walk back this sort of talk.


They have issued their troops CRBN gear.

 I tend to think they are going to do it at this point.

So I think we should get ready for a world without Russia, and hope that Russia doesn't take a lot of us along with them on their swandive.


----------



## FJAG

Czech_pivo said:


> The more and more that Russia talks about this dirty bomb, the harder it becomes to walk back this sort of talk.


The reports of the evacuation of civilians and withdrawal of military from the Kherson region, if accurate, should also be worrying.

In my days those were considered precursors to potential nuclear strikes.

😳


----------



## dapaterson

See, that's how things have changed.  If the Russians were going to nuke a city, they'd want as many Ukrainians as possible to be there.


----------



## KevinB

dapaterson said:


> See, that's how things have changed.  If the Russians were going to nuke a city, they'd want as many Ukrainians as possible to be there.


Unless they are really trying to sell the false flag.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584532810353999872


----------



## Skysix

FJAG said:


> The reports of the evacuation of civilians and withdrawal of military from the Kherson region, if accurate, should also be worrying.
> 
> In my days those were considered precursors to potential nuclear strikes.
> 
> 😳


"Civilians" = un-uniformed govt. officials, important collaborators, family of higher ups. In civilian vehicles intermingled with military vehicles to attemp to avoid UA attacks


----------



## Skysix

I believe it possible if they have decided they can't win and want to simultaneously give themselves political cover to pull back to Russia and abandon their claims while scorched earthing Ukraine to contribute to their long term goal of elimination as a State.


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> I believe it possible if they have decided they can't win and want to simultaneously give themselves political cover to pull back to Russia and abandon their claims while scorched earthing Ukraine to contribute to their long term goal of elimination as a State.



If that then why would they keep harping on about the prospect?  If it happens now then everyone will assume that it is a Russian effort.  I doubt if the Russians would see Brit nukes in Moscow but they might find NATO troops in Crimea.

Edit: Perhaps Georgia and Azerbaijan as well?


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> If that then why would they keep harping on about the prospect?  If it happens now then everyone will assume that it is a Russian effort.  I doubt if the Russians would see Brit nukes in Moscow but they might find NATO troops in Crimea.
> 
> Edit: Perhaps Georgia and Azerbaijan as well?


Because one needs to view it not from the Western Lens, but that of VVP, and Russians who don't get a lot of outside news, plus all the tinpot dictators of the world.

He can poison most of the Ukrainian breadbasket - screw the world, and claim it was Ukraine that did it.
  Yes he's that sort of sick demented fuckstick.


----------



## Skysix

Just imagine being fed a diet of this from elementary school onwards:


----------



## Skysix

The world needs more dudes like this.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1585271358455484416
Awe shucks


----------



## The Bread Guy

Hmmm - more promises inbound?


> The Honourable Anita Anand, Minister of National Defence, will participate in a panel entitled Working Together to Build Euro-Atlantic Security at the XXVII Congress of Ukrainian Canadians.
> 
> As part of the panel, Minister Anand will deliver a speech which will reinforce Canada’s continued support to Ukraine as it defends itself against Russia’s aggression. Following her remarks, Minister Anand will participate in a moderated discussion and an audience Q&A.
> 
> *Date:* Friday October 28, 2022
> 
> *Time:* 1:00 pm. (Central Daylight Time)
> 
> *Location:* Delta Winnipeg, 350 St Mary Ave, Winnipeg, MB R3C 3J2 ...


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1585271358455484416
> Awe shucks


Aloha snack bar…


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Hmmm - more promises inbound?


Some used CF-18’s


----------



## Skysix

The message “everything goes according to plan” appears when something actually goes wrong.









						How Kremlin propaganda adjusts its playbook amid Russian army’s battlefield failures
					

Blinded by its own propaganda, Russia was not ready for defeat in the war against Ukraine, so it was forced to correct its own rhetoric hastily.  — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Skysix

Crowdsourcing your air defense - don't let the budget bureaucrats know it works!









						Ingenious mobile app helps down first Russian missile in Ukraine
					

In Ukraine, a Russian missile was shot down for the first time with the assistance of the ePPO (e-air defense) mobile application available to all users who are required to register through the Diia national portal of digital government services. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## MilEME09

Skysix said:


> Crowdsourcing your air defense - don't let the budget bureaucrats know it works!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ingenious mobile app helps down first Russian missile in Ukraine
> 
> 
> In Ukraine, a Russian missile was shot down for the first time with the assistance of the ePPO (e-air defense) mobile application available to all users who are required to register through the Diia national portal of digital government services. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net


Can we start doing that?


----------



## NavyShooter




----------



## Kat Stevens

...


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1585360681897164802


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1585483951598338048


----------



## KevinB

And Russian rhetoric continues. 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1585550944229548034


----------



## Halifax Tar

Good, but long, read. 









						Abandoned Russian base holds secrets of retreat in Ukraine
					

When Russian troops fled the Ukrainian town of Balakliia last month, they left behind thousands of documents that show in unprecedented detail the inner workings of the Russian war machine.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> And Russian rhetoric continues.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1585550944229548034


Oh I so wish a Chinese fellow will post something from China saying, 'We'll put 150 million people under rifle and take a walk across Siberia'.


----------



## TacticalTea

Czech_pivo said:


> Oh I so wish a Chinese fellow will post something from China saying, 'We'll put 150 million people under rifle and take a walk across Siberia'.


Look for Chinese commentary on the invasion. Not exactly supportive of Russia. Openly mocking them, in fact.


Also, I've been seeing claims that Russia has "a second frontline to kill or capture its deserters", has any any western intelligence agency confirmed this? 

Sort of statement that could easily be propaganda as it harkens back to the terror of the communist regime and may impact the morale of frontline Russian units / mobniks. Yet it's certainly not out of the question either.


----------



## KevinB

TacticalTea said:


> Look for Chinese commentary on the invasion. Not exactly supportive of Russia. Openly mocking them, in fact.
> 
> 
> Also, I've been seeing claims that Russia has "a second frontline to kill or capture its deserters", has any any western intelligence agency confirmed this?


I’m unaware of any OS postings of that specific aspect. But there have been OS acknowledgement that Rosi and Chechen units are ‘backstopping’ units… 



TacticalTea said:


> Sort of statement that could easily be propaganda as it harkens back to the terror of the communist regime and may impact the morale of frontline Russian units / mobniks. Yet it's certainly not out of the question either.


What Russian for ‘As per SOP…’


----------



## Skysix

Good analysis and some warning notes for US planners









						Six Fatal Mistakes Russia Has Made in Ukraine
					

A Marine and former CIA Intelligence Officer gives us his assessment of the 6 major mistakes the Russians have made in invading Ukraine.




					sofrep.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> I’m unaware of any OS postings of that specific aspect. But there have been OS acknowledgement that Rosi and Chechen units are ‘backstopping’ units…
> 
> 
> What Russian for ‘As per SOP…’



I'm guessing it's not 'Miranda'


----------



## Retired AF Guy

KevinB said:


> I’m unaware of any OS postings of that specific aspect. But there have been OS acknowledgement that Rosi and Chechen units are ‘backstopping’ units…


Ask and yee shall recieve:

* Russia Now Has a Second Frontline Set Up Just to Kill Its Deserters: Intel *​
*The caveat here is that its from Ukrainian sources and could be a part of Ukrainian propaganda. I guess we will have to wait to see if its confirmed by other sources.  *


----------



## TacticalTea

Retired AF Guy said:


> Ask and yee shall recieve:
> 
> *Russia Now Has a Second Frontline Set Up Just to Kill Its Deserters: Intel*​
> *The caveat here is that its from Ukrainian sources and could be a part of Ukrainian propaganda. I guess we will have to wait to see if its confirmed by other sources.  *





TacticalTea said:


> Also, I've been seeing claims that Russia has "a second frontline to kill or capture its deserters", has any any western intelligence agency confirmed this?
> 
> Sort of statement that could easily be propaganda as it harkens back to the terror of the communist regime and may impact the morale of frontline Russian units / mobniks. Yet it's certainly not out of the question either.


... 🤦‍♂️

Brother.


----------



## Skysix

Retired AF Guy said:


> Ask and yee shall recieve:
> 
> *Russia Now Has a Second Frontline Set Up Just to Kill Its Deserters: Intel*​
> *The caveat here is that its from Ukrainian sources and could be a part of Ukrainian propaganda. I guess we will have to wait to see if its confirmed by other sources.  *


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

It's probably true....if our Govt declared war on Michigan, and then started conscripting, because they said we needed more of those coveted  landfill spaces, I'm  sure the "deserter" line would be long.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, via Duffleblog ....








						Putin warns Russia to stop giving weapons to Ukraine
					

They better listen or else.




					www.duffelblog.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Undermanned Sections instead of whole companies.  That might suggest that Vlad's 168 BTGs are now down to 168 reinforced platoons. With a bunch of criminals and disgruntled conscripts being held in place by Chechens and Wagner.




> "Severely depleted" Russian Army companies in the Kherson sector have been fighting with between six and eight men each, when they should be formed of around 100 soldiers, the MOD has said.
> 
> In its daily update, the UK Ministry of Defence added: "In the last six weeks there has been a clear move from Russian ground forces to transition to a long-term, defensive posture on most areas of the front line in Ukraine.



Ukraine war latest: 'Severely undermanned' Russian units at 6pc of normal fighting strength​
28 OCTOBER 2022 • 3:40PM

"Severely depleted" Russian Army companies in the Kherson sector have been fighting with between six and eight men each, when they should be formed of around 100 soldiers, the MOD has said.
In its daily update, the UK Ministry of Defence added: "In the last six weeks there has been a clear move from Russian ground forces to transition to a long-term, defensive posture on most areas of the front line in Ukraine.
"This is likely due to a more realistic assessment that the severely undermanned, poorly trained force in Ukraine is currently only capable of defensive operations.
"Even if Russia succeeds in consolidating long-term defensive lines in Ukraine, its operational design will remain vulnerable.
"To regain the initiative, it will need to regenerate higher quality, mobile forces which are capable of dynamically countering Ukrainian breakthroughs and conducting their own large-scale offensive operations."









						Russia 'running out of ballistic missiles' and no longer targeting Ukrainian bases
					

Russia has exhausted its “core stocks” of Iskander ballistic missiles and is no longer attacking Ukrainian military bases, Ukraine’s air force has said.




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## tomydoom

Kirkhill said:


> Undermanned Sections instead of whole companies.  That might suggest that Vlad's 168 BTGs are now down to 168 reinforced platoons. With a bunch of criminals and disgruntled conscripts being held in place by Chechens and Wagner.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine war latest: 'Severely undermanned' Russian units at 6pc of normal fighting strength​
> 28 OCTOBER 2022 • 3:40PM
> 
> "Severely depleted" Russian Army companies in the Kherson sector have been fighting with between six and eight men each, when they should be formed of around 100 soldiers, the MOD has said.



If they start copying our homework anymore, they will be yelling "militia bullet" at the Ukrainians.


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> Undermanned Sections instead of whole companies.  That might suggest that Vlad's 168 BTGs are now down to 168 reinforced platoons. With a bunch of criminals and disgruntled conscripts being held in place by Chechens and Wagner.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine war latest: 'Severely undermanned' Russian units at 6pc of normal fighting strength​


While there are definitely a lot of severely undermanned BTG's, it's definitely not all.
   The Chechens and Wagner have taken a bunch of hits recently too, so neither of those groups is exactly holding it all together.

The VVS is losing AC like it is going out of style as well, as they try to provide close air support, losing several AC and Helicopters a day for the last little while.   HIMARS/MLRS are clobbering the RuAF Artillery and Logistics so the Artillery cannot reliable support their own troops - leading to the VVS needing to pick up the pace of their air operations - which in an area that is utterly contested airspace isn't exactly a winning idea.









						Despite Modernization Drive, Russia's Air Force Struggles for Superiority in Ukraine - The Moscow Times
					

As the sun set in the Siberian city of Irkutsk on Sunday, an Su-30 Russian military fighter jet nose-dived into a two-story house, exploding on impact and killing its two-man crew — the second time in days that a military jet crashed in Russia.  Last week an Su-34 fighter bomber crashed into an...




					www.themoscowtimes.com
				



  A little light on the VVS casualties - but...


----------



## Skysix

The statistics of the first mobilized conscripts roughly shows how a typical Russian will fare against the motivated Ukrainian army. On average 12 days after mobilization, he dies in Ukraine. 8 days of inprocessing, "equipping" and "training' - then they manage to survive for about 4 days at the front before KIA, WIA or POW.

So the 500,000 so far mobilised really only provided about 66,500 actual additional fighting soldiers per day on the front lines. Of which about 16,500 get removed from the battle daily. About 5000 KIA if the 1 in 3 wounded die ratio is valid and allowing for some captures. Not really sustainable for long even with 100% mobilisation of 16-60 year old males. Assuming Ukraine does not run out of ammo or POW camp space. *









						Life span of a Russian mobilized
					

On September 21, 2022, Putin changed the life of an entire generation of Russian civilians to "before" and "after" mobilization.




					informnapalm.org
				




*Napkin math - not by a statistician so your results may vary


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> Undermanned Sections instead of whole companies.  That might suggest that Vlad's 168 BTGs are now down to 168 reinforced platoons. With a bunch of criminals and disgruntled conscripts being held in place by Chechens and Wagner.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine war latest: 'Severely undermanned' Russian units at 6pc of normal fighting strength​
> 28 OCTOBER 2022 • 3:40PM
> 
> "Severely depleted" Russian Army companies in the Kherson sector have been fighting with between six and eight men each, when they should be formed of around 100 soldiers, the MOD has said.
> In its daily update, the UK Ministry of Defence added: "In the last six weeks there has been a clear move from Russian ground forces to transition to a long-term, defensive posture on most areas of the front line in Ukraine.
> "This is likely due to a more realistic assessment that the severely undermanned, poorly trained force in Ukraine is currently only capable of defensive operations.
> "Even if Russia succeeds in consolidating long-term defensive lines in Ukraine, its operational design will remain vulnerable.
> "To regain the initiative, it will need to regenerate higher quality, mobile forces which are capable of dynamically countering Ukrainian breakthroughs and conducting their own large-scale offensive operations."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia 'running out of ballistic missiles' and no longer targeting Ukrainian bases
> 
> 
> Russia has exhausted its “core stocks” of Iskander ballistic missiles and is no longer attacking Ukrainian military bases, Ukraine’s air force has said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.telegraph.co.uk


Over the last few days I've started to re-read a book I bought/read about 15yrs ago called *"Scorched Earth"* by *Paul Carell *in which he does an excellent job dealing with the time period of July 1943 to June 1944, just before Operation Bagration.

The book covers off Von Manstein's retreat across the Dnieper to the western bank and the German's blowing (for the 2nd time in 3yrs) the massive hydro-electric power station at Zaporozhye and the attempted burning of any/all material, removing all the entire population centres, the burning of all crops and stores and removing of all livestock that might benefit the Soviets as they pressed westward.

The book goes into great detail about each and every single bridgehead that the Soviets forced to the western bank of the Dnieper, bridgeheads that ranged from a few dozen men to one's of Brigade strength, but there was one common theme for each and every one of them.

Quote -_ "It was the same old story: once the Russian had gained a foothold it was difficult to dislodge them. They were past masters at stubborn defence. They would crouch in their firing pit or behind their parapet, firing; they hardly ever gave up until they were looking down the barrel of a German rifle or feeling the point of a bayonet in the back.
The German combat groups sealed off the Russians, They bombarded them with mortars. With artillery and infantry guns they cut off their supplies. Intercepted enemy signals revealed heavy losses.
And after three days also hungar.
But the Russians did not give up."_

This is what I fear the Russians are gearing up for.  They've done this before, right in this same area.


Post Script - Yes, I'm very much aware of who Paul Carell was.


----------



## Skysix

Czech_pivo said:


> Over the last few days I've started to re-read a book I bought/read about 15yrs ago called *"Scorched Earth"* by *Paul Carell *in which he does an excellent job dealing with the time period of July 1943 to June 1944, just before Operation Bagration.
> 
> The book covers off Von Manstein's retreat across the Dnieper to the western bank and the German's blowing (for the 2nd time in 3yrs) the massive hydro-electric power station at Zaporozhye and the attempted burning of any/all material, removing all the entire population centres, the burning of all crops and stores and removing of all livestock that might benefit the Soviets as they pressed westward.
> 
> The book goes into great detail about each and every single bridgehead that the Soviets forced to the western bank of the Dnieper, bridgeheads that ranged from a few dozen men to one's of Brigade strength, but there was one common theme for each and every one of them.
> 
> Quote -_ "It was the same old story: once the Russian had gained a foothold it was difficult to dislodge them. They were past masters at stubborn defence. They would crouch in their firing pit or behind their parapet, firing; they hardly ever gave up until they were looking down the barrel of a German rifle or feeling the point of a bayonet in the back.
> The German combat groups sealed off the Russians, They bombarded them with mortars. With artillery and infantry guns they cut off their supplies. Intercepted enemy signals revealed heavy losses.
> And after three days also hungar.
> But the Russians did not give up."_
> 
> This is what I fear the Russians are gearing up for.  They've done this before, right in this same area.


Best way to capture Kherson may well be old school seige tactics. Cut off all supply delivery/escape by artillery and missiles and wait them out. Urban combat will cause extremely heavy casualties given the retention of hardened and experienced troops with a decent amount of cannon fodder to soak up UA bullets and the time they have had to mine / booby trap the entire city & create kill zones / channeling obstacles etc. Let alone sewer system and building size IED's.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Czech_pivo said:


> Over the last few days I've started to re-read a book I bought/read about 15yrs ago called *"Scorched Earth"* by *Paul Carell *in which he does an excellent job dealing with the time period of July 1943 to June 1944, just before Operation Bagration.
> 
> The book covers off Von Manstein's retreat across the Dnieper to the western bank and the German's blowing (for the 2nd time in 3yrs) the massive hydro-electric power station at Zaporozhye and the attempted burning of any/all material, removing all the entire population centres, the burning of all crops and stores and removing of all livestock that might benefit the Soviets as they pressed westward.
> 
> The book goes into great detail about each and every single bridgehead that the Soviets forced to the western bank of the Dnieper, bridgeheads that ranged from a few dozen men to one's of Brigade strength, but there was one common theme for each and every one of them.
> 
> Quote -_ "It was the same old story: once the Russian had gained a foothold it was difficult to dislodge them. They were past masters at stubborn defence. They would crouch in their firing pit or behind their parapet, firing; they hardly ever gave up until they were looking down the barrel of a German rifle or feeling the point of a bayonet in the back.
> The German combat groups sealed off the Russians, They bombarded them with mortars. With artillery and infantry guns they cut off their supplies. Intercepted enemy signals revealed heavy losses.
> And after three days also hungar.
> But the Russians did not give up."_
> 
> This is what I fear the Russians are gearing up for.  They've done this before, right in this same area.
> 
> 
> Post Script - Yes, I'm very much aware of who Paul Carell was.


A lot of those "Russians" were the same stock as the current Ukrainians, so it's likley that same attitude is within the Ukrainian army.


----------



## Kirkhill

Czech_pivo said:


> Over the last few days I've started to re-read a book I bought/read about 15yrs ago called *"Scorched Earth"* by *Paul Carell *in which he does an excellent job dealing with the time period of July 1943 to June 1944, just before Operation Bagration.
> 
> The book covers off Von Manstein's retreat across the Dnieper to the western bank and the German's blowing (for the 2nd time in 3yrs) the massive hydro-electric power station at Zaporozhye and the attempted burning of any/all material, removing all the entire population centres, the burning of all crops and stores and removing of all livestock that might benefit the Soviets as they pressed westward.
> 
> The book goes into great detail about each and every single bridgehead that the Soviets forced to the western bank of the Dnieper, bridgeheads that ranged from a few dozen men to one's of Brigade strength, but there was one common theme for each and every one of them.
> 
> Quote -_ "It was the same old story: once the Russian had gained a foothold it was difficult to dislodge them. They were past masters at stubborn defence. They would crouch in their firing pit or behind their parapet, firing; they hardly ever gave up until they were looking down the barrel of a German rifle or feeling the point of a bayonet in the back.
> The German combat groups sealed off the Russians, They bombarded them with mortars. With artillery and infantry guns they cut off their supplies. Intercepted enemy signals revealed heavy losses.
> And after three days also hungar.
> But the Russians did not give up."_
> 
> This is what I fear the Russians are gearing up for.  They've done this before, right in this same area.
> 
> 
> Post Script - Yes, I'm very much aware of who Paul Carell was.



The question is:  "Are these old school Russians?"


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> The question is:  "Are these old school Russians?"


If they come from the outer reaches of the provinces, than I believe so.


----------



## GK .Dundas

Czech_pivo said:


> If they come from the outer reaches of the provinces, than I believe so.


Oh.... you mean like west of Thunder Bay?


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> If they come from the outer reaches of the provinces, than I believe so.


Who honestly have little interest in Putins war, and are being called up in significantly larger numbers than White Russians. 
    A fact that isn’t lost on them either…


----------



## Skysix

This Russian woman sent an open internet letter to the people of Donbas in 2014 before the invasion. The level of accuracy and insight is amazing


----------



## Skysix

Economic impact analysis on Russia by well respected Russian economist


----------



## Skysix

I can't decide if this is an interrogation or a PsyOp for a Jr Officer prior to a prisoner exchange. Or both. Either way  he obviously is trying to maintain his frame of reference (and losing) and not give up militarily relevant information (and not doing badly in the large sense but lots of small useful details). Long but interesting.


----------



## Halifax Tar

I'm hearing the UKR has hit the Black Sea Fleet 









						'Massive' drone attack on Black Sea Fleet - Russia - BBC News
					

Russia also accuses the UK of helping Ukrainians in their attacks - a claim the UK dismisses as "false".




					www.bbc.com


----------



## MilEME09

Halifax Tar said:


> I'm hearing the UKR has hit the Black Sea Fleet
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 'Massive' drone attack on Black Sea Fleet - Russia - BBC News
> 
> 
> Russia also accuses the UK of helping Ukrainians in their attacks - a claim the UK dismisses as "false".
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com


Here's some of the video, they got right up into the Harbour and Russia didn't know. Damage unknown but some initially reports say 4 ships have been damaged including 1 mine sweeper, 1 frigate and a landing ship


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1586392473127059459


----------



## Halifax Tar

MilEME09 said:


> Here's some of the video, they got right up into the Harbour and Russia didn't know. Damage unknown but some initially reports say 4 ships have been damaged including 1 mine sweeper, 1 frigate and a landing ship
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1586392473127059459



There are some lessons learned here somewhere...


----------



## Kirkhill

Halifax Tar said:


> There are some lessons learned here somewhere...



A Taranto level effort?









						Battle of Taranto - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## MilEME09

Halifax Tar said:


> There are some lessons learned here somewhere...


Russia is bad at training dolphins to protect Harbours?


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> Russia is bad at training dolphins to protect Harbours?


They haven't got the upgrade


----------



## TacticalTea

Halifax Tar said:


> There are some lessons learned here somewhere...


Identified. Learned is another ball game.


----------



## daftandbarmy

TacticalTea said:


> Identified. Learned is another ball game.



CAF DOMOPS enters the chat:


The Department of National Defence’s vision in Strong, Secured, Engaged: Canada’s Defence Policy is of fundamental importance to the Canadian Government’s contribution to the defence of Canada, North America, and its commitment to international engagements. However, in the past decade, the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) have been affected by an increasing amount of additional tasks. More importantly, unexpected domestic operational deployments have had significant impacts on the routine business of defence personnel management. This study recognizes that the CAF’s primary mission is the defence of Canada and the support of Canadian values and interests. However, it distinguishes that the phenomenon of the Canadian military being the “first option” of government recourse and domestic crisis mitigation, is resulting in the CAF losing its overall operational effectiveness against the evolving pan-domain threats to both Canada and the international community.



			https://www.cfc.forces.gc.ca/259/290/23/286/Rock.pdf


----------



## Skysix

BLUF: The Ukrainians should erect a statue to ret. Army Gen. Mark Hertling when Putin's genocidal war against Ukraine is over (for his role in promoting the creation of a Ukrainian NCO corps and thus a modern Ukrainian Army)









						Russian Army's Quiet Fatal Flaw: No Sergeants
					

"Maybe it's a peculiarly American trait, but our NCOs are taught to innovate when the battle plan inevitably goes awry."




					www.military.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

Go Canada!!









						Russia alleges Canadian-made parts in drones targeting ships
					

Russian military says it ‘conducted an examination of Canadian-made navigation modules’ found in the shot-down drones.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## Kat Stevens

daftandbarmy said:


> Go Canada!!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia alleges Canadian-made parts in drones targeting ships
> 
> 
> Russian military says it ‘conducted an examination of Canadian-made navigation modules’ found in the shot-down drones.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.aljazeera.com


Yeah, we made the thing that holds the oil that oils the spring that drives the thingamabob that makes the motor turn. Real Auschwitz level war crime there.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Halifax Tar said:


> I'm hearing the UKR has hit the Black Sea Fleet
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 'Massive' drone attack on Black Sea Fleet - Russia - BBC News
> 
> 
> Russia also accuses the UK of helping Ukrainians in their attacks - a claim the UK dismisses as "false".
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com


Aaaaaaaand for every action ....








						Russia halts participation in Ukraine grain agreement
					

Russia moves to pull out of UN-brokered deal after it says Ukraine carried out a drone attack on its fleet in Crimea.




					www.aljazeera.com
				











						Live: UN, Turkey and Ukraine agree to unblock 14 grain ships under grain deal
					

The United Nations, Turkey and Ukraine reached an agreement on Sunday to unblock 14 grain ships in Turkish waters on Monday, a day after Russia announced the suspension of its participation in the agreement…




					www.france24.com
				











						U.N. chief delays travel to try to bring Russia back into grain deal
					

Antonio Guterres was trying to revive the agreement, which aims to ease a global food crisis. President Biden said the suspension would increase starvation, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Russia was "weaponizing food."




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson

The UN should offer to have grain ships leaving Russian and Ukrainian ports to be escorted by warships from non-aligned nations


----------



## Skysix

Colin Parkinson said:


> The UN should offer to have grain ships leaving Russian and Ukrainian ports to be escorted by warships from non-aligned nations


Like who??? Name a non aligned nation with a blue water navy capable of that task.


----------



## KevinB

Skysix said:


> Like who??? Name a non aligned nation with a blue water navy capable of that task.


Australia


----------



## suffolkowner

I feel like India or China would work too even Pakistan


----------



## YZT580

suffolkowner said:


> I feel like India or China would work too even Pakistan


who will check them for inbound cargo?


----------



## Skysix

KevinB said:


> Australia


Aligned. 5 Eyes (thus allied to UK, US, Canada and NZ) and ASEAN


----------



## Skysix

YZT580 said:


> who will check them for inbound cargo?


Pakistan has a blue water navy capable of expeditionary actions??


----------



## Skysix

YZT580 said:


> who will check them for inbound cargo?


Pakistan has a blue water navy capable of expeditionary actions?

Would China be viewed as unaligned by the "liberal democracies"/ the west?

India possibly


----------



## Skysix

Interesting.









						Inside a US military cyber team’s defence of Ukraine
					

A little-known US team that hunts global adversaries has helped protect Ukraine from cyber attacks.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## Maxman1

Halifax Tar said:


> There are some lessons learned here somewhere...



There were lessons that could have been learned from the Fritz X flying bomb attacks.


----------



## Maxman1

Skysix said:


> Like who??? Name a non aligned nation with a blue water navy capable of that task.



How about Singapore?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Stand to...

Norway will raise its military alert level over Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the country's prime minister announced on Monday.

Norwegian Prime Minister *Jonas Gahr Støre* said "the military will as of tomorrow raise its preparedness", adding the country was facing "the most serious security policy situation in decades.”

But Støre maintained no direct threat against Norway, a NATO member sharing a border with Russia in the Arctic, had been detected.

"We have no reason today to believe that Russia wants to drag Norway or any other country directly into the war, but the war in Ukraine makes it necessary for all NATO countries to be more on their guard," he said during a press conference on Monday. 

According to the Norwegian Defense Minister, *Bjørn Arild Gram*, raising the military alert level will mean taking corresponding measures in logistics, communications and security.









						Norway raises military alert level after suspicious drone sightings
					

Norway heightened its military alert level on Monday, saying the country was facing the "most serious" security situation in decades.




					www.euronews.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

Remember in basic training where they tell you to 'keep five yards'.... 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1586976943429271559


----------



## NavyShooter

"MARKERS, OPEN TO SPOT DISTANCE......QUICK.....MARCH"

Or...just...open fire to open them to spot distance?


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> Remember in basic training where they tell you to 'keep five yards'....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1586976943429271559



What gets me about all these videos is the number of first shot kills that are being acheived - and they are not all from UAVs.

They seem to be claiming similar precision with mortars and with rockets.   Ballistic computers and UAVs in combination?



> Sneaking up on the enemy,* it doesn’t take Pawel and his team of artillery men more than two attempts to destroy a Russian target.*
> Capable of striking from range, his three-man unit has rocked makeshift headquarters and ammunition dumps belonging to Moscow’s forces all across the Kherson front line.
> 
> But they are not equipped with super-accurate Himars rocket launchers or the like.
> 
> Instead, Pawel and his comrades unleash their deadly barrages from a pick-up truck fitted with a BM-21 Grad, a multi-launch rocket system – just one of the weapons helping Ukrainian forces secure parity in firepower against the Russians.
> 
> "This piece of equipment is far more useful when you're located just a few kilometres from the enemy," he told the Telegraph.
> "Bringing larger Grads, Himars or other rocket launchers is dangerous because you can be spotted quite quickly.
> 
> "With these trucks, you're in and out quickly with no need to lose the big launchers, because even before you've fired the enemy has often spotted you with binoculars and can take you out."
> 
> *Capable of firing from a range of 6.2 miles, Pawel explains the most experienced artillery men can strike within a 16ft to 33ft radius of their target.
> 
> Each firing team consists of a driver, who also loads the rocket, a surveillance drone operator and a targeteer* to position the launchers.
> Pawel, a driver, said his team on one occasion had crept as close as 1.2 miles to enemy troops before unleashing an artillery barrage.



Or, to put it another way, "Is there an app for that?"


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> What gets me about all these videos is the number of first shot kills that are being acheived - and they are not all from UAVs.


That is easy - don't put bad videos out there...



Kirkhill said:


> They seem to be claiming similar precision with mortars and with rockets.   Ballistic computers and UAVs in combination?
> 
> 
> 
> Or, to put it another way, "Is there an app for that?"


Don't discount the experience that many have learned the hard way by hand as well.
  Computers only do so much...


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> That is easy - don't put bad videos out there...



Chuckle chuckle.

When looking at these images I am particularly interested in finding prior impacts --- and not finding them.

Some places look like Vimy Ridge with all the overlapping impacts.   But much of what comes up on screen - whether soldiers or tanks - doesn't show much evidence of many misses if any at all.



KevinB said:


> Don't discount the experience that many have learned the hard way by hand as well.
> Computers only do so much...



Agreed that the gunners are getting lots of practice and likely to be able to do pretty good with guesstimating but I am not discounting the Ukrainians ability to leverage available technology as they have in assigning missions and in air defence.


----------



## KevinB

That is not going to buff out...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587124939928309761


----------



## SeaKingTacco

That helicopter actually flew for a surprisingly long time after getting hit.


----------



## KevinB

SeaKingTacco said:


> That helicopter actually flew for a surprisingly long time after getting hit.


Indeed, I was fairly surprised that the pilot(s) remained in control for so long given the fire and smoke that was evident.


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> Indeed, I was fairly surprised that the pilot(s) remained in control for so long given the fire and smoke that was evident.


Clearly forgot the part of flight school to put it the f down…


----------



## OldSolduer

SeaKingTacco said:


> That helicopter actually flew for a surprisingly long time after getting hit.


Do the Russkies build them tough or was that an anomaly?


----------



## Good2Golf

OldSolduer said:


> Do the Russkies build them tough or was that an anomaly?


They call it ‘The Tractor’…


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Grain convoy on the move

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587090567191830531


----------



## KevinB

Colin Parkinson said:


> Grain convoy on the move
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587090567191830531


Russia hit one of the civilian tugs too.


----------



## KevinB

More careless smoking in Belgorod 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587171776622198785


----------



## daftandbarmy

Varus, Varus, bring me back my legions​​12,000 Russian Troops Were Supposed To Defend Kaliningrad. Then They Went To Ukraine To Die.​Six years ago, the Russian navy formed a new army corps whose job it would be to defend Kaliningrad, Russia’s geographically separate outpost on the Baltic Sea between Poland and Lithuania.

This year, when the war in Ukraine began to go badly for Russia, the Kremlin yanked the 11th Army Corps from Kaliningrad and sent it into Ukraine. Where the Ukrainian army quickly destroyed it.

The formation, deployment and destruction of the 11th Army Corps tell a story that’s bigger than the tragic tale of Russia’s war in Ukraine. The corps, sandwiched between two NATO countries along a strategic sea, was supposed to give Russian forces an advantage in a global war.

Instead, it became cannon fodder for a Ukrainian army that, on paper, was weaker than the Russian army was. Now Kaliningrad is all but defenseless, and the threat the oblast’s troops once posed to NATO … has evaporated.

The 11th Army Corps isn’t really a new formation. It’s a new grouping of existing formations under a single headquarters that itself answers to the Russian navy’s Baltic Fleet. The corps oversees a motorized division, a separate motorized regiment, artillery, rockets, air-defense troops and supporting units.

Before Russia widened its war in Ukraine starting in late February, there were no fewer than 12,000 Russian troops in Kaliningrad with around 100 T-72 tanks, a couple hundred BTR fighting vehicles, Msta-S howitzers and BM-27 and BM-30 rocket-launchers. The 11th Army Corps oversaw most of these forces.

Looming on the western border of Lithuania, one of the weakest NATO member states, the 11th Army Corps was the anvil for a possible Russian invasion of the former Soviet republics Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. The hammer was the 18,000-strong ground force in western Russia on the eastern border of the Baltic states.

NATO warily eyed the Kaliningrad buildup. “Kaliningrad certainly, historically, has been a place where we've been very attentive to the dynamics and the delicate regional situation,” a U.S. defense official told reporters in June.

Those dynamics radically changed after February. The Kremlin committed 80% of its ground forces to a wider invasion of Ukraine—and promptly lost many of them in a doomed bid to capture Kyiv.

Strung out along the roads leading to the capital, the poorly led, under-supplied Russian battalions, brigades and divisions were vulnerable to Ukraine’s artillery, drones and infantry teams hauling precision-guided anti-tank missiles.

After just a month of bitter fighting, the Russians retreated from Kyiv. Estimates vary, but it’s possible they suffered 50,000 killed and wounded by the time the front lines stabilized in May. The Russians at the time held the strategic port of Kherson in southern Ukraine and were on the outskirts of the free city of Kharkiv, 25 miles from the border with Russia in northeastern Ukraine.

But Russian forces were fragile. And getting more fragile as the Ukrainian army—rearmed with American and European artillery and rockets—began plucking at Russian supply lines. Desperate for fresh troops, the Kremlin mobilized the 11th Army Corps, moving it by ship and plane to Belgorod in southern Russia, then into Ukraine near Kharkiv.

Three months of grinding combat sapped the corps’ strength. Reuters got its hands on some of the 11th Army Corps’ paperwork. A spreadsheet dated August 30, right before a major Ukrainian counteroffensive, indicated the corps was at 71% of its full strength. Some battalions, however, were down to just a tenth of their original manpower.

It got worse for the corps. In late August and early September, the Ukrainian armed forces launched twin counteroffensives east of Kharkiv and north of Kherson. The Kharkiv operation, involving a dozen eager Ukrainian brigades, exposed profound weaknesses in the Russian forces in the area, including the 11th Army Corps.

Tens of thousands of Russians fled, surrendered or died in place as Ukrainian troops liberated a thousand square miles of Kharkiv Oblast in a heady two weeks. The 11th Army Corps suffered more than most Russian formations in the region. In late September, the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., described the corps as “severely battered.”

That may have been an understatement. The Ukrainian general staff concluded the corps lost 200 vehicles and _half_ of its troops in the counteroffensive.

It’s possible the 11th Army Corps survives. If so, it almost certainly will require many months to rest, re-equip and induct draftees in order to regain even a fraction of its former strength.

The deployment and subsequent destruction of the 11th Army Corps is a tragedy for the men who suffered and died under its command—and a terrible blow for the Russian war effort in Ukraine.

But the implications extend across Europe. The 11th Army Corps was supposed to defend Kaliningrad and threaten NATO’s eastern front. Now it can do neither.

12,000 Russian Troops Were Supposed To Defend Kaliningrad. Then They Went To Ukraine To Die.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

I am not a gunner, I am a "Artillerists"


----------



## Kirkhill

Follow on video about mortars.  Does it also explain the accurate shooting?  Every tube sees its own target and corrects its own aim.

I can see that with the rockets on the pickup - getting the target in two - one for sighting in and one for the kill - but would that also work for a mortar that has to be bedded in?  How about towed vs SP guns?


----------



## FJAG

Kirkhill said:


> Follow on video about mortars.  Does it also explain the accurate shooting?  Every tube sees its own target and corrects its own aim.
> 
> I can see that with the rockets on the pickup - getting the target in two - one for sighting in and one for the kill - but would that also work for a mortar that has to be bedded in?  How about towed vs SP guns?


You need to treat these videos with a bucket of salt.  Accuracy of indirect fire weapons is influenced by a number of factors. Rounds which are not terminally guided, like GPS or laser guided rounds, will have inherent probable errors that will scatter the fall of shot, especially on the line gun-target but also a little bit laterally. Add to that worn barrels uncorrected for muzzle velocity, inconsistent ramming, varying charge temperatures and no corrections for meteorological conditions can all cause rounds to fall somewhere other than they are intended.

Then there are survey errors in the guns location and in the targets location. Gun location errors are becoming less and less because of GPS systems but fixing direction still requires either an automated orientation system or some guy with a director and a compass to do. At the target end the same applies. Either you have a GPS and a laser rangefinder or you map read the target and throw a round into the air to see where it lands. Correcting the fall of shot takes some skill and/or guesswork unless you have a laser rangefinder and can laze the hit and do a bit of trigonometry to correct it on the target.

Basically we have observers forward not only to find and attack targets but also to provide advice to forward troops about how best to use indirect fire resources available to fulfill their mission. Not to mention keeping our guns advised as where the blue forces are so that we don't strike them in error.

Drones might be able to do the observation and help correct fire but they do diddly squat to advice the supported arm or keep track of our forward elements except in the most superficial way.

The idea of mortar or rocket teams roaming around the countryside with their own drones and hunting down targets is, at best, inefficient and at worst a good way of losing the team or some of your own infantry.

I found the Krab video interesting too. Not being able to see drones while you're firing is indicative of the gun(s) having no ground or air sentries out and no linkage to an air defence net. Taking a gun out of action because you only have one round left on board is indicative of an inadequately functioning ammo train. Guns are vulnerable in two circumstances: when they fire and become visible to radars or acoustics and when they move when they become visible to all manners of surveillance. Guns are at their most efficient when they are in action with lots of ammo (albeit with modern GPS and orientation systems they can be brought into action on the move and on target quite quickly)

I see cheap and small drones as a tremendous advantage that should be in the hands of every FOO det so as to be able to spot and engage targets without exposing themselves is terrific. The fact that we don't yet is just plain stupid. 

The air defence video just makes me plain mad. We got rid of gear better than that because of the Army's short-sightedness.

🍻


----------



## Navy_Pete

Apparently even UKR judges are bad ass; they have 4 supreme court judges, 15 of their staff, 60 lower court judges and 311 of their staff all in the defence force.

Seems like yet another great object lesson why invading someone's home is hard.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-justice-war-russia-1.6635941



> Judges under fire: Defending rule of law with a pen and a gun in Ukraine​Social Sharing​'It's an honour and privilege to protect my country by any means I can,' said Ivan Mishchenko​
> Murray Brewster  · CBC News  · Posted: Nov 01, 2022 4:00 AM ET | Last Updated: 2 hours ago
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ivan Mishchenko, a justice of Ukraine's supreme court. In addition to sitting on the country's high court, he also serves an infantry officer in the Ukrainian military. (Twitter/Ivan Mishchenko)
> 
> 
> It has been a little more than eight months since Ivan Mishchenko swapped his refined black robe and white scarf for camouflage and Kevlar.
> 
> As a judge on Ukraine's supreme court, the full onset of hostilities with Russia also forced him to exchange the sword of justice for an assault rifle.
> 
> Judges, he will readily admit to you, don't usually go to war. But he described the choice facing him and his country as an "existential" one.
> 
> "It's the choice that I had to take," Mishchenko told CBC News in an interview Monday, on the margins of an international justice conference in Ottawa. "It's an honour and privilege to protect my country by any means I can."
> 
> Initially he was a reservist volunteer with the army's territorial battalions, but then became a full-time member of the regular force. Mishchenko, a married father of three, serves as an infantry officer; a lieutenant, with a combat platoon.
> 
> Where once he weighed both sides of an argument, Mishchenko, 40, said he now has a finer appreciation for the notion of justice given the sacrifices he'd witnessed — both among soldiers and civilians.
> 
> "The rule of law is not just words for us. It has some meaning," Mishchenko said. "So, we put something into these words."
> 
> 'They're totally destroyed'​His unit saw action outside of Kyiv, as Russian forces were pushed back last spring, and in the country's northeast where Ukrainian forces liberated vast swaths of territory this summer, including the city of Izium, where there was heavy fighting.
> 
> "A lot of villages, small towns, they exist [only] on the map now," he said. "They're totally destroyed. So … it's just an empty land, with holes from from the bombs, and everything is destroyed and you can see them only on the map."
> 
> As he meets people amid the ruins of formerly occupied territory, he said he tries to assure them that they will rebuild, recognizing that the loved ones they have lost can never be replaced.
> 
> Mishchenko is among four supreme court justices and 15 high court staff who've volunteered for frontline duty.  At the lower court level, there have been 60 judges and 311 staff who have enlisted.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian chief justice Vsevolod Kniaziev addresses the International Organization for Judicial Training conference in Ottawa, on Monday. (The Canadian Press/Sean Kilpatrick)
> The country's chief justice, Vsevolod Kniaziev, spoke about the Ukrainian judges in the occupied territories who have faced persecution, arrest and threats if they do not join the ranks of Russian judges. At least three judges — all of them women — have been killed since last winter — two in a missile attack in Odesa last July, the other was shot by Russian troops as she tried to flee the city of Chernihiv in March.
> 
> There was, Kniaziev said, a brief glimmer of hope two weeks ago when a judge from the occupied city of Mariupol, who was kidnapped from the roadside last March by Russian-backed paramilitary forces, was set free in a prisoner exchange.
> 
> Yulia Matveyeva — a district court judge — was targeted because of her position, he added.
> 
> "I am so proud of my colleague, and thankful to her for her courage, endurance and faithfulness to [her] judge's oath, [which] she demonstrated," Kniaziev said.
> 
> Courts continue to function​Kniaziev told Canada's National Judicial Institute (NJI) conference that the wheels of justice continue to turn in Ukraine, despite heavy fighting in the south and east of the country and in defiance of daily missile rocket attacks, saying more than three million court decisions have been rendered since the onset of major hostilities last February.
> 
> Eighty-five courthouses (11 per cent of the country's total) have been damaged or destroyed in the fighting and 95 appeal courts and local courts are unable to administer justice because of the conditions.
> 
> "Some of them — 75 [of the] premises or judicial institutions suffered damage — broken windows, damaged facades — or buildings, damaged courtrooms," Kniaziev said, adding that some buildings have "no drainage, no electricity, etcetera."
> 
> And then the buildings in the recently liberated area have shown signs of being "looted by Russian troops — stolen computers, servers, video conferencing systems, furniture."
> 
> Ukraine has compensated for the chaos — somewhat — by redrawing the jurisdictional boundaries. It also has to contend with courts and judges trapped on the other side of Russian lines, said Kniaziev.
> 
> Speaking before the conference, alongside Canada's chief justice Richard Wager, Kniaziev delivered a political message, asking Canada to ensure that the money from seized Russian assets is used to help rebuild his country.
> 
> "Ukraine is fighting for democracy, and [has become] an outpost of democratic values, an outpost for protecting the rule of law in Europe and also for Western civilization. Ukraine is fighting for its Euro Atlantic choice and we are paying a high price," Kniaziev said.
> 
> 
> Bob Rae says Ukraine should get all the weapons Canada can find
> NATO chief tries to allay nuclear war fears, says exercise will proceed in face of Russian threats
> "What I would like to ask from Canada and from Canadians is to … adopt a mechanism … like arresting Russian Federation assets and property and make it possible to recover losses in Ukraine, using the assets and the property, which is outside Russia, because we know Russia will not pay anything to restore and to rebuild in Ukraine."
> 
> Canada has frozen approximately $122 million in Russian assets. Despite giving itself the power to "seize and sell off assets" owned by individuals and entities on Canada's sanctions list, the federal government has yet to do so.


----------



## MilEME09

I can't make this up....Russia says it will allow grain through if Ukraine provides safety to the black sea fleet.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587412820181893123


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Sure, they will be very safe as artificial reefs. Or they are allowed safe passage out of the Black sea, never to return.


----------



## KevinB

Well he had a good run...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587345368890707970


----------



## Navy_Pete

KevinB said:


> Well he had a good run...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587345368890707970


Good luck there, using family members to hide assets is a tried and true money laundering method. I don't remember who it was (maybe someone in Putin's family) but their signature was needed to get to hundreds of millions in accounts, so it was a big deal when they 'went on holiday' in Europe and didn't want to come back.


----------



## dapaterson

Let's face it, it's a great time to be a window salesman in Russia.

But soon you'll need a license to have a window, they're just too dangerous.


----------



## RangerRay

KevinB said:


> Well he had a good run...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587345368890707970


So let me get this straight…the owner of the Wagner Group wants “the elite” to pony up their kids for this war?

What’s wrong, is there a shortage of convicts and mentally ill to round up for them?


----------



## childs56

MilEME09 said:


> I can't make this up....Russia says it will allow grain through if Ukraine provides safety to the black sea fleet.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587412820181893123


LOL, hopefully Ukraine sinks the entire fleet before the end of the month. It would be better if russia scuttled the fleet instead, it would save Ukraine some time and resources.


----------



## NavyShooter

Hrm....

If they scuttle the ships, they could re-direct the troops to land duties...and there's a few hundred (a couple of thousand?) troops to fill the front lines up?


----------



## OldSolduer

dapaterson said:


> Let's face it, it's a great time to be a window salesman in Russia.
> 
> But soon you'll need a license to have a window, they're just too dangerous.


I'm reading this and translating it to "Borat speak"

"I have a window from a glass, he must have a window from a glass...."


----------



## Skysix

I am still waiting for the "semi-automomous underwater drones" to be employed from a surface drone that gets them within range. Ie: 'smart' torpedos with a trailing wire antenna and waypointed GPS track to target.

Actually, they could even use a couple of Vietnam era low flying remotely piloted A-1 Skyrsiders (pulled from desert storage) with seadrone and airdrone swarm distraction (given the apparant state of their shipborne radar defenses) to deliver 2 Mk48-Mod7 torpedos each from 15 or so miles away.


----------



## Kirkhill

Interesting tactical construct

40 Pickup trucks with 40 UAVs and 2 Medium Lift support helicopters.









						r/ukraine
					

r/ukraine: HERE УКРАЇНА TAKES CENTER STAGE — The purpose of r/Ukraine is to amplify Ukrainian voices. We are at war, so content is tightly moderated …




					www.reddit.com


----------



## Maxman1

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/IdiotsInCars/comments/yjdqfe

Advancing gloriously in reverse.


----------



## MilEME09

Pretty interesting graphic of donations as a % of doners military budgets


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587663289735122944


----------



## SeaKingTacco

Gee, I wonder why the Baltic states are so generous?


----------



## KevinB

Well looks like it is back on...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587768404374683648


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> I can't make this up....Russia says it will allow grain through if Ukraine provides safety to the black sea fleet.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587412820181893123


Couldn't resist ....


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> Pretty interesting graphic of donations as a % of doners military budgets
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587663289735122944


Mm hm. European militaries exist first and foremost to deter/defeat Russia’s. It makes perfect sense to provide tons of support to a force that is actively destroying Russia’s military capabilities. Russia is shaping up to set its military power back by a decade or two. Great return on investment for Russia’s rivals.

Russia can always opt out of this dynamic by pissing off back across the border.


----------



## The Bread Guy

NavyShooter said:


> If they scuttle the ships, they could re-direct the troops to land duties...and there's a few hundred (a couple of thousand?) troops to fill the front lines up?


FOr a little while, anyway


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> Pretty interesting graphic of donations as a % of doners military budgets
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1587663289735122944




JEF

Latvia 41%
Estonia 37%
Lithuania 16.7%
Norway ~12% ???
UK 6.7%
Denmark 6.2%
Sweden 4.3%
Netherlands 1.4%
Finland 0.8%

Canada 4.1%
US 3.6%
Germany 2.5%
France 0.5%
Italy 0.5%


Bucharest Nine

Latvia 41%
Estonia 37%
Lithuania 16.7%
Poland 15%
Slovakia 9.9%
Czechia 9.4%
Bulgaria 0.4%
Romania 0.1%
Hungary NA

Slovenia 8.5%


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> JEF
> 
> Latvia 41%
> Estonia 37%
> Lithuania 16.7%
> Norway ~12% ???
> UK 6.7%
> Denmark 6.2%
> Sweden 4.3%
> Netherlands 1.4%
> Finland 0.8%
> 
> Canada 4.1%
> US 3.6%
> Germany 2.5%
> France 0.5%
> Italy 0.5%
> 
> 
> Bucharest Nine
> 
> Latvia 41%
> Estonia 37%
> Lithuania 16.7%
> Poland 15%
> Slovakia 9.9%
> Czechia 9.4%
> Bulgaria 0.4%
> Romania 0.1%
> Hungary NA
> 
> Slovenia 8.5%


While a nifty number from an info graphic perspective - one is better counting actual items donated.
   Canada's 4.1% only looks good in comparison to the US 3.6% until you factor the fact that Canada's Defense budget is nothing more than shamefully inadequate.


----------



## Fishbone Jones

It seems that trudeau is giving 500,000 sets of winter environmental field gear to Ukraine. 400,000 from new manufacture and 100,000 from the CAF. It wasn't that long ago we were discussing the complete and total lack of the same for our own troops. My question is, do we have the same gear to outfit our guys now? If not, when? We cannot effectively support Canada, if we don't have the gear to defeat our own weather.

"$15 million worth of winter clothing, including 400,000 pieces of gear such as winter parkas, pants, boots and gloves sourced from Canadian companies as well as an additional 100,000 pieces from the CAF inventory; "








						Gloves and ammunition: Canada sending new aid package to Ukraine
					

As Ukraine seeks to defend against Russia's continued attacks, including recent missile strikes, Canada announced Wednesday that it'll be sending its European ally a new $47-million aid package that includes artillery as well as winter gear such as gloves and parkas.




					www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## KevinB

Already covered.  Old OD clothes from stock.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> While a nifty number from an info graphic perspective - one is better counting actual items donated.
> Canada's 4.1% only looks good in comparison to the US 3.6% until you factor the fact that Canada's Defense budget is nothing more than shamefully inadequate.



So 2% of GDP is less important than the absolute amount?

I'd say, politically, the Trudeau is threading the needle pretty well.

He is donating enough to stay friends with the Ukrainians which is paying dividends with the Ukrainians back here in Canada.  He isn't committing troops so no dead bodies.  He hasn't done a Mac-Pap on the Canadians volunteering for Ukraine.  He is treating them more like the Papal Zouaves of 1864 than Strathcona's Horse.  He is contributing are about the same level as the Swedes and the US.

I'd say he is dodging most bullets pretty well at this point.


----------



## Fishbone Jones

KevinB said:


> Already covered.  Old OD clothes from stock.


Fair Kev. However my question is: Have we corrected the mukluk, mitts and other equipment we were lacking. Is there enough Canadian winter gear to supply a defence force. Awhile ago, the answer was no. I just want to know if those deficits have been addressed. Or are we robbing Peter to pay Paul and leaving our own military without gear to defend ourselves, should need be.


----------



## KevinB

Fishbone Jones said:


> Fair Kev. However my question is: Have we corrected the mukluk, mitts and other equipment we were lacking. Is there enough Canadian winter gear to supply a defence force. Awhile ago, the answer was no. I just want to know if those deficits have been addressed. Or are we robbing Peter to pay Paul and leaving our own military without gear to defend ourselves, should need be.


You will need more than MukLuks if you need to Defend Canada…


----------



## Furniture

KevinB said:


> You will need more than MukLuks if you need to Defend Canada…


Nah... we'll throw mukluks at enemy tanks and aircraft.


----------



## Fishbone Jones

KevinB said:


> You will need more than MukLuks if you need to Defend Canada…


Oh, I wholeheartedly agree Kev. No arguement from me. I want to know if the CAF will be on the hook for our equipment upgrade, through our miniscule, ineffective budget or will the trudeau government replace his largesse? Ultimately, the tax payer is on the hook. However, I would rather my taxes go to equipment, than idiotic social engineering. Or giving our wealth away forever to third world dictators and their programs. We have yet to see a single contract, accounting or progress report from the billions the liberals sent overseas.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

KevinB said:


> You will need more than MukLuks if you need to Defend Canada…


So organic Molotov cocktails using non-petroleum products and made in Quebec with 60% of igniting?


----------



## Fishbone Jones

When I was in, we actually had a class on Molotov cocktails, made them and threw them. We loved throwing fire at the tank target. Gave us some insight into what we might be in for with our own tanks.😏


----------



## KevinB

Fishbone Jones said:


> When I was in, we actually had a class on Molotov cocktails, made them and threw them. We loved throwing fire at the tank target. Gave us some insight into what we might be in for with our own tanks.😏


Did your CO and RSM drink the beer bottles the night before (on Ex) used to make the Molotov’s?


----------



## KevinB

Fishbone Jones said:


> Oh, I wholeheartedly agree Kev. No arguement from me. I want to know if the CAF will be on the hook for our equipment upgrade, through our miniscule, ineffective budget or will the trudeau government replace his largesse? Ultimately, the tax payer is on the hook. However, I would rather my taxes go to equipment, than idiotic social engineering. Or giving our wealth away forever to third world dictators and their programs. We have yet to see a single contract, accounting or progress report from the billions the liberals sent overseas.


The US Army actually has a cell working out of the Embassy in Kyiv for just that.  Apparently the Ukrainian Army is actually doing a fantastic job with the accounting for items.


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> Did your CO and RSM drink the beer bottles the night before (on Ex) used to make the Molotov’s?



I sense a story here....


----------



## KevinB

daftandbarmy said:


> I sense a story here....


How to get relieved of Command of the CAR and have yet another VanDoo picked to replace them…
    They sort of write themselves


----------



## daftandbarmy

Fishbone Jones said:


> It seems that trudeau is giving 500,000 sets of winter environmental field gear to Ukraine. 400,000 from new manufacture and 100,000 from the CAF. It wasn't that long ago we were discussing the complete and total lack of the same for our own troops. My question is, do we have the same gear to outfit our guys now? If not, when? We cannot effectively support Canada, if we don't have the gear to defeat our own weather.
> 
> "$15 million worth of winter clothing, including 400,000 pieces of gear such as winter parkas, pants, boots and gloves sourced from Canadian companies as well as an additional 100,000 pieces from the CAF inventory; "
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Gloves and ammunition: Canada sending new aid package to Ukraine
> 
> 
> As Ukraine seeks to defend against Russia's continued attacks, including recent missile strikes, Canada announced Wednesday that it'll be sending its European ally a new $47-million aid package that includes artillery as well as winter gear such as gloves and parkas.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca



Because inadequately equipping our own troops makes them get cold injuries and keeps them mean?


----------



## Fishbone Jones

KevinB said:


> Did your CO and RSM drink the beer bottles the night before (on Ex) used to make the Molotov’s?


Juice bottles😏


----------



## daftandbarmy

Fishbone Jones said:


> Juice bottles😏



I've seen some cracking injuries result from Snapple bottles being chucked by Pond Life ... perfect for throwing long ranges


----------



## Fishbone Jones

KevinB said:


> Did your CO and RSM drink the beer bottles the night before (on Ex) used to make the Molotov’s?


To add. That's when we were trusted to be adults and drink in the field.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588100657394745344

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588113705807581184


----------



## brihard

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588100657394745344
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588113705807581184


Amazing if this plays out to be accurate. I’m seeing similar accounts of empty (previously?) Russian checkpoints all over the Oblast. If Russia has abandoned the right bank and the city is retaken without a fight, that’s amazing.

With the assumption that there is in fact a Russian withdrawal from the right bank: Concerningly, this would mean someone on the Russian side has both the power and the guts/boldness to make a big call that will NOT go over well but probably makes military sense. This shortens their lines (though also frees up lots of Ukrainian troops) Are we going to see the Russians try to heavily dig in everywhere and freeze the conflict here? Also, it’s telling that, if this was a withdrawal, it appears to have been accomplished without turning into a rout. That’s twice in the Kherson AO.


----------



## TacticalTea

brihard said:


> Are we going to see the Russians try to heavily dig in everywhere and freeze the conflict here?


I find that likely. Expanding novorossiya to the Crimean landbridge has long been an objective of Putin's.

As long as the Ukrainians don't reach the Azov's shores, I think VVP can sell the SMO as a success.

A stagnant conflict might also prevent Ukraine's admission to NATO. Another victory ("neutral" Ukraine).


----------



## KevinB

TacticalTea said:


> I find that likely. Expanding novorossiya to the Crimean landbridge has long been an objective of Putin's.
> 
> As long as the Ukrainians don't reach the Azov's shores, I think VVP can sell the SMO as a success.
> 
> A stagnant conflict might also prevent Ukraine's admission to NATO. Another victory ("neutral" Ukraine).


Ukraine at this point won't accept a stagnant conflict however.


----------



## Skysix




----------



## NavyShooter

Or.

Did they pull out their troops in advance of dropping something dirty?


----------



## Kat Stevens

NavyShooter said:


> Or.
> 
> Did they pull out their troops in advance of dropping something dirty?


There ya go. That’s where my money is going. Wait for full occupation of the city and drop a giant shit ball on it. Max casualties.


----------



## Good2Golf

NavyShooter said:


> Or.
> 
> Did they pull out their troops in advance of dropping something dirty?


And UAF stays back for a bit because why run into a trap, then Russia only has civilians to take out…not that that’s stopped them before.


----------



## brihard

I’m doubtful. Ukr won’t need to concentrate much if they’re holding a defensive line on a river bank with an elevation advantage. A nuke is still just a really big explosion. You need something worth big exploding. Short of a big nuke that takes out the whole city, I doubt Ukr will concentrate sufficiently that a tactical nuke’s effects would be worth unbottling the genie.



KevinB said:


> Ukraine at this point won't accept a stagnant conflict however.



Concur. ‘Stagnant’ just means Russia will be back for more later.

Tangential: at this point, the west will really need to incentivize Ukraine not developing its own nuclear weapons capability. Ukraine is likely a threshold nuclear state, technically capable of developing nuclear weapons relatively quickly. Clearly the Budapest security assurances are pretty worthless. Ukraine will need to reassess what it needs to guarantee its sovereignty. Obviously this would have wider proliferation implications. This may be a lever Ukraine can use to ensure ongoing Western support.


----------



## KevinB

brihard said:


> I’m doubtful. Ukr won’t need to concentrate much if they’re holding a defensive line on a river bank with an elevation advantage. A nuke is still just a really big explosion. You need something worth big exploding. Short of a big nuke that takes out the whole city, I doubt Ukr will concentrate sufficiently that a tactical nuke’s effects would be worth unbottling the genie.


I suspect that E NPP would be the likely location of the Russians to do the dirty.
  They shelled it again today - and honestly I tend to wonder exactly what they expect to get there.


brihard said:


> Concur. ‘Stagnant’ just means Russia will be back for more later.
> 
> Tangential: at this point, the west will really need to incentivize Ukraine not developing its own nuclear weapons capability. Ukraine is likely a threshold nuclear state, technically capable of developing nuclear weapons relatively quickly. Clearly the Budapest security assurances are pretty worthless. Ukraine will need to reassess what it needs to guarantee its sovereignty. Obviously this would have wider proliferation implications. This may be a lever Ukraine can use to ensure ongoing Western support.


Agreed, I suspect that any eventual ceasefire will demand very robust security provisions for the Ukraine - like 2 US Armored Divisions garrisoned near the border.


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> I suspect that E NPP would be the likely location of the Russians to do the dirty.


Yup…MOARDD. 😉

Don’t think it would be a straight up tac nuke.


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> Ukraine at this point won't accept a stagnant conflict however.


But will need all the macroeconomic and military aid it can get to maintain offensive operations and pierce through a hardened Russian frontline.

The West cannot relent. 

@brihard Agreed on both points.

Next offensive: Zaporizhzhian front?


----------



## Dana381

NavyShooter said:


> Or.
> 
> Did they pull out their troops in advance of dropping something dirty?


Dropping something dirty or set off something left behind? They were accusing Ukraine of planning a dirty bomb false flag. This my be it.


----------



## MilEME09

War is hell...I can't even imagine this situation 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588288245250805760


----------



## brihard

TacticalTea said:


> Next offensive: Zaporizhzhian front?



Towards Melitopol would seem to make sense. That puts them in a position to move up the left flank of the Dnipro into the rest of Kherson oblast, and to cut off Crimea.


----------



## Prairie canuck

brihard said:


> Towards Melitopol would seem to make sense. That puts them in a position to move up the left flank of the Dnipro into the rest of Kherson oblast, and to cut off Crimea.


Straight south along the east bank of the Inhulets river to Darivka.


----------



## MilEME09

brihard said:


> Towards Melitopol would seem to make sense. That puts them in a position to move up the left flank of the Dnipro into the rest of Kherson oblast, and to cut off Crimea.


Tokmak before Melitopol, it's the E/W/N/S rail cross road. All rail traffic from Donetsk or Crimea goes through there.


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> Tokmak before Melitopol, it's the E/W/N/S rail cross road. All rail traffic from Donetsk or Crimea goes through there.


Makes sense. I was just speaking to a general axis. I don’t know what the specific objectives would necessarily be. Tokmak would appear to put the whole land bridge into HIMARS range.


----------



## TacticalTea

@brihard My sense as well.  I'd just word it as moving *down* the left *bank *of the Dnipro.


Prairie canuck said:


> Straight south along the east bank of the Inhulets river to Darivka.


Thinking in a post-Kherson-city scenario.


MilEME09 said:


> Tokmak before Melitopol, it's the E/W/N/S rail cross road. All rail traffic from Donetsk or Crimea goes through there.


Inevitably, yes. It's on the way there.

But your highlight does bring to fore why an advance on that front would be so important, in my view. Cutting off South-Kherson's eastern GLOC, forcing it to rely on the already-degraded Crimean bridge would substantially facilitate further advances in that region.

That's before even talking about the opening of the eastern flank on South-Kherson once AFU gets past Melitopol (which might permit southbound crossings from North Kherson across the Dnipro as RU diverts forces), and without mentioning it would also end Russian shenanigans around ZNPP at Enerhodar.

Winter is coming, but this is Southern Ukraine. Winter averages slightly warmer than Toronto.


----------



## brihard

TacticalTea said:


> @brihard My sense as well.  I'd just word it as moving *down* the left *bank *of the Dnipro.
> 
> Thinking in a post-Kherson-city scenario.
> 
> Inevitably, yes. It's on the way there.
> 
> But your highlight does bring to fore why an advance on that front would be so important, in my view. Cutting off South-Kherson's eastern GLOC, forcing it to rely on the already-degraded Crimean bridge would substantially facilitate further advances in that region.
> 
> That's before even talking about the opening of the eastern flank on South-Kherson once AFU gets past Melitopol (which might permit southbound crossings from North Kherson across the Dnipro as RU diverts forces), and without mentioning it would also end Russian shenanigans around ZNPP at Enerhodar.
> 
> Winter is coming, but this is Southern Ukraine. Winter averages slightly warmer than Toronto.


Sorry, I typed ‘flank’ and meant ‘bank’. I understand the left/right downstream orientation.

The side that has more Russians and that will have Russians longer.


----------



## MilEME09

TacticalTea said:


> Winter is coming, but this is Southern Ukraine. Winter averages slightly warmer than Toronto.


Don't forget they kicked Russia out of Kyiv in March which is still winter, Ukraine doesn't mind winter offensives, infant I suspect once mud season is over and the ground hardens they will make a move.


----------



## Howie1

Based on the reports of the Russians possibly leaving in the south, I have a very bad feeling this may be a trap to lure Ukrainian forces into Kherson then blow the Hydro dam at nova flooding the city. This would leave the Nuke plant without cooling which would also create the "Dirty Bomb" scenario the Russians have been pushing. 

Look at the facts and some supposition: 
Russians know they will not hold Kherson it is stretching their horrible lines of Supply.
The Ukrainians are slowly advancing and pounding the Russians with Arty and HIMARS.
They have evacuated most of the civilian population forcefully out of the city.
There is evidence that they have planted explosives on the dam as they do not want another land bridge to the south.
They are building something at the nuke plant under cover. 
They keep pushing the Dirty Bomb scenario. 

Supposition: They may wait until the Ukrainians take Kherson, Wait for favorable wind conditions, then blow the dam. This creates 2 disasters for the Ukrainians to have to deal with.

/takes off my tinfoil hat and puts it back in the box....


----------



## Quirky

NATO obliterating the Russian Military into the Stone Age is not out of the realm of possibilities.


----------



## brihard

Howie1 said:


> Based on the reports of the Russians possibly leaving in the south, I have a very bad feeling this may be a trap to lure Ukrainian forces into Kherson then blow the Hydro dam at nova flooding the city. This would leave the Nuke plant without cooling which would also create the "Dirty Bomb" scenario the Russians have been pushing.
> 
> Look at the facts and some supposition:
> Russians know they will not hold Kherson it is stretching their horrible lines of Supply.
> The Ukrainians are slowly advancing and pounding the Russians with Arty and HIMARS.
> They have evacuated most of the civilian population forcefully out of the city.
> There is evidence that they have planted explosives on the dam as they do not want another land bridge to the south.
> They are building something at the nuke plant under cover.
> They keep pushing the Dirty Bomb scenario.
> 
> Supposition: They may wait until the Ukrainians take Kherson, Wait for favorable wind conditions, then blow the dam. This creates 2 disasters for the Ukrainians to have to deal with.
> 
> /takes off my tinfoil hat and puts it back in the box....


I suspect that the flooding scenario is something Ukraine is prepared for. It would impact south of the river much more than north.

A Russian- instigated radiological event at ZNPP would be foolhardy. I would be surprised if the west has not quietly communicated to Russia that that would trigger actions by Western counties that would be very disadvantageous to Russia. Does that rule it out? No, but Russia are still rational actors, even if they’re sucking at it.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Gerald R. Ford needs to get blooded 

The US is deploying a second aircraft carrier strike group in Europe. The flagship of the group is the super aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78)​In mid-November 2022, a US Navy aircraft carrier strike group led by the world’s most advanced supercarrier and most powerful ship, the Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), will arrive in Great Britain. The location of the group will be Portsmouth (Great Britain) in the English Channel. This is Gerald R. Ford‘s first combat deployment and the first deployment of two carrier strike groups to Europe since the Cold War. The second group, led by the aircraft carrier USS George H. W. Bush (CVN-77), is currently deployed in the Mediterranean.









						The US is deploying a second aircraft carrier strike group in Europe. The flagship of the group is the super aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) • Mezha.Media
					

A US Navy carrier strike group led by the super-carrier Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) will arrive in Great Britain.




					mezha.media


----------



## Czech_pivo

TacticalTea said:


> @brihard My sense as well.  I'd just word it as moving *down* the left *bank *of the Dnipro.
> 
> Thinking in a post-Kherson-city scenario.
> 
> Inevitably, yes. It's on the way there.
> 
> But your highlight does bring to fore why an advance on that front would be so important, in my view. Cutting off South-Kherson's eastern GLOC, forcing it to rely on the already-degraded Crimean bridge would substantially facilitate further advances in that region.
> 
> That's before even talking about the opening of the eastern flank on South-Kherson once AFU gets past Melitopol (which might permit southbound crossings from North Kherson across the Dnipro as RU diverts forces), and without mentioning it would also end Russian shenanigans around ZNPP at Enerhodar.
> 
> Winter is coming, but this is Southern Ukraine. Winter averages slightly warmer than Toronto.


What about attempting to take Donetsk and push for the Russian border. Once there, pivot south and make for the coast, effectively cutting off all Russian troops from Russia except from the damaged land bridge in the Crimea.


----------



## McG

UK MoD now supporting the idea that some Russian depth positions are sited to shoot their own deserters.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588418427944898561


----------



## TacticalTea

Czech_pivo said:


> What about attempting to take Donetsk and push for the Russian border. Once there, pivot south and make for the coast, effectively cutting off all Russian troops from Russia except from the damaged land bridge in the Crimea.


The Donetsk front is the only one that has continued to see (very minor) Russian gains.

I would think if Ukraine could take it outright, it would have done so before 2022. 

Now, the situation is even worst: they've lost the southwards (from Starobilsk) and northwards (from Mariupol) axes on the Donbass.

I suspect the Russians have continued to reinforce the Donbass and to concentrate troops there, as evidenced by their costly but unrelenting onslaught on Bakhmut, as well as Wagner's rhetoric.

That is why I'd be surprised to see the AFU attempt to retake it before the aforementioned cities.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588282311937732609

Not 100% accurate - but it gives a decent idea.


----------



## daftandbarmy

NLAWs at 100 paces...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588493072425443330


----------



## brihard

daftandbarmy said:


> NLAWs at 100 paces...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588493072425443330


I tried and failed to find a gif of Denzel Washington in Training Day yelling “you shot me in the ass!”

But yeah, gutsy shot. And effective.


----------



## Fishbone Jones

That is a lot of armour and guns.

Maybe when it's over we can buy some of their second hand shit and re-equip our own military. That's what we do right? Look to other countries garage sales for our big ticket items?


----------



## suffolkowner

Fishbone Jones said:


> That is a lot of armour and guns.
> 
> Maybe when it's over we can buy some of their second hand shit and re-equip our own military. That's what we do right? Look to other countries garage sales for our big ticket items?


Thats too much to expect from this government


----------



## McG

More tanks for Ukraine.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588637255748427778


----------



## suffolkowner

McG said:


> More tanks for Ukraine.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588637255748427778


thats a curious map of Ukraine with the Donbas coloured separately


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1586662972386156544


----------



## brihard

daftandbarmy said:


> NLAWs at 100 paces...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588493072425443330


Friggin hell… Give this another close watch- he shoots the tank as it approaches the other tank. At ~11-13 seconds, that other tank’s turret moves, and it was facing down in the general direction of the NLAW gunner. That dude stepped out into the arcs of an operational tank and put an NLAW up the other tank’s arse. That’s some shiny medal stuff there.


----------



## KevinB

McG said:


> More tanks for Ukraine.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588637255748427778


Originally disputed territory?


----------



## brihard

KevinB said:


> Originally disputed territory?


Is that the line of actual control prior to the February resumption of invasion?

Edit: But Crimea’s dark blue… Weird.


----------



## KevinB

brihard said:


> Is that the line of actual control prior to the February resumption of invasion?
> 
> Edit: But Crimea’s dark blue… Weird.


Yeah I honestly don't get it -- it is just discolor on the Luhansk & Donetsk  which where the original disputed areas, other than that no idea


----------



## MilEME09

McG said:


> More tanks for Ukraine.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588637255748427778


Notice the refurbishment of Hawk missiles for future draw down announcement. Likely to supply ammo for the Spanish launchers. The US has hundreds of launchers and potentially tens of thousands of missiles in storage for the Hawk system.


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> Notice the refurbishment of Hawk missiles for future draw down announcement. Likely to supply ammo for the Spanish launchers. The US has hundreds of launchers and potentially tens of thousands of missiles in storage for the Hawk system.


----------



## Quirky

KevinB said:


> Yeah I honestly don't get it -- it is just discolor on the Luhansk & Donetsk  which where the original disputed areas, other than that no idea



Someone didn't set the strength correctly in the photoshop paint bucket tool.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

This is a good look at the operations of a Grad unit. @FJAG @Old Sweat


----------



## CBH99

Howie1 said:


> Based on the reports of the Russians possibly leaving in the south, I have a very bad feeling this may be a trap to lure Ukrainian forces into Kherson then blow the Hydro dam at nova flooding the city. This would leave the Nuke plant without cooling which would also create the "Dirty Bomb" scenario the Russians have been pushing.
> 
> Look at the facts and some supposition:
> Russians know they will not hold Kherson it is stretching their horrible lines of Supply.
> The Ukrainians are slowly advancing and pounding the Russians with Arty and HIMARS.
> They have evacuated most of the civilian population forcefully out of the city.
> There is evidence that they have planted explosives on the dam as they do not want another land bridge to the south.
> They are building something at the nuke plant under cover.
> They keep pushing the Dirty Bomb scenario.
> 
> Supposition: They may wait until the Ukrainians take Kherson, Wait for favorable wind conditions, then blow the dam. This creates 2 disasters for the Ukrainians to have to deal with.
> 
> /takes off my tinfoil hat and puts it back in the box....


Given the blatant dishonesty of the Russian media in regards to Ukraine, Putin’s recent self admitted position on the issue, and the way the war is now going - I’d say either one of those scenarios is very possible. 

The Russian media - aka various news outlets spewing various views, some of them even contrary to each other to maintain the illusion of independence from each other, yet all pro-Russian - could quite easily fool a lot of people into believing whatever scenario Moscow wants.  

Why not cause some sort of nuclear catastrophe at the NZPP?  Russian vehicles have already been filmed parked inside the plant, and both workers & soldiers alike have stated the Russians have planted explosives throughout the plant.  What better way to cover a retreat than a full-on nuclear emergency they can also blame on Ukraine. 


Given Russia’s policy on the use of nuclear weapons, Putin considering recently acquired territories as territory of the Russian federation, and Ukraine taking those areas back with force & booting the Russians out?  

It definitely meets the criteria, and it gives the Russians a perfect excuse to retreat without admitting defeat…

“We had no choice but to evacuate our brave service members, as the Ukrainian nazi terrorists sabotaged their own territory!”


----------



## MilEME09

On a related note, race for NATO's next secgen is in, and we have a candidate?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588814315867586561


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> On a related note, race for NATO's next secgen is in, and we have a candidate?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588814315867586561


If nothing else, a much better choice than Trudeau.


----------



## Quirky

MilEME09 said:


> On a related note, race for NATO's next secgen is in, and we have a candidate?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588814315867586561



Great, now she can whine in her condescending tone to all of NATO.


----------



## SeaKingTacco

Quirky said:


> Great, now she can whine in her condescending tone to all of NATO.


That is literally the job description of Sec Gen NATO…


----------



## McG

Would Canada listen a little more if a Canadian was the voice of NATO telling Canada that it was underinvesting in defence?


----------



## GR66

MilEME09 said:


> On a related note, race for NATO's next secgen is in, and we have a candidate?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588814315867586561


Interesting.  If Freeland has expressed interest in the position then that suggests that Trudeau is staying on for the next election, otherwise she'd likely be a leading candidate to replace him.

If on the other hand it's primarily a US idea then that either means she has been more forceful and effective behind the scenes on the Ukraine file than we generally give her credit for (and the US thinks she'd be equally effective in the NATO role), or Trudeau IS leaving and the US thinks Freeland would do less damage leading NATO than leading Canada.


----------



## dapaterson

Names do not get floated in public unless there is tacit agreement from the national government and the individual.


----------



## KevinB

dapaterson said:


> Names do not get floated in public unless there is tacit agreement from the national government and the individual.


Except sometimes when we tend to throw some stuff out when the other parties are doing something we don’t like…


----------



## suffolkowner

Im sure Chrystia Freeland would be a good Sec Gen but what have we as Canadians done to deserve it? Shouldnt we get our own house in order first?


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> Im sure Chrystia Freeland would be a good Sec Gen but what have we as Canadians done to deserve it? Shouldnt we get our own house in order first?


Reserve psychology  make us sec Gen so we want to get our house in order to keep it


----------



## brihard

Objectively, with Russian and Ukraine being the pressing issue for NATO now and for the foreseeable future, she’s worth serious consideration. If she weren’t a Liberal cabinet minister and MP, and otherwise had the CV that she does (or say she had the exact same qualms but was from another country with a party affiliation Canadians don’t care about), she would likely be seen as a potentially solid choice. She has a better grasp of the Slavic region and particularly of Ukraine than most people in the west, and she’s been quite involved in this crisis from the start of the invasion.

Her name wouldn’t be out there if it wasn’t being taken seriously, particularly with the Americans allegedly backing her.


----------



## CBH99

GR66 said:


> Interesting.  If Freeland has expressed interest in the position then that suggests that Trudeau is staying on for the next election, otherwise she'd likely be a leading candidate to replace him.
> 
> If on the other hand it's primarily a US idea then that either means she has been more forceful and effective behind the scenes on the Ukraine file than we generally give her credit for (and the US thinks she'd be equally effective in the NATO role), or Trudeau IS leaving and the US thinks Freeland would do less damage leading NATO than leading Canada.


Let’s hope it’s that she’s been more effective than the media has given her credit for.  

I imagine, after watching her in parliament & how she engages with various entities over the last few years…she alone can be _quite_ the driving force.  If she wants something done & is focused on making it happen, there’s a good chance it’ll happen.  

(I imagine the financial/military aid packages were pulled together as quickly as they were in no small part to her pushing stuff through.)


Do I like her as a person?  Hell no.  I genuinely can’t tell if I dislike her more than I dislike Trudeau, or equally.  

Whether I like her or not is irrelevant though.  

She is capable of getting things done, and she does seem to have a focused mind.  (Even if focused on the wrong things, or solutions I don’t agree with.)


My biggest concern would be her honesty.  

Her & Trudeau may as well be the same person when they speak - neither of them answer questions, both constantly deflect the topic off of them, and both have been caught lying red handed.  On the federal government stage here in Canada, neither of them inspire confidence.  


_Compared to some of the other candidates for the NATO job, and with the US preferring her over others, she may actually be a good choice._

(Just hope she works on her presentation skills… constantly looking like you’re wanting a child to feast on doesn’t help the resting b**ch face look…)


----------



## CBH99

brihard said:


> Objectively, with Russian and Ukraine being the pressing issue for NATO now and for the foreseeable future, she’s worth serious consideration. If she weren’t a Liberal cabinet minister and MP, and otherwise had the CV that she does (or say she had the exact same qualms but was from another country with a party affiliation Canadians don’t care about), she would likely be seen as a potentially solid choice. She has a better grasp of the Slavic region and particularly of Ukraine than most people in the west, and she’s been quite involved in this crisis from the start of the invasion.
> 
> Her name wouldn’t be out there if it wasn’t being taken seriously, particularly with the Americans allegedly backing her.


What he said ^


----------



## Fishbone Jones

CBH99 said:


> Let’s hope it’s that she’s been more effective than the media has given her credit for.
> 
> I imagine, after watching her in parliament & how she engages with various entities over the last few years…she alone can be _quite_ the driving force.  If she wants something done & is focused on making it happen, there’s a good chance it’ll happen.
> 
> (I imagine the financial/military aid packages were pulled together as quickly as they were in no small part to her pushing stuff through.)
> 
> 
> Do I like her as a person?  Hell no.  I genuinely can’t tell if I dislike her more than I dislike Trudeau, or equally.
> 
> Whether I like her or not is irrelevant though.
> 
> She is capable of getting things done, and she does seem to have a focused mind.  (Even if focused on the wrong things, or solutions I don’t agree with.)
> 
> 
> My biggest concern would be her honesty.
> 
> Her & Trudeau may as well be the same person when they speak - neither of them answer questions, both constantly deflect the topic off of them, and both have been caught lying red handed.  On the federal government stage here in Canada, neither of them inspire confidence.
> 
> 
> _Compared to some of the other candidates for the NATO job, and with the US preferring her over others, she may actually be a good choice._
> 
> (Just hope she works on her presentation skills… constantly looking like you’re wanting a child to feast on doesn’t help the resting b**ch face look…)


Perhaps you can ask her how she _ got things done _ and used her financial accmen to start the new multi media division at Reuters?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Fishbone Jones said:


> Perhaps you can ask her how she _ got things done _ and used her financial accmen to start the new multi media division at Reuters?




How Chrystia Freeland Hastened Reuters Next's Demise​*The dynamo who left Reuters to run for a seat in Canada's parliament was both the motivating force behind the wire service's ambitious digital revamp and one of the primary reasons it was killed, current and former employees tell BuzzFeed.*









						How Chrystia Freeland Hastened Reuters Next's Demise
					

<b>The dynamo who left Reuters to run for a seat in Canada's parliament was both the motivating force behind the wire service's ambitious digital revamp and one of the primary reasons it was killed, current and former employees tell BuzzFeed.</b>




					www.buzzfeednews.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Sounds like here time in government, "Damm the costs and full speed ahead!!!"


----------



## MilEME09

Bad day for Russia, 500+ Kia on Ukrainian strike on a unit of mobilized troops


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588987413417771008


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> Bad day for Russia, 500+ Kia on Ukrainian strike on a unit of mobilized troops
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588987413417771008


does it seem like theres been more reports of these mass wipeouts since the mobilizations? Almost like Russians dont care about there own


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Which is odd as Russian demographics don't support this mode of defence, unless of course you are only mobilizing in regions full of people that are not desirable and perhaps have to high of a birthrate?


----------



## ueo

McG said:


> Would Canada listen a little more if a Canadian was the voice of NATO telling Canada that it was underinvesting in defence?


Nope!


----------



## Kat Stevens

McG said:


> Would Canada listen a little more if a Canadian was the voice of NATO telling Canada that it was underinvesting in defence?


More likely be one of those "yeah but she's one of ours, we're good" scenarios.


----------



## Remius

Colin Parkinson said:


> Which is odd as Russian demographics don't support this mode of defence, unless of course you are only mobilizing in regions full of people that are not desirable and perhaps have to high of a birthrate?


Nah, Russians never give up remember?  They even have an annual parade.  

I miss our Russian apologists.  But then I think they may have been sent to the front…


----------



## The Bread Guy

Duffleblog again nails it ...








						Russian General celebrates 2 weeks of not dying in Ukraine
					

Pretty solid record.




					www.duffelblog.com
				



Must be staying away from stairwells & open windows


----------



## CBH99

Fishbone Jones said:


> Perhaps you can ask her how she _ got things done _ and used her financial accmen to start the new multi media division at Reuters?


I’d prefer not to, because…

a) not a fan at all 

b) don’t trust her.  She’d probably forget to tell me key steps (I’d end up with extra shit & start worrying I didn’t build the business correctly.  Kinda like when I get IKEA stuff…)

c) I’d rather stab myself in the ear than listen to that nasally, awful voice of hers 

d) it would require me to look at her (while speaking to her) and honestly, not my type. She looks like if Penguin from Batman was born female & chose politics instead of crime.  


I’ll just take the article’s word for it.  

I do have to ask…as the Deputy PM of Canada, and also Finance Minister, how does she have the spare time to do side projects for private businesses?  

(Don’t flame me.  I’m starting to read the article in 3…2…1…)


----------



## brihard

CBH99 said:


> I’d prefer not to, because…
> 
> a) not a fan at all
> 
> b) don’t trust her.  She’d probably forget to tell me key steps (I’d end up with extra shit & start worrying I didn’t build the business correctly.  Kinda like when I get IKEA stuff…)
> 
> c) I’d rather stab myself in the ear than listen to that nasally, awful voice of hers
> 
> d) it would require me to look at her (while speaking to her) and honestly, not my type. She looks like if Penguin from Batman was born female & chose politics instead of crime.
> 
> 
> I’ll just take the article’s word for it.
> 
> I do have to ask…as the Deputy PM of Canada, and also Finance Minister, how does she have the spare time to do side projects for private businesses?
> 
> (Don’t flame me.  I’m starting to read the article in 3…2…1…)


That was before she ran to be an MP. She left a Reuters around the time she was nominated to be the candidate for her riding.


----------



## MilEME09

Update on estimated Russian losses, we xould be at 100k by years end.


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> Update on estimated Russian losses, we xould be at 100k by years end.
> 
> View attachment 74688


still got to take these numbers with a grain of salt but either way this war has been a disaster for Russia as well as Ukraine. I wonder if both will recover from it demographically and economically

for comparison on numbers





						Visual confirmed losses
					

Visual confirmed losses in Russia-Ukraine war 2022



					vizoryx.vercel.app


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> still got to take these numbers with a grain of salt but either way this war has been a disaster for Russia as well as Ukraine. I wonder if both will recover from it demographically and economically
> 
> for comparison on numbers
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Visual confirmed losses
> 
> 
> Visual confirmed losses in Russia-Ukraine war 2022
> 
> 
> 
> vizoryx.vercel.app


Oh for sure but given reports of mass casualty incidents for the Russians are happening daily now, with Russian troops poorly equipment, I suspect their numbers will spike this coming winter.


----------



## brihard

suffolkowner said:


> still got to take these numbers with a grain of salt but either way this war has been a disaster for Russia as well as Ukraine. I wonder if both will recover from it demographically and economically
> 
> for comparison on numbers
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Visual confirmed losses
> 
> 
> Visual confirmed losses in Russia-Ukraine war 2022
> 
> 
> 
> vizoryx.vercel.app


I suspect Ukraine will see a post war baby boom.


----------



## suffolkowner

brihard said:


> I suspect Ukraine will see a post war baby boom.


why do you say that?


----------



## Weinie

suffolkowner said:


> why do you say that?


Power outages?


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> why do you say that?


Million plus members of the Ukrainian defense establishment returning home to their SO? Ukrainian hospitals will have 9 months to get maternity wards back in order


----------



## MilEME09

In good news


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1589350410631860224


----------



## brihard

suffolkowner said:


> why do you say that?



It’s seemed like, in past major conflicts, there’s an almost subconscious human need to built and create and grow after disaster. The country will be rebuilding infrastructure, but humans will be rebuilding lives. They’ll be thinking of loved ones lost, they’ll be thinking of their own close calls and times they almost didn’t come home. I think there will be a lot of Ukrainians whose whole world view will have shifted in terms of what matters and what their priorities are. Seeing how fragile life can be will, I think push many to want to fill their lives with more meaning. For many people that means starting families.


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1589502246487818241


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1589571269363904512


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1589281132826480641


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1589281132826480641


So this one's likely false, first the Poles don't use it, second, the one who started reporting it was a pro-russian telegram channel called Ryber.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> So this one's likely false, first the Poles don't use it, second, the one who started reporting it was a pro-russian telegram channel called Ryber.


No but Poland would be a key player to tying it into the Ukrainian aircraft, they are a fairly key enabler in a lot of transactions to Ukraine.


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> So this one's likely false, first the Poles don't use it, second, the one who started reporting it was a pro-russian telegram channel called Ryber.


I've seen this one reported on the UK Forces Net

Storm Shadow - SCALP - BROACH is used by RAF.

Also if the Czechs and Poles have successfully integrated Warsaw Pact platforms with some NATO missiles then they have made it easier to integrate them all.

Like the Brimstone it is a fire and forget missile programmed prior to launch.  Once launched it is autonomous.


----------



## Weinie

Kirkhill said:


> I've seen this one reported on the UK Forces Net
> 
> Storm Shadow - SCALP - BROACH is used by RAF.
> 
> Also if the Czechs and Poles have successfully integrated Warsaw Pact platforms with some NATO missiles then they have made it easier to integrate them all.
> 
> Like the Brimstone it is a fire and forget missile programmed prior to launch.  Once launched it is autonomous.


Or it could be maskirovka, Russians prepping an offensive action based on a potential/fabricated attack on Crimea


----------



## Eaglelord17

Weinie said:


> Or it could be maskirovka, Russians prepping an offensive action based on a potential/fabricated attack on Crimea


A offensive action with what? Cannon fodder only gets you so far.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588947949727645696


----------



## NavyShooter

That's a....special...rifle that troop is carrying.  

After the RUS forces breaking their nose in Bakhmut for weeks now, have they finally been blunted and beaten back?  Or is it still a back and forth?


----------



## KevinB

NavyShooter said:


> That's a....special...rifle that troop is carrying.


Noticed that didn’t you  


NavyShooter said:


> After the RUS forces breaking their nose in Bakhmut for weeks now, have they finally been blunted and beaten back?  Or is it still a back and forth?


More like water dashed on rocks than back and forth… 
  Ukraine appears to be able to advance in some areas simply as Russian forces have been annihilated in repeated attacks leaving the areas vacant.


----------



## Spencer100

KevinB said:


> Noticed that didn’t you
> 
> More like water dashed on rocks than back and forth…
> Ukraine appears to be able to advance in some areas simply as Russian forces have been annihilated in repeated attacks leaving the areas vacant.


sorry not to versed in rifles....what is it?  All I could make out was folding stock and suppressor?  I think.


----------



## NavyShooter

I'm a gun guy....


----------



## KevinB

NavyShooter said:


> I'm a gun guy....


But wrong  

It’s the father 

Suppressed AKS-74U


----------



## NavyShooter

I stand corrected!


----------



## KevinB

NavyShooter said:


> I stand corrected!




I cheated and had a still of the video to look at .  And a reference gun here to compare too as well.  

I suspect that 9x39 isn’t nearly as common in Ukraine, and most of their subsonic requirements are filled by .300BlackOut systems.


----------



## NavyShooter

Cheater.  

I actually sold my 12(5) AK last year....my reference collection is now somewhat diminished.  I'm down to just one FN.


----------



## Eaglelord17

NavyShooter said:


> Cheater.
> 
> I actually sold my 12(5) AK last year....my reference collection is now somewhat diminished.  I'm down to just one FN.


Its too bad we scrapped all the FNs. I imagine 100k of those doing what they were intended in Ukrainian hands could have made for some bad times for the Russians.


----------



## KevinB

Eaglelord17 said:


> Its too bad we scrapped all the FNs. I imagine 100k of those doing what they were intended in Ukrainian hands could have made for some bad times for the Russians.


The FAL is an archaic system at best. 
   Nearly all small arms engagements in Ukraine has been under 200m.    Don’t let nostalgic feelings color reality.


----------



## NavyShooter

Eaglelord17 said:


> Its too bad we scrapped all the FNs. I imagine 100k of those doing what they were intended in Ukrainian hands could have made for some bad times for the Russians.


A friend of mine heled with the scrapping on some that were in Halifax.

A few (a VERY FEW) were brand new in the packaging.  Still sealed from Canadian Asenals Limited.  Some of these were kept for museum use.  (The number I was quoted was ~600 C1 and C2 rifles kept.)

Most were simply placed in cardboard boxes when they were turned in by units almost 30 years ago.  No preservation was applied to most of those.  These rifles were rusty, and the wood was showing signs of dry rot in many cases.

Some of them appeared to have come in straight from the field after an exercise where they were fired and dragged through the mud.  These rifles were actively decomposing in storage.  

At no point does it seem that anyone in the supply chain thought it would be a good idea to pull the rifles out in rotation, inspect them, preserve them, and properly package them. 

If you have seen photos of the terrible condition Russian AK's that are being foisted upon their recruit mobniks, well, most of our FN's were in that shape or worse.

A damn shame for such a fine rifle.


----------



## ueo

KevinB said:


> The FAL is an archaic system at best.
> Nearly all small arms engagements in Ukraine has been under 200m.    Don’t let nostalgic feelings color reality.


7.62 can cause massive biologic failures at that range, 'member annual quals?


----------



## KevinB

ueo said:


> 7.62 can cause massive biologic failures at that range, 'member annual quals?


M80 ball is actually inferior to 5.56mm for shooting folks at those ranges, other than it does better with intervening medium (cover) 

I have a FAL, I went through basic and recruit with the C1A too, it’s just not what I’d carry into battle willingly. 

If I was carrying a 7.62 NATO sized battle rifle - I’d go with the USASOC 14.5” M110K in 6.5 Creedmore.


----------



## brihard

KevinB said:


> M80 ball is actually inferior to 5.56mm for shooting folks at those ranges, other than it does better with intervening medium (cover)
> 
> I have a FAL, I went through basic and recruit with the C1A too, it’s just not what I’d carry into battle willingly.
> 
> If I was carrying a 7.62 NATO sized battle rifle - I’d go with the USASOC 14.5” M110K in 6.5 Creedmore.


Taking a guess- 7.62 just icepicks through and out, netting less kinetic energy transferred into body tissue, versus 5.56 that tumbles/fragments and dumps most or all energy within, with more secondary cavity?


----------



## NavyShooter

Brihard, that's a good summary.  Reality is a bit more complex.

Here's a simplified version with a bit more detail:

The 7.62 M80 (C-21 and C-21A1 Ball) round is a contiguous body of lead with a copper sheath jacket, and an open base.

The C-77 (SS-109/M-855) ball round is a lead base with steel tip and a copper sheath jacket. 

The C-77 type ball ammo, because it has a 2 piece core, each with a different density, will, when it strikes a dense target at high speed (ie ballistic gelatin or flesh) tend to have those two pieces slow down at different rates - resulting in the copper sheath jacket being torn at the crimp point (called the cannelure - the little row of tiny divots) ending up with 3 major parts of the bullet (lead, steel and jacket) with small/tiny fragments of lead and copper dissipating energy throughout the 'dense target'.

At lower speeds, both C-77 and C-21 type ammo will tend to tumble and 'squish' some of the lead out the open base of the bullet, but staying substantially intact enabling typically deeper penetration, and possibly punching straight through with a smaller permanent wound cavity.

That is - from the perspective of KevinB a terribly oversimplified explanation of terminal ballistics....but one that I think covers the basics without delving into it too deeply.


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> M80 ball is actually inferior to 5.56mm for shooting folks at those ranges, other than it does better with intervening medium (cover)
> 
> I have a FAL, I went through basic and recruit with the C1A too, it’s just not what I’d carry into battle willingly.
> 
> If I was carrying a 7.62 NATO sized battle rifle - I’d go with the USASOC 14.5” M110K in 6.5 Creedmore.


----------



## GK .Dundas

ueo said:


> 7.62 can cause massive biologic failures at that range, 'member annual quals?


Ha! Tell that to the untold generations of permanently deaf rabbits who lived upon ,around and under the St. Charles rifle range. 
Urban legend had it they were either bullet proof or could somehow dodge the considerable  number of rounds sent their way.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Russians collecting barges for whatever purpose near Kherson


----------



## Czech_pivo

Colin Parkinson said:


> Russians collecting barges for whatever purpose near Kherson


To prevent the Ukkie's from crossing over to the  eastern bank when the time comes.


----------



## ueo

GK .Dundas said:


> Ha! Tell that to the untold generations of permanently deaf rabbits who lived upon ,around and under the St. Charles rifle range.
> Urban legend had it they were either bullet proof or could somehow dodge the considerable  number of rounds sent their way.


Or piss poor marksman skills. Pay attention to "lead" etc lessons.


----------



## Kirkhill

23 Hot Takes from 23 Commentators - Highlighted a couple
The article goes into each "Lesson" with a couple of paragraphs.



			https://www.realcleardefense.com/2022/11/08/six_months_twenty-three_lessons_what_the_world_has_learned_863644.html
		



*Lesson for Western diplomacy: Don’t second-guess Ukrainians*​
*Lesson for global diplomacy: Putin’s regime can’t be trusted—and needs to be defeated*
*Lesson for US foreign policy: The United States can no longer rely on strategic ambiguity*​
*Lesson for US national security: Washington must contend with Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran at the same time *​
*Lesson for military operations: Equipment doesn’t win wars. People do.*
*Lesson for military planning: Nimble modern weapons can defeat larger, conventionally armed forces—especially when on the defensive*
*Lesson for deterrence: Troop deployments work better than threats of economic sanctions*
*Lesson for the global economy: The new tools of conflict are economic—and they are powerful*​
*Lesson for economic statecraft: Don’t separate sanctions from longer-term foreign-policy objectives*
*Lesson for economic statecraft: Sanctions work, but they are messy and take time*​
*Lesson for wartime strategic communications: Influence operations are a day-in, day-out job*
*Lesson for hybrid warfare: Don’t ignore the fundamentals ​*
*Lesson for the energy sector: Decades of energy diplomacy can disappear with one brutal invasion*
*Lesson for global intelligence: Russia is not ten feet tall ​*
*Lesson for would-be invaders: You can’t hide preparations for a full-scale invasion*
*Lesson for cybersecurity: The private sector should play a critical military-operational role in cyberspace*
*Lesson for US homeland security: Ignoring the home front is a serious mistake​*
*Lesson for US assistance policy: Invest deeply in key resilient partners*
*Lesson for NATO: The Alliance is a uniquely valuable institution that requires enduring political and financial investment*
*Lesson for Ukraine: There’s no way back for relations with Russia*
*Lesson for China: Today’s Ukraine is not tomorrow’s Taiwan *
*Lesson for Middle East policymakers: America will always do the right thing, but only after exhausting all the alternatives*​
*Lesson for Germany and its allies: Seize this moment for a strategic reversal *


----------



## brihard

Russian command appears to be confirming a general withdrawal from the right bank of the Dnipro in Kherson oblast. This is a significant victory for Ukraine.

A retreat via pontoon bridges and barges is a hairy situation. I’m curious whether there’s a quiet back room deal to let Russia withdraw in good order, or if Ukraine will pressure it. There are tens of thousands of Russians still on the wrong side of the river.


----------



## Weinie

brihard said:


> Russian command appears to be confirming a general withdrawal from the right bank of the Dnipro in Kherson oblast. This is a significant victory for Ukraine.
> 
> A retreat via pontoon bridges and barges is a hairy situation. I’m curious whether there’s a quiet back room deal to let Russia withdraw in good order, or if Ukraine will pressure it. There are tens of thousands of Russians still on the wrong side of the river.


There is a HIMARS solution to that.


----------



## Czech_pivo

brihard said:


> Russian command appears to be confirming a general withdrawal from the right bank of the Dnipro in Kherson oblast. This is a significant victory for Ukraine.
> 
> A retreat via pontoon bridges and barges is a hairy situation. I’m curious whether there’s a quiet back room deal to let Russia withdraw in good order, or if Ukraine will pressure it. There are tens of thousands of Russians still on the wrong side of the river.


Can the Ukkie's trust the Russians in any way, shape or form if they've made any sort of deal with them? I guess it could be, no dirty bomb set off if we can withdraw from the western bank with some semblance of dignity.


----------



## brihard

Czech_pivo said:


> Can the Ukkie's trust the Russians in any way, shape or form if they've made any sort of deal with them? I guess it could be, no dirty bomb set off if we can withdraw from the western bank with some semblance of dignity.


No idea, I don’t pretend to know the behind the scenes here.

It’s potentially a prime opportunity to do some major damage.


----------



## Weinie

brihard said:


> No idea, I don’t pretend to know the behind the scenes here.
> 
> *It’s potentially a prime opportunity to do some major damage.*


Yup. Giddy-up.


----------



## The Bread Guy

brihard said:


> It’s potentially a prime opportunity to do some major damage.


Like some say about Russian troops living by the sword ....


----------



## Spencer100

The Bread Guy said:


> Like some say about Russian troops living by the sword ....


The Putin's Kherson leader won't be making the crossing.  



			Kirill Stremousov Dead: Russia-Appointed Kherson Leader Killed in Crash
		


Why do I always get this feeling watching Putin and the Russians?


----------



## Spencer100

And this

LOL


----------



## Colin Parkinson

brihard said:


> Russian command appears to be confirming a general withdrawal from the right bank of the Dnipro in Kherson oblast. This is a significant victory for Ukraine.
> 
> A retreat via pontoon bridges and barges is a hairy situation. I’m curious whether there’s a quiet back room deal to let Russia withdraw in good order, or if Ukraine will pressure it. There are tens of thousands of Russians still on the wrong side of the river.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590368333727424512


----------



## OldSolduer

Spencer100 said:


> And this
> 
> LOL


With Darth at least you know what the consequences of poor performance is - I guess with Putin as well.


----------



## Spencer100

OldSolduer said:


> With Darth at least you know what the consequences of poor performance is - I guess with Putin as well.


More



			Former Putin Ally Who Helped Russian Leader's Rise to Power Has Died


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590316628176441344


----------



## TacticalTea

Colin Parkinson said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590368333727424512


I like this.

The whole SMO in a nutshell. A political circus for the homefront.


----------



## Kat Stevens

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590316628176441344


I hope there’s a part 2


----------



## Kirkhill

Colin Parkinson said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590368333727424512



It's coming to it when you can no longer tell fact from parody.


----------



## brihard

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590316628176441344


“So, at this point you’re probably wondering how I found myself here…”


----------



## Remius

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590459458039468032


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> It's coming to it when you can no longer tell fact from parody.


----------



## suffolkowner

Operation IRINI seizes illegal cargo - Operation Irini
					

This is the second time IRINI’s seized a cargo in implementation of UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 2292 (2016) in less than three months. One of the European military vessels operating in the Central Mediterranean Sea for Operation IRINI detected the ship on its way to Libya. Upon...




					www.operationirini.eu
				




these look like they could be redirected to Ukraine


----------



## TacticalTea

suffolkowner said:


> Operation IRINI seizes illegal cargo - Operation Irini
> 
> 
> This is the second time IRINI’s seized a cargo in implementation of UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 2292 (2016) in less than three months. One of the European military vessels operating in the Central Mediterranean Sea for Operation IRINI detected the ship on its way to Libya. Upon...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.operationirini.eu
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> these look like they could be redirected to Ukraine


_5. Authorizes all Member States, acting nationally or through regional organizations, to, and decides that *all *such *Member States shall*, upon discovery of items prohibited by paragraph 9 or 10 of resolution 1970, as modified by paragraph 13 of 2009 (2011), paragraphs 9 and 10 of 2095 (2013), and paragraph 8 of resolution 2174 (2014),* seize and dispose* (*such as* through destruction, rendering inoperable, storage or *transferring to a State other than the originating or destination States for disposal*) of such items, further reaffirms its decision that all Member States shall cooperate in such efforts, authorizes Member States, acting nationally or through regional organizations, to collect evidence directly related to the carriage of such items in the course of such inspections, and urges Member States, acting nationally or through regional organizations, to avoid causing harm to the marine environment or to the safety of navigation;_

At first glance, UNSCR 2296 (2016) does not seem to preclude such a diversion - though one might take issue with how important the phrase ''for disposal'' is and what it means exactly - but as it IS a UNSC Resolution, exploiting it for the benefit of Ukraine would almost assuredly be its death knell as Russia might not vote to renew it.

Also, what the hell is that cargo? Not even tarps on the armored vehicles? It's like they're TRYING to get caught...


----------



## dapaterson

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590444392032374784


----------



## CBH99

TacticalTea said:


> _5. Authorizes all Member States, acting nationally or through regional organizations, to, and decides that *all *such *Member States shall*, upon discovery of items prohibited by paragraph 9 or 10 of resolution 1970, as modified by paragraph 13 of 2009 (2011), paragraphs 9 and 10 of 2095 (2013), and paragraph 8 of resolution 2174 (2014),* seize and dispose* (*such as* through destruction, rendering inoperable, storage or *transferring to a State other than the originating or destination States for disposal*) of such items, further reaffirms its decision that all Member States shall cooperate in such efforts, authorizes Member States, acting nationally or through regional organizations, to collect evidence directly related to the carriage of such items in the course of such inspections, and urges Member States, acting nationally or through regional organizations, to avoid causing harm to the marine environment or to the safety of navigation;_
> 
> At first glance, UNSCR 2296 (2016) does not seem to preclude such a diversion - though one might take issue with how important the phrase ''for disposal'' is and what it means exactly - but as it IS a UNSC Resolution, exploiting it for the benefit of Ukraine would almost assuredly be its death knell as Russia might not vote to renew it.
> 
> Also, what the hell is that cargo? Not even tarps on the armored vehicles? It's like they're TRYING to get caught...


Russia might not vote to renew it based on the final destination being Ukraine, if that ended up being the case.  

But whoever those vehicles were going to, aren’t getting them now.  Not that they’ve been intercepted at sea, diverted to port, and the general press informed of a violation, re UNSC

They could sit in a warehouse somewhere for months.  Or years.  Oooorrrrr…I’m use Ukraine would be more than happy to have them.

Seems like their best use now, anyway.


----------



## Czech_pivo

CBH99 said:


> Russia might not vote to renew it based on the final destination being Ukraine, if that ended up being the case.
> 
> But whoever those vehicles were going to, aren’t getting them now.  Not that they’ve been intercepted at sea, diverted to port, and the general press informed of a violation, re UNSC
> 
> They could sit in a warehouse somewhere for months.  Or years.  Oooorrrrr…I’m use Ukraine would be more than happy to have them.
> 
> Seems like their best use now, anyway.


Did the article say what the port of origin was?  Ironic that it was was a Dutch flagged ship and it was a Dutch construction company heavily involved in the construction of the Crimea bridge.....


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Did the article say what the port of origin was?  Ironic that it was was a Dutch flagged ship and it was a Dutch construction company heavily involved in the construction of the Crimea bridge.....


Even more embarrassing when they are Canadian made armored vehicles too...


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Even more embarrassing when they are Canadian made armored vehicles too...


As in way of the Saudi's?


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> As in way of the Saudi's?


Not sure of who the original End User was alleged to be.
   But given they are effectively NIB, they never where intended to go anywhere legit


----------



## Colin Parkinson

KevinB said:


> Even more embarrassing when they are Canadian made armored vehicles too...


Which type are they?


----------



## KevinB

Colin Parkinson said:


> Which type are they?


Based on what I was told this am - INKAS 








						INKAS® Sentry APC (RHD) For Sale - INKAS Armored Vehicles, Bulletproof Cars, Special Purpose Vehicles
					

INKAS® Armored Personnel Carriers (APCs) and Light Armored Patrol Vehicles (LAPVs) are now available in Right-Hand Drive. Built on the powerful skeleton of a heavy-duty Ford® chassis – which is a widely used platform for mid-scale APCs and LAPVs – [...]




					inkasarmored.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, "Dear Mom, It Sucks Out Here" continues ....








						"We have no guns, food, clothes, nothing," local warriors from Pechenga tell their mothers and wives
					

Mobilised men from the far northern Russian border town say they are abandoned along the frontline in Ukraine without food and equipment.




					thebarentsobserver.com


----------



## CBH99

KevinB said:


> Based on what I was told this am - INKAS
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> INKAS® Sentry APC (RHD) For Sale - INKAS Armored Vehicles, Bulletproof Cars, Special Purpose Vehicles
> 
> 
> INKAS® Armored Personnel Carriers (APCs) and Light Armored Patrol Vehicles (LAPVs) are now available in Right-Hand Drive. Built on the powerful skeleton of a heavy-duty Ford® chassis – which is a widely used platform for mid-scale APCs and LAPVs – [...]
> 
> 
> 
> 
> inkasarmored.com


I was under the impression a few dozen of these were actually purchased by the GoC for use by Ukraine.

I remember when the news was announced (a while ago now, fairly early on in the war) that these vehicles were purchased by a Canadian armoured vehicle company as part of an aid package.  

The reason I remember it it’s because people were commenting they had not heard of the company before.

Is there any chance that the vehicles intercepted are the ones announced a while back?


----------



## Czech_pivo

CBH99 said:


> I was under the impression a few dozen of these were actually purchased by the GoC for use by Ukraine.
> 
> I remember when the news was announced (a while ago now, fairly early on in the war) that these vehicles were purchased by a Canadian armoured vehicle company as part of an aid package.
> 
> The reason I remember it it’s because people were commenting they had not heard of the company before.
> 
> Is there any chance that the vehicles intercepted are the ones announced a while back?


I was wondering the same thing but I believe that it was these that GoC purchased and was sending over -  *Roshel Senator APC* - Roshel – Smart Armored Vehicles


----------



## Spencer100

I believe both INKAS and Roshel have a common founding.

INKAS is owned and founded by David Khazanski.  A Canadian/Russian citizen. 






						INKAS - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				





Roshel is founded by Roman Shimonov






						Roshel - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




Roman Shimonov was a big part of the INKAS team before a falling out in 2016.

Older piece in Plant.









						INKAS’ armoured vehicles provide safety in global “hot zones”
					

Toronto manufacturer INKAS is expanding five-fold thanks to its sharp focus on exports, R&D and customization.




					www.plant.ca
				





and don't forget these guys too.






						Information, and company contacts for the Gurkha armored car
					

Contact, service and after sales support information for the Gurkha armoured car, manufactured by the canadian company, Terradyne Armored Vehicles Inc.




					www.terradyneinc.com
				









						Conquest Vehicles | Company
					

Conquest



					www.conquestvehicles.com


----------



## MilEME09

Crazy night in kherson, estimated 5-20k Russians are still on the west side if the river. Ukrainian forces have entered kherson city, and the UAF is in turkey shoot mode.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590874142693158912


----------



## rmc_wannabe

MilEME09 said:


> Crazy night in kherson, estimated 5-20k Russian corpses  are scattered on the west side if the river. Ukrainian forces have entered kherson city, and the UAF is in turkey shoot mode.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590874142693158912


Fixed it for morning press releases....


----------



## FJAG




----------



## MilEME09

Liberation of Kherson city has been confirmed this morning 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591058010897424384


----------



## Dana381

MilEME09 said:


> Liberation of Kherson city has been confirmed this morning
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591058010897424384



Why the sensitive content warning? People cheering and crying is triggering now?  Not a gun or weapon in site.


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Dana381 said:


> Why the sensitive content warning? People cheering and crying is triggering now?  Not a gun or weapon in site.


Well, if you're Russian.....


----------



## Good2Golf

Colin Parkinson said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590368333727424512


Was I the only one that saw this as ass-covering Kabuki theatre? [Shoigu] “We must also think of the safety of the civilians…”   

Seemed like they were trying to drop anti-war crimes bread crumbs in the public arena.


----------



## YZT580

Dana381 said:


> Why the sensitive content warning? People cheering and crying is triggering now?  Not a gun or weapon in site.


SAD.  Doesn't look like the Russians left many civilians behind to cheer the returning Ukrainian army.  Now how do you get the forcefully evicted back home?


----------



## CBH99

MilEME09 said:


> Crazy night in kherson, estimated 5-20k Russians are still on the west side if the river. Ukrainian forces have entered kherson city, and the UAF is in turkey shoot mode.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590874142693158912


5-20k Russians killed during the retreat!?  Holy s**t…

Even if that number is on the low end of the estimate at 5000 - that’s one helluva send off!  


•Tell me you don’t like the Russians invading without telling me you don’t like the Russians invading… Whoa, shit, i didn’t say go kill them all!*


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukrainian anti-tank ditches.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ys5r66


----------



## TacticalTea

CBH99 said:


> 5-20k Russians killed during the retreat!?  Holy s**t…
> 
> Even if that number is on the low end of the estimate at 5000 - that’s one helluva send off!
> 
> 
> •Tell me you don’t like the Russians invading without telling me you don’t like the Russians invading… Whoa, shit, i didn’t say go kill them all!*


I haven't seen any evidence of annihilation or mass captures so far.


----------



## Kirkhill

Krab vs MSTA

Counter-Battery duel - drones + Krab = 4 rounds per kill

Russians firing more rounds but making no ground

Ukrainians poaching ground at the rate of 5 km per week

Krab has put 3500 rounds down range through a Polish barrel rated for 1500 rounds.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ys7iac


----------



## Kirkhill

Barrel life of 1500 rounds but 3500 rounds shot.

If using Excalibur, PGKs and other terminally guided rounds does the "1500" number still hold water?

I presume there are two effects of wear - accuracy and durability.   Do PGMs extend the life of the barrels - assuming similar charges?


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> Barrel life of 1500 rounds but 3500 rounds shot.
> 
> If using Excalibur, PGKs and other terminally guided rounds does the "1500" number still hold water?
> 
> I presume there are two effects of wear - accuracy and durability.   Do PGMs extend the life of the barrels - assuming similar charges?


Not directly 
 But any course correcting round will effectively increase usable barrel life as they are not solely reliant upon the barrel for dispersion.


----------



## MilEME09

CBH99 said:


> 5-20k Russians killed during the retreat!?  Holy s**t…
> 
> Even if that number is on the low end of the estimate at 5000 - that’s one helluva send off!
> 
> 
> •Tell me you don’t like the Russians invading without telling me you don’t like the Russians invading… Whoa, shit, i didn’t say go kill them all!*


5 to 20k is estimated personal the russian had, not casualties


----------



## CBH99

MilEME09 said:


> 5 to 20k is estimated personal the russian had, not casualties


I read 5-20k Russian bodies on the west side of the river…

And ‘turkey shoot’ and my brain was like “Nah, that can’t be right…but what if it is?”


----------



## Skysix

CBH99 said:


> I read 5-20k Russian bodies on the west side of the river…
> 
> And ‘turkey shoot’ and my brain was like “Nah, that can’t be right…but what if it is?”


I tend to think this German analysis is closer to the reality: "We won't shell the F out of your troops and allow them to escape if you don't destroy the city and remaining civilians"


----------



## brihard

A good thread from one of the better open source observers, putting this op (and huge success) into context:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591192952923369472


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591200992527151104


----------



## YZT580

A lot of talk but I have found little concrete information: is there any reliable indication of the number of POWs that Ukraine is currently responsible for?


----------



## FJAG

Kirkhill said:


> Barrel life of 1500 rounds but 3500 rounds shot.
> 
> If using Excalibur, PGKs and other terminally guided rounds does the "1500" number still hold water?
> 
> I presume there are two effects of wear - accuracy and durability.   Do PGMs extend the life of the barrels - assuming similar charges?


First of, barrel life for artillery is not measured in "rounds" but in "effective full charge" rounds. Only a round fired with the highest charge possible would you count it as 1 x EFC. If you fire at lower charges, then they only count as varying fractions of 1 EFC so it's usual to fire many more than 1,500 rounds and still not reach 1,500 EFC.

Second, firing rounds creates two things, wear on the barrel and possibly stress fractures in the barrel. Wear increases the diameter of the barrel in a way that ends up reducing muzzle velocity and thereby range and accuracy. Range can be compensated for. Canadian guns have small radar sets that measure the muzzle velocity of each round fired and thus allowing for adjustments to the range. 

As guns approach their effective life they are generally bore scoped and receive other tests to determine if there is excessive wear or other damage to the barrel. If not the EFC life of the barrel can be increased. Whether or not a barrel is condemned or not is a risk assessment. One can continue to adjust for muzzle velocity but barrel cracks and fractures can lead to a catastrophic barrel failure and that risk might be acceptable during a war when it wouldn't be in peacetime. There's more to it than just this and this article explains some of that.

Firing a precision munition does not "extend the life of the barrel". A precision round results in an EFC, or a fractional EFC,  just like an ordinary round depending on the charge fired. On the other hand, with the muzzle velocity adjusted for and the round being guided, the precision rounds accuracy is not effected as that of a "dumb" round fired from the same barrel would be.

Note too that sometimes the nature of the ammunition makes a big difference to the barrel wear as well. Back in the early 2000's Canada had produced 105mm rounds with a driving band that seriously eroded barrels far beyond what had been normal.

🍻


----------



## Skysix

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591200992527151104


So now instead of French Fries  are they gonna be called Russian Fries?


----------



## Kirkhill

Prigozhin's Private Army vs Putin?










						Top Kremlin Darling Shocks Putin Officials With Backstabbing Spree
					

Vladimir Putin’s most power-hungry crony is plunging Russia’s elite into chaos.



					www.thedailybeast.com


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> Prigozhin's Private Army vs Putin?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Top Kremlin Darling Shocks Putin Officials With Backstabbing Spree
> 
> 
> Vladimir Putin’s most power-hungry crony is plunging Russia’s elite into chaos.
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedailybeast.com


I don’t think Prig is at that point yet.  
   He’s consolidating some power - but I tend to think he’s doing more Vlad’s bidding at this point.   He’s targeting folks VVP doesn’t want to be visibly targeting directly.


----------



## SeaKingTacco

KevinB said:


> I don’t think Prig is at that point yet.
> He’s consolidating some power - but I tend to think he’s doing more Vlad’s bidding at this point.   He’s targeting folks VVP doesn’t want to be visibly targeting directly.


But, at what point does VVP lose control of Prig?


----------



## KevinB

SeaKingTacco said:


> But, at what point does VVP lose control of Prig?


Prig would have an ‘accident’ prior…


----------



## SeaKingTacco

KevinB said:


> Prig would have an ‘accident’ prior…


Maybe.

People get smart to that, eventually, and maybe take their own precautionary actions…


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> Prig would have an ‘accident’ prior…


Maaybe

Or VVP could have a relapse have to deal with a cancer flare up.

Edit:  Two minds with but a  single thought...


----------



## Kirkhill

New Russian rifle.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yterhf


----------



## Kirkhill

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591448934790168578

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yt9wvr

Kind of like opening the Scheldt Estuary - messy.


----------



## Kirkhill

One more for good measure - another woman sniper.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yt50qj


----------



## MilEME09

The joy of liberation continues 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591458335689146369


----------



## Skysix

His trainers should be proud, and when this is over and if he survives, he would be an excellent guest instructor at pretty much every NATO AA/AD school









						Ukrainian paratrooper has already downed more than 15 Russian drones, 2 helicopters
					

A paratrooper from Zhytomyr, code name "Celt", has already shot down more than 15 Russian UAVs and two Ka-52 helicopters. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Skysix

Com's guys: opinions on the universal use of "handles" as callsigns by both sides in Putin's Genocidal War against Ukraine? 

To the uneducated it seems a useable solution for a massively expanded volunteer/conscript army with limited time to train in radio proceedures.


----------



## Zipperhead99

This video is 25 min long but makes some excellent comparisons to Russia's failure in Ukraine to when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 and the conflicts that broke out in the Caucus, Central Asia, etc. We are already seeing it with Azerbaijan-Armenia tensions flaring up again this year and Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan almost at war.


----------



## Zipperhead99

Some insane combat footage: Ukrainian IFV comes upon a Russian trench position and the dismounts go right for it, forcing the Russians to run 



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591858092006068227


----------



## Kat Stevens

Zipperhead99 said:


> Some insane combat footage: Ukrainian IFV comes upon a Russian trench position and the dismounts go right for it, forcing the Russians to run
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591858092006068227


I couldn't make heads nor tails of this, it looks like a street throwdown straight outa Compton. Plus, I almost got a little seasick.


----------



## NavyShooter




----------



## daftandbarmy

Infantry be like...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591848513755058177


----------



## brihard

Zipperhead99 said:


> Some insane combat footage: Ukrainian IFV comes upon a Russian trench position and the dismounts go right for it, forcing the Russians to run
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591858092006068227


They didn't really 'force' anything... One good RPG hit on the IFV and it would have been done. They hit some poorly trained and disciplined Russian troops, and the Russians fled. Russkies probably thought there were more coming up behind.

Foolhardy, but super ballsy. Nicely done either way.


Kirkhill said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591448934790168578
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yt9wvr
> 
> Kind of like opening the Scheldt Estuary - messy.



I'm leery to credit too much to this, but the fact that there are credible rumours of Ukrainian troops there at all suggests that they've at least put troops ashore for a time, for something. If nothing else that'll have the Russians having to look over both shoulders.

I cannot imagine such an op _not_ being part of a broader coordinated effort that involves other measures to keep the Russians focused elsewhere. Otherwise this would just be an easy way to lose a bunch of probably really good troops.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Skysix said:


> Com's guys: opinions on the universal use of "handles" as callsigns by both sides in Putin's Genocidal War against Ukraine?
> 
> To the uneducated it seems a useable solution for a massively expanded volunteer/conscript army with limited time to train in radio proceedures.


The CONOPs of Signals for this entire campaign, on both sides, has put a lot of our NATO doctrine on its head. 

Firstly, the Russian EW threat has been a whimper compared to the roar we have all trained for. The fact that the Ukkies are able to conduct operations with everything from VHF, HF, Cellular, and civilian ISP with impunity is baffling compared to what we were warned about.

Secondly, the fact that the Ukrainians are operating across a massive AO without setting up the sprawling system of nodes and bearer systems we know and love, makes me thing we need to reorient how we deploy communications from the Bde Hq down. 

Thirdly, you could have voice procedure training coming out the ass, doesn't mean what's going on isn't effective communication. If you're able to push a FRAG O over an SMS in less time than you would get a Secure Data Link or "Long Message, prepare to copy, Para A..." why the hell not?

Our concept of IM and COMSEC were completely shattered on this one, in the sense that the Russians suck way more than we expect, and the Ukrainians have demonstrated the ability to get the message passed quickly trumps the need to get it there securely in a modern, kinetic, 21st century conflict.


----------



## Kirkhill

In the field from February to November

Rifleman
Machine-gunner
Sniper
Anti-tank gunner (NLAW...)

And now a field transfer to the armoured corps - tank driver.   From Hunter to Prey.

He says he needs a vacation....


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yuevub


----------



## brihard

rmc_wannabe said:


> The CONOPs of Signals for this entire campaign, on both sides, has put a lot of our NATO doctrine on its head.
> 
> Firstly, the Russian EW threat has been a whimper compared to the roar we have all trained for. The fact that the Ukkies are able to conduct operations with everything from VHF, HF, Cellular, and civilian ISP with impunity is baffling compared to what we were warned about.
> 
> Secondly, the fact that the Ukrainians are operating across a massive AO without setting up the sprawling system of nodes and bearer systems we know and love, makes me thing we need to reorient how we deploy communications from the Bde Hq down.
> 
> Thirdly, you could have voice procedure training coming out the ass, doesn't mean what's going on isn't effective communication. If you're able to push a FRAG O over an SMS in less time than you would get a Secure Data Link or "Long Message, prepare to copy, Para A..." why the hell not?
> 
> Our concept of IM and COMSEC were completely shattered on this one, in the sense that the Russians suck way more than we expect, and the Ukrainians have demonstrated the ability to get the message passed quickly trumps the need to get it there securely in a modern, kinetic, 21st century conflict.


Can a conscript army do signals and EW effectively? Or are those technical fields that really, really need a lot of educated, trained, and intelligent career experts, particularly at the technical expert NCO level?

Flip side - Ukrainians have shown what a well-enabled force can to to a conventional wartimes comms setup.  Although the Russians are facing a 'worst case' EW, ELINT and Signals environement due to the massive western support, that's exactly the kind of shitty battlespace our comms and EW should be striving to be ready for, I think? I'd love to get a retrospective after this is over of how Ukrainian (including western support) ELINT/SIGNINT contributed to the systematic abuse of Russian command and control.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

brihard said:


> Can a conscript army do signals and EW effectively? Or are those technical fields that really, really need a lot of educated, trained, and intelligent career experts, particularly at the technical expert NCO level?


Is it weird if I say you can have both?

A lot of where we need to be focusing our efforts as a force is the automation of a lot of processes we have skilled technicians/engineers/NCOs conducting.

Using things like AI, Machine Learning, and Sensor integration will mean that even with a conscript going from 0 to Holy Shit, a lot of the guess work goes out the window.


brihard said:


> Flip side - Ukrainians have shown what a well-enabled force can to to a conventional wartimes comms setup.  Although the Russians are facing a 'worst case' EW, ELINT and Signals environement due to the massive western support, that's exactly the kind of shitty battlespace our comms and EW should be striving to be ready for, I think?


Western support has been a massive kick in the pants for Russia, but ultimately, should have been for the ANA as well.  Where the Ukkies are excelling is their use of fast, expedient comms that are also very much civilian based. Cellular nets, internet; much like the civilian drones they have Frankensteined, are being used to great effect because it's hiding in plain sight.

Imagine setting up a cellular based BG HQ in the middle of a shopping mall with 500-1000 civilians running about. Which signal is the Bde G3 Ops and which one is Aunt Myrtle trying to find pants for Uncle Gary?



brihard said:


> I'd love to get a retrospective after this is over of how Ukrainian (including western support) ELINT/SIGNINT contributed to the systematic abuse of Russian command and control.


I think what we'll find is that Russia relied heavily on centralized C2 with sub-par equipment, while the Ukranians excelled at mission command and innovation.

As for the Sigs side, we are all trying to figure out what went wrong for Russia and what went right for Ukraine just as much as the Armoured Corp, Infantry Corps, and many other parts of the CA.


----------



## Kirkhill

Interesting small unit amphibious operation on a wide reach of the Dnipro.  Dawn launch from the West Bank?  Heading out of the shadows and the mists into the rising sun?

The Russians have called for an evacuation of everything 10 km east of the Dnipro.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yuech6



> Russian forces are evacuating the second largest city in the Kherson region of southern Ukraine as they prepare their defences along the left bank of the Dnipro River.
> 
> Pavel Filipchuk, the Kremlin-installed head of Nova Kakhovka, said that a 10-mile evacuation zone had been imposed south of the Dnipro River ahead of an expected Ukrainian attack after the Russian army’s retreat from Kherson city.
> 
> “This region is subject to mandatory evacuation because of the possibility of fighting and because every day there is an increased military presence,” said Mr Filipchuk.
> 
> “Certain military structures and fortifications are being built on this territory.”











						Russia evacuates city east of Kherson to bolster defensive lines
					

Soldiers ‘strengthen fortification’ and prepare for Ukrainian attack in Nova Kakhovka after troops make humiliating retreat




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## dapaterson

rmc_wannabe said:


> Imagine setting up a cellular based BG HQ in the middle of a shopping mall with 500-1000 civilians running about. Which signal is the Bde G3 Ops and which one is Aunt Myrtle trying to find pants for Uncle Gary?



Clearly that last one is PSYOPS.  Uncle Gary doesn't wear pants.


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> In the field from February to November
> 
> Rifleman
> Machine-gunner
> Sniper
> Anti-tank gunner (NLAW...)
> 
> And now a field transfer to the armoured corps - tank driver.   From Hunter to Prey.
> 
> He says he needs a vacation....
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yuevub


"We should know how to fight with any weapon we find on the battlefield"  

The potential trainers that are developing and the training philosophy changes steming from this war are huge. In all domains.


----------



## childs56

brihard said:


> Can a conscript army do signals and EW effectively? Or are those technical fields that really, really need a lot of educated, trained, and intelligent career experts, particularly at the technical expert NCO level?
> 
> Flip side - Ukrainians have shown what a well-enabled force can to to a conventional wartimes comms setup.  Although the Russians are facing a 'worst case' EW, ELINT and Signals environement due to the massive western support, that's exactly the kind of shitty battlespace our comms and EW should be striving to be ready for, I think? I'd love to get a retrospective after this is over of how Ukrainian (including western support) ELINT/SIGNINT contributed to the systematic abuse of Russian command and control.


There are many civilian fields who excel at Signal style work and EW style work that would make a definite asset to the Military. When you conscript and or utilize your Reserves you need to be mindful of their skill sets.


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukraine's OKS Generals









						Deputy Defence Minister reveals names of generals who liberate Ukraine’s south
					

Hanna Maliar, the Deputy Defence Minister of Ukraine published the names and photos of Ukrainian commanders who have been leading the counteroffensive in the country’s south




					www.pravda.com.ua


----------



## Kirkhill

Life is tough in the Donbas


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ytyax9


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ytx9cx


----------



## Kirkhill

Deserted Russian field positions in Kherson- Rough


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yu6g3o


----------



## brihard

childs56 said:


> There are many civilian fields who excel at Signal style work and EW style work that would make a definite asset to the Military. When you conscript and or utilize your Reserves you need to be mindful of their skill sets.


That brings some individual technical skills that could lend themselves to quicker individual training. Turning that into a usable capability requires a few more steps.

Two thoughts:

If you’re at the point of conscripting skilled labour from those sectors of your economy, you’re in trouble.
The Russians so far don’t seem to be very discerning in where they send troops. We’ve seen a fair bit of evidence of troops re-roled into combat arms from technical or support units that in normal circumstances would never be used as riflemen.


----------



## Spencer100

Skysix said:


> radio


----------



## Kirkhill

childs56 said:


> There are many civilian fields who excel at Signal style work and EW style work that would make a definite asset to the Military. When you conscript and or utilize your Reserves you need to be mindful of their skill sets.



Or you can engage the civilian corporation as an entity instead of trying to poach their people and recreate their capabilities and culture in your organization.

For the Ukrainians a lot is dependent on this being a Home Game.  They can assume a Blue Sea with Red Fish swimming in it.   Blue Fish, like their roving Intelligence groups and SOF types can assume a freedom to roam.   Even the ability of HIMARs to wander the Highways and get rounds off when they feel like it is indicative of that freedom.  Something else that impresses me is the ability of the Ukrainians to keep a lid on operations when the Government calls for it.  Social media goes quiet when asked.  The locals, invested in the outcome, get the need.

The Ukrainians are playing the Taliban and Vietnamese role with Western Support.

That makes it possible for small friendly columns and individual platoons to roam widely, confident that the land is with them.  Conversely the Russians have to rely on technology for intelligence and are confident that the land is against them.  They have to fight for everything - including food, water and warmth.


----------



## Kirkhill

Russian Dragon's Teeth as an effective obstacle


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yurq2h


----------



## Kirkhill

It's an interesting way to run a war.

Need jackhammers - don't go to the CQ.   Crowdsource it on Reddit and get an Amazon shipment of Makitas.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yv2viz


----------



## Kirkhill

Activity in the Svatove-Kreminna region?


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yv2oyi


----------



## Kirkhill

Russian consumer culture doesn't seem to be up to much

Toilets and Washing Machines....  and microwaves suspected of being safes.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yus6nl


----------



## Kirkhill

And for something a bit lighter


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yv5iv8


----------



## AmmoTech90

Kirkhill said:


> And for something a bit lighter


Pretty good simulation of wound packing.


----------



## Kirkhill

Preliminary report of a UAF presence on the East Bank of the Dnipro (nominally the Russian side) in Hola Prystan

Yesterday there were reports of explosions in Hola Prystan coupled with reports of Russians moving 10 miles or kilometers (depending on the source) from the river bank and evacuating Nova Kharkovka.   There was also a video of a small unit amphibious movement across the Dniepro and chatter about Ukrainian movement to the Kinburn peninsula.  Hola Prystan is at the base of that peninsula.

If the Ukrainians are keeping the Russian Navy bottled up in Sevastopol and the Army has pulled back from the river banks that gives the Ukrainians free run from Odessa to Dnipro on the Western Bank - about 450 km.   And the Ukrainians have been building up their Riverine navy.
CB90 type boats replacing HUMMWVs and VABs for small unit activity.

This also puts the Crimean Isthmus at risk and the water supply to the Crimea from the Novo Karkhovsk Dam.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yv7zln

Siege warfare with the Kerch Bridge down.

Interesting comments from the comments



> On the 12th, there were reports of fighting in National Park "Biloberezhia Sviatoslava", near the tip of the peninsula. On the 13th, reports that Heroiske, at the middle of the peninsula, had been taken. Today (the 14th), Hola Prystan (48 km east of Heroiske, but only 13 km southwest of Kherson.
> 
> This move wouldn't make sense if Ukraine only intended to set up a defensive perimeter, as they've now created a flank at least 40 km long, and smaller boats they have for supply and few docks available on the north shore of the Kinburn peninsula might be able to support a couple thousand troops (with no armored fighting vehicles or high-caliber artillery), enough to hold 5 km. Strikes me as audacity verging on recklessness, but perhaps Russian forces are just extraordinarily thin on the ground, here.
> 
> I'm beginning to think that there's something about the topology of the Dnipro valley, a high west bank (up to 50-60 m) overlooking a low lying, swampy east bank (1-2 m) is allowing Ukraine to gain fire control over the opposing bank, allowing larger boats/shipping to be used for logistics. It's crazy, but it just might work.




Related?  


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yv7amt


There were earlier reports of the Russians evacuating civilians from Hola Prystan through Port Zaliznyi on the south shore of the Kinburn Peninsula.  Early in the war that was also a hot area for partisan activity as I recall.


----------



## Kirkhill

Sorry, not sorry


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yv03is


----------



## Skysix

Learned a new word today, "vranyo"


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> Sorry, not sorry
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yv03is


Hopefully she still lives and is untortured but I highly doubt it


----------



## Skysix

Canada to provide CAD 500M in additional military assistance for Ukraine
					

Canada will provide CAD 500 million (approximately USD 400 million) in additional military assistance for Ukraine. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Prairie canuck

Skysix said:


> Canada to provide CAD 500M in additional military assistance for Ukraine
> 
> 
> Canada will provide CAD 500 million (approximately USD 400 million) in additional military assistance for Ukraine. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net


How many LAV 700 120mm mortar variants would half a billion buy?


----------



## Colin Parkinson




----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> Preliminary report of a UAF presence on the East Bank of the Dnipro (nominally the Russian side) in Hola Prystan
> 
> Yesterday there were reports of explosions in Hola Prystan coupled with reports of Russians moving 10 miles or kilometers (depending on the source) from the river bank and evacuating Nova Kharkovka.   There was also a video of a small unit amphibious movement across the Dniepro and chatter about Ukrainian movement to the Kinburn peninsula.  Hola Prystan is at the base of that peninsula.
> 
> If the Ukrainians are keeping the Russian Navy bottled up in Sevastopol and the Army has pulled back from the river banks that gives the Ukrainians free run from Odessa to Dnipro on the Western Bank - about 450 km.   And the Ukrainians have been building up their Riverine navy.
> CB90 type boats replacing HUMMWVs and VABs for small unit activity.
> 
> This also puts the Crimean Isthmus at risk and the water supply to the Crimea from the Novo Karkhovsk Dam.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yv7zln
> 
> Siege warfare with the Kerch Bridge down.
> 
> Interesting comments from the comments
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Related?
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yv7amt
> 
> 
> There were earlier reports of the Russians evacuating civilians from Hola Prystan through Port Zaliznyi on the south shore of the Kinburn Peninsula.  Early in the war that was also a hot area for partisan activity as I recall.



Balls O' Steel?

Light forces crossing a wide river in daylight to an unknown shore to Maintain Contact?


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yvjiw7

Rumours that Olyeshka across from Kherson has been seen Ukrainian activity.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> Balls O' Steel?
> 
> Light forces crossing a wide river in daylight to an unknown shore to Maintain Contact?
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yvjiw7
> 
> Rumours that Olyeshka across from Kherson has been seen Ukrainian activity.



Pucker factor would be high doing that in broad daylight... but that seems to be the way they roll


----------



## SeaKingTacco

daftandbarmy said:


> Pucker factor would be high doing that in broad daylight... but that seems to be the way they roll


Every day seems to be a “Ride of the Valkyries” kind of day for the Ukrainians…


----------



## daftandbarmy

SeaKingTacco said:


> Every day seems to be a “Ride of the Valkyries” kind of day for the Ukrainians…



A favourite battle cry: 'Last one to die is a sissy!'


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> Rumours that Olyeshka across from Kherson has been seen Ukrainian activity.


I have theory as to what they are doing if it is true, give it a few weeks to see if I'm on the mark. Feel free to pm if curious but oll refrain from publicly posting my theory for now. 

Either way Russia is on the back foot and Ukraine is keeping the pressure on across the entire front, not letting them rest


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> I have theory as to what they are doing if it is true, give it a few weeks to see if I'm on the mark. Feel free to pm if curious but oll refrain from publicly posting my theory for now.
> 
> Either way Russia is on the back foot and Ukraine is keeping the pressure on across the entire front, not letting them rest



I prefer to let the author tell the story.  I never liked going to the back of book first.  The Ukrainians are writing a heck of a tale.


----------



## Maxman1

Prairie canuck said:


> How many LAV 700 120mm mortar variants would half a billion buy?



You mean M1129 mortar carrier (M1252 for double V hull variants)?






Because we should absolutely buy a fleet of those.


----------



## Maxman1

SeaKingTacco said:


> Every day seems to be a “Ride of the Valkyries” kind of day for the Ukrainians…


----------



## IKnowNothing

Maxman1 said:


> You mean M1129 mortar carrier (M1252 for double V hull variants)?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Because we should absolutely buy a fleet of those.


It's ludicrous that there has been not 1, not 2, not 3, but 4 LAV based fleet purchases since the Marine LAV-M and an equivalent variant wasn't included.


----------



## Kirkhill

More on Ukrainian Activity on the East Bank - Lack of organized resistance permitting light forces to advance?









						Kherson Oblast: Russians retreating 15-20 kilometres inland on left bank of Dnipro River
					

The Russian occupation troops are moving 15-20 kilometres inland from their constructed frontiers on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast in order to avoid attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, the south defence forces are taking the Russians’ logistics under their fire...




					www.pravda.com.ua
				





__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yvnkcy

The Ukrainians apparently now have a presence on East Bank all the way from the Kinburn Spit on the Dnipro Estuary to Karkhovka with the Russians not contesting the first 10 to 20 km of river bank along that entire length.  That puts the Crimean Water supply from Nova Karkhovka back in Ukrainian hands.   It is about 120 km from that pipeline to Henichesk on the eastern highway into Crimea.   That leaves Crimea detached from Russia at Kerch and lacking water from Ukraine.


----------



## daftandbarmy

I'm amazed that they even care, but FWIW:


*Russia has angrily rejected international calls for it to pay for war damage it has inflicted in Ukraine.*

It comes after the UN General Assembly passed a resolution saying Russia should face the consequences of its actions, including paying reparations.

General Assembly resolutions carry symbolic weight, but do not have the power to enforce compliance.

The Kremlin said it would work to stop the West seizing its international reserves to pay for reparations.

Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov accused the West of attempting to "formalise robbery" and violate the rules of private property and international law.

The resolution said that Russia "must bear the legal consequences of all of its internationally wrongful acts, including making reparation for the injury, including any damage, caused by such acts".

It also recommends that member states, in collaboration with Ukraine, create an international register to record evidence and claims against Russia.









						Russian anger as UN calls for reparations over invasion of Ukraine
					

In a largely symbolic move, the UN found that Russia should be held accountable for its conduct.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> I'm amazed that they even care, but FWIW:
> 
> 
> *Russia has angrily rejected international calls for it to pay for war damage it has inflicted in Ukraine.*
> 
> It comes after the UN General Assembly passed a resolution saying Russia should face the consequences of its actions, including paying reparations.
> 
> General Assembly resolutions carry symbolic weight, but do not have the power to enforce compliance.
> 
> The Kremlin said it would work to stop the West seizing its international reserves to pay for reparations.
> 
> Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov accused the West of attempting to "formalise robbery" and violate the rules of private property and international law.
> 
> The resolution said that Russia "must bear the legal consequences of all of its internationally wrongful acts, including making reparation for the injury, including any damage, caused by such acts".
> 
> It also recommends that member states, in collaboration with Ukraine, create an international register to record evidence and claims against Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian anger as UN calls for reparations over invasion of Ukraine
> 
> 
> In a largely symbolic move, the UN found that Russia should be held accountable for its conduct.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com



Interesting the number of abstentions, did not votes and no-shows on that resolution.  Fining countries could get to be a habit.


----------



## Kirkhill

More on the Russians retiring further from the Dnipro and abandoning prepared positions.









						Enemy leaving equipped lines on east bank of Dnipro River - Humeniuk
					

The enemy's logistics on the east bank of the Dnipro River are under fire control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, so the occupiers are retreating deeper, according to Nataliia Humeniuk, head of the press center of the security and defense forces of Ukraine’s Operational Command South. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Kirkhill

A day in the life of a FOO Tm - Don't forget the coffee.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yvrupy


----------



## quadrapiper

daftandbarmy said:


> Pucker factor would be high doing that in broad daylight... but that seems to be the way they roll


Wonder how much their enthusiastic use of drones has changed some of the perceived risks?


----------



## daftandbarmy

quadrapiper said:


> Wonder how much their enthusiastic use of drones has changed some of the perceived risks?



You know, that's an important thing I keep forgetting about.

If you've got drone coverage, as well as reports from friendlies on the other side, that information would probably make a big difference in any go/no go decision.


----------



## TacticalTea

How's some Article 5 for breakfast?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592591014770143233


----------



## KevinB

TacticalTea said:


> How's some Article 5 for breakfast?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592591014770143233


The Missile tracks will be interesting to see if it was deliberate - or just Russian incompetence.

Either way, Russia just gave Poland an excuse to ramp up efforts to De-Putinize Russia that they have been waiting for...


----------



## brihard

TacticalTea said:


> How's some Article 5 for breakfast?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592591014770143233


They won’t article 5 over an accident.

Give this a day to develop and solidify. Poland and the US will likely be able to determine (probably already have) exactly what happened. Whether air defense gone astray, or a Russian missile, it’s Russia’s fault… But you don’t drag an alliance into a war over such a thing. Loud noises will be made and more kit provided to Ukraine, NATO may posture more air defense and ISR farther east, but it won’t kick off WW3.


----------



## MilEME09

brihard said:


> They won’t article 5 over an accident.
> 
> Give this a day to develop and solidify. Poland and the US will likely be able to determine (probably already have) exactly what happened. Whether air defense gone astray, or a Russian missile, it’s Russia’s fault… But you don’t drag an alliance into a war over such a thing. Loud noises will be made and more kit provided to Ukraine, NATO may posture more air defense and ISR farther east, but it won’t kick off WW3.


You are assuming accident, two missiles reportedly struck into Poland. Given the range from Russian controlled airspace, likely would mean a ALCM which is GPS and inertia guided. Once is a mistake, twice? Not so much. NATO would not invoke article 5 without investigating this fully. If there is any evidence of it being deliberate, Poland will be out for blood


----------



## TacticalTea

brihard said:


> They won’t article 5 over an accident.
> 
> Give this a day to develop and solidify. Poland and the US will likely be able to determine (probably already have) exactly what happened. Whether air defense gone astray, or a Russian missile, it’s Russia’s fault… But you don’t drag an alliance into a war over such a thing. Loud noises will be made and more kit provided to Ukraine, NATO may posture more air defense and ISR farther east, but it won’t kick off WW3.


I said it mostly in jest, but 5 is not out of the question: 


> if such an armed attack occurs, each of them [...] will assist the Party [...] so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, *such action as it deems necessary* [...] to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area


Does not mean war necessarily.

Turkey considered it for its downed jet.

I'd take it more as a ''force the Alliance member states to do more''. ''Show us Article 5 means something or let the Alliance fall apart'' type deal.


----------



## KevinB

brihard said:


> They won’t article 5 over an accident.
> 
> Give this a day to develop and solidify. Poland and the US will likely be able to determine (probably already have) exactly what happened. Whether air defense gone astray, or a Russian missile, it’s Russia’s fault… But you don’t drag an alliance into a war over such a thing. Loud noises will be made and more kit provided to Ukraine, NATO may posture more air defense and ISR farther east, but it won’t kick off WW3.


Russian missiles confirmed already. 
   Some 65km inside of Poland…


Even if someone wasn’t reading the RVSN mail it would looks pretty shady.

Just saying.   

I don’t think accident is going to fly.


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> Some 65km inside of Poland…


Are you sure? Lviv is, you guessed it... 65km from the Polish border.

Coincidence or translation error?


----------



## The Bread Guy

If it does end up more deliberate than a couple of drunken missileers f#$%^&*(ng up, USSR 2.0 picked the wrong NATO country to poke, given the white-hot hatred of USSR 1.0 🍿


----------



## KevinB

TacticalTea said:


> Are you sure? Lviv is, you guessed it... 65km from the Polish border.
> 
> Coincidence or translation error?


I got the distance from two separate sources.


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> I got the distance from two separate sources.


It seems the town is Przewodow, 6.5 km from the border. Those sources might also have skipped the decimal.

It is also about 65km north of Lviv's northern edge.

Edit: Russia unintentionally confirms it:

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592610210061123584


----------



## KevinB

TacticalTea said:


> It seems the town is Przewodow, 6.5 km from the border. Those sources might also have skipped the decimal.
> 
> It is also about 65km north of Lviv's northern edge.
> 
> Edit: Russia unintentionally confirms it:
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592610210061123584


Gotcha. Probably an issue with Miles to KM conversions.  
   Weird that both my wife got the 65km in a meeting and another buddy of mine called me with the same distance.


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> You are assuming accident, two missiles reportedly struck into Poland. Given the range from Russian controlled airspace, likely would mean a ALCM which is GPS and inertia guided. Once is a mistake, twice? Not so much. NATO would not invoke article 5 without investigating this fully. If there is any evidence of it being deliberate, Poland will be out for blood


Absolutely I’m assuming accident. I don’t for a second think that a minor polish Grain drying site was struck deliberately. It may even have been Ukrainian air defense missiles that missed and had to land _somewhere_. If in fact it was two cruise missiles that both hit close to each other, that would suggest a targeting screwup, or maybe even a successful guidance spoofing.



TacticalTea said:


> I said it mostly in jest, but 5 is not out of the question:
> 
> Does not mean war necessarily.
> 
> Turkey considered it for its downed jet.
> 
> I'd take it more as a ''force the Alliance member states to do more''. ''Show us Article 5 means something or let the Alliance fall apart'' type deal.



I was speaking in terms of a kinetic military response, but of course you’re right that article 5 can mean much less than that.

Is this a big deal? Sorta/kinda. Will this drag NATO, or at least Poland more into the war beyond more kit and other support? Highly unlikely.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592610407608627201
and another 38 Billion (and change) US gear to Ukraine now from POTUS...


----------



## KevinB

Russia attacks Ukraine energy grid 

Russian missiles into Poland...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592616005851054080
Coincidence?


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592607174349713408


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592598009157943296


----------



## Kat Stevens

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592607174349713408


Well. There it is, then. Irrefutable truth. I know my boy Vlad and if he says he didn't do it, he didn't do it. He's a good boy. This is harassment, plain and simple.


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592610407608627201
> *and another 38 Billion (and change) US gear to Ukraine now from POTUS...*


Thought you were just making an off-the-cuff prediction...

But no: Biden asks for over $37 billion in emergency Ukraine aid

Evidently trying to make the most of the remaining days of a Democrat congress. Which is great.


----------



## Kat Stevens

It would be a shame if a whole bunch Polish long range thingamajigs got a quick re-spray, and their crews got temp issued Ukrainian uniforms. To make it worse, if those same long range thingamajigs found themselves inside Ukraine, _*purely *_by accident of course, say a screwup in a night nav exercise, and accidentally hurled a shitload of HE into Mother Russia, that would be just terrible. Really. Devastating.


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> You know, that's an important thing I keep forgetting about.
> 
> If you've got drone coverage, as well as reports from friendlies on the other side, that information would probably make a big difference in any go/no go decision.



Further to this 

If you are receiving information like this it might influence decisions.

A Russian journalist apparently getting out of Dodge (Oleshky) in a hurry after a sudden change in fortunes.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592276395119476736


----------



## Kat Stevens

Kirkhill said:


> Further to this
> 
> If you are receiving information like this it might influence decisions.
> 
> A Russian journalist apparently getting out of Dodge (Oleshky) in a hurry after a sudden change in fortunes.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592276395119476736


Not a bad movie, good car chase scene, but I was very disappointed there was no "WOOOoooossshhhh.......BANG!!" at the end.  *** / 5.


----------



## Kirkhill

2022/11/15 - 13:49 • LATEST NEWS UKRAINE

Russia declared occupied Henichesk as the new “capital of Kherson Oblast” in order to consolidate its defenses in Ukraine’s south because the town is so far out of range of the Ukrainian artillery, according to the British Defense Ministry’s intelligence update of 15 November.





Henichesk is at the Northern end of the Western Spit that bypasses the salt marshes dividing Crimea from Ukraine.


----------



## Kirkhill

But there is more - 

Three days ago - after the Russians successfully evacuated Kherson on the 12th they declared Henichesky the new capital of Kherson.









						Russia names Henichesk temporary capital of annexed Kherson region — Meduza
					

Henichesk will be the temporary administrative capital of the occupied part of the Kherson region, following the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kherson.




					meduza.io
				




There were also reports of Chechens and Buryats with heavy equipment moving into the area.  Keep in mind Chechens keep Buryats in line.  Buryats keep Russian conscripts in line.


----------



## Kat Stevens

Kirkhill said:


> But there is more -
> 
> Three days ago - after the Russians successfully evacuated Kherson on the 12th they declared Henichesky the new capital of Kherson.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia names Henichesk temporary capital of annexed Kherson region — Meduza
> 
> 
> Henichesk will be the temporary administrative capital of the occupied part of the Kherson region, following the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kherson.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> meduza.io
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There were also reports of Chechens and Buryats with heavy equipment moving into the area.  Keep in mind Chechens keep Buryats in line.  Buryats keep Russian conscripts in line.


So sneak in all Gurkha in North Africa like and start slitting Chechen throats in their fartsacks at night.


----------



## Kirkhill

But there is still more - from the Ukrainian General Staff 

Ukrainska Pravda
Tue, November 15, 2022 at 9:49 AM·2 min read


Some units of the Russian occupation forces have withdrawn from the cities of Skadovsk and Henichesk in Kherson Oblast and are moving towards Russian-occupied Crimea.
*Source*: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook, information as of 18:00 on 15 November



Skadovsk is the underlined community on the West and Henichesk is the one on the East.

Both of those communities, are being abandoned and troops drawn deeper into Crimea.

That leaves open the possibility of no organized resistance by the Russians North of the Crimea from Kinburn Spit to Energodar.











						Russian units relocate from Skadovsk and Henichesk districts of Kherson Oblast to Crimea
					

Some units of the Russian occupation forces have withdrawn from the cities of Skadovsk and Henichesk in Kherson Oblast and are moving towards Russian-occupied Crimea. Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook, information as of 18:00 on 15 November Quote: "Several units of...




					news.yahoo.com
				




That may have upset Vlad's boat a bit this morning.


----------



## Skysix

MilEME09 said:


> You are assuming accident, two missiles reportedly struck into Poland. Given the range from Russian controlled airspace, likely would mean a ALCM which is GPS and inertia guided. Once is a mistake, twice? Not so much. NATO would not invoke article 5 without investigating this fully. If there is any evidence of it being deliberate, Poland will be out for blood


Assuming Hungary and Turkey agree at the article 4 conference after the debris, missile tracks and Ukrainian AD efforts have been analysed.

Proportionality might be allowing NATO air defense units into Ukraine and 'contractor' support/local repair of various weapons systems. Worst case, the Baltics and Poland repaint a bunch of gear and allow troopies to "take accumulated leave and volunteer to join one of (or a new) Ukraines Foreign Legions"


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> Further to this
> 
> If you are receiving information like this it might influence decisions.
> 
> A Russian journalist apparently getting out of Dodge (Oleshky) in a hurry after a sudden change in fortunes.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592276395119476736


Yeah, getting caught as a  collaborator and possible traitor will kinda ruin your day...


----------



## Kirkhill

10 days ago, before the evacuation of Kherson, The Guardian was reporting that the Russian Army HQ was relocating to the port of Skadovsk, on the southern shore of the Kinburn Peninsula and the Capital was relocating to Henichesk.

Now it seems both of those "safe havens" are, or have been, abandoned.

A defensive line is being established, stretching from the town of Velyka Znamyanka in Zaporizhzhia oblast to Nova Kakhovka in regional Kherson. Russia has shifted its army HQ to the port city of Skadovsk, closer to Crimea.









						Russian troops loot Kherson as lines redrawn ahead of final battle for city
					

Moscow is deporting residents along with stolen art, tractors and cars as Ukraine’s forces close in




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## brihard

Kirkhill said:


> But there is still more - from the Ukrainian General Staff
> 
> Ukrainska Pravda
> Tue, November 15, 2022 at 9:49 AM·2 min read
> 
> 
> Some units of the Russian occupation forces have withdrawn from the cities of Skadovsk and Henichesk in Kherson Oblast and are moving towards Russian-occupied Crimea.
> *Source*: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook, information as of 18:00 on 15 November
> 
> View attachment 74904
> 
> Skadovsk is the underlined community on the West and Henichesk is the one on the East.
> 
> Both of those communities, are being abandoned and troops drawn deeper into Crimea.
> 
> That leaves open the possibility of no organized resistance by the Russians North of the Crimea from Kinburn Spit to Energodar.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russian units relocate from Skadovsk and Henichesk districts of Kherson Oblast to Crimea
> 
> 
> Some units of the Russian occupation forces have withdrawn from the cities of Skadovsk and Henichesk in Kherson Oblast and are moving towards Russian-occupied Crimea. Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook, information as of 18:00 on 15 November Quote: "Several units of...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.yahoo.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That may have upset Vlad's boat a bit this morning.


You’re drawing pretty wild conclusions off some pretty thin rumors.

Might some Russian units have moved south? Sure, maybe. Might be a RiP, might be they’re moving to reconstitute, might be that Russia simply changed its assessment of what’s needed where.

This is an area where Russians may have a tad more popular support. Russia likely has a decent sense of what Ukraine has done since retaking the right bank. Ukraine’s intentions aren’t super hard to discern, and Russia is likely counting on the river to bolster its flank.

Russian forces writ large are probably shifting east to protect Tokmak and Melitopol, but at a level as granular as village garrisons, that could mean individual units moving in pretty much any directions as larger formations reorient.

Have the Russians proven to be way more junk than anticipated? Yes. But they are not without conventional military thought and a planning process. It’s likely that at least some of the senior leadership who have survived to keep their jobs probably have at least a partial clue and may move some pieces around the board beyond just straight forwards or back.


----------



## Kat Stevens

brihard said:


> You’re drawing pretty wild conclusions off some pretty thin rumors.
> 
> Might some Russian units have moved south? Sure, maybe. Might be a RiP, might be they’re moving to reconstitute, might be that Russia simply changed its assessment of what’s needed where.
> 
> This is an area where Russians may have a tad more popular support. Russia likely has a decent sense of what Ukraine has done since retaking the right bank. Ukraine’s intentions aren’t super hard to discern, and Russia is likely counting on the river to bolster its flank.
> 
> Russian forces writ large are probably shifting east to protect Tokmak and Melitopol, but at a level as granular as village garrisons, that could mean individual units moving in pretty much any directions as larger formations reorient.
> 
> Have the Russians proven to be way more junk than anticipated? Yes. But they are not without conventional military thought and a planning process. It’s likely that at least some of the senior leadership who have survived to keep their jobs probably have at least a partial clue and may move some pieces around the board beyond just straight forwards or back.


I know I'm not a big strat/tac brain, but I've said it before, I can't help the feeling that the sudden and rapid collapse is to draw the bulk of UAF into a giant shit sandwich.


----------



## Kirkhill

brihard said:


> You’re drawing pretty wild conclusions off some pretty thin rumors.
> 
> Might some Russian units have moved south? Sure, maybe. Might be a RiP, might be they’re moving to reconstitute, might be that Russia simply changed its assessment of what’s needed where.
> 
> This is an area where Russians may have a tad more popular support. Russia likely has a decent sense of what Ukraine has done since retaking the right bank. Ukraine’s intentions aren’t super hard to discern, and Russia is likely counting on the river to bolster its flank.
> 
> Russian forces writ large are probably shifting east to protect Tokmak and Melitopol, but at a level as granular as village garrisons, that could mean individual units moving in pretty much any directions as larger formations reorient.
> 
> Have the Russians proven to be way more junk than anticipated? Yes. But they are not without conventional military thought and a planning process. It’s likely that at least some of the senior leadership who have survived to keep their jobs probably have at least a partial clue and may move some pieces around the board beyond just straight forwards or back.



Respectfully I am reporting information that is generally available.

I can accept that the information can be wrong.  But none of it is being presented as conditional by the originators.


As far as the conditions of the Russians are concerned -  In June of 1940 the Brits managed to leave Dunkirk by water - some unit cohesion was maintained, some troops kept their uniforms, some troops kept their rifles.   It took the Brits a year or two to organize an effective army.  In the meantime the Canadian Army was a key element in the Defence of Britain force.

Why would it be surprising that the Russians are disorganized under the current circumstances?


----------



## brihard

Kat Stevens said:


> I know I'm not a big strat/tac brain, but I've said it before, I can't help the feeling that the sudden and rapid collapse is to draw the bulk of UAF into a giant shit sandwich.


I’m not either. To qualify my expertise, I have none. I was a reserve NCO who played hopscotch with IEDs once and briefly. Just so that nobody mistakes me writing well for me having a clue. I’m just a dude who can reason.

So, that said- the thing with serving up a shit sandwich and calling it Nutella, is it relies on the other guy not having a nose. Ukraine has a number of incredible noses loaned to them. Right now western noses are intruding like my golden retriever snuffling under the door when I’m on the can. We have the US, UK, and other super technological western powers applying much of what they’re got to discerning every move the Russians make. They’re listening to stuff you or I don’t even know or suspect exists. Even if Russia had some big-brain plan to lure Ukraine into some sort of trap, Ukraine is likely in a place to discern the trap and exploit the hell out of Russian intent.

Kherson makes the most sense when you understand the Russians to be an army that sucks at the tactical level but still has decent thinkers. They were losing that theatre. Ukraine gained superiority of fires and put a tourniquet on Russia’s logistical arteries. Russia may have actually excelled by picking how it lost. It’s increasingly evident that they orchestrated a withdrawal over most of two months, and probably got a lot of their troops and kit out in whatever Russia considers good order. We have NOT seen - and I’ll stick my hand here and self identify a botched belief/prediction - much signs that Kherson was a rout. Did Russia cave on the right bank of the Dnipro? For sure. But it was a planned demotion, not a house falling over on its occupants. Maybe prt if that is Ukraine exploiting the withdrawal very carefully and conservatively, but I’m willing to credit Russia with likely having correctly assumed Ukraine would be careful.

Russia appears to be an enemy that is losing, but that has had some Darwinian pressures on its leadership. Those running the show have most of a year’s worth of lessons learned. Each senior level of command is, by now, probably the ‘top third’ of those who survived one level lower. That doesn’t mean what’s left is great, but it means that the enemy  between Brigade and army level is likely less stupid, and that the things Ukraine needs to exploit have changed.

But that’s just one dude’s real time musings.


----------



## Kirkhill

Kat Stevens said:


> I know I'm not a big strat/tac brain, but I've said it before, I can't help the feeling that the sudden and rapid collapse is to draw the bulk of UAF into a giant shit sandwich.



The Ukrainians seem quite happy to pump up their light forces and publicize rapid gains in unopposed or low resistance areas.  The info that the Ukrainians have been releasing is of very light, intelligence and SOF elements moving around a low density battlefield with limited evidence of resistance.   These are guys in boats, and pickups and ATVs with small arms.  

Nothing says that the Ukrainians have felt the need to push heavy gear into Southern Kherson.  On the other hand their presence does seem to be giving the Russians pause.

As I've noted previously this region - from Kinburn to Melitopol was subject to a lot of Partisan and SF operations (sabotage) even when the Russians were considered masters of the area.

A lot of the war maps showed chunks of terrain away from the roads and railroads as stripy contested areas meaning the Russians lacked full control.  Exactly the same problems they faced earlier in the year around Kyiv.

Edit - note the stripy doughnut hole centred on Melitopol.

The Russian grip on the south has always been stressed.


----------



## OldSolduer

Kat Stevens said:


> I know I'm not a big strat/tac brain, but I've said it before, I can't help the feeling that the sudden and rapid collapse is to draw the bulk of UAF into a giant shit sandwich.


Feigned flight? 

A time honored tactic that was a Mongol staple.


----------



## OceanBonfire

NATO to meet on Wednesday at request of Poland for consultations - diplomats
					

NATO ambassadors will meet on Wednesday at the request of Poland on basis of the alliance's Article 4, two European diplomats told Reuters after an explosion in Poland close to the Ukrainian border reportedly caused by a stray Russian missile.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Maxman1

Skysix said:


> Yeah, getting caught as a  collaborator and possible traitor will kinda ruin your day...


----------



## OceanBonfire

> If it is determined that Moscow was to blame for the blast, it could trigger NATO’s principle of collective defense known as Article 5, in which an attack on one of the Western alliance’s members is deemed an attack on all, starting deliberations on a potential military response.











						Explainer: How NATO's defense obligations could be triggered by Ukraine conflict
					

A deadly explosion occurred in NATO member Poland's territory near its border with Ukraine on Tuesday, and the United States and its allies said they were investigating unconfirmed reports the blast was caused by stray Russian missiles.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Quirky

Great time for Canada to send a convening team to calm things down. 

Or just let the Poles have at it.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Quirky said:


> Or just let the Poles have at it.


I'm sure their dogs are tugging at the chain right now to go bite Putin's face off.


----------



## MilEME09

Some speculation that it was a S300 launched from Belarus, which would change things if Belarus takes the blame


----------



## Skysix

Back on the secure/insecure coms topic for a sec, much can be made of a bad sitation if the radio users are creative






The defense of Mariupul will rank right up there with Thermopylae.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Skysix said:


> Back on the secure/insecure coms topic for a sec, much can be made of a bad sitation if the radio users are creative
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The defense of Mariupul will rank right up there with Thermopylae.


This is absolute brilliance. I am honestly humbled by their ingenuity and tenacity.


----------



## MilEME09

I'll take Russian incompetence for 1000 Alex


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592669625183264768


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> I'll take Russian incompetence for 1000 Alex
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592669625183264768


Huh. It’s an interesting theory. No idea if it checks out or is compelling, but if you fire enough missile volleys in wartime conditions, I could see this kind of lat/long goof happening at least once.


----------



## quadrapiper

brihard said:


> Ukraine has a number of incredible noses loaned to them. Right now western noses are intruding like my golden retriever snuffling under the door when I’m on the can.


Quite like that metaphor.


brihard said:


> We have the US, UK, and other super technological western powers applying much of what they’re got to discerning every move the Russians make. They’re listening to stuff you or I don’t even know or suspect exists. Even if Russia had some big-brain plan to lure Ukraine into some sort of trap, Ukraine is likely in a place to discern the trap and exploit the hell out of Russian intent.


They also give every impression of being on top of those things that can be accomplished by small number of suitably kitted and trained people going for a walk.


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> And for something a bit lighter
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yv5iv8



Another view


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yw2wxa

Some of you may remember this "model" and her "toy" gun.  The video is hers.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u9yka2

This is her own thread









						panikiranechai (u/panikiranechai) - Reddit
					

u/panikiranechai: How to help the unit? Medical supply https://www.amazon.com/hz/wishlist/ls/3ING3J4HK2IYH?ref_=wl_share : PayPal …




					www.reddit.com


----------



## Skysix

From a Ukrainian source  but even without the commentary the video shows a side of provincial Russian life that is not impressive.


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592775060456378369


----------



## Eaglelord17

So the current narrative is its either Ukrainian or it was shot down by Ukraine/AD sent them that way.

My guess is that is a excuse to avoid putting the blame directly on Russia to avoid actual conflict with NATO countries. They are achieving their geopolitical goals there without having to sacrifice any of their troops, why change that?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some of the narrative from Poland ...








						Poland, NATO say missile landing wasn't Russian attack
					

Poland said there is "absolutely no indication" that missile which came down in Polish farmland, killing two people, was intentional attack.




					calgarysun.com


----------



## MilEME09

Eaglelord17 said:


> So the current narrative is its either Ukrainian or it was shot down by Ukraine/AD sent them that way.
> 
> My guess is that is a excuse to avoid putting the blame directly on Russia to avoid actual conflict with NATO countries. They are achieving their geopolitical goals there without having to sacrifice any of their troops, why change that?


I wished it was Belarus who fired it, give NATO a diplomatic move to tell Russia get out of Ukraine or Belarus will have a new leader by Christmas


----------



## daftandbarmy

Time to double down...


Russia needs a respite, so the West must help Ukraine fight on

The mishap in Poland should concentrate minds on tackling the cause of the conflict

Poland and its allies deserve praise for their calm response. As Russia’s state media gloated over the death of Poles and accused its enemies of a “provocation”, nato governments collected evidence and avoided raising the temperature. Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, made a rare misstep in painting the accident as a Russian missile attack. But Russia’s behaviour courts disaster. In March it struck a base just 15 miles from the Polish border. The same month, a Soviet-era drone carrying explosives crashed in the Croatian capital, Zagreb. In September a Russian jet inadvertently fired an air-to-air missile close to a British spyplane in international airspace over the Black Sea. Russia does not want a war with nato. But it hopes that such danger will induce nato to back down.

That must not happen. Some American officials are showing signs of nerves. Mark Milley, America’s top general, has compared the conflict to the stalemate of the first world war. He has cast doubt on Ukraine’s ability to shift the front lines further and suggested that it should consider negotiations with the Kremlin. His diagnosis and prescription are both flawed.









						Russia needs a respite, so the West must help Ukraine fight on
					

The mishap in Poland should concentrate minds on tackling the cause of the conflict




					www.economist.com


----------



## NavyShooter




----------



## Kirkhill

A bit of porn for the tankees.  10 minutes of Gopro video from inside Russian  tanks.

Two companies?  of Russian tanks, fighting for ground 7 km from the end of the Donetsk airport runway.  Not much movement in 8 years.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yx3d6u


----------



## Skysix

Note the missing circuit boards - perhaps there is a standing order to acquire as much western electronics as possible so the chips can be built into Russian weapons...


----------



## Kirkhill

More from UK Forces News on the Ukrainian 5 week courses in the UK.

200 civilians per intake.  5 weeks of instruction.  Down selection of Junior Leaders on the fly from the course.

Ukraininian Platoon Commanders brought in to advise, revise and brief back the Brits.  Lessons Learned

18,000 Ukrainians reported dead by Ben Wallace - since 2014.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

That's the first real use of smoke I have seen in these video's


----------



## Skysix

Canada to allocate another $26M in military aid to Ukraine
					

Canada announced a new batch of defense assistance to Ukraine worth CAD34 million (about USD26 million). — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592904697580781568








						November 16, 2022 Russia-Ukraine news
					

Polish President Andrzej Duda said that the missile that hit his country on Tuesday was "probably an accident" from Ukraine's air defenses. Follow live updates here.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Rifleman62

Where are Russia's T-80s?​


----------



## Spencer100

Another Colonel suicides with 4 guns and 5 shots to the chest. 



			Russian colonel found dead in his office under 'mysterious' circumstances, here's what we know
		


Doing a poor job is now suicide in Russia.


----------



## KevinB

Spencer100 said:


> Another Colonel suicides with 4 guns and 5 shots to the chest.
> 
> 
> 
> Russian colonel found dead in his office under 'mysterious' circumstances, here's what we know
> 
> 
> 
> Doing a poor job is now suicide in Russia.


TBH doing any job in Russia can result in "Suicide"
  The departed was heavily involved in mobilization, including that of students at the Military Academy, I suspect a few of those students didn't like being mobilized...


----------



## Skysix




----------



## CBH99

Kirkhill said:


> More from UK Forces News on the Ukrainian 5 week courses in the UK.
> 
> 200 civilians per intake.  5 weeks of instruction.  Down selection of Junior Leaders on the fly from the course.
> 
> Ukraininian Platoon Commanders brought in to advise, revise and brief back the Brits.  Lessons Learned
> 
> 18,000 Ukrainians reported dead by Ben Wallace - since 2014.


Amazing what can be accomplished when there is a distinct sense of purpose present…

Tell me again…WHY does it take us a month (almost the same timeframe) just to have recruits marching in a uniform they can wear properly, while able to properly handle a C7?

(Rhetorical)


----------



## The Bread Guy

KevinB said:


> ... I suspect a few of those students didn't like being mobilized...


Or some of their parents?


----------



## daftandbarmy

CBH99 said:


> Amazing what can be accomplished when there is a distinct sense of purpose present…
> 
> Tell me again…WHY does it take us a month (almost the same timeframe) just to have recruits marching in a uniform they can wear properly, while able to properly handle a C7?
> 
> (Rhetorical)



To be fair, they only need to be good enough to make it through the first couple of weeks of battle.

After that, they could come back to train us how to win against the Russians.


----------



## KevinB

daftandbarmy said:


> To be fair, they only need to be good enough to make it through the first couple of weeks of battle.
> 
> After that, they could come back to train us how to win against the Russians.


Clearly they didn’t know it was Impossible  to have a Military without months of DLN Death by PowerPoint.  
    Maybe the CAF could convene some for them


----------



## TacticalTea

Foolhardy Russian sentences his squad mates to death:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593515224790974465


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> Clearly they didn’t know it was Impossible  to have a Military without months of DLN Death by PowerPoint.
> Maybe the CAF could convene some for them



I know a guy who joined the RLI in the 70s, at the height of the Bush War. He had prior military service, but they put him in with all the new recruits who were mostly people from urban areas.

Lesson 1 on the FN/FAL: 'Here's a rifle. Let's go outside and shoot it.'

Lesson 2 on the FN/FAL: 'Let's take our dirty rifles apart and clean them.'

There were no safety or other issues. Within a couple of weeks they were doing section attacks


----------



## Skysix

TacticalTea said:


> Foolhardy Russian sentences his squad mates to death:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593515224790974465


Have seen various versions of this clip. With the camera angle cuts and lack of footage (that I have seen) of the prone soldiers being deliberately shot (vs crossfire/instinctive aim rounds off intended target and ricochets) I call BS on the headline and assumption.

Anyone found the OP of the original claim of a war crime and tracked its origin? Where are the photos of the rest of the dead squad? I only see the shooter who fell back out of sunlight into the hut.

There are undoubtedly better video collators and analysers than me - however with a section at close range all edgy and onguard suddenly coming under fire, there are going to be triggers pulled instintively then aim corrected. That is WAR not a war crime. A war crime would be the deliberate targeted shooting of the surrendered. 

But then again, opinion of a leg not a lawyer.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593519581301276679


----------



## KevinB

Skysix said:


> Have seen various versions of this clip. With the camera angle cuts and lack of footage (that I have seen) of the prone soldiers being deliberately shot (vs crossfire/instinctive aim rounds off intended target and ricochets) I call BS on the headline and assumption.
> 
> Anyone found the OP of the original claim of a war crime and tracked its origin? Where are the photos of the rest of the dead squad? I only see the shooter who fell back out of sunlight into the hut.
> 
> There are undoubtedly better video collators and analysers than me - however with a section at close range all edgy and onguard suddenly coming under fire, there are going to be triggers pulled instintively then aim corrected. That is WAR not a war crime. A war crime would be the deliberate targeted shooting of the surrendered.
> 
> But then again, opinion of a leg not a lawyer.


The War Crime is actually the false surrender.


----------



## Skysix

daftandbarmy said:


> I know a guy who joined the RLI in the 70s, at the height of the Bush War. He had prior military service, but they put him in with all the new recruits who were mostly people from urban areas.
> 
> Lesson 1 on the FN/FAL: 'Here's a rifle. Let's go outside and shoot it.'
> 
> Lesson 2 on the FN/FAL: 'Let's take our dirty rifles apart and clean them.'
> 
> There were no safety or other issues. Within a couple of weeks they were doing section attacks


I fly with a guy who was an 8 year old at the time, who along with the other males in his family, defended his homestead with a FAL. Acquiring a sight picture and servicing a target is not rocket science. And all the CBT/DLN in the world won't make it so. It just keeps IT, weak instructors, paper pushers and bean counters happy.


----------



## TacticalTea

Skysix said:


> Have seen various versions of this clip. With the camera angle cuts and lack of footage (that I have seen) of the prone soldiers being deliberately shot (vs crossfire/instinctive aim rounds off intended target and ricochets) I call BS on the headline and assumption.
> 
> Anyone found the OP of the original claim of a war crime and tracked its origin? Where are the photos of the rest of the dead squad? I only see the shooter who fell back out of sunlight into the hut.
> 
> There are undoubtedly better video collators and analysers than me - however with a section at close range all edgy and onguard suddenly coming under fire, there are going to be triggers pulled instintively then aim corrected. That is WAR not a war crime. A war crime would be the deliberate targeted shooting of the surrendered.
> 
> But then again, opinion of a leg not a lawyer.


How does that make my post a troll?


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> A bit of porn for the tankees.  10 minutes of Gopro video from inside Russian  tanks.
> 
> Two companies?  of Russian tanks, fighting for ground 7 km from the end of the Donetsk airport runway.  Not much movement in 8 years.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yx3d6u




Further to...

Analysis from Forbes









						Russians GoPro’d A Tank Attack On Pervomaiske—It Didn’t Go Smoothly
					

Near Donetsk city, pro-Russian separatist fighters launched a tank attack on Ukrainian forces in the suburb of Pervomais’ke—and they decided to record it with drones and GoPro-style cameras. The result is certainly unique combat footage, if not exactly persuasive evidence of a military triumph.




					www.forbes.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

CBH99 said:


> Tell me again…WHY does it take us a month (almost the same timeframe) just to have recruits marching in a uniform they can wear properly, while able to properly handle a C7?


With all due respect to trainers and trainees in our system, we’re training soldiers who _may_ go into battle at some point, as opposed to UKR training troops who will be going into battle tout suite. One group has the luxury of “could be” as opposed to the other having “WILL” be - and soon.


----------



## Kirkhill

CBH99 said:


> Amazing what can be accomplished when there is a distinct sense of purpose present…
> 
> Tell me again…WHY does it take us a month (almost the same timeframe) just to have recruits marching in a uniform they can wear properly, while able to properly handle a C7?
> 
> (Rhetorical)



What would you do with them if they signed for three years but were trained in 5 weeks?


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> With all due respect to trainers and trainees in our system, we’re training soldiers who _may_ go into battle at some point, as opposed to UKR training troops who will be going into battle tout suite. One group has the luxury of “could be” as opposed to the other having “WILL” be - and soon.


Exactly, it's give them everything possible they need to survive in combat. Is drill needed? No, laws of armed conflict? Yes, shooting? Yes, how to write a memo? No

Cut the fluff out and give then only what they need to fight and survuce cause the reality is that some of the troops we are training aren't going to see their next birthday.


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> Exactly, it's give them everything possible they need to survive in combat. Is drill needed? No, laws of armed conflict? Yes, shooting? Yes, how to write a memo? No
> 
> Cut the fluff out and give then only what they need to fight and survuce cause the reality is that some of the troops we are training aren't going to see their next birthday.



So for the reservist?

5 weeks training on joining
Return to civilian life
Show up at armouries for lectures and powerpoints 
Use ranges when available
10 day refresher every summer
Reduce the number of refreshers with age.


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> So for the reservist?
> 
> 5 weeks training on joining
> Return to civilian life
> Show up at armouries for lectures and powerpoints
> Use ranges when available
> 10 day refresher every summer
> Reduce the number of refreshers with age.


What do you expect them to be doing -  that dictates the amount and time of refreshers needed.
  Not wanting to derail this thread perhaps it's best moved to a different thread.


----------



## KevinB

Skysix said:


> Have seen various versions of this clip. With the camera angle cuts and lack of footage (that I have seen) of the prone soldiers being deliberately shot (vs crossfire/instinctive aim rounds off intended target and ricochets) I call BS on the headline and assumption.
> 
> Anyone found the OP of the original claim of a war crime and tracked its origin? Where are the photos of the rest of the dead squad? I only see the shooter who fell back out of sunlight into the hut.
> 
> There are undoubtedly better video collators and analysers than me - however with a section at close range all edgy and onguard suddenly coming under fire, there are going to be triggers pulled instintively then aim corrected. That is WAR not a war crime. A war crime would be the deliberate targeted shooting of the surrendered.
> 
> But then again, opinion of a leg not a lawyer.





TacticalTea said:


> Foolhardy Russian sentences his squad mates to death:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593515224790974465



I think you where both agreeing - 
there is a larger section of the video - the videographer I think was the one shot by the Russian, but the PKM gunner overwatching I think got some of the intermediary RuAF personnel as well 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593708093044674560
 The only crime was the RuAF trying to bluff a surrender - and they paid the price.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> What do you expect them to be doing -  that dictates the amount and time of refreshers needed.
> Not wanting to derail this thread perhaps it's best moved to a different thread.



What does it take to keep them engaged? Motivated? Wanting to contribute?  In the Canadian context, where we can't seem to find reasons to keep them employed keeping them engaged seems equally important if not moreso.


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> What does it take to keep them engaged? Motivated? Wanting to contribute?  In the Canadian context, where we can't seem to find reasons to keep them employed keeping them engaged seems equally important if not moreso.


Yes but we are talking the Ukrainian context, these troops are literally going to be in the shit non stop for atleast a year or more depending in how this war goes. Unnecessary training that isn't needed for warfighting can be done after the war.


----------



## Skysix

TacticalTea said:


> How does that make my post a troll?


I seem to have misread your intent. It seemed, posted with no comment towards either bias, as if you were amplifying a dubious claim to push a Russian narrative. Apologies.


----------



## TacticalTea

Skysix said:


> I seem to have misread your intent. It seemed, posted with no comment towards either bias, as if you were amplifying a dubious claim to push a Russian narrative. Apologies.


All good. I thought ''Foolhardy Russian sentences his squad mates to death'' was explicit enough wrt what I thought of his actions and their consequences. I suppose it can be read differently.


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> Yes but we are talking the Ukrainian context, these troops are literally going to be in the shit non stop for atleast a year or more depending in how this war goes. Unnecessary training that isn't needed for warfighting can be done after the war.



My thought is to get all the "necessary" training done early in the career - ie during Basic - all the "unnecessary" training, and advanced training - can be added later, with as much as possible being done in lectures and webinars in the armouries.


----------



## Furniture

Kirkhill said:


> My thought is to get all the "necessary" training done early in the career - ie during Basic - all the "unnecessary" training, and advanced training - can be added later, with as much as possible being done in lectures and webinars in the armouries.


This would fit into one of the other 5,000,000,000 "fix the militia" threads.


----------



## Kirkhill

Furniture said:


> This would fit into one of the other 5,000,000,000 "fix the militia" threads.


Any one of which would improve the militia....

And some might even benefit the army.


----------



## brihard

TacticalTea said:


> Foolhardy Russian sentences his squad mates to death:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593515224790974465





Skysix said:


> Have seen various versions of this clip. With the camera angle cuts and lack of footage (that I have seen) of the prone soldiers being deliberately shot (vs crossfire/instinctive aim rounds off intended target and ricochets) I call BS on the headline and assumption.
> 
> Anyone found the OP of the original claim of a war crime and tracked its origin? Where are the photos of the rest of the dead squad? I only see the shooter who fell back out of sunlight into the hut.
> 
> There are undoubtedly better video collators and analysers than me - however with a section at close range all edgy and onguard suddenly coming under fire, there are going to be triggers pulled instintively then aim corrected. That is WAR not a war crime. A war crime would be the deliberate targeted shooting of the surrendered.
> 
> But then again, opinion of a leg not a lawyer.





KevinB said:


> The War Crime is actually the false surrender.




The obvious war crime here is called “perfidy”- or in the Rome Statute, “treacherously killing or wounding an enemy”.

The essence of this war crime is that a person abuses the laws of war, by causing an enemy to believe they were obligated to act humanely, such as accepting a surrender, or tending to a casualty. That belief is then treacherously used to wound or kill them. Pretending to surrender and then attacking by surprise is a perfect example; because the victims are compelled to act humanely, they’re tactically disadvantaged.

The moment of taking prisoners is one of the riskiest situations troops can face, for reasons seen here. It’s essential that the right to surrender is protected for all parties in a conflict, hence making this a crime.

It’s horrible that it ended the way it did. We don’t have video of the whole thing, but it looks like there was a prone machine gunner and several standing troops. They would not have known what was coming out behind the Russian who shot and would have reasonably perceived a thread from the other Russians given then one of them abused the circumstances of surrender to attack them (killing a Ukrainian, I believe). It’a not clear if all the probed out Russians were killed; certainly several were.


----------



## SeaKingTacco

That video is pretty high up on the ”fuck around/find out” quadrant.


----------



## Kirkhill

I wonder what the dynamics are like in a coerced army which operates with political officers and kills people who retreat.


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> I wonder what the dynamics are like in a coerced army which operates with political officers and kills people who retreat.


Red on Red 1.0

There are also an increasing number of fragged officers who could probably tell us (Red on Red 2.0)


----------



## GR66

KevinB said:


> What do you expect them to be doing -  that dictates the amount and time of refreshers needed.
> Not wanting to derail this thread perhaps it's best moved to a different thread.


You don't know how things work around here do you?


----------



## ueo

Kirkhill said:


> I wonder what the dynamics are like in a coerced army which operates with political officers and kills people who retreat.


CAF and lawyers?


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> What do you expect them to be doing -  that dictates the amount and time of refreshers needed.
> Not wanting to derail this thread perhaps it's best moved to a different thread.



Trying to accommodate Kevin - a return to Ukraine

A British forces appreciation of what might be happening on the Kinburn Peninsula.






And a private French take









						La péninsule de Kinburn, nouvelle étape de la contre-offensive après Kherson?
					

Le bruit court que l'armée de Kiev aurait déjà mis un pied sur la rive sud du Dniepr. Aucun doute. La reprise de Kherson par l'armée de Kiev, après des mois d'âpres combats puis une retraite plus ou moins ordonnée des forces du Kremlin décidée en plus haut lieu, est un nouveau...




					korii.slate.fr


----------



## The Bread Guy

Ukraine's President's latest 10-point "peace formula" (archived link if previous link doesn't work) ...


> ... The first is radiation and nuclear safety
> 
> (...)
> 
> The second challenge is food security.
> 
> (...)
> 
> The third is energy security.
> 
> (...)
> 
> The fourth challenge is the release of all prisoners and deportees.
> 
> (...)
> 
> The fifth – implementation of the UN Charter and restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and the world order.
> 
> (...)
> 
> The sixth challenge is withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities.
> 
> (...)
> 
> The seventh – justice.
> 
> (...)
> 
> The eighth challenge is ecocide, the need for immediate protection of environment.
> 
> (...)
> 
> The next - the ninth – is the prevention of escalation.
> 
> (...)
> 
> And the tenth – confirmation of the end of the war ...


... and his expectation that Canada pick up and run with at least one of the ten batons presented (archived link if previous link doesn't work) - highlights mine ...


> ... We emphasize on all of the elements of Russian aggression, and offer our partners to demolish all aspects of aggression together with us in order to provide security. That is something where each of our partners can show their leadership.
> 
> We have already succeeded in some things, for example, we extended the grain export initiative and offer a new humanitarian initiative – Grain From Ukraine to enhance food security.
> 
> In the same way, we can go step by step in other items of our Peace Formula.
> 
> I suggest you, dear Forum participants, to choose the possible leadership options for your countries. Each item of our Peace Formula has the proposals for particular solutions. Please choose which item you can help with.
> 
> *I believe that Canada, which strongly supports us, will also choose one of the Peace Formula items for itself and will show all the strength of its leadership ...*


We'll see ...

_OP edit to add missing element - with thanks to @brihard_


----------



## brihard

The Bread Guy said:


> Ukraine's President's latest 10-point "peace formula" (archived link if previous link doesn't work) ...
> 
> ... and his expectation that Canada pick up and run with at least one of the ten batons presented (archived link if previous link doesn't work) - highlights mine ...
> 
> We'll see ...


One of them is missing?


----------



## Kirkhill

More tankee stuff - from Kharkiv


----------



## Skysix

They seem to have a problem with smokers...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593954688474517505


----------



## Spencer100

brihard said:


> One of them is missing?


Canada picks option eleven!  None of the above


----------



## Kirkhill

Justin Bronk - Air War in Ukraine

Plea for America to keep doing what it is doing and a fascinating plea for Sweden to free up Gripens, designed for off-base operations by conscripts while carrying high tech weapons.  F16s are too frail for highway landings.  F18s might be good but are hard to come by.










						The Russian Air War and Ukrainian Requirements for Air Defence
					

Further Western support is needed to ensure that Kyiv can counter Moscow's updated approach to the air war in Ukraine.




					rusi.org
				












						Kinburn – the Indirect Approach
					

The Ukrainian liberation of Kherson has been yet another success on the side of the defenders in the war, though it is also easy to assume it will lead to something of a pause on the southern part …




					corporalfrisk.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Corporal Frisch on Kinburn and the Indirect Approach (Edit - Lanchester Again)










						Kinburn – the Indirect Approach
					

The Ukrainian liberation of Kherson has been yet another success on the side of the defenders in the war, though it is also easy to assume it will lead to something of a pause on the southern part …




					corporalfrisk.com


----------



## Kat Stevens

Skysix said:


> They seem to have a problem with smokers...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593954688474517505


Well, that looks expensive.


----------



## Skysix

Kat Stevens said:


> Well, that looks expensive.


Yup


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593951108476592129


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukrainians expressing optimism


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yzdmsa


----------



## brihard

Kirkhill said:


> Ukrainians expressing optimism
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yzdmsa


Not sure who was authorized to make a statement like that, but it’s utterly absurd. Do I think Ukraine can eventually retake Crimea with continued Western support? Yeah, probably. But there are several other things they’ll need to do first to set the conditions for that, and that’s not something they’ll achieve in six weeks.

When they’ve secured Zaporizhia Oblast and Mariupol, and can reliably protect the eastern flank of what would be a massive endeavour to move on Crimea, then perhaps it could start being a serious discussions- but frankly I think Crimea will be the last of Ukrainian territory to be liberated.

Crimea’s only got a 10km land bridge connecting it to Kherson Oblast. That’s the only way in for Ukraine that doesn’t involve forcing an opposed water crossing. It’s already fortified and defended and will only become more so. Other people here could much better wrap their heads around the challenges of the kind of broad frontal attack that would be necessary, but even I can see it would be an incredibly difficult endeavour.


----------



## Kirkhill

brihard said:


> Not sure who was authorized to make a statement like that, but it’s utterly absurd. Do I think Ukraine can eventually retake Crimea with continued Western support? Yeah, probably. But there are several other things they’ll need to do first to set the conditions for that, and that’s not something they’ll achieve in six weeks.
> 
> When they’ve secured Zaporizhia Oblast and Mariupol, and can reliably protect the eastern flank of what would be a massive endeavour to move on Crimea, then perhaps it could start being a serious discussions- but frankly I think Crimea will be the last of Ukrainian territory to be liberated.
> 
> Crimea’s only got a 10km land bridge connecting it to Kherson Oblast. That’s the only way in for Ukraine that doesn’t involve forcing an opposed water crossing. It’s already fortified and defended and will only become more so. Other people here could much better wrap their heads around the challenges of the kind of broad frontal attack that would be necessary, but even I can see it would be an incredibly difficult endeavour.




The linked article -

[IMG alt="Defense Ministry predicts Ukrainian forces be back in Crimea by end of December
"]https://static.ukrinform.com/photos/2021_01/thumb_files/630_360_1611858971-483.jpg[/IMG]
Defense Ministry predicts Ukrainian forces be back in Crimea by end of December​19.11.2022 16:28

Ukraine’s Defense Forces could be back in Crimea by the end of December, and the war with Russia will be over by the spring of 2023.

*Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Volodymyr Havrylov expressed such an opinion in an interview with **Sky News.*

“Ukrainian forces could be back in Crimea by the end of December and the entire war with Russia will be over by the spring,” Havrylov said.

He stressed the Ukraine would never stop fighting until victory and had even factored in the potential of a Russian nuclear strike. But, according to him, the probability of an atomic attack by Russia is low, as such a step “would be drama for everybody”.
"For everybody it will be just - God knows what scenario - but it [a tactical nuclear strike] is not a threat which will stop us from... continuing our war,” the deputy minister said.
In terms of the prospect for peace talks with the Kremlin, Havrylov said “they would only happen once Russian troops are ready to leave every inch of Ukraine,” including the Crimean Peninsula and a part of the territories in eastern Ukraine that have been held by Russian-backed separatists for the past eight years.
"There is a decision inside the society in Ukraine that we are going up to the end," Havrylov said.
"People paid a lot of blood, a lot of efforts to what we have already achieved and everybody knows that any delay or frozen conflict is only the continuation of this war against the existence of Ukraine as a nation,” he noted.
As Ukrinform reported, President Volodymyr Zelensky in a virtual speech to G20 leaders on November 15 outlined a ten-point peace plan to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.



			Checking your browser - reCAPTCHA


----------



## GR66

brihard said:


> Not sure who was authorized to make a statement like that, but it’s utterly absurd. Do I think Ukraine can eventually retake Crimea with continued Western support? Yeah, probably. But there are several other things they’ll need to do first to set the conditions for that, and that’s not something they’ll achieve in six weeks.
> 
> When they’ve secured Zaporizhia Oblast and Mariupol, and can reliably protect the eastern flank of what would be a massive endeavour to move on Crimea, then perhaps it could start being a serious discussions- but frankly I think Crimea will be the last of Ukrainian territory to be liberated.
> 
> Crimea’s only got a 10km land bridge connecting it to Kherson Oblast. That’s the only way in for Ukraine that doesn’t involve forcing an opposed water crossing. It’s already fortified and defended and will only become more so. Other people here could much better wrap their heads around the challenges of the kind of broad frontal attack that would be necessary, but even I can see it would be an incredibly difficult endeavour.


Could be a comment for Russian consumption.  Terrify the untrained conscripts being pushed into combat against an advancing foe?


----------



## brihard

Disappointing that someone that senior would say something that silly. That implies at least some meaningful military presence in Crimea. No way that happens that quick. It’s at least a couple distinct major offensives just to make it to the border, plus a major effort shoring up GLOC and restoring crossings across the Dnipro.


----------



## Kirkhill

Further to









						"Black Swan" in Russia may help Ukraine retake Crimea, minister predicts
					

Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Volodymyr Havrylov told Sky News: "We can step in Crimea for example by the end of December."




					www.newsweek.com
				












						Ukraine war will be over by end of spring, country's deputy defence minister predicts
					

The retired major general says his nation will never stop fighting until victory and even a Russian nuclear strike would not end the struggle to drive out invading Kremlin forces.




					news.sky.com


----------



## CBH99

For anybody interested in the Canadian vehicles initially purchased for Ukraine.  

I’m actually surprised so many of us had never heard of this company before - it really should be in the news, the country could use a morale boost these days.


----------



## Kirkhill

GR66 said:


> Could be a comment for Russian consumption.  Terrify the untrained conscripts being pushed into combat against an advancing foe?



It could indeed be to encourage those already on their third rearward relocation to keep on moving.

The Russians were originally reported as fortifying the East Bank.  Then they relocated 10 to 20 km inland.  Now they are relocating 60 km to the rear which puts them right up against Crimea.


----------



## Skysix

Interesting supposition. And it makes sense, both from a low-risk strategy for Russia perspective and from an extremely hard to counter or accomodate western perspective.

The only strategy I can think of that might work to counter it is giving Ukraine the means to end the war as soon ss possible. No limits on supply of western tech and weapons and the supply of contractors/instructors to optimise its use. Striking Russian territory should no longer be off the table. This will also preserve the volume of supplies remaining in western armouries to some extent and save lives in the long term by ending Putin's Genocidal war sooner.

Piecemeal support as a strategy has failed as evidenced by its restrictions "loosening" time and time again. The only way to end this Genocidal war is peace through superior firepower. Something the former Soviet states understood months ago and the west is still having a hard time comprehending. We (NATO) caved in to Putin's nuclear blackmail at the political level early on and have indirectly caused the deaths of hundreds of thousands through the prolonging of the fighting.


----------



## MilEME09

Russia has visually confirmed lost 40% of its active tank forces.


----------



## Skysix

MilEME09 said:


> Russia has visually confirmed lost 40% of its active tank forces.
> 
> View attachment 75026


Yeah - but they still have thousands in storage. Granted in crappy shape most likely...


----------



## Skysix

(not) seen recently in St. Petersburg


----------



## Colin Parkinson

brihard said:


> Disappointing that someone that senior would say something that silly. That implies at least some meaningful military presence in Crimea. No way that happens that quick. It’s at least a couple distinct major offensives just to make it to the border, plus a major effort shoring up GLOC and restoring crossings across the Dnipro.


Likely a propaganda shaping op, seeing if they can make an economic impact by creating uncertainty and forcing Russia to deploy more troops there, while they attack elsewhere.


----------



## Maxman1

Kirkhill said:


> Ukrainians expressing optimism
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yzdmsa



I guess what he's really saying is:


----------



## Maxman1

Skysix said:


> They seem to have a problem with smokers...
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593954688474517505


----------



## KevinB

brihard said:


> Disappointing that someone that senior would say something that silly. That implies at least some meaningful military presence in Crimea. No way that happens that quick. It’s at least a couple distinct major offensives just to make it to the border, plus a major effort shoring up GLOC and restoring crossings across the Dnipro.


Well they did say they where going to take Kherson by the fall…


----------



## Good2Golf

That’s a heck of a Ker-o-sun heater…


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> Well they did say they where going to take Kherson by the fall…


That was a master class in psyops, which enabled the Kharkiv offensive that liberated Izyum and Lyman. Can they do it again? Maybe but it will be harder. The biggest strategic goal the UA has right now is Svatove. Why you ask? If they take Svatove, the Ukrainian armys artillery forces will be able to interdict 4 of the 5 rail lines that supply Russian forces in the south. This will be strain on Russian forces trying to hold out.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Destroyed Russians S-300's 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1594389451085467648


----------



## Skysix

10,000m² of missile fragments in only 1 of several evidence storage areas in Kharkiv


----------



## Spencer100

CBH99 said:


> For anybody interested in the Canadian vehicles initially purchased for Ukraine.
> 
> I’m actually surprised so many of us had never heard of this company before - it really should be in the news, the country could use a morale boost these days.


Have heard of them and the brother/cousin (angry ex employees)  companies too.   

Up till now they have kept a very low profile on purpose.  Some of the sale history is "interesting"  This and most canadian governments would throw them under the bus at a drop of the hat.


----------



## CBH99

Spencer100 said:


> Have heard of them and the brother/cousin (angry ex employees)  companies too.
> 
> Up till now they have kept a very low profile on purpose.  Some of the sale history is "interesting"  This and most canadian governments would throw them under the bus at a drop of the hat.


I suppose keeping a low profile makes sense given the absurdly ignorant/woke crowd in Ottawa. 

We wouldn’t even sell the Philippines 15 Bell 412’s without the mandatory BS of “we want guarantees that these helicopters, being procured for both the military & national police, will _not_ be armed or used to cause harm to any people…”

As much as I genuinely want international customers for Canadian made products such as these, I don’t blame them at all for throwing their hands up & saying “Screw it, we’ll just buy helicopters from someone else…”

I could see them doing the same to this company, had the government not gone into business with them, and them making us look good. 

(Maybe having something like this piece in the Canadian mainstream media would actually protect them from small minded & petty Canadian governments.)

(What better time to generate a positive public profile in this industry than now?  And employing refugees from the conflict at that)


----------



## daftandbarmy

A little Hip Hop to kick off the week...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1594645981844439040


----------



## suffolkowner

As Russian supplies continue to get depleted support for Ukraine goes on and on


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1594792842412818433

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1594720127651569665

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1594847644169523208
It seems like Putins intent is the utter destruction of Russia as a military power


----------



## rmc_wannabe

So.... where in the hell was this Senator platform when the TAPV monstrosity was being developed?


----------



## Furniture

rmc_wannabe said:


> So.... where in the hell was this Senator platform when the TAPV monstrosity was being developed?


Likely doesn't have the mine/IED resistance needed for the last war.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Furniture said:


> Likely doesn't have the mine/IED resistance needed for the last war.


If the last war taught us anything, it's that the more "mine/IED resistant" you make the vehicle, the slower the column moves, the more time the trigger man gets to pick a target of opportunity. Not to mention the fact the enemy just decides to make the boom bigger until your IED resistant vehicle is no longer IED resistant.

Even if these were strictly domestic platforms for training Convoy drills, mounted recce, mounted offensive Ops, etc.... it would be money well spent.


----------



## Kirkhill

rmc_wannabe said:


> If the last war taught us anything, it's that the more "mine/IED resistant" you make the vehicle, the slower the column moves, the more time the trigger man gets to pick a target of opportunity. Not to mention the fact the enemy just decides to make the boom bigger until your IED resistant vehicle is no longer IED resistant.
> 
> Even if these were strictly domestic platforms for training Convoy drills, mounted recce, mounted offensive Ops, etc.... it would be money well spent.



Humber Pig.....


----------



## MilEME09

rmc_wannabe said:


> So.... where in the hell was this Senator platform when the TAPV monstrosity was being developed?


One could hope if they preform well, they could land a domestic contract


----------



## Maxman1

Hopefully we can take note of how the Senator platform performs, not only in armour protection and mine resistance but also on and off road capabilities.


----------



## Maxman1

rmc_wannabe said:


> So.... where in the hell was this Senator platform when the TAPV monstrosity was being developed?



I don't think it was around in the 60s.


----------



## Kirkhill

Non-activity on the Kinburn



> The Kherson counteroffensive entered a new chapter as Ukraine's forces launched a "silent" assault on the strategic Kinburn Spit. Kyiv forces have engaged amphibious guerrilla tactics against a weak point in Russia's defensive positions on the Dnipro River in south Ukraine.
> 
> The sandy peninsula once popular with ecotourism lovers on the coast of the Black Sea allows for the control of entrance to the Dnipro and the ports of Kherson and Mykolaiv.
> 
> A spokeswoman for Ukraine's military confirmed mounting speculation over operations on the left bank of the Dnipro after Russia fled Kherson city earlier this month.
> 
> “The enemy there pulls up forces from the temporarily occupied territory, so they can afford to restore their reserves even after we inflict damage,” Captain Natalia Humeniuk said.
> 
> “Nevertheless, we continue our combat work. As soon as the results are available, we will report on it. For now, this military operation is in silent mode."











						Ukraine-Russia war: Putin launches massive nuclear-powered icebreaker in race to control the Arctic
					

Vladimir Putin on Tuesday oversaw the launch of a nuclear-powered icebreaker as he vowed to control the Arctic.




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## Good2Golf

suffolkowner said:


> It seems like Putins intent is the utter destruction of Russia as a military power


🤔…Putin isn’t a Manchurian plant by the CIA, is he?


----------



## Kirkhill

The HUMVEE Charge explained in detail.

This is a video by the HUMVEE gunner that got passed AT4s when he asked for Ammo.

He does a good job of describing his situation, his actions and the role of his unit.

Worthwhile watching all 13 minutes of it.


----------



## Kirkhill

More on the Kinburn​​


> Ukraine launches 'silent' amphibious assault on strategic Black Sea peninsula​Control of the Kinburn Spit allows for dominance of the Dnipro river entrance and the ports of Kherson and Mykolaiv
> 
> ByJoe Barnes, BRUSSELS CORRESPONDENT22 November 2022 • 2:58pm
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A fisherman sails his boat on the Dnipro River as smoke rises from an oil reserve in Kherson CREDIT: BULENT KILIC/AFP/Getty Images
> Ukraine’s military has launched a "silent" assault on the strategic Kinburn Spit as its Kherson counteroffensive enters a new phase.
> "The enemy there pulls up forces from the temporarily occupied territory, so they can afford to restore their reserves even after we inflict damage," Captain Natalia Humeniuk, a military spokeswoman, said.
> "Nevertheless, we continue our combat work. As soon as the results are available, we will report on it. For now, this military operation is in silent mode."
> The Kinburn Spit is a small, sandy peninsula formed where the Dnipro River meets the Black Sea.
> 
> The strip of land, which is strategically important because it allows control of Dnipro and the ports of Kherson and Mykolaiv, is now the last piece of land occupied by the Russians in the Mykolaiv region.
> Before the war it was popular with ecological tourists, but has since been used by Russian forces to conduct routine artillery and missile strikes on Ukrainian-held territories.
> It was used by Moscow to target tug boats and grain barges operating in the mouth of the Dnipro River, according to Ukraine's military.
> Ukraine's southern operational command has previously described the area as the "focus of the enemy's life force, weapons and equipment".
> Last week, Kyiv's forces confirmed the destruction of a Russian "base point" on the Kinburn Spit, as the area became a "zone of active military operations".
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In a broadcast on Ukrainian television, Captain Humeniuk said Russia's hold on the region was "not powerful enough to withstand a large concentration of troops".
> She also claimed the stormy weather in the area would give Ukraine the advantage in any battle over the sandy outcrop.
> "At these times, it is usually very stormy there. And it is impossible to hold on, even to just stand in one spot. Very powerful winds, storms, even nature washes away and drains the enemy from this land," she said.
> Western military analysts claim recapturing the peninsula would give Ukraine's forces a staging post for future operations on the left bank of the Dnipro, where Russia withdrew its forces after ceding control of the southern city of Kherson.
> 
> The Institute for the Study of War, a US-based think-tank, said: "Control of the Kinburn Spit would allow Ukrainian forces to relieve Russian strikes on the Ukrainian-controlled Black Sea coast, increase naval activity in the area, and conduct potential operations to cross to the left (east) bank in Kherson Oblast under significantly less Russian artillery fire compared to a crossing of the Dnipro River."












						Ukraine launches 'silent' amphibious assault on strategic Black Sea peninsula
					

Control of the Kinburn Spit allows for dominance of the Dnipro river entrance and the ports of Kherson and Mykolaiv




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## Kirkhill

Russian weather report from Julia Davis

The weathercock is swinging.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1594915216026112000

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1594408064337301504

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1594529208650317824


----------



## Skysix

Translation of Russia's manual on how to be a soldier. Hoew effective would a sr NCO or jr officer be that had to buy their own thermal imager, NVG, laser rangefinder  binoculars, batteries and chargers for all of the above...


----------



## suffolkowner

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1595130495012306944
I guess Turkey is confirming that they have supplied Ukraine with the missiles/MLRS


----------



## Skysix

A couple of points of view:

Aussies have no sense of respect for those in power ....  Excellent hour long historical primer on the Russian viewpoint and its absurdities. (The "Woke America" commercial is priceless)






And an 11 min grunt level assessment of Ukrainian self identity that was as badly missed by 5Eyes as WMD in Iraq...


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> Translation of Russia's manual on how to be a soldier. Hoew effective would a sr NCO or jr officer be that had to buy their own thermal imager, NVG, laser rangefinder  binoculars, batteries and chargers for all of the above...



Thanks for posting that Skysix.

I don't know where to start.  The Russians are trying to train an entire army, from team to corps on the fly, with no sense of mission command, no NCO corps and a officers expected to buy anything that requires a battery, as well as the batteries.

Radios, binoculars, range finders, lasers, night vision, and, as the manual says, all the other new gadgets.  To carry all this gear the combat leader is to ditch everything but his rifle with two mags and two grenades.

It has to be listened to .....


----------



## MilEME09

I can't believe this is true, seakinngs to Ukraine.....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1595504553142910976


----------



## TacticalTea

MilEME09 said:


> I can't believe this is true, seakinngs to Ukraine.....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1595504553142910976











						Britain sending helicopters to Ukraine for first time - Ben Wallace
					

Three former Sea King helicopters will be provided and the first has already arrived, the BBC understands.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## Skysix

Replace the words Nazi and Germany with Ruscist and Russia and this speech could almost have been given on  11/11 this year. The current philosophical war is between autocratic fascism and rules based democracy 

"The Nazi masters of Germany have made it clear that they intend not only to dominate all life and thought in their own country, but also to enslave the whole of Europe, and then to use the resources of Europe to dominate the rest of the world. It was only three weeks ago that their leader stated this: "There are two worlds that stand opposed to each other." And then in defiant reply to his opponents he said this: "Others are correct when they say: 'With this world we cannot ever reconcile ourselves.''' I can beat any other power in the world." So said the leader of the Nazis.

In other words, the Axis not merely admits but the Axis proclaims that there can be no ultimate peace between their philosophy -- their philosophy of government -- and our philosophy of government. In view of the nature of this undeniable threat, it can be asserted, properly and categorically, that the United States has no right or reason to encourage talk of peace until the day shall come when there is a clear intention on the part of the aggressor nations to abandon all thought of dominating or conquering the world."






						American Rhetoric: Franklin Delano Roosevelt - "The Arsenal of Democracy"
					

Full text and audio mp3 of Franklin Delano Roosevelt's "The Arsenal of Democracy" Address



					www.americanrhetoric.com


----------



## Skysix

Another well researched Australian blog piece on what we could be doing to end the bloodshed sooner. 

BLUF Sweden sells Gripen just before the final ratification (Turkey) is signed and it officially becomes part of NATO and non-NATO operators of the F16 sends them and missiles as a heavy squadron of formed (including ground support etc) volunteer  "Flying Tigers" from all over to fly for Ukraine. Backfill to donating countries from USA. (A reconstituted squadron of recently retired and as yet not rewinged A10 sold as surplus to one of the Red Air contractors then contracted as above by Ukraine wouldn't hurt either - Russia has Wagner pilots.....)


----------



## Retired AF Guy

suffolkowner said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1595130495012306944
> I guess Turkey is confirming that they have supplied Ukraine with the missiles/MLRS


And reportedly already in action:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1595150005333299202


----------



## lenaitch

MilEME09 said:


> I can't believe this is true, seakinngs to Ukraine.....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1595504553142910976


I'm guessing theirs are newer than ours (were).


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> I can't believe this is true, seakinngs to Ukraine.....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1595504553142910976


As a loitering munition?


----------



## dimsum

brihard said:


> As a loitering munition?


With the stuff probably falling from it, a cluster bomb.


----------



## Kat Stevens

Less an aircraft, and more thousands of parts all flying in close formation.


----------



## Kirkhill

More on the Kinburn - possibility the Ukrainians are not just mounting raids but have a lodgement?​​Ukrainian Commandos Have Made an Amphibious Landing On The Kinburn Spit​David Axe
Forbes Staff
I write about ships, planes, tanks, drones, missiles and satellites.
New! Follow this author to stay notified about their latest stories.  Got it!
Follow
5
New! Click on the conversation bubble to join the conversation  Got it!
Nov 23, 2022,01:53pm EST




A damaged Russian position, reportedly on the Kinburn Peninsula.
VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
It’s official: Ukrainian commandos riding in small boats have infiltrated the Kinburn Spit, a three-mile finger of sand and scrub curling across the mouth of the Dnipro River west of Kherson, the southern port city that Ukrainian forces liberated from its Russian occupiers earlier this month.



In seizing the spit and the adjacent Kinburn Peninsula, the Ukrainians would flank the defensive positions the Russians are building on their side of the Dnipro River. The Kinburn operation could be the first phase of a wider Ukrainian offensive targeting Russian forces on the left bank of the Dnipro.

There are other benefits. Whoever controls the Kinburn Spit controls the mouth of Dnipro and can dictate who sails ships from Kherson and nearby Mykolaiv into the Black Sea. Liberating the spit helps to liberate Mykolaiv and Kherson sea trade.

There were reasons to believe the Ukrainian military would pause and reconsolidate after liberating Kherson and its pre-war population of 300,000 on Nov. 11. The Kherson campaign was a hard one. Ukrainian artillery spent months bombarding Russian supply lines in and around the city before the tank and infantry brigades attacked starting in late August.

Kherson Oblast mostly is wide open farmland, crisscrossed by rivers, streams and canals. It’s unhappy terrain for the crews of tanks and other vehicles, who must advance in the open in full sight of artillery spotters and gunship pilots. We don’t know for sure how many Ukrainians died liberating northern Kherson Oblast and Kherson city. Potentially thousands.

The Russian army in Kherson Oblast is badly damaged. The Ukrainian army in the oblast might be only slightly less afflicted. But rather than halt for a much-deserved rest along the right bank of the Dnipro, on the southern edge of Kherson city, the Ukrainians promptly pivoted right, organized a small amphibious operation and landed special operations forces on the Kinburn Spit.
There were rumors of a Ukrainian landing as early as Nov. 14, three days after the liberation of Kherson. Videos circulated online depicting Ukrainian commandos in rigid-hull inflatable boats speeding across what appeared to the mouth of the Dnipro.

The U.K. Defense Ministry just a week later concluded that Ukrainian forces were in control of the three-mile spit. The same day, the Ukrainian military’s southern command alluded to a Kinburn operation. Two days after that, there was clear photographic evidence of Ukrainian troops on the spit.




The Ukrainian landing ship 'Yuri Olefirenko' before the current war.
UKRAINIAN NAVY PHOTO
It’s unclear how far along the adjacent peninsula the Ukrainians have advanced—and how far they _intend_ to advance for now. Natalia Humenyuk, a southern command spokesperson, urged Ukrainians to stay silent about the Kinburn operation.
Ukraine’s special operations forces are some of the best in the world. But the command had just a thousand people on the day back in late February when Russia widened its war on Ukraine. While Kyiv since then surely has expanded its special operations command, it still is a small force—and lightly armed.
The narrow, undeveloped Kinburn Spit is good terrain for fast-moving light infantry riding in small boats, but the adjacent peninsula—and, farther east, the open farmland of southern Kherson Oblast—might favor heavier forces.

If Ukraine’s aim is to liberate some or all of the Kinburn Peninsula in order to ease sea traffic between the Black Sea and the ports of Kherson and Mykolaiv, the commandos might be able to handle the operation on their own. But if Ukrainian commanders aim to use the Kinburn op to flank the Russian mechanized brigades on the Dnipro’s left bank, they might need to land heavier forces on the peninsula.
That’s easier said than done. The Ukrainian armed forces have built up a sizable force of small boats for patrolling the Dnipro and conducting riverine raids. These boats cannot lift a mechanized battalion.
If there’s a wild card, it might be the 240-foot amphibious vessel _Yuri Olefirenko_, apparently the Ukrainian navy’s last surviving big ship. In October, video circulated online reportedly depicting the aging _Yuri Olefirenko _firing rockets at Russian forces on or near the Kinburn Spit.
If _Yuri Olefirenko _indeed still is operational and operating somewhere around Kherson, she might be in a position to move heavier forces to Kinburn. That could make the peninsula a viable starting point for a flanking maneuver targeting the Dnipro’s left bank.










						Ukrainian Commandos Have Made an Amphibious Landing On The Kinburn Spit
					

In seizing the spit and the adjacent Kinburn Peninsula, the Ukrainians would flank the defensive positions the Russians are building on their side of the Dnipro River.




					www.forbes.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> More on the Kinburn - possibility the Ukrainians are not just mounting raids but have a lodgement?​​Ukrainian Commandos Have Made an Amphibious Landing On The Kinburn Spit​David Axe
> Forbes Staff
> I write about ships, planes, tanks, drones, missiles and satellites.
> New! Follow this author to stay notified about their latest stories.  Got it!
> Follow
> 5
> New! Click on the conversation bubble to join the conversation  Got it!
> Nov 23, 2022,01:53pm EST
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A damaged Russian position, reportedly on the Kinburn Peninsula.
> VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
> It’s official: Ukrainian commandos riding in small boats have infiltrated the Kinburn Spit, a three-mile finger of sand and scrub curling across the mouth of the Dnipro River west of Kherson, the southern port city that Ukrainian forces liberated from its Russian occupiers earlier this month.
> 
> 
> 
> In seizing the spit and the adjacent Kinburn Peninsula, the Ukrainians would flank the defensive positions the Russians are building on their side of the Dnipro River. The Kinburn operation could be the first phase of a wider Ukrainian offensive targeting Russian forces on the left bank of the Dnipro.
> 
> There are other benefits. Whoever controls the Kinburn Spit controls the mouth of Dnipro and can dictate who sails ships from Kherson and nearby Mykolaiv into the Black Sea. Liberating the spit helps to liberate Mykolaiv and Kherson sea trade.
> 
> There were reasons to believe the Ukrainian military would pause and reconsolidate after liberating Kherson and its pre-war population of 300,000 on Nov. 11. The Kherson campaign was a hard one. Ukrainian artillery spent months bombarding Russian supply lines in and around the city before the tank and infantry brigades attacked starting in late August.
> 
> Kherson Oblast mostly is wide open farmland, crisscrossed by rivers, streams and canals. It’s unhappy terrain for the crews of tanks and other vehicles, who must advance in the open in full sight of artillery spotters and gunship pilots. We don’t know for sure how many Ukrainians died liberating northern Kherson Oblast and Kherson city. Potentially thousands.
> 
> The Russian army in Kherson Oblast is badly damaged. The Ukrainian army in the oblast might be only slightly less afflicted. But rather than halt for a much-deserved rest along the right bank of the Dnipro, on the southern edge of Kherson city, the Ukrainians promptly pivoted right, organized a small amphibious operation and landed special operations forces on the Kinburn Spit.
> There were rumors of a Ukrainian landing as early as Nov. 14, three days after the liberation of Kherson. Videos circulated online depicting Ukrainian commandos in rigid-hull inflatable boats speeding across what appeared to the mouth of the Dnipro.
> 
> The U.K. Defense Ministry just a week later concluded that Ukrainian forces were in control of the three-mile spit. The same day, the Ukrainian military’s southern command alluded to a Kinburn operation. Two days after that, there was clear photographic evidence of Ukrainian troops on the spit.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Ukrainian landing ship 'Yuri Olefirenko' before the current war.
> UKRAINIAN NAVY PHOTO
> It’s unclear how far along the adjacent peninsula the Ukrainians have advanced—and how far they _intend_ to advance for now. Natalia Humenyuk, a southern command spokesperson, urged Ukrainians to stay silent about the Kinburn operation.
> Ukraine’s special operations forces are some of the best in the world. But the command had just a thousand people on the day back in late February when Russia widened its war on Ukraine. While Kyiv since then surely has expanded its special operations command, it still is a small force—and lightly armed.
> The narrow, undeveloped Kinburn Spit is good terrain for fast-moving light infantry riding in small boats, but the adjacent peninsula—and, farther east, the open farmland of southern Kherson Oblast—might favor heavier forces.
> 
> If Ukraine’s aim is to liberate some or all of the Kinburn Peninsula in order to ease sea traffic between the Black Sea and the ports of Kherson and Mykolaiv, the commandos might be able to handle the operation on their own. But if Ukrainian commanders aim to use the Kinburn op to flank the Russian mechanized brigades on the Dnipro’s left bank, they might need to land heavier forces on the peninsula.
> That’s easier said than done. The Ukrainian armed forces have built up a sizable force of small boats for patrolling the Dnipro and conducting riverine raids. These boats cannot lift a mechanized battalion.
> If there’s a wild card, it might be the 240-foot amphibious vessel _Yuri Olefirenko_, apparently the Ukrainian navy’s last surviving big ship. In October, video circulated online reportedly depicting the aging _Yuri Olefirenko _firing rockets at Russian forces on or near the Kinburn Spit.
> If _Yuri Olefirenko _indeed still is operational and operating somewhere around Kherson, she might be in a position to move heavier forces to Kinburn. That could make the peninsula a viable starting point for a flanking maneuver targeting the Dnipro’s left bank.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian Commandos Have Made an Amphibious Landing On The Kinburn Spit
> 
> 
> In seizing the spit and the adjacent Kinburn Peninsula, the Ukrainians would flank the defensive positions the Russians are building on their side of the Dnipro River.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.forbes.com



Absurd... 

No modern military needs Commando Forces... right?


----------



## RangerRay

The ISW Ukraine map still shows no change on Kinburn. 









						Interactive Map: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine
					

This interactive map complements the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW daily produces with high-fidelity.




					storymaps.arcgis.com


----------



## MilEME09

RangerRay said:


> The ISW Ukraine map still shows no change on Kinburn.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Interactive Map: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine
> 
> 
> This interactive map complements the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW daily produces with high-fidelity.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> storymaps.arcgis.com


Yeah there has been way to much back and forth about this, I am betting SoF raids. That's about it


----------



## KevinB

RangerRay said:


> The ISW Ukraine map still shows no change on Kinburn.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Interactive Map: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine
> 
> 
> This interactive map complements the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW daily produces with high-fidelity.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> storymaps.arcgis.com


Most OS Maps are 48Plus hours out of date.  

Some still have eliminated (or effectively eliminated) formations on the map that ceases to exist a week ago.


----------



## Skysix

The fact that it is being discussed is probably deliberate maskirovka. The last time they said they were going to attack Kerson then used that chatter to fix troops there and enable breakthroughs in the north. So.... Lets do that again assuming that the Russians will conclude that they are deliberately allowing the information out there to once again fix them in defensive positions near Kerson so they can once again go after logistics hubs in the north.

But crafty as the "Orcs" are they see right through this simple plan so this time will move units north to be ready and surprise/defeat the simple "Hohols" - a strategy that nicely proves the wisdom of high command already shifting combat power northwards.

Psych!

Instead while they reconstitute/refresh and shift units and capabilities around heavy SF and light infantry probing raids by land and sea ostensibly fixing some Russians in place but just as likely battlefield recce and targeting for the new MLRS and locating a defensible/suppliable place for a FOB from which to continue pressure on Crimea (rather than the obvious rolling down the East bank with a combined arms force defensive line by defensive line in another meatgrinder)

Controlling the river mouth and in range of Sevastopol would be the goal as part of the next step of setting conditions for the spring. 

Out of curiosity how far south does the Dneiper freeze over, by when, to what ice strength, and could that be reinforced 'ice road' style and used as a land bridge in Feb? Met a lot of Ukrainian Canadians in the NWT and northern Prairies familiar with that type of construction...


----------



## FJAG

KevinB said:


> Most OS Maps are 48Plus hours out of date.
> 
> Some still have eliminated (or effectively eliminated) formations on the map that ceases to exist a week ago.


That's still bloody amazing all things considered. When have we ever seen this much or this detailed OS information about an ongoing conflict?

🍻


----------



## KevinB

FJAG said:


> That's still bloody amazing all things considered. When have we ever seen this much or this detailed OS information about an ongoing conflict?
> 
> 🍻


Totally agreed.  The Open Source Intelligence world has been remarkable in this conflict.  
 Some of it to a fairly worrying aspect from an OPSEC standpoint. 

     I’ve also noticed that some of the commercial ‘real-time’ geospatial sources are now delaying updated satellite footage by 24hr or more.  So clearly some of the host governments are leaning on them to delay data release in some cases which makes OSI tougher.


----------



## suffolkowner

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1595382982881300481





						Visual confirmed losses
					

Visual confirmed losses in Russia-Ukraine war 2022



					vizoryx.vercel.app
				




on open source losses, looks like Oryx has some work to do to catch up on Russian equipment losses. How do they or can they identify individual pieces of equipment in a yard though?


----------



## KevinB

suffolkowner said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1595382982881300481
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Visual confirmed losses
> 
> 
> Visual confirmed losses in Russia-Ukraine war 2022
> 
> 
> 
> vizoryx.vercel.app
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> on open source losses, looks like Oryx has some work to do to catch up on Russian equipment losses. How do they or can they identify individual pieces of equipment in a yard though?


Depending on the resolution of the images, and what sort of software they have it can be fairly easy with image comparison software - or a painstakingly manual input into a database then sifting out multiple entries.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Winding up for a right hook....


Ukraine launches assault to gain strategic foothold on occupied side of Dnipro river​
Control of the Kinburn Spit allows for dominance of the Dnipro river entrance and the ports of Kherson and Mykolaiv

Ukraine’s military has launched a “silent” assault on the strategic Kinburn Spit as its Kherson counteroffensive enters a new phase.

Captain Natalia Humeniuk, a spokesperson for the southern command of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, on Tuesday said the operation to liberate the small, sandy peninsula was underway amid reports it had already been recaptured by Ukrainian forces.

“The most important thing is that the operation continues, and we continue our fight against the enemy,” she said.

The Kinburn Spit is a small strip of land formed where the Dnipro River meets the Black Sea.

The outcrop is strategically important because it gives whoever holds it control over the entrance to the Dnipro river, which bisects Ukraine, as well as the ports of Kherson and Mykolaiv.

Vitalii Kim, Mkyolaiv’s governor, said three settlements on the peninsula needed to be liberated before his region is entirely freed from Russia.

Before the war, the spit was popular with tourists but has since been used by Russian forces to conduct routine artillery and missile strikes on Ukrainian-held territories.

It was used by Moscow to target tug boats and grain barges operating in the mouth of the Dnipro River, according to Ukraine’s military.

Ukraine’s southern operational command has previously described the area as the “focus of the enemy’s life force, weapons and equipment”.

Images have been shared on social media appearing to show Ukrainian troops operating in the Dnipro, suggesting they are launching amphibious assaults on the area.

On Tuesday she claimed the storming conditions around the peninsula had prevented Russian forces from gaining a foothold on the Kinburn Spit.

“The sea helps us. The enemy cannot gain a foothold there because the Ukrainian Armed Forces inflict damage on the enemy’s points,” she added.

Western military analysts claim recapturing the peninsula would give Ukraine’s forces a staging post for future operations on the left bank of the Dnipro, where Russia withdrew its forces after ceding control of the southern city of Kherson.

The Institute for the Study of War, a US-based think-tank, said: “Control of the Kinburn Spit would allow Ukrainian forces to relieve Russian strikes on the Ukrainian-controlled Black Sea coast, increase naval activity in the area, and conduct potential operations to cross to the left (east) bank in Kherson Oblast under significantly less Russian artillery fire compared to a crossing of the Dnipro River.”

Meanwhile, Russia started a mobilisation drive in occupied Crimea amid mounting fears Ukraine could advance on the region it illegally annexed in 2014.

Ukraine’s military reported that men in Crimea have received mobilisation papers despite Russian president Vladimir Putin ordering an end to mobilisation in the rest of the country.

“In Crimea, a covert mobilisation to bolster the ranks of occupying forces is ongoing,” it said.

Analysts have said that the Kremlin’s call-up drive has largely been supplied by Russia’s far-flung provinces.

Sergey Melikov, the governor of Dagestan, on Tuesday weighed into the debate with a rare public criticism of the mobilisation, saying on a Telegram video that it was shameful that top Kremlin officials had not sent their sons to fight in Ukraine in a war that they had said was vital to win for Russia’s survival.

Kremlin-installed authorities in Crimea said the peninsula came under attack by drones on Tuesday.

Mikhail Razvozhayev, the governor of the Sevastopol administrative region, said two drones were shot down and urged residents to “remain calm”.

Crimea’s Moscow-appointed governor said last week that Russia’s defences were being strengthened there as Kyiv’s forces continued to reclaim territory in neighbouring Kherson.









						Ukraine launches assault to gain strategic foothold on occupied side of Dnipro river
					

Control of the Kinburn Spit allows for dominance of the Dnipro river entrance and the ports of Kherson and Mykolaiv




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## MilEME09

It would appear the Russians of all people are not prepared for winter,


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1595924661342294019


----------



## Retired AF Guy

MilEME09 said:


> It would appear the Russians of all people are not prepared for winter,
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1595924661342294019


I thougt Mother Winter was a Russian ally?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Retired AF Guy said:


> I thougt Mother Winter was a Russian ally?


Only when the Russians are the ones prepared for her. 

I'm certain none of these conscripts were well versed in cold weather survival. A slow and miserable death for nothing.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

daftandbarmy said:


> Winding up for a right hook....
> 
> 
> Ukraine launches assault to gain strategic foothold on occupied side of Dnipro river​
> Control of the Kinburn Spit allows for dominance of the Dnipro river entrance and the ports of Kherson and Mykolaiv
> 
> Ukraine’s military has launched a “silent” assault on the strategic Kinburn Spit as its Kherson counteroffensive enters a new phase.
> 
> Captain Natalia Humeniuk, a spokesperson for the southern command of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, on Tuesday said the operation to liberate the small, sandy peninsula was underway amid reports it had already been recaptured by Ukrainian forces.
> 
> “The most important thing is that the operation continues, and we continue our fight against the enemy,” she said.
> 
> The Kinburn Spit is a small strip of land formed where the Dnipro River meets the Black Sea.
> 
> The outcrop is strategically important because it gives whoever holds it control over the entrance to the Dnipro river, which bisects Ukraine, as well as the ports of Kherson and Mykolaiv.
> 
> Vitalii Kim, Mkyolaiv’s governor, said three settlements on the peninsula needed to be liberated before his region is entirely freed from Russia.
> 
> Before the war, the spit was popular with tourists but has since been used by Russian forces to conduct routine artillery and missile strikes on Ukrainian-held territories.
> 
> It was used by Moscow to target tug boats and grain barges operating in the mouth of the Dnipro River, according to Ukraine’s military.
> 
> Ukraine’s southern operational command has previously described the area as the “focus of the enemy’s life force, weapons and equipment”.
> 
> Images have been shared on social media appearing to show Ukrainian troops operating in the Dnipro, suggesting they are launching amphibious assaults on the area.
> 
> On Tuesday she claimed the storming conditions around the peninsula had prevented Russian forces from gaining a foothold on the Kinburn Spit.
> 
> “The sea helps us. The enemy cannot gain a foothold there because the Ukrainian Armed Forces inflict damage on the enemy’s points,” she added.
> 
> Western military analysts claim recapturing the peninsula would give Ukraine’s forces a staging post for future operations on the left bank of the Dnipro, where Russia withdrew its forces after ceding control of the southern city of Kherson.
> 
> The Institute for the Study of War, a US-based think-tank, said: “Control of the Kinburn Spit would allow Ukrainian forces to relieve Russian strikes on the Ukrainian-controlled Black Sea coast, increase naval activity in the area, and conduct potential operations to cross to the left (east) bank in Kherson Oblast under significantly less Russian artillery fire compared to a crossing of the Dnipro River.”
> 
> Meanwhile, Russia started a mobilisation drive in occupied Crimea amid mounting fears Ukraine could advance on the region it illegally annexed in 2014.
> 
> Ukraine’s military reported that men in Crimea have received mobilisation papers despite Russian president Vladimir Putin ordering an end to mobilisation in the rest of the country.
> 
> “In Crimea, a covert mobilisation to bolster the ranks of occupying forces is ongoing,” it said.
> 
> Analysts have said that the Kremlin’s call-up drive has largely been supplied by Russia’s far-flung provinces.
> 
> Sergey Melikov, the governor of Dagestan, on Tuesday weighed into the debate with a rare public criticism of the mobilisation, saying on a Telegram video that it was shameful that top Kremlin officials had not sent their sons to fight in Ukraine in a war that they had said was vital to win for Russia’s survival.
> 
> Kremlin-installed authorities in Crimea said the peninsula came under attack by drones on Tuesday.
> 
> Mikhail Razvozhayev, the governor of the Sevastopol administrative region, said two drones were shot down and urged residents to “remain calm”.
> 
> Crimea’s Moscow-appointed governor said last week that Russia’s defences were being strengthened there as Kyiv’s forces continued to reclaim territory in neighbouring Kherson.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukraine launches assault to gain strategic foothold on occupied side of Dnipro river
> 
> 
> Control of the Kinburn Spit allows for dominance of the Dnipro river entrance and the ports of Kherson and Mykolaiv
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.telegraph.co.uk


Much of it will be in range of Ukrainian artillery, so likley untenable for Russian defenders.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Colin Parkinson said:


> Much of it will be in range of Ukrainian artillery, so likley untenable for Russian defenders.



In various non-operational scenarios I recall that we scooted whole rifle companies along various coastlines in landing craft, usually at night, well past supposedly highly alert ENFOR without being seen or challenged.

It always amazed me how easy that was to do. We always managed an unopposed landing that surprised the bad guys.

I have no idea why, but obviously assume it's harder to do when the ball ammo gets loaded.


----------



## KevinB

Retired AF Guy said:


> I thougt Mother Winter was a Russian ally?


Only when on the defensive… 
   Keep in mind a lot of the USSR’s valiant warriors of WW2 were Ukrainian.  
In this conflict USSR 2.0 is playing the part of Nazi Germany…


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> In various non-operational scenarios I recall that we scooted whole rifle companies along various coastlines in landing craft, usually at night, well past supposedly highly alert ENFOR without being seen or challenged.
> 
> It always amazed me how easy that was to do. We always managed an unopposed landing that surprised the bad guys.
> 
> I have no idea why, but obviously assume it's harder to do when the ball ammo gets loaded.



But perhaps not harder when the "defenders" are so wrapped up in their own misery that even a grenade in their trench can't motivate them?


----------



## Kirkhill

Colin Parkinson said:


> Much of it will be in range of Ukrainian artillery, so likley untenable for Russian defenders.



And it is all estuarine lands - digging trenches and staying dry are both going to be problematic.


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Only when on the defensive…
> Keep in mind a lot of the USSR’s valiant warriors of WW2 were Ukrainian.
> In this conflict USSR 2.0 is playing the part of Nazi Germany…


Unfortunately no one bothered to inform the Russian's they were playing the part of the Nazi's circa winter 1944.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Unfortunately no one bothered to inform the Russian's they were playing the part of the Nazi's circa winter 1944.


Why prepare them


----------



## Spencer100

Czech_pivo said:


> Unfortunately no one bothered to inform the Russian's they were playing the part of the Nazi's circa winter 1944.


----------



## OldSolduer

How did the Soviet Union put it? 
Winter was an ally? General Winter?

Winter is neither friendly nor enemy - it will kill you if you’re not trained and prepared


----------



## Kirkhill

OldSolduer said:


> How did the Soviet Union put it?
> Winter was an ally? General Winter?
> 
> Winter is neither friendly nor enemy - it will kill you if you’re not trained and prepared



WW2 Siberians lived in felts and furs.
Modern Siberians live in Adidas.


----------



## Furniture

OldSolduer said:


> How did the Soviet Union put it?
> Winter was an ally? General Winter?
> 
> Winter is neither friendly nor enemy - it will kill you if you’re not trained and prepared


Winter is like the sea, it's the enemy of both sides.


----------



## Kirkhill

More on the South

Despite the title we are still talking about recce and raids - not a lodgement.


----------



## McG

UK MoD theory for Russia firing unarmed missiles that were designed as nuclear delivery systems: decoys to counter effective Ukrainian air defence.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1596389927733927937


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Kirkhill said:


> More on the South
> 
> Despite the title we are still talking about recce and raids - not a lodgement.


Very little in the way of cover in that area and I suspect digging in exposes a very high water table. There is only one small "port" along the spit and I am sure it's well targeted. It's going to be kind of a no man's land, but the good news is the threats of raids will prevent the Russians from using much of it for artillery or observation.


----------



## Kirkhill

Colin Parkinson said:


> Very little in the way of cover in that area and I suspect digging in exposes a very high water table. There is only one small "port" along the spit and I am sure it's well targeted. It's going to be kind of a no man's land, but the good news is the threats of raids will prevent the Russians from using much of it for artillery or observation.



I think the Ukrainians would likely consider it a win if, through offensive action, they can keep it as "no-man's land".  Just like WWI trench raids.

If they own the river and the marshes they can keep the Russians pushed back and away from artillery range of Kherson and Mykolaiv.


----------



## daftandbarmy

General Winter claims a few more....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1596283603385651200


----------



## Colin Parkinson

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1596115247898787840


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Left is WWI and right is Ukraine


----------



## FJAG

Colin Parkinson said:


> Left is WWI and right is Ukraine
> 
> View attachment 75168


War has come a long way in the last century.

😖


----------



## MilEME09

FJAG said:


> War has come a long way in the last century.
> 
> 😖


nihil sub sōle novum

"There is nothing new under the sun" war never changes


----------



## ueo

MilEME09 said:


> nihil sub sōle novum
> 
> "There is nothing new under the sun" war never changes


Old men cause wars, young men die!


----------



## KevinB

ueo said:


> Old men cause wars, people die!


FIFY


----------



## MilEME09

Ukrainian PA once again putting out some great video to keep things fresh 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1596436187358666755


----------



## Kirkhill

No Shorts, No Socks, No Docs...  Russia



> Russian official staggeringly admits 'we have no socks, shorts, doctors, or intelligence'
> A pro-war official has made an incredible public admission of the total lack of equipment provided to Russian soldiers.
> 
> One of the Kremlin’s most prominent nationalist politicians said the Russian military does not have an adequate number of doctors or other adequate supplies in an extraordinary tirade against the state of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. During a meeting on Saturday with the mothers of soldiers mobilised for the war, Leonid Slutsky, leader of the populist Liberal Democratic Party and chairman of the foreign relations committee in the lower house of parliament, has been a staunch supporter of the invasion - but offered a surprising public admission of issues facing the Russian military.
> 
> He said at the meeting: “There are not enough doctors in the military units; everyone says this. I cannot say they do not exist at all, but they are practically not seen there.
> 
> “We must understand that the whole world is watching us. We are the largest state and when we do not have socks, shorts, doctors, intelligence, communications, or simply care for our children, questions arise that will be very difficult to answer.”











						Russian official staggeringly admits 'we have no socks, shorts, doctor
					

A pro-war official has made an incredible public admission of the total lack of equipment provided to Russian soldiers.




					www.express.co.uk
				




Possible Russian evacuation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant?



> Russia on brink of major retreat as Putin's forces could flee Ukraine nuclear power-plant​The head of Ukraine's state-run nuclear energy firm says there are signs that Russian forces might be preparing to leave the area.​
> The Russian army might be leaving the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, it has been claimed. The head of Ukraine's state-run nuclear energy firm says there are signs that Russian forces might be preparing to leave the area, in a potential retreat.





> in 6 hours17:56 Liam Doyle
> Russia considering retreat from occupied nuclear plant​Russian forces may have started preparations to leave Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.
> The plant, the biggest in Europe, has been under Russian occupation since February, according to Ukrainian firm Energoatom.
> It's chief, Petro Kotin, told interviewers in a television appearance on Sunday that intelligence suggests that occupation may soon come to an end.
> He said Ukraine has seen "signs" that they are "possibly preparing to leave the plant".
> He explained: "Firstly there are a very large number of reports in Russian media that it would be worth vacating and maybe worth handing control to the [International Atomic Energy Agency – the UN’s nuclear watchdog.
> "One gets the impression they're packing their bags and stealing everything they can."











						Russia on brink of retreat as forces could flee Ukraine nuclear plant
					

The head of Ukraine's state-run nuclear energy firm says there are signs that Russian forces might be preparing to leave the area.




					www.express.co.uk


----------



## daftandbarmy

You go, Girl!


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1596997963465003009


----------



## Kirkhill

Bakhmut trenches - 


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/z5dgyj


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Kirkhill said:


> Bakhmut trenches -
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/z5dgyj



Might as well be the Somme. Poor bastards the lot of them. Their strength and conviction are inspiring


----------



## Skysix

More OJT less CBL/DLN


----------



## Kirkhill

Conditions in the field


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/z6re6j


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> Conditions in the field
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/z6re6j



BV 206 would do just fine there... if they had them.


----------



## Kirkhill

Scholz has been getting a lot of FLaK over both his slow pace on upgrading the Bundeswehr and supplying Ukraine.   He pledged about another 100 BEUR per year.

But what if there just isn't that much stuff to buy?  What if that amount of cash were to be dropped into a supply chain that is already stretching beyond capacity?









						Germany needs $20.5b to replenish 'depleted' ammunition, says top official
					

Eva Hoegl, a defence oversight official of the German parliament, has criticised the government's "lack of action" to fully equip members of the military, calling it "unacceptable".




					www.trtworld.com
				












						Pentagon, U.S. arms makers to talk Russia, labor and supply chain
					

Pentagon leaders plan to meet with defense industry executives next week to discuss ways to tackle supply-chain problems, a U.S. official told Reuters, amid an expected surge in demand for weapons from U.S. allies due to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> Scholz has been getting a lot of FLaK over both his slow pace on upgrading the Bundeswehr and supplying Ukraine.   He pledged about another 100 BEUR per year.
> 
> But what if there just isn't that much stuff to buy?  What if that amount of cash were to be dropped into a supply chain that is already stretching beyond capacity?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Germany needs $20.5b to replenish 'depleted' ammunition, says top official
> 
> 
> Eva Hoegl, a defence oversight official of the German parliament, has criticised the government's "lack of action" to fully equip members of the military, calling it "unacceptable".
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.trtworld.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Pentagon, U.S. arms makers to talk Russia, labor and supply chain
> 
> 
> Pentagon leaders plan to meet with defense industry executives next week to discuss ways to tackle supply-chain problems, a U.S. official told Reuters, amid an expected surge in demand for weapons from U.S. allies due to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


And its crickets here about replacing a single boot, sleeping bag, C Gustav or 155mm....


----------



## Staff Weenie

Today's random thought - is Bakhmut becoming a modern day Verdun - a fight which consumes personnel and material at a frantic rate, over a site of lesser strategic importance, but growing national/emotional relevance? Falkenhayn wanted to bleed the French white, but instead locked his own forces into a battle of attrition that Germany could not afford. Is the same thing happening here?


----------



## Skysix

Staff Weenie said:


> Today's random thought - is Bakhmut becoming a modern day Verdun - a fight which consumes personnel and material at a frantic rate, over a site of lesser strategic importance, but growing national/emotional relevance? Falkenhayn wanted to bleed the French white, but instead locked his own forces into a battle of attrition that Germany could not afford. Is the same thing happening here?


Only if the West continues to support Ukraine in the haf assed way they have been.

If all the weapon types etc that NATO et al have supplied to date were made available last spring hundreds of thousands of lives would have been spared (from both sides). *And if Germany had ever actually delivered in a timely manner)

And the reconstruction would be a small fraction of the expense it now is, less people in Africa etc would have lost their food supply, inflation and economic effects would be lower. By half assing it we have prolonged and allowed the intensification if Putin's Genocidal War.


----------



## daftandbarmy

The indirect approach:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1597216240921358338


----------



## Skysix

Wow. Just wow. Cognitive dissonance or delusional or just a party liner....


----------



## Quirky

Skysix said:


> Wow. Just wow. Cognitive dissonance or delusional or just a party liner....


Baghdad Bob is in the UK now.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Quirky said:


> Baghdad Bob is in the UK now.


Or "How do I answer these questions without falling out of a window?"


----------



## CBH99

Colin Parkinson said:


> Or "How do I answer these questions without falling out of a window?"


Probably crossed his mind, and I can’t blame the guy for even pondering it.  

It’s crazy how 2 sides of a conflict can look at the ‘cause’ & be so convinced that the other side started it.


----------



## Quirky

Colin Parkinson said:


> Or "How do I answer these questions without falling out of a window?"


I’d be moving my office to the first floor after that interview.


----------



## McG

The BTG is no longer a thing. I guess Russia will be going back to regiments in a division structure.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1597482502200983552


----------



## Spencer100

McG said:


> The BTG is no longer a thing. I guess Russia will be going back to regiments in a division structure.
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1597482502200983552


They'll be studying that in war colleges and such for decades to come.  

Question: was the BTG a Russian response to what they saw in wars by the US in the mideast etc?  Smaller faster moving units that can take advantage the modern battlefield?  Or just a cost saving measure to look bigger than reality?  See I have 180 BTG's we are strong?


----------



## KevinB

Spencer100 said:


> They'll be studying that in war colleges and such for decades to come.
> 
> Question: was the BTG a Russian response to what they saw in wars by the US in the mideast etc?  Smaller faster moving units that can take advantage the modern battlefield?  Or just a cost saving measure to look bigger than reality?  See I have 180 BTG's we are strong?


I suspect it was also due to their experience in Chechnya, and Syria.  Pushing down enablers to allow for rapid reaction when dealing with relatively small engagements.

Works great in smaller conflicts, but not against a Peer Army that will contest larger areas.  

I’m not sure it will help much at this point, other than keep some of their Arty out of spitting ranges.   I’m not sure if they can coordinate fires well in a larger formation given they had terrible issues even coordinating with internal units.

It will however make Russians bombardment method easier - so while it may not directly help close support at the front, it makes wiping a grid square easier in theory.


----------



## FJAG

KevinB said:


> I suspect it was also due to their experience in Chechnya, and Syria.  Pushing down enablers to allow for rapid reaction when dealing with relatively small engagements.
> 
> Works great in smaller conflicts, but not against a Peer Army that will contest larger areas.
> 
> I’m not sure it will help much at this point, other than keep some of their Arty out of spitting ranges.   I’m not sure if they can coordinate fires well in a larger formation given they had terrible issues even coordinating with internal units.
> 
> It will however make Russians bombardment method easier - so while it may not directly help close support at the front, it makes wiping a grid square easier in theory.


This is one of those big "I told you so moments" that I think anyone who hadn't drunk the "big wars are over Kool-Aid" at the turn of the last century could see coming. Unfortunately Canada was one of those. Gunners and Tankers rolled over on their backs and let the infantry rub their tummies.

It's a simple fact of life. It's far, far easier to decentralize assets to form small battle groups when needed than to concentrate a whole bunch of small battle groups of this and that into a large conventional force when needed. In some case the latter becomes near impossible because of equipment and skill fade in the army as a whole.

I guess it's basic psychology. Infantry grows up learning to fight at the company and battalion level. Tankers, and even more so, gunners think in terms of mass and flexibility on a grander scale starting at the brigade level. We've raised a generation of officers that thinks small for 2.75 years out of every 3.0. The odd CAX, isn't enough to get a handle on capability gaps and large scale logistics.

🍻


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Spencer100 said:


> They'll be studying that in war colleges and such for decades to come.
> 
> Question: was the BTG a Russian response to what they saw in wars by the US in the mideast etc?  Smaller faster moving units that can take advantage the modern battlefield?  Or just a cost saving measure to look bigger than reality?  See I have 180 BTG's we are strong?



IMHO, I think they were trying to do what most Western militaries were doing in the latter part of the Cold War and assuming that the next conflict would be a joint/combined arms campaign that would require smaller detachments of forces dispersed over multiple fronts; not the sprawling armies of yore. 

The structure of a BTG is about on par with what we would have in a Company Group, but with the enablers of a Battle Group. The 2 main problems are that:

-with roughly 200 infantry folks per BTG, none of which are conscripts, they rely heavily on paramilitaries or proxies for flank and rear guard security. Not a lot of depth for reinforcing the Tank and Fires folks.

and

-where as NATO will exercise and encourage Mission Command down to the Detachment level, the Russians still subscribed to the centralized C2 familiar to most Soviet-style armies. Couple that with their abysmal GLONASS TacC2IS, the flexibility of a BTG commander to direct fires and other support enablers is significantly reduced. 

I could see the structure working if they had competent and professional forces, coupled with a reliable C2 structure; that said, the Russo-Ukrainian War will probably be a prime example of victory coming from your enemy sucking more than you expected and capitalizing on it.


----------



## Kirkhill

FJAG said:


> This is one of those big "I told you so moments" that I think anyone who hadn't drunk the "big wars are over Kool-Aid" at the turn of the last century could see coming. Unfortunately Canada was one of those. Gunners and Tankers rolled over on their backs and let the infantry rub their tummies.
> 
> It's a simple fact of life. It's far, far easier to decentralize assets to form small battle groups when needed than to concentrate a whole bunch of small battle groups of this and that into a large conventional force when needed. In some case the latter becomes near impossible because of equipment and skill fade in the army as a whole.
> 
> I guess it's basic psychology. *Infantry grows up learning to fight at the company and battalion level. Tankers, and even more so, gunners think in terms of mass and flexibility on a grander scale starting at the brigade level.* We've raised a generation of officers that thinks small for 2.75 years out of every 3.0. The odd CAX, isn't enough to get a handle on capability gaps and large scale logistics.
> 
> 🍻



Then. your problem is easily solved.  Separate the Infantry from the Real Army.   The Infantry seem to have regular jobs sorting out the locals.  The Tankers and Gunners can then focus on the Next Big Thing.  

Quick question though:  Who gets the budget for operations and inconsequentials like drones, ATGMs, mortars, MANPADS?  I mean after you have bought the Tanks and SPHs that you might need in the future?


----------



## McG

FJAG said:


> This is one of those big "I told you so moments" that I think anyone who hadn't drunk the "big wars are over Kool-Aid" at the turn of the last century could see coming. Unfortunately Canada was one of those. Gunners and Tankers rolled over on their backs and let the infantry rub their tummies.
> 
> It's a simple fact of life. It's far, far easier to decentralize assets to form small battle groups when needed than to concentrate a whole bunch of small battle groups of this and that into a large conventional force when needed. In some case the latter becomes near impossible because of equipment and skill fade in the army as a whole.
> 
> I guess it's basic psychology. Infantry grows up learning to fight at the company and battalion level. Tankers, and even more so, gunners think in terms of mass and flexibility on a grander scale starting at the brigade level. We've raised a generation of officers that thinks small for 2.75 years out of every 3.0. The odd CAX, isn't enough to get a handle on capability gaps and large scale logistics.
> 
> 🍻


Infantry are not the only orgs to have been too focused on making Canada an army of sub-unit level competence. Everyone thinks small when it comes to logistics, and we have been too ready to sacrifice logistics to protect shiny toys. As long as we can support a combat team from a static start point, the rest of the echelon does not need enough weapons, radios, night vision, or truck to protect itself while supporting a battalion in mobile operations. We have also taught ourselves that a service battalion could simultaneously support a mobile brigade and act as its own DSA without leaving a FOB.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

McG said:


> Infantry are not the only orgs to have been too focused on making Canada an army of sub-unit level competence. Everyone thinks small when it comes to logistics, and we have been too ready to sacrifice logistics to protect shiny toys. As long as we can support a combat team from a static start point, the rest of the echelon does not need enough weapons, radios, night vision, or truck to protect itself while supporting a battalion in mobile operations. We have also taught ourselves that a service battalion could simultaneously support a mobile brigade and act as its own DSA without leaving a FOB.



Totally agree. A friend told me that a lot of folks on AOC struggled with the "other things" involved in Brigade level operations; mainly Logistics and Communications. 

Its probably a byproduct of our "Battle Group and below" mentality for 20 years that has caused this kind of stunted thinking with our future strategic planners.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Speculation that the US is ready to supply Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB) to Ukraine.



> Exclusive: U.S. weighs sending 100-mile strike weapon to Ukraine​By Mike Stone
> 
> WASHINGTON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The Pentagon is considering a Boeing proposal to supply Ukraine with cheap, small precision bombs fitted onto abundantly available rockets, allowing Kyiv to strike far behind Russian lines as the West struggles to meet demand for more arms.
> 
> U.S. and allied military inventories are shrinking, and Ukraine faces an increasing need for more sophisticated weapons as the war drags on. Boeing's proposed system, dubbed Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB), is one of about a half-dozen plans for getting new munitions into production for Ukraine and America's Eastern European allies, industry sources said.
> 
> Although the United States has rebuffed requests for the 185-mile (297km) range ATACMS missile, the GLSDB's 94-mile (150km) range would allow Ukraine to hit valuable military targets that have been out of reach and help it continue pressing its counterattacks by disrupting Russian rear areas.
> 
> GLSDB could be delivered as early as spring 2023, according to a document reviewed by Reuters and three people familiar with the plan. It combines the GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) with the M26 rocket motor, both of which are common in U.S. inventories.
> 
> Doug Bush, the U.S. Army's chief weapons buyer, told reporters at the Pentagon last week the Army was also looking at accelerating production of 155 millimeter artillery shells - currently only manufactured at government facilities - by allowing defense contractors to build them.
> 
> The invasion of Ukraine drove up demand for American-made weapons and ammunition, while U.S. allies in Eastern Europe are "putting a lot of orders," in for a range of arms as they supply Ukraine, Bush added.
> 
> "It's about getting quantity at a cheap cost," said Tom Karako, a weapons and security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He said falling U.S. inventories help explain the rush to get more arms now, saying stockpiles are "getting low relative to the levels we like to keep on hand and certainly to the levels we're going to need to deter a China conflict."
> 
> Karako also noted that the U.S. exit from Afghanistan left lots of air-dropped bombs available. They cannot be easily used with Ukrainian aircraft, but "in today's context we should be looking for innovative ways to convert them to standoff capability."
> *Although a handful of GLSDB units have already been made, there are many logistical obstacles to formal procurement. The Boeing plan requires a price discovery waiver, exempting the contractor from an in-depth review that ensures the Pentagon is getting the best deal possible. Any arrangement would also require at least six suppliers to expedite shipments of their parts and services to produce the weapon quickly.*​A Boeing spokesperson declined to comment. Pentagon spokesman Lt. Cmdr. Tim Gorman declined to comment on providing any "specific capability" to Ukraine, but said the U.S. and its allies "identify and consider the most appropriate systems" that would help Kyiv.
> 
> GLSDB is made jointly by SAAB AB (SAABb.ST) and Boeing Co (BA.N) and has been in development since 2019, well before the invasion, which Russia calls a "special operation". In October, SAAB chief executive Micael Johansson said of the GLSDB: "We are imminently shortly expecting contracts on that."
> 
> According to the document - a Boeing proposal to U.S. European Command (EUCOM), which is overseeing weapons headed to Ukraine - the main components of the GLSDB would come from current U.S. stores.
> 
> The M26 rocket motor is relatively abundant, and the GBU-39 costs about $40,000 each, making the completed GLSDB inexpensive and its main components readily available. Although arms manufacturers are struggling with demand, those factors make it possible to yield weapons by early 2023, albeit at a low rate of production.
> 
> GLSDB is GPS-guided, can defeat some electronic jamming, is usable in all weather conditions, and can be used against armored vehicles, according to SAAB's website. The GBU-39 - which would function as the GLSDB's warhead - has small, folding wings that allow it to glide more than 100km if dropped from an aircraft and targets as small as 3 feet in diameter.



 Link 
​


----------



## brihard

Retired AF Guy said:


> Speculation that the US is ready to supply Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB) to Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> Link
> ​



I’ll believe it when stuff starts blowing up way in the back of the store. If the US wanted to extend Ukraine’s punching distance, they could have ages ago. Ukraine would have respected use caveats in order to ensure they were entrusted with the kit. 

Hopefully it does happen in future, but that would mean a change in will by the US.


----------



## suffolkowner

Ukraine Situation Report: Russian Artillery Advantage Diminishing
					

For a variety of reasons, the ratio of Russian artillery volleys compared to Ukrainian ones is decreasing, a Pentagon official said.




					www.thedrive.com
				




pretty positive update on Ukraine including manufacturing new 122mm and 152mm ammo


----------



## Kirkhill

Explicit call in Bucharest for Long Range missiles for Ukraine from Baltics and Nordics - and to commit 1% of NATO GDP to the support and defence of Ukraine.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/z8jxxx









						Nordic, Baltic foreign ministers on joint 'solidarity visit' to Kyiv
					

Eight foreign ministers from the Baltics and Nordics visited Kyiv on Monday to show "unwavering" support for Ukraine's "heroic and extraordinary fight for freedom for democracy".




					news.err.ee
				




Rishi Sunak was in Kyiv 5 days previous.


----------



## GR66

Kirkhill said:


> Explicit call in Bucharest for Long Range missiles for Ukraine from Baltics and Nordics - and to commit 1% of NATO GDP to the support and defence of Ukraine.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/z8jxxx
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Nordic, Baltic foreign ministers on joint 'solidarity visit' to Kyiv
> 
> 
> Eight foreign ministers from the Baltics and Nordics visited Kyiv on Monday to show "unwavering" support for Ukraine's "heroic and extraordinary fight for freedom for democracy".
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.err.ee
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Rishi Sunak was in Kyiv 5 days previous.


1% of GDP to support the defence of Ukraine???  How can Canada be expected to double it's defence budget???


----------



## Kirkhill

GR66 said:


> 1% of GDP to support the defence of Ukraine???  How can Canada be expected to double it's defence budget???


Foreign aid is supposed to be 0.7% of GDP.

1% could be sold as foreign aid or a 1 year rise in the Defence Budget operations.  No lasting commitment to either the budget or DND.

Canada doing its bit.  Parkas and generators.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Go get 'em, Tony:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1597947736628023296


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> Go get 'em, Tony:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1597947736628023296



Zelenskyy wanted Air Defence systems before the first bomb fell.

Just like he wanted ATGMs before the first tank crossed his border.

Just like he has been asking for LRPFs from Feb 24.


----------



## Kirkhill

Retired AF Guy said:


> Speculation that the US is ready to supply Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB) to Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> Link
> ​



The key driver on this project seems to be that it is a readily available, cheap(ish) solution to rapidly depleting NATO stocks, especially of PGMs.

Also it brings to the fight an aerial weapon without having to bring NATO aircraft to the fight.









						How this repurposed Western weapon could help Ukraine in its defence
					

Defence manufacturers have begun looking at ways of repurposing existing weapons as many Nato countries reportedly run low on ammunition amid the Ukraine war.




					www.forces.net


----------



## Kilted

Kirkhill said:


> Foreign aid is supposed to be 0.7% of GDP.
> 
> 1% could be sold as foreign aid or a 1 year rise in the Defence Budget operations.  No lasting commitment to either the budget or DND.
> 
> Canada doing its bit.  Parkas and generators.


I'm still waiting for the order to take my socks off because we are sending them to the Ukraine.


----------



## suffolkowner

we(the US and EU) are sitting on $400 Billion of Putins laundered money maybe its time some of it was put to work


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Kirkhill said:


> The key driver on this project seems to be that it is a readily available, cheap(ish) solution to rapidly depleting NATO stocks, especially of PGMs.


Sounds like something that Canada should be looking at. Plus, you can also launch then from aircraft - kill two birds with one stone, so too speak.


----------



## Kat Stevens

...Or two stones with one bird.


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> The key driver on this project seems to be that it is a readily available, cheap(ish) solution to rapidly depleting NATO stocks, especially of PGMs.


Let’s be honest as a percentage NATO’s stocks have really barely been touched.  The embarrassing issue is at a grand total down here in the US that is 90% of NATO’s stocks…   Most of the rest of NATO are freeloaders, or a one stroke joke. 




Kirkhill said:


> Also it brings to the fight an aerial weapon without having to bring NATO aircraft to the fight.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How this repurposed Western weapon could help Ukraine in its defence
> 
> 
> Defence manufacturers have begun looking at ways of repurposing existing weapons as many Nato countries reportedly run low on ammunition amid the Ukraine war.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.forces.net


----------



## suffolkowner

KevinB said:


> Let’s be honest as a percentage NATO’s stocks have really barely been touched.  The embarrassing issue is at a grand total down here in the US that is 90% of NATO’s stocks…   Most of the rest of NATO are freeloaders, or a one stroke joke.


And why I'm surprised that the US doesnt push harder for more stocks from all NATO countries. There should be some sort of mandated number or idealized number for everything. Look how pathetic we are in Canada where we dont even have much to donate to Ukraine


----------



## KevinB

suffolkowner said:


> And why I'm surprised that the US doesnt push harder for more stocks from all NATO countries. There should be some sort of mandated number or idealized number for everything. Look how pathetic we are in Canada where we dont even have much to donate to Ukraine


Perhaps we know it’s not worth the bother of trying to wring blood from a stone, and using that imbalance to leverage other aspects behind public view (like your P-8 acquisition etc  ).


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> Let’s be honest as a percentage NATO’s stocks have really barely been touched.  The embarrassing issue is at a grand total down here in the US that is 90% of NATO’s stocks…   Most of the rest of NATO are freeloaders, or a one stroke joke.



Fair enough.  Canada could be buying more from stocks, or donating more money to Ukraine for it to do the buying?

Another aspect of this GLSDB is that the Swedes (SAAB) and Norwegians (NAMMO) have both got skin in this solution - but I probably needs US clearance to field.


----------



## Furniture

Just saw this pop up, how does Canada not have even systems like this as a last resort?


----------



## KevinB

Furniture said:


> Just saw this pop up, how does Canada not have even systems like this as a last resort?


The missing layers of Canadian AD are basically A through Z…


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Furniture said:


> Just saw this pop up, how does Canada not have even systems like this as a last resort?



Because Canada doesn't like to think we would need those kinds of systems? 

I remember reading about when we divested ADATS that one of the prevailing attitudes were that "The Taliban doesn't have an Air Force...so....cha ching?" 

We don't have it because it costs money to be proactive; money the voting public wants spent on bread and circuses.


----------



## quadrapiper

KevinB said:


> Let’s be honest as a percentage NATO’s stocks have really barely been touched.  The embarrassing issue is at a grand total down here in the US that is 90% of NATO’s stocks…   Most of the rest of NATO are freeloaders, or a one stroke joke.


I wonder how much of that is a knock-on from a US defence industry, forty to seventy years ago, happy to stifle, underbid, buy out, pressure, and otherwise displace everyone else's generally smaller post-WWII industries.

Separately: Canada should have retained a much more robust defence industry, and much more robust war stocks. It's not like we don't have room...


----------



## Maxman1

Kat Stevens said:


> ...Or two stones with one bird.


----------



## KevinB

quadrapiper said:


> I wonder how much of that is a knock-on from a US defence industry, forty to seventy years ago, happy to stifle, underbid, buy out, pressure, and otherwise displace everyone else's generally smaller post-WWII industries.


The US rebuilt most of Europe…
   One doesn’t need an enormous Defense Industry to have a well equipped Military and depth of munitions to last more than a few weeks. 
  One just needs a will. 


quadrapiper said:


> Separately: Canada should have retained a much more robust defence industry, and much more robust war stocks. It's not like we don't have room...


Despite what many Canadians believe, Freedom isn’t free.


----------



## TacticalTea

KevinB said:


> The US rebuilt most of Europe…
> One doesn’t need an enormous Defense Industry to have a well equipped Military and depth of munitions to last more than a few weeks.
> One just needs a will.
> 
> Despite what many Canadians believe, Freedom isn’t free.


Thomas Jefferson said "the tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants."

Manifestly, Canadians and West Europeans are content to leave the bleeding to the Americans.

Grow my tree, you imperialist bastards!

...


----------



## Furniture

KevinB said:


> The US rebuilt most of Europe…
> One doesn’t need an enormous Defense Industry to have a well equipped Military and depth of munitions to last more than a few weeks.
> One just needs a will.
> 
> Despite what many Canadians believe, Freedom isn’t free.


Not to defend Canada's current delinquency, but larger American companies undercutting Canadian defence contractors likely lead to some of the current apathy. 

"Why spend billions on the American military industrial complex? After all they kill the Arrow!"  

If Canada had a robust defence industry, it would be easier to sell buying from it. Nobody bats an eye at buying more LAVs from GLDS London...


----------



## KevinB

Furniture said:


> Not to defend Canada's current delinquency, but larger American companies undercutting Canadian defence contractors likely lead to some of the current apathy.
> 
> "Why spend billions on the American military industrial complex? After all they kill the Arrow!"


Let’s be honest, the Arrow killed the Arrow.  Dreaming big is great, but it wasn’t anything more than an airframe with no avionics.  
  When Canada shut it down, where did that industry and personnel go? 
   Down here…




Furniture said:


> If Canada had a robust defence industry, it would be easier to sell buying from it. Nobody bats an eye at buying more LAVs from GLDS London...


GDLS being a US company…


----------



## suffolkowner

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1598261041095643136
curious activity in Spain


----------



## daftandbarmy

TacticalTea said:


> Thomas Jefferson said "the tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants."
> 
> Manifestly, Canadians and West Europeans are content to leave the bleeding to the Americans.
> 
> Grow my tree, you imperialist bastards!
> 
> ...



Sidebar: A good politician, Jefferson never served in action with the Continental Army. His 'fightin' words', however, seem to match his role as a Colonel in their equivalent of the A Res though  

Was Thomas Jefferson in the Military?​Thomas Jefferson was elected President of the United States on February 17th, 1801, making today the 221st anniversary of his election. He was the third U.S. president and one of the greatest political thinkers of any generation. But was Thomas Jefferson in the military? 
Fun Fact: Thomas Jefferson WAS in the Military!​Most people probably don’t think about him as a seasoned combat Veteran. Instead, many probably think of Jefferson as an Enlightenment thinker and the writer of the Declaration of Independence. But to Jefferson, military service was actually a large part of his early years. 
When Jefferson was just 27 years old, he was appointed to the Albemarle County Militia by the Governor of Virginia. It’s only natural to wonder what rank was Thomas Jefferson when he was given this appointment. As it happens, he started right out of the gate with the rank of colonel. 
In 1770, 31 years before he was elected to the presidency, Jefferson began his military career by preparing the Virginia militia for battle. He kept the muster rolls, led regular drills, and made sure that any money owed to the sheriff for the militia was paid up. Given his legal background, it’s probably no surprise that he was also responsible for such militia dealings as conducting a court-martial where necessary. 









						Was Thomas Jefferson in the Military? - VeteranLife | Welcome Home
					

You probably know a lot about Thomas Jefferson, but was Thomas Jefferson in the military? The answer is here!




					veteranlife.com


----------



## CBH99

KevinB said:


> The missing layers of Canadian AD are basically A through Z…


Between the peacekeeping years of Bosnia, Croatia, Kosovo - we didn't need an AD bubble.  Afghanistan was next, and we didn't need an AD bubble over there either.

Since the cold war was over, and there was no state on state aggression happening anywhere on our radar, AD was a capability we let atrophy to save money.


I actually don't blame the powers at be for this one.

Yes it would have been easy & a token amount to keep a bare AD capability alive.  But the war in Afghanistan was expensive, there was plenty of kit fielded in a very short time - and the money for a capability not needed was used towards capabilities we did at the time.

(Imagine if we didn't UAV's or didn't deploy the Griffons because that money was used to fund an AD capability that wasn't needed, and the AD gunners were twiddling their thumbs back here in Canada... we'd be frustrated.)

Our problem isn't that we didn't fund AD during the few decades we didn't need it.  

Our problem is that everything takes so f**king long to get done here when we can't UOR something.


----------



## KevinB

CBH99 said:


> Between the peacekeeping years of Bosnia, Croatia, Kosovo - we didn't need an AD bubble.  Afghanistan was next, and we didn't need an AD bubble over there either.
> 
> Since the cold war was over, and there was no state on state aggression happening anywhere on our radar, AD was a capability we let atrophy to save money.


It is always easy to dial back from Full Conflict than scale up...
  The CAF budget should easily allow for a lot more than it gets - that isn't a budget issue, that is a management issue.


CBH99 said:


> I actually don't blame the powers at be for this one.


 I do 



CBH99 said:


> Yes it would have been easy & a token amount to keep a bare AD capability alive.  But the war in Afghanistan was expensive, there was plenty of kit fielded in a very short time - and the money for a capability not needed was used towards capabilities we did at the time.


Honestly a ton of stuff bought for Afghanistan was useless, and/or used to hide the fact that the CA had rusted out of lot of items and needed immediate replacement once bullets started to fly -- I'd argue a slew of needed gear that was even more important to the ground mission wasn't every actually acquired.



CBH99 said:


> (Imagine if we didn't UAV's or didn't deploy the Griffons because that money was used to fund an AD capability that wasn't needed, and the AD gunners were twiddling their thumbs back here in Canada... we'd be frustrated.)
> 
> Our problem isn't that we didn't fund AD during the few decades we didn't need it.
> 
> Our problem is that everything takes so f**king long to get done here when we can't UOR something.


You can't grow any capability overnight -- just because you aren't using a capability currently doesn't mean you should not have it, or it isn't needed.
   The money isn't the issue, the way that DND and the CAF squander it is.


----------



## Kirkhill

EW in the Ukrainian Context

240,000 EW targets identified.









						Ukraine’s radio engineering forces have detected over 240,000 enemy targets since beginning of war
					

For the nine months of the large-scale war, the radio engineering forces of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have detected more than 240,000 enemy targets and saved hundreds of thousands of human lives. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> Let’s be honest, the Arrow killed the Arrow.  Dreaming big is great, but it wasn’t anything more than an airframe with no avionics.
> When Canada shut it down, where did that industry and personnel go?
> Down here…
> 
> 
> 
> GDLS being a US company…


My father-in-law ended up working with a number of those CDN's when he was doing some parachute work for NASA back in the mid 60's through early 80's.


----------



## KevinB

First on CNN: US considers dramatically expanding training of Ukrainian forces, US officials say | CNN Politics
					

The Biden administration is considering a dramatic expansion in the training the US military provides to Ukrainian forces, including instructing as many as 2,500 Ukrainian soldiers a month at a US base in Germany, according to multiple US officials.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## CBH99

KevinB said:


> It is always easy to dial back from Full Conflict than scale up...
> The CAF budget should easily allow for a lot more than it gets - that isn't a budget issue, that is a management issue.
> 
> I do
> 
> 
> Honestly a ton of stuff bought for Afghanistan was useless, and/or used to hide the fact that the CA had rusted out of lot of items and needed immediate replacement once bullets started to fly -- I'd argue a slew of needed gear that was even more important to the ground mission wasn't every actually acquired.
> 
> 
> You can't grow any capability overnight -- just because you aren't using a capability currently doesn't mean you should not have it, or it isn't needed.
> The money isn't the issue, the way that DND and the CAF squander it is.


I couldn’t agree more with every single thing you said.  Literally my thoughts exactly.  

However, given the GOFO staff of the CAF _at the time_ and the huge budget cuts experienced during the 90’s during the so-called peace dividend, I can see why AD was allowed to atrophy while scarce dollars were put towards things more urgently needed.  

Due to no air threat (not even drones were an issue back then) in Bosnia, Croatia, or Kosovo, or Afghanistan - I understand why that was the capability we allowed to wither away.  (No sense of foresight at all, ofcourse.)



Now our budget is much healthier than it was in the 90’s, and could go so much further than it does.  

We do squander it, hands down.  

The fact that we lack some basic capabilities yet return hundreds of millions or billions of dollars each year just goes to show how warped the system is.

(One of our biggest flaws, I think anyway, is how long it takes for the simplest of common sense decisions to be made.  Everything is made too complex, too slow, and ends up being too expensive due to us dithering.)


----------



## Kirkhill

Swedish systems manager volunteers for Ukrainian service - engaged as a systems manager

The need for organizers.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

KevinB said:


> Let’s be honest, the Arrow killed the Arrow.  Dreaming big is great, but it wasn’t anything more than an airframe with no avionics.
> When Canada shut it down, where did that industry and personnel go?
> Down here…


Not to derail, but a large chunk of the costs was the proposed missile system, something that was affecting all fighters of that era as it had becoming painfully clear the mighty mouse rocket system was hopeless at shooting down anything. The Arrow had a useful weapons bay that could be adapted as new systems came on line. Once they dropped the new missile system, costs came down. The US sold us a donkey in the form of Bomac and then we had to buy an interceptor after all anyways.


----------



## Furniture

KevinB said:


> Let’s be honest, the Arrow killed the Arrow.  Dreaming big is great, but it wasn’t anything more than an airframe with no avionics.
> When Canada shut it down, where did that industry and personnel go?
> Down here…
> 
> 
> 
> GDLS being a US company…


I wasn't really clear on my position, I was trying to be quick rather than detailed. 

I'm well aware that the Arrow killed itself by being too ambitious, and too costly, while its role was being made obsolete by other technologies. My point with the Arrow is that there is a narrative in Canada that says the US killed off the Arrow to keep Canadian businesses from competing. With that narrative in place it's hard to sell to Canadians that our tax dollars should go to America to buy kit. 

My overall point was this; Canada lives in a safe part of the world above the largest arms producer, so we don't feel threatened enough to invest in a robust defence industry, and we are too cheap/anti-American to spend in America to buy what we need to be a serious country. If like the Poles we had the real threat of invasion/fighting in our own streets, we'd be serious about a defence industry.  

As for GDLS, yes, it's American, but it provides jobs in Canada. Where the corporate HQ is matters less than where the jobs making stuff are in my mind. Which is why I think courting Korea to make K2s, K9s, etc., in Canada would be interesting.


----------



## GR66

CBH99 said:


> I couldn’t agree more with every single thing you said.  Literally my thoughts exactly.
> 
> However, given the GOFO staff of the CAF _at the time_ and the huge budget cuts experienced during the 90’s during the so-called peace dividend, I can see why AD was allowed to atrophy while scarce dollars were put towards things more urgently needed.
> 
> Due to no air threat (not even drones were an issue back then) in Bosnia, Croatia, or Kosovo, or Afghanistan - I understand why that was the capability we allowed to wither away.  (No sense of foresight at all, ofcourse.)


People seem to forget that Canada is for all intents and purposes an island...and that realistically the primary military threats to us directly are AIR (and SEA) threats.  

Letting AD capabilities cease to exist ("atrophy" is far too kind a characterization) is a fundamental failure to address Line 1 of any Defence policy..."The Defence of Canada".


----------



## KevinB

Mods - probably a good time for a thread split.



Furniture said:


> I wasn't really clear on my position, I was trying to be quick rather than detailed.
> 
> I'm well aware that the Arrow killed itself by being too ambitious, and too costly, while its role was being made obsolete by other technologies. My point with the Arrow is that there is a narrative in Canada that says the US killed off the Arrow to keep Canadian businesses from competing. With that narrative in place it's hard to sell to Canadians that our tax dollars should go to America to buy kit.


Roger I thought that was what you where getting at - I just like to belabor points 



Furniture said:


> My overall point was this; Canada lives in a safe part of the world above the largest arms producer, so we don't feel threatened enough to invest in a robust defence industry, and we are too cheap/anti-American to spend in America to buy what we need to be a serious country. If like the Poles we had the real threat of invasion/fighting in our own streets, we'd be serious about a defence industry.
> 
> As for GDLS, yes, it's American, but it provides jobs in Canada. Where the corporate HQ is matters less than where the jobs making stuff are in my mind. Which is why I think courting Korea to make K2s, K9s, etc., in Canada would be interesting.


I still think that buying into US DOD Programs at Ground Zero makes more sense, as one can get significant Industrial Offsets in being a partner.
   There is absolutely nothing in the US Inventory that Canada couldn't use - some items maybe not practical for a smaller military (CVN's for example as the RCN could basically crew the Ford and would need to call it a day beyond that) - but the items themselves could be used.

 Sometimes working with a US Program at certain points even can generate a PIP or Block II, and satisfies the OEM, the US based Customer and the CAF, isn't that right @Good2Golf 

 When one sees the extreme deficit of equipment that the average Canadian Soldier has just at the individual level, and then what is missing as one moves up to larger formations, then looks at the cost of what was spent on the deficient, or insignificant quantity etc items the CAF does or does not have and sees what the equivalent items are in DOD, the CAF budget could be used a lot more efficiently in working more seamlessly with DOD down here -- which is a win win for everyone - as the CAF doesn't need to spend as much, the CAF is better outfitted, and We down here don't resent you as a freeloader all the time...


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> Sometimes working with a US Program at certain points even can generate a PIP or Block II, and satisfies the OEM, the US based Customer and the CAF, isn't that right @Good2Golf


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukrainian electrical system a lot more resilient than feared.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/z9rix7




> "We are more than sure, especially after last week's attack, that Russia has no chance of plunging Ukraine into darkness," he said during a speech at the Kyiv Security Forum, Censor.NET reports.
> 
> Timchenko noted that no energy system in the world, which in terms of size corresponds to Ukraine's, has ever suffered such damage as our energy system received last week.
> 
> He added that after the shelling in some regions, *power workers managed to restore electricity supply in a few hours, and in some - in a few days.*



For those of us that live, or have lived in BC, that have survived ice storms and hurricanes it shouldn't come as big a surprise as it might.  Splicing lines, replacing poles and towers, swapping transformers..... routine maintenance.


----------



## Kirkhill

Mk19, Radio Shack UAV, 3 guys.  Effective Direct Fire.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/z9r5vq


----------



## Kirkhill

Good2Golf said:


> View attachment 75239



  CH-135 / UH-1N Twin Huey


  DHC-4 / CV-2 Caribou & DHC-5 / CV-7 Buffalo

Canadian Aircraft and Mods in US Service....


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> Mk19, Radio Shack UAV, 3 guys.  Effective Direct Fire.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/z9r5vq



Must the Ukrainian equivalent of their ARes


----------



## Kirkhill

Crimean SitRep from Politico









						Target Crimea
					

Partisans are mobilizing, and Russians are trying to sell their holiday homes — as fear grows that the war is closing in on the peninsula.




					www.politico.eu


----------



## Kirkhill

Cute Ukrainian ad for NASAMS - Hall of the Mountain King


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1598283676604895232


----------



## Kirkhill

And a Forbes report on the effect of hypothermia on the Russians









						Russian Soldiers Are Freezing To Death In Eastern Ukraine
					

Thomas Theiner, an ex-soldier who currently is a filmmaker in Kyiv, predicted winter “would kill more Russian soldiers than Ukraine ever could.” He may have been right.




					www.forbes.com
				





AEROSPACE & DEFENSE
Russian Soldiers Are Freezing To Death In Eastern Ukraine​David Axe
Forbes Staff
I write about ships, planes, tanks, drones, missiles and satellites.
Follow
22
Nov 27, 2022,08:00am EST





Russians huddle in a trench as a drone bomb explodes among them.
VIA SOCIAL MEDIA

The Ukrainian army has deployed some of its best brigades to eastern Ukraine, including the 92nd and 93rd Mechanized Brigades and the 1st Presidential Brigade.

But these elite Ukrainian formations might not be the biggest killer of Russian troops in the east. Under-trained, under-supplied and ambivalently led, Russians in the region are freezing to death by the dozen.

Shocking videos that have circulated online in recent weeks tell a tragic story. The videos, shot by the Ukrainian brigades’ hovering drones, depict Russians in the late stages of hypothermia, so cold and sick that they barely react when the drones drop lethal improvised bombs on them.

Thomas Theiner, an ex-soldier who currently is a filmmaker in Kyiv, predicted winter “would kill more Russian soldiers than Ukraine ever could.” He may have been right.

Winters in Ukraine start wet and cold then get colder and drier. Eastern Ukraine still is in the wet-cold phase—and it’s brutal. Deep mud mires armored vehicles. Daytime temperatures hover around freezing and during the night they dip closer to zero degrees Fahrenheit.

With preparation, sound leadership and reliable logistics, the conditions are survivable. Soldiers bundle up, sleep in roofed, heated trenches with floors, frequently change their wet socks and eat twice as much as they would on warm days. When they get sick, they evacuate to the rear for rest.
The problem for the Russian army is that more and more of its troops are untrained draftees. Officers aren’t leading from the front. And Russian logistics are strained by nonstop Ukrainian bombardment. Starving draftees with no gloves or good boots are huddling in shallow, unheated trenches while their officers squat in abandoned houses potentially miles away, unaware or uncaring as their soldiers succumb to the elements.


When you’re wet, hungry and exposed to the nighttime cold, it doesn’t take long for hypothermia to set in. One bad night is enough. Even moderate hypothermia can cause confusion, decreased reflexes and loss of motor skills in sufferers.
Which explains the drone massacre that’s been playing out lately over contested eastern towns such as Svatove, Pavlivka and Bakhmut. Hypothermic Russian troops aren’t even trying to flee when Ukraine’s bomb-armed quadcopter drones buzz overhead. The soldiers barely flinch when a bomb explodes in their fighting position.
Suicides evidently are on the rise. One especially gut-wrenching video depicts a Russian combatant in scrape outside Bakhmut trying to shoot himself in the chest as a Ukrainian drone watches from directly overhead. The Russian’s ungloved right hand is blue with cold, and he struggles to pull the trigger.
The video feed cuts. When we see the Russian again, he apparently has succeeded in killing himself. He doesn’t move when the drone’s bomb explodes beside him.
It’s hard to say for sure how many Russians have died of the cold. But it’s worth noting that just one Russian marine unit, the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, reportedly lost as many as 500 killed and 400 wounded in just the last three months fighting around Pavlivka. That’s potentially half the brigade’s original strength.

A nearly one-to-one killed-to-wounded ratio—one to three is normal—speaks to the collapse of Russian leadership ... and to the cold. Wounded troops, lying exposed to the elements, are dying before anyone bothers to rescue them.
Expect many, many more Russians to freeze to death as the weather gets worse. As the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C. noted on Saturday, temperatures are forecasted to drop throughout Ukraine over the next week.


----------



## Kirkhill

Reported Russian troop movements in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia









						Ukraina: Krievija atvelk spēkus no Hersonai pretī esošajām pilsētām
					

Kopš tā brīža, kad Krievija aizvadītajā mēnesī pameta Hersonu, Dņepras upe tagad veido Ukrainas dienvidu aizsargjoslu.




					www.delfi.lv
				






> On December 1, the armed forces of Ukraine made an official announcement for the first time that Russia is beginning to withdraw its forces from the territories of the bank of the Dnieper river opposite the city of Kherson, which is currently the main front line of the occupiers in the south, informs the media "Reuters".
> 
> The statement provided only limited information and did not mention that Ukrainian forces had crossed the river. Officials in Kyiv also stressed that Russia had increased the intensity of shelling and strikes from the opposite coast, causing another blackout in Kherson, where power was restored just three weeks ago.
> 
> Since Russia's withdrawal from Kherson last month, the Dnieper River now forms Ukraine's southern buffer zone.
> 
> Russia has ordered civilians to leave towns within 15 kilometers of the river and withdrawn its civilian administration from occupied Nova Kahovka. Ukrainian officials have previously stated that Russia has also withdrawn part of the artillery near the river to safer positions further away, reports "Reuters".
> 
> "A decrease in the number of Russian soldiers and military equipment is also observed in the city of Oleshku," said representatives of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, referring to the city opposite Kherson.
> 
> Most of the Russian troops stationed in the region are recently mobilized reservists, indicating that Moscow 's best-trained professional troops have already left the area, Reuters writes.











						Russians withdrawing units from some settlements of Zaporizhzhia Oblast – General Staff
					

According to Ukrainian military intelligence, the Russians are withdrawing their military from the village of Mykhailivka, the city of Polohy and the village of Inzhenerne in the occupied part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast; they offer local residents in the village of Burchak in Zaporizhzhia Oblast...




					www.pravda.com.ua
				






> According to Ukrainian military intelligence, the Russians are withdrawing their military from the village of Mykhailivka, the city of Polohy and the village of Inzhenerne in the occupied part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast; they offer local residents in the village of Burchak in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the opportunity to evacuate.


----------



## Kirkhill

And Crimean SitRep 2

Russia maintains significant military reserves in Crimea​Crimea Ukraine War with Russia
Russia maintains significant reserves in the north of occupied Crimea to strengthen its groups fighting in Ukraine.

During a briefing at the Military Media Center, Brigadier General Oleksii Hromov, Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Department of the General Staff, shared this information.

_*“The enemy maintains reserves in the north of occupied Crimea *to strengthen its troop groups in the Naddnipriansk and Orikhiv directions. *The city of Dzhankoi and the surrounding areas have actually turned into the largest military base on the temporarily occupied territory of the Crimean peninsula,* from where Russian occupation forces, weapons, and military equipment are being redeployed from the Russian Federation,”_ Oleksii Hromov said.


The Brigadier General stated that, according to intelligence, about *750 pieces of weapons and military equipment are located in the field park in the Medvedivka settlement of the Dzhankoi district.*

He emphasized that the priority for the Russian Federation remains maintaining positions in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and at the transport “corridor” to the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea.

It is worth noting that there has long been a powerful logistics center for the Russian troops near the city of Dzhankoi, and a repair base was created on the basis of it to restore the damaged equipment of the invaders.

In June, the publication Krym Realii reported that the Russian military started to develop a base in the Dzhankoi area.







Russian military equipment was damaged near Dzhankoi. July 2022. Occupied Crimea. Photo credits: @horevica
A temporary deployment point was set up on the outskirts of the village of Novostepove.

The correspondents noticed military trucks, towed howitzers, armored personnel carriers, and radar and communication equipment near the Simferopol-Dzhankoi highway. There is also a tent camp near the plantation.

In August, Ukrainian troops destroyed one of the Russian military bases near Dzhankoi.






Detonation of ammunition at a Russian logistics center near Dzhankoi, Autonomous Republic of Crimea, August 16, 2022
Weapons and ammunition were loaded on echelons at this railway station of the logistics center to supply Russian invasion forces in Ukraine.

As a result of the sabotage, Russian military equipment was destroyed, in particular, the Grad MLRS and depots with various artillery ammunition.









						Russia maintains significant military reserves in Crimea
					

Russia maintains significant reserves in the north of occupied Crimea to strengthen its groups fighting in Ukraine




					mil.in.ua


----------



## CBH99

KevinB said:


> Mods - probably a good time for a thread split.
> 
> 
> Roger I thought that was what you where getting at - I just like to belabor points
> 
> 
> I still think that buying into US DOD Programs at Ground Zero makes more sense, as one can get significant Industrial Offsets in being a partner.
> There is absolutely nothing in the US Inventory that Canada couldn't use - some items maybe not practical for a smaller military (CVN's for example as the RCN could basically crew the Ford and would need to call it a day beyond that) - but the items themselves could be used.
> 
> Sometimes working with a US Program at certain points even can generate a PIP or Block II, and satisfies the OEM, the US based Customer and the CAF, isn't that right @Good2Golf
> 
> When one sees the extreme deficit of equipment that the average Canadian Soldier has just at the individual level, and then what is missing as one moves up to larger formations, then looks at the cost of what was spent on the deficient, or insignificant quantity etc items the CAF does or does not have and sees what the equivalent items are in DOD, the CAF budget could be used a lot more efficiently in working more seamlessly with DOD down here -- which is a win win for everyone - as the CAF doesn't need to spend as much, the CAF is better outfitted, and We down here don't resent you as a freeloader all the time...


Questions…

-  What does the Canadian soldier, at the individual level, lack compared to their American counterpart?  

-  Bruh, have you seen who’s running our country right now?  (Hint, literally one of the dumbest guys on Earth…)

Even if he fell out a window <please! oh please! 🙏🏻> the person who would replace him is even scarier than he is, for different reasons!

What you suggest makes sense, especially if we’re looking at individual kit.  But good decisions aren’t our thing right now.  Maybe try back in the spring to see if management has changed?


----------



## KevinB

CBH99 said:


> Questions…
> 
> -  What does the Canadian soldier, at the individual level, lack compared to their American counterpart?


Decent Dual Tube NV, useful MFAL, Comms - wait, Comms again.
  I can go on, but that's a fairly easy one, and while Canada might find a Bde Minus worth of those items, they are all pretty much obsolete - and don't exist outside of High Readiness or Deployed Battle Groups.

Then of course the ATGM, AD Layers, more than 4 Howitzers / Bde etc...



CBH99 said:


> -  Bruh, have you seen who’s running our country right now?  (Hint, literally one of the dumbest guys on Earth…)
> 
> Even if he fell out a window <please! oh please! 🙏🏻> the person who would replace him is even scarier than he is, for different reasons!
> 
> What you suggest makes sense, especially if we’re looking at individual kit.  But good decisions aren’t our thing right now.  Maybe try back in the spring to see if management has changed?


The Army (and to a certain point the RCAF and RCN have deluded themselves as to operational equipment needs for quite some time.


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> Ukrainian electrical system a lot more resilient than feared.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/z9rix7
> 
> 
> 
> 
> For those of us that live, or have lived in BC, that have survived ice storms and hurricanes it shouldn't come as big a surprise as it might.  Splicing lines, replacing poles and towers, swapping transformers..... routine maintenance.


Until you run out of transmission line transformers. Those take more than a few minutes to build.


----------



## daftandbarmy

CBH99 said:


> Questions…
> 
> -  *What doesn't* the Canadian soldier, at the individual level, lack compared to their American counterpart?



There, FTFY


----------



## Skysix

While they may be willing to be agents now, will they always be? That said, we need to get back in the HumInt game. If for no other reason than to prevent the levels of inaccurate technically based/acquired intellegence that gave us Iraqi WMD, the strong Afghan government and the mighty Russian Army.

Tinkers, Tailors and the odd mobilised Soldier should take note.









						The CIA Is Looking for Russians Who Are 'Disgusted' with the Ukraine War to Recruit as Spies
					

Marlowe's comments come after a top British intelligence official revealed last week that European countries have expelled over 400 Russian officials suspected of being spies this year.




					www.military.com
				




_Disclaimer: this message was definitely not approved by John LaCarre_


----------



## daftandbarmy

Ukrainian 'VC equivalent' winner...


----------



## Skysix

Company "commanded" by a Sgt definitely not lead. These poor guys are f'd.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Skysix said:


> Company "commanded" by a Sgt definitely not lead. These poor guys are f'd.



I've been on exercises like that


----------



## Kat Stevens

I remember this one time, nothing but chicken a la king for three days in a row. I still have nightmares.   The horror.....


----------



## Czech_pivo

Skysix said:


> Company "commanded" by a Sgt definitely not lead. These poor guys are f'd.


Its the same theme over and over again and again - abandoned - no equipment - broken equipment - shitty commanders - no training - crappy food or little food - bad accommodations or lacking proper equipment to sleep in the rough - no comms - no idea of what's expected of them - poor morale - little discipline - the list goes on and on.

But here's the thing - never once do you hear even the slightest hint of munity, never once do you hear them say, "_good people, loved ones, avenge us, rise up and overthrow those in power who have caused us all this misery, all this pain and suffering." _ You NEVER hear that at all.  It's only _"good people, help us get better equipment or tell the leaders to do a better job with us so we can get on with the job at hand. Look, we're still here, we've not surrendered, we've not ran back home." _

So, do I feel 'sorry' for these guys - to be honest, no - no I don't.  And the reason is they still don't understand that their situation is directly the result of their shitty, corrupt leaders who put them in the direct situation that they are currently in.  These guys still believe in all the propaganda that they've been fed since Putin seized power.  They still want to 'do the right thing' and finish the job in the Ukraine, but they are not being given the right tools, the right leaders to do it.  Until you start seeing the above video where its being filmed from a Ukrainian POW cage and all the complaining is being done in the same manner but instead of saying "_we as a group decided to surrender because of a lack of food, lack of equipment, leaders that ran away, being shelled by our own troops, etc, etc" - _none of this matter and they sure as shit don't have my sympathy.


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> The Army (and to a certain point the RCAF and RCN have deluded themselves as to operational equipment needs for quite some time.


Or even if they have it, its use is suspect, to wit some RCAF using NVG for higher level transit and ops, then flipping up the goggles and flying un-aided (eyes and white light only) near the ground.  😵‍💫


----------



## Furniture

Czech_pivo said:


> Its the same theme over and over again and again - abandoned - no equipment - broken equipment - shitty commanders - no training - crappy food or little food - bad accommodations or lacking proper equipment to sleep in the rough - no comms - no idea of what's expected of them - poor morale - little discipline - the list goes on and on.
> 
> But here's the thing - never once do you hear even the slightest hint of munity, never once do you hear them say, "_good people, loved ones, avenge us, rise up and overthrow those in power who have caused us all this misery, all this pain and suffering." _ You NEVER hear that at all.  It's only _"good people, help us get better equipment or tell the leaders to do a better job with us so we can get on with the job at hand. Look, we're still here, we've not surrendered, we've not ran back home." _
> 
> So, do I feel 'sorry' for these guys - to be honest, no - no I don't.  And the reason is they still don't understand that their situation is directly the result of their shitty, corrupt leaders who put them in the direct situation that they are currently in.  These guys still believe in all the propaganda that they've been fed since Putin seized power.  They still want to 'do the right thing' and finish the job in the Ukraine, but they are not being given the right tools, the right leaders to do it.  Until you start seeing the above video where its being filmed from a Ukrainian POW cage and all the complaining is being done in the same manner but instead of saying "_we as a group decided to surrender because of a lack of food, lack of equipment, leaders that ran away, being shelled by our own troops, etc, etc" - _none of this matter and they sure as shit don't have my sympathy.


Are Russians not saying those things, or are we just not seeing them say it? Also, how many who have said those sorts of things have gone MIA? 

Fear is a powerful tool, and the Russians have lived in fear of the state for hundreds of years.


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> View attachment 75243  CH-135 / UH-1N Twin Huey
> 
> 
> View attachment 75244View attachment 75245  DHC-4 / CV-2 Caribou & DHC-5 / CV-7 Buffalo
> 
> Canadian Aircraft and Mods in US Service....


Forgot the Challenger 650, Dash 8, Otter, Twin Otter, Beaver, and the full Bell line. And this thing :









						Avro Canada VZ-9 Avrocar - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org


----------



## FormerHorseGuard

KevinB said:


> Let’s be honest, the Arrow killed the Arrow.  Dreaming big is great, but it wasn’t anything more than an airframe with no avionics.
> When Canada shut it down, where did that industry and personnel go?
> Down here…
> 
> 
> 
> GDLS being a US company…



Before it was GDLS it was part of GM Canada, it was a plant that  built locomotives in Canada for CNR and CPR, plus a few short lines and regional carriers. It was done here to avoid an import and export tax on railroad equipment. Canadian locomotives could operate in the US and Vice Versa but import taxes made it more expensive.

Locomotives built in the London plant cost  $191 712.00  in the 1950s, but importing the same locomotive from the New York plant cost an additional $115 000.00 in taxes.

They were cheaper and built a lot of Canadian operated locomotives, most railroads are international and cross provinces and state borders, all subject to taxes as they cross various lines.

They started to build construction  equipment and buses in the excess space and line production, which lead to light armor vehicles being built.
Free Trade came along and they slowly moved the locomotive division out of Canada,  to Mexico and the US. Cheaper wages and benefits, and unions.

They merged the company with GDLS then eventually sold it to GD.

GD also purchased the assets of the company that makes M1A1 tanks

Every times there is a protest of sales over seas there is talk of the plant closing, every time Canada looks new equipment or upgrades they talk about closing the plant unless they get the contract.  It is like a hostage taking situation.  Do this or we close.

The Arrow, great jet by all accounts,  but it was going no where faster than it could fly.  It would of been one of a kind jet in the NATO fleet, no spare parts any where, outside of Canada. The US aircraft market were going to use their cash and lobby groups to make the US government make sure no other country purchased the Arrow by under selling the price of the US jets already up and flying.  The other countries considered air force equipment to be of National interest and little to no chance of buying from another country.

Where did the skilled labour and design pool end up, all over the US aircraft makers  production lines, you can see arrow ideas in various US Aircraft.

If Canada ever got serious about the GDLS protests and sales it would see the company pulled out of London


----------



## Kirkhill

Hard day at the office - but safe home.



__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/zah7lc


----------



## Kirkhill

Are we starting to get somewhere?









						Russia ready to abandon Zaporizhzhia NPP in exchange for transit of oil and gas through Ukraine
					

Russia is ready to leave the territory of the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in exchange for uninterrupted transit of oil and gas through Ukraine.




					www.pravda.com.ua


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> Are we starting to get somewhere?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia ready to abandon Zaporizhzhia NPP in exchange for transit of oil and gas through Ukraine
> 
> 
> Russia is ready to leave the territory of the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in exchange for uninterrupted transit of oil and gas through Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.pravda.com.ua


----------



## Kirkhill

Satellite images show Russia is making a big gamble on how it plans to defend territory near Crimea from Ukraine
					

Russian defensive positions have been constructed along ground lines of communication like roads but seem to ignore the open terrain in between.




					www.businessinsider.com
				






> Russian forces have set up defensive lines and positions in territory leading toward Crimea.
> But their fortifications focus on roads and highways, rather than fields and open terrain.
> This is a gamble for Putin's troops and could make them vulnerable to Ukrainian offensives.





> Russian defensive positions have been built along critical ground lines of communication like roads and highways and connect Russian forces at the Dnipro River with other occupied areas to the southeast, like Crimea and the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, according to an assessment this week from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank.
> 
> These positions exist in the form of trenches and dragon's teeth anti-tank defenses, the ISW assessment said, referring to a decades-old strategy consisting of hardened fortifications that are built to slow and stop heavy armor. But instead of connecting communication lines across the battlefield, the positions appear more like "elaborate roadblocks" that don't stray too far from the roads or into the fields.


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


>



Hope springs eternal!


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> Are we starting to get somewhere?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia ready to abandon Zaporizhzhia NPP in exchange for transit of oil and gas through Ukraine
> 
> 
> Russia is ready to leave the territory of the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in exchange for uninterrupted transit of oil and gas through Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.pravda.com.ua


The only reason the RuAF will leave ENPP is if they are planning on blowing it up in a glass flag.   ENPP provided power to a great portion of Ukraine, and more importantly due to being a Nuclear Power Plant, gives Russia an ace of a defensive position as UA won’t shell it.   Meaning any Ukrainian efforts on retaking ENPP will be very costly in terms of personnel, especially SOF.


----------



## Kirkhill

I don't know.  It seems to me that they are starting to put some usable chips in play.  Borders are political and visible.  Pipelines, oil, gas and Euros are invisible,  as are sheĺl companies.  Russian gas has been flowing through Ukraine to the EU through much of the current unpleasantness.

Which is more important to Vlad's oligarchs?  The state of Vlad's borders or their bank accounts?


----------



## Spencer100

Which is more important to Vlad's oligarchs?  The state of Vlad's borders or their bank accounts?
[/QUOTE]

I think at the oligarchs hope at this time is not tripping out a window or acidential suicide with three bullets in the back of the head.  

I did think the 5 bullets from four guns suicide must be some kind of record.


----------



## KevinB

Lockheed gets HIMARS contract to replenish stock sent to Ukraine
					

Lockheed Martin is getting nearly $500 million from the U.S. Army to rapidly build more missiles launchers to replace those sent to Ukraine.




					www.defensenews.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Spencer100 said:


> Which is more important to Vlad's oligarchs?  The state of Vlad's borders or their bank accounts?



I think at the oligarchs hope at this time is not tripping out a window or acidential suicide with three bullets in the back of the head. 

I did think the 5 bullets from four guns suicide must be some kind of record.
[/QUOTE]

Speaking of tripping down the stairs....









						Vladimir Putin 'fell down stairs at his home and soiled himself'
					

Vladimir Putin fell down the stairs of his official residence on Wednesday night, bruised his coccyx and 'involuntarily defecated', the General SVR Telegram channel has claimed.




					www.dailymail.co.uk
				




It's in the Daily Mail.  It must be true.


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> Are we starting to get somewhere?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia ready to abandon Zaporizhzhia NPP in exchange for transit of oil and gas through Ukraine
> 
> 
> Russia is ready to leave the territory of the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in exchange for uninterrupted transit of oil and gas through Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.pravda.com.ua


Don't believe it is voluntary. They are trying to find a way to increase oil and gas revenue to support the war at the same time as stopping a fight they will lose militarily/ politically AND to sew the seeds of disagreement in the west to weaken support for Ukraine 

Would be a win-win-win for Putin but I see no real upside for Ukraine so as much as the west might like to see it happen this way, I doubt it will. Time is on Ukraine's side as long as the west continues support. If it was my decision I would give a Snake Island reply, and I am 100% sure there are smarter people in the Ukrainian high command than I.


----------



## Kirkhill

From the Daily Kos



UPDATE: Friday, Dec 2, 2022 · 1:34:57 PM MST · Mark Sumner
What do you do if all of your soldiers just walk away from the base? This video reportedly shows conscripts in the city of Kazan just leaving the base en masse. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1598776855942860811


----------



## Kirkhill

A couple of other good Daily Kos summaries.









						Ukraine update: Advances near Svatove and Kreminna show that Ukrainian forces are still on the move
					

UPDATE: Friday, Dec 2, 2022 · 8:41:01 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner On the “it’s all one front” front, here’s what’s happening down near Donetsk. Russian forces engaged in small scale assaults against Ukrainian troops in a number of towns, with the biggest...




					www.dailykos.com
				












						Ukraine update: Let's take stock of the current front lines
					

UPDATE: Saturday, Nov 26, 2022 · 3:26:54 PM +00:00 · kos What misery. As I noted yesterday, what was Russia’s five axes of attack at the start of the war has been gradually whittled down to a single front in The Donbas. Still, it’s a long front line,...




					www.dailykos.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Judging from this video, via Daily Kos, the ground seems to be firming up again in the Svatove district.  Possibly due to colder temps?
That may be helping the Ukrainians to manoeuver a bit better.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1598656873687035905


----------



## daftandbarmy

Skysix said:


> Don't believe it is voluntary. They are trying to find a way to increase oil and gas revenue to support the war at the same time as stopping a fight they will lose militarily/ politically AND to sew the seeds of disagreement in the west to weaken support for Ukraine
> 
> Would be a win-win-win for Putin but I see no real upside for Ukraine so as much as the west might like to see it happen this way, I doubt it will. Time is on Ukraine's side as long as the west continues support. If it was my decision I would give a Snake Island reply, and I am 100% sure there are smarter people in the Ukrainian high command than I.



This clip suggests they're pulling out because they're getting pounded by UA artillery....









						US open to Ukraine peace talks
					

Stuart Ray from McKenzie Intelligence analyses President Joe Biden's comments regarding talks with Vladimir Putin about ending the war in Ukraine.




					news.sky.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Meanwhile,  moving on from Fantasians?



> “interesting development that occurred over the course of the last 12 to 24 months in the NATO parlance is an acknowledgment that we need to focus on a real-world threat.
> 
> “And what I mean by that is there, for very important and for political reasons, there had been a practice, or still is, [that] we need to reassure political leaders within NATO that [exercises are] appropriate, safe to do and they need to give [their] blessing in order to do it,” she said. “But on the military side, there’s an acknowledgment that… if we’re going to be plans-based as we align our exercises, we need to be threat-informed as well, which is a very important, very powerful development that is going on right now.”











						To deter Russia, EUCOM official stresses 'threat-informed' exercises - Breaking Defense
					

Maj. Gen. Jessica Meyeraan said an “interesting development that occurred over the course of the last 12 to 24 months in the NATO parlance is an acknowledgment that we need to focus on a real-world threat.”




					breakingdefense.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> From the Daily Kos
> 
> 
> 
> UPDATE: Friday, Dec 2, 2022 · 1:34:57 PM MST · Mark Sumner
> What do you do if all of your soldiers just walk away from the base? This video reportedly shows conscripts in the city of Kazan just leaving the base en masse.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1598776855942860811



Defmon confirms hard ground


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1598776572290351104


----------



## Maxman1

Kirkhill said:


> Speaking of tripping down the stairs....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Vladimir Putin 'fell down stairs at his home and soiled himself'
> 
> 
> Vladimir Putin fell down the stairs of his official residence on Wednesday night, bruised his coccyx and 'involuntarily defecated', the General SVR Telegram channel has claimed.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.dailymail.co.uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It's in the Daily Mail.  It must be true.



I'm sure they'll have him on his feet in no time.


----------



## Furniture

Kirkhill said:


> I think at the oligarchs hope at this time is not tripping out a window or acidential suicide with three bullets in the back of the head.
> 
> I did think the 5 bullets from four guns suicide must be some kind of record.



Speaking of tripping down the stairs....









						Vladimir Putin 'fell down stairs at his home and soiled himself'
					

Vladimir Putin fell down the stairs of his official residence on Wednesday night, bruised his coccyx and 'involuntarily defecated', the General SVR Telegram channel has claimed.




					www.dailymail.co.uk
				




It's in the Daily Mail.  It must be true.
[/QUOTE]
I've fallen down a few sets of stairs over the years, but never so hard I soiled myself... That's quite a tumble.


----------



## Skysix

Interesting well researched possible root cause analysis of Russia's actions since 1991. BLUF: Sevastopol naval base.


----------



## Portnord

Kirkhill said:


> Hard day at the office - but safe home.
> 
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/zah7lc


Looks like Ripley got them out of another xenomorph nest.


----------



## brihard

Skysix said:


> Interesting well researched possible root cause analysis of Russia's actions since 1991. BLUF: Sevastopol naval base.


Yup. Sevastopol is a _strategic_ location for Russia. A lot will probably turn on Ukraine’s ability to threaten/deny its use over the long term. That’s arguably the one biggest tangible thing Russia could concretely and materially _lose_ from this blunder. And it’s a big deal.


----------



## WLSC

Very interesting interview with a Brits who just came back from Ukraine as a member of the Ukraine Foreign Legion.  He’s talking a bit about other nation ex military in the Legion and a retired Canadian Colonel, probably known by some people here.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Very interesting article in _Foreign Affairs_ - I'm not going to quote it at length, your library should subscribe, if it doesn't then tell your local mayor or base commander that you need a new, competent librarian.

Here is they key point: "... there will be a strong temptation to downgrade Russia as a threat. That would be a mistake, and not just because the war has yet to be won. In Ukraine and elsewhere, the more vulnerable Moscow perceives itself to be, the more it will try to offset those vulnerabilities by relying on unconventional tools—including nuclear weapons. In other words, Russian power and influence may be diminished, but that does not mean Russia will become dramatically less threatening. Instead, some aspects of the threat are likely to worsen. For the West, recognizing that reality means abandoning any near-term hopes of a chastened Russia and maintaining support for Russia’s targets. That effort should begin in Ukraine: the United States and its allies must provide sustained support to Kyiv to ensure that Russia suffers a defeat. But even if Putin loses, the problem that Russia poses will not be solved. In many ways, it will grow in intensity. So, too, should the response to it."

The reticule concluders by saying that "As the United States and its allies cope with the current Putin regime and think about what might eventually follow it, they would do well to remember the old adage that Russia is never as strong as it looks or as weak as it looks. The country often goes through cycles of resurgence, stagnation, and decline. Even with its capacity and global standing diminished by its war in Ukraine, Russia will continue to be driven by its resentments, a quest for a geopolitical space outside its borders, and a desire for status. Washington cannot afford to write Russia off in an effort to ease its own mind, nor should it imagine that Europe can manage the problem on its own. The threat may evolve, but it will persist."


----------



## GR66

brihard said:


> Yup. Sevastopol is a _strategic_ location for Russia. A lot will probably turn on Ukraine’s ability to threaten/deny its use over the long term. That’s arguably the one biggest tangible thing Russia could concretely and materially _lose_ from this blunder. And it’s a big deal.


As I've said before I think the risk of losing Sevastopol is the most likely thing that could lead to nuclear escalation by Russia.


----------



## brihard

GR66 said:


> As I've said before I think the risk of losing Sevastopol is the most likely thing that could lead to nuclear escalation by Russia.


Then they still lose Sevastopol; they just lose a whole bunch more of their army too.


----------



## Skysix

brihard said:


> Then they still lose Sevastopol; they just lose a whole bunch more of their army too.


They don't care about their army. They can always breed and conscript more. But they DO care about Murmansk and Vladivostok


----------



## GR66

WLSC said:


> Very interesting interview with a Brits who just came back from Ukraine as a member of the Ukraine Foreign Legion.  He’s talking a bit about other nation ex military in the Legion and a retired Canadian Colonel, probably known by some people here.


Some interesting bits in the interview.  In addition to the his general impressions about the people from various nations serving there (including Canadians),  I found it notable how he commented on the general lack of basic field skills among many of the volunteers - even those with long military service.

He also noted the importance of indirect fire in the conflict....stated that likely only 1% of casualties were caused by small arms and most of the rest were from artillery guns, rockets, mortars, etc.  He also noted that a significant number of the volunteers couldn't handle being on the receiving end of indirect fire.


----------



## KevinB

GR66 said:


> Some interesting bits in the interview.  In addition to the his general impressions about the people from various nations serving there (including Canadians),  I found it notable how he commented on the general lack of basic field skills among many of the volunteers - even those with long military service.


One could surmise that a lot of the GWOT ‘lessons’ didn’t translate to a conflict like Ukraine is facing. 



GR66 said:


> He also noted the importance of indirect fire in the conflict....stated that likely only 1% of casualties were caused by small arms and most of the rest were from artillery guns, rockets, mortars, etc.  He also noted that a significant number of the volunteers couldn't handle being on the receiving end of indirect fire.


Indirect Fire results can result in feelings of helplessness.    Enemies that can be engaged give one a focus and an ability (or at least perception of an ability) to react and counter, but an unseen untouchable enemy is a threat that cannot be countered directly. 

I sat in a briefing in Ft Benning by a UA officer that the vast majority of their small arms engagements were under 50m and anything past 200m was virtually unheard of outside of snipers.  Anything past 200m was generally crew served systems and beyond.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

GR66 said:


> Some interesting bits in the interview.  In addition to the his general impressions about the people from various nations serving there (including Canadians),  I found it notable how he commented on the general lack of basic field skills among many of the volunteers - even those with long military service.
> 
> He also noted the importance of indirect fire in the conflict....stated that likely only 1% of casualties were caused by small arms and most of the rest were from artillery guns, rockets, mortars, etc.  He also noted that a significant number of the volunteers couldn't handle being on the receiving end of indirect fire.


Mess tins and small stoves. How to light a fire. Seems like skills and equipment that PRes could easily practice.


----------



## WLSC

GR66 said:


> Some interesting bits in the interview.  In addition to the his general impressions about the people from various nations serving there (including Canadians),  I found it notable how he commented on the general lack of basic field skills among many of the volunteers - even those with long military service.
> 
> He also noted the importance of indirect fire in the conflict....stated that likely only 1% of casualties were caused by small arms and most of the rest were from artillery guns, rockets, mortars, etc.  He also noted that a significant number of the volunteers couldn't handle being on the receiving end of indirect fire.



That’s what I remarked also.  Good old “basic de base”.


----------



## GR66

Colin Parkinson said:


> Mess tins and small stoves. How to light a fire. Seems like skills and equipment that PRes could easily practice.


One of his stories was kind of telling...he asked some of his platoon mates to gather some kindling for his stove and many of the city guys didn't know how to select the right kind of wood.  It just wasn't part of their lived experiences.  Maybe the CAF needs a bit more "Boy Scout" in its training to make up for what used to be assumed knowledge from most recruits?


----------



## Kirkhill

More Ukrainian PsyOps - especially when contrasted with numb, hypothermic Russians being bombed in trenches.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/zb2dri


----------



## Kirkhill

First hand account of Ukrainian response to the Russian assault on Hostomel by a Ukrainian Air Assault Trooper - after initial contact spent two weeks with his four man team spotting artillery.  Retired into the local community for food and rest and returned to his OP.

Disregard the cartoons.


----------



## Kirkhill

How did the Ukrainian Radars survive the original Russian onslaught?
Short answer:  They didn't.
They were rapidly repaired.

The value of qualified technicians in the field.









						How russians Failed to Eliminate Ukraine’s Radars at the Beginning of the Full-Scale War   | Defense Express
					

And what reserve helped Ukraine’s air defense to maintain control over the sky and thwart the russia’s plans




					en.defence-ua.com


----------



## RangerRay

GR66 said:


> One of his stories was kind of telling...he asked some of his platoon mates to gather some kindling for his stove and many of the city guys didn't know how to select the right kind of wood.  It just wasn't part of their lived experiences.  Maybe the CAF needs a bit more "Boy Scout" in its training to make up for what used to be assumed knowledge from most recruits?


When I was in, fires were a no-no for what we were told were tactical reasons.  So not surprised that many troops wouldn’t have a clue about making fires unless they went camping on their own time.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

GR66 said:


> One of his stories was kind of telling...he asked some of his platoon mates to gather some kindling for his stove and many of the city guys didn't know how to select the right kind of wood.  It just wasn't part of their lived experiences.  Maybe the CAF needs a bit more "Boy Scout" in its training to make up for what used to be assumed knowledge from most recruits?


Keep in mind that is the same reason that Baden-Powell started the Boy Scouts in the first place, to many men were joining the army with no basic skills to stay alive in the field. What old is new.


----------



## Kirkhill

Until I saw that video I had never heard of the Ghillie Kettle.  Seems like a handy piece of kit.  Except for the Tactical Whistle.






						Ghillie Camping Kettles: Wood Fired Kettles for Hiking, Fishing, Hunting & Camping
					

Ghillie camping kettles! The most amazing wood fired kettles for hiking, fishing, hunting, camping and anything in between! Watch how they work and order yours today with free shipping in USA!




					www.campingkettle.com


----------



## GR66

RangerRay said:


> When I was in, fires were a no-no for what we were told were tactical reasons.  So not surprised that many troops wouldn’t have a clue about making fires unless they went camping on their own time.


I think his point was that may Western armies train and equip with the assumption that we'll have excellent logistics to keep up with the troops so we don't issue them the equipment or give them the training required to survive on their own in the field for a period of time if required.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Kirkhill said:


> Until I saw that video I had never heard of the Ghillie Kettle.  Seems like a handy piece of kit.  Except for the Tactical Whistle.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ghillie Camping Kettles: Wood Fired Kettles for Hiking, Fishing, Hunting & Camping
> 
> 
> Ghillie camping kettles! The most amazing wood fired kettles for hiking, fishing, hunting, camping and anything in between! Watch how they work and order yours today with free shipping in USA!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.campingkettle.com


Very popular with the British overlanders


----------



## rmc_wannabe

GR66 said:


> I think his point was that may Western armies train and equip with the assumption that we'll have excellent logistics to keep up with the troops so we don't issue them the equipment or give them the training required to survive on their own in the field for a period of time if required.



It's very true. I had to explain how to dig a latrine to some folks during a remote exercise because they had never conducted training outside of areas with Blue Rockets. 

Same goes for stoves and lanterns: all well and good if you have a consistent supply mechanism in place to restock, but it can be absolutely heartbreaking when the naptha tap runs dry. "Yukon stoves?! Are you crazy? You can't have fires in the training area!" 

And yet, we are shocked when dudes are without creature comforts. 

"What do you mean we don't have a DFAC? Wow...Sodexo and KBR really dropped the ball on this one..." 

"Sir, this is a trench line in Kharvik Oblast...."


----------



## Kirkhill

Rebuilding T72s in Czechia for Ukraine









						Excalibur Army modernizes 90 tanks for Ukraine
					

The Czech Excalibur Army company restores and modernizes Т-72 tanks for Ukraine




					mil.in.ua


----------



## Kirkhill

Probing continues


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599126881164402688


----------



## RangerRay

GR66 said:


> I think his point was that may Western armies train and equip with the assumption that we'll have excellent logistics to keep up with the troops so we don't issue them the equipment or give them the training required to survive on their own in the field for a period of time if required.


I would still be too paranoid that the flame and smoke might attract unwanted attention from snipers and artillery.


----------



## GR66

RangerRay said:


> I would still be too paranoid that the flame and smoke might attract unwanted attention from snipers and artillery.


We're not talking about someone sitting in an OP having a quick brew up.  We're talking about having the ability to have warm food and drink behind the lines when the loggies have been too busy bringing you bullets and Carl-G reloads to bring you naptha and boil-in-bag meals.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

RangerRay said:


> I would still be too paranoid that the flame and smoke might attract unwanted attention from snipers and artillery.



They probably have already seen you if they're that close to notice flames and smoke. Drones, thermal, EW, all of it makes it much harder to play "cat and mouse" about why things are seen. 

Frankly, dudes on the Russian side are dying from exposure at about the same rate as IDF, DF, and engagements with the UGF. I would roll the dice and to stay warm and quick-witted, vice being a Troopscile who left a beautiful, camouflaged corpse to walk over.


----------



## Skysix

GR66 said:


> I think his point was that may Western armies train and equip with the assumption that we'll have excellent logistics to keep up with the troops so we don't issue them the equipment or give them the training required to survive on their own in the field for a period of time if required.


When did we stop issuing mess tins? They were still in the 84 pattern webbing


----------



## NavyShooter

Skysix said:


> When did we stop issuing mess tins? They were still in the 84 pattern webbing


I still have mine in my gear...but I'm a sailor in an army unit....so I'm probably doing it wrong.


----------



## Skysix

rmc_wannabe said:


> They probably have already seen you if they're that close to notice flames and smoke. Drones, thermal, EW, all of it makes it much harder to play "cat and mouse" about why things are seen.
> 
> Frankly, dudes on the Russian side are dying from exposure at about the same rate as IDF, DF, and engagements with the UGF. I would roll the dice and to stay warm and quick-witted, vice being a Troopscile who left a beautiful, camouflaged corpse to walk over.


A sterno or the US style folding thin brick stoves (C4 burns nicely) or a twig stove/kettle thingy, located at the end of a 6' long trench with adequate full length overhead cover might work if used briefly.
Proper clothing and training would also help.

The 1950's wool and sheepskin winter pants and flight suits were far better than the 70's flamable thin combats with cotton underwear and meltable nylon wind pants for warmth, and the Gortex/fleece from the 90's is fine to about -25 but after that you do not generate enough body heat (unless dragging a sled etc) to create the vapor pressure necessary to push the moisture laden air out before it condenses and freezes to the inside of the Gortex making you even colder.

my experience, yours may vary (N. AB PRes 84-95, JTFN 95-01)


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> A sterno or the US style folding thin brick stoves (C4 burns nicely) or a twig stove/kettle thingy, located at the end of a 6' long trench with adequate full length overhead cover might work if used briefly.
> Proper clothing and training would also help.
> 
> The 1950's wool and sheepskin winter pants and flight suits were far better than the 70's flamable thin combats with cotton underwear and meltable nylon wind pants for warmth, and the Gortex/fleece from the 90's is fine to about -25 but after that you do not generate enough body heat (unless dragging a sled etc) to create the vapor pressure necessary to push the moisture laden air out before it condenses and freezes to the inside of the Gortex making you even colder.
> 
> my experience, yours may vary (N. AB PRes 84-95, JTFN 95-01)


The old stuff was fine if dealing with "a dry cold".  I was not impressed when mucking around Gagetown swamps in February.  Everything sucked up water.


----------



## ueo

RangerRay said:


> I would still be too paranoid that the flame and smoke might attract unwanted attention from snipers and artillery.


On an active or near active battlespace?  Cmon!


----------



## WLSC

rmc_wannabe said:


> It's very true. I had to explain how to dig a latrine to some folks during a remote exercise because they had never conducted training outside of areas with Blue Rockets.
> 
> Same goes for stoves and lanterns: all well and good if you have a consistent supply mechanism in place to restock, but it can be absolutely heartbreaking when the naptha tap runs dry. "Yukon stoves?! Are you crazy? You can't have fires in the training area!"
> 
> And yet, we are shocked when dudes are without creature comforts.
> 
> "What do you mean we don't have a DFAC? Wow...Sodexo and KBR really dropped the ball on this one..."
> 
> "Sir, this is a trench line in Kharvik Oblast...."



Until the end, everywhere I’ve gone, I had my little mountain stove, a small french press and ground coffee.  Hot water was only at 2 min from me.  Someone told be it was useless, heavier and took the pace for sucks, until I offer him a warm soup at -15 🤷🏼‍♂️😁!


----------



## WLSC

RangerRay said:


> I would still be too paranoid that the flame and smoke might attract unwanted attention from snipers and artillery.



Dig dealer, build a lightproof hootchy, use a house, destroyed vehicle, etc…


----------



## McG

Putin’s war is losing popularity amongst Russians.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599295144825704448


----------



## Kirkhill

WLSC said:


> Dig dealer, build a lightproof hootchy, use a house, destroyed vehicle, etc…








						Kelly Kettle Stainless Steel Scout Camp Kettle  | Canadian Outdoor Equipment Co.
					

The Kelly Kettle Stainless Steel Scout Kettle features a shorter profile than the Base Camp or Trekker models, but maintains a capacity of 1.3L. Suitable for groups of 3 or 4. Uses readily available materials (pinecones, bark, grasses, twigs) for fuel.




					www.canadianoutdoorequipment.com
				




Looking at the design, and the efficiency claims, I don't think there would be much of a thermal signature.  The "kettle" wraps around the "chimney" and the water in the kettle seem likely to absorb the vast majority of the available heat.  The temperature perceived from the outside is likely to be the temperature of the water rather than the temperature of the fire, except for whatever heat escapes up the chimney.











The only downside I can find is the weight and size - but is it that much more cumbersome than a Coleman lantern and a can of Naphtha?   Or even a propane stove and a couple of propane bottles?


----------



## Kirkhill

Back to Ukraine

Russia started probing a year before it crossed the border.



			https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/12/04/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-rusi-report/
		




> *Russia’s military build-up on Ukraine’s borders began in March 2021* when a greater force of conventional troops was added to existing forces along Ukraine’s borders. The rationale behind this move was to provide “an opportunity for Moscow to assess the reaction of Ukraine’s international partners.”
> 
> However, the threat posed by this build-up was dismissed by Ukraine’s allies “because they did not observe the necessary enablers deployed with the Russian formations nor the necessary political shaping of the information environment in Russia to support an invasion.”
> 
> 
> This in turn confirmed to the Kremlin that enablers could be brought to the formations faster than Ukraine’s partners could bring military capabilities.
> 
> The lack of deterrence on the part of Ukraine’s allies was an “important reason for undertaking the full-scale invasion” as it gave the Kremlin the confidence that “it could invade Ukraine without significant international interference.”


----------



## Kirkhill

Chornobaivka is the airport at Kherson.  It was a major military command centre.  It got hit by Ukrainian artillery more than 20 times with report losses of Generals, staff, helicopters and other equipment.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/zc3vyh


----------



## Kirkhill

Further to the Ukrainian probing on the Left Bank at Kherson

The "Carlson" Unit


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599174413739388928








						State flag hoisted on left bank of Kherson region
					

Ukrainian forces continue their offensive along the entire front line.The Ukrainian military hoisted a national flag on the left bank of the Kherson region. This was the first time since the Russian occupation of the south began, it was reported on the Facebook page of the "Karlson"...




					en.socportal.info
				












						The Ukrainian Armed Forces tell us what is happening on the Left Bank
					

The enemy transports collaborators and families of traitors away from the front line.The Russian occupiers, who were forced to flee from the right bank of the Dnieper river in Kherson Region, understand that their defeat is inevitable.




					en.socportal.info


----------



## daftandbarmy

Infantry gonna Infantry....


----------



## Skysix

Germany will be out of some types of ammunition within 2 hours, and will be combat ineffective from lack of supplies in 2 days.






And this is not news...






And where does Canada stand in terms of even supporting its own single brigade in high intensity combat in Latvia?

** rhetorical question **


----------



## MilEME09

Skysix said:


> And where does Canada stand in terms of even supporting its own single brigade in high intensity combat in Latvia?
> 
> ** rhetorical question **


You mean our company +? Probably not in as good a shape as we would like


----------



## daftandbarmy

Canada gets a mention at the start of this ... looks like a BMP crew might be Canadian?


----------



## MilEME09

daftandbarmy said:


> Canada gets a mention at the start of this ... looks like a BMP crew might be Canadian?


Possible, or the crew commander might be atleast


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Russian repair shops


----------



## Maxman1

How nice of them to fix up tanks for Ukraine.


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> You mean our company +? Probably not in as good a shape as we would like


Can someone please explain to me why the gun barrel drops immediately after firing?  Is this only a Soviet armament trait?


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Czech_pivo said:


> Can someone please explain to me why the gun barrel drops immediately after firing?  Is this only a Soviet armament trait?


Likely to align with the auto loader and case ejector


----------



## RaceAddict

Necessity of the mother of invention: 






						U.S. Has Sent Threat-Emitters To Ukraine To Confuse Russian Aircraft | Aviation Week Network
					

Sharing low-cost emitters with Ukrainian forces is one innovative way to help complicate the air picture for Russia.




					aviationweek.com


----------



## FormerHorseGuard

RaceAddict said:


> Necessity of the mother of invention:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> U.S. Has Sent Threat-Emitters To Ukraine To Confuse Russian Aircraft | Aviation Week Network
> 
> 
> Sharing low-cost emitters with Ukrainian forces is one innovative way to help complicate the air picture for Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> aviationweek.com


why make this public,  always thought electronic warfare stuff was stuff you kept secret,   but certainly make every aircraft movement more cautious


----------



## daftandbarmy

He must be taking Trudeau's advice 


Germany backtracks on defense spending promises made after Ukraine invasion​Days after Russia invaded Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz pledged to meet long ignored military spending targets of 2 percent of GDP.


BERLIN — Germany on Monday walked back its promise to swiftly raise defense spending to at least 2 percent of its economic output — breaching the key commitment made days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to become a more serious military force.

Berlin also sought to play down internal warnings about delays to a flagship procurement of new fighter jets.

During a government press conference, Chief Spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit scaled down expectations for Germany’s defense spending, telling journalists that the 2 percent target would be missed not only this year, but also likely next year: “It’s still open whether that [goal] will be achieved” in 2023, Hebestreit said, adding that his “cautious expectation” was that Germany would still meet the target within this legislative period, which ends in 2025.

The spokesperson’s remarks come amid growing criticism regarding the state of Germany’s military capabilities nine months after Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a _Zeitenwende_, or sea change, in German defense and security policy. Last week, Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht came under heavy fire from within her own government coalition after it emerged that she did not order sufficient spare ammunition supplies despite long-known shortages.








						Germany backtracks on defense spending promises made after Ukraine invasion
					

Days after Russia invaded Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz pledged to meet long ignored military spending targets of 2 percent of GDP.




					www.politico.eu


----------



## armrdsoul77

Colin Parkinson said:


> Russian repair shops


How is the gun barrel secured to a tank?

Can the barrels be refurbished or are they toast?


----------



## GR66

daftandbarmy said:


> He must be taking Trudeau's advice
> 
> 
> Germany backtracks on defense spending promises made after Ukraine invasion​Days after Russia invaded Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz pledged to meet long ignored military spending targets of 2 percent of GDP.
> 
> 
> BERLIN — Germany on Monday walked back its promise to swiftly raise defense spending to at least 2 percent of its economic output — breaching the key commitment made days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to become a more serious military force.
> 
> Berlin also sought to play down internal warnings about delays to a flagship procurement of new fighter jets.
> 
> During a government press conference, Chief Spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit scaled down expectations for Germany’s defense spending, telling journalists that the 2 percent target would be missed not only this year, but also likely next year: “It’s still open whether that [goal] will be achieved” in 2023, Hebestreit said, adding that his “cautious expectation” was that Germany would still meet the target within this legislative period, which ends in 2025.
> 
> The spokesperson’s remarks come amid growing criticism regarding the state of Germany’s military capabilities nine months after Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a _Zeitenwende_, or sea change, in German defense and security policy. Last week, Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht came under heavy fire from within her own government coalition after it emerged that she did not order sufficient spare ammunition supplies despite long-known shortages.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Germany backtracks on defense spending promises made after Ukraine invasion
> 
> 
> Days after Russia invaded Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz pledged to meet long ignored military spending targets of 2 percent of GDP.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.politico.eu


At least Germany is just talking about a delay in meeting the 2% of GDP defence spending goal.  To my knowledge we still haven't even make a commitment to try and meet that goal.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

GR66 said:


> At least Germany is just talking about a delay in meeting the 2% of GDP defence spending goal.  To my knowledge we still haven't even make a commitment to try and meet that goal.



And we never will. To reach that goal would be political suicide for any party within Canada.


----------



## YZT580

rmc_wannabe said:


> And we never will. To reach that goal would be political suicide for any party within Canada.


Not if it was approached correctly as a united presentation from both major parties which I admit is almost as likely as getting all parties in Haiti to agree upon intervention.


----------



## brihard

FormerHorseGuard said:


> why make this public,  always thought electronic warfare stuff was stuff you kept secret,   but certainly make every aircraft movement more cautious


Might be either it leaked, or alternatively they want to further mind-fuck the Russians and cause them to even further doubt what they’re detecting or shooting at?


----------



## NavyShooter

If our GDP drops based on the upcoming recession/depression, but our spending stays the same, we'll get closer to the 2% target.

Is that success?


----------



## Czech_pivo

rmc_wannabe said:


> And we never will. To reach that goal would be political suicide for any party within Canada.


Until one of these things occur:
1) We all wake up one fine morning and are told we're all Americans now
2) We all wake up one fine morning and Russia has occupied a Canadian island in the Arctic
3) We all wake up one fine morning and China has occupied a Canadian island in the Arctic.

Personally I believe that #1 will occur over the other 2 options.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Until one of these things occur:
> 1) We all wake up one fine morning and are told we're all Americans now
> 2) We all wake up one fine morning and Russia has occupied a Canadian island in the Arctic
> 3) We all wake up one fine morning and China has occupied a Canadian island in the Arctic.
> 
> Personally I believe that #1 will occur over the other 2 options.


We don't want you.
Just your resources, as who wants a bunch more sniveling self entitles clown we have enough down here already...


----------



## Skysix

KevinB said:


> who wants a bunch more sniveling self entitled clowns, we have enough down here already...


Truth


----------



## Czech_pivo

KevinB said:


> We don't want you.
> Just your resources, as who wants a bunch more sniveling self entitles clown we have enough down here already...


You can have both.
Simply make us a new version of Puerto Rico.  No new Senators and a one size fits all approach to Representatives to Congress, voila, it's done without a shot being fired.  If you want to 'cut' Quebec out of the equation you can, makes them happy and the majority of the US happy as well (more 'Freedom fries' and less 'French fries').  That would also offer can 'escape' valve for all those self-righteous CDN's who still want to live in 'Canada' and not in the US, as long as they can learn french.


----------



## Mills Bomb

Explosions rock two Russian airbases far from Ukraine frontline
					

Russia confirms blasts at military facilities as Kyiv finds way to target long-range bombers




					www.theguardian.com
				




If a couple Tu-95's were actually destroyed, that's basically an irreplaceable loss. And it effects nuclear deterrence. Let's cross our fingers they can't be repaired and the damage is extensive enough to make a couple more of them obsolete. 

As far as I know, these are like the B52's in that you can't simply build more of them, or it would be EXTREMELY costly and difficult if possible.


----------



## FJAG

KevinB said:


> We don't want you.
> Just your resources, as who wants a bunch more sniveling self entitles clown we have enough down here already...


Meh. You're just worried with Canada in, the Republicans won't even be able to get elected as dog catchers.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Czech_pivo said:


> You can have both.
> Simply make us a new version of Puerto Rico.  No new Senators and a one size fits all approach to Representatives to Congress, voila, it's done without a shot being fired.  If you want to 'cut' Quebec out of the equation you can, makes them happy and the majority of the US happy as well (more 'Freedom fries' and less 'French fries').  That would also offer can 'escape' valve for all those self-righteous CDN's who still want to live in 'Canada' and not in the US, as long as they can learn french.



Never forget: the US needs Canada as a place to exile all its second string football players, and thus drive greater competition amongst NFL players.

#footballgulagarchipelago


----------



## Quirky

rmc_wannabe said:


> And we never will. To reach that goal would be political suicide for any party within Canada.



Even if we significantly increased defence spending on equipment, it would just sit idle in hangars and warehouses because no one is joining.


----------



## Furniture

Quirky said:


> Even if we significantly increased defence spending on equipment, it would just sit idle in hangars and warehouses because no one is joining.


If we had kit we could likely get a few more people.


----------



## KevinB

Quirky said:


> Even if we significantly increased defence spending on equipment, it would just sit idle in hangars and warehouses because no one is joining.





Furniture said:


> If we had kit we could likely get a few more people.



It’s a vicious circle. No kit, no ‘sexy’ missions, no sexy missions, no recruits. 
   The GoC is thrilled.


----------



## Kirkhill

Mills Bomb said:


> Explosions rock two Russian airbases far from Ukraine frontline
> 
> 
> Russia confirms blasts at military facilities as Kyiv finds way to target long-range bombers
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> If a couple Tu-95's were actually destroyed, that's basically an irreplaceable loss. And it effects nuclear deterrence. Let's cross our fingers they can't be repaired and the damage is extensive enough to make a couple more of them obsolete.
> 
> As far as I know, these are like the B52's in that you can't simply build more of them, or it would be EXTREMELY costly and difficult if possible.




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599876541848391680


> We have the official version of the Ministry of Defense of Russia about today's events - the Ukrainian army with the help of Soviet unmanned reconnaissance aircraft Tu-141 'Strizh' (Swift), 1979 production, tried to attack military airfields in the Saratov district 1/3
> 
> and Ryazan. Old Soviet unmanned aerial vehicles calmly flew about 700 km. over Russian territory, and OPL noticed them only over airfields where strategic bombers designed to carry nuclear weapons were located. 2/3
> 
> RUS OPL successfully shot down all UAVs, but parts of the downed drones falling from the sky damaged strategic bombers and killed 3 soldiers. 3/3



Apparently the Russians shot down some of their drones on top of their aircraft - after the Ukrainians used them inappropriately.

Does the US still want to keep Long Range Missiles out of Ukrainian hands?









						WSJ News Exclusive | U.S. Altered Himars Rocket Launchers to Keep Ukraine From Firing Missiles Into Russia
					

The U.S. secretly modified the advanced Himars rocket launchers it gave Ukraine so they can’t be used to fire long-range missiles into Russia, U.S. officials said, a precaution the Biden administration says is necessary to reduce the risk of a wider war with Moscow.




					www.wsj.com


----------



## Kirkhill

A Swedish tale from Bakhmut via Defmon









						Svensk vid fronten: Avmagrade, fulla ryssar anfaller i Bakhmut
					

Förord: Hårda strider har under flera månader rasat kring staden Bakhmut i Ukraina. Det är ingen stor stad med ukrainska mått mätt – här bodde ca 70000 människor innan kriget bröt ut. Staden …




					militardebatt-com.translate.goog


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> A Swedish tale from Bakhmut via Defmon
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Svensk vid fronten: Avmagrade, fulla ryssar anfaller i Bakhmut
> 
> 
> Förord: Hårda strider har under flera månader rasat kring staden Bakhmut i Ukraina. Det är ingen stor stad med ukrainska mått mätt – här bodde ca 70000 människor innan kriget bröt ut. Staden …
> 
> 
> 
> 
> militardebatt-com.translate.goog



If only the  UA had a few Machine Gun Battalions, like at Passchendaele


----------



## RaceAddict

Mills Bomb said:


> Explosions rock two Russian airbases far from Ukraine frontline
> 
> 
> Russia confirms blasts at military facilities as Kyiv finds way to target long-range bombers
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> If a couple Tu-95's were actually destroyed, that's basically an irreplaceable loss. And it effects nuclear deterrence. Let's cross our fingers they can't be repaired and the damage is extensive enough to make a couple more of them obsolete.
> 
> As far as I know, these are like the B52's in that you can't simply build more of them, or it would be EXTREMELY costly and difficult if possible.



More on the attacks/incidents (including some video, geo-location referencing, etc): 









						Explosion Hits Engels-2 Airbase, Russia, Reportedly Damaging At Least Two Tu-95 Bombers
					

According to the first reports, at least two Russian Tu-95 Bear bombers were damaged in the attack. Engels-2 airbase, located in Saratov Oblast, some 400




					theaviationist.com
				












						Ukraine Modified Soviet-Era Jet Drones To Hit Bomber Bases, Russia Claims
					

The blasts at two bomber bases deep in Russia came only hours before Moscow launched its latest cruise missile barrage against Ukraine.




					www.thedrive.com


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> Does the US still want to keep Long Range Missiles out of Ukrainian hands?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> WSJ News Exclusive | U.S. Altered Himars Rocket Launchers to Keep Ukraine From Firing Missiles Into Russia
> 
> 
> The U.S. secretly modified the advanced Himars rocket launchers it gave Ukraine so they can’t be used to fire long-range missiles into Russia, U.S. officials said, a precaution the Biden administration says is necessary to reduce the risk of a wider war with Moscow.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.wsj.com


Seems highly unlikely, simply due to the nature of the launcher/missile pod that anything was actually altered.


----------



## Skysix

daftandbarmy said:


> If only the  UA had a few Machine Gun Battalions, like at Passchendaele


There us something to be said for a watercooled MG. Curious though, how many rounds until the barrel is shot out? 10k? 100k?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Skysix said:


> There us something to be said for a watercooled MG. Curious though, how many rounds until the barrel is shot out? 10k? 100k?



Vickers - 10 guns, 100 barrels, 1 million rounds....

The weapon had a reputation for great solidity and reliability. Ian V. Hogg, in _Weapons & War Machines_, describes an action that took place in August 1916, during which the British 100th Company of the Machine Gun Corps fired their ten Vickers guns to deliver sustained fire for twelve hours. Using 100 barrels, they fired a million rounds without breakdowns. "It was this absolute foolproof reliability which endeared the Vickers to every British soldier who ever fired one. It never broke down; it just kept on firing and came back for more."[15]









						Vickers machine gun - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599876541848391680
> 
> 
> Apparently the Russians shot down some of their drones on top of their aircraft - after the Ukrainians used them inappropriately.
> 
> Does the US still want to keep Long Range Missiles out of Ukrainian hands?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> WSJ News Exclusive | U.S. Altered Himars Rocket Launchers to Keep Ukraine From Firing Missiles Into Russia
> 
> 
> The U.S. secretly modified the advanced Himars rocket launchers it gave Ukraine so they can’t be used to fire long-range missiles into Russia, U.S. officials said, a precaution the Biden administration says is necessary to reduce the risk of a wider war with Moscow.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.wsj.com


Doubt it. The only thing that could do that would be a software patch limiting the range of the targeting. Too easy to unpatch. More likely they just refused to supply long range rockets aka ATACMS. If the WSJ can get confused between a magazine and a clip, or an assault rifle and a machine gun, or a semiauto AR and a select fire M16 the accuracy of their report is equally suspect


----------



## Skysix

daftandbarmy said:


> Vickers - 10 guns, 100 barrels, 1 million rounds....
> 
> The weapon had a reputation for great solidity and reliability. Ian V. Hogg, in _Weapons & War Machines_, describes an action that took place in August 1916, during which the British 100th Company of the Machine Gun Corps fired their ten Vickers guns to deliver sustained fire for twelve hours. Using 100 barrels, they fired a million rounds without breakdowns. "It was this absolute foolproof reliability which endeared the Vickers to every British soldier who ever fired one. It never broke down; it just kept on firing and came back for more."[15]
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Vickers machine gun - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org


So 10k per barrel. Still very very good. And can use the cooling jacket to heat water for your tea!


----------



## TacticalTea

.


----------



## Eaglelord17

Skysix said:


> There us something to be said for a watercooled MG. Curious though, how many rounds until the barrel is shot out? 10k? 100k?


Can be even longer than that. Apparently when they were being phased out in the 50s in the UK they had the armourers being trained put one up to spec and fire it for a week straight until they ran out of ammo, only changing barrels. Apparently it went through over 5 million rounds and at the end everything was still in spec. Insane sustained fire capabilities. 

It is the same reason the Ukrainians are sometimes using the Maxim on the Eastern Front, it is the same gun as the vickers just not .303.


----------



## NavyShooter

The Maxim actually has the lock reversed compared to the Vickers.  That's why most Maxims have a taller action/body than the Vickers. 

Or something like that...(tucks away my inner gun-geek before I start spouting more off...)


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> Doubt it. The only thing that could do that would be a software patch limiting the range of the targeting. Too easy to unpatch. More likely they just refused to supply long range rockets aka ATACMS. If the WSJ can get confused between a magazine and a clip, or an assault rifle and a machine gun, or a semiauto AR and a select fire M16 the accuracy of their report is equally suspect



Fair comment but...?









						Ukrainian HIMARS Can't Fire Long Range ATACMS Missiles: Report
					

HIMARS launchers sent to Ukraine are reportedly modified so they can't use ATACMS missiles over fears about potential escalation with Russia.




					www.thedrive.com
				




Derated? Governed?


----------



## Spencer100

Kirkhill said:


> Fair comment but...?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian HIMARS Can't Fire Long Range ATACMS Missiles: Report
> 
> 
> HIMARS launchers sent to Ukraine are reportedly modified so they can't use ATACMS missiles over fears about potential escalation with Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedrive.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Derated? Governed?


There is speculation that the US may have a deal with Russia and Putin.  No long range missile given and they stop the talking nuclear crap.  Or some variation of that.  And thoughts Turkey could have a hand in it too.  

I guess we will have to wait for the movie to come out.


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> Fair comment but...?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ukrainian HIMARS Can't Fire Long Range ATACMS Missiles: Report
> 
> 
> HIMARS launchers sent to Ukraine are reportedly modified so they can't use ATACMS missiles over fears about potential escalation with Russia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.thedrive.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Derated? Governed?


Governed might be a good word -- I think @Skysix hit the nail on the head with a software upload.   That software option also allows us to be able to allow the UA to use longer range systems should they be provided.

The article had a IMHO very good comment:
_The U.S. government's reticence to transfer ATACMSs to Ukraine may also have a technical security aspect to it. Newer versions of the ATACMS family remain in active service with American forces, including with forward-deployed units for use in potential flashpoint conflicts, such as any that might erupt on the Korean Peninsula._

  I don't think the Korean Peninsula is the main area of concern though.   Early on when the RuAF invaded, and POMCUS Depots where being cracked open - enough gear was unwrapped for 3 CORPS worth of Armor - there had been a lot of discussion about Abrams etc being given to Ukraine - and when the situation didn't get as dire as concerns had been, the discussion of fully equipping the UA drifted off - so as to ensure that RU, China, etc doesn't get a good read on the cutting edge of US Military gear.


----------



## daftandbarmy

More bad press for the Armoured Corps 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1600168330932867073


----------



## GK .Dundas

So where the was the recce screen and for that matter their infantry screen ?


----------



## KevinB

GK .Dundas said:


> So where the was the recce screen and for that matter their infantry screen ?


It’s an older video - but they seem to do that a bunch…


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> It’s an older video - but they seem to do that a bunch…



5x MBT + 4x IFV + 6x WAPC - A Coy Cbt Tm with 10 small sections (maybe?)

Facing off against a platoon of infantry backed by 2x WAPC and a UAS group.

How big should the Russian screen be?  How far in advance fo the "main body" should it be?  How much of an infantry reserve should be retained?  Does the screen need to be a 360 screen?

My sense is that the advantages are all with the Ukrainian infantry with much greater situational awareness due to the UAS availability and the number and size of the observed targets.  Tanks are easier to find than troops.


----------



## daftandbarmy

GK .Dundas said:


> So where the was the recce screen and for that matter their infantry screen ?



The UAVs seem to be their screen, on screen....


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> 5x MBT + 4x IFV + 6x WAPC - A Coy Cbt Tm with 10 small sections (maybe?)


Probably the remnants of a BTG...



Kirkhill said:


> Facing off against a platoon of infantry backed by 2x WAPC and a UAS group.
> 
> How big should the Russian screen be?  How far in advance fo the "main body" should it be?  How much of an infantry reserve should be retained?  Does the screen need to be a 360 screen?


   Don't trundle down a road in a column with limited visibility would be rule #1
      If you are going to violate rule #1, then at least screen danger areas - the ambush point has a natural cover break - where the lead tank had pivoted too just prior to being engaged.
    The tank should have halted at least 50m behind the gap - and had dismounts clear it.

Honestly the Russians drove like it was an admin move from Edmonton to Wx...



Kirkhill said:


> My sense is that the advantages are all with the Ukrainian infantry with much greater situational awareness due to the UAS availability and the number and size of the observed targets.  Tanks are easier to find than troops.


----------



## Kirkhill

Dragons Teeth concrete seems as good as the stuff the Soviets made apartment blocks out of.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1600151315371347968


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> The UAVs seem to be their screen, on screen....
> 
> View attachment 75343



What would Wellington have given to see over the other side of the hill?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Kirkhill said:


> What would Wellington have given to see over the other side of the hill?



The future is now, old man....


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> Dragons Teeth concrete seems as good as the stuff the Soviets made apartment blocks out of.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1600151315371347968


Looks like Chinese quality concrete


----------



## dimsum

MilEME09 said:


> Looks like Chinese quality concrete


What's the stuff in black?


----------



## McG

Look like someone made tets with cement board and then painted the outside in concrete .,. Even CMTC’s training tets are better built (and actually solid).


----------



## GK .Dundas

Ahh! The Potemkin line .


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> Looks like Chinese quality concrete


More of the backstory…

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1600158045979361280


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> Dragons Teeth concrete seems as good as the stuff the Soviets made apartment blocks out of.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1600151315371347968


Are those really HOLLOW? With thin skins at that!

(Plywood forms are essentially as good as air in stopping tanks...)

Perhaps the point if the line was not to actually work but to establish a land claim in international eyes.

But they actually have to hold the land first. And hope nobody ever runs them over with anything bigger than a Lada.


----------



## CBH99

Good2Golf said:


> More of the backstory…
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1600158045979361280


Looks like someone might go into cardiac failure soon…

(Cardiac failure may or may not be caused by multiple bullets to said heart)


----------



## Weinie

CBH99 said:


> Looks like someone might go into cardiac failure soon…
> 
> (Cardiac failure may or may not be caused by multiple bullets to said heart)


Or fall out of a window.


----------



## Good2Golf

CBH99 said:


> Looks like someone might go into cardiac failure soon…
> 
> (Cardiac failure may or may not be caused by multiple bullets to said heart)


Cardiac arrest can sometimes be caused by slipping on bullets in the shower…


----------



## CBH99

Weinie said:


> Or fall out of a window.


I thought about that.  I’m not sure it would do all that much… 😉


----------



## CBH99

Good2Golf said:


> Cardiac arrest can sometimes be caused by slipping on bullets in the shower…
> View attachment 75369


That f**king gif 🤣🤣


----------



## Good2Golf

CBH99 said:


> That f**king gif 🤣🤣


If only I had had that wisdom in elementary school… 😆


----------



## Kirkhill

Fight Like Nato: Ukrainian Infantrymen Reveal What They Need to Defeat Russia - Kyiv Post - Ukraine's Global Voice
					

Ukraine’s foot soldiers say they’ll fight Russian invaders in any case, but they would do it more effectively… - Nov. 28, 2022. By Stefan Korshak




					www.kyivpost.com
				




*Fight Like Nato: Ukrainian Infantrymen Reveal What They Need to Defeat Russia*​By *Stefan Korshak*.
 Published Nov. 28 at 2:09 pm





Nov. 27. Image of an AK-74 rifle, the standard issue weapon of Ukrainian infantryman, in a forward position of the 95th Air Assault Brigade. The owner has upgraded the weapon with aftermarket stock, grip and flash suppressor. With very few exceptions, a soldier or donations to a soldier’s unit pay for such add-ons, as under normal circumstances the Ukrainian army only issues the bare weapon. Photo by 95th Air Assault Brigade.

*Ukraine’s foot soldiers say they’ll fight Russian invaders in any case, but they would do it more effectively and fewer of them would die if they were equipped with modern combat optics, had more time to train to NATO standards, and were led by a professional corps of small unit combat leaders.

The Ukrainian army’s infantry has demonstrated that it can defend ground fiercely, but units might  struggle when asked to perform more complicated missions like night reconnaissance, clearing a hostile village, or operating in cooperation with tanks or artillery,* nine Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) veterans ranked corporal to company commander told Kyiv Post in a series of November interviews.

*Volodymyr Kadiev, 54, never planned to join the infantry. Before the war he ran a successful construction business in Hostomel, north of Kyiv. As a raw volunteer in a territorial defense battalion deployed in the path of the Kremlin’s assault on the capital, he found himself handed an AK-74 he had never fired and in charge of a defensive strongpoint overlooking a road intersection.*

*Kadiev and his mates had never trained together, had no communications gear save commercial mobile phones and had never been to a firing range. They learned how to operate a checkpoint from the internet. Relatives and neighbors brought them food. Their only optics was a pair of hunting binoculars.*

Once the Russians retreated, in April, Kadiev set out to help his unit shoot straighter and see better in the dark. *In a European country it would have been easy: the state would just buy rifle sights and night vision devices and hand them out. (Edit: The simple faith of the naive here)*

In wartime Ukraine, Kadiev said, it’s been more complicated. He had to contact a friend in the U.S., who knew someone in the military equipment trade, who found a Houston distributor called Primary Arms, then volunteers collected donations, money was transferred, and then Primary Arms received an order for several dozen units, and three months later a minority of Kadiev’s 300-man battalion unit had made in the U.S. gunsights on their rifles.

Soldiers at a firing range in Kyiv Region told Kyiv Post the *American optics, with four-times magnification and a red dot target pip, are easy to use and ideal for split-second engagements.* But until volunteers shake down friends and relatives for enough donations money to buy more, the battalion won’t get any more modern gunsights, Kadiev said.





A Ukrainian territorial defense battalion fighter takes aim during training in November in Kyiv Region. He is *equipped with a Soviet-era AK-74 automatic rifle marched with a modern tactical gunsight made in the U.S. *and purchased and delivered to his unit by volunteers. Soldiers using the gunsight praised its accuracy, but said the AK was not designed to be used with modern gunsights. NOTE: The soldier in this image requested he be photographed with a U.S.-Ukraine patch during a press visit to his unit, as the insignia is not normally worn. Photo by Volodymyr Kadiev.

“This is one item for one part of a single battalion. Ukraine has hundreds of thousands of soldiers fighting in the war,” he said. “Obviously, *you can’t equip all those soldiers with volunteers and donations.”*

Volodymyr Lysovsky, 31, ran a Harley-Davidson repair shop in the Kyiv bedroom community town of Bucha.  He said he volunteered for local defense forces on the first day of the war, then transferred to a territorial defense battalion and later, promoted to sergeant, went east to fight with a special operations infantry outfit as a sniper. He fought mostly in urban battles in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

*“When our infantry fights, it’s close in, 50-100 meters. Ninety-nine percent of the fighting is in villages. It’s all split second. Firefights come down to who reacts faster and more correctly,” Lysovsky said. ” You need the right tools, you need practice, and you need experience.”*





An Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) foreign fighter takes a break at a Kharkiv training range in November. An infantryman, he is armed with a NATO-caliber assault rifle and privately-purchased gunsights. Some AFU soldiers prefer NATO-standard rifles because, they say, ammunition for them is more reliable and accurate than the sometimes Soviet-era ammunition that most of the AFU uses. Photo provided by Stefan Korshak.

*Ukraine’s infantrymen would benefit greatly were they able replace the widespread AK-74 rifle of Soviet vintage with the American M4 carbine or German G36 assault rifle, because those weapons use high-quality NATO cartridges,* while the AFU is supplied with sometimes iffy AK-74 rifle ammunition sourced from around the world, Lysovsky said.

*“Captured Russian cartidges are very reliable, but some of the stuff from the Balkans and China, you can’t always depend on it,*” he said.
Serhiy Hrach*,  a regular army captain deployed in Kharkiv Region, in a November interview at a firing range told Kyiv Post that only a small percentage of Ukraine’s infantrymen probably meet NATO individual performance standards. *Basic individual soldier field skills like marksmanship, ability to treat a bullet or shell splinter wound, or simply reporting accurately about something spotted on the battlefield are common shortfalls*, he said.

“That sort of thing is systematically trained…and standardized in NATO units,” Hrach said. “But in our AFU that often depends on what a soldier happens to know and what personally feels like learning. *Things are changing slowly but in our army right now training is bottom-up.”*




*A Canadian trainer explains use of an anti-tank mine to Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) soldiers during training in Great Britain. Multiple AFU combat leaders told Kyiv Post that Ukrainian soldiers passing through the Britian-led training process, called Operation Interflex, arrive at fighting units with excellent infantry skills and a mindset of initiative and personal responsibility common in NATO, in contrast to Soviet-era military traditions still present in some parts of the Ukrainian military.

“The Ukrainian army’s skills in combined arms maneuver are improving* as they gain experience and as larger numbers of trained soldiers reach the front,” said Stephen Biddle, Professor of International and Public Affairs at School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University. “(I)t would appear that their military proficiency has been growing over time.”

Hrach and others interviewed for this story singled out *the AFU’s shortage of proper small unit leaders, specifically professional sergeants, as possibly the most critical gap in upping AFU soldier and combat unit capacity.

“In the AFU, soldiers follow not the rank but the most experienced guy.* In NATO that leader is a sergeant, but we are at war and *there’s no way our army can train enough sergeants properly*. So we make do as best we can,” he said.

Sergeant Maksym Myronishchenko* serves in an air assault brigade currently deployed in Bakhmut sector, currently the scene of the most intense fighting along the entire 2,000 kilometer contact line. Myronishchenko in a telephone interview told Kyiv Post that *an experienced sergeant is usually  the difference between survival and becoming an early casualty for new soldiers. He said time in combat and rising gradually in the ranks is the best route to becoming an effective sergeant.* Myronishchenko said he joined the AFU as a volunteer in 2014 shortly after Russia’s invasion of Donbas, became a professional soldier in 2016, and pinned on his sergeant’s stripes in 2019.

“But guys like me are few and far between, not everyone stays in the service, and not everyone survives”, he said. “Now we have a giant war, our army is going to the attack, our soldiers are going to have to learn on the job, *we don’t have enough proper sergeants, and in war you pay for mistakes in blood.”*

Myronishchenko and other AFU small unit leaders told Kyiv Post, without exception, that in their view as infantry soldiers,* by far the most effective foreign assistance they have seen, more even than Western weapons, has been the basic military training for new Ukrainian recruits conducted by NATO instructors. Particularly-praised were training courses led primarily by British instructors in England. New Ukrainian troops are now arriving at combat units, he said, not just well-trained in weapons and basic infantry skills – but even more important, “they think like NATO soldiers,” he said.*

*Interview subject requested a pseudonym be used for security reasons. He identified himself to a Kyiv Post reporter.


----------



## GR66

Kirkhill said:


> *“When our infantry fights, it’s close in, 50-100 meters. Ninety-nine percent of the fighting is in villages. *


A number of interesting comments in the article but the one above makes me wonder if the Canadian Army is focusing on the right type of training.


----------



## Loch Sloy!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/sask-dundurn-crv-7-rocket-1.6104294
		


These could probably be put to better use in Ukraine than paying to destroy them…


----------



## Kirkhill

Textrpn M1117 Armored Security Vehicles - aka TAPV mods - headed for Ukraine.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/zf5juh


----------



## brihard

Kirkhill said:


> Fight Like Nato: Ukrainian Infantrymen Reveal What They Need to Defeat Russia - Kyiv Post - Ukraine's Global Voice
> 
> 
> Ukraine’s foot soldiers say they’ll fight Russian invaders in any case, but they would do it more effectively… - Nov. 28, 2022. By Stefan Korshak
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.kyivpost.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Fight Like Nato: Ukrainian Infantrymen Reveal What They Need to Defeat Russia*​By *Stefan Korshak*.
> Published Nov. 28 at 2:09 pm
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Nov. 27. Image of an AK-74 rifle, the standard issue weapon of Ukrainian infantryman, in a forward position of the 95th Air Assault Brigade. The owner has upgraded the weapon with aftermarket stock, grip and flash suppressor. With very few exceptions, a soldier or donations to a soldier’s unit pay for such add-ons, as under normal circumstances the Ukrainian army only issues the bare weapon. Photo by 95th Air Assault Brigade.
> 
> *Ukraine’s foot soldiers say they’ll fight Russian invaders in any case, but they would do it more effectively and fewer of them would die if they were equipped with modern combat optics, had more time to train to NATO standards, and were led by a professional corps of small unit combat leaders.
> 
> The Ukrainian army’s infantry has demonstrated that it can defend ground fiercely, but units might  struggle when asked to perform more complicated missions like night reconnaissance, clearing a hostile village, or operating in cooperation with tanks or artillery,* nine Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) veterans ranked corporal to company commander told Kyiv Post in a series of November interviews.
> 
> *Volodymyr Kadiev, 54, never planned to join the infantry. Before the war he ran a successful construction business in Hostomel, north of Kyiv. As a raw volunteer in a territorial defense battalion deployed in the path of the Kremlin’s assault on the capital, he found himself handed an AK-74 he had never fired and in charge of a defensive strongpoint overlooking a road intersection.
> 
> Kadiev and his mates had never trained together, had no communications gear save commercial mobile phones and had never been to a firing range. They learned how to operate a checkpoint from the internet. Relatives and neighbors brought them food. Their only optics was a pair of hunting binoculars.*
> 
> Once the Russians retreated, in April, Kadiev set out to help his unit shoot straighter and see better in the dark. *In a European country it would have been easy: the state would just buy rifle sights and night vision devices and hand them out. (Edit: The simple faith of the naive here)*
> 
> In wartime Ukraine, Kadiev said, it’s been more complicated. He had to contact a friend in the U.S., who knew someone in the military equipment trade, who found a Houston distributor called Primary Arms, then volunteers collected donations, money was transferred, and then Primary Arms received an order for several dozen units, and three months later a minority of Kadiev’s 300-man battalion unit had made in the U.S. gunsights on their rifles.
> 
> Soldiers at a firing range in Kyiv Region told Kyiv Post the *American optics, with four-times magnification and a red dot target pip, are easy to use and ideal for split-second engagements.* But until volunteers shake down friends and relatives for enough donations money to buy more, the battalion won’t get any more modern gunsights, Kadiev said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A Ukrainian territorial defense battalion fighter takes aim during training in November in Kyiv Region. He is *equipped with a Soviet-era AK-74 automatic rifle marched with a modern tactical gunsight made in the U.S. *and purchased and delivered to his unit by volunteers. Soldiers using the gunsight praised its accuracy, but said the AK was not designed to be used with modern gunsights. NOTE: The soldier in this image requested he be photographed with a U.S.-Ukraine patch during a press visit to his unit, as the insignia is not normally worn. Photo by Volodymyr Kadiev.
> 
> “This is one item for one part of a single battalion. Ukraine has hundreds of thousands of soldiers fighting in the war,” he said. “Obviously, *you can’t equip all those soldiers with volunteers and donations.”*
> 
> Volodymyr Lysovsky, 31, ran a Harley-Davidson repair shop in the Kyiv bedroom community town of Bucha.  He said he volunteered for local defense forces on the first day of the war, then transferred to a territorial defense battalion and later, promoted to sergeant, went east to fight with a special operations infantry outfit as a sniper. He fought mostly in urban battles in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.
> 
> *“When our infantry fights, it’s close in, 50-100 meters. Ninety-nine percent of the fighting is in villages. It’s all split second. Firefights come down to who reacts faster and more correctly,” Lysovsky said. ” You need the right tools, you need practice, and you need experience.”*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> An Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) foreign fighter takes a break at a Kharkiv training range in November. An infantryman, he is armed with a NATO-caliber assault rifle and privately-purchased gunsights. Some AFU soldiers prefer NATO-standard rifles because, they say, ammunition for them is more reliable and accurate than the sometimes Soviet-era ammunition that most of the AFU uses. Photo provided by Stefan Korshak.
> 
> *Ukraine’s infantrymen would benefit greatly were they able replace the widespread AK-74 rifle of Soviet vintage with the American M4 carbine or German G36 assault rifle, because those weapons use high-quality NATO cartridges,* while the AFU is supplied with sometimes iffy AK-74 rifle ammunition sourced from around the world, Lysovsky said.
> 
> *“Captured Russian cartidges are very reliable, but some of the stuff from the Balkans and China, you can’t always depend on it,*” he said.
> Serhiy Hrach*,  a regular army captain deployed in Kharkiv Region, in a November interview at a firing range told Kyiv Post that only a small percentage of Ukraine’s infantrymen probably meet NATO individual performance standards. *Basic individual soldier field skills like marksmanship, ability to treat a bullet or shell splinter wound, or simply reporting accurately about something spotted on the battlefield are common shortfalls*, he said.
> 
> “That sort of thing is systematically trained…and standardized in NATO units,” Hrach said. “But in our AFU that often depends on what a soldier happens to know and what personally feels like learning. *Things are changing slowly but in our army right now training is bottom-up.”*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *A Canadian trainer explains use of an anti-tank mine to Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) soldiers during training in Great Britain. Multiple AFU combat leaders told Kyiv Post that Ukrainian soldiers passing through the Britian-led training process, called Operation Interflex, arrive at fighting units with excellent infantry skills and a mindset of initiative and personal responsibility common in NATO, in contrast to Soviet-era military traditions still present in some parts of the Ukrainian military.
> 
> “The Ukrainian army’s skills in combined arms maneuver are improving* as they gain experience and as larger numbers of trained soldiers reach the front,” said Stephen Biddle, Professor of International and Public Affairs at School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University. “(I)t would appear that their military proficiency has been growing over time.”
> 
> Hrach and others interviewed for this story singled out *the AFU’s shortage of proper small unit leaders, specifically professional sergeants, as possibly the most critical gap in upping AFU soldier and combat unit capacity.
> 
> “In the AFU, soldiers follow not the rank but the most experienced guy.* In NATO that leader is a sergeant, but we are at war and *there’s no way our army can train enough sergeants properly*. So we make do as best we can,” he said.
> 
> Sergeant Maksym Myronishchenko* serves in an air assault brigade currently deployed in Bakhmut sector, currently the scene of the most intense fighting along the entire 2,000 kilometer contact line. Myronishchenko in a telephone interview told Kyiv Post that *an experienced sergeant is usually  the difference between survival and becoming an early casualty for new soldiers. He said time in combat and rising gradually in the ranks is the best route to becoming an effective sergeant.* Myronishchenko said he joined the AFU as a volunteer in 2014 shortly after Russia’s invasion of Donbas, became a professional soldier in 2016, and pinned on his sergeant’s stripes in 2019.
> 
> “But guys like me are few and far between, not everyone stays in the service, and not everyone survives”, he said. “Now we have a giant war, our army is going to the attack, our soldiers are going to have to learn on the job, *we don’t have enough proper sergeants, and in war you pay for mistakes in blood.”*
> 
> Myronishchenko and other AFU small unit leaders told Kyiv Post, without exception, that in their view as infantry soldiers,* by far the most effective foreign assistance they have seen, more even than Western weapons, has been the basic military training for new Ukrainian recruits conducted by NATO instructors. Particularly-praised were training courses led primarily by British instructors in England. New Ukrainian troops are now arriving at combat units, he said, not just well-trained in weapons and basic infantry skills – but even more important, “they think like NATO soldiers,” he said.*
> 
> *Interview subject requested a pseudonym be used for security reasons. He identified himself to a Kyiv Post reporter.


Fantastic article, thanks.

I imagine NATO and Ukraine both are focusing on getting those recruits through training, but I wonder if more capacity could be carved out for train-the-trainer infantry NCO training to enable cadres of battle-experienced Ukrainian NCOs to go back and deliver a tailored and abbreviated section commander course, perhaps when units rotate to the rear, or with individuals selected and cycled back?

That’s fantastic to hear that the training in Britain is sending reasonably effective recruits to the front. Maybe we should try to capture some of the lessons learned and test them against our own basic infantry training in its current form.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

brihard said:


> Fantastic article, thanks.
> 
> I imagine NATO and Ukraine both are focusing on getting those recruits through training, but I wonder if more capacity could be carved out for train-the-trainer infantry NCO training to enable cadres of battle-experienced Ukrainian NCOs to go back and deliver a tailored and abbreviated section commander course, perhaps when units rotate to the rear, or with individuals selected and cycled back?
> 
> That’s fantastic to hear that the training in Britain is sending reasonably effective recruits to the front. Maybe we should try to capture some of the lessons learned and test them against our own basic infantry training in its current form.



I think part of the issue is that the folks they need to develop their NCO corps are all out there doing the business; some of them dying before they are able to take the bound up from private  soldier to NCO. 

I think having folks come into the front with the skills they need to stay alive means less "learning in blood" for those sections. That recruit becomes a team leader, then a section leader, then... profit. 

I honestly doubt our NCO/Warrant Officer corps would be as robust, we're it not for the pretty peaceful environment they're allowed to develop in. Attrition takes its told on professionalizing your force...


----------



## Kirkhill

rmc_wannabe said:


> I think part of the issue is that the folks they need to develop their NCO corps are all out there doing the business; some of them dying before they are able to take the bound up from private  soldier to NCO.
> 
> I think having folks come into the front with the skills they need to stay alive means less "learning in blood" for those sections. That recruit becomes a team leader, then a section leader, then... profit.
> 
> I honestly doubt our NCO/Warrant Officer corps would be as robust, we're it not for the pretty peaceful environment they're allowed to develop in. Attrition takes its told on professionalizing your force...



If the Ukrainians can be supplied with survivable, useful, General Purpose riflemen in 5 weeks could we spend an additional 5 weeks developing crew served weapons specialists and junior leaders?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Kirkhill said:


> If the Ukrainians can be supplied with survivable, useful, General Purpose riflemen in 5 weeks could we spend an additional 5 weeks developing crew served weapons specialists and junior leaders?



I mean... probably. 

Doesn't leave much time for GBA plus, MJUL, or CODE though... there has to be a better way 🤔


----------



## Good2Golf

rmc_wannabe said:


> I mean... probably.
> 
> Doesn't leave much time for GBA plus, MJUL, or CODE though... there has to be a better way 🤔


Don’t forget Green Procurement, etc.


----------



## MilEME09

rmc_wannabe said:


> I mean... probably.
> 
> Doesn't leave much time for GBA plus, MJUL, or CODE though... there has to be a better way 🤔


Have then do it on their own time from home


----------



## Kirkhill

Here is a child, reputedly in Bakhmut, being given presents.

I wasn't surprised to hear artillery.   I was astounded to hear machine gun fire.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/zfiv49


----------



## Kirkhill

What "bite and hold" looks like on the ground.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/zfu7cz


----------



## daftandbarmy

GR66 said:


> A number of interesting comments in the article but the one above makes me wonder if the Canadian Army is focusing on the right type of training.



IMHO we don't tend to focus on anything that is resource intensive, like urban combat, because it's way over in the 'too expensive/hard to find training areas for' column.

And that speaks to a leadership issue at the highest levels, of course.


----------



## Kirkhill

Julia Davis translations from Russian media

A fearful people - driven by fear and can only understand fear - the ultimate fear of the Putinistas is being done by as they do.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1599153829643137024

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1600128126129881088


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> IMHO we don't tend to focus on anything that is resource intensive, like urban combat, because it's way over in the 'too expensive/hard to find training areas for' column.
> 
> And that speaks to a leadership issue at the highest levels, of course.



And yet, have we no docks, warehouses, ports, airports, vacant lots, abandoned factories....?

Whole towns?









						Lists of ghost towns in Canada - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> And yet, have we no docks, warehouses, ports, airports, vacant lots, abandoned factories....?
> 
> Whole towns?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Lists of ghost towns in Canada - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org



It's not an issue of training area possibilities. It's an issue of leadership vision and commitment - or lack thereof.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

daftandbarmy said:


> It's not an issue of training area possibilities. It's an issue of leadership vision and commitment - or lack thereof.



Not to mention... you know... clear direction and guidance at the National/Strategic level on what the GoC actually wants us to be capable of doing.

At the moment, the answer seems to be "everything and nothing,  and for less money."


----------



## KevinB

rmc_wannabe said:


> Not to mention... you know... clear direction and guidance at the National/Strategic level on what the GoC actually wants us to be capable of doing.
> 
> At the moment, the answer seems to be "everything and nothing,  and for less money."


I think that falls into @daftandbarmy thoughts though.


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> I think that falls into @daftandbarmy thoughts though.



Yeah, pretty much.

The state of readiness at the front-line can pretty much be traced right back up to leadership decisions made at the corporate office and boardroom... or Parliament Hill


----------



## Spencer100

Interesting this is the second piece I have read today on leaders running to Venezuela.  First one was about Iranian leaders Plan B. to Venezuela (I post it on the Iran thread) and now Russia too.





__





						Vladimir Putin: Fresh claims the Russian President is preparing to flee to South America
					





					www.msn.com
				




Sometimes I think these stories are made up to help along the other side. 

 Trudeau make his plan too?


----------



## Rifleman62

> Sometimes I think these stories are made up........



Another one making the rounds: Elon Musk is going to purchase Canada.


----------



## Skysix

Loch Sloy! said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/sask-dundurn-crv-7-rocket-1.6104294
> 
> 
> 
> These could probably be put to better use in Ukraine than paying to destroy them…


Someone from the Ukrainian-Canadian diaspora should figure out the cost to ship them to Lviv "for disposal" and then use that as their bid.

Or you know, maybe Freeland could just send them over via C17..... Save the taxpayer the cost of disposal in Canada


----------



## daftandbarmy

Skysix said:


> Someone from the Ukrainian-Canadian diaspora should figure out the cost to ship them to Lviv "for disposal" and then use that as their bid.
> 
> Or you know, maybe Freeland could just send them over via C17..... Save the taxpayer the cost of disposal in Canada



We could load them on all of our TAPVs and just park them on their side of the Polish border... two problems solved at once


----------



## MilEME09

Light hearted but funny


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1600849779365359616


----------



## WLSC

Kirkhill said:


> And yet, have we no docks, warehouses, ports, airports, vacant lots, abandoned factories....?
> 
> Whole towns?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Lists of ghost towns in Canada - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org



Wait a minute!  That’s dangerous you know!  There could old nails and broken window in those area 🤦‍♂️!  Stop having good idea and being proactive 😉🤷🏼‍♂️


----------



## Skysix

Some Canadian Aid on display in Bucha. TDF Capt Starsky was part of the Hostomel defense last Feb.


----------



## FJAG

Attached is an article from the German Stern magazine about Russia sending 200 new T-90s to the front.

It's in German but you can hit translate for a pretty good English version.



> Putins Reserven – Kreml schickt 200 neue Kampfpanzer des Typs T-90M in die Ukraine
> 
> 
> Angeblich stellt der Kreml der selbsternannten "Volksrepublik Luhansk" 200 Panzer zur Verfügung. Der T-90 M ist der modernste und gefährlichste Panzer auf den Schlachtfeldern der Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.stern.de



🍻


----------



## Kirkhill

Buddy in Donetsk talking to mummy, complaining about wet and the high price of vodka and cigarettes.  He also is expected to buy food but that is expensive and cuts into his vodka budget.

More interesting.

His company is reduced to a strength of 30.  The next location is 2 to 3 km away.  Vodka is bought through intermediaries that have access to towns.

Still a low density battlefield.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1600555212460019712


----------



## Skysix

NS Highlander?


----------



## Kirkhill

Assumption 1 - Bakhmut Hospital is the Primary Casualty Receiving Station for the Bakhmut Front



> There are days when wounded soldiers arrive every half hour.



Assumpition 2 - There are days when wounded soldiers DO NOT arrive every half hour

Assumption 3 - Peak loading is one soldier arrives every half hour

Assumption 4 - 24 hour operation at peak pace = 48 soldiers per day wounded during peak operations

Assumption 5 - 3 wounded per 1 killed = 16 soldiers killed per day holding Bakhmut during peak operations.

Assumption 6 - Bakhmut front from Yahidne to Opytne is 10 to 20 km long

Assumption 7 - Russian force, from previous radio intercept is a "platoon" sized company every 2 kilometer - 5 to 10 "platoons" engaging Bahmut - The remnants of 5 to 10 BTGs? - Russians dying at an attacker to defender rate of 3 to 1 - Russians dying at a rate of 48 per day and being wounded at a rate of 150 per day - 200 Russians "hors de combat" every day versus 64 Ukrainians?

Observation - the images of the war may look like the WW1 Western Front or the WW2 Eastern Front but they don't rise to the same scale.  This war is eating through technology faster than it is eating through soldiers.





__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1601102845205712896


----------



## Kirkhill

Brandon Mitchell's day job.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> Assumption 7 - Russian force, from previous radio intercept is a "platoon" sized company every 2 kilometer - 5 to 10 "platoons" engaging Bahmut - The remnants of 5 to 10 BTGs? - *Russians dying at an attacker to defender rate of 3 to 1 - Russians dying at a rate of 48 per day and being wounded at a rate of 150 per day - 200 Russians "hors de combat" every day versus 64 Ukrainians?*
> 
> Observation - the images of the war may look like the WW1 Western Front or the WW2 Eastern Front but they don't rise to the same scale.  This war is eating through technology faster than it is eating through soldiers.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1601102845205712896


Those numbers fall roughly in line with the population differences between the Ukraine and Russia - 44 million vs 144 million.

If that ratio is similar across the entire front lines then in reality the Ukrainians are not proportionally killing/wounding more Russians than necessary to offset their own losses when compared against population differences.  If this is correct its not necessarily a good thing.  The saving grace may well come down to better training and equipment.  Need to continue training Ukkies in the UK and to keep them better equipped in order to maintain or improve the current ratio.


----------



## KevinB

One aspect to consider Russian casualty rates are skewed higher towards death than wounded — due to lack of combat medical treatment and overall Russian apathy towards wounded. 
  A lot of what would be for most militaries survivable injuries turn to death in the Russian system.  

Both are bleeding at horrifying rates, the Ukrainians however are able to provide some stability after injury, and many of the wounded return to duty.


----------



## NavyShooter

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1601199990419750914


----------



## Good2Golf

They're on their PR game, that's for sure!


----------



## KevinB

Good2Golf said:


> They're on their PR game, that's for sure!


Or Canada hacked their Twitter account. 
   I’m 50/50


----------



## Retired AF Guy

More things blowing up in Russia. This time a shopping mall outside of Moscow. To early to say if  someone dropped a cigarette/criminal related/Ukrainian forces/dissident Russians or crappy safety protocols, but when the mall blows up it does kind of look suspicious.


----------



## Skysix

Retired AF Guy said:


> More things blowing up in Russia. This time a shopping mall outside of Moscow. To early to say if  someone dropped a cigarette/criminal related/Ukrainian forces/dissident Russians or crappy safety protocols, but when the mall blows up it does kind of look suspicious.


Accidental. 

Smokers who "dropped" a lit cigarette onto an open book of matches that just happened to be on the floor right next to the paint thinner display with the spill..... one of the easiest delayed ignition arson methods out there.


----------



## MilEME09

Retired AF Guy said:


> More things blowing up in Russia. This time a shopping mall outside of Moscow. To early to say if  someone dropped a cigarette/criminal related/Ukrainian forces/dissident Russians or crappy safety protocols, but when the mall blows up it does kind of look suspicious.


Regarding the shopping mall, there is a rumor going around that it was deliberate arson. Apparently it had been shut Down for months because of western sanctions, so the owner wanted it gone to claim the insurance money.


I'd believe it


----------



## Furniture

NavyShooter said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1601199990419750914


Long underwear isn't as sexy as HIMARS, but it does help keep Ukrainian troops from freezing in their trenches.


----------



## CBH99

MilEME09 said:


> Regarding the shopping mall, there is a rumor going around that it was deliberate arson. Apparently it had been shut Down for months because of western sanctions, so the owner wanted it gone to claim the insurance money.
> 
> 
> I'd believe it


This actually sounds entirely plausible, and most likely what happened.  

I doubt Ukraine would waste munitions taking out an abandoned shopping mall for all the obvious reasons.


----------



## CBH99

Skysix said:


> Accidental.
> 
> Smokers who "dropped" a lit cigarette onto an open book of matches that just happened to be on the floor right next to the paint thinner display with the spill..... one of the easiest delayed ignition arson methods out there.


I’m not a smoker, but if I was, I feel like I’d like to try these Russian cigarettes!

Crazy shit happens everytime someone drops one!  It’s like a gum commercial every time


----------



## CBH99

FJAG said:


> Attached is an article from the German Stern magazine about Russia sending 200 new T-90s to the front.
> 
> It's in German but you can hit translate for a pretty good English version.
> 
> 
> 
> 🍻


_IF_ true, that’s some serious firepower reinforcing Russian forces in that region.  I doubt that number is true, though.

Why would Russia hold off on fielding an additional 200 tanks, T-90M’s at that, when most of its professional troops were being wiped out/whittled away during various operations?  

Why would they want conscripts who don’t even want to be there to be the ones using their latest & greatest?  

Wouldn’t that tech have been more effective in Russia achieving its goals if provided to Russian regular forces?  

How did they get built?  It’s either they found a way around western sanctions (not likely with the focus being on all things ‘them’ these days) ooorrrr cheap Chinese parts in lieu of their own produced parts.  

(Since Chinese kit is mostly stolen/copied Russian kit)


It just doesn’t make sense to me.  But there’s all kinds of things the Russians have done in this conflict that don’t make sense to me, so who knows 😕🤷🏼‍♂️


----------



## CBH99

KevinB said:


> One aspect to consider Russian casualty rates are skewed higher towards death than wounded — due to lack of combat medical treatment and overall Russian apathy towards wounded.
> A lot of what would be for most militaries survivable injuries turn to death in the Russian system.
> 
> Both are bleeding at horrifying rates, the Ukrainians however are able to provide some stability after injury, and many of the wounded return to duty.


I could see a solid TCCC course, taught by an experienced instructor, as being a vitally important course for UA troops - especially with respect to population numbers 

(We had a retired CANSOF medic show us some stuff during a workshop once, back when I worked EMS.  Holy crap, that guy had even our most experienced medics sitting on the edge of their seats with amazed looks on their faces - the guy was half wizard, I swear…)


----------



## McG

Good2Golf said:


> They're on their PR game, that's for sure!


And they show the LAV family vehicle they want vice the one we sent.


----------



## McG

CBH99 said:


> _IF_ true, that’s some serious firepower reinforcing Russian forces in that region. I doubt that number is true, though.


I’ve seen some reports that T-90 has been underrepresented in the open source verified Russian vehicle casualties. It would not be inconceivable (especially given how easygoing they apparently believed the war would be when they started it in Feb) for Russia to have held a counter-NATO reserve with all its best kit.

But NATO is not coming across the boarders, while NATO equipment is doing some significant damage to the Russian invasion armies. So it would also not be inconceivable that Russia has now decided to send the kit designed to fight modern NATO equipment to the place where they are fighting modern NATO equipment.


----------



## RangerRay

MilEME09 said:


> Regarding the shopping mall, there is a rumor going around that it was deliberate arson. Apparently it had been shut Down for months because of western sanctions, so the owner wanted it gone to claim the insurance money.
> 
> 
> I'd believe it


Financial combustion?


----------



## Rifleman62




----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1601583348715253760


----------



## Kirkhill

No justice.  No peace.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/zhqkx7


----------



## Kirkhill

A 25 minute report from a Casualty Clearing Station in the Bakhmut region - Desultory shell fire a long way from the CCS. Two houses over.


----------



## Kirkhill

Kropiva Battle Management 








__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/zhyr5o


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575972921612193792








						Precision artillery guidance using cheap tablets – how Ukrainian high-tech for effective projectile targeting works - Technology Org
					

Several days ago, the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced an artillery long-strike record achieved with an old soviet-era tank T-64. The target was destroyed




					www.technology.org
				












						How Ukraine turns cheap tablets into lethal weapons
					

Army SOS, an activist-led NGO, converts Android-based tablets into smart units with automated precision guidance.




					www.aljazeera.com
				




They do things differently.


----------



## Good2Golf

Looks like a home-grown version of the ATAK Android tablet-based situational awareness/coordination system.


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> Kropiva Battle Management
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/zhyr5o
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575972921612193792
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Precision artillery guidance using cheap tablets – how Ukrainian high-tech for effective projectile targeting works - Technology Org
> 
> 
> Several days ago, the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced an artillery long-strike record achieved with an old soviet-era tank T-64. The target was destroyed
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.technology.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How Ukraine turns cheap tablets into lethal weapons
> 
> 
> Army SOS, an activist-led NGO, converts Android-based tablets into smart units with automated precision guidance.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.aljazeera.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> They do things differently.


Opsec failure that they didn't blur the FPS coordinates


----------



## Good2Golf

Actually, they did one better and faked in the coords of a field about 15km East of Russia’s Omsk Refinery…for the time being, one of Russia’s most modern operating refineries.

UAF Tu-141 drone be all: “I’d hit that!”


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Kirkhill said:


> Kropiva Battle Management
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/zhyr5o
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575972921612193792
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Precision artillery guidance using cheap tablets – how Ukrainian high-tech for effective projectile targeting works - Technology Org
> 
> 
> Several days ago, the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced an artillery long-strike record achieved with an old soviet-era tank T-64. The target was destroyed
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.technology.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How Ukraine turns cheap tablets into lethal weapons
> 
> 
> Army SOS, an activist-led NGO, converts Android-based tablets into smart units with automated precision guidance.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.aljazeera.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> They do things differently.


Maybe we can reactivate those Cougar turrets mounted to the MVSV gun tractors to be our interim SPG


----------



## MilEME09

Colin Parkinson said:


> Maybe we can reactivate those Cougar turrets mounted to the MVSV gun tractors to be our interim SPG


Toss them on the TAPV?


----------



## Kirkhill

Colin Parkinson said:


> Maybe we can reactivate those Cougar turrets mounted to the MVSV gun tractors to be our interim SPG



SPG Trainers?


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Kirkhill said:


> SPG Trainers?


Clearly with the right software they could be combat effective.


----------



## Skysix

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1601583348715253760


Weird seeing Soviet style buttplate armor in OCP...


----------



## quadrapiper

Skysix said:


> Weird seeing Soviet style buttplate armor in OCP...


Is that armour, or a better-designed descendant of the strapped-on squares of foam mattress seen earlier in the war?


----------



## daftandbarmy

quadrapiper said:


> Is that armour, or a better-designed descendant of the strapped-on squares of foam mattress seen earlier in the war?



Apparently it's a nice, comfy, portable seat:


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/tacticalgear/comments/u268y5


----------



## RangerRay

daftandbarmy said:


> Apparently it's a nice, comfy, portable seat:
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/tacticalgear/comments/u268y5


Sweet!


----------



## MilEME09

RangerRay said:


> Sweet!


Now I want one....


----------



## Skysix

Discission of the tactical situation near Bahkmut


----------



## McG

Putin’s war is stressing Russia’s economy.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1601834444284903424


----------



## ueo

Colin Parkinson said:


> Clearly with the right software they could be combat effective.


Suspect any remaining tubes are "shot out". Short lifespan items with no replacements.


----------



## MilEME09

Good break down of the current situation near Svatove and Kreminna 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1601932601568251904


----------



## lenaitch

MilEME09 said:


> Now I want one....


Apparently quite popular with the turkey hunting crowd.


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> Discission of the tactical situation near Bahkmut




The reporting continues

That report was from Dec 7th.

Reports from Dec 6th to 10th


----------



## Retired AF Guy

MilEME09 said:


> Now I want one....


I have an outdoor jacket that has the same thing.


----------



## Kirkhill

And here is today's report from the Svatove-Kreminna direction.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Defmon mentioned this in his latest report; Apparently yesterday the Ukrainians hit (unconfirmed HIMARS) an army barracks in Melitopol housing Wagner soldiers and/or Chechens. Initial reports indicate "hundreds" killed.  Reports are also indicating a senior Chechen official was also killed. Videos below:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1601659879684349952


----------



## Colin Parkinson

This attacks forces Russians to house soldiers either farther from the Front or outside in the cold. An increase in friction.


----------



## brihard

Colin Parkinson said:


> This attacks forces Russians to house soldiers either farther from the Front or outside in the cold. An increase in friction.


Or just more dispersed in their billeting. Putting that many in one facility was dumb.


----------



## KevinB

brihard said:


> Or just more dispersed in their billeting. Putting that many in one facility was dumb.


They have some significant logistical issues feeding and supplying even the larger locations. 
   The dispersed positions just go without for the most part.


----------



## MilEME09

Retired AF Guy said:


> Defmon mentioned this in his latest report; Apparently yesterday the Ukrainians hit (unconfirmed HIMARS) an army barracks in Melitopol housing Wagner soldiers and/or Chechens. Initial reports indicate "hundreds" killed.  Reports are also indicating a senior Chechen official was also killed. Videos below:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1601659879684349952


Word is 150 to 200 casualties, the head of the LPR made a statement saying 50% of wounded will likely die due to a lack of medical supplies. Which doesn't bode well for the Russians as a whole


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> Word is 150 to 200 casualties, the head of the LPR made a statement saying 50% of wounded will likely die due to a lack of medical supplies. Which doesn't bode well for the Russians as a whole


----------



## Skysix

Seems like they didn't learn their own lesson from Yavoriv last March


----------



## Skysix

Quick question for anybody with experience using thermal imaging from small drones...

Would the portable quickly deployed fire shelters used by wildland firefighters diffuse or block well enough to confuse a drone that is not directly overhead?
Would it work.over a trench or as an improved SKOP kit item?


----------



## Skysix

Another smoking accident









						Partisans claim responsibility for setting fire to Russian base in occupied Crimea
					

Partisan movement "ATESH" (movement of Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars) announced that its activists were involved in setting fire to the barracks with Russian soldiers in the village of Radianskyi in the temporarily occupied Crimea. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Good2Golf

Skysix said:


> Quick question for anybody with experience using thermal imaging from small drones...
> 
> Would the portable quickly deployed fire shelters used by wildland firefighters diffuse or block well enough to confuse a drone that is not directly overhead?
> Would it work.over a trench or as an improved SKOP kit item?


Depends on the minimum resolvable temperature difference (MRTD) and band of the IR sensor.  3-5micron with ‘decent’ MRTD probably could discern when someone is using a masking shield, especially against notably different temperature background.  I don’t think it would give the thermal camouflage effect some might expect.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Skysix said:


> Another smoking accident
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Partisans claim responsibility for setting fire to Russian base in occupied Crimea
> 
> 
> Partisan movement "ATESH" (movement of Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars) announced that its activists were involved in setting fire to the barracks with Russian soldiers in the village of Radianskyi in the temporarily occupied Crimea. — Ukrinform.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Good2Golf

daftandbarmy said:


>


Indeed.   

Classic line from the partisans: “They [mobniks] were drunk and then smoked in the right place, causing the fire.” 😆


----------



## daftandbarmy

Good2Golf said:


> Indeed.
> 
> Classic line from the partisans: “They [mobniks] were drunk and then smoked in the right place, causing the fire.” 😆



The only tricky thing about this type of partisan activity is that it will undoubtedly result in stronger crack downs by the Russians on the local civpop. 

On the upside, this will draw resources away from the frontlines.


----------



## Skysix

Some pro Ukraine social media propaganda. But that is not a 600# black bear, it is a maybe 100# cub.

Never mind, I guess the analogy works even better that way....


----------



## Kirkhill

Russians inviting defeat in detail?










						“We can’t step on the ground – we walk over the bodies of dead Russians”: military analyst on the situation near Bakhmut
					

Fierce fighting continues in the Bakhmut region of Donetsk region for the fifth month. Having not achieved success, the Russian invaders decided to change their tactics, copying them from the Armed…




					ukrainetoday.org
				






> According to the expert, the Russians are beginning to disband or practically do not use their battalion tactical groups, which include up to 800 people.
> 
> “They are trying to repeat our tactics: to fight in small groups of 10-15 people. But they copied only the outside. Our groups have good communication and connection with each other. On the battlefield, the commanders of such groups have the right to make independent tactical decisions depending on the situation that is unfolding right now. But these small Russian groups are still tightly controlled centrally. That is, even if during the battle it is necessary to make some decision to the commander, he does not accept them, because it is necessary to coordinate with the “big bosses”. In a word, they copied it, but not completely,” Getman explained.
> 
> According to him, from 10 to 15 such groups can be sent into battle per day. Moreover, they mainly consist of newly mobilized soldiers who have actually not been trained in anything.
> 
> “This is what happens: a group of 10-15 people is walking, they are simply, by and large, shot and 3-5 people remain, retreat. In half an hour, as a maximum, the next group goes. Then there is a pause – they prepare new groups for slaughter, and the next day, or even a few hours later, this story repeats itself. And it is not the “Wagnerites” who are advancing, but the newly mobilized.


----------



## Kirkhill

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1602211753743585280


----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1602290939023728640


----------



## Skysix

Very stupid. Partisan politics and organisational inertia not only prolong the war and cost lives on both sides, but also makes it more likely that Putin will lash out. Hard and fast to the border in the long run is a better strategy than holding on to ammo and issuing RFP's for more production at the normal rate to replace it that will take years to really begin to have a significant impact. Pay more for fast delivery and require 24/7 production for the first million rounds to rebuild stocks and allow old stocks to be issued now.









						Ukraine Update: The infuriating reason the U.S. is suddenly slow-rolling Ukrainian military aid
					

by kos for Daily Kos Daily Kos Staff Sunday, December 11, 2022 An infantryman carries a mortar shell, somewhere in the Donbas UPDATE: Monday, Dec 12, 2022 · 2:37:51 AM · kos If you a…




					ukrainetoday.org


----------



## daftandbarmy

Good show you chaps....



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1602357579329540100


----------



## TacticalTea

daftandbarmy said:


> Good show you chaps....
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1602357579329540100


I swear these sorts of headlines are as bad as those that tell me we're just on the cusp of nuclear fusion, or that Trump is just about to get indicted.

Don't talk; act.

Anyway, maybe there's more to this particular one. I trust Wallace to be a generally reliable fella. Probably a genuine attempt to discourage further Russian terror attacks.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Boris despite his quirks and faults certainly acted on this issue.


----------



## NavyShooter




----------



## KevinB

_








						Slovakia readies transfer of upgraded MiG-29 warplanes to Ukraine
					

Bratislava is involving both Ukrainian and U.S. officials in the talks surrounding a prospective transfer.




					www.defensenews.com
				



_


----------



## KevinB

Exclusive: US finalizing plans to send Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine | CNN Politics
					

The Biden administration is finalizing plans to send the Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine that could be announced as soon as this week, according to two US officials and a senior administration official.




					edition.cnn.com


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1602711201909276675
and 

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1602310036830785536


----------



## ArmyRick

Guys seen this one yet?


----------



## RangerRay

KevinB said:


> Exclusive: US finalizing plans to send Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine | CNN Politics
> 
> 
> The Biden administration is finalizing plans to send the Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine that could be announced as soon as this week, according to two US officials and a senior administration official.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> edition.cnn.com


About f’in’ time.


----------



## brihard

KevinB said:


> Exclusive: US finalizing plans to send Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine | CNN Politics
> 
> 
> The Biden administration is finalizing plans to send the Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine that could be announced as soon as this week, according to two US officials and a senior administration official.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> edition.cnn.com


I would guess that they don’t plan to only send one or two.


----------



## GR66

Preliminary Lessons in Conventional Warfighting from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: February–July 2022​
Article from the RUSI website giving their analysis and some take-aways from the first stage of the Ukrainian conflict (pre-Ukrainian counter-offensive).

Covers some of the things that have been discussed here...precision fires, EW, UAVs and Counter-UAV technology, dispersion, redundancy, and ammo...lots and LOTS of ammo.

@Kirkhill will probably like this quote as well:


> For land forces, the pervasive ISTAR on the modern battlefield and the layering of multiple sensors at the tactical level make concealment exceedingly difficult to sustain. Survivability is often afforded by being sufficiently dispersed to become an uneconomical target, by moving quickly enough to disrupt the enemy’s kill chain and thereby evade engagement, or by entering hardened structures. Shell scrapes and hasty defences can increase immediate survivability but also risk the force becoming fixed by fire while precision fires and specialist munitions do not leave these positions survivable. Forces instead should prioritise concentrating effects while only concentrating mass under favourable conditions – with an ability to offer mutual support beyond line of sight – and should give precedence to mobility as a critical component of their survivability.


----------



## dapaterson

Not having read the article, let me summarize: ISR, fires, and the primacy of logistics.


----------



## FJAG

dapaterson said:


> Not having read the article, let me summarize: ISR, fires, and the primacy of logistics.


Time to deeply rethink "infantry centric" Army for "balanced" Army.

🍻


----------



## daftandbarmy

FJAG said:


> Time to deeply rethink "infantry centric" Army for "balanced" War Winning Army.
> 
> 🍻



There, FTFY


----------



## rmc_wannabe

FJAG said:


> Time to deeply rethink "infantry centric" Army for "balanced" Army.
> 
> 🍻



C4ISR is the new Blitzkrieg. If you can find your opponent first; then out think, out communicate, out coordinate (including logistic/fire support) them... you win. 

Like boxing, doesn't matter how heavy your opponent hits if you're moving and thinking 2 steps ahead of them.


----------



## KevinB

rmc_wannabe said:


> C4ISR is the new Blitzkrieg. If you can find your opponent first; then out think, out communicate, out coordinate (including logistic/fire support) them... you win.
> 
> Like boxing, doesn't matter how heavy your opponent hits if you're moving and thinking 2 steps ahead of them.


But you still need to be able to take a hit. 
 If you can’t, the opponent just waltzes on in.


----------



## FJAG

rmc_wannabe said:


> C4ISR is the new Blitzkrieg. If you can find your opponent first; then out think, out communicate, out coordinate (including logistic/fire support) them... you win.
> 
> Like boxing, doesn't matter how heavy your opponent hits if you're moving and thinking 2 steps ahead of them.


I'll argue the word "new". We've been building the new connected, enabled army for decades now but with limited success. I'm pretty certain that unless we buy a mature off-the-shelf-product from another military, the C4ISR capability will always be a bridge too far for Canada.

🍻


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> But you still need to be able to take a hit.
> If you can’t, the opponent just waltzes on in.



A very good point. Defense in depth is definitely something needed to afford that flexibility. 



FJAG said:


> I'll argue the word "new". We've been building the new connected, enabled army for decades now but with limited success. I'm pretty certain that unless we buy a mature off-the-shelf-product from another military, the C4ISR capability will always be a bridge too far for Canada.
> 
> 🍻


The problem that has always plagued the C4ISR aspect in Canada is how disjointed it is from other projects and how much lower it stacks on the priority list.

You can sell a new LAV or TAPV platform to burecrats and politicians, because it looks good in the photo op. A new VHF radio or SATCOM system is hard to conceptualize and even harder to market past "so... you want to swap a large green box for a slightly smaller green box?... 
OK...."

If we were to package the TacC2IS with that rugged, lethal... er..... "convening" platform, might see more traction.


----------



## FJAG

rmc_wannabe said:


> The problem that has always plagued the C4ISR aspect in Canada is how disjointed it is from other projects and how much lower it stacks on the priority list.


I'll add another complication. Bilingualism. I did three years in Ottawa directing a computerization/information management project and the biggest challenge was finding bilingual legal industry specific COTS solutions. You're almost required to go into a bespoke system rather than COTS. It drove me nuts and eliminated a lot of the perfect solutions that were available just south of the border.

 🍻


----------



## Kirkhill

FJAG said:


> I'll argue the word "new". We've been building the new connected, enabled army for decades now but with limited success. I'm pretty certain that unless we buy a mature off-the-shelf-product from another military, the C4ISR capability will always be a bridge too far for Canada.
> 
> 🍻



First problem

Thinking you can buy a software package that will solve your problem.

Software has to follow the needs and culture of the organization and grow to meet those needs.  Just like the Ukrainians are doing.


----------



## Kirkhill

For those of you that have access to Netflix Letterman and Zelenskyy is a must watch.  Next Ukrainian running for Prime Minister gets my vote.


----------



## FJAG

Kirkhill said:


> First problem
> 
> Thinking you can buy a software package that will solve your problem.
> 
> Software has to follow the needs and culture of the organization and grow to meet those needs.  Just like the Ukrainians are doing.


I'll challenge that.

Before selecting software one has to do a proper business analysis and fully understand how the business functions. That's not the same as adopting the culture. All too often existing business practices are mired in antiquated processes. This is why guys like @daftandbarmy have a job. 

My project was various legal practices where the software industry had already made large investments in properly understanding the business culture and developing COTS solutions for it. That works for many business lines even within DND and, I suggest, also in the line of combat functions. The issue is in looking at how different countries' armies do things and compare it to our own and adapt and change where it makes sense and is practical. Why invest untold amounts of time and treasure in fundamental research and development for a scratch-built system if those costs and efforts and time have already been spent by someone with a bigger budget?  Just to enshrine some minor "Canadiana" to it?

🍻


----------



## Skysix

NavyShooter said:


>


Wonder if there is a fully translated copy of the Russian report available on-line...


----------



## Skysix

ArmyRick said:


> Guys seen this one yet?


OTOH if there was no US push to restrict Ukraines ability to fight the war properly by throttling supply, the recent deep strikes would not be incremental, and the war would be far closer to over.

As to the UAF disclosing their strategic and tactical plans to NATO, get the F real. NATO is hardly unpenetrated nor fully sympathetic. You can only get unconditional information like that with unconditional support. Which they still do not have.

There is still a lack of understanding by the western public of tbe difference between direct military aid (US about $27B, Canada about $1), humanitarian aid, and support of the local military industrial complex in buying and building new S that will not be lend-leased and hit the battlefield in any time that is useful.


----------



## Kirkhill

Odesa, Ukrainian Mob, Putiniskas, Israelis and the Chinese - Some house clearing going on?









						Odesa Corruption Reveals Russian, Chinese and Internal Ukrainian Involvement | KyivPost
					

A recent series of raids in the port city of Odesa have thrown a spotlight on the shadowy world of counterfeit cigarettes and the ongoing influence of...




					www.kyivpost.com


----------



## Kirkhill

FJAG said:


> I'll challenge that.
> 
> Before selecting software one has to do a proper business analysis and fully understand how the business functions. That's not the same as adopting the culture. All too often existing business practices are mired in antiquated processes. This is why guys like @daftandbarmy have a job.
> 
> My project was various legal practices where the software industry had already made large investments in properly understanding the business culture and developing COTS solutions for it. That works for many business lines even within DND and, I suggest, also in the line of combat functions. The issue is in looking at how different countries' armies do things and compare it to our own and adapt and change where it makes sense and is practical. Why invest untold amounts of time and treasure in fundamental research and development for a scratch-built system if those costs and efforts and time have already been spent by someone with a bigger budget?  Just to enshrine some minor "Canadiana" to it?
> 
> 🍻



I agree that's why D&B et al have jobs - but I have seen many software projects fail because "buy-in" was limited to the champion who promoted the project.  The project died with the promotion of the champion.

Absolutely no project succeeds (I state that categorically and unequivocally) without the needs of the shop floor being addressed first.  It is easier to build on that culture than it is to change that culture.   Japanese software, German software, Ukrainian software, is not going to solve Canadian payroll problems.


----------



## McG

UK MoD not ready to endorse rumours that Gerasimov has been fired.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1602912662328954880


----------



## KevinB

Congress supersizes munitions production with emergency authorities
					

The NDAA provides billions in munitions funding and emergency procurement authorities with an eye toward competing against China and supporting Ukraine.




					www.defensenews.com


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> Congress supersizes munitions production with emergency authorities
> 
> 
> The NDAA provides billions in munitions funding and emergency procurement authorities with an eye toward competing against China and supporting Ukraine.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.defensenews.com





> The $858 billion National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal 2023, which the House passed 350-80 on Thursday and is expected to face a Senate vote this week, authorizes more than $2.7 billion in across-the-board munitions funding. That’s on top of $5.9 billion for the Navy to procure additional munitions and expand U.S. industrial base production capacity.



Is it just me or does it seem kind of penny wise and pound foolish that the enhanced ammunition budget amounts to a rounding error in the estimates?

I would be inclined to start looking at the number of targets I needed to serve in a war, then figure the number of stowed kills, then figure the platforms, then the manpower.  Or is that the wrong way of looking at things?


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> Is it just me or does it seem kind of penny wise and pound foolish that the enhanced ammunition budget amounts to a rounding error in the estimates?
> 
> I would be inclined to start looking at the number of targets I needed to serve in a war, then figure the number of stowed kills, then figure the platforms, then the manpower.  Or is that the wrong way of looking at things?


It’s almost a 9 Billion increase over previous years.  
    While the historic formula for ammunition production/acquisition/storage/training etc is classified, I suspect that there is some of what you mention in those numbers.  

Part of the issues is our 2.5 War mentality.  
   So we aren’t accounting for what the Russians have lost, and so we keep hoarding for Russia, China and a Third, a Middle Power conflict.


----------



## Kirkhill

I haven't been following the scoreboard for a while

Losses - a troop of tanks, a company of IFVs and seven or eight companies of PBI

We can say PBI with relative certainty because of the very low numbers of materiel losses

The Ukrainians may be short of ammunition and/or the Russians are short of materiel targets.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> It’s almost a 9 Billion increase over previous years.
> While the historic formula for ammunition production/acquisition/storage/training etc is classified, I suspect that there is some of what you mention in those numbers.
> 
> Part of the issues is our 2.5 War mentality.
> So we aren’t accounting for what the Russians have lost, and so we keep hoarding for Russia, China and a Third, a Middle Power conflict.



I recognize 9 Billion isn't exactly chump change but it still only represents 1% of the total budget.


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> I recognize 9 Billion isn't exactly chump change but it still only represents 1% of the total budget.


The key is what systems had higher burn rates than anticipated. 

The other issue that I see, we are also extrapolating Ukraine’s burn rate to our own, when Ukraine doesn’t have all the other enablers.  Maybe we should get them more enablers.  

1)  I suspect Ukraine burns more MANPAD because they don’t have a layered GBAD system.  We (USA) have 6 different GBAD systems so MANPAD are primarily point defense systems for local units.

2) As well due to the Air situation Ukraine tube and Rocket Artillery are called to do more on ground work than would be typical for a NATO force.  


3) Due to a lack of CAS and AH assets, more ATGM’s are being used to strike AFV’s and structures that a NATO mission would generally need.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> The key is what systems had higher burn rates than anticipated.
> 
> The other issue that I see, we are also extrapolating Ukraine’s burn rate to our own, when Ukraine doesn’t have all the other enablers.  Maybe we should get them more enablers.





KevinB said:


> 1)  I suspect Ukraine burns more MANPAD because they don’t have a layered GBAD system.  We (USA) have 6 different GBAD systems so MANPAD are primarily point defense systems for local units.



On the other hand the C-UAS requirement has also put a load on the MANPADs, even as it has reinvigorated the mid-calibre Light Anti-Aircraft Artillery requirement - something that has been dormant or deceased for decades.



KevinB said:


> 2) As well due to the Air situation Ukraine tube and Rocket Artillery are called to do more on ground work than would be typical for a NATO force.



Another way to look at that situation is that NATO hasn't recognized the capabilities of the tube and rocket artillery and has relied more heavily on air forces than it needed to.



KevinB said:


> 3) Due to a lack of CAS and AH assets, more ATGM’s are being used to strike AFV’s and structures that a NATO mission would generally need.



While Ukraine is lacking CAS and AH assets it has been employing ATGMs that would have been employed by those aircraft 

TOW, HOT, Hellfire, Brimstone.   All of those are getting eaten up even if they are being carried by fighters and helicopters.  Similarly Harpoons and NSMs that might have been launched from ships and fighters are being launched from ground mounts as artillery.


----------



## Kirkhill

From Reddit

Ukrainian designed and built MTLB -  11.9 tonnes (about the same weight as the old M113 and Grizzly) - designed for marginal terrain

So this is the best available vehicle doing its best in the current environment.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/zlp0p2

Have to wonder how well the 3rd and 10th vehicles would manage following in the same tracks.

Another reason why there are so few vehicle kills.  The Russians can't get the vehicles they have to the fight.


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> The key is what systems had higher burn rates than anticipated.
> 
> The other issue that I see, we are also extrapolating Ukraine’s burn rate to our own, when Ukraine doesn’t have all the other enablers.  Maybe we should get them more enablers.
> 
> 1)  I suspect Ukraine burns more MANPAD because they don’t have a layered GBAD system.  We (USA) have 6 different GBAD systems so MANPAD are primarily point defense systems for local units.
> 
> 2) As well due to the Air situation Ukraine tube and Rocket Artillery are called to do more on ground work than would be typical for a NATO force.
> 
> 
> 3) Due to a lack of CAS and AH assets, more ATGM’s are being used to strike AFV’s and structures that a NATO mission would generally need.



The other issue is that they can't attack the launch sites or the airfields from where these things are being launched in Russia, or disrupt the supply chain from Iran.

Yet.


----------



## Kirkhill

Antonov-2 as SAM sponges?


----------



## CBH99

FJAG said:


> I'll add another complication. Bilingualism. I did three years in Ottawa directing a computerization/information management project and the biggest challenge was finding bilingual legal industry specific COTS solutions. You're almost required to go into a bespoke system rather than COTS. It drove me nuts and eliminated a lot of the perfect solutions that were available just south of the border.
> 
> 🍻


I’m not doubting what you’re saying in the slightest.  I’m just… 😒

Why did it have to be ‘bilingual legal industry specific’??


I don’t mean why did it have to be bilingual in a general sense of it being Canadian - but in the sense, for example, the training material for it only came in English?

_Are LAV's bilingual too?  When 25mm hit Taliban, did it say "Hello!" AND "Bonjour! ??_


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukraine taking steps against its own oligarchs.



			https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/12/12/ukraines-overlooked-nationalization-of-strategic-enterprises-deals-blow-to-oligarchy-and-corruption/


----------



## Kirkhill

CBH99 said:


> I’m not doubting what you’re saying in the slightest.  I’m just… 😒
> 
> Why did it have to be ‘bilingual legal industry specific’??
> 
> 
> I don’t mean why did it have to be bilingual in a general sense of it being Canadian - but in the sense, for example, the training material for it only came in English?
> 
> _Are LAV's bilingual too?  When 25mm hit Taliban, did it say "Hello!" AND "Bonjour!_



Even without "bilingualism"  I think the Canadian package would also have to navigate its way through both the Code Civile and Common Law.  The States have to deal with Code Civile Lousiana and the Brits have to deal with Scottish Law which also is strongly tied to Justinian principles.


----------



## Kirkhill

With all the negative press Germany has been getting I thought a little positive press might be in order....


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/zl81ms


----------



## KevinB

brihard said:


> I would guess that they don’t plan to only send one or two.


Right now it seems to be only one battery.  
  There are a lot of beliefs that Patriot isn’t a great system anyway for Ukraine as it’s primarily an anti missile system that can also target Aircraft.  Most of the smaller systems used against Ukraine these days (the Iranian drones) aren’t what Patriot was designed for.  

But hopefully combined with Avenger, and the Stingers it will help : and ideally lead to MEADS, THAAD and MSHORAD being sent as well.


----------



## Spencer100

Skysix said:


> There is still a lack of understanding by the western public of tbe difference between direct military aid (US about $27B, Canada about $1), humanitarian aid, and support of the local military industrial complex in buying and building new S that will not be lend-leased and hit the battlefield in any time that is useful.


 There is a large lack of understanding to of what the 27B in aid is also.  That is not just the paid cost of the weapons given.  It includes a giant part of the money never leaving the US.  The replacement cost of the donated weapon which most likely is much greater than the old warehoused one.  The logistics and management of the program to donate.  Also a large part of the operation budget of US forces "helping" IE AWAC's and P-8 etc etc. I would say the majority of the 27B doesn't even see Ukraine.  Here is a Canadian example the Gov paid for the Ukraine use of Radarsat images. That money was just moved from one pocket to the other and the data turned over to the Ukrainians.


----------



## KevinB

Spencer100 said:


> There is a large lack of understanding to of what the 27B in aid is also.  That is not just the paid cost of the weapons given.  It includes a giant part of the money never leaving the US.  The replacement cost of the donated weapon which most likely is much greater than the old warehoused one.  The logistics and management of the program to donate.  Also a large part of the operation budget of US forces "helping" IE AWAC's and P-8 etc etc. I would say the majority of the 27B doesn't even see Ukraine.  Here is a Canadian example the Gov paid for the Ukraine use of Radarsat images. That money was just moved from one pocket to the other and the data turned over to the Ukrainians.


Not entirely true, at least for down here. 

   Weapons packages are spelled out in detail.  Provided downtown weapons and munitions from inventory where valued at the original acquisition costs (the on the book cost), yes newly acquired items provided where done at the acquisition cost but with non of our typical FMS fees included.  
    Operational Support costs of US Forces Europe etc haven’t been included, in any of the USG budget allocations.  Those are eaten out of theatre O&M and have been plussed up from other contingency bills.  That includes the auditing forces send to ensure that weapons etc are actually being used and deployed/distributed and accounted for correctly. 

Plus there is also a lot of ‘Black’ Money flowing from JSOC and in the US Intelligence community that doesn’t appear in the lists.  

Plus all of the Humanitarian aid is itemized either by item or actual provided dollars to the Ukrainian government.


----------



## Rifleman62

Battalion Chief of Staff| We are beaten everywhere -this is a gesture of goodwill| @Zolkin Volodymyr​




This officer is a professional Captain. He is really indoctrinated/brainwashed from growing up in the Russian system. Reminds me of the Hitler Youth/12 SS Panzer Div who murdered mbrs of my Regiment on 8 Jun 44.

Volodymyr has lots of POW interviews on youtube. In this interview he states that Ukrainian KIA or casualties are 30K, which is first time I have heard that figure.

Long interview.


----------



## Spencer100

KevinB said:


> Not entirely true, at least for down here.
> 
> Weapons packages are spelled out in detail.  Provided downtown weapons and munitions from inventory where valued at the original acquisition costs (the on the book cost), yes newly acquired items provided where done at the acquisition cost but with non of our typical FMS fees included.
> Operational Support costs of US Forces Europe etc haven’t been included, in any of the USG budget allocations.  Those are eaten out of theatre O&M and have been plussed up from other contingency bills.  That includes the auditing forces send to ensure that weapons etc are actually being used and deployed/distributed and accounted for correctly.
> 
> Plus there is also a lot of ‘Black’ Money flowing from JSOC and in the US Intelligence community that doesn’t appear in the lists.
> 
> Plus all of the Humanitarian aid is itemized either by item or actual provided dollars to the Ukrainian government.


Hmmm...Not what I read. But I can't find the sources so I will differ to you.  But I thought Defence News had said the costs were the replacement costs of the weapons not the booked value.


----------



## KevinB

Spencer100 said:


> Hmmm...Not what I read. But I can't find the sources so I will differ to you.  But I thought Defence News had said the costs were the replacement costs of the weapons not the booked value.


Congress has a litany of reports that are pretty detailed.  
    Some of the system values may be suspect due to the inability of replacements to be had.


----------



## Skysix

KevinB said:


> It’s almost a 9 Billion increase over previous years.
> While the historic formula for ammunition production/acquisition/storage/training etc is classified, I suspect that there is some of what you mention in those numbers.
> 
> Part of the issues is our 2.5 War mentality.
> So we aren’t accounting for what the Russians have lost, and so we keep hoarding for Russia, China and a Third, a Middle Power conflict.


Based on the old rates of consumption, or the rates now being seen? I suspect the former which might mean enough for s single war fought in the current style with China.

Agree with premise though. We should re-evaluate the current Russian capabities. And vastly increase Excaliber vs dumb rounds (which will also ease the logistics chain that now has batteries and drones to add in)


----------



## Spencer100

KevinB said:


> Congress has a litany of reports that are pretty detailed.
> Some of the system values may be suspect due to the inability of replacements to be had.


But lets look at a different way.  If one donated Javelin is sent to Ukraine is replaced the Raytheon JV gets to sell a new weapon. So all that "new" money from congress gets to stay in the US and the MIC.  Assuming 1 to 1 replacement over above the current buys and that does look to be the case.    Add to the fact the Contractors are going to charge to upgrade the physical plant and manufacturing base also for the increase in orders.  That's a great gig!   

Note to self:  Find a business that production capital is supplied by the customer upfront.


----------



## FJAG

CBH99 said:


> I’m not doubting what you’re saying in the slightest.  I’m just… 😒
> 
> Why did it have to be ‘bilingual legal industry specific’??
> 
> 
> I don’t mean why did it have to be bilingual in a general sense of it being Canadian - but in the sense, for example, the training material for it only came in English?
> 
> _Are LAV's bilingual too?  When 25mm hit Taliban, did it say "Hello!" AND "Bonjour! ??_


It had to be legal specific because it was for the JAG. It's not the training material that is the issue.

Most legal software is basically a data base that operates on tables, forms, queries, and reports. The database tables themselves don't care what language you use and can accept either English or French text. Forms and Reports, however, consist of two elements, labels which are part of the form and text which is contained in the database table. Reports are similar. In order to be truly bilingual, forms and reports need to have bilingual labels (either a bilingual label or alternate French/English version of the form/report) That's no problem with a database program like SQL or MSAccess or even a collaboration tool like SharePoint where you build your own front end forms and reports, but it's impossible (at least it was in 2006-9) to edit labels in COTS legal software - it was massively English only. Amongst other things, our job was to create a system that replaced over a dozen MSAccess databases that JAG's IT department had written over the years, and some of which were struggling to be maintained and most of which couldn't be accessed outside of the Constitution Building.

The legislation requires a system like that to be bilingual.

🍻


----------



## Spencer100

FJAG said:


> It had to be legal specific because it was for the JAG. It's not the training material that is the issue.
> 
> Most legal software is basically a data base that operates on tables, forms, queries, and reports. The database tables themselves don't care what language you use and can accept either English or French text. Forms and Reports, however, consist of two elements, labels which are part of the form and text which is contained in the database table. Reports are similar. In order to be truly bilingual, forms and reports need to have bilingual labels (either a bilingual label or alternate French/English version of the form/report) That's no problem with a database program like SQL or MSAccess or even a collaboration tool like SharePoint where you build your own front end forms and reports, but it's impossible (at least it was in 2006-9) to edit labels in COTS legal software - it was massively English only. Amongst other things, our job was to create a system that replaced over a dozen MSAccess databases that JAG's IT department had written over the years, and some of which were struggling to be maintained and most of which couldn't be accessed outside of the Constitution Building.
> 
> The legislation requires a system like that to be bilingual.
> 
> 🍻


Business Opportunity!  Did you find a system?   

You in?  Get the Gov too upfront the capital..... 

Special Canada only purchase. 

Or resell a international system with a Canadian middleman or two. Add french.....for 10x times the cost.

And that is how you get a $500 million ArriveCan app. 

and $1.1 million GG trip........etc etc


----------



## FJAG

Spencer100 said:


> Business Opportunity!  Did you find a system?
> 
> You in?  Get the Gov too upfront the capital.....
> 
> Special Canada only purchase.
> 
> Or resell a international system with a Canadian middleman or two. Add french.....for 10x times the cost.
> 
> And that is how you get a $500 million ArriveCan app.
> 
> and $1.1 million GG trip........etc etc


We had four general system to build, one of which was case management which is where the problem was. 

We never did fill that although there was a company from Europe that said they could. They couldn't. We had half a million plus budgeted for that. I timed out (apparently at age sixty you turn stupid and need to retire) before the project was finished. We had built the technical WAN architecture with a Protected B network, had established records management and had put the basic tools in place for case and knowledge management but, quite frankly, I don't know which way the subsequent project staff went after I left. I was leaning toward a house-built solution on the back-end SQL and SharePoint structure for case management. It would have worked with the knowledge management component as well but I felt it slipping away because leadership wouldn't buy into the frontline effort needed to build and maintain something that was more than an unauthoritative military law version of Wikipedia. 

One of the things that kept haunting me was that with a custom-modified COTS case management system (which the European one would be) was that every time you needed to modify the forms or reports you would need to go back to the manufacturer to do that at exorbitant costs. I didn't want to saddle JAG with unpredictable future expenses or limitations.

🍻


----------



## Kirkhill

FJAG said:


> We had four general system to build, one of which was case management which is where the problem was.
> 
> We never did fill that although there was a company from Europe that said they could. They couldn't. We had half a million plus budgeted for that. I timed out (apparently at age sixty you turn stupid and need to retire) before the project was finished. We had built the technical WAN architecture with a Protected B network, had established records management and had put the basic tools in place for case and knowledge management but, quite frankly, I don't know which way the subsequent project staff went after I left. I was leaning toward a house-built solution on the back-end SQL and SharePoint structure for case management. It would have worked with the knowledge management component as well but I felt it slipping away because leadership wouldn't buy into the frontline effort needed to build and maintain something that was more than an unauthoritative military law version of Wikipedia.
> 
> *One of the things that kept haunting me was that with a custom-modified COTS case management system (which the European one would be) was that every time you needed to modify the forms or reports you would need to go back to the manufacturer to do that at exorbitant costs. I didn't want to saddle JAG with unpredictable future expenses or limitations.*
> 
> 🍻



I was just talking to a potential client last month about a database that he was going to be rolling out on all his future jobs.  The key element was that the outputs, the forms, reports and dashboards could be generated to the needs of the user on an ongoing basis.  You could generate standard dashboards and routine reports you could also easily generate customised reports at operator, supervisor and manager levels.

The problem you identified is one that I have struggled with in most applications.  The programme suppliers generally, if not invariably, want to define the anticipated outputs on day one and then build their system around those reports.  This alternate system seems to be more of an effective catalogue of any data available coupled with a good AI search engine.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

As a database user, I want a selection of defined reports based on typical reporting requirements of the program/department and a custom report generator, that allows you to select any of the fields and combine as desired. We had that in one database and it was beautiful. Currently using a database which has promise, but the report generating feature sucks. The big issue is the organization has limited funds to improve the database.


----------



## Skysix

Rifleman62 said:


> Battalion Chief of Staff| We are beaten everywhere -this is a gesture of goodwill| @Zolkin Volodymyr​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This officer is a professional Captain. He is really indoctrinated/brainwashed from growing up in the Russian system.


I have seen some USMC O-3's that would not answer all that differently


----------



## Kirkhill

FJAG said:


> We had four general system to build, one of which was case management which is where the problem was.
> 
> We never did fill that although there was a company from Europe that said they could. They couldn't. We had half a million plus budgeted for that. I timed out (apparently at age sixty you turn stupid and need to retire) before the project was finished. We had built the technical WAN architecture with a Protected B network, had established records management and had put the basic tools in place for case and knowledge management but, quite frankly, I don't know which way the subsequent project staff went after I left. I was leaning toward a house-built solution on the back-end SQL and SharePoint structure for case management. It would have worked with the knowledge management component as well but I felt it slipping away because leadership wouldn't buy into the frontline effort needed to build and maintain something that was more than an unauthoritative military law version of Wikipedia.
> 
> One of the things that kept haunting me was that with a custom-modified COTS case management system (which the European one would be) was that every time you needed to modify the forms or reports you would need to go back to the manufacturer to do that at exorbitant costs. I didn't want to saddle JAG with unpredictable future expenses or limitations.
> 
> 🍻



This may deserve reallocation - perhaps Future Structure

Related article



> EXCLUSIVE: Pentagon not prepared for software updates at the speed of war, report finds​From the F-35 to night-vision goggles, how military hardware performs in combat is increasingly driven by its software. But Pentagon procurement is too slow to keep code up to date, according to a forthcoming report from the Hudson Institute.​











						EXCLUSIVE: Pentagon not prepared for software updates at the speed of war, report finds - Breaking Defense
					

From the F-35 to night-vision goggles, how military hardware performs in combat is increasingly driven by its software. But Pentagon procurement is too slow to keep code up to date, according to a forthcoming report from the Hudson Institute.




					breakingdefense.com


----------



## Spencer100

Kirkhill said:


> This may deserve reallocation - perhaps Future Structure
> 
> Related article
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> EXCLUSIVE: Pentagon not prepared for software updates at the speed of war, report finds - Breaking Defense
> 
> 
> From the F-35 to night-vision goggles, how military hardware performs in combat is increasingly driven by its software. But Pentagon procurement is too slow to keep code up to date, according to a forthcoming report from the Hudson Institute.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> breakingdefense.com


The coder is now just now more person in the long line and history of the military baggage train and camp followers.  He just just doesn't have to really travel along now.  

But is the future going to the winners that adapt and code the fastest?  

Example of "toy" drones from the Source use to kill in real life.  And then drone on drone combat that has been recorded.  And that video of the RU soldier seeing a drone follow him you can see his fear.   Damn that is my 1980's Scifi nightmare stuff right there.


----------



## Kirkhill

Spencer100 said:


> The coder is now just now more person in the long line and history of the military baggage train and camp followers.  He just just doesn't have to really travel along now.
> 
> But is the future going to the winners that adapt and code the fastest?
> 
> Example of "toy" drones from the Source use to kill in real life.  And then drone on drone combat that has been recorded.  And that video of the RU soldier seeing a drone follow him you can see his fear.   Damn that is my 1980's Scifi nightmare stuff right there.



And fully exploiting COTS solutions...?









						Go-fast defense acquisition strategies can create risks that commercial technologies can counter - Breaking Defense
					

There are ways to leverage proven commercial technology that enables warfighters to more quickly benefit from modern capabilities.




					breakingdefense.com
				






> One way to help lower the risk of a go-fast approach is to consider the use of commercial technology. By the time a new technology makes its way to the commercial market, it has gone through significant development, testing and validation that helps reduce third- and fourth-order impacts which may be a factor with unproven technology.



And the real problem child these days - IP.



> *Q: How can commercial companies be encouraged to participate in defense pursuits when there are potential questions around who owns the design work and intellectual property?
> 
> duMont:* Significant investment has been made by industry to bring technologies to the commercial market, and no company wants to give away its intellectual property (IP). There is room for government and industry to better collaborate on how IP and data rights to component and product design are handled. The Army, through its most recent IP policy directive, is clearly moving in the right direction to foster a fair and reasonable approach that addresses both industry and government equities.
> 
> IP and data rights policy should reflect a thoughtful, consistent and balanced approach where the IP and actual data needed throughout a system’s lifecycle are identified early in the process. There should be an approach to develop customized IP strategies that are tailored to the unique requirements of the program and take into consideration the benefit of greater commercialization. To truly benefit from more commercial investments in the defense and government marketplace, the government will need to closely consider commercial IP concerns.


----------



## Spencer100

Kirkhill said:


> And fully exploiting COTS solutions...?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Go-fast defense acquisition strategies can create risks that commercial technologies can counter - Breaking Defense
> 
> 
> There are ways to leverage proven commercial technology that enables warfighters to more quickly benefit from modern capabilities.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> breakingdefense.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And the real problem child these days - IP.


Its going to be a bigger issue in your personal life too.  You will not even really own a piece of equipment you will have the usage of an item.  Payment upfront and/or monthly fees for continuing support and usage.  Its all about the monthly fee....and continuing revenue and data mining for the companies.  Ask farmers about the right to repair of new equipment.  Your new electric car will be built with all the features and functions but will only be turned on if that option purchased or the monthly subscription paid.


----------



## Kirkhill

Spencer100 said:


> Its going to be a bigger issue in your personal life too.  You will not even really own a piece of equipment you will have the usage of an item.  Payment upfront and/or monthly fees for continuing support and usage.  Its all about the monthly fee....and continuing revenue and data mining for the companies.  Ask farmers about the right to repair of new equipment.  Your new electric car will be built with all the features and functions but will only be turned on if that option purchased or the monthly subscription paid.



Or your laptop, tablet and phone - monthly charges to be continuously updated rather than holding last year's model.


----------



## Skysix

And that is why the explosion of 'retro-mod' vehicles with the useful improvements but without most of the extra crap and electronics.






(Except in Canada, where the M1 is prohibited)


----------



## FJAG

Kirkhill said:


> I was just talking to a potential client last month about a database that he was going to be rolling out on all his future jobs.  The key element was that the outputs, the forms, reports and dashboards could be generated to the needs of the user on an ongoing basis.  You could generate standard dashboards and routine reports you could also easily generate customised reports at operator, supervisor and manager levels.
> 
> The problem you identified is one that I have struggled with in most applications.  The programme suppliers generally, if not invariably, want to define the anticipated outputs on day one and then build their system around those reports.  This alternate system seems to be more of an effective catalogue of any data available coupled with a good AI search engine.


PM inbound


----------



## daftandbarmy

The Neo-Crimean War is top of mind....


Why Crimea is Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s greatest bargaining chip​As Boris Johnson makes an intervention on the status of the peninsula, will Ukraine really insist on Russia giving it back?









						Why Crimea is Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s greatest bargaining chip
					

As Boris Johnson makes an intervention on the status of the peninsula, will Ukraine really insist on Russia giving it back?




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## lenaitch

Spencer100 said:


> Its going to be a bigger issue in your personal life too.  You will not even really own a piece of equipment you will have the usage of an item.  Payment upfront and/or monthly fees for continuing support and usage.  Its all about the monthly fee....and continuing revenue and data mining for the companies.  Ask farmers about the right to repair of new equipment.  Your new electric car will be built with all the features and functions but will only be turned on if that option purchased or the monthly subscription paid.











						Car companies want to make billions by charging monthly fees for features like heated seats, but buyers won't pay up
					

How would you feel about paying $10, $20, or $100 per month to access features already built into your car? Some buyers are calling foul.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## Kirkhill

From Gen Zaluzhnyi - CinC AF Ukraine


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/zmkz6q















						Putin preparing major offensive in new year, Ukraine defence minister warns
					

Defence minister suggests attack could happen by February, but other officials indicate it could come in January




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Kirkhill

And from the Eastern Front commander Col Gen Syrskyi - (Responsible for the defence of Kyiv and the Kharkiv counter)

Interview on effects of mobilization and artillery.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/zmgddd


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukraine's greatest asset?  Ukrainians in occupied territory?









						Russian security teams are scrambling to hunt down Ukrainian spies as locals in captured towns direct fire and gather critical intel
					

Behind enemy lines, civilians and soldiers alike have helped Ukraine uncover Russian positions and target for them for strikes.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## Kirkhill

The Propaganda Wars - Russian efforts in the US.









						Investigation: Where does Russian disinformation incubate in US?
					

The war in Ukraine is being decided on the battlefields in the south and east of the country. But how it’s discussed in America helps shape those battlefields. Military aid from the West has helped Ukrainian forces turn the tide.




					kyivindependent.com


----------



## Kirkhill

EU continues to play politics

EU has had a long running feud with both Poland and Hungary that revolves around whose law prevails - national parliaments or the EU's courts.

The EU, at the same time it has been pledging money for Ukraine has been withholding money from both Hungary and Poland.  Hungary has responded by withholding approval to release the funds to Ukraine and has made it to Ukraine's naughty list.  Poland, to its great credit, has set aside its dispute with the EU and absorbed costs nationally to provide sanctuary, arms, training, political support and in a bunch of material, economic, political and other ways, to Ukraine.

At the beginning of this week the EU was caught in yet another scandal with a Vice President of the EU parliament and a group of others being arrested on grounds of corruption for accepting bribes from Qatar to influence EU policy.  Corruption charges are what the EU has directed at both Poland and Hungary as well as Ukraine and has been used to pressure all of them to recognize EU legal supremacy.

The charges against the EU were considered serious enough that it prompted action by Von der Leyen and the President of the European Parliament whose deputies had been arrested.  They could be considered as having lost the moral high ground to pressure both Poland and Hungary.









						'Very future of EU at stake tonight as corruption probe deepens'
					

The very future of the European Union is at stake tonight as a corruption scandal at the heart of the institution widened further and threatened to bring the whole edifice tumbling down.




					www.express.co.uk
				











						EU mocked as Brussels scrambles to save face over Qatargate
					

Belgian police conducted more raids at European Parliament offices Monday as the legislature's president pledged to launch an internal investigation into corruption allegations and the bloc's top official called for the creation of an EU-wide independent ethics body.




					www.express.co.uk
				











						European Parliament strips Eva Kaili of VP role over Qatar graft scandal
					

The parliament acted quickly to loosen ties with Kaili, with 625 MEPs voting in favour of the move, only one against and two abstaining




					www.theglobeandmail.com
				




The EU has been faced with a British aligned awkward squad that included the New Hanseatic League and a sub-set of NATO known as the British led Joint Expeditionary Force as well as the Eastern Bloc known as the Bucharest 8.  The New Hanseatic League, JEF and the Bucharest 8 (Britain, Netherlands, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania and Slovenia) among others.  These countries have been the most strongly aligned with Ukraine and most strongly opposed to the Franco-German EU policies that dominate in Brussels.

That pressure, aligned with the Qatar scandal in Parliament has tended to undermine the EU.

Advantage the Northerners and the Easterners.

And then, yesterday

Ukraine adopted all the laws that the EU demanded as preconditions to Ukraine joining the EU.  Some of these laws, on minorities, the press and the courts were the very ones to which Poland and Hungary were objecting









						Ukrainian Parliament carries out all EU Commission’s recommendations for negotiations on Ukraine’s EU accession
					

The Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) has carried out all the recommendations that the EU Commission required to start the negotiations about Ukraine’s EU accession.




					www.pravda.com.ua
				




The Ukrainian Parliament was addressed in person and congratulated by the vey EU Parliament President whose deputies had been arrested for corruption.









						LT - European Parliament President Roberta METSOLA addressed the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine (Version with Lithuanian subtitles) | European Parliament Multimedia Centre
					

European Parliament Multimedia Centre




					multimedia.europarl.europa.eu
				





This prompted this response from Poland









						Linking Ukraine aid to corporate tax is blackmail: PM Morawiecki
					

Poland holds up the EU's formal adoption of a minimum corporate tax for large companies.




					tvpworld.com
				






Concurrent with the EU laws implementation Ukraine has clamped down on oligarchs









						Odesa Corruption Reveals Russian, Chinese and Internal Ukrainian Involvement | KyivPost
					

A recent series of raids in the port city of Odesa have thrown a spotlight on the shadowy world of counterfeit cigarettes and the ongoing influence of...




					www.kyivpost.com
				




and the EU released 18 BEU in funds that had been promised but withheld over the dispute with Hungary concerning the very laws adopted by Ukraine and objected to by Poland.









						Council adopts €18 billion assistance to Ukraine
					

The Council today adopted €18 billion of macro-financial assistance to Ukraine.




					www.consilium.europa.eu
				





This has led to the EU and NATO finally coming close to a joint declaration on support for Ukraine.










						EU and NATO near long-delayed joint pledge to back Ukraine
					

The text, far from groundbreaking, has nonetheless faced months of diplomatic delays.




					www.politico.eu
				





Although Turkey and Cyprus are mentioned as stumbling blocks I can't help but feel that Brexit, the Northern Ireland Protocols, British Fishing Rights and Channel Crossers, all of which irked France, as well as the exploitation of JEF and NATO by Boris Johnson and Liz Truss - resulting in Boris marshalling Sweden and Finland into NATO with Britain's independent nuclear guarantees, the UK and JEF backed alliance of Poland, Ukraine and the UK - the very things that made Boris in particular and Britain in general so popular in Ukraine and raised  the UK's international profile.  All to the detriment of both the EU and the US State Department.

As always, in my opinion, money won and politics (the people) lost.

On the other hand I sense that there is a much longer game in play - one that could still see a massive reorientation of the post WW2 order of things.

The Ukrainians, for all their desire to join clubs like the EU and NATO are embodying the ideals of nationalists and populists globally.   To the consternation of the Globalist fraternity that is forced to be seen as supportive while not wishing to be overly supportive - not wishing to upset the current order.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Holy crap...

Exploding gift sends Polish police chief to hospital after Ukraine visit​
Poland’s police chief Jaroslaw Szymczyk was hospitalized with minor injuries on Wednesday after a gift that he had received in Ukraine suddenly exploded, according to a government statement.

“Yesterday at 7:50 a.m., an explosion occurred in a room adjacent to the office of the Police Chief,” Poland’s Interior Ministry said on Thursday.

“During the Police Chief’s working visit to Ukraine on December 11-12 this year, where he met with the heads of the Ukrainian Police and Emergency Situations Service, he received some gifts, one of which exploded.”

The statement alleged the gift came from one of the heads of Ukrainian services.

Poland has asked Ukraine to clarify what happened and a case was “immediately opened” with the prosecutor’s office and corresponding services, it said.










						Exploding gift sends Polish police chief to hospital after Ukraine visit | CNN
					

Poland's police chief Jaroslaw Szymczyk was hospitalized with minor injuries on Wednesday after a gift that he had received in Ukraine suddenly exploded, according to a government statement




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> Holy crap...
> 
> Exploding gift sends Polish police chief to hospital after Ukraine visit​
> Poland’s police chief Jaroslaw Szymczyk was hospitalized with minor injuries on Wednesday after a gift that he had received in Ukraine suddenly exploded, according to a government statement.
> 
> “Yesterday at 7:50 a.m., an explosion occurred in a room adjacent to the office of the Police Chief,” Poland’s Interior Ministry said on Thursday.
> 
> “During the Police Chief’s working visit to Ukraine on December 11-12 this year, where he met with the heads of the Ukrainian Police and Emergency Situations Service, he received some gifts, one of which exploded.”
> 
> The statement alleged the gift came from one of the heads of Ukrainian services.
> 
> Poland has asked Ukraine to clarify what happened and a case was “immediately opened” with the prosecutor’s office and corresponding services, it said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Exploding gift sends Polish police chief to hospital after Ukraine visit | CNN
> 
> 
> Poland's police chief Jaroslaw Szymczyk was hospitalized with minor injuries on Wednesday after a gift that he had received in Ukraine suddenly exploded, according to a government statement
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com







Back to the good old days....


----------



## Kirkhill

The return of the Self Propelled Anti-Tank Gun (UAS directed)

A 100mm AT Field Gun mounted on the back of a tracked APC.









						Ukrainian troops use self-propelled anti-tank guns in the battles for Bakhmut
					

Ukrainian troops use МТ-12 modernized anti-tank guns on the chassis of a tracked armored fighting vehicle in battles on the outskirts of Bakhmut




					mil.in.ua


----------



## Colin Parkinson




----------



## MilEME09

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1603404719363342342
Link to the full interview in the thread. Bold statement


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1603404719363342342
> Link to the full interview in the thread. Bold statement




__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1603442616720363527


----------



## Kirkhill

Meanwhile back in Brussels - foreign interference by Qatar, Morocco, Russia and China

MEP immunity laws face changes after Qatar corruption scandal uncovered​So-called friendship groups, formed by MEPs as forums to discuss ties with non-EU countries, are also likely to be banned

ByJoe Barnes, BRUSSELS CORRESPONDENT15 December 2022 • 9:28pm






Francesco Giorgi and Eva Kaili have been arrested on suspicion of corruption CREDIT: STR/Eurokinissi/AFP via Getty Images

Belgian spies were investigating widespread foreign interference in EU decision-making when they uncovered the corruption and bribery scandal that has engulfed the European Parliament.
The country’s secret service broke into the house of one of the key suspects, a former Italian MEP, where they discovered €700,000 in cash, revealing an alleged plot linked to world cup host Qatar that has tarnished EU institutions.
Belgium’s State Security Service is believed to have launched a far-reaching investigation into foreign meddling in the EU in 2021.
“It was a game-changer that state security has been working on for more than a year, together with foreign intelligence services, to map suspected bribery of MEPs by various countries,” Vincent Van Quickenborne, the Belgian justice minister, told Belgian daily Le Soir.
Police have now conducted more than 20 raids, mostly in Belgium but also in Italy, with MEPs being warned immunity rules could be revisited to stop future scandals emerging in the future.


So-called friendship groups, formed by MEPs as forums to discuss ties with non-EU countries and seen as vulnerable to external influence, are also likely to be banned
Details of the covert operation emerged as Francesco Giorgi, the partner of Eva Kaili, the former European Parliament vice-president, was said to have confessed to his role in a bribery network.
Morocco and Qatar share close ties​The network, believed to have been established by Moroccan intelligence, was allegedly working to further Qatar's influence ahead of several key EU decisions on visa liberalisation and an aviation pact in 2021.
Morocco and Qatar have long shared close ties and it is believed Doha could have enlisted Rabat’s services in Brussels because of its allegedly pre-established intelligence network in the Belgian capital.
Ms Kaili, a serving Greek socialist MEP, and Mr Giorgi are being held by Belgian authorities after they were arrested on Dec 9 on suspicion of corruption.
Investigators found €900,000 in cash during raids on their home and a hotel room occupied by Ms Kaili's father, Alexandros Kailis.
Since being arrested, Ms Kaili has pleaded her innocence.
However Mr Giorgi confessed that it was his role in the corruption scandal to handle cash payments to MEPs, naming an Italian and Belgian who he said took bribes, according to Belgian newspaper Le Soir.
Belgian police earlier this week published images of more than €1.5 million in banknotes that were seized during raids related to the corruption investigation.
They found €600,000 in the house of Pier Antonio Panzeri, a former Italian MEP and head of an influential NGO.
He is alleged to have received financial handouts from Abderrahim Atmoun, a senior Moroccan diplomat, who has not commented on the claims.
Agents broke into Mr Panzeri's home in July where they discovered €700,000 in cash which was left in place, any trace of the break-in erased and a dossier unclassified and passed to Belgian judge Michel Claise.
“It was a game-changer that state security has been working on for more than a year, together with foreign intelligence services, to map suspected bribery of MEPs by various countries,” said Mr Quickenborne.
Brussels has been described previously as the “spy capital of Europe", with Belgian authorities having launched probes into suspected Russian and Chinese influence on the EU.
Russian agents with high-level Kremlin clearance have been caught operating as lowly paid diplomats and trade envoys in the Belgian capital.
While the Belgian authorities are responsible for investigating criminality within the EU institutions, the country's secret service are not allowed to look into political parties or MEPs, unless they believe foreign agencies are working in the country.
Urged EU to clean up act​The Belgian state has long feared that elements of Morocco's intelligence service – the Directorate General of Studies and Documentation – have been working to influence European politicians.
At a summit of European leaders in Brussels on Thursday Georgia Meloni, Italy's eurosceptic prime minister, urged the EU to clean up its act.
“What is important now is the reaction, which must be serious and decisive, and on which depends the credibility of the union,” she told reporters.
“Italy will ask to shed full light on what is happening.”
French president Emmanuel Macron was forced to defend his trip to Qatar to watch his country's World Cup semi-final victory over Morocco and called for the EU to hold judgment until the "full facts" of the investigation emerged.
Roberta Metsola, the European Parliament's president, told EU leaders that the institution was plagued by "foreign actors that seek to undermine us".
"My message will be that there will be no impunity, there will be no sweeping under the carpet, there will be no business as usual," she added.
“There are too many ways that decisions are taken that could be done better. Too many informal groupings that are potentially more amenable to influence. Too many organisations whose transparency of funding is not clear.”
In response to the scandal, MEPs backed a plan to block all work relating to Qatar, including visa liberalisation and aviation deals, until further notice.
Officials will establish a commitment to investigate corruption by countries outside the EU.
Rules will also be introduced to stop MEPs from falling victim to lobbying efforts by foreign powers.
Under the plan, MEPs and political parties will be banned from accepting donations from outside the EU, while foreign lobbyists and former MEPs will be made to sign up to a mandatory transparency register.
They will also be forced to declare assets at the beginning and the end of their mandates to establish whether they have profited from their time in office.









						MEP immunity laws face changes after Qatar corruption scandal uncovered
					

So-called friendship groups, formed by MEPs as forums to discuss ties with non-EU countries, are also likely to be banned




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## ModlrMike

Kirkhill said:


> Back to the good old days....


I just watched this the other day. Great movie!


----------



## Colin Parkinson

MilEME09 said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1603404719363342342
> Link to the full interview in the thread. Bold statement


Hmmm options for the CAF???


----------



## CBH99

Kirkhill said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1603442616720363527


"It is no shame to be replaced during a war."

Hmmmmmmm...I'm genuinely not an expert...but wouldn't it be?

As a General, you've spent a career in the armed services of your country.  You've attended dozens & dozens of courses, deployed numerous times, and are assumed to have the institutional knowledge to be able to command thousands of people, equipped with unique & expensive equipment, to carry out the most important tasks your country requires.  

In this case, defending its very existence.

If you are replaced because you, a general, are 'not up to the task' - I would assume there would be some shame in that?


----------



## KevinB

Inside the Army’s Newest Spy Plane
					

Already watching over Ukraine, Leidos’ ARTEMIS is part of the service’s growing fleet of contractor-owned intelligence aircraft.




					www.defenseone.com


----------



## FormerHorseGuard

CBH99 said:


> "It is no shame to be replaced during a war."
> 
> Hmmmmmmm...I'm genuinely not an expert...but wouldn't it be?
> 
> As a General, you've spent a career in the armed services of your country.  You've attended dozens & dozens of courses, deployed numerous times, and are assumed to have the institutional knowledge to be able to command thousands of people, equipped with unique & expensive equipment, to carry out the most important tasks your country requires.
> 
> In this case, defending its very existence.
> 
> If you are replaced because you, a general, are 'not up to the task' - I would assume there would be some shame in that?


we all know the soldier who is great in the garrison , but put him or her in the field they are lousy, and we all know the soldier who is great in the field and knows his or her job and the job of 2 or 3 other soldiers at the same time, but you would kick off the parade square and hide them during a change of command parade because they cannot polish boots, cannot iron the uniform etc.  

This sort of thing happens at the higher ranks too. Some Staff Officers are great with the paperwork of being a Staff Officer but could not command troops in action.  Better to boot them out of the line to a staff position then keep them in leadership positions in the field when it counts for real.

But a public firing is rough no matter the rank


----------



## daftandbarmy

CBH99 said:


> "It is no shame to be replaced during a war."
> 
> Hmmmmmmm...I'm genuinely not an expert...but wouldn't it be?
> 
> As a General, you've spent a career in the armed services of your country.  You've attended dozens & dozens of courses, deployed numerous times, and are assumed to have the institutional knowledge to be able to command thousands of people, equipped with unique & expensive equipment, to carry out the most important tasks your country requires.
> 
> In this case, defending its very existence.
> 
> If you are replaced because you, a general, are 'not up to the task' - I would assume there would be some shame in that?



This article argues that we don't 'relieve' enough Generals from duty, which is why we're failing more often than in WW2.

I tend to agree 


General Failure​Looking back on the troubled wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, many observers are content to lay blame on the Bush administration. But inept leadership by American generals was also responsible for the failure of those wars. A culture of mediocrity has taken hold within the Army’s leadership rank—if it is not uprooted, the country’s next war is unlikely to unfold any better than the last two.

During World War II, top officials _expected _some generals to fail in combat, and were prepared to remove them when they did. The personalities of these generals mattered enormously, and the Army’s chief of staff, George C. Marshall, worked hard to find the right men for the jobs at hand. When some officers did not work out, they were removed quickly—but many were given another chance, in a different job. (Ginder, Landrum, and Williams were all given second chances, for instance—and all, to varying extents, redeemed themselves.) This hard-nosed but flexible system created a strong military, not only because the most competent were allowed to rise quickly, but also because people could learn from mistakes before the results became crippling, and because officers could find the right fit for their particular abilities.









						General Failure
					

Looking back on the troubled wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, many observers are content to lay blame on the Bush administration. But inept leadership by American generals was also responsible for the failure of those wars. A culture of mediocrity has taken hold within the Army’s leadership rank—if...




					www.theatlantic.com


----------



## rmc_wannabe

I honestly think our failure in Western militaries our obession with ensuring "Breadth of experience" within our junior and senior leaders. 

Some people cannot do staff work to save their lives. Some folks are extremely bright technical thinkers, but have the charisma of oatmeal. Some of our most emotionally intelligent leaders are removed from leading Battalions to become project officers. We do not play to individual strengths and weaknesses and labour under the belief that someone can get better with a secondment outside their expertise.

If the Ukranians are replacing Generals and reassigning them, good. That means their troops on the ground are being led by their best and brightest; not by an incompetent person with too fragile an ego to know when to stop digging themselves deeper.

_starts whistling "I Am The Very Model of A Modern Major General" unironically_


----------



## Colin Parkinson

The RN ruled the waves because they dealt with incompetence and cowardice dramatically.


----------



## Kirkhill

Anything for a Hryvnia - as long as you have a phone.


----------



## Kirkhill

And when they're not scoffing sushi and wiping their mugs with wet-wipes.....

A light infantry platoon assault by sections over rolling ground.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/znkrww


----------



## Kirkhill

The Belarusian Kalinouski regiment fighting for the Ukrainians.   

Teams of 4?
Section of 12?

One simple thing that has been standing out for me is that everybody, without exception, carries a tactical dump pouch on their left side.  Such a simple thing that would have made life so much easier for 1980s soldiers.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/znfgy8


----------



## Kirkhill

Rishi is not Boris.  The Goldman Sachs accountant is as cautious as Old Man Biden.  And probably on track with Scholz and Macron.

He needs some drive.









						Rishi Sunak orders audit of Ukraine war progress, source says
					

Senior figures fear the PM may be taking an overly cautious approach as the war enters a key phase.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> Rishi is not Boris.  The Goldman Sachs accountant is as cautious as Old Man Biden.  And probably on track with Scholz and Macron.
> 
> He needs some drive.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Rishi Sunak orders audit of Ukraine war progress, source says
> 
> 
> Senior figures fear the PM may be taking an overly cautious approach as the war enters a key phase.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com



Because that worked so well before...

WTF is wrong with Bravo and Charlie company, those limp dick Mo Fos....


----------



## Remius

daftandbarmy said:


> Because that worked so well before...
> 
> WTF is wrong with Bravo and Charlie company, those limp dick Mo Fos....



I want to know what Sniper was doing in Jan…


----------



## KevinB

Remius said:


> I want to know what Sniper was doing in Jan…


HLTA


----------



## daftandbarmy

Remius said:


> I want to know what Sniper was doing in Jan…



That c*nt of an OC in Alpha Coy unfairly claimed five of his kills because they were dropped in his AO.

Yes, arguments like like that happen in the Infantry


----------



## MilEME09

This is a failure in so many levels


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1603621950533914624


----------



## Spencer100

Kirkhill said:


> Rishi is not Boris.  The Goldman Sachs accountant is as cautious as Old Man Biden.  And probably on track with Scholz and Macron.
> 
> He needs some drive.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Rishi Sunak orders audit of Ukraine war progress, source says
> 
> 
> Senior figures fear the PM may be taking an overly cautious approach as the war enters a key phase.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com


100 percent.


----------



## GR66

An interesting article from the Wavell Room website:

The Battle for Bakhmut – Wagner Trench Warfare Tactics​
Talks about the way the Wagner Group uses a steady flow of poorly trained convicts to wear down the Ukrainian lines with near constant attacks.  Also interesting was how IDF was often more effectively used to hit defensive weapon positions identified during failed attacks than for suppressive fire before/during the attacks.


----------



## ueo

GR66 said:


> An interesting article from the Wavell Room website:
> 
> The Battle for Bakhmut – Wagner Trench Warfare Tactics​
> Talks about the way the Wagner Group uses a steady flow of poorly trained convicts to wear down the Ukrainian lines with near constant attacks.  Also interesting was how IDF was often more effectively used to hit defensive weapon positions identified during failed attacks than for suppressive fire before/during the attacks.


Does IDF mean what I think? If so momma put on your steel/kevlar hat!


----------



## rmc_wannabe

ueo said:


> Does IDF mean what I think? If so momma put on your steel/kevlar hat!



Indirect Fire.


----------



## Kirkhill

On the subject of Bakhmut

One of a continuing series of propaganda pieces from Bakhmut demonstrating that Ukraine is still in control.  They have been releasing these for the last week or so.  Repeating the story of the defenders of Mariupol and Azovstal.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/zo8oyu


The curious thing is the Witch/Ghost narratives.  The Ukrainians seem to think that there enemy is a superstitious lot.

Reposting this because it aligns with the Witch theme, it appears to be really popular and it is an excuse for me to repost it.  Ukrainian witches cursing the invaders.


----------



## Kirkhill

The road off of Crimea?


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/znzotb


----------



## MilEME09

Amazon quietly helped Ukraine digitalize all government records to make sure they survive.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1604138778729537536


----------



## Kirkhill

Brit captured while defending Mariupol with the Ukrainian 36th Marine Brigade.

Neither Geneva nor Queensberry.









						Aiden Aslin on life in Russian prison: 'He said he’d stabbed me. I just went into survival mode'
					

The British-born Ukrainian marine describes beatings and execution threats after his capture by Putin's army




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				




Aiden Aslin on life in Russian prison: 'He said he’d stabbed me. I just went into survival mode'​The British-born Ukrainian marine describes beatings and execution threats after his capture by Putin's army

ByRoland Oliphant, SENIOR FOREIGN CORRESPONDENT17 December 2022 • 8:00am





The first punch in the face, delivered after he admitted to being British, was “not a bad beating”.
Compared with what followed during Aiden Aslin’s imprisonment by Russian forces, that may be an understatement.
During more than five months as a prisoner of war, Mr Aislin was beaten unconscious, stabbed, threatened with execution, and witnessed the killing of another prisoner.
But the British-born Ukrainian marine says he feels no thirst for vengeance. Instead, he is proud of his unit's role in holding back Vladimir Putin's war machine, and wants the world to know that many are still behind bars.
“The Ukrainian marines alongside the national guard and the border guards and the police in Mariupol ended up putting up a hell of a fight,” he says when asked if he would do it all again.
“Our fight helped the rest of Ukraine, because Russia was preoccupied with Mariupol so there were other places they had to lose, like pulling out from north of Kyiv because they couldn't sustain it.


“What I want is to see all our brothers and sisters who were captured brought back to their families. Pretty much the whole 36th brigade was wiped out. I’d like to see the Ukrainian government get those guys home.”
It is a strange conversation to be having in a suburban living room in Nottinghamshire. But Mr Aslin has had a very strange year.


*Mr Aslin's war began at midnight on the night of February 23 to 24, when he woke up to go on sentry duty in a muddy front-line trench.*

At the time, he was one of a handful of British fighters enlisted in Ukraine’s 36th Marine brigade, stationed in a remote and muddy trench system that marked the front line with the Russian-controlled Donetsk People’s Republic.
At first, the night was silent. Then “at 2am when I was on shift I was playing some game on my phone and monitoring the radio - in a mortar unit we always monitor the radio - and that’s when I heard the Grad artillery working.
“I was thinking to myself, ‘that’s not normal artillery, that’s like Grad rockets’. And it sounded heavy as well, like a full volley. I thought, ‘OK, I’m just going to wake the commander up and tell him what’s going on’.”
The firing was distant, but no less alarming for that. Fired in volleys of up to 40 at a time, they landed and exploded in rapid succession that sounded like a drum roll. Grads are wildly destructive and had not been used in a serious manner along the Donbas front line for years.
Two hours later “We ran outside the mortar and set the coordinates for our position. We literally shot about 10 rounds and as we came back into the bunker we came under Grads ourselves,” he said. “At that point we knew ‘this is it’.”
*When they re-emerged from the bunker to fire again, and “this time we could hear the whole front line was alive, just heavy artillery everywhere. Heavy fighting, you could just hear it, it was like something out of those films about World War One.”*
It didn’t help that it was raining heavily. The trenches filled with cloying mud and every task became more arduous. The team took off their helmets and armour. That made it easier to work the mortars and move up and down the narrow communication trench between the bunker and the gun pit, but they were soon soaked through and freezing cold.
*The Russian barrage was strong, but inaccurate and their counter-battery fire ineffective. Their Grads, to Mr Aslin's surprise, were landing behind the Ukrainian trenches, and over the following days of fighting retreat to Mariupol, the enemy never managed to pin-point the mortar squad’s position.
It was an early indication of the crudeness and unprofessionalism that characterised much of Russia's early blitzkrieg. Nonetheless, the offensive was too strong to resist.*

By March 2, a week after the invasion, the marines had been forced to retreat to Mariupol and prepare for siege.
With the Russians advancing from both the East and West, it was clear quite early on that the city would be surrounded, and what the likely outcome of the battle would be. 
But for many of the men the most difficult thing was not the prospect of death or capture, said Mr Aslin. It was watching helplessly as the enemy also closed in on other parts of Ukraine where their families were living.
Diana, Aiden’s fiancée, was still at their home in Mykolaiv, the strategic port on the river Bug that controls the road to Odessa. By the time the 36th Marines had completed their fighting retreat into Mariupol, another Russian spearhead was closing in on the family home.
“When I saw messages from her she said the Russians were only a few blocks away from where our house is, that’s when I started getting distressed. Especially when she told me the house was under shelling,” said Mr Aslin. 
“My biggest fear was if they capture Mykolaiv and she’s still there, she will most likely be captured because she's my fiancée with the military clothing and what not in the house.”

It was a ghastly feeling shared by thousands of Ukrainian servicemen that week. And it is the only time in our interview that Mr Aslin’s philosophical detachment to his ordeal seems overstretched. He takes a moment to dig out some nicotine patches before continuing his story.
After he was eventually released by his captors he checked on the course of that battle and learnt the Russians came within a kilometre of the family home before they were stopped. “God knows what they would have done.”
Back in Mariupol, the encirclement was soon sealed and as the Russians battered their way into the city with overwhelming firepower and airstrikes, the defenders were forced back into three redoubts.

The most formidable and now famous is the Azovstal steelworks - a sprawling maze of warehouses, cranes and rust covered pipes on a hill overlooking the sea in the southern part of the river. This was the stronghold of the Azov Regiment of the Ukrainian National Guard.
A second centred on the port, held by the 56th motorised brigade. The third, held by the 36th, was the Illych Iron and Steel Works.
Illych is larger than Azovstal, and a similarly defendable and labyrinth industrial landscape. But it did not have access to the sea or Azostal’s remarkably deep and almost impregenable tunnel systems. The bunkers available were only five meters below ground at best, said Mr Aslin.
The marines set up a perimeter defence but were slowly forced back in vicious urban fighting. By early April, the brigade headquarters itself was under relentless bombardment and the defenders were low on food, reduced to scavenging what they could find on the surface between short gaps between barrages.
When a Russian airstrike scored a direct hit on their main arms stockpile, the decision was made to finally mount a breakout.
In the chaos, some marines did make it to Azovstal but most of the troops at the Illych factory, including Mr Aslin, had no choice but to surrender.
On April 12, after 48 days of near continuous combat, between 700 and 1000 of the brigade's survivors laid down their arms.

Terms of captivity​Mr Aslin speaks with remarkable clarity about his first several days in captivity in April - and the world of violence that went with it.
Transferred to Donetsk, he was singled out for an interrogation which largely consisted of a two-hour beating with a police baton during which time he fell unconscious.
“He asked me if I was religious and if I wanted a “quick death or a beautiful death”. And he said “did you see what I did here? And I was like ‘no’, and he pointed to my shoulder and said he’d stabbed me. I looked and saw the wound and the amount of blood coming out. That was the point I just went into survival mode.”
Survival mode meant complying with small ritual humiliations  - like singing the Russian national anthem and cheering Vladimir Putin - and cooperating with the “bulls--t propaganda” he had correctly predicted his captors would try to use him for.
Several times a week he would be hauled out of his cell to sit in front of a camera and speak to "journalists".
He knew what they wanted, and gave it to them: repudiating his support for Ukraine and repeating standard Russian propaganda lines.
A particularly unpleasant interview was with Graham Phillips, a British blogger who devotedly supports the Russian war effort.

As usual, Mr Aslin repeated the Russian propaganda lines fed to him. But Phillips’ also falsely declared that Aslin was a “mercenary” and therefore not protected by the Geneva convention.
That was worse than just a lie. It was also the excuse later used by a kangaroo court to sentence Mr Aslin and two of his comrades - Briton Sean Pinner and Moroccan Brahim Saâdoune - to death.
Mr Aslin believes Phillips must bear at least some of the responsibility for setting up that narrative and would like to see him charged for it.
In June, the last Ukrainian redoubt in Mariupol at Azovstal finally fell and members of the Azov Regiment began to arrive at the prison. They were subjected to even more horrific beatings than the other prisoners.
Mr Aslin recalls listening to one of them dying after such a beating in a neighbouring cell. “You could hear his cell mates banging on the door to get the guard to tell them he'd stopped breathing.”
A medic came, gave the man an adrenaline shot and left. Shortly afterwards the cell mates banged on the door again, saying he still wasn’t breathing. The medic came back and pronounced him dead.
Mr Aslin’s release came unexpectedly in September, following high-level diplomatic talks partly brokered by Saudi Arabia.

He and the other foreigners were blindfolded and restrained with duct-tape, thrown into the back of a lorry and driven off to what he believed was their execution.
But after a painful, hours-long journey, he found himself at Rostov-on-Don airport being greeted by a delegation of Saudi Arabian officials and a man who his more football-savvy comrades recognised as Roman Abramovich.
In less than 48 hours, he was back in Britain.
Mr Aslin and Diana are living in Nottinghamshire. They plan to wed in April and then, when they can, move back to Ukraine, this time to try some journalism. 
He is still an enlisted marine, but has promised his future wife he will never return to combat. When they eventually return to Ukraine - it is, he says, still home - he plans to start a journalism career.
He insists, even after the beatings and the fear, that he has no regrets and harbours little anger against his captors. He would like to see Ukraine win the war.


----------



## Kirkhill

I am sure this is against the Geneva Conventions 

The Welsh inflicting Welsh Language lessons on Ukrainian kids....  It has to be a crime


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1603822475640700930


----------



## Kirkhill

Territorial Defence Battalion of 400 defending a front of 50 miles in their home turf.

Recruited as a Light Infantry Battalion with machine guns, mortars and RPGs and transported in pickup trucks.
Heavying up, while continuing to defend in place locally, with M113s, BMPs, Tanks and armed Quadcopters.
May end up being converted to a Mechanized Unit to join the assaults.



> AEROSPACE & DEFENSE
> Ukraine Deradicalized Its Extremist Troops. Now They Might Be Preparing A Counteroffensive.​David Axe
> Forbes Staff
> I write about ships, planes, tanks, drones, missiles and satellites.
> 
> The narrative the Kremlin advances to justify its brutal war on the Ukrainian people—that Ukraine is a far-right Nazi regime bent on destroying Russia—is a lie.
> 
> Yes, there really _are _far-right elements in Ukrainian society. But it’s unfair to describe Ukrainian military units—even those that orginally formed within fringe groups—as “right-wing.” Kyiv deliberately has de-radicalized these units.
> 
> 
> The 98th Azov Battalion is one of several units that has undergone this transformation. Today the battalion essentially is indistinguishable from other Ukrainian formations.
> 
> The anti-immigrant Azov Movement arguably is the most powerful of Ukraine’s far-right organizations. When Russian troops and the separatist allies first attacked eastern Ukraine back in 2014, the Azov Movement formed an armed paramilitary regiment—and resisted.
> 
> The Azov Regiment _really was_ an extremist formation. It borrowed iconography from Nazi Germany and, in addition to fighting the Russians, functioned as a base of support for its racist founder Andriy Biletsky as he successfully campaigned for a seat in parliament.
> 
> The Ukrainian army in late 2014 formally integrated the Azov Regiment. Many of Ukraine’s foreign allies, including the United States, objected to the integration. But the deradicalization process already was underway.
> 
> For starters, Biletsky was gone—off campaigning for the parliamentary seat he would hold until 2019. What’s more, the Ukrainian general staff in mid-2015 pulled the Azov Regiment from the front line for restructuring and retraining.
> 
> Massive manpower turnover alone significantly diluted the regiment’s ideology. By the time it returned to the front line in early 2019, the Azov Regiment probably was unrecognizable to its original members. It likely was even _less _recognizable three years later this February, when Russia widened its war on Ukraine.
> 
> “The Azov Regiment has been repeatedly reconstituted,” wrote Alasdair McCallum, a researcher at Monash University in Australia. “Its extremist early leaders such as the odious Andriy Biletsky are long gone, and, more recently, its fearsome, pseudo-pagan regimental emblem has been abandoned.”
> 
> By the time the Azov Regiment began spinning off successor units, the ideological poison mostly was gone. The 98th Azov Battalion stood up this spring, around the same time the original regiment was fighting nearly to the last man and woman in Mariupol, an historic city on the Ukrainian Black Sea coast that Russian forces surrounded and besieged early in the wider war.
> 
> 
> *The 98th Azov Battalion belongs to the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces,* roughly the equivalent of the U.S. Army National Guard. Where the Ukrainian army’s active formations might range across the country, attacking and defending where needed,* territorial brigades and battalions tend to stick to the same cities and oblasts where they recruit their members.*
> 
> So* the 98th Azov Battalion since this spring has been defending a 50-mile swathe of southeastern Ukraine *running along the border between Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts.
> 
> It’s an increasingly strategic region. Fully capturing Donetsk, and firming up the separatist “republic” in the oblast, is one of the Kremlin’s top goals. For Kyiv, the sector is a possible base of operations for a potential future counteroffensive toward the Black Sea coast. A counteroffensive that could turn toward the west in order to liberate the left bank of the Dnipro River.
> 
> Even leaving aside the propaganda narrative that Azov troops are Nazis and Nazis run Ukraine, the Russians badly want to destroy the 98th Azov Battalion. But the battalion, with perhaps 400 soldiers at its full strength, hasn’t just survived—it has inflicted its share of casualties on Russian and separatist forces.
> 
> *The battalion like many territorial units apparently started out as a light-infantry formation. Its heaviest weapons were its machine guns, mortars and rocket-propelled grenades. Its heaviest vehicles were pickup trucks, some fitted with recoilless rifles.
> 
> Over time, however, the 98th Azov Battalion like much of the Ukrainian army steadily has gotten heavier. It has added M-113 armored personnel carriers* that Ukraine’s NATO allies have donated. It has captured, and put to use, *Russian BMP fighting vehicles*—and regrettably painted on at least one BMP a cross similar to the German army’s own insignia. *The battalion now has tanks and bomb-dropping quadcopter drones*.
> 
> The heavier the battalion gets, the harder it can fight. In one skirmish near Velyka Novosilka, apparently in early December, the 98th Azov Battalion knocked out five Russian BMPs and a T-80 tank.
> 
> If and when Ukraine’s southern command launches an offensive from Zaporizhzhia, the 98th Azov Battalion could play an important role. At the very least, the battalion will anchor the offensive’s rear. It’s also possible the unit will join active mechanized brigades at the offensive’s vanguard.
> 
> Expect Russian propagandists to shout “Nazis!” every time the 98th Azov Battalion makes a move. Don’t believe it.











						Ukraine Deradicalized Its Extremist Troops. Now They Might Be Preparing A Counteroffensive.
					

The 98th Azon Battalion is one of several units that has undergone this transformation. Today the battalion essentially is indistinguishable from other Ukrainian formations.




					www.forbes.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Wagner troop recruited from jail on Sept 27th
Two weeks training
Told he was going to the 2nd line to defend.
First night in the line given bullets and grenades and sent into the assault
Medical kit consisted of a tourniquet and a bandage
Wounded immediately (shrapnel in the butt) and treated in a "hospital"
Anti-biotic injection and returned to the lines
By Dec 17th he had had enough and surrendered 

Of his intake of 90 (the translation calls it a platoon but likely a company) he reckons less than 20 are left - after less than 2 months in Ukraine.




__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/zo7xhl


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukrainian advance - I don't know the date or location.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1603822939014561813


----------



## WLSC

Kirkhill said:


> From Reddit
> 
> Ukrainian designed and built MTLB -  11.9 tonnes (about the same weight as the old M113 and Grizzly) - designed for marginal terrain
> 
> So this is the best available vehicle doing its best in the current environment.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/zlp0p2
> 
> Have to wonder how well the 3rd and 10th vehicles would manage following in the same tracks.
> 
> Another reason why there are so few vehicle kills.  The Russians can't get the vehicles they have to the fight.



And of course, we scrapped the BV’s (Not saying ours were at their peak configuration) because they were deemed not useful anymore…


----------



## CBH99

WLSC said:


> And of course, we scrapped the BV’s (Not saying ours were at their peak configuration) because they were deemed not useful anymore…


I thought they were still in service…no?  (If not - any talk or plans to replace the BV-206 vehicles?)

Looking at the terrain there, that type of vehicle _must_ still have a ton of useful roles to fill.


----------



## Skysix

WLSC said:


> And of course, we scrapped the BV’s (Not saying ours were at their peak configuration) because they were deemed not useful anymore…


Of course we did 🤦🤬

Another decision by someone whose idea of the Canadian North is Barrie, and who thinks muskeg is home brew going bad left over from the last bush party


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> Rishi is not Boris.  The Goldman Sachs accountant is as cautious as Old Man Biden.  And probably on track with Scholz and Macron.
> 
> He needs some drive.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Rishi Sunak orders audit of Ukraine war progress, source says
> 
> 
> Senior figures fear the PM may be taking an overly cautious approach as the war enters a key phase.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com



Is this the UK's CDS quiet response?  The Armed Forces will not be looking at Balance Sheets?


Responding to nation's needs 'fundamental' of what military does, Armed Forces chief says

0:27
The head of the Armed Forces has said responding to the need of the nation is "a fundamental of what we do". It comes as the military covers striking workers.






						News
					






					www.forces.net


----------



## Spencer100

Sunak has different bosses than than the last one


----------



## ueo

rmc_wannabe said:


> Indirect Fire.


Phew, never seen it in that context however mightily releived


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Ukraine: Russia to deploy musicians to front to boost morale
					

The new "front-line creative brigade" will consist of volunteer musicians and mobilised recruits.



					www.bbc.com
				





Sucks to be the bugler on the battlefield ......


----------



## Good2Golf

…or Le capitain…


----------



## daftandbarmy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Ukraine: Russia to deploy musicians to front to boost morale
> 
> 
> The new "front-line creative brigade" will consist of volunteer musicians and mobilised recruits.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sucks to be the bugler on the battlefield ......



Or, if you're a piper, it 'blows'


----------



## Skysix

Now that we have seen the absolutly massive increase in lethality of ordanance carrying and capability of ISR drones, given their relatively insignificant cost and widespread availability, what is being done to fast track the range and capability of cost effective systems to mitigate this threat?

And how long until the civil drone market /operators becomes heavily regulated as an anti-terrorism measure?

Not that I am opposed to privately owned assault drones - every 8 year old should be allowed to own one 😜. JK. There is no reasonable reason for a law abiding person to need or operate any assault drone equipped with a camera or capable of carrying a payload greater than 1oz (or whatever the weight of a blasting cap is)😆.

On a more realistic note however, the use of any form of RC aircraft / drone / UAV that threatens public safety (shadowing EMS and police helicopters), invades privacy (imaging of private property or residences without prior explicit permission), or violates any TC/FAA regulation (over 400' AGL, in controlled airspace, out of operator line of sight etc) should be aggressively investigated and punished. And an open "hunting season" declared to allow their downing by private citizens who feel threatened (if ruled an unjustifiable shootdown, the shooter is liable for replacement. If justified, the owner for any collateral damages)

Just some grumpy 6 am thoughts after being awoken by sound of same.


----------



## CBH99

I can say here in Edmonton, with the exception of having an EPS quadcopter drone assist with a SAR we did in the summer (inside city limits, in the river valley) I haven’t seen a single drone flying around anywhere.  Like ever.


----------



## daftandbarmy

I liked the description of trenches as not something that will save the Russians, but nicely line them up so that the drones and other precision munitions can more efficiently wipe them out


----------



## MilEME09

CBH99 said:


> I can say here in Edmonton, with the exception of having an EPS quadcopter drone assist with a SAR we did in the summer (inside city limits, in the river valley) I haven’t seen a single drone flying around anywhere.  Like ever.


CAF is behind the game, recce units have been shown off using them, and the arty, but that's about it, meanwhile in Ukraine every section seems to have a drone


----------



## Skysix

MilEME09 said:


> CAF is behind the game, recce units have been shown off using them, and the arty, but that's about it, meanwhile in Ukraine every section seems to have a drone


Ideally four I believe as operational life is sbout 3-5 flights


----------



## NavyShooter

This touches on the point of what type of drone we're talking about.

At the lowest level (Platoon or Section level) small drones (ie DJI Mavic Mini) should be considered effectively as ammunition - expendable assets.

In my experience with Drones in training areas, we got 2 flights out of one.


----------



## Skysix

NavyShooter said:


> This touches on the point of what type of drone we're talking about.
> 
> At the lowest level (Platoon or Section level) small drones (ie DJI Mavic Mini) should be considered effectively as ammunition - expendable assets.
> 
> In my experience with Drones in training areas, we got 2 flights out of one.


Yep. 3 types. Small: line of sight observation, Medium: VR controlled payload drop capability with NV or thermal cameras. Large: Autonomous AI "launch and forget" or recoverable UAV capable of high altitude and loitering with ISR and/or kinetic capabilities.

At the grunt level I was referring to small recce drones with platoon level a dedicated 1/2 section or so (2 x pilot, 2 x security) with medium offensive and ISR drones.

Infantry life will never be the same in near peer conflicts. Not even bunkers are safe.


----------



## McG

Most western armies trade space to preserve lives of their combat forces and give time to prepare for decisive operations.  Russia still trades the lives of its combat forces to preserve space and buy time.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1604711619635945472


----------



## MilEME09

Look what's finally been spotted in Ukraine, about time


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1604785498911899649


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> Look what's finally been spotted in Ukraine, about time
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1604785498911899649



I'll be fascinated to get the soldier reports on that behemoth and find out where and how the Ukrainians use it.


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> Yep. 3 types. Small: line of sight observation, Medium: VR controlled payload drop capability with NV or thermal cameras. Large: Autonomous AI "launch and forget" or recoverable UAV capable of high altitude and loitering with ISR and/or kinetic capabilities.
> 
> At the grunt level I was referring to small recce drones with platoon level a dedicated 1/2 section or so (2 x pilot, 2 x security) with medium offensive and ISR drones.
> 
> Infantry life will never be the same in near peer conflicts. Not even bunkers are safe.



Here's a section/platoon system that has been used by the Brits and the USMC

Defendtex 40 - literally a 40mm UAS that can be launched by hand or from a grenade launcher, with or without explosive package.   It can be recovered and reused if it isn't sacrificed to the mission.  It can also operate in swarms.



> To make Drone 40 work at the small size and desired price point, its makers had to lean on the commercial drone market. Existing versions, Reddy says,* cost less than a $1,000 apiece, with a goal of getting the cost down to around $500.*




Video at this link.


			https://www.defendtex.com/wp-content/uploads/D40_Launch_Swarming_Email2_1.mp4
		







						Air | DEFENDTEX
					






					www.defendtex.com
				











						Marines Train With Handheld Swarming Drones That Can Also Be Fired From 40mm Grenade Launchers
					

Images shared online show Marines conducting training exercises with the Drone40, a tiny quadcopter that can carry a wide variety of payloads.




					www.thedrive.com
				











						British Army using small grenade-launched drone in Mali
					

The British Army has deployed to Mali with the small DefendTex Drone40 that can be launched from 40mm grenade launchers and is capable of being used as part of a swarm.




					www.army-technology.com
				











						A drone with a can-doom attitude
					

This canister-shaped 40mm loitering munition can be hand-tossed or fired from a grenade launcher, and is built on a highly adaptable platform.




					www.c4isrnet.com


----------



## GK .Dundas

Kirkhill said:


> I'll be fascinated to get the soldier reports on that behemoth and find out where and how the Ukrainians use it.


Omigawd it's bigger then my first house !


----------



## Kirkhill

GK .Dundas said:


> Omigawd it's bigger then my first house !


George Lucas must have been consulted...


----------



## Kirkhill

Hard to know if these things are connected.  
Harder still to know of Sunak's level of commitment.  Not saying this commitment is inconsequential but it does feel a bit like taking the foot off the gas.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/zpp974









						Britain to supply Ukraine with hundreds of thousands of artillery ammunition in 2023
					

Great Britain will deliver hundreds of thousands of artillery ammunition to Ukraine next year




					mil.in.ua
				





			https://www.defendtex.com/wp-content/uploads/D40_Launch_Swarming_Email2_1.mp4


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> Hard to know if these things are connected.
> Harder still to know of Sunak's level of commitment.  Not saying this commitment is inconsequential but it does feel a bit like taking the foot off the gas.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/zpp974
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Britain to supply Ukraine with hundreds of thousands of artillery ammunition in 2023
> 
> 
> Great Britain will deliver hundreds of thousands of artillery ammunition to Ukraine next year
> 
> 
> 
> 
> mil.in.ua
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.defendtex.com/wp-content/uploads/D40_Launch_Swarming_Email2_1.mp4


*It is reported that Rishi Sunak will call on leaders at JEF to sustain or exceed 2022 levels of support for Ukraine in 2023 through ongoing lethal aid, economic resilience and political backing.*

I don't see Britain slowing down - regardless of the PM's feelings, as the Brit's seem to be very Nationally motivated.


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> *It is reported that Rishi Sunak will call on leaders at JEF to sustain or exceed 2022 levels of support for Ukraine in 2023 through ongoing lethal aid, economic resilience and political backing.*
> 
> I don't see Britain slowing down - regardless of the PM's feelings, as the Brit's seem to be very Nationally motivated.



And motivated to find an international leadership role outside of their former EU strait jacket


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> *It is reported that Rishi Sunak will call on leaders at JEF to sustain or exceed 2022 levels of support for Ukraine in 2023 through ongoing lethal aid, economic resilience and political backing.*
> 
> I don't see Britain slowing down - regardless of the PM's feelings, as the Brit's seem to be very Nationally motivated.





daftandbarmy said:


> And motivated to find an international leadership role outside of their former EU strait jacket



I hope you are both right.


----------



## Skysix

Given the demonstrated inability to defend a power grid from military (as opposed to terrorist) attack, how do the industrialsed countries 'harden' it? Not so much the distribution network -  relatively easy to repair - but the transformers and generation sites.

Thoughts (from an amateur, please feel more than free to add expert commentary/ideas):

Build underground (5m or so) hardened transformer rooms, fully rigged to be hooked into the distribution network but disconnected and internet isolated. Only hook in after topside transformers (located some distance away - like 1k) have been destroyed and lines repaired. Multi year project, as large high voltage transformers have a long lead time.

Distributed mid range (10k ish) AA/AD sites in industrial "warehouses" with retractable roofs around all significant generation facilities. CIWS on site and point defense anti-missile sites in apparantly mundane structures nearby.

All of the above constructed without huge public contracts and visibility unless hidden within innocent commercial civilian construction sites. (At least the required infrastructure to support the kinetic equipment in place and ready to recieve weapons when needed).

Probably of most use in the former Warsaw pact states, countries that used to be part of the USSR and Finland where critical infrastructure nodes and defenses are already known.









						What’s up with the power? How Russia destroys energy infrastructure
					

Russia is systematically shelling electrical substations throughout Ukraine. We tried to analyze where Russian missiles are most often aimed at …




					texty.org.ua


----------



## Furniture

GK .Dundas said:


> Omigawd it's bigger then my first house !


It's bigger than my current apartment in Ottawa!


----------



## lenaitch

Skysix said:


> Given the demonstrated inability to defend a power grid from military (as opposed to terrorist) attack, how do the industrialsed countries 'harden' it? Not so much the distribution network -  relatively easy to repair - but the transformers and generation sites.
> 
> Thoughts (from an amateur, please feel more than free to add expert commentary/ideas):
> 
> Build underground (5m or so) hardened transformer rooms, fully rigged to be hooked into the distribution network but disconnected and internet isolated. Only hook in after topside transformers (located some distance away - like 1k) have been destroyed and lines repaired. Multi year project, as large high voltage transformers have a long lead time.
> 
> Distributed mid range (10k ish) AA/AD sites in industrial "warehouses" with retractable roofs around all significant generation facilities. CIWS on site and point defense anti-missile sites in apparantly mundane structures nearby.
> 
> All of the above constructed without huge public contracts and visibility unless hidden within innocent commercial civilian construction sites. (At least the required infrastructure to support the kinetic equipment in place and ready to recieve weapons when needed).
> 
> Probably of most use in the former Warsaw pact states, countries that used to be part of the USSR and Finland where critical infrastructure nodes and defenses are already known.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What’s up with the power? How Russia destroys energy infrastructure
> 
> 
> Russia is systematically shelling electrical substations throughout Ukraine. We tried to analyze where Russian missiles are most often aimed at …
> 
> 
> 
> 
> texty.org.ua


You mean over there or over here?  I'm not sure I would consider 5m/~15' underground vaults as 'hardened' in wartime terms.  If you're going to go to the trouble and expense of having underground transformer vaults, you might as well have them online as opposed to standby.

Probably the most practical way to make a power grid more robust is have more points of source (generation,  interconnection, etc.), more (step-down) transformer sites and lots of redundant inter-connection, so that taking out one impacts a smaller area and can be more easily rectified.  That and distributed stockpiles of cable, poles/tower parts, transformers and other grid components.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Ukrainian helicopter shot down from two different viewpoints


----------



## daftandbarmy

Skysix said:


> Given the demonstrated inability to defend a power grid from military (as opposed to terrorist) attack, how do the industrialsed countries 'harden' it? Not so much the distribution network -  relatively easy to repair - but the transformers and generation sites.
> 
> Thoughts (from an amateur, please feel more than free to add expert commentary/ideas):
> 
> Build underground (5m or so) hardened transformer rooms, fully rigged to be hooked into the distribution network but disconnected and internet isolated. Only hook in after topside transformers (located some distance away - like 1k) have been destroyed and lines repaired. Multi year project, as large high voltage transformers have a long lead time.
> 
> Distributed mid range (10k ish) AA/AD sites in industrial "warehouses" with retractable roofs around all significant generation facilities. CIWS on site and point defense anti-missile sites in apparantly mundane structures nearby.
> 
> All of the above constructed without huge public contracts and visibility unless hidden within innocent commercial civilian construction sites. (At least the required infrastructure to support the kinetic equipment in place and ready to recieve weapons when needed).
> 
> Probably of most use in the former Warsaw pact states, countries that used to be part of the USSR and Finland where critical infrastructure nodes and defenses are already known.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What’s up with the power? How Russia destroys energy infrastructure
> 
> 
> Russia is systematically shelling electrical substations throughout Ukraine. We tried to analyze where Russian missiles are most often aimed at …
> 
> 
> 
> 
> texty.org.ua



Diplomacy is usually the best protection, followed by the ability to strike the locations of those launching attacks on your infrastructure.

The Israelis have take steps to harden some of their infrastructure. I recall doing a tour of the Sea of Galilee and the guide pointed to a mountain on the Israeli side mentioning that alot of their national water needs are served by a pump buried in the mountain, and drawing from the sea below, to protect it against indirect fire... like nuclear attack.

Having said that, recently they took a hit from Iranian hackers, sparking a cyber war:


In April 2020 hackers infiltrated the systems of an Israeli water-pumping station and tampered with equipment. Individual pumps started malfunctioning as officials scrambled to keep water supplies flowing for millions of people. After the incident, which has been linked to Iran, officials said the damage could have been much worse: They suspect the attack was intended to poison water supplies by increasing chlorine levels. Weeks later, hackers targeted an Iranian port in an apparent act of retaliation.

“This was the first time that a nation responded immediately through the cyber medium for a cyberattack,” says Lotem Finkelstein, director of threat intelligence and research at Israeli cybersecurity company Check Point. The attacks, he says, marked the start of a new wave of hacking against infrastructure in the region, which has disrupted millions of lives.









						A Hacking Spree Against Iran Spills Out Into the Physical World
					

Hackers have targeted the country's trains, gas stations, and airline infrastructure, as cyber conflict with Israel continues to escalate.




					www.wired.co.uk


----------



## WLSC

Part deux with that Brits.  A lot of old stuff we used to know.


----------



## daftandbarmy

WLSC said:


> Part deux with that Brits.  A lot of old stuff we used to know.



Hot water bottle... golden.

I use a full thermos at the bottom of my sleeping bag... works well at 30 below!


----------



## Czech_pivo

Skysix said:


> Given the demonstrated inability to defend a power grid from military (as opposed to terrorist) attack, how do the industrialsed countries 'harden' it? Not so much the distribution network -  relatively easy to repair - but the transformers and generation sites.
> 
> Thoughts (from an amateur, please feel more than free to add expert commentary/ideas):
> 
> Build underground (5m or so) hardened transformer rooms, fully rigged to be hooked into the distribution network but disconnected and internet isolated. Only hook in after topside transformers (located some distance away - like 1k) have been destroyed and lines repaired. Multi year project, as large high voltage transformers have a long lead time.
> 
> Distributed mid range (10k ish) AA/AD sites in industrial "warehouses" with retractable roofs around all significant generation facilities. CIWS on site and point defense anti-missile sites in apparantly mundane structures nearby.
> 
> All of the above constructed without huge public contracts and visibility unless hidden within innocent commercial civilian construction sites. (At least the required infrastructure to support the kinetic equipment in place and ready to recieve weapons when needed).
> 
> Probably of most use in the former Warsaw pact states, countries that used to be part of the USSR and Finland where critical infrastructure nodes and defenses are already known.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What’s up with the power? How Russia destroys energy infrastructure
> 
> 
> Russia is systematically shelling electrical substations throughout Ukraine. We tried to analyze where Russian missiles are most often aimed at …
> 
> 
> 
> 
> texty.org.ua


I was working right next door in Scotiaplaza when this thing blew 5yrs ago.  The building was NOT up and running 6 months later.



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/rbc-hydro-vault-fire-toronto-1.4107352


----------



## Skysix

Czech_pivo said:


> I was working right next door in Scotiaplaza when this thing blew 5yrs ago.  The building was NOT up and running 6 months later.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/rbc-hydro-vault-fire-toronto-1.4107352


Toxic residues from fire including PCB's nfrom.old transformers throughout s complex office building. Not surprised. Also not the same as an isolated modern transformer in a bespoke structure.


----------



## Spencer100

Czech_pivo said:


> I was working right next door in Scotiaplaza when this thing blew 5yrs ago.  The building was NOT up and running 6 months later.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/rbc-hydro-vault-fire-toronto-1.4107352


The thing is a war going on will also focus the mind.  Are you going to be worrying about a couple of ounces of PCB's when you need the power on for the AA battery on roof?   You don't really have the health and safety committee up and running for the job site if the PPE you put on first is your plate carrier and your helmet is stamped with it's STANAG rating not its UL or CSA approval.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Russian blogger on the state of the Russian Armed Forces









						Russian volunteer Murz on why Russia is not ready to defend Ukrainian winter offensive • WarTranslated
					

Below is a translation of a long blog post by the Russian volunteer Murz whom we’ve covered extensively during the past several months. In this post, Murz, who has been previously critical of the way the Russian Army is conducting the “special operation”, goes over the potential of a Ukrainian...




					wartranslated.com


----------



## KevinB

Congress boosts Pentagon budget, Ukraine spending in omnibus
					

The Pentagon will receive a $69.3 billion budget increase over FY 22 on top of another $27.9 in emergency funding to support Ukraine.




					www.defensenews.com


----------



## MilEME09

For you Carl G lovers, here's a video of some 441 HE rounds going down range.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1605121807660433409


----------



## Maxman1

Interesting reloading technique.


----------



## SeaKingTacco

Maxman1 said:


> Interesting reloading technique.


I was going to say the same thing. Not how I was taught to reload…


----------



## daftandbarmy

SeaKingTacco said:


> I was going to say the same thing. Not how I was taught to reload…



Which probably speaks to the fact that two man dependent systems have been made obsolete by NLAW and Javelin.


----------



## McG

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1605653461340721162Russia providing everything asked for except time to train or to come home for Christmas.


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> Which probably speaks to the fact that two man dependent systems have been made obsolete by NLAW and Javelin.



I'm pretty sure I saw some SAAB bumf talking up the enhanced safety features of the M4 version permitting soldiers to carry a loaded CG84 with them exactly the same way they can carry an AT4 or an NLAW.  It becomes a one man weapon if necessary but can be served quicker (for 6 rounds) with the 2 man team.  As well as a weapon that can be used from confined spaces.

And with the Fire Control Device (FCD 558)  and programmable ammunition (HE 448) that makes the single shot on board effective against a range of targets.









						Accuracy meets simplicity
					

A new high-explosive round and a sophisticated fire control device have made our Carl-Gustaf® system more effective than ever, while maintaining the ease of use that gunners love.




					www.saab.com
				












						Saab Receives Order from Sweden for Carl-Gustaf Ammunition
					

Saab has received an order from the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) for deliveries of ammunition for the recoilless Carl-Gustaf® rifle. The order value is approximately SEK 800 million and deliveries will take place 2023-2025.




					www.saab.com
				











						Norwegian Armed Forces Place Order for Programmable Carl-Gustaf Round
					

Saab has received an order from the Norwegian Armed Forces for deliveries of ammunition for the recoilless Carl-Gustaf® rifle.




					www.saab.com
				










> The new round takes accuracy, range and effect to the next level. Replacing the mechanical fuze with a small electro-mechanical one has helped reduce weight, meaning the round leaves the barrel with higher muzzle velocity, increasing both accuracy, engagement time, and range. While the HE 441 was accurate out to roughly 1300 metres, the HE 448 is able to engage targets beyond 1500 metres.
> 
> At the same time, the fragmentation of the round is radically different from the HE 441. While its predecessor contained 800 steel balls, the HE 448 contains some 4000 tungsten pellets. The result is more fragments, greater dispersal and an increased effectiveness, even in situations where the enemy is wearing body armour.




Which leaves only one question.   Can it reliably take out a Corvette?










						The Day Marines Shot a Warship with Anti-Tank Rockets - Military History - Military Matters
					

A summary of the Argentine invasion of South Georgia and the Royal Marines defence - including engaging a frigate with anti-tank weapons!




					militarymatters.online


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> I'm pretty sure I saw some SAAB bumf talking up the enhanced safety features of the M4 version permitting soldiers to carry a loaded CG84 with them exactly the same way they can carry an AT4 or an NLAW.  It becomes a one man weapon if necessary but can be served quicker (for 6 rounds) with the 2 man team.  As well as a weapon that can be used from confined spaces.


Yes the M4 does have a safety that allows for round loaded carry.   
  Confined space usages depends on the load.  



Kirkhill said:


> And with the Fire Control Device (FCD 558)  and programmable ammunition (HE 448) that makes the single shot on board effective against a range of targets.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Accuracy meets simplicity
> 
> 
> A new high-explosive round and a sophisticated fire control device have made our Carl-Gustaf® system more effective than ever, while maintaining the ease of use that gunners love.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.saab.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Saab Receives Order from Sweden for Carl-Gustaf Ammunition
> 
> 
> Saab has received an order from the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) for deliveries of ammunition for the recoilless Carl-Gustaf® rifle. The order value is approximately SEK 800 million and deliveries will take place 2023-2025.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.saab.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Norwegian Armed Forces Place Order for Programmable Carl-Gustaf Round
> 
> 
> Saab has received an order from the Norwegian Armed Forces for deliveries of ammunition for the recoilless Carl-Gustaf® rifle.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.saab.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Which leaves only one question.   Can it reliably take out a Corvette?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Day Marines Shot a Warship with Anti-Tank Rockets - Military History - Military Matters
> 
> 
> A summary of the Argentine invasion of South Georgia and the Royal Marines defence - including engaging a frigate with anti-tank weapons!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> militarymatters.online


You need to take some of the industry marketing materials at less face value.


----------



## KevinB

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/12/21/world/volodymyr-zelensky-russia-ukraine-news?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20221222&instance_id=80818&nl=from-the-times&regi_id=112483158&segment_id=120516&te=1&user_id=8d7d6aec56e938bb0d8c632c51238996&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> Yes the M4 does have a safety that allows for round loaded carry.
> Confined space usages depends on the load.
> 
> 
> You need to take some of the industry marketing materials at less face value.



As someone who has made a career working with industry marketing materials I am well aware of their limitations.  

Having said that I am happy to work in the universe of the possible even if I am only getting a 70% solution.  We'll work on it once it is delivered.


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> As someone who has made a career working with industry marketing materials I am well aware of their limitations.
> 
> Having said that I am happy to work in the universe of the possible even if I am only getting a 70% solution.  We'll work on it once it is delivered.


Canada doesn’t have enough soldiers to go for suboptimal solutions.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> Canada doesn’t have enough soldiers to go for suboptimal solutions.



You mean like relying on 7.62 and 25mm as your lethal solutions?  Absent SAMs, ATGMs, Mines, Shells, AGM/ASMs, Attack Helicopters....

We have nothing but suboptimal solutions.

We can't afford American solutions.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

daftandbarmy said:


> Which probably speaks to the fact that two man dependent systems have been made obsolete by NLAW and Javelin.


But who will take the video?


----------



## MilEME09

A story from the Norman Brigade, which is a group of Canadian, American and British volunteers.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1605796439422107649


----------



## Spencer100

Colin Parkinson said:


> But who will take the video?


I think guy in video has now fired more live rounds than a whole Canadian platoon all with 20 years in. Lol.


----------



## brihard

Some impressive work by the New York Times investigating the Bucha massacre and attributing it to a specific unit and CO:









						Caught on Camera, Traced by Phone: The Russian Military Unit That Killed Dozens in Bucha
					

Exclusive evidence obtained in a monthslong investigation identifies the Russian regiment — and commander — behind one of the worst atrocities in Ukraine.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> You mean like relying on 7.62 and 25mm as your lethal solutions?  Absent SAMs, ATGMs, Mines, Shells, AGM/ASMs, Attack Helicopters....
> 
> We have nothing but suboptimal solutions.
> 
> We can't afford American solutions.


You can, but simply chose not to.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> You can, but simply chose not to.


That's right.

You often confuse the Country of Canada with its Government and its Institutions.

Canada, the country, can afford to defend itself.  The Canadian Armed Forces, as an institution of the Government of Canada, can not.

And Canadians keep voting in Governments that keep it that way.

So again I say:  we can't.


----------



## Navy_Pete

In a tangential note, looks like the Russian aircraft carrier the Admiral Kuznetzov caught fire short after finally getting out of dry dock after 4 years; they suck at boating too.

This one is funny as we shadowed it heading to Syria around 2016 and you could visually track it over the horizon because of the dirty fuel they use (matzuv) that is really heavy bunker oil that had a multi-mile high smoke stack.


Russia’s sole aircraft carrier catches fire


----------



## Czech_pivo

Navy_Pete said:


> In a tangential note, looks like the Russian aircraft carrier the Admiral Kuznetzov caught fire short after finally getting out of dry dock after 4 years; they suck at boating too.
> 
> This one is funny as we shadowed it heading to Syria around 2016 and you could visually track it over the horizon because of the dirty fuel they use (matzuv) that is really heavy bunker oil that had a multi-mile high smoke stack.
> 
> 
> Russia’s sole aircraft carrier catches fire


For those with some AF experience, if this ship has been in dry dock since 2017 and won't be operational until 2024/25.  It is safe to say that won't have any pilots left with any reasonable aircraft carrier landing experience and they'll have to completely re-build that entire skill set over from scratch?


----------



## Spencer100

Navy_Pete said:


> In a tangential note, looks like the Russian aircraft carrier the Admiral Kuznetzov caught fire short after finally getting out of dry dock after 4 years; they suck at boating too.
> 
> This one is funny as we shadowed it heading to Syria around 2016 and you could visually track it over the horizon because of the dirty fuel they use (matzuv) that is really heavy bunker oil that had a multi-mile high smoke stack.
> 
> 
> Russia’s sole aircraft carrier catches fire


Wow I'm amazed it floated out of the drydock!  

But then I have a feeling the drydock and program manager may feel like like this project Commander. 






Motivation posters are not required.


----------



## Dana381

Navy_Pete said:


> In a tangential note, looks like the Russian aircraft carrier the Admiral Kuznetzov caught fire short after finally getting out of dry dock after 4 years; they suck at boating too.
> 
> This one is funny as we shadowed it heading to Syria around 2016 and you could visually track it over the horizon because of the dirty fuel they use (matzuv) that is really heavy bunker oil that had a multi-mile high smoke stack.
> 
> 
> Russia’s sole aircraft carrier catches fire


It caught fire again as it was leaving dry dock. I think it may be time to start using a different contractor for the refit. ISI is getting jealous


----------



## MilEME09

I think these guys forgot their safety briefing, ingenious but this seems Hella dangerous 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1605813692687605760


----------



## GK .Dundas

Dana381 said:


> It caught fire again as it was leaving dry dock. I think it may be time to start using a different contractor for the refit. ISI is getting jealous


Isn't it tradition for Russian large warships to have an onboard fire upon entering and leaving refit. ?


----------



## WLSC

Part trois.  Bring back the the entrenching tool!


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> I think these guys forgot their safety briefing, ingenious but this seems Hella dangerous
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1605813692687605760



The Ukrainians, like the Muslims, are very religious.  Like proper gunners everywhere they put their faith in St Barbara..... 

Mad, Methodist or Married.


----------



## Skysix

WLSC said:


> Part trois.  Bring back the the entrenching tool!


The quintessential squaddy


----------



## Skysix

WW2 Commonwealth issue. Complete with attachable Lee Enfield No4 Mk1 spike bayonet mine detection probe... And I dare say more effective in hard ground than the (current?) Vietnam issue folding shovel.
Pics from the interwebs. My dad's (now mine) is not as pretty - but likely sharper (to cut roots) and still well used/oiled.


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> I think these guys forgot their safety briefing, ingenious but this seems Hella dangerous
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1605813692687605760


What's that old phase - "Necessity is the Mother of all inventions"


----------



## WLSC

Skysix said:


> View attachment 75586
> WW2 Commonwealth issue. Complete with attachable Lee Enfield No4 Mk1 spike bayonet mine detection probe... And I dare say more effective in hard ground than the (current?) Vietnam issue folding shovel.View attachment 75587
> Pics from the interwebs. My dad's (now mine) is not as pretty - but likely sharper (to cut roots) and still well used/oiled.



Nothing is issued anymore.  Why did when we have ballistic seacans?


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> View attachment 75586
> WW2 Commonwealth issue. Complete with attachable Lee Enfield No4 Mk1 spike bayonet mine detection probe... And I dare say more effective in hard ground than the (current?) Vietnam issue folding shovel.View attachment 75587
> Pics from the interwebs. My dad's (now mine) is not as pretty - but likely sharper (to cut roots) and still well used/oiled.



Seen like that it seems to display a poleaxe heritage.   Lots of sharp and pointy bits for the close combat fight.


----------



## AmmoTech90

MilEME09 said:


> I think these guys forgot their safety briefing, ingenious but this seems Hella dangerous


It's fine. Didn't you see them putting safety cap back over the primer at the end?

In all seriousness, proper tools would make it easier, but they aren't exposing any explosives. Some Soviet mortars come unprimed so the primer removal is not unusual in that world, once again, proper tools make it easier. Mortars from RPGs are available both improvised as seen and from the manufacturer.

Maybe we can train our new stokers, or whatever they're named up on machining by making a small RPG mod tool kit...


----------



## Kirkhill

Great article from Forbes on the fighting in Bakhmut

50,000 Wagnerians, including 40,000 prisoners (low quality light infantry)
vs
24,000 Ukrainian troops organized in 8 Heavy Brigades 



> -  the 60th and 71st Infantry Brigades, the 24th, 57th and 58th Mechanized Brigades, the 4th Tank Brigade, the 46th Air Mobile Brigade, the 128th Mountain Brigade and others—represent the best of Kyiv’s active army





> AEROSPACE & DEFENSE
> Bakhmut Is ‘Soaked In Blood’ As Eight Of Ukraine’s Best Brigades Battle 40,000 Former Russian Prisoners​David Axe
> Forbes Staff
> I write about ships, planes, tanks, drones, missiles and satellites.
> New! Follow this author to stay notified about their latest stories. Got it!
> Follow
> 6
> Dec 22, 2022,05:15pm EST
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Volodymyr Zelensky in Bakhmut.
> OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE
> Russian mercenary firm The Wagner Group since this summer has been trying, and so far failing, to capture the town of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region.
> 
> 
> 
> For Wagner, Bakhmut is a symbol. In seizing the ruins of the lifeless town, which lies 10 miles southwest of Russian-occupied Severodonetsk—one of Donbas’s bigger cities—Wagner apparently aims to establish itself as an alternative to the regular Russian army.
> 
> But at least eight of the Ukrainian army’s heaviest brigades keep interrupting Wagner’s plan—and making the battle for Bakhmut a statement about Wagner’s _weakness _rather than its _strength_.
> 
> “The Russian military and mercenaries have been attacking Bakhmut nonstop since May,” Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said Wednesday. “They have been attacking it day and night, but Bakhmut stands.”
> 
> *The Ukrainian brigades in and around Bakhmut—the 60th and 71st Infantry Brigades, the 24th, 57th and 58th Mechanized Brigades, the 4th Tank Brigade, the 46th Air Mobile Brigade, the 128th Mountain Brigade and others—represent the best of Kyiv’s active army, which in 10 months of hard fighting has bulked up with new and heavier weapons while also translating extensive battlefield experience into better tactics and small-unit leadership.
> Each brigade might have 3,000 troops and a hundred or more armored vehicles plus artillery and drones.*
> The battle for Bakhmut is ongoing. Wagner attacked—again—last week. The Ukrainian counterattacked—again—_this _week. By Wednesday the front lines were stable enough for Zelensky to drop into Bakhmut for a quick visit with the local garrison. A day later, Zelensky was _en route_ to Washington, D.C. to address the U.S. Congress.
> 
> 
> “Last year, 70,000 people lived here in Bakhmut, in this city, and now only few civilians stay,” Zelensky told lawmakers from the U.S. House and Senate, minus a few dozen pro-Russia Republicans who declined to attend the Ukrainian president’s speech.
> 
> “Every inch of that land is soaked in blood; roaring guns sound every hour,” Zelensky added. “Trenches in the Donbas change hands several times a day in fierce combat, and even hand-fighting. But the Ukrainian Donbas stands.”
> There’s no sign Wagner’s about to give up. But extreme losses—not only in infantry, but also among the mercenary company’s attack pilots—have diminished Wagner’s chances.
> After expending its initial contingent of skilled fighters in its first few attempts to capture Bakhmut, the company this fall began recruiting thousands of convicts from Russian prisons—and shoving them toward Bakhmut without adequate training or equipment. According to Pentagon spokesman John Kirby, *Wagner might have as many as 50,000 fighters in Ukraine, 40,000 of whom are former prisoners.*
> 
> Ironically, the closer Wagner gets to downtown Bakhmut, the more dire its predicament becomes. *“Intense combat has occurred in the Bakhmut sector since June 2022, but the front lines have primarily been in open country around the eastern approaches to the town,” *the U.K. Defense Ministry explained.






> *“The war has seen little protracted, large-scale fighting in built-up areas since the Russian advances into Lysychansk and Severodonetsk in July 2022,” the ministry added.*





> *Urban combat requires “highly trained infantry with excellent junior-level leadership,”* the ministry stated. Ukraine’s brigades have highly-trained infantry, thanks in part to NATO instructors. They have good junior leaders, too, owing to *a military culture that **distributes responsibility to younger officers and sergeants* rather than solely assigning it to aging colonels and generals, as is the Russian custom.
> As the Bakhmut battle grinds into its eighth month and becomes increasingly urban, the Ukrainians probably have the advantage. “This type of combat is unlikely to favor poorly-trained Wagner fighters,” the U.K. Defense Ministry concluded.


----------



## Kirkhill

Related to the above - the losses in yellow are the most recent day's estimates.

What is notable about them is the ration of personnel to tanks.

Early in the escapade the losses were about 100 troops for every 10 tanks 
Now the ratio is 600 troops for every 1 tank.

Either the Ukrainians have got fewer tanks to shoot at or they have fewer tank killing systems.  Given the lack of Russian success, the increasing age of the tanks being destroyed and the reported use of high quality ATGMs on static structures it seems to me that the problem is a target poor environment.

For the Russians its back to the First Day of the Somme.


----------



## daftandbarmy

The Contractor's ego, and political ambitions, seems to be of paramount importance...


Ukraine War: Huge casualties and slow progress for Russia in Bakhmut​Retired Air Vice-Marshal Sean Bell discusses the situation in Bakhmut and why Russia is making slow progress trying to take the city.


----------



## Kirkhill

Russia reforming divisions from its brigades









						Russia Proposes Major Military Reorganization, Conscription Changes, Increase In Troop Numbers
					

Russian military officials are proposing a major reorganization of the country's armed forces, including increasing the age for mandatory conscription, as casualty rates from Moscow’s 10-month-old invasion of Ukraine continue to climb.




					www.rferl.org
				




Now if only they had some rifles and medical kits for all those extra troops.  A new tank or two might be welcome as well.

This reform is not going to change the picture in Ukraine in the near term.  Russia needs to freeze the conflict for a decade.


----------



## Kirkhill

Bakhmut made Kharkiv and Kherson possible.



> BOTTOM LINE​
> Ukraine’s successes in Kherson and Kharkiv were largely a result of the losses it inflicted on the Russian military in the Battle for the Donbas in the spring and early summer.
> Attrition enabled successful maneuver warfare.
> The course of the war in 2023 will depend heavily on external support and how well Russia integrates mobilized soldiers.











						How the Battle for the Donbas Shaped Ukraine’s Success - Foreign Policy Research Institute
					

As the Russian-Ukrainian War enters the winter, Ukrainians have reason to be cautiously optimistic about the course of the war. Following a strategic




					www.fpri.org


----------



## daftandbarmy

Joe MacDonald on being shelled by the Russkies....


----------



## Kirkhill

Chinese Whispers 

One article

Russia Readying to Utilize Advanced T-90M Proryv Tanks in the War Writers, EAT 
- headline as it appeared in the news aggregator Real Clear Defense

Ukraine War: A Massive Railway Echelon Carrying Brand New Russian T-90M Proryv Tanks Spotted In Belarus
- original headline as it appeared in the East Asia Times

Russia’s T-90M ‘Proryv’, the most advanced main battle tank, has arrived in Russia’s Central Military District in the so-called “special operation zone.”
- subhead as it appeared in the same East Asia Times article

 The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on December 20 that a group of T-90M “Proryv” main battle tanks have arrived for an armored unit of the Central Military District, state news agency TASS reported.
- Russian MoD announcement in the same East Asia Times article


A video trending on social media shows a massive railway echelon with new T-90M Proryv and T-72B3 battle tanks on the territory of the Republic of Belarus.
- text from the same article 

The video shows a train with a BTG's worth of mixed tanks (about 10) before the video cuts out.

Massive is relative.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> Great article from Forbes on the fighting in Bakhmut
> 
> 50,000 Wagnerians, including 40,000 prisoners (low quality light infantry)
> vs
> 24,000 Ukrainian troops organized in 8 Heavy Brigades


Here's a thought.
Lay out barrels and barrels and barrels of vodka in the centre in the Bakhmut.
Pull back the Ukrainian about 5-6k. Wait 24-36hrs and then move back in the Ukainian troops to mop up the drunken remanents and push back the line another 10-15km.


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> Seen like that it seems to display a poleaxe heritage.   Lots of sharp and pointy bits for the close combat fight.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Kirkhill said:


> Great article from Forbes on the fighting in Bakhmut
> 
> 50,000 Wagnerians, including 40,000 prisoners (low quality light infantry)
> vs
> 24,000 Ukrainian troops organized in 8 Heavy Brigades


May be that's the Russian game plan: send a bunch of expendable infantry against Bakhmut. Ties down some of the best UA units, while at the same time reducing the prison population/prison spending??

Just the cynic in me I guess.


----------



## MilEME09

Retired AF Guy said:


> May be that's the Russian game plan: send a bunch of expendable infantry against Bakhmut. Ties down some of the best UA units, while at the same time reducing the prison population/prison spending??
> 
> Just the cynic in me I guess.


It's also Soviet doctrine to use cheap conscripts to wear down the enemy then use your best troops to clean up and punch through.

In other news cam nets catch loitering munitions now


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1606408471271940103


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1605895005041819654


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1605895005041819654



Well that clarifies things.... If you're not Russian you're a Nazi.

Ergo, anybody that says I am a Nazi is a Russian.....


----------



## Maxman1




----------



## McG

Lack of ammunition likely limiting Russian flexibility to act.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1606543192488554498


----------



## Skysix

Discussion in english subtitled Ukrainian of their IPSO strategy (Information and Paychological Special Operations)


----------



## Skysix

Just had a thought ...(scary, riiight?)

The Putin narrative is all backwards. Moscow was created within the Kievan Rus back around 1160AD when Kiev was the capital and had been for about 250 years. So why has there not been more PsyOps / social media deconstruction of Putins myth that Ukraine (including Crimea and Kiev) is a "made up" state (thanks to a bad decision of Khrushchev in the 1950s)?

*Disclaimer, my grasp of Varangian and Soviet history is about as accurate as my understanding of the physics behind a black hole event horizon and informed primarily by John Ringo's "Kildar" books 😜 )


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Meanwhile, how to motivate your troops


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1607085505291898882


----------



## Skysix

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1607161982397841410


----------



## dapaterson

More on the situation at Engels:


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1607161549835358208


----------



## Kat Stevens

Colin Parkinson said:


> Meanwhile, how to motivate your troops
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1607085505291898882


In 1992 in Vukovar, we stood and watched a Russian major kick living shit out of two soldiers because they swiped two six packs of Fanta juice boxes from our kitchen. He even insisted that our Sqn was formed up in three ranks for the occasion.  Our medics sewed them back together, sans local anesthetic, at his direction. This is Russian troop motivation at it's finest.


----------



## suffolkowner

dapaterson said:


> More on the situation at Engels:
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1607161549835358208


last time Russia was confirmed to have lost 1 Tu-22 and 1 Tu-95, hopefully more this time


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Kat Stevens said:


> In 1992 in Vukovar, we stood and watched a Russian major kick living shit out of two soldiers because they swiped two six packs of Fanta juice boxes from our kitchen. He even insisted that our Sqn was formed up in three ranks for the occasion.  Our medics sewed them back together, sans local anesthetic, at his direction. This is Russian troop motivation at it's finest.



The Turkish Army enters the chat.


----------



## MilEME09

Coming soon to the armoured school lecture halls, how to defeat a superior armoured force.









						How Ukraine’s 1st Tank Brigade Fought A Russian Force Ten Times Its Size—And Won
					

The 1st Tank Brigade’s 2,000 troopers and roughly 100 T-64B and T-64BM tanks—some of the best tanks in the Ukrainian inventory—lay in wait in the fields and forests surrounding Chernihiv.




					www.forbes.com


----------



## CBH99

Colin Parkinson said:


> Meanwhile, how to motivate your troops
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1607085505291898882


Motivate?  Oh hell yes

Perform the next day?  Probably a hell no 


I’m guessing there is somewhere in the middle that would have sufficed…if anybody walked away knowing what the intended lesson was supposed to be 😕


----------



## Maxman1

The beatings will continue until morale improves.


----------



## McG

Remember, no obstacle is impenetrable if it is not covered by observation and fire.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1607280070808289281


----------



## RangerRay

Andrew Potter of The Line is cautiously optimistic about Canada’s support for Ukraine. Like what Churchill says about the Yanks, we do the right thing after exhausting all the alternatives. 









						The Line's Nice List: Canada finally gets it right on Ukraine
					

After a typically slow start, Canada is starting to show some real … leadership?!




					theline.substack.com
				




Personally, I think we should be sending them all our kit. It would be put to better use fighting Russians than sitting here rusting.  We can get new stuff.


----------



## KevinB

RangerRay said:


> Personally, I think we should be sending them all our kit. It would be put to better use fighting Russians than sitting here rusting.  We can get new stuff.



Maybe not all, but if every NATO national sent  a significant part of their Russian deterrence package…


----------



## suffolkowner

RangerRay said:


> Andrew Potter of The Line is cautiously optimistic about Canada’s support for Ukraine. Like what Churchill says about the Yanks, we do the right thing after exhausting all the alternatives.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Line's Nice List: Canada finally gets it right on Ukraine
> 
> 
> After a typically slow start, Canada is starting to show some real … leadership?!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> theline.substack.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Personally, I think we should be sending them all our kit. It would be put to better use fighting Russians than sitting here rusting.  We can get new stuff.





KevinB said:


> Maybe not all, but if every NATO national sent  a significant part of their Russian deterrence package…


We could at least send them stuff they can use that we are in the process of paying someone to dispose of.


----------



## brihard

If effing Germany would open the door to it, NATO could likely send a significant number of Leo 2s. I suspect that the gifting of modern heavy armour would have a disproportionate morale impact on Russia.


----------



## GR66

brihard said:


> If effing Germany would open the door to it, NATO could likely send a significant number of Leo 2s. I suspect that the gifting of modern heavy armour would have a disproportionate morale impact on Russia.


As far as the Canadian Leopards go, would we be dumping a significant maintenance burden on them with our old, worn out tanks?


----------



## MJP

GR66 said:


> As far as the Canadian Leopards go, would we be dumping a significant maintenance burden on them with our old, worn out tanks?


Yes absolutely they have been ridden hard since we got them and need refit.  It also doesn't help that there are 3 different variants so likely a non-starter from a donation perspective


----------



## suffolkowner

GR66 said:


> As far as the Canadian Leopards go, would we be dumping a significant maintenance burden on them with our old, worn out tanks?


give them to Poland for spares, etc and replace with Abrams?


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> give them to Poland for spares, etc and replace with Abrams?


The specifics of American lend lease do not just state Ukraine but allies as well. So In theory that could happen, I'd sooner tell America to send more Abrams from storage to Poland so Poland can give its leopards to Ukraine


----------



## brihard

I believe our A4s still have the shorter L44 gun? Though I don’t know how much that would matter? But that said, is the difference between variants mostly above the turret ring, with the hulls still being a viable source for cannibalized parts?

Out of curiosity (@MJP? Others?) is there anything even hinted at on the horizon for an MBT replacement in Canada’s future? If there were, what would be potential modern contenders?


----------



## daftandbarmy

MJP said:


> Yes absolutely they have been ridden hard since we got them and need refit.  It also doesn't help that there are 3 different variants so likely a non-starter from a donation perspective



You're making me think that we should beg for some new tanks from Germany or the USA too


----------



## GR66

daftandbarmy said:


> You're making me think that we should beg for some new tanks from Germany or the USA too


Ukraine is picking up a fairly nice collection from Russia...maybe if we ask nicely we can get some when they are done with them?


----------



## MilEME09

brihard said:


> I believe our A4s still have the shorter L44 gun? Though I don’t know how much that would matter? But that said, is the difference between variants mostly above the turret ring, with the hulls still being a viable source for cannibalized parts?
> 
> Out of curiosity (@MJP? Others?) is there anything even hinted at on the horizon for an MBT replacement in Canada’s future? If there were, what would be potential modern contenders?


Correct the A4s have the L44 not the longer L55 which is better suited for taking out tanks. Some differences in the hull include changes to the drivers hatch,  adding of a spall liner, and internal changes to save weight where possible


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> Correct the A4s have the L44 not the longer L55 which is better suited for taking out tanks. Some differences in the hull include changes to the drivers hatch,  adding of a spall liner, and internal changes to save weight where possible



Is the L44 vs L55 truly a real difference maker against the sort of kit the Russians are throwing into the fight, at the sort of the distances the fights are actually happening? Conversely, if fighting in tighter terrain like built up areas, does that extra length cause problems? I’m asking out of ignorance.


----------



## MilEME09

brihard said:


> Is the L44 vs L55 truly a real difference maker against the sort of kit the Russians are throwing into the fight, at the sort of the distances the fights are actually happening? Conversely, if fighting in tighter terrain like built up areas, does that extra length cause problems? I’m asking out of ignorance.


Really given performance of Russia tanks, no and given a lot of the major fighting is in urban areas, forests, etc, I'd say the L44 is better then the L55 in most cases. The length could cause problems in narrow streets limiting turret traverse,


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> Really given performance of Russia tanks, no and given a lot of the major fighting is in urban areas, forests, etc, I'd say the L44 is better then the L55 in most cases. The length could cause problems in narrow streets limiting turret traverse,


Thanks. Is APFSDS still the preferred way for a tank to open up another tank? And do I understand right that distance (and therefore velocity) make much more of a difference with penetrators than with HEAT?


----------



## dapaterson

Completely normal accidental defenestrations continue around the world for Russians, nothing to see here.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1607427421598277634


----------



## KevinB

MJP said:


> Yes absolutely they have been ridden hard since we got them and need refit.  It also doesn't help that there are 3 different variants so likely a non-starter from a donation perspective


Considering what they have, I suspect they’d be tickled pink. 
   Plus considering that’s all contingent on Germany playing ball, they could then be run through a refurbishment in Germany prior.


----------



## MilEME09

brihard said:


> Thanks. Is APFSDS still the preferred way for a tank to open up another tank? And do I understand right that distance (and therefore velocity) make much more of a difference with penetrators than with HEAT?


Outside of my lanes so I can't accurately say to the first part of your question aa it really depends on target. Example in the battle of 73 easting the US lost a Bradley because an enemy vehicle crew hit with a APFSDS round got back in engaged them. The armour of the Iraqi vehicle was so thin it basically over penetrated, but no secondary damage.


----------



## suffolkowner

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1607346483858128896

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1607442440142884864

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1607346936301993985
information leaking out about the Engels airbase attack accurate or not who knows? the loss of 5 bombers would be huge


----------



## daftandbarmy

suffolkowner said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1607346483858128896
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1607442440142884864
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1607346936301993985
> information leaking out about the Engels airbase attack accurate or not who knows? the loss of 5 bombers would be huge


----------



## MilEME09

suffolkowner said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1607346483858128896
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1607442440142884864
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1607346936301993985
> information leaking out about the Engels airbase attack accurate or not who knows? the loss of 5 bombers would be huge


The Russians are primarily using the Tu-95MS which is a newer varient modified to carrying larger cruise missiles like the Kh-101 and they only have 35. The loss of 7 of these would be a devastating strategic defeat


----------



## suffolkowner

MilEME09 said:


> The Russians are primarily using the Tu-95MS which is a newer varient modified to carrying larger cruise missiles like the Kh-101 and they only have 35. The loss of 7 of these would be a devastating strategic defeat


the Ukrainian attack was apparently in advance of Russian bombing mission and some of the casualties are pilots/aircrew. The one Russian source agreed with the casualties and they were the result of the shooting down of the drone which unfortunately hit the base anyways.

It seems pretty impressive to me that Ukraine would be able to carry out these attacks 600km within Russia on a strategic bomber base. Maybe I am naive but I would think the US would better protect its B-52/B-1/B2


----------



## Skysix

suffolkowner said:


> Maybe I am naive but I would think the US would better protect its B-52/B-1/B2


Barksdale and Minot do not currently have colocated or nearby the amount and types of air defences needed to stop a concerted cruise missile attack. They rely instead on geographic defense - being out of range of Chinese and Russian cruise missiles.

Ballistic missile defense is available but prorised against the ICBM threat not a swarm attack of short range conventional ballistic missiles launched from Cuba or Venezuela. And DEFINITELY not against multiple swarms of low cost Iranian drones launched in close succession from adapted seacans on a container ship in international waters.

I would imagine the much smaller and more strategically valuable B1/B2 fleet is better protected and with flexible/dispersed basing options already preplanned. Guam and Deigo Garcia are their own special kind of special...

*OSINT


----------



## suffolkowner

Skysix said:


> Barksdale and Minot do not currently have colocated or nearby the amount and types of air defences needed to stop a concerted cruise missile attack. They rely instead on geographic defense - being out of range of Chinese and Russian cruise missiles.
> 
> Ballistic missile defense is available but prorised against the ICBM threat not a swarm attack of short range conventional ballistic missiles launched from Cuba or Venezuela. And DEFINITELY not against multiple swarms of low cost Iranian drones launched in close succession from adapted seacans on a container ship in international waters.
> 
> I would imagine the much smaller and more strategically valuable B1/B2 fleet is better protected and with flexible/dispersed basing options already preplanned. Guam and Deigo Garcia are their own special kind of special...
> 
> *OSINT


I meant more in a forward deployed situation, not CONUS


----------



## Spencer100

brihard said:


> I believe our A4s still have the shorter L44 gun? Though I don’t know how much that would matter? But that said, is the difference between variants mostly above the turret ring, with the hulls still being a viable source for cannibalized parts?
> 
> Out of curiosity (@MJP? Others?) is there anything even hinted at on the horizon for an MBT replacement in Canada’s future? If there were, what would be potential modern contenders?


Canada and MBT replacement....lol.  Justin's goal is a CF (not CAF) as emergency force for snow storms and bake sales and also to be  to the less jusr than minimum to keep the US quiet.


----------



## brihard

Spencer100 said:


> Canada and MBT replacement....lol.  Justin's goal is a CF (not CAF) as emergency force for snow storms and bake sales and also to be  to the less jusr than minimum to keep the US quiet.


Sure. And in the meantime, the adults at some level are still always thinking long term forwards on such things. Major capital acquisitions and programs will consume a ton of bureaucratic time and attention years before that are a glimmer in the eye of a politician. I’m just curious if institutional CAF has any sense of this yet. Ukraine is certainly proving the need and relevance of tanks on the modern battlefield.


----------



## MJP

brihard said:


> Out of curiosity (@MJP? Others?) is there anything even hinted at on the horizon for an MBT replacement in Canada’s future? If there were, what would be potential modern contenders?


Not that I am aware of.  There are some refit and contracted maintenance things coming in the near future for the fleet so unlikely any serious work is being done on a replacement


----------



## dapaterson

Questions like this are discussed and debated at Defence Capability Board (DCB), chaired by the VCDS.  RCN, CA ad RCAF all have their own force development staffs as well that feed into those discussions.

That the RCN's staff are in the Directorate of Naval Requirements, abbreviated to DNR, which also has a definite medical meaning, leads to a few inappropriate jokes.


----------



## CBH99

GR66 said:


> As far as the Canadian Leopards go, would we be dumping a significant maintenance burden on them with our old, worn out tanks?


Are the Leopard 2’s as old & worn out as we make them out to be?

They are Leo 2’s, the same kind of tank currently used by Turkey, Poland, Germany, and a few Nordic countries.  All with similar maintenance requirements.  

While we do have 3 different models in service, the models don’t differ from each other all that much.  The maintenance is still mostly the same, with the major differences being in some of what’s bolted onto that turret.  



114 Leopard 2 MBT’s would be a solid boost to Ukraine’s MBT force, even if they did need a bit of TLC first.  

(Providing maintenance wouldn’t be an issue.  But now might not be the time to be training technicians on new kit?  Or send a class to the UK to learn real quick?)


----------



## McG

CBH99 said:


> Are the Leopard 2’s as old & worn out as we make them out to be?


We apparently use our small fleet at a much higher training tempo than was envisioned by its European designers. Some of people those tanks were also used in Afghanistan, and all of them were bought used. So the wear is higher than it one would expect for something we bought about 15 years ago. The challenge of maintaining three distinct MBT sub-fleets exacerbates problems of reliability, availability, and maintainability.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

A smart army would have been sending them in batches to be upgraded and refitted, so eventually they all be at the same standard.........


----------



## Kirkhill

Colin Parkinson said:


> A smart army would have been sending them in batches to be upgraded and refitted, so eventually they all be at the same standard.........



I think the army already played the salami slicing game on those tanks.   Creating a bunch of small projects out of one big project.  And go their wrists slapped.   

Is there any appetite on the part of the army, or the accountants, to feed more money to the tanks at all?


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Kirkhill said:


> I think the army already played the salami slicing game on those tanks.   Creating a bunch of small projects out of one big project.  And go their wrists slapped.
> 
> Is there any appetite on the part of the army, or the accountants, to feed more money to the tanks at all?


or to anything that might go "bang"?  You don't win brownie points with this government unless it has the Pride Flag on it and farts rainbows.


----------



## dapaterson

The history of the Tank Replacement Project is filled with abrupt changes, promises made that were left to others to realize, artificial fiscal constraints, creative accounting, declarations that certain problems were outside the scope of the project that was causing them, and turning a blind eye to training devices.

Promotions all 'round!


----------



## CBH99

Colin Parkinson said:


> or to anything that might go "bang"?  You don't win brownie points with this government unless it has the Pride Flag on it and farts rainbows.


As we all know, most often it’s not what is said, but how it’s said…

So on that note, instead of calling them ‘Main Battle Tanks’ we could call them Peace & Acceptance support vehicles.

Maybe send them to places where there isn’t a lot of peace or acceptance of people from the LGBQT-827282-KABSJENDKDNE community, and we use the vehicles to protect the above community & those potentially interested in learning more about it, while convening meetings to educate the locals on the importance of being accepting?

And the rounds aren’t armour-piercing, they are bigotry-defeating?  We could even slap rainbow stickers on them so the easily triggered dipshits (oooffff, sorry, I meant to say ‘valued citizens’) know that we’re being serious


Trudeau could be super woke AND fund all kinds of projects if we just started to sell the ideas from a different angle  🌈


----------



## suffolkowner

CBH99 said:


> As we all know, most often it’s not what is said, but how it’s said…
> 
> So on that note, instead of calling them ‘Main Battle Tanks’ we could call them Peace & Acceptance support vehicles.
> 
> Maybe send them to places where there isn’t a lot of peace or acceptance of people from the LGBQT-827282-KABSJENDKDNE community, and we use the vehicles to protect the above community & those potentially interested in learning more about it, while convening meetings to educate the locals on the importance of being accepting?
> 
> And the rounds aren’t armour-piercing, they are bigotry-defeating?  We could even slap rainbow stickers on them so the easily triggered dipshits (oooffff, sorry, I meant to say ‘valued citizens’) know that we’re being serious
> 
> 
> Trudeau could be super woke AND fund all kinds of projects if we just started to sell the ideas from a different angle  🌈


There was a leo2 peace support operations tank proposed actually according to wiki


----------



## Kat Stevens

CBH99 said:


> As we all know, most often it’s not what is said, but how it’s said…
> 
> So on that note, instead of calling them ‘Main Battle Tanks’ we could call them Peace & Acceptance support vehicles.
> 
> Maybe send them to places where there isn’t a lot of peace or acceptance of people from the LGBQT-827282-KABSJENDKDNE community, and we use the vehicles to protect the above community & those potentially interested in learning more about it, while convening meetings to educate the locals on the importance of being accepting?
> 
> And the rounds aren’t armour-piercing, they are bigotry-defeating?  We could even slap rainbow stickers on them so the easily triggered dipshits (oooffff, sorry, I meant to say ‘valued citizens’) know that we’re being serious
> 
> 
> Trudeau could be super woke AND fund all kinds of projects if we just started to sell the ideas from a different angle  🌈


How about Mobile Unacceptable View Correction Platform? Kinda trips off the tongue, don't it?


----------



## CBH99

Kat Stevens said:


> How about Mobile Unacceptable View Correction Platform? Kinda trips off the tongue, don't it?


Doesn’t sound like an evil empire at all!  
Trips off the tongue 😅


----------



## MilEME09

Colin Parkinson said:


> or to anything that might go "bang"?  You don't win brownie points with this government unless it has the Pride Flag on it and farts rainbows.


Give me 3 mat techs, and $100k, we'll make it happen


----------



## CBH99

MilEME09 said:


> Give me 3 mat techs, and $100k, we'll make it happen


Ya know, I’d believe it 

The Ukrainians have field engineered some pretty novel things, and those are in combat conditions.  

In a safe, spacious, climate controlled building here in North America?  I’d wager in favour of you & the techs!  



I wanna see something that farts rainbows… 🥺🙏🏻🌈


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Tough call keeping their kid there


----------



## Dana381

CBH99 said:


> Ya know, I’d believe it
> 
> The Ukrainians have field engineered some pretty novel things, and those are in combat conditions.
> 
> In a safe, spacious, climate controlled building here in North America?  I’d wager in favour of you & the techs!
> 
> 
> 
> I wanna see something that farts rainbows… 🥺🙏🏻🌈


My kids had a bubble gun that shot rainbowy bubbles. Is that close enough? 🌈


----------



## Colin Parkinson

I think the biggest thing drones/loitering munitions bring is the abilty to track and hit moving vehicles. 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1607844292084613122


----------



## Retired AF Guy

A few more Russians falling out of windows, in a couple instances literally!



> A new wave of mysterious deaths of Russian high-ranking officials: 24/12:  Alexander Buzakov, 66- General Director of military shipyard 25/12:  Alexey Maslov, 69- former Commander-in-Chief of Ground Forces of Russia 24/12:  Pavel Antonov , 65- one of the richest deputies in Russia



Its interesting that, Vladimir Bidenov, businessman from Yoshkar-Ola and also a friend of Antonov's apparently feel out of a window in the same hotel. Coincidence?

Link: https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love


----------



## MilEME09

When you have a date at 4, bit gotta fight the Russians at 5. I mean atleast moral is high


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1608128549407580163


----------



## Skysix

Even if this is a PsyOp (for now) I would not put it past the Ukrainians, with or without western assistance, to get us 1 step closer to SkyNet in 2023








						Ukraine developing combat drones to shoot down Iranian Shaheds - minister
					

At the beginning of the next year, Ukraine will receive new models of combat drones, including those capable of shooting down other drones in the air. — Ukrinform.




					www.ukrinform.net


----------



## Skysix

Part 0 of the British squaddie interviews from last spring


----------



## MilEME09

Ukraine is going to have a serious mental health crisis after the war, this guys been on the front in Bakhmut for months, no relief


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1608242646178209792


----------



## Colin Parkinson

It will help that defended their homeland and they be in good company with lots of peers going through the same.


----------



## CBH99

Colin Parkinson said:


> Tough call keeping their kid there


Talk about unsung heroes!  😳

I have to say Thank You again for Vice & outlets like it for being some of the only modern media that actually sends investigative journalists into conflict zones to show us what the big media companies don’t/can’t


----------



## ueo

CBH99 said:


> Ya know, I’d believe it
> 
> The Ukrainians have field engineered some pretty novel things, and those are in combat conditions.
> 
> In a safe, spacious, climate controlled building here in North America?  I’d wager in favour of you & the techs!
> 
> 
> 
> I wanna see something that farts rainbows… 🥺🙏🏻🌈


Check the PMO!


----------



## brihard

Looks like a Ukrainian air Defense missile either crashed into or was shot down over Belarus. Belarus has summoned Ukraine’s ambassador.

I suspect Ukraine’s ambassador to Belarus is about to bite his own tongue so hard his teeth punch through.



			Belarus Says Its Air Defense Shot Down Ukrainian Missile


----------



## brihard

And another much uglier story: senior German SIGINT officer arrested and held on suspicion of treason for being a Russian spy. It’s reported that he had access to various materials regarding the war in Ukraine, including some stuff passed on by Five Eyes.









						Suspected Russian Agent in Germany Had Access to Western Intelligence About Ukraine War
					

The suspect worked for the signals intelligence branch of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service, which conducts electronic surveillance and works with U.S. and U.K. agencies.




					www.wsj.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Good shot Manpads vs cruise missile

__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/zy0eyl


----------



## Quirky

MilEME09 said:


> Ukraine is going to have a serious mental health crisis after the war, this guys been on the front in Bakhmut for months, no relief



Meanwhile we have "soldiers" who are on medical leave because their office job is hard.


----------



## brihard

Quirky said:


> Meanwhile we have "soldiers" who are on medical leave because their office job is hard.


If they’re on medical leave, that means they’ve been assessed by licensed clinicians operating within their scope of practice. Those clinicians, working on far more information than you have watching and speculating from the sidelines, have granted medical leave. You’re uninformed on, and not entitled to the specifics of any individual’s medical leave. Stay in your lane.


----------



## Kirkhill

21 EW Regiment better get on their horses....

But they might want to proceed with some caution

*If anything, the (Russian) E.W. troops were too successful. They actually jammed more than a few Russian drones, too. “The Russians suffered extensively from these systems having an equally noticeable effect on its own troops,” the RUSI team noted.*











						Russia’s Electronic-Warfare Troops Knocked Out 90 Percent Of Ukraine’s Drones
					

The electronic suppression of Ukraine’s unmanned aerial vehicles blunted one of Kyiv’s biggest advantages in the early months of the war.




					www.forbes.com
				





AEROSPACE & DEFENSE
Russia’s Electronic-Warfare Troops Knocked Out 90 Percent Of Ukraine’s Drones​David Axe
Forbes Staff
I write about ships, planes, tanks, drones, missiles and satellites.
New! Follow this author to stay notified about their latest stories.  Got it!
Follow
140
Dec 24, 2022,05:52pm EST





A Russian army Pole-21 jamming system.
RUSSIAN STATE MEDIA PHOTO
The Russian military’s failures in Russia’s wider war on Ukraine almost are too numerous to list.



Too many attacks along too many sectors, which thinned out Russia’s best battalions. Too few infantry to screen the tanks. Inflexible air support. Artillery batteries that bombarded too many empty grid squares. And perhaps most importantly: inadequate logistics for what would become a long, grinding war.

But it’s important to note where the Russians _succeeded_. If only to understand where Ukraine might need to improve its own forces. For a rare picture of Russian military competence, consider the Kremlin’s battlefield electronic-warfare troops.

Amid the chaos of the Russian army’s initial push into Ukraine starting in late February, it took a few weeks for the Russians to deploy their extensive jamming infrastructure. But once they did, they began deafening and confusing the Ukrainians’ most sophisticated systems—in particular, their drones—in numbers that surely startled Ukrainian commanders.

The electronic suppression of Ukraine’s unmanned aerial vehicles blunted one of Kyiv’s biggest advantages in the early months of the war. The Ukrainians counted on superior intelligence—largely provided by UAVs—to make their smaller artillery arsenal more precise than Russia’s own, larger arsenal of big guns and rocket-launchers.
But the Russians’ electronic warfare prevented those drones from navigating and communicating—and deprived the Ukrainians of the precision they were counting on. “The defeat of precision was critical to unit survival” for the Russians, analysts Mykhaylo Zabrodskyi, Jack Watling, Oleksandr Danylyuk and Nick Reynolds explained in a study for the Royal United Services Institute in London.

Analysts anticipated the Russians’ jamming operations. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, which monitored the Moscow’s military buildup ahead of the February invasion, noted the deployment of a large number of electronic-warfare systems in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine.

They included TORN and SB-636 Svet-KU signals-intelligence systems that can pinpoint Ukrainian units by tracing their radio signals, RB-341V Leer-3s that combine Orlan-10 drones carrying cellular-jamming payloads with a command post on a KamAZ-5350 truck, R-934B Sinitsa radio-jammers and R-330Zh Zhitels that block satellite links.
The Russian electronic-warfare force had become so potent that OSCE was struggling to keep its own drones in the air. The organization reported a sharp increase in jamming in 2021. OSCE’s UAVs experienced signal-interference on 16 percent of flights in February that year, 28 percent in March and 58 percent in April.
Russia’s E.W. systems work best when their operators have plenty of time to set up and coordinate different functions. Which is why Russian E.W. was so fearsome in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, where Russian and separatist forces held roughly the same positions for much of the seven years between 2015 and the current, wider war.
That _also _is why Russian jamming didn’t work very well in the first few weeks after the Russians attacked in February. Russian battalions attacked, and retreated, too quickly for the E.W. troops to keep up.
That finally began to change in March and April, as battered Russian forces finished pulling back from Kyiv Oblast in central Ukraine and repositioning in the east.
The Ukrainian air force’s fighter pilots were the first to feel the effects of escalating Russian jamming. “As Russian E.W. complexes began to be deployed systematically, Ukrainian pilots found that they often had their air-to-ground and air-to-air communications jammed, their navigation equipment suppressed and their radar knocked out,” Zabrodskyi, Watling, Danylyuk and Reynolds wrote.

Russian jammers soon were thick on the ground in the east. “With the concentration of effort on Donbas, Russia set up E.W. complexes with up to 10 complexes per [13 miles] of frontage,” the RUSI analysts noted. “Collectively, these complexes effectively disrupted navigation along the front and conducted direction finding to direct artillery and electronic attack against Ukrainian aircraft and UAVs.”
Ukrainian brigades and batteries depended on two broad drone types to find Russian forces and walk in artillery: small, hovering quadcopters and octocopters; and larger, fixed-wing UAVs such as the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB-2. As Russian jamming confused GPS and severed radio links, these drones started dropping like flies.
“The average life-expectancy of a quadcopter remained around three flights,” Zabrodskyi, Watling, Danylyuk and Reynolds wrote. “The average life-expectancy of a fixed-wing UAV was around six flights” and, “in aggregate, only around a third of UAV missions can be said to have been successful.”
Of the thousands of drones the Ukrainians possessed in February, 90 percent were shot or crashed by summer, according to the RUSI analysts. This compelled authorities in Kyiv to plead with Ukraine’s foreign allies for replacements.
The drone-massacre complicated Ukrainian fire-control, making Ukraine’s artillery batteries less accurate—and therefore buying time for Russian troops to reconsolidate in the east and prepare for the summer’s fighting.
That the summer campaign ended badly for Russian army doesn’t change the fact that the E.W. troops did what the army asked of them: filled the air with electronic noise. “In the early phases of the fighting in Donbas when the [Ukrainian armed forces] had few precision systems, Russian E.W. reduced the effectiveness of these systems,” Zabrodskyi, Watling, Danylyuk and Reynolds concluded.

If anything, the E.W. troops were _too _successful. They actually jammed more than a few Russian drones, too. “The Russians suffered extensively from these systems having an equally noticeable effect on its own troops,” the RUSI team noted.


----------



## quadrapiper

Colin Parkinson said:


> or to anything that might go "bang"?  You don't win brownie points with this government unless it has the Pride Flag on it and farts rainbows.


There seems to be a certain degree of enthusiasm for the CSC... get some signal halyards fitted to a Leopard soonest.

Would an acceptance that armoured warfare needs to become electronically noisier and its highest-value targets less single-purpose, with tanks becoming more akin to a CSC (a la some Leclerc prototype features I think someone posted on here, or maybe Arrse?)?


----------



## brihard

Kirkhill said:


> 21 EW Regiment better get on their horses....
> 
> But they might want to proceed with some caution
> 
> *If anything, the (Russian) E.W. troops were too successful. They actually jammed more than a few Russian drones, too. “The Russians suffered extensively from these systems having an equally noticeable effect on its own troops,” the RUSI team noted.*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Russia’s Electronic-Warfare Troops Knocked Out 90 Percent Of Ukraine’s Drones
> 
> 
> The electronic suppression of Ukraine’s unmanned aerial vehicles blunted one of Kyiv’s biggest advantages in the early months of the war.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.forbes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> AEROSPACE & DEFENSE
> Russia’s Electronic-Warfare Troops Knocked Out 90 Percent Of Ukraine’s Drones​David Axe
> Forbes Staff
> I write about ships, planes, tanks, drones, missiles and satellites.
> New! Follow this author to stay notified about their latest stories.  Got it!
> Follow
> 140
> Dec 24, 2022,05:52pm EST
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A Russian army Pole-21 jamming system.
> RUSSIAN STATE MEDIA PHOTO
> The Russian military’s failures in Russia’s wider war on Ukraine almost are too numerous to list.
> 
> 
> 
> Too many attacks along too many sectors, which thinned out Russia’s best battalions. Too few infantry to screen the tanks. Inflexible air support. Artillery batteries that bombarded too many empty grid squares. And perhaps most importantly: inadequate logistics for what would become a long, grinding war.
> 
> But it’s important to note where the Russians _succeeded_. If only to understand where Ukraine might need to improve its own forces. For a rare picture of Russian military competence, consider the Kremlin’s battlefield electronic-warfare troops.
> 
> Amid the chaos of the Russian army’s initial push into Ukraine starting in late February, it took a few weeks for the Russians to deploy their extensive jamming infrastructure. But once they did, they began deafening and confusing the Ukrainians’ most sophisticated systems—in particular, their drones—in numbers that surely startled Ukrainian commanders.
> 
> The electronic suppression of Ukraine’s unmanned aerial vehicles blunted one of Kyiv’s biggest advantages in the early months of the war. The Ukrainians counted on superior intelligence—largely provided by UAVs—to make their smaller artillery arsenal more precise than Russia’s own, larger arsenal of big guns and rocket-launchers.
> But the Russians’ electronic warfare prevented those drones from navigating and communicating—and deprived the Ukrainians of the precision they were counting on. “The defeat of precision was critical to unit survival” for the Russians, analysts Mykhaylo Zabrodskyi, Jack Watling, Oleksandr Danylyuk and Nick Reynolds explained in a study for the Royal United Services Institute in London.
> 
> Analysts anticipated the Russians’ jamming operations. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, which monitored the Moscow’s military buildup ahead of the February invasion, noted the deployment of a large number of electronic-warfare systems in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine.
> 
> They included TORN and SB-636 Svet-KU signals-intelligence systems that can pinpoint Ukrainian units by tracing their radio signals, RB-341V Leer-3s that combine Orlan-10 drones carrying cellular-jamming payloads with a command post on a KamAZ-5350 truck, R-934B Sinitsa radio-jammers and R-330Zh Zhitels that block satellite links.
> The Russian electronic-warfare force had become so potent that OSCE was struggling to keep its own drones in the air. The organization reported a sharp increase in jamming in 2021. OSCE’s UAVs experienced signal-interference on 16 percent of flights in February that year, 28 percent in March and 58 percent in April.
> Russia’s E.W. systems work best when their operators have plenty of time to set up and coordinate different functions. Which is why Russian E.W. was so fearsome in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, where Russian and separatist forces held roughly the same positions for much of the seven years between 2015 and the current, wider war.
> That _also _is why Russian jamming didn’t work very well in the first few weeks after the Russians attacked in February. Russian battalions attacked, and retreated, too quickly for the E.W. troops to keep up.
> That finally began to change in March and April, as battered Russian forces finished pulling back from Kyiv Oblast in central Ukraine and repositioning in the east.
> The Ukrainian air force’s fighter pilots were the first to feel the effects of escalating Russian jamming. “As Russian E.W. complexes began to be deployed systematically, Ukrainian pilots found that they often had their air-to-ground and air-to-air communications jammed, their navigation equipment suppressed and their radar knocked out,” Zabrodskyi, Watling, Danylyuk and Reynolds wrote.
> 
> Russian jammers soon were thick on the ground in the east. “With the concentration of effort on Donbas, Russia set up E.W. complexes with up to 10 complexes per [13 miles] of frontage,” the RUSI analysts noted. “Collectively, these complexes effectively disrupted navigation along the front and conducted direction finding to direct artillery and electronic attack against Ukrainian aircraft and UAVs.”
> Ukrainian brigades and batteries depended on two broad drone types to find Russian forces and walk in artillery: small, hovering quadcopters and octocopters; and larger, fixed-wing UAVs such as the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB-2. As Russian jamming confused GPS and severed radio links, these drones started dropping like flies.
> “The average life-expectancy of a quadcopter remained around three flights,” Zabrodskyi, Watling, Danylyuk and Reynolds wrote. “The average life-expectancy of a fixed-wing UAV was around six flights” and, “in aggregate, only around a third of UAV missions can be said to have been successful.”
> Of the thousands of drones the Ukrainians possessed in February, 90 percent were shot or crashed by summer, according to the RUSI analysts. This compelled authorities in Kyiv to plead with Ukraine’s foreign allies for replacements.
> The drone-massacre complicated Ukrainian fire-control, making Ukraine’s artillery batteries less accurate—and therefore buying time for Russian troops to reconsolidate in the east and prepare for the summer’s fighting.
> That the summer campaign ended badly for Russian army doesn’t change the fact that the E.W. troops did what the army asked of them: filled the air with electronic noise. “In the early phases of the fighting in Donbas when the [Ukrainian armed forces] had few precision systems, Russian E.W. reduced the effectiveness of these systems,” Zabrodskyi, Watling, Danylyuk and Reynolds concluded.
> 
> If anything, the E.W. troops were _too _successful. They actually jammed more than a few Russian drones, too. “The Russians suffered extensively from these systems having an equally noticeable effect on its own troops,” the RUSI team noted.


Not overly surprising given the mass adoption of COTS RPAS that anyone could buy and that is aimed at everyone from hobbyists to professional photographers. These won’t be systems resilient to EW; they’re simply a camera and a small payload that can be readily used _now_. I’d expect high attrition in these systems.


----------



## daftandbarmy




----------



## dapaterson

UNCONFIRMED: Russian AD at Engels air base are reported to have shot down one of their own SU-27 aircraft.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1608481111642079232


----------



## Booter

dapaterson said:


> UNCONFIRMED: Russian AD at Engels air base are reported to have shot down one of their own SU-27 aircraft.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1608481111642079232


They sound twitchy and nervous.


----------



## Kirkhill

Taking a look at both Air Defence and EW it seems the best the Russians can do on the technology front is deny the other chap an advantage.  They don't seem to be able to exploit technology themselves.

Their best play?  Even the playing field and reduce everybody to pointy sticks?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Kirkhill said:


> Taking a look at both Air Defence and EW it seems the best the Russians can do on the technology front is deny the other chap an advantage.  They don't seem to be able to exploit technology themselves.
> 
> Their best play?  Even the playing field and reduce everybody to pointy sticks?



At least EW wise,  the things they have been doing on the offensive side have been thwarted by evolving technology. Defensively,  same thing.

Much like the CAF, Russia is fighting yesterday's war with different equipment. They kind of glossed over the part where technology has bounded 2 or 3 steps ahead of their doctrine. 

Case in point, HAM Radio Operators around the world are meaconing their HF secure data link by blasting EDM on adjacent frequencies. Whatever is being sent is being garbled to the point where it's not usable. Same goes for most of the GLOSNASS systems that require a 3G/4G link to have full functionality. 

 Meanwhile, Starlink and the various other VHF/UHF systems the West has provided are allowing the Ukranians to operate with impunity. 

In summary, Russia expected Ukraine to fight like Soviets and were surprised when they didn't...


----------



## Colin Parkinson

This would certainly help the Ukrainians, hope it turns out to be true.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1608562430409601027


----------



## brihard

Colin Parkinson said:


> This would certainly help the Ukrainians, hope it turns out to be true.
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1608562430409601027


That would be a great add, especially if they still have the TOW launcher.


----------



## Good2Golf

rmc_wannabe said:


> Case in point, HAM Radio Operators around the world are meaconing their HF secure data link by blasting EDM on adjacent frequencies. Whatever is being sent is being garbled to the point where it's not usable. Same goes for most of the GLOSNASS systems that require a 3G/4G link to have full functionality.


Agree with disruption effect, although I think of meaconing in its classic sense modifying and retransmitting navigation signals (GNSS or terrestrial-based) to effect platforms using the means to navigate.

Tangent: Many Poles still feel strongly that Russia used meaconing to kill their President and his wife and key members of the Polish General Staff and parliament in 2010 by causing the crash of Polish AF Flight 101 near Smolensk, RU.


----------



## Spencer100

Colin Parkinson said:


> Good shot Manpads vs cruise missile
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/zy0eyl


The Manpad was fast.  I don't think it was Starstreak.


----------



## Spencer100

Good2Golf said:


> Agree with disruption effect, although I think of meaconing in its classic sense modifying and retransmitting navigation signals (GNSS or terrestrial-based) to effect platforms using the means to navigate.
> 
> Tangent: Many Poles still feel strongly that Russia used meaconing to kill their President and his wife and key members of the Polish General Staff and parliament in 2010 by causing the crash of Polish AF Flight 101 near Smolensk, RU.


Many Poles believe......I think by now many people do everywhere.  LOL


----------



## daftandbarmy

Failed that PO check....


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1608823742960136192


----------



## Good2Golf

You’d think that after the first round hit nearby, they’d dispense with the secret stealth rolly-poley camouflage method of terrestrial translation…


----------



## Blackadder1916

daftandbarmy said:


> Failed that PO check....
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1608823742960136192



The original did it better.


----------



## Skysix

Good2Golf said:


> You’d think that after the first round hit nearby, they’d dispense with the secret stealth rolly-poley camouflage method of terrestrial translation…


Well, to be fair, it does reduce the amount of exposure to shrapnel. Just like it is mathmatically safer to sprint through a minefield.


----------



## brihard

Interesting article in Postmedia today. It looks like the government is going to court next week to attempt to seize and use $26m in frozen assets of Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, and to provide those funds for rebuilding Ukraine. We’ll be the first Western nation to turn assets frozen via sanctions into seizures. This could be a pretty significant case in international sanctions law and practice.









						Eyes of allies, Russia, on Canada’s precedent-setting attempt to redistribute oligarch's millions
					

If Canada succeeds in the unprecedented move to sell the assets of Roman Abramovich, it would put Russian assets in other countries at risk.




					ottawacitizen.com


----------



## MilEME09

The beast has been spotted in country...


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1609183639476244480


----------



## MilEME09

Ukrainian psyops are getting bold, if they can hit Engels Airbase, they can get Moscow



__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1609136201662857216


----------



## NavyShooter

I like the Swan Lake inclusion at the end....that's very unsubtle.


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> Ukrainian psyops are getting bold, if they can hit Engels Airbase, they can get Moscow
> 
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1609136201662857216



Bold indeed. But imagine if they took out a couple air defense sites around Moscow? Something completely and legitimately military, calculated to cause the shitting of bricks.


----------



## Kirkhill

3 Tanks - 710 rifles

When this all started the numbers were closer to 10 tanks and 100 rifles per day.  Or roughly the assault strength of a BTG.

Now the Ukrainians (and the Russian command) are eating through a battalion or two of PBIs supported by a single platoon of tanks.

They are also disappearing 6 artillery pieces and 16 APCs, or a battery, every day.


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> 3 Tanks - 710 rifles
> 
> When this all started the numbers were closer to 10 tanks and 100 rifles per day.  Or roughly the assault strength of a BTG.
> 
> Now the Ukrainians (and the Russian command) are eating through a battalion or two of PBIs supported by a single platoon of tanks.


 Bakmut and the Svatove counter offensive axis are eating up personal.  Ones a meat grinder, the other is where untrained mobilized troops are engaging elite units like Kraken, who yesterday stormed a village with such speed and surprise whole platoons have surrendered according to video.


----------



## GK .Dundas

I'm curious as to the number of tanks that the Ukrainians are able to repair in the field as opposed to depots and further down the line factories. 
Among the incredible number of things we've lost is the ability to to do this . 
I hope to god we have people watching this carefully.


----------



## suffolkowner

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1609123121285693441
more canadian help, every little bit


----------



## CBH99

I have really enjoyed the Ukranian psyops stuff so far.  Everything from LOTR references (calling Russian troops dumb orcs) to the patronizing commentary of when things go BOOM! because someone was smoking nearby 😈😉

But the risk of this going beyond conventional is still very real, and having either side hinting at stepping it up to that point is counterproductive in a sense.

(Looks like Ukraine is hinting at a EMP weapon being used against Moscow direct.  A great idea in that it cripples the city & causes all kinds of massive problems domestically, doesn't actually kill anyone directly, and cripples Moscow's C2.  Huge international brownie points, and a great opportunity to see what an EMP would do to a city in real, observable time)

Hitting a few AD sites around Moscow would be psychologically devastating to Russians, who could not deny that perhaps the war isn't going as well as their local media may say it is.

And for those in power, it could be a real eye opener that ending hostilities as soon as possible is preferential to both sides...because the enemy can, and most likely will, reach out to say hi sometime fairly soon.




But it could also backfire, and instead embolden them to escalate past conventional.  

Putin did clearly state the pre-emptive use of nuclear weapons was on the table, and opened silo doors to let the world know he isn't f**king around...  

So hitting those sites around Moscow would probably be a war-ender if everything stayed conventional.  But that's a big 'if' 
in a country where the leader has clearly stated losing isn't an option, has nukes, has threatened to use them, and shows the resolve to do so.

(Between his colon cancer & cardiac issues, Putin has less & less to lose each day, and is well aware his conventional options are more limited each day also.  Its been said before here, but animals are most dangerous when backed into a corner...)


----------



## brihard

CBH99 said:


> (Looks like Ukraine is hinting at a EMP weapon being used against Moscow direct.  A great idea in that it cripples the city & causes all kinds of massive problems domestically, doesn't actually kill anyone directly, and cripples Moscow's C2.  Huge international brownie points, and a great opportunity to see what an EMP would do to a city in real, observable time)



Um. EMP that takes out a city’s power grid is going to be a high altitude detonation of a nuclear device. Probably a sizeable one. For many reasons, nuking Russia is _not_ a very great idea at all. Let’s suck back a bit and be real here. Ukraine can justify a lot in the interest of defending itself. In the present circumstances it cannot justify that.


----------



## KevinB

brihard said:


> Um. EMP that takes out a city’s power grid is going to be a high altitude detonation of a nuclear device. Probably a sizeable one. For many reasons, nuking Russia is _not_ a very great idea at all. Let’s suck back a bit and be real here. Ukraine can justify a lot in the interest of defending itself. In the present circumstances it cannot justify that.


There are non Nuclear EMP methods. 
    There are also technologies that have similar effects to an EMP that aren’t an actual EMP.


----------



## brihard

KevinB said:


> There are non Nuclear EMP methods.
> There are also technologies that have similar effects to an EMP that aren’t an actual EMP.


A deployable NNEMP that would do most of a major city?


----------



## MilEME09

Here's Zelensky's new years eve address to the nation, have to say it was pretty good


----------



## CBH99

brihard said:


> Um. EMP that takes out a city’s power grid is going to be a high altitude detonation of a nuclear device. Probably a sizeable one. For many reasons, nuking Russia is _not_ a very great idea at all. Let’s suck back a bit and be real here. Ukraine can justify a lot in the interest of defending itself. In the present circumstances it cannot justify that.


I wasn't suggesting that Ukraine would be the one to escalate beyond conventional.  They'd lose the international support they have in a flash if they did.  (No pub intended...)

The video (as I interpreted it) was showing a blackened out Moscow, void of the lights & vibrancy that existed the year before.  

2022 was bright & busy, but 2023 was almost entirely dark, void of traffic, and didn't seem to have anything going on except plenty for rats to feast on.

My point was that Ukraine making a video basically saying "This was your 2022, but your 2023 is going to be spent in the dark..." may hint at an EMP being used.  And given the very real war happening, and Putin having less to lose each day, I'm not sure hinting at an EMP being used is going to help simmer things down.

(I did really like the video though!)


----------



## KevinB

brihard said:


> A deployable NNEMP that would do most of a major city?


Depending what was targeted I believe so. 
   There are also Microwave systems that can fry electrical transformers and routing stations and potentially even generation systems.


----------



## GR66

CBH99 said:


> I wasn't suggesting that Ukraine would be the one to escalate beyond conventional.  They'd lose the international support they have in a flash if they did.  (No pub intended...)
> 
> The video (as I interpreted it) was showing a blackened out Moscow, void of the lights & vibrancy that existed the year before.
> 
> 2022 was bright & busy, but 2023 was almost entirely dark, void of traffic, and didn't seem to have anything going on except plenty for rats to feast on.
> 
> My point was that Ukraine making a video basically saying "This was your 2022, but your 2023 is going to be spent in the dark..." may hint at an EMP being used.  And given the very real war happening, and Putin having less to lose each day, I'm not sure hinting at an EMP being used is going to help simmer things down.
> 
> (I did really like the video though!)


I took it more as a reflection of how Russia has left Ukraine in the dark with its strikes on the electrical grid system and how the same could happen to Russia...not as some sort of EMP attack.


----------



## CBH99

GR66 said:


> I took it more as a reflection of how Russia has left Ukraine in the dark with its strikes on the electrical grid system and how the same could happen to Russia...not as some sort of EMP attack.


Ah…Well your conclusion just makes sense.  Especially when, you know, Russia’s been doing precisely that.  

(I’m like a square peg going into a round hole some days…)


(HAPPY NEW YEARS EVERYONE!  May 2023 be a whole lot better than 2022…just when ya thought 2021 couldn’t have sucked more… yay 2023!)


----------



## Colin Parkinson

MilEME09 said:


> Here's Zelensky's new years eve address to the nation, have to say it was pretty good



Very well done, The US and UK get a good mention, even the Germans in a way. Although this is mainly aimed domestically, it will be good for international support as well.


----------



## Skysix

MilEME09 said:


> Here's Zelensky's new years eve address to the nation, have to say it was pretty good


"As it was in 1991, as it will always be"

Not much more to be said.....


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukrainians employing new dazzle camouflage scheme on their HIMARS


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/100vhcg


----------



## Kirkhill

24 yr old Mortar Battery Captain - trained by Canadians in Operation Unifier.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/100o1su


----------



## Kirkhill

Forward recce element - US volunteer with Vietnam experience

Apparently the rest of his blog is quite good.



> *In some areas wheeled trucks have issues with the mud, but I don’t see the lack of frozen ground causing a change in our plan or hindering planned activity much*. My thought is, if the ground was frozen, the plan would be much the same…although, I am not privy to top-level planning, nor should I be.
> 
> *We saw quite a bit of activity, a lot of-hit-and-run stuff from roving forward teams that take out a vehicle, then move away.* Most of that was on the way out, as we worked our way back through the leftovers of combat. *Only five of us made this trip, and we spent a lot of time hunkered-down in the day, and moving slowly at night.* As we got closer to the city, *we found and pinned several fixed supply sites, and one forward command center.* By now they have been hammered.





> Right now there is *pretty heavy combat going on* where we came from. The *Russians tried a rolling barrage of artillery* to get troops and vehicles moving, but *counterbattery fire either smashed them or they were forced to fold-up and move.
> 
> Lots of drones up – ours, theirs* – hard to tell the difference. *One of the advantages of drones, especially small ones, is you can get a dynamic picture of your overhead space so you can construct a hide that is more difficult to discover from above*, and indeed check your setup after constructing it. Obviously the use of a drone is a detection risk in itself, so you have to be smart about it. How it works is you *get a view of what is natural, and try to keep with that as best you can*. Some bad things are typically linear elements that do not match the ground conditions, sharp-edge trenches and holes, tree limbs regularly or unnaturally stacked, and so on.
> 
> Obviously* if you are faced with thermal detection then life becomes more difficult.* You just have to find the best cover you can, and then cover up as best you can.











						“On the way back we ran across a lot of dead Russians.”
					

(UV and his usual after action report he writes after returning from a patrol, then resting, and eating.) Just woke-up. Actually slept through the night – a rarity. Came in for a rest and res…




					ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com


----------



## Kirkhill

The guy whose stuff I posted above sounds like he is the real deal.  He's not writing.  He's in communication with somebody else who decided the comms needed publishing.  I think he was right.  The dialog starts March 19 outside of Kyiv.

The first of the Blog.









						“Last night two cruise missiles streaked over.”
					

(written by hand and photographed at night) Finally got a few stabilized laser rangefinders, but can only use them during the day, since range flashes can be seen with NV (night vision) stuff. And,…




					ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com
				





May 3, 2022 Popasna area



> This is the first war where I have regularly worn a helmet and a vest. Not always, but I keep that thing close by.
> 
> I don’t know what it is like to be in a bunker under a heavy barrage, but I now know what it is like to be outdoors in the target zone of a sustained barrage. The overwhelming cacophony, so loud and so harsh it just seems to squeeze your body…the eye blanking light, and if your unlucky enough to be close when it slams into the ground, being lifted in the air and bounced around by the concussion. *When one of my  grand-kids asks me what I did in the war…”well, I spent a lot of my time rolled in a ball in a ditch smelling my own ass.”*




Dec 31, 2022



> *Another bullshit thing out there is how long it takes to train on some of these systems, using US military standards.* Well, we have the luxury of time to do these things, and they are overburdened with bureaucracy and how the military apportions time for grades and rank. This is the wrong metric to use during a shooting war. The US has an accelerated schedule for this, but it is still slower than achievable when the shit hits the fan.
> 
> _From what I understand, Ukrainian soldiers have also proven themselves to be very motivated and fast learners. The “too much time needed to train” excuse is just that, an excuse._
> 
> *My guess is the US military is doing a rethink on a lot of this stuff, but does not want to get called into question their very buxom training funding.*
> 
> _Could be._
> 
> Oh it is for sure part of it. I know how the military works.* No General wants to get set down in front of a congressional committee and have to explain this shit. GAO bean counters would be jacking-off on their digital ledger sheets*. God knows what CBO would do…
> 
> _I definitely trust your take on it, you have been around the racket long enough to know for sure._
> 
> Well, I like to stick with technical stuff, and hate giving advice other than random recipes and the 50% mechanics of women’s knickers. So take what I say with a due grain of salt.


----------



## Kirkhill

April 12, 2022 1 Minute



> Moving south on the west flank of Izyum. Got in a heck of a bar fight on the way down. Amazing what bringing AT, and Carl Gs with flechettes will do. That is the ADM rounds. They create a lot of screaming.
> 
> We would have got our asses handed to us if the Yooks didn’t move-in with some heavy stuff.



 April 13, 2022 1 Minute


> Seeing M4s, standard RPGs, a few Javelins and NLAWs. When I first got here, just RPGs. Our group has more M4s than anything else.



April 19, 2022 1 Minute



> ...a lot of things I learned in Vietnam are useful. Stay under cover as long as possible, don’t stay in one place too long, move at night when possible, and when you have to, use all force available, then bug-out.





> _When you get a minute curious* what you think of Ukrainian military leadership.* Hard to get a sense of but they seem to be doing very well._
> Most of my dealings have been with *mid to low-level command, and in general they are pretty good. Ones with previous experience are quite good.
> I would stack their spec ops command up against anyone, especially as they are in their own terrain. They are creative, lethal, and sometimes are open to unorthodox tactics.*



April 29, 2022 - Popasna-Bakhmut area



> _You guys seeing a lot of Russian armor?_
> 
> Not a lot no, APCs and vehicles. but not much heavy armor. We ran into formations a few times, and they were mainly at ease, we did not have the resources to do anything, so just pulled coordinates and called them in.
> 
> NW of Kyiv we saw much more.



May 2, 2022



> We managed to get some NVGs and a few Barrett 50s, as well as some AT, 20 Javelins and 10 NLAWs. Our small group mainly got ammo, grenades and something I have been asking for…packaged explosives, det cord and detonators.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

I find it hard to believe anyone who fought in Vietnam is in the field as a solider in Ukraine. that would make them roughly 65-70 years old.


----------



## Kirkhill

Colin Parkinson said:


> I find it hard to believe anyone who fought in Vietnam is in the field as a solider in Ukraine. that would make them roughly 65-70 years old.



Me too.  Apparently he is 76.  Ripley's.....

There is a video of another "old fart" who volunteered.  He is 73 and his first battle was Tet.


----------



## suffolkowner

Good for them. Not for me I am too fat. Ive discouraged a few from going over for very simple reasons they had no experience and spoke neither Ukrainian or Russian. My one son was going to go with an Army buddy if he went. I did not encourage that either thankfully the buddies plans fell through and he reupped


----------



## Halifax Tar

suffolkowner said:


> Good for them. Not for me I am too fat. Ive discouraged a few from going over for very simple reasons they had no experience and spoke neither Ukrainian or Russian. My one son was going to go with an Army buddy if he went. I did not encourage that either thankfully the buddies plans fell through and he reupped



By the looks of the video above your post you're not too fat.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Huzzah, eh? 
​Ukraine receives hundreds of Senator armored vehicles from Canada​
*Canadian armored vehicle maker Roshel has delivered a hundred Senator high-tech armoured personnel carriers to Ukrainian Armed Forces.*

Armoured, troop-carrying vehicles were delivered to Ukraine as part of Ottawa’s military aid to Ukraine and the support of patrons from Eastern Europe.

“Roshel company delivered over 100 vehicles. Over 300 on their way to Ukraine,” senior company representatives said.

The Senator is a newly developed armoured vehicle (the first Senator rolled off the line in 2018) designed for law enforcement and border patrol use.

The Ukrainian military actively used these vehicles during the counteroffensive in the East and South of the country. In addition, a batch of armored vehicles was handed over to the border troops to ensure security at the border with Belarus.

The military notes the good maneuverability characteristics of the Senator compared to the heavier American and Ukrainian armored vehicles.
The company said the body of the vehicle has been specifically designed to incorporate advanced heat and noise insulation materials providing an uncompromised level of comfort to its occupants. The vehicle is fully air-conditioned for comfort use in harsh environments.

The Senator’s perimeter armouring of the passenger compartment and engine bay is designed to provide protection up to CEN B7 ballistic protection level, but the Senator’s armour withstands stronger impact. The floor is fitted with blast protection to defend occupants in case of a simultaneous explosion of 2 DM-51 German ordnance hand grenades or equivalent light anti-personnel mines.

https://defence-blog.com/category/news/


----------



## Kirkhill

I don't think he is an idiot.  I think he is Irish.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/101sm3h


----------



## Kirkhill

Interesting video on the Combined Arms employment of tanks by Ukrainians in the defence.
It sounds like PGMs have stripped the Russians of the ability to effectively employ their armour ( or at least the confidence to employ their armour).

1.   Not much in the way of tank on tank action.   Russian armoured vehicle activity is suppressed by the fear of Javelins
2.   Ukrainian tanks are held in reserve.
3.   While in reserve Ukrainian tanks focus on supporting the infantry with long range (up to 10 km) indirect fires controlled by observers with drones
4.   When the infantry lines are under threat from a mass attack by the Russians (more than the typical 10 to 15 man probe) Ukrainian tanks advance to prepared firing positions, fire a few shots, retire, reset, relocate and repeat as necessary.









						Old Ukrainian Tanks Do Double Duty As Battlefield Artillery Near Bakhmut
					

Ukrainian tank crews in the eastern Donetsk region are using retrofitted T-64s, designed in the 1960s, to shell Russian troops. They fire from hidden positions using coordinates provided by drones. When massed Russian infantry attacks, Ukrainian tanks move directly onto the battlefield.




					www.rferl.org
				




To my eye this looks like Field Artillery tactics that would not be out of place with a 1907 18 pdr or, in German parlance, a Sturmgeschutz.


----------



## Kirkhill

Ukrainian Improv....




> *Ukraine has achieved a cut-price version of what the Pentagon has spent decades and billions of dollars striving to accomplish: digitally networked fighters, intelligence and weapons.*
> 
> Kyiv’s improvised web of drones, fighters and weapons, linked through satellite communications and custom software, is *giving its soldiers a level of intelligence, coordination and accuracy that has allowed the initially outnumbered and outgunned forces to run circles around Russia’s massive but lumbering armies.
> 
> Ukraine’s grab bag of systems, built largely around off-the-shelf equipment, remain a far cry from the U.S. military’s sprawling and hugely ambitious digitization effor**t*, which has evolved and expanded with technological advances and carries names such as network-centric warfare. The Defense Department aims for network scale, security and bandwidth that far exceed Ukraine’s ambitions.
> 
> Still, say veterans of U.S. and allied digitization projects, *Ukraine’s success cobbling together a virtual command-and-control system on the fly offers valuable lessons for the West, particularly about the need to experiment and include nonmilitary experts...
> 
> Insurgencies have always repurposed tools at hand into weapons*—from bamboo spikes to Molotov cocktails.* In Ukraine, home to a thriving tech-outsourcing industry and hackers who operate outside the law, the motivated people are often software engineers who connect using digital services like encrypted messenger Signal and networks from companies like Elon Musk‘s SpaceX. And their tools have become mobile apps, 3-D printers and consumer drones.*
> 
> Units are *modifying off-the-shelf drones with slings they can release remotely to drop grenades on enemy position*s. Volunteer soldiers are using their private-sector experience developing *enterprise resource-management software for multinationals to automate payroll on the front line*s. One Ukrainian company is building* remote-controlled electric vehicles that can be mounted with heavy machine gun*s or other cargo.
> 
> And Ukrainian programmers have updated a system the military calls* Delta to give local commanders real-time battlefield intelligence received from drones and from spotters living in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine.*
> 
> “*It’s called connected wa*r, and the Ukrainian army will be the most advanced ever because of life experience,” said Roman Perimov, who is leading a new military technology development unit within a brigade of the Ukrainian army. His team is building homemade drone-jamming equipment and churns out cheap, high-capacity battery units to keep soldiers online during the fighting.
> 
> *“You can have 500 drones in the sky for a relatively standard military action,” *he said. “This has never been seen before.”
> 
> Cheap drones and drone defense represent one of the biggest innovation areas to emerge in this war. Both Ukrainian and Russian units typically use modified versions of small commercial drones for reconnaissance and attacks...
> 
> Ukrainian soldiers have been using 3-D printers to build compact plastic harnesses that snap onto popular commercial drones so that they can be armed with grenades, Mr. Perimov said. The harnesses have inexpensive light sensors attached to a mechanical clasp. When the operator tells the drone to flash lights on its belly, the sensors pick up the light, triggering the clasp to release a strap holding a grenade. Total cost for a 3-D-printed harness is about $10 to $15, Mr. Perimov said.
> 
> *One element of Ukraine’s success in innovation* is how different military units and *Ukrainian tech companies are working on their own new military technologies—a bottom-up approach *that at times more closely resembles a string of Silicon Valley garages than a Pentagon-funded project....
> 
> *One effort involving armed, remote-control electric ground vehicles stems from a Ukrainian military contractor that also is working on remote-controlled machine guns.* The company has been demonstrating the technology in recent months, but its founder declined to comment.
> 
> *One resource-management software project started in a military unit that was looking to make payroll easier after onboarding so many new soldiers*. Programmers who once built such systems for private companies as part of Ukraine’s sprawling technology-outsourcing sector turned to building an open-source system for automating payroll calculations. Now they are building other modules to the software to cover things such as equipment storage, according to people involved in the project...
> 
> Ukraine has had *some centralized innovation, too*. Its Defense Ministry and security services d*usted off a battlefield-awareness platform that they had built to North Atlantic Treaty Organization standards but largely abandoned*, said Yaroslav Honchar, a co-founder of Aerorozvidka, a nongovernmental organization that has been helping the Ukrainian army with surveillance drones since 2014. Ukraine *used the system to consolidate information from drones and satellites as well as on chatbots *with names such as “STOP Russian war” through which Ukrainians could send tips.
> 
> *Almost every unit that participated in the battle for Kyiv last spring used Delta, which units can access by laptop or tablet, Mr. Honchar said. “Those who are under shelling are the best learners,” he added.
> 
> The result is a cut-price, improvised approximation of *vast efforts that the Defense Department and other Western militaries have been working on for years,* a secure digital matrix linking commanders, fighters, weapons and intelligence*, say Western defense specialists familiar with Ukraine’s systems. U.S. ambitions for networked warfare have sprawled to cover a panoply of services, weapons systems and intelligence agencies while also trying to keep pace with tech advances...
> 
> *One important ingredient for Ukraine’s military technology has been the decision by SpaceX to provide thousands of Starlink connection terminals early in the war, Ukrainian soldiers and commanders say. Most units have one, sometimes camouflaged in cardboard or garbage to avoid being spotted by enemy drones.*
> 
> The U.S. is trying to adopt new technologies more quickly, including through a network of nongovernmental innovation hubs that are linked to the Pentagon but outside its bureaucracy, under the umbrella Defensewerx. They tap civilian know-how for military purposes and encourage brainstorming. Now, those hubs—and particularly Sofwerx, tied to U.S. Special Operations Command—will be studying Ukraine’s example, say people familiar with their work.




__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1028d2j


----------



## Kirkhill

And to take Bakhmut the Wagnerians want BMP3s and ammunition.

The BMP3s have both a 100mm cannon and a 30 mm autocannon.  


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/102bc0p









						BMP-3 - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Kirkhill

The claim is that the Wagnerites are motivated to advance by the threat of being raped by the Kadyrovites..... Mileage may vary.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/102bzni


----------



## daftandbarmy

We interrupt this broadcast for a HIMARS strike 


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1610037870017875972


----------



## MilEME09

daftandbarmy said:


> We interrupt this broadcast for a HIMARS strike
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1610037870017875972


Actually that boom was near kramatorsk, it hit a hockey arena being used to house humanitarian aid


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1610212475420409857


----------



## Kirkhill

> The Russians arrived in Sumy
> 
> The 50 paratroops in the area were ordered to leave along with the National Police and the city's leadership.
> 
> 20 city workers with military experience organized 400 locals on day one to hold the city.  They found weapons in local armouries - and after expanding the force to a few thousand rifles, a few dozen anti-tank weapons and molotov cocktails, they held the city for 6 weeks.  They also conducted sallies into the fields to disrupt Russian logistics which hindered the attack on Kyiv.






> How Sumy’s residents kept Russian forces out of their city​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> City council workers and close friends Serhiy and Ihor, were among the 400 Sumy residents that took up arms on the first day of the invasion. Photograph: Anastasia Vlasova/The Guardian
> Locals joined territorial defence forces when Russia invaded – and managed to hold the city despite being encircled
> 
> Russia-Ukraine war – latest news updates
> 
> Isobel Koshiw in Sumy city
> Mon 2 Jan 2023 15.13 GMT
> 
> 
> On 24 February, when Russia invaded, there were only a few dozen Ukrainian professional soldiers in Ukraine’s north-eastern city of Sumy, and they had no command centre. That evening, those 50 or so paratroopers were ordered to leave the city – about 20 miles (30km) from the Russian border – for another area. Most of the police force had already fled, along with much of the city’s leadership.
> Sumy’s residents were left, confused and in shock, to defend the city on their own as Russian forces rolled towards them. The Sumy self-defence forces, which formed for the most part on the first day of the invasion, managed to hold the city for almost six weeks, despite being encircled. After 6 April, the Russian forces were pushed out of Sumy region, and most of the self-defence forces members then joined the army where they are now serving.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Swamps, forests and shelling: new year on Ukraine’s northern frontline
> Read more
> Sumy region borders Russia on two sides, to the north and east. The efforts of Sumy self-defence forces and ordinary residents inside and outside the city contributed to the disruption of the Russian supply lines from the Russian border to Kyiv. Their efforts helped prevent Russian forces from successfully surrounding the capital and seizing control of the country’s command centre.
> Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has commended Sumy’s territorial defence forces several times. In his New Year’s Eve address, the equivalent of the queen or king’s Christmas Day speech in Britain, Zelenskiy singled out Sumy’s resistance efforts, describing how ordinary residents became the “bone in the throat” of the Russians.
> 
> 
> Though there were only a few thousand civilians with rifles, a few dozen anti-tank weapons and no armed vehicles or heavy weaponry, by mid-March the Russians were scared to enter the city. In an alleged recording of a phone call released by Ukrainian intelligence services on 16 March, a Russian soldier can be heard breaking down after telling his mother that they needed to take the road through Sumy city but “not a single column of [theirs] had survived”.
> City council workers and close friends, 29-year-olds, Serhiy and Ihor, were among the 400 Sumy residents that took up arms on the first day of the invasion. Others joined in the days that followed as they overcame the shock, according to those involved. They said only about 20 out of 400 had previous military experience and coordination was carried out through messaging apps and phone calls, with groups riding around to locations in civilian cars and trucks to meet the incoming Russians.
> “Formally it was called territorial defence forces but in reality, it was just people who had received arms from an army warehouse and formed reactive groups,” said Ihor, who along with Serhiy has now joined the regular army.
> “It was so chaotic that it’s even difficult to describe,” said Ihor. “There was no coordination or instructions from Kyiv or anything like that. We made [everything] up ourselves.”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> People walk down a pedestrian street in Sumy on New Year’s Day. Photograph: Anastasia Vlasova/The Guardian
> The self-defence forces had some handheld anti-tank weapons that they used but otherwise, they were just armed with guns and molotov cocktails, say the pair. Neither Serhiy or Ihor had body armour.
> 
> 
> “An old man walking through the city saw me and said his grandchild had fought and he would bring you a helmet,” said Serhiy, who said the bulletproof vest that he found did not have protective plates.
> One of the main factors which saved the city, said Ihor and Serhiy, was the first battle which took place outside the city’s art college. The 50 paratroopers destroyed a whole column of Russian tanks. Both sides did not at first realise they were facing the army, said Ihor and the Russians even got close enough to ask the Ukrainians for directions. But the Ukrainians twigged first and opened fire at a close distance successfully destroying the tank column, said Ihor.
> But when Serhiy and Ihor reached the paratroopers that night, with the rest of their small group of armed civilians, to their dismay, they were leaving.
> “We saw their armoured vehicles and we thought ‘phew’ we are not alone with our rifles,” said Ihor. “But then they were told to leave, and we were left on our own.”
> “People would call us from one district, like Kursk Street, and say: ‘Get down here, there’s a battle going on,’ and then someone else would ring you because they spotted Russians elsewhere,” said Ihor, describing how they would arrive ahead of columns and set up defensive positions and start shooting.
> 
> 
> It was this initial battle and other attacks mounted in the first few days by the self-defence forces which convinced the Russians there were lots of weapons and regular troops in Sumy, said Serhiy. “We were lucky. In reality, it was just self-defence forces like us.”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A Ukrainian checkpoint outside the city. Photograph: Anastasia Vlasova/The Guardian
> “Everyone started working for the victory. My girlfriends from the university were bringing us boxes of molotov cocktails to the base. There were grandmothers texting us with the locations of the Russians. I think because of this, the city was able to withstand the invasion,” said Serhiy.
> After the first three to four days, the Russians stopped attempting to enter and set up checkpoints, encircling the city. The self-defence forces did the same. Serhiy and Ihor, along with others, started to slip out of the city to ambush columns. Unlike the Russians, they said they knew all the small lanes.
> “Our task was to destroy their fuel trucks, after a while they had no fuel left,” said Ihor. “What kept happening was the tank would run out of fuel and then they would ditch it. Sometimes getting into other vehicles or sometimes taking cars from civilians.”
> “Four of our group died after running into the enemy because there was very little experience there was no plan,” said Ihor of the ambushes.
> After their failure to use Sumy city as a throughway, the Russians started to go around the city and use the southern Sumy region towns of Trostianets and Okhtyrka, where the regular Ukrainian army was present.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Oleksandr Nesterenko, a major-general from Sumy who fought in the battles for Kyiv and Kharkiv and is now overseeing his home area. Photograph: Anastasia Vlasova/The Guardian
> 
> 
> Oleh Anatolyvych, a 57-year-old man from the village of Krasnopoliya, metres from the Russian border in Sumy region, did not have a gun when the invasion started. He hid in the bushes along the highway which crossed the border and filmed the Russian columns and counted the number of vehicles. He then sent the videos to his son who was serving as an officer in Trostianets.
> 
> “In the first few days, there was a new column every two hours,” said Oleh, who has now joined the official territorial defence forces. “They did not suspect me because I look like an old man.” When they set up checkpoints in the village, Oleh said he pretended to be older than he was and avoided questioning.
> 
> Oleksandr Nesterenko, a major-general from Sumy who fought in the battles for Kyiv and Kharkiv and is now overseeing his home area, said that the Russians “can try” to attempt the same but he has no doubt that it will fail.
> 
> “What you have to understand is that all these people who were accountants and businessmen nine months ago, now have nine months of training. We’re here with more manpower, weaponry and we’re motivated,” said Nesterenko. “It won’t be like February again.”











						How Sumy’s residents kept Russian forces out of their city
					

Locals joined territorial defence forces when Russia invaded – and managed to hold the city despite being encircled




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Skysix

Boys will be boys... And going against traffic will only be hard on the traffic 😁


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> How Sumy’s residents kept Russian forces out of their city
> 
> 
> Locals joined territorial defence forces when Russia invaded – and managed to hold the city despite being encircled
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com


Wolverines indeed


----------



## Kirkhill

T54/55s heading thrrough Samara to Ukraine along with Gaz66 trucks (last production 1999)


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/101scjw


----------



## childs56

The big question is what will be required for a future war? Do we need all the high tech equipment proposed, or do we need lower tech equipment that has worked and continues to work from 20 or so years ago?
Why do we need a new high tech Stinger missile if the current one is still greatly effective?
Why do we need a 6th gen fighter if we are fighting countries who have 50 year old fighters?
Why do we need newer anti tank missile systems if the Javelin, Tow etc are so effective?

What enemy are we going to be fighting in the future that will require a 6th gen fighter to control the skies? When we know their Air defense can be taken out by current systems of the past 30 years?

The question comes, what does our enemy look like and what will be required to deal with them?
As of right now we have not seen a full on onslaught of Western Forces and equipment engage the former Eastern Bloc equipment and forces for which they were designed to do.  What we have seen is a piece meal of equipment thrown together and being very effective in its use.

If we engage in a war of equipment attrition can we sustain a long service by putting high tech against low tech?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

childs56 said:


> The big question is what will be required for a future war? Do we need all the high tech equipment proposed, or do we need lower tech equipment that has worked and continues to work from 20 or so years ago?
> Why do we need a new high tech Stinger missile if the current one is still greatly effective?
> Why do we need a 6th gen fighter if we are fighting countries who have 50 year old fighters?
> Why do we need newer anti tank missile systems if the Javelin, Tow etc are so effective?



We need equipment, period. That being said, the older "low tech" equipment is not whats being manufactured in great quantities here; at least in the West. You can get a shit ton more CG 84mm Gen 1s for the cost of an AT4, but you're robbing surplus stores and museums for parts, vice going to the manufacturer. 



> What enemy are we going to be fighting in the future that will require a 6th gen fighter to control the skies? When we know their Air defense can be taken out by current systems of the past 30 years?



Just because Russia turned out to be a paper tiger doesn't mean China or Iran actually are. You prepare for superiority on the assumption that future threats are going to emerge on that level. The reason we allowed our ADATS capability to die out was because the Taliban lacked and Air Force and Armoured Corps. Too bad our biggest threat now isn't the Taliban...



> The question comes, what does our enemy look like and what will be required to deal with them?



This is a great question for those writing the new Defense Policy Review. An even better question  for the PCO/PMO who feels Climate Change is more of a threat to Canada than our "good friend" China. 




> As of right now we have not seen a full on onslaught of Western Forces and equipment engage the former Eastern Bloc equipment and forces for which they were designed to do.  What we have seen is a piece meal of equipment thrown together and being very effective in its use.



This is a good thing. A very good thing. It means that cooler heads are prevailing and NATO is still the angry Pit Bull in the yard over pulling at the chain. Western systems in Ukraine are already showing their superiority, if not survivability, compared to the relics the Russians are shipping in. 



> If we engage in a war of equipment attrition can we sustain a long service by putting high tech against low tech?



All wars are ones of attrition. In some way shape or form. Technological superiority limits the loss of life and potential need for low tech efforts. I personally would rather see a FAC guide an F-35 onto an Enemy Infantry Coy than have to have a Battalion of our own have to rout them with the finest of 1980s machine guns, mortars, and NVGs.


----------



## McG

AMX-10 will join the Ukrainian arsenal.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1610682378124394496


----------



## childs56

rmc_wannabe said:


> We need equipment, period. That being said, the older "low tech" equipment is not whats being manufactured in great quantities here; at least in the West. You can get a shit ton more CG 84mm Gen 1s for the cost of an AT4, but you're robbing surplus stores and museums for parts, vice going to the manufacturer.


Wrong they still build and sell the GG84mm, provide new parts and ammunition. 


rmc_wannabe said:


> Just because Russia turned out to be a paper tiger doesn't mean China or Iran actually are. You prepare for superiority on the assumption that future threats are going to emerge on that level.


What superiority, numbers is what they have. Again how do you fight an attrition war?  


rmc_wannabe said:


> The reason we allowed our ADATS capability to die out was because the Taliban lacked and Air Force and Armoured Corps. Too bad our biggest threat now isn't the Taliban...


ADATS died out because the end of the Cold War, had nothing to do with the Taliban and their lack of Aircraft or Tanks


rmc_wannabe said:


> This is a great question for those writing the new Defense Policy Review. An even better question  for the PCO/PMO who feels Climate Change is more of a threat to Canada than our "good friend" China.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This is a good thing. A very good thing. It means that cooler heads are prevailing and NATO is still the angry Pit Bull in the yard over pulling at the chain. Western systems in Ukraine are already showing their superiority, if not survivability, compared to the relics the Russians are shipping in.


Or does it mean the West does not have the equipment to fight the war we prepared for our entire lives? 
Germany does not want it's tanks in the fight at all, half their equipment is out of service. 


rmc_wannabe said:


> All wars are ones of attrition. In some way shape or form. Technological superiority limits the loss of life and potential need for low tech efforts. I personally would rather see a FAC guide an F-35 onto an Enemy Infantry Coy than have to have a Battalion of our own have to rout them with the finest of 1980s machine guns, mortars, and NVGs.


If you only have five F35s to go against the 100 Mig 31s is that enough? Or should we have 100 F15s go against those Mig 31?


----------



## KevinB

childs56 said:


> Wrong they still build and sell the GG84mm, provide new parts and ammunition.


Not the CAF version. 



childs56 said:


> What superiority, numbers is what they have. Again how do you fight an attrition war?


Canada can’t period.


childs56 said:


> ADATS died out because the end of the Cold War, had nothing to do with the Taliban and their lack of Aircraft or Tanks


Wrong.  It had everything to do with the perception of the current and next threats. 



childs56 said:


> Or does it mean the West does not have the equipment to fight the war we prepared for our entire lives?


What do you mean we?
  Down here we have tons of stuff.    Just because others thought universal health care was more important WE didn’t take our eye off the ball. 



childs56 said:


> Germany does not want its tanks in the fight at all, half their equipment is out of service.


Cough still more than Canada…



childs56 said:


> If you only have five F35s to go against the 100 Mig 31s is that enough? Or should we have 100 F15s go against those Mig 31?


Or maybe 45 F-35 and 75 F-15’s…


----------



## childs56

KevinB said:


> Not the CAF version.


Canada needs to buy a few. 


KevinB said:


> Canada can’t period.


Canada will be lucky to lead a UN mission to Haiti with Bangladesh Soldiers. 


KevinB said:


> Wrong.  It had everything to do with the perception of the current and next threats.


Due to the former Warsaw not being the the threat, we did not want an expensive system to maintain and train. Plus reality is ADATs was not Artillery enough for Tube Gunners.  


KevinB said:


> What do you mean we?
> Down here we have tons of stuff.    Just because others thought universal health care was more important WE didn’t take our eye off the ball.


But the big players in Europe do not, they have similar effect the Russians are seeing, decay of decades old fleets that have been neglected and or downsized to the point of ineffectiveness. 
The US pulled their large masses of Equipment out of Germany and moved it to storage in Norway I believe. I am glad they did that. The US provided their safety net for far to long. Germany as much as they are our Allie has proven to be a passive one. 

Surprisingly the smaller European Countries are more willing to send equipment to Ukraine then some of the larger players.  


KevinB said:


> Cough still more than Canada…


Air North has more strategic Lift then the Canadian Military does. I think between the Reynolds-Alberta Museum in Wetaskiwin, the one in Edmonton and Calgary they may have more serviceable fighters then we do.   


KevinB said:


> Or maybe 45 F-35 and 75 F-15’s…


I think a blended formation makes the most sense, especially when they both bring some pretty good aspects that compliment each other well.


----------



## Skysix

childs56 said:


> In a war of equipment attrition can we sustain a long service by putting high tech against low tech?


Short answer, no. What the metric should be is does the cost provide significant benefit.

For example, if the cost of a 6th gen fighter SYSTEM of say a 6-pack and ALL the supporting missile and bomb carriers, drones, AWACs, refuelers and 5th gen fighters to defend the carriers, AWACS and refuelers will take out more AA/AD and air assets than the SAME system with the six 6th gen fighters replaced by 6 additional 5th gen fighters and the $ value of the destroyed assets is greater than the $ value of the 6-pack then it is cost effective.

Then look at combat life cycle. If that 6th gen mission package can be repeated a greater number of times a year (since we are talking about an attritional war) than the 5th gen package with the same or less O&M cost and downtime it is still cost effective.

Finally, look at the cost of the individual 5th vs 6th gen fighter and its life cycle spares, maintenance and training (pilots, maintainers and controllers) costs. And the amortised unit cost of the R&D of the fighter and their required unique subsystem/weapons. To be really a benefit, the total assessment of 6th vs 5th generation needs to have all of these be positive. And likely more that I am unaware of.

I remain unconvinced the total societal cost of the production of "X" line unit 6-packs of 6th gen fighters and support systems is going to be more cost, or even combat, effective than that same expenditure of resources on "X+" additional 5th gen line unit 6-packs and support systems.

It is a tricky question, and one where black vs white is not the question or answer. Multiple shades of grey exist. A system designed to be solely 6th gen has the potential to bankrupt in the same way the USSR couldn't keep up with the west. And a solely 5th gen system somewhat less so. Blended units and capabilities make the most sense, but the balance is elusive and subject to political and budgetary whims. (The early cancellation of the C17 and F22 lines come to mind). Keeping the last generation in service with Guard/Reserve and allies and the next to last generation units in maintained storage is a wise, if expensive, idea that has proven value. Especially in a war where depth of assets matters.


----------



## AmmoTech90

childs56 said:


> Due to the former Warsaw not being the the threat, we did not want an expensive system to maintain and train. Plus reality is ADATs was not Artillery enough for Tube Gunners.


ADATS missiles were life extended twice before the system was scrapped. No new ones were being made. Wooden rounds can have very long lives but they are not immortal, sooner rather than later we would have no usable missiles.


----------



## MilEME09

AmmoTech90 said:


> ADATS missiles were life extended twice before the system was scrapped. No new ones were being made. Wooden rounds can have very long lives but they are not immortal, sooner rather than later we would have no usable missiles.


Happens when you have an orphan system, as good as it was, without government owned munitions factories that companies are willing to give IP to, so we can make our own ammo too, it will always happen.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Seems the Ukrainians have opted for disposable surveillance assets.








			Putin claims Moscow ready for Ukraine talks as attacks go on


----------



## MilEME09

Colin Parkinson said:


> Putin claims Moscow ready for Ukraine talks as attacks go on


except russia has stated there will be no talks unless ukraine is willing to recognize Kherson, Crimea, Zap, Donetsk, and Luhansk as russian territory. That will not happen.


----------



## FJAG

AmmoTech90 said:


> ADATS missiles were life extended twice before the system was scrapped. No new ones were being made. Wooden rounds can have very long lives but they are not immortal, sooner rather than later we would have no usable missiles.


That was very much one of the problems. On the other hand Oerlikon ammunition was not an issue when we got rid of the twin Skyguards; it was the perceived lack of an airfield that they needed to protect after CFE was shuttered.

There was an underlying belief in senior leadership that we no longer needed/ could no longer afford an AD systems and that the PYs supporting the trade were needed for "higher" priority roles. We lost a classification/trade and all the skill sets that came with it. It will take a decade before we again have the officers and Snr NCOs skilled enough to sustain it.

🍻


----------



## Furniture

FJAG said:


> That was very much one of the problems. On the other hand Oerlikon ammunition was not an issue when we got rid of the twin Skyguards; it was the perceived lack of an airfield that they needed to protect after CFE was shuttered.
> 
> There was an underlying belief in senior leadership that we no longer needed/ could no longer afford an AD systems and that the PYs supporting the trade were needed for "higher" priority roles. We lost a classification/trade and all the skill sets that came with it. It will take a decade before we again have the officers and Snr NCOs skilled enough to sustain it.
> 
> 🍻


When I joined I wanted to be an AD gunner, I thought it would be the coolest job in the CAF. 

Turns out I was blind, so staring at the sky was to be my job... 🤣


----------



## dimsum

Furniture said:


> When I joined I wanted to be an AD gunner, I thought it would be the coolest job in the CAF.
> 
> Turns out I was blind, so staring at the sky was to be my job... 🤣


I still chuckle at ADF slang for AD gunners:  "Cloud Punchers"


----------



## MilEME09

Bradley's are going to Ukraine!, also rumors the US has pressured Germany into finally giving Marders as well.









						U.S. weapons package for Ukraine includes 50 Bradley Fighting Vehicles -officials
					

A new U.S. weapons package for Ukraine will include about 50 Bradley Fighting Vehicles, two U.S. officials said on Thursday.




					www.reuters.com
				





In other Ukraine news, the Ukrainian government has given putin the middle finger for his 36 hour orthodox Christmas ceasefire proposal, citing there was no ceasefire fire while Russian bombed civilians Dec 25th and 31st so why give them rest on their holiday we they didn't give us rest.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Bradley's are going to Ukraine!, also rumors the US has pressured Germany into finally giving Marders as well.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> U.S. weapons package for Ukraine includes 50 Bradley Fighting Vehicles -officials
> 
> 
> A new U.S. weapons package for Ukraine will include about 50 Bradley Fighting Vehicles, two U.S. officials said on Thursday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In other Ukraine news, the Ukrainian government has given putin the middle finger for his 36 hour orthodox Christmas ceasefire proposal, citing there was no ceasefire fire while Russian bombed civilians Dec 25th and 31st so why give them rest on their holiday we they didn't give us rest.


As I understand it, the first Bradley’s are to test the waters.  These ones are older M2A2/A3’s that haven’t been upgraded to A4 standard.

If they work well, we have about 2,100 of those in storage.


----------



## Kirkhill

A rough go all round in Bakhmut.

Some interesting insights into the artillery war and how the grind is getting to the infantry.



> As Battle of Bakhmut nears culmination, Ukraine’s artillery gasps for more ammo​by Illia PonomarenkoJanuary 5, 2023 12:53 am
> Share
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A Ukrainian artillery crew member walks near a 122-millimeter 2S1 self-propelled howitzer near Bakhmut on Dec. 28, 2022 (Francis Farrell/The Kyiv Independent)
> *BAKHMUT, Donetsk Oblast* — It’s the last days of December and the heat of the holiday season. But* an artillery battalion with Ukraine’s 24th Mechanized Infantry just couldn’t care less.
> For them, it’s like Groundhog Day – just another day of war that keeps repeating over and over. *
> From their place in an abandoned village in Donetsk Oblast, *they support Ukrainian infantry repelling Russian frontal attacks in Bakhmu*t. The site of the most grueling battle of Russia’s war in Ukraine so far, Bakhmut has been drawing comparisons with World War I’s deadly Battle of Verdun.
> *A 122-millimeter 2S1 self-propelled howitzer Gvozdika is waiting in the bushes, the dry grass around it charred after the gun’s multiple shots on the spot.*   (Edit: Static?)
> The gun is on standby.* The artillerymen are in an abandoned house nearby, where they try to keep close to the cellar*. The radio buzzes: A warning comes that *Russians counter-shot some of this battery’s guns this morning*, “so you guys better watch out.”  (Edit: Individual guns of the battery widely dispersed?  Out of sight of other guns?)
> Time after time, other Ukrainian howitzers rattle the air. The thunder of impact rolls through the steppe, and plumes of whitish smoke rise on the horizon. The artillery duel between Russians and Ukrainians is brutal. Russian artillery is attacking from Opytne, a town just south of Bakhmut.
> *“Hey, did you see what happened to those dudes from our regiment the other day?” one of the crew tells his mates. *
> *“By some miracle, the recon told them Russians were about to target their area. So they took cover at the last minute. But their machine is absolutely down. A knock-out hit.”
> He pulls out a picture of a burning 2S1 howitzer on his smartphone.*
> *“Shit happens, but they are all fine now.”
> Tanks, Humvees, and seen-it-all 4x4 trucks* roar time and again near the house as they try to dash through the* unbelievable swamps of dirt roads. *
> The radio buzzes again.
> “Ah, fuck,” the artillerymen drop their cigarettes and rush to the gun.
> *Two rounds are requested. The infantry fighting in Bakhmut need urgent support.     *(Edit:  Two round fire mission?)
> The howitzer gets loaded. The coordinates have been adjusted.
> “Fire!” the gun’s commander shouts.
> The old Soviet howitzer spits out a shot, instantly filling the air with smoke and the smell of expelled propellant. And one more time. The work is done — for now.
> *The crew get back to the same rhythm of waiting in a cold abandoned house for command. The wait may last a few minutes or painfully endless hours.*
> The grueling Battle of Bakhmut lasts for five months, but Russian forces, despite insane pressure and massive losses, have not yet managed to capture the important city, the local transportation hub and one of key fortresses of Donbas. Their slow advances finally got them to the city’s outskirts – in many ways due to their overwhelming artillery power.
> But over recent weeks, Russian advances in the area have been dying down.
> The Battle of Bakhmut is likely culminating.
> According to international monitors, *Russian forces appear to be losing their biggest advantage over Ukraine — the seemingly near-endless stocks of artillery munitions*. After so many months of inadequately costly effort to encircle the Ukrainian fortress city, even popular Russian war bloggers admit the acute munitions hunger that is now impeding their advances.
> *Ukrainian forces on the ground confirm the rapidly decreasing activity of Russian artillery. *
> But meanwhile, *Ukrainian artillery, despite extensive Western supplies, also struggles to make its best due to lack of munitions,* especially when it comes to old Soviet standards.
> On the ground, *this results in horrific losses among Ukrainian infantry holding the ground for months. *
> *‘This is good for us’  (Edit:  Ukrainian Fire Direction)*​*Behind this grid of artillery guns pounding Russian lines around the clock, there’s just one man. *
> *He sits at a desk in front of a laptop and an iPad in a townhouse close to the howitzers. The room is heated hot with a stove, and he is sipping coffee from his mug. This humble working place is a priority target for Russian counter-battery activity.
> The man, Stepan, is watching the real-time picture of the battlefield, transmitted by the drones in the air. He coordinates the artillery strikes delivered at requests of infantry.
> His iPad shows fields of black and green surrounding Bakhmut. As far as the drone’s electric eye can see, everything up to the horizon is a giant moonscape of black impact holes.
> Time and again, new plumes of smoke rise up in the field from fresh impacts.
> “Our godawful Starlink just isn’t working the way it should,” the specialist says as he angrily digs into his laptop.*
> *“How am I supposed to work when the internet is so damn slow?” *
> *As simple as that, the Ukrainian military shares the picture from drones with other units via link-only live streams on YouTube.  *
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A Ukrainian artillery loader primes a 122mm shell for firing inside a Ukrainian 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer near Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, on Dec. 28, 2022 (Francis Farrell/The Kyiv Independent)
> Russia initiated the Battle of Bakhmut in August, following the failure of its attempts to advance in other axes, particularly in Donbas.
> After months of intense frontal attacks, spearheaded by Russia’s notorious military company Wagner Group, it has become the meaning of devastating losses on both sides.
> *After five months of fighting, Russian forces near Bakhmut have only advanced between 6 and 12 kilometers east and south of the city.* Since September, they have stood at the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut.
> But neither frontal attacks nor attempts to isolate the Bakhmut garrison from the north (via Soledar) and the south (via Kurdiumivka) have had limited results, although they put the city closer to the downfall.
> *According to Ukrainian intelligence, in December, Russia had concentrated 40 battalion tactical groups and the largest artillery force in the area. *
> After the Russian military’s spectacular failures in Kharkiv and Kherson, the battle for Bakhmut has become the Kremlin’s only realistic chance to get a victory that can be used to reinforce the pro-war propaganda.
> For this sake, the Wagner Group, headed by increasingly powerful Kremlin insider Yevgeniy Prigozhyn, is going as far as the mass recruitment of convicts in Russian prisons to be thrown in the meat grinder of Bakhmut.
> In December, it felt like Bakhmut might fall soon.
> Russian forces made gains south of the city, aiming to sever the vital road running west to the city of Kostyantynivka. Had they succeeded, Ukrainian forces would have to withdraw from the city to avoid a death trap.
> Russian forces managed to enter the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut in December. But on Dec. 21, the day after President Volodymyr Zelensky made a surprise visit to the city, Ukrainian forces managed to carry out a tactical counter-attack and drive Russia out of the city.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Read Also
> Ukraine enters 2023 with frail upper hand over RussiaRead the story
> 
> And then on Dec. 27, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence General Kyrylo Budanov was seen visiting his scouting troops deployed in Bakhmut just 600 meters from Russia’s lines.
> *Many indicators allege that Russia’s pressure in Bakhmut is finally reaching its limits.
> Ukrainian forces are sustaining between 3 and 8 infantry attacks in the area daily,* according to troops on the ground. *But over the last few weeks, Russians were seen switching to using small squads of between 10 and 15 men instead of company or battalion-sized tactical groups. *
> Besides, *Russian airborne units were also reportedly deployed to the Bakhmut area to augment the Wagner Group*, seriously degraded after months of costly attacks.
> Another factor is the *reportedly diminishing Russian artillery power*.
> *In late December, Budanov said that the daily spending of Russian artillery in combat dropped from 60,000 to between 19,000 and 20,000 rounds *by the end of 2022.
> Moreover, according to the general, by March 2023, these issues will be even more obvious.
> On Dec. 24, the *United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defense also said Russian forces currently lack the necessary stockpile *to support large-scale offensive operations and sustain defensive operations in Ukraine.
> Rumors on deteriorating munitions have been circulating for quite some time in Russian pro-war Telegram channels. An escalation came on Dec. 27, when the *Wagner Group released a video in which two militants insult Russia’s Chief of General Staff Valeriy Gerasimov and accuse him of severe lack of artillery munitions in the Bakhmut area. *
> Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), an open-source investigations group, however, says the current situation is precipitated by poor and ineffective logistics rather than the physical absence of munitions in Russia’s stockpile per se.
> *“The intensity has definitely dropped several-fold, that’s true,” artillery specialist Stepan told the Kyiv Independent near Bakhmut,* as Ukrainian howitzers kept booming behind the house windows.
> *“Including in terms of counter-artillery activity*. Which is good for us.”
> *From the Ukrainian side, however, the situation is no better.
> Especially when it comes to Soviet-standard munitions,* the main stocks of which had been largely depleted back in summer. *According to the 24th Brigade artillerists, at the beginning of Russia’s war, each battery used to get up to 150 full loads of munitions a day (which corresponds to up to 6,000 rounds). Now they’re getting only up to 30 full loads a day.*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The casings of spent 122mm charges lie next to a Ukrainian 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer in the countryside outside Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, on Dec. 28, 2022 (Francis Farrell/The Kyiv Independent)
> *“We need every single 122-millimeter round anywhere in the world so we could go on helping our infantry. *We do everything we can, but we don’t have much ammo,” Ukrainian artillerists say.
> *“You just can’t have enough rounds in this war.” *
> According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S.-based defense think tank, *the depletion of the Russian stockpile “will likely in part prevent Russian forces from maintaining a high pace of operations in the Bakhmut area in the near term.”
> From the ISW’s perspective, the most brutal battle of this war is likely culminating. *
> “U.S. military doctrine defines culmination as the ‘point at which a force no longer has the capability to continue its form of operations, offense or defense’,” the ISW said on Dec. 29.
> “And ‘when a force cannot continue the attack and must assume a defensive posture or execute an operational pause.’ If Russian forces in Bakhmut have indeed culminated, they may nevertheless continue to attack aggressively.* Culminated Russian forces may continue to conduct ineffective squad-sized assaults against Bakhmut*, though these assaults would be very *unlikely to make operationally significant gains.”*
> Moreover, according to a British intelligence report issued* on Jan. 3, over the previous 10 days Ukraine had committed fresh reinforcements to the Bakhmut area.* And Russian attacks by the Wagner Group intensified in mid-December, but were poorly supported.
> *“Russian offensive operations in the area are now likely being conducted at only platoon or section level,”* the British Ministry of Defense said.
> *“It is unlikely Russia will achieve a significant breakthrough near Bakhmut in the coming weeks.” *
> *‘We don’t want to just die’ *​Once one of the best-looking cities of the industrial part of Donbas, the famous manufacturer of salt, Bakhmut is dead now.
> Almost no building is left intact. Some buildings are completely razed to ashes, with giant, meters-deep impact holes next to them. Most are damaged but still standing. The street signs wrecked with shell fragments still tell the story of vibrant life in the very recent past.
> The apocalyptic streets are empty and silent, except for the roar of artillery guns and the buzz of drones high above. Every now and then, one of the few remaining locals is seen in the street, often carrying bags of humanitarian aid.
> According to the military-civilian administration responsible for the area, *some 90% of residents have fled. But some 8,700 civilians out of a pre-war population of over 70,000 are still hiding in ruins.*
> Off and on, Ukrainian tanks drive slowly through the streets of rubble and rusty anti-tank hedgehogs.
> *All hell is breaking loose on the other side of the Bakhmutka River,* which divides the city in half. Russians are standing just at the gates, but they have not broken through.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A Ukrainian soldier takes cover from sniper fire in Bakhmut on Dec. 28, 2022 (Pierre Crom/Getty Images)
> *The infantry of Bakhmut — sick, tired, full of bitter resentment — has its own point of view *on what’s going on with the most monstrous and dramatic battle of Russia’s war.
> *“It’s hard even to describe our death toll in there,”* soldiers say as they get back to the line after a long-awaited yet short rest in the rear.
> *“It’s beyond horrific, it’s something a sane human mind can’t imagine. We repel at least three major attacks every single day."*
> "And Russians roll on, and on, and on, and on. *They never stop throwing their scum at us.* Sometimes we can hear Wagner commanders talk on communications: ‘Run to the Ukrainian trenches, and whoever makes it — you know what to do."
> Soldiers gladly pass an opened bottle of whiskey to journalists. They are just dying to spend a minute talking to a new face before they have to move on.
> *“It’s such a mess,” they get emotional. *
> *“What they write about us on the internet, all the glorious victories, is so different from what we see here every day. Where is our artillery, what are they even doing? It’s a complete mess. We don’t give a fuck if that’s Wagner or anyone else, we’ll keep fighting anyway.” *
> *“But we want to fight and win, not just fight and die sooner or later.”*












						As Battle of Bakhmut nears culmination, Ukraine’s artillery gasps for more ammo
					

BAKHMUT, Donetsk Oblast — It’s the last days of December and the heat of the holiday season, but an artillery battalion of Ukraine’s 24th Mechanized Infantry just couldn’t care less. For them, it’s like Groundhog Day – just another day




					kyivindependent.com
				




I am sure this is still all in line with "The Master Strrategist's Plan."


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1611074496621846528


----------



## brihard

KevinB said:


> As I understand it, the first Bradley’s are to test the waters.  These ones are older M2A2/A3’s that haven’t been upgraded to A4 standard.
> 
> If they work well, we have about 2,100 of those in storage.





KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1611074496621846528









I expect the 50 Bradleys are ‘just the tip’.


----------



## Skysix

ATACMS, a lot more 777 howitzers, barrels and shells this month would be a more useful transfer than a hundred assorted battlefield taxis in 3 months


----------



## Kirkhill

So planes and helicopters aren't as useful as anticipated meaning fewer air to ground strikes.

Both sides are running out of missiles and rockets.

Both sides are running out artillery rounds.

Both sides are running out of tanks and saving those available to use as poor man's artillery firing diminishing stocks of 100mm.

So NATO starts delivering 20 and 25mm systems to chew up infantry.

How long before those stocks run dry and we are counting the number of bayonets in inventory?


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> How long before those stocks run dry and we are counting the number of bayonets in inventory?


Well we do have 2,100 M2A2/A3 Bradley in excess storage, plus over thousand M1A1/A2's 

I'm not sure how well a Russian T-34 (I assume they will be at T-34's by then) would do against an M1A, 25mm APFSDS is already overkill for those...


----------



## Skysix

Kirkhill said:


> So planes and helicopters aren't as useful as anticipated meaning fewer air to ground strikes.
> 
> Both sides are running out of missiles and rockets.
> 
> Both sides are running out artillery rounds.
> 
> Both sides are running out of tanks and saving those available to use as poor man's artillery firing diminishing stocks of 100mm.
> 
> So NATO starts delivering 20 and 25mm systems to chew up infantry.
> 
> How long before those stocks run dry and we are counting the number of bayonets in inventory?


11.3 months (my pool entry)

Or never - if the west (mainly the US) decides to stop dragging this out and immediately ship needed stuff.

Unless Poland, the Baltics the UK or France finally say "F. it", this is a European problem not a NATO one and intervene with massive hardware support or directly under some of the other alliances with Ukraine they are part of.

Mechanisms also exist for allowing a self contained and commanded (under direction of Ukrainian high command) volunteer group like the Flying Tigers or the international brigades of the Spanish civil war. The difference from the current status quo would be the active support and authorisation of the contributing countries as formed, equipped and supported units all on personal or block leave. Who meet up with donated and suplemented equipment sets. Probably most effectively being PGM tube or cannon units with large depth of supply and integral logistics including ISR


----------



## KevinB

Skysix said:


> 11.3 months (my pool entry)
> 
> Or never - if the west (mainly the US) decides to stop dragging this out and immediately ship needed stuff.
> 
> Unless Poland, the Baltics the UK or France finally say "F. it", this is a European problem not a NATO one and intervene with massive hardware support or directly under some of the other alliances with Ukraine they are part of.
> 
> Mechanisms also exist for allowing a self contained and commanded (under direction of Ukrainian high command) volunteer group like the Flying Tigers or the international brigades of the Spanish civil war. The difference from the current status quo would be the active support and authorisation of the contributing countries as formed, equipped and supported units. Probably most effectively being PGM tube or cannon units with large depth of supply and integral logistics including ISR


Ben Wallace hinted the UK will be sending Challenger 2's today, which I suspect will open the floodgates from others who have tanks and are keen to let the Ukrainian Army have them so they no longer need to upkeep them for a War with Russia...


----------



## Skysix

KevinB said:


> Well we do have 2,100 M2A2/A3 Bradley in excess storage, plus over thousand M1A1/A2's


Having seen the storage in NorCal at low altitude from the air, a truly impressive sight, I doubt we have or can get the sealift to get even half of them over there in time to be useful however. Even assuming 24/7 reactivation maintenance at sea etc.


----------



## dapaterson

Sierra Army Depot.









						Sierra Army Depot · 74 Currant St Box 5000, Herlong, CA 96113
					

★★★☆☆ · Military base




					www.google.com


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> Unless Poland, the Baltics the UK or France finally say "F. it", this is a European problem not a NATO one and intervene with massive hardware support or directly under some of the other alliances with Ukraine they are part of.



I had more faith in the UK taking the lead under Boris and Liz Truss (she's the one who, as Boris's Minister of Defence, declared that serving soldiers could "volunteer" for the Ukrainian Foreign Legion.  The General Staff shut her down but not before a number of releases had been signed.)

Rishi is the perfect Prefect (Hall Monitor).  He will do what the headmaster calls for.


----------



## KevinB

The weirdest of dispersed operations - solo tank versus unsupported trench...

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1611117807822946305


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> Ben Wallace hinted the UK will be sending Challenger 2's today, which I suspect will open the floodgates from others who have tanks and are keen to let the Ukrainian Army have them so they no longer need to upkeep them for a War with Russia...



Sometimes it doesn't take very long at all before I find myself eating my words..... but this may be a new, and unbeatable record.


----------



## KevinB

Skysix said:


> Having seen the storage in NorCal at low altitude from the air, a truly impressive sight, I doubt we have or can get the sealift to get even half of them over there in time to be useful however. Even assuming 24/7 reactivation maintenance at sea etc.


All of those are actually fairly well maintained - not being a Navy guy, I don't know what the timeline would be to load, and move from CA to Poland - but I am guessing 4-5 weeks.   Sealift is actually one thing we do have in quantity for something like this.
   It would take longer to get the Ukrainian Army trained on them for anything beyond individual actions.


----------



## brihard

KevinB said:


> The weirdest of dispersed operations - solo tank versus unsupported trench...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1611117807822946305



Quite the Leeroy Jenkins charge...



KevinB said:


> Ben Wallace hinted the UK will be sending Challenger 2's today, which I suspect will open the floodgates from others who have tanks and are keen to let the Ukrainian Army have them so they no longer need to upkeep them for a War with Russia...



Where'd you see that? Do the Brits even have any Challenger 2s they could spare?


----------



## KevinB

brihard said:


> Quite the Leeroy Jenkins charge...
> 
> 
> 
> Where'd you see that? Do the Brits even have any Challenger 2s they could spare?


Was on Twitter - so it's a FWIW type comment.

As to the 'spare' aspect, I suspect the UK is seeing some long in the tooth Challengers and saying, hey we need to replace these anyway, why not let the Ukrainians use the for the purpose we bought them for...
  They are cutting 35% of the Challenger 2's anyway - only 135 are being converted to Challenger 3, and 70 are to be scrapped (or mothballed).
My guess IF it happens is that those 70 'spare" tanks would be the ones to go.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> Was on Twitter - so it's a FWIW type comment.
> 
> As to the 'spare' aspect, I suspect the UK is seeing some long in the tooth Challengers and saying, hey we need to replace these anyway, why not let the Ukrainians use the for the purpose we bought them for...
> They are cutting 35% of the Challenger 2's anyway - only 135 are being converted to Challenger 3, and 70 are to be scrapped (or mothballed).
> My guess IF it happens is that those 70 'spare" tanks would be the ones to go.



I wonder if the 4th man (the loader) will be borrowed from the artillery?  Seems like a 122mm SPH loader would be a good fit with little training?


----------



## Colin Parkinson

A western tank training deport in Poland would be useful. Send some operational tanks there now, to start training crews and maintainers while they select the best tanks to be refitted, or they send some for refit and transfer tanks from a operational US/Brit/German unit, who will get the refits when they are completed.


----------



## AmmoTech90

dapaterson said:


> Sierra Army Depot.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sierra Army Depot · 74 Currant St Box 5000, Herlong, CA 96113
> 
> 
> ★★★☆☆ · Military base
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.google.com


Sexy! I like the hardstands between the igloos.


----------



## AmmoTech90

⁸


KevinB said:


> The weirdest of dispersed operations - solo tank versus unsupported trench...


It was adaptive...


----------



## rmc_wannabe

KevinB said:


> The weirdest of dispersed operations - solo tank versus unsupported trench...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1611117807822946305



I mean.... targets of opportunity are still targets nonetheless. Tank versus trench at point blank was an interesting touch....


----------



## dimsum

KevinB said:


> The weirdest of dispersed operations - solo tank versus unsupported trench...
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1611117807822946305


Hey, that's like how I used to play Battlefield 1942!


----------



## Colin Parkinson

AmmoTech90 said:


> Sexy! I like the hardstands between the igloos.


I estimate around 800 M1's when that picture was taken.


----------



## Skysix

Better late than never









						Rare Sweden-made tracked carriers spotted in Ukraine
					

Ukrainian Soldiers have received a batch of rare Sweden-made tracked articulated, all-terrain vehicles. The Militarnyi has reported that the Ukrainian military has already received two Bandvagn 202 (Bv 202) articulated tracked carriers. The Bv 202 is a two-section articulating tracked vehicle...




					defence-blog.com


----------



## Zipperhead99

Looks like Bradleys and Marders are going to Ukraine in the near future 









						US and Germany pledge infantry fighting vehicles for Ukraine
					

The announcement ups the ante in Ukraine's defense against Russian forces that invaded the country late February 2022.




					www.defensenews.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Also, 18 wheeled SPG's for Ukraine:  KMW begins building new RCH 155 howitzers for Ukraine


----------



## FormerHorseGuard

Colin Parkinson said:


> Also, 18 wheeled SPG's for Ukraine:  KMW begins building new RCH 155 howitzers for Ukraine


how long does it take to build one of these machines?


----------



## suffolkowner

KevinB said:


> Was on Twitter - so it's a FWIW type comment.
> 
> As to the 'spare' aspect, I suspect the UK is seeing some long in the tooth Challengers and saying, hey we need to replace these anyway, why not let the Ukrainians use the for the purpose we bought them for...
> They are cutting 35% of the Challenger 2's anyway - only 135 are being converted to Challenger 3, and 70 are to be scrapped (or mothballed).
> My guess IF it happens is that those 70 'spare" tanks would be the ones to go.


The Challenger seems like the tank that lost out along with the Italian tank. No future going forward is likely as I doubt either country is going to support its own tank project. There should be a decent amount of Challengers stored as well. In the end I doubt the French and Germans will stay together on their tank project as well as the fighter program.









						Biden will send Bradley Fighting Vehicles to Ukraine. And tanks could be next.
					

The U.S. so far has declined to send the Abrams tank. But the latest move could pave the way for sending more armor to Kyiv.




					www.politico.com
				




Sea sparrows for Ukraine?

"The package will for the first time include radar-guided Sea Sparrow anti-air missiles, which can be launched from the sea or on land to intercept aircraft or cruise missiles. In a bit of battlefield innovation, the Ukrainian military has managed to tweak its existing Soviet-era BUK launchers to fire the Sea Sparrow, two people familiar with the matter said. Up to this point, Taiwan has been the only country to operate the ground-launched version of the missiles, while the U.S. and multiple allied navies use the ship-mounted version."


----------



## Skysix

suffolkowner said:


> The Challenger seems like the tank that lost out along with the Italian tank. No future going forward is likely as I doubt either country is going to support its own tank project. There should be a decent amount of Challengers stored as well. In the end I doubt the French and Germans will stay together on their tank project as well as the fighter program.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Biden will send Bradley Fighting Vehicles to Ukraine. And tanks could be next.
> 
> 
> The U.S. so far has declined to send the Abrams tank. But the latest move could pave the way for sending more armor to Kyiv.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.politico.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sea sparrows for Ukraine?
> 
> "The package will for the first time include radar-guided Sea Sparrow anti-air missiles, which can be launched from the sea or on land to intercept aircraft or cruise missiles. In a bit of battlefield innovation, the Ukrainian military has managed to tweak its existing Soviet-era BUK launchers to fire the Sea Sparrow, two people familiar with the matter said. Up to this point, Taiwan has been the only country to operate the ground-launched version of the missiles, while the U.S. and multiple allied navies use the ship-mounted version."


It is really amazing how much less time it takes to learn to operate "x" and how fast the "technically impossible" can be made to work when there are no exclusive contracts to lose


----------



## suffolkowner

Skysix said:


> It is really amazing how much less time it takes to learn to operate "x" and how fast the "technically impossible" can be made to work when there are no exclusive contracts to lose


At least in construction and mining equipment the more different types of equipment you operate and maintain the easier it gets to learn new ones. At least half of our dozer operators over the years had time on a tank. Its how my dad learned in the war like many others


----------



## Spencer100

Kirkhill said:


> I had more faith in the UK taking the lead under Boris and Liz Truss (she's the one who, as Boris's Minister of Defence, declared that serving soldiers could "volunteer" for the Ukrainian Foreign Legion.  The General Staff shut her down but not before a number of releases had been signed.)
> 
> Rishi is the perfect Prefect (Hall Monitor).  He will do what the headmaster calls for.


The Headmaster is calling for a slow burn.  They are very happy at the moment.  Many of the long term goals are being meant.  You don't even need the tin foil hat to see that. 

UK economy is further weakened post Brexit faster (return to EU is back on the table or soon will be) 
Europe is de carbonizing faster
US MIC is ramping up (this is helping for the future China fight) I hope to never see
Russia is going to be forever weakened,  Russian depopulation is going to be a crisis.  
Ukraine is going to depopulated no matter what.
China and some other get cheap energy (looking north now for resources and land)
Turkey is going to come out a winner no matter what.
Middle East Oil kingdoms are made wealthy so new Arab spring
etc


----------



## Spencer100

Skysix said:


> It is really amazing how much less time it takes to learn to operate "x" and how fast the "technically impossible" can be made to work when there are no exclusive contracts to lose


And faster when every training session the him/her pronoun, lands claim, building safety and washroom announcement is omitted


----------



## dimsum

Spencer100 said:


> And faster when every training session the him/her pronoun, lands claim, building safety and washroom announcement is omitted


I don't know about you, but I think "building safety" is pretty important.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Spencer100 said:


> The Headmaster is calling for a slow burn.  They are very happy at the moment.  Many of the long term goals are being meant.  You don't even need the tin foil hat to see that.
> 
> UK economy is further weakened post Brexit faster (return to EU is back on the table or soon will be)
> Europe is de carbonizing faster
> US MIC is ramping up (this is helping for the future China fight) I hope to never see
> Russia is going to be forever weakened,  Russian depopulation is going to be a crisis.
> Ukraine is going to depopulated no matter what.
> China and some other get cheap energy (looking north now for resources and land)
> Turkey is going to come out a winner no matter what.
> Middle East Oil kingdoms are made wealthy so new Arab spring
> etc


Reverting Brexit would be stupid. Accepting it as a reality and moving ahead with trade pacts with non-EU countries. Anyone who thought Brexit would not come with pain, was a fool. Once the UK sorts itself out the EU will not be able to afford not to trade with them and then they can work out trade agreements that are similar to the original idea of a trade union. For now the powers in the EU feel the need to "punish the UK". Eventually this will pass.


----------



## Good2Golf

Colin Parkinson said:


> For now the powers in the EU France and its lackeys feel the need to "punish the UK". Eventually this will pass.


FTFY


----------



## Spencer100

Colin Parkinson said:


> Reverting Brexit would be stupid. Accepting it as a reality and moving ahead with trade pacts with non-EU countries. Anyone who thought Brexit would not come with pain, was a fool. Once the UK sorts itself out the EU will not be able to afford not to trade with them and then they can work out trade agreements that are similar to the original idea of a trade union. For now the powers in the EU feel the need to "punish the UK". Eventually this will pass.


I hope so


----------



## RangerRay

F@ck yeah!









						What Bradley Fighting Vehicles Will Mean for Ukraine
					

The Bradley has the speed, range, and firepower to help Ukraine retake its territory.




					www.thebulwark.com


----------



## Spencer100

dimsum said:


> I don't know about you, but I think "building safety" is pretty important.


but PP with pictures of what a red Exit signs look like.....you know how many I have sat though.....Or a meeting with here are the bathrooms.  And when everyone works in the damn building.  

Here's the thing working with one of the largest OEM companies (more employees than CAF) in the world one of the safety studies they did showed decade over decade of safety spend did very little to improve safety.  Much of it is was "safety theater" and did less that nothing.  in some cases can be shown the opposite effect.  The main thing that improved safety was in machine operation and systems.


----------



## Navy_Pete

Colin Parkinson said:


> Reverting Brexit would be stupid. Accepting it as a reality and moving ahead with trade pacts with non-EU countries. Anyone who thought Brexit would not come with pain, was a fool. Once the UK sorts itself out the EU will not be able to afford not to trade with them and then they can work out trade agreements that are similar to the original idea of a trade union. For now the powers in the EU feel the need to "punish the UK". Eventually this will pass.


Fundamentally though, does the UK have anything the EU absolutely needs (vice wants)? Not being in the single market makes being part of an integrated supply chain very difficult, and the UK is a net importer of goods by a long shot, so the extra costs get passed onto UK residents, who are getting kicked in the head by the cost of living increases. They need the EU a lot more than the EU needs them, and going for a 'hard Brexit' to appease a sector of nutjobs was crazy.

UK trade in numbers (web version)

Anyone that wants to export to the EU will still need to meet EU standards, and the UK was pretty influential in creating a lot of those rules anyway. It was a weird act of self harm, that only seems like a good thing if you are using the financial system to launder money and hide assets which won't now be subject to incoming EU financial transparency laws.

Ukraine actually has a lot more leverage for negotiating trade deals, and apparently produces half the world's neon supply which is used somehow in making computer chips, as well as all the food and natural resource wealth.

I don't think they really need to do anything to punish the UK; their own incompetence is doing it for them, and the UK has yet to close any real trade deals, or even figure out the infrastructure to properly support imports/exports with the EU now. And given the UK acted and continues to act as the insane ex during a divorce, why would they spend a lot of time worrying about them?


----------



## Navy_Pete

Spencer100 said:


> but PP with pictures of what a red Exit signs look like.....you know how many I have sat though.....Or a meeting with here are the bathrooms.  And when everyone works in the damn building.
> 
> Here's the thing working with one of the largest OEM companies (more employees than CAF) in the world one of the safety studies they did showed decade over decade of safety spend did very little to improve safety.  Much of it is was "safety theater" and did less that nothing.  in some cases can be shown the opposite effect.  The main thing that improved safety was in machine operation and systems.


I always find it hilarious that someone decided to implement general industrial safety measures across the board and now you have offices being inspected like a job site or not otherwise adapted to the context.

A bit of debris escaping the paper shredder is not on the same planet of a bandsaw missing guards or something, but don't try and tell the office safety folks that. I think it comes from a place of good intentions, but it's always really hard to take seriously if you've been on a genuinely dangerous work environment that had real safety concerns and strenuous mitigations/inspection, to go to an office and someone is freaking out over a photocopier or something.

You can genuinely have real safety issues with offices but generally that's because something in code isn't being followed, and that's outside the expertise of the safety committee folks.


----------



## Kirkhill

The resurgence of the Light Anti-Aircraft Artillery. - Maxims and Vickers.


----------



## Kirkhill

Navy_Pete said:


> Fundamentally though, does the UK have anything the EU absolutely needs (vice wants)? Not being in the single market makes being part of an integrated supply chain very difficult, and the UK is a net importer of goods by a long shot, so the extra costs get passed onto UK residents, who are getting kicked in the head by the cost of living increases. They need the EU a lot more than the EU needs them, and going for a 'hard Brexit' to appease a sector of nutjobs was crazy.



Does the EU need the Joint Expeditionary Force, the UK's security guarantees to Sweden, Finland, Poland and Ukraine, and the friendly reminder to Vlad that he is not the only one in the neighbourhood with direct control over his own nuclear weapons?   And it has its own Banks and monetary system.

In other words it has the same tools it has wielded in Europe for the last 300 years or so.


----------



## KevinB

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1611450919173890053
It is unknown if they are M109A6 or M109A5 SPA's at this point.
 Only 960 A5's where upgraded into A6, but most of the A5's aren't in immediate operation usage condition and would need to be reconditioned prior to shipping, while the A6's are in short term readiness.


----------



## Kirkhill

Poland buying Abrams from the US and donating all of its 240 Leo 2s to Ukraine


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/104z7l0

Finland considering it.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/104z7l0


----------



## Kirkhill

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1610591498323767296


----------



## Kirkhill

Tales from Bakhmut - this guy generally seems to be straight up.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1611325546260221953
This is the Mavic 3 the guys in Bakhmut are asking their Chain of Command to supply

Mavic 3 - Specs - DJI - 0.9 kg currently selling for about $2500  CAD.


----------



## YZT580

Kirkhill said:


> Poland buying Abrams from the US and donating all of its 240 Leo 2s to Ukraine
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/104z7l0
> 
> Finland considering it.
> 
> 
> __
> https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/104z7l0


But will Germany allow it?


----------



## KevinB

YZT580 said:


> But will Germany allow it?


Based on what their Foreign Ministry posted on Twitter today it would appear so.


----------



## Spencer100

Navy_Pete said:


> I always find it hilarious that someone decided to implement general industrial safety measures across the board and now you have offices being inspected like a job site or not otherwise adapted to the context.
> 
> A bit of debris escaping the paper shredder is not on the same planet of a bandsaw missing guards or something, but don't try and tell the office safety folks that. I think it comes from a place of good intentions, but it's always really hard to take seriously if you've been on a genuinely dangerous work environment that had real safety concerns and strenuous mitigations/inspection, to go to an office and someone is freaking out over a photocopier or something.
> 
> You can genuinely have real safety issues with offices but generally that's because something in code isn't being followed, and that's outside the expertise of the safety committee folks.


Better said than me

One more story.  Navy Pete will have more knowledge on pipes than me as the navy being about piping!  no insult.  So I'm showing an industrial/office building to an ONT Gov Agency with the future management team and union.  The tour goes into the utility side of the building with the boiler heat and HVAC equipment so many many pipes.  Safety sign has in the area say pipe wrap corners may contain Asbestos in some cases. Please contact so and so before working on the pipes. Non friable contained Asbestos pipe corner wrap is safe in building.  Its a problem if you have to cut open for repairs etc.  The system was boiler with a heat exchanger forced air so no pipes in the office.  So the office worker in the front of the building the risk is less than zero.   The union sees the word Asbestos and would not and does not in the end move into the office space.  Oh as an aside the building was an ex Union Gas office/Shop.  You had never seen a better maintain industrial HVAC plant in my life.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Navy_Pete said:


> Fundamentally though, does the UK have anything the EU absolutely needs (vice wants)? Not being in the single market makes being part of an integrated supply chain very difficult, and the UK is a net importer of goods by a long shot, so the extra costs get passed onto UK residents, who are getting kicked in the head by the cost of living increases. They need the EU a lot more than the EU needs them, and going for a 'hard Brexit' to appease a sector of nutjobs was crazy.
> 
> UK trade in numbers (web version)
> 
> Anyone that wants to export to the EU will still need to meet EU standards, and the UK was pretty influential in creating a lot of those rules anyway. It was a weird act of self harm, that only seems like a good thing if you are using the financial system to launder money and hide assets which won't now be subject to incoming EU financial transparency laws.
> 
> Ukraine actually has a lot more leverage for negotiating trade deals, and apparently produces half the world's neon supply which is used somehow in making computer chips, as well as all the food and natural resource wealth.
> 
> I don't think they really need to do anything to punish the UK; their own incompetence is doing it for them, and the UK has yet to close any real trade deals, or even figure out the infrastructure to properly support imports/exports with the EU now. And given the UK acted and continues to act as the insane ex during a divorce, why would they spend a lot of time worrying about them?


Not to derail the thread further, but the EU went from Trade Union to batshit crazy central government, that's why the UK left. And yes the EU must punish them to avoid other countries from considering doing the same. the UK done a crap job of preparing for it, but they get through it and the UK is to big of a market to ignore for long.


----------



## Furniture

Colin Parkinson said:


> Not to derail the thread further, but the EU went from Trade Union to batshit crazy central government, that's why the UK left. And yes the EU must punish them to avoid other countries from considering doing the same. the UK done a crap job of preparing for it, but they get through it and the UK is to big of a market to ignore for long.


Brexit is like a divorce, sometimes it's worth getting out even if it means you have to sleep on an air mattress in an empty apartment for a while.


----------



## dapaterson

Furniture said:


> Brexit is like a divorce, sometimes it's worth getting out even if it means you have to sleep on an air mattress in an empty apartment for a while.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1611450919173890053
> It is unknown if they are M109A6 or M109A5 SPA's at this point.
> Only 960 A5's where upgraded into A6, but most of the A5's aren't in immediate operation usage condition and would need to be reconditioned prior to shipping, while the A6's are in short term readiness.



What would it take to bring them up to an L52 cannon?


----------



## MilEME09

For those not following, Ukraine has found the Russian orthodox church harboring weapons, recruiting, and lead by GRU assets. They believe this ceasefire attempt was a cover to stage attacks so they could claim Ukraine is anti Christian. Russias orthodox church is just a GRU asset..


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1611331247422279681


----------



## Maxman1

dapaterson said:


>


----------



## FJAG

Kirkhill said:


> What would it take to bring them up to an L52 cannon?


I'm not sure if that's possible anymore. I was researching the upgradeability of Canada's M109A4+ to A6 and was told the at he cycle would need them to go through an upgrade to A5 first and then on to A6 but that the production lines were limited to A5 to A6 and turning to only doing A6 to A7 upgrades. My source was pretty good on this but we're talking about the situation about a decade ago when they were into LRIP of the conversion. 

There were roughly 689 A6s to be upgraded to A7 over a period of 5 years as of around 2019 so my guess is the production line is still tied up with that.


----------



## Maxman1

Kirkhill said:


> What would it take to bring them up to an L52 cannon?



The L52 modification is separate from the A6 upgrade. Mostly it involves installing the gun from the PzH 2000 and modifying the loading system.


----------



## FJAG

Maxman1 said:


> The L52 modification is separate from the A6 upgrade. Mostly it involves installing the gun from the PzH 2000 and modifying the loading system.


Of course it is but its a whole different and much more complex mod and the factory is tied up doing A6 upgrades.

The M109L52 mods were done about two decades ago by RDM and Rheinmetall. RDM are the folks who did our C1 to C3 conversions. They went bankrupt quite a few years ago.

If you want to get something into the hands of the Ukrainians in time to make a difference, this isn't it.

🍻


----------



## Kirkhill

Soldiering...


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/105fsp2


----------



## daftandbarmy

Suicide missions and corruption... the Ukrainian Foreign Legion sends:


----------



## Maxman1

FJAG said:


> Of course it is but its a whole different and much more complex mod and the factory is tied up doing A6 upgrades.
> 
> The M109L52 mods were done about two decades ago by RDM and Rheinmetall. RDM are the folks who did our C1 to C3 conversions. They went bankrupt quite a few years ago.
> 
> If you want to get something into the hands of the Ukrainians in time to make a difference, this isn't it.
> 
> 🍻



I wasn't suggesting that, just pointing out the A6 program didn't involve conversion to a L/52 gun.


----------



## Maxman1

Reading about the Rooikat and how it uses the Oto Melara 76, I wonder if it would be feasible to up-gun the M3 Bradley in the same way. Or if it would be redundant with the Griffon II coming up soon.


----------



## brihard

Maxman1 said:


> Reading about the Rooikat and how it uses the Oto Melara 76, I wonder if it would be feasible to up-gun the M3 Bradley in the same way. Or if it would be redundant with the Griffon II coming up soon.


Why? 25mm is a great gun, and proven against Soviet armour. Why frig with something that works well and can be used immediately?


----------



## Zipperhead99

From Washington, Berlin and Paris, a sudden influx of armor bound for Ukraine - Breaking Defense
					

"This is a sign the three governments are managing escalation using a ‘boil the frog’ kind of strategy by gradually increasing support to Ukraine not through grand gestures but by adding different pieces of equipment, in intervals," said analyst Ed Arnold.




					breakingdefense.com


----------



## GK .Dundas

brihard said:


> Why? 25mm is a great gun, and proven against Soviet armour. Why frig with something that works well and can be used immediately?


Actually they've are currently developing and trialing a 50 mm version of the chain gun on a Bradley.


----------



## dapaterson

The 25mm is in service, has ammo in stock, and has spares.  Good enough today trumps potentially better tomorrow.


----------



## daftandbarmy

GK .Dundas said:


> Actually they've are currently developing and trialing a 50 mm version of the chain gun on a Bradley.



Which would be awesome


Rheinmetall To Explore 50mm Cannon Integration On OMFV Lynx​
American Rheinmetall Vehicles has announced the signing of a Master Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) with U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command Armaments Center (DEVCOM AC). The American branch of Rheinmetall says that the CRADA will facilitate collaboration on a “regular” basis for the development of “integrated combat vehicle weapon, fire control, and ammunition technologies” including the XM913 50mm cannon for Rheinmetall’s Lynx IFV entrant in the Optionally Manned Fighting Vehicle program to replace the M2 Bradley.









						Rheinmetall To Explore 50mm Cannon Integration On OMFV Lynx
					

American Rheinmetall Vehicles is collaborating with the U.S. Army to explore integration of the XM913 50mm cannon on the OMFV Lynx and other technologies.




					www.overtdefense.com


----------



## GK .Dundas

dapaterson said:


> The 25mm is in service, has ammo in stock, and has spares.  Good enough today trumps potentially better tomorrow.


Oh absolutely  , another point in it favor is that's we're not the only one using it. 
So should we run low on either. We should be able to purchase spares and ammo from somebody else.


----------



## Kirkhill

dapaterson said:


> The 25mm is in service, has ammo in stock, and has spares.  Good enough today trumps potentially better tomorrow.



How easy is it to swat Mavic 3 Quadcopters out of the sky with 25mm SAPHEI-T from a LAV?  Or do they work better against larger "drones"?
If the Ukrainians are claiming success with pintle mounted machine guns.....


----------



## Zipperhead99

Kirkhill said:


> The resurgence of the Light Anti-Aircraft Artillery. - Maxims and Vickers.


Understandable, now with so many small and cheap drones out there, it is a waste to use SAMs (even MANPADS) on cheap COTS drones.


----------



## brihard

Do we need something that’s more of a monster shotgun, to take out drones up to a couple hundred meters’ distance?


----------



## Colin Parkinson

brihard said:


> Do we need something that’s more of a monster shotgun, to take out drones up to a couple hundred meters’ distance?


----------



## KevinB

brihard said:


> Do we need something that’s more of a monster shotgun, to take out drones up to a couple hundred meters’ distance?


Most of the 35mm and larger cannons have proximity rounds that fragment near a target to give one a much better shot at air targets than a large canister type shell would.  

Canister rounds are primary anti personal rounds for tanks and DF arty - but the spread and range means they are fairly limited for Anti Air roles (plus a slew of ball bearings falling from the sky over everywhere)


----------



## brihard

Yeah… I’m just wondering what’s the lightest option reasonably possible.


----------



## KevinB

brihard said:


> Yeah… I’m just wondering what’s the lightest option reasonably possible.


The Gepards seem to be doing stellar work. 
   Pity the CAF didn’t retain the dual Skyguard guns - I’m sure they could have been modified onto a variety of Medium Tactical Trucks, or LAV…

Makes one wonder if there is a potential role for a LAV-Skyguard variant using a Gepard’ish sort of turret.


----------



## brihard

KevinB said:


> The Gepards seem to be doing stellar work.
> Pity the CAF didn’t retain the dual Skyguard guns - I’m sure they could have been modified onto a variety of Medium Tactical Trucks, or LAV…
> 
> Makes one wonder if there is a potential role for a LAV-Skyguard variant using a Gepard’ish sort of turret.


Yup, seems like a great piece of kit. I’m thinking lowest level- something to take out the drones that are dropping single grenades or RPG rounds onto trenches or OPs. There needs to be platoon level light RPAS defense.


----------



## KevinB

brihard said:


> Yup, seems like a great piece of kit. I’m thinking lowest level- something to take out the drones that are dropping single grenades or RPG rounds onto trenches or OPs. There needs to be platoon level light RPAS defense.


Lots of war games coming out of UKR theatre LL.  I suspect our Combined Arms BN’s down here are going to get much more combined shortly.


----------



## suffolkowner

It seems like the 35mm are living up to their intent. Can the 25mm do the job can it do the job on a Bradley or LAV?  The Bradley with the 25mm and TOW should be a welcome addition for the Ukrainians. Theres still lots of TOW available right?


----------



## KevinB

suffolkowner said:


> It seems like the 35mm are living up to their intent. Can the 25mm do the job can it do the job on a Bradley or LAV?  The Bradley with the 25mm and TOW should be a welcome addition for the Ukrainians. Theres still lots of TOW available right?


The 25mm is a fantastic weapon, depending on ammunition it can chew up pretty much anything.  I don’t suspect that UKR will get APFSDS-DU rounds (a U.S. only item) though so killing the T-80 and T-90’s frontally isn’t going to occur easily.  But standard APFSDS will make a mess out of most T-72 and earlier tanks. Plus HEI-T will just wreck any light vehicles and troops. 

TOW-2B are plentiful and while a wire guided system that requires the gunner to be stationary and guide the missile in, it has a top attack mode as well so one can fly over the tank and punch through the roof.  
  OS range of 4.5km, but the longest distance I know of a successful TOW engagement from a Bradley is slightly over 5.2km 

One of the biggest bonuses to the Bradley is the Fire Control, the thermal sights and LRF  will allow very selective targeting — right now nothing Ukraine has is even close to the degree of capability that the Bradley offers.


----------



## brihard

KevinB said:


> The 25mm is a fantastic weapon, depending on ammunition it can chew up pretty much anything.  I don’t suspect that UKR will get APFSDS-DU rounds (a U.S. only item) though so killing the T-80 and T-90’s frontally isn’t going to occur easily.  But standard APFSDS will make a mess out of most T-72 and earlier tanks. Plus HEI-T will just wreck any light vehicles and troops.
> 
> TOW-2B are plentiful and while a wire guided system that requires the gunner to be stationary and guide the missile in, it has a top attack mode as well so one can fly over the tank and punch through the roof.
> OS range of 4.5km, but the longest distance I know of a successful TOW engagement from a Bradley is slightly over 5.2km
> 
> One of the biggest bonuses to the Bradley is the Fire Control, the thermal sights and LRF  will allow very selective targeting — right now nothing Ukraine has is even close to the degree of capability that the Bradley offers.


Yup. Ukraine already had a lot of ability to ‘hit’ and ‘kill’. More ‘see’ (attached to the other two) will be a great add.


----------



## KevinB

Makes one wonder if the DIVAD SGT York was just ahead of it’s time…








						DEMISE OF THE SGT. YORK: MODEL TURNS TO DUD (Published 1985)
					






					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Kirkhill

I'm wondering about the possibility of Airburst 25mm ammunition for the Bushmaster.







						AHEAD Air Burst Munition
					

AHEAD technology, developed by Oerlikon Contraves improves the capability of air defense guns such to engage and destroy aerial targets, from large aircraft to small targets such as missiles or PGMs




					defense-update.com
				











						XM25 CDTE - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				





Or maybe you just swap out the pintle mount for the C16 with an FCS13 RE?











						FCS13RE - Demo Videos - Aimpoint Global
					

The FCS13-RE provides a very high probability of first-shot hit on both stationary and moving targets at extended ranges and utilizes a very intuitive user control interface.




					www.aimpoint.com
				












						Carl-Gustaf M4: ammunition go smarter - EDR Magazine
					

At the 2014 edition of the Ground Combat Demonstration, speaking of its new airburst round, Saab announced that this would




					www.edrmagazine.eu
				






			https://www.supplycore.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Aimpoint-Optics-LoRes.pdf


----------



## Zipperhead99

For the first time US to supply Ukraine with 18 M109 Paladin 155mm howitzers | Defense News January 2023 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2023 | Archive News year
					

For the first time US to supply Ukraine with 18 M109 Paladin 155mm tracked self-propelled howitzers




					www.armyrecognition.com
				




And the Christmas gifts keep coming for Ukraine!


----------



## brihard

Zipperhead99 said:


> For the first time US to supply Ukraine with 18 M109 Paladin 155mm howitzers | Defense News January 2023 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2023 | Archive News year
> 
> 
> For the first time US to supply Ukraine with 18 M109 Paladin 155mm tracked self-propelled howitzers
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.armyrecognition.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And the Christmas gifts keep coming for Ukraine!


It would be interesting to know how much work is going on at Sierra and other army depots to bring kit from long term storage to operational state.


----------



## KevinB

brihard said:


> It would be interesting to know how much work is going on at Sierra and other army depots to bring kit from long term storage to operational state.


Agreed. 
 Even more interesting it seems that those A6’s and Bradley’s are coming out of POMCUS depots in Europe, so basically current versions (in the A6 case warstock that hadn’t gone to be refit to A7, and A3 Bradley’s that hadn’t yet gone through reset to A4).  
   If that holds true, it seems that if Abrams go from us to UKR they will also be M1A2 SepV2/3 tanks.


----------



## Prairie canuck

It seems as though Putin's nuclear threat has dissolved and the west has less apprehension with supplying Ukraine with more modern weapons. I wonder if China and India have placed the No Nukes condition on their support for Russia and the west knows it?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Prairie canuck said:


> It seems as though Putin's nuclear threat has dissolved and the west has less apprehension with supplying Ukraine with more modern weapons. I wonder if China and India have placed the No Nukes condition on their support for Russia and the west knows it?



I think that most Russians know that the nuclear Sabre is better in its scabbard.


----------



## Prairie canuck

rmc_wannabe said:


> I think that most Russians know that the nuclear Sabre is better in its scabbard.


Putin is not "most Russians". The threat was used as the reason the west was reluctant to send modern weaponry from the outset. Most of the equipment sent was Soviet designed and built and it may be that there is few  left to send, however, there is a creep towards more modern NATO equipment and in larger quantities. LAVs from Canada, Bradleys from the US, and Poland saying it would send it's Leopards once the Abrams arrive as well as Marders from Germany. Still not "top of the line" NATO equipment but creeping in that direction.


----------



## brihard

KevinB said:


> Agreed.
> Even more interesting it seems that those A6’s and Bradley’s are coming out of POMCUS depots in Europe, so basically current versions (in the A6 case warstock that hadn’t gone to be refit to A7, and A3 Bradley’s that hadn’t yet gone through reset to A4).
> If that holds true, it seems that if Abrams go from us to UKR they will also be M1A2 SepV2/3 tanks.



Out of POMCUS? THAT’s kind of a big deal, I think? That’s drawing down immediately available war stock.

Forgot to ask earlier- 25mm; is there much real armour penetration difference between APFSDS-DU vs APFSDS-T? Or does US just not use or stock the latter much because they have DU?


----------



## McG

Performance difference depends on the density of the metal used in the standard round. The more dense the metal, the better its penetration will be.


----------



## brihard

McG said:


> Performance difference depends on the density of the metal used in the standard round. The more dense the metal, the better its penetration will be.


Tungsten’s slightly more dense in raw chemistry I think, but I know just enough to know I barely know shit and there’s probably much more to it.


----------



## McG

brihard said:


> Tungsten’s slightly more dense in raw chemistry I think, but I know just enough to know I barely know shit and there’s probably much more to it.


Apparently DU rounds experience a shearing or ablation at the tip during penetration (basically sharpening themselves as they go) while tungsten mushrooms. This would give DU a bit of an advantage.

But, most KE penetrators lose ballistic stability when they make contact. This would reduce the DU’s advantage as both type of ammo would start to tumble.


----------



## MilEME09

McG said:


> Apparently DU rounds experience a shearing or ablation at the tip during penetration (basically sharpening themselves as they go) while tungsten mushrooms. This would give DU a bit of an advantage.
> 
> But, most KE penetrators lose ballistic stability when they make contact. This would reduce the DU’s advantage as both type of ammo would start to tumble.


That said there was a case in Iraq of a Bradley taking out a Iraqi T-72 with the 25mm, which shows that unupgraded tanks, without additional armour are very much going to have a bad day with Bradley in town. T-62's, older 72s and 80s likely will suffer heavy casualties


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> That said there was a case in Iraq of a Bradley taking out a Iraqi T-72 with the 25mm, which shows that unupgraded tanks, without additional armour are very much going to have a bad day with Bradley in town. T-62's, older 72s and 80s likely will suffer heavy casualties


You mean the ERA filled with old egg crates isn’t going to help RuAF armour? 😉


----------



## AmmoTech90

Good2Golf said:


> You mean the ERA filled with old egg crates isn’t going to help RuAF armour? 😉


And ERA against AP is meh. Magic egg crates not withstanding.


----------



## Skysix

brihard said:


> Out of POMCUS? THAT’s kind of a big deal, I think? That’s drawing down immediately available war stock.
> 
> Forgot to ask earlier- 25mm; is there much real armour penetration difference between APFSDS-DU vs APFSDS-T? Or does US just not use or stock the latter much because they have DU?


Short term, yes. While the more updated replacements are shipped over from CONUS. A win/win as US does not have to upgrade that equipment or ship the older units back to long term storage or Guard units


----------



## Skysix

brihard said:


> It would be interesting to know how much work is going on at Sierra and other army depots to bring kit from long term storage to operational state.


Watch the railheads for empty flatcars, and the lines for trains at night. Likely the most accurate non humint assessment if 24/7 with a remote internet camera. Use open source sat imagrey. Monitor activity on feeder roads of workers (more or bigger shifts?) and further out commercial truck traffic on feeder highways with components or supplies from known manufacturers. Private pilot overflights or mid altitude nearby flights. Drones etc

Be assurred the opposition will be trying to do the same so if blue forces are on the ball the wireless/cell towers in areas with good views should be monitored and SIM's tracked and investigated. Movements will be timed to avoid satellites as much as possible and local LEO primed to watch for observers in nearby depot access or rail crossing areas. New NOTAMS with low altitude restrictions etc.

In short, common sense low grade sympathiser (spy) stuff.


----------



## Skysix

Is it only me that thinks there "might" have been a bunch of Ukrainian tourists on holiday in the US visiting the Museum of the plains and the Commanche Casino since mid September whose 3 month visas are about to expire (at about the same time a battery needs to be picked up in Poland?)


----------



## Maxman1

brihard said:


> Why? 25mm is a great gun, and proven against Soviet armour. Why frig with something that works well and can be used immediately?



I wasn't suggesting modifying the ones to be donated to Ukraine. Rather, I was wondering if a 76mm armed Bradley variant would be useful.

There's another vehicle, the General Dynamics Griffon II, selected last June under the Mobile Protected Firepower program and to be introduced soon. It will be armed with a NATO 105mm tank cannon, the M35. It is best described as a light tank. I was also thinking that would make a 76mm armed Bradley pointless.


----------



## GR66

Maxman1 said:


> I wasn't suggesting modifying the ones to be donated to Ukraine. Rather, I was wondering if a 76mm armed Bradley variant would be useful.
> 
> There's another vehicle, the General Dynamics Griffon II, selected last June under the Mobile Protected Firepower program and to be introduced soon. It will be armed with a NATO 105mm tank cannon, the M35. It is best described as a light tank. I was also thinking that would make a 76mm armed Bradley pointless.


The highlighed part will cause heads to explode.  It's a direct fire support weapon for the IBCTs.  Any similarities to actual tanks, living or dead are purely coincidental as they say on TV.


----------



## CBH99

GR66 said:


> The highlighed part will cause heads to explode.  It's a direct fire support weapon for the IBCTs.  Any similarities to actual tanks, living or dead are purely coincidental as they say on TV.


Looks like a great piece of kit!  

What was old is new again… looks like the eager cub of 2 proud Abram’s parents.


----------



## MilEME09

Video of recovery operation of a flipped tank, doesn't look like destroyed, driver clearly wasn't paying attention.


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1612115096997662720


----------



## KevinB

Probably a good thread split on the Griffin II as it’s drifted past Ukraine


----------



## Zipperhead99

Of course, it would depend on German approval





						Poland considers the option to deliver their Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine | Defense News January 2023 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2023 | Archive News year
					

Polish Government is considering the request of Ukraine to have more main battle tanks with the possible sending of Leopard 2 Main Battle Tanks coming from the Polish army military inventory.




					www.armyrecognition.com
				









						Finland is ready to supply Ukraine with Leopard 2 MBTs main battle tanks | Defense News January 2023 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2023 | Archive News year
					

Antti Häkkänen Chairman of the Finnish Defense Committee and member of the Finnish Parliament said that Finland is ready to supply Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine.




					www.armyrecognition.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson

GR66 said:


> The highlighed part will cause heads to explode.  It's a direct fire support weapon for the IBCTs.  Any similarities to actual tanks, living or dead are purely coincidental as they say on TV.


When they have produced more than 50 General Dynamics Griffon II, give me a call. The US Army "light tank" programs have been the closest thing to a perpetual motion machine with no obvious output in the last 40+ years.


----------



## brihard

Yeah, I suspect the light tank thing is mostly about giving more firepower to light formations, probably with the last war in mind… I think there’s gonna be a major revisiting of force structure concepts now. A lot of ground up assessment needs to be done on what Ukraine has proven about what mobility, married to what protection, to what weapons, and to what sensors will be needed for various roles. And to assume that adversaries will be doing the same. Will light tanks still be a perceived need? Or will they be adequately protected for the employment of the type of armament they bring to the fight?


----------



## Skysix

Re: Russia's veto in the security council. A suggestion

Phase 1: change the rules so that nobody can vote on a security council motion that is directed against them specifically (including all security council members).

Phase 2: Eliminate the permanant security council seat veto as a concept since as more nations become nuclear capable the notion becomes unfair unless it is expanded for Israel, North Korea, India, Pakistan (and the former Soviet states that currently have nuclear weapons).

Phase 3: create a suspension mechanism for security council voting priviledges that removes it for a set (repeatable) period for gross violations of the UN charter until the violations have ceased.

Phase 4: acknoweledge that Russia is not the USSR and thus the direct succession is invalid. This step is moot if all the other former nuclear capable Soviet states are added to the security council. If not then all the former Soviet states that are still nuclear capable (including Russia) share the USSR seat rotationaly, changing annually.


----------



## Skysix

brihard said:


> Will light tanks still be a perceived need?


Sure, why not? In fact needed more than heavy tanks since as cheap top attack smart fire and forget man portable AT missiles proliferate the extra armour, caliber weight (and cost) of MBT's start to become limiting when compared to a mix of LT, IFV and SPG.


----------



## Kirkhill

brihard said:


> Yeah, I suspect the light tank thing is mostly about giving more firepower to light formations, probably with the last war in mind… I think there’s gonna be a major revisiting of force structure concepts now. A lot of ground up assessment needs to be done on what Ukraine has proven about what mobility, married to what protection, to what weapons, and to what sensors will be needed for various roles. And to assume that adversaries will be doing the same. Will light tanks still be a perceived need? Or will they be adequately protected for the employment of the type of armament they bring to the fight?



Or will unmanned platforms carrying heavy weapons be what is necessary for a light formation's fire support?  What is the speed of manoeuvre?


----------



## Eaglelord17

Skysix said:


> Re: Russia's veto in the security council. A suggestion
> 
> Phase 1: change the rules so that nobody can vote on a security council motion that is directed against them specifically (including all security council members).
> 
> Phase 2: Eliminate the permanant security council seat veto as a concept since as more nations become nuclear capable the notion becomes unfair unless it is expanded for Israel, North Korea, India, Pakistan (and the former Soviet states that currently have nuclear weapons).
> 
> Phase 3: create a suspension mechanism for security council voting priviledges that removes it for a set (repeatable) period for gross violations of the UN charter until the violations have ceased.
> 
> Phase 4: acknoweledge that Russia is not the USSR and thus the direct succession is invalid. This step is moot if all the other former nuclear capable Soviet states are added to the security council. If not then all the former Soviet states that are still nuclear capable (including Russia) share the USSR seat rotationaly, changing annually.


Here is the issue with those changes
1: The whole point in the veto is to prevent issues they don't want to go against them from going against them.
2: Not going to happen, the whole point was to lock in the major powers of WWII as the leaders and give them control, not to fairly and equally share power. Nothing to do with nukes, when the UN was created only one nation was nuclear capable. 
3: Good luck again, the UN is more about certain countries retaining power than equitably sharing it
4: That is the only one capable of possibly happening as the constitution is clear that the USSR is the permanent security council member, and the USSR no longer exists.

Basically the UN isn't about uniting anything, it is about a few distinct nations using it for direct power and control. It is a corrupt organization which is flawed from the onset. The only real way to rectify it would be to do a completely separate organization as otherwise someone in the security council will veto any major changes as it isn't in their interest (US included).


----------



## Colin Parkinson

As much as I despise the UN, it does act as a place where all parties can mingle and meet. I suspect the most important work is done quietly in back rooms.


----------



## Kirkhill

Skysix said:


> Sure, why not? In fact needed more than heavy tanks since as cheap top attack smart fire and forget man portable AT missiles proliferate the extra armour, caliber weight (and cost) of MBT's start to become limiting when compared to a mix of LT, IFV and SPG.



The 105mm Light Gun M119/L118 has a total mass, including trails, wheels and platform, of 1858 kg.

If you removed the trails, wheels and platform what weight is left.  Something about 1 tonne?

Could a one tonne gun be mounted on a Wiesel Optionally Manned Weapons Carrier and achieve a load that could be slung by a CH-148/CH-147 class helicopter?






Mass1,858 kg (4,096 lb)






Mass2.75 t to 4.78 t














						Wiesel AWC - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> The 105mm Light Gun M119/L118 has a total mass, including trails, wheels and platform, of 1858 kg.
> 
> If you removed the trails, wheels and platform what weight is left.  Something about 1 tonne?
> 
> Could a one tonne gun be mounted on a Wiesel Optionally Manned Weapons Carrier and achieve a load that could be slung by a CH-148/CH-147 class helicopter?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Mass1,858 kg (4,096 lb)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Mass2.75 t to 4.78 t
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Wiesel AWC - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org


Recoil would kill the platform. Or it would need spades and then limit the arc and increase weight.


----------



## Kirkhill

@KevinB 

Spades you say?  I'm sure those would never work.


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> @KevinB
> 
> Spades you say?  I'm sure those would never work.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 75821


But why on earth would you make a 105mm SPA? 
   Sure you can make one -  but why.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> But why on earth would you make a 105mm SPA?
> Sure you can make one -  but why.



Because you can climb Mount Everest ....

More importantly it is to explore the full range of potential.  To be honest I would be just as happy with an optionally manned Wiesel 120, but with a full autoloader.

But, if somebody really, really were attached to the 105s, or wanted a 105mm  Direct Fire Support Weapon - alternately known as a Self Propelled Anti-Tank Gun or Sturmgeschutz - a lightweight MGS with zero onboard crew - then I think there is reason to believe that a light infantry force could have a heavier DFS weapon available to it without having to go up to the 10 to 60 tonne range of vehicles.

Austria's Noricum mounted the Royal Ordnance 105mm L7 tank rifle on a towed carriage (with spades) for use as an anti-tank gun. It worked until replaced by missiles.   That gun is the same one, I believe, that was found in the Stryker MGS.

So how heavy a carriage do you really need?  And how big a motor?


----------



## FJAG

KevinB said:


> But why on earth would you make a 105mm SPA?
> Sure you can make one -  but why.


Because you can.   

Seriously though; with the right configuration you could easily make it airmobile to bring in close to an airmobile/airborne assault force.  And spades are the answer. The M119 still has a role in those and other light IBCTs. To make one air transportable and then give it the ability to reposition itself is an advantage - right now they do that in combination with a HMMWV. One consideration though is where does the crew and ammo travel. You'd need at least one additional limber vehicle per gun.

🍻


----------



## FJAG

Kirkhill said:


> That gun is the same one, I believe, that was found in the Stryker MGS.


Not quite. The tube was the British designed L7 but the gun itself was built in the US with an American designed mount, recoil and breach system.



> M68 (tank gun) - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org



The FH 70 motor is for slow speed work bringing the gun into and out of action. It ain't no SP.

🍻


----------



## Kirkhill

FJAG said:


> Not quite. The tube was the British designed L7 but the gun itself was built in the US with an American designed mount, recoil and breach system.






FJAG said:


> The FH 70 motor is for slow speed work bringing the gun into and out of action. It ain't no SP.
> 
> 🍻



Got it that it ain't no SP.

But Wiesel, with its 86 HP engine on a 3 to 5 ton vehicle results in 17 to 28 HP per ton with speeds up to 70 km/h.   A credible platform to direct remotely, either on a tether or wirelessly.


----------



## Zipperhead99

This video is an hour long, but nicely explains how economies go on a war footing and why Russia has not collapsed despite all the sanctions thrown at it by the West


----------



## Kirkhill

A civilian volunteer....supporting from her home in America.
I couldn't decide which was the better tale.






						Measuring Time
					

A Ukrainian teenager who supplies a unit of tankers near Kharkiv told me “Ukrainians don’t measure time in months or days. We measure it in…




					medium.com
				









						The Things We Don’t Carry
					

I wrote this about how it feels to evacuate injured military volunteers in Ukraine and see the affects of war firsthand.




					medium.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Zipperhead99 said:


> This video is an hour long, but nicely explains how economies go on a war footing and why Russia has not collapsed despite all the sanctions thrown at it by the West


Watched last night, excellent as always. $ years of war broke the British Empire and exhausted the Soviets for number of years. As this video points out, it will be a victory or defeat based on moral and human capital issues. The Russians appear to have recently gained an upper hand in Bakumat, but I wonder what the human cost was and can they continue to do it. If Russia does not defeat Ukraine or bring it to it's knees, there is a going to be a very human backlash from the Russian Veterans in the years to come.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Colin Parkinson said:


> Watched last night, excellent as always. $ years of war broke the British Empire and exhausted the Soviets for number of years. As this video points out, it will be a victory or defeat based on moral and human capital issues. The Russians appear to have recently gained an upper hand in Bakumat, but I wonder what the human cost was and can they continue to do it. If Russia does not defeat Ukraine or bring it to it's knees, there is a going to be a very human backlash from the Russian Veterans in the years to come.



“An army cannot be built without repression. The commander will always find it necessary to place the soldier between the possibility that death lies ahead and the certainty that it lies behind.”

*Leon Trotsky*


----------



## ueo

Colin Parkinson said:


> As much as I despise the UN, it does act as a place where all parties can mingle and meet. I suspect the most important work is done quietly in back rooms.


Livr the vida loca on someone elses chit.


----------



## CBH99

Colin Parkinson said:


> Watched last night, excellent as always. $ years of war broke the British Empire and exhausted the Soviets for number of years. As this video points out, it will be a victory or defeat based on moral and human capital issues. The Russians appear to have recently gained an upper hand in Bakumat, but I wonder what the human cost was and can they continue to do it. If Russia does not defeat Ukraine or bring it to it's knees, there is a going to be a very human backlash from the Russian Veterans in the years to come.


No world leader can survive a nation full of angry & grieving parents.

Putin has set Russia up for decades of unneeded domestic turmoil as a result of this, on all fronts.


----------



## Good2Golf

Did anyone have ‘2nd-world nuclear power comes to aid of Ukraine” on their bingo sheet?


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1612808090335809537


----------



## Czech_pivo

Good2Golf said:


> Did anyone have ‘2nd-world nuclear power comes to aid of Ukraine” on their bingo sheet?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1612808090335809537


All hand made with love in Peshawar......lol.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

KevinB said:


> But why on earth would you make a 105mm SPA?
> Sure you can make one -  but why.


Because we will only buy (and that's if we are lucky) a fraction of the 155 SPG's that we need and the Reserves still need tubes, as very shortly they will have nothing. (I realize for someone that spent a fair bit of time with the Yanks that the term "nothing" is a tad foreign)


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Czech_pivo said:


> All hand made with love in Peshawar......lol.


Khyber Pass ammuntion...


----------



## daftandbarmy

Colin Parkinson said:


> Khyber Pass ammuntion...



I have used Pakistani ammunition in the past (checks fingers) successfully


----------



## KevinB

daftandbarmy said:


> I have used Pakistani ammunition in the past (checks fingers) successfully


We had about 1m rounds of 9mm of what we called Pakchester - it was fantastic training ammo for IA's and Stoppages -
  DoS got it out of Pakistan for the Embassy, probably 20% the rounds seem to be filled with sand not any powder, and a good 30% of the primers where dead.



Colin Parkinson said:


> Because we will only buy (and that's if we are lucky) a fraction of the 155 SPG's that we need and the Reserves still need tubes, as very shortly they will have nothing. (I realize for someone that spent a fair bit of time with the Yanks that the term "nothing" is a tad foreign)


Get a M119A3 and call it a day, you can even tow it in a Milverado 
  SPA's are significantly more $$$ than towed guns, and getting a 105mm SPA is just a really bad business concept for the RCA.
 You'd end up with 1/4rd (if lucky) of the C3's you have, and not have a viable deployable system anyway.


----------



## RaceAddict

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1612337912091217920








						Confirmed! Russia uses its Su-57 Felon stealth fighters against Ukraine
					

The UK Ministry of Defense confirmed via satellite photos that Russia is using five fifth-generation Su-57 Felon (NATO codename) fighters against targets in Ukr




					www.aviacionline.com
				






> According to the UK MoD, the Su-57’s missions are likely limited to launching long-range air-to-surface or air-to-air missiles against Ukrainian targets, from the safety of Russian airspace; for fear that, due to combat action or a technical malfunction, one of its most advanced combat aircraft may end up crashing in enemy territory and its sensitive technology may be seriously compromised.
> 
> Another argument put forward by the British Ministry of Defense is that the possibility of losing an Su-57 during war operations would seriously damage the reputation of Russian military technology (already hit hard since the start of the conflict), also negatively impacting their export expectations. This would be symptomatic of Russia’s continued risk aversion in using its air force in the war.


----------



## KevinB

RaceAddict said:


> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1612337912091217920
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Confirmed! Russia uses its Su-57 Felon stealth fighters against Ukraine
> 
> 
> The UK Ministry of Defense confirmed via satellite photos that Russia is using five fifth-generation Su-57 Felon (NATO codename) fighters against targets in Ukr
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.aviacionline.com


If ever a target that needed ATACMS existed…


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> If ever a target that needed ATACMS existed…



Or SOF...


----------



## KevinB

daftandbarmy said:


> Or SOF...


Bit of a trek though.


----------



## KevinB

Some careless smoking would be upsetting wouldn’t it.


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> Bit of a trek though.
> 
> View attachment 75847
> View attachment 75848



But there are Shamans!



			https://twitter.com/i/events/1541129544710688769?lang=en


----------



## MilEME09

Canada buying 1 NASAMS battery fir Ukraine

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1612887140781670401


----------



## KevinB

France and Poland push Germany to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine
					

If Germany relents and sends Leopard tanks, it is likely several other EU countries will too.




					www.politico.eu


----------



## GR66

MilEME09 said:


> Canada buying 1 NASAMS battery fir Ukraine
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1612887140781670401


Since we're already going to be set up as a vendor for the NASAMS we might as well just go ahead and order a couple for ourselves while we're at it...


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## Good2Golf

GR66 said:


> Since we're already going to be set up as a vendor for the NASAMS we might as well just go ahead and order a couple for ourselves while we're at it...


…and also get a couple P-8s for ourselves when we buy some for Ukraine in a few months… 😉


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## Czech_pivo

GR66 said:


> Since we're already going to be set up as a vendor for the NASAMS we might as well just go ahead and order a couple for ourselves while we're at it...


I wouldn't be shocked if the Americans gave us the 'friends and family' price and we in turn pass it along to the Ukrainians but announce the value of the weapons system at the full retail price.....buy low and sell high, lol.


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## Colin Parkinson




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## Colin Parkinson

Claim that Soldar has fallen


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## YZT580

KevinB said:


> Some careless smoking would be upsetting wouldn’t it.
> View attachment 75849


Too bad that The Old Dog is purely fiction


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## Kirkhill

> SPA's are significantly more $$$ than towed guns



There you go thinking like a Yank again.  If there isn't enough money then print some.   

Why do you find it necessary to pile on bits and pieces when you can achieve 80% of the objective at 20% of the price without them?












And while pondering this concept of mounting a cannon on an autonomous Wiesel I got to thinking there was a more interesting model to work with.













> The rifled gun, a Bofors 105 mm L74 with a barrel length of 62 Calibers, was able to use the same ammunition as the British Royal Ordnance L7, and would be *equipped with an autoloader allowing a rate of fire of one round every three seconds*, also allowing the crew to be reduced to two; a gunner/driver and the commander (most designs of the era used a crew of four), *with one person being able to handle all functions of the tank from the ordinary position due to duplicate controls.*



*Here is the difficult way to supply a support weapon with ammunition. (MGS)



*

Here is the easy way - AMX-13.












A remotely operated  Wiesel with a Light Gun equipped with an AMX13 autoloader and 12 ready rounds.  Displace and reload out of contact or at least undercover.

Besides, it seems that you get about 2 to 5 minutes these days before you have to bugger off in any event.


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## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> Canada buying 1 NASAMS battery fir Ukraine
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1612887140781670401



#3Ametoo


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## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> Canada buying 1 NASAMS battery fir Ukraine
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1612887140781670401


Waaah!!!


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## McG

Signs that ammunition supplies are running tight for Russia?








						Russian artillery fire down nearly 75%, US officials say, in latest sign of struggles for Moscow | CNN Politics
					

As Russia's invasion of Ukraine enters its 11th month, US and Ukrainian officials tell CNN that Russia's artillery fire is down dramatically from its wartime high, in some places by as much as 75%.




					www.cnn.com


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## Skysix

YZT580 said:


> Too bad that The Old Dog is purely fiction


A Lithuanian Tin Man would be useful too


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## Skysix

Deleted duplicate post


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## Kirkhill

Yes?  No?  Maybe? FWIW.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/108glbn


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## Kirkhill

We've become used to drones dropping grenades...

This one had a more important mission - dropping off a cup of sugar for a brew up.


__
		https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/108o6x3


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## SeaKingTacco

Good2Golf said:


> Did anyone have ‘2nd-world nuclear power comes to aid of Ukraine” on their bingo sheet?
> 
> 
> __ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1612808090335809537


Nope. Did not see that one coming.

Mind you, if someone is running around South Asia with a big enough cheque book, all things are possible…


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## MilEME09

Colin Parkinson said:


> Claim that Soldar has fallen


battle seems to be on going, photos wagner claimed to be the salt mines were actually in the Gypsum mines near Bakmut, some evidence suggests ukrainian forces still hold parts of the west and north of the town. In related news a UAF capture or kill team infiltrated russian lines and captured the commander of Russian Chechen SOF. video of the raid is all over telegram right now, they caught a big fish.


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## KevinB

Well tanks are on the menu 
Germany released the floodgates
  Poland and Finland are sending Leo2's - and apparently more countries with Leo2's to follow
  Britain is sending Challenger 2's


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## GR66

KevinB said:


> Well tanks are on the menu
> Germany released the floodgates
> Poland and Finland are sending Leo2's - and apparently more countries with Leo2's to follow
> Britain is sending Challenger 2's


Hope they're sending tank haulers too...it's a long way to Moscow!


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